Today’s News 27th November 2016

  • The Washington Post: Useful-Idiot Shills For A Failed, Frantic Status Quo That Has Lost Control Of The Narrative

    Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

    Don't you think it fair and reasonable that anyone accusing me of being a shill for Russian propaganda ought to read my ten books in their entirety and identify the sections that support their slanderous accusation?

    I was amused to find my site listed on the now-infamous list of purportedly Russian-controlled propaganda sites cited by The Washington Post. I find it amusing because I invite anyone to search my 3,600-page archive of published material over the past decade (which includes some guest posts and poems) and identify a single pro-Russia or pro-Russian foreign policy entry.

    If anything, my perspective is pro-US dollar, pro-liberty, pro-open markets, pro-local control, pro-free-press, pro-innovation, and pro-opportunities to rebuild America's abandoned, decaying localized economies: in other words, the exact opposite of Russian propaganda.

    My "crime" is a simple one: challenging the ruling elite's narrative. Labeling all dissent "enemy propaganda" is of course the classic first phase of state-sponsored propaganda and the favorite tool of well-paid illiberal apologists for an illiberal regime.

    Labeling everyone who dissents or questions the ruling elite's narrative as tools of an enemy power is classic McCarthy-era witch-hunting, i.e. a broad-brush way of marginalizing and silencing critics with an accusation that is easy to fabricate but difficult to prove.

    Such unsupported slander is a classic propaganda technique. It has more in common with Nazi propaganda than with real journalism.

    The real useful-idiot shills are the editors and hacks paid by the Washington Post, who are busy penning articles such as "Why the electoral college should choose Hillary Clinton". Isn't this fundamentally a call to over-ride the Constitutional framework of the republic's democracy?

    In other words, the ruling elite's candidate lost, so let's subvert democracy to "right this terrible wrong" that was wrought by fed-up debt-serfs.

    Substitution is a useful technique to reveal propaganda: if Trump had lost by a thin margin, would the The Washington Post publish an article "Why the electoral college should choose Donald Trump"?

    Any site suggesting such an outlandish subversion of American democracy would of course by labeled Russian-controlled propaganda by The Washington Post. In other words, it's OK for the organs of Imperial Propaganda to call for the subversion of the Constitution, but if someone else dares to do so, you know the drill: they're labeled a tool of Russian propaganda.

    Just as a reminder, this is the status quo / ruling elite's handiwork The Washington Post shills/propagandists support: a status quo of institutionalized privilege, corruption and systemically soaring wealth and income inequality:

    The institutionalized impoverishment of non-elite students:

    The institutionalized impoverishment of the bottom 99.9%:

    The institutionalized impoverishment of everyone below the protected technocrat-insider class of shills, apparatchiks and professionals:

    This is what The Washington Post is pushing: a parasitic, predatory, exploitive, ruinously corrupt and venal ruling class and its army of apologists/lackeys/factotums.

    The fundamental source of the Post's hysterical accusations is the ruling elite has lost control of the narrative. This is the source of the mainstream media's angst-tinged hysteria and frantic efforts to marginalize and discredit any dissenting narratives that undermine or question the power of a corrupted, self-serving ruling elite that has failed the nation and its citizens.

    This is why Donald Trump was routinely labeled a Russian shill by the mainstream media during the campaign. Regardless of what you think of Trump or Clinton, what can we say about a supposedly responsible media that so cavalierly spews fact-free accusations of foreign control? This is the height of irresponsible propaganda being passed off as "journalism."

    Free speech implicitly carries the responsibility of the reader/listener/viewer to make a critical assessment of the content, its source and its aim: who benefits if we accept the narrative being pushed?

    The delicious irony of The Washington Post's hysterical campaign to smear dissenters as tools of Russian propaganda is that it only serves to discredit the Post itself. For my part, I invite you to read all ten of my books and make your own critical assessment of the content and answer these questions:

    1. Did you find even a single passage in the thousands of pages that favored Russian policies?

    2. Did you find any passages that favored domestic resilience and self-reliance, localized economic development, and the promotion of innovations that favored the many rather than the few?

    3. Don't you think it fair and reasonable that anyone accusing me of being a shill for Russian propaganda ought to read my ten books in their entirety and identify the sections that support their slanderous accusation?

    If they can't support it, then isn't their accusation the very propaganda they claim to be identifying?

    Just as a reminder: here's my chart of the Ministry of Propaganda (from 2007):

    When Does "Managed Perception" Become Reality? (May 1, 2011)

    *  *  *

    Join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com. My new book is #8 on Kindle short reads -> politics and social science: Why Our Status Quo Failed and Is Beyond Reform ($3.95 Kindle ebook, $8.95 print edition) For more, please visit the book's website.

  • College Students Demand Police Investigate "Suck It Up, Pussies" Post-It Note As Hate Crime

    Today we learn of yet another campus full of disaffected Hillary snowflakes who were triggered by a post-it note suggesting that they should stop whining about the election and just “suck it up, pussies.”  This latest example comes to us from Edgewood College in the ultra-liberal bastion of Madison, Wisconsin via Campus Reform.

    Apparently the simple post-it note was determined to be a “hate crime” by the college’s “diversity offices” and students with knowledge of the incident were encouraged to contact campus police.  To our complete shock, a message from Edgewood’s Vice President for Student Development pinned the blame for the “hate crime” on Trump, saying that it is part of a growing trend of “covert micro-aggressions and overt macro-aggressions” that have “taken on new fervor in higher education since our national election.”

    “Over the past week, there have been increasing reports of hateful acts on college and university campuses across the country.  Covert micro-aggressions and overt macro-aggressions appear to have taken on new fervor in higher education since our national election.  The frequency, boldness, and severity with which hateful acts have been occurring has, for many, signaled a new era of intolerance, fear, and mistrust in higher education.”

     

    “A great deal of fear, sadness, and anger among students, faculty, and staff resulted, especially for those that gather in the [office space].  The message was hateful and harmful toward members of our community. It violated every value that this institution considers to be at its core.”

    Here is the full letter sent to Edgewood students:

    Post iT

     

    In conclusion, we would simply say:

    Suck It Up

  • Even Obama Slams Stein's Recounts: The Results "Accurately Reflect The Will Of The American People"

    Jill Stein’s credibility seems to be sinking fast as both the Obama administration and the Clinton campaign have released statements this morning indicating they’ve failed to uncover a single shred of election hacking evidence.  The Obama administration confirmed their confidence in the election results via comments made to the New York Times saying that the election was “free and fair from a cybersecurity perspective” and that votes “accurately reflect the will of the American people.”

    The Obama administration said on Friday that despite Russian attempts to undermine the presidential election, it has concluded that the results “accurately reflect the will of the American people.”

     

    The statement came as liberal opponents of Donald J. Trump, some citing fears of vote hacking, are seeking recounts in three states — Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — where his margin of victory was extremely thin.

     

    In its statement, the administration said, “The Kremlin probably expected that publicity surrounding the disclosures that followed the Russian government-directed compromises of emails from U.S. persons and institutions, including from U.S. political organizations, would raise questions about the integrity of the election process that could have undermined the legitimacy of the president-elect.”

     

    That was a reference to the breach of the Democratic National Committee’s email system, and the leak of emails from figures like John D. Podesta, Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman.

     

    “Nevertheless, we stand behind our election results, which accurately reflect the will of the American people,” it added.

     

    The recount efforts have generated pushback by experts who said it would be enormously difficult to hack voting machines on a large scale. The administration, in its statement, confirmed reports from the Department of Homeland Security and intelligence officials that they did not see “any increased level of malicious cyberactivity aimed at disrupting our electoral process on Election Day.”

     

    The administration said it remained “confident in the overall integrity of electoral infrastructure, a confidence that was borne out.” It added: “As a result, we believe our elections were free and fair from a cybersecurity perspective.”

    Hillary

     

    The statement from the White House was followed by a statement from Hillary’s general counsel, Marc Elias, who confirmed that they too “had not uncovered any actionable evidence of hacking or outside attempts to alter the voting technology.”

    Because we had not uncovered any actionable evidence of hacking or outside attempts to alter the voting technology, we had not planned to exercise this option ourselves, but now that a recount has been initiated in Wisconsin, we intend to participate in order to ensure the process proceeds in a manner that is fair to all sides. If Jill Stein follows through as she has promised and pursues recounts in Pennsylvania and Michigan, we will take the same approach in those states as well. We do so fully aware that the number of votes separating Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in the closest of these states—Michigan—well exceeds the largest margin ever overcome in a recount.

    Of course, while Stein reiterated numerous allegations of foreign
    hacking that were well circulated, yet never officially linked to a specific source, before the election, her petition didn’t offer a single shred of actual, tangible evidence that the election results in Wisconsin were in anyway tampered with. 

    In August 2016, it was widely reported that foreign operators breached voter registration databases in at least two states and stole hundreds of thousands of voter records.

     

    Around that time, hacker infiltrated the e-mail systems of the Democratic National Committee and a campaign official for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.  These e-mails were then published online. 

     

    On October 7, 2016, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence on Election Security issued a joint statement regarding these breaches.  The statement reads, in pertinent part, as follows:  “The U.S. Intelligence Community (USCI) is confident” that there have been “recent compromises of e-mails from US persons and institutions, including from US political organizations.”  It also states that “[t]here thefts and disclosures are intended to interfere with the US election process” and that “similar tactics and techniques [have been used] across Europe and Eurasia…to influence public opinion there.”  In the statement, DHS urges state election officials “to be vigilant and seek cybersecurity assistance” from that agency in preparation for the presidential election.

     

    In Wisconsin, there is evidence of voting irregularities in the 2016 presidential election that indicate potential tampering with electronic voting systems.  Specifically, there was a significant increase in the number of absentee voters as compared to the last general election.  This significant increase could be attributed to a breach of the state’s electronic voter database.

     

    The well-documented and conclusive evidence of foreign interference in the presidential race before the election, along with the irregularities observed in Wisconsin, call into question the results and indicate the possibility that a widespread breach occurred.

    Jill Stein

     

    Even her so-called “computer science expert” offered up nothing more than baseless theories on “plausible” explanations of how the Wisconsin results may have been hacked.  Sure, because it’s just so impossible to believe that a flawed candidate with multiple ongoing FBI criminal investigations may have simply lost the election.   

    WI

     

    So, the question becomes how will Jill Stein respond now that the establishment seems to be turning on her and what exactly will happen to the $5.8mm she raised if recount efforts are suspended?  Somehow we suspect the disaffected Hillary donors won’t simply get their money back.

    JS

    * * *

    As an update, after coming under attack from almost everyone today for her unfounded recount crusade, Jill Stein has lashed out against her critics with a tweet storm of her own.  Among other things, Stein vowed to file recount petitions in any state where the applicable deadlines had not passed and lashed out at the other parties for not participating amid “so many questionable results.” Might we respectfully suggest, Ms. Stein, that more people may take an interest in your efforts if you could offer up a single shred of evidence to support your wild accusations.

     

    Apparently, suggestions that Stein is merely serving as a pawn of the Clinton campaign also struck a nerve.

     

    Finally, perhaps the following tweet sums up the whole ludicrous situation the best:

  • More Lies From The 'Experts': "Get Trump At All Costs"

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    As flyover America has been suffering economically for many years, these Americans were immune to the oligarchy’s anti-Trump propaganda. However, everyone else in the country was taken in by the propaganda – liberals, progressives, the remnant of the leftwing, and even Patrick Martin of the World Socialist Web Site who normally writes intelligent commentary.

    Like Green candidate Jill Stein, Patrick Martin wants a vote recount that could be manipulated to put Hillary in the White House. Apparently, Martin is unfamiliar with Hillary and her record of war crimes. Instead of expressing relief that the agent of the military/security complex, who has threatened military action against Russia and demonizes the Russian president as “the new Hitler,” was not elected, Martin unloads on Trump who has stated his goal of reduced tensions between nuclear powers. Trump’s government, Martin writes, “will undoubtedly be the most reactionary, militaristic and dictatorial government in American history.”

    If war and dictatorship aren’t enough, Daniel Altman tells us that Trump will bankrupt us as well. We are on our way to debtors’ prison, says Daniel Altman in Foreign Policy:

    Americans already know what happens when this strategy comes to Washington. Reagan and the younger Bush let the nation live beyond its means, too, stealing from legions of unborn Americans to fund their grand ideas. They also stole from as-yet unelected presidents; whoever followed them in power would be the ones to pay the piper. Their own party would return when times were good again.

     

    A combination of rapidly rising deficits and higher interest rates could make the nation’s debt unsustainable even within Trump’s four-year term — and that’s if his stimulus works. If he stays true to his record in business, another bankruptcy could be on the horizon. This time, though, there won’t be any second chances, and all Americans will be left holding the bag.

    Altman doesn’t seem to know any more about his subject than Martin knows about Hillary. Altman writes as if the tax and spending policies of Ronald Reagan and “the younger Bush” are responsible for the national debt by letting the nation “live beyond its means, stealing from legions of unborn Americans to fund their grand ideas.”

    As economist J.W. Mason has shown, Reagan did not increase the national debt. During the Reagan years, the growth in the national debt was due to the high interest rates imposed by the Federal Reserve (in my opinion in the Establishment’s attempt to wreck the Reagan program).
    Mason shows that it was the Fed-imposed increase in interest rates on the debt that raised the national debt.

    The standard historical narrative about President Ronald Reagan's budgets goes like this: He slashed taxes for the rich, spent a ton of money on the military, and the national debt exploded.

     

    Now, that is a fair description of his policies. But it turns out Reagan may have gotten a bad rap on the debt charge.

     

    In fact, the major culprit was another, often overlooked player: interest payments. Just why exactly this happened is extremely interesting, and also carries very important lessons for budgetary and monetary policy today. Put short, the conventional wisdom about debt and monetary policy is almost entirely wrong.

     

    So when centrist types argue for austerity or greater interest rates as some kind of self-evident proposition, remember Reagan's bum rap. Remember, too, that the whole point of all this budget and monetary policy is to facilitate the business of human life, and not the other way around.

    In contrast, despite the Fed’s accommodation of the Oligarchy’s puppet, Obama, with zero interest rates, holds the record for the greatest increase in US national debt.

    Obama added $8 trillion dollars to the national debt…:

    One way to measure the debt by President is to sum all his budget deficits.

     

    That's because the President is responsible for his budget priorities. Each year's deficit takes into account budgeted spending and anticipated revenue from proposed tax cuts or hikes.

     

    But there's a difference between the deficit and the debt by President.

     

    That's because all Presidents can employ a sleight of hand to reduce the appearance of the deficit. They can borrow internally from other government sources. For example, the Social Security Trust Fund has run a surplus since 1987. That's because there were more working people contributing via payroll taxes than retired people withdrawing benefits. The Fund invests its surplus in U.S. Treasury notes. The President can reduce the deficit by spending these funds instead of issuing new Treasuries.

     

    *  *  *

     

    Barack Obama – The national debt grew the most dollar-wise during President Obama's two terms. He added $7.917 trillion, a 68 percent increase, in seven years. Obama's budgets included the economic stimulus package. It added $787 billion by cutting taxes, extending unemployment benefits, and funding job-creating public works projects. The Obama tax cuts added $858 billion to the debt in two years. Obama's budget included increased defense spending to between $700 billion and $800 billion a year.

     

    Federal income was down, thanks to lower tax receipts from the 2008 financial crisis. He also sponsored the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. It was designed to reduce the debt by $143 billion over ten years. But these savings didn't show up until the later years. For more, see National Debt Under Obama.

     

    George W. Bush – President Bush added the second greatest amount to the debt, at $5.849 trillion. But that was a 101 percent increase to the debt. It was $5.8 trillion on September 30, 2001. That's the end of FY 2001, which was President Clinton's last budget. Bush responded to the 9/11 attacks by launching the War on Terror. That drove military spending to record levels of between $600-$800 billion a year. It included the Iraq War, which cost $807.5 billion. President Bush also responded to the 2001 recession by passing EGTRRA and JGTRRA. These were known as the Bush tax cuts and they further reduced revenue. He approved a $700 billion bailout package for banks to combat the 2008 global financial crisis.  Both Presidents Bush and Obama had to contend with higher mandatory spending for Social Security and Medicare. For more, see President Obama Compared to President Bush Policies.

     

    Franklin D. Roosevelt – President Roosevelt increased the debt the most percentage-wise. Although he only added $236 billion, this was a 1,048 percent increase over the $23 billion debt level left by President Hoover's last budget. Of course, the Great Depression took an enormous bite out of revenues. The New Deal cost billions. But FDR's debt major contribution to the debt was World War II spending. He added $209 billion to the debt between 1942-1945. For more, see FDR Economic Policies.

     

    Woodrow Wilson – President Wilson was the second largest contributor to the debt percentage-wise. Although he only added $21 billion, this was a 727 percent increase over the $2.9 billion debt level of his predecessor. Wilson had to pay for World War I. In fact, the Second Liberty Bond Act was enacted during his Presidency, giving Congress the right to adopt the national debt ceiling.

    So, simply put, the leftist lies continue in their effort to besmirch the president-elect "at all costs."

  • These Are The 48 Organizations That Now Have Access To Every Brit's Browsing History

    Last week, in a troubling development for privacy advocates everywhere, we reported that the UK has passed the “snooper charter” effectively ending all online privacy. Now, the mainstream media has caught on and appears to be displeased. As AP writes today, “after months of wrangling, Parliament has passed a contentious new snooping law that gives authorities — from police and spies to food regulators, fire officials and tax inspectors — powers to look at the internet browsing records of everyone in the country.”

    For those who missed our original reports, here is the new law in a nutshell: it requires telecom companies to keep records of all users’ web activity for a year, creating databases of personal information that the firms worry could be vulnerable to leaks and hackers. Civil liberties groups say the law establishes mass surveillance of British citizens, following innocent internet users from the office to the living room and the bedroom. They are right.

    While Edward Snowden previously blasted the law, none other than Tim Berners-Lee, the man credited with inventing World Wide Web, tweeted news of the law’s passage with the words: “Dark, dark days.”

    Coming at a time when the mainstream media is lashing out at non-traditional websites, which it brands either with the derogatory “altright”, or simply slams as “Russian propaganda” to deflect from the fact that the MSM has been exposed as being a PR arm of the ruling establishment, the Investigatory Powers Bill-  called the “snoopers’ charter” by critics –  was passed by UK Parliament this month after more than a year of debate and amendments, and with its passage shifts “1984” from the fiction to the non-fiction section, as the formation of the surveillance police state is now effectively complete.

    The charter will become law when it receives the formality of royal assent next week but – as AP notes – big questions remain about how it will work, and the government acknowledges it could be 12 months before internet firms have to start storing the records.

    “It won’t happen in a big bang next week,” Home Office official Chris Mills told a meeting of internet service providers on Thursday. “It will be a phased program of the introduction of the measures over a year or so.”

    The government says the new law “ensures powers are fit for the digital age,” replacing a patchwork of often outdated rules and giving law-enforcement agencies the tools to fight terrorism and serious crime.

    In a move right out of the Soviet Union’s darkest days (which never even imagned central planning to the extent that modern “developed market” central bankers have unleashed this decade), the law requires telecommunications companies to store for a year the web histories known as internet connection records — a list of websites each person has visited and the apps and messaging services they used, though not the individual pages they looked at or the messages they sent.

    The government has called that information the modern equivalent of an itemized phone bill. But critics say it’s more like a personal diary. Julian Huppert, a former Liberal Democrat lawmaker who opposed the bill, said it “creates a very intrusive database.”

    “People may have been to the Depression Alliance website, or a marriage guidance website, or an abortion provider’s website, or all sorts of things which are very personal and private,” he said.

    Officials won’t need a warrant to access the data, and the list of bodies that can see it includes not just the police and intelligence services, but government departments, revenue and customs officials and even the Food Standards Agency. “My worry is partly about their access,” Huppert said. “But it’s much more deeply about the prospects for either hacking or people selling information on.”

    Even worse, the new law also makes official — and legal — British spies’ ability to hack into devices and harvest vast amounts of bulk online data, much of it from outside the U.K. In doing so, it both acknowledges and sets limits on the secretive mass-snooping schemes exposed by Edward Snowden.

    * * *

    Which government agencies have access to the internet history of any British citizen? Here is the answer courtesy of blogger Chris Yuo, who has compiled the list:

    • Metropolitan police force
    • City of London police force
    • Police forces maintained under section 2 of the Police Act 1996
    • Police Service of Scotland
    • Police Service of Northern Ireland
    • British Transport Police
    • Ministry of Defence Police
    • Royal Navy Police
    • Royal Military Police
    • Royal Air Force Police
    • Security Service
    • Secret Intelligence Service
    • GCHQ
    • Ministry of Defence
    • Department of Health
    • Home Office
    • Ministry of Justice
    • National Crime Agency
    • HM Revenue & Customs
    • Department for Transport
    • Department for Work and Pensions
    • NHS trusts and foundation trusts in England that provide ambulance services
    • Common Services Agency for the Scottish Health Service
    • Competition and Markets Authority
    • Criminal Cases Review Commission
    • Department for Communities in Northern Ireland
    • Department for the Economy in Northern Ireland
    • Department of Justice in Northern Ireland
    • Financial Conduct Authority
    • Fire and rescue authorities under the Fire and Rescue Services Act 2004
    • Food Standards Agency
    • Food Standards Scotland
    • Gambling Commission
    • Gangmasters and Labour Abuse Authority
    • Health and Safety Executive
    • Independent Police Complaints Commissioner
    • Information Commissioner
    • NHS Business Services Authority
    • Northern Ireland Ambulance Service Health and Social Care Trust
    • Northern Ireland Fire and Rescue Service Board
    • Northern Ireland Health and Social Care Regional Business Services Organisation
    • Office of Communications
    • Office of the Police Ombudsman for Northern Ireland
    • Police Investigations and Review Commissioner
    • Scottish Ambulance Service Board
    • Scottish Criminal Cases Review Commission
    • Serious Fraud Office
    • Welsh Ambulance Services National Health Service Trust

    In other words, everyone.

    * * *

    While privacy groups unsucessfully battled to stop the new legislation, and now will challenge it in court, public opposition has been largely muted in part because the bill’s passage has been overshadowed by Britain’s vote to leave the European Union and the scandalous upheaval that has followed.

    How did that old saying go… “don’t let a crisis go to waste.” Well, the UK is now independent from Europe, and in the process its population quietly lost all of its internet privacy.

    Renate Samson, chief executive of the group Big Brother Watch, said it would take time for the full implications of the law to become clear to the public.

    “We now live in a digital world. We are digital citizens,” Samson said. “We have no choice about whether or not we engage online. This bill has fundamentally changed how we are able to privately and securely communicate with one another, communicate with business, communicate with government and live an online life. And that’s a real, profound concern.”

    It remains to be seen if the UK’s citizens will be able overturn the law once it does become clear to the public what has just happened.

  • Who Pays What Taxes In The US

    Every presidential election brings with it a renewed debate on taxes: should tax rates be increased or decreased (which in turn forces economists to break out their textbooks to brush up on their Laffer curve definitions)? Traditionally, the question eventually boils down to one thing: what should the tax treatment of the “rich” be: should the wealthy pay more or less in taxes?

    Why the particular focus on the rich? The answer is simple: while those American who declare $500,000 and above in income represent less than 1% of total tax returns, they account for a quarter of taxable income and – more importantly – are responsible for 37% of government revenues collected through individual income taxes.

    And with approximately $1.55 trillion in individual income tax expected to be collected in 2016, this means that less than 1% of US taxpayers will be responsible for more than a third, or roughly $575 billion in government revenue, nearly double what corporate income taxes ($300 billion) are expected to bring in.

    To any readers surprised by this, here are further details from the St Louis Fed’s Fernando Martin and his recent note “A Closer Look at Federal Taxes

    * * *

    The first table provides a snapshot of revenues collected by the U.S. federal government for fiscal year 2016. Total revenue was $3.3 trillion, or roughly 18 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Almost half of this revenue comes from individual income taxes. About one-third comes from payroll taxes, which are collected to fund Social Security, Medicare, and other social insurance benefits. Only 9 percent of total revenue comes from corporate income taxes, while another 9 percent comes from various sources (e.g., excise taxes, estate and gift taxes, and custom duties). These proportions have been stable in recent years.

    Given the prominent role individual income taxes play in financing the federal government, this essay inspects these taxes in more detail. The second table breaks down individual income taxes by adjusted gross income brackets and four categories. The first three are relative to total filings: the share of returns; the share of taxable income generated (note that about one-third of returns report zero taxable income); and the share of tax revenue collected. The final category is the implied average tax rate. The data are for fiscal year 2014, the latest available for tax revenue by income levels. Notably, the data do not distinguish between single or joint (filed with a spouse) tax returns.

    The differences in individual income tax collection at the extremes of the income distribution are striking. Filers earning less than $50,000 annually account for nearly two-thirds of all tax returns but contribute 7 percent of total revenue. Around half of the filers in this group report zero taxable income4; for those with taxable income, the average income tax rate is 12 percent.5 In contrast, filers making at least $1 million annually account for 0.3 percent of all tax returns and contribute 27 percent of total revenue. Their average tax rate—31 percent—is almost triple that of filers in the lowest income bracket.

    Due to the progressive nature of the U.S. income tax code, average tax rates increase up the income ladder. Each income group’s contribution to total revenue, however, depends not only on their tax rate but also on the number of filers in the group and how much income they generate. For example, tax filers earning between $100,000 and $199,999 annually face an average income tax rate of 17 percent but contribute 22 percent of revenue, very close to the proportion contributed by those earning $1 million or more. The reason is that there are many more filers in the former group (12 percent versus 0.3 percent), who together generate about one-quarter of total taxable income (versus 17 percent for the highest earners).

    These properties of the income distribution have profound implications for the likely effects of tax reform. For example, tax cuts for the middle class, even minor ones, would imply big declines in revenue; and collecting significantly more revenue from the rich would necessitate large tax hikes.

    To illustrate this point, consider a simple back-of-the-envelope calculation. Suppose the desire is to cover the deficit by increasing the tax rates of the top income earners. The current deficit estimate for fiscal year 2016 is $590 billion. Income taxes collected from filers earning $500,000 or more annually (the top 1 percent) add up to roughly the same amount as the deficit. The tax rate of this group would need to double to collect enough revenue from the group to cover the deficit. Specifically, their average tax rate would need to increase from 30 percent to around 60 percent. A tax increase of this magnitude, however, might decrease the incentives for high-income earners to work as hard and encourage them to seek new ways to shield their income. Hence, in practice, the tax rate may need to be raised further and even then might not be enough to raise all the additional revenue.

    Individual income taxes only partially reveal how the burden of federal taxation is distributed among different income groups. For low-income earners, payroll taxes constitute a significant portion of tax liabilities. The current Social Security and Medicaid withholding rates are 6.20 percent and 1.45 percent, respectively (in addition, employers must also match these contributions). Thus, the average tax rate faced by an individual making less than $50,000 annually and reporting positive taxable income is 12 percent in income taxes plus 7.65 percent; that is, almost 20 percent of income. Since wages contribute less to total income for higher-income earners, payroll taxes play a less significant role at the top. In other words, payroll taxes are regressive. Note, however, that the benefits they provide are progressive, as-high income earners rely more heavily on other sources of funding for retirement and healthcare (e.g., a 401(k) retirement plan).

  • Iran Loses Nuclear Device, Sparks GCC Concerns

    The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is concerned over a missing radioactive device from Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor, Saudi-owned Arab newspaper Asharq al-Awsat reported on Thursday.

    Furthermore, as OilPrice.com's Tsvetana Paraskova notes, aside from the security concerns, at the forefront in the GCC’s mind is what impact the radioactive device – wherever it may be today – could have on water supplies.

    According to the newspaper, the device went missing after the car transporting it was stolen. Thankfully, the vehicle was recovered, but the radioactive nuclear device was not so lucky.

    The GCC has contacted the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) over the incident – both organizations are concerned that Iran’s nuclear program may pollute the waters in the Gulf, Asharq al-Awsat quoted GCC Emergency Management Center chairman, Adnan al-Tamimi, as saying.

    Most members of the GCC – which includes Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman – desalinate sea water from the Gulf. If contamination from the device were to reach desalination stations, an already critical situation becomes even more critical.

    The missing device is set to lose half of its power after 74 days of inactivity, Tamimi said, noting that it still should be handled with care even after that period.

    Speaking to Asharq al-Awsat, the Arab official criticized Iran’s low security and safety levels at the Bushehr reactor, adding that the lack of Iranian transparency about its nuclear program adds further concerns and anxiousness for the Arab Gulf states.

    Iran’s nuclear program has recently entered the spotlight again after Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election. In March of this year, Trump said in a speech addressing the American Israel Public Affairs Committee:

    “My number-one priority is to dismantle the disastrous deal with Iran.”

    If Trump were willing and able to deliver on that promise by tearing up the deal, Iran would once again impact the oil market, dragging down Iran’s oil exports from the near-pre-sanctions levels it has almost reached in recent months.

    Last week, the U.S. House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly in favor of extending the Iran Sanctions Act (ISA) from 1996 through December 31, 2026. The act—adopted long before the most recent international sanctions against Tehran—was aimed at punishing investments in the Iranian energy industry and deterring the country from pursuing the development of nuclear weapons.

    Last week’s bill to extend the ISA after its expiry next month still needs Senate approval and President Obama’s signature to become law.

  • Towards An 'America First' Trump Trade Policy

    Submitted by Patrick Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

    Donald Trump’s election triumph is among the more astonishing in history.

    Yet if he wishes to become the father of a new “America First” majority party, he must make good on his solemn promise:

    To end the trade deficits that have bled our country of scores of thousands of factories, and to create millions of manufacturing jobs in the USA.

    Fail here, and those slim majorities in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin disappear.

    The president-elect takes credit for jawboning William Clay Ford to keep his Lincoln plant in Louisville. He is now jawboning Carrier air conditioning to stay in Indiana and not move to Mexico.

    Good for him. But these are baby steps toward ending the $800 billion trade deficits in goods America runs annually, or bringing back factories and creating millions of new manufacturing jobs in the USA.

    The NAFTA Republicans tell us the plants and jobs are never coming back, that we live in a globalized world, that production will now be done where it can be done cheapest — in Mexico, China, Asia.

    Yet, on Nov. 8, Americans rejected this defeatism rooted in the tracts of 19th-century British scribblers and the ideology of 20th-century globalists like Woodrow Wilson and FDR.

    America responded to Trump’s call for a new nationalism rooted in the economic principles and patriotism of Hamilton and the men of Mount Rushmore: Washington, Lincoln, Jefferson and Theodore Roosevelt.

    The president-elect has declared the TPP dead, and says he and his negotiators will walk away rather than accept another NAFTA.

    Again, good, but again, not good enough, not nearly.

    The New International Economic Order imposed upon us for decades has to be overthrown.

    For the root cause of the trade deficits bleeding us lies in U.S. tax laws and trade policies that punish companies that stay in America and reward companies that move production overseas.

    Executives move plants to Mexico, Asia and China for the same reason U.S. industrialists moved plants from the Frost Belt to the Sun Belt. Given the lower wages and lighter regulations, they can produce more cheaply there.

    In dealing with advanced economies like Japan, Germany, and the EU, another critical factor is at work against us.

    Since the Kennedy Round of trade negotiations, 50 years ago, international trade deals have reduced tariffs to insignificance.

    But our trade rivals have replaced the tariffs with value-added taxes on imports from the USA. Even to belong to the EU, a country must have a VAT of at least 15 percent.

    As Kevin Kearns of the U.S. Business and Industry Council writes, Europeans have replaced tariffs on U.S. goods with a VAT on U.S. goods, while rebating the VAT on Europe’s exports to us.

    Some 160 countries impose VAT taxes. Along with currency manipulation, this is how European and Asian protectionists stick it to the Americans, whose armed forces have defended them for 60 years.

    We lose at trade negotiations, even before we sit down at the table, because our adversaries declare their VAT nonnegotiable. And we accept it.

    Trump has to persuade Congress to deal him and our trade negotiators our own high cards, without our having to go to the WTO and asking, “Mother, may I?”

    Like this writer, Kearns argues for an 18 percent VAT on all goods and services entering the United States. All tax revenue raised by the VAT — hundreds of billions — should be used to reduce U.S. taxes, beginning by ending the income tax on small business and reducing to the lowest rate in the advanced world the U.S. corporate income tax.

    The price of foreign-made goods in U.S. stores would rise, giving a competitive advantage to goods made in America. And with a border VAT of 18 percent, every U.S. corporate executive would have to consider the higher cost of leaving the United States to produce abroad.

    Every foreign manufacturer, to maintain free access to the U.S. market of $17 trillion, greatest on earth, would have to consider shifting production — factories, technology, jobs — to the USA.

    The incentive to produce abroad would diminish and disappear. The incentive to produce here would grow correspondingly.

    Inversions — U.S. companies seeking lower tax rates by moving to places like Ireland — would end. Foreign companies and banks would be clamoring to get into the United States.

    With a zero corporate tax, minority businesses would spring up. Existing businesses would have more cash to hire. America would shove China aside as the Enterprise Zone of the world.

    Most important, by having Americans buy more from each other, and rely more on each other for the necessities of life, U.S. trade and tax policies would work to create a greater interdependence among us, rather than pull us apart as they do today.

    Why not write new tax and trade laws that bring us together, recreating the one nation and people we once were — and can be again?

  • Risk Parity Funds Suffer Worst Month Since 2015 As Breadthless, Fearless Stock Market Soars

    The market moves since the US elections have been both big and surprising, and as JPMorgan notes, fund managers have been either too slow or too reluctant to jump into the Trump trade. However, algo-based Risk-Parity funds suffered the most with their biggest loss since Dec 2015 as market 'fear' tumbles to 9 month lows (and stocks are the most overbought in 13 years).

     

    Risk Parity funds were hurt as their equity gains were not enough to offset the sharp selloff in bonds on which Risk Parity funds are typically exposed by four times as much as equities. Correlation between stocks and bonds has normalized thanks to this huge post-Trump divergence (but we note the last time the regime shifted like this was ahead of August 2015's equity plunge)…

     

    U.S. stock markets are signaling calm waters ahead. As Bloomberg reports, the Credit Suisse Fear Barometer has tumbled 25% since the day before the presidential election, while the S&P 500 Index reached an all-time high. The gauge that compares bearish options prices with bullish ones three months from now has dropped to its lowest level since February.

     

    So 'Fear' is absent, and as CNN notes, Greed is on the rise…

     

    Greed indeed – with Small Caps up and almost unprecedented 15 days in a row. The last time they were this overbought (in 2010), the Russell 2000 fell 21% in the following two months…

     

    Bonds are the most oversold since 2007 (after which they exploded higher in price, lower in yield)

     

    And equity market breadth certainly not supportive…

     

    Of course, with The Fed about to hike rates (with certainty) and financial conditions tightening drastically, what could possibly go wrong?

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Today’s News 26th November 2016

  • Trump The Great?

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    Liberals, progressives, and the left-wing (to the extent that one still exists) are aligning with the corrupt oligarchy against president-elect Trump and the American people.

    They are busy at work trying to generate hysteria over Trump’s “authoritarian personality and followers.” In other words, the message is: here come the fascists.

    Liberals and progressives wailed and whined about “an all white male cabinet,” only to be made fools by Trump’s appointment of a black male and two women, one a minority and one a Trump critic.

    The oligarchs are organizing their liberal progressive front groups to disrupt Trump’s inauguration in an effort to continue the attempt to delegitimize Trump the way the paid Maidan protesters were used in Kiev to delegitimize the elected Ukrainian government.

    To the extent any of the Trump protesters are sincere and not merely paid tools of oligarchs, such as George Soros, military and financial interests, and global capitalists, they should consider that false claims and unjustified criticism can cause Trump and his supporters to close their ears to all criticism and make it easier for neoconservatives to influence Trump by offering support.

    At this point we don’t know what a Trump government is going to do. If he sells out the people, he won’t be reelected. If he is defeated by the oligarchy, the people will become more radical.

    We do not know how Washington insiders appointed to the government will behave inside a Trump presidency. Unless they are ideologues like the neoconservatives or agents of powerful interests, insiders survive by going along with the current. If the current changes under Trump, so will the insiders.

    Trump got elected because flyover America has had all it can take from the self-dealing oligarchy. The vast bullk of America has seen its economic prospects and that of children and grandchildren decline for a quarter century. The states Hillary carried are limited to the liberal enclaves and oligarchy’s stomping grounds on the NE and West coasts and in Colorado and New Mexico, where effete wealthy liberals have located because of the scenary. If you look at the red/blue electoral map, geographically speaking Hillary’s support is very limited.

    We know that Hillary is an agent for the One Percent. The Clintons $120 million personal wealth and $1.6 billion personal foundation are proof that the Clintons are bought-and-paid-for. We know that Hillary is responsible for the destruction of Libya and of much of Syria and for the overthrow of the democratically elected government in Ukraine. We know that the Clinton regime’s sanctions on Iraq resulted in the deaths of 500,000 children. These are war crimes and crimes against humanity. We know Hillary used government office for private gain. We know she violated national security laws without being held accountable. What we don’t know is why groups that allegedly are liberal-progressive-leftwing are such fervent supporters of Hillary.

    One possible answer is that these groups are mere fronts for vested interests and are devoid of any sincere motives.

    Another possible answer is that these groups believe that the important issues are not jobs for Americans and avoiding war with nuclear powers, but transgender, homosexual and illegal alien rights.

    Another possible answer is that these groups are uninformed and stupid.

    What these protesters see as a threat in Trump’s strong and willful personality is actually a virtue. A cipher like Obama has no more ability to stand up to the oligarchy than a disengaged George W. Bush so easily stage-managed by Dick Cheney. Nothing less than an authoritarian style and personality is a match for the well-entrenched ruling oligarchy and willful neoconservatives. If Trump were a shrinking violet, the electorate would have ignored him.

    Trump did not purchase his presidency with the offer of handouts to blacks, the poor generally, teachers unions, farmers, abortion rights for women, etc. Trump was elected because he said: “Those who control the levers of power in Washington and the global special interests they partner with, don’t have your good in mind. It’s a global power structure that is responsible for the economic decisions that have robbed our working class, stripped our country of its wealth and put that money into the pockets of a handful of large corporations and political entities. The only thing that can stop this corrupt machine is you.”

    It has been a long time since the electorate heard this kind of talk from someone seeking public office. Trump’s words are what Americans were waiting to hear.

    As willful as Trump is, he is only one person. The oligarchy are many.

    As impressive as Trump’s billion dollars is, the oligarchs have trillions.

    Congress being in Republican hands will spare Trump partisan obstruction, but Congress remains in the hands of interest groups.

    As powerful as the office of the president can be, without unity in government changes from the top don’t occur, especially if the president is at odds with the military with regard to the alleged threat posed by Russia and China. Trump says he wants peace with the nuclear powers. The military/security complex needs an enemy for its budget.

    It is absolutely necessary that a lid be put on tensions between nuclear powers and that economic opportunity reappears for the American people. Trump is not positioned to benefit from war and jobs offshoring. The only sensible strategy is to support him on these issues and to hold his feet to the fire.

    As for the immigration issue, the Obama Justice (sic) Department has just worsened the picture with its ruling that American police departments cannot discriminate against non-citizens by only hiring citizens as officers. Now that US citizens face arrest in their own country by non-citizens, the resentment of immigrants will increase. Clearly it is nonsensical to devalue American citizenship in this way. Clearly it is sensible to put a lid on immigration until the US economy is again able to create jobs capable of sustaining an independent existence.

    If Trump can defeat the oligarchy and save America, he can go down in history as Trump the Great. I think that this prospect appeals to Trump more than more wealth. Instead of trying to tear him down in advance, he should be supported. With Trump’s determination and the people’s support, change from the top down is possible. Otherwise, change has to come from the bottom up, and that means an awful lot of blood in the streets.

  • Marc Hanson: "Houses Have Never Been More Expensive To Buyers Who Need A Mortgage"

    From Marc Hanson of M Hanson Advisors

    Houses have NEVER BEEN MORE EXPENSIVE to end-user, mortgage-needing shelter buyers. The recent rate surge crushed what little affordability remained in US housing. It now it requires 45% more income to buy the average-priced house than just four years ago, as incomes have not kept pace it goes without saying.

    The spike in rates has taken “UNAFFORDABILITY” to such extremes that prices, rates, and/or credit are now radically out of scope.

    At these interest rate levels house prices are simply not sustainable even in the lower-end price bands, which were far more stable than the middle-to-higher end bands (have been under significant pressure since spring).

    * * *

    The Data (note, for simplicity my models assume best-case 20% down and A-grade credit, which is the “minority” of lower-to-middle end buyers).

    1) The average $361k builder house requires nearly $65k in income assuming a 4.5% rate, 20% down, and A-grade credit. Problem is, 20% + A-credit are hard to come by. For buyers with less down or worse credit, far more than $65k is needed.

    For the past 30-YEARS income required to buy the average priced house has remained relatively consistent, as mortgage rate credit manipulation made houses cheaper.

    Bottom line: Reversion to the mean will occur through house price declines, credit easing, a mortgage rate plunge to the high 2%’s, or a combination of all three. However, because rates are still historically low and mortgage guidelines historically easy, the path of least resistance is lower house prices.

     

    2) The average $274k builder house requires nearly $53k in income assuming a 4.5% rate, 20% down, and A-grade credit. Problem is, 20% + A-credit are hard to come by. For buyers with less down or worse credit, far more than $53k is needed.

    For the past 30-YEARS income required to buy the average priced house has remained relatively consistent, as mortgage rate credit manipulation made houses cheaper.

    Bottom line: Reversion to the mean will occur through house price declines, credit easing, a mortgage rate plunge to the high 2%s, or a combination of all three. However, because rates are still historically low and mortgage guidelines historically easy, the path of least resistance is lower house prices.

     

    3) Bonus Chart … Case-Shiller Coast-to-Coast Bubbles

    Bottom line: IT’S NEVER DIFFERENT THIS TIME. Easy/cheap/deep credit & liquidity has found its way to real estate yet again. Bubbles are bubbles are bubbles. And as these core housing markets hit a wall they will take the rest of the nation with them; bubbles and busts don’t happen in “isolation.”

    Case-Shiller’s most Bubblicious Regions

    • Ask Yourself: If 2005-07 was the peak of the largest housing bubble in history with “affordability” never better vis a’ vis exotic loans; easy availability of credit; unemployment in the 4%’s; the total workforce at record highs; and growing wages, then what do you call “now” with house prices at or above 2006 levels; high unaffordability; tighter credit; higher unemployment; a weak total workforce; and shrinking (at best) wages?
    • Logical Answer: Whatever you call it, it’s a greater thing than the Bubble 1.0 peak.

    The mind-numbing Case-Shiller regional charts below are presented without too much comment. The visual says it all.

  • Lone Blogger Rages Against The Washington Post's Russian "Hit List"

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    I have to admit I’m quite honored to see that Liberty Blitzkrieg was recently included on a list of some of the most illustrious, impactful and successful alternative news websites on the planet.

    The list was created by an anonymous group of status quo crybabies who simply can’t handle the fact their beloved chosen oligarch was defeated in a democratically held election by Donald Trump (who I didn’t even support). As such, they are lashing out at alternative news outlets deemed most effective in countering the smothering and nonsensical pro-Hillary narrative tirelessly propagated by the fake mainstream news media.

    The group in question calls itself PropOrNot, and self-describes in the following manner:

    PropOrNot is an independent team of concerned American citizens with a wide range of backgrounds and expertise, including professional experience in computer science, statistics, public policy, and national security affairs. We are currently volunteering time and skills to identify propaganda – particularly Russian propaganda – targeting a U.S. audience. We collect public-record information connecting propaganda outlets to each other and their coordinators abroad, analyze what we find, act as a central repository and point of reference for related information, and organize efforts to oppose it.

     

    We formed PropOrNot as an effort to prevent propaganda from distorting U.S. political and policy discussions. We hope to strengthen our cultural immune systems against hostile influence and improve public discourse generally. However, our immediate aim at this point is to empower the American voter and decrease the ability of Russia to influence the ensuing American election.

    Unfortunately, this is apparently all we know so far about this shadowy organization, which is simply hilarious considering the group deems any alternative news source that does not agree with the U.S. government narrative to be either outright Russian propaganda, or “useful idiots.”

    Here’s “the list:”

    What’s particularly interesting about this list, isn’t the fact that a bunch of anonymous whiners decided to demonize successful critics of insane, inhumane and ethically indefensible U.S. government policy, but rather the fact that the Washington Post decided to craft an entire article around such a laughably ridiculous list. This just further proves a point that is rapidly becoming common knowledge amongst U.S. citizens with more than a couple of brain cells to rub together. The mainstream media is the real “fake news.”

    Let’s take Liberty Blitzkrieg for example. Despite the fact that my site is mentioned on “the list,” nobody from PropOrNot bothered to contact me while doing their “research.” They could’ve asked very simple questions about how the site is run, who owns it, and who makes decisions about editorial content. Furthermore, I doubt they did any such research with regard to any of the mentioned sites before slandering them.

    Since they failed to do any real work, let me answer several of these questions. I, Michael Krieger am the 100% owner of Liberty Blitzkrieg. I, Michael Krieger am the only person who makes decisions on what to publish and when. I have absolutely no connections, financial or otherwise, to the Russian government, Russian interests, or the interests of any other government or government related group. Moreover, there is simply nobody on planet earth who has any influence on what I write or what I publish. I left a very successful and financially lucrative job to do what I do now because my passions and ethical grounding pushed me in this direction. If I was interested in making enormous sums of money, I could’ve easily stayed on Wall Street.

    Moreover, I rarely write about Russia, with the exception of trying to prevent insane neocons and neoliberals in our government from actively seeking a military confrontation, because I — like most normal human beings — would prefer not to contribute to the manifestation of World War 3. Likewise, I try to prevent war breaking out in all circumstances where I think it can and should be avoided. I intentionally almost never use RT as a source, and I’ve never quoted anything from Sputnik. Unlike The Washington Post, I try to be extremely diligent about not publishing fake news, but I am a very strong critic of U.S. government policy, because much of U.S. government policy is certifiably insane and unethical. You can disagree with my opinion on that all you’d like, but I challenge anyone to find anything that could reasonably be considered pro-Russia propaganda on my website. If Liberty Blitzkrieg really is a Russian propaganda site, this should be easy to do since I’ve published thousands of articles over the years.

    For those who ask why I focus on the transgressions of the U.S. government as opposed to foreign governments, the answer should be quite obvious. I am a U.S. citizen. My responsibility is not to change the policies of foreign governments, but to make my own country as honorable and accountable as possible. As Noam Chomsky so eloquently noted:

    One of the most elementary moral truisms is that you are responsible for the anticipated consequences of your own actions. It is fine to talk about the crimes of Genghis Khan, but there isn’t much that you can do about them. If Soviet intellectuals chose to devote their energies to crimes of the U.S., which they could do nothing about, that is their business. We honor those who recognized that the first duty is to concentrate on your own country. And it is interesting that no one ever asks for an explanation, because in the case of official enemies, truisms are indeed truisms. It is when truisms are applied to ourselves that they become contentious, or even outrageous. But they remain truisms. In fact, the truisms hold far more for us than they did for Soviet dissidents, for the simple reason that we are in free societies, do not face repression, and can have a substantial influence on government policy. So if we adopt truisms, that is where we will focus most of our energy and commitment. The explanation is even more obvious than in the case of official enemies.

     

    Naturally, truisms are hated when applied to oneself. You can see it dramatically in the case of terrorism. In fact one of the reasons why I am considered “public enemy number one” among a large sector of intellectuals in the U.S. is that I mention that the U.S. is one of the major terrorist states in the world and this assertion, though plainly true, is unacceptable for many intellectuals, including left-liberal intellectuals, because if we faced such truths we could do something about the terrorist acts for which we are responsible, accepting elementary moral responsibilities instead of lauding ourselves for denouncing the crimes official enemies, about which we can often do very little.

     

    Elementary honesty is often uncomfortable, in personal life as well, and there are people who make great efforts to evade it. For intellectuals, throughout history, it has often come close to being their vocation. Intellectuals are commonly integrated into dominant institutions. Their privilege and prestige derives from adapting to the interests of power concentrations, often taking a critical look but in very limited ways. For example, one may criticize the war in Vietnam as a “mistake” that began with “benign intentions”. But it goes too far to say that the war is not “a mistake” but was “fundamentally wrong and immoral”. the position of about 70 percent of the public by the late 1960s, persisting until today, but of only a margin of intellectuals. The same is true of terrorism. In acceptable discourse, as can easily be demonstrated, the term is used to refer to terrorist acts that THEY carry out against US, not those that WE carry out against THEM. That is probably close to a historical universal. And there are innumerable other examples.

    The fake mainstream news media is completely failing. It is failing because rather than informing the public and criticizing the powerful, it has become merely a giant public relations organ for the U.S. government. The American public clearly sees through the bullshit, in large part due to the efforts of alternative news media. Think about it. Liberty Blitzkrieg doesn’t have a single outside employee. Other than the heroic efforts of my tech person (who spends very little of his time on this site), there’s really no one else contributing in any material way to the operation of this blog. So for a website run by a relatively unknown person to have made it onto this slanderous list (subsequently highlighted by the Washington Post), is not only a great honor, but a testament to the impact one person can have in an environment dominated by a transparently fake and desperate mainstream media.

    As I noted on Twitter earlier today.

    and

    To further demonstrate how desperate the failing mainstream media is to demonize its scrappy alternative news competitors, here’s how The Washington Post “reported” on the PropOrNot list:

    Another group, called PropOrNot, a nonpartisan collection of researchers with foreign policy, military and technology backgrounds, planned to release its own findings Friday showing the startling reach and effectiveness of Russian propaganda campaigns.

     

    The researchers used Internet analytics tools to trace the origins of particular tweets and mapped the connections among social-media accounts that consistently delivered synchronized messages. Identifying website codes sometimes revealed common ownership. In other cases, exact phrases or sentences were echoed by sites and social-media accounts in rapid succession, signaling membership in connected networks controlled by a single entity.

     

    PropOrNot’s monitoring report, which was provided to The Washington Post in advance of its public release, identifies more than 200 websites as routine peddlers of Russian propaganda during the election season, with combined audiences of at least 15 million Americans. On Facebook, PropOrNot estimates that stories planted or promoted by the disinformation campaign were viewed more than 213 million times.

    Interesting. I’d love to see what their “analytics tools” say about Liberty Blitzkrieg. Furthermore, what about that “common ownership” claim. As I mentioned before, I am the sole owner of Liberty Blitzkrieg. It seems PropOrNot is merely making shit up about successful websites they consider a threat. If The Washington Post’s decision to highligh such a list isn’t “fake news,” I don’t know what is.

    Further proving The Washington Post’s lack of any sort of journalistic standards, it highlights PropOrNot despite the fact that…

    “The way that this propaganda apparatus supported Trump was equivalent to some massive amount of a media buy,” said the executive director of PropOrNot, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid being targeted by Russia’s legions of skilled hackers. “It was like Russia was running a super PAC for Trump’s campaign. . . . It worked.”

    I mean, this is simply embarrassing.

    To conclude, the mainstream media is getting exactly what it deserves. Its impact is spiraling into irrelevance, its “journalists” bordering on the comical, and its standards beneath those of individual bloggers with zero staff and no budget. To conclude, the only thing I can ask of readers is the following: Support alternative media now more than ever. Put your money where your mouth is and help defeat the fake news mainstream media once and for all.

    To that end, I’d ask that you please visit the Liberty Blitzkrieg Support Page and consider contributing.

    I’ve written on this topic on several occasions. For more, see:

    Zerohedge Included in What NY Magazine Calls ‘Extremely Helpful List of Fake and Misleading News Sites’

    Obama Enters the Media Wars – Why His Recent Attack on Free Speech is So Dangerous and Radical

    Hillary Clinton Enters the Media Wars

    The Death of Mainstream Media

  • The Battle Of Black Friday: Visualizing The Winners And Losers

    Black Friday – the name elevates images of people standing in long lines, fighting the crowds to grab the best bargains of the year, and filling the shopping carts to the rims. But, as FreeShippingCode.com notes, from another perspective Black Friday is the day when retailers try to push their sales to the last limits in order to maximize their profits, i.e. move from red (loss) column to the black (profit).

    While the shoppers try to grab the best bargains of the year, the retailers, on the other hand, try to achieve their Black Friday sales targets, this battle continues till the end of the day to mark the winners and losers of this battle.

    Source: FreeShippingCode.com

    The Changing Battlefield

    Black Friday sales reached record levels in the last year, but if you are wondering why you did not see those long lines and scenes of shoppers fighting for the best bargains, it is because most of the Black Friday shopping last year was done online. Sales data from last year reveals that 51% Black Friday shoppers used their smartphones to shop online and only 49% headed to the shopping malls and big retail stores. Shoppers have all the good reasons to justify their choice of using their mobile phones and desktops to do their Black Friday shopping online.

    A Look At Some Of The Winners

    The online shopping landscape has dramatically changed the shopping behavior of Black Friday shoppers, as a result, many big retail giants with profound online presence and popularity are enjoying good sales and profits. Let us have a look at some of the major retailers who were able to make it to the victory stands last year.

    Amazon came first with a big chunk of the online sales (35%) in the last Black Friday season. Apple with its popular iPad and iPod brands also enjoyed a good Black Friday season last year. Similarly, REI despite its early announcement to remain closed on the big day recorded 26% increase in the online traffic.

    Every year Black Friday creates demand for thousands of new jobs. Retailers hire more than 70,000 part time seasonal workers and offer them handsome packages and bonuses to perform various tasks like managing distributions, dealing with customers, running store operations and stocking new inventories. These season workers are always the winners in this battle of sales and bargains.

    A Look At Some Of The Losers

    At the end of every epic Black Friday shop-a-thon, there are winners and there are losers. Let us have a look at some of the losers of Black Friday 2015.

    The brick and mortar shopping trend, in general, experienced a great decline in last year's Black Friday shopping event. ASDA, a Walmart subsidiary that introduced this event in the UK market failed to survive. Similarly, a lot of other big retail stores in the UK like Primark, John Lewis, Oasis, and Argos also reduced their participation or canceled it altogether. A lot of the online retail stores failed to handle the heavy traffic load and experienced downtime. John Lewis, for example, reported that one minute of downtown accounted for £75,000 in lost sales.

    In addition to the lost sales faced by the retailers, the consumers also faced losses in terms of injuries and deaths while shopping for discounted items on this one-day shopping bonanza. Since 2006 almost 98 people faced various injuries and 7 lost their lives to win this battle of sales and bargains.

     

  • "The DryShips Market" – What Comes Next Is Anyone's Guess

    Authored by Mark St.Cyr,

    Since we are in the Thanksgiving lull of the “markets.” I wanted to express something that takes place in my own head around these times. Where I (and believe others) may also share some of the same conflicted feelings as we not only try to give thanks, we simultaneously ponder thoughts to what the future might portend, and how we are going to move with it. For in the game of business as is life: the decision process never rests.

    I used the term “conflicted” for a reason. If you’re anything like me (and I believe we’re all the same, it’s only how we deal with things that makes all the difference) they run the gamut from not just the good or bad, but some may range from the exuberantly spectacular – to the down right terrifying.

    Then last, but certainly not least, buffeted with either a single-minded focus – to outright scatter-brained confusion, notwithstanding the myriad of combinations of some, if not all of them at once.

    Nobody knows what the future may portend. Everything (and I do mean everything) is a best guess with whatever evidence you have at your disposal; a willingness to believe in your gut, and your abilities; and the willingness and fortitude to live with/by your decisions. That sounds simple enough, yes. However, it’s in the application, and the willingness of follow through, which makes all the difference. That’s the hard part.

    So why am I making these observations today one might ask? Well, it all started the other day when I received a note from a colleague questioning my thoughts after they read the following headline. To wit:

    Traders Are Now 100% Sure The Fed Hikes Rates In December

    Their question? “Have you rethought your call about the Fed. in December? It would seem you’re not just in the minority: you are the minority!”

    It’s a fair question, as well as a point. However, with that said: No. (as I’ve previously stated I’m currently 85/15 favoring that they won’t.)

    This isn’t some form of relentless death-grip to be contrarian just for the sake of it. Far from it. Rather, I am becoming even more steadfast in that position based on what I believe or “see” as compelling evidence that the Fed., regardless of what it may want to do, will have their hands tied (once again) by “international developments.” e.g. China.

    Whether or not that turns out to be correct is anyone’s guess. For it is all guessing, no matter who says differently.

    Yet, here is where a “spectacular” bull____ run up in “markets” may turn into a truly “terrifying” off-a-cliff stampede should just one metric change. That metric? The Yuan.

    As I sit here today typing, the Chinese currency is not only still in free fall, it is resting precariously so close to the “cliffs edge” (e.g. 7.00 USD/CNY) if it falls over – it will take all markets with it. Emphasis on all. For if one thinks Aug. of 2015 was scary? Let me use this for analogy:

    Aug. 2015 will look like a kiddie rollercoaster as compared to what the “markets” newest amusement park has constructed in the last few weeks if it all goes awry. And China – not the Fed. – is the one contemplating on whether or not it will open sooner, rather than later. And the clock is ticking.

    Dec. 14th is the Fed’s stated “grand opening.” i.e., (they’re really, really, really going to “do it” this time) Any day in between now and then – is China’s to decide. In other words: whether to preempt or not. Or stated differently: Whatever China decides it will, or won’t do during this period dictates what the Fed. will, or won’t be able to do. Period.

    If you think China is going to sit idly by so the Fed. can just raise rates, to then watch their currency tumble into oblivion forced by circumstances not of their own volition, causing capital outflows of historic proportions, which may, or may not exacerbate civil unrest within its borders, when it has (as in knows precisely the mechanism as to manipulate a possible delay to their own benefit) I believe is fool-hearty at best, willingly blind at worst.

    Since I used the term “amusement” and “rollercoaster” for an analogy, let me use a current chart (or charts) to express precisely what I’m speaking to. For there seems to be quite a lot of P.T. Barnum-ing when it comes to describing these “markets” post U.S. election. And it’s not just the main-stream media, but also every next in rotation fund manager, or Ivory Towered economist who can get to a microphone or camera. And be careful not to get in their way – for you will be trampled upon. So here’s that chart. To wit:

    DryShips™ stock chart from about 2 weeks ago

    DryShips stock chart from about 2 weeks ago

    The problem? Again, to wit:

    Here they are as of the Thursday's close

    Here they are as of the Wednesday’s close

    Much like you have seen the U.S. markets with its most nascent accent, so too was DryShips.

    For all intents and purposes this company was at one time regarded and held as the be-all, tell-all, bellwether (especially for one CNBC™ buy,buy,buy king) for global trade. And when the “markets” displayed a “Trump winning means we’re building again!” Everything jumped in unison to match what the so-called “smart crowd” was touting as more causation, rather than correlation. i.e., “The markets are a forward-looking indicator. So get on the bandwagon quick before it passes you by!”

    As I’ve said many times before: “Beware when everyone’s on the bandwagon – except the band.”

    And it would seem that’s precisely what a lot of people noticed (or at least recognized one mother of a short squeeze for what it was) and thought better of it. Sadly, for those who bought into that whole “causation” premise that was being touted across the financial/business media at large and did the whole “Buy,buy, buy!” thing? You have my sympathies – once again.

    So here we are, and one needs to ponder which way, or view, is the correct one?

    Here’s what I know: Nobody knows. And I mean just that: no – body.

    It’s all a best guess scenario regardless of who says different. All you can do is try to decipher clues from the clutter as best you can, make a decision as to what you believe is the most probable outcome if correct, put yourself in the best place as to if it works in your favor (or if your proved to be right) you can, at the least, benefit from it. Whether benefit means capitalize, or alleviate any potential harm. Then, and most importantly – live with, and by, your decisions.

    You can always reevaluate and adjust going forward.

    I say this because I’ve been there. I’ve made some bad decisions, (actually more like terrible) and some good ones. Many of those decisions were in direct opposition to people (and what seemed to be the world-at-large) who were touted to be smarter, more experienced, better looking (much better actually) more seasoned, better educated, and with far more money or wealth than I ever had. That, and a whole lot more.

    I have stood in the face of all of that saying : “What makes you so right?” And then demanded they either give a cogent argument, or, just shut up and go away. Especially when it has come down to business and/or life decisions. More often than not, the “cogent” part never materialized. My record (I’m proud to say) of right or wrong stands on its own. Yes, warts and all.

    You find out as one moves along in life more things are based on “because I said/think so” rather than anything resembling a real thought process. You need to research, evaluate, then decide for yourself. Then, let the chips fall where they may.

    That isn’t always easy. (Trust me, I know!) But it is the only way.

    So once again, who knows what will happen from here, but I’ll end all this using a video link and song that pretty much sums up my stand today as my battle cry in response to my colleague’s inquiry to what I think may, or may not think happen as it pertains to the Fed.

    I believe it fits today as it did for me back long ago. Where I remember and give thanks during this holiday time. For it wasn’t all that long ago when it wasn’t only myself contemplating going up against a world that said “What makes you think you can? ” as to try and grasp the “brass ring” of life. But also, for few friends of mine that were facing the same issues, at the same time. I know because we discussed them. (you can read a little about that here, and here if you wish)

    The song and video title says it all, “I Stand Alone” And the name of those friends? They’re known as Godsmack.

    What comes next? Again, nobody knows for sure. All I know is the clock is now ticking into December 14th, that is irrefutable. That, and believing the “alarm” doesn’t go off before, and is totally under the Fed’s purview, is the only thing which everyone seems complacent in. Which to my mind – is just plain nuts.

  • Australia Cuts Clinton Foundation Donations To $0

    For months we’ve been told that the Clinton Foundation, and it’s various subsidiaries, were simple, innocent “charitable” organizations, despite the mountain of WikiLeaks evidence suggesting rampant pay-to-play scandals surrounding a uranium deal with Russia and earthquake recovery efforts in Haiti, among others.  Well, if that is, in fact, true perhaps the Clintons could explain why wealthy foreign governments, like Australia and Norway, are suddenly slashing their contributions just as Hillary’s schedule has been freed up to focus exclusively on her charity work.  Surely, these foreign governments weren’t just contributing to the Clinton Foundation in hopes of currying favor with the future President of the United States, were they?  Can’t be, only an useless, “alt-right,” Putin-progranda-pushing, fake news source could possibly draw such a conclusion. 

    Alas, no matter the cause, according to news.com.au, the fact is that after contributing $88mm to the Clinton Foundation, and its various affiliates, over the past 10 years the country of Australia has decided to cease future donations to the foundation just weeks after Hillary’s stunning loss on November 4th.

    And just like that, 2 out of the 3 largest foreign contributors to the Clinton Foundation are gone with Saudia Arabia being the last remaining $10-$25mm donor that hasn’t explicitly cut ties or massively scaled by contributions.

    Clinton Foundation

     

    News.com.au confirmed Australia’s decision to cut future donations to the Clinton Foundation earlier today.  When asked why donations were being cut off now, a Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade official simply said that the Clinton Foundation has “a proven track record” in helping developing countries.  While that sounds nice, doesn’t it seem counterintuitive that these countries would pull their funding just as Hillary has been freed up to spend 100% of her time helping people in  developing countries?

    Australia has finally ceased pouring millions of dollars into accounts linked to Hillary Clinton’s charities.

     

    Which begs the question: Why were we donating to them in the first place?

     

    The federal government confirmed to news.com.au it has not renewed any of its partnerships with the scandal-plagued Clinton Foundation, effectively ending 10 years of taxpayer-funded contributions worth more than $88 million.

     

    News.com.au approached the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade for comment about how much was donated and why the Clinton Foundation was chosen as a recipient.

     

    A DFAT spokeswoman said all funding is used “solely for agreed development projects” and Clinton charities have “a proven track record” in helping developing countries.

    Of course it’s only fitting that Australia’s Prime Minister is none other than Malcolm Turnbull, the former Chairman of Goldman Sachs Australia.  Goldman Sachs only pays for results Madam Secretary. 

    Meanwhile, this new comes just after the Norwegian newspaper Hegnar pointed out earlier this week that Norway is expected to slash their contributions to the Clinton Foundation by 87% now that Hillary has lost the presidency.  After contributing roughly $5mm per year to the Clinton Foundation between 2007 – 2013, the Norwegian government decided to boost their donations to ~$15mm and ~$21mm in 2014 and 2015, respectively.  Ironically, that boost in contributions corresponded with Hillary’s decision to run for President in 2016…but we’re sure it was just a coincidence.  That said, it is fairly interesting that, since Hillary’s loss, Norway, like Australia, also decided to scale back their contributions by 87% in 2017…things that make you go “hmm”.

    After a record contribution from Norway to the disputed Clinton Foundation before the election year, is the contribution now in freefall. Financial newspaper can tell that next year’s contribution is down 83 percent from the peak year of 2015.

     

    For 2016, the planned payments to Clinton Health Access Initiative totaling 35.9 million kroner, writes communications advisor Guri Solberg at the Foreign Ministry, in an email to Finance newspaper.

     

    It is one-fifth of last year’s contribution, when nominating election campaign before the US primaries was in full swing, and the Clinton Foundation came under the spotlight in the US press.

     

    According to Finance newspaper lay the annual Norwegian contribution of NOK 40 million on average from 2007 to 2013. In 2014, the contribution more than tripled, to 129 million. And in 2015 they increased to 174 million.

     

    The money has gone to two of the Foundation’s programs, primarily Clinton Health Access Initiative (CHAI), but also the Clinton Climate Initiative (CCI).

     

    For 2017 it is planned payments to Clinton Health Access Initiative 23 million, Solberg wrote in an email to Finance newspaper. It is further down 36 percent from the current year. By comparison, ran this program 169 million in 2015.

    But, no doubt these are just more “plumes of smoke” for which Hillary has absolutely no explanation.

    Hillary

  • The 2014 Economy Lingers On Under The Hope For Something Different

    Submitted by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

    For the month of July 2014, total durable goods orders exploded higher in a fit of Boeing. The growth in aircraft orders in percentage terms was so large as to be meaningless. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, total durable goods (using the latest benchmarks) went from $236.3 billion that June to $290.8 billion for July. Coming as it did in the middle of 2014 when it had seemed as if everything was on the up, it was just more embarrassment of riches for the US as the “cleanest dirty shirt” just about to be put into the washer.

    Of course, the surge in transportation orders heralded nothing for the actual economy, as by the time those estimates were published (and originally the overall estimate for that month was nearly $300 billion) at the end of August 2014 the economic direction had already taken the opposite route. It was just another in a long line of positive numbers, and truly a big one, that have been consistently taken for recovery. An actual growth period, by contrast, is not one with an occasional big number, but one where those become the norm and therefore small positives are the aberration to be set aside.

    We are seeing something of a repeat if in miniature with durable goods for October 2016. The seasonally-adjusted estimate for September was $228.4 billion, jumping to $239.4 billion in the latest update. Civilian aircraft orders, notoriously volatile, were up almost 140% while military aircraft orders grew by a third. Commentary has been, as you would expect, extremely positive.

    abook-nov-2016-durable-goods-yy

    abook-nov-2016-durable-goods-not-cycle

    Underneath, however, we find the same economy dragging on in place since the aircraft surge in July 2014. Durable goods new orders ex transportation were flat again year-over-year (-0.07%) in October for the second straight month. Likewise durable goods shipments were also practically unchanged (-0.24%). Capital goods, on the other hand, continue to contract. New orders for cap goods minus aircraft and defense orders were down 4% for the second straight month; shipments fell more than 6% in October after declining more than 5% in September.

    abook-nov-2016-durable-goods-cap-goods-yy

    abook-nov-2016-durable-goods-cap-goods-contraction

    This is, again, the same languishing US economy that has been an enormous drag on the global system. There aren’t any meaningfully different changes as indicated by durable goods by which to generate appropriate excitement. Economists and the media have, obviously, been intermittently positive about a great many positive numbers over the past 27 months of slow, uneven contraction. What has seized “market” attention is not what is clear the same but what might be different.

    At this stage of almost relatively euphoric sentiment, up-to-date economic statistics will be less meaningful because “markets” are seeing what they want to see about a future that is no longer captured strictly by more of the same. That means central banks no longer so pasted to just QE or ZIRP, but more willing to try different things. As it pertains to the election, there is a Trump administration that could, in theory, provide “stimulus” and not just in the same wasteful, ARRA manner; changes to taxation, regulation, etc.

    In other words, the future has suddenly become a blank canvas upon which to project all the positives that were once claimed about “stimulus” in the generic sense. People largely still believe that it works; if anything is different especially after 2015 and the start to 2016 it is more that the public now clearly sees at the very least QE and central bank “stimulus” wasn’t of the wrong quantity but at least the wrong kind. If the prior regime was populated by the “wrong” stimulus, then it might be a far better future should the next one find the “right” methods.

    No matter what durable goods, or any economic account for that matter, shows about the current economy it will be difficult to overcome this irrationality, which is now almost purely focused on what could be just over the horizon. Since the figures for the rest of 2016 will be rightly considered as part of the “old” “stimulus” regime that failed, unless they start to indicate a more serious slide I can’t imagine the mainstream will give them much thought at all – except where, like aircraft orders, it might seem to fit the narrative of a pickup.

    The only real question is whether or not what central banks or the Trump people might do different is actually different. A second ARRA is going to produce the same results as the first, which included a great deal of tax cuts. Some have started to suggest that it would amount to a practical “helicopter” of stimulus without explaining why those practical “helicopters” before didn’t work, either.

    abook-nov-2016-durable-goods-rationalizing

    In a bigger sense, however, there does not seem to be any willingness anywhere to actually take account of why the economy for more than two years has been stuck in a state of low growth and even, as the goods economy, steady contraction. It is a curious incuriosity, particularly given the irrational hope for different efforts equaling different results. If “we” don’t really know why the economy fell off rather than surged ahead as ecnomists had predicted after July 2014, then why would there be any reasonable expectation for “different” right at the start?

    After all, the people who will be still running “stimulus” are those who had no idea what was going on then, less idea what that meant for the immediate future, and still today can’t explain what did happen. By that I mean all economists in general, and as far as I can tell that includes those of the forming Trump administration, as well as (for now) those in place at the Federal Reserve who are very likely to press ahead a second time to confirm that they think there isn’t actually anything immediately wrong with the economy to begin with.

    It seems to be a corollary to Einstein’s definition of insanity; keep the intellectual paradigm in place but doing slightly different things and expecting very different results. Durable goods confirm that the same 2015-16 economy still lingers, a fact that none of them thought likely or even possible. It’s nice to contemplate how “new” blood might finally get it right, but is what is being proposed now actually new and different? Can you really claim to have the right answers when it seems clear that you don’t know the questions?

    I suspect we are about to find out, all over again, the hard way.

  • Trump Bypasses Media With Direct YouTube/Twitter Distribution As Feud With Mainstream Outlets Rages

    For the past year and a half the Trump team has played the mainstream media like a fiddle.  During the republican primary, he was granted millions of dollars of free air time as the unwitting mainstream outlets thought they were boosting one of Hillary’s chosen “pied piper” candidates that could be easily defeated in the general election.  Then, after helping to catapult him to the republican nomination the media predictably turned on him in a blatant effort to elect their chosen candidate.  Unfortunately for the mainstream media, none of their plans to destroy Trump came close to working and, in fact, he used their corrupt, biased coverage to rally his supporters which is likely a big reason for his ultimate victory.

    Perhaps no one has summarized Trump’s relationship with the media and establishment institutions better than Michael Moore who famously predicted two weeks before election day that Trump’s election would be the “biggest fuck you ever recorded in human history”:

    “They [working class voters] see that the elites who ruined their lives hate Trump.  Corporate American hates Trump.  Wall Street hates Trump.  The career politicians hate Trump.  The media hates Trump, after they loved him and created him and now hate him.  Thank you, media.  The enemy of my enemy is who I’m voting for on November 8th.”

    But now that the campaigning is finally over, the true panic is setting in for the mainstream media as Trump is threatening to cut off the one thing they have left:  access.

    While Trump’s decision to bypass the media in recent days (starting with the message below posted on YouTube which has received millions of views) by speaking directly with the American electorate through direct distribution outlets like YouTube and Twitter may not seem like a big deal, it has the potential to be quite revolutionary.  After running a campaign that proved that blatant, and frankly insulting, pandering to various minority groups and endless cash hoards weren’t necessarily direct determinants of election success, Trump seems intent upon proving that the mainstream media can be completely bypassed in the modern world…and it is glorious to watch.

     

    Of course, we suspect this is part of the reason for the mainstream media’s recent crusade against “fake news” outlets, of which we’re apparently one.  To the extent they can discredit competitive news sources then they get to maintain their monopoly on ideas and information, and the blatant manipulation of those ideas into their own customized narratives.

    As The Hill points out, Trump’s distaste for the media is starting to sow fear and panic in the mainstreamers.  For evidence of that fact, one has to look no further than the outrage expressed when Trump decided to ditch the press to have a steak dinner with his family.  Where was that same outrage when Hillary ditched the press on 9/11 because of her pneumonia?

    White House reporters are worried about access to Trump, who didn’t allow reporters on his campaign plane and ditched media staking out Trump Tower last week to have dinner with family at New York’s 21 Club.

     

    The president-elect’s frequent threats to the press have added to a sense that the rules for covering this White House might be different.

     

    “Every incoming president has basic, generally agreed upon rules of the road,” said Joe Lockhart, who served as White House press secretary for President Bill Clinton.

     

    “The Trump team has decided they’ll blow up and the road and build a new one. Where it goes from here will be a test of how far the new president and his team want to push things, and the strength and will of the press to push back.”

    As The Hill further notes, Trump has little incentive to go through traditional media outlets.  Not only have they proven time and again to be an extension of the democratic party but with his social media following, Trump’s direct distribution of his message gets just as much coverage as a press conference would.

    But Trump has little incentive to go through traditional media channels, some experts say.

     

    Facebook and Twitter combine to give him one of the most powerful social media presences in the world.

     

    He has former Breitbart executive Stephen Bannon at his side in the White House, giving him a powerful ally in the massively influential world of right-wing news.

     

    And when Trump releases a straight-to-camera video to announce his 100-day agenda — as he did this week, in lieu of a press conference — it elicits the same volume of coverage as a press conference would.

     

    Trump was lavished with billions of dollars worth of free airtime and exposure during the campaign, irrespective of how he chose to engage.

     

    Press advocates are worried that the president-elect appears to be holding all the cards.

    As the head of the advocacy group Free Press points out “over the last 20 to 30 years, each White House has thrown up more obstacles and become more obsessed with controlling their own message, but this is a new apex, and it’s really dangerous.”  While we tend to agree that the disintermediation of the corrupt media may be dangerous for their employees…we suspect the rest of us will be just fine.

  • Europe: Let's Self-Destruct!

    Submitted by Judith Bergman via The Gatestone Institute,

    • A reasonable question that many Europeans might ask would be whether it is not perhaps time to review priorities?
    • Perhaps the time has come to look at whether it remains worth it, in terms of the potential loss of human life, to remain party to the 1961 Convention, which would prohibit a country from stripping a returning ISIS fighter of his citizenship in order to prevent him from entering the country?
    • The terrorist as poor, traumatized victim who needs help seems to be a recurring theme among European politicians. But what about the rights of the poor, traumatized citizens who elected these politicians?

    Roughly 30,000 foreign and European Islamic State fighters from around 100 different countries, who have gone to Syria, Iraq and Libya, could spread across the continent once the terror group is crushed in its Iraqi stronghold, warned Karin von Hippel, director-general of the UK military think tank, Royal United Services Institute, speaking to the Express on October 26:

    "I think once they lose territory in Iraq and Syria and probably Libya… they will likely go back to a more insurgent style operation versus a terrorist group that wants to try and hold onto territory… There has been about 30,000 foreign fighters that have gone in from about 100 countries to join. Not all of them have joined ISIS, some have joined al-Qaeda, Kurds, and other groups, but the vast majority have gone to join ISIS. These people will disperse. Some of them have already been captured or killed but many will disperse and they'll go to European countries…They may not go back to where they came from and that is definitely keeping security forces up at night in many, many countries".

    Perhaps these scenarios are really keeping security forces up at night in many countries. Judging by the continued influx of predominantly young, male migrants of fighting age into Europe, however, one might be excused for thinking that European politicians themselves are not losing any sleep over potential new terrorist attacks.

    According to a report by Radio Sweden, for example:

    "Around 140 Swedes have so far returned after having joined the violent groups in Syria and Iraq. Now several municipalities are preparing to work with those who want to defect. This could include offering practical support to defectors."

    The municipality of Lund has dealt with this issue, and Malmö, Borlänge and Örebro have similar views. As Radio Sweden reports:

    "Lund's conclusion is that defectors from violent extremist groups should be handled like defectors from other environments, such as organized crime. After an investigation of the person's needs, the municipality can help with housing, employment or livelihood."

    According to Sweden's "national coordinator against violent extremism," Christoffer Carlsson:

    "…You need to be able to reintegrate into the job market, you may need a driver's license, debt settlement and shelter. When people leave, they want to leave for something else, but they do not have the resources for it, so it is difficult for them to realize their plan. If they do not receive support, the risk is great that they will be unable to leave the extremist environment, but instead fall back into it."

    Anna Sjöstrand, Lund's municipal coordinator against violent extremism, says that people who have served their penalty should all have support. Last year, the Municipality of Örebro received criticism for offering an internship to a young man who returned after having been in Syria.

    "There may be such criticism, but for me it is difficult to think along those lines. They get the same help as others who seek help from us. We cannot say that because you made a wrong choice, you have no right to come back and live in our society," says Anna Sjöstrand.

    According to Sweden Radio, several of the municipalities stress that people who commit crimes should be sentenced and serve their penalties before they can receive support. According to Amir Rostami, who works with the national coordinator against violent extremism:

    "If you are suspected of a crime, the investigation of the crime always comes first. But as long as there is no suspicion of a crime, then it is in our own interest to help those that come out of this extremist environment. The consequences for society are quite large if you do not."

    So, in Sjöstrand's words, travelling to Syria and Iraq to join ISIS, a bestial Islamic terrorist organization with its sexual enslavement of women and children, rapes, brutal murders of Christians, Yazidis, and other Muslims is just "a wrong choice." You know, similar to embezzling money or getting into a drunken brawl at a bar, just ordinary garden-variety crime, which should not intervene with your "right to come back and live in our society". In other words, it seems to support the standard European idea that the terrorist is the victim, not the innocent people he is out to maim, rape, and kill.

    According to the Swedish view, burning Christians and Yazidis alive, gang-raping and murdering women and children, and other such "wrong choices" should not get into the way of one's "rights." It also seems to ignore the rights of members of the peaceful society who are vulnerable to being attacked. It would be logical to posit that traveling for the express purpose of joining a terrorist organization such as ISIS, which has as its explicit goal the destruction of Western nations such as Sweden, should actually lead to the forfeiture of the "right to come back and live in our society" — especially as those former ISIS fighters evidently do not consider Swedish society "their society."

    Another word that comes to mind is treason. But not for Sweden, such logical moral and political choices. Better to have another go at politically correct policies, doomed to failure, at the expense of the security (and taxpayer money) of law-abiding Swedish citizens, whose rights to live without fear of violent assault, rape and terrorism clearly ceased to matter to Swedish authorities a long time ago.

    This hapless attitude towards ISIS increasingly resembles criminal negligence on the part of Swedish authorities. It was recently reported that Swedish police received a complaint of incitement to racial hatred, after an unnamed Syrian-born 23-year-old used a picture of the ISIS flag as a profile picture on social media. Prosecutor Gisela Sjövall decided not to pursue legal action against the man. The reason, according to Sjövall?

    "IS expresses every kind of disrespect; it is against everyone except those who belong to IS itself. There is the dilemma, it [offends] too big a group… You could say that merely waving a flag of IS in the current situation cannot be considered hate speech. It is not an expression of disrespect towards any [particular] ethnic group. It has been said there could possibly be some form of incitement, that IS urges others to commit criminal acts such as murder, but that is not the case."

    Since ISIS hates absolutely everybody, according to Swedish law they can apparently engage in as much hate speech as their hearts desire. The terrorists, who are vying for a world-dominating caliphate, must be laughing their heads off.

    Sjövall added that because the Nazi swastika is intrinsically linked to inciting anti-Semitism, this contravenes Swedish laws, and that maybe the ISIS flag would be considered as contravening Swedish law in 10 years.

    At the rate that Swedish society is self-destructing, there may not even be much of Sweden to speak of 10 years from now.

    On June 7, 2016, it was reported that British citizen Grace "Khadija" Dare had brought her 4-year-old son, Isa Dare, to live in Sweden, in order to benefit from free health care. In February, the boy was featured in an ISIS video, blowing up four prisoners in a car (pictured above). The boy's father, a jihadist with Swedish citizenship, was killed fighting for ISIS.

    In neighboring Denmark, in March 2015, a Danish MP for the Social Democrats, Trine Bramsen, said about returning ISIS fighters:

    "Some constitute a danger or can become dangerous. Others need help. We have actually seen that many of those who come home have experienced such horrors that they need psychological help".

    The terrorist as poor, traumatized victim who needs help seems to be a recurring theme among European politicians. But what about the rights of the poor, traumatized citizens who elected these politicians?

    Denmark happens to be the European country with the most ISIS fighters returning from Syria, according to a report released in April by the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism in The Hague. The report shows that 50% of the people who left Denmark to fight with ISIS in Syria have returned to Denmark. The UK is second, with 48%, and then come Germany (33%), Sweden (29%), France (27%), and Austria (26%).

    In Denmark, four Syrian ISIS fighters were arrested in April when they returned from Syria.

    The head of the Strategic Institute of the Defense Academy in Denmark, Anja Dalgaard-Nielsen, told a Danish newspaper in April that there are not enough resources to monitor all returning ISIS fighters and thereby ensure their arrest, adding:

    "But then again, not all [ISIS fighters] are identical. Some will come home and be a threat to society, whereas others will return disillusioned. If we treat everyone in the same manner, we risk pushing some of those who are in doubt even further in. If someone returns and it cannot be proven that he has committed crimes and if he, besides that, is disillusioned, then he should get help to get out."

    How do you determine with certainty that someone is "disillusioned," when he could in fact be a ticking bomb waiting to commit terror?

    In Denmark, the authorities decided on a prohibition to travel to Syria to join ISIS. That, however, does not solve the problem of what to do with the returning ISIS fighters. It also does not do much to prevent those potential ISIS fighters who have been frustrated in their efforts to join ISIS, from unleashing their terror on European soil instead — as ISIS has in fact commanded them to do.

    Several countries, including the United Kingdom and Australia, have considered revoking the citizenship of returning ISIS fighters, thereby preventing them from returning. This is certainly feasible in those cases where the person in question has dual citizenship. Political obstacles aside, however, one of the main legal obstacles to countries taking this path is the 1961 UN Convention on the Reduction of Statelessness, which prohibits governments from revoking a person's nationality if it leaves them stateless.

    A reasonable question that many Europeans might ask would be whether it is not perhaps time to review priorities? Perhaps the time has come to look at whether it remains worth it, in terms of the potential loss of human life, to remain party to the 1961 Convention, which would prohibit a country from stripping a returning ISIS fighter of his citizenship in order to prevent him from entering the country?

    Presumably, the European people care more about staying alive than the intricacies of international law. When will European leaders mobilize the political will to act?

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Today’s News 25th November 2016

  • Washington Post Spends Thanksgiving Lamenting Over Fake News and the Russian Scare

    Craig Timberg from Washington Post must be bored this Thanksgiving, spending his time concocting a rich and imaginative tale of fake news websites swaying the billion dollar Clinton campaign from no brainer win to a horrible loss. Here we are, once again, with the faux claims out of Washpo — spreading their own ironic fake news of Russian hacking conspiracies and a furious — and all of a sudden — flood of fake news websites that worked in concert to elect Donald Trump. After all, how could anyone vote for a man who’s credo was Americanism over globalism. Don’t you like cheap prices at Walmart? To date, hard evidence of Russian interference in our elections has yet to materialize — which was at the vanguard of the democrat response to embarrassing Wikileaks revelations that painted the party as wantonly corrupt and spirit cooking depraved. Since the election results shocked the establishment elite, there has been an absolute fervor across the media, led by Obama and his shills, to place the blame for Hillary’s cosmically hilarious defeat on websites that challenge falsehoods and media cuckery . Washpo chimes in on the issue — fueled by a McCarthy era styled list of Russian propaganda websites — provided by shills at some bullshit website called ProporNot.

    The flood of “fake news” this election season got support from a sophisticated Russian propaganda campaign that created and spread misleading articles online with the goal of punishing Democrat Hillary Clinton, helping Republican Donald Trump and undermining faith in American democracy, say independent researchers who tracked the operation. PropOrNot’s monitoring report, which was provided to The Washington Post in advance of its public release, identifies more than 200 websites as routine peddlers of Russian propaganda during the election season, with combined audiences of at least 15 million Americans. On Facebook, PropOrNot estimates that stories planted or promoted by the disinformation campaign were viewed more than 213 million times.  “The way that this propaganda apparatus supported Trump was equivalent to some massive amount of a media buy,” said the executive director of PropOrNot, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid being targeted by Russia’s legions of skilled hackers. “It was like Russia was running a super PAC for Trump’s campaign. .?.?. It worked.”

    On ProporNot’s list of websites to avoid, due to Russian propaganda risk, includes infowars.comnakedcapitalism.comwikileaks.orgzerohedge.com — amongst many others. Propornot even provides their readers with a wonderful chrome browser extension to rout out these evil sites. Instead of reading propaganda, maybe you should read Snopes instead (serious eyeroll action). If you want to continue the discussion, go head on over to their Reddit page — where another 26 people are interested in the complete shit they spew. According to recent Alexa rankings, these butthurt libtards are talking to themselves, literally, except for the moron singular shill from Washpo who wrote this absurd story. fail The quintessential picture of failure

    I can sit here and claim alt-left sites like MotherJones and DailyKos are merely Chinese shills, working in concert with the Democratic Party, in an effort to elect democrats in order to  continue to pursue a brand of globalism that favors the hollowing out of America’s middle class, transferring vast amounts of wealth from here to there. In spite of the fact that everything I just said, as a matter of policy, is 100% accurate — the cucks from Daily Kos had little to do with it.

    The fake news conspiracy theories being promoted by very low and disingenuous news agencies, who’ve proven to be corrupted and co-opted by the Democratic Party, is embarrassing for the 4th estate. Instead of bucking up and dealing with their short comings, the fact that no one believes their shit anymore, they’ve gone apeshit hysterical over the success of Breitbart and other conservative leaning sites — simply branding them as fake and actively working with Appnexus, Facebook and Google to demonetize them.

    Welcome to the Chinafication of the American media.

    Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

  • Paul Craig Roberts Asks "What If Trump Fails?"

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    Did Donald Trump win the election because he is a racist and misogynist and so are the American people?

    No. That’s BS from the Oligarchs’ well-paid whores in the media, “liberal progressive” activist groups, think tanks and universities.

    Did Trump win because he stole the election?

    More BS. The Oligarchs controlled the voting machines. They failed to steal the election, because the people outsmarted them and told the pollsters that they were voting for Hillary. This led to the presstitutes’ propaganda that Hillary was the certain winner, and the Oligarchs believed their own propaganda and didn’t believe it necessary to make certain of their victory.

    Trump won the presidency because he spoke directly and truthfully to the American people, telling them what what they knew to be true and had never before heard from any politician:

    “Our movement is about replacing a failed and corrupt political establishment with a new government controlled by you, the American people. The establishment has trillions of dollars at stake in this election. Those who control the levers of power in Washington and the global special interests they partner with, don’t have your good in mind. The political establishment that is trying to stop us is the same group responsible for our disastrous trade deals, massive illegal immigration and economic and foreign policies that have bled our country dry.

     

    “It’s a global power structure that is responsible for the economic decisions that have robbed our working class, stripped our country of its wealth and put that money into the pockets of a handful of large corporations and political entities. The only thing that can stop this corrupt machine is you. The only force strong enough to save our country is us. The only people brave enough to vote out this corrupt establishment is you, the American people.”

    Trump did not promise voters a bunch of handouts. He didn’t say he would fix this and that. He said that only the American people could fix our broken country and identified himself as an agent of the people.

    The people won the election, but the Oligarchy is still there, as powerful as ever. They have already launched their attack using their whores in the media and liberal progressive groups in attempts to delegitimize Trump with protests, petitions, and endlessly false news reports. George Soros, using the money he made by his attack on the British currency, will pay thousands of protesters to attempt to disrupt the inauguration.

    What about Trump’s government? As Trump discovered, finding appointees who are not part of the Oligarchy’s economic and foreign policy establishment is very difficult.

    Washington is not a home for critics and dissidents. Consider Pat Buchanan, for example. As a White House official in two administrations and a two-time presidential candidate, he is experienced, but Washington has marginalized him.

    Moreover, even if there were a stable of outsiders, they would be eaten alive by the insiders. Trump will have to take insiders. But he has to pick insiders who are to some extent their own person. General Michael Flynn as National Security Adviser is not a bad pick. Flynn is the former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency who advised the Obama regime against employing ISIS against Syria. Flynn has publicly stated on television that the appearance of ISIS in Syria was a “willful decision” of the Obama regime. In other words, ISIS is Washington’s agent, which is why the Obama regime has protected ISIS.

    Trump’s chief of staff (Priebus) and chief strategist (Bannon) are reasonable choices.

    Sessions (Attorney General) and Pompeo (CIA) are disturbing appointments based on their media-created reputations. But in the US where there is no honest media, we don’t know the truth of the reputations. Nevertheless, if Sessions does support torture, he is disqualified as attorney general, because the Constitution prohibits torture. The US cannot afford yet another attorney general who does not support the US Constitution.

    If Pompeo actually is so poorly informed that he opposed the Iran settlement, he is not fit to be CIA director. The CIA itself said that Iran had no nuclear weapons program, and with Russia’s help the matter was resolved. Does Trump want a CIA director who neoconservatives could use to restart the conflict?

    The views of Sessions and Pompeo could be products of the time and not visceral. Regardless, Trump is a strong and willful person. If Trump wants peace with the Russians and Chinese, appointees who get in the way will be fired. So let’s see what a Trump government does before we damn it.

    Presstitute reports of extreme neoconservative John Bolton and former US attorney and NY Mayor Rudy Giuliani being candidates for Secretary of State do not seem credible. If Trump intends to get along with Putin, how can he do that if his Secretary of State wants war with Russia? Trump should find an experienced diplomat who negotiated with the Soviets. Richard Burt, who had a major role in the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, is the sort of person it would make sense to consider. Another sensible candidate would be Jack Matlock, Reagan’s Ambassador to the Soviet Union.

    If Trump wants peace with Russia, the Secretary of State is the important appointment.

    If Trump wants to stop the Oligarchy’s rip off of the American people, the Secretary of the Treasury is the important appointment.

    Under the last three presidents, treasury secretaries have been agents for the banks-too-big-to-fail and for Wall Street. It is now a tradition for the financial gangsters to own the Treasury. It remains to be seen if the tradition is too strong for Trump to break.

    The Oligarchy is trying to discredit the Trump Presidency before it exists. This effort is discrediting liberal and progressive groups by identifying them with nonenforcement of the immigration laws and with homosexual and transgender rights, issues not on the agenda of an electorate whose economic fortunes have been declining and who are tired of 15 years of war that serves only the hegemony agenda of the neoconservatives and the profits and power of the military/security complex.

    According to The Saker, Putin has begun removing the Atlanticist Integrationists, Russia’s Fifth Column, from influence. Let’s see if Trump can remove our fifth columnists—neoconservatives and neoliberal economists—who have sold out the American people and America’s integrity.

    If Trump fails, the only solution is for the American people to become more radical.

  • Dollar Shortage Goes Mainstream: When Will The Fed Confess?

    Last week we posted the report by ADM ISI’s Paul Mylchreest “Dollar Liquidity Threat is Getting Critical and the Fed is M.I.A” which summarized some of the key points in the ongoing, second phase of global dollar shortage, profiled here first in the start of 2015 and validated recently by the BIS. We discussed the bitter (and all too predictable) irony that the Federal Reserve doesn’t “get it”, having recently declared that that liquidity in financial markets was “adequate.”

    It isn’t.

    More than 68,000 hits later, we suspect that many ZH readers are tracking the dollar liquidity crisis (and Fed ignorance) via the negativity in Cross Currency Basis Swaps (CCBS). The 3-month Yen/Dollar CCBS has made a new low of 81.75 bp (swapping Yen into dollars for 3 months costs 81.75bp annualised above covered interest parity) implying that the structural dollar shortage is deteriorating.

    While we’ve been writing about dollar shortages since the GFC, Mylchreest traced the timeline of the current shortage back to the first RMB devaluation in February 2014. He noted that it’s the one thing that even the central banks struggle to control… think Swiss Franc peg (SNB), impact on carry trade and the Yen (BoJ) and the severe weakness that we’re seeing in the RMB (PBoC). Indeed, a “glaring omission” is the failure of the Fed to set-up a dollar swap arrangement with the PBoC.

    Mainstream economists and media are playing catch-up. For example, Carmen Reinhart referenced the “dollar shortage” last month, as did Bloomberg, citing a new report by former Fed economist Zoltan Pozsar which summarizes everything we have said for years.

    In his latest “Global Money Notes” report, “From Exorbitant Privilege to Existential Dilemma”, Credit Suisse’s Zoltan Pozsar argues that “an FOMC determined to normalise interest rates has no choice but to become a Dealer of Last Resort in the FX swap market and provide qunatitative Eurodollar easing (“QEE”) for the rest of the world through its dollar swap lines.”

    According to Pozsar, Basel III and the money market reforms are tightening dollar funding markets causing an “existential trilemma” for the Fed in which “it is impossible to have constraints on bank balance sheets (restraining capital mobility in global money markets), a par exchange rate between onshore dollars and Eurodollars, and a domestically oriented monetary policy mandate. Something will have to give. It’s either the cross-currency basis, the foreign exchange value of the dollar or the hiking cycle. It’s either the Fed’s regulatory and monetary objectives, or control over the Fed’s balance sheet size. It’s either quantities or prices…”

    In terms of CCBS, Pozsar expects “Cross-currency bases will have to go more negative before the Fed steps in, and -150bp on the three-month dollar-yen basis is not an unlikely target”, which would probably lead to a severe bout of Yen weakness from here. The three month dollar-euro basis swap has declined to -43.9bp, closing in on its recent low of -58.8bp during the Deutsche Bank panic nearly two months ago. As an aside, it’s telling that fears about European banks still cause a scramble for dollar liquidity in a deja vu all over again. 

    Pozsar, like Mylchreest, highlights how a dollar funding crisis tightens monetary policy for the rest of the world and could shred the RMB as it means “tighter financial conditions for the rest of the world. In turn, tighter financial conditions point to slow, not faster global growth as foreign banks pass on higher costs to their customers or worse: de-lever their books…If the Fed leaves the intermediation of all of the rest of the world’s marginal dollar needs to American bank’s constrained balance sheets, offshore financial conditions may tighten and the dollar may strengthen to the point where they are no longer consistent with the path envisioned for the funds rate: rounds of RMB devaluation would follow which also won’t help interest rate normalization.”

    So, the rest of the world is left to hang around, waiting to see if the Federal Reserve wakes up to what’s happening to dollar liquidity, and the threat it poses to the global economy and to its own (glacially slow) tightening cycle.

    And now that they may be finally catching on, we would like to see some economists or journalists sit Janet Yellen down and interrogate her about dollar funding markets. Although we doubt that they could extract a confession, it might be entertaining to watch.

  • The Perfect Storm Set To Pop Aussie Apartment Bubble Bringing The Economy Down With It

    Submitted by Guy Manno via Crush the Market

    The Aussie apartment boom that has turned into an epic bubble with record, sky-high prices, is showing all the signs for the perfect storm which will ultimately pop. With the popping of the apartment boom, it will simultaneously bring down the Australian economy, as the apartment market is set to have a sizeable correction in 2017 and 2018.

    A short Look At Australia’s Real Estate Market

    Australian real estate prices have been going up for over 25 years with hardly a pause in between since the late 80’s. The last time real estate prices fell considerably was when Australia last had an official economic recession back in 1987, when interest rates skyrocketed to around 17-18%.

    The chart below show the price growth of real estate, rents and CPI since mid 1987. Initially the price growth of Australia’s real estate market climbed steadily taking 11 years to double in 1988. From there the price growth continued to accelerate with the next 100% increase in price taking 4.5 years to reach.

    An interesting observation on the chart below is that real estate prices have risen by over 700% since 1987, yet rents have risen  just under 300% over the same period. This chart clearly shows that the majority of the price growth was not supported by a fundamental increase in rents to support the higher prices, but rather a massive surge in mortgage debt over the same period drove prices higher.

    Australia

     

    Rising Credit Leads To Booms & Contractions In Credit Lead to Busts

    Professor Steve Keen in the interview shown below highlights his own reasons why he sees a recession coming in 2017 for Australia.

    Steve highlights a number of reasons for his prediction, including deteriorating terms of trade, the ending of the mining investment boom, the Government’s pursuit to cut spending and a reduction in foreign buyers for real estate, among others. However, the most important reason is a deceleration of credit / mortgage debt. Based on Steve’s research and economic models the deceleration of mortgage debt growth is the leading cause for all economic downturns globally including the US, Japan and Europe economic recessions, with a correlation close to -1. What all his research shows is that the deceleration of mortgage debt growth leads to a collapse in real estate prices which then lead to an economic recession in those countries.

    Due to this research, Steve believes Australia will react the same way as other countries based on slowing growth in mortgage debt. Especially, as the conditions have already begun to slow based on the bank’s tightening their standards overall. However, most of the lending restrictions imposed from the banks are for off the plan apartments and existing apartments within most major cities around Australia.

     

    Given Australia was recently ranked number 4 in the world in the UBS global real estate bubble index, see: Australia’s debt addiction fuels record real estate bubble, its easy to see that prices could fall over 20% as lending conditions continue to tighten and their effects take hold.

    Why Are Banks Tightening Lending Conditions With Record Real Estate Prices?

    The simple reason is that the banks do not want to be caught in a credit crunch like they faced back in 2008 and 2009 where they had to have the RBA and the US FED provide considerable financial assistance to keep them afloat.

    Right now the banks can see what everyone else can see if you look at all the data publicly available. Australia will face a major oversupply of apartment dwellings over the next 1 – 3 years from a major ramp up of approvals of apartments. The growth of approvals over the last 7 years which you can see in the chart below, is leading to a big jump in the construction of apartments with a number of them being competed in the next 18 months.

    Australia

     

    Due to the rapid increase in approvals, there has been a massive spike of cranes currently being deployed in Australia, to handle the apartment boom that is currently taking place. As you can see below in the chart Sydney and Melbourne are leading the way in Australia, dwarfing most major cities in the US including New York and LA.

    Australia

     

    With all the current construction for apartments taking place from the buildup of approvals, especially in the last 3 years, Australia is facing a glut of new apartments that are about to be completed in 2017 and 2018.

    Knowing the upcoming glut of apartment completions is about to come available on the market soon, the banks have taken action to protect their capital by providing most of their tightening around new and existing apartments within the CBD’s of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane where most of the construction has taken place.

    Australia

     

    Highest Housing Completions = Biggest Housing Price Fall

    The chart below shows a comparison of house prices in Australia, UK, Spain, US and Ireland with an accompanying housing completions chart.

    The most obvious data from the chart is both Ireland and Spain had the biggest fall in prices during the GFC in 2008 relative to the other countries shown. Those 2 countries also had the largest ramp up of new housing completed from 2000 – 2007.

    Australia

     

    Surging Bond Yields Leads To Higher Mortgage Rates In Australia.

    Back in October US Government 10 yr bond yields were sitting at around 1.55%. Fast forward one month and rates are now sitting at around 2.3%.  A 0.8% increase from the October levels (see chart below). The reason why this is a big deal, is that the US Government bond yields are what are utilized to benchmark most of the different types of retail and commercial loans.

    In Australia the banks also rely heavily on overseas markets and especially the US markets to provide the necessary funding to support their loan book. So as bond yields have skyrocketed in such a short period in the US, it has already led to the banks in Australia lifting rates by between 0.20% – 0.60% on their fixed loans as their funding costs have jumped dramatically.

    With mortgage rates rising and lending conditions being tightened its becoming more difficult for developers to sell their off the plan apartments as investors find it more difficult to access bank lending to finance their purchases, resulting in a slump in demand for off the plan apartments.

    Melbourne Developer Offers $21,000 To Encourage Buyers

    In an attempt to lure buyers to a new off the plan development in Melbourne, a large well known developer is now offering $21,000 to investors in an attempt to sell their $420,000 1 br apartments in Southbank Melbourne. The idea is to match the investor or first time buyer’s 5% deposit of $21,000 to assist them in meeting a 10% deposit.

    The problem that this Melbourne developer and other developers will find, is even with this huge financial incentive, many of the banks in Australia have lifted their minimum deposit requirements for off the plan apartments in major cities to between 15% – 25%.

    Australia

     

    Apartment Bubble Bursting Leading To Australian Recession

    Similar to Professor Steve Keen’s prediction that a recession is coming to Australia in 2017 or early 2018, I also believe that the perfect storm of conditions are developing that will soon pop the apartment bubble that has been taking place in Australia.

    When the correction in apartment prices takes hold, it will have a domino effect on the Australian economy, leading to a contraction in economic activity in Australia. The reason for this is because the real estate industry and related industries now has the largest contribution to GDP at around 28%. (See chart below)

    With record amount of apartment construction taking place over the last few years, fueling a considerable amount of GDP growth, I believe the slowing of the construction industry will start to subtract heavily on GDP growth in 2017 and 2018 leading to Australia’s first recession in over 25 years.

    Australia

  • October Was The Worst Month For Hedge Funds Yet This Year

    Another month, and the pain for the hedge fund industry just keeps getting more intense.

    According to the latest Evestment report, investors redeemed an estimated net $14.2 billion from hedge funds in October. Year-to-date, there has been  a net $77.0 billion removed from the industry.  October’s outflow was the fourth month of redemptions in the last five and seventh in 2016. Due to the  breadth of products experiencing outflows, and the persistence of redemptions outweighing new allocations, it is clear the industry is experiencing a crisis -like wave of negative investor sentiment.

    One almost wonders how much higher the market can keep rising with redemption requests flooding countless back offices. We hope to find out soon.

    Here are the rest of the details on the latest, ongoing, troubles facing the hedge fund industry which, unless something drastically changes soon may end up being a “zero hedge” industry:

    • The breadth of redemption pressure in October was the industry’s largest in 2016 with 61% of reporting funds estimated to have net outflow during the month. The last five months have accounted for the majority of the industry’s redemptions in 2016, a time frame which aligns with investors’ processes for analyzing 2015 results, and taking actions on those decisions.

    • While investors broadly reduced investments in hedge funds in October, the bigger issue was the lack of meaningful new investment. The portion of funds losing greater than 2% or 5% of their AUM from redemptions was only slightly above average in October, however the portion with new allocations greater than 2% or 5% of their AUM were well below average. Essentially, flows in October were poor not necessarily because investors redeemed from the industry, but no one is really allocating with any enthusiasm.

    • One major issue that arose in October, investors appear to be turning their backs on the one segment which had supported industry flows in 2016, managed futures. Performance issues, as anticipated, appear to have swayed investor sentiment toward the group negative. After aggregate performance declines in each of the last three months, and six of the last eight, managed futures funds had their second largest month of outflows in almost two years in October. With performance losses intensifying in October, the outlook for flows for the universe is not positive.
    • Event driven funds continue to be a major source of redemption pressures for the industry. October and YTD flows by size and prior year return illustrate the issue well; too many large funds performed  poorly last year, and they have been the major source of redemption pressures through the year, and into October. Why that occurred is particular to each fund, however the negative sentiment in response has been universal.
    • August marked fifteen months of investors voting in favor of commodity strategies, but after recent losses, investors have begun to head to the exits. Redemptions in October were the second consecutive month of outflows after persistent losses re-emerged in July.
    • If pressed for a bright spot, investors were net allocators to multi-strategy hedge funds in October. Inflows were not large, however it may be a positive sign that the seven months of positive returns prior to October have resulted in positive flows in two of the last three months. July’s nearly $8 billion in redemptions may ultimately prove to be the moment investor sentiment bottomed out toward the strategy.
    • The outlook for macro hedge funds may actually be positive, despite October being the tenth monthly net outflow for the universe within the last year. Eight consecutive months of positive asset-weighted performance, against the backdrop of a rapidly evolving macro economic landscape could be positive for flows. There remains the risk for investors to select managers who most appropriately interpret global influences, as the universe has proven that not all will get it right, and several may get it very wrong.
    • Distressed, the industry’s best performing strategy of 2016, had slightly positive flows in October. Distressed investing, in a hedge fund structure, has endured 22 months of negative investor sentiment prior to October. The interest in private credit funds, whose structures are designed to be specifically aligned to opportunities in distressed or special situation credit markets, have likely had an impact on distressed hedge fund net flows.

    There is a silver lining. Here is evestment’s conclusion:

    Hedge funds are facing difficult times, but the $3 trillion industry is not on the verge of disappearing. The issues of expensive access to increasingly marginalized and potentially replicable returns streams, has and will continue to force change. Savvy institutional investors have more choices, more technology and more influence on their side than ever before. The largest allocators may find it more cost effective to bring resources in-house rather than to pay fees for mediocrity. Others may turn to replication strategies, ETFs, but also increasingly to private markets where there is the perception that value  has more potential to be realized, and manager expertise is more critical in that process. The result for the hedge fund industry, for now, appears to be stagnation at best, and erosion at worst. What may provide hope to the industry is a change which disrupts the homogeny of public markets over the last several years. There are sparks of change emerging over the globe, but whether professional discretion can prevail is not yet evident.

  • Trump, OPEC, & Game Theory

    Submitted by Emad Mostaque via GovernmentsAndMarkets.com,

    “It’s not whether you win or lose, but whether you win!”. Source: Reddit

     

    Nobody has any real idea what President-elect Donald Trump has planned.

    It is quite possible he himself doesn’t know.

    As President-elect we are all forced to take him seriously, but the consequences of taking him literally or not are so wide that most are in a state or confusion.

    However, if we look at the situation more closely there may be method to the madness and some potential hints on where we go from here.

    Candidate Trump was incredibly successful in covering up his weaknesses by, in effect, making the US election a referendum.

    The election was a referendum on the status quo and a vote for Trump was a vote for change, not a vote for the huge range of messages and proposals he put out.

    Indeed, by putting out so many messages and controversial statements he attracted different voters for different reasons. So the blue collar worker may have voted against free trade, but the Pennsylvanian Latino may have voted against health insurance premiums jumping 50%. The extreme proposals echoed his negotiation style as he made a bold first step, then walked it back, also allowing voters to justify ignoring his more odious statements.

    The opponents of Trump preferred to take him at his word, ignoring the real passions his grievance narrative and promise of a better (different) tomorrow stirred up, looking to fight him on topics his supporters found ephemeral.

    This strategic ambiguity in his message changed the game and was a key component of his ability to beat Clinton by going outside the system and making it a game of persuasion over politics. The falsehoods leading to furious fact checking were also reminiscent of the theoretical foundations of non-linear war put in place by the Russians, building on the work of prior autocrats. We can expect this to continue with Trump TV and direct communication through social media.

    The normalization of Candidate Trump has occurred faster than anyone could have imagined as the world is now forced to take him seriously as President-elect.

    The narrative has moved quickly to a positive one of a structural change with decreased regulation, lower taxes and huge infrastructure spending. Leading figures are overlooking extreme statements and focusing on President Trump as a more reasonable, settled and somewhat magnaminous chap after he ‘won’ the negotiation.

    However, little is certain and this presents an interesting situation to look at through the lens of game theory.

    The USA has been the global superpower for decades, much to its own benefit and that of the rest of the world (overall).

    Free trade and globalization trends combined in a cooperative game where participants benefited, although some, like global multinational organisations and owners of capital, gained more than others such as domestic blue collar workers. These trends also helped pull hundreds of millions out of poverty worldwide and trade in a truly positive sum outcome.

    The most recent cooperative equilibrium has been the gospel belief in the power of Central Banking that has dominated markets and investment moves in recent years. This has been the primary narrative around the market and most price moves have been described in relation to Central Bank actions as opposed to more idiosyncratic factors.

    Cooperative equilibria like this are slow to form, but relatively stable.

    Until they aren’t.

    Political factors and a slowing of global trade has been placing increasing pressure on this narrative and the election of Donald Trump into the most powerful position in the world has accelerated this process, with a key flip in the dominant narrative towards fiscalism and stimulus spending over austerity and low rates.

    More importantly, the role of the USA has changed sharply in terms of its likely behaviour under a Trump administration as it will no longer be a cooperative player, but a competitive one.

    This moves us into a different class of competition, such as the familiar games of chicken and the prisoner’s dilemma, where there are drastically different equilibrium conditions.

    Competitive players in competitions where there is a key enforcer and dominant player such as the USA can be handled through a variety of means, but when the dominant player changes its tack to claw back some the shared gains for itself, the game can rapidly change to a zero-sum or even negative-sum one.

    This is where the fear of trade wars comes in and, looking at prior instances, the narrative is likely to rapidly shift across a spectrum of outcomes as each player in the game makes their competitive moves to get “ahead” of the game.

    The “pricing for perfection” of the current narrative is fragile in this environment given the difficulty of implementation and the probability of continued extreme comments from the President-elect and his transition team. Curiously, the likely continued impact of these statements means the US will likely trade in a similar manner to autocratic Emerging Markets, unsurprising when Trump’s executive Presidency has more power than even rulers like President Erdo?an.

    The uncertainty created by the dichotomy between the outcomes of Candidate and President Trump also add an additional wrinkle to this, placing the new normal into a category known as competitive games under uncertainty.

    The most prominent recently example of this is OPEC and Saudi Arabia’s decision not to cut. A number of classical models can be employed to understand OPEC (generally a Stackelberg competition given Saudi’s role is a good starting point), but the presence of US shale changed the equation.

    In this case, a cut, for example, of 1mbpd by Saudi Arabia (say 10% of 10mbpd of production), would be sensible if they expected the price to rise 10%, particularly if everyone else chipped in, something other players are not incentivised to do due to lack of enforceability by OPEC.

    This would cost Saudi Arabia $18bn in forgone production revenue over 12 months if oil prices stayed at $50. If US shale output was elastic as oil prices rose however, with rigs firing up once more and stabilising the price, US shale would make $18bn at the Saudi’s expense.

    This uncertainty changed the game and equilibrium conditions until we headed into the recent Saudi bond issuance and in the next period ahead of a potential Saudi Aramco IPO as this completely changes the payoff structure. OPEC is still an unstable competition, but there are alternative oil balancing approaches that are not.

    Going into the OPEC meeting at the end of the month the optimised structure would have Iran being included once more in the exclusions and an overall cut target announced but flexible country quotas. The negotiating position of Saudi Arabia simply is not very strong given the changing conditions. This may not be enough to push oil prices above $60, but a failure in the deal would push prices well into the $30 range. I remain very bullish for 2017.

    As he has a huge popular mandate having eschewed using the GOP power structure, the rational approach for President Trump is to continue with his classical negotiation tactics in bringing the House, Senate and foreign powers in line with his long-term wishes under an environment of competition and uncertainty to gain an edge.

    The proximate impact of this shift is to increase the probability of market-altering moves such as a Chinese currency free float, with a periodic shifting between multiple unstable equilibria as each side tries to get ahead. We are already seeing this with the Yuan drifting to multi-year lows and JP is very bearish on the potential for a Q1 shock in China as outlined here.

    The world seems a very uncertain place at the moment as the foundations of many of our political, economic and market models shift underneath us.

    However, this may be a feature, not a bug of the new regime and it may be possible to adapt and understand where we might be headed if we build the right structural models in a methodological way. The likely path to a new stable status quo is likely to be a rocky one, with plenty of opportunities and dangers to keep us on our toes.

    Bonus: Learn how to play the game

  • Silver Enters Bear Market As Hedgies Flee

    After tagging $19 the night of Trump's victory, Silver prices have tumbled 15% (the biggest drop since Summer 2013's taper tantrum). However, as large speculators dumped their longs en masse, this week also marked another milestone as Silver drops 24% from its post-Brexit peak (above $21) and entered a bear market once again.

    As the dollar surges, Bloomberg reports that gold and silver holdings in exchange-traded funds are set for the biggest monthly drop in more than three years.

    “Everyone is looking for a December rate hike, and that’s what’s been priced into gold and silver at the moment,” Tom Kendall, head of precious metals strategy at ICBC Standard Bank Plc, said by phone from London.

     

     

    “The dollar remains a key driver.”

    And, just as we have seen in gold futures, hedge fund speculative longs in silver are also decling rapidly…

     

    And this selling pressure has slammed Silver to six-month lows (down 24% from Brexit highs in June)…

     

    But, as Dana Lyons' Tumblr explains, Silver prices are testing a confluence of potential support levels.

    We often get questions about our technical analysis on specific assets or securities, especially as it pertains to potential support or resistance levels on the chart. We don’t post many of those types of charts anymore but we present one today in the chart of the popular iShares Silver Trust, ticker, SLV. The impetus was partially because of the amount of attention on PM’s, but primarily due to a potential inflection point on the chart.

    Everyone asks “when is XYZ going to bottom”? There is no way to ever know for sure. The best thing you can do is identify the most likely points of support in order to put the best odds of success on your side. And the best setups are always when multiple key potential support levels line up in the same vicinity. Such a setup may be present now in the chart of SLV, in our view.

    So what are the potential support levels?:

    • The 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of the November-August Rally ~15.62
    • The 500-Day Simple Moving Average ~15.64
    • The June 7 closing price (15.60) from which SLV gapped up, launching it on its final run to 19.71

    As the chart shows, SLV is testing this level today. In fact, the low of the day was exactly 15.60.

    image

    So will this 15.60 level hold? Obviously nobody knows for sure. At least there are multiple key levels of potential support there, however. That puts decent odds of success with the silver bulls – as well as giving them a level with which to play off of. If SLV remains above there, it can bounce. If it closes below there without an immediate reversal, perhaps there is more downside to come for silver prices.

    How far will SLV bounce if it holds? Obviously, we can’t know that either. There appears to be considerable potential resistance near 16.80 and just above 18.00, if the SLV does bounce. So, that would be about 7-15% of upside – without even breaking the post-summer intermediate-term downtrend. It would take a lot more strength to convince us that the post-2015 uptrend is resuming. So, even holding this level doesn’t mean it’s up, up and away again for silver.

    For now, precious metals fans will have to be satisfied with, “Hi Ho Silver, A-Bounce!”

    *  *  *

    More from Dana Lyons, JLFMI and My401kPro.

  • On A Personal Note…

    With raw newsflow in the financial, political, economic and geopolitical realms hurtling ever faster – scrambling toward some yet unknown climax – facilitated by a world that has never been more interconnected, and where the noise to signal ratio (especially over the past few months courtesy of certain… events) has hit unprecedented levels, sometimes we get so focused on trying to share our own, unique (we hope) vision and take on things, that we lose connection, and direct communication, with the only thing that really matters for this little project: our readers.

    That would be you.

    Without you, dear reader, this website would not exist.

    The truth is that while we always try to represent, interpret and explain events as they happen objectively and in real time (a challenge which at times is literally painful) we may not get everything right or accurate, but we try.

    We try to do as well as we can within the confines of our modest staffing, infrastructure and financial capabilities. Unlike media behemoths and “titans” of industry, many of whom have infinitely more in resources and outside “access”, our growth is only possible if you – dear reader – keep coming back. Incidentally, and contrary to various amusing rumors, Zero Hedge does not, and has never had any financial, political, or any other affiliation or relation to an external entity or organization; no we are not funded by the KGB, no we are not on Trump’s secret payroll, no we have never raised one dollar of outside funding. From day one, all our revenue has been through advertising, and your kind donations.

    Which, simply stated, means that we write what we believe in, even if it is ultimately proven to be dead wrong. And always remember: there is no such thing as “absolute truth.”

    Which is not to say readers should accept everything, or anything, at face value. Quite the contrary: as we have warned since the very start, our main intention, while informing readers, has been to make them think critically – to present a different side to things, even if it is ultimately dead wrong. For pete’s sake, this a blog after all, not some established pillar of the fourth estate with editors, sub-editors, reporters, journalists, crossword puzzle makers, back office, and so forth. 

    This should be nothing new: for those still unfamiliar, here is a brief excerpt from our “full disclosure” policy, which we hope most of you are familiar with:

    The reality is, critical readers should read analytic posts and the rest of Zero Hedge with the blanket assumption that the author is totally “conflicted.”  (Phrased more logically, that the author stands to benefit from being right- imagine that).  This turns the conversation to the content, and away from the author, the author’s biography and the contents of their IRA account / blind trust.  This (the content) is, of course, where the focus should be.  If you think otherwise you might be one of those people who thinks it was a good idea for a news program hosted by Dan Rather, and where viewers spend 66% of the non-commercial time watching his mug, to be in HDTV.  If you still get something out of our writing with the assumption that we are invested in our position and stand to gain personally from you believing us, well, we’ve done our job.  If not, then our being “unconflicted” isn’t going to change the fact that we have a weak argument or poorly reasoned prose.  At least, if you’re not one of the “optics” idiots.

     

    People, you don’t test a safe under ideal conditions for the safe and call it good.  You test it with all the advantages to the burglar.  And then you let the burglar cheat.  If it still remains closed after that, then it’s secure.

    We wrote the above in 2009. In light of the recent unprecedented implosion of trust in the “mainstream”, it has never been more relevant, and we bring it up because in recent weeks the tension between the so called “mainstream” and “alternative” medias has never been greater.  Perhaps that’s a good thing.

    However, no matter how the growing conflict within the fourth estate turns out, we would like you – our reader – to know that we have survived this long, nearly eight years since our modest start in January 2009, in the process clocking in nearly three billion page views, because of your faith in us and the fact that you – for whatever reason – keep coming back.

    And for that, from the entire tiny staff here at Zero Hedge, we thank you.

  • All Aboard The Post-TPP World

    Authored by Pepe Escobar, originally posted op-ed via Strategic-Culture.org,

    A half-hearted near handshake between US President Barack Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin before and after they spoke «for about four minutes», standing up, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Lima, Peru, captured to perfection the melancholic dwindling of the Obama era.

    A whirlwind flashback of the fractious relationship between Obama and «existential threats» Russia and China would include everything from the Washington-sponsored Maidan in Kiev to Obama’s «Assad must go» in Syria, with special mentions to the oil price war, sanctions, the raid on the ruble, extreme demonization of Putin and all things Russian, provocations in the South China Sea – all down to a finishing flourish; the death of the much vaunted Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) treaty, which was reconfirmed at APEC right after the election of Donald Trump.

    It was almost too painful to watch Obama defending his not exactly spectacular legacy at his final international press conference – with, ironically, the backdrop of the South American Pacific coast – just as Chinese President Xi Jinping all but basked in his reiterated geopolitical glow, which he already shares with Putin. As for Trump, though invisible in Lima, he was everywhere.

    The ritual burial, in Peru’s Pacific waters, of the «NATO on trade» arm of the pivot to Asia (first announced in October 2011 by Hillary Clinton) thus offered Xi the perfect platform to plug the merits of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), amply supported by China.

    RCEP is an ambitious idea aiming at becoming the world’s biggest free trade agreement; 46% of global population, with a combined GDP of $17 trillion, and 40% of world trade. RCEP includes the 10 ASEAN nations plus China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand.

    The RCEP idea was born four years ago at an ASEAN summit in Cambodia – and has been through nine rounds of negotiations so far. Curiously, the initial idea came from Japan – as a mechanism to combine the plethora of bilateral deals ASEAN has struck with its partners. But now China is in the lead.

    RCEP is also the fulcrum of the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) – a concept that was introduced at an APEC meeting in Beijing by, who else, China, with the aim of seducing nations whose top trade partner is China away from entertaining TPP notions.

    RCEP – and even FTAAP – are not about a new set of ultra-comprehensive trade rules (concocted by US multinationals), but the extension of existing deals to ASEAN and key nations in Northeast Asia, South Asia and Oceania.

    It didn’t take experienced weathermen to see which way the Pacific winds are now blowing. Peru and Chile are now on board to join RCEP. And Japan – which was negotiating TPP until the very last breath – has now steered the drive towards RCEP.

    The Sultan gets into the action

    Meanwhile, Putin and Xi met once again – with Putin revealing he’s going to China next spring to deepen Russian involvement in the New Silk Roads, a.k.a. One Belt, One Road (OBOR). The ultimate objective is to merge the Chinese-led OBOR with the development of the Russia-led Eurasia Economic Union (EEU).

    That’s the spirit behind 25 intergovernmental agreements in economy, investment and nuclear industry signed by Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in St. Petersburg in early November, as well as the set up of a joint Russia-China Venture Fund.

    In parallel, almost out of blue, and with a single stroke, Turkey President Tayyip Erdogan, on the way back from a visit to Pakistan and Uzbekistan, confirmed what had been all but evident for the past few months; «Why shouldn't Turkey be in the Shanghai Five? I said this to Mr. Putin, to (Kazakh President) Nazarbayev, to those who are in the Shanghai Five now… I think if Turkey were to join the Shanghai Five, it will enable it to act with much greater ease».

    This bombshell of course refers to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which started in 2001 as the Shanghai Five – China, Russia and three Central Asia nations, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (Uzbekistan joined later) – as a security bloc to fight Salafi-jhadism and drug trafficking from Afghanistan.

    Over the years, the SCO has evolved much further – into an Asia integration/cooperation mechanism. India, Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and Mongolia are observers, with India and Pakistan to be admitted as full members arguably by 2017, followed by Iran. Turkey (since 2013) and Belarus are SCO «dialogue partners».

    Wily Erdogan made his SCO opening in conjunction to stressing Turkey did not need to join the EU «at all costs». That’s been more than evident since Erdogan survived the July coup and unleashed a hardcore crackdown that’s been met with horror by Brussels – where the 11-year (so far) negotiations for Turkish accession are all but stalled. And France, the number two EU power after Germany, will inevitably block it further on down the road, whoever is elected President next year.

    Turkey joining the SCO, in the long run, alongside Iran, India and Pakistan, would represent yet another key node of Eurasia integration, as the SCO is progressively interlocked with OBOR, EEU, China’s Silk Road Fund, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and even the BRICS’s New Development Bank (NDB), which will start financing projects for group members and then expand to other nations in the Global South. Moscow and Beijing would welcome Ankara with open arms.

    Whatever the contours of Trump’s China/Asia foreign policy, Eurasian integration will proceed unabated. China is advancing its own simultaneously internal and external pivot, involving the tweaking of financial, fiscal and tax policies to drive consumption in retail, health, travel and sports in parallel to the OBOR drive all across Eurasia, all the way to solidifying an economic superpower.

    TPP – or NATO on trade, the Asian version – is just a scalp in a long and winding road. And on the South China Sea, dialogue is slowly edging out the confrontation fomented throughout the Obama administration.

    At APEC, Xi also met with Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte – and called for China and the Philippines to go for maritime cooperation. A practical result is that Philippine fishermen will continue to have access to Scarborough Shoal, the fertile fishing ground inside the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ) that has been under Chinese control since 2012. Beijing also pledged assistance to Philippine fishermen in alternative industries – such as aquaculture.

    Call it the Trans-South China Sea Partnership.

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Today’s News 24th November 2016

  • Order Out Of Chaos: The Defeat Of The Left Comes With A Cost

    Submitted by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    As I noted in my last article World Suffers From Trump Shellshock – Here’s What Happens Next, there are two primary consequences of a Trump presidency that actually serve globalists and elites in the long run.

    The first is the consequence of a perfect scapegoat for the economic crisis which the elites have been gestating since 2008.  Trump enters the White House with a clear political mandate, a mandate that supposedly gives conservatives more power than at any other time in U.S. history.  This mandate might seem like a miracle, a free hand of power to sovereignty and liberty champions to defeat the collectivist tyranny of cultural Marxists on the Left once and for all.  However, it could also backfire, because under this mandate EVERYTHING bad that happens under Trump’s watch can be blamed on Trump and his followers.  Conservatives have been given almost absolute influence over government (or apparent influence); by extension, they also inherit absolute responsibility, whether they like it or not.

    I examined this first consequence in detail in numerous articles leading up to the 2016 election.  In fact, it is the primary reason why I was so certain Trump would be president.  He is the perfect scapegoat, or the perfect conduit.  Under Trump, the last stage of economic collapse can finally be initiated by the financial elites and most of the world including half the population of the U.S. will immediately and without question blame conservatism, nationalism, sovereignty advocates and Trump for the disaster.  They won’t think twice about looking in the direction of global bankers.

    For those that immediately scoff at such a notion, I highly recommend they research the concept of 4th Generation Warfare.  I also highly recommend study into a Department of Defense paper called 'From Psyop To Mindwar: The Psychology Of Victory', written by Major Michael Aquino (a self proclaimed “satanist”) and Colonel Paul Vallely (today a self proclaimed liberty champion).  I would also compel people to read 'The Art Of War' by Sun Tzu, the same manuscript that all recruits of the CIA are required to read.

    The essence of the most advanced form of warfare is the ability to defeat an opponent, or a population, without having to fight at all.  Instead, the master tactician seeks to influence his opponent to surrender without fighting, or, to influence his opponent to destroy himself.  This is accomplished primarily through propaganda, subversion, asymmetric warfare (terrorism and insurgency) and most importantly, co-option.

    As I noted in my last article, if you want to be able to accurately predict future events, you must understand the minds of the people with the most influence over those events.  The financial elites, highly motivated and highly organized, are the single most important gatekeepers to geopolitical change today.  Know their mind, and you will know the general path tomorrow will take.

    This is not to say that the elites are “omnipotent.”  Frankly, they don’t need to be.  With the utter lack of vigilance and awareness within our society, the elites only need to be relatively intelligent and exceedingly morally bankrupt to manipulate the masses. When skeptics argue with me that the elites would “have to be omnipotent to influence the social narrative in the manner I describe,” I have to laugh.  Any person of above-average intelligence and unlimited capital (as the financial elites have) can do considerable damage to a society, bring empires to their knees and condition the populace to think and react in a specific fashion.

    If I had the same resources at my disposal as the elites have (and the same lack of conscience), I could probably do a far better job than they when manipulating geopolitical outcomes. They make numerous mistakes if you pay close attention to their actions.  I hardly consider myself the smartest person around, let alone “omnipotent.”  This is a silly notion.  The reality is, the more ignorant the population, the easier it is to control and misdirect them.  To the ignorant, the elites might seem “omnipotent.” They aren’t; they merely have more-intelligent-than-average people at their disposal and printing presses to pay for everything they want.

    The smarter and more vigilant any given population, the more difficult it is to influence them through deception.  This is very simple.  To put it even more bluntly, the elites get away with subversive tyranny because there are too many willfully stupid people.

    Following this line of thinking, there is a second consequence of Election 2016 that greatly concerns me — the potential for co-option of the Liberty Movement, the only existing opposing force to globalism.  Co-option requires the centralization of a group in thought and deed under the influence of a small number of hands, or a single white knight figure.  As I noted in my article Will A Trump Presidency Really Change Anything For The Better?, published in March of this year:

    "The other ingenious aspect of the Trump campaign is really who he is running against — Hillary Clinton, a rabidly liberal candidate even more hated than Barack Obama. A candidate with a potentially serious criminal record and a penchant for an outright communistic world view far beyond that of Bernie Sanders. Those of us who have been in the writing field for a long time and have dabbled in fiction know that in order to create a fantastic hero, you must first put even more work into creating a fantastic villain. The hero is nothing without the villain."

    The unmitigated horror inherent in the prospect of a Hillary Clinton presidency is like adding jet fuel to the Trump campaign. (And yes, I am assuming according to the results of the primaries so far that the final election will be between Trump and Clinton).

    And, as I explained in my article Clinton Versus Trump And The Co-Option Of The Liberty Movement published in September:

    "Whenever you have a rebellion focused on the inherent ideals of freedom, totalitarian institutions struggle to intervene. The issue is, freedom is not only moral, but practical. Wherever true freedom exists, people are not only happier, but more productive and prosperous. It’s hard for a tyrant to fight a rebellion based on freedom because the idea is more powerful than any weapon or any form of treachery. No matter how advanced the tyranny is, and no matter how many rebels they imprison or kill, the idea of freedom endures.

     

    The only way to destroy a rebellion like this, a rebellion like the liberty movement, is to make it about something other than freedom. The powers that be have to convince that movement to support policies that are destructive to their own ideals. If this can be done, then that rebellion has lost the advantage of principle — the only advantage that really matters."

    The co-option of the liberty movement is not necessarily direct.  It can be achieved through what I call “absorption.” Take note that the mainstream media and elitists avoid using the label “liberty movement” at all costs because this is something we labeled ourselves many years ago.  Instead, they seek to control what we are called; labeling us “populists” of the “Alt-Right.”  The liberty movement has been fighting the globalists in the information war for a long time.  The average conservative Republican is new to this party, and yet the liberty movement is being called the “Alt-Right?”

    Even Bloomberg pointed out with relative glee that the Tea Party (liberty movement), a movement which leftists despise with every fiber of their being, could be devoured by Trump’s campaign and reconstituted into something else.  Read their editorial The Tea Party Meets Its Maker, but only if you have a strong stomach.

    In the battle against the Marxist left, it is important that we do not lose track of our original identity, or the elites at the top of the pyramid.  Also important is that we do not forsake our original principles in order to achieve “victory” over our adversaries.  This is a very difficult problem to discuss when you consider who we are fighting against.

    I have always said that it was the social justice cult and their zealotry that drove the rise of Trump.  It was they that created the public firestorm with their open contempt for our right to free thought and free expression.  But keep in mind, this has all happened before, and with terrible results.

    In Europe during the 1920s and early 1930s, the overall rise of Fascism was in direct response to economic crisis and the insurgency of communism.  Communism is essentially collectivism on the far left side of the political spectrum. Fascism is a collectivist trap the "Right" sometimes falls into.  Both lead to centralization and tyranny.

    Communism is tyranny in the name of undermining the strong and independent in order to make room for the weak.  Fascism is tyranny in the name of routing out the weak to make room for the strong.

    It is these two political extremes that the elites have used over the past century to dominate geopolitical outcomes.  Again, for those who are skeptical I highly recommend the extensive research and evidence presented by Antony Sutton, who outlined succinctly the FACT that both the Bolshevik Revolution and the rise of the Third Reich were funded and managed by Wall Street moguls and international banking interests.

    The elites are notorious for playing the extreme left against the right in order to drive conservatives to the opposite extreme.  My concern is not only that through Trump the elites can easily scapegoat conservative movements for a global economic crisis, but also that through the intense vitriol of the social justice left, infuriated by their loss to Trump in the election, conservatives may be driven to abandon their constitutional ideals and become the monster they hoped to destroy.

    Carroll Quigley, CFR elitist and mentor to Bill Clinton, was highly open about the plans of globalists to establish one world governance in his book “Tragedy And Hope.”  The following quote from Carroll Quigley’s Dissent: Do We Need It? could be taken as anti-right propaganda, but I take it as a warning that the elites see potential exploitation of the political right in America:

    “For example, I’ve talked about the lower middle class as the backbone of fascism in the future. I think this may happen. The party members of the Nazi Party in Germany were consistently lower middle class. I think that the right-wing movements in this country are pretty generally in this group.”

    Again, the liberty movement cannot be defeated by the globalists directly.  If the fight comes down to an open confrontation between freedom versus globalism, the globalists will inevitably lose.  Instead, it appears to me that the globalists are more than happy to either allow Trump into the White House, or to install him in the White House as a means to rewrite the liberty movement into a villainous character, rather than the rebellious hero of our story.

    So far it would seem that the temptations to revert to fascism are many.  Set aside the threat of ISIS terrorism and think about the insanity showcased by the Left.

    When I mentioned in my last article the crippling of social justice, I did not mention that this could have some negative reverberations.  With Trump and conservatives taking near-total power after the Left had assumed they would never lose again, their reaction has been to transform.  They are stepping away from the normal activities and mindset of cultural Marxism and evolving into full blown communists.  Instead of admitting that their ideology is a failure in every respect, they are doubling down.

    When this evolution is complete, the Left WILL resort to direct violent action on a larger scale, and they will do so with a clear conscience because, in their minds, they are fighting fascism.  Ironically, it will be this behavior by leftists that may actually push conservatives towards a fascist model.  Conservatives might decide to fight crazy with more crazy.

    The mainstream media and popular media largely controlled by leftist elements are only pouring gasoline on the fire, with major pundits and media personalities steadily hinting at “revolution” in the face of a “Trumpist” America.  But here is the thing, these people are kidding themselves.

    The alternative media is eclipsing corporate media today.  Their time is coming to an end.

    Leftists including groups like Black Lives Matter are also ill equipped to violently combat a conservative movement with a lifetime of experience in arms and the will to use them.  If the Left leaps into the realm of violent Marxist revolution, they will lose in America.  That said, there is a cost.

    The cost could very well be the heritage of freedom that conservatives desire to protect.  The alternative media may overrun the corporate media, but will we become the corporate media in the process?

    If under Trump conservatives fall to temptation and exploit the “ring of power” that is government to exert dominance in the name of stopping the Left, then they will ultimately be destroyed as well.

    In this case history will not remember conservatives as freedom fighters rebelling against globalist machinations, but as evil “populists” that caused global economic collapse and the re-establishment of the institution of fascism.  The globalists can swoop in after the dust has settled and use the American collapse fable as a story to tell children for the next century.  A reminder that nationalism and sovereignty are harbingers of war and death.  Conservatism will be abhorred as “deplorable,” an ugly ideal akin to Nazism.

    At this point, the globalists will have won, for no other philosophy contrary to globalism will ever exist again.  No one would want to associate themselves with historical “villains” and bogeymen.

    As I have mentioned consistently, I have no idea whether or not Donald Trump is aware of this potential trap.  I also have no idea if he was sincere in his campaign or simply telling people what they wanted to hear.  At this time, his consideration of neo-con political elites and Goldman Sachs bankers for cabinet positions does not leave a positive impression.  And, his seeming refusal to commit to prosecution of Hillary Clinton (which I also predicted) for her obvious crimes is a warning bell of liberty advocates.

    My position is that the Liberty Movement must always remain the Liberty Movement if conservatives and sovereignty proponents want a chance to survive.  We have to be willing remain just as watchful and critical of Trump as we would have been with Hillary Clinton.  And, if he breaks his promises or goes against his oath to the constitution, we must be willing to go to war with him, just as we would have with Clinton.

    This puts us in a tenuous position — fighting the Left is bad enough.  Going against Trump if he steps out of line is worse, because then we can be labeled leftists as well.  This is the essence of 4th Generation warfare — cornering an opponent so that each move he makes is a sacrifice.  If the opponent is not careful, he might just destroy himself.

    There is a way to undermine this strategy by the elites; as conservatives we must treat Trump like a new employee.  We have to put him on probation and watch him, not give him the keys to the store on the first day.  We must also continue to educate fellow conservatives (and any on the Left that have the sense to listen) that this fight is FAR from over.  In fact, it has just begun.  In the end, our strategy must be for the Liberty Movement to absorb the "Alt-Right", instead of being absorbed.  And, we must focus our efforts and actions against top globalists and their organizations rather than only focusing on the regressive left.

    People must understand that the real threat in all of this has been and always will be the globalists.  Instead of fighting each other in a futile theater of the absurd, we must fight and remove them from the chess board, wherever and whenever they show their faces in the daylight.

  • Mexican Cement Company Offers To Help Trump Build His "Big, Beautiful, Powerful" Border Wall

    As Trump gears up to take the oval office, vendors are already lining up to get a piece of his massive infrastructure projects, including his “Big, Beautiful, Powerful Border Wall.”  Ironically, one of the first vendors to publicly announce their interest in bidding on the border wall is none other than Mexican cement producer, Grupo Cementos de Chihuahua.  While Trump’s border wall has been fiercely protested by numerous senior elected officials in Mexico, including former President Vicente Fox, Grupo Cementos’ CEO admits “we can’t be choosy.”

    A Mexican cement maker is ready to lend its services to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to build the wall he wants to erect on the southern border of the United States to curb immigration.

     

    “We can’t be choosy,” Enrique Escalante, Chief Executive Officer of Grupo Cementos de Chihuahua (GCC) said in an interview. “We’re an important producer in that area and we have to respect our clients on both sides of the border.”

     

    Based in Chihuahua, a large northern state bordering Texas and New Mexico, GCC is one of the biggest construction materials companies in Mexico. It generates around 70 percent of its sales in the United States, where it also has three plants.

     

    Escalante said Trump’s plans to invest in energy and infrastructure in the United States augured well for the firm.

     

    “For the business we’re in, Trump is a candidate that does favor the industry quite a bit,” Escalante said.

    Luckily for Trump, and Grupo Cementos, the National Enquirer has already drawn up “construction plans & blueprints.”

     

    Meanwhile, as TMZ points out, “Bikers 4 Trump” have already started building a commemorative border wall of their own just outside of Atlanta.  For the bargain price of $60 per brick, or $100 for two, you too can purchase a custom-etched brick for the wall.

    Bikers 4 Trump tells TMZ they’ve been plugging away for a couple months on a brick border wall of their own, which they plan to move to the Mexican border should Trump ever get the real deal constructed.

     

    We’re told they already have 200 bricks stacked in Atlanta next to State Hwy 49, and they feature names like Antonio Sabato Jr. and Joe Bonsall ?of The Oak Ridge Boys. Bricks have also been purchased in Scott Baio, Ted Cruz and Ted Nugent’s names — although none made their own donation.

    Trump wall

     

    And, lest you thought this was a joke, here is some video of the newly etched bricks hot off the press and bound for the Atlanta wall.

     

    What more is there to say?  The next 4 years are going to be surreal.

    Trump

  • Startling Look At How Much Money Food Stamp Recipients Spend On Junk Food

    A new study just released by the USDA, offers a very detailed look at exactly how participants in the “Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program” (SNAP, aka Food Stamps) spend their taxpayer-funded subsidies.  Unfortunately for taxpayers, the amount of money spent on soft drinks and other unnecessary junk foods/drinks is fairly staggering.  But, we suppose it’s a nice taxpayer funded subsidy for the soda industry…so score one for Warren Buffett and the Coca Cola lobbyists.

    Per the study, nearly $360mm, or 5.4% of the $6.6BN of food expenditures made by SNAP recipients, is spent on soft drinks alone.  In fact, soft drinks represent the single largest “commodity” purchased by SNAP participants with $100mm more spent on sodas than milk and $150mm more than beef.

    Soft drinks were the top commodity bought by food stamp recipients shopping at outlets run by a single U.S. grocery retailer.

     

    That is according to a new study released by the Food and Nutrition Service, the federal agency responsible for running the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), commonly known as the food stamp program.

     

    By contrast, milk was the top commodity bought from the same retailer by customers not on food stamps.

     

    In calendar year 2011, according to the study, food stamp recipients spent approximately $357,700,000 buying soft drinks from an enterprise the study reveals only as “a leading U.S. grocery retailer.”

     

    That was more than they spent on any other “food” commodity—including milk ($253,700,000), ground beef ($201,000,000), “bag snacks” ($199,300,000) or “candy-packaged” ($96,200,000), which also ranked among the top purchases.

    SNAP

     

    Even worse, when we added up all of the commodities that would typically be considered “junk food” (i.e. soft drinks, candy, cakes, energy drinks, etc.), we found that roughly $950mm, or just over 14% of the aggregate $6.6BN of food expenditures made by SNAP recipients, is spent on unnecessary, unhealthy products.

    SNAP

     

    As CNS News points out, the study was conducted by IMPAQ international and analyzed the sales of a single national retail chain back in 2011. 

    The dollar amount that food stamp recipients spent on soft drinks and other commodities comes from data a retailer provided to a data analysis company the federal government hired to find out what kind of foods people on foods stamps—and Americans not on foods stamps—were buying.

     

    “The Food and Nutrition Service (FNS) awarded a contract to IMPAQ International, LLC, to determine what foods are typically purchased by households receiving Supplemental Nutrition Assistant Program (SNAP) benefits,” the study explained. “This study examined point-of-sale (POS) food purchase data to determine for what foods SNAP households have the largest expenditures, including both SNAP benefits and other resources, and how their expenditures compare to those made by non-SNAP households.”

     

    “POS transaction data from January 1, 2011 through December 31, 2011 from a leading grocery retailer were examined for this study,” the report said.

    It’s a good thing democrats re-branded Food Stamps as the “Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program”….otherwise we would have confused it for a blatant waste of taxpayer money on sodas and energy drinks.

  • Obama Admin Fines, "Forces Sheriff's Dept. To Hire" Illegal Immigrants

    Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

    The lawlessness of the Obama Administration knows no bounds.

    Not only has President Obama made every move he can through executive order to create and foster amnesty for illegal immigrants, but his Justice Department is now attempting to force people to hire undocumented workers.

    Ironically, the agency on the other end of intimidation is the Denver County Sheriff’s Office.

    Incredibly backwards…

    via the Daily Caller:

    Denver County’s sheriff office has been slapped with a fine by the Department of Justice (DOJ) because it refused to hire non-citizens as deputies.

     

    From the beginning of 2015 through last March, the Denver Sheriff Department went on a major hiring binge, adding more than 200 new deputies. But those jobs ended up only going to citizens, because the department made citizenship a stated requirement on the job application. The department admitted as much in a new settlement with the U.S. government, which requires it to pay a $10,000 fine.

     

    The department will also have to comb through all of its job applications from the past two years, identifying immigrants who were excluded from the hiring process and giving them due consideration.

    How can someone be hired to enforce the law, if they are living in violation and ignorance of it?

    How can counties, state agencies, small businesses or individuals be forced to hire in violation of the law, in order to comply with non-discrimination?

    Obviously the system has a logical loop failure, either that, or someone wants this country to eat itself.

  • Truth in Numbers- Bad math as a propaganda and sales tool

    It’s no surprise that the largest employer of mathematicians in the United States is the National Security Agency.  These jobs are not all ‘codebreakers’ – why does the NSA employ so many mathematicians, second only to Wall St.?  

    The biggest secret propaganda and sales tool used by experts in the modern world is the deliberate twisting and false presentation of data, specifically – numbers and ‘statistics.’  They do so in such a subtle way, that the argument leads into a heated debate about the inference of the obvious conclusions – NOT the calculation of the numbers themselves!  Very rarely are the methods of statistical calculations, data collection, formulations, and other operations ever questioned.

    This is used by governments, to paint a picture they want, in the case of the military, to ‘sell war’ – as outlined eloquently by mathematician Nassim Taleb:

    When Pasquale Cirillo and I examined the historical accounts of wars for our statistical analysis of violence, we discovered huge holes –people take numbers for gospel, yet many accounts were fabrications. Many historians, political “scientists”, and others for fall for them, then get to write books. For instance we saw that the scientific entertainer Steven Pinker based his analysis of the severity of the An Lushan rebellion on a shoddy overestimation –the real numbers of casualties could to be lower by an order of magnitude. Much of Pinker’s thesis of drop in violence depends on the past being more violent; it thus gets further discredited (the thesis is shaky anyway as Pinker’s general assertions conflict with the statistical data he provides). Peter Frankopan, in his magesterial The Silk Roads, seem to get the point: estimations of casualties from the Mongol invasions were inflated as their accounts exaggerated the devastation they caused in order to intimidate opponents (war is not so much about killing as it is about bringing submission). Our main (technical) paper is here.  But it is not just the bullshitting of Steven Pinker: numbers for many wars seem to have been pulled out of a hat. Some journalist cites some person at a conference; it finds it way to Le Monde or the New York Times, and that number becomes fixed for future generations. For our attempt to build a rigorous method of quantitative historiography, we devised statistical robustness techniques: they consist in bootstraping “histories” from the past, considering the past a realization between the lowest and the highest estimate available, producing tens of thousands of such “historical paths” and evaluate how “robust” an estimator to changes in the aggregate. More depressingly, we found that no historian had bothered to do similar cleaning up work or robustness check –yet the statistical apparatus is there to help.

    (In case you haven’t heard of Nassim Taleb this book is a MUST READ as a primer for any trader or investor to understand MATH as it pertains to the MARKETS:  Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets.  Taleb is no academic he runs a multi-billion dollar hedge fund).

    Inflated numbers of enemy casualties, or deflated numbers of aggressor casualties, pose an obvious example of why such agencies would use bad math to display data in such a way as to further their argument, for one side or another.  But what other examples?  Why would Wall St. use such a strategy, considering their entire business is numbers?

    Consider the example of the Fed and interest rate policy.  If the current interest rates are 1%, and the Fed hikes to 2%, that’s a 1% increase but in percentage terms, it’s a 100% increase!  If you had interest rate derivatives, you could with no leverage potentially earn a 100% return on your money, in a day (supposing it was a surprise and the market wasn’t already pricing in the hike). 

    Another popular statistical misconception, is that of loss recovery.  Recovering from a loss is not linear.  For example, if your fund has a 10% loss, you need 11.11% just to break even.  This becomes more extreme, the deeper the loss hole.  If you start with 100 units, lose 10% of them – you have 90.  But to increase from 90 back to your original starting 100, you need 11.11 units, which is 11% just to get back your lost 10 units.  Yes!

    And speaking about performance, let’s knock the industry standard performance capsule and its big gaping hole.  According to most reporting standards, such as prescribed by NFA, FINRA, and many others – funds report monthly performance based on a ‘snapshot’ of performance during that month.  This sounds reasonable until you actually calculate monthly performance numbers and see that it’s really only performance based on a 1 or 2 day period intra-month.  If there was a big profit or a big loss on the days taken as ‘snapshots’ that’s what will show in the capsule.

    What’s misleading about this, it doesn’t represent to investors what happened DURING the month.  For many strategies, this is not relevant – but for some strategies, it is very relevant.  For example, imagine a scenario where there was a huge 30% loss and then recovery, and the month ended up being 2% positive.  It would seem to be a low-volatility fund, and likely attract conservative investors, like Pension funds.  They wouldn’t know about the intra-month risk, unless the manager told them (but why would they, it’s not in the required documents, and maybe THEY don’t even know about it).

    However you add it up, the difference between balance and equity can be misleading.  Skipping the monthly performance capsules that 99% of Wall St. uses, if one has access to it, one can compare the balance and equity curves over time.  For those who don’t know, balance is closed positions, equity includes live trades.  So if a position is still open, the floating profit or loss will show up in the equity.  Take a look at this discrepancy:

    The red line is the balance, yellow/orange line is the equity.  These lines must separate when trades are placed, otherwise an account would never lose or gain.  But how wide are these gaps, how frequent are they?  Absent of rigorous statistical analysis as done by Taleb in his war casualties paper, comparing these 2 lines is the most basic form of drawdown analysis.  What caused the lines to diverge?  What dates did they diverge on, and what forces caused them to converge?  These are questions astute investors should be asking.  

    For a full education on statistical analysis, checkout Fortress Capital’s Introduction to Foreign Exchange.  For a pocket guide designed to make you a due diligence expert, checkout Splitting Pennies – Understanding Forex for only $6.11 on kindle, or get some awesome financial books here.

  • Risky Parity Panic Strikes As Correlations Crash To Record Low

    Having exploded higher in the run-up to the election, market expectations of the correlation between stocks within the S&P 500 have completely collapsed since to new record lows.

    Simply put, massive systemic overlays were placed ahead of the election event, and were forced to be unwound increasingly aggressively as the post-Trump rally caught everyone offside (the unwind would mean relatively heavy selling of Index protection relative to single-name protection).

    As a reminder, implied correlation measures the relative demand for macro overlays (index hedges) vs micro risk (individual stock hedges/concerns). The higher it is, the more systemically worried investors are and the more traders believe a high correlation 'event' is due (typically the high correlation event is a big downturn in stocks).

    As The Wall Street Journal reports, sectors and styles in the S&P 500 index have started to move independently after seven years of depressed volatility and tighter correlations.

    While the S&P 500 climbed to a record for a second day on Tuesday, “there are elements of a bull market and a bear market at the same time,” said Andrew Wilkinson, chief market analyst at Interactive Brokers.

    “You’re seeing pressure on different sectors. In a typical bull market, you’re going to get all stocks going higher.”

     

    “It makes it very interesting for the stock picker and the active manager who’s on his game,” Mr. Wilkinson said.

     

    The relationship between growth and value stocks in the benchmark equity measure has also decoupled, with the rolling correlation between the two groups sliding since voting day, FactSet data show. A Republican sweep of the U.S. presidency and Congress has boosted the inflation outlook, pushing investors into value names. Before the election, investors crowded into growth companies in 2015 amid a sluggish economy and then poured money into low-volatility equities in the first half of this year.

    But it is not just correlations between individual stocks that is crashing. The correlation between bonds and stocks has collapsed back to its norms

     

    Which, as we noted previously, is raising notable concerns over a risk-parity fund blow up. As BofA warns: "Latent risk remains worth monitoring, as (i) leverage is still near max levels across a variety of risk parity  parametrizations, (ii) bond allocations are historically elevated, and (iii) markets continue to be sceptical of a 2016 Fed hike."

    If BofA is correct, it would mean that a day which sees a -4% SPX drop and +1% bond rally (good diversification) would generate no selling pressure, "underscoring the critical role played by bond-equity correlation in governing the severity of risk parity unwinds."

     

    However, a troubling scenario is one where even a relatively benign 2% selloff of the S&P coupled with just a 1% selloff of the 10Y could result in up to 50% deleveraging, which in turn would accelerate further liquidations by other comparable funds, and lead to a self-fulfilling crash across asset classes.

     

    Which incidentally sounds like precisely the scenario that could happen when the Fed tries to raise rates, and is also why asset classes continue to move without fear of any rate hike, as they now realize – very well – just how trapped the Fed truly is. That said, in short order, we will see if the Fed, for once, has the intestinal fortitude to actually raise rates in the face of the extreme volatility awaiting equities in the event they do… we doubt it.

    As RBC's Charlie McElligott notes, the classic risk-parity pain-trade ensues— developed mkt sovereign bonds, stocks, EM, credit and commodities (ex-crude) all under the cosh right now at the same time (shocker–a strategy built on a core concept of ‘negative correlation btwn bonds and risk stocks’ is going to be exposed in a regime change of this magnitude).

    And as the chart below shows, Risk Parity funds are plunging…

    As is clear, he massive decoupling between stocks and risk-parity funds is not unpredented… but has not ended well in the past (for stocks).

  • Half Of The Population Of The World Is Dirt Poor – And The Global Elite Want To Keep It That Way

    Submitted by Michale Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

    Could you survive on just $2.50 a day?  According to Compassion International, approximately half of the population of the entire planet currently lives on $2.50 a day or less.  Meanwhile, those hoarding wealth at the very top of the global pyramid are rapidly becoming a lot wealthier.  Don’t get me wrong – I am a very big believer in working hard and contributing something of value to society, and those that work the hardest and contribute the most should be able to reap the rewards.  In this article I am in no way, shape or form criticizing true capitalism, because if true capitalism were actually being practiced all over the planet we would have far, far less poverty today.  Instead, our planet is dominated by a heavily socialized debt-based central banking system that systematically transfers wealth from hard working ordinary citizens to the global elite.  Those at the very top of the pyramid know that they are impoverishing everyone else, and they very much intend to keep it that way.

    Let’s start with some of the hard numbers.  According to Zero Hedge, Credit Suisse had just released their yearly report on global wealth, and it shows that 45.6 percent of all the wealth in the world is controlled by just 0.7 percent of the people…

    As Credit Suisse tantalizingly shows year after year, the number of people who control just shy of a majority of global net worth, or 45.6% of the roughly $255 trillion in household wealth, is declining progressively relative to the total population of the world, and in 2016 the number of people who are worth more than $1 million was just 33 million, roughly 0.7% of the world’s population of adults. On the other end of the pyramid, some 3.5 billion adults had a net worth of less than $10,000, accounting for just about $6 trillion in household wealth.

    And since this is a yearly report, we can go back and see how things have changed over time.  When Zero Hedge did this, it was discovered that the wealth of those at the very top “has nearly doubled” over the past six years, and meanwhile the poor have gotten even poorer…

    Incidentally, we tracked down the first Credit Suisse report we found in this series from 2010, where the total wealth of the top “layer” in the pyramid was a modest $69.2 trillion for the world’s millionaires. It has nearly doubled in the 6 years since then. Meanwhile, the world’s poorest have gotten, you got it, poorer, as those adults who were worth less than $10,000 in 2010 had a combined net worth of $8.2 trillion, a number which has since declined to $6.1 trillion in 2016 despite a half a billion increase in the sample size.

    If these trends continue at this pace, it won’t be too long before the global elite have virtually all of the wealth and the rest of us have virtually nothing.

    Perhaps you are fortunate enough to still have a good job, and you live in a large home and you will sleep in a warm bed tonight.

    Well, you should consider yourself to be very blessed, because that is definitely not the case for most of the rest of the world.  The following 11 facts about global poverty come from dosomething.com, and I want you to really let these numbers sink in for a moment…

    1. Nearly 1/2 of the world’s population — more than 3 billion people — live on less than $2.50 a day. More than 1.3 billion live in extreme poverty — less than $1.25 a day.
    2. 1 billion children worldwide are living in poverty. According to UNICEF, 22,000 children die each day due to poverty.
    3. 805 million people worldwide do not have enough food to eat. Food banks are especially important in providing food for people that can’t afford it themselves. Run a food drive outside your local grocery store so people in your community have enough to eat. Sign up for Supermarket Stakeout.
    4. More than 750 million people lack adequate access to clean drinking water. Diarrhea caused by inadequate drinking water, sanitation, and hand hygiene kills an estimated 842,000 people every year globally, or approximately 2,300 people per day.
    5. In 2011, 165 million children under the age 5 were stunted (reduced rate of growth and development) due to chronic malnutrition.
    6. Preventable diseases like diarrhea and pneumonia take the lives of 2 million children a year who are too poor to afford proper treatment.
    7. As of 2013, 21.8 million children under 1 year of age worldwide had not received the three recommended doses of vaccine against diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis.
    8. 1/4 of all humans live without electricity — approximately 1.6 billion people.
    9. 80% of the world population lives on less than $10 a day.
    10. Oxfam estimates that it would take $60 billion annually to end extreme global poverty–that’s less than 1/4 the income of the top 100 richest billionaires.
    11. The World Food Programme says, “The poor are hungry and their hunger traps them in poverty.” Hunger is the number one cause of death in the world, killing more than HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis combined.

    So how did we get here?

    Debt is the primary mechanism that takes wealth from ordinary people like you and me and puts it into the hands of the global elite.

    In my recent article entitled “Why Donald Trump Must Shut Down The Federal Reserve And Start Issuing Debt-Free Money“, I discussed how the Federal Reserve was designed to entrap the U.S. government in an endless debt spiral from which it could never possibly escape.  And that is precisely what has happened, as the U.S. national debt has gotten more than 5000 times larger since the Federal Reserve was created in 1913.

    In that very same year, the federal income tax was instituted, and that is a key part of the program for the global elite.  You see, the income tax is how wealth is transferred from us to the government.  And then a continuously growing national debt is how that wealth is transferred from the government to the elite.

    It is a very complicated system, but at the end of the day it is all about taking money from us and getting it into their pockets.

    And at this point more than 99.9 percent of the population of the world lives in a country with a central bank, and almost every nation on the planet has some form of income tax.

    It is a global system that is designed to create as much debt as possible, and I recently shared with my readers that the total amount of debt in the world has hit a staggering all-time record high of 152 trillion dollars.

    The borrower is the servant of the lender, and the global elite have used various forms of debt to turn the rest of the planet into their debt slaves.

    As debt levels race higher and higher all over the planet, the elite are using the magic of compound interest to grab a bigger and bigger share of the pie.

    Given enough time, those at the very top would have virtually everything and the rest of us would have virtually nothing.  The middle class is shrinking all over the globe, and the gap between the wealthy and the poor continues to grow at an astounding pace.

    But the vast majority of people out there have no idea how money, debt, taxes and central banks really work, and so they have no idea that this is purposely being done to them.

    The truth is that we don’t have to have this much global poverty, and if we correctly identify the root causes of this poverty we can start working on some real solutions.

  • Russia Is Reviving Soviet Era ICBM-Carrying "Nuclear Trains"

    Russia has conducted successful intercontinental ballistic missile tests intended for its Barguzin “nuclear-train” program. 

    The tests for Russia’s “railway-based combat rocket system” took place on Plesetsk cosmodrone two weeks ago, Interfax reports and were “fully successful” according to a military source, which would “pave the way for further flight tests.” The tests were held to test the missiles’ launch readiness, Russian press added. 


    A BZhRK with a Molodets missile erected to launch position

    The mobile weapons platform, made up of several train carriages designed to conceal the launchers of six Yars or Yars-M thermonuclear ICBMs and their command units, are expected to enter service between 2018 and 2020.

    After first announcing the return of the nuclear trains, which had previously been banned, in 2014 Russia’s military then confirmed the trains are expected to be put into service in 2019. The nuclear trains, dubbed Berguzin after the strong eastern wind that blows over the Lake Baikal, aim to counter US’s Conventional Prompt Global Strike project, which would give the Pentagon the capability of launching attacks and precision strikes at any target in the world in one hour.

    The Berguzins, which act as mobile platforms to transport and launch nuclear missiles, will be able carry up to 6 RS-24 Yars missiles, the International Business Times reported.  According to RT, Yars missiles can reportedly carry four warheads for a total yield of between 0.4 and 1.2 megatons.  While the missiles are less destructive than their predecessors, the Molodets missiles, they are more accurate, have a greater range and weigh roughly half as much. The lighter weight means that trains on which they are loaded do not require reinforced wheel-sets to carry the load.

    This makes it harder for enemy spy satellites to identify the trains, as the carriages can be easily disguised as refrigerator cars. Once the trains are deployed, Russia will be in possession of 36 megatons of mobile and ready-to-fire nuclear missiles.

    The commander of the Strategic Missile Forces, Colonel-General Sergei Karakayev, said the state-of-the-art Barguzin complex would outstrip its Soviet predecessor in all respects, including accuracy and range. Once launched, the complex will be in service until 2040.

    During Soviet times, the Strategic Missile Forces had three divisions of rail-mobile missile systems “Molodets” (NATO reporting name SS-24 “Scalpel”). They were stationed in the Kostroma, Perm and Krasnoyarsk regions.

    There were 12 “nuclear trains” in total, each carrying three missiles. The complexes entered service in 1987, just a few years prior the collapse of the USSR. The West dubbed the Soviet weapon “ghost trains.” The rail mobile missile complexes were disposed of from 2003 to 2005 without extending their life.   The “Molodets” nuclear trains were part of the START-2 Treaty for arms reductions.

    The new Barguzin project does not have a goal to revive the erstwhile Soviet military project. This is an entirely new development. One of the obvious advantages of Barguzin trains is their mobility, although Soviet rail-mobile missile complexes were too heavy. It is worthy of note that the development of such systems does not come contrary to the START-3 agreement.

    Russia’s latest advancement in its nuclear weapons technology comes shortly after the Kremlin announced the deployment of nuclear-capable missiles to the Kaliningrad exclave, as was reported previously. President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told reporters that the Russian military needs to respond to what he described as Nato’s aggressive moves.

    “Russia is doing what is necessary to protect itself amid Nato’s expansion toward its borders,” Mr Peskov said adding that “the alliance is a truly aggressive bloc, so Russia does what it has to do. It has every sovereign right to take necessary measures throughout the territory of the Russian Federation.”

    According to overnight press reports, Moscow also deployed new anti-ship missiles on Pacific islands controlled by Russia but also claimed by Japan. Bal and Bastion missile systems have been stationed on the islands, called the southern Kurils by Russia and the Northern Territories by Japan, the Boyevaya Vakhta (Combat Duty) newspaper of Russia’s Pacific Fleet reports.

    The disagreement over the islands, seized by the Soviet Union at the end of World War II, has kept the two countries from signing a peace treaty formally ending their wartime hostilities.

  • Another Day, Another Record High… "This Is A No Brainer"

    Some thoughts for tomorrow…

     

    First things first… Small Caps were up again today – of course – the 14th straight day of gains and the longest streak since Feb 1996. Russell 2000 is the most overbought since 2003…7th Intraday recod high in a row… 8th record close in a row, most since 1996

     

    The nasdaq closed red today as S&P scrambled into the green at the close…

     

    With that silliness out of the way… As Americans give thanks for Donald Trump's wealth creation miracle, we thought some context for the last few weeks might be useful…

    The US Dollar spiked today near 102.00 – and is at almost 14 year highs…

     

    China's Yuan has crashed as the dollar soars – breaking above 6.95/$ today – 8 year lows…

     

    Emerging Market Currencies plunged to new lows…

     

    Gold has been monkeyhammered (jammed below $1200 today), back to 10 month lows…

     

    And as Gold collapses, so Small Caps have soared… (do those moves look human at all? perfectly linear ramp squeeze)

     

    As The record squeeze continues…

     

    But while stocks have continued to soar, long-bonds have trodden water for 8 days (though 30Y did breakout to the upside briefly today)…

     

    Even though the short-end has seen yields spike to the hghest since April 2010…

     

    And everywhere we look relationships have broken…

    Stocks and volume…

     

    US equity factors have decoupled…

     

    Small Caps and credit sensitivity has broken…

     

    And Small Cap and Mega Cap Tech have decoupled…

     

    Banks and the yield curve have snapped…

     

    Bank stocks and bonds have no idea…

     

    EM Bonds and Stocks…

     

    Bond yields are above stocks…

     

    As Yuan crashed today, Treasury yields decoupled…

     

    Oil price and protection costs have decoupled…

     

    US Treasury yields are notably underperforming global developed market bonds…

     

    Gold broke below $1200 today…

     

    As Gold/Silver rolls over from Brexit highs…

     

    Gold and The Dow are equal YTD…

     

    And finally, while Americans luxuriate in their feats tomorrow, consider that post-Trump the aggregate of Global stock markets and developed market bonds have lost $1.4 trillion since the US election…

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Today’s News 23rd November 2016

  • 4-Star General Convinces Trump to Reconsider Pro-Torture Stance

    I slammed Trump in March for calling for more torture and waterboarding.

    I pointed out that the overwhelming majority of military and intelligence experts say that torture prevents the ability to obtain helpful information, makes us less safe, decreases national security and only creates more terrorists.

    Saturday, Trump met with a very high-level military man: Four-Star General James Mattis , former head of the U.S. Central Command, Unified Combatant Command and  U.S. Joint Forces Command, as well as being Supreme Allied Commander Transformation.

    The New York Times reports:

    On the issue of torture, Mr. Trump suggested he had changed his mind about the value of waterboarding after talking with James N. Mattis, a retired Marine Corps general, who headed the United States Central Command.

     

    “He said, ‘I’ve never found it to be useful,’” Mr. Trump said. He added that Mr. Mattis found more value in building trust and rewarding cooperation with terrorism suspects: “‘Give me a pack of cigarettes and a couple of beers, and I’ll do better.’”

     

    “I was very impressed by that answer,” Mr. Trump said.

     

    Torture, he said, is “not going to make the kind of a difference that a lot of people are thinking.”

    Exactly …

  • Is "Fake News" The New 'Conspiracy Theory'?

    Via The Daily Bell,

    Barack Obama on fake news: ‘We have problems’ if we can’t tell the difference The US president denounced the spate of misinformation across social media platforms, including Facebook, suggesting American politics can be affected. -Guardian

    Is fake news the new “conspiracy theory.” We’ve read that it may be, and it seems likely to us.

    That’s because “conspiracy theory” has seemingly lost credibility as a way of dismissing anti-mainstream critiques, and it can be argued that “fake news” is being substituted.

    We recently wrote about the decline and fall of “conspiracy theory” as an effective denigration of Deep State critiques. You can see the article here.

    This make sense to us because the CIA was apparently responsible for disseminating the initial “conspiracy theory” meme, and “fake news” could certainly have been developed to take its place.

    Secondly, as reportedly some 50 percent of Americans now believe in so-called “conspiracies,” it’s very obvious a elite replacement was needed.

    Some caveats: Regarding this second point, it’s very likely that many more than 50 percent of Americans believe in conspiracy theories. And the substitution of “fake news” is a very unappealing alternative.

    More:

    President Barack Obama has spoken out about fake news on Facebook and other media platforms, suggesting that it helped undermine the US political process.

     

    “If we are not serious about facts and what’s true and what’s not, if we can’t discriminate between serious arguments and propaganda, then we have problems,” he said during a press conference in Germany.

     

    Since the surprise election of Donald Trump as president-elect, Facebook has battled accusations that it has failed to stem the flow of misinformation on its network and that its business model leads to users becoming divided into polarized political echo chambers.

    Our mission is to cover elite memes – propaganda that scares people into giving more control to the government – and having Obama comment on “fake news” is part of a standard meme reinforcement.

    The “fake news” meme is all over search-engine news and prominent people like Obama are speaking out about the meme and basically endorsing it.

    But it all strikes us as rather desperate.

    Conspiracy Theory is far less prone to analysis than “fake news.” It has persisted so long and been so successful because it is difficult to quantify a “conspiracy” and thus the dismissal cannot be either confirmed or denied.

    “Fake news” however, lends itself to fact-checking. One may not wish for a variety of reasons to delve into “conspiracy theory,” but if someone is told he or she is espousing fake news, the resultant irritation may move that person to further research.

    When we coined the term Internet Reformation, our idea was that the information available via the ‘Net would generate a gradual process of enlightenment – and an accretion of truth. In fact, this process is occurring, in fits and starts.

    If “conspiracy theory” really has lost impact – and apparently it has – as a way of debunking criticism of the Deep State, this is certainly a setback for modern propaganda.

    Additionally, “when it comes to “fake news,” the mainstream media is going to have to speak with one voice in order to disparage factual information.

    But fewer and fewer people believe the mainstream media. Thus, if the media places its communicative muscle behind tarring certain cogent criticisms as “false,” it will likely only speed up the decline of mainstream credibility.

    Conclusion: Of course, those in power could ban the Internet outright, but it’s probably too late for that – and wouldn’t work effectively in any case.

  • Is The US Next: Facebook "Quietly" Develops Censorship Tool In Chinese Market Push

    In what is surely a mere coincidence, at the same time as Facebook has been embroiled in a scandal involving the dissemination of “election tipping” stories, which prompted Zuckerberg to release a 7-point plan to eradicate “fake news” and which many conservatives believe is a preamble toward wholesale banning of so-called “fake news” websites (as arbitrarily defined by an ultra-liberal,  Trump-bashing “professor”) by the social networks (when ironically, Wikileaks revealed that Google was actively engaged in developing a “strategic plan” to help the Democrats win the election and track voters), we learn that in an attempt to penetrate the Chinese market, Facebook has “quietly” developed a censorship tool to appease China’s politburo in hopes the social network will finally get the blessing to address the world’s largest market.

    According to the NYT, which first reported Facebook’s strategy, the social network “has quietly developed software to suppress posts from appearing in people’s news feeds in specific geographic areas, according to three current and former Facebook employees, who asked for anonymity because the tool is confidential. The feature was created to help Facebook get into China, a market where the social network has been blocked, these people said. Mr. Zuckerberg has supported and defended the effort, the people added.

    Why would Zuckerberg support an effort that goes fundamentally against the premise of free speech? Why ad revenue, and profits, of course, because while it remains to be seen if organic revenue growth in the rest of the world is topping out, suddenly getting access to the Chinese market means making a compromise unlike any done previously in Facebook’s history.

    To be sure, Facebook has restricted content in other countries before, such as Pakistan, Russia and Turkey, in keeping with the typical practice of American internet companies that generally comply with government requests to block certain content after it is posted. According to its own data, Facebook blocked roughly 55,000 pieces of content in about 20 countries between July 2015 and December 2015, for example. But the censorship tool in China takes a step further by preventing content from appearing in feeds in China in the first place.

    The NYT adds that Facebook does not intend to suppress the posts itself. Instead, it would offer the software to enable a third party — in this case, most likely a partner Chinese company — to monitor popular stories and topics that bubble up as users share them across the social network, the people said. Facebook’s partner would then have full control to decide whether those posts should show up in users’ feeds. In effect, Facebook is willing to admit its sold out its integrity to a third-party Chinese vendor and arbiter, simply to boost revenue, and its stock price (we are confident FB’s stock price will rise on the news that the company may be close to penetrating the Chinese market, no matter the cost).

    Of course, there is the possibility that once the story becomes public that Facebook is now officially in the censorship game, that it may shelve plans: after all, the last thing Zuckerberg needs now is to be accused not only of spreading “fake news” but of engaging in premeditated censorship due to ideology or bias. The Facebook employees the NYT spoke with cautioned that the software is one of many ideas the company has discussed with respect to entering China and, like many experiments inside Facebook, it may never see the light of day. The feature, whose code is visible to engineers inside the company, has so far gone unused, and there is no indication that Facebook has offered it to the authorities in China. Although, it is hard to imagine why Facebook would spend millions developing such a project if it had no intention of using it.

    Worse, the project illustrates the extent to which Facebook may be willing to compromise one of its core mission statements, “to make the world more open and connected,” to gain access to a market of 1.4 billion Chinese people. Even as Facebook faces pressure to continue growing — Mr. Zuckerberg has often asked where the company’s next billion users will come from — China has been cordoned off to the social network since 2009 because of the government’s strict rules around censorship of user content.

    But what may be the most interesting part of this story, is that Facebook’s creeping censorship may have led to an internal “whistleblower” with a conscience: a Facebook “Snowden: if you will:

    Several employees who were working on the project have left Facebook after expressing misgivings about it, according to the current and former employees.

    An official statement from the company was non-committal: a Facebook spokeswoman said in a statement, “We have long said that we are interested in China, and are spending time understanding and learning more about the country.” She added that the company had made no decisions on its approach into China.”

    Censorship notwithstanding, Zuckerberg may have trouble breaching the Chinese market even purely on its “redacted” merits: coming at a time when Trump is actively preparing for trade war with China, the last thing Xi Jinping will want to do is make a political concession that grants Facebook market share in China at the expense of protected domestic companies.

    Indeed, as NYT adds, the current climate for internet companies in China may not help Facebook. In August, the ride-hailing giant Uber gave up an expensive battle to crack the Chinese market, selling its Chinese business to an incumbent rival, Didi Chuxing. More broadly, China has streamlined and tightened its controls over the internet under President Xi, targeting influential social media celebrities and adding new reviews to popular online video sites.

    However, China may allow Facebook to enter, on one condition: that it is used to root out political dissidents, making the social network into a “snitch”:

    Some officials responsible for China’s tech policy have been willing to entertain the idea of Facebook’s operating in the country. It would legitimize China’s strict style of internet governance, and if done according to official standards, would enable easy tracking of political opinions deemed problematic. Even so, resistance remains at the top levels of Chinese leadership.

    Ultimately, what Facebook may end up doing is transforming itself into a mutant, minority version of itself where it keeps a portion of the upside, while letting a bigger partner deal with the local political headache: analysts have said Facebook’s best option is to follow a model laid out by other internet companies and cooperate with a local company or investor. Finding a partner — and potentially allowing it to own a majority stake in Facebook’s China operation — would take the burden of censorship and surveillance off the Silicon Valley company. It would also let Facebook rely on a local company’s government connections and experience to deal with the difficult task of communicating with Beijing, the NYT notes.

    Facebook currently sells advertising for some Chinese businesses from its Hong Kong office. Among its customers are state-media sites that act as the propaganda arm of the Chinese government, and that operate official accounts where they post articles. Chinese citizens who wish to gain access to Facebook must tunnel in using a technology known as a virtual private network, or VPN.

    * * *

    Going back to the censorship tool, it is unclear when it originated, but the project is said to have picked up momentum in the last year, as engineers were plucked from other parts of Facebook to work on the effort, the current and former employees said. The project was led by Vaughan Smith, a vice president for mobile, corporate and business development at Facebook, they said. Like Mr. Zuckerberg, Mr. Smith speaks a smattering of Mandarin.

    Unveiling a new censorship tool in China could lead to more demands to suppress content from other countries. The fake-news problem, which has hit countries across the globe, has already led some governments – most notably Germany – to use the issue as an excuse to target sites of political rivals, or shut down social media sites altogether.

    Curiously, for whatever reason, several Facebook employees who were working on the suppression tool left the company over the summer. Internally, so many employees asked about the project and its ambitions on an internal forum that, in July, it became a topic at one of Facebook’s weekly Friday afternoon question-and-answer sessions.

    Mr. Zuckerberg was at the event and answered a question from the audience about the tool. He told the gathering that Facebook’s China plans were nascent. But he also struck a pragmatic tone about the future, according to employees who attended the session.

    “It’s better for Facebook to be a part of enabling conversation, even if it’s not yet the full conversation,” Mr. Zuckerberg said, according to employees.

    And if Facebook is willing to go the full distance and compromise its core mission statement in China just to pick a few basis points of growth, how long until the social network will do the same in the US, where a witch-hunt against “fake news” unlike any other, has exploded in recent days and which effectively grants Facebook the ability to censor anyone it disagrees with. After all, we now know that the tool is in place – all Zuckerberg has to do is flip a switch.

  • Obama Legacy Already Crumbling As Federal Judge Blocks Overtime Rule

    Ever a big fan of unilateral “rule changes,” back in May of this year Obama and the Department of Labor implemented a new overtime regulation that was set to take effect on December 1st.  The rule change called for increasing the minimum salary threshold at which employers would have been required to pay overtime to workers from $23,660 to $47,476, or a mere 101%.  The rule would have required employers to pay time-and-a-half to salaried workers making less than $47,476 per year for any time worked in excess of 40 hours per week.  According to the Wall Street Journal, the new regulation would have cost employers about $2BN per year.

    But, all that changed today when a federal judge in the Eastern District of Texas signed a preliminary injunction (attached at the end of this post) temporarily blocking the rule from taking effect next week to allow more time for litigation.  Of course, the delay will be viewed by the Plaintiffs, and many employers around the country, as an outright victory as it likely postpones any final decisions until Trump takes over over the White House in January.  And with Trump already signaling his intentions to roll back many of Obama’s “job-killing” regulations we suspect this one will get moved to the top of his list.   

    The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) praised the court’s decision as a huge victory for small business owners, 44% of which they claim would be directly impacted by the rule change.

    “This is a victory for small business owners and should give them some breathing room until the case can be properly adjudicated,” NFIB President and CEO Juanita Duggan said in a statement.

     

    The NFIB claimed that 44 percent of small businesses employ at least one person who would have been subject to the higher overtime pay.

     

    Duggan said the NFIB would continue to fight against the rule, which she said would raise small business expenses by forcing them to pay their employees overtime.

    Of course, the “political hacks” (as Trump refers to them) in the Department of Labor have asserted that the impact of this simple “rule change” would all accrue to the benefit of employees as American corporations and shareholders would simply allow the increased costs to flow straight through to their bottom lines.  Per the DOL:

    • Put more money into the pockets of many middle class workers—or give them more free time.
    • Prevent a future erosion of overtime protections and ensure greater predictability.
    • Strengthen overtime protections for salaried workers already entitled to overtime and provide greater clarity for workers and employers.
    • Improve work-life balance.
    • Increase employment by spreading work.
    • Improve workers’ health.
    • Increase productivity.

    Overtime

     

    But, as our readers certainly understand, in the real world these increased regulations inevitably just lead to higher unemployment over the long-term as the higher costs simply make returns on automation and mechanization capital projects that much more attractive.

    As the Wall Street Journal points out, employers have spent the last 6 months frantically trying to figure out how to comply with the new rule amid uncertainty as to whether or not it would survive multiple open lawsuits and/or a Trump reversal once he takes over the White House in January.  While some companies had already taken actions to comply with the new law, it is now looking increasingly like those actions were premature.

    U.S. employers have spent months adjusting employee schedules, job duties and pay ahead of a new overtime rule that takes effect Dec. 1.

     

    The regulation, which makes millions more workers eligible for overtime pay, was intended as one of President Barack Obama’s signature achievements, and a way to meaningfully raise incomes for people in front-line roles in retail, food service and beyond.

     

    The fate of the rule, however, is far from assured as it faces both a strong challenge in the courts and, in Donald Trump, the president-elect, who has vowed to roll back business regulations.

     

    Employers who have made or are considering big changes in their workforce—either by raising managers’ salaries to the newly set threshold for overtime pay or eliminating job categories like assistant manager—say the uncertainty is adding to the challenge of preparing for the rule.

     

    The Labor Department rule will require employers to start paying overtime to workers earning salaries of less than $47,476 a year—a threshold the business community says is too big a jump from the current $23,660, which was last updated in 2004. Some workers whose salaries exceed the threshold can qualify for overtime pay depending on job duties.

    Per the Department of Labor, the overtime rule change would impact 4.2mm workers across the country with California, Texas, Florida and New York bearing the brunt of the impact.

    Overtime Rule

     

    The Department of Labor even created this lovely propaganda video to sale everyone on the merits of Obama’s latest regulation…which we’re sure cost taxpayers millions of dollars.

     

    Meanwhile, the CEO of Fazoli’s beautifully illustrates our point above that the practical implementation of “rule changes” imposed by “political hacks” is often very different than what’s expected.

    Fazoli’s Chief Executive Carl Howard said his restaurant chain couldn’t afford to raise salaries for its 125 assistant general managers to the new threshold. (They generally earn in the low $30,000s, he said.) Yet, he wanted them to continue working 45 hours a week, as they do now, without cutting pay.

     

    So Mr. Howard will make them hourly employees at rates low enough to fund a 45-hour week, including five hours of overtime at time-and-a-half.

    How many times will the uninformed left try to impose new regulations that actually hurt the people they’re trying to help before finally learning the error of their ways?

     

  • Obama Pressured To Free Central American "Asylum Seekers" Before Trump Takes Over

    Just two days ago we shared our complete shock that Obama’s justice department agreed to stay a federal court case, that would have granted amnesty to 4 million illegal immigrants, citing a “change in Administration” (see “Trump Wins Again – Obama DOJ Halts Amnesty Lawsuit In Uncharacteristic Display Of Humility“).  But some immigration advocates are refusing to give up the fight and, as Bloomberg notes, are urging Obama to use his last couple of months in office to release nearly 4,000 “asylum seekers” from Central America currently being held in “jail-like” facilities in Texas and Pennsylvania.

    Immigration advocates are asking the Obama administration to release thousands of detained Central American women and children who want asylum in the U.S., citing concerns that Donald Trump will deport them after his inauguration in January.

     

    Representatives of groups including the Women’s Refugee Commission and the American Immigration Lawyers Association met with White House officials last week to discuss a host of immigration issues, including the fate of about 4,000 Central American detainees, some as young as two years old, who have fled violence in their home countries. They’re housed in jail-like facilities in Texas and Pennsylvania, some for more than a year, as they wait for the government to process their asylum pleas.

     

    “The family detention infrastructure is something that President Obama built, and unless he tears it down in the next two months this will be part of his presidential legacy,” said Carl Takei, staff attorney at the the American Civil Liberties Union’s National Prison Project.

    Asylum Seeker

     

    Meanwhile, proving once again that the rules mean absolutely nothing to the left, democrats have called on President Obama to go one step further and “pardon” 750,000 illegal immigrants brought to the U.S. as small children.  That said, even the Obama administration admits that its power only extends so far and can’t be used to grant legal status to illegal aliens. 

    Separately, advocates for about 750,000 young undocumented immigrants granted protection from deportation under Obama’s Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or DACA, have pressed the White House to ensure Trump can’t use data compiled by the program to instead target and remove the people from the country. House Democrats called on Obama last week to issue a presidential pardon for the immigrants, who were brought into the country as children and have grown up as “Americans,” Obama said in Nov. 14 news conference.

     

    The White House said last week that the president’s clemency power can’t be used to confer legal status on undocumented residents. Pete Boogaard, a White House spokesman, declined to comment on whether the administration has the authority to release the asylum seekers.

    Amnesty

     

    Of course the urgency comes as Trump is set to take office in less than two months and has promised to deport millions of illegal immigrants from the U.S., starting with those that have criminal records.  Meanwhile, panic is setting in along the border as migrants staying in cramped shelters or
    church basements are trying to leave the border region for cities
    farther north such as Baltimore or New York…“there’s literally not enough commercial bus space to get the people out….they’re all terrified.” 

    Trump has promised to crack down on undocumented border crossers while also restricting refugees from terror-prone countries, but he has yet to articulate a policy for the thousands of asylum seekers who enter the U.S. each year. Trump’s top immigration advisers, including Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach and Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions, a Republican who Trump plans to nominate as attorney general, have argued that Obama has been too easy on migrants.

     

    “Instead of removing illegal immigrants, the President has expended enormous time, energy, and resources into settling newly arrived illegal immigrants throughout the United States,” Sessions wrote in a January 2015 “immigration handbook” for Republicans.

     

    Under Trump, the advocates fear, the government could broaden the use of expedited removal -– fast-track deportation proceedings that take place without a judge — a practice that is already being used more frequently with asylum seekers.

    “There is an added urgency to make sure that the families that are here get an opportunity to be heard in front of a judge,” said Ben Johnson, executive director at the American Immigration Lawyers Association. “There is some concern that those families under the new administration will never have that chance.”

    Stay tuned, though Obama has refused to take any unilateral actions on immigration since election day, we wouldn’t be shocked if he dropped a couple of surprises on the American people before departing the White House in two months.

  • Privatize to Get Rid of Passports and Resolve Immigration

    Via The Daily Bell
    Privatize to Get Rid of Passports and Resolve Immigration

    To silence dissidents, Gulf states are revoking their citizenship  Many are left stateless as a result. – The Economist

    The Economist “newspaper” is worried that nations are beginning to use passports as a way to punish people that leaders don’t like.

    This article focuses mainly on the Middle East, especially Bahrain, which the article calls an “energetic stripper.”

    More here:

    Bahrain’s … Sunni royals have dangled the threat of statelessness over its Shia majority to suppress an uprising launched in 2011, during the Arab spring.

    In 2014 it stripped 21 people of their nationality. A year later the number was up tenfold. “Gulf rulers have turned people from citizens into subservient subjects,” says Abdulhadi Khalaf, a former Bahraini parliamentarian whose citizenship was revoked in 2012 and now lives safely in Sweden.

    “Our passports are not a birthright. They are part of the ruler’s prerogative.”  Neighbouring states are following suit. Kuwait’s ruling Al-Sabah family have deprived 120 of their people of their nationality in the past two years, says Nawaf al-Hendal, who runs Kuwait Watch, a local monitor.

    Qatar is another big stripper. It suspended citizenship of an entire clan — the Ghafrans— some 5,000 Ghafrans since 2004. But it’s not just travel that is affected when a passport is revoked, but also in many cases jobs, house ownership, even the ability to own a phone or maintain a bank account.

    If you are abroad, you cannot return, nor can the birth of a child be recorded, nor even a marriage. The laws allowing passport revocation are broader now, according to The Economist, and include the “terrorism,” which can be defined loosely.

    Loyalty is beginning to be used as a reason for passport removal, and the West is not exempt. Britain will remove passports based on the contravention of the “public good.” And many EU nations cite terrorism for some passport confiscations

    In the US, passports may be suspended by the IRS if overseas citizens owe more than $50,000 and the IRS has filed a notice of lien. However, the largest issue regarding passports remains unexamined by this article. And that issue has to do with the necessity for passports in the first place.

    It can be argued of course, that passports are an absolute necessity for nation-states, but passports are basically an invention of the 20th century. The Guardian tells us, “Passports were not generally required for international travel until the first world war.” Before then, passports were issued in a haphazard manner.  Here, from the Guardian:

    Following an agreement among the League of Nations to standardise passports, the famous “old blue” was issued in 1920. Apart from a few adjustments to its duration and security features, the old blue remained a steady symbol of the touring Briton until it gradually began to be replaced by the burgundy-coloured European version in 1988.

    INTERPOL is another form of global control that is less than 100 years old. Post-World War II, the United Nations has played a more active role in resuscitating and formalizing INTERPOL, see here.

    Thus, international control of people’s movements and actions has drastically increased in the 20th and 21st century. Passports are now starting to represent regions rather than countries. A pan-African passport was announced earlier this year at the African Union (AU) summit in the Rwandan capital Kigali. From the report:

    With the launch of the new pan-African document, the continent moved up a notch towards the free cross-border movement of goods and people—in direct opposite to Brexit, the decision by British voters to exit the European Union.

    Of course, one could argue that expanding a passport’s operational function is not the same as reducing the power of a passport. In fact, even as passports expanded in power and scope in the 20th century,  there were many high-level discussions about getting rid of them.

    From an article posted at Business Insider:

    In 1947, the first problem considered at an expert meeting preparing for the UN World Conference on Passports and Frontier Formalities, was “the possibility of a return to the regime which existed before 1914 involving as a general rule the abolition of any requirement that travelers should carry passports”.

    But delegates ultimately decided that a return to a passport-free world could only happen alongside a return to the global conditions that prevailed before the start of the first world war.

    By 1947, that was a distant dream. The experts advised instead a series of bilateral and multilateral agreements to attain this goal.

    World leaders were still talking about banning passports as late as 1963, when the UN Conference on International Travel and Tourism recognised “the desirability, from both an economic and social point, of progressively freer international travel”. Once again, it was estimated that “it is not feasible to recommend the abolition of passports on a world-wide basis.”

    Now, neither the public nor governments consider passports as a serious obstacle to freedom of movement, though any would-be traveller from Yemen, Afghanistan or Somalia would no doubt argue differently.

    The world survived without passports for thousands – tens of thousands – of years. Likewise, the necessity of an expanding, global police force has not historically been a matter of discussion, much less implementation. Yet today the passport system is globally ubiquitous and growing. INTERPOL is merging some operations with the UN and becoming evermore aggressive and empowered.

    The Economist article promotes the idea that passports ought to be seen as travel documents, not weapons of punishment. This is logical as far as it goes. But it never occurs to The Economist editors to argue that passports ought not to exist to begin with.

    The Economist like most of the mainstream media is always apt to criticize the powers that government has but never to suggest that the real solution is to do away with those powers.

    Even a passing familiarity with free-market economics would yield up options other than merely re-calibrating government power.

    Private property is the key to a better and more rational world. If people – rather than their governments – owned a substantial portion of the world’s real estate, immigration might soon cease to be a problem. People themselves would decide who would come and go. The poisonous immigration battles now taking place would be at least mitigated.

    Likewise, government abuse of passports would be considerably reduced if it were generally accepted that people had a right to invite people onto their own property without government permission.

    The argument then comes up that “terrorism” necessitates passports and government control over immigration. But even a cursory examination of the history of al Qaeda and ISIS will show that the West and especially the US fostered these terrorist groups to begin with.

    Here, from GlobalResearch.com:

    The so-called “War on Terror” should be seen for what it really is: a pretext for maintaining a dangerously oversized U.S. military. The two most powerful groups in the U.S. foreign policy establishment are the Israel lobby, which directs U.S. Middle East policy, and the Military-Industrial-Complex, which profits from the former group’s actions.

    Since George W. Bush declared the “War on Terror” in October 2001, it has cost the American taxpayer approximately 6.6 trillion dollars and thousands of fallen sons and daughters; but, the wars have also raked in billions of dollars for Washington’s military elite.

    Those controlling government are ever jealous of their prerogatives and the wealth they have access to. They will create an endless amount of crises to justify and expand their control. Government itself, based on monopoly power and resultant force, is purveyor of the problem, always.

    Conclusion: Reshaping public solutions does no good. Jettisoning them to greatest degree possible is the only viable solution.  

    Editor’s Note: The Daily Bell is giving away a silver coin and a silver “white paper” to subscribers. If you enjoy DB’s articles and want to stay up-to-date for free, please subscribe here

    More from The Daily Bell:

    Rand Corp. Blasts ‘Truth Decay’ – Wants Facts Determined by Appropriate Leaders

    How Deep Will Trump’s Truths Go?

    India Bans Cash, Now Gold?

     

     

  • A Highly Respected Medical Journal Just Declared 'The War On Drugs' An Epic Failure

    Submitted by Carey Wedler via TheAntiMedia.org,

    “The war on drugs has failed,” the editors of the peer-reviewed British Medical Journal declared this week, arguing that doctors should lead the global effort to reform drug policy.

    Fiona Godlee, the journal’s editor-in-chief, and Richard Hurley, its features and debates editor, penned an analysis citing academic and scientific reports to argue global policies on drug use — including the United Nations’ — have fallen drastically short.

    Godlee and Hurley note the annual cost of prohibition, which entails criminalizing “producers, traffickers, dealers, and users,” totals at least $100 billion annually.

    But the effectiveness of prohibition laws, colloquially known as the ‘war on drugs,’ must be judged on outcomes,” they write. “And too often the war on drugs plays out as a war on the millions of people who use drugs, and disproportionately on people who are poor or from ethnic minorities and on women.

    The authors cite a variety of reasons why the global war on drugs has been a failure.

    Citing an academic study on international drug policy from the Lancet medical journal, the authors argue that “prohibition and stigma encourage less safe drug consumption and push people away from health services.”

    These policies have other negative consequences. Godlee and Hurley highlight the current situation between Russia and Crimea, “where patients in Crimea died after the Russian invasion because they were forced to stop taking methadone, which is viewed as opioid misuse and illegal in Russia.”

    Further, though opioid addiction is a growing epidemic, “drug control policies effectively deny two-thirds of the world’s population—more than five billion people—legitimate access to opioids for pain control.”

    Another problem [pdf] with prohibition policies, they argue, is that “they impede research into medical use of cannabis and other prohibited drugs despite evidence of potential benefit.

    This is the case in the United States, where the federal government’s designation of cannabis as a Schedule I drug has hampered the ability of scientists to research the medical effects of the plant. The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) recently ruled to maintain this classification. This decision was largely deemed hypocritical, especially considering the United States government holds a patent on cannabis for its antioxidant properties. The federal government’s National Cancer Institute also admits cannabis can help treat the symptoms of cancer and that “[c]annabis has been shown to kill cancer cells in the laboratory.” In spite of the promise of the plant, it remains prohibited under federal law.

    Still, Godlee and Hurley argue, the effects of the drug war aren’t limited to health. They extend to the realm of human rights:

    All wars cause human rights violations, and the war on drugs is no different. Criminally controlled drug supply markets lead to appalling violence—causing an estimated 65 000-80 000 deaths in Mexico in the past decade, for example [pdf]. Mandatory sentencing for even minor drug offences has helped the United States attain the highest rate of incarceration in the world [pdf]. The Philippines has seen 5000 extrajudicial killings [pdf] since July, after President Rodrigo Duterte’s call for vigilantism against drug dealers.

    The paper also cites countries around the world that have moved to lessen the invasiveness of the drug war. They cite Portugal, which famously removed criminal penalties for drugs 15 years ago.

    Further, they note:

    Jurisdictions such as Canada, Uruguay, and several US states, now including California, and have gone further, to allow regulated non-medical cannabis markets, retaking control of supply from organised crime. The Netherlands has tolerated regulated cannabis sales for decades.”

    The editors of the BMJ acknowledge drugs can cause harm. But they argue “governments should decriminalise minor drug offences” and “strengthen health and social sector approaches,” as well as move toward regulated drug markets.

    Most importantly, they assert doctors should play a key role in developing drug policy.

    Health should be at the centre of this debate and so, therefore, should healthcare professionals. Doctors are trusted and influential and can bring a rational and humane dimension to ideology and populist rhetoric about being tough on crime.”

    The BMJ editors are not the first to condemn the war on drugs. Earlier this year, over 1,000 world leaders, scientists, and medical experts condemned the U.N.’s half-hearted effort to reform its drug policies. In a separate criticism of the U.N.’s proposed solutions, 194 advocacy groups also expressed disappointment.

    Similarly, a group of doctors in the United States called Doctors for Cannabis Regulation has advocated an end to marijuana prohibition in favor of regulation of the market.

    BMJ acknowledges efforts like these but asserts “such calls are far from universal—and far from loud enough.”

    Doctors and their leaders have ethical responsibilities to champion individual and public health, human rights, and dignity and to speak out where health and humanity are being systemically degraded.”

     

    Change is coming,” they conclude, “and doctors should use their authority to lead calls for pragmatic reform informed by science and ethics.”

  • "Emotionally F**king Pissed" Media Blows Embargo And Lashes Out At Trump – "F*ck Him"

    Just yesterday Trump called a summit of all the major mainstream media executives and anchors at Trump Tower.  While many expected the meeting to be an oppotunity to ask questions of the president-elect, the media elites apparently got the surprise of their lives when Trump spent the majority of the meeting attacking they’re blatant biased coverage the 2016 presidential elections referring to the room as a bunch of “dishonest, deceitful liars.”  One participant in the meeting described it as af—ing firing squad” after “Trump started with Jeff Zucker and said “I hate your network, everyone at CNN is a liar and you should be ashamed….”  We suspect that was rather less cordial than they expected.

    Despite the conversation being completely off the record, many of the “emotionally fucking pissed” media anchors have decided to blow their embargoes and lash out at Trump.  According to one source interviewed by the New Yorker, the meeting at Trump Tower was “fucking outrageous.”  The same source also questioned how he could remain impartial after the meeting saying “How can this not influence coverage?”…yes, because coverage was so impartial up until yesterday.

    Another participant at the meeting said that Trump’s behavior was “totally inappropriate” and “fucking outrageous.” The television people thought that they were being summoned to ask questions; Trump has not held a press conference since late July. Instead, they were subjected to a stream of insults and complaints—and not everyone absorbed it with pleasure.

     

    “I have to tell you, I am emotionally fucking pissed,” another participant said. “How can this not influence coverage? I am being totally honest with you. Toward the end of the campaign, it got to a point where I thought that the coverage was all about [Trump’s] flaws and problems. And that’s legit. But, I thought, O.K., let’s give them the benefit of the doubt. After the meeting today, though—and I am being human with you here—I think, Fuck him! I know I am being emotional about it. And I know I will get over it in a couple of days after Thanksgiving. But I really am offended. This was unprecedented. Outrageous!”

     

    Participants said that Trump did not raise his voice, but that he went on steadily at the start of the meeting about how he had been treated poorly. “It was all so Trump,” one said. “He is like this all the time. He’ll freeze you out and then be nice and humble and sort of want you to like him.”

     

    “But he truly doesn’t seem to understand the First Amendment,” the source continued. “He doesn’t. He thinks we are supposed to say what he says and that’s it.”

    And, as the eloquent Kellyanne Conway pointed out in her opening response last night on the Megyn Kelly show, negative reactions, like the one above, went a long way toward helping Trump win the presidency.

    “Fairness is actually not having presumptive negativity written about you and always assuming the worst about you.  And I think that Donald Trump has faced an unprecedented avalanche of critical coverage when he was running and frankly i think, in part, he owes his victory to that.  There was a backlash against the elites, a backlash against those who were telling Americans what is important to them.”

     

    What are the chances that the mainstream media figures out before 2020 that by relentlessly attacking Trump they’re actually helping him?

    * * *

    Here is our full coverage of the Trump “media summit” that was described by some as a “f—ing firing squad”:

    Earlier today we reported that in a “summit” organized by Trump’s campaign manager Kellyanne Conway, executives and anchors from the major US media outlets, including CNN president Jeff Zucker, ABC News president James Goldston, Fox News co-presidents Bill Shine and Jack Abernethy, and NBC News president Deborah Turness, visited Donald Trump at his Trump Tower penthouse for an off the record meeting.

    Courtesy of the Post, we have a complete list of the participants at the Trump media meeting: the hour-long powwow included top execs from network and cable news channels. Among the attendees were NBC’s Deborah Turness, Lester Holt and Chuck Todd, ABC’s James Goldston, George Stephanopoulos, David Muir and Martha Raddatz, CBS’ Norah O’Donnell John Dickerson, Charlie Rose, Christopher Isham and Gayle King, Fox News’ Bill Shine, Jack Abernethy, Jay Wallace, Suzanne Scott, MSNBC’s Phil Griffin and CNN’s Jeff Zucker and Erin Burnett.

    The contents of what was discussed were initially unclear.

    Wolf Blitzer

    Now, according to the Post and Politico, we learn that the President-elect “exploded at media bigs in an off-the-record Trump Tower powow on Monday.”

    It was like a f—ing firing squad,” one source told the Post.

    According to the Post’s recound of the conversation, “Trump started with Jeff Zucker and said I hate your network, everyone at CNN is a liar and you should be ashamed….”


    Jeff Zucker (left)

    “The meeting was a total disaster. The TV execs and anchors went in there thinking they would be discussing the access they would get to the Trump administration, but instead they got a Trump-style dressing down,” the source added. A second source confirmed the encounter.

    The Post adds that “the meeting took place in a big board room and there were about 30 or 40 people, including the big news anchors from all the networks…”

    “Trump kept saying, ‘We’re in a room of liars, the deceitful dishonest media who got it all wrong. He addressed everyone in the room calling the media dishonest, deceitful liars. He called out Jeff Zucker by name and said everyone at CNN was a liar, and CNN was network of liars.

    “Trump didn’t say Katy Tur by name, but talked about an NBC female correspondent who got it wrong, then he referred to a horrible network correspondent who cried when Hillary lost who hosted a debate – which was Martha Raddatz who was also in the room.

    “Gayle did not stand up, but asked some question, ‘How do you propose we the media work with you?’ Chuck Todd asked some pretty pointed questions. David Muir asked how are you going to cope living in DC while your family is in NYC? It was a horrible meeting.”

    Politico adds further details, according to which “Trump complained about photos of himself that NBC used that he found unflattering, the source said. Trump turned to NBC News President Deborah Turness at one point, the source said, and told her the network won’t run a nice picture of him, instead choosing “this picture of me,” as he made a face with a double chin. Turness replied that they had a “very nice” picture of him on their website at the moment.”

    Amusingly, since the meeting was off the record, meaning the participants agreed not to talk about the substance of the conversations, it means they will most likely be unable to confirm or deny the Post’s report.

    Politco’s recollection of events was slightly less dramatic:

    The New York Post on Monday afternoon portrayed a much more heated meeting, including a quote from one source who said the encounter was “like a f–ing firing squad.” The Post also said Trump called CNN journalists “liars” and that they should be “ashamed.” The source who spoke with POLITICO characterized the meeting as less intense, and said the discussion included Trump expressing the possibility of a “reset” of the tumultuous relationship between the president-elect and the media and that all he wants is “fairness.”

     

    Asked how he defines fairness by a network executive, Trump said simply, “The truth.” But aside from the few moments of contention in the beginning, the source said the meeting was largely substantive.

    Politico also adds that Trump, flanked by chief of staff Reince Priebus and campaign manager Kellyanne Conway at the table, also expressed annoyance at the protective press pool and the complaints over him ditching the press when he went out to dinner last week with his family after reporters were advised he was in for the night. But Priebus assured the attendees that the protective press pool will be taken care of and it would all work out.

    Other attendees at the meeting from Trump’s team included chief strategist Stephen Bannon, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, spokesman Jason Miller, and Republican National Committee chief strategist and communications director Sean Spicer.

    Asked for comment, Miller referred POLITICO to Conway’s comments to reporters after the meeting, in which she echoed the sentiments made in the meeting about turning over a new leaf with the media.

     

    “There was no need to mend fences,” Conway said. “It was very cordial, very genial. But it was very candid and very honest. From my own perspective, it’s great to hit the reset button.”

     

    Conway later on Monday hit back at the New York Post report. “He did not explode in anger,” she said.

    While one can have a subjective interpretuation of the nuances at the meating, one thing was clear: Trump’s attempt at a ‘reset’ will be frowned at by the media which is not used to this kind of treatment, even if the “kindler, gentler” version of events as reported by Politico is accurate.

    It also means that what has already been a conventional war between the various US media organizations and Trump, is likely about to go nuclear.

  • Scientists Find "Persuasive Evidence" Of Vote Hacking, Demand Clinton Recount In 3 States

    Between the so-called 'Hursti Hack', questions over Soros-linked voting machines, some peculiarities in Texas, and the media furore over Trump's democracy-threatening questioning of the election outcome; it is perhaps ironic that, after being soundly beaten across the vast majority of counties in America, NY Mag reports, a group of prominent computer scientists and election lawyers are urging the Clinton campaign to call for a recount in three swing states won by Donald Trump after allegedly finding "persuasive evidence" of vote hacking.

    The group, which includes voting-rights attorney John Bonifaz and J. Alex Halderman, the director of the University of Michigan Center for Computer Security and Society, believes they’ve found persuasive evidence that results in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania may have been manipulated or hacked.

    New York Magazine reports that sources confirmed that the activists held a conference call last Thursday with Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta and campaign general counsel Marc Elias to make their case…

    The academics presented findings showing that in Wisconsin, Clinton received 7 percent fewer votes in counties that relied on electronic-voting machines compared with counties that used optical scanners and paper ballots.

     

    Based on this statistical analysis, Clinton may have been denied as many as 30,000 votes; she lost Wisconsin by 27,000.

    Notably, however, it’s important to note the group has not found proof of hacking or manipulation, they are arguing to the campaign that the suspicious pattern merits an independent review – especially, as New York Magazine so gleefully points out, in light of the fact that the Obama White House has accused the Russian government of hacking the Democratic National Committee.

    As a reminder, via MishTalk.com, Geographically speaking, Trump won at least 80% of the Nation.

    The only states Hillary carried are Vermont, Massachusetts, and Connecticut.

     

    geographic-landslide

     

     

    Trump won every county in Oklahoma and West Virginia. Trump won all but one county in Wyoming, and Kansas. Trump won all but two counties in North Dakota, Kentucky, Tennessee, Utah, and Nebraska.

     

    Nearly the entire state of Minnesota, Illinois, New York, Oregon, Iowa, Missouri, Ohio, Michigan, etc., went for Trump. 

     

    Geographically speaking, except for big cities and a few isolated areas, the country cannot stand Hillary.

    So the big question is – could she win? Well the answer is complicated…

    According to current tallies, Trump has won 290 Electoral College votes to Clinton’s 232, with Michigan’s 16 votes not apportioned because the race there is still too close to call.

     

    It would take overturning the results in both Wisconsin (10 Electoral College votes) and Pennsylvania (20 votes), in addition to winning Michigan’s 16, for Clinton to win the Electoral College.

     

    There is also the complicating factor of “faithless electors,” or members of the Electoral College who do not vote according to the popular vote in their states. At least six electoral voters have said they would not vote for Trump, despite the fact that he won their states.

    The Clinton camp is running out of time to challenge the election. NYMag notes that according to one of the activists, the deadline in Wisconsin to file for a recount is Friday; in Pennsylvania, it’s Monday; and Michigan is next Wednesday.

    Of course, should this happen, we can only imagine what carnage it would cause to global financial markets as the Trump Bump hope fades into the Clinton crash.

    Finally, it appears that far from a frivolous flight of fancy, Huma Abedin's sister, Heba Abedin, has been encouraging her Facebook followers to call the Justice Department to have vote in key states audited.

    None other than Nate Silver is now chiming in on these ‘scientists’ claims…

    Which is also wonderfully ironic, though he does point out one glaring hole in their ‘hacking theory’…

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Today’s News 22nd November 2016

  • When It Comes To Fake News, The U.S. Government Is The Biggest Culprit

    Submitted by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    We Americans are the ultimate innocents. We are forever desperate to believe that this time the government is telling us the truth.”—Former New York Times reporter Sydney Schanberg

    Let’s talk about fake news stories, shall we?

    There’s the garden variety fake news that is not really “news” so much as it is titillating, tabloid-worthy material peddled by anyone with a Twitter account, a Facebook page and an active imagination. These stories run the gamut from the ridiculous and the obviously click-baity to the satirical and politically manipulative.

    Anyone with an ounce of sense and access to the Internet should be able to ferret out the truth and lies in these stories with some basic research. That these stories flourish is largely owing to the general gullibility, laziness and media illiteracy of the general public, which through its learned compliance rarely questions, challenges or confronts.

    Then there’s the more devious kind of news stories circulated by one of the biggest propagators of fake news: the U.S. government.

    In the midst of the media’s sudden headline-blaring apoplexy over fake news, you won’t hear much about the government’s role in producing, planting and peddling propaganda-driven fake news—often with the help of the corporate news media—because that’s not how the game works.

    Why?

    Because the powers-that-be don’t want us skeptical of the government’s message or its corporate accomplices in the mainstream media. They don’t want us to be more discerning when it comes to what information we digest online. They just want us to be leery of independent or alternative news sources while trusting them—and their corporate colleagues—to vet the news for us.

    Indeed, the New York Times has suggested that Facebook and Google appoint themselves the arbiters of truth on the internet in order to screen out what is blatantly false, spam or click-baity.

    Not only would this establish a dangerous precedent for all-out censorship by corporate entities known for colluding with the government but it’s also a slick sleight-of-hand maneuver that diverts attention from what we should really be talking about: the fact that the government has grown dangerously out-of-control, all the while the so-called mainstream news media, which is supposed to act as a bulwark against government propaganda, has instead become the mouthpiece of the world’s largest corporation—the U.S. government.

    As veteran journalist Carl Bernstein, who along with Bob Woodward blew the lid off the Watergate scandal, reported in his expansive 1977 Rolling Stone piece, “The CIA and the Media”:

    “More than 400 American journalists … in the past twenty?five years have secretly carried out assignments for the Central Intelligence AgencyThere was cooperation, accommodation and overlap. Journalists provided a full range of clandestine services… Reporters shared their notebooks with the CIA. Editors shared their staffs. Some of the journalists were Pulitzer Prize winners, distinguished reporters… In many instances, CIA documents show, journalists were engaged to perform tasks for the CIA with the consent of the managements of America’s leading news organizations.”

    Bernstein is referring to Operation Mockingbird, a CIA campaign started in the 1950s to plant intelligence reports among reporters at more than 25 major newspapers and wire agencies, who would then regurgitate them for a public oblivious to the fact that they were being fed government propaganda.

    In some instances, as Bernstein shows, members of the media also served as extensions of the surveillance state, with reporters actually carrying out assignments for the CIA.

    Executives with CBS, the New York Times and Time magazine also worked closely with the CIA to vet the news. Bernstein writes: “Other organizations which cooperated with the CIA include the American Broadcasting Company, the National Broadcasting Company, the Associated Press, United Press International, Reuters, Hearst Newspapers, Scripps?Howard, Newsweek magazine, the Mutual Broadcasting System, the Miami Herald and the old Saturday Evening Post and New York Herald?Tribune.”

    For example, in August 1964, the nation’s leading newspapers—including the Washington Post and New York Times—echoed Lyndon Johnson’s claim that North Vietnam had launched a second round of attacks against American destroyers in the Gulf of Tonkin. No such attacks had taken place, and yet the damage was done. As Jeff Cohen and Norman Solomon report for Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting, “By reporting official claims as absolute truths, American journalism opened the floodgates for the bloody Vietnam War.”

    Fast forward to the early post-9/11 years when, despite a lack of any credible data supporting the existence of weapons of mass destruction, the mainstream media jumped on the bandwagon to sound the war drums against Iraq. As Los Angeles Times columnist Robin Abcarian put it, “our government … used its immense bully pulpit to steamroll the watchdogs… Many were gulled by access to administration insiders, or susceptible to the drumbeat of the government’s coordinated rhetoric.”

    John Walcott, Washington bureau chief for Knight-Ridder, one of the only news agencies to challenge the government’s rationale for invading Iraq, suggests that the reason for the media’s easy acceptance is that “too many journalists, including some very famous ones, have surrendered their independence in order to become part of the ruling class. Journalism is, as the motto goes, speaking truth to power, not wielding it.”

    If it was happening then, you can bet it’s still happening today, only it’s been reclassified, renamed and hidden behind layers of government secrecy, obfuscation and spin.

    In its article, “How the American government is trying to control what you think,” the Washington Post points out “Government agencies historically have made a habit of crossing the blurry line between informing the public and propagandizing.”

    Thus, whether you’re talking about the Cold War, the Vietnam War, the Gulf War, the government’s invasion of Iraq based upon absolute fabrications, or the government’s so-called war on terror, privacy and whistleblowers, it’s being driven by propaganda churned out by one corporate machine (the corporate-controlled government) and fed to the American people by way of yet another corporate machine (the corporate-controlled media).

    “For the first time in human history, there is a concerted strategy to manipulate global perception. And the mass media are operating as its compliant assistants, failing both to resist it and to expose it,” writes investigative journalist Nick Davies. “The sheer ease with which this machinery has been able to do its work reflects a creeping structural weakness which now afflicts the production of our news.”

    But wait.

    If the mass media—aka the mainstream media or the corporate or establishment media—is merely repeating what is being fed to it, who are the masterminds within the government responsible for this propaganda?

    Davies explains:

    The Pentagon has now designated “information operations” as its fifth “core competency” alongside land, sea, air and special forces. Since October 2006, every brigade, division and corps in the US military has had its own "psyop" element producing output for local media. This military activity is linked to the State Department's campaign of "public diplomacy" which includes funding radio stations and news websites.

    This use of propaganda disguised as journalism is what journalist John Pilger refers to as “invisible government… the true ruling power of our country.”

    As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, we no longer have a Fourth Estate.

    Not when the “news” we receive is routinely manufactured, manipulated and made-to-order by government agents. Not when six corporations control 90% of the media in America. And not when, as Davies laments, “news organizations which might otherwise have exposed the truth were themselves part of the abuse, and so they kept silent, indulging in a comic parody of misreporting, hiding the emerging scandal from their readers like a Victorian nanny covering the children’s eyes from an accident in the street.”

    So let’s have no more of this handwringing, heart-wrenching, morally offended talk about fake news by media outlets that have become propagandists for the false reality created by the American government.

    After all, as Glenn Greenwald points out, “The term propaganda rings melodramatic and exaggerated, but a press that—whether from fear, careerism, or conviction—uncritically recites false government claims and reports them as fact, or treats elected officials with a reverence reserved for royalty, cannot be accurately described as engaged in any other function.”

    So where does that leave us?

    What should—or can—we do?

    I’ll close with John Pilger’s words of warning and advice:

    Real information, subversive information, remains the most potent power of all — and I believe that we must not fall into the trap of believing that the media speaks for the public. That wasn’t true in Stalinist Czechoslovakia and it isn’t true of the United States. In all the years I’ve been a journalist, I’ve never known public consciousness to have risen as fast as it’s rising today…yet this growing critical public awareness is all the more remarkable when you consider the sheer scale of indoctrination, the mythology of a superior way of life, and the current manufactured state of fear.

    [The public] need[s] truth, and journalists ought to be agents of truth, not the courtiers of power. I believe a fifth estate is possible, the product of a people’s movement, that monitors, deconstructs, and counters the corporate media. In every university, in every media college, in every news room, teachers of journalism, journalists themselves need to ask themselves about the part they now play in the bloodshed in the name of a bogus objectivity. Such a movement within the media could herald a perestroika of a kind that we have never known. This is all possible. Silences can be broken… In the United States wonderfully free rebellious spirits populate the web… The best reporting … appears on the web … and citizen reporters.

    The challenge for the rest of us is to lift this subjugated knowledge from out of the underground and take it to ordinary people. We need to make haste. Liberal Democracy is moving toward a form of corporate dictatorship. This is an historic shift, and the media must not be allowed to be its façade, but itself made into a popular, burning issue, and subjected to direct action. That great whistleblower Tom Paine warned that if the majority of the people were denied the truth and the ideas of truth, it was time to storm what he called the Bastille of words. That time is now.

  • Equity Market Melt-Up Continues: Dow Futures Top 19,000, S&P Breaks 2,200

    In the words of the great philosopher Buzz Lightyear, “to infinity and beyond.” Oil’s incessant liftathon – on hopes that a production freeze at record highs will seriously impact a record seasonal glut – appears to have sparked more panic-buying in stocks overnight as no news whatsoever has the machines incessantly bidding futures, pushing Dow futures over 19,000 and S&P futures over 2,200. Bonds are flat, USDJPY is flat, and offshore yuan is modestly weaker once again.

     

    After the squeeze-fest from the Trump win, oil is now in charge tick for tick of stocks…

     

    Just another manic-monday-melt-up…

     

    Leaves stocks once again pushing to new record highs post-Trump lows…

  • Minimum Wage Protesters Call For "Day Of Disruption" In 340 US Cities

    In what may be an early crisis test for the president-elect, on November 29, the nationwide campaign to increase the federal minimum wage in the United States has calling for a “Day of Disruption”, namely strikes and civil disobedience, on November 29 in the latest push to raise the minimum wage in the US to $15.

    The Fight for 15 group is preparing to protest in 340 cities across the United States, and is calling for airport and fast-food workers to strike.

    Group representatives have stated that they expect subcontracted service staff at roughly 20 airports to participate. It is anticipated to be the largest day of protest in the organization’s four year history, coinciding with the anniversary of the launch of the movement.

    “Tuesday, November 29, the #FightFor15 is staging a national day of disruption. We won’t back down,” the Fight for 15 Twitter account posted on Monday morning.

    On its website, the campaign writes the following statement: “For too long, McDonald’s and low-wage employers have made billions of
    dollars in profit and pushed off costs onto taxpayers, while leaving
    people like us – the people who do the real work – to struggle to
    survive. That’s why we strike.”

    Fight for 15 began in New York City, as fast-food workers went on strike demanding $15-an-hour pay, as well as union rights. The movement was successful, and in April of this year NY Governor Andrew Cuomo signed a law to increase wages to a $15 minimum by the end of 2018 in New York City, and by 2021 in other counties, including Nassau, Suffolk and Westchester.

    For the rest of the state, the minimum wage will be raised to $12.50 by the end of 2020.

    The movement has since spread to over 300 cities on six different continents, and has seen additional successes, winning $15 an hour in the state of California, and in large cities such as Seattle. Other cities, including Portland and Chicago, have seen significant minimum-wage increases.

    While previously the group’s demands have been ignored at the Federal level, in a potential complication this July, then-Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump broke from his party’s platform, promising to increase the federal minimum wage, which may boost the leverage of the protesting organization.

    However, Trump acknowledged that states with more expensive urban regions need to have a higher minimum wage than lower-cost rural areas.

    Minimum-wage regulations, Trump noted, are most feasible when they are based on the living costs in each particular area, rendering the federal wage level regulations largely irrelevant to the economic reality in different regions of the US.

    With a $10/hour federal minimum wage, individual states, he claims, could go above that threshold. “I would leave it and raise it somewhat. You need to help people and I know it’s not very Republican to say but you need to help people,” Trump said in his July interview.

  • Why America Called 'Bullshit' On The Cult Of Clinton

    Submitted by Brendan O'Neill via Reason.com,

    The one good thing about Trump’s win? It shows a willingness among Americans to blaspheme against saints and reject the religion of hollow progressiveness.

    If you want to see politics based on emotionalism over reason and a borderline-religious devotion to an iconic figure, forget the Trump Army; look instead to the Cult of Clinton.

    Ever since Donald Trump won the presidential election, all eyes, and wringing hands, have been on the white blob who voted for him. These "loud, illiterate and credulous people," as a sap at Salon brands them, think on an "emotional level." Bill Moyers warned that ours is a "dark age of unreason," in which "low information" folks are lining up behind "The Trump Emotion Machine." Andrew Sullivan said Trump supporters relate to him as a "cult leader fused with the idea of the nation."

    What's funny about this is not simply that it's the biggest chattering-class hissy fit of the 21st century so far — and chattering-class hissy fits are always funny. It's that whatever you think of Trump (I'm not a fan) or his supporters (I think they're mostly normal, good people), the fact is they've got nothing on the Clinton cult when it comes to creepy, pious worship of a politician.

    By the Cult of Hillary Clinton, I don't mean the nearly 62 million Americans who voted for her. I have not one doubt that they are as mixed and normal a bag of people as the Trumpites are. No, I mean the Hillary machine—the celebs and activists and hacks who were so devoted to getting her elected and who have spent the past week sobbing and moaning over her loss. These people exhibit cult-like behavior far more than any Trump cheerer I've come across.

    Trump supporters view their man as a leader "fused with the idea of the nation"? Perhaps some do, but at least they don't see him as "light itself." That's how Clinton was described in the subhead of a piece for Lena Dunham's Lenny Letter. "Maybe [Clinton] is more than a president," gushed writer Virginia Heffernan. "Maybe she is an idea, a world-historical heroine, light itself," Nothing this nutty has been said by any of Trump's media fanboys.

    "Hillary is Athena," Heffernan continued, adding that "Hillary did everything right in this campaign… She cannot be faulted, criticized, or analyzed for even one more second."

    That's a key cry of the Cult of Hillary (as it is among followers of L. Ron Hubbard or devotees of Christ): our gal is beyond criticism, beyond the sober and technical analysis of mere humans. Michael Moore, in his movie Trumpland, looked out at his audience and, with voice breaking, said: "Maybe Hillary could be our Pope Francis."

    Or consider Kate McKinnon's post-election opening bit on SNL, in which she played Clinton as a pantsuited angel at a piano singing Leonard Cohen's "Hallelujah," her voice almost cracking as she sang: "I told the truth, I didn't come to fool ya." Just imagine if some right-leaning Christian celeb (are there any?) had dolled up as Trump-as-godhead and sang praises to him. It would have been the source of East Coast mirth for years to come. But SNL's Hallelujah for Hillary was seen as perfectly normal.

    As with all saints and prophets, all human manifestations of light itself, the problem is never with them, but with us. We mortals are not worthy of Hillary. "Hillary didn't fail us, we failed her," asserted a writer for the Guardian. The press, and by extension the rest of us, "crucified her," claimed someone at Bustle. We always do that to messiahs, assholes that we are.

    And of course the light of Hillary had to be guarded against blasphemy. Truly did the Cult of Hillary seek to put her beyond "analysis for even one more second." All that stuff about her emails and Libya was pseudo-scandal, inventions of her aspiring slayers, they told us again and again and again.

    As Thomas Frank says, the insistence that Hillary was scandal-free had a blasphemy-deflecting feel to it. The message was that "Hillary was virtually without flaws… a peerless leader clad in saintly white… a caring benefactor of women and children." Mother Teresa in a pantsuit, basically. As a result, wrote Frank, "the act of opening a newspaper started to feel like tuning in to a Cold War propaganda station."

    Then there was the reaction to Clinton's loss. It just wasn't normal chattering-class behavior. Of course we expect weeping, wailing videos from the likes of Miley Cyrus and Perez Hilton about how Clinton had been robbed of her moment of glory; that's what celebs do these days. But in the media, too, there was hysteria.

    "'I feel hated,' I tell my husband, sobbing in front of the TV in my yoga pants and Hillary sweatshirt, holding my bare neck," said a feminist in the Guardian. Crying was a major theme. A British feminist recalled all the "Clinton-related crying" she had done: "I've cried at the pantsuit flashmob, your Saturday Night Live appearance, and sometimes just while watching the debates." (Wonder if she cried over the women killed as a result of Hillary's machinations in Libya? Probably not. In the mind of the Hillary cultists, that didn't happen—it is utterly spurious, a blasphemy.)

    Then there was Lena Dunham, who came out in hives—actual hives—when she heard Clinton had lost. Her party dress "felt tight and itchy." She "ached in the places that make me a woman." I understand being upset and angry at your candidate's loss, but this is something different; this is what happens, not when a politician does badly, but when your savior, your Athena, "light itself," is extinguished. The grief is understandable only in the context of the apocalyptic faith they had put in Hillary. Not since Princess Diana kicked the bucket can I remember such a strange, misplaced belief in one woman, and such a weird, post-modern response to someone's demise (and Clinton isn't even dead! She just lost!).

    It's all incredibly revealing. What it points to is a mainstream, Democratic left that is so bereft of ideas and so disconnected from everyday people that it ends up pursuing an utterly substance-free politics of emotion and feeling and doesn't even realize it's doing it. They are good, everyone else is bad; they are light itself, everyone else is darkness; and so no self-awareness can exist and no self-criticism can be entertained. Not for even one second, in Heffernan's words. The Cult of Hillary Clinton is the clearest manifestation yet of the 21st-century problem of life in the political echo chamber.

    Mercifully, some mea culpas are now emerging. Some, though not enough, realize that Hillaryites behaved rashly and with unreason. In a brilliant piece titled "The unbearable smugness of the liberal media," Will Rahn recounts how the media allowed itself to become the earthly instrument of Clinton's cause, obsessed with finding out how to make Middle Americans "stop worshiping their false god and accept our gospel."

    Indeed. And the failure to make the gospel of Hillary into the actual book of America points to the one good thing about Trump's victory: a willingness among ordinary people to blaspheme against saints, to reject phony saviors, and to sniff at the new secular religion of hollow progressiveness. The liberal political and media establishment offered the little people a supposedly flawless, Francis-like figure of uncommon goodness, and the little people called bullshit on it. That is epic and beautiful, even if nothing else in recent weeks has been.

  • After Trump Win, Ad Agencies Admit They're Clueless On How To Market To Midwest Consumers

    Donald Trump’s election taught politicians several valuable lessons, including, but certainly not limited to, the following:

    1. More spending doesn’t necessarily equate to victory
    2. You can speak your mind without alienating voters…actually, a lot of voters kind of like/respect it
    3. The American electorate is smart enough to see through blatant pandering based on race, gender, etc.
    4. Rural populations in “flyover states” are absolutely fed up with the ruling elites of the establishment

    But politicians aren’t the only ones learning valuable lessons from Trump’s stunning victory as advertising agencies have also been forced to admit that they have no idea how to market to the Midwest.  As the CEO of McCann Worldgroup pointed out the Wall Street Journal, Trump’s victory highlighted the error of gearing marketing programs exclusively “toward metro elite imagery” saying that future efforts need to incorporate a bit more “Des Moines and Scranton” and a little less NYC and Los Angeles.

    In the wake of Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president with a wave of support from middle American voters, advertisers are reflecting on whether they are out of touch with the same people—rural, economically frustrated, elite-distrusting, anti-globalization voters—who propelled the businessman into the White House. Mr. Trump’s rise has them rethinking the way they collect data about consumers, recruit staff and pitch products.

     

    “Every so often you have to reset what is the aspirational goal the public has with regard to the products we sell,” said Harris Diamond, McCann’s CEO. “So many marketing programs are oriented toward metro elite imagery.” Marketing needs to reflect less of New York and Los Angeles culture, he said, and more of “Des Moines and Scranton.”

    Midwest

     

    Like the large hedge funds and investment banks of wall street, most the people employed by the large, successful ad agencies happen to reside in NYC and Los Angeles.  And, while those offices are well staffed to target consumers in the large metropolitan cities of the U.S. , they are uniquely unqualified to speak to the hearts and minds of people living in the “flyover” states that they loathe to visit.  As one advertising CEO points out, a diversity hire “can be a farm girl from Indiana as much as a Cuban immigrant who lives in Pensacola.”

    Some marketers, concerned that data isn’t telling them everything they need to know, are considering increasing their use of personal interviews in research. Meanwhile, some ad agencies are looking to hire more people from rural areas as they rethink the popular use of aspirational messaging showcasing a ritzy life on the two metropolitan coasts. One company is also weighing whether to open more local offices around the world, where the people who create ads are closer to the people who see them.

     

    “This election is a seminal moment for marketers to step back and understand what is in people’s heads and what actually drives consumer choice,” said Joe Tripodi, chief marketing officer of the Subway sandwich chain.

     

    Even as many ad agencies try to improve their gender and racial diversity, industry executives say they also need to ensure their U.S. employees come from varied socioeconomic and geographic backgrounds.

     

    A diversity hire “can be a farm girl from Indiana as much as a Cuban immigrant who lives in Pensacola,” said John Boiler, chief executive of the agency 72andSunny, whose clients include General Mills Inc. and Coors Light. The agency plans to expand its university recruitment programs to include rural areas.

    Like the pollsters who completely missed Trump’s victory, advertising agencies admit that their customers will likely reduce spending over the next several months as everyone “re-calibrates” their models to reflect the fact that not everyone lives in NYC, San Francisco and Los Angeles.

    Advertising executives also said the surprising outcome to the election would likely hamper advertising spending next year, as marketers try to figure out what implications the new administration’s decisions will have on businesses.

     

    WPP’s GroupM, the largest ad buying firm in the world, had been anticipating U.S. ad spending would grow 3% to $183.9 billion next year. Kelly Clark, global CEO of GroupM, now said he anticipates ad spending growth in the U.S. will likely decline a few percentage points over the next six months. “We do believe that investment decisions will be delayed,” said Mr. Clark.

     

    If agencies internalize the societal changes the election reflected, the content or tone of advertising could change, some ad executives predicted.

     

    “The election will have spooked the liberal elite away from high concept, ‘make the world a better place’” advertising to “a more down-to-earth ‘tell me what you will do for me’ approach” said Robert Senior, worldwide chief executive of Saatchi & Saatchi, a creative firm owned by Publicis Groupe.

    Isn’t it just glorious to see the Ivy League-educated, coastal elites admit that they know absolutely nothing about roughly 50% of the people residing in their own country?

  • Japanese Troops Deploy To South Sudan Risking First Overseas Conflict Since World War II"

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    The re-miliarization of Japan has been on my radar and caused me much concern in recent years. I’ve covered the topic on several occasions, with the most recent example published over the summer in the post, Japanese Government Shifts Further Toward Authoritarianism and Militarism. Here are the first few paragraphs:

    One of the most discomforting aspects of Neil Howe and William Strauss’ seminal work on generational cycles, The Fourth Turning (1997), is the fact that as far as American history is concerned, they all climax and end with massive wars.

     

    To be more specific, the first “fourth turning” in American history culminated with the Revolutionary War (1775-1783), the second culminated with the Civil War (1861-1865), while the third ended with the bloodiest war in world history, World War II (1939-1945). The number of years between the end of the Revolutionary War and the start of the Civil War was 78 years, and the number of years between the end of the Civil War and the start of World War II was 74 years (76 years if you use America’s entry into the war as your starting date). Therefore, if Howe & Strauss’ theory holds any water, and I think it does, we’re due for a major conflict somewhere around 75 years from the end of World War II. That brings us to 2020.

     

    The more I look around, the more signs appear everywhere that the world is headed into another major conflict. From an unnecessary resurgence of a Cold War with Russia, to increased tensions in the South China Sea and complete chaos and destruction in the Middle East, the world is a gigantic tinderbox. All it will take to transform these already existing conflict zones into a major conflagration is another severe global economic downturn, something I fully expect to happen within the next 1-2 years. Frighteningly, this puts on a perfect collision course with the 2020 area.

    Although I felt World War 3 was a virtual lock under Hillary Clinton, the election of Trump does not negate historical cycles or current geopolitical trends, and the world continues to move in a very dangerous direction.

    While the below snippet from a Reuters article published today may not seem like a big deal, it’s just a small part of a much larger trend.

    Via Reuters:

    A contingent of Japanese troops landed in South Sudan on Monday, an official said – a mission that critics say could see them embroiled in their country’s first overseas fighting since World War Two.

     

    The soldiers will join U.N. peacekeepers and help build infrastructure in the landlocked and impoverished country torn apart by years of civil war.

     

    But, under new powers granted by their government last year, they will be allowed to respond to urgent calls for help from U.N. staff and aid workers. There are also plans to let them guard U.N. bases, which have been attacked during the fighting.

     

    The deployment of 350 soldiers is in line with Japanese security legislation to expand the military’s role overseas. Critics in Japan have said the move risks pulling the troops into conflict for the first time in more than seven decades.

    All it would take is a sharp global economic downturn to push world “leaders” towards overseas conflict in order to distract from problems at home. The risk is very real.

     

    *  *  *

    For prior articles on the trend toward militarization in Japan, see:

    Unusually Massive Protests Erupt in Japan Against Forthcoming “War Legislation”

    Video of the Day – Brawl Breaks Out in Japanese Parliament Over “War Bill”

    How Japan’s “Stealth Constitution” Destroys Civil Rights and Sets the Stage for Dictatorship

  • Generational Wealth Transfers Create 1,700 New Millionaires A Day As Middle Class Continues To Suffer

    Trump won the 2016 presidential election, in large part, due to the support of the working class population in the Midwest that has suffered for decades as manufacturing wages have stagnated and jobs have been transplanted to lower cost regions like Mexico and China.  On election night, Trump vowed to change the fate of the American middle class by pledging that “the forgotten men and women of our country will be forgotten no longer.”

    That said, with a significant amount of America’s wealth held by a tiny fraction of households and a widening income gap, it’s unclear what, if anything, Trump can do to reverse the collapse of America’s once thriving middle class.  As the St. Louis Fed points out, the median family in the U.S. today has accumulated roughly 30% less wealth than their counterparts in 1989 which has been a consistent trend now for decades.

    The median family today is significantly poorer at any given age than their counterparts would have been 25 years earlier, according to the St. Louis Fed. For example, people born in 1970 have had about 40 percent less wealth at any given age, compared with people born in 1940. The median middle-aged family in 2013 had 31 percent less wealth than its counterpart in 1989, while the median young family had 28 percent less wealth than its 1989 counterpart. Meanwhile, the median wealth gap between young and old families has widened.

    As Bloomberg points out, just 8mm households, or roughly 6% of the 125mm total households in the U.S., control a substantial portion of the country’s overall financial wealth.

    Middle Class

     

    And, with middle class incomes stagnating, the wealth gap is only expected to grow wider over time.

    Middle Class

     

    Meanwhile, more than 50% of the people with $25mm or more in financial wealth cite “inheritance” as the source of their “success.”

    Others were just born lucky, as in: They inherited their cash. More than half of U.S. investors with over $25 million said inheritance was a factor in their wealth, according to a new survey by Spectrem Group, a consulting firm that specializes in polling the rich. Among these people, a whopping 73 percent of those aged 50 or younger said inheritance was a factor.

     

    George Walper, Spectrem’s president, said there’s been an uptick in the last few years in the number of respondents who cite inheritance as a factor in their wealth. To be fair, the very wealthy people surveyed by Spectrem also cite hard work, education, and smart investing as playing a role in their riches.

     

    But it’s become harder to build a fortune on hard work alone. Americans in their late seventies, eighties, and nineties began their careers in the midst of the U.S.’s postwar boom. More recent generations haven’t had the same economic tailwinds.

    Middle Class

     

    All of which leads to the inevitable conclusion that the growing pool of “old money” in the U.S. and stagnating incomes has resulted in a fairly grim outlook for millennials.

    Middle Class

     

    With the “old money” families taking an increasing portion of the overall American wealth pie while the overwhelming majority of American’s live month-to-month with no potential to save, it is no wonder that the American electorate has grown more divided over time.  Certainly, the democratic party has used the income divide over the years to rally their base of support.  But, with an economy that is dependent on consumers levering and spending every single dollar they make and a central bank that has removed every possible incentive to save, we suspect the income gap won’t narrow anytime in the near future.

  • Canadian Bank Starts Charging Negative 0.75% Rate On Most Foreign Cash Balances

    Despite speculation over the past year that Canada may join Japan and Europe in the NIRP club and launch negative interest rates, so far the BOC has stood its ground. However, starting on December 22, for the broker dealer clients of one of Canada’s most reputable financial institutions, BMO Nesbitt Burns, it will be as if the Canadian bank has cut its deposit rate on most currencies, to match the deposit rate of Switzerland.

    In an internal letter sent today from management, the bank explains that its current policy with respect to cash balances of foreign currencies held in client accounts – excluding U.S. dollars – has been that it “does not pay or charge clients interest on these balances.” As a result, the bank writes, clients have traditionally tended not to hold non-U.S. dollar foreign currencies in a BMO Nesbitt Burns account for any extended period. However, the notice continues, “given the current global interest rate environment, which has extended much longer than anticipated, we have seen an increase in foreign currency cash reserves across accounts; indicating clients are, in fact, moving these funds into their BMO Nesbitt Burns account in order to avoid negative interest charges on cash holdings in other accounts they maintain.” 

    Welcome to the age of connected monetary vessels, where globally fungible money allows savers to bypass their own domestic “financial repression” and negative interest rates, by shifting their funds to offshore bank accounts. Or at least it did for clients using BMO Nesbitt Burns as a custodian of offshore money. Because as the bank adds, it has become necessary for the bank to update its current policy and selectively implement negative rates to avoid precisely this global interconnection. To wit:

    Effective December 22, 2016, we will begin charging clients a market-rate negative interest charge of 75 basis points on cash balances of all foreign currencies held in their account(s), excluding U.S. dollars. Interest is calculated on the average daily balance during the interest period. The first negative interest charge will cover the period of December 22, 2016 to January 21, 2017, and will be charged to all applicable client accounts on January 23, 2017.

    How long will BMO continue this unprecedented financial repression of its foreign clients? Simple: as long as NIRP in other nations forces funds to be parked in banks like the Bank of Montreal.

    This rate will be regularly reviewed to ensure it remains competitive and will continue until to be charged until such time as foreign interest rate policies negate the need to apply this charge to client accounts. Please note that negative monthly interest charges below $5.00 will not be charged to client accounts.

    What happens then? Well, if BMO depositors (of whom we wonder just what percentage are Chinese) take their money to another Canadian bank, that bank will promptly follow suit and implement a similar “negative rate” provision for foreign clients, until eventually every single bank, and not just in Canada, has a bifurcated deposit rate policy: one for account held in Canadian and US Dollars, and another for all other currencies, which will demand an annual fee of 0.75% for the privilege of holding their funds.

    What is BMO Nesbitt Burns’ advice to advisors with clients that have any foreign, non-U.S. dollar foreign currencies on deposit? They are encouraged to contact these clients and advise them that they may wish to consider purchasing an alternative short-term investment denominated in the foreign currency, or another available product, as otherwise there is no evading the -0.75% fee.

  • Venezuela's State-Owned Oil Company Misses Bond Coupon Payments Due To "Glitch", Bonds Tumble

    Just a month after dodging a default bullet thanks to a last-minute bond swap, Venezuela’s state-owned oil company PDVSA missed coupon payments due on its bonds, according to JPMorgan. However, PDVSA president Del Pino raged on Twitter that “the information about a PDVSA default spread by the enemies of the fatherland is totally false,” but the bonds saw prices tumble despite his statement.

    PDVSA in October swapped $2.8 billion in bonds due in 2017 for new bonds maturing in 2020... but that bounce is now dead…


    As Bloomberg reports, PDVSA has activated a 30-day grace period after not meeting the full coupon payments on its 2021, 2024 and 2035 bonds that were due last week. About $400 million was due on those bonds, while PDVSA did pay $135 million due on its 2026 debt last week, JPMorgan’s Javier Zorrilla writes, citing information from the paying agent on the bonds.

    “We still believe PDVSA will make these payments during the grace period,” Zorrilla wrote in the report.

     

    “However, this highlights the cash difficulties and mismanagement of PDVSA with regards to its liabilities.”

    But, as Reuters reports, PDVSA, in a statement, said it had paid “punctually” its obligations due this month for 2021, 2024 and 2026 papers, and was also “in the process of executing” interest payments for the 2035 bond.

    “In this way, PDVSA honors its commitment … ratifying the financial solidity of Venezuelans’ main industry,” it said.

    Prior to PDVSA’s response, Reuters reports that Torino Capital had said the reported delay appeared to be “a technical mistake” rather than an indication of default.

    It noted that payments were being made “through accounts not conventionally used for these purposes” and that some PDVSA management changes had occurred, both of which could have contributed to a delay.

     

    “Our tentative conclusion is thus that the delay in payments likely reflects administrative and technical issues of the type that the 30-day grace period is designed to handle,” wrote its chief economist Francisco Rodriguez in a note to clients.

     

    “We do not believe it reflects a change in authorities’ willingness to service its international obligations.”

    Venezuela bonds trade at distressed levels as a result of investor concern that a steep recession and spiraling inflation will leave it without resources to meet heavy commitments.

    The country’s sovereign bonds on average pay 26 percentage points more than comparable U.S. Treasury Notes, according to JPMorgan’s Global Diversified Emerging Markets Bond Index.

    But there is always a dip-buyer ready to scoop up collapsing bonds…

    “I hope it gets cheaper so I can buy more,” said Diego Ferro, co-chief investment officer of Greylock Capital Management LLC in New York. “It’s a non-event most likely.”

    Well the 2037s jut got a lot cheaper Mr. Ferro…

     

    And all this on the day when the Bolivar crashed through 2000/$ on the black market for the first time… 

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Today’s News 21st November 2016

  • The Mainstream Media Has Only Itself To Blame For The "Fake News" Epidemic

    Submitted by Stephen Miller via HeatSt.com,

    The mainstream media continues to freak out over the spread of “fake news” on Facebook and other social media platforms such as Twitter and reddit. Hillary Clinton’s late campaign thinks this is a problem.

    The Democrat party seems to think people with Facebook accounts are to blame for Hillary’s decision to ignore crucial swing states in the final weeks of the campaign, that likely cost her the election.

    But the media hasn’t bothered to ask why such sites gained traction. Our media has cultivated false news for years. Understandably, people stopped caring about the “journalistic ethics” the media claim to possess.

    The CBS morning show, hosted by Charlie Rose, recently ran a segment on the rise of fake news, based on a story posted on BuzzFeed. The website claimed that Facebook users shared more “fake” news stories than “real” news stories by the end of the election.

    Was the story true? Timothy Carney from the Washington Examiner found holes in Buzzfeed’s model which thus complicated the narrative BuzzFeed was trying to present. On examination, Buzzfeed had ignored real statistics to present their own version of a narrative, not the facts.

    On the same CBS show, Charlie Rose interviewed former “fake news” pundit and left-wing icon Jon Stewart about the election. During his Daily Show years, Stewart styled himself as both a serious pundit and a comedian, allowing him to walk the line between fake news and satire.

    The show’s set, and Stewart’s demeanor, mirrored that of a network news program. His cast did on-location interviews, which were often heavily edited to present their own liberal point of view. But long after Stewart’s show ended, he is still being propped up as an important voice in journalism.

     

     

    Shortly before Stewart filmed his final Daily Show segment in August 2015, the Washington Post published a piece lamenting that “many millennials are about to lose their most-trusted news source.”

    CNN’s Brian Stelter has made exposing fake news sites a bit of a pet project. He should start with his own network, along with its mainstream competitors. Stelter himself recently discussed the election with disgraced former CBS New anchor Dan Rather, who was forced to resign after presenting forged documents about George W. Bush’s service in the National Guard as legitimate news.

    CNN has run segments suggesting that asteroids cause climate change, and black holes can materialize in Earth’s atmosphere and swallow 747 passenger planes . A CNN panel led by left wing commentator Sally Kohn declared their “hearts are out there marching” with protestors in Ferguson as they all raised their hands to mimic the Black Lives Matter protest mantra — “Hands Up Don’t Shoot” — echoing an alleged gesture during a police shooting that was declared one of the year’s biggest lies (ironically) by the Washington Post.

    NBC Nightly News, hosted by Lester Holt, featured a report about “fake news” this past Tuesday, apparently with zero self awareness about how Holt came to host the show. He replaced the disgraced Brian Williams after it was revealed that Williams had fabricated a number of self-aggrandizing anecdotes about his broadcasting career.

    How were Williams’ fabrications discovered? Not by NBC’s asleep-at-the-wheel standards executives, and not by the New York Times, the Washington Post, CNN or even Fox News. They came to light after a soldier on Facebook called Williams out for exaggerating a story about covering the Iraq War. Williams continues to make millions of dollars working for NBC as a late night MSNBC host.

    NBC was also caught airing edited audio of a 911 phone call in a way that made Trayvon Martin shooter George Zimmerman come across as a racist, when the full context was far more mundane.

    Meanwhile, NBC Universal has invested $2 hundred million in BuzzFeed and Vox. There isn’t enough space to list all of the times Vox failed at delivering “real news.” I will simply let Deadspin explain: 46 Times Vox Totally Fucked Up A Story.”

    Rolling Stone continues to put out a magazine despite a verdict of malicious defamation of a UVa administrator related to its publication of, “A Rape on Campus,” a story about a brutal rape that, as it turns out, never happened.

    Another such case is Emma Sulkowicz, the Columbia University rape activist who carried a mattress on her back to protest University administrators for not expelling her alleged rapist. Except the rape never happened. Still, the New York Times ran a piece exulting Sulkowicz titled “The Art of the Political Protest.”

    When New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand invited Sulkowicz to be her guest at the State of the Union address, there were no questions about the validity or truth of her claims. The New York Times has repeatedly pushed the fake campus rape statistic that every one in four women are sexually assaulted on campus. This story was repeatedly cited by both Gillibrand and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

    Beginning to see the problem yet?

    When false narratives and comedians are championed, the public at large stops relying on publications and networks who attempt to pass themselves off as “real news” but who in fact either ignore or simply don’t care about information they put out because of an ideological bias.

  • Drugs Are Killing More Americans Than Road Crashes

    So much for the so-called ‘war on drugs’… The United States has been gripped by a heroin and opiate epidemic with user numbers recently hitting a 20 year high.

    In 2014, the number of U.S. heroin users passed the million mark with deaths from overdoses rising steeply. And as Statista’s Niall McCarthy writes, drugs are now killing substantially more Americans every year than car crashes.

    In 2004, 30,711 deaths were drug related compared to 42,836 in
    motor vehicle accidents. A decade later, drug-induced deaths reached
    49,714 while road crash deaths fell to 32,675.

    Infographic: Drugs Are Killing More Americans Than Road Crashes  | Statista
    You will find more statistics at Statista

    As well as the cheap suppy of heroin, legistlation aimed at eliminating prescription opioid abuse has actually added to the problem. It involved changing the texture of the pills to make them more difficult to crush and inject into the bloodstream. That move made people shift over to heroin in droves. New and deadlier drugs such as Fentanyl are also adding to the overdose epidemic. 50 times more potent than heroin, Fentanyl has created an overdose spike in several north-eastern states and has been named as the drug that killed pop singer Prince earlier this year.

  • The Coming Financial Backlash For Silicon Valley And Much, Much More

    Authored by Mark St.Cyr,

    Silicon Valley has a problem, a very big problem. And it’s not rooted in just the geographic location. Everything (and I do mean everything) that was once assumed “a given” or, “totally worth it” or, the more memorable “it’s different this time” rationales as it pertained to startups, social media, valuations, user metrics, IPOs, unicorns, etc., etc. is about to be piled onto the ever burgeoning trash-bin of history. Right atop 2016’s polling data. For if this election proved one thing – it was this:

    This is what happens when one assumes they’re breathing rarefied air – only to find they’ve been doing nothing more than inhaling their own exhaust fumes.

    Now if you think I’m going to speak about the election results? You’d be wrong. That’s for others to discuss. No, what I have been watching is far more fascinating.

    I can only imagine how many businesses must be viewing much of the latest uproar with absolute horror when trying to decide whether they will, or will not spend ad dollars on any social platform going forward.

    I would wager to guess there are many a marketing team, or ad-buy executive sitting back shell-shocked with ranging thoughts on the likes of: “Do I want to subject ourselves, our products, or customers to boycotting, protests, trolling, or worse, which has absolutely nothing to do with us?” I’d list more – but there’s not enough digital ink to type them all.

    So using the above “revelation” let’s put some context around it on what has transpired over the last week, and see how this all might shape up in the not so distant future. And how appropriate the word “revelation” fits when using one of the metaphorical four horsemen of the “markets” to do just that: e.g., Facebook™ (FB.)

    Suddenly FB finds itself on very unfamiliar ground. It would seem the “torches and pitchforks” this time are wanting to rally and surround 1 Hacker Way, rather than some other entity. It would appear “Zuck and crew” have a revolt on their hands. And in their panic (“their” meaning FB) are providing some very unsettling reasoning, commentary, and future plans on how to deal with it.

    Let’s try to square-a-few-circles, shall we? And just to remind you: this is about business, not the political.

    Remember when FB was accused of censoring conservative news or views? First: FB made statements that its news feed (or whatever they called it) was purely algorithm based. i.e., No human real-time meddling. Only to be found out: Oh yeah, sorry, we forgot about those humans who actually curate in real-time censoring via their personal political bias which seems to be of the exact opposite viewpoint.

    So, gee-whiz, by-golly, they’re going to stop doing that. And, from this day forth, you can be assured (because they had a meeting and it was said Mark really looked like “he cared”) it’s algorithms are us! The problem?

    Well, if they did just that (taking them at their word.) How did so many “fake news” stories, or “conservative viewpoints” get shared, posted, and read on FB that may have caused such an upset? After all, that’s what all the outcries are about, correct?

    Oh, oh! That would indicate FB has far more users of “that” political spectrum than to the liking of the other. And what is FB going to do about it?

    Basically, in a nutshell – add humans and any other filter it deems appropriate and censor them (“them” being only those of the sanctioned viewpoint) via their “approved” metrics.

    Can you see a very, very, (did I say very?) big problem here? Hint: Goodbye user metrics and revenue projections.

    To the horror of one side of the political spectrum. A call (more like setting torches ablaze) has gone out to FB as to change its policy. Which, for the record; is absolutely their right to do as a private company. That policy change?

    Basically, if you read between the lines it’s a reversal of their previous “Oh, by-golly, gee-whiz” promise to be fair and impartial, to reconstituting something which may even be more partial, and biased than the previous.

    So now if you’re one of this newly targeted content creators or sharer, or consumer pariah. It’s now been made crystal clear by both the current users – as well as the management: what you post; share; or possibly even pay for when it comes to “reach.” Will; can; or may be censored without your knowledge or consent.

    So with the above inferred: Are you going to remain there? Or, better yet: Pay? As in “eyeballs for ads.” And, with all of the above, are you going to blindly trust what you’re being told, or sold in any forthcoming ad-buy based upon just the latest ooopsy?

    (On an aside: When it comes to “fake?” It’s getting harder, and harder to control my laughing at all the irony.)

    What if just 10% of the users, and/or 10% of the ad-buyers (and that could be a best case scenario) decides – “Thanks, but no thanks!” And jettisons the platform altogether? Especially after witnessing both the outpouring hostility, along with managements stated reaction to this angry cohort. All with a response that, for all appearances, is totally one-sided. i.e., If you’re not of the approved political view – all is fair game to vanquish you, your business, your ad-buy, _______ (fill in the blank.)

    Do you think that will effect metrics in a negative way? Metrics that keep a stock valuation at “priced for perfection” levels? Do you think others haven’t noticed or thought through the same?

    Remember: Did you see this kind of visceral reaction from “Zuck and crew” when it was about the “other political view-point?” Far from it, and trust me – people are not only noticing – they’ve noticed.

    Want to see just how dedicated some of social media’s management is as to the ethics of “Making minds right” as opposed to making business decisions based on business ethics? To wit:

    Jack Dorsey Exposed: How Twitter’s CEO Restricted Advertising For Trump’s Campaign

    Ah yes, just what every fledgling social media (or canary-in-a-coalmine) songbird needs to do: Restrict access and ad-dollars from its platform during one of media’s (in general) most profitable times: i.e., During an election period.

    This move ranks up with one of the more stupid, ill-advised, and ill-informed business decisions I’ve seen by a CEO. Especially one that is supposedly in “media.” I mean, seriously. forget your political stance: Can you see the NYTimes™ turning down millions of ad $dollars during an election cycle from any candidate? Repeat – any?

    And Twitter™ in the sh___er that it is, unable to find a buyer, a business model that for all intents and purposes is on the bottom of the cage sprawled out, comatose, decides it’s above taking ad revenue from any side of the political spectrum? During an election? I ask only this: How’s all that propaganda on having a part-time CEO working out for any of you “investors?”

    If you think metrics for Twitter go up from here? I have some wonderful oceanfront property in Kentucky that can be yours. Just “Trust me.”

    Already you’re seeing some high-profile users and others banishing their accounts. You think they’ll be the only ones?

    And this (again, all in my opinion) is only the beginning of what I believe will turn into an “apocalypse” for social media as a whole. For if you thought with this meteoric rise in the “markets” off the latest “lock-limit-down” bounce portends great things for “the Valley?” I would also like you to ponder a few other revelations I’ve been warning about that seemed to have been missed (or blind eye turned) by most of the financial press.

    Remember when it was all about “2016 was the year of the rebirth of the IPO?” How’s that all been working out? You know, since the Twilio™ IPO to save the IPO world has happened. Here’s a “picture” as they like to say in “the Valley.” To wit:

    Twilio as of Friday's close.

    Twilio as of Friday’s close.

    Remind you of anyone? Hint: As I posted last month to “cat calls” everywhere, to wit:

    2016-10-20-tos_charts-2

    Left is Twitter, on right is Twilio, in about the same time period after IPO.

    And for those whom may not have noticed (but those who are “investors” I know you are painfully aware) or, are one of those only concerned with headlines touted across the main-stream business/financial press. Twilio was up something like 20% from the lows this week. Sounds great!

    Unless – you understand that up 20% only brings you “up” to still being down over 20% from when I posted that chart less than 30 days ago. Never-mind from those highs less than 60 days ago. (That’s Ouch territory)

    But at least it stopped where it ended on the day it IPO’d. right? So, things aren’t that bad, right? Right?

    But not too worry, 2017 is gonna fix all this. Why? Snapchat™ is going to file for its IPO.

    What? You haven’t heard? How can this be? How can one of the most anticipated IPO’s along with a market that’s at all-time-record-highs not be teaming with unbridled “unicorn” exuberance? It’s been many (if not all) a Silicon Valley’s unicorn raison d’être. i.e., To announce to the world its arrival of “it’s different this time” in-your-face metrics as to be worth $Billions, upon $Billions of market cap.

    Sorry, just not this time. This time it’s “confidential.”  Why would this be one might presume? Nobody knows but for the players themselves. Yet, with that said, I know what it screams to those looking from the outside: There wasn’t any confidence there were going to be takers. i.e., buyers. (Much like the fear of how markets react after it’s announced “X looked at the books and decided, Thanks, but no thanks!)

    Doesn’t that just signal “it’s different this time” in more ways than one? Hint: You bet it does.

    But you know what the real “secret” is?

    It screams caution for anyone just chomping-at-the-bit to get-in on another of these “social darlings” prancing out of the unicorn stables into the public arena. An arena which is beginning to look more like a “glue factory” with every passing day.

    Yes, 2017 sure will be one to watch. For if Twitter and Twilio are anything resembling clues?

    Your “chat” or “picture” might not be the only thing that vanishes into the ether, never to be seen again. But not too worry, after all: “It’s different this time.”

    Just ask FB.

  • "The Last Handshake" Caption Contest: The Final Photo Of Obama And Putin Together?

    While China’s president Xi was busy dancing on the grave of TPP and rolling out its own regional free-trade alternative during the APEC summit in Peru, Obama was just as busy defending his vanishing legacy to an international audience for the last time. He was even busier projecting his denial before the entire world. As AFP reports, after the APEC summit closed on Sunday, Obama insisted that the 12-nation trans-Pacific deal, a key part of his now failed “pivot” to Asia, was far from dead and those involved still wanted to move forward with the United States.

    Actually, no, it’s dead, but what is very much alive was Obama’s sudden realization that the policies he had been pushing for 8 years have led to a “globallized” world that has never been more splintered and where the wealth trickled-up, crushing the middle class just as the “fringe blogs” warned would happen:

    The president also sought to answer rising concerns about globalization, saying that “historic gains in prosperity” had not been evenly distributed and there was a growing gap between rich and poor.

     

    “That can reverberate through our politics,” he said. “That’s why I firmly believe one of our greatest challenges in the years ahead across our nations and within them will be to make sure that the benefits of the global economy are shared by more people.”

    No Barack, it will not be your challenge. You are now out, leaving behind just a fake – and fading – facade of a recovery narrative built upon $15 trillion in global central bank liquidity, meant to prop up stock markets to all time highs even as a violent protest movement against your policies resulted in the biggest political shock of a generation… that and an all too real $20 trillion in government debt.

    There is one way your departure will be missed, however: by exiting the global political arena, you will also deprive the world of what may have been the best photo ops ever: those between the departing US president, and the remaining Russian one.

    Today, we witnessed one final such historic event, when in what is likely to be their last in-person meeting before Obama leaves office, the US president and his Russian counterpart Putin “spoke for around  about four minutes” on Sunday at the APEC summit.

    As Reuters recounts their final meeting, the two men met at the start of the summit meeting in Lima, Peru’s capital. They exchanged pleasantries and remained standing as they spoke.

    What was said was irrelevant, but goes along the following lines (according to Reuters): “the president urged President Putin to uphold Russia’s commitments under the Minsk agreements, underscoring the U.S. and our partners’ commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty,” a White House official said. Obama also emphasized the need for their two countries’ foreign ministers “to continue pursuing initiatives, together with the broader international community, to diminish the violence and alleviate the suffering of the Syrian people.”

    After their brief talk, Obama greeted others at the meeting before sitting down.

    It is unclear if Putin laughed before or after Obama was done dispensing “advice.” He did, however, shake Obama’s hand for the last time, as the following two historic, and sublimely captionable, photos reveal.

    We leave it up to readers to decide what may have been on either leader’s mind in this moment which distilled and sublimated the past 8 years of global history into just one second.

    Before:

    And After:

  • "What Happened To Your 'Love Trumps Hate' Line? You're All Damn Hypocrites!"

    Fox’s Judge Jeanine Pirro tore into the cast of ‘Hamilton’ for their “inappropriate” behavior this weekend, slamming it as “out and out reverse racism that tee’d up hate for a man who has done nothing to deserve it.”

    Pirro raged, Pence and President-elect Donald Trump won an election fair and square because “forgotten Americans, most of whom can’t afford tickets to your play, and may not have even heard of it, got up and voted” against the Democrats’ policies.

    Pirro said Pence was trying to enjoy some time with his family after the grueling campaign and post-election transition work, but instead his presence was used “as a political bully pulpit.”

     

    She noted that Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders attended the show in the past without issue.

     

    “Last night violates everything you say you stand for. That big tent, inclusive broad-minded acceptance of everyone, even people who don’t look or act like you. What happened to your old ‘love trumps hate’ line? You’re all damn hypocrites!” she said.

    Full rant below…

  • Is Silver Set To Surge Off Significant Support?

    Gold specs are deserting the precious metal…

     

    And Gold ETF holdings are tumbling at their fastet rate since 2013…

     

    Which just happened to coincide with Gold's $1200 lows…

    But as Dana Lyons' Tumblr explains, Silver prices are testing a confluence of potential support levels.

    We often get questions about our technical analysis on specific assets or securities, especially as it pertains to potential support or resistance levels on the chart. We don’t post many of those types of charts anymore but we present one today in the chart of the popular iShares Silver Trust, ticker, SLV. The impetus was partially because of the amount of attention on PM’s, but primarily due to a potential inflection point on the chart.

    Everyone asks “when is XYZ going to bottom”? There is no way to ever know for sure. The best thing you can do is identify the most likely points of support in order to put the best odds of success on your side. And the best setups are always when multiple key potential support levels line up in the same vicinity. Such a setup may be present now in the chart of SLV, in our view.

    So what are the potential support levels?:

    • The 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of the November-August Rally ~15.62
    • The 500-Day Simple Moving Average ~15.64
    • The June 7 closing price (15.60) from which SLV gapped up, launching it on its final run to 19.71

    As the chart shows, SLV is testing this level today. In fact, the low of the day was exactly 15.60.

    image

    So will this 15.60 level hold? Obviously nobody knows for sure. At least there are multiple key levels of potential support there, however. That puts decent odds of success with the silver bulls – as well as giving them a level with which to play off of. If SLV remains above there, it can bounce. If it closes below there without an immediate reversal, perhaps there is more downside to come for silver prices.

    How far will SLV bounce if it holds? Obviously, we can’t know that either. There appears to be considerable potential resistance near 16.80 and just above 18.00, if the SLV does bounce. So, that would be about 7-15% of upside – without even breaking the post-summer intermediate-term downtrend. It would take a lot more strength to convince us that the post-2015 uptrend is resuming. So, even holding this level doesn’t mean it’s up, up and away again for silver.

    For now, precious metals fans will have to be satisfied with, “Hi Ho Silver, A-Bounce!”

    *  *  *

    More from Dana Lyons, JLFMI and My401kPro.

  • China Devalues Yuan For Longest Streak Ever To 8 Year Lows

    For the 12th consecutive day, China has weakened the official fix of the Yuan against the USD, slashing its currency by over 2.2% in that time – a move only beaten by the “one-off” devaluation in August 2015 that crashed global stock markets. With a 189pip ‘devaluation’ tonight, Yuan is now trading at its weakest since June 2008

    In December 2015, China weakened Yuan 10 days straight  leading into The Fed’s rate-hike decision. The current 12-day weakening streak is an all-time record for the Yuan fix.

     

    The last four times that Yuan has plunged, US equity market volatility has exploded (and stocks have tumbled)…

    But this time is different… as Yuan has collapsed, VIX has crashed too… so far.

  • The 'United' States Of America (Without The Electoral College)

    SomeVotesMatter…

     

    Source: MichaelPRamirez.com

  • New York Governor Unveils Hate-Crime Unit, Plans Taxpayer-Funded Defense Of Criminal Illegal Immigrants

    It seems that even the Governor of the great state of New York is incapable of discerning ‘real’ from ‘fake’ news when it doesn’t fit his narrative. Proclaiming that “if there is a move to deport immigrants then I say start with me,” Andrew Cuomo appears to have missed Trump’s proposal focused on ridding America of ‘criminal illegal immigrants’ and plans “to provide immigrants who can’t afford their own defense the legal assistance they need.. because in New York, we believe in justice for all.”

    Before his address today, Cuomo tweeted…

    Apparently under the belief that committing crimes is part of the American ideal? Because no immigrants are being expelled unless they are criminal AND illegal (which seems fair to many). As Trump explained…

    “What we are going to do is get the people that are criminal
    and have criminal records, gang members, drug dealers, where a lot of
    these people, probably two million, it could be even three million, we
    are getting them out of our country or we are going to incarcerate,”
    the president-elect said in an interview with CBS’ “60 Minutes” to air Sunday evening.  “But we’re getting them out of our country, they’re here illegally.”

     

    After the border is “secure,” Trump said, his administration will
    begin to make a “determination” about what to do with the remaining
    undocumented immigrants in the U.S.

     

    “After the border is secure and after everything gets normalized,
    we’re going to make a determination on the people that they’re talking
    about who are terrific people, they’re terrific people but we are gonna
    make a determination at that,” he said. “But before we make that determination…it’s very important, we are going to secure our border.”

    But don’t let facts get in the way of a good divisive narrative…

    The focus of Cuomo’s speech was what he described as an “explosion” in hate crimes since Election Day that has prompted the creation of a special police unit to fight the uptick in New York.

    New York Police Department Commissioner James O’Neill told a New York radio station on Sunday he was disturbed by the trends.

     

    We’ve had an uptick in hate crimes, actually a little bit more than an uptick. We’re up 31% from last year. We had at this time last year 250, this year we have 328, specifically against the Muslim population in New York City — we went up from 12 to 25, and anti-Semitic is up, too, by 9% from 102 to 111,” O’Neill said.

     

    “I have no scientific evidence as to why, but you’ve been paying attention to what’s been going on in the country over the last year or so and the rhetoric has increased, and I think that might have something to do with it,” O’Neill added.

    Apparently under the impression that this is wholly due to Donald Trump and his deplorables, Cuomo has decided to ignore President-elect Trump’s actual ‘real news’ policy proposals and attack the Clinton/Obama/Romney/Soros defined divisiveness that ‘real news’ sites proclaim. As CNN reports,

    “The ugly political discourse of the election did not end on Election Day. In many ways it has gotten worse, [turning] into a social crisis that now challenges our identity as a state and as a nation and our people,” he said.

     

    President-elect Donald Trump wasn’t specifically mentioned in his church address, but Cuomo has in the past criticized Trump and vowed in a New York Daily News op-ed that he would “reject the hateful attitudes that pervaded throughout the 2016 campaign.”

     

    Calling this kind of prejudice a “social poison [in] the fabric of our nation,” the governor cited a number of recent incidents, including a scourge of swastika graffiti and the case of black freshmen at the University of Pennsylvania being sent pictures of lynchings and racial slurs.

     

    Cuomo also vowed to set up a legal defense fund for immigrants who fear prosecution under a Trump administration. He said the fund would be the first of its kind.

     

    The plan, he said, would be to set up a public-private partnership “to provide immigrants who can’t afford their own defense the legal assistance they need … because in New York, we believe in justice for all,” Cuomo said.

     

    He added, “If there is a move to deport immigrants then I say start with me. I am a son of immigrants. Son of Mario Cuomo, who is the son of Andrea Cuomo, a poor Italian immigrant who came to this country without a job, without money, or resources and he was here only for the promise of America.”

    But do not worry dear snowflakes, Governor Cuomo has something for you too… Cuomo’s plans also include the expansion of New York’s Human Rights Law to protect students who are bullied or discriminated against.

    So to summarize – hate crimes are up year-to-date (not since the election, since that would be statistically insignificant) and that bump must be due to Trump’s encouragement of it (as opposed to the Clinton campaign’s constant efforts to divide the nation by pointing out Trump’s faults for each cohort of the country). And for anyone who is actually prosecuted, worried about being prosecuted, or just generally feeling bad about shit, New York state taxpayers will provide a defense protection (even for the criminal illegal immigrants).

    Presumably that will come from the “fairer share” that the wealthy will pay? Or will the Millennials outside Trump Tower all offer up some of their Starbucks wages to keep America safe again?

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Today’s News 20th November 2016

  • War Breaks Out Between Neo-Cons And Libertarians Over Trump's Foreign Policy

    In late October, when it was still conventional wisdom that Hillary was “guaranteed” to win the presidency, the WaPo explained that among the neo-con, foreign policy “elites” of the Pentagon, a feeling of calm content had spread: after all, it was just a matter of time before the “pacifist” Obama was out, replaced by the more hawkish Hillary.

    As the WaPo reported, “there is one corner of Washington where Donald Trump’s scorched-earth presidential campaign is treated as a mere distraction and where bipartisanship reigns. In the rarefied world of the Washington foreign policy establishment, President Obama’s departure from the White House — and the possible return of a more conventional and hawkish Hillary Clinton — is being met with quiet relief.”

    The Republicans and Democrats who make up the foreign policy elite are laying the groundwork for a more assertive American foreign policy via a flurry of reports shaped by officials who are likely to play senior roles in a potential Clinton White House.

    Oops.

    Not only did the “foreign policy” elite get the Trump “scorched-earth distraction” dead wrong, it now has to scramble to find what leverage – if any – it has in defining Trump’s foreign policy.  Worse, America’s warmongers are now waging war (if only metaphorically: we all know they can’t wait for the real thing) against libertarians for direct access to Trump’s front door, a contingency they had never planned for. 

    As The Hill reported earlier, “a battle is brewing between the GOP foreign policy establishment and outsiders over who will sit on President-elect Donald Trump’s national security team. The fight pits hawks and neoconservatives who served in the former Bush administrations against those on the GOP foreign policy edges.”

    Taking a page out of Ron Paul’s book, the libertarians, isolationists and realists see an opportunity to pull back America’s commitments around the world, spend less money on foreign aid and “nation-building,” curtail expensive military campaigns and troop deployments, and intervene militarily only to protect American interests. In short: these are people who believe that human life, and the avoidance of war, is more valuable than another record quarter for Raytheon, Lockheed or Boeing. 

    On the other hand, the so-called establishment camp, many of whom disavowed Trump during the campaign, is made up of the same people who effectively ran Hillary Clinton’s tenure while she was Secretary of State, fully intent on creating zones of conflict, political instability and outright war in every imaginable place, from North Africa to Ukraine. This group is pushing for Stephen Hadley, who served as national security adviser under George W. Bush. Another Bush ally, John Bolton whose name has been floated as a possible secretary of State, also falls into this camp.

    According to The Hill, other neo-con, establishment candidates floated include Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), outgoing Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.), rising star Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), and senior fellow at conservative think-tank American Enterprise Institute and former Sen. Jim Talent (R-Mo.). 

    “These figures all generally believe that the United States needs to take an active role in the world from the Middle East to East Asia to deter enemies and reassure allies.”

    In short, should this group prevail, it would be the equivalent of 4 more years of HIllary Clinton running the State Department.

    The outsider group sees things differently.

    They want to revamp American foreign policy in a different direction from the last two administrations. Luckily, this particular camp is also more in line with Trump’s views questioning the value of NATO, a position that horrified many in the establishment camp. 

    “How many people sleep better knowing that the Baltics are part of NATO? They don’t make us safer, in fact, quite the opposite. We need to think really hard about these commitments,” said William Ruger, vice president of research and policy at the Charles Koch Institute.

    A prominent member of the outsiders is Rand Paul, skeptic of Bush’s foreign policy, who has criticized Bolton in the last few days. Paul on Tuesday blasted Bolton in an op-ed in Rare as “a longtime member of the failed Washington elite that Trump vowed to oppose.” 

    Others, however, have defended Bolton. Eliot Cohen, a former Bush State Department senior adviser, tweeted late Tuesday that Bolton “would be a capable Secretary of State — experienced & tough.”

    Then again, what Cohen thinks does not matter: he is perhaps the most visible foreign policy establishment type who has been critical of Trump’s transition. He said this week that he had been asked by a friend in Trump’s orbit to submit names of people in the establishment who might want to serve. Cohen told his friend that those skeptical of Trump would want to know who was leading his administration on foreign policy.

    When Cohen grew critical of those questions, he wrote a biting op-ed in The Washington Post advising people to not work for Trump, at least for the time being. “At the very least, they should wait to see who gets the top jobs. Until then, let the Trump team fill the deputy assistant secretary and assistant secretary jobs with civil servants, retired military officers and diplomats, or the large supply of loyal or obsequious second-raters who will be eager to serve,” he wrote. 

    Some saw the op-ed as good news, believing it signified a radical turn by Trump from a foreign party establishment that should be ignored. “The first encouraging news I’ve heard in days. If a leader of #NeverTrump is saying this, that means the establishment hasn’t won. Yet,” said Christopher Preble of the CATO Institute.

    However, neo-cons are bad at losing, so they have redoubled efforts to land one of their own next to Trump. Lindsey Graham, a prominent foreign policy hawk in the Senate, issued an endorsement of Bolton on Thursday, saying: “He understands who our friends and enemies are. We see the world in very similar ways.”

    He also slammed Paul’s criticism of Bolton: “You could put the number of Republicans who will follow Rand Paul’s advice on national security in a very small car.  Rand is my friend but he’s a libertarian and an outlier in the party on these issues.”

    Funny, that’s exactly what the experts said about Trump’s chances of winning not even two weeks ago.

    Meanwhile, the biggest warmonger, Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John McCain, who has not said who he’d like to see in Trump’s cabinet, laid down a marker on Tuesday by warning the future Trump administration against trying to seek an improved relationship with adversary Russia. “When America has been at its greatest, it is when we have stood on the side those fighting tyranny. That is where we must stand again,” he warned.

    Luckily, McCain – whose relationship with Trump has been at rock bottom ever since Trump’s first appearance in the presidential campaign – has zero impact on the thinking of Trump.

    Furthermore, speaking of Russia, Retired Amy Col. Andrew Bacevich said there needs to be a rethink of American foreign policy. He said the U.S. must consider whether Saudi Arabia and Pakistan qualify as U.S. allies, and the growing divergence between the U.S. and Israel.   “The establishment doesn’t want to touch questions like these with a ten foot pole,” he said at a conference on Tuesday hosted by The American Conservative, the Charles Koch Institute, and the George Washington University Department of Political Science.

    Furthermore, resetting the “deplorable” relations with Russia is a necessary if not sufficient condition to halt the incipient nuclear arms build up that has resulted of the recent dramatic return of the Cold War. As such, a Trump presidency while potentially a failure, may be best remember for avoiding the launch of World War III. If, that is, he manages to prevent the influence of neo-cons in his cabinet.

    And then there are the wildcards: those Trump advisers who are difficult to peg into which camp they fall into. One example is retired Army Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, who was selected by Trump as his national security adviser.  Flynn is a “curious case,” said Daniel Larison, senior editor at The American Conservative. The retired Army general has said he wants to work with Russia, but also expressed contrary views in his book “Field of Fight.” 

    According to Larison, Flynn writes of an “enemy alliance” against the U.S. that includes Russia, North Korea, China, Iran, Syria, Cuba, Bolivia, Venezuela, Nicaragua, al-Qaida, Hezbollah, and the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. From that standpoint, he is about as “establishment” as they come.

    It’s also not crystal clear which camp Giuliani falls into. The former mayor is known as a fierce critic of Islamic extremism but has scant foreign policy experience. 

    Most say what is likely is change.

    “Change is coming to American grand strategy whether we like it or not,’ said Christopher Layne, Robert M. Gates Chair in National Security at Texas A&M University. 

    “I think we are overdue for American retrenchment. Americans are beginning to suffer from hegemony fatigue,” he said.

    And, let’s not forget, the tens of thousands of innocent men, women and children who are droned to death every year by anonymous remote-control operators in the US just so the US can pursue its global hegemonic interest.They most certainly have, and unless something indeed changes, will continue to suffer, leading to even more resentment against the US, and even more attacks against US citizens around the globe, and on US soil. Some call them terrorism, others call them retaliation.

  • Trump "Ripped" Into Chris Christie Before Demoting Him By Phone Call

    After months of disappointments for Chris Christie, once one of the Republican Party’s brightest stars, the New Jersey governor was virtually assured a position in a Donald Trump administration. As one of the first big-name politicians to endorse the Manhattan billionaire, Christie had earned Trump’s gratitude the pundits predicted. And then everything fell apart.

    Among the top political stories in the week of Trump’s election, was that just a few months after being denied the VP slot, Christie suffered another public humiliation when he was demoted as Chairman of Trump’s presidential transition team, and was replaced by VP Mike Pence.

    Thanks to a Politico report, we learn the details of the embarrassing phone call in which Trump “ripped” into Christie, before removing him from his transition team.

    In the phone call, “Trump expressed his worry about the recent conviction of two of the governor’s former top aides, who had accused him of knowing more about the shutdown of the George Washington Bridge than he let on. Was more damaging information to come, Trump wondered?”

    Trump and his top aides were most concerned about two issues, according to nearly a dozen people briefed on the process: Christie’s mismanagement of the transition, and the lingering political fallout of the Bridgegate scandal.

    Trump was also unhappy with the number of lobbyists that Christie had on the transition team, as well as his choice to fill the staff with his own friends and loyalists.

    In the days following the election, Trump expressed deep frustration about how Christie was handling the transition. In particular, he vented about how the governor had loaded up the team with lobbyists, the very class of people Trump had campaigned against, with his calls to “drain the swamp” in Washington. The president-elect also noticed that Christie had stocked his team with old New Jersey friends and allies.

     

    There were other issues. Once the dust settled from their surprise win, the Trump team noticed that Christie had done little to vet potential administration picks or to dig into potential conflicts of interests. With Democrats eager to pounce on any early mistake, it was an oversight they simply couldn’t afford.

    Additionally, Christie was reportedly deeply disliked by Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who has become an influential advisor on the Trump campaign:

    In the months to come, Kushner, a 35-year-old New York City real estate mogul who grew up in New Jersey, would become a bigger problem for Christie, arguing forcefully against Trump making the governor his running mate. Christie, a former U.S. attorney, became convinced that Kushner was retaliating over his 2004 prosecution of Kushner’s father, Charles.

     

    Still, while they never became close, Kushner and Christie agreed to work together. At several points, according to two sources, Trump took steps to forge a warmer relationship between them — apparently without success.

     

    Kushner’s allies say the idea that he’s out for personal vengeance, promoted in several recent stories, is simplistic and overblown. Rather, they argue, the Trump son-in-law has more substantive concerns — viewing the governor as badly damaged following the Bridgegate affair. And in the days following the election, Kushner told others in Trump Tower that Christie oversaw a messy, lobbyist-filled transition operation that simply needed to be cleaned up.

    By Thursday of last week, Trump was telling aides that he was ready to make a change.

    * * *

    How is Christie faring now and what are his future prospects?

    In recent days, Christie’s advisers have reached out to him to see how he’s holding up. He’s fine, he’s told them. It was only a matter of time that the transition process would be taken from him once the election was over. On Thursday, during an appearance in Atlantic City, Christie waved off talk about his career prospects — and criticized reporters for “prognosticating” about his future.

     

    “I know all of them have taken inordinate concern, just in the last 10 days or so, about my future. All of them have become, you know, employment counselors,” he added. “I have every intention of serving out my full term as governor — I’ve said that from the beginning.”

    Christie’s advisers speculate that the governor might exit politics entirely when his term expires in January 2018. Some of them suggest that Christie, an avid sports fan, could take a job as a sports radio host. He is an occasional guest caller to WFAN, the popular New York City-based sports talk station. To some, it’s far too early to write him off. “He’s the most interesting politician I’ve seen since Bill Clinton,” said former New Jersey Gov. Tom Kean, a Christie mentor. “He’s got an enormous set of skills.”

  • Fear And Loathing Inside The Deep State

    Submitted by Larchmonter445 via The Saker,

    Everyone in the Deep State is threatened by the Trump Presidency. The Deep State understands that power, funding, ideological stratagems and domination of government, media, academia, think tanks and NGOs are in the ‘field of fight’, to use the book title by a prime target the Deep State intends to destroy in order to save itself from Trump.

    Lt. General (ret.) Michael T. Flynn

    Lt. General (ret.) Michael T. Flynn, three-star expert in Military Intelligence, former director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), counselor to Trump for the last fifteen months, is a vital Trump ally the Deep State is attempting to discredit.

    We have seen the one-week ferocious political and media attack on Stephen Bannon, begun the instant that Bannon was named Trump’s number one strategist-advisor. Bannon is the theologian of Drain the Swamp, the Trump policy to rid the system of corruption and catastrophically disastrous policies and bureaucrat enablers.

    To understand Steve Bannon, take the time to read this transcription or listen to the audio Q&A from a 2014 event in the Vatican. He lays out his philosophical agenda, and used the 2016 campaign to advance his war on the Elites.

    Drain the Swamp pertains to more than getting the corruption out of the system.

    Steve Bannon

    Bannon now has Trump’s full backing to destroy the UniParty, defeat the Globalists, banish the warmongers of the MIC and help the legal prosecution of the corrupt. This is the Revolution to end the domestic Tyranny and the global Hegemon.

    The usual weapons of personal destruction have been launched at Bannon to destroy him and to deprive Trump of his most effective counselor and field marshall. Bannon has been branded a racist, an anti-semite, a white supremacist, an Islamophobe and a misogynist. In every forum and media outlet, the meme of Bannon being the worst human on the planet played as intensively as how the Dems attacked Trump during the campaign.

    Relentless lies, chorused by every host, talking head, and hater of every value Trump and Bannon had campaigned for were spewed on Bannon’s name. All fabricated, most based on a few headlines written by Milo Yiannopoulos in Breitbart.com, alt right agitprop pieces constructed to collect reader clicks, revenues for Breitbart and fame for Milo. Bannon as chief of Breitbart was then scourged for those headlines. Mockery by Milo used against Steve Bannon.

    It was all the Media needed. But the Deep State directed it for good reason. Bannon is the Pale Rider coming to destroy them.

    Steve Bannon is dedicated to cleansing government and the financial system controlled by all those who have reigned over the foreign regime changes, the transfer of middle class wealth and income to Wall Street, paper wealth from derivatives to hedge fund and corporate global leaders, trillions to the 0.01% elites, all of whom populate the Ultra Wealthy Class, a new feudalism of billionaires and millionaires.

    Bannon’s life long credentials and work with Jews, Blacks, females and Muslims eventually helped stifle the Media excesses. But the vicious branding may stick long after the inauguration.

    The fear and loathing of the Deep State is focused on another nemesis and threat in the person of General Flynn. Flynn challenges the Deep State’s incompetence, particularly its lack of results in the fight against terrorism. Flynn dealt with this in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. He wrote a white paper on the state of US military Intelligence and the need to fix it.

    Flynn also is sickened with the 2012 Benghazi event and coverup, the lies of Clinton and the abandonment by the command structure of CIA, Pentagon, State and NSC. The Syrian war, the attempted coup of Erdogan, and the carnage wrought by bad policies, sheepish leadership and less-than-best methods of Intelligence gathering and usage motivated the General to join Trump.

    Flynn is now Trump’s guide into the Presidential raw data Intel reports and briefings. General Flynn is Trump’s personal analyst for interpretation of the data. Flynn has attended every briefing Trump has received. He is in place and the Deep State is out. So, they have mounted their counter-attack as soon as it was clear he would head the reform of the Intelligence community, and serve the newly elected President.

    Flynn has recruited over two hundred generals and admirals and twenty-two Medal of Honor recipients to the successful Trump campaign. Now some of the generals are possible cabinet or undersecretary department nominees or agency appointees.

    The Deep State is in deep trouble. General Flynn will probably be NSC head and I think he will have real power over fifteen other Intelligence agencies. Flynn may have great power over huge swaths of the MIC. He certainly will assist in the cleaning out of neocons and feckless employees, managers, supervisors and directors.

    Against Flynn, the Deep State is using a more traditional model of career attack and personal destruction than it did with Bannon. Multiple articles written to show that Flynn and Putin, Flynn and Russia, Flynn and RT media are part of the Trump gang of pro-Russian contacts connected to the Kremlin.

    Below is General Flynn at dinner with President Putin in Moscow. He explains in an interview.

    Other Trump-Putin supposed contacts are Carter Page and Paul Manafort, both of whom were attacked by the Media for the Deep State months ago. They resigned under political pressure applied through the media.

    In a payback, the Deep State lost some of their own sent to the Trump campaign who were unable to survive first inspection. They were dropped from the Trump campaign transition team.

    But, once Trump is sworn in, Carter Page will be back, most likely. He has connections to Gazprom, is well-liked in Moscow, and will be a link for American energy companies and perhaps some joint ventures in the gas field development and pipeline industry. Several friends of Trump are from the gas and oil industry, and the world is a small world when energy is the issue. The Arctic, the eastern Mediterranean, the South China Sea and other large development zones have enormous new fields to be tapped and exploited. Even the Black Sea zone around Crimea has yet-to-be-tapped energy stores.

    The primary interest of the Trump foreign policy will be to make America wealthy again. The Eurasian development has already attracted Trump to the OBOR of China and the AIIB infrastructure bank. Probably the entire New Silk Road of China and EAEU of Russia is not going to be without major US participation. The difference now is facilitation, participation, investment and benefits instead of obstruction, destabilization and terrorism used to thwart it all.

    To destroy Flynn and weaken Trump with the Intelligence and Military communities, the classic Washington technique of long articles with many negative anonymous sourced comments was used, carefully crafted headlines and paragraph headers, all designed for very negative Google Search feeds.

    The latest is about Flynn and Turkish “operatives”. Sounds like they met in dark alleys or underground passageways. Maybe in some Ankara safehouse, eh?

    It turns out quite differently.

    Hilal Mutlu (left) and Ibrahim Kurtulus (center) with Retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn at Oct. 10, 2016 event. (Youtube screen grab)

    But Flynn is obviously being watched closely by CIA/State Dept. They know he is doing the bidding of Trump. And for good reason, Trump needs to know which way Turkey is leaning post-coup? And how sensitive is the Kurd issue in Syria? What are the ramifications of the US and Russia working in tandem against ISIS in Syria? Will Turkey help with safe zones for refugees? Will Turkey leave Syria after the war or does it plan to resist Russia and Assad? What about NATO? What about the Uyghurs Turkey protects, and is China being forced to come with military to put down the Uyghurs inside ISIS? Will the issue of demanding Fethullah Gulen’s extradition continue? Will there be mass death penalties for the imprisoned coup participants and Gulen’s followers?

    Flynn had a panoply of possible questions to be answered by the operatives from Erdogan. And the Turks would have questions they wanted answered with some hint of Trump’s positions.

    The Deep State are tracking Flynn and the Turks and are now exposing his links as a professional consultant. Nothing illegal. Nothing suspicious. Nothing out of the ordinary. But it was General Flynn, Trump’s guy. Smear him.

    How else would this information surface in the Washington Post except from the Deep State? And if you know the history of the Deep State, the WaPo is their first choice for all leaks, briefings in depth, exposes used to undermine officials who cross them or who point to the Deep States’ misdeeds or failures. You won’t find Sy Hersh’s articles in WaPo.

    The point of the articles about General Flynn was to shame him, to put down his personality, his lack of obedience to the Obama regime. He was investigated for giving Intel to foreign nations, we are told. He shared Intelligence with the Pakistanis, we are told. Read how his fellow generals talk about him.

    Imagine if the Deep State decided that Intelligence should never be shared. Well, the U.S. would have no allies. No nation joins a war effort without Intelligence for their military. Flynn, whose entire thirty-plus year career has been in Intelligence understands that. And he did it. Proudly, he related to the investigators, and it all was dropped except the record and the reporting of it now.

    The investigation was actually to cast a black mark on Flynn to be found later, by the uninformed, at the most sensitive of times. In this case, it is to weaken Flynn, to weaken Trump.

    “Mike Flynn shares Intel. Mike Flynn acts without checking with what the Deep State wants.” It turns out that Flynn did get approval for all he did. But he simply did the professional thing. He acted in behalf of his specialty, his profession, his oath of duty and the American people who paid him to protect America.

    There is something to be gained by studying this meeting with Turkey’s operatives. Flynn’s meeting signals that Trump will not likely arm the Kurds with heavy weapons. That would drive Turkey into the Russian-Iranian embrace fully. A practical solution to defeating ISIS and AQ and ending the Syrian war has to avoid losing Turkey. Trump is not going to be trying to coup anyone. His policy is no regime changes. He also does not like these secret wars of the CIA. If there is to be war, he wants it fought by the military, with a plan for victory. Principally, Trump’s wars will be like President Eisenhower’s. There were none for eight years.

    The warmongers and neocons of the Deep State and surface government will try to work over all the Trump nominees in the security and policy arena. Trump has refused to listen to any of them, though a few have been invited in to the goings on. However, we don’t know who is talking to Trump and who is talking to the various panels of experts that will advise who they think he should select. So a few neocons and warmongers like John Bolton and General Keane have made it into Trump Tower. But he eschewed them all these years and throughout the campaign. I doubt they will have any role in policy. He considers them failures.

    Expect very deep shakeouts at CIA and State. I think Flynn will use fellow military he knows and trusts as deputies and undersecretaries. General Keith Kellogg and General Ronald Burgess are likely for important positions.

    There has to be this cleaning out of the subterranean world of the Deep State.  If President Carter got rid of 800 officers when Stansfield Turner tried cleaning out the CIA, I’m betting there are 1500 officers in the CIA who need retirement now.

    As for the State Department and the Clinton corruption of pay for play, that is only half the problem. The eighty years of Khazarian dominance of the State Department has created the need that whole thing ought to be shut down except for visas at embassies and consulates. (I’d use the Commerce Department in the interim. Send everyone else from State home. Board up Foggy Bottom for ten years.)

    Addendum: General Flynn early in the primary campaign consulted as advisor to five candidates. Carly Fiorina, Scott Walker, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, and Donald Trump. He chose Trump as the one who wanted to be President in order to fix the country and make America great again. Now, Trump, Bannon and Flynn are going to drain the swamp, if they can survive.

    (Flynn has been named NSC Advisor and will command a staff of 400 from all the other Intel agencies, it has been reported by Fox and AP.)

  • "Brace For Economic Disruption" SocGen Sees "Sharp Rise In Gold" As India Plans Cap On Cash Holdings

    India's 'de-monetization' scheme has caused chaos across the nation, and while SocGen says the government's plan may have some short-term success in curbing so-called 'black-money', investors should "brace for economic disruption" as Bloomberg reports the Indian government is considering a cap on cash holdings for individuals. As SocGen concludes, "people will now be more inclined to park their black income in gold rather than in currency."

    The daily images of utter chaos in India that has brought the conutry's economy to a standstill since they unleashed their war on cash…

    Are perhaps about to get worse, as Bloomberg reports, India is set to consider a cap on cash holdings for individuals…

    Measure planned to prevent people from hoarding cash and generating income that could evade taxes, according to government officials with direct knowledge of the matter.

     

    Planned measures include limit on large cash withdrawals from bank, the officials said, asking not to be identified citing rules on speaking to media.

     

    Budget, due in February, may have steps to encourage use of checks, credit and debit cards.

     

    Purchase of gold jewelry said to be made more stringent to prevent switching of asset from cash.

     

    Finance Ministry spokesman D. S. Malik couldn’t be reached for comment.

    But, as SocGen's Kunal Kumar Kundu writes, the demonetisation scheme (banning the use of old high-denomination banknotes – INR500 and INR1000) announced by India’s PM Modi on 8 November is likely to have only a short-term impact on corruption and black money, unless it is followed by multiple other moves aimed at curbing these issues.

    However, we do expect short-term disruption to the economy, especially in rural areas, due to a sharp drop in consumption as the cash crunch hits. The extent of the disruption will depend on how soon new banknotes come into the system. If this takes place over the next three to four weeks (as promised by the government) the damage should be limited. Otherwise, the disruption could be prolonged. At the same time, there is also a possibility of a short-term increase in tax revenue collection which could enable the government to keep its deficit within target and continue with all its desired expenditure (including capex) which we earlier feared may have to be curtailed as deficit challenges manifested. In the interim, sectors that are heavily dependent on cash transactions (essentially because these are gateways to parking black income), i.e. construction, real estate and gems & jewellery, are likely to be adversely affected over the short term.

    On the macro front, weaker consumption could mean lower inflation, thereby opening up the possibility of an earlier rate cut by RBI. Additionally, with people being forced to deposit large quantities of high-value notes, banks are seeing a surge in low-cost deposits which should lower cost of funds and result in faster transmission of monetary policy action through the interest rate channel. However, given the current weak credit environment, we see a spike in credit growth as unlikely. The only potential long-term effect of this move could be deterioration in India’s current account deficit (CAD), as people will now be more inclined to park their black income in gold rather than in currency, thereby leading to sharp rise in gold imports.

    India’s fight against black money – the end has corrupted the means

    At around 8pm on 8 November, India’s PM Modi announced, in a broadcast to the nation, that India’s INR500 and INR1000 banknotes would no longer be recognised as legal tender from midnight and that citizens would be able to exchange their existing notes of these denominations for other available (and legal) tender until 31 December 2016. The aim of the action was to counter tax evasion, counterfeiting and corruption. The idea of eliminating large denominations is that it makes it harder to hide large amounts of cash.

    The problem with the move is that, in one fell swoop, just over 86% of all banknotes in circulation became just paper. Fact is, high percentage of transactions take place in cash in India, especially in the rural areas. The potential fallout from such a nationwide measure could have been averted if the government had been better prepared to handle the contingencies. However, the need for the government to keep the move a secret — so that tax evaders wouldn’t be alerted before the demonetisation took place — affected preparedness. Even Finance Minister Jaitley admitted that it would take two to three weeks to reconfigure the ATMs to handle the newer and larger notes. Given that India currently has about 202,801 ATMs all over the country, it could potentially take longer.

    Existing loopholes have provided an escape hatch

    Before discussing the economic impact of the move, it is important to understand the potential impact it could have on the existing block of black money in the economy and its ability to stop generation of further black money in the economy in the future. We think that while the existing stock of black money will be negatively impacted, only part of it will actually come to the fore. There are still many loopholes in the system through which a large portion of black money is able to enter the formal banking channel without the government’s knowledge. While the country is receiving virtually one notification per day from the RBI to plug loopholes that are coming to light (another indication of lack of preparedness), this process looks set to continue. Thus, only part of the black money will actually be reported and experts think that some of it will never come back.

    Black money represents only a small fraction of black wealth

    The problem is that black money forms only a small portion of the black wealth held in the economy. In the past five years, income tax raids have found that only 5-6% of black money is kept in hard cash. Moreover, those who have amassed a sizable amount of black money are equipped at finding ways around demonetisation by converting their existing cash into bullion, gold jewellery, real estate and foreign currencies through middle men. To that extent the demonetisation scheme will only impact part of the overall stock of black wealth in the economy.

    The important thing is, however, to remember that black income is a flow concept and not a stock concept. Hence, the impact will only be temporary, and black money will eventually begin to be generated again as the move will have no impact on the generation of black income itself. This is because there are a large number of mechanisms by which such incomes are generated, and these may or may not depend on cash circulation. Normally, black income is generated by manipulating the books of accounts of businesses — revenues are understated while costs are overstated. Black income becomes a stock when it is parked – be it through property, gold, currency, etc. This scheme will only impact the black income that is parked in the form of currency. Given that only around 6% of black wealth is parked in currency form and only a part of that will be impacted, the overall impact of the measure is likely to be limited and of short duration.

    Demonetisation is not enough to fight the black money menace

    For a sustained crackdown on black money, multiple other attendant measures need to be taken to rein in black wealth generation. These include:

    • Direct tax reforms – While much discussion has taken place over the last decade, no action has been taken so far. There are indications that the government may want to implement reform in this area – widening the tax base, lowering tax rates and removing exemptions. If an announcement in this regard is indeed made during the forthcoming budget could be positive for the economy in the long term.
    • Transparency in political funding – In India, the process of political funding remains very opaque and has evolved into a major end-use for black money. Unfortunately, we are yet to see any concrete action to tackle this menace.
    • Agriculture income tax – Agricultural income is not taxed at all in India. For a country with such a poor direct-tax to GDP ratio, it is incomprehensible how virtually 15% of the economy remains untaxed. In fact, this has emerged as a significant conduit for tax evasion as a large chunk of income is shown as agricultural income and hence there is no incidence of tax.
    • Investment through the Participatory Notes route – Participatory Notes (commonly known as P-Notes or PNs) are instruments issued by registered foreign institutional investors (FII) to overseas investors who wish to invest in the Indian stock markets without registering themselves with the market regulator, the Securities and Exchange Board of India – SEBI. This anonymity allows many individuals with illbegotten wealth to invest in the Indian stock markets. Stricter measures need to be imposed to control the flow of such funds into the market.

    Like the expected impact on black money, we believe the impact on counterfeit currency will also be temporary. For sure, the existing stock of such banknotes will be extinguished, but it will only be a matter of time before the counterfeiters get back into action.

    Economic impact

    In the short term, the effect is likely to be negative on balance. However, we do not expect any long-term impact from this policy alone.

    Negative

    We feel this move could be negative for consumption in the short term. In India, especially in the rural areas, cash transactions account for the largest share of overall transactions in the economy. In urban areas, it is less. However, the challenges are multiple. According to data from the finance ministry, only about 32% of India’s population has access to financial institutions like banks and post offices. Moreover, the distribution of banks is highly skewed, with around a third of all bank branches being concentrated in only 60 Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities/towns. More importantly, close to 60% of workers earn their wages in cash, of which more than half are daily wage earners. The majority of small mom-and-pop shops deal only in cash, especially in rural areas. With 86% of banknotes moving out of circulation at just a few hours’ notice and with a limited amount of cash being made available in lieu, the effect has so far has been quite disruptive. This is no surprise given that as per an estimate by the Fletcher School at the Tufts University, in India 86.6% of transactions by value were carried out in cash in 2012. While this figure would have come down since then, it will still be very high. The fact is that India remains largely a cash economy. According to the same Fletcher School study, the ratio of currency to GDP in India (12.2%) is higher than for countries like Russia (11.9%), Brazil (4.1%) and Mexico (5.7%). Changing age-old habits is a long-term process and the demonetisation will have caught a lot of people on the wrong foot. Also, as mentioned earlier, in an effort to keep the decision secret, the actual implementation fell short of expectations. Even the banks, which were responsible for implementing this enormous project, were kept in the dark, thereby affecting their preparedness. Whether normalcy will return in another month’s time, will depend on the government’s ability to make new cash available based on its stated timeline. Having said that we think that the stress in rural areas will persist for some time.

    Overall, we expect consumption in urban areas to be lower, at least until December, while the impact on rural areas could continue for longer. Nevertheless, we will keep tracking the situation and by mid-January we should have a better sense of the level of demand
    destruction.

    Positive

    As some black wealth gets tracked, we expect a short-term spike in tax (and penal) revenue collection. This should allow the government to plug the gaping hole in the overall revenue collection budgeted for the year. Hence it should be able to maintain its fiscal deficit target for the year and continue with its overall expenditure plan (including capex), which we felt would be compromised by a build-up of revenue pressures. This benefit, however, will be a transitory in nature unless the move is followed by the tax reforms mentioned above. In the event that reforms do take place simultaneously, we would likely see a long-term structural improvement in the economy as government capex would continue unhindered resulting in more job creation.

    Overall macro impact

    GDP growth: The short-term demand destruction could be partly offset by continued government capex, which we previously expected to peter out. At this point we have limited visibility on the extent of the demand destruction that is likely to take place. On balance though, we see potential downside risks to our existing growth forecast. And the longer the disruption lasts, the greater the impact it will have.

    Inflation: In the short term, we see potential downside risks to our inflation forecast given the demand destruction.

    Monetary policy: With inflation likely to ease more than expected, there is a possibility of RBI opting for a rate cut at its December 2016 meeting as compared to our expectation of a rate cut at the April 2017 meeting. Also, with the vast amount of low-cost deposits flowing into the banking system, the banks are able to pass on the benefits of lower costs to lending rates, thereby improving the pace monetary policy transmission. However, we do not expect this to translate into higher credit growth. With credit growth currently at its weakest level, credit remains a demand issue and not a supply issue. Fiscal deficit: We believe the government will be able to meet its fiscal deficit target for the year (@ 3.5% of GDP) without having to compromise on its expenditure including capex. We had feared earlier that expenditure would be curtailed given that India’ fiscal deficit was already at 84% of the budget in the first half of FY17.

    Current account deficit: The monetisation scheme could potentially lead to a higher deficit in the longer term as many of the people who generate black income could seek to park their income in gold rather than cash in anticipation of periodic repeats of the demonetisation scheme.

    For now, the Rupee is in freefall…

  • Facebook Reveals Seven Point Plan To Eradicate "Fake News"

    Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg has a message for his billion-plus users: "you're not capable of deciding for yourself what is 'news' and what is not, so we will do it for you."

    Facebook has been widely blamed – by the left-leaning mainstream media – for allowing the spread of online misinformation, amusingly much of it pro-Trump, but Zuckerberg has rejected the notion that Facebook influenced the outcome of the election or that fake news is a major problem on the service.

    "Of all the content on Facebook, more than 99 percent of what people see is authentic," he wrote in a blog post on Saturday. 

     

    "Only a very small amount is fake news and hoaxes."

    Which is why we found it odd that since such "a very small amount" of Facebook is "fake", why the left-leaning CEO would draft up his 7-point plan for eradicating "misinformation" from the social network (via Facebook)…

    A lot of you have asked what we're doing about misinformation, so I wanted to give an update.

     

    The bottom line is: we take misinformation seriously. Our goal is to connect people with the stories they find most meaningful, and we know people want accurate information. We've been working on this problem for a long time and we take this responsibility seriously. We've made significant progress, but there is more work to be done.

     

    Historically, we have relied on our community to help us understand what is fake and what is not. Anyone on Facebook can report any link as false, and we use signals from those reports along with a number of others — like people sharing links to myth-busting sites such as Snopes — to understand which stories we can confidently classify as misinformation. Similar to clickbait, spam and scams, we penalize this content in News Feed so it's much less likely to spread.

     

    The problems here are complex, both technically and philosophically. We believe in giving people a voice, which means erring on the side of letting people share what they want whenever possible. We need to be careful not to discourage sharing of opinions or to mistakenly restrict accurate content. We do not want to be arbiters of truth ourselves, but instead rely on our community and trusted third parties.

     

    While the percentage of misinformation is relatively small, we have much more work ahead on our roadmap. Normally we wouldn't share specifics about our work in progress, but given the importance of these issues and the amount of interest in this topic, I want to outline some of the projects we already have underway:

     

    1. Stronger detection. The most important thing we can do is improve our ability to classify misinformation. This means better technical systems to detect what people will flag as false before they do it themselves.
    2. Easy reporting. Making it much easier for people to report stories as fake will help us catch more misinformation faster.
    3. Third party verification. There are many respected fact checking organizations and, while we have reached out to some, we plan to learn from many more.
    4. Warnings. We are exploring labeling stories that have been flagged as false by third parties or our community, and showing warnings when people read or share them.
    5. Related articles quality. We are raising the bar for stories that appear in related articles under links in News Feed.
    6. Disrupting fake news economics. A lot of misinformation is driven by financially motivated spam. We're looking into disrupting the economics with ads policies like the one we announced earlier this week, and better ad farm detection.
    7.  Listening. We will continue to work with journalists and others in the news industry to get their input, in particular, to better understand their fact checking systems and learn from them.

     

    Some of these ideas will work well, and some will not. But I want you to know that we have always taken this seriously, we understand how important the issue is for our community and we are committed to getting this right.

    So to clarify, Facebook will make it easier for any Tom, Dick, Or Harriet to complain about a story that will necessarily cut the revenues from that entity and will rely on 'fact-checking' organizations, establishment 3rd parties, and the mainstream media for input.

    Well what could go wrong?

    As we noted previously, while Facebook (or Google) have every right to tweak their ad policies however they see fit – especially if in the process their own ad revenue decline, as both companies retain a portion of the ad proceeds they pay out to content providers – the move is yet another step on a slippery slope, one which begins with determining just what is considered "fake news" and ends with blanket internet censorship along ideological lines.

    Which we find especially ironic considering much of the "pro Clinton" press was terrified that it would be Trump who would be the one to hint at or enforce censorship. It seems the media does not need Trump for that: it can do it quite well on its own.

  • The American Military's Real Problem: Shooting 'Ants' With 'Elephant Guns'

    Submitted by Tobias Burgers via Strategic-Culture.org,

    In combating asymmetric threats, we have to ask ourselves, on which side of the asymmetry do we sit? Typically and almost in a cliché manner, we depict our side as superior – we have the technology, we have the equipment, we have the on-going development capabilities. But do we really have the money for such high-end, extended, near-endless military campaigns?

    Consider the defensive action by USS Mason in the Red Sea in October 2016. Its response to a rebel attack compels us to rethink the cost factor involved in defensive measures, and how we popularly interpret the costs of war and national security. A few short seconds of fending off a Yemeni rebel attack cost the United States NAVY (USN) an unsettling $8 million. Cost of the rebel attack: $500,000 or less than 10 percent of USS Mason’s reaction.

    In this article, we advocate a realignment of security and defense debates to position them in the context of what it means to wage high-tech war in the twenty-first century. The asymmetry of warfare has never been more evident than in the material costs of warfighting.

    America’s wars of the twenty-first century against non-state soldiers or non-state militants seem to require high and higher-tech weapons. They will include machines necessary for fast and effective transportation, weapons that kill and do not kill, personal equipment as part of soldiers’ combat uniforms, “unmanned” or remote equipment, anytime/anywhere communications technology, robotic platforms, global surveillance and instruments like the Low-Cost Imaging Terminal Seeker (LCITS), and a turn to non-petroleum fuels. The costs associated with these requisite weapons and equipment are staggering.

    Smart technologies/equipment/weapons – items usually associated with the obligatory “precision” characteristic, non-lethal element, or “green energy” dimension cost a fortune. By contrast, non-state actors (NSAs) are not beholden to similar budgetary cutbacks, environmental considerations, or human rights and treaty compulsion. Attack and response costs for NSAs (typically insurgents and terrorists, or generally militant extremists) are grossly disparate in cost. Thus, this kind of high tech warfare is becoming increasingly economically unviable for high-tech states and organizations like the United States and theNorth Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

    It is necessary for states to consider the dissonance between low-tech attacks and high-tech defensive responses. As it stands now, high-tech states, due to their military preferences and strongly embedded high tech warfare cultures, have not really considered the options for low-tech response. War, or just simple security for that matter, has been reconfigured by states, with their advanced and technological weaponry, to become high-cost. In contrast to asymmetric enemies with much cheaper systems, this raises the question: What response options are available to countries like the United States if NSAs pursue cost-effective approaches to combat and the West. What are the potential ramifications of lost-tech/low-cost warfare against high-tech/high-cost security/defensive measures of states? It is unlikely that the United States can sustain such a war. U.S. military action against the Islamic State (IS) costs American taxpayers well over $600 thousand per hourThe cost of war in Afghanistan by the latter half of 2016 stood at $750 billion and $819 billion for combat missions in Iraq that could alternatively be funneled toward other more critical military and nonmilitary (i.e., statebuilding) projects.

    The costs of U.S. military action, either offensive or defensive, stand at around $1.5 million for just one medium to long-range subsonic cruise missile like the Tomahawk. A single air-to-ground (AGM-114) Hellfire means an injurious cost of some $115 thousand. The shoulder-rocket named the Javelin costs some $150 thousand each. The APKWS II is about $28 thousand per unit. Our departure from bombs and embrace of precision-guided munitions (PGMs) and smart weapons generally has come without clear and constant consideration for the fact that precision has its costs. “Cheap” laser-guided weapons can have a price tag of up to $250 thousand attached to them.

    One glaring flaw inherent in these weapons is their lack of deterrence. If they are to be used for security, there ought to be a purpose in their non-use; however, their non-use fails to deter the principle threats in a not-so-state-centric international realm.

    We are confronting a similar friction observed after decades of spending trillions of dollars on nuclear weapons of all sorts, the nuclear-powered aircraft, anuclear-powered cruise missile (PLUTO), as well as a nuclear torpedo called ASTOR (otherwise referred to as “underwater insanity”) designed to be used against submarines. In the latter, the use of such a torpedo would have meant the destruction of the submarine that launched it as well as the target.

    The idea of war is to cause destruction or damage to the enemy with the least possible damage to oneself, if any at all. That logic fails us in the case of ASTOR and serves as a metaphor for security and defense logic today in considering the weapons being designed and developed to guard against and pursue rebels like those who launched their rickety old rockets at a billion-dollar U.S. warship, which in-turn spent, a disproportionate sum to prevent that attack.

    We should be alarmed at the potential reduction in the human costs of war if we are moving toward increasingly robotic warfare, and with this, the possibility of warfare becoming entirely economic.

    Military leaders have an amazing ability to develop strategy but if they fail to take into account the economic costs, their strategies could become inherently unviable and unsustainable. To what extent is society willing to put up with wars that are foremost robotic and primarily economic?

    This could be the case in asymmetry as well as in conflicts between high tech actors. Combat – particularly robotic combat – could become ultimately a purely economic affair in which the states that have the economic resources to sustain a longer robotic warfare campaign win. In this, the inhuman element of future combat would not only release the concept of human casualties, but likewise begin sketching a different template for warfare, perhaps even cause a paradigm shift in warfare, from which point warfare could be solely an economic affair. This could in a sense create an incentive for actors to try to fight wars on the cheap – particularly against actors bound by their high-tech warfare capabilities.

    We often think of our military capabilities as one that allow us to dominate the battlefield, to achieve full spectrum dominance and enemy/threat enclosure. Turning to “unmanned” systems, or (small) drones, such technology could start a new era of warfare in which actors with lesser-economic possibilities, not just capabilities, can seize upon the opportunity to expand the space of the battlefield to their benefit, namely through the use of simple drones, loaded with explosives. In this, actors would exploit different avenues or new ways (for them) of attacking their enemy.

    This sort of scenario can be played-out along the lines of IS sending bomb-loaded drones against the Kurdish Peshmerga, or a terrorist trying to fly small-scale drones into the U.S. Capitol. It is pertinent to consider how this kind of approach to warfare and technology will evolve.

    For the first time, technology actually seems to favor those with lesser possibilities but perversely presents more opportunity. Generally, technology has favored the actors who have the money to pursue the research and defense (R&D) side of warfare and warfighting, but now actors who do not have it can benefit in due course. Have we been too unmindful of how warfare has become foremost economic once again? Now actors with limited means actually possess the means to act beyond their material capabilities and limits and conduct strikes beyond their (limited) horizon.

    This has hit the U.S. military at a relatively late point in the War on Terror and in context of the radically changing nature of the modern military landscape/character of war. But in a way we are still moving full-tilt down a path where we develop the means to attack ants using elephant guns. We tend to adhere to the idea of over-kill in a way that goes relatively unnoticed on our own side. During the Second World War, we sought to defeat the enemies of democracy and our self-styled freedom by dumping thousands of tons of bombs on Germany’s Kassel, Hamburg, Dresden, and Cologne, and Japan’s, Kagoshima, Tokushima, Fukuyama, Tokyo, and Yokohama (among many others.)

    Today, we overkill the enemy using expensive technology and weapons that we mistakenly perceive to be produced at bargain prices. Comparing what the United States spends on defending against extant threats to what terrorists and insurgents spend presents a shrill contrast. It is as effortless as taking a stroll to a gun market. The going price for an American-made M-16 is $200, $400 for a Chinese- or Russian-made AK-47, and $150 for a rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) at a gun market in Somalia. Obtaining the requisite small arms necessary to cause widespread panic and casualties on and off the battlefield is like sifting through used clothing at a flea market – no permission, no identification, no papers, no checks required; you just choose your weapon, pay, and be on your way to attack whomever you like. A standard suicide bomber belt costs just $150.

    Perceptions of contemporary security and defense have to align with the costs associated with rebel attacks, the current economic climate, and the idea that abstaining from the purchase of a single $1-1.5 million cruise missile would enable the United States and others to purchase less-technologically sophisticated alternatives capable of achieving near-similar ends.

    The debate about national security and military effectiveness should not be solely conducted within the existent framework. Economic perception and reality must be discussed too.

    *  *  *

    Tobias Burgers is a Doctoral Candidate at the Otto-Suhr-Institute (Free University of Berlin) where he researches the rise and use of cyber, robotic systems in security relations, and the future of military conflict. Scott Nicholas Romaniuk is a PhD Candidate in International Studies (University of Trento). His research focuses on asymmetric warfare, counterterrorism, international security, and the use of force

  • The Difference Between GAAP And Non-GAAP Q3 Earnings For The Dow Jones Was 25%

    As of today, 95% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings for Q3 2016. 72% of the companies have reported earnings above the mean estimate and 55%of S&P 500 companies have reported sales above the mean estimate. More importantly, however, according to FactSet in Q3 the earnings recession officially ended after five consecutive quarters of EPS declines: for Q3 2016, the blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 3.0%. The third quarter marks the first time the index has seen year-over-year growth in earnings since Q1 2015 (0.5%).

    That’s the official version. The unofficial one is that of this 3% increase in EPS, half comes from buybacks, or a reduction in the number of shares outstanding, which according to Deutsche Bank contributed 1.6% to earnings growth in the third quarter.  As the chart below shows, this has been a recurring theme for the S&P, where buybacks have “added” between 1% and 2% to EPS “growth” every quarter going back at least to the start of 2012.

    And then there was the very acute distinction between GAAP and non-GAAP, one of our favorite topics which we have covered going as far back as 2010, and more recently in February of this year.

    In another report by FactSet, we find that as of today, all of the companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average have reported EPS for Q3 2016. Factset then asks three questions:

    • What percentage of these companies reported non-GAAP EPS for Q3 2016?
    • What was the average difference and median difference between non-GAAP EPS and GAAP EPS for companies in the DJIA for Q3 2016?
    • How did these differences compare to last year?

    For Q3 2016, 21 of the 30 companies in the DJIA (or 70%) reported non-GAAP EPS in addition to GAAP EPS for the third quarter. Of these 21 companies, 16 reported non-GAAP EPS that was higher than GAAP EPS.

    The average difference between non-GAAP EPS and GAAP EPS for all 21 companies was 181.1%, while the median difference between non-GAAP EPS and GAAP EPS for all 21 companies was 10.4%.

    The average difference between non-GAAP EPS and GAAP EPS for the DJIA was unusually large because of DuPont. For Q3 2016, DuPont reported non-GAAP EPS of $0.34 and reported GAAP EPS of $0.01. Thus, the percentage difference between non-GAAP EPS and GAAP EPS for DuPont for Q3 was 3300%. Excluding DuPont, the average difference between non-GAAP EPS and GAAP EPS for the remaining 20 DJIA companies was 24.7%.

    How does this compare to the third quarter in 2015? Back in Q3 2015, 19 of the 30 companies in the DJIA (or 63%) reported non-GAAP EPS in addition to GAAP EPS for the quarter. Of these 19 companies, 16 reported non-GAAP EPS that was higher than GAAP EPS. The average difference between non-GAAP EPS and GAAP EPS for all 19 companies was 17.1%.

    This means that the GAAP to Non-GAAP difference (excluding outliers), continues to grow, or as FactSet puts it, the average difference between non-GAAP EPS and GAAP EPS for the Dow 30 was larger in Q3 2016 relative to Q3 2015. However, the median difference between non-GAAP EPS and GAAP EPS for the Dow 30 in Q3 2016 was nearly equal to the median difference in Q3 2015. While more DJIA companies reported non-GAAP EPS in Q3 2016 (21) compared to Q3 2015 (19), the same number of DJIA companies (16) reported non-GAAP EPS that exceeded GAAP EPS in both quarters.

    * * *

    Putting all this together, the distinction for year-over-year earnings growth for GAAP vs non-GAAP Dow Jones earnings is simple: non-GAAP Dow Jones earnings rose 10.8%, while GAAP EPS declined 3.7%:

    Companies in the DJIA reported higher average and median year-over-year growth in non-GAAP EPS compared to GAAP EPS for Q3 2016. For the 21 companies in the DJIA that reported non-GAAP EPS for Q3 2016, the average non-GAAP EPS growth rate was 10.8%, while the median non-GAAP EPS growth rate was 5.1%. For these same 21 companies, the average GAAP EPS growth rate for Q3 2016 was -3.7%, while the median GAAP EPS growth rate for Q3 2016 was -1.2%.

    There’s more.

    As Deutsche Bank writes in a note on Friday afternoon, “be mindful of the gap between GAAP and non-GAAP EPS and net margins

    The German bank explains that over the past two years, the wider than usual spread between GAAP and non GAAP is from asset write-downs at Energy and Materials companies. Outside those sectors, the spread at ~87% excluding huge discontinued operations and one-time gains at Health Care, modestly below normal. The overall spread bottomed at 68% in 4Q15 and subsequently improved to ~81% in the past two quarters and ~84% QTD.

    In addition to write-downs, stock option expense (SOE) is often excluded by new Tech, bio Tech and some tech oriented consumer stocks. 42 S&P companies exclude SOE from their non-GAAP EPS, and that SOE would have had $1.07/sh impact to S&P EPS. Also, when M&A activity is strong there are often deal and integrations costs that are excluded. This is mostly at Tech and Health Care. Pension charges are sometimes excluded. This was a big item in 4Q14 and will likely be so again in 4Q16.

    Some additional details from DB:

    The chart below shows a long-term chart showing the divergence between the S&P500’s LTM EPS on a GAAP vs non-GAAP basis…

    … and finally, here is the implied LTM P/E multiple if using Friday’s S&P closing price: it amounts to 18.7x for non-GAAP earnings, and 23.4x for GAAP.

  • Visualizing Black Friday's Surge In US Consumer Debt

    It's that time of year again… when Americans load up on debt to buy stuff they don't need with money they don't have because Kim Kardashian told them to…

    Next week, Black Friday and Cyber Monday will kick off the start to the U.S. holiday shopping season, during which consumers are expected to spend a total of $655.8 billion this year.

    With the average bill coming in at $938.50 for holiday spending, where are people finding the extra cash?

    Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins looked back at the last five years of Equifax data to see how consumer debt correlates to holiday purchases.

    Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

     

    THERE’S CREDIT IN STORE

    One way consumers take advantage of Black Friday deals is through the issuance of store credit. Specifically, Black Friday traditionally sees a noteworthy surge in signups to private label cards – the kind redeemed at stores like Macy’s.

    Each year, roughly half a million Americans are signing up for new accounts on Black Friday:

    Furniture and department stores are among the biggest providers of this type of credit to consumers. Here are the five-year averages by industry for the months of November and December:

     

    CHARGE IT, PLEASE

    This bump in activity doesn’t stop with new signups for store credit. The average balances on store cards and credit cards both jump noticeably in the months following the holiday season:

    Every year is different, but the data always follows the same trend.

    Stocking up on Black Friday deals is not cheap, and extra dollars spent eventually make their way onto the credit card statement with the cost of interest added on.

  • Obama Admits He "Can't Pardon" Snowden Before A Trial – Sorry, Hillary

    After everyone from Jesse Jackson, to the terrified mainstream media to prominent Congressional Democrats have called upon Obama to issue a blanket pardon for Hillary Clinton, he finally admitted that it’s not possible to pardon someone who hasn’t yet stood trial for a crime.  And while Obama was referencing a potential pardon of Edward Snowden with his comments, one could assume that the law should be applied the same way for all U.S. citizens.

    I can’t pardon somebody who hasn’t gone before a court and presented themselves, so that’s not something that I would comment on at this point. I think that Mr. Snowden raised some legitimate concerns. How he did it was something that did not follow the procedures and practices of our intelligence community. If everybody took the approach that I make my own decisions about these issues, then it would be very hard to have an organized government or any kind of national security system.

    In his last international interview with ARD and DER SPIEGEL in Germany, Obama went on to highlight the fine line between protecting the privacy of citizens and gathering intelligence needed to protect the American homeland against potential terrorist attacks.  Ironically, Obama didn’t mention the potential pitfalls associated with allowing a massive influx of immigrants from nations known to harbor terrorists without the ability to vet those immigrants.

    At the point at which Mr. Snowden wants to present himself before the legal authorities and make his arguments or have his lawyers make his arguments, then I think those issues come into play. Until that time, what I’ve tried to suggest — both to the American people, but also to the world — is that we do have to balance this issue of privacy and security. Those who pretend that there’s no balance that has to be struck and think we can take a 100-percent absolutist approach to protecting privacy don’t recognize that governments are going to be under an enormous burden to prevent the kinds of terrorist acts that not only harm individuals, but also can distort our society and our politics in very dangerous ways.

     

    And those who think that security is the only thing and don’t care about privacy also have it wrong.

     

    My experience is that our intelligence officials try to do the right thing, but even with good intentions, sometimes they make mistakes. Sometimes they can be overzealous. Our lives are now in a telephone, all our data, all our finances, all our personal information, and so it’s proper that we have some constraints on that. But it’s not going to be 100 percent. If it is 100 percent, then we’re not going to be able to protect ourselves and our societies from some people who are trying to hurt us.

     

    Commenting on the election, Obama refused to acknowledge that his failed policies helped facilitate Trump’s victory, even though skyrocketing Obamacare premiums almost certainly played a role, and instead referenced the typical democrat narrative that racist white folks who were fearful of the “changing face of the American population” were to blame.

    I think what is true is that there’s been an underlying division in the United States. Some of it has to do with the fact that economic growth and recovery tends to be stronger in the cities and in urban areas. In some rural areas, particularly those that were reliant on manufacturing, there has been weaker growth, stagnation, people feeling as if their children won’t do as well as they will.

     

    There are cultural, social and demographic issues that came into play. They’re not that different from some of the issues that Europe faces with immigration, the changing face of the American population. I think some reacted there, and Trump was able to tap into some of those anxieties.

     

    American politics is always somewhat fluid. In this age of social media, it means that voters can swing back and forth. I mean, there were probably millions of voters who voted for me and supported me and this time also voted for Donald Trump, and it just indicates that some of this is less ideological and more just an impulse towards some sort of change.

    One of the more amusing segments of the interview came when Obama, perhaps one of the most divisive presidents in American history, decided to lecture president-elect Trump on his “divisive” and “controversial rhetoric.”

    And the question now, going forward, is whether the president-elect is able to move on those elements of his agenda that I think can garner broad support, like rebuilding our infrastructure. And if he can lessen some of the more controversial rhetoric that could divide the country more. That’s going to be the test for him in the years to come.

    We just have to ask, would comments like the one below by Obama be considered “divisive” and/or “controversial?”

    September 2014 Comments at the Congressional Black Caucus Awards Dinner – “Too many young men of color feel targeted by law enforcement, guilty of walking while black, or driving while black, judged by stereotypes that fuel fear and resentment and hopelessness. We know that, statistically, in everything from enforcing drug policy to applying the death penalty to pulling people over, there are significant racial disparities.

    If that wasn’t enough, Obama also attempted to delegitimize Trump’s election by pointing out that only 27% of the American population voted for him.  Yes, and Obama’s victory in 2012 with 28.6% of the population was WAY more decisive…great point.

    The problem, though, is that young people are less likely to vote than older people. What results is a situation in which sometimes the elections don’t fully reflect the views of the American population. Essentially, the president-elect was supported by about 27 percent of the American population. One of our challenges, historically, is that we have very low voting rates, even during presidential elections.

    Finally, when asked about the very real possibility that Trump will dismantle key components of his legacy, Obama reminded us all of the time that he saved the entire world from financial ruin back in 2009. 

    First and foremost, it’s important to remember that, from my perspective at least, my most important legacy was making sure that the world didn’t go into a Great Depression. Keep in mind that, when I came in, we had had a crisis that was the worst we’ve seen since the 1930s, and working with people like Chancellor Merkel, working with the G-20 and other institutions internationally, we were able to stabilize the financial system, stabilize the US economy and return to growth.

    We guess that’s true if you ignore the inconvenient fact that loose monetary policies implemented by the Fed single-highhandedly caused the asset bubbles around the world that Obama points to as signs of a “recovery.”  Guess we should ignore these charts: 

    Obama Recovery

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Today’s News 19th November 2016

  • Algorithmic Trading is the Investment of the Future

    From Fortress Capital:

    Let’s face it – investing is difficult!  Gone are the days of saving for retirement.  The average savings account in the USA pays less than 1%.  Fortunately for most investors the stock market has been going up and up, but it’s going to correct (it always does).  But it hasn’t been a good ride for all investors.  Many retirees now living off their retirements are heavy into fixed income investments like annuities that pay a fixed monthly amount based on interest rates, which are at historic lows.  Interest rates are so low, when these investors bought annuities, they are getting up to 90% less than what they expected.  Quantitative Easing is killing retirees’ portfolios.

    So what is the solution?  Along with the bad comes good – like with any technology.  Modern hospital techniques prolong life and save lives, but also with new medical technology comes many dangers.  This is also true in financial services.  For example, it’s now possible to trade and invest in algorithmic trading products called sometimes ‘robots’ which do investing for you.  Just like human managers, all robots are different.  Some are extremely risky, some are extremely conservative.  With the advent of algorithmic trading, investors should be prepared to do due diligence on this new asset class, and be familiar with some of what such an investment entails.

    Generally, robots are offered to investors as managed accounts or a fund product, such as a hedge fund, commodity pool, or structured product.  Much of the due diligence is done by the managers of the robot and explained in a document such as a prospectus, disclosure document, or other offering memorandum.  Be sure to work only with licensed managers!  

    Of course, there’s another option – which is to buy a robot and load it onto your own account, this is called ‘self-managed’ but in this case be prepared to spend a lot of time learning how to do it.  If you are so inclined, many managers encourage this and will even help support live account holders through this process.  For example, you can take Fortress Capital’s Introduction to Foreign Exchange course, providing the basics of FX, algorithmic investing, mathematics, computers, and other relevant info.eur_electionvol

    There’s other benefits to algorithmic investing.  The US election produced huge volatility which negatively impacted stock investments and many others.  Take a look at a EUR/USD hourly chart, around the time of the US election (right).

    Now take a look at the results from that night from Magic FX, one of Fortress Capital’s algorithmic managed accounts for QEP/ECP:

    electionvolatility

    That is not to say that, algorithms are a panacea.  But, they do provide a new type of risk profile, a new type of opportunity for investors, and are guaranteed to change the landscape of investing forever.

    To learn more about Managed Forex Investing, checkout Splitting Pennies – Understanding Forex Book for only $6.11 on Amazon.  If you’d like to get started, see Fortress Capital’s flagship program Global Alpha.

  • 5 Times When The Mainstream Media "Created Fake News"… And People Died As A Result

    As SHTFPLan.com's Mac Slavo notes…

    While the powers that be are determining the fate of alternative media voices that are now branded under the dubious label “fake news” and blacked out from online search results, it is worth keeping in mind all the disinformation and downright lies that have been perpetrated by the corporate news media – typically hand in hand with a political agenda.

     

    Whether it is lies that took us to war, or the perception that a deadly attack was carried out by a certain group, the impressions they create play a significant role in determining world events. Often times, that role is one of deception, ensnaring people into supporting deadly and costly actions – in spite of the true facts.

     

    These misleaders are the fake news, and the fake news problem has helped to ruin this country.

    5 Times Corporate Media Got Caught Publishing Fake News Causing the Death & Suffering of Millions

    Authored by Claire Bernish and originally published at The Free Thought Project.

    A now-notorious list of ostensibly “fake” news sites — created by a liberal professor, seemingly out of thin air — spread like wildfire online in the past two days and was eagerly reprinted by corporate media presstitutes hoping to vindicate their own failed reporting on the 2016 election.

    But branding perfectly legitimate outlets with the same scarlet letter as those devoid of integrity deemed the professor’s list a spurious attempt to defame alternative and independent media — anyone dissenting from the left’s mainstream narrative — as a whole.

    This is, in no uncertain terms, a hit list — or, at least, a laughable attempt — and it fits conveniently into the establishment’s burgeoning war on independent media disguised as a battle against fake news.

    When corporate media outlets from the Independent and Business Insider, to the Los Angeles Times and NYMag scrambled over one another to reprint this irresponsibly contrived hit list, they proved yet again a lack of journalistic integrity — the same issue that originally caused regular subscribers to abandon them in the first place.

    Indeed, in this otherwise unknown professor’s foray into the world of journalism, a glaring mistake was made — the only mainstream outlets making the list were those who had heralded Bernie Sanders as the best candidate for the White House.

    Such an obvious attempt to control thought could only be conjured in a totalitarian regime.

    In fact, failing to place the exact corporate media organizations on the list, who for nearly a year praised fealty only to Hillary Clinton — and for decades have foisted on the public countless mendacious whoppers — constitutes a comedic lack of honesty. So, to bring that irony front and center, it’s imperative to examine some mainstream lies — most of which had appalling consequences — including the deaths of hundreds of thousands of innocent people in the United States and around the world.

    1. George W. Bush’s Weapons of Mass Destruction

    President George W. Bush decided to unleash the full force of the U.S. military upon the world in a new policy of war writ large disguised as a war on terrorism following the attacks of September 11, 2001. First arbitrarily designating Afghanistan as its primary victim due to the supposed identities of the attackers, Bush then chose Iraq to feel the wrath, and set out to invade the country following dubious claims Saddam Hussein harbored destructive chemical and biological weapons and was actively seeking far stronger munitions.

    “Intelligence gathered by this and other governments leaves no doubt that the Iraq regime continues to possess and conceal some of the most lethal weapons ever devised,” the president asserted in a public address on March 17, 2003.“This regime has already used weapons of mass destruction against Iraq’s neighbors and against Iraq’s people.”

    Bush’s assertions were questioned by not only human rights experts, but by U.N. weapons inspectors and countless others — so shortly after the U.S. invaded the sovereign nation, the New York Times took up the slack to fill in the appropriatecasus belli.

    Judith Miller notoriously reported on a source she described only as an Iraqi scientist who had seen several extensive caches of such weapons stored somewhere in the country. American weapons experts, she claimed, “said the scientist told them that President Saddam Hussein’s government had destroyed some stockpiles of deadly agents as early as the mid-1990’s, transferred others to Syria, and had recently focused its efforts instead on research and development projects that are virtually impervious to detection by international inspectors, and even American forces on the ground combing through Iraq’s giant weapons plants.”

    In hindsight, Miller’s problematic report turned out to be horrendously flawed, and the Times spent months attempting tobacktrack, but the damage — fomenting widescale public support for a war no one wanted the military to undertake — had been done. Years later in 2014, the Times — after much internal strife — again took up Miller’s case, in a series reportingcatastrophic injuries U.S. military personnel suffered in handling chemical weapons in Iraq. But that report, and theparroting of it by multiple other mainstream mainstays, failed to fully disclose Hussein had been oblivious to the stockpiles presence — something the CIA had clearly stated in a report.

    2. Gulf of Tonkin Incident

    Often, the American mainstream media becomes a de facto government employee, taking the claims of U.S. officials and reporting them as proven fact — and nothing exemplifies this penchant better than reporting on the Gulf of Tonkin incident — perhaps one of most flagrant lies ever dreamed up as a justification for war.

    On August 5, 1964, the New York Times reported “President Johnson has ordered retaliatory action against gunboats and ‘certain supporting facilities in North Vietnam’ after renewed attacks against American destroyers in the Gulf of Tonkin.”Additional outlets, such as the Washington Post, echoed this claim.

    But it wasn’t true. At all. In fact, the Gulf of Tonkin incident, as it became known, turned out to be a fictitious creation courtesy of the government to escalate war in Vietnam — leading to the deaths of tens of thousands of U.S. troops and millions of Vietnamese, fomenting the largest anti-war movement in American history, and tarnishing the reputation of a nation once considered at least somewhat noble in the eyes of the world.

    In 2010, more than 1,100 transcripts from the Vietnam era were released, proving Congress and officials raised serious doubts about the information fed to them by the Pentagon and White House. But while this internal grumbling took place, mainstream media dutifully reported official statements as if the veracity of the information couldn’t be disputed.

    Tom Wells, author of the exhaustive exposé “The War Within: America’s Battle Over Vietnam,” explained the media egregiously erred in “almost exclusive reliance on U.S. government officials as sources of information” and“reluctance to question official pronouncements on ‘national security issues.’”

    If due diligence had been performed, and reporters had raised appropriate doubts about the Gulf of Tonkin false flag, it’s arguable whether support for the contentious war would have lasted as long as it did.

    3. Suppression of brutality perpetrated in Bahrain during the Arab Spring

    CNN sent reporter Amber Lyon and a crew to U.S. ally Bahrain for a documentary about technology’s role in the 2011 people’s uprising known as the Arab Spring, ultimately titled “iRevolution: Online Warriors of the Arab Spring” — but what they encountered instead bore the hallmarks of a repressive and violent regime, and its attempt to filter and censor the truth. Lyon and the other CNN reporters went to great lengths to speak with sources participating in the massive uprising — one the Bahraini government wished to quash at all costs.

    “By the time the CNN crew arrived,” the Guardian reported, “many of the sources who had agreed to speak to them were either in hiding or had disappeared. Regime opponents whom they interviewed suffered recriminations, as did ordinary citizens who worked with them as fixers. Leading human rights activist Nabeel Rajab was charged with crimes shortly after speaking to the CNN team. A doctor who gave the crew a tour of his village and arranged meetings with government opponents, Saeed Ayyad, had his house burned to the ground shortly after. Their local fixer was fired ten days after working with them.”

    Even the CNN crew experienced the wrath of the regime, upon showing up to interview one source, the Guardiancontinued, “‘20 heavily-armed men’, whose faces were ‘covered with black ski masks’, ‘jumped from military vehicles’, and then ‘pointed machine guns at’ the journalists, forcing them to the ground. The regime’s security forces seized their cameras and deleted their photos and video footage, and then detained and interrogated them for the next six hours.”

    After returning to the U.S., Lyon felt it her duty to expose the abuse being perpetrated by the government of an ally nation — but CNN International didn’t agree. CNN U.S. eventually aired the one-hour documentary. Once. CNN Internationalnever did — worse, the organization gave Lyon the cold shoulder, ignoring her repeated requests to return to Bahrain, which would have put CNN ahead of the game in reporting government brutality. Its failure to air the documentary and refusal to provide justification for doing so angered seasoned CNN and other mainstream established journalists across the board.

    Lyon met with CNN International president Tony Maddox twice — he first promised to investigate why the documentary wasn’t aired, and then turned against her, warning the journalist not to discuss the matter publicly. Bahraini officials contacted CNN International repeatedly complaining about Lyon’s continued reporting on what she’d witnessed. Intimidation continued until she was eventually laid off, putatively for an unrelated matter.

    Attempting to save face, CNN International rebuffed the Guardian’s account and interview with Lyon — but the effort was an impotent justification for the obvious failure of integrity.

    But threats for Lyon to remain silent followed her off the job, and when she persisted in exposing the Bahraini regime, as well as the suppression by CNN, the outlet sent a stern warning to halt. Lyon, however, said she had never signed a non-disclosure agreement and would not be pressured into their lies — ultimately walking away reputation in hand — something that could not be said for CNN.

    4. That time Fox News hired a CIA operative who wasn’t a CIA operative

    Wayne Shelby Simmons made guest appearances on Fox News as a security expert with insider expertise from his work as a CIA operative — for over a decade. However, Simmons had never been employed by the agency — in fact, the imposter’s lies eventually caught up with him and he was arrested and sentenced to 33 months in prison.

    “Instead of verifying whether Simmons had actually worked for the CIA, Fox News and the Agency allowed him to make fools out of Bill O’Reilly, Sean Hannity, Andrew Napolitano, Neil Cavuto, and everyone at Fox & Friendsfor over the last twelve years. After building a false reputation as a CIA agent on Fox News, Simmons obtained an interim security clearance when an unnamed government contractor hired him in 2008. Simmons also falsely claimed on national security forms that his prior arrests and criminal convictions were directly related to his supposed intelligence work for the CIA, and that he had previously held a top secret security clearance from 1973 to 2000,” The Free Thought Project’s Andrew Emett explained.

    In other words, mainstream Fox News didn’t bother with journalism at all — proffering fake expertise as the real deal — because the outlet failed the most basic of tasks any hourly wage employer would perform.

    Simmons’ commentaries weren’t harmless stabs in the dark, either — relentlessly parroting baseless Islamophobic rhetoric to drum up support for the government’s insidious war on terror likely poisoned the minds of thousands of viewers, furthering the already divisive atmosphere in the U.S.

    5. Vapid anti-marijuana propaganda and the furtherance of the war on drugs

    According to the Drug Policy Alliance, over $51 billion is spent fighting the war on drugs in the United States — each year. In 2015, a striking 38.6 percent of all arrests for drug possession were for cannabis — 643,121 people were arrested for marijuana-related offenses.

    What those figures don’t show are the millions of lives ruined by criminal conviction for the government’s unjustifiable quest to eradicate, demonize, and vilify this beneficial plant. It would be an impossible task to tally the number of families whose homes have been destroyed by SWAT teams searching for marijuana — whether or not police bothered to verify anaddress. An untold number of others have been slain by police for the same reason.

    But worst of all, the mainstream media propagates nonsensical, false propaganda about cannabis to convince the gullible and ignorant among us to equate it with heroin, cocaine, and other ‘illicit’ substances. And while a majority of the populace has seen through such lies, some outlets have obstinately continued the drug war — seemingly of their own volition.

    One stunning example occurred in March last year, when Dr. David Samadi made a guest appearance on Fox News to fearmonger the horrors of marijuana and scare the bejeezus out of the viewing audience.

    “It actually causes heart attacks. It increases your heart rate. And on and on,” Samadi claimed, fecklessly distorting statistics. “We’re seeing in Colorado that we had 13 kids that came to the emergency [room] and ended up in the ICU as a result of overdose from marijuana. Now we have crack babies coming in because pregnant women are smoking this whole marijuana business.”

    Fortunately, the Internet has provided the public with alternatives to these corporate media lies — and as of two years ago, despite these and other claims about pot being a dangerous substance, Pew Research Center found fully 69 percent of the population felt alcohol was more harmful than cannabis.

    * * *

    While this list presents only a few of the bigger lies of the corporate press, there are innumerable examples of its proud history of actual fake news. Keep these in mind when the mainstream presstitutes rush to reprint a hit list targeting journalists and outlets whose narratives counter the establishment. Indeed, it would be the corporate media — with its vast captive audience — who most deserves to be listed as propagators of lies.

  • San Fran Home Sales Crash To Lowest Level Since 2008 As Pricing Reset Gets Underway

    We have frequently written over the past couple of quarters about the bubbly San Francisco housing market that looks set for another epic reversal as home prices have reached staggering new highs just as employment levels seem to be rolling over.  With home prices now implying that only 10-20% of residents can afford the “median” priced home, it’s certainly not difficult to understand why demand may be waning.     

    San Fran Housing

     

    According to HousingWire and a new report from PropertyRadar, home sales in the Bay Area are finally starting to rollover with Q3 YTD volumes down 10.3% YoY, reflecting the fewest number of homes sold over that same time period since 2008.  Perhaps even more staggering is that distressed property sales fell 35.7% YoY so far in 2016, to the lowest level since 2001, as “low-priced” inventory dried up and buyers have found it financially impossible to move up to higher price tiers.

    Conversely, non-distressed property sales fell 7.1% on a year-over-year basis. But it should be noted that as a percentage of total sales, distressed property sales accounted for only 7.9% of total sales, compared to 11.1% in 2015 and a high of 56.3% in 2009.

     

    “The 35.7% decline in distressed property sales drove the overall decline in Bay Area sales to its lowest level since 2001,” said Madeline Schnapp, director of Economic Research for PropertyRadar.

     

    “For several years now, the affordability of distressed properties contributed significantly to overall sales,” Schnapp added. “Distressed property inventory has declined to the point it’s now a drag on overall sales. Bay Area sales will likely remain relatively flat until new, attractively priced, inventory arrives on the scene.”

    According to PropertyRadar’s data, the number of homes sold priced from $0 to $500,000 fell by nearly 27% from 2015 to 2016. Homes priced from $500,000 to $750,000 fell by just shy of 9%.

     

    Homes priced from $750,000 to $1 million fell by just 3.6%, while homes priced above $1 million actually rose, albeit by only 0.4%.

     

    “The outsized decline in distressed property sales combined with the rapid increase in prices and the lack of buyers that qualify for higher priced homes is reflected in the 26.7% decline in the sales of lower priced homes,” Schnapp said. “Income growth in the Bay Area has not kept up with rapidly rising home prices shutting out a significant percentage of would-be buyers.”

    Of course, none of this should be terribly surprising in light of the fact that median San Francisco home prices have surged 86% over the past 4 years to a mere $1.4mm. 

    San Fran Housing

     

    As Paragon Real Estate points out, the only question left to answer now isn’t whether San Fran real estate will crash, but rather just how deep the crash will be.

    San Fran Housing

  • European Union Orders British Press Not To Report when Terrorists Are Muslims

    Submitted by Yves Manou via The Gatestone Institute,

    • This is the moment where hate speech laws become a greater threat to democracy and freedom of speech than hate speech itself.
    • In France, Muslim terrorists are never Muslim terrorists, but "lunatics," "maniacs" and "youths".
    • To attack freedom of the press and freedom of speech is not anti-hate speech; it is submission.
    • By following these recommendations, the British government would place Muslim organizations in a kind of monopoly position: they would become the only source of information about themselves. It is the perfect totalitarian information order.
    • Created to guard against the kind of xenophobic and anti-Semitic propaganda that gave rise to the Holocaust, national hate speech laws have increasingly been invoked to criminalize speech that is merely deemed insulting to one's race, ethnicity, religion, or nationality.
    • It is disturbing to wonder how long the EU will strongly engage its experts and influence to cut through existing legal obstacles, in a quest to criminalize any type of criticism of Islam, and to submit to the values of jihad.

    According the European Commission against Racism and Intolerance (ECRI) — part of the Council of Europe — the British press is to blame for increasing hate speech and racist violence. On October 4, 2016, the ECRI released a report dedicated only to Britain. The report said:

    some traditional media, particularly tabloids… are responsible for most of the offensive, discriminatory and provocative terminology. The Sun, for instance, published an article in April 2015 entitled "Rescue boats? I'd use gunships to stop migrants", in which the columnist likened migrants to "cockroaches"…

     

    The Sun newspaper has also published inflammatory anti-Muslim headlines, such as its front page of 23 November 2015 which read "1 in 5 Brit Muslims' sympathy for jihadis", along with a picture of a masked terrorist wielding a knife…

    The ECRI report establishes a direct causal link between some tough headlines in British tabloids and the security of the Muslims in the UK. In other words, the British press is allegedly inciting readers to commit "Islamophobic" acts against Muslims.

    ECRI considers that, in light of the fact that Muslims are increasingly under the spotlight as a result of recent ISIS-related terrorist acts around the world, fueling prejudice against Muslims shows a reckless disregard, not only for the dignity of the great majority of Muslims in the United Kingdom, but also for their safety.

    ECRI is basing its report on a recent study from Matthew Feldman, Professor at Teesside University. This study compiled anti-Muslim incidents before and after terrorist's attacks.

    In the seven days prior to the Charlie Hebdo massacre in Paris, where 12 people were killed, there were 12 reported (anti Muslim) incidents, but in the seven days following, there were 45. This pattern was similar in relation to the terror attacks in Sydney, in December and Copenhagen, in February.

    So, according to the ECRI and scholars of Teesside University, when Muslim jihadists murder people and the press reports that killers are Muslims, the press, and not Islamists, is encouraging "Islamophobic incidents" in Britain. According to ECRI Chair Christian Ahlund, "It is no coincidence that racist violence is on the rise in the UK at the same time as we see worrying examples of intolerance and hate speech in the newspapers, online and even among politicians."

    For the ECRI, the biggest problem is:

    "… where the media stress the Muslim background of perpetrators of terrorist acts, and devote significant coverage to it, the violent backlash against Muslims is likely to be greater than in cases where the perpetrators' motivation is downplayed or rejected in favour of alternative explanations."

    The report does not explain what could be "alternative explanations." But we can find examples in French press: when a Muslim attacks a soldier and tries to take his gun, he is not an Islamist terrorist, but a "lunatic." Such attacks by "lunatics" are very common in France.

    The French press downplays attacks by deciding not to name Muslim perpetrators: incriminating a "Mohamed" could, in the minds of French journalists, incite retaliations against Muslims. In another example, Muslim gangs cannot be connected to any form of violence, so they become "youths." In France, Muslim terrorists are never Muslim terrorists, but "lunatics", "maniacs" and "youths."

    But that is France. In Britain, tabloids are not so polite, and they understand perfectly the intentions of the ECRI report: to ban the word "Muslim" when it is associated with "violence or terrorism."

    The ECRI Report Marks a U-Turn in Free Speech

    This is the moment where hate speech laws become a greater threat to democracy and freedom of speech than the hate speech itself. Prohibiting journalists from naming "Islamic terrorism," and encouraging them to hide the association of Muslims with terrorism, is an attempt to misrepresent the truth in the same way the former Soviet Union censored the truth. Taking advantage of some real racist articles in tabloids — not many, because not many are quoted in the report — to attack freedom of the press and freedom of speech is not anti-hate speech; it is submission.

    The proof of submission lies in ECRI's recommendations to the British government:

    • "establish an independent press regulator";
    • "rigorous training for journalists to ensure better compliance with ethical standards";
    • "review the provisions on incitement to hatred with a view to making them more effective and usable";
    • "establish a real dialogue with Muslims in order to combat Islamophobia. They should consult them on all policies which could affect Muslims";
    • amending the Editor's Code of Practice to ensure that members of groups can submit complaints as victims against biased or prejudicial reporting concerning their community"

    By following these recommendations, the British government would place Muslim organizations in a kind of monopoly position: they would become the only source of information about themselves. It is the perfect totalitarian information order. If a breach of that kind would open in the future, no doubt all the lobbies would rush into the breach: political parties, Protestants, Catholics, Jews, multinationals, everyone.

    The British government did not fall into the trap, and firmly rebuffed ECRI's demands. It told the European council body:

    "The Government is committed to a free and open press and does not interfere with what the press does and does not publish, as long as the press abides by the law."

    In Great Britain, and in all countries of European Union, anti-hate laws already exist. Created to guard against the kind of xenophobic and anti-Semitic propaganda that gave rise to the Holocaust, national hate speech laws have increasingly been invoked to criminalize speech that is merely deemed insulting to one's race, ethnicity, religion, or nationality.

    These laws have also been invoked often by Islamists to sue against anti-Islamist speech (cartoons of Muhammad, blasphemy against Islam, etc.) as manifestations of "racism" — fortunately with little success. Most court cases that Islamists have initiated have failed because Islam is not a race.

    Agnes Callamard, expert on human rights, writes in reference to the United Nations Charter:

    "ARTICLE 19 recognises that reasonable restrictions on freedom of expression may be necessary or legitimate to prevent advocacy of hatred based on nationality, race, religion that constitutes incitement to discrimination, hostility or violence. The organisation does not extend such legitimate restrictions to offensive and blasphemous expressions."

    It is disturbing to wonder how long the EU will strongly engage its experts and influence to cut through existing legal obstacles, in a quest to criminalize any type of criticism of Islam, and to submit to the values of jihad.

  • Paid Protesters "Planning To Cause Chaos In DC" And Block Peaceful Inauguration For Trump

    Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

    disruptj20

    It may be that even with the post-election riots that have swept the country, we ain’t seen nothing yet.

    This country is fissuring. Its people are sharply divided, but more than that, covert finance is pushing things towards unrest and martial law.

    If Soros money and its ilk proves effective, inauguration day on January 20th will become one of the largest demonstrations on record, with a group calling itself #DISRUPTJ20 planning to block “peaceful transition” and disrupt Trump’s swearing in.

    The groups promoting it are calling on people nationwide to join in, and for business in D.C. to take sides and take “direct action” and attempt to stop the parade, block streets and other delay the events as scheduled:

    #DisruptJ20: Call for a bold mobilization against the inauguration of Donald Trump on January 20, 2017

     

    On Friday, January 20, 2017, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as President of the United States. We call on all people of good conscience to join in disrupting the ceremonies. If Trump is to be inaugurated at all, let it happen behind closed doors, showing the true face of the security state Trump will preside over. It must be made clear to the whole world that the vast majority of people in the United States do not support his presidency or consent to his rule.

     

    […] If there is going to be positive change in this society, we have to make it ourselves, together, through direct action.From day one, the Trump presidency will be a disaster. #DisruptJ20 will be the start of the resistance. We must take to the streets and protest, blockade, disrupt, intervene, sit in, walk out, rise up, and make more noise and good trouble than the establishment can bear. The parade must be stopped. We must delegitimize Trump and all he represents. It’s time to defend ourselves, our loved ones, and the world that sustains us as if our lives depend on it—because they do.

     

    […]

     

    If you can’t make it to Washington, DC on January 20, take to the streets wherever you are. We call on our comrades to organize demonstrations and other actions for the night of January 20. There is also a call for a general strike to take place. Organize a walkout at your school now. Workers: call out sick and take the day off. No work, no school, no shopping, no housework.

     

    #DisruptJ20 Spread the word. Join the fight. #DisruptJ20

     

    Facebook: http://tinyurl.com/disruptj20

    Though it remains to be seen how many will actually show up on the day and join in, the group is concerning as it is calling for violence out of the gates.

     

     

    As Dahboo77 is reporting:

    Using a propaganda video packed with outright lies, the radical left is already calling for violent uprisings and is recruiting for people to violently disrupt the Presidential Inauguration on January 20. The recruiting effort is so packed full of unbelievably false information, that only a totally uniformed moron would take it seriously.

    How much longer will foundation fronts have to funnel seed money until – as planned – chaos has been sown?

    How many staged riots and paid provocateurs will it take until a police state response brings this country to its knees, and places it under martial law?

  • Paul Joseph Watson Blasts The MSM: "You're The F**king Experts Of Fake News"

    Paul Joseph Watson is back with another epic rant….this time eviscerating the mainstream media for spreading an obviously biased list of “fake news” sources compiled by a left-wing assistant professor in an obvious attempt to undermine conservative news outlets. 

    We wrote about the list a couple days ago as Zero Hedge itself was actually a target of Melissa “Mish” Zimdars’ fake news wrath.  To our complete “shock”, the list of fake news sources created by the self-described “feminist, activist” who is an avid supporter of numerous “neutral” political groups, like Occupy Wall Street, included several conservative news outlets like Breitbart and InfoWars but somehow missed leftist sites like The Huffington Post which was exposed by WikiLeaks to have been overtly colluding with the Hillary Clinton campaign.

    As always, here are a couple of our favorite lines though the full clip is a must see.

    Oh, and when they say “fake news,” that includes any reporting or opinion that contradicts their leftist narrative.

     

    Who gave the mainstream media the right to be judge, jury and executioner of what constitutes “fake news”?  All you do is put out fake news.  You’re the aficionado of fake news.  You put out the fake news that Hillary Clinton was 98% likely to win the presidency.  You printed out and shipped copies of Newsweek celebrating “Madam President.”  You put out fake, rigged polls that were proven spectacularly wrong.  You create fake narratives like Trump being responsible for violence at his own rallies when it was DNC-funded agitators all along.  You’re the fucking experts of fake news. 

     

    As WikiLeaks exposed, you’re a public relations front for the Democratic Party.  You lost the argument.  You trashed your own credibility.  And now you’re trying to resurrect it by claiming that everyone that beat you is “fake news”.  Give me a break.

     

    As a reminded, here is the full list of news outlets deemed “fake” by the snowflake of infinite wisdom, Melissa Zimdars: 

    Melissa Zimbars

    Fake News

    Fake News

     

    Conveniently for the mainstream media, she ignored the following list of people who WikiLeaks exposed as having actually colluded with Hillary Clinton’s campaign over the course of two years.

  • Iowa Lawmaker Introduces "Suck It Up, Buttercup" Bill To Stop Student-Coddling At Universities

    Submitted by Joseph Jankowski via PlanetFreeWill.com,

    An Iowa lawmaker plans to put forth a bill that will target state universities that use taxpayer dollars to coddle students with sit-ins and grief counseling – such as “cry zones” – in order help them cope with events like President-elect Donald Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton.

    Rep. Bobby Kaufmann plans to introduce the piece of legislation he’s calling the “Suck It Up, Buttercup Bill” when the legislature resumes in January.

    While issuing fines to those universities who want to pamper their students with child-like comfort, the bill would also establish new criminal charges for protesters who shut down highways, a circumstance that has risen out of the many anti-Trump protests that kicked off after the election.

    “I’ve seen four or five schools in other states that are establishing ‘cry zones’ where they’re staffed by state grief counselors and kids can come cry out their sensitivity to the election results,” said Iowa’s Bobby Kaufmann to the Des Moines Register. “I find this whole hysteria to be incredibly annoying. People have the right to be hysterical … on their own time.”

    Following the Donald Trump victory in the Nov. 8 election, schools such as Cornell and Yale went as far as setting up a “cry-in” and a “primal scream” so students could let out their grief and frustration over the results.

    Other elite universities offered students coloring books, puppies, play dough, Legos and bubbles to comfort students who felt distraught post-election.

    “That’s a waste of taxpayer dollars and that also doesn’t prepare kids for life. In life there’s winners and losers and when your car breaks down, your kids get sick or you have to take a second job to pay your mortgage, you don’t get to go to a cry zone, you don’t get to pet a pony. You have to deal with it,” Bobby Kaufmann told Fox and Friends on Wednesday.

    When addressing the anti-Trump protesters, who have organized and blocked highways in over a dozen cities nationwide, Kaufmann said, “You’ve got a right to protest, that’s constitutionally protected. But you do not have a right to throw a temper tantrum on I-80 and put my constituents’ lives in danger.”

    “That’s incredibly dangerous. What if someone had been trying to go to the hospital or was in an emergency and you had these spoiled brats blocking interstate 80?” he said.

    Iowa Rep. Phyllis Thede, (D) Bettendorf has called the legislation odd and says it’s a threat to free speech.

    “I don’t want to go after somebody because they’re fearful, upset or angry,” Thede said. “That’s not what legislatures do.”

    Thede believes they should be helping the protesters, not criminalizing their actions, but Kaufmann thinks the bill will gain support.

    “People say, ‘Suck it up, Buttercup, that’s kind of over the top,’ but so are the protests that are happening,” Kaufmann said.

  • From Consequences To Compromise

    Do as I say, not as I do…

     

    Source: Townhall.com

  • Jack Dorsey Exposed: How Twitter's CEO Restricted Advertising For Trump’s Campaign

    Submitted by Gary Coby, Director of Digital Advertising and Fundraising for Donald Trump, via Medium

    On Sunday, I tweeted…

     

    We had an “upfront deal” with Twitter, which is a common setup where we commit to spending a certain amount on advertising and in exchange receive discounts, perks, and custom solutions.

    Our upfront deal was signed in August.

    Deal Highlights:

    • $5MM Spend Commitment
    • Discounts on Promoted Trends
    • Bonus Media on Other Spending
    • Value Adds, such as Custom Hashtag Emojis

    We also had several promoted trends reserved/purchased:

    • 7/21 RNC Day 4
    • 9/26 1st Debate
    • 10/9 2nd Debate
    • 11/5 Sun Before Election Day

    CUSTOM HASHTAG EMOJIS

    Twitter—or well, Dorsey—restricted us on the most unique part of our deal, the custom hashtag emojis, of which we had two.

    It’s an emoji tied to a specific hashtag. When anyone uses that hashtag, the emoji is automatically added at the end.

    We planned to launch both of our emojis for the first debate. One was a contrasting emoji for the popular #CrookedHillary. They were going to be featured in our promoted trend for maximum exposure.

    ROUND ONE — FIRST DEBATE

    At the beginning of September, I outlined several possible emoji concepts for the TW creative team to make.

    About 2 weeks before the 9/26 debate, the TW team provided several designs that were pre-approved by their legal and policy teams. One included was a hand receiving a moneybag:

    Twitter

     

    Next, I met with TW in NY, at Trump Tower, to tweak the already approved emoji designs. Pushing the envelope, the hand/moneybag emoji evolved into a running stick figure with a moneybag:

    Twitter

     

    The TW team thought this had a good chance of getting approved since all that changed was a hand to a stick figure.

    Sure, it was more aggressive and eye-catching, but that was the goal. I was fine with the hand/moneybag emoji, which was already approved, so I figured we might as well see if we can go further.

    Well, I was wrong.

    Day after day, TW wouldn’t give us an official yay/nay and my contacts inside TW told me the new design was causing a lot of heartburn and “big meetings” with folks at the top.

    Jack Dorsey was never named, just Adam Bain, TW COO.

    I wasn’t too worried because our plans could continue with the hand/moneybag emoji, even if they denied the more aggressive evolution.

    Then, finally, a couple days before the first presidential debate, TW reached out for a call with Dan Greene, VP of US Sales.

    CALL RUNDOWN:

    • Newly evolved running stick figure emoji was not approved.
    • Approval on the previously OK’d (hand/moneybag) emoji was pulled back and was no longer allowed to be used.
    • Twitter’s reason: We couldn’t accuse someone of committing a crime they did not commit or were not under investigation for. (Seriously, they said this.)
    • They claimed to fear litigation from HRC.
    • I told them we were trying to show she’s gotten wealthy from public office—they did not budge.
    • I asked, why we were able to use (still approved) emojis that showed emails being destroyed or phones being destroyed (which could also represent committing a crime)—they could not explain.
    • I asked, if the Clinton Foundation were being investigated for financial crimes, could we use it—they said no.
    • Dan apologized and admitted TW’s wrongdoing in pulling back an emoji that was previously approved.

    To me, this was clearly a BS reason that was made up to give them an out. I was also confidentially told from TW staff that the running stick figure emoji reached Adam Bain, COO, and he personally put a stop to it.

    Given that TW had pulled back a previously approved emoji and disrupted our strategy for the debate just days before, we cancelled our promoted trend (costing them hundreds of thousands of dollars).

    TRYING AGAIN in GOOD FAITH—SECOND DEBATE

    The next plan was to launch with the second presidential debate. TW, admitting wrongdoing for how they handled the first, extended a $50K discount (“make good”) so we would agree to keep our next trend and give this another shot.

    I took them at their word and proceeded. Foolish of me.

    ROUND 2 RUNDOWN:

    • Worked with TW team and our internal creative team to create a moneybag with wings emoji:

    Twitter

     

    • Knowing I needed to appease TW’s legal team, I sent it with an explanation to help fend off the HRC lawyers they feared.
    • Explanation: “The emoji represents govt waste and money flying away from taxpayers. Our internal polling has shown this to be a top issue for voters and it’d be inappropriate to restrict us from being able to discuss this important topic.”
    • Wednesday 10/5, we receive approval from their policy and legal team!

    Twitter

     

    • Thursday, 10/6, we have a call with their comms team to plan the rollout, including the list of media they’ll be leaking the story and emojis to.
    • Slated to launch at 3am ET on Saturday 10/8, with press teasers to go out on Friday 10/7, driven by their comms team.

    Twitter

     

    • Friday 10/7 PM, hours before launch, TW asks for a call, with Jack Dorsey, CEO, Adam Bain COO, and Dan Greene, VP US Sales.
    • My internal TW contacts informed me that on Thursday night, 10/6, TW CEO, Jack Dorsey, personally killed the emoji and notified his senior staff.
    • I asked if “There’s going to be another BS legal reason like last time” and they responded, “No, Jack just killed it, there isn’t one.” They were shocked that this was happening.
    • On the call, Jack and Adam started with a lovefest by telling us how great our use of the platform has been. They then told us a last-minute legal review was triggered and they needed to pull the emoji because there wasn’t a paid-for-by disclaimer. (Again. Seriously, they said this.)
    • However, both DNC and RNC conventions had custom emojis this cycle and they did not use disclaimers.

    Twitter

    • It’s also been reported that a top FEC official has said “the agency does not regulate emojis and that such transparency isn’t required on tweets.”
    • Jack and Adam apologized repeatedly and offered a new incentives package to keep our promoted trend that was just a day away.

    We told them it was BS and what they were doing with a public platform was incredibly reckless and dangerous. We voiced that it was clearly a political move and telling us otherwise was just insulting.

    Jack maintained their talking points and stayed on message. He also pushed back on it being one-sided, because they were “stopping this feature for ALL political campaigns.”

    But, the only other campaign large enough to have this type of deal would have been the Clinton campaign and my contacts inside TW informed me that they did not have one in place.

    So basically, “cancelling for all political campaigns” really meant cancelling ONLY for Donald J. Trump’s campaign.

    In return, I cancelled our 10/9 and 11/5 promoted trends. Further, I pulled all persuasion and lead gen spending, costing Twitter millions of dollars.

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Today’s News 18th November 2016

  • Welcome To The Brave New (Trumpolitical/Trumponomic) World

    Authord by Pepe Escobar, originally posted op-ed via Strategic-Culture.org,

    This does not mean that the Soros regime change racket and its multiple tentacles, in parallel to the Clinton machine-dominated DNC, will quit. Plan A – Maidan in the USA – is not exactly a winner among the masses. Thus Plan B – long-term harassment – was decided this past weekend at a summit in a Washington hotel.

    The endless snowflake whining – we lost the presidential election because of «rogue» FBI, WikiLeaks, the Russians, etc. – was predictable. Yet among the corrupt-to-the-core DNC it seems like no apparatchik has ever read Guy Debord’s Society of the Spectacle. Or is familiar with how showbiz – and talk radio – works.

    Paris is arguably the world capital of critical thinking. Perplexed Parisian intellectual circles at least have found out that the current pan-Western crisis is not only about economics, politics, finance, security and immigration; it’s about «political discourse» itself.

    The easy chic café diagnostic is that Trump’s victory is the symptom of language distorting reality by playing to emotions. It’s true that complex rational discourse does not deliver anymore. The masses don’t read 3,000-word essays; this is for the elites and self-described «experts». But they do respond to outrageous tweets. More than ever, perception is indeed reality.

    Thus the amalgam between Trump and the Front National (FN) in France, led by Marine Le Pen, also a master communicator capable of turning primary emotions into political reality. No wonder «white supremacist» Breitbart News – Trump’s informal Ministry of Information – will increase its exposure in France and support Le Pen.

    What the Paris debate gets right is that nationalist isolationism across the West – using amalgam and clever terminological shortcuts – has become a credible solution to «cure» national identity. Thus the appeal of ditching the EU, among countless Europeans, as a credible alternative against unemployment, as well as a means of increasing security. It’s a Trump Remixed syndrome; barbed wire (metaphorical and otherwise) as a possible choice for re-launching economic growth.

    With Trump’s victory being analyzed as the defeat of political discourse, or the victory of the controversial word, what the Paris debate gets totally wrong is promoting lofty exhortations to «reconcile oneself with complexity» as the only solution. The challenge is actually how to do nuance and complexity in only a few words at a time.

    Words, words, words

    What sophisticated intellectual analyses don't get is that Team Trump strategized a running reality show showcasing – what else – a brand. Dialogue was kept to a – tweet – minimum. Trump himself unveiled it; «These are just words». The Clinton (cash) machine fell into the trap and took these words literally. These were in fact metaphors – understandable by a fourth grader and delivered by a «man boy» impersonating a fourth grader,

    In his CBS interview this past Sunday, Trump admitted the obvious; he won because of the power of social networks, despite the Clinton cash machine spending «much more money than I did». Trump has over 28 million followers combined on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram. This supposedly «hidden minority» dribbled any poll modeling available. And outside the Beltway and Hollywood, they were everywhere.

    Trump perfected the art of simplified political discourse cutting off the middlemen – while reducing corporate/mainstream media, in the process, to no more than a pathetic footnote. The New York Times – «all the news that are irrelevant to print»? – has been a sorry show in itself, promising on the record to «report world news more accurately».

    It’s not that Trump, on the record, had not sent a warning; «I’m very highly educated. I know words. I have the best words». And he knows how to get maximum effect out of minimum (word) investment. Mega-investor Peter Thiel totally got it, telling the National Press Club in Washington how «the media is always taking Trump literally».

    Thiel stressed, shortly before the election, that «a lot of voters who vote for Trump take Trump seriously but not literally, so when they hear things like the Muslim comment or the wall comment, their question is not, ‘Are you going to build a wall like the Great Wall of China?’ or, you know, ‘How exactly are you going to enforce these tests?’ What they hear is we’re going to have a saner, more sensible immigration policy».

    So what if Trump was killing syntax via his loud and inarticulate outbursts? The meaning was always clear. The pile up of exploding rhetorical devices was always targeted at tapping into raw emotion. Thus the avalanche of «us and them»; «yuuuuge» superlatives («amazing», «tremendous potential», «wonderful»); all kinds of hyperbole; non-stop repetition; calculated stutter enhancing his trademark «improvised» delivery; and a sea of euphemisms («grabbing women by the pussy?» Nah; just plain old «locker room talk»).

    Snowflakes meanwhile were endlessly re-comforted by their standard interpretation of Trump as a con artist invented by mass media who first excelled on reality TV and then turned politics into a circus. They did not see him capitalizing on his monster advertising dollars/ratings pulling power; they did not see that the more (hated) corporate media attacked him, the better he looked for the «invisible minority»; and they did not see how the Trumpian brand of «magic realism» played all kinds of tricks with «reality».

    Social Darwinism run amok

    Zygmunt Bauman, the foremost conceptualizer of liquid modernity – and a huge influence in my 2007 book Globalistan – correctly observed how Trump has offered a unique, once in a lifetime occasion for a condemnation, without appeal, of the whole political system.

    Bauman’s on to something when he notes how traditional mechanisms such as the Montesquieu-style division of power between Executive, Legislative and Judiciary, as well as the Anglo-Saxon checks and balances, may be increasingly deprived of meaning to the benefit of an agglutination of power in authoritarian mode.

    Bauman perfectly understood how Trump married identity politics to economic angst – condensing all aspects of the existential angst consuming what’s left of the working class and the middle class. Thus the success of the lightning fast solution – the expulsion of the ethnically diverse.

    The US electorate that bothered to vote – very important; 43 percent did not – may have bought, according to Bauman, a strongman not as poison but as antidote; a «doer» capable of deploying instantaneous solutions with immediate effects. If and how he will be able to deliver is another story.

    What’s certain is that the seesaw across the West between conservatives and social democracy is not a see saw anymore. When in power, everyone was just reproducing slight variations of neoliberalism.

    Yet as we have now seen, liberalism has been dealt a serious body blow – even as the so-called progressive Left has utterly failed to «sell» to the masses a serious, history-based critique of neoliberalism.

    Meanwhile, civil war – national and global – is now raw, everywhere; social Darwinism run amok. We have an Atlanticist Wall – from Brexit to the Rio Grande – in the process of being erected against the Global South. We have the Declining White Man against minorities that in many cases have become majorities. We have Western elites pitted against «Islam» – an absurdity, because the real enemy is Salafi-jihadism, a derivation of Wahhabism. And ultimately, we have The Ultimate Predator – Man – relentlessly decimating Nature.

    In a Gramsci sense, the old order has completely collapsed, but the new order has not yet been born. It might be a new order based on the BRICS – mostly Russia, India and China. The progressive Left must find the conceptual road map to be part of it – and influence it.

    Meanwhile, we will be living among the myriad debris originated by the Trumpolitics IED. America invented the politically correct. Trump bombed politically correct. America is proud of corporate media. Trump bombed corporate media. These are already two important victories.

    Trump launched an IPO over the White House. Now he’s the CEO. If – and that’s a mighty if – he manages to run it like a sound business, that’s bound to be a good deal not only for the US but to the whole planet.

  • Constitutional Law Experts Confirm Trump's "Muslim Registry" Not Illegal

    Despite post-election threats that if the president-elect attempts "to implement his unconstitutional campaign promises, we’ll see him in court," Politico reports that three constitutional lawyers say the ACLU won’t have much of a shot before a judge. The Supreme Court has "consistently reaffirmed the power of the president to control the entry and exit from the country as a matter of national security," giving Trump’s administration a decided advantage in any litigation.

    A week after the ACLU tweeted…

    Reuters reports that the president-elect’s team is considering an immigration system modeled after a controversial one implemented in the months after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. It fulfills Trump’s promise of “extreme vetting” for immigrants from countries affected by terrorism, a threshold he has yet to flesh out more fully. As Politico notes,

    That program, labeled the National Security Entry-Exit Registration System, required those entering the U.S. from a list of certain countries — all but one predominantly Muslim — to register when they arrived in the U.S., undergo more thorough interrogation and be fingerprinted. The system, referred to by the acronym NSEERS, was criticized by civil rights groups for targeting a religious group and was phased out in 2011 because it was found to be redundant with other immigration systems.

     

    Robert McCaw, director of government affairs for the Council on American-Islamic Relations, said a reinstitution of NSEERS would be akin to “just turning back the clock.” CAIR will lobby heavily against the system as not only discriminatory but also ineffective, McCaw said, if it ends up being proposed by the Trump administration.

     

    He also accused Kobach, an architect of the original NSEERS program when he was with the Justice Department under the George W. Bush administration, of having “a long ax to grind with the Muslim community.”

     

    NSEERS and registries like it are totally ineffective and burdensome and they’re perceived by Muslims and other minorities as just being a massive profiling campaign that, in the past, targeted Muslim travelers solely based on their religion and ethnicity,” he said. “When every country on that list happens to be a majority-Muslim country, it is religious profiling. Because there are threats from other nations and other communities and groups that don’t make it on NSEERS.”

    But, as Politico concludes, a program like NSEERS would likely pass constitutional muster before a judge, multiple experts said, in part because it already has. The system was never struck down by a court in the nearly nine years it was in place.

    Jonathan Turley, a law professor at George Washington University, said Wednesday that “a president’s power is at its apex at the nation’s borders” and that the Supreme Court has “consistently reaffirmed the power of the president to control the entry and exit from the country as a matter of national security.” Such precedent, he said would give Trump’s administration a decided advantage in any litigation.

     

    University of Virginia international law professor emeritus David Martin said the NSEERS program is constitutionally sound but fraught with issues as a matter of policy. He said even when it was in effect, NSEERS was “more and more seen as potentially counterproductive” as the Sept. 11 attacks receded in America’s rear-view mirror and the government developed “more of an appreciation that doing certain things that singled out Muslims and were seen as discriminatory were strategically unsound.”

    But  the cries of discrimination that have already begun from organizations like CAIR and others carry tremendous moral and political weight.

    “It’s kind of an American tradition to claim that things you disagree with are unconstitutional, and sometimes are out of keeping with the spirit of constitutional values, even if ultimately a court might uphold them,” Martin said. “So, I think it’s quite legitimate to argue on the basis of constitutional values even if you don’t absolutely have a Supreme Court precedent that clearly establishes your point.”

    President-Elect Trump's immigration group had also discussed ways of overturning President Barack Obama's 2012 executive action that has granted temporary deportation relief and work permits to more than 700,000 undocumented people or "dreamers" who came to the United States as children of illegal immigrants.

  • "Are You Still Crying Wolf?"

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    Scott Alexander has just penned what is perhaps the most brilliant, and important, post-election article I have read. It’s titled, You Are Still Crying Wolf, and here are the first few paragraphs:

    [Content warning: hate crimes, Trump, racism. I have turned off comments to keep out bad people who might be attracted by this sort of thing. Avoid sharing in places where this will attract the wrong kind of attention, as per your best judgment. Please don’t interpret anything in this article to mean that Trump is not super terrible]

     

    [Epistemic status: A reduction of a complicated issue to only 8000 words, because nobody would read it if it were longer. I think this is true but incomplete. I will try to discuss missing parts at more length later.]

     

    I. A New York Times article from last September that went viral only recently: Crying Wolf, Then Confronting Trump. It asks whether Democrats have “cried wolf” so many times that nobody believes them anymore. And so:

     

    When “honorable and decent men” like McCain and Romney “are reflexively dubbed racists simply for opposing Democratic policies, the result is a G.O.P. electorate that doesn’t listen to admonitions when the genuine article is in their midst”.

     

    I have a different perspective. Back in October 2015, I wrote that the picture of Trump as “the white power candidate” and “the first openly white supremacist candidate to have a shot at the Presidency in the modern era” was overblown. I said that “the media narrative that Trump is doing some kind of special appeal-to-white-voters voodoo is unsupported by any polling data”, and predicted that:

     

    If Trump were the Republican nominee, he could probably count on equal or greater support from minorities as Romney or McCain before him.

     

    Now the votes are in, and Trump got greater support from minorities than Romney or McCain before him. You can read the Washington Post article, Trump Got More Votes From People Of Color Than Romney Did, or look at the raw data (source).

     

    screen-shot-2016-11-17-at-1-13-45-pm

     

    Trump made gains among blacks. He made big among Latinos. He made gains among Asians. The only major racial group where he didn’t get a gain of greater than 5% was white people. I want to repeat that: the group where Trump’s message resonated least over what we would predict from a generic Republican was the white population.

     

    Nor was there some surge in white turnout. I don’t think we have official numbers yet, but by eyeballing what data we have it looks very much like whites turned out in equal or lesser numbers this year than in 2012, 2008, and so on.

     

    [EDIT: though see here for an alternate perspective]

     

    The media responded to all of this freely available data with articles like White Flight From Reality: Inside The Racist Panic That Fueled Donald Trump’s Victory and Make No Mistake: Donald Trump’s Win Represents A Racist “Whitelash”.

     

    I stick to my thesis from October 2015. There is no evidence that Donald Trump is more racist than any past Republican candidate (or any other 70 year old white guy, for that matter). All this stuff about how he’s “the candidate of the KKK” and “the vanguard of a new white supremacist movement” is made up. It’s a catastrophic distraction from the dozens of other undeniable problems with Trump that could have convinced voters to abandon him. That it came to dominate the election cycle should be considered a horrifying indictment of our political discourse, in the same way that it would be a horrifying indictment of our political discourse if the entire Republican campaign had been based around the theory that Hillary Clinton was a secret Satanist. Yes, calling Romney a racist was crying wolf. But you are still crying wolf.

     

    I avoided pushing this point any more since last October because I didn’t want to look like I was supporting Trump, or accidentally convince anyone else to support Trump. But since we’re past the point where that matters anymore, I want to present my case.

    I realize that all of this is going to make me sound like a crazy person and put me completely at odds with every respectable thinker in the media, but luckily, being a crazy person at odds with every respectable thinker in the media has been a pretty good ticket to predictive accuracy lately, so whatever.

    That’s just the tip of the iceberg from a spectacular piece of writing. It’s lengthy, but don’t let that scare you away. If you don’t have the time, make the time. Then share it with all your friends who are obsessed about how Trump signifies that white nationalism is ascendant, while at the same time failing to consider many of the more acute and realistic risks that a man like Trump represents. Here is the link, once again: You Are Still Crying Wolf.

    Observing Trump primarily through the largely media/Democratic Party lens of extreme bigotry is not only wrong, it is very dangerous. Not because I’m a Trump supporter (I didn’t support Trump or Clinton), but because the public resistance to him will then focus its energy around this one-dimensional notion that the main battle is to fight back against the white supremacist who has taken over the White House. This “crying wolf” takes everybody’s eye off the ball, divides the citizenry based on what is largely a false narrative, and it subdues and confuses the needed resistance to Trump on other, but less emotionally powerful, matters of public importance. It’s sort of like how the media and politicians successfully fear-mongered the public into sacrificing their civil liberties after 9/11, despite the fact that being killed by a terrorist is extraordinarily unlikely.

    As I’ve been saying for years, if we really want to make progress, we need to find those issues that unite us as Americans, and fight together to achieve them. If we allow ourselves to be divided and conquered on the basis of identity politics, or anything else, we are truly doomed.

    Finally, let’s take a break from saying “Trump is literally Hitler” and recognize the following.

     

     

    screen-shot-2016-11-17-at-1-10-50-pm

  • Hillary "Attack Dog" David Brock Plotting With Soros, Steyer, Sussman To "Kick Trump's Ass"

    The last time we encountered David Brock, Hillary Clinton’s so called media “attack dog”, was two months ago when we exposed a money laundering scheme involving over a dozen of his Pro-Clinton SuperPACs. Now, it appears that unable to concede defeat, the man who aligned his career with Hillary Clinton, is going for blood, and is soliciting the help, but mostly money, of Clinton’s top donors.

    According to Politico, Brock is launching his own Koch-brothers-like donor network to finance attacks on President-elect Donald Trump and to rebuild the political left after Trump’s stunning victory over Clinton last week. In an email sent out on Thursday night, Brock emailed more than 200 of the biggest donors on the left, including finance titans George Soros, Tom Steyer and Donald Sussman all of whom invested millions of dollars in Clinton’s campaign with nothing to show for it, inviting them to a private retreat in Palm Beach during inauguration weekend to assess what Democrats did wrong in 2016, figure out how to correct it and raise cash for those initiatives.

    This will be THE gathering for Democratic donors from across the country to hear from a broad and diverse group of leaders about the next steps for progressives under a Trump Administration,” Brock wrote to the donors in an email.  “What better way to spend inaugural weekend than talking about how to kick Donald Trump’s ass?” Brock said.

    The retreat, which is planned as the first in a series of regular gatherings, will feature appearances by an array of Democratic elected officials, operatives and liberal thinkers and group officials, Brock explained in an interview.

    While it is unclear how many of the addressed billionaires confirmed their presence at this “secret” gathering, Brock predicted there would be significant interest, noting that the keynote address at his last major donor conference, back in 2013, was delivered by former President Bill Clinton. It is unclear how much Clinton received for one hours of his time.

    Brock is a self-described “right-wing hitman-turned-Clinton enforcer” who has used his relationships with some of the left’s wealthiet supporters and billionaire donors to build an armada of aggressive political outfits that have become pillars of the institutional left and that raised a combined $65 million during the 2016 cycle. As profiled previously, Brock’s groups include the conservative media monitoring non-profit Media Matters, the opposition research super PAC American Bridge and the legal watchdog Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington.

    That’s not all: other groups in his network include the liberal media-funding vehicle American Independent Institute, the media-training non-profit Franklin Forum and the for-profit social media operation ShareBlue, which The New York Times described as “Hillary Clinton’s Outrage Machine.” A seventh group, a super PAC called Correct the Record that was created to coordinate directly with Clinton’s campaign, is winding down, though Brock said that a number of its functions and personnel likely will be absorbed by his other groups.

    And yet one wonders if Brock’s attempt to square things up with Trump isn’t too little, too late, especially for a many who like Huma Abedin, has been so closely associated with Hillary and her now defunct political career: Brock acknowledged in the interview: “There is no question that we poured our heart and soul into this election for Hillary, but these institutions were built before her campaign and were intended to outlast it.”

    To separate himself from the Clintons whom he server so well over the years, Brock said in his email to donors that he created Media Matters more than a decade ago to help the left push back during George W. Bush’s presidency.

    “In 2005, we were part of a successful progressive effort to regroup, retool and recover,” he wrote. “While today’s situation is more dire, media matters more than ever.”

    But the biggest problem for Brock is that he is likely stepping on the very toes of those whose money he is after: as Politico notes, the Palm Beach retreat seems to be a challenge to the 12-year-old Democracy Alliance, a club of liberal financiers that was started by Soros and a handful of other major donors to fund the institutional left. In fact, the club, which held its annual winter meeting this week in Washington, helped launch Media Matters, and many of Brock’s donors belong to its ranks. Brock said he’s inviting the president of the DA, as the club is known, to his Palm Beach retreat.

    There is one way Brock’s network hopes to differentiate itself: while the Democracy Alliance at its winter meeting discussed ways to push back on the Trump administration, many of the group’s members have tried to train its focus on pressuring Democrats from the left on issues like fighting climate change, money in politics and drug laws; Brock however is more overtly and aggressively political, and has been “largely agnostic on the philosophical divisions with which Democrats are grappling.”

    “We don’t think of this as representing a faction of the Democratic Party, but a cross-section of it, so we’re not going to precook things ideologically,” he said. “It is very politically minded, and there is an urgency to it.”

    At this point two questions emerge: one of the main reasons why Clinton lost is precisely due to behind the scenes scheming such as this, where political “attack dog” operatives would meet with billionaires and strategize how to shift public perception on any number of items. That has now been proven to be a losing strategy. Have the democrats truly not learned anything from their most shocking failure in history?

    The next question is just how much more “overtly and aggressively political” will Brock, whose organizations have been alleged to be behind a number of the anti-Trump riots in recent months, be in his quest to take down, or rather “kick the ass” of Donald Trump. Because if there is one thing that is so far missing from the most scandalous political election in recent history, it is an attempt to physically eliminate the president. We can only hope that the “hitman-turned-Clinton enforcer” will not decide to go that far.

  • Great News On Trump Appointments

    Flynn for the Win!

    Preface:  I’ve slammed Trump when I thought he might appoint bad guys.  But there’s now cause for celebration.

    Trump has purportedly offered General Michael Flynn a post as National Security Advisor.

    This is GREAT news …

    Flynn  – a 3-star general – is former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency and director of Intelligence for the Joint Special Operations Command.

    Why do we like Flynn?

    Because he:

    I am hopeful that Flynn will help overturn decades of Neocon and Neoliberal warmongering

    What Liberals Should Like About Steve Bannon, Trump’s Chief Stategist

    I’d never heard of Steve Bannon until Trump named him as chief strategist and senior counselor.

    I soon learned that Bannon is executive chairman of Breitbart, which the media labels an “alt right” news source (I’ve only read a few articles on Breitbart, when linked from other websites).

    I’ve also heard a lot of accusations that Bannon is a racist, sexist and homophobe. If true, that’s despicable.

    Indeed, Democrats are so upset by Trump’s naming of Bannon that the Senate Minority Leader (Harry Reid) has demanded that Trump rescind Bannon’s appointment.

    But there’s one reason that liberals should applaud Bannon’s appointment. The Fiscal Times explains:

    On Tuesday, BuzzFeed News released a transcript of remarks Bannon delivered to the Christian conservative Human Dignity Institute in 2014. In a lengthy discourse on the causes and aftereffects of the 2008 financial crisis Bannon, himself a former managing partner at Goldman Sachs, blamed the financial crisis and subsequent recession on the “greed” of his fellow bankers and expressed anger at the fact that no bank executives faced criminal prosecution.

     

    “Think about it — not one criminal charge has ever been brought to any bank executive associated with 2008 crisis,” Bannon said. “And in fact, it gets worse. No bonuses and none of their equity was taken. So part of the prime drivers of the wealth that they took in the 15 years leading up to the crisis was not hit at all, and I think that’s one of the fuels of this populist revolt that we’re seeing as the tea party.”

     

    He continued, “[T]he underpinning of this populist revolt is the financial crisis of 2008. That revolt, the way that it was dealt with, the way that the people who ran the banks and ran the hedge funds have never really been held accountable for what they did, has fueled much of the anger in the tea party movement in the United States.”

     

    Some of Bannon’s remarks sound as though they could have come not from the close aide to an incoming Republican president, but rather from liberals like Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders or populist Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Among other things, he discussed what he sees as the need to limit the activities that financial institutions are allowed to engage in, such as forcing commercial banks to focus on lending, and blocking investment banks from trading in securities.

    Bannon criticized steps taken at the outset of the financial crisis to prevent widespread failures in the financial services industry, arguing that the burden of paying for the bailout was on taxpayers while the benefits flowed to “crony capitalists.”

     

    ***

     

    Here’s how capitalism metastasized, is that all the burdens put on the working-class people who get none of the upside. All of the upside goes to the crony capitalists.

     

    “The bailouts were absolutely outrageous, and here’s why: It bailed out a group of shareholders and executives who were specifically accountable. The shareholders were accountable for one simple reason: They allowed this to go wrong without changing management … And we know this now from congressional investigations, we know it from independent investigations, this is not some secret conspiracy. This is kind of in plain sight.”

     

    Bannon described an alliance of law firms, accounting firms and other influential players in Washington who collectively pressured politicians and prosecutors to look the other way as, in his telling, the same people who caused the crisis in the first place benefited lavishly from the efforts to repair the damage they had done.

    But it was his promise — made nearly a year before Trump declared his candidacy and almost two years before Bannon became CEO of his campaign — that will likely cause the most concern in Wall Street boardrooms.

     

    “And they’ve never been held accountable today,” Bannon said. “Trust me — they are going to be held accountable.”

    Bannon’s statements mirror what top liberal  economists (and top economists from across the political spectrum) have repeatedly said.

    For example:

    Prosecuting Fraud

    Greed

    Disgorging Ill-Gotten Gains

    Popular Anger

    Banks Should Be Limited to Banking

    Bailouts

    Crony Capitalism

    Benefiting from Wrongdoing

    So whatever you think of Bannon on a personal level, he could – if his statements reflect his real beliefs, and if he champions them in the Trump White House – help fix our broken financial system …

  • Rutgers "Beyoncé Professor" Loses It Over Trump Victory; Sent To Bellevue For Psych Evaluation

    Up until November 8th, Kevin Allred was just another run-of-the-mill “Professor of Beyoncé” at Rutgers University.  But that all changed when Trump won the Presidency and Allred decided to live-tweet his nervous breakdown.

    It all started with the following tweet in which Allred threatened to “shoot at random white people.”

    Rutgers

     

    Apparently, the administrators at Rutgers were not all that amused by the threat and sent the police to Allred’s house setting off the following glorious tweet storm.

    Rutger

     

    And, of course, the tweet storm continues on today as Allred attempts to paint himself as the victim rather than the perpetrator who threatened the lives of 1,000 innocent, white snowflakes at Rutgers.

     

    But, as is true with most things, we suspect Allred has other motivations behind extending his new-found fame…perhaps it has something to do with his desire to publish his “Politicizing Beyonce” book?

    Rutgers

  • Raoul Pal Warns "Trump Will See A Recession In 2017"

    Authored by Raoul Pal via The Global Macro Investor,

    US Presidential Elections and Recessions

    As you know, I follow the business cycle, which describes the ebb and flow of the economy from boom to bust that drives asset prices and thus our investment choices.

    Linear models in a cyclical world

    Most economic models don’t use the business cycle even though it clearly exists, which strongly suggests that economic linear models are wrong, yet economists sadly persist in this flawed linear analysis. This lack of acknowledgement of the business cycle is why so many economists are almost always wrong in their forecasts. Steady state analysis is proven time and time again to be junk.

    Austrian economists (and a few others) do however accept the business cycle as given but they endlessly debate what causes this ebb and flow in the economy. In general, most opt for the credit cycle as the explanation without thought as to what creates the credit cycle and thus they fall into the economic model trap again.

    The practical world

    I live in the world of practical economics – where the investment rubber meets the economic road – so I ponder less about the detailed why and try to instead look at the when in terms of timing of the booms and busts.

    Recession and Elections

    I recently noted that since 1910, the US economy is either in recession or enters a recession within twelve months in every single instance at the end of a two-term presidency… effecting a 100% chance of recession for the new President.

    No recession without an election

    I then spent some time looking at US recessions in general, and found that every single one occurred during, or just after, an election, without exception.

    Not every single election sees a recession, only every two-term incumbent change. Some two-term Presidents saw recessions at their first-term re-elections too (Wilson and Eisenhower).

    The following chart shows every NBER recession since 1910 (in yellow) with the new President after a two-term election marked in white and the new Presidents after a single-term presidency in red. Wilson and Eisenhower appear as both. Only Coolidge saw more than a year (sixteen months) from his second-term election and the onset of the subsequent recession at the end of WWI…

    click image to enlarge

    Just to be 100% clear, the coloured vertical lines show the election date. Every President’s name written in white followed a two-term presidency. They each suffer recessions early in their presidency. And those names in red also suffered immediate recessions but after a single-term change of presidency. No recession except that of 1979 (clarified below) is not explained by its proximity to an election.

    Some observers might suggest that the correlation between recession dates and election dates is spurious but I simply refuse to believe that based on the chart above. It is not a coincidence.

    Why some new governments, after a change of a single-term presidency, don’t see an immediate recession remains a mystery, but those instances are few: Clinton, Carter and Johnson. Of these only Johnson and Clinton did not see a recession at all. Carter got his recession at the end of his presidency, but don’t forget Ford was not voted in so no election cycle occurred.

    In the last 100 years, the recession of 1979 is the only recession not to occur around an election date (again, Carter came into office after Ford who did not undergo the election cycle).

    Just mull that over…

    Every single US recession bar one (with explainable circumstances) occurred around an election. Only two Presidents in history did not see a recession and they were inaugurated after single-term Presidents.

    There are a few other things to note from this analysis:

    Politics creates recessions

     

    Firstly, it is the political cycle that is the key driver of recessions – governmental cycles in one way or another are an essential component. I am really not yet sure of the reason why two-term presidential cycles are so spectacularly consistent in provoking recessions but I do know that election dates are super helpful for predicting recessions and thus asset prices. The investment game is all about odds, and odds of 100% – even from a small data sample – are incredibly useful. Sure, it might not remain 100% forever but the probability is still going to be extremely high and that’s all we need to make successful forecasts and investments.

     

    [If you are not yet familiar with the relationship between the business cycle and asset prices, I’d suggest watching the video on the subject that I produced for Real Vision Television.]

     

     

    Politicians care about themselves

     

    Secondly, it makes you question whether the governmental system in general has politicians’ best interests at heart, or that of the country. It is difficult to believe it is primarily the country’s economic wellbeing that the politicians care about when this cycle is so evident.

     

    Trump will see a recession in 2017

     

    Finally, bearing in mind the above, we have to acknowledge that there is an extremely high chance of a recession within the coming year with the imminent change of government in the US after a two-term presidency. History would suggest that the odds are 100%.

    Should you really be betting on growth and inflation for 2017?

    I very much doubt it.

    I think that the current euphoria for equities and hatred for bonds is going to be exactly the wrong trade for 2017.

  • "Violent Rotations" – Record Equity ETF Inflows, Record EM Debt Outflows… And It's Just Beginning

    Over the weekend, we reported that as a result of the Trump victory, the market underwent some truly staggering asset rotations and fund flows, leading to trillions in gains (for equities) and losses (for credit). Today, after the latest Lipper and EPFR fund flow data, we can say that the unprecedented fund flows have continued with numerous records being made out across the board.

    According to Lipper data, in the week ended November 16, investors flooded $23.6 billion in new cash on U.S.-based stock funds over the latest week, the most in nearly two years and the third-largest haul for those funds on record. This number consisted of a record $27 billion inflow into equity ETFs, suggesting that even during moments of peak euphoria, active managers are unable to get funding: US-based equity mutual funds posted yet another $3.4 billion in outflows in the past week.

    Meanwhile, as expected, US-based taxable bond funds saw substantial outflows, amounting to $5.9 billion in the 3rd straight week of outflows between mutual funds and ETFs. And don’t even bring up Emerging Market bonds: those just saw record outflows.

    This means that after years of predictions of a Great Rotation from stocks to bonds, it finally took place… but if you blinked too long, you missed it.  Indeed, as The Long View twitter account puts it, “the democratization of investing has risks. Hot money creates skew as bigger crowds rush through illiquid exits en masse.” Well, this week they were rushing out of anything rates related and flooding into equity linked products.

    For a different perspective, this time through the eyes of EPFR, we go to Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett who summarizes that week’s events with two words: “Violent rotation”, and goes on to list why:

    Record inflows to equity ETFs, record inflows to financial sector funds, biggest bond redemptions in 3½ years, record redemptions from EM debt.

    “Great Rotation” flows: largest equity inflows in 2 years ($28bn), biggest bond outflows in 3½ years ($18bn); widest weekly disparity between stock & bond flows ever.

    Trading a secular inflection point: if BREXIT marked 5,000 year low in global interest rates, Trump marked moment investors started to position for bond bear market; note yields can rise quickly…price action always violently big at secular inflection points as overshoots corrected quickly (e.g. Jul’80-Oct’81 US bond yields surged from 10% in 16%; by Oct’82 yields back at 10%).

    Bond vs Equity flows: past decade $1.5tn inflows to global bond funds vs $0 for global equity funds (Chart 4); mutual fund flows (excluding ETFs) show extreme divergence of $1.1tn bond inflows vs $1.3tn equity outflows (Chart 5).

    Bond bloodbath: this week largest EM debt redemptions on record (Chart 2); largest muni bond outflows in 3½ years; largest Treasury outflows in 12 months. Dollar pain trades: surge in DXY>100 causes largest precious metals outflows in 3½ years & largest EM equity outflows in 14 months.

    Inflation rotation: record financials inflows (monster $7.2bn – Chart 1); largest materials inflows in three years; 23rd week of TIPS inflows ($0.8bn); inflows to bank loan funds 18 of past 20 weeks.

    Passive smashing active: note astounding contrast this week between record inflow to equity ETFs ($34bn) & 37th straight week of equity mutual fund outflows; since 2002, $2.1tn inflows to “passive” funds vs $1.8tn outflows from “active” funds (Chart 3).

    Violence vs peace: what could temporarily arrest Nov stampede out of bonds…weak data…1st post-Trump data was strong weekly initial unemployment claims & poor weekly mortgage applications… numbers next week represent 1st “clean” post-election  data…mortgage apps more imp for us…2nd consecutive weak mortgage applications reading (30-year mortgage rates up 40bps to 3.94% since  election) needed to calm bond markets (data released 23rd).

    Some more details on what has been a truly historic week:

    Asset Class Flows

    • Equities: largest inflows in 2 years ($27.5bn) ($34bn inflows to ETFs offset by $7bn outflows from mutual funds)
    • Bonds: largest outflows since Jun’13 ($18.1bn)
    • Precious metals: largest outflows since Jun’13 ($2.7bn)

    Fixed Income Flows:

    • Record outflows from EM debt funds ($6.6bn)
    • Largest outflows from muni bond funds since Jun’13 ($3.0bn)
    • Largest outflows from Govt/Tsy funds in 12 months ($3.4bn)
    • Chunky $3.8bn outflows from HY bond funds (3 straight weeks)
    • $2.4bn outflows from IG bond funds
    • 23 straight weeks of TIPS inflows ($0.8bn)
    • Inflows to bank loan funds in 18 of past 20 weeks ($0.6bn)

    Equity Flows 

    • EM: largest weekly outflows in 14 months ($5.4bn)
    • US: largest weekly inflows in 2 years ($30.7bn)
    • Europe: rare $0.8bn inflows (largest in 9 months)
    • Japan: $1.0bn outflows (outflows in 3 of past 4 weeks)
    • By sector: monster inflows to financials ($7.2bn) & healthcare ($3.1bn); largest materials inflows in 3 years ($1.4bn); 7 straight weeks of consumer outflows ($0.8bn)

    * * *

    And keep in mind this is just one week after the election results: the flow party is just getting started.

    Traditionally, during such times of violent rotations, numerous hedge funds don’t survive simply because they get caught up in the margin calls, are unable to sell at modeled prices and fail to reposition fast enough. We should know the names of the first casualties within days.

  • "Triggered" Lena Dunham Checks Into Posh Arizona Resort For "Vision Quest"

    Last week we noted an article written by Lena Dunham for the feminist blog Lenny Letter, entitled “Don’t Agonize, Organize,” in which Dunham chronicled her complete devastation on election night after she realized that “something had gone horribly wrong”

    The three hours I spent at the Javits Center Tuesday night, surrounded by campaign staffers and fellow surrogates for Hillary Clinton, are blurred and spotty. At a certain point it became clear something had gone horribly wrong. Celebrants’ faces turned. The modeling had been incorrect. Watching the numbers in Florida, I touched my face and realized I was crying. “Can we please go home?” I said to my boyfriend. I could tell he was having trouble breathing, and I could feel my chin breaking into hives. Another woman showed me her matching hive, hidden by fresh concealer.

     

    At home I got in the shower and began to cry even harder. My boyfriend, who had already wept, watched me as I mumbled incoherently, clutching myself. “It wasn’t supposed to go this way. It was supposed to be her job. She worked her whole life for the job. It’s her job.”

    Since election day we’ve been peppered by one outburst after another from the disaffected snowflake who can’t seem to come to terms with the results of the democratic process.  She recently went so far as to share her utter “terror” that a “predator will soon be residing in the White House.”

    Now, apparently the post-election stress has just overwhelmed the sensitive Dunham to the point that she has checked herself into a posh resort in Sedona, Arizona to recover from her misery.  Per the Instagram post below, Dunham has resorted to desert “vision quests” to help with her suffering.

    Asked the Canyon for some guidance. She said this week is going to be revolutionary, and so I threw my arms open and said “bring it.” (Good thing we got the week’s first true smile on camera.) Loving you all and whispered some wishes for you into the big red rock.

     

    While we wish her the best of luck as she wanders aimlessly in the desert, we would just like to remind Dunham that travel arrangements are still set to the extent she wants to follow through on her pledge to move to Vancouver. 

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