Today’s News 4th December 2016

  • Democrat Strategist on CNN Said ‘We Don’t Need White People Leading Democrats Now’

    When asked by two CNN shills who she thought should be the next Chair of the DNC, democrat statagist, and former Bernie Sanders spokeswoman, Symone Sanders said ‘we don’t need white people leading the democrats now.’ Instead, she felt someone of a darker persuasion should lead them, in order to best represent ‘diversity.’ Apparently, diversity doesn’t include all races — just the ones that aren’t white — according to Symone. If you recall, Symone mocked the Trump supporter that was viciously beaten by thugs — saying ‘oh my god poor white people,’ when asked about the harrowing event. The problem isn’t Symone. There are lots of racists pigs like her, traversing the globe spreading their demented version of hatred. The issue that I take with these comments is the platform from which she’s allotted to make them, the global network of CNN. Notice how the two cucks next to her didn’t even bother to call out her bullshit, with the flaccid male sitting there just nodding his head? The good news is, these people are weak. Their ideas and schemes crumble very easily; because at the heart of progressive ideologies is a sickness whose columns and tenets fall one by one after just a very small amount of inspection. Populism is on the rise and the culture wars will be won by people wholly interested in freedom — rejecting the superstate and all of its trimmings. The perversion and the lies will not last the test of time and history will remember them as fleeting symbols that result when corruption intermingles with zeal — the deadliest of concoctions, which stands at the precipice, right now, of erasing the democratic party from existence.

    Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

  • Redneck Investin Part 4 – Free on the Fringe

    Seems yall didn’t quite get the gist of our series – and why it should even be bothered to appear.  Well, a few reasons.  One, not everyone has the means of investing in ‘decent’ strategies that may only be eligible for accredited investors or QEPs.  Two, those who don’t have the means to invest in $1 M minimum programs also don’t have the means of educating themselves to the level that they can do it themselves successfully.  Three, this analysis can shift your thinking and help improve your existing investing strategy.  Rednecks survive on inspiration as well as perspiration (although, most don’t shower daily).  

    Soros has backed the blacks; they now have a voice, and they have funding.  Who speaks for bubba?  Let’s Git-R-Dun!  WARNING- IF THESE SUGGESTIONS BORDER ON THE QUASI LEGAL, POTENTIALLY UNETHICAL- NOTE THAT THEY ARE FOR ENTERTAINMENT PUPOSES ONLY.  KIDS, DON’T TRY THIS AT HOME.  PARENTS, DON’T TRY THIS AT WORK!

    1) Free Money Claims

    The class action industry produces thousands of settlements each year.  Many of them are consumer settlements.  And many consumers don’t even know about claims they may be entitled to.  Every case is different, but in almost all cases only a small fraction of potential claimants register with the settlement administrator.  Legally, once a settlement is reached, funds must be distributed to injured consumers by a certain date.  If all claimants do not complete the paperwork by the deadline, funds will be distributed on a pro rata basis to the claimants that do.  Here’s one site that lists consumer claims: http://www.freemoneyclaims.com

    2) Give plasma, get paid

    This is a known goto when you need money for the hobo class and college students.  However, many think ‘giving blood’ makes you dizzy, and it’s possible to get diseases.  Well, now they need the ‘plasma’ from the blood, which is a little different – and well, what free stuff doesn’t involve a little risk?  No it’s probably completely safe, although check the clinic before you go!

    3) Start a charity

    In most states, 501(c)(3) corporations can be filed without fee, or for a nominal fee such as $25.  In many states, there are no annual filing fees, and no annual taxes!  Donations made to your charity are tax deductible.  Plus – you’re doing a good deed for your chosen cause.  Pick a good one, nothing dubious like ‘helping my neighbor’ that won’t fly.  Scientific and Technological development is always good.  Pay yourself a hefty administration salary (you’ll have to pay taxes on your income, for this) and the charity will have some reasonable expenses.  You can literally go door to door and raise money for your charity.  Special fundraising rules apply for example you CAN SPAM as long as you follow the CAN SPAM rules, and you can telemarket to people on the DNC (Do Not Call) list so long as you are raising money for your charity and not your business.  

    4) Go to food banks – get free food

    Food banks exist everywhere, at churches, schools, and privately funded too.  They’re all over America, and there’s no requirements to get food.  Just show up, and provide an ID.  If you don’t have ID, that’s ok.  They just don’t want people ‘abusing’ the system.  Beware that some of the dates of the food may be a little ‘over’ the due date.  Don’t let that scare you – it’s good for digestion.

    When all else fails – revert to the freeloader in you – checkout www.pleaseorderit.com/free

    With Trump in office being a Redneck can be FUN and PROFITABLE don’t let your preconceived notions or visions of trailer parks cloud your path toward Redneck Nirvana.

    “Everyone has a Redneck cousin” -Jimmy Buffet (redneck paraphrase “everybody has a cousin in Miami”)

  • Tomorrow's Vote In Italy Will Be A "Wide-Ranging F**k Off", And It's Just The Start…

    Submitted by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

    Tomorrow, December 4, Italy is holding a referendum that will determine the fate of the entire European Union.

    Donald Trump’s victory—which shocked Europe’s political and media elite—gives the populists backing the “No” side of Italy’s referendum the political rocket fuel they need for a virtually guaranteed win.

    That momentum will be all but impossible to reverse. Anti-elite sentiment is rising on both sides of the Atlantic. And I bet the global populist revolution will continue.

    If Italians buck the establishment—and it looks like they will—it will clear a path for a populist party to take power and for Italy to exit the euro.

    If that happens, the fallout will be catastrophic for global markets. The Financial Times recently put it this way:

    An Italian exit from the single currency would trigger the total collapse of the eurozone within a very short period.

    It would probably lead to the most violent economic shock in history, dwarfing the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008 and the 1929 Wall Street crash.

    If the FT is even partially right, we’re looking at a possible stock market crash of historic proportions. This is why we’re watching the December 4 referendum so closely.

    The referendum is meant to concentrate more power in Italy’s central government. On that point alone, everyone should oppose it. The centralization of power never leads to good things.

    A “Yes” vote is effectively a vote of confidence in the current pro-EU Italian establishment. This is what the global elite wants.

    A “No” vote is how the average Italian can give the finger to the faceless EU bureaucrats in Brussels, whom many blame—quite correctly—for their problems.

    Trump’s win has been a double whammy for Italy’s pro-EU establishment.

    First, it emboldens the populist forces fighting the referendum.

    Second, it humiliates and politically castrates Matteo Renzi, the current Italian prime minister. Renzi took a rare step when he openly endorsed Hillary Clinton. He was the only European leader to do so.

    As one of Renzi’s rivals said after Trump’s victory, “Matteo Renzi is politically finished from today, he’s a dead man walking.”

    Other Italian politicians are furious that he weakened Italy’s standing with the new Trump administration.

    It’s hard to see how Renzi could get himself out of the hole he’s dug.

    It Started as a Joke

    In 2007, Beppe Grillo, an Italian actor and comedian, launched Vaffanculo Day. “Vaffanculo” is Italian for “f*** off.”

    Grillo and his followers used V-Day to bluntly express their displeasure with Italian establishment politicians, using imagery from the movie V for Vendetta.

    Now, what started out as a joke has become Italy’s most popular political party…

    V-Day helped organize Italians frustrated with their political system. It gave birth to the Five Star Movement, Italy’s new populist political party.

    Grillo’s Five Star Movement—or M5S, its Italian acronym—is anti-globalist, anti-euro, and anti-establishment. It doesn’t neatly fall into the left–right political paradigm.

    According to the latest polls, M5S is now the most popular party in Italy. It won mayoral elections in Rome and Turin earlier this year.

    M5S is riding a wave of populist anger at entrenched political elites over economic stagnation. Italy has had virtually no productive growth since joining the eurozone in 1999.

    M5S blames Italy’s chronic lack of growth on the euro. A large plurality of Italians agrees.

    M5S has promised to hold a vote to leave the euro and return to Italy’s old currency, the lira, as soon as it’s in power. Under the current circumstances, it would probably pass.

    After the Brexit vote and Trump’s win, M5S has joyfully predicted that Renzi will be the next casualty in the global populist revolution.

    Grillo recently wrote:

    It's crazy. This is the explosion of an era. It's the apocalypse of the media, TV, the big newspapers, the intellectuals, the journalists… This is a wide-ranging F*** off. Trump has pulled off an incredible V-Day… There are similarities between this American story and the Movement.

    A “No” vote in the December 4 referendum means M5S could come to power in a matter of months.

    Melting Like a Gelato in the August Sun

    A populist tsunami is about to wash through Europe. It will drastically change the Continent’s political landscape in a way not seen since before World War II.

    This wave will flush away traditional “mainstream” parties and usher in anti-establishment populists who want to leave the European Union.

    It’s already hit the UK in the form of Brexit, killing David Cameron’s pro-EU government in the process.

    Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Slovenia, and Greece already have populist, Eurosceptic—or “non-mainstream”—parties in power.

    Italy is the next flashpoint.

    A “No” vote in Italy is virtually assured at this point.

    But it won’t be the end of the anti-elite surge. Voters in Europe’s biggest countries could soon throw out their “mainstream” parties in favor of populist and Eurosceptic alternatives.

    Here’s the rundown…

    Austria

    Austria is holding a presidential election, also on December 4. It’s actually a redo of an election held in May, where a populist candidate, Norbert Hofer of the Freedom Party, barely lost.

    Austrian courts found irregularities in the results and ordered a prompt new election. But when opinion polls showed the populist candidate in the lead, the government delayed the vote until December 4, giving a lame excuse about faulty adhesive on absentee ballots. Despite the foot-dragging, Mr. Hofer looks set to win the December 4 vote.

    France

    France has a presidential election next spring. There’s a chance that Marine Le Pen, leader of the Eurosceptic National Front party, will do better than many expect. After more than a decade of disappointment under presidents François Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy, French voters are clamoring for something different.

    Spain

    Spain recently re-elected incumbent Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. However, Spanish voters fled traditional political parties en masse for new populist upstarts Podemos and Ciudadanos. So Rajoy was unable to form a majority government.

    Rajoy now leads a severely weak minority government. The political power of the Spanish populist parties is only expected to grow.

    Germany

    Angela Merkel, the chancellor of Germany, embodies the European establishment more than any other politician. Her party suffered a series of stinging defeats in regional elections this year, mostly because of her signature lax immigration policies, which have flooded Germany with migrants.

    Merkel’s troubles have only helped the Alternative for Germany, a new populist party surging in popularity. The party could pose a real problem for Merkel in the 2017 federal elections.

    The Netherlands

    As the Netherlands approaches elections in March, Geert Wilders’s Party for Freedom, which advocates leaving the EU, is basically tied in opinion polls with the establishment parties.

    How to Profit from the Tsunami…

    As populist, Eurosceptic parties surge, the entire European Union is looking shakier by the day.

    One Italian politician correctly put it this way: “The euro is melting away like a gelato left out in the August sun.”

    Our thesis for the collapse of the EU not only stands… it’s getting stronger and stronger.

    There are potentially severe consequences in the currency and stock markets. We are approaching a global financial meltdown of historical proportions. It could strike America on December 4, 2016, as Italian voters decide the fate of the European Union itself.

    It could either wipe out a big part of your savings… or be the fortune-building opportunity of a lifetime.

    New York Times best-selling author Doug Casey and I just released an urgent video with all the details. Click here to watch it now.

  • A Very Concise Explanation Of Why The Democrats Lost (And Will Keep Losing)

    Via Jesse's Cafe Americain blog,

    "This whole 'red scare' thing has become so thoroughly ridiculous, so blatantly propagandist and overblown, so pervasively passed around by mainstream media outlets without serious investigation, so obviously picked up off a shelf in ad hoc convenience, and so completely hypocritical by the professional elite, that I am tempted to write it off and forget about it. But I should probably be deeply troubled for other reasons.

     

    It is a sign of the establishment going further off the deep end, and further dropping its pretenses. It is a sign of a desperate elite that will say anything, do anything, and risk everything to control the narrative and protect itself.

     

    We are descending into farce. Deeply dangerous farce."

     

    Reader M. M.

    This is a short video from Thomas Frank.  (I have included two more short videos that are optional.)

    Every pundit who is grinding their axes about the various forces that unjustly took the election from Hillary needs to listen to this.

    Thomas Frank is absolutely right. Everyone who had their eyes open could see this loss by the Democrats coming, or at the least a much closer race than expected.   Donald Trump certainly saw it, and used it for his advantage.

    And even now, the core political and entertainment establishment clearly is not accepting this, does not care in their cozy complacency.

    A good part of this is because of the credibility trap, and their sense of entitled superiority.

    If you don't believe this, watch the Democratic establishment mouthpiece channels like MSNBC almost any evening.

    I hate to bother you with yet another posting on this subject, but the context of the situation shows that the message needs to be repeated, and driven home in order to penetrate the echo chamber of the Beltway Bubble.

    The widely accepted attitude of the Wall Street Democrats was that the working middle class had 'no where else to go,' and so their interests could be sacrificed, time and again. They chose consciously to spend their energy in the pursuit of specialized big money interests.

    And they were richly rewarded with huge sums of campaign donations, personal speaking 'repayments,' and sinecures during the out-of-office periods that the big money donors could provide.

    The courtiers in the media and big money donors around the world are very put out that their claim checks for the spoils of a Hillary victory were invalidated.  Their outrage and disappointment is remarkable, as if they have somehow been cheated of their due, their turn at the pig sty of public looting.

    They blame racism, the Russians, sexism, Bernie bros, hackers, the 'deplorables' in a bit of an ironic twist on the Romney moment, the electoral college, and even the roots of democratic process itself.

    They and their strategy failed. Spectacularly.

    But they cannot fail, because they are so exceptional. And there is the work to return to the real world for them, in overcoming themselves and their selfish disappointment and cognitive dissonance.

    I have been very clear that I was no supporter of Trump, and could not vote for him in good conscience under almost any circumstances I could imagine.

    But like so many others I could not in good conscience comfortably pick the 'lesser of two evils' in this case, especially after the serial betrayals of the reforms, the reforms he promised and for which he was elected, that we had at the hands of Obama and his party.   The nomination of Hillary was an 'in your face' gesture to the people by the worst of the embedded and outdated elements of a inwardly focused party in its decline.

    The same and worse could be said of the Republicans, but that is another story.  They just were not able to ruthlessly suppress their insurgents as had the DNC.  And if you do not realize that they did so, then you are blinded by your ambitions and should step aside.

    If anything, the antics of the DNC during these primaries showed that their callous disregard for the broader economic interests the people, and the hypocrisy which their self interests enabled, knew no bounds.

    Think of the arrogance of their mindset— vote for our candidate because she is not good, but less bad than the other fellow, and once again you really have no other choice.

    And they wonder why they were so soundly rejected.

    The final refuge of the exceptionally arrogant is to dismiss those who have rejected them, and expect them to come crawling back, asking for another chance.

    This is certainly preferable to admitting that they had the choice of the people and the winning candidate in their own ranks, and defeated him because they could, because it felt good to exercise power and influence once again, especially when it served their own selfish ambitions.

    And in doing so, they defeated themselves.

    But perhaps the people will not submit again, and choose whatever is offered, the less worse of a bad deal.

    Perhaps the political class will have to eventually let go of their delusory arrogance, and face the work, and the pain, of remaking themselves into what they and their party had once represented:  a real constructive and progressive choice, and not just another flavor of less abusive but equally audacious oligarchy.

    For in truth, it is still just another form of arrogant oligarchy that serves itself, albeit under the fig leaf of a rationale of 'public service' in constructing a false moral high ground, that is an inch above the swamp.

    And if they have the time for it, here are two more short videos that need to penetrate the collective consciousness of the party in order for meaningful progress to occur.

  • "Meanwhile In Europe…" – The Big Day Arrives

    Less than a month after the “shocking” election of Donald Trump as US president, the world prepares for another day of political shockwaves, this time out of Europe, when on Sunday all eyes will be on Italy and, to a slightly lesser extent, Austria.

    Or, as Bank of America puts it “Meanwhile in Europe…”

    As we have previewed on various occasions (most recently in Friday’s extensive “Everything You Need To Know About The Italian Referendum & Should Be Afraid To Ask“), in a few short hours, Italy will vote on a constitutional reform referendum. While we urge readers to skim the in depth “walk thru“, here is a simplified version of what happens after the likely “No” vote tomorrow.

    The main concern in the markets – which has manifested itself in both the European currency, its vol structure, as well as Italian bond yields – is that a strong “No” vote will cause Prime Minister Renzi to resign, leading to political instability in Italy. Furthermore, a “No” vote is expected to kill a long-running attempt to rescue Italy’s third largest and oldest bank, Monte dei Paschi, which has been desperate for a private sector bailout ever since it failed this summer’s ECB stress test to avoid broader banking sector contagion; a failure of Monte Paschi will likely spark a fresh eurozone banking crisis, and prompt the ECB to get involved again (as it warned it would do), in a redux of what happened after the Brexit vote.

    Also on Sunday, there is also a presidential election in Austria. A victory by the right-wing candidate, Norbert Hofer, would raise concerns about EU fragmentation because his party has advocated a referendum on EU membership. His victory would also raise concerns about a similar outcome in the French elections in May, and many other upcoming European elections as shown in the calendar at the bottom of this page:

    However, while the Austrian vote will again be down to the wire – and since this time there won’t be any Brussels-endorsed “widespread voting fraud“, Norbert Hofer is assured to win – the key event will be the Italian vote. Here is what to expect in terms of timing:

    • Provisional turnout results from 7pm GMT (2pm ET)
    • Exit polls then expected around 10pm GMT on Sunday night (5pm ET)
    • First projections by Italian pollsters based on counted votes at around 10.45pm GMT (5:45pm ET)
    • Final result will come in around 2am on Monday (9:00pm ET)

    In the highly improbably event the “Yes” vote wins, Deutsche Bank analysts write that a rebound in the Italian equity market should be largely restricted to financial stocks. Although the FTSE MIB is trading at a 15% discount relative to its 10-year average vs. Europe, valuations look substantially less attractive once banks are excluded from the index. The relative P/E of the FTSE MIB ex banks is trading in line with its long-term average vs. Europe ex banks. Several Italian sectors are even trading at a premium vs. their European peers, showing no signs yet of a spillover of banking sector risks.

    That may change in just a few hours.

    The biggest question from tomorrow’s vote, is what happens to Italian PM Renzi should he lose the vote, and as France 24 reports, if voters reject Renzi’s plan to streamline parliament, the centre-left leader has said he will step down.

    The self-styled outsider in a hurry to shake up Italy finds himself on the inside, a target for those who say he has not been quick enough in fixing long-standing problems. For those unfamiliar, here is a brief snapshot of Renzi’s approach, and political options:

    After rapid rise, Italy’s Renzi braced for fall

     

    Renzi was just 39 when he came to power via an internal party coup in February 2014. With his penchant for retro sunglasses, open-necked shirts and jeans, the former mayor of Florence was hailed at the time as a premier for the smartphone generation. But the breath of fresh air is now in danger of being blown away by rival young Turks from populist and far right opposition parties trying to force him out.

     

    After 1,000 days in office, Renzi, now 41, boasted last month of having steered the economy out of recession, got Italians spending again and improved public finances. He has also had significant political victories: a controversial Jobs Act passed, election rules rewritten and his candidate, Sergio Mattarella, installed as president.

     

    As his Twitter follower numbers rose, so too did his international profile. Renzi was feted for his reform efforts by US President Barack Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. “Matteo has the right approach and it is beginning to show results,” Obama said just before treating Renzi and his school teacher wife Agnese to the last official White House dinner of his administration in October.

    But many Italian voters do not share Obama’s optimism. As the recovery has struggled to gain traction — leaving unemployment stubbornly high, particularly among young people — Renzi’s ratings have slipped.

     

    The Jobs Act, which eased hiring and firing, made him business friends but alienated trade unions and the left. A bullish style that was once seen as energetic has come to be viewed by some as high-handed, including by some grandees of his own party. Former Prime Minister Massimo d’Alema, a fervent critic of Renzi’s constitutional proposals, described his successor to the New York Times as a Twitter-obsessed “oaf”. The decline in Renzi’s popularity is relative however. Polls suggest the Democratic Party, under his leadership, would top an election held tomorrow, albeit only just.

     

    Born on January 11, 1975 in Florence, Renzi studied law and took his first steps in politics as a teenage campaign volunteer for future prime minister and European Commission chief Romano Prodi. By 26 he was a full-time organiser for La Margherita (The Daisy), a short-lived centre-left party.

     

    He was only 29 when he became the leader of the province of Florence in 2004, establishing a power base that enabled him to go on to become mayor in 2009 and prime minister five years later. But for a brief spell in his early 20s working for the family advertising business, politics is all he has done and friends say he would be loath to give it up, despite his protestations to the contrary.

    Even if has to make way as premier, he is not expected to give up the party leadership.

    In short, Renzi is still very young, and a failure tomorrow followed by a resignation, means merely a detour for the career politican, not an end. The bigger question, however, is whether Italy is stable enough and its banks solid enough to survive a politidal vacuum wthout a “technocratic” government ready to step in and fill the void. The answer may be revealed as soon as Sunday night when the Euro opens for trading.

    * * *

    There is more to come.

    As Bank of America notes, the common thread in all of these stories is that politics is driving economic outcomes. This dynamic will not change anytime soon, and BofA notes that it is “particularly concerned about the  drift toward protectionism.” The bank notes that the number of trade restrictions globally has already picked up. Data from Global Trade Alert, a group of academic economists, shows an increase in the number of protectionist measures starting in 2012 and accelerating sharply in 2015. These include not just tariffs and quotas, but a range of policies that give  preference to domestic over foreign products.

    An Italian “No” vote simply accelerate the global backlash against globalization, and lead to even more trade protectionist measures. But what is the most likely outcome, is that when the “No” vote wins (despite the endorsement of The Economist, which has gotten the outcome of every major political event this year wrong), it will only push the case for the anti-establishment vote in more European countries, until eventually Europe’s populist forces stretch the European experiment so thin, that the Eurozone itself – an experiment which from day one catered to corporate interests and an established political oligarchy – will collapse under the weight of its own discontents.

    For now, we await the surge in volatility that will emerge tomorrow afternoon, only to mysteriously disappear as every central bank around the globe engages in another BTFD orgy, sending risk assets higher even as the rapidly “isolating” world teeters on the verge of globalized collapse.

  • Trump's Appointments – What Do They Mean?

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    Before I give an explanation, let’s be sure we all know what an explanation is. An explanation is not a justification. The collapse of education in the US is so severe that many Americans, especially younger ones, cannot tell the difference between an explanation and a defense, justification, or apology for what they regard as a guilty person or party. If an explanation is not damning or sufficiently damning of what they want damned, the explanation is interpreted as an excuse for the object of their scorn. In America, reason and objective analysis have taken a backseat to emotion.

    We do not know what the appointments mean except, as Trump discovered once he confronted the task of forming a government, that there is no one but insiders to appoint. For the most part that is correct. Outsiders are a poor match for insiders who tend to eat them alive. Ronald Reagan’s California crew were a poor match for George H.W. Bush’s insiders. The Reagan part of the government had a hell of a time delivering results that Reagan wanted.

    Another limit on a president’s ability to form a government is Senate confirmation of presidential appointees. Whereas Congress is in Republican hands, Congress remains in the hands of special interests who will protect their agendas from hostile potential appointees. Therefore, although Trump does not face partisan opposition from Congress, he faces the power of special interests that fund congressional political campaigns.

    When the White House announced my appointment as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, Republican Senator Bob Dole put a hold on my appointment. Why? Dole had presidential ambitions, and he saw the rising star of Republican Representative Jack Kemp as a potential obstacle. As I had written the Kemp-Roth bill that had become Reagan’s economic policy, Dole regarded me in the Treasury as a one-up for Kemp. So, you see, all sorts of motives can plague a president’s ability to form a government.

    With Trump under heavy attack prior to his inauguration, he cannot afford drawn out confirmation fights and defeats.

    Does Trump’s choice of Steve Mnuchin as Treasury Secretary mean that Goldman Sachs will again be in charge of US economic policy? Possibly, but we do not know. We will have to wait and see. Mnuchin left Goldman Sachs 14 years ago. He has been making movies in Hollywood and started his own investment firm. Many people have worked for Goldman Sachs and the New York Banks who have become devastating critics of the banks. Read Nomi Prins’ books and visit Pam Martens website, Wall Street on Parade. My sometimes coauthor Dave Kranzler is a former Wall Streeter.

    Commentators are jumping to conclusions based on appointees past associations. Mnuchin was an early Trump supporter and chairman of Trump’s finance campaign. He has Wall Street and investment experience. He should be an easy confirmation. For a president-elect under attack this is important.

    Will Mnuchin suppport Trump’s goal of bringing middle class jobs back to America? Is Trump himself sincere? We do not know.

    What we do know is that Trump attacked the fake “free trade” agreements that have stripped America of middle class jobs just as did Pat Buchanan and Ross Perot. We know that the Clintons made their fortune as agents of the One Percent, the only ones who have profited from the offshoring of American jobs. Trump’s fortune is not based on jobs offshoring.

    Not every billionaire is an oligarch. Trump’s relation to the financial sector is one as a debtor. No doubt Trump and the banks have had unsatisfactory relationships. And Trump says he is a person who enjoys revenge.

    What about the hot-headed generals announced as National Security Advisor and Secretary of Defense? Both seem to be death on Iran, which is stupid and unfortunate. However, keep in mind that Gen. Flynn is the one who blew the whistle on the Obama regime for rejecting the advice of the DIA and sending ISIS to overthrow Assad. Flynn said that ISIS was a “willful decision” of the Obama administration, not some unexpected event.

    And keep in mind that Gen. Mattis is the one who told Trump that torture does not work, which caused Trump to back off his endorsement of torture.

    So both of these generals, as bad as they may be, are an improvement on what came before. Both have shown independence from the neoconservative line that supports ISIS and torture.

    Keep in mind also that there are two kinds of insiders. Some represent the agendas of special interests; others go with the flow because they enjoy participating in the affairs of the nation. Those who don’t go with the flow are eliminated from participating.

    Goldman Sachs is a good place to get rich. That Mnuchin left 14 years ago could mean that he was not a good match for Goldman Sachs, that they did not like him or he did not like them. That Flynn and Mattis have taken independent positions on ISIS and torture suggests that they are mavericks. All three of these appointees seem to be strong and confident individuals who know the terrain, which is the kind of people a president needs if he is to accomplish anything.

    The problem with beating up on an administration before it exists and has a record is that the result can be that the administration becomes deaf to all criticism. It is much better to give the new president a chance and to hold his feet to the fire on the main issues.

    Trump alone among all the presidential candidates said that he saw no point in fomenting conflict with Russia. Trump alone questioned NATO’s continued existence 25 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

    Trump alone said that he would work to bring middle class jobs back to America.

    And Trump said that he would enforce immigration laws. Is this racism or is this a defense of citizenship? How is the US a country if there is no difference between illegal aliens and citizens?

    Commentators of all stripes are making a mistake to damn in advance the only government that campaigned on peace with Russia, restoring middle class jobs, and respect for the country’s borders. We should seize on these promises and hold the Trump administration to them. We should also work to make Trump aware of the serious adverse consequences of environmental degradation.

    Who is blowing these opportunities? Trump? Mnuchin? Flynn? Mattis?

    Or us?

    The more Trump is criticized, the easier it is for the neoconservatives to offer their support and enter the administration. To date he has not appointed one, but you can bet your life that Israel is lobbying hard for the neocons. The neocons still reign in the media, the think tanks, university departments of foreign affairs, and the foreign policy community. They are an ever present danger.

    Trump’s personality means that he is likely to see more reward in being the president who reverses American decline than in using the presidency to augment his personal fortune. Therefore, there is some hope for change occuring from the top rather than originating in the streets of bloody revolution. By the time Americans reach the revolutionary stage of awareness the police state is likely to be too strong for them.

    So let’s give the Trump administration a chance. We can turn on him after he sells us out.

  • A Visual History Of Population In America

    You’ve likely seen the population density map of the United States in one form or another. A lot of people per square mile reside in big cities, fewer people reside in suburban areas, and a lot fewer people reside in rural areas.

    But as FlowingData.com’s Nathan Yau explains, cities weren’t always cities though. Rural wasn’t always rural. If you look at people per square mile over a couple of centuries, you get a better idea of how the country developed.

    The animated map above shows population density by decade, going back to 1790 and up to recent estimates for 2015. The time in between each time period represents a smoothed transition. This is approximate, but it gives a better idea of how the distribution of population changed.

    As you watch, keep in mind that the map is based on data that was available and that it only represents the United States population.

    This is especially notable during the first century. No data shows in much of the country, the estimates are spotty in many territories, and there were people who lived in the blanked out areas before newcomers settled.

  • Did The Market Just Flash A Hindenburg Omen Warning?

    Amid the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune in the stock, bond, and commodity markets this week, a few 'rotten' things began to emerge. With major indices diverging notably, new highs and new lows soaring, and breadth deteriorating, analysts noted the re-awakening of The Hindenburg Omen signal…

    As John Hussman previously wrote, when we think of market “internals,” the number of new highs and new lows can contribute useful information. To expand on the vocabulary we use to talk about internals, “leadership” typically refers to the number of stocks achieving new highs and new lows; “breadth” typically refers to the number of stocks advancing versus declining in a given day or week; and “participation” typically refers to the percentage of stocks that are advancing or declining in tandem with the major indices.

    The original basis for the Hindenburg signal traces back to the “high-low logic index” that Norm Fosback created in the 1970’s. Jim Miekka introduced the Hindenburg as a daily rather than weekly measure, Kennedy Gammage gave it the ominous name, and Peter Eliades later added several criteria to reduce the noise of one-off signals, requiring additional confirmation that amounts to a requirement that more than one signal must emerge in the context of an advancing market with weakening breadth.

    And this week saw renowned technician Tom McClellan declare a Hindenburg Omen had struck

     

    As we discussed over 6 years ago, the dreaded Hindenburg Omen is easily the most feared technical pattern in all of chartism (for the bullishly inclined). Those who know what it is, tend to have an atavistic reaction to its mere mention. Those who do not, can catch up on its implications courtesy of Wikipedia, but in a nutshell: "The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis that attempts to predict a forthcoming stock market crash. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster of May 6th 1937, during which the German zeppelin was destroyed in a sudden conflagration." Granted, the Hindenburg Omen is not a guarantee of a crash, and the five criteria that must be met for a Hindenburg trigger typically need to reoccur within 36 days for reconfirmation. Yet the statistics are startling: "Looking back at historical data, the probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was 77%, and usually takes place within the next forty-days."

    As a reminder, the 5 criteria of the Omen are as follows:

    1. That the daily number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of new 52 Week Lows must both be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day.
    2. That the smaller of these numbers is greater than or equal to 69 (68.772 is 2.2% of 3126). This is not a rule but more like a checksum. This condition is a function of the 2.2% of the total issues.
    3. That the NYSE 10 Week moving average is rising.
    4. That the McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day.
    5. That new 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week Lows (however it is fine for new 52 Week Lows to be more than double new 52 Week Highs). This condition is absolutely mandatory.

    The last Hindenburg Omen occurred as the markets began to roll over in June 2015 (and did not end well) although that had followed a series of false alerts in the 2013 QE-enthused melt-up.

     

    However, while McClellan called the Hindenburg, it appears it may have fallen just short…

    Checking the rules:

    1: YES – see chart above (red and green lines BOTH above the blue)

    2: YES – 74 > 69

    3: YES – 10628 to 10631 (rising)

    4: YES – McClellan Oscillator -5.85 (below 0)

    5: NO – 236 New Highs is more than double the 74 New Lows

    And so from the most strict definition, The Hindenburg Omen did not strike this week…

    But it's close and as a reminder, while no Hindenburg flashed, Dana Lyons noted both the number of New Highs and New Lows set 3-month highs just over a week ago. If that sounds odd, it is. In fact, it was only the 2nd day ever in which each set a 3-month high. And since 1970, only 18 prior days saw New Highs and New Lows set as much as a 1-month high.

    image

     

    Something which has not boded well in the past…

    image

    As the table shows, the return in the S&P 500 has been negative 2 months after all 11 occurrences. And it wasn’t just the 2-month period that was poor. Median returns are negative across nearly all time frames from 1 week to 2 years. The 2-year result is perhaps the most eye-opening after the 2-month. The market is not typically down over a 2-year period so to see 7 of the 8 instances lower is a rare result.

    What causes the elevated numbers of New Highs and New Lows? And why would it necessarily be a negative for the stock market? We’re not sure, and we don’t really care. We’re never too concerned with the “why’s” when it comes to the markets. All we care about is what is happening. And for whatever reason, the market has been especially weak – and consistently so – following the occurrence of lots of New Highs and Lows. That is a legitimate red flag currently, in our view.

  • Obama TV: Is Obama Planning A "Fake News" Outlet Of His Own?

    After spending the past month blaming Hillary’s loss on the rampant spread of “fake news,” because choosing a failed candidate subject to numerous active federal criminal investigations and/or Obama’s failed policies couldn’t possibly be to blame, Mic is reporting that Obama is contemplating starting a propaganda machine media company of his own after leaving the White House.  

    President Barack Obama has been discussing a post-presidential career in digital media and is considering launching his own media company, according to multiple sources who spoke on background because they were not authorized to speak for the president.

     

    Obama considers media to be a central focus of his next chapter, these sources say, though exactly what form that will take — a show streaming on Netflix, a web series on a comedy site or something else — remains unclear. Obama has gone so far as to discuss launching his own media company, according to one source with knowledge of the matter, although he has reportedly cooled on the idea of late.

     

    According to another source, Obama met privately with Facebook CEO and co-founder Mark Zuckerberg in Lima, Peru, on the sidelines of the recent APEC summit to discuss the matter.

     

    While Obama has been on a crusade against “fake news” of late, we’re not exactly sure how adding yet another MSNBC substitute to the media arm of the democratic party will change anything in a meaningful way.  While Obama continues to “rethink his storytelling,” he and other democrats simply continue to prove that they’ve learned absolutely nothing from the 2016 election.  The entire election was a rejection of “storytelling” in favor of action, it was a rejection of establishment politicians, like Obama, who have proven time and again that, while they’re great at delivering emotional speeches on “Hope and Change,” they are completely void of any substance beyond their rhetoric. 

    When Rolling Stone asked the president about his future plans, Obama said he would begin “organizing my presidential center,” where a top subject would be, “How do we rethink our storytelling, the messaging and the use of technology and digital media, so that we can make a persuasive case across the country?”

     

    In recent days — even before Trump’s surprising victory — Obama also mused openly about what he views as the dangerous state of media and his desire to play a role in fixing it. According to the New Yorker, Obama apparently obsessed over a BuzzFeed story that documented how more than 100 pro-Trump websites peddling fake news reports had originated in one small Macedonian town. The president worried aloud that the way stories are displayed on various platforms “means everything is true and nothing is true” and that “an explanation of climate change from a Nobel Prize-winning physicist looks exactly the same on your Facebook page as the denial of climate change by somebody on the Koch brothers’ payroll.”

     

    Obama has been outspoken in recent days about the faux news phenomenon, arguing that the rise of conspiracy theories and the easy propagation of fake stories has made it difficult to establish basic facts to frame a debate. “And now we just don’t have that,” he told New Yorker editor David Remnick.

    Of course, if true an Obama media company would threaten a long-standing tradition of former Presidents withholding criticism of their successors. 

    Depending on what form it takes, a hard dive into media could also put Obama at odds with presidential precedent. For decades, former presidents have followed a tradition of remaining quiet about their successors in public. During his recent visit to Peru, Obama said he would uphold that convention after leaving office, but also hinted he might speak out when he feels necessary. “If there are issues that have less to do with the specifics of some legislative proposal or battle or go to core questions about our values and ideals, and if I think that it’s necessary or helpful for me to defend those ideals, I’ll examine it when it comes,” Obama told reporters.

    Remember when Obama scolded Republicans with his “Elections have consequences. Tough luck, you lost. Get over it” line.  We guess that only applies when his team wins.

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Today’s News 3rd December 2016

  • Official Washington's "Info-Wars"

    Authored by William Blum, originally posted at Strategic-Culture.org,

    On November 16, at a State Department press briefing, department spokesperson John Kirby was having one of his frequent adversarial dialogues with Gayane Chichakyan, a reporter for RT (Russia Today); this time concerning U.S. charges of Russia bombing hospitals in Syria and blocking the U.N. from delivering aid to the trapped population.

    When Chichakyan asked for some detail about these charges, Kirby replied: “Why don’t you ask your defense ministry?”

    GC: Do you – can you give any specific information on when Russia or the Syrian Government blocked the UN from delivering aid? Just any specific information.

     

    KIRBY: There hasn’t been any aid delivered in the last month.

     

    GC: And you believe it was blocked exclusively by Russia and the Syrian Government?

     

    KIRBY: There’s no question in our mind that the obstruction is coming from the regime and from Russia. No question at all.…

     

    MATTHEW LEE (Associated Press): Let me –- hold on, just let me say: Please be careful about saying “your defense minister” and things like that. I mean, she’s a journalist just like the rest of us are, so it’s -– she’s asking pointed questions, but they’re not –

     

    KIRBY: From a state-owned -– from a state-owned –

     

    LEE: But they’re not –

     

    KIRBY: From a state-owned outlet, Matt.

     

    LEE: But they’re not –

     

    KIRBY: From a state-owned outlet that’s not independent.

     

    LEE: The questions that she’s asking are not out of line.

     

    KIRBY: I didn’t say the questions were out of line…

     

    KIRBY: I’m sorry, but I’m not going to put Russia Today on the same level with the rest of you who are representing independent media outlets.

    One has to wonder if State Department spokesperson Kirby knows that in 2011 Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, speaking about RT, declared: “The Russians have opened an English-language network. I’ve seen it in a few countries, and it is quite instructive.”

    I also wonder how Mr. Kirby deals with reporters from the BBC, a STATE-OWNED television and radio entity in the U.K., broadcasting in the U.S. and all around the world.

    Or the state-owned Australian Broadcasting Corporation, described by Wikipedia as follows: “The corporation provides television, radio, online and mobile services throughout metropolitan and regional Australia, as well as overseas… and is well regarded for quality and reliability as well as for offering educational and cultural programming that the commercial sector would be unlikely to supply on its own.”

    There’s also Radio Free Europe, Radio Free Asia, Radio Liberty (Central/Eastern Europe), and Radio Marti (Cuba); all (U.S.) state-owned, none “independent”, but all deemed worthy enough by the United States to feed to the world.

    And let’s not forget what Americans have at home: PBS (Public Broadcasting Service) and NPR (National Public Radio), which would have a near-impossible time surviving without large federal government grants. How independent does this leave them? Has either broadcaster ever unequivocally opposed a modern American war? There’s good reason NPR has long been known as National Pentagon Radio. But it’s part of American media’s ideology to pretend that it doesn’t have any ideology.

    As to the non-state American media … There are about 1,400 daily newspapers in the United States. Can you name a single paper, or a single TV network, that was unequivocally opposed to the American wars carried out against Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Yugoslavia, Panama, Grenada, and Vietnam while they were happening, or shortly thereafter? Or even opposed to any two of these seven wars? How about one?

    In 1968, six years into the Vietnam War, the Boston Globe (Feb. 18, 1968) surveyed the editorial positions of 39 leading U.S. papers concerning the war and found that “none advocated a pull-out.” Has the phrase “invasion of Vietnam” ever appeared in the U.S. mainstream media?

    In 2003, leading cable station MSNBC took the much-admired Phil Donahue off the air because of his opposition to the calls for war in Iraq. Mr. Kirby would undoubtedly call MSNBC “independent.”

    If the American mainstream media were officially state-controlled, would they look or sound significantly different when it comes to U.S. foreign policy?

    New Cold War Propaganda

    On Nov. 25, the Washington Post ran an article entitled: “Research ties ‘fake news’ to Russia.” It’s all about how sources in Russia are flooding American media and the Internet with phony stories designed as “part of a broadly effective strategy of sowing distrust in U.S. democracy and its leaders.”

    The Washington Post building in downtown Washington, D.C. (Photo credit: Washington Post)

    The Washington Post building in downtown Washington, D.C. (Photo credit: Washington Post)

    “The sophistication of the Russian tactics,” the article says, “may complicate efforts by Facebook and Google to crack down on ‘fake news’.”

    The Post states that the Russian tactics included “penetrating the computers of election officials in several states and releasing troves of hacked emails that embarrassed Clinton in the final months of her campaign.” (Heretofore this had been credited to Wikileaks.)

    The story is simply bursting with anti-Russian references:

    • –An online magazine header – “Trolling for Trump: How Russia Is Trying to Destroy Our Democracy.”
    • –“the startling reach and effectiveness of Russian propaganda campaigns.”
    • –“more than 200 websites as routine peddlers of Russian propaganda during the election season.”
    • –“stories planted or promoted by the disinformation campaign were viewed more than 213 million times.”
    • –“The Russian campaign during this election season … worked by harnessing the online world’s fascination with ‘buzzy’ content that is surprising and emotionally potent, and tracks with popular conspiracy theories about how secret forces dictate world events.”
    • –“Russian-backed phony news to outcompete traditional news organizations for audience”
    • –“They use our technologies and values against us to sow doubt. It’s starting to undermine our democratic system.”
    • –“Russian propaganda operations also worked to promote the ‘Brexit’ departure of Britain from the European Union.”
    • –“Some of these stories originated with RT and Sputnik, state-funded Russian information services that mimic the style and tone of independent news organizations yet sometimes include false and misleading stories in their reports.”
    • –“a variety of other false stories — fake reports of a coup launched at Incirlik Air Base in Turkey and stories about how the United States was going to conduct a military attack and blame it on Russia”

    A former U.S. ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul, is quoted saying he was “struck by the overt support that Sputnik expressed for Trump during the campaign, even using the #CrookedHillary hashtag pushed by the candidate.” McFaul said Russian propaganda typically is aimed at weakening opponents and critics.

    “They don’t try to win the argument. It’s to make everything seem relative. It’s kind of an appeal to cynicism.” [Cynicism? Heavens! What will those Moscow fascists/communists think of next?]

    The Post did, however, include the following: “RT disputed the findings of the researchers in an e-mail on Friday, saying it played no role in producing or amplifying any fake news stories related to the U.S. election.” RT was quoted: “It is the height of irony that an article about ‘fake news’ is built on false, unsubstantiated claims. RT adamantly rejects any and all claims and insinuations that the network has originated even a single ‘fake story’ related to the US election.”

    It must be noted that the Washington Post article fails to provide a single example showing how the actual facts of a specific news event were rewritten or distorted by a Russian agency to produce a news event with a contrary political message.

    What then lies behind such blatant anti-Russian propaganda? In the new Cold War such a question requires no answer. The new Cold War by definition exists to discredit Russia simply because it stands in the way of American world domination. In the new Cold War, the political spectrum in the mainstream media runs the gamut from A to B.

  • Chinese Developers Rethink U.S. Real Estate Projects: "I See Danger…U.S. Real Estate Is Peaking"

    For months we’ve been warning that real estate markets in NYC and San Francisco, among others, are getting ready to rollover as the market is about to be flooded with new supply of luxury apartments (see here and here).  Real estate in both markets are just starting to show signs of cracking as the apartments sales cycle is getting stretched out and pricing growth has stalled. 

    Now, per an article from the Wall Street Journal, wealthy Chinese real estate investors are admitting that the jig is up in large cities like New York and are running for the hills.  With a substantial amount of capacity expected to come online over the next several quarters and a growth cycle that is entering its 8th year, one Chinese real estate investor admits “you get a sense now that it’s peaking.”

    Swelling supply of high-end New York condominiums could result in losses for some Chinese developers, analysts said. A push to partner with U.S. developers on other projects, meanwhile, has brought unexpected legal spats and other delays.

     

    “I see a danger in the real-estate market in the U.S.,” said John Liang, Xinyuan Real Estate’s managing director of U.S. operations. “With its seven- to eight-year cycle, you get a sense now that it’s peaking.” He added that he sees value in middle-tier residential properties in Manhattan and Queens.

     

    “Right now the prices are really high,” said Zhang Xin, chief executive of Soho China, whose family invested in a stake in Manhattan’s General Motors Building in 2013. “I would be very cautious if I were to make a large investment in New York’s real estate today.”

    NYC

     

    Of course, Manhattan isn’t the only Burrough experiencing a supply glut.  Forest City Realty was just forced to take a $300mm impairment charge on a joint venture with a Shanghai-based development company after “unprecedented rental supply in downtown Brooklyn” forced the copanies to delay development.

    CL Investment, which has three other high-end residential projects in Manhattan, plans to keep the office space as part of efforts to diversify, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

     

    In Brooklyn, N.Y., a deal between Shanghai-based, state-owned conglomerate Greenland Holding Group and Forest City Realty Trust on a 22-acre, 15-building mixed-use project in various stages of construction is facing stiff headwinds.

     

    Forest City earlier this month said it took a $307.6 million impairment charge for the project, called Pacific Park Brooklyn, and said it plans “to delay future vertical development.”

     

    “We revised the schedule due to a number of factors, including almost unprecedented concentrations of new rental supply in downtown Brooklyn, which will take time for the market to absorb,” said Forest City CEO David LaRue.

    Just to add insult to injury, the softening real estate market is coming just as China is once again looking to tighten rules on capital investments outside of China. 

    The headwinds come at a time when Beijing once again is planning to tighten its rules on Chinese investment capital leaving the country.

     

    The Chinese State Council is expected to soon announce new reviews of foreign acquisitions of $10 billion or more and property investments by state-owned firms of more than $1 billion, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter and documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

     

    Total Chinese direct investment in U.S. real-estate and hospitality assets is nearly $12.6 billion, accounting for nearly a fifth of total Chinese investment in the U.S. since 1990, according to a recent report from the Rhodium Group and the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations. Most of the activity has taken place since 2010 and is concentrated in areas such as New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco.

    Of course, no matter what kind of capital controls are put in place, just like the Vancouver and Sydney real estate markets, we suspect that when Chinese money needs to be laundered, people will find a way.  The only question is now that yet another bubble has run its course, where subsequent bubbles will emerge.

    * * *

    For those who missed it, below is what we recently wrote after 3Q16 apartment closings plunged 18.6% in NYC.

    New York City apartment owners should take note of the latest 3Q16 “Elliman Report” on Manhattan real estate sales because the market looks to be in free fall.  In fact, the number of apartment closings plunged 18.6% YoY while apartments sat on the market an average of 8.2% longer.  Inventory also spiked with re-sale inventory up 8.2% YoY and new development inventory up a massive 27.2%.   

    The number of re-sales has fallen year over year in each of the last four quarters at an increasing rate.  Listing inventory reflected significant differences in the rate of growth between re-sale and new development.  Re-sale inventory expanded 8.2% to 5,290 while new development inventory surged 27.2% to 973 respectively from the same period a year ago.

    Median sales prices did increase YoY by 7.6% but collapsed QoQ despite a massive surge in pricing on the luxury end of the market.

    NYC Real Estate

     

    The re-sale market looks even more bleak, on a standalone basis, as the overall numbers above are skewed by sales of super-luxury new development units.  The number of re-sale closings collapsed over 20% YoY while days on the market increased 7.5%

    NYC Real Estate

     

    All segments of the market exhibited volume weakness with co-op sales down 17.1% YoY on a 14.1% increase in listing days and a modest 1.4% increase in median sales price.

    NYC Real Estate

     

    Condo sales declined 20.1% YoY on a 2.4% increase in listing days and a 6.7% increase in median sales price.  Meanwhile, condo inventory rose over 15%.

    NYC Real Estate

     

    And, of course, the luxury market seemed to hold up the best in 3Q with volumes still weak at -18.6% but median pricing up 23.9% and listing inventory down YoY.

    NYC Real Estate

     

    In conclusion, the lesson seems to be that the marginal New York City buyer has been priced out of the market (volume down 20%) while sellers have not yet accepted that the bubble has burst deciding instead to maintain listing prices while letting their apartments sit on the market longer amid growing inventory levels.  Meanwhile, the luxury market is the only segment that seems to be holding up which only serves to prove that Chinese billionaires still have cash they would like to hide in the U.S.

  • Obama Supports Forcing Women To Register For Military Draft

    Submitted by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,

    Continuing the debate over a massive expansion of the Selective Service, the White House today announced that President Obama is in favor of expanding registration for the military draft to include all women when they turn 18.

    "As old barriers for military service are being removed, the administration supports — as a logical next step — women registering for the Selective Service," said Ned Price, a spokesman for Obama's National Security Council.

     

    The White House had previously expressed neutrality on the controversy, but took a position in a statement to USA TODAY on Thursday.

     

    Under current law, women can volunteer to serve in the military but aren't required to register for the draft. All adult men must register within 30 days of their 18th birthday.

    The announcement comes ahead of a planned House vote on a bill to study the expansion of the military draft, or to potentially eliminate the Selective Service outright. The White House has repeatedly insisted they have no plans to bring the draft back, but want to force everyone to register anyhow to “foster a sense of public service.”

    The measure had roiled social conservatives, who decried it as another step toward the blurring of gender lines akin to allowing transgender people to use public lavatories and locker rooms. Rep. Pete Sessions, R-Texas, spoke for a number of Republicans when he described the provision as "coercing America's daughters" into draft registration.

     

    But proponents of including women in the draft pool viewed the requirement as a sensible step toward gender equality. They pointed to the Pentagon's decision last year to open all front-line combat jobs to women as removing any justification for gender restrictions on registration.

    The administration opened all combat roles to women, and officials say they believe expanding the registration system is a “logical next step,” ensuring “gender equality” in forcing the public to register for potential conscription in future wars.

    Though there is some call from some in Congress to do away with the Selective Service system entirely as an unused relic of the past, there appears to be considerable support for keeping it in place despite its practical uselessness, simply on the grounds that it doesn’t cost that much.

    The Selective Service system was eliminated by President Ford in 1975, two years after the last conscription lottery. President Carter brought the system back in 1980 as part of a show of hostility toward the Soviet Union over the invasion of Afghanistan. The system has remained in place ever since, even though the Soviet occupation ended, the Soviet Union fell, and the US has been occupying Afghanistan themselves for the last 15 years.

  • CNN Caught in Locker Room Talk; Crew Jokes About Trump's Plane Crashing

    Nothing to see here. The girls at CNN were merely fraternizing, joking it up about the President elect’s airplane crashing. If you listen closely, one of the catamites caught giggling said he’d only be injured, not killed, so there’s that. 

    Hot mics are a bitch and so is the person who made these comments.

    Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

  • Stanford Study Reveals California Pensions Underfunded By $1 Trillion Or $93k Per Household

    Earlier today the Kersten Institute for Governance and Public Policy highlighted an updated pension study, released by the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, which revealed some fairly startling realities about California’s public pension underfunding levels.  After averaging $77,700 per household in 2014, the amount of public pension underfunding for the state of California jumped to a staggering $92,748 per household in 2015.  But don’t worry, we’re sure pension managers can grow their way out of the problem…hedge fund returns have been stellar recently, right?

    Stanford University’s pension tracker database pegs the market value of California’s total pension debt at $1 trillion or $93,000 per California household in 2015. 

     

    In 2014, California’s total pension debt was calculated at $77,700 per household, but has increased dramatically in response to abysmal investment returns at California’s public pension funds that hover at or below zero percent annual returns.

     

    The Pension Tracker database (www.pensiontracker.org) is maintained by the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) and is intended to help localize pension data by providing the ability to look up the market value of pension debt in any locality in California.

    Looking back to 2008, the underfunding levels of California’s public pension have skyrocketed 157% on abysmal asset returns and growing liabilities resulting from lower discount rates. 

    Perhaps this helps shed some light on why CalPERS is having such a difficult time with what should have been an easy decision to lower their long-term return expectations to 6% from 7.5% (see “CalPERS Weighs Pros/Cons Of Setting Reasonable Return Targets Vs. Maintaining Ponzi Scheme“)…$93k per household just seems so much more “manageable” than $150k.

    Pension

     

    Oddly enough, California isn’t even the worst off when it comes to pension debt as Alaska leads the pack with just over $110,000 per household.

    Pension

     

    Of course, at this point the question isn’t “if” these ponzi schemes will blow up but rather which one will go first?  We have our money on Dallas Police and Fire

  • Clinton & Trump Aides Forum Devolves Into Screaming Match – "I Would Rather Lose Than Win The Way You Did"

    How was this ever going to end well? An election post-mortem forum erupted into a shouting match as top strategists of Hillary Clinton’s campaign accused their Republican counterparts of fueling and legitimizing racism to elect Donald Trump. Clinton communications director Jennifer Palmieri exclaimed "I would rather lose than win the way you guys did," to which Kellyanne Conway, Trump’s campaign manager, fumed "I can tell you are angry, but wow… Will you ever accept the election results?" And it went down-hill from there…

    As NBC News reports, a Harvard panel that traditionally writes the first draft of presidential campaign history devolved into a shouting match between Trump and Clinton aides on Thursday in a raw, emotional display echoing the divisive campaign.

     Jennifer Palmieri, who was Hillary Clinton's communications director, zeroed in on Steve Bannon, the incoming chief strategist for President-elect Donald Trump who once ran the web site Breitbart.

     

    "If providing a platform for white supremacists makes me a brilliant tactician, I am proud to have lost," said Palmieri, one of six Clinton aides who sat across tables from top Trump campaign staff at a forum moderated by three journalists, NBC News' Andrea Mitchell among them. "I would rather lose than win the way you guys did."

     

    Kellyanne Conway, who managed Trump's campaign, was visibly angry and indignantly interrupted. "Do you think I ran a campaign where white supremacists had a platform?"

     

    "You did, Kellyanne. You did," Palmieri said, as other Clinton aides chimed in in the affirmative. With only two microphones allowed to be open at any given time, the shouting match was so heated it became difficult to follow.

     

    "Do you think you could have just had a decent message for white, working-class voters? How about, it's Hillary Clinton, she doesn't connect with people? How about, they have nothing in common with her? How about, she doesn't have an economic message?" Conway said.

     

    "There were dog whistles," said Clinton strategist Joel Benenson at one point.

     

    Said Conway: "Guys, I can tell you are angry, but wow. Hashtag he's your president…will you ever accept the election results? Will you tell your protesters that he's their president, too?"

    Exposing a somewhat stunning level of cognitive dissonance, seemingly blaming the media, The Washington Post reports that Clinton’s campaign aides insisted, again and again, that their candidate had been held to a different standard than the other contenders — as evidenced by the controversy over her use of a private email server while secretary of state.

    Palmieri said that many political journalists had a personal dislike for the Democratic nominee and predicted that the email issue will go down in history as “the most grossly overrated, over-covered and most destructive story in all of presidential politics.”

     

    “If I made one mistake, it was legitimizing the way the press covered this story line,” Palmieri said.

     

    Mook added that Trump deftly used his rally speeches to “switch up the news cycle.”

     

    “The media by and large was not covering what Hillary Clinton was choosing to say,” Mook said. “They were treating her like the likely winner, and they were constantly trying to unearth secrets and expose.”

     

    For instance, Mook posited that the media did not scrutinize Trump’s refusal to release his tax returns as intensively as the issue of Clinton’s private email server.

     

    Conway retorted: “Oh, my God, that question was vomited to me every day on TV.”

    Joel Benenson, Clinton’s chief strategist, meanwhile, served notice that the election may be over but that the battles it spawned are not.

    “You guys won, that’s clear,” Benenson said. “But let’s be honest. Don’t act as if you have a popular mandate for your message. The fact of the matter is that more Americans voted for Hillary Clinton than for Donald Trump.”

     

    At which point Conway turned to her side and said: “Hey, guys, we won. You don’t have to respond. He was the better candidate. That’s why he won.”

  • The Propaganda About Russian Propaganda

    Authored by Adrian Chen, originally posted at The New Yorker,

    In late October, I received an e-mail from “The PropOrNot Team,” which described itself as a “newly-formed independent team of computer scientists, statisticians, national security professionals, journalists and political activists, dedicated to identifying propaganda—particularly Russian propaganda targeting a U.S. audience.” PropOrNot said that it had identified two hundred Web sites that “qualify as Russian propaganda outlets.” The sites’ reach was wide—they are read by at least fifteen million Americans. PropOrNot said that it had “drafted a preliminary report about this for the office of Senator Ron Wyden (D-OR), and after reviewing our report they urged us to get in touch with you and see about making it a story.”

    Reporting on Internet phenomena, one learns to be wary of anonymous collectives freely offering the fruits of their research. I told PropOrNot that I was probably too busy to write a story, but I asked to see the report. In reply, PropOrNot asked me to put the group in touch with “folks at the NYTimes, WaPo, WSJ, and anyone else who you think would be interested.” Deep in the middle of another project, I never followed up.

    PropOrNot managed to connect with the Washington Post on its own. Last week, the Post published a story based in part on PropOrNot’s research. Headlined “Russian Propaganda Effort Helped Spread ‘Fake News’ During Election, Experts Say,” the report claimed that a number of researchers had uncovered a “sophisticated Russian propaganda campaign” that spread fake-news articles across the Internet with the aim of hurting Hillary Clinton and helping Donald Trump. It prominently cited the PropOrNot research. The story topped the Post’s most-read list, and was shared widely by prominent journalists and politicians on Twitter. The former White House adviser Dan Pfeiffer tweeted, “Why isn’t this the biggest story in the world right now?”

    Vladimir Putin and the Russian state’s affinity for Trump has been well-reported. During the campaign, countless stories speculated on connections between Trump and Putin and alleged that Russia contributed to Trump’s election using propaganda and subterfuge. Clinton made it a major line of attack. But the Post’s story had the force of revelation, thanks in large part to the apparent scientific authority of PropOrNot’s work: the group released a thirty-two-page report detailing its methodology, and named names with its list of two hundred suspect news outlets. The organization’s anonymity, which a spokesperson maintained was due to fear of Russian hackers, added a cybersexy mystique.

    But a close look at the report showed that it was a mess. “To be honest, it looks like a pretty amateur attempt,” Eliot Higgins, a well-respected researcher who has investigated Russian fake-news stories on his Web site, Bellingcat, for years, told me. “I think it should have never been an article on any news site of any note.”

    The most striking issue is the overly broad criteria used to identify which outlets spread propaganda. According to PropOrNot’s recounting of its methodology, the third step it uses is to check if a site has a history of “generally echoing the Russian propaganda ‘line’,” which includes praise for Putin, Trump, Bashar al-Assad, Syria, Iran, China, and “radical political parties in the US and Europe.” When not praising, Russian propaganda includes criticism of the United States, Barack Obama, Clinton, the European Union, Angela Merkel, NATO, Ukraine, “Jewish people,” U.S. allies, the mainstream media, Democrats, and “the center-right or center-left, and moderates of all stripes.”

    These criteria, of course, could include not only Russian state-controlled media organizations, such as Russia Today, but nearly every news outlet in the world, including the Post itself. Yet PropOrNot claims to be uninterested in differentiating between organizations that are explicit tools of the Russian state and so-called “useful idiots,” which echo Russian propaganda out of sincerely held beliefs. “We focus on behavior, not motivation,” they write.

    To PropOrNot, simply exhibiting a pattern of beliefs outside the political mainstream is enough to risk being labelled a Russian propagandist. Indeed, the list of “propaganda outlets” has included respected left-leaning publications like CounterPunch and Truthdig, as well as the right-wing behemoth Drudge Report. The list is so broad that it can reveal absolutely nothing about the structure or pervasiveness of Russian propaganda. “It’s so incredibly scattershot,” Higgins told me. “If you’ve ever posted a pro-Russian post on your site, ever, you’re Russian propaganda.” In a scathing takedown on The Intercept, Glenn Greenwald and Ben Norton wrote that PropOrNot “embodies the toxic essence of Joseph McCarthy, but without the courage to attach individual names to the blacklist.”

    By overplaying the influence of Russia’s disinformation campaign, the report also plays directly into the hands of the Russian propagandists that it hopes to combat. “Think about RT and Sputnik’s goals, how they report their success to Putin,” Vasily Gatov, a Russian media analyst and a visiting fellow at the University of Southern California’s Annenberg School for Communication and Journalism, told me. “Their success is that they have penetrated their agenda, that they have become an issue for the West. And this is exactly what happened.” (Kristine Coratti Kelly, a spokeswoman for the Post, said, “The Post reported on the work of four separate sets of researchers. PropOrNot was one. The Post reviewed its findings, and our questions about them were answered satisfactorily during the course of multiple interviews.”)

    In a phone interview, a spokesman for PropOrNot brushed off the criticism. “If there’s a pattern of activity over time, especially combined with underlying technical tells, then, yeah, we’re going to highlight it,” he said. He argued that Russian disinformation is an enormous problem that requires direct confrontation. “It’s been clear for a while that Russia is a little braver, more aggressive, more willing to push the boundaries of what was previously acceptable.” He said that, to avoid painting outlets with too broad a brush, the group employs a sophisticated analysis that relies on no single criterion in isolation.

    Yet, when pressed on the technical patterns that led PropOrNot to label the Drudge Report a Russian propaganda outlet, he could point only to a general perception of bias in its content. “They act as a repeater to a significant extent, in that they refer audiences to sort of Russian stuff,” he said. “There’s no a-priori reason, stepping back, that a conservative news site would rely on so many Russian news sources. What is up with that?” I asked to see the raw data PropOrNot used to determine that the Drudge Report was a Russian-propaganda outlet. The spokesman said that the group would release it to the public eventually, but could not share it at the moment: “That takes a lot of work, and we’re an all-volunteer crew.” Instead, he urged me to read the Drudge Report myself, suggesting that its nature would be apparent.

    On its Twitter account, PropOrNot, in support of its research, cites an article I wrote for the Times Magazine, in 2015, about an online propaganda operation in Russia. But my investigation was focussed on a concrete organization that directly distributed disinformation. I was able to follow links from Twitter accounts and Web sites to a building in St. Petersburg where hundreds of young Russians worked to churn out propaganda. Despite the impressive-looking diagrams and figures in its report, PropOrNot’s findings rest largely on innuendo and conspiracy thinking.

    Another major issue with PropOrNot is that its members insist on anonymity. If one aims to cut through a disinformation campaign, transparency is paramount. Otherwise you just stoke further paranoia.The Russian journalist Alexey Kovalev, who debunks Kremlin propaganda on his site, Noodleremover, floated the possibility that PropOrNot was Ukrainians waging a disinformation campaign against Russia. The PropOrNot spokesman would speak to me only on the condition of anonymity and revealed only bare biographical details on background. “Are you familiar with the assassination of Jo Cox?” he asked, when I asked why his group remained in the shadows, referring to the British M.P. murdered by a right-wing extremist. “Well, that is a big thing for us. Basically, Russia uses crazy people to kill its enemies.”

    I can report that the spokesman was an American man, probably in his thirties or forties, who was well versed in Internet culture and swore enthusiastically. He said that the group numbered about forty people. “I can say we have people who work for major tech companies and people who have worked for the government in different regards, but we’re all acting in a private capacity,” he said. “One thing we’re all in agreement about is that Russia should not be able to fuck with the American people. That is not cool.” The spokesman said that the group began with fewer than a dozen members, who came together while following Russia’s invasion of eastern Ukraine. The crisis was accompanied by a flood of disinformation designed to confuse Ukraine and its allies. “That was a big wake-up call to us. It’s like, wait a minute, Russia is creating this very effective fake-news propaganda in conjunction with their military operation on the ground,” the spokesman said. “My God, if they can do that there, why can’t they do it here?” PropOrNot has said that the group includes Ukrainian-Americans, though the spokesman laughed at the suggestion that they were Ukrainian agents. PropOrNot has claimed total financial and editorial independence.

    Given PropOrNot’s shadowy nature and the shoddiness of its work, I was puzzled by the group’s claim to have worked with Senator Ron Wyden’s office. In an e-mail, Keith Chu, a spokesman for Wyden, told me that the PropOrNot team reached out to the office in late October. Two of the group’s members, an ex-State Department employee and an I.T. researcher, described their research. “It sounded interesting, and tracked with reporting on Russian propaganda efforts,” Chu wrote. After a few phone calls with the members, it became clear that Wyden’s office could not validate the group’s findings. Chu advised the group on press strategy and suggested some reporters that it might reach out to. “I told them that if they had findings, some kind of document that they could share with reporters, that would be helpful,” he told me. Chu said that Wyden’s office played no role in creating the report and didn’t endorse the findings. Nonetheless, he added, “There has been bipartisan interest in these kind of Russian efforts, including interference in elections, for some time now, including from Senator Wyden.” This week, Wyden and six other senators sent a letter to the White House asking it to declassify information “concerning the Russian Government and the U.S. election.”

    The story of PropOrNot should serve as a cautionary tale to those who fixate on malignant digital influences as a primary explanation for Trump’s stunning election. The story combines two of the most popular technological villains of post-election analysis – fake news and Russian subterfuge – into a single tantalizing package. Like the most effective Russian propaganda, the report weaved together truth and misinformation.

    Bogus news stories, which overwhelmingly favored Trump, did flood social media throughout the campaign, and the hack of the Clinton campaign chair John Podesta’s e-mail seems likely to have been the work of Russian intelligence services. But, as harmful as these phenomena might be, the prospect of legitimate dissenting voices being labelled fake news or Russian propaganda by mysterious groups of ex-government employees, with the help of a national newspaper, is even scarier. Vasily Gatov told me, “To blame internal social effects on external perpetrators is very Putinistic.”

  • Hillary Supporters Get Welcome News As Study Confirms White Population Dying Off Fast In Key Swing States

    Disaffected Hillary snowflakes at colleges and universities all around the country, many of whom surely cried themselves to sleep last night, woke up this morning to some of the best news they’ve received in weeks.  According to a new study by the University of New Hampshire Carsey School of Public Policy, white people are dying off faster than ever in the U.S.  Moreover, the biggest declines are coming in key swing states like FL and PA.  Even better, the study expects the “natural decrease” of whites to accelerate in the future.

    In 2014, deaths among non-Hispanic whites exceeded births in more states than at any time in U.S. history. Seventeen states, home to 121 million residents or roughly 38 percent of the U.S. population, had more deaths than births among non-Hispanic whites (hereafter referred to as whites) in 2014, compared to just four in 2004. When births fail to keep pace with deaths, a region is said to have a “natural decrease” in population, which can only be offset by migration gains. In twelve of the seventeen states with white natural decreases, the white population diminished overall between 2013 and 2014.

     

    This research is the first to examine the growing incidence of white natural decrease among U.S. states and to consider its policy implications. Our analysis of the demographic factors that cause white natural decrease suggests that the pace is likely to pick up in the future.

    Here are some of the the “Key Findings” from the study:

    NH

     

    At the national level, the White birth-to-death ratio has been shrinking aggressively since the “great recession” started in 2008.  By the time 2014 rolled around the rate had declined to near parity.  Researchers attribute the trends to “declining fertility due to the Great Recession” and an aging baby boomer population.

    Over the last several decades, demographers have noted the growing incidence of natural decrease in the United States. More widespread natural decrease results from declining fertility due to the Great Recession, and the aging of the large baby boom cohorts born between 1946 and 1964. This senior population is projected to expand from nearly 15 percent of the total population in 2015 to nearly 24 percent in 2060.  Much of this aging baby boom population is white, and so white mortality is growing. Together, growing white mortality and the diminishing number of white births increase the likelihood of more white natural decrease.

    NH

     

    Meanwhile, white populations in the key swing states of FL and PA have been shrinking for years while NV and AZ also joined the club in 2010 and 2012, respectively.

    NH

     

    And while white populations are declining the Southwest and Northeast, the Midwest populations are still growing…but no real problem there as those are Republican strongholds anyway.

    White natural decrease states are widely dispersed, with clusters in the South, West, and Northeast regions. States with minimal white natural increase are also widely distributed, though they are often in close proximity to the natural-decrease states. States with high natural increase are concentrated in the Mountain West and the West North Central regions but also include Texas, Louisiana, Indiana, and Virginia.

    NH

     

    So it’s not all bad news for democrats…if Hillary can hold out for a couple more election cycles, and suppress her “pneumonia” flare ups, she may just be unbeatable.

  • In Defense Of Trump's Deal With Carrier

    Submitted by Tho Bishop via The Mises Institute,

    Donald Trump hasn’t yet made the move from Trump Tower to America’s most expensive public housing, but he was able to come through with one campaign promise this week by announcing a deal with Indiana-based Carrier Air Conditioning that will keep almost 1,000 jobs in the state. As reported, the deal seems largely focused on the State of Indiana offering millions in tax breaks and an understanding that the Trump administration will push for regulatory and corporate tax relief at the Federal level.

    While the jobs Carrier will be keeping in the US only makes up about a third of the jobs the company had planned to move to Mexico, the underlying deal seems to reflect a larger commitment to addressing the corporate tax and regulatory burdens that have long held back the American economy. While some have described Trump's approach as crony capitalism, if the terms of the deal really are limited to tax relief, such claims are baseless. While it is true that tax breaks for specific companies are less ideal than across-the-board cuts (or outright abolishment) of business taxes, they should not be confused with taxpayer subsidies.

    As Matthew McCaffrey wrote last year defending tax credits for video game companies:

    Decades ago, economists like Mises and Rothbard were already arguing that tax breaks are not economically or ethically equivalent to receiving subsidies. Simply put, being permitted to keep your income is not the same as taking it from competitors. Exemptions and loopholes do not forcibly redistribute wealth; taxes and subsidies do, thereby benefiting some producers at the expense of others.

     

    Yes, entrepreneurs who take advantage of tax breaks will incur fewer costs than entrepreneurs who don’t. But this doesn’t show that exemptions or loopholes provide unfair advantages; in fact, just the opposite — it shows that taxes penalize entrepreneurs unlucky enough to be left holding the bill.

    Tax breaks are beneficial to those who claim them, but they are not subsidies. Rather, exemptions and loopholes are life jackets in a sea of wealth redistribution. Mises said it perfectly: “capitalism breathes through those loopholes.” Sadly, his simple insight continues to elude most commentators.

    Yet still, unsurprisingly, the deal has been condemned by devoted Trump-critics from across the ideological spectrum.

    David Boaz, vice president of the Cato Institute, found the offering of tax breaks and regulatory relief alarming, telling The Fiscal Times:

    This is not a precedent we want to see — American presidents aren’t supposed to interfere on behalf of individual companies. When the president does it himself it makes clear that this is a crony economy, to benefit the president’s friends, and that individual companies can be subject to pressure and punishment directly at the hands of the president.

    Of course, Trump didn’t make this deal by himself — he worked with the Vice President-elect Mike Pence, who is still the governor of Indiana. There’s also no indication that Trump’s deal with Carrier reflected any sort of personal interest in the specific company, but rather is part of a larger push to keep companies from re-locating overseas. While Trump’s rhetoric on trade, with a heavy focus on the potential use of tariffs, is itself troubling, there is nothing inherently wrong with an administration focused on keeping jobs in America — especially if this is accomplished by relieving tax and regulatory burdens.

    A more compelling argument against Trump’s deal was made by AEI’s James Pethokoukis:

    More broadly, this is all terrible for a nation's economic vitality if businesses make decisions to please politicians rather than customers and shareholders. Yet America's private sector has just been sent a strong signal that playing ball with Trump might be part of what it now means to run an American company. Imagine business after business, year after year, making decisions based partly on pleasing the Trump White House. … Indeed, one Indiana official, Politico reports, thinks the deal was driven by concerns United Technologies “could lose a portion of its roughly $6.7 billion in federal contracts.”

    Pethokoukis is correct, if business decisions start to be made entirely to please President Trump, then the American economy would suffer. But, again, the carrots Trump used for the Carrier deal involved lower taxes and a promise of regulatory relief. Should he follow through, then Trump’s economic policy would be helping American workers while simultaneously benefiting American customers and company shareholders. While future deals may deviate from this approach, and any move to push punishing tariffs should be rightfully criticized, it isn’t applicable in this specific situation.

    And while it’s fair to speculate that Carrier’s parent company, United Technologies Corp., is hoping any good will it builds with a Trump administration will either lead to future government contracts, or protect the ones it has, this is simply the unfortunate consequence of having government and business so tightly entwined to begin with. It is hardly unique to either the Carrier deal or the Trump administration.

    Of course it should come as no surprise that the most absurd analysis of Trump’s deal comes from Senator Bernie Sanders, who in The Washington Post wrote:

    Just a short few months ago, Trump was pledging to force United Technologies to “pay a damn tax.” He was insisting on very steep tariffs for companies like Carrier that left the United States and wanted to sell their foreign-made products back in the United States. Instead of a damn tax, the company will be rewarded with a damn tax cut. Wow! How’s that for standing up to corporate greed? How’s that for punishing corporations that shut down in the United States and move abroad?

     

    In essence, United Technologies took Trump hostage and won. And that should send a shock wave of fear through all workers across the country.

    Sanders main criticism is that Trump moved away from rhetoric punishing American businesses and instead tried to alleviate some of the additional costs government imposes on them. It’s not a surprise this upsets the senator from Vermont, as in his world, an opportunity to increase someone’s tax burden is a terrible thing to waste — which is why he campaigned on raising them for most of America.

    Though the deal with Carrier will go a long way to make America great again for those workers who were facing losing their jobs, it is a drop in the bucket for the ills that really plague the country. There are still many warning signs about what the economic policy of a Trump administration will look like. But not every action he takes will necessarily be bad policy.

    If Trump builds on this win with broader cuts on corporate taxes and regulatory relief, as he ran on during the campaign, than these policies should be praised — just as any future attacks on sound economics or individual liberty should be condemned.

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Today’s News 2nd December 2016

  • The 20 Most Sinister Psyop Leaflets Of All Time

    Submitted by Jake Anderson via TheAntiMedia.org,

    Some of the weirdest and most disturbing advertisements ever created are done so for military campaigns. They come in the form of propaganda leaflets, which are dropped by air or otherwise disseminated into a country or territory that is being invaded. Virtually every war since the beginning of the 20th century has produced these leaflets, which are also known as psyops or psychological operations and can be divided up into three categories: white, grey, and black. The intention is to use psychology and symbolism to influence members of the general population, inciting fear and, ultimately, compliance.

    Governments use psyops in a variety of contexts but the most common is during war, when entire populations must be convinced that killing in the name of God and State is not murder. Citizens also need an emotional impetus to grant their government the impunity to kill civilians and children in the most brutal of ways, including via unmanned drones. All but a few countries in the world are currently engaged in war, so there are a lot of psyops in progress as you read this.

    The following leaflets come to you thanks to the incredible archives of PsyWar.org. They are, in this author’s humble opinion, the most sinister psyop leaflets ever dropped:

    British leaflet produced by General Headquarters in France for German troops on the Western front 1915-1918

    psyop_germany

    British balloon distributed propaganda leaflets for German troops on the Western front, 1918

    psyop_early

    World War 2 Germany to Allies – “While you were away”

    psyop_yanks

    “Waiting in Vain”

    psyop_waitinginvain

    “Life is short – Death is quicker!”

    psyop_lifeisshort

    Christmas message from Soviet Union to Germany 1941-1945

    psyop_mother

    Japan to Allied Troops 1941-1945 – “CAPITALISTS DEMAND RED ENDLESSLY!”

    psyop_japan

    First Iraq War – 1991 – “Adhere to the following procedures to cease resistance”

    psyop_adhere

    “CEASE RESISTANCE BE SAFE”

    psyop_iraq1

    “Escape to Your Home!”

    psyop_escapetohome

    IFOR/SFOR BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA 1996-2004

    psyop_bosnia

    Operation Enduring Freedom – 2001-2002

    psyopleaflet

    psyop_leaflet2

    psyop_money

    Operation Iraqi Freedom – Coalition Psyop 2003-2004

    psyop_mosque

    psyop_leaflet3

    psyop_ordnance

    psyop_leaflet4

    Israel to Lebanon 2006 – “Your defenders are your destroyers”

    psyop_israel2

    psyop_israel

    These days, the internet has turned into a powerful new breeding ground for wartime psyops, but the psychological methods and imagery still follow the same tactics; you just have the added tools of chat rooms, social media, and forums as ways to manufacture consent.

  • JPMorgan Tells Investors: Ignore Mainstream Media

    In its 'year-forward' 2017 outlook, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic warns that:

    In the short-term, with additional rate hikes imminent and the record level of the USD, we are at an increased risk of repeating the scenario from January 2016 where fundamental and systematic investors were selling at the same time in the aftermath of a Fed hike (albeit, some risks are lower this time, such as higher Oil prices and a lack of focus on China/CNY). According to our macroeconomic model, the VIX also appears to be ~3 points too cheap (1 standard deviation) relative to dozens of macroeconomic variables.

     

    So what is driving the VIX and is it still a good measure of equity market risk? There are several factors that can explain the behavior of equity volatility this year. The first one is structural and we described it as market pinning during most of July and August, caused by option positioning. At the peak of market pinning in August, the S&P 500 realized less than 5% annualized volatility and moved less than 10bps on a number of days. As Brexit, the US election, and the September volatility spike were well anticipated events, they also resulted in covering of option hedges, and opportunistic selling of volatility. Low/negative bond yields increased the allure of selling volatility (and buying equities) and put further pressure on volatility levels. Finally, it appears that the time horizon of macro traders has shortened dramatically, likely as a result of increased participation of machines and algorithms that are quicker to adjust to significant events and can eliminate trading activity of slower investors (such as the overnight post-election move).

     

    What will market volatility be in 2017? We think that, fundamentally, risks for equities in 2017 are higher compared to 2016. We expect an increased level of geopolitical risk and increased uncertainties related to the new US administration. In Europe, significant risks include fallouts from Brexit, the referendum in Italy, elections in France and Germany, and continued tensions related to immigration. The Middle East will likely see further turmoil in relation to developments in Syria, and low Oil prices that continue exerting pressure on budgets of Oil exporters. While the US macroeconomic cycle may get a boost from the proposed fiscal stimulus, corporate tax reform and de-regulation, both the passage and efficacy of these measures are far from certain at this moment.

     

    The main market risk for equities will come from a stronger USD and higher rates, in our view, which can destabilize equity P/E, Emerging Markets, the housing market, and US equity segments such as multinationals, domestic manufacturing, bond proxies, etc. Higher USD and bond yields will also undercut the ability of the new US administration to revive US manufacturing or use the fiscal deficit to re-ignite growth.

     

    Periods of low volatility may mask underlying fundamental risks. These quiet periods will be followed by quick outbursts of volatility that may not last long enough to be captured by an average investor. Hedgers may buy volatility ahead of an event and sell shortly before the catalyst to capture volatility grinding higher (rather than a spectacular increase).

     

    To gauge market risks, equity investors should watch for further increases in bond yields and strengthening of USD. Geopolitical developments should be gauged from both traditional and non-traditional data sources (such as big data sentiment indicators, independent media outlets, etc.) given the failure of many traditional data sources to anticipate geopolitical developments this year.

    So in summary – don't trust the "fakeness" of a low VIX or the mainstream media when it comes to managing your money.

  • Trump's Treasury Secretary Pick Is A Lucky Man… Very Lucky

    Authored by Jesse Eisinger, originally posted at ProPublica.org,

    Steven Mnuchin has made a career out of being lucky.

    The former Goldman Sachs banker nominated to become Donald Trump’s treasury secretary had the perspicacity to purchase a collapsed subprime mortgage lender soon after the financial crisis, getting a sweet deal from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Now, if he’s confirmed, he will likely be able to take advantage of a tax perk given to government officials.

    Mnuchin was born into a family of Wall Street royalty. His father was an investment banker at Goldman Sachs for 30 years, serving in top management. He and his brother landed at the powerful firm, too. After making millions in mortgage trading, Mnuchin struck out on his own, creating a hedge fund and building a record of smart and well-timed investment moves.

    He dodged disaster when he inherited his mother’s portfolio. She was a longtime investor with Bernie Madoff, the largest Ponzi schemer in American history. After she died in early 2005, Mnuchin and his brother quickly liquidated her investments, making $3.2 million. The Madoff trustee, Irving Picard, sued to retrieve the money from the Mnuchins, as he did from other Ponzi scheme winners, contending that they were fake gains. A court ruled that Picard could only claw back money from those who had cashed out within two years before the collapse. The Mnuchins, having pulled out roughly three years before, got to keep their Madoff money. That something was dodgy about Madoff was an open secret on Wall Street.

    After the financial crisis, the FDIC seized IndyMac, whose irresponsible mortgage loans failed as the housing bubble burst. Desperate to offload the bank, the FDIC subsidized the takeover by sheltering Mnuchin and his team of investors, including hedge fund managers John Paulson and George Soros, from losses. The investors injected $1.55 billion into the bank in 2009. They changed the name to OneWest and five years later, sold it to lender CIT for more than $3 billion, doubling their investment.

    Mnuchin also benefited from what may have been a nice fluke a little later. He served as the co-chair of Relativity Media, a film and entertainment company, for about eight months until May 2015. Relativity filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in July 2015. Just before it collapsed, Relativity paid off a $50 million loan to Mnuchin’s bank, OneWest, in full.

    Paying off one creditor in full just before filing for bankruptcy looks questionable, especially when there is the appearance that such a deal isn’t at arm’s length. One Relativity investor cried fraud and sued in 2015, contending that Relativity used its loans for improper purposes, including to make payments to OneWest. Mnuchin’s lawyer called the claims preposterous and the suit was initially thrown out. A lawyer for the investor, a film financing company, told the Los Angeles Times that it planned to refile.

    Mnuchin was blessed again when the Obama administration did not crack down harder on foreclosure abuses. OneWest got a reputation among activists and borrowers as one of the more feckless banks, accused of throwing borrowers out of their homes, denying mortgage modifications, and targeting the elderly with reverse mortgages. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency settled with OneWest, and over a dozen other banks and mortgage servicers, over its robosigning practices in 2011. That regulatory settlement, called the Independent Foreclosure Review, was an utter debacle, as ProPublica has detailed. Regulators set up a process for consultants to review how the servicers had handled modification reviews, which meant in effect that the banks were monitoring themselves. The regulators did not punish any top financial executives over foreclosure mistreatment. In a happy circumstance for Mnuchin, the Department of Justice and state attorneys general did not include OneWest in their subsequent and more punitive settlement over foreclosure bad behavior.

    Mnuchin was fortunate once more to pick the right candidate, Trump, early; most of Wall Street assumed that Hillary Clinton would win and bet accordingly with its political donations.

    What good happenstance, then, that Trump didn’t mean what he said about Wall Street on the campaign trail.

    On the stump, Trump said, “We will never be able to fix a rigged system by counting on the people who rigged it in the first place.” He attacked Goldman Sachs by name, saying that the bank “owns” Ted Cruz, whose wife worked at the firm. “I know the guys at Goldman Sachs,” he said, “They have total, total control over [Cruz]. Just like they have total control over Hillary Clinton.” Trump put an image of Goldman CEO and chairman Lloyd Blankfein, along with other Jewish figures in finance like George Soros and Janet Yellen, in a commercial late in the campaign that was widely decried as anti-Semitic.

    Trump did not feel such a strong antipathy for Goldman that he passed over a firm veteran to be his treasury secretary.

    Mnuchin still owned $97 million of CIT stock as of last February. The Treasury Department will likely require him to sell those shares, since it poses a conflict of interest for the treasury secretary to own a stake in a financial institution. But therein lies a final good break for Mnuchin: According to a provision of the tax code, he can defer taxes, as long as he complies with certain conditions. That benefit, available to all officials who are required to sell investments upon taking a government job, could be worth millions to Mnuchin.

  • Payrolls Preview: Unemployment Rate Expected To Drop (But Blame The Weather & Calendar If Not)

    A series of stronger than expected data in recent days pushed Goldman Sachs to up their payrolls growth expectation to 200k (above the 180k expectations), but they note that while the unemployment rate is likely to drop (to 4.8%), average hourly earnings may disappoint. Of course, they add, any non-narrative-confirming misses on the data can likely be explained away by "weather effects and residual seasonality."

    As Goldman details, we forecast that nonfarm payroll growth increased to 200k in November, after an increase of 161k in October. We have revised up our forecast from 180k previously reflecting stronger data this week. Labor market indicators were stronger on balance last month, including improvements in reported job availability, the ADP report, and the employment components of service-sector surveys. In addition, we see a likely boost from positive weather effects and possible residual seasonality.

    Arguing for a stronger report:

    Job availability. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get—rose to +5.2, reversing a small decline in October. This measure has risen by about ten points over the last year.

     

    Service sector surveys. The employment components of service sector surveys mostly improved in November. The Richmond Fed (+7pt to +13), Dallas Fed (+6.5pt to +9.2), and New York Fed (+2.2pt to +10.9, after our seasonal adjustment) measures of service sector employment all strengthened. The Philly Fed non-manufacturing employment index edged down (-0.7pt to +15.6) but remains at levels consistent with expansion. Service sector employment increased 142k in October and has increased 161k on average over the last six months.

     

    ADP. The payroll processing firm ADP reported a 216k gain in private payroll employment in November, up from a downwardly revised 119k increase in October. While this is a significant beat, the new methodology ADP introduced last month creates some additional uncertainty around the translation of this upside ADP surprise into the outlook for tomorrow’s nonfarm payroll report.

     

    Some rebound from Hurricane-related weakness. In October, employment in the three sectors that we find are most sensitive to weather-related swings – retail, construction, and leisure and hospitality – increased by 20k, which is a smaller gain than the 6-month (33k) and 12-month (73k) average changes through September. Among East Coast states, employment in these sectors declined by a total of 16k in October, relative to an average monthly increase of 15k over the prior six months (Exhibit 1). Some of the biggest declines were in Florida and South Carolina, the states most impacted by Hurricane Matthew.

     

    Seasonals. Since the recession, November payroll growth has surprised consensus expectations roughly 2/3 of the time, with an average surprise of +27k.

     

    Exhibit 1: Some Potential Upside from East Coast States Impacted by Hurricane-related Weakness

    Source: Department of Labor, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

    Neutral Factors:

    Temporary election-related hiring. Election-related hiring typically shows up to some degree in the government and marketing research and opinion polling categories in the non-seasonally adjusted payroll data. However, the BLS makes a special adjustment to these changes to remove the effects of the election and in prior election years those categories did not spike on a seasonally adjusted basis in November. Therefore, it is unlikely we will see any direct election effect in the seasonally adjusted series.

     

    Jobless claims: Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits moved slightly higher, with the four-week moving average edging up to 253k in the November survey week. Initial claims were affected by technical factors including temporary auto plant shutdowns and weather-related effects from Hurricane Matthew, but we do not detect a significant change in the underlying trend which continues to show low layoff activity in the economy.

     

    Job cuts: Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas after our seasonal adjustment increased by 4k to 32k in November, but remain close to cycle-lows.

    Arguing for a weaker report:

    Online job ads. The Conference Board’s Help Wanted Online (HWOL) report reversed last month’s gains, and stands 15% lower than levels last year. However, we put limited weight on this indicator at the moment in light of research by Fed economists that argued that the HWOL ad count has been depressed by higher prices for online job ads.

     

    Manufacturing sector surveys. The employment components of manufacturing surveys were mixed in November. The ISM manufacturing (-0.6pt to 52.3), Chicago PMI, Empire State (-6.2pt to -10.9), and Kansas City Fed (-6pt to +1) employment indexes all declined, while the Dallas Fed (+4.3pt to +4.5), Richmond Fed (+2pt to +5), and Philly Fed (+1.4pt to -2.4) measures edged up. Manufacturing employment declined by 9k in the October report, and has declined by 7k on average over the last six months.

    We expect the unemployment rate to edge down to 4.8% in the November report from an unrounded 4.876% in October. Last month, the household survey showed a 43k decline in employment but the unemployment rate edged down to 4.9% due to a decline in labor force participation. The broader U6 unemployment rate dropped to a new post-crisis low of 9.5% as the number of involuntary part-time and marginally attached workers both declined.

    We expect average hourly earnings to increase 0.1% month-over-month, or 2.7% from a year ago, after rising to a new cycle high of 2.8% year-on-year in October. A modest retracement of last month’s gains and negative calendar effects are likely to contribute to a softer number. Our wage tracker, which captures the broader trend in wage growth across four major indicators, stands at 2.6% year-over-year as of Q3.

    *  *  *

    Finally, we look forward to seeing The White House spokesperson basking in the afterglow of their track record compared to president-elect Trump's likely tweeted response.

  • Not Zero Sum: World Bond Markets Endure $1.7 Trillion Sell Off; Equities Gain $635 Billion

    According to Bloomberg, world equity markets gained $635b in market cap, while bonds lost $1.7t — leaving a deficit of more than $1 trillion since the election. Much of those losses were absorbed by foreign governments, the cucks participating in never ending QE schemes. The balance sheets of the ECB and Federal Reserve are looking much worse now than just one month ago.

    source: Bloomberg

    “The market has moved with remarkable swiftness to price in the anticipated reflationary impact of a Trump administration,” said Matthew Cairns, a strategist at Rabobank International in London. “This has, in turn, prompted a notable rotation out of fixed income and into equities.”

    Still, Cairns cautioned the moves are “remarkable given the distinct lack of clarity as regards what policies the president-elect will actually pursue.”

    November’s rout wiped a record $1.7 trillion from the global index’s value in a month that saw world equity markets’ capitalization climb $635 billion.

    The yield on 10-year U.S. notes rose 56 basis points in November, the biggest jump since 2009, and was at 2.44 percent as of about 4 p.m. in New York, after reaching the highest since June 2015.

    The average yield on the Bloomberg Barclays Global gauge climbed to 1.61 percent on Nov. 23, after touching a record low of 1.07 percent on July 5.

    “A lot of people are beginning to think that it is the end of the bull rally,” said Roger Bridges, chief global strategist for interest rates and currencies in Sydney at Nikko Asset Management’s Australia unit, which oversees $14 billion. U.S. 10-year yields may rise to 2.7 percent in January, Bridges said.

    I think it’s important to remind people that the stock market has been soaring on the hopes of rapid GDP growth under Trump — who promised to build all sorts of stuff — walls, tunnels, bridges etc. What people don’t seem to grasp, unfortunately, is that in order to fund these projects the government needs to tap the bond markets.

    The 10yr bond yield has risen from 1.75% to 2.44% over the past month. The cost to service the national debt has skyrocketed — making it increasingly difficult to enact ambitious fiscal stimulus. Couple that with the break-neck gains in the dollar, especially against our chief trading rivals (+14% v yen over the past month), and one can easily paint a picture that all of the recent grandeur in equity markets has only served to ingratiate the wealthiest in the country and have hampered the specter of any real fundamental change, via fiscal stimulus, promised by Trump — which is central to his platform.

    Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

  • Who Still Lives At Home With Their Parents?

    Via Priceonomics.com,

    Living at home with your parents isn't just for little kids anymore. Young adults are now more likely to live with their parents than in any other living arrangement, according to a recent report by the Pew Research Center. Recent college grads aren’t alone; adults in the 25-29 and 30-34 age brackets are also moving home in record numbers.

    What forces are steering people into their parents’ basements? We wanted to find out, so we analyzed data from Earnest , a Priceonomics customer. We analyzed a dataset of more than 60,000 user responses to questions about their living situations to understand how it's influenced by factors like gender, age, location, and education.

    In our sample, 15% of the adults live with their parents. But that figure is higher in parts of the country with a high cost of living, underscoring the fact that income is a key determinant of living situation. Accordingly, people who have greater earning potential—as a result of earning a graduate degree or specializing in science, technology, engineering, or math (the STEM fields)—are the most likely to live independently.

    ***

    We first wanted to look at the impact of gender on living arrangement. The chart below shows the proportion of males and females in our sample who live with their parents.

    Data source: Earnest

    Men have gotten press lately for earning degrees at lower rates than women and entering the workplace in decreasing numbers. But we found that males and females are virtually even when it comes to living at home.

    We next considered age. Is it fair to characterize people who live at home mostly as recent college grads? We broke our sample into eight age groups and charted the percentage of each group that lives with their parents below. 

    Data source:  Earnest

    Indeed, younger adults are far more likely than older ones to live with their parents. In our sample, the average age of a person living at home was 27. The average renter and owner were 31 and 37, respectively. 

    At the tail end of this graph, we see a small number of older adults reporting to live with their parents. This could represent a group that lives with elderly parents to provide care.

    We wanted to know where these multigenerational households are located. Are they equally common across the country, or are there hotspots where adults are more likely to live at home? We calculated the percentage of the population that lives at home in each state for which we had at least 10 responses. 

    Data source:  Earnest

    Likelihood of living at home varies by location. More adults live with their parents in places like Hawaii and the New York metropolitan area—areas where the cost of living, and thus the bar one must clear to live independently, is high. 

    Conversely, states in the middle of the country are associated with both a lower cost of living and a larger proportion of independent adults. Indeed, our map resembles maps that  show the cost of living across the United States.

    If cost of living influences living arrangements, people are likely living at home out of financial necessity. We would then expect income to be low among people who live with their parents. Is it? 

    For each of four income brackets, we calculated the percentage of adults living at home, considering only the respondents who specified an income. Users who left this field blank were not included.

    Data source:  Earnest

    Our data suggest that people who live at home do so because they can’t afford to live independently. This group makes an average annual income of around $6,000. That’s not enough to pay the rent, no matter which state you live in.

    Yet, some people who live at home make a wage that should allow them to live independently. Like the older groups in our age analysis, these high earners could be older adults in established households who live with elderly parents to provide, not receive, support.

    A person’s income is strongly influenced by their education. Are those who live at home less educated than their independent counterparts? We grouped our data based on highest degree attained, then calculated the percentage of each group that lives with their parents.

    Data source:  Earnest

    In general, having more education means it’s less likely you’ll live at home: just 3% of PhDs live with their parents, versus a quarter of those with only a high school diploma.

    Surprisingly, a two-year associate’s degree grants more independence than a bachelor’s: 18% of associate’s degree-holders live with their parents, compared to 20% of bachelor’s-holders. This could be owing to the greater student loan burden faced by the latter group.

    Even within one of these categories, not all degrees are created equal. A bachelor’s degree in a STEM discipline may offer access to more lucrative jobs than one in the humanities. Does it also affect living situation? 

    We grouped our sample based on self-reported major and charted the percentage of each group that lives at home below.

    Data source:  Earnest

    Just 8.2 percentage points separate all majors we considered, except law. Compare this to the 22-point spread between PhD-holders and high school grads in our degree analysis above. What you study matters less than the level of education you attain. 

    That said, students of the hard sciences, plus law and education, are more likely to live away from home, whereas students of the humanities and “soft” sciences like psychology have more trouble leaving the nest.

    But a person’s independence is likely determined by a combination of what they study and the level of education they attain. Entry level jobs in STEM may pay as well as jobs held by PhDs in non-STEM fields. Does that translate to more independence in living situation?

    To find out, we grouped our sample by highest degree attained and major (classified simply as STEM or non-STEM). The percentage of each group living at home is displayed below.

    Data source:  Earnest

    Having a graduate degree in any discipline matters more than having it in any particular one: individuals with master’s degrees—in STEM or not—live at home in the lowest numbers.

    But for bachelor’s and associate’s degree-seekers, major matters. For both degrees, STEM students are less likely to live at home than are non-STEM majors. Associate’s degree-holders in STEM are also more independent than holders of STEM or non-STEM bachelor’s degrees. Again, this may be due to the higher student loan burden faced by graduates of 4-year schools.

    ***

    So what should you do if you’d like to live independently? Our data indicate that it’s all about income.

    First, live in an affordable state. Avoiding the coasts, and certainly the New York metropolitan area, would be a good idea.

    Seeking education should also be a priority. Earning a bachelor’s or associate’s degree will reduce your chances of living at home, and signing up for a graduate degree will further increase your independence.

    Finally, studying STEM will also help boost you out of the nest. In every degree program we considered, STEM majors lived at home less often than did students of non-STEM disciplines.

  • After A "Run On The Pension Fund" Dallas Mayor Demands Halt Of Withdrawals

    We’ve written several times over the past couple of months about the epic meltdown of the the Dallas Police and Firefighters Pension (DPFP) (see here, here and here for background).  It all started when the Pension Board discovered that one of their real estate managers had been consistently overmarking illiquid real estate investments.  That discovery resulted in an FBI investigation of the manager and a $1BN write down for the DPFP.  In the wake of the writedowns, Dallas policemen and firefighters rushed for the exits and withdrew over $500mm in assets. 

    Fearing a “run on the bank” that could push the whole city of Dallas into bankruptcy, Mayor Mike Rawlings has just sent a scathing letter to the DPFP Pension Board demanded that withdrawals be halted immediately until the “solvency and actuarial soundness of the Pension System is restored.”

    As the Board is well aware, at the beginning of this year, the actuarial value of assets under your supervision and control were reset to market value, resulting in a $1 billion valuation loss.  This significant markdown was the result of years of mismanagement and abuse. 

     

    Critically the Pension System’s actuary warned that the Pension System would become insolvent even sooner if Deferred Retirement Option Plan (“DROP”) funds are drawn down in less than a ten-year period.

     

    Despite this clear warning, you have inexplicably paid out nearly $500 million in lump-sum DROP withdrawals over a matter of mere months – notwithstanding your power to unilaterally restrict or limit DROP withdrawals.  In doing so, you have knowingly allowed DROP funds to be withdrawn at record levels, cognizant that doing so is irreparably harming the Pensions System’s solvency and liquidity.

     

    Already, as a result of your actions, the Pension System’s ability to pay its members’ future benefits has been irreparably reduced from a period of 15 years to 10 years.  Further, both the City of Dallas and the Pension System have projected that DROP withdrawals, if unabated, will lead to a liquidity crisis in the Pension System with the next 90 days, causing a forced sale of illiquid assets.  Your Board Chairman summed it up best when referring to the payment of DROP withdrawals: “- the continuation of this practice would be financial suicide.”  And yet the practice continues. 

     

    Given the urgency of this matter, I request a response within 48 hours as to whether the Board will immediately cease DROP payments until such time as the solvency and actuarial soundness of the Pension System is restored.

    MR

     

    As the Dallas Morning News points out, the DPFP’s previous management refused to believe that a “run on the bank” was possible and feared any efforts to limit withdrawals would have just resulted in “backlash from police and firefighters when the restrictions were lifted.”  Instead of limiting withdrawals, in fact, the Pension Board proposed a $1BN, taxpayer funded bailout. 

    The previous administration didn’t believe the run on the bank would ever happen. When The Dallas Morning News asked then-administrator Richard Tettamant about the possibility in 2012, he replied that it wouldn’t happen.

     

    “This could happen to Bank of America or Fidelity Investments as well, but as with them, there would be no reason for people to do that,” Tettamant said in an email. “The pension system has sufficient liquid assets to cover all DROP distribution requests.”

     

    More than $500 million has been withdrawn from the $1.5 billion fund this year. Most of it came after Aug. 11, when the pension fund proposed benefit cuts to help save it from insolvency caused by overvalued and risky real estate investments made by the previous administration.

     

    Still, the current pension board, which includes four City Council members, unanimously decided not to restrict DROP withdrawals this year after  hours of deliberations and legal advice given behind closed doors.

     

    Pension board members believed they couldn’t restrict the withdrawals forever and feared the backlash from police and firefighters when the restrictions were lifted. And they hoped that keeping DROP open would boost confidence in the fund.

    Meanwhile, Rawlings didn’t earn any new friends among police or firefighters with his letter, as the President of the Dallas Fire Fighters Association lashed out at the Mayor for throwing “gasoline on the fire.”

    Dallas Fire Fighters Association President Jim McDade also blasted the mayor for the letter. He said the city needs to step up instead of throwing “gasoline on the fire.”

     

    “If the mayor believes that his letter will stop the ‘run on the bank’ he is wrong,” McDade said in a written statement. “He just created a SPRINT to the bank.”

    Alas, while Dallas police and fire fighters may ultimately endure some short-term pain if redemptions are temporarily halted, we suspect that the real long-term losers, as per the usual, will be taxpayers who will be forced to pony up whatever amount of money is required to keep the whole farce going just a little longer.

     

    Here is the full letter from Dallas Mayor Mike Rawlings:

  • Yahoo's Advice To Trump: Educate Children In Media Literacy To Combat Fake News

    Submitted by Joseph Jankowski via PlanetFreeWeill.com,

    Writing for Yahoo News, National Political Columnist Matt Bai provides a suggestion to combat the so-called “fake news” epidemic that has become a major talking point of the mainstream media since Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election. According to Bai, we should be “teaching our kids how to consume” information in an age where the internet has provided a press to anyone with a computer and a router.

    Within his article, titled “The real problem behind fake news“, Bai calls fake news a “searing hot topic these days” and mentions the infamous WaPo article which cites a shadowy, anonymous organization known as PropOrNot (Propaganda or Not) that smears many legitimate conservative and libertarian news sources like Zero Hedge, Infowars, Breitbart, World Net Daily and The Ron Paul Institute as Russian propaganda.

    That WaPo article highlighted what was the second blacklist of websites to make its rounds in the mainstream press last month. The first list was put together by a nobody liberal professor from Merrimack College (let me tell you how worthy of circulation that is).

    Bai writes:

    The emergence of “fake news” is a searing hot topic these days, as you’ve probably heard — a new, truth-free media to go with our new, truth-free politics. The Washington Post reports that a lot of these phony stories, some of which probably influenced the election in at least a tangential way, originate with Russian “bots” programmed to confuse American readers. (Payback, I guess, for all those years when Voice of America did the same thing.)

     

    Under enormous pressure, Facebook and Google have now promised to do a better job of curating the content that populates their sites. Which is all very comforting, if you really want software engineers assuming the role of civic arbiter that has traditionally fallen to journalists. I don’t.

     

    And the problem with cracking down on social media sites is that it’s a little like the war on drugs. You can try to stamp out the supply of garbage news, but the Web is a vast place, and as long as someone can make money off misinformation, it will always find a crack through which to seep.

    Aside from citing the WaPo hit piece on basically all effective news outlets outside the MSM realm, Bai is being reasonable. Most will agree, it is better not to have Facebook and Google taking on the role of civic arbiter and information gatekeeper. And the promoting of a crackdown on social media could lead to the very slippery slope of censorship.

    The Yahoo News journalist goes on to writes:

    No, the long-term solution here is about stemming the demand. The answer doesn’t lie in hectoring tech companies into policing content, but rather in teaching our kids how to consume it.

    Bai says that “navigating the news media isn’t intuitive anymore” and compares it to flying a plane rather than driving a car.

    “A Big Bang at the genesis of the Internet age” has fractured the entire (Media) industry and its audience into a million pieces,” he says.

    “The proliferation of social media and the rise of mindless aggregation” is also causing this problem of “fake news” reaching the masses, Bia writes.

    My kids will spend months of their young lives studying the Revolution and the Civil War and the advent of mass production, which is fine. In grade school, they spend some part of every year revisiting the social movements of the ’60s, which is noble and important.

     

    But what’s called “media literacy” in the education world — the ability to consume torrents of information with some level of competence and sophistication — is still an outlier in social studies curricula, despite having been discussed now for decades. Even when it’s taught, it’s crammed into a high school unit, by which time today’s grade-schoolers will have been surfing YouTube for half their lives.

    It seems like a great idea, teach kids how to objectively analyze the media. But, if we are to take the mainstream media’s labeling of “fake news” seriously, we will find ourselves telling our children that only big networks like CNN and MSNBC are trustworthy sources.

    The real problem with the entire fake news narrative is that “fake news”, by PropOrNot’s definition, is really not a problem at all.

    The mainstream media is telling everyone that since Google’s algorithm made a mistake by linking to a false news report, individuals now must surrender their ability to look at things objectively and only trust the big news networks.

    Just look at PropOrNot.com’s blacklist, it is full of alternative news sites that now have large enough audiences to bang heads with the corporate controlled press. And considering that the trust in the mainline news is equal to that of trust in congress, this can only be seen as a way to discredit the grassroots news organizations that are threatening the old media’s reign.

    The labeling of fake news should be left up the internet user who might stumble across some wrong information or even some disinformation.

    It would be foolish to allow the mainstream press, an unknown organization that hides its identity and a leftist professor that teaches feminist media studies, to provide what is real and what is not.

    I would also not be too enthusiastic on the public school system, that runs off federal funding, embracing the rise of alternative voices in media that are usually critical of government (the way it is suppose to be).

    Matt Bai ends his piece for Yahoo with a very laughable thought.

    Here’s a radical thought: If President Trump is looking for a bold and useful education initiative that might serve the incidental purpose of redeeming what’s left of his soul, media literacy would be a pretty good place to start. Getting behind a nationwide push in K-through-12 classrooms could be an important and unifying priority for the incoming education secretary, Betsy DeVos.

     

    Willingly or not, Trump has done more than anyone else to expose the problem. The least he can do is begin to address it.

    HA!

    You mean the Donald Trump that absolutely ridiculed the mainstream media during a meeting last month over their blatant bias coverage of the election and misrepresentations?

    Hate to break it to you Matt, but if Trump were to do that many of the websites on the PropOrNot list cited by WaPo would be presented as “real news” to our children. CNN and ABC would be identified as the establishment government lapdogs that they are.

    I hope Trump takes your advice.

  • 70% Of Immigrants Admitted Under Obama's "Minor Refugee" Program Are Actually Adults

    Two years ago the Obama administration sought out to tackle a “crisis” that involved minors seeking out “human smugglers” to help with transportation across the U.S. – Mexico border.  So, with a swipe of the pen, Obama signed an executive order allowing minors of certain Central American countries to flee to the U.S. under a “refugee/parole program.” 

    Two years later, there’s just one problem: 70% of the people admitted under the program are actually adults.  According to MRC TV, official data from the State Department indicates that of the 1,600 aliens that have traveled to the U.S. under the CAM program to date, only 480 of them are actually under the age of 18. 

    Now, under the CAM program, the State Department told MRCTV in an email Wednesday that of the 1,600 aliens who have traveled to the United States to date, only 480 of them – just 30 percent – are children under the age of 18.

     

    Conversely, a full 70 percent of those aliens who’ve been allowed into the United States under the president’s program for “minors” are adults.

    The controversial initiative was launched in December 2014 as part of President Obama’s executive actions on immigrants, and was touted as a way to bring illegal alien children from certain Central American countries into the United States to be reunited with their families, who are often here illegally themselves.  The move was allegedly designed to keep underage children from relying on dangerous human smugglers to bring them across the U.S. –Mexico border illegally.  Per the State Department:

    The United States is establishing an in-country refugee/parole program in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras to provide a safe, legal, and orderly alternative to the dangerous journey that some children are currently undertaking to the United States. This program will allow certain parents who are lawfully present in the United States to request access to the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program for their children still in one of these three countries. Children who are found ineligible for refugee admission but still at risk of harm may be considered for parole on a case-by-case basis. The refugee/parole program will not be a pathway for undocumented parents to bring their children to the United States, but instead, the program will provide certain vulnerable, at-risk children an opportunity to be reunited with parents lawfully resident in the United States.

    Immigrant Detention

     

    And, like many government initiatives, the CAM program has been completely ineffective in slowing the number of children crossing the U.S.-Mexico border.  In fact, as MRC points out, U.S. Customs and Border Protection recently reported that it apprehended 97% more unaccompanied illegal minors at the border this October than last year. 

    On top of failing to provide much help to many child “refugees,” the CAM program hasn’t made a notable impact on the number of unaccompanied children and families who’ve elected to come into the United States illegally via the Mexican border – which is the very problem the initiative was supposedly created to alleviate.

     

    U.S. Customs and Border Protection reports it apprehended another 4,973 unaccompanied illegal alien children (UACs) at the U.S.-Mexico border in October, up 97 percent from the 2,519 UACs that border agents apprehended in October of last year. That same month, the Obama administration released more than 6,000 illegal alien children to sponsors living in the United States.

     

    CBP also caught another 6,029 family units crossing the Southwest U.S. border illegally during the month of October, a total 179 percent higher than the 2,162 family units the agency caught in October of last year. The border surge has increased so much, in fact, that officials are now warning the wave is already threatening to overwhelm their resources.

     

    In fact, CBP data shows that since President Obama launched the costly CAM program in December 2014, nearly 100,000 unaccompanied alien children and more than 123,000 family units have been apprehended at the U.S.-Mexico border.

    But don’t worry, even though the CAM program has been proven completely ineffective, it only cost taxpayers ~$1BN in 2016 so no big deal.

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Today’s News 1st December 2016

  • The Real Reasons Why Another American Civil War Is Possible

    Submitted by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    You have to hand it to the regressive left, when they conjure propaganda they really know how to run with it. When their indoctrination doesn’t take, and the public stops them cold with a wall of skepticism, they don’t give up! No — the little buggers double down and go for broke!

    I would point out, however, that this seemingly boundless drive to forsake all logic and reason in the name of ideology is not due to these people being special in their ambition. Rather, they are following a somewhat successful historic model; the model of communism. And by successful, I mean successfully destructive.

    With Donald Trump on the way to the White House in January, along with a Republican majority in Congress and the Senate, leftists long accustomed to dominating the public narrative through the mainstream media have found themselves without leverage. Now, they must resort to ankle biting with efforts like the “fake news” meme, which is designed to undermine the alternative media through ad hominem.  Obviously this will fail.  It is far too late for the mainstream media to gain back any social capital, and they will have to adapt or die out.

    With this avenue closing for the left, the next stage will be direct asymmetrics; they will use subversion at a more localized level; working to provoke “marginalized” groups into taking extreme action in order to illicit a negative and totalitarian response from conservatives.

    I am rather well versed on the history of communist insurgencies, and one simple reality that consistently stands out to me is that wherever communist movements exist, war follows.  They may claim to be peaceful in their aims and methods, they may claim to want what is best for society as a whole, but when these movements are denied access to social evolution, they almost always revert to violent means.  The primary reason for this, I believe, is that they really do assume at their very core that their ideal is the ONLY ideal.

    They think they are heroes, awakened to a world view that the rest of us are incapable of comprehending. In their minds, anyone seeking to obstruct them is either dangerously ignorant or a fascist hellbent on sabotaging humanity’s “natural progression” into the leftist utopia.   Therefore any and all actions are justified on their part.  They are fighting “evil.”  And, of course, conservatives like you and I are the physical manifestations of that evil.  We are the super-villains that must be destroyed at all costs in the leftist fantasy world.

    As I noted in my last article, Order Out Of chaos: The Defeat Of The Left Comes With A Cost, regressives in the form of social justice warriors are currently more cute in their provocations than dangerous, but this is only an early stage of their movement.  When these people do not get what they want, when they realize that propaganda methods are not effective, they will inevitably turn toward militancy and aggressive mob action.  This is the problem with zealots: they are infinitely capable of moral relativity.  They are monsters in people suits just waiting to be unleashed, but made even more dangerous by their self-image as guardians.

    There is nothing worse than a psychopath with a desperate desire to nurture you.

    After my last article, some readers responded that they understood my basic premise — that the left versus right dynamic is being instigated by global elites, and that this could result in both sides moving to opposing extremes of the political spectrum; communism versus fascism.  That said, they also wanted to know what I thought should be done about the left in particular?  Sure, the elites are the root cause of the threat, but what about all the crazed leftists the elites hide behind and exploit?  Don’t we have to deal with them at some point as well?

    I would say yes, though our reaction must be measured or we risk falling into the paradigm trap the elites have constructed for us.

    So, here is the reality — when a movement like the social justice cult reverts to zealotry, there is nothing that can be done to persuade them otherwise.  Some will leave the movement behind, but the majority will refuse to acknowledge that their ideology has failed to sway the masses, and that this might be due to the fact that their ideology is highly flawed. They will seek instead to FORCE us into compliance. This ensures that a violent conflict will eventually arise.

    The danger is that while conservatives now appear to hold the keys to the behemoth that is government after wrestling it from the left (again, at least in appearance), we will be tempted to swing the cannons of the bureaucratic battleship towards our foes and in our favor.  I’ll have to use the old Lord of the Rings analogy once again here — big government is like the “one ring;” it will always result in evil, no matter who is wearing it.  Good people will take hold of it thinking they can resist abusing it and that they will exploit its incredible power to help others; and they will fall into darkness like everyone else.

    The solution?  Conservatives must face leftist extremists on equal ground. We must avoid the temptation of using government as a weapon to extinguish them.  We must avoid stooping to their level.  Otherwise, there is an serious risk that we will falter in our principles and become just as bad if not worse than the regressive left.  And yes, this means a decentralized civil war — a war in which government is denied as a player.  As long as conservatives refuse to wield government as a sword in our arsenal, we will win against all enemies.  The second we wimp out and beg government to aid us in our fight, we will be co-opted and assimilated by the elites.

    But what would this conflict look like?

    I could see an insurgency versus an insurgency scenario, but this is only if the right refuses to join with government to exact its goals.

    In the meantime, I welcome you to look at theories on this from the left side of the spectrum. Check out this article, referencing military “experts” from the ever regressive and dwindling Cracked Magazine titled 6 Reasons Why A New Civil War Is Possible And Terrifying, published at the beginning of November.

    While Cracked does briefly address the notion that a civil war could be triggered by the left in the U.S., their article was published before the election, clearly with the assumption that Donald Trump was bound to lose and that “right wing extremists” were the greatest threat to peace and stability in the wake of a Clinton presidency. The majority of their list is composed of scenarios in which “anti-government” right wingers could undermine social cohesion and was no doubt supplemented thoroughly by the Southern Poverty Law Center.

    I also want to quickly point out that the No. 2 threat on the Cracked list of civil war threats was the Thermal Evasion Suit I designed!  Or at least, the notion that we have the ability and knowledge to build these kinds of countermeasures.  Here’s a quote from the article:

    "But in my lurking on militia sites, I did occasionally run into information that looked like it had its basis in something other than a manual. Take this guide to evading drones published by the Oath Keepers, an anti-government group made up of former military and police veterans."

     

    [Cracked never actually links to the video, they just show a still photo.  Clearly they did not want people watching it and deciding for themselves what my intent was.]

     

    "I had a former drone operator review the video. He said their “thermal evasion suit” was based on a “decent premise”, although he said it would only work well if the shooter was stationary. It’s impossible to know if the info in this video came from someone with direct (albeit outdated) drone experience. In his time among America’s many militias, Bill said, “…I’ve probably ran into direct training” of groups by military veterans, “…five or six times, in five different states. It’s incredibly prevalent."

    I’m not sure exactly who their “expert” was.  Apparently he thought I was building an invisibility suit because he mentions the problem of “movement,” which no suit I know of can hide. They also state something about “outdated drone experience,” yet don’t actually qualify that with anything of substance. Finally, they insinuate that I somehow received help from military insiders with top-secret knowledge, and this is how I managed to design a thermal evasion system.  In fact, I came up with the design and materials on my own and brought it to Oath Keepers, who aided in the testing phase.  Not one drone expert was on hand to feed me design information.

    The point is, these people have no idea what they are talking about. Cracked never contacted me about the suit even though my face and email address are all over the video. It was not “impossible to know” if I received insider information; all they had to do was ask.  The left in their zealotry likes to jump to conclusions. They also assume we are a bunch of dumb hillbillies, when we are in fact much smarter and more innovative than they are.

    While Cracked and their so-called “experts” are hopelessly naive in many respects, they do make a few solid observations.

    First, they present the issue of lack of trust in government and police forces on the part of the public. They seem to suggest this is a bad thing by claiming that distrust of government leads to insurgency.  I would say distrust of government is the healthiest state a society can exist in.

    That said, I would remind readers that conservatives will take over the helm of the government ship as of 2017.  And, as I warned when I predicted a Trump election win back in June, the elites have allowed us into authority at a time when trust in government is at historic lows.  We have been handed the reigns of power, but I say this is not a cure, but a curse. We will no longer be considered freedom fighters.  We will be considered the jackboot stomping on the face of America.

    Second, Cracked brings up the problem of infrastructure interference, such as highway bombings and other methods of breaking down travel and supply routes.  They mention this based on the premise that we right wingers might set up IEDs using tannerite to terrorize road networks.

    We’ve already seen something like this, but not from the right wing.  Leftists are notorious lately for building human walls across major roads in order to shut down movement.  I would suggest that they will do this with more frequency (and with more violence) once winter winds down (leftists can’t stand the cold, which is why most of them live near beaches). Communists like to disrupt supply chains and production; they know this is the quickest path to instigating mass panic.

    Third, the Cracked article argues that right wingers might adopt the methods of ISIS in our bid for supremacy, which is extraordinarily absurd if you know anything at all about conservatives.

    It is actually the left that has shown time and time again their affinity for Muslim extremism.  They defend it openly and publicly. You would think all the social justice feminists and gay rights groups would view the Muslim world as a carnival of horrors being that in almost any Muslim controlled nation on the planet they would be enslaved, stoned to death or thrown off a tall building. But no, instead, SJWs champion mass Muslim immigration without question.

    Understand that forced Muslim immigration standards in Europe and in the U.S. are a product of global elitism under the Cloward Piven strategy.  The elites like to use incompatible cultures as a tool to destabilize target societies.  But, leftists are also more than happy to go along with this program.  I believe it is because the left is inherently weak when it comes to direct confrontation, and many progressives secretly enjoy the idea of having their own hitmen (Muslim extremists or Black Lives Matter) on speed dial just in case.

    If any group has shown a willingness to work with the likes of ISIS, it is the left. Set aside the fact that the Department of Defense under Obama admits in its own white papers supporting the rise of the Muslim terrorist network.

    Finally, Cracked and their experts suggest the idea that a second American civil war will not be two-sided, but multi-sided.  This is the only intelligent notion in the entire article and I agree with it wholeheartedly.

    Here is the problem — multiple groups on the left and the right have entirely different concepts on what the final American product should look like.  Some on the left are anarchists, some are communists, some just want the continuation of the democratic process (but still think Trump should be supplanted). On the right, there are hardcore neo-cons and war hawks that want to nuke the Middle East into oblivion, women and children included.  There are libertarians that just want a return to small government and constitutionalism.  There are anarcho-capitalists that seem to want the erasure of government and the constitution entirely but live in a world of theory rather than practicality (I call them egghead libertarians).  There are even Christian factions that long for a Christian-based theocracy.

    Then, there are people like me, who just want to get to the root of the problem and hang the globalists from lampposts (after a speedy trial of course).  We don’t necessarily have a beef with any other group as long as they stay out of our way.  We would like to circumvent the danger of a civil war altogether if possible.

    Unfortunately, I think Cracked and their experts are right on this, and that a second American civil war will be multifaceted.  And, while we are all at each others throats, the elites will be lounging on the riviera sipping mojitos and laughing.  The most dangerous faction (besides the elites) will be the catalyzing faction; the regressive left.  They will be the group that initiates all other hostilities.

    What leftists do not know is that they have always been useful idiots for the global elites, and, they will be thrown in the garbage once the elites are finished with them.  I hope that every leftist could watch the following interview with Soviet KGB defector Yuri Bezmenov, in which he examines the process by which free nations are brought to chaos by the elites through the exploitation of the regressive left in order to establish a totalitarian system.

    I leave you with this thought — civil war is unavoidable. The left is too crazy, and the right has now been given the weapon of government too enticing to overlook. Consider for a moment which “faction” in the world benefits most from this arrangement and then you will understand that the left is ultimately a distraction from the greater enemy. Remove the globalists from the picture, and the left will sort itself out.

  • China Curbs Gold Imports To Slow Capital Flight

    While all eyes were on India (as rumors swirled of an imminent gold import ban), The FT reports that China curbed gold imports in the wake of government attempts to clamp down on capital leaving the country, according to traders and bankers.

    Some banks with licences have recently had difficulty obtaining approval to import gold, they said — a move tied to China’s attempts to stop a weakening renminbi by tightening outflows of dollars, the banks added.

     

    The hit to gold imports comes as China tightens restrictions on overseas deals by state-owned companies in an effort to limit capital outflows that has seen the renminbi fall to its lowest against the dollar in eight years.

    When the headline hit, gold futures legged lower, but are rebounding…

    As The FT notes, quotas for importing gold have been cut during quarterly assessments this year. Banks also have dollar quotas, some of which must be used when buying gold.

    The limits on imports bite as the weakening renminbi raises Chinese investors’ interest in gold. Lower gold prices have also triggered more buying.

     

    The combination of tighter quotas and an uptick in demand caused the premium for gold in China over the international gold price to jump as high as $46 in the past few weeks, according to data from Wind Information. Normal levels are about $2 to $4.

     

    In an effort to ease that premium, Chinese banks have been allowed to import gold under their quotas using the offshore renminbi, one banker said. Although still high, the premium for gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange has since fallen to $26, according to Wind data.

    If the restrictions on imports are sustained that could raise questions about China’s moves to open its gold market to international traders. The world’s largest consumer of the precious metal has moved to have a greater voice over the price of gold.

  • $1 Trillion Money Manager Downplays The OPEC Deal

    Submitted by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

    The market should not be overly enthusiastic over today’s oil price surge on reports that OPEC has managed to reach some kind of a deal to reduce supply, David Hunt, chief executive at asset manager PGIM, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Wednesday.

    Hunt, CEO of the asset management group that manages US$1 trillion in assets, said the oil price surge today is “probably not” sustainable.

    Earlier today, OPEC managed to reach the much-hyped agreement to cut output in a bid to boost oil prices. The ministerial meeting in Vienna is said to have clinched a deal to cut output by 1.2 million barrels per day to 32.5 million barrels per day, but the deal may come with a condition that non-OPEC producers also cut production, by some 600,000 bpd.

    Oil prices are soaring on the OPEC deal news, and as of 10:50 AM (EST), WTI Crude was surging 7.21 percent at US$48.49, and Brent Crude was soaring by 7.65 percent at US$50.94, staying above the US$50 mark for a couple of hours now.

    “For us who are long-term investors, we tend to look at the group of people who are gathering in Vienna and say ‘they’re fighting against history… The cost of producing crude, largely due to fracking technology, has dramatically changed the marginal economics of oil,” Hunt told Bloomberg Television.

    According to Hunt, long-term investors like PGIM see the longer-run market fundamentals and sentiment as “much more important than whether we get a bounce of a couple of dollars on Brent today or not. Fundamentally the economics of oil have changed and we now need to work that through how different industries are pricing, and how commodities are priced on the basis of that”.

    Hunt also cautioned against investors being too optimistic in the long run about equity indexes’ continued rally since Donald Trump was elected U.S. President.

  • Obama Still Can't Process Hillary's Loss; Blames "Fox News In Every Bar And Restaurant"

    President Obama apparently still hasn’t come to terms with Hillary’s stunning loss on November 8th.  When asked about the 2016 election by Rolling Stone magazine in a recent interview, Obama relayed his view that “Fox News in every bar and restaurant in big chunks of the country” was a big part of the reason democrats lost the White House.

    In this election, [they] turned out in huge numbers for Trump. And I think that part of it has to do with our inability, our failure, to reach those voters effectively. Part of it is Fox News in every bar and restaurant in big chunks of the country, but part of it is also Democrats not working at a grassroots level, being in there, showing up, making arguments. That part of the critique of the Democratic Party is accurate. We spend a lot of time focused on international policy and national policy and less time being on the ground. And when we’re on the ground, we do well. This is why I won Iowa.

    Yes, because Fox News didn’t exist in 2008 and 2012 in the MidWest and CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, NYT, Reuters, AP, etc., etc., etc. are all extremely impartial news outlets…not extensions of the democratic party. 

     

    No, it certainly can’t be that the following memo, revealed by WikiLeaks that was sent to pretty much everyone in the mainstream media and intended to “give reporters there first thoughts” and “frame the HRC message and race”, implies any sort of bias in the overwhelming majority of the media outlets in the U.S.  God forbid that reporters be allowed to form their own “first thoughts”…no, first impressions are too important and had to force fed to the press by Hillary’s team.   

    But sure, Obama, Fox News is definitely the problem…

    Hillary

    Oddly, we would note that Fox News was the one major media outlet excluded from Hillary’s invite list…hmmm

  • Philadelphia City Attorney Linked To Anti-Trump Grafitti

    Philadelphia police have launched an investigation into an assistant city attorney in connection with anti-Trump graffiti found on the side of an upscale supermarket in Chestnut Hill on November 25th, according to the Inquirer; meanwhile an angry local Republican Party wants him fired.

    Surveillance footage released overnight, shows two men walking along in Chestnut Hill, around midnight on Friday by the Fresh Market located at 8200 Germantown Avenue. One wears a blue blazer, khakis and a rakishly-tied scarf, and carries a glass of wine. What at first appeared like a calm end to a night out in an upscale part of the city, changed when the second man was seen spray painting a message on the wall of a newly-constructed grocery store: “Fuck Trump.”

    The damage is estimated at between $3,000 and $10,000.

    While the sprayer remains unidentified, the man in the blazer turns out to be Assistant City Solicitor Duncan Lloyd. No charges have been filed and as of Wednesday evening, the city was awaiting more information before taking any administrative action.

    According to Philly.com, First Deputy City Solicitor Craig Straw confirmed Lloyd, who has worked for the law department since 2011, is one of two men in the video. “We do not condone this type of behavior from our employees,” Straw said. “To my knowledge, Mr. Lloyd has already contacted the Philadelphia Police and is cooperating with them. We will decide on a course of action once we obtain more information about the investigation.”

    Lloyd, 32, is a University of Pennsylvania and Temple’s Beasley School of Law graduated, according to his Linkedin page and makes $63,207 a year, representing the city mostly in federal and state discrimination lawsuits. On his Linkedin page he wrote of the job, “As a result of these responsibilities, I hear the craziest stories – ones regularly driven by the unreasonable mores of lust, anger, passion, and envy.”

    This incident is hardly news: The Inquirer reports that since election day, anti-Trump graffiti has been reported throughout the city. In early November, spray-painted swastikas, racist graffiti and references to Donald Trump and Nazi Germany appeared in South Philadelphia. Anti-Trump graffiti has been reported on bus shelters and on the exterior wall of City Hall, where “Not my President,” was spray painted and removed Nov. 12. Mayor Kenney has denounced the destruction of property, which mirrors similar incidents nationwide. However, on no prior occasions was the alleged perpetrator dumb enough to be a public servant calmly drinking wine while on closed-circuit camera.

    * * *

    To Lloyd the graffiti incident may have seemed like a childish prank, but the chair of the Philadelphia Republican Party, Joe DeFelice, is out for blood demanding his immediate firing. In a statement released this afternoon, DeFelice said the following:

    If the image of an upper-middle class city attorney clad in a blazer and sipping wine while vandalizing an upscale grocery store with an anti-Trump message strikes you as perhaps the most bourgeois sight imaginable, that’s because it is. Nothing can better represent the hysterical pearl-clutching of the ‘progressive’ elite in response to this earth-shattering election, when residents of Chestnut Hill and similar neighborhoods across the country discovered – gasp – that other people have a voice too. The assistant city solicitor in question had ostensibly taken the law into his own hands, since a democratic election didn’t yield his preferred outcome.

     

    For somebody with extensive legal training to feel entitled to vandalize a newly opened super-market strikes us at the Philadelphia Republican Party as an astonishing feat of idiocy. Did the extra glass of Shiraz give him some sort of delusional confidence that there are no cameras on Germantown Ave? The taxpayers should be entrusting exactly none of our faith into this man. He should be fired from our city’s law department immediately.”

    No arrests, or terminations, have been made so far.

  • A MeSSaGe To SaNTa TRuMP…

    SANTA TRUMP

  • "Metals Traders On Red Alert" – Chinese Commodity Bubble 2.0 Just Imploded

    Industrial metals commodity prices plunged by the most since March in the last 2 days as China’s exchanges (once again) clamped down on speculation by tightening trading rules. As Bloomberg reports, for the second time this year, trading has exploded on the nation’s exchanges, pushing prices of everything from zinc to coal to multi-year highs and sending authorities scrambling to deflate the bubble before it bursts.

    Metals brokers described panic earlier this month as the frenzy spread to markets in London and New York, prompting wild swings in prices that show no signs of abating.

    “I can recall only two other occasions in my career where there was such panic and devastating price action in copper but this market today is far less transparent,”

     

    While billions of yuan have poured in from herd-like Chinese retail investors who show little regard for market fundamentals, brokers and traders say even more is coming from an expanding army of deep-pocketed hedge funds. They’re chasing better returns in commodities as stocks and real estate fade, often using algorithms and trading late into the night, when markets in London and New York are most active.

     

    “There is no doubt that the price moves and the bigger volumes worldwide are being driven by the Chinese, and by professional speculators and financial players,” said Tiger Shi, managing partner at brokerage BANDS Financial Ltd., which counts several of those funds as clients. “The western hedge funds and institutional investors don’t really know what’s going on. Often they were used to trading macro factors or Fed policy, but now they find they have fewer advantages.”

    And it was never going to end well…

    Zinc Futures have plunged over 10% in the last 2 days (after surging over 27% since the start of November).

     

    Steel Rebar is tumbling…

     

    And Iron Ore futures have collapsed more… twice…

    Think it's the Trump-Trade? Think again. Fundamentally, as Bloomberg highlights, there is massive oversupply. Iron ore port inventories in China are near the highest since September 2014 and are up 19 percent this year, according to Shanghai Steelhome Information Technology Co. Top producer Vale SA reiterated its output guidance of 360 million to 380 million tons for 2017 on Tuesday and expects to produce 400 million to 420 million tons the year after.

    So what is it? What had driven this panic-buying in industrial commodities? Simple – another Chinese speculative bubble…

    Iron ore and steel futures trimmed their second monthly advance as bourses in Dalian and Shanghai moved to deflate a boom driven partly by speculative trading.

     

    The Dalian Commodity Exchange raised margin requirements and the Shanghai Futures Exchange capped some positions. These measures have taken some speculative steam out of the market, according to Justin Smirk, a senior economist at Westpac Banking Corp.

    As the Chinese commodity bubble of March/April is back and trading volumes explode relative to open interest…

    NOTE: SHFE updated their Zinc "control measures" once again tonight, capping new positions at 1500 lots.

     

     

    Thank to hot money flows…

    “Commodities market volatility is liquidity driven, as money from commercial bank wealth management products and private banking accounts flow into the market seeking higher return,”

    And an increase in algos…

    The use of algorithmic trading, in which computers execute multiple orders in milliseconds, is turbo-charging volume and volatility, according to Fu Peng, a portfolio manager at Lianzhan Global Macro Fund Management Co. About a third of activity on Chinese exchanges is executed by automated commands, which generates more volume and greater momentum on global markets, Shi estimates.

     

    “The machine component in the market is now so much bigger as is the onshore retail and fund involvement on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and OTC options.”

    Similar to the last frenzy in April, the government-owned exchanges have stepped in to cool trading by raising fees and margins, or cutting the number of new positions allowed daily. In the latest move, the Shanghai Futures volume and turnover have since come off their highs but prices are still swinging.

    So with the China Commoditty Echo Bubble now bursting, the big question is, where does the hot money flow next? As Socgen shows, Chinese 'gamblers' have chased stocks (and lost), dumped capital (Yuan loss), piled into commodities (in March/April) and lost, rotated into housing (until the government choked that off), and then sent bond yields to record lows…

    As Fu at Lianzhan Global Macro Fund noted:

    “The nation’s supply-side reforms had a big impact on the market balance, and that’s the fundamentals behind the trading,”

     

    But at the same time, we’ve got too much money there. There have been no returns from investment in industries. The stock market is neither dead nor alive. Investment in real estate also got curbed. So all the money is rushing into commodities.”

    But now, Chinese housing is at record highs, Chinese stocks are falling, Chinese bonds are falling, and Chinese commodities are tumbling… the only thing with momentum for the hot money to chase in the currency… and we suspect (by recent liquidity withdrawals) that The PBOC has had enough of that.

    “The massive and unprecedented surge in Chinese trading volume in base metals over the past month — but especially since the election — has put LME metals traders on red alert,” Tai Wong, director of commodity products trading at BMO Capital Markets in New York.

  • Reddit To Ban "Most Toxic" Trump Supporters After CEO Abused With "Personal Message Harassment"

    Just a few days after getting caught editing user comments, the CEO of Reddit, Steve Huffman, is threatening to ban 100’s of the site’s “most toxic users,” most of whom are Trump supporters from the popular r/The_Donald subreddit thread.  Just so we’re clear, Huffman pissed off a bunch of users by edited their comments without their consent, was forced to apologize publicly, got a lot of blowback for his ridiculous behavior and is now banning users who called him out?  According to Yahoo News, that sums it up fairly accurately.

    Social media website Reddit Inc, known for its commitment to free speech, will crack down on online harassment by banning or suspending users who target others, starting with those who have directed abuse at Chief Executive Steve Huffman.

     

    Huffman said in an interview with Reuters that Reddit’s content policy prohibits harassment, but that it had not been adequately enforced.

     

    “Personal message harassment is the most cut and dry,” he said. “Right now we are in an interesting position where my inbox is full of them, it’s easy to start with me.”

     

    As well as combing through Huffman’s inbox, Reddit will monitor user reports, add greater filtering capacity, and take a more proactive role in policing its platform rather than relying on community moderators.

    Of course, this all comes just a couple days after Huffman used his administrative privileges to redirect abuse he was receiving on a thread on r/The_Donald to the community’s moderators – making it look as if it was intended for them. Huffman has subsequently said it was all an innocent “prank,” though the apology he posted last week seemed to indicated it was more akin to a nervous breakdown.

    Huffman offered the following apology admitting that he “messed with the “fuck u/spez” comments” and that “as the CEO, I shouldn’t play such games.”

     

    Reddit

     

    Huffman notes that, in the past, Reddit relied on community moderators to enforce site rules but Trump supporters are apparently just too unruly.

    In the past, Reddit has worked with moderators of communities to try to enforce its rules.

     

    With r/The_Donald in particular, “we haven’t found that to be particularly effective. We might see flashes of success, but things kind of revert,” Huffman said.

     

    Under its new strategy, Reddit will take a more active role in dealing with troublemakers, who Huffman said were an “infinitesimal” portion of Reddit’s 250 million monthly visitors.

    And while he insists the move to ban certain users isn’t political, Huffman admits that the “first wave of bans will likely be skewed to the r/The_Donald community.”

    He stressed that the move was not political.

     

    We don’t want to be censoring political beliefs, but then they do misbehave,” he said. “That’s why we have worked so closely with the r/The_Donald community. We tell them: don’t force us to ban you.

     

    The first wave of bans will likely be skewed to the r/The_Donald community because “that is a catalyst for a lot of this right now. That community is stirred up,” Huffman said.

     

    In a draft of a blog post to be published on Wednesday, Huffman said he had been asked by many Reddit users “to ban r/The_Donald outright, but he had rejected that idea, because “if there is anything about this election that we have learned, it is that there are communities that feel alienated and just want to be heard, and Reddit has always been a place where those voices can be heard.”

    Since Huffman suddenly seems quite concerned with enforcing Reddit’s harassment rules in a fair and non-partisan way, we’re curious whether Reddit also has rules against soliciting advice on how to violate the Federal Records Act and Congressional subpoenas?  If so, we’d suggest he take a look back through Paul Combetta’s history.

    Combetta

  • Obama Student Loan Foregiveness Plan To Cost Taxpayers $137 Billion, GAO Finds

    To our complete shock, the Government Accountability Office has released a report blasting the Education Department’s understanding of basic mathematics and accounting concepts after finding the department drastically underestimated the costs of Obama’s student loan forgiveness programs.  The 100-page report entitled “Federal Student Loans:  Education Needs to Improve Its Income Driven Repayment Plan Budget Estimates” found that taxpayers could be on the hook for $137BN of student loans to be forgiven over the coming years as a result of Obama’s executive actions on “income-driven repayment” (IDR) plans.

    For the fiscal year 2017 budget, the U.S. Department of Education (Education) estimates that all federally issued Direct Loans in Income-Driven Repayment (IDR) plans will have government costs of $74 billion, higher than previous budget estimates. IDR plans are designed to help ease student debt burden by setting loan payments as a percentage of borrower income, extending repayment periods from the standard 10 years to up to 25 years, and forgiving remaining balances at the end of that period. While actual costs cannot be known until borrowers repay their loans, GAO found that current IDR plan budget estimates are more than double what was originally expected for loans made in fiscal years 2009 through 2016 (the only years for which original estimates are available). This growth is largely due to the rising volume of loans in IDR plans.

     

    Education’s approach to estimating IDR plan costs and quality control practices do not ensure reliable budget estimates. Weaknesses in this approach may cause costs to be over- or understated by billions of dollars.

    Student Loans

     

    As the Wall Street Journal points out, the so-called IDR plans set caps on borrowers’ monthly student loan payments at 10% of discretionary income, which is defined as earnings above 150% of the poverty level.  Then, whatever principal balance is left over on the loans at their maturity date is simply forgiven. 

    The report, to be released on Wednesday by the Government Accountability Office, shows the Obama administration’s main strategy for helping student-loan borrowers is proving far more costly than previously thought. The report also presents a scathing review of the Education Department’s accounting methods, which have understated the costs of its various debt-relief plans by tens of billions of dollars.

     

    Senate Budget Committee Chairman Mike Enzi (R., Wyo.) ordered the report last year amid a sharp increase in enrollment in income-driven repayment plans, which the Obama administration has heavily promoted to help borrowers avoid default. The most generous version caps a borrower’s monthly payment at 10% of discretionary income, which is defined as any earnings above 150% of the poverty level.

     

    That formula typically reduces monthly payments of borrowers by hundreds of dollars. Any remaining balance is then forgiven after 10 or 20 years, depending on whether the borrower works in the public or private sector.

     

    Enrollment in the plans has more than tripled in the past three years to 5.3 million borrowers as of June, or 24% of all former students who borrowed directly from the government and are now required to be making payments. They collectively owe $355 billion.

    Congress approved the IDR plans in the 1990s and 2000s, but Obama used executive actions, starting in 2010, to extend the most-generous terms to millions of borrowers.  Ironically, that is precisely when loan volumes under the program started to skyrocket.

    Student Loans

     

    While there are numerous viewpoints on how to address the student loan crisis in America, we kind of like this guy’s idea that borrowers should stop playing video games in their parents’ basements and get a job…it just might be crazy enough to work.

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Today’s News 30th November 2016

  • "Dear President Putin…"

    Submitted by Paul Craig Roberts,

    Vladimir Putin
    President of Russia
    Moscow
    28 November 2016

    Dear President Putin,

    Now that CIA agent Craig Timberg posing as a Washington Post reporter has blown my cover and exposed me as a Russian agent, I was wondering if I might ask you for a Russian passport and a bit of diplomatic cover, perhaps assistant press officer at the Russian embassy in Washington, until I can get out of the country. I saw that you gave a passport to Steven Seagal, so I am hopeful that being a Russian agent is as important as teaching martial arts to Russians.

    I don’t know what the pay scale for Russian agents is, but whatever I have coming to me please deposit in a Russian bank. The Swiss banks are no longer useful as the Swiss government allowed Washington to write its banking laws. Perhaps also you could line me up with a publisher for my memoirs—“My Life As A Putin Stooge.”

    We need to get on with this ASAP as the Washington Post has the FBI on my tail. They will be very angry at me for deceiving them all those years when I held top secret and higher security clearances while I was a Russian agent. Any day now the Washington Post might discover that my fellow KGB agent Ronald Reagan and I cut taxes on the rich in order to make capitalism so oppressive that the American people would rise up and overthrow it. Boy did we fool the left-wing!

    I regret that the Washington Post got wise to me being a Russian agent, but it wasn’t my fault. I think the leak came from one of those Atlanticist Integrationists you are stuck with in your government. Better check up on it as 200 of the Russian financed websites have already been exposed.

    Better have someone bring me the passport and diplomatic appointment. I would be nabbed by TSA if I fly to Washington to collect the documents. A diplomatic appointment is better than asylum, because Washington, like the old Soviet Union, doesn’t recognize political asylum. Just ask Julian Assange.

    Don’t let the Atlanticist Integrationists convince you that my exposure as a Russian agent is just a CIA ruse to plant an agent on you. My criticism of Washington’s policy of raising tensions between nuclear powers and support of your policy of reducing tensions is not spy cover. I really do prefer that the world not be blown up in thermo-nuclear war. This is a suspect view in the US, but I hope it is an acceptable one in Russia.

    Looking forward to that passport.

    Paul Craig Roberts

  • Steve Mnuchin Selected by Trump for Treasury Secretary, a Look at Previous Secretaries and Affiliations

    Trump selected Steve Mnuchin to be the next Treasury Secretary. Steve is a Goldman man. What else is new? Let’s have a look at the recent men who’ve filled this role in government and their affiliations.

    Steve Mnuchin: Parter at Goldman Sachs, Yale, Dad worked for Goldman for three decades, brief gig at Soros hedge fund, Hollywood producer.
    Jack Lew: COO of Citi prop trading unit that correctly bet on housing collapse in 2008, Harvard, Council on Foreign Relations.
    Hank Paulson: Former CEO of Goldman Sachs, Dartmouth, worked at Pentagon and in Nixon administration.
    John Snow: Former CEO of CSX, Chairman Cerberus Capital Management, served under several administrations and shilled on a sundry of boards.
    Paul O’Neil: Former CEO of Alcoa, Member of Carnegie Mellon University’s dean’s advisory council.
    Larry Summers: Former President of Harvard, managing partner at DE Shaw, Chief Economist at the World Bank.
    Robert Rubin: 26 Years at Goldman Sachs, London School of Economics, Yale, Co-Chair of the Council on Foreign Relations, Chair of Citi
    Lloyd Bentsen: University of Texas, WW2 Vet, promoted to Lt. Col and discharged in 1947, wanted to Nuke N. Korea, served on board of Lockheed Martin, helped convince republicans to pass NAFTA while serving under Clinton.

    Nice group of guys.

    Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

  • China Liquidity Crisis Deepens, Spreads Across Asia

    Having exposed the deepening liquidity crisis in China previously, tonight's action across AsiaPac money-markets suggests – despite US equity record highs – all is very much not well below the surface of the global financial system. Short-term China repo rates have exploded to 20-month highs, Hong Kong Dollar money-market rates have jumped to the highest since May 2009, and Yen basis swaps are showing the most extreme demand for dollars since Lehman

    China liquidty conditions have gone from bad to worse with 14-day repo spiking to 6.00% – the highest in 20 months…

    To be clear this means a Chinese bank was willing to pay 6% to ensure liquidty for the next 2 weeks (compared to 2.5% yesterday!)

    Also notable is the upward pressure this has put in Offshore Yuan versus the dollar…

     

    Pushing Hong Kong Dollar HIBOR up to its highest since May 2009…

     

    It appears that Japan is suffering too as USD-JPY basis swaps have crashed to record lows – the most desperate demand for USDollar liquidity since Lehman…

     

    Finally, it's not just AsiaPac as our index of global dollar liquidity (BIS' new 'fear' index) is in grave trouble, trumbling to 4-month lows…

     

     

    As we noted previously, quoted by Bloomberg, Wu Sijie, bond trader at China Merchants Bank said "tightening interbank liquidity and the expectation of even higher short-term borrowing costs are driving up swap costs and affecting sentiment on the cash bond market."

    Meanwhile, signalling no change at all in its posture, overnight the PBOC drained funds in open-market operations for the fourth consecutive day, bringing the total withdrawal to 130 billion yuan.

    Why is all of the above relevant? Because while so far the global capital markets have been immune to the substantial tightening in financial conditions resulting from the sharp rise in the US Dollar and US interest rates, a similar tightening in China – which is now clearly taking place – will be far more difficult for global risk assets to ignore.

  • All Aboard! Trump's Express Train To The Future

    Authored by Bonner & Partners' Bill Bonner, annotated by Acting-Man's Pater Tenebrarum,

    Free Money!

    Last week, the Dow punched up above 19,000 – a new all-time record. And on Monday, the Dow, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the small-cap Russell 2000 each hit new all-time highs. The last time that happened was on the last day of December 1999.

     

    1-djia-daily-ann

    Ironically, two events that were almost universally expected to trigger large stock market declines were followed by quite rapid and strong gains. Would the market have fallen if Hillary Clinton had won the presidential election? That would have confounded expectations as well. Also, the S&P 500 declined for nine days in a row (even if not by much) just before the election – at the time Clinton was still widely expected to win. it remains to be seen whether and for how long the recent discounting of Nirvana will last – click to enlarge.

    Just a few months later, the dot-com bubble burst and the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 80% of its value. And the U.S. stock market, overall, lost about 50%. But investors are bullish. They believe President-elect Trump will be good for stocks.

    He is supposed to arrive in Washington for his inauguration and march directly over to the Capitol to demand a tax cut. This will return over $6 trillion to the private sector over the next 10 years… not to mention a proposed $1 trillion splurge on “infrastructure.”

    As Trump’s chief adviser (and former Goldman alum), Stephen Bannon, explained to Michael Wolff of The Hollywood Reporter last week:

    “Like [Andrew] Jackson’s populism, we’re going to build an entirely new political movement,” he says. “It’s everything related to jobs. The conservatives are going to go crazy. I’m the guy pushing a trillion-dollar infrastructure plan. With negative interest rates throughout the world, it’s the greatest opportunity to rebuild everything. Shipyards, iron works, get them all jacked up. We’re just going to throw it up against the wall and see if it sticks.”

    Whew!

    Everybody’s talking about the feds’ opportunity to “invest” free money.   It makes us nervous; we know how hard it is to get a good return on investment – especially when you don’t know what you’re doing.

    The government pays just over 2% on 10-year loans. If inflation over the next decade is anywhere near its long-term average, the real cost of funds is roughly zero.  The money, say the Big Spenders in Washington, will be free.

     

    biggovernment

    And henceforth it will be getting fed for free!

     

    All Aboard!

    In the pages of the Financial Times is another voice for investing money that doesn’t exist. Here’s Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer speaking to the Council on Foreign Relations think tank:

    “Macroeconomic policy does not have to be confined to monetary policy,” said Mr. Fischer…

     

    “Certain fiscal policies, particularly those that increase productivity, can increase the potential of the economy,” he said.

    This is a train that’s going to sell out fast. Everyone is going to want to board. Free money. Jobs. Inflation. Infrastructure. What’s not to like? Who will not want to be a passenger on this express train to Fantasyland?

    Already on board, near the head of the train, is our friend Richard Duncan at Macro Watch. Richard, a specialist in credit analysis who has worked with the World Bank, shares our view: The world economy is a giant bubble waiting to pop.

    But his prescription is different. We would happily get out a pin and give the bubble a prick. Not that we like to see innocent people suffer. But we hate to see guilty people not suffer.

    Richard, on the other hand, is a kind-hearted soul, an optimist with a warm and uplifting view of human nature. He can’t bear thinking about the widows and orphans stuck in “another Great Depression,” which he believes would result if the credit bubble bursts.

    All it would take is a big enough increase in interest rates. With so much debt in the world, he says, higher rates would be catastrophic. How to avoid it? Richard:

    “Very large-scale government investment in the industries and technologies of the future will lift America’s poor out of poverty. It will save the middle class. And it will make the most prosperous segments of our society wealthy – and healthy – beyond their wildest dreams.”

    In an open video-letter to Donald Trump, he proposes that the feds should identify 10,000 of America’s “most promising entrepreneurs.” They should all have good ideas for the future – biotech, nanotech, green tech, whatever – but it should have a “tech” at the end. Then the feds should invest in their businesses, forming public-private partnerships.

     

    big-govt

    Allocation of scarce resources by government bureaucrats – what could possibly go wrong?

     

    Hell Train

    Our cynical heart stops for a second. All that money up for grabs. All those cost-plus contracts! Architects’ phones must be ringing already; insiders are planning new wings for their Aspen vacation pads. These are government “investments” – no need to ever satisfy a customer or ever show a profit.

    And we’re talking 10 times more money than the $100 billion in Corn Belt giveaways… or the penny-candy subsidies to sugar tycoons, the Fanjul brothers (who, taking no chances, put on Miami campaign fundraisers for both Clinton and Trump). But Richard is already in the observation car, enjoying the sun on his face, dreaming.

    Imagine what that would do,” he suggests, adding helpfully, “It would really Make America Great Again.

    Our imagination is not up to the challenge. We close our eyes. We scrunch up our face. We just can’t do it. We can’t imagine a group of hacks, has-beens, and bureaucratic chair warmers capable of identifying the “industries of the future.”

     

    miracle_cartoon

    Richard Duncan probably figures that they will be helped by experts… and miracles will occur as well! It’s almost fool-proof…

     

    No one else has been able to foresee the future. How could they? Venture capitalists, even when their own money is at stake, are notoriously bad at backing successful futuristic enterprises. The feds, “investing” other people’s money, are bound to bet on the wrong ones.

    But wait –  our imagination has finally rebooted. And what’s this?  No train to the future? What we see is a runaway locomotive. Incompetence at the throttle, flimflam stoking the engine, and impossible, pie-in-the-sky hocus-pocus putting on a show for the passengers.

    A hellish train, in other words – loaded with trillions of dollars of looted resources – misallocated, stolen, and frittered away.

     

    train-to-hell

    The express train to hell. It is possible that tickets for the train to the future were sold out. Better luck next time.

  • Horseman Capital Asks "Is China Running Out Of Money"

    At the start of 2016, many financial pundits mocked Kyle Bass and a handful of other China skeptics for predicting that China’s economic difficulties, and accelerating capital outflows, would translate into a continued devaluation for the Yuan. Less than a year later, with the Yuan plunging to all time lows, just shy of USDCNH 7.00, they were right.

    And, as Horseman Capital’s Russell Clark writes in his latest Market Views note, in which he asks if “China is running out of money”, adding that “if Chinese foreign reserves continue to fall and the PBOC wants to maintain control of the exchange rate, they will need to face some difficult choices,” the one most difficult choice facing Beijing may be the one which assures far more weakness for the Yuan in the near future: a devaluation.

    Here are Clarke’s thoughts.

    IS CHINA RUNNING OUT OF MONEY?

    Since the global financial crisis, China has had a very strong currency, even with the recent devaluation of the Chinese Yuan.

    China has a managed exchange rate. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has had to step in to the exchange market to buy any USD coming into China. To buy the USD coming into China, the PBOC has had to create CNY for this purpose. Typically, to soak up these new CNY, the PBOC has issued CNY bonds, as well as having very high reserve requirements on the banks to control the supply of CNY.

    The PBOC is like any other bank, and it needs to match assets with liabilities. On the asset side, by far its biggest assets are foreign reserves. On the liability side are domestic deposits. For many years, foreign reserves were much larger than deposits, but now the gap is shrinking rapidly as foreign currency assets fall.

    If Chinese foreign reserves continue to fall and the PBOC wants to maintain control of the exchange rate, they will need to face some difficult choices. First of all, it could raise interest rates to try and make the Yuan more attractive and reduce outflows. This however would be negative for growth, a priority of the Chinese Communist Party. The other option is to reduce the holdings of deposits at the PBOC. The large holdings of deposits at PBOC is driven by the very high reserve requirements of the Chinese banking system, and previous cuts in the reserve requirements have reduced deposits at least temporarily.

    This leaves the PBOC with a dilemma. Raising rates will restrict growth but defend the currency, while cutting rates or reserve rates for banks will encourage more currency weakness. One way to think about how high interest rates need to rise to stop a currency from falling is to look at how weak a currency has been over the last twelve months. You then compare this to the difference in 10 year bond rates, and the movement in the exchange rate over the last 12 months to get an idea of the interest rates increase needed to attract US dollars. The idea is that if a currency has been weak, but interest rates are relatively high, then you are being adequately compensated. Conversely, if the currency has been weak, and the interest rates are relatively low, then rates will need to rise. Currently, it suggests Chinese 10 year rates need to be 6.5% higher, to halt currency weakness.

    Given the large increase in rates needed to slow Chinese Yuan devaluation, devaluation must start to look like the more likely move. South Korea faced a very similar situation in 1997. In the mid-90s, Korean foreign reserves began to fall, like they are in China today. We have added Japanese foreign reserves to show that the fall in reserves was a Korean specific issue.

    Like the Chinese Yuan, the Korean Won was a managed exchange rate that began to depreciate slowly then quickly.

    Below we produce the same graphs, but replace Korea with China.

    Given the huge increase in debt in China in recent years, such a rate increase seems very unlikely to me. Investors should be prepared for bigger falls in the Chinese Yuan.

  • Why Are So Many Among The Elite Building Luxury Bunkers In Preparation For An Imminent "Apocalypse"?

    Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

    Do they know something that the rest of us do not?  There are tens of millions of ordinary Americans that are feeling really good about the future now that Donald Trump has won the election, but meanwhile the elite are feverishly constructing luxury bunkers at a pace unlike anything we have ever seen before.  So why are so many among the elite preparing for an imminent “apocalypse” when tens of millions of other Americans are anticipating a new era of peace and prosperity?  Are they smarter than most of the rest of us, or are they simply being paranoid?

    Without a doubt, something is going on among the elite.  Earlier today, WND published an article that discussed the fact that wealthy people “are quietly moving away from major cities” all over the globe because of concerns about security…

    Widespread media reports as well as independent investigations from groups such as New World Wealth suggest wealthy people around the globe are quietly moving away from major cities because of fears of social instability. Increasing crime, terrorism and rising racial tensions have all been identified as factors driving the exodus. Even the Daily Beast reported the introduction of large numbers of Muslim refugees into Europe has made once prosperous areas fraught with danger, in the opinion of some security experts.

    And just a few weeks ago a Hollywood Reporter article entitled “Panic, Anxiety Spark Rush to Build Luxury Bunkers for L.A.’s Superrich” talked about how “Oscar winners, sports stars and Bill Gates are building lavish bunkers” because of their anxiety about what is coming next.  The following is a short excerpt from that article…

    Given the increased frequency of terrorist bombings and mass shootings and an under-lying sense of havoc fed by divisive election politics, it’s no surprise that home security is going over the top and hitting luxurious new heights. Or, rather, new lows, as the average depth of a new breed of safe haven that occupies thousands of square feet is 10 feet under or more. Those who can afford to pull out all the stops for so-called self-preservation are doing so — in a fashion that goes way beyond the submerged corrugated metal units adopted by reality show “preppers” — to prepare for anything from nuclear bombings to drastic climate-change events. Gary Lynch, GM at Rising S Bunkers, a Texas-based company that specializes in underground bunkers and services scores of Los Angeles residences, says that sales at the most upscale end of the market — mainly to actors, pro athletes and politicians (who require signed NDAs) — have increased 700 percent this year compared with 2015, and overall sales have risen 150 percent. “Any time there is a turbulent political landscape, we see a spike in our sales. Given this election is as turbulent as it is, we are gearing up for an even bigger spike,” says marketing director Brad Roberson of sales of bunkers that start at $39,000 and can run $8.35 million or more (FYI, a 12-stall horse shelter is $98,500).

    This is all very odd, because among the general population interest in “prepping” has hit a multi-year low.  In fact, sales of emergency food and supplies are way down at the moment across the entire industry.

    So once again the question must be asked – do the elite know something that the rest of us do not?

    If they don’t, why are they spending so much time, effort and money on such extraordinary preparations?

    For instance, down in Texas one group of investors is constructing “a $300 million luxury community replete with underground homes”

    An investor group is planning for a doomsday scenario by building a $300 million luxury community replete with underground homes. There will also be air-lock blast doors designed for people worried about a dirty bomb or other disaster and off-grid energy and water production.

     

    The development, called Trident Lakes, is northeast of Dallas.

     

    Residents will enjoy an equestrian center, 18-hole golf course, polo fields, zip lines and gun ranges. Retail shops, restaurants and a row of helipads are also in the works. For those looking to “get away,” they’ll also be able to enjoy three white sand beaches and a neighborhood spa.

    Most of us could hardly even imagine such luxury, and this is yet another example of the growing gap between the ultra-wealthy and the rest of us in this country.

    If you do happen to be one of the ultra-wealthy, perhaps you may be interested in purchasing one of the extremely expensive U-shaped “Earthships” that one company has been constructing for the elite…

    Billionaires are buying up “indestructible” alien boltholes to seek sanctuary in during alien Armageddon or more-likely nuclear war and disaster.

     

    The US company creating the $1.5million “Earthship” eco-structures says humans “must evolve” and insists they “will soon be a necessity” for our species “to survive on this planet.”

     

    The bizarre U-shaped hideaways, which can reportedly survive in any climate, can be deployed to any part of the world and are self-sufficient enough to survive in isolation – during a killer virus outbreak or a radiation catastrophe.

    I have to admit that I felt a twinge of jealousy when I first learned about these “Earthships”.  They are completely self-sufficient, they are environmentally-friendly, and they sound like they are quite comfortable. 

    The following is what one reporter discovered when she visited a community of these “Earthships”…

    In addition to the cord-cutting power and self-sustaining water supply, each abode contains its own greenhouse. I could forage for figs, bananas, pineapple, broccoli, rosemary and chives in my fluffy socks. Or if the zombies weren’t looking, I could dash over to my neighbor’s place for supper. The Phoenix, a three-bedroom that sleeps six, dedicates one-third of its space to food production. Its tropical jungle supports parakeets and cockatiels (not for consumption) and a garden bursting with fruits and vegetables, including grapes, artichokes, lemons, melons, kale, squash, hot peppers and mushrooms that cling to a log.

     

    Chickens cluck around the back yard, which features a sunken den with a grill for coop-to-kebob meals. An indoor fishpond once contained a robust stock of tilapia before a group of guests threw a fish fry. Now, the littlest survivors swim laps with koi. For the dairy course, the staff is considering resident goats.

    It sounds wonderful.

    But once again, why go to all of this effort if a new era of peace and prosperity for humanity is right around the corner?

    I really like what Carl Gallups had to say about this.  Carl is the author of Be Thou Prepared, and this is what he told WND about the preparations that the elite are making…

    “I think that the rich and elite are becoming increasingly aware of the dangerous and potentially unstable world in which we now reside,” he warned. “Massive instances of civil unrest, even in America, are becoming a very real possibility. Internal terror attacks, swelling illegal alien populations, an influx of Islamic refugees, increasing racial discord, ambushing police officers, the rule of law continually being trampled by the political elite and an almost complete collapse of trust in the mainstream media – all of this has led to widespread cynicism and distrust among the population as a whole.”

     

    Gallups noted “the rich usually have deeper connections to reliable information and prediction sources, and most of them have the means to take immediate action.”

    I believe that Carl Gallups is right on the money.

    Normally I am extremely hard on the elite, but in this case I believe that they are showing much more wisdom than the general population.

    So many people are crying “peace and safety” right now, and yet we are right in the middle of what I have labeled “the danger zone“.

    Our world is becoming more unstable with each passing day, but there is so much apathy among the American people at the moment.

    I just don’t understand it.

    The self-destructive behavior that we are engaging in as a nation is a recipe for national suicide, and the warning signs are all around us, but because disaster has not struck yet most people seem to believe that the warnings that they have been hearing are not true.

    Meanwhile, the elite are preparing extremely hard for an imminent “apocalypse”, and I have a feeling that they are going to end up looking like the smart ones once it is all said and done.

  • Aussie Housing Market Collapses: Building Approvals Crash 25%

    Following September's 9.3% MoM plunge in Aussie home approvals, hopes were high that October would see a bounce (expectations were for a 2% gain) as central bankers jawboned confidence higher. However, it didn't… Building approvals collapsed 12.6% MoM and a shocking 24.9% year-over-year decline is equal to the worst drop since Lehman. Ironically, just this month Aussie Treasurer eased restrictions on foreign buyers (otherwise known as bag holders it would seem).

    It's been weak year anyway but this is an utter disaster as the Aussie housing bubble finally pops… (on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis the year-over-year drop is 28% – the biggest since Nov 2008)

    This is the lowest level of building approvals per capita in 2 years as it seems China's credit impulse has faded entirely.

    The cracks have been showing with default rates on the rise (as AFR reports)

    Mirvac said it experienced a rise in the default rate for the settlement of off-the-plan residential sales, above its historic average of 1 per cent.

    On top of defaults, the Australian apartment markets – which boomed in the last four years – are facing other fresh risks…

    On Friday, HSBC said an oversupply of apartments in Melbourne and Brisbane could send unit prices down by as much as 6 per cent in 2017.

     

    The apartment building boom, an ongoing concern for the Reserve Bank of Australia, especially in inner city Melbourne is likely to "start showing through" in price drops of between 2 per cent and 6 per cent in that city next year, HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham said in a note.

     

    It's a similar story in Brisbane where apartment prices are forecast to fall by as much as 4 per cent.

     

    "A national apartment building boom, which has been part of the rebalancing act, is likely to deliver some oversupply in the Melbourne and Brisbane apartment markets, which is expected to see apartment price falls in these markets," Mr Bloxham said.

    "A modest shakeout in the inner-city apartment markets in Brisbane and Melbourne, as we are forecasting, is not expected to have a broad-based impact on the overall housing market or economy."

    Which perhaps explains why Aussie Treasurer Scott Morrison said the government will make changes to the foreign investment framework to allow foreign buyers to buy an off-the-plan dwelling that another foreign buyer has failed to settle as a new dwelling.

    The federal government has announced it will make it easier for foreigners to buy new apartments amid concerns of a looming glut that will drive down prices.

     

    Previously, on-sale of a purchased off the plan apartment was regarded as a second hand sale, which is not open to foreign buyers. Foreign buyers can only buy new dwellings.

     

    The move effectively opens up the pool of buyers who can soak a potential flood of apartments hitting the residential markets due to failed settlements.

    Hoping for some of the capital taking flight from China to rush down, we are sure.

    By way of reminder, here is David Llewellyn-Smith via Acting-Man.com, to explain why the Australian property bubble is on a scale like no other…

    Yesterday Citi produced a new index which pinned the Australian property bubble at 16 year highs:

    Bubble trouble. Whether we label them bubbles, the Australian economy has experienced a series of developments that potentially could have the economy lurching from boom to bust and back. In recent years these have included:

    •  the record run up in commodity prices and subsequent correction;
    •  the associated boom in mining investment and current reversal;
    •  record low bond yields;
    •  the boom in housing construction, specifically apartments, that was spurred by the low interest rates.

     

    Housing indicators in the bubble meter are at record highs but interest rates remain at record lows. Typically monetary policy is well into tightening mode at this stage in the housing cycle. A destabilizing housing burst (both in activity and prices) is a clear risk, particularly the longer the upswing runs.

     

    r3-1

    Click to enlarge.

     

     

    The size of the Australian property bubble is old news. It’s extreme in valuation terms:

    dsfg

    Click to enlarge.

     

    zdfb

    Click to enlarge.

     

    Underpinned by world-beating household debt:

    zseg

    Click to enlarge.

     

    And nose-bleed levels of foreign borrowing:

    wry

    Click to enlarge.

     

    What is less well understood is how such a large and sustained bubble has distorted the Australian political economy.  The bubble has been running for twenty years (which some argue proves it is no such thing) and every time it has been threatened it was saved by luck or a bailout which sold off a little more of Australia’s liberal democracy.

    In 2003, the bubble first threatened to burst as the Reserve Bank raised interest rates. But the bubble was rescued by the combined forces of demand side fiscal stimulus for first home buyers in the form of large cash grants, and the arrival the Chinese commodity boom that flooded the economy with people and income. The government of the day learned its lesson and economic reform has been dead ever since!

    In 2008, the bubble was jeopardised again when the pipeline of offshore debt froze solid and major Australian banks were rendered insolvent given they could not roll over their enormous foreign debts. The government of the day rode to their rescue with guarantees to all offshore funding, directly bought mortgage backed securities (which it still holds), unleashed the largest proportional fiscal stimulus in the world, doubled the first home buyer grants, opened the spigots on foreign investor buying, and other measures. Almost all of it violated existing financial sector architecture and governance and virtually none of it has been wound back. No housing market in the world enjoyed such wholesale and limitless support.

    In 2011, the bubble again faltered when the China commodity boom returned and raised interest rates. But, when threatened, the bubble was bailed out, this time by a central bank that desperately cut interest rates to all-time lows because it had over-estimated the durability of the commodities boom, and an influx of Chinese capital that was allowed to price-out local buyers with barely a word of protest from regulatory authorities.

    While those three saves of the bubble have been widely admired as solid Keynesian policy-making, and have allowed Australia to claim a “miracle” economic expansion of 25 years, they have also transformed its economy and political economy.

    The Australian economy is now structurally uncompetitive as capital inflows persistently keep its currency too high, usually chasing land prices that ensure input costs are amazingly inflated as well. Unsurprisingly, Australian manufacturing’s share of outlook has collapsed to 5.8% of GDP (even before the exit of car manufacturing scheduled for the next 12 months) half that of the supposedly “hollowed out” US and UK economies, and on a par with the financial haven of Luxembourg. Wider tradables sectors have been hit hard as well and Australian exports are now a lousy 20% of GDP despite the largest mining boom in history.

    The other major economic casualty has been multi-factor productivity. It has been virtually zero for fifteen years as capital was consistently and massively mis-allocated into unproductive assets. To grow at all today, the nation now runs chronic twin deficits with the current account at -4% and Budget deficit of -3% of GDP.

    But the damage is in some ways even worse in the political economy. How have Australian authorities responded to this growing crisis? By egging it on.

    Not only are they running unsustainable deficits into looming sovereign downgrades, they have sustained historically very high rates of immigration to attempt to back-fill and support property prices. These levels have been so aggressive in the major eastern cities, which are now projecting a near doubling of their populations within 40 years (from four-plus to eight million), that elections are now routinely won and lost on issues of choked infrastructure, and a vehemently anti-immigration movement is afoot in the polity. Younger generations are also boiling over with anger at being locked out of housing markets. A full half of first home buyers rely upon parents for equity and their numbers have collapsed to just 12% of total sales.

    Five prime ministers in six years have come and gone as standards of living fall in part owing to massive immigration inappropriate to economic circumstances and other property-friendly policy. The most recent national election boiled down to a virtual referendum on real estate taxation subsidies. The victor, the conservative Coalition party, betrayed every market principle its possesses by mounting an extreme fear campaign against the Labor party’s proposal to remove negative gearing. This tax policy allows more than one million Australians to engage in a negative carry into property in the hope of capital gains. In a nation of just 24 million, 1.3 million Australians lose an average of $9k per annum on this strategy thanks to the tax break.

    The campaign against tax reform was led by former head of Goldman Sachs Australia, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, who is a large Australian property-holder, and Treasurer Scott Morrison, who is the former head of research at the Property Council of Australia, the nation’s leading realty lobby. Australia’s 225 politicians hold a combined property portfolio worth over $300m.

    The property corruption has even undermined the nation’s strategic outlook. The large wave of Chinese immigrants and investors have been accompanied by a hard-edged soft power drive from Beijing that is sorely undermining Australia’s commitment to its traditional US alliance partner. Chinese bribery scandals have erupted in the parliament, usually from property-based sources, and have clearly perverted policy-making. So much so, that Australia’s defence and espionage agencies are in a rising panic that Australia is literally auctioning its strategic outlook to Chinese property speculators.

    How could all of this happen without the media holding it to account? As the economy gets ever more reliant upon its great foreign-funded housing ponzi scheme, and the political economy wraps ever more tightly around it, Australian media has been engulfed as well. Aussie media is a duopoly divided between a conservative Murdoch press and liberal Fairfax press. But both are largely loss-making old media empires whose only major growth profit centres are the nation’s two largest real estate portals, realestate.com.au and Domain. Thus neither reports real estate with any objective other than the further inflation of prices. Indeed newspaper (print and online) operations are nothing more than loss-leaders for over-excited real estate eyeballs. In the event that the Australian bubble were to pop then Australians will certainly be the last to know and the propaganda is so thick that they may never find out until they actually try to sell!

    Before the year 2000, the Australian economy was a vibrant mix of world-leading productivity growth, liberalised tradable sectors balanced between commodities, services and manufacturing, solid household wealth, a reasonable external position, a clean public balance sheet and reliable institutions.

    Today, it is a wildly imbalanced propertocracy with enormous offshore debts, a polity soaked by a Goebbels-like property propaganda machine, and a government run by realty carpet-baggers willing to sell their children to Chinese communists so long long as they pick up a three bedroom apartment along with little Johnny.

    In a world replete with bubbles, rarely has one been quite so complete!

  • Trump Reaches Deal To Keep 1,000 Carrier Jobs In The U.S.

    Nine months ago the video of a plant-full of American workers getting the news that they were 'fired' due to Carrier International moving its air-conditioning plant from Indiana to Mexico went viral and became a meme for Trump's "America First" plans. Today, according to CNBC's David Faber, the Trump team and United Technologies have reached an agreement on keeping close to 1,000 factory jobs at the Carrier plant in Indiana.

    As a reminder, this is what happened in February when United Technologies decided to reinforce both of these trends all at once, when the company announced it would be eliminating 1,400 jobs at a Carrier plant in Indianapolis in favor of hiring some new "foreign-born" employees – only these "foreign-born" workers will be hired in Mexico.

    "Two Indiana plants that make products for the heating, ventilating and air conditioning industry are shifting their manufacturing operations to Mexico, which will cost about 2,100 workers their jobs," The Indianapolis Star reports.

     

    "Carrier is shuttering its manufacturing facility on Indianapolis' west side, eliminating about 1,400 jobs during the next three years [and] United Technologies Electronic Controls said that it will move its Huntington manufacturing operations to a new plant in Mexico, costing the northeastern Indiana city 700 jobs by 2018."

    Watch below as 1,000 soon-to-be Donald Trump voters react to the announcement:

    Trump frequently railed against the move and pledged to force Carrier to keep its jobs in the U.S. while on the campaign trail.

    "Here's what's going to happen," Trump told a crowd in Indianapolis in April. "I'll get a call from the head of Carrier and he'll say, 'Mr. President, we've decided to stay in the United States. That's what's going to happen — 100 percent."

    And now, as CNBC's David Faber reports, Trump appears to have been right.

    More from the NYT:

    On Thursday, Mr. Trump and Mike Pence, Indiana’s governor and the vice-president elect, plan to appear at Carrier’s Indianapolis plant to announce they’ve struck a deal with the company to keep a majority of the jobs in the state, according to officials with the transition team as well as Carrier.

     

    Mr. Trump will be hard-pressed to alter the economic forces that have hammered the Rust Belt for decades, but forcing Carrier and its parent company, United Technologies, to reverse course is a powerful tactical strike that will rally his base even before he takes office.

     

    In exchange for keeping the factory running in Indianapolis, Mr. Trump and Mr. Pence are expected to reiterate their campaign pledges to be friendlier to business by easing regulations and overhauling the corporate tax code. In addition, Mr. Trump is expected to tone down his rhetoric threatening 35 percent tariffs on companies like Carrier that shift production south of the border.

    On its behalf, Carrier announced on Twitter shortly after the announcement that it was "pleased to have reached a deal with President-elect Trump & VP-elect Pence to keep close to 1,000 jobs in Indy." We expect more companies to follow in these anti-offshoring footsteps.

    We expect more details of the deal tomorrow but as The NY Times reports, roughly 10 percent of United Technologies’ $56 billion in revenues comes from the federal government, with the Pentagon its single largest customer. Its Pratt & Whitney division, for example, supplies the engines for the Air Force’s most advanced fighters and host of other planes. So perhaps some quid pro quo.

    On the heels of the reported 'deal' with Ford, it seem president-elect Trump is starting to make good on some promises (but we can't help but wonder why President Obama did not do these things?)

  • Trump, Romney Spotted Having Dinner Inside Trump Hotel Amid Cabinet Speculation

    With Donald Trump set to make his official announcement of Steven Mnuchin’s appointment to the Treasury Secretary post tomorrow at 6:30am, in the process placing yet another former Goldman banker in one of the most important US government positions, a move which has already led to accusations of selling out by members of his core support base, is Trump preparing to serve up another major cabinet surprise?

    As was reported earlier by ABC, Donald Trump and Mitt Romney would be having dinner this evening amid ongoing “cabinet speculation” that Romney is one of the leading contenders for the Secretary of State position.

    While we don’t know what the two have said to each other, and it is still unknown if Trump has or will offer Romney – a person many define as the embodiment of the “swamp” – the top US diplomat position, we do know where the two met – the Jean George restaurant located at the Trump International Hotel & Tower New York next to both CNN and Central Park – and we also have an almost intimate dinner-side coverage of how the dinner between the two, who were joined by RNC Chairman Reince Priebus, progressed courtesy of the omnipresent Twitter.

    And this is why the media has a nervous breakdown any time Trump forgets to inform it that he is leaving for dinner.

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Today’s News 29th November 2016

  • Speculation Soars As Mike Pence Says "There Will Be Very Important Announcements Tomorrow"

    With the Trump cabinet filling up, but a number of key positions still to be announced, vice-president-elect Mike Pence told Fox News tonight that "there will be very important announcements tomorrow."

     

     

    So who will it be?

    POSTS ALREADY FILLED

    WHITE HOUSE CHIEF OF STAFF

    * Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus

    CHIEF WHITE HOUSE STRATEGIST AND SENIOR COUNSELOR

    * Steve Bannon, former head of the conservative website Breitbart News

    ATTORNEY GENERAL

    * Jeff Sessions, Republican U.S. senator from Alabama and senior member of the Senate Judiciary Committee (subject to Senate confirmation)

    CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY DIRECTOR

    * Republican U.S. Representative Mike Pompeo from Kansas (subject to Senate confirmation)

    NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER

    * Michael Flynn, retired Army lieutenant general and former director of the Defense Intelligence Agency

    UNITED NATIONS AMBASSADOR

    * Nikki Haley, Republican South Carolina governor (subject to Senate confirmation)

    EDUCATION SECRETARY

    * Betsy DeVos, Republican donor and former chair of the Michigan Republican Party

    HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES SECRETARY

    * Tom Price, Republican U.S. representative from Georgia, orthopedic surgeon

    *  *  *

    CONTENDERS

    Below are people mentioned as contenders for senior roles as the Republican president-elect works to form his administration before taking office on Jan. 20, according to Reuters sources and media reports.

    TREASURY SECRETARY

    * Steven Mnuchin, former Goldman Sachs Group Inc executive and Trump's campaign finance chairman

    * Jeb Hensarling, Republican U.S. representative from Texas and chairman of the House Financial Services Committee

    * Tom Barrack, founder and chairman of Colony Capital Inc

    * John Allison, former chief executive officer of BB&T Corp

    * David McCormick, president of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates LP

    SECRETARY OF STATE

    * Mitt Romney, 2012 Republican presidential nominee and former Massachusetts governor

    * Rudy Giuliani, former Republican mayor of New York City

    * John Bolton, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations under Republican President George W. Bush

    * Bob Corker, Republican U.S. senator from Tennessee and chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee

    * Zalmay Khalilzad, former U.S. ambassador to Iraq

    DEFENSE SECRETARY

    * James Mattis, retired Marine general

    * David Petraeus, former CIA director and retired Army general

    * Tom Cotton, Republican U.S. senator from Arkansas

    * Jon Kyl, former Republican U.S. senator from Arizona

    * Duncan Hunter, Republican U.S. representative from California and early Trump supporter, member of the House Armed Services Committee

    * Jim Talent, former Republican U.S. senator from Missouri who was on the Senate Armed Services Committee

    * Rick Perry, former Republican Texas governor

    * Stephen Hadley, former national security adviser under President George W. Bush

    HOMELAND SECURITY SECRETARY

    * Michael McCaul, Republican U.S. representative from Texas and chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee

    * David Clarke, Milwaukee county sheriff and vocal Trump supporter

    * Joe Arpaio, outgoing Maricopa County, Arizona, sheriff who campaigned for Trump

    * Kris Kobach, Kansas secretary of state

    * Frances Townsend, homeland security and counterterrorism adviser to former Republican President George W. Bush

    ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY ADMINISTRATOR

    * Jeff Holmstead, energy lawyer, former EPA official during George W. Bush administration

    * Robert Grady, venture capitalist, partner in private equity firm Gryphon Investors

    * Leslie Rutledge, Republican Arkansas attorney general

    * Carol Comer, commissioner of the Indiana Department of Environmental Management

    * Scott Pruitt, Oklahoma attorney general

    ENERGY SECRETARY

    * Harold Hamm, Oklahoma oil and gas mogul, chief executive of Continental Resources Inc

    * Kevin Cramer, Republican U.S. Representative from North Dakota

    * Robert Grady, venture capitalist, partner in private equity firm Gryphon Investors

    * Larry Nichols, co-founder of Devon Energy Corp

    * James Connaughton, chief executive of Nautilus Data Technologies and a former environmental adviser to President George W. Bush

    * Rick Perry, former Republican Texas governor

    INTERIOR SECRETARY

    * Sarah Palin, former Alaska governor, 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee

    * Jan Brewer, former Republican Arizona governor

    * Forrest Lucas, founder of oil products company Lucas Oil

    * Harold Hamm, Oklahoma oil and gas mogul, chief executive of Continental Resources Inc

    * Robert Grady, venture capitalist, partner in private equity firm Gryphon Investors

    * Mary Fallin, Republican Oklahoma governor

    * Ray Washburne, chief executive of investment company Charter Holdings

    * Cathy McMorris Rodgers, U.S. representative from Washington state and Republican Conference chair

    COMMERCE SECRETARY

    * Wilbur Ross, billionaire investor, chairman of Invesco Ltd subsidiary WL Ross & Co

    * Linda McMahon, former World Wrestling Entertainment executive and two-time Republican Senate candidate

    DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE

    * Admiral Mike Rogers, director of the National Security Agency

    * Ronald Burgess, retired lieutenant general and former Defense Intelligence Agency chief

    * Robert Cardillo, director of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency

    * Pete Hoekstra, former Republican U.S. representative from Michigan

    * Rudy Giuliani, former Republican mayor of New York City

    U.S. TRADE REPRESENTATIVE

    * Dan DiMicco, former chief executive of steel producer Nucor Corp

    LABOR SECRETARY

    * Andrew Puzder, chief executive officer of CKE Restaurants

    * Victoria Lipnic, U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission commissioner and former Labor Department official during the George W. Bush administration

    TRANSPORTATION SECRETARY

    * Elaine Chao, former labor secretary and deputy transportation secretary under Republican Presidents George W. Bush and George H.W. Bush, respectively. Chao is married to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell

    * Harold Ford, former Democratic U.S. Representative from Tennessee

    HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT SECRETARY

    * Dr. Ben Carson, former 2016 Republican presidential candidate and retired neurosurgeon

    SUPREME COURT VACANCY

    The Trump transition team confirmed he would choose from a list of 21 names he drew up during his campaign, including Republican U.S. Senator Mike Lee of Utah, and William Pryor, a federal judge with the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.

  • Assad On Verge Of Biggest Victory Since Start Of Syrian War With Imminent Capture Of Aleppo

    The battle for one of the most contested Syrian cities in the nation’s long-running civil war, Aleppo, is approaching its climax. According to Reuters, the Syrian army and its allies announced the capture of a large swath of eastern Aleppo from rebels on Monday – by some estimates as much as 40% of the militant held part – in an accelerating attack that threatens to crush the opposition in its most important urban stronghold.

    In a major breakthrough in the government’s push to retake the whole city, regime forces captured six rebel-held districts of eastern Aleppo over the weekend, including Masaken Hanano, the biggest of those. On Sunday, the 13th day of the operation, they also took control of the adjacent neighborhoods of Jabal Badra and Baadeeen and captured three others.

    As is customary, when it comes to describing events in Syria, one has two biased narratives to choose from: one from the perspective of the Western forces, for whom the protagonist are the Syrian rebels, and Assad is the enemy, and then there is the Syrian/Russian point of view, in which the rebels are aligned with the Islamic State (and are supported by the US) and the liberation of the country entails removing both at the same time.

    Covering the former “angle” first, Reuters writes that two rebel officials said the insurgents, facing fierce bombardment and ground attacks, had withdrawn from the northern part of eastern Aleppo to a more defensible front line along a big highway after losses that threatened to split their enclave. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights – a UK funded “think tank” operated by just one man, who in 2013 was responsible for the Assad “chemical attack” fabricated YouTube clip – said the northern portion of eastern Aleppo lost by the rebels amounted to more than a third of the territory they had held, calling it the biggest defeat for the opposition in Aleppo since 2012.

    Thousands of residents were reported to have fled. A rebel fighter reached by Reuters said there was “extreme, extreme, extreme pressure” on the insurgents. Part of the area lost by the rebels was taken over by a U.S.-backed Kurdish militia from another part of Aleppo in what rebels described as an agreed handover, a rare example of cooperation between groups that have fought each other.

    What appears to be the imminent loss of Aleppo by rebel forces has sent shockwaves of demoralization across the war-torn country, and hundreds of miles to the south, people have started to leave the rebel-held Damascus suburb of Khan al-Shih for other parts of the country controlled by insurgents under a deal with the government, the Observatory said.

    As Reuters adds, capturing eastern Aleppo would be the biggest victory for President Bashar al-Assad since the start of the uprising against him in 2011, restoring his control over the whole city apart from a Kurdish-held area that has not fought against him.

    For Assad, taking back Aleppo would shore up his grip over the main population centers of western Syria where he and his allies have focused their firepower while much of the rest of the country remains outside their control. More importantly, it would be seen as a victory for his allies, Russia and Iran, which have outmanoeuvred the West and Assad’s regional enemies through direct military intervention. It would be a major slap in the face for the US and its allies.

    “What happened in the last two days is a great strategic accomplishment by the Syrian army and allies,” a fighter with a militia on the government side in the Aleppo area said.

    Meanwhile, animosity toward the US is building even among its erstwhile “friends” as rebels said their foreign patrons including the United States have abandoned them to their fate in Aleppo.

    While some of the rebels in Aleppo have received support from states such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United States during the war, they say their foreign backers have failed them as Assad and his allies unleash enormous firepower.

     

    “The situation is very bad and the reason is the round the clock shelling with all types of weapons,” said Abdul Salam Abdul Razaq, military spokesman for the Nour al-Din al-Zinki group, one of the main Aleppo rebel factions.

     

    “There is very fierce fighting going on now and the regime and its supporters are destroying whole areas to allow themselves to advance,” he told Reuters. Another fighter said there was heavy attrition in “people and ammunition”.

    Assad has gradually closed in on eastern Aleppo this year, first cutting the most direct lifeline to Turkey before fully encircling the east, and launching a major assault in September. A military news service run by Hezbollah declared the northern portion of eastern Aleppo under full state control. The Russian Defence Ministry said about 40 percent of the eastern part of the city had been “freed” from militants by Syrian government forces.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the Syrian army’s advances with members of his Security Council on Monday, Russian news agencies quoted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying.

    To preserve some pride, officials with two Aleppo rebel groups said rebels had withdrawn to areas they could more easily defend, particularly after losing the Hanano housing complex area on Saturday.

    It is a withdrawal for the sake of being able to defend and reinforce the front lines,” an official in the Jabha Shamiya rebel group told Reuters.  In other words, it’s not a defeat, just a strategic retreat.

    * * *

    Meanwhile, the same narrative from a biased Russian angle, as reported earlier by RT, sounds as follows:

    More than 3,000 civilians have left the eastern part of the besieged Syrian city of Aleppo in the last 24 hours, the Russian Center for Reconciliation said. It later reported that about 40 percent of the militant-held part of the city has been liberated. Some 3,179 people, including 1,519 children – among them 138 newborn babies – have left Eastern Aleppo through the ‘humanitarian corridors’ set up by Syrian government forces, Russian Reconciliation Center said on Monday. The center reported that 12 neighborhoods, comprising roughly 40 percent of the territory previously controlled by the militants, have been cleared.

     

    According to the Russian Center for Reconciliation, more than 80,000 people live in the newly liberated areas of the eastern part of the city. It added that more than 5,000 people fled from the southern districts of eastern Aleppo, which are still controlled by the militants, to the areas held by government forces. More than 100 militants laid down their arms and left eastern Aleppo through the special corridors, the statement said.

     

    Despite joint humanitarian efforts undertaken by the Syrian government and Russia, thousands of civilians are still kept in the eastern part of the city by militants. To minimize damage to the civilian population, the Russian and Syrian militaries suspended airstrikes and set up ‘humanitarian corridors’ for both non-combatants and militants willing to leave the area.

     

    However, the corridors are vulnerable to militant small arms fire and shelling, which complicates the evacuation of civilians. RT’s Lizzie Phelan, reporting from Syria, said the government army’s advance in the eastern part of Aleppo “has enabled civilians to leave the area,” and that there are thousands of people desperate to flee. Those who managed to escape told RT crew the militants deprived them of all means to survive, including food and water.

     

    “The militants are lying, they are holding us there, even now they are holding families [in the area]. They don’t let people go,” one man said.

     

    “Every time we tried to flee they caught us and turned us back,” a young woman added.

    As RT concludes, “currently, the Syrian Army is continuing their large-scale offensive in eastern Aleppo, targeting Al-Nusra Front and other radical militants still controlling the area. The troops have already established control over important blocks and districts in the eastern part of the city.”

    * * *

    Readers can decide which narrative they like better, but no matter how one spins it, whether Assad’s ongoing acts are of barbaric brutality or altruistically humanistic, should Aleppo fall to the Assad regime, the Syrian civil war will enter into a new phase, one where the regime will now have the clear upper hand, and will set back the US allied effort years, giving Trump few options if he wants to reengage in Syria: expand the US presence by orders of magnitude, including overt ground forces, or simply withdraw.

  • Trump Ups the Ante Over Alleged Voter Fraud: Attacks CNN and Introduces New Hashtag #CorruptHillary

    From the layman, those still inside of the matrix — bluepilled — fat and stupid off government sponsored roasted beef, the recent comments by Trump might appear to be coarse, almost petty. But if you take these comments under the context that Trump is in fact a 4 dimensional chess player and is laying a trap for bird brained Hillary supporters — which will soon be executed — laying waste to a cadre of people too stupid to see it coming, they are in fact brilliant. This evening Trump went on a twitter rampage, fucking with Jeff Zeleny, shill reporter from CNN, about his special AC360 report depicting Trump as a sore winner — merely shitposting on Twitter to distract people from the true source of angst: TRUMP LOST THE MEANINGLESS POPULAR VOTE (gasp!). trump What’s noteworthy here is the rhetoric by Trump towards the former #CrookedHillary, seemingly graduating her crime status to #CorruptHillary by retweeting someone’s comments — making her title more conducive to a legal framework — perhaps laying the groundwork for a jail granting prosecution. His comments regarding democrat voter fraud are purposeful and I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump appointed someone to audit the election results once he took office. I seriously doubt this is an unpaved road the haggard democrats want to travel now — especially when all they have to ride on are Tim Kaine tricycles.

    Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

  • Worried You Are Putin's Pawn? Mainstream Media's Checklist For Avoiding Fake News

    Submitted by Justin Raimondo via AntiWar.com,

    No one outside of a few obsessed cranks would’ve noticed it if the Washington Post hadn’t given it front page prominence last week: a formerly obscure web site, propornot.com, which purports to identify a “Russian active measures” campaign with some very specific goals in mind As Post “reporter” Craig Timberg put it:

    “The flood of ‘fake news’ this election season got support from a sophisticated Russian propaganda campaign that created and spread misleading articles online with the goal of punishing Democrat Hillary Clinton, helping Republican Donald Trump and undermining faith in American democracy, say independent researchers who tracked the operation.”

    While the Post piece doesn’t link directly to the propornot site – because doing so would’ve exposed its laughably amateurish “methodology” for all to see – Timberg does mention their list of online Boris Badenovs, including not only Antiwar.com but also the Drudge Report, WikiLeaks, David Stockman’s Contra Corner, the Ron Paul Institute, LewRockwell.com, Counterpunch, Zero Hedge, Naked Capitalism, Truthdig, Truth-out, and a host of others. These sites, according to the Post, not only promoted a barrage of “fake news” with the aim of defeating Mrs. Clinton, but they did so at the behest of a “centrally-directed” (per propornot) intelligence operation undertaken by the Russians. So what did this “fake news” consist of? Timberg “reports”:

    “Russia’s increasingly sophisticated propaganda machinery – including thousands of botnets, teams of paid human ‘trolls,’ and networks of websites and social-media accounts – echoed and amplified right-wing sites across the Internet as they portrayed Clinton as a criminal hiding potentially fatal health problems and preparing to hand control of the nation to a shadowy cabal of global financiers. The effort also sought to heighten the appearance of international tensions and promote fear of looming hostilities with nuclear-armed Russia.”

    Never mind that it was Hillary Clinton herself who heightened international tensions by threatening military retaliation against the Russians for supposedly unleashing via WikiLeaks a flood of embarrassing emails. In a speech touted as outlining her foreign policy platform, she railed:

    “You’ve seen reports. Russia’s hacked into a lot of things. China’s hacked into a lot of things. Russia even hacked into the Democratic National Committee, maybe even some state election systems. So, we’ve got to step up our game. Make sure we are well defended and able to take the fight to those who go after us.

     

    “As President, I will make it clear, that the United States will treat cyber attacks just like any other attack. We will be ready with serious political, economic and military responses.”

    According to the “experts” at propornot – granted anonymity by Timberg due to alleged fear of “Russian hackers” – to so much as note this clear threat is to brand oneself as a “Russian agent of influence.”

    And what about Mrs. Clinton’s health problems – was reporting on this driven by Russian spies embedded in the alternative media? Or was it occasioned by this video, which saw her falling to the ground after leaving the 9/11 ceremony early? Are the folks at propornot and their fans at the Washington Post saying the amateur videographer who took that footage is a Russian secret agent? Were the television networks and other outlets that showed the footage “useful idiots,” to employ a favorite cold war smear revived by propornot? Given their criteria for labeling people agents of the Kremlin, the answer to these questions has to be yes – and now we are falling down the rabbit hole, in a free-fall descent into lunacy.

    Propornot’s “criteria” for inclusion on their blacklist is actually an ideological litmus test: if you hold certain views, you’re in the pay of the Kremlin, or else an “unwitting agent – as former CIA head Mike Morell said of Trump. If you say anything at all positive about Russia or Putin – or a long list of entities, like China or “radical political parties in the US or Europe” (does this include the GOP?) – it’s a dead giveaway. We’re told to “investigate this by searching for mentions of, for example, ‘russia’, on their site by Googling for ‘site:whateversite.com Russia’, and seeing what comes up.”

    If only Sherlock Holmes had had Google at his disposal, those detective stories would’ve been a lot shorter!

    The propornot site is filled with complex graphs, and the text is riddled with “scientific”-sounding phrases, but when you get right down to it their “methodology” boils down to this: if you don’t fit within a very narrow range of allowable opinion, either falling off the left edge or the right edge, you’re either a paid Russian troll or else you’re being “manipulated” by forces you don’t understand and don’t want to understand.

    Did you cheer on Brexit? You’re Putin’s pawn!

     

    Are you worried about “World War III, nuclear devastation, etc.” instead of being content in the knowledge that their preferred policy – unmitigated hostility toward Russia — would “just result in a Cold War 2 and Russia’s eventual peaceful defeat, like the last time”? Well, then, clearly you’re either on Putin’s payroll, or else you’d like to be.

     

    Other proscribed opinions include: “gold standard nuttery and attacks on the US dollar,” believing “the mainstream media can’t be trusted,” and “anti-‘globalism.’” And to underscore their complete lack of self-awareness, we’re told that additional warning signs of Putinism are “hyperbolic alarmism” and “generally ridiculous over-the-top assertions.”

     

    In their world, it isn’t hyperbolic alarmism to point to ramshackle Russia, with a GDP equal to Spain’s and a declining military budget that pales before our own, as an existential threat to the West. And if you’re a reporter for the Washington Post, which has destroyed what reputation it had by effectively becoming the house organ of the Democratic National Committee, generally ridiculous overt-the-top assertions, such as those proffered by propornot, are “news.”

    The Post piece also cites an article published on the “War On The Rocks” web site (which is exactly what it sounds like). The authors, a triumvirate of neocons, avers that they’ve been “tracking” “Russian propaganda” efforts since 2014, and they’ve concluded that the Grand Goal of the Russkies is to “Erode trust between citizens and elected officials and democratic institutions” – as if this process isn’t occurring naturally due to the depredations of a corrupt and arrogant political class.

    Another insidious theme of Russian “active measures” as identified by these geniuses is “Stoking fears over the national debt, attacking institutions such as the Federal Reserve, and attempts to discredit Western financial experts and business leaders.” So we mustn’t talk about the national debt – because to do so brands one as a cog in Putin’s propaganda machine. Gee, based on these criteria, we can only conclude that every vaguely conservative politician running for office in the last decade or so is part of the Vast Russian Conspiracy, not to mention numerous economists.

    And that’s not all – not by a long shot. Here’s a list of more Forbidden Topics we’re not supposed to discuss, except maybe in whispers in the privacy of our own homes: “Police brutality, racial tensions, protests, anti-government standoffs, online privacy concerns, and alleged government misconduct are all emphasized [by the Vast Russian Conspiracists – ed.] to magnify their scale and leveraged to undermine the fabric of society.” After all, Russia Today is “emphasizing” these issues – so mum’s the word!

    Yes, these people are serious – but why should anyone take them seriously? Why is the Washington Post “reporting” this nonsense – and putting it on the front page, no less? In short, what’s the purpose of this virulent propaganda campaign? After all, Hillary Clinton has been defeated, along with her campaign theme of “A vote for Trump is a vote for Putin.” What does a continuation of this losing mantra hope to accomplish?

    The folks at propornot are explicit about their goal: they want the government to step in. They want to close down these “agents of influence.” In their own words, they want the FBI and the Department of Justice to launch “formal investigations” of the sites on their blacklist on the grounds that “the kind of folks who make propaganda for brutal oligarchies are often involved in a wide range of bad business.” They accuse the proprietors of the listed web sites – including us, by the way – of having “violated the Espionage Act, the Foreign Agents Registration Act, and other related laws.”

    Oh, but they say they want to “avoid McCarthyism”! They just want to shut us down and shut us up.

    These people are authoritarians, plain and simple: under the guise of fighting authoritarianism, they seek to ban dissenting views, jail the dissenters, and impose a narrow range of permissible debate on the public discourse. They are dangerous, and they need to be outed and publicly shamed.

    To be included on their list of “subversives” is really a badge of honor.

  • Former CNN Anchor Lays Out Rules For Covering Trump – "Be Relentless"

    Former CNN White House correspondent, Frank Sesno, has taken it upon himself to define the guidelines by which the news media should cover Donald Trump.  The rules were published by The Hill, where Sesno is a contributor, and urge reporters to be “relentless” yet “fair” and describes Trump is the “adversary.”

    1. Be fair. Give Trump his due: He won. As his appointments and policies emerge, they should be examined in turn and in detail, looking at their component parts. Separate news from opinion. Be sure people know the difference between analysis and commentary. Get rid of pundits who are nothing more than partisan propagandists.

     

    2. Be relentless. Relentless reporting means that journalists should demonstrate an attention span that goes beyond the last deadline or latest insult. Stay on the story. Focus on choices and tradeoffs that affect people’s lives. Tax cuts. Health care. Infrastructure. Immigration.

     

    Zero in on the particulars. Cite examples. Use data, real numbers and real people. Seek out other views, different angles. Draw upon not only “experts” but also people across the country, including the voters who upended this election.

     

    3. Focus on substance. The president-elect never laid out the deep detail behind his tweets and sound bites that got so much traction: repeal ObamaCare, rip up trade agreements, walk away from climate commitments, back off regulation, dump Dodd-Frank, rethink NATO.

     

    The media can do less horse race and more human race. Go beyond personalities and politics. Do series reporting. Cable news — with 24 hours to fill  can produce longer segments with graphics and serious conversation to dive deep. Talk radio should do less arguing and more asking.

     

    4. Respect the adversary. The adversarial nature of the press — which Trump doesn’t like and takes personally — is the cornerstone of a free press. It is the a bedrock principle by which we hold the powerful to account and ferret out incompetence, hypocrisy and corruption. Thomas Jefferson was treated that way. So was Abraham Lincoln. And Ronald Reagan. They didn’t like it, but it was power’s price of admission.

     

    Among the most dangerous sounds to come out of Trump’s mouth has been his disrespect, not just for individual journalists, but for journalism itself. Turning reporters from adversaries into enemies, inciting the crowd to the point that some reporters needed personal security protection during the campaign is the kind of horrific thing we expect to see in Venezuela or Russia or Cuba.

    After months of not holding a press conference amid multiple FBI investigations and Clinton Foundation scandals, this is how the “news media” handled Hillary’s first press conference.  We would very much appreciate Sesno’s opinion on whether or not the “How was your labor day weekend?” question fit within his guidelines…doesn’t seem all that relentless and maybe a little light on the substance as well…but we’re just a bunch of “Putin’s useful idiots” peddling “fake news”…what do we know?

     

    Of course, language like Sesno’s opening paragraphs below simply prove that the crusade against Trump is nothing more than a personal vendetta against a candidate that repeatedly exposed, embarrassed and humiliated the mainstream media for their biased coverage. 

    He summons network anchors and top execs to complain about unfair coverage and unflattering photos. He upbraids cable networks for their unrelenting coverage. He cancels a session with The New York Times, suggesting his media war is just beginning, and then reschedules the meeting. He’s on the record, then off the record. He posts a two-and-a-half-minute YouTube video that lays out the first executive actions he plans to take, shunning the journalists he distrusts so much.

     

    Last week’s acrimonious dance between President-elect Donald Trump and the media is just the warmup.

    And while Sesno claims the high ground by asserting that journalists play a key “mediating role in our democracy,” the electorate just proved that they know better.  While journalists should play a “key mediating role in our democracy”, the news media has proven time and again that they simply use their “access to decision-makers” to push carefully crafted narratives supporting their chosen political candidates and therefore can’t be trusted.

    Say what you will about the news media, but journalists run interference between the public and the public officials who govern us.

     

    Reporters have experience and, often, expertise. They can compare one comment, one promise to another. They have access to decision-makers and the loyal opposition. They play a mediating role in our democracy, where we hold government leaders accountable.

     

    The best journalists are stand-ins for citizens, paid to go up close and ask tough questions.

    Alas, as we’ve said before, the Trump administration welcomes this kind of frustrated backlash from disaffected reporters as it simply serves to maintain the focus of America’s anger on the corrupt media and almost ensures a Trump re-election in 4 years.

    Sesno

  • The FT Asks "Is This The Elites' "Marie Antoinette" Moment?"

    Authored by Wolfgang Munchau, originally posted at FT.com,

    Some revolutions could have been avoided if the old guard had only refrained from provocation. There is no proof of a “let them eat cake” incident. But this is the kind of thing Marie Antoinette could have said. It rings true. The Bourbons were hard to beat as the quintessential out-of-touch establishment.

    They have competition now.

    Our global liberal democratic establishment is behaving in much the same way. At a time when Britain has voted to leave the EU, when Donald Trump has been elected US president, and Marine Le Pen is marching towards the Elysée Palace, we — the gatekeepers of the global liberal order — keep on doubling down.

    The campaign by Tony Blair, former UK prime minister, to undo Brexit is probably the quaintest example of all. A more serious incident was the forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility in the UK, which said last week that Brexit would have severe economic consequences. Coming only a few months after the economics profession discredited itself with a doomy forecast about the consequences of Brexit, this is an astonishing reminder of the inadequacy of economic forecasting models.

    The truth about the impact of Brexit is that it is uncertain, beyond the ability of any human being to forecast and almost entirely dependent on how the process will be managed. “Don’t know” is the technically correct answer. Before the referendum, Project Fear was merely a monumental tactical miscalculation. Today it is stupidity. One of the debates was whether people should be listening to experts. We have moved beyond that. Because of a tendency to exaggerate, macroeconomists are no longer considered experts on the macroeconomy.

    Out-of-touch former leaders and the economic establishment are not unique. In Italy, the political establishment is considering amending recently modified electoral law solely to keep Beppe Grillo’s rebellious Five Star Movement from power. This is intertwined in a complex way with next Sunday’s referendum on constitutional reform.

    The electoral law that came into force in July gives the strongest party quasi-dictatorial powers. It was a stitch-up agreed in 2014 between Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s Democratic party and former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia. Neither man then believed the Five Star Movement would ever be in a position to shake the cosy duopoly. No matter how the referendum on constitutional reforms ends, expect to see one of the most glaring efforts of gerrymandering in modern politics. But Mr Renzi’s problem is not the Five Star Movement. It is the voters.

    The EU itself, too, is doubling down whenever it can. The trade agreement with Canada, and the yet to be concluded Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, are about as popular today as the stationing of medium-range nuclear missiles in the 1980s. A popular insurrection is under way against them because people fear a reduction in consumer protection and a power grab by multinationals.

    Why is this happening? Macroeconomists thought no one would dare challenge their authority. Italian politicians have been playing power games forever. And the job of EU civil servants is to find ingenious ways of spiriting politically tricky legislation and treaties past national legislatures. Even as the likes of Ms Le Pen, Mr Grillo and Geert Wilders of the far-right Dutch Freedom party head towards power, the establishment keeps acting this way. A Bourbon regent, in an uncharacteristic moment of reflection, would have backed off. Our liberal capitalist order, with its competing institutions, is constitutionally incapable of doing that. Doubling down is what it is programmed to do.

    The correct course of action would be to stop insulting voters and, more importantly, to solve the problems of an out-of-control financial sector, uncontrolled flows of people and capital, and unequal income distribution. In the eurozone, political leaders found it expedient to muddle through the banking crisis and then a sovereign debt crisis — only to find Greek debt is unsustainable and the Italian banking system is in serious trouble. Eight years on, there are still investors out there betting on a collapse of the eurozone as we know it.

    Mr Renzi could have used his ample political capital to reform the Italian economy instead of trying to cement his power. And imagine what would have been possible if Chancellor Angela Merkel had spent her even larger political capital on finding a solution to the eurozone’s multiple crises, or on reducing Germany’s excessive current account surpluses. If you want to fight extremism, solve the problem.

    But it is not happening for the same reason it did not happen in revolutionary France. The gatekeepers of western capitalism, like the Bourbons before them, have learnt nothing and forgotten nothing.

  • Defense Department Launches Probe Of Petraeus Sex Scandal Leaks

    As reported earlier today, in what may be a tiebreaker option for Secretary of State in Trump’s administration with both Romney and Giuliani seemingly unable to get enough internal support to make it over the hurdle, the president elect met with David Petraeus, a former U.S. military commander in Iraq whose sharing of classified information with his biographer mistress, led to his resignation as CIA chief in 2012, to evaluate him for the top diplomatic position in the US government.

    Petraeus said after meeting Trump that the New York businessman “basically walked us around the world” in their discussion. “He showed a great grasp of the variety of challenges that are out there and some of the opportunities as well,” Petraeus told reporters.

    Trump’s initial response appeared favorable:  “Just met with General Petraeus–was very impressed!” Trump tweeted shortly after the meeting which lasted one hour at Trump Tower in Manhattan.

    After he resigned from the CIA in November 2012, he avoided a criminal trial by agreeing to a plea deal in April 2015. It required him to serve two years on probation and pay a $100,000 fine on a misdemeanor charge of unauthorized possession of classified information. While that may create the unusual prospect of a cabinet secretary who could still be on criminal probation for his first months in office, Trump said during the presidential campaign that Petraeus’s violations paled compared to those of Trump’s opponent, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who shared classified information on a private e-mail server.

    So will Petraeus’ past come back to haunt him?

    According to a  reports by Reuters, the answer may, surprisingly, be no: “Petraeus’ past mishandling of classified documents is unlikely to be an obstacle to Trump offering him a top government post, said a source who has advised the transition team on national security. That is despite Trump harshly criticizing Democratic rival Hillary Clinton during the election campaign for using a private email server while she was secretary of state.”

    “Other lives, including General Petraeus and many others, have been destroyed for doing far, far less,” Trump said at a rally in October. “This is a conspiracy against you, the American people, and we cannot let this happen or continue.”

    However, as Bloomberg notes, FBI’s notorious director James Comey, who oversaw both the Petraeus and Clinton investigations, disagreed. In a July 7 hearing, he told the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee that Petraeus’s behavior was worse than Clinton’s, saying that he deliberately “lied” when first questioned by investigators. Regarding Hillary, Comey has said there was no evidence that Clinton or her aides had intended to break the law through careless handling of sensitive information. Federal prosecutors said Petraeus knew black binders he shared with Broadwell contained classified information, but he nonetheless provided them.

    “So you have obstruction of justice, you have intentional misconduct and a vast quantity of information” that was highly classified, Comey said. “He admitted he knew that was the wrong thing to do. That is a perfect illustration of the kind of cases that get prosecuted.”

    The issue could be an impediment for Petraeus in a confirmation hearing before the Foreign Relations Committee, according to Republican Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, a libertarian who is opposed to most U.S. intervention abroad. “The problem they are going to have if they put him forward is there are a lot of similarities to Hillary Clinton,” Paul said Monday on CNN.

    Now add one more: according to a report by AP this afternoon, the Defense Department has launched a leaks investigation related to the sex scandal that led to the resignation of former CIA Director David Petraeus.   A U.S. official told the AP that investigators are trying to determine who leaked personal information about Paula Broadwell, the woman whose affair with Petraeus led to criminal charges against him and his resignation. AP adds that the information concerned the status of Broadwell’s security clearance.

    Disclosure of the Broadwell information without official permission would have been a violation of federal criminal law.

    The latest twist in this case – oddly similar to the reopening of the FBI probe into Hillary Clinton’s email server – will likely complicate Petraeus’ prospects of obtaining a Cabinet position in the Trump administration, resurfacing details of the extramarital affair and FBI investigation that ended his career at the CIA and tarnished the reputation of the retired four-star general.

    Of course, in Hillary’s case, the FBI quickly closed its reopened probe into her email just over a week after it was reopened after her emails mysteriously emerged on the notebook computer of Anthony Weiner’s computer. For the Petraeus case to be a carbon copy, any renewed probe into his conduct would similarly have to be closed in a matter of days. We doubt that will happen, which is why as of this moment, absent a material change, it is likely safe to say that the former general can be counted out from the running for the Secretary of State position under the Trump administration.

  • Furious Democrats Blast Stein's Recount Effort As Nothing But A "Scam"

    With the passing of each new day, it’s growing more and more difficult to find anyone that is actually supportive of Jill Stein’s recount efforts (aka fundraising scam).  The Obama administration has already weighed in saying that the election results “accurately reflected the will of the American people” while Clinton’s campaign attorney even confirmed they had not “uncovered any actionable evidence of hacking or outside attempts to alter the voting technology.”

    Now, even prominent democratic strategists are turning on Stein as Joe Trippi described her efforts as a “waste of time and money.” Worse, in an accusation that may have more substantial consequences,  some Democrats have gone so far as to echo Trump’s charge that re-tallying votes from the presidential race is just a “scam” being advanced by Stein, who has raised more than $6 million to fund potential recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, three states critical to the Republican nominee’s win.

    “It’s a waste of time and money. It is not going to change anything,” said Democratic strategist Joe Trippi, who served as campaign manager for former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean’s 2004 presidential campaign.

     

    “I think it probably was the Stein people looking for a way to stay relevant, raise some money and take the stink off of them. Instead of everybody screaming, ‘You made Trump happen,’ she is counting the votes to change that whole narrative.”

    Moreover, democrat strategist Robert Shrum confirmed that the “Clinton people would have preferred this not to happen” while adding that there is “no chance” that the recounts will change the election’s outcome.

    Aides to former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton have sought a middle ground on Stein’s push. The remaining Clinton campaign team will “participate” in the effort but is not actively supporting it.

     

    In a Medium post on Saturday, Clinton lawyer Marc Elias wrote, “Because we had not uncovered any actionable evidence of hacking or outside attempts to alter the voting technology, we had not planned to exercise this option ourselves.”

     

    The Clinton team’s involvement will likely be limited to having lawyers or other experts at recount sites to watch over the proceedings.

     

    “My sense is that the Clinton people would have preferred this not to happen and are going to be involved only in a monitoring capacity,” said Robert Shrum, a Democratic strategist and a veteran of several presidential campaigns, including that of 2004 nominee John Kerry.

     

    Shrum added that he believed “people are way over-excited about the thing.” There is, he added, “no chance” that it will change the election’s outcome.

    Meanwhile, the practical and logistical hurdles to success are starting to mount for Stein.  In order to get a state-wide recount in Pennsylvania, Stein needed affidavits from three residents in each of Pennsylvania’s 9,000 precincts to be filed by 5pm EST…something she apparently just thought about earlier today.

     

    Moreover, this afternoon the state of Wisconsin released their official “Presidential Election Recount Cost Estimate” which came in at $3.5mm, or a mere 3x more that the $1.1mm that Stein had originally estimated and more than half of the $6.4mm she’s raised so far.

    So, while you may be “With Her”, dear Jill, pretty much no one is with you.  Though we’re sure you enjoyed extending your 15 minutes of fame and profiting from your fundraising scam, it’s now long past time for you to fade back into irrelevance and exit the national spotlight for good.

    With here

     

    Finally, perhaps PJW summarizes the Jill Stein recount farce the best:

  • 'Real' Money & Why You Need It Now, Part 2

    In these volatile times, gold is more important than ever. Bonner & Partners' Bill Bonner explains in this two-part series (Part 1 here), the importance of 'real money' and why you need it now…

    Why You Will Need Gold

    What troubles my sleep is what is not in the textbooks.

    Central banks are in the process of making trillions in government debt disappear. Governments borrow money that doesn’t exist. The debt is bought up by the central bank, which creates money for that purpose. The interest paid to the central bank on the debt is paid back to the U.S. Treasury (that’s the deal between the Fed and the U.S. government).

    Then, when the bond matures, the “normal” thing would be for the borrower – the U.S. government – to repay the loan. This repayment money would have to come out of the economy and into the Fed’s vaults, thus reducing the amount of money in circulation and triggering an economic slump.

    The federal government would have to run a surplus in order to actually be a net payer of debt rather than a net borrower. That’s not going to happen. Instead, it borrows more – to repay the old loan – and adds further fuel to hot asset markets. The debt is never settled… it goes on forever… eternally unpaid, forgotten in the bank’s vaults. It is as if it had disappeared completely.

    The debt may disappear. But the credit – the money put into the economy to create the debt – lives on. It spends its days chasing asset prices. Stocks, bonds, real estate, art – all go up. Bread and automobiles remain more or less where they were. Who complains?

    Keynesian economists Larry Summers of Harvard and Paul Krugman of Princeton practically drool when they think of it… a paradise where governments can redistribute wealth and undertake huge capital investment projects – roads, hospitals, bridges, harbors – at no cost. The feds get to borrow money, hire people, and spend on pet projects. Then, as if by magic, the debt vanishes. What could be better?

    The only thing that might be better would be negative interest rates, in which the government is actually paid to borrow. That is already happening. In Europe, rates have fallen so low that currently, Switzerland can borrow for 10 years at a MINUS 0.2% rate.

    This allows the government – and only the government, because it is the only institution that can positively, absolutely guarantee that you will get your money when you are supposed to – to go to heaven without dying.

    Further disturbing my sleep has been a report from Japan that the central bank has intervened directly in the stock market. The significance of this is staggering. Because now, the feds have in place the means – apparently – to take control of nearly all our wealth.

    The government borrows. The central bank buys its debt. Then it never asks to be repaid.

    As Japan shows, it can also buy stocks with the same free money. Bidding against a buyer who gets his money for nothing will be impossible. Gradually, the feds could acquire a controlling interest in almost all the world’s publicly listed companies. And who would object? Stock prices would go through the roof.

    As for the nation’s debt – public and private – who minds if the feds buy it… and disappear it? Nobody.

    As the price of debt goes up, the financial industry becomes richer. And government – and recipients of government money – are happy, too; the money just keeps flowing in their direction.

    Leading economists – notably Ken Rogoff of Harvard and Willem Buiter of Citigroup – also encourage the feds to outlaw cash… giving them a trifecta of financial control. They would have a grip on America’s equity, debt, and bank accounts.

    Already, government-sponsored agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are backing approximately 60% of new U.S. mortgages since 2008. Meaning the feds effectively own $4.8 trillion worth of U.S. housing. The Federal Reserve owns a further $4.5 trillion in debt. And through the student loan program, 40 million young people count on the feds to not foreclose on their lives.

    The only significant asset that remains out of their grasp is gold. And they may grab that soon.

    It wouldn’t be the first time. In 1933, Franklin Roosevelt’s Executive Order 6102 decreed that all gold should be turned in to the U.S. Treasury at $20 an ounce. Then, after the gold was in his hands, he was able to devalue the U.S. dollar by 75%, pricing gold at $35 an ounce.

    Gold was cash back then. And Roosevelt was trying to avoid the very thing we’ve seen happen in Argentina, Cyprus, and, most recently, Greece – a dash for cash.

    With free money available to them, the feds today could easily close that door, too – declaring private gold reserves illegal. They might offer to buy it for, say, $1,500 an ounce. Who would object to a 25% premium?

    The feds are the lenders and buyers of last resort. As the quality of assets declines, more and more assets – debt and equity – end up in their hands. Gradually, they control more and more of the capital structure – bought with free money under cover of financial necessity. Gradually, there is less and less “free” in free enterprise. And gradually, there is less and less real wealth created.

    Gradually, too, the noose tightens around your financial neck, as there are fewer and fewer doors open and fewer places that are safe to keep your wealth.

    No one likes to have his wealth “nationalized” at the point of a gun. But everyone likes having it bought from him for more than it is worth.

    This is what has happened already in the QE programs in Europe and America… and even more so in Japan’s QE program (with an extra helping of equity buying). How much more of it the world can take is anybody’s guess. No one knows how far this can go. But as far as I know, no economy has ever been successfully Sovietized by printing money and using it to buy assets.

    Don’t Sweat the Ice Age

    Many economists are foretelling a long period of sluggish growth and low price inflation. The economy may want to go into a deflationary hibernation, they say. But since the feds can print and spend with impunity, it may be a long time coming. Plus, if the government is able to force people into bank accounts – and out of cash – it will be able to tax savings and further stimulate spending.

    With these new tools, the feds should be able to prevent a real correction for many years. They suggest that we prepare for an economic “Ice Age,” with little change year to year.

    Asset prices won’t fall because the central bank is actively buying bonds, and maybe even stocks, adding new money to the financial economy. Consumer prices won’t rise because there is no real growth in demand. Debt will increase – but it is hidden and forgotten in central-bank vaults.

    Maybe so. But I don’t think you should expect it. It could lead to a dangerous complacency. The feds might be able to hold this together and they might not. This Ice Age formula – dousing a debt-soaked economy with more debt – is not a way to build a healthy economy. It is just a way to shift real resources to the government and its cronies without causing either a frightening spell of inflation or deflation.

    It might work for a while. But the falcon of asset prices becomes deaf to the falconer of the real economy. Then, in a kind of financial never-never land, he gets lost completely and flies into a tree. Asset prices fall to the ground. Investors panic. Lenders call their loans. Art investors rush to auction off their tableaux. Lines form at ATMs.

    I am not going to speculate on how or when this occurs.

    “If you’re in a theater and one person walks calmly to an exit, it doesn’t attract much notice,” said Vern Gowdie, an Australian colleague. “Two… three… probably not much reaction either. But if you have three people suddenly run for an exit, you’ll have a panic.”

    What then?

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Today’s News 28th November 2016

  • Let’s bring capital back to USA, too

    It’s laudable that Trump wants to bring factories back to USA.  But how about virtual, monetary factories?  Moving financial institutions such as banks, insurers, brokerage houses, exchanges, and other institutions brings the most bang for the buck when it comes to revitalizing America’s economy.

    As we explain in Splitting Pennies, even though money doesn’t exist, it’s the most important part of a healthy economy.

    The business climate in USA is about to change greatly, pro-business.  But let’s not forget that capital is portable, we can bring capital back to USA too- not just factories.  Capital has been fleeing USA faster and faster.  Let’s stop the leaks and then bring it home.  We printed it – it’s our money!  – @FXBanker

    It’s laudable that Trump wants to bring factories back to USA.  But how about virtual, monetary factories?  Moving financial institutions such as banks, insurers, brokerage houses, exchanges, and other institutions brings the most bang for the buck when it comes to revitalizing America’s economy.

    No doubt, re-building America’s factories, previously the manufacturing base of the world, should be a priority for a number of reasons.  Not only does it provide jobs and stimulate the local economy – it’s a security issue.  Since when is it ‘politically correct’ to ‘outsource’ military technology development to foreign countries?  60% of the actual activities of the CIA are outsourced, many of them by companies that do not operate in America!  For example, the system used by Prisoners to call friends and relatives involves special features such as call tracking, call recording, and other functions for obvious criminal tracking purposes.  The company who provides this software to prisons, is based in Israel.  Nothing against Israel – but it seems to be a conflict of interest?  At least for functions such as finance, the military, security, software encryption, and other critical infrastructure – it shouldn’t be outsourced.  Brining an H1B genius to Charlotte, NC from India is one thing, outsourcing development to a firm in Mumbai, is another.  The difference is like, the enemy manufacturing the weapons; there’s no telling when guns will ‘misfire’ due to an ‘error.’  While this didn’t happen on a large scale in a glaringly obvious smoking gun fashion as we saw during 9/11 – subtle security breaches are so common it’s become a niche black industry, stealing and selling data on the black market.  Well they aren’t stealing it, they have it – it’s just a grey area, how data is ‘lost’ and then ‘found’ by partner companies. 

    To a large extent, the fact that ‘technology’ has been offshored & outsourced was due to bad planning and cost saving.  The majority of Intellectual Property (IP) remains in USA with companies that are heavy outsourcers like Amazon, Google, Apple, and others.  They went into China and India at a time when it was the ‘hip’ thing to do, and Steve Jobs knew a lot about India, practically being a Yogi himself (or anyway, a wannabe Yogi).  The logistic thought of moving all those machines, which would all need to be retooled, to USA is practically impossible.  But if they were once built in China – why can’t they be built in Oklahoma?  You know, there’s cheap labor in USA too.  I heard recently about someone who writes for a blog that is paid $10 for 200 words, a US Citizen.  Oh yes, factory work, the unions, the unions.. But what about California wineries and other fairly large businesses using illegals anyway?  The lines of states and countries have become so blurred, especially when ‘American’ companies may have non-US investors, an HQ office in Chicago, factory in Costa Rica, and a European sales force.  Of course, all their IP is owned by a Luxembourg based holding company which they pay ‘licensing fees’ to tax free, even though they’ve never been to Luxembourg or even know what it is (a town, right?).  Actually, Luxembourg actually participates in the Olympics.

    There’s one consideration too that Trump needs to be aware of – if he’s going to court Silicon Valley and get them to ‘bring it home’ he’s going to have to offer them some serious benefits.  USA’s biggest taxpayers, “Big Oil” (Chevron, Exxon) pay the top maximum tax every year, billions upon billions of dollars.  They don’t use tax loop holes, but they get a huge benefit of working with the government, as their customer.  They get the US military protecting their international assets, they get the CIA opening up new markets for them (and squashing the competition, literally).  They get direct access to politicians on a number of levels and issues without the need of lobbyists (although, they employ them too).  They don’t protest the government like the liberal left coast, they practically own it.  It’s another approach toward crony capitalism.

    Capital is so portable now, Trump will have to sell the billionaire class which fought against him during the campaign through their Illuminati puppet HRC.  There’s literally nothing stopping JP Morgan from moving to Canada in 2 weeks.  They don’t even have to get plane tickets, they can purchase 18 wheelers and other transport vehicles and build a small city outside of Toronto.  Not a likely scenario just to outline how easy it is for money to flow in and out of an economy in today’s world, without capital controls.  

    Best example is Forex – billions flowed quickly outside of USA to trade this new and exciting market.  A change in the Forex rules could quickly see those billions and more flow back, within a short time period of Dodd-Frank FX rules being deleted,  as
    explained in this article on Global Intel Hub.

    Join the Delete FX Rules in Dodd-Frank Petition today by
    clicking here

    To get a quick primer on
    what this is all about, checkout Splitting Pennies Understanding Forex – the world’s
    first “REAL” FX book.

  • "Governments Are Running Out Of Excuses" Paul Craig Roberts Exposes "The Western War On Truth"

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    The “war on terror” has simultaneously been a war on truth. For fifteen years—from 9/11 to Saddam Hussein’s “weapons of mass destruction” and “al Qaeda connections,” “Iranian nukes,” “Assad’s use of chemical weapons,” endless lies about Gadaffi, “Russian invasion of Ukraine”—the governments of the so-called Western democracies have found it essential to align themselves firmly with lies in order to pursue their agendas. Now these Western governments are attempting to discredit the truthtellers who challenge their lies.

    Russian news services are under attack from the EU and Western presstitutes as purveyors of “fake news.Abiding by its Washington master’s orders, the EU actually passed a resolution against Russian media for not following Washington’s line. Russian President Putin said that the resolution is a “visible sign of degradation of Western society’s idea of democracy.”

    As George Orwell predicted, telling the truth is now regarded by Western “democratic” governments as a hostile act. A brand new website, propornot.com, has just made its appearance condemning a list of 200 Internet websites that provide news and views at variance with the presstitute media that serves the governments’ agendas. Does propornot.com’s funding come from the CIA, the National Endowment for Democracy, George Soros?

    I am proud to say that paulcraigroberts.org is on the list.

    In the West those who disagree with the murderous and reckless policies of public officials are demonized as “Russian agents.” The president-elect of the United States himself has been designated a “Russian agent.”

    This scheme to redefine truthtellers as propagandists has backfired. The effort to discredit truthtellers has instead produced a catalogue of websites where reliable information can be found, and readers are flocking to the sites on the list. Moreover, the effort to discredit truthtellers shows that Western governments and their presstitutes are intolerant of truth and diverse opinion and are committed to forcing people to accept self-serving government lies as truth.

    Clearly, Western governments and Western media have no respect for truth, so how can the West possibly be democratic?

    The presstitute Washington Post played its assigned role in the claim promoted by Washington that the alternative media consists of Russian agents. Craig Timberg, who appears devoid of integrity or intelligence, and perhaps both, is the WaPo stooge who reported the fake news that “two teams of independent researchers” – none of whom are identified – found that the Russians exploited my gullibility, that of CounterPunch, Professor Michel Chossudosky of Global Researh, Ron Paul, Lew Rockwell, Justin Raimondo and that of 194 other websites to help “an insurgent candidate” (Trump) “claim the White House.”

    Note the term applied to Trump – “insurgent candidate.” That tells you all you need to know. You can read here what passes as “reliable reporting” in the presstitute Washington Post, and here.

    Glenn Greenwald of The Intercept, which somehow escaped inclusion in The 200, unloads on Timberg and the Washington Post here.

    Western governments are running out of excuses. Since the Clinton regime, the accumulation of war crimes committed by Western governments exceed those of Nazi Germany. Millions of Muslims have been slaughtered, dislocated, and dispossessed in seven countries. Not a single Western war criminal has been held accountable.

    The despicable Washington Post is a prime apologist for these war criminals. The entire Western print and TV media is so heavily implicated in the worst war crimes in human history that, if justice ever happens, the presstitutes will stand in the dock with the Clintons, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, Obama and their neocon operatives or handlers as the case may be.

  • Is It Over? Dow Futures Drop As USDJPY Tumbles Most Since July

    After 16 days in a row without a meaningful decline, Asia trading has opened with USDJPY dumping back from almost 114.00 to 111.50 – the biggest drop since July 29th. The USD Index is down most since Trump's win but for now the moves in equities (Japanese and US) are modest (but down)…

     

    Yen is heavily bid as Asia trading opens

     

    The biggest drop in USDJPY since July…

     

    As the post-Trump surge in the dollar has seemingly stalled…

     

    Japanese equities are getting hit…

     

    but for now, the Friday spike in US equities at the close is stalling (though modestly)…

  • 60% Of New Yorkers Are One Paycheck Away From Homelessness

    More than half of all New Yorkers don’t have enough money saved to cover them in the event of a lost job, medical emergency, or other disaster, according to a new report by the Association for Neighborhood & Housing Development.

    Click image for massive legible version)

     

    As The Gothamist reports, nearly 60 percent of New Yorkers lack the emergency savings necessary to cover at least three months’ worth of household expenses including food, housing, and rent, but that statistic isn’t spread evenly across the five boroughs.

    The Bronx has the highest rate of families without adequate emergency savings: in Mott Haven, Melrose, Hunts Point, Longwood, Highbridge, South Concourse, University Heights, Fordham, Belmont, and East Tremont, 75 percent of families have inadequate emergency savings. The Staten Island neighborhoods of Tottenville and Great Kills have the lowest rate, with just 41 percent of families lacking the funds necessary to cover three months’ worth of expenses.

     

    Without these savings, families who face emergencies could be at risk of eviction, foreclosure, damaged credit, and even homelessness.

     

    In Brooklyn, families in Brownsville (70%), Bed-Stuy (67%), Bushwick (68%), East New York (67%), and South Crown Heights/Prospect Heights (67%) are the most at-risk—in Manhattan, an average of 67 percent of families in Harlem, Washington Heights, and Inwood lack necessary savings.

     

    In Queens, the neighborhoods with the highest percentage of these households were Elmhurst/Corona (64%), Rockaway/Broad Channel (60%), Sunnyside/Woodside (59%), and Jackson Heights (59%).

     

    Read more here…

    As The ANHD report above shows, there are a litany of other statistics that, when looked at together, paint a picture of a neighborhood’s potential (or lack of it) for economic opportunity: incarceration, unemployment, poverty rates for each neighborhood are included, as are each neighborhood’s percentage of small businesses, percentage of households without internet, and percentage of rent-burdened households.

    Now the question is – is this fake news? is this peddling fiction? Since it sure doesn’t add up to the utopia that Clinton/Obama/Dems have spewed to their identity-divided supporters.

  • Ron Paul Lashes Out At WaPo's Witch Hunt: "Expect Such Attacks To Continue"

     

    Washington Post Peddles Tarring of Ron Paul Institute as Russian Propaganda, via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

     

    The Washington Post has a history of misrepresenting Ron Paul’s views. Last year the supposed newspaper of record ran a feature article by David A. Fahrenthold in which Fahrenthold grossly mischaracterized Paul as an advocate for calamity, oppression, and poverty — the opposite of the goals Paul routinely expresses and, indeed, expressed clearly in a speech at the event upon which Fahrenthold’s article purported to report. Such fraudulent attacks on the prominent advocate for liberty and a noninterventionist foreign policy fall in line with the newspaper’s agenda. As Future of Freedom Foundation President Jacob G. Hornberger put it in a February editorial, the Post’s agenda is guided by “the interventionist mindset that undergirds the mainstream media.”

    On Thursday, the Post published a new article by Craig Timberg complaining of a “flood” of so-called fake news supported by “a sophisticated Russian propaganda campaign that created and spread misleading articles online with the goal of punishing Democrat Hillary Clinton, helping Republican Donald Trump and undermining faith in American democracy,” To advance this conclusion, Timberg points to PropOrNot, an organization of anonymous individuals formed this year, as having identified “more than 200 websites as routine peddlers of Russian propaganda during the election season.” Look on the PropOrNot list. There is the Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity’s (RPI) website RonPaulInstitute.org listed among websites termed “Russian propaganda outlets.”

    What you will not find on the PropOrNot website is any particularized analysis of why the RPI website, or any website for that matter, is included on the list. Instead, you will see only sweeping generalizations from an anonymous organization. The very popular website drudgereport.com even makes the list. While listed websites span the gamut of political ideas, they tend to share in common an independence from the mainstream media.

    Timberg’s article can be seen as yet another big media attempt to shift the blame for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s loss of the presidential election away from Clinton, her campaign, and the Democratic National Committee (DNC) that undermined Sen Bernie Sanders’ (I-VT) challenge to Clinton in the Democratic primary.

    The article may also be seen as another step in the effort to deter people from looking to alternative sources of information by labeling those information sources as traitorous or near-traitorous.

    At the same time, the article may be seen as playing a role in the ongoing push to increase tensions between the United States and Russia — a result that benefits people, including those involved in the military-industrial complex, who profit from the growth of US “national security” activity in America and overseas.

    This is not the first time Ron Paul and his institute has been attacked for sounding pro-Russian or anti-American. Such attacks have been advanced even by self-proclaimed libertarians.

    Expect that such attacks will continue. They are an effort to tar Paul and his institute so people will close themselves off from information Paul and RPI provide each day in furtherance of the institute’s mission to continue and expand Paul’s “lifetime of public advocacy for a peaceful foreign policy and the protection of civil liberties at home.” While peace and liberty will benefit most people, powerful interests seek to prevent the realization of these objectives. Indeed, expect attacks against RPI to escalate as the institute continues to reach growing numbers of people with its educational effort

  • The U.S. Silver Market Experienced Two Signficant Developments

    SRSrocco Report

    By the SRSrocco Report,

    According to the USGS most recent report, the U.S. silver market experienced two significant developments in August.  From the data published in the USGS August Silver Mineral Industry Survey, U.S. silver production declined significantly while silver imports surged to near record highs.

    First, U.S. silver production in August is down a stunning 14% compared to the same month last year and down 10% versus the previous month:

    USGS U.S. Silver Production

    This is certainly a big decline compared to the trend earlier in the year where the average U.S. silver mine supply was approximately 95 metric tons a month.  What makes this quite surprising is that the price of silver hit a high of $20.7 in August, nearly $5 higher than during January-March.  So, why is U.S. silver production declining so much as the price continued higher??

    I called up the USGS Silver Specialist and left a message on their answering service as to the details why silver production in the U.S. declined so much in August.  However, no reply was forthcoming in the following days.

    Secondly, the U.S. silver imports hit a near record high of 581 metric tons (mt) in August versus 502 mt in July and 464 mt in June:

    U.S. Silver Imports

    This large jump in U.S. silver imports is interesting as demand for the iShares Silver ETF was basically flat in August.  Even though the SLV ETF silver inventories surged during the first half of the year, it was relatively flat in July and August.

    What I found also quite interesting is that the U.S. imported 55 mt of silver from Poland in August which was half of their total monthly mine supply.  Poland produces about 105 mt of silver a month.  Normally, Poland exports no more than 10-20 mt of silver a month to the United States.

    For whatever reason, U.S. silver imports surged as the price hit a record high of $20.7 in August.  As I mentioned, this silver did not make its way into the iShares Silver SLV ETF as their inventories remained flat.  So, where did it go?

    Well, according to the information from the COMEX, total inventories on the exchange increased from 153 million oz (Moz) at the beginning of August to 163 Moz by the end of the month.  Thus, the COMEX silver inventories increased 10 Moz or 311 metric tons in August.  Thus, some of the nearly 80 metric tons imported by the United States in August made its way into the COMEX silver inventories.

    Of course, that is if the COMEX holds all the silver it states in its inventories or if each silver bar doesn’t have several owners.

    Regardless, to see such a large decline in U.S. silver production in August was quite surprising.  Furthermore, the Silver Institute just put out their 2016 Interim Silver Report which they state that world silver production is forecasted to decline in 2016.

    Unfortunately, once U.S. and global oil production starts to head south in a big way, world silver production will most certainly follow suit.  More about this in future articles.

    Lastly, I will begin posting articles by The Hills Group on the oil and energy market this weekend.  Bedford Hill of The Hills Group, has a wealth of knowledge on the oil industry, their ETP Oil Model as well as other aspects of the energy industry.  I posted The Hills Group short response to the USGS announcement of a new 20 billion barrel oil resource in the Wolfcamp Shale formation in Texas.

    Lastly, if you haven’t checked out our new PRECIOUS METALS INVESTING section or our new LOWEST COST PRECIOUS METALS STORAGE page, I highly recommend you do.

    Check back for new articles and updates at the SRSrocco Report.

  • Is This The Democrats' Real Strategy In Launching Recounts?

    Over the past couple of days we’ve written numerous times about Jill Stein’s recount efforts in WI, MI and PA (see here, here and here).  And while it’s clear that Stein intends to move forward with recounts in all three states (she’s now up to $6.1mm in donations), what is unclear, and quite perplexing, is exactly why she’s pursuing these recounts in the first place.  Here are the potential justifications from Stein’s perspective, as we see them:

    1. Personal self-interest? – Obviously, No.  With less than 1% of the vote in WI, MI and PA, Stein obviously has no shot of winning any of the states in question.
    2. Hopes of recount tipping states to Hillary? – No.  Multiple experts and even Hillary campaign insiders have admitted that overturning election results with a margin of victory of several 1,000 votes is extremely unlikely.  To win, Hillary would have to flip WI, MI and PA even though she trails by ~20k, ~12k and ~70k votes in each of those states, respectively…not going to happen.
    3. Exposing voting machine hacking? – No.  Even the Obama administration has confirmed the the election was “free and fair from a cybersecurity perspective” and that votes “accurately reflect the will of the American people.”  By failing to present even a shred of evidence of vote tampering in her WI recount petition, instead choosing to focus on wild conspiracy theories, Stein effectively also admits that there was no “hacking” of voting machines.
    4. Fundraising scam to get millions in donations from disaffected Hillary voters? – Maybe.  As of right now, Stein has raised ~$6mm of the $7mm she says she needs to fund recount efforts.  Assuming Stein goes through with recounts in all three states and her cost estimates are reasonably accurate then she won’t really have that much money left over to be added to the general Green Party coffers.

    So, with no practical reason for forcing recounts, what exactly is Jill Stein up to?

    Stein

     

    One theory is that Stein is simply hoping to disrupt the electoral college process to push the 2016 election into the hands Congress while drawing the legitimacy of Trump’s presidency into question.

    As Edward Foley, an expert in election law at Moritz College of Law at Ohio State University, pointed out to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, electors from around the country have to meet by December 19th to cast their electoral college votes.  To the extent recounts in WI, MI and PA have not been completed by that time, which experts assign a high probability that they will not, there is a chance that the electoral votes from those three states wouldn’t be counted leaving neither candidate with the required electoral votes to win the presidency (electoral count would be Trump 260 versus Hillary 232). 

    If the electoral college process fails to select a President then the election would be left in the hands of Congress to decide.  Given that the Senate and House are both controlled by Republicans, in theory they would then choose Trump/Pence, though in this election cycle nothing is a certainty.  Moreover, even if Trump/Pence are chosen, the whole process of being appointed by Congress, combined with a loss of the popular vote, would then cast a dark shadow over their administration.

    Wisconsin’s recount will likely begin late next week, once the state has tallied a cost estimate and received payment from Stein’s campaign, said Michael Haas, administrator of the Wisconsin Elections Commission.

     

    Political scientist Barry Burden, the director of the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said it would be extremely difficult to complete the recount on time.

     

    “You may potentially have the state electoral votes at stake if it doesn’t get done by then,” said Haas.

     

    A lawyer with Stein’s campaign has said it wants the recount done by hand. That would take longer and require a judge’s order, Haas said.

     

    Perhaps the most important deadline is Dec. 19, when electors around the country must meet to cast their Electoral College votes, said Edward Foley, an expert in election law at Moritz College of Law at Ohio State University.

     

    “That is a hard deadline and if a state were to miss that deadline, it would be technically in jeopardy of not having its electoral votes counted,” he said.

    Of course, if this theory is even partially true then it’s extremely disturbing on a variety of levels. That a person with absolutely no standing. in terms of personal damages, and no presentation of credible evidence of wrongdoing could unilaterally disrupt a presidential election is not only a failure of Stein’s personal character but it’s a failure of our election rules and procedures that such reckless behavior would be permitted.   

  • Up To Eight Italian Banks May Fail If Renzi Loses Referendum

    Just as we were concluding our write up on the return of Europe’s solvency crisis, facilitated by Donald Trump’s NATO funding demands and the end of the ECB’s unprecedented can kicking exercise, the FT reported that as many as eight of Italy’s troubled banks “risk failing” if prime minister Renzi loses next weekend’s constitutional referendum and ensuing market turbulence deters investors from recapitalizing them, citing senior bankers.

    This particular rather adverse outcome is captured by the lower-right, glowing red box in the Danske Research flowchart shown below

    Renzi, who has previous said he will quit if he loses the referendum although has since changed his tune, has championed a market solution to solve the problems of Italy’s €4tn banking system and avoid a vote-losing “resolution” of Italian banks under new EU rules. A resolution restructures and, if necessary, winds up a bank by imposing losses on both equity and debt investors, particularly controversial in Italy, where millions of individual investors have bought bank bonds.

    The following chart from the ECB demonstrates why a bail-in of Italian banks would be the equivalent of political suicide: the vast majority of bail-inable Italian debt is held domestically, read savers and pensioners. Should they be impaired, it would lead to an overnight social crisis.

     

    However, if Renzi is already on his way out post a “No” vote, which most polls have assured is the most likely outcome, he will have far less motivation to seek a private bail-out, making a bail-in far more likely, boosting the chances of an adverse social reaction. As the FT adds, in the event of a “No” vote and Mr Renzi’s exit, bankers fear protracted uncertainty during the creation of a technocratic government. Lack of clarity over a new finance minister may lethally prolong market jitters about Italy’s banks. Italian lenders have more than halved in value this year on concerns about their non-performing loans.

    For those who have followed the neverending saga of Italy’s insolvent banks, the details are familiar: the “boot” has eight banks known to be in various stages of distress: its third largest by assets, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, mid-sized banks Popolare di Vicenza, Veneto Banca and Carige, and four small banks rescued last year: Banca Etruria, CariChieti, Banca delle Marche, and CariFerrara.

    As warned here since 2011, the biggest problem facing Italy’s (and Europe’s banks) is the inordinate share of NPLs: Italy’s banks have €360bn of problem loans versus €225bn of equity on their books after successive regulators and governments failed to tackle a bloated financial system where profitability was weakened by a stagnant economy and exacerbated by fraudulent lending at several institutions.

    The problem is that a market rescue of the insolvent banks has proven nearly impossible due to fears over the full magnitude of the bad debt problem: 

    But the market solutions, including a JPMorgan plan to recapitalise Monte Paschi and the efforts of a government-sponsored private vehicle Atlante to backstop problems at smaller banks, are looking shaky in the face of expected market turbulence if a “No” vote wins, said officials and bankers.

     

    Lorenzo Codogno, a former chief economist at the Italian Treasury and founder of LC Macro Advisors, argued that the “biggest concern” in the aftermath of the referendum is its impact on “the banking sector and implications for financial stability”.

     

    “The capital increases of Italian banks due to be announced right after the referendum may become even trickier than currently perceived in the case of a “No” vote”,” Mr Codogno said.

    What is the worst case scenario (for now)? The answer: the third consecutive failure of Monte Paschi (which would likely have significant downstream consequences on all other Italian banks). Senior bankers and officials said that the worst-case scenario was where a failure of Monte Paschi’s complex €5bn recapitalisation and bad-debt restructuring demanded by regulators would translate into a wider failure of confidence in Italy and imperil a market solution for its ailing banks.

    Under this scenario, officials and senior bankers believe that all eight banks could be put into resolution. They fear that contagion from the small banks could threaten a €13bn capital increase at UniCredit, Italy’s largest bank by assets and its only globally significant financial institution, planned for early 2017.

    Should the Monte Paschi bailout deal fail, “all theories are possible” including “a resolution of the eight banks”, especially if a “No” vote led to Mr Renzi quitting office and a period of protracted political uncertainty, according to the FT. Indeed, the prospectus for the recapitalisation of Monte Paschi, which includes a debt for equity swap that begins on Monday, warns that the vote weighs on its chances of success. The Bank of Italy has warned of market volatility around the vote. Critics of Mr Renzi have accused the central bank of fear-mongering ahead of the vote.

    No matter what, a renewed focus on BMPS would likely be the catalyst for the next Italian, and shortly after, Europen banking crisis. At that point the Italian dominos would – once again – be in free fall.

    To be sure, the market has already sniffed out much of the risks with spreads on Italian government bonds versus German Bunds rising above 190 points on Friday, a level not seen since October 2014, as markets priced in expectations of turbulence.

    One possibility is bailing out any domestic investors who get bailed in as a last ditch workaround to prevent a full-blown banking panic:

    Bankers and officials can envisage a technocratic government agreeing with Brussels and Frankfurt a systemic “bail-in” of vulnerable Italian banks which emerged among Europe’s weakest in stress tests two years ago and again this summer. Under a bail-in, which forces losses on bond holders, Brussels could allow for some compensation for vulnerable retail investors, officials said.

    Germany, however, would be less than enthused by such an outcome. Unfortunately, no matter the political framworks, Italy’s banks are only going to deteriorate following next Sunday’s vote:

    Nicolas Véron, senior fellow at think tank Bruegel, argued that “if anything the ECB has been very lenient in addressing the system-wide banking situation [in Italy] that has been very visible since the comprehensive assessment two years ago”. “It is a very difficult moment but it is not sustainable. The problem of banking fragility is not going away. It is not something that resolves itself with time,” Mr Veron said.

    All hope is not lost, however. The Economist, the once reputable economic and financial publication half-owned by the Rothschilds, has had a terrible track record of advising its declining readers on how to vote in critical political events: from urging a “Bremain” vote this past June, to begging for a vote for Hillary on November 8, the Economist has gotten virtually every major political event wrong. Which is why the fact that over the weekend the publication came out with an article “Why Italy should vote no in its referendum” may be the best hope Renzi has to remain in power.

  • Trump And Draghi May Bring A Return Of The "European Solvency Crisis": Barclays

    Since Drahi’s infamous “whatever it takes” warning in the summer of 2012, European bond yields have been a one way street lower, and until the recent Trumpflation rally, had tumbled to all time lows, in many cases well below 0%.  There are two catalysts, however, that may be ending Europe’s QE-driven free ride, and according to a recent report by Barclays, their names are Donald Trump and Mario Draghi.

    First, when looking at the impact of Trump, Barclays notes that his election as US president may have created an additional burden on European budgets: defence spending.

    The president-elect has suggested that European NATO members should reach the 2% GDP military spending target, as pledged under the NATO treaty. In 2015, the 22 EU countries that are also NATO members spent on average only 1.4% of GDP on defence, or 1.3% excluding the UK, while the US spent 3.6%. This is a shortfall of USD94bn, or 0.7% of the total GDP of EU-NATO members.

    Those countries whose debt to GDP ratios already exceed 100% (Italy, Spain and Portugal) are also the ones with low defence spending and would need to add 0.7-1.1% of GDP in defence spending if they were to reach the 2% target as shown in the figure below.

    In Trump carried out his threat and enforced a mandatory topping of contributions, and Italy had to boost its annual defence spending permanently to 2% of GDP (all else equal), its primary surplus would more than halve, from 1.7% currently to 0.7% of GDP. For France, Fillon and Juppe are arguing to increase military spending progressively to 2% of GDP by 2025, while they do not envisage any significant change in stance towards NATO.

    It’s not just Trump’s NATO policies: there is also the impact of the ECB’s QE which sooner or later will be tapered off. That, however, will result in the tide going out, and exposing just how naked Europe’s economies have been all along.

    As Barclays also writes, “the ECB‘s QE has been an important driver of EA growth and public debt dynamics, but at the cost of moral hazard.”

     Barclays finds that QE-generated growth, more so than low interest rates, has significantly contributed to a slowdown in the rise of the public debt, particularly in Italy and Spain. As shown in Figure 2, public debt would have risen an alarming 12% in these countries without QE.

    The British bank’s analysis also suggests that those countries with the most significant bond market pressure also pursued the most reforms. But rather than using the temporary relief created by QE to reform and repay public debt, fiscal policy in Italy and Spain became expansionary and reforms ground to a halt. In other words, as we warned all along, all QE does is kick the ball into the ECB’s court, while giving lazy, incompetent politicians the justification to do, well, nothing – certainly nothing that may threaten their careers – and simply watch as the stock maret rises, giving the false impression that “things are good.”

    Debt sustainability issues will likely therefore resurface not only due to higher interest but also, critically, because long-term growth prospects are poor without reforms, and it is now entirely recognized that it was the ECB’s fault why Europe’s nations – all badly in need of structural reform – abandoned all such efforts; after all why bother when “Mr. Chairman will get to work.”

    Here are Barclay’s details on why solvency concerns will re-emerge for Europe the moment Draghi even whispers a hint that QE is about to get tapered, let along end:

    With funding costs at historical lows and QE expected to remain in place for the foreseeable future, few investors are worrying about the long-term sovereign solvency of the euro area. But this could change. Draghi reminded us of the obvious in September, namely that “QE is not forever”. When the tide turns, many euro area sovereigns may very well be confronted with higher “r-g”, not only because of higher r (as monetary policy tightens) but, critically, because of low g, as long-term growth prospects are dismal without reforms.

     

    Compounding the problem of sensitivity to the assumptions (for r and g) is the issue of interdependence across variables. Primary balances and fiscal stances in general affect both interest rates and growth rates while growth rates affect the fiscal performance. If it is indeed the case that low interest rates – supported by ultra-accommodative monetary policy – delays necessary fiscal consolidation and supply-side reforms, arguably low r means low future g. Growth plays a critical role into debt dynamics through direct and indirect effects: the largest public debt contribution of QE came from the growth channel. If our assessment is correct, and governments fail to raise the long-run growth rates of their economies owing to complacency, it is plausible that the European economy will remain stuck in a low-growth equilibrium, where permanent QE is required to keep funding costs down, which coincidentally leads to delay in important reforms.

    There is another problem, in fact the biggest problem of all from day one: massive debt loads, which were never reduced in the aftermath of the great financial crisis, and which need soaring prices to be reflated away, however in the process of rising rates, those same debt balances effectively assures a financial crisis. Quote Barclays:

    The political landscape across the euro area argues against very high primary balances; in fact, we have seen how the primary balance has recently worsened and fiscal accommodation has increased. For Italy, public debt is currently at 134% of GDP, the primary balance at 1.5% of GDP, nominal r is at c. 3.2% and g is c. 1.5% (i.e., r-g = 1.7%). A small increase of r-g to say 2 or 2.5% would put debt/GDP along a rapidly growing path.

     

    In theory high debts do not necessarily imply a sovereign crisis, especially if the government spends its money wisely and collects taxes efficiently. But if it does not, solvency concerns could re-emerge, sovereign interest rates quickly rise above the average funding costs, and the 2010-11 adverse market dynamics could return. The big difference is that this time there would be far less monetary, fiscal, and political space to confront them.

    Two conclusions: i) as Barclays puts it, “the great fiscal success of QE could therefore turn out to be its biggest downfall in due course” and ii) everything that has happened since Draghi’s infamous “whatever it takes” gambit nearly 5 years ago, has been one great can-kicking detour, and the moment he market even gets a whiff that Draghi will punt on record QE, Europe’s crisis is back with a bang.

    On, and there is the whole “Trump” wildcard, not only as a result the wildcards from his NATO funding policies, but also because should the global reflation scare accelerate, then the ECB may have no choice but to tighten/taper/end QE sooner than anticipated as inflation worries spread to Europe, which in turn will catalyze the next leg of the Europea solvency crisis, which is inevitable as Europe failed miserably to engage in reform in the five years since Draghi’s words pushed European interest rates to all time lows.

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Today’s News 27th November 2016

  • The Washington Post: Useful-Idiot Shills For A Failed, Frantic Status Quo That Has Lost Control Of The Narrative

    Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

    Don't you think it fair and reasonable that anyone accusing me of being a shill for Russian propaganda ought to read my ten books in their entirety and identify the sections that support their slanderous accusation?

    I was amused to find my site listed on the now-infamous list of purportedly Russian-controlled propaganda sites cited by The Washington Post. I find it amusing because I invite anyone to search my 3,600-page archive of published material over the past decade (which includes some guest posts and poems) and identify a single pro-Russia or pro-Russian foreign policy entry.

    If anything, my perspective is pro-US dollar, pro-liberty, pro-open markets, pro-local control, pro-free-press, pro-innovation, and pro-opportunities to rebuild America's abandoned, decaying localized economies: in other words, the exact opposite of Russian propaganda.

    My "crime" is a simple one: challenging the ruling elite's narrative. Labeling all dissent "enemy propaganda" is of course the classic first phase of state-sponsored propaganda and the favorite tool of well-paid illiberal apologists for an illiberal regime.

    Labeling everyone who dissents or questions the ruling elite's narrative as tools of an enemy power is classic McCarthy-era witch-hunting, i.e. a broad-brush way of marginalizing and silencing critics with an accusation that is easy to fabricate but difficult to prove.

    Such unsupported slander is a classic propaganda technique. It has more in common with Nazi propaganda than with real journalism.

    The real useful-idiot shills are the editors and hacks paid by the Washington Post, who are busy penning articles such as "Why the electoral college should choose Hillary Clinton". Isn't this fundamentally a call to over-ride the Constitutional framework of the republic's democracy?

    In other words, the ruling elite's candidate lost, so let's subvert democracy to "right this terrible wrong" that was wrought by fed-up debt-serfs.

    Substitution is a useful technique to reveal propaganda: if Trump had lost by a thin margin, would the The Washington Post publish an article "Why the electoral college should choose Donald Trump"?

    Any site suggesting such an outlandish subversion of American democracy would of course by labeled Russian-controlled propaganda by The Washington Post. In other words, it's OK for the organs of Imperial Propaganda to call for the subversion of the Constitution, but if someone else dares to do so, you know the drill: they're labeled a tool of Russian propaganda.

    Just as a reminder, this is the status quo / ruling elite's handiwork The Washington Post shills/propagandists support: a status quo of institutionalized privilege, corruption and systemically soaring wealth and income inequality:

    The institutionalized impoverishment of non-elite students:

    The institutionalized impoverishment of the bottom 99.9%:

    The institutionalized impoverishment of everyone below the protected technocrat-insider class of shills, apparatchiks and professionals:

    This is what The Washington Post is pushing: a parasitic, predatory, exploitive, ruinously corrupt and venal ruling class and its army of apologists/lackeys/factotums.

    The fundamental source of the Post's hysterical accusations is the ruling elite has lost control of the narrative. This is the source of the mainstream media's angst-tinged hysteria and frantic efforts to marginalize and discredit any dissenting narratives that undermine or question the power of a corrupted, self-serving ruling elite that has failed the nation and its citizens.

    This is why Donald Trump was routinely labeled a Russian shill by the mainstream media during the campaign. Regardless of what you think of Trump or Clinton, what can we say about a supposedly responsible media that so cavalierly spews fact-free accusations of foreign control? This is the height of irresponsible propaganda being passed off as "journalism."

    Free speech implicitly carries the responsibility of the reader/listener/viewer to make a critical assessment of the content, its source and its aim: who benefits if we accept the narrative being pushed?

    The delicious irony of The Washington Post's hysterical campaign to smear dissenters as tools of Russian propaganda is that it only serves to discredit the Post itself. For my part, I invite you to read all ten of my books and make your own critical assessment of the content and answer these questions:

    1. Did you find even a single passage in the thousands of pages that favored Russian policies?

    2. Did you find any passages that favored domestic resilience and self-reliance, localized economic development, and the promotion of innovations that favored the many rather than the few?

    3. Don't you think it fair and reasonable that anyone accusing me of being a shill for Russian propaganda ought to read my ten books in their entirety and identify the sections that support their slanderous accusation?

    If they can't support it, then isn't their accusation the very propaganda they claim to be identifying?

    Just as a reminder: here's my chart of the Ministry of Propaganda (from 2007):

    When Does "Managed Perception" Become Reality? (May 1, 2011)

    *  *  *

    Join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com. My new book is #8 on Kindle short reads -> politics and social science: Why Our Status Quo Failed and Is Beyond Reform ($3.95 Kindle ebook, $8.95 print edition) For more, please visit the book's website.

  • College Students Demand Police Investigate "Suck It Up, Pussies" Post-It Note As Hate Crime

    Today we learn of yet another campus full of disaffected Hillary snowflakes who were triggered by a post-it note suggesting that they should stop whining about the election and just “suck it up, pussies.”  This latest example comes to us from Edgewood College in the ultra-liberal bastion of Madison, Wisconsin via Campus Reform.

    Apparently the simple post-it note was determined to be a “hate crime” by the college’s “diversity offices” and students with knowledge of the incident were encouraged to contact campus police.  To our complete shock, a message from Edgewood’s Vice President for Student Development pinned the blame for the “hate crime” on Trump, saying that it is part of a growing trend of “covert micro-aggressions and overt macro-aggressions” that have “taken on new fervor in higher education since our national election.”

    “Over the past week, there have been increasing reports of hateful acts on college and university campuses across the country.  Covert micro-aggressions and overt macro-aggressions appear to have taken on new fervor in higher education since our national election.  The frequency, boldness, and severity with which hateful acts have been occurring has, for many, signaled a new era of intolerance, fear, and mistrust in higher education.”

     

    “A great deal of fear, sadness, and anger among students, faculty, and staff resulted, especially for those that gather in the [office space].  The message was hateful and harmful toward members of our community. It violated every value that this institution considers to be at its core.”

    Here is the full letter sent to Edgewood students:

    Post iT

     

    In conclusion, we would simply say:

    Suck It Up

  • Even Obama Slams Stein's Recounts: The Results "Accurately Reflect The Will Of The American People"

    Jill Stein’s credibility seems to be sinking fast as both the Obama administration and the Clinton campaign have released statements this morning indicating they’ve failed to uncover a single shred of election hacking evidence.  The Obama administration confirmed their confidence in the election results via comments made to the New York Times saying that the election was “free and fair from a cybersecurity perspective” and that votes “accurately reflect the will of the American people.”

    The Obama administration said on Friday that despite Russian attempts to undermine the presidential election, it has concluded that the results “accurately reflect the will of the American people.”

     

    The statement came as liberal opponents of Donald J. Trump, some citing fears of vote hacking, are seeking recounts in three states — Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — where his margin of victory was extremely thin.

     

    In its statement, the administration said, “The Kremlin probably expected that publicity surrounding the disclosures that followed the Russian government-directed compromises of emails from U.S. persons and institutions, including from U.S. political organizations, would raise questions about the integrity of the election process that could have undermined the legitimacy of the president-elect.”

     

    That was a reference to the breach of the Democratic National Committee’s email system, and the leak of emails from figures like John D. Podesta, Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman.

     

    “Nevertheless, we stand behind our election results, which accurately reflect the will of the American people,” it added.

     

    The recount efforts have generated pushback by experts who said it would be enormously difficult to hack voting machines on a large scale. The administration, in its statement, confirmed reports from the Department of Homeland Security and intelligence officials that they did not see “any increased level of malicious cyberactivity aimed at disrupting our electoral process on Election Day.”

     

    The administration said it remained “confident in the overall integrity of electoral infrastructure, a confidence that was borne out.” It added: “As a result, we believe our elections were free and fair from a cybersecurity perspective.”

    Hillary

     

    The statement from the White House was followed by a statement from Hillary’s general counsel, Marc Elias, who confirmed that they too “had not uncovered any actionable evidence of hacking or outside attempts to alter the voting technology.”

    Because we had not uncovered any actionable evidence of hacking or outside attempts to alter the voting technology, we had not planned to exercise this option ourselves, but now that a recount has been initiated in Wisconsin, we intend to participate in order to ensure the process proceeds in a manner that is fair to all sides. If Jill Stein follows through as she has promised and pursues recounts in Pennsylvania and Michigan, we will take the same approach in those states as well. We do so fully aware that the number of votes separating Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in the closest of these states—Michigan—well exceeds the largest margin ever overcome in a recount.

    Of course, while Stein reiterated numerous allegations of foreign
    hacking that were well circulated, yet never officially linked to a specific source, before the election, her petition didn’t offer a single shred of actual, tangible evidence that the election results in Wisconsin were in anyway tampered with. 

    In August 2016, it was widely reported that foreign operators breached voter registration databases in at least two states and stole hundreds of thousands of voter records.

     

    Around that time, hacker infiltrated the e-mail systems of the Democratic National Committee and a campaign official for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.  These e-mails were then published online. 

     

    On October 7, 2016, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence on Election Security issued a joint statement regarding these breaches.  The statement reads, in pertinent part, as follows:  “The U.S. Intelligence Community (USCI) is confident” that there have been “recent compromises of e-mails from US persons and institutions, including from US political organizations.”  It also states that “[t]here thefts and disclosures are intended to interfere with the US election process” and that “similar tactics and techniques [have been used] across Europe and Eurasia…to influence public opinion there.”  In the statement, DHS urges state election officials “to be vigilant and seek cybersecurity assistance” from that agency in preparation for the presidential election.

     

    In Wisconsin, there is evidence of voting irregularities in the 2016 presidential election that indicate potential tampering with electronic voting systems.  Specifically, there was a significant increase in the number of absentee voters as compared to the last general election.  This significant increase could be attributed to a breach of the state’s electronic voter database.

     

    The well-documented and conclusive evidence of foreign interference in the presidential race before the election, along with the irregularities observed in Wisconsin, call into question the results and indicate the possibility that a widespread breach occurred.

    Jill Stein

     

    Even her so-called “computer science expert” offered up nothing more than baseless theories on “plausible” explanations of how the Wisconsin results may have been hacked.  Sure, because it’s just so impossible to believe that a flawed candidate with multiple ongoing FBI criminal investigations may have simply lost the election.   

    WI

     

    So, the question becomes how will Jill Stein respond now that the establishment seems to be turning on her and what exactly will happen to the $5.8mm she raised if recount efforts are suspended?  Somehow we suspect the disaffected Hillary donors won’t simply get their money back.

    JS

    * * *

    As an update, after coming under attack from almost everyone today for her unfounded recount crusade, Jill Stein has lashed out against her critics with a tweet storm of her own.  Among other things, Stein vowed to file recount petitions in any state where the applicable deadlines had not passed and lashed out at the other parties for not participating amid “so many questionable results.” Might we respectfully suggest, Ms. Stein, that more people may take an interest in your efforts if you could offer up a single shred of evidence to support your wild accusations.

     

    Apparently, suggestions that Stein is merely serving as a pawn of the Clinton campaign also struck a nerve.

     

    Finally, perhaps the following tweet sums up the whole ludicrous situation the best:

  • More Lies From The 'Experts': "Get Trump At All Costs"

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    As flyover America has been suffering economically for many years, these Americans were immune to the oligarchy’s anti-Trump propaganda. However, everyone else in the country was taken in by the propaganda – liberals, progressives, the remnant of the leftwing, and even Patrick Martin of the World Socialist Web Site who normally writes intelligent commentary.

    Like Green candidate Jill Stein, Patrick Martin wants a vote recount that could be manipulated to put Hillary in the White House. Apparently, Martin is unfamiliar with Hillary and her record of war crimes. Instead of expressing relief that the agent of the military/security complex, who has threatened military action against Russia and demonizes the Russian president as “the new Hitler,” was not elected, Martin unloads on Trump who has stated his goal of reduced tensions between nuclear powers. Trump’s government, Martin writes, “will undoubtedly be the most reactionary, militaristic and dictatorial government in American history.”

    If war and dictatorship aren’t enough, Daniel Altman tells us that Trump will bankrupt us as well. We are on our way to debtors’ prison, says Daniel Altman in Foreign Policy:

    Americans already know what happens when this strategy comes to Washington. Reagan and the younger Bush let the nation live beyond its means, too, stealing from legions of unborn Americans to fund their grand ideas. They also stole from as-yet unelected presidents; whoever followed them in power would be the ones to pay the piper. Their own party would return when times were good again.

     

    A combination of rapidly rising deficits and higher interest rates could make the nation’s debt unsustainable even within Trump’s four-year term — and that’s if his stimulus works. If he stays true to his record in business, another bankruptcy could be on the horizon. This time, though, there won’t be any second chances, and all Americans will be left holding the bag.

    Altman doesn’t seem to know any more about his subject than Martin knows about Hillary. Altman writes as if the tax and spending policies of Ronald Reagan and “the younger Bush” are responsible for the national debt by letting the nation “live beyond its means, stealing from legions of unborn Americans to fund their grand ideas.”

    As economist J.W. Mason has shown, Reagan did not increase the national debt. During the Reagan years, the growth in the national debt was due to the high interest rates imposed by the Federal Reserve (in my opinion in the Establishment’s attempt to wreck the Reagan program).
    Mason shows that it was the Fed-imposed increase in interest rates on the debt that raised the national debt.

    The standard historical narrative about President Ronald Reagan's budgets goes like this: He slashed taxes for the rich, spent a ton of money on the military, and the national debt exploded.

     

    Now, that is a fair description of his policies. But it turns out Reagan may have gotten a bad rap on the debt charge.

     

    In fact, the major culprit was another, often overlooked player: interest payments. Just why exactly this happened is extremely interesting, and also carries very important lessons for budgetary and monetary policy today. Put short, the conventional wisdom about debt and monetary policy is almost entirely wrong.

     

    So when centrist types argue for austerity or greater interest rates as some kind of self-evident proposition, remember Reagan's bum rap. Remember, too, that the whole point of all this budget and monetary policy is to facilitate the business of human life, and not the other way around.

    In contrast, despite the Fed’s accommodation of the Oligarchy’s puppet, Obama, with zero interest rates, holds the record for the greatest increase in US national debt.

    Obama added $8 trillion dollars to the national debt…:

    One way to measure the debt by President is to sum all his budget deficits.

     

    That's because the President is responsible for his budget priorities. Each year's deficit takes into account budgeted spending and anticipated revenue from proposed tax cuts or hikes.

     

    But there's a difference between the deficit and the debt by President.

     

    That's because all Presidents can employ a sleight of hand to reduce the appearance of the deficit. They can borrow internally from other government sources. For example, the Social Security Trust Fund has run a surplus since 1987. That's because there were more working people contributing via payroll taxes than retired people withdrawing benefits. The Fund invests its surplus in U.S. Treasury notes. The President can reduce the deficit by spending these funds instead of issuing new Treasuries.

     

    *  *  *

     

    Barack Obama – The national debt grew the most dollar-wise during President Obama's two terms. He added $7.917 trillion, a 68 percent increase, in seven years. Obama's budgets included the economic stimulus package. It added $787 billion by cutting taxes, extending unemployment benefits, and funding job-creating public works projects. The Obama tax cuts added $858 billion to the debt in two years. Obama's budget included increased defense spending to between $700 billion and $800 billion a year.

     

    Federal income was down, thanks to lower tax receipts from the 2008 financial crisis. He also sponsored the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. It was designed to reduce the debt by $143 billion over ten years. But these savings didn't show up until the later years. For more, see National Debt Under Obama.

     

    George W. Bush – President Bush added the second greatest amount to the debt, at $5.849 trillion. But that was a 101 percent increase to the debt. It was $5.8 trillion on September 30, 2001. That's the end of FY 2001, which was President Clinton's last budget. Bush responded to the 9/11 attacks by launching the War on Terror. That drove military spending to record levels of between $600-$800 billion a year. It included the Iraq War, which cost $807.5 billion. President Bush also responded to the 2001 recession by passing EGTRRA and JGTRRA. These were known as the Bush tax cuts and they further reduced revenue. He approved a $700 billion bailout package for banks to combat the 2008 global financial crisis.  Both Presidents Bush and Obama had to contend with higher mandatory spending for Social Security and Medicare. For more, see President Obama Compared to President Bush Policies.

     

    Franklin D. Roosevelt – President Roosevelt increased the debt the most percentage-wise. Although he only added $236 billion, this was a 1,048 percent increase over the $23 billion debt level left by President Hoover's last budget. Of course, the Great Depression took an enormous bite out of revenues. The New Deal cost billions. But FDR's debt major contribution to the debt was World War II spending. He added $209 billion to the debt between 1942-1945. For more, see FDR Economic Policies.

     

    Woodrow Wilson – President Wilson was the second largest contributor to the debt percentage-wise. Although he only added $21 billion, this was a 727 percent increase over the $2.9 billion debt level of his predecessor. Wilson had to pay for World War I. In fact, the Second Liberty Bond Act was enacted during his Presidency, giving Congress the right to adopt the national debt ceiling.

    So, simply put, the leftist lies continue in their effort to besmirch the president-elect "at all costs."

  • These Are The 48 Organizations That Now Have Access To Every Brit's Browsing History

    Last week, in a troubling development for privacy advocates everywhere, we reported that the UK has passed the “snooper charter” effectively ending all online privacy. Now, the mainstream media has caught on and appears to be displeased. As AP writes today, “after months of wrangling, Parliament has passed a contentious new snooping law that gives authorities — from police and spies to food regulators, fire officials and tax inspectors — powers to look at the internet browsing records of everyone in the country.”

    For those who missed our original reports, here is the new law in a nutshell: it requires telecom companies to keep records of all users’ web activity for a year, creating databases of personal information that the firms worry could be vulnerable to leaks and hackers. Civil liberties groups say the law establishes mass surveillance of British citizens, following innocent internet users from the office to the living room and the bedroom. They are right.

    While Edward Snowden previously blasted the law, none other than Tim Berners-Lee, the man credited with inventing World Wide Web, tweeted news of the law’s passage with the words: “Dark, dark days.”

    Coming at a time when the mainstream media is lashing out at non-traditional websites, which it brands either with the derogatory “altright”, or simply slams as “Russian propaganda” to deflect from the fact that the MSM has been exposed as being a PR arm of the ruling establishment, the Investigatory Powers Bill-  called the “snoopers’ charter” by critics –  was passed by UK Parliament this month after more than a year of debate and amendments, and with its passage shifts “1984” from the fiction to the non-fiction section, as the formation of the surveillance police state is now effectively complete.

    The charter will become law when it receives the formality of royal assent next week but – as AP notes – big questions remain about how it will work, and the government acknowledges it could be 12 months before internet firms have to start storing the records.

    “It won’t happen in a big bang next week,” Home Office official Chris Mills told a meeting of internet service providers on Thursday. “It will be a phased program of the introduction of the measures over a year or so.”

    The government says the new law “ensures powers are fit for the digital age,” replacing a patchwork of often outdated rules and giving law-enforcement agencies the tools to fight terrorism and serious crime.

    In a move right out of the Soviet Union’s darkest days (which never even imagned central planning to the extent that modern “developed market” central bankers have unleashed this decade), the law requires telecommunications companies to store for a year the web histories known as internet connection records — a list of websites each person has visited and the apps and messaging services they used, though not the individual pages they looked at or the messages they sent.

    The government has called that information the modern equivalent of an itemized phone bill. But critics say it’s more like a personal diary. Julian Huppert, a former Liberal Democrat lawmaker who opposed the bill, said it “creates a very intrusive database.”

    “People may have been to the Depression Alliance website, or a marriage guidance website, or an abortion provider’s website, or all sorts of things which are very personal and private,” he said.

    Officials won’t need a warrant to access the data, and the list of bodies that can see it includes not just the police and intelligence services, but government departments, revenue and customs officials and even the Food Standards Agency. “My worry is partly about their access,” Huppert said. “But it’s much more deeply about the prospects for either hacking or people selling information on.”

    Even worse, the new law also makes official — and legal — British spies’ ability to hack into devices and harvest vast amounts of bulk online data, much of it from outside the U.K. In doing so, it both acknowledges and sets limits on the secretive mass-snooping schemes exposed by Edward Snowden.

    * * *

    Which government agencies have access to the internet history of any British citizen? Here is the answer courtesy of blogger Chris Yuo, who has compiled the list:

    • Metropolitan police force
    • City of London police force
    • Police forces maintained under section 2 of the Police Act 1996
    • Police Service of Scotland
    • Police Service of Northern Ireland
    • British Transport Police
    • Ministry of Defence Police
    • Royal Navy Police
    • Royal Military Police
    • Royal Air Force Police
    • Security Service
    • Secret Intelligence Service
    • GCHQ
    • Ministry of Defence
    • Department of Health
    • Home Office
    • Ministry of Justice
    • National Crime Agency
    • HM Revenue & Customs
    • Department for Transport
    • Department for Work and Pensions
    • NHS trusts and foundation trusts in England that provide ambulance services
    • Common Services Agency for the Scottish Health Service
    • Competition and Markets Authority
    • Criminal Cases Review Commission
    • Department for Communities in Northern Ireland
    • Department for the Economy in Northern Ireland
    • Department of Justice in Northern Ireland
    • Financial Conduct Authority
    • Fire and rescue authorities under the Fire and Rescue Services Act 2004
    • Food Standards Agency
    • Food Standards Scotland
    • Gambling Commission
    • Gangmasters and Labour Abuse Authority
    • Health and Safety Executive
    • Independent Police Complaints Commissioner
    • Information Commissioner
    • NHS Business Services Authority
    • Northern Ireland Ambulance Service Health and Social Care Trust
    • Northern Ireland Fire and Rescue Service Board
    • Northern Ireland Health and Social Care Regional Business Services Organisation
    • Office of Communications
    • Office of the Police Ombudsman for Northern Ireland
    • Police Investigations and Review Commissioner
    • Scottish Ambulance Service Board
    • Scottish Criminal Cases Review Commission
    • Serious Fraud Office
    • Welsh Ambulance Services National Health Service Trust

    In other words, everyone.

    * * *

    While privacy groups unsucessfully battled to stop the new legislation, and now will challenge it in court, public opposition has been largely muted in part because the bill’s passage has been overshadowed by Britain’s vote to leave the European Union and the scandalous upheaval that has followed.

    How did that old saying go… “don’t let a crisis go to waste.” Well, the UK is now independent from Europe, and in the process its population quietly lost all of its internet privacy.

    Renate Samson, chief executive of the group Big Brother Watch, said it would take time for the full implications of the law to become clear to the public.

    “We now live in a digital world. We are digital citizens,” Samson said. “We have no choice about whether or not we engage online. This bill has fundamentally changed how we are able to privately and securely communicate with one another, communicate with business, communicate with government and live an online life. And that’s a real, profound concern.”

    It remains to be seen if the UK’s citizens will be able overturn the law once it does become clear to the public what has just happened.

  • Who Pays What Taxes In The US

    Every presidential election brings with it a renewed debate on taxes: should tax rates be increased or decreased (which in turn forces economists to break out their textbooks to brush up on their Laffer curve definitions)? Traditionally, the question eventually boils down to one thing: what should the tax treatment of the “rich” be: should the wealthy pay more or less in taxes?

    Why the particular focus on the rich? The answer is simple: while those American who declare $500,000 and above in income represent less than 1% of total tax returns, they account for a quarter of taxable income and – more importantly – are responsible for 37% of government revenues collected through individual income taxes.

    And with approximately $1.55 trillion in individual income tax expected to be collected in 2016, this means that less than 1% of US taxpayers will be responsible for more than a third, or roughly $575 billion in government revenue, nearly double what corporate income taxes ($300 billion) are expected to bring in.

    To any readers surprised by this, here are further details from the St Louis Fed’s Fernando Martin and his recent note “A Closer Look at Federal Taxes

    * * *

    The first table provides a snapshot of revenues collected by the U.S. federal government for fiscal year 2016. Total revenue was $3.3 trillion, or roughly 18 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Almost half of this revenue comes from individual income taxes. About one-third comes from payroll taxes, which are collected to fund Social Security, Medicare, and other social insurance benefits. Only 9 percent of total revenue comes from corporate income taxes, while another 9 percent comes from various sources (e.g., excise taxes, estate and gift taxes, and custom duties). These proportions have been stable in recent years.

    Given the prominent role individual income taxes play in financing the federal government, this essay inspects these taxes in more detail. The second table breaks down individual income taxes by adjusted gross income brackets and four categories. The first three are relative to total filings: the share of returns; the share of taxable income generated (note that about one-third of returns report zero taxable income); and the share of tax revenue collected. The final category is the implied average tax rate. The data are for fiscal year 2014, the latest available for tax revenue by income levels. Notably, the data do not distinguish between single or joint (filed with a spouse) tax returns.

    The differences in individual income tax collection at the extremes of the income distribution are striking. Filers earning less than $50,000 annually account for nearly two-thirds of all tax returns but contribute 7 percent of total revenue. Around half of the filers in this group report zero taxable income4; for those with taxable income, the average income tax rate is 12 percent.5 In contrast, filers making at least $1 million annually account for 0.3 percent of all tax returns and contribute 27 percent of total revenue. Their average tax rate—31 percent—is almost triple that of filers in the lowest income bracket.

    Due to the progressive nature of the U.S. income tax code, average tax rates increase up the income ladder. Each income group’s contribution to total revenue, however, depends not only on their tax rate but also on the number of filers in the group and how much income they generate. For example, tax filers earning between $100,000 and $199,999 annually face an average income tax rate of 17 percent but contribute 22 percent of revenue, very close to the proportion contributed by those earning $1 million or more. The reason is that there are many more filers in the former group (12 percent versus 0.3 percent), who together generate about one-quarter of total taxable income (versus 17 percent for the highest earners).

    These properties of the income distribution have profound implications for the likely effects of tax reform. For example, tax cuts for the middle class, even minor ones, would imply big declines in revenue; and collecting significantly more revenue from the rich would necessitate large tax hikes.

    To illustrate this point, consider a simple back-of-the-envelope calculation. Suppose the desire is to cover the deficit by increasing the tax rates of the top income earners. The current deficit estimate for fiscal year 2016 is $590 billion. Income taxes collected from filers earning $500,000 or more annually (the top 1 percent) add up to roughly the same amount as the deficit. The tax rate of this group would need to double to collect enough revenue from the group to cover the deficit. Specifically, their average tax rate would need to increase from 30 percent to around 60 percent. A tax increase of this magnitude, however, might decrease the incentives for high-income earners to work as hard and encourage them to seek new ways to shield their income. Hence, in practice, the tax rate may need to be raised further and even then might not be enough to raise all the additional revenue.

    Individual income taxes only partially reveal how the burden of federal taxation is distributed among different income groups. For low-income earners, payroll taxes constitute a significant portion of tax liabilities. The current Social Security and Medicaid withholding rates are 6.20 percent and 1.45 percent, respectively (in addition, employers must also match these contributions). Thus, the average tax rate faced by an individual making less than $50,000 annually and reporting positive taxable income is 12 percent in income taxes plus 7.65 percent; that is, almost 20 percent of income. Since wages contribute less to total income for higher-income earners, payroll taxes play a less significant role at the top. In other words, payroll taxes are regressive. Note, however, that the benefits they provide are progressive, as-high income earners rely more heavily on other sources of funding for retirement and healthcare (e.g., a 401(k) retirement plan).

  • Iran Loses Nuclear Device, Sparks GCC Concerns

    The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is concerned over a missing radioactive device from Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor, Saudi-owned Arab newspaper Asharq al-Awsat reported on Thursday.

    Furthermore, as OilPrice.com's Tsvetana Paraskova notes, aside from the security concerns, at the forefront in the GCC’s mind is what impact the radioactive device – wherever it may be today – could have on water supplies.

    According to the newspaper, the device went missing after the car transporting it was stolen. Thankfully, the vehicle was recovered, but the radioactive nuclear device was not so lucky.

    The GCC has contacted the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) over the incident – both organizations are concerned that Iran’s nuclear program may pollute the waters in the Gulf, Asharq al-Awsat quoted GCC Emergency Management Center chairman, Adnan al-Tamimi, as saying.

    Most members of the GCC – which includes Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman – desalinate sea water from the Gulf. If contamination from the device were to reach desalination stations, an already critical situation becomes even more critical.

    The missing device is set to lose half of its power after 74 days of inactivity, Tamimi said, noting that it still should be handled with care even after that period.

    Speaking to Asharq al-Awsat, the Arab official criticized Iran’s low security and safety levels at the Bushehr reactor, adding that the lack of Iranian transparency about its nuclear program adds further concerns and anxiousness for the Arab Gulf states.

    Iran’s nuclear program has recently entered the spotlight again after Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election. In March of this year, Trump said in a speech addressing the American Israel Public Affairs Committee:

    “My number-one priority is to dismantle the disastrous deal with Iran.”

    If Trump were willing and able to deliver on that promise by tearing up the deal, Iran would once again impact the oil market, dragging down Iran’s oil exports from the near-pre-sanctions levels it has almost reached in recent months.

    Last week, the U.S. House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly in favor of extending the Iran Sanctions Act (ISA) from 1996 through December 31, 2026. The act—adopted long before the most recent international sanctions against Tehran—was aimed at punishing investments in the Iranian energy industry and deterring the country from pursuing the development of nuclear weapons.

    Last week’s bill to extend the ISA after its expiry next month still needs Senate approval and President Obama’s signature to become law.

  • Towards An 'America First' Trump Trade Policy

    Submitted by Patrick Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

    Donald Trump’s election triumph is among the more astonishing in history.

    Yet if he wishes to become the father of a new “America First” majority party, he must make good on his solemn promise:

    To end the trade deficits that have bled our country of scores of thousands of factories, and to create millions of manufacturing jobs in the USA.

    Fail here, and those slim majorities in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin disappear.

    The president-elect takes credit for jawboning William Clay Ford to keep his Lincoln plant in Louisville. He is now jawboning Carrier air conditioning to stay in Indiana and not move to Mexico.

    Good for him. But these are baby steps toward ending the $800 billion trade deficits in goods America runs annually, or bringing back factories and creating millions of new manufacturing jobs in the USA.

    The NAFTA Republicans tell us the plants and jobs are never coming back, that we live in a globalized world, that production will now be done where it can be done cheapest — in Mexico, China, Asia.

    Yet, on Nov. 8, Americans rejected this defeatism rooted in the tracts of 19th-century British scribblers and the ideology of 20th-century globalists like Woodrow Wilson and FDR.

    America responded to Trump’s call for a new nationalism rooted in the economic principles and patriotism of Hamilton and the men of Mount Rushmore: Washington, Lincoln, Jefferson and Theodore Roosevelt.

    The president-elect has declared the TPP dead, and says he and his negotiators will walk away rather than accept another NAFTA.

    Again, good, but again, not good enough, not nearly.

    The New International Economic Order imposed upon us for decades has to be overthrown.

    For the root cause of the trade deficits bleeding us lies in U.S. tax laws and trade policies that punish companies that stay in America and reward companies that move production overseas.

    Executives move plants to Mexico, Asia and China for the same reason U.S. industrialists moved plants from the Frost Belt to the Sun Belt. Given the lower wages and lighter regulations, they can produce more cheaply there.

    In dealing with advanced economies like Japan, Germany, and the EU, another critical factor is at work against us.

    Since the Kennedy Round of trade negotiations, 50 years ago, international trade deals have reduced tariffs to insignificance.

    But our trade rivals have replaced the tariffs with value-added taxes on imports from the USA. Even to belong to the EU, a country must have a VAT of at least 15 percent.

    As Kevin Kearns of the U.S. Business and Industry Council writes, Europeans have replaced tariffs on U.S. goods with a VAT on U.S. goods, while rebating the VAT on Europe’s exports to us.

    Some 160 countries impose VAT taxes. Along with currency manipulation, this is how European and Asian protectionists stick it to the Americans, whose armed forces have defended them for 60 years.

    We lose at trade negotiations, even before we sit down at the table, because our adversaries declare their VAT nonnegotiable. And we accept it.

    Trump has to persuade Congress to deal him and our trade negotiators our own high cards, without our having to go to the WTO and asking, “Mother, may I?”

    Like this writer, Kearns argues for an 18 percent VAT on all goods and services entering the United States. All tax revenue raised by the VAT — hundreds of billions — should be used to reduce U.S. taxes, beginning by ending the income tax on small business and reducing to the lowest rate in the advanced world the U.S. corporate income tax.

    The price of foreign-made goods in U.S. stores would rise, giving a competitive advantage to goods made in America. And with a border VAT of 18 percent, every U.S. corporate executive would have to consider the higher cost of leaving the United States to produce abroad.

    Every foreign manufacturer, to maintain free access to the U.S. market of $17 trillion, greatest on earth, would have to consider shifting production — factories, technology, jobs — to the USA.

    The incentive to produce abroad would diminish and disappear. The incentive to produce here would grow correspondingly.

    Inversions — U.S. companies seeking lower tax rates by moving to places like Ireland — would end. Foreign companies and banks would be clamoring to get into the United States.

    With a zero corporate tax, minority businesses would spring up. Existing businesses would have more cash to hire. America would shove China aside as the Enterprise Zone of the world.

    Most important, by having Americans buy more from each other, and rely more on each other for the necessities of life, U.S. trade and tax policies would work to create a greater interdependence among us, rather than pull us apart as they do today.

    Why not write new tax and trade laws that bring us together, recreating the one nation and people we once were — and can be again?

  • Risk Parity Funds Suffer Worst Month Since 2015 As Breadthless, Fearless Stock Market Soars

    The market moves since the US elections have been both big and surprising, and as JPMorgan notes, fund managers have been either too slow or too reluctant to jump into the Trump trade. However, algo-based Risk-Parity funds suffered the most with their biggest loss since Dec 2015 as market 'fear' tumbles to 9 month lows (and stocks are the most overbought in 13 years).

     

    Risk Parity funds were hurt as their equity gains were not enough to offset the sharp selloff in bonds on which Risk Parity funds are typically exposed by four times as much as equities. Correlation between stocks and bonds has normalized thanks to this huge post-Trump divergence (but we note the last time the regime shifted like this was ahead of August 2015's equity plunge)…

     

    U.S. stock markets are signaling calm waters ahead. As Bloomberg reports, the Credit Suisse Fear Barometer has tumbled 25% since the day before the presidential election, while the S&P 500 Index reached an all-time high. The gauge that compares bearish options prices with bullish ones three months from now has dropped to its lowest level since February.

     

    So 'Fear' is absent, and as CNN notes, Greed is on the rise…

     

    Greed indeed – with Small Caps up and almost unprecedented 15 days in a row. The last time they were this overbought (in 2010), the Russell 2000 fell 21% in the following two months…

     

    Bonds are the most oversold since 2007 (after which they exploded higher in price, lower in yield)

     

    And equity market breadth certainly not supportive…

     

    Of course, with The Fed about to hike rates (with certainty) and financial conditions tightening drastically, what could possibly go wrong?

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Today’s News 26th November 2016

  • Trump The Great?

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    Liberals, progressives, and the left-wing (to the extent that one still exists) are aligning with the corrupt oligarchy against president-elect Trump and the American people.

    They are busy at work trying to generate hysteria over Trump’s “authoritarian personality and followers.” In other words, the message is: here come the fascists.

    Liberals and progressives wailed and whined about “an all white male cabinet,” only to be made fools by Trump’s appointment of a black male and two women, one a minority and one a Trump critic.

    The oligarchs are organizing their liberal progressive front groups to disrupt Trump’s inauguration in an effort to continue the attempt to delegitimize Trump the way the paid Maidan protesters were used in Kiev to delegitimize the elected Ukrainian government.

    To the extent any of the Trump protesters are sincere and not merely paid tools of oligarchs, such as George Soros, military and financial interests, and global capitalists, they should consider that false claims and unjustified criticism can cause Trump and his supporters to close their ears to all criticism and make it easier for neoconservatives to influence Trump by offering support.

    At this point we don’t know what a Trump government is going to do. If he sells out the people, he won’t be reelected. If he is defeated by the oligarchy, the people will become more radical.

    We do not know how Washington insiders appointed to the government will behave inside a Trump presidency. Unless they are ideologues like the neoconservatives or agents of powerful interests, insiders survive by going along with the current. If the current changes under Trump, so will the insiders.

    Trump got elected because flyover America has had all it can take from the self-dealing oligarchy. The vast bullk of America has seen its economic prospects and that of children and grandchildren decline for a quarter century. The states Hillary carried are limited to the liberal enclaves and oligarchy’s stomping grounds on the NE and West coasts and in Colorado and New Mexico, where effete wealthy liberals have located because of the scenary. If you look at the red/blue electoral map, geographically speaking Hillary’s support is very limited.

    We know that Hillary is an agent for the One Percent. The Clintons $120 million personal wealth and $1.6 billion personal foundation are proof that the Clintons are bought-and-paid-for. We know that Hillary is responsible for the destruction of Libya and of much of Syria and for the overthrow of the democratically elected government in Ukraine. We know that the Clinton regime’s sanctions on Iraq resulted in the deaths of 500,000 children. These are war crimes and crimes against humanity. We know Hillary used government office for private gain. We know she violated national security laws without being held accountable. What we don’t know is why groups that allegedly are liberal-progressive-leftwing are such fervent supporters of Hillary.

    One possible answer is that these groups are mere fronts for vested interests and are devoid of any sincere motives.

    Another possible answer is that these groups believe that the important issues are not jobs for Americans and avoiding war with nuclear powers, but transgender, homosexual and illegal alien rights.

    Another possible answer is that these groups are uninformed and stupid.

    What these protesters see as a threat in Trump’s strong and willful personality is actually a virtue. A cipher like Obama has no more ability to stand up to the oligarchy than a disengaged George W. Bush so easily stage-managed by Dick Cheney. Nothing less than an authoritarian style and personality is a match for the well-entrenched ruling oligarchy and willful neoconservatives. If Trump were a shrinking violet, the electorate would have ignored him.

    Trump did not purchase his presidency with the offer of handouts to blacks, the poor generally, teachers unions, farmers, abortion rights for women, etc. Trump was elected because he said: “Those who control the levers of power in Washington and the global special interests they partner with, don’t have your good in mind. It’s a global power structure that is responsible for the economic decisions that have robbed our working class, stripped our country of its wealth and put that money into the pockets of a handful of large corporations and political entities. The only thing that can stop this corrupt machine is you.”

    It has been a long time since the electorate heard this kind of talk from someone seeking public office. Trump’s words are what Americans were waiting to hear.

    As willful as Trump is, he is only one person. The oligarchy are many.

    As impressive as Trump’s billion dollars is, the oligarchs have trillions.

    Congress being in Republican hands will spare Trump partisan obstruction, but Congress remains in the hands of interest groups.

    As powerful as the office of the president can be, without unity in government changes from the top don’t occur, especially if the president is at odds with the military with regard to the alleged threat posed by Russia and China. Trump says he wants peace with the nuclear powers. The military/security complex needs an enemy for its budget.

    It is absolutely necessary that a lid be put on tensions between nuclear powers and that economic opportunity reappears for the American people. Trump is not positioned to benefit from war and jobs offshoring. The only sensible strategy is to support him on these issues and to hold his feet to the fire.

    As for the immigration issue, the Obama Justice (sic) Department has just worsened the picture with its ruling that American police departments cannot discriminate against non-citizens by only hiring citizens as officers. Now that US citizens face arrest in their own country by non-citizens, the resentment of immigrants will increase. Clearly it is nonsensical to devalue American citizenship in this way. Clearly it is sensible to put a lid on immigration until the US economy is again able to create jobs capable of sustaining an independent existence.

    If Trump can defeat the oligarchy and save America, he can go down in history as Trump the Great. I think that this prospect appeals to Trump more than more wealth. Instead of trying to tear him down in advance, he should be supported. With Trump’s determination and the people’s support, change from the top down is possible. Otherwise, change has to come from the bottom up, and that means an awful lot of blood in the streets.

  • Marc Hanson: "Houses Have Never Been More Expensive To Buyers Who Need A Mortgage"

    From Marc Hanson of M Hanson Advisors

    Houses have NEVER BEEN MORE EXPENSIVE to end-user, mortgage-needing shelter buyers. The recent rate surge crushed what little affordability remained in US housing. It now it requires 45% more income to buy the average-priced house than just four years ago, as incomes have not kept pace it goes without saying.

    The spike in rates has taken “UNAFFORDABILITY” to such extremes that prices, rates, and/or credit are now radically out of scope.

    At these interest rate levels house prices are simply not sustainable even in the lower-end price bands, which were far more stable than the middle-to-higher end bands (have been under significant pressure since spring).

    * * *

    The Data (note, for simplicity my models assume best-case 20% down and A-grade credit, which is the “minority” of lower-to-middle end buyers).

    1) The average $361k builder house requires nearly $65k in income assuming a 4.5% rate, 20% down, and A-grade credit. Problem is, 20% + A-credit are hard to come by. For buyers with less down or worse credit, far more than $65k is needed.

    For the past 30-YEARS income required to buy the average priced house has remained relatively consistent, as mortgage rate credit manipulation made houses cheaper.

    Bottom line: Reversion to the mean will occur through house price declines, credit easing, a mortgage rate plunge to the high 2%’s, or a combination of all three. However, because rates are still historically low and mortgage guidelines historically easy, the path of least resistance is lower house prices.

     

    2) The average $274k builder house requires nearly $53k in income assuming a 4.5% rate, 20% down, and A-grade credit. Problem is, 20% + A-credit are hard to come by. For buyers with less down or worse credit, far more than $53k is needed.

    For the past 30-YEARS income required to buy the average priced house has remained relatively consistent, as mortgage rate credit manipulation made houses cheaper.

    Bottom line: Reversion to the mean will occur through house price declines, credit easing, a mortgage rate plunge to the high 2%s, or a combination of all three. However, because rates are still historically low and mortgage guidelines historically easy, the path of least resistance is lower house prices.

     

    3) Bonus Chart … Case-Shiller Coast-to-Coast Bubbles

    Bottom line: IT’S NEVER DIFFERENT THIS TIME. Easy/cheap/deep credit & liquidity has found its way to real estate yet again. Bubbles are bubbles are bubbles. And as these core housing markets hit a wall they will take the rest of the nation with them; bubbles and busts don’t happen in “isolation.”

    Case-Shiller’s most Bubblicious Regions

    • Ask Yourself: If 2005-07 was the peak of the largest housing bubble in history with “affordability” never better vis a’ vis exotic loans; easy availability of credit; unemployment in the 4%’s; the total workforce at record highs; and growing wages, then what do you call “now” with house prices at or above 2006 levels; high unaffordability; tighter credit; higher unemployment; a weak total workforce; and shrinking (at best) wages?
    • Logical Answer: Whatever you call it, it’s a greater thing than the Bubble 1.0 peak.

    The mind-numbing Case-Shiller regional charts below are presented without too much comment. The visual says it all.

  • Lone Blogger Rages Against The Washington Post's Russian "Hit List"

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    I have to admit I’m quite honored to see that Liberty Blitzkrieg was recently included on a list of some of the most illustrious, impactful and successful alternative news websites on the planet.

    The list was created by an anonymous group of status quo crybabies who simply can’t handle the fact their beloved chosen oligarch was defeated in a democratically held election by Donald Trump (who I didn’t even support). As such, they are lashing out at alternative news outlets deemed most effective in countering the smothering and nonsensical pro-Hillary narrative tirelessly propagated by the fake mainstream news media.

    The group in question calls itself PropOrNot, and self-describes in the following manner:

    PropOrNot is an independent team of concerned American citizens with a wide range of backgrounds and expertise, including professional experience in computer science, statistics, public policy, and national security affairs. We are currently volunteering time and skills to identify propaganda – particularly Russian propaganda – targeting a U.S. audience. We collect public-record information connecting propaganda outlets to each other and their coordinators abroad, analyze what we find, act as a central repository and point of reference for related information, and organize efforts to oppose it.

     

    We formed PropOrNot as an effort to prevent propaganda from distorting U.S. political and policy discussions. We hope to strengthen our cultural immune systems against hostile influence and improve public discourse generally. However, our immediate aim at this point is to empower the American voter and decrease the ability of Russia to influence the ensuing American election.

    Unfortunately, this is apparently all we know so far about this shadowy organization, which is simply hilarious considering the group deems any alternative news source that does not agree with the U.S. government narrative to be either outright Russian propaganda, or “useful idiots.”

    Here’s “the list:”

    What’s particularly interesting about this list, isn’t the fact that a bunch of anonymous whiners decided to demonize successful critics of insane, inhumane and ethically indefensible U.S. government policy, but rather the fact that the Washington Post decided to craft an entire article around such a laughably ridiculous list. This just further proves a point that is rapidly becoming common knowledge amongst U.S. citizens with more than a couple of brain cells to rub together. The mainstream media is the real “fake news.”

    Let’s take Liberty Blitzkrieg for example. Despite the fact that my site is mentioned on “the list,” nobody from PropOrNot bothered to contact me while doing their “research.” They could’ve asked very simple questions about how the site is run, who owns it, and who makes decisions about editorial content. Furthermore, I doubt they did any such research with regard to any of the mentioned sites before slandering them.

    Since they failed to do any real work, let me answer several of these questions. I, Michael Krieger am the 100% owner of Liberty Blitzkrieg. I, Michael Krieger am the only person who makes decisions on what to publish and when. I have absolutely no connections, financial or otherwise, to the Russian government, Russian interests, or the interests of any other government or government related group. Moreover, there is simply nobody on planet earth who has any influence on what I write or what I publish. I left a very successful and financially lucrative job to do what I do now because my passions and ethical grounding pushed me in this direction. If I was interested in making enormous sums of money, I could’ve easily stayed on Wall Street.

    Moreover, I rarely write about Russia, with the exception of trying to prevent insane neocons and neoliberals in our government from actively seeking a military confrontation, because I — like most normal human beings — would prefer not to contribute to the manifestation of World War 3. Likewise, I try to prevent war breaking out in all circumstances where I think it can and should be avoided. I intentionally almost never use RT as a source, and I’ve never quoted anything from Sputnik. Unlike The Washington Post, I try to be extremely diligent about not publishing fake news, but I am a very strong critic of U.S. government policy, because much of U.S. government policy is certifiably insane and unethical. You can disagree with my opinion on that all you’d like, but I challenge anyone to find anything that could reasonably be considered pro-Russia propaganda on my website. If Liberty Blitzkrieg really is a Russian propaganda site, this should be easy to do since I’ve published thousands of articles over the years.

    For those who ask why I focus on the transgressions of the U.S. government as opposed to foreign governments, the answer should be quite obvious. I am a U.S. citizen. My responsibility is not to change the policies of foreign governments, but to make my own country as honorable and accountable as possible. As Noam Chomsky so eloquently noted:

    One of the most elementary moral truisms is that you are responsible for the anticipated consequences of your own actions. It is fine to talk about the crimes of Genghis Khan, but there isn’t much that you can do about them. If Soviet intellectuals chose to devote their energies to crimes of the U.S., which they could do nothing about, that is their business. We honor those who recognized that the first duty is to concentrate on your own country. And it is interesting that no one ever asks for an explanation, because in the case of official enemies, truisms are indeed truisms. It is when truisms are applied to ourselves that they become contentious, or even outrageous. But they remain truisms. In fact, the truisms hold far more for us than they did for Soviet dissidents, for the simple reason that we are in free societies, do not face repression, and can have a substantial influence on government policy. So if we adopt truisms, that is where we will focus most of our energy and commitment. The explanation is even more obvious than in the case of official enemies.

     

    Naturally, truisms are hated when applied to oneself. You can see it dramatically in the case of terrorism. In fact one of the reasons why I am considered “public enemy number one” among a large sector of intellectuals in the U.S. is that I mention that the U.S. is one of the major terrorist states in the world and this assertion, though plainly true, is unacceptable for many intellectuals, including left-liberal intellectuals, because if we faced such truths we could do something about the terrorist acts for which we are responsible, accepting elementary moral responsibilities instead of lauding ourselves for denouncing the crimes official enemies, about which we can often do very little.

     

    Elementary honesty is often uncomfortable, in personal life as well, and there are people who make great efforts to evade it. For intellectuals, throughout history, it has often come close to being their vocation. Intellectuals are commonly integrated into dominant institutions. Their privilege and prestige derives from adapting to the interests of power concentrations, often taking a critical look but in very limited ways. For example, one may criticize the war in Vietnam as a “mistake” that began with “benign intentions”. But it goes too far to say that the war is not “a mistake” but was “fundamentally wrong and immoral”. the position of about 70 percent of the public by the late 1960s, persisting until today, but of only a margin of intellectuals. The same is true of terrorism. In acceptable discourse, as can easily be demonstrated, the term is used to refer to terrorist acts that THEY carry out against US, not those that WE carry out against THEM. That is probably close to a historical universal. And there are innumerable other examples.

    The fake mainstream news media is completely failing. It is failing because rather than informing the public and criticizing the powerful, it has become merely a giant public relations organ for the U.S. government. The American public clearly sees through the bullshit, in large part due to the efforts of alternative news media. Think about it. Liberty Blitzkrieg doesn’t have a single outside employee. Other than the heroic efforts of my tech person (who spends very little of his time on this site), there’s really no one else contributing in any material way to the operation of this blog. So for a website run by a relatively unknown person to have made it onto this slanderous list (subsequently highlighted by the Washington Post), is not only a great honor, but a testament to the impact one person can have in an environment dominated by a transparently fake and desperate mainstream media.

    As I noted on Twitter earlier today.

    and

    To further demonstrate how desperate the failing mainstream media is to demonize its scrappy alternative news competitors, here’s how The Washington Post “reported” on the PropOrNot list:

    Another group, called PropOrNot, a nonpartisan collection of researchers with foreign policy, military and technology backgrounds, planned to release its own findings Friday showing the startling reach and effectiveness of Russian propaganda campaigns.

     

    The researchers used Internet analytics tools to trace the origins of particular tweets and mapped the connections among social-media accounts that consistently delivered synchronized messages. Identifying website codes sometimes revealed common ownership. In other cases, exact phrases or sentences were echoed by sites and social-media accounts in rapid succession, signaling membership in connected networks controlled by a single entity.

     

    PropOrNot’s monitoring report, which was provided to The Washington Post in advance of its public release, identifies more than 200 websites as routine peddlers of Russian propaganda during the election season, with combined audiences of at least 15 million Americans. On Facebook, PropOrNot estimates that stories planted or promoted by the disinformation campaign were viewed more than 213 million times.

    Interesting. I’d love to see what their “analytics tools” say about Liberty Blitzkrieg. Furthermore, what about that “common ownership” claim. As I mentioned before, I am the sole owner of Liberty Blitzkrieg. It seems PropOrNot is merely making shit up about successful websites they consider a threat. If The Washington Post’s decision to highligh such a list isn’t “fake news,” I don’t know what is.

    Further proving The Washington Post’s lack of any sort of journalistic standards, it highlights PropOrNot despite the fact that…

    “The way that this propaganda apparatus supported Trump was equivalent to some massive amount of a media buy,” said the executive director of PropOrNot, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid being targeted by Russia’s legions of skilled hackers. “It was like Russia was running a super PAC for Trump’s campaign. . . . It worked.”

    I mean, this is simply embarrassing.

    To conclude, the mainstream media is getting exactly what it deserves. Its impact is spiraling into irrelevance, its “journalists” bordering on the comical, and its standards beneath those of individual bloggers with zero staff and no budget. To conclude, the only thing I can ask of readers is the following: Support alternative media now more than ever. Put your money where your mouth is and help defeat the fake news mainstream media once and for all.

    To that end, I’d ask that you please visit the Liberty Blitzkrieg Support Page and consider contributing.

    I’ve written on this topic on several occasions. For more, see:

    Zerohedge Included in What NY Magazine Calls ‘Extremely Helpful List of Fake and Misleading News Sites’

    Obama Enters the Media Wars – Why His Recent Attack on Free Speech is So Dangerous and Radical

    Hillary Clinton Enters the Media Wars

    The Death of Mainstream Media

  • The Battle Of Black Friday: Visualizing The Winners And Losers

    Black Friday – the name elevates images of people standing in long lines, fighting the crowds to grab the best bargains of the year, and filling the shopping carts to the rims. But, as FreeShippingCode.com notes, from another perspective Black Friday is the day when retailers try to push their sales to the last limits in order to maximize their profits, i.e. move from red (loss) column to the black (profit).

    While the shoppers try to grab the best bargains of the year, the retailers, on the other hand, try to achieve their Black Friday sales targets, this battle continues till the end of the day to mark the winners and losers of this battle.

    Source: FreeShippingCode.com

    The Changing Battlefield

    Black Friday sales reached record levels in the last year, but if you are wondering why you did not see those long lines and scenes of shoppers fighting for the best bargains, it is because most of the Black Friday shopping last year was done online. Sales data from last year reveals that 51% Black Friday shoppers used their smartphones to shop online and only 49% headed to the shopping malls and big retail stores. Shoppers have all the good reasons to justify their choice of using their mobile phones and desktops to do their Black Friday shopping online.

    A Look At Some Of The Winners

    The online shopping landscape has dramatically changed the shopping behavior of Black Friday shoppers, as a result, many big retail giants with profound online presence and popularity are enjoying good sales and profits. Let us have a look at some of the major retailers who were able to make it to the victory stands last year.

    Amazon came first with a big chunk of the online sales (35%) in the last Black Friday season. Apple with its popular iPad and iPod brands also enjoyed a good Black Friday season last year. Similarly, REI despite its early announcement to remain closed on the big day recorded 26% increase in the online traffic.

    Every year Black Friday creates demand for thousands of new jobs. Retailers hire more than 70,000 part time seasonal workers and offer them handsome packages and bonuses to perform various tasks like managing distributions, dealing with customers, running store operations and stocking new inventories. These season workers are always the winners in this battle of sales and bargains.

    A Look At Some Of The Losers

    At the end of every epic Black Friday shop-a-thon, there are winners and there are losers. Let us have a look at some of the losers of Black Friday 2015.

    The brick and mortar shopping trend, in general, experienced a great decline in last year's Black Friday shopping event. ASDA, a Walmart subsidiary that introduced this event in the UK market failed to survive. Similarly, a lot of other big retail stores in the UK like Primark, John Lewis, Oasis, and Argos also reduced their participation or canceled it altogether. A lot of the online retail stores failed to handle the heavy traffic load and experienced downtime. John Lewis, for example, reported that one minute of downtown accounted for £75,000 in lost sales.

    In addition to the lost sales faced by the retailers, the consumers also faced losses in terms of injuries and deaths while shopping for discounted items on this one-day shopping bonanza. Since 2006 almost 98 people faced various injuries and 7 lost their lives to win this battle of sales and bargains.

     

  • "The DryShips Market" – What Comes Next Is Anyone's Guess

    Authored by Mark St.Cyr,

    Since we are in the Thanksgiving lull of the “markets.” I wanted to express something that takes place in my own head around these times. Where I (and believe others) may also share some of the same conflicted feelings as we not only try to give thanks, we simultaneously ponder thoughts to what the future might portend, and how we are going to move with it. For in the game of business as is life: the decision process never rests.

    I used the term “conflicted” for a reason. If you’re anything like me (and I believe we’re all the same, it’s only how we deal with things that makes all the difference) they run the gamut from not just the good or bad, but some may range from the exuberantly spectacular – to the down right terrifying.

    Then last, but certainly not least, buffeted with either a single-minded focus – to outright scatter-brained confusion, notwithstanding the myriad of combinations of some, if not all of them at once.

    Nobody knows what the future may portend. Everything (and I do mean everything) is a best guess with whatever evidence you have at your disposal; a willingness to believe in your gut, and your abilities; and the willingness and fortitude to live with/by your decisions. That sounds simple enough, yes. However, it’s in the application, and the willingness of follow through, which makes all the difference. That’s the hard part.

    So why am I making these observations today one might ask? Well, it all started the other day when I received a note from a colleague questioning my thoughts after they read the following headline. To wit:

    Traders Are Now 100% Sure The Fed Hikes Rates In December

    Their question? “Have you rethought your call about the Fed. in December? It would seem you’re not just in the minority: you are the minority!”

    It’s a fair question, as well as a point. However, with that said: No. (as I’ve previously stated I’m currently 85/15 favoring that they won’t.)

    This isn’t some form of relentless death-grip to be contrarian just for the sake of it. Far from it. Rather, I am becoming even more steadfast in that position based on what I believe or “see” as compelling evidence that the Fed., regardless of what it may want to do, will have their hands tied (once again) by “international developments.” e.g. China.

    Whether or not that turns out to be correct is anyone’s guess. For it is all guessing, no matter who says differently.

    Yet, here is where a “spectacular” bull____ run up in “markets” may turn into a truly “terrifying” off-a-cliff stampede should just one metric change. That metric? The Yuan.

    As I sit here today typing, the Chinese currency is not only still in free fall, it is resting precariously so close to the “cliffs edge” (e.g. 7.00 USD/CNY) if it falls over – it will take all markets with it. Emphasis on all. For if one thinks Aug. of 2015 was scary? Let me use this for analogy:

    Aug. 2015 will look like a kiddie rollercoaster as compared to what the “markets” newest amusement park has constructed in the last few weeks if it all goes awry. And China – not the Fed. – is the one contemplating on whether or not it will open sooner, rather than later. And the clock is ticking.

    Dec. 14th is the Fed’s stated “grand opening.” i.e., (they’re really, really, really going to “do it” this time) Any day in between now and then – is China’s to decide. In other words: whether to preempt or not. Or stated differently: Whatever China decides it will, or won’t do during this period dictates what the Fed. will, or won’t be able to do. Period.

    If you think China is going to sit idly by so the Fed. can just raise rates, to then watch their currency tumble into oblivion forced by circumstances not of their own volition, causing capital outflows of historic proportions, which may, or may not exacerbate civil unrest within its borders, when it has (as in knows precisely the mechanism as to manipulate a possible delay to their own benefit) I believe is fool-hearty at best, willingly blind at worst.

    Since I used the term “amusement” and “rollercoaster” for an analogy, let me use a current chart (or charts) to express precisely what I’m speaking to. For there seems to be quite a lot of P.T. Barnum-ing when it comes to describing these “markets” post U.S. election. And it’s not just the main-stream media, but also every next in rotation fund manager, or Ivory Towered economist who can get to a microphone or camera. And be careful not to get in their way – for you will be trampled upon. So here’s that chart. To wit:

    DryShips™ stock chart from about 2 weeks ago

    DryShips stock chart from about 2 weeks ago

    The problem? Again, to wit:

    Here they are as of the Thursday's close

    Here they are as of the Wednesday’s close

    Much like you have seen the U.S. markets with its most nascent accent, so too was DryShips.

    For all intents and purposes this company was at one time regarded and held as the be-all, tell-all, bellwether (especially for one CNBC™ buy,buy,buy king) for global trade. And when the “markets” displayed a “Trump winning means we’re building again!” Everything jumped in unison to match what the so-called “smart crowd” was touting as more causation, rather than correlation. i.e., “The markets are a forward-looking indicator. So get on the bandwagon quick before it passes you by!”

    As I’ve said many times before: “Beware when everyone’s on the bandwagon – except the band.”

    And it would seem that’s precisely what a lot of people noticed (or at least recognized one mother of a short squeeze for what it was) and thought better of it. Sadly, for those who bought into that whole “causation” premise that was being touted across the financial/business media at large and did the whole “Buy,buy, buy!” thing? You have my sympathies – once again.

    So here we are, and one needs to ponder which way, or view, is the correct one?

    Here’s what I know: Nobody knows. And I mean just that: no – body.

    It’s all a best guess scenario regardless of who says different. All you can do is try to decipher clues from the clutter as best you can, make a decision as to what you believe is the most probable outcome if correct, put yourself in the best place as to if it works in your favor (or if your proved to be right) you can, at the least, benefit from it. Whether benefit means capitalize, or alleviate any potential harm. Then, and most importantly – live with, and by, your decisions.

    You can always reevaluate and adjust going forward.

    I say this because I’ve been there. I’ve made some bad decisions, (actually more like terrible) and some good ones. Many of those decisions were in direct opposition to people (and what seemed to be the world-at-large) who were touted to be smarter, more experienced, better looking (much better actually) more seasoned, better educated, and with far more money or wealth than I ever had. That, and a whole lot more.

    I have stood in the face of all of that saying : “What makes you so right?” And then demanded they either give a cogent argument, or, just shut up and go away. Especially when it has come down to business and/or life decisions. More often than not, the “cogent” part never materialized. My record (I’m proud to say) of right or wrong stands on its own. Yes, warts and all.

    You find out as one moves along in life more things are based on “because I said/think so” rather than anything resembling a real thought process. You need to research, evaluate, then decide for yourself. Then, let the chips fall where they may.

    That isn’t always easy. (Trust me, I know!) But it is the only way.

    So once again, who knows what will happen from here, but I’ll end all this using a video link and song that pretty much sums up my stand today as my battle cry in response to my colleague’s inquiry to what I think may, or may not think happen as it pertains to the Fed.

    I believe it fits today as it did for me back long ago. Where I remember and give thanks during this holiday time. For it wasn’t all that long ago when it wasn’t only myself contemplating going up against a world that said “What makes you think you can? ” as to try and grasp the “brass ring” of life. But also, for few friends of mine that were facing the same issues, at the same time. I know because we discussed them. (you can read a little about that here, and here if you wish)

    The song and video title says it all, “I Stand Alone” And the name of those friends? They’re known as Godsmack.

    What comes next? Again, nobody knows for sure. All I know is the clock is now ticking into December 14th, that is irrefutable. That, and believing the “alarm” doesn’t go off before, and is totally under the Fed’s purview, is the only thing which everyone seems complacent in. Which to my mind – is just plain nuts.

  • Australia Cuts Clinton Foundation Donations To $0

    For months we’ve been told that the Clinton Foundation, and it’s various subsidiaries, were simple, innocent “charitable” organizations, despite the mountain of WikiLeaks evidence suggesting rampant pay-to-play scandals surrounding a uranium deal with Russia and earthquake recovery efforts in Haiti, among others.  Well, if that is, in fact, true perhaps the Clintons could explain why wealthy foreign governments, like Australia and Norway, are suddenly slashing their contributions just as Hillary’s schedule has been freed up to focus exclusively on her charity work.  Surely, these foreign governments weren’t just contributing to the Clinton Foundation in hopes of currying favor with the future President of the United States, were they?  Can’t be, only an useless, “alt-right,” Putin-progranda-pushing, fake news source could possibly draw such a conclusion. 

    Alas, no matter the cause, according to news.com.au, the fact is that after contributing $88mm to the Clinton Foundation, and its various affiliates, over the past 10 years the country of Australia has decided to cease future donations to the foundation just weeks after Hillary’s stunning loss on November 4th.

    And just like that, 2 out of the 3 largest foreign contributors to the Clinton Foundation are gone with Saudia Arabia being the last remaining $10-$25mm donor that hasn’t explicitly cut ties or massively scaled by contributions.

    Clinton Foundation

     

    News.com.au confirmed Australia’s decision to cut future donations to the Clinton Foundation earlier today.  When asked why donations were being cut off now, a Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade official simply said that the Clinton Foundation has “a proven track record” in helping developing countries.  While that sounds nice, doesn’t it seem counterintuitive that these countries would pull their funding just as Hillary has been freed up to spend 100% of her time helping people in  developing countries?

    Australia has finally ceased pouring millions of dollars into accounts linked to Hillary Clinton’s charities.

     

    Which begs the question: Why were we donating to them in the first place?

     

    The federal government confirmed to news.com.au it has not renewed any of its partnerships with the scandal-plagued Clinton Foundation, effectively ending 10 years of taxpayer-funded contributions worth more than $88 million.

     

    News.com.au approached the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade for comment about how much was donated and why the Clinton Foundation was chosen as a recipient.

     

    A DFAT spokeswoman said all funding is used “solely for agreed development projects” and Clinton charities have “a proven track record” in helping developing countries.

    Of course it’s only fitting that Australia’s Prime Minister is none other than Malcolm Turnbull, the former Chairman of Goldman Sachs Australia.  Goldman Sachs only pays for results Madam Secretary. 

    Meanwhile, this new comes just after the Norwegian newspaper Hegnar pointed out earlier this week that Norway is expected to slash their contributions to the Clinton Foundation by 87% now that Hillary has lost the presidency.  After contributing roughly $5mm per year to the Clinton Foundation between 2007 – 2013, the Norwegian government decided to boost their donations to ~$15mm and ~$21mm in 2014 and 2015, respectively.  Ironically, that boost in contributions corresponded with Hillary’s decision to run for President in 2016…but we’re sure it was just a coincidence.  That said, it is fairly interesting that, since Hillary’s loss, Norway, like Australia, also decided to scale back their contributions by 87% in 2017…things that make you go “hmm”.

    After a record contribution from Norway to the disputed Clinton Foundation before the election year, is the contribution now in freefall. Financial newspaper can tell that next year’s contribution is down 83 percent from the peak year of 2015.

     

    For 2016, the planned payments to Clinton Health Access Initiative totaling 35.9 million kroner, writes communications advisor Guri Solberg at the Foreign Ministry, in an email to Finance newspaper.

     

    It is one-fifth of last year’s contribution, when nominating election campaign before the US primaries was in full swing, and the Clinton Foundation came under the spotlight in the US press.

     

    According to Finance newspaper lay the annual Norwegian contribution of NOK 40 million on average from 2007 to 2013. In 2014, the contribution more than tripled, to 129 million. And in 2015 they increased to 174 million.

     

    The money has gone to two of the Foundation’s programs, primarily Clinton Health Access Initiative (CHAI), but also the Clinton Climate Initiative (CCI).

     

    For 2017 it is planned payments to Clinton Health Access Initiative 23 million, Solberg wrote in an email to Finance newspaper. It is further down 36 percent from the current year. By comparison, ran this program 169 million in 2015.

    But, no doubt these are just more “plumes of smoke” for which Hillary has absolutely no explanation.

    Hillary

  • The 2014 Economy Lingers On Under The Hope For Something Different

    Submitted by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

    For the month of July 2014, total durable goods orders exploded higher in a fit of Boeing. The growth in aircraft orders in percentage terms was so large as to be meaningless. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, total durable goods (using the latest benchmarks) went from $236.3 billion that June to $290.8 billion for July. Coming as it did in the middle of 2014 when it had seemed as if everything was on the up, it was just more embarrassment of riches for the US as the “cleanest dirty shirt” just about to be put into the washer.

    Of course, the surge in transportation orders heralded nothing for the actual economy, as by the time those estimates were published (and originally the overall estimate for that month was nearly $300 billion) at the end of August 2014 the economic direction had already taken the opposite route. It was just another in a long line of positive numbers, and truly a big one, that have been consistently taken for recovery. An actual growth period, by contrast, is not one with an occasional big number, but one where those become the norm and therefore small positives are the aberration to be set aside.

    We are seeing something of a repeat if in miniature with durable goods for October 2016. The seasonally-adjusted estimate for September was $228.4 billion, jumping to $239.4 billion in the latest update. Civilian aircraft orders, notoriously volatile, were up almost 140% while military aircraft orders grew by a third. Commentary has been, as you would expect, extremely positive.

    abook-nov-2016-durable-goods-yy

    abook-nov-2016-durable-goods-not-cycle

    Underneath, however, we find the same economy dragging on in place since the aircraft surge in July 2014. Durable goods new orders ex transportation were flat again year-over-year (-0.07%) in October for the second straight month. Likewise durable goods shipments were also practically unchanged (-0.24%). Capital goods, on the other hand, continue to contract. New orders for cap goods minus aircraft and defense orders were down 4% for the second straight month; shipments fell more than 6% in October after declining more than 5% in September.

    abook-nov-2016-durable-goods-cap-goods-yy

    abook-nov-2016-durable-goods-cap-goods-contraction

    This is, again, the same languishing US economy that has been an enormous drag on the global system. There aren’t any meaningfully different changes as indicated by durable goods by which to generate appropriate excitement. Economists and the media have, obviously, been intermittently positive about a great many positive numbers over the past 27 months of slow, uneven contraction. What has seized “market” attention is not what is clear the same but what might be different.

    At this stage of almost relatively euphoric sentiment, up-to-date economic statistics will be less meaningful because “markets” are seeing what they want to see about a future that is no longer captured strictly by more of the same. That means central banks no longer so pasted to just QE or ZIRP, but more willing to try different things. As it pertains to the election, there is a Trump administration that could, in theory, provide “stimulus” and not just in the same wasteful, ARRA manner; changes to taxation, regulation, etc.

    In other words, the future has suddenly become a blank canvas upon which to project all the positives that were once claimed about “stimulus” in the generic sense. People largely still believe that it works; if anything is different especially after 2015 and the start to 2016 it is more that the public now clearly sees at the very least QE and central bank “stimulus” wasn’t of the wrong quantity but at least the wrong kind. If the prior regime was populated by the “wrong” stimulus, then it might be a far better future should the next one find the “right” methods.

    No matter what durable goods, or any economic account for that matter, shows about the current economy it will be difficult to overcome this irrationality, which is now almost purely focused on what could be just over the horizon. Since the figures for the rest of 2016 will be rightly considered as part of the “old” “stimulus” regime that failed, unless they start to indicate a more serious slide I can’t imagine the mainstream will give them much thought at all – except where, like aircraft orders, it might seem to fit the narrative of a pickup.

    The only real question is whether or not what central banks or the Trump people might do different is actually different. A second ARRA is going to produce the same results as the first, which included a great deal of tax cuts. Some have started to suggest that it would amount to a practical “helicopter” of stimulus without explaining why those practical “helicopters” before didn’t work, either.

    abook-nov-2016-durable-goods-rationalizing

    In a bigger sense, however, there does not seem to be any willingness anywhere to actually take account of why the economy for more than two years has been stuck in a state of low growth and even, as the goods economy, steady contraction. It is a curious incuriosity, particularly given the irrational hope for different efforts equaling different results. If “we” don’t really know why the economy fell off rather than surged ahead as ecnomists had predicted after July 2014, then why would there be any reasonable expectation for “different” right at the start?

    After all, the people who will be still running “stimulus” are those who had no idea what was going on then, less idea what that meant for the immediate future, and still today can’t explain what did happen. By that I mean all economists in general, and as far as I can tell that includes those of the forming Trump administration, as well as (for now) those in place at the Federal Reserve who are very likely to press ahead a second time to confirm that they think there isn’t actually anything immediately wrong with the economy to begin with.

    It seems to be a corollary to Einstein’s definition of insanity; keep the intellectual paradigm in place but doing slightly different things and expecting very different results. Durable goods confirm that the same 2015-16 economy still lingers, a fact that none of them thought likely or even possible. It’s nice to contemplate how “new” blood might finally get it right, but is what is being proposed now actually new and different? Can you really claim to have the right answers when it seems clear that you don’t know the questions?

    I suspect we are about to find out, all over again, the hard way.

  • Trump Bypasses Media With Direct YouTube/Twitter Distribution As Feud With Mainstream Outlets Rages

    For the past year and a half the Trump team has played the mainstream media like a fiddle.  During the republican primary, he was granted millions of dollars of free air time as the unwitting mainstream outlets thought they were boosting one of Hillary’s chosen “pied piper” candidates that could be easily defeated in the general election.  Then, after helping to catapult him to the republican nomination the media predictably turned on him in a blatant effort to elect their chosen candidate.  Unfortunately for the mainstream media, none of their plans to destroy Trump came close to working and, in fact, he used their corrupt, biased coverage to rally his supporters which is likely a big reason for his ultimate victory.

    Perhaps no one has summarized Trump’s relationship with the media and establishment institutions better than Michael Moore who famously predicted two weeks before election day that Trump’s election would be the “biggest fuck you ever recorded in human history”:

    “They [working class voters] see that the elites who ruined their lives hate Trump.  Corporate American hates Trump.  Wall Street hates Trump.  The career politicians hate Trump.  The media hates Trump, after they loved him and created him and now hate him.  Thank you, media.  The enemy of my enemy is who I’m voting for on November 8th.”

    But now that the campaigning is finally over, the true panic is setting in for the mainstream media as Trump is threatening to cut off the one thing they have left:  access.

    While Trump’s decision to bypass the media in recent days (starting with the message below posted on YouTube which has received millions of views) by speaking directly with the American electorate through direct distribution outlets like YouTube and Twitter may not seem like a big deal, it has the potential to be quite revolutionary.  After running a campaign that proved that blatant, and frankly insulting, pandering to various minority groups and endless cash hoards weren’t necessarily direct determinants of election success, Trump seems intent upon proving that the mainstream media can be completely bypassed in the modern world…and it is glorious to watch.

     

    Of course, we suspect this is part of the reason for the mainstream media’s recent crusade against “fake news” outlets, of which we’re apparently one.  To the extent they can discredit competitive news sources then they get to maintain their monopoly on ideas and information, and the blatant manipulation of those ideas into their own customized narratives.

    As The Hill points out, Trump’s distaste for the media is starting to sow fear and panic in the mainstreamers.  For evidence of that fact, one has to look no further than the outrage expressed when Trump decided to ditch the press to have a steak dinner with his family.  Where was that same outrage when Hillary ditched the press on 9/11 because of her pneumonia?

    White House reporters are worried about access to Trump, who didn’t allow reporters on his campaign plane and ditched media staking out Trump Tower last week to have dinner with family at New York’s 21 Club.

     

    The president-elect’s frequent threats to the press have added to a sense that the rules for covering this White House might be different.

     

    “Every incoming president has basic, generally agreed upon rules of the road,” said Joe Lockhart, who served as White House press secretary for President Bill Clinton.

     

    “The Trump team has decided they’ll blow up and the road and build a new one. Where it goes from here will be a test of how far the new president and his team want to push things, and the strength and will of the press to push back.”

    As The Hill further notes, Trump has little incentive to go through traditional media outlets.  Not only have they proven time and again to be an extension of the democratic party but with his social media following, Trump’s direct distribution of his message gets just as much coverage as a press conference would.

    But Trump has little incentive to go through traditional media channels, some experts say.

     

    Facebook and Twitter combine to give him one of the most powerful social media presences in the world.

     

    He has former Breitbart executive Stephen Bannon at his side in the White House, giving him a powerful ally in the massively influential world of right-wing news.

     

    And when Trump releases a straight-to-camera video to announce his 100-day agenda — as he did this week, in lieu of a press conference — it elicits the same volume of coverage as a press conference would.

     

    Trump was lavished with billions of dollars worth of free airtime and exposure during the campaign, irrespective of how he chose to engage.

     

    Press advocates are worried that the president-elect appears to be holding all the cards.

    As the head of the advocacy group Free Press points out “over the last 20 to 30 years, each White House has thrown up more obstacles and become more obsessed with controlling their own message, but this is a new apex, and it’s really dangerous.”  While we tend to agree that the disintermediation of the corrupt media may be dangerous for their employees…we suspect the rest of us will be just fine.

  • Europe: Let's Self-Destruct!

    Submitted by Judith Bergman via The Gatestone Institute,

    • A reasonable question that many Europeans might ask would be whether it is not perhaps time to review priorities?
    • Perhaps the time has come to look at whether it remains worth it, in terms of the potential loss of human life, to remain party to the 1961 Convention, which would prohibit a country from stripping a returning ISIS fighter of his citizenship in order to prevent him from entering the country?
    • The terrorist as poor, traumatized victim who needs help seems to be a recurring theme among European politicians. But what about the rights of the poor, traumatized citizens who elected these politicians?

    Roughly 30,000 foreign and European Islamic State fighters from around 100 different countries, who have gone to Syria, Iraq and Libya, could spread across the continent once the terror group is crushed in its Iraqi stronghold, warned Karin von Hippel, director-general of the UK military think tank, Royal United Services Institute, speaking to the Express on October 26:

    "I think once they lose territory in Iraq and Syria and probably Libya… they will likely go back to a more insurgent style operation versus a terrorist group that wants to try and hold onto territory… There has been about 30,000 foreign fighters that have gone in from about 100 countries to join. Not all of them have joined ISIS, some have joined al-Qaeda, Kurds, and other groups, but the vast majority have gone to join ISIS. These people will disperse. Some of them have already been captured or killed but many will disperse and they'll go to European countries…They may not go back to where they came from and that is definitely keeping security forces up at night in many, many countries".

    Perhaps these scenarios are really keeping security forces up at night in many countries. Judging by the continued influx of predominantly young, male migrants of fighting age into Europe, however, one might be excused for thinking that European politicians themselves are not losing any sleep over potential new terrorist attacks.

    According to a report by Radio Sweden, for example:

    "Around 140 Swedes have so far returned after having joined the violent groups in Syria and Iraq. Now several municipalities are preparing to work with those who want to defect. This could include offering practical support to defectors."

    The municipality of Lund has dealt with this issue, and Malmö, Borlänge and Örebro have similar views. As Radio Sweden reports:

    "Lund's conclusion is that defectors from violent extremist groups should be handled like defectors from other environments, such as organized crime. After an investigation of the person's needs, the municipality can help with housing, employment or livelihood."

    According to Sweden's "national coordinator against violent extremism," Christoffer Carlsson:

    "…You need to be able to reintegrate into the job market, you may need a driver's license, debt settlement and shelter. When people leave, they want to leave for something else, but they do not have the resources for it, so it is difficult for them to realize their plan. If they do not receive support, the risk is great that they will be unable to leave the extremist environment, but instead fall back into it."

    Anna Sjöstrand, Lund's municipal coordinator against violent extremism, says that people who have served their penalty should all have support. Last year, the Municipality of Örebro received criticism for offering an internship to a young man who returned after having been in Syria.

    "There may be such criticism, but for me it is difficult to think along those lines. They get the same help as others who seek help from us. We cannot say that because you made a wrong choice, you have no right to come back and live in our society," says Anna Sjöstrand.

    According to Sweden Radio, several of the municipalities stress that people who commit crimes should be sentenced and serve their penalties before they can receive support. According to Amir Rostami, who works with the national coordinator against violent extremism:

    "If you are suspected of a crime, the investigation of the crime always comes first. But as long as there is no suspicion of a crime, then it is in our own interest to help those that come out of this extremist environment. The consequences for society are quite large if you do not."

    So, in Sjöstrand's words, travelling to Syria and Iraq to join ISIS, a bestial Islamic terrorist organization with its sexual enslavement of women and children, rapes, brutal murders of Christians, Yazidis, and other Muslims is just "a wrong choice." You know, similar to embezzling money or getting into a drunken brawl at a bar, just ordinary garden-variety crime, which should not intervene with your "right to come back and live in our society". In other words, it seems to support the standard European idea that the terrorist is the victim, not the innocent people he is out to maim, rape, and kill.

    According to the Swedish view, burning Christians and Yazidis alive, gang-raping and murdering women and children, and other such "wrong choices" should not get into the way of one's "rights." It also seems to ignore the rights of members of the peaceful society who are vulnerable to being attacked. It would be logical to posit that traveling for the express purpose of joining a terrorist organization such as ISIS, which has as its explicit goal the destruction of Western nations such as Sweden, should actually lead to the forfeiture of the "right to come back and live in our society" — especially as those former ISIS fighters evidently do not consider Swedish society "their society."

    Another word that comes to mind is treason. But not for Sweden, such logical moral and political choices. Better to have another go at politically correct policies, doomed to failure, at the expense of the security (and taxpayer money) of law-abiding Swedish citizens, whose rights to live without fear of violent assault, rape and terrorism clearly ceased to matter to Swedish authorities a long time ago.

    This hapless attitude towards ISIS increasingly resembles criminal negligence on the part of Swedish authorities. It was recently reported that Swedish police received a complaint of incitement to racial hatred, after an unnamed Syrian-born 23-year-old used a picture of the ISIS flag as a profile picture on social media. Prosecutor Gisela Sjövall decided not to pursue legal action against the man. The reason, according to Sjövall?

    "IS expresses every kind of disrespect; it is against everyone except those who belong to IS itself. There is the dilemma, it [offends] too big a group… You could say that merely waving a flag of IS in the current situation cannot be considered hate speech. It is not an expression of disrespect towards any [particular] ethnic group. It has been said there could possibly be some form of incitement, that IS urges others to commit criminal acts such as murder, but that is not the case."

    Since ISIS hates absolutely everybody, according to Swedish law they can apparently engage in as much hate speech as their hearts desire. The terrorists, who are vying for a world-dominating caliphate, must be laughing their heads off.

    Sjövall added that because the Nazi swastika is intrinsically linked to inciting anti-Semitism, this contravenes Swedish laws, and that maybe the ISIS flag would be considered as contravening Swedish law in 10 years.

    At the rate that Swedish society is self-destructing, there may not even be much of Sweden to speak of 10 years from now.

    On June 7, 2016, it was reported that British citizen Grace "Khadija" Dare had brought her 4-year-old son, Isa Dare, to live in Sweden, in order to benefit from free health care. In February, the boy was featured in an ISIS video, blowing up four prisoners in a car (pictured above). The boy's father, a jihadist with Swedish citizenship, was killed fighting for ISIS.

    In neighboring Denmark, in March 2015, a Danish MP for the Social Democrats, Trine Bramsen, said about returning ISIS fighters:

    "Some constitute a danger or can become dangerous. Others need help. We have actually seen that many of those who come home have experienced such horrors that they need psychological help".

    The terrorist as poor, traumatized victim who needs help seems to be a recurring theme among European politicians. But what about the rights of the poor, traumatized citizens who elected these politicians?

    Denmark happens to be the European country with the most ISIS fighters returning from Syria, according to a report released in April by the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism in The Hague. The report shows that 50% of the people who left Denmark to fight with ISIS in Syria have returned to Denmark. The UK is second, with 48%, and then come Germany (33%), Sweden (29%), France (27%), and Austria (26%).

    In Denmark, four Syrian ISIS fighters were arrested in April when they returned from Syria.

    The head of the Strategic Institute of the Defense Academy in Denmark, Anja Dalgaard-Nielsen, told a Danish newspaper in April that there are not enough resources to monitor all returning ISIS fighters and thereby ensure their arrest, adding:

    "But then again, not all [ISIS fighters] are identical. Some will come home and be a threat to society, whereas others will return disillusioned. If we treat everyone in the same manner, we risk pushing some of those who are in doubt even further in. If someone returns and it cannot be proven that he has committed crimes and if he, besides that, is disillusioned, then he should get help to get out."

    How do you determine with certainty that someone is "disillusioned," when he could in fact be a ticking bomb waiting to commit terror?

    In Denmark, the authorities decided on a prohibition to travel to Syria to join ISIS. That, however, does not solve the problem of what to do with the returning ISIS fighters. It also does not do much to prevent those potential ISIS fighters who have been frustrated in their efforts to join ISIS, from unleashing their terror on European soil instead — as ISIS has in fact commanded them to do.

    Several countries, including the United Kingdom and Australia, have considered revoking the citizenship of returning ISIS fighters, thereby preventing them from returning. This is certainly feasible in those cases where the person in question has dual citizenship. Political obstacles aside, however, one of the main legal obstacles to countries taking this path is the 1961 UN Convention on the Reduction of Statelessness, which prohibits governments from revoking a person's nationality if it leaves them stateless.

    A reasonable question that many Europeans might ask would be whether it is not perhaps time to review priorities? Perhaps the time has come to look at whether it remains worth it, in terms of the potential loss of human life, to remain party to the 1961 Convention, which would prohibit a country from stripping a returning ISIS fighter of his citizenship in order to prevent him from entering the country?

    Presumably, the European people care more about staying alive than the intricacies of international law. When will European leaders mobilize the political will to act?

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Today’s News 25th November 2016

  • Washington Post Spends Thanksgiving Lamenting Over Fake News and the Russian Scare

    Craig Timberg from Washington Post must be bored this Thanksgiving, spending his time concocting a rich and imaginative tale of fake news websites swaying the billion dollar Clinton campaign from no brainer win to a horrible loss. Here we are, once again, with the faux claims out of Washpo — spreading their own ironic fake news of Russian hacking conspiracies and a furious — and all of a sudden — flood of fake news websites that worked in concert to elect Donald Trump. After all, how could anyone vote for a man who’s credo was Americanism over globalism. Don’t you like cheap prices at Walmart? To date, hard evidence of Russian interference in our elections has yet to materialize — which was at the vanguard of the democrat response to embarrassing Wikileaks revelations that painted the party as wantonly corrupt and spirit cooking depraved. Since the election results shocked the establishment elite, there has been an absolute fervor across the media, led by Obama and his shills, to place the blame for Hillary’s cosmically hilarious defeat on websites that challenge falsehoods and media cuckery . Washpo chimes in on the issue — fueled by a McCarthy era styled list of Russian propaganda websites — provided by shills at some bullshit website called ProporNot.

    The flood of “fake news” this election season got support from a sophisticated Russian propaganda campaign that created and spread misleading articles online with the goal of punishing Democrat Hillary Clinton, helping Republican Donald Trump and undermining faith in American democracy, say independent researchers who tracked the operation. PropOrNot’s monitoring report, which was provided to The Washington Post in advance of its public release, identifies more than 200 websites as routine peddlers of Russian propaganda during the election season, with combined audiences of at least 15 million Americans. On Facebook, PropOrNot estimates that stories planted or promoted by the disinformation campaign were viewed more than 213 million times.  “The way that this propaganda apparatus supported Trump was equivalent to some massive amount of a media buy,” said the executive director of PropOrNot, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid being targeted by Russia’s legions of skilled hackers. “It was like Russia was running a super PAC for Trump’s campaign. .?.?. It worked.”

    On ProporNot’s list of websites to avoid, due to Russian propaganda risk, includes infowars.comnakedcapitalism.comwikileaks.orgzerohedge.com — amongst many others. Propornot even provides their readers with a wonderful chrome browser extension to rout out these evil sites. Instead of reading propaganda, maybe you should read Snopes instead (serious eyeroll action). If you want to continue the discussion, go head on over to their Reddit page — where another 26 people are interested in the complete shit they spew. According to recent Alexa rankings, these butthurt libtards are talking to themselves, literally, except for the moron singular shill from Washpo who wrote this absurd story. fail The quintessential picture of failure

    I can sit here and claim alt-left sites like MotherJones and DailyKos are merely Chinese shills, working in concert with the Democratic Party, in an effort to elect democrats in order to  continue to pursue a brand of globalism that favors the hollowing out of America’s middle class, transferring vast amounts of wealth from here to there. In spite of the fact that everything I just said, as a matter of policy, is 100% accurate — the cucks from Daily Kos had little to do with it.

    The fake news conspiracy theories being promoted by very low and disingenuous news agencies, who’ve proven to be corrupted and co-opted by the Democratic Party, is embarrassing for the 4th estate. Instead of bucking up and dealing with their short comings, the fact that no one believes their shit anymore, they’ve gone apeshit hysterical over the success of Breitbart and other conservative leaning sites — simply branding them as fake and actively working with Appnexus, Facebook and Google to demonetize them.

    Welcome to the Chinafication of the American media.

    Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

  • Paul Craig Roberts Asks "What If Trump Fails?"

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    Did Donald Trump win the election because he is a racist and misogynist and so are the American people?

    No. That’s BS from the Oligarchs’ well-paid whores in the media, “liberal progressive” activist groups, think tanks and universities.

    Did Trump win because he stole the election?

    More BS. The Oligarchs controlled the voting machines. They failed to steal the election, because the people outsmarted them and told the pollsters that they were voting for Hillary. This led to the presstitutes’ propaganda that Hillary was the certain winner, and the Oligarchs believed their own propaganda and didn’t believe it necessary to make certain of their victory.

    Trump won the presidency because he spoke directly and truthfully to the American people, telling them what what they knew to be true and had never before heard from any politician:

    “Our movement is about replacing a failed and corrupt political establishment with a new government controlled by you, the American people. The establishment has trillions of dollars at stake in this election. Those who control the levers of power in Washington and the global special interests they partner with, don’t have your good in mind. The political establishment that is trying to stop us is the same group responsible for our disastrous trade deals, massive illegal immigration and economic and foreign policies that have bled our country dry.

     

    “It’s a global power structure that is responsible for the economic decisions that have robbed our working class, stripped our country of its wealth and put that money into the pockets of a handful of large corporations and political entities. The only thing that can stop this corrupt machine is you. The only force strong enough to save our country is us. The only people brave enough to vote out this corrupt establishment is you, the American people.”

    Trump did not promise voters a bunch of handouts. He didn’t say he would fix this and that. He said that only the American people could fix our broken country and identified himself as an agent of the people.

    The people won the election, but the Oligarchy is still there, as powerful as ever. They have already launched their attack using their whores in the media and liberal progressive groups in attempts to delegitimize Trump with protests, petitions, and endlessly false news reports. George Soros, using the money he made by his attack on the British currency, will pay thousands of protesters to attempt to disrupt the inauguration.

    What about Trump’s government? As Trump discovered, finding appointees who are not part of the Oligarchy’s economic and foreign policy establishment is very difficult.

    Washington is not a home for critics and dissidents. Consider Pat Buchanan, for example. As a White House official in two administrations and a two-time presidential candidate, he is experienced, but Washington has marginalized him.

    Moreover, even if there were a stable of outsiders, they would be eaten alive by the insiders. Trump will have to take insiders. But he has to pick insiders who are to some extent their own person. General Michael Flynn as National Security Adviser is not a bad pick. Flynn is the former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency who advised the Obama regime against employing ISIS against Syria. Flynn has publicly stated on television that the appearance of ISIS in Syria was a “willful decision” of the Obama regime. In other words, ISIS is Washington’s agent, which is why the Obama regime has protected ISIS.

    Trump’s chief of staff (Priebus) and chief strategist (Bannon) are reasonable choices.

    Sessions (Attorney General) and Pompeo (CIA) are disturbing appointments based on their media-created reputations. But in the US where there is no honest media, we don’t know the truth of the reputations. Nevertheless, if Sessions does support torture, he is disqualified as attorney general, because the Constitution prohibits torture. The US cannot afford yet another attorney general who does not support the US Constitution.

    If Pompeo actually is so poorly informed that he opposed the Iran settlement, he is not fit to be CIA director. The CIA itself said that Iran had no nuclear weapons program, and with Russia’s help the matter was resolved. Does Trump want a CIA director who neoconservatives could use to restart the conflict?

    The views of Sessions and Pompeo could be products of the time and not visceral. Regardless, Trump is a strong and willful person. If Trump wants peace with the Russians and Chinese, appointees who get in the way will be fired. So let’s see what a Trump government does before we damn it.

    Presstitute reports of extreme neoconservative John Bolton and former US attorney and NY Mayor Rudy Giuliani being candidates for Secretary of State do not seem credible. If Trump intends to get along with Putin, how can he do that if his Secretary of State wants war with Russia? Trump should find an experienced diplomat who negotiated with the Soviets. Richard Burt, who had a major role in the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, is the sort of person it would make sense to consider. Another sensible candidate would be Jack Matlock, Reagan’s Ambassador to the Soviet Union.

    If Trump wants peace with Russia, the Secretary of State is the important appointment.

    If Trump wants to stop the Oligarchy’s rip off of the American people, the Secretary of the Treasury is the important appointment.

    Under the last three presidents, treasury secretaries have been agents for the banks-too-big-to-fail and for Wall Street. It is now a tradition for the financial gangsters to own the Treasury. It remains to be seen if the tradition is too strong for Trump to break.

    The Oligarchy is trying to discredit the Trump Presidency before it exists. This effort is discrediting liberal and progressive groups by identifying them with nonenforcement of the immigration laws and with homosexual and transgender rights, issues not on the agenda of an electorate whose economic fortunes have been declining and who are tired of 15 years of war that serves only the hegemony agenda of the neoconservatives and the profits and power of the military/security complex.

    According to The Saker, Putin has begun removing the Atlanticist Integrationists, Russia’s Fifth Column, from influence. Let’s see if Trump can remove our fifth columnists—neoconservatives and neoliberal economists—who have sold out the American people and America’s integrity.

    If Trump fails, the only solution is for the American people to become more radical.

  • Dollar Shortage Goes Mainstream: When Will The Fed Confess?

    Last week we posted the report by ADM ISI’s Paul Mylchreest “Dollar Liquidity Threat is Getting Critical and the Fed is M.I.A” which summarized some of the key points in the ongoing, second phase of global dollar shortage, profiled here first in the start of 2015 and validated recently by the BIS. We discussed the bitter (and all too predictable) irony that the Federal Reserve doesn’t “get it”, having recently declared that that liquidity in financial markets was “adequate.”

    It isn’t.

    More than 68,000 hits later, we suspect that many ZH readers are tracking the dollar liquidity crisis (and Fed ignorance) via the negativity in Cross Currency Basis Swaps (CCBS). The 3-month Yen/Dollar CCBS has made a new low of 81.75 bp (swapping Yen into dollars for 3 months costs 81.75bp annualised above covered interest parity) implying that the structural dollar shortage is deteriorating.

    While we’ve been writing about dollar shortages since the GFC, Mylchreest traced the timeline of the current shortage back to the first RMB devaluation in February 2014. He noted that it’s the one thing that even the central banks struggle to control… think Swiss Franc peg (SNB), impact on carry trade and the Yen (BoJ) and the severe weakness that we’re seeing in the RMB (PBoC). Indeed, a “glaring omission” is the failure of the Fed to set-up a dollar swap arrangement with the PBoC.

    Mainstream economists and media are playing catch-up. For example, Carmen Reinhart referenced the “dollar shortage” last month, as did Bloomberg, citing a new report by former Fed economist Zoltan Pozsar which summarizes everything we have said for years.

    In his latest “Global Money Notes” report, “From Exorbitant Privilege to Existential Dilemma”, Credit Suisse’s Zoltan Pozsar argues that “an FOMC determined to normalise interest rates has no choice but to become a Dealer of Last Resort in the FX swap market and provide qunatitative Eurodollar easing (“QEE”) for the rest of the world through its dollar swap lines.”

    According to Pozsar, Basel III and the money market reforms are tightening dollar funding markets causing an “existential trilemma” for the Fed in which “it is impossible to have constraints on bank balance sheets (restraining capital mobility in global money markets), a par exchange rate between onshore dollars and Eurodollars, and a domestically oriented monetary policy mandate. Something will have to give. It’s either the cross-currency basis, the foreign exchange value of the dollar or the hiking cycle. It’s either the Fed’s regulatory and monetary objectives, or control over the Fed’s balance sheet size. It’s either quantities or prices…”

    In terms of CCBS, Pozsar expects “Cross-currency bases will have to go more negative before the Fed steps in, and -150bp on the three-month dollar-yen basis is not an unlikely target”, which would probably lead to a severe bout of Yen weakness from here. The three month dollar-euro basis swap has declined to -43.9bp, closing in on its recent low of -58.8bp during the Deutsche Bank panic nearly two months ago. As an aside, it’s telling that fears about European banks still cause a scramble for dollar liquidity in a deja vu all over again. 

    Pozsar, like Mylchreest, highlights how a dollar funding crisis tightens monetary policy for the rest of the world and could shred the RMB as it means “tighter financial conditions for the rest of the world. In turn, tighter financial conditions point to slow, not faster global growth as foreign banks pass on higher costs to their customers or worse: de-lever their books…If the Fed leaves the intermediation of all of the rest of the world’s marginal dollar needs to American bank’s constrained balance sheets, offshore financial conditions may tighten and the dollar may strengthen to the point where they are no longer consistent with the path envisioned for the funds rate: rounds of RMB devaluation would follow which also won’t help interest rate normalization.”

    So, the rest of the world is left to hang around, waiting to see if the Federal Reserve wakes up to what’s happening to dollar liquidity, and the threat it poses to the global economy and to its own (glacially slow) tightening cycle.

    And now that they may be finally catching on, we would like to see some economists or journalists sit Janet Yellen down and interrogate her about dollar funding markets. Although we doubt that they could extract a confession, it might be entertaining to watch.

  • The Perfect Storm Set To Pop Aussie Apartment Bubble Bringing The Economy Down With It

    Submitted by Guy Manno via Crush the Market

    The Aussie apartment boom that has turned into an epic bubble with record, sky-high prices, is showing all the signs for the perfect storm which will ultimately pop. With the popping of the apartment boom, it will simultaneously bring down the Australian economy, as the apartment market is set to have a sizeable correction in 2017 and 2018.

    A short Look At Australia’s Real Estate Market

    Australian real estate prices have been going up for over 25 years with hardly a pause in between since the late 80’s. The last time real estate prices fell considerably was when Australia last had an official economic recession back in 1987, when interest rates skyrocketed to around 17-18%.

    The chart below show the price growth of real estate, rents and CPI since mid 1987. Initially the price growth of Australia’s real estate market climbed steadily taking 11 years to double in 1988. From there the price growth continued to accelerate with the next 100% increase in price taking 4.5 years to reach.

    An interesting observation on the chart below is that real estate prices have risen by over 700% since 1987, yet rents have risen  just under 300% over the same period. This chart clearly shows that the majority of the price growth was not supported by a fundamental increase in rents to support the higher prices, but rather a massive surge in mortgage debt over the same period drove prices higher.

    Australia

     

    Rising Credit Leads To Booms & Contractions In Credit Lead to Busts

    Professor Steve Keen in the interview shown below highlights his own reasons why he sees a recession coming in 2017 for Australia.

    Steve highlights a number of reasons for his prediction, including deteriorating terms of trade, the ending of the mining investment boom, the Government’s pursuit to cut spending and a reduction in foreign buyers for real estate, among others. However, the most important reason is a deceleration of credit / mortgage debt. Based on Steve’s research and economic models the deceleration of mortgage debt growth is the leading cause for all economic downturns globally including the US, Japan and Europe economic recessions, with a correlation close to -1. What all his research shows is that the deceleration of mortgage debt growth leads to a collapse in real estate prices which then lead to an economic recession in those countries.

    Due to this research, Steve believes Australia will react the same way as other countries based on slowing growth in mortgage debt. Especially, as the conditions have already begun to slow based on the bank’s tightening their standards overall. However, most of the lending restrictions imposed from the banks are for off the plan apartments and existing apartments within most major cities around Australia.

     

    Given Australia was recently ranked number 4 in the world in the UBS global real estate bubble index, see: Australia’s debt addiction fuels record real estate bubble, its easy to see that prices could fall over 20% as lending conditions continue to tighten and their effects take hold.

    Why Are Banks Tightening Lending Conditions With Record Real Estate Prices?

    The simple reason is that the banks do not want to be caught in a credit crunch like they faced back in 2008 and 2009 where they had to have the RBA and the US FED provide considerable financial assistance to keep them afloat.

    Right now the banks can see what everyone else can see if you look at all the data publicly available. Australia will face a major oversupply of apartment dwellings over the next 1 – 3 years from a major ramp up of approvals of apartments. The growth of approvals over the last 7 years which you can see in the chart below, is leading to a big jump in the construction of apartments with a number of them being competed in the next 18 months.

    Australia

     

    Due to the rapid increase in approvals, there has been a massive spike of cranes currently being deployed in Australia, to handle the apartment boom that is currently taking place. As you can see below in the chart Sydney and Melbourne are leading the way in Australia, dwarfing most major cities in the US including New York and LA.

    Australia

     

    With all the current construction for apartments taking place from the buildup of approvals, especially in the last 3 years, Australia is facing a glut of new apartments that are about to be completed in 2017 and 2018.

    Knowing the upcoming glut of apartment completions is about to come available on the market soon, the banks have taken action to protect their capital by providing most of their tightening around new and existing apartments within the CBD’s of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane where most of the construction has taken place.

    Australia

     

    Highest Housing Completions = Biggest Housing Price Fall

    The chart below shows a comparison of house prices in Australia, UK, Spain, US and Ireland with an accompanying housing completions chart.

    The most obvious data from the chart is both Ireland and Spain had the biggest fall in prices during the GFC in 2008 relative to the other countries shown. Those 2 countries also had the largest ramp up of new housing completed from 2000 – 2007.

    Australia

     

    Surging Bond Yields Leads To Higher Mortgage Rates In Australia.

    Back in October US Government 10 yr bond yields were sitting at around 1.55%. Fast forward one month and rates are now sitting at around 2.3%.  A 0.8% increase from the October levels (see chart below). The reason why this is a big deal, is that the US Government bond yields are what are utilized to benchmark most of the different types of retail and commercial loans.

    In Australia the banks also rely heavily on overseas markets and especially the US markets to provide the necessary funding to support their loan book. So as bond yields have skyrocketed in such a short period in the US, it has already led to the banks in Australia lifting rates by between 0.20% – 0.60% on their fixed loans as their funding costs have jumped dramatically.

    With mortgage rates rising and lending conditions being tightened its becoming more difficult for developers to sell their off the plan apartments as investors find it more difficult to access bank lending to finance their purchases, resulting in a slump in demand for off the plan apartments.

    Melbourne Developer Offers $21,000 To Encourage Buyers

    In an attempt to lure buyers to a new off the plan development in Melbourne, a large well known developer is now offering $21,000 to investors in an attempt to sell their $420,000 1 br apartments in Southbank Melbourne. The idea is to match the investor or first time buyer’s 5% deposit of $21,000 to assist them in meeting a 10% deposit.

    The problem that this Melbourne developer and other developers will find, is even with this huge financial incentive, many of the banks in Australia have lifted their minimum deposit requirements for off the plan apartments in major cities to between 15% – 25%.

    Australia

     

    Apartment Bubble Bursting Leading To Australian Recession

    Similar to Professor Steve Keen’s prediction that a recession is coming to Australia in 2017 or early 2018, I also believe that the perfect storm of conditions are developing that will soon pop the apartment bubble that has been taking place in Australia.

    When the correction in apartment prices takes hold, it will have a domino effect on the Australian economy, leading to a contraction in economic activity in Australia. The reason for this is because the real estate industry and related industries now has the largest contribution to GDP at around 28%. (See chart below)

    With record amount of apartment construction taking place over the last few years, fueling a considerable amount of GDP growth, I believe the slowing of the construction industry will start to subtract heavily on GDP growth in 2017 and 2018 leading to Australia’s first recession in over 25 years.

    Australia

  • October Was The Worst Month For Hedge Funds Yet This Year

    Another month, and the pain for the hedge fund industry just keeps getting more intense.

    According to the latest Evestment report, investors redeemed an estimated net $14.2 billion from hedge funds in October. Year-to-date, there has been  a net $77.0 billion removed from the industry.  October’s outflow was the fourth month of redemptions in the last five and seventh in 2016. Due to the  breadth of products experiencing outflows, and the persistence of redemptions outweighing new allocations, it is clear the industry is experiencing a crisis -like wave of negative investor sentiment.

    One almost wonders how much higher the market can keep rising with redemption requests flooding countless back offices. We hope to find out soon.

    Here are the rest of the details on the latest, ongoing, troubles facing the hedge fund industry which, unless something drastically changes soon may end up being a “zero hedge” industry:

    • The breadth of redemption pressure in October was the industry’s largest in 2016 with 61% of reporting funds estimated to have net outflow during the month. The last five months have accounted for the majority of the industry’s redemptions in 2016, a time frame which aligns with investors’ processes for analyzing 2015 results, and taking actions on those decisions.

    • While investors broadly reduced investments in hedge funds in October, the bigger issue was the lack of meaningful new investment. The portion of funds losing greater than 2% or 5% of their AUM from redemptions was only slightly above average in October, however the portion with new allocations greater than 2% or 5% of their AUM were well below average. Essentially, flows in October were poor not necessarily because investors redeemed from the industry, but no one is really allocating with any enthusiasm.

    • One major issue that arose in October, investors appear to be turning their backs on the one segment which had supported industry flows in 2016, managed futures. Performance issues, as anticipated, appear to have swayed investor sentiment toward the group negative. After aggregate performance declines in each of the last three months, and six of the last eight, managed futures funds had their second largest month of outflows in almost two years in October. With performance losses intensifying in October, the outlook for flows for the universe is not positive.
    • Event driven funds continue to be a major source of redemption pressures for the industry. October and YTD flows by size and prior year return illustrate the issue well; too many large funds performed  poorly last year, and they have been the major source of redemption pressures through the year, and into October. Why that occurred is particular to each fund, however the negative sentiment in response has been universal.
    • August marked fifteen months of investors voting in favor of commodity strategies, but after recent losses, investors have begun to head to the exits. Redemptions in October were the second consecutive month of outflows after persistent losses re-emerged in July.
    • If pressed for a bright spot, investors were net allocators to multi-strategy hedge funds in October. Inflows were not large, however it may be a positive sign that the seven months of positive returns prior to October have resulted in positive flows in two of the last three months. July’s nearly $8 billion in redemptions may ultimately prove to be the moment investor sentiment bottomed out toward the strategy.
    • The outlook for macro hedge funds may actually be positive, despite October being the tenth monthly net outflow for the universe within the last year. Eight consecutive months of positive asset-weighted performance, against the backdrop of a rapidly evolving macro economic landscape could be positive for flows. There remains the risk for investors to select managers who most appropriately interpret global influences, as the universe has proven that not all will get it right, and several may get it very wrong.
    • Distressed, the industry’s best performing strategy of 2016, had slightly positive flows in October. Distressed investing, in a hedge fund structure, has endured 22 months of negative investor sentiment prior to October. The interest in private credit funds, whose structures are designed to be specifically aligned to opportunities in distressed or special situation credit markets, have likely had an impact on distressed hedge fund net flows.

    There is a silver lining. Here is evestment’s conclusion:

    Hedge funds are facing difficult times, but the $3 trillion industry is not on the verge of disappearing. The issues of expensive access to increasingly marginalized and potentially replicable returns streams, has and will continue to force change. Savvy institutional investors have more choices, more technology and more influence on their side than ever before. The largest allocators may find it more cost effective to bring resources in-house rather than to pay fees for mediocrity. Others may turn to replication strategies, ETFs, but also increasingly to private markets where there is the perception that value  has more potential to be realized, and manager expertise is more critical in that process. The result for the hedge fund industry, for now, appears to be stagnation at best, and erosion at worst. What may provide hope to the industry is a change which disrupts the homogeny of public markets over the last several years. There are sparks of change emerging over the globe, but whether professional discretion can prevail is not yet evident.

  • Trump, OPEC, & Game Theory

    Submitted by Emad Mostaque via GovernmentsAndMarkets.com,

    “It’s not whether you win or lose, but whether you win!”. Source: Reddit

     

    Nobody has any real idea what President-elect Donald Trump has planned.

    It is quite possible he himself doesn’t know.

    As President-elect we are all forced to take him seriously, but the consequences of taking him literally or not are so wide that most are in a state or confusion.

    However, if we look at the situation more closely there may be method to the madness and some potential hints on where we go from here.

    Candidate Trump was incredibly successful in covering up his weaknesses by, in effect, making the US election a referendum.

    The election was a referendum on the status quo and a vote for Trump was a vote for change, not a vote for the huge range of messages and proposals he put out.

    Indeed, by putting out so many messages and controversial statements he attracted different voters for different reasons. So the blue collar worker may have voted against free trade, but the Pennsylvanian Latino may have voted against health insurance premiums jumping 50%. The extreme proposals echoed his negotiation style as he made a bold first step, then walked it back, also allowing voters to justify ignoring his more odious statements.

    The opponents of Trump preferred to take him at his word, ignoring the real passions his grievance narrative and promise of a better (different) tomorrow stirred up, looking to fight him on topics his supporters found ephemeral.

    This strategic ambiguity in his message changed the game and was a key component of his ability to beat Clinton by going outside the system and making it a game of persuasion over politics. The falsehoods leading to furious fact checking were also reminiscent of the theoretical foundations of non-linear war put in place by the Russians, building on the work of prior autocrats. We can expect this to continue with Trump TV and direct communication through social media.

    The normalization of Candidate Trump has occurred faster than anyone could have imagined as the world is now forced to take him seriously as President-elect.

    The narrative has moved quickly to a positive one of a structural change with decreased regulation, lower taxes and huge infrastructure spending. Leading figures are overlooking extreme statements and focusing on President Trump as a more reasonable, settled and somewhat magnaminous chap after he ‘won’ the negotiation.

    However, little is certain and this presents an interesting situation to look at through the lens of game theory.

    The USA has been the global superpower for decades, much to its own benefit and that of the rest of the world (overall).

    Free trade and globalization trends combined in a cooperative game where participants benefited, although some, like global multinational organisations and owners of capital, gained more than others such as domestic blue collar workers. These trends also helped pull hundreds of millions out of poverty worldwide and trade in a truly positive sum outcome.

    The most recent cooperative equilibrium has been the gospel belief in the power of Central Banking that has dominated markets and investment moves in recent years. This has been the primary narrative around the market and most price moves have been described in relation to Central Bank actions as opposed to more idiosyncratic factors.

    Cooperative equilibria like this are slow to form, but relatively stable.

    Until they aren’t.

    Political factors and a slowing of global trade has been placing increasing pressure on this narrative and the election of Donald Trump into the most powerful position in the world has accelerated this process, with a key flip in the dominant narrative towards fiscalism and stimulus spending over austerity and low rates.

    More importantly, the role of the USA has changed sharply in terms of its likely behaviour under a Trump administration as it will no longer be a cooperative player, but a competitive one.

    This moves us into a different class of competition, such as the familiar games of chicken and the prisoner’s dilemma, where there are drastically different equilibrium conditions.

    Competitive players in competitions where there is a key enforcer and dominant player such as the USA can be handled through a variety of means, but when the dominant player changes its tack to claw back some the shared gains for itself, the game can rapidly change to a zero-sum or even negative-sum one.

    This is where the fear of trade wars comes in and, looking at prior instances, the narrative is likely to rapidly shift across a spectrum of outcomes as each player in the game makes their competitive moves to get “ahead” of the game.

    The “pricing for perfection” of the current narrative is fragile in this environment given the difficulty of implementation and the probability of continued extreme comments from the President-elect and his transition team. Curiously, the likely continued impact of these statements means the US will likely trade in a similar manner to autocratic Emerging Markets, unsurprising when Trump’s executive Presidency has more power than even rulers like President Erdo?an.

    The uncertainty created by the dichotomy between the outcomes of Candidate and President Trump also add an additional wrinkle to this, placing the new normal into a category known as competitive games under uncertainty.

    The most prominent recently example of this is OPEC and Saudi Arabia’s decision not to cut. A number of classical models can be employed to understand OPEC (generally a Stackelberg competition given Saudi’s role is a good starting point), but the presence of US shale changed the equation.

    In this case, a cut, for example, of 1mbpd by Saudi Arabia (say 10% of 10mbpd of production), would be sensible if they expected the price to rise 10%, particularly if everyone else chipped in, something other players are not incentivised to do due to lack of enforceability by OPEC.

    This would cost Saudi Arabia $18bn in forgone production revenue over 12 months if oil prices stayed at $50. If US shale output was elastic as oil prices rose however, with rigs firing up once more and stabilising the price, US shale would make $18bn at the Saudi’s expense.

    This uncertainty changed the game and equilibrium conditions until we headed into the recent Saudi bond issuance and in the next period ahead of a potential Saudi Aramco IPO as this completely changes the payoff structure. OPEC is still an unstable competition, but there are alternative oil balancing approaches that are not.

    Going into the OPEC meeting at the end of the month the optimised structure would have Iran being included once more in the exclusions and an overall cut target announced but flexible country quotas. The negotiating position of Saudi Arabia simply is not very strong given the changing conditions. This may not be enough to push oil prices above $60, but a failure in the deal would push prices well into the $30 range. I remain very bullish for 2017.

    As he has a huge popular mandate having eschewed using the GOP power structure, the rational approach for President Trump is to continue with his classical negotiation tactics in bringing the House, Senate and foreign powers in line with his long-term wishes under an environment of competition and uncertainty to gain an edge.

    The proximate impact of this shift is to increase the probability of market-altering moves such as a Chinese currency free float, with a periodic shifting between multiple unstable equilibria as each side tries to get ahead. We are already seeing this with the Yuan drifting to multi-year lows and JP is very bearish on the potential for a Q1 shock in China as outlined here.

    The world seems a very uncertain place at the moment as the foundations of many of our political, economic and market models shift underneath us.

    However, this may be a feature, not a bug of the new regime and it may be possible to adapt and understand where we might be headed if we build the right structural models in a methodological way. The likely path to a new stable status quo is likely to be a rocky one, with plenty of opportunities and dangers to keep us on our toes.

    Bonus: Learn how to play the game

  • Silver Enters Bear Market As Hedgies Flee

    After tagging $19 the night of Trump's victory, Silver prices have tumbled 15% (the biggest drop since Summer 2013's taper tantrum). However, as large speculators dumped their longs en masse, this week also marked another milestone as Silver drops 24% from its post-Brexit peak (above $21) and entered a bear market once again.

    As the dollar surges, Bloomberg reports that gold and silver holdings in exchange-traded funds are set for the biggest monthly drop in more than three years.

    “Everyone is looking for a December rate hike, and that’s what’s been priced into gold and silver at the moment,” Tom Kendall, head of precious metals strategy at ICBC Standard Bank Plc, said by phone from London.

     

     

    “The dollar remains a key driver.”

    And, just as we have seen in gold futures, hedge fund speculative longs in silver are also decling rapidly…

     

    And this selling pressure has slammed Silver to six-month lows (down 24% from Brexit highs in June)…

     

    But, as Dana Lyons' Tumblr explains, Silver prices are testing a confluence of potential support levels.

    We often get questions about our technical analysis on specific assets or securities, especially as it pertains to potential support or resistance levels on the chart. We don’t post many of those types of charts anymore but we present one today in the chart of the popular iShares Silver Trust, ticker, SLV. The impetus was partially because of the amount of attention on PM’s, but primarily due to a potential inflection point on the chart.

    Everyone asks “when is XYZ going to bottom”? There is no way to ever know for sure. The best thing you can do is identify the most likely points of support in order to put the best odds of success on your side. And the best setups are always when multiple key potential support levels line up in the same vicinity. Such a setup may be present now in the chart of SLV, in our view.

    So what are the potential support levels?:

    • The 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of the November-August Rally ~15.62
    • The 500-Day Simple Moving Average ~15.64
    • The June 7 closing price (15.60) from which SLV gapped up, launching it on its final run to 19.71

    As the chart shows, SLV is testing this level today. In fact, the low of the day was exactly 15.60.

    image

    So will this 15.60 level hold? Obviously nobody knows for sure. At least there are multiple key levels of potential support there, however. That puts decent odds of success with the silver bulls – as well as giving them a level with which to play off of. If SLV remains above there, it can bounce. If it closes below there without an immediate reversal, perhaps there is more downside to come for silver prices.

    How far will SLV bounce if it holds? Obviously, we can’t know that either. There appears to be considerable potential resistance near 16.80 and just above 18.00, if the SLV does bounce. So, that would be about 7-15% of upside – without even breaking the post-summer intermediate-term downtrend. It would take a lot more strength to convince us that the post-2015 uptrend is resuming. So, even holding this level doesn’t mean it’s up, up and away again for silver.

    For now, precious metals fans will have to be satisfied with, “Hi Ho Silver, A-Bounce!”

    *  *  *

    More from Dana Lyons, JLFMI and My401kPro.

  • On A Personal Note…

    With raw newsflow in the financial, political, economic and geopolitical realms hurtling ever faster – scrambling toward some yet unknown climax – facilitated by a world that has never been more interconnected, and where the noise to signal ratio (especially over the past few months courtesy of certain… events) has hit unprecedented levels, sometimes we get so focused on trying to share our own, unique (we hope) vision and take on things, that we lose connection, and direct communication, with the only thing that really matters for this little project: our readers.

    That would be you.

    Without you, dear reader, this website would not exist.

    The truth is that while we always try to represent, interpret and explain events as they happen objectively and in real time (a challenge which at times is literally painful) we may not get everything right or accurate, but we try.

    We try to do as well as we can within the confines of our modest staffing, infrastructure and financial capabilities. Unlike media behemoths and “titans” of industry, many of whom have infinitely more in resources and outside “access”, our growth is only possible if you – dear reader – keep coming back. Incidentally, and contrary to various amusing rumors, Zero Hedge does not, and has never had any financial, political, or any other affiliation or relation to an external entity or organization; no we are not funded by the KGB, no we are not on Trump’s secret payroll, no we have never raised one dollar of outside funding. From day one, all our revenue has been through advertising, and your kind donations.

    Which, simply stated, means that we write what we believe in, even if it is ultimately proven to be dead wrong. And always remember: there is no such thing as “absolute truth.”

    Which is not to say readers should accept everything, or anything, at face value. Quite the contrary: as we have warned since the very start, our main intention, while informing readers, has been to make them think critically – to present a different side to things, even if it is ultimately dead wrong. For pete’s sake, this a blog after all, not some established pillar of the fourth estate with editors, sub-editors, reporters, journalists, crossword puzzle makers, back office, and so forth. 

    This should be nothing new: for those still unfamiliar, here is a brief excerpt from our “full disclosure” policy, which we hope most of you are familiar with:

    The reality is, critical readers should read analytic posts and the rest of Zero Hedge with the blanket assumption that the author is totally “conflicted.”  (Phrased more logically, that the author stands to benefit from being right- imagine that).  This turns the conversation to the content, and away from the author, the author’s biography and the contents of their IRA account / blind trust.  This (the content) is, of course, where the focus should be.  If you think otherwise you might be one of those people who thinks it was a good idea for a news program hosted by Dan Rather, and where viewers spend 66% of the non-commercial time watching his mug, to be in HDTV.  If you still get something out of our writing with the assumption that we are invested in our position and stand to gain personally from you believing us, well, we’ve done our job.  If not, then our being “unconflicted” isn’t going to change the fact that we have a weak argument or poorly reasoned prose.  At least, if you’re not one of the “optics” idiots.

     

    People, you don’t test a safe under ideal conditions for the safe and call it good.  You test it with all the advantages to the burglar.  And then you let the burglar cheat.  If it still remains closed after that, then it’s secure.

    We wrote the above in 2009. In light of the recent unprecedented implosion of trust in the “mainstream”, it has never been more relevant, and we bring it up because in recent weeks the tension between the so called “mainstream” and “alternative” medias has never been greater.  Perhaps that’s a good thing.

    However, no matter how the growing conflict within the fourth estate turns out, we would like you – our reader – to know that we have survived this long, nearly eight years since our modest start in January 2009, in the process clocking in nearly three billion page views, because of your faith in us and the fact that you – for whatever reason – keep coming back.

    And for that, from the entire tiny staff here at Zero Hedge, we thank you.

  • All Aboard The Post-TPP World

    Authored by Pepe Escobar, originally posted op-ed via Strategic-Culture.org,

    A half-hearted near handshake between US President Barack Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin before and after they spoke «for about four minutes», standing up, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Lima, Peru, captured to perfection the melancholic dwindling of the Obama era.

    A whirlwind flashback of the fractious relationship between Obama and «existential threats» Russia and China would include everything from the Washington-sponsored Maidan in Kiev to Obama’s «Assad must go» in Syria, with special mentions to the oil price war, sanctions, the raid on the ruble, extreme demonization of Putin and all things Russian, provocations in the South China Sea – all down to a finishing flourish; the death of the much vaunted Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) treaty, which was reconfirmed at APEC right after the election of Donald Trump.

    It was almost too painful to watch Obama defending his not exactly spectacular legacy at his final international press conference – with, ironically, the backdrop of the South American Pacific coast – just as Chinese President Xi Jinping all but basked in his reiterated geopolitical glow, which he already shares with Putin. As for Trump, though invisible in Lima, he was everywhere.

    The ritual burial, in Peru’s Pacific waters, of the «NATO on trade» arm of the pivot to Asia (first announced in October 2011 by Hillary Clinton) thus offered Xi the perfect platform to plug the merits of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), amply supported by China.

    RCEP is an ambitious idea aiming at becoming the world’s biggest free trade agreement; 46% of global population, with a combined GDP of $17 trillion, and 40% of world trade. RCEP includes the 10 ASEAN nations plus China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand.

    The RCEP idea was born four years ago at an ASEAN summit in Cambodia – and has been through nine rounds of negotiations so far. Curiously, the initial idea came from Japan – as a mechanism to combine the plethora of bilateral deals ASEAN has struck with its partners. But now China is in the lead.

    RCEP is also the fulcrum of the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) – a concept that was introduced at an APEC meeting in Beijing by, who else, China, with the aim of seducing nations whose top trade partner is China away from entertaining TPP notions.

    RCEP – and even FTAAP – are not about a new set of ultra-comprehensive trade rules (concocted by US multinationals), but the extension of existing deals to ASEAN and key nations in Northeast Asia, South Asia and Oceania.

    It didn’t take experienced weathermen to see which way the Pacific winds are now blowing. Peru and Chile are now on board to join RCEP. And Japan – which was negotiating TPP until the very last breath – has now steered the drive towards RCEP.

    The Sultan gets into the action

    Meanwhile, Putin and Xi met once again – with Putin revealing he’s going to China next spring to deepen Russian involvement in the New Silk Roads, a.k.a. One Belt, One Road (OBOR). The ultimate objective is to merge the Chinese-led OBOR with the development of the Russia-led Eurasia Economic Union (EEU).

    That’s the spirit behind 25 intergovernmental agreements in economy, investment and nuclear industry signed by Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in St. Petersburg in early November, as well as the set up of a joint Russia-China Venture Fund.

    In parallel, almost out of blue, and with a single stroke, Turkey President Tayyip Erdogan, on the way back from a visit to Pakistan and Uzbekistan, confirmed what had been all but evident for the past few months; «Why shouldn't Turkey be in the Shanghai Five? I said this to Mr. Putin, to (Kazakh President) Nazarbayev, to those who are in the Shanghai Five now… I think if Turkey were to join the Shanghai Five, it will enable it to act with much greater ease».

    This bombshell of course refers to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which started in 2001 as the Shanghai Five – China, Russia and three Central Asia nations, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (Uzbekistan joined later) – as a security bloc to fight Salafi-jhadism and drug trafficking from Afghanistan.

    Over the years, the SCO has evolved much further – into an Asia integration/cooperation mechanism. India, Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and Mongolia are observers, with India and Pakistan to be admitted as full members arguably by 2017, followed by Iran. Turkey (since 2013) and Belarus are SCO «dialogue partners».

    Wily Erdogan made his SCO opening in conjunction to stressing Turkey did not need to join the EU «at all costs». That’s been more than evident since Erdogan survived the July coup and unleashed a hardcore crackdown that’s been met with horror by Brussels – where the 11-year (so far) negotiations for Turkish accession are all but stalled. And France, the number two EU power after Germany, will inevitably block it further on down the road, whoever is elected President next year.

    Turkey joining the SCO, in the long run, alongside Iran, India and Pakistan, would represent yet another key node of Eurasia integration, as the SCO is progressively interlocked with OBOR, EEU, China’s Silk Road Fund, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and even the BRICS’s New Development Bank (NDB), which will start financing projects for group members and then expand to other nations in the Global South. Moscow and Beijing would welcome Ankara with open arms.

    Whatever the contours of Trump’s China/Asia foreign policy, Eurasian integration will proceed unabated. China is advancing its own simultaneously internal and external pivot, involving the tweaking of financial, fiscal and tax policies to drive consumption in retail, health, travel and sports in parallel to the OBOR drive all across Eurasia, all the way to solidifying an economic superpower.

    TPP – or NATO on trade, the Asian version – is just a scalp in a long and winding road. And on the South China Sea, dialogue is slowly edging out the confrontation fomented throughout the Obama administration.

    At APEC, Xi also met with Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte – and called for China and the Philippines to go for maritime cooperation. A practical result is that Philippine fishermen will continue to have access to Scarborough Shoal, the fertile fishing ground inside the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ) that has been under Chinese control since 2012. Beijing also pledged assistance to Philippine fishermen in alternative industries – such as aquaculture.

    Call it the Trans-South China Sea Partnership.

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