Today’s News 24th April 2018

  • Turkish President Erdogan Blasts The US For "Sending 5,000 Trucks Loaded With Weapons To Northern Syria"

    On Saturday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan sharply criticized the United States Armed Forces and its N.A.T.O. (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) allies for supplying weapons to Kurdish militias in Syria for free, while refusing to sell defense hardware to Turkey.

    “We cannot buy weapons from the US with our money, but unfortunately, the US and coalition forces give these weapons, this ammunition, to terrorist organizations for free,” Erdoğan stated in an interview on Turkish NTV news channel.

    “So where does the threat come from? It comes primarily from strategic partners,” he said, warning that Washington continues to pump in truckloads of weapons into northern Syria.

    President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appearing as a guest of the Political Affairs Special program on NTV news channel over the weekend. (Source:NTV)

    During the interview, the Turkish president unloaded a bombshell that most Americans are entirely oblivious to — Washington and the Trump administration are deploying thousands of trucks jammed packed with guns and ammunition to Syrian terrorist.

    The United States has recently “sent 5,000 trucks loaded with weapons to northern Syria,” he said.

    Meanwhile, Trump took to Twitter on April 14 with a triumphant message in less than 280 characters after the US-led precision strikes in Syria hit alleged chemical weapons manufacturing sites earlier this month. “A perfectly executed strike,” he bragged, ending the tweet with a foolish phrase: “Mission accomplished!”

    The tweet eerily echoed that famous phrase of a former president, George W. Bush, who announced “mission accomplished” in 2003 to mark the start of the Iraq War, also called Second Persian Gulf War, that would continue for another 8-years until 2011. Even though Trump could have been using the phrase in a different context — the recent delivery of 5,000 trucks packed with military weapons and ammunition via Washington to terrorist organizations in Syria, indicates that fight in Syria is far from over.

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    In recent times, Washington has supplied weapons to the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) in the campaign against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). The support “infuriated Ankara, which sees the YPG as the Syrian branch of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK),” said Press TV.

    Erdogan accused Washington of building a “terror army” in Syria, which this could very well be true — considering the weapons convoy, he alleges…

    On January 20, Turkey launched an operation against the YPG in the Syrian city of Afrin. The cross-border invasion of Syria, dubbed Operation Olive Branch, has severely strained relations between Washington and Ankara.

    As the situation between both countries becomes dire, Ankara has gravitated towards Russia and Iran to ensure a smooth political transition in Syria, leaving Washington out of the discussions. Ankara has even decided to purchase arms from Russia, including the S-400 air defense systems, which has made the country vulnerable to Western sanctions. Assistant Secretary of State Wess Mitchell recently warned, noting that “it is in the American national interest to see Turkey remain strategically and politically aligned with the West.”

    “The ease with which Turkey brokered arrangements with the Russian military to facilitate the launch of its Operation Olive Branch in the Afrin district –arrangements to which America was not privy– is gravely concerning,” he said. “Turkey lately has increased its engagement with Russia and Iran.”

    Nevertheless, Marcus Montgomery, a fellow at the Arab Center Washington DC, has warned: “The Trump administration do not seem to understand the gravity of Turkey’s concerns.”

    Robert Stephen Ford, a retired American diplomat who served as the United States Ambassador to Syria from 2010 to 2014, echoed Montgomery’s comments about the Trump administration’s progress to ease the worries of Ankara.

    “The American position in northern Syria is strategically foolish and operationally dangerous,” Ford told Middle East Eye news portal, which he is referring to Washington’s decision to arm terror organizations in Syria.

    While President Trump has told the American people the U.S. would “be coming out of Syria very soon,” there are new claims from Turkish President Erdoğan that Washington is preparing for further conflict by resupplying their proxy armies with more than 5,000 truckloads of weapons.

  • Merkel Caught In Energy Conundrum Over Germany's Future

    Authored by Tom Luongo,

    The nominal U.S. President, Donald Trump, will meet with the two main European leaders this week with the goal of pushing the President off his position to end the Iran Nuclear Deal, or JCPOA. But it is the bigger issues of energy security that will be the real focus.

    From soy-boy Emmanuel Macron of France to the Gelded One of Germany, Angela Merkel, putting the European Union back in its place is one of the few things that Trump may still be able to affect the trajectory of when it comes to foreign policy.

    He has no control over Syria, having ceded his authority to the neoconservative crazies who have been wrong about everything since the fall of the Soviet Union.  I also don’t think he has much control over negotiations with North Korea.

    While everyone on the right keeps talking about how he keeps winning, after the disaster of his strikes on Syria, why would anyone take him seriously during Korean demilitarization talks?

    Does anyone think now Donald Trump has the leeway to negotiate an end to the Korean War and make those terms stick?

    And if you do, do you think Xi or Putin or Kim himself do?

    EU Fracturing

    And that brings me back to Macron and Merkel.  They were split on striking Syria.  It’s obvious that Macron saw this as an opportunity to up his ‘street cred’ with the globalist oligarchy, cozying up to the U.S. and U.K. and finish what his predecessors started in Syria decades ago.

    Macron is positioning himself to replace Merkel as the de facto leader of the EU. He’s been groomed for this position as Merkel’s time on the world stage comes to an end.

    While a terminally-weakened Merkel, fielding off political and social unrest at home, saw through the cheap theatre of the U.K.’s machinations to further isolate Russia, i.e. Skripal and the false flag in Syria, refusing to support airstrikes.

    Both leaders have raised Trump’s ire.  Merkel over not being a good NATO partner and Macron for over-stating his influence with Trump for staying in Syria.

    So, suffice it to say there may not be any “beautiful chocolate cake” on this diplomatic table.

    In fact, the divisions over many issues may be deep enough that we begin to see real movement from Merkel away from the U.S. and towards the hated Russia.

    It has been a staple of geopolitical maneuvering for the past couple hundred years to keep Germany and Russia from forming any sort of real political and economic alliance.  And up to now Merkel has been the good soldier, working to align Germany and the EU with the goals of the globalist oligarchy that Trump has been so vocal in wanting to curtail.

    This is the basis for their antipathy.

    But, her days of being the leader of that front are approaching their end.  Deep divisions have opened up in German politics and her coalition with the Social Democrats is thin to the point of being anorexic.

    New SPD leader Andrea Nehles is going to be a handful for Merkel.  Merkel won’t have a whipped hound as coalition partner for the next four years.  So, expect a lot more, dare I say, “Germany First,” from Germany.

    And this will lead to problems with Trump and his “Empire First’ cabinet.

    Drill, Baby Drill

    Because where Merkel and Trump fundamentally disagree is allowing Russia any more access to the European gas market.  This is one of the ways in which his neocon Iagos can convince him so easily on staying in the Middle East.

    All they have to do is whisper, “Energy security” and “billions in natural gas revenues” and Trump makes the wrong decision every time.

    Merkel knows that Germany’s path to independence lies through the Nordstream 2 pipeline as well as extricating itself from the mess that is Ukraine.  Energy independence for Germany means Nordstream 2, now that they’ve shuttered their nuclear reactors and the coup in Ukraine has failed to produce leverage over Russia in gas markets.

    But, no one in the U.S wants this pipeline built and we’ve threatened the world with nuclear annihilation over it.  And that we’ve expended so much political capital in attempting to stop it tells you just how important it is to power brokers in D.C. and London.

    The realities are not lost on Trump who has a domestic oil and gas industry to build new markets for while maintaining control over European Union policy.

    That’s the song that’s been sung to him over Syria.  Don’t kid yourself.

    Because the U.S. ousting Assad in Syria delivers a devastating blow to Russia, Iran and China while re-opening pipeline access to Europe per the original plan.

    And that’s why Merkel’s abstention on Syria was so significant.  It is also why Nordstream will be the most heated discussion between them next week.  Not Iran’s nuclear program, but how the U.S. can craft policy that brings ‘energy security’ to Europe which cuts out Russia and curtails China’s plans for central Asian development and integration.

    Merkel in the Middle

    In other words, same policy, different president.

    To this point Merkel has tried to walk the fine line between the loyal NATO/US satrap and unwilling partner in antagonizing the Russians over energy needs.  But, Trump has been more than clear in his willingness to screw over all of Europe and Asia just to sell a few tankers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Poland at prices that ensure Europe’s anti-competitiveness for a generation.

    On this idea I don’t think he disagrees with the neocons at all.

    Because in the end Trump is a mercantilist, just like I said before he was elected.  And while he talks a good game about better deals for the U.S., what he really means is a cheap dollar, protection tariffs and mafioso foreign policy to sell half as many goods at twice the price.

    Like all mercantilist policies, it’ll work for a while.  And Europe’s own fecklessness has brought it to this position where it’s vulnerable to it.  When the sovereign debt crisis begins to hit Europe, it will need the U.S. to help manage it, if possible.

    And that’s why Merkel will say nothing that will change the situation one whit.

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  • 70% Of Taiwanese "Willing To Fight" China

    Just days after China launched its “largest naval drill in 600 years”  in the Taiwan Strait, The Taipei Times reports that 67.7 percent of respondents said they were willing to go to war to defend Taiwan if China launched an armed assault on the nation to force unification.

    The survey, released by the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy last week, also showed the number of people willing to fight to prevent unification with China rose to 70.3 percent among respondents aged 20 to 39, the survey showed.

    The foundation president Hsu Szu-chien told a news conference in Taipei that it considers it a fitting time to pose the question as the Chinese military has over the past few years been increasing activity near Taiwan.

    94 percent of people said that living in a democratic society is “important,” of which 65.8 percent said it is “very important.”

    In addition, 76.4 percent of people agreed with the statement: “Democracy, despite its flaws, is still the best system,” the poll showed.

    “If we factor in questions about whether young people support democracy, we discover that the more people support democracy, the more willing they are to defend Taiwan in the event of an invasion by China,” Hsu said.

    “I think it is our democratic lifestyle and values that people want to protect.”

    Earlier this month, the Trump administration cleared various American manufacturers for business to sell submarine technology to Taiwan, which deeply angered Beijing.

    “The live-fire drills would almost certainly be intended to be seen as a response to the Trump administration’s new initiatives over Taiwan,” Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute at the University of London, said.

    “It is probably intended more for Taipei than Washington as the military exercise cannot intimidate the US but can get Taipei to think of the security dilemma, which is that the more Taipei seeks to secure US support, the more Beijing will do to make Taipei feel less secure.”

    Ni Feng, director of the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the parallel events of the Syrian crisis and the Taiwan Strait war drill is coincidental.

    “Beijing needs to send its warning to Taipei on time if Bolton wants to visit Taipei, which will obviously be a breakthrough [in the US-Taiwan relationship],” he said.

    Yun Sun, director of the China programme at the Stimson Centre in Washington, agreed with the other military analyst, stating the Trump administration is playing a dangerous game “using Taiwan as a potential bargaining chip with China.”

    “With Trump’s love for transactions and linking issues together, it is conceivable that he is using Taiwan as a potential bargaining chip with China,” she said.

    That move increases “the possibility of an armed conflict between the US and [mainland] China out of miscalculation; and it creates an illusion that Taiwan is up for negotiation”.

    “For many policy experts, US support for Taiwan is warranted, and should be independent from political or economic deals [between Washington and Beijing].”

    Given the Taiwanese willingness to fight, the threat of World War III being sparked from this conflict continue to rise…

  • The Great Game Comes To Syria

    Authored by Conn Hallinan via Counterpunch.org,

    An unusual triple alliance is emerging from the Syrian war, one that could alter the balance of power in the Middle East, unhinge the NATO alliance, and complicate the Trump administration’s designs on Iran. It might also lead to yet another double cross of one of the region’s largest ethnic groups, the Kurds.

    However, the “troika alliance” – Turkey, Russia and Iran – consists of three countries that don’t much like one another, have different goals, and whose policies are driven by a combination of geo-global goals and internal politics.

      In short, “fragile and complicated” doesn’t even begin to describe it.

    How the triad might be affected by the joint U.S., French and British attack on Syria is unclear, but in the long run the alliance will likely survive the uptick of hostilities.

    But common ground was what came out of the April 4 meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Meeting in Ankara, the parties pledged to support the “territorial integrity” of Syria, find a diplomatic end to the war, and to begin a reconstruction of a Syria devastated by seven years of war. While Russia and Turkey explicitly backed the UN-sponsored talks in Geneva, Iran was quiet on that issue, preferring a regional solution without “foreign plans.”

    “Common ground,” however, doesn’t mean the members of the “troika” are on the same page.

    Turkey’s interests are both internal and external. The Turkish Army is currently conducting two military operations in northern Syria, Olive Branch and Euphrates Shield, aimed at driving the mainly Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) out of land that borders Turkey. But those operations are also deeply entwined with Turkish politics.

    Erdogan’s internal support has been eroded by a number of factors:  exhaustion with the ongoing state of emergency imposed following the 2016 attempted coup, a shaky economy, and a precipitous fall in the value of the Turkish pound. Rather than waiting for 2019, Erdogan called for snap elections this past week and beating up on the Kurds is always popular with right-wing Turkish nationalists. Erdogan needs all the votes he can get to imlement his newly minted executive presidency that will give him virtually one-man rule.

    To be part of the alliance, however, Erdogan has had to modify his goal of getting rid of Syrian President Bashar Assad and to agree—at this point, anyhow—to eventually withdraw from areas in northern Syria seized by the Turkish Army. Russia and Iran have called for turning over the regions conquered by the Turks to the Syrian Army.

    Moscow’s goals are to keep a foothold in the Middle East with its only base, Tartus, and to aid its long-time ally, Syria. The Russians are not deeply committed to Assad personally, but they want a friendly government in Damascus. They also want to destroy al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, which have caused Moscow considerable trouble in the Caucasus.

    Russia also wouldn’t mind driving a wedge between Ankara and NATO. After the U.S., Turkey has NATO’s second largest army. NATO broke a 1989 agreement not to recruit former members of the Russian-dominated Warsaw Pact into NATO as a quid pro quo for the Soviets withdrawing from Eastern Europe. But since the Yugoslav War in 1999 the alliance has marched right up to the borders of Russia. The 2008 war with Georgia and 2014 seizure of the Crimea were largely a reaction to what Moscow sees as an encirclement strategy by its adversaries.

    Turkey has been at odds with its NATO allies around a dispute between Greece and Cyprus over sea-based oil and gas resources, and it recently charged two Greek soldiers who violated the Turkish border with espionage.  Erdogan is also angry that European Union countries refuse to extradite Turkish soldiers and civilians who he claims helped engineer the 2016 coup against him.  While most NATO countries condemned Moscow for the recent attack on two Russians in Britain, the Turks pointedly did not.

    Turkish relations with Russia have an economic side as well. Ankara want a natural gas pipeline from Russia, has broken ground on a $20 billion Russian nuclear reactor, and just shelled out $2.5 billion for Russia’s S-400 anti-aircraft system.

    The Russians do not support Erdogan’s war on the Kurds and have lobbied for the inclusion of Kurdish delegations in negotiations over the future of Syria. But Moscow clearly gave the Turks a green light to attack the Kurdish city of Afrin last month, driving out the YPG that had liberated it from the Islamic State and Turkish-backed al-Qaeda groups. A number of Kurds charge that Moscow has betrayed them.

    The question now is, will the Russians stand aside if the Turkish forces move further into Syria and attack the city of Manbij, where the Kurds are allied with U.S. and French forces? And will Erdogan’s hostility to the Kurds lead to an armed clash among three NATO members?

    Such a clash seems unlikely, although the Turks have been giving flamethrower speeches over the past several weeks. “Those who cooperate with terrorists organizations [the YPG] will be targeted by Turkey,” says Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Bekir Bozdag said in a pointed reference to France’s support for the Kurds. Threatening the French is one thing, picking a fight with the U.S. military quite another.

    Of course, if President Trump pulls U.S. forces out of Syria, it will be tempting for Turkey to move in. While the “troika alliance” has agreed to Syrian “sovereignty,” that won’t stop Ankara from meddling in Kurdish affairs. The Turks are already appointing governors and mayors for the areas in Syria they have occupied.

    Iran’s major concern in Syria is maintaining a buffer between itself and a very aggressive alliance of the U.S., Israel and Saudi Arabia, which seems to be in the preliminary stages of planning a war against the second-largest country in the Middle East.

    Iran is not at all the threat it has been pumped up to be. Its military is miniscule and talk of a so-called “Shiite crescent”—Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon—is pretty much a western invention (although the term was dreamed up by the King of Jordan).

    Tehran has been weakened by crippling sanctions and faces the possibility that Washington will withdraw from the nuclear accord and re-impose yet more sanctions. The appointment of National Security Advisor John Bolton, who openly calls for regime change in Iran, has to have sent a chill down the spines of the Iranians.  What Tehran needs most of all is allies who will shield it from the enmity of the U.S., Israel and Saudi Arabia. In this regard, Turkey and Russia could be helpful.

    Iran has modified its original goals in Syria of a Shiite-dominated regime by agreeing to a “non-sectarian character” for a post-war Syria. Erdogan has also given up on his desire for a Sunni-dominated government in Damascus.

    War with Iran would be catastrophic, an unwinnable conflict that could destabilize the Middle East even more than it is now. It would, however, drive up the price of oil, currently running at around $66 a barrel. Saudi Arabia needs to sell its oil for at least $100 a barrel, or it will very quickly run of money. The on-going quagmire of the Yemen war, the need to diversify the economy, and the growing clamor by young Saudis—70 percent of the population—for jobs requires lots of money, and the current trends in oil pricing are not going to cover the bills.

    War and oil make for odd bedfellows. While the Saudis are doing their best to overthrow the Assad regime and fuel the extremists fighting the Russians, Riyadh is wooing Moscow to sign onto to a long-term OPEC agreement to control oil supplies. That probably won’t happen—the Russians are fine with oil at $50 to $60 a barrel—and are wary of agreements that would restrict their right to develop new oil and gas resources. The Saudi’s jihad on the Iranians has a desperate edge to it, as well it might. The greatest threat to the Kingdom has always come from within.

    The rocks and shoals that can wreck alliances in the Middle East are too numerous to count, and the “troika” is riven with contradictions and conflicting interests. But the war in Syria looks as if it is coming to some kind of resolution, and at this point Iran, Russia and Turkey seem to be the only actors who have a script that goes beyond lobbing cruise missiles at people.

  • Ranked: The Best And Worst State Economies

    On a global scale, the U.S. economy is massive at close to $19 trillion in size.

    However, as Visual Capitalist’s Jeff Desjardins explains below, the United States is also the sum of its parts. America represents the union of 50 states and other jurisdictions such as D.C., and all of these state-level economies have their own unique problems to overcome, drivers of growth, and local resources that factor into their prosperity.

    How can we compare these state economies on an even playing field?

    RANKED: STATE ECONOMIES

    Using absolute numbers, it’s hard to directly compare California ($2.75 trillion GDP, 39.5 million people) to a state like Vermont ($33 billion, 0.6 million people). By leveling the playing field, we can get an idea of how states contrast in terms of relative economic strength that companies and workers would better recognize.

    Today’s infographic uses 27 metrics from WalletHub to rank state economies.

    Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

    These metrics are grouped into three major categories, which are evenly weighted:

    1. Economic Activity: GDP growth, startup activity, exports per capita, and three other metrics

    2. Economic Health: Labor force changes, median household income, unemployment, and 13 other metrics

    3. Innovation Potential: Entrepreneurial activity, R&D investment, patents per capita, and three other metrics

    Note: the full methodology with all 27 factors can be found here.

    Here’s how the rankings shake down, for all 50 state economies and D.C.:

    Topping the list for overall score were the states of Washington, California, and Utah, and the first place state in each major category includes Washington (Economic Activity), Utah (Economic Health), and Massachusetts (Innovation Potential).

    CASE IN POINT

    Looking at statistics and scoring methodologies alone can be a bit esoteric, so let’s look at some individual cases to see some contrast.

    Utah (Rank: #3)
    Utah consistently ranks as one of the top states for business, in the country, as well as a top state for job growth and employment. It’s also pretty unique in that it has a fairly diversified economy, with major sectors in the tourism, agriculture, tech, manufacturing, finance, energy, and mining industries.

    Utah has a higher median household income ($65,977), and a blistering 3.4% employment growth rate.

    Florida (Rank: #22)
    Using this methodology, Florida falls somewhere in the middle of the rankings. The good news is the state has good employment growth (2.9%) and a myriad of thriving industries like aerospace. The bad news? Florida has the second-highest level of poverty in the union at 19%, and it also has a lower median household income ($50,860) than the national average.

    Maine (Rank: #45)
    Economic activity is sluggish in the country’s most northeastern state. With an aging population, slow employment growth (0.8%), and a number of lost manufacturing jobs over the last 15 years, the state is trying to rebound. Maine isn’t helped by having one of the highest tax burdens for its citizens and businesses in the country, either.

  • New Zealand Braces For "Super Gonorrhea": It's A Matter Of "When, Not If"

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    The island nation of New Zealand is bracing itself for what scientists are calling “super gonorrhea.”  They say it is not a matter of ‘if’ the nation will be impacted by the disease, but a matter of ‘when.’

    A historically-resistant strain of gonorrhea has made its way from South East Asia to the United Kingdom and Australia, and experts are warning New Zealand will be struck next by the antibiotic-resistant super-bug gonorrhea strain. It’s in Eastern Australia, and it’s in Queensland, Australia, so those in New Zealand are rightly concerned.

    Last month, it was reported a British man had contracted what was dubbed the world’s ‘worst ever’ case of gonorrhea, that he picked up in southeast Asia. It was the first documented case of the sexually transmitted infection that could not be cured with a combination of standard antibiotics. England’s public health agency even launched an “incident response” after discovering more cases of gonorrhea recently that are resistant to nearly all antibiotics currently available.

    So, how long will it be before it makes its way to New Zealand?

    According to Family Planning’s Christine Roke, “if it isn’t here now, it will be very soon.” Auckland University associate professor of infectious diseases Mark Thomas agrees, telling Morning Reportit’s “almost certain” there will be cases within the next year or two. It’s simply a matter of “who has sex with who,” he said.

    Gonorrhea is caused by the Neisseria gonorrhoeae bacteria. The symptoms of the disease are difficult for men to live with, so most know fairly soon if they’ve contracted the infection. Symptoms can include discolored discharge, stomach pain, various forms of bleeding from the genitalia, discharge or bleeding from the anus and, for the fellas, sore testes. Women often are unaware of an infection, as it normally infects the cervix,which has no sensation. Occasionally you may also get a dry throat if you’ve contracted the bacteria.  Normally, it has been easily treated with antibiotics, however, this new strain, appears to be resistant.

    “The problem with gonorrhea is it’s a very wily bug,” says Roke. “And it’s able to mutate very easily. This leads to developing resistance.” Thomas agreed, adding that it is entirely possible that within the next ten years, humanity will run out of drugs to treat the bacteria. Roke also says that with international travel at the levels it is these days, it’s only a matter of time before someone smuggles the gonorrhea bacteria unintentionally into the country. As invasive as customs can be, New Zealand is not exactly screening for this stuff at the border.

    Thomas said the current test for gonorrhea does not determine if the usual treatment of an injection antibiotic and two oral antibiotic pills will work. He said more resistant strains will require hospitals to administer the necessary antibiotics.

  • US CENTCOM Chief Makes "Secret And Unprecedented" Visit To Israel As Russia Mulls Arming Syria

    Increasingly it appears that the recent US coalition missile strikes on Syria have utterly backfired: instead of weakening Syria or degrading its military capabilities, the attack may have actually served to strengthen Syria’s defenses. 

    Since the massive strike which involved the US, UK, and France launching over 100 cruise missiles, Russia is rumored to be moving forward on delivery of its advanced S-300 missile defense system, which would be a monumental upgrade allowing Syrian defenses to far surpass current capabilities which utilize the Soviet-made S-125 and S-200 air defense systems.

    Crucially, S-300s have a range of up to 150-200 kilometers (or 120 miles), bringing Syrian deterrent reach easily to within Lebanese airspace (as Israel has routinely struck targets inside Syria while firing over “neutral” Lebanese airspace in recent years), and could even extend airspace coverage into Israel itself. 

    Could this be the reason for some major behind-the-scenes diplomatic scrambling?

    Undated file photo of S-300 air defense missiles launched at Ashuluk shooting range in southern Russia.

    On Monday VOA News chief White House correspondent Steve Herman announced that US CENTCOM commander General Joseph Votel is in the midst of “a secret and unprecedented visit to Israel.”

    Knowledge of the “secret” visit was based on exclusive footage broadcast by Israel’s Kann News, which first reported, “the commander of the American Central Command arrived for the first time to Israel, and met with senior security officials, including the Chief of Staff.”

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    No doubt the potential for what weapons experts have commonly described as the “exceptionally advanced” Russian-supplied S-300 in Israel’s backyard is making Tel Aviv and its allies nervous. Israel has repeatedly called delivery of the S-300s a “red line” for which it would act, however, plans for just such a scenario could be hastening.

    Early Monday morning Israel’s Channel 10 senior diplomatic correspondent broke the following, subsequently confirmed in the Times of Israel and Reuters:

    Russian newspaper Kommersant reports that Russia might deliver S-300 anti aircraft missiles to Syria in the very near future in order to defend Damascus & Strategic Syrian army bases from Israel & U.S. airstrikes.

    Kommersant reported Russia will give the S-300 missiles to Syria for free from Russian army supplies as part of its military assistance to Syria. This way the delivery could be done very quickly.

    Russian military sources said parts of the S-300 will be delivered soon to Syria via cargo planes or Russian navy ships. Until Syrian officers will be trained to operate the system it will be operated by Russian military experts in coordination with the Syrian army.

    According to Kommersant Russia believes that delivering the system will stabilize the situation in Syria and deter Israel and the U.S. from continuing its airstrikes in Syria. Russian sources said that if Israel attacks the missiles the results would be catastrophic.

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    Though still being hotly debated and contested among analysts, Syria’s over 30-year old current deterrent system appears to have performed well, likely stunning the West and neighboring Israel (which itself played a part in the coalition attack) as it reportedly shot down 71 of the 103 cruise missiles, according to official Russian and Syrian government sources. 

    As we previously described, Pentagon officials have vehemently denied that their “nice and new and smart” cruise missiles were actually shot down, and Russia now further claims to be in possession of at least two non-detonated coalition missiles. Most Western media reports continue to assert that Syrian missile defense failed to shoot down a single inbound missile. Notably, the Pentagon has been careful in all statements to say Russia’s S-300 system (currently present aboard Russian battleships in the Mediterranean) did not engage. 

    However, there are other possibilities that the coalition’s missiles simply failed in reaching their targets in some instances without intercept by Syrian defenses, or even that advanced Russian air defense Electronic Counter Measures (ECM) may have been in play. 

    But one doesn’t need to take the Russian Defense Ministry’s word for it. It is entirely possible and even likely that Russian intercept claims are inflated, yet that there were a number of intercepts that night was also reported by several important outside sources, including by Syrian pro-rebel media, foremost being the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which has for years been a chief go-to source for all mainstream reporting on Syria (though ironically when SOHR contradicts the mainstream media, such as in this case, its numbers are ignored).

    SOHR reported, based on “several intersected sources” on the ground, that “the number of missiles that were downed exceeded 65.” That anti-Assad/anti-Russia pro-rebel SOHR is saying this is hugely significant, and is consistent with Russia’s claim. 

    But all of this will perhaps quickly become a moot point if Russia does indeed deliver the S-300 system to Syria after warning immediately on the heels of the US-led strike, that there would be consequences.

    Graphic and Info Source: Jane’s Strategic Weapons Systems via Graphic News

    On the very morning after the US strike took place, Russia’s first deputy chief of staff, Sergei Rudskoi, said Russia would “reconsider” whether to supply the air defenses to Assad – an issue previously thought dead as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had reportedly successfully lobbied President Putin against the possibility in 2013. 

    Netanyahu was quoted at the time as saying of the S-300 system, “We’ll destroy your missiles if you deliver them to Assad” – a warning which has recently been repeated in the form of an Israeli “red line”. However, Russian military sources have this week been quoted in the Times of Israel as saying: if Israel tried to destroy the anti-aircraft batteries—as analysts have indicated Israel likely would—it would be “catastrophic for all sides.”

    But on Monday, Reuters reported that no decision had been made on S-300 delivery to Syria, citing Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who said, “We’ll have to wait to see what specific decisions the Russian leadership and representatives of Syria will take.” Lavrov added, “There is probably no secret about this and it can all be announced (if a decision is taken).”

    However, given Israel’s past history of “strike first” in Syria and negotiate later, we could witness missiles flying before any official announcement takes place. 

  • The Pension Crisis Gets A Catchy Name: "Silver Tsunami"

    Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,

    Pensions really are in crisis, but the story is so full of large numbers, obscure projections, and dry terms like “unfunded liabilities” that not many people are paying attention.

    The same is true for a lot of other big trends out there, which is why those sounding the alarm eventually settle on pithy/scary (if not always accurate) terms to get people’s attention. Global warming, for instance, or nuclear winter.

    Now the pension crisis may have found its hook:

    ‘Silver Tsunami’ hits as pension costs devour California school budgets

    (San Francisco Chronicle) – What happens when state funding improves, but local school budgets get worse? And how did we get into this situation in the first place?

    It’s simple. School systems are getting hammered by the rising costs of pension and health care commitments. Meanwhile, they are being pinched by external factors including declining student enrollment, increased competition and frozen federal funding.

    California is not an anomaly. Districts throughout the nation are facing the same squeeze.

    So why isn’t anyone paying attention? Three main reasons:

    Money is boring: And only boring people like chief financial officers talk about money and use phrases like “unfunded liabilities.” Interesting, cutting-edge people talk about “disruptive innovations” like personalized learning, or anything with the word “maker” in it.

    Money is politically messy. Everyone wants funding for their favorite education project. In this zero-sum world, no one wants to talk about making tough choices. Even fewer want to discuss sensitive topics such as pension and health care liabilities.

    Education finance has never been part of our nation’s education wars.Most of the opinion makers in education are like the Great Houses of Westeros in the HBO series “Game of Thrones.” They are much happier fighting each other to the death about issues like unions and charter schools than focusing on the more powerful forces that could destroy them all.

    In “Game of Thrones,” that force is the White Walkers. In education, it’s the “Silver Tsunami” — the tens of billions of dollars in pension and other post-retirement benefits guaranteed to retirees.

    In the olden days (before the mid-2000s), these budget problems seemed very far away. But over the past decade, millions of Baby Boomers have retired. Suddenly pension and retiree health care costs were at hand.

    Most state and local officials failed to plan for these increased costs. During good times, they sweetened already generous benefits. During bad times, such as the Great Recession, they reduced the already inadequate amounts they were socking away.

    The size of these unfunded liabilities is mind-boggling. Nationally, the estimate is $1.4 trillion. In California, it’s $97 billion for teachers and other school employees as of 2015-16. To put this into perspective, total venture capital investment in educational technology since 2010 was $2.3 billion.

    In 2013, California state leaders attempted to address the shortfall by increasing payments from districts into the pension fund to $1,600 per pupil in 2023-24 from $500. This increase will only pay for part of the state pension obligation. Billions of dollars more will come directly from state coffers and never reach education budgets.

    Just when you think it couldn’t get worse, California has more than $92 billion in unfunded health care liabilities. By 2030, Los Angeles Unified School District, serving more than a half-million students, is projected to spend half its budget on retiree pension and health care costs. Hundreds of other districts could make dramatic budget cuts or even go bankrupt.

    District and charter leaders are beginning to talk about the impact of these rising costs. Unfortunately, everyone else is making things worse. Unions, foundations, and nonprofits still live in a world where an improving state economy was a reason to advocate for salary increases or fund the latest program.

    That world is gone. Winter is already here. Unlike the fantasy world of Westeros, there are no magical solutions or heroes coming to save us.

    With 10,000 or so baby boomers – many of whom are public sector employees – turning 65 every day, pension imbalances will explode in the coming decade. That means life gets harder for pretty much everyone who drives, needs police protection or has kids in school. Which in turn makes politics even more unstable and unpredictable than currently.

    At the same time, the weakest pension plans and their cities will be forced into bankruptcy, leading to panic among the not yet bankrupt and – now we’re getting to the systemic risk – the owners and potential future buyers of the bonds cities and states issue to keep afloat. When the muni market dies, so does much of the rest of the US financial system.

  • Army Building "Self-Aware" Squid-Like Robot That Can Be "3-D Printed" During Combat

    The Army Research Laboratory’s next robot weapon isn’t a new predator drone or even a robot dog like the infamous prototype developed by Boston Labs.

    Instead, it’s a “self-aware” robot built from flexible materials inspired by invertebrates like squid, the Army Times reports.

    Squid

    But in addition to its advance machine-learning capabilities, the material used to build the robots is so lightweight and malleable that soldiers will be able to “print” the robots on the battlefield, the control them with controllers that send electric currents through the materials. 

    In case you weren’t already terrified of robots that can jump over walls, fly or crawl, Army researchers are developing your next nightmare – a flexible, soft robot inspired by squid and other invertebrates.

    And they want soldiers to be able to use 3D printers to make them on the battlefield.

    The U.S. Army Research Laboratory and the University of Minnesota are developing materials that can be 3D printed based on the flexibility and nimbleness of invertebrates such as a squid, according to an ARL release.

    Researchers were inspired to design the new type of robot after testing material that would bend in any direction when hit with electricity.

    Traditional materials are too rigid and limit certain types of movement that robots might require to get into “confined or restricted spaces,” said Ed Habtour, an ARL researcher.

    The prototypes that Habtour and fellow ARL researchers developed gave 3D-printed actuators three times the movement as what’s been tested before.

    The material that they’ve used in their testing will bend in any direction when hit with electricity.

    “In the initial phase of the project, our team began by investigating new methods for emulating the locomotion of invertebrates,” said Michael McAlpine, a professor at the University of Minnesota.

    That helped researchers learn how to apply the natural movement of invertebrates like squids to produce “high bending motions without skeletal support,” McAlpine said.

    As scientists continue to study the material, the head researchers say they will be able to build robots that are “dynamic”, “self-aware” and able to adjust to battlefield conditions.

    Because the material doesn’t have to be dried, heated or assembled, it would require little training and could be used for printable robots that soldiers could make and use whenever and wherever they’re needed.

    “If we can understand these interactions, then we can use those insights to fabricate dynamic structures and flexible robots which are designed to be self-aware, self-sensing and capable of adjusting their morphologies and properties in real time to adapt to a myriad of external and internal conditions,” Habtour said.

    While the Army is building squid-like robots that can squeeze into confined spaces – whether it’s to search for explosives or rescue or treat wounded soldiers – Amazon is working on a “top secret” robotics project of its own: Building what it hopes will be the first domestic robot to break into the mainstream.

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Today’s News 23rd April 2018

  • European Parliament Urges Boycott Of Soccer World Cup In Russia

    German Green Party member Rebecca Harms has initiated an open letter calling on EU governments to stay away from the FIFA World Cup taking place in Russia in June.

    Sixty Members of the European Parliament from 16 member states and 5 different political groups are supporting the call.

    The letter (in full below) reads that the poisoning of a former Russian spy in Britain last month “was just the latest chapter in Vladimir Putin’s mockery of our European values.”

    Citing “indiscriminate bombings of schools, hospitals, and civilian areas in Syria; the violent military invasion in Ukraine; systematic hacking; disinformation campaigns; election meddling; trying to destabilize our societies and to weaken and divide the EU.”

    Concluding that:

    “All this doesn’t make for a good World Cup host.”

    Additionally, Harms said on Friday that Putin is responsible for the occupation and war in Ukraine.

    Harms letter – and the backing of a growing group of MEPs follows White House representatives warning British and American fans to think twice before going to the World Cup in Russia.

    The official said: “We won’t have the same ability to protect our citizens or even just deal with the regular consular affairs.

    “If you get into any kind of difficulty there then we just won’t have the wherewithal. People have accidents. They get ill, they need to be medivacked out.”

    The official also warned of the threat of Russian hooligans promising to hunt down English fans in the streets and even “kill”.

    *  *  *

    OPEN LETTER

    To all EU governments,

    We, Members of the European Parliament, call on you, as representatives of the people in the European Union, to join the governments of Iceland and the UK in not attending the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia.

    The Salisbury attack was just the latest chapter in Vladimir Putin’s mockery of our European values: indiscriminate bombings of schools, hospitals and civilian areas in Syria; the violent military invasion in Ukraine; systematic hacking; disinformation campaigns; election meddling; trying to destabilize our societies and to weaken and divide the EU – all this doesn’t make for a good World Cup host.

    While we agree that sport can help build metaphorical bridges, as long as Putin is blowing up real ones in Syria, we cannot pretend this World Cup is just like any other major sporting event.

    As long as Putin is illegally occupying Crimea, holding Ukrainian political prisoners and supporting the war in Eastern Ukraine we cannot pretend that this tournament’s host is our welcoming neighbour.

    And as long as political dissidents and the free press are in constant danger in Russia and beyond, we cannot turn our backs on them to shake Putin’s hand in a football stadium.

    Three days after the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, Putin invaded Ukraine, and the world watched in dismay. This time, we can make things right by not cheering at his grave violations of human rights at the 2018 World Cup.

    The world is looking at Europe in these difficult times. Our governments should not strengthen the authoritarian and anti-western path of the Russian President, but boycott the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia and raise their voices for the protection of human rights, of democratic values and peace.

    Sincerely,

    Adaktusson, Lars (EPP, Sweden)
    Andrikiene, Laima (EPP, Lithuania)
    Auštrevičius, Petras (ALDE, Lithuania)
    Boni, Michal (EPP, Poland)
    Bové, José (Greens/EFA, France)
    Buzek, Jerzy (EPP, Poland)
    Childers, Nessa (S&D, Ireland)
    Delli, Karima (Greens/EFA, France)
    Durand, Pascal (Greens/EFA, France)
    Eickhout, Bas (Greens/EFA, Netherlands)
    Fjellner, Christofer (EPP, Sweden)
    Fotyga, Anna (ECR, Poland)
    Gabelic, Aleksander (S&D, Sweden)
    Giegold, Sven (Greens/EFA, Germany)
    Griffin, Theresa (S&D, UK)
    Guteland, Jytte (S&D, Sweden)
    Harms, Rebecca (Initiator of this call, Greens/EFA, Germany)
    Hetman, Krzysztof (EPP, Poland)
    Heubuch, Maria (Greens/EFA, Germany)
    Hökmark, Gunnar (EPP, Sweden)
    Jadot, Yannick (Greens/EFA, France)
    Jávor, Benedek (Greens/EFA, Hungary)
    Jazłowiecka, Danuta (EPP, Poland)
    Joly, Eva (Greens/EFA, France)
    Kalinowski, Jarosław (EPP, Poland)
    Kelam, Tunne (EPP, Estonia)
    Kozłowska-Rajewicz, Agnieszka (EPP, Poland)
    Kudrycka, Barbara (EPP, Poland)
    Lambert, Jean (Greens/EFA, UK)
    Lewandowski, Janusz (EPP, Poland)
    Łukacijewska, Elżbieta (EPP, Poland)
    Macovei, Monica (EPP, Romania)
    Moody, Clare (S&D, UK)
    Olbrycht, Jan (EPP, Poland)
    Pabriks, Artis (EPP, Latvia)
    Pietikäinen, Sirpa (EPP, Finnland)
    Pitera, Julia (EPP, Poland)
    Plura, Marek (EPP, Poland)
    Rivasi, Michèle (Greens/EFA, France)
    Ropé, Bronis (Greens/EFA, Lithuania)
    Rosati, Dariusz (EPP, Poland)
    Sargentini, Judith (Greens/EFA, Netherlands)
    Siekierski, Czesław (EPP, Poland)
    Smith, Alyn (Greens/EFA, UK)
    Šojodrová, Michaela (EPP, Czech Republic)
    Staes, Bart (Greens/EFA, Belgium)
    Štětina, Jaromír (EPP, Czech Republic)
    Szejnfeld, Adam (EPP, Poland)
    Tarand, Indrek (Greens/EFA, Estonia)
    Telička, Pavel (EPP, Czech Republic)
    Thun und Hohenstein, Róża Gräfin von (EPP, Poland)
    Trüpel, Helga (Greens/EFA, Germany)
    Turmes, Claude (Greens/EFA, Luxembourg)
    Vaidere, Inese (EPP, Latvia)
    Valero, Bodil (Greens/EFA, Sweden)
    Wałesa, Jarosław (EPP, Poland)
    Ward, Julie (S&D, UK)
    Wenta, Bogdan (EPP, Poland)
    Zdrojewski, Bogdan (EPP, Poland)
    Zwiefka, Tadeusz (EPP, Poland)

  • Is A False-Flag Attack On A US Navy Ship Next?

    Authored by Nick via The Saker blog,

    The USS Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group left the east coast Naval Station Norfolk, VA on 11th April.

    The aircraft carrier is accompanied by the guided-missile cruiser USS Normandy, the guided-missile destroyers USS Burke, Bulkeley, Forest Sherman and Farragut, and the destroyers USS Jason and The Sullivans. The strike group carries 6,500 sailors and Carrier Air Wing One.

    Recent announcements about Russia’s hypersonic Kinzhal (‘Dagger’) missile system having made these vessels effectively obsolete, this means that the ships and their crews are essentially being sailed into a bloody scrapyard.

    Even without the recent upgrading of the Kinzhal system, the experience of the British fleet in the Falklands conflict illustrates the vulnerability of warships to low-flying missiles. In addition to the sinking of the HMS Sheffield and Sir Galahad, virtually every British ship was hit by at least one of Argentinian’s French-made Exocet missiles – a weapons system which was already 20 years old at the time.

    Exocet missile sinks HMS Sheffield during Falklands War:

    Reportedly the only thing that saved the UK force from obliteration was that the Argentinians had got their missile altimeter settings wrong. The Russians will not make the same sort of error!

    These facts are of course known to the US military planners and – one would assume and hope, for it is duty to know – by Donald Trump. And yet the US fleet is now nearing the coast of Syria, where it will met up with American and other NATO warships already in position. Together, they will make one big flock of sitting ducks.

    If the people pushing Trump manage to get him launch a new strike on Syria (and we must expect a new false flag attack) and if the massive increase in NATO firepower means that enough missiles get through to enough targets to kill Russians, then Putin really has no choice but to sink the US fleet.

    No choice because, whatever the danger of doing so, failure to respond would signal Russian defeat and retreat in Syria, which would of course lead to a rapid escalation of military pressure against Lebanon and Iran, and mean that when the Empire then rolls on to strike Russia, her most reliable allies will already have gone and her ‘soft underbelly’ will be seriously exposed.

    So Putin orders the destruction of the US fleet, and an hour later all that is left is debris and mangled corpses in some oil slicks – and some ‘great’ photos and video clips to illustrate Trump’s declaration of war on account of “Russia’s deadly sneak attack on a US humanitarian force”.

    Sounds familiar? It should do. Because we’re not just thinking here of the USS Maine, the Lusitania and the Gulf of Tonkin. The Washington habit of using sunken ships as the causus belli also of course included Pearl Harbor.

    Just in case you need a reminder, here’s just one example of the many short videos out there on the truth about the Japanese attack on 7th December 1941 which explain how Roosevelt had advance intelligence of the planned attack, but decided not to pass it on to the anchored sitting duck fleet:

    The more or less official excuse (the President’s guilt never having been formally acknowledged) is that to have alerted the fleet would also have tipped off the Japanese that their naval codes had already been broken. But the truth is of course that deliberately didn’t warn the fleet because he knew that the sacrifice would goad the American people into a war against Hitler to which he and those around and behind him were committed, but which the American people opposed.

    The circumstances this time are of course somewhat different, not least that everyone with even a passing knowledge of the Russian missile capability already knows that 6,500 sailors are “on their way to Samara”.

    Which makes Donald Trump either a criminally incompetent fool, a bad poker player or a wholly controlled puppet of the psychotic Anglo-Zionist elite. If he is one of the first two of these, then there is of course still a chance that he might respond to the disaster by blinking and retreating. In which case, the Beltway elite will use the human tragedy and his humiliation to remove him from office (not a bad consolation prize, from their point of view).

    But if he is the third, then the ‘shock’ blitz on the US fleet will lead to the immediate declaration of World War Three.

    Indeed, if things get that far (and we’re probably 48 hours and one White Helmets’ video away from it) then the only thing that realistically stands a chance of stopping the racist Anglo-Zionist psychopaths in their tracks is if the Russian attack and its result are such a devastating show of ‘shock and awe’ as to make it impossible for them to ignore a simultaneous public warning by Putin to Netanyahu that any further US hostile response will place Israel directly in the firing line as well.

    That might JUST be enough to make the Neocons back off. If not, then World War Three it will be. It might not go nuclear straight away, but even while it is conventional EVERYTHING will change:

    Dissident anti-war voices such as this will rapidly be silenced by blanket censorship and internment; your sons and daughters will be conscripted; your taxes will go through the roof – and you will have to live with the ever-present fear that, once China enters the war against Washington and its client states, the tide will run so fast against the ‘democratic allies’ that their ‘humanitarian missiles’ will end up with nuclear tips.

    If that disturbs you (and it surely should) then all I ask is that you take the Pearl Harbor analogy and get busy spreading it on social media RIGHT NOW. Because once those young sailors and airmen have been sacrificed, the demand for a war of ‘revenge’ will be unstoppable. But if the warmongers realize that plenty of people have already understood the plan, it might just spook them into backing off.

    In which case the fleet can do a few face-saving manoeuvres and then sail home again and we can look forward to a summer which may be warm, but not as uncomfortably hot as it could otherwise become!

  • 63% Of The World's Tallest Buildings Are In Asia

    Authored by Yuka Kato via Fixr.com,

    With tall buildings dominating skylines and creating a sense of wonder and pride for those who call their locations home, we wanted to explore more about the constant and continued race to the clouds. A recent infographic explored the tallest completed buildings in the U.S., but left some to wonder how the skyline looked outside of the U.S. borders.

    Defining a “tall building” is harder than it seems as there is no absolute definition on what constitutes one; however, once a building reaches 328 ft (100 m), it can be called a skyscraper. At heights over 984.3 ft (300 m) it is designated “supertall” and at 1,968.5 ft (600 m) it boasts the title “megatall”. As of today, there are 129 supertalls and only three megatalls completed globally.

    This article and the above infographic, which visually depicts the most up to date data, collected and grouped by CTBUH into building height ranges of +492.1 ft (150 m), +656.2 ft (200 m), and +984.3 ft (300 m), will focus on skyscrapers that extend upwards to heights at or exceeding 492.1 ft (150m).

    The Clear Leader and The Distant Runner Up

    With over 63% of the world’s tallest buildings, Asia leads the globe in reaching skywards. In total, Asia is home to more than 3,600 buildings that reach over 492.1 ft (150 m) in height according to the data available at the CTBUH. Of that same data, China enjoys the lion’s share of 63.6% for a total of 2,306 giants. The majority (72.3%) of China’s giants fall into the +492.1 ft (150 m) range and they have more than double (57) the number of buildings that reach upward of 984.3 ft (300 m) than any other country.

    North America’s position is a distant second to Asia in terms of sheer number of tall buildings; however, it must be noted that North America is comprised of two countries; whereas, Asia is comprised of 18, making it a smaller region overall. The United States leads not only the North America region but the entire Americas region too, with 943 giants in total. Over 78% of those buildings are +492.1 ft (150 m), 19% over 656.2 ft (200 m), and the remaining make up the buildings over 984.3 ft (300 m) in height.

    The Biggest of the Big

    China and the U.S. are definitively ahead of other countries in the number of tall buildings that sit on their soil; however, when it comes to the tallest of the tall, it is another country that soars. There are 11 countries which are home to more than 100 buildings that reach heights of 492.1 ft (150 m) or more. Of those, the U.A.E. has the largest proportion of supertall and megatall structures with 7.2% (25) of their buildings exceeding 984.3 ft (300 m). One building in particular, the Burj Khalifa located in Dubai, reaches as astronomical height of 2,717 feet (828 m) and holds the record of the World’s Tallest Completed Building. It is 31% (643 ft / 196 m) taller than the world’s second tallest completed building, the Shanghai Tower in China. Despite the fact that the U.S. ranks second in terms of total number of tall buildings, it’s tallest completed building, One World Trade Center, currently ranks sixth in terms of height.

    Tall Trends Today and Tomorrow

    In 2015 China completed 62 new skyscrapers while the U.S. completed two. The following year China reached 84 newly completed; whereas, the U.S. again only completed two. Although likely to the chagrin of Donald Trump, it is no surprise that economist Tyler Cowen jokingly refers to this trend as “The Great Skyscraper Stagnation”.

    There are some new predictions for future trends too. For example, Philadelphia’s Comcast Technology Center, located in a 4-season climate, is a potential indicator that the high-rise sky-garden model is moving beyond warm climates. The timber trend is taking hold too. With the TallWood House in Vancouver being completed in 2017 and the HoHo in Vienna still under construction, a Japanese company has come forward to announce plans to build the world’s tallest wooden skyscraper to mark its 350th anniversary in 2041.

    The distribution of behemoths across the globe is not equally balanced, and while there may not be a straightforward answer as to why, there are some clues. In a 2017 CTBUH research paper, the authors reached the conclusion that a country’s GDP was a causal factor in predicting the amount of skyscraper floor space available. Another study done by Schläpfer, Bettencourt and Lee found correlation between the size and density of cities and the height of skyscrapers.

    Regardless of the reason for building a tower, and the bragging rights that come along with it, one thing is for sure: Based on the data explored here, the trends witnessed to date, and impending projects like the Jeddah Tower, it can be surmised that they will continue soaring onwards and upwards for years to come.

    Data

  • Lies And Deception In The Failed US Strike On Syria

    Authored by Federico Pieraccini via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    At 4am on April 14, the United States, France and the United Kingdom executed a strike on Syria.

    The Syrian Free Press reported:

    US Navy warships in the Red Sea and Air Force B-1B bombers and F-15 and F-16 aircraft rained dozens of ship- and air-launched cruise missiles down on the Syrian capital of Damascus, an airbase outside the city, a so-called chemical weapons storage facility near Homs, and an equipment-storage facility and command post, also near Homs. B1-Bs are typically armed with JASSM cruise missiles, which have a 450 kg warhead and a range of 370 kms. US Navy warships launched Tomahawks, which have 450 kg warheads and an operational range of between 1,300 and 2,500 kms. The British Royal Air Force’s contingent for the assault consisted of four Tornado GR4 ground-attack aircraft armed with the Storm Shadow long-range air-to-ground missile, which the UK’s Defense Ministry said targeted ‘chemical weapons sites’ in Homs. These weapons have a range of 400 kms. Finally, France sent its Aquitaine frigate, armed with SCALP naval land-attack cruise missiles (SCALP is the French military’s name for the Storm Shadow), as well as several Dassault Rafale fighters, also typically armed with SCALP or Apache cruise missiles. According to the Russian defense ministry, the B-1Bs also fired GBU-38 guided air bombs. Undoubtedly weary of the prospect of having their aircraft shot down after Israel lost one of its F-16s over Syria in February, the Western powers presumably launched their weapons from well outside the range of Syrian air defenses, with all the targets located just 70-90 kms from the Mediterranean Sea, and having to fly through Lebanon first.

    Recapping the information on the strike, the US and its allies used the following assets:

    • 2 destroyers (USS Laboon, USS Higgins)

    • 1 US cruiser (USS Monterey)

    • 1 French frigate (Georges Leygues)

    • 5 Rafale jets

    • 4 Mirage 2000-5F

    • 4 British Tornado fighter-bombers

    • Virginia-class submarine USS John Warner

    • 2 US B-1B bombers

    Their ordnance brought to bear consisted of the following:

    • The cruiser Monterey launched 30 Tomahawk missiles

    • The destroyer Higgins 23 Tomahawks

    • The destroyer Laboon 7 Tomahawks

    • The submarine John Warner 6 Tomahawks

    • 2 B-1 bombers 21 JASSM missiles

    • 4 British Tornado GR4 fighter bombers 16 Storm-shadow missiles.

    • The French Languedoc fired 3 MdCN land-attack missiles.

    The US Pentagon reports the strike group targeted:

    – 76 missiles at the Barzah research center in Damascus:

    (Source)

    – 22 missiles at an undefined “chemical” structure:

     (Source)

    – 7 missiles against an undefined “chemical bunker”:

     (Source)

    The Syrian anti-aircraft forces responded, firing a total of 112 air-defence missiles:

    • the Pantsyr system fired 25 missiles and hit 24 targets;

    • the Buk system fired 29 missiles and hit 24 targets;

    • the Osa system fired 11 and hit 5 targets;

    • the S-125 system fired 13 missiles and hit 5 targets;

    • the Strela-10 system fired 5 missiles and hit 3 targets;

    • the Kvadrat system fired 21 and hit 11 targets;

    • the S-200 system fired 8 and hit no targets.

    (Source)

    The Russians have stated that the target of the raids and the effectiveness of the missiles have resulted in a big fiasco for the Americans:

    • 4 missiles were launched targeting the area of the Damascus International Airport; these 4 missiles were intercepted.

    • 12 missiles were launched targeting the Al-Dumayr Military Airport; these 12 missiles were intercepted.

    • 18 missiles were launched  targeting the Bley Military Airport; these 18 missiles were intercepted.

    • 12 missiles were launched targeting the Shayarat Military Airport; these 12 missiles were intercepted.

    • 9-15 missiles were launched  targeting the Mezzeh Military Airport; 5 of them were intercepted.

    • 16 missiles were launched targeting the Homs Military Airport; 13 of which were intercepted.

    • 30 missiles were launched targeting targets in the areas of Barzah and Jaramani; 7 of which were intercepted.

    The effectiveness of the attack is called into question, especially in light of the prompt reaction of the civilian population that took to the streets in support of Bashar al Assad and the Syrian government only a few hours after the US-led attack.

    (Celebrations the morning of the 14th of April in Umayyad Square, Damascus )

    What emerges immediately from the Syrian/Russian and American narratives are contrasting assessments of the outcome of the attack.

    We can certainly try to dispute some statements.

    The Americans repeated that at least two chemical-weapons laboratories together with a chemical-weapons storage center were affected. As evidenced by the images shot by PressTV a few hours after the attack, the structure is destroyed but there are no chemical contaminations. To confirm this, the television operators were able to perform interviews and live footage a few meters from the site of the strike without experiencing any physical effects, which would have been impossible were the American version of events true, given that the release of chemical agents would have made the whole area inaccessible.

    Further confirmation comes from Ammar Waqqaf interviewed on The Heat on CGTV, claiming that his relatives were about 500 meters from one of the alleged chemical-weapons research centers attacked by the Americans. Ammar says that even in this case, no chemical agent appears to have been released, thus disproving Washington’s claims.

    Another important consideration concerns the targets. For Washington, the targets were limited to research laboratories (Barzah and Jaramani) and storage centers. But Moscow revealed that the objectives also included military bases as well as the civilian Damascus International Airport, namely: Al-Dumayr Military Airport, Bley Military Airport, Shayarat Military Airport, Mezzeh Military Airport, Homs Military Airport. These were mostly unsuccessful attacks.

    In light of the foregoing, we can assume that the operational goal of the Americans was twofold.

    On the one hand, it was aimed at the media, to show a response to the (false) accusations of a chemical attack in Douma (Robert Fisk has just dismantled the propaganda and RT reminds us of the various false flags perpetrated by the US in the past to start wars); on the other, it was used by the military to actually permanently damage the Syrian Air Force, as suggested by the warmongering neocon Lindsey Graham. The failure of this latter objective could be seen in the following hours when the Syrian planes resumed operational tasks.

    What does all this information tell us? First of all, the American goal was not to hit the non-existent chemical weapons or their production sites. The aim was to reduce as much as possible Syrian Air Force assets at different military airports. The mission was a failure, as reported by the Russian military envoy in Syria thanks to the air-defense measures of the Syrian forces as well as probably a high electronic-warfare (EW) contribution from the Russian forces present in the country. Very little has been leaked out in technical terms from the Russian Federation, which officially states that it did not contribute towards defending against the attack. It is probable that Russia played a decisive role in terms of EW, with its little-known but highly effective systems as demonstrated in previous attacks in 2017.

    Moscow has no interest in promoting its cutting-edge EW systems, and often does not confirm the reports issued by more or less government agencies, as in the case of the USS Donald Cook in 2014. Yet Russia Beyond explains EW as probably being fundamental in foiling the American attack:

    Before the electronic jamming system kicks in, the aircraft scans the radio signals in its zone of ​​activity. After detecting the traffic frequencies of the enemy’s equipment, the operator on board the aircraft enables the jamming system in the required bandwidth,” a defense industry source told Russia Beyond. In addition to onboard systems, there are ground-based Krasnukha-4 EW complexes stationed around the Khemeimim airbase, Russia’s key stronghold in the Middle East. Their purpose is to suppress enemy “eavesdropping” and weapons guidance systems. The Krasnukha-4 blinds enemy radar systems to targets at a distance of 250 km.

    The general public is yet to understand that the American attack was a complete fiasco, much to the irritation of Lindsey Graham, thereby confirming Damascus’s narrative, which presented Syria’s response as decisive and effective.

    The logic of the matter must also be considered. We know that the US and her allies launched 105 missiles aimed at various targets, including some military bases, but none of them hit the targets indicated, except for two buildings already emptied previously and a non-existent chemical-weapons depot. The Pentagon amplified the military report with the lie that only two research centers and a chemical-weapons depot were intentionally bombed with something like 105 missiles; this in order to account for the number of missiles launched and to drown out other assessments that contradict the preferred narrative. But it is ridiculous to believe that the US used 76 missiles to hit three buildings. A much more plausible explanation is that there were many more targets but only three of them were hit, this measly success carrying zero tactical or strategic importance.

    We should ask ourselves what the real goal of Washington was.

    First, let us split the story into two parts. On the one hand we have a PR exercise, and on the other an intended military strategy.

    In the first case, Washington was able to pursue its self-assigned role as “protector of the weak”, like those victims of the alleged Douma chemical attack. The intended optics were those of a humanitarian intervention, in line with the West’s self-assigned role of regent of the post-World War II neoliberal world order. In reality, we know very well that US hegemony is based on millions of deaths in dozens of wars scattered around the globe. According to the fictitious narrative of the media, it all boils down to good-guys-versus-bad-guys, and Assad is the bad guy while the US is the good guy punishing the regime for the use of chemical weapons.

    The success of PR exercise depends very little on the military outcome and much more on the story as told by the media. It is based solely on the affirmation of the role taken up by the US and her allies, that of being in the right and driven only by the noblest interests. But such a series of unreasonable lies has only served to drag the world into chaos, diminished the role of the mainstream media, and destroyed the credibility of practically the whole Western political class.

    From a military point of view, however, the goals, intent and results show a far more disturbing result for Washington and her allies. Soviet-era weapons that were updated by Moscow and integrated into the Russian air defense infrastructure network severely degraded the effectiveness of the American attack. Washington wanted to ground the entire Syrian air force, hitting air bases with precision, but failed in this objective. It remains to be seen whether this attack was a prelude to something bigger, with the USS Harry S Truman Carrier Strike Group currently heading towards Syrian territorial waters. Following the logic of deconfliction with Russia, it seems unlikely that a more intense attack will occur, rumors even circulating that Mattis dissuaded Trump from targeting Russian and Iranian targets, being well aware of the risks in a Russian response.

    Let us focus for a moment on the risks in this kind of scenario. We are told that it would have brought about World War Three. This is probably true. But the consequences could also entail something much worse for Washington than for the rest of the world. The rhetoric that an American attack on Russian forces in Syria would trigger a direct war between the two superpowers is certainly true, but perhaps it is wrong in its interpretation. The danger seems to lie less in the possibility of a nuclear apocalypse and more in exposing the US’s inability to go toe to toe with a peer competitor.

    While we cannot (and hope not to) test this hypothesis, we can certainly join the dots. If Soviet-era systems, with a slight Russian modernization, can nullify an American attack, what could the Russian forces do themselves? They could probably even block an attack of the scale visited on Baghdad, where several hundred missiles were directed towards civilian and military targets. It would be highly unlikely in such a scenario for Washington to peddle the false propaganda of a successful attack with little in terms of bomb-damage assessment commensurate with the number of missiles launched.

    Already in the April 14 attack, the explanation that 76 cruise missiles were directed against three buildings is ridiculous but is nevertheless sustained thanks to the lies of the mainstream media and the paucity of available information. However, when thinking of 500 Tomahawks launched with limited damage to the Syrian infrastructure, even that would be impossible to sell to a very ignorant and deceived public. It would be the definitive proof of the decline in American military effectiveness and the potency of Russian air-defense systems. Just like during Putin’s presentation of new weapons some months back, when the Empire feels its core (military power) is threatened, it simply dismisses such reports as false, in the process becoming a victim of its own propaganda.

    Yet one would only need to listen to the words of the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering, Michael Griffin, in a conference at the Hudson Institute where he explained how Moscow and Beijing capabilities are far more advanced in hypersonic and supersonic missile defense and attack capabilities. He openly explained that Washington takes about 16 years to implement a paper-to-service idea, while its rivals in a few years have shown that they can move from concept to practical development, gaining a huge advantage over rivals like Washington.

    The problem is inherent for the United States in its need to keep alive a war machine based on inflated military spending that creates enormous pockets of corruption and inefficiency. Just look at the F-35 project and its constant problems. Although Moscow’s spending is less than twelve times that of the United States, it has succeeded in developing systems like hypersonic missiles that are still in the testing phase in the United States, or systems like the S-500, which the US does not possess.

    The S-300, S-400, P-800 anti-ship missiles and the 3M22 Zircon hypersonic missiles, in addition to EW, pose a fundamental problem for Washington in dealing with attacks against a peer competitor. The military in Washington are probably well aware of the risks of revealing the US to be a paper tiger, so they prefer to avoid any direct confrontation with Russia and Iran, more for the purposes of maintaining military prestige than out of a desire to avoid risking World War Three. If Russian forces ever were targeted by the US, in all probability Moscow would simply disable the electronics of the US ship rather than sinking it, leaving it to float in the Mediterranean uncontrolled for days.

    The last fig leaf hiding the US military’s inadequacy rests in Hollywood propaganda that presents the US military as practically invincible. Accordingly, some sites have spread stories that Russia had been forewarned of the attack and that the whole bombing event was the same sort of farce as a year ago. In the first place, it is important to clarify that Moscow had not been given advanced warning of the targets, and the reason for this is simple: the attack was real and, as explained above, did not succeed precisely because of Moscow and Damuscus’s effective parries and blocks.

    In reality, Washington has failed in its military strategy, and the media have turned to the usual propaganda of chemical weapons and the need to enforce justice in the world and proclaim a non-existent success. In the meantime, Moscow fine-tunes its weapons and prepares to deliver the S-300 to the Syrian state and its allies (Lebanon?), effectively limiting Washington’s ability to attack in the Middle East. This is a fitting conclusion for a story that has only damaged the status of the United States and her allies in the Middle East, bringing Syria closer to a final victory.

  • IMF Blasts New Zealand's "Discriminatory" Ban On Home Sales To Foreigners

    Amid reports that 40,000 kiwis were living on the streets or in emergency shelters thanks to an acute housing crisis in the nation of nearly 5 million, New Zealand’s Labour-led government knew it needed to take drastic action to cool the country’s white hot housing market – or at least convince the public that it was doing something.

    So late last year, lawmakers proposed a bill that would limit home purchases to people who carry residential visas. It is called the Overseas Investment Act.

    As we’ve pointed out, home prices in New Zealand have risen dramatically since the financial crisis. Over the past ten years, New Zealand home prices have risen by roughly 60% due to a combination of factors, including limited supply, low interest rates fueling a boom in borrowing, and – of course – foreign speculation.

    Housing

    And on Sunday, the chorus of critics against the measure – which hasn’t been passed into law – gained another voice: That of the International Monetary Fund. In its annual report on the New Zealand economy, the IMF said the measure would be “unlikely to have a significant impact on housing affordability,” and that the rest of the government’s “ambitious policy agenda” would likely be more than enough to help make homes more affordable.

    The government has initiated an ambitious policy agenda to restore housing affordability, which appropriately focuses on strengthening supply and lowering tax distortions . The agenda includes several work streams.

    The KiwiBuild program aims to increase housing supply at affordable price points. The Urban Growth Agenda aims to address regulatory, planning and other policies that reduce development capacity for growth, along with the under-funding of local infrastructure development and maintenance. The government has already announced the extension of the bright-line test on sale of residential property from within two years of purchase to within five years and also proposes to limit negative gearing from rental properties. A Tax Working Group is considering possible additional reform, including a broader capital gains tax on real estate investment and land tax reform, although its mandate is narrow on the latter. These reforms are complementary, and the success of the housing policy agenda will depend on well-coordinated progress on all fronts.

    A ban of residential real estate purchases by nonresidents is unlikely to have a significant impact on housing affordability. The proposed ban in the draft amendment to the Overseas Investment Act is a capital flow management measure (CFM) under the IMF’s Institutional View on capital flows. The measure is unlikely to be temporary or targeted, and foreign buyers seem to have played a minor role in New Zealand’s residential real estate markets recently. The broad housing policy agenda above, if fully implemented, would address most of the potential problems associated with foreign buyers on a less discriminatory basis.

    Should the measure become law, foreigners would be allowed to build new developments, but only as long as they have plans to sell the property as soon as its finished.

    However, it would include an exception for people who can convince New Zealand’s Overseas Investment Office that they intend to live in the country long term (a group that might soon include a handful of US-based billionaires). Australian citizens are also exempt from the rule.

    Ironically, reports about the rule led to a surge in home sales as foreigners scrambled to buy ahead of the ban.

    Housing

    Local critics of the law, including the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand, agree with the IMF that the measure is unnecessary because foreigners just aren’t that big of a factor in the country’s housing market: The organization estimates that less than 4% of home buyers are foreigners, per the Independent.

    As we’ve previously pointed out, it’s probable that banning foreign speculators will cool off the country’s property market. But the problem that the government is missing is that it risks triggering a real-estate crash. And when housing prices crash, people feel poorer, so they spend less, a pattern that threatens to afflict the broader economy. In its report, the IMF applauded New Zealand’s “solid economic expansion in recent years” and noted that “household debt-related vulnerabilities are expected to decrease…”

  • "Our Hands Are On The Trigger": Iran Threatens To "Annihilate" Israel

    The head of Iran’s military, Abdolrahim Mousavi, said that the Iranian Army and the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) – another branch of the Iranian military, will “move hand in hand” to ensure that the “arrogant system will collapse and the Zionist regime will be annihilated” within 25 years, reports FARS news agency.

    “When the arrogant powers create a sanctuary for the Zionist regime to continue survival, we shouldn’t allow one day to be added to the ominous and illegitimate life of this regime,” General Moussavi added, addressing the ceremony.

    Mousavi’s remarks come one day after IRGC Lieutenant Commander Brigadier General Hossein Salami warned Israel not to engage in further saber-rattling against Iran – claiming that their airbases are “within reach,” putting them “in the dragon’s mouth.” 

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    ​”Don’t trust your airbases. They’re within reach,” said Salami, adding that “wherever you are in the occupied land, you’ll be under fire from us, from east and west. You became arrogant. If there’s a war, the result will be your complete elimination.”

    Salami noted that Iran’s “Hands are on the trigger & missiles are ready & will be launched at any moment that the enemy has a sinister plot.”

    “We know you well, you are too vulnerable,” Salami said, addressing Israel. “You have no depth and no backyard, you are the size of our Beit-ul-Moqaddas operations (during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war), any point in the land under your occupation is a cross point of fire from North and from West, and this is a new phenomenon. You have no way out to escape and you are living in the dragon’s mouth.”

    General Salami told the Zionists to be aware that in case of outbreak of any war “you can be assured that it will result in wiping you off, the smallest target is your existence, there is no smaller target than that“. –FARS

    Salami also told Israel that they shouldn’t count on the help of the UK, Britain and France, saying “You are gone when they arrive there like an ambulance sent to a dead man that can only take him to the graveyard; then, behave yourselves and avoid doing dangerous calculations.”

    Two Israeli aircraft struck the T-4 airbase in central Syria April 9, approximately 48 hours after an alleged chemical attack in the city of Douma – and five days before U.S. led coalition forces bombed three Syrian targets in retaliation. RT reported that two Israeli F-15 jets fired eight guided missiles at the airfield from Lebanese airspace. The jets never entered Syria.

    Of these, Syrian air defenses intercepted five. The attack left roughly 14 people dead, including Iranians and Syrians, the Associated Press reported.

    Russia and the Syrian military blamed Israel for a pre-dawn missile attack Monday on a major air base in central Syria, saying Israeli fighter jets launched the missiles from Lebanon’s air space. A war-monitoring group said the airstrikes killed 14 people, including Iranians active in Syria.

    Last Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu conferred with US President Donald Trump before ordering the April 9 strike which targeted Iranian air-defense and other military hardware such as a drone program.

    After conferring with President Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered a strike on the newly arrived antiaircraft battery to prevent Iranian forces from using it against Israeli warplanes carrying out increasing numbers of operations in Syria, some of these people said.

    Israeli officials told the Trump administration about the planned strike in advance so that the U.S. was aware of their plans to directly target an Iranian base, according to two people briefed on the plans.

    Israeli leaders have kept silent about the strike, but Russia, Iran and Syria all accused Israel of carrying it out. Information provided by intelligence officials and others briefed on the strike offered new details on the specific target, Israel’s goals, and the discussions with Washington. –WSJ

    In response, Israel’s Netanyahu fired back at Salami on Friday. 

    “We hear the threats from Iran. IDF fighters and the security branches are ready for any development. We will fight anyone who tries to harm us.” 

    Israel has carried out over 100 airstrikes in Syria since 2013 – primarily targeting Hezbollah, an Iranian-funded Lebanese militia group. Beginning in 2018, however, Israel began targeting Iran directly. 

    A missile strike earlier this month, which killed seven Iranian military advisors from the country’s elite Quds Force in the Syrian city of Homs, has been neither confirmed nor denied by Israel’s government.

    However, New York Times’ columnist Thomas Friedman wrote that a senior Israeli military official admitted to him that Israel attacked the Syrian base known as  T4, in a separate attack. “It was the first time we attacked live Iranian targets – both facilities and people,” the official reportedly said. –Yahoo!

    “Tel Aviv will be punished for its aggressive action,” said Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Ghassemi last week. “The occupying Zionist regime will, sooner or later, receive an appropriate response to its actions.”

    That said, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zerif said in CBS interview that while further Israeli strikes in Syria will have “consequences,” he  suggested that a major military escalation is unlikely. 

    I do not believe that we are headed towards regional war but I do believe that unfortunately, Israel has continued its violations with international law, hoping to be able to do it with impunity because of the U.S. support and trying to find smokescreens to hide behind,” Zarif told CBS News.

  • Iran Officially Switches From Dollar To Euro

    Just two weeks after “panic” hit the streets of Tehran as the Iranian government attempted to ‘fix’ the freefall of the Rial against the USDollar…

    Middle East Monitor reports that Iran’s feud with the US is set to get worse after Tehran announced this week that it will start reporting foreign currency amounts in euros rather than US dollars, as part of the country’s effort to reduce its reliance on the American currency due to political tension with Washington.

    Central bank governor Valiollah Seif said last week that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had welcomed his suggestion of replacing the dollar with the euro in foreign trade, as the “dollar has no place in our transactions today”.

    Iran does hardly any trade with the US due to decades of economic sanctions. It’s most important trading partner is the UAE, which accounts for around 24 per cent of all Iranian imports and exports. China is not far behind with 22 per cent, followed by Turkey, India and the EU, all of which account for around six per cent of Iran’s trade.

    Iran’s leaders have been threatening for some time to ditch the dollar for a different currency. The shift towards euro took on added urgency after the appointment of Donald Trump and his decision to include Iran on a list of mainly Muslim majority countries banned from entering the US.

    Trump has also threatened to exit a 2015 nuclear deal Iran made with world powers. The next major test for the deal is 12 May when Trump will be required to re-endorse the deal, which he has derided as “the worst deal ever”.

    The move is seen by Iranian officials as a logical and necessary step. The threat of further US sanctions has destabilised Iran’s foreign exchange market in recent months. Bank transactions involving the dollar are already difficult for Iran; sanctions have made US banks unwilling to do business with Tehran; foreign firms can be exposed to sanctions if they do Iranian deals in dollars, even if the operations involve non-US branches.

    According to Reuters, Ali Khamenei, who has welcomed the decision to replace the dollar, blamed foreign enemies for the “recent issues in the currency market” and asked Iran’s intelligence services to defuse the plots against the Islamic Republic.

  • "Ice Nine" Comes To China

    Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning,

    The war on cash has been going on for decades. The U.S. abolished the $500 bill in late 1969. (The old $500 bill featured a portrait of President William McKinley, by the way. I remember seeing a few when I was a kid.)

    Today’s $100 bill is only worth 10 cents on the dollar compared with the $100 bill of 1969.

    Europe will abolish the 500 euro this year. We all recall what happened in India in late 2016 when India abolished the 500 and 1,000 rupee notes (worth about $10 and $20, respectively); there was mass chaos as peasants lined up to turn in the old notes for digital credit.

    ATMs were shut down because the replacement notes were too big for the ATMs!

    Now the war on cash is being taken to a new level. China, the world’s most populous country and the world’s second-largest economy, has said that physical cash may soon become obsolete.

    China has huge digital payments platforms developed by their own companies Tencent and Alibaba, in addition to traditional credit and debit cards and mobile phone payments.

    Movements like this might start slowly, but they gain momentum and end quickly. Cash can be expensive to handle because vendors have to hire armored cars to move it, buy machines to count it, pay premiums to insure it and risk losses due to theft.

    Those costs only make sense if they can be spread among a high volume of cash. Once cash usage falls below that critical threshold, the handling costs per unit are too high and merchants quickly abandon cash altogether.

    China may be getting close to that tipping point, and will get there sooner if the government pushes cash off the ledge by regulation.

    This is consistent with the Communist plan for total control of their people.

    Once physical cash is gone, your liberty is gone because government can easily monitor and freeze all digital payments. The only recourse for the Chinese people once their cash is gone will be physical gold and silver.

    This brings me to what I’ve warned about for years…

    It’s what I call “ice-nine.” This refers to government’s ability to lock down the financial system in the next global crisis. And it won’t be just China.

    In the 2008 crisis, governments met the demand for liquidity by printing money, guaranteeing banks and money market funds and engaging in trillions of dollars of currency swaps.

    The problem is that the central banks still have not normalized their balance sheets and interest rates since the last crisis and are unlikely to be able to do so before the next one. Money printing won’t be an option, because central banks have printed too much already. Any more money printing would trigger a complete loss of confidence in fiat money and a mad scramble for hard assets.

    Instead of money printing, central banks and governments plan to lock down the system and not let investors get their money out.

    This will begin with money market funds and then spread quickly to bank accounts, ATMs and stock exchanges until the entire system is frozen.

    Then an international monetary conference will be convened to create a new global monetary standard, probably based on special drawing rights (SDRs), which will be printed by the trillions and handed out to governments to gradually reliquify the system.

    Governments can see this coming and are already taking steps to prepare for more extreme measures.

    A few years ago, the SEC changed the rules so that U.S. money market funds can suspend redemptions. Recently, China announced that it would follow suit and allow its money market funds to also suspend redemptions. Now China has halted trading in the stock of one of its largest companies, HNA.

    This comes on top of the government takeover of another giant Chinese corporation, Anbang Insurance, at the end of February.

    The bottom line is governments are preparing for ice-nine and the lockdown of banks and stock exchanges. That includes the U.S. government.

    You should prepare also by buying physical gold and silver to be kept outside the banking system.

  • Most Millionaires Expect To Live To 100 According To UBS

    Thanks to modern scientific advancements, people are living much longer than their ancestors – decades in fact. The average lifespan in China, the U.S. and the majority of Eastern Europe is now the late 70’s, while those living in Western Europe and Japan can expect to become octogenarians – according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). 

    Most millionaires, however, expect to live a century thanks to their ability to buy the healthiest, cleanest, lowest risk lifestyle. Statistically speaking, that’s true. 

    In the U.S., for example, the richest 1 percent of American women by income live more than 10 years longer than the poorest 1 percent, a 2016 study in the Journal of the American Medical Association found. For men, the gap between the richest and poorest Americans is almost 15 years. –Bloomberg

    In 1930, the average life expectancy for American men was only 58, and 62 for women, according to the SSA. 50 years before that, one could expect to live to around 35 years-old. 

    Expectations of living to 100 vary widely by country, with 76% of Germans expecting to become centenarians, while only 30% of Americans think they’ll make it that far. On average, 53% of investors with at least $1 million in investible assets say they expect to live to 100.

    Extending your life isn’t cheap

    The wealthy know that if they’re going to make it to 100, they will need to spend money on the best healthcare, food, exercise and other services that can extend life. Then of course, there’s all of the other standard living expenses one must plan for if one is to try and stick around as long as possible. 

    UBS says that 91% of the 5,000 investors surveyed are “making financial changes due to increased life expectancy.”

    The rich are more than willing to sacrifice money for extra longevity. Nine of 10 wealthy people agreed that “health is more important than wealth.” Asked by UBS how much of their fortune they’d be willing to give up “to guarantee an extra 10 years of healthy life,” the average responses varied by wealth level. Investors who are barely millionaires, with $1 million to $2 million in net worth, were willing to give up a third of their nest egg for an additional decade of life. Investors with more than $50 million were willing to part with almost half of their fortune. –Bloomberg

    In recent years, life expectancy of Americans has surprisingly declined for two years in a row, a phenomenon Bloomberg suggests is due in part to the country’s opioid abuse crisis. It could also be because Americans are fatter than ever, with 40% of adults considered obese, according to the CDC. 

    A troubling new report released Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that almost 40 percent of American adults and nearly 20 percent of adolescents are obese — the highest rates ever recorded for the U.S.

    “It’s difficult to be optimistic at this point,” said Dr. Frank Hu, chair of the Department of Nutrition at the Harvard School of Public Health. “The trend of obesity has been steadily increasing in both children and adults despite many public health efforts to improve nutrition and physical activity.” –NBC

    A study from Georgia Southern University revealed that it’s not just poor eating habits that’s causing Americans to pack on the pounds...extreme laziness and binge watching the latest Netflix series are also contributing factors.

    There’s still a huge amount of cheap, accessible, highly processed food available everywhere almost anytime,” says Hu. “And despite people doing more recreational activity these days, the overall activity level, household activity and occupational activity has decreased in recent years.”

    No wonder just 30% of the Americans millionaires UBS surveyed thought they’d make it to 100. That said, Bloomberg says they should cheer up – as the wealthy in the United States have been “increasingly insulated from the depressing health trends afflicting most Americans.” 

    A 2016 study by University of California at Berkeley professors Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman compared the death rates for American men aged 65 to 79 across several decades by wealth. If these men’s wealth placed them in the top 1 percent, their mortality rates in the early 1980s were 12 percent lower than average. Twenty-five years later, the wealthiest American men’s death rates had plunged to 40 percent below average. –Bloomberg

    Of course, if you’ve eaten yourself into a blissful state of deadly obesity, there’s always the hail mary option of freezing one’s body until science can find a way to cure whatever ails.

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Today’s News 22nd April 2018

  • Did The West Just Lose World War III By Forfeit?

    Authored by James George Jatras via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    In the fall of the year 1480, at a point not far from Moscow, two armies faced each other on the opposite banks of the Ugra River.

    On the one side were the forces of the Grand Duchy of Moscow, whose ruler, Grand Prince Ivan III (known as “the Great” and the “gatherer of the Russian lands”), had recently rejected further payment of tribute to the Great Horde.

    On the other were the forces of Grand Khan Ahmed bin Küchük, who had come to lay waste to Moscow and instruct the impudent Prince Ivan to mend his ways.

    For weeks the two assembled hosts glared at one another, each wary of crossing the water and becoming vulnerable to attack by the other.

    In the end, as though heeding the same inaudible signal, both withdrew and hastily returned home.

    Thus ended more than two centuries of the Tatar-Mongol yoke upon the land of the Rus’.

    Was this event, which came to be known as “the great standing on the Ugra River,” a model of what happened in Syria last week?

    Almost immediately upon reports of the staged chemical attack in Douma on April 7, speculation began as to the likely response from the west – which in reality meant from the United States, in turn meaning from President Donald J. Trump. Would Trump, who had repeatedly spoken harshly of his predecessors’ destructive and pointless misadventures in the Middle East, and who just days earlier had signaled his determination to withdraw the several thousand Americans (illegally) stationed in Syria, see through the obvious deception?

    Or, whether or not he really believed the patently untrue accusations of Syrian (and Russian) culpability, would Trump take punitive action against Syria? And if so, would it be a demonstrative pinprick of the sort inflicted almost exactly a year earlier in punishment for an obvious false flag chemical attack in Idlib? Or would we see something more “robust” (a word much beloved of laptop bombardiers in Washington) aimed at teaching a lesson to both Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his ally, Prince Ivan III’s obstreperous heir Russian President Vladimir Putin?

    The answer soon came on Twitter. Assad was an “animal.” Putin, Russia, and Iran were “responsible” for “many dead, including women and children, in mindless CHEMICAL attack” – “Big price to pay.”

    Around the world, people mentally braced for the worst. Would a global conflagration start in Syria with an American attack on Russian forces? A grim trepidation reminiscent of the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis gripped the hearts of those old enough to remember those thirteen days when the fate of all life on our planet was in doubt.

    Certainly there were enough voices in the US establishment egging Trump on. Besides, at home he still had the relentless pressure of the Mueller investigation, intensified by the FBI’s April 9 raid on his lawyer Michael Cohen. Trump’s only respite from the incessant hammering was his strike on Syria last year.

    During the first Cold War both American and Soviet forces took great care to avoid direct conflict, rightly afraid it could lead to uncontrolled escalation. But now, in this second Cold War, western commentators were positively giddy at the thought of killing Russians in Syria…

    …or rather killing more Russians, citing the slaughter of a disputed number of contractors (or “mercenaries” as western media and officials consistently called them, implying they deserved to have been exterminated). That’ll teach ‘em not to tangle with us! It was unclear whether the warning from Russian Chief of Staff General Valery Gerasimov that Russia would respond against an attack by striking both incoming weapons as well as the platforms that launched would be taken seriously.

    After a slight softening of tone by both Trump and Defense Secretary General James “Mad Dog” Mattis on April 12, during which a team from the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) was approaching Douma to conduct an on-site examination, there emerged a slim ray of hope that Trump would step back from acting on the transparently false provocation. (The slimness of any such hope was illustrated by the fact seemingly the most restrained of Trump’s advisers was somebody nicknamed “Mad Dog.”)

    When on the evening of Friday the Thirteenth (Washington time) news came that the US had initiated military action, together with France and (the country Russia had accused of staging the Douma fraud) the United Kingdom, many feared the worst. The hasty timing was clearly aimed at preempting the arrival of the OPCW inspectors.

    Of greater concern was the extent of the assault? If Russians were killed, Gerasimov was serious.

    As it turned out, the worst didn’t come. World War III didn’t happen. Or hasn’t – yet.

    In fact nothing much happened at all. According to the official US reports, something over a hundred missiles were launched at three targets. All missiles reached their targets – “Mission Accomplished!” The other side, however, claimed to have shot down roughly 75 percent of the incoming Tomahawks.

    In the end, the damage was even less than from the follow-up to Idlib last year. No one was reported killed, neither Syrian nor Russian nor Iranian. Western governments claimed to have struck a serious blow at Syria’s chemical weapons capability. Syrians and Russians scoffed that the missiles had hit empty buildings and that Syria had no CW to hit since 2014, as certified by the OPCW.

    In the aftermath of the missile show, media carried unverified reports that Trump had wanted a stronger campaign but deferred to Mattis’s caution, no doubt reflecting the views of professional military men who didn’t want to find out whether Gerasimov was bluffing. Mattis also reportedly wanted Congress to vote on any action before it was taken but was overruled by Trump.

    There was even some speculation that the whole thing was a charade worked out in cooperation with the Russians. Even if true (and it’s unlikely) the mere fact that Trump would have to engage in such a ruse speaks volumes about the weakness of his position. “Whatever Trump says, America is not coming out of Syria,” writes Patrick Buchanan. “We are going deeper in. Trump’s commitment to extricate us from these bankrupting and blood-soaked Middle East wars and to seek a new rapprochement with Russia is ‘inoperative’.”

    That’s clear from the comments of US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley.

    She states that America won’t disengage until three objectives have been met: that ISIS has been defeated (a pretext, since ISIS is on the ropes and remains alive only because of hostile actions taken by the US and others against Syria); Damascus is finally deterred from using chemical weapons (a falsehood, since they don’t have any); and Iran’s regional influence is blocked (which means we’re staying in effect permanently in preparation for a larger war against Iran and perhaps eventually Russia).

    The last point is unfortunately true, as plans are underway to beef up a Sunni anti-Iran bulwark in eastern Syria to cut off Tehran’s so-called “land bridge” the Mediterranean. Most Americans in Syria are to be replaced with a so-called Arab force – the “Arab NATO” touted last year in connection with Trump’s maiden foreign trip as president. (As though the one NATO we already have weren’t bad enough!)

    Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir has suggested troops from his country would participate. Aside from whether Riyadh can spare them from their ongoing task of wrecking Yemen, Saudi personnel are likely to become a prime target for Syrians itching to get a crack at their chief tormenters over the past seven years.

    So was anything really settled on April 13? On this occasion the West chose not to “cross the river,” much as Khan Ahmed’s force declined to do in 1480. For their part, the Russians in Syria, like their ancestors on the Ugra, were on defense and had no need to risk offensive action.

    Unfortunately, unlike the “the great standing on the Ugra River,” which resolved the question of Russian independence and sovereignty in that era, nothing has been resolved now. The question remains: will the US peacefully relinquish its position as the sole arbiter of authority, legality, and morality in a unipolar world in favor of a multipolar order where Russia’s and China’s legitimate interests and spheres of influence are respected? Or will we continue to risk plunging mankind into a global conflict?

    Syria remains a key arena where one path or the other will be taken to finally wrap up what US Army Major Danny Sjursen calls “Operation Flailing Empire.” The irony is that peacefully “losing” our pointless and dangerous attempt to rule the world would only be to Americans’ benefit. That’s what Trump promised in 2016. He hasn’t delivered and it’s increasingly doubtful he can.

    In the end, the threat of World War III hasn’t vanished. It has just been postponed.

  • What If A Nuke Goes Off In DC: Science Mag Simulates "The Unthinkable"

    Authored by Mitchell Waldrop via ScienceMag.com,

    At 11:15 on a Monday morning in May, an ordinary looking delivery van rolls into the intersection of 16th and K streets NW in downtown Washington, D.C., just a few blocks north of the White House. Inside, suicide bombers trip a switch.

    Instantly, most of a city block vanishes in a nuclear fireball two-thirds the size of the one that engulfed Hiroshima, Japan. Powered by 5 kilograms of highly enriched uranium that terrorists had hijacked weeks earlier, the blast smashes buildings for at least a kilometer in every direction and leaves hundreds of thousands of people dead or dying in the ruins.

    An electromagnetic pulse fries cellphones within 5 kilometers, and the power grid across much of the city goes dark. Winds shear the bomb’s mushroom cloud into a plume of radioactive fallout that drifts eastward into the Maryland suburbs.

    Roads quickly become jammed with people on the move – some trying to flee the area, but many more looking for missing family members or seeking medical help.

    It’s all make-believe, of course – but with deadly serious purpose.

    Known as National Planning Scenario 1 (NPS1), that nuclear attack story line originated in the 1950s as a kind of war game, a safe way for national security officials and emergency managers to test their response plans before having to face the real thing.

    Sixty years later, officials are still reckoning with the consequences of a nuclear catastrophe in regular NPS1 exercises. Only now, instead of following fixed story lines and predictions assembled ahead of time, they are using computers to play what-if with an entire artificial society: an advanced type of computer simulation called an agent-based model.

    Today’s version of the NPS1 model includes a digital simulation of every building in the area affected by the bomb, as well as every road, power line, hospital, and even cell tower. The model includes weather data to simulate the fallout plume. And the scenario is peopled with some 730,000 agents—a synthetic population statistically identical to the real population of the affected area in factors such as age, sex, and occupation. Each agent is an autonomous subroutine that responds in reasonably human ways to other agents and the evolving disaster by switching among multiple modes of behavior—for example, panic, flight, and efforts to find family members.

    The point of such models is to avoid describing human affairs from the top down with fixed equations, as is traditionally done in such fields as economics and epidemiology. Instead, outcomes such as a financial crash or the spread of a disease emerge from the bottom up, through the interactions of many individuals, leading to a real-world richness and spontaneity that is otherwise hard to simulate.

    That kind of detail is exactly what emergency managers need, says Christopher Barrett, a computer scientist who directs the Biocomplexity Institute at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech) in Blacksburg, which developed the NPS1 model for the government. The NPS1 model can warn managers, for example, that a power failure at point X might well lead to a surprise traffic jam at point Y. If they decide to deploy mobile cell towers in the early hours of the crisis to restore communications, NPS1 can tell them whether more civilians will take to the roads, or fewer. “Agent-based models are how you get all these pieces sorted out and look at the interactions,” Barrett says.

    The downside is that models like NPS1 tend to be big—each of the model’s initial runs kept a 500-microprocessor computing cluster busy for a day and a half—forcing the agents to be relatively simple-minded. “There’s a fundamental trade-off between the complexity of individual agents and the size of the simulation,” says Jonathan Pfautz, who funds agent-based modeling of social behavior as a program manager at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency in Arlington, Virginia.

    But computers keep getting bigger and more powerful, as do the data sets used to populate and calibrate the models. In fields as diverse as economics, transportation, public health, and urban planning, more and more decision-makers are taking agent-based models seriously. “They’re the most flexible and detailed models out there,” says Ira Longini, who models epidemics at the University of Florida in Gainesville, “which makes them by far the most effective in understanding and directing policy.”

    A plume of radioactive fallout (yellow) stretches east across Washington, D.C., a few hours after a nuclear bomb goes off near the White House in this snapshot of an agent-based model. Bar heights show the number of people at a location, while color indicates their health. Red represents sickness or death.

     

    The roots of agent-based modeling go back at least to the 1940s, when computer pioneers such as Alan Turing experimented with locally interacting bits of software to model complex behavior in physics and biology. But the current wave of development didn’t get underway until the mid-1990s.

    One early success was Sugarscape, developed by economists Robert Axtell of George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia, and Joshua Epstein of New York University (NYU) in New York City. Because their goal was to simulate social phenomena on ordinary desktop computers, they pared agent-based modeling down to its essence: a set of simple agents that moved around a grid in search of “sugar”—a foodlike resource that was abundant in some places and scarce in others. Though simple, the model gave rise to surprisingly complex group behaviors such as migration, combat, and neighborhood segregation.

    Another milestone of the 1990s was the Transportation Analysis and Simulation System (Transims), an agent-based traffic model developed by Barrett and others at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico. Unlike traditional traffic models, which used equations to describe moving vehicles en masse as a kind of fluid, Transims modeled each vehicle and driver as an agent moving through a city’s road network. The simulation included a realistic mix of cars, trucks, and buses, driven by people with a realistic mix of ages, abilities, and destinations. When applied to the road networks in actual cities, Transims did better than traditional models at predicting traffic jams and local pollution levels—one reason why Transims-inspired agent-based models are now a standard tool in transportation planning.

    A similar shift was playing out for epidemiologists. For much of the past century, they have evaluated disease outbreaks with a comparatively simple set of equations that divide people into a few categories—such as susceptible, contagious, and immune—and that assume perfect mixing, meaning that everybody in the affected region is in contact with everyone else. Those equation-based models were run first on paper and then on computers, and they are still used widely. But epidemiologists are increasingly turning to agent-based models to include factors that the equations ignore, such as geography, transportation networks, family structure, and behavior change—all of which can strongly affect how disease spreads. During the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, for example, the Virginia Tech group used an agent-based model to help the U.S. military identify sites for field hospitals. Planners needed to know where the highest infection rates would be when the mobile units finally arrived, how far and how fast patients could travel over the region’s notoriously bad roads, and a host of other issues not captured in the equations of traditional models.

    In another example, Epstein’s laboratory at NYU is working with the city’s public health department to model potential outbreaks of Zika, a mosquito-borne virus that can lead to catastrophic birth defects. The group has devised a model that includes agents representing all 8.5 million New Yorkers, plus a smaller set of agents representing the entire population of individual mosquitoes, as estimated from traps. The model also incorporates data on how people typically move between home, work, school, and shopping; on sexual behavior (Zika can be spread through unprotected sex); and on factors that affect mosquito populations, such as seasonal temperature swings, rainfall, and breeding sites such as caches of old tires. The result is a model that not only predicts how bad such an outbreak could get—something epidemiologists could determine from equations—but also suggests where the worst hot spots might be.

    In economics, agent-based models can be a powerful tool for understanding global poverty, says Stéphane Hallegatte, an economist at the World Bank in Washington, D.C. If all you look at are standard metrics such as gross domestic product (GDP) and total income, he says, then in most countries you’re seeing only rich people: The poor have so little money that they barely register.

    To do better, Hallegatte and his colleagues are looking at individual families. His team built a model with agents representing 1.4 million households around the globe—roughly 10,000 per country—and looked at how climate change and disasters might affect health, food security, and labor productivity. The model estimates how storms or drought might affect farmers’ crop yields and market prices, or how an earthquake might cripple factory workers’ incomes by destroying their cars, the roads, or even the factories.

    The model suggests something obvious: Poor people are considerably more vulnerable to disaster and climate change than rich people. But Hallegatte’s team saw a remarkable amount of variation. If the poor people in a particular country are mostly farmers, for example, they might actually benefit from climate change when global food prices rise. But if the country’s poor people are mostly packed into cities, that price rise could hurt badly.

    That kind of granularity has made it easier for the World Bank to tailor its recommendations to each country’s needs, Hallegatte says—and much easier to explain the model’s results in human terms rather than economic jargon. “Instead of telling a country that climate change will decrease their GDP by X%,” he says, “you can say that 10 million people will fall into poverty. That’s a number that’s much easier to understand.”

    Given how much is at stake in those simulations, Barrett says, users always want to know why they should trust the results. How can they be sure that the model’s output has anything to do with the real world—especially in cases such as nuclear disasters, which have no empirical data to go on?

    Barrett says that question has several answers.

    First, users shouldn’t expect the models to make specific predictions about, say, a stock market crash next Tuesday. Instead, most modelers accommodate the inevitable uncertainties by averaging over many runs of each scenario and displaying a likely range of outcomes, much like landfall forecasts for hurricanes. That still allows planners to use the model as a test bed to game out the consequences of taking action A, B, or C.

    Second, Barrett says, the modelers should not just slap the model together and see whether the final results make sense. Instead, they should validate the model as they build it, looking at each piece as they slot it in—how people get to and from work, for example—and matching it to real-world data from transit agencies, the census, and other sources. “At every step, there is data that you’re calibrating to,” he says.

    Modelers should also try to calibrate agents’ behaviors by using studies of human psychology. Doing so can be tricky—humans are complicated—but in crisis situations, modeling behavior becomes easier because it tends to be primal. The NPS1 model, for example, gets by with built-in rules that cause the agents to shift back and forth among just a few behaviors, such as “health care–seeking,” “shelter-seeking,” and “evacuating.”

    Even so, field studies point to crucial nuances, says Julie Dugdale, an artificial intelligence researcher at the University of Grenoble in France who studies human behavior under stress. “In earthquakes,” she says, “we find that people will be more afraid of being without family or friends than of the crisis itself.” People will go looking for their loved ones first thing and willingly put themselves in danger in the process. Likewise in fires, Dugdale says. Engineers tend to assume that when the alarm sounds, people will immediately file toward the exits in an orderly way. But just watch the next time your building has a fire drill, she says: “People don’t evacuate without first talking to others”—and if need be, collecting friends and family.

    The evidence also suggests that blind, unthinking panic is rare. In an agent-based model published in 2011, sociologist Ben Aguirre and his colleagues at the University of Delaware in Newark tried to reproduce what happened in a 2003 Rhode Island nightclub fire. The crowds jammed together so tightly that no one could move, and 100 people died. Between the police, the local paper, and survivors’ accounts, Aguirre’s team had good data on the victims, their behavior, and their relationships to others. And when the researchers incorporated those relationships into the model, he says, the runs most consistent with the actual fire involved almost no panic at all. “We found that people were trying to get out with friends, co-workers, and loved ones,” Aguirre says. “They were not trying to hurt each other. That was a happenstance.”

    The NPS1 model tries to incorporate such insights, sending its agents into “household reconstitution” mode (searching for friends and family) much more often than “panic” mode (running around with no coherent goal). And the results can sometimes be counterintuitive. For example, the model suggests that right after the strike, emergency managers should expect to see some people rushing toward ground zero, jamming the roads in a frantic effort to pick up children from school or find missing spouses. The model also points to a good way to reduce chaos: to quickly restore partial cell service, so that people can verify that their loved ones are safe.

    If agent-based modelers have a top priority, it’s to make the simulations easier to build, run, and use—not least because that would make them more accessible to real-world decision-makers.

    Epstein, for example, envisions national centers where decision-makers could access what he calls a petabyte playbook: a library containing digital versions of every large city, with precomputed models of just about every potential hazard. “Then, if something actually happens, like a toxic plume,” he says, “we could pick out the model that’s the closest match and do near–real-time calculation for things like the optimal mix of shelter-in-place and evacuation.”

    At Virginia Tech, computer scientist Madhav Marathe is thinking along the same lines. When a Category-5 hurricane is bearing down, he says, someone like the mayor of San Juan can’t be waiting around for a weeklong analysis of the storm’s possible impact on Puerto Rico’s power grid. She needs information that’s actionable, he says—”and that means models with a simple interface, running in the cloud, delivering very sophisticated analytics in a very short period of time.”

    Marathe calls it “agent-based modeling as a service.” His lab has already spent the past 4 years developing and testing a web-based tool that lets public health officials build pandemic simulations and do what-if analyses on their own, without having to hire programmers. With just a few clicks, users can specify key variables such as the region of interest, from as small as a single city to the entire United States, and the type of disease, such as influenza, measles, Ebola, or something new. Then, using the tool’s built-in maps and graphs, users can watch the simulation unfold and see the effect of their proposed treatment protocols.

    Despite being specialized for epidemics, Marathe says, the tool’s underlying geographic models and synthetic populations are general, and they can be applied to other kinds of disasters, such as chemical spills, hurricanes, and cascading failures in power networks. Ultimately, he says, “the hope is to build such models into services that are individualized—for you, your family, or your city.” Or, as Barrett puts it, “If I send Jimmy to school today, what’s the probability of him getting Zika?”

    So it won’t just be bureaucrats using those systems, Barrett adds. It will be you. “It will be as routine as Google Maps.”

  • Visualizing The Pension Time Bomb: $400 Trillion By 2050

    Are governments making promises about pensions that they might not be able to keep?

    According to an analysis by the World Economic Forum (WEF), there was a combined retirement savings gap in excess of $70 trillion in 2015, spread between eight major economies..

    As Visual Capitalist’s Jeff Desjardins notes, The WEF says the deficit is growing by $28 billion every 24 hours – and if nothing is done to slow the growth rate, the deficit will reach $400 trillion by 2050, or about five times the size of the global economy today.

    The group of economies studied: Canada, Australia, Netherlands, Japan, India, China, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

    MIND THE GAP

    Today’s infographic comes to us from Raconteur, and it illuminates a growing problem attached to an aging population (and those that will be supporting it).

    Since social security programs were initially developed, the circumstances around work and retirement have shifted considerably. Life expectancy has risen by three years per decade since the 1940s, and older people are having increasingly long life spans. With the retirement age hardly changing in most economies, this longevity means that people are spending longer not working without the savings to justify it.

    This problem is amplified by the size of generations and fertility rates. The population of retirees globally is expected to grow from 1.5 billion to 2.1 billion between 2017-2050, while the number of workers for each retiree is expected to halve from eight to four over the same timeframe.

    The WEF has made clear that the situation is not trivial, likening the scenario to “financial climate change”:

    The anticipated increase in longevity and resulting ageing populations is the financial equivalent of climate change

    -Michael Drexler, Head of Financial and Infrastructure Systems, WEF

    Like climate change, some of the early signs of this retirement savings gap can be “sandbagged” for the time being – but if not handled properly in the medium and long term, the adverse effects could be overwhelming.

    FUTURE PROOFING

    While implementing various system reforms like raising the retirement age will help, ultimately the money in the system has to come from somewhere. Social security programs will need to cut benefits, increase taxes, or borrow from somewhere else in the government’s budget to make up for the coming shortfalls.

    In the United States specifically, it is expected that the Social Security trust fund will run out by 2034. At that point, there will only be enough revenue coming in to pay out approximately 77% of benefits.

  • Germany's Largest Public TV News Broadcaster: Syria Chemical Attack "Most Likely Staged"

    A senior correspondent for German state media broadcast ZDF heute stunned his European audience during a report from on the ground in Syria when he gave a straightforward and honest account of his findings while investigating what happened in Douma. The veteran reporter, Uli Gack, interviewed multiple eyewitnesses of the April 7 alleged chemical attack and concluded of the testimonials, “the Douma chemical attack is most likely staged, a great many people here seem very convinced.”

    It appears that all local Syrians encountered by the German public broadcast reporter were immediately dismissive of the widespread allegation that the Syrian government gassed civilians, which the US, UK, France, and Israel used a pretext for launching missile strikes on Damascus.

    ZDF heute: The world continues to puzzle over whether the banned chemical weapons were used in Douma. ZDF correspondent Uli Gack is in Syria for us: “you were in a large refugee camp today and talked to a lot of people – what did you hear about the attack there?” Gack responded, “the Douma chemical attack is most likely staged, a great many people here seem very convinced.”

    The German ZDF report is consistent with veteran British journalist Robert Fisk’s investigation upon being the first Western journalist to gain access to the site in Douma. Fisk reported early this week, “There are the many people I talked to amid the ruins of the town who said they had ‘never believed in’ gas stories–which were usually put about, they claimed, by the armed Islamist groups.”

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    ZDF (Zweites Deutsches Fernsehen) is one of Germany’s largest and oldest state-owned channels, which is funded in part through citizens paying a household licensing fee, and Heute is perhaps the most visible public news program in all of Germany.

    According to the live report, some witnesses told ZDF that Islamist rebels killed victims with chlorine, filmed the scenes, then claimed an ‘Assad chemical attack’. Though interviewing “a great many people [who] seem convinced” that a chemical attack did not actually happen, the reporter did not attempt to censor what he consistently heard from locals who were said to be in the area when the events occurred.

    Increasingly, it appears that mainstream media gate-keepers are losing it over the fact that so many highly visible and respected reporters and broadcasters have featured reports this week which publicly question the Syrian chemical attack narrative and US coalition missile strikes that followed.

    One writer for the Guardian and Daily Beast who is a well-known pro regime-change advocate, for example, laments that “disinformation has taken hold” on Syria. In a series of tweets following Robert Fisk’s bombshell report for the Independent, Emma Beals, who often simply parrots whatever her ‘rebel’ sources tell her reacted to the recent profusion of high profile pundits questioning the established narrative on major British platforms

    Beals wrote:

    My educated and informed friends are emailing me en masse asking me about what’s going on in Syria because “it’s so hard to work out the truth.” Having spent years busting a gut to dig it out, it’s heartbreaking to see the extent to which disinformation has taken hold.

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    Beals advocates what we recently described as the highly simplistic “Disney version” of events in Syria:

    Syrian War for Dummies: Disney Version–

    Once upon a time, a country called Syria was ruled by a ruthless dictator named Bashar Al-Assad. He was a cruel man who gassed his own people. His actions caused a civil war in Syria. America and Europe tried their best to stop the devastating civil war, and even generously accepted many Syrian refugees. Eventually America went to Syria, defeated ISIS, and is now trying to restore stability.

    This above version is quite popular among many Americans and Europeans and the Western mainstream media.

    Meanwhile, almost simultaneous to German TV’s ZDF heute report from Syria, lawyers of the Bundestag (German federal parliament) issued a legal brief on the US-led strike on Syria. The government lawyers’ report was requested by the left-wing party Die Linke in response to the US coalition missile strikes which primarily targeted facilities in and around Damascus.

    “The deployment of military force against a state to punish it for breaking an international convention is a violation of the international law prohibiting violence,” reads the report, as cited by the German Press agency DPA and translated by Sputnik.

    The legal report further concluded that the US-led attack on Syria – which skirted the UN – but which was supported by the German government (though without German military participation) was based in chemical attack claims that the legal team deemed “not convincing”

  • Useful Idiots? New Yorker Magazine Fails Litmus Test For Media Impartiality On Syrian War

    Authored by Robert Bridge via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    When America’s top thinking-man’s journal fails to consider at least one possible alternative as to who may have been responsible for the latest alleged chemical attack in Syria, aside from the ‘Assad regime,’ then we may conclude that the entire mainstream media complex is receiving its marching orders from above.

    In an April 14 article in the erstwhile prestigious New Yorker magazine (“Russia’s ‘Madman’ Routine in Syria May Have Averted Direct Confrontation with the U.S., For Now”), author Joshua Yaffa singlehandedly proves there is absolutely no straying from the government-approved narrative that Syrian President Bashar Assad is guilty of carrying out an alleged chemical attack in Douma on April 7. He also manages to pull Russia into the elaborate conspiracy theory, which is now accepted as bona-fide truth in the Western world.

    “Moscow welcomes Assad’s defeat of the rebels, and has little concern for how he achieves it, but the use of chemical weapons is an embarrassment and source of unwelcome consequences for the Kremlin,” Yaffa writes with breathtaking arrogance, refusing to entertain the much more likely scenario that the rebel terrorists were responsible for the purported attack. 

    “One unresolved question is whether Russia … got assurances from Syria that it would refrain from using chemical weapons in the future.”

    For any person with even a limited amount of critical thinking skills, this cannot be considered objective and impartial journalism in any sense of the word. Yet it is a prime example of what Western readers are being force-fed on a daily basis: Assad is guilty of carrying out a chemical attack on innocent civilians, nothing else to look at here, please move along [Thus far, there has been one notable exception to this rule, which has not been picked up by the US media, and never will be. Robert Fisk, a veteran British reporter of the Middle East, traveled to Douma for a first-hand account of the alleged attack for The Independent. After a lengthy fact-finding trip, which included interviews with numerous witnesses and medical staff, Fisk revealed what so many people had suspected: there was no chemical attack. The event was entirely staged by the notorious White Helmets ‘rescue group’].

    Consider the way UK broadcaster Sky News cut short Major-General Jonathan Shaw, a formerly high-ranking British Army officer, as he attempted to question what motive Bashar Assad would have had in carrying out a gas attack at this crucial juncture.

    “The debate that seems to be missing from this is… What possible motive could have triggered Syria to launch this chemical attack at this time in this place?” Shaw ventured to ask.

    “The Syrians are winning, don’t take my word for it, take the American military’s word for it.”

    At that point, the interview was quickly terminated for a commercial break. Needless to say, Sky News and other Western media won’t be inviting Shaw back for his expert analysis anytime in the near future.

    As if this even needs to be said, the function of the media is not to parrot the government line, but to challenge it every step of the way – and even more so when the consequences of failing to do so could result in the outbreak of a major conflict, possibly even World War III. Apparently that is a risk the useful idiots of the Western mainstream media are willing to take.

    In reality, to call these journalists ‘useful’ would be an exaggeration, because they are actually not being very useful at all. By dutifully refusing to consider, even in passing, other alternatives in Syria they have betrayed their allegiances, which is obviously not to the pursuit of truth. To assume your audience is so blissfully ignorant that they cannot imagine other scenarios regarding the chemical attack in Syria for themselves only serves to further alienate the mainstream media monsters from their subscribers. Thus, Western journalists are not ‘useful idiots’ per se; they are simply being idiots.

    Incidentally, this explains in a nutshell why the masters of the mainstream media universe are so terribly anxious to silence alternative media voices from the Internet. The existence of dissenting, unscripted voices throws into stark contrast just how biased, prejudiced and undemocratic the Western press has become. Better to manipulate the Internet algorithms than to risk Western audiences hearing voices that challenge the official narrative.

    Once again, the ridiculously obvious question needs to be asked since the Western mainstream media refuses to:

    Why would Assad, who was defeating the rebels on every military front with modern military technologies, resort to the most primitive and egregious form of military methods imaginable, that of chemical weapons?

    Why would he commit the one act that would undoubtedly bring NATO members into the fray, thereby destroying the results of an 8-year struggle?

    The short answer is he would not.

    Not in a million years. However, even if the Western media stubbornly refuses to consider that line of reasoning, it fails to explain why they were unanimously blaming Assad for the attack when experts from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) had not yet arrived in Douma to conduct their forensics work. Instead, they cast aside their journalistic duties in favor of serving as mindless cheerleaders for war.

    Yaffa took the hysteria a notch higher, however, when he suggested that it was Russia that was behaving like a “madman” in Syria by warning it would

    “Whether thanks to their successful “madman” routine, or the success of arguments for restraint by U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis, Putin and his generals must be pleased,” Yaffa wrote, apparently disheartened that something worked to put the brakes on full-blown military action in Syria.

    “The Russian effort to preemptively terrify the West into limiting its military operations in Syria began last month, when Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s top military officer, warned that Moscow would shoot down missiles fired at Syrian territory—and, what’s more, if Russian forces came under threat, would strike back by targeting launch facilities and platforms,” Yaffa wrote.

    Strange that even the prospect of Russia actually proclaiming it would defend itself from an outright attack is deemed the delusional ranting of a “madman.” Such is the position of the Western media as it continues to perpetuate the myth of a Russian bogeyman as it works to undermine peace in favor of yet another regime change operation.

    Clearly, alternative voices in the deeply compromised mainstream media jungle are needed now more than ever.

  • 1 In 4 Millennials Rely On Their Parents To Pay Some Bills – Even While Working Full Time

    Time and time again, we’ve discussed how America’s millennial generation is burdened by debt, effectively precluded from home ownership and increasingly disgruntled and pessimistic about their future prospects for wealth and happiness.

    Debt

    In its latest Global Wealth Report, Credit Suisse said the millennial generation has faced “a run of bad luck”, much of which was centered around the financial crisis.

    “The “Millennials” – people who came of age after the turn of the century – have had a run of bad luck, most clearly in developed markets. Capital losses in the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 and high subsequent unemployment have dealt serious blows to young workers and savers. Add rising student debt in several developed countries, tighter mortgage rules after 2008, higher house prices, increased income inequality, less access to pensions and lower income mobility and you have a “perfect storm” holding back wealth accumulation by the Millennials in many countries.”

    And maybe as a consequence of this “bad luck” (or perhaps because of their sense of entitlement and their unwillingness to seek challenging careers in the sciences or engineering fields), millennials also outrank previous generations in another area: The unprecedented number of people in their mid-to-late 20s (and some even later) who are still living with their parents, or relying on some form of financial help from their parents. Even some who have full time jobs.

    Millennials

    To that end, CNBC recently pointed out a study showing that nearly a quarter of millennials who are fully employed report receiving help from their parents.

    The survey, conducted by Instamonitor, involved 800 millennials, defined as those between the ages of 18 and 34.

    Two

    The most common bills paid for by parents were cell phones – 54% – and car insurance – 31%.

    “For some millennials, especially those just transitioning into adulthood, it can take some time to get to the point where they don’t need their parents’ help,” said certified financial planner Marguerita Cheng, CEO of Blue Ocean Global Wealth in Gaithersburg, Maryland.

    “I’d never tell a parent not to help their kids, but they do need to set parameters,” Cheng said.

    The more than 75.4 million millennials generally face financial challenges that their parents did not, CNBC concludes. And it’s not just that they’re carrying $1.4 trillion in student loan debt – their wages are lower than their parents’ wages were when they were in their 20s (when adjusted for inflation, of course).

    A 2017 study of Federal Reserve data by advocacy group Young Invincibles showed that millennials earned an average of $40,581 in 2013. That’s 20 percent less than the inflation-adjusted $50,910 earned baby boomers in 1989.

    Three

    As one might expect, a separate study conducted by CreditCards.com last year found that parents report higher rates of helping out their adult children – with as many as 74% of parents saying they provided some form of financial support.

    Of course, as CNBC points out, for many millennials, accepting support from their parents comes with some uncomfortable strings, like allowing parents to monitor your spending to a certain degree.

    Which is why it recommends that all adult children should have “an exit strategy” by having a pre-set date in mind for when they will take over paying whatever bill their parents hep them with.

    But since many of the jobs being created by the US’s allegedly “tight” labor market are part-time gigs (and what’s worse, wage growth across industries has been stagnant) – and pretty much all high-paying career-track jobs requiring advanced degrees or some specialized skill like software programming – we wonder whether a growing number of millennials are coming to terms with the idea that they might need to rely on their parents forever.

  • Citi: "2018 Is Not Going To Plan"

    Discussing recent trends in the bond market, Citi’s credit strategists point out that there have been a lot of surprised traders this year, because i) the first half was supposed to be fine “like last year”, and ii) IG was supposed to keep outperforming HY.

    And yet, contrary to expectations, both investment grade and junk bond spreads blew out in the past few months, catalyzed by the spike in real yields, the February VIX/vol ETN fiasco, the surge in $ Libor and the recent escalation in the US Chinese trade war…

    … which in turn has sent the HY/IG ratio tumbling, as junk has sharply outperformed IG.

    This led Citi’s Hans Lorenzen to conclude the “2018 is not going to plan“, prompting him to ask what’s going on: “a succession of unhappy coincidences or something deeper?”

    This paradox is accentuated when considering that the fundamentals behind credit corporates still remain sound, including corporate deleveraging among the Top 25 largest companies, a thrifty approach to spending cash and not lavishing shareholders…

    … which also mean there has been little rating deterioration and more positive than negative reviews.

    Other favorable catalysts include contained corporate supply (as in no net issuance to buy for private investors when taking the ECB’s CSPP in consideration), a relentless bid from the ECB even as deposits have continued to accumulate across Eurozone banks, with the ECB’s negative deposit rates having little impact on savings.

    And yet, Citi notes that while fundamentals do support tight credit spreads…

    … they do not support spreads “this tight.”

    But what got us here in the first place? We will spare readers Lorenzen’s favorite chart, which shows the unprecedented increase in central bank balance sheets in the past decade…

    … or rather we won’t, because as Citi’s bank strategist writes, what got us here is “central bank distortions” which have manifested themselves in three main ways:

    1. Money crowded out of govt bond space flows into IG (and HY) credit, boosting private demand. Quantity reduces already in Jan. 2018.
    2. CSPP reduces quantity of bonds available to private investors until Sep./Dec. 2018
    3. Negative deposit rate raises opportunity cost of not taking risk boosting private demand. No change in the Eurozone until 2019, but watch Fed’s impact on $ curve

    However, as central bank purchases diminish, the equilibrium shown above will shift again, resulting in far higher spreads.

    Ok fine, but everyone knows that QE is ending: the phase out will be predictable and priced in, plus since the ECB only buys IG bonds, it’s most an IG factor. Well, maybe not: consider the following correlations showing the dramatic impact QE has had on HY spreads.

    Of course, it was all fun and games for years, when thanks to QE from either the Fed, BOJ or QE, the net supply of securities was negative, or in other words, “when there’s more money than assets, everything rises.”

    But that too is changing, and over the next few months, the net supply of securities in advanced economies is set to soar, begging the question: who will replace the ECB’s buying at these record high prices.

    Said otherwise, there is a $1 trillion increase in the private funding requirement in 2018. At what yields – or equity prices – will this happen?

    So as we trek on while central banks continue to pump less and less liquidity, the sweet spot for credit is becoming an “ever thinner wedge” as shown in the right-hand chart below prompting some potentially adverse outcomes including a restrictive central bank policy, policy efficacy in doubt, and in the context of policy mistake fears and blowing out spreads, a recession. Meanwhile, Eurozone monetary policy has rarely been looser, meaning that as the ECB tightens, the only outcome is an adverse one.

    Meanwhile, in the next unintended consequence, as economic slack diminishes, debt financing is likely to increase…. just as yields start blowing out and the biggest net buyer – the world’s biggest hedge fund, the ECB – heads for the exit.

    Which brings us back to square one: will the central bank exit be enough to catalyze the next crash? Lorenzen’s answer is that the CB exit may be too obvious a trigger to launch the next drop in risk assets, it reintroduces all those vulnerabilities that will facilitate it, and which the market largely has ignored for years.

    What happens next? The simple answer, as such a coordinated global withdrawal of liquidity has never before been attempted, is that nobody knows, but according to Citi, as the central bank backstop moves “out of the money”, volatility should increase and risk/reward finally become more asymmetric…

    … resulting in the following preferred trade strategies as we finally enter the uncharted territories of the “great unknown”, which maximize carry relative to beta (translation: have one foot out of the market).

    Lorenzen’s conclusion: the artificial central bank “sugar high” is almost over, leading to growing risk of a major market tantrum, keeping Citi as underinvested in the market as possible.

  • Trump Is Getting Angrier…

    Angrier and angrier and angrier…

    President Trump’s use of ‘anger words’ has soared this year.

    h/t @dtchimp

    Can you blame him?

    Is it working?

  • It's Do-Or-Die For Tech Stocks

    Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com,

    In early March I mused about a market paradox, one where tech would make new highs on a negative divergence while the $DJIA would not make a new high. This event did indeed transpire and it still may have significant implications as it is so very reminiscent of the action we saw in the year 2000. Same time frame too. Since the correction phase commenced in February we have seen plenty of volatility and solid 2 way action as one would expect during a correction. Yet key to watch during these movements is the emergence of patterns and assess their relevance as they may be indicative of the next big move.

    Curiously, as volatile as the action has been $NDX, as an index, does not appear to show much of a correction at all in context of its longer term quarterly trend, hence I asked yesterday:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    If Q1 represents a larger correction then please tell me where there is evidence that the most valued and overbought sector, tech, has actually corrected.

    We haven’t even tagged the quarterly 5 EMA on $NDX and it’s up 6 quarters in a row. All we’ve had is another higher low and an intra-quarter dip. That suggests a pullback in context of an overbought spike, but no correction. A correction should leave some evidence that there actually has been one. No, from my perch this means that tech has yet to properly correct.

    Given the high on a negative divergence and $DJIA failing to make a new high can we draw any conclusions yet as to the next larger move?

    Frankly, not quite yet, but charts are suggesting that next week may be very pivotal for tech in particular. A do or die moment.

    Zooming in on the weekly chart of $NDX we can observe this pattern:

    It has a very distinct heads and shoulders pattern feel to it, but it’s an unconfirmed pattern.

    I mentioned 2000 at the beginning of this post and this is what the structure looked like back then and note the right shoulder build on April:

    Freaky no?

    ..which then was sold into May:

    So why is next week then so important? Because some of the larger tech companies have yet to report earnings. As their market caps are so tremendously impactful the reaction to their reports will likely determine whether we will see this pattern repeat or whether it will become invalidated.

    Hence a quick high level technical look at some of the key tech stocks:

    $FB: Broken trend line, below the weekly 50MA:

    Can it recover? Sure, but its PR woes are not going to disappear anytime soon. Be curious to see how how many people deleted their accounts. I finally had enough myself and deleted mine, the data mining being secondary to the fact that I just saw no real utility for my life. But my view is irrelevant. Fact is this stock has yet to enter a major correction, but we have a trend line break and it’s a warning sign.

    $MSFT: Q1 saw 2 trend lines tags and the stock is back to near all time highs. The stock has more than doubled since 2016 and I see no technical damage at this stage. It could well go on to make new highs. Its earnings report reaction will be key:

    $NFLX has reported and made a new high on a negative weekly divergence. The stock is up 75% in 2018.

    $AMZN remains above all trend lines, but like $NDX, could be setting up for an H&S pattern and right shoulder build here:

    $GOOGL also held its trend line and has bounced off of its positive divergence. It could go higher still, yet if the trend line breaks it’s lights out and we can target the lower open gap. Lower highs so far.

    $AAPL: What correction?

    So these big boys have yet to see a sizable correction of any sort as far as I’m concerned and next week may well be a do or die moment for tech.

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Today’s News 21st April 2018

  • Russia Exposes British Lies On Skripal, But Trail Leads To US

    Authored by M.K. Bhadrakumar via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    Moscow says it has proof that the agent used in the UK attack is a chemical weapon patented in the US. So was this a covert operation aimed at ratcheting up tensions between the West and Russia?

    The sensational case of the poisoning of the ex-MI6 agent and former Russian military intelligence colonel Sergei Skripal on March 4 in Salisbury, in the UK, is becoming more and more curious. Under a blinding spotlight from Moscow, the British allegation regarding a Russian hand in the poisoning of Skripal is getting exposed. An engrossing plot in big-power politics is also unfolding. There is stuff here for a Le Carre novel.

    Are we witnessing a replay of the false flag Gulf of Tonkin attack of August 1964, the imaginary “incident” concocted by the US military to provide legal and political justification for deploying American forces in South Vietnam and for commencing open warfare against North Vietnam?

    To recap, Britain alleged without any empirical evidence that a military grade nerve agent of a type known as Novichok was used in Salisbury, saying it was originally developed in the former Soviet Union, and therefore, Moscow’s hand – possibly, even President Vladimir Putin’s hand – was “highly likely”.

    Moscow has maintained, on the other hand, that it had destroyed all its chemical weapons and an Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) investigation verified and testified to that.

    The British allegation quickly morphed into a large-scale expulsion of Russian diplomats (over 100 of them) by western capitals, under heavy pressure from Washington and London. The US alone expelled 60 Russian diplomats, while Britain expelled 23.

    Egg on May’s face

    Britain is studiously ignoring the Russian requests for samples of the chemical agent used in the Salisbury attack and for consular access to be granted to the former spy’s daughter Yulia. Meanwhile, Britain instead approached the OPCW to investigate.

    The OPCW has now responded that it cannot identify the country of origin of the chemical agent used in the Salisbury attack.

    There is egg on PM Theresa May’s face.

    However, Russians managed to get their hands on the report prepared for the OPCW by its reputed laboratory in Spiez, the Swiss Center for Radiology and Bacteriological Analysis. According to the Swiss lab’s report, the chemical formula used in the Salisbury attack has been in service in the US, the UK and other NATO countries. Furthermore, neither the Soviet Union nor Russia “ever developed or stockpiled similar chemical weapons.”

    That’s more egg on May’s face.

    Now comes the bombshell. On April 18, Moscow disclosed that it has formally handed over to the OPCW proof to the effect that the Novichok agent purportedly used in the Salisbury attack actually happens to be patented as a chemical weapon in 2015 in the US and produced in that country. (By the way, unlike Russia, the US is yet to destroy its chemical weapon stockpiles, as required under the Chemical Weapons Convention of 1997.)

    Now, not only the British government but Washington too has some explaining to do.

    Was Skripal attack a covert op by the West?

    Simply put, the Salisbury attack might even have been an Anglo-American joint covert operation undertaken with the ulterior motive to ratchet up tensions between the West and Russia. (The Washington Post reported on Monday that the former National Security Advisor HR McMaster might have hoodwinked President Donald Trump into approving the expulsion under the wrong notion that similar numbers of expulsions by European allies was in the pipeline. In the event though, the Europeans made only token expulsions.)

    Britain is steadily edging away from the Skripal case, hoping, perhaps, that the matter will die down. But will Moscow let Britain off the hook?

    On their part, the Russians seem to be holding back on some explosive information pointing toward the US’s direct complicity in this affair.

    Indeed, if this was McMaster’s swan song, the indefatigable Russophobe probably hoped to kill two birds with one shot – push Russia’s relations with the West to a crisis point and second, scotch the prospects of an early US-Russia presidential summit (which Trump wanted.)

    McMaster reportedly tried to stop Trump from congratulating Putin on his big victory in the Russian election on March 18 in a phone conversation where they discussed a possible summit meeting in a near future.

    How far all this is linked to Trump’s decision on March 22, finally, to sack McMaster as his National Security Advisor is yet another template. By the standards of military people, McMaster probably has the reputation of being an “intellectual” but the man proved to be an unvarnished Cold Warrior fit for a museum.

    From all accounts, Trump never trusted McMaster and the two had an acrimonious relationship. The one-star general who was overlooked for promotion by the Pentagon was Trump’s default choice following the abrupt departure of Michael Flynn.

    Michael Wolff narrates a hilarious episode in his book ‘Fire and Fury’ that during the job interview for the NSA post, McMaster tried to impress Trump when he showed up in military uniform with his silver star and launched into a wide-ranging lecture on global strategy. After, Trump reportedly remarked, “That guy bores the shit out of me.”

  • Harvard Teens Raise $1M For Crypto Fund Despite "Not Knowing A Lot"

    Teens are now setting up crypto hedge funds despite not having much of a clue as to what they’re doing. And they don’t seem to have trouble finding capital, either.

    If you are in the process of trying to gauge whether or not the world of crypto is achieving new highs in bubble status, then look no further than today’s perfunctory Bloomberg article on the crypto world.

    Our daily dose of crypto “must have” news comes in the form of an article, published Friday, that details several Harvard undergrad students who woke up one morning and decided they wanted to start a crypto hedge fund. Bloomberg reported,

    Bushra Hamid, the 19-year-old daughter of Syrian immigrants, has teamed up with three schoolmates to form Plympton Capital, a hedge fund for investing in digital currencies. Hamid says they aim to launch in six to eight weeks, starting with $1 million. Plympton, named for a street in Cambridge, Massachusetts, has already raised $700,000 from friends and family.

    And to give you some indication as to exactly how ready people are to throw money at crypto right now, the article states that they were able to raise $700,000 million from family and friends despite the fact that they may have no clue as to what they are doing:

    “We don’t necessarily know a lot, but they have full trust in us,” Hamid said.

    Friends – rather, investors – in the fund seem to be a little light on the “due diligence” angle, investing because founder Hamid had one run of success with cryptos:

    The quartet began meeting to discuss cryptocurrencies last year, when they each invested in coins independently. Hamid said that last fall she started the Harvard Undergraduate Blockchain Group, in which more than 300 students have shown an interest. Hamid won’t say how much she made on crypto, but a friend was impressed enough with the returns to spur her to action.

    “He was instantly, instantly intrigued,” she said. “He said, ‘Start something and I’ll invest.’

    The article continues:

    While many tech-savvy individual investors have long dabbled in cryptocurrencies, funds became interested in the last few years. About 226 have opened so far, most of them within the last year, managing as much as $5 billion in capital, according to Autonomous Research LLP.

    Bitcoin, the bellwether for the entire market, has retreated from last year’s heights, sending the crypto fund returns down 48 percent in the first quarter, according to the Eurekahedge Crypto-Currency Hedge Fund Index.

    The article states that they are banking on people their age – and as well as strategies like “technical analysis” to find the right investments:

    The Plympton group is banking on the youth movement. A recent online survey of about 2,000 adults conducted by Harris Poll for Blockchain Capital showed that 4 percent of millennials — people 18 to 34 years old — have owned Bitcoin, twice the rate of the general population. And 16 percent of millennials said they plan to buy Bitcoin in the next five years.

    “Some people might see our age, and see this is a new growing space that’s largely driven by the millennials,” Junaid Zubair, another Plympton founder, said. “That allows for a high sense of liability but also passion and interest. There we might have an advantage.”

    Plympton’s plan is to deploy technical analysis, arbitrage opportunities, portfolio optimization, and machine learning to find the right investments, Zubair said. He declined to provide more specifics.

    Good luck with that. The formation of this fund comes at the height of the crypto adoption boom and at a time where countries are the furthest along with they’ve ever been in trying to regulate cryptos and initial coin offerings.

    These teenagers have anointed themselves as experts due to one of them simply buying and holding cryptos in ostensibly benefiting from one ride up. However, now that crypto adoption has reached what seems like someone of a slow down, it’s going to take more than just being lucky or buying and holding to make consistent returns in the crypto space.

    We wrote yesterday about the only types of funds making money in crypto right now: market makers, volatility experts and those with net neutral exposure. Bloomberg reported on Thursday:

    Funds specializing in virtual currency market making and arbitrage strategies delivered first-quarter gains even as their mostly bullish peers lost 40 percent on average. That’s a big reversal from last year, when digital assets soared and market-making funds lagged far behind their long-biased counterparts.

    Pivot Digital Trading-2, managed by Hong Kong-based Amber AI Group, generated some of the biggest gains among cryptocurrency funds that avoid directional bets. It rose 4.3 percent in March to bring its first-quarter return to 30 percent, according to the firm. Market Neutral Liquidity SP-Institutional, domiciled in the Cayman Islands, earned 5.6 percent in the first quarter, said Cedric Jeanson of BitSpread Group, investment adviser to the portfolio.

    The man behind the curtain continues to get his take. The increased volume that comes with crypto’s plunge may not be great for traditional “buy-and-hold“ crypto funds or retail investors who only have the means to hold long, but that did not stop market makers, net neutral funds and volatility bettors from cashing in. The article continued: 

    The results suggest some managers are finding ways to profit from wild swings in cryptocurrencies without having to predict whether they will rise or fall. Such tactics may appeal to investors who want exposure to cryptocurrencies without their extreme volatility.

    Here’s a full list of funds that weathered the storm and the methods they used, courtesy of Bloomberg:

    We’re not sure how fund managers who don’t necessarily “know a lot” will be able to engage in these types of strategies, especially if their experience is likely just buying and holding in a Coinbase account. 

    Whether or not these Harvard students understand that the only people making money in cryptos right now are those with net neutral exposure where those making a market remains to be seen. But, the fact that there are four partners here, combined with the timing with which they decided to start this fund, has us believing this might be not only the first, but also the last time, we hear about them. 

  • Crimes Of A Monster: Your Tax Dollars At Work

    Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    Let us not mince words.

    We are living in an age of war profiteers.

    We are living in an age of scoundrels, liars, brutes and thugs. Many of them work for the U.S. government.

    We are living in an age of monsters.

    Ask Donald Trump. He knows all about monsters. 

    Any government that leaves “mothers and fathers, infants and children, thrashing in pain and gasping for air” is evil and despicable, said President Trump, justifying his blatantly unconstitutional decision(in the absence of congressional approval or a declaration of war) to launch airstrikes against Syria based on dubious allegationsthat it had carried out chemical weapons attacks on its own people. “They are crimes of a monster.”

    If the Syrian government is a monster for killing innocent civilians, including women and children, the U.S. government must be a monster, too.

    In Afghanistan, ten civilians were killed—including three children, one an infant in his mother’s arms—when U.S. warplanes targeted a truck in broad daylight on an open road with women and children riding in the exposed truck bed.

    In Syria, at least 80 civilians, including 30 children, were killed when U.S.-led air strikes bombed a school and a packed marketplace.

    Then there was a Doctors without Borders hospital in Kunduz that had 12 of its medical staff and 10 of its patients, including three children, killed when a U.S. AC-130 gunship fired on it repeatedly. Some of the patients were burned alivein their hospital beds.

    Yes, on this point, President Trump is exactly right: these are, indeed, the crimes of a monster.

    Unfortunately, this monster—this hundred-headed gorgon that is the U.S. government and its long line of political puppets (Donald Trump and before him Obama, Bush, Clinton, etc.), who dance to the tune of the military industrial complex—is being funded by you and me.

    It is our tax dollars at work here, after all.

    Unfortunately, we have no real say in how the government runs, or how our taxpayer funds are used.

    We have no real say, but we’re being forced to pay through the nose, anyhow, for endless wars that do more to fund the military industrial complex than protect us, pork barrel projects that produce little to nothing, and a police state that serves only to imprison us within its walls.

    Consider: we get taxed on how much we earn, taxed on what we eat, taxed on what we buy, taxed on where we go, taxed on what we drive, and taxed on how much is left of our assets when we die. 

    Indeed, if there is an absolute maxim by which the federal government seems to operate, it is that the American taxpayer always gets ripped off. 

    This is true whether you’re talking about taxpayers being forced to fund high-priced weaponrythat will be used against us, endless warsthat do little for our safety or our freedoms, or bloated government agencies such as the National Security Agencywith its secret budgets, covert agendas and clandestine activities. Rubbing salt in the wound, even monetary awards in lawsuits against government officials who are found guilty of wrongdoing are paid by the taxpayer.

    Not only are American taxpayers forced to “spend more on state, municipal, and federal taxes than the annual financial burdens of food, clothing, and housing combined,” but we’re also being played as easy marks by hustlers bearing the imprimatur of the government. 

    With every new tax, fine, fee and law adopted by our so-called representatives, the yoke around the neck of the average American seems to tighten just a little bit more. 

    Everywhere you go, everything you do, and every which way you look, we’re getting swindled, cheated, conned, robbed, raided, pickpocketed, mugged, deceived, defrauded, double-crossed and fleeced by governmental and corporate shareholders of the American police state out to make a profit at taxpayer expense.

    Yet as Ron Paul observed, “The Founding Fathers never intended a nation where citizens would pay nearly half of everything they earn to the government.”

    We are now ruled by a government consumed with squeezing every last penny out of the population and seemingly unconcerned if essential freedoms are trampled in the process. 

    If you have no choice, no voice, and no real options when it comes to the government’s claims on your property and your money, you’re not free.

    You’re not free if the government can seize your home and your car (which you’ve bought and paid for) over nonpayment of taxes. 

    You’re not free if government agents can freeze and seize your bank accounts and other valuables if they merely “suspect” wrongdoing. 

    And you’re certainly not free if the IRS gets the first cut of your salary to pay for government programs over which you have no say. 

    Somewhere over the course of the past 240-plus years, democracy has given way to kleptocracy  (a government ruled by thieves), and representative government has been rejected in favor of a kakistocracy  (a government run by the most unprincipled citizens that panders to the worst vices in our nature: greed, violence, hatred, prejudice and war) ruled by career politicians, corporations and thieves—individuals and entities with little regard for the rights of American citizens.

    As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, the American kleptocracy continues to suck the American people down a rabbit hole into a parallel universe in which the Constitution is meaningless, the government is all-powerful, and the citizenry is powerless to defend itself against government agents who steal, spy, lie, plunder, kill, abuse and generally inflict mayhem and sow madness on everyone and everything in their sphere.

    But what if we didn’t just pull out our pocketbooks and pony up to the federal government’s outrageous demands for more money? 

    What if we didn’t just dutifully line up to drop our hard-earned dollars into the collection bucket, no questions asked about how it will be spent? 

    What if, instead of quietly sending in our checks, hoping vainly for some meager return, we did a little calculating of our own and started deducting from our taxes those programs that we refuse to support?

    If we don’t have the right to decide what happens to our hard-earned cash, then we don’t have very many rights at all. 

    If the government can just take from you what they want, when they want, and then use it however they want, you can’t claim to be anything more than a serf in a land they think of as theirs. 

  • Visualizing The Multi-Billion Dollar Industry That Makes Its Living From Your Data

    In the ocean ecosystem, plankton is the raw material that fuels an entire food chain. These tiny organisms on their own aren’t that remarkable, but en masse, they have a huge impact on the world.

    Here on dry land, Visual Capitalist’s Nick Routley notes that the massive volume of content and meta data we produce fuels a marketing research industry that is worth nearly $50 billion.

    Every instant message, page click, and step you take now produces a data point that can be used to build a detailed profile of who you are.

    Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

    EVERY BREATH YOU TAKE, EVERY MOVE YOU MAKE

    The coarse-grained demographics and contact information of yesteryear seems quaint compared to today’s sophisticated data collection battleground. In the past, marketers would make judgement calls on your likely income and family structure based on where you lived, and you’d receive “targeted” mail and calls from telemarketers. Loyalty programs and the emergence of web analytics pushed things a little further.

    Today, the steady march of technological advancement has created a vast data collection empire that measures every aspect of your digital life and, increasingly, your offline life as well. Facebook alone uses nearly one hundred data points to target ads to you – everything from your marital status to whether you’ve been on vacation lately or not. Telecoms have access to extremely detailed information on your location. Apple has biometric data.

    Also watching your every move are web trackers. “Cookie-syncing” is one of the sneaky ways advertisers can follow you around the internet. Basically, cookie-syncing allows third parties to share browsing information at such a large scale that even the NSA “piggybacks” off them for surveillance purposes.

    The recent sales growth of smart speakers will only increase the breadth of data companies collect and analyze. Amazon and Google have both filed patents for technology that would essentially allow them to mine audio recordings for keywords. Advertisers could potentially target you with diapers before your family and friends even know you’re expecting a baby.

    FOLLOWING THE ONES AND ZEROS

    While web trackers and companies like Apple and Google are collecting a lot of personal and behavioral data, it’s the whales of the data ecosystem – data brokers – who are creating increasingly detailed profiles on almost everyone.

    Data brokers trade on the privacy of consumers and operate in the shadows.

    – Senator Al Franken (D-Minn)

    The goal of data brokers, such as Experian or Acxiom, is to siphon up as much personal data as possible and apply it to profiles. This data comes from a wide variety of sources. Your purchases, financial history, internet activity, and even psychographic attributes are mixed with information from public records to create a robust dossier. Digital profiles are then sorted into one of thousands of categories to help optimize advertising efforts.

    FEAR THE SHADOW PROFILE?

    According to Pew Research, 91% of Americans “agree” or “strongly agree” that people have lost control over how personal information is collected and used.

    Though optimizing clickthroughs is a big business, companies are increasingly moving beyond advertising to extract value from their growing data pipeline. Amalgamated data is increasingly being viewed as a clever way to assess risk in the decision-making process (e.g. hiring, insurance, loan or housing applications), and the stakes for consumers are going up in the process.

    For example, a man may feel comfortable sharing their HIV status on Grindr (for practical reasons), but may not want that information going to a third party. (Unfortunately, that really happened.)

    In 2015, Facebook filed a patent for a service that would help insurance companies vet people based on the credit ratings of their social network.

    THE MORE YOU KNOW

    Below the surface of our screens, our digital profiles continue to take shape.

    Measures like adjusting website privacy controls and clearing cookies are a good start, but that’s only a fraction of the data companies are collecting. Not only do data brokers make it hard to officially opt out, their partnerships with corporations and advanced data collection methods cast such a wide net, that it’s almost impossible to exclude individual people.

    Data brokers have operated with very little scrutiny or oversight, but that may be changing. Under intense public and governmental pressure, Facebook recently cut ties with data brokers. For a company that has bullishly pursued monetization of user data at every turn, the move is a sign that the public sentiment is changing.

  • The Road To 2025 (Part 3) – USD-Dominated Financial System Will Fall Apart

    Authored by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    It’s our currency, but it’s your problem.

    – U.S. Treasury Secretary John Connelly to European Finance Ministers, 1971

    Today’s post will cover a topic that consumed my thoughts for many years, but one I haven’t discussed much lately. Namely, the terminal nature of a global financial system being propped up artificially by central bank shenanigans.

    First, it’s crucial to understand that at the very core of our global economy is a financial system dominated by the U.S. dollar. The USD is a fiat currency directly backed by nothing, the supply of which can be arbitrarily altered and manipulated by a group of unelected bureaucrats in charge of the Federal Reserve. This money system represents the most powerful tool of centralized power on planet earth.

    The USD is unique in that it grants the U.S. the “exorbitant privilege”of having a national currency which at the same time serves as the global reserve currency. This was solidified toward the end of World War 2 with the Bretton Woods agreement, and was accepted because the U.S. agreed to offer sovereign nations holding dollars a right to exchange these dollars for gold at a fixed price. This fell apart in 1971, but was shortly replaced with an unofficial “petrodollar” system, which allowed the USD to remain the world reserve currency despite no longer being redeemable in gold.

    Before moving on, I want to share a few excerpts from an article I read yesterday titled, The De-Dollarization in China:

    Petrodollars emerged when Henry Kissinger dealt with King Fahd of Saudi Arabia, after “Black September” in Jordan.

    The agreement was simple. Saudi Arabia had to accept only dollars as payments for the oil it sold, but was forced to invest that huge amount of US currency only in the US financial channels while, in return, the United States placed Saudi Arabia and the other OPEC neighbouring countries under its own military protection.

    Hence the turning of the dollar into a world currency, considering the importance and extent of the oil market. Not to mention that this large amount of dollars circulating in the world definitely marginalized gold and later convinced the FED that the demand for dollars in the world washuge and unstoppable.

    An unlimited amount of liquidity that kept various US industrial sectors alive but, above all, guaranteed huge financial markets such as the derivatives – markets based on the structural surplus of US liquidity.

    Pricing key commodities such as oil, which everyone in the world needs, in USD creates a massive structural support for the dollar versus other government fiat currencies. If other nations constantly have to convert to USD before purchasing commodities, there’s a constant underlying global demand to buy USD on a daily basis. No other country has this sort of structural support for its currency, and it allows the U.S. to be far more fiscally irresponsible than other countries without suffering devastating currency devaluations on the global market.

    Despite the tremendous advantage such a system offers the U.S. on the world stage, there haven’t been any rival countries that could realistically challenge it given American economic dominance. This is no longer the case.

    As also noted in the article highlighted earlier:

    Still today, the US GDP accounts for 22% of world’s GDP, while 80% of international payments are made in dollars.

    Hence the United States receives goods from abroad always at comparatively very low prices, while the massive demand for dollars from the rest of the world allows to refinance the US public debt at very low costs.

    This is the economic and political core of the issue…

    Therefore the United States is about to be ousted as world’s currency due to its continuous series of wars and military failures (former President Cossiga always told me: “The United States is always on the warpath and up in arms, but then it is not able to get out of it”) and, like everyone else, it shall pay for its public debt, which is huge and will be ever more its problem, not ours.

    This is absolutely key.

    There’s now a huge mismatch between the use of USD in the global financial system and the U.S. share of the world economy. China and Russia are acutely aware of this and have been taking major steps to transition to a more multi-polar currency world. There can be no multi-polar geopolitical world without a multi-polar currency world, which is why they’re working toward dethroning the USD. I believe they will succeed.

    Specifically, I think by 2025 the world will have a completely different global financial system from the one chaotically birthed in the 1970s. The USD will lose its total dominance on the world stage, resulting in major implications geopolitically as well as at home. Though plenty of people see this coming, everybody has their own opinion on what comes next. While it can be fun to engage in speculation, nobody really knows what the world financial system will look like in ten or twenty years. Plenty of bureaucrats have their well-oiled plans, and plenty of bloggers are convinced they know, but I promise you, nobody really knows.

    Cryptocurrencies have expanded the possibilities greatly. Thanks to Bitcoin, we now have a decentralized, voluntary, open source, free-market global currency. This is one of the most extraordinary creations in human history, and opens up possibilities for our species that never existed before. Sure, nation-states won’t just roll over and give up their money creation addiction any time soon, but the point is we finally have other options and can choose to opt out while still conducting global transactions. In summary, the next few years will be characterized by currency wars, not just between rival nation-states, but also between paranoid and authoritarian nation-states and new free market currencies.

    Readers know what I want to see. I will never get excited about transitioning away from the USD just to be under the thumb of another oppressive nation-state currency from Russia or China.

    If we want to evolve, explore the limits of human potential and usher in a world of monetary freedom, it’s important to support the key principles represented by Bitcoin. Don’t say “I like the idea, but it’ll be shut-down.” That’s giving up the battle without a fight. I genuinely think we can create a new paradigm for humankind. We have the tools, we just need the will.

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    Part 1: The Road to 2025 – Prepare for a Multi-Polar World

    Part 2: The Road to 2025 (Part 2) – Russia and China Have Had Enough

    *  *  *

    If you liked this article and enjoy my work, consider becoming a monthly Patron, or visit our Support Page to show your appreciation for independent content creators.

  • Turkey Will Repatriate All Gold From The US In Attempt To Ditch The Dollar

    After Venezuela, Germany, Austria and the Netherlands prudently repatriated a substantial portion (if not all) of their physical gold held at the NY Fed or other western central banks in recent years, this morning Turkey also announced that it has decided to repatriate all its gold stored in the US Federal Reserve and deliver it to the Istanbul Stock Exchange, according to reports in Turkey’s Yeni Safak. It won’t be the first time Turkey has asked the NY Fed to ship the country’s gold back: in recent years, Turkey repatriated 220 tons of gold from abroad, of which 28.7 tons was brought back from the US last year.

    According to the latest IMF data, Turkey’s gold reserves are estimated at 591 tons, worth just over $23 billion. This makes Ankara the 11th largest gold holder, behind the Netherlands and ahead of India.

    Turkey’s gold repatriation come at a sensitive time for Turkey’s currency, the lira, which has been pounded, and plunged to all time lows against both the dollar and the euro despite runaway, double-digit inflation in Turkey, as the central bank is seemingly afraid of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and refuses to raise rates.

    Meanwhile, Erdogan has taken a tough stance against the US currency, criticized dollar loans and saying that international loans should be given in gold instead.

    “Why do we make all loans in dollars? Let’s use another currency. I suggest that the loans should be made based on gold,” Erdoğan said during a speech at the Global Entrepreneurship Congress in Istanbul on April 16, according to Hurriyet.

    In what some saw an appeal for a gold standard by the Turkish president, Erdogan added that “with the dollar the world is always under exchange rate pressure. We should save states and nations from this exchange rate pressure. Gold has never been a tool of oppression throughout history.”

    Well, now that Turkey will soon have all of its gold on the ground, Erdogan will be able to launch a gold-backed currency if he so desires. Unfortunately, all signs point to the gold being repatriated only so it can be raided, pillaged and promptly deposited in offshore vaults by members of the ruling oligarchy.

    As noted above, Turkey has been one of several countries which have moved their gold from the world’s biggest, and most secure gold vault, that located 95 feet below sea level at 33 Liberty Street in Manhattan, also known as the New York Fed.

    The repatriation wave began in 2012, when Venezuela announced it was withdrawing all of its 160 tons of gold at the NY Fed, valued at around $9 billion. Germany’s Bundesbank then demanded 300 tons be returned, with the Fed saying it would take seven years to do so; a scrambling Germany was able to complete the process 3 years ahead of schedule. The Netherlands has also repatriated 122.5 tons of gold.

    As a result, according to the latest Fed data, the amount of physical gold stored at the NY Fed has dropped to the lowest on record, or 7.819 thousand tons, following a withdrawal scramble that started in 2014 and continued until the end of 2016. After a 15 month hiatus, withdrawals resumed in 2018, with 15.5 tons of gold repatriated in January and February.

    “The central banks started the repatriation already a few years ago, meaning before we had Brexit, Catalonia, Trump, AFD or the rising tensions between the Politburo in Brussels and the nations of Eastern Europe,” said Claudio Grass of Precious Metal Advisory in Switzerland.

    According to him, the world is becoming less centralized. “If we follow this trend, it should be obvious that the next step should be an even bigger break up into smaller units than the nation state. With such geopolitical fragmentation comes also the decentralization of power.”

  • US Sorghum "Armada" Turns Away From China After Tariffs

    China’s nearly 200% tariff on imports of US sorghum is already having a profound impact on the global grain trade. And in the latest evidence of how quickly the tariffs have been felt by US producers, Reuters is reporting that an “armada” of cargo ships carrying $216 million of sorghum from the US to China has changed course since Beijing imposed the tariff last week, as grain exporters are suddenly worried about taking a sizable loss on the loads. 

    Since the tariff was imposed, the five shipments, which were all destined for China when they were loaded at Texas Gulf Coast export terminals owned by grain merchants Cargill Inc and Archer Daniels Midland Co, are now liable for a hefty deposit to be paid based on the value of the goods. The payment would likely make the shipments unprofitable, according to Reuters.

    Sorghum

    Beijing announced on Tuesday that it would impose the 178.6% tariff following a brief investigation. That followed the imposition of tariffs as high as 25% on range of products produced in America. In the world of US agricultural products, China has also imposed sanctions on US soybeans – a decision that is expected to create major disruptions for US farmers.

    Cargill declined to tell Reuters where the ships that it loaded are heading now that they’ve been redirected away from China.

    The Panamanian-flagged ship called the N Bonanza, was churning its way northeast across the Indian Ocean earlier this week, carrying more than 67,000 tonnes of sorghum from ADM’s elevator in Corpus Christi, Texas, according to Reuters shipping data.

    Eleven hours after the anti-dumping deposits were announced, the ship stopped and then slowly tracked northwest.

    The RB Eden, a vessel carrying 70,223 tonnes of sorghum loaded at the same ADM terminal, was headed east-northeast through the Indian Ocean off the coast of South Africa. It turned around.

    Hours later, the Stamford Eagle – hauling sorghum from Cargill’s elevator in Houston – turned around off the western coast of Mexico.

    At least two other vessels have also suddenly changed course: the Ocean Belt and Xing Xi Hai, both loaded at Cargill’s terminal.

    It is unclear where the vessels are now heading.

    But US exporters aren’t the only ones feeling the pain from the tariffs: Suppliers of sorghum on the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic oceans are all hurting

    Sorghum is a niche animal feed and a tiny slice of the billions of dollars in exports at stake in the trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies, which threatens to disrupt the flow of everything from steel to electronics.

    As of now, the tariffs won’t have a significant impact on Archer Daniels or Cargill – two of the world’s largest grain merchants. But it is a warning that China won’t hesitate to effectiv

    “For their overall trade businesses, this is not that substantial. But it’s a warning. If China really does start slapping tariffs on everything, like soybeans and corn, things could get really ugly, really fast,” said Bill Densmore, senior director of corporate ratings at Fitch Ratings.

    But shipping companies may be forced to discount their cargoes to sell them.

    “They’re not in a strong bargaining position considering they’ve got shipments from across the ocean that they have to sell and get the boats cleared out,” said economist Daniel O’Brien of Kansas State University in the top U.S. sorghum-producing state.

    And falling sorghum prices in Texas have already rattled farmers.

    “This tit for tat has to stop, and talks to find reasonable and lasting solutions must begin, for the good of U.S. agriculture and the customers we have spent decades working to win as loyal buyers,” said Tom Sleight, president and CEO of the US Grains Council.

    But the real reason US producers should worry about an escalating trade war can be found in the backlash to the US’s decision to ban sales of semiconductors to China’s ZTE, a Chinese smartphone manufacturer.

    Across China, citizens rallied in support of ZTE – and condemned the US measures as an attack on China. Restaurants offered ZTE employees free meals. They even “thanked” the US for helping force China to become more self-reliant.

    Meanwhile in the US, Trump’s aggressive rhetoric has been met with unease and criticism from the business community.

    Given that, it’s not difficult to imagine which side will be able to hold out longer while striking back with increasingly dramatic penalties.

  • Hayward Bay Fault Line More Dangerous Than San Andreas: It's A "Ticking Time Bomb"

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    Scientists are now saying that the “Big One” in California may not be caused by the San Andreas fault line, but by the Hayward Bay fault line. It is now thought to be the “ticking time bomb” fault line and more dangerous than the San Andreas.

    The scariest scenario for the next major earthquake may not be from the San Andreas Fault (though that one still threatens), but from the Hayward Fault that runs along the east side of the San Francisco Bay. In fact, many say that the next earthquake on the Hayward Bay fault line would be “disastrous.” According to KTUV, a magnitude 7.0 earthquake along the Hayward Fault could kill as many as 800 people and injure 18,000, according to results of a new research released Wednesday.

    The U.S. Geological Survey, citing findings from a simulated tremor with an epicenter in Oakland, said the disaster would cause 400 fires that could destroy 50,000 homes. Nearly half a million people would be displaced, authorities said.

    The simulated quake in the video above, known as the “HayWired scenario,” was modeled to occur at 4:18 p.m. on April 18 (yesterday). It replicates a rupture along the fault’s entire 52-mile length, from San Pablo Bay in the north to just east of San Jose in the south. According to this model, the violent shaking from the earthquake could cause the two sides of the fault to split six feet apart in some places. Some of the aftershocks would continue for several months as well. Cities in the East Bay would be hit hard, including Berkeley, Oakland, San Leandro, and Hayward.

    If a 7.0 magnitude quake occurred like the one simulated, researchers say that the East Bay residents could be without water from anywhere between six weeks to six months. Electricity could be out for up to four weeks in some locations.

    According to Business Insider, the statistical chances of this type of an earthquake occurring are not very comforting either. There’s about a 76% chance that the San Francisco Bay Area could experience a 7.2 magnitude earthquake within the next 30 years, according to some recent reports.

    The San Andreas Fault under San Francisco rumbled apart about 112 years ago, causing the devastating 1906 earthquake that swallowed city blocks, broke water mains, and triggered massive fires that burned for days.  However, the threat of another major quake for the Bay Area is “real and could happen at any time,” according to researchers for the US Geological Survey.

    The Hayward Fault is a “tectonic time bomb, due any time for another magnitude 6.8 to 7.0 earthquake,” according to a 2008 USGS report. Since then, research has indicated that the likelihood of a Hayward quake is greater and more threatening to the 7 million Bay Area residents than a San Andreas quake would be.

    “It’s just waiting to go off,” USGS earthquake geologist emeritus David Schwartz warned when speaking to the Los Angeles Times.

  • Trump To "Counter" DNC Lawsuit; Seeks Servers, Clinton Emails And "Pakistani Mystery Man"

    President Trump is eager to go head-to-head with the DNC which filed a multimillion-dollar lawsuit on Friday against several parties, including the Russian government, the Trump campaign and the WikiLeaks organization – alleging a “far-reaching conspiracy to disrupt the 2016 campaign and tilt the election to Donald Trump.” 

    Hours after the Washington Post broke the news of the lawsuit, Trump tweeted “Just heard the Campaign was sued by the Obstructionist Democrats. This can be good news in that we will now counter for the DNC server that they refused to give to the FBI,” referring to the DNC email breach. Trump also mentioned “the Debbie Wasserman Schultz Servers and Documents held by the Pakistani mystery man and Clinton Emails.”

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    The “Pakistani mystery man” is a clear reference to former DNC CHair Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s longtime IT employee and personal friend, Imran Awan – whose father, claims a Daily Caller source, transferred a USB drive to the former head of a Pakistani intelligence agency – Rehman Malik. Malik denies the charge. 

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    Of note, the DNC would not allow the FBI to inspect their servers which were supposedly hacked by the Russians – instead relying on private security firm Crowdstrike. 

    Meanwhile, the “Wasserman Schultz Servers” Trump mentions is likely in reference to the stolen House Democratic Caucus server – which Imran Awan had been funneling information onto when it disappeared shortly after the House Inspector General concluded that the server may have been “used for nefarious purposes.” 

    The server may have been “used for nefarious purposes and elevated the risk that individuals could be reading and/or removing information,” an IG presentation said. The Awans logged into it 27 times a day, far more than any other computer they administered.

    Imran’s most forceful advocate and longtime employer is Florida Democratic Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who led the DNC until she resigned following a hack that exposed committee emails. Wikileaks published those emails, and they show that DNC staff summoned Imran when they needed her password. –DCNF

    Imran Awan, his wife Hina Alvi and several other associates ran IT operations for at least 60 Congressional Democrats over the past decade, along with the House Democratic Caucus – giving them access to emails and computer data from around 800 lawmakers and staffers – including the highly classified materials reviewed by the House Intelligence Committee

    Napolitano: He was arrested for some financial crime – that’s the tip of the iceberg. The real allegation against him is that he had access to the emails of every member of congress and he sold what he found in there. What did he sell, and to whom did he sell it? That’s what the FBI wants to know. This may be a very, very serious national security situation.

    Last July, Lt. Col. Tony Shaffer claimed to Laura Ingraham that the Awan IT staffers were sending sensitive information with the Muslim Brotherhood

    The Awans notably worked for rep Andre Carson (D-IN) – the first Muslim on the House Intel Committee, who has several ties to the Muslim Brotherhood

    Among those with whom Rep. Carson has been involved as a guest speaker, panelist, fundraiser, recipient of funds, etc., are: the Council on American Islamic Relations (CAIR) and a number of its chapters across the country; the Islamic Society of North America (ISNA); the Islamic Circle of North America (ICNA); the Muslim American Society (MAS); and the Brotherhood’s new proto-political party, the U.S. Council of Muslim Organizations (USCMO). –Center for Security Policy

    The DNC lawsuit, filed on Friday, asserts that the Russian hacking campaign – combined with Trump associates’ contacts with Russia and the campaign’s public cheerleading of the hacks – amounted to an illegal conspiracy to interfere in the election that caused serious damage to the Democratic Party.

    DNC Chairman Tom Perez said in a statement…

    “During the 2016 presidential campaign, Russia launched an all-out assault on our democracy, and it found a willing and active partner in Donald Trump’s campaign,”

    “This constituted an act of unprecedented treachery: the campaign of a nominee for President of the United States in league with a hostile foreign power to bolster its own chance to win the presidency,”

    Unfortunately for the DNC, which has now exposed itself to an aggressive discovery phase, their case holds no water according to Law And Crime;

    Here’s the problem:  several pages of quotes and factual allegations in the beginning of the document are wholly uncited, at least in that section of the document.

    Another section of the document, “general allegations,” does cite information through footnotes — some 107 of them. However, the records cited are almost exclusively news reports from sources such as the New Republic, the New York Times, ABC, CNN, Politico, the Washington Post, Fox News, Business Insider, Slate, and other media outlets. Ferretting out exactly what was reported by those outlets is not difficult.

    The DNC’s lawsuit shoves what ultimately is fourth-hand information to a federal judge to be taken as fact in support of this conclusion:

    Through these communications, the Trump Campaign, Trump’s closest advisors, and Russian agents formed an agreement to promote Donald Trump’s candidacy through illegal means.

     Has the DNC just created all the rope it needs to hang itself?

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Today’s News 20th April 2018

  • These Are The Men & Women Most-Admired By Brits In 2018

    In 2002, David Attenborough was named among the 100 Greatest Britons by a BBC poll.

    And as Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes, the veteran broadcaster and naturalist is still the most admired man in the UK, according to a new YouGov survey. Widely considered a national treasure in Britain, Attenborough had an admiration score of 16.6 percent, ahead of Barack Obama’s 12.3 percent.

    Infographic: The men and women most admired by the UK in 2018  | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Queen Elizabeth II is the most admired woman in the UK with an admiration score of 19.6 percent. Michelle Obama came second with 10.3 percent while Judi Dench came third with 10.3 percent.

  • How The Guardian Fulfills George Orwell's Prediction Of 'Newspeak'

    Authored by Eric Zuesse via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    On Sunday April 15th, Britain’s Guardian bannered “OPCW inspectors set to investigate site of Douma chemical attack” and pretended that there was no question that a chemical attack in Douma Syria on April 7th had actually occurred, and the article then went further along that same propaganda-line, to accuse Syria’s Government of having perpetrated it. This ‘news’ story opened [and clarificatory comments from me will added in brackets]:

    UN chemical weapons investigators were set on Sunday to begin examining the scene of a chemical attack in the Syrian city of Douma, which had prompted the joint US, French and British strikes against military installations and chemical weapons facilities near the capital, Damascus.

    The arrival of the delegation from the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) came as the Syrian military announced that it had “purified” [no source provided, but this — from 7 March 2018  is the only source that existed prior to the April 14th missiles-invasion of Syria, and its meaning is very differentthe region of eastern Ghouta, of which Douma is a part, after a two-month campaign that killed nearly 2,000 civilians [no source provided as regards either the number, or that all of them were ‘civilians’ and that none of them were jihadists or “terrorists”], following years of siege.

    The propaganda-article continued directly: 

    “Units of our brave armed forces, and auxiliary and allied forces, completed the purification of eastern Ghouta, including all its towns and villages, of armed terrorist organisations,” the general command statement said.

    No source was provided for that, but this sentence is a sly mind-manipulation, because here is what the Syrian Government’s General Command had actually said“Statement of the Army General Command declaring Eastern Ghouta clear of terrorism” as headlined by the Syrian Government itself.

    In other words: the Guardian’s ‘journalist’ had substituted the word “clear” by the word “purify” and did this after having already asserted but not documented, that the Government had just completed “a two-month campaign that killed nearly 2,000 civilians.”

    When the Syrian Government announces that an area has been “cleared of terrorists (or of terrorism),” the US-allied propagandist uses the word “purify,” such as “purified the region of eastern Ghouta” or “the purification of eastern Ghouta, including all its towns and villages, of armed terrorist organisations.”

    But by the time that the reader gets there to “purification … of armed terrorist organisations,” the reader has already been indoctrinated to believe that Syria’s Government is trying to “purify” land, or perpetrate some type of ethnic-cleansing

    Later, the article asserts that,

    “The OPCW mission will arrive in Douma eight days after the chemical attack, and days after the area fell to the control of Russian military and Syrian government forces. That delay, along with the possibility of the tampering of evidence by the forces accused of perpetrating the attack, raises doubts about what the OPCW’s inspectors might be able to discover.”

    However, a fierce debate is being waged over whether this was not any real “chemical attack” but instead a staged event by the jihadists in order to draw Trump back into invading Syria. In other words: any journalistic reference yet, at this time, to the event as “the chemical attack” instead of as “the alleged chemical attack” is garbage, just as, prior to the guilty-verdict in a murder trial, no journalistic reference may legitimately be made to the defendant as “the murderer,” instead of as “the defendant.” That is lynch-mob ‘journalism’, which Joseph Goebbels championed.

    The Joseph-Goebbels-following ‘journalist’ has thus opened by implying that the Russia-allied Syrian Government is trying to crush a democratic revolution, instead of the truth, that the US-allied Governments are trying to overthrow and replace the Russia-allied Syrian Government.

    It’s a big difference, between the lie, and the truth.

    Another story in the April 15th Guardian was “Pressure grows on Russia to stop protecting Assad as US, UK and France press for inquiry into chemical weapons stockpiles” and this one pretended that the issue is for “Russia to stop protecting Assad,” who is the democratically elected and popular President of Syria, and not to stop the invasion of Syria since 2011 by US and Saudi backed foreign jihadists to overthrow him.

    Furthermore, as regards “press for inquiry into chemical weapons stockpiles,” the real and urgent issue right now is to allow the Organization for the Prevention of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) into Douma to hold an independent and authoritative investigation into the evidence there. Russia pressed for it at the U.N. Security Council and the US and its allies blocked it there. But the OPCW went anyway — even after the US-allied invasion on April 14th — and this courageous resistance by them against the US dictatorship can only be considered heroic.

    That type of ‘news’-reporting is virtually universal in The West, among the US and its allied governments, which refer to themselves as ‘democracies’ and refer to any Government that they wish to overthrow and replace by their own selected dictator, as ‘dictatorships’, such as these regimes had referred to Iraq in 2003, Libya in 2011, Syria forever, and Ukraine in 2014.

  • Over 95% Of World's Population Breathes Dangerously-Polluted Air, New Report

    Most of the world’s population resides in regions where air quality contains life-threatening pollutants. An estimated 95 percent of people are breathing unhealthy air where ambient (outdoor) fine particulate matter concentrations (soot particles) surpass the World Health Organization’s Air Quality Guideline of 10 µg/m3, a new report has discovered.

    Almost 60 percent of the world’s population breathe unsafe air in areas where fine particulate matter exceeds a dangerous level of 35 µg/m3.

    The comprehensive study noticed most of the world’s hazardous air and the heaviest societal burdens are hitting impoverished communities the hardest.

    An Indian girls holds a banner during a protest against air pollution in New Delhi, India, Sunday, Nov. 6, 2016.  (AP Photo/Manish Swarup)

    According to the State of Global Air project, a joint venture between the Health Effects Institute, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), and the University of British Columbia, fine particle air pollution is the most significant enviormental hazard worldwide. It is “responsible for a substantially larger number of attributable deaths than other more well-known behavioral risk factors such as alcohol use, physical inactivity, or high sodium intake,” said the report. Medium to long-term exposure to fine particle air pollution — contributed to an estimated 6.1 million deaths worldwide in 2016.

    The report says air pollution can significantly affect people’s health, including “making it difficult to breathe for those with asthma or other respiratory diseases, sending the young and old to hospital or causing them to miss school or work, and contributing to early death from heart and lung disease.”

    In the chart below, the report specifies that air pollution is the fourth-highest leading cause of death on a global scale, right after high blood pressure, smoking, obesity, and diet.

    Figure 1. Global ranking of risk factors by total number of deaths from all causes for all ages and both sexes in 2016.

    The report specifies 95 percent of the world’s population lives in regions exceeding WHO Air Quality Guidelines. Base on the data below, the highest concentrations of air pollution are in regions of Africa, Middle East, India, and much of Asia.

    “The highest concentrations of population-weighted annual average PM2.5 (see “Defining Ambient Air Pollution” textbox) in 2016 were in countries in North Africa (e.g., Niger at 204 µg/m3 and Egypt at 126 µg/m3 ), West Africa (e.g., Cameroon at 140 µg/m3 and Nigeria at 122 µg/m3 ), and in the Middle East (e.g., Saudi Arabia at 188 µg/ m3 and Qatar at 148 µg/m3 ). The high outdoor concentrations in these regions were due mainly to windblown mineral dust. However, in some of these countries (Niger, Nigeria, and Cameroon), high proportions of the population burn solid fuels in the home and may also engage in open burning of agricultural lands or forests, both of which can also contribute substantially to outdoor air pollution.

    The next-highest concentrations appeared in South Asia, where combustion emissions from multiple sources, including household solid fuel use, coal-fired power plants, agricultural and other open burning, and industrial and transportation-related sources, are the main contributors. The population-weighted annual average PM2.5 concentrations were 101 µg/m3 in Bangladesh, 78 µg/m3 in Nepal, and 76 µg/m3 in both India and Pakistan. The population-weighted annual average concentration in China was 56 µg/m3 . Estimates for population-weighted annual average PM2.5 concentrations were lowest (≤ 8 µg/m3 ) in Australia, Brunei, Canada, Estonia, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, New Zealand, Sweden, and several Pacific island nations.”

    Figure 2. Comparison of 2016 annual average PM2.5 concentrations to the WHO Air Quality Guideline.

    Figure 3. Trends in population-weighted annual average PM2.5 concentrations in the 10 most populous countries plus the European Union, 2010–2016

    “Air pollution takes a huge personal toll worldwide, making it difficult to breathe for those with respiratory disease, sending the young and old to hospital, missing school and work, and contributing to early death,” Bob O’Keefe, vice president of HEI, said in a statement.

    “The trends we report show real progress in some parts of the world — but serious challenges remain to eliminate this avoidable affliction,” he added.

    According to the report, China and India were both responsible for more than 50 percent of global deaths linked to air pollution.

    It also found that China’s air pollution has stabilized; meanwhile, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India have experienced dramatic increases in air pollution since 2010.

    The report then dives into household air pollution from burning “solid fuels for cooking and heating is the 8th leading global risk factor contributing to disease burden.” Over 2.45 billion people — one in three global citizens — were exposed to harmful indoor air pollution from burning solid fuels in 2016. Shockingly, it contributed to one in four pollution deaths in India and one in five in China.

    ” People living in homes using solid fuels can face PM2.5 levels 6 times higher than even the leaststringent WHO Interim Air Quality Target for PM2.5 and as much as 20 times higher than the full WHO Air Quality Guideline of 10 µg/m3 .”

    Figure 5. Proportion of population exposed to household air pollution from burning of solid fuels in 2016.

    Figure 6. Number of people and percentage of population exposed to household air pollution from solid fuel burning in countries with populations over 50 million and at least 10% solid fuel use in 2016.

    Figure 7. Trends in proportion of population exposed to household air pollution from burning of solid fuels for selected regions of the world.

    “The gap between the most polluted air on the planet and the least polluted was striking. While developed countries have made moves to clean up, many developing countries have fallen further behind while seeking economic growth,” O’Keefe said.

    But he added: “There are reasons for optimism, though there is a long way to go. China seems to be now moving pretty aggressively, for instance in cutting coal and on stronger controls. India has really begun to step up on indoor air pollution, for instance through the provision of LPG [liquefied petroleum gas] as a cooking fuel, and through electrification.”

    The report then glances over the burden of disease attributed to air population and found a wide range of health effects, including asthma, increased hospitalizations, illness, and reduced life expectancy from heart and lung disease. Some of those diseases include:

    • ischemic heart disease,

    • cerebrovascular disease (ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke),

    • lung cancer,

    •  chronic-obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and

    • lower-respiratory infections (LRIs).

    Figure 9. Numbers of deaths attributable to ambient PM2.5 in 2016.

    Figure 10. Percentage of global deaths by cause attributable to ambient particulate matter and to household air pollution

    Figure 11. Numbers of deaths attributable to household burning of solid fuels in 2016.

    “The combined burden from both ambient and household air pollution falls most heavily on low and middle-income countries where exposures to both are high. These countries face a double burden,” stated the report.

    Figure 13. Comparison of the percentages of deaths attributable to PM2.5, household, and total air pollution by sociodemographic (SDI) index.

    Figure 14. Comparison of the global patterns of age-standardized death rates for both sexes attributable to total air pollution.

    The State of Global Air report, points out the ugly side of globalization, as many U.S. corporations offshored their supply chains and the pollution that goes along with manufacturing to the Eastern Hemisphere. It is becoming increasingly obvious that the United States has been spared in terms of air pollution, but that might not last for long, because President Trump wants to rebuild overseas supply chains back into America’s heartland. Will the opportunity cost of restoring America’s greatness be at the health expense of America’s middle-class? It certainly will…

  • The Road To 2025 (Part 2) – Russia And China Have Had Enough

    Authored by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    Part 1 of this series focused on how the U.S. empire no longer provides any real benefit to the average American citizen. Rather, the spoils of overseas wars, the domestic surveillance state and an overall corrupt economy are being systematically funneled to a smaller and smaller group of generally unsavory characters. The public’s starting to recognize this reality, which is why we saw major populist movements emerge on both the traditional right and left of the political spectrum in 2016.

    As millions of Americans emerge from their long slumber, much of the world’s been aware of this reality for a long time. They don’t see the U.S. as a magnanimous humanitarian empire, that’s a fairytale more suited for children’s books and the mass media. In fact, it seems clear that the billions of humans who live in various sovereign nations around the world would certainly prefer to be in control of their own destinies as opposed to mere vassal states of the U.S., they simply haven’t possessed the military or economic power to stand up and chart their own course. But things are changing.

    The most significant geopolitical change of the 21st century is the emergence of China, and the reemergence of Russia, as globally significant military powers. This is the core driver behind the establishment’s panic about Russia. It has nothing to do with Putin’s authoritarianism or human rights abuses, that’s just marketing directed at a heretofore extremely gullible public.

    In reality, those determined to perpetuate a unipolar world run by the U.S. are appalled and concerned about the fact Russia was able to become involved in Syria and prevent another regime change operation. Russia very publicly, and very successfully, stood up and said “no” to U.S. imperial ambitions in Syria. This isn’t just historically significant, it’s seen as blasphemous and recalcitrant by the U.S. status quo.

    With that out of the way, let’s revisit a few things I wrote over the weekend in my first thoughts on the latest Syria strike:

    Russian leadership are not a bunch of fools, nor will they back down. After last night, they know for certain the U.S. empire is determined to castrate them globally at all costs in order to impede an inevitable emergence of a multi-polar world.

    I don’t think Russia or Iran will respond with a shock and awe attack any time soon, nor will this likely spiral out of control in the near-term. It’s more likely we’ll see this all play out over the course of the next 5 years or so.

    I also don’t expect this to go nuclear, but I think the chances the U.S. experiences an imperial collapse similar to that of the USSR (or like any historically unmanageable and corrupt empire) has become increasingly likely. My view at this point is the U.S. and its global power position will be so dramatically altered in the years ahead, it’ll be almost unrecognizable by 2025, as a result of both economic decline and major geopolitical mistakes. This will cause the public to justifiably lose faith in all leadership and institutions.

    The more I reflect on what’s going on, the more I’m convinced the U.S. is trying to goad Russia into a response with these provocations. I think the Russians know this, which is precisely why they’re responding with cool heads to a blatantly illegal and unconstitutional strike likely based on a fake narrative. In fact, we still don’t have any reliable or rock solid evidence of what happened. Naturally, this didn’t stop Donald Trump from bombing without consulting Congress, nor did it stop Theresa May from doing the same without consulting Parliament. Please tell me again about our illustrious Western democracies. I suppose that’s just another fairytale for public consumption.

    Moreover, Russia’s lack of a military response shouldn’t be seen as a sign of weakness, but as an intentional and well thought out strategy. The Russians seem to think the U.S. (and UK) are acting like desperate feral lunatics and the best thing they can do is sit back, play defense, and let the short-sighted fools running the American empire ruin themselves. The erratic and demonstrably thuggish and shady manner in which the U.S., UK and France behaved in this latest criminal act has not been lost upon the populations of the world, including considerable portions of the American and British populace who are disgusted at what these governments are doing in our names. Russia’s strategy is to look reasonable on the global stage compared to a U.S. which seems increasingly crazy and unhinged. It seems to be working.

    That being said, Russia by itself isn’t capable of successfully standing up to the U.S. empire in the long-run. This is where China comes into play. Chinese leadership have also had enough but are, like the Russians, holding back and acting like the reasonable adults in the room. We saw this most recently with the Chinese cooling down the trade wars. U.S. pundits cheered this as a sign of weakness, but I think the opposite. China’s playing the same game as Russia. Allow U.S. leadership to continue to look like insufferable bullies on the world stage until everyone gets completely sick of U.S. dominance.

    A reader who lives in Europe wrote the following comment on my last post, which seems like a fair representation of global public opinion at this point:

    The Soviet empire fell because the cost of the arms race depleted the rest of the society to such a degree that a collapse was inevitable. I believe the US are in a similar state now. The current wars are carried out by technology at distance, or by proxy warriors, and not by actual americans on ground. How long can the citizens carry that burden? At the same time the US is losing the moral support within the public among their allies, as I know first hand, by being from a european allied country. Although our domestic politic leadership and mainstream press are supporting the US, especially when they launch some rockets, opposition and disbelief is large and growing among normal people. The US has lost its posiotion as our leading star, not just among the leftist, but all over the spectrum. The insanity and lies are becoming so evident that it is impossible to deny it.

    The U.S. is rapidly losing support and confidence at the grassroots level, both at home and abroad. We see the lies and we see the disregard for the Constitution. The U.S. and its pet allies like the UK and France will all be increasingly seen as rogue states by much of the world if they keep this up.

    Finally, for those of you who doubt which side China is on in this global drama, let me point out the following excerpts from a recent editorial published in the state-sponsored Global Times earlier this week:

    The facts cannot be distorted. This military strike was not authorized by the UN, and the strikes targeted a legal government of a UN member state. The US and its European allies launched strikes to punish President Bashar al-Assad for a suspected chemical attack in Duma last weekend. However, it has not been confirmed if the chemical weapons attack happened or if it did, whether government forces or opposition forces launched it. International organizations have not carried out any authoritative investigation.

    The Syrian government has repeatedly stressed that there is no need for it to use chemical weapons to capture the opposition-controlled Duma city and the use of chemical weapons has provided an excuse for Western intervention. The Syrian government’s argument or Trump’s accusations against the “evil” Assad regime, which one is in line with basic logic? The answer is quite obvious.

    The US has a record of launching wars on deceptive grounds. The Bush government asserted the Saddam regime held chemical weapons before the US-British coalition troops invaded Iraq in 2003. However, the coalition forces didn’t find what they called weapons of mass destruction after overthrowing the Saddam regime. Both Washington and London admitted later that their intelligence was false.

    Washington’s attack on Syria where Russian troops are stationed constitute serious contempt for Russia’s military capabilities and political dignity. Trump, like scolding a pupil, called on Moscow, one of the world’s leading nuclear powers, to abandon its “dark path.” Disturbingly, Washington seems to have become addicted to mocking Russia in this way. Russia is capable of launching a destructive retaliatory attack on the West. Russia’s weak economy is plagued by Western sanctions and squeezing of its strategic space. That the West provokes Russia in such a manner is irresponsible for world peace.

    The situation is still fomenting. The Trump administration said it will sustain the strikes. But how long will the military action continue and whether Russia will fight back as it claimed previously remain uncertain. Western countries continue bullying Russia but are seemingly not afraid of its possible counterattack. Their arrogance breeds risk and danger.

    China and Russia will work together, often behind the scenes, to convince the rest of the world that the U.S. has become a rogue state, and will use this argument to build international support for a multi-polar world. The only thing that could slow this process down is if the U.S. stops acting like a rogue state, something that appears increasingly unlikely with Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State and John Bolton as National Security Advisor.

    Part 3 will focus on the weak link in U.S. imperial dominance, the USD.

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  • Russia And Iran Complete First Oil-For-Goods Transfer, Extend Agreement For A Year

    Nearly four years after Iran and Russia first agreed to an oil-for-goods swap agreement worth billions of dollars, RT is reporting that the first delivery of Iranian crude oil to Russia under the program has been completed, and the two sides are angling to extend the deal, possible for another five years.

    “The agreement is effective; it has been extended for the year, but in general, we think it should be extended for five years,” said Russian Energy Ministry Aleksandr Novak.

    As we reported more than three years ago, the $20 billion agreement was initially signed in April 2014 when Iran was facing Western sanctions over its nuclear program (they have since been lifted thanks to the Iran deal, but will likely soon be reimposed).

    Russia

    When the sanctions against Tehran were lifted in 2016, Novak said the deal was no longer necessary. However, Novak said in March 2017 that the plan was back on the table with Russia buying 100,000 barrels per day from Iran and selling the country $45 billion worth of goods. Another agreement was later signed in late May.

    Current Iranian oil supplies under the program amount to five million tons per year. The first delivery was made in November 2017 and totaled one million tons.

    Russia and Iran have also discussed cooperation in energy, electricity, nuclear energy, gas and oil, as well as cooperation in the field of railways, industry, and agriculture. Novak said in February that Russia’s state trading enterprise Promsirieimport has been authorized by the government to carry out the purchase of Iran’s oil through the oil-for-goods program under study by both countries

    The oil-for-goods swaps are expected to boost trade between the two countries (while conveniently circumventing the petrodollar system). The nations have also signed six provisional agreements to collaborate on “strategic” energy deals worth up to $30 billion.

    Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said earlier this month that Russian investment in Iranian oil and gas fields could total more than $50 billion.

    And in a sign of closer cooperation to come, Ushakov said Iran is weighing whether to enter the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union – a move that could come within months. A free-trade zone deal would be expected to “trigger further development of our bilateral trade and expansion of investment cooperation.”

  • "A Calamitous Collapse": Former Podesta Group Employees Reveal Truth Behind Firm's Downfall

    Former Podesta Group employees have spilled the beans about their former boss, Tony Podesta – in a scathing Wall Street Journal article which details the firm’s collapse. As part of the report, The Journal got its hands on “internal Podesta Group accounting,” as well as “financial documents, calendars and communications.”

    The D.C. lobbying firm founded in 1993 by John and Tony Podesta folded shop following Hillary Clinton’s monumental loss in the 2016 US election, when a flood of clients ran for the door virtually overnight, realizing the Podesta Group’s influence ended with the Clinton campaign. 

    The Journal describes Tony Podesta’s fall as a “calamitous collapse” following the 2016 US election:

    Then he fell, a calamitous collapse propelled by unexpected blows, delivered by fate and made worse by hubris. Financial problems, legal threats and the election of President Donald Trump took it all away—the clients, the firm and, finally, Mr. Podesta’s position as one of Washington’s most influential players.

    Here are some cliff notes from the report:

    • The Podesta Group ended 2015 as Washington D.C.’s third largest Lobbying firm, with nearly $30 million in revenue from over 100 clients – who promptly bailed after Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 election. That didn’t seem to bother Tony.  

    The string of embarrassing news accounts disturbed many of the Podesta Group’s corporate clients, companies that preferred to stay clear of such publicity. Mr. Podesta operated as if the whole mess would soon blow over.WSJ

    • The Podesta Group got in trouble for the IRS for improperly reporting a $300,000 shipping expense for Tony Podesta’s art, after which he began billing his firm $360,000 a year to rent pieces displayed at the office. 

    Employees of the Podesta Group set up a system to prevent Mr. Podesta from being reimbursed by the company for personal expenditures. A 36-page instruction manual for Mr. Podesta’s executive assistants included this directive: “It is up to you and your best judgment as to what gets reimbursed.”

    • Podesta told his employees that he would entertain letting them buy equity in the firm – then worth an estimated $50 million, then stiffed them when they showed up to discuss. 

    Firm employees approached Mr. Podesta in early 2014 about selling them a share of the business. The Podesta Group was worth at least $50 million at the time, former employees estimated. Over dinner, Mr. Podesta told them he was open to the idea and suggested they meet with lawyers.

    On the day of the meeting, employees gathered in the firm’s conference room. Mr. Podesta didn’t show.

    • Tony Podesta worked for clients without his firm’s knowledge – such as Italian tire maker Pirelli, which paid $113,500 a year to Podesta while the Podesta Group was concurrently representing French tire manufacturer Michelin.  

    Neither Michelin nor its Podesta Group lobbyists knew about Mr. Podesta’s side deal, according to the people involved.

    • SunTrust bank severed ties with the Podesta Group when they discovered that they were doing work for a U.S. subsidiary of a sanctioned Russian bank – presumably Russia’s Kremlin-owned Sberbank, which paid the Podesta group $170,000 over a 6 month period through September 2016 to lobby against 2014 economic sanctions by the Obama administration.

    SunTrust Banks Inc. sought to sever ties with the firm over the sanctioned Russian bank. The Podesta Group’s chief executive sent an exasperated email to a colleague. “Tony thinks these types of clients have no repercussions on the firm,” she said, but “this should really provide evidence that we have to take the clients we bring on seriously.”

    Following Mrs. Clinton’s defeat that November, the Podesta Group cut bonuses and commissions.

    • One day after US prosecutors announced the indictments of Manafort and Gates, “an official with the firm’s new bank, Chain Bridge Bank, demanded $655,000 in cash or collateral within 24 hours – or it would cut the firm’s credit line.

    Mr. Trump, who occasionally pointed an unwelcome spotlight on the firm, tweeted that day: “The biggest story yesterday, the one that has the Dems in a dither, is Podesta running from his firm.” –WSJ

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    • Podesta’s purchases of artwork behind his wife’s back reportedly caused Heather Podesta to file for divorce. Tony kept most of his art collection, while Heather received nearly $5 million in retirement savings, homes in Washington and Manhattan, and $4 million paid quarterly over five years. 

    • The day after Tony’s Podesta’s expensive divorce was finalized, he told employees the firm could make more money by abandoning their liberal ethos and representing big tobacco and the NRA – leading to one lobbyist quitting, costing the firm over $2 million in annual revenue. 
    • Clients were spooked as Special Counsel Robert Mueller began closing in on associate Paul Manafort. Recall the Podesta Group decided (coincidentally) to retroactively file as a foreign agent for their work with the Manafort’s Pro-Russia Centre for a Modern Ukraine campaign – tied to former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych, shortly before Manafort’s indictment. The Podesta Group made $1.2 million as part of that effort

    Before dawn on Monday Oct. 23, 2017, NBC News reported that Mr. Mueller was preparing to indict Mr. Manafort and implicate Mr. Podesta regarding the Ukraine work. The phones started ringing: Clients wanted to know what was going on. The firm’s bank wanted to discuss its account.

    The following night, Mr. Podesta threw himself a birthday party, serving hundreds of guests pizza from a brick-oven stove in his backyard in Kalorama. –WSJ

    • The unraveling was swift. As clients such as Wells Fargo, Wal Mart and Oracle Corp. bailed on the Podesta Group, they death-spiraled into default – as Tony refused to pledge his giant art collection against firm obligations. 

    With clients leaving, the Podesta Group had no money. Rent was due the next day. One idea was to use Mr. Podesta’s art collection as collateral for a loan, but he refused.

    “At that time, it was inadvisable to provide additional guarantees as an individual for the obligations of the corporation,” the Podesta Group’s spokeswoman said.

    The Podesta Group’s chief financial officer sent Mr. Podesta a 7:23 p.m. email: “If we don’t have collateral pledged prior to 5pm tomorrow, we will be in default.” If the firm went into default, the CFO wrote, “we will not be able to meet our rent, your art payments, ad campaigns, and most importantly payroll.

    Mr. Podesta responded: “need list of next 5 layoffs,” among other questions. The next day, he left for an art show in Turin, Italy. The bank’s deadline passed.

    On Friday, the firm’s CFO quit. That night, a senior manager sent an email to Mr. Podesta, still in Italy, saying the bank had frozen the firm’s funds.

    “This means that we have no way to pay employees,” the email said. “If we do not alert employees immediately that we have no way to pay them for their work, the firm is committing fraud.” –WSJ

    Meanwhile, in October 2017 a “long time” former Podesta Group executive with “direct personal knowledge” detailed several other aspects of life inside Tony Podesta’s lobbying machine to Tucker Carlson. Some bombshell claims and quotes from the former employee:

    • In 2013, John Podesta allegedly recommended that Tony hire David Adams, Hillary Clinton’s chief adviser at the State Department, giving them a “direct liaison” between the group’s Russian clients and Hillary Clinton’s State Department
    • In late 2013 or early 2014, Tony Podesta and a representative for the Clinton Foundation reportedly met to discuss how to help Uranium One – the Russian owned company that controls 20 percent of American Uranium Production – and whose board members gave over $100 million to the Clinton Foundation.
    • “Tony Podesta was basically part of the Clinton Foundation.”
    • Believing she would win the 2016 election, Russia considered the Podesta Group’s connection to Hillary highly valuable.

    Separately, White House visitor logs revealed that Tony Podesta visited the White House at least 114 times during the Obama administration, and was said to have had “special access” to the administration through his brother, John Podesta, while lobbying for various pro-Kremlin interests.

    • Podesta Group was a nebulous organization with no board oversight and all financial decisions made by Tony Podesta. Carlson’s source said payments and kickbacks could be hard for investigators to trace, describing it as a “highly secret treasure trove.” One employee’s only official job was to manage Tony Podesta’s art collection, which could be used to conceal financial transactions.

    The Podesta group also earned $180,000 lobbying for Russian-owned mining company Uranium One during the same period that the Clinton Foundation was receiving millions from individuals connected to the U1 transaction.

    The WSJ must have inadvertently left out another factor which may have contributed to Podesta Group clients heading for the hills; a spotlight on Tony Podesta’s strange artwork which began swirling around the internet during the emergence of the discredited “pizzagate” theory.

    Internet sleuths pointed to a June, 2015 issue of “Washington Life” magazine featuring some of Tony Podesta’s artwork, along with a 2004 Washington Post article entitled Married, With Art – describing how shocked Podesta guests stumbled across pictures of naked teenagers during a house tour. 

    At political events, there’s an inevitable awkwardness,” former Clinton administration official Sally Katzen

    Folks attending a house tour in the Lake Barcroft neighborhood in Falls Church earlier this year got an eyeful when they walked into a bedroom at the Podesta residence hung with multiple color pictures by Katy Grannan, a photographer known for documentary-style pictures of naked teenagers in their parents’ suburban homes. “They were horrified,” Heather recalls, a grin spreading across her face. –WaPo

    One piece of art which sparked curiosity is an illustration of a girl against a green background:

    Photo: Joseph Allen, Washington Life Magazine

    As well as more pictures of children laying around:

    …from an artist who creates pictures of children in grotesque circumstances:

    Then there’s artist Louise Bourgeois’ “Arch of Hysteria” in Podesta’s Falls Church home – a headless body contorted into a “tetanus arch” – which also happens to be a pose Jeffrey Dahmer posed at least one victim. Comet Ping Pong pizza shop owner James Alefantis – another figure in the unproven “pizzagate” controversy, thought it was pretty cool while he was hanging out at Podesta’s place.

    Here’s one of Podesta’s many other staircases in 2014:

    Tony also loaned out a wax statue entitled “Dismembered” to the DC College of Arts and Sciences in 2011, which appears to depict a vivisected child:

    At the end of the day, disturbing art or not – Hillary Clinton’s loss meant that Tony Podesta’s ability to provide clients access to the White House had disappeared for at least four more years. Indeed, the Podesta Group lost its most valuable commodity on the night of November 8, 2016 – and the rest is history.

  • The Dollar's 70-Year Dominance Slowly Coming To An End

    Authored by Alex Deluce via GoldTelegraph.com,

    The US dollar hasn’t been backed by gold since 1971, but that might change soon.

    Republican Congressman Alex Mooney is proposing that the US once again place value on the dollar by backing it with physical gold. The problem is, the Federal Reserve has been printing money with the abandon of a drunken copy machine, and the 147.3 million ounces of gold being held in Ft. Knox may not be enough to cover the out-of-control fiat currency currently in circulation.

    According to Alex Mooney’s bill, the dollar has decreased 30 percent in purchasing power since 2000. It has lost 96 percent of its value since 1913. On an average, the US is devalued by 50 percent every generation.

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    If the gold standard were to be reinstated, control of the dollar would revert to free market forces instead of the whim of the Federal Reserve. It would mean that each dollar would have its equivalent in gold, as it did prior to 1913. At that time, the US economy grew at a robust annual rate of 4 percent compared to an average annual growth of 2 percent since 2000.

    Officially, the US has 8,133.5 tons of gold in reserves, although the government won’t confirm that number. No one is permitted inside the various vaults to verify. Even the purity of the available gold bars is in question, as many may not conform to industry standards. As other countries contemplate the return to the gold standard, unless the US catches up, the dollar will lose its dominance as the world reserve currency.

    China launched its oil futures-backed Petro-Yuan in March.

    The oil industry has revolved around the petrodollar since the 1970s. It is expected that the Petro-Yuan will take up to $800 billion worth of trade from the petrodollar. Currently, the petrodollar secures global demand for the dollar. For the US, the petrodollar translates into tremendous purchasing power. China’s Petro-Yuan may change all that.

    China is the largest crude oil importer in the world, and that may give it enough leverage to unseat the US dollar when it begins to pay Saudi Arabia for its crude in Petro-Yuan. This provides an opportunity for oil exporters to bypass the current powerful petrodollar arrangement. If this happens, it could mean serious trouble for the US dollar. The value of the dollar is heavily dependent upon US oil imports. If oil exporters become dependent on the Petro-Yuan instead of the petrodollar, it could be the death blow for the dollar. In addition to the Petro-Yuan, China has been quietly building up its gold reserves for years and may have plans to ultimately back the yuan with gold.

    President Trump has been discussing tariffs on Chinese imports while attempting to persuade Beijing not to use its crude oil contracts as a means of trade. China is unlikely to agree to this, thus opening the possibility of a nasty trade war between the two countries.

    China has much to lose in a trade war. Its economy is overly dependent on exports to the US. Also, the Petro-Yuan is, as yet, an unknown quantity, while the petrodollar has been securely established for decades. In addition, the US is less dependent on oil than China, as it is able to produce more oil for its own needs. While China’s oil futures are a wakeup call to the US, they are still a dice toss.

    Additionally, Germany is another country that is rediscovering the value of gold. The Deutsche Bundesbank has recently recalled $28 billion worth of gold previously stored in New York and Paris back to Frankfurt.

    The National Bank of Hungary has called back 100,000 ounces of gold back to its Budapest reserves in an effort to strengthen its own market. Other central banks have followed suit. There is a global interest in keeping gold reserves close to home in the event of upheaval in the geopolitical situation.

    At this point, it is unknown whether Congressman Mooney’s bill to reinstate the gold standard will pass. What is certain is that the global interest in gold continues to take off. In bettor’s terms, gold is the last ace in the hole for global currency stability.

  • Police Foil Murder-For-Hire Plot After Woman Paid $10K In Bitcoin Over The Dark Web

    And just like that, yet another murder-for-hire plot involving bitcoin has been foiled.

    A Chicago TV  station is reporting that a nurse from the city’s northwest suburbs named Tina Jones has been charged with solicitation of murder-for-hire after trying to use the dark web to hire a company to murder the wife of a man she had an affair with.

    Jones appeared in bond court Wednesday morning where a judge set her bond at $250,000. On April 12, Woodridge, Ill. police received a tip that a woman was the subject of a murder-for-hire plot. Police said that in January 2018, Jones paid the dark web company $10,000 via bitcoin to have a woman murdered.

    Jones

    Jones turned herself in after a warrant was issued.

    Jones is scheduled to appear in court on May 15. If convicted, she faces a minimum sentence of 20 years in prison.

    Prosecutors said Jones gave very specific orders.

    “This woman not only paid over $10,000, but she left specific instructions on the website as to when the woman’s husband would be at work, so they would know when this woman would be alone,” Berlin said. “She left instructions not to hurt the husband and also to make it look like it was an accident.”

    Of course, longtime followers of the pioneering cryptocurrency will remember that the founder of the Silk Road, Ross Ulbricht received his life without parole sentence largely because he “hired” what turned out to be an undercover federal agent to carry out a hit on an associate Ulbricht had suspected of turning on him.

  • The World's First Trillionaire Will Be A Space Miner

    Authored by Michael Kern via SafeHaven.com,

    Famous astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson and Goldman Sachs share a common belief: The next trillion-dollar industry will be in the mining sector – in outer space.  

    As Neil deGrasse Tyson puts it:

    The first trillionaire there will ever be is the person who exploits the natural resources on asteroids. There’s this vast universe of limitless energy and limitless resources. I look at wars fought over access to resources. That could be a thing of the past, once space becomes our backyard.”

    While the renowned astrophysicist sees the potential for peace, Goldman Sachs sees the radical arrival of a trillion-dollar mining industry in the 21st Century.

    It may sound like a long-term gamble, but Goldman has been eyeing improvements in technology and the trends toward lowers costs for manufacturing spacecraft.

    A year ago, Goldman noted in a 98-page report:

    “While the psychological barrier to mining asteroids is high, the actual financial and technological barriers are far lower. Prospecting probes can likely be built for tens of millions of dollars each and Caltech has suggested an asteroid-grabbing spacecraft could cost $2.6bn.”

    So, science fiction is becoming the narrative of reality, and radical opinions are starting to seem rather sober.

    All the more because the whole idea is being given a major boost in Luxembourg of all places.

    Asteroid mining is being led by private sector interests that are dead set on making money in outer space.

    Two of the leading companies formed with this in mind are California-based Deep Space Industries and Washington-based Planetary Resources. Both have been operating for several years, and both plan on profiting from asteroid mining.

    But the tiny European country of Luxembourg is hoping to become the hub of cosmic mining—a tax haven banking center-turned-asteroid-exploiter. So it’s no mystery why Deep Space Industries, for instance, has offices both in Luxembourg as well and a partnership with the government of Luxembourg.

    Luxembourg is home to a few communication satellite companies and has a similar asteroid mining law to the U.S. law, which makes the small nation an attractive alternative to the U.S. market. This European country sees massive opportunity and plans to be way ahead of the game.

    “Our goal is to put into place an overall framework for the exploration and commercial use of resources from ‘celestial bodies’ such as asteroids, or from the moon,” said Etienne Schneider, Luxembourg’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of the Economy.

    Once a famous steel producer, an experienced commercial satellite hub, and now famed for private banking and low-tax base, Luxembourg’s mining and financial backgrounds make it a prime candidate for the race to cosmic natural resources.

    The first European private satellite operator, Société Européenne des Satellites, was launched in 1985 and today it’s the second-biggest commercial satellite operator in the world.

    Luxembourg started working on an asteroid mining bill since 2016 that came into force last year, giving companies ownership over whatever, they extract from celestial bodies. This law is very similar to Obama’s law signed in 2015, which also gives mining companies the right to keep their cosmic loot.

    Both laws also take advantage of a loophole in the United Nation’s Outer Space Treaty, which states that nations can’t claim and occupy the moon and other celestial bodies—but it doesn’t say anything about what’s extracted from them.  

    There won’t be any ownership of asteroids, either.

    The only difference between these laws is that in the case of Luxembourg, companies don’t have to be based in the country in order to enjoy protection. An office will suffice.

    Luxembourg established the Space Resources initiative in 2016 and earmarked $223 million of its national space budget to provide early-stage funding and grants to companies working toward space mining.

    Deep Space Industries and Planetary Resources are already working closely with Luxembourg’s government, which contributed an undisclosed amount of R&D funding to Deep Space Industries and struck a deal with Planetary Resources in 2016 for a $28 million investment in exchange for undisclosed equity in the company.

    While there may be limitless natural resources from asteroid mining, as deGrasse Tyson notes, the first commercial commodity is likely to be precious water.

    It may be decades before anyone actually starts ‘fracking’ an asteroid and delivering new natural resources, but when it happens, Luxembourg will have secured its place on the space map as a definitive hub.

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Today’s News 19th April 2018

  • The Global Smartphone Boom Has Peaked, IMF Warns

    As it turns out, Apple executives aren’t the only ones who should be worried about slowing smartphone sales: The trend has the potential to hammer global economic growth – especially in Asia, where the rise of mobile technology has created increasingly complex supply chains.

    The IMF highlights this dangerous trend in its latest World Economic Outlook (albeit buried on page 34 of the report’s first chapter). In it, researchers lead with a stunning statistic. In 2017, global smartphone sales reached 1.5 billion units – that’s one smartphone for every fifth person on the planet.

    IMF

    Taken together, smartphone production and sales contributed $3.6 trillion (4.5%) to the global economy in 2017. Across Asia, sales of smartphones and smartphone components are accounting for an increasing share of total exports. Furthermore, they account for one-sixth of the growth in global trade.

    In 2017, China exported $128 billion worth of smartphones to the rest of the world, equivalent to 5.7 percent of its total exports. In Korea (the main supplier of smartphone components) semiconductor exports alone accounted for 17.1 percent of total exports. Similarly, components for smartphone production at the peak (October 2017) accounted for more than one-third of exports from Taiwan Province of China, 17.4 percent from Malaysia, and 15.9 percent from Singapore

    However, these data mask a troubling trend: Smartphones’ rising contribution to global GDP was last year largely driven by higher prices per unit. Looking past this, the number of units sold actually shrunk for the first time ever.

    This growth was driven mainly by an increase in value added per unit, rather than units sold, which declined for the first time on record. As a result, the average sale price of an iPhone increased from $618 in 2016 to $798 in 2017, according to Apple Inc. quarterly financial statements. In the five main Asian economies involved in the tech cycle (China, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan Province of China), total exports grew by 6.7 percent in 2017. Even though tech exports accounted for less than 10 percent of total exports in the region, smartphone-related exports contributed about one-third the growth rate of total exports.

    That’s because, as the IMF explains, demand for smartphones is highly cyclical and dependent on release dates of new phones. This new cycle differs from tech growth cycles of years’ past, which were mostly driven by personal computers.

    Two

    This new cycle unfurls in two phases, and is heavily dependent on the release of new models of the Apple iPhone:

    Apple Inc.’s iPhone releases are the key determinant of the new tech cycle. Reflecting booming global demand, iPhone sales surged from 35.1 million units in the first quarter of 2012 to 78.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2016 (Figure 1.1.2). While a clear quarterly pattern is emerging—in which second- and third-quarter sales are usually weaker, reflecting the expectations of another release in the fourth quarter— the amplitude of this quarterly pattern has only really been established since the release of the iPhone 6/6 Plus in September 2014. Moreover, there are clear spillovers from the fourth quarter of the previous year onto the first quarter of the following year, ahead of the Lunar New Year in China.

    The new tech cycle can be subdivided into two components. The first is the prerelease cycle, which comprises the export of all components from several Asian countries to China—the final producer of most smartphones. The second is the postrelease cycle, with shipments of smartphones from China to the rest of the world. Both pre- and postrelease cycles have a strong impact on growth and trade patterns in Asia and beyond.

    Looking more closely, the IMF says that global sales of smartphones might actually have plateaued in late 2015, and the market is showing warning signs of becoming over saturated.

    Global sales of smartphones may have plateaued in late 2015. By decomposing the cycle from trend for Chinese exports of smartphones, regression results show that the trend is nonlinear and may have reached its peak in September 2015, suggesting that future global demand for smartphones may grow more slowly (driven more by replacement demand than new acquisitions). This is confirmed by updated regression results on Chinese export data up to December 2017 (see Figure 1.1.3). In fact, global shipments of smartphones declined in 2017 for the first time on record (IDC 2018).

    Fortunately for the Asian economies where a slowdown in smartphone sales might have the biggest impact, wearable devices, smart appliances and car computers are all seeing gains accelerate – meaning any slowdown in smartphone sales might be offset by increases in other tech products.

    Three

    In any event, the tech sector’s importance to Asia’s economy remains paramount – which is perhaps one reason why the Trump administration backed out of adding a plethora of consumer tech products to a list of Chinese goods that have been threatened with tariffs.

  • Will Armenia Be The Next Victim Of Western-Backed Regime Change?

    Authored by Frank Sellers via TheDuran.com,

    Well-meaning Armenians have no idea that their grievances are being played upon by international interests like a pawn on a global chess board…

    Tens of thousands of protesters have taken to the streets in all major cities across Armenia as the outgoing president, Serzh Sargsyan, is elected Prime Minister by the Parliament.

    The move is largely perceived as a power grab, as Sargsyan will largely retain the same powers that he held during his two terms in the Presidential capacity.

    This move takes place just after Armenia’s April 9th transition from a presidential system to that of a prime ministerial one.

    Western backed Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have been heavily involved in post Soviet Armenia’s education system, community and charity works. These NGOs have been selling the public on the perception that Armenia’s economic woes are directly the result of their corrupt, Russia friendly government, as well as Russia itself.

    Hence, the concept that Sargsyan’s government has only made matters for the population worse is the grievance upon which much of the unrest hinges. With Sargsyan seen as being in bed with the Russians, and his further development of Armenia’s ties with Russia, these protests therefore possess a potentially disastrous outcome, both domestically, for the Armenians, and also geopolitically, as it threatens Russia’s position in the region.

    However, Armenia has been playing both sides of the fence in recent years, as it has additionally been moving closer to the European Union, signing itself to a Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement with the European bloc, attempting to deepen diplomacy and economic ties with the West, while simultaneously making commitments to Russia’s economic initiatives in the region. Russia gets a villainous wrap over the fact that Russia is playing both sides of the Nagorno Karabakh-Azerb conflict, as Russia is the benefactor of both players, the common perception, derived from the propaganda of these NGOs, is that Russia benefits by stoking the conflict.

    The situation, in effect, represents a powder keg scenario, with all the elements in place to provoke the necessary popular discontent that would play into an attempt at regime change.

    And, indeed, this situation has all the markings of a color revolution, as the ring leader for this movement, Nikol Pashinyan, is already calling it a “velvet revolution”, an allusion to the regime change that took place in Czechoslovakia in 1989.

    Pashinyan has called upon protesters to obstruct roadways and prevent the opening of governmental offices, and has been so bold as to declare that the Armenian government “no longer holds legitimacy”, and that all government agencies and police personnel should only be obedient to “committees” appointed by his revolution.

    Keep in mind, however, that Sargsyan hasn’t, thus far, broken any law, nor violated the Armenian constitution, so, Pashinyan’s claim against Sargsyan’s legitimacy can only be viewed as a baseless instigation for further violence and an obstinate unwillingness to look for a middle ground scenario, or peaceful resolution to the situation at hand. An unwillingness to compromise satisfies one of the key factors that is commonly seen in many color revolutions.

    The typical manner in which Western backed color revolutions unfold is when a peaceful protest about legitimate grievances are hijacked to become the catalyst for a violent revolution. If we consider the EuroMaidan revolution that took place in 2014, a peaceful protest turned violent after the slaughter of the “heavenly hundred” by mystery snipers, killing police and protesters both, in order to help the conflict along to a point of no return to peace.

    To date, the situation on the streets of Yerevan seems to be going in a similar direction, as the protests have already turned semi violent, with police officers sustaining knife wounds. Note that this sort of behaviour is foreign to the Armenian psyche. Western provocateurs are often present to stir up mayhem when these tragedies occur. Pictured here are some of the assailants, observe also that the fellow on the left is not an Armenian.

    In January 2015, Sargsyan made Armenia a signatory to the Partnership for peace, linking military cooperation with both Russian forces within Armenia and NATO, and joined the Russian led Eurasian Economic Union.

    Within six months of these agreements involving Russia, the Armenian government faced popular riots aimed at regime change, with the uprising being dubbed “Electric Yerevan”, and the grievance being used to provoke the civil unrest being that of the proposed increase in electricity prices. Nikol Pashinyan, enjoyed the position of prominence in this movement, as well as in the one that is currently ongoing in Yerevan, and across Armenia today.

    Approximately one year later, riots again broke out about the arrest of an opposition leader, with the protest quickly turning violent, leading to a hostage situation and the shooting of two on duty police officers, which saw the Western media and the US Embassy in Armenia taking sides with the hostage takers. In the following video, produced by German media, we can see that some of these factors appear to fit the recipe for a Western backed color revolution, and the geopolitical factors involved.

    Many Armenians are of the persuasion that by changing their government and rejecting Russia as Armenia’s strategic partner, in favour of hopeful Western integration, Armenia will realize greater economic opportunity, and a vastly improved standard of living for the average Armenian.

    However, what does history show us about just what Western-backed regime changes bring to their victim nation? Let’s observe the economic situation in the Ukraine before and after the coup d’é-tat, as reported by Vesti:

    If we evaluate the results of the new government, they’re simply disastrous for the country. In the year before the coup, the GDP was estimated at $180 billion, in 2017 it’s expected to be half as much, $90 billion.

    The average salary in the country was more than halved, from $408 per month to $196 last year. The exchange rate of the hryvna fell three and a half times, from 8 to 27 per dollar. As the main high-tech enterprises are destroyed, the economy acquired a colonial structure.

    More and more raw materials are exported, being nearly 80% of exports. Half of this is agrarian. Total export volume fell by 57%. Foreign direct investment fell by at least four times, from 6 billion a year to one and a half. That’s practically nothing. And out of this nothing, however, most of the investment still comes from Russia.

    The national debt has been increasing all the time and has now become difficult to be paid back. It was 64 billion dollars which then became 80 billion. Many millions of its citizens have left the country in search of a better life. Some of them went to the West, some to Russia. The health system and the education system have deteriorated.

    The system of legal proceedings as well. Corporate raiding became the norm. Corruption increased. The country broke into pieces.

    Poroshenko and his team deceived everyone: the West, and Russia, and their people in terms of the country’s prospects, the practices of the new government, and the Minsk Agreements.

    An about-face with regards to Russia, and an adherence to the West, however, not only fails to present the economic outcome that many Armenians might hope for, but it presents a very real danger in the form of a greater escalation of conflict with its neighbor Azerbaijan, with regards to Nagorno Karabakh, the last such major conflict costed the lives of some 6,000 Armenians, and approximately 30,000 Azeris.

    Additionally, if these protests continue to move in a violent direction, and categorically seek regime change, if the government does not step down in favor of the opposition, but instead opts to call in the military to defend itself, then the situation could lead to a destabilization of the country. During such a period of chaos, it is not unthinkable that the Azerbs could seize the opportunity to launch a fresh campaign to take Nagorno Karabakh while Armenia’s government and forces are concerned with preserving order elsewhere.

    Such a renewed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan produces results that are simply unpredictable, concerning the geopolitical implications regarding the involvement of Russia and NATO, seeing as Armenia hosts Russian military bases, while Azerbaijan is host to a NATO base, but if the Armenians have broken off its relations with the Russians in the favor of the West, Russian involvement is left in a state of bewilderment, while the conflict devastates Russia’s economic and military perspective in the region. This, therefore, holds the possibility of being the next proxy war between Russia and the West.

    Therefore, these protests are exceedingly dangerous, not just for the region, but also relevant to the geopolitical balance of power between the east and west, due to the possibilities that could be unleashed if these protests escalate out of control. While protests against Sargsyan’s government isn’t anything new, considering the protests of recent years, the protests taking place at the present time differ from its predecessors in the sense that previous riots were confined only to Yerevan, whereas the current uprising is national in its scale, and therefore presents a much greater concern.

    Meanwhile, the well meaning populace of Armenia has no idea that their grievances are being played upon by international interests like a pawn on a global chess board.

  • Largest Chinese Naval Drill "In 600 Years" Begins: Live-Fire Exercise In Taiwan Strait

    Last week, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) assembled all of its most advanced warships, aircraft, and nuclear submarines for a massive show of force in the South China Sea. We explained, how the 3-day war drill from April 10 through 13 would be held in the waters south of China’s Hainan Island.

    Asia Times estimates some 10,000 People’s Liberation Army airmen, marines and sailors boarded 48 naval warships and 76 aircraft to show their loyalty and devotion to President Xi Jinping, who was greeted on a destroyer “by a resounding chorus of platitudes from soldiers.”

    Exclusive: Xi Jinping reviews PLAN Drill in the South China Sea

    State-run Chinese papers said the number of warships assembled “the largest of its kind in 600 years.” This is following the 14th-century fleet admiral Zheng He, whose large expeditions in Southeast Asia, South Asia, Western Asia, and East Africa — helped establish China’s power through expansion of the Maritime Silk Road during the Ming dynasty era.

    Which by the way, looks similar to President Xi Jinping 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road.

    Just a few days after Beijing’s historic show of force in the South China Sea. President Xi Jinping sent Taipei a clear message with warnings of ‘last-minute’ live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait, said the South China Morning Post.

    “Beijing’s first live-fire exercise in the Taiwan Strait in three years, which is expected to include the first drill appearance in the area by aircraft carrier the Liaoning, appears to be a last-minute countermove to Washington’s attempt to play the Taiwan card.”

    The one-day naval drill will be conducted on Wednesday, which marks the first time the PLAN has held live-fire exercises in the strait since September 2015; also coincides with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen four-day trip to Swaziland.

    Song Zhongping, a military expert and TV commentator, told the South China Morning Post that Liaoning’s presence at the upcoming war drill in the Strait would send a forceful message to Taipei.

    “It’s likely the Liaoning carrier strike group will take part in the Taiwan Strait drill, presenting a direct and powerful deterrence to Tsai’s administration and the island’s independence-leaning forces,” he added.

    A source close to the PLAN told the South China Morning Post that the major objective of the Taiwan Strait exercise is to show Beijing’s support for Russia, which is facing a very high possibility of direct military confrontation with the United States in Syria.

    “[US President] Donald Trump’s warning of military attacks on Syria forces was a bit of a surprise for Beijing and Moscow,” the person said.

    “As Russia’s strategic partner, Beijing is trying to cause some well-timed and controlled trouble for the US, a drill in the Taiwan Strait being the most plausible option that will benefit both Xi and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.”

    Macau-based military analyst Antony Wong Dong, agreed with the South China Morning Post’s source, by saying: “Beijing is trying to give some relief to Russia from the unfolding disputes with the US over the Syria crisis.”

    However, both military analysts, proficient in Sino-US relations, maintained that the military drill was aimed directly at Taipei ahead of a visit by US national security adviser John Bolton to the American Institute in Taiwan.

    Earlier this month, the Trump administration cleared various American manufacturers for business to sell submarine technology to Taiwan, which deeply angered Beijing.

    “The live-fire drills would almost certainly be intended to be seen as a response to the Trump administration’s new initiatives over Taiwan,” Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute at the University of London, said.

    “It is probably intended more for Taipei than Washington as the military exercise cannot intimidate the US but can get Taipei to think of the security dilemma, which is that the more Taipei seeks to secure US support, the more Beijing will do to make Taipei feel less secure.”

    Ni Feng, director of the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the parallel events of the Syrian crisis and the Taiwan Strait war drill is coincidental.

    “Beijing needs to send its warning to Taipei on time if Bolton wants to visit Taipei, which will obviously be a breakthrough [in the US-Taiwan relationship],” he said.

    Yun Sun, director of the China programme at the Stimson Centre in Washington, agreed with the other military analyst, stating the Trump administration is playing a dangerous game “using Taiwan as a potential bargaining chip with China.”

    “With Trump’s love for transactions and linking issues together, it is conceivable that he is using Taiwan as a potential bargaining chip with China,” she said.

    That move increases “the possibility of an armed conflict between the US and [mainland] China out of miscalculation; and it creates an illusion that Taiwan is up for negotiation”.

    “For many policy experts, US support for Taiwan is warranted, and should be independent from political or economic deals [between Washington and Beijing].”

    The threat of World War III has never been greater…

  • The Road To 2025 (Part 1) – Prepare For A Multi-Polar World

    Authored by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    If pressed to describe what I think the next several years will look like as concisely as possible, I’d simply provide the following quote, often misattributed to Lenin:

    “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”

    There will be many such weeks from now until 2025, with the end result an emergence of a multi-polar world that will permanently unseat the unipolar U.S. imperial paradigm.

    Since World War 2, the U.S. has successfully sustained a position of global dominance unlike anything the world’s ever seen. Virtually each and every corner of the planet has been subject to inescapable and overwhelming American influence, both culturally and economically. This root of this power didn’t just emerge from GDP strength and the USD, but from Hollywood, popular music and tv shows. The impact of the U.S. empire on the planet over the past 70 years has been extraordinary but, like all things, it too shall pass. I believe this end will be realized by around 2025.

    When I say this sort of stuff people think I’m calling for the end of the world. I suppose that’s what it may feel like to many, because a paradigm change of this magnitude will indeed have monumental global implications.

    Yet the world will go on, it’ll just be very different place. That said, Americans should not see this as an apocalyptic thing. It’s not healthy or sustainable for one nation to dominate the planet in such a manner. Many of us like to think that a benevolent global empire led by philosopher kings is just fine, but the problem is this is utter fantasy. What happens in real life, to quote Lord Acton, is  that “power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.”

    This is precisely what’s happened in the U.S.

    The country’s been looted and pillaged with rapacious fervor in recent decades while a unaccountable class of people I refer to as top-tier predators operate at will with total impunity. The man on the street’s thrown in jail for the smallest offense, while financiers who destroyed the global economy with fraud retire comfortably to their mansions. The U.S. empire no longer benefits the average American, but instead systematically funnels all the spoils to a smaller and smaller segment of the population. Most of the world already sees it, and the average U.S. citizen is starting to see it as well. This is not good for the establishment.

    This is also why the U.S. status quo constantly lies to the public with its nonsense narrative that U.S. military action overseas is based on humanitarian concerns and a desire to spread democracy. Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, all significant U.S. military action overseas is driven by money and power. Humanitarian concerns play zero role. Not even a small role, zero.

    Caitlin Johnstone recently summarized what’s going with geopolitics perfectly with the following paragraph:

    The mass media narrative factory tries to make it about chemical weapons, about election meddling, about poisoned ex-spies, about humanitarian issues, but it has only ever been about expanding the power and influence of the oligarchs and allied intelligence/defense agencies which run the western empire. All the hostilities that we are seeing are nothing other than an extremely powerful conglomeration of forces poking and prodding noncompliant governments to coerce them into compliance before global power restructures itself into a multipolar world.

    The biggest problem for the U.S. establishment right now is people are no longer buying the narrative. They certainly aren’t buying it overseas, and even here in America, U.S. citizens are finally starting to see the “humanitarian bombings” for the shams they are. It’d be one thing if your average American was benefiting from U.S. empire, but they aren’t. Rather, the spoils are all going to a small handful of people from the top tier predator class, while life for tens of millions is characterized by dilapidated infrastructure, a completely broken healthcare system, continued unaccountable Wall Street looting, a decimation of of civil liberties, and an overall precarious economic existence that seems modeled off of the Hunger Games.

    The only people who don’t see how dysfunctional the U.S. empire is are the people running it. The U.S. establishment, which consists of a diverse assortment of elites from Wall Street, American intelligence agencies, mass media, Congress, the Federal Reserve, the military-industrial complex, etc., disagree on many things, but one thing they agree on completely is the U.S. empire — that it should not only be preserved, but expanded. The major problem for them is this isn’t 1995 anymore, they just haven’t got the memo yet.

    The U.S. establishment is either too busy making boatloads of money or playing keyboard warrior with other people’s lives to acknowledge what’s happening both here and abroad. A disconnected, greedy and unaccountable elite class filled with hubris and an insatiable hunger for power is a core ingredient in any imperial collapse, and this exists in America in droves at the moment. A reckoning is coming.

    Today’s piece focused on how the U.S. empire is no longer working for the average American citizen. Part 2 will focus on why it’s not working for the rest of the world either. 

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  • Hong Kong Dollar Spikes Most In 3 Months As HKMA Chief Jawbones

    Having blown through almost US$7 billion in the last few days to rescue the Hong Kong Dollar from breaking the weaker-end of its peg-band, the HKD is jumping (most in 3 months) following comments that HKMA doesn’t see “large-scale shorting” but more arbitrage activities.

    In a press briefing, Hong Kong Monetary Authority Deputy Chief Executive Howard Lee said FX transactions are in line with expectations and sees no unusual HKD shorting activity. As Bloomberg notes, Lee said:

    • A lot of outflows are arbitrage activities, but probably of asset transfers.

    • HKD purchases operation is smooth and sound.

    • HKMA will carefully handle if unusual activity is seen.

    • HKD interbank rates are slowly increasing and HKMA expects this to continue.

    • Market confidence is strong on linked exchange system and the HKMA.

    • Exchange fund bills will be available for bank funding when needed.

    And the local currency jumped most since Jan 17th…

    As a reminder, Lee is the same gentlemen that warned Hong Kong citizens to “stay calm” as ATMs ran dry and the currency devalued.

    While this 0.07% spike is cause for some celebration at the HKMA, we note that – just as we have seen in the last few days – the strength is being sold into already…

     

    As while the LIBOR-HIBOR arb has improved (with cost of funds surging in Hong Kong), the spread of over 100bps remains a considerable draw for carry-traders…

    As a reminder, this story is not over yet, as this is an arbitrage, where traders take advantage of differences in prices, selling a low-yielding product (the Hong Kong dollar) to buy a high-yielding product (the US dollar). In this case, the price difference is between the local borrowing cost known as the Hong Kong interbank offered rate (Hibor) and the US borrowing cost known as the Libor.

    Simply put, traders are borrowing against the low Hibor, selling the Hong Kong dollar to buy the US currency for investments in high-yielding US assets. The difference between the two is widest since 2008.

    As more traders pile on to the carry, more pressure is placed on the Hong Kong dollar, causing it to weaken further against the US currency… and The Fed’s plan to hike rates (as many as four times – which just hit a cycle high) will do nothing to help ease the situation – meaning any dollars sold in defense of the weaker HKD will be battling global carry trade flows driven by The Fed’s tightening.

  • The Syrian Conflict Is A Distraction From A Secret War

    Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    Back in March 2010 I published an article titled ‘Will Globalists Trigger Yet Another World War?’under the pen name Giordano Bruno describing what I felt would be the most effective triggers for a new global conflict. In that article I pointed to Syria as the primary powder keg, followed in close second by Iran and Yemen. This was written well before the Syrian civil war was engineered by establishment interests. I focused on potential false flags that could be used as a rationale by the U.S. or Israel to invade the region, thereby giving Russia and China reason to retaliate, for the most part economically. Ultimately, this scenario would play out perfectly as a cover for the deliberate collapse of the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency.

    In August 2012 I reiterated my concerns in an article titled Syria And Iran Dominoes Lead To World War, right after the Syrian civil war began to gain momentum.

    Needless to say, I have not changed my general thesis since those days; however, I would like to touch upon certain factors now that the dangers I examined in those articles are mostly coming to pass in 2018.

    First, no hard evidence has been produced by western intelligence agencies to support the claim that Bashar Al Assad used chemical weapons against his own people. None. Therefore, there is no basis for the latest missile attacks on the regime. This same exact false flag tactic was attempted under the Obama administration to draw the U.S. people into open war in Syria, and it failed. Now the chemical weapon card is being played again, this time with a “conservative” president. The establishment must be hoping that Republicans will find excitement in becoming the war party so long after the Bush years.

    As I queried the last time a chemical false flag was attempted, what exactly does Assad have to gain by initiating a chemical attack against innocent civilians when he has the tactical momentum and upper hand in the civil war?  The answer is nothing.  The only people that have anything to gain by asserting such an attack, either real or fabricated, are people seeking to create chaos for their own benefit.

    The insinuation of neocon warmonger John Bolton into the Trump cabinet suggests that the neocons are very much back in charge and that ongoing war is guaranteed. At this late stage in the game, it is unlikely that our government or any other government involved in the Syrian theater even cares to explain its actions. When establishment criminals no longer care if their criminality is transparent to the public, THEN it is time for a large scale societal collapse.

    Second, each successive Trump involved theater, from the trade tariffs to international war tensions, has become progressively more dramatic, and I believe this is meant to hide the effects of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet cuts and interest rate hikes. The real and secret war being waged is not against Syria or Syria’s allies, but against the American people and our economic stability.

    In January of this year, I warned that central banks were preparing to enter into an accelerating process to deflate the massive market bubbles they created to prop up our fiscal system over the past several years. That process is indeed continuing, and each successive rate hike and balance sheet cut will act in a cumulative fashion. Meaning, central bankers are treating the global economy like an oversized Jenga tower, pulling blocks here and there until the system topples completely from lack of stability.

    This latest event in Syria is yet another grand gesture of illusion, designed to provide cover for the banking cabal as they pull the plug on financial life support. It also is timed rather conveniently for the Fed’s next policy meeting on May 1-2. The meeting is likely to include yet another interest rate hike as well as a large reduction in the balance sheet, resulting in another sizable plunge in stocks. All negative moves in our manipulated markets will now be blamed on Trump administration activities as well as blamed on trade retaliations by eastern nations. The mainstream media will no longer discuss the reality that central banks are the true cause behind a systemic breakdown.

    Third, the current pattern of events suggest there will be a joint economic retaliation by Russia and China. China has publicly admonished the U.S. government for its strike in Syria, and this is merely added to the increasing tensions over trade tariffs by Trump. Again, this is a perfect opportunity to undermine the U.S. economy, primarily through China and Russia initiating a dump of the dollar as the world reserve currency.

    The dump of the dollar has already begun in a semi-covert fashion. China’s currency has been inducted into the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket system, and China has also launched the first international oil exchange that does not use the dollar as the petro-currency. What many people are ignoring is the fact that the shift away from the dollar is being championed and helped along by the globalists at the IMF itself.

    An impending change in the global monetary framework is often referred to as the great “global economic reset” by IMF members like Christine Lagarde. This change will be facilitated by central banks as they sabotage their respective national economies through the creation and destruction of market bubbles. Ultimately, it will not be the Chinese Yuan that replaces the dollar as world reserve currency, but the SDR basket system, controlled by the IMF.

    The question of how this can be done by the globalists without an unprecedented liquidity crisis often comes up. I’m not so sure they care if there is a liquidity crisis, at least for a short time. Yes, the U.S. dollar has some of the most liquid markets in the world, but it is wrong to assume the globalists will not sacrifice those markets in order to force the public into accepting one world centralization of monetary administration (the biggest and most important step in establishing global government).

    People who argue that the dollar will never be demolished by the globalists cling to the false notion that there is no liquidity replacement for the dollar. In reality, there is a replacement — cyrptocurrencies and blockchain technology.

    The IMF has recently applauded blockchain systems and crypto as a potential rejuvenating force in international money transactions. Far from being opposed to cryptocurrencies, global elitists have been piling into them with praise and with investment dollars.

    The global economic reset is not about East versus West. It is not about trade wars and nationalism. No, the global reset is about banker centralization of assets and consolidation of power. Beyond that, it is about the public ACCEPTING the reset as necessary and “good” for society. Globalists want us to beg for their rule. When one understands this simple truth, all the current events and disasters of our era begin to make sense. Crisis is the quickest path to complacency and tyranny.

    The Syrian quagmire is a path to engineered and guided calamity.  Its effects will continue to leach into the economic world as an international excuse for a trade war tit-for-tat.  Syria is a smoke and mirrors game.

    The true war, a secret war, is being fought between liberty champions and lying globalists. For now it remains a cold war, a battle of principles and facts versus disinformation and fear. One day this war will become a hot one. Until that time, distractions will assail the public like a hailstorm. My hope is that we can educate enough people to see through the fog of this hidden war; enough people to come out the other side and change things for the better.

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  • Warsh, Druckenmiller Buy "Basis" – The Central-Bank-Inspired "Stable" Cryptocurrency

    Three Princeton grads just raised $133 million from some of Wall Street and Silicon Valley’s biggest investors for a cryptocurrency that is ‘boring by design’

    On Wednesday, the New Jersey-based cryptocurrency startup ‘Basis’ announced it had raised $133 million in a round backed by venture capital firms including GV (formerly Google Ventures), Bain Capital, Lightspeed Venture Partners, Andreessen Horowitz, and Sky Capital.

    Stanley Druckenmiller, the billionaire hedge fund manager, and Kevin Warsh, the former governor of the U.S. Federal Reserve, also bought in.

    Basis co-founder and CEO Nader Al-Naji writes:

    “…we are building a cryptocurrency with an algorithmic central bank that we believe will make cryptocurrency stable and usable around the world.

    we believe the price volatility of cryptocurrencies is one of their biggest barriers to widespread adoption. Unlike the currencies we use today, most cryptocurrencies do not have a mechanism to keep purchasing power stable. This means that sporadic swings in demand can cause huge changes in price.

    This is bad. Imagine you’re paid a salary of 1 Bitcoin per month. If the price of Bitcoin drops, you might not be able to make rent. If it rises, your employer won’t be able to afford your salary. It’s simply not a reliable means of payment.

    A currency needs to be stable in order for people to use it. Central banks apply monetary policy to mitigate currency volatility. Until now, there’s been no way to create a cryptocurrency with comparable benefits. And no way for cryptocurrencies to become true currencies.”

    And so that is the approach that ‘Basis’ takes, attempting to keep prices stable by algorithmically adjusting supply… “like a central bank.” (White Paper here)

    When demand is rising, the blockchain will create more Basis. The expanded supply is designed to bring the Basis price back down.

    When demand is falling, the blockchain will buy back Basis. The contracted supply is designed to restore Basis price.

    The Basis protocol is designed to expand and contract supply similarly to the way central banks buy and sell fiscal debt to stabilize purchasing power. For this reason, we refer to Basis as having an algorithmic central bank.”

    Basis isn’t the only cryptocurrency startup that’s hoping to create a stable token that can be used to buy things – As BI reports, the controversial Tether, for example, bases its value on the US dollar, intended to keep the price steady. However, Basis believes that its focus on the developing world will help make it a key part of the financial system.

    But, as Bloomberg reports, Basis’s approach has drawn skepticism.

    Preston Byrne, a blockchain consultant, described the project, formerly known as Basecoin, as “the worst idea in cryptocurrency.”

    He argues that the startup over-promises on the potential and its implementation has little in common with a central bank.

    Of course, all these ‘elite’ investors in ‘Basis’ are hoping to make a quick (stable) buck just like all the unlucky punters in the latest Crypto startup – SaveDroid – whose investors are wondering whether the founder ran off with their money, the site has been hacked, or if it’s all part of an elaborate joke.

    As Bloomberg reports, a South Park meme with big, block letters saying “And It’s Gone,” was the only thing on the company’s website on Wednesday.

     

    While some investors held out hope that this was an elaborate (unfunny) joke… or that the website had been hacked, the founder, Yassin Hankir, tweeted a photo of himself at an airport, and then holding a beer on the beach, saying “Thanks guys! Over and Out…”

  • Social Media Now Being Used By Police And Intelligence Agencies To Collect Biometrics

    Authored by Nicholas West via ActivistPost.com,

    Amid the ongoing Facebook/Cambridge Analytica debacle over their general surveillance and misuse of users’ private data, there is an emerging trend that is infinitely more disturbing.

    The first story popped up in the UK yesterday where police admitted to using a photo sent through WhatsApp to cull fingerprints for evidence that successfully led to the conviction of 11 individuals for drug crimes.

    The story further revealed that this was not just a special-use case; apparently it is a technique that has been developed specifically to use the vast amount of public photos available to extract evidence from images that have been posted or transmitted online.

    As reported by Dawn Luger for The Daily Sheeple, this new technique is being rolled out and law enforcement is calling it “groundbreaking,” as it can pull information from even partial photos:

    It all started with a drug bust. The bust resulted in the police getting hold of a phone that had a WhatsApp message and image of ecstasy pills in a person’s palm. The message read: “For sale – Skype and Ikea-branded ecstasy pills…are you interested?”

    The phone was sent to South Wales Police where the photo showing the middle and bottom portion of a pinky was enhanced.

    […]

    “Despite being provided with only a very small section of the fingerprint which was visible in the photograph, the team were able to successfully identify the individual,” said Dave Thomas, forensic operations manager at the Scientific Support Unit.

    No specifics were actually given by the police department about this “pioneering fingerprint technique,” but it is quite clear that this is a tool they are ready and willing to use.

    Meanwhile, intrusions from Facebook are compounding in the wake of a massive lawsuit sparked by revelations that Facebook appears to be using facial recognition information for much more than just tagging people in your private social circle. The multi-billion dollar lawsuit was just given the go-ahead by an Illinois judge and illustrates the scope of what Facebook retains about people, how they are willing to distribute it, and the lack of safeguards against outside violations:

    The class of users approved by Donato dates back to June 2011, when Facebook had an Illinois user base of more than 6 million people, according to lawyers for the plaintiffs. “Although many individuals may not have had enough tagged photos to generate a face template in Facebook’s database, in January 2011 (i.e., before Facebook implemented tag suggestions for all users) the average user was tagged in 53 photos, far more than the 10 needed to generate a face template,” according to a December court filing.

    Privacy advocates have said the billions of images Facebook is thought to be collecting could be even more valuable to identity thieves than the names, addresses, and credit card numbers now targeted by hackers. While those types of information are mutable — even Social Security numbers can be changed — biometric data for retinas, fingerprints, hands, face geometry and blood samples are unique identifiers.

    (Source)

    And yet, it’s not only hackers and social media companies that have found this data to be irresistible. According to a new report in Forbes, former military intelligence operatives are also creating their own databases from publicly available biometric information.

    Forbes identified an Israeli company named Verint that is comprised of ex-spies who have created a service called Face-Int based off of harvested online biometrics. Moreover, their data collection system is one that almost assuredly will spread (if it hasn’t already) as they “have long been vendors for the U.S. government, providing bleeding-edge spy tech to the NSA, the U.S. Navy and countless other intelligence and security agencies.”

    Of course, the stated focus of the company’s activities are to pursue terrorists – the catch-all justification to introduce new surveillance technologies that just so happen to inevitably trickle down to mundane law enforcement sooner rather than later, as the UK case above clearly illustrates. Credit should be given to Forbes for acknowledging the reality behind this propaganda, as their article states (emphasis added):

    Though Terrogence (now Verint – Ed.) is primarily focused on helping intelligence agencies and law enforcement fight terrorism online, LinkedIn profiles of current and former employees indicate it’s also involved in other, more political endeavours. 

    One ex-staffer, in describing her role as a Terrogence analyst, said she’d “conducted public perception management operations on behalf of foreign and domestic governmental clients,” and used “open source intelligence practices and social media engineering methods to investigate political and social groups.” She was not reachable at the time of publication.

    Naturally, since none of the issues surrounding the use of our private online data for law enforcement applications was ever fully disclosed prior to rollout, we are now saddled with a pervasive real-time surveillance apparatus that harvests our information without consent. Moreover, this public-private info-grid is rapidly evolving as courts scramble to define exactly what the violations are and if the individual retains any right to privacy and constitutional protections in the Digital Age.  We are clearly picking up steam down the slippery slope as we are being converted from human beings into digital algorithms where our entire existence is just one click away.

  • Iran To Unveil New Missile Next Week

    As President Donald Trump decides whether to reauthorize the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which according to Israel’s Channel 10, Trump could very well abandon the agreement on May 12, Iranian authorities are taking no chances as the invitation to war increases with the West.

    Authorities in the country have just announced their latest round of new deterrence systems of advanced ballistic missiles and helicopter gunships, expected to debut in an upcoming military parade later this week.

    Iranian Army Airborne Commander General Yousef Qorbani revealed on Monday that the Islamic Republic is planning to showcase a new short-range missile named ‘Shafaq, during the country’s military parades on April 18, which he added the missile is a complete upgrade of an earlier version — with much longer range.

    “The range of the missile has doubled to fly 8 to 12km farther compared with the previous version and given the regional threats that we are facing, they can be highly effective in combats in short-range combat zones,” General Qorbani said on Fars News Agency.

    The unveiling of these new deterrence systems could greatly complicate continuing “efforts by the Trump administration and European allies to solidify a range of fixes to the landmark Iran nuclear deal that would crack down on Iran’s ongoing ballistic missile program and research into nuclear arms,” said The Washington Free Beacon.

    General Qorbani added that the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran are planning to unveil an “aerial parade of the Airborne units’ helicopters,” which are specifically equipped with a variety of armament subsystems, including rockets and machine guns for the use of combat in proxy and guerilla warfares. The General also said the country’s helicopters had been outfitted with night vision-systems for night operations.

    “Our dear experts in the air industry have had a highly successful performance and have equipped our helicopters with night-vision systems,” General Qorbani said.

    “We have also become fully indigenized in the field of long-range missile systems. Turning ground-based missiles to air-based missiles and enjoying the best fire-and-forget missiles are among other achievements of the Army Airborne Unit,” he added.

    General Qorbani further said Iran is one of the most advanced states in the region in developing “helicopters with the capability of fighting electronic warfare, targeting guided missiles, interception of targets from a distance and using cruise missiles,” as quoted by Fars News Agency.

    As the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran are in the process of modernizing their military with new deterrence systems ahead of the Trump administration’s decision whether or not to abandon the nuclear agreement; we ask a straightforward question: Is ending the Iran deal an open invitation to war?

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Today’s News 18th April 2018

  • Tech Firms Promise To Fight Back Against Government Spying

    In an announcement ostensibly meant to put Russian and Chinese hackers on notice – but we imagine is truly intended to reassure wary foreign customers that American cloud computing firms wont’ turn their data over to the NSA – 31 tech titans from around the world (but mostly the US) have signed on to a set of principles stipulating that they will not help any government – including the US deep state – mount cyberattacks or cyberespionage against “innocent civilians and enterprises from anywhere,” the New York Times reported.

    The publication of these principles follows a first-of-its-kind joint condemnation on Monday from American and British officials that placed the blame for nefarious cyberactivity squarely on Russia’s shoulders.

    Here’s Reuters:

    The Cybersecurity Tech Accord, which vows to protect all customers from attacks regardless of geopolitical or criminal motive, follows a year that witnessed an unprecedented level of destructive cyber attacks, including the global WannaCry worm and the devastating NotPetya attack.

    The principles are intended to be the cornerstone of an eventual “Geneva Convention for the Internet” that would strictly limit how governments can conduct cyberespionage and cyberwarfare.

    On Monday, American and British officials issued a first-of-its-kind joint warning about years of cyberattacks emanating from Russia, aimed not only at businesses and utilities but, in some cases, individuals and small enterprises. The warning was only the latest in a series about Russian threats to elections and electoral systems.

    But thanks to some of the documents stolen by former NSA contractor Edward Snowden, the public understands that the US is extremely guilty of browbeating tech firms into cooperating with its intelligence agencies, according to the New York Times.

    Perhaps as important, none of the signers come from the countries viewed as most responsible for what Brad Smith, Microsoft’s president, called in an interview “the devastating attacks of the past year.” Those came chiefly from Russia, North Korea, Iran and, to a lesser degree, China.

    ….

    The impetus for the effort came largely from Mr. Smith, who has been arguing for several years that the world needs a “digital Geneva Convention” that sets norms of behavior for cyberspace just as the Geneva Conventions set rules for the conduct of war in the physical world. Although there was some progress in setting basic norms of behavior in cyberspace through a United Nations-organized group of experts several years ago, the movement has since faltered.

    Mr. Smith said over the weekend that the first move needed to come from the American companies that often find themselves acting as the “first responders” when cyberattacks hit their customers. “This has become a much bigger problem, and I think what we have learned in the past few years is that we need to work together in much bigger ways,” Mr. Smith said in an interview. “We need to approach this in a principled way, and if we expect to get governments to do that, we have to start with some principles ourselves.”

    Microsoft played a central role in trying to extinguish the WannaCry attack last year that struck the British health care system and companies around the world. The Trump administration, along with several other Western governments, later blamed that attack on North Korea. Last summer the NotPetya attack struck Ukraine, crippling systems throughout the country. Iran is suspected in a recent attack on a Saudi petrochemical plant.

    Yet not all governments are likely to embrace the “Cybersecurity Tech Accord” in part because the principles it espouses can run headlong into their own, usually secret efforts to develop cyberweapons.

    According to Microsoft President Brad Smith, who led efforts to organize the alliance, several high-profile cyberattacks from 2017 demonstrated the need for the technology sector to “take a principled path toward more effective steps to work together and defend customers around the world,” per Reuters. Microsoft and – how’s this for irony? – Facebook are leading the project.

    While the accord promised to establish new formal and informal partnerships within the industry and with security researchers to share threats and coordinate vulnerability disclosures, several major US tech companies including Amazon, Apple, Alphabet and Twitter didn’t sign on. And for those that did, Reuters notes that “it was not clear whether any companies would change their existing policies as a result of joining the accord.”

    With this in mind, will the CTA ensure that US tech firms will do everything in their power to rebuff not only hackers but intelligence agencies like the CIA and NSA?

    Or is this essentially a marketing ploy for the US cloud-computing industry?

  • The Neocons' Real Plan For Syria Emerges From The Lack Of Rubble

    Authored by Tom Luongo,

    I told you over the weekend that Trump’s presidency was over.  As a practical matter it is.  His yielding to his ‘advisors’ on every foreign policy issue makes it clear that he can’t or won’t stand up to the relentless pressure to do what his instincts tell him.

    This morning’s article at the Deep State Washington Post paints a very clear picture of what the situation is.  The advisors whose loyalties are dubious run the show.  Their thinking has not evolved one whit from previous administrations.

    Remember what Russian President Vladimir Putin always says, “Presidents change. Policies do not.”

    Case in point they manipulated Trump into over-reacting to the Skripal poisoning by ousting 60 Russian diplomats, even though Trump clearly wanted to match Germany and France.

    The United States, they explained, would be ousting roughly the same number of Russians as its European allies — part of a coordinated move to punish Moscow for the poisoning of a former Russian spy and his daughter on British soil.

    “We’ll match their numbers,” Trump instructed, according to a senior administration official. “We’re not taking the lead. We’re matching.”

    The next day, when the expulsions were announced publicly, Trump erupted, officials said. To his shock and dismay, France and Germany were each expelling only four Russian officials — far fewer than the 60 his administration had decided on.

    You can almost see the evil glee on the part of the WaPo writer and Trump’s staffers who misled him into signing an order they knew he disagreed with.

    And this is why Trump is not president currently.  This is not the first time he’s been backed into a bad decision by the nest of vipers in his administration.

    And he won’t be until he removes the worst people from his cabinet.  Unfortunately, the trend on that front is definitely not our friend.

    Tillerson out. Pompeo promoted.  McMaster out (who was awful), John Bolton in (who is worse).

    So, now that the WaPo is writing victory lap articles for the the Deep State in neutering Trump, let’s talk about where this is headed in regards to this weekend’s attack on Syria.

    Target: Iran

    I’ll get right to the point.  This attack was all about the long-game of taking down Iran.

    Israel is desperate to prevent Iran from remaining in Syria after the war is over. And with good reason.  That’s the prime motivation for their actions.  But, on top of that is the need or the desire to always go farther, to take more than they should and use U.S. assets to achieve those goals which are in no one’s best interests, including Israel’s.

    Because despite the rhetoric spewing forth from Lil’ Miss AIPAC, Nikki Haley, a failed state in Syria is not good for Israel.  A beaten and cowed Russia is not good for the world.  And yet, that is exactly the policy that wing of the Trump administration is pushing him to pursue.

    Now, if they can’t get that because Gen. James Mattis isn’t a moron, then the next best thing is to prolong the war in Syria for as long as possible.  Why?

    To bleed Iran white.  To fight a war it can’t afford and keep its best military units and commanders bound down in Syria and not have them return home to help maintain order.

    Events in April are happening quickly.  First, Iran bans the use of dollars internally.  And, predictably, the Iranian Riyal blows up versus the dollar.  Second, the U.S. pushes for much stricter sanctions on both Russia and Iran.

    Iranians can’t get dollars and are, again, being cut off from international trade as sanctions create even more uncertainty on the ground there.

    At the same time, President Rouhani’s economic reforms are, at best, slow to improve things.  This was the source of the protests that rocked the nation in December, which U.S. and Saudi NGOs tried to fan into a revolution.  Russia is finding it harder to move money around internationally and the U.S. is putting massive pressure on Europe not to do business with Iran.

    However, the Italians blocked even stricter sanctions on Iran, so the revolt in Europe is gaining strength.  And that’s going to become a bigger part of this narrative as 2018 barrels ahead.

    The goal, of course, is to foment an overthrow of the current Iranian government through external pressure.  And Iran’s support of Syria is a pressure point in that campaign now.

    The Empire Strikes Back

    The U.S. claims this strike was to end Assad’s future use of chemical weapons, which the Russians say they have irrefutable proof didn’t even occur this time.

    That’s the story being sold to what’s left of Trump’s base, the MAGA-drones who can’t accept that he’s not actually running the country despite his public persona to the contrary.

    By prolonging the war you bleed out an already bleeding Iranian economy and treasury.  This is why, I think, the U.S. is hell-bent on staying in Syria even though Assad has, for all intents and purposes, won.

    The strikes from this weekend were intended to do much more damage than they did.  The U.S. Military’s presser on Friday after the attack was purposeful disinformation.  They only admitted to attacking three sites, all of which were empty and obliterated.

    But what about the airstrikes on no less than four Syrian airfields, including Al-Shairat (again)?

    No mention of those.

    Because they didn’t succeed.

    Now, certainly salt this report to taste but there is a major kernel of truth uncovered by it.  The U.S. intended to knock out a major portion of the Syrian Air Force with this strike and failed spectacularly.

    Assad’s air force has been one of the most effective parts of the war against the insurgents in Syria.  They are doing what the U.S. leadership says is their goal in Syria, to end the threat of ISIS.

    So, it makes less than zero sense for them to then attack Syrian air fields to show Assad it will not accept his using chemical weapons in doing so.

    Something doesn’t add up.  And, of course, we’ve known this from the beginning, but now the Russians and Syrians are providing proof of these inconsistencies if only the American people will engage with them.

    If the U.S. didn’t do this to just knock out Syria’s CW capability then it must have had a much, much larger goal.

    And that goal is Iran.

    War Without End

    The hope is that Syria will go on long enough and cost the Iranians enough that it will destabilize the country and force an overthrow of the Mullahs. 

    There comes a point where guns meet butter.

    This strategy is consistent with the thinking of the Neocon/Deep State trolls in charge at the White House.  It makes sense strategically to a guy like Mattis who knows Syria cannot become a truly failed state lest the entire region go off the rails, but at the same time wants a much different Iran.

    Putin and Xi will not play along with this and will move to strengthen Iran’s money situation through increased oil revenue.  The Saudis’ pushing this escalation behind the scenes will put them in a bind when China finally says, “Nope. Not paying for your oil with dollars anymore. In fact, we’re not buying oil from you period.”

    At that point the real chaos is unleashed.  Never forget that the Russians can withstand lower oil prices better than any producer.  China is the marginal buyer of Saudi oil and the Saudis are becoming less important to them by the day.

    Trump was forced to voice in his speech on Friday an overt plea to Putin to give up his alliance with China and Iran, abandon Syria and some of his transgressions will be forgiven.

    Trump didn’t believe those words anymore than I did, but watching him confirmed for me that he knows there will not be peace any time soon.  That he’s not up to the task of resisting the pressure.

    Just as I said this weekend to the dismay of many, including myself.  What it revealed was that no matter who wins, the world loses.

    *  *  *

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  • Chinese Stocks Slump To 2018 Lows As LatAm Markets Soar

    Authored by Steven Vannelli via Knowledge Leaders Capital blog,

    Last night the China Shanghai CSI 300 index fell a bit more than 1.6%, taking out February lows and setting a new YTD low for the index. This is important since the global equity markets have a very high correlation to Chinese stocks. In the chart below, I compare our KLSU Americas Index (top 85% of developed market cap, USD) to the China CSI 300 Index (in USD). With a correlation in excess of 80%, this suggests that Chinese stocks explain a little more than two-thirds of the movement in developed Americas stocks.

    The stats are similar if we compare Chinese stocks to developed Europe and Asia. Developed Asia is already at YTD lows, so this move in Chinese stocks may confirm a downside breakout.

    Turning to the emerging markets, there are a couple interesting divergences. In the chart below, I show our KLSU EM EMEA Index (top 85% of market cap, in USD) compared to Chinese stocks. While the correlation is bit lower, the trend seems to be the same, with stocks breaking down.

    Emerging Asia has by far the highest correlation to Chinese stocks, suggesting the moves in EM Asia are overwhelmingly dominated by the performance of Chinese stocks.

    Emerging Latin America is the real outlier here. Not only is the correlation the lowest among all DM/EM regions, our KLSU EM Americas Index is up over 7% YTD (in USD), making it the best performing region in the world equity markets.

    Perhaps the performance of Chinese and EM Americas stocks can be explained by the rise in oil prices. In the charts below, I show a few of the JP Morgan Government Bond Indexes of various Latin American countries (in USD). Performance is highly positively correlated to oil prices in Chile, Colombia and Brazil.

    All of this adds up to a growing preference for EM Americas stocks and bonds as oil prices march upward. For those that may not be able to access Latin American bonds directly, the Van Eck JP Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF (EMLC) could make sense.

    Today EMLC may make more sense than the iShares Bloomberg Barclays EM Local Bond ETF (EBND) because it has a much higher weighting to Latin American countries.

    The EBND also has a much higher weighting to Asian bonds, which brings us back to the observation that Asian stocks are making new lows while Latin American stocks and bonds are making new highs.

  • "Once Upon A Time; Long, Long Ago, Truth Was Important…"

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    I wonder how many people, not just Americans but those in other countries, have come to the conclusion that the United States today is a less free and less aware society than the societies in the dystopian novels of the 20th century or in movies such as The Matrix and V for Vendetta.

    Just as people in the dystopian novels had no idea of their real situation, few Americans do either.

    What are we to make of the extraordinary war crimes committed by the United States in the 21st century that have destroyed in whole or part seven countries, resulting in millions of dead, maimed, orphaned, and displaced peoples? Consider, for example, the latest Washington war crime, the illegal attack on Syria. Instead of protesting this illegality, the American media egged it on, cheering impending death and destruction.

    During the entirety of the 21st century, Israel, Washington’s only ally—as contrasted with the European, Canadian, Australian, and Japanese vassal states of Washington’s empire—has continued with Washington’s support, protection, and encouragement the genocide of the Palestinian people. Essentially, all that is left of Palestine is a ghetto concentration camp known as Gaza which is routinely bombed by Israel using weapons and money supplied by Washington. When a bombing of Gaza is announced, God’s Chosen People take their lawn chairs and picnics up on a hill overlooking Gaza and applaud as the Israeli military murders women and children. This is America’s only ally.

    The crimes committed by the US and Israel are horrific, but meet with little opposition. In contrast, an alleged attack in which 70 Syrians are alleged to have died sets in motion the wheels of war. It makes no sense whatsoever. Israel routinely bombs Syrian targets, killing Syrians, and the US arms and supports the “rebels” that the Obama regime sent to overthrow Assad, resulting in large numbers of dead Syrians. Why all of a sudden do 70 Syrians matter to Washington?

    According to the Washington authorities, or to the presstitutes’ reports of their statements, two or three alleged Syrian chemical weapons facilities were destroyed by Washington’s missile attack.

    Before…

    After…

    Think about this for a minute. If Washington bombed or sent missiles into chemical weapons facilities, a vast cloud of lethal gas would have been released. The civilian casualties would be many times higher than the claimed 70 victims of Assad’s alleged and unsubstantiated chemical attack used as the pretext for the Trump regime’s war crime against Syria. There is no evidence whatsoever of these casualties.

    Had there been casualties, Washington’s attack would obviously be a far greater crime than the chemical attack that Washington used as cover for its own crime. Yet the American presstitutes are crowing over the lesson that America has taught Syria and Russia. Apparently, the American media consists of such immoral or moronic hirelings that the presstitutes are unable to comprehend that an attack by Washington on Syrian chemical weapons plants, if such actually existed, is the equivalent of an attack on Syria with chemical weapons.

    As I wrote yesterday, when I was a Wall Street Journal editor, if Washington had just announced that it had bombed the chemical weapons facilities of another country in punishment for that country’s alleged use of a chemical weapon, the Journal’s reporters were sufficiently intelligent to ask where are the victims of Washington’s chemical attack on that country?

    Are there thousands of dead people from the chemical gas released by Washington’s attack? Are the hospitals of the country over-filed with the injured and dying?

    If a reporter had brought to us a story that was nothing but a Washington press release claiming obviously impossible happenings, we would have told him to go look again and ask the obvious questions. Today the NY Times and Washington Post put the unsubstantiated report on the front page.

    Today reporters no longer have to check sources, because there is no longer journalism in America. When the Clinton regime in compliance with the Deep State that made the Clintons super-rich permitted 90% of the independent and diverse US media to be concentrated in the hands of six political companies, that was the end of journalism in America. All we have now is a propaganda ministry that lies for a living. Anyone in American journalism who tells the truth is either immediately fired or in the case of Tucker Carlson at Fox News is set upon by outside presstitutes in an effort to force Fox to replace him. I wonder how long before some woman pops up and claims Tucker Carlson sexually harassed her.

    As far as I can tell, the United States is now a police state in which all information is controlled and the population is trained to believe the propaganda or be accused of lack of patriotism and consorting with terrorists and Russians.

  • And America's Richest Zip Code Is…

    The most exclusive zip code in America isn’t where you’d think it is.

    It’s not in Connecticut’s Fairfield County – famous for being a haven for old-money WASPs and, increasingly, America’ nouveau riche. It’s not Berkeley or Palo Alto or some other piece of the Bay Area, where economic inequality is among the worst in the country.

    Instead, it’s in South Florida, not far from Miami. The place is called Fisher Island, and with an average income of $2.5 millionbeating the second-richest zip code by $1 million – it’s the wealthiest zip code in the country, according to recently released IRS data that was reviewed and analyzed by Bloomberg. The study included more than 22,000 eligible zip codes.

    The average income in Fisher Island, zip code 33109, was $2.5 million in 2015, according to a Bloomberg analysis of 2015 Internal Revenue Service data. That’s $1 million more than the second-place spot, held by zip code 94027 in Silicon Valley, also known as the City of Atherton on the San Francisco Peninsula. The area’s neighbors include Stanford University and Menlo Park, home to Facebook and various tech companies. While the IRS data only provide the averages of tax returns, which can be skewed by outliers, Fisher Island is the only zip code in the Bloomberg analysis where more than half of all tax returns showed an income of over $200,000.

    Fisher Island stands out for several reasons. For example, not only is it the highest earning zip code in the US, but it’s also an outlier in Bloomberg’s list because nearly all the other top spots are occupied by zip codes in the Greater New York metro area or the Bay Area. It’s also notable for its thematic consistency.

    Fisher

    Typically high cost of living makes wealthy zip codes inaccessible to poorer individuals and families. But not only is this true of the zip code’s property values, it’s also true for another reason: Fisher Island is surrounded by water and it’s extremely difficult for outsiders to travel there.

    Chart

    Palm Beach (home of  President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club) and Naples were the only other two Florida zip codes that made the top 20. Meanwhile, certain suburbs of Seattle, Philadelphia, Chicago and Boston also ranked high on the list.

    Many of the taxpayers living on Fisher Island were able to carve out more in itemized deductions from their tax bill than most Americans can affthan Taxpayers on Fisher Island also managed to carve out an average of $448,100 in itemized deductions last spring when they were settling up with Uncle Sam.

    Still, Fisher Island’s deductions were smaller than the average deduction for high net worth individuals across the US – though BBG attributed this to the fact that Florida doesn’t have an income tax, so Fisher Island residents have less to deduct.

    The zip code that took the most advantage of tax deductions in 2015 was 94301 in Palo Alto, California, where the average deduction was $491,600. Fisher Island had smaller average deductions relative to its income size than other zip codes and that’s likely because Florida has no income tax, so its residents can’t take deductions from that category. On the other hand, California has a top marginal income tax rate of 13.3 percent, the highest in the country.

    But deductions for the very wealthy could look a lot different this year because of the new tax cut legislation, according to Falanga.

    Deductions for state and local income tax have been curtailed to a maximum of $10,000. Before the new legislation, these deductions were unlimited. Limits on charitable contribution deductions have increased to 60 percent of gross income from 50 percent. That is just for cash contributions and does not include foundations, stocks, or artwork, which have different hurdles, said Falanga.

    Of course, residents of wealthy zip codes across the US are about to take a financial hit from President Trump’s tax overhaul plan because many of these areas are situated in blue states with high local taxes. The Trump tax plan dramatically curtailed deductions for state and local taxes, imposing a cap of $10,000 when previously these deductions had been unlimited.

    But here’s another advantage for Fisher Island is it’s in reliably low-tax Florida.

    “I haven’t seen them change, but they have been curious about what’s going on,” Falanga said. “And to a certain extent, some of them will be paying more.”

    But one thing is for certain: Whatever the impact is, it will be much less impactful than it will be for residents of other tony enclaves like – for example – Greenwich, Conn., where the tax law and shifting tastes are creating some of the most adverse market conditions since the financial crisis.

    With that in mind, we wouldn’t be surprised to see an exodus of HNW snowbirds making the journey as a move to sunny Florida looks increasingly appealing by the day.

  • Employee Of Bombed Syrian Research Site Says No Chemicals Released Is Proof None Existed

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    An employee of the chemical research center which was bombed by the United States, the United Kingdom, and France says that no chemicals were released during the strike that leveled the building. 

    That’s incredibly important proof that no chemical weapons were actually there, he said.

    Said Said, an engineer at the Scientific Research Center facility, told RT Arabic that the very fact that no chemicals were released during the strike should serve as evidence that no chemical weapons program was run at the site.

     “You can see for yourself that nothing has happened. I’ve been here since 5:00 a.m. No signs of weapons-grade chemicals, he said.

    The researcher said he had worked at the facility for decades, and it used to develop medicine and household chemicals.

    Before…

    After…

    The West is alleging Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s leader used chemical weapons on civilians to justify military attacks on Damascus and Homs.  But interestingly enough, those strikes occurred the day before international investigators were scheduled to arrive to conduct a thorough inspection of the site. 

    The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) had visited the site several times and never found any traces of banned chemicals. Since Syria joined the Chemical Weapons Convention under a deal brokered by Russia and the US in 2013, the UN chemical watchdog repeatedly confirmed its full compliance with its obligations to dismantle and remove its chemical stockpiles. In June 2014, the OPCW declared Syria free of chemical weapons.

    On April 12, even US Secretary of Defense James Mattis told the House Armed Services Committee that the US government does not have any evidence that sarin or chlorine was used, that he was still looking for evidence. Yet the bombing happened anyway.

    We even provided them [OPCW] with a special place where they could collect and pack test samples taken during the inspection,” Said told RTThe inspectors would stay in the rooms on the upper floor and use the laboratory equipment, and the staff was cooperating with them completely.”

    Being a civilian research center, the staff did not believe it would be identified as the primary target for an attack. As we work in civilian pharmaceutical and chemical research, we did not expect that we would be hit, Said told AFP. The allegations that that Barzeh was an integral part of Syria’s chemical program were totally incorrect,” he stressed, speaking to CBS News.

    Reports by the UN’s chemical watchdog, the latest of which was filed just a month ago, suggest Said is correct, and there are no chemical weapons at the facility.  The report on the first inspection that was conducted between February 26  and March 5, 2017, says that “the inspection team did not observe any activities inconsistent with obligations under the Convention, noting that Damascus had provided unimpeded access to the inspectors “to all selected areas.”

    The follow-up inspection, carried out in November, did not find any incriminating evidence either. The March 2018 report reiterates: As stated in previous reports, all of the chemicals declared by the Syrian Arab Republic that were removed from its territory in 2014 have now been destroyed.”

  • The Death Of Retail Real Estate Continues: 77MM Sq.Ft Of Shopping Space Closed In 2018 Already

    Retail real estate carnage is going to continue this year with no signs of slowing up, as Bloomberg reported this morning that over 77 million square feet of retail real estate has closed this year and that 2018 will easily pass 2017’s record of 105 million square feet closed. The latest example was the fall of the once massive Toys ‘R’ Us name:

    The fall of the Toys “R” Us chain, with more than 700 U.S. stores, shows how much retail real estate has changed in just the last decade. When KKR & Co.Bain Capital, and Vornado Realty Trust took over the company in 2005, the buyers justified the $7.5 billion price, in part, because of the supposedly valuable properties that came with the deal.

    If there was ever to be any silver lining to the complete carnage in the retail real estate space, it was the argument that has been perpetuated over the last decade or so: despite retail stores closing, the real estate would eventually be worth something.

    This argument was made by real estate investment trusts as well as activist investors and analysts who tried to put a positive spin on the death of brick and mortar retail. Now, with more space freeing up, the bid under former retail property is at ask of falling off as supply is starting to get far ahead of demand:

    Real estate can put a floor under the value of a retailer and make it easier for the company to borrow. Maybe a particular store concept doesn’t work out as consumers’ tastes change, but in that case, investors can always sell the land and buildings to someone with a better plan. Long-term leases can be similarly valuable. But what if the problem isn’t that a particular store is out of fashion, but that consumers are just shopping less at brick-and-mortar retailers in general? As more storefronts empty, the valuation floor will look wobblier.

    This pace of closings puts 2018 on pace to pass 2017’s record of 105 million square feet of retail space closed:

    At last count, U.S. store closures announced this year reached a staggering 77 million square feet, according to data on national and regional chains compiled by CoStar Group Inc. That means retailers are well on their way to surpassing the record 105 million square feet announced for closure in all of 2017.

    It doesn’t look like the pace of these closings is going to slow anytime soon, either:

    And with shifts to internet shopping and retailer debt woes continuing, there’s no indication the shakeout will end anytime soon. “A huge amount of retail real estate in the U.S. is going to meet its demise,” says James Corl, managing director and head of real estate at private equity firm Siguler Guff & Co. Property owners will “try to re-let it as a gun range or a church—or it’s going to go back to being a cornfield.”

    So goes one set of stores, as go others. Despite the fact that the U.S. still has some of the most square footage of shopping space per person, there isn’t enough being spent at these locations to make them worth it:

    Even though retailers have been retreating for years, the country still has about 24 square feet of shopping space per person, many times more than any other developed nation, according to research firm Green Street Advisors. Consumers aren’t spending enough offline to support such a generous amount. Vacancies are headaches for landlords, of course, but they also have a mushrooming effect. People may steer clear of a mall that has lost an anchor tenant or has an abundance of “for lease” signs in smaller spaces. Deserted big-box stores, their facades naked and parking lots barren, can spread a sense of blight for blocks around. Who wants to open a business next to a place that’s gone out of business?


    The article finishes by pointing out that companies like Amazon and Whole Foods have still seen success using a brick-and-mortar retail concept. It’s possible that the space is simply just downsizing and becoming more efficient instead of disappearing entirely. Regardless, there seems to be a long runway to go in terms of retail real estate freeing up over the next couple of years. The trend of internet versus department stores also remains anything but encouraging. 

    And the outlook, with overlevered companies and lack of a serious bid under property prices, continues to look grim. Retailers are not going to be able to refi or recapitalize in ways necessary to try and grab onto lifelines. As the sector continues to collapse it’s going to be harder and harder to try and engineer turnarounds – this could lead to a self fulfilling prophecy of accelerating turmoil and collapse for the industry:

    But not every deserted retail property can be turned into a gym, theater, or boutique outlet of a tech company. That reality will weigh on any investor thinking about scooping up a struggling chain with real estate assets today—especially buyers in private equity, who borrow heavily to finance their deals. “Retailers cannot support large debt loads,” says Perry Mandarino, head of restructuring at B. Riley FBR, an investment bank that’s worked on retail liquidations. “Add to that the possibility of a decrease in the value of other collateral, such as real estate, and the successful execution of a retail-leveraged buyout may be almost impossible.”

    Almost a year ago to the day, we reported on retail closing setting up to hit a scorching pace in 2017. The narrative for 2018 stays the same, only worse. In early 2017 we pointed out the astonishing fact that “Barely a quarter into 2017, year-to-date retail store closings had already surpassed those of 2008.” 

    We asked in early 2017 if Amazon was assured of becoming the world’s first trillion-dollar stock, perhaps hitting the milestone even before Apple? Here is how the two names have fared since then:

    The race is on.

    Others have given up waiting for a recovery that seems always out of reach and are settling into what appears to be the new normal – but regardless, 2018 is setting up to, one again, break new ground in misery for retail real estate. 

  • 5 Fast Facts About The Federal Judge In Michael Cohen's Case (And Why Trump Should Be Worried)

    Submitted by Ann of The Political Insider

    Federal Judge Kimba Wood will be overseeing the court case against President Donald Trump’s personal lawyer, Michael Cohen. Here are five facts about Judge Wood – and why Trump should be very worried.

    1. She was President Bill Clinton’s pick for Attorney General in 1993

    President Bill Clinton nominated Wood to become the first female Attorney General. In fact, Wood was hand-picked by Hillary Clinton, who had been asked to submit a list of possible nominees for her husband’s consideration. However, Wood withdrew from the nomination after the White House learned about her brief time as a Playboy Bunny – and that she employed an illegal alien as a nanny. Further, Wood actually helped the nanny to illegally remain in the country by paying taxes for her.

    2. She trained as a Playboy Bunny

    The daughter of a U.S. Army career officer and speechwriter, Wood spent much of her childhood and young adulthood in Europe. While studying at the London School of Economics in the 1960s, she trained for a few days as a croupier at a Playboy Bunny casino, but quit because “she thought the gig was silly.” Nevertheless, the job would haunt her in her later career and played a role in costing her the position of Attorney General.

    3. She had an extramarital affair that earned her the nickname the “Love Judge”

    Wood might be a judge, but her personal past indicates that her moral scruples are lacking. In 1995 at the age of 51, Wood began an affair with married multimillionaire Wall Street financier Frank Richardson. The affair was uncovered by Richardson’s wife when she found passionate passages written about Wood in Richardson’s diary. The tryst earned Wood the nickname the “Love Judge” during Richardson’s divorce trial. Wood married Richardson in 1999.

    4. She officiated George Soros’s wedding

    Wood officiated the 2013 wedding of notorious liberal billionaire George Soros. At the time, Soros was 83 and his bride, Tamiko Bolton, was 42. Numerous prominent liberals attended the wedding, including House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and then-California Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsome. In lieu of wedding gifts, the couple asked that donations be made to several organizations including Planned Parenthood and Global Witness, an environmental activist group.

    5. She doesn’t believe in attorney-client privilege

    During Cohen’s hearing on Monday, Wood forced Cohen to expose the identity of a previously unnamed client. That client turned out to be none other than Fox News host Sean Hannity, who maintains that he only asked Cohen for legal advice as a friend and never retained or paid him for any legal services.

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    As many people have pointed out, you couldn’t make this stuff up if you tried.

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    Has the deep state ever been more obvious than it is now?

  • Mattis Wanted Congressional Approval Before Syria Strike, Was Overruled By Trump

    Confirming our report from Friday, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis favored a more cautious approach to the Syria situation but was overruled by President Trump as well as other notable neocons interested in an immediate strike – including brand new National Security Advisor John Bolton, administration officials told the New York Times.

    Mr. Mattis pushed to get congressional authorization, according to people with knowledge of the internal debate. In several White House meetings last week, he underscored the importance of linking military operations to public support — a view Mr. Mattis has long held.

    Mr. Trump, the officials said, wanted to be seen as backing up a series of bellicose tweets with action, but was warned that an overly aggressive response risked sparking a wider war with Russia.

    Friday night’s limited strikes on three targets, which lasted under two minutes, were the compromise. –NYT

    Bolton and Mattis were said to be duking it out over the Syria strikes on Friday – with Mattis and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dunford reportedly “concerned with managing escalation and preventing blowback on US troops,” while John Bolton is known for getting very excited at the prospect of a good ole’ fashioned regime change

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    In the end, Mattis prevailed in limiting the Friday night strikes to three targets which would avoid hitting Russian troops stationed at various military facilities throughout Syria. Democratically elected Syrian President Bashar al Assad moved fighter jets to said installations before the US-led strike, which also included the participation of the United Kingdom and France to give it an air of legitimacy.

    Administration officials say that Trump wanted to hit Syria hard enough to appear aggressive, but not so hard that it would prompt Russia to engage in combat.

    “The combined American, British and French response to these atrocities will integrate all instruments of our national power — military, economic and diplomatic,” said Trump in a national address while the strikes were underway. “We are prepared to sustain this response until the Syrian regime stops its use of prohibited chemical agents.”

    That said, the Pentagon said no more strikes are in the works. “This is a one-time shot,” Mattis said on Friday after the attack was launched, suggesting that the airstrikes were “a very strong message to dissuade” President Bashar al-Assad of Syria from using chemical weapons against his own people.

    He just wants the big show,” said Obama Admin assistant Secretary of Defense, Derek Chollet. “So Mattis was probably pushing on an open door.” More from the NYT:

    Mr. Mattis is particularly concerned about overextending the American military in Syria. He does not want the United States to veer from its stated policy of focusing only on the fight in Syria against the Islamic State — and avoid delving into the country’s seven-year civil war.

    Russian forces and Iranian militias have helped Mr. Assad remain in power against Syrian opposition fighters who accuse him of a brutal siege against the country.

    “The strike was really just enough to cover the president politically, but not enough to spark a war with the Russians,” said two-tour Iraq war veteran Jon Soltz, chairman of liberal veterans group VoteVets. “It was clear the military had tight constraints on the operation, and that everybody in the military seemed to know that except the president.”

    As the New York Times points out, Mattis is down one major ally in the West Wing with the departure of former NatSec Advisor H.R. McMaster, who would routinely defer to the Defense Secretary – a retired four-star Marine general. Enter John Bolton – a war hawk and notorious neoconservative who never saw a middle eastern nation he didn’t want to bomb – for the most part. Mattis greeted Bolton for the first time by asking him if he was in fact the “devil incarnate.”

    Mr. Mattis is widely viewed by global leaders as the strongest and perhaps most credible voice on foreign policy in an administration that has been rocked by firings and resignations among senior presidential advisers. The recent exits of both General McMaster and Rex W. Tillerson as secretary of state has focused more attention on Mr. Mattis’s role in the cabinet. –NYT

    On Tuesday, Mattis publicly disputed claims that last weekend’s limited strikes amounted to little more than a fireworks show.

    “The French, the United Kingdom, the United States, allies, all NATO allies, we worked together to maintain the prohibition on the use of chemical weapons,” Mr. Mattis said at the Pentagon. “We did what we believe was right under international law, under our nation’s laws.”

    And I hope that this time, the Assad regime got the message,” said Mattis.

    Based on images of Syrians dancing in the street after the weaker than expected airstrikes… 

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    … and protesting the US-led strikes in Damascus right now, and the fact that the cleanup crew at the destroyed Barzah chemical weapons Research facility didn’t need protective clothing to sift through the rubble, the message is loud and clear; the West needs to get it’s act together before bombing a sovereign nation based on crappy – or even worse, fabricated intel.

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Today’s News 17th April 2018

  • Stoltenberg Brushes Off Greece-Turkey Tensions: "Not An Issue For NATO"

    In the last two months, tensions between two NATO member states have escalated dramaticallyTurkey has threatened to invade Greek islands, Greece has responded, and Greeks now see Turkey as the greatest threat to their existence.

    But, the rapidly souring tensions between Greece and Turkey are “not an issue for NATO,” the General Secretary of the North Atlantic Alliance, Jens Stoltenberg in an interview with Turkish news agency Anadolu.

    As Keep Talking Greece reports, saying that both countries are “two highly valued NATO allies” Stoltenberg hailed the telephone conversation between Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and Turkish counterpart, Binali Yildirim, after the Mirage 2000 crashed and the pilot was killed on Thursday when returning form a mission to intercept Turkish F-16s violating Greek airspace.

    ‘Tension in Aegean should be resolved between Turkey, Greece’

    Q: The tension between Turkey and Greece over the Aegean Sea continues to rise. There are reports that Greece has officially asked NATO to take a more active role in this context. What is NATO’s position on the rising tension between the two NATO allies?

    Stoltenberg: Greece and Turkey are two highly valued NATO allies, they have been allies since 1952.

    Both contribute to our collective defense. I expect that the differences we see on some issues are solved between Turkey and Greece in the spirit of good relations. In this context, I welcome that the PMs of both countries have recently held a phone conversation and that they have agreed to resolve these differences through dialogue. 

    Q: So, NATO does not foresee involvement?

    Stoltenberg: No, it’s not an issue for NATO, this is something that has to be addressed between Turkey and Greece. 

    Commenting on a wide range of issues including the agenda of his visit, the Turkish-led Operation Olive Branch, the fight against terrorism, and Syria, Stoltenberg emphasized the importance of Turkey as a valuable strategic ally.

    The interview was given ahead of Stoltenberg’s visit to Turkey on May 16th.

    No surprise here. No comment. Members need only to contribute to the NATO, while the Alliance sits back and makes plans for the safety of the whole planet…

  • The Grand Troika: A Chance For A World New Order

    Authored by Matthew Jamison via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    Back in the late summer of 2017 I wrote an analysis of the state of world affairs and international relations after two seismic geopolitical world events occurred almost simultaneously in 2016the UK Referendum result to Leave the European Union and the defeat of Democrat Hillary Clinton by Republican Donald Trump for the White House in the US 2016 Presidential Election. Those twin political events were like major earth shaking bombs going off creating all kinds of disturbances and tremors, aftershocks and creating the greatest of shock and bewilderment within the international political order that had held sway since the defeat of Nazism in 1945. 

    It had become clear to me by the summer of 2017, as I had thought for some time, that politics in Britain – and global geostrategic politics within the broader historical framework of civilizational and human development – had changed profoundly and significantly from were we had been during the 1990s-2012 period, perhaps even from where I started off life in the most intense but ending days of the Cold War in the mid 1980s.

    The UK EU Referendum result and the election of Donald Trump and rejection of Hillary Clinton have simply brought into focus that the world has indeed entered what many international relations experts have been discussing for sometime, the era of extreme global tension, so intense and great that it could trigger World War III. The state of international affairs and the tension within the international system along with the upheavals in the post-WWII 1945 international geopolitical, economic and security architecture have created the environment where misunderstandings and differences can now lead to profound policy implications for foreign affairs, international peace and stability and the course of human history.

    The world has now become what Europe was like on the eve of the outbreak of the World War I.

    A new Cold War has begun, as I wrote back in the summer of 2012, it started some time ago. I placed the point at around 2012. For the great historian Michael Burleigh in his excellent work “The Best of Times. The Worst of Times,” a review of the current now in world affairs, it is around 2011-2013. For Burleigh it is not so much a Cold War more a transition phase of historical proportions on a civilizational scale. The most disturbing matter of all is that this new Cold War could be more deadly than the last. Yet it does not need to be like this and a Cold War mentality must be rejected of seeing Power Politics as the ultimate beneficiary of a State on State zero-sum game based on rampant mass national psychological manipulation and control. The International Community can yet avoid slipping back into a Cold War mentality even if it has now slipped into a new era of international relations, a 2012 New World Order.

    This 2012 New World Order signifies the ending of the period of sole American superpower unipolarity after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The American unipolar moment has come definitely to an end in terms of its sheer unilateral ability to carry out enterprises such as the 2003 Iraq invasion or the preceding invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 combined with the damage wrought by the Wall St Global Financial Crisis of 2008. There has been a tremendous power shift to the East, most notably in economic and financial power, and of all the emerging economies and new mini-regional powers in the area, the most important of these and the most salient to the changes under way in this Great Global Transition, is one of the greatest countries and civilisation in human history, China.

    The fundamental transformation in communications and information which the internet and social media has introduced into the public realm has completely upended the traditional process for Governmental policy making, diplomacy and political campaigning as well as the media and business and leadership in general.

    Technology is creating a virtual reality cyberspace world of enhanced globalisation but greater atomised individualism while inequality in the West is rampant as is social decay and breakdown alongside a serious problem in the Western Anglo-American democratic electoral model which seemed to prevail in 1989 and in general a deeper moral malaise of existential nihilism.

    A global struggle for power is occurring on many levels. This is due to the breakdown of the global balance of power that has held sway since the end of World War II and the brief interlude of the 1990s. In my article in August 2017 I discussed the remoulding of President Trump around the traditional military-industrial complex with his penchant for military Generals. I also stated that the more liberal “West Wing” Democrats seemed to be in the ascent with the removal of Mr. Steve Bannon. The National Security Council seemed to be in better hands under HR McMaster while Rex Tillerson was showing some promise at the State Department but had already started to exhibit worrying trends.

    That is the inclination in some parts of the American foreign and defence policy National Security Establishment to view this new era of international relations, this 2012 New World Order, as a period of Superpower Rivalry and Great Power competition. Nothing could be more destabilising and dangerous for the future peaceful and prosperous development of the planet through this Great Transition than following such a policy course and setting the United States on such a global posture. There is nothing preordained that the United States cannot remain the number one economy on the planet during President Trump’s tenure and beyond for quite some time.

    And even if China were to start to economically advance well above the United States in the decades ahead, America would still be pretty much number one in terms of overall assets. Besides that is a long way off and the planet is big enough for two powerhouse economies on planetary super scales. While China has transformed itself the likes of which has not been seen in human history and is on course to once again play a unique, special and critical role in world affairs as a Superpower, which it has been many times before throughout history, it is still a developing nation with all the challenges that a country of 1.3 billion people possess. It has no great wish to usurp the United States as the global policeman and Leader of the International Order. There is great potential for a deep and creative comprehensive and truly lasting partnership based on mutual admiration, mutual respect and mutual collaboration and trust between Washington DC and Beijing which together could be of enormous benefit for the development of humanity in peace and harmony. The work on North Korea which China has undertaken is a fine case in point of Chinese diplomacy contributing to the greater global good.

    Over the course of the last few months President Trump has remade his administration again and with a new National Security Advisor John Bolton. It was very wise to get rid of Secretary Tillerson and also to reign in the Obama/Clinton pro-German wing of the State Department and US National Security community by replacing McMaster. However Bolton is an extreme American nationalist hawk and allied with the neoconservative movement which portends for some significant and serious ramifications for the making and influencing of American foreign policy going forward.

    The changes in the domestic personnel have also seen a shift which is worrying with the more moderate Goldman Sachs type of Gary Cohn who was the President’s Director of the White House National Economic Council is gone. Instead the administration seems to be flirting with the Office of the Trade Representative Peter Navarro’s ludicrous ideas for a Trade War with China which would be totally counter-productive and extremely damaging to the international order at this fragile and extremely vulnerable time, not to mention hurt America a great deal and the Republican Party in the midterm Congressional elections. There is no need for this and a return o protectionism such as that of the 1920s and 1930s could lead to the rise of a new form of extreme totalitarianism in power. Hopefully calm will prevail on this issue of major global significance. President Trump’s new pick for Director of the CIA, the first woman to serve in the role, Gina Haspel looks also a very astute and good pick. 

    In this post-2012 New World Order the Asia-Pacific is a crucial theatre of strategic significance. As is Eurasia comprising the European Union, the UK and the Russian Federation. The Atlantic arena containing the United States and Canada is heavily integrated and connected through the Western Atlantic NATO Alliance with Europe and also the European Union. It had been my great hope, one of the highest of the incoming Trump administration, to see a successful, truly successful and enduring reset in relations between the United States of America and Russia in a final positive dynamic post-1991 based on mutual admiration, mutual trust and mutual cooperation in vital global national security interests such as combating the danger posed by the spread of violent and ideological jihadist Islamic fundamentalism and nuclear security. With Europe remaking itself due to the crisis over Britain’s departure from the EU it seemed to be a propitious time to be imaginative. However nothing involving America, Europe and Russia is ever going to be suitable in terms of time. 

    It is pointless for two big and great strong countries like America and Russia not to have a positive and constructive dialogue and even partnership for the benefit of common interests. President Obama wanted to reset relations and have a good dynamic with Moscow as did President George W. Bush and President Clinton. It never really worked out and now the hopes of the Trump Presidency have nearly evaporated. US-Russian diplomatic relations and the bilateral US-Russia relationship are at their lowest and worst stage since the darkest days of the Cold War. I am shocked and mortified at the speed and deep deterioration in relations between Washington DC and Moscow since I wrote the last article on this subject back in August.

    I am greatly disturbed at the speed and strength which the relationship seems to have nearly collapsed and the negative turn it has taken. I am very surprised at this turn of events as I had hoped the one bright spot of the Trump administration might be President Trump getting along better with President Vladimir Putin and utilising that relationship to get a better American-Russian and hence Global strategic accommodation for the Great Transition going forward in world affairs. Russia is a great country and deserves a new relationship with the West, especially a new and more vibrant respectful and harmonious relationship with America. A warm relationship.

    The Russian people and Russia itself deserves a great deal more respect than how it has been treated and spoken of late. So the actions of the British Government of Theresa May regarding the stage managed and appallingly planned spiteful anti-Russian bigoted so-called Skripal poisoning affair in Salisbury, England has been a deeply shameful and irresponsible act of madness on the part of an increasingly irrelevant, trivial and useless Prime Minister badly damaged and leading a country in the midst of a collective Brexit nervous breakdown in no way fit for the duties of a serious responsible national actor on the global stage.

    In this new era of international relations in the post-2012 New World Order, a more respectful and constructive understanding and approach is required to take account of Russia and Russian interests, legitimate security and defence political interests which were trampled on at the end of the previous Cold War. Russia is and will be a key power in the 2012 New World Order and together the Leaders of America, China and Russia can form a special strategic troika of global leadership to enhance global security, understanding, stability and development. Thus it would be in the best interest of the United States and the world for the Trump administration not to intervene militarily in the Syrian civil war or if it really must keep it as limited and surgical as possible. The chemical weapons attacks over the last seven years have and are barbaric and beyond the conscience of humanity and civilised values but this war has been raging for seven years now and it will not be brought to an end with a belated American military intervention.

    Furthermore, the British Government has known for some time that chemical weapons attacks were ongoing in Syria despite the 2013 autumn diplomatic breakthrough for their disposal. Why now is this such an urgent matter to be resolved when the British Government has known about it for over three and a half years? Such a time may have existed early in 2011 but President Obama chose not to intervene overtly militarily thus allowing a vacuum which Islamic State filled. Russia in many respects had no choice but to side with its only remaining Middle Eastern ally and listening post. Furthermore, after the disastrous US-UK interventions in the region in Iraq and then Libya not to mention the still continuing catastrophic war in Afghanistan the growth of al Qaeda/ISIS posed a clear and growing threat to Moscow and the region and world as a whole. The chemical weapons attacks are truly nightmarish but there should be no rush to judgement in a war just as the situation was measured in the autumn of 2013 before a intervention was proposed. The best course would be to let the Russians continue to exercise their influence over Assad and allow for a end to the conflict with a peace process instigated. Both Russia and Israel should team up to manage and contain the situation in Syria while the United States would be best advised not get itself dragged into and bogged down in another war in a Middle Eastern Arab Muslim country.

    Yet the stakes are even higher than that. It would not just be a conflict fought against the Assad regime. The truly appalling nature of this crisis is that it could potentially lead to all-out war between America and Russia which would in all likelihood lead to a Third World War. That situation is inconceivable and it is deeply distressing that we have even arrived at that point in 2018 after only 27 years of the USSR officially having been dissolved. If a war breaks out between America and Russia there will not be much of the planet left for anyone to enjoy in the years to come.

    That is what is most alarming about the growth of the anti-Russian xenophobia and hysteria in the UK fuelled by the right wing Tory Government of Theresa May and the near total collapse in US-Russian relations.

    How could we have arrived at this situation in the international community and global system in 2018 where after the End of History there is a serious and distinct geopolitical possibility of a real hot war between America and Russia over a proxy battle in Syria.?

    How has the international political system become so tense and volatile that such a scenario after all the events of 1945-89 has emerged again and this time perhaps in an even more deadly form?

    Russia is not the source of all evil on the Earth and to believe so is not only deeply offensive but completely mad.

    As President Trump said when asked regarding President Putin: ‘We have a lot of killers. What you think our country is so innocent?’ Greater dialogue and understanding is needed to bring Washington DC and Moscow back together and ensure between President Xi, President Putin and President Trump a Troika of Statesman Leadership that can steer the world through its current choppy waters. A role of constructive partnership can be found for Russia with America and China. A solid, suitable and worthy role befitting of a great nation like Russia. There are so many opportunities and challenges to face as a world this century and together the capitals of Washington DC, Beijing and Moscow can be a Grand Alliance for good on the planet in the early 21st century.

  • "They Know What's Going To Happen" – Governments, Big Banks Are Stockpiling Gold

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    The writing is on the wall and major financial institutions across the world are warning about the economic disaster to come. Unabated money printing, tariff trade wars, rising interest rates and retail slowdowns point to one result, and it’s going to be brutal.

    Big banks and governments know what’s coming and they are preparing for this eventuality by stockpiling huge amounts of “real money” ahead of the crisis.

    According to Keith Neumeyer, the CEO of the world’s top primary silver producer First Majestic Silver and chairman of First Mining Gold, the cartels he’s previously reported to the CFTC have continued to manipulate the prices of precious metals while loading up their own vaults with gold and silver. The answer to why they’re doing it is simple, as Neumeyer highlights in a recent interview with SGT Report:

    The verdict is still out on whether we’re going into a dis-inflationary or inflationary environment… gold can do well in both environments… the fact of the matter is governments are printing extraordinary amounts of fiat currencies and that is not going to change…

    The stage is set for higher gold prices due to the amount of money being printed… I am of the belief a major reset is coming where the governments of the world will need to get rid of their debt by fixing everything to the price of gold… and that’s why governments like China and Russia and other governments around the world are accumulating gold… it’s because they know what’s going to happen over the next several years…

    (Watch at Youtube)

    If it is true [that JP Morgan has acquired the largest position of physical silver in the world] then it’s pretty amazing… Any bank wanting a long position like that is doing it for a reason… 

    Banks like JP Morgan… they haven’t had a losing trade in multiple years… if they’re long something that’s probably what you want to be buying.

    Neumeyer explains that not only are there monetary factors at play, but also supply issues, as production, especially in silver, has dropped markedly over the last several years.

    All of this bodes well for rising precious metals prices going forward, with reasonable estimates for future growth far exceeding the all-time highs we saw in recent years:

    Metals are in an extremely tight trading range… This base the metals are building right now is three years in the making… and when the metals finally take off this year it’s going to be astounding to watch.

    … We lived through it in 2010 and 2011… a good mining stock will far exceed the movement of the metal itself… a stock like First Mining would absolutely explode in an environment like that… it’s hard to predict the exact prices that stocks would do but it would be quite different than it is today…

     I think $2000 or $3000 gold… these are reasonable numbers that we will experience in the not too distant future. 

    Financial analysts and large institutions have generally avoided gold and silver for nearly a decade. But the tide appears to be changing.

    As prices remain suppressed, government are acquiring, big banks are acquiring and even Morgan Stanley recently noted that gold can be used as a “very good proxy of the true value of a dollar over long periods of time.”

    We know economic collapse on a massive scale is approaching.

    To get an idea of where one should be diversifying their assets in the event this worst-case scenario plays out, one need only ask the following question: What is money when the system collapses?

    5,000 years of history for the single most reliable monetary asset class of last resort has already given us the answer. 

    Prepare accordingly.

  • "I Want To Set The Record Straight": Hannity Expains His Relationship With Michael Cohen

    With most of the media in a feeding frenzy after judge Kimba Wood – the same judge who 5 years ago married the 83-year-old George Soros to 42-year-old Tamiko Bolton…

    Georges Soros married Tamiko Bolton; Judge Kimba Wood officiated the non-denominational ceremony

    … unveiled that Michael Cohen’s “third client” is Sean Hannity, questions swirled over potential conflicts of interest, and whether Hannity had an obligation to disclose his relationship to Cohen, whom he defended on his show on more than one occasion.

    As we observed earlier, Hannity justified his silence on the matter claiming Cohen never represented him “in any matter involving a third party”, had never “retained  [Cohen’s] services” and had occasionally “asked Mr Cohen questions concerning the law that Mr Cohen indicated would be privileged.”  This however prompted more questions, the top two being i) whether asking your lawyer “some legal questions” and saying “attorney/client privilege” makes you their client and, ii) why was Cohen’s team so reluctant to reveal Hannity’s name in the hearing, and why the secrecy?

    Earlier on Monday, even attorney and frequent Fox News guest Alan Dershowitz Sean Hannity criticized host Sean Hannity for not disclosing his relationship with Cohen during his frequent discussions about Cohen in recent weeks.
    Dershowitz, a defender of Trump amid his legal woes, was brought on to discuss former FBI Director James Comey’s Sunday night interview on ABC News, but first addressed the Monday revelation that Hannity is the previously unnamed client of Cohen. “I really think you should have disclosed your relationship with Cohen,” Dershowitz said, calling it a “complicated situation.”

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    So to answer all of this, in his show on Monday night Hannity addressed the Cohen situation for the second time as follows.

    Michael Cohen never represented me in any legal manner. I never retained his services, I never received an invoice. I never paid Michael Cohen for legal fees. I did have occasional brief conversations with Michael Cohen, he’s a great attorney, about legal questions I had or I was looking for input or perspective.

    “My discussions with Michael Cohen never rose to any level that I needed to tell anyone that I was asking him questions. And to be absolutely clear: they never involved any matter, any – sorry to disappoint so many – matter between me, a third party, a third group, at all. My questions focused almost exclusively on real estate. I said many times on my radio show ‘I hate the stock market, I prefer real estate.’ Michael knows real estate.

    “So in response to all the wild speculation, I want to set the record straight here tonight. I never asked Michael Cohen to bring this proceeding on my behalf. I have no personal interest in this legal matter. That’s all there is, nothing more.”

    To be sure, if Hannity is lying – and with both the FBI and NSA now in possession of all Cohen docs – we will know momentarily, or as soon as the leak to the NYT/WaPo hits, at which point Hannity’s future at Fox News will be no more. On the other, if indeed as Hannity claims “there is no there, there”, maybe Trump will be right, and “attorney-client” privilege is indeed dead, in which case perhaps judge Wood who officiated the wedding of the the lovely couple in the photo above, in which the bride is exactly half the age of the groom, can disclose just what the nature of their relationship is.

    PS. the following brief blurb on Judge Kimba Wood is certainly interesting:

    In 1993 President Bill Clinton nominated her to become the first female Attorney General. But she withdrew from the nomination after the White House learned she had hired an undocumented immigrant as a baby-sitter.

    Wood, who was Clinton’s second choice for AG post, didn’t break the law employing the nanny and in fact paid the woman’s taxes. But the White House asked her to withdraw because her situation was similar to Clinton’s first AG nomination, Zoe Baird.

    Baird bowed out of consideration for the job after she drew criticism for employing two undocumented immigrants as housekeepers.

     

     

  • Only 0.04% Of Taxpayers Are Reporting Any Bitcoin Gains To The IRS

    With the US tax deadline just one day away, crypto investors who traded actively during the market’s run-up and inevitable meltdown should have a lot of activity to report to the IRS.

    But according to a survey conducted by Credit Karma, only a handful of people who have filed their taxes using Credit Karma’s tools have reported bitcoin holdings or holdings of some other cryptocurrency – fewer than 100 out of a total of 250,000 filers, or a whopping 0.04% in total.

    Bitcoin

    In all likelihood, this means that (tens of) thousands of bitcoin traders are refusing to pay the IRS, either betting on the anonymity of the blockchain to conceal their identities, or perhaps in some cases they simply don’t have the money to pay, having lost most of their profits during the market’s spectacular meltdown, as was the case for one anonymous trader who complained on Reddit that he owed the IRS $50,000 that he didn’t have, according to CNBC.

    “If I had to guess, there’s probably a lot of underreporting,” said Elizabeth Crouse, a Seattle-based partner at law firm K&L Gates. “Most of the people in the cryptocurrency world tend to have a pretty high risk tolerance.”

    Bitcoin had its best week in four months last week as selling pressure that appeared to coincide with the US tax season appeared to dissipate.

    Meanwhile, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee and other analysts have predicted that “a massive outflow” of cryptocurrency to fiat ahead of tax day in the US had created a massive overhang, and that the bitcoin price could shoot higher after tax day.

    In a report last week, Lee noted that, since US households owe an estimated $25 bln in capital gains taxes due to their crypto holdings, and crypto exchanges also will owe income taxes, both households and exchanges will be selling their crypto to pay the US government:

    “We believe there is selling pressure by crypto exchanges who are subject to income tax in U.S. jurisdictions. Many exchanges have net income in 2017 [of more than] $1 bln and keep working capital in [Bitcoin]/[Ethereum], not USD — hence, to meet these tax liabilities, are selling BTC/ETH.”

    While it’s possible that crypto traders just aren’t using Credit Karma for whatever reason, the data should be a concerning sign for Lee and other crypto bulls. It means that the forced selling might not be over – and in fact could be just getting started – as nonreporters are hunted down by the IRS.

    In the past, crypto traders have mostly ignored warnings and guidance about reporting crypto-related gains. Of course, traders who ignore the IRS do so at their own peril. They could be subject to fines or other penalties once the federal government learns their identities. But as one might suspect given their high risk tolerance, like Crouse mentioned above, some crypto traders might be crazy enough to mix it.

  • China Macro Data Disappoints As MOFCOM Threatens Retaliation For ZTE Ban

    With the yuan at its strongest since devaluing in 2015…

    and lunar new year distortions starting to wash out of the macro-surprise data… (Monthly data for January and February are often plagued by shifts in the lunar new year holidays in China. For today’s March numbers, we should really be past that — although last week’s trade numbers still had a surprise impact.)

    Tonight’s smorgasbord of Chinese economic data is the first glimpse of the state of the economy as the credit impulse slipped negative and the crackdown on shadow banking (and implicitly leverage) began.

     

    Commodities are leading the China bubble for now, with bonds and stocks having been bubbled-through…

    And China stocks (red) are notably underperforming their Asia-Pac peers (green)…

     

    So, the markets need some hope to cling to and so we strongly doubt GDP will be allowed to miss. Bloomberg notes that the backdrop to today’s data is that China is broadly expected to slow somewhat this year, after last year it saw the first acceleration in growth since 2010, when China — and the rest of the world — was bouncing back from the global recession.

    • China Q1 GDP YoY MEET at 6.8%, versus +6.8% exp. and +6.8% prior.

    • China Retail Sales YoY BEAT at 10.1%, versus +9.7% exp. and +9.4% prior.

    • China Industrial Production YoY MISS at 6.0%, versus +6.3% exp. and +6.2% prior.

    • China Fixed Asset Investment YoY MISS at 7.5%, versus +7.7% exp. and +7.9% prior.

    Notably, China Q1 GDP QoQ disappointed however, rising only 1.4% QoQ (versus expectations of a 1.5% QoQ jump…

    So the initial sign is some softening in the industrial part of the economy, and strong growth in the consumer side.

    This one will disappoint President Trump: Steel production still growing…

    • First Quarter Crude Steel Output Rises 5.4% to 212.15M Tons

    • March Crude Steel Output Rises 4.5% Y/Y to 73.98M Mt

    • March Steel Product Output Rises 4.2% to 89.77M Tons

    Bloomberg’s Chris Anstey notes that on the softening in industrial-output growth, Goldman Sachs economists had warned that weather conditions in March weren’t favorable for reducing pollution — so authorities probably put more restrictions on production, construction, and transportation.

    Additionally, a new indicator – the monthly survey-based urban unemployment rate will be introduced today, providing a reading on China’s labor market.

    The NBS may start publishing China’s monthly surveyed unemployment rate (SUR) very soon. The government has long been in a dilemma: cares much about employment but lacked an effective gauge. SUR, we believe, is necessary for guiding the economic transition toward high-quality growth. Compiled according to international standards, the SUR defines the unemployed (the numerator) as people of working age (above 16) who are out of work, want a job, have actively sought work in the previous three months and are available to start work within the next two weeks.

    Meanwhile, the Hong Kong Dollar remains glued to its peg band’s lower limit with HKMA intervention not helping for now…

    The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has bought a total of HK$19.02b ($2.4b) worth of Hong Kong dollars since the currency fell to the weak end of its trading band last week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. This includes HK$9.36b of purchases in the past 24 hours. No need to proactively adjust the local dollar’s interest rates, as that would easily lead to doubts over the city’s determination in defending the linked exchange rate, HKMA says in an emailed statement.

    But, despite this statement (raising rates would counter the USD Libor carry trade flows), when  former Hong Kong Monetary Authority Chief Executive Joseph Yam said there IS room for Hong Kong to adjust interest rates and additional exchange fund bill sales can be an option, the dollar strengthened

     

    Finally, it appears the trade wars are anything but fading as China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on its website that China has noticed U.S. Commerce Department’s export restriction on ZTE, and will take necessary measures to protect Chinese companies’ interests.

    Trading of ZTE shares in Hong Kong suspended from 9am pending release of inside information announcement on the activation of denial order by U.S., it says in filing to Hong Kong stock exchange.

    The statement went on to note that ZTE has cooperated with hundreds of U.S. companies and has contributed tens of thousands of jobs in the U.S.; and China hopes U.S. to fairly deal with the matter based on rules and regulations, and ensure fair, stable environment for company.

  • Mapping Where The 13 Million Displaced Syrians Are

    While the stock market seems to believe the worst is over, one-and-done-and-everyone-crawls-back-in-their-hole, we suspect the ordeal that the Syrian people are dealing with is far from over and could lead to an even greater spike in the number of displaced Syrians, 13 million of whom are now scattered all over the world.

    That’s according to a Pew Research Center analysis published in January. Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes that Pew’s analysis found that over 6 million Syrians are displaced within their own country and they account for 49 percent of all Syrians displaced worldwide.

    Infographic: Nearly 13 Million Syrians Are Displaced  | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Turkey has the second highest population with 3.4 million displaced people currently living there.

    Another million of them have made the long and dangerous journey to Europe. Germany hosts most of them with 530,000, followed by Sweden with 110,000. Another 54,000 Syrians live in Canada while 33,000 are in the United States.

  • What Hyperinflation In Venezuela Really Looks Like

    Authored by J.G.Martinez D. via Daisy Luther’s Organic Prepper blog,

    The intention of this article will be to describe how the prices went wild, and what you could expect in a hyperinflation scenario. Perhaps softer, or perhaps worse, that is not possible to know for an amateur like me, not being an economist. But something similar to this is what could be expected in the real world, not in some hypothetical scenario of the theoretical economy..

    For some reason that I will try to elucidate afterward, the salaries stopped being useful for buying anything other than food. The prices I will publish in our national currency, the Bolivar already were rounded by taking 3 zeroes by Uncle Hugo´s command. A few days ago, this was done…again, now by command of the bus driver, in an attempt to make the hyperinflation look less threatening. Go figure.

    One Bolivar is worth 0.000020 USD. The minimum wage is $5.21 or 1.800.000 Bs for a month. Now, how could we expect someone to live under these conditions? It is entirely unexplainable to me that this has not generated massive riots…yet.

    Here are the hyperinflation costs of basic items in Venezuela

    Remember, many people are paid only 1.800.000 Bs for a month:

    • Vegetable oil 900ml. Bottle: 748.367 Bs
    • Cereal mixture for milkshakes: 900Grs can: 1.057.057 Bs
    • Wheat flour, 1 kg: 398.750 Bs
    • Cheese, 1 kg:  2.160.950 Bs (yes, TWO MILLION)
    • Chicken and Bacon: 2.299.500 Bs
    • 395Grs Condensed milk w/sugar: 566.144 Bs
    • Oatmeal 400 Grs:  550.000 Bs
    • 1 kg. Margarine: 747.000 Bs
    • 1Kg Chocolate mixture for milkshakes: 2.060.000 Bs
    • Cheese (melted-for spreading) 300 Grs: 1.097.230 Bs
    • Black Olives 235Grs: 1.677.120 Bs
    • Ladies deodorant: 890.000 Bs
    • Insecticide 1 can: 900.000 Bs
    • Mayonnaise 910 Grs.: 955.000 Bs
    • 2 toilet paper rolls: 399.974 Bs
    • 1 Kg. avocados: 500.000 Bs
    • 30 Eggs: 650.000 Bs.
    • Dog food, dry, bulk 20Kg: 6.060.000 Bs
    • Dishwashing soap, cream 500 Grs: 440.000 Bs
    • 2 door fridge: 627.900.000 Bs (yes, six hundred MILLION)
    • 400ML. Shampoo:  2.052.050 Bs (2 million)
    • 4 small ice cream cups: 2.072.691 Bs
    • Rice 500 Grs: 115.277 Bs
    • TV 65 inches: 329.999.990 Bs
    • 2Lt soda: 298.000 Bs
    • Lemon Juice, 500ml bottle: 731.881 Bs
    • Light bulb, power saving: 935.000 Bs
    • Shoes: 5.986.825 Bs
    • Catfish: 465.300 Bs
    • Sweet corn 400Grs: 466.480 Bs
    • Ground meat: 1.150.000 Bs.
    • Steak: 1.300.000 Bs (depending on the region, usually cheaper in cattle-producing states)
    • Pork chops: over 1.000.000 Bs
    • Corn flour, 1 kg: 265.000 Bs.
    • Dollar price: 350.000 Bs / 1 USD

    How people are reacting

    One of the most amazing things I have seen is that people are in total denial, and they refuse to accept that the money is not worth even the paper it is printed on. They won’t innovate changing to cryptos easily, nor will they accept silver coins, much less other precious metals. They won’t barter, they won’t trade their labor time (I mean major cities, in my small town things are a little different). We had a good supply of silver coins in the 60s, but that changed.

    They talk and talk, complaining about the government, but they just don’t do anything. I have seen some small plots in our subdivision with tomatoes plants and other vegetables, but that is just a salad for one lunch. And the people passing by will take whatever is within their hand’s reach.

    The electronic money has been devaluated much more than cash. Something with a price in cash, if you try to pay with debit card or money transfer via internet the price will be 2 or 3 times the cash price. Illegal? Yes, it is. But there is no way to control it.

    The main problem arises because it is the military taking over the supply chain. They have an agreement with the gangs, and they deviate the production of the plants that are under military control, to the street sales. The gangs are armed, and they protect the retail sellers from thieves and turmoil. This is in the most populated cities, where the money is, and therefore the products don’t make it so often up to the smaller towns.

    The black market offers of tires, food, car spares, engine oil, and all kind of medicines and goods are rampant, and the social networks are full of resellers. You may expect a morality crisis, in parallel with this economical crisis. I asked a granny how much was charging for some hand towels she had for sale, and I did not have enough money in my pocket to buy even one towel…I apologized but saw she was upset. It was a sad, awkward moment indeed.

    Senior citizens are taking a beating. Their pension is not enough for one week worth of food. Jeez, maybe once this is published it will be not enough even for a couple of days…the clowns that tried to sell the “petro” just realized that this snake oil did not work.  The calculated inflation is 13.000%. Without money from the IMF, having paid the debt, and kicked them out of the country…the disaster arrived anyway. The government just does not want to do what they have to do. There are too many military personnel involved in the black market and an uprising is more than possible that will launch the gangs in power off to the ground if some of them are disturbed.

    How people survive

    To find a medium of exchange, and at the same time capable of holding its value until you actually need to exchange it is not easy. Cigarettes, chocolates, all kind of commodities have been used, and there is a small but growing trade with this stuff. Not at the dimensions one would imagine, but generally speaking, the financial culture in our society is almost unknown. There is no such thing as a stock exchange (but there was one, in the past), and whatever other things that smell like the free market, the gov carefully removed. People clamor for “price control” without even realizing that it is not the price but the lack of production what is starving them.

    I have known some people that even received satoshis as a medium of payment for food or car parts. However, as the BTC has been going down these last weeks and the amount of satoshis to receive is calculated based on the USD price, this trading has been slowing down.

    As I have mentioned, the country is already collapsed. Those self-employed that could adjust their fees for their service from one day to another, and that could receive, say, a bag of sugar for their valuable services are those who are not overly stressed to leave the country. This is one of the most important lessons, I think. Someone with manual, valuable skills, that could provide basic goods or services, will be able to survive. They will just adjust their prices…and if the customer can´t pay, then most likely they will trade in their service for something to barter. People with low maintenance trucks,  that have received meat as payment in a farm for transporting a load of hay (many farmers have to buy hay down here in the dry season because they don´t have the machines to compact it and there is no rain for the pastures to grow). They exchange the remaining meat for cheese, poultry, and fish. Or the electrician like my dad got paid with half a pork for one day of work at his friend´s farm rewiring an old corn mill. He took the excess as a gift to one of my cousins, and got back 6 kgs of pasta, and 2 of sugar.

    This is how we, in the small community I was born and raised and my family is lucky to live yet, are dealing with the criminals that have imposed the crisis. These are the places where people support each other because we know everyone since we were small kids. We grew up together, went to school, and celebrate birthdays, Christmas, Mardi Gras together. We cried when our elders were gone, all together. I have found people from my hometown in the opposite side of the country that I did not remember, and they had gone to basic school with me, and after a few anecdotes, we were laughing and shaking hands. This is the kind of community that will struggle but will survive.

    The other ones?. The big city dwellers?…

    The hardworking father of three, with a minimum wage, is starving, and watching their family starve too. Some of them quit their jobs and started a life of crime. Other ones leave their families behind and don’t come back. Other have been kind enough to tell their families that they will be in this or that country, and never appear again.

    Many have committed suicide.

    Elders do it because they don’t want to be a burden nor an additional weight for their family.

    Youngers because they don’t see themselves in such apocalyptical scenario. Normal stuff in other countries like buying a car, a house, having children, graduating from college, seem to be impossible tasks, no matter how hard you work for that.

    The official rate of suicides is not something that can be trusted. The gang that claims to be a government is covering up even the starvation deaths of the children in the hospitals, in an attempt to avoid further international sanctioning.

    They are forcing doctors to fake the cause of the deaths in the reports.

    And this, ladies and gentlemen, is what hyperinflation and a collapsed country looks like.

    May God bless us and protects us all.

    Note: Thanks for your generosity, to those who have contributed to get my family out, and those who will assist us in the future.

  • Russia Reveals Who "Staged" Syria Gas Attack, As US Claims Moscow "May Have Tampered" With Site

    The Russian envoy to the chemical weapons watchdog group, OPCW, said that non-governmental organizations (NGOs) funded by the UK and US carried out the April 7 chemical attack in the Damascus, Syria suburb of Douma.

    Russia’s permanent representative to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), Alexander Shulgin, said Russia has irrefutable evidence that there was no chemical weapons incident in Douma.

    “Therefore, we have not just a “high degree of confidence,” as our Western partners claim, but we have incontrovertible evidence that there was no incident on April 7 in Douma and that all this was a planned provocation by the British intelligence services, probably, with the participation of their senior allies from Washington with the aim of misleading the international community and justifying aggression against Syria,” he stated. –Sputnik

    Shulgin added that the US, UK and France are not interested in conducting an objective investigation of the attack site. “They put the blame on the Syrian authorities in advance, without even waiting for the OPCW mission to begin to establish the possible facts of the use of chemical weapons in Syria,” he said.

    The nine-member OPCW mission people has yet to deploy to the city of Douma according to the organization’s Chief, citing pending security issues.

    “The Team has not yet deployed to Douma. The Syrian and the Russian officials who participated in the preparatory meetings in Damascus have informed the FFM Team that there were still pending security issues to be worked out before any deployment could take place. In the meantime the Team was offered by the Syrian authorities that they could interview 22 witnesses who could be brought to Damascus,” OPCW Director-General Ahmet Uzumcu said as quoted by the organization.

    The Russian Envoy says that the controversial “White Helmets” were one of the anti-Assad “pseudo-humanitarian NGOs” which staged the event. As Disobedient Media and others have reported, the White Helmets are funded in large part by the United States.

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    “The Syrian Civil Defense Force (aka the White Helmets) is funded in part by United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Included here are two links showing contracts awarded by USAID to Chemonics International Inc. (DBA Chemonics). The first award was in the sum of $111.2 million and has a Period of Performance (POP) from January 2013 to June 2017. It states that the purpose of the award will be to use the funds for managing a “quick-response mechanism supporting activities that pursue a peaceful transition to a democratic and stable Syria.” The second was in the sum of $57.4 million and has a POP from August 2015 to August 2020. This award was designated to be used in the “Syria Regional Program II” which is a part of the Support Which Implements Fast Transitions IV (SWIFT IV) program.” Via Disobedient Media

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    Moscow says they have confirmed that “these structures [NGOs] on a fee-based basis cooperate with the governments of the United States, the UK and some other countries.”

    Russian experts who conducted the verification of reports on the use of chemical weapons in the Syrian city of the Douma, found participants of video filming, presented as evidence of the supposedly occurring chemotherapy, according to the Russian Envoy to OPCW. –Sputnik

    “Everything has been developing according to the script that was prepared in Washington. There is no doubt that Americans are playing the ‘first violin’ in all of this. The United States, the United Kingdom, France and some other countries after the “fake” addition from the White Helmets and their ilk in Douma, immediately pounced upon the Syrian authorities with accusations,” Shulgin said.

    Meanwhile, the U.S. has alerted the OPCW that Russia “may have tampered” with the chemical attack site in Douma

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    “It is our understanding the Russians may have visited the attack site,” U.S. Ambassador Kenneth Ward said at a meeting of the OPCW in The Hague on Monday.

    It is our concern that they may have tampered with it with the intent of thwarting the efforts of the OPCW Fact-Finding Mission to conduct an effective investigation,” he said. His comments at the closed-door meeting were obtained by Reuters.

    Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov shot back in a BBC interview, saying “I can guarantee that Russia has not tampered with the site.”

    Earlier, Britain’s delegation to the OPCW accused Russia and the Syrian government of preventing the international watchdog’s inspectors from reaching Douma.

    The inspectors aim to collect samples, interview witnesses and document evidence to determine whether banned toxic munitions were used, although they are not permitted to assign blame for the attack. –Reuters

    “Unfettered access is essential,” the British delegation said in a statement. “Russia and Syria must cooperate.”

    Moscow says the OPCW delay is due to the Western air strikes. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the British accusation that Russia was to blame for holding up the inspections was “groundless”.

    “We called for an objective investigation. This was at the very beginning after this information [of the attack] appeared. Therefore allegations of this towards Russia are groundless,” Peskov said.

    ***

    On Friday we reported that Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said that Moscow has “irrefutable evidence” that the attack – which allegedly killed over 40 people, was staged with the help of a foreign secret service.

    We have irrefutable evidence that this was another staged event, and that the secret services of a certain state that is now at the forefront of a Russophobic campaign was involved in this staged event,” he said during a press conference according to AFP.

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    According to defense ministry spokesman, Major General Igor Konashenkov, the Kremlin has evidence that Britain was behind the attack.

    Quoted by Reuters, he said: “We have… evidence that proves Britain was directly involved in organising this provocation.”

    As RT further adds, the Russian Defense Ministry presented what it says is “proof that the reported chemical weapons attack in Syria was staged.” It also accused the British government of pressuring the perpetrators to speed up the “provocation.” During a briefing on Friday, the ministry showed interviews with two people, who, it said, are medical professionals working in the only hospital operating in Douma, a town near the Syrian capital, Damascus.

    During a briefing on Friday, the ministry showed interviews with two people, who, it said, are medical professionals working in the only hospital operating in Douma, a town near the Syrian capital, Damascus.

    During a briefing on Friday, the ministry showed interviews with two people, who, it said, are medical professionals working in the only hospital operating in Douma, a town near the Syrian capital, Damascus.

    In the interviews released to the media, the two men reported how footage was shot of people dousing each other with water and treating children, which was claimed to show the aftermath of the April 7 chemical weapons attack. The patients shown in the video suffered from smoke poisoning and the water was poured on them by their relatives after a false claim that chemical weapons were used, the ministry said.

    “Please, notice. These people do not hide their names. These are not some faceless claims on the social media by anonymous activists. They took part in taking that footage,” said Konashenkov.

    “The Russian Defense Ministry also has evidence that Britain had a direct involvement in arranging this provocation in Eastern Ghouta,” the general added, referring to the neighborhood of which Douma is part. “We know for certain that between April 3 and April 6 the so-called White Helmets were seriously pressured from London to speed up the provocation that they were preparing.”

    According to Konashenkov, the group, which was a primary source of photos and footage of the purported chemical attack, was informed of a large-scale artillery attack on Damascus planned by the Islamist group Army of Islam, which controlled Douma at the time. The White Helmets were ordered to arrange the provocation after retaliatory strikes by the Syrian government forces, which the shelling was certain to lead to, he said.

    The UK rejected the accusations, with British UN Ambassador Karen Pierce calling them “grotesque,” “a blatant lie” and “the worst piece of fake news we’ve yet seen from the Russian propaganda machine.”

    So when will Moscow release their evidence for the whole world to see? Or is it maybe waiting for the US to first release its own proof that Assad launched the attack?

    If so, we’ll be waiting for a long time.

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Today’s News 16th April 2018

  • US Tanks In Europe Get Invisible Futuristic Missile Shield To Counter Russian Threat

    Back in March, we detailed how the United States Army M1 Abrams tank, an American third-generation main battle tank, was in the process of being upgraded with an invisible missile shield that will destroy all chemical energy anti-tank threats and other threats before reaching the vehicle. We even said, “that Washington is preparing their main battle tank for the next evolution of hybrid wars.”

    Known as Trophy, this is the world’s first and only fully operational Active Protection System and Hostile Fire Detection System for armored vehicles. This cutting-edge technology will provide M1 Abrams tanks with 360-degree security from all threats, as advanced algorithms are continually detecting, locating, and neutralizing anti-tank threats on the battlefield.

    We even noted that the Trophy system was tested thoroughly on select M1A2 tanks in Europe and the Middle East. With much of the testing classified, there were still several unanswered questions surrounding what region(s) of the world the upgrades would go.

    However, in a new report on Thursday, the United States Army has decided to deploy the missile shields for M1 Abrams tanks to Europe “as part of a sweeping effort to better arm its Armored Brigade Combat Teams and counter Russian threats in the region,” said Warrior Maven, as quoted by Fox News. 

    “Not only will we be fielding one set of Trophy on Abrams tanks to Europe, but also three other brigades,” Maj. Gen. John Ferrari, Director, Program Analysis and Evaluation, G-8, told Warrior Maven in an interview.

    “The weapons plus-up for Europe-bound Active Protection System is woven into the 2019 budget request,” he added.

    The Trophy system employs advanced algorithms that use radar to provide continuous 360-degree protection. The bolt on kit includes four antennas and two rotating launchers mounted on the turret of each tank (see below).

    Once the threat is discovered, the algorithm classifies the threat, and if a direct hit is calculated, the countermeasure systems are automatically activated, and a tight pattern of explosively shaped penetrators launches at the warhead to neutralize the threat (as shown below).

    Rafael Advanced Defense Systems says the Trophy system has been thoroughly tested, qualified, and is already in production for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). The system debuted in 2009 and had proven to work exceptionally well in the Gaza Strip and other hot spots around Israel.

    Warrior Maven points out that the immediate deployment of Trophy systems for American tanks in Europe is to counter new high-tech Russian technology, which has been deployed to the European Russia border.

    “Trophy is the kind of armored vehicle ground-war weapon of particular value in the event of a major land combat engagement against a fortified, well-armed adversary such as Russia. Systems of this kind have been in development for many years, however the rapid technological progress of enemy tank rounds, missiles and RPGs is leading the Army to more rapidly deploy Active Protection System for its fleet of Abrams tanks deploying to Europe.”

    Warrior Maven also describes the Pentagon’s biggest fear:

    “APS on Abrams tanks, quite naturally, is the kind of protective technology which could help US Army tanks in tank-on-tank mechanized warfare against near-peer adversary tanks, such as a high-tech Russian T-14 Armata tank.

    The 48-ton modern T-14 tank is widely reported to be able to reach speeds of 90-kilometers per hour; it is built with an unmanned turret, without a “fume extractor” and is designed for a 3-man crew surrounded by an armored capsule

    While much has been made of the T-14 Armata’s cutting-edge technology, including its active protection, 12-round per minute firing range and 125mm smoothbore cannon in numerous public reports and assessments, it is not at all clear that the T-14 in any way fully outmatches current and future variants of the Abrams tank.

    Army Abrams modernization efforts are without question being designed to meet and exceed any dangers posed by rival nation tanks, including the T-14. Concerns about the threat posed by the T-14 Armata are, without question, informing US tank and weapons developers.”

    Essentially, Washington’s much-needed modernization efforts of invisible force fields, are to protect M1 Abrams from Russian anti-tank weapons and its new high-tech T-14 Armata, all evidence suggests — a major conflict could soon be on the horizon.  

  • Draining The Data Swamp: Who Owns The "Virtual You"?

    Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times,

    In our digital age, ownership, utilization, and monetization of data raises profound questions about personal rights, state rights and the limits of freedom…

    For all the raft of unanswered questions or dismissal as a nothingburger, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s two-day grilling at Capitol Hill hopefully may unleash a serious global debate about our virtual selves.

    US politicians, it seems, have discovered the merits of the European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation  (GDPR). The EU is actually at war with the GAFA galaxy (Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon) and environs. The question for the US revolves around the immense legal twists and turns on how and what to regulate.

    As much as Zuckerberg may have conceded that the industry needs to be regulated, scores of congressmen pressed him on whether Facebook would enforce GDPR for US customers. He dodged the question multiple times, promising GDPR “controls,” but never “protection.”

    An army of savvy lawyers at the Facebook HQ certainly envisaged that regulation might “stifle competition,” as some congressmen did not fail to point out. And some, naively, even gave the whole game away, asking Zuckerberg directly what kind of regulation he would prefer.

    Capitol Hill may not have noticed that Facebook and GAFA as a whole work pretty much like political parties disguised as companies. The founders/CEOs are major shareholders. Decisions have the imprimatur of a board working as a sort of political bureau. Congress is the shareholder general assembly. And the militants are the salaried mass addicted to a visionary movement.

    The whole process runs in parallel with the decline of traditional political parties. Even top counseling comes from the political arena, like former Obama operative David Plouffe, who moved to Facebook from Uber, and Joel Benenson, Bill Clinton’s top polls specialist.

    And it’s certainly very much a political issue how cyberspace trumps actual physical space. GAFA is always looking for nations that offer comparative advantages and privileges to dodge regulation and annoying redistributive fiscal obligations.

    That betrays a clear ideological choice. GAFA is all about Ayn Rand-inspired Libertarianism; minimum government and maximum freedom. Surf away from the crashing waves of the state. Regulation is for losers.

    Ayn Rand happens to be the supreme idol of PayPal’s Peter Thiel, Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey and Wikipedia co-creator Jimmy Wales.

    And then there’s philosophy great Martin Heidegger.

    Peter Thiel, Linkedin founder Reid Hoffman, Instagram inventor Mike Krieger – they all followed the Symbolic Systems program established in Stanford in 1986 combining neurosciences, logic, psychology, AI, cybernetics and, yes, philosophy, with an emphasis on Heidegger.

    Add to it the role of Pluralistic Networks, founded by Chilean Fernando Flores, a former minister of Salvador Allende and co-author, with Terry Winograd (Google’s Larry Page’s mentor) of a book about Heidegger’s influence on information science, redefining intelligence, language and the limits of biology. Here we have Heidegger as the precursor of AI.

    Liberal democracy vs freedom?

    One of the big shows in Brussels for years has been the debate on why GAFA refuses to pay taxes. Libertarianism is incompatible with direct tax deductions or regulations. What matters most of all is the philanthropic value of those entrepreneurs and their social importance in creating jobs.

    European egalitarian cynics, on the other hand, would describe them as a bunch of moguls bloated by un-measurable hubris praying to a doctrine of sovereign egotism.

    GAFA + Microsoft’s market capitalization reached a whopping $2.9 trillion last year – bigger than India’s GDP; their collected revenues are larger than Sweden’s GDP.

    According to the OECD, globally, states are not collecting as much as  $240 billion a year in taxes. According to a 2015 report from the European Parliament, the EU loses as much as 70 billion euros a year because of “fiscal optimization,” due uniquely to the transfer of GAFA profits towards fiscal paradises.

    So what we have is GAFA working as political parties, actively changing the world without ever submitting themselves to a vote. It’s a case of “freedom” being incompatible with Western liberal democracy. That’s exactly what PayPal founder Peter Thiel wrote in 2009; “I no longer believe that freedom and democracy are compatible.”

    In The Black Box Society (Harvard University Press), Frank Pasquale stresses how the industry, facing no accountability, will end up risking the very own legitimacy of sovereign states.

    Which brings us to the monopoly question. Zuckerberg was asked if he considered Facebook a monopoly. Brussels certainly does, in its drive to regulate an economic model based on systematic smashing of competition and limitless privatization of personal data (which the EU has been unable to stop). Once again Peter Thiel, one of Facebook’s earliest investors: “Competition is for losers.”

    The main complaint in Brussels, as officials stressed to Asia Times, is that the EU’s “fair competition” model is being corroded. Yet the paradox is the EU – because of ferocious fiscal competition – is actually the largest tax paradise on the planet.

    The EU condemns international tax evasion while the enemy inside is represented by Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Ireland – a sort of Bermuda Triangle of corporate tax. The savory combination of a single free market and a sophisticated service economy in which almost no physical goods cross borders offers unlimited opportunities for tax evasion. No wonder the digital giants have accumulated over $600 billion in tax-free profits.

    The limits of ‘self-ownership’

    While GAFA in the US essentially controls the politics limiting the capacity for regulation, Brussels will continue to insist the only path towards healthy regulation comes from the EU.

    The other model is of course China. Beijing has domesticated its sprawling digital industry – which is a de facto extension of the state apparatus as well as a growing instrument of global influence.

    When Zuckerberg was asked whether Facebook should be broken up – the monopoly issue once again – he said that would weaken the US’s competitive advantage against China, which by the way is fast disappearing.

    Facebook’s customer base though is not American; it’s global. Inside the Facebook HQ, the consensus is that it is a global company. So all these issues at stake – from monopoly to regulation to privacy – are indeed global issues.

    Zuckerberg dodged extremely serious questions. Who owns “the virtual you?” Zuckerberg’s response was that you own all the “content” you upload, and can delete that content any time you want. Yet the heart of the matter is the advertising profile Facebook builds on each user. That simply cannot be deleted. And the user cannot alter it in any way.

    The GAFA galaxy, in fact, owns you when you click accepting those massive terms and conditions of use. As argued by philosopher Gaspard Koenig, director of the GenerationLibre think tank in France, data property should logically follow the evolution of property rights, land property, financial property and property of ideas, thus replacing the current figure of the “proletarian 2.0” at the heart of the value chain of the digital economy.

    The whole debate may revolve in fact about algorithmic determinism. Every algorithmic model is influenced by economic and financial interests. “Our” data is de facto monetized by all those massive, user-friendly platforms. The four billion profiles generated every three months by Facebook are derived from content that real people produce and let Facebook use. Even Zuckerberg himself admitted he cannot lock down his own privacy settings.

    Thus the key question that Libertarianism refuses to answer: If “self-ownership” is being configured as the future of our social contract in a secular world, how do we mere consumers profit from our rampant, digital marketization?

  • US Syria Strategy "A Succession Of Failures Divorced From Reality"

    American involvement in Syria – “from Obama through Trump” – was described to Axios by a Republican foreign policy expert as “a succession of failures divorced from reality.” 

    The expert, which Axios says wishes to remain anonymous but “has decades of experience analyzing the region,” emailed his devastating indictment of the U.S. Syria “strategy” over several administrations – noting “The inevitable result was failure.” 

    Presented below are said expert’s thoughts: 

    • Syria is a microcosm of U.S. foreign policy in general. We never had a coherent strategy beyond simplistic generalities, childishly selecting our goals based on what we wanted, not what was necessary, or even possible. The inevitable result was failure. Wobbly Assad won, powerful us lost. Rust-bucket Russia accomplished its goals, triumphant us achieved none.”

    • The Obama Administration bears the principal responsibility for Syria and Libya but not for Iraq and Afghanistan or the succession of failures elsewhere. Timid intervention did not work for the former; full-scale intervention did not work for the latter. “

    • But the military are not miracle-workers. These failures sprang from cobbled-together strategies based on comforting illusions that have repeatedly proven not to be true, with objectives shaped not by the constraints of reality but the indulgent selection from an a la carte menu. There is little evidence that repeated failure has had a significant impact on policymakers or specialists.”

    • There is a price to be paid for incompetence. Few now fear us; fewer respect us. As our opponents increase in number and strength, the prospect of defeat at their hands will grow. But the more immediate result will be irrelevance.”

    Ouch! No wonder this mystery foreign policy expert wishes to remain anonymous. This is a sobering take.

  • How Much Longer Can The American Empire Run On Fake Money?

    Excerpted from Jay Taylor’s Gold & Energy Stocks Newsletter:

    Gold rocketed to nearly $1,365 on Wednesday in New York, which is well above the $1,350 that Michael Oliver suggests is when technical price watchers will finally start to head into the yellow metal and related investments like gold stocks. But alas the banking cartel had other ideas and exercised a 100-tonne “pretend gold” smackdown in the gold paper futures markets starting at about noon that day, just to make sure the greatest competition in the world to the dollar didn’t start to lead to a loss of confidence.

    This of course is nothing new. The Gold Anti Trust Action Committee (GATA) has been documenting paper market manipulation of the gold markets now for decades. Isn’t it interesting that more virtual gold trades in one day on the LBMA than is mined in an entire year.

    Whatever it takes, including endless wars to try to keep the petrodollar alive and trillions of dollars spent on blood and treasury. I truly believe Eisenhower’s fears of the endless power of the Military Industrial Complex are now playing out.

    It should be eminently clear now that “the President is not really the President of the United States.”

    That was established by the “Deep State” under Kennedy. If you have doubts about that, you might do well to read “Unlike Trump, Kennedy never bent a knee,” by Jacob G. Hornberger, the founder of The Future of Freedom Foundation and a former trial attorney in Texas.

    While another war or two might buy a bit more time for the Anglo-American Empire, it should also be very clear that the U.S. military, like the U.S. budget, is out of control with no one specifically in charge. What it is instead is an amorphous powerful monster that needs more lands to conquer to justify more military spending that in turn will continue to keep massive parasitic bureaucracies ever expanding so that hundreds of thousands of Americans can continue living a splendid lifestyle while Americans who produce things of value find their living standards ever in decline.

    If you are not questioning the legitimacy of the war just started this evening by the Neocons who run America you should be. Stop to ask yourself why for a second year in a row the Syrian leader would implement a gas attack on his own people a mere week after Trump said he would pull troops out of Syria, if the result of that would be to have bombs rain down on his country. Also ask yourself why the U.S. refused to let an impartial country like Norway do an independent investigation into who actually was responsible for the recent gas attack. In fact, like the weapons of mass destruction that dragged us into Iraq, there never has been any proof of last year’s gas attack or this most recent one.

    This may very well lead us into a hot war with Russia, a nuclear power. That is unthinkable but then who said the Military Industrial Complex, like a cornered animal being threatened by death, is doing much thinking? As I say, America is an empire that is out of control. Nothing but the hand of God will stop the enormous evil we are inflicting on country after country, rendering nations into death and poverty wherever we go.

    Trump couldn’t keep his campaign promises because the President is not the President. Kennedy tried to be. He never had time to realize he wasn’t the President, but the rest of us should have begun to understand that long ago, rather than quietly accepting the Warren Report, which I think had no more credibility than all other manner of CIA reporting that serves the out-of-control Imperial State monster whose heart resides in Washington.

    What does this have to do with the gold markets and gold shares? I would submit to you it has a great deal to do with it. The one currency that would put all nations on an even playing field would be gold. A gold standard would mean the U.S. would have to earn its way to wealth rather than print money to pay for endless wars, death, and destruction. Nixon took us off the international gold standard in 1971 for that very reason, which enabled banks and financial institutions to get rich by impoverishing Americans with debt and job losses funded by bankers who have access to printing-press money. It also made it possible for America to fund endless wars with debt. But to keep the dollar viable, its leading competitor had to be held at bay. Hence smackdowns like the one this past Wednesday.

    But the Russians and Chinese and a host of other countries are sick and tired of being told they have to use dollars for trade when doing so helps fund the U.S. that is outright hostile to those nations and seeks their overthrow. Led by the massive wealth gained by China over the years, financial institutions and a currency backed by gold appear to be well underway so that they can compete with the immoral monetary system the U.S. set up on August 15, 1971.

    Now this gets directly to the issue of gold. Watch very carefully when in a week or so the first petro yuan contract comes due on the Shanghai Exchange. You know that countries that sell their oil to China will have to get paid in yuan. If they are a bit shaky on accepting yuan, they can hedge against yuan by taking delivery of gold (not paper delivery but real gold) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, which, unlike the LBMA in London, is an honest, physical gold market.

    So while American economists with PhD’s in economics thumb their noses at gold as money and worship Keynesian lies that suggest nations can get rich by printing endless amounts of money no matter how far into debt and insolvency that takes them, the Russians (who are largely debt free) and the Chinese (not to mention the Iranians and other nations of Asia) are building up their gold reserves for the day when the U.S. self destructs, financially or otherwise.

    As an American I don’t wish for that because when that happens there will be untold pain in our country. But clearly, the stage has been set. The bombing of Damascus by Trump today may be the start of an unfathomable war that he had little chance of avoiding given the obvious control of our government by the Deep State.

    *  *  *

    I believe we are on the cusp of a major breakout in the price of gold. It is taking more and more paper gold to hold it down and if/when those who buy paper gold, thinking that will protect them as well as the real thing, find out that isn’t true we may see a run on physical gold that could send the yellow metal to prices undreamed of by the most bullish of gold bulls. [Technician Michael Oliver]’s initial target once we get through $1,350 at the end of this month or a month in the near future is $1,700. By that time, it’s hard to imagine that there won’t be quite a number of people trading in their marijuana and cryptocurrencies for gold and gold mining shares.

  • Trump Job Approval Highest Since First 100 Days; Majority Of Men Support The President

    Update: Trump has apparently taken notice, correctly pointing out that his approval rating, according to Rasmussen, is higher than Obama’s was at this point in his presidency.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    * * *

    Even Bloomberg and the Washington Post are being forced to admit that President Donald Trump’s approval rating is on the rise.

    Both media organizations, which had seized on every opportunity to tout the president’s approval rating when it was mired in the mid-to-low 30s, are now being forced to tout a recent Washington Post-ABC News poll showing Trump with an approval rating above 40% – his highest since his first 100 days in office.

    Poll

    Furthermore, among men, Trump’s approval rating has risen to 49%, while 47% of men disapprove. Meanwhile, 32% of women approve of the president’s job performance. Meaning that, for the first time, half of US men support the president.

     

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

     

    Nearly every credible poll is now showing the president’s job approval at his highest since taking office. On Friday, Rasmussen Reports published a poll showing 50% of likely US voters approve of Trump’s job performance – while 49% disapprove. Of those 34% strongly approve of the president’s jon performance, while 40% strongly disapprove.

    Last week, CNN was also forced to report that Trump’s approval rating has rebounded to its highest level since the 100-day mark, with 42% of likely voters approving of the way Trump is handling the presidency.

    The president’s strongest approval rating was for his handling of the economy, of which 48% approve and 45% disapprove. This is clearly a sign that the Republican’s tax cut plan has been welcomed by most Americans, who are beginning to see more money left in their paychecks.

    Finally, an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released last week shows Trump’s approval rating just four points below a peak reached last month – down from 43% to 39%.

    However, the president’s decision to attack Syria will likely dent his support among some of his most fervent backers, who had applauded Trump’s “America First” stance, and his promises to bring US troops home from abroad.

  • Take The Red Pill – The History Of Syrian False Flags Exposed

    “You take the red pill… and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes.”

    The infamous line from the movie ‘The Matrix’  – where Morpheus offers Neo a glimpse of the ‘real’ reality that is occurring, not the ‘manufactured’ reality that those whose rule want him to see – could not be a better analogy for what one brave (and clearly a treasonous Russian troll who should be banned from any and all social media forever) Twitter user exposes below.

    “Jad” – @Jadinho123 – shows how the world has been lied to many times to create the current Syrian theater of war…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Remember this photo of a kid laying next to her ‘dead’ parents who were ‘killed’ by Assad and this photo went viral and got thousands of retweets and had people crying all over Twitter?

    Well…

    Oh and remember this photo of this child who was in the back of an ambulance after supposedly being attacked by Assad and his regime???

    Well…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    It gets worse…

    And worser…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    And worsest…

    And a little make-up for good measure…

    And a rehearsal for a false flag chemical attack…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Remember the girl “running to survive and All her family have been killed…”

    Well, it was a clip from a music video!!…

    Oh, and remember that video of the Syrian boy ‘saving’ his sister from Assad forces?

    Well, it was a lie too…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    And here is the cast…

    And one has to wonder if this is a ‘coincidence’ or is this girl just shit out of luck?

    And CNN didn’t care…

    Remember this harrowing scene from Syria?

    Well it was Gaza…

    Remember Bana? The young Syrian girl living in Syria who would post videos blaming Assad and the regime for her friends and families deaths.

    Well, this is her dad…

    Here’s Bana meeting Turkish president Erdogan. Because a man who funds ISIS is so innocent right???

    h/t @Jadinho123

    Finally here are two truth-bombs that actually made it to the mainstream media…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Before being cut off...

    Now, go back to your dinner and your ignorantly uninformed, cognitively dissonant, unquestioning ‘patriotism’ to support whatever you’re told… no matter how much evidence of previous lies and manipulation you are confronted with.

  • This Is How The US Postal Service Loses So Much Money

    Authored by Justin Murray via The Mises Institute,

    Lately, when he isn’t trying to blame China on America’s competitiveness woes, President Donald Trump has become obsessed with the online retailer Amazon. While there’s speculationthat Trump is using the reins of government to carry out a personal grudge because Jeff Bezos, Amazon CEO, also owns The Washington Post, the more recent obsession is based on his belief that the United States Postal Service is subsidizing Amazon’s activity.

    The claim is that, based on a cost-plus method of pricing, Amazon is being subsidized $1.47 per package delivered by the USPS as a last-mile carrier. With an estimated608 million boxes shipped by the online retailer in 2017, Trump is implying that Amazon has shorted the postal service by $893 million.

    Considering the USPS lost $2.7 billion, this further implies that Amazon is a key reason why the USPS is struggling financially. Trump goes on to state that Amazon should fork over the entire $2.7 billion to cover the difference.

    A key problem here is the assumption that businesses operate on a cost-plus basis. This kind of thinking is a result of how warped government operations are, which frequently engage in cost-plus kinds of contracts. Cost-plus contracts are where the government agrees to cover all the applicable costs of performing the work plus a guaranteed profit. These forms of contracts are relatively unusual in the private business sector, where bidding on price are the primary form of activity. Because of the nature of cost-plus, and how they will frequently go over-budget because there is little incentive to control costs of performance, companies generally don’t engage in them. This means, in the world outside of tax-funded activity, the USPS has to compete with other package carriers like UPS and FedEx and doesn’t have the luxury of guaranteeing itself a profit on every activity.

    When it comes to the USPS, the organization has significant fixed costs. In business planning, prices are usually lower-bound by the variable cost of activity. Any revenues that are collected above and beyond the variable costs are able to contribute toward fixed expenses. This is referred to as the contribution margin. Because the fixed component exists whether the product or service is sold or not, companies will be pressured to lower prices until they reach this contribution margin is exhausted. Companies then hope to generate sufficient volume at this margin to cover the fixed expenses. If the choice is between no sale and a sale below an optimal price with some contribution margin, the organization will usually go with the lower than optimal price to at least slow the resource deterioration.

    The reason the USPS is in trouble and is struggling to cover its estimated $29 billion in fixed costs is because of its status as a partial legal monopoly. From the own words of the USPS, Congress has granted, with criminal penalty, the USPS total monopoly over the delivery of letters, with some carve-out exceptions (such as urgent or free of charge). Like most monopolies, the USPS had little incentive to keep costs controlled. In 1999, the USPS even went so far as to shrug off the burgeoning Internet, e-mail in particular, as some fad and engaged in sorting facility expansions with the expectation that letter volume would continue to grow. Since peaking in 2001, the number of letters delivered by the USPS has since collapsed to nearly half as much in 2017. The USPS costs, however, continued to increase, from $62 billion in 2000 to $72.3 billion in 2017, despite the collapse of business volume. The USPS was only able to remain solvent by leveraging its monopoly status by driving up the price of stamps from $0.34 for a first class stamp in 1999 to $0.50 later this year. But even this is running into limitations as the decline in mail volume accelerates.

    This monopoly, however, doesn’t cover package delivery, putting the USPS in a strange position of having a legal monopoly on only part of its business. This creates the impression that the package business is subsidized by the letter business since the prices on the letter side aren’t limited by a competitive force. This then creates the further impression that the expenses, which were never controlled because of the historical reliance on letter delivery, should be evenly applied to package delivery as well. Thus the assumption there is a subsidy at all when in reality the costs are grossly overinflated due to a lack of market discipline.

    When a private business is threatened by decreased volume, they usually have to trim operations to adjust their size to meet the new market demands. The USPS, on the other hand, does not do this. The organization continues to operate on the assumption it must make daily deliveries, six days a week, to every address in the nation. Even the old rural excuse has become weakened as the nation becomes more urban (assuming it was ever justified to tax city residents to provide city amenities to those who elected to live in remote places). Not that rural residents need a monopoly organization to deliver junk mail.

    Repeal the Postal Service’s Monopoly

    So what’s the answer to the failings of the USPS? Repeal the Private Express Statutes and let the USPS loose to manage its own affairs without Congressional interference in its operations. As Lysander Spooner famously proved back in 1844 with the American Letter Mail Company, the private sector can not only deliver the mail, it can deliver the mail profitably for a fraction of the cost of the postal service. This solves two problems:

    1. The appearance that Amazon is subsidized through the USPS is eliminated

    2. Profitable, stable delivery organizations can come into play

    Repealing the private express statutes and getting government out of the mail delivery business may also very well save the USPS as not only can the USPS get out from under populist mandates, such as the overly generous retirement program and maintaining an absurd number of postal service locations; the USPS maintains over twice as many postal stops as McDonald’s has restaurants. It will also open up the market to more competition and competition breeds superior operations for competing members as creative methods of operation are more likely to be identified and can be mimicked, leading to superior operations for all players.

    In the end, the “problem” with Amazon is self-inflicted by the government insisting it operates a monopoly letter carrier. Trump can fix the problem with one fell swoop by pressuring Congress not to pass laws imposing higher rates on Amazon delivered packages, which will only accelerate the failure of the USPS since Amazon would just pick an alternate carrier, but to open up unrestricted competition in mail delivery and cut the USPS loose from the government tether. It certainly worked out well in New Zealand.

  • Nearly One-Third Of Americans Believe Facebook Has A "Negative Impact On Society"

    Chamath Palihapitiya, former Facebook vice president for user growth, isn’t the only one who believes his former employer is ripping apart the fabric of society.

    Palihapitiya triggered an unexpectedly intense backlash after revealing that he feels “tremendous guilt” for his role in building the social media giant, warning that, if you feed the beast, that beast will destroy you…”

    “I feel tremendous guilt.”

    “I think we have created tools that are ripping apart the social fabric of how society works. That is truly where we are.”

    “I would encourage all of you, as the future leaders of the world, to really internalize how important this is.  If you feed the beast, that beast will destroy you.  If you push back on it you have a chance to control it and reign it in.”

    “There is a point in time when people need a hard break from some of these tools.”

    “The short-term, dopamine-driven feedback loops we’ve created are destroying how society works.  No civil discourse, no cooperation; misinformation, mistruth. And it’s not an American problem — this is not about Russians ads. This is a global problem.”

    “So, we’re in a really bad state of affairs right now, in my opinion.  It is eroding the core foundations of how people behave by and between each other.”

    “And, I don’t have a good solution.  You know, my solution is I just don’t use these tools anymore.  I ahven’t for years.  It’s created huge tension with my friends.  Huge tensions in my social circles.”

    …He later walked his comments back after twitter users suggested that he maybe donate some of the money he made off the enterprise to a worthy cause.

    And now, shortly after it published reports about a survey showing 10% of US Facebook users deleted their accounts in the wake of the company’s latest data-privacy scandal, Recode is back with another scathing story about Facebook’s public identity crisis.

    Tavis McGinn, Mark Zuckerberg’s former personal pollster, conducted a survey that exposes just how reviled Facebook is in many parts of the world. Indeed, up to 33% of responds in Australia, Canada and the UK say Facebook is having a “negative impact on society.”

    Americans have a similarly negative perception of FB, with just 32% (about 54 million people) of the population also believing that Facebook has a negative impact. For context, that makes Facebook more popular than Marlboro cigarettes, but worse than McDonald’s.

    FB

    In fact, the only countries where distrust in Facebook was relatively low were countries like Japan, where few people use Facebook.

    McGinn, who recently opened his own polling firm after leaving Facebook after six months, said he didn’t ask what, specifically, these negative impacts might be – but he says he has an idea.

    “In the U.S. obviously we’re very focused on election interference, and in the U.K. they’ve been focused on that as well with Brexit,” McGinn told Recode. “But there are also things like, ‘how does it affect children, how does the platform create addiction, how does the platform encourage extremism, how does the platform push American values onto other countries?’”

    There’s also the issue of Facebook’s data policies, which McGinn, who spent three years at Google, says are a result of Facebook’s DNA.

    “The culture has always been focused on driving usage, on getting more people to use and how to get them to spend longer on the platform,” he said. “It influences every decision, large and small.”

    And here’s the kicker: McGinn conducted his poll in January and February. Which means that, judging by the decline in user engagement – which had already been on the decline before the Cambridge Analytica scandal – negative perceptions of the company have probably worsened.

  • The Systemic Racism Of American Gun Control

    Authored by Steve C. via Free Market Shooter blog,

    Imagine if you will, centuries of racially-targeted denial of a well established, and popular civil right in the United States. Within this context, imagine that going back to colonial times, that it was at times legal to physically attack or even kill a free black person who was practicing this right, or that later state constitutions would outright prohibit the exercise of this right if you happened to have the wrong skin color.

    Imagine too, the US Supreme Court determining that citizenship rights could not be extended to free persons of color, lest they exercise this fundamental liberty. I am of course, talking about the right to keep and bear arms, which in a nutshell has laid out the horrors of systemic racism applied to that right from the colonial era to the Civil War.

    In 1857,  Chief Justice Taney wrote in the infamous Dred Scott case, that to extend citizenship to the “negro race” would allow black people to “keep and carry arms wherever they went.” This, along with voting and free speech, was problematic to white America at the time. Fear of slave revolts was so powerful, that even free blacks were to be denied basic civil rights, lest they perhaps attempt to overthrow slaveholders.

    After the Civil War, when thousands of freed slaves had served in the Union Army, and learned the use of arms, the situation was no better. As former Confederate states rejoined the Union, they quickly imposed onerous restrictions on the bearing of arms, with the understanding that they would not be enforced against white citizens. In 1870, the state of Tennessee banned ownership of all but the most expensive handguns. By 1907 five southern states had outlawed handguns altogether  (South Carolina, 1902) required their registration (Mississippi, 1906) or had instituted full or partial bans on inexpensive handguns (Tennessee in 1870 and 79, Arkansas in 1882, and Alabama in 1893).

    In each case, these laws were explicitly race based. Other southern states would over time admit that their gun laws were specifically designed to limit or prevent black citizens from acquiring or bearing arms, or would enforce such laws only along racial lines. In 1911, New York City passed the infamous Sullivan Act which was an open effort to disarm Eastern European immigrants, and other persons not wealthy or politically connected enough to acquire a permit to carry a pistol. As late as 1968, many believed the Gun Control Act of 1968 was passed less to control guns, and more “to control blacks”.

    Thomas Nasts 1878 political cartoon vilified white supremacy and reveals how helpless recently freed blacks were in some parts of the South

    Into the 1980’s and 90’s further attacks against poor (and usually black) persons and their right to keep and bear arms continued. Many state housing projectsattempted to ban the possession of guns in public housing, while in 1988 Maryland imposed a ban on inexpensive handguns, perhaps the most modern and recent ban on guns based on price.

    Florida at one time, went so far as to require a license to own “Winchester rifles” or other repeating rifles. This law, first enacted in 1893, and revised in 1901 was an insidious way to prevent minorities from gaining access to modern rifle cartridges like the .30-30 Winchester or modern bolt action rifles chambered for the same cartridge as the US Army Springfield. By attempting to bar blacks and other minorities from accessing modern repeating rifles, Florida was seeking to ensure they would remain helpless against a tyrannical state, and white supremacists. Needless to say, white people never had trouble gaining permission to own modern repeating rifles during this time.

    The National Firearms Act of 1934, or NFA was the first attempt at a national set of gun control laws that applied in all states. While not overtly racist, it targeted “gangster weapons”, and also would have originally placed handguns under the same strict regulation as machine guns and other NFA items. However, then, as now, “gangster” is often a polite way of describing an ethnic minority or minorities who are seen as undesirable. In the early 20th century, this was often Eastern European immigrants, which New York City’s Sullivan act targeted, in what may have been the first case of racist gun control laws targeted at Europeans.

    Today, the NFA continues to burden law abiding Americans by vilifying safety equipment such as suppressors, and making it difficult to acquire rifles and shotguns with short barrels. All this, due to racially driven moral panics over Prohibition era “gangsters” who often ran the gamut of socially unacceptable ethnic origins.

    Today, there is a great deal of heated debate on the way police treat ethnic minorities lawfully bearing arms as opposed to how they treat white people. In the 1960’s and 70’s, active and openly armed resistance played an important role in the Civil Rights Movement, and the Black Panthers most famously took it to to extremes by openly bearing arms at several state capitol buildings. It should be noted, that in California and Washington State, that action resulted in new laws about the open display of guns, but modern day (and mostly white) open displays of arms under similar circumstances have not been met with new legislation.

    Members of the Black Panthers protest for gun rights in Olympia, Washington – 1969

    We might speculate that modern day attempts at gun control are race neutral, but if you consider that most, if not all gun control is driven from major population centers, and that “tough on crime” is just another racist dogwhistle, then we can start seeing the more implicit gun control. Rarely do these sorts of laws openly target rural areas, but “inner city gun crime” is regularly trotted out as some sort of crisis to stamp out – and if it happens to disarm law abiding minorities, who cares?

    One might ask why in the enlightened 21st century, there is still fear over armed minorities. The answer remains the same. An armed person is free, but a disarmed person is a subject. The War on Drugs succeeded in destroying the inner cities by breaking up families, and disenfranchising millions of minorities, and on the heels of this, modern day gun control has succeeded in leaving only criminals and violent gangs armed. Today, as in the harsh years of the 19th century, racism requires minorities to be unarmed, and unable to fully stand up for themselves, or their rights, lest they too gain their place in the sun and walk as equals in American society.

    The question then, is how to combat this pervasive, systemic racism? The very political party that claims to support the best interests of American minorities, also is the one that openly, and actively seeks to disarm them. The Democratic Party’s open assault on gun rights even has a paternalistic ring to it, that is straight out of the 19th century. We must ban guns “for the children” or “to protect our communities.” From their lofty (and mostly white) seats of power, they demand the inner cities and urban areas of America surrender their arms, their liberties and their rights in order to “fight crime”, and in return, they are met with hostile police forces, an ongoing war on civil rights disguised as a war on drugs, and the assurance that the government will protect them. This of course, being the same government that has spent hundreds of years actively suppressing these populations. How it is different today is beyond me.

    Today, it is expected ethnic minorities will be left wing leaning, and it is expected if you are left wing, you are anti gun. It is a perfect formula that took centuries to perfect. How better to disarm a people, than to convince them to support that idea themselves? It is insidious, twisted and a violation of all basic moral and legal ideals which this country was founded upon.  Landmark Supreme Court decisions like Heller and McDonald have established once and for all that the 2nd Amendment applies to ALL states and ALL Americans. Places like Chicago and Washington DC have grossly abused these rulings by imposing strict limits on carrying guns, and imposed excessive financial and regulatory burdens on acquiring permits to carry a gun. Other states like California and many East Coast states already do the same. It is the same, age old tactic. Pay lip service to civil rights, but make sure that only the well to do, and well connected can actually exercise them.

    What then can be done to combat the deeply rooted racism that is at the heart of gun control in modern America? This is a very complicated question, as the very idea of minorities organizing for their interests has been seen as threatening by many people over the years. However, there are now a rock solid set of Supreme Court cases which make it patently clear that the right to keep and bear arms is a right for all  Americans to enjoy. There are many pro-gun groups which actively promote the right to keep and bear arms, and increasing minority membership in them is a net positive for all parties involved.

    The divisive nature of American politics today often pits people with shared common interests against each other, if they happen to espouse different beliefs in other areas. While many rational Americans agree about some things, they do not agree on all, but in the arena of gun rights, all gun owners should welcome each other, and put aside other political differences to promote gun rights for all people. This may be the biggest stumbling block to overcoming the deep seated racism that is modern day gun control. Far too often I have seen so-called conservativesreject gun owning allies, because they voted the wrong way. Divisive and emotion driven political beliefs on non gun related issues keep gun owners apart from each other, and this wedge is almost assuredly a deliberate action to keep people from coming together in common purpose.

    Racism is a vicious, ugly and horrible blight on American society, and now more than ever it must be stamped out, and gun rights taken back from laws rooted in keeping slaves and free blacks under control, or in suppressing the rights of the poorest and most vulnerable members of our society. Civil rights are for everybody, and everybody must come together to defend them.

    For more reading about the roots of racism in American gun control, I recommend Clayton Cramer’s The Racist Roots of Gun Control, and Robert F. Williams’ Negroes With Guns as well as Akinyele Omowale Umoja’s We Will Shoot Back: Armed Resistance in the Mississippi Freedom Movement.

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Today’s News 15th April 2018

  • The War Machine Springs To Life Over Syria

    Update: A few short hours after the initial writing of this report, the US, the UK and France conducted a missile air strike against Syria 

    Authored by Chris Martenson via PeakProsperity.com,

    NATO has drawn 1st blood. Will Russia respond?

    The events of the past few days involving Syria, the US and Russia are highly concerning.

    Currently, the US is busy readying to drop just dropped ~120 missiles on Syria to punish it for an alleged poison gas attack on its civilians. I say “alleged” because no on-the-ground investigation has been conducted.

    At this point, we don’t really know with confidence what was done by whom. But America’s war machine is straining hard against it’s chain, eager to strike. And this poison gas atrocity may just be the excuse the West needs to unleash it.

    Whodunit?

    We do know that Syria at one time indeed had stockpiles of chemical weapons. But they handed them over to international inspectors some years back.  Could they have kept some stocks hidden? Sure.

    But we also know that the rebel jihadists in Syria have been caught making and using chemical weapons many times in the recent past.  Russia has repeatedly brought forth evidence of chemical manufacturing sites (very crude basement laboratories, really), located in areas recently recaptured from Syrian jihadists and mercenaries. So it easily could have been the jihadists that conducted the gas attack.

    Are these so-called “moderate rebels” morally capable of using poison gas on civilians, children especially?  You bet they are.  These are proven head-choppers, supported by the US, who have publicly posted numerous videos of themselves beheading children.  Morals are not part of their framework or this war.

    Plus, the gas war crime certainly serves their interest more than it does Assad’s at this time.

    Between the two suspects, it’s far more likely that the increasingly desperate jihadists, who are clearly losing the fight at this point, would use any and every method at their employ to their advantage. 

    The West’s response right now feels like a bad detective movie. Imagine the lead investigator of a grisly murder choosing to focuses first on the neighbor down the hall, while ignoring the spouse with a past history of domestic abuse and who recently took out a very large life insurance policy on the victim.  The current “Blame Assad!” narrative seems a poorly written script where you have to overlook a lot of gaping plot holes to get through the movie.

    So there hasn’t been an independent investigation to clarify with confidence who is the guilty party here. But that hasn’t stopped a swift verdict from circulating throughout the western press: “Assad’s government did it, and must be punished.”

    Keep in mind that US-made cluster bombs are busy killing children in Yemen. And nearly 130 Yemen children die every day from starvation thanks to the combined actions of Saudi and US forces blockading that nation’s access to world markets. 

    Suddenly, children in Syria matter a lot to the West, while Yemen’s child victims are rarely ever mentioned. Suddenly there’s an urgent moral issue being rushed through the court of public opinion.

    This has all the hallmarks of the prior propaganda campaigns we’ve seen before.  Scant evidence, immediate assignment of blame, and a quick rush to military action before anybody can really properly question the train of events.

    The Rising Risk Of War

    Which leads us to where we are now: the US and several NATO countries may attack just attacked Syria very soon with cruise missiles launched from ships (highest likelihood) and possibly airplanes.

    Any such attack, it needs repeating, would be illegal under world laws if it happens without prior UN Security Council approval. Receiving such approval will be highly unlikely, because Russia sits on that council and has veto vote power.  So any attack will, by definition be illegal, and not a sanctioned affair.

    However, the US and its allies have been operating illegally in Syria for many years. They haven’t shown much concern to-date for securing international approval of their actions. It’s unlikely to expect that to change anytime soon.

    But the US isn’t the only one on the schoolyard who can throw a punch. Russia, which has been supporting the Bashir al-Assad regime in Syria, is now taking a much harder line.

    After years of being increasingly painted as the West’s favorite villain (the latest campaign instantly blaming Putin for the poisoning of ex-spy Skripal was particularly hamfisted), Russia has made it clear: they are done being provoked. They won’t backpedal any farther. If/when the US launches missiles at Syria, Russia has promised to shoot them down and fire a counter-strike at the launchers.

    This is serious folks:

    Russia will shoot down all US missiles and sources of fire, Russian Ambassador says

    Russian Ambassador to Lebanon Alexander Zasypkin said in an interview with the Lebanese TV channel Al-Manar that Russia would shoot down all missiles in case of US military aggression against Syria, RIA Novosti reports.

    Russian air defence systems will be used to destroy both the weapons and the sources of fire.

    Earlier, The New York Times reported that US presidential aides recommended the head of the White House to inflict a series of fierce attacks on several targets in Syria in response to the alleged chemical attack in the city of Douma, even though the fact of the chemical attack itself was never proved.

    If Russia shoots back at the “sources of fire”, that means the US ships and planes used to launch the cruise missiles

    I’d personally be worried sick if someone I loved was on the USS Donald Cook right now.  This is the “source of fire” most likely to be employed. 

    Oddly, it’s all alone there in the Mediterranean. Other US ships appear to be days away. Perhaps it’s “odd” in the same way as when the best ships in the seventh fleet were conveniently out of harm’s way when Pearl Harbor was attacked, leaving only older less seaworthy ships to be sunk, and giving President Roosevelt the casus belli he needed to get America into WW2.

    Will the USS Donald Cook be the neo-cons’ sacrifice as they endeavor to get their war with Russia kicked into a higher gear?

    The US, for its part, is apparently busy communicating with the Russians, communicating it will seek to avoid killing any Russians if at all possible should it strike Syria.  This will limit the range of targets, but the risks are still very, very high:

    A strike against Syria will likely come in the form of missiles, as was the case last year.

    The United States would not want to risk putting manned aircraft over Syrian air defenses — a shoot-down would send the conflict spiraling in unforeseeable new directions.

    The USS Donald Cook, an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer, is within easy striking range of Syria, as is a French frigate with its own cruise missiles.

    These two ships, possibly aided by a US submarine, are likely to play a role in a strike.

    What are the risks?

    The reaction from Assad backer Moscow is unpredictable and Russia has threatened retaliatory action against the United States if missiles are fired at Syria.

    The Russian army on Wednesday accused the White Helmets civil defense organization of staging a chemical weapons attack in Douma, where observers say more than 40 people died in a gas attack.

    NBC News reported Tuesday that Russia has learned how to use GPS jammers to limit the capabilities of US drones operating over Syria.

    “The US has to be very careful not to accidentally strike Russian targets or kill Russian advisors,” Ben Connable, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, told AFP.

    “That significantly limits the number of options available to the United States, because the Russians are embedded in many cases with the Syrians.”

    Connable warned that if the US accidentally or purposefully kills uniformed Russian soldiers, there would potentially be a dangerous escalation between the two nuclear powers.

    (Source)

    The plan here is for Trump get to appear tough, garnering the praise of the war party in the US (which is solidly bi-partisan) and the war press (the entire MSM), while not killing any Russians and, frankly, not doing too much actual damage to Syria.

    This is pretty much from the same playbook as last year’s false-flag gas attack in Syria, when we fired 59 Tomahawk missiles. 

    But this time, Russia has made it clear that any repeat of last year’s missile attack will have consequences. It has moved its key naval assets out of port and into strike positions:

    APRIL 12, 2018: RUSSIA STARTS EXERCISES OFF SYRIAN COAST, VOWS RESPONSE TO US STRIKES

    The Russian Navy has launched live-fire exercises off the Syrian coast as the US is still preparing for a possible military action against the country’s government.

    The Russian exercises will be held from April 11 to April 26, the period when, according to some experts, the US strike will be most likely if the administration of US President Donald Trump decides to attack Syria.

    On April 10, Russia’s envoy to Lebanon Alexander Zasypkin once again confirming that Russian forces are ready to shoot down missiles and target the launchers in case of an escalation in the war-torn country.

    Ali Akbar Velayati, the top adviser to Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, vowed to support the Damascus government against any attack of the US and its allies.

    So now we have Russian ships in the Mediterranean on live-fire exercises, bumping around a smallish sea with US naval assets, with everybody on pins and needles as NATO-Russia relations break down and tensions rise.

    What could possibly go wrong?

    Again, sane people ought to be asking why we are even in this position in the first place.  Exactly what US interests are at risk in Syria? Whatever they may be, is defending them worth risking a hot confrontation with a nuclear power over? So far, I’ve seen zero compelling explanations on this front.

    A Dangerous Advertising Campaign?

    Looked at from a different angle, here’s an interesting article from a Russian newspaper (translated by Google so please read past the choppy writing…) which posits that the attack will be proven a useful test of Russia’s latest anti-missile systems.

    If successful, Russia may well get to sell lots of them in the future. Great news comrades! We’re getting the chance to showcase our products!

    The S-400 and “Pantsiri” are preparing for a grandiose exam in Syria

    “Russian air defense systems in Syria have an opportunity to show everything they are capable of,” a source close to the Russian Defense Ministry noted in a comment to the newspaper VZGLYAD. Such a check is worth a lot, the interlocutor notes.

    “For the military all over the world, this will be an extremely important lesson – the analysis of this blow and its reflection will long be handled by the headquarters of all the leading military powers of the world,” the general believes. The subject of analysis will also be how the electronic warfare complexes (EW) will work when reflecting missile strikes.

    The number of downed enemy missiles is not an end in itself, Lieutenant-General Alexander Gorkov, head of the air defense missile forces in 2000-2008, remarked in conversation with the newspaper VZGLYAD. He stressed: “The air defense forces are designed to completely conserve the object. Therefore, if only one of the 100 rockets is shot down, but the one that flew exactly to the target, and because of this the object survived, this is considered a success. “

    But there are objective criteria for anti-aircraft gunners.

    This indicator means the probability of a target being hit by one missile. The number of intercepted targets is divided by the total number of missiles fired. For example, less than 0.7 means low efficiency; 0.8 and above – good, 0.9 – excellent, explained earlier to the portal ” Economy Today ” Lieutenant General Aitech Bizhev, former deputy commander-in-chief of the Russian Air Force on the CIS Joint Air Defense System.

    “If we are talking about cruise missiles going at extremely low altitudes, then the efficiency should be at least 0.85-0.90,

    As an example, Bezhev cited the result of the Syrian air defense forces, which recently repulsed the attack of  Israeli aircraft. F-15 planes fired eight missiles, the Syrians intercepted five of them. Thus, the coefficient was 0.6, that is 60% of the shot down missiles. This result is not very pleasing, Bezhev complained.

    However, the expert of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (ACT) Vasily Kashin believes that the destruction of 50-60% of US missiles would be a huge success for Russian weapons. In fact, he added, even the destruction of 30% can be considered a great success, if we bear in mind both Russian and Syrian air defense forces.

    It should be taken into account that the Syrians used old complexes, notes Bizhev. And the newest S-400 air defense systems are located at Russian facilities – the Khmeimim base and in Tartus. According to the Lieutenant-General, the efficiency of the S-400 for unobtrusive speed targets is 0.9, that is “magnificent”, 90%.

    In turn, Kashin recalls: in addition to our ground-based air defense in Syria will be two Russian frigates with the complex “Shtil-1”, which stand off the coast of Syria. “Each of them has a vertical launch for 24 anti-aircraft missiles,” the expert reminded VZGLYAD.

    Potential buyers of weapons following the outcome of this conflict will draw conclusions about which weapon systems are more effective – American cruise missiles or Russian air defense systems. For a correct assessment, it is important to consider how many missiles are fired at the covered targets. “If the enemy will use a huge number of missiles, for example, more than 200, then you do not know exactly how many missiles will be on the target. Miracles do not happen, “Kashin said. He adds that it is impossible to completely repulse such a blow.

    “For example, there are 100 air targets, for each we spend two anti-missiles. With this amount you need to have a very high ammunition. Is there such a number of missiles in the ammunition of the grouping deployed in Syria? “Asks General Alexander Gorkov.

    “The combat component of the S-300 division is 32 missiles (if there are eight launchers) or 48 missiles, if 12 units are available,” the interlocutor points out. “If two rockets are used for each shooting, the ammunition will be enough for 16 or 24 launches, respectively.” If the coefficient of 0.9 is shown in these shootings, this will be evaluated as a success, including potential buyers of Russian weapons.

    Even if that was a little long and technical for you, just know I find it possibly comforting. If Russia is looking for a ‘grandiose exam’ of its war matériel, and the US is going to attack mainly to satisfy internal politics (and Russia knows this), then that may contain any military exchange to a relatively small skirmish (for now). 

    But if not, and Russia is truly backed into a corner, tired of the West’s vilification and NATO’s encroachment, it will show it claws. History has long shown that the Middle East is a powder keg where conflicts can easily escalate quickly. Where escalation might lead in this case is very worrisome indeed.

    Time To Prepare For War

    There remains, as yet, no evidence proving Assad’s government was behind the alleged gas attack in Douma.

    All that’s been presented to the world are video clips showing what appear to be stricken people. However, we have long learned that such videos prove to be fraudulent. The same White Helmets who released these clips have been caught many times before using crisis actors and staging events that look just like the videos released — shaking cameras that sweep and lurch in tights shots over closely spaced bodies, poor lighting, etc. 

    Moreover, the US and NATO blamed Assad and Russia within hours of these release of these videos, well before any actual evidence could have been collected and confirmed. As of course, they’ve similarly done time and again over the past years. Clearly, there’s an eagerness on the West’s side to find a reason to take harder action against Russia.

    Will this one be it?

    While the prospect of a kinetic (shooting) conflict between the West and Russia is obviously of greatest concern, the war could happen in one or several of many other forms (cyber, financial, trade, etc.) which I’ve written about extensively in the past.

    We need to prepare ourselves for the prospect of war, even if this situation merely turns out to be an S-400 marketing blitz.  Because at the current trajectory, even if this event turns out not to be the flashpoint that ignites a larger confrontation, the odds of one that does happening soon is just too damn high.

    It’s very clear that the US has embedded neocons that want a unipolar world where the US is top dog and gets to boss around China and Russia.  That makes war “highly likely” in our future. 

    China and Russia quite rightly believe that they deserve to be treated on more equal footing and have their own national pride and internal political realities with which to contend, meaning they cannot appear to be pushed around by the US.  Saving face is important.

    In Part 2: What To Prepare For we assess the most likely paths the current standoff may take, the probability of each, and what the ramifications of each would be. Knowing tomorrow’s likeliest outcomes will help you best prepare today.

    An escalating conflict between the US and Russia, even if limited to a proxy war in Syria, will result in tremendous casualites — of life, of geopolicital relations, and of markets. Protect yourself, those you love, and your wealth from becoming part of the collateral damage.

    Click here to read Part 2 of this report (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access)

  • 9 Things Cannabis Investors Should Know

    The swift regulatory changes taking place in the global cannabis sector are almost without modern precedent.

    While some find the situation analogous to the repeal of Prohibition in the United States,Visual Capitalist’s Jeff Desjardins notes that it’s also fair to point out that such events happened 85 years ago in the midst of the Great Depression. It was a long time ago, and in a very different economic climate.

    Today’s infographic comes to us from Evolve ETFs, and it shows what investors should know as the legal cannabis sector comes out of the dark.

    Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

    WHAT CANNABIS INVESTORS SHOULD KNOW

    Since there is so much happening at once with little precedent for what such a market will look like, it’s worth summing up the sector’s potential in broad strokes:

    1. Global Size
    According to research from The Brightfield Group, the size of the legal cannabis sector is expected to surge from $7.7 billion to $31.4 billion between 2017 and 2021.

    Currently the recreational market makes up only 37% of the global total – but by 2021, that will rise to 57%.

    2. Versatile Uses
    Cannabis comes in different forms. One gram of dried cannabis is roughly equivalent to:

    • 5g of fresh cannabis

    • 15g of edible product

    • 70g of liquid product

    • 0.25g of concentrates

    • 1 cannabis plant seed

    These can be used in various medical applications, including to fight chronic pain, migraines, anxiety, multiple sclerosis, and nausea. Cannabis can also be used to treat Alzheimer’s, PTSD, and cancer.

    3. North American Growth
    By 2021, it’s estimated that North American sales will make up 86% of the global market. Specifically, the U.S. legal market is projected to hit $18.1 billion by that time, while the Canadian legal market is expected to be $8.9 billion in that same year.

    4. A Shifting Legal Landscape
    Canada will be the first G7 country to legalize cannabis at a federal level.

    In the United States, recreational cannabis is already legalized in nine states – but this could change swiftly as various states undergo referendums.

    5. European Markets
    In 2017, the legal market for cannabis is estimated to be just $0.11 billion, but by 2021 it will have expanded to $3.8 billion.

    According to The Brightfield Group, growth will be quite impressive in Western Europe: Germany’s market will grow at a 284% annual rate, the Netherlands at 364%, and Spain at 334%.

    6. Rest of the World
    Although markets outside of North America and Europe will not see the same growth in absolute dollar terms, the legal cannabis market will still expand from $80 million to $350 million, led by activity in Latin America.

    7. Pharmaceutical Research
    Israel has a special place in the cannabis world – the country is world leader in medical cannabis research, and industry expects that it will eventually translate into a $1 billion export opportunity. That said, export plans have hit a recent road bump.

    8. Investment Activity
    Compare the start of 2018 to that of 2017, and you’ll see an impressive difference in investment activity.

    For this we use Canada with its impending recreational legalization as an example: in the first six weeks of 2018, investment was up nearly 7x over the previous year. Further, the average deal size increased from $5.6 million to $18.7 million.

    Meanwhile, the Canadian Cannabis Index rose 201% between January 2017 and January 2018.

    9. How to Invest?
    There are a variety of ways to gain exposure to the sector, including:

    • Licensed producer stocks

    • Biotech stocks

    • Ancillary services stocks

    • Licensed retailer stocks

    • Cannabis ETFs

    Regardless of how you play it, the legal cannabis sector is coming out of the dark – and it will be interesting to see how the industry takes shape.

  • WikiLeaks Secret Cable: "Overthrow The Syrian Regime, But Play Nice With Russia"

    Hours after the overnight US-led missile strikes on Syria, WikiLeaks republished a crucially important diplomatic cable through its official media accounts confirming that Saudi Arabia’s long term strategy in Syria has been to pursue regime change “by all means available.” According to the leaked internal Saudi government document, this is the kingdom’s proposed end-goal even should the United States at any point show “lack of desire” due to the threat of Russian response and possibility of a ‘great power’ confrontation. 

    With American lawmakers and media pundits already urging President Trump to escalate and sustain attacks against Syria, it must be remembered that close US allies like Israel and Saudi Arabia have long coordinated to create the conditions that might tip the US administration toward full military action resulting in regime change in Damascus. And more recently, fresh off his weeks-long tour of the US, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has both slammed previous proposals of US troop withdrawal in Syria and declared eagerness “to work with allies on any military response in Syria if needed.”

    It is also essential to recall that the al-Qaeda linked group which originated the claims of a government orchestrated chemical attack on civilians in the Damascus suburb of Douma, called Jaish al Islam (JAI), is and has always been state sponsored by the Saudi regimeThe Guardian, among others, reported beginning in 2013 that Saudi Arabia founded and trained the group, spending millions. 

    Secret Saudi cable produced by WikiLeaks: Saudi Arabia “must seek by all means available and all possible ways to overthrow the current regime in Syria” even should the United States at any point show “lack of desire.”

    Notably, as Russia as well as some Western counter-terror experts continue to point the finger at Jaish al Islam (and the “White Helmets”) for staging the Douma “chemical attack” in order to provoke the US military response, it has emerged through past reporting that JAI itself had used chemical weapons against Kurdish militias in Aleppo’s Sheikh Maqsoud district in 2016 (and it appears that the Saudi-backed group openly admitted to carrying out prior chemical attacks according to The Daily Beast).

    Given this current context and the continued rapid unfolding of the crisis, the previously leaked ‘secret’ Saudi memo published by WikiLeaks takes on new significance and meaning: did the Saudis finally trigger their “by any means available” scenario (a ‘chemical incident’) at a moment when their proxies were collapsing in the face of overwhelming Syrian Army victory? 

    The below article and translation was originally authored by Brad Hoff in 2016 for WikiLeaks and Foreign Policy Journal, and is used here with permission.  

    * * *

    Secret Intel Memo: Overthrow the Regime “by all means available”

    A WikiLeaks cable released as part of “The Saudi Cables” in the summer of 2015, now fully translated here for the first time, reveals what the Saudis feared most in the early years of the war: Russian military intervention and Syrian retaliation. These fears were such that the kingdom directed its media “not to oppose Russian figures and to avoid insulting them” at the time.

    https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/985171468525940737

    Saudi Arabia had further miscalculated that the “Russian position” of preserving the Assad government “will not persist in force.” In Saudi thinking, reflected in the leaked memo, Assad’s violent ouster (“by all means available”) could be pursued so long as Russia stayed on the sidelines.

    The following section of the leaked cable is categorical in its emphasis on regime change at all cost, even should the U.S. vacillate for “lack of desire”:

    “The fact must be stressed that in the case where the Syrian regime is able to pass through its current crisis in any shape or form, the primary goal that it will pursue is taking revenge on the countries that stood against it, with the Kingdom and some of the countries of the Gulf coming at the top of the list. If we take into account the extent of this regime’s brutality and viciousness and its lack of hesitancy to resort to any means to realize its aims, then the situation will reach a high degree of danger for the Kingdom, which must seek by all means available and all possible ways to overthrow the current regime in Syria. As regards the international position, it is clear that there is a lack of ‘desire’ and not a lack of ‘capability’ on the part of Western countries, chief among them the United States, to take firm steps…”

    Amman-based Albawaba News—one of the largest online news providers in the Middle East—was the first to call attention to the WikiLeaks memo, which “reveals Saudi officials saying President Bashar al-Assad must be taken down before he exacts revenge on Saudi Arabia.” Albawaba offered a brief partial translation of the cable, which though undated, was likely produced in early 2012 (based on my best speculation using event references in the text; Russia began proposing informal Syrian peace talks in January 2012).

    Russian Hardware, a Saudi Nightmare

    Over the past weeks Saudi Arabia has ratcheted up its rhetoric on Syria, threatening direct military escalation and the insertion of special forces on the ground, ostensibly for humanitarian and stabilizing purposes as a willing partner in the “war on terror.” As many pundits are now observing, in reality the kingdom’s saber rattling stems not from confidence, but utter desperation as its proxy anti-Assad fighters face defeat by overwhelming Russian air power and Syrian ground forces, and as the Saudi military itself is increasingly bogged down in Yemen.

    Even as the Saudi regime dresses its bellicose rhetoric in humanitarian terms, it ultimately desires to protect the flow of foreign fighters into Northern Syria, which is its still hoped-for “available means” of toppling the Syrian government (or at least, at this point, permanent sectarian partition of Syria).

    U.S. State Department Confirmation

    The U.S. State Department’s own 2014 Country Report on Terrorism confirms that the rate of foreign terrorist entry into Syria over the past few years is unprecedented among any conflict in history:

    “The rate of foreign terrorist fighter travel to Syria–totaling more than 16,000 foreign terrorist fighters from more than 90 countries as of late December–exceeded the rate of foreign terrorist fighters who traveled to Afghanistan and Pakistan, Iraq, Yemen, or Somalia at any point in the last 20 years.”

    According to Cinan Siddi, Director of the Institute for Turkish Studies at Georgetown’s prestigious School of Foreign Service, Russian military presence in Syria was born of genuine geopolitical interests. In a public lecture recently given at Baylor University, Siddi said that Russia is fundamentally trying to disrupt the “jihadi corridor” facilitated by Turkey and its allies in Northern Syria.

    The below leaked document gives us a glimpse into Saudi motives and fears long before Russian hardware entered the equation, and the degree to which the kingdom utterly failed in assessing Russian red lines.

    * * *

    A full translation of the text

    THE BELOW is an original and authenticated translation of the WikiLeaks file published as part of “The Saudi Cables.”  Note: the cable as published in the SaudiLeaks trove appears to be incomplete. Its accompanying pages have yet to be located within the massive trove of leaked Arabic documents. 

    […] shared interest, and believes that the current Russian position only represents a movement to put pressure on him, its goals being evident, and that this position will not persist in force, given Russia’s ties to interests with Western countries and the countries of the Gulf.

    If it pleases Your Highness, I support the idea of entering into a profound dialogue with Russia regarding its position towards Syria*, holding the Second Strategic Conference in Moscow, working to focus the discussion during it on the issue of Syria, and exerting whatever pressure is possible to dissuade it from its current position. I likewise see an opportunity to invite the head of the Committee for International Relations in the Duma to visit the Kingdom. Since it is better to remain in communication with Russia and to direct the media not to oppose Russian figures and to avoid insulting them, so that no harm may come to the interests of the Kingdom, it is possible that the new Russian president will change Russian policy toward Arab countries for the better. However, our position currently in practice, which is to criticize Russian policy toward Syria and its positions that are contrary to our declared principles, remains. It is also advantageous to increase pressure on the Russians by encouraging the Organization of Islamic States to exert some form of pressure by strongly brandishing Islamic public opinion, since Russia fears the Islamic dimension more than the Arab dimension.

    In what pertains to the Syrian crisis, the Kingdom is resolute in its position and there is no longer any room to back down. The fact must be stressed that in the case where the Syrian regime is able to pass through its current crisis in any shape or form, the primary goal that it will pursue is taking revenge on the countries that stood against it, with the Kingdom and some of the countries of the Gulf coming at the top of the list. If we take into account the extent of this regime’s brutality and viciousness and its lack of hesitancy to resort to any means to realize its aims, then the situation will reach a high degree of danger for the Kingdom, which must seek by all means available and all possible ways to overthrow the current regime in Syria.

    As regards the international position, it is clear that there is a lack of “desire” and not a lack of “capability” on the part of Western countries, chief among them the United States, to take firm steps […]

    *[in the Arabic text: Russia, but this is a typo]

  • UK Produces "Dossier" To Prove Russian Motive In Skripal Poisoning, Russia Says UK Abducted Daughter

    The UK has proffered what they claim is evidence that Russia has had it out for former double-agent Sergei Skripal since at least 2013, and that Russia has been researching the effectiveness of spreading a nerve agent on door handles for assassination purposes, according to the BBC and the New York Times. The revelations are courtesy of Sir Mark Sedwill, Britain’s national security advisor, who detailed the declassified claims in a Friday letter to NATO. From the NYT:

    Mr. Sedwill’s letter, the most detailed account of British intelligence on the subject to be shared with the public to date, also reported that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia was “closely involved in the chemical weapons program” beginning in the mid-2000s.

    During that period, the letter claims, Russia was secretly developing the nerve agents known as Novichok that British officials say were used in the March 4 attack on Sergei V. Skripal and his daughter, Yulia, in the quiet cathedral city of Salisbury, England.

    Mr. Sedwill’s letter also said that Britain has evidence that Russian security services have been monitoring the Skripal family. Cyberspecialists from Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Services hacked Ms. Skripal’s email in 2013, the letter said. Asked about that at his news conference, Mr. Yakovenko responded sarcastically, “Big surprise.”

    The letter added that Russian intelligence services “view at least some of its defectors as legitimate targets for assassination.” –New York Times

    The letter also claims that “during the 2000s,” a special Russian unit began to develop chemical weapons specifically for state-sponsored attacks, and to “train personnel from special units in the use of these weapons.” 

    This program subsequently included investigation of ways of delivering nerve agents, including by application to door handles,” the letter also says.

    Meanwhile, “Russia believes Yulia Skripal has been abducted by Britain – and that the UK is faking sources in order to blame the Kremlin for her poisoning,” Sky News reported on Thursday after having spoken directly with Russia’s foreign ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova.

    We have zero information from officials in London about what is going on with her,” Zakharova told Sky News presenter Dermot Murnaghan in Moscow, adding “We have suspicions that she’s been abducted, held against her will.”

    “We just want to be sure that Yulia Skripal is actually better, that this is for real.”

    Yulia Skripal was found unconscious in a Salisbury park on March 4, along with her father, former Russian double-agent Sergei Skripal. The circumstances surrounding their poisoning – including the origin and delivery method of the Novichok nerve agent used on the pair has been the source of heated debate for over five weeks.

    Despite no formal investigation having been conducted (and a curious link between Sergei Skripal and former MI6 spy Christopher Steele having been revealed by The Telegraph), several nations consequently slapped Russia with sanctions under the presumption that they were responsible for the attempted assassinations. 

    Yulia cuts off her cousin

    While Yulia Skripal was in the hospital, she reportedly spoke with her Russian cousin Viktoria over the phone – a recording of which was broadcast by Russian television last Thursday in a conversation which the Rossiya 24 announcer emphasized was unverified.

    In the recording, Yulia can be heard telling Victoria that she and her father are healthy, and neither has suffered long-term health damage from the poisoning. British authorities maintained that only Yulia was conscious at the time and that her father was in “critical but stable” condition

    Viktoria Skripal, meanwhile, has repeatedly expressed doubts that Russia was behind the attack – suggesting, says the New York Times, that “bad fish” or an attack by the mother of Yulia Skripal’s boyfriend could have sickened the pair. 

    Relocating to America?

    Last weekend we covered a story from The Sunday Times about a rumor that Sergei and Yulia Skripal will likely be offered “a new life in America in an attempt to protect them from further murder attempts.”

    Intelligence officials at MI6 have had discussions with their counterparts in the CIA about resettling the victims of the Salisbury poisoning. “They will be offered new identities,” a senior Whitehall figure said.

    Security sources said Britain would want to ensure their safety by relocating them with one of the “five eyes” countries, the intelligence-sharing partnership that also includes America, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. –The Times

    The obvious place to resettle them is in America, because they’re less likely to be killed there and it’s easier to protect them there under a new identity,” an intelligence source familiar with the negotiations added. “There’s a preference for them to be resettled in a five-eyes nation because their case would have huge security implications.”

    Many are wondering how the pair survived exposure to one of the deadliest nerve agents on the planet, as a 1mm drop is the lethal dose – about the size of a small drop of rain. So far we’ve been told the Novichok was either smeared on a doorknob, at Sergi’s wife’s graveside, the air vents on Sergei’s BMW, and a “gift from friends” opened by Yulia at Zizi’s restaurant. Whatever the case, it also sickened 38 others

    Skripal, a former double agent who was imprisoned in Russia in 2006 after the Kremlin discovered he had been cooperating with British secret services since 1995. He was released and pardoned by then-president Dmitry Medvedev in 2010, and relocated to the UK as part of a spy swap. According to The TelegraphSkripal reportedly has ties to former MI6 agent Christopher Steele

    The Telegraph understands that Col Skripal moved to Salisbury in 2010 in a spy swap and became close to a security consultant employed by Christopher Steele, who compiled the Trump dossier. 

    The British security consultant, according to a LinkedIn social network account that was removed from the internet in the past few days, is also based in Salisbury.

    On the same LinkedIn account, the man listed consultancy work with Orbis Business Intelligence, according to reports. –The Telegraph

    The Telegraph‘s report implies that Skripal – still tied to Russian intelligence, could have been a source for some of the claims in the “Steele Dossier,” a 35-page document full of salacious and unverified claims about Donald Trump, which was paid for by Hillary Clinton and the DNC and arranged for by opposition research firm Fusion GPS.

    If Skripal was involved in the Steele dossier – it would greatly expand the list of who might want him to wake up dead. 

  • "Elon Knew": New Lawsuit Alleges Musk Knowingly Lied About Model 3 Production

    A new securities class action lawsuit filed in late March 2018, which names Elon Musk as a defendant, alleges that the Tesla CEO knew that the Model 3 was not going to be able to be produced as the rates he claimed – and that the company was not going to be able to meet production goals due to – get this – the production lines not even being assembled. The lawsuit alleges that this didn’t prevent Elon Musk from going out and telling the investing public otherwise, hence the allegation of securities fraud.

    First, the allegation that Musk was told by his own employees that the Model 3 couldn’t be mass produced by the end of 2017, which was the company’s stated goal:

    Then, after claiming in May 2017 that the company was “on track” to meet its mass production goal, it’s alleged the company hadn’t even finished building its production lines, clearly meaning it wasn’t “on track”. The lawsuit alleges that Musk knew the line was “way behind”:

    The suit alleges that the company was building Model 3’s by hand at a “pilot shop” at the same time Tesla claimed to be on track for “mass production”; it also claims that it was “evident to anyone who visited the facility” – including Elon Musk – that the line wasn’t built and that “construction workers were spending most of their shifts sitting around with nothing to do”:

    We also read in the lawsuit that Tesla’s Gigafactory, at the time in question, was allegedly capable of producing only one battery pack per day – and that the production of one battery pack took “two shifts” to complete.

    The suit alleges that the company’s former CFO, Jason Wheeler – who is one of more than 50 key executives and VPs to have left the company over the last half decade or so – told Elon Musk personally that they wouldn’t be able to mass produce by the end of 2017. The entire lawsuit is available at this link and some of the most interesting content was first shared by critics of the company on Twitter.

    The drumbeat of accountability for Elon Musk continues to pound louder and louder as each day progresses, with some analysts calling for the SEC to investigate him if the company doesn’t meet its stated cash flow positive and “no capital raise” guidance for the back end of 2018.

    Yesterday we detailed how the company is cutting corners with production and suppliers, as well as with its certified preowned vehicle program. Commentators continue to suggest that Elon musk should be held accountable by regulators if the company again raises capital this year or is not free cash flow positive by the second half of this year, two claims that Musk made this week in an angry outburst where he attacked the messenger (The Economist) for pointing out a Jefferies analysis.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Then, on Friday afternoon, CNBC released an scathing report detailing that a large portion of parts supplied to Tesla to manufacture vehicles with has been substandard or defective. The article alleged that:

    Tesla is struggling to manage and fix a significant volume of flawed or damaged parts from its suppliers, sending some to local machine shops for rework, according to several current and former Tesla engineers. The company said it also makes adjustments to the design of some parts after receiving them from suppliers.

    It continues: 

    All automakers have to deal with some amount of defective or damaged parts, both from their own factories and from suppliers. But, as previously reported, current and former employees say that Tesla experiences a higher rate of defects than industry norms. A significant number of flawed parts, and parts in need of design changes, also come from Tesla’s suppliers, they said.

    The reason for the large number of defective parts? Spending less time to vet suppliers, according to company employees. 

    Current and former employees from the company’s Fremont, Calif. and Sparks, Nevada factories blame Tesla for spending less time to vet suppliers than is typical in auto manufacturing. These people said the company failed to comprehensively test “variance specs” with some vendors before embarking on Model 3 production.

    Ultimately, it’s Tesla lack of experience and scramble to get a car to market that was leading to the pile up in defects, which will end up crushing the company’s “quality control” reputation, as the following episode suggests:

    Auto manufacturing expert Steve Finch, a former GM plant manager with about 40 years of industry experience, said automakers typically deal with some flawed parts from suppliers. Finch said that mass-market car companies normally will take a year or more to vet a prospective supplier. This is to ensure the supplier’s factory follows ISO quality management standards and other processes that are on par with the automaker’s own.

    Former and current employees said Tesla took less time before signing on new suppliers. Tesla employees tasked with vetting suppliers were also not always experienced with ISO quality management standards, said these people.

    We also pointed out yesterday that Tesla is starting to give other indications that it is stretched very thin – and that this leads to cutting certified pre-owned vehicle corners. Yesterday, Electrek wrote an article detailing ugly new changes to the company’s certified preowned checklist procedures, including the company no longer taking care of cosmetic details, which the article refers to as “refurbishing”:

    Now the company has updated its policy and some new cars coming on Tesla’s list of used vehicles have this ‘Not Refurbished’ warning that reads:

    “This car has passed a 70-point mechanical inspection and will be cleaned before delivery. If you would like any additional work that is not covered under your warranty, we can help arrange service after delivery for an added cost.”

    Tesla salespeople have been telling buyers that the automaker is still making sure that the vehicles are up to their standards for the warranty, but they are not fixing cosmetic issues anymore.

    Worst of all, these changes come a time where the company is about to receive a massive inflow of vehicle inventory from three-year leases that started in 2015:

    Tesla has changed its ‘certified pre-owned’ (used) vehicle policy this week to stop “refurbishing” its used cars just ahead of them receiving a big influx of vehicles as more 3-year leases are ending. The automaker had launched the program 3 years ago and it has been tuning it over the last two years.

    Previously, certified preowned Tesla vehicles not only underwent a inspection to check the mechanics and operation of the vehicle, but they also underwent a cosmetic clean up. The cosmetic cleanup always seemed like an absolute necessity, especially given the fact that Tesla buyers are actually unable to view pictures of the certified preowned vehicles that they’re purchasing:

    The cars with this new warning still don’t have real pictures of the actual vehicle, but instead only renderings of the vehicle’s configuration.

    Tesla told Electrek that they are soon going to make it easier to request real pictures of listed vehicles.

    The change comes as Tesla is getting more and more used vehicles, especially after 3-year leases from 2015 when Tesla started ramping up production significantly and also making strides with its leasing program.

    On top of that, the company is still selling these vehicles at premium prices, which the Elektrek article hilariously calls “value retention”:

    With the increased inventory and the lack of “refurbishing”, a decrease in price would be expected, but Tesla used vehicles have historically been very good at value retention.

    Regardless, the air – and questions – of accountability continues to get thicker around Elon Musk and his band of merry brothers.

    If the stock takes another dive next week, what is Mr. Musk going to come up with in order to keep a sense of being such trivial concerns as cash flow and profitability – and more importantly, how long will his lawyers let him keep talking?

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  • Why Trade Wars Will Unleash Central Banks

    Authored by Nomi Prins via The Daily Reckoning,

    There’s been an abundance of coverage surrounding the recent steel and aluminum tariffs. Those measures could hurt more sectors than they help within the U.S. In particular, it could damage businesses that require metals because they’ll have to pay more for raw materials.

    Trade wars also escalate geopolitical tensions and economic hardships the world over. They have in the past. When the U.S. imposed tariffs in the 1930’s to try to relieve the Great Depression at home, they achieved the opposite effect.

    A global trade war flared, governments became isolated and initiated defensive build-ups. The move ultimately resulted in lower production, reduced global trade and a prolonged international depression that gave rise to WWII.

    While the early Great Depression period in which President Hoover invoked harsh trade wars might be different than today, the threat of instability remains. What we saw then was a slowdown in the world economy that lead to regional aggressions and ultimately a world war.

    The major differences now are that we have central banks financing markets — and by extension a military buildup.

    Countries are better insulated today than they were in those days. By insulating themselves, they now have more choices about who their trading partners are, and what regional or multilateral agreements they enter.

    That’s one reason China is championing regional trade agreements throughout Asia and the Pacific Rim, and inked bi-lateral deals with Japan and the EU last year.  Those nations are growing less reliant on U.S. trade and, like good portfolio managers, are diversifying their trade partners.

    The U.S. tariffs will likely accelerate this trend.

    The tariffs, and super-regional build-ups, will also do something else. Trade wars will morph into an acceleration in global military spending. That’s because the tensions from trade wars have military ramifications.

    When government allies are less connected by interdependent economies, they are more likely to act on their own domestic needs.

    These divisions are potentially dangerous for the world. As major allies become untethered by mutual economic benefits, the world, from issues ranging from North Korea to Syria, continues to destabilize.

    Before President Trump announced his latest tariffs, Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), was asked about their impact on the global economy.

    He noted while the “immediate impact wouldn’t be large” referring to the economic impact, he warned also, “there is a certain worry, or concern, about the state of international relations… because if you put tariffs against what are your allies, one wonders who the enemies are.”

    It is true that Trump was targeting tariffs on places like China and South Korea, countries he believes are flooding the U.S. market with low-priced metals backed by government subsidies. Yet the fact remains that China accounts for less than 10% of all U.S. steel imports. That’s well behind U.S. import-heavy countries that are also allies, ranging from Canada and Mexico to NATO allies in the European Union.

    Peter Navarro, maybe the White House’s top trade adviser, told CNBC “we come in peace here.” But embedded in the very basic trade principal is a military provocation that cannot be ignored.

    The tariffs were characterized as necessary for national security reasons. As President Trump told a White House gathering of metals industry executives before he signed the tariff orders, “You’re going to have protection for the first time in a long time.”

    He meant two things by that, the more logical of which was really economic protection, colored in military terms.

    That’s why Mario Draghi’s position matters. By examining the real trade numbers among military allies in Europe and even Japan, the tariffs were clearly seen as economic protectionism, not as a security-related action.

    The tariffs will also harm U.S. exporters. Besides agricultural products like soybeans, China has announced tariffs against, the U.S. exports a massive amount of products that use steel including aircraft autos, appliances, and industrial machinery. By increasing the cost of metals used, these business will all face the issue of raising prices that hit the consumer.

    On the other side of the tariffs argument is the issue of what hitting imports would do domestically. What you would find is that even import taxes aimed at hitting other countries would cause a chain reaction where American metal producers could charge more to U.S. companies like Boeing Co., General Motors Co. and Whirlpool Corp.

    That behavior is even worse for smaller firms that could get hit by higher steel prices from both domestic producers and foreign producers.

    As trade issues push economies to the brink, central bankers are actively taking notice. While they may not be commenting on specific policy, they are offering a measured response. Trump’s protectionist policy has already caught the eye of his new chairman at the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell.

    In response to the tariffs, Powell said that “a system where goods and services flow freely is a net positive for many countries, though the benefits aren’t spread equally.”

    While Powell dodged commenting directly on trade wars, he did say that the “best approach is to deal directly with the people who are directly affected, rather than falling back on tariffs.”

    Perhaps that’s because he knows tariffs can have unintended consequences.

    If Powell really believed trade wars weren’t a source of concern, he wouldn’t have mentioned them at all. With markets move upwards of 700 points in any given direction on any given day when tariffs are headline news, the Fed can’t just watch as a sideline observer.

    You can bet that deep within the halls of the Fed they are developing a game plan to keep the markets from crashing if trade wars escalate.

    This is another reason to believe that trade wars will be met with cheap money policy. You can look at this as a financial see-saw of sorts. Trade wars, or even media soundbites about them, will spark negative markets reactions.

    That is why the Fed and other central banks will combat this with cheap words and even cheaper money policies.

    If the U.S. does jump into a hot trade war it could find itself needing to make up for the costs. The logical place to turn is to the beacon of more money creation from the Fed or to issue more debt.

    The Fed would be directly involved in order to keep the cost of debt from rising, again — which is why my analysis forecasts a return to Fed policies that keep rates low. Similarly, other major economies would also unleash their central bank money when needed.

    This type of tit-for-tat response is already playing out.

    Beijing has used its new wealth to attract friends, deter enemies, modernize its military, and aggressively assert its central bank into nearly any sector it believes requires assistance.

    This type of brinksmanship shows that it is only a matter of time before a trade war with China morphs into massive military build-up and competition.

  • Here's How The US Government Influences What Food You Eat

    Few Americans are aware of the extent to which the US government influences not just the price of their food – thanks to the massive subsidies the US Department of Agriculture disburses to America’s farmers – but also the contents of menus at restaurants and fast food chains.

    In a report published this week, Bloomberg explains how the USDA’s marketing arm helps farmer trade groups pressure fast food chains to add certain items to their menus. From mushrooms to blueberries, mandatory fees levied by the USDA help finance a cohort of industry lobbying groups that work closely with restaurants to push certain ingredients. These campaigns often have a powerful impact on farmers’ bottom lines: In March, Sonic – a fast casual burger chain – introduced two new burgers to its menu that both featured white button mushrooms: Instead of being 100% ground beef, these two burgers feature a blend of beef an processed mushrooms. The mixture dramatically lowers the calorie count of the burgers, satisfying customers’ demands for healthier alternatives, per Bloomberg.

    Grower

    What many don’t know, however, is that the introduction of these items was the result of a monthslong lobbying effort by the USDA funded Mushroom Council, a trade group that represents mushroom growers.

    The committee’s various lobbying efforts are already bearing fruit (pardon the pun): In the year ended Jan. 28, US sales of mushrooms grew by 4.9% to $1.24 billion compared with a years earlier. And much of this growth occurred before the 3,500 Sonic locations added the new menu items.

    But despite the fact that farmers get back $9 in sales for every dollar spent on marketing, according to a research study conducted by professors of agricultural economics at Texas A&M, some farmers have decided to sue the USDA to try and scrap these mandatory payments to the USDA.

    Grower

    Their argument? The marketing efforts benefit foreign and domestic farmers equally, and the marketing often doesn’t do enough to make clear that foods produced in the US are typically of a superior quality – at least, that’s what the farmers are arguing.

    In 2016, the Ranchers-Cattlemen Action Legal Fund, United Stockgrowers of America, a nonprofit that advocates for independent U.S. ranchers, filed a complaint arguing the required fees violate the First Amendment by forcing them to subsidize speech they don’t agree with. The group supports Utah Republican Senator Mike Lee’s legislation prohibiting mandatory checkoff fees.

    “We’re forced to pay and advertise foreign beef in the U.S.,” said Bill Bullard, chief executive officer of the Montana-based legal fund. “We have a superior product, and it’s coveted the world over.”

    Others are happy to pay the fees. Why? Because who could forget marketing campaigns like “Got Milk?” and the “Incredible Edible Egg”. These campaigns had a powerful act on the American consciousness, and also helped spur tremendous boosts in sales.

    In other words, farmers will readily pay the fee – if it can be demonstrated that they benefit from the campaigns, which often take years to successfully execute.

    A victory by a trade group representing blueberry farmers is another example of how the push to partner with US restaurant chains is proving to be a successful strategy.

    Recently, blueberries landed on the menu at steakhouse chain Sizzler USA Inc. in the form of a blueberry lemonade — considered a big win for the U.S. Highbush Blueberry Council, which worked on bringing the refreshment to the chain’s menu. Sizzler had 123 outlets as of last year, according to Technomic.

    Because the fruit isn’t in season during the winter, Mission Viejo, California-based Sizzler is getting them from Peru. In May, the company will add more blueberries, as part of a spinach salad with almonds and feta cheese.

    “Because the growers all pay into this fund, they want to know what the council is doing for them,” said Andrew Hunter, a chef who works with the mushroom, egg and blueberry marketing programs. “This is a tangible way for boards to say, ‘This is what we’re doing for you.’ Sizzler’s blueberry lemonade. That’s tangible.”

    In 2015, more than 8,000 chain restaurant locations added blueberries to their menus – including Dairy Queen, Wendy’s and Red Lobster. Another group funded by the USDA via these mandatory marketing fees claimed responsibility for this, citing a multiyear effort to court fast-food companies.

    And other campaigns are underway.

    The American Egg Board, working with ad agency BBDO Worldwide Inc., is relaunching its “Incredible Edible Egg” ad campaign from decades ago with a slightly modified tagline: “How do you like your eggs?” But the name has been shortened. It’s now “The Incredible Egg.”

    So next time you see a new food trending – think how millennials love avocado toast – don’t assume it happened organically. Somewhere along the line, a carefully crafted marketing campaign devised by one of these government-backed groups forced its messaging into your subconscious – often without you even knowing it.

  • The Deflation/Inflation Debate

    Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

    “Naïve inflationism demands an increase in the quantity of money without suspecting that this will diminish the purchasing power of the money.” ― Ludwig von mises,  The Theory of Money and Credit

    It is hardly surprising that with equity indices stalling, the financial community is increasingly worried that the long, steady bull market is coming to an end. Naturally, this makes investors look for reasons to worry, and it turns out that there are indeed many things to worry about.

    In fact, there are always things to worry about. Ever since the Lehman crisis, the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse have been casting long shadows across the financial stage. But as financial assets have continued to rise in value over the last nine years, bearish fund managers, spooked by systemic risks of one sort or another and the perennial threat of a renewed slump, have been forced to discard their ursine views.

    As often as not, it is not much more than a question of emphasis. There is always good news and bad news. As an investor, you semi-consciously choose what to believe.

    There are causes for concern, of that there is no doubt. Mostly, they arise from the consequences of earlier state interventions on the money side. Governments are slowly strangling private sector production with increasingly rapacious demands on taxpayers and have been resorting to the printing press to finance the shortfalls. In reality, there is a finite limit to government spending, because it impoverishes the tax base. Yet governments, with very few exceptions, seek to conceal this truism by increasing spending and budget deficits even more. In this, President Trump is not alone.

    Bankruptcy is the end result. And don’t believe the old saw about how governments can’t go bust. They can, and they do by destroying their currencies, as von Mises implied in the quote above. The naïve inflationists referred to by von Mises justify their stance by believing that inflation is invigorating, and deflation is devastating. Any and all statistics pointing to a slowdown in the growth of money supply or in the economy is therefore taken to be a forewarning of deflation.

    Inflationists are simply recycling Irving Fisher’s debt-deflation theory, which is no longer relevant. Fisher held that in an economic crisis, bad debts forced banks to liquidate collateral, pushing down collateral values. And as previously sound loans lose their collateral cover, banks are forced to liquidate those as well.

    But it is no longer the case. Central banks have removed the discipline of gold, so they can intervene to prevent financial and economic crises, rather than let them run their destructive courses. They have fully embraced inflationism, giving them the excuse for monetary and credit expansion as a cure-all.

    Therefore, when the next crisis occurs, central banks will take steps to ensure that in aggregate the quantity of money does not contract. It is the one forecast we can make with absolute certainty. And every time a crisis happens it takes more monetary heft to get out of it. But that’s not an issue for a central bank with two overriding objectives, not the targeting of inflation and unemployment as such, but to ensure a recession never happens, and to finance, through money-printing if necessary, escalating government spending.

    Minor wobbles are not the credit crisis

    We must discriminate between the momentary problems faced by central banks and the inevitable crisis at the end of the credit cycle. Dealing with problems as they arise has become routine, the justification for continual inflationism. The credit crisis is a different matter. Central bankers do not seem to realise it, but the credit crisis is their own creation, the way markets eventually unwind the distortions created by earlier monetary policy. So long as central banks suppress interest rates and expand money and credit, there will be periodic credit crises to follow.

    The trigger for the credit crisis is always the same. The general price level threatens to rise uncontrollably, reflecting the loss of the currency’s purchasing power. This forces the central bank to reluctantly raise interest rates to the point where business assumptions about the returns on capital, based on borrowing costs, turn from profit-making to loss-making. At that point, if not before, the accumulated mountain of debt becomes fatally undermined.

    The timing of the rise and level of interest rates that triggers the crisis is set by the speed with which monetary inflation feeds into prices. And the severity of the crisis depends upon the size of the debt mountain being liquidated.

    This has nothing to do with the minor wobbles along the way. Ahead of a cyclical credit crisis, central banks routinely deal with the fires breaking out in an increasingly desolate economic landscape. They are very good at it. The share prices of European banks, such as Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse raise concerns over systemic risk, but the ECB and SNB will always ensure credit is available to them. And if we are worried about systemic risk in key European financial behemoths, why is it that stock prices for major US banks such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America are so strong?

    There is also a narrative being promoted which posits that a slowdown in broad money supply is giving an advance warning of recession. The chart below, of US M2 plotted weekly, puts it into context.

    Yes, there has been a recent slowdown in the rate at which M2 is growing. But it has hardly diverged much from the average rate of increase, shown by the black line, for the last five years. And it’s not worth repeating the chart for M1 Money Stock, which is remarkably similar, despite the Fed reducing the size of its balance sheet.

    How bank credit is used is rarely questioned

    What charts of money supply do not tell us is where money is deployed between two groups of borrowers. Newly created money, mainly bank credit, is allocated either into the financial sector, which is not included in GDP excepting fees and commissions, or into non-financial activities, where goods and services are included. Furthermore, missing from GDP is all the intermediate business-to-business activity that goes towards manufacturing and delivering the goods and services included in GDP. And it is B2B which borrows to invest.

    It is only when extra money is allocated through the markets to the production of items in the consumer price index that price inflation is recorded. However, we cannot know how new money is allocated and reallocated between the arbitrary divisions set by statisticians. Attempts to marry up changes in broad money with demand for it are never convincing.

    But as proxy for non-financial business activity away from the world of big corporates, the following chart appears to confirm that ordinary businesses are just getting on with commercial life and have been for the last six years, though you wouldn’t know it from the financial headlines.

    Again, we see that following the great financial crisis, ordinary businesses making and doing things for ordinary people, just get on with investing in production. But there is an interesting observation here, highlighted on the chart: in the first few months of every year, almost no extra loans and leases are taken out, so the sideways trend in M2 from early-January may be nothing to worry about. Furthermore, taking this seasonality into account, it appears that demand for loans and leases so far this year is stronger than in any of the previous five years.

    Investment strategists examine statistical trends to discern turning points in stocks and bonds, when the wealth creation and destruction from bull and bear markets could be the driving force for these statistical trends, having little to do with the economy itself. In this context, our next chart shows the build-up of margin debt in the financial sector, and how it has become sufficiently large to be potentially destabilising.

    The point at which a fall in outstanding margin debt flashes warning signals for the equity market is one thing, but it is unlikely to destabilise the non-financial economy on its own. It is worth noting that it fell $21bn in February, and presumably more in March, yet to be reported. While some of this finance is by brokers acting as shadow banks, reductions in loans on securities are bound to be reflected in a slowdown in the rate of growth of bank lending. But no such distinction is made by financial scribblers, attributing all changes in money supply to demand in the non-financial economy.

    Another statistic worrying the scribblers is the LIBOR-OIS spread, which has suddenly increased. This is the difference between the unsecured wholesale money market lending rate in London and the overnight index swap rate, which is a derivative that is effectively tied to the risk-free interest rate. The spread is therefore normally taken as an indication of bank lending risks.

    The explanation for this spread increasing is unknown, with few signs of lending stress apparent. One could point to the share price performance of systemically important European banks, such as Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse, which suggests there is greater counterparty risk in London’s money markets than in New York. But if that’s the case, central banks will be monitoring the position closely and ready to intervene if required.

    It is perhaps more likely that tax changes in the US are encouraging US corporations to transfer dollar funds from banks in London to New York, which is bound to increase dollar rates in London, where LIBOR is set, compared with New York.

    How the credit cycle progresses

    Investors trying to understand the financial markets’ major trends should keep an eye on the credit cycle. The first point to note is that it is now nine years since the last credit crisis ended, and there are, as yet, no signs economic growth is over. However, as the cycle progresses, history and monetary theory tell us that interest rates begin to rise from the artificially suppressed levels set by central banks. That is now happening, leading us into the final phase of the credit cycle before the credit crisis finally ends it.

    Bond markets have all peaked, and their yields are rising, and not only at the short end where prices are corelated with interest rates. The 10-year US Treasury yield bottomed at 1.46% in June 2016, since when it has increased to 2.79% currently. The 30-year UST yield bottomed at the same time at 2.182%, and now yields 3.02%. The bond bear market is firmly established.

    Generally, the rise in medium and long-term bond yields anticipates increasing prices for commodities, goods and services, the consequence of earlier monetary expansion. Business conditions then appear to be improving, and equity markets have reflected this benign environment.

    It is becoming clear that a further jump in bond yields will confirm the end of an equity bull market, and the beginning of a bear market. But that will not mark the end of the current phase of the credit cycle and the onset of the crisis. Even if equities have a 1987-type crash, the credit cycle will continue, rather than enter the crisis phase.

    The concluding phase of credit expansion before the credit crisis is now about to begin. Demand will appear to be picking up while prices are rising and interest rates still low. It will be characterised by a growing belief among businessmen that they must borrow to invest. We can already anticipate the factors leading up to this happy but brief state.

    President Trump has cut taxes and increased spending. The result is there will be a substantial injection into the US economy late in the business cycle, mostly financed by monetary inflation. It is bound to create short-term optimism but being based on money created out of thin air it will be an illusion. The consequence will be an acceleration of price inflation, as the extra money is absorbed into the non-financial economy. Bond markets will anticipate higher interest rates, so banks, losing money on their bond investments, will then compete for loan business in the non-financial economy. For a brief period, buoyed up by a business-friendly fiscal policy, the economy will appear to grow more rapidly.

    The rise in prices, initially seen by business as a stimulant to production while borrowing costs remain suppressed by the Fed, will accelerate fuelled by too much money chasing too few goods. However, the business environment will only appear to be improved during the time period taken for the economy to absorb monetary inflation and reflect it in higher prices. When it dawns on markets that next year’s prices will be significantly higher than today’s the time-preference value on loans will be increasing, irrespective of the Fed’s monetary policy.

    The crisis will then be upon us. The switch from stimulative fiscal policies to sharply escalating interest rates and bond yields could be sudden. At the worst possible time, the Fed will be forced to raise the Fed Funds Rate to protect a declining dollar. If they haven’t begun to do so already, financial assets will be crashing, along with physical assets whose values are set by interest rates, such as residential property.

    America is not alone in its stimulation of markets. Interest rates are also suppressed in the Eurozone, Japan, Britain and Switzerland, all of which stand to benefit from China’s economic evolution. Those economists who in recent weeks have proclaimed that at last synchronised growth is here do not realise that the inflationary consequences for prices brings the global credit crisis forward in time.

    So, that’s the sequence. Bonds top out, followed by equities, followed by a credit crisis. We have had the first, perhaps entered the second, and have the third event still ahead of us. And if the evidence before our eyes is not enough, we have proof of central bankers’ ignorance in these matters from Janet Yellen, who in her swansong said, “Would I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis? You know, probably that would be going too far but I do think we’re much safer and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don’t believe it will be.”

    Hubris indeed, reminding us of Greenspan’s “Irrational exuberance” in December 1996, before the Dow nearly doubled, and his conversion to the New Paradigm of Larry Summers et al in 2000, just before the dot-com bubble burst. It is proof that those who have taken it upon themselves to protect us from our own financial indiscretions are clueless about the credit cycle, and their role in its creation. But will it result in a massive deflation?

    If by deflation is meant an increase in the dollar’s purchasing power, the answer must be an emphatic No. As well as the views of central bankers, that deflation must be avoided at all costs, even a mild recession plays havoc with government finances. This is why the Fed and other central banks will do everything in their power to stop it. But their power is confined to the cure-alls of reducing interest rates and throwing yet more money at the economy.

    Far from deflation, the Fed’s only response to the next credit crisis will be to take measures that will lead to the final destruction of the dollar. Other central banks are set to follow. Deflationists don’t have a leg to stand on, and unknowingly conform with von Mises’s description of naïve inflationists.

  • Trump's Next-Generation Presidential Limousine Unveiled

    The next generation of Presidential limousines called ‘the Beast,’ built for President Trump, is set to be unveiled in the second half of 2018. When Trump was sworn in as the 45th U.S. President, the United States Secret Service wheeled him throughout Washington in a presidential limousine fleet from the Barack Obama era.

    A Fox News source close to the matter indicates Trump would be getting all-new Cadillac-branded models by the summer months.

    The new presidential limousine was photographed on public roads near GM’s proving grounds in Michigan last fall. (KGP Photography/FoxNews)

    The prototype is covered in a black and white camouflage wrap to hide its styling details until its official unveiling. (KGP Photography/FoxNews)

    The prototypes of the Cadillac-branded presidential limousine are part of a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) agreement with General Motors Llc. to build “the next generation parade limousine program phase 2 and 3,” which began in September of 2014. Three years later and some $15,800,765 later, it seems like Trump’s new limousines are ready for use.

    The heavily armored $1.5 million Cadillac-branded state car, which comes complete with five-inch thick military grade armor, a bomb-proof exterior, kevlar-reinforced wheels, and a vast array of embedded weapons — has been turned over to the United States Secret Service for the final examination.

    “We’ve completed our task and we’ve handed over the vehicle to the customer,” Cadillac President Johann de Nysschen told Fox News. A spokeswoman for the U.S. Secret Service added that “the program to build and deploy the next generation of Presidential limousines is on track and on schedule — both in terms of vendor production and internal Secret Service post production requirements. The public can expect to see the new vehicles put into operational use late summer of this year.”

    Although its designed to look like a sedan, it’s understood to be built on a sturdy truck frame that can support its armored bodywork. (KGP Photography/FoxNews)

    The sedan is longer than two large SUVs and, for the moment, remains in white and black camouflage designed to make it more difficult to identify new features aboard the vehicle. It is pictured here, middle, in March 2018. (Chris Doane/Daily Mail)

    Fox News believes Trump’s next generation limousine will resemble a stretched 2018 Cadillac CT6.

    “One feature it almost certainly won’t share with the CT6 is Cadillac’s semi-autonomous Super Cruise system, which allows for hands-free driving on highways. Instead, it will always be driven by a highly trained agent skilled in defensive and evasive driving techniques.

     

    Cadillac has built every presidential limousine since 1993 and didn’t face any known competition for this contract. Its American luxury counterparts, Lincoln and Chrysler, each told Fox News that they declined to submit bids this time around, but de Nysschen considers his company’s role helping to chauffer the world’s most powerful man around the world an important association for the brand.”

    “The public can expect to see the new vehicles put into operational use late summer of this year,” said the United States Secret Service.

    How has Twitter responded to Trump’s tricked out Cadillac?

    “I think Trump should keep the camo on his new limo,” said one Twitter user.

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    “Lots of talk today about Trumps new limo. Supposedly comes with vanity plates too,” someone else said.

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    “Trumps new limo looks absolutely fucking ridiculous. And by ridiculous, fucking badass!!!! Greatest president ever!!!,” exclaimed one Twitter user.

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    Great question…

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    Trump revamped the presidential limo into a Caddy built like a tank. Fricken boss,” another Twitter said.

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    Trump’s long-awaited heavily armored limo is set to roll out on the streets of Washington in a matter of months. The one question we ask: Will it be featured in his military parade set for Veterans Day?

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