Today’s News 7th December 2016

  • Power To The People: John Lennon's Legacy Lives On

    Submitted by John Whitehead via The Rurtherford Institute,

    “You gotta remember, establishment, it’s just a name for evil. The monster doesn’t care whether it kills all the students or whether there’s a revolution. It’s not thinking logically, it’s out of control.”—John Lennon (1969)

    Militant nonviolent resistance works.

    Peaceful, prolonged protests work.

    Mass movements with huge numbers of participants work.

    Yes, America, it is possible to use occupations and civil disobedience to oppose government policies, counter injustice and bring about change outside the confines of the ballot box.

    It has been done before. It is being done now. It can be done again.

    For example, in May of 1932, more than 43,000 people, dubbed the Bonus Army—World War I veterans and their families—marched on Washington, set up tent cities in the nation's capital, and refused to leave until the government agreed to pay the bonuses they had been promised as a reward for their services. Eventually their efforts not only succeeded in securing payment of the bonuses but contributed to the passage of the G.I. Bill of Rights.

    Similarly, the Civil Rights Movement mobilized hundreds of thousands of people to strike at the core of an unjust and discriminatory society. Likewise, while the 1960s anti-war movement began with a few thousand perceived radicals, it ended with hundreds of thousands of protesters, spanning all walks of life, demanding the end of American military aggression abroad.

    Most recently, after months of protests over the construction of a pipeline that members of the Sioux tribe insisted would harm their water supply, the Army Corp of Engineers has agreed to look for an alternate route for the Dakota Access Pipeline to cross under Lake Oahe in North Dakota.

    This kind of “power to the people” activism—grassroots, populist and potent—is exactly the brand of civic engagement John Lennon advocated throughout his career as a musician and anti-war activist.

    It’s been 36 years since Lennon was gunned down by an assassin’s bullet on December 8, 1980, but his legacy and the lessons he imparted in his music and his activism have not diminished over the years.

    All of the many complaints we have about government today – surveillance, militarism, corruption, harassment, SWAT team raids, political persecution, spying, overcriminalization, etc. – were present in Lennon’s day and formed the basis of his call for social justice, peace and a populist revolution.

    Little wonder, then, that the U.S. government saw him as enemy number one.

    Because he never refrained from speaking truth to power, Lennon became a prime example of the lengths to which the U.S. government will go to persecute those who dare to challenge its authority.

    Lennon was the subject of a four-year campaign of surveillance and harassment by the U.S. government (spearheaded by FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover), an attempt by President Richard Nixon to have him “neutralized” and deported. As Adam Cohen of the New York Times points out, “The F.B.I.’s surveillance of Lennon is a reminder of how easily domestic spying can become unmoored from any legitimate law enforcement purpose. What is more surprising, and ultimately more unsettling, is the degree to which the surveillance turns out to have been intertwined with electoral politics.”

    Years after Lennon’s assassination, it would be revealed that the FBI had collected 281 pages of surveillance files on him. As the New York Times notes, “Critics of today’s domestic surveillance object largely on privacy grounds. They have focused far less on how easily government surveillance can become an instrument for the people in power to try to hold on to power. ‘The U.S. vs. John Lennon’ … is the story not only of one man being harassed, but of a democracy being undermined.”

    Such government-directed harassment was nothing new.

    The FBI has had a long history of persecuting, prosecuting and generally harassing activists, politicians, and cultural figures, most notably among the latter such celebrated names as folk singer Pete Seeger, painter Pablo Picasso, comic actor and filmmaker Charlie Chaplin, comedian Lenny Bruce and poet Allen Ginsberg. Among those most closely watched by the FBI was Martin Luther King Jr., a man labeled by the FBI as “the most dangerous and effective Negro leader in the country.”

    In Lennon’s case, the ex-Beatle had learned early on that rock music could serve a political end by proclaiming a radical message. More importantly, Lennon saw that his music could mobilize the public and help to bring about change. However, while Lennon believed in the power of the people, he also understood the danger of a power-hungry government. “The trouble with government as it is, is that it doesn’t represent the people,” observed Lennon. “It controls them.”

    Unfortunately, Lennon’s time as a troublemaker was short-lived.

    Mark David Chapman was waiting in the shadows on Dec. 8, 1980, just as Lennon was returning to his New York apartment building.

    As Lennon stepped outside the car to greet the fans congregating outside, Chapman called out, “Mr. Lennon!” Lennon turned and was met with a barrage of gunfire as Chapman emptied his .38-caliber pistol and pumped four hollow-point bullets into his back and left arm.

    John Lennon was pronounced dead on arrival at the hospital.

    Much like Martin Luther King Jr., John F. Kennedy, Malcolm X, Robert Kennedy and others who have died attempting to challenge the powers-that-be, Lennon had finally been “neutralized.”   

    Still, you can’t murder a movement with a bullet and a madman: Lennon’s legacy lives on in his words, his music and his efforts to speak truth to power.

    Unfortunately, Lennon’s work to change the world for the better is far from done.

    Peace remains out of reach. Activism and whistleblowers continue to be prosecuted for challenging the government’s authority. Militarism is on the rise, all the while the governmental war machine continues to wreak havoc on innocent lives.

    For those of us who joined with John Lennon to imagine a world of peace, it’s getting harder to reconcile that dream with the reality of the American police state. And as I point out in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, those who do dare to speak up are labeled dissidents, troublemakers, terrorists, lunatics, or mentally ill and tagged for surveillance, censorship or, worse, involuntary detention.

    As Lennon shared in a 1968 interview:

    I think all our society is run by insane people for insane objectives… I think we’re being run by maniacs for maniacal means. If anybody can put on paper what our government and the American government and the Russian… Chinese… what they are actually trying to do, and what they think they’re doing, I’d be very pleased to know what they think they’re doing. I think they’re all insane. But I’m liable to be put away as insane for expressing that. That’s what’s insane about it.”

    So what’s the answer?

    Lennon had a multitude of suggestions.

    “If everyone demanded peace instead of another television set, then there’d be peace.”

    “Peace is not something you wish for; It’s something you make, Something you do, Something you are, And something you give away.”

    And my favorite advice of all: “All you need is love. Love is all you need.”

  • Milo Yiannopoulos Told Not to Speak of “Pizzagate” During Miami University Lecture

    Submitted by Joseph Jankowski of PlanetFreeWill.com

    During the introduction to his lecture at Miami University on Monday, Breitbart News journalist and technology editor Milo Yiannopoulos informed the crowd that he was unable to address the highly controversial topic of “Pizzagate” because he had received phone calls from Washington D.C. that told him “not yet.”

    “We are going to talk this evening about a few things that are close to my heart,” Milo told his audience. “Although, I have one announcement to make which is that sadly when I announced I was going to be speaking about Pizzagate this evening, I got a number of phone calls with Washington D.C. area codes saying ‘not yet.’”

    For those unfamiliar, Pizzagate is a wildly-popular conspiracy theory that centers around leaked emails from former Hillary Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta that some believe contain pedophilic lingo.

    “Pizzagate subreddit was started by a group of Trump-supporting internet sleuths who were attempting to use WikiLeaks’ leaked Podesta emails to connect the Clintons and John Podesta to the convicted sex offender, Jeffrey Epstein,” Zero Hedge wrote of Pizzagate. “That said, when the Podesta emails failed to reveal a “smoking gun” linkage, the sleuths instead turned their focus to mulitple “pizza” references in Podesta’s emails which then led to the speculation that those “pizza” references must be code for something far more sinister.”

    The Washington Post says the “Pizzagate” sleuths are convinced that the “secret headquarters of a child sex-trafficking ring run by Hillary Clinton and members of her inner circle” is located in the basement of a Washington D.C. pizza shop called Comet Ping Pong Pizzeria.

    Yiannopoulos put out a flyer for his Miami speech on Monday afternoon which advertised that he would be addressing the conspiracy theory.

    “I can tell you with no ego, this will be my finest show,” Milo wrote on his Facebook page.

    It is currently unknown who called Milo and told him not to discuss the Pizzagate controversy but it might have something to do with the incident that occurred on Sunday when a man walked into Comet Ping Pong with a gun.

    The man told police he had come to the restaurant to “self-investigate” the “Pizzagate” conspiracy.

    Reports claim that Comet Ping Pong’s owner, James Alefantis, and his employees have been victims of continuous harassment from those exploring the theory that connects the pizza shop to child sex-trafficking.

    Surrounding businesses have also said that they have been targeted by believers in the conspiracy theory.

    While many of the sleuths say that their research as led them to believe that “Pizzagate” is real and not just some wild theory, there are some people who believe it has gone too far and now has become dangerous.

  • Google Searches For "Conservative Outreach Manager" After Failing To Elect Hillary

    After failing miserably in their effort to elect Hillary on November 8th, Google has decided it’s time to hire a “Conservative Outreach Manager.”  You know your bias is deeply ingrained when you have to create a brand new “outreach” position just to figure out how to speak to people on the other side of the aisle.

    Google

     

    Per the job listing posted to the Google Careers website, the new “Conservative Outreach Manager” would act as a “liaison to conservative, libertarian and
    free market groups.”

    As a member of Google’s Public Policy team, you help shape various product and issue agendas with policy makers inside and outside government. In addition, you will help advise our internal teams on the public policy implications of their products, working with a closely coordinated and cross-functional global team. The role requires significant experience either working with or in government, politics or a regulatory agency as well as an ability to grasp complex technical and policy issues.

     

    As a member of Google’s Public Policy outreach team, you will act as Google’s liaison to conservative, libertarian and free market groups. You are part organizer, part advocate and part policy wonk as you understand the world of third-party non-governmental advocacy organizations. You are eager to represent Google among those organizations. You can work a room, tell Google’s story in an elevator or from a podium and work with partner organizations on shared projects to advance Google’s public policy goals.

    Of course, it’s not terribly surprising that Google was ill-prepared to work with a Trump administration since WikiLeaks revealed the company was all-in with the Hillary campaign…a revelation which was subsequently confirmed when Google Chairman, Eric Schmidt, was spotted at Hillary’s Election Night “party” wearing a staff badge.

    Eric

     

    Somehow we suspect the “Conservative Outreach Manager” won’t be as effective at pushing Google’s policies with the Trump administration as Schmidt would have been with Hillary…Oh well, time to start building a relationship with Joe Biden.

    * * *

    For those who missed it, here is what we previously wrote about Schmidt’s “secret strategic plan” to get Hillary elected.

    Among the latest set of Podesta releases, was the following email sent on April 15, 2014 by Google’s Eric Schmidt titled “Notes for a 2016 Democratic Campaign” in which the Google/Alphabet Chairman tells Cheryl Mills that “I have put together my thoughts on the campaign ideas and I have scheduled some meetings in the next few weeks for veterans of the campaign to tell me how to make these ideas better.  This is simply a draft but do let me know if this is a helpful process for you all.

     

    While there are numerous curious nuances in the plan, presented below in its entirety, the one section that caught our – and Wikileaks’ attention – is the following which implicitly suggests Google planned the creation of a voter tracking database, using smart phones:

    Key is the development of a single record for a voter that aggregates all that is known about them.  In 2016 smart phones will be used to identify, meet, and update profiles on the voter.  A dynamic volunteer can easily speak with a voter and, with their email or other digital handle, get the voter videos and other answers to areas they care about (“the benefits of ACA to you” etc.)

    As a reminder, two days ago it was revealed that just days prior to the April 15, 2014 email, Schmidt had sent another email in which he expressed his eagerness to “fund” the campaign efforts and wants to be a “head outside advisor.” In the email from John Podesta to Robby Mook we learned that:

    I met with Eric Schmidt tonight. As David reported, he’s ready to fund, advise recruit talent, etc. He was more deferential on structure than I expected. Wasn’t pushing to run through one of his existing firms. Clearly wants to be head outside advisor, but didn’t seem like he wanted to push others out. Clearly wants to get going. He’s still in DC tomorrow and would like to meet with you if you are in DC in the afternoon. I think it’s worth doing. You around? If you are, and want to meet with him, maybe the four of us can get on t

    Another email from February 2015 suggested that the Google Chairman remained active in its collaboration with the Clinton campaign: John Podesta wrote that Eric Schmidt met with HR “about the business he proposes to do with the campaign. He says he’s met with HRC” and adds that “FYI. They are donating the Google plane for the Africa trip”

    The remainder of Schmidt’s proposed plan, presented in its entirety below, is just as troubling.

    Notes for a 2016 Democratic Campaign
    Eric Schmidt
    April 2014

    DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT

    Here are some comments and observations based on what we saw in the 2012 campaign.  If we get started soon, we will be in a very strong position to execute well for 2016.

    1. Size, Structure and Timing

    Lets assume a total budget of about $1.5Billion, with more than 5000 paid employees and million(s) of volunteers.  The entire startup ceases operation four days after November 8, 2016.  The structure includes a Chairman or Chairwoman who is the external face of the campaign and a President who is the executive in charge of objectives, measurements, systems and building and managing the organization.

    Every day matters as our end date does not change.  An official campaign right after midterm elections and a preparatory team assembled now is best.

    2. Location

    The campaign headquarters will have about a thousand people, mostly young and hardworking and enthusiastic.  Its important to have a very large hiring pool (such as Chicago or NYC) from which to choose enthusiastic, smart and low paid permanent employees.  DC is a poor choice as its full of distractions and interruptions.  Moving the location from DC elsewhere guarantees visitors have taken the time to travel and to help.

    The key is a large population of talented people who are dying to work for you.  Any outer borough of NYC, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Boston are all good examples of a large, blue state city to base in.

    Employees will relocate to participate in the campaign, and will find low cost temporary housing or live with campaign supporters on a donated basis.  This worked well in Chicago and can work elsewhere.

    The computers will be in the cloud and most likely on Amazon Web services (AWS).  All the campaign needs are portable computers, tablets and smart phones along with credit card readers.

    3. The pieces of a Campaign

    a) The Field

    Its important to have strong field leadership, with autonomy and empowerment.  Operations talent needs to build the offices, set up the systems, hire the people, and administer what is about 5000 people.  Initial modeling will show heavy hiring in the key battleground states.  There is plenty of time to set these functions up and build the human systems.  The field is about organizing people, voter contact, and get out the vote programs.

    For organizing tools, build a simple way to link people and activities as a workflow and let the field manage the system, all cloud based.  Build a simple organizing tool with a functioning back-end.  Avoid deep integration as the benefits are not worth it.  Build on the cloud.  Organizing is really about sharing and linking people, and this tool would measure and track all of it.

    There are many other crucial early investments needed in the field: determining the precise list of battleground states, doing early polling to confirm initial biases, and maintaining and extending voter protection programs at the state level.

    b) The Voter

    Key is the development of a single record for a voter that aggregates all that is known about them.  In 2016 smart phones will be used to identify, meet, and update profiles on the voter.  A dynamic volunteer can easily speak with a voter and, with their email or other digital handle, get the voter videos and other answers to areas they care about (“the benefits of ACA to you” etc.)

    The scenario includes a volunteer on a walk list, encountering a potential voter, updating the records real time and deepening contact with the voter and the information we have to offer.

    c) Digital

    A large group of campaign employees will use digital marketing methods to connect to voters, to offer information, to use social networks to spread good news, and to raise money.  Partners like Blue State Digital will do much of the fund raising.  A key point is to convert BSD and other partners to pure cloud service offerings to handle the expected crush and load.

    d) Media (paid), (earned) and (social), and polling

    New tools should be developed to measure reach and impact of paid, earned and social media.  The impact of press coverage should be measurable in reach and impact, and TV effectiveness measured by attention and other surveys. 

    Build tools that measure the rate and spread of stories and rumors, and model how it works and who has the biggest impact.  Tools can tell us about the origin of stories and the impact of any venue, person or theme.  Connect polling into this in some way. 

    Find a way to do polling online and not on phones.

    e) Analytics and data science and modeling, polling and resource optimization tools

    For each voter, a score is computed ranking probability of the right vote.  Analytics can model demographics, social factors and many other attributes of the needed voters.  Modeling will tell us what who we need to turn out and why, and studies of effectiveness will let us know what approaches work well.    Machine intelligence across the data should identify the most important factors for turnout, and preference.

    It should be possible to link the voter records in Van with upcoming databases from companies like Comcast and others for media measurement purposes.

    The analytics tools can be built in house or partnered with a set of vendors.

    f) Core engineering, voter database and contact with voters online

    The database of voters (NGP Van) is a fine starting point for voter records and is maintained by the vendor (and needs to be converted to the cloud).  The code developed for 2012 (Narwahl etc.) is unlikely to be used, and replaced by a model where the vendor data is kept in the Van database and intermediate databases are arranged with additional information for a voter.

    Quite a bit of software is to be developed to match digital identities with the actual voter file with high confidence.  The key unit of the campaign is a “voter”, and each and every record is viewable and updatable by volunteers in search of more accurate information.

    In the case where we can’t identify the specific human, we can still have a partial digital voter id, for a person or “probable-person” with attributes that we can identify and use to target.  As they respond we can eventually match to a registered voter in the main file.  This digital key is eventually matched to a real person.

    The Rules

    Its important that all the player in the campaign work at cost and there be no special interests in the financing structure.  This means that all vendors work at cost and there is a separate auditing function to ensure no one is profiting unfairly from the campaign.  All investments and conflicts of interest would have to be publicly disclosed.  The rules of the audit should include caps on individual salaries and no investor profits from the campaign function.  (For example, this rule would apply to me.)

    The KEY things

    a) early build of an integrated development team and recognition that this is an entire system that has to be managed as such
    b) decisions to exclusively use cloud solutions for scalability, and choice of vendors and any software from 2012 that will be reused.
    c) the role of the smart phone in the hands of a volunteer.  The smart phone manages the process, updates the database, informs the citizen, and allows fundraising and recruitment of volunteers (on android and iphone).
    d) early and continued focus of qualifying fundraising dollars to build the field, and build all the tools.  Outside money will be plentiful and perfect for TV use.  A smart media mix tool tells all we need to know about media placement, TV versus other media and digital media.

  • The Biggest Gold Heist Of All Time

    Submitted by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

    In 524 BC, a group of pirates set sail for Sifnos, an ancient Greek island famed for its vast gold and silver mines.

    The mines of Sifnos were unparalleled in the ancient world.

    They produced so much gold and silver that the local government at Sifnos could erect countless monuments, invest in new public works, and still easily have a substantial balance remaining at the end of each year to distribute to the citizens.

    When the pirates arrived, they robbed the island of 100 talents of gold, an unfathomable sum at the time.

    In the ancient world, a talent was a unit of weight equivalent to 26 kilograms, or about 836 troy ounces.

    So 100 talents of gold would be worth just shy of $100 million today, ranking that ancient robbery as one of the biggest heists in history.

    It’s amazing that thousands of years have passed, and yet that very same gold could still be traded in modern financial markets.

    There are few other assets on the planet that have had such a long history of value, durability, and marketability.

    Gold very clearly holds its value over time, whether over decades or millennia.

    Now, in fairness, it’s not like any of us is going to live for 2500+ years, so realistically it shouldn’t matter if our money will maintain its value until the year 4500.

    But gold has plenty of other benefits. For example, it’s also a type of insurance.

    If there’s ever a major problem with your home country’s currency or monetary system (which we’ve seen over the last several years from India to Iceland, Argentina to Zimbabwe) gold will maintain its value and survive the currency crisis.

    Owning some physical gold will ensure that you still have something of value in your pocket.

    This is an insurance policy that you hope you’ll never need. But if you ever do, you’ll be damn glad you have it.

    Another type of insurance policy we’ve discussed in this letter is physical cash.

    Most people keep the vast majority of their savings in a bank, and in normal times we can access this savings online, at ATMs, and in the checkout line with our debit cards.

    We view physical cash and bank balances as the same thing, i.e. $1 in a savings account is the same thing as a one-dollar bill with George Washington’s face on it.

    They’re not the same thing. These are actually two distinct forms of money, they just happen to have a 1:1 exchange rate right now.

    Your bank balance is nothing more than an accounting entry on a bank’s ledger.

    It’s a technically a claim– an amount that the bank owes you, one of its millions of unsecured creditors.

    And if there are ever any major problems at the bank, you’ll quickly see how worthless this claim can be.

    Think about what happened in Cyprus back in 2013. An entire nation woke up one morning and found out that the government had frozen every account at every bank in Cyprus.

    It turned out that the entire Cypriot financial system was near collapse, and the government cut people off from their funds in order to protect the banks.

    At that point, bank balances were fundamentally worthless. It didn’t matter how much money you had in the bank… you couldn’t do anything with it.

    But anyone who was holding physical cash could still buy food, fuel, and other necessities until the crisis subsided.

    The 1:1 exchange rate between cash and bank balances broke down, literally overnight.

    One day everything was normal. The next day, cash was far more valuable than anyone’s bank balance.

    This is why it makes sense to hold both– gold AND physical cash.

    It’s perfectly fine to stay optimistic and hope for the best. And there’s plenty to be optimistic about.

    But with bank insolvencies rising (especially in Europe) and a US debt level closing in on $20 trillion, does it make sense to bet everything you’ve ever worked for on hope and optimism?

    We insure ourselves against all sorts of risks.

    We have fire insurance in case our houses burn down. We have life insurance in case we have an early departure.

    Those risks may be extremely low. But they’re important enough that we spend money to protect ourselves against them.

    The systemic risks we’re talking about may also be low. (Though I would suggest the risks are much higher than anyone realizes…)

    But their impacts are extraordinary.

    Yet unlike conventional insurance, these policies, i.e. cash and gold, don’t really cost anything.

    Gold prices may fluctuate from day to day, but over the long-term, the metal holds its value. And it’s an asset that you’ll be able to sell, worldwide, in an instant.

    It’s the same with cash.

    With interest rates at historic lows and a checking account yielding 0.1%, there’s virtually no opportunity cost in holding some physical cash versus keeping all of your savings at the bank.

    These are no-brainer solutions with minimal (nearly zero) cost that provide time-tested insurance against some obvious risks.

  • Italian Government Prepares To Nationalize Monte Paschi

    The wait is almost over.

    After two previous taxpayer funded bailouts, and nearly five months of foreplay since the third largest Italian bank failed the latest European stress test at the end of July, in which the Italian government in September vow that “bailout for Italian banks has been ‘absolutely’ ruled out“, a third bailout, as we previewed earlier today, is now imminent.

    According to Reuters, which cites two sources, Italy is preparing to take a €2 billion controlling stake in Monte Paschi as the bank’s hopes of a private funding rescue have faded after a fruitless five month search to secure an anchor investor, following Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s decision to quit.

    The government, which is already the ailing bank’s single largest shareholder with a four percent share, is planning do a debt-for-equity swap, and buy junior bonds held by ordinary Italians to take the stake up to 40%, the sources said. The bonds would then be equitized, converting the government’s bond stake into pure equity ownership, a troubling approach as it would effectively wipe out the existing equity tranche and position the bank for a potential bankruptcy fight in court where the government faces off with the equity committee.

    This transaction would make the government by far the biggest shareholder, meaning the Treasury would be able to control Italy’s third biggest bank and its shareholder meetings, or in other words, the bank would be nationalized.

    The sources said a government decree authorizing the deal, which would see the state buy the subordinated bonds from retail investors and convert them into shares, could be rushed through as early as this weekend. Italy’s treasury would buy the bonds held by around 40,000 retail investors at face value, the sources said.

    It is unclear how the senior bondholders, who would not be made whole would feel about a government transaction which favors the juniors (who would get par) where the bulk of the retail investors are found, would feel about such a transaction which would bring memories of the US government’s “bailout” of GM which flipped the bankruptcy process on its head by prioritizing junior pensioners over senior creditors.

    That way the transaction is structure, the government would ensure retail investors do not suffer any losses in the bank’s bailout, making it politically more palatable and staving off the risk of a run on deposits that could trigger a wider banking crisis.

    The bank, which needs to raise €5 billion by the end of December or risk winding down, is set to raise 1 billion euros from a bond swap with institutional investors and Rome is hoping the 2 billion euros participation from the government could help persuade private investors to fill the 2 billion euros gap. Since any new equity investors would come in as the equivalent of post-petition equity, it would mean that existing equityholders, already a token amount, would be wiped out.

    “It’s a de-facto nationalization with a strong presence by the state that can attract other investors and allow the transaction to be completed,” said one of the sources, speaking on condition of anonymity.

    There is another problem: in the past both Merkel and Schauble, not to mention Djisselbloem, have made it expressly clear that a bail-in mechanism should be used to preserve insolvent banks, and a state-funded and taxpayer backed bailout/nationalization is no longer permitted. Allowing Italy to proceed with this transaction would make a mockery of Europe’s entire “bail-in” protocol, not to mention the European finance ministers’ resolve and ability to implement anything, which is why the European Commission would need to assess whether the government’s intervention is taking place at market prices or if it constitutes state aid, another source said.

    However, since an Italian contagion wave would inevitably slam Deutsche Bank and Germany’s various other banks, Europe will find the deal to be “whatever it needs it to be, to make it possible.

    Monte dei Paschi, rated the weakest lender in European stress tests this summer, had planned to arrange a private rescue, starting with a firm commitment from one or more anchor investors and then launching a share sale this week.

    There is still some hope for a private rescue without a government intervention, but that is evaporating by the hour.  According to Reuters, the chances of the privately backed deal going ahead as planned were now slim. A source close to Qatar’s cash-rich sovereign wealth fund said it could inject €1.4 billion in the bank but wanted to wait to see what kind of government would succeed Renzi. Other sources were more cautious on Qatar’s willingness to back the deal.

    Monte Paschi’s bank’s chief executive, Marco Morelli, held talks with European Central Bank officials in Frankfurt on Tuesday to review its options. A meeting of the bank’s board is likely to take place on Wednesday. At that point it is likely to greenlight the first major European bank bailout in a year in which the G-20 leader previously declared that the global economy is fixed and is now reflating itself back to growth.

  • Is Janet Yellen Sabotaging The Trump Administration?

    Submitted by Dennis E. Miller,

    Is Janet Yellen trying to screw Donald Trump?

    No, I’m not asking for possible titles to a porn movie (“Trump Gets Janet Yellin’” or “Trump Puts Down Ol’ Yellen”). But it really does seem like the Federal Reserve Chair(wo)man is out to get the Donald.

    Yellen recently told Congress’s Joint Economic Committee that an interest rate hike could be imminent if “incoming data provide some further evidence of continued progress toward the committee’s objectives.” Markets have already priced in a hike of a quarter to a half of a percentage point. For now, stocks continue to be reach historic highs and the dollar is strong, even as Yellen and her central banking cohorts begin to ease on the gas.

    But will Yellen’s gambit plunge us into a recession is the question. Just because Wall Street is gorging on high returns doesn’t mean the economy is sound. For eight years and running, the Fed has kept interest rates near zero percent in an attempt to spark investment and borrowing. Unemployment has gradually shrunk during the Obama years, yet the workforce participation rateremains low by modern standards. Prior to Election Day, two-thirds of Americans were anxious about their economic future.

    Stock traders are popping the bubbly while middle America drinks the warm beer of worry. If you’re still in the dark as to why Trump stole the Rust Belt from Hillary, you need not look further than that.

    Fear aside, Trump’s election has been an Advil to the ongoing economic headache felt by most Americans. Eight years of Obama’s big spending combined with ultra low interest rates has done precious little to shore up their optimism. Retirees on fixed income can’t get a yield on their savings. Millennials earning a salary for the first time in their life have little incentive to put money away.

    So you might think: Hey, maybe Yellen’s hinting about raising interest rates is a good thing! Sure, it might cause the S&P 500 to dip. But it’s about time Grandma got a return on her CDs.

    I’m very skeptical. Interest rates most definitely need to rise, but Yellen’s timing is suspicious. Trump, despite his admiration for low borrowing rates (and debt refinancing), has accused Yellen of keeping the lid on interest rates in order to boost Obama’s legacy. He told CNBC in September that rates were “staying at zero because [Yellen’s] obviously political and she's doing what Obama wants her to do.” In another interview with Reuters, Trump explained with perfect Trumpian simplicity, "They're keeping rates down because they don't want everything else to go down.”

    Yellen wasn’t happy about the charges. She fired back at a press conference, saying, "We do not discuss politics at our meetings, and we do not take politics into account in our decisions.”

    Uh huh. And I’m the Archbishop of Canterbury.

    Since the beginning, the Federal Reserve was designed to operate in secret, away from the prying eye of politics. A nation’s money supply is a fragile thing: If you have too much, you get hyperinflation that destroys the currency. If you have too little, deflation sets in, and people withhold from spending.

    (The last part of the logic is phooey, but that’s a topic for another article).

    What the Fed, serving as America’s central bank, does is balance the money supply to reflect market conditions. When the market is roaring, it’s time to cut off the money spigot so as to rein in inflation. When things are sluggish, pouring cash into the economy is supposed to gin up activity. There are all kinds of ins and outs and what-have-yous involved in the process, including convoluted accounting techniques. But long mythologized story short, the tinkers at the Fed are supposed to act on behalf of the economy, and not the elected shysters in Washington. Every macro-econ student learns that faux civics lesson the first week of class.

    And like almost everything taught at college these days, Fed independence is a load of garbage. From its inception, the central bank has been a political tool presidents have used to bolster their administration’s approval ratings. “[T]he Federal Reserve fundamentally shifted its monetary policy course in 1953, 1961, 1969, 1974, and 1977 — all years in which the presidency changed. Fed policy almost always changes to accommodate varying presidential preferences,” writes economist Thomas DiLorenzo.

    When presidents want tighter money—like Ike and Reagan did during their respective terms—the Fed obliges. When presidents demand loose monetary policy—such as LBJ and Nixon—the money magicians at the Fed make it so.

    Ultimately, the Federal Reserve is a creature of Congress, and much of its leadership is staffed by presidential appointment. Should the president be unpleased by the Fed’s performance, there are consequences. G. William Miller’s short and disastrous 18-month-term under Jimmy Carter demonstrated as much.

    So where does that leave Yellen? Trump threatened to oust the troll-looking monetary maiden on the campaign trail. It’s not within the president’s power to announce “You’re fired!” to a sitting Fed chairman. Pushing her out will take some cajoling. Somehow, though, I don’t think Mrs. Yellen wants to take orders from a President Trump.

    And what would be a better going-away present for a new but critical administration than crippling the economy?

    If it is indeed Yellen’s plan to tank the Trump presidency on her way out by raising interest rates, the Donald should fight back. He should take to his best medium, the TV, and begin making the public aware of the sabotage going on. When Yellen abandons her throne, Trump should appoint someone who is concerned about the dollar’s long-term stability. A few choices off the top of my head: finance writer and all-around mensch Jim Grant, former Director of the Office of Management and Budget David Stockman, commodity guru Jim Rogers, or former congressional representative and arch-Fed-critic Ron Paul.

    Either would do nicely in turning the Fed from a politically-driven economy-destroying machine into something far less dangerous. And each could do their part in making King Dollar great again.

  • New Poll Reveals Carrier Deal Wildly Popular With Voters – "Rarely Do We See Numbers That High"

    As the talking heads of the mainstream media endlessly cogitate over the propriety of Trump negotiating one-off deals with companies like Carrier, the voters have seemingly made up their mind and are overwhelmingly supportive.  Per a new Politico poll, 60% of the overall electorate is supportive of the Carrier deal that saved 1,000 jobs from moving to Mexico in return for tax savings.

    While some conservatives and conservative groups — including The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board and former vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin — have decried the Carrier deal as “crony capitalism,” the Politico/Morning Consult poll shows it’s a political winner for Trump. Sixty percent of voters say Carrier’s decision to keep some manufacturing jobs in Indiana, where Pence is still serving as governor, gives them a more favorable view of Trump. That includes not only 87 percent of self-identified Republicans, but also 54 percent of independents and 40 percent of Democrats.

     

    “The Carrier announcement was big for Trump,” said Kyle Dropp, Morning Consult co-founder and chief research officer. “Rarely do we see numbers that high when looking at how specific messages and events shape public opinion.”

    Carrier Poll

     

    Meanwhile, despite Sarah Palin blasting the Carrier deal as “crony capitalism” and “corporate welfare”, voters also seem to be overwhelmingly supportive of launching direct negotiations with private companies and/or offering tax breaks in return for keeping jobs in the United States.

    Similarly, Republican voters say they are more likely to support one-off interventions with private companies like the Carrier deal than are Democratic voters. Asked whether it is acceptable for the president and vice president to negotiate directly with private businesses, a 51 percent majority of voters say that is appropriate, including 69 percent of Republicans. Just 27 percent say it is unacceptable, including 41 percent of Democrats.

     

    A larger, 62 percent majority — 78 percent of Republicans, 46 percent of Democrats and 63 percent of independents — say it is acceptable for the president and vice president to offer tax breaks or incentives to individual companies to keep jobs in the U.S., while only 2 in 10 voters say it’s inappropriate.

     

    And 56 percent of voters say it’s acceptable for the president and vice president to “negotiate with individual private companies on a case-by-case basis,” including three-quarters of Republicans.

    Carrier Poll

     

    But the poll wasn’t all positive for Trump as 56% of respondents said the President-elect uses Twitter too much while nearly 80% of Hillary supporters admitted to being “triggered” by his tweets.  

    Carrier Poll

    Carrier Poll

  • Dallas Mayor Files Lawsuit To Block Withdrawals From "Insolvent" Police Pension After "Run On The Bank"

    Last week, Dallas Mayor Michael Rawlings sent a scathing letter to the Dallas Police and Fire Pension (DPFP) Board demanded that withdrawals be halted immediately until the “solvency and actuarial soundness of the Pension System is restored.”  That said, the Mayor’s request was seemingly ignored as he has now filed a lawsuit with the Dallas District Court to force the pension board to halt withdrawals amid a “run on the bank.”

    Within the suit, Rawlings notes that $500 million in lump-sum withdrawals have been made from the DPFP since August 2016 with $80 million of that amount being withdrawn in the first 2 weeks of November alone.  The suit continues on to allege that “this mass exodus of DROP funds amounts to a “run on the bank” and is exacerbating the financial peril of the Pension System as a whole.”

    In performing these ministerial duties, the Board has a duty to ensure that programs, such as the Pension System’s optional Deferred Retirement Option Plan (“DROP”), which is not a constitutionally protected benefit (or “benefit” at all), do not impair or reduce the Pension System’s core constitutionally protected benefits, e.g., service retirement benefits. The Board is willfully failing to perform these ministerial duties.

     

    The Pension System, which the Board oversees, is in the midst of a financial crisis. In early 2016, the Board was warned by its own actuary that absent radical change,the Pension System would become insolvent within 15 years—irrevocably eradicating the constitutionally protected service retirement benefits (and other constitutionally protected benefits) of police and firefighter personnel of the City and their beneficiaries.

     

    Critically, this 15-year projection of insolvency was based upon two overly optimistic assumptions that the Board has now known to be incorrect for several months. First, the actuary assumed that the Pension System’s $2.7 billion in assets would remain stable, even though approximately 56% of these assets were composed of optional DROP funds, which have historically been permitted to be withdrawn in lump-sums upon demand (even though this option was used infrequently before this year). Second, the actuary assumed that the Pension System would achieve its targeted 7.25% return or more on itsinvestments for the next 15 years.

     

    Publication of this looming insolvency scenario prompted some DROP Participants to withdraw their DROP funds in lump-sum, which created a “snowball”effect, leading a staggering number of other DROP Participants to withdraw nearly $500 million in optional lump-sum DROP funds from the Pension System from August 13, 2016 to present. Over $80 million of these lump-sum DROP withdrawals have occurred within the first two weeks of November 2016 alone. Over this three-month time period, the Board has knowingly allowed DROP funds to continue to be withdrawn at record levels even though it is aware that doing so is irreparably harming the Pension System’s solvency and liquidity.

     

    Lump-sum DROP withdrawals for 2016 are now on pace to be over 15 times higher than their historical average. This mass exodus of DROP funds amounts to a “run on the bank” and is exacerbating the financial peril of the Pension System as a whole.

     

    The DPFP contreversy comes as hundreds of police and firefighters have poured millions into “DROP” accounts in which they were guaranteed exorbitant returns of 8% while the pension board has proposed a $1 billion bailout from the city of Dallas. 

    The city estimates that, as of November, 517 police and firefighters have DROP accounts containing more than $1 million. One, belonging to an unnamed first responder, has $4.3 million in it, city figures show. On average, the city estimates that the average DROP account contains nearly $600,000.

     

    The controversy all comes at a time when the board has asked the cash-strapped city for a bailout over $1 billion. The board’s position is that they legally can’t stop the withdrawals, but the mayor disagrees.

    Of course, this all begs the question of whether the Dallas Police and Fire Pension will be the first pension ponzi to burst?

    Here is the full lawsuit filed by Dallas Mayor Michael Rawlings:

  • Virginia Tech Snowflakes Unveil Definitive List Of Top 50 Microaggressions That Offend Them

    Submitted by William Nardi via TheCollegeFix.com,

    Be careful what you say at Virginia Tech. Chances are, it could be a microaggression.

    Multiple groups at Virginia Tech have collaborated to collect “microaggression testimonials” from students, who came up with roughly 50 different expressions that offend them. The examples are currently displayed on the “Microaggressions: #hokiesspeakup” Facebook page.

    While the campaign lasted through the Spring semester, several posters reminding student to watch what they say still pepper the campus today.

    The grievances were collected at a series of weekly meetings hosted by the NAACP, the Muslim Student Association and Jewish Student Union. They can be categorized into several identity politics genres, including: disability, race, religion and sexual orientation.

    micro2

    Among the posters still hanging, at least three remain up in McBryde, an academic hall, telling students not to say “All Jews are rich,” refer to other students as “spicy latinas” for giving opinions, and not to shout “run n*gger run” at black joggers while passing them on the street.

    “It should have been a campaign to promote common decency, but beneath the surface, it plays into their own scornful agendas,” Virginia Tech senior Nicholas Korpics told The College Fix.

     

    “The minority groups on campus, especially within the leftist-queer community, have little to no intentions of reconciling with their ‘oppressors.’ They just want to isolate themselves and then say nasty things about people who oppress them.”

    This is not the first time Virginia Tech has put up controversial posters. Earlier this year they came under fire after displaying messages that asked Christian students to check their “religious privilege.”

    As for the 50 microaggressions collected at Virginia Tech, they include:

    Disability

    • “Coworkers at another institution frequently tried to ‘diagnose’ people behind their back, and repeatedly described people with specific disabilities (that I share) as scary, dangerous, awkward, creepy, weird, ect.”
    • “Don’t call yourself that,” where that refers to me calling myself disabled.
    • “She’s so bipolar.” Disabilities are not insults.
    • “You have so much to be thankful for, you have no reason to be depressed.”
    • “You just need a positive mental attitude!” being told to people with mental illness or other disabilities.
    • A disabled person being told “You’re so inspirational” for doing an everyday task.
    • A non-disabled classmate viewing the R-word as just another swear word and including it in a poem.
    • Going to other campus social justice or diversity events, and them not being accessible [for disabled people].
    • Having to take a longer, less obvious route to get into buildings on campus.

    micro3

    Religion

    • “All Jews are rich.” I’m working to pay myself through college.
    • “Jew are just white people”… explain these communities who have existed for centuries.
    • There are many holidays to be observant of, and I may have to miss class. Please respect my religion.
    • When someone finds out that I’m Jewish and then asks if I was born that way.

    LGBTQ

    • “I don’t understand why you can’t just be happy with your body.”
    • “Since you’re transitioning, does that make you [insert sexuality here]?”
    • “What’s your real name/gender?”—One’s identity and/or gender are what they say it is.
    • “Why can’t boys just dress like boys and girls just dress like girls?”
    • “Why can’t you just be gay?”—Gender identity and sexuality are not the same.
    • But gender is socially constructed, you don’t need to physically transition”—accept, don’t invalidate trans people’s experiences and wants for their body.
    • People correcting others for not using certain terms to describe me (e.g. “No, that’s a dudette”)—let trans people describe their own identities.

    Race and Ethnicity

    • “When you underestimate my mental capacity based on my proficiency speaking English.”
    • Arriving at a house party and hearing, “Party’s over, too many n*ggers here, time to leave.”
    • Being asked if “there were pinatas” at my friend’s party.
    • Being asked to present the black perspective in a predominantly white class.
    • Being called an “angry black woman” when speaking in a stern voice or standing up for yourself.
    • Being in a room full of fellow academics and being told that you speak “very intelligently.”
    • Being the only person questioned at a party after the DJ’s IPod goes missing.
    • Being told that I am “so well spoken…for a Latino.”
    • Being told that I am a “Spicy Latina,” anytime that I give my opinion.
    • Jogging down the street and hearing “Run N*gger Run,” shouted from cars passing by.
    • Professors making condescending remarks about your undergrad because it was an HBCU.
    • Treating my hair as your own private petting zoo.
    • Virginia Tech students asking me what I plan to do with my degree “back home.”
    • When fellow Hokies tell me, “I thought all of YOU PEOPLE were good at basketball.”
    • When I tell someone about my origins and they reply with “Wait, you’re all not Mexican!”
    • When meeting someone for the first time, and the first thing they ask is if “English is my second language.”
    • When my white professors say “n*gger” thoughtlessly in class.
    • When people tell you you’re only at Virginia Tech because of affirmative action.
    • When school official state that, “people like you should stay home and not waste taxpayers dollars…despite scoring in the 90th percentile in nationwide exams.”
    • When white people claim to be “blacker than you” for knowing the words to a rap song.
    • When you tell people where you’re from and they automatically assume you’re from the “bad part” of that area.
    • When you think it’s humorous to ask me, “how do you say taco in Spanish.”

    *  *  *

    So probably better just to stay at home.

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Today’s News 6th December 2016

  • How U.S. Colleges Sell Enrollment to the Highest Bidders

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    This past Friday, Reuters published one of the most important articles I’ve read in a while relative to the attention being paid to the issue. It details a streamlined practice through which Chinese “education” companies essentially bribe college admissions officers at top U.S. universities to accept tuition paying Chinese students. It’d be bad enough if these students were actually qualified, but in many cases these companies complete the entirety of the applications for the students, including writing their essays. It’s not uncommon for these student-clients to never see their own applications.

    Naturally, these companies couldn’t pull off their sleazy scam without willing American partners. Enter Thomas Benson and Stephen Gessner, two eager-beaver members of our nation’s celebrated — earn as much money as possible however possible without regard to the negative consequences to your fellow Americans — class. The entire story will make you sick, and it’s just further proof of how cronyism, bribery and a complete lack of ethics has fully penetrated into virtually every single facet of American life. It’s symptomatic of the debased, crooked Banana Republic economy we have become.

    Without further ado, here are some excerpts from the must read article, How Top U.S. Colleges Hooked Up With Controversial Chinese Companies:

    SHANGHAI/SHELTER ISLAND, New York – Thomas Benson once ran a small liberal arts college in Vermont. Stephen Gessner served as president of the school board for New York’s Shelter Island.

     

    More recently, they’ve been opening doors for Chinese education companies seeking a competitive edge: getting their students direct access to admissions officers at top U.S. universities. 

     

    Over the past seven years, Benson and Gessner have worked as consultants for three major Chinese companies. They recruited dozens of U.S. admissions officers to fly to China and meet in person with the companies’ student clients, with the companies picking up most of the travel expenses. Among the schools that participated: Cornell University, the University of Chicago, Stanford University and the University of California, Berkeley.

     

    Two companies Benson and Gessner have represented – New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc and Dipont Education Management Group – offer services to students that go far beyond meet-and-greets with admissions officers.

     

    Eight former and current New Oriental employees and 17 former Dipont employees told Reuters the firms have engaged in college application fraud, including writing application essays and teacher recommendations, and falsifying high school transcripts.

     

    The New Oriental employees said most clients lacked the language skills to write their own essays or personal statements, so counselors wrote them; only the top students did original work. New Oriental and Dipont deny condoning or wittingly engaging in application fraud.

     

    Building on a model they pioneered for Dipont, Benson and Gessner helped New Oriental introduce its clients to U.S. admissions officers, linchpin players in the fast-growing business of supplying Chinese students a prestigious American education.

     

    Beijing-based New Oriental is a behemoth. Founded in 1993, the company is China’s largest provider of private education services, serving more than two million Chinese students a year. Its shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange. The company generates about $1.5 billion in annual net revenue from programs that include test preparation and English language classes. This year, about 10,000 of its clients were enrolled in American colleges and graduate schools.

     

    A New Oriental student contract reviewed by Reuters states that its services include “writing or polishing” parts of college applications. The contract says New Oriental will set up an email account on behalf of the client for communicating with colleges, keeping sole control of the password. Several former employees said some students never even saw their applications: The company controlled the entire process, including submitting the application to colleges.

     

    The new insight into the business practices of Chinese education companies comes at a time when American colleges are relying more heavily on Chinese undergraduates, who tend to pay full tuition. Their numbers grew 9 percent to 135,629 students in the 2015-2016 school year, representing nearly a third of all international undergraduates, according to the Institute of International Education.

     

    Helping Chinese kids get into U.S. schools has become a significant industry, with hundreds of companies having sprung up in China to cash in. These businesses often charge large sums for services that sometimes include helping students cheat on standardized tests and falsifying their college applications.

     

    Ghost-writing applications for students is so common in China that some who do it speak openly about the practice.

     

    “I wrote essays and recommendation letters for students when I worked at New Oriental, which I still do right now for my own consultancy,” former New Oriental employee David Shi told Reuters. “I know there is an ethical dilemma but it’s the nature of the industry.”

     

    Beginning in 2009, Gessner and Benson launched tours and summer camps for U.S. admissions officers to meet Dipont students in China and advise them on applying to colleges. Benson said he and Gessner recruited the universities through contacts in secondary and higher education.

     

    To establish credibility with the colleges, they said, they set up a New York-based non-profit called the Council for American Culture and Education Inc, or CACE.

     

    “It was a more respectable way to work as consultants. It helped us to recruit colleges,” said Gessner.

     

    The strategy worked. The early participants included admissions officers from such prestigious institutions as Cornell, Stanford, Swarthmore College, Emory University and the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor.

     

    Reuters reported in October that the New York Attorney General’s office planned to review the charity, which had failed to disclose its ties to Dipont in U.S. and New York State tax filings. The review could lead to a formal investigation if authorities find evidence that CACE violated New York law.

     

    Reuters also reported that eight former Dipont employees had described how the company had engaged in application fraud, including writing essays for students and altering recommendation letters. Since the story, Reuters has interviewed nine additional former Dipont employees who gave similar accounts.

     

    To get the colleges to participate in the New Oriental trips, Benson and Gessner used the playbook they perfected at Dipont. Both Chinese companies paid airfare, hotel and other travel expenses for each of the admissions officers whom Benson and Gessner brought to China between 2009 and last year. “They wouldn’t go otherwise,” Benson said.

     

    The ethics code for college admissions officers doesn’t address the propriety of such arrangements. Cigus Vanni, a retired high school counselor from Wynnewood, Pennsylvania, said it was “absolutely” unethical for colleges to accept the money. He likened it to a “pay-for-play” scheme in which prospective Chinese students get special treatment. Many American applicants to elite U.S. colleges – which can receive five to 20 applications for each available slot – don’t get to directly interact with admissions officers.

     

    “You’re giving these people direct access to college admissions officers that no one else has,” said Vanni, who serves on the admissions practices committee of the National Association for College Admission Counseling. “And there’s something expected in return for that.”

    Corrupt, crony, parasitic economic practices have now infected every single aspect of American life.

    New Oriental touts the benefits of this access to prospective clients. In promotional material on its website, the company described how, during the 2014 tour, it arranged for one of its students “to have opportunities to have close contact with a Carleton admissions officer.”

     

    The testimonial ends with the young woman receiving an acceptance letter from Carleton College.

     

    Olivia Qiu said she used New Oriental to apply to eight U.S. colleges in 2010. After completing a questionnaire, the counselors took over. “I didn’t write anything. They wrote everything for me,” she said.

     

    Qiu ultimately didn’t attend any of those eight colleges. Before university, she took a job at New Oriental in Tianjin and said she wrote essays for students. Other employees, she said, wrote personal statements, supplemental essays and recommendation letters. “Sometimes, the student didn’t even see (the application) before they submitted it” to colleges, she said.

     

    She said she quit over ethical concerns. “I just thought that’s not right, that’s not how you help students,” she said.

     

    A current New Oriental employee said he once falsified an entire high school transcript for a student. A former employee who worked in 2014 and 2015 compared New Oriental’s college application process to an assembly line: One person was in charge of signing a service contract with parents, another compiling a college list, a third completing the application, and a fourth submitting it to universities.

     

    By early this year, Benson and Gessner had stopped working for New Oriental and were focusing on new markets, including India, Sri Lanka and Africa.

     

    But the duo hasn’t abandoned China. In June, CICE organized a tour for admissions officers from seven U.S. colleges on behalf of another Chinese company, EIC Group.

    Class act these guys.

    EIC Group paid CICE $35,000, according to Benson, and promoted the tour with an advertisement on its website. “By ‘schmoozing and exchanging ideas’ with admissions officers, you are halfway to a successful application to a famous school,” said the Chinese-language ad. The ad disappeared after Reuters questioned the company about it.

    Let’s put the obvious ethical grotesqueness of it all aside for a moment and think about some of the real-world impacts of this pay-to-play pupil pipeline. With an ever growing supply of full tuition paying Chinese students waiting in the wings, what incentives do U.S. colleges have to keep tuition increases under control? Who cares if impoverished American debt slaves can afford an education or not? Like everything else in this sick society, it’s all about the money.

    The Wall Street Journal published a related article earlier this year titled: Heavy Recruitment of Chinese Students Sows Discord on U.S. Campuses, where we learned that the education english speaking students receive often suffers due to the need to accommodate the surge in poorly prepared Chinese students. For example:

    Students such as Mr. Shao are finding themselves separated from their American peers, sometimes through choice. Many are having a tough time fitting in and keeping up with classes. School administrators and teachers bluntly say a significant portion of international students are ill prepared for an American college education, and resent having to amend their lectures as a result.

     

    Rebecca Karl, a professor of Chinese history at New York University, puts it more starkly: She says Chinese students can pose a “burden” on her lectures, which she needs to modify for their benefit.

    Practices like these are able to sustain themselves due to public ignorance. It is imperative that we become far more informed as citizens, and far more outraged. Educate your friends and family by sharing this article.

  • Bernie Camp Threatens To Sue Project Veritas After Video Revealed "Egregious Violation Of Campaign Finance Law"

    The former deputy campaign manager for Bernie Sanders, Richard Pelletier, has sent a letter to Project Veritas threatening a lawsuit over his recording of a phone call, which Pelletier claims violated Nevada wiretapping laws.  The phone call was related to the following undercover video published by Project Veritas back in February, potentially revealing that the Bernie campaign violated campaign finance laws by funding members of the Australian Labor Party to “deface and/or destroy campaign materials and signs of Sanders’ opponents — on both sides of the political aisle.”  

    In response to the lawsuit threat, Project Veritas Assistant Communications Director, Luara Loomer, told Sputnik News simply that they too would be “pursuing justice” after “The Bernie Sanders campaign committed an egregious violation of campaign finance law.”

     

    Of course, the undercover video, published back in February, potentially reveals the violation of several federal laws including enlisting the help of a foreign national with a federal election and tampering with “political advertising which is placed on or affixed to public property or any private property.”

    Federal election law prohibits a foreign national from directly or indirectly contributing money or any other thing of value to a Federal, state, or local election. This includes the payment by any person of compensation for the personal services of another person which are rendered to a political committee without charge for any purpose.

     

    “The payment for the personal services of another person if those services are rendered without charge to a political committee for any purpose, except for legal and accounting services… is a contribution,: 52 U.S.C. 30101(8)(A) explains.

     

    The volunteers were allegedly used to deface and/or destroy campaign materials and signs of Sanders’ opponents — on both sides of the political aisle.

     

    Stealing or vandalizing political advertisement is illegal, the law states “no person shall remove, deface,or knowingly destroy any political advertising which is placed on or affixed to public property or any private property.”

     

    In the video released by Project Veritas, the Australian nationals are seen stealing Trump signs. The footage also features a recording of Australian citizen Rebecca Doyle stating “they [the ALP] pay for our flights, they pay for the cost of accommodation, which is just the staff house, and then we get $60 stipend per day.”

    So while the Washington Post and other mainstream media outlets continue to blast alleged election tampering by “Russian” agents, we expect their advice would be that you promptly ignore this documented evidence of actual election tampering by full-time employees of Australia’s Labor Party.

     

    Here is the full letter sent to Project Veritas by Pelletier’s Attorney:

  • Students Demand "Sanctuary" From Immigration Laws, Student Loan Debt, And Finals

    Submitted by Amber Athey ad Cabot Phillips via CampusReform.org,

    • Students at George Washington University, site of a recent walkout to demand a "sanctuary campus" to protect illegal immigrant students, say they favor defiance of other federal laws, too.
    • Several students said they would like to make the campus a "sanctuary" from student loan debt, while others favored exemptions from underage drinking laws.
    • Some students even felt they should be given a pass on final exams due to the stress of the election, explaining that "it’s really hard to focus on your studies when there’s so much else going on.”

    Students across the country are asking for their schools to be “sanctuary campuses” for undocumented students, meaning university administrators would ignore federal immigration law and refuse to share information about undocumented students with immigration officials.

    Several schools have already declared themselves sanctuary campuses, including Portland State University, Reed College, and Columbia University.

    To find out more about what motivates students to support the sanctuary campus movement, Campus Reform visited George Washington University, where many students participated in a pro-sanctuary walk-out several weeks ago.

    The students interviewed were overwhelmingly in favor of GW becoming a sanctuary campus, calling it a “great thing,” and claiming that undocumented students “have a right to be going to this school” because “it’s really important for students to feel safe while they’re going to school.”

    Since the GW students were asking their administration to ignore federal law, Campus Reform asked if they wanted the campus to be a “sanctuary” from other laws, as well.

    “What about a sanctuary campus where student loan laws don’t affect you here?” Campus Reform asked.

    “Oh, absolutely,” responded one student, while another agreed, saying, “Yes, that’d be cool.”

    Students were also on board with making GW a sanctuary campus from underage drinking laws, because students “would feel safer” if they could drink and go to parties without breaking the law.

    “I do agree with that one,” declared one student.

    “Yeah, I think it [campus] should be a safe space for everybody,” replied another, explaining, “I don’t think anybody should be judged.”

    Some students even went so far as to say that campus should be a safe space from final exams, given recent stress from the 2016 election.

    “School’s been really stressful especially after the Trump election,” one student vented. “Like, it’s really hard to focus on your studies when there’s so much else going on.”

    Throughout the day, Campus Reform spoke with just one student who refused to support the idea of ignoring federal laws on campus.

    “I don’t believe in harboring criminals,” the student, who said he voted for Donald Trump, told Campus Reform. “I think, it’s against the law, we have to enforce federal law where it stands.”

  • Amazon Goes Offline With Bricks-And-Mortar Grocery Chain; Envisions Opening 2,000 Stores

    After launching Amazon Fresh, an online food delivery service, in numerous cities just a few years ago, Amazon has now decided it has to go “offline” to capture incremental share of the grocery market.  As such, the company today revealed its first brick-and-mortar small-format grocery store, Amazon Go, one of at least three formats the online retail giant is exploring as it makes a play for a higher share of grocery spending.  With in-store technology designed to track customers’ every step, the Amazon Go concept promises “No Lines” and “No Checkout.”

     

    The first Amazon Go concept store is roughly the size of a convenience store, though according to the Wall Street Journal the company is also testing a drive-thru concept as well as a traditional 30-to-40,000 square foot grocery store that would combine in-store shopping and curbside pickup. 

    The Amazon Go store, at roughly 1,800 square feet in downtown Seattle, resembles a convenience store-format in a video Amazon released Monday. It features artificial intelligence-powered technology that eliminates checkouts, cash registers and lines. Instead, customers scan their phone on a kiosk as they walk in, and Amazon automatically determines what items customers take from the shelves. After leaving the store, Amazon charges their account for the items and sends a receipt.

     

    Meanwhile, in the suburban Seattle neighborhood of Ballard, a handful of workers on Monday were finishing up one of Amazon’s two drive-through prototypes in the area, which according to the people close to the situation are slated to open in the next few weeks. The wood-paneled building with green trim and an overhang appeared to have at least three covered bays for cars to pull up and pick up orders, with a paved driveway in front.

     

    The third concept, the newly approved multi-format store, combines in-store shopping with curbside pickups, according to the people. It will likely adopt a 30,000- to 40,000-square-foot floor plans and spartan stocking style like European discount grocery chains Aldi or Lidl, offering a limited fresh selection in store and more via touch-screen orders for delivery later. Stores in this format, which are smaller than traditional U.S. grocery stores, could start appearing late next year.

    While the store formats are still in the concept stage, Amazon ultimately envisions opening up to 2,000 brick-and-mortar locations.

    Amazon envisions opening more than 2,000 brick-and-mortar grocery stores under its name, depending on the success of the new test locations, according to the people. By comparison, Kroger Co. operates about 2,800 locations across 35 states.

     

    Adding grocery pickups will be “part of their secret sauce in terms of all of the different ways in which they can engage the customer in bringing the product to them,” says Bill Bishop, chief architect at grocery and retail consultancy Brick Meets Click. “Everyone is looking at grocery because of frequency. Frequency guarantees that you have density.”

    Amazon GO

     

    Of course, Amazon isn’t the first to test drive-thru and curbside grocery as Target and Wal-Mart both plan to launch curbside pickup in 1,000 stores by the end of next year.

    Meanwhile, with nearly 40,000 grocery stores in the U.S. employing roughly 3.5mm people, most of whom work at or near minimum wage, Bernie’s “Fight for $15” agitators may want to take note of this development.

  • Auditor Deloitte Fined A Record $8 Million For Massive Fraud

    Remember when auditors were, by their very definition, supposed to be the embodiment of credibility, trustworthiness and moral fiber? The Brazilian arm of Big Four auditing giant, Deloitte, forgot these  simple prerequisites and as a result the US auditing watchdog fined the firm a record $8 million for what amounts to massive fraud: falsifying audit reports, altering documents and providing false testimony during an investigation that unearthed what it described as its “most serious” finding of misconduct.

    The US Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, or PCAOB, also penalized or barred 12 former partners, including a national practice director, and auditors of the Brazil-based Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Auditores Independentes.

    The Deloitte Brazil case is the first time the PCAOB has “charged a member of the Big Four auditing firms with fraud and for failing to co-operate with an investigation” according to the FT. Worse, unlike banks which resolve similar cases without admitting or denying guilt, in settling, Deloitte Brazil admitted it had violated quality control standards and failed to co-operate with the auditing board’s inspection and subsequent investigation.

    “This is the most serious misconduct we’ve uncovered. It’s cover-up after cover-up after cover-up,” Claudius Modesti, director of enforcement at the PCAOB, said. “As an investor you’re expecting that the audit was done properly and sufficiently and that wasn’t the case here.”

    Not only was that not the case, but the details read like straight out of a fictional account of third-world crime.

    As the FT details, the PCAOB alleges Deloitte knew that its client, low-cost airline Gol Linhas Aéreas Inteligentes, did not have enough evidence to support “a potentially material amount of the maintenance deposits” that it was reporting. Deloitte’s senior auditors also knew the books were being reviewed for potential material misstatements when it released its audit report and signed off on the accuracy of the financial statements.

    In 2012, PCAOB inspectors looked at the Gol audits during their review of Deloitte Brazil. The engagement partner for the Gol account allegedly instructed his team to alter the work papers, according to the settlement. The partner also told his staff to alter the work papers for another client whose audit was also under review, the PCAOB alleged.

     

    The auditing watchdog later opened an investigation and alleges that this was further obstructed by the Deloitte auditors who provided the altered work papers to regulators. Senior Deloitte auditors falsely testified under oath that the altered work papers were the original documents, according to the settlement. 

     

    Investigators compared documents and realised something had changed. “The documentation that they had generated during the audit had changed so that our inspectors wouldn’t be able to identify, for example, the significance of these maintenance deposit deficiencies,” said Mr Modesti.

    After Deloitte conducted its own internal investigation when regulators brought concerns about altered documents, it found 70 altered work papers related to the Gol audits. PCAOB said senior leaders of the firm also obstructed investigators when they sought to look into the second client.

    In January, a senior manager who worked on the Gol audit gave PCAOB investigators recordings taken on his mobile phone of conversations he had had with a senior partner. In one of those recordings, made in 2014 amid the enforcement investigation, the senior partner told the manager, “any evidence that you have of this, remove it from your machine. Keep it in a — if you have that, keep it somewhere else, but not in your machine, not in the office. OK?”

    “Everything you told me, everything we discussed, never happened,” the senior partner added.

    In an attempt to save face after this “massive fraud” was uncovered, Deloitte tried to cast it off as a one-time event, the result of a few corrupt individuals, and said: “Integrity in delivering high-quality services is
    critical to our business, our clients and the public interest; it is
    non-negotiable.” It added that the actions of “a limited number” of
    individuals was “wholly unacceptable”. And yet, all but one of the former partners and auditors have been banned from working for companies and broker dealers that fall under the PCAOB’s oversight.

    In addition to the fine, which is the largest that the PCAOB has ever
    obtained, Deloitte agreed to an independent monitor and is banned from
    accepting new audit clients in Brazil until the firm meets remedial
    benchmarks. 

    One wonders if Deloitte was caught with one such brazenly egregious case, just what else is there that goes unreported, and undiscovered when it comes to corporate “books”, not only in Brazil but also in the US.

  • A Banana Republic In The Making – "The Glue Of Reason In India Is Flaking"

    Submitted by Jayant Bhandari via Acting-Man.com,

    A Brief Recap

    India’s Prime Minister announced on 8th November 2016 that Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 banknotes will no longer be legal tender. Linked are Part-I, Part-II, Part-III, and Part-IV , which provide updates on the rapidly encroaching police state

    Expect a continuation of new social engineering notifications, each sabotaging wealth-creation, confiscating people’s wealth, and tyrannizing those who refuse to be a part of the herd, in the process destroying the very backbone of the economy and civilization.

    There are clear signs that in a very convoluted way, possession of gold for investment purposes will be made illegal. Expect capital controls to follow.   Chaos from people’s inability to access the money in their bank accounts is now spreading to the people who have so far been unaffected: the middle class.

    This is a completely unnecessary man-made disaster, with the single aim of glorifying  Narendra Modi.

     

    modi

    Indian prime minister Narendra Modi

    Photo credit: Reuters

     

     

    Fracturing Institutions

    Several petitions in various courts across India were immediately filed against the central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), for repudiating its IOU obligation which the currency bills represent, after Modi’s announcement on 8th November.

    Several postponements later, the first hearing at the Supreme Court will likely take place on 5th December 2016, almost a month after the announcement of the ban. That does not mean that the court did not deliberate over “more important issues” affecting this wretched poor country.

    It inter alia heard a petition and passed a judgment that makes playing the national anthem compulsory at cinema halls before the start of every movie, to promote nationalism. It also decreed that people have to stand up while the anthem is played. Henceforth one can be charged with sedition for not actively showing proper respect to the flag and the anthem.

    Only someone very numb can avoid being horrified by this.

    By law, the national anthem must henceforth be played in Indian cinemas before the start of a movie (as an aside, the anthem sounds actually interesting from a musical standpoint). Per the court’s order, everyone present must stand up while it is playing, so as to show proper respect. A failure to stand up can lead to an indictment for sedition, and sometimes it leads to offenders being berated and getting beaten up on the spot by irate nationalists. Happily, it is not yet mandatory to shout “Sieg Heil”. [PT]

     

    Salaried middle class Indians — lacking moral instincts and incapable of imagining the concept of individual liberty in this extremely irrational society — are happy with the court’s decision. Insecure in their own skin, they prefer the comfort of the collective. They are the true source of this collectivist poison.

    Indian courts are often referred to as “honorable court” and they very actively taking steps against anyone who shows the slightest of disrespect or challenges their judgments. So any direct challenge to their “authority” would be unwise.

    Indian institutions have continued to deteriorate and mutate since the British left India. They are now merely hollowed out structures, devoid of any meaning or essence. We are in the final phase in which these institutions are crumbling, but in the meantime pomp and show are amped up to fool the gullible.

    Indian culture in its immense irrationality does not provide the glue to even maintain these institutions, let alone improve on them. That glue could only have come from reason and moral instincts.

    Anyone with a sense of history also realizes that India produced its finest leaders while it was still under the control of the British. It was during British rule that a cultural renaissance was happening in India, which ended with the emergence of the politicized, so-called independence movement.

    Britain had set up institutions that allowed the ablest and the best to rise up. Not only is this no longer happening, but Indian institutions today actively suppress the ablest and the finest, as the recent judgment of the Supreme Court on the anthem exemplifies. This happens because most Indians euphorically support suppression of the individual both in theory and practice.

    Institutions of liberty have mutated into institutions of slavery.  It is this inversion that is hastening the rapid decay of Indian society. India must eventually end up with institutions that reflect its underlying culture: a hugely fractured, tribal set-up, and very likely a disintegrated India.

     

    ruins

    Without reason, institutions are destroyed by entropy

    Photo via indiaspend.com

     

    The Forgotten Ones

    Modi’s policies on demonetization are changing on a daily basis, sometimes more than once a day. This had to happen, for once you take up a mindless social engineering project of this enormity — killing 88% of monetary value in circulation overnight in a country where most people depend on cash — massive patch-up jobs have to be undertaken for the foreseeable future, helping India to degrade and sprint toward becoming a police state.

    Alas, there are simply not enough patches available. India’s economy and society will are facing massive problems.  So far, it has been the poorest citizens who have suffered the most.

    The horrendous struggles of more than 50% of the population, whose situation is worse than that of the average African on virtually every metric – who have no toilets, no electricity, no water supply, no access to even primary health care or basic education – will go unrecorded.

    These poorest of India’s people are seen as nobodies. International organizations only have an interest in them in terms of aggregate headline figures — Gini coefficient, poverty level, population growth, etc. India’s middle class, while it might claim to be against the caste system, does not really see these people or account for them, as they are widely perceived as mere servants.

    The western media, the IMF and many international economists — if they are paying attention to the current demonetization at all — are siding with the Indian government. It is as if the forces in favor of one-world government and their craving to control people’s cash and private lives have become their sole aim in life.

    Obsessed with Keynesian economics, they think that all one has to do to increase wealth is to finely adjust the currency-printing machine. Most of these people have never studied philosophy, watched or understood human psychology, investigated society in its complexity outside of econometrics and statistics, or participated in running a business.

    In their eyes, India is on the path of progress and institutional reform. From their perspective — colored by a rather simplistic, socialistic indoctrination — they are completely failing to see the situation in its entirety, particularly the massive suffering the ban on currency has inflicted on society and the inevitable systemic risks it has imposed on India’s future.

     

    Residents of Sanjay Colony, a residential neighbourhood, crowd around a water tanker provided by the state-run Delhi Jal (water) Board to fill their containers in New Delhi June 30, 2009. Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit has given directives to tackle the burgeoning water crisis caused by uneven distribution of water in the city according to local media. The board is responsible for supplying water in the capital

    This is the water supply for the lucky ones. Many do not have even this.

    Photo credit: Adnan Abidi / Reuters

     

    A Banana Republic in the Making

    Our interest here is in exploring deeper undercurrents and what they mean for the future of India. Every single indication is that India is on an inevitable path to becoming a full-scale police state.  But the Indian police state will not be a Nazi-kind of system.

    Being inherently disorganized, undisciplined and lacking the capacity to plan and having no commitment to values, India will go the way of autocracies in Africa, the Middle East, Pakistan and Bangladesh. With GDP per capita of USD 1,604, India is already drenched in poverty, and wallowing in suffering and disease.

    In India, suffering and violence — not reason or moral instincts — bring stability. The concept of reason is conspicuous by its absence in Indian society. Such societies — as in the Middle East, Africa, and elsewhere in the backward part of the world — tend to go through a phase of violence before stability arises. If they could reason, they would be able to bypass the phase of violence.

    The last thing anyone should do is to transplant such people into a different setting or to change the structure of their societies, as Modi has tried with the demonetization edict. People with tribal mindsets do not flourish, assimilate or evolve when transplanted or destabilized.

    This has been the consistent experience from trying to enforce institutional changes in these countries through top-down mechanisms. In what way have Iraq or Libya become any better after their ruthless rulers were forcibly removed?

    Societies lacking in reason also lack moral instincts. They are mostly oblivious to the pain of other people. In India, those from the lower castes — even though the formal caste system is crumbling  — do not register as human beings in the minds of members of the richer classes.

    Scores of people have died because of lack of treatment, having to queue for too long in their old age, etc., but in the imagination of the salaried middle class they are mere numbers, all somehow contributing to the greater good.

     

    Throngs of desperate people are storming a bank. How can such scenes possibly strike anyone as symptomatic of “good economic policy”? [PT]

     

    But now, with the month of November having ended, salaried people are starting to get hit as well. The money that they thought was safe in the banks is no longer available. It is now their turn to join the queues and return home empty-handed, as the banks have mostly run out of cash.

     

    banks-atms-crowd-pti_650x400_51478859671

    The middle class is now starting to suffer as well, as cash in the banking system has been depleted

    Photo credit: PTI

     

    inside-the-banks

    Pensioners and salary earners will likely change their view about the demonetization policy as they increasingly realize that their pensions and salaries are now stuck in the banks

     

    Gold Bullion Is Now Effectively Illegal

    Assaults on people’s private property and the integrity of their homes through tax-raids continue.  In a recent notification, government has made it clear that any ownership of jewelry above 500 grams of gold per married woman will be put under the microscopic scrutiny of tax authorities.

    Steep taxes and penalties will be imposed on those who cannot prove the source of their gold. In India’s Orwellian new-speak this means that because bullion has not been explicitly mentioned, its ownership will be deemed to be illegal. Courts will do what Modi wants. Huge bribes will have to be paid.

    Sane people are of course cleaning up their bank lockers. The secondary consequence of this will be a steep increase in unreported crimes, for people will be afraid of going to the police after a theft, fearing that the tax authorities will then ask questions. At the same time, the gold market has mostly gone underground, and apparently the volume of gold buying has gone up.

    The salaried middle class is the consumption class, often heavily indebted. Poor people have limited amounts of gold. The government is merely doing what pleases the majority and their sense of envy, to the detriment of small businesses and savers. Now, the middle class is starting to face problems as well. This will worsen once the the impact of the destruction of small businesses becomes obvious.

    India has always had a negative-yielding economy. It has suddenly become even more negative-yielding. Business risk has gone through the roof. Savers will be victimized. It is because of negative yields that Indian savers buy gold. They will buy more going forward.

    Sane Indians should stay a step ahead of their rapacious government and the evolving totalitarian society, which are less and less inhibited by any institutions or values in support of liberty.

     

    Conclusion

    India will become a police state, likely with the full support of most Indians. Nationalism will be the thread that weaves them together. But it is a fake thread, devoid of any value. Eventually, there will be far too many stresses in the system, whose institutions are already in an advance stage of decay.

    India as it exists today is a British creation. With the British now gone for 69 years, it is an entity has less and less reason to exist in its current form. The glue of reason that the British have applied is flaking, and it is doing so rapidly under the catalyst by name of Narendra Modi.

  • The "Pizzagate" Arrest: Police Release Criminal Complaint Against Comet Restaurant Shooter

    As we reported last night, the “Pizzagate” scandal took a turn for the bizarre, when a man with an assault rifle walked into the Comet Ping Pong restaurant on Sunday afternoon to “self-investigate” the popular Washington pizza parlor owned by James Alefantis that has been accused of being an international child sex ring run by prominent Democrats, following the release of Podesta emails. 28-year-old Edgar Maddison Welch, of Salisbury, N.C., fired the rifle at least once inside the restaurant but no one was injured, before he turned himself in.

    On Monday, the police released the criminal complaint against Welch, in which he admitted that he was motivated by the numerous online reports about a suspected child trafficking ring allegedly operating out of the restaurant and run by top Democrats, including Mrs. Clinton and her campaign chairman, John D. Podesta.

    Welch said in an arraignment released on Monday that he had read online that the Comet Ping Pong restaurant in Northwest Washington was “harboring child sex slaves, and he wanted to see for himself if they were there,” according to court documents. He said he was armed to help rescue children but surrendered peacefully “when he found no evidence that underage children were being harbored in the restaurant.”

    Welch was charged with four counts, including felony assault with a deadly weapon and carrying a gun without a license outside a home or business. Wearing a white jumpsuit and shackles, Welch told the judge his name and stood silently as he was advised of his rights. The judge ordered him to remain in custody.

    Welch, 28, of Salisbury, N.C., fired from an assault-like AR-15 rifle. The police had found two weapons in the restaurant, and one in the suspect’s car. No one was hurt.

    Will this arrest mute the relentless online allegations of a pedophile ring run out of the pizza store, and which allegedly implicates some of the top democrats in the country? Somehow we doubt it.

    Full police report below:

  • Did The US-Led Coalition Give The Coordinates Of A Russian Aleppo Hospital To Al-Qaeda For A Missile Attack

    Submitted by Alex Christoforou of The Duran

    This is becoming a familiar pattern. Every time Lavrov and Kerry appear to be making some sort of progress on ending hostilities in Syria, an unwarranted, and oddly timed attack on forces sided with the Syrian government occur.

    On September 9th, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary John Kerry agreed to a cessation of hostilities in Syria, amid an ultimatum for the US to finally separate the “moderate rebels” from the Al Qaeda-Al Nusra jihadi fighters.

    As pressure mounted to have the full text of the Lavrov – Kerry agreement published for the international community to understand the exact conditions outlined (something the US was admittedly opposed to), the American air force accidentally attacked the Syrian Arab Army positions at Deir Ezzor, which resulted in the death of 80 soldiers who were making strong gains against ISIS.

    The Duran’s Adam Garrie noted…

    –the timing of the event, the political response, the way in which the US has disregarded the UN as a serious forum, and the uncertainty over whether the crime was an intentional or unintentional blunder, cannot be ignored.

     

    The Russian Foreign Ministry have said quite frankly that the US airstrike has been an aid to ISIS. This is material fact and will be recorded in the annals of military history.

    This morning, The Duran’s Alexander Mercouris reported that the Syrian army is rapidly moving closer to taking back Aleppo from US-Saudi backed Al Qaeda jihadists…some predict the end game is days away, the Syrian army predicts final defeat of Jihadis “within weeks”.

    Lavrov and Kerry are once again discussing a diplomatic end to hostilities in and around Aleppo. The US, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the EU, are anxious to save whatever remains of their Al Qaeda regime change investment.

    The Duran’s Alexander Mercouris reported that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has spelled out clearly the terms Russia is giving to the US and to the Jihadis in eastern Aleppo: “they must all leave the city by a fixed date or be treated as terrorists.” 

    As diplomatic talks between Lavrov and Kerry intensify, to bring an end to fighting, the pattern of oddly timed attacks on forces sided with the Syrian government once again hit the news wires. This time the victim is not the Syrian army, but Russian doctors.

    RT reported today that Russian doctors were killed in rebel shelling of a hospital in Aleppo…

    A female Russian medical specialist has been killed and two more medics have been injured in a militant shelling of a mobile military hospital in Aleppo, the Russian Defense Ministry said.

     

    Some local residents attending medical appointments were also injured during the shelling that targeted one of the field hospitals set up in the government held part of the city, the ministry added.

     

    Russian military medics have begun to consult the residents of Syrian Aleppo’s eastern districts liberated from militants. They opened a clinic, a medical ward for children, a surgery department, an intensive care department, a laboratory and an x-ray room.

    Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov issued a statement on the sudden attack that may ensure a decisive end to any sort of diplomacy that remains between Kerry and Lavrov.

    The statement not only condemns the attack, but clearly places the blame on “terrorists’ patrons from the US, UK, France and their sympathizers” who, according to Konashenkov “provided the militants with information on the Russian hospital and its exact coordinates.” 

    “Today, between 12:21 and 12:30pm [local time], a medical center of the Russian Defense Ministry’s mobile hospital in Aleppo was shelled by the militants during the reception time.”

    “As a result of the direct hit of the reception ward, one female Russian military medic was killed [and] two medical specialists were severely injured.” 

     

    “We know who provided the militants with information on the Russian hospital and its exact coordinates. Therefore it’s not only the actual perpetrators who are responsible for murdering and wounding our medics who were administering aid to Aleppo children.” 

     

    “The hands of those who instigated this murder are also coated with the blood of our servicemen. Those who created, fed and armed those beats in human disguise, naming them ‘opposition’ for justification before their own conscience and voters. Yes, [this blood is on your hands], terrorists’ patrons from the US, UK, France and their sympathizers.”

    The Russian Defense Ministry is calling on the international community to condemn the attack. We will wait and see if the establishment mainstream media even mentions the story within their news cycle.

    We may also expect a western inspired false flag attack on, “say a UN convoy“, so as to divert attention away from this crime and thrust some good old “fake news” blame on Russian aggression.

    “We calls on the entire international community, as well as the International Red Cross and Red Crescent, Doctors Without Borders (MSF) and other international organizations to strongly condemn the murder of Russian doctors who carried out their duty by delivering medical assistance to the civilians in Aleppo. All perpetrators and all those who ordered the shelling of the Russian Defense Ministry’s hospital in Aleppo must be held accountable for their actions.”

  • "Fake News" Site Threatens Washington Post With Defamation Suit, Demands Retraction

    As the “fake news” narrative grows, and The House quietly passes a bill to “counter Russian propoganda” websites, one alleged ‘fake’ news wesbite – as defined by the farcical PropOrNot organization – has struck back. Naked Capitalism’s Yves Smith has threatened The Washington Post with a defamation suit and demanded a retraction.

    As the lawyers like to say, res ipsa loquitur. Please tweet and circulate this letter widely. You will notice that our attorney Jim Moody is a seasoned litigator who has won cases before the Supreme Court. He has considerable experience in First Amendment and defamation actions. Past high profile representations include Westomoreland v. CBS and defending Linda Tripp.

     

    I also hope, particularly for those of you who don’t regularly visit Naked Capitalism, that you’ll check out our related pieces that give more color to how the fact the Washington Post was taken for a ride by inept propagandists, particularly our introduction to our spoof PropOrNot.org site, which uses the PropOrNot project as an example of sorely deficient propaganda and shows where it went wrong, or the humor site itself. Be sure not to miss its FAQ.

     

    We have another post today that describes how the few things that are verifiable on the PropOrNot site don’t pan out, as in the organization is not simply a group of inept propagandists but also appears to deal solely in fabrications.

     

    If the site is flagrantly false with respect to things that can be checked, why pray tell did the Washington Post and its fellow useful idiots in the mainstream media validate and amplify its message? Strong claims demand strong proofs, yet the Post appeared content to give a megaphone to people who make stuff up with abandon. No wonder the members of PropOrNot hide as much as they can about what they are up to; more transparency would expose their work to be a tissue of lies.

    We fully endorse Yves Smith’s efforts.

    Additionally, we note that the only reason we haven’t followed up with a similar action is because i) the allegations were beyond laughable – we have rejected all of them on the record, and ii) there are simply too much other events taking place in what should otherwise be a quiet end to the year taking place to focus on what may be a lenghty, if gratifying, legal process.

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Today’s News 5th December 2016

  • Dang It Gold’s Supposed to Go Up! (Report 4 December, 2016)

    We’ve gone through a succession of events and processes that were supposed to make gold go up. The following list is by no means exhaustive:

    1. Quantitative Easing
    2. Bernanke’s Helicopter Drops
    3. Janet Yellen’s Keynesianism
    4. Obama’s Deficits (US government debt is now a hair away from $20,000,000,000—and that’s just the little part of it they put on their balance sheet)
    5. The election of Trump
    6. The Italian Referendum (current as we write this)

    Each has been good for a little blip that has been forgotten in the noise. We are seeing articles now that have moved on to the next old-new story. It seems that Trump is going to spend a lot on infrastructure. This will require massive deficits. But the market will distrust that the government can pay. So we will see a twin sell off of the US dollar in terms of other currencies, and Treasury bonds in terms of dollars. This will cause the mases to Discover Gold and the gold price is going to skyrocket. Click here to buy our fine gold, we have the very best gold.

    We get it. Everyone thinks that interest rates are going up because inflation because more spending. Actually not quite everyone—our view is that the drivers which have caused the interest rate to fall for 35 years are still in full, deadly effect. Nor the folks who are bidding on junk bonds, or stocks for that matter.

    But most everyone. Rates have to go up, because they’re lower than ever before history. Right?

    And if rates are going up, then so is gold, right?

    The Treasury bond is payabl only in US dollars. The US dollar, which is the liability of the Federal Reserve, is backed on by Treasurys. It’s a nice little check-kiting scheme. But besides that, the two instruments have the same risks. If you don’t like the bond, then you won’t like the dollar either. The day will come when en masse, the market decides it doesn’t like both of them, and gold will be the only acceptable money.

    With due respect to our old friend Aragorn, today is not that day!

    We believe interest rates are headed lower, not higher. But that said, we do not see any particular causal relationship between the interest rate and the price of gold. The former is the spread between the Fed’s undefined asset and its undefined liability. It is unhinged and while it could shoot the moon from Truman through Carter, it’s sailing in the other direction now. Down to Hell.

    The price of gold is the exchange rate between the Fed’s liability and metal. So long as people strive to get more dollars—most especially including those who bet on the price of gold, and those who write letters encouraging the bettors—there is no reason for this exchange rate to explode.

    Again, to plagiarize the Ranger from the North, the day will come when gold goes into permanent backwardation. But today is not that day!

    Today (Friday’s close), the price of gold is down seven Federal Reserve Notes from where it was a week ago.

    So where to from here? Are those dratted fundamentals moving?

    We will update those fundamentals below. But first, here’s the graph of the metals’ prices.

           The Prices of Gold and Silver
    prices

    Next, this is a graph of the gold price measured in silver, otherwise known as the gold to silver ratio. It fell a bit more this week. 

    The Ratio of the Gold Price to the Silver Price
    ratio

    For each metal, we will look at a graph of the basis and cobasis overlaid with the price of the dollar in terms of the respective metal. It will make it easier to provide brief commentary. The dollar will be represented in green, the basis in blue and cobasis in red.

    Here is the gold graph.

           The Gold Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price
    gold

    The price of gold fell (i.e. the price of the dollar rose, green line), and the basis (abundance) fell and cobasis (scarcity) rose just a bit.

    Our calculated fundamental price of gold fell about ten bucks, now about $1,200 even.

    Now let’s look at silver.

    The Silver Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price
    silver

    In silver, we see a 14-cent rise in price but the cobasis is up.

    The fundamentals got ever-so-slightly tighter. And our calculated fundamental price moved up to just under $15.

    We note that speculators bid silver up this evening (Arizona time) in the wake of the Italian vote, some 30 cents to just under $17. But as of this publication, they couldn’t hold the line and the price fell back and is now a nickel below Friday’s close.

     

    © 2016 Monetary Metals

  • Here's My Shocked Face

    h/t National Bank Financial

    Why is America’s homeownership rate at an all-time low despite rising household formation, record full-time employment and low interest rates? Perhaps, the trauma of the last housing crash is still fresh in the minds of potential home buyers who end up opting for rentals instead ? the rental vacancy rate is at a 31-year low. And prospective buyers who succeed in getting over that psychological barrier are then confronted by other obstacles such as tighter lending standards which pose problems, particularly for first-time home buyers holding student debt. After being burnt by lax lending during the subprime crisis, banks have gone to the other extreme as evidenced by latest data from the New York Fed which shows 58% of new mortgage originations this year has gone to borrowers with credit scores 760 and above. As today’s Hot Charts show, that’s the tightest mortgage standards in over a decade.

  • Fake News Meme Going Viral

    You’ve gotta give them credit.  The plot, the plan, the conspiracy – it’s really well thought out, well funded – well executed.  Bravo!  It’s like a well planned ballet.  In ballet, to acheive excellence, complete cooperation and syncrhonicity is required.  Look what I found in my Twitter today from some Big Lebowski zombie:

     

     

    The ‘fake news’ in question was from a Zero Hedge article “Why the Elite Hate Russia” that was written by Global Intel Hub during the election, in order to counterbalance some of the “Russian Propaganda” coming from the CIA/Illuminati basement in rural Virginia (you know the location).  

    They are moving so quickly to put the genie back in the bottle it’s alarming.  The DOD originally created the internet initially for legitimate military purposes (secure communication) and as an aside wireless technology was developed during world war 2 and actively used in combat (field phones).  Anyway once the internet was ‘released’ it clearly was a mistake, but not something they could stop.  Even a Rockefeller himself admitted ‘it would be better if the internet didn’t exist:’ 

    First things first, read this article by a New Yorker reporter who seems to be a mainstream journalist that has actually investigated Russian Propaganda as it exists in the ‘real’ world, not as created by Rockefellers in USA in a Hollywood Studio:

    I can report that the spokesman was an American man, probably in his thirties or forties, who was well versed in Internet culture and swore enthusiastically. He said that the group numbered about forty people. “I can say we have people who work for major tech companies and people who have worked for the government in different regards, but we’re all acting in a private capacity,” he said. “One thing we’re all in agreement about is that Russia should not be able to fuck with the American people. That is not cool.” The spokesman said that the group began with fewer than a dozen members, who came together while following Russia’s invasion of eastern Ukraine. The crisis was accompanied by a flood of disinformation designed to confuse Ukraine and its allies. “That was a big wake-up call to us. It’s like, wait a minute, Russia is creating this very effective fake-news propaganda in conjunction with their military operation on the ground,” the spokesman said. “My God, if they can do that there, why can’t they do it here?” PropOrNot has said that the group includes Ukrainian-Americans, though the spokesman laughed at the suggestion that they were Ukrainian agents. PropOrNot has claimed total financial and editorial independence.

    Given PropOrNot’s shadowy nature and the shoddiness of its work, I was puzzled by the group’s claim to have worked with Senator Ron Wyden’s office. In an e-mail, Keith Chu, a spokesman for Wyden, told me that the PropOrNot team reached out to the office in late October. Two of the group’s members, an ex-State Department employee and an I.T. researcher, described their research. “It sounded interesting, and tracked with reporting on Russian propaganda efforts,” Chu wrote. After a few phone calls with the members, it became clear that Wyden’s office could not validate the group’s findings. Chu advised the group on press strategy and suggested some reporters that it might reach out to. “I told them that if they had findings, some kind of document that they could share with reporters, that would be helpful,” he told me. Chu said that Wyden’s office played no role in creating the report and didn’t endorse the findings. Nonetheless, he added, “There has been bipartisan interest in these kind of Russian efforts, including interference in elections, for some time now, including from Senator Wyden.” This week, Wyden and six other senators sent a letter to the White House asking it to declassify information “concerning the Russian Government and the U.S. election.”

    The story of PropOrNot should serve as a cautionary tale to those who fixate on malignant digital influences as a primary explanation for Trump’s stunning election. The story combines two of the most popular technological villains of post-election analysis—fake news and Russian subterfuge—into a single tantalizing package. Like the most effective Russian propaganda, the report weaved together truth and misinformation.

    Bogus news stories, which overwhelmingly favored Trump, did flood social media throughout the campaign, and the hack of the Clinton campaign chair John Podesta’s e-mail seems likely to have been the work of Russian intelligence services. But, as harmful as these phenomena might be, the prospect of legitimate dissenting voices being labelled fake news or Russian propaganda by mysterious groups of ex-government employees, with the help of a national newspaper, is even scarier. Vasily Gatov told me, “To blame internal social effects on external perpetrators is very Putinistic.”

    This PropOrNot is clearly a Soros funded psy-op.  But it’s amateurish, it’s pathetic.  It’s amazing people really believe this stuff.  But this is coming from a group of people who previously, just believed everything they saw on TV.  Now that they are ‘surprised’ Trump was elected, they are searching the net for answers, looking at sites they didn’t look before (like Drudge, Zero Hedge, and many others).  They still doubt anything they see ‘online’ because clearly, TV is the only real authority for information, not ‘the internets’.  

    Facebook was their first attempt to seize control of the internet as a new social control mechanism, but that is largely failing.  Facebook does control a certain marginal percentage of the population but those with above room temperature IQ are not so susceptible for such easy manipulation.  So post-election they’re going into overdrive.  Fortunately, part of the dichotomy we witnessed during the election was also in parallel with the ‘digital divide’ with those more ‘technically savvy’ people being pro-Trump (although this is a reality the perception in the MSM is the opposite, as Silicon Valley backed Clinton, this was only the billionaire class and liberals, women, minorities, and others – the majority of tech savvy computer users backed Trump).  This means that the ‘establishment’ that Trump defeated, they’re not too technically savvy.  Sure, they can hire the best and the brightest with their money, but this too was a huge failure, as Clinton hired some unprofessional goons who allowed themselves to be taped in real time speaking about corruption and illegal activities for all to see.  So childish.  They can’t even decide who is a good subcontractor!  Fortunately, globalintelhub.com wasn’t listed on their list, but zerohedge.com is – and we are a major contributor.  Actually, ZeroHedge is the best ‘real news’ source of market info, maybe only in the same class as bloomberg (which is, a ‘real news’ agency although biased by a billionaire liberal owner).  

    In the recent vote about Russian Propaganda, only a small few in the house voted against it.

    On November 30, one week after the Washington Post launched its witch hunt against “Russian propaganda fake news“, with 390 votes for, the House quietly passed “H.R. 6393, Intelligence Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2017“, sponsored by California Republican Devin Nunes (whose third largest donor in 2016 is Google parent Alphabet, Inc), a bill which deals with a number of intelligence-related issues, including Russian propaganda, or what the government calls propaganda, and hints at a potential crackdown on “offenders.”

    A quick skim of the bill reveals “Title V—Matters relating to foreign countries”,  whose Section 501 calls for the government to “counter active measures by Russia to exert covert influence … carried out in  coordination with, or at the behest of, political leaders or the security services of the Russian Federation and the role of the Russian Federation has been hidden or not acknowledged publicly.”

    The section lists the following definitions of media manipulation:


    • Establishment or funding of a front group.
    • Covert broadcasting.
    • Media manipulation.
    • Disinformation and forgeries.
    • Funding agents of influence.
    • Incitement and offensive counterintelligence.
    • Assassinations.
    • Terrorist acts.

     

    As ActivistPost correctly notes, it is easy to see how this law, if passed by the Senate and signed by the president, could be used to target, threaten, or eliminate so-called “fake news” websites, a list which has been used to arbitrarily define any website, or blog, that does not share the mainstream media’s proclivity to serve as the Public Relations arm of a given administration.

    Curiously, the bill which was passed on November 30, was introduced on November 22, two days before the Washington Post published its Nov. 24 article citing “experts” who claim Russian propaganda helped Donald Trump get elected.

    Anyone who is aware of how the world works (if you aren’t, you can read a list of books here to see how the world really works, or checkout Splitting Pennies) should be extremely ALARMED by this!  Everyone has probably heard of the term ‘wire fraud’ -this was a catch all crime used by the FBI for more than 50 years to ensnare virtually anyone they wanted to convict for any crime.  Wire fraud is “financial fraud involving the use of telecommunications or information technology.”

    Which is a pretty broad, general definition.  So many criminals who they couldn’t find evidence for their crimes, they would charge them with ‘wire fraud’ which was the bureaus goto law created for the purpose of convicting criminals without the need of ‘smoking gun’ evidence which was in many cases, like the JFK investigation, IMPOSSIBLE to find.  

    Fortunately, they aren’t so powerful – they are unpopular, and seem to be a dying breed.  But we should prepare – we shouldn’t hope!  We have to get on the offensive, this is what going viral is all about!

    Free HD Windows / Phone background by Vector Informatics

    Dum spiro spero  “While I breathe, I hope

     

  • Is The US Government Behind The Fake News Media Attacks On President-Elect Trump?

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    Eric Zuesse has brought to our attention that US intelligence officials have placed a story in Buzzfeed, “a Democratic party mouthpiece,” that the Russian government used fake news to get Donald Trump elected president.
    According to Buzzfeed:

    “US intelligence officials believe Russia helped disseminate fake and propagandized news as part of a broader effort to influence and undermine the presidential election, two US intelligence sources told BuzzFeed News.

     

    ‘They’re doing this continuously, that’s a known fact,’ one US intelligence official said, requesting anonymity to discuss the sensitive national security issue.

     

    ‘This is beyond propaganda, that’s my understanding,’ the second US intelligence official said. The official said they believed those efforts likely included the dissemination of completely fake news stories. …

     

    One intelligence official said, ‘In the context, did Russia attempt to influence the US elections; the aperture is as wide as it can possibly be.’” ‘The real unanswered question is, why did they do it?’ the second US intelligence official said. ‘Is it because they love Donald Trump? Because they hated Hillary Clinton? Or just because they like undermining Western democracies?’”

    Who are these US intelligence officials who are portraying the president-elect of the United States to be a “Putin stooge, a tool of Russia”? Once in office, Trump must investigate these hostile elements in US intelligence who are working to discredit the US president and the American people who voted him into office.

    As one reader pointed out, those who debunk “conspiracy theories,” that is, explanations that they do not like, now have a conspiracy theory of their own: Vladimir Putin used independent American websites to elect Trump with fake news. Only voters living in a few large coastal cities were immune to the fake news.

    In other words, the presstitute media has lost control over Americans’ minds to Putin.

    With an opponent this powerful, neoconservatives better think a dozen times before fomenting any more tension with the Kremlin.

    Open the link above to Zeusse’s column and look at the cover of Time magazine. This cover delegitimizes the presidential election. Which US intelligence agency planted this cover on Time? President Trump must have the Secret Service investigate this attack from inside the US government on the US President. Congress, both House and Senate, should immediately summon Time magazine to hearings under oath. This interference by US intelligence in American political life is illegal. Those responsible must be discovered, indicted, convicted, and sentenced. Otherwise fake news will displace facts as Americans are wrapped in a Matrix inside a Matrix.

    Three hundred and ninety opponents of the US Constitution, who sit in the US House of Representatives, just passed a bill that voids the First Amendment to the US Constitution.

    Title V of the bill establishes an interagency executive branch committee “to counter active measures by the Russian Federation to exert covert influence.” Russian manipulation of US media (a routine practice of the US government) to spread disinformation (fake news) is one of the “active measures by Russia” to be countered. In other words, websites that do not participate in the demonization of Russia and President Putin will be subjected to McCarthyite suspicions and accusations. Countering is an open-ended activity that easily extends to enforcement actions against suspected parties.

    If this bill becomes law, it can be used to discredit and destroy truthtellers as agents of foreign intelligence.

    In other words, the message is: if you dispute our lies you are a foreign agent and subject to arrest or elimination.

    This is the state of democracy in America today.

    More than any other country, the United States needs to be liberated. Can Trump do it?

  • EU Demands Facebook, Twitter, Google and Microsoft Cede to Their Anti-Hate Speech Laws

    There’s so much hate out there. The EU has decided they’re going to do something about it, god damn it. All of the damned, fucking, voters running astray this year must have the autocrats going apeshit trying to figure out ways to suppress populism. As such, the EU is demanding that US tech giants comply with their demands to curtail ‘hate speech’ else be literally forced to do so — according to law. The laws are designed to protect migrants streaming into the EU, raping and pillaging along the way.

    Europeans, you must comply.

    source: Reuters

    The European Union (EU) executive’s warning comes six months after the companies signed up to a voluntary code of conduct to take action in Europe within 24 hours, following rising concerns triggered by the refugee crisis and terror attacks.
     
    This included removing or disabling access to the content if necessary, better cooperation with civil society organizations and the promotion of “counter-narratives” to hate speech.

     
    Such as propaganda, like the correct the record shills? Counter-narratives.
     

    The code of conduct is largely a continuation of efforts that the companies already take to counter hate speech on their websites, such as developing tools for people to report hateful content and training staff to handle such requests.

     
    The EU Justice Commission wants tech companies to censor speech at a much faster pace than the current 80% after 48 hours. Permitting 20% of speech that is deemed hateful to be disseminated after 48 hours is 20% too much, according to the Commissioner Vera Jourova.

    “If Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and Microsoft want to convince me and the ministers that the non-legislative approach can work, they will have to act quickly and make a strong effort in the coming months,” Jourova told the Financial Times.
     
    Jourova’s report showed an uneven pace across the 28-country bloc, with the removal rate of racist posts in Germany and France above 50 percent, but just 11 percent in Austria and 4 percent in Italy.

     
    Coincidentally, the Italians just told the EU to fuck off this evening, voting against the referendum. I suppose they’re all a bunch of racist bastards.

    EU justice ministers will meet in Brussels to discuss the report on Thursday. They are also expected to ask the companies to clarify issues including taking down “terrorist propaganda” and helping provide evidence to convict foreign fighters.

     
    How nice of them to also include the censorship of terrorists. Kiss your free speech goodbye Europe. The EU has gone full Soviet Union with the aim to suppress freedom of expression.

     

    Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

  • "Pizzagate" Explodes After Man Arrested In Comet Restaurant Shooting

    Pizzagate took a turn for the even more bizarre on Sunday, as a man with an assault rifle walked into Comet Ping Pong to "self-investigate" the Baltimore, Maryland, pizza parlor that internet conspiracy theorists say is at the center of an international child sex ring run by prominent Democrats. 28-year-old Edgar Maddison Welch, of Salisbury, N.C., reportedly fired the rifle at least once inside the restaurant but no one was injured.

    As HeatSt.com reports, Washington, D.C., police arrested the man Sunday afternoon, after restaurant employees saw a man, described as being in his early 20s and carrying an “assault rifle,” work his way through the dining room and then attempt to enter the staff work area at the back of the building.

    Restaurant workers acted quickly, getting staff and patrons—including a number of children—to safety and dialing 911. Authorities were quick to respond. They subdued and arrested the man and secured the restaurant. No one was injured.

     The Washington Post noted that the incident caused panic, with several businesses going into lockdown as police swarmed the neighborhood after receiving the call shortly before 3 p.m.

    Police said 28-year-old Edgar Maddison Welch, of Salisbury, N.C., walked in the front door of Comet Ping Pong and pointed a firearm in the direction of a restaurant employee. The employee was able to flee and notify police. Police said Welch proceeded to discharge the rifle inside the restaurant.

     

    The man told police he had come to the restaurant to “self-investigate” the election-related conspiracy theory.

     

    Police said in addition to the assault rifle, they also recovered two firearms inside the restaurant; an additional weapon was recovered in Welch’s car. Bomb-sniffing dogs and at least one armored vehicle were present at the scene.

     

    He has been charged with assault with a dangerous weapon.

    DC Police Press Release on the arrest…

    One can't help but wonder, as Congress considers a bill “to counter active measures by the Russian Federation to exert covert influence,” whether this is yet another false flag to raise awareness of what is a possible outcome of "fake news"?

     

  • Don't Want A Muslim Registry? Abolish The Census

    Submitted by Alice Salles via The Mises Institute,

    As President-elect Donald Trump met with Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach — a potential pick for head of the Department of Homeland Security — the internet lit up with the leaked contents of their meeting, triggering another round of talks concerning a possible “national registry” of Americans or immigrants who subscribe to Islam.

    While Kobach’s plan involves the George W. Bush-era National Security Entry-Exit Registration System (NSEERS) — a system that remained in place under President Barack Obama until 2011 (only to be replaced with a more comprehensive program) — few caught up to the fact NSEERS only involves the collection and crosschecking of data pertaining to immigrants coming to the United States from Muslim-majority countries. But as news sources ran with the story that Trump could eventually turn this into a registry of American Muslims and immigrants already living in the country, the president-elect’s spokesman Jason Miller reassured the public that no, a registry system targeting Muslims was not in the cards for the Trump administration.

    Nevertheless, there is one event in our country’s history that serves as a precedent for a system that could effectively single out and help report on specific Americans and immigrants. But the US government would never be able to put it in place if it wasn’t for the presence of the Census Bureau, an agency that costs billions of taxpayer dollars yearly.

    In a recent piece for USA Today, James Bovard explained that the Census Bureau sends “its hefty American Community Survey to more than 3 million households a year,” collecting personal information regarding the resident’s religion, ethnic background, employment history, and even if the resident in question has “difficulty remembering, concentrating or making decisions.”

    While the agency threatens those taking the survey with a $5,000 fine for failing to comply with its demands, it never had to answer to its blatant disregard for the law in the 1940s, when the US government had access to information on Japanese Americans thanks to the data collected by Census workers. With detailed information in hand, the Army eventually rounded Japanese Americans up, throwing them in internment camps and making this period in the history of the country one of the most infamous legacies of Democratic President Franklin D. Roosevelt.

    In his piece, Bovard added that the detentions are now “widely recognized … as among the largest civil liberties violations in modern U.S. history,” prompting Congress to vote to compensate victims in 1988. But despite the shame often associated with this episode, it wasn’t until the early 2000s that research unveiled documents proving that the Census Bureau had been an important part in this charade, prompting the agency to admit culpability — but only to a certain extent.

    To this day, the Census Bureau claims it never provided names and addresses of all Japanese Americans. But despite the bureau’s claims, a study carried out by William Seltzer of Fordham University and Margo Anderson of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee proved the Secret Service had access to, at least, all the names and addresses of individuals of Japanese ancestry in the Washington, D.C. area thanks to the bureau.

    So if you are concerned that the United States government could — under a Trump administration or a future administration — round up any group of Americans and immigrants based solely on their religion or another particular characteristic, tackling the power and inquisitiveness of the US Census Bureau would be a great first step, helping to trim the government’s power and ensure the privacy and Fourth Amendment rights of all individuals are being properly protected.

  • And Then There Was One

    So much has changed in just the 8 months since April 25, 2016, when this “White House Photo” of the day was taken.

    As Will Jordan notes, the photo showed a meeting of the world’s top political leaders, President Barack Obama talking with European leaders before their meeting in Hannover, Germany.

    From left: British Prime Minister David Cameron, the President, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande, and Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi.

    As of this evening, of the five, just one remains on the global political scene. The real question is for how much longer.

  • These Countries Have Nearly "Eliminated Cash From Circulation"

    The cashless society is catching up to all of us. As SHTFPlan.com's Mac Slavo notes,

    Most of Europe has shifted that way, and now India is forcing the issue. In the United States, people are being acclimated to it, and may soon find that no other option is practical in the highly-digitized online world.

     

    Once that takes hold, the banksters, bureaucrats and hackers will have total information on all your transactions, purchasing behavior, profiles about consumers, political and social background history and even predictive behavior, allowing them to control the population with ease.

     

    If/when a major crisis hits, nothing will work if the grid goes down; nothing will take place that isn’t strictly authorized – apart from a barter and precious metals exchange system that will be marginalized to the pre-digital ghetto.

    In fact, as The Daily Coin's Rory Hall explains 1 out of 3 people in the world never uses cash

    We recently learned how serious these criminals are about stealing the sovereignty of every person on planet earth. Actually, most people are willingly handing over their sovereignty to the banks/government and have no idea what they are actually doing.

    When India banned (made illegal) the 500 and 1000 rupee banknote this move effected every 1 out of 7 people on planet earth. That means that every 7th person, anywhere and everywhere, you come in contact with may have been effected by this cash ban.

    Our individual sovereignty is tied directly to our ability to move freely about. When every step we make is tracked by the bank/government our sovereignty is gone forever. Freely trading commerce is one of the cornerstones of human sovereignty. Without the ability to conduct business with whom we wish, when we wish we are nothing more than cattle to the overlords of the land.

    An expat living in Thailand sent me an email last week, at the height of India blowing apart because the idiotic decision by Prime Minister Modi to eliminate the two most used bank notes in India. The email was to inform me that Thailand would be implementing a new policy in the early part of 2017 to completely eliminate coins from circulation. South Korea has already taken measures to eliminate coins from circulation.

    Here is a google translation from the Korean website wikitree.co.kr (once you arrive you will need to translate from Korean language)

    From next year, you can get the change of cash that you bought and paid at a convenience store on your transportation card.

     

    In the mid to long term, not only transportation cards but also remittance to credit cards and accounts will be promoted, and the industry will be expanded to retail sector such as marts and pharmacies.

     

    The Bank of Korea announced on the 21st [November] that it will provide a service to charge prepaid transportation cards at convenient stores from the first half of next year (2017) as the first stage of the demonstration project to realize “a society without coins”.

    What’s happening in Thailand? Well, the government doesn’t even bother with trying to cover up the “scheme” to move people onto the tax farm – currency enslavement awaits for all that enter the great Bangkok Baht giveaway!!!

    According to Bangkok.Coconuts.co (published in July 2016):

    “Want to win a million baht? Go for e-payment,” says Thailand’s junta, offering a lucky draw as an incentive to use the new online payment scheme “PromptPay.” The government wants to encourage citizens to use the service for business, in an effort to bring some of the massive informal Thai economy onto the books and boost tax revenues.

     

    As Southeast Asian economies struggle and tax income misses budget targets, Thailand’s finance minister is hopeful that a nationwide e-payment scheme can add tax revenue of THB100 billion a year to the coffers.

     

    Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong has estimated the move will save banks and businesses a combined THB75 billion a year, though other policymakers expect it could take some time for businesses to change their habits. Cash and checks now make up 80 percent of transactions.

     

    A coup in May 2014 ended months of political unrest, but the generals have struggled to revive Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy as exports and consumption remain weak.

    What about the most populace country on the planet: China? Well, they are, currently, in fourth place in use of digitized currency behind the U.S., Europe and Brazil. While none of these countries have eliminated cash from circulation, the banks/government make is sound “trendy”, convenient and oh so cool to never use cash. Why force a policy change when you can convince the people to hand over their freewill?

    Although China still has some way to go before it catches up with countries such as the US and Sweden, the speed at which China has made the shift from cash towards cashless has surprised many. Non-cash payments have been growing by around 40 per cent a year and last year China moved into 4th place in the world for non-cash payments after the US, Europe and Brazil.
     
    There are many reasons for China’s rapid transition away from cash. One is urbanisation, as non-cash payments are becoming both easy and popular. This is especially the case in top-tier cities such as Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing where it is both trendy and convenient to pay without using cash.
     
    There is a huge variety of choices when it comes to making cashless payments and China UnionPay has definitely helped to encourage this, particularly in the case of debit cards, which outnumber credit cards in China by 10 to one. China has more than 4 billion cards on issue – almost enough for each adult to have about three each.
     
    Mobile payments have also taken off in China – it has the largest proportion of people in the world using their mobile phones to make payments, online and physically. Source

    The purpose of going cashless is not for our “convenience”, it is specifically for the purpose of “saving the banks” and tax collections. Governments and banks could care-less about what is convenient for us. They are only concerned with how much of our wealth they can extract from every person who has any currency.

    The population of South Korea is 50.22 million people or said another way about 1/6th the size of the United States. India, on the other hand, is populated by 1.33 BILLION people while there are 7.4 BILLION populating the world. With Thailand making moves to remove cash/coins from the people we need to add their population to the mix as well. With more than 68.22 Million people this brings the number of people that are being forced by their government to use digital currency to a whopping 1.45 BILLION people. If you add 40% of China’s population of 1.35 BILLION that equates to approximately 540 million people the number of people currently living within a cashless society breaches 2 Billion people or said another way 1 out of every 3.5 people we come into contact with everyday. Every 4th person you greet has nothing to do with cash. This does not take in account the top 3 nations using digitized currency for their transactions. If the U.S., Europe and Brazil were calculated we would be well below 1 out of 3 people never using cash for any transaction.

    Some people that are reading this are telling themselves “so what?” those are distant far off lands that have nothing to do with the U.S. and this will never happen here. Well, not so fast.

    Larry Summers, who is like an embedded tick at the Treasury Department of the United States, has called for the elimination of the $100 bill. With the elimination of the largest denominated bank note from circulation this would effectively kill the use of cash. Why? Because it would eliminate most of the total cash value from circulation in one-fell-swoop.

    With $1.2 trillion in cash in circulation, as of July 2013 (now three year old information), not just in the United States but around the world, removing the $100 bill would deal a serious blow to the cash balance in circulation. Maybe not the amount of pieces of paper, but the cash value removed would be huge. Imagine going to a casino and hitting a blackjack table for $2,000 and the cashier hands you bundles of $50 bills (40) or worse, bundles of $20 bills (100)! $2,000 payout at a casino is not that a big deal. Having to handle the sheer volume of bank notes could potentially be a problem for the person receiving the windfall of paper.

    If you have any misguided notion that a cashless society is not coming, just keep telling yourself that every time you use a debit card, credit card or your phone for your next purchase. With the elimination of cash we effectively hand over our individual human sovereignty to the banks and the government.

    *  *  *

    Finally we leave you with Harvard's latest study on which nations would 'benefit' the most from going cashless

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Today’s News 4th December 2016

  • Democrat Strategist on CNN Said ‘We Don’t Need White People Leading Democrats Now’

    When asked by two CNN shills who she thought should be the next Chair of the DNC, democrat statagist, and former Bernie Sanders spokeswoman, Symone Sanders said ‘we don’t need white people leading the democrats now.’ Instead, she felt someone of a darker persuasion should lead them, in order to best represent ‘diversity.’ Apparently, diversity doesn’t include all races — just the ones that aren’t white — according to Symone. If you recall, Symone mocked the Trump supporter that was viciously beaten by thugs — saying ‘oh my god poor white people,’ when asked about the harrowing event. The problem isn’t Symone. There are lots of racists pigs like her, traversing the globe spreading their demented version of hatred. The issue that I take with these comments is the platform from which she’s allotted to make them, the global network of CNN. Notice how the two cucks next to her didn’t even bother to call out her bullshit, with the flaccid male sitting there just nodding his head? The good news is, these people are weak. Their ideas and schemes crumble very easily; because at the heart of progressive ideologies is a sickness whose columns and tenets fall one by one after just a very small amount of inspection. Populism is on the rise and the culture wars will be won by people wholly interested in freedom — rejecting the superstate and all of its trimmings. The perversion and the lies will not last the test of time and history will remember them as fleeting symbols that result when corruption intermingles with zeal — the deadliest of concoctions, which stands at the precipice, right now, of erasing the democratic party from existence.

    Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

  • Redneck Investin Part 4 – Free on the Fringe

    Seems yall didn’t quite get the gist of our series – and why it should even be bothered to appear.  Well, a few reasons.  One, not everyone has the means of investing in ‘decent’ strategies that may only be eligible for accredited investors or QEPs.  Two, those who don’t have the means to invest in $1 M minimum programs also don’t have the means of educating themselves to the level that they can do it themselves successfully.  Three, this analysis can shift your thinking and help improve your existing investing strategy.  Rednecks survive on inspiration as well as perspiration (although, most don’t shower daily).  

    Soros has backed the blacks; they now have a voice, and they have funding.  Who speaks for bubba?  Let’s Git-R-Dun!  WARNING- IF THESE SUGGESTIONS BORDER ON THE QUASI LEGAL, POTENTIALLY UNETHICAL- NOTE THAT THEY ARE FOR ENTERTAINMENT PUPOSES ONLY.  KIDS, DON’T TRY THIS AT HOME.  PARENTS, DON’T TRY THIS AT WORK!

    1) Free Money Claims

    The class action industry produces thousands of settlements each year.  Many of them are consumer settlements.  And many consumers don’t even know about claims they may be entitled to.  Every case is different, but in almost all cases only a small fraction of potential claimants register with the settlement administrator.  Legally, once a settlement is reached, funds must be distributed to injured consumers by a certain date.  If all claimants do not complete the paperwork by the deadline, funds will be distributed on a pro rata basis to the claimants that do.  Here’s one site that lists consumer claims: http://www.freemoneyclaims.com

    2) Give plasma, get paid

    This is a known goto when you need money for the hobo class and college students.  However, many think ‘giving blood’ makes you dizzy, and it’s possible to get diseases.  Well, now they need the ‘plasma’ from the blood, which is a little different – and well, what free stuff doesn’t involve a little risk?  No it’s probably completely safe, although check the clinic before you go!

    3) Start a charity

    In most states, 501(c)(3) corporations can be filed without fee, or for a nominal fee such as $25.  In many states, there are no annual filing fees, and no annual taxes!  Donations made to your charity are tax deductible.  Plus – you’re doing a good deed for your chosen cause.  Pick a good one, nothing dubious like ‘helping my neighbor’ that won’t fly.  Scientific and Technological development is always good.  Pay yourself a hefty administration salary (you’ll have to pay taxes on your income, for this) and the charity will have some reasonable expenses.  You can literally go door to door and raise money for your charity.  Special fundraising rules apply for example you CAN SPAM as long as you follow the CAN SPAM rules, and you can telemarket to people on the DNC (Do Not Call) list so long as you are raising money for your charity and not your business.  

    4) Go to food banks – get free food

    Food banks exist everywhere, at churches, schools, and privately funded too.  They’re all over America, and there’s no requirements to get food.  Just show up, and provide an ID.  If you don’t have ID, that’s ok.  They just don’t want people ‘abusing’ the system.  Beware that some of the dates of the food may be a little ‘over’ the due date.  Don’t let that scare you – it’s good for digestion.

    When all else fails – revert to the freeloader in you – checkout www.pleaseorderit.com/free

    With Trump in office being a Redneck can be FUN and PROFITABLE don’t let your preconceived notions or visions of trailer parks cloud your path toward Redneck Nirvana.

    “Everyone has a Redneck cousin” -Jimmy Buffet (redneck paraphrase “everybody has a cousin in Miami”)

  • Tomorrow's Vote In Italy Will Be A "Wide-Ranging F**k Off", And It's Just The Start…

    Submitted by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

    Tomorrow, December 4, Italy is holding a referendum that will determine the fate of the entire European Union.

    Donald Trump’s victory—which shocked Europe’s political and media elite—gives the populists backing the “No” side of Italy’s referendum the political rocket fuel they need for a virtually guaranteed win.

    That momentum will be all but impossible to reverse. Anti-elite sentiment is rising on both sides of the Atlantic. And I bet the global populist revolution will continue.

    If Italians buck the establishment—and it looks like they will—it will clear a path for a populist party to take power and for Italy to exit the euro.

    If that happens, the fallout will be catastrophic for global markets. The Financial Times recently put it this way:

    An Italian exit from the single currency would trigger the total collapse of the eurozone within a very short period.

    It would probably lead to the most violent economic shock in history, dwarfing the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008 and the 1929 Wall Street crash.

    If the FT is even partially right, we’re looking at a possible stock market crash of historic proportions. This is why we’re watching the December 4 referendum so closely.

    The referendum is meant to concentrate more power in Italy’s central government. On that point alone, everyone should oppose it. The centralization of power never leads to good things.

    A “Yes” vote is effectively a vote of confidence in the current pro-EU Italian establishment. This is what the global elite wants.

    A “No” vote is how the average Italian can give the finger to the faceless EU bureaucrats in Brussels, whom many blame—quite correctly—for their problems.

    Trump’s win has been a double whammy for Italy’s pro-EU establishment.

    First, it emboldens the populist forces fighting the referendum.

    Second, it humiliates and politically castrates Matteo Renzi, the current Italian prime minister. Renzi took a rare step when he openly endorsed Hillary Clinton. He was the only European leader to do so.

    As one of Renzi’s rivals said after Trump’s victory, “Matteo Renzi is politically finished from today, he’s a dead man walking.”

    Other Italian politicians are furious that he weakened Italy’s standing with the new Trump administration.

    It’s hard to see how Renzi could get himself out of the hole he’s dug.

    It Started as a Joke

    In 2007, Beppe Grillo, an Italian actor and comedian, launched Vaffanculo Day. “Vaffanculo” is Italian for “f*** off.”

    Grillo and his followers used V-Day to bluntly express their displeasure with Italian establishment politicians, using imagery from the movie V for Vendetta.

    Now, what started out as a joke has become Italy’s most popular political party…

    V-Day helped organize Italians frustrated with their political system. It gave birth to the Five Star Movement, Italy’s new populist political party.

    Grillo’s Five Star Movement—or M5S, its Italian acronym—is anti-globalist, anti-euro, and anti-establishment. It doesn’t neatly fall into the left–right political paradigm.

    According to the latest polls, M5S is now the most popular party in Italy. It won mayoral elections in Rome and Turin earlier this year.

    M5S is riding a wave of populist anger at entrenched political elites over economic stagnation. Italy has had virtually no productive growth since joining the eurozone in 1999.

    M5S blames Italy’s chronic lack of growth on the euro. A large plurality of Italians agrees.

    M5S has promised to hold a vote to leave the euro and return to Italy’s old currency, the lira, as soon as it’s in power. Under the current circumstances, it would probably pass.

    After the Brexit vote and Trump’s win, M5S has joyfully predicted that Renzi will be the next casualty in the global populist revolution.

    Grillo recently wrote:

    It's crazy. This is the explosion of an era. It's the apocalypse of the media, TV, the big newspapers, the intellectuals, the journalists… This is a wide-ranging F*** off. Trump has pulled off an incredible V-Day… There are similarities between this American story and the Movement.

    A “No” vote in the December 4 referendum means M5S could come to power in a matter of months.

    Melting Like a Gelato in the August Sun

    A populist tsunami is about to wash through Europe. It will drastically change the Continent’s political landscape in a way not seen since before World War II.

    This wave will flush away traditional “mainstream” parties and usher in anti-establishment populists who want to leave the European Union.

    It’s already hit the UK in the form of Brexit, killing David Cameron’s pro-EU government in the process.

    Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Slovenia, and Greece already have populist, Eurosceptic—or “non-mainstream”—parties in power.

    Italy is the next flashpoint.

    A “No” vote in Italy is virtually assured at this point.

    But it won’t be the end of the anti-elite surge. Voters in Europe’s biggest countries could soon throw out their “mainstream” parties in favor of populist and Eurosceptic alternatives.

    Here’s the rundown…

    Austria

    Austria is holding a presidential election, also on December 4. It’s actually a redo of an election held in May, where a populist candidate, Norbert Hofer of the Freedom Party, barely lost.

    Austrian courts found irregularities in the results and ordered a prompt new election. But when opinion polls showed the populist candidate in the lead, the government delayed the vote until December 4, giving a lame excuse about faulty adhesive on absentee ballots. Despite the foot-dragging, Mr. Hofer looks set to win the December 4 vote.

    France

    France has a presidential election next spring. There’s a chance that Marine Le Pen, leader of the Eurosceptic National Front party, will do better than many expect. After more than a decade of disappointment under presidents François Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy, French voters are clamoring for something different.

    Spain

    Spain recently re-elected incumbent Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. However, Spanish voters fled traditional political parties en masse for new populist upstarts Podemos and Ciudadanos. So Rajoy was unable to form a majority government.

    Rajoy now leads a severely weak minority government. The political power of the Spanish populist parties is only expected to grow.

    Germany

    Angela Merkel, the chancellor of Germany, embodies the European establishment more than any other politician. Her party suffered a series of stinging defeats in regional elections this year, mostly because of her signature lax immigration policies, which have flooded Germany with migrants.

    Merkel’s troubles have only helped the Alternative for Germany, a new populist party surging in popularity. The party could pose a real problem for Merkel in the 2017 federal elections.

    The Netherlands

    As the Netherlands approaches elections in March, Geert Wilders’s Party for Freedom, which advocates leaving the EU, is basically tied in opinion polls with the establishment parties.

    How to Profit from the Tsunami…

    As populist, Eurosceptic parties surge, the entire European Union is looking shakier by the day.

    One Italian politician correctly put it this way: “The euro is melting away like a gelato left out in the August sun.”

    Our thesis for the collapse of the EU not only stands… it’s getting stronger and stronger.

    There are potentially severe consequences in the currency and stock markets. We are approaching a global financial meltdown of historical proportions. It could strike America on December 4, 2016, as Italian voters decide the fate of the European Union itself.

    It could either wipe out a big part of your savings… or be the fortune-building opportunity of a lifetime.

    New York Times best-selling author Doug Casey and I just released an urgent video with all the details. Click here to watch it now.

  • A Very Concise Explanation Of Why The Democrats Lost (And Will Keep Losing)

    Via Jesse's Cafe Americain blog,

    "This whole 'red scare' thing has become so thoroughly ridiculous, so blatantly propagandist and overblown, so pervasively passed around by mainstream media outlets without serious investigation, so obviously picked up off a shelf in ad hoc convenience, and so completely hypocritical by the professional elite, that I am tempted to write it off and forget about it. But I should probably be deeply troubled for other reasons.

     

    It is a sign of the establishment going further off the deep end, and further dropping its pretenses. It is a sign of a desperate elite that will say anything, do anything, and risk everything to control the narrative and protect itself.

     

    We are descending into farce. Deeply dangerous farce."

     

    Reader M. M.

    This is a short video from Thomas Frank.  (I have included two more short videos that are optional.)

    Every pundit who is grinding their axes about the various forces that unjustly took the election from Hillary needs to listen to this.

    Thomas Frank is absolutely right. Everyone who had their eyes open could see this loss by the Democrats coming, or at the least a much closer race than expected.   Donald Trump certainly saw it, and used it for his advantage.

    And even now, the core political and entertainment establishment clearly is not accepting this, does not care in their cozy complacency.

    A good part of this is because of the credibility trap, and their sense of entitled superiority.

    If you don't believe this, watch the Democratic establishment mouthpiece channels like MSNBC almost any evening.

    I hate to bother you with yet another posting on this subject, but the context of the situation shows that the message needs to be repeated, and driven home in order to penetrate the echo chamber of the Beltway Bubble.

    The widely accepted attitude of the Wall Street Democrats was that the working middle class had 'no where else to go,' and so their interests could be sacrificed, time and again. They chose consciously to spend their energy in the pursuit of specialized big money interests.

    And they were richly rewarded with huge sums of campaign donations, personal speaking 'repayments,' and sinecures during the out-of-office periods that the big money donors could provide.

    The courtiers in the media and big money donors around the world are very put out that their claim checks for the spoils of a Hillary victory were invalidated.  Their outrage and disappointment is remarkable, as if they have somehow been cheated of their due, their turn at the pig sty of public looting.

    They blame racism, the Russians, sexism, Bernie bros, hackers, the 'deplorables' in a bit of an ironic twist on the Romney moment, the electoral college, and even the roots of democratic process itself.

    They and their strategy failed. Spectacularly.

    But they cannot fail, because they are so exceptional. And there is the work to return to the real world for them, in overcoming themselves and their selfish disappointment and cognitive dissonance.

    I have been very clear that I was no supporter of Trump, and could not vote for him in good conscience under almost any circumstances I could imagine.

    But like so many others I could not in good conscience comfortably pick the 'lesser of two evils' in this case, especially after the serial betrayals of the reforms, the reforms he promised and for which he was elected, that we had at the hands of Obama and his party.   The nomination of Hillary was an 'in your face' gesture to the people by the worst of the embedded and outdated elements of a inwardly focused party in its decline.

    The same and worse could be said of the Republicans, but that is another story.  They just were not able to ruthlessly suppress their insurgents as had the DNC.  And if you do not realize that they did so, then you are blinded by your ambitions and should step aside.

    If anything, the antics of the DNC during these primaries showed that their callous disregard for the broader economic interests the people, and the hypocrisy which their self interests enabled, knew no bounds.

    Think of the arrogance of their mindset— vote for our candidate because she is not good, but less bad than the other fellow, and once again you really have no other choice.

    And they wonder why they were so soundly rejected.

    The final refuge of the exceptionally arrogant is to dismiss those who have rejected them, and expect them to come crawling back, asking for another chance.

    This is certainly preferable to admitting that they had the choice of the people and the winning candidate in their own ranks, and defeated him because they could, because it felt good to exercise power and influence once again, especially when it served their own selfish ambitions.

    And in doing so, they defeated themselves.

    But perhaps the people will not submit again, and choose whatever is offered, the less worse of a bad deal.

    Perhaps the political class will have to eventually let go of their delusory arrogance, and face the work, and the pain, of remaking themselves into what they and their party had once represented:  a real constructive and progressive choice, and not just another flavor of less abusive but equally audacious oligarchy.

    For in truth, it is still just another form of arrogant oligarchy that serves itself, albeit under the fig leaf of a rationale of 'public service' in constructing a false moral high ground, that is an inch above the swamp.

    And if they have the time for it, here are two more short videos that need to penetrate the collective consciousness of the party in order for meaningful progress to occur.

  • "Meanwhile In Europe…" – The Big Day Arrives

    Less than a month after the “shocking” election of Donald Trump as US president, the world prepares for another day of political shockwaves, this time out of Europe, when on Sunday all eyes will be on Italy and, to a slightly lesser extent, Austria.

    Or, as Bank of America puts it “Meanwhile in Europe…”

    As we have previewed on various occasions (most recently in Friday’s extensive “Everything You Need To Know About The Italian Referendum & Should Be Afraid To Ask“), in a few short hours, Italy will vote on a constitutional reform referendum. While we urge readers to skim the in depth “walk thru“, here is a simplified version of what happens after the likely “No” vote tomorrow.

    The main concern in the markets – which has manifested itself in both the European currency, its vol structure, as well as Italian bond yields – is that a strong “No” vote will cause Prime Minister Renzi to resign, leading to political instability in Italy. Furthermore, a “No” vote is expected to kill a long-running attempt to rescue Italy’s third largest and oldest bank, Monte dei Paschi, which has been desperate for a private sector bailout ever since it failed this summer’s ECB stress test to avoid broader banking sector contagion; a failure of Monte Paschi will likely spark a fresh eurozone banking crisis, and prompt the ECB to get involved again (as it warned it would do), in a redux of what happened after the Brexit vote.

    Also on Sunday, there is also a presidential election in Austria. A victory by the right-wing candidate, Norbert Hofer, would raise concerns about EU fragmentation because his party has advocated a referendum on EU membership. His victory would also raise concerns about a similar outcome in the French elections in May, and many other upcoming European elections as shown in the calendar at the bottom of this page:

    However, while the Austrian vote will again be down to the wire – and since this time there won’t be any Brussels-endorsed “widespread voting fraud“, Norbert Hofer is assured to win – the key event will be the Italian vote. Here is what to expect in terms of timing:

    • Provisional turnout results from 7pm GMT (2pm ET)
    • Exit polls then expected around 10pm GMT on Sunday night (5pm ET)
    • First projections by Italian pollsters based on counted votes at around 10.45pm GMT (5:45pm ET)
    • Final result will come in around 2am on Monday (9:00pm ET)

    In the highly improbably event the “Yes” vote wins, Deutsche Bank analysts write that a rebound in the Italian equity market should be largely restricted to financial stocks. Although the FTSE MIB is trading at a 15% discount relative to its 10-year average vs. Europe, valuations look substantially less attractive once banks are excluded from the index. The relative P/E of the FTSE MIB ex banks is trading in line with its long-term average vs. Europe ex banks. Several Italian sectors are even trading at a premium vs. their European peers, showing no signs yet of a spillover of banking sector risks.

    That may change in just a few hours.

    The biggest question from tomorrow’s vote, is what happens to Italian PM Renzi should he lose the vote, and as France 24 reports, if voters reject Renzi’s plan to streamline parliament, the centre-left leader has said he will step down.

    The self-styled outsider in a hurry to shake up Italy finds himself on the inside, a target for those who say he has not been quick enough in fixing long-standing problems. For those unfamiliar, here is a brief snapshot of Renzi’s approach, and political options:

    After rapid rise, Italy’s Renzi braced for fall

     

    Renzi was just 39 when he came to power via an internal party coup in February 2014. With his penchant for retro sunglasses, open-necked shirts and jeans, the former mayor of Florence was hailed at the time as a premier for the smartphone generation. But the breath of fresh air is now in danger of being blown away by rival young Turks from populist and far right opposition parties trying to force him out.

     

    After 1,000 days in office, Renzi, now 41, boasted last month of having steered the economy out of recession, got Italians spending again and improved public finances. He has also had significant political victories: a controversial Jobs Act passed, election rules rewritten and his candidate, Sergio Mattarella, installed as president.

     

    As his Twitter follower numbers rose, so too did his international profile. Renzi was feted for his reform efforts by US President Barack Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. “Matteo has the right approach and it is beginning to show results,” Obama said just before treating Renzi and his school teacher wife Agnese to the last official White House dinner of his administration in October.

    But many Italian voters do not share Obama’s optimism. As the recovery has struggled to gain traction — leaving unemployment stubbornly high, particularly among young people — Renzi’s ratings have slipped.

     

    The Jobs Act, which eased hiring and firing, made him business friends but alienated trade unions and the left. A bullish style that was once seen as energetic has come to be viewed by some as high-handed, including by some grandees of his own party. Former Prime Minister Massimo d’Alema, a fervent critic of Renzi’s constitutional proposals, described his successor to the New York Times as a Twitter-obsessed “oaf”. The decline in Renzi’s popularity is relative however. Polls suggest the Democratic Party, under his leadership, would top an election held tomorrow, albeit only just.

     

    Born on January 11, 1975 in Florence, Renzi studied law and took his first steps in politics as a teenage campaign volunteer for future prime minister and European Commission chief Romano Prodi. By 26 he was a full-time organiser for La Margherita (The Daisy), a short-lived centre-left party.

     

    He was only 29 when he became the leader of the province of Florence in 2004, establishing a power base that enabled him to go on to become mayor in 2009 and prime minister five years later. But for a brief spell in his early 20s working for the family advertising business, politics is all he has done and friends say he would be loath to give it up, despite his protestations to the contrary.

    Even if has to make way as premier, he is not expected to give up the party leadership.

    In short, Renzi is still very young, and a failure tomorrow followed by a resignation, means merely a detour for the career politican, not an end. The bigger question, however, is whether Italy is stable enough and its banks solid enough to survive a politidal vacuum wthout a “technocratic” government ready to step in and fill the void. The answer may be revealed as soon as Sunday night when the Euro opens for trading.

    * * *

    There is more to come.

    As Bank of America notes, the common thread in all of these stories is that politics is driving economic outcomes. This dynamic will not change anytime soon, and BofA notes that it is “particularly concerned about the  drift toward protectionism.” The bank notes that the number of trade restrictions globally has already picked up. Data from Global Trade Alert, a group of academic economists, shows an increase in the number of protectionist measures starting in 2012 and accelerating sharply in 2015. These include not just tariffs and quotas, but a range of policies that give  preference to domestic over foreign products.

    An Italian “No” vote simply accelerate the global backlash against globalization, and lead to even more trade protectionist measures. But what is the most likely outcome, is that when the “No” vote wins (despite the endorsement of The Economist, which has gotten the outcome of every major political event this year wrong), it will only push the case for the anti-establishment vote in more European countries, until eventually Europe’s populist forces stretch the European experiment so thin, that the Eurozone itself – an experiment which from day one catered to corporate interests and an established political oligarchy – will collapse under the weight of its own discontents.

    For now, we await the surge in volatility that will emerge tomorrow afternoon, only to mysteriously disappear as every central bank around the globe engages in another BTFD orgy, sending risk assets higher even as the rapidly “isolating” world teeters on the verge of globalized collapse.

  • Trump's Appointments – What Do They Mean?

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    Before I give an explanation, let’s be sure we all know what an explanation is. An explanation is not a justification. The collapse of education in the US is so severe that many Americans, especially younger ones, cannot tell the difference between an explanation and a defense, justification, or apology for what they regard as a guilty person or party. If an explanation is not damning or sufficiently damning of what they want damned, the explanation is interpreted as an excuse for the object of their scorn. In America, reason and objective analysis have taken a backseat to emotion.

    We do not know what the appointments mean except, as Trump discovered once he confronted the task of forming a government, that there is no one but insiders to appoint. For the most part that is correct. Outsiders are a poor match for insiders who tend to eat them alive. Ronald Reagan’s California crew were a poor match for George H.W. Bush’s insiders. The Reagan part of the government had a hell of a time delivering results that Reagan wanted.

    Another limit on a president’s ability to form a government is Senate confirmation of presidential appointees. Whereas Congress is in Republican hands, Congress remains in the hands of special interests who will protect their agendas from hostile potential appointees. Therefore, although Trump does not face partisan opposition from Congress, he faces the power of special interests that fund congressional political campaigns.

    When the White House announced my appointment as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, Republican Senator Bob Dole put a hold on my appointment. Why? Dole had presidential ambitions, and he saw the rising star of Republican Representative Jack Kemp as a potential obstacle. As I had written the Kemp-Roth bill that had become Reagan’s economic policy, Dole regarded me in the Treasury as a one-up for Kemp. So, you see, all sorts of motives can plague a president’s ability to form a government.

    With Trump under heavy attack prior to his inauguration, he cannot afford drawn out confirmation fights and defeats.

    Does Trump’s choice of Steve Mnuchin as Treasury Secretary mean that Goldman Sachs will again be in charge of US economic policy? Possibly, but we do not know. We will have to wait and see. Mnuchin left Goldman Sachs 14 years ago. He has been making movies in Hollywood and started his own investment firm. Many people have worked for Goldman Sachs and the New York Banks who have become devastating critics of the banks. Read Nomi Prins’ books and visit Pam Martens website, Wall Street on Parade. My sometimes coauthor Dave Kranzler is a former Wall Streeter.

    Commentators are jumping to conclusions based on appointees past associations. Mnuchin was an early Trump supporter and chairman of Trump’s finance campaign. He has Wall Street and investment experience. He should be an easy confirmation. For a president-elect under attack this is important.

    Will Mnuchin suppport Trump’s goal of bringing middle class jobs back to America? Is Trump himself sincere? We do not know.

    What we do know is that Trump attacked the fake “free trade” agreements that have stripped America of middle class jobs just as did Pat Buchanan and Ross Perot. We know that the Clintons made their fortune as agents of the One Percent, the only ones who have profited from the offshoring of American jobs. Trump’s fortune is not based on jobs offshoring.

    Not every billionaire is an oligarch. Trump’s relation to the financial sector is one as a debtor. No doubt Trump and the banks have had unsatisfactory relationships. And Trump says he is a person who enjoys revenge.

    What about the hot-headed generals announced as National Security Advisor and Secretary of Defense? Both seem to be death on Iran, which is stupid and unfortunate. However, keep in mind that Gen. Flynn is the one who blew the whistle on the Obama regime for rejecting the advice of the DIA and sending ISIS to overthrow Assad. Flynn said that ISIS was a “willful decision” of the Obama administration, not some unexpected event.

    And keep in mind that Gen. Mattis is the one who told Trump that torture does not work, which caused Trump to back off his endorsement of torture.

    So both of these generals, as bad as they may be, are an improvement on what came before. Both have shown independence from the neoconservative line that supports ISIS and torture.

    Keep in mind also that there are two kinds of insiders. Some represent the agendas of special interests; others go with the flow because they enjoy participating in the affairs of the nation. Those who don’t go with the flow are eliminated from participating.

    Goldman Sachs is a good place to get rich. That Mnuchin left 14 years ago could mean that he was not a good match for Goldman Sachs, that they did not like him or he did not like them. That Flynn and Mattis have taken independent positions on ISIS and torture suggests that they are mavericks. All three of these appointees seem to be strong and confident individuals who know the terrain, which is the kind of people a president needs if he is to accomplish anything.

    The problem with beating up on an administration before it exists and has a record is that the result can be that the administration becomes deaf to all criticism. It is much better to give the new president a chance and to hold his feet to the fire on the main issues.

    Trump alone among all the presidential candidates said that he saw no point in fomenting conflict with Russia. Trump alone questioned NATO’s continued existence 25 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

    Trump alone said that he would work to bring middle class jobs back to America.

    And Trump said that he would enforce immigration laws. Is this racism or is this a defense of citizenship? How is the US a country if there is no difference between illegal aliens and citizens?

    Commentators of all stripes are making a mistake to damn in advance the only government that campaigned on peace with Russia, restoring middle class jobs, and respect for the country’s borders. We should seize on these promises and hold the Trump administration to them. We should also work to make Trump aware of the serious adverse consequences of environmental degradation.

    Who is blowing these opportunities? Trump? Mnuchin? Flynn? Mattis?

    Or us?

    The more Trump is criticized, the easier it is for the neoconservatives to offer their support and enter the administration. To date he has not appointed one, but you can bet your life that Israel is lobbying hard for the neocons. The neocons still reign in the media, the think tanks, university departments of foreign affairs, and the foreign policy community. They are an ever present danger.

    Trump’s personality means that he is likely to see more reward in being the president who reverses American decline than in using the presidency to augment his personal fortune. Therefore, there is some hope for change occuring from the top rather than originating in the streets of bloody revolution. By the time Americans reach the revolutionary stage of awareness the police state is likely to be too strong for them.

    So let’s give the Trump administration a chance. We can turn on him after he sells us out.

  • A Visual History Of Population In America

    You’ve likely seen the population density map of the United States in one form or another. A lot of people per square mile reside in big cities, fewer people reside in suburban areas, and a lot fewer people reside in rural areas.

    But as FlowingData.com’s Nathan Yau explains, cities weren’t always cities though. Rural wasn’t always rural. If you look at people per square mile over a couple of centuries, you get a better idea of how the country developed.

    The animated map above shows population density by decade, going back to 1790 and up to recent estimates for 2015. The time in between each time period represents a smoothed transition. This is approximate, but it gives a better idea of how the distribution of population changed.

    As you watch, keep in mind that the map is based on data that was available and that it only represents the United States population.

    This is especially notable during the first century. No data shows in much of the country, the estimates are spotty in many territories, and there were people who lived in the blanked out areas before newcomers settled.

  • Did The Market Just Flash A Hindenburg Omen Warning?

    Amid the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune in the stock, bond, and commodity markets this week, a few 'rotten' things began to emerge. With major indices diverging notably, new highs and new lows soaring, and breadth deteriorating, analysts noted the re-awakening of The Hindenburg Omen signal…

    As John Hussman previously wrote, when we think of market “internals,” the number of new highs and new lows can contribute useful information. To expand on the vocabulary we use to talk about internals, “leadership” typically refers to the number of stocks achieving new highs and new lows; “breadth” typically refers to the number of stocks advancing versus declining in a given day or week; and “participation” typically refers to the percentage of stocks that are advancing or declining in tandem with the major indices.

    The original basis for the Hindenburg signal traces back to the “high-low logic index” that Norm Fosback created in the 1970’s. Jim Miekka introduced the Hindenburg as a daily rather than weekly measure, Kennedy Gammage gave it the ominous name, and Peter Eliades later added several criteria to reduce the noise of one-off signals, requiring additional confirmation that amounts to a requirement that more than one signal must emerge in the context of an advancing market with weakening breadth.

    And this week saw renowned technician Tom McClellan declare a Hindenburg Omen had struck

     

    As we discussed over 6 years ago, the dreaded Hindenburg Omen is easily the most feared technical pattern in all of chartism (for the bullishly inclined). Those who know what it is, tend to have an atavistic reaction to its mere mention. Those who do not, can catch up on its implications courtesy of Wikipedia, but in a nutshell: "The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis that attempts to predict a forthcoming stock market crash. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster of May 6th 1937, during which the German zeppelin was destroyed in a sudden conflagration." Granted, the Hindenburg Omen is not a guarantee of a crash, and the five criteria that must be met for a Hindenburg trigger typically need to reoccur within 36 days for reconfirmation. Yet the statistics are startling: "Looking back at historical data, the probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was 77%, and usually takes place within the next forty-days."

    As a reminder, the 5 criteria of the Omen are as follows:

    1. That the daily number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of new 52 Week Lows must both be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day.
    2. That the smaller of these numbers is greater than or equal to 69 (68.772 is 2.2% of 3126). This is not a rule but more like a checksum. This condition is a function of the 2.2% of the total issues.
    3. That the NYSE 10 Week moving average is rising.
    4. That the McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day.
    5. That new 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week Lows (however it is fine for new 52 Week Lows to be more than double new 52 Week Highs). This condition is absolutely mandatory.

    The last Hindenburg Omen occurred as the markets began to roll over in June 2015 (and did not end well) although that had followed a series of false alerts in the 2013 QE-enthused melt-up.

     

    However, while McClellan called the Hindenburg, it appears it may have fallen just short…

    Checking the rules:

    1: YES – see chart above (red and green lines BOTH above the blue)

    2: YES – 74 > 69

    3: YES – 10628 to 10631 (rising)

    4: YES – McClellan Oscillator -5.85 (below 0)

    5: NO – 236 New Highs is more than double the 74 New Lows

    And so from the most strict definition, The Hindenburg Omen did not strike this week…

    But it's close and as a reminder, while no Hindenburg flashed, Dana Lyons noted both the number of New Highs and New Lows set 3-month highs just over a week ago. If that sounds odd, it is. In fact, it was only the 2nd day ever in which each set a 3-month high. And since 1970, only 18 prior days saw New Highs and New Lows set as much as a 1-month high.

    image

     

    Something which has not boded well in the past…

    image

    As the table shows, the return in the S&P 500 has been negative 2 months after all 11 occurrences. And it wasn’t just the 2-month period that was poor. Median returns are negative across nearly all time frames from 1 week to 2 years. The 2-year result is perhaps the most eye-opening after the 2-month. The market is not typically down over a 2-year period so to see 7 of the 8 instances lower is a rare result.

    What causes the elevated numbers of New Highs and New Lows? And why would it necessarily be a negative for the stock market? We’re not sure, and we don’t really care. We’re never too concerned with the “why’s” when it comes to the markets. All we care about is what is happening. And for whatever reason, the market has been especially weak – and consistently so – following the occurrence of lots of New Highs and Lows. That is a legitimate red flag currently, in our view.

  • Obama TV: Is Obama Planning A "Fake News" Outlet Of His Own?

    After spending the past month blaming Hillary’s loss on the rampant spread of “fake news,” because choosing a failed candidate subject to numerous active federal criminal investigations and/or Obama’s failed policies couldn’t possibly be to blame, Mic is reporting that Obama is contemplating starting a propaganda machine media company of his own after leaving the White House.  

    President Barack Obama has been discussing a post-presidential career in digital media and is considering launching his own media company, according to multiple sources who spoke on background because they were not authorized to speak for the president.

     

    Obama considers media to be a central focus of his next chapter, these sources say, though exactly what form that will take — a show streaming on Netflix, a web series on a comedy site or something else — remains unclear. Obama has gone so far as to discuss launching his own media company, according to one source with knowledge of the matter, although he has reportedly cooled on the idea of late.

     

    According to another source, Obama met privately with Facebook CEO and co-founder Mark Zuckerberg in Lima, Peru, on the sidelines of the recent APEC summit to discuss the matter.

     

    While Obama has been on a crusade against “fake news” of late, we’re not exactly sure how adding yet another MSNBC substitute to the media arm of the democratic party will change anything in a meaningful way.  While Obama continues to “rethink his storytelling,” he and other democrats simply continue to prove that they’ve learned absolutely nothing from the 2016 election.  The entire election was a rejection of “storytelling” in favor of action, it was a rejection of establishment politicians, like Obama, who have proven time and again that, while they’re great at delivering emotional speeches on “Hope and Change,” they are completely void of any substance beyond their rhetoric. 

    When Rolling Stone asked the president about his future plans, Obama said he would begin “organizing my presidential center,” where a top subject would be, “How do we rethink our storytelling, the messaging and the use of technology and digital media, so that we can make a persuasive case across the country?”

     

    In recent days — even before Trump’s surprising victory — Obama also mused openly about what he views as the dangerous state of media and his desire to play a role in fixing it. According to the New Yorker, Obama apparently obsessed over a BuzzFeed story that documented how more than 100 pro-Trump websites peddling fake news reports had originated in one small Macedonian town. The president worried aloud that the way stories are displayed on various platforms “means everything is true and nothing is true” and that “an explanation of climate change from a Nobel Prize-winning physicist looks exactly the same on your Facebook page as the denial of climate change by somebody on the Koch brothers’ payroll.”

     

    Obama has been outspoken in recent days about the faux news phenomenon, arguing that the rise of conspiracy theories and the easy propagation of fake stories has made it difficult to establish basic facts to frame a debate. “And now we just don’t have that,” he told New Yorker editor David Remnick.

    Of course, if true an Obama media company would threaten a long-standing tradition of former Presidents withholding criticism of their successors. 

    Depending on what form it takes, a hard dive into media could also put Obama at odds with presidential precedent. For decades, former presidents have followed a tradition of remaining quiet about their successors in public. During his recent visit to Peru, Obama said he would uphold that convention after leaving office, but also hinted he might speak out when he feels necessary. “If there are issues that have less to do with the specifics of some legislative proposal or battle or go to core questions about our values and ideals, and if I think that it’s necessary or helpful for me to defend those ideals, I’ll examine it when it comes,” Obama told reporters.

    Remember when Obama scolded Republicans with his “Elections have consequences. Tough luck, you lost. Get over it” line.  We guess that only applies when his team wins.

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Today’s News 3rd December 2016

  • Official Washington's "Info-Wars"

    Authored by William Blum, originally posted at Strategic-Culture.org,

    On November 16, at a State Department press briefing, department spokesperson John Kirby was having one of his frequent adversarial dialogues with Gayane Chichakyan, a reporter for RT (Russia Today); this time concerning U.S. charges of Russia bombing hospitals in Syria and blocking the U.N. from delivering aid to the trapped population.

    When Chichakyan asked for some detail about these charges, Kirby replied: “Why don’t you ask your defense ministry?”

    GC: Do you – can you give any specific information on when Russia or the Syrian Government blocked the UN from delivering aid? Just any specific information.

     

    KIRBY: There hasn’t been any aid delivered in the last month.

     

    GC: And you believe it was blocked exclusively by Russia and the Syrian Government?

     

    KIRBY: There’s no question in our mind that the obstruction is coming from the regime and from Russia. No question at all.…

     

    MATTHEW LEE (Associated Press): Let me –- hold on, just let me say: Please be careful about saying “your defense minister” and things like that. I mean, she’s a journalist just like the rest of us are, so it’s -– she’s asking pointed questions, but they’re not –

     

    KIRBY: From a state-owned -– from a state-owned –

     

    LEE: But they’re not –

     

    KIRBY: From a state-owned outlet, Matt.

     

    LEE: But they’re not –

     

    KIRBY: From a state-owned outlet that’s not independent.

     

    LEE: The questions that she’s asking are not out of line.

     

    KIRBY: I didn’t say the questions were out of line…

     

    KIRBY: I’m sorry, but I’m not going to put Russia Today on the same level with the rest of you who are representing independent media outlets.

    One has to wonder if State Department spokesperson Kirby knows that in 2011 Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, speaking about RT, declared: “The Russians have opened an English-language network. I’ve seen it in a few countries, and it is quite instructive.”

    I also wonder how Mr. Kirby deals with reporters from the BBC, a STATE-OWNED television and radio entity in the U.K., broadcasting in the U.S. and all around the world.

    Or the state-owned Australian Broadcasting Corporation, described by Wikipedia as follows: “The corporation provides television, radio, online and mobile services throughout metropolitan and regional Australia, as well as overseas… and is well regarded for quality and reliability as well as for offering educational and cultural programming that the commercial sector would be unlikely to supply on its own.”

    There’s also Radio Free Europe, Radio Free Asia, Radio Liberty (Central/Eastern Europe), and Radio Marti (Cuba); all (U.S.) state-owned, none “independent”, but all deemed worthy enough by the United States to feed to the world.

    And let’s not forget what Americans have at home: PBS (Public Broadcasting Service) and NPR (National Public Radio), which would have a near-impossible time surviving without large federal government grants. How independent does this leave them? Has either broadcaster ever unequivocally opposed a modern American war? There’s good reason NPR has long been known as National Pentagon Radio. But it’s part of American media’s ideology to pretend that it doesn’t have any ideology.

    As to the non-state American media … There are about 1,400 daily newspapers in the United States. Can you name a single paper, or a single TV network, that was unequivocally opposed to the American wars carried out against Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Yugoslavia, Panama, Grenada, and Vietnam while they were happening, or shortly thereafter? Or even opposed to any two of these seven wars? How about one?

    In 1968, six years into the Vietnam War, the Boston Globe (Feb. 18, 1968) surveyed the editorial positions of 39 leading U.S. papers concerning the war and found that “none advocated a pull-out.” Has the phrase “invasion of Vietnam” ever appeared in the U.S. mainstream media?

    In 2003, leading cable station MSNBC took the much-admired Phil Donahue off the air because of his opposition to the calls for war in Iraq. Mr. Kirby would undoubtedly call MSNBC “independent.”

    If the American mainstream media were officially state-controlled, would they look or sound significantly different when it comes to U.S. foreign policy?

    New Cold War Propaganda

    On Nov. 25, the Washington Post ran an article entitled: “Research ties ‘fake news’ to Russia.” It’s all about how sources in Russia are flooding American media and the Internet with phony stories designed as “part of a broadly effective strategy of sowing distrust in U.S. democracy and its leaders.”

    The Washington Post building in downtown Washington, D.C. (Photo credit: Washington Post)

    The Washington Post building in downtown Washington, D.C. (Photo credit: Washington Post)

    “The sophistication of the Russian tactics,” the article says, “may complicate efforts by Facebook and Google to crack down on ‘fake news’.”

    The Post states that the Russian tactics included “penetrating the computers of election officials in several states and releasing troves of hacked emails that embarrassed Clinton in the final months of her campaign.” (Heretofore this had been credited to Wikileaks.)

    The story is simply bursting with anti-Russian references:

    • –An online magazine header – “Trolling for Trump: How Russia Is Trying to Destroy Our Democracy.”
    • –“the startling reach and effectiveness of Russian propaganda campaigns.”
    • –“more than 200 websites as routine peddlers of Russian propaganda during the election season.”
    • –“stories planted or promoted by the disinformation campaign were viewed more than 213 million times.”
    • –“The Russian campaign during this election season … worked by harnessing the online world’s fascination with ‘buzzy’ content that is surprising and emotionally potent, and tracks with popular conspiracy theories about how secret forces dictate world events.”
    • –“Russian-backed phony news to outcompete traditional news organizations for audience”
    • –“They use our technologies and values against us to sow doubt. It’s starting to undermine our democratic system.”
    • –“Russian propaganda operations also worked to promote the ‘Brexit’ departure of Britain from the European Union.”
    • –“Some of these stories originated with RT and Sputnik, state-funded Russian information services that mimic the style and tone of independent news organizations yet sometimes include false and misleading stories in their reports.”
    • –“a variety of other false stories — fake reports of a coup launched at Incirlik Air Base in Turkey and stories about how the United States was going to conduct a military attack and blame it on Russia”

    A former U.S. ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul, is quoted saying he was “struck by the overt support that Sputnik expressed for Trump during the campaign, even using the #CrookedHillary hashtag pushed by the candidate.” McFaul said Russian propaganda typically is aimed at weakening opponents and critics.

    “They don’t try to win the argument. It’s to make everything seem relative. It’s kind of an appeal to cynicism.” [Cynicism? Heavens! What will those Moscow fascists/communists think of next?]

    The Post did, however, include the following: “RT disputed the findings of the researchers in an e-mail on Friday, saying it played no role in producing or amplifying any fake news stories related to the U.S. election.” RT was quoted: “It is the height of irony that an article about ‘fake news’ is built on false, unsubstantiated claims. RT adamantly rejects any and all claims and insinuations that the network has originated even a single ‘fake story’ related to the US election.”

    It must be noted that the Washington Post article fails to provide a single example showing how the actual facts of a specific news event were rewritten or distorted by a Russian agency to produce a news event with a contrary political message.

    What then lies behind such blatant anti-Russian propaganda? In the new Cold War such a question requires no answer. The new Cold War by definition exists to discredit Russia simply because it stands in the way of American world domination. In the new Cold War, the political spectrum in the mainstream media runs the gamut from A to B.

  • Chinese Developers Rethink U.S. Real Estate Projects: "I See Danger…U.S. Real Estate Is Peaking"

    For months we’ve been warning that real estate markets in NYC and San Francisco, among others, are getting ready to rollover as the market is about to be flooded with new supply of luxury apartments (see here and here).  Real estate in both markets are just starting to show signs of cracking as the apartments sales cycle is getting stretched out and pricing growth has stalled. 

    Now, per an article from the Wall Street Journal, wealthy Chinese real estate investors are admitting that the jig is up in large cities like New York and are running for the hills.  With a substantial amount of capacity expected to come online over the next several quarters and a growth cycle that is entering its 8th year, one Chinese real estate investor admits “you get a sense now that it’s peaking.”

    Swelling supply of high-end New York condominiums could result in losses for some Chinese developers, analysts said. A push to partner with U.S. developers on other projects, meanwhile, has brought unexpected legal spats and other delays.

     

    “I see a danger in the real-estate market in the U.S.,” said John Liang, Xinyuan Real Estate’s managing director of U.S. operations. “With its seven- to eight-year cycle, you get a sense now that it’s peaking.” He added that he sees value in middle-tier residential properties in Manhattan and Queens.

     

    “Right now the prices are really high,” said Zhang Xin, chief executive of Soho China, whose family invested in a stake in Manhattan’s General Motors Building in 2013. “I would be very cautious if I were to make a large investment in New York’s real estate today.”

    NYC

     

    Of course, Manhattan isn’t the only Burrough experiencing a supply glut.  Forest City Realty was just forced to take a $300mm impairment charge on a joint venture with a Shanghai-based development company after “unprecedented rental supply in downtown Brooklyn” forced the copanies to delay development.

    CL Investment, which has three other high-end residential projects in Manhattan, plans to keep the office space as part of efforts to diversify, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

     

    In Brooklyn, N.Y., a deal between Shanghai-based, state-owned conglomerate Greenland Holding Group and Forest City Realty Trust on a 22-acre, 15-building mixed-use project in various stages of construction is facing stiff headwinds.

     

    Forest City earlier this month said it took a $307.6 million impairment charge for the project, called Pacific Park Brooklyn, and said it plans “to delay future vertical development.”

     

    “We revised the schedule due to a number of factors, including almost unprecedented concentrations of new rental supply in downtown Brooklyn, which will take time for the market to absorb,” said Forest City CEO David LaRue.

    Just to add insult to injury, the softening real estate market is coming just as China is once again looking to tighten rules on capital investments outside of China. 

    The headwinds come at a time when Beijing once again is planning to tighten its rules on Chinese investment capital leaving the country.

     

    The Chinese State Council is expected to soon announce new reviews of foreign acquisitions of $10 billion or more and property investments by state-owned firms of more than $1 billion, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter and documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

     

    Total Chinese direct investment in U.S. real-estate and hospitality assets is nearly $12.6 billion, accounting for nearly a fifth of total Chinese investment in the U.S. since 1990, according to a recent report from the Rhodium Group and the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations. Most of the activity has taken place since 2010 and is concentrated in areas such as New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco.

    Of course, no matter what kind of capital controls are put in place, just like the Vancouver and Sydney real estate markets, we suspect that when Chinese money needs to be laundered, people will find a way.  The only question is now that yet another bubble has run its course, where subsequent bubbles will emerge.

    * * *

    For those who missed it, below is what we recently wrote after 3Q16 apartment closings plunged 18.6% in NYC.

    New York City apartment owners should take note of the latest 3Q16 “Elliman Report” on Manhattan real estate sales because the market looks to be in free fall.  In fact, the number of apartment closings plunged 18.6% YoY while apartments sat on the market an average of 8.2% longer.  Inventory also spiked with re-sale inventory up 8.2% YoY and new development inventory up a massive 27.2%.   

    The number of re-sales has fallen year over year in each of the last four quarters at an increasing rate.  Listing inventory reflected significant differences in the rate of growth between re-sale and new development.  Re-sale inventory expanded 8.2% to 5,290 while new development inventory surged 27.2% to 973 respectively from the same period a year ago.

    Median sales prices did increase YoY by 7.6% but collapsed QoQ despite a massive surge in pricing on the luxury end of the market.

    NYC Real Estate

     

    The re-sale market looks even more bleak, on a standalone basis, as the overall numbers above are skewed by sales of super-luxury new development units.  The number of re-sale closings collapsed over 20% YoY while days on the market increased 7.5%

    NYC Real Estate

     

    All segments of the market exhibited volume weakness with co-op sales down 17.1% YoY on a 14.1% increase in listing days and a modest 1.4% increase in median sales price.

    NYC Real Estate

     

    Condo sales declined 20.1% YoY on a 2.4% increase in listing days and a 6.7% increase in median sales price.  Meanwhile, condo inventory rose over 15%.

    NYC Real Estate

     

    And, of course, the luxury market seemed to hold up the best in 3Q with volumes still weak at -18.6% but median pricing up 23.9% and listing inventory down YoY.

    NYC Real Estate

     

    In conclusion, the lesson seems to be that the marginal New York City buyer has been priced out of the market (volume down 20%) while sellers have not yet accepted that the bubble has burst deciding instead to maintain listing prices while letting their apartments sit on the market longer amid growing inventory levels.  Meanwhile, the luxury market is the only segment that seems to be holding up which only serves to prove that Chinese billionaires still have cash they would like to hide in the U.S.

  • Obama Supports Forcing Women To Register For Military Draft

    Submitted by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,

    Continuing the debate over a massive expansion of the Selective Service, the White House today announced that President Obama is in favor of expanding registration for the military draft to include all women when they turn 18.

    "As old barriers for military service are being removed, the administration supports — as a logical next step — women registering for the Selective Service," said Ned Price, a spokesman for Obama's National Security Council.

     

    The White House had previously expressed neutrality on the controversy, but took a position in a statement to USA TODAY on Thursday.

     

    Under current law, women can volunteer to serve in the military but aren't required to register for the draft. All adult men must register within 30 days of their 18th birthday.

    The announcement comes ahead of a planned House vote on a bill to study the expansion of the military draft, or to potentially eliminate the Selective Service outright. The White House has repeatedly insisted they have no plans to bring the draft back, but want to force everyone to register anyhow to “foster a sense of public service.”

    The measure had roiled social conservatives, who decried it as another step toward the blurring of gender lines akin to allowing transgender people to use public lavatories and locker rooms. Rep. Pete Sessions, R-Texas, spoke for a number of Republicans when he described the provision as "coercing America's daughters" into draft registration.

     

    But proponents of including women in the draft pool viewed the requirement as a sensible step toward gender equality. They pointed to the Pentagon's decision last year to open all front-line combat jobs to women as removing any justification for gender restrictions on registration.

    The administration opened all combat roles to women, and officials say they believe expanding the registration system is a “logical next step,” ensuring “gender equality” in forcing the public to register for potential conscription in future wars.

    Though there is some call from some in Congress to do away with the Selective Service system entirely as an unused relic of the past, there appears to be considerable support for keeping it in place despite its practical uselessness, simply on the grounds that it doesn’t cost that much.

    The Selective Service system was eliminated by President Ford in 1975, two years after the last conscription lottery. President Carter brought the system back in 1980 as part of a show of hostility toward the Soviet Union over the invasion of Afghanistan. The system has remained in place ever since, even though the Soviet occupation ended, the Soviet Union fell, and the US has been occupying Afghanistan themselves for the last 15 years.

  • CNN Caught in Locker Room Talk; Crew Jokes About Trump's Plane Crashing

    Nothing to see here. The girls at CNN were merely fraternizing, joking it up about the President elect’s airplane crashing. If you listen closely, one of the catamites caught giggling said he’d only be injured, not killed, so there’s that. 

    Hot mics are a bitch and so is the person who made these comments.

    Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

  • Stanford Study Reveals California Pensions Underfunded By $1 Trillion Or $93k Per Household

    Earlier today the Kersten Institute for Governance and Public Policy highlighted an updated pension study, released by the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, which revealed some fairly startling realities about California’s public pension underfunding levels.  After averaging $77,700 per household in 2014, the amount of public pension underfunding for the state of California jumped to a staggering $92,748 per household in 2015.  But don’t worry, we’re sure pension managers can grow their way out of the problem…hedge fund returns have been stellar recently, right?

    Stanford University’s pension tracker database pegs the market value of California’s total pension debt at $1 trillion or $93,000 per California household in 2015. 

     

    In 2014, California’s total pension debt was calculated at $77,700 per household, but has increased dramatically in response to abysmal investment returns at California’s public pension funds that hover at or below zero percent annual returns.

     

    The Pension Tracker database (www.pensiontracker.org) is maintained by the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) and is intended to help localize pension data by providing the ability to look up the market value of pension debt in any locality in California.

    Looking back to 2008, the underfunding levels of California’s public pension have skyrocketed 157% on abysmal asset returns and growing liabilities resulting from lower discount rates. 

    Perhaps this helps shed some light on why CalPERS is having such a difficult time with what should have been an easy decision to lower their long-term return expectations to 6% from 7.5% (see “CalPERS Weighs Pros/Cons Of Setting Reasonable Return Targets Vs. Maintaining Ponzi Scheme“)…$93k per household just seems so much more “manageable” than $150k.

    Pension

     

    Oddly enough, California isn’t even the worst off when it comes to pension debt as Alaska leads the pack with just over $110,000 per household.

    Pension

     

    Of course, at this point the question isn’t “if” these ponzi schemes will blow up but rather which one will go first?  We have our money on Dallas Police and Fire

  • Clinton & Trump Aides Forum Devolves Into Screaming Match – "I Would Rather Lose Than Win The Way You Did"

    How was this ever going to end well? An election post-mortem forum erupted into a shouting match as top strategists of Hillary Clinton’s campaign accused their Republican counterparts of fueling and legitimizing racism to elect Donald Trump. Clinton communications director Jennifer Palmieri exclaimed "I would rather lose than win the way you guys did," to which Kellyanne Conway, Trump’s campaign manager, fumed "I can tell you are angry, but wow… Will you ever accept the election results?" And it went down-hill from there…

    As NBC News reports, a Harvard panel that traditionally writes the first draft of presidential campaign history devolved into a shouting match between Trump and Clinton aides on Thursday in a raw, emotional display echoing the divisive campaign.

     Jennifer Palmieri, who was Hillary Clinton's communications director, zeroed in on Steve Bannon, the incoming chief strategist for President-elect Donald Trump who once ran the web site Breitbart.

     

    "If providing a platform for white supremacists makes me a brilliant tactician, I am proud to have lost," said Palmieri, one of six Clinton aides who sat across tables from top Trump campaign staff at a forum moderated by three journalists, NBC News' Andrea Mitchell among them. "I would rather lose than win the way you guys did."

     

    Kellyanne Conway, who managed Trump's campaign, was visibly angry and indignantly interrupted. "Do you think I ran a campaign where white supremacists had a platform?"

     

    "You did, Kellyanne. You did," Palmieri said, as other Clinton aides chimed in in the affirmative. With only two microphones allowed to be open at any given time, the shouting match was so heated it became difficult to follow.

     

    "Do you think you could have just had a decent message for white, working-class voters? How about, it's Hillary Clinton, she doesn't connect with people? How about, they have nothing in common with her? How about, she doesn't have an economic message?" Conway said.

     

    "There were dog whistles," said Clinton strategist Joel Benenson at one point.

     

    Said Conway: "Guys, I can tell you are angry, but wow. Hashtag he's your president…will you ever accept the election results? Will you tell your protesters that he's their president, too?"

    Exposing a somewhat stunning level of cognitive dissonance, seemingly blaming the media, The Washington Post reports that Clinton’s campaign aides insisted, again and again, that their candidate had been held to a different standard than the other contenders — as evidenced by the controversy over her use of a private email server while secretary of state.

    Palmieri said that many political journalists had a personal dislike for the Democratic nominee and predicted that the email issue will go down in history as “the most grossly overrated, over-covered and most destructive story in all of presidential politics.”

     

    “If I made one mistake, it was legitimizing the way the press covered this story line,” Palmieri said.

     

    Mook added that Trump deftly used his rally speeches to “switch up the news cycle.”

     

    “The media by and large was not covering what Hillary Clinton was choosing to say,” Mook said. “They were treating her like the likely winner, and they were constantly trying to unearth secrets and expose.”

     

    For instance, Mook posited that the media did not scrutinize Trump’s refusal to release his tax returns as intensively as the issue of Clinton’s private email server.

     

    Conway retorted: “Oh, my God, that question was vomited to me every day on TV.”

    Joel Benenson, Clinton’s chief strategist, meanwhile, served notice that the election may be over but that the battles it spawned are not.

    “You guys won, that’s clear,” Benenson said. “But let’s be honest. Don’t act as if you have a popular mandate for your message. The fact of the matter is that more Americans voted for Hillary Clinton than for Donald Trump.”

     

    At which point Conway turned to her side and said: “Hey, guys, we won. You don’t have to respond. He was the better candidate. That’s why he won.”

  • The Propaganda About Russian Propaganda

    Authored by Adrian Chen, originally posted at The New Yorker,

    In late October, I received an e-mail from “The PropOrNot Team,” which described itself as a “newly-formed independent team of computer scientists, statisticians, national security professionals, journalists and political activists, dedicated to identifying propaganda—particularly Russian propaganda targeting a U.S. audience.” PropOrNot said that it had identified two hundred Web sites that “qualify as Russian propaganda outlets.” The sites’ reach was wide—they are read by at least fifteen million Americans. PropOrNot said that it had “drafted a preliminary report about this for the office of Senator Ron Wyden (D-OR), and after reviewing our report they urged us to get in touch with you and see about making it a story.”

    Reporting on Internet phenomena, one learns to be wary of anonymous collectives freely offering the fruits of their research. I told PropOrNot that I was probably too busy to write a story, but I asked to see the report. In reply, PropOrNot asked me to put the group in touch with “folks at the NYTimes, WaPo, WSJ, and anyone else who you think would be interested.” Deep in the middle of another project, I never followed up.

    PropOrNot managed to connect with the Washington Post on its own. Last week, the Post published a story based in part on PropOrNot’s research. Headlined “Russian Propaganda Effort Helped Spread ‘Fake News’ During Election, Experts Say,” the report claimed that a number of researchers had uncovered a “sophisticated Russian propaganda campaign” that spread fake-news articles across the Internet with the aim of hurting Hillary Clinton and helping Donald Trump. It prominently cited the PropOrNot research. The story topped the Post’s most-read list, and was shared widely by prominent journalists and politicians on Twitter. The former White House adviser Dan Pfeiffer tweeted, “Why isn’t this the biggest story in the world right now?”

    Vladimir Putin and the Russian state’s affinity for Trump has been well-reported. During the campaign, countless stories speculated on connections between Trump and Putin and alleged that Russia contributed to Trump’s election using propaganda and subterfuge. Clinton made it a major line of attack. But the Post’s story had the force of revelation, thanks in large part to the apparent scientific authority of PropOrNot’s work: the group released a thirty-two-page report detailing its methodology, and named names with its list of two hundred suspect news outlets. The organization’s anonymity, which a spokesperson maintained was due to fear of Russian hackers, added a cybersexy mystique.

    But a close look at the report showed that it was a mess. “To be honest, it looks like a pretty amateur attempt,” Eliot Higgins, a well-respected researcher who has investigated Russian fake-news stories on his Web site, Bellingcat, for years, told me. “I think it should have never been an article on any news site of any note.”

    The most striking issue is the overly broad criteria used to identify which outlets spread propaganda. According to PropOrNot’s recounting of its methodology, the third step it uses is to check if a site has a history of “generally echoing the Russian propaganda ‘line’,” which includes praise for Putin, Trump, Bashar al-Assad, Syria, Iran, China, and “radical political parties in the US and Europe.” When not praising, Russian propaganda includes criticism of the United States, Barack Obama, Clinton, the European Union, Angela Merkel, NATO, Ukraine, “Jewish people,” U.S. allies, the mainstream media, Democrats, and “the center-right or center-left, and moderates of all stripes.”

    These criteria, of course, could include not only Russian state-controlled media organizations, such as Russia Today, but nearly every news outlet in the world, including the Post itself. Yet PropOrNot claims to be uninterested in differentiating between organizations that are explicit tools of the Russian state and so-called “useful idiots,” which echo Russian propaganda out of sincerely held beliefs. “We focus on behavior, not motivation,” they write.

    To PropOrNot, simply exhibiting a pattern of beliefs outside the political mainstream is enough to risk being labelled a Russian propagandist. Indeed, the list of “propaganda outlets” has included respected left-leaning publications like CounterPunch and Truthdig, as well as the right-wing behemoth Drudge Report. The list is so broad that it can reveal absolutely nothing about the structure or pervasiveness of Russian propaganda. “It’s so incredibly scattershot,” Higgins told me. “If you’ve ever posted a pro-Russian post on your site, ever, you’re Russian propaganda.” In a scathing takedown on The Intercept, Glenn Greenwald and Ben Norton wrote that PropOrNot “embodies the toxic essence of Joseph McCarthy, but without the courage to attach individual names to the blacklist.”

    By overplaying the influence of Russia’s disinformation campaign, the report also plays directly into the hands of the Russian propagandists that it hopes to combat. “Think about RT and Sputnik’s goals, how they report their success to Putin,” Vasily Gatov, a Russian media analyst and a visiting fellow at the University of Southern California’s Annenberg School for Communication and Journalism, told me. “Their success is that they have penetrated their agenda, that they have become an issue for the West. And this is exactly what happened.” (Kristine Coratti Kelly, a spokeswoman for the Post, said, “The Post reported on the work of four separate sets of researchers. PropOrNot was one. The Post reviewed its findings, and our questions about them were answered satisfactorily during the course of multiple interviews.”)

    In a phone interview, a spokesman for PropOrNot brushed off the criticism. “If there’s a pattern of activity over time, especially combined with underlying technical tells, then, yeah, we’re going to highlight it,” he said. He argued that Russian disinformation is an enormous problem that requires direct confrontation. “It’s been clear for a while that Russia is a little braver, more aggressive, more willing to push the boundaries of what was previously acceptable.” He said that, to avoid painting outlets with too broad a brush, the group employs a sophisticated analysis that relies on no single criterion in isolation.

    Yet, when pressed on the technical patterns that led PropOrNot to label the Drudge Report a Russian propaganda outlet, he could point only to a general perception of bias in its content. “They act as a repeater to a significant extent, in that they refer audiences to sort of Russian stuff,” he said. “There’s no a-priori reason, stepping back, that a conservative news site would rely on so many Russian news sources. What is up with that?” I asked to see the raw data PropOrNot used to determine that the Drudge Report was a Russian-propaganda outlet. The spokesman said that the group would release it to the public eventually, but could not share it at the moment: “That takes a lot of work, and we’re an all-volunteer crew.” Instead, he urged me to read the Drudge Report myself, suggesting that its nature would be apparent.

    On its Twitter account, PropOrNot, in support of its research, cites an article I wrote for the Times Magazine, in 2015, about an online propaganda operation in Russia. But my investigation was focussed on a concrete organization that directly distributed disinformation. I was able to follow links from Twitter accounts and Web sites to a building in St. Petersburg where hundreds of young Russians worked to churn out propaganda. Despite the impressive-looking diagrams and figures in its report, PropOrNot’s findings rest largely on innuendo and conspiracy thinking.

    Another major issue with PropOrNot is that its members insist on anonymity. If one aims to cut through a disinformation campaign, transparency is paramount. Otherwise you just stoke further paranoia.The Russian journalist Alexey Kovalev, who debunks Kremlin propaganda on his site, Noodleremover, floated the possibility that PropOrNot was Ukrainians waging a disinformation campaign against Russia. The PropOrNot spokesman would speak to me only on the condition of anonymity and revealed only bare biographical details on background. “Are you familiar with the assassination of Jo Cox?” he asked, when I asked why his group remained in the shadows, referring to the British M.P. murdered by a right-wing extremist. “Well, that is a big thing for us. Basically, Russia uses crazy people to kill its enemies.”

    I can report that the spokesman was an American man, probably in his thirties or forties, who was well versed in Internet culture and swore enthusiastically. He said that the group numbered about forty people. “I can say we have people who work for major tech companies and people who have worked for the government in different regards, but we’re all acting in a private capacity,” he said. “One thing we’re all in agreement about is that Russia should not be able to fuck with the American people. That is not cool.” The spokesman said that the group began with fewer than a dozen members, who came together while following Russia’s invasion of eastern Ukraine. The crisis was accompanied by a flood of disinformation designed to confuse Ukraine and its allies. “That was a big wake-up call to us. It’s like, wait a minute, Russia is creating this very effective fake-news propaganda in conjunction with their military operation on the ground,” the spokesman said. “My God, if they can do that there, why can’t they do it here?” PropOrNot has said that the group includes Ukrainian-Americans, though the spokesman laughed at the suggestion that they were Ukrainian agents. PropOrNot has claimed total financial and editorial independence.

    Given PropOrNot’s shadowy nature and the shoddiness of its work, I was puzzled by the group’s claim to have worked with Senator Ron Wyden’s office. In an e-mail, Keith Chu, a spokesman for Wyden, told me that the PropOrNot team reached out to the office in late October. Two of the group’s members, an ex-State Department employee and an I.T. researcher, described their research. “It sounded interesting, and tracked with reporting on Russian propaganda efforts,” Chu wrote. After a few phone calls with the members, it became clear that Wyden’s office could not validate the group’s findings. Chu advised the group on press strategy and suggested some reporters that it might reach out to. “I told them that if they had findings, some kind of document that they could share with reporters, that would be helpful,” he told me. Chu said that Wyden’s office played no role in creating the report and didn’t endorse the findings. Nonetheless, he added, “There has been bipartisan interest in these kind of Russian efforts, including interference in elections, for some time now, including from Senator Wyden.” This week, Wyden and six other senators sent a letter to the White House asking it to declassify information “concerning the Russian Government and the U.S. election.”

    The story of PropOrNot should serve as a cautionary tale to those who fixate on malignant digital influences as a primary explanation for Trump’s stunning election. The story combines two of the most popular technological villains of post-election analysis – fake news and Russian subterfuge – into a single tantalizing package. Like the most effective Russian propaganda, the report weaved together truth and misinformation.

    Bogus news stories, which overwhelmingly favored Trump, did flood social media throughout the campaign, and the hack of the Clinton campaign chair John Podesta’s e-mail seems likely to have been the work of Russian intelligence services. But, as harmful as these phenomena might be, the prospect of legitimate dissenting voices being labelled fake news or Russian propaganda by mysterious groups of ex-government employees, with the help of a national newspaper, is even scarier. Vasily Gatov told me, “To blame internal social effects on external perpetrators is very Putinistic.”

  • Hillary Supporters Get Welcome News As Study Confirms White Population Dying Off Fast In Key Swing States

    Disaffected Hillary snowflakes at colleges and universities all around the country, many of whom surely cried themselves to sleep last night, woke up this morning to some of the best news they’ve received in weeks.  According to a new study by the University of New Hampshire Carsey School of Public Policy, white people are dying off faster than ever in the U.S.  Moreover, the biggest declines are coming in key swing states like FL and PA.  Even better, the study expects the “natural decrease” of whites to accelerate in the future.

    In 2014, deaths among non-Hispanic whites exceeded births in more states than at any time in U.S. history. Seventeen states, home to 121 million residents or roughly 38 percent of the U.S. population, had more deaths than births among non-Hispanic whites (hereafter referred to as whites) in 2014, compared to just four in 2004. When births fail to keep pace with deaths, a region is said to have a “natural decrease” in population, which can only be offset by migration gains. In twelve of the seventeen states with white natural decreases, the white population diminished overall between 2013 and 2014.

     

    This research is the first to examine the growing incidence of white natural decrease among U.S. states and to consider its policy implications. Our analysis of the demographic factors that cause white natural decrease suggests that the pace is likely to pick up in the future.

    Here are some of the the “Key Findings” from the study:

    NH

     

    At the national level, the White birth-to-death ratio has been shrinking aggressively since the “great recession” started in 2008.  By the time 2014 rolled around the rate had declined to near parity.  Researchers attribute the trends to “declining fertility due to the Great Recession” and an aging baby boomer population.

    Over the last several decades, demographers have noted the growing incidence of natural decrease in the United States. More widespread natural decrease results from declining fertility due to the Great Recession, and the aging of the large baby boom cohorts born between 1946 and 1964. This senior population is projected to expand from nearly 15 percent of the total population in 2015 to nearly 24 percent in 2060.  Much of this aging baby boom population is white, and so white mortality is growing. Together, growing white mortality and the diminishing number of white births increase the likelihood of more white natural decrease.

    NH

     

    Meanwhile, white populations in the key swing states of FL and PA have been shrinking for years while NV and AZ also joined the club in 2010 and 2012, respectively.

    NH

     

    And while white populations are declining the Southwest and Northeast, the Midwest populations are still growing…but no real problem there as those are Republican strongholds anyway.

    White natural decrease states are widely dispersed, with clusters in the South, West, and Northeast regions. States with minimal white natural increase are also widely distributed, though they are often in close proximity to the natural-decrease states. States with high natural increase are concentrated in the Mountain West and the West North Central regions but also include Texas, Louisiana, Indiana, and Virginia.

    NH

     

    So it’s not all bad news for democrats…if Hillary can hold out for a couple more election cycles, and suppress her “pneumonia” flare ups, she may just be unbeatable.

  • In Defense Of Trump's Deal With Carrier

    Submitted by Tho Bishop via The Mises Institute,

    Donald Trump hasn’t yet made the move from Trump Tower to America’s most expensive public housing, but he was able to come through with one campaign promise this week by announcing a deal with Indiana-based Carrier Air Conditioning that will keep almost 1,000 jobs in the state. As reported, the deal seems largely focused on the State of Indiana offering millions in tax breaks and an understanding that the Trump administration will push for regulatory and corporate tax relief at the Federal level.

    While the jobs Carrier will be keeping in the US only makes up about a third of the jobs the company had planned to move to Mexico, the underlying deal seems to reflect a larger commitment to addressing the corporate tax and regulatory burdens that have long held back the American economy. While some have described Trump's approach as crony capitalism, if the terms of the deal really are limited to tax relief, such claims are baseless. While it is true that tax breaks for specific companies are less ideal than across-the-board cuts (or outright abolishment) of business taxes, they should not be confused with taxpayer subsidies.

    As Matthew McCaffrey wrote last year defending tax credits for video game companies:

    Decades ago, economists like Mises and Rothbard were already arguing that tax breaks are not economically or ethically equivalent to receiving subsidies. Simply put, being permitted to keep your income is not the same as taking it from competitors. Exemptions and loopholes do not forcibly redistribute wealth; taxes and subsidies do, thereby benefiting some producers at the expense of others.

     

    Yes, entrepreneurs who take advantage of tax breaks will incur fewer costs than entrepreneurs who don’t. But this doesn’t show that exemptions or loopholes provide unfair advantages; in fact, just the opposite — it shows that taxes penalize entrepreneurs unlucky enough to be left holding the bill.

    Tax breaks are beneficial to those who claim them, but they are not subsidies. Rather, exemptions and loopholes are life jackets in a sea of wealth redistribution. Mises said it perfectly: “capitalism breathes through those loopholes.” Sadly, his simple insight continues to elude most commentators.

    Yet still, unsurprisingly, the deal has been condemned by devoted Trump-critics from across the ideological spectrum.

    David Boaz, vice president of the Cato Institute, found the offering of tax breaks and regulatory relief alarming, telling The Fiscal Times:

    This is not a precedent we want to see — American presidents aren’t supposed to interfere on behalf of individual companies. When the president does it himself it makes clear that this is a crony economy, to benefit the president’s friends, and that individual companies can be subject to pressure and punishment directly at the hands of the president.

    Of course, Trump didn’t make this deal by himself — he worked with the Vice President-elect Mike Pence, who is still the governor of Indiana. There’s also no indication that Trump’s deal with Carrier reflected any sort of personal interest in the specific company, but rather is part of a larger push to keep companies from re-locating overseas. While Trump’s rhetoric on trade, with a heavy focus on the potential use of tariffs, is itself troubling, there is nothing inherently wrong with an administration focused on keeping jobs in America — especially if this is accomplished by relieving tax and regulatory burdens.

    A more compelling argument against Trump’s deal was made by AEI’s James Pethokoukis:

    More broadly, this is all terrible for a nation's economic vitality if businesses make decisions to please politicians rather than customers and shareholders. Yet America's private sector has just been sent a strong signal that playing ball with Trump might be part of what it now means to run an American company. Imagine business after business, year after year, making decisions based partly on pleasing the Trump White House. … Indeed, one Indiana official, Politico reports, thinks the deal was driven by concerns United Technologies “could lose a portion of its roughly $6.7 billion in federal contracts.”

    Pethokoukis is correct, if business decisions start to be made entirely to please President Trump, then the American economy would suffer. But, again, the carrots Trump used for the Carrier deal involved lower taxes and a promise of regulatory relief. Should he follow through, then Trump’s economic policy would be helping American workers while simultaneously benefiting American customers and company shareholders. While future deals may deviate from this approach, and any move to push punishing tariffs should be rightfully criticized, it isn’t applicable in this specific situation.

    And while it’s fair to speculate that Carrier’s parent company, United Technologies Corp., is hoping any good will it builds with a Trump administration will either lead to future government contracts, or protect the ones it has, this is simply the unfortunate consequence of having government and business so tightly entwined to begin with. It is hardly unique to either the Carrier deal or the Trump administration.

    Of course it should come as no surprise that the most absurd analysis of Trump’s deal comes from Senator Bernie Sanders, who in The Washington Post wrote:

    Just a short few months ago, Trump was pledging to force United Technologies to “pay a damn tax.” He was insisting on very steep tariffs for companies like Carrier that left the United States and wanted to sell their foreign-made products back in the United States. Instead of a damn tax, the company will be rewarded with a damn tax cut. Wow! How’s that for standing up to corporate greed? How’s that for punishing corporations that shut down in the United States and move abroad?

     

    In essence, United Technologies took Trump hostage and won. And that should send a shock wave of fear through all workers across the country.

    Sanders main criticism is that Trump moved away from rhetoric punishing American businesses and instead tried to alleviate some of the additional costs government imposes on them. It’s not a surprise this upsets the senator from Vermont, as in his world, an opportunity to increase someone’s tax burden is a terrible thing to waste — which is why he campaigned on raising them for most of America.

    Though the deal with Carrier will go a long way to make America great again for those workers who were facing losing their jobs, it is a drop in the bucket for the ills that really plague the country. There are still many warning signs about what the economic policy of a Trump administration will look like. But not every action he takes will necessarily be bad policy.

    If Trump builds on this win with broader cuts on corporate taxes and regulatory relief, as he ran on during the campaign, than these policies should be praised — just as any future attacks on sound economics or individual liberty should be condemned.

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Today’s News 2nd December 2016

  • The 20 Most Sinister Psyop Leaflets Of All Time

    Submitted by Jake Anderson via TheAntiMedia.org,

    Some of the weirdest and most disturbing advertisements ever created are done so for military campaigns. They come in the form of propaganda leaflets, which are dropped by air or otherwise disseminated into a country or territory that is being invaded. Virtually every war since the beginning of the 20th century has produced these leaflets, which are also known as psyops or psychological operations and can be divided up into three categories: white, grey, and black. The intention is to use psychology and symbolism to influence members of the general population, inciting fear and, ultimately, compliance.

    Governments use psyops in a variety of contexts but the most common is during war, when entire populations must be convinced that killing in the name of God and State is not murder. Citizens also need an emotional impetus to grant their government the impunity to kill civilians and children in the most brutal of ways, including via unmanned drones. All but a few countries in the world are currently engaged in war, so there are a lot of psyops in progress as you read this.

    The following leaflets come to you thanks to the incredible archives of PsyWar.org. They are, in this author’s humble opinion, the most sinister psyop leaflets ever dropped:

    British leaflet produced by General Headquarters in France for German troops on the Western front 1915-1918

    psyop_germany

    British balloon distributed propaganda leaflets for German troops on the Western front, 1918

    psyop_early

    World War 2 Germany to Allies – “While you were away”

    psyop_yanks

    “Waiting in Vain”

    psyop_waitinginvain

    “Life is short – Death is quicker!”

    psyop_lifeisshort

    Christmas message from Soviet Union to Germany 1941-1945

    psyop_mother

    Japan to Allied Troops 1941-1945 – “CAPITALISTS DEMAND RED ENDLESSLY!”

    psyop_japan

    First Iraq War – 1991 – “Adhere to the following procedures to cease resistance”

    psyop_adhere

    “CEASE RESISTANCE BE SAFE”

    psyop_iraq1

    “Escape to Your Home!”

    psyop_escapetohome

    IFOR/SFOR BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA 1996-2004

    psyop_bosnia

    Operation Enduring Freedom – 2001-2002

    psyopleaflet

    psyop_leaflet2

    psyop_money

    Operation Iraqi Freedom – Coalition Psyop 2003-2004

    psyop_mosque

    psyop_leaflet3

    psyop_ordnance

    psyop_leaflet4

    Israel to Lebanon 2006 – “Your defenders are your destroyers”

    psyop_israel2

    psyop_israel

    These days, the internet has turned into a powerful new breeding ground for wartime psyops, but the psychological methods and imagery still follow the same tactics; you just have the added tools of chat rooms, social media, and forums as ways to manufacture consent.

  • JPMorgan Tells Investors: Ignore Mainstream Media

    In its 'year-forward' 2017 outlook, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic warns that:

    In the short-term, with additional rate hikes imminent and the record level of the USD, we are at an increased risk of repeating the scenario from January 2016 where fundamental and systematic investors were selling at the same time in the aftermath of a Fed hike (albeit, some risks are lower this time, such as higher Oil prices and a lack of focus on China/CNY). According to our macroeconomic model, the VIX also appears to be ~3 points too cheap (1 standard deviation) relative to dozens of macroeconomic variables.

     

    So what is driving the VIX and is it still a good measure of equity market risk? There are several factors that can explain the behavior of equity volatility this year. The first one is structural and we described it as market pinning during most of July and August, caused by option positioning. At the peak of market pinning in August, the S&P 500 realized less than 5% annualized volatility and moved less than 10bps on a number of days. As Brexit, the US election, and the September volatility spike were well anticipated events, they also resulted in covering of option hedges, and opportunistic selling of volatility. Low/negative bond yields increased the allure of selling volatility (and buying equities) and put further pressure on volatility levels. Finally, it appears that the time horizon of macro traders has shortened dramatically, likely as a result of increased participation of machines and algorithms that are quicker to adjust to significant events and can eliminate trading activity of slower investors (such as the overnight post-election move).

     

    What will market volatility be in 2017? We think that, fundamentally, risks for equities in 2017 are higher compared to 2016. We expect an increased level of geopolitical risk and increased uncertainties related to the new US administration. In Europe, significant risks include fallouts from Brexit, the referendum in Italy, elections in France and Germany, and continued tensions related to immigration. The Middle East will likely see further turmoil in relation to developments in Syria, and low Oil prices that continue exerting pressure on budgets of Oil exporters. While the US macroeconomic cycle may get a boost from the proposed fiscal stimulus, corporate tax reform and de-regulation, both the passage and efficacy of these measures are far from certain at this moment.

     

    The main market risk for equities will come from a stronger USD and higher rates, in our view, which can destabilize equity P/E, Emerging Markets, the housing market, and US equity segments such as multinationals, domestic manufacturing, bond proxies, etc. Higher USD and bond yields will also undercut the ability of the new US administration to revive US manufacturing or use the fiscal deficit to re-ignite growth.

     

    Periods of low volatility may mask underlying fundamental risks. These quiet periods will be followed by quick outbursts of volatility that may not last long enough to be captured by an average investor. Hedgers may buy volatility ahead of an event and sell shortly before the catalyst to capture volatility grinding higher (rather than a spectacular increase).

     

    To gauge market risks, equity investors should watch for further increases in bond yields and strengthening of USD. Geopolitical developments should be gauged from both traditional and non-traditional data sources (such as big data sentiment indicators, independent media outlets, etc.) given the failure of many traditional data sources to anticipate geopolitical developments this year.

    So in summary – don't trust the "fakeness" of a low VIX or the mainstream media when it comes to managing your money.

  • Trump's Treasury Secretary Pick Is A Lucky Man… Very Lucky

    Authored by Jesse Eisinger, originally posted at ProPublica.org,

    Steven Mnuchin has made a career out of being lucky.

    The former Goldman Sachs banker nominated to become Donald Trump’s treasury secretary had the perspicacity to purchase a collapsed subprime mortgage lender soon after the financial crisis, getting a sweet deal from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Now, if he’s confirmed, he will likely be able to take advantage of a tax perk given to government officials.

    Mnuchin was born into a family of Wall Street royalty. His father was an investment banker at Goldman Sachs for 30 years, serving in top management. He and his brother landed at the powerful firm, too. After making millions in mortgage trading, Mnuchin struck out on his own, creating a hedge fund and building a record of smart and well-timed investment moves.

    He dodged disaster when he inherited his mother’s portfolio. She was a longtime investor with Bernie Madoff, the largest Ponzi schemer in American history. After she died in early 2005, Mnuchin and his brother quickly liquidated her investments, making $3.2 million. The Madoff trustee, Irving Picard, sued to retrieve the money from the Mnuchins, as he did from other Ponzi scheme winners, contending that they were fake gains. A court ruled that Picard could only claw back money from those who had cashed out within two years before the collapse. The Mnuchins, having pulled out roughly three years before, got to keep their Madoff money. That something was dodgy about Madoff was an open secret on Wall Street.

    After the financial crisis, the FDIC seized IndyMac, whose irresponsible mortgage loans failed as the housing bubble burst. Desperate to offload the bank, the FDIC subsidized the takeover by sheltering Mnuchin and his team of investors, including hedge fund managers John Paulson and George Soros, from losses. The investors injected $1.55 billion into the bank in 2009. They changed the name to OneWest and five years later, sold it to lender CIT for more than $3 billion, doubling their investment.

    Mnuchin also benefited from what may have been a nice fluke a little later. He served as the co-chair of Relativity Media, a film and entertainment company, for about eight months until May 2015. Relativity filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in July 2015. Just before it collapsed, Relativity paid off a $50 million loan to Mnuchin’s bank, OneWest, in full.

    Paying off one creditor in full just before filing for bankruptcy looks questionable, especially when there is the appearance that such a deal isn’t at arm’s length. One Relativity investor cried fraud and sued in 2015, contending that Relativity used its loans for improper purposes, including to make payments to OneWest. Mnuchin’s lawyer called the claims preposterous and the suit was initially thrown out. A lawyer for the investor, a film financing company, told the Los Angeles Times that it planned to refile.

    Mnuchin was blessed again when the Obama administration did not crack down harder on foreclosure abuses. OneWest got a reputation among activists and borrowers as one of the more feckless banks, accused of throwing borrowers out of their homes, denying mortgage modifications, and targeting the elderly with reverse mortgages. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency settled with OneWest, and over a dozen other banks and mortgage servicers, over its robosigning practices in 2011. That regulatory settlement, called the Independent Foreclosure Review, was an utter debacle, as ProPublica has detailed. Regulators set up a process for consultants to review how the servicers had handled modification reviews, which meant in effect that the banks were monitoring themselves. The regulators did not punish any top financial executives over foreclosure mistreatment. In a happy circumstance for Mnuchin, the Department of Justice and state attorneys general did not include OneWest in their subsequent and more punitive settlement over foreclosure bad behavior.

    Mnuchin was fortunate once more to pick the right candidate, Trump, early; most of Wall Street assumed that Hillary Clinton would win and bet accordingly with its political donations.

    What good happenstance, then, that Trump didn’t mean what he said about Wall Street on the campaign trail.

    On the stump, Trump said, “We will never be able to fix a rigged system by counting on the people who rigged it in the first place.” He attacked Goldman Sachs by name, saying that the bank “owns” Ted Cruz, whose wife worked at the firm. “I know the guys at Goldman Sachs,” he said, “They have total, total control over [Cruz]. Just like they have total control over Hillary Clinton.” Trump put an image of Goldman CEO and chairman Lloyd Blankfein, along with other Jewish figures in finance like George Soros and Janet Yellen, in a commercial late in the campaign that was widely decried as anti-Semitic.

    Trump did not feel such a strong antipathy for Goldman that he passed over a firm veteran to be his treasury secretary.

    Mnuchin still owned $97 million of CIT stock as of last February. The Treasury Department will likely require him to sell those shares, since it poses a conflict of interest for the treasury secretary to own a stake in a financial institution. But therein lies a final good break for Mnuchin: According to a provision of the tax code, he can defer taxes, as long as he complies with certain conditions. That benefit, available to all officials who are required to sell investments upon taking a government job, could be worth millions to Mnuchin.

  • Payrolls Preview: Unemployment Rate Expected To Drop (But Blame The Weather & Calendar If Not)

    A series of stronger than expected data in recent days pushed Goldman Sachs to up their payrolls growth expectation to 200k (above the 180k expectations), but they note that while the unemployment rate is likely to drop (to 4.8%), average hourly earnings may disappoint. Of course, they add, any non-narrative-confirming misses on the data can likely be explained away by "weather effects and residual seasonality."

    As Goldman details, we forecast that nonfarm payroll growth increased to 200k in November, after an increase of 161k in October. We have revised up our forecast from 180k previously reflecting stronger data this week. Labor market indicators were stronger on balance last month, including improvements in reported job availability, the ADP report, and the employment components of service-sector surveys. In addition, we see a likely boost from positive weather effects and possible residual seasonality.

    Arguing for a stronger report:

    Job availability. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get—rose to +5.2, reversing a small decline in October. This measure has risen by about ten points over the last year.

     

    Service sector surveys. The employment components of service sector surveys mostly improved in November. The Richmond Fed (+7pt to +13), Dallas Fed (+6.5pt to +9.2), and New York Fed (+2.2pt to +10.9, after our seasonal adjustment) measures of service sector employment all strengthened. The Philly Fed non-manufacturing employment index edged down (-0.7pt to +15.6) but remains at levels consistent with expansion. Service sector employment increased 142k in October and has increased 161k on average over the last six months.

     

    ADP. The payroll processing firm ADP reported a 216k gain in private payroll employment in November, up from a downwardly revised 119k increase in October. While this is a significant beat, the new methodology ADP introduced last month creates some additional uncertainty around the translation of this upside ADP surprise into the outlook for tomorrow’s nonfarm payroll report.

     

    Some rebound from Hurricane-related weakness. In October, employment in the three sectors that we find are most sensitive to weather-related swings – retail, construction, and leisure and hospitality – increased by 20k, which is a smaller gain than the 6-month (33k) and 12-month (73k) average changes through September. Among East Coast states, employment in these sectors declined by a total of 16k in October, relative to an average monthly increase of 15k over the prior six months (Exhibit 1). Some of the biggest declines were in Florida and South Carolina, the states most impacted by Hurricane Matthew.

     

    Seasonals. Since the recession, November payroll growth has surprised consensus expectations roughly 2/3 of the time, with an average surprise of +27k.

     

    Exhibit 1: Some Potential Upside from East Coast States Impacted by Hurricane-related Weakness

    Source: Department of Labor, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

    Neutral Factors:

    Temporary election-related hiring. Election-related hiring typically shows up to some degree in the government and marketing research and opinion polling categories in the non-seasonally adjusted payroll data. However, the BLS makes a special adjustment to these changes to remove the effects of the election and in prior election years those categories did not spike on a seasonally adjusted basis in November. Therefore, it is unlikely we will see any direct election effect in the seasonally adjusted series.

     

    Jobless claims: Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits moved slightly higher, with the four-week moving average edging up to 253k in the November survey week. Initial claims were affected by technical factors including temporary auto plant shutdowns and weather-related effects from Hurricane Matthew, but we do not detect a significant change in the underlying trend which continues to show low layoff activity in the economy.

     

    Job cuts: Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas after our seasonal adjustment increased by 4k to 32k in November, but remain close to cycle-lows.

    Arguing for a weaker report:

    Online job ads. The Conference Board’s Help Wanted Online (HWOL) report reversed last month’s gains, and stands 15% lower than levels last year. However, we put limited weight on this indicator at the moment in light of research by Fed economists that argued that the HWOL ad count has been depressed by higher prices for online job ads.

     

    Manufacturing sector surveys. The employment components of manufacturing surveys were mixed in November. The ISM manufacturing (-0.6pt to 52.3), Chicago PMI, Empire State (-6.2pt to -10.9), and Kansas City Fed (-6pt to +1) employment indexes all declined, while the Dallas Fed (+4.3pt to +4.5), Richmond Fed (+2pt to +5), and Philly Fed (+1.4pt to -2.4) measures edged up. Manufacturing employment declined by 9k in the October report, and has declined by 7k on average over the last six months.

    We expect the unemployment rate to edge down to 4.8% in the November report from an unrounded 4.876% in October. Last month, the household survey showed a 43k decline in employment but the unemployment rate edged down to 4.9% due to a decline in labor force participation. The broader U6 unemployment rate dropped to a new post-crisis low of 9.5% as the number of involuntary part-time and marginally attached workers both declined.

    We expect average hourly earnings to increase 0.1% month-over-month, or 2.7% from a year ago, after rising to a new cycle high of 2.8% year-on-year in October. A modest retracement of last month’s gains and negative calendar effects are likely to contribute to a softer number. Our wage tracker, which captures the broader trend in wage growth across four major indicators, stands at 2.6% year-over-year as of Q3.

    *  *  *

    Finally, we look forward to seeing The White House spokesperson basking in the afterglow of their track record compared to president-elect Trump's likely tweeted response.

  • Not Zero Sum: World Bond Markets Endure $1.7 Trillion Sell Off; Equities Gain $635 Billion

    According to Bloomberg, world equity markets gained $635b in market cap, while bonds lost $1.7t — leaving a deficit of more than $1 trillion since the election. Much of those losses were absorbed by foreign governments, the cucks participating in never ending QE schemes. The balance sheets of the ECB and Federal Reserve are looking much worse now than just one month ago.

    source: Bloomberg

    “The market has moved with remarkable swiftness to price in the anticipated reflationary impact of a Trump administration,” said Matthew Cairns, a strategist at Rabobank International in London. “This has, in turn, prompted a notable rotation out of fixed income and into equities.”

    Still, Cairns cautioned the moves are “remarkable given the distinct lack of clarity as regards what policies the president-elect will actually pursue.”

    November’s rout wiped a record $1.7 trillion from the global index’s value in a month that saw world equity markets’ capitalization climb $635 billion.

    The yield on 10-year U.S. notes rose 56 basis points in November, the biggest jump since 2009, and was at 2.44 percent as of about 4 p.m. in New York, after reaching the highest since June 2015.

    The average yield on the Bloomberg Barclays Global gauge climbed to 1.61 percent on Nov. 23, after touching a record low of 1.07 percent on July 5.

    “A lot of people are beginning to think that it is the end of the bull rally,” said Roger Bridges, chief global strategist for interest rates and currencies in Sydney at Nikko Asset Management’s Australia unit, which oversees $14 billion. U.S. 10-year yields may rise to 2.7 percent in January, Bridges said.

    I think it’s important to remind people that the stock market has been soaring on the hopes of rapid GDP growth under Trump — who promised to build all sorts of stuff — walls, tunnels, bridges etc. What people don’t seem to grasp, unfortunately, is that in order to fund these projects the government needs to tap the bond markets.

    The 10yr bond yield has risen from 1.75% to 2.44% over the past month. The cost to service the national debt has skyrocketed — making it increasingly difficult to enact ambitious fiscal stimulus. Couple that with the break-neck gains in the dollar, especially against our chief trading rivals (+14% v yen over the past month), and one can easily paint a picture that all of the recent grandeur in equity markets has only served to ingratiate the wealthiest in the country and have hampered the specter of any real fundamental change, via fiscal stimulus, promised by Trump — which is central to his platform.

    Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

  • Who Still Lives At Home With Their Parents?

    Via Priceonomics.com,

    Living at home with your parents isn't just for little kids anymore. Young adults are now more likely to live with their parents than in any other living arrangement, according to a recent report by the Pew Research Center. Recent college grads aren’t alone; adults in the 25-29 and 30-34 age brackets are also moving home in record numbers.

    What forces are steering people into their parents’ basements? We wanted to find out, so we analyzed data from Earnest , a Priceonomics customer. We analyzed a dataset of more than 60,000 user responses to questions about their living situations to understand how it's influenced by factors like gender, age, location, and education.

    In our sample, 15% of the adults live with their parents. But that figure is higher in parts of the country with a high cost of living, underscoring the fact that income is a key determinant of living situation. Accordingly, people who have greater earning potential—as a result of earning a graduate degree or specializing in science, technology, engineering, or math (the STEM fields)—are the most likely to live independently.

    ***

    We first wanted to look at the impact of gender on living arrangement. The chart below shows the proportion of males and females in our sample who live with their parents.

    Data source: Earnest

    Men have gotten press lately for earning degrees at lower rates than women and entering the workplace in decreasing numbers. But we found that males and females are virtually even when it comes to living at home.

    We next considered age. Is it fair to characterize people who live at home mostly as recent college grads? We broke our sample into eight age groups and charted the percentage of each group that lives with their parents below. 

    Data source:  Earnest

    Indeed, younger adults are far more likely than older ones to live with their parents. In our sample, the average age of a person living at home was 27. The average renter and owner were 31 and 37, respectively. 

    At the tail end of this graph, we see a small number of older adults reporting to live with their parents. This could represent a group that lives with elderly parents to provide care.

    We wanted to know where these multigenerational households are located. Are they equally common across the country, or are there hotspots where adults are more likely to live at home? We calculated the percentage of the population that lives at home in each state for which we had at least 10 responses. 

    Data source:  Earnest

    Likelihood of living at home varies by location. More adults live with their parents in places like Hawaii and the New York metropolitan area—areas where the cost of living, and thus the bar one must clear to live independently, is high. 

    Conversely, states in the middle of the country are associated with both a lower cost of living and a larger proportion of independent adults. Indeed, our map resembles maps that  show the cost of living across the United States.

    If cost of living influences living arrangements, people are likely living at home out of financial necessity. We would then expect income to be low among people who live with their parents. Is it? 

    For each of four income brackets, we calculated the percentage of adults living at home, considering only the respondents who specified an income. Users who left this field blank were not included.

    Data source:  Earnest

    Our data suggest that people who live at home do so because they can’t afford to live independently. This group makes an average annual income of around $6,000. That’s not enough to pay the rent, no matter which state you live in.

    Yet, some people who live at home make a wage that should allow them to live independently. Like the older groups in our age analysis, these high earners could be older adults in established households who live with elderly parents to provide, not receive, support.

    A person’s income is strongly influenced by their education. Are those who live at home less educated than their independent counterparts? We grouped our data based on highest degree attained, then calculated the percentage of each group that lives with their parents.

    Data source:  Earnest

    In general, having more education means it’s less likely you’ll live at home: just 3% of PhDs live with their parents, versus a quarter of those with only a high school diploma.

    Surprisingly, a two-year associate’s degree grants more independence than a bachelor’s: 18% of associate’s degree-holders live with their parents, compared to 20% of bachelor’s-holders. This could be owing to the greater student loan burden faced by the latter group.

    Even within one of these categories, not all degrees are created equal. A bachelor’s degree in a STEM discipline may offer access to more lucrative jobs than one in the humanities. Does it also affect living situation? 

    We grouped our sample based on self-reported major and charted the percentage of each group that lives at home below.

    Data source:  Earnest

    Just 8.2 percentage points separate all majors we considered, except law. Compare this to the 22-point spread between PhD-holders and high school grads in our degree analysis above. What you study matters less than the level of education you attain. 

    That said, students of the hard sciences, plus law and education, are more likely to live away from home, whereas students of the humanities and “soft” sciences like psychology have more trouble leaving the nest.

    But a person’s independence is likely determined by a combination of what they study and the level of education they attain. Entry level jobs in STEM may pay as well as jobs held by PhDs in non-STEM fields. Does that translate to more independence in living situation?

    To find out, we grouped our sample by highest degree attained and major (classified simply as STEM or non-STEM). The percentage of each group living at home is displayed below.

    Data source:  Earnest

    Having a graduate degree in any discipline matters more than having it in any particular one: individuals with master’s degrees—in STEM or not—live at home in the lowest numbers.

    But for bachelor’s and associate’s degree-seekers, major matters. For both degrees, STEM students are less likely to live at home than are non-STEM majors. Associate’s degree-holders in STEM are also more independent than holders of STEM or non-STEM bachelor’s degrees. Again, this may be due to the higher student loan burden faced by graduates of 4-year schools.

    ***

    So what should you do if you’d like to live independently? Our data indicate that it’s all about income.

    First, live in an affordable state. Avoiding the coasts, and certainly the New York metropolitan area, would be a good idea.

    Seeking education should also be a priority. Earning a bachelor’s or associate’s degree will reduce your chances of living at home, and signing up for a graduate degree will further increase your independence.

    Finally, studying STEM will also help boost you out of the nest. In every degree program we considered, STEM majors lived at home less often than did students of non-STEM disciplines.

  • After A "Run On The Pension Fund" Dallas Mayor Demands Halt Of Withdrawals

    We’ve written several times over the past couple of months about the epic meltdown of the the Dallas Police and Firefighters Pension (DPFP) (see here, here and here for background).  It all started when the Pension Board discovered that one of their real estate managers had been consistently overmarking illiquid real estate investments.  That discovery resulted in an FBI investigation of the manager and a $1BN write down for the DPFP.  In the wake of the writedowns, Dallas policemen and firefighters rushed for the exits and withdrew over $500mm in assets. 

    Fearing a “run on the bank” that could push the whole city of Dallas into bankruptcy, Mayor Mike Rawlings has just sent a scathing letter to the DPFP Pension Board demanded that withdrawals be halted immediately until the “solvency and actuarial soundness of the Pension System is restored.”

    As the Board is well aware, at the beginning of this year, the actuarial value of assets under your supervision and control were reset to market value, resulting in a $1 billion valuation loss.  This significant markdown was the result of years of mismanagement and abuse. 

     

    Critically the Pension System’s actuary warned that the Pension System would become insolvent even sooner if Deferred Retirement Option Plan (“DROP”) funds are drawn down in less than a ten-year period.

     

    Despite this clear warning, you have inexplicably paid out nearly $500 million in lump-sum DROP withdrawals over a matter of mere months – notwithstanding your power to unilaterally restrict or limit DROP withdrawals.  In doing so, you have knowingly allowed DROP funds to be withdrawn at record levels, cognizant that doing so is irreparably harming the Pensions System’s solvency and liquidity.

     

    Already, as a result of your actions, the Pension System’s ability to pay its members’ future benefits has been irreparably reduced from a period of 15 years to 10 years.  Further, both the City of Dallas and the Pension System have projected that DROP withdrawals, if unabated, will lead to a liquidity crisis in the Pension System with the next 90 days, causing a forced sale of illiquid assets.  Your Board Chairman summed it up best when referring to the payment of DROP withdrawals: “- the continuation of this practice would be financial suicide.”  And yet the practice continues. 

     

    Given the urgency of this matter, I request a response within 48 hours as to whether the Board will immediately cease DROP payments until such time as the solvency and actuarial soundness of the Pension System is restored.

    MR

     

    As the Dallas Morning News points out, the DPFP’s previous management refused to believe that a “run on the bank” was possible and feared any efforts to limit withdrawals would have just resulted in “backlash from police and firefighters when the restrictions were lifted.”  Instead of limiting withdrawals, in fact, the Pension Board proposed a $1BN, taxpayer funded bailout. 

    The previous administration didn’t believe the run on the bank would ever happen. When The Dallas Morning News asked then-administrator Richard Tettamant about the possibility in 2012, he replied that it wouldn’t happen.

     

    “This could happen to Bank of America or Fidelity Investments as well, but as with them, there would be no reason for people to do that,” Tettamant said in an email. “The pension system has sufficient liquid assets to cover all DROP distribution requests.”

     

    More than $500 million has been withdrawn from the $1.5 billion fund this year. Most of it came after Aug. 11, when the pension fund proposed benefit cuts to help save it from insolvency caused by overvalued and risky real estate investments made by the previous administration.

     

    Still, the current pension board, which includes four City Council members, unanimously decided not to restrict DROP withdrawals this year after  hours of deliberations and legal advice given behind closed doors.

     

    Pension board members believed they couldn’t restrict the withdrawals forever and feared the backlash from police and firefighters when the restrictions were lifted. And they hoped that keeping DROP open would boost confidence in the fund.

    Meanwhile, Rawlings didn’t earn any new friends among police or firefighters with his letter, as the President of the Dallas Fire Fighters Association lashed out at the Mayor for throwing “gasoline on the fire.”

    Dallas Fire Fighters Association President Jim McDade also blasted the mayor for the letter. He said the city needs to step up instead of throwing “gasoline on the fire.”

     

    “If the mayor believes that his letter will stop the ‘run on the bank’ he is wrong,” McDade said in a written statement. “He just created a SPRINT to the bank.”

    Alas, while Dallas police and fire fighters may ultimately endure some short-term pain if redemptions are temporarily halted, we suspect that the real long-term losers, as per the usual, will be taxpayers who will be forced to pony up whatever amount of money is required to keep the whole farce going just a little longer.

     

    Here is the full letter from Dallas Mayor Mike Rawlings:

  • Yahoo's Advice To Trump: Educate Children In Media Literacy To Combat Fake News

    Submitted by Joseph Jankowski via PlanetFreeWeill.com,

    Writing for Yahoo News, National Political Columnist Matt Bai provides a suggestion to combat the so-called “fake news” epidemic that has become a major talking point of the mainstream media since Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election. According to Bai, we should be “teaching our kids how to consume” information in an age where the internet has provided a press to anyone with a computer and a router.

    Within his article, titled “The real problem behind fake news“, Bai calls fake news a “searing hot topic these days” and mentions the infamous WaPo article which cites a shadowy, anonymous organization known as PropOrNot (Propaganda or Not) that smears many legitimate conservative and libertarian news sources like Zero Hedge, Infowars, Breitbart, World Net Daily and The Ron Paul Institute as Russian propaganda.

    That WaPo article highlighted what was the second blacklist of websites to make its rounds in the mainstream press last month. The first list was put together by a nobody liberal professor from Merrimack College (let me tell you how worthy of circulation that is).

    Bai writes:

    The emergence of “fake news” is a searing hot topic these days, as you’ve probably heard — a new, truth-free media to go with our new, truth-free politics. The Washington Post reports that a lot of these phony stories, some of which probably influenced the election in at least a tangential way, originate with Russian “bots” programmed to confuse American readers. (Payback, I guess, for all those years when Voice of America did the same thing.)

     

    Under enormous pressure, Facebook and Google have now promised to do a better job of curating the content that populates their sites. Which is all very comforting, if you really want software engineers assuming the role of civic arbiter that has traditionally fallen to journalists. I don’t.

     

    And the problem with cracking down on social media sites is that it’s a little like the war on drugs. You can try to stamp out the supply of garbage news, but the Web is a vast place, and as long as someone can make money off misinformation, it will always find a crack through which to seep.

    Aside from citing the WaPo hit piece on basically all effective news outlets outside the MSM realm, Bai is being reasonable. Most will agree, it is better not to have Facebook and Google taking on the role of civic arbiter and information gatekeeper. And the promoting of a crackdown on social media could lead to the very slippery slope of censorship.

    The Yahoo News journalist goes on to writes:

    No, the long-term solution here is about stemming the demand. The answer doesn’t lie in hectoring tech companies into policing content, but rather in teaching our kids how to consume it.

    Bai says that “navigating the news media isn’t intuitive anymore” and compares it to flying a plane rather than driving a car.

    “A Big Bang at the genesis of the Internet age” has fractured the entire (Media) industry and its audience into a million pieces,” he says.

    “The proliferation of social media and the rise of mindless aggregation” is also causing this problem of “fake news” reaching the masses, Bia writes.

    My kids will spend months of their young lives studying the Revolution and the Civil War and the advent of mass production, which is fine. In grade school, they spend some part of every year revisiting the social movements of the ’60s, which is noble and important.

     

    But what’s called “media literacy” in the education world — the ability to consume torrents of information with some level of competence and sophistication — is still an outlier in social studies curricula, despite having been discussed now for decades. Even when it’s taught, it’s crammed into a high school unit, by which time today’s grade-schoolers will have been surfing YouTube for half their lives.

    It seems like a great idea, teach kids how to objectively analyze the media. But, if we are to take the mainstream media’s labeling of “fake news” seriously, we will find ourselves telling our children that only big networks like CNN and MSNBC are trustworthy sources.

    The real problem with the entire fake news narrative is that “fake news”, by PropOrNot’s definition, is really not a problem at all.

    The mainstream media is telling everyone that since Google’s algorithm made a mistake by linking to a false news report, individuals now must surrender their ability to look at things objectively and only trust the big news networks.

    Just look at PropOrNot.com’s blacklist, it is full of alternative news sites that now have large enough audiences to bang heads with the corporate controlled press. And considering that the trust in the mainline news is equal to that of trust in congress, this can only be seen as a way to discredit the grassroots news organizations that are threatening the old media’s reign.

    The labeling of fake news should be left up the internet user who might stumble across some wrong information or even some disinformation.

    It would be foolish to allow the mainstream press, an unknown organization that hides its identity and a leftist professor that teaches feminist media studies, to provide what is real and what is not.

    I would also not be too enthusiastic on the public school system, that runs off federal funding, embracing the rise of alternative voices in media that are usually critical of government (the way it is suppose to be).

    Matt Bai ends his piece for Yahoo with a very laughable thought.

    Here’s a radical thought: If President Trump is looking for a bold and useful education initiative that might serve the incidental purpose of redeeming what’s left of his soul, media literacy would be a pretty good place to start. Getting behind a nationwide push in K-through-12 classrooms could be an important and unifying priority for the incoming education secretary, Betsy DeVos.

     

    Willingly or not, Trump has done more than anyone else to expose the problem. The least he can do is begin to address it.

    HA!

    You mean the Donald Trump that absolutely ridiculed the mainstream media during a meeting last month over their blatant bias coverage of the election and misrepresentations?

    Hate to break it to you Matt, but if Trump were to do that many of the websites on the PropOrNot list cited by WaPo would be presented as “real news” to our children. CNN and ABC would be identified as the establishment government lapdogs that they are.

    I hope Trump takes your advice.

  • 70% Of Immigrants Admitted Under Obama's "Minor Refugee" Program Are Actually Adults

    Two years ago the Obama administration sought out to tackle a “crisis” that involved minors seeking out “human smugglers” to help with transportation across the U.S. – Mexico border.  So, with a swipe of the pen, Obama signed an executive order allowing minors of certain Central American countries to flee to the U.S. under a “refugee/parole program.” 

    Two years later, there’s just one problem: 70% of the people admitted under the program are actually adults.  According to MRC TV, official data from the State Department indicates that of the 1,600 aliens that have traveled to the U.S. under the CAM program to date, only 480 of them are actually under the age of 18. 

    Now, under the CAM program, the State Department told MRCTV in an email Wednesday that of the 1,600 aliens who have traveled to the United States to date, only 480 of them – just 30 percent – are children under the age of 18.

     

    Conversely, a full 70 percent of those aliens who’ve been allowed into the United States under the president’s program for “minors” are adults.

    The controversial initiative was launched in December 2014 as part of President Obama’s executive actions on immigrants, and was touted as a way to bring illegal alien children from certain Central American countries into the United States to be reunited with their families, who are often here illegally themselves.  The move was allegedly designed to keep underage children from relying on dangerous human smugglers to bring them across the U.S. –Mexico border illegally.  Per the State Department:

    The United States is establishing an in-country refugee/parole program in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras to provide a safe, legal, and orderly alternative to the dangerous journey that some children are currently undertaking to the United States. This program will allow certain parents who are lawfully present in the United States to request access to the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program for their children still in one of these three countries. Children who are found ineligible for refugee admission but still at risk of harm may be considered for parole on a case-by-case basis. The refugee/parole program will not be a pathway for undocumented parents to bring their children to the United States, but instead, the program will provide certain vulnerable, at-risk children an opportunity to be reunited with parents lawfully resident in the United States.

    Immigrant Detention

     

    And, like many government initiatives, the CAM program has been completely ineffective in slowing the number of children crossing the U.S.-Mexico border.  In fact, as MRC points out, U.S. Customs and Border Protection recently reported that it apprehended 97% more unaccompanied illegal minors at the border this October than last year. 

    On top of failing to provide much help to many child “refugees,” the CAM program hasn’t made a notable impact on the number of unaccompanied children and families who’ve elected to come into the United States illegally via the Mexican border – which is the very problem the initiative was supposedly created to alleviate.

     

    U.S. Customs and Border Protection reports it apprehended another 4,973 unaccompanied illegal alien children (UACs) at the U.S.-Mexico border in October, up 97 percent from the 2,519 UACs that border agents apprehended in October of last year. That same month, the Obama administration released more than 6,000 illegal alien children to sponsors living in the United States.

     

    CBP also caught another 6,029 family units crossing the Southwest U.S. border illegally during the month of October, a total 179 percent higher than the 2,162 family units the agency caught in October of last year. The border surge has increased so much, in fact, that officials are now warning the wave is already threatening to overwhelm their resources.

     

    In fact, CBP data shows that since President Obama launched the costly CAM program in December 2014, nearly 100,000 unaccompanied alien children and more than 123,000 family units have been apprehended at the U.S.-Mexico border.

    But don’t worry, even though the CAM program has been proven completely ineffective, it only cost taxpayers ~$1BN in 2016 so no big deal.

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Today’s News 1st December 2016

  • The Real Reasons Why Another American Civil War Is Possible

    Submitted by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    You have to hand it to the regressive left, when they conjure propaganda they really know how to run with it. When their indoctrination doesn’t take, and the public stops them cold with a wall of skepticism, they don’t give up! No — the little buggers double down and go for broke!

    I would point out, however, that this seemingly boundless drive to forsake all logic and reason in the name of ideology is not due to these people being special in their ambition. Rather, they are following a somewhat successful historic model; the model of communism. And by successful, I mean successfully destructive.

    With Donald Trump on the way to the White House in January, along with a Republican majority in Congress and the Senate, leftists long accustomed to dominating the public narrative through the mainstream media have found themselves without leverage. Now, they must resort to ankle biting with efforts like the “fake news” meme, which is designed to undermine the alternative media through ad hominem.  Obviously this will fail.  It is far too late for the mainstream media to gain back any social capital, and they will have to adapt or die out.

    With this avenue closing for the left, the next stage will be direct asymmetrics; they will use subversion at a more localized level; working to provoke “marginalized” groups into taking extreme action in order to illicit a negative and totalitarian response from conservatives.

    I am rather well versed on the history of communist insurgencies, and one simple reality that consistently stands out to me is that wherever communist movements exist, war follows.  They may claim to be peaceful in their aims and methods, they may claim to want what is best for society as a whole, but when these movements are denied access to social evolution, they almost always revert to violent means.  The primary reason for this, I believe, is that they really do assume at their very core that their ideal is the ONLY ideal.

    They think they are heroes, awakened to a world view that the rest of us are incapable of comprehending. In their minds, anyone seeking to obstruct them is either dangerously ignorant or a fascist hellbent on sabotaging humanity’s “natural progression” into the leftist utopia.   Therefore any and all actions are justified on their part.  They are fighting “evil.”  And, of course, conservatives like you and I are the physical manifestations of that evil.  We are the super-villains that must be destroyed at all costs in the leftist fantasy world.

    As I noted in my last article, Order Out Of chaos: The Defeat Of The Left Comes With A Cost, regressives in the form of social justice warriors are currently more cute in their provocations than dangerous, but this is only an early stage of their movement.  When these people do not get what they want, when they realize that propaganda methods are not effective, they will inevitably turn toward militancy and aggressive mob action.  This is the problem with zealots: they are infinitely capable of moral relativity.  They are monsters in people suits just waiting to be unleashed, but made even more dangerous by their self-image as guardians.

    There is nothing worse than a psychopath with a desperate desire to nurture you.

    After my last article, some readers responded that they understood my basic premise — that the left versus right dynamic is being instigated by global elites, and that this could result in both sides moving to opposing extremes of the political spectrum; communism versus fascism.  That said, they also wanted to know what I thought should be done about the left in particular?  Sure, the elites are the root cause of the threat, but what about all the crazed leftists the elites hide behind and exploit?  Don’t we have to deal with them at some point as well?

    I would say yes, though our reaction must be measured or we risk falling into the paradigm trap the elites have constructed for us.

    So, here is the reality — when a movement like the social justice cult reverts to zealotry, there is nothing that can be done to persuade them otherwise.  Some will leave the movement behind, but the majority will refuse to acknowledge that their ideology has failed to sway the masses, and that this might be due to the fact that their ideology is highly flawed. They will seek instead to FORCE us into compliance. This ensures that a violent conflict will eventually arise.

    The danger is that while conservatives now appear to hold the keys to the behemoth that is government after wrestling it from the left (again, at least in appearance), we will be tempted to swing the cannons of the bureaucratic battleship towards our foes and in our favor.  I’ll have to use the old Lord of the Rings analogy once again here — big government is like the “one ring;” it will always result in evil, no matter who is wearing it.  Good people will take hold of it thinking they can resist abusing it and that they will exploit its incredible power to help others; and they will fall into darkness like everyone else.

    The solution?  Conservatives must face leftist extremists on equal ground. We must avoid the temptation of using government as a weapon to extinguish them.  We must avoid stooping to their level.  Otherwise, there is an serious risk that we will falter in our principles and become just as bad if not worse than the regressive left.  And yes, this means a decentralized civil war — a war in which government is denied as a player.  As long as conservatives refuse to wield government as a sword in our arsenal, we will win against all enemies.  The second we wimp out and beg government to aid us in our fight, we will be co-opted and assimilated by the elites.

    But what would this conflict look like?

    I could see an insurgency versus an insurgency scenario, but this is only if the right refuses to join with government to exact its goals.

    In the meantime, I welcome you to look at theories on this from the left side of the spectrum. Check out this article, referencing military “experts” from the ever regressive and dwindling Cracked Magazine titled 6 Reasons Why A New Civil War Is Possible And Terrifying, published at the beginning of November.

    While Cracked does briefly address the notion that a civil war could be triggered by the left in the U.S., their article was published before the election, clearly with the assumption that Donald Trump was bound to lose and that “right wing extremists” were the greatest threat to peace and stability in the wake of a Clinton presidency. The majority of their list is composed of scenarios in which “anti-government” right wingers could undermine social cohesion and was no doubt supplemented thoroughly by the Southern Poverty Law Center.

    I also want to quickly point out that the No. 2 threat on the Cracked list of civil war threats was the Thermal Evasion Suit I designed!  Or at least, the notion that we have the ability and knowledge to build these kinds of countermeasures.  Here’s a quote from the article:

    "But in my lurking on militia sites, I did occasionally run into information that looked like it had its basis in something other than a manual. Take this guide to evading drones published by the Oath Keepers, an anti-government group made up of former military and police veterans."

     

    [Cracked never actually links to the video, they just show a still photo.  Clearly they did not want people watching it and deciding for themselves what my intent was.]

     

    "I had a former drone operator review the video. He said their “thermal evasion suit” was based on a “decent premise”, although he said it would only work well if the shooter was stationary. It’s impossible to know if the info in this video came from someone with direct (albeit outdated) drone experience. In his time among America’s many militias, Bill said, “…I’ve probably ran into direct training” of groups by military veterans, “…five or six times, in five different states. It’s incredibly prevalent."

    I’m not sure exactly who their “expert” was.  Apparently he thought I was building an invisibility suit because he mentions the problem of “movement,” which no suit I know of can hide. They also state something about “outdated drone experience,” yet don’t actually qualify that with anything of substance. Finally, they insinuate that I somehow received help from military insiders with top-secret knowledge, and this is how I managed to design a thermal evasion system.  In fact, I came up with the design and materials on my own and brought it to Oath Keepers, who aided in the testing phase.  Not one drone expert was on hand to feed me design information.

    The point is, these people have no idea what they are talking about. Cracked never contacted me about the suit even though my face and email address are all over the video. It was not “impossible to know” if I received insider information; all they had to do was ask.  The left in their zealotry likes to jump to conclusions. They also assume we are a bunch of dumb hillbillies, when we are in fact much smarter and more innovative than they are.

    While Cracked and their so-called “experts” are hopelessly naive in many respects, they do make a few solid observations.

    First, they present the issue of lack of trust in government and police forces on the part of the public. They seem to suggest this is a bad thing by claiming that distrust of government leads to insurgency.  I would say distrust of government is the healthiest state a society can exist in.

    That said, I would remind readers that conservatives will take over the helm of the government ship as of 2017.  And, as I warned when I predicted a Trump election win back in June, the elites have allowed us into authority at a time when trust in government is at historic lows.  We have been handed the reigns of power, but I say this is not a cure, but a curse. We will no longer be considered freedom fighters.  We will be considered the jackboot stomping on the face of America.

    Second, Cracked brings up the problem of infrastructure interference, such as highway bombings and other methods of breaking down travel and supply routes.  They mention this based on the premise that we right wingers might set up IEDs using tannerite to terrorize road networks.

    We’ve already seen something like this, but not from the right wing.  Leftists are notorious lately for building human walls across major roads in order to shut down movement.  I would suggest that they will do this with more frequency (and with more violence) once winter winds down (leftists can’t stand the cold, which is why most of them live near beaches). Communists like to disrupt supply chains and production; they know this is the quickest path to instigating mass panic.

    Third, the Cracked article argues that right wingers might adopt the methods of ISIS in our bid for supremacy, which is extraordinarily absurd if you know anything at all about conservatives.

    It is actually the left that has shown time and time again their affinity for Muslim extremism.  They defend it openly and publicly. You would think all the social justice feminists and gay rights groups would view the Muslim world as a carnival of horrors being that in almost any Muslim controlled nation on the planet they would be enslaved, stoned to death or thrown off a tall building. But no, instead, SJWs champion mass Muslim immigration without question.

    Understand that forced Muslim immigration standards in Europe and in the U.S. are a product of global elitism under the Cloward Piven strategy.  The elites like to use incompatible cultures as a tool to destabilize target societies.  But, leftists are also more than happy to go along with this program.  I believe it is because the left is inherently weak when it comes to direct confrontation, and many progressives secretly enjoy the idea of having their own hitmen (Muslim extremists or Black Lives Matter) on speed dial just in case.

    If any group has shown a willingness to work with the likes of ISIS, it is the left. Set aside the fact that the Department of Defense under Obama admits in its own white papers supporting the rise of the Muslim terrorist network.

    Finally, Cracked and their experts suggest the idea that a second American civil war will not be two-sided, but multi-sided.  This is the only intelligent notion in the entire article and I agree with it wholeheartedly.

    Here is the problem — multiple groups on the left and the right have entirely different concepts on what the final American product should look like.  Some on the left are anarchists, some are communists, some just want the continuation of the democratic process (but still think Trump should be supplanted). On the right, there are hardcore neo-cons and war hawks that want to nuke the Middle East into oblivion, women and children included.  There are libertarians that just want a return to small government and constitutionalism.  There are anarcho-capitalists that seem to want the erasure of government and the constitution entirely but live in a world of theory rather than practicality (I call them egghead libertarians).  There are even Christian factions that long for a Christian-based theocracy.

    Then, there are people like me, who just want to get to the root of the problem and hang the globalists from lampposts (after a speedy trial of course).  We don’t necessarily have a beef with any other group as long as they stay out of our way.  We would like to circumvent the danger of a civil war altogether if possible.

    Unfortunately, I think Cracked and their experts are right on this, and that a second American civil war will be multifaceted.  And, while we are all at each others throats, the elites will be lounging on the riviera sipping mojitos and laughing.  The most dangerous faction (besides the elites) will be the catalyzing faction; the regressive left.  They will be the group that initiates all other hostilities.

    What leftists do not know is that they have always been useful idiots for the global elites, and, they will be thrown in the garbage once the elites are finished with them.  I hope that every leftist could watch the following interview with Soviet KGB defector Yuri Bezmenov, in which he examines the process by which free nations are brought to chaos by the elites through the exploitation of the regressive left in order to establish a totalitarian system.

    I leave you with this thought — civil war is unavoidable. The left is too crazy, and the right has now been given the weapon of government too enticing to overlook. Consider for a moment which “faction” in the world benefits most from this arrangement and then you will understand that the left is ultimately a distraction from the greater enemy. Remove the globalists from the picture, and the left will sort itself out.

  • China Curbs Gold Imports To Slow Capital Flight

    While all eyes were on India (as rumors swirled of an imminent gold import ban), The FT reports that China curbed gold imports in the wake of government attempts to clamp down on capital leaving the country, according to traders and bankers.

    Some banks with licences have recently had difficulty obtaining approval to import gold, they said — a move tied to China’s attempts to stop a weakening renminbi by tightening outflows of dollars, the banks added.

     

    The hit to gold imports comes as China tightens restrictions on overseas deals by state-owned companies in an effort to limit capital outflows that has seen the renminbi fall to its lowest against the dollar in eight years.

    When the headline hit, gold futures legged lower, but are rebounding…

    As The FT notes, quotas for importing gold have been cut during quarterly assessments this year. Banks also have dollar quotas, some of which must be used when buying gold.

    The limits on imports bite as the weakening renminbi raises Chinese investors’ interest in gold. Lower gold prices have also triggered more buying.

     

    The combination of tighter quotas and an uptick in demand caused the premium for gold in China over the international gold price to jump as high as $46 in the past few weeks, according to data from Wind Information. Normal levels are about $2 to $4.

     

    In an effort to ease that premium, Chinese banks have been allowed to import gold under their quotas using the offshore renminbi, one banker said. Although still high, the premium for gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange has since fallen to $26, according to Wind data.

    If the restrictions on imports are sustained that could raise questions about China’s moves to open its gold market to international traders. The world’s largest consumer of the precious metal has moved to have a greater voice over the price of gold.

  • $1 Trillion Money Manager Downplays The OPEC Deal

    Submitted by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

    The market should not be overly enthusiastic over today’s oil price surge on reports that OPEC has managed to reach some kind of a deal to reduce supply, David Hunt, chief executive at asset manager PGIM, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Wednesday.

    Hunt, CEO of the asset management group that manages US$1 trillion in assets, said the oil price surge today is “probably not” sustainable.

    Earlier today, OPEC managed to reach the much-hyped agreement to cut output in a bid to boost oil prices. The ministerial meeting in Vienna is said to have clinched a deal to cut output by 1.2 million barrels per day to 32.5 million barrels per day, but the deal may come with a condition that non-OPEC producers also cut production, by some 600,000 bpd.

    Oil prices are soaring on the OPEC deal news, and as of 10:50 AM (EST), WTI Crude was surging 7.21 percent at US$48.49, and Brent Crude was soaring by 7.65 percent at US$50.94, staying above the US$50 mark for a couple of hours now.

    “For us who are long-term investors, we tend to look at the group of people who are gathering in Vienna and say ‘they’re fighting against history… The cost of producing crude, largely due to fracking technology, has dramatically changed the marginal economics of oil,” Hunt told Bloomberg Television.

    According to Hunt, long-term investors like PGIM see the longer-run market fundamentals and sentiment as “much more important than whether we get a bounce of a couple of dollars on Brent today or not. Fundamentally the economics of oil have changed and we now need to work that through how different industries are pricing, and how commodities are priced on the basis of that”.

    Hunt also cautioned against investors being too optimistic in the long run about equity indexes’ continued rally since Donald Trump was elected U.S. President.

  • Obama Still Can't Process Hillary's Loss; Blames "Fox News In Every Bar And Restaurant"

    President Obama apparently still hasn’t come to terms with Hillary’s stunning loss on November 8th.  When asked about the 2016 election by Rolling Stone magazine in a recent interview, Obama relayed his view that “Fox News in every bar and restaurant in big chunks of the country” was a big part of the reason democrats lost the White House.

    In this election, [they] turned out in huge numbers for Trump. And I think that part of it has to do with our inability, our failure, to reach those voters effectively. Part of it is Fox News in every bar and restaurant in big chunks of the country, but part of it is also Democrats not working at a grassroots level, being in there, showing up, making arguments. That part of the critique of the Democratic Party is accurate. We spend a lot of time focused on international policy and national policy and less time being on the ground. And when we’re on the ground, we do well. This is why I won Iowa.

    Yes, because Fox News didn’t exist in 2008 and 2012 in the MidWest and CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, NYT, Reuters, AP, etc., etc., etc. are all extremely impartial news outlets…not extensions of the democratic party. 

     

    No, it certainly can’t be that the following memo, revealed by WikiLeaks that was sent to pretty much everyone in the mainstream media and intended to “give reporters there first thoughts” and “frame the HRC message and race”, implies any sort of bias in the overwhelming majority of the media outlets in the U.S.  God forbid that reporters be allowed to form their own “first thoughts”…no, first impressions are too important and had to force fed to the press by Hillary’s team.   

    But sure, Obama, Fox News is definitely the problem…

    Hillary

    Oddly, we would note that Fox News was the one major media outlet excluded from Hillary’s invite list…hmmm

  • Philadelphia City Attorney Linked To Anti-Trump Grafitti

    Philadelphia police have launched an investigation into an assistant city attorney in connection with anti-Trump graffiti found on the side of an upscale supermarket in Chestnut Hill on November 25th, according to the Inquirer; meanwhile an angry local Republican Party wants him fired.

    Surveillance footage released overnight, shows two men walking along in Chestnut Hill, around midnight on Friday by the Fresh Market located at 8200 Germantown Avenue. One wears a blue blazer, khakis and a rakishly-tied scarf, and carries a glass of wine. What at first appeared like a calm end to a night out in an upscale part of the city, changed when the second man was seen spray painting a message on the wall of a newly-constructed grocery store: “Fuck Trump.”

    The damage is estimated at between $3,000 and $10,000.

    While the sprayer remains unidentified, the man in the blazer turns out to be Assistant City Solicitor Duncan Lloyd. No charges have been filed and as of Wednesday evening, the city was awaiting more information before taking any administrative action.

    According to Philly.com, First Deputy City Solicitor Craig Straw confirmed Lloyd, who has worked for the law department since 2011, is one of two men in the video. “We do not condone this type of behavior from our employees,” Straw said. “To my knowledge, Mr. Lloyd has already contacted the Philadelphia Police and is cooperating with them. We will decide on a course of action once we obtain more information about the investigation.”

    Lloyd, 32, is a University of Pennsylvania and Temple’s Beasley School of Law graduated, according to his Linkedin page and makes $63,207 a year, representing the city mostly in federal and state discrimination lawsuits. On his Linkedin page he wrote of the job, “As a result of these responsibilities, I hear the craziest stories – ones regularly driven by the unreasonable mores of lust, anger, passion, and envy.”

    This incident is hardly news: The Inquirer reports that since election day, anti-Trump graffiti has been reported throughout the city. In early November, spray-painted swastikas, racist graffiti and references to Donald Trump and Nazi Germany appeared in South Philadelphia. Anti-Trump graffiti has been reported on bus shelters and on the exterior wall of City Hall, where “Not my President,” was spray painted and removed Nov. 12. Mayor Kenney has denounced the destruction of property, which mirrors similar incidents nationwide. However, on no prior occasions was the alleged perpetrator dumb enough to be a public servant calmly drinking wine while on closed-circuit camera.

    * * *

    To Lloyd the graffiti incident may have seemed like a childish prank, but the chair of the Philadelphia Republican Party, Joe DeFelice, is out for blood demanding his immediate firing. In a statement released this afternoon, DeFelice said the following:

    If the image of an upper-middle class city attorney clad in a blazer and sipping wine while vandalizing an upscale grocery store with an anti-Trump message strikes you as perhaps the most bourgeois sight imaginable, that’s because it is. Nothing can better represent the hysterical pearl-clutching of the ‘progressive’ elite in response to this earth-shattering election, when residents of Chestnut Hill and similar neighborhoods across the country discovered – gasp – that other people have a voice too. The assistant city solicitor in question had ostensibly taken the law into his own hands, since a democratic election didn’t yield his preferred outcome.

     

    For somebody with extensive legal training to feel entitled to vandalize a newly opened super-market strikes us at the Philadelphia Republican Party as an astonishing feat of idiocy. Did the extra glass of Shiraz give him some sort of delusional confidence that there are no cameras on Germantown Ave? The taxpayers should be entrusting exactly none of our faith into this man. He should be fired from our city’s law department immediately.”

    No arrests, or terminations, have been made so far.

  • A MeSSaGe To SaNTa TRuMP…

    SANTA TRUMP

  • "Metals Traders On Red Alert" – Chinese Commodity Bubble 2.0 Just Imploded

    Industrial metals commodity prices plunged by the most since March in the last 2 days as China’s exchanges (once again) clamped down on speculation by tightening trading rules. As Bloomberg reports, for the second time this year, trading has exploded on the nation’s exchanges, pushing prices of everything from zinc to coal to multi-year highs and sending authorities scrambling to deflate the bubble before it bursts.

    Metals brokers described panic earlier this month as the frenzy spread to markets in London and New York, prompting wild swings in prices that show no signs of abating.

    “I can recall only two other occasions in my career where there was such panic and devastating price action in copper but this market today is far less transparent,”

     

    While billions of yuan have poured in from herd-like Chinese retail investors who show little regard for market fundamentals, brokers and traders say even more is coming from an expanding army of deep-pocketed hedge funds. They’re chasing better returns in commodities as stocks and real estate fade, often using algorithms and trading late into the night, when markets in London and New York are most active.

     

    “There is no doubt that the price moves and the bigger volumes worldwide are being driven by the Chinese, and by professional speculators and financial players,” said Tiger Shi, managing partner at brokerage BANDS Financial Ltd., which counts several of those funds as clients. “The western hedge funds and institutional investors don’t really know what’s going on. Often they were used to trading macro factors or Fed policy, but now they find they have fewer advantages.”

    And it was never going to end well…

    Zinc Futures have plunged over 10% in the last 2 days (after surging over 27% since the start of November).

     

    Steel Rebar is tumbling…

     

    And Iron Ore futures have collapsed more… twice…

    Think it's the Trump-Trade? Think again. Fundamentally, as Bloomberg highlights, there is massive oversupply. Iron ore port inventories in China are near the highest since September 2014 and are up 19 percent this year, according to Shanghai Steelhome Information Technology Co. Top producer Vale SA reiterated its output guidance of 360 million to 380 million tons for 2017 on Tuesday and expects to produce 400 million to 420 million tons the year after.

    So what is it? What had driven this panic-buying in industrial commodities? Simple – another Chinese speculative bubble…

    Iron ore and steel futures trimmed their second monthly advance as bourses in Dalian and Shanghai moved to deflate a boom driven partly by speculative trading.

     

    The Dalian Commodity Exchange raised margin requirements and the Shanghai Futures Exchange capped some positions. These measures have taken some speculative steam out of the market, according to Justin Smirk, a senior economist at Westpac Banking Corp.

    As the Chinese commodity bubble of March/April is back and trading volumes explode relative to open interest…

    NOTE: SHFE updated their Zinc "control measures" once again tonight, capping new positions at 1500 lots.

     

     

    Thank to hot money flows…

    “Commodities market volatility is liquidity driven, as money from commercial bank wealth management products and private banking accounts flow into the market seeking higher return,”

    And an increase in algos…

    The use of algorithmic trading, in which computers execute multiple orders in milliseconds, is turbo-charging volume and volatility, according to Fu Peng, a portfolio manager at Lianzhan Global Macro Fund Management Co. About a third of activity on Chinese exchanges is executed by automated commands, which generates more volume and greater momentum on global markets, Shi estimates.

     

    “The machine component in the market is now so much bigger as is the onshore retail and fund involvement on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and OTC options.”

    Similar to the last frenzy in April, the government-owned exchanges have stepped in to cool trading by raising fees and margins, or cutting the number of new positions allowed daily. In the latest move, the Shanghai Futures volume and turnover have since come off their highs but prices are still swinging.

    So with the China Commoditty Echo Bubble now bursting, the big question is, where does the hot money flow next? As Socgen shows, Chinese 'gamblers' have chased stocks (and lost), dumped capital (Yuan loss), piled into commodities (in March/April) and lost, rotated into housing (until the government choked that off), and then sent bond yields to record lows…

    As Fu at Lianzhan Global Macro Fund noted:

    “The nation’s supply-side reforms had a big impact on the market balance, and that’s the fundamentals behind the trading,”

     

    But at the same time, we’ve got too much money there. There have been no returns from investment in industries. The stock market is neither dead nor alive. Investment in real estate also got curbed. So all the money is rushing into commodities.”

    But now, Chinese housing is at record highs, Chinese stocks are falling, Chinese bonds are falling, and Chinese commodities are tumbling… the only thing with momentum for the hot money to chase in the currency… and we suspect (by recent liquidity withdrawals) that The PBOC has had enough of that.

    “The massive and unprecedented surge in Chinese trading volume in base metals over the past month — but especially since the election — has put LME metals traders on red alert,” Tai Wong, director of commodity products trading at BMO Capital Markets in New York.

  • Reddit To Ban "Most Toxic" Trump Supporters After CEO Abused With "Personal Message Harassment"

    Just a few days after getting caught editing user comments, the CEO of Reddit, Steve Huffman, is threatening to ban 100’s of the site’s “most toxic users,” most of whom are Trump supporters from the popular r/The_Donald subreddit thread.  Just so we’re clear, Huffman pissed off a bunch of users by edited their comments without their consent, was forced to apologize publicly, got a lot of blowback for his ridiculous behavior and is now banning users who called him out?  According to Yahoo News, that sums it up fairly accurately.

    Social media website Reddit Inc, known for its commitment to free speech, will crack down on online harassment by banning or suspending users who target others, starting with those who have directed abuse at Chief Executive Steve Huffman.

     

    Huffman said in an interview with Reuters that Reddit’s content policy prohibits harassment, but that it had not been adequately enforced.

     

    “Personal message harassment is the most cut and dry,” he said. “Right now we are in an interesting position where my inbox is full of them, it’s easy to start with me.”

     

    As well as combing through Huffman’s inbox, Reddit will monitor user reports, add greater filtering capacity, and take a more proactive role in policing its platform rather than relying on community moderators.

    Of course, this all comes just a couple days after Huffman used his administrative privileges to redirect abuse he was receiving on a thread on r/The_Donald to the community’s moderators – making it look as if it was intended for them. Huffman has subsequently said it was all an innocent “prank,” though the apology he posted last week seemed to indicated it was more akin to a nervous breakdown.

    Huffman offered the following apology admitting that he “messed with the “fuck u/spez” comments” and that “as the CEO, I shouldn’t play such games.”

     

    Reddit

     

    Huffman notes that, in the past, Reddit relied on community moderators to enforce site rules but Trump supporters are apparently just too unruly.

    In the past, Reddit has worked with moderators of communities to try to enforce its rules.

     

    With r/The_Donald in particular, “we haven’t found that to be particularly effective. We might see flashes of success, but things kind of revert,” Huffman said.

     

    Under its new strategy, Reddit will take a more active role in dealing with troublemakers, who Huffman said were an “infinitesimal” portion of Reddit’s 250 million monthly visitors.

    And while he insists the move to ban certain users isn’t political, Huffman admits that the “first wave of bans will likely be skewed to the r/The_Donald community.”

    He stressed that the move was not political.

     

    We don’t want to be censoring political beliefs, but then they do misbehave,” he said. “That’s why we have worked so closely with the r/The_Donald community. We tell them: don’t force us to ban you.

     

    The first wave of bans will likely be skewed to the r/The_Donald community because “that is a catalyst for a lot of this right now. That community is stirred up,” Huffman said.

     

    In a draft of a blog post to be published on Wednesday, Huffman said he had been asked by many Reddit users “to ban r/The_Donald outright, but he had rejected that idea, because “if there is anything about this election that we have learned, it is that there are communities that feel alienated and just want to be heard, and Reddit has always been a place where those voices can be heard.”

    Since Huffman suddenly seems quite concerned with enforcing Reddit’s harassment rules in a fair and non-partisan way, we’re curious whether Reddit also has rules against soliciting advice on how to violate the Federal Records Act and Congressional subpoenas?  If so, we’d suggest he take a look back through Paul Combetta’s history.

    Combetta

  • Obama Student Loan Foregiveness Plan To Cost Taxpayers $137 Billion, GAO Finds

    To our complete shock, the Government Accountability Office has released a report blasting the Education Department’s understanding of basic mathematics and accounting concepts after finding the department drastically underestimated the costs of Obama’s student loan forgiveness programs.  The 100-page report entitled “Federal Student Loans:  Education Needs to Improve Its Income Driven Repayment Plan Budget Estimates” found that taxpayers could be on the hook for $137BN of student loans to be forgiven over the coming years as a result of Obama’s executive actions on “income-driven repayment” (IDR) plans.

    For the fiscal year 2017 budget, the U.S. Department of Education (Education) estimates that all federally issued Direct Loans in Income-Driven Repayment (IDR) plans will have government costs of $74 billion, higher than previous budget estimates. IDR plans are designed to help ease student debt burden by setting loan payments as a percentage of borrower income, extending repayment periods from the standard 10 years to up to 25 years, and forgiving remaining balances at the end of that period. While actual costs cannot be known until borrowers repay their loans, GAO found that current IDR plan budget estimates are more than double what was originally expected for loans made in fiscal years 2009 through 2016 (the only years for which original estimates are available). This growth is largely due to the rising volume of loans in IDR plans.

     

    Education’s approach to estimating IDR plan costs and quality control practices do not ensure reliable budget estimates. Weaknesses in this approach may cause costs to be over- or understated by billions of dollars.

    Student Loans

     

    As the Wall Street Journal points out, the so-called IDR plans set caps on borrowers’ monthly student loan payments at 10% of discretionary income, which is defined as earnings above 150% of the poverty level.  Then, whatever principal balance is left over on the loans at their maturity date is simply forgiven. 

    The report, to be released on Wednesday by the Government Accountability Office, shows the Obama administration’s main strategy for helping student-loan borrowers is proving far more costly than previously thought. The report also presents a scathing review of the Education Department’s accounting methods, which have understated the costs of its various debt-relief plans by tens of billions of dollars.

     

    Senate Budget Committee Chairman Mike Enzi (R., Wyo.) ordered the report last year amid a sharp increase in enrollment in income-driven repayment plans, which the Obama administration has heavily promoted to help borrowers avoid default. The most generous version caps a borrower’s monthly payment at 10% of discretionary income, which is defined as any earnings above 150% of the poverty level.

     

    That formula typically reduces monthly payments of borrowers by hundreds of dollars. Any remaining balance is then forgiven after 10 or 20 years, depending on whether the borrower works in the public or private sector.

     

    Enrollment in the plans has more than tripled in the past three years to 5.3 million borrowers as of June, or 24% of all former students who borrowed directly from the government and are now required to be making payments. They collectively owe $355 billion.

    Congress approved the IDR plans in the 1990s and 2000s, but Obama used executive actions, starting in 2010, to extend the most-generous terms to millions of borrowers.  Ironically, that is precisely when loan volumes under the program started to skyrocket.

    Student Loans

     

    While there are numerous viewpoints on how to address the student loan crisis in America, we kind of like this guy’s idea that borrowers should stop playing video games in their parents’ basements and get a job…it just might be crazy enough to work.

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Today’s News 30th November 2016

  • "Dear President Putin…"

    Submitted by Paul Craig Roberts,

    Vladimir Putin
    President of Russia
    Moscow
    28 November 2016

    Dear President Putin,

    Now that CIA agent Craig Timberg posing as a Washington Post reporter has blown my cover and exposed me as a Russian agent, I was wondering if I might ask you for a Russian passport and a bit of diplomatic cover, perhaps assistant press officer at the Russian embassy in Washington, until I can get out of the country. I saw that you gave a passport to Steven Seagal, so I am hopeful that being a Russian agent is as important as teaching martial arts to Russians.

    I don’t know what the pay scale for Russian agents is, but whatever I have coming to me please deposit in a Russian bank. The Swiss banks are no longer useful as the Swiss government allowed Washington to write its banking laws. Perhaps also you could line me up with a publisher for my memoirs—“My Life As A Putin Stooge.”

    We need to get on with this ASAP as the Washington Post has the FBI on my tail. They will be very angry at me for deceiving them all those years when I held top secret and higher security clearances while I was a Russian agent. Any day now the Washington Post might discover that my fellow KGB agent Ronald Reagan and I cut taxes on the rich in order to make capitalism so oppressive that the American people would rise up and overthrow it. Boy did we fool the left-wing!

    I regret that the Washington Post got wise to me being a Russian agent, but it wasn’t my fault. I think the leak came from one of those Atlanticist Integrationists you are stuck with in your government. Better check up on it as 200 of the Russian financed websites have already been exposed.

    Better have someone bring me the passport and diplomatic appointment. I would be nabbed by TSA if I fly to Washington to collect the documents. A diplomatic appointment is better than asylum, because Washington, like the old Soviet Union, doesn’t recognize political asylum. Just ask Julian Assange.

    Don’t let the Atlanticist Integrationists convince you that my exposure as a Russian agent is just a CIA ruse to plant an agent on you. My criticism of Washington’s policy of raising tensions between nuclear powers and support of your policy of reducing tensions is not spy cover. I really do prefer that the world not be blown up in thermo-nuclear war. This is a suspect view in the US, but I hope it is an acceptable one in Russia.

    Looking forward to that passport.

    Paul Craig Roberts

  • Steve Mnuchin Selected by Trump for Treasury Secretary, a Look at Previous Secretaries and Affiliations

    Trump selected Steve Mnuchin to be the next Treasury Secretary. Steve is a Goldman man. What else is new? Let’s have a look at the recent men who’ve filled this role in government and their affiliations.

    Steve Mnuchin: Parter at Goldman Sachs, Yale, Dad worked for Goldman for three decades, brief gig at Soros hedge fund, Hollywood producer.
    Jack Lew: COO of Citi prop trading unit that correctly bet on housing collapse in 2008, Harvard, Council on Foreign Relations.
    Hank Paulson: Former CEO of Goldman Sachs, Dartmouth, worked at Pentagon and in Nixon administration.
    John Snow: Former CEO of CSX, Chairman Cerberus Capital Management, served under several administrations and shilled on a sundry of boards.
    Paul O’Neil: Former CEO of Alcoa, Member of Carnegie Mellon University’s dean’s advisory council.
    Larry Summers: Former President of Harvard, managing partner at DE Shaw, Chief Economist at the World Bank.
    Robert Rubin: 26 Years at Goldman Sachs, London School of Economics, Yale, Co-Chair of the Council on Foreign Relations, Chair of Citi
    Lloyd Bentsen: University of Texas, WW2 Vet, promoted to Lt. Col and discharged in 1947, wanted to Nuke N. Korea, served on board of Lockheed Martin, helped convince republicans to pass NAFTA while serving under Clinton.

    Nice group of guys.

    Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

  • China Liquidity Crisis Deepens, Spreads Across Asia

    Having exposed the deepening liquidity crisis in China previously, tonight's action across AsiaPac money-markets suggests – despite US equity record highs – all is very much not well below the surface of the global financial system. Short-term China repo rates have exploded to 20-month highs, Hong Kong Dollar money-market rates have jumped to the highest since May 2009, and Yen basis swaps are showing the most extreme demand for dollars since Lehman

    China liquidty conditions have gone from bad to worse with 14-day repo spiking to 6.00% – the highest in 20 months…

    To be clear this means a Chinese bank was willing to pay 6% to ensure liquidty for the next 2 weeks (compared to 2.5% yesterday!)

    Also notable is the upward pressure this has put in Offshore Yuan versus the dollar…

     

    Pushing Hong Kong Dollar HIBOR up to its highest since May 2009…

     

    It appears that Japan is suffering too as USD-JPY basis swaps have crashed to record lows – the most desperate demand for USDollar liquidity since Lehman…

     

    Finally, it's not just AsiaPac as our index of global dollar liquidity (BIS' new 'fear' index) is in grave trouble, trumbling to 4-month lows…

     

     

    As we noted previously, quoted by Bloomberg, Wu Sijie, bond trader at China Merchants Bank said "tightening interbank liquidity and the expectation of even higher short-term borrowing costs are driving up swap costs and affecting sentiment on the cash bond market."

    Meanwhile, signalling no change at all in its posture, overnight the PBOC drained funds in open-market operations for the fourth consecutive day, bringing the total withdrawal to 130 billion yuan.

    Why is all of the above relevant? Because while so far the global capital markets have been immune to the substantial tightening in financial conditions resulting from the sharp rise in the US Dollar and US interest rates, a similar tightening in China – which is now clearly taking place – will be far more difficult for global risk assets to ignore.

  • All Aboard! Trump's Express Train To The Future

    Authored by Bonner & Partners' Bill Bonner, annotated by Acting-Man's Pater Tenebrarum,

    Free Money!

    Last week, the Dow punched up above 19,000 – a new all-time record. And on Monday, the Dow, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the small-cap Russell 2000 each hit new all-time highs. The last time that happened was on the last day of December 1999.

     

    1-djia-daily-ann

    Ironically, two events that were almost universally expected to trigger large stock market declines were followed by quite rapid and strong gains. Would the market have fallen if Hillary Clinton had won the presidential election? That would have confounded expectations as well. Also, the S&P 500 declined for nine days in a row (even if not by much) just before the election – at the time Clinton was still widely expected to win. it remains to be seen whether and for how long the recent discounting of Nirvana will last – click to enlarge.

    Just a few months later, the dot-com bubble burst and the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 80% of its value. And the U.S. stock market, overall, lost about 50%. But investors are bullish. They believe President-elect Trump will be good for stocks.

    He is supposed to arrive in Washington for his inauguration and march directly over to the Capitol to demand a tax cut. This will return over $6 trillion to the private sector over the next 10 years… not to mention a proposed $1 trillion splurge on “infrastructure.”

    As Trump’s chief adviser (and former Goldman alum), Stephen Bannon, explained to Michael Wolff of The Hollywood Reporter last week:

    “Like [Andrew] Jackson’s populism, we’re going to build an entirely new political movement,” he says. “It’s everything related to jobs. The conservatives are going to go crazy. I’m the guy pushing a trillion-dollar infrastructure plan. With negative interest rates throughout the world, it’s the greatest opportunity to rebuild everything. Shipyards, iron works, get them all jacked up. We’re just going to throw it up against the wall and see if it sticks.”

    Whew!

    Everybody’s talking about the feds’ opportunity to “invest” free money.   It makes us nervous; we know how hard it is to get a good return on investment – especially when you don’t know what you’re doing.

    The government pays just over 2% on 10-year loans. If inflation over the next decade is anywhere near its long-term average, the real cost of funds is roughly zero.  The money, say the Big Spenders in Washington, will be free.

     

    biggovernment

    And henceforth it will be getting fed for free!

     

    All Aboard!

    In the pages of the Financial Times is another voice for investing money that doesn’t exist. Here’s Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer speaking to the Council on Foreign Relations think tank:

    “Macroeconomic policy does not have to be confined to monetary policy,” said Mr. Fischer…

     

    “Certain fiscal policies, particularly those that increase productivity, can increase the potential of the economy,” he said.

    This is a train that’s going to sell out fast. Everyone is going to want to board. Free money. Jobs. Inflation. Infrastructure. What’s not to like? Who will not want to be a passenger on this express train to Fantasyland?

    Already on board, near the head of the train, is our friend Richard Duncan at Macro Watch. Richard, a specialist in credit analysis who has worked with the World Bank, shares our view: The world economy is a giant bubble waiting to pop.

    But his prescription is different. We would happily get out a pin and give the bubble a prick. Not that we like to see innocent people suffer. But we hate to see guilty people not suffer.

    Richard, on the other hand, is a kind-hearted soul, an optimist with a warm and uplifting view of human nature. He can’t bear thinking about the widows and orphans stuck in “another Great Depression,” which he believes would result if the credit bubble bursts.

    All it would take is a big enough increase in interest rates. With so much debt in the world, he says, higher rates would be catastrophic. How to avoid it? Richard:

    “Very large-scale government investment in the industries and technologies of the future will lift America’s poor out of poverty. It will save the middle class. And it will make the most prosperous segments of our society wealthy – and healthy – beyond their wildest dreams.”

    In an open video-letter to Donald Trump, he proposes that the feds should identify 10,000 of America’s “most promising entrepreneurs.” They should all have good ideas for the future – biotech, nanotech, green tech, whatever – but it should have a “tech” at the end. Then the feds should invest in their businesses, forming public-private partnerships.

     

    big-govt

    Allocation of scarce resources by government bureaucrats – what could possibly go wrong?

     

    Hell Train

    Our cynical heart stops for a second. All that money up for grabs. All those cost-plus contracts! Architects’ phones must be ringing already; insiders are planning new wings for their Aspen vacation pads. These are government “investments” – no need to ever satisfy a customer or ever show a profit.

    And we’re talking 10 times more money than the $100 billion in Corn Belt giveaways… or the penny-candy subsidies to sugar tycoons, the Fanjul brothers (who, taking no chances, put on Miami campaign fundraisers for both Clinton and Trump). But Richard is already in the observation car, enjoying the sun on his face, dreaming.

    Imagine what that would do,” he suggests, adding helpfully, “It would really Make America Great Again.

    Our imagination is not up to the challenge. We close our eyes. We scrunch up our face. We just can’t do it. We can’t imagine a group of hacks, has-beens, and bureaucratic chair warmers capable of identifying the “industries of the future.”

     

    miracle_cartoon

    Richard Duncan probably figures that they will be helped by experts… and miracles will occur as well! It’s almost fool-proof…

     

    No one else has been able to foresee the future. How could they? Venture capitalists, even when their own money is at stake, are notoriously bad at backing successful futuristic enterprises. The feds, “investing” other people’s money, are bound to bet on the wrong ones.

    But wait –  our imagination has finally rebooted. And what’s this?  No train to the future? What we see is a runaway locomotive. Incompetence at the throttle, flimflam stoking the engine, and impossible, pie-in-the-sky hocus-pocus putting on a show for the passengers.

    A hellish train, in other words – loaded with trillions of dollars of looted resources – misallocated, stolen, and frittered away.

     

    train-to-hell

    The express train to hell. It is possible that tickets for the train to the future were sold out. Better luck next time.

  • Horseman Capital Asks "Is China Running Out Of Money"

    At the start of 2016, many financial pundits mocked Kyle Bass and a handful of other China skeptics for predicting that China’s economic difficulties, and accelerating capital outflows, would translate into a continued devaluation for the Yuan. Less than a year later, with the Yuan plunging to all time lows, just shy of USDCNH 7.00, they were right.

    And, as Horseman Capital’s Russell Clark writes in his latest Market Views note, in which he asks if “China is running out of money”, adding that “if Chinese foreign reserves continue to fall and the PBOC wants to maintain control of the exchange rate, they will need to face some difficult choices,” the one most difficult choice facing Beijing may be the one which assures far more weakness for the Yuan in the near future: a devaluation.

    Here are Clarke’s thoughts.

    IS CHINA RUNNING OUT OF MONEY?

    Since the global financial crisis, China has had a very strong currency, even with the recent devaluation of the Chinese Yuan.

    China has a managed exchange rate. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has had to step in to the exchange market to buy any USD coming into China. To buy the USD coming into China, the PBOC has had to create CNY for this purpose. Typically, to soak up these new CNY, the PBOC has issued CNY bonds, as well as having very high reserve requirements on the banks to control the supply of CNY.

    The PBOC is like any other bank, and it needs to match assets with liabilities. On the asset side, by far its biggest assets are foreign reserves. On the liability side are domestic deposits. For many years, foreign reserves were much larger than deposits, but now the gap is shrinking rapidly as foreign currency assets fall.

    If Chinese foreign reserves continue to fall and the PBOC wants to maintain control of the exchange rate, they will need to face some difficult choices. First of all, it could raise interest rates to try and make the Yuan more attractive and reduce outflows. This however would be negative for growth, a priority of the Chinese Communist Party. The other option is to reduce the holdings of deposits at the PBOC. The large holdings of deposits at PBOC is driven by the very high reserve requirements of the Chinese banking system, and previous cuts in the reserve requirements have reduced deposits at least temporarily.

    This leaves the PBOC with a dilemma. Raising rates will restrict growth but defend the currency, while cutting rates or reserve rates for banks will encourage more currency weakness. One way to think about how high interest rates need to rise to stop a currency from falling is to look at how weak a currency has been over the last twelve months. You then compare this to the difference in 10 year bond rates, and the movement in the exchange rate over the last 12 months to get an idea of the interest rates increase needed to attract US dollars. The idea is that if a currency has been weak, but interest rates are relatively high, then you are being adequately compensated. Conversely, if the currency has been weak, and the interest rates are relatively low, then rates will need to rise. Currently, it suggests Chinese 10 year rates need to be 6.5% higher, to halt currency weakness.

    Given the large increase in rates needed to slow Chinese Yuan devaluation, devaluation must start to look like the more likely move. South Korea faced a very similar situation in 1997. In the mid-90s, Korean foreign reserves began to fall, like they are in China today. We have added Japanese foreign reserves to show that the fall in reserves was a Korean specific issue.

    Like the Chinese Yuan, the Korean Won was a managed exchange rate that began to depreciate slowly then quickly.

    Below we produce the same graphs, but replace Korea with China.

    Given the huge increase in debt in China in recent years, such a rate increase seems very unlikely to me. Investors should be prepared for bigger falls in the Chinese Yuan.

  • Why Are So Many Among The Elite Building Luxury Bunkers In Preparation For An Imminent "Apocalypse"?

    Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

    Do they know something that the rest of us do not?  There are tens of millions of ordinary Americans that are feeling really good about the future now that Donald Trump has won the election, but meanwhile the elite are feverishly constructing luxury bunkers at a pace unlike anything we have ever seen before.  So why are so many among the elite preparing for an imminent “apocalypse” when tens of millions of other Americans are anticipating a new era of peace and prosperity?  Are they smarter than most of the rest of us, or are they simply being paranoid?

    Without a doubt, something is going on among the elite.  Earlier today, WND published an article that discussed the fact that wealthy people “are quietly moving away from major cities” all over the globe because of concerns about security…

    Widespread media reports as well as independent investigations from groups such as New World Wealth suggest wealthy people around the globe are quietly moving away from major cities because of fears of social instability. Increasing crime, terrorism and rising racial tensions have all been identified as factors driving the exodus. Even the Daily Beast reported the introduction of large numbers of Muslim refugees into Europe has made once prosperous areas fraught with danger, in the opinion of some security experts.

    And just a few weeks ago a Hollywood Reporter article entitled “Panic, Anxiety Spark Rush to Build Luxury Bunkers for L.A.’s Superrich” talked about how “Oscar winners, sports stars and Bill Gates are building lavish bunkers” because of their anxiety about what is coming next.  The following is a short excerpt from that article…

    Given the increased frequency of terrorist bombings and mass shootings and an under-lying sense of havoc fed by divisive election politics, it’s no surprise that home security is going over the top and hitting luxurious new heights. Or, rather, new lows, as the average depth of a new breed of safe haven that occupies thousands of square feet is 10 feet under or more. Those who can afford to pull out all the stops for so-called self-preservation are doing so — in a fashion that goes way beyond the submerged corrugated metal units adopted by reality show “preppers” — to prepare for anything from nuclear bombings to drastic climate-change events. Gary Lynch, GM at Rising S Bunkers, a Texas-based company that specializes in underground bunkers and services scores of Los Angeles residences, says that sales at the most upscale end of the market — mainly to actors, pro athletes and politicians (who require signed NDAs) — have increased 700 percent this year compared with 2015, and overall sales have risen 150 percent. “Any time there is a turbulent political landscape, we see a spike in our sales. Given this election is as turbulent as it is, we are gearing up for an even bigger spike,” says marketing director Brad Roberson of sales of bunkers that start at $39,000 and can run $8.35 million or more (FYI, a 12-stall horse shelter is $98,500).

    This is all very odd, because among the general population interest in “prepping” has hit a multi-year low.  In fact, sales of emergency food and supplies are way down at the moment across the entire industry.

    So once again the question must be asked – do the elite know something that the rest of us do not?

    If they don’t, why are they spending so much time, effort and money on such extraordinary preparations?

    For instance, down in Texas one group of investors is constructing “a $300 million luxury community replete with underground homes”

    An investor group is planning for a doomsday scenario by building a $300 million luxury community replete with underground homes. There will also be air-lock blast doors designed for people worried about a dirty bomb or other disaster and off-grid energy and water production.

     

    The development, called Trident Lakes, is northeast of Dallas.

     

    Residents will enjoy an equestrian center, 18-hole golf course, polo fields, zip lines and gun ranges. Retail shops, restaurants and a row of helipads are also in the works. For those looking to “get away,” they’ll also be able to enjoy three white sand beaches and a neighborhood spa.

    Most of us could hardly even imagine such luxury, and this is yet another example of the growing gap between the ultra-wealthy and the rest of us in this country.

    If you do happen to be one of the ultra-wealthy, perhaps you may be interested in purchasing one of the extremely expensive U-shaped “Earthships” that one company has been constructing for the elite…

    Billionaires are buying up “indestructible” alien boltholes to seek sanctuary in during alien Armageddon or more-likely nuclear war and disaster.

     

    The US company creating the $1.5million “Earthship” eco-structures says humans “must evolve” and insists they “will soon be a necessity” for our species “to survive on this planet.”

     

    The bizarre U-shaped hideaways, which can reportedly survive in any climate, can be deployed to any part of the world and are self-sufficient enough to survive in isolation – during a killer virus outbreak or a radiation catastrophe.

    I have to admit that I felt a twinge of jealousy when I first learned about these “Earthships”.  They are completely self-sufficient, they are environmentally-friendly, and they sound like they are quite comfortable. 

    The following is what one reporter discovered when she visited a community of these “Earthships”…

    In addition to the cord-cutting power and self-sustaining water supply, each abode contains its own greenhouse. I could forage for figs, bananas, pineapple, broccoli, rosemary and chives in my fluffy socks. Or if the zombies weren’t looking, I could dash over to my neighbor’s place for supper. The Phoenix, a three-bedroom that sleeps six, dedicates one-third of its space to food production. Its tropical jungle supports parakeets and cockatiels (not for consumption) and a garden bursting with fruits and vegetables, including grapes, artichokes, lemons, melons, kale, squash, hot peppers and mushrooms that cling to a log.

     

    Chickens cluck around the back yard, which features a sunken den with a grill for coop-to-kebob meals. An indoor fishpond once contained a robust stock of tilapia before a group of guests threw a fish fry. Now, the littlest survivors swim laps with koi. For the dairy course, the staff is considering resident goats.

    It sounds wonderful.

    But once again, why go to all of this effort if a new era of peace and prosperity for humanity is right around the corner?

    I really like what Carl Gallups had to say about this.  Carl is the author of Be Thou Prepared, and this is what he told WND about the preparations that the elite are making…

    “I think that the rich and elite are becoming increasingly aware of the dangerous and potentially unstable world in which we now reside,” he warned. “Massive instances of civil unrest, even in America, are becoming a very real possibility. Internal terror attacks, swelling illegal alien populations, an influx of Islamic refugees, increasing racial discord, ambushing police officers, the rule of law continually being trampled by the political elite and an almost complete collapse of trust in the mainstream media – all of this has led to widespread cynicism and distrust among the population as a whole.”

     

    Gallups noted “the rich usually have deeper connections to reliable information and prediction sources, and most of them have the means to take immediate action.”

    I believe that Carl Gallups is right on the money.

    Normally I am extremely hard on the elite, but in this case I believe that they are showing much more wisdom than the general population.

    So many people are crying “peace and safety” right now, and yet we are right in the middle of what I have labeled “the danger zone“.

    Our world is becoming more unstable with each passing day, but there is so much apathy among the American people at the moment.

    I just don’t understand it.

    The self-destructive behavior that we are engaging in as a nation is a recipe for national suicide, and the warning signs are all around us, but because disaster has not struck yet most people seem to believe that the warnings that they have been hearing are not true.

    Meanwhile, the elite are preparing extremely hard for an imminent “apocalypse”, and I have a feeling that they are going to end up looking like the smart ones once it is all said and done.

  • Aussie Housing Market Collapses: Building Approvals Crash 25%

    Following September's 9.3% MoM plunge in Aussie home approvals, hopes were high that October would see a bounce (expectations were for a 2% gain) as central bankers jawboned confidence higher. However, it didn't… Building approvals collapsed 12.6% MoM and a shocking 24.9% year-over-year decline is equal to the worst drop since Lehman. Ironically, just this month Aussie Treasurer eased restrictions on foreign buyers (otherwise known as bag holders it would seem).

    It's been weak year anyway but this is an utter disaster as the Aussie housing bubble finally pops… (on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis the year-over-year drop is 28% – the biggest since Nov 2008)

    This is the lowest level of building approvals per capita in 2 years as it seems China's credit impulse has faded entirely.

    The cracks have been showing with default rates on the rise (as AFR reports)

    Mirvac said it experienced a rise in the default rate for the settlement of off-the-plan residential sales, above its historic average of 1 per cent.

    On top of defaults, the Australian apartment markets – which boomed in the last four years – are facing other fresh risks…

    On Friday, HSBC said an oversupply of apartments in Melbourne and Brisbane could send unit prices down by as much as 6 per cent in 2017.

     

    The apartment building boom, an ongoing concern for the Reserve Bank of Australia, especially in inner city Melbourne is likely to "start showing through" in price drops of between 2 per cent and 6 per cent in that city next year, HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham said in a note.

     

    It's a similar story in Brisbane where apartment prices are forecast to fall by as much as 4 per cent.

     

    "A national apartment building boom, which has been part of the rebalancing act, is likely to deliver some oversupply in the Melbourne and Brisbane apartment markets, which is expected to see apartment price falls in these markets," Mr Bloxham said.

    "A modest shakeout in the inner-city apartment markets in Brisbane and Melbourne, as we are forecasting, is not expected to have a broad-based impact on the overall housing market or economy."

    Which perhaps explains why Aussie Treasurer Scott Morrison said the government will make changes to the foreign investment framework to allow foreign buyers to buy an off-the-plan dwelling that another foreign buyer has failed to settle as a new dwelling.

    The federal government has announced it will make it easier for foreigners to buy new apartments amid concerns of a looming glut that will drive down prices.

     

    Previously, on-sale of a purchased off the plan apartment was regarded as a second hand sale, which is not open to foreign buyers. Foreign buyers can only buy new dwellings.

     

    The move effectively opens up the pool of buyers who can soak a potential flood of apartments hitting the residential markets due to failed settlements.

    Hoping for some of the capital taking flight from China to rush down, we are sure.

    By way of reminder, here is David Llewellyn-Smith via Acting-Man.com, to explain why the Australian property bubble is on a scale like no other…

    Yesterday Citi produced a new index which pinned the Australian property bubble at 16 year highs:

    Bubble trouble. Whether we label them bubbles, the Australian economy has experienced a series of developments that potentially could have the economy lurching from boom to bust and back. In recent years these have included:

    •  the record run up in commodity prices and subsequent correction;
    •  the associated boom in mining investment and current reversal;
    •  record low bond yields;
    •  the boom in housing construction, specifically apartments, that was spurred by the low interest rates.

     

    Housing indicators in the bubble meter are at record highs but interest rates remain at record lows. Typically monetary policy is well into tightening mode at this stage in the housing cycle. A destabilizing housing burst (both in activity and prices) is a clear risk, particularly the longer the upswing runs.

     

    r3-1

    Click to enlarge.

     

     

    The size of the Australian property bubble is old news. It’s extreme in valuation terms:

    dsfg

    Click to enlarge.

     

    zdfb

    Click to enlarge.

     

    Underpinned by world-beating household debt:

    zseg

    Click to enlarge.

     

    And nose-bleed levels of foreign borrowing:

    wry

    Click to enlarge.

     

    What is less well understood is how such a large and sustained bubble has distorted the Australian political economy.  The bubble has been running for twenty years (which some argue proves it is no such thing) and every time it has been threatened it was saved by luck or a bailout which sold off a little more of Australia’s liberal democracy.

    In 2003, the bubble first threatened to burst as the Reserve Bank raised interest rates. But the bubble was rescued by the combined forces of demand side fiscal stimulus for first home buyers in the form of large cash grants, and the arrival the Chinese commodity boom that flooded the economy with people and income. The government of the day learned its lesson and economic reform has been dead ever since!

    In 2008, the bubble was jeopardised again when the pipeline of offshore debt froze solid and major Australian banks were rendered insolvent given they could not roll over their enormous foreign debts. The government of the day rode to their rescue with guarantees to all offshore funding, directly bought mortgage backed securities (which it still holds), unleashed the largest proportional fiscal stimulus in the world, doubled the first home buyer grants, opened the spigots on foreign investor buying, and other measures. Almost all of it violated existing financial sector architecture and governance and virtually none of it has been wound back. No housing market in the world enjoyed such wholesale and limitless support.

    In 2011, the bubble again faltered when the China commodity boom returned and raised interest rates. But, when threatened, the bubble was bailed out, this time by a central bank that desperately cut interest rates to all-time lows because it had over-estimated the durability of the commodities boom, and an influx of Chinese capital that was allowed to price-out local buyers with barely a word of protest from regulatory authorities.

    While those three saves of the bubble have been widely admired as solid Keynesian policy-making, and have allowed Australia to claim a “miracle” economic expansion of 25 years, they have also transformed its economy and political economy.

    The Australian economy is now structurally uncompetitive as capital inflows persistently keep its currency too high, usually chasing land prices that ensure input costs are amazingly inflated as well. Unsurprisingly, Australian manufacturing’s share of outlook has collapsed to 5.8% of GDP (even before the exit of car manufacturing scheduled for the next 12 months) half that of the supposedly “hollowed out” US and UK economies, and on a par with the financial haven of Luxembourg. Wider tradables sectors have been hit hard as well and Australian exports are now a lousy 20% of GDP despite the largest mining boom in history.

    The other major economic casualty has been multi-factor productivity. It has been virtually zero for fifteen years as capital was consistently and massively mis-allocated into unproductive assets. To grow at all today, the nation now runs chronic twin deficits with the current account at -4% and Budget deficit of -3% of GDP.

    But the damage is in some ways even worse in the political economy. How have Australian authorities responded to this growing crisis? By egging it on.

    Not only are they running unsustainable deficits into looming sovereign downgrades, they have sustained historically very high rates of immigration to attempt to back-fill and support property prices. These levels have been so aggressive in the major eastern cities, which are now projecting a near doubling of their populations within 40 years (from four-plus to eight million), that elections are now routinely won and lost on issues of choked infrastructure, and a vehemently anti-immigration movement is afoot in the polity. Younger generations are also boiling over with anger at being locked out of housing markets. A full half of first home buyers rely upon parents for equity and their numbers have collapsed to just 12% of total sales.

    Five prime ministers in six years have come and gone as standards of living fall in part owing to massive immigration inappropriate to economic circumstances and other property-friendly policy. The most recent national election boiled down to a virtual referendum on real estate taxation subsidies. The victor, the conservative Coalition party, betrayed every market principle its possesses by mounting an extreme fear campaign against the Labor party’s proposal to remove negative gearing. This tax policy allows more than one million Australians to engage in a negative carry into property in the hope of capital gains. In a nation of just 24 million, 1.3 million Australians lose an average of $9k per annum on this strategy thanks to the tax break.

    The campaign against tax reform was led by former head of Goldman Sachs Australia, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, who is a large Australian property-holder, and Treasurer Scott Morrison, who is the former head of research at the Property Council of Australia, the nation’s leading realty lobby. Australia’s 225 politicians hold a combined property portfolio worth over $300m.

    The property corruption has even undermined the nation’s strategic outlook. The large wave of Chinese immigrants and investors have been accompanied by a hard-edged soft power drive from Beijing that is sorely undermining Australia’s commitment to its traditional US alliance partner. Chinese bribery scandals have erupted in the parliament, usually from property-based sources, and have clearly perverted policy-making. So much so, that Australia’s defence and espionage agencies are in a rising panic that Australia is literally auctioning its strategic outlook to Chinese property speculators.

    How could all of this happen without the media holding it to account? As the economy gets ever more reliant upon its great foreign-funded housing ponzi scheme, and the political economy wraps ever more tightly around it, Australian media has been engulfed as well. Aussie media is a duopoly divided between a conservative Murdoch press and liberal Fairfax press. But both are largely loss-making old media empires whose only major growth profit centres are the nation’s two largest real estate portals, realestate.com.au and Domain. Thus neither reports real estate with any objective other than the further inflation of prices. Indeed newspaper (print and online) operations are nothing more than loss-leaders for over-excited real estate eyeballs. In the event that the Australian bubble were to pop then Australians will certainly be the last to know and the propaganda is so thick that they may never find out until they actually try to sell!

    Before the year 2000, the Australian economy was a vibrant mix of world-leading productivity growth, liberalised tradable sectors balanced between commodities, services and manufacturing, solid household wealth, a reasonable external position, a clean public balance sheet and reliable institutions.

    Today, it is a wildly imbalanced propertocracy with enormous offshore debts, a polity soaked by a Goebbels-like property propaganda machine, and a government run by realty carpet-baggers willing to sell their children to Chinese communists so long long as they pick up a three bedroom apartment along with little Johnny.

    In a world replete with bubbles, rarely has one been quite so complete!

  • Trump Reaches Deal To Keep 1,000 Carrier Jobs In The U.S.

    Nine months ago the video of a plant-full of American workers getting the news that they were 'fired' due to Carrier International moving its air-conditioning plant from Indiana to Mexico went viral and became a meme for Trump's "America First" plans. Today, according to CNBC's David Faber, the Trump team and United Technologies have reached an agreement on keeping close to 1,000 factory jobs at the Carrier plant in Indiana.

    As a reminder, this is what happened in February when United Technologies decided to reinforce both of these trends all at once, when the company announced it would be eliminating 1,400 jobs at a Carrier plant in Indianapolis in favor of hiring some new "foreign-born" employees – only these "foreign-born" workers will be hired in Mexico.

    "Two Indiana plants that make products for the heating, ventilating and air conditioning industry are shifting their manufacturing operations to Mexico, which will cost about 2,100 workers their jobs," The Indianapolis Star reports.

     

    "Carrier is shuttering its manufacturing facility on Indianapolis' west side, eliminating about 1,400 jobs during the next three years [and] United Technologies Electronic Controls said that it will move its Huntington manufacturing operations to a new plant in Mexico, costing the northeastern Indiana city 700 jobs by 2018."

    Watch below as 1,000 soon-to-be Donald Trump voters react to the announcement:

    Trump frequently railed against the move and pledged to force Carrier to keep its jobs in the U.S. while on the campaign trail.

    "Here's what's going to happen," Trump told a crowd in Indianapolis in April. "I'll get a call from the head of Carrier and he'll say, 'Mr. President, we've decided to stay in the United States. That's what's going to happen — 100 percent."

    And now, as CNBC's David Faber reports, Trump appears to have been right.

    More from the NYT:

    On Thursday, Mr. Trump and Mike Pence, Indiana’s governor and the vice-president elect, plan to appear at Carrier’s Indianapolis plant to announce they’ve struck a deal with the company to keep a majority of the jobs in the state, according to officials with the transition team as well as Carrier.

     

    Mr. Trump will be hard-pressed to alter the economic forces that have hammered the Rust Belt for decades, but forcing Carrier and its parent company, United Technologies, to reverse course is a powerful tactical strike that will rally his base even before he takes office.

     

    In exchange for keeping the factory running in Indianapolis, Mr. Trump and Mr. Pence are expected to reiterate their campaign pledges to be friendlier to business by easing regulations and overhauling the corporate tax code. In addition, Mr. Trump is expected to tone down his rhetoric threatening 35 percent tariffs on companies like Carrier that shift production south of the border.

    On its behalf, Carrier announced on Twitter shortly after the announcement that it was "pleased to have reached a deal with President-elect Trump & VP-elect Pence to keep close to 1,000 jobs in Indy." We expect more companies to follow in these anti-offshoring footsteps.

    We expect more details of the deal tomorrow but as The NY Times reports, roughly 10 percent of United Technologies’ $56 billion in revenues comes from the federal government, with the Pentagon its single largest customer. Its Pratt & Whitney division, for example, supplies the engines for the Air Force’s most advanced fighters and host of other planes. So perhaps some quid pro quo.

    On the heels of the reported 'deal' with Ford, it seem president-elect Trump is starting to make good on some promises (but we can't help but wonder why President Obama did not do these things?)

  • Trump, Romney Spotted Having Dinner Inside Trump Hotel Amid Cabinet Speculation

    With Donald Trump set to make his official announcement of Steven Mnuchin’s appointment to the Treasury Secretary post tomorrow at 6:30am, in the process placing yet another former Goldman banker in one of the most important US government positions, a move which has already led to accusations of selling out by members of his core support base, is Trump preparing to serve up another major cabinet surprise?

    As was reported earlier by ABC, Donald Trump and Mitt Romney would be having dinner this evening amid ongoing “cabinet speculation” that Romney is one of the leading contenders for the Secretary of State position.

    While we don’t know what the two have said to each other, and it is still unknown if Trump has or will offer Romney – a person many define as the embodiment of the “swamp” – the top US diplomat position, we do know where the two met – the Jean George restaurant located at the Trump International Hotel & Tower New York next to both CNN and Central Park – and we also have an almost intimate dinner-side coverage of how the dinner between the two, who were joined by RNC Chairman Reince Priebus, progressed courtesy of the omnipresent Twitter.

    And this is why the media has a nervous breakdown any time Trump forgets to inform it that he is leaving for dinner.

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Today’s News 29th November 2016

  • Speculation Soars As Mike Pence Says "There Will Be Very Important Announcements Tomorrow"

    With the Trump cabinet filling up, but a number of key positions still to be announced, vice-president-elect Mike Pence told Fox News tonight that "there will be very important announcements tomorrow."

     

     

    So who will it be?

    POSTS ALREADY FILLED

    WHITE HOUSE CHIEF OF STAFF

    * Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus

    CHIEF WHITE HOUSE STRATEGIST AND SENIOR COUNSELOR

    * Steve Bannon, former head of the conservative website Breitbart News

    ATTORNEY GENERAL

    * Jeff Sessions, Republican U.S. senator from Alabama and senior member of the Senate Judiciary Committee (subject to Senate confirmation)

    CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY DIRECTOR

    * Republican U.S. Representative Mike Pompeo from Kansas (subject to Senate confirmation)

    NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER

    * Michael Flynn, retired Army lieutenant general and former director of the Defense Intelligence Agency

    UNITED NATIONS AMBASSADOR

    * Nikki Haley, Republican South Carolina governor (subject to Senate confirmation)

    EDUCATION SECRETARY

    * Betsy DeVos, Republican donor and former chair of the Michigan Republican Party

    HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES SECRETARY

    * Tom Price, Republican U.S. representative from Georgia, orthopedic surgeon

    *  *  *

    CONTENDERS

    Below are people mentioned as contenders for senior roles as the Republican president-elect works to form his administration before taking office on Jan. 20, according to Reuters sources and media reports.

    TREASURY SECRETARY

    * Steven Mnuchin, former Goldman Sachs Group Inc executive and Trump's campaign finance chairman

    * Jeb Hensarling, Republican U.S. representative from Texas and chairman of the House Financial Services Committee

    * Tom Barrack, founder and chairman of Colony Capital Inc

    * John Allison, former chief executive officer of BB&T Corp

    * David McCormick, president of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates LP

    SECRETARY OF STATE

    * Mitt Romney, 2012 Republican presidential nominee and former Massachusetts governor

    * Rudy Giuliani, former Republican mayor of New York City

    * John Bolton, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations under Republican President George W. Bush

    * Bob Corker, Republican U.S. senator from Tennessee and chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee

    * Zalmay Khalilzad, former U.S. ambassador to Iraq

    DEFENSE SECRETARY

    * James Mattis, retired Marine general

    * David Petraeus, former CIA director and retired Army general

    * Tom Cotton, Republican U.S. senator from Arkansas

    * Jon Kyl, former Republican U.S. senator from Arizona

    * Duncan Hunter, Republican U.S. representative from California and early Trump supporter, member of the House Armed Services Committee

    * Jim Talent, former Republican U.S. senator from Missouri who was on the Senate Armed Services Committee

    * Rick Perry, former Republican Texas governor

    * Stephen Hadley, former national security adviser under President George W. Bush

    HOMELAND SECURITY SECRETARY

    * Michael McCaul, Republican U.S. representative from Texas and chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee

    * David Clarke, Milwaukee county sheriff and vocal Trump supporter

    * Joe Arpaio, outgoing Maricopa County, Arizona, sheriff who campaigned for Trump

    * Kris Kobach, Kansas secretary of state

    * Frances Townsend, homeland security and counterterrorism adviser to former Republican President George W. Bush

    ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY ADMINISTRATOR

    * Jeff Holmstead, energy lawyer, former EPA official during George W. Bush administration

    * Robert Grady, venture capitalist, partner in private equity firm Gryphon Investors

    * Leslie Rutledge, Republican Arkansas attorney general

    * Carol Comer, commissioner of the Indiana Department of Environmental Management

    * Scott Pruitt, Oklahoma attorney general

    ENERGY SECRETARY

    * Harold Hamm, Oklahoma oil and gas mogul, chief executive of Continental Resources Inc

    * Kevin Cramer, Republican U.S. Representative from North Dakota

    * Robert Grady, venture capitalist, partner in private equity firm Gryphon Investors

    * Larry Nichols, co-founder of Devon Energy Corp

    * James Connaughton, chief executive of Nautilus Data Technologies and a former environmental adviser to President George W. Bush

    * Rick Perry, former Republican Texas governor

    INTERIOR SECRETARY

    * Sarah Palin, former Alaska governor, 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee

    * Jan Brewer, former Republican Arizona governor

    * Forrest Lucas, founder of oil products company Lucas Oil

    * Harold Hamm, Oklahoma oil and gas mogul, chief executive of Continental Resources Inc

    * Robert Grady, venture capitalist, partner in private equity firm Gryphon Investors

    * Mary Fallin, Republican Oklahoma governor

    * Ray Washburne, chief executive of investment company Charter Holdings

    * Cathy McMorris Rodgers, U.S. representative from Washington state and Republican Conference chair

    COMMERCE SECRETARY

    * Wilbur Ross, billionaire investor, chairman of Invesco Ltd subsidiary WL Ross & Co

    * Linda McMahon, former World Wrestling Entertainment executive and two-time Republican Senate candidate

    DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE

    * Admiral Mike Rogers, director of the National Security Agency

    * Ronald Burgess, retired lieutenant general and former Defense Intelligence Agency chief

    * Robert Cardillo, director of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency

    * Pete Hoekstra, former Republican U.S. representative from Michigan

    * Rudy Giuliani, former Republican mayor of New York City

    U.S. TRADE REPRESENTATIVE

    * Dan DiMicco, former chief executive of steel producer Nucor Corp

    LABOR SECRETARY

    * Andrew Puzder, chief executive officer of CKE Restaurants

    * Victoria Lipnic, U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission commissioner and former Labor Department official during the George W. Bush administration

    TRANSPORTATION SECRETARY

    * Elaine Chao, former labor secretary and deputy transportation secretary under Republican Presidents George W. Bush and George H.W. Bush, respectively. Chao is married to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell

    * Harold Ford, former Democratic U.S. Representative from Tennessee

    HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT SECRETARY

    * Dr. Ben Carson, former 2016 Republican presidential candidate and retired neurosurgeon

    SUPREME COURT VACANCY

    The Trump transition team confirmed he would choose from a list of 21 names he drew up during his campaign, including Republican U.S. Senator Mike Lee of Utah, and William Pryor, a federal judge with the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.

  • Assad On Verge Of Biggest Victory Since Start Of Syrian War With Imminent Capture Of Aleppo

    The battle for one of the most contested Syrian cities in the nation’s long-running civil war, Aleppo, is approaching its climax. According to Reuters, the Syrian army and its allies announced the capture of a large swath of eastern Aleppo from rebels on Monday – by some estimates as much as 40% of the militant held part – in an accelerating attack that threatens to crush the opposition in its most important urban stronghold.

    In a major breakthrough in the government’s push to retake the whole city, regime forces captured six rebel-held districts of eastern Aleppo over the weekend, including Masaken Hanano, the biggest of those. On Sunday, the 13th day of the operation, they also took control of the adjacent neighborhoods of Jabal Badra and Baadeeen and captured three others.

    As is customary, when it comes to describing events in Syria, one has two biased narratives to choose from: one from the perspective of the Western forces, for whom the protagonist are the Syrian rebels, and Assad is the enemy, and then there is the Syrian/Russian point of view, in which the rebels are aligned with the Islamic State (and are supported by the US) and the liberation of the country entails removing both at the same time.

    Covering the former “angle” first, Reuters writes that two rebel officials said the insurgents, facing fierce bombardment and ground attacks, had withdrawn from the northern part of eastern Aleppo to a more defensible front line along a big highway after losses that threatened to split their enclave. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights – a UK funded “think tank” operated by just one man, who in 2013 was responsible for the Assad “chemical attack” fabricated YouTube clip – said the northern portion of eastern Aleppo lost by the rebels amounted to more than a third of the territory they had held, calling it the biggest defeat for the opposition in Aleppo since 2012.

    Thousands of residents were reported to have fled. A rebel fighter reached by Reuters said there was “extreme, extreme, extreme pressure” on the insurgents. Part of the area lost by the rebels was taken over by a U.S.-backed Kurdish militia from another part of Aleppo in what rebels described as an agreed handover, a rare example of cooperation between groups that have fought each other.

    What appears to be the imminent loss of Aleppo by rebel forces has sent shockwaves of demoralization across the war-torn country, and hundreds of miles to the south, people have started to leave the rebel-held Damascus suburb of Khan al-Shih for other parts of the country controlled by insurgents under a deal with the government, the Observatory said.

    As Reuters adds, capturing eastern Aleppo would be the biggest victory for President Bashar al-Assad since the start of the uprising against him in 2011, restoring his control over the whole city apart from a Kurdish-held area that has not fought against him.

    For Assad, taking back Aleppo would shore up his grip over the main population centers of western Syria where he and his allies have focused their firepower while much of the rest of the country remains outside their control. More importantly, it would be seen as a victory for his allies, Russia and Iran, which have outmanoeuvred the West and Assad’s regional enemies through direct military intervention. It would be a major slap in the face for the US and its allies.

    “What happened in the last two days is a great strategic accomplishment by the Syrian army and allies,” a fighter with a militia on the government side in the Aleppo area said.

    Meanwhile, animosity toward the US is building even among its erstwhile “friends” as rebels said their foreign patrons including the United States have abandoned them to their fate in Aleppo.

    While some of the rebels in Aleppo have received support from states such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United States during the war, they say their foreign backers have failed them as Assad and his allies unleash enormous firepower.

     

    “The situation is very bad and the reason is the round the clock shelling with all types of weapons,” said Abdul Salam Abdul Razaq, military spokesman for the Nour al-Din al-Zinki group, one of the main Aleppo rebel factions.

     

    “There is very fierce fighting going on now and the regime and its supporters are destroying whole areas to allow themselves to advance,” he told Reuters. Another fighter said there was heavy attrition in “people and ammunition”.

    Assad has gradually closed in on eastern Aleppo this year, first cutting the most direct lifeline to Turkey before fully encircling the east, and launching a major assault in September. A military news service run by Hezbollah declared the northern portion of eastern Aleppo under full state control. The Russian Defence Ministry said about 40 percent of the eastern part of the city had been “freed” from militants by Syrian government forces.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the Syrian army’s advances with members of his Security Council on Monday, Russian news agencies quoted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying.

    To preserve some pride, officials with two Aleppo rebel groups said rebels had withdrawn to areas they could more easily defend, particularly after losing the Hanano housing complex area on Saturday.

    It is a withdrawal for the sake of being able to defend and reinforce the front lines,” an official in the Jabha Shamiya rebel group told Reuters.  In other words, it’s not a defeat, just a strategic retreat.

    * * *

    Meanwhile, the same narrative from a biased Russian angle, as reported earlier by RT, sounds as follows:

    More than 3,000 civilians have left the eastern part of the besieged Syrian city of Aleppo in the last 24 hours, the Russian Center for Reconciliation said. It later reported that about 40 percent of the militant-held part of the city has been liberated. Some 3,179 people, including 1,519 children – among them 138 newborn babies – have left Eastern Aleppo through the ‘humanitarian corridors’ set up by Syrian government forces, Russian Reconciliation Center said on Monday. The center reported that 12 neighborhoods, comprising roughly 40 percent of the territory previously controlled by the militants, have been cleared.

     

    According to the Russian Center for Reconciliation, more than 80,000 people live in the newly liberated areas of the eastern part of the city. It added that more than 5,000 people fled from the southern districts of eastern Aleppo, which are still controlled by the militants, to the areas held by government forces. More than 100 militants laid down their arms and left eastern Aleppo through the special corridors, the statement said.

     

    Despite joint humanitarian efforts undertaken by the Syrian government and Russia, thousands of civilians are still kept in the eastern part of the city by militants. To minimize damage to the civilian population, the Russian and Syrian militaries suspended airstrikes and set up ‘humanitarian corridors’ for both non-combatants and militants willing to leave the area.

     

    However, the corridors are vulnerable to militant small arms fire and shelling, which complicates the evacuation of civilians. RT’s Lizzie Phelan, reporting from Syria, said the government army’s advance in the eastern part of Aleppo “has enabled civilians to leave the area,” and that there are thousands of people desperate to flee. Those who managed to escape told RT crew the militants deprived them of all means to survive, including food and water.

     

    “The militants are lying, they are holding us there, even now they are holding families [in the area]. They don’t let people go,” one man said.

     

    “Every time we tried to flee they caught us and turned us back,” a young woman added.

    As RT concludes, “currently, the Syrian Army is continuing their large-scale offensive in eastern Aleppo, targeting Al-Nusra Front and other radical militants still controlling the area. The troops have already established control over important blocks and districts in the eastern part of the city.”

    * * *

    Readers can decide which narrative they like better, but no matter how one spins it, whether Assad’s ongoing acts are of barbaric brutality or altruistically humanistic, should Aleppo fall to the Assad regime, the Syrian civil war will enter into a new phase, one where the regime will now have the clear upper hand, and will set back the US allied effort years, giving Trump few options if he wants to reengage in Syria: expand the US presence by orders of magnitude, including overt ground forces, or simply withdraw.

  • Trump Ups the Ante Over Alleged Voter Fraud: Attacks CNN and Introduces New Hashtag #CorruptHillary

    From the layman, those still inside of the matrix — bluepilled — fat and stupid off government sponsored roasted beef, the recent comments by Trump might appear to be coarse, almost petty. But if you take these comments under the context that Trump is in fact a 4 dimensional chess player and is laying a trap for bird brained Hillary supporters — which will soon be executed — laying waste to a cadre of people too stupid to see it coming, they are in fact brilliant. This evening Trump went on a twitter rampage, fucking with Jeff Zeleny, shill reporter from CNN, about his special AC360 report depicting Trump as a sore winner — merely shitposting on Twitter to distract people from the true source of angst: TRUMP LOST THE MEANINGLESS POPULAR VOTE (gasp!). trump What’s noteworthy here is the rhetoric by Trump towards the former #CrookedHillary, seemingly graduating her crime status to #CorruptHillary by retweeting someone’s comments — making her title more conducive to a legal framework — perhaps laying the groundwork for a jail granting prosecution. His comments regarding democrat voter fraud are purposeful and I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump appointed someone to audit the election results once he took office. I seriously doubt this is an unpaved road the haggard democrats want to travel now — especially when all they have to ride on are Tim Kaine tricycles.

    Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

  • Worried You Are Putin's Pawn? Mainstream Media's Checklist For Avoiding Fake News

    Submitted by Justin Raimondo via AntiWar.com,

    No one outside of a few obsessed cranks would’ve noticed it if the Washington Post hadn’t given it front page prominence last week: a formerly obscure web site, propornot.com, which purports to identify a “Russian active measures” campaign with some very specific goals in mind As Post “reporter” Craig Timberg put it:

    “The flood of ‘fake news’ this election season got support from a sophisticated Russian propaganda campaign that created and spread misleading articles online with the goal of punishing Democrat Hillary Clinton, helping Republican Donald Trump and undermining faith in American democracy, say independent researchers who tracked the operation.”

    While the Post piece doesn’t link directly to the propornot site – because doing so would’ve exposed its laughably amateurish “methodology” for all to see – Timberg does mention their list of online Boris Badenovs, including not only Antiwar.com but also the Drudge Report, WikiLeaks, David Stockman’s Contra Corner, the Ron Paul Institute, LewRockwell.com, Counterpunch, Zero Hedge, Naked Capitalism, Truthdig, Truth-out, and a host of others. These sites, according to the Post, not only promoted a barrage of “fake news” with the aim of defeating Mrs. Clinton, but they did so at the behest of a “centrally-directed” (per propornot) intelligence operation undertaken by the Russians. So what did this “fake news” consist of? Timberg “reports”:

    “Russia’s increasingly sophisticated propaganda machinery – including thousands of botnets, teams of paid human ‘trolls,’ and networks of websites and social-media accounts – echoed and amplified right-wing sites across the Internet as they portrayed Clinton as a criminal hiding potentially fatal health problems and preparing to hand control of the nation to a shadowy cabal of global financiers. The effort also sought to heighten the appearance of international tensions and promote fear of looming hostilities with nuclear-armed Russia.”

    Never mind that it was Hillary Clinton herself who heightened international tensions by threatening military retaliation against the Russians for supposedly unleashing via WikiLeaks a flood of embarrassing emails. In a speech touted as outlining her foreign policy platform, she railed:

    “You’ve seen reports. Russia’s hacked into a lot of things. China’s hacked into a lot of things. Russia even hacked into the Democratic National Committee, maybe even some state election systems. So, we’ve got to step up our game. Make sure we are well defended and able to take the fight to those who go after us.

     

    “As President, I will make it clear, that the United States will treat cyber attacks just like any other attack. We will be ready with serious political, economic and military responses.”

    According to the “experts” at propornot – granted anonymity by Timberg due to alleged fear of “Russian hackers” – to so much as note this clear threat is to brand oneself as a “Russian agent of influence.”

    And what about Mrs. Clinton’s health problems – was reporting on this driven by Russian spies embedded in the alternative media? Or was it occasioned by this video, which saw her falling to the ground after leaving the 9/11 ceremony early? Are the folks at propornot and their fans at the Washington Post saying the amateur videographer who took that footage is a Russian secret agent? Were the television networks and other outlets that showed the footage “useful idiots,” to employ a favorite cold war smear revived by propornot? Given their criteria for labeling people agents of the Kremlin, the answer to these questions has to be yes – and now we are falling down the rabbit hole, in a free-fall descent into lunacy.

    Propornot’s “criteria” for inclusion on their blacklist is actually an ideological litmus test: if you hold certain views, you’re in the pay of the Kremlin, or else an “unwitting agent – as former CIA head Mike Morell said of Trump. If you say anything at all positive about Russia or Putin – or a long list of entities, like China or “radical political parties in the US or Europe” (does this include the GOP?) – it’s a dead giveaway. We’re told to “investigate this by searching for mentions of, for example, ‘russia’, on their site by Googling for ‘site:whateversite.com Russia’, and seeing what comes up.”

    If only Sherlock Holmes had had Google at his disposal, those detective stories would’ve been a lot shorter!

    The propornot site is filled with complex graphs, and the text is riddled with “scientific”-sounding phrases, but when you get right down to it their “methodology” boils down to this: if you don’t fit within a very narrow range of allowable opinion, either falling off the left edge or the right edge, you’re either a paid Russian troll or else you’re being “manipulated” by forces you don’t understand and don’t want to understand.

    Did you cheer on Brexit? You’re Putin’s pawn!

     

    Are you worried about “World War III, nuclear devastation, etc.” instead of being content in the knowledge that their preferred policy – unmitigated hostility toward Russia — would “just result in a Cold War 2 and Russia’s eventual peaceful defeat, like the last time”? Well, then, clearly you’re either on Putin’s payroll, or else you’d like to be.

     

    Other proscribed opinions include: “gold standard nuttery and attacks on the US dollar,” believing “the mainstream media can’t be trusted,” and “anti-‘globalism.’” And to underscore their complete lack of self-awareness, we’re told that additional warning signs of Putinism are “hyperbolic alarmism” and “generally ridiculous over-the-top assertions.”

     

    In their world, it isn’t hyperbolic alarmism to point to ramshackle Russia, with a GDP equal to Spain’s and a declining military budget that pales before our own, as an existential threat to the West. And if you’re a reporter for the Washington Post, which has destroyed what reputation it had by effectively becoming the house organ of the Democratic National Committee, generally ridiculous overt-the-top assertions, such as those proffered by propornot, are “news.”

    The Post piece also cites an article published on the “War On The Rocks” web site (which is exactly what it sounds like). The authors, a triumvirate of neocons, avers that they’ve been “tracking” “Russian propaganda” efforts since 2014, and they’ve concluded that the Grand Goal of the Russkies is to “Erode trust between citizens and elected officials and democratic institutions” – as if this process isn’t occurring naturally due to the depredations of a corrupt and arrogant political class.

    Another insidious theme of Russian “active measures” as identified by these geniuses is “Stoking fears over the national debt, attacking institutions such as the Federal Reserve, and attempts to discredit Western financial experts and business leaders.” So we mustn’t talk about the national debt – because to do so brands one as a cog in Putin’s propaganda machine. Gee, based on these criteria, we can only conclude that every vaguely conservative politician running for office in the last decade or so is part of the Vast Russian Conspiracy, not to mention numerous economists.

    And that’s not all – not by a long shot. Here’s a list of more Forbidden Topics we’re not supposed to discuss, except maybe in whispers in the privacy of our own homes: “Police brutality, racial tensions, protests, anti-government standoffs, online privacy concerns, and alleged government misconduct are all emphasized [by the Vast Russian Conspiracists – ed.] to magnify their scale and leveraged to undermine the fabric of society.” After all, Russia Today is “emphasizing” these issues – so mum’s the word!

    Yes, these people are serious – but why should anyone take them seriously? Why is the Washington Post “reporting” this nonsense – and putting it on the front page, no less? In short, what’s the purpose of this virulent propaganda campaign? After all, Hillary Clinton has been defeated, along with her campaign theme of “A vote for Trump is a vote for Putin.” What does a continuation of this losing mantra hope to accomplish?

    The folks at propornot are explicit about their goal: they want the government to step in. They want to close down these “agents of influence.” In their own words, they want the FBI and the Department of Justice to launch “formal investigations” of the sites on their blacklist on the grounds that “the kind of folks who make propaganda for brutal oligarchies are often involved in a wide range of bad business.” They accuse the proprietors of the listed web sites – including us, by the way – of having “violated the Espionage Act, the Foreign Agents Registration Act, and other related laws.”

    Oh, but they say they want to “avoid McCarthyism”! They just want to shut us down and shut us up.

    These people are authoritarians, plain and simple: under the guise of fighting authoritarianism, they seek to ban dissenting views, jail the dissenters, and impose a narrow range of permissible debate on the public discourse. They are dangerous, and they need to be outed and publicly shamed.

    To be included on their list of “subversives” is really a badge of honor.

  • Former CNN Anchor Lays Out Rules For Covering Trump – "Be Relentless"

    Former CNN White House correspondent, Frank Sesno, has taken it upon himself to define the guidelines by which the news media should cover Donald Trump.  The rules were published by The Hill, where Sesno is a contributor, and urge reporters to be “relentless” yet “fair” and describes Trump is the “adversary.”

    1. Be fair. Give Trump his due: He won. As his appointments and policies emerge, they should be examined in turn and in detail, looking at their component parts. Separate news from opinion. Be sure people know the difference between analysis and commentary. Get rid of pundits who are nothing more than partisan propagandists.

     

    2. Be relentless. Relentless reporting means that journalists should demonstrate an attention span that goes beyond the last deadline or latest insult. Stay on the story. Focus on choices and tradeoffs that affect people’s lives. Tax cuts. Health care. Infrastructure. Immigration.

     

    Zero in on the particulars. Cite examples. Use data, real numbers and real people. Seek out other views, different angles. Draw upon not only “experts” but also people across the country, including the voters who upended this election.

     

    3. Focus on substance. The president-elect never laid out the deep detail behind his tweets and sound bites that got so much traction: repeal ObamaCare, rip up trade agreements, walk away from climate commitments, back off regulation, dump Dodd-Frank, rethink NATO.

     

    The media can do less horse race and more human race. Go beyond personalities and politics. Do series reporting. Cable news — with 24 hours to fill  can produce longer segments with graphics and serious conversation to dive deep. Talk radio should do less arguing and more asking.

     

    4. Respect the adversary. The adversarial nature of the press — which Trump doesn’t like and takes personally — is the cornerstone of a free press. It is the a bedrock principle by which we hold the powerful to account and ferret out incompetence, hypocrisy and corruption. Thomas Jefferson was treated that way. So was Abraham Lincoln. And Ronald Reagan. They didn’t like it, but it was power’s price of admission.

     

    Among the most dangerous sounds to come out of Trump’s mouth has been his disrespect, not just for individual journalists, but for journalism itself. Turning reporters from adversaries into enemies, inciting the crowd to the point that some reporters needed personal security protection during the campaign is the kind of horrific thing we expect to see in Venezuela or Russia or Cuba.

    After months of not holding a press conference amid multiple FBI investigations and Clinton Foundation scandals, this is how the “news media” handled Hillary’s first press conference.  We would very much appreciate Sesno’s opinion on whether or not the “How was your labor day weekend?” question fit within his guidelines…doesn’t seem all that relentless and maybe a little light on the substance as well…but we’re just a bunch of “Putin’s useful idiots” peddling “fake news”…what do we know?

     

    Of course, language like Sesno’s opening paragraphs below simply prove that the crusade against Trump is nothing more than a personal vendetta against a candidate that repeatedly exposed, embarrassed and humiliated the mainstream media for their biased coverage. 

    He summons network anchors and top execs to complain about unfair coverage and unflattering photos. He upbraids cable networks for their unrelenting coverage. He cancels a session with The New York Times, suggesting his media war is just beginning, and then reschedules the meeting. He’s on the record, then off the record. He posts a two-and-a-half-minute YouTube video that lays out the first executive actions he plans to take, shunning the journalists he distrusts so much.

     

    Last week’s acrimonious dance between President-elect Donald Trump and the media is just the warmup.

    And while Sesno claims the high ground by asserting that journalists play a key “mediating role in our democracy,” the electorate just proved that they know better.  While journalists should play a “key mediating role in our democracy”, the news media has proven time and again that they simply use their “access to decision-makers” to push carefully crafted narratives supporting their chosen political candidates and therefore can’t be trusted.

    Say what you will about the news media, but journalists run interference between the public and the public officials who govern us.

     

    Reporters have experience and, often, expertise. They can compare one comment, one promise to another. They have access to decision-makers and the loyal opposition. They play a mediating role in our democracy, where we hold government leaders accountable.

     

    The best journalists are stand-ins for citizens, paid to go up close and ask tough questions.

    Alas, as we’ve said before, the Trump administration welcomes this kind of frustrated backlash from disaffected reporters as it simply serves to maintain the focus of America’s anger on the corrupt media and almost ensures a Trump re-election in 4 years.

    Sesno

  • The FT Asks "Is This The Elites' "Marie Antoinette" Moment?"

    Authored by Wolfgang Munchau, originally posted at FT.com,

    Some revolutions could have been avoided if the old guard had only refrained from provocation. There is no proof of a “let them eat cake” incident. But this is the kind of thing Marie Antoinette could have said. It rings true. The Bourbons were hard to beat as the quintessential out-of-touch establishment.

    They have competition now.

    Our global liberal democratic establishment is behaving in much the same way. At a time when Britain has voted to leave the EU, when Donald Trump has been elected US president, and Marine Le Pen is marching towards the Elysée Palace, we — the gatekeepers of the global liberal order — keep on doubling down.

    The campaign by Tony Blair, former UK prime minister, to undo Brexit is probably the quaintest example of all. A more serious incident was the forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility in the UK, which said last week that Brexit would have severe economic consequences. Coming only a few months after the economics profession discredited itself with a doomy forecast about the consequences of Brexit, this is an astonishing reminder of the inadequacy of economic forecasting models.

    The truth about the impact of Brexit is that it is uncertain, beyond the ability of any human being to forecast and almost entirely dependent on how the process will be managed. “Don’t know” is the technically correct answer. Before the referendum, Project Fear was merely a monumental tactical miscalculation. Today it is stupidity. One of the debates was whether people should be listening to experts. We have moved beyond that. Because of a tendency to exaggerate, macroeconomists are no longer considered experts on the macroeconomy.

    Out-of-touch former leaders and the economic establishment are not unique. In Italy, the political establishment is considering amending recently modified electoral law solely to keep Beppe Grillo’s rebellious Five Star Movement from power. This is intertwined in a complex way with next Sunday’s referendum on constitutional reform.

    The electoral law that came into force in July gives the strongest party quasi-dictatorial powers. It was a stitch-up agreed in 2014 between Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s Democratic party and former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia. Neither man then believed the Five Star Movement would ever be in a position to shake the cosy duopoly. No matter how the referendum on constitutional reforms ends, expect to see one of the most glaring efforts of gerrymandering in modern politics. But Mr Renzi’s problem is not the Five Star Movement. It is the voters.

    The EU itself, too, is doubling down whenever it can. The trade agreement with Canada, and the yet to be concluded Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, are about as popular today as the stationing of medium-range nuclear missiles in the 1980s. A popular insurrection is under way against them because people fear a reduction in consumer protection and a power grab by multinationals.

    Why is this happening? Macroeconomists thought no one would dare challenge their authority. Italian politicians have been playing power games forever. And the job of EU civil servants is to find ingenious ways of spiriting politically tricky legislation and treaties past national legislatures. Even as the likes of Ms Le Pen, Mr Grillo and Geert Wilders of the far-right Dutch Freedom party head towards power, the establishment keeps acting this way. A Bourbon regent, in an uncharacteristic moment of reflection, would have backed off. Our liberal capitalist order, with its competing institutions, is constitutionally incapable of doing that. Doubling down is what it is programmed to do.

    The correct course of action would be to stop insulting voters and, more importantly, to solve the problems of an out-of-control financial sector, uncontrolled flows of people and capital, and unequal income distribution. In the eurozone, political leaders found it expedient to muddle through the banking crisis and then a sovereign debt crisis — only to find Greek debt is unsustainable and the Italian banking system is in serious trouble. Eight years on, there are still investors out there betting on a collapse of the eurozone as we know it.

    Mr Renzi could have used his ample political capital to reform the Italian economy instead of trying to cement his power. And imagine what would have been possible if Chancellor Angela Merkel had spent her even larger political capital on finding a solution to the eurozone’s multiple crises, or on reducing Germany’s excessive current account surpluses. If you want to fight extremism, solve the problem.

    But it is not happening for the same reason it did not happen in revolutionary France. The gatekeepers of western capitalism, like the Bourbons before them, have learnt nothing and forgotten nothing.

  • Defense Department Launches Probe Of Petraeus Sex Scandal Leaks

    As reported earlier today, in what may be a tiebreaker option for Secretary of State in Trump’s administration with both Romney and Giuliani seemingly unable to get enough internal support to make it over the hurdle, the president elect met with David Petraeus, a former U.S. military commander in Iraq whose sharing of classified information with his biographer mistress, led to his resignation as CIA chief in 2012, to evaluate him for the top diplomatic position in the US government.

    Petraeus said after meeting Trump that the New York businessman “basically walked us around the world” in their discussion. “He showed a great grasp of the variety of challenges that are out there and some of the opportunities as well,” Petraeus told reporters.

    Trump’s initial response appeared favorable:  “Just met with General Petraeus–was very impressed!” Trump tweeted shortly after the meeting which lasted one hour at Trump Tower in Manhattan.

    After he resigned from the CIA in November 2012, he avoided a criminal trial by agreeing to a plea deal in April 2015. It required him to serve two years on probation and pay a $100,000 fine on a misdemeanor charge of unauthorized possession of classified information. While that may create the unusual prospect of a cabinet secretary who could still be on criminal probation for his first months in office, Trump said during the presidential campaign that Petraeus’s violations paled compared to those of Trump’s opponent, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who shared classified information on a private e-mail server.

    So will Petraeus’ past come back to haunt him?

    According to a  reports by Reuters, the answer may, surprisingly, be no: “Petraeus’ past mishandling of classified documents is unlikely to be an obstacle to Trump offering him a top government post, said a source who has advised the transition team on national security. That is despite Trump harshly criticizing Democratic rival Hillary Clinton during the election campaign for using a private email server while she was secretary of state.”

    “Other lives, including General Petraeus and many others, have been destroyed for doing far, far less,” Trump said at a rally in October. “This is a conspiracy against you, the American people, and we cannot let this happen or continue.”

    However, as Bloomberg notes, FBI’s notorious director James Comey, who oversaw both the Petraeus and Clinton investigations, disagreed. In a July 7 hearing, he told the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee that Petraeus’s behavior was worse than Clinton’s, saying that he deliberately “lied” when first questioned by investigators. Regarding Hillary, Comey has said there was no evidence that Clinton or her aides had intended to break the law through careless handling of sensitive information. Federal prosecutors said Petraeus knew black binders he shared with Broadwell contained classified information, but he nonetheless provided them.

    “So you have obstruction of justice, you have intentional misconduct and a vast quantity of information” that was highly classified, Comey said. “He admitted he knew that was the wrong thing to do. That is a perfect illustration of the kind of cases that get prosecuted.”

    The issue could be an impediment for Petraeus in a confirmation hearing before the Foreign Relations Committee, according to Republican Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, a libertarian who is opposed to most U.S. intervention abroad. “The problem they are going to have if they put him forward is there are a lot of similarities to Hillary Clinton,” Paul said Monday on CNN.

    Now add one more: according to a report by AP this afternoon, the Defense Department has launched a leaks investigation related to the sex scandal that led to the resignation of former CIA Director David Petraeus.   A U.S. official told the AP that investigators are trying to determine who leaked personal information about Paula Broadwell, the woman whose affair with Petraeus led to criminal charges against him and his resignation. AP adds that the information concerned the status of Broadwell’s security clearance.

    Disclosure of the Broadwell information without official permission would have been a violation of federal criminal law.

    The latest twist in this case – oddly similar to the reopening of the FBI probe into Hillary Clinton’s email server – will likely complicate Petraeus’ prospects of obtaining a Cabinet position in the Trump administration, resurfacing details of the extramarital affair and FBI investigation that ended his career at the CIA and tarnished the reputation of the retired four-star general.

    Of course, in Hillary’s case, the FBI quickly closed its reopened probe into her email just over a week after it was reopened after her emails mysteriously emerged on the notebook computer of Anthony Weiner’s computer. For the Petraeus case to be a carbon copy, any renewed probe into his conduct would similarly have to be closed in a matter of days. We doubt that will happen, which is why as of this moment, absent a material change, it is likely safe to say that the former general can be counted out from the running for the Secretary of State position under the Trump administration.

  • Furious Democrats Blast Stein's Recount Effort As Nothing But A "Scam"

    With the passing of each new day, it’s growing more and more difficult to find anyone that is actually supportive of Jill Stein’s recount efforts (aka fundraising scam).  The Obama administration has already weighed in saying that the election results “accurately reflected the will of the American people” while Clinton’s campaign attorney even confirmed they had not “uncovered any actionable evidence of hacking or outside attempts to alter the voting technology.”

    Now, even prominent democratic strategists are turning on Stein as Joe Trippi described her efforts as a “waste of time and money.” Worse, in an accusation that may have more substantial consequences,  some Democrats have gone so far as to echo Trump’s charge that re-tallying votes from the presidential race is just a “scam” being advanced by Stein, who has raised more than $6 million to fund potential recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, three states critical to the Republican nominee’s win.

    “It’s a waste of time and money. It is not going to change anything,” said Democratic strategist Joe Trippi, who served as campaign manager for former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean’s 2004 presidential campaign.

     

    “I think it probably was the Stein people looking for a way to stay relevant, raise some money and take the stink off of them. Instead of everybody screaming, ‘You made Trump happen,’ she is counting the votes to change that whole narrative.”

    Moreover, democrat strategist Robert Shrum confirmed that the “Clinton people would have preferred this not to happen” while adding that there is “no chance” that the recounts will change the election’s outcome.

    Aides to former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton have sought a middle ground on Stein’s push. The remaining Clinton campaign team will “participate” in the effort but is not actively supporting it.

     

    In a Medium post on Saturday, Clinton lawyer Marc Elias wrote, “Because we had not uncovered any actionable evidence of hacking or outside attempts to alter the voting technology, we had not planned to exercise this option ourselves.”

     

    The Clinton team’s involvement will likely be limited to having lawyers or other experts at recount sites to watch over the proceedings.

     

    “My sense is that the Clinton people would have preferred this not to happen and are going to be involved only in a monitoring capacity,” said Robert Shrum, a Democratic strategist and a veteran of several presidential campaigns, including that of 2004 nominee John Kerry.

     

    Shrum added that he believed “people are way over-excited about the thing.” There is, he added, “no chance” that it will change the election’s outcome.

    Meanwhile, the practical and logistical hurdles to success are starting to mount for Stein.  In order to get a state-wide recount in Pennsylvania, Stein needed affidavits from three residents in each of Pennsylvania’s 9,000 precincts to be filed by 5pm EST…something she apparently just thought about earlier today.

     

    Moreover, this afternoon the state of Wisconsin released their official “Presidential Election Recount Cost Estimate” which came in at $3.5mm, or a mere 3x more that the $1.1mm that Stein had originally estimated and more than half of the $6.4mm she’s raised so far.

    So, while you may be “With Her”, dear Jill, pretty much no one is with you.  Though we’re sure you enjoyed extending your 15 minutes of fame and profiting from your fundraising scam, it’s now long past time for you to fade back into irrelevance and exit the national spotlight for good.

    With here

     

    Finally, perhaps PJW summarizes the Jill Stein recount farce the best:

  • 'Real' Money & Why You Need It Now, Part 2

    In these volatile times, gold is more important than ever. Bonner & Partners' Bill Bonner explains in this two-part series (Part 1 here), the importance of 'real money' and why you need it now…

    Why You Will Need Gold

    What troubles my sleep is what is not in the textbooks.

    Central banks are in the process of making trillions in government debt disappear. Governments borrow money that doesn’t exist. The debt is bought up by the central bank, which creates money for that purpose. The interest paid to the central bank on the debt is paid back to the U.S. Treasury (that’s the deal between the Fed and the U.S. government).

    Then, when the bond matures, the “normal” thing would be for the borrower – the U.S. government – to repay the loan. This repayment money would have to come out of the economy and into the Fed’s vaults, thus reducing the amount of money in circulation and triggering an economic slump.

    The federal government would have to run a surplus in order to actually be a net payer of debt rather than a net borrower. That’s not going to happen. Instead, it borrows more – to repay the old loan – and adds further fuel to hot asset markets. The debt is never settled… it goes on forever… eternally unpaid, forgotten in the bank’s vaults. It is as if it had disappeared completely.

    The debt may disappear. But the credit – the money put into the economy to create the debt – lives on. It spends its days chasing asset prices. Stocks, bonds, real estate, art – all go up. Bread and automobiles remain more or less where they were. Who complains?

    Keynesian economists Larry Summers of Harvard and Paul Krugman of Princeton practically drool when they think of it… a paradise where governments can redistribute wealth and undertake huge capital investment projects – roads, hospitals, bridges, harbors – at no cost. The feds get to borrow money, hire people, and spend on pet projects. Then, as if by magic, the debt vanishes. What could be better?

    The only thing that might be better would be negative interest rates, in which the government is actually paid to borrow. That is already happening. In Europe, rates have fallen so low that currently, Switzerland can borrow for 10 years at a MINUS 0.2% rate.

    This allows the government – and only the government, because it is the only institution that can positively, absolutely guarantee that you will get your money when you are supposed to – to go to heaven without dying.

    Further disturbing my sleep has been a report from Japan that the central bank has intervened directly in the stock market. The significance of this is staggering. Because now, the feds have in place the means – apparently – to take control of nearly all our wealth.

    The government borrows. The central bank buys its debt. Then it never asks to be repaid.

    As Japan shows, it can also buy stocks with the same free money. Bidding against a buyer who gets his money for nothing will be impossible. Gradually, the feds could acquire a controlling interest in almost all the world’s publicly listed companies. And who would object? Stock prices would go through the roof.

    As for the nation’s debt – public and private – who minds if the feds buy it… and disappear it? Nobody.

    As the price of debt goes up, the financial industry becomes richer. And government – and recipients of government money – are happy, too; the money just keeps flowing in their direction.

    Leading economists – notably Ken Rogoff of Harvard and Willem Buiter of Citigroup – also encourage the feds to outlaw cash… giving them a trifecta of financial control. They would have a grip on America’s equity, debt, and bank accounts.

    Already, government-sponsored agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are backing approximately 60% of new U.S. mortgages since 2008. Meaning the feds effectively own $4.8 trillion worth of U.S. housing. The Federal Reserve owns a further $4.5 trillion in debt. And through the student loan program, 40 million young people count on the feds to not foreclose on their lives.

    The only significant asset that remains out of their grasp is gold. And they may grab that soon.

    It wouldn’t be the first time. In 1933, Franklin Roosevelt’s Executive Order 6102 decreed that all gold should be turned in to the U.S. Treasury at $20 an ounce. Then, after the gold was in his hands, he was able to devalue the U.S. dollar by 75%, pricing gold at $35 an ounce.

    Gold was cash back then. And Roosevelt was trying to avoid the very thing we’ve seen happen in Argentina, Cyprus, and, most recently, Greece – a dash for cash.

    With free money available to them, the feds today could easily close that door, too – declaring private gold reserves illegal. They might offer to buy it for, say, $1,500 an ounce. Who would object to a 25% premium?

    The feds are the lenders and buyers of last resort. As the quality of assets declines, more and more assets – debt and equity – end up in their hands. Gradually, they control more and more of the capital structure – bought with free money under cover of financial necessity. Gradually, there is less and less “free” in free enterprise. And gradually, there is less and less real wealth created.

    Gradually, too, the noose tightens around your financial neck, as there are fewer and fewer doors open and fewer places that are safe to keep your wealth.

    No one likes to have his wealth “nationalized” at the point of a gun. But everyone likes having it bought from him for more than it is worth.

    This is what has happened already in the QE programs in Europe and America… and even more so in Japan’s QE program (with an extra helping of equity buying). How much more of it the world can take is anybody’s guess. No one knows how far this can go. But as far as I know, no economy has ever been successfully Sovietized by printing money and using it to buy assets.

    Don’t Sweat the Ice Age

    Many economists are foretelling a long period of sluggish growth and low price inflation. The economy may want to go into a deflationary hibernation, they say. But since the feds can print and spend with impunity, it may be a long time coming. Plus, if the government is able to force people into bank accounts – and out of cash – it will be able to tax savings and further stimulate spending.

    With these new tools, the feds should be able to prevent a real correction for many years. They suggest that we prepare for an economic “Ice Age,” with little change year to year.

    Asset prices won’t fall because the central bank is actively buying bonds, and maybe even stocks, adding new money to the financial economy. Consumer prices won’t rise because there is no real growth in demand. Debt will increase – but it is hidden and forgotten in central-bank vaults.

    Maybe so. But I don’t think you should expect it. It could lead to a dangerous complacency. The feds might be able to hold this together and they might not. This Ice Age formula – dousing a debt-soaked economy with more debt – is not a way to build a healthy economy. It is just a way to shift real resources to the government and its cronies without causing either a frightening spell of inflation or deflation.

    It might work for a while. But the falcon of asset prices becomes deaf to the falconer of the real economy. Then, in a kind of financial never-never land, he gets lost completely and flies into a tree. Asset prices fall to the ground. Investors panic. Lenders call their loans. Art investors rush to auction off their tableaux. Lines form at ATMs.

    I am not going to speculate on how or when this occurs.

    “If you’re in a theater and one person walks calmly to an exit, it doesn’t attract much notice,” said Vern Gowdie, an Australian colleague. “Two… three… probably not much reaction either. But if you have three people suddenly run for an exit, you’ll have a panic.”

    What then?

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Today’s News 28th November 2016

  • Let’s bring capital back to USA, too

    It’s laudable that Trump wants to bring factories back to USA.  But how about virtual, monetary factories?  Moving financial institutions such as banks, insurers, brokerage houses, exchanges, and other institutions brings the most bang for the buck when it comes to revitalizing America’s economy.

    As we explain in Splitting Pennies, even though money doesn’t exist, it’s the most important part of a healthy economy.

    The business climate in USA is about to change greatly, pro-business.  But let’s not forget that capital is portable, we can bring capital back to USA too- not just factories.  Capital has been fleeing USA faster and faster.  Let’s stop the leaks and then bring it home.  We printed it – it’s our money!  – @FXBanker

    It’s laudable that Trump wants to bring factories back to USA.  But how about virtual, monetary factories?  Moving financial institutions such as banks, insurers, brokerage houses, exchanges, and other institutions brings the most bang for the buck when it comes to revitalizing America’s economy.

    No doubt, re-building America’s factories, previously the manufacturing base of the world, should be a priority for a number of reasons.  Not only does it provide jobs and stimulate the local economy – it’s a security issue.  Since when is it ‘politically correct’ to ‘outsource’ military technology development to foreign countries?  60% of the actual activities of the CIA are outsourced, many of them by companies that do not operate in America!  For example, the system used by Prisoners to call friends and relatives involves special features such as call tracking, call recording, and other functions for obvious criminal tracking purposes.  The company who provides this software to prisons, is based in Israel.  Nothing against Israel – but it seems to be a conflict of interest?  At least for functions such as finance, the military, security, software encryption, and other critical infrastructure – it shouldn’t be outsourced.  Brining an H1B genius to Charlotte, NC from India is one thing, outsourcing development to a firm in Mumbai, is another.  The difference is like, the enemy manufacturing the weapons; there’s no telling when guns will ‘misfire’ due to an ‘error.’  While this didn’t happen on a large scale in a glaringly obvious smoking gun fashion as we saw during 9/11 – subtle security breaches are so common it’s become a niche black industry, stealing and selling data on the black market.  Well they aren’t stealing it, they have it – it’s just a grey area, how data is ‘lost’ and then ‘found’ by partner companies. 

    To a large extent, the fact that ‘technology’ has been offshored & outsourced was due to bad planning and cost saving.  The majority of Intellectual Property (IP) remains in USA with companies that are heavy outsourcers like Amazon, Google, Apple, and others.  They went into China and India at a time when it was the ‘hip’ thing to do, and Steve Jobs knew a lot about India, practically being a Yogi himself (or anyway, a wannabe Yogi).  The logistic thought of moving all those machines, which would all need to be retooled, to USA is practically impossible.  But if they were once built in China – why can’t they be built in Oklahoma?  You know, there’s cheap labor in USA too.  I heard recently about someone who writes for a blog that is paid $10 for 200 words, a US Citizen.  Oh yes, factory work, the unions, the unions.. But what about California wineries and other fairly large businesses using illegals anyway?  The lines of states and countries have become so blurred, especially when ‘American’ companies may have non-US investors, an HQ office in Chicago, factory in Costa Rica, and a European sales force.  Of course, all their IP is owned by a Luxembourg based holding company which they pay ‘licensing fees’ to tax free, even though they’ve never been to Luxembourg or even know what it is (a town, right?).  Actually, Luxembourg actually participates in the Olympics.

    There’s one consideration too that Trump needs to be aware of – if he’s going to court Silicon Valley and get them to ‘bring it home’ he’s going to have to offer them some serious benefits.  USA’s biggest taxpayers, “Big Oil” (Chevron, Exxon) pay the top maximum tax every year, billions upon billions of dollars.  They don’t use tax loop holes, but they get a huge benefit of working with the government, as their customer.  They get the US military protecting their international assets, they get the CIA opening up new markets for them (and squashing the competition, literally).  They get direct access to politicians on a number of levels and issues without the need of lobbyists (although, they employ them too).  They don’t protest the government like the liberal left coast, they practically own it.  It’s another approach toward crony capitalism.

    Capital is so portable now, Trump will have to sell the billionaire class which fought against him during the campaign through their Illuminati puppet HRC.  There’s literally nothing stopping JP Morgan from moving to Canada in 2 weeks.  They don’t even have to get plane tickets, they can purchase 18 wheelers and other transport vehicles and build a small city outside of Toronto.  Not a likely scenario just to outline how easy it is for money to flow in and out of an economy in today’s world, without capital controls.  

    Best example is Forex – billions flowed quickly outside of USA to trade this new and exciting market.  A change in the Forex rules could quickly see those billions and more flow back, within a short time period of Dodd-Frank FX rules being deleted,  as
    explained in this article on Global Intel Hub.

    Join the Delete FX Rules in Dodd-Frank Petition today by
    clicking here

    To get a quick primer on
    what this is all about, checkout Splitting Pennies Understanding Forex – the world’s
    first “REAL” FX book.

  • "Governments Are Running Out Of Excuses" Paul Craig Roberts Exposes "The Western War On Truth"

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    The “war on terror” has simultaneously been a war on truth. For fifteen years—from 9/11 to Saddam Hussein’s “weapons of mass destruction” and “al Qaeda connections,” “Iranian nukes,” “Assad’s use of chemical weapons,” endless lies about Gadaffi, “Russian invasion of Ukraine”—the governments of the so-called Western democracies have found it essential to align themselves firmly with lies in order to pursue their agendas. Now these Western governments are attempting to discredit the truthtellers who challenge their lies.

    Russian news services are under attack from the EU and Western presstitutes as purveyors of “fake news.Abiding by its Washington master’s orders, the EU actually passed a resolution against Russian media for not following Washington’s line. Russian President Putin said that the resolution is a “visible sign of degradation of Western society’s idea of democracy.”

    As George Orwell predicted, telling the truth is now regarded by Western “democratic” governments as a hostile act. A brand new website, propornot.com, has just made its appearance condemning a list of 200 Internet websites that provide news and views at variance with the presstitute media that serves the governments’ agendas. Does propornot.com’s funding come from the CIA, the National Endowment for Democracy, George Soros?

    I am proud to say that paulcraigroberts.org is on the list.

    In the West those who disagree with the murderous and reckless policies of public officials are demonized as “Russian agents.” The president-elect of the United States himself has been designated a “Russian agent.”

    This scheme to redefine truthtellers as propagandists has backfired. The effort to discredit truthtellers has instead produced a catalogue of websites where reliable information can be found, and readers are flocking to the sites on the list. Moreover, the effort to discredit truthtellers shows that Western governments and their presstitutes are intolerant of truth and diverse opinion and are committed to forcing people to accept self-serving government lies as truth.

    Clearly, Western governments and Western media have no respect for truth, so how can the West possibly be democratic?

    The presstitute Washington Post played its assigned role in the claim promoted by Washington that the alternative media consists of Russian agents. Craig Timberg, who appears devoid of integrity or intelligence, and perhaps both, is the WaPo stooge who reported the fake news that “two teams of independent researchers” – none of whom are identified – found that the Russians exploited my gullibility, that of CounterPunch, Professor Michel Chossudosky of Global Researh, Ron Paul, Lew Rockwell, Justin Raimondo and that of 194 other websites to help “an insurgent candidate” (Trump) “claim the White House.”

    Note the term applied to Trump – “insurgent candidate.” That tells you all you need to know. You can read here what passes as “reliable reporting” in the presstitute Washington Post, and here.

    Glenn Greenwald of The Intercept, which somehow escaped inclusion in The 200, unloads on Timberg and the Washington Post here.

    Western governments are running out of excuses. Since the Clinton regime, the accumulation of war crimes committed by Western governments exceed those of Nazi Germany. Millions of Muslims have been slaughtered, dislocated, and dispossessed in seven countries. Not a single Western war criminal has been held accountable.

    The despicable Washington Post is a prime apologist for these war criminals. The entire Western print and TV media is so heavily implicated in the worst war crimes in human history that, if justice ever happens, the presstitutes will stand in the dock with the Clintons, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, Obama and their neocon operatives or handlers as the case may be.

  • Is It Over? Dow Futures Drop As USDJPY Tumbles Most Since July

    After 16 days in a row without a meaningful decline, Asia trading has opened with USDJPY dumping back from almost 114.00 to 111.50 – the biggest drop since July 29th. The USD Index is down most since Trump's win but for now the moves in equities (Japanese and US) are modest (but down)…

     

    Yen is heavily bid as Asia trading opens

     

    The biggest drop in USDJPY since July…

     

    As the post-Trump surge in the dollar has seemingly stalled…

     

    Japanese equities are getting hit…

     

    but for now, the Friday spike in US equities at the close is stalling (though modestly)…

  • 60% Of New Yorkers Are One Paycheck Away From Homelessness

    More than half of all New Yorkers don’t have enough money saved to cover them in the event of a lost job, medical emergency, or other disaster, according to a new report by the Association for Neighborhood & Housing Development.

    Click image for massive legible version)

     

    As The Gothamist reports, nearly 60 percent of New Yorkers lack the emergency savings necessary to cover at least three months’ worth of household expenses including food, housing, and rent, but that statistic isn’t spread evenly across the five boroughs.

    The Bronx has the highest rate of families without adequate emergency savings: in Mott Haven, Melrose, Hunts Point, Longwood, Highbridge, South Concourse, University Heights, Fordham, Belmont, and East Tremont, 75 percent of families have inadequate emergency savings. The Staten Island neighborhoods of Tottenville and Great Kills have the lowest rate, with just 41 percent of families lacking the funds necessary to cover three months’ worth of expenses.

     

    Without these savings, families who face emergencies could be at risk of eviction, foreclosure, damaged credit, and even homelessness.

     

    In Brooklyn, families in Brownsville (70%), Bed-Stuy (67%), Bushwick (68%), East New York (67%), and South Crown Heights/Prospect Heights (67%) are the most at-risk—in Manhattan, an average of 67 percent of families in Harlem, Washington Heights, and Inwood lack necessary savings.

     

    In Queens, the neighborhoods with the highest percentage of these households were Elmhurst/Corona (64%), Rockaway/Broad Channel (60%), Sunnyside/Woodside (59%), and Jackson Heights (59%).

     

    Read more here…

    As The ANHD report above shows, there are a litany of other statistics that, when looked at together, paint a picture of a neighborhood’s potential (or lack of it) for economic opportunity: incarceration, unemployment, poverty rates for each neighborhood are included, as are each neighborhood’s percentage of small businesses, percentage of households without internet, and percentage of rent-burdened households.

    Now the question is – is this fake news? is this peddling fiction? Since it sure doesn’t add up to the utopia that Clinton/Obama/Dems have spewed to their identity-divided supporters.

  • Ron Paul Lashes Out At WaPo's Witch Hunt: "Expect Such Attacks To Continue"

     

    Washington Post Peddles Tarring of Ron Paul Institute as Russian Propaganda, via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

     

    The Washington Post has a history of misrepresenting Ron Paul’s views. Last year the supposed newspaper of record ran a feature article by David A. Fahrenthold in which Fahrenthold grossly mischaracterized Paul as an advocate for calamity, oppression, and poverty — the opposite of the goals Paul routinely expresses and, indeed, expressed clearly in a speech at the event upon which Fahrenthold’s article purported to report. Such fraudulent attacks on the prominent advocate for liberty and a noninterventionist foreign policy fall in line with the newspaper’s agenda. As Future of Freedom Foundation President Jacob G. Hornberger put it in a February editorial, the Post’s agenda is guided by “the interventionist mindset that undergirds the mainstream media.”

    On Thursday, the Post published a new article by Craig Timberg complaining of a “flood” of so-called fake news supported by “a sophisticated Russian propaganda campaign that created and spread misleading articles online with the goal of punishing Democrat Hillary Clinton, helping Republican Donald Trump and undermining faith in American democracy,” To advance this conclusion, Timberg points to PropOrNot, an organization of anonymous individuals formed this year, as having identified “more than 200 websites as routine peddlers of Russian propaganda during the election season.” Look on the PropOrNot list. There is the Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity’s (RPI) website RonPaulInstitute.org listed among websites termed “Russian propaganda outlets.”

    What you will not find on the PropOrNot website is any particularized analysis of why the RPI website, or any website for that matter, is included on the list. Instead, you will see only sweeping generalizations from an anonymous organization. The very popular website drudgereport.com even makes the list. While listed websites span the gamut of political ideas, they tend to share in common an independence from the mainstream media.

    Timberg’s article can be seen as yet another big media attempt to shift the blame for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s loss of the presidential election away from Clinton, her campaign, and the Democratic National Committee (DNC) that undermined Sen Bernie Sanders’ (I-VT) challenge to Clinton in the Democratic primary.

    The article may also be seen as another step in the effort to deter people from looking to alternative sources of information by labeling those information sources as traitorous or near-traitorous.

    At the same time, the article may be seen as playing a role in the ongoing push to increase tensions between the United States and Russia — a result that benefits people, including those involved in the military-industrial complex, who profit from the growth of US “national security” activity in America and overseas.

    This is not the first time Ron Paul and his institute has been attacked for sounding pro-Russian or anti-American. Such attacks have been advanced even by self-proclaimed libertarians.

    Expect that such attacks will continue. They are an effort to tar Paul and his institute so people will close themselves off from information Paul and RPI provide each day in furtherance of the institute’s mission to continue and expand Paul’s “lifetime of public advocacy for a peaceful foreign policy and the protection of civil liberties at home.” While peace and liberty will benefit most people, powerful interests seek to prevent the realization of these objectives. Indeed, expect attacks against RPI to escalate as the institute continues to reach growing numbers of people with its educational effort

  • The U.S. Silver Market Experienced Two Signficant Developments

    SRSrocco Report

    By the SRSrocco Report,

    According to the USGS most recent report, the U.S. silver market experienced two significant developments in August.  From the data published in the USGS August Silver Mineral Industry Survey, U.S. silver production declined significantly while silver imports surged to near record highs.

    First, U.S. silver production in August is down a stunning 14% compared to the same month last year and down 10% versus the previous month:

    USGS U.S. Silver Production

    This is certainly a big decline compared to the trend earlier in the year where the average U.S. silver mine supply was approximately 95 metric tons a month.  What makes this quite surprising is that the price of silver hit a high of $20.7 in August, nearly $5 higher than during January-March.  So, why is U.S. silver production declining so much as the price continued higher??

    I called up the USGS Silver Specialist and left a message on their answering service as to the details why silver production in the U.S. declined so much in August.  However, no reply was forthcoming in the following days.

    Secondly, the U.S. silver imports hit a near record high of 581 metric tons (mt) in August versus 502 mt in July and 464 mt in June:

    U.S. Silver Imports

    This large jump in U.S. silver imports is interesting as demand for the iShares Silver ETF was basically flat in August.  Even though the SLV ETF silver inventories surged during the first half of the year, it was relatively flat in July and August.

    What I found also quite interesting is that the U.S. imported 55 mt of silver from Poland in August which was half of their total monthly mine supply.  Poland produces about 105 mt of silver a month.  Normally, Poland exports no more than 10-20 mt of silver a month to the United States.

    For whatever reason, U.S. silver imports surged as the price hit a record high of $20.7 in August.  As I mentioned, this silver did not make its way into the iShares Silver SLV ETF as their inventories remained flat.  So, where did it go?

    Well, according to the information from the COMEX, total inventories on the exchange increased from 153 million oz (Moz) at the beginning of August to 163 Moz by the end of the month.  Thus, the COMEX silver inventories increased 10 Moz or 311 metric tons in August.  Thus, some of the nearly 80 metric tons imported by the United States in August made its way into the COMEX silver inventories.

    Of course, that is if the COMEX holds all the silver it states in its inventories or if each silver bar doesn’t have several owners.

    Regardless, to see such a large decline in U.S. silver production in August was quite surprising.  Furthermore, the Silver Institute just put out their 2016 Interim Silver Report which they state that world silver production is forecasted to decline in 2016.

    Unfortunately, once U.S. and global oil production starts to head south in a big way, world silver production will most certainly follow suit.  More about this in future articles.

    Lastly, I will begin posting articles by The Hills Group on the oil and energy market this weekend.  Bedford Hill of The Hills Group, has a wealth of knowledge on the oil industry, their ETP Oil Model as well as other aspects of the energy industry.  I posted The Hills Group short response to the USGS announcement of a new 20 billion barrel oil resource in the Wolfcamp Shale formation in Texas.

    Lastly, if you haven’t checked out our new PRECIOUS METALS INVESTING section or our new LOWEST COST PRECIOUS METALS STORAGE page, I highly recommend you do.

    Check back for new articles and updates at the SRSrocco Report.

  • Is This The Democrats' Real Strategy In Launching Recounts?

    Over the past couple of days we’ve written numerous times about Jill Stein’s recount efforts in WI, MI and PA (see here, here and here).  And while it’s clear that Stein intends to move forward with recounts in all three states (she’s now up to $6.1mm in donations), what is unclear, and quite perplexing, is exactly why she’s pursuing these recounts in the first place.  Here are the potential justifications from Stein’s perspective, as we see them:

    1. Personal self-interest? – Obviously, No.  With less than 1% of the vote in WI, MI and PA, Stein obviously has no shot of winning any of the states in question.
    2. Hopes of recount tipping states to Hillary? – No.  Multiple experts and even Hillary campaign insiders have admitted that overturning election results with a margin of victory of several 1,000 votes is extremely unlikely.  To win, Hillary would have to flip WI, MI and PA even though she trails by ~20k, ~12k and ~70k votes in each of those states, respectively…not going to happen.
    3. Exposing voting machine hacking? – No.  Even the Obama administration has confirmed the the election was “free and fair from a cybersecurity perspective” and that votes “accurately reflect the will of the American people.”  By failing to present even a shred of evidence of vote tampering in her WI recount petition, instead choosing to focus on wild conspiracy theories, Stein effectively also admits that there was no “hacking” of voting machines.
    4. Fundraising scam to get millions in donations from disaffected Hillary voters? – Maybe.  As of right now, Stein has raised ~$6mm of the $7mm she says she needs to fund recount efforts.  Assuming Stein goes through with recounts in all three states and her cost estimates are reasonably accurate then she won’t really have that much money left over to be added to the general Green Party coffers.

    So, with no practical reason for forcing recounts, what exactly is Jill Stein up to?

    Stein

     

    One theory is that Stein is simply hoping to disrupt the electoral college process to push the 2016 election into the hands Congress while drawing the legitimacy of Trump’s presidency into question.

    As Edward Foley, an expert in election law at Moritz College of Law at Ohio State University, pointed out to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, electors from around the country have to meet by December 19th to cast their electoral college votes.  To the extent recounts in WI, MI and PA have not been completed by that time, which experts assign a high probability that they will not, there is a chance that the electoral votes from those three states wouldn’t be counted leaving neither candidate with the required electoral votes to win the presidency (electoral count would be Trump 260 versus Hillary 232). 

    If the electoral college process fails to select a President then the election would be left in the hands of Congress to decide.  Given that the Senate and House are both controlled by Republicans, in theory they would then choose Trump/Pence, though in this election cycle nothing is a certainty.  Moreover, even if Trump/Pence are chosen, the whole process of being appointed by Congress, combined with a loss of the popular vote, would then cast a dark shadow over their administration.

    Wisconsin’s recount will likely begin late next week, once the state has tallied a cost estimate and received payment from Stein’s campaign, said Michael Haas, administrator of the Wisconsin Elections Commission.

     

    Political scientist Barry Burden, the director of the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said it would be extremely difficult to complete the recount on time.

     

    “You may potentially have the state electoral votes at stake if it doesn’t get done by then,” said Haas.

     

    A lawyer with Stein’s campaign has said it wants the recount done by hand. That would take longer and require a judge’s order, Haas said.

     

    Perhaps the most important deadline is Dec. 19, when electors around the country must meet to cast their Electoral College votes, said Edward Foley, an expert in election law at Moritz College of Law at Ohio State University.

     

    “That is a hard deadline and if a state were to miss that deadline, it would be technically in jeopardy of not having its electoral votes counted,” he said.

    Of course, if this theory is even partially true then it’s extremely disturbing on a variety of levels. That a person with absolutely no standing. in terms of personal damages, and no presentation of credible evidence of wrongdoing could unilaterally disrupt a presidential election is not only a failure of Stein’s personal character but it’s a failure of our election rules and procedures that such reckless behavior would be permitted.   

  • Up To Eight Italian Banks May Fail If Renzi Loses Referendum

    Just as we were concluding our write up on the return of Europe’s solvency crisis, facilitated by Donald Trump’s NATO funding demands and the end of the ECB’s unprecedented can kicking exercise, the FT reported that as many as eight of Italy’s troubled banks “risk failing” if prime minister Renzi loses next weekend’s constitutional referendum and ensuing market turbulence deters investors from recapitalizing them, citing senior bankers.

    This particular rather adverse outcome is captured by the lower-right, glowing red box in the Danske Research flowchart shown below

    Renzi, who has previous said he will quit if he loses the referendum although has since changed his tune, has championed a market solution to solve the problems of Italy’s €4tn banking system and avoid a vote-losing “resolution” of Italian banks under new EU rules. A resolution restructures and, if necessary, winds up a bank by imposing losses on both equity and debt investors, particularly controversial in Italy, where millions of individual investors have bought bank bonds.

    The following chart from the ECB demonstrates why a bail-in of Italian banks would be the equivalent of political suicide: the vast majority of bail-inable Italian debt is held domestically, read savers and pensioners. Should they be impaired, it would lead to an overnight social crisis.

     

    However, if Renzi is already on his way out post a “No” vote, which most polls have assured is the most likely outcome, he will have far less motivation to seek a private bail-out, making a bail-in far more likely, boosting the chances of an adverse social reaction. As the FT adds, in the event of a “No” vote and Mr Renzi’s exit, bankers fear protracted uncertainty during the creation of a technocratic government. Lack of clarity over a new finance minister may lethally prolong market jitters about Italy’s banks. Italian lenders have more than halved in value this year on concerns about their non-performing loans.

    For those who have followed the neverending saga of Italy’s insolvent banks, the details are familiar: the “boot” has eight banks known to be in various stages of distress: its third largest by assets, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, mid-sized banks Popolare di Vicenza, Veneto Banca and Carige, and four small banks rescued last year: Banca Etruria, CariChieti, Banca delle Marche, and CariFerrara.

    As warned here since 2011, the biggest problem facing Italy’s (and Europe’s banks) is the inordinate share of NPLs: Italy’s banks have €360bn of problem loans versus €225bn of equity on their books after successive regulators and governments failed to tackle a bloated financial system where profitability was weakened by a stagnant economy and exacerbated by fraudulent lending at several institutions.

    The problem is that a market rescue of the insolvent banks has proven nearly impossible due to fears over the full magnitude of the bad debt problem: 

    But the market solutions, including a JPMorgan plan to recapitalise Monte Paschi and the efforts of a government-sponsored private vehicle Atlante to backstop problems at smaller banks, are looking shaky in the face of expected market turbulence if a “No” vote wins, said officials and bankers.

     

    Lorenzo Codogno, a former chief economist at the Italian Treasury and founder of LC Macro Advisors, argued that the “biggest concern” in the aftermath of the referendum is its impact on “the banking sector and implications for financial stability”.

     

    “The capital increases of Italian banks due to be announced right after the referendum may become even trickier than currently perceived in the case of a “No” vote”,” Mr Codogno said.

    What is the worst case scenario (for now)? The answer: the third consecutive failure of Monte Paschi (which would likely have significant downstream consequences on all other Italian banks). Senior bankers and officials said that the worst-case scenario was where a failure of Monte Paschi’s complex €5bn recapitalisation and bad-debt restructuring demanded by regulators would translate into a wider failure of confidence in Italy and imperil a market solution for its ailing banks.

    Under this scenario, officials and senior bankers believe that all eight banks could be put into resolution. They fear that contagion from the small banks could threaten a €13bn capital increase at UniCredit, Italy’s largest bank by assets and its only globally significant financial institution, planned for early 2017.

    Should the Monte Paschi bailout deal fail, “all theories are possible” including “a resolution of the eight banks”, especially if a “No” vote led to Mr Renzi quitting office and a period of protracted political uncertainty, according to the FT. Indeed, the prospectus for the recapitalisation of Monte Paschi, which includes a debt for equity swap that begins on Monday, warns that the vote weighs on its chances of success. The Bank of Italy has warned of market volatility around the vote. Critics of Mr Renzi have accused the central bank of fear-mongering ahead of the vote.

    No matter what, a renewed focus on BMPS would likely be the catalyst for the next Italian, and shortly after, Europen banking crisis. At that point the Italian dominos would – once again – be in free fall.

    To be sure, the market has already sniffed out much of the risks with spreads on Italian government bonds versus German Bunds rising above 190 points on Friday, a level not seen since October 2014, as markets priced in expectations of turbulence.

    One possibility is bailing out any domestic investors who get bailed in as a last ditch workaround to prevent a full-blown banking panic:

    Bankers and officials can envisage a technocratic government agreeing with Brussels and Frankfurt a systemic “bail-in” of vulnerable Italian banks which emerged among Europe’s weakest in stress tests two years ago and again this summer. Under a bail-in, which forces losses on bond holders, Brussels could allow for some compensation for vulnerable retail investors, officials said.

    Germany, however, would be less than enthused by such an outcome. Unfortunately, no matter the political framworks, Italy’s banks are only going to deteriorate following next Sunday’s vote:

    Nicolas Véron, senior fellow at think tank Bruegel, argued that “if anything the ECB has been very lenient in addressing the system-wide banking situation [in Italy] that has been very visible since the comprehensive assessment two years ago”. “It is a very difficult moment but it is not sustainable. The problem of banking fragility is not going away. It is not something that resolves itself with time,” Mr Veron said.

    All hope is not lost, however. The Economist, the once reputable economic and financial publication half-owned by the Rothschilds, has had a terrible track record of advising its declining readers on how to vote in critical political events: from urging a “Bremain” vote this past June, to begging for a vote for Hillary on November 8, the Economist has gotten virtually every major political event wrong. Which is why the fact that over the weekend the publication came out with an article “Why Italy should vote no in its referendum” may be the best hope Renzi has to remain in power.

  • Trump And Draghi May Bring A Return Of The "European Solvency Crisis": Barclays

    Since Drahi’s infamous “whatever it takes” warning in the summer of 2012, European bond yields have been a one way street lower, and until the recent Trumpflation rally, had tumbled to all time lows, in many cases well below 0%.  There are two catalysts, however, that may be ending Europe’s QE-driven free ride, and according to a recent report by Barclays, their names are Donald Trump and Mario Draghi.

    First, when looking at the impact of Trump, Barclays notes that his election as US president may have created an additional burden on European budgets: defence spending.

    The president-elect has suggested that European NATO members should reach the 2% GDP military spending target, as pledged under the NATO treaty. In 2015, the 22 EU countries that are also NATO members spent on average only 1.4% of GDP on defence, or 1.3% excluding the UK, while the US spent 3.6%. This is a shortfall of USD94bn, or 0.7% of the total GDP of EU-NATO members.

    Those countries whose debt to GDP ratios already exceed 100% (Italy, Spain and Portugal) are also the ones with low defence spending and would need to add 0.7-1.1% of GDP in defence spending if they were to reach the 2% target as shown in the figure below.

    In Trump carried out his threat and enforced a mandatory topping of contributions, and Italy had to boost its annual defence spending permanently to 2% of GDP (all else equal), its primary surplus would more than halve, from 1.7% currently to 0.7% of GDP. For France, Fillon and Juppe are arguing to increase military spending progressively to 2% of GDP by 2025, while they do not envisage any significant change in stance towards NATO.

    It’s not just Trump’s NATO policies: there is also the impact of the ECB’s QE which sooner or later will be tapered off. That, however, will result in the tide going out, and exposing just how naked Europe’s economies have been all along.

    As Barclays also writes, “the ECB‘s QE has been an important driver of EA growth and public debt dynamics, but at the cost of moral hazard.”

     Barclays finds that QE-generated growth, more so than low interest rates, has significantly contributed to a slowdown in the rise of the public debt, particularly in Italy and Spain. As shown in Figure 2, public debt would have risen an alarming 12% in these countries without QE.

    The British bank’s analysis also suggests that those countries with the most significant bond market pressure also pursued the most reforms. But rather than using the temporary relief created by QE to reform and repay public debt, fiscal policy in Italy and Spain became expansionary and reforms ground to a halt. In other words, as we warned all along, all QE does is kick the ball into the ECB’s court, while giving lazy, incompetent politicians the justification to do, well, nothing – certainly nothing that may threaten their careers – and simply watch as the stock maret rises, giving the false impression that “things are good.”

    Debt sustainability issues will likely therefore resurface not only due to higher interest but also, critically, because long-term growth prospects are poor without reforms, and it is now entirely recognized that it was the ECB’s fault why Europe’s nations – all badly in need of structural reform – abandoned all such efforts; after all why bother when “Mr. Chairman will get to work.”

    Here are Barclay’s details on why solvency concerns will re-emerge for Europe the moment Draghi even whispers a hint that QE is about to get tapered, let along end:

    With funding costs at historical lows and QE expected to remain in place for the foreseeable future, few investors are worrying about the long-term sovereign solvency of the euro area. But this could change. Draghi reminded us of the obvious in September, namely that “QE is not forever”. When the tide turns, many euro area sovereigns may very well be confronted with higher “r-g”, not only because of higher r (as monetary policy tightens) but, critically, because of low g, as long-term growth prospects are dismal without reforms.

     

    Compounding the problem of sensitivity to the assumptions (for r and g) is the issue of interdependence across variables. Primary balances and fiscal stances in general affect both interest rates and growth rates while growth rates affect the fiscal performance. If it is indeed the case that low interest rates – supported by ultra-accommodative monetary policy – delays necessary fiscal consolidation and supply-side reforms, arguably low r means low future g. Growth plays a critical role into debt dynamics through direct and indirect effects: the largest public debt contribution of QE came from the growth channel. If our assessment is correct, and governments fail to raise the long-run growth rates of their economies owing to complacency, it is plausible that the European economy will remain stuck in a low-growth equilibrium, where permanent QE is required to keep funding costs down, which coincidentally leads to delay in important reforms.

    There is another problem, in fact the biggest problem of all from day one: massive debt loads, which were never reduced in the aftermath of the great financial crisis, and which need soaring prices to be reflated away, however in the process of rising rates, those same debt balances effectively assures a financial crisis. Quote Barclays:

    The political landscape across the euro area argues against very high primary balances; in fact, we have seen how the primary balance has recently worsened and fiscal accommodation has increased. For Italy, public debt is currently at 134% of GDP, the primary balance at 1.5% of GDP, nominal r is at c. 3.2% and g is c. 1.5% (i.e., r-g = 1.7%). A small increase of r-g to say 2 or 2.5% would put debt/GDP along a rapidly growing path.

     

    In theory high debts do not necessarily imply a sovereign crisis, especially if the government spends its money wisely and collects taxes efficiently. But if it does not, solvency concerns could re-emerge, sovereign interest rates quickly rise above the average funding costs, and the 2010-11 adverse market dynamics could return. The big difference is that this time there would be far less monetary, fiscal, and political space to confront them.

    Two conclusions: i) as Barclays puts it, “the great fiscal success of QE could therefore turn out to be its biggest downfall in due course” and ii) everything that has happened since Draghi’s infamous “whatever it takes” gambit nearly 5 years ago, has been one great can-kicking detour, and the moment he market even gets a whiff that Draghi will punt on record QE, Europe’s crisis is back with a bang.

    On, and there is the whole “Trump” wildcard, not only as a result the wildcards from his NATO funding policies, but also because should the global reflation scare accelerate, then the ECB may have no choice but to tighten/taper/end QE sooner than anticipated as inflation worries spread to Europe, which in turn will catalyze the next leg of the Europea solvency crisis, which is inevitable as Europe failed miserably to engage in reform in the five years since Draghi’s words pushed European interest rates to all time lows.

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