Today’s News 18th October 2016

  • "By Way Of Deception, Thou Shalt Lose Your Empire"

    Authored by The Saker,

     For nothing is hidden that will not be made manifest, nor is anything secret that will not be known and come to light
    Holy Gospel according to Saint Luke (8:17)

     

    There’s an old saying in Tennessee — I know it’s in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can’t get fooled again.
    George W Bush

    In April of 2014 I wrote an article entitled “How the Ukrainian crisis will eventually bring down the AngloZionist Empire” in which I made a list of the similarities between the Soviet Union of the 1980s and Obama’s USA and wrote the following:

    What the AngloZionist are openly and publicly defending in the Ukraine is the polar opposite of what they are supposed to stand for. That is an extremely dangerous thing to do for any regime and the AngloZionist Empire is no exception to that rule.

     

    Empire often crumble when their own people become disillusioned and disgusted with massive discrepancy between what the ruling elites say and what they do. And as a result, it is not so much that the Empire is faced with formidable enemies as it is the fact that nobody is willing to stand up – nevermind die – in defense of it.

    Over two years later, watching the Presidential race between Trump and Hillary I am amazed to see how deep and “in your face” the habit of lying, denying the obvious, deceiving and otherwise misrepresenting has permeated the US political discourse.

    First and foremost, there is the absolutely unabashed way the corporate Ziomedia is bashing Trump without even so much as a pretense of objectivity or truthfulness. Of course, I always knew that the US propaganda machine was lying and that the media was owned by the US deep state, but at least there was this thin veneer or pseudo-objectivity, of having “both sides” heard. Now this is over. When dealing with Trump, we have Orwell’s “Two Minutes of Hate” but spread over 24/7. Not that Trump does not deserve some of it, he sure does, but compared to how real scumbags like the Clintons are treated, the lynching of Trump is, I believe, unprecedented and unique. Why does it matter? Because now the masks have been taken off, the pretenses removed, and what you see is the true face of the corporate media as it always was: hateful, hypocritical and totally corrupted. And since a truly free and independent media is central to a functioning democracy, then the total corruption of the media in the USA is also the proof that this country does not have a functioning democracy.

    Second, there are the completely surreal events happening in Syria: the US betrayal of the agreement signed with Russia, the US threats to attack Syria (in total illegality), the crocodile tears about the humanitarian situation in Aleppo (and the blind eye to Yemen), the mind-blowing hypocrisy of the USA wanting to take the Syrians and the Russians to an international criminal court for war crimes, the now absolutely open support for al-Qaeda (aka al-Nusra, aka Jabhat Fateh al-Sham aka Daesh) and the threats to arm them, the open threats by Admiral Kirby to have Russian aircraft shot down, Russian cities bombed and Russians soldiers come back in body bags – we now see an Administration which has gone completely “mental” over Syria and which does not even know what it is doing. To say that the 1000-4000 US servicemen and contractors currently deployed in Syria are “serving their country” or “defending democracy” or “our way of life” is simply laughable and everybody knows that. But nobody says a word about it. In fact, their presence in Syria is hardly ever mentioned.

    This Kafkaesque slouching towards war with Russia is simply never discussed by any pundit or media outlet. It’s like it’s not happening, but of course it is happening, right before our eyes. The Russian officials speak about this every day, so does the Russian media, it is one of the most discussed topics on TV, and yet in the “land of the brave home of the free” this is a kind of Orwellian “untopic” which, by consensus, has no existence, no reality and no relevance: The Neocons’ crazy policies risk turning the USA into a gigantic pile of radioactive ashes, but the topic which preoccupies everybody is Trump’s potty-mouth about women.

    I don’t know about you, but I see more nobility in the Titanic’s chamber orchestra playing the waltz “Songe d’Automne” as long as the ship could still float then in the pathetic spectacle which the (equally sinking) AngloZionist Empire offers to us today.

    On the external front, the Empire is also doubling down on its lies. Here are a few headlines which were recently seen in 5th columnist newspapers in Russia and their colleagues abroad:

    These are just a few recent examples. Such garbage is published by the pro-western “yellow” press in Russia and by the western corporate media on an almost daily basis.

    Of course, the Neocons have always ruled “by way of deception”, as did the Anglo rulers of the British Empire, but in modern Russia they are now hitting a number of obstacles which greatly complicates their work:

    1) Putin has done an excellent job slowly but surely booting out the worst russophobes from the main Russian TV and radio channels. Of course, some are left, very deliberately (I explain the reason for that in detail here) but they surely don’t control the media like they did in the 1990s.

     

    2) In the age of the Internet, it takes just days to debunk the lies of Uncle Sam, the Neocons or the Russian 5th columnists (for the latest example see here).

     

    3) Russians remember the 1990s and they follow very closely what is happening across the border in the Nazi occupied Ukraine and they realize that what the Ukraine is undergoing today is what Russia had to suffer in the 1990s and would have to live through again if the pro-western forces ever came back to power. In a way, you could say that the Russians have been “vaccinated” against the AngloZionist propaganda.

    I think that while the situation is still much worse in the USA, there are also some very encouraging signs that the lies are beginning to wear off. While there are still millions who believe the Idiot-Box or simply don’t have the energy to think any more, there are also millions who are thoroughly disillusioned, cynical, disgusted and angry at the parasitic elites which rule over them. By and large, the corporate media is deeply distrusted. As for journalists, they are about as respected as lawyers and medical doctors (amazing how these two noble professions got completely discredited by their practitioners in just a few decades!). We can speculate for hours over whether Trump still has a chance to win the next election or not, but I submit that, judging by their panicked actions, the Neocons clearly believe that he might. And that terrifies them. The are clearly afraid that those whom they consider as their dumb serfs might revolt against their rule (as has happened so many times in history).

    I know that there are many out there who do not trust Trump. And I agree with them. I don’t trust him either. However, while I do not “trust” Trump, I admit that it is possible that he really might be a President who would put the interests of the American people first, and the interests of the AngloZionist Empire a distant second. The history of empires is full of situations were one part of the ruling class turned against the other one (SA vs SS, Trotskists vs Stalinists, etc.). There is no reason to dismiss a priori the possibility that there is a schism inside the US deep state, that one part wants to save the Empire as the expense of the USA (the Neocons) and another wants to save the USA at the expense of the Empire (the Trump supporters). Again, I did not say that this is likely, only that I admit that this is possible. And if that is really a possibility, could it not also be possible that the American people would deliberately vote against their own mass media and political elites, just like the British people chose the Brexit in total defiance of the official doxa? That all the Trump-bashing actually could help him get elected?

    Could it be that after losing Russia to their lies, the Neocons will now lose the United States to their apparently incurable propensity to rule by deception?

    For years I used to dismiss the US Presidential elections like a joke, a fraud and an exercise in collective brainwashing. This time around, and for the first time, I think that there is a possibility, however slim, that something of importance might be decided on November 8. The fact that such a possibility even appeared is, by itself, quite remarkable and it is yet another sign of how deep the systemic crisis of the Empire has become. As for the parasites who form the 1% who run this Empire, they are clearly in a panic mode, probably because they are much better informed than most of us of how truly catastrophic the situation really is.

    A Hillary victory will not change any of it. It will only make it much, much more dangerous. With Trump, there is at least a possibility of a gradual, more or less organized withdrawal, a drawdown of sorts, a transition of the USA from being a wannabe World Hegemon into a USA as a major, but “normal”, country. Very much like Russia today, I hope.

    With Hillary we can be sure the Empire will double down, continue to lie to itself and the rest of the planet, and deny it all, making the end inevitably very violent, possibly catastrophic. I would not put it past the “crazies in the basement” to prefer a nuclear holocaust (their favorite topic!) to a liberation of the USA, and the rest of the planet, from their demonic power. It is therefore our duty to prevent them from succeeding from destroying our planet.

  • BaN THe BRoAD…

    H BOMB

  • The Real Humanitarian Crisis Is Not Aleppo

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    Why do we hear only of the “humanitarian crisis in Aleppo” and not of the humanitarian crisis everywhere else in Syria where the evil that rules in Washington has unleashed its ISIL mercenaries to slaughter the Syrian people? Why do we not hear about the humanitarian crisis in Yemen where the US and its Saudi Arabian vassal are slaughtering Yemeni women and children? Why don’t we hear about the humanitarian crisis in Libya where Washington destroyed a country leaving chaos in its place? Why don’t we hear about the humanitarian crisis in Iraq, ongoing now for 13 years, or the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan now 15 years old?

    The answer is that the crisis in Aleppo is the crisis of Washington losing its ISIL mercenaries to the Syrian army and Russian air force. The jihadists sent by Obama and the killer bitch Hillary (“We came, we saw, he died”) to destroy Syria are being themselves destroyed. The Obama regime and the Western presstitutes are trying to save the jihadists by covering them in the blanket of “humanitarian crisis.”

    Such hypocrisy is standard fare for Washington. If the Obama regime gave a hoot about “humanitarian crisis,” the Obama regime would not have orchestrated humanitarian crisis in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and Yemen.

    We are in the middle of a presidential campaign in the US and no one has asked why the US is determined to overthrow a democratically elected Syrian government that is supported by the Syrian people.

    No one has asked why the White House Fool is empowered to remove the president of Syria by siccing US-supplied jihadists, which the presstitutes misrepresent as “moderate rebels,” on the Syrian people.

    Washington, of course, has no acceptable answer to the question, and that is why the question is not asked.

    The answer to the question is that Washington’s strategy for destabilizing Iran and then the Muslim provinces of the Russian Federation, former Soviet central Asia, and the Muslim province of China is to replace stable governments with the chaos of jihadism. Iraq, Libya, and Syria had stable secular societies in which the government’s strong hand was used to prevent sectarian strife between Muslim sects. By overthrowing these secular governments and the current effort to overthrow Assad, Washington released the chaos of terrorism.

    There was no terrorism in the Middle East until Washington brought it there with invasions, bombings, and torture.

    Jihadists such as those that Washington used to overthrow Gaddafi appeared in Syria when the British Parliament and the Russian government blocked Obama’s planned invasion of Syria. As Washington was prevented from directly attacking Syria, Washington used mercenaries. The prostitutes that pretend to be an American media obliged Washington with the propaganda that the jihadist terrorists are Syrian democrats rebelling against “the Assad dictatorship.” This transparant and blatant lie has been repeated so many times that it now is confused with truth.

    Syria has no connection whatsoever to Washington’s original justification for introducing violence into the Middle East. The original justification was 9/11 which was used to invade Afghanistan on the fabrication that the Taliban was shielding Osama bin Laden, the “mastermind,” who at the time was dying of renal failure in a Pakistani hospital. Osama bin Laden was a CIA asset who was used against the Soviets in Afghanistan. He was not the perpetrator of 9/11. And most certainly, neither were the Taliban.

    But the Western presstitutes covered up for the Bush regime’s lie, and the public was deceived with the phrase that we must “defeat them abroad before they attack us at home.”

    Of course, Muslims were not going to attack us at home. If Muslims are a threat, why does the US government keep bringing so many of them here as refugees from Washington’s wars against Muslims?

    9/11 was the neoconservatives “new Pearl Harbor” that they wrote they needed in order to launch their wars in the Middle East. George W. Bush’s first Secretary of the Treasury said that the topic of Bush’s first cabinet meeting was the invasion of Iraq. This was prior to 9/11. In other words, Washington’s wars in the Middle East were planned prior to 9/11.

    The neoconservatives are zionists. By reducing the Middle East to chaos they achieve both of their goals. They remove organized opposition to Israeli expansion, and they create jihadism that can be used to destabilize countries such as Russia, Iran, and China that are in the way of their exercise of unilateral power, which, they believe, the Soviet collapse bequeathed to the “indispensable nation,” the USA.

    Osama bin Laden, the alleged 9/11 mastermind, was dying, not directing a terror war against the US from a cave in Afghanistan. The Taliban were focused on establishing their rule in Afghanistan, not on attacking the West. After blowing up weddings, funerals, and children’s soccer games, Washington moved on to Iraq. There was no sign of Iraqi belligerence toward the US. UN weapons inspectors said that there were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, but Washington did not hear. The whores who comprise the American media helped the Bush regime create the image of a nuclear mushroom cloud going up over America if the US did not invade Iraq.

    Iraq had no nuclear weapons and everyone knew it, but facts were irrelevant. There was an agenda at work, an undeclared agenda. To advance its agenda that the government did not dare reveal, the government used fear. “We have to kill them over there before they kill us over here.”

    So Iraq, a stable, progressive country was reduced to ruins.

    Libya was next. Gaddafi would not join Washington’s Africa Command. Moreover, China was developing the oil fields in eastern Libya. Washington was already troubled by Russia’s presence in the Mediterranean and did not want China there also. So Gaddafi had to go.

    Next Assad was set up with faked evidence that he had used chemical weapons against the rebellion that Washington had started. No one believed the transparent Washington lie, not even the British Parliament. Unable to find support to cover an invasion, Killary the Psychopath sent the jihadists Washington used to destroy Libya to overthrow Assad.

    The Russians, who until this point had been so naive and gullible as to trust Washington, finally figured out that the instability that Washington was brewing was directed at them. The Russian government decided that Syria was their red line and, at the request of the Syrian government, intervened against the Washington-supported jihadists.

    Washington is outraged and is now threatening to commit yet another criminal violation of the Nuremberg Standard with blatant aggression against Syria. Such an ill-advised step would bring Washington into military conflict with Russia and by implication with China. Before Europeans enable Washington to initiate such a dangerous conflict, they had best consider the warning from Sergey Karaganov, a member of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Foreign Policy and Defense council: “Russia will never again fight on its own territory. If NATO initiates an encroachment against a nuclear power like ourselves, NATO will be punished.”

    That the government of the United States is criminally insane should frighten every person on earth. Killary-Hillary is committed to conflict with Russia. Regardless, Obama, the presstitutes, and the Democratic and Republican establishments are doing everything in their power to put into the Oval Office the person who will maximize conflict with Russia.

    The life of the planet is in the hands of the criminally insane. This is the real humanitarian crisis.

    Note: Lt. General Michael Flynn, director of the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency stated in an interview that the creation of ISIS was “a willful Washington decision.” See, for example:
    https://www.rt.com/usa/312050-dia-flynn-islamic-state/ Also: http://russia-insider.com/en/secret-pentagon-report-reveals-us-created-isis-tool-overthrow-syrias-president-assad/ri7364

    The DIA warned that ISIS would result in a Salafist principality over parts of Iraq and Syria. http://www.judicialwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Pg.-291-Pgs.-287-293-JW-v-DOD-and-State-14-812-DOD-Release-2015-04-10-final-version11.pdf The warning went unheeded as the neoconservative Obama regime saw ISIS as a strategic asset to be used against Syria.

  • Ford To Idle Four Factories Due To Slowing Car Demand, Rising Inventories

    Over the weekend we recapped some of the less than impressive moments in the recent US car industry history, which suddenly appears to be bombarded with a
    barrage of bad news: starting with Ford’s disastrous August sales when
    the company admitted “sales have reached a plateau“, continuing to the surge in delinquent subprime auto borrowers hitting nearly a 7 year high as the marginal creditworthy car buyers disappears, then noting the record $4,000 in industry-wide new car incentives
    in September as preventing a plunge in last month’s auto sales, and
    recalling last week’s downgrade of the US auto sector by Goldman which said that the US “cycle has peaked“…

    …one would almost think that a respite from the bad news was in order. One would be wrong.

    As a result of slowing demand and declining US auto sales coupled with growing inventory, Ford Motor is halting one of two plants that builds its top-selling F-150 pickup as it idles four factories this month amid slowing U.S. auto sales.

    As Bloomberg reports, starting this week, Ford is shutting its Louisville, Kentucky, factory building the Escape and Lincoln MKC sport utility vehicles, as well as two plants in Mexico that make the Fusion sedan and Fiesta subcompact, according to an e-mailed statement. Next week, the second-largest U.S. automaker will close the F-150 factory near Kansas City for seven days. And starting Oct. 31, the Louisville plant will be idled for another week.

    The plant closings follow last week’s shutdown of Ford’s Mustang factory in Michigan after sales of the sports car plunged 32% in September.

    Contrary to the popular refrain of a strong economy, US auto sales are slowing as many analysts predict the industry won’t match last year’s record of 17.5 million cars and light trucks. As we reported recently, Ford CEO Mark Fields has said the U.S. auto market has plateaued and that showroom sales are weakening. “We said we expected the overall retail industry to decline in the second half of the year,” Kelli Felker, a Ford spokeswoman, said in the statement. “We also said to expect to see some production adjustments in the second half — this is one of them.

    At least they stick to their word.

    As a race to the bottom begins amogn the carmakers – F-series sales fell 2.6% last month as a pickup price war heated up – consumers will be the winners, able to pick up vehciles at increasingly lower prices. Escape sales dropped 12% in September as Ford faced competitive pressure from the Toyota RAV4 and Honda CR-V. Fusion sales plunged 18% and Fiesta was off 40% as car sales continue to languish with low fuel prices pushing buyers into trucks and SUVs.

    So far trucks, picksups and SUVs have been the silver lining in an other wise dreary automaker landscape, rising as the rest of the lightvehicle segment stagnated, However, should gasoline prices keep rising, that too is about to change in adverse direction.

    Meanwhile, Felker said Ford is trying to match production with demand. Inventories have been swelling on the models the automaker is idling. The company had 93 days supply of F-series pickups, which includes the F-150, at the end of September, up from 83 days a year earlier, according to researcher Autodata Corp.

    According to Bloomberg, Escape inventory grew to 64 days, from 50 a year earlier, while Lincoln MKC climbed to 96 days from 91 last year, according to Autodata. A 60-day supply is considered optimal. Ford had 72 days supply of Fusion sedans at the end of last month, up from 51 a year earlier, and it had enough inventory of the Fiesta to last 77 days, up from 56 in September of 2015, according to Autodata.

    Worst of all, while the rest of the US manufacturing sector has been in secular decline, the auto industry was perhaps the last shining light for battered US manufacturing during the past several years. However, if demand for cars continues to collapse, forcing supply to follow suit, it is only a matter of time before the US manufacturing recession returns with a vengeance, and at the worst possible time: when not even the US service sector can hinder the realization that the US economy is on the verge of contracting.

    Finally, here are some auto-related charts courtesy of Goldman Sachs.

     

  • A Vote For Treason

    Submitted by TL Davis via ChristianMerc blog,

    It has taken several months and a number of email dumps from Wikileaks to finally figure out what this presidential election is all about. There are only two ways to vote, for Donald Trump or for Hillary Clinton. But neither of those are what one would be voting for.

    A vote for Donald Trump is a vote to resist the massive corruption of government, a vote against globalism, against "global warming" or "climate change" theology; it is a vote against media collusion and interference in politics. A vote for Donald Trump is not a vote for the person at all, that is why despite the media onslaught of negative stories about him as a person carries no weight with those who support him, because they don't support him at all, they support what he represents, which is a chance to hold Hillary Clinton responsible for her crimes and therefore all of the crooked politicians of 2012 who coerced votes out of their Republican base only to turn on them the next day.

    Likewise, a vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote for a transformed America, a quasi-police state where the government intervenes in business and forces some out of business while subsidizing other businesses that could not possibly sustain themselves without massive graft and media brainwashing. All of those businesses would be held hostage to a criminal organization originating from the White House. It would be a vote to end forever the concept of individual rights. Hillary Clinton would do no less than continue the work of the Obama Administration to destroy individual rights and nearly half of the nation is in favor of just that. It would be a continued replacement of the voters who value the principles of the founding of this nation with those who have no like expectation. It is a vote for the sudden disappearance of websites like this one.

    The outcome is bigger than that. The next president will likely be a true war-time president. As Vladimir Zhirinovsky claimed a vote for Hillary Clinton would be a vote for war. War with Russia may be inevitable and irrespective of the election as it seems likely that war will begin before the next president can take office. But, there is the question of who would be more likely to effectively fight that war. More than that, would our military leaders be willing to follow the orders of a criminal like Hillary Clinton running a crime organization out of Washington? Would they put their lives in jeopardy knowing the cold-blooded actions she demonstrated in Benghazi? Or, would they likely recognize that their lives meant nothing to the Commander in Chief?

    So many things are now known about the media establishment and the collusion it shares with the Clinton campaign. More things are being found out every day as Wikileaks provides proof of the public perception. The people were right, there is a conspiracy to keep them uninformed and misinformed to protect Democrat politicians from facing scandals. It is clear now that there will never be a Democrat held accountable for their actions and therefore the only time Americans can expect to get anything other than abusive and criminal officeholders is if they elect a Republican.

    This is where we get back to a vote for Donald Trump is nothing other than a vote for accountable leadership. A vote for Hillary Clinton is giving up on that ideal. A vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote to abolish the very principles of elected officials, because if their misdeeds can never be told and their abuses never aired, what have we? That we have so many in this nation willing to vote for Hillary tells us all we need to know about the other side, that they have already given up, that they would rather have a totalitarian system. A vote for Hillary is, in effect an act of treason.

  • Deutsche Bank Pays $38 Million To Settle Silver Manipulation Lawsuit

    2016 is shaping up as the year when countless conspiracy theories will be confirmed to be non-conspiracy fact: from central bank rigging of capital markets, to political rigging of elections, to media rigging of public sentiment, and now, commercial bank rigging of silver.

    In short, tinfoil hat-wearing nutjobs living in their parents basement have been right all along.

    Two weeks ago we reported that “In A Major Victory For Gold And Silver Traders, Manipulation Lawsuit Against Gold-Fixing Banks Ordered To Proceed,” however one bank was exempt: Deutsche Bank. The reason why was known since April, when we first reported that Deutsche Bank had agreed to settle the class action lawsuit filed in July 2014 accusing a consortium of banks of plotting to manipulate gold and silver. Among the charges that Deutsche Bank effectively refused to contest were the following:

    • employment of a manipulative device claims
    • bid-rigging, and unjust enrichment.
    • price fixing and unlawful restraint
    • price manipulation claims
    • aiding and abetting and principal-agent claims.

    Briganti’s affidvait provides some more information on the settlement process:

    The negotiations with Deutsche Bank over the material terms of the Settlement took place over several months starting in December 2015 and continuing until the Deutsche Bank Settlement Agreement was executed on September 6, 2016.

     

    Following initial phone calls with Deutsche Bank’s counsel in December 2015, Lowey and Grant & Eisenhofer engaged in lengthy negotiations with Deutsche Bank’s counsel over the material terms of the settlement, including the amount of the settlement consideration, the scope of the cooperation to be provided by the Deutsche Bank Defendants, the scope of the releases, and the circumstances under which the parties would have the right to terminate the settlement.

     

    During the course of the negotiations, Class Counsel presented what we perceived to be the strengths and weaknesses of the claims and defenses, as well as Deutsche Bank’s litigation exposure.

    In February 2016, we reached an agreement with Deutsche Bank on the amount of the settlement, subject to the negotiation of other material terms of the deal. For example, given that this is the first settlement in the case, it was our view that the cooperation provisions of the deal were extremely important to our ability to maximize the overall recovery for the class against the Non-Settling Defendants. The negotiations as to the scope of the cooperation provisions continued for several months.

     

    On April 13, 2016, counsel for Deutsche Bank and Class Counsel signed a Binding Settlement Term Sheet (“Term Sheet”). The Term Sheet set forth the terms on which the parties agreed, subject to the negotiation of a full Settlement Agreement, to settle Plaintiffs’ claims against Deutsche Bank. At the time the Term Sheet was executed, Class Counsel was well-informed about the legal risks, factual uncertainties, potential damages, and other aspects of the strengths and weaknesses of the claims and defenses asserted.

     

    By letter dated April 13, 2016, the Parties reported to the Court via ECF that the Term Sheet had been executed, and advised the Court that the Term Sheet would be superseded by a formal settlement agreement. ECF No. 116.

     

    The parties negotiated the Deutsche Bank Settlement Agreement over the course of the next several months. The negotiations over the terms of the Deutsche Bank Settlement Agreement included various material terms over which the parties had substantial disagreement, requiring significant give and take on both sides. To that end, drafts of the Deutsche Bank Settlement Agreement went back and forth between the parties, and numerous contested issues were raised, negotiated and resolved, including without limitation, continuing negotiations over the scope of Deutsche Bank’s cooperation (see ¶ 4(A)-(G)), the scope of the releases (see ¶ 12 (A)-(C)), and the circumstances under which the parties could terminate the Settlement (see ¶ 21).

     

    Thus, the Deutsche Bank Settlement Agreement, which was executed (along with the Supplemental Agreement) on September 6, 2016, was the culmination of arm’s-length settlement negotiations that had extended over many months.

     

    The Deutsche Bank Settlement was not the product of collusion. Before any financial numbers were discussed in the settlement negotiations and before any demand or counter-offer was ever made, we were well informed about the legal risks, factual uncertainties, potential damages, and other aspects of the strengths and weaknesses of the claims against Deutsche Bank.

     

    The Deutsche Bank Settlement involves a structure and terms that are common in class action settlements in this District. The consideration that Deutsche Bank has agreed to pay is within the range of that which may be found to be fair, reasonable, and adequate at final approval.

    There was just one thing missing: the settlement amount. This afternoon, that too was revealed when according to court filings, Deutsche Bank had agreed to pay $38 million to settle U.S. litigation over allegations it illegally conspired with other banks to fix silver prices at the expense of investors. The settlement, disclosed in papers filed in Manhattan federal court, concludes one of many recent lawsuits in which investors have accused banks of conspiring to rig the precious metal markets. However, until now there was never any formal closure. Today, that closure cost Deutsche Bank $38 million.

    While the amount is tiny for the German bank, now that it is enshrined in case law, it will unleash dozens of similar class action lawsuits, each tweaked a little, and each demanding tens of millions from the gold and silver rigging banks. As Reuters adds, the settlement had been expected since April, though terms had yet to be disclosed. In court papers, lawyers for the investors say the deal will likely be an “ice breaker” that will serve as a catalyst for other banks to settle.

    Vincent Briganti, a lawyer for the investors, said the deal provides “substantial monetary compensation plus cooperation from Deutsche Bank in the continued prosecution of this important case against the non-settling defendants.”

    As a reminder, in the litigation profiled here most recently, investors claimed Deutsche Bank, HSBC Holdings Plc and Bank of Nova Scotia (ScotiaBank) rigged silver prices through a secret daily meeting called the Silver Fix, and accused UBS AG of exploiting that fix.  The alleged conspiracy started by 1999, suppressed prices on roughly $30 billion of silver and silver financial instruments traded each year, and enabled the banks to pocket returns that could top 100 percent annualized, the investors said.

    Earlier this month, U.S. District Judge Valerie Caproni ruled the investors had sufficiently, “albeit barely,” alleged that Deutsche Bank, HSBC and ScotiaBank violated U.S. antitrust law by conspiring to depress the Silver Fix from 2007 to 2013. At the same time, the judge dismissed UBS from the case, saying there was nothing showing it manipulated prices, even if it benefited from distortions.

    The Judge added that the investors could amend their complaint, including against UBS, and a lawyer for the investors has said they planned to do so.

    So who gets to benefit from the settlement?

    We have reason to believe that there are at least hundreds of geographically dispersed persons and entities that fall within the Settlement Class definition. The Settlement Class includes traders of COMEX Silver Futures contracts, anyone who traded in physical silver based on the Silver Fix, and traders in various silver derivatives.

    The other beneficiary, of course, is the class of investors, people and “conspiracy theorists” who claimed all along that gold and silver were subject to rigging in various forms throughout the years. Well, you were right. However, we wouldn’t hold much hope for getting any substantial monetary rewards. By the time the settlement is done, there will likely be a few hundred dollars per claimant.

    The good news, however, is that this will only unleash many more such lawsuits, now that the seal has been broken.

    As for the remaining two banks in the class action, HSBC and Bank of Nova Scotia, the next pretrial conference in that lawsuit which was greenlighted two weeks ago is scheduled for October 28, 2016. Those who wish to be present should appear at 3:00 p.m. in courtroom 443 of the Thurgood Marshall Courthouse, 40 Foley Square, New York, NY 10007.

    The Vincent Briganti Declaration is below

  • New Voter Fraud Allegations Surface In Chicago As Multiple People "Offered Bribes For Votes"

    Allegations of voter fraud continue to surface all over the country with the latest example coming from Kankakee County, just outside of Chicago.  According to the Kankakee County State’s Attorney’s office and the Kankakee Daily Journal, multiple people reported being offered “bribes for votes” while the county is also investigating what appears to be “fraudulently executed” mail-in ballots.

    The Kankakee County State’s Attorney’s office says it is investigating possible voting fraud after the clerk’s office reported three complaints from people who said they were offered bribes for votes.

     

    In a news release issued late Tuesday afternoon, Jamie Boyd, the state’s attorney, also said “several” vote-by-mail applications seem to have come from people living outside of Kankakee County.

     

    “This unprecedented action was taken in response to reports of individuals from Chicago offering gifts to potential voters in exchange for a vote for Kate Cloonen, Hillary Clinton and others,” Boyd said in the news release. “Our office takes seriously the obligation to protect the rights of citizens to vote for the candidate of their choice, and to do so without undue influence from special interest groups.

     

    “The investigation will also focus on the authenticity of vote by mail requests. Several applications have been filed with the election authority that appear to be fraudulently executed.”

     

    “These reports of voter fraud in Kankakee are incredibly disturbing,” Pankhurst said. “Fair and honest elections are the bedrock of our democracy. It is truly deplorable when people try to corrupt our system in this manner.”

    Polling Station

     

    Of course, democratic officials in the county responded with their usual defense which is to ignore the voter fraud and instead allege voter suppression by republicans looking to disenfranchise low-income and minority voters

    Cloonen has not responded to the allegations, but local Democrats Gary Ciaccio and Mike Smith, both union reps, and former state Rep. Lisa Dugan, released their own statement on Tuesday, alleging that voters have been illegally turned away from the polls.

     

    “We know many legally registered voters have been turned away from voting over the last few days,” they said in that joint statement. “Since early voting for the 2016 General Election began just a few short days ago, there have been numerous reports and eyewitness accounts of harassment and intimidation by local government officials of residents trying to participate in the democratic process of voting.”

    As we’ve noted several times recently, there have been numerous instances of potential voter fraud surface over the past couple of weeks with dead people found to be voting in Colorado and a Democratic get out the vote operation re-registering dead voters in Virginia.

    Isn’t it curious that all the dead voters seem to be pulling for Democrats?

    Below are a couple of other instances of voter fraud that we’ve noted over just the past couple of weeks.

    * * *

    A previous investigation by CBS Denver found that dozens of deceased Colorado citizens continued voting multiple years after their death…even though Colorado Secretary of State Wayne Williams assured CBS that “it is impossible to vote from the grave legally.”  While we’re disturbed by the voter fraud in Colorado, we’re so glad that the legality of the issue could be cleared up so easily. 

    According to CBS, one of the most glaring cases of voter fraud they found was of Sara Sosa who lived in Colorado Springs. Sosa died on Oct. 14, 2009 but CBS found that she continued to cast her ballot in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013.  Likewise, her husband, Miguel, died on Sept. 26, 2008 but voted later in 2009.

    Colorado’s Secretary of State confirmed the cases of voter fraud discovered by CBS, saying:

    “We do believe there were several instances of potential vote fraud that occurred.  It shows there is the potential for fraud.  It’s not a perfect system. There are some gaps.”

     

    Meanwhile, there is also the case of Andrew Spieles, a student at James Madison University, and apparently “Lead Organizer” for HarrisonburgVOTES, who recently confessed to re-registering 19 deceased Virginians to vote in the 2016 election cycle

    While this should come as a surprise to precisely 0 people, Spieles just happens to be Democrat who, accorded to a deleted FaceBook post, apparently recently ran for Caucus Chair of the Virginia Young Democrats. 

    Harrisonburg Votes

     

    Of course, we’re quite certain that the Soro’s machine will keep throwing massive sums of money at defeating voter I.D. laws while arguing that there  is no evidence of voter fraud…facts apparently have no place in a court room.

  • Podesta's Iran Deal Admission Exposes Tragic Results Of AP's 2013 Treachery

    Submitted by Tony Blumer via NewsBusters.org,

    A search at the Associated Press's main national site on "Podesta Iran" (not in quotes) returns no items relating to a Wikileaks-released email exposing how Hillary Clinton 2016 campaign manager John Podesta agreed with a Republican senator in July 2015 that the deal which had been "negotiated" by the Obama administration with Iran would lead to "a nuclear war in the Persian Gulf." (The word "negotiated" is in quotes because, other than releasing hostages it never should have captured or held, Iran appears not to have given up anything.)

    There's a reason beyond the routine journalistic negligence for which AP is so well-known why it has ignored this (excuse the pun) bombshell. The AP's own self-congratulatory actions contributed to the situation Podesta tersely acknowledged.

    In 2013, the AP hid what it knew about the existence of secret discussions between the Obama administration and Iran concerning the latter country's possession and use of nuclear materials. The Obama administration asked a journalist at another outlet and the AP to keep quiet about what they knew — and they did.

    The AP's Julie Pace went on national TV in November 2013 to revel in how the wire service had kept talks between the U.S. and Iran secret for eight months, leading to what was described then as "The Geneva deal."

    Perhaps the journalists and management at the wire service believed that they were serving some kind of higher good. Everybody with an ounce of common sense knew that Iran was (and still is) interested in building and using nuclear weapons. So maybe they believed that an agreement between the U.S., Iran and other countries might prevent that, and, ultimately, prevent a war involving the use of nukes which might otherwise have occurred.

    What's wrong with keeping a secret about something so important? The starry-eyed idealists at AP, if that was indeed their motivation (one shudders when considering other possible motivations), should know now that they were played.

    Twenty months later, Podesta reacted to a harsh July 2015 statement by Senator Mark Kirk of Illinois about the "deal" Iran and the U.S. had just "negotiated" to, in essence, allow Iran to continue doing almost all of what it had been doing while having the U.S. lift economic sanctions which had been in place on that country for decades. A correspondent with Podesta quoted Kirk, and Podesta responded in a single word: "Yup":

    PodestaOnIranDealYup071515

    Podesta's honesty lays bare the sham nature of the Iran "deal."

    The related November 2013 AP story (excerpted at the related NewsBusters post), which appeared at the time Pace went into her bragging routine on Fox News Sunday, reveals the full extent of what the AP knew — and sat on:

    SECRET US-IRAN TALKS SET STAGE FOR NUKE DEAL

     

    The United States and Iran secretly engaged in a series of high-level, face-to-face talks over the past year, in a high-stakes diplomatic gamble by the Obama administration that paved the way for the historic deal sealed early Sunday in Geneva aimed at slowing Tehran's nuclear program, The Associated Press has learned.

     

    The discussions were kept hidden even from America's closest friends, including its negotiating partners and Israel, until two months ago, and that may explain how the nuclear accord appeared to come together so quickly after years of stalemate and fierce hostility between Iran and the West.

     

    … President Barack Obama personally authorized the talks as part of his effort — promised in his first inaugural address — to reach out to a country the State Department designates as the world's most active state sponsor of terrorism.

    The talks were held in the Middle Eastern nation of Oman and elsewhere with only a tight circle of people in the know, the AP learned. Since March, Deputy Secretary of State William Burns and Jake Sullivan, Vice President Joe Biden's top foreign policy adviser, have met at least five times with Iranian officials.

     

    The last four clandestine meetings, held since Iran's reform-minded President Hassan Rouhani was inaugurated in August, produced much of the agreement later formally hammered out in negotiations in Geneva among the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China, Germany and Iran, said three senior administration officials. All spoke only on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss by name the highly sensitive diplomatic effort.

     

    The AP was tipped to the first U.S.-Iranian meeting in March shortly after it occurred, but the White House and State Department disputed elements of the account and the AP could not confirm the meeting. The AP learned of further indications of secret diplomacy in the fall and pressed the White House and other officials further. As the Geneva talks appeared to be reaching their conclusion, senior administration officials confirmed to the AP the details of the extensive outreach.

    As I wrote at the time: "Translation: They didn't report it until the Obama administration said it would be okay to report it."

    That comment and related posts by others elsewhere generated pushback from the AP's Paul Colford, its Vice President and Director of Media Relations, the very next day. Colford's copout is intensely amusing in light of how willing the wire service has been to act on unsubstantiated stories during this presidential election year:

    Contrary to a number of accounts since Sunday, AP did not sit on the story for several months. We aggressively pursued the story throughout that period, trying everything we could to get it to the wire. In fact, some of the information we were tipped to in March turned out to be inaccurate.

     

    The AP routinely seeks and requires more than one source. Stories should be held while attempts are made to reach additional sources for confirmation or elaboration. In rare cases, one source will be sufficient – when material comes from an authoritative figure who provides information so detailed that there is no question of its accuracy.

    The credibility of Colford's post was shredded by Laura Rozen, a reporter for Al-Monitor. Rosen acknowledged in a tweet that "we both had versions of it (the story of talks occurring) independently and were asked not to publish til end of Iran talks":

    LauraRozenTweetReSittingOnUSiran112413

    As I wrote at the time:

    … if it had been covering any administration other than the current one, AP would have reported that it had evidence that such meetings or talks were or had been taking place, and that administration officials (depending on their actual response) either denied their existence, or would not confirm or deny them.

    That would have been no different than taking an unsubstantiated claim by a woman who says she was groped by Donald Trump and asking him to confirm or deny it, and making the fallout from the claim and the denial the story.

    Thus, it should be obvious that the AP's deference to the Obama administration in 2013 in keeping the Iran talks secret had no purpose but to help the administration advance a deeply unpopular agenda. If AP had done its job and indirectly exposed the existence of the talks in the frequently employed manner just described, the blowback would have been intense and bipartisan — and it knows it.

    Meanwhile, as I wrote, the wire service "deliberately kept their readers, listeners, viewers, subscribing news organizations, and the public they claim to serve in the dark … and did so at the request of … the governments involved."

    As seen in its November 2013 story above, the AP congratulated itself for giving its choice to keep the U.S.-Iran talks secret partial credit for "how the nuclear accord appeared to come together so quickly."

    Now that John Podesta has admitted that even people on the left acknowledge the Obama administration's Iran "deal" will lead to "a nuclear war in the Persian Gulf," I expect the AP to take partial credit when Iran begins engaging in nuclear blackmail in the region — and when the bombs fall.

    Heck of a job, guys.

  • Former German Central Banker Reveals "The Real Danger In Finance"

    How can anyone make sense of today’s markets? That was the oft-asked question at last week's IMF meetings in Washington. As we noted at the time, one of the smarest and most honest answers came not from any finance minister or any IMF report but at a presentation privately offered on the sidelines of the IMF meetings by Axel Weber, former head of the Bundesbank, now chairman of UBS. Weber warned that monetary intervention is causing international spillovers and major disturbances in global markets.

    "They (central banks) have taken on massive interventions in the market, you could almost say that central banks are now the central counterparties in many markets. They are the ultimate buyer,"

     

    "So I think the central bankers need to be very careful that they do not continue to produce disturbances in the markets, which they acknowledge – it's a known side effect – but the perception that the underlying impact of monetary policy outweighs the potential side effect in my view is starting to be wrong," he added.

     

    Since the global financial crash of 2008, central bank policy has focused on buying up bonds in large quantities and cutting interest rates to record lows. The Federal Reserve has since looked to unwind its own policy which focused on the Treasury market and the yield curve, but the Bank of Japan and the ECB's large-scale bond-buying programs continue.

     

    "I don't think a single trader can tell you what the appropriate price of an asset he buys is, if you take out all this central bank intervention," Weber warned, adding that it often meant investors were making bad choices with where to put their money.

    However, as The FT's Gillian Tett details, Mr Weber also believes that, while the banking system looks healthier, markets do not.

    The issue that investors need to understand now is that many “markets” are not true market not true, free, markets because of heavy government intervention.

    To Tett's mind, this point needs to be proclaimed with a megaphone. It is evident in government bond markets, where the central banks of Japan, US and eurozone currently hold a third, a fifth and a tenth of the outstanding local government bonds.

    These distorted markets are increasingly hostage to unfathomable political risk. A decade ago, investors thought (or hoped) they could price western assets by analysing underlying economic values with spreadsheets; political risk was only something that emerging market investors worried about.

     

    Now investors holding US, Japanese or European assets need to ponder questions such as: how much further can central banks take quantitative easing? Are the US and UK governments becoming anti-business? Does the rise of Donald Trump, as well as the Britain’s vote to leave the EU, herald new protectionism?

     

    Most investors are not well equipped for an analysis of this kind. They built their careers by crunching numbers, not pondering social science. They now face an unpredictable and unfathomable world.

     

    To put it another way, the real danger in finance is the not one that tends to be discussed: that banks will topple over (as they did in 2008). It is, rather, the threat that investors and investment groups will be wiped out by wild price swings from an unexpected political shock, be that central bank policy swings, trade bans, election results or Brexit.

     

    “Investors have been driven into investments where they have very little capability for dealing with what is on their plate,” Mr Weber observed. “You can nowadays see the entire return that you expect for a year being wiped out for a single day move in the market. And that is an unprecedented situation.”

     

    This is just one banker’s view. But it comes from a man who has been at the centre of the system for decades and is not a natural alarmist. Investors, in other words, would ignore this three-part list at their peril. So would Weber’s former colleagues — at central banks.

     

    read more here…

    Still we are sure this is probably nothing to worry about…

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Today’s News 17th October 2016

  • Hillary's 'War Drums' Confirm Putin's Fears Of A World "Rushing Irreversibly" Towards Nuclear Showdown

    As election day looms in America, it appears the writing that Vladimir Putin drew on the wall just a few short months ago is coming to fruition. Having lost his patience with the constant spewing of anti-Russia propaganda – missing the bigger picture of vicious circle towards muclear confrontation – Putin implored the western media, for the sake of the world, to listen:

    We know year by year what's going to happen, and they know that we know. It's only you that they tell tall tales to, and you buy it, and spread it to the citizens of your countries. You people in turn do not feel a sense of the impending danger – this is what worries me. How do you not understand that the world is being pulled in an irreversible direction? While they pretend that nothing is going on. I don't know how to get through to you anymore.

    In calm tones, not reflective of the angry allegations lobbed at Americans every day of a Russia hell-bent on the election of Trump (for whatever reason they dreamed up of this week), Putin reminded a 'deaf' press corps of what lies ahead and implicitly what happens if and when Americans vote for Hillary.

    And, as Lawrence Murray (via Atlantic Centurion) explains why Donald Trump is the anti-war candidate…

    From the Jordan to the Moskva, war drums beat. The powder keg that set off the first world war was ethno-religious conflict in the lands of the former Ottoman Empire, and in a sense it threatens to do so once more. The Balkan nations were not impressed with the botched settling of the Eastern Question, and a mix of state and non-state actors took matters into their own hands, leading to a globalized conflict. As late as 2006,  the borders of the region were still being contested, when Montenegro voted to break away from Serbia.

    Today, millions of people in the Levant, especially in Syria and Iraq, reject the imposed settlement of their borders. These were drawn by imperialists and zionists nearly a century ago under the Sykes-Picot Agreement to serve the interests of Britain, France, and the overseas Israeli community—and the successors of those diplomats wish to maintain those same borders. The ethno-religious conflict I am  referring to in the former Ottoman Empire is of course the:

    1. Syrian civil war
    2. Iraqi civil war
    3. Turkish-Kurdish conflict
    4. American intervention in Iraq
    5. American intervention in Syria
    6. Iranian intervention in Iraq
    7. Iranian intervention in Syria
    8. Russian intervention in Syria
    9. Hezbollah campaign in Syria
    10. Yemeni civil war
    11. Libyan civil war
    12. NATO intervention in Libya
    13. Egyptian counter-insurgency
    14. War on Terror / global Islamic jihad
    15. US-Russian Middle Eastern proxy war
    16. Arab-Israeli conflict

    Oh. Too many? This is the scope of conflicts that the Leviathan on the Potomac has gotten itself into, and just in the former Ottoman Empire. This does not include the:

    1. South China Sea territorial dispute
    2. Korean civil war
    3. War in Afghanistan
    4. Russian-Ukrainian border war
    5. Combat support in various African countries
    6. Occupation of Germany

    In November, Americans will roll to the polls on their motorized scooters to elect the next Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the United States.

    Hillary Clinton has a track record of following neoconservative foreign policy imperatives that favor “exporting” democracy and disrupting the enemies of Israel, such as Baathist (Arab nationalist) Iraq and Syria. Or as Republicans put it, “muh benghazi.” The Alt-Right cleverly notes that combined with America’s post-1965 immigration laws, this is a policy of “Invade the World, Invite the World.” If not for the dual policies of bombing Muslims and importing Muslims, the United States would be a radically different society. Instead of a bomb-sniffing watchdog state, we might have a night watchman state (like we used to). As late as 2000, some airline pilots would let you into the cockpit, especially if you had a small child with you who wanted to see it. Now even lingering at the front of the plane for to long means you’re a terrorist.

    But it’s more than just a cultural change and anxiety about being in crowded, target-rich, or sensitive areas. The United States is required to spend billions of dollars a year now in order to prevent the next 9/11, which could have easily been prevented by not allowing immigration from Saudi Arabia, a country which practices shariah law, polygamy, and beheading of religious dissidents. Indeed, the surveillance and counterterrorism operations the United States is required to carry out against its citizens in the name of security as a result of mass immigration from outside of Europe put the state police of bygone regimes to shame. East Germany would be envious.

    The other option is Donald Trump.

    Donald Trump has never played a role in the shattering of nations or in conducting airstrikes against embittered medieval tribespeople. He has never been blamed for the death of an American ambassador or his staff. He has never chuckled about killing Muammar Gaddafi, whose autocratic and idiosyncratic rule of Libya raised living standards, generated oil wealth for his people, and prevented Islamist terror movements from spreading in a region where that is a problem. He has spoken favorably of Saddam Hussein, who likewise while imperfect did not preside over a millennarian civil war between two strains of jihadists and nationalist-secularists. There is something to be said for leaving these parts of the world to their own devices, even if it means they don’t get an American or parliamentary democracy. They can live without it. In fact, they literally live without it. What is happening right now in Syria and Iraq and Libya and Afghanistan and other hotspots is not life. It is death, and it is being funded with your tax dollars. By a Democratic administration that is fighting to preserve disputed borders in foreign countries while neglecting our own.

    Obama and Clinton get away with warmongering because they aren’t George W. Bush. But short of committing tens of thousands of ground troops, they are doing almost the same thing he did in Iraq and Afghanistan. Perhaps worse because of the low human cost of the war to the Western side, we could potentially intervene in this conflict for, well, as long as the drone program is funded and fuel is loaded into our planes. There is no attrition. Just us turning various cities into replicas of Guernica. No bodies are sent home; no one cares.

    Trump wants to end war in Syria and Iraq by working with the Russians and Iranians to defeat the number one enemy of international peace, which is ISIS. He also wants a moratorium on the importation of violent overseas ethnoreligious conflict into the United States.

    Clinton wants to continue fighting the de jure Assad government, which benefits ISIS vis-a-vis just as much as it benefits the “moderate” rebels and non-ISIS jihadist groups. At the same time, she also wants to make the United States incrementally more Muslim each year. That’s how immigration works—less and more each year. Why recreate Syria in Seattle? Iraq in Idaho?

    Trump wants to end the wars abroad and at home. He wants to put America First. What does Clinton want to put first?

  • Tinfoil: It's Getting Harder To Leave Home Without It

    Authored by Mark St.Cyr,

    It used to be when someone mentioned the term “tinfoil cap wearing,” “conspiracy theorist,” “lunatic fringe,” etc, etc., it was usually in reference to a subset of individuals or groups that resided in some dark corners or basements believing “mind control” went far beyond just propaganda. i.e., It was actually the government (or aliens!) sending out undetectable frequencies directly into the minds of the masses. And, the only protection was: tinfoil. With it’s best use fashioned and adorned as a cap. It’s been a running joke (as it should be) longer than most can remember.

    Yet, with all that said, it’s getting harder to be out amongst the public as an informed person and not feel as if there isn’t something to all the “lunacy.” For if you speak to nearly anyone these days be it family, friends, coworkers, or the occasional overheard conversations of strangers. You can’t help wondering: how can so many be so clueless? Or worse: how is it they can argue some form of righteous stance about this, or that, all the while they are “knee-deep” themselves in the same (if not worse) muck they say is being slung from the other side?

    It’s moved so far beyond ridiculous I’m now starting to believe there is something in the water. However, is it in the tap or, is it in the bottled? For the people able to afford bottled, as opposed to plain tap, seem to have some of the more “crazy” arguments I’ve heard in quite some time. And that’s saying something. It’s the only thing that explains it.

    (Note: “informed” would include you dear reader, for the mere act of you reading this, whether you agree or disagree, proves ipso facto that you are searching out information as to draw your own conclusions. And to that – I tip my hat too you.)

    So now that you’ve read this far, let’s both don a silvery chapeau and contemplate what might be one of the scariest propositions (if found true) that could change everything (and I do mean everything) as we know it. e.g., “WWIII”

    (C’mon, what’s a good conspiracy theory without an apocalyptic conclusion as part of the deal? For if you’re going to go there – just go there is all I’ll say, yes?)

    In the U.S. we are currently in the final stages (within 30 days) of the election process where we’ll vote for the next president. And in you were an alien just landed from some distant galaxy you would be hard pressed to not assume Vladimir Putin wasn’t running on the ballot in third-party status. For he’s been mentioned and garnered more free electoral press as it pertains to the campaign than the actual third-party candidate has received – including ad buys. Hence, this is where things get down right loony.

    Say what you want about “Russian hackers” infiltrating private email servers and the like. Proving that it’s actually state sponsored, which state (i.e., Russia, China, N.Korea, etc.) is quite another. For it can also be just the garden variety hack (i.e., basement dwelling protesters) or, it could be the sophisticated type, i.e., Anonymous, etc. It’s a guessing game based on circumstantial evidence sprinkled with very suspect actual at best.

    However, you know what can’t be denied and is pure evidence based for all the world to see, on purpose?

    Military troop movements, missile deployments, a calling home to all diplomats and their children, multi-national communist allied war gaming (e.g. Russian and Chinese navy) on the open sea, all while instructing the Russian population to take part in “live nuclear bombing drills” for the first time since the cold war ended.

    That’s what’s been taking place (and a whole lot more) over the last 30 days in the real world. Have you heard, read, or seen anything about it in the main-stream media?

    Sorry, trick question. Of course not. Have you heard about the Kardashian’s latest escapades? Again, trick question – you can’t turn on a TV, radio, or go to the grocery store without seeing another version of the same headline. They’re everywhere.

    Yet, here is the real question: Can you think of another time when something even resembling the above as it pertains to war, or even the drums of it wouldn’t be the only thing reported this close to an election previously? The silence is so deafening it boggles the mind. For along with this “radio silence” comes forth that other silence – nobody’s taking about it because: nobody knows.

    As for proof? As I iterated earlier: just ask someone about it, then watch for the blank stare.

    So, as I like to do, let’s not think “outside-the-box” and limit ourselves. Let’s delve more into what I like to call “there is no box” hypothesizing. Where we can let our conspiracy theorist inner person loose and argue assertions and plausibilities without constraints. For remember: facts sometimes prove out that far more lunacy exists in the real world – than the fictional. It’s in the inability to contemplate or, to ” the-getting-there” that blindside most from ever seeing the possibilities that exist. So let’s proceed. And don’t forget your hat….

    What if the U.S. drops the “nuclear” option in December? No, not some ICBM. But rather: Raises interest rates.

    And not by .25 basis points, but rather, say 50. e.g., 1/2 of 1%.

    I know, this is crazy talk (but that’s why we have the tinfoil, no?) But let’s play this through taking the “crazy” view as a possibility. Can it make sense of what we already deem as “crazy?” Sometimes, yes, sometimes no. But you’ll never know unless you try.

    Back in May of this year I penned an article titled: “Was The Fed Just Given The Launch Codes?” In it I made some observations as it pertained to “the elites” or “Ivory Tower” type thinking. It was a follow-up from a previous in October where I hypothesized another perilous possibility: “Weaponizing The Fed.

    With all that was happening at that time, along with what has happened since, it’s getting harder to push these ideas away, more than it is to embrace the possibilities. And that, in-and-of itself, is causing me more concern with each passing day. Especially when combined with the realities taking place in real-time today.

    So what type of “conspiracy” laden scenario can I hypothesize using what we know to be factual, and, what we can conceptualize happening based on what has happened previous? Warning: it might be time to check for any possible tears, or cracks in your metallic helmet, and repair or reapply as much “tinfoil” as one feels appropriate. With that said, let’s continue.

    Have you noticed as of late that the more “serious” the Fed. is intoning hawkish tones – the more its Chair Janet Yellen is suggesting monetary lunacy? e.g., “Yellen Says Fed Buying Stocks Is “A Good Thing To Think About

    Square this circle if you can: In the U.S. even the idea of negative rates alone is almost too much to handle or contemplate based on capitalistic principles and fundamentals. The backlash and furor alone in just the discussion all but holds it at bay. The finger-pointing at the Fed. currently, along with their trying to defend against “too easy for too long” critics has pushed many Fed. members (even those considered to be doves) to intone hawkish language whenever possible in public as of late to keep the pitchforks and torches at bay.

    And yet – the Fed. Chair is publicly affirming (remember: this is only 2 weeks ago) that the idea of openly, and directly buying stocks is something that should be contemplated? Something here just doesn’t add up. Even when using Princeton math. Unless…

    What if we were to hypothesize that for whatever the reason, December would be the ultimate time to send the financial world into a tailspin for a desired (“desired” by globalists, or elitists that is) outcome? Many (“many” being common sensical thinkers) would never entertain the idea because of the election in Nov. However, what if there was precedent of, and for, navigating turmoil and instituting the unthinkable precisely at that time? Hint: The interval between the actual election and the swearing-in. e.g., Nov. – Jan.)

    One of the most curious things I remember about the financial crisis was the way, then, outgoing president Bush was seemingly instantaneously replaced with the then “president-elect” Obama.

    Never before to my recollection had I ever seen a “president-elect” giving speeches or press conferences (especially in times of crisis when there was a live sitting president) equipped with podiums, lecterns, and more in precisely the same configuration, backdrops, and all including presidential seal. You would have thought Obama took over in Nov. rather than January if you didn’t look closely to read the term “president-elect” in the same space reserved for “president” on the presidential seal. Nobody seems to remember that but me when I ask. Yet, if you look back to press clippings from that time, or videos with today’s eye – you can’t miss it.

    So now let’s really get into the weeds: What if “elites” or whatever term you want to use for people who think they know what is best for the rest of society, rather, than leaving that up to society itself, and have concluded no matter who wins the election, this whole charade of market stability is about ready to collapse upon itself like a house of cards at any time?

    And any time is weeks, or months, not years. What would one do? Wait, and try to deal with the fallout in real-time? Or, bring it down of your own volition and have it fall in some type of controlled demolition experiment of one’s choosing?

    I think when it comes to “elites” they believe they can control anything if they are the one’s that initiate it. So, I would go with the latter. And if so, what does that look like? Well, consider this….

    Let’s say the candidate of choice for the “elites” wins. How could you employ the triggers with near immediacy that would devastate, or wreak the most havoc on an adversary lest dropping real ordinance? Hint: A release via the monetary equivalent by raising interest rates causing a market meltdown, but in-particular, causing a capital outflow of inordinate proportions out of your adversary, seeking refuge in not only the $dollar, but $dollar denominated securities, and more.

    That is – while the $dollar is, still remains/considered “safe haven” status. It doesn’t sound all that crazy when put in those terms does it?

    During the most assuredly ensuing period of absolute financial turmoil you (once again e.g. Paulson and Bernanke-esque) convince both the congress, as well as the business community that “Radical action is needed now! Or we all go down in flames.” All the while the current president (much like Bush) steps off to the sidelines where the new (much like Obama did) “president-elect” calls for much of the same, echoing the most assuredly chants of fire and brimstone if “Decisive action is implemented immediately!” No matter how radical or unnerving it may be to commonsense at the time.

    You could have a scenario where the wind (as little as there would be except for the bloviating of politicians) of capital flight would be in the desired direction of your choosing, along with the ability to once again push through laws, or just allow for further take over, or more intervention by the Fed. or others in ways never dreamed possible before in a capitalistic society.

    All the ground work has already been plowed. Both in some precedents, as well as open rhetoric of the possibilities of going where no modern society has gone before with its capital markets. (Think current Fed. communications)

    As for your adversaries? You’d be doing this before they had real-time to test newly formed alliances of monetary trading or swaps in crisis mode. And during a crisis? Money seeks known safety first – not speculative. And the U.S. $dollar, along with its equity markets, as perverted as they are, are still the cleanest shirt in a dirty laundry.

    The absolute havoc, devastation, financial destruction, and a whole lot more is almost near unconscionable to even contemplate. Yet, what you have to always remember is this: Elites, or those controlling the power, never think about the destruction happening to them. They always think in terms of “It won’t be us who has to live with our decisions. That’s for others to deal with.”

    And if there is any doubt you may have to that last thought. Let me remind you of another story you may not have heard about, and the resulting aftermath when “elites” think “good ideas” that the people must live with and beside – not them.

    Welcome to Paris “Scenes From The Apocalypse” circa this month.

    A lot of people there once thought “They would never allow that to happen!” Maybe they would like to re-think that again, no?

    No tinfoil required.

  • Western Hypocrisy, And Why It Makes The World A Dangerous Place

    Submitted by Michael Jabara Carley via Strategic-Culture.org,

    The West has always been a great trembling hive of hypocrisy, portraying itself as liberal, progressive, civilised and democratic. You know the descriptors; the list is very long. Take the United States, for example, it is the «shining house upon the hill»: just, altruistic, democratic, with a «mission to extend individual liberties throughout the world».

    «Our cause has been the cause of all mankind», Lyndon Johnson declared during the 1964 presidential election campaign. To reinforce his argument Johnson cited President Woodrow Wilson, who had similar things to say about American virtue. Nothing has changed: listen to Barack Obama talk about the altruism of the United States. ‘We are the «exceptional nation»,’ he often says.

    These western and especially US virtues are mobilised to justify policies, wars, covert activities which are not virtuous at all. Let’s start with Wilson. He is best known for the «Fourteen Points», national self-determination, «democracy», open agreements, and so on. «Do as I say, not as I do,» Wilson might have cautioned in the backroom. He did not, for example, anticipate «self-determination» for the Philippines, a US colony, or closer to home, for American «Negros».

    You see, Wilson was a segregationist and supporter of Jim Crow and the Ku Klux Klan. We need the KKK, Wilson believed, to keep «colored folks» in line, especially those who came back from France having served in the US armed forces. They might think they were entitled to the same rights as white people. As American blacks were to be subject to Jim Crow, so Bolsheviks in Russia were to be subjected to Entente military intervention to put an end to their socialist revolution.

    Then of course there was World War II. It is during this war that the United States and Great Britain got into the habit of destroying cities and civilian infrastructure, and killing large numbers of civilians. It is true that Nazi Germany set the precedent for targeting civilians, and few people questioned the destruction of German cities and the mass killing of civilians in Cologne, Hamburg, Dresden, Berlin and other places.

    The «krauts» had it coming. So did the Japanese, most of their cities were burned to the ground. Hiroshima and Nagasaki were destroyed with the first atomic bombs. «Military targets,» said accidental President Harry Truman, «we had to do it to save the lives of American soldiers». He lied. The American government knew very well that Japan was beaten and ready to surrender. The United States wanted to intimidate Iosif Stalin, with atomic bombs the USSR did not yet have. Did the Americans truly believe they could intimidate Marshal Stalin?

    The end of World War II led to the resumption of the Cold War, Act II (Act I having started in 1917). With Great Britain reduced to the status of a vassal state, the United States took the lead in defending «free» peoples against the menace of communism. Unfortunately, there was a chasm between the image and the reality. The US government unleashed the CIA to buy politicians and elections and overthrow governments it did not like. Iran, Guatemala, Cuba were early examples. That was the fate reserved for Vietnam too, except there, Washington bit off more than it could chew.

    The United States sabotaged Vietnamese elections in 1956 because, according to US president Dwight Eisenhower, the communist leader Ho Chi Minh would have won 80% of the vote. Not much respect for democracy there: it turns out that the United States was only comfortable with «democracy» when their clients won. When they couldn’t win, elections were rigged, bought with CIA money, or sabotaged. «Leftists, communists, eccentrics, not wanted here,» was a sign America might have hung out on the doors of its embassies worldwide.

    In Vietnam the United States hijacked the south and ran it through puppets. A terrible war ensued: the World War II pattern of targeting cities and civilians was repeated. The US government declared that it was not bombing North Vietnamese cities, but Toronto Star correspondent Michael Maclear drove up from the Vietnamese Demilitarized Zone to Hanoi and found just about every city and town along the way had been flattened or badly damaged by American bombing. Civilians were fair game, US claims to the contrary notwithstanding. Estimates range from 2 to 6 civilians killed for every Vietnamese combatant. These figures are certainly on the low side given US carpet bombing and use of napalm and chemical defoliants.

    It is true that most of the Vietnamese people were united with their armed forces in resisting US aggression. So the distinction between civilian and soldier was necessarily blurred, much to the frustration of US authorities. Then there was the My Lai massacre in March 1968 when nearly five hundred men, women and children were gunned down by American soldiers. The massacre made the pages of Life magazine, not good publicity for the American war of aggression in Southeast Asia.

    The United States lost that war because of the remarkable resistance of the Vietnamese people, though they paid a high price for driving out the American invader. Defeat however did not long chasten US authorities. In 1973 the CIA overthrew the democratically elected Chilean government of Salvador Allende. A neo-fascist took his place, which was fine with Washington. In the 1980s the United States backed Islamist fundamentalists in Afghanistan against the USSR. «They’re sons of bitches», Americans might have agreed in a rare moment of candour, but «they are our sons of bitches».

    The point is that the American claims of altruism and promotion of democracy were bogus. As long as the USSR existed, the United States could not run completely amuck although the US rampage in Southeast Asia was bad enough. After the collapse and dismemberment of the USSR, the United States felt the last restraints on its power fall away. NATO was expanded up to Russia’s western frontiers. Yugoslavia was destroyed and dismembered without any reference to international law. The United States and its NATO vassals backed Islamist terrorists and gangsters in Bosnia and Kosovo, following the Afghan pattern. «They’re our terrorists and gangsters,» the Americans might have said, «and therefore we’re alright». Serbia was bombed, its infrastructure destroyed, civilians were killed. Not even crocodile tears were shed in the west over the dead Serbian civilians.

    Since the destruction of Yugoslavia, the list of US and western covert or overt wars of aggression is long. Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Ukraine, Syria, Yemen have all been destroyed or are being destroyed by the United States and its NATO or regional vassals in the name of «responsibility to protect» (R2P) and «democracy» proselytization. The west’s allies are Wahhabi terrorists (again), Daesh, Nusra, Al-Qaeda and various iterations of them, as well as fascists in the Ukraine. It is an extraordinary American rogues’ gallery, like a long police line-up of felons. But «not to worry», the Americans would no doubt repeat, «they’re our Islamists and our fascists, and working for us, which makes everything alright».

    Everywhere the United States leaves its footprints, along with those of the British and French depending on location, you will find ruins and victims. Iraq and Libya are in chaos and infested with Al-Qaeda terrorists. War drags on in Afghanistan after fifteen years. In the Ukraine the US-backed fascist coup d’état has only partially succeeded and a crisis there could irrupt at any time. In Yemen a Saudi invasion has butted into formidable resistance.

    In Syria the US and Anglo-French-led attempt to overthrow the Syrian government has failed. Not only did the United States run up against a formidable Syrian resistance inspired by Syrian president Bashar el-Assad, but it has run up against the Russian Federation, Iran, and Hezbollah. They are allied with the Syrian government against the invasion of US and western supported Islamist mercenaries, armed, financed, trained, and sheltered by Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan, and Apartheid Israel.

    Russia has played the principal role in checking the US-led war of aggression against Syria. Of course, President Vladimir Putin has tried to finesse the United States into abandoning its terrorist allies and joining a coalition to destroy the Wahhabi invaders. As I write these lines, the Russian effort has failed; as well it might, since the United States is addicted to subversion and wars of aggression as a drug user is addicted to narcotics. But Russia had to try, and I suppose, will continue to try, to persuade the United States to go cold turkey.

    In the meantime its French and British vassals accuse Russia and Syria of war crimes, fulminate about the surrounded, victimized Wahhabi terrorists in Aleppo. The very same who have made films showing their decapitation of Syrian POWs and officials, Christians and any others who don’t embrace their practice of Islam. Further forms of cruelty include execution by drowning or being burned alive in cages, or crushed by tanks. Women are raped, and stoned if they don’t submit; refugees seeking to escape Al-Qaeda authority are flogged, crucified, decapitated, buried alive, or shot (the latter form of execution being for the Wahhabis a rather banal, merciful way of killing victims).

    It is these terrorists who the United States and its vassals support in Aleppo and elsewhere in Syria. They have abandoned the argument about the Wahhabis being «our terrorists» for another to the effect that they are «our moderates». This line is just as preposterous and bogus as all the other US justifications for war, though President Putin and his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, have played along trying to persuade the United States to see reason. The Russian strategy has failed, as its other peace strategies have failed, because, inter alia, there are no Islamist «moderates» to separate from the so-called genuine terrorists. «Our moderates» is a fiction and a US cover for its support of Al-Qaeda and its various allies, largely foreign mercenaries fighting against the secular, legitimate government of Syria.

    The only result, so far, of Russian efforts is that US generals threaten «to beat» Russia as never before. The French president threatens Russia and Syria with war crimes indictments, and various British politicians, including the Foreign Secretary, fulminate about Nazi-like bombardments of poor, innocent «moderates» who in fact use Aleppo civilians in their diminishing zone of occupation as human shields, summarily executing those who attempt to escape. In the much larger part of Aleppo which the «moderates» do not control, they deliberately target civilians.

    Will there ever be an end to the hypocrisy and double standards? From Wilson to Johnson, to Obama, we have been subjected to a pack of lies. The US and western narrative about Syria, as elsewhere, is false to the last syllable. The «shining house upon the hill» is a myth. A dark charnel house filled to the ceiling with victims of US and European neo-colonialism would better represent the reality. But don’t expect any western governments to look inside that house. «Collateral damage,» the Americans would say, «and a price worth paying». Myths and lies conceal the real foreign conduct of the United States and its vassals, but that unfortunately is nothing new. The question now is whether Americans, Europeans and Canadians are willing to risk a gratuitous war with Russia for a pack of lies, in defence of the US-led Al-Qaeda invasion of Syria. We, all of us, need to decide quickly, before it is too late.

     

  • PuTTNiK FiGHTS THe RuSSiaN BeaR…

    PUTTNIK FIGHTS THE RUSSIAN BEAR

  • Lawmakers Allege "Quid Pro Quo" Between FBI And State Over Altered 'Classified' Clinton Emails

    About a week ago we wrote about newly released FBI interviews with numerous references to State Department officials, including Patrick Kennedy, applying pressure to subordinates to change classified email codes so they would be shielded from Congress and the public (see “Two Boxes Of Hillary Emails Mysteriously Disappear“).  Here is the relevant section from the FBI’s interview notes:

    Hillary

     

    Now, according to a report from Fox News, new FBI files reviewed by Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah), Chair of the House Oversight Committee, potentially point toward a “quid pro quo” arrangement between the State Department and the FBI whereby Patrick Kennedy, a senior executive at the State Department, offered “additional slots for the FBI at missions overseas” in return of “altering the classification” of certain Hillary Clinton emails.  If true, of course, this new evidence could serve to discredit the entire FBI investigation as the notes are a “flashing red light of potential criminality.”

    FBI interview summaries and notes, provided late Friday to the House Government Oversight and Intelligence Committees, contain allegations of a “quid pro quo” between a senior State Department executive and FBI agents during the Hillary Clinton email investigation, two congressional sources told Fox News.

     

    “This is a flashing red light of potential criminality,” Republican Rep. Jason Chaffetz of Utah, who has been briefed on the FBI interviews, told Fox News.

     

    He said “there was an alleged quid pro quo” involving Undersecretary for Management Patrick Kennedy and the FBI “over at least one classified email.”

     

    “In return for altering the classification, the possibility of additional slots for the FBI at missions overseas was discussed,” Chaffetz said.

     

    “Both myself and Chairman Devin Nunes of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence are infuriated by what we have heard,” he added.

     

    “Left to their own devices the FBI would never have provided these [records] to Congress and waited until the last minute. This is the third batch because [the FBI] didn’t think they were relevant,” Chaffetz said.

    Hillary Comey

     

    Of course, the FBI told Fox News there was absolutely no impropriety in the interactions between the FBI and the State Department.  Apparently an FBI agent just happened to raise the issue of additional slots for agents overseas during a call with Patrick Kennedy about changing email classifications due to a previous unfortunate bout of phone tag between the FBI and State.  Here is the full statement from the FBI to Fox News:

    “Prior to the initiation of the FBI’s investigation of former Secretary Clinton’s personal email server, the FBI was asked to review and make classification determinations on FBI emails and information which were being produced by the State Department pursuant to FOIA. The FBI determined that one such email was classified at the Secret level. A senior State Department official requested the FBI re-review that email to determine whether it was in fact classified or whether it might be protected from release under a different FOIA exemption. A now-retired FBI official, who was not part of the subsequent Clinton investigation, told the State Department official that they would look into the matter. Having been previously unsuccessful in attempts to speak with the senior State official, during the same conversation, the FBI official asked the State Department official if they would address a pending, unaddressed FBI request for space for additional FBI employees assigned abroad. Following the call, the FBI official consulted with a senior FBI executive responsible for determining the classification of the material and determined the email was in fact appropriately classified at the Secret level. The FBI official subsequently told the senior State official that the email was appropriately classified at the Secret level and that the FBI would not change the classification of the email. The classification of the email was not changed, and it remains classified today. Although there was never a quid pro quo, these allegations were nonetheless referred to the appropriate officials for review.”

    The response from the State Department was much more terse:

    “This allegation is inaccurate and does not align with the facts,” State Department Deputy Spokesperson Mark Toner said. “To be clear: the State Department did upgrade the document at the request of the FBI when we released it back in May 2015.”

    What are the odds that so many completely “harmless” coincidences occurred during the investigation of Hillary’s private email server to her explicit benefit…with that kind of luck we suspect she should have won the PowerBall about 2 or 3 times by now.

  • The Fed, Like The BOJ, Is Now In The Curve Steepening Business: What That Means For Markets

    Following Janet Yellen’s strange speech from Friday, titled “The Elusive ‘Great’ Recovery” in which a seemingly perturbed Yellen not only admitted that the Fed may have hit peak confusion and that 7 years after unleashing a global, multi-trillion asset reflation experiment, it has not only failed to reflate non-market assets (at least both bonds and stocks are near all time highs on central bank buying), but in which the Fed chair also admitted the Fed is not even sure it understands the phenomenon of inflation any more, and in which Yellen’s reference to stoking a “high-pressure economy” and the lack of a mention of raising interest rates (coupled with her suggestion that the Fed “may want to aim at being more accommodative” during recoveries) was initially seen as a dovish sign, the just as confused market first rose, then fell after it reintrepreted her comments not so much as dovish, but as refering “financial stability”, something that Eric Rosengren explained earlier on Friday refers to steepening the yield curve, which in effect is a tapering of long-end purchases, or – as we first dubbed it when previewing the BOJ’s similar operation – a reverse Operation Twist.

    The result was a prompt jump in 10Y and 30Y TSY yields to session highs on Friday after Yellen’s speech discussing “plausible ways” to reverse adverse supply-side effects by temporarily running a “high-pressure economy”, but more importantly the 5s30s steepened. Indeed, the selloff in long end saw 30Y yields rise by more than 7bp, topping 2.55% for 1st time since June 23 Brexit vote, the 10Y yield was higher by 5bp at 1.791%, above closing levels since June 2, while the short end barely budged.

    But the steepening mood started not with Yellen but with Eric Rosengren, the president of the Boston Fed President, who dissented from the FOMC’s decision to hold rates steady at its September meeting, and who said is perplexed by historically low 10-year Treasury yields, which “haven’t rebounded as in other recoveries, with investors willing to accept a vanishingly small premium over their inflation expectations to hold them.” 

    Perhaps the reason for that is that despite the endless rhetoric, there hasn’t actually been a, you know, “recovery.”

    As Bloomberg’s Daniel Kruger observed, Rosengren cited the Fed’s extensive holdings of 10-year Treasuries as a reason, but speculated that there’s a more likely and enduring cause: safety, in the wake of the financial crisis, is more expensive than it used to be. “It’s a global phenomenon. In 2006 a 10-year Treasury buyer received 2.3 percentage points more in interest than the market’s 10-year inflation forecast. That’s fallen to 0.2 percentage points this year. Spreads have narrowed in Japan and Germany, as well. Buyers of 10-year JGBs now get 0.4 percentage point less, and in Germany it’s an 0.8 percentage point less.”

    So, not surprisingly, just like the BOJ before it, Rosengren suggested to use the Fed’s balance sheet to steepen the yield curve. The gap between five- and 30-year debt has widened 0.24 percentage point from the 20-month low of 1.03 percentage points in August. And with about one-fourth of the Fed’s $2.46 trillion in Treasuries matures in 2027 or later, selling a portion would certainly widens the curve even more. However, it will most certainly backfire should investors sell risk assets in order to fund purchases of long-term Treasuries at suddenly higher yields, which as we explained just over a month ago, is the dreaded VaR shock scenario where a rapid selloff in bonds promptly migrates to other risk assets courtesy of risk-parity deleveraging, which in turn forces a scramble for “safety”, i.e., the very same long-maturity securities, whose selloff prompted the panic in the first place.

    Indeed, as Kruger points out, removing stimulus from the long-end of the bond market isn’t going to boost risk appetite in broader financial markets or stimulate growth. In other words, it will lead to more selling, something which US equity futures appear to be doing right this very moment.

    * * *

    The Fed is not the only one suddenly expecting a notably steeper yield curve. Over the weekend, Deutsche Bank’s Dominic Konstam who until recently expected the 10Y to drop as low as 1.25%, has also changed his mind and now expects the long end to rise due to the market’s expectations of further steepening.

    But it won’t all be song and games, because as Dalio and Goldman have both warned, should rates move too high, too fast, MTM losses will become so great that the move itself will provoke a scramble right back into fixed income, and other deflationary, assets.

    This is what Konstam said in his Credit Weekly publication:

    If we are right and yields continue to rise with the curve steeper, there will inevitably be concern for risk assets and perhaps for the economic “recovery”. For this reason we think investors should view the moves as more tactical rather than structural and, importantly, consistent with easier policy at the front end. In the extreme the BoJ and ECB can ease still further to underwrite the steeper yield curve while the Fed can delay hikes for longer. While many investors have been lulled into a sense of low long rates are desirable, we continue to think that the central banks are shifting gears whereby steeper yields curves per se are more desirable for helping to stabilize bank profits and higher long yields per se for the entitlement industry as well as to soften the hunt for yield that may be driving excessively low risk premia in risk assets.  The BoJ target for zero 10s is clearly in this framework – although as we argued two weeks ago the logic must be a dramatic decline in short rates to support 1s5s JGB curve steepening AND 5s10s JGB curve flattening so that 5y5y can fall or at least be stable relative to the US especially, despite sticky 10 year JGB yields. In turn, this will allow for a weaker yen. A weaker yen is critical to raise inflation expectations – it is about the only thing that matters for Japanese inflation. As of now note there has been a decent steepening in 1s5s (5 bps over 2 weeks vs. recent low of just 7 bps) while 5s10s has been stable to slightly flatter although overall 5y5y is slightly higher.

     

    Rosengren’s statement that…”[I]f one were concerned about the historically low 10-year Treasury and commercial real estate capitalization rates, perhaps because of potential financial stability concerns, the balance sheet composition could be adjusted to steepen the yield curve” After the Great recession. A Not-So-Great Recovery FRB Boston, October 14, 2016, we think is an important new augmented angle from the Fed that fits well with our thesis. Below we look at options that the Fed might take in the event that it also wanted to steepen the yield curve.

     

    As an illustration of the sorts of financial stability concerns we have been highlighting the richness of the SPX in relation to real yields and breakevens and specifically how this richness has been achieved via specific sectors that have performed increasingly well even as breakeven yields have fallen – the coefficients have effectively flipped since 2013 for sectors like healthcare, utilities, staples. This shows up as a compression of earnings yields to (falling) nominal yields via lower real yields and stable to lower breakevens. Restoring risk premia in the bond market therefore will at least forestall a further richening in risk assets but may also allow for some reversal. To the extent that breakevens recover with real yields still relatively low should at least though limit the risk asset correction – a pause that refreshes rather than a tantrum. Again the idea is that this is tactical not structural. There is an important distinction to make versus late last year when the fed was not just hiking but threatening to hike every quarter so real yields themselves had a full on tantrum as the dollar soared. This is exactly what needs to be avoided and we expect it to be avoided in the context of the current ongoing policy re-jig.

     

    Twist Reversal?

     

    Treasury curve steepened on Rosengren’s comments about adjusting Fed’s balance sheet to steepen the yield curve on financial stability concerns. The change in Fed’s balance sheet composition could steepen the yield curve similar to how Twist flattened the curve in 2011 and 2012. Fed portfolio extension during Twist was worth about 45-50bp in 5s-30s based on our model.

     

    We fit 5s-30s curve to Fed funds to 2s and Fed portfolio average maturity from November 2010 to December 2012 to capture Twist effect. The original intension was to extend our ten-year bootstrap fair value model, which uses Fed funds to 2s and Fed funds target as input variables, to curve slope by adding the Fed portfolio maturity variable. As Fed funds target was unchanged during that period, that variable becomes irrelevant. Note that the Fed portfolio average maturity dominates in the regression with a -4.4 t-stats and a six-month lag. Twist contributed 50bp to the 5s-30s flattening during that period.

     

    The coefficient on the Fed portfolio average maturity is about -0.014 per month. A one-year change Fed portfolio average maturity is worth about 17bp in 5s-30s.

     

    To change the portfolio composition, the Fed can stop reinvestments of maturity coupon debt at 10- and 30-year auctions. Treasury then needs to borrow more from the market in the long end, steepening the curve. Alternatively, the Fed can stop reinvestments of maturity coupon debt at all auctions and use the proceeds to buy short dated coupon debt in open market operations while keeping the balance sheet stable.

     

     

    One final warning: it was Rosengren’s comments, together with the hint that the BOJ would proceed will full blown curve steepening, in the week of September 5 that spooked markets which not only ultimately led to a dramatic steepening in the JGB curve, but also to the sharpest drop in the S&P since Brexit. Now, one month later, we have another set of even more vocal Rosengren comments and this time it is not the BOJ but the Fed which is suggesting the next big monetary move will be not more easing but implicit tightening via Reverse Twist. Meanwhile Libor is soaring and pressuring everyone who has floating exposure, while the rising long end is about to put an end to any housing “recovery.” As such, keep a close eye on risk assets not just overnight but in the next few days, as a “deja vu all over again” moment is increasingly likely, especially if the Ray Dalio’s of the world decide they would rather sit this one out…

     

    Risk Parity

  • Podesta Emails Reveal Hillary Planned Obama "Hit" For Cocaine Use In 2008 Campaign

    Remember in the 2nd Presidential debate when Hillary stole Michelle Obama’s line saying “when they go low, we go high.”  It was hard to miss it as the mainstream media replayed it over and over for several days after the debate.

     

    But new Podesta emails show that a better slogan might have been “when they go low, we get high.”  Despite repeatedly claiming the “high road,” the following email from Neera Tanden, head of the liberal think tank Center for American Progress, clearly shows the Clinton campaign organized a below-the-belt hit on Obama back in 2007 over his admitted cocaine use.

    Perhaps even more important is Neera’s scathing assessment of Hillary’s “instincts” which she describes as “suboptimal.”  Something tells us that could get Neera in a bit of trouble in the not too distant future.

    Obama

     

    The email references the following exchange between back in 2007 on MSNBC when Democratic strategist Mark Penn repeatedly brought up the word “cocaine” causing Joe Trippi to nearly lose his mind.

    PENN:  Well, I think we have made clear that the — the issue related to cocaine use is not something that the campaign was in any way raising. And I think that has been made clear. I think this kindergarten thing was a joke after Senator…

     

    TRIPPI: This guy`s been filibustering on this. He just said cocaine again. It`s like…

     

    PENN: I think you`re saying cocaine.

     

    In fact, new polling data discovered among Podesta’s emails from 2007 even reveals that the Clinton campaign tested the “cocaine hit” with potential voters…unfortunately no one seemed to care about the issue but the Clinton camp decided to take it for a spin anyway.

    Obama

     

    While an impartial media would call out candidates for claiming to “take the high road” while working behind the scenes to organize below-the-belt hits, somehow we suspect that Hillary will get a pass on this one.

     

    And here are the full poll results from 2007:

  • Learning From The British Election Of 1722

    Submitted by Gary Galles via The Mises Institute,

    It has become commonplace to note that the 2016 election campaign is unlike any America has seen before. Whether it is the issues brought to the fore, the number of scandals, or the intensity of the personal invective, it is hard to believe we are now within the bounds of what our founders had in mind.

    In fact, we can make that statement going back more than half a century before our founding. The reason is that one of the greatest influences on colonial American political thought was Cato’s Letters, in which John Trenchard and Robert Gordon echoed John Locke in the early 1720s. According to Ronald Hamowy, its

    arguments against oppressive government and in support of the splendors of freedom were quoted constantly and its authors were regarded as the country’s most eloquent opponents of despotism…[and] frequently served as the basis of the American response to the whole range of depredations under which the colonies suffered.

    Of particular note in regard to our current election choices are Cato’s Letters 69 and 70, which addressed British voters about the choice of representatives they faced in their fiercely fought general election of 1722. Those letters bring us back to how far we have moved from what George Washington described as “the sacred fire of liberty…staked on the experiment entrusted to the hands of the American People,” making some of its insights worth reconsideration today:

    • "Our country abounds with men of courage and understanding; nor are there wanting those of integrity and public spirit: There is an ardent desire and diffusive love of liberty…and many begin to be tired, sick, and ashamed of party-animosities, and of quarrelling…to gratify the pride, the ambition, and rapine of those who only sell and betray them. It is yet in our power to save ourselves."
    • "Let us not again be deluded with false promises and deceitful assurances; but let us judge what men will do by what they have done."
    • "Throw your choice upon such who will neither buy you, nor sell you."
    • "In corrupt administrations, your superiors of all kinds make bargains, and pursue ends at the public expense, and grow rich by making the people poor."
    • Think what you are doing, while you are raising hue and cry after men who will betray you…for a poor momentary share of their infamous plunder.
    • Know, Gentlemen, how you are used above, by those who think it worth their time to flatter you below, and to your faces…It depends now upon yourselves, whether you will deserve these base and reproachful names, or not; show that you are men.
    • Liberty: You are our Alpha and Omega, our first and last resource; and when your virtue is gone, all is gone…you may choose whether you will be freemen or vassals; whether you will spend your own money and estates, or let others worse than you spend them for you.
    • "You are born to liberty, and it is your interest and duty to preserve it…your governors have every right to protect and defend you, none to injure and oppress you…But it depends upon yourselves alone to make these rights of yours…of use to you."
    • "All men desire naturally riches and power; almost all men will take every method, just or unjust, to attain them. Hence the difficulty of governing men."
    • "While men are men, ambition, avarice, and vanity, and other passions, will govern their actions; in spite of all equity and reason, they will be ever usurping, or attempting to usurp, upon the liberty and fortunes of one another, and all men will be striving to enlarge their own. Dominion will always desire increase, and property always to preserve itself; and these opposite views and interests will be causing a perpetual struggle: But by this struggle liberty is preserved."
    • "The interest of the body of the people is to keep people from oppression, and their magistrates from changing into plunderers."
    • "Nor can there be any security in the fidelity of one [representative], who can find it more his interest to betray you than to serve you faithfully."
    • "Choose not therefore such who are likely to truck away your liberties for an equivalent to themselves, and to sell you to those against whom it is their duty to defend you."
    • "This is not a dispute about dreams or speculations, which affect not your property; but it is a dispute whether you shall have any property, which these wretches throw away."
    • "Do you not know how much you are at the mercy of their honesty…whether you are to be freemen or slaves…Would you allow the common laws of neighborhood to such as steal or plunder your goods, rob you of your money, seize your houses, drive you from your possessions, enslave your persons, and starve your families? No, sure, you would not."
    • "Consider what you are about…We are all in your hands, and so at present are your representatives; but very quickly the scene will be shifted, and both you and we will be in theirs…think what they are like to be, when they are no longer under your eye…These humble creatures, who now bow down before you, will soon look down upon you."

    Cato’s Letters 69 and 70 focused on the British election of 1722. But they also provide a useful civics primer for the principles American voters concerned with the progressive evisceration of liberty should consider this November, almost three centuries later. However, those principles seem to disqualify both major party candidates, neither of whom exhibits more than a lukewarm commitment for defending our freedoms. No wonder so many are torn about who to hold their nose and vote for. But that begs the question: Is voting for anyone whose positions are so at odds with our founding defensible, if one believes in liberty?

  • Iraq Launches Military Offensive To Retake Mosul From ISIS; Up To 1 Million Refugees Expected

    Moments ago, Iraq’s Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi publicly announced the start of an offensive to retake Mosul, the capital of Islamic State’s caliphate in Iraq. US troops are said to be playing a “supporting role” in the offensive, with the Iraqi army and Kurdish Peshmerga fighters making up the bulk of the 30,000-strong force.

    Washington recently announced the deployment of 600 additional US troops to help with the city’s recapture, bringing the total number of US force management personnel to move than 5,000, according to the Pentagon.

    “The hour has come and the moment of great victory is near,” Prime Minister el-Abadi said in a speech on state TV, surrounded by the armed forces’ top commanders. “I announce today the start of the operation to liberate the province of Nineveh.”

    The assault on Mosul is backed the U.S.-led coalition and could be one be the biggest military operations in Iraq since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein.It is expected to last several weeks if not longer.

    “We are proud to stand with you in this historic operation,” Brett McGurk, U.S. envoy to the coalition against Islamic State, said on Twitter at the start of the Mosul offensive.

    Mosul is the last major stronghold of ultra-hardline Sunni group in Iraq. With a pre-war population of around 2 million, the northern Iraqi city is the largest city Islamic State has controlled after it declared a “caliphate” in Iraq and neighboring Syria in 2014.

    The launch of the offensive does not come as a surprise to anyone, and certainly not ISIS, after leaflets declaring “Victory Time” were dumped over the city on Sunday. Local media outlets reported earlier over the weekend that the Iraqi army and allied militiamen may start the offensive against the ISIS “capital” in Iraq on Monday. The International Red Cross warned the move could create a million refugees.

    The operation to drive Islamic State out of Iraq’s second-largest city Mosul was due to start “early on Monday,” Sky News Arabia reported citing sources in Iraqi Kurdistan. Similar reports have been filed by Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency, citing Iraqi government sources. The action is set to be backed by the US-led anti-IS coalition. However according to RIA, which cited a military source, the operation might be delayed, since the terrorists are now allegedly aware of the exact plan. The jihadists have hence “booby trapped roads” to Mosul forcing the Iraqi military to change plans, the source adds.

    But the biggest question is where will the up to 1 million refugees go. Around half of the city’s original population of more than 2 million remain in Mosul, and most of them could flee once fighting begins, which would create another refugee crisis and what one representative has called “one of the largest man-made displacement crises of recent times,” according to CNN.

    Camps are reportedly being set up to accommodate those who leave the city.

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Today’s News 16th October 2016

  • EconMatters YTD Returns 2016 (Video)

    By EconMatters


    Here are EconMatters results for 2016, we actually struggled relatively speaking in the first quarter as we were still adjusting our strategies to bring down the vol risk in the portfolio, but after April with some slight adjustments, we have been kicking ass and taking names, and our equity curve graph (which will remain private) as it gives away some insight into our methodology to competitors, is just a beautiful piece of artwork and shall be framed at year end. Yes it is possible to still blow away the benchmarks!

    © EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle   

  • Obama Enters Media Wars: Why His Recent Attack On Free Speech Is So Dangerous & Radical

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    Control of the news media is an instrumental, key feature to any totalitarian government. In contrast, the primary reason this experiment known as the United States has lasted so long under relatively free conditions is due to the preservation of free speech (and press) via the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.

    In case you haven’t read it in a while, here’s the text:

    Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

    Nowhere in there do I see an exception for “conspiracy theories,” but apparently Constitutional scholar Barack Obama has an alternative interpretation.

    As reported by AFP:

     

    Pittsburgh (AFP) – President Barack Obama on Thursday decried America’s “wild, wild west” media environment for allowing conspiracy theorists a broad platform and destroying a common basis for debate.

     

    Recalling past days when three television channels delivered fact-based news that most people trusted, Obama said democracy require citizens to be able to sift through lies and distortions.

     

    “We are going to have to rebuild within this wild-wild-west-of-information flow some sort of curating function that people agree to,” Obama said at an innovation conference in Pittsburgh.

     

    “There has to be, I think, some sort of way in which we can sort through information that passes some basic truthiness tests and those that we have to discard, because they just don’t have any basis in anything that’s actually happening in the world,” Obama added.

     

    “That is hard to do, but I think it’s going to be necessary, it’s going to be possible,” he added.

     

    “The answer is obviously not censorship, but it’s creating places where people can say ‘this is reliable’ and I’m still able to argue safely about facts and what we should do about it.”

    The above may sound good on a superficial level to people with zero critical thinking skills, but even the most elementary analysis exposes it as the obvious and dangerous attack on free speech that it is. Let’s zero in on a few things he said in closer detail.

    He describes the media environment as the “wild, wild west.” Kind of sounds like an environment in which people are free to say, publish or record whatever they want, and let the chips fall where they may. Seems consistent with the first amendment to me.

    He notes that there needs to be “some sort of way in which we can sort through information that passes some basic truthiness tests and those that we have to discard.” This sounds good on the surface because, after all, who doesn’t want truth? The problem lies in the fact that governments can and do lie all the time about stuff of monumental significance. Let’s take the Iraq war for example. As I discussed in August’s post, Questioning Hillary’s Health is Not Conspiracy Theory:

    Of course, the New York Times rendering judgment on those pushing conspiracy theories would be downright hilarious if it weren’t so sad. For example, the paper itself exhibited no such restraint when it came to peddling U.S. government conspiracies about Iraq in the run up to one of the most inhumane, unnecessary and destructive foreign policy blunders in American history. In fact, the paper was ultimately so embarrassed by its own behavior, it issued a statement in 2004 titled, FROM THE EDITORS; The Times and Iraq

    Meanwhile, there were millions of people in the “wild west” of opinion making yelling and screaming that the government was misleading the public about Iraq in order to go to war. So who got it right, the New York Times, or the wild, wild west?

    If Obama had his way, those people who asserted that the public was being mislead into the Iraq war would have been dismissed as “conspiracy theorists” not worth paying attention to since they refused to agree with government “facts.” Obama’s position is such an obvious authoritarian slippery slope, one has to ask why he would dare go so far.

    My view is that there is a full on panic occurring right now at the very top of America’s shadow government due to the fact that the public is no longer falling for corporate media propaganda. Once again, let’s turn to something I wrote in the post, Questioning Hillary’s Health is Not Conspiracy Theory:

    As I look at the landscape in 2016 to-date, I observe emergent signs that alternative media is finally beginning to take over from the legacy mainstream media when it comes to impact and influence. The mainstream media (unlike with John McCain in 2008), had decided that Hillary Clinton’s health was not an issue and chose not to pursue it. Many in the alternative media world took a different position, and due to mainstream media’s failure to inform the American public for decades, the alternative media drove that issue to the top of the news cycle. That’s power.

     

    This is an incredibly big deal, and the mainstream media intuitively knows what it means. It means a total loss of legitimacy, prestige and power. All of which is well deserved of course.

     

    So here’s the bottom line. 2016 represents the true beginning of what I would call the Media Wars. Alternative media is now capable of driving the news cycle. Mainstream media now has no choice but to fight back, and fight back it will. It will fight back dirty. This is going to get very ugly, but by the time the dust has settled, I think much of the mainstream media will be left as a shell of its former self.

    By ugly, I didn’t expect the President of these United States to so publicly and radically advocate in favor of free speech restrictions, but here we are.

     

    Let’s conclude by tackling another portion of his talk, where he states, “the answer is obviously not censorship, but it’s creating places where people can say ‘this is reliable’ and I’m still able to argue safely about facts and what we should do about it.” 

    Who exactly is supposed to be granted the power to create such spaces and verify things as factual? We know that government lies all the time, yet when they lie, they present such falsehoods as fact. It is the duty of the people to decide what to believe and what not to believe. This is not the job of government, or anyone else for that matter.

    Yes, it’s true that there’s an unbelievable amount of garbage out there on the internet, but yet we manage. What seems to be happening here with Obama is a not so subtle attempt to blame the rise of Trumpism on alternative media as opposed to the actual culprit, his oligarch coddling policies. It’s a sign of pathetic desperation from a man who has completely and utterly failed the American public while protecting the rich and powerful. It’s an ugly manifestation of an executive who cannot come to terms with the justified anger of a public who feels betrayed by him. Sure a compliant, preening and entirely propagandist media would make Obama feel a whole lot better about his miserable legacy, but we shouldn’t sacrifice the first amendment to achieve this.

    For more on this topic, see:

    Hillary Clinton Enters the Media Wars

     

    The Death of Mainstream Media

  • September Global Auto Sales Hit Record High Thanks To China's New Car Bubble

    In recent months the US auto industry has been bombarded with a barrage of bad news: starting with Ford’s disastrous August sales when the company admitted “sales have reached a plateau“, continuing to the surge in delinquent subprime auto borrowers hitting nearly a 7 year high as the marginal creditworthy car buyers disappears, then noting the record $4,000 in industry-wide new car incentives in September as preventing a plunge in last month’s auto sales, and recalling last week’s downgrade of the US auto sector by Goldman which said that the US “cycle has peaked“…

    …one would think that global auto sale would follow a similar downward trajectory. One would be wrong.

    According to data by JPM, global auto sales jumped 3.5%m/m in September on the back of strong gains in July and August. The pace of sales now stands at an all-time high of 78.0 million units per month, annualized. In whole, auto sales jumped 16.2%ar in 3Q (%3m/3m basis). On a %3m change basis, the move is an even more impressive 27% annualized through September.

    The first warning light, however, that this number is fake is that as JPM admits, it “contrasts with a more subdued pace of overall consumer goods spending, which is looking to have taken a breather starting in August.

    The second warning is what we noted earlier in the week, when we reported that as one Chinese bubble has popped (again), namely the housing one, the country is now steering its consumers into the latest and greatest of Chinese asset bubbles: autos. JPM confirms as much warning that “China’s influence on the recent surge in auto sales is large and this suggests some caution is warranted in taking too large a signal.”

    Actually it’s not a warning light: it’s a full bore siren. According to the latest data, of the impressive 4.4mn unit rise in global auto sales since June, China alone contributed for 84% of this global increase, or 3.7mn units.

    How did China manage to blow such a major bubble so fast? JPM explains that as the largest auto sales market in the world, China witnessed a spur in auto sales over the past year. However, this is not due to organic demand, and is almost entirely to a tax cut (by half) on small engine cars implemented by the government in September 2015. Since the cut, China’s auto sales have increased by 33%. Think cash for clunkers on trillions of debt-funded steroids.

    And just like in the aftermath of the financial crisis when China’s unprecedented debt growth spree kept the world comatose out of cardiac arrest, it is the massive Chinese demand impulse, which will shortly fade, that is pushing the world forward if only for the time being.  As JPM admits, excluding China from its global aggregate paints a different picture. Auto sales in this group basically did not grow in 3Q. Much of the weakness came from the EM ex China group, where auto sales fell almost 5%ar in 3Q. DM auto sales also did not impress in 3Q with a modest 2%ar move up. Large declines in 3Q auto sales were seen in Japan, Sweden, Norway, Korea, Brazil, Russia, and Czech Republic, with Emerging markets and oil producers such as Brazil and Russia impacted the most.

    Finally, here are JPM’s thoughts on the US:

    Zooming in on the US, auto sales have stabilized over this year despite a solid gain last quarter. Year-to-date, auto sales are up only 1.4%. Nevertheless, at 17.7mn units (saar), US auto sales remain robust. And with the balance of auto loans peaking recently above $1 trillion, there are growing concerns about asset quality. For now, delinquency rates are low. However, given the 35% rise over the past four years in low-credit-score auto loans, the risks are increasing of a more serious deterioration in the event of an economic slowdown.

    This is precisely the base-case scenario that prompted Goldman Sachs to downgrade the US auto sector and to warn that the US auto cycle has finally peaked. As for record global auto sales, the question now becomes how much longer China can carry the world on its shoulders as it redirects its bubble-creating might to yet another asset class, and how the global manufacturing base will respond when this latest bubble shortly bursts too.

     

  • Statistician Warn Of "Systemic Mainstream Misinformation" In Poll Data

    Submitted by Salil Mehta via Statistical Ideas blog,

    Antagonism isn't perpetual

    If you recently glanced at the polls and the election markets, then you would be forgiven to believe that a landslide election is looming.  It's likely not, and the spreads have the potential to revert in surprising ways between now and Election Day.  The drumbeat of negative news against Donald Trump may not cause further damage.  We've discussed numerously, starting on October 11 and October 12, that Hillary Clinton's runaway spread would revert (here, here, here, here). 

    Of course that's a stand taken against a popular headwind, but also an opportunity to make money on an election bet that is mispriced.  For example, when we wrote the reversion article, the betfair ask that Mr. Trump's popular vote could remain in the 40's% was only priced at 1:6 odds.  Nate Silver's 538 site also reflected this, as shown below.  But we -and other academic statisticians- knew that this was faux election probability, and advised thousands to remain vigilant against planned mainstream misinformation

    Incidentally, today's betfair bid is 20% higher; not many investments have risen 20% in just the past couple days.  And the wager could explode to 500% profit, exposing how steeply deluded the polls have been.  This article isn't merely about gambling, but goes to the heart of what makes polls different among one another, and across time.  And what should we be cautious of when interpreting the information, while almost never reading (and sometimes not having access to) all the underlying probability details of the poll generation?  In particular, we'll delve into the inconspicuous L.A. Times poll here, where for much of the past month they showed Donald leading Hillary.  How did they come to that, and what value is there in paying attention to alleged outliers?

    Recently the New York Times (NYT) wrote a piece that the USC/L.A. Times (LAT) poll was biased against Hillary Clinton by at least 4 percentage points, through the exaggerated sampling of one Black Chicago youth.  The NYT thesis for sampling issues was not based on general theory at all, but only because the survey respondent was a feverish Donald Trump supporter.  Apparently the LAT has always been a good pollster until this one Black man became a Trump supporter; now the LAT poll is suddenly comprehensively terrible.  Right… Now the NYT was both smart and correct in pointing out the seeming anomaly, but also misdiagnosed the root cause of the puzzle.

    The LAT should retain their entire sample, and not simply alter responses because the pollster doesn't like what he or she hears.  Removing select responses has that same effect, and this is partly why mainstream pollsters have systematically unfavored Republicans in nearly 2/3 of elections in the past several decades, where there have been a meaningful surprise in the general election outcomes.  And in every case where such a reversal of fate has led to an actual victory for the October polling-laggard, it was always a Republican who won.  This should give everyone pause to consider the strength of these "scientific" polls.  We can often see something be misrepresented, yet be masquerade as disciplined science.

    Now the LAT pollster allows for some interesting statistical features that are not in other polls (many of which follow our blog).  For example, it allows the survey participant to partially self-weigh their own response, and factors in his or her own prior voting record.  These are worthy developments in most cases, including the case here of the 19-year old Black Trump supporter.  Polling has to fill in a lot of gaps, particularly this year where there are a greater than normal number of undecideds and non-responders.  This increases the error, not lessens it (per our viral article here read by >100 thousand including senior advisers of both parties).  And the fact that most other polls do not scale their survey responders accordingly, equally leads to a higher than expected favorability (based only on momentum) for those who for now agree with Ms. Clinton more so than Mr. Trump.

    Of course we know across all polls this year there is a perception that Hillary has an polling edge when it comes to "perceived" favorability or social desirability (it's been noted that 10-15% of people have lost a friend due to the 2016 election); though this conflates with the overall bias going back many decades and so it's unclear how much additional bias comes from that.  But the NYT overestimates the overall edge that the LAT has if this one Black youth is completely off in his responses; it is only about 1-2 percentage points.  Not enough to close the nearly 5-10 percentage point difference the LAT has with the rest of the mainstream polls.  The NYT is correct that the overweighting by LAT may exist however, in that this one individual is weighted a little more relative to the typical person.  But this does not negate the data point altogether.  Does anyone credibly believe that not a single Black person is going to vote for Donald Trump?

    The bottom line is that polls on the fringes (e.g., the LAT and to a lesser degree only the trends in the conservative-advocating Rasmussen both showing Mr. Trump leading for much of the past month) should be taken a little more seriously due to the informative value they provide in how the many undecideds and non-responders will ultimately vote.  In historical polling data people tend to make up their mind for candidates, and rarely does it lead to further subtractions from current polling levels.  It is doubtful therefore that somehow any new negative information about Donald would compel someone, at long last in these final weeks, to ultimately switch allegiances.  And while the theory of poll of polls works great to reduce the variance of errors, it does nothing to counter any systematic errors we may see hurtling through in the current election cycle.  This is a significant lesson that remains lost among political hacks keen to simply analyze the data.

    Another note is that you should be wary of taking too seriously the political advice of people who so recently badly errored in the Primary elections!  This is not to cast a spotlight on any one individual, since the entire field of data journalism just saw a catastrophic result over the past year.  But it's clear from the polling and the prediction betting market levels that the grave lessons from the past have not yet been learned.  This summer's Brexit vote was just another example of election-eve overconfidence by pollsters and bookies.  But stateside we do see the promotion of false confidence on preposterous polling statistics.  The media ratings pursuit must inherent some blame, since news demands easily digestible insight that crookedly beguiles their patrons.  And if we expose the overshadowing uncertainty surrounding these election predictions, then no one would venture into paying further attention.  Even more reason for you to pay some attention to the outlier polls, especially this year!

     

  • Russia Slams "Unprecedented, Insolent" US Cyber Threats, Vows Retaliation

    In a striking report released on Friday night by NBC, the Obama administration was reportedly “contemplating an unprecedented cyber covert action” (it remains unclear how the action is covert if Biden announced it to the world via an interview with Chuck Todd), a “wide-ranging clandestine cyber operation designed to harass and “embarrass” the Kremlin leadership”, in retaliation for alleged interference in the American presidential election, and has asked the CIA to draft plans for a “wide-ranging “clandestine” cyber operation designed to harass and “embarrass” the Kremlin leadership.”

    As we reported last night, Vice President Joe Biden said that Washington is ready to respond to hack attacks allegedly conducted by Russia and designed to interfere with the upcoming US elections.

    “Why haven’t we sent a message yet to Putin,” Chuck Todd, host of the “Meet the Press” show on NBC, asked Joe Biden.

    “We are sending a message [to Putin]… We have a capacity to do it, and…”

    “He’ll known it?” Todd interfered.

    “He’ll know it. It will be at the time of our choosing, and under the circumstances that will have the greatest impact,” the US vice president replied.

    The NBC sources did not elaborate on the exact measures the CIA was considering, but said the agency had already begun opening cyber doors, selecting targets and making other preparations for an operation. “Former intelligence officers told NBC News that the agency had gathered reams of documents that could expose unsavory tactics by Russian President Vladimir Putin”, NBC added.

     

    To be sure, this “leak” of what effectively amount to a cyberwar warning was a calculated move meant to provoke further escalation in tensions between the two nations and a trial balloon to gauge Russia’s response. The response came this morning Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that “US aggressiveness is growing, and threats to carry out cyberattacks against Russia are unprecedented” adding that Russia will take “precautionary measures.”

    The fact is, US unpredictability and aggression keep growing, and such threats against Moscow and our country’s leadership are unprecedented, because the threat is being announced at the level of the US Vice President,” Peskov told RIA Novosti cited by AFP. “Of course, given such an aggressive, unpredictable line, we have to take measures to protect our interests, somehow hedge the risks,” he said, adding that “such unpredictability is dangerous for the whole world.”

    Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov vowed Moscow would respond to any US cyber attacks, saying such threats were “borderline insolence”, the news agency said.

    Accusations against Russia have become louder in recent days with WikiLeaks releasing thousands of “Podesta emails,” exposing Hillary Clinton’s connections to Wall Street and controversial views on Syria, among other things. Numerous left-leaning mainstream media outlets have been quick to accuse the Kremlin of teaming up with WikiLeaks, allegedly providing it with massive amounts of inside scoops to post. The evidence-free allegations have been denied both by Moscow and by WikiLeaks.

    Responding to accusations last week, the Russian presidential press secretary mentioned that “tens of thousands of hackers” try to break into the sites of Russian officials on a daily basis, but this never prompted Moscow to point a finger at Washington.

  • Obamacare Gives Middle Class A Choice: Buy A House Or Get Health Insurance

    The following tweet from Great Stockpix captures not only the reason why the US economy continues to slow down as consumer spending across virtually every category deteriorates, as shown recently courtesy of Bank of America

    … but also distills the “choice” president Obama has given to the middle class: buy a house or get health insurance.

    * * *

    Oh, and as a reminder, the next Obamacare “price shock” is due in just 15 days, at the worst possible time for Hillary Clinton: one week before the elections.

  • Canaries 'In Extremis'

    Submitted by Robert Gore via StraightLineLogic.com,

    Nobody “important” will admit it until after the election, but the resumption of the depression is at hand.

    Most people’s strongest memory of the last financial crisis was the September 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. However, thirteen months prior to that, August 2007, two Bear Stearns’ mortgage hedge funds went bankrupt. That was the bell tolling for the housing market, the mortgage securities market, and—because of the leverage and the interconnections—the global financial system itself. The Dow Jones Industrial Average would not make its high for another couple of months, but for those who knew what they were looking for, the Bear Stearns’ bankruptcies signaled the impending reversal in financial markets and the economy.

    Sometimes one has to see the big picture, and sometimes looking at a host of smaller pictures is more worthwhile. While housing and mortgage finance were the epicenters of the last crisis, there will probably be no single identifiable catalyst for the next one. Not because there are no central-bank sponsored debt-driven bubbles out there, but because there are so many of them, all over the world. Multiple coal mine canaries are in extremis and they’re sending the same message as the Bear Stearns’ bankruptcies did.

    If the US real economy is not already in a recession, it’s on the verge.

    Since 2014, the economy has lost 32,000 manufacturing jobs, while adding 547,000 food service jobs.

     

    Factory orders have declined on a year-over-year basis for 22 straight months, the longest non-”official” recessionary streak in history.

     

    As of August, the Cass Freight Index of transactions by large, non-bulk-commodity shippers has fallen year-over-year for eighteen straight months.

     

    Orders for new long-haul trucks have been in a twenty-month downtrend, and orders last month were the worst for a September since 2009. Volvo Trucks North America, Freightliner (a unit of Daimler), Navistar, and Paccar have announced or implemented layoffs this year.

     

    The Merchandise World Trade Monitor topped out in January, 2015 and July’s number takes it back to the reading for September 2014.

     

    The world’s seventh largest container carrier, South Korea’s Hanjin, recently filed for bankruptcy. Closures and consolidation are the orders of the day for the remaining shippers. Bear markets, overcapacity, and gluts in a range of commodities, other raw materials, intermediate goods, and finished goods garnered a lot of headlines last year and early this year. The headlines have faded but not the underlying conditions. It will take years—far beyond the media’s attention span—and substantial pain before those conditions are remedied or even ameliorated.

     

    Only in Wall’s Street’s bizarro world can the goods economy be dismissed as a small part of the overall economy, which is supposedly driven by finance and services. What does the finance industry finance and the service economy service? In many instances—this will come as no surprise to anybody but Wall Streeters—manufacturing, mining, oil extraction and refining, shipping and trade; all the sectors that are taking gas. Also no surprise: real economy deterioration affects finance and the rest of the service economy.

     

    In August, commercial and industrial loans made by US banks fell for the first time since October 2010. The automobile sector has been a bright spot in the economy, but the lending, particularly subprime lending, that has fueled sales is unraveling. Delinquencies and defaults are rising for subprime auto loans. The delinquency rate is rising even for prime auto loans, although the absolute rate remains low. The aggregated earnings of companies in the S&P 500 have been down for five straight quarters, and will most likely be down for the quarter just ended. In 2015 and all but certainly for 2016, those companies have paid out more in share buybacks and dividends than they have earned.

     

    US commercial bankruptcy filings were up 38 percent year-over-year in September. For the first nine months of 2016 they were up 28 percent from the same period in 2015. Bankruptcy is no longer confined to the oil patch and mining industry. Notably, filings by retailers and restaurants, two bulwarks of the service economy, are increasing. In the last two weeks, four restaurant chains have filed. Say good-bye to that industry’s stellar job growth.

    The recovery since 2009, such as it is, has bestowed most of its meager blessings on those in the top 1 percent of income and wealth. Here’s another inescapable reality for Wall Streeters: a central bank exchanging its conjured-from-thin-air fiat debt scrip for the government’s thin-air fiat debt scrip does not, cannot, produce anything of real economic value. It drives down the interest rate on the government’s fiat debt and it provides a windfall for the 1 percenters who can borrow at low or negative rate and propel asset prices. For the rest of us it’s inconsequential at best, but generally deleterious.

    The inconsequentiality of debt monetization is confirmed by the real world details enumerated above, which indicate the weakest so-called recovery on record is faltering and will soon end, if it has not already done so. There is, of course, no chance that even the faltering will be officially recognized before the election. SLL has maintained that the period since 2009 is merely an interlude in an ongoing depression, similar to respites during the Great Depression. By discouraging true savings, adding to the debt pile, and driving down the return on investment, debt monetization has hindered rather than helped the real economy. The anemic growth rate since 2009 is not despite skyrocketing government debt and soaring central bank balance sheets, but because of them. FDR and his hapless New Dealers would be proud.

    Weakness is even percolating up to the rarified ranks of the 1 percent. Rents are falling and high-end real estate sales slowing in Silicon Valley, the Bay Area, New York, and Houston, formerly pockets of economic strength. The art market, especially for “art” that most of us don’t call “art,” has noticeably softened. The demand for luxury goods isn’t what it used to be, and many purveyors have issued revenue and profit warnings. Those markets have been propelled by Chinese, Russian, and Arab buyers, but home economies are facing challenges and they’re pulling in their horns.

    The “donut” of the global economy is history’s greatest debt bubble, fueled by governments and central banks. The unimportant “hole” is whatever critical hot spot ultimately sends markets and economies down the drain. Who knows which crisis will be assigned the “blame” for the impending cataclysm. The odds-on-favorite is the looming European banking crisis, but here are plenty of other contenders—a pension fund or insurance company driven to insolvency by ZIRP and NIRP, Chinese debt, an upside break out in Middle Eastern or Ukrainian hostilities, political turmoil in Europe or the US—take your pick. No matter which possibility proves out, be prepared. Things will get very ugly, very fast.

  • Europe Launches Largest "Cyber Wargame" In History As Threat Of Cyber Terrorism Looms

    Just as the Obama administration announced plans to provoke a cyber war with Russia over their alleged ties to the hack of Hillary’s emails, Europe is launching the biggest “cyber wargame” in history to prepare for emergency responses to power cuts, banking outages etc.  According to a press release posted by the European Union Agency for Network and Information Security (ENISA), the war games will include various scenarios including power outages and attacks on various national and governmental agencies.

    Today marks the climax of this realistic scenario which thousands of experts from all 28 EU Member States, Switzerland and Norway are facing in Cyber Europe 2016 – a flagship activity organised every two years by ENISA, the EU Agency for Network and Information Security.

     

    Cyber Europe 2016 (CE2016) is the largest and most comprehensive EU cyber-security exercise to date. This large-scale distributed technical and operational exercise started in April 2016, offering the opportunity for cybersecurity professionals across Europe to analyse complex, innovative and realistic cybersecurity incidents. On 13th and 14th of  October ICT and IT security industry experts  from more than 300 organisations, including but not limited to: national and governmental cybersecurity agencies, ministries, EU institutions as well as internet and cloud service providers and cybersecurity software and service providers will be called upon to mitigate the apex of this six-month long cyber crisis, to ensure business continuity and, ultimately, to safeguard the European Digital Single Market

     

    Cyber Europe 2016 paints a very dark scenario, inspired by events such as the blackout in an European Country over Christmas period and the dependence on technologies manufactured outside the jurisdiction of the European Union. It also features the Internet of Things, drones, cloud computing, innovative exfiltration vectors, mobile malware, ransomware, etc. The exercise will focus on political and economic policies closely related to cybersecurity. This also takes into account new processes and cooperation mechanisms contained in the Network and Information Security (NIS) Directive. For the first time, a full scenario was developed with actors, media coverage, simulated companies and social media, bringing in the public affairs dimension associated with cyber crises, so as to increase realism to a level never seen before in cybersecurity exercises.

     

    Per ZD Net, the cyber war games were launched back in April and have been building up to a “major cyber security crisis with a series of fictional attacks on European digital networks.”

    More than 700 security experts are battling a fictional cyber crisis featuring power cuts, drones and ransomware as part of the European Union’s biggest cyber defence exercise to date.

     

    Cyber Europe 2016 kicked off back in April, as since then has been simulating the build up to a major cyber security crisis with a series of fictional attacks on European digital networks, culminating in this week’s finale, where security industry experts from more than 300 organisations work together “to ensure business continuity and, ultimately, to safeguard the European Digital Single Market.”

     

    “Computer security attacks are increasingly used to perform industrial reconnaissance, lead disinformation campaigns, manipulate stock markets, leak sensitive information, tamper with customer data, sabotage critical infrastructures,” warns the scenario.

    For the first time ever the European cyber war games will include a full suite of actors simulating media coverage as well as company and social media reactions.

    ENISA said the exercise features the Internet of Things, drones, cloud computing, innovative exfiltration vectors, mobile malware and ransomware. For the first time, it said, a fully fledged story was developed with actors, media coverage, simulated companies and social media, so as to make the scenario as realistic as possible to those participating.

     

    Because cyber defence is seen as an pressing international issue there are now a number of these large-scale exercises: NATO runs ‘Locked Shields’, which involves around 550 people across 26 nationalities, and is based in Tallinn. The US runs the ‘Cyber Guard’ event every year, which this year saw around 1,000 players dealing with a fictional attack on an oil refinery, power grids, and ports.

    Depending on how far the Obama administration is willing to go with threats to launch a cyber attack against Russia we could have some very real data for ENISA to analyze in the not so distant future about how a country actually responds to a “cyber war.”

  • The "World's Most Bearish Hedge Fund" Reveals Its Next Big Short

    We have previously dubbed Shannon McConaghy’s Horseman Global the world’s most bearish hedge fund for one reason: as recently as a few months ago the fun had taken its net equity short position to an unprecedented -100%. At the end of September, it had modestly trimmed this short to a more modest -87.5%

    What is perhaps just as impressive is that despite the fund’s massive bearish bias, if only in equities, it has managed to keep its YTD return virtually flat, with more profitable than unprofitable months so far in 2016. The offset? A whopping 66% gross long position in bonds.

    And while we have recently documented Horseman‘s pessimistic outlook on Japan, when it comes to the most bearish hedge fund in the world there are shorts, and then there are shorts. In its latest, October, letter to clients the fund reveals what it believes may be just one example of the latter, having taken its exposure in the sector to a massive -20%, and what – if true – could be the next “big short” idea.

    This is what Russell Clark, CIO of Horseman, said in its latest letter to clients:

    You fund made 1.44% net this month, with gains from the short book and the currency book offset by losses from bonds.

     

    “I know he is a good general, but is he lucky?” is apparently a quote from Napoleon. I often think about this quote when looking at the investment management industry. There are numerous successful fund managers who I have looked at and met, who I would describe as more lucky than good. There are far more fund managers I have met who I would describe as good, but unlucky. In fact, the market will almost by definition create more unlucky managers than lucky managers, as almost all jobs in fund management tended to be created at market tops.

     

    This is quite well known, and it is why most investors are always try to invest where no one else is, in some bombed out sector that lacks excitement. While I understand this, it has two very major problems. Firstly, how can you be sure it’s totally bombed out? As my first boss pointed out to me, the difference between a stock that has fallen 80% and a stock that has fallen 90% is 50%. Secondly, liquidity at lows can mean you will not be able to exit for many years.

     

    From my point of view, why don’t we try and do the opposite? Pick out sectors that have been fashionable with managers that have been in the right place at the right time, and then short sell what they own. It has two big benefits. First I find timing this to be much easier. And second, at the top of the market liquidity is plentiful. The only issue is you have to be able and willing to short sell.

     

    So how do you pick a sector or strategy that is at the top of the cycle? Perhaps the best sign of all is a fund that has grown assets rapidly. In the US, I find funds that have reached 20bn in AUM from 5bn in AUM within one or two years are typically great places to look. I feel that when a fund manager grows that quickly, they are typically focusing on maximising management fees over performance.

     

    So what funds have we been looking at recently. As detailed in my recent note on Japan based US REIT funds, these funds look particularly egregious to me. Furthermore, they are raising assets even though US REITs in Yen terms have gone nowhere in the last few years. I find this an exciting area to short, and we have taken this sector to 20% of the fund this month. I find there are a number of equity income funds that have also grown rapidly over the last few years, and I am looking carefully at their long positions for short ideas.

     

    My other observations about fund management has been that investors are pulling out of active strategies and buying passive strategies. There are good reasons for this, as the unpredictable shifts in momentum in the markets have caused active fund management to underperform significantly. However, it feels to me that passive strategies have grown too fast too quickly. I think active fund management is about to have its day in the sun.

     

    Given that the Horseman Global fund is short equities and long bonds, that is about as active as you can get. Or in other words, I am getting bullish on bearishness!

    Clark then gives the following drilldown on the US REITs sold in Japan to justify his bearish stance:

    This month profits came from the short portfolio, in particular from the European and Japanese banks, automobile and consumer staples sectors.The long portfolio incurred a modest loss.

     

    In Japan one perk of getting old is a gift of a silver cup from the prime minister in the year you celebrate your 100th birthday. As the Japanese population is aging, almost 32,000 people were eligible to receive the gift this year, up 4.5% from last year, the government decided to present cups made of silver plate rather than sterling, this year, reducing total spending on the gifts.

     

    The birth rate in Japan has been low for many years (1.4 per woman versus 1.9 in the US and the UK) and the country has very little immigration. As a result the population is ageing. According to the estimate by the Internal Affairs and Communications Ministry, the ratio of people 80 or older accounts for 7.9 percent of the total population, which is more than the entire population of Sweden. The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research forecasts that people aged 65 or older will account for 36.1 percent of the total by 2040. For more information on Japan’s depopulation please refer to Shannon McConaghy’s notes entitled ‘South West Japan Trip’. In our opinion depopulation is a major deflationary force as it suppresses domestic demand.

     

    The generation of 21-year-olds entering the workforce is the first to have grown up in a broad state of deflation. Since their birth year in the 1995 residential land prices have fallen 47% including a fall over the last year. With the ratio of abandoned houses expected to rise from 16% to 28% by 2033 it is likely that land prices will continue to fall. With real estate making up 23% of the core consumer price index it is hard to see sustained inflation.

     

    Deflation has also suppressed wage growth, with average monthly earnings falling 8% from Yen 315,000 in 1996 to Yen 289,000 in 2015, the most recent August data shows another decline in average monthly earnings YoY. In turn, tumbling expectations of future security have fuelled savings. A student from Tokyo recently interviewed by the FT said “I often surprise myself. I am more conservative than my grandmother, she lived in a time of war.” Another student said: “Deflation lives in our minds and has become normal. I am sure that if you gave me Y100,000 now, I would save 99 per cent of it.”

     

    The Bank of Japan adopted ‘Quantitative Easing’ some 15 years ago. The resulting low domestic interest rates, have fuelled the ‘Carry Trade’, a strategy in which a Japanese investors seek foreign denominated assets that offer higher yields than domestic assets. But ‘Carry Trades’ are inherently unsustainable as they are founded on the belief that currency rates over time will not adjust back to reflect relative inflation and interest rate differentials. Examples include Japan’s overseas investments into Australian dollar assets before the Global Financial Crises which swiftly lost money as the currencies corrected.

     

    US-Reits sold in Japan have seen large inflows from Japanese investors recently as they offer ~25% yields. In our opinion they are riskier than generally perceived, please refer to Russell Clark’s note entitled ‘Japanese US REIT funds and the buy case for Yen’ and ‘Japanese US REIT Fund – an update’. We expect Japanese fund flows into US REITS to reverse at some point. Over the past few weeks we have built a 17% short position in US REITS. We remain positive on the Japanese Yen relative to the US dollar as carry trades collapse.

    While Horseman is clearly bearish on Japan, however, its biggest net short exposure remains in the US, where it has a nearly -40% net position.

    Finally, while hardly known for its longs, here is the breakdown of the fund’s Top 10 long positions.

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Today’s News 15th October 2016

  • Lead Lewinsky Scandal Reporter Says NBC Is Sitting On 'Devastating Tape' With Juanita Broaddrick

    Submitted by Thomas Lifson via AmericanThinker.com,

    The NBC subsidiary of Comcast is reportedly combing its archives for material damaging to Donald Trump but ignoring requests to air the full interview with Juanita Broaddrick by Lisa Myers 17 years ago.

    According to Brent Schur of the Free Beacon:

    The reporter that first learned about Bill Clinton’s affair with Monica Lewinsky said on Thursday that NBC is sitting on the full tape of its initial interview with Bill Clinton rape accuser Juanita Broaddrick and should release it before the election.

     

    Michael Isikoff, who was a leading reporter during the Monica Lewinsky scandal, said in a Thursday discussion that NBC should release a 17-year-old tape of an interview that it conducted with Broaddrick. Broaddrick has long claimed that the interview that NBC aired edited out her claim that Hillary Clinton was involved in quashing Broaddrick’s rape claims.

     

    “NBC has the full tape of the original Lisa Myers interview,” Isikoff said during an online discussion on Sidewire.com. “NBC ought to check its archive and run the full interview. (AS long as they’re now culling their archives!)”

    The network previously ran the tape but edited out material that was damaging to Hillary.  This conspiracy has some history to it.

    “Folks have made much of the fact that her claim about the conversation she had with Hillary wasn’t in the interview that run,” Isikoff said. “Broaddrick said it got cut out; Lisa Myers has since agreed Broaddrick said this then—and NBC chose to cut it out.”

     

    NBC has never released an unedited version of its interview with Broaddrick.

     

    Both NBC and the Washington Post “closely vetted” Broaddrick’s claims at the time and chose to run with stories on her claims, Isikoff said.

    If we believe that the cover-up is always worse than the crime (which has been media gospel since Watergate, regarded as the high point of American journalism by most journalists themselves), then Hillary’s suspected intimidation of a woman raped by her husband in order to keep her silent surely outweighs any of the accusations of boorishness lobbed at Donald Trump.

    This time, there is tape.  Tape is what made the difference in focusing public attention on Trump's alleged misbehavior.

    Maybe it is time for the torches and pitchforks to start parading in front of 30 Rock.

    *  *  *

    Broaddrick's recent interview…

  • Visualizing America's $18 Trillion Economy (In 3 Stunning Maps)

    The United States has a $18 trillion economy, which makes it the world’s largest by GDP.

    To show its tremendous size, we previously published a visualization of the global economy that carved the world’s economic production into slices based on each country’s contribution to GDP. While this visualization helps to show how large the U.S. economy is in comparison to other nations, it still doesn’t seem to tell the full story.

    After all, the United States is geographically vast and diverse, and population is spread out and unevenly distributed. This means production and innovation are both concentrated in some areas of the country, while other parts are clearly more rural.

    How can we account for these differences to get a more accurate view of the U.S. economic engine?

    3 MAPS TO VISUALIZE AMERICA’S $18 TRILLION ECONOMY

    Luckily, Mark J. Perry from AEI’s Carpe Diem blog has done some heavy lifting here to help us better understand the size and scope of America’s economy activity.

    Here’s three maps that will make you think:

    The first map redraws state borders to make seven “mega-states” that each have individual economies the size of major countries. California, for example, has an economy the size of France. The whole Northeast has an economy the size of Japan, and so on.

    But even states are very diverse in geography – for example, Arizona has 6.7 million people, but more than two-thirds of those people live in the Phoenix metro area.

    The second map compares the economies of metropolitan areas with entire countries. As you can see, the aforementioned Phoenix metro area has similar economic output to Portugal.

    Meanwhile, the whole corridor from New York through to Washington, D.C. is as big as Canada, Iran, Czech Republic, and Sweden combined.

    The final map builds on this idea, showing that half of America’s economic output comes just from a selection of metropolitan areas. The other half of America’s $18 trillion economy is based in the large swaths of land in between, including thousands of rural areas, villages, towns, and cities.

  • Scenes From The Apocalypse – Mass Immigration Ruins The Streets Of France

    The Paris you know or remember from adverts or brochures no longer exists. While no part of Paris looks like the romantic Cliches in Hollywood movies, some districts now resemble post-apocalyptic scenes of a dystopian thriller. This footage, taken with a hidden camera by an anonymous Frenchman in the Avenue de Flandres, 19th Arrondissement, near the Stalingrad Metro Station in Paris as well as areas in close proximity, shows the devastating effects of uncontrolled illegal mass immigration of young African males into Europe.

    If it weren't for the somewhat working infrastructure, the scene might as well have been the setting of movie shooting – or a slum in Mogadishu. The streets are littered in garbage, the sidewalks are blocked with trash, junk and mattresses, thousands of African men claim the streets as their own – they sleep and live in tents like homeless people.

    If no portable toilets are in reach, open urination and defecation are commonplace. Tens of thousands of homeless Illegal immigrants, undocumented or waiting for a decision of their asylum application, waste away trying to pass the time in the city. Although their prospects of being granted asylum as Africans are bleak, they're hoping for a decision that would grant them an apartment, welfare and make France their new home.

    The conditions are absolutely devastating. The police have given up trying to control these areas, the remaining French people avoid the areas at all cost, crime and rape is rampant, just recently mass brawls and riots made the news as fights broke out near the Stalingrad metro station.

    If current trends continue and the French become minority in their own capital in even more areas, scenes like this might spread to areas frequented by tourists, forever changing the last romantic parts of Paris that match what most people have in mind when they think of the iconic city.

    *  *  *

    Ah, Paris in the fall; less crowds, color everywhere, less expensive, hot chocolate season, and the Palais-Royal Gardens are lovelier than ever. However, there's just one thing…

    Source: Generation Europe

  • How Hillary Sleeps At Night

    Don’t leave home without it…

     

    Source: Townhall.com

  • Is The US On The Verge Of Mass Race Riots?

    Submitted by Stephen McBride Of The Passing Parade

    Ferguson, Baltimore, Ferguson (again), Milwaukee, Charlotte. Much has been made by the media of the recent riots that have taken place across America.

    Which begs the question: Are these riots passing occurrences or, like a series of smaller seismic events, a forewarning of much larger mass civil unrest to come? For the answers, we take a quick trip back in time.

    Watts the Problem?

    Although today’s “flash” riots are increasingly common, they pale in comparison to what took place in the Los Angeles suburb of Watts in 1965 where over six days of rioting and looting 34 people died, 3,500 were arrested, and over $40 million in property damage was done ($300 million in 2016 dollars).

    The riots were sparked when black motorist Marquette Frye was arrested for drunk driving. Locals watched on as the incident unfolded, with word quickly spreading that police had assaulted Frye and a pregnant woman, triggering the Watts riots. Although Frye’s arrest set off the riots, it was merely the straw that broke the camel’s back, unleashing decades of pent-up frustration within the black ghetto.

    Starting in the 1920s, large populations of black people migrated north to cities such as Detroit, St. Louis, and Los Angeles to pursue jobs in newly established manufacturing industries. In LA, the black population jumped from 4% in 1940, to 14% in 1965. But there was a problem.

    LA had long had restrictive covenants preventing blacks from buying and renting property in certain areas. By 1950, around 90% of housing was off limits to black people, effectively concentrating the black immigrants to the city into ghettos such as Watts. By 1965, the city’s expanding black population had had enough of the living conditions and general lack of opportunities.

    At the time, Watts had a 33% unemployment rate, much higher than the national average of 4.5%. Although there were large manufacturing companies in the area, such as General Motors, only 14% of LA’s population owned a car, with most having to use the dreadful public transport system. It took over four hours on public transport to get from Watts to the GM factory, just 22 miles away.

    There were also extremely poor living conditions in Watts. Multiple families regularly shared one-bedroom houses. 65% of all tuberculosis cases in LA came from Watts, and infant mortality was 22% higher than the national average. There was also widespread crime, with over half the black male population having a criminal record.

    These appalling conditions set the stage for the now legendary Watts riots. But even those riots pale in comparison to the events that took place 27 years later.

    The Infamous South Central Riots

    Following the acquittal of four policemen on trial for the beating of Rodney King, six days of mass looting, arson, and rioting took place in South Central LA. The California National Guard, the 1st Marine Division, and the 7th Infantry Division had to be called in to quell the unrest, which resulted in 55 deaths, 11,000 arrests, and over $1 billion in property damage. But once again, the Rodney King incident was only the spark that lit the flame in LA.

    In the decade preceding the LA riots, large manufacturers such as GM and Goodyear relocated, resulting in huge job losses in the area. To compound the misery, the city was hit hard by the 1991 recession. LA, with a population of 3.4 million, lost over 108,000 jobs between 1991 and 1992.

    The combination of exiting manufacturing companies and the recession left 45% of South Central’s black population unemployed, with 31% of black families living below the poverty line. In addition, the average wage in the area was 50% lower than in the rest of LA.

    Even 27 years after the Watts riots, police brutality was still widespread in the area. Between 1986 and 1990, there were 2,152 claims of police brutality. Only 42 were ever investigated. There was also an ongoing crack epidemic, which along with AIDS actually decreased the rising life expectancy among black Americans by two years between the late ‘80s and early ‘90s. The 758 liquor stores situated in the neighborhood didn’t help matters either.

    Furthermore, in part because of the soaring drug use, Los Angeles found itself the epicenter of vicious street violence. Between 1991 and 1992, there were over 2,100 homicides. For comparison, in 2015 the number of homicides was a still-too-high 600.

    But that was then, and this is now.

    Given the attention recent riots have garnered in the media, and the creation of groups such as Black Lives Matter (BLM), one would think the social and economic decay for black Americans has continued. But that narrative would be misleading because conditions have improved considerably.

    • Life expectancy for black Americans at the time of the Watts riots was 65, today it’s 76. The three-year gap with white Americans is the lowest ever, with the gap being reduced by four years since 1992.
    • The poverty rate has declined by 23% since 1965, with the rate actually increasing by 1% for white Americans.
    • Today, 87% of black Americans graduate high school, compared to just 25% of all Americans in 1965.
    • College enrollment has increased by 72% for blacks since 1992.
    • The death-by-homicide rate has declined by 40% since 1992, vs. a 28% drop for whites.
    • The infant mortality rate has decreased by one-fifth since the 1990s.
    • Homeownership has increased 14% since 1965, to 42%, though it is still well below the 71% for whites.

    So, given the improvements in quality of life for black Americans, why have recent riots occurred?

    The (Not So Hidden) Agenda

    The recent riots that have taken place across America have largely been in response to real and perceived injustices against black Americans by law enforcement. Black Lives Matter (BLM), founded in 2013 after the George Zimmerman/Trayvon Martin incident, has been a prominent force in the riots.

    While we have all heard of BLM by now, in an attempt to find out what they actually stand for, we present the description the group itself provides on its website:

    #BlackLivesMatter is a call to action and a response to the virulent anti-Black racism that permeates our society. Black Lives Matter is a unique contribution that goes beyond extrajudicial killings of Black people by police and vigilantes. It goes beyond the narrow nationalism that can be prevalent within Black communities, which merely call on Black people to love Black, live Black and buy Black, keeping straight cis Black men in the front of the movement while our sisters, queer and trans and disabled folk take up roles in the background or not at all.

    So, in addition to the meme that BLM is a response to the killing of black people by police, its mandate leaks over into the whole politically correct gender identity morass.

    We will ignore the gender identity issue, because the question of whether a transsexual is a better advocate for the black community than a “cis” male (for the unenlightened among you, that simply means a person who identifies with the sex they are born with) is unlikely to spark riots. Instead, we turn to the notion that racist white police officers have declared open season on unarmed black men. So how bad, really, is the problem?

    As you can see in the chart, so far in 2016 there have been 238 white people killed by police, compared to 123 black people.

    The media correctly cites that “blacks are only 13% of the population” to suggest the above statistics prove active targeting of blacks by police. Sadly, it is also true that blacks commit violent crime at a far higher rate than their percentage of the population. According to FBI statistics, 47% of all murders in the US are committed by blacks, with the vast majority—90%—of their victims also being black.

    However, there is no reason to let the facts interfere with the narrative. Even a casual glance at the headlines reveals the media are playing a dangerous game of race-baiting, cherry-picking incidents where blacks are the victims of whites.

    Take, for example, the George Zimmerman/Trayvon Martin case. The media repeatedly reported that Zimmerman is white, even though he is Hispanic. NBC went so far as to edit the phone call made to police by Zimmerman so it sounded like he was “racially profiling” Martin. Finally, they used pictures that portrayed Martin as a young boy, whilst showing Zimmerman in an orange jail suit.

    The media used the same tactics when reporting on the Michael Brown incident in Ferguson. They consistently ran with the “Hands up, don’t shoot” narrative that Officer Darren Wilson had killed Michael Brown execution-style. This was, of course, later found to be false.

    Although the media are the ones distorting the facts, they are not the only ones guilty of deliberately stirring the pot of racial tensions.

    Pandering Politicians

    Identity politics is a game politicians love to play.

    On Hillary Clinton’s campaign website, her racial-justice plan is almost twice as long as her economic plan. You will also find racial notes dotted throughout all her various proposals: “African Americans hold only 1.1 percent of energy jobs and receive only 0.01 percent of energy sector profits,” in case you were wondering.

    After the recent police shootings in Tulsa, OK, and Charlotte, NC, and before all the facts had been released, Clinton took to Twitter to condemn the shootings.

    Similar comments have been made by President Obama. Speaking the morning after Trayvon Martin was killed, he said “Trayvon Martin could have been me 35 years ago.”

    But the liberal elites don’t just talk the talk. They put their money where their mouth is.

    Follow the Money

    Black Lives Matter, which has been involved in riots from Ferguson to Charlotte, has received more than $50 million in funding from liberal foundations. In August of this year, The Ford Foundation and Borealis Philanthropy announced the formation of the Black-Led Movement Fund. This fund aims to raise an additional $100 million for the Black Lives coalition over the next six years.

    This funding comes in addition to the $33 million given to BLM by top Democratic donor George Soros, though his Open Society Foundations.

    Indeed, so committed are the Democrats and their donors to playing the race card to shore up their voting blocks, they have gone so far as to pay protesters during this election cycle. The recent DNC leaks exposed that the Democrats were paying protesters to disrupt Trump rallies, including devising a plan to spend over $800,000 to interrupt the Republican National Convention in Cleveland.

    The recent riots in Charlotte also had outside help. A police spokesperson said of the protesters, “They were coming in on buses from out of state. If you go back and look at some of the arrests that were made last night. I can about say probably 70% of those had out-of-state IDs. They’re not coming from Charlotte.”

    Black Votes Matter

    Politicians play the identity politics game for good reason: it gets them elected.

    Black Americans vote overwhelmingly Democrat. You have to travel back to the last time a Clinton was running for president, 1996, to find a blacks-voting-Democrat ratio under 90%.

    With black Americans making up 13% of the population and a voter turnout of around 60%, that’s 25 million votes. If the GOP had secured even 20% of the black vote in 2008, or 15% in 2012, it would have been enough to win the race.

    The Democrats must continually receive over 85% of the black vote in order to win. More importantly, they also need a high turnout on election day. Black voters turned out in force for Obama—62% in 2008, an 11% increase on the 2004 turnout.

    But there’s a problem for Hillary. All the pandering in the world, like telling reporters, “I always carry hot sauce with me” when asked what she brought on trips, won’t make her Obama. So can Hillary expect the same levels of black-voter turnout that Obama was able to garner? The polls suggest not.

    In a recent group of polls from Florida, Clinton was polling at less than 80% with black residents. Leslie Wimes, the South Florida-based president of the Democratic African-American Women’s Caucus said the Clinton camp is in “full panic mode,” as Clinton needs a high black turnout to secure the state.

    But there’s another way to ensure people turn out: keep them angry, resentful, and make them feel they have something to gain from voting. Just like when Donald Trump appeals to the emotions of people who have lost their jobs to globalism, Hillary appeals to people who have been the victims of “historical injustices.”

    The Democrats, with the help of wealthy liberal donors, have done just that by directly funding groups such as Black Lives Matter, which maliciously stir up racial tensions and make rioting their job.

    Which returns us to the question of whether America is on the verge of mass civil unrest.

    Good for Another Few Miles

    Recent riots have been encouraged by political brinksmanship and the race-baiting media, which have done their best to raise the profile of BLM and effectively make them the new official spokespersons for the minority of blacks in America who are unhappy with their overall lot in life.

    Yet, the protests are nowhere near the severity of those seen in LA in 1965 or 1992, exactly because the conditions for most black Americans have greatly improved.

    Any thinking person, no matter what race, understands there is a serious economic price for these riots, a price that is paid by hard-working people through business closures and damage to real estate values. In Baltimore, there was only $20 million in direct damage, but over 380 businesses were forced to close as a result, with only 40% expected to open back up. Tourism in the city has dropped around 15% since. That is economic pain that will extend well into the future.

    Property owners and businesspeople in Ferguson also took a big hit. Real estate prices have declined 47% since 2014, and local sales have dropped 80%. And the pain is far from over as few new businesses are going to be willing to invest in the town, given the obvious risks.

    Maybe, if politicians stopped promoting dangerous and largely untrue memes in order to gain black votes, race relations would improve as much as the conditions for most black Americans have over the past 51 years.

    In conclusion, despite what the media and politicians would have you believe, because of the broader economic gains, the US is highly unlikely to experience anything more than localized outbreaks by malcontents looking for trouble and maybe a broken-window discount at the expense of the local businesses.

    I remember when I was going to my family doctor as a child. After treating me for whatever ailed me, he would say, “Well, you’re good for another few miles.”

    Likewise, although we have seen a pick-up in unrest, America appears to be “good for another few miles.”

  • Obama Tells CIA To Prepare For Cyber War With Russia

    In what is looking more and more like a season finale of the HBO series “House of Cards” with each passing day, the Obama administration is now literally threatening a cyber war with Russia over allegations it was behind the hacking of Clinton’s emails.  According to an exclusive NBC report, the Obama administration “is contemplating an unprecedented cyber covert action” (though it’s unclear how exactly it’s covert if Biden is announcing it to the world via an interview with Chuck Todd)  against Russia, in “retaliation for alleged” interference in the American presidential election, and has asked the CIA to draft plans for a “wide-ranging “clandestine” cyber operation designed to harass and “embarrass” the Kremlin leadership.”

    So now the Obama administration is overtly leveraging the full power of the United States to intimidate foreign governments, and most likely Julian Assange, in order to maintain control of the Executive Branch of the government.  Does anyone within the mainstream media see any problems with this?  Certainly Chuck Todd and NBC do not.  And notice that even the NBC article refers to “alleged” Russian interference because not a shred of evidence has been presented to prove that senior Russian officials were actually behind the hacking of Hillary’s emails…but who needs facts when you have a complicit media eager to advance whatever propaganda is necessary to maintain power?   

    The Obama administration is contemplating an unprecedented cyber covert action against Russia in retaliation for alleged Russian interference in the American presidential election, U.S. intelligence officials told NBC News.

     

    Current and former officials with direct knowledge of the situation say the CIA has been asked to deliver options to the White House for a wide-ranging “clandestine” cyber operation designed to harass and “embarrass” the Kremlin leadership.

     

    The sources did not elaborate on the exact measures the CIA was considering, but said the agency had already begun opening cyber doors, selecting targets and making other preparations for an operation. Former intelligence officers told NBC News that the agency had gathered reams of documents that could expose unsavory tactics by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

     

    Vice President Joe Biden told “Meet the Press” moderator Chuck Todd on Friday that “we’re sending a message” to Putin and that “it will be at the time of our choosing, and under the circumstances that will have the greatest impact.”

     

    When asked if the American public will know a message was sent, the vice president replied, “Hope not.”

    Former CIA officers interviewed by NBC said that there is a long history of the White House plotting potential cyber attacks against Russia.  That said, none of them were ultimately carried out because “none of the options were particularly good, nor did we think that any of them would be particularly effective.”

    Two former CIA officers who worked on Russia told NBC News that there is a long history of the White House asking the CIA to come up with options for covert action against Russia, including cyber options — only to abandon the idea.

     

    A second former officer, who helped run intelligence operations against Russia, said he was asked several times in recent years to work on covert action plans, but “none of the options were particularly good, nor did we think that any of them would be particularly effective,” he said.

    Putin Obama

     

    Others warned that the White House has always caved on plans to follow through with cyber attacks because anything the U.S. can do against Russia, they can also do in response.  As one of the former CIA officers said, “if you are looking to mess with their networks, we can do that, but then the issue becomes, they can do worse things to us in other places.”

    “We’ve always hesitated to use a lot of stuff we’ve had, but that’s a political decision,” one former officer said. “If someone has decided, `We’ve had enough of the Russians,’ there is a lot we can do. Step one is to remind them that two can play at this game and we have a lot of stuff. Step two, if you are looking to mess with their networks, we can do that, but then the issue becomes, they can do worse things to us in other places.”

     

    Putin is almost beyond embarrassing, he said, and anything the U.S. can do against, for example, Russian bank accounts, the Russian can do in response.

     

    “Do you want to have Barack Obama bouncing checks?” he asked.

     

    Former CIA deputy director Michael Morell expressed skepticism that the U.S. would go so far as to attack Russian networks.

     

    “Physical attacks on networks is not something the U.S. wants to do because we don’t want to set a precedent for other countries to do it as well, including against us,” he said. “My own view is that our response shouldn’t be covert — it should overt, for everybody to see.”

    Here is a brieg clip of Biden discussing the “covert” planning with NBC’s Chuck Todd.

     

    If the Obama administration is willing to go to such great lengths, literally escalating tensions with another superpower, to protect their candidate from whatever it is that she’s hiding then we suspect whatever WikiLeaks has yet to release could be really good.

  • "A Pretext Is Needed": A False Flag May Be Imminent To Drag U.S. Into War

    As SHTFPlan.com's Mac Slavo warns, "The scenario is plenty likely."

    With so many bizarre events taking place leading up to the election, few Americans are even grounded in reality any more. Perhaps the powers that be, with new and ready scapegoats – like Donald Trump, ISIS or Russia – think that the populace can again be convinced to surrender their liberties and consent to war if a new attack is staged.

     

    They have done it, and they will do it again. This is standard operating procedure:

     

    All America’s Wars Begin with False Flags (and WWIII Will Too)

     

    The narrative under Hillary Clinton will be terrifying, as she destroys every last safeguard against tyranny this country has left standing. The smell of war is in the air, and every patriot should be on guard for the propaganda and salesmanship of another big lie. What do you think will happen?

    False Flag Attack Imminent in Syria as Globalists Engineer World War III

    by WakingTimes.com's Isaac Davis

    Americans are sleepwalking into World War III, and as events in Syria are shaping up it could come any moment as the biggest October surprise ever. At this stage in the conflict, we are one minor event away from all out war between the world’s major super powers, an event which would most certainly result in nuclear war. All that is needed is for the right type of false flag event to serve as provocation.

    “In naval warfare, a “false flag” refers to an attack where a vessel flies a flag other than their true battle flag before engaging their enemy. It is a trick, designed to deceive the enemy about the true nature and origin of an attack.” [Source]

    As the world pretends to be ruled by democratically elected governments, and as the world’s people feign freedom under an ever-expanding surveillance, police and warfare state, some semblance of pretext is needed in order to manufacture sufficient consent for the oligarchy’s standing plans of forcing us into expansion of the Orwellian Permanent War.

    A brief look at how this tactic has historically been used helps to predict what is certainly forthcoming in Syria, as paraphrased from James Corbett of the Corbett Report.

    1780’s – The Swedish-Russian War of 1788-1790 began when Swedish troops were intentionally dressed up as Russian troops then sent to attack their own border with Finland, effectively tricking the public into believing Russia had attacked, thereby kicking off a war will killed thousands.

     

    1931 – The Japanese army deliberately destroyed a portion of a Japanese owned railway, then blamed it on Chinese dissidents to justify the military occupation of Manchuria.

     

    1939 – Nazi war engineers dressed up Polish prisoners in Polish military uniforms and directed them to attack a German radio station. They prisoners were shot dead and their bodies left on the scene as evidence of Polish aggression, leading to Hitler’s invasion of Poland, signifying the official start of World War II.

     

    1954 – Operation Susannah was an Israeli effort to convince the British military to continue their military presence in the Suez Canal, in support of Israeli interests. Egyptian patsies were hired to detonate bombs in American and British civilian targets, then blamed on the Muslim Brotherhood.

     

    1962 – “In 1962 the US Joint Chiefs of Staff authored a document called Operation Northwoods calling for the US government to stage a series of fake attacks, including the shooting down of military or civilian US aircraft, the destruction of a US ship, sniper attacks in Washington, and other atrocities, to blame on the Cubans as an excuse for launching an invasion. President Kennedy refused to sign off on the plan and was killed in Dallas the next year.” [Source]

     

    1964 – A U.S. destroyer patrolling the Gulf of Tonkin was attacked by torpedoes, ostensibly by the North Vietnamese, thereby causing President Johnson the authorization of the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, thus beginning U.S. military involvement in Vietnam. It is now known that no attack actually occurred and that the NSA was involved in fabricating this event.

     

     

    1967 – “In June 1967 the Israelis attacked the USS Liberty, a US Navy technical research ship, off the coast of Egypt. The ship was strafed relentlessly for hours in an apparent attempt to blame the attack on Egypt and draw the Americans into the Six Day War, but amazingly the crew managed to keep it afloat. In 2007 newly released NSA intercepts confirmed that the Israelis knew they were attacking an American ship, not an Egyptian ship as their cover story has maintained.” [Source]

     

    1999 – A series of devastating bombings on civilian apartment buildings in Russia were blamed on Chechen terrorists, although Russian FSB agents were later caught using the exact same type of bombs in what was publicly called a security exercise.

     

    2001 – The 9/11 attacks in New York and Washington were blamed on 19 Al Qaeda terrorists and immediately used the pretext for beginning the Global War on Terror, of which the political doctrine for this was already in place and in play. 15 years later, information about the true nature of the attacks is still surfacing, proving that the 9/11 Commission was a whitewash to help catalyze public support still ongoing wars which were planned prior to 9/11.

    “Further, the process of transformation [of the military], even if it brings revolutionary change, is likely to be a long one, absent some catastrophic and catalyzing event––like a new Pearl Harbor.”[Source]

    Furthermore, other examples of historical significance demonstrate how minor or ambiguous events are seized on and deliberately used as propaganda to achieve the greater objective of drawing nations into war.

    1904 – The sinking of the British ocean liner The Lusitania off the coast of Ireland, which was carrying tons of war materials from America, was blamed on German u-boats, leading to a severe diplomatic row which brought the United States into World War I. Speculation remains as to what exactly happened to the Lusitania, however, the official explanation is highly suspicious, and the event was used to achieve the objectives of war financiers to broaden the conflict.

     

    1933 – A German parliamentary building in the Reichstag was set ablaze one month after Hitler’s election to the office of Chancellor. It is believed that three Bulgarian communists were to blame, however this is contentious among historians. The event was heavily propagandized by the Nazi party to galvanize support for war.

    One can also include in this list an ever-growing growing handful of European and American domestic terror attacks such as the London bombings of 2005, and the Bataclan theatre massacre of Paris in 2015. To further expand on the historical precedent of using false flag attacks to propel agendas of state aggression, many instances of assassination and military intervention into the politics of sovereign nations around the world in order create consent for militarism could be included.

    Final Thoughts

    As the U.S. continues to aid and support ISIS, Al-Nusra and other terrorist organizations in its ploy to overthrow the Assad government for the primary benefit of Israel, a false flag event signaling the beginning of a direct confrontation with Russia could come at any time. At present it looks as though the most likely scenario would be something along the lines of the USS Liberty attack, which would involve the deliberate targeting of our own forces while creating the perception of a Russian attack on U.S. or NATO components.

    The situation in Syria is ripe for exactly this kind of covert, subversive tactic.  There is historical precedence to suggest that a Syrian false flag event is imminent, therefore people the world over must prepare to resist and to survive this.

    *  *  *

    This article was written by Isaac Davis and originally published at Waking Times.

  • An overview of Edge, Edge Dilution, and the Importance of Top Talent (Video)

    By EconMatters


    We discuss some market theory, the revolution happening right now in financial markets, and the important metric of return on invested capital in this video. A sure sign that markets have passed you by is utilizing Alpha and Beta terminology.

    © EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle   

  • Donald Trump Uncensored: This Is America's "Moment Of Reckoning"

    Sometimes, you just have to listen…

    There is nothing that the political establishment wil not do; no lie they will not tell, to hold their prestige and power at your expense… and that’s what’s been happening. The Wasshington establishment – and the financial and media corporations that fund it – exists for one thing only… to protect and enrich itself.”

     

     

    For those who control the levers of power in Washington and for the global special interests – they partner with these people that don’t have your good in mind – our campaign represents a true existential threat… like they haven’t seen before. This is not simply another four-year election; this is a crossroads in the history of our civilization that will determine whether or not we, the people, reclaim control over our government.

    Turn off MSNBC, CNBC, CNN, and NBC and listen – away from the spectacle – to some uncomfortable deep state realities…

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Today’s News 14th October 2016

  • Hillary Clinton's Axis Of Evil

    Authored by Pepe Escobar, originally posted op-ed via SputnikNews.com,

    Let’s cut to the chase; Hillary Clinton is ready to go to war against Russia in Syria – with inbuilt, potentially terrifying, thermonuclear consequences.

    Anticipating an outcome of the US presidential election as a remix of the 1972 Nixon landslide, Hillary has also coined, George “Dubya” Bush-style, a remixed axis of evil: Russia, Iran and “the Assad regime”.

    That’s not even counting China, which, via “aggression” in the South China Sea, will also feature as a certified foe for the Founding Mother of the pivot to Asia.

    And if all that was not worrying enough, Turkey now seems on the path to join the axis.

    President Putin and President Erdogan met in Istanbul. Moscow positioned itself as ready to develop large-scale military-technical cooperation with Ankara.

    That includes, of course, the $20 billion, Rosatom-built, four-reactor Akkuyu nuclear power plant. And the drive to “speed up the work” on Turkish Stream – which will de facto strengthen even more Russia’s position in the European gas market, bypassing Ukraine for good, while sealing Ankara’s position as a key East-West energy crossroads.

    In addition, both Moscow and Ankara back UN Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura’s position that “moderate rebels” (the Beltway’s terminology) holding eastern Aleppo hostage must be eradicated.

    The geopolitical game-changer is self-evident. As much as Erdogan may be a whirling political dervish, impossible to fathom and trust, while Putin is a master of the strategic long game, Moscow’s and Ankara’s interests tend to converge in the New Great Game; and that spells out closer integration in the dawn of the Eurasian Century.

    Quite a cup of hemlock for Hillary Clinton, who has already equated Putin with Hitler.

    Regime change or hot war?

    In the appalling spectacle that turned out to be round two of the interminable Trump/Clinton cage match, Donald Trump once again made a rational point – expressing his wish for a normalized working relationship with Russia. Yet that is absolute anathema for the War Party, as in the neocon/neoliberalcon nebulae in the Beltway-Wall Street axis.

    The Clinton (Cash) Machine-controlled Democrats once again condemned Trump as a tool of Putin while bewildered Republicans condemned Trump because he goes against “mainstream Republican thinking”.

    Here’s what Trump said; “I don’t like Assad at all, but Assad is killing ISIS. Russia is killing ISIS and Iran is killing ISIS.”

    Trump’s outlook on Southwest Asia relies on only one vector; destroy ISIS/ISIL/Daesh. That’s what adviser and former Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) director, retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, has been infiltrating into Trump’s notoriously short attention span.

    Flynn may have admitted on the record that ISIS/ISIL/Daesh’s progress was a “willful” decision taken by the Obama administration. Yet in his disjointed book Field of Fight, Flynn insists that, “the Russians haven’t been very effective at fighting jihadis on their own territory”, are “in cahoots with the Iranians”, and “the great bulk of their efforts are aimed at the opponents of the Assad regime.”

    This is a neocon mantra; unsurprisingly, the co-author of Flynn’s book is neocon Michael Ledeen.

    From dodgy American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP) armchair “experts” to former counselors at the State Department, they all subscribe to the laughable view that the remixed axis of evil – now fully adopted by Hillary – is useless against jihadis; the good guys doing the difficult work are “the US-led coalition”. And damn those who dare criticizing the “relative moderates” backed by the CIA.

    What Trump said is anathema not only for establishment Republicans who despise Obama for not fighting against the Hillary-adopted remixed axis of evil. The real mortal sin is that it “disregards” core US foreign policy bipartisan assumptions held to be as sacred as the Bible.

    Thus the success of the neocon Ash Carter-led Pentagon in bombing the Kerry-Lavrov ceasefire deal which would imply coordinated airstrikes against both ISIS/ISIL/Daesh and the Front for the Conquest of Syria, formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, a.k.a. al Qaeda in Syria.

    Neocons and mainstream Republicans blame lame duck Team Obama for the “unholy reliance” on Russia and Iran, while neoliberalcons blame Russia outright. And high in the altar of righteousness, hysteria rules, with the neocon president of the NED http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article45643.htm calling for the US government to “summon the will” to pull a Putin regime change.

    Ready to go nuclear?

    Hillary Clinton continues to insist the US is not at war with Islam. The US is de facto at war in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Pakistan’s tribal areas; involved in covert war in Iran; and has totally destroyed Libya. It’s not hard to do the math.

    In parallel, the deafening talk about Washington now advancing a Plan C in Syria is nonsense. There has never been a Plan C; only Plan A, which was to draw Russia into another Afghanistan. It did not work with the controlled demolition of Ukraine. And it will not work in Syria, as Moscow is willing to supply plenty of air and missile power but no boots on the ground of any consequence. That’s a matter for the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), Iran and its Shi’ite militias, and Hezbollah.

    Ash Carter has threatened Russia with “consequences”. After blowing up the ceasefire, the Pentagon – supported by the Joint Chiefs of Staff – now is peddling “potential strikes” on Syria’s air force to “punish the regime” for what the Pentagon actually did; blow up the ceasefire. One can’t make this stuff up.

    Major-General Igor Konashenkov, Russia’s Defense Ministry spokesman, sent a swift message to “our colleagues in Washington”; think twice if you believe you can get away with launching a “shadow” hot war against Russia. Russia will target any stealth/unidentified aircraft attacking Syrian government targets – and they will be shot down.

    The only serious question then is whether an out of control Pentagon will force the Russian Air Force – false flag and otherwise – to knock out US Air Force fighter jets, and whether Moscow has the fire power to take out each and every one of them.

    So in this three-month window representing the “death throes” of the Obama era, before the likely enthronization of the Queen of War, the question is whether the Pentagon will risk launching WWIII because “Aleppo is falling”.

    Afterwards, things are bound to get even more lethal. The US government is holding open a first-strike nuclear capacity against Russia. Hillary firmly supports it, as Trump made clear he “would not do first-strike”. The prospect of having axis of evil practitioner Hillary Clinton with her fingers on the nuclear button must be seen as the most life-and-death issue in this whole circus.

  • The Psychology of Trading: Learning How to Handle Success (Video)

    By EconMatters


    In this video we discuss the Psychology of trading, learning how to handle success and failure in a more reasoned, rational manner. It really boils down to good decision making in Financial Markets.

    © EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle   

  • What Exactly Is Agenda 21?

    Via DaisyLuther.com,

    When most folks hear the words “Agenda 21” they have one of three responses:

    1. Huh? What’s that?

     

    2. Oh yay! It’ll turn the world into Utopia and global warming will stop and life will be rainbows and unicorns again!

     

    3. It’s a plan to remove personal liberty and move us closer to a one-world government. Where the heck is my tinfoil?

    Some folks don’t even believe it exists,  others think it exists but is a good thing turned into a nasty conspiracy theory, and the majority are blissfully oblivious. Even though many people don’t realize it, we’re all being nudged toward an Agenda-21 ruled world. It’s easy, too, because it promises a green world of lollipops and rainbows and most of it will be “free.”

    To put it as simply as possible, Agenda 21 is world domination with a warm, fuzzy glow. Once you understand it, you’ll never look at “regulations” the same way again.

    Here’s how it all started.

    In 1992, peace-loving tree huggers at the UN devised a plan for the world. That’s right – the friendly folks at the UN’s Division for Sustainable Development (DSD) created a master plan for ALL of us.

    Agenda 21 is a comprehensive plan of action to be taken globally, nationally, and locally by organizations of the United Nations System, Governments, and Major Groups in every area in which human impacts on the environment.

    So, let’s see if we understand this correctly.

    • A plan of action. Got it.

    • To be taken globally…okay – everyone must participate.

    • In every area in which human impacts on the environment….yep, that covers everyone and everything in the entire world.

    It’s a warm fuzzy way to take over the world! Group hug, anyone?

    Agenda 21 is a 350-page action plan divided into 40 chapters. It was developed at a summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. The “21” in Agenda 21 refers to the 21st Century. You can read the entire unsettling plot HERE but the general idea is that the group of “leaders” intends to have a collective finger in every pie on the planet.

    I.  SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS

    The first section of the pact plan deals with the people of the world. Particularly, the DSD wants to “help” those in Third World countries live “better”. They’ll be taught:

    • How to make more money by putting everyone to work in perfect accordance with the goals of the Agenda

    • How to maintain their health through vaccinations and modern medicine

    • How to govern themselves in accordance with the plan

    • How to control their populations

    • All in all, they’ll learn how to make decisions that will concur with the ideals of the Agenda.

    II.  CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT OF RESOURCES FOR DEVELOPMENT

    This section includes protection of the atmosphere, land, mountains, oceans, and fresh waters – everything in the environment of a given country. This means that historical ways of using these resources could be outlawed – changing the basic ways of life for the indigenous people to make way for “progress” and “sustainability”.  This gives control of all natural resources to the good folks of the DSD.

    Section 2 (specifically Chapter 9, subsection #8) also uses the unproven science of global warming to further the controls placed on the acquisition and use of resources. This section of the articles of Agenda 21 confers vast taxation on resources while allowing huge companies to use the green ideology to receive carbon credits, reallocating money from the power to the rich under a cloak of green hypocrisy.

    ….the United Nations is demanding $76 trillion from the first world over the next 40 years to encourage the development of “green” technologies in the third world. The defense of such a reckless agenda has rested on the unwarranted claim that the globe was hovering on the precipice of environmental devastation. “Green” ideology has become the bulwark of older agendas: The nations of the West must end their own prosperity, because that is only “fair” — and it necessary to save the world from Capitalist greed.  from The New American

    By specifically outlining the management of all natural resources, it disallows the use of them for any but the 1% in power, effectively keeping people from farming, fishing, mining, or otherwise harvesting the innate supplies provided by their environments.

    III.  STRENGTHENING THE ROLE OF MAJOR GROUPS

    The language in this section implies empowerment of women, children, unions, farmers, and indigenous peoples.  However, if you dig deeper you’ll discover that all of this equality actually means

    • the abolition of personal property

    • the demise of rural living

    • mandatory birth (population) control

    • the “redevelopment” of cities

    So, basically, Communism 101.

    They intend to warehouse people in small areas for a multi-fold goal. It will make them easier to control, easier to poison and/or chemically sterilize through managed food and water supplies, and will remove personal ownership of natural resources.

    The sleight-of-hand empowerment will actually take away the rights of families by disallowing ownership of personal property, curtailing their physical liberty by making all transportation public, and providing a pro-Agenda education/brainwashing for all.

    IV.  MEANS OF IMPLEMENTATION

    This section describes how to get the whole world on board the happy train to Agenda 21-land.

    • Redistribution of financial resources (i.e., taking it away from some and sharing it with others)

    • Technology (public transit, “equal” distribution of energy usage, monitoring of behaviors through big brother technologies)

    • Science and environmentalism (removing people from rural areas to “save” the natural resources from pollution and mismanagement)

    • Re-education (brainwashing with propaganda)

    • Restructuring of local governments (installing puppet leaders)

    This will be presented as Utopian, but really, it will turn everyone into carefully warehoused slaves with just enough food and supplies to make those who don’t think too deeply, content.

    Agenda 21: Not Just for 3rd World Countries

    All of this peace and love isn’t just for developing countries. The principles of Agenda 21 are insinuating themselves into the lives of North Americans and Europeans at warp speed. I’ll bet when you read this list, you can see dozens of ways this plan has begun to take root right in your own backyard.

    • With the decline of the American farm, people are being funneled into the cities in search of work.

    • With the decline of the economy, fewer people can afford private transportation and are therefore limited to the places that public transit will take them.

    • Support of the local down-trodden is geared to further incite class warfare.

    • Separation of families through child protection agencies, Big Brother parenting,  mandatory public schools at younger and younger ages, and the dumbing down of our education system is planned to break down our society even further.

    • Publicly funded health care  (cough*Obamacare* cough) will dictate toxic vaccinations, secretive sterilization, eugenics of the elderly and less-productive members of society, and mandated birth control.

    AGENDA 21 IS FULL-SPECTRUM DOMINATION BY THE 1%. 

    Nothing has been left out.

    • It guarantees both birth control and death control.

    • It promises the basic essentials of life in return for submission.

    • It exchanges critical thinking for re-education and brainwashing.

    • It destroys the epicenter of the family, society, and culture, allowing only one way to live. It groups the population into small contained areas to be more easily controlled.

    • It takes away from some to give to others who will be more easily managed by the promise of a full belly and a warm shelter.

    It’s a parasitical representation of the 1%, feeding on the 99.

    Agenda 21.
    Divide.
    Dumb down.
    Conquer.

    And it’s only going to get worse.

  • An Inside Look At Two "Unrelated" Banker Suicides Reveals A Fascinating Rabbit Hole

    It has been nearly four years since one of the most infamous, and still largely unexplained, banker “suicides” took place, the first in a series of many: we are talking about the death of the director of communications at Monte dei Paschi di Siena, David Rossi, who allegedly jumped to his death on March 6, 2013.

    Since this event has largely faded away from the public consciousness here is a quick recap: David Rossi, who was the head of communications for Monte dei Paschi di Siena bank, which was founded in 1472 and which is currently seeking to finalize its third bailout since the financial crisis, died after falling – or being pushed – from a third floor window of the bank’s headquarters in a 14th century palazzo in the Tuscan city of Siena.

    His death in March 2013 came at a time when the bank was pushed close to the brink of collapse over a scandal involving the loss of hundreds of millions of euros through risky investments.

    While a quickly cobbled together post-mortem found that Rossi, 51, had killed himself, his family strongly suspected that he was murdered because he knew too much about the bank’s shady financial deals. As a result, earlier this year, prosecutors in Siena, where the bank is based, ordered his body to be exhumed and for the trajectory of his fall to be simulated, in an attempt to discover exactly how he died.

    The death itself was suspicious: while Rossi fell, or was pushed, from his office at exactly 7:59:23 pm on March 6, 2013, and landed in a darkened alleyway, he did not die immediately – he was alive for 22 minutes, investigators believe.

    What made Rossi’s death even more puzzling is that security camera footage, released years after his death, showed two shadowy figures appear at the end of the alley, apparently checking that there was no chance he would survive.

    The scandalous video emerged in public this June, when the Post’s Michael Gray used it as the basis for an article asking “Why are so many bankers committing suicide?” For those who have not seen the 4 minute clip, we present it below in its entirety.

    Among the oddities revealed at the site of the alleged suicide is that the executive had bruises and scratches on his arms and wrists which suggested that he may have been gripped forcibly by one or two assailants before being pushed out of the window. On the back of his head was a deep, L-shaped gash suggesting he may have been hit with a blunt object before falling from the window.

    Three apparent suicide notes were found crumpled in a bin in his study, but Antonella Tognazzi, his widow, said they contained phrases that her husband would never have used. One of them said: “Ciao, Toni, my love. I’m sorry.”

    “He never called me Toni, he always called me Antonella,” his widow, who has long contended that her husband did not kill himself but was murdered, said. The recent reopening

    A handwriting expert who analyzed the notes said they seemed to have been written under duress. Another unexplained element is the fact that 33 minutes after Mr Rossi fell from his office window, a call was made on his mobile phone.

    At exactly the same moment, the CCTV footage showed an object falling onto the ground and landing a few feet from the body; it was later found to be Mr Rossi’s watch, minus the strap.

    To be sure, the recent emergence of the video has somehwat placated Rossi’s widow, Antonella Tognazzi, who got her wish for a re-examination into the circumstances surrounding Rossi’s death:  “We’ve been waiting a long time for the investigation to be reopened,” said Ms Tognazzi early this year quoted by the Telegraph. “It’s what we had been hoping for – it’s an important sign on the part of the judiciary. I have never believed he committed suicide.”

    The plot thickens when one digs into the details revealed by the footage captured on the surveillance video.

    The footage shows the three-story fall didn’t kill Rossi instantly. For almost 20 minutes, the banker lay on the dimly lit cobblestones, occasionally moving an arm and leg. As he lay dying, two murky figures appear. Two men appear and one walks over to gaze at the banker. He offers no aid or comfort and doesn’t call for help before turning around and calmly walking out of the alley.

    Two minutes into the clip, Gray also notes that “Italian authorities have yet to identify these two men.”

    Following the Post article, there was a scramble by the Italian press to explain that the two men had indeed been identified, and to suggest that the local police knew, all along who they were. In a statement, the prosecutor of Siena said that the video on the fall of David Rossi “being circulated on the internet corresponds to the one already acquired during the investigation”. Moreover, the two men seen near Rossi’s body in the video footage were already interviewed in the first phase of the investigation.

    “For final confirmation and to avoid any further speculation, we have decided to re-interview the two men in the video as part of the new investigation,” wrote the prosecutor. The two people in question are Giancarlo Filippone and Bernardo Mingrone. “The first, seen wearing a padded jacket, was a colleague and friend of David Rossi, while Mingrone, who is wearing a coat and remains in the background, was at the time a senior executive in the MPS finance department.”

    Courtesy of the police inquest into the suicide can confirm the two individuals seen in the back alley where Rossi died, were indeed his former coworkers Giancarlo Filippone a manager at Monte Paschi and a friend of Rossi, and Bernardo Mingrone, the CFO of Monte Paschi.

    The police report notes the following testimony from Filippone, as recounted by Il Fatto Quotidiano: “I came from work at 18 and later I was contacted by the wife of Rossi who had not heard from her husband and begged me to go and call him. I sent him a text message at 19:41 (…) and got no response, so after waiting a bit I went to the office at 20:30 and when I entered the room I saw the window open, I looked below and saw David’s lifeless body.”

    Mingrone’s testimony was also recorded: “At 20:40 on my way out I was talking on the phone, and just as I was in the hallway on the ground floor of the building heading towards the main exit, I met another man (Filippone) gesticulating dramatically and confused. The concierge mouthed the following words: “David Rossi” then “window”, then after hanging up the phone i met with Rossi’s colleague (Filippone, ed) who told me that David Rossi was thrown from the window. I asked the two where Rossi’s office was located and to accompany me there asking if they had called an ambulance. I entered the office and I looked out the window seeing the body on the ground; at that point I called 118 (emergency sevices) since I had been told that no one had called previously.”

    That’s the official version; the actual video evidence demonstrates no panic, and no distressed among the two individuals, who calmly walk up to the dying body and then calmly walk away. The public prosector found little in the circumstances suspect, and as he detailed on June 17, there was no mystery as to the presence of the two men in the alley, where Rossi was either pushed or had jumped on his own.

    Where some confusion does emerge, however, is that according to a different recount of events that night, Rossi did in fact speak to his wife Antonella whom he called at 19:02, one hour prior to the deadly fall, in which he did not speak as like someone who is going to commit suicide. To the contrary they were making dinner plans: “I will be home at 19.30. I already bought everything you need. But first I need to take the meatballs that I ordered for dinner. See you later.” He would never make it home as he was dead shortly after. Adding to the confusion is that after his death a number was typed on his cell: 409909 which, according to his lawyer, may have been a computer access code. It is unclear what was being accessed or who typed in the code.

    But the question about the presence of the Monte Paschi CFO at the crime (or suicide) scene, is just one part of the mystery.

    Two days prior to Rossi’s death, the communications director sent a cryptic
    email to the bank’s CEO, Fabrizio Viola according to Rossi’s wife. “I want guarantees of not being overwhelmed by this thing,” he wrote. “We would have to do right away, before tomorrow. Can you help me?” As the post previously asked,”it remains a mystery what specifically Rossi thought could “overwhelm” him just before his death, but many have speculated that he was referring to Monte Paschi’s troubled financial position.”

    Incidentally, Fabrizio Viola stepped down as Monte Paschi CEO just one month ago, as the bank was deep in the middle of its latest, third, bailout process which however according to press reports has met substantial procedural hurdles and may not be completed, with speculation a debt for equity swap may be required to facilitate the bank’s rescue.

    Furthermore, Rossi was a close confidant of former bank Chairman, Joseph Mussari, who was the driving force behind Monte Paschi’s 2008 $13 billion purchase of Banca Antonveneta from Spain’s Santander. Many banking analysts agreed at the time that Monte Paschi had overpaid for the acqusition, which incidentally was financed by Deutsche Bank.


    Giuseppe Mussari poses at the ABI headquarters in Rome July 27, 2010

    Adding to the mystery, in October 2014, an Italian court sentenced Mussari to three years and six months in jail for misleading regulators in relation to a 2009 derivative trade with Nomura that prosecutors said was used to conceal losses. The court in Siena, where Italy’s third-biggest lender is based, also sentenced former chief executive Antonio Vigni and ex-finance boss Gianluca Baldassarri to the same jail term. Prosecutors had asked for a seven-year jail sentence for Mussari and six years for Vigni and Baldassarri.

    Prosecutors had accused Mussari, Vigni and Baldassarri of hiding a document known as a mandate agreement, which prosecutors and regulators said made clear that the derivative, called Alexandria, was linked to the acquisition of 3 billion euros worth of long-term Italian government bonds by Monte dei Paschi. The link between the two trades meant they should have received different accounting treatment, which would have shown heavy losses. Alexandria and two other derivatives trades ultimately forced Monte Paschi to restate its accounts and book a loss of 730 million euros on its 2012 results.

    New management at the bank, now working on a plan to fill the 2.1-billion-euro capital hole, has said it only discovered the existence of the mandate agreement when it was found in a safe in Vigni’s former office in October 2012, more than three years after it was signed.

    If so far this all appears very confusing, is because it indeed is.

    Where it gets even more confusing is that in January of this year, three executives from Deutsche Bank, which as we now know was very intimately involved with some of the illegal derivative transactions undertaken by Monte Pasci, were also implicated civilly, including Michele Faissola, the head of Private & Asset Wealth Management at Deutsche Bank— charged by Italian authorities with colluding with the troubled Monte Paschi in falsifying accounts, manipulating the market and obstructing justice.

    Prosecutors have been reconstructing how Monte Paschi’s former managers misrepresented the lender’s finances in the years before it sought a government bailout. The misrepresentation first came to light in January 2013 when Bloomberg reported that Monte Paschi used a transaction with Deutsche Bank, the infamous Santorini (profiled here), to mask losses from an earlier derivative contract. The bank the same year had to restate its accounts

    Faissola denied the charges.


    Michele Faissola, head of Private & Asset Wealth Management

    Faissola, whose roles included overseeing rates and commodities, was put in charge of Deutsche Bank’s combined asset and wealth management division in 2012 when Anshu Jain and Juergen Fitschen took over as co-chief executive officers of the Frankfurt-based lender. Deutsche Bank on Oct. 18 said Faissola would leave after a transition period; his departure came just a few months after the sudden resignation of Co-CEOs Anshu Jain and Jurgen Fitschen in June 2015; it is said that Faissola was their close protege.

    As a reminder, earlier this month, the recently troubled Deutsche Bank was itself charged by Italy for market manipulation and creating false accounts. Additionally, the name Faissole emerged once again, when as Bloomberg reported, six current and former managers of Deutsche Bank, including Michele Faissola, Michele Foresti and Ivor Dunbar, were charged in Milan for colluding to falsify the accounts of Italy’s third-biggest bank, Monte Paschi and manipulate the market.

    Here is where things get interesting.

    Michele Faissola was a coworker of one William S. Broeksmit. By way of background, Broeksmit had two stints at Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank, first from 1996 to 2001, then from 2008 until his retirement in September 2013, having previously worked at Merrill Lynch. When he rejoined the bank in 2008 it was in a newly created position, head of portfolio risk optimization. In 2012, as Jain and Fitschen prepared to take over as CEOs, the duo advanced Broeksmit’s name to become the new chief risk officer. The bank retreated on his nomination after German financial regulator BaFin raised concerns that Broeksmit’s lack of experience managing a large number of employees.

    Broeksmit worked as a consultant from his retriement until Janury 28, 2014… when the body of the 58 year old was found hanging in his London flat from a dog leash tied to the top of a door. He had just commited suicide..

    As we reported at the time, financial papers had been strewn about the scene of his suicide, and on a dog bed near the body were a number of notes to family and friends. One was addressed to Deutsche Bank CEO Anshu Jain, with an apology. That note offered no clue as to the reason he was sorry.

    And this is where the story gets even more fascinating: the abovementioned Michele Faissola, who was instrumental in helping Monte Paschi arrange its various derivative deals with Deutsche Bank, was the first to arrive at the gruesome scene of Broeksmit’s suicide in 2014.

     When he arrived at the South Kensington home, he immediately began going through the bank papers and read the suicide notes.


    The west London home of William S. Broeksmit where he was found dead in 2014

    We know all this because it was recounted to us by Val Broeksmit, the son of the deceased high-ranking Deutsche Bank banker. Val also who provided us the police report of David Rossi’s death, and various other key notes as he has tried to piece together over the years how and why his father committed suicide.

    While there is no evidence Faissola was involved in any misconduct related to Broeksmit’s death, Val wonders what, if anything, Faissola had been searching for.

    So do we.

    The reason why this story, which has seen bits and pieces float around over the past 3 years, is reemerging is because now that both the insolvent Monte Paschi is in the news for its ongoing third bailout, not to mention the significantly troubled Deutsche Bank is also a daily source of market stress, the fact that two bankers who were intimately familiar and certainly involved in many of the transactions between Deutsche Bank and Monte Paschi, and which have been deemed illegal and are being prosecuted by the Italian state, have committed suicide, is worth bringing to the public’s attention.

    * * *

    What is fascinating, is not only how interconnected the fates of Deutsche Bank and Monte Paschi have been over the years – two banks that have each seen a dramatic, high ranking suicide in recent years – but also how far the political process has pushed to preserving a cone of silence surrounding these events: recall that on September 1, Milan prosecutors filed a request to shelve a probe for alleged market manipulation and false accounting against the chief executive of Monte Paschi, Fabrizio Viola, and the bank’s former chairman, Alesandro Profumo; a probe that was launched just several weeks prior. As noted above, Viola quietly resigned from his post shortly after the announcement.

    Most importantly, while investigators on both the UK and Italian side have been quick to dismiss the banker deaths as open and shut cases of suicide, courtesy of Broeksmit’s son we have access to certain documents which we are confident will reveal not just how deep the rabbit hole truly goes, linking the oldest and biggest European banks through two still largely unexplained suicides, but also what is hidden behind Deutsche Bank’s mirrored facade.

  • Leaked Emails Reveals Clinton Campaign Plotted Supreme Court Threat Over Obamacare

    Remember back in 2012 when the Supreme Court narrowly upheld the Obamacare mandate with a 5-4 decision but only after Judge Roberts, a Bush appointee, seemingly parted with his conservative counterparts on the bench to effectively, single-handedly preserve perhaps the most destructive piece of legislation in American history (if not, we wrote about it here)?  Many people were shocked by Judge Roberts’ decision and subsequently alleged that it was driven more by politics than his interpretation of the Constitution. 

    Turns out those people were proven right today as a new Podesta email confirms that the Obama administration applied political pressure on Roberts to sway his decision:  “it was pretty critical that the President threw the gauntlet down last time on the Court…that was vital to scaring Roberts off.”

    While it’s fairly disturbing that the Clinton team would flippantly admit such things, what’s even worse is that they plotted to use Obama’s same strategy of applying political pressure on the Supreme Court in 2015 to overturn “King v Burwell” which also threatened Obamacare’s future.

    The email below from Neera Tanden, clearly shows Clinton staffers colluding with the President of the Center for American Progress on a scheme to apply political pressure on the Supreme Court to overturn the challenge. 

    Supreme Court

     

    Subsequently, both Palmieri, Clinton’s Communications Director, and Fallon, Press Secretary, agreed with the strategy. 

    Supreme Court

    Supreme Court

     

    Of course, the Supreme Court ultimately ruled in favor of the Obama administration with Justice Roberts writing the majority opinion.  Meanwhile, the late Justice Scalia wrote the dissenting opinion in which he said the following:

    Words no longer have meaning if an Exchange that is not established by a State is “established by the State.” It is hard to come up with a clearer way to limit tax credits to state Exchanges than to use the words “established by the State.” And it is hard to come up with a reason to include the words “by the State” other than the purpose of limiting credits to state Exchanges.”

    In hindsight, aren’t we all so lucky that Justice Roberts sold his soul to uphold such an amazing piece of legislation?  For his efforts, we’ve all received the benefits of worse healthcare coverage for twice the price.

  • Obama To Decide Friday On Military Action In Syria

    Two weeks ago when the US broke off bilateral relations with Russia over the ongoing Syrian proxy war, we reported that as part of America’s “next steps” would be a discussion on military options. As Reuters reported then, the “discussions were being held at “staff level,” and have yet to produce any recommendations to President Barack Obama, who has resisted ordering military action against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the country’s multi-sided civil war. “The president has asked all of the agencies to put forward options, some familiar, some new, that we are very actively reviewing,” Blinken said. “When we are able to work through these in the days ahead we’ll have an opportunity to come back and talk about them in detail.”

    Fast forward to today, when as Reuters once again reports, the time has come for the US to make a decision: on Friday President Barack Obama and his top foreign policy advisers are expected to meet to consider their military and other options in Syria as Syrian and Russian aircraft continue to pummel Aleppo and other targets.

    The tensions here are well known: some of the more hawkish “top officials” told Reuters that the United States must act more forcefully in Syria or “risk losing what influence it still has over moderate rebels and its Arab, Kurdish and Turkish allies in the fight against Islamic State.” Naturally, this means that one set of options includes direct U.S. military action such as air strikes on Syrian military bases, munitions depots or radar and anti-aircraft bases.

    That is also the scenario which General Joseph Dunford warned may lead to war with Russia. Indeed, the quoted said one danger of such action is that Russian and Syrian forces are often co-mingled, “raising the possibility of a direct confrontation with Russia that Obama has been at pains to avoid.” This is also known as the “world war” scenario.

    Luckily, there are options.

    One alternative, U.S. officials said, is allowing allies to provide U.S.-vetted rebels with more sophisticated weapons, although not shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles, “which Washington fears could be used against Western airliners.” Like, for example, what happened above the Donestk region during the peak of the Ukraine proxy war in 2014.

    As Reuters adds, Friday’s planned meeting is the latest in a long series of internal debates – which have so far achieved nothing but escalate the situation which fast approaches a point of no return – about what, if anything, to do to end a 5-1/2 year civil war that has killed at least 300,000 people and displaced half the country’s population. According to insiders, the ultimate aim of any new action could be to “bolster the battered moderate rebels so they can weather what is now widely seen as the inevitable fall of rebel-held eastern Aleppo to the forces of Russian- and Iranian-backed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.” The question is whether it was also “bolster” al-Qaeda linked jihadists whom the US has been supporting for the past several months as a result of the perverse merger of “moderate” rebel forces in Syria.

    Apparently, there is also an element of pride:

    It also might temper a sense of betrayal among moderate rebels who feel Obama encouraged their uprising by calling for Assad to go but then abandoned them, failing even to enforce his own “red line” against Syria’s use of chemical weapons.

     

    This, in turn, might deter them from migrating to Islamist groups such as the Nusra Front, which the United States regards as Syria’s al Qaeda branch. The group in July said it had cut ties to al Qaeda and changed its name to Jabhat Fatah al-Sham.

    In other words, having started the proxy war in Syria, with every passing day that Obama fails to resolve it – while ideally avoid a world war with Russia – is a day that more and more “moderate rebels” are likely to openly “migrate” to jihadist extremists, with all of the latest US military equipment so generously provided to them by the administration.

    There is also hope that just like in 2013, Kerry and Lavrov will somehow cobble together another last minute peace agreement. The U.S. and Russian foreign ministers will meet in Lausanne, Switzerland on Saturday to resume their failed effort to find a diplomatic solution, possibly joined by their counterparts from Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Iran, but U.S. officials were said to have voiced little hope for success.

    Complicating matters, however, is that as we reported this morning, the US is now officially engaged in another regional conflict, after US warships fired ballistic missiles targeting Yemen radar stations in proximity to the critical Bab al-Mandab Straight.

    Earlier Thursday the United States launched cruise missiles at three coastal radar sites in areas of Yemen controlled by Iran-aligned Houthi forces, retaliating after failed missile attacks this week on a U.S. Navy destroyer, U.S. officials said.

    There is also the question of what to do in Iraq, where officials are debating whether government forces will need more U.S. support both during and after their campaign to retake Mosul, Islamic State’s de facto capital in the country. Some officials argue the Iraqis now cannot retake the city without significant help from Kurdish peshmerga forces, as well as Sunni and Shi’ite militias, and that their participation could trigger religious and ethnic conflict in the city.

    * * *

    For now, the best news is that according to Reuters, US officials said they consider it unlikely that Obama will order U.S. air strikes on Syrian government targets, and they stressed that he may not make any decisions at the planned meeting of his National Security Council. However, that will only be the case should the US not be further humiliated in Syria, and – of course – all bets are off if and when Obama is replaced, especially if his successor is a well-known warmonger, directly and indirectly responsible for much of the unstable geopolitical situation across most of the region.
     

  • Global Elites Are Getting Ready To Blame You For The Coming Financial Crash

    Submitted by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    Those people that have any doubts about where the narrative is headed for global economic stability simply have not been paying attention lately.

    As I pointed out in my pre-Brexit referendum article, Brexit: Global Trigger Event, Fake Out Or Something Else?, the story being scripted by the globalists is one of the “failures and crimes" of conservative movements. I predicted that the Brexit would pass based on this language used by international financiers and elites leading up to the vote.

    The vast majority of analysts in the mainstream and in the alternative media refused to acknowledge the possibility that a successful Brexit actually works in FAVOR of the globalists, because it provides them a perfect scapegoat for a financial crisis that has been broiling for years and is now ready to burst into flames. I find still that many people will not dare to consider the idea that a successful conservative resurgence is actually part of the plan for globalist institutions. Many argue that the elites just don’t have that kind of pervasive control over the system, or that I am attributing “too much power and ability” to them.

    I find this argument rather naive but also interesting, because many of the people that claim the elites do not have such influence were also the same people that argued before the Brexit that the elites would “never allow” the U.K. referendum to pass. So, do they have extensive influence, or don’t they?  This kind of selective blindness to the game being played prevents a whole host of otherwise intelligent people from grasping reality.

    These folks need to finally admit to themselves that they were half right; the globalists would not allow the passage of the Brexit, UNLESS, a successful Brexit actually works in their favor.

    In my post-Brexit analysis I said that the meme of bumbling and destructive conservatives and “populists” would continue into the U.S. election, and so far it would seem this is exactly the case. In numerous mainstream articles globalists have been openly telling us exactly what is about to happen.

    I find that the same naivety that developed during the Brexit campaign has also developed around the Trump campaign. Too many in the liberty movement will not entertain the idea that a Trump win is in the cards. Yet, the elites are using the same language in reference to the Trump campaign that they used before and after the Brexit.

    Bloomberg’s latest report on the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank showcase numerous warnings by the elites:

    The global economy has benefited tremendously from globalization and technological change,” the IMF’s top advisory panel said in a communique released on Saturday after meeting in Washington. “However, the outlook is increasingly threatened by inward-looking policies, including protectionism, and stalled reforms.”

     

    The IMF warned in its latest economic outlook that rising political tensions over open markets and free trade could undermine a recovery already lacking a growth engine.”

     

    In a rebuke to those advocating a turn away from trade, the members of the IMF panel redoubled their commitment to “maintain economic openness and reinvigorate global trade as a critical means to boost global growth.”

    Barron’s reiterates the predictive programming, insinuating that a loss of faith in globalism and the financial elites will lead to disaster.

    Leaders gathered at the International Monetary Fund/World Bank annual meeting didn’t mention Donald Trump by name this week, but they warned the anti-trade and populist movements fueling his presidential campaign, as well as Brexit, could further slow already anemic economic growth.”

     

    “…Populist movements have not fallen on deaf ears, with German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble noting during a panel on the global economy that: “More and more, people don’t trust their elites. They don’t trust their economic leaders, and they don’t trust their political leaders.”

    Globalists are telling us what is about to happen.

    I continue to hold to the position I always have — that Donald Trump is going to be ALLOWED into the White House, and that this will be a prelude to economic crisis. The stage is being set for a grand finale to our ongoing financial collapse. The great villain behind the whole disaster will be revealed, and we will be told that the villain is us.

    By “us" I mean conservative movements in general, though, the mainstream media and globalist spokesmen refer to us more often today as “populists", or maybe "deplorables". Those people who think this brand of “conspiracy” is too far fetched because it requires an inordinate level of political and economic control have not really thought the situation through.

    Fact – central banks and international financiers have already created the conditions necessary for economic instability. Fact – these same elites have staved off a larger or more immediate collapse over the past eight years through the use of fiat stimulus measures, market rigging and the manipulation of public perception. Fact – the elites can easily initiate an immediate collapse if they wish by simply refusing to prop up the system any longer. Fact – the elites have showcased the ability to stifle conservative movements in the past through interference and co-option (Tea Party, anyone?). Fact – they can also give conservative movements an opportunity to gain momentum by removing some of this interference.

    The truth is, at this point globalists do not need expansive or intricate control over the system in order to cause a crisis or to place conservatives in the historical hot seat. All they have to do is step aside and let the train wreck happen. And, of course, they have to position themselves as prognosticators and saviors once the crisis event occurs.

    The argument also arises that “people would never take the bait;” that the masses will not be fooled by the banking cabal into scapegoating conservatives for a crash the elites created. One can only hope. However, possession is nine-tenths of the law in the minds of many, and the mainstream has already conditioned the public with the notion that the mere presence of anti-globalist conservatives in positions of political authority will negatively affect market psychology.

    Of course, this notion relies on the admission of certain truths. For example, the globalists would have to admit that the fiscal system they have held together is so tenuous and fraudulent that it depends solely on false public perception and false investor assumptions. In order to blame conservatives for the destruction of the global economy, the elites will have to tell the truth about the frailty of the system before they can lie about who broke it.

    This may not matter. When people are facing national or international calamity with the potential to hurt them personally, critical thinking and logic tend to go out the window.

    There is also the power of distraction to occupy the minds of the masses while a crisis is taking shape, and what could be more distracting than the Trump vs. Clinton U.S. election? I have to say, I don’t think I have ever witnessed or seen a historical accounting of an election more psychotic than the election of 2016. It is truly the most divisive event in over a century, and this is why I consistently compare it to the Brexit referendum.

    The tone is very much the same, with citizens on the Left side of the political spectrum being lured into rallying in support of globalism as if it is a prerequisite to peace and harmony, while citizens on the Right side of the spectrum are portrayed as knuckle dragging isolationist barbarians hell-bent on urinating in the punch bowl and ruining everyone’s global prosperity party.

    Brexit supporters were painted as older, selfish, potentially racist and out of touch with the changing times. Brexit opponents were painted as young, educated and victimized by older generations taking away the supposed future benefits of globalism.

    Trump supporters are labeled as older, mostly white-centric, uneducated and fearful of the changing times. They just “don’t get” that it’s 2016. Trump opponents are elevated as the academic and worldly class battling to prevent another Hitler.

    During the lead up to the U.K. referendum, polls indicated a wide margin in favor of the anti-Brexit crowd and the assumption by almost everyone was that the Brexit would fail.

    The lead up to the U.S. election is also rife with polls indicating in most cases a margin of victory for Clinton over Trump. Of course, only a complete idiot would take polling numbers seriously in light of what happened during the Brexit.

    The Brexit campaign witnessed what appeared to some to be an unrecoverable black swan event – the killing of British MP Jo Cox. Almost everyone claimed that the murder of Cox by an apparently pro-Brexit assailant meant that the Brexit was doomed (I actually argued that the murder would be forgotten in a week and that the Brexit would pass anyway).

    The Trump campaign has witnessed its own kind of “black swan” event with the release of recordings from eleven years ago in which Trump is heard making “lewd remarks” about women. It is surprising to me how many conservatives (let alone liberals) have been declaring Trump’s candidacy effectively “over” due to the scandal. These people are dupes.

    Once again, I argue that the Trump tapes will be forgotten in a week and that they have no bearing whatsoever on the election. They are nothing more than bread and circus. Beyond the fact that really, almost no one cares what Trump said a decade ago, I argue that this election has already been decided. I argue that the globalists want Trump in office, just as they wanted the passage of the Brexit. I argue that they need conservative movements to feel as though we have won, so that they can pull the rug out from under us in the near future. I argue that we are being set up.

    Again, the elites are openly telling us what is about to happen. They are telling us that if “populists” (conservatives) gain political power, the system will effectively collapse. To what extent is hard to say, but let’s assume that the situation will be ugly enough to influence the masses to reconsider the ideal of globalism as a possible solution. The elites are fond of the Hegelian dialectic and the philosophy of “order out of chaos,” after all.

    The only way to counter this developing lie is for liberty champions to first accept the idea that our political victories might be ultimately meaningless and that we are being allowed to take charge of a ship that is already sinking. Only then can we distance ourselves from an exponential fiscal disaster by distancing ourselves from the narrative.

    Perhaps I am wrong, and in November we see a dismal Trump performance and a Clinton victory. But if we see a “surprise” Trump election win, just as we saw a surprise Brexit win, then it may be time to consider that the surface of this situation is not what it appears.

  • Trump Attacks FBI & DOJ For Corrupt Hillary Investigation – “It Was Crime At The Highest Level”

    After what clearly seems like a coordinated, multi-day attack by the mainstream media on the Trump campaign, culminating with the most recent New York Times article alleging sexual assault, the campaign has officially opened up new fronts in its war on the Washington establishment.  After attacking members of his own party, mostly Paul Ryan, earlier in the week for withdrawing their support, Trump has now directed his wrath towards the FBI and DOJ calling for an “investigation into the investigation” conducted by the FBI of Hillary’s private server. 

    The latest Trump “hit”, as the Hillary team referred to them in the Podesta emails, started at Sunday’s debate when Anderson Cooper, in the first question of the night, manipulated Trump’s now infamous “lewd” comments to Billy Bush to imply they were an admission to actual sexual assault.  As can be seen in the video below, Trump acknowledged the comments and apologized for them, but Cooper refused to moved on until he forced Trump to respond to a completely fabricated allegation that his words were necessarily an admission of actual sexual assault.  

    Then, not terribly surprisingly, within a couple of days, the New York Times released a follow-up “hit” in which they revealed women who claim to have been sexually assaulted by the Donald a couple of decades ago.  And, of course, Clinton spokeswoman, Jennifer Palmieri, immediately called out Trump for “lying” about the scandal at the debate.

     

    But Trump has used the coordinated “hits” against his campaign to declare an all out war on everyone from the mainstream media to Congressional leaders, on both sides of the aisle, and now the FBI and DOJ.  Per the Wall Street Journal, in statements at a rally in Florida yesterday, Trump furiously alleged corruption in the FBI’s investigation of Hillary’s email server describing it as “crime at the highest level.”

    Mr. Trump on Wednesday condemned the Washington establishment for letting Mrs. Clinton off without punishment for her use of a private email server while she was secretary of state.

     

    “I am so disappointed in Congress, and I mean both sides,” he said at a rally here. “What do you do when you hand it over to the FBI and the Justice Department and that’s the end of it?”

     

    The GOP nominee complained that Mr. Ryan didn’t congratulate him for his Sunday performance in the debate against Mrs. Clinton. “Wouldn’t you think that Paul Ryan would call and say, ‘Good going…Let’s go, Don, let’s beat that crook,’” he said. “There’s a whole sinister deal going on.”

     

    He repeated and built upon his threat to name a special prosecutor to investigate Mrs. Clinton if he becomes president, suggesting he would also probe the FBI and Justice Department for failing to bring charges against her for her handling of classified material and use of a private computer for email while secretary of state. “We have to investigate the investigation,” he said. “It was crime at the highest level.”

     

    Faulting Congress for not pressing more on the issue, he portrayed Capitol Hill and the political parties as a bipartisan back-scratching club that allows ethics problems to slide: “Did they make a deal where everybody protects each other in Washington?”

    Trump also directed his wrath at the “fraudulent” media which he called out for giving Hillary an advance look at debate questions and failing to report on the WikiLeaks emails.

     

    Meanwhile Trump also launched a new media ad blitz that will target key swing states with ads like the following.

     

    So buckle up folks, something tells us the next three weeks are going to be surreal.

  • THe YouNG DouCHe…

    DOUCHE

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Today’s News 13th October 2016

  • French Prime Minister Argues For United States Of Europe, With Its Own Military

    Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    French Prime Minister Manuel Valls, wants to transform the EU into the United States of Europe, complete with its own European defense force.

    Curiously, Valls specifically says “We cannot build a United States of Europe”, but that is precisely what he wants to do.

    “Member states have a choice: give up on the EU or transform it,” writes Manuel Valls.

    Redefining Europe

    Please consider Brexit Vote Pushes Europe to Redefine Itself, by Manuel Valls.

    Let us face facts: the European project is in trouble. With the growing threat of terrorism, the refugee crisis, lacklustre economic growth and unemployment, the turmoil in Europe is unprecedented. Added to these, the Brexit vote deeply questioned the very meaning of Europe.

     

    The other 27 member states of the EU have two options (this was the subject of my debate with Jean-Claude Juncker at the Jacques Delors Institute last week): either we give up and leave the European project to a slow but certain death, or we transform the EU.

     

    Reasserting our European identity also means coming to terms with the fact that there are borders — that Europe starts and stops somewhere.

     

    Too often the EU has appeared to be preoccupied with unnecessary regulation. Transforming Europe also means that member states must henceforth focus on the essentials, primarily defence and security — in Europe, of course, but also in the neighbouring region of the Middle East. The French army is already doing more than its fair share: it cannot remain the de facto European army forever. France expects Europe to implement a common security strategy, with fully operational border guards and an electronic system for travel authorisation of the kind already operated by the US.

     

    Finally, transforming Europe means making a clear choice to foster growth that does not only depend on the European Central Bank’s monetary policy. Europe must finance new projects and invest in digital and environmental innovation more than it does already.

     

    These sectors must be enabled to grow and to face competition from countries that have no scruples about protecting their own industries. The time for naivety is over.

     

    For this reason, the negotiations over the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) cannot carry on as they have been. If the EU is to grant market access to American companies, there has to be reciprocity.

     

    The European market must not be a social jungle, where people are set against one another. Nor can it be a tax jungle. It is unacceptable for multi­national companies to do everything in their power to avoid paying tax in the countries in which they make profits. The recent ruling of the European Commission on Apple’s tax affairs was courageous and welcome, therefore. At the same time, member states must progress towards common European tax rates.

     

    We cannot build a “United States of Europe”— each country has its own history, language and culture. But we can construct a sovereign Europe, a federation of nation states, strong and unashamed. We will not be the generation that buries the European project. We owe it to our young, who, for the most part, remain deeply attached to the European project. So are we.

    Valls Wish List

    1. Higher taxes
    2. Unified tax rates (striking at Ireland and Brexit)
    3. More tariff protections
    4. More government spending, especially on environmental projects
    5. A Sovereign Europe
    6. A Federation of Nation states (all having to do the same thing at the same time)
    7. Common defense system and an European army
    8. Fully operational border guards

    Hey, let’s just do all that and not call it the United States of Europe.

    The main thing Valls got correct was “Too often the EU has appeared to be preoccupied with unnecessary regulation.”

    Ironically, Valls proposed regulation in at least a half-dozen areas. and it won’t stop there.

    What about agricultural tariffs to preserve the French way of Life? Valls wants to keep those for the sole benefit of French farmers at the expense of everyone else.

    Great Nannycrat Transformation

    Brexit happened precisely because the EU has been progressing along the lines Valls wants. Citizens are fed up in the UK, Hungary, Poland, Italy, Austria, Greece, Portugal and France, over various things.

    Politicians like Beppe Grillo and the five-star movement in Italy, Marine Le Pen’s National Front in France, and Victor Orban in Hungary feed off nonsense like Valls presented.

    In Austria, anti-immigration presidential candidate Norbert Hofer of the Freedom Party (FPOe) is ahead in polls. The election, scheduled for October 2 was rescheduled to December 4 due to problems with glue.

    austria-election3

    Problems with Glue

    There are problems with glue all right.

    Ireland is upset over taxes, the UK, Hungary, France, and Austria over immigration, Greece and Portugal over austerity, and Italy questions the Euro itself.

    Valls did not address inane work rules in France, Greece, and Italy. Will those go away with more glue?

    Instead of addressing obvious productivity issues, Valls concludes the EU needs an army.

    The entire EU project is at risk of becoming unglued precisely because politicians like Valls, EC President Jean-Claude Juncker, and German chancellor Angela Merkel want to force more glue and more regulations into the system when the eurozone cannot remotely agree on a banking union, bailouts, a currency union, or a fiscal union.

  • Is A Short Squeeze Coming From This?

    By Chris at www.CapitalistExploits.at

    Market dislocations occur when financial markets, operating under stressful conditions, experience large widespread asset mispricing.

    Welcome to this week’s edition of “World Out Of Whack” where every Wednesday we take time out of our day to laugh, poke fun at and present to you absurdity in global financial markets in all it’s glorious insanity.

    kramer

    While we enjoy a good laugh, the truth is that the first step to protecting ourselves from losses is to protect ourselves from ignorance. Think of the “World Out Of Whack” as your double thick armour plated side impact protection system in a financial world littered with drunk drivers.

    Selfishly we also know that the biggest (and often the fastest) returns come from asymmetric market moves. But, in order to identify these moves we must first identify where they live.

    Occasionally we find opportunities where we can buy (or sell) assets for mere cents on the dollar – because, after all, we are capitalists.

    In this week’s edition of the WOW we’re covering volatility ETPs (Exchange Traded Products)

    Before we get into what exactly is Out Of Whack with volatility linked ETPs let’s cover what the heck a volatility ETP actually is.

    What are Volatility ETPs?

    Since it’s probably the most commonly known animal in the zoo we’ll turn to the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) for an explanation:

    The iPath® S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures™ ETN is designed to provide investors with exposure to the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures™ Index Total Return. The S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures™ Index Total Return (the “Index”) is designed to provide access to equity market volatility through CBOE Volatility Index® futures. The Index offers exposure to a daily rolling long position in the first and second month VIX futures contracts and reflects the implied volatility of the S&P 500® at various points along the volatility forward curve.

    In English now:

    Any ETP including VXX is a derivative of some underlying asset so let’s take a look at the underlying “asset”. In this case it’s the VIX futures. The VIX itself is actually a calculation based on the implied volatility of a basket of options on the S&P 500. Included in the calculations are options which are about to expire and those with 30 days to expiry. The net result is what amounts to a best guess as to what the market believes is in store for the next 30 days trading.

    Attentive readers will realise that the VIX is therefore not the actual volatility of the S&P 500, but rather a forward looking best guess of what it is. For example it’s possible for actual volatility of the S&P to be low while traders are freaking out about something they see in a months time which would send VIX higher.

    You can buy futures contracts on the price of VIX and they’re actively traded but like any futures contract you’re betting on a where a price lands on a future date, in this case 30 days out.

    Volatility ETFs are particularly strange animals since you’re buying a derivative (ETF) on a derivative (the futures contract) which itself is based on a derivative (the implied volatility of options) and those options themselves of course are derivatives which themselves are based on the S&P 500.

    So what’s going on with Volatility ETPs?

    Volatility ETPs can provide investors the ability to be bullish or bearish. In other words those expecting low volatility can buy something like the ProShares S&P 500 Low Volatility Portfolio (SPLV) and those expecting high volatility can buy something like the VXX mentioned above.

    It’s one thing that investors are expecting continued complacency and thus buying the low volatility ETPs but there is a perverse craziness that makes it all the more dangerous (more on that in a moment).

    To explain why there has been such a rise in the popularity of low volatility ETPs just imagine driving the Eyre highway which takes you across the Nullarbor plain in Australia. For those unfamiliar with what this is, it’s a 1,675km stretch of road that is pretty much dead straight and has nothing to see – nada. It is I assure you, more boring than watching grass grow and takes 2 days at high speed.

    nullarbor1

    The thing is you land up clocking speeds that would get you arrested anyplace else, in large part because it doesn’t feel like you’re going that fast and certainly doesn’t feel like you’re getting anywhere at all. It’s why when accidents happen on the Eyre highway they’re more often than not fatal.

    Every 50km or so the road kinks a little and so one minute you’re hurtling along and the next thing you know, the roads not there anymore and you’ve got to control a ton of metal and rubber screaming through the outback at 180km/h. The rental car guy I spoke to told me that about 10% of all his cars are never resold, they’re rolled.

    What does this have to do with volatility ETF’s?

    Everything.

    Long periods of complacency are often interspersed with brief but frightening jolts of “holy sh** where did that come from?

    Betting on increased volatility has been a losing bet. Below is the VXX in blue (long Volatility) vs SPLV in red (Short Volatility). 

    vol

    VXX in Blue and SPLV in green/red

    Now there are structural reasons why VXX is such a pig of a long term ETF to buy, and I’ll cover why that is in a future article but the point I want to make is that going short volatility has been a winning trade.

    I’ve written about this so much that my fingers are going to bleed, more recently when discussing how bonds no longer trade based on yield but based on a future price but the hunt for yield has created some truly amazing set of circumstances and this brings us squarely to low volatility ETF’s.

    Enter the beast – When the Cure Becomes the Poison

    As reported recently by Market Watch:

    “More than $50 billion has poured into low-volatility indexed exchange-traded funds over the past five years or so, in the wake of the 2008-09 market meltdown. There are now 14 “lo-vol” ETFs with assets exceeding $100 million each, and many more with less. Whenever the market hits a pothole, these ETFs enjoy a bump-up in assets.”

    screen-shot-2016-10-12-at-2-16-26-pm

    Now this is where the perverse part comes in. Bear with me on this – it’s important.

    Every time you sell volatility you get paid by the counter-party who is typically hedging the volatility (going long) of a particular position and paying you for the privilege. This is not unlike paying a home insurance premium where the insurer takes the ultimate risk of your house burning down and you pay them for the privelage. The difference however between selling volatility in order to protect against an underlying position and selling volatility in order to receive the yield created is enormous. And yet this is the game being played.

    The central banks have managed to create a sense of calm in the markets exhibited by record lows in volatility and for their part Joe Sixpack investor has used linear thinking extrapolated well into the future assuming ever greater risk ignoring market cycles and extremes at their peril.

    ————————————–

    Kyle Bass Gold

    ————————————–

    Two things are happening here:

    1. When the proverbial house burns down the insurance company (ETF) can’t cover. It’s all in and was never designed to protect holders for the inevitable reversal.
    2. Investors have been selling volatility in order to achieve yield and thus treating these structured products like bonds, when they are in fact similar to bonds in the same way that the iPhone is similar to a water buffalo.

    Traders are aggressively hunting for yield and finding it in selling volatility. This works wonderfully… until it doesn’t.

    Remember equities are something like 7x more volatile than bonds (depending on what you’re looking at) and these ETPs are inherently more volatile than the underlying equities upon which they’re ultimately priced. Treating them like bonds and buying them for yield is quite simply INSANE.

    What’s interesting is that the VIX is trading near all time lows at the same time that short interest on low volatility ETFs is at record highs.

    While I’m not predicting it though we are due a recession purely based on the business cycle, a market crash would almost certainly wipe out the entire low volatility ETP complex, and a market correction (overdue) will see a scramble amongst those who’ve been treating an ETP as a bond. It could be more entertaining to watch than the current clown show US presidential race.

    The question is:

    Wow Poll 12 October 2016Cast your vote here and also see what others think

    Know anyone that might enjoy this? Please share this with them.

    Investing and protecting our capital in a world which is enjoying the most severe distortions of any period in mans recorded history means that a different approach is required. And traditional portfolio management fails miserably to accomplish this.

    And so our goal here is simple: protecting the majority of our wealth from the inevitable consequences of absurdity, while finding the most asymmetric investment opportunities for our capital. Ironically, such opportunities are a result of the actions which have landed the world in such trouble to begin with.

    – Chris

    “To buy when others are despondently selling and sell when others are greedily buying requires the greatest fortitude and pays the greatest reward.” — Sir John Templeton

    ————————————–

    Liked this article? Don’t miss our future missives and podcasts, and

    get access to free subscriber-only content here.

    ————————————–

  • German Foreign Minister and Former MI6 Boss: US-Russia Tensions Now More Dangerous than During the Cold War

    Preface: I will add quotes from U.S. intelligence officials and Russia experts as I receive them.

    Germany’s Foreign Minister – Frank-Walter Steinmeier – wrote earlier this month that tension between the US and Russia is worse than during the Cold War:

    It’s a fallacy to think that this is like the Cold War. The current times are different and more dangerous.

    The head of Britain’s intelligence service, MI6 – Sir John Sawyers – agreed yesterday:

    We are moving into an era that is as dangerous, if not more dangerous, as the cold war because we do not have that focus on a strategic relationship between Moscow and Washington.

    This is even more dramatic when you realize that the U.S. and Soviets came within seconds of all-out nuclear war on numerous occasions during the Cold War. And only the courage of U.S. and Soviet individuals to say no when their superiors told them to fire nuclear weapons – in the face of mistaken readings – saved the planet from nuclear war.

    And many experts warn that we’re drifting towards nuclear war today.  Indeed, former U.S. Secretary of Defense William Perry said in February:

    The likelihood of a nuclear catastrophe today is greater than it was during the Cold War.

    Postscript: The American government and mainstream media cast all of the blame on Russia. But many top U.S. diplomats and intelligence officials disagree (and see this).

  • Stocks, USDJPY Plunge After Dismal China Trade Data

    Following an unexpected plunge in China's trade balance (to 6 month lows), US equity futures and USDJPY are tumbling as Yuan turmoil ripples through markets once again.

    Misses across the board in China trade data…

    • China Yuan Exports -5.6% YoY (exp. +2.5%)
    • China Yuan Imports +2.2% YoY (exp. +5.5%)
    • China Trade Balance 278.35bn (exp. 364.5bn)
    • China USD Exports -10.0% (exp. -3.3%)
    • China USD Imports -1.9% (exp. +0.6%)
    • China USD Trade balance 41.99bn (exp. 53.00bn)

    *CHINA TRADE STILL FACES GREAT UNCERTAINTIES: CUSTOMS' HUANG

     

    Sparked chaotic trading in Yuan as offshore selling pressure accelerated post Golden Week…

     

    And spread to USDJPY and implicity US equity futures…

     

    USDJPY dropped a whole big figure erasing the gains of the day…

  • Thinking About Voting? Read This First

    Submitted by Dan Sanchez via TheAntiMedia.org,

    Colin Kaepernick has been abstaining from standing for the national anthem. Self-styled patriots have been losing their minds over it. That is because they are true believers in a cult. The cult is the State.

    All states are cults: religions. And like all religions, states have sacraments, including holy rituals. The national anthem is one of the holy ritual sacraments of the cult of the American State. Those fully initiated and indoctrinated in that cult have been programmed to go into attack mode when divergent cult members (heretics) fail to observe such sacraments, like the national anthem or the pledge of allegiance to the holy pole cloth. Such peer pressure is how cults maintain their numbers.

    Voting is another one of those sacramental rituals. As with the national anthem and pledge of allegiance, true believers are aghast when you advocate abstention from voting. School, which is our chief initiation into the State cult, thoroughly and universally indoctrinates its initiates into the sacrament of voting and democracy. We’ve all been brainwashed from the time we were tiny children into the holy myth of democracy: that democracy is what makes us special, what makes America exceptional; that patriots suffered and died for democracy, from the Suffragettes to the Civil Rights movement, from the Revolution to the Civil War to World War II to the War on Terror; that through voting we are empowered to fight for what’s right, to make our country, our very lives, better. You can see how important this sacrament is to the State cult from all of the voting propaganda pushed by the government and the establishment media.

    But here’s the thing. Like all mystic rituals, the ritual of voting is based on superstition. Like an incantation or a rain dance, it is based on the superstition that great good can come of a mere gesture. Just as the rain dancer thinks he can summon rain that will save his crops, the voter thinks he can summon reform that will save his country.

    But again, it’s a superstition. The individual act of voting is futile. Elections are virtually never decided by a single vote. You’re more likely to die on the way to the polling place than affect the outcome of an election. You know it’s futile. You know that in previous elections the outcome wouldn’t have been any different had you not voted. You know the same will be true for future elections.

    Yes, in aggregate voting makes a difference. But that’s a different question. When you’re deciding whether to vote, you’re making an individual decision, not an aggregate one.

    Perhaps you think that by voting at least you’re doing your small part, making your small contribution. But contributing toward what?

    Imagine a giant siege engine that takes millions of people to push. Imagine if millions of people together purposefully pushed the engine to run over a group of innocent people tied up on the ground. Did those people die accidentally or were they murdered? If they were murdered, they were murdered by somebody. So by whom? The millions who pushed, of course. Even though any given individual’s decision whether to push or not didn’t make a difference one way or the other, every individual who pushed bears as much guilt as anybody else who pushed. Such an action is non-decisive, yet culpable at the same time.

    Now imagine if there were two groups of tied-up victims. Millions are pushing the siege engine to the left, trying to steer it away from Group A and toward Group B. Millions of others are pushing to the right, away from Group B and toward Group A. One side prevails, and Group B is crushed to death. These helpless victims were murdered, just as much as the victims in the previous scenario were. By whom? By the millions who pushed the engine in their direction. This is true, even if their primary goal for pushing in that direction was to save the lives of Group A.

    That’s effectively what you’re doing when you throw your weight behind a candidate or behind most forms of legislation. Candidates are package deals. Any candidate will violate the rights of some, even if they respect or defend the rights of others.

    Objectors say it’s about going in the general right direction, making choices out of which the good outweighs the bad, that do a net amount of good, that is good “on balance.” But that is collectivist speak. There is no “good on balance” for the people whose lives are run over by the candidate you empowered: for the child who is bombed by Hillary’s foreign policy, for the man who shot is by Trump’s police state, or the people Gary Johnson and Bill Weld kept in cages when they were governors.

    Objectors call it self-defense. But anti-war people should know better than anybody that collateral damage is never justified by self-defense. Objectors also say they are not responsible for the crimes committed by the office holders they voted for. But you can’t have it both ways. Either your vote doesn’t matter and it’s futile, or your vote matters and you’re culpable. (Although, again, I argue that you’re also culpable even though your vote is futile.)

    Don’t fall for the lie that you’re limited to choosing the lesser of multiple evils. You’re not limited to pushing the engine in the direction of one group of victims or another, or even toward a third smaller group of victims. You can abstain from pushing at all. You can refuse to lend your weight to the State. It’s true that a single act of abstention alone won’t make a difference as to whether people get run over, or regarding who gets run over. But neither will pushing in one direction or another: neither will voting. So you may as well choose the option that doesn’t even negligibly contribute to injustice.

    Not only do you have the option of merely abstaining from pushing, you can actually work to obstruct the siege engine, or to even dismantle it. Even the mere act of abstaining from voting contributes to the grand project of obstructing and dismantling the State. That is because voting is not just a ritual. It’s a power ritual.

    In a sense, all cult rituals are power rituals. They are about building and maintaining the power of the cult’s leadership, or the religion’s priesthood, over the lives of the cult’s rank and file members. Rituals do this by solidifying the adherents’ faith in the cult’s god. The cult’s priesthood poses as representatives and agents for this god. In the case of modern, secular political religions, the cult god is the State itself, which is an incoherent notion of the “general will” made manifest: a mythical abstraction that somehow acts for the good of the people. The government poses as the priesthood of this deity.

    Sacraments like the anthem, the pledge, and voting are so important to the government because they are what continually reinforce our faith in the State. Voting is particularly similar to holy communion. Voters line up at the polling booth to partake of divinity, believing that by participating in their own rule, they become one with the saving State they so adore.

    This participation is a form of buy-in. It causes the voter to identify with the government — the captives to identify with their captors. The State is the Stockholm Syndrome institutionalized. And the higher the turnout, the greater the perceived legitimacy granted to the government priesthood.

    Objectors say they are voting merely out of pragmatism and don’t intend to convey legitimacy to the government. But your intention is not the issue. The issue is the actual effect. It’s a simple fact that the government is able to use high turnout to convince its subjects that it represents the popular will — even to the subjects who voted for a losing candidate. It doesn’t matter that only individuals have wills, and so “the popular will” is an incoherent concept. What matters is that many people believe in it, and believe that high turnout signifies that the voice of the popular will has spoken.

    Just think: how convincing would be a democratic government’s claim to legitimacy with a 1% turnout vs. a 99% turnout, even if that 99% turnout was split down the middle? And what’s true of the extremes is also true of the gradations.

    Again, by voting you lend your weight to the State. You lend your weight to directing it toward certain victims. You also lend your weight to its sheer power and mass. By abstaining from voting, you dwindle the plausibility of the government’s claim to legitimacy and thus dwindle its power.

    Obstructing and dismantling such a huge thing as the State is also an effort that takes millions. So your contribution toward even that is negligible in the grand scheme of things. But at least you would be making a negligible contribution, to a noble effort, a moral project, and not to an immoral, pernicious system.

  • As China Pops Its Housing Bubble, Car Sales Soar 29%

    Late in September, we showed a viral surveillance video from inside new construction in east Hangzhou, which captured the sheer buying frenzy and panic, prompted by the new purchasing restrictions set to be unveiled just days later which would prevent people born outside Hangzhou from buying more than one property. 

    The crackdown on China’s latest housing bubble takes place as local home prices rose 9.2% in August from a year earlier, while in places like Shenzhen, prices soared almost 37%, in Beijing more than 23% and in Shanghai topped 30%. Such hefty price rises have been common all year in these so-called Tier 1 cities.

    Now that the widely telegraphed restrictions have kicked, as expected China’s housing market now appears set for a sharp pullback after several months of record pricing gains. As Reuters reports, a wave of restrictions imposed on housing markets in major Chinese cities last week have cut the area of new homes sold in places such as Beijing and Shenzhen by more than half. More than 20 cities have imposed measures, including higher mortgage downpayments, to cool hot property markets that have raised official alarm in Beijing and fresh concerns about China’s ballooning debt.

    Last week was a public holiday to mark National Day, traditionally a high season for property sales. Property agents said prices of new homes sold in the southern city of Shenzhen and in Beijing dropped 20 percent last week to entice buyers, compared with the previous week.

    Beijing and Wuxi, a city near Shanghai, had no new launches last week, a survey of 10 major cities by property researcher CREIS showed. But the area of residential space sold, based on developments launched previously, plunged 86 percent and 72 percent, respectively, compared to the previous week. CREIS said cities including Shanghai, Hangzhou and Wuhan, launched new developments but the area put on the market declined more than 50 percent and the area sold dropped 35 percent to 60 percent.

    “The new tightening measures are quite stringent,” said Alan Cheng, general manager of realtor Centaline Shenzhen. “It’s a blow to confidence and people are worried that prices will drop, so they are observing from the sidelines now.” The latest restrictions varied from city to city, but included higher mortgage downpayments for second and third-time home buyers, in a bid to stem the flow of cash into the red-hot property market.

    * * *

    However, since this is China, where one zombie asset bubble dies (briefly) only for another bubble to be (re)born, at the same time as the housing bubble is set to pop, the local population has turned its attention to cars.

    According to Bloomberg, Chinese passenger-vehicle sales surged a gargantuan 29% last month, led by small-car makers Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. and Mazda Motor Corp., as consumers seeking to beat an expiring tax cut helped clear inventory on dealer lots. Deliveries of sedans, minivans, sport utility and multipurpose vehicles to dealerships rose to 2.27 million units in September, the state-backed China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said Wednesday.

    Just like with the rush to buy housing ahead of purchasing restrictions, in the case of autos, consumers rushed to buy to take advantage of potentially expiring preferential tax terms. The government has so far stayed silent on whether it will extend a tax cut on purchases of vehicles with smaller engines beyond Dec. 31. As a result, sales could plunge next year if levies are allowed to double to 10 percent, said Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the China Passenger Car Association, a separate industry group. A slump in demand would worsen a capacity glut and dent profit margins, according to Steve Man, an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence.

    “The expiration of the current purchase tax cut is encouraging consumers to catch the last bus and bring forward their car purchases,” said Huang Xiaowei, an analyst with Shenzhen-based WAYS Consulting Co. “Dealers are preparing stocks for the surging demand at the year-end.”

    The scramble to buy cars has left many carmakers with little to no inventory. A gauge of vehicle inventory fell for a third straight month in September to the lowest level in two years, according to the China Automobile Dealer Association. Dealers of Japanese brands in August saw profits increase by 27% from a month earlier to 1,851 yuan per vehicle after scaling back discounts due to strong demand, according to WAYS Consulting.

    Mazda said its sales in China jumped 49 percent in September from a year earlier, led by models including the Axela compact, which qualifies for the tax cut. Geely raised its full-year sales target after September deliveries surged 82 percent from a year earlier.

    Even General Motors’ car sales, which had recently slowed in China, surged 16% to 343,773 units, with deliveries of Cadillac sedans increasing 63%. Great Wall Motor Co.’s sales rose 49 percent to 97,685 units, with SUV deliveries reaching 87,627 units.

    What happens should both the housing and car bubbles pop? Well, buy stocks (again) or (even more) bitcoin, because in China, where the total amount of bank deposit is in the mid-$20 trillion range, the bubbles never actually die, they just get recycled.

  • Meet The "Real" Deplorables

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    screen-shot-2016-10-10-at-4-23-45-pm

    Below are some excerpts from Michael Tracey’s latest article: The Real Deplorables.

    Enjoy.

    The real “deplorables” generally aren’t the people whom Hillary denounced as wholly “irredeemable,” or at whom economically secure commentators fulminate on a regular basis. More obviously “deplorable” are Hillary’s fellow financial, political, economic, and military elites who wrecked the economy, got us mired in endless unwinnable foreign wars, and erected a virtually impenetrable cultural barrier between everyday Americans trying to live fruitful lives and their pretentious, well-heeled superiors ensconced in select coastal enclaves. It is thanks to the actions of this “basket of deplorables” that we’re in the situation we’re in, where an oaf like Trump is perilously close to seizing the presidency.

     

    At a recent Trump rally in Lancaster County, Pa., I was bemused to encounter a coterie of local Amish people who’d traveled there together by bus. Asked why they backed Trump, the overwhelming response was that Amish folks just wanted to preserve their traditional way of life (which they saw as under siege) and perceived Trump as enabling them to carry on with it. Some told me they supported Trump not because of some overweening disdain for their nation’s fellowmen, or immigrants, or even coastal liberals, but because they felt that the federal government was intruding on their ability to properly run their small farms.

     

    One Amish gentleman, remarking on Trump’s apparent lack of strident religious belief, added of Trump: “He’s not a Christian, but he’ll protect the Christian cause.” Veteran religion reporter Bob Smietana later remarked that he could not recall a previous instance of Amish people showing up en masse to a presidential campaign event.

     

    Naturally, upon tweeting photos from the rally, I was inundated with indignant cries from ostensible liberals claiming that the people in question weren’t real Amish, or were desperately deluded, or similar snark. True: the Amish lifestyle isn’t for everybody. Nor do the Amish foist it on anyone else. One virtue of the United States is that it’s a huge, pluralistic democratic republic with lots of land and lots of room for people to practice their beliefs as they see fit.

     

    You don’t necessarily have to love these peculiar belief systems to tolerate their existence. Indeed, some of them undoubtedly contain facets that are bigoted and/or vulgar, and you are free to vociferously criticize them. Some even might be cut off from popular culture, as is the case with the Amish, who certainly are not attuned to the daily outrage avalanche dished out by mainstream-media organs—but this doesn’t mean that the people who practice old-fashioned lifestyles are somehow morally sullied or “deplorable.” It means they have different life trajectories.

     

    This also holds true in Lewiston, Maine, where Trump is favored to win the 2nd Congressional District and therefore at least one (potentially crucial) electoral vote. (Maine and Nebraska allocate their electoral votes by congressional district.) Lots of Franco-Americans populate this area, and many old-timers still speak French with a distinctive Central Mainer dialect. (Often it comes out when folks get inebriated at the bars in town.) When I visited recently, everyone basically had the same story: mills use to be the lifeblood of the local economy and by extension its civic institutions. Once the mills inexplicably shuttered, these workers lost their sense of location and community. Social-club memberships dwindled; parades and marches down the main thoroughfare became less of an attraction. There’s just not a hell of a lot going on nowadays, except Patriots games on TV, drinking, and drugs. Anybody with the means usually either bolts for relatively more prosperous Bangor to the north, or south to Boston and beyond.

     

    Are the people who live in Lewiston really “deplorables”? Most of them like Trump, but they’re not the ones who crashed the economy or agitated to invade Iraq, as Hillary did.

     

    Again: perhaps the true deplorables are the unaccountable elites whose decisions directly worsened life for millions of Americans. Oddly, you never hear Hillary running around to high-roller fundraisers condemning Goldman Sachs for their deplorable conduct; maybe that’s because they’ve directly given her and Bill hundreds of thousands of dollars for “speeches,” excerpts of which finally came out last Friday and are just as degenerate as you’d expect.

     

    (Goldman banned partners from giving money to Trump’s campaign, but handing over cash to Hillary is still perfectly fine.)

     

    Maybe the Amish of southeast Pennsylvania or the Franco-Americans of central Maine don’t use the correct Twitter hashtags or subscribe to Lena Dunham’s newsletter, but they’re still good people with normal ambitions for a happy, secure life. Screeching “deplorable!” at them is itself deplorable, especially because it lets the elites who bungled the country’s affairs off the hook.

    Read the entire piece here: The Real Deplorables.

  • State Department Asked What Is Difference Between Yemen And Syria Bombings, Awkward Moment Follows

    As we asked rhetorically yesterday, how Kerry can accuse Russia of committing war crimes in Syria with a straight face is unclear, as reports of atrocious crimes committed in Yemen continue to surface.

    It seems AP's Tom Lee questioned this hypocrisy also.

    As The Independent reports, a US government spokesperson has struggled to answer questions put to him on why the US condemns Russian bombing in Syria, and supports Saudi-led bombing in Yemen, both of which have killed thousands of civilians.

    During a media briefing in Washington DC on Tuesday, State Department spokesperson John Kirby was asked repeatedly about whether Saudi coalition bombing of Houthi rebels in Sanaa – facilitated by US arms sales to the Gulf state – deliberately targets civilian infrastructure.

     

    “Over the weekend there was this air strike on a funeral by the Saudi-led coalition,” Matt Lee of the Associated Press asked. “I was just wondering: does the administration see any difference between this kind of thing, and what you accuse the Russians, Syrians and the Iranians of doing in Syria, and particularly Aleppo?”

     

    Mr Kirby struggled to answer the question, pointing out that the Kingdom has launched an investigation into how the funeral hall was hit, whereas nothing of the sort has been carried out by the Syrian or Russian governments, which he accused of deliberately causing harm to civilians.

     

    Russia did call for an investigation into the bombing of an aid convoy near Aleppo on September 19th, which contributed to the suspension of talks on Syria between Washington and Moscow.

     

    Mr Lee, the AP’s diplomatic correspondent, continued to hold Mr Kirby’s feet to the fire on the Yemeni issue, pressing him for an answer on how “an increasing number of Yemeni civilians are at risk and being killed by weapons that the United States has furnished to the Saudis and their coalition partners.”

     

    “You don’t find any kind of issue with this? Because a lot of people do, including on [Capitol] Hill,” he added.

     

    Mr Kirby said that the situation was very different in Syria and Yemen, pointing out that Iranian-supplied Houthi rockets have killed Saudi citizens in recent months.

     

    “The Saudi-led coalition were invited in by the Yemeni government – now I know what you’re going to say, the Russians were invited by [Syrian President] Assad… but [the Saudis] are under real threat on their side of the border in that war,” he said.

    But as TheAntiMedia's Darius Shahtahmasebi details, it's not just some of the better-informed US press corps that is angry at this utter hypocrisy… Russia’s Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, lost her cool in response to a Western journalist who asked her the question: “Why is Russia supporting Assad, who is killing civilians?

    Apparently, one should remind themselves that American bombs, which have been launched in at least ten Muslim countries since 1980, do not kill civilians. Ever.

    If they do, these are mere accidents – always.

    And more often than not, the civilians were probably doing something bad, anyway, or they wouldn’t have been on the receiving end of American missiles.

    Despite these glaring contradictions in the journalist’s question, Zakharova focused more on the failures of the parties involved to bring peace to Syria. Her response provides us with some valuable insight into why the Syrian peace process continues to fail. It also raises some very critical questions and points for consideration.

    Zakharova said:

    “This is the crux of the issue – let’s sit down and agree which groups are terrorists, and which ones are not. Let’s begin to work together. What other way is there? Tell me. You want us to just exit Syria? Pack up and leave the terrorists there? That is not a way out. I am not going to repeat just how many UN Security Council documents and resolutions there are that call to fight against terrorism. And Al-Nusra is a terrorist group! [as per the UN list].”

    Washington and its allies would undoubtedly welcome a scenario in which Russia would be forced to abandon the Syrian regime. This could explain John Kerry’s recent statements that Russia should be investigated for war crimes, something the U.S. would never inflict upon itself despite its military ventures in an overwhelming number of sovereign nations.

    Zakharova added:

    Leaving is not an option for us because everyone now understands that something has to be done in order to curb this terror threat. This is the crux of the issue. And of course we understand that armed conflict is taking place and we see that the civilian population is suffering, there is no question about that. But this is why we created the center for cooperation with the U.S., so that we could work and decide together.

    Zakharova then proceeded to tell the journalist the real reasons behind the failing of the peace process in Syria — from Russia’s point of view:

    “There are parties that continually stop the US and Russia from working together on this matter. Despite arrangements in place for this to happen, they still got their way to ensure this did not happen.  This does not mean that positions can’t change tomorrow – but today it is advantageous for these parties to have interrupted this dialogue between US and Russia.”

     

    “This is the crux of the issue. And one more thing – the main message that [Western] mainstream media is delivering is that ‘the Russian air force is killing Syrian civilians.’ Or the Syrian army is doing that with the help of the Russian air force.”

    Zakharova apparently took issue with the fact the U.S. coalition has been in Syria longer than Russia has yet only Russia gets lambasted regularly by the corporate media.

    “One more question – 2 years ago, what on earth did the American coalition proceed to do there?

     

    “You know, if the civilians were not in danger, what were you doing there? Well, they were in danger, and the Americans went there, in their words, to help them. Do you understand that you can’t be selective and look at things in isolation? We have to agree that the civilian population is suffering, the blockade, the hostages and they are surrounded by al-Nusra. So let’s sit down and agree together, where are the civilians and where are the terror groups? And work together.”

    However — and this is where Zakharova’s response becomes incredibly insightful — the Minister actually designates two parties that have blocked the Syrian peace process from moving forward. Zakharova does not name them directly, but there are only a handful of countries she could be referencing, making this an issue worthy of investigation:

    “This is the work that we are being stopped from doing. The talks on Syria are about to begin again – but everyone understands that the two rotating member countries (from the UN Security Council) have a decisive capability and they are blocking our progress. This is because we have finally approached the crux of the problem – al-Nusra.” (emphasis added)

     

    “Al-Nusra are the new mujahideen. Do you understand this concept? Go and read some history – research how al-Qaeda came to be. It’s exactly the same thing. Point by point, it is exactly the same. The financing; the moral and ideological support. And what did your relationship with the mujahideen cause? It created al-Qaeda. And al-Qaeda – you all know what that is.”

     

    “So you can’t simplify [isolated events] like this, you have to understand what caused it. You can’t logically follow mainstream [garbage] ‘Russia is killing everyone and everyone is trying to stop Russia.’ This is rubbish.”

    Zakharova doesn’t let the journalist off lightly – nor Western media in general. Zakharova’s frustration, felt by many of us who are trying to follow the Syrian conflict as accurately as possible, is that the simplification of these issues, taken out of their historical context, presents a threat to the advancement of the human race. Without understanding why events are unfolding the way they are, the American people and the people of the world could be led down a dangerous path and would be none the wiser.

    “I’m very sorry for my expression but – such simplification means that [Western] stupidity is more dangerous than the threat itself. And when simplification of this scale happens in [Western] mainstream media, I think this is more scary than terrorism itself. Simplify everything to the extreme, and only show it from one angle it might work in.

    No one can morally justify potential Russian war crimes. However, the evidence continues to demonstrate that one side of the conflict has refused to cooperate pragmatically in Syria and has instead continued a number of policies that have merely exacerbated the conflict.

    If the U.S. were truly committed to fighting terrorism, they would work with Russia to determine which groups should be designated terror groups and which ones should be off-limits. So far they have not. Apparently, striking Syrian soldiers who are battling ISIS militants is a much more worthwhile venture – so worthwhile it seems that the U.S. wants to do it again.

    *  *  *

    We are reminded of Glenn Greenwald's clear tweet on the matter…

     

    This is not to say Russia and Syria should not be investigated for war crimes – but maybe, just maybe, we could live in a world where everyone responsible for committing these gross acts could be held accountable, instead of just those who pose an economic threat to the West.

  • CLiNToN DeLiVeRaNCe…

    CLINTON DELIVERANCE

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Today’s News 12th October 2016

  • The Eurasian Century Is Now Unstoppable

    Submitted by William Engdahl via Strategic-Culture.org,

    The transfer of the geopolitical center of gravity to Eurasia is something the West will have to get used to.

    I recently returned from a fascinating two week speaking tour in China. The occasion was the international premier of my newest book, One Belt, One Road–China and the New Eurasian Century.

    In the course of my visit I was invited by China’s Northwest University in Xi’an to give a lecture and seminar on the present global political and economic situation in the context of China’s New Economic Silk Road as the One Belt, One Road project is often called.

    What I’ve seen in my many visits to China, and have studied about the entirety of this enormously impressive international infrastructure project convinces me that a Eurasian Century at this point is unstoppable.

    The idiotic wars of the Washington war-hawks and their military industry–in Syria, in Ukraine, Libya, Iraq and now the South China Sea provocations against China–are not going to stop what is now clearly the most impressive and economically altering project in more than a century.

    The term “American Century” was triumphantly proclaimed in a famous editorial in Life magazine in 1941 in the early phase of World War II, before the United States had even entered the war, to describe the system publisher Henry Luce saw dominating the postwar world after the fall of the rival British Empire.

    The American Century has lasted a mere seven decades if we date from the end of the war. Its record has been one of dismal failure on balance. The industrial base of the United States, the predominant leading industrial nation and leading scientific innovator, today is a hollowed, rotted shell with once-booming cities like Detroit or Philadelphia or Los Angeles now burned-out ghettos of unemployed and homeless.

    The Federal Debt of the United States, owing to the endless wars its Presidents engage in, as well as the fruitless bailouts of Wall Street banks and Government Sponsored Enterprises like Fannie Mae, is well over 103% of GDP at an astonishing $19.5 trillion, or more than $163,000 per taxpaying American and Washington is adding to the debt this year at near $600 billion. Countries like China and Russia are moving away from subsidizing that debt at a record pace.

    America’s economic basic infrastructure–bridges, sewer and water treatment plants, electric grid, railways, highways–have been neglected for more than four decades for a variety of reasons.

    The American Society of Civil Engineers recently estimated that gross domestic product will be reduced by $4 trillion between 2016 and 2025 because of lost business sales, rising costs and reduced incomes if the country continues to underinvest in its infrastructure. That is on top of the fact that they estimate the country at present urgently requires new infrastructure investment of $3.3 trillion by the coming decade just to renew.

    Yet US states and cities are not able to finance such an investment in the future in the present debt situation, nor is the debt-choked Federal Government, so long as a cartel of corrupt brain-dead Wall Street banks and financial funds hold America to ransom.

    This is the sunset for the American Century, a poorly disguised imperial experiment in hubris and arrogance by a gaggle of boring old patriarchs like David Rockefeller and his friends on Wall Street and in the military industry. It is the starkest contrast to what is going on to the east, across all Eurasia today.

    Flowing the Thought to Transform

    The Eurasian Century is the name I give to the economic emergence of the countries contiguous from China across Central Asia, Russia, Belarus, Iran and potentially Turkey. They are being integrally linked through the largest public infrastructure projects in modern history, in fact the most ambitious ever, largely concentrated on the 2013 initiative by Chinese President Xi Jinping called the One Belt, One Road initiative or OBOR.

    The project and its implications for Europe and the rest of the world economy have been so far greeted in the west with a stone silence that defies explanation.

    It’s been now three years that have transpired since then-new Chinese President Xi Jinping made one of his first foreign visits to Kazakhstan where he discussed the idea of building a vast, modern network of high-speed train lines crossing the vast Eurasian land space from the Pacific coast of China and Russia through Central Asia into Iran, into the states of the Eurasian Economic Union, principally Russia and potentially on to the select states of the European Union.

    That initial proposal was unveiled in detail last year by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s economic planning organization, and the ministries of Foreign Affairs and Commerce.

    It’s a useful point to look now more closely at what has transpired to date. It reveals most impressive developments, more because the development process is creative and organic. The great project is no simple blueprint made by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and then simply imposed, top down, across the so-far 60 countries of Eurasia and South East Asia.

    An international conference was recently held in Xi’an, origin of the ancient version of One Belt, One Road, namely the Silk Road. The purpose of the international gathering was to review what has so far taken place.

    It’s fascinating, notably, in the care that’s being taken by China to do it in a different way, as indications so far are, different from the way American Robber Barons like Cornelius Vanderbilt, E.H. Harriman, Jay Gould or Russell Sage built rail monopolies and deluded and defrauded investors with railroad monopolies more than a century ago.

    The seminar, titled the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): Shared Memory and Common Development, on September 26th, brought together over 400 participants from more than 30 countries including government officials, universities, corporations, think tanks and media.

    A key role is being played by Renmin University of China’s Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies to identify progress and problems of the OBOR project. Their report in Xi’an presented principles underlying the OBOR international project: It adheres to the principles of the UN Charter; it is completely open for new participant nations to cooperate; it will follow market rules and seek mutual benefit of participating countries.

    Those are noble words. What’s more interesting is the flow process underway to realize such words and to build the mammoth game-changing infrastructure.

    Notably, China’s Xi Jinping decided to encourage input from sources other than the state central planning agency or the Communist Party for the complex OBOR. He encouraged creation of private and independent think-tanks to become a source of new creative ideas and approaches.

    Today there is a Chinese Think Tank Cooperation Alliance group coordinating efforts around OBOR headed by the dean of the Renmin University. In turn they partner with think tanks along the OBOR route including think tanks in Iran, Turkey, India, Nepal, Kazakhstan and other countries.

    There will be two main routes of the OBOR. On land there are several routes or corridors in work. The Initiative will focus on jointly building what is being called a new Eurasian Land Bridge from China via Kazakhstan on to Rotterdam. Other OBOR land rail corridors include developing China-Mongolia-Russia, China-Central Asia-West Asia, China-Pakistan, Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar, and China-Indochina Peninsula economic corridors.vThis is huge.

    It will build on international transport routes, relying on core cities along the OBOR route and using key economic industrial parks as “cooperation platforms.”

    At sea, the Initiative will focus on jointly building smooth, secure and efficient transport routes connecting major sea ports along the “Belt and Road” including modern upgraded super port construction that will link present China ports at Haikou and Fujian with Kuala Lumpur’s port in Malaysia at the Malacca Strait passage, Calcutta in India, Nairobi in Kenya and via the Suez Canal to Athens and beyond. Crucial is that land and sea parts of OBOR are seen as one whole circulatory system or flow of trade.

    The OBOR Initiative will link key Eurasian ports with interior rail and pipeline infrastructure in a way not before seen

    To date China has signed memoranda of understanding with 56 countries and regional organizations regarding OBOR. Since his initial proposal in 2013, President Xi Jinping has personally visited 37 countries to discuss implementation of OBOR. China Railway Group and China Communications Construction Company have signed contracts for key routes and ports in 26 countries.

    Power plants, electricity transmission facilities and oil and gas pipelines, covering 19 countries along the “Belt and Road” in some 40 energy projects have begun. China Unicom, China Telecom and China Mobile are speeding up cross-border transmission projects in countries along the “Belt and Road” to expand international telecommunication infrastructure.

    Already, taking the full sea and land routes of OBOR, some $3 trillion of China trade since June 2013 has flowed over the route, more than a quarter of China’s total trade volume.

    To date China has also invested more than $51 billion in the countries along the present OBOR route. The new land rail routes will greatly reduce transportation costs across Eurasia, enable formerly isolated regions to connect efficiently to sea and land markets and ignite tremendous new economic growth across Eurasia.

    0217-china-high-speed-rail

    The effects of the OBOR are already beginning to appear. Earlier this year an Iranian container ship arrived at Qinzhou Port in China with 978 containers from several countries along the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road opening the first shipping route linking the Middle East and the Beibu Gulf or Gulf of Tonkin in Vietnamese.

    In February 2016 a container train with Chinese goods took only 14 days to complete the 5,900 mile (9,500km) journey from China’s eastern Zhejiang province through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

    That was 30 days shorter than the sea voyage from Shanghai to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, according to the head of the Iranian railway company. China and Iran, now formally part of the OBOR, have targeted bilateral trade, none in US dollars by the way, to exceed $600 billion in the coming decade.

    China is presently in negotiations with 28 countries China is in talks with 28 countries including Russia, on high-speed rail projects, China’s train maker, China CNR reports.

    It includes a major joint China-Russia $15 billion high-speed Kazan to Moscow line. The 770 kilometers of track between Moscow and Russia’s Tatarstan capital, Kazan, will cut time for the journey from 12 hours now to just 3.5 hours. China has agreed to invest $6 billion in the project which would become a part of a $100 billion high-speed railway between Moscow and Beijing.

    Notably, for the new high-speed track being laid, China is developing a new generation of trains capable of reaching speeds of 400 kilometers per hour. And the new trains will solve the costly rail gauge switching problem between China rails and Russian.

    Trains in Russia run on a 1520mm track, compared to the narrower 1435mm track used in Europe and China. Jia Limin, the head of China’s high-speed rail innovation program told China Daily that, “The train… will have wheels that can be adjusted to fit various gauges on other countries’ tracks, compared with trains now that need to have their wheels changed before entering foreign systems.”

    Given its strategy of building thousands of kilometers of high-speed railways and developing its domestic Chinese rail sock manufacture as well as other rail technology, China today is the world’s leading producer of rail technology.

    Financing the moving

    Impressive is that China has secured capital commitment for the OBOR from various sources including the China Development Bank, Export-Import Bank of China, the China-initiated Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the BRICS New Development Bank and other sources including its Silk Road Fund to finance the huge undertaking.

    The Silk Road Fund has posted $40 billion to fund the OBOR projects. So far close to a quarter trillion US dollars of ready money and another half trillion in supranational institutional working capital is reasonably within reach.

    The Western doomsday reports of China’s economy going down the tubes are simply either self-serving propaganda of hedge funds or speculators or fed by lack of understanding of the profound transformation in the entire structure of not only China’s but all Eurasia’s economy through the One Belt One Road initiative. China is undergoing a major transformation from a cheap-labor screwdriver assembly nation to a high-value-added high-tech manufacturer.

    Geopolitical transformation

    The One Belt, One Road initiative of Xi Jinping and the Eurasian partners, especially Russia, also has strategic dimensions of major import. The construction of new infrastructure corridors spanning across the Eurasian landmass in the form of highways, railways, industrial parks, and oil and gas pipelines, OBOR is connecting for the first time in the modern era landlocked regions of hinterland China and Russia and Central Asia republics with the sea ports.

    Linking key Eurasian industrial hubs to ports with efficient transportation will revolutionize connectivity of hinterland industrial products and raw materials of every kind. The Russian and Eurasian lands, including China, contain perhaps the richest untapped concentration of every raw material known.

    The One Belt, One Road also includes oil and gas pipeline transportation corridors. In January 2015 the Myanmar-China Pipeline project, 2400 km long, was completed, linking Myanmar’s deep-water port of Kyaukphyu on Maday Island in the Bay of Bengal with Kunming in Yunnan province in southeast China near Myanmar’s border.

    It’s a joint project of the China Development Bank and Myanmar Foreign Investment Bank. The new pipeline allows China to import up to 400,000 barrels a day of Middle East oil over a route 1100 km shorter than the previous Malacca Strait sea route, reducing time to reach the large industrial hub city of Kunming by 30%, major economic gains, and avoiding the strategic chokepoint of the Malacca Strait where the US Navy’s Sixth Fleet dominates.

    Previously, 80% of Chinese oil and gas imports crossed the Malacca straits and were subject to US controls. Were the present escalating tensions between Washington and China over the South China Sea or other issues to escalate, China would be brought to her knees much like Japan prior to declaring war in 1941, when the USA embargoed her oil. A second pipeline brings natural gas from Qatar and Myanmar gas fields to China.

    The OBOR includes oil and gas pipelines that reduce time and distance to imports of Middle East oil and gas

    China will pay $53 billion to Myanmar in pipeline royalties over 30 years. They will also invest $25 million in schooling and other social development projects along the pipeline and 10% of the gas will stay in Burma.

    Mackinder Outflanked?

    The totality of the strategy behind Xi Jinping’s Eurasian One belt, One Road rail, sea and pipeline initiative, which is moving quietly and impressively forward, is transforming the world geopolitical map. In 1904 a British geographer, Sir Halford Mackinder, a fervid champion of the British Empire, unveiled a brilliant concept in a speech to the London Royal Geographical Society titled the Geographical Pivot of History.

    That essay has shaped both British and American global strategy of hegemony and domination to the present. It was complemented by US Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahan’s 1890 work, The Influence of Sea Power Upon History, which advocated “sea power,” stating that nations with domination of the seas, as the British Empire or later the USA, would dominate the world.

    The One Belt, One Road, by linking all the contiguous land areas of Eurasia to the related network of strategic new or enlarged deep-water ports of OBOR’s Maritime Silk Road, has rendered US geopolitical strategy a devastating blow at a time the hegemony of America is failing as never in its short history.

    The Eurasian Century today is inevitable and unstoppable. Built on different principles of cooperation rather than domination, it just might offer a model for the bankrupt United States and the soon-bankrupt European Union, to build up true prosperity not based on looting and debt slavery.

    *  *  *

    William Engdahl is strategic risk consultant and lecturer, he holds a degree in politics from Princeton University and is a best-selling author on oil and geopolitics, “New Eastern Outlook”

  • The Search for the Perfect Trading Mouse (Video)

    By EconMatters


    We discuss some of the important requirements for a solid trading mouse in this video. I had some trial and error along the way in finding the best possible trading solution for my mouse requirements.
    Think brain surgery when looking for a trading mouse. Miss clicks are not your friend in trading.

    © EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle   

  • HiLLaRY MuFFDiVeRS…

    DOUCHEBAGGERY 101

  • Illegal Clinton victory can mean USA Balkanization or Revolution

    How quickly we are sliding down the rabbit hole! As we explain in Splitting Pennies – Understanding Forex – Forex is the means to which one can understand how the world works.  This book isn’t about FOREX so much as it’s about the workings of the ‘real world’ – and no better time than now to understand these nuances! Scots refer to this time as “The Quickening:” 

    Many have noted that time seems to be accelerating. The hours, days, seasons, and
    years appear to fly by faster than ever before. An hour no longer feels like 60 minutes
    (unless you’re waiting in line!). One week seems to run into the next. It’s as if we’re
    watching the blur of a speeding train pass by.

    It seems that it’s not possible to even digest and assimilate the information as quickly as it’s passing now.  Wikileaks released more HRC emails, of all people Bill OReilly exposes a massive conspiracy against Trump, A Libertarian tracking to get 10% of the vote, an election official was caught on camera saying ‘the fix is in’ for HRC, Russia is in fallout mode; whats next?  I’ll tell you what’s next…  First, a quick lesson..

    The current social control paradigm doesn’t control people 100%.  It’s not as if there’s a button they can press in Washington, and Joe Plumber will lift his right arm and salute.  It’s an inefficient, outdated, but effective – propoganda system that functions on multiple levels.  Television with its HZ waves, chemicals in the food, drugs like Prozac, Zoloft, Viagra, Valium, and now in the west Marijuana, all designed to make you very happy fat idiots.  Well, not everyone is on prescription meds, and not everyone has a TV, so that’s one proof that this ‘system’ isn’t 100% effective!  Also, even for those ‘inside’ the system, it doesn’t control them 100%.  It controls the ‘group mind’ or ‘groupthink’ – that means, in subtle ways, the establishment can be against TRUMP but in such a way that at first he’s elected, but PENCE is the real play.  This game scenario, pacifies the real ‘awake’ people, with a TRUMP victory, but having a real establishmentarian in the White House shortly after.  Just sayin’ – it’s one of the possible considered scenarios – and you can bet the farm that the DOD’s supercomputers are running at full capacity gaming this situation, because a failure to coalecse the people when they are angry and armed can mean one thing: REVOLUTION.  Replace that word properly with ANARCHY or CHAOS because this isn’t really a REVOLUTION, as the Bolshevik revolution which was planned and stood for intellectual concepts.  This would be more of a REVOLT, against a broken establishmentarian system that hasn’t evolved with the times, and has done a poor, poor, poor job of management.  

    Note to Elite – if you want to engratiate yourselves, be sure to keep the people fat and happy completely, so they don’t notice what you’re doing.  Happy people means people sheeple.

    The Establishment is so against Trump that it’s scary.  It’s proof that he really is an independent ‘candidate’ and that he hasn’t been ‘bribed’ by the powers to be.  But in any case, even for fervent TRUMP supporters, an establishment HRC victory by election fraud as described by the election official ‘busing around voters from voting booth to booth’ might even be BETTER than a TRUMP victory.  Because, TRUMP winning the election is the POSSIBILITY, not the GUARANTEE, of change.  Once TRUMP is in the White House, they will do everything and anything to make his job impossible.  It’s not known how TRUMP would act in such situation – not even he knows.  He thinks he knows – but he will encounter things that he didn’t expect once he’s there.  

    Regardless of the outcome, it seems that if there is any funny business at election time, which it seems there most certainly will be, it will ‘wake up’ a huge amount of voters to the fact that America has long ago been bought and sold just like almost every other country on the planet.  This may start them down a path where they may ask questions about the status quo, and it may change them.  They may want to learn things, such as how the financial system works – where does all the ‘money go’ – why is our money less and less valuable each year?  So, as hearbreaking as it may be to see a real swine steal the election via voter fraud, it certainly wouldn’t be a first in America (see results of 2000 elections), and it might actually be a good thing, in the long run, as those who are naive who believe ‘it can’t happen in America’ will be doused with a huge barrel of hot oil in the rest of the world they call ‘reality.’

    BALKANIZATION

    Here’s a topic that we should elaborate on so that people are prepared, those who are not aware of America’s history, or the structure of law, and how the states have an elective relationship with the Federal Government.  The United States of America is a superstate, it’s not a country, like Switzerland is a country, it’s a CORPORATION, a Federal multi-national conglomorate comprised of 50 primary dealer-states, and a few ‘almost’ shareholders that can vote but don’t pay taxes or have Senators, like Puerto Rico.  Due to the massive POWER enjoyed by the USA, this structure is thought of as strong, but do not confuse these traits. In fact, USAs history was very haphazard, it wasn’t planned well, at least on a Federal level.  Many aspects of how the USA operates happen as a ‘problem-reaction-solution’ and all of a sudden we have FEMA, an agency which many think is an Apocalyptic dark horse ready to administer end of times, when in the reality it’s a welfare agency to help people after storms who don’t have insurance or cars to drive out of emergency areas or even money for a bus ticket.  The Federal government has become just something unique that will be studied for a long time.  

    What is ‘balkanization’ – simply, a term meaning the unwinding of USA as an entity, in its current form – such that we could see many countries or ‘states’ – US states are called ‘states’ but actually a ‘state’ is a COUNTRY.  France, is a STATE.  Although, France is part of the European Union.  The EU was significantly more properly organized as a Federation, as they had an example of USA and UK, and technology, and other tools at their disposal.  The EU is perfect example of why a superstate doesn’t work, or if you want a failed example, how about Yugoslavia?  A great idea, and while Tito was alive – worked great!  But, then the jackals emerged and the situation ‘balkanized’ – which is what’s happening now in America.  

    Take a look at Texas secession voting polls as example:

    Note the * – and this was conducted in August, before all recent events.  An angry critical mass could easily push this sentiment well above 50%, and remember these polls are of the politicians, the people probably already feel 80% about secession.  Trump uses good example of Obamacare and drawing lines around the states.  People in Texas, don’t care to be part of USA.  The republic of Texas will be happy to be out.  And New York, finally will say ‘we don’t want them, in OUR America’ – which will not include of course, the South (The Deep South) – and Mormon controlled Utah, California off in its own LALA land, and it remains to be seen how the midwest can partner with New England in this regard – possibly this can be the ‘real America’ – New England west until North Dakota line, including the upper Mississippi region, Wisconsin, Michican, Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, etc.  

    Is it so far fetched – is it such a bad thing?  Driving around in this new “Many America’s” one wouldn’t know the difference.  Anyway, few Americans now even know who the president is NOW.  We aren’t fighting anymore for Democracy, we’re fighting over who gets what.  What energy companies will get tax breaks.  Where the next Amazon factory will be built.  In South Carolina?  Or in Mexico?  Or Canada?  Or .. not?

    Balkanization of USA can be a good thing, it will be good for the markets, good for business – so those who are worried about such a scenario – don’t be!  It can be like living in Europe – only we’ll all speak English.  Well, if you’ve ever been to the Deep South, or Boston, you can say that it’s not easy to clearly understand native Americans from all parts of USA.  

    Revolution – will lead to balkanization.  Because states will react, to protect their interests.  Big business will fall back on the local government when the Feds fail.  It will be amazing how quickly interest pulls out of Washington and back into counties, cities, and states – when they see it doesn’t work.  

    There’s one huge PLUS in the current pay for play – lobbying system in Washington today.  The ‘real owners’ of USA – Corporations, UHNWi, foreign governments, special interests, and others – they can pull the plug at any time.  Without their support, Washington would be like a wet noodle.  Yes, the Army has nukes – but Facism has taken over so exclusively, nearly 60% of the CIA operations are OUTSOURCED!  That means a rogue general, without the support of Raytheon, Lockheed, and Boeing, would be a target not only of the Army but of foreign armies as well.  Unlike previous times, war cannot be started by assasinating the Archduke.

    But – going back to the original point – the powers to be have gone so far in this election to push this system to the brink of collapse – an Illegal HRC victory can break the system.  People can simply lose faith.  Not go to work.  Not buy coca-cola.  Throw their garbage on the street.  Park their cars on interstate highways.  Throw TVs out of windows.  Stop drinking beer.  Don’t pay taxes.  Don’t take loans.  Learn foreign languages.  Create free puppet shows.  Write books.  Use their local libraries.  Stop driving on interstate highways.  Stop using social media.  Deleting bad files from their computers.  Digging gardens.  Reforming land for use.  Painting pictures.  Creating art with 3d printers.  

    The world is such a big, interesting place – this whole debate doesn’t deserve our time.  Who cares if Trump is a bad person, an egoist, whatever.  He’s not in prison.  He represents what America REALLY IS – like it or not.  If he loses fair and square, we can wait another 8 years.  But if HRC is elected due to voting fraud, machines that will ONLY vote for HRC (as we saw in the 2000 presidential election, and countless local elections) – we can expect huge social fallout, and probably, most likely, the beginning of America’s own BREXIT, where states will one way or another drop out of this “USA” system.  

    US taxpayers spend hundreds of billions of dollars paying taxes to keep this system going, by blind faith.  USA is a modern religion.  If only a small fraction of that tax money was spent on useful things, such as planting trees, building roads or paving roads, building schools and other various buildings, planting crops for consuming, heck even making beer – would be better than giving it to the federal government – economically speaking (you should always pay your taxes!).

    Take a look at this overlay of a new ‘potential’ America, overlay on Federal Reserve ‘districts’ – interesting why the Fed has these ‘districts’ isn’t it, 12 of them.. how biblical of them… 

    To learn more about the way the world works, checkout Splitting Pennies – which explains politics from the perspective of REALITY (which in the case of politics = money, or FOREX).  Forex = money value.

  • LaTeST CIA PoLL…

    LATEST POLL

  • Visualizing The Slow Death Of Traditional Media

    Bill Gates once famously said that we systematically overestimate the change that will occur in two years, while underestimating the change that will come in the next ten. As Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins notes, the ongoing conversation about the death of legacy media definitely fits that mold.

    The ongoing conversation about the death of legacy media definitely fits that mold.

    Over the last five to ten years, people have been talking about how the newspaper, magazine, or radio station would become all but obsolete. And while certainly things have changed in all of these industries, it’s clear that there has not been a full paradigm shift yet.

    Here is the evidence that we have finally reached that inflection point…

    Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

     

    Fixing the Plane

    In a recent interview at the City University of New York’s journalism school, Ken Lerer described the challenges of traditional media as follows:

    You have to fix the plane while you’re flying it.

    Lerer, a co-founder of the Huffington Post and currently the Chairman for Buzzfeed, is alluding to the fact that legacy media has to maintain old business models based on subscription and print ad revenue, while successfully venturing into the digital world. The latter category is already hard enough, even without taking into account the balancing act of the former.

    The moral of the story? Some of these “planes” are going to land safely, but most of them are going to crash and burn.

    The cost structure of legacy media just doesn’t make sense in today’s digital world. Overhead is high, and revenue is harder to find due to the limited success of paywalls, rampant ad blocking, and the steady fall in display ad prices due to the emergence of programmatic bidding.

    Legacy Revenues

    Why has legacy media been so slow to adopt change? Why don’t they just lay off half of their staff, ditch print operations, and start from scratch?

    It’s because their major revenue sources are as slow at adopting as they are.

    In 2015, there was only one age demographic with more than half of its constituents reading a daily newspaper, and that was “65 years old and up”:

    Daily Readership of Newspapers

    That said, the people that still read newspapers are among the wealthiest people in the country. Warren Buffett, for example, reads five a day. But even he does not know how to save the print industry from its woes.

    Meanwhile, Madison Avenue has been notoriously slow at evolving to meet the needs of the digital revolution. If the biggest advertisers are still demanding the status quo, it makes it very difficult to “fix the plane”.

    New Models

    The most noticeable signal of change, however, is the relative success of new media companies such as Vice, Buzzfeed, and Vox – and the fact that some of their largest backers are from the old guard.

    All of the above companies are “unicorns” valued at $1 billion or more by private investors, which include venture capital stalwarts such as Andreessen Horowitz, Accel Partners, Khosla Ventures, RRE Ventures, or Lerer Hippeau.

    More importantly, however, they’ve also posted strategic investments from legacy media companies that are trying to wisely hedge their bets. Some of these include NBC Universal, The Walt Disney Company, 21st Century Fox, and Hearst.

    Digital will become the largest channel for ad revenue globally by 2019 – investors and companies that believe in the media business should position themselves accordingly.

  • Nuclear War Is On The Horizon: "This Is Not Just Talk… Action Has Been Taken"

    Submitted by Jeremiah Johnson (nom de plume of a retired Green Beret of the United States Army Special Forces (Airborne)) via SHTFPlan.com,

    As the U.S. elections draw nearer, the amount of bellicose rhetoric from politicians and key military commanders (in truth, “politicians” as well) has been increasing.  The main focus of that rhetoric has been directed toward Russia, and is also “blathered” in the direction of China, North Korea, and Iran when it suits U.S. political interests.  The problem is that all of it is not just talk: action has been taken, especially regarding Russia and the Syrian theatre of operations.

    Within the past several weeks, the U.S. has bombed Syrian troops, killing 62 outside of Deor ez-Zor in airstrikes and then admitting to doing so “mistakenly.”  The Russians responded by firing up a UN/coalition convoy almost immediately after.  Russian naval artillery then took out a command post with approximately 30 “coalition” officers, some of them being Americans.  The U.S. then made itself responsible (indirectly) for an attack on the Russian Embassy in Damascus, Syria: anti-Assad Islamic militants did the job, and these have support with funding and materials of the U.S.

    These “cat-and-mouse” exchanges have not been new by any means, as evidenced by the aerial “Top-Gun” provocative fly-by’s that have been occurring all year long, in Syria as well as in Eastern Europe.  The U.S. has retracted the cease fire agreement and suspended all operations and discussions with Russia pertaining to Syria.  What is new is the level that the rhetoric has reached…rhetoric that is no longer rhetorical but actually constitutes direct threats against Russia.

    On September 29, 2016 the Washington Post reported these words from U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter:

    “Across the Atlantic, we’re refreshing NATO’s nuclear playbook – to better integrate conventional and nuclear deterrence, to ensure we plan and train like we’d fight, and to deter Russia from thinking it can benefit from a nuclear use in a conflict with NATO.”

    The irony of that statement is evident.  While the U.S. emplaces missile batteries in Germany, Romania, and Moldova, Russia has not responded by placing missiles in either Cuba or Venezuela, two countries she holds strong ties with both militarily and economically.  Carter champions deterrence while simultaneously works to increase U.S. nuclear and conventional buildups in Eastern Europe.  But it doesn’t stop there with his words.  This was reported by George Ourfalian of AFP in an article entitled US Using Syrian Crisis to ‘Wage a Surrogate War’ Against Russia, on October 4, 2016:

    “US State Department spokesman John Kirby has made strong statements regarding Russia’s involvement in Syria, claiming that if Russia will not cooperate with the US, Moscow will keep sending troops home in body bags.”

    Strong words, and quite bellicose originating with a State Department spokesman completely removed from harm’s way.  Then this came out today, the date of this writing on October 5th as reported by Alex Jones’ Prison Planet:

    “I want to be clear to those who wish to do us harm…. the United States military – despite all of our challenges, despite our [operational] tempo, despite everything we have been doing – we will stop you and we will beat you harder than you have ever been beaten before. Make no mistake about that.” 

    General Mark Milley, U.S. Army Chief of Staff

    Milley was directing these words toward Russia.  He went on to describe the next coming war, as such:

    “[The next war will] be highly lethal, unlike anything our Army has experienced at least since World War II,” and would involve fighting in “highly populated urban areas.”

    Did the General mean overseas, or in the United States?  The Russians are currently (until the 7th of October) conducting nuclear evacuation drills involving over 40 million people.  Everyone from Putin and his general staff to local Moscow reporters believe that a nuclear war started by the United States is just on the horizon.  Just this week, Putin shelved an agreement between Russia and the U.S. to reduce the amount of Plutonium that can be converted into nuclear warheads.

    That agreement had been forthcoming since Obama initiated it in 2012, but Putin was straightforward in his reasoning behind cancelling things on Russia’s end from PrepBlog on 10/3/16 that because of U.S. belligerence, Russia needs:

    “…urgent measures to defend the security of the Russian Federation.”

    Putin and the Russian people believe the U.S.’s actions are going to lead to a nuclear conflict initiated by the United States.  The leadership of the U.S. is made up of politicians who began their careers as Marxist-Socialists.  Traitors now have their fingers on the triggers of the nuclear warheads, aided by “yes-men” of the general staffs who will not remember their oaths to the Constitution of the United States and the American people.  They will ignore that these charges take precedence above any orders given by a petty, dope-smoking, Marxist community organizer of dubious citizenship who was “emplaced” into office to destroy the country.

    Instead of statesmen and diplomats, we now have self-interested, politically-motivated belligerents backing Russia and other nations into corners and pushing them toward war.  How long the war of words will be continued is unknown; however, when the missiles begin to fly you can be certain of something.  You can rest assured that the men who spoke those words will be in bunkers and other safe places and out of harm’s way…paid for by the American taxpayer.

  • Russian Government Officials Told To Immediately Bring Back Children Studying Abroad

    In Europe, when it gets serious, you have to lie… at least if you are an unelected bureaucrat like Jean-Claude Juncker. In Russia, however, when it gets serious, attention immediately turns to the children.

    Which is why we read a report in Russian website Znak published Tuesday, according to which Russian state officials and government workers were told to bring back their children studying abroad immediately, even if means cutting their education short and not waiting until the end of the school year, and re-enroll them in Russian schools, with some concern. The article adds that if the parents of these same officials also live abroad “for some reason”, and have not lost their Russian citizenship, should also be returned to the motherland. Znak cited five administration officials as the source of the report.

    The “recommendation” applies to all: from the administration staff, to regional administratiors, to lawmakers of all levels. Employees of public corporations are also subject to the ordinance. One of the sources said that anyone who fails to act, will find such non-compliance to be a “complicating factor in the furtherance of their public sector career.” He added that he was aware of several such cases in recent months.

    It appears that the underlying reason behind the command is that the Russian government is concerned about the optics of having children of the Russian political elite being educated abroad, while their parents appear on television talking about patriotism and being “surrounded by enemies.”

    While we doubt the impacted children will be happy by this development, some of the more patriotic locals, if unimpacted, are delighted. Such as Vitaly Ivanov, a political scientist who believes that the measure to return children of officials from studying abroad, is “long overdue.” According Ivanoc, the education of children of the Russian elite abroad is subject to constant ridicule and derision against the ruling regime. “People note the hypocrisy of having a centralized state and cultivating patriotism and anti-Western sentiment, while children of government workers study abroad. You can not serve two gods, one must choose.”

    On the other hand, political analyst Stanislav Belkovsky quoted by Znak, believes that such decisions should be approached with more pragmatism. Such a recommendation is more likely to lead to an outflow of officials from the state, rather than allow the return of the children studying at elite foreign universities. He also warned of attempts to recreate an echo chamber such as that experienced after the failed July coup attempt on Turkey’s President Erdogan.

    But what he said next was more disturbing: “On the one hand, this is all part of a package of measures to prepare the elites for some ‘big war’ even if it is rather conditional, on the other hand – this is another blow to the unity of President Putin with his own elite” Belkovsky said. He adds that the Western sanctions launcedh in March 2014, had sought to drive a wedge between Putin and elites. In response, the Kremlin began to act precisely according to the logic of these sanctions. “But while a ban for having assets in the West is one thing, and understanable, when it comes to a ban for offshore health and education services, the blowback will be far greater, as it represents a far more important element of the establishment’s life strategy.”

    Ultimately the motivation behind Putin’s decision is unclear: whether it is to show Russia’s high-ranking oligarchs who is boss, to boost a sense of patriotism among the nation by sending a symbolic message that the west is no longer a welcome destination for Russia’s rich kids, or just a preemptive move of repatriating of any individuals affiliated with Russian politics for other unknown reasons; however it underscores the severity of the ongoing diplomatic crisis and just how significant the upcoming isolation between Russia and the West is likely to become in the coming months – unless of course tensions deescalate dramatically in the very near future – resulting in even greater collapse in global commerce and a further slowdown to world economic growth, which may ultimately lead to an armed conflict, whether regional or global, as the only possible outcome.

  • Reuters Thinks Hillary's Key Vulnerability Is That She's Just Too Awesome

    After taking a substantial lead in the latest NBC/WSJ poll, Reuters is now apparently worried that Clinton’s only remaining vulnerability, if any, might just be that she’s a bit too awesome.  As Reuters notes, if Trump continues to tank in the polls then Clinton supporters might just fail to show up on election day leaving Clinton without the “political capital she would need to drive through her agenda.”  Or, in a worst case scenario, Reuters figures Clinton could still lose the race if Republican voter turnout is substantial. 

    While voter turnout might be a problem for Hillary in November (more on this later) we suspect this has more to do with her criminal investigation by the FBI, pay-for-play scandals surrounding the Clinton Foundation and/or the latest email leaks from WikiLeaks, all of which are leading to massive distrust of the Democratic nominee, and not so much because of her extreme awesomeness.  That said, it was a really nice try at impartial reporting…Reuters definitely scores great style points for the unique approach.

    We would also point out that media cycles tend to be very short in modern politics.  As an example, Hillary’s “medical episode” on 9/11 only impacted her polling numbers for about 10 days (see chart below).  Now, while there could certainly be more Trump bombshells in the coming weeks, it’s probably a bit presumptuous of Reuters to think that this election is over, 30 days before election day, because of a single “hit piece” from the Clinton camp.   

    RCP

     

    The poll that seems to be causing some angst for the “journalists” at Reuters is the following NBC/WSJ poll that showed Clinton with a 9-point lead over Trump.  As Reuters notes, much of Hillary’s “support” simply comes from the “Never Trump” camp of voters who are much less likely to show up on election day if things look bleak for Trump in the polls.

    Opinion polls show that many voters are backing Clinton primarily to stop Trump, the Republican nominee, from getting into the White House. If they believe he has no hope of winning, then what would their motivation be to turn up at the polls?

     

    In a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll about half of all Clinton supporters said they were backing her to keep Trump from winning. By contrast, just 36.5 percent said it was because of Clinton’s policies and just 12.6 percent said it was because they like her personally.

     

    “This election cannot be just a referendum on Donald Trump,” said Arun Chaudhury, creative director of Revolution Messaging, a left-leaning consulting firm that oversaw the online media operation of former Clinton rival, Senator Bernie Sanders.

     

    Clinton’s central message, he said, has been that “everyone has to step up and stop Donald Trump from being president, not step up and make Hillary Clinton president.”

     

    Of course, as we pointed out earlier today, there were a lot of “issues” with the above poll which calls into question it’s credibility (see “First Post-Debate Poll Gives Hillary A Significant Lead… And A Familiar Problem Emerges“). Recall that in the last NBC/WSJ poll conducted over the weekend, the representation of those polled was notably skewed, leaning significantly to the left, with 43% Democrat and Democrat leaners, 36% Republican and Republican leaners, and 12% strictly Independents.

    Well, a quick look at the just released NBC poll reveals precisely the same issue:

    In yet another poll the distribution of the of those questioned leans substantially to the left, as follows:

    • Democrat and Democrat leaners 44%    
    • Republican and Republican leaners 37%    
    • Independents 12%

    (polling details and methodology here)

    But the skewed sample wasn’t the only issue as we also pointed out that the poll was conducted by Geoffrey Garin who works for a Hillary Super PAC.

    NBC/WSJ Poll

     

    But wait, it gets better.

    If you take a quick look at the recent financial connection between, Geoff Garin, Hart Research Associates and Hillary Clinton’s Priorities USA Super-PAC you’ll find that $220,500, in the month of September alone, was paid by Hillary Clinton’s Priorities USA Super-PAC to Hart Research Associates (FEC filings -HERE-). 

    NBC/WSJ Poll

    NBC/WSJ Poll

     

    Of course, voter turnout should also be a huge concern for the Hillary team but not for the reasons that Reuters points out.   

    Unprecedented black voter turnout was a huge component of Obama’s victories in 2008 and 2012.  Per the chart below from the New York Times, after running in the low-to-mid 50% range for decades, black voter participation surged to over 60% for Obama in 2008 and 2012, the highest ever recorded

    Meanwhile, black voter turnout in the midterm elections remained fairly constant through 2012 indicating that people were really just showing up to vote for Obama and not necessarily because of a new level of political engagement overall. 

    So, the question is, should Hillary expect the same level of unprecedented black voter turnout that Obama was able to garner?  Apparently, her campaign is not convinced and that’s why, according to Leslie Wimes, President of the Democratic African-American Women Caucus, they’re in “full panic mode.”

    Black Voter Turnout

     

    According to the numbers, Hillary has every reason for concern.  Per Politico, in 2008 and 2012, Obama received 95% of the 1.7mm votes cast by black voters in Florida.  Unfortunately for Hillary, a recent poll from Florida Atlantic University found that she is only polling at 68% among black voters while Trump is polling at 20%.  Now, if you assume that black voter turnout drops just 5% in 2016 and that Hillary’s support drops from 95% to 70% that could cost her over 500,000 votes in a state that Obama only won by roughly 75,000.  When factoring in the higher support for Trump this could swing the overall Florida race by 7 points…not a good sign when Obama narrowly won the state by less than 1%.

    In conclusion, for all the worried Reuters journalists, while their might be legitimate reasons to be concerned for your chosen candidate, we’re fairly certain that you can take, “she’s just too awesome,” off your list of concerns.

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Today’s News 11th October 2016

  • The Demise Of The EU

    Submitted by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com,

    Back in the ‘90s, when the EU had ceased to be a mere trade agreement and had become a full-blown oligarchy that would eventually gobble up most of Western and Eastern Europe, my belief was that it had not only been a doomed concept, it had additionally been rushed into being far too quickly. Although, at that time, the governments of Europe were gleefully joining up. I said, “I give it twenty years, tops.”

    It was an offhanded remark and, in truth, I was throwing a dart at a board regarding the time period, but twenty years did seem about right to me. And this shouldn’t have been a difficult prophecy. There were three major reasons for its validity.

    “Good Fences Make Good Neighbors”

    First off, the countries of Europe had perennially been at war with each other since long before gunpowder was invented. Europe is basically tribal and there is simply no way that the mindsets and objectives of, say, the British are going to be the same as, say, the French. If under the EU diktat, British fishermen were then told that they could no longer fish their own waters because Brussels had decided to give British territorial waters to the French so that they could fish, there would be greater cause for enmity between countries than ever before in history. (The quote above from Robert Frost was meant to pertain to individual property owners, but it applies equally to modern-day tribes.)

    Sudden Change Breeds Resentment

    Second, the rulings from Brussels came in a torrent after its formation. Nearly every country in Europe was shoehorned into fitting in with Union objectives. As a result, whilst some countries gained some advantages, all countries lost the basic freedom that comes with self-determination. Those who objected were threatened that they’d better behave. Those who suggested departing from the union were further threatened that they’d be shut out of EU trade and destroyed economically.

    Most people behave like sheep in most situations. That’s a basic trait of mankind, in any culture, in any age. However, sudden change (in either events or public opinion) often sparks revolt. Certainly King George of Britain discovered this when he chose to make up for a wartime monetary shortfall by imposing a stamp tax on his colonies in America. A decade later, the French people, when they heard (falsely) that Queen Marie Antoinette had replied to the shortage of bread amongst her minions, “Let them eat cake,” it served as a jolt to public opinion that would send many Frenchmen over the edge to the point of rebellion.

    The elite in Brussels have grossly overplayed their hand, time and time again, by imposing sudden and dramatic change on the countries of Europe, whilst behaving arrogantly, bringing many of Europe’s people to the boiling point.

    It Wasn’t the People that Joined the Union

    To add to the tyranny, no country’s population voted in a majority to join the union. Half-hearted referenda were undertaken by some countries, but voter turnouts were often poor. In other countries, the referenda were not binding. In the end, each government went ahead with only minority support and plunged headlong into a union that would benefit them, the leaders, but would not serve their people well.

    The EU was, from its inception, the antithesis of “government of the people, by the people, for the people.” It was, instead, an “uber-government of the political leaders, for the political leaders, by the political leaders.”

    All the above contributed to the likelihood (at least in my view) of a short-lived EU.

    But the easy task is to predict the event. The more difficult task is to predict an approximate date, so that investment decisions and major life decisions may be timed to avoid the individual becoming collateral damage. The important question therefore would then be, “What will be the trigger to begin the collapse?”

    As the years passed and the cracks in the EU started to appear, the race was on as to whether the undoing would be as a result of the economic failure of the southern member-states, or by the social strains of immigration that Brussels forced onto its member-countries. In each case, it was predictable that the political leaders would defend the EU policies at all costs, although each would increasingly lose the support of constituents by doing so.

    On the economic front, all eyes were on Greece and the other Mediterranean members, as they clung stubbornly to their collectivist economic policies. They would continue to bleed red ink at the expense of their more economically responsible Northern brethren. Along the way, in order to appease her voters, German Chancellor Angela Merkel stated firmly that the EU would not bail out the Italian banks; that they would have to rely on bail-ins (a measure that had been approved in 2014 for all EU countries). Then the news came that the German Deutsche Bank was on the ropes, threatening to cause a bloodbath for the German people. Germany, having lost billions of its money to the other EU countries, would need $14 billion to pay for Deutsche Bank’s mis-sold mortgage-backed securities and that would just be the beginning.

    The German people had paid through the nose to support other EU members, but a line had been drawn in the sand as to future bail-outs, just before Germany realised its own crisis.

    Suddenly, Mrs. Merkel has been caught between her obligation as Chancellor to the German people and her personal commitment to the EU. Her problem is exacerbated by the fact that she is up for re-election in 2017.

    Ironically, in the race for the collapse of the EU, it may be that the trigger that begins the process is Germany, the country that was most responsible for its creation.

    The comparison with the Titanic is an apt one. Like the Titanic, the EU was presented as a “super-state”, one that would be bigger and better than all the others in Europe. It was declared unsinkable. Yet, soon after it was launched, it hit an unexpected iceberg from which it could not recover.

    Years from now, historians and economists will debate the identity of the EU iceberg. Some will say Brexit, others will say Deutsche Bank. Still others will cite events that we have not yet seen. However, for our purposes, it matters little. The dominoes have begun to fall and all of us that may be impacted by an EU collapse should make sure that we have all our own ducks in a row – to assure that we are impacted as minimally as possible.

  • Behold, The Trumpening

    Submitted by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

    If the US presidential debate last night showed anything, it must be that just about everyone has dug themselves into their trenches and had no desire whatsoever to ever come out.

    This seemed especially clear on the Hillary side, which appeared to include -to an extent- ‘moderators’ Anderson Cooper and Martha Raddatz, judging from their interruptions. But, granted, they were the only biased side in the discussion, so we don’t really know what trenches the Republicans have dug.

    The biggest problem with biased moderators is that people notice their bias. Not those who are on one side already, it passes them by. But others do. And perhaps more importantly, -in this case-, Hillary’s team loses its ability to adopt a neutral view. And she will therefore hear so much praise that she can’t figure out if she’s not done too well.

    To illustrate that point: the main takeaway must be that Trump won the debate hands down, but that’s the opposite of what Hillary sympathizers concluded and what various polls said. It’s still true though, if only for one simple reason. That is, for 48 hours straight all talk and ‘reporting’ had been about Trumps lewd ‘words’ on the Access Hollywood tapes.

    Trump really was cornered, and he knew it, everyone knew it. But after the second debate, and within 90 minutes, most of the talk turned towards how he ‘threatened’ to jail Hillary. Now, that’s not what he said, but even if he had, it’s something a lot more people sympathize with than with his language on the tapes. That’s a lot of territory ‘conquered’.

    Meanwhile, even the likes of Paul Ryan don’t seem to grasp what happened overnight (he apparently think Hillary already won). What he doesn’t appear to see is, again, that Trump looked completely lost for 48 hours, but doesn’t look so lost now. There are 4 weeks and a day left in the campaign, and a lot can still happen.

    Look, Trump is a buffoon. The word could have been invented specifically to define him. And it would be a very bad idea to make him president of the US. But that doesn’t mean the idea of making Hillary president is any better. It may well be worse, for a variety of reasons.

    What the debate made clear once more is that America stands face to face with itself, it’s looking in a giant mirror, one which -only- in choice moments does not contort its own image, and America finds there’s nothing to like about what it sees in those brief moments in that mirror. And then therefore immediately proceeds to contort that image like it’s used to doing.

    America may not like to look at its own stone cold hard reality, but it’s better than any culture ever in painting a picture of itself that it does like. In fact, it’s the first nation ever that made exactly that its main goal in life.

    The Brits, the French and the Dutch try to hide their dark colonial and slave trading pasts, but America built an entire culture around contorting its history, right there in Hollywood, with ‘stars’ like John Wayne and John Ford being celebrated for movies that celebrate the annihilation and violent submission by the white man of both Native Americans and African slave populations.

    In that same vein, the ‘heroic exploits’ of US soldiers in Muslim countries from Libya to Afghanistan in the past decades are now a major topic for the next generation of twisted history in movies and other media, in which invasions, drone killings and carpet bombings are portrayed as acts of bravery that warrant Purple Hearts. While the people whose lives and cultures are destroyed are swept under the first available carpet.

    But that’s another story for another time. Back to last night’s debate. Trump may have won big, but he left some substantial scraps on the table that he may yet come to regret. Perhaps he was too focused on digging himself out of the ‘grab that pu**y’ hole -and yes, that is foul- to notice he was already out. Hard to say. He has the intuition, but does he have the brain?!

    The first thing either The Donald or one of his team members must hammer down, urgently, is the way past stupid narrative of Russia’s involvement in US politics. Hillary repeatedly brought it up again, and it’s cheap fare for her, she can say anything she likes on the issue, no-one will contradict her or check any facts.

    There were all these alleged fact-checkers ‘active’, but they dare not check the facts on this (there are none). Anything the Democratic Party wants to hide, it is free to hide behind Putin. No questions asked. That is insane at best, and Trump should have halted the narrative.

    As should Cooper and Raddatz, and the army of fact checkers, but the fix was in. The low point must have been the allegation that Wikileaks is linked to Putin. Really? Come with facts, or forever hold your tongue. Too much cheap fare, hollow as can be, and Hillary build much of her story on it. Not good on the part of the Trump people.

    I was reading an August 2 piece by Timothy O’Brien at Bloomberg the other day on Trump’s Russian connections, and Tim seems to start off with good hope of ‘inking the deal’, but ends up admitting there’s no there there.. The entire narrative of Trump’s Russian connections is as false as John Wayne’s heroism in slaughtering Native Americans. He should have cut that tale short in the debate, He didn’t.

    Hillary gets to say, without any interruption or fact checking that “Russia has decided who it wants to be president, and it’s not me.” and that is way beyond any comprehension, really. There is zero proof of that, as there is of everything the US claims about Russia.

    For all we know, Putin would much prefer Hillary to be president, because he sees Trump as a much stronger opponent when the chips are down. Hillary’s allegations are just a narrative she thinks will appeal to voters. She’s wrong. At least when it comes to those who wouldn’t have voted for her regardless of the narrative.

    The second issue Trump desperately needs to put to bed is the one of his taxes. And mind you, I did say Trump should not ever be president of the US. That’s my perspective.

    Hillary again last night painted a picture of Trump leaving US veterans out in the cold by not paying enough taxes. Trump retorted by saying Buffett (not Jimmy) and Soros do the same. But that’s a huge missed opportunity.

    Paying taxes in America, and in any western nation, is not some voluntary exercise; there are laws, and they are some of the most stringent and most punishable there are. You cheat on your taxes, and the IRS or their equivalent in other countries have the power to go after you like no other government institution. Tax cheats very often go to jail.

    That none of this has happened to Trump means, it’s that simple, that he did not break the law. He has used to the law to his advantage, just like everyone else who could, sure, But there’s not an inch of evidence, not even a hint, that he did anything illegal.

    Hillary’s campaign is well aware of this, so the issue gets presented as some -pretty opaque- moral issue: ‘You didn’t do well by our veterans’. But what could he have done? Should Trump be the only American, or only western citizen, to tell the IRS to please take another extra $10 million or so, or $100 million, after they were done auditing him? So he wouldn’t be attacked 20 years on when running for office? It makes no sense in any sense.

    And yes, the situation is very different if you’re on a payroll for some company, you can’t deduct what Trump could. But he’s not alone in that; in fact, all American entrepreneurs are in the same boat, and they will all try to swing that boat in the direction that fits them best. And Hillary loves these entrepreneurs as much as anyone when it suits her purposes. And her accountants do the same thing, they follow the same principle. Perhaps for lesser amounts, but that’s not the point.

    Trump’s taxes are a non-issue, a brainless narrative. Not something for Hillary or anyone else to use as some innuendo-laden topic, anymore than Trump can use Hillary’s tax files against her in an ‘innuendo illegal’ way. Any judgment on that is up to the IRS, not either the Republican or Democratic campaigns. It’s ridiculous that Hillary can use that in a debate, and Trump and his people should have shut that venue down long ago.

    But anyway, we have that 4 weeks and a day to go, and there’ll by much more to ‘enjoy’. Still, Trump came back last night from very very far away. No matter what CNN and other polls may say. Those polls are as biased as the night’s moderators.

    It might be a good idea to realize that a year ago nobody ever gave Trump a shot at the gold medal, and his support never came from the people who conform with CNN (which nobody watches stateside anyway) or ABC.

    We’ll talk again soon. Meanwhile, I’m with Susan Sarandon, who says bring it on, bring on Trump, because she despises Hillary, and because:

    Donald Trump will bring the revolution immediately; if he gets in then things will really explode.”

    Sort of like what I wrote before, that if you must choose between two very bad options, might as well pick the worst and get it over with:

  • U.S. Intelligence Meddles In US Presidential Election: Backs Hillary Clinton

    Submitted by Alexander Mercouris of The Duran

    U.S. Intelligence meddles in U.S. Presidential election: backs Hillary Clinton, tries to stop Donald Trump

     

    The fact and evidence-free statement by US intelligence that Russia was behind the DNC leak is an attempt to swing the US Presidential election in Hillary Clinton's favour and amounts to the direct interference of US intelligence in a democratic US election.

    The single most important event of the US Presidential election took place last week and to my knowledge it has gone completely unreported.

    This was not the video tape of Donald Trump’s grotesque and deeply offensive sexual banter from 2005. 

    It was the public confirmation that an intelligence agency is directly interfering in an ongoing US Presidential election. 

    The intelligence agency in question is not however that of Russia as is being reported.  It is that of the United States itself.

    To understand why this is so, consider the statement US intelligence published last week on the subject of alleged Russian hacking of the Democratic National Committee and of other US agencies involved in the election.  It reads as follows:

    “The U.S. Intelligence Community (USIC) is confident that the Russian Government directed the recent compromises of e-mails from US persons and institutions, including from US political organizations. The recent disclosures of alleged hacked e-mails on sites like DCLeaks.com and WikiLeaks and by the Guccifer 2.0 online persona are consistent with the methods and motivations of Russian-directed efforts. These thefts and disclosures are intended to interfere with the US election process. Such activity is not new to Moscow—the Russians have used similar tactics and techniques across Europe and Eurasia, for example, to influence public opinion there. We believe, based on the scope and sensitivity of these efforts, that only Russia’s senior-most officials could have authorized these activities.”

    (bold italics added)

    The statement is an implicit admission that US intelligence has no evidence to back its allegations of Russian hacking. 

    It is merely “confident” – not “sure” – that it is the Russians who are behind the hacking, and it is clear from the statement that it arrived at this conclusion purely through inference: because the hacks supposedly were “consistent with the methods and motivations of Russian-directed efforts”.

    US intelligence assumes the Russians were behind the hack not because it knows this to be so but in part because of what it believes Russian motives to be.

    The statement backs its claim with a textual trick.  It says “the Russians have used similar tactics and techniques across Europe and Eurasia”.  It then immediately follows these words with the words “for example”. 

    These lead to the expectation that an actual example of such Russian “tactics and techniques” is about to follow.  Instead what is provided are the fact free words “to influence public opinion there”. 

    The words “for example” lend nothing to the meaning of the statement, which would be exactly the same without them.  These two words as used in the statement are actually meaningless.   That is a sure sign that their presence in the statement is intended to confuse the casual reader, and that this is true of the statement as a whole.  

    The words are designed to create a subliminal impression to a casual reader that the Russians have been caught doing this sort of thing before, without however providing a single actual example when this was the case.

    Demonstrating how thin the case of Russian government actually is, the statement then goes on to say

    “Some states have also recently seen scanning and probing of their election-related systems, which in most cases originated from servers operated by a Russian company. However, we are not now in a position to attribute this activity to the Russian Government.”

    (bold italics added)

    In other words US intelligence admits the mere fact servers operated by a Russian company may have been used for “scanning and probing” – and presumably also for hacking – is not in itself proof of the involvement of the Russian government.

    This is consistent with what I have heard, which is that skilled and well-resourced hackers can use compromised machines to carry out hacks by remote access, and that the mere discovery that a particular machine has been used in a hack does not in and of itself implicate the owner.   (I should stress I am not an expert in this field and I may have misunderstood this.  However it appears to be what US intelligence is saying).

    This part of the statement seems to me intended to prevent challenges to the eventual outcome of the election based on US intelligence’s claims of Russian hacking.  US intelligence does not want to be drawn into post-election arguments about the validity of the election outcome, which might lead to demands that it make public its “evidence” of Russian hacking.  In the process US intelligence however casts doubt on what is almost certainly the only actual evidence it has of Russian state involvement in the hacking.

    In summary, the statement is a mere statement of opinion, it is not a statement of fact, and the evidence upon which it is based is threadbare. 

    Moreover since the DNC hack is a criminal offence, it is a statement of opinion made about a matter which is presumably being investigated by the police. 

    The relevant police agency is presumably the FBI, which significantly is not a co-author of the statement. 

    That in turn begs a host of questions: has the FBI been shown the “evidence” upon which US intelligence expresses its opinion and has made the statement?  Has it asked to see this “evidence”?  Was it invited to co-author the statement?  What does the FBI think of the public involvement of US intelligence in a domestic criminal matter which falls within the FBI’s exclusive competence?

    If the statement is merely a statement of opinion based on inference of which guesses about Russian “motivations” apparently form a major part, and one which moreover concerns a matter which is or ought to be the subject of investigation by the police and not therefore the subject of this sort of comment, why was it published at all?

    The short answer is in order to help Hillary Clinton win the US Presidential election. 

    To that end the statement fulfils two purposes: firstly, it discredits the content of any leaks that might otherwise damage Hillary Clinton’s campaign by lending credence to her claim that they are part of a Russian ‘dirty tricks’ campaign against her; and secondly, it lends credence to the claim popularised by Hillary Clinton’s campaign and by Hillary Clinton’s supporters in the media that Donald Trump is Putin’s candidate and that Putin is trying to help him win the election. 

    That the second is one of the purposes of  statement is proved by its reference to US intelligence’s “belief” that the leak was authorised by “Russia’s senior-most officials”.  This is clearly intended to refer to Putin, and is intended to give the impression that Putin himself personally authorised the DNC leak in order to damage Hillary Clinton and to help Trump win the election and become President.

    US intelligence has meddled in elections in other countries on numerous occasions starting with the Italian parliamentary elections of 1948

    To my knowledge this is however the first occasion that US intelligence has directly and publicly meddled in a US national election, acting to help one candidate defeat another. 

    It matters not whether this was done by US intelligence on its own initiative, or whether it was pressured to do so by officials of the Obama administration or of Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

    Either way the disturbing truth must now be faced: the practice of US intelligence meddling in and trying to influence national elections has now been imported home to the US.

  • "The World Has Reached A Dangerous Point" – Gorbachev Sees Rising Threat Of Nuclear War

    As Russia and America creep ever closer to outright conflict, now that the diplomatic facade of the proxy war in Syria falls away with every passing day, one voice if calling for the world to stop and reassess what it is doing. Former USSR leader Mikhail Gorbachev warned on Monday that the world has reached a “dangerous point” as tensions between Russia and the United States surge over the Syria conflict; a conflict which if escalated even fractionally further, could result in all out war between the two superpowers according to General Joseph Dunford.

    Gorbachev blamed the current state of affairs between Russia and US on the “collapse of mutual trust” and urged the sides to resume dialogue and push towards demilitarization and complete nuclear disarmament.

    “I think the world has reached a dangerous point. I don’t want to give any concrete prescriptions but I do want to say that this needs to stop. We need to renew dialogue. Stopping it was the biggest mistake.  Now we must return to the main priorities, such as nuclear disarmament, fighting terrorism and prevention of global environmental disasters. Compared to these challenges, all the rest slips into the background.” Gorbachev said in an interview with RIA Novosti.

    Relations between Moscow and Washington, already at their lowest since the Cold War over the Ukraine conflict, deteriorated sharply in recent days as the United States pulled the plug on Syria talks and accused Russia of hacking attacks.


    Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev (L) and U.S. President Ronald Reagan
    begin their mini-summit talks in Reykjavik October 11, 1986.

    As a result, last week Russia moved nuclear-capable Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad, near the hear of central Europe, an indication that a nuclear disarmament is the last thing on the mind of either Putin or Obama; quite the contrary a new nuclear arms race has begun. That, however, did not stop Gorbachev to preach the need for nuclear disarmament.

    “Of course, at this moment it is difficult to talk about moving towards a nuclear-free world, we must honestly admit it. But we should not forget: as long as there are nuclear weapons there is the threat of their use. It could be an accident, a technical malfunction of someone’s evil will – a madman or a terrorist,” the former Soviet leader said. Or a perfectly sane, administration official intent on starting a new world war to benefit his or her financial backers.

    In the interview, Gorbachev also reminded that in line with the nuclear non-proliferation agreement all of its signatories must hold talks on nuclear disarmament uniting the eventual full destruction of nuclear weapons.

    “The nuclear-free world is not a utopia, but rather an imperative necessity. But we can achieve it only through demilitarization of politics and international relations.”

    Gorbachev added that veterans of international politics, such as the “council of sages” chaired by former UN leader Kofi Annan, understood these problems and expressed hope that their voices would be heard by modern leaders. At the same time he emphasized that the main responsibility for global security lies on these modern leaders who would make the greatest mistake if they do not use the last chance to return international politics to a peaceful course.

    The former Soviet leader’s interview was published on Monday to coincide with the 30th anniversary of the USSR-US summit in Reykjavik, which eventually allowed the nuclear arms race to slow down and greatly contributed to the end of the Cold War. Ironically, it comes out at a time when the nuclear arms race is back front and center.

    Looking back to a more sensible time, Gorbachev reiterated that the Reykjavik summit was a major breakthrough. “First, we agreed on many issues and second, we managed to look over the horizon, see the perspective of a nuclear-free world,” he said.

    “It was very appealing that in the course of our negotiations President Ronald Reagan sincerely spoke about the necessity to rid the world of the weapons of mass destruction. We shared a common position on this issue.”

    Sadly, today that is no longer the case, and as we said over the weekend when we profiled the latest Russian nuclear escalation, the next move will be one by NATO and it will be proportional, as the west delivers even more nuclear weapons in close proximity to Russia in what will become a tit-for-tat “defection” from the game theoretical equilibrium, until the “accident, technical malfunction, madman or  terrorist” emerges and unleashes an unthinkable scenario.

  • Obama Econ Advisor Blames Back Pain And Video Games For Bad Labor Market

    Princeton professor and former Obama White House economist Alan Krueger would like for you to know that low labor force participation rates likely have nothing to do with Obama’s awful “jobs recovery”, stagnant real wages or soaring entitlements that provide massive disincentives to work.  Rather, his “thorough research” indicates that men are more likely dropping out of the labor force due to excessive back pain and/or because video gaming technology has become so amazing that young adults are just choosing to stay home instead.  Sadly, this is a true story.

    According to The Washington Examiner, Krueger’s “research” indicated that 47% of men, between the ages of 25 and 54, reported taking pain medication during the previous day.  Of those men, 40% said their pain prevented them from working.  To summarize, the awful labor market under Obama has nothing to do with his failed economic policies…it’s pure coincidence that as soon as Obama took office a massive percent of the overall working-age male population came down with severe back pain.  That seems reasonable.

    Nearly half of working-age men who aren’t in the labor force take daily pain medication, according to new research that highlights one alarming possible reason for weak labor force participation in the U.S.

     

    Of men between the ages of 25 and 54, 47 percent said that they took pain medication during the previous day in a survey commissioned by Princeton professor and former Obama White House economist Alan Krueger. For two-thirds of those men, the medication was prescribed.

     

    Those results line up with what Krueger found in government-conducted surveys, and they add a new explanation for low male labor force participation, namely that many men may be too sick or injured to work.

     

    Of the men who reported taking medication, 40 percent said that pain prevented them from working.

    Kreuger

     

    But back pain apparently isn’t the only thing keeping young men out of the work force.  Krueger also asserts that the improved quality of video gaming consoles has caused young people to increasingly choose “idleness” over work.  Yes, we’re sure it has nothing to do with minimal job growth and stagnant or declining real wages for America’s youth…video games makes a lot more sense.

    The analysis downplays some of the reasons that have been suggested for the drop. For instance, Krueger reports little evidence that disability insurance is increasingly a disincentive to work, as some economists have suggested.

     

    Instead, he focuses on the possibility that some working age people, especially men, have health problems, and that getting them back to work might necessitate increasing their access to healthcare.

     

    For younger working-age men, aged 21-30, video games also may be part of the problem, Krueger finds. While falling labor force participation for that group mostly reflects school attendance, idleness is also up. And that might be because, he finds, playing video games is more attractive than older forms of idleness, such as watching television. He discovers that young men out of the labor force spent 6.7 hours a week on average playing video games in the years 2012-2015, up from 3.6 hours a week in 2004-2007.

    Sounds like a simple little video gaming tax should clear up the unemployment problem among America’s youth. This could be a huge win for Democrats as they could raise taxes and solve unemployment with one simple bill…best of both worlds.

    And parents are actually paying Princeton nearly $100k a year for their kids to be taught this garbage.

  • "Why Do They Hate Us So?": One Western Scholar's Reply To A Worried Russian Student

    Submitted by Michael Jabara Carley via Strategic-Culture.org,

    I gave a lecture in Moscow during the spring about western-Soviet relations over the last century. With the partial exception of World War II, it is a narrative of unrelenting hostility. After I had finished, a student asked, «why do they hate us so?» The answer is not complicated. You cannot cross «da man» in the United States, that is, the powerful, wealthy US «deep state», which sets the rules for everyone else and enforces its worldwide hegemony against disobedient states and leaders.

    You could not get more disobedient than the Bolsheviks. In November 1917, or October according to Julian calendar, they seized power in Russia and declared their intention to make a world socialist revolution. You can imagine the indignation and anger of the western powers, all at war with Imperial Germany, looking over their shoulders to see that revolution had erupted in Russia. It’s a complicated story but not everyone in the west reacted blindly to the Bolshevik seizure of power; none other than the British Prime Minister David Lloyd George thought the Entente should back the Bolsheviks against the Germans. His idea was an early prototype of the eventual Grand Alliance.

    In 1918 there were few takers for that eccentric idea especially when the Bolsheviks annulled the tsarist state debt and nationalised banks and industries in which foreigners held billions in investments. In the west these actions struck at the heart of the capitalist world order, and for the next three years, the Entente sent money, arms and troops to overthrow the Soviet government.

    The Bolsheviks acted as defenders of the revolution but also as defenders of Russia. It was an easy transition since the so-called Allies, had they succeeded in reversing Soviet power, would have established a Russian semi-colony, much as they sought to do in the 1990s. The Poles too were mobilised against Soviet Russia, launching an offensive in April 1920, with tacit French support, to re-establish their 18th century eastern frontiers, including the city of Kiev. The Polish plan did not work out as intended, the Bolsheviks fought back, portraying themselves as defenders of the traditional Russian state. Admittedly it was an incongruous role for world revolutionaries, but if you scratched the skin of most Bolsheviks, you would find defenders of Russian national security interests.

    During the interwar years Soviet-western relations were almost always bad. The former Entente powers punished Soviet Russia for its refusal to pay the tsarist debts and compensate foreigners for nationalised property and equities. They applied economic sanctions to break the Soviet state where military force had not succeeded. The red scare, anti-Soviet electoral politics, and containment characterised US, British and French conduct during the 1920s. Those policies did not work. The Soviet government relied on its own resources to modernise its economy. Joseph Stalin’s policies were brutal and ruthless, but they led to the building of a powerful, industrialised state by the end of the interwar period.

    During the 1930s the Soviet government, recognising early on the menace of Hitlerite Germany, proposed collective security to the western powers, in fact, a defensive anti-Nazi alliance. At first there was some western interest in Soviet ideas, but not for long. One by one, the USSR’s putative allies reverted to what one Soviet diplomat, Ivan M. Maisky, called Sovietophobia and Russophobia. Adolf Hitler portrayed Germany as a bulwark against communism, and the French and British elites played into his hands. As Maisky put it, the great question of the decade was «Who is enemy no. 1, Nazi Germany or the USSR?» With notable exceptions, ruling elites in Europe got the answer wrong.

    You have to give Stalin credit for he stuck to collective security for six years, in spite of all the failures. Only in August 1939 did he abandon this policy when it became obvious that France and Britain were not serious about a war-fighting alliance against Nazi Germany. It was then that the Nazi-Soviet non-aggression pact was concluded. Western opinion was generally indignant, conveniently forgetting the Munich accords in 1938 and all the other western attempts to compose with Hitler. Even today Russophobic politicians, journalists and historians harp on the non-aggression pact to blacken Russia and its president Vladimir V. Putin. Such manipulations remind me of the Biblical parable of the mote and the beam. The west, then as now, should pull the beam out of its own eye before criticising the mote in the eye of Russia, Soviet or otherwise.

    Unable to count on France and Britain, Stalin concluded a modus vivendi with Hitler, not to make an «alliance» with him, but rather as one scorpion wary of another might do, circling and raising its tail high, ready to strike. Stalin did not want to fight alone against the NaziGermany, but he outsmarted himself because, as it turned out, the USSR was obliged to fight almost alone against the Wehrmacht for three years from 1941 to 1944. This was the period of the Grand Alliance against the Axis powers.

    I watched recently a Russian film about the Great Patriotic War. After some bloody fighting, one Red Army soldier asks another «what kind of allies are they, who let us do all the fighting against the Wehrmacht?» Not a bad question to ask. Perhaps it was unfair to Franklin Roosevelt, but not to Winston Churchill. FDR was a rare president who was able to keep at bay the Sovietophobic US «deep state». Churchill blew hot and cold about his Soviet allies, but as soon as the tide of battle turned against Hitler, he erupted about Russian «barbarians» and communist «crocodiles» even though some of his cabinet colleagues were scandalised.

     

    In April 1945, it took the US «deep state» only a fortnight after the death of FDR to persuade his successor, Harry Truman, to call into question the Grand Alliance. It was also a fortnight after VE Day in May 1945 that Churchill received a copy of «Operation Unthinkable», a plan he requested to make war against the USSR, stiffened with ten German divisions.

     

    The United States was quick to follow up with more realistic ideas on building up a West German «partial state» as the best way to contain or even roll back the Soviet presence in Europe. With the Marshall Plan in 1947, the United States was able to buy the loyalty of Western Europeans, transformed into dependent compradors. Stalin could not compete in that game of rich Uncle Sam, poor Uncle Joe.

     

    Having greased the rails with the Marshall plan and CIA money, NATO was established in 1949. Soviet propaganda portrayed the NATO «allies» as mere US ciphers. Little has changed since then. Present day NATO members remain compradors, obedient vassals of the United States, rather than defenders of the national interests of the countries they represent.

     

    It took another forty years for the USSR to collapse and disappear. That period was marked by visceral hostility, interrupted only by a brief period of cosmetic détente after the Cuban missile crisis in 1962. World War II had scarcely ended before the red scare and containment policies returned to the fore. It was Act II of the Cold War. In the 1980s the USSR tried to defeat an Islamic insurgency in Afghanistan supported by the United States. The Americans allied themselves with Islamist fundamentalists, most notably Osama bin Laden, portrayed as a hero then, who became a villain later. «Blowback», one American professor called it. Bin Laden was eventually shot by US Navy Seals in Pakistan. There were many other Wahhabis, however, to take his place.

    After the disappearance of the USSR, you might think the Americans would have declared victory and then offered a hand to the Russian rump state under Boris Yeltsin,. who played court jester in President Bill Clinton’s White House. Yeltsin claimed he had no choice but to submit to the Americans, but of course he had a choice. In 1991 he and two other Soviet politicians plotted the dissolutionof the USSR for their own political purposes. They sold out the country which the Bolsheviks had defended, and for which 26 million soldiers and civilians died during the Great Patriotic War.

    Yeltsin’s grovelling in Washington and his encouragement of his oligarchs’ looting of Russian national resources earned only American contempt. «Keep ‘em down» was the US policy; generosity was out. «We won, you lost,» the Americans proclaimed. Contrary to commitments made to the fatuous Mikhail S. Gorbachev about no NATO eastward expansion, NATO drove right up to Russia’s western frontiers.

     

    In 2000 when Putin was elected president, he publically promoted security and economic cooperation with Europe and the United States. After 9/11, he offered real assistance to Washington. The United States accepted the Russian help, but continued its anti-Russian policies. Putin extended his hand to the west, but on the basis of five kopeks for five kopeks. This was a Soviet policy of the interwar years. It did not work then and it does not work now.

    In 2007 Putin spoke frankly at the Munich conference on Security Policy about overbearing US behaviour. The «colour revolutions» in Georgia and the Ukraine, for example, and the Anglo-American war of aggression against Iraq raised Russian concerns. US government officials did not appreciate Putin’s truth-telling which went against their standard narrative about «exceptionalist» America and altruistic foreign policies to promote «democracy». Then in 2008 came the Georgian attack on South Ossetia and the successful Russian riposte which crushed the Georgian army.

     

    It’s been all down-hill since then. Libya, Syria, Ukraine, Yemen are all victims of US aggression or that of its vassals. The United States engineered and bankrolled a fascist coup d’état in Kiev and has attempted to do the same in Syria reverting to their «Afghan policy» of bankrolling, supplying and supporting a Wahhabi proxy war of aggression against Syria. Backing fascists on the one hand and Islamist terrorists on the other, the United States has plumbed the depths of malevolence. President Putin and Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov have made important concessions, to persuade the US government to avert catastrophe in the Middle East and Europe. To no avail, five kopeks for five kopeks is not an offer the United States understands. Assymetrical advantages is what Washington expects.

    One cannot reproach the Russian government for trying to negotiate with the United States, but this policy has not worked in the Ukraine or Syria. Russian support of the legitimate government in Damascus has exposed the US-led war of aggression and exposed its strategy of supporting Al-Qaeda, Daesh, and their various Wahhabi iterations against the Syrian government. US Russophobia is redoubled by Putin’s exposure of American support for Islamist fundamentalists and by Russia’s successful, up to now, thwarting of US aggression. Who does Putin think he is?

    From my observations, I would reply that President Putin is a plain-spoken Russian statesman, with the support of the Russian people behind him. For five kopeks against five kopeks, he will work with the United States and its vassals, no matter how malevolent they have been, if they adopt less destructive policies. Unfortunately, recent events suggest that the United States has no intention of doing so. After one hundred years of almost uninterrupted western hostility, no one should be under any illusions.

    *  *  *

    So then, the question is «Why do they hate us so?»

    Because President Putin wants to build a strong, prosperous, independent Russian state in a multi-polar world.

     

    Because the Russian people cannot be bullied and will defend their country tenaciously.

    «Go tell all in foreign lands that Russia lives!» Prince Aleksandr Nevskii declared in the 13th century: «Those who come to us in peace will be welcome as a guest. But those who come to us sword in hand will die by the sword! On that Russia stands and forever will we stand!»

  • More Leaks: "Hillary Should Stop Saying Things That Are Untrue, Which She Often Does"

    This morning saw Wikileaks dump another 2,086 John Podesta emails as the world nurses its post-debate hangover.

    We suspect the following ‘hacked and therefore entirely inadmissible and probably completely made up by devil-worshipping Russia-lovers’ will make a bad day for Hillary a little worse

    In an email from March 2016, Brent J. Budowsky – a liberal / progressive American political opinion writer and blogger for publications including The Hill, the LA Progressive, and The Huffington Post – explains to John Podesta his biggest fears about Hillary Clinton’s liabilities…

    From:brentbbi@webtv.net

    To: john.podesta@gmail.com, roy.spence@gsdm.com

    Date: 2016-03-13 09:43

    Subject: Bernie, Elizabeth and de Blasio

     

    Sometime soon I am going to suggest that Bernie, Elizabeth Warren and Bill de Blasio create the equivalent of a People’s PAC to raise huge amounts of money from small donors—after the convention—to support electing liberals at all levels….including but far beyond Hillary assuming she is nominated…..

     

    Beyond this Hillary should stop attacking Bernie, especially when she says things that are untrue, which candidly she often does. I am one of the people with credibility to suggest Bernie people support her in November, and she and Benenson and others have no idea of the damage she does to herself with these attacks, which she does not gain by making. 

     

    Instead the smart move would be to look for issues where she can dovetail with Bernie. One I am definitely going to suggest would be to take his proposal for a free public college education paid for by a transaction tax on Wall Street speculation and add one new dimension….that to receive this benefit young people should devote one year to some form of community or public service…. There is no reason Hillary cannot not support this…. 

     

    Right now I am petrified that Hillary is almost totally dependent on Republicans nominating Trump….she has huge endemic political weaknesses that she would be wise to rectify…..even a clown like Ted Cruz would be an even money bet to beat and this scares the hell of out me…..

    Of course, one should not read the message since the messenger – the satanic hands of Putin-spawned hackers – invalidates any and every comment made in these emails, which are clearly manufactured to ‘rig’ the American elections… or perhaps, just perhaps, for the first time in history, Americans are being de-lobotomized and given the chance to decide what ‘news’ they pay attention to  – as opposed to being spoon-fed by establishment propagandists.

  • How The "Perverse Economic Effects Created By ETFs" Are Setting Up The Next Crash

    One of our favorite topics over the years has been observing the inversion of fundamental cause and effective, or rather, the reflexivity of synthetic, “passive” products such as ETFs and VIX, which in a normal world are driven by the value of their underlying securities, yet which in recent years have seen the direction of causality inverted, and where it is the value of the synthetic product that inluences the market price of its underlying constituents, or said simply, the “tail wags the dog.” We have observed this phenomenon in both ETFs and VIX, the result of which has been even more confusion about whether fundamental causal links are even applicable any more.

    This “inversion” is also one of the main points discussed by RBC’s head of US cross-asset strategy, Charlie McElligott, who points out a recent FT article, and makes two stark observations.

    To wit:

    FINANCIAL TIMES ON “…THE PERVERSE ECONOMIC EFFECTS CREATED BY ETF’s”:  Two points:

    1. In a world of manic factor crowding via the exponential growth of cheap passive index and smart beta products, get ready for the class-action lawsuits in a future-state. And:
    2. this is BEYOND GOLD as an example of “tail wagging dog” / “echo chamber” / “feedback loop amplification” from the market structure shift experienced within the industry over the past 10+ years:

    “Steve Bregman, president of Horizon Kinetics, the New York investment adviser, points out that ExxonMobil, the oil company, is included not only in S&P index products, but in ETFs for active beta, momentum, dividend growth, deep value, quality and total earnings.

     

    Between the second quarters of 2013 and 2016, Exxon had a revenue decline of 46 per cent, and earnings per share decline of 74 per cent and a debt increase of 129 per cent, which led to a share price increase of 4 per cent. Anything could happen to the energy industry or Exxon’s fortunes, but a liquid index component can only go up.”

     

    Seriously…standing ovation.  Citizen Kane style. 

    Fund Management: On the perverse economic effects created by ETFs (Financial Times)

    By John Dizard

    Oct. 10 (Financial Times) — We have a consensus now in America that everyone deserves above-average investment returns, low risk and high liquidity.

    These benefits, or rather, entitlements, should be delivered continuously at low cost, with no real or even apparent conflicts of interest on the part of portfolio managers.

    If these benefits are not delivered, then the responsible portfolio managers, and any other complicit Wall Streeters, should be punished civilly and criminally, not only as institutions but as individuals.

    If you think that is an exaggeration, wait until there is a severe or sudden decline in the value of equities, specifically exchange traded funds, and watch the consequent Congressional hearings. We still have some time before that happens, and before then every plausible form of indexed investing is going to take market share from active human managers.

    I am opposed to this trend, because algorithms do not read newspaper columns or the advertising displayed next to them. So you should probably discount some of the doubts I raise as nothing more than arguments for my profession’s interests.

    The most serious risks arising from ETFs are the macro consequences of too much capital committed in too few places at the same time. The vehicles for over-concentration change over time, but the outcome is the same. Investors’ cash goes to money heaven, and there is a pro-cyclical decline in productive investment.

    Risk concentration always seems rational at the beginning, and the initial successes of the trends it creates can be self-reinforcing. Since US growth stocks such as Avon, the cosmetics company, Polaroid, the photography group, and IBM, the computer company, outperformed the market, growth-orientated portfolio managers raised more money in the early 1970s, which then led to more cash going to buy the same stocks.

    There was some truth at the beginning of those story arcs, and so it is with indexed investing. Many “active” managers who are really formulaic hacks charge a lot of money to create the same herding risks, and provide little, if any, value added in the form of considered and effective capital allocation or liquidity provision.

    Since the August 2015 flash crash of some ETFs, the SEC, the US regulator, and Wall Street have paid a lot of attention to market-structure problems created or exacerbated by the funds.

    There has been less analysis, though, of some of the perverse economic effects created by ETFs or other forms of indexation. Index sponsors need stocks with a large float-adjusted market capitalisation, so index managers have a structural bias to a short list of large-cap S&P 500 stocks.

    Steve Bregman, president of Horizon Kinetics, the New York investment adviser, points out that ExxonMobil, the oil company, is included not only in S&P index products, but in ETFs for active beta, momentum, dividend growth, deep value, quality and total earnings.

    Between the second quarters of 2013 and 2016, Exxon had a revenue decline of 46 per cent, an earnings per share decline of 74 per cent and a debt increase of 129 per cent, which led to a share price increase of 4 per cent. Anything could happen to the energy industry or Exxon’s fortunes, but a liquid index component can only go up.

    Mr Bregman says: “The normal valuation for a lapsed growth company might be 12 to 15 times earnings. But all of the companies at the top of the S&P 500 have a valuation of 22 to 25 times earnings. If the indexation money comes out of them, they would be driven 25 to 50 per cent lower, relative to the market.”

    Such an unwind in the indexation/ETF regime will have political as well as financial consequences. Wall Street’s probable next regulators from the Senator Elizabeth Warren wing of the Democratic party will not take long to make an aggressive move on asset managers.

    As one Democratic activist reformer says: “This is why it is so critical to have the right person as chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Even though there are critical differences between the large asset managers and the banks, [companies] such as BlackRock do control and manage crucial parts of the financial infrastructure.”

    If, or when, indexed product sponsors have to face the consequences on the other side of monetary easing and a rising market, there are a lot of nominally active but low-performing managers who will also lose market share. Automated or semi-automated portfolio management offerings will be there to pick up that business.

    Reportedly, Interactive Brokers, the brokerage, via its Covestor subsidiary, will be offering a set of five strategies for automated portfolio management, rebalanced quarterly, for a fee of 8 basis points.

    So how much more value are human portfolio managers offering when they charge a premium to those machines?

  • "Can We Stop This Nonsense, Please?"

    Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

    market-corrections-worry

    Can we stop this nonsense? Please.

    One of the biggest reasons why investors consistently underperform over the long-term is primarily due to the extremely flawed advice promoted by Wall Street, because they have a product or service to sell you, and the media, because they don’t know better.

    The latest bit of advice that you should immediately hit the “delete” key on is from Simon Moore via Forbes. The article, while it certainly fits the “buy and hold” narrative, is rife with flawed assumptions and analysis. To wit:

    “You shouldn’t worry about market corrections. Not because they won’t come — they will. There is just no way of knowing when. Consider the data. It turns out that since corrections can’t be predicted, the best strategy is to remain invested for the long haul.

    Yes, as I will explain in just a moment, you should definitely worry about corrections as the destruction of capital is far more important than chasing returns.

    However, the point of saying “corrections can’t be predicted” is inherently flawed. Yes, you definitely can not pinpoint the exact date and time of corrections, but THEY CAN be avoided.

    There is a simple reason why every great investor has a simple rule that varies in form: “buy low, sell high.”  Purchasing an investment is only ONE-HALF of the investment process, without the “sell” no money is ever actually made. Furthermore, it is the “sell” process that ultimately minimizes the effect of the correction and, most importantly, if you don’t “sell high,” you can’t “buy low.”

    However, there are some basic premises around understanding the “when” corrections are most likely to present themselves. As shown in the chart below, a simple analysis of moving-average crossovers on a longer-term time frame can help investors avoid corrective processes in the market.

    sp500-movingaverage-xver-study-100916

    Did it work every time?

    Of course, not. No investment discipline works 100% of the time. But that is not the point of investing to begin with. Missing a majority of the corrective processes, over the long-term, significantly improves returns. The chart below is $1000 invested on a “buy and hold” basis as Simon suggests versus using the simple moving-average crossover analysis in the chart above.

    sp500-movingaverage-return-study-100916

    Not only did the risk managed portfolio achieve better long-term returns, it did so with significantly less volatility. That lower level of volatility allowed investors to remain adhered to their investment discipline versus eventually being flushed out at the bottom of major market corrections due to the inherent emotional biases we all possess. 

    Okay, let’s get on with the rest of the nonsense.

     

    The Fallacy Of Long-Term Returns

    Simon states:

    “One of the best datasets on long-term returns comes from Elroy Dimson and colleagues at London Business School. They look at 116 years of data and find that a dollar invested in 1900 becomes $300 in 2015.

     

    That’s a real return before any fees and commissions that equates to 5% per year.

     

    Furthermore, that time period includes 2 markets that experienced a total loss during the period – Russia and China when they moved to Communism. The period also includes 2 World Wars, the assassination of 2 sitting Presidents (McKinley and Kennedy), 23 US recessions, and at least one hundred revolutions or major insurrections in many countries around the world.”

    First, let me just say for the record everything in the statement above is absolutely correct.

    The problem is you DIED long before ever achieving that 5% annualized long-term return.

    Let’s look at this realistically.

    The average American faces a real dilemma heading into retirement. Unfortunately, individuals only have a finite investing time horizon until they retire.

    Therefore, as opposed to studies discussing “long term investing” without defining what the “long term” actually is – it is “TIME” that we should be focusing on.

    Think about it for a moment. Most investors don’t start seriously saving for retirement until they are in their mid-40’s. This is because by the time they graduate college, land a job, get married, have kids and send them off to college, a real push toward saving for retirement is tough to do as incomes, while growing, haven’t reached their peak. This leaves most individuals with just 20 to 25 productive work years before retirement age to achieve investment goals. 

    This is where the problem is. There are periods in history, where returns over a 20-year period have been close to zero or even negative.

    SP500-20-Year-Real-Returns-071116

    SP500-Real-RollingReturns-20-Years-051916

    This has everything to with valuations and whether multiples are expanding or contracting. As shown in the chart above, real rates of return rise when valuations are expanding from low levels to high levels. But, real rates of return fall sharply when valuations have historically been greater than 23x trailing earnings and have begun to fall.

    Long-term investment success depends more on the WHEN you start investing. This is clearly shown in the chart below of long-term secular full-market cycles.

    SP500-Historical-Bull-Bear-FullMarket-Cycles-082216

    Here is the critical point. The MAJORITY of the returns from investing came in just 4 of the 8 major market cycles since 1871. Every other period yielded a return that actually lost out to inflation during that time frame.

    So, yes, major events do matter.

    If you were unlucky enough to start investing in 1929, given life expectancies during that period, it is likely you died long before getting back to even.

    For those who were about to retire heading into the turn of the century, it is unlikely they are any closer to retiring today than they were 16-years ago. Maybe that is why the number of individuals over the age of 65 still in the labor force is at its highest level on record.

    employment-12mo-avg-65-over-092516

    The bottom line is that YOU don’t have 100+ years to invest in order to achieve those “average” long-term returns you have been repeatedly promised. Well, that is unless you have contracted “vampirism” during your recent visit to Transylvania.

    Second, your “long-term” investment horizon is simply the time you have between today and when you retire. And spending a bulk of that time horizon “getting back to even” is not an investment strategy that tends to work out well.

     

    No, Stocks Don’t Do Well During Negative Events

    “Also, consider that even in recent history bad events can be associated with positive returns. 2013 was a year that included a US government shutdown causing almost a million government workers to be furloughed, a $13 billion fine for a major bank (JP Morgan), major revelations on government data collection from Edward Snowden, and an attack at the Boston Marathon. Internationally, there was turmoil in Egypt and Syria, a major typhoon in the Philippines and a terrorist attack that killed 69 people in Kenya. The US economy grew at a relatively meager rate of 2.2% and unemployment held above 7% for most of the year.

     

    Yet in this rather bleak environment with many bad news stories the S&P 500 grew 32% for the year. It was the best return for the S&P 500 in 18 years.”

    Really! 

    Uhm…you kind of forgot that 2013 was likely an anomaly driven by $85 billion dollars of liquidity injected each month by the Federal Reserve to offset the potential ramifications of the “fiscal cliff.” 

    fed-balance-sheet-qeprograms-100916

    It would have likely been a far different outcome ex-QE.

    Historically speaking, stocks do NOT do well during negative events. Do events such at “Long-term Capital Management,” “Asian Contagion,” “Financial Crisis,” etc. ring any bells?

     

    2008 Was a 30-Year Event?

    “In fact, since 1928 there has been only one worse year for the S&P 500 than 2008. On average, a negative year for the S&P 500, which has occurred on average about every 3-4 years, means a decline of just under 14% on average.

     

    It’s important to remember that 2008 was extreme, and more than double the average decline we have seen in a bad year for the market. We should consider it the sort of event we’d experience once every 30 years if history is any guide, rather than a standard bad year for the markets.

    Well, there are just a lot of things wrong with that statement.

    First, as shown in the table below, average corrections, particularly when associated with recessions, tend to be far worse than 14% on average. Try closer to 30%.

    sp500-table-recessions-returns-100916

    Second, if 2008 was a “once-in-30-year event,” then what are we calling the near-32% decline during the “dot.com” crash just seven years prior?

     

    Yes, Please Worry About Corrections

    In all fairness, Simon is only reiterating the “buy and hold” nonsense that continues to flood the mainstream media. This is the problem that occurs when people who don’t actually manage money for a living, write commentary about how you should manage your money. 

    With retirement plans having a finite time span for both accumulation and distribution of assets, the time lost in“getting back to even” following a major market correction is the primary consideration.

    The chart below, which shows the difference between the inflation-adjusted returns on a $100,000 investment in the S&P 500  growing at 8% annually as opposed to the impact of gains and losses in market returns over time, illustrates the difference between expectations and reality. 

    The reason the chart begins in 1990 is, despite analysis showing 116-year investment returns, roughly 80% of all investors today began investing. Of that 80%, roughly 80% of those began after 1995. If you don’t believe me, go ask 10 random people when they started investing in the financial markets and you will likely be surprised by what you find.

    Investor-Psychology-100k-Returns-061316

    Unfortunately, most investors remain woefully behind their promised financial plans. Given current valuations, and the ongoing impact of “emotional decision making,” the outcome is not likely going to improve over the next decade or possibly two.

    For investors, understanding potential returns from any given valuation point is crucial when considering putting their“savings” at risk. Risk is an important concept as it is a function of “loss”. The more risk that is taken within a portfolio, the greater the destruction of capital will be when reversions occur.

    Many individuals have been led believe that investing in the financial markets is their only option for retiring. Unfortunately, they have fallen into the same trap as most pension funds which is believing market performance will make up for a “savings”shortfall.

    However, the real world damage that market declines inflict on investors, and pension funds, hoping to garner annualized 8% returns to make up for the lack of savings is all too real and virtually impossible to recover from. When investors lose money in the market it is possible to regain the lost principal given enough time, however, what can never be recovered is the lost “time” between today and retirement.  “Time” is extremely finite and the most precious commodity that investors have.

    In the end – yes, market corrections are indeed very bad for your portfolio in the long run. However, before sticking your head in the sand, and ignoring market risk based on an article touting “long-term investing always wins,” ask yourself who really benefits?

    This time is “not different.” The only difference will be what triggers the next valuation reversion when it occurs. If the last two bear markets haven’t taught you this by now, I am not sure what will. Maybe the third time will be the “charm.”

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Today’s News 10th October 2016

  • Here's Where The Next Bank Deposit "Bail-In" Will Strike…

    Submitted by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

    One shot from a pistol pierced the night right before Antonio Bedin collapsed, dead.

    Antonio, a 67 year-old retired Italian, had just committed suicide. He was plagued by health problems and by the loss of his savings.

    Last year, four small Italian banks became insolvent and immediately needed capital. They turned to a bail-in.

    Antonio was one of thousands of small savers who were wiped out. Antonio lost everything. Then he shot himself.

    He wasn’t alone.

    There was another pensioner who hung himself at his home near Rome after he lost more than $100,000.

    Their stories became national news sensations. It generated intense anger at the bail-ins.

    A bail-in is when a bank recapitalizes itself by tapping its creditors, including depositors.

    Most people think of the money they deposit into the bank as a personal asset they own.

    But that’s not true.

    Once a deposit is made at the bank, it’s no longer your property. It’s the bank’s. What you own is a promise from the bank to repay. It’s an unsecured liability. That’s a very different thing from owning physical cash stuffed under your mattress. Money deposited into the bank technically makes you a creditor of the bank. You’re liable to get burned from a bail-in should the bank get into trouble.

    People in Cyprus had to find this out the hard way in early 2013. People awoke on an otherwise normal Saturday morning to the shock that the money in their bank accounts had been taken by a bail-in to recapitalize the banks.

    Not surprisingly, many Italians aren’t just waiting around to get “Cyprused.”

    I recently spent weeks on the ground in Italy investigating the ongoing banking crisis. I spoke with a prominent lawyer who told me that most Italians are now distrustful of the banks. They’re keeping a substantial portion of their savings in cash under their mattresses. They’re also buying lots of gold.

    I’ve been to Italy numerous times over the years. But this time, I saw something new. There were signs everywhere advertising gold bullion, like the one below.

     

    I think it indicates a strong demand for gold and a strong distrust of the banks. It seems to me like a slow motion bank run is already happening. This is the last thing Italy’s banking system needs. It’s further bleeding the capital in the banking system.

    I only see the situation getting worse…

    Italians are rightly afraid of bail-ins. That fear is leading them to withdraw their savings as cash and also to buy gold. This further drains the banks’ capital, making it more likely they’ll need to do a bail-in to remain solvent, which fuels even more withdrawals. It’s like a self-fulfilling prophecy.

    This means that the chances are good that a large number of unsuspecting Italian savers are going to get wiped out.

    The thought of potentially many more old, struggling pensioners committing suicide because they got wiped out from bail-ins has enormous emotional power in Italy. It’s like political nitroglycerin.

    It would have a catalyzing political effect.

    Bottom line, if Italians get Cyprused before the referendum later this year it’s a virtual certainty it will fail.

    That’s the unenviable conundrum the current, pro-EU Italian government is facing. They can stall and save the banks through a bail-in, or they can let the whole house of cards come down. Either option is political suicide.

    It’s hard to imagine that the frustrated Italian populace won’t vote to give the establishment the finger in the referendum, and humiliate the pro-EU government.

    Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has promised to resign if that happens.

    If he does, the anti-euro, populist Five Star Movement will almost certainly come to power. They’ve promised to promptly hold another referendum. This one would be on whether Italy should leave the euro and go back to its old currency, the lira.

    If Italy—the third-largest member of the eurozone—leaves, it will have the psychological effect of someone yelling “Fire!” in a crowded theater. Other countries will quickly head for the exit, and return to their national currencies.

    Economic ties and integration are what hold the EU together. Think of the currency as the economic glue. Without the euro, economic ties will weaken, and the whole project could unravel.

    It would be a deathblow to the EU, the world’s largest economy… And it would explode into a global stock market crash like the world has never seen.

    The Financial Times recently put it this way:

    An Italian exit from the single currency would trigger the total collapse of the eurozone within a very short period. It would probably lead to the most violent economic shock in history, dwarfing the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008 and the 1929 Wall Street crash.

    That’s how important the upcoming referendum in Italy is. It would be the first domino to fall in the collapse of the EU.

    Not surprisingly, the unsavory George Soros is keenly aware of what’s going on. He recently said, in reference to the Brexit and events in Italy, “Now the catastrophic scenario that many feared has materialized, making the disintegration of the EU practically irreversible.”

    Soros Fund Management has been picking up gold assets and placing bets that stocks will crash.

    He’s positioning to make big profits from the coming crisis. And I think we should, too.

    That’s exactly why I recently spent weeks on the ground in Italy.

    There are potentially severe consequences in the currency and stock markets.

  • INSiDe THe MeN'S LoCKeRooM…

    INSIDE THE MEN'S LOCKER ROOM

  • Debate Post-Mortem: Trump Crushes Clinton – "You Should Be In Jail"

    From the no-handshake start, following the most awkward Bill-Melania pre-debate greeting, it was clear the gloves were off. While Trump started apologetically, once Clinton opened up ad hominem character attacks, The Donald turned it up to '11'. Lashing out at Bill's indiscretions "his actions are worse than words", Hillary's lying "you should be in jail… I will call for a special prosecutor", and the biases of the moderators"it's one of three here" even the crowd cheered.. before being quickly shushed. Online polls, unbiased commentators, and the Mexican Peso agreed Trump won.

     

    A picture paints a thousand words…

    *  *  *

    Melania meets Bill…

     

     

     

    No handshake at the start…

     

     

     

    Hillary appeared to attract a fly…

    "You should be in jail"

     

     

     

    "I will bring a special prosecutor"

     

     

    Brief Transcript:

    TRUMP: "Bernie Sanders and between super delegates and Debra Wassermann Schultz and I was surprised to see him sign on with the devil. The thing that you should be apologizing for are the 33,000 e-mails that you deleted and you acid washed and the two boxes of e-mails and other things last week that were taken from an office are are now missing. I didn't knowledge I would say this, but I'm going to and I hate to say it. If I win, I am going to instruct my attorney general to get a special prosecutor to look into your situation. There has never been so many lies, so much exception. There has never been anything like it. We will have a special prosecutor. I go out and speak and the people of this country are furious. The long time workers at the FBI are furious. There has never been anything like this with e-mails. You get a subpoena and after getting the subpoena you delete 33,000 e-mails and acid watch them or bleach them. An expensive process. We will get a special prosecutor and look into it. You know what, people have been — their lives have been destroyed for doing 1/5 of what you have done. You should be a shamed."

     

    COOPER: "Secretary Clinton, I will let you respond."

     

    CLINTON: "Everything he said is absolutely false. It would be impossible to be fact checking Donald all the time. I would never get to talk and make lives better for people. Once again, go to Hillary clinton.com. You can fact check trump in realtime. Last time at the first debate we had millions of people fact checking and we will have millions more fact checking. It's just awfully good that someone with the temperament of Donald Trump is not in charge of the law in our country."

     

    TRUMP: "Because you would be in jail."

     

    COOPER: "We want to remind the audience to please not talk out loud. Do not applaud. You are wasting time."

    And, AG Holder chimed in…

     

    "I was surprised to Bernie sign on with you the devil…"

     

     

     

    "It's just words, folks"

     

    "I don't know Putin"…

     

    Trump slams Clinton over "Deplorables" comment…

     

    They shook hands at the end…

     

    Clinton's campaign responded…

    *  * *

    The Interruption count remained high…..

     

    *  *  *

    Online polls show it as an overwhelming win for Trump… (DrudgeReport.com)

     

    CNBC…

     

    Ohio…

     

    Fox St.Louis…

     

    And then – 90 minutes after the debate ended – CNN finally releases their poll of 537 Voters!!!!!

    What a total embarrassment!

    *  *  *

    Finally, the most real-time indicator of performance…

    It's on like Donkey Kong.

  • Deutsche Bank Tells Investors Not To Worry About Its €46 Trillion In Derivatives

    Having first flagged Deutsche Bank enormous derivative book for the first time back in 2013, it wasn’t until last week that JPMorgan admitted just what the biggest risk facing Deutsche Bank was. In a note by JPMorgan’s Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the strategist warned that, “in our opinion it is not so much funding issues but rather derivatives exposures that more likely to trouble markets going forward if Deutsche Bank concerns continue. This is especially true if these concerns propagate into a confidence crisis inducing more rapid unwinding of derivative contracts.”

    For those new to the story, Deutsche has one of the world’s largest notional derivatives books — its portfolio of financial contracts based on the value of other assets. As we first noted in 2013, It peaked at over $75 trillion, about 20 times German GDP, but had shrunk to around $46 trillion by the end of last year. That’s around 12% of the total notional value of derivatives outstanding worldwide ($384 trillion), according to the Bank for International Settlements.  It was €46 trillion as of Q2 measured by notional outstanding.

    JPMorgan bank analysts confirmed the size of DB’s book, and note that BIS data provide an alternative but indirect way to gauge the size of derivatives exposures. According to BIS data the exposure of foreign banks to German counterparties via derivatives contracts stood at $312bn as of Q1 2016.


    Source: BIS

    While the topic of DB’s derivative book size emerges any time the bank’s stock slides, it tends to be swept under the rug whenever due to fake rumors or otherwise, the stock rebounds.

    And in light of yesterday’s latest news, in which Germany’s Bild reported that Deutsche bank CEO John Cryan “failed to reach an agreement with the US Justice Department“, it is possible that on Monday the stock will have an adverse reaction, which also means that attention will once again turn to what JPM believes is the biggest concern for investors for the world’s most systematically risky bank.

     

    So what is the embattled German lender, the same one which two weeks ago at the depth of its stock plunge blamed its woes on market “speculators“, to do?

    As the Chief Risk Officer Stuart Lewis told Welt am Sonntag in an interview published on Sunday, it was to take a preemptive stance on market concerns about Deutsche Bank’s staggering derivative position.

    Speaking to the German publication, Lewis said that Deutsche Bank continues to cut back the size of its derivatives book, “which is not as risky as investors may believe.” Well, not just investors: it also includes that “other” bank with some $53.3 trillion in derivatives, JPMorgan.

    “The risks in our derivatives book are massively overestimated,” Lewis told the paper cited by Reuters. He said 46 trillion euros in derivatives exposure at Deutsche appeared large but reflected only the notional value of the contracts, while the bank’s net exposure to derivatives was far lower, at around €41 billion.

    “The 46 trillion euros figure sounds gigantic, but it is completely misleading. The real risk is far lower,” Lewis said, adding that the level of risk on Deutsche Bank’s books was in line with that seen at other investment banking peers. While he is largely correct about gross notional netting down to a vastly smaller number in a functioning, stable derivatives market in which there is no contagion and all counterparties continue to function during a Deutsche Bank “stress event”, that assumption falls out of the window the moment a counterparty fails, and becomes even worse whould any of the underlying derivative collateral be found to have been rehypothecated more than once, something not just we, but the BIS itself warned about in 2013.

    But back to Deutsche Bank, whose Chief Risk Officer tried to further belay concerns of a derivative fiasco when he said that “we are trying to make our business less complex and are paring back our derivatives book. Parts of it were transferred into a non-core unit some years ago.” While that is true, most of its exposure remains in the core unit (where the deposits are to be found), and what’s worse, one wonders why DB hasn’t had more success with derisking its gross notional derivative holdings, which still remain a substantial outlier within the European banking system.

    More to the point, it is worth recalling that only two short months ago, on July 31, the same Stuart Lewis, when interviewed by Frankfurter Allgemeine said exactly the same thing, in an article titled “We are not dangerous“… 

    … and promising that concern for the bank in the aftermath of the IMF report labeling it the most systematically risky bank in the world, was unfounded.

    When asked if Deutsche Bank is indeed the most important net contributor to systemic risks,  he replied:

    “No, not at all. Only one IMF report has recently muddled up the situation: We are not dangerous. We are very relevant. Deutsche Bank is interwoven with the entire financial sector. We are one of the largest universal banks in the world. But to make it clear: Our house is stable. The balance sheet is healthy.”

    When further asked if he can make this claim in good conscience, he said:

    “Absolutely. Look at how we have capitalized the bank since the Financial Crisis. We have taken €115 billion in risks off the balance sheet and have €220 billion of liquidity. Concern for us is unfounded.”

    Two months later it turned out that concern for us was, in fact, “founded.”

    Amusingly, when Wolf Richter pointed out Lewis’ comments, he noted that “wisely, Deutsche Bank’s elephantine exposure to derivatives didn’t even come up. It’s better to silence the topic to death than to cause a panic with it.”

    Now, just over two months later, the topic has come up, and this time Stuart Lewis is scrambling to preempt concerns about the dozens of trillions in derivatives, using the same exact rhetoric: please ignore the elephant in the room; Deutsche Bank is fine.

    But the biggest irony from Lewis’ August appeal to investors was the following: “The good news is: the taxpayer does not have to step in; according to the new regulations for banks, bondholders will get hit first.” If anything, events over the past two weeks confirmed that this will not happen.

    * * *

    Still, perhaps an even more important story ahead of Monday’s open is not Deutsche Bank’s latest attempt to ease investor concerns about its balance sheet and trillions in derivatives, but Friday’s report that global banking regulators are sticking to their guns on capital standards in the face of intense European pressure to soften planned rule-changes.

    As Bloomberg reported on Friday, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision will wrap up work on the post-crisis capital framework, known as Basel III, on schedule by the end of the year, William Coen, the regulator’s secretary general, said on Friday. Key elements criticized by European Union policy makers will be retained, according to the text of Coen’s remarks in Washington.

    One flashpoint is a proposed new capital floor that caps the benefit banks can gain by measuring asset risk using their own models compared with a formula set by regulators. Coen said “discussions are still under way” on the floor, though Valdis Dombrovskis, the EU’s financial-services chief, called last month for it to be scrapped.

    What this means is that as it wraps up Basel III, the regulator is under instructions not to increase overall capital requirements significantly in the process. That promise, first made in January, left open the possibility that individual countries or banks could face a marked increase.

    “This is not an exercise in increasing regulatory capital requirements,” Coen said. “However, this does not mean that the minimum capital requirement for all banks will remain the same; variability in risk-weighted assets can only be reduced if there is some impact on the outlier banks. So some banks which are genuinely outliers may face a significant increase in requirements as a result.”

    Banks such as Deutsche Bank, which while not named can be inferred: among the most vocal opponents to a boost in overall capital levels is German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble who has insisted that the Basel Committee not only keep any overall increase in capital requirements to a minimum, but also ensure the rules have no “particularly negative consequences for specific regions,” such as Europe. Or rather, Germany.

    In the current round of talks, Europe and Japan are keen to retain risk-sensitivity in the capital rules, including the use of models where appropriate.  The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, doesn’t believe capital floors are an “essential part of the framework,” Dombrovskis said. Europe also opposes the Basel Committee’s proposal to bar some asset classes from modeling entirely, and objects to the calibration of risk-weights in the standardized approach to credit risk.

    Why is Europe, and its biggest bank, “keen” on retaining the existing model-based framework which would not require substantial capital increases for risky banks, of which Deutsche Bank is at the very top? Simple: the largest German lender is already notably undercapitalized, and any further capital needs would only lead to further pressure on its stock, forcing it to seel even more equity when the inevitable capital raising moment arrives; it also means that the models used by DB’s risk managers are likely to materially misrepresent the bank’s true value at risk, not only when it comes to its loan book, and especially Level II and III assets, but more importantly, its derivative book, where while we appreciate Mr. Lewis’ assertion that the bank’s €46 trillion in gross notional derivatives collapse to just €41 billion, we would be far more interested in seeing the math and assumptions behind this calculation.

  • Two Words Suddenly Strike Fear In Silicon Valley Hearts…"Price Reduced"

    Authored by Mark St.Cyr,

    Remember way back in the glory days when the combination of “everything social” and “IPO” meant near instant stardom and riches? For those who might be having a little trouble remembering; it was way back in days past just a little under 24 months ago. Yes, that’s months, not years.

    Yet, as far as the many still clinging to IPO cash-outs, or stock option redemption in lieu of salary? It’s bordering on an eternity. And, believe it or not, that waiting game may have just been extended. The reason?

    Look no further than the once hailed songbird of both “social,” and in a larger context, much of what being a tech firm in “Silicon Valley” encapsulated: Twitter™

    Twitter has truly morphed into the literal “canary in the coalmine” of what I believe portends in the not so distant future for much of “The Valley” and “social media” in general. i.e., Laying on their backs, in the bottom of their cages, with nothing more than rumors and innuendo of either an offer to buy, or worse, an offer to just look. The latter having the worst of consequences once the “Thanks, but no thanks!” formality becomes public.

    It would seem, in my opinion, Twitter™ received the equivalent of both in the very same week. Can anyone say (or should I say tweet?) Ouch!

    As I stated earlier: “way back” was just under 24 months ago. And what truly took place as to hinder, or tarnish the implied “genius” status of founders, or the brilliance of the “it’s different this time” defense as it pertained to actual fundamental business metrics was The Fed’s ending of QE (quantitative easing.)

    And with that has come the realization (albeit very slowly) that “unicorn and rainbow” thinking belongs where it should – in fairy-tales and folklore.

    Want proof? Just look back to the ancient texts circa 1990-2000 in the “dot-com mania and crash section” via your search engine of choice. And for those of you old enough to had been “invested” back then? Just remember to have a tissue at the ready is all I’ll say.

    For those not familiar, or those painfully trying to forget, the condensed version is this…

    First there were cracks in the meme (think “it’s different this time”) then, one by one, once heralded IPO high flyers (think Twitter, LinkedIn™, etc.) began losing value from their peaks. At first it was slowly, then suddenly, and all at once, where they never regained their former lofty valuations. Till finally, the revenue models (think “eyeballs for ads”) along with their assumptions (think “billions upon billions of potential customers!”) were completely destroyed, taking even the largest of players down only a few years later of what was seen at that time as “unimaginable” with the demise of the then king of “new media” AOL™, yesterday’s equivalent of Facebook™ today.

    But not too worry, after all, it’s different this time, yes?

    Although I’m not as old as Methuselah (if you don’t ask the kids) I penned an article way back when in Sept. of 2014 titled “The Shot Heard Round The Valley World.”  right before the official ending of QE. And in it I made the following argument. To wit:

    “But, one shouldn’t read into this as “confirmation” the risk appetite story is not only alive but growing. For that is all about to change.

     

    Once the Fed shuts down the section of QE that has been pumping Billions upon Billions of dollars every month – it’s over for a great many of today’s Wall Street darlings.

     

    Think of it this way: Who is going to fund your next round when they no longer have access to the Fed.’s piggy bank? Let alone pump more money into older start-ups that just haven’t produced any real money (as in net profit,) but have produced nothing more than great new employee digs or benefits?

     

    Tack along side this the culture shock in what will seem near instantaneous with the shunning that will take place of any business resembling the, 3 employee, menial customer base, Zero if not negative profit margin businesses formed with the implicit intent as to be bought up or “acquired” for Billion dollar pay days.

     

    These will be the first to go. That formulation is going way of the now infamous Pets dot-com sock puppet. This will be the first true shock to Silicon Valley culture that hasn’t been seen in many years. And it will be far from the only one.”

    Along with this assertion:

    “And that won’t be the only monumental shift coming. Maybe, one at an even faster pace: The meaning of IPO.

     

    IPO is not going to have the same term of endearment it now has. I believe it will turn into the last and most dreaded three-letter acronym no one ever imagined in Silicon Valley.

     

    The IPO screams of joy will turn into wails of terror when those VC “angels” meet at many “treps” desk and state – they’re IPO-ing.

     

    No, not getting one set up for the big pay-day. No IPO will mean: “I’m pulling out.” i.e., “Have a nice day. Where’s the rest of my money?”

     

    The once renowned purchases of “Billion dollar babies” will prove out not to be worth two cents in this environment.

     

    Valuations will get crushed and people will be shocked at just how fast a company touted across the financial channels and other media as “fantastic buys” are flogged and fleeced when Wall Street comes back for their “investment.”

     

    If the story or the numbers aren’t there – neither will these once darlings of Wall Street. Regardless of size or stature.”

    You saw the ensuing cracks begin during the initial months of 2015 as the IPO market began drying up faster than a puddle in the Sahara as once Wall Street IPO darling stock prices went from “high flyer” to “dropped like a lead balloon” status – and never, repeat, never ascended within earshot of those once “totally worth it!” valuations.

    Twitter is just the latest, LinkedIn showed just how much “hype” there was to all these valuation metrics. For without a Microsoft™ buy-out? It appeared when it came to getting more LinkedIn shares? There were more people looking to Link-out.

    But not too worry! 2016 was said to be “The year for a rebirth of the IPO market.” That was said during the closing months of 2015. It’s now mid October 2016. How’s that all working out? (insert crickets here)

    However, many will state this is all a bunch of “hyperbole” or “uninformed assertions” or better yet, as is portrayed among the main stream financial media crowd as “the doom and gloom-ers looking only to be proved wrong again, i.e., “For just look at these markets!” I leave you with 2 words that were near unconscionable over the last few years.

    Two very small words that have monumental implications and should bring panic to anyone in tech, “Silicon Valley,” or still holding dreams of cashing out large on the basis of an IPO built on the “Eyeballs for ads” model. And it’s right there in Palo Alto, California for all to see. That is – if one dares look.

    Those two words?

    Price Reduced!

    And no, that’s not in reference to a Silicon Valley darling such as a start-up. No, those two words belong to that other seemingly invincible meme which was seen as far more stable than the IPO’s that afforded them.

    Real estate.

  • Russian Options Against A US Attack On Syria

    Via The Saker,

    This article was written for the Unz Review: http://www.unz.com/tsaker/russian-options-against-a-us-attack-on-syria/

    The tensions between Russia and the USA have reached an unprecedented level. I fully agree with the participants of this CrossTalk show – the situation is even worse and more dangerous than during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Both sides are now going to the so-called “Plan B” which, simply put, stand for, at best, no negotiations and, at worst, a war between Russia and the USA.

    The key thing to understand in the Russian stance in this, an other, recent conflicts with the USA is that Russia is still much weaker than the USA and that she therefore does not want war. That does not, however, mean that she is not actively preparing for war. In fact, she very much and actively does. All this means is that should a conflict occur, Russia you try, as best can be, to keep it as limited as possible.

    In theory, these are, very roughly, the possible levels of confrontation:

    1. A military standoff à la Berlin in 1961. One could argue that this is what is already taking place right now, albeit in a more long-distance and less visible way.
    2. A single military incident, such as what happened recently when Turkey shot down a Russian SU-24 and Russia chose not to retaliate.
    3. A series of localized clashes similar to what is currently happening between India and Pakistan.
    4. A conflict limited to the Syrian theater of war (say like the war between the UK and Argentina over the Malvinas Islands).
    5. A regional or global military confrontation between the USA and Russia.
    6. A full scale thermonuclear war between the USA and Russia

    During my years as a student of military strategy I have participated in many exercises on escalation and de-escalation and I can attest that while it is very easy to come up with escalatory scenarios, I have yet to see a credible scenario for de-escalation. What is possible, however, is the so-called “horizontal escalation” or “asymmetrical escalation” in which one side choses not to up the ante or directly escalate, but instead choses a different target for retaliation, not necessarily a more valuable one, just a different one on the same level of conceptual importance (in the USA Joshua M. Epstein and Spencer D. Bakich did most of the groundbreaking work on this topic).

    The main reason why we can expect the Kremlin to try to find asymmetrical options to respond to a US attack is that in the Syrian context Russia is hopelessly outgunned by the US/NATO, at least in quantitative terms. The logical solutions for the Russians is to use their qualitative advantage or to seek “horizontal targets” as possible retaliatory options. This week, something very interesting and highly uncharacteristic happened: Major General Igor Konashenkov, the Chief of the Directorate of Media service and Information of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, openly mentioned one such option. Here is what he said:

    “As for Kirby’s threats about possible Russian aircraft losses and the sending of Russian servicemen back to Russia in body bags, I would say that we know exactly where and how many “unofficial specialists” operate in Syria and in the Aleppo province and we know that they are involved in the operational planning and that they supervise the operations of the militants. Of course, one can continue to insist that they are unsuccessfully involved in trying to separate the al-Nusra terrorists from the “opposition” forces. But if somebody tries to implement these threats, it is by no means certain that these militants will have to time to get the hell out of there.”

    Nice, no? Konashenkov appears to be threatening the “militants” but he is sure to mention that there are plenty of “unofficial specialists” amongst these militants and that Russia knows exactly where they are and how many of them there are. Of course, officially, Obama has declared that there are a few hundred such US special advisors in Syria. A well-informed Russian source suggests that there are up to 5’000 foreign ‘advisors’ to the Takfiris including about 4’000 Americans. I suppose that the truth is somewhere between these two figures.

    So the Russian threat is simple: you attack us and we will attack US forces in Syria. Of course, Russia will vehemently deny targeting US servicemen and insist that the strike was only against terrorists, but both sides understand what is happening here. Interestingly, just last week the Iranian Fars news agency reported that such a Russian attack had already happened:

    30 Israeli, Foreign Intelligence Officers Killed in Russia’s Caliber Missile Attack in Aleppo:

     

    The Russian warships fired three Caliber missiles at the foreign officers’ coordination operations room in Dar Ezza region in the Western part of Aleppo near Sam’an mountain, killing 30 Israeli and western officers,” the Arabic-language service of Russia’s Sputnik news agency quoted battlefield source in Aleppo as saying on Wednesday. The operations room was located in the Western part of Aleppo province in the middle of sky-high Sam’an mountain and old caves. The region is deep into a chain of mountains. Several US, Turkish, Saudi, Qatari and British officers were also killed along with the Israeli officers. The foreign officers who were killed in the Aleppo operations room were directing the terrorists’ attacks in Aleppo and Idlib.

    Whether this really happened or whether the Russians are leaking such stories to indicate that this could happen, the fact remains that US forces in Syria could become an obvious target for Russian retaliation, whether by cruise missile, gravity bombs or direct action operation by Russian special forces. The US also has several covert military installations in Syria, including at least one airfield with V-22 Osprey multi-mission tiltrotor aircraft.

    Another interesting recent development has been the Fox News report that Russians are deploying S-300V (aka “SA-23 Gladiator anti-missile and anti-aircraft system”) in Syria. Check out this excellent article for a detailed discussion of the capabilities of this missile system. I will summarize it by saying that the S-300V can engage ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, very low RCS (“stealth”) aircraft and AWACS aircraft. This is an Army/Army Corps -level air defense system, well capable of defending most of the Syrian airspace, but also reach well into Turkey, Cyprus, the eastern Mediterranean and Lebanon. The powerful radars of this system could not only detect and engage US aircraft (including “stealth”) at a long distance, but they could also provide a tremendous help for the few Russian air superiority fighters by giving them a clear pictures of the skies and enemy aircraft by using encrypted datalinks. Finally, US air doctrine is extremely dependent on the use of AWACS aircraft to guide and support US fighters. The S-300V will forces US/NATO AWACS to operate at a most uncomfortable distance. Between the longer-range radars of the Russian Sukhois, the radars on the Russian cruisers off the Syrian coast, and the S-300 and S-300V radars on the ground, the Russians will have a much better situational awareness than their US counterparts.

    It appears that the Russians are trying hard to compensate for their numerical inferiority by deploying high-end systems for which the US has no real equivalent or good counter-measures.

    There are basically two options of deterrence: denial, when you prevent your enemy from hitting his targets and retaliation, when you make the costs of an enemy attack unacceptably high for him. The Russians appear to be pursuing both tracks at the same time. We can thus summarize the Russian approach as such

    1. Delay a confrontation as much as possible (buy time).
    2. Try to keep any confrontation at the lowest possible escalatory level.
    3. If possible, reply with asymmetrical/horizontal escalations.
    4. Rather then “prevail” against the US/NATO – make the costs of attack too high.
    5. Try to put pressure on US “allies” in order to create tensions inside the Empire.
    6. Try to paralyze the USA on a political level by making the political costs of an attack too high-end.
    7. Try to gradually create the conditions on the ground (Aleppo) to make a US attack futile

    To those raised on Hollywood movies and who still watch TV, this kind of strategy will elicit only frustration and condemnation. There are millions of armchair strategists who are sure that they could do a much better job than Putin to counter the US Empire. These folks have now been telling us for *years* that Putin “sold out” the Syrians (and the Novorussians) and that the Russians ought to do X, Y and Z to defeat the AngloZionist Empire. The good news is that none of these armchair strategists sit in the Kremlin and that the Russians have stuck to their strategy over the past years, one day at a time, even when criticized by those who want quick and “easy” solutions. But the main good news is that the Russian strategy is working. Not only is the Nazi-occupied Ukraine quite literally falling apart, but the US has basically run out of options in Syria (see this excellent analysis by my friend Alexander Mercouris in the Duran).

    The only remaining logical steps left for the USA in Syria is to accept Russia’s terms or leave. The problem is that I am not at all convinced that the Neocons, who run the White House, Congress and the US corporate media, are “rational” at all. This is why the Russians employed so many delaying tactics and why they have acted with such utmost caution: they are dealing with professional incompetent ideologues who simply do not play by the unwritten but clear rules of civilized international relations. This is what makes the current crisis so much worse than even the Cuban Missile Crisis: one superpower has clearly gone insane.

    Are the Americans crazy enough to risk WWIII over Aleppo?

    Maybe, maybe not. But what if we rephrase that question and ask

    Are the Americans crazy enough to risk WWIII to maintain their status as the “world’s indispensable nation”, the “leader of the free world”, the “city on the hill” and all the rest of this imperialistic nonsense?

    Here I would submit that yes, they potentially are.

    After all, the Neocons are correct when they sense that if Russia gets away with openly defying and defeating the USA in Syria, nobody will take the AngloZionists very seriously any more.

    How do you think the Neocons think when they see the President of the Philippines publicly calling Obama a “son of a whore” and then tells the EU to go and “f*ck itself”?

    Of course, the Neocons can still find some solace in the abject subservience of the European political elites, but still – they know that he writing is on the wall and that their Empire is rapidly crumbling, not only in Syria, the Ukraine or Asia, but even inside the USA. The biggest danger here is that the Neocons might try to rally the nation around the flag, either by staging yet another false flag or by triggering a real international crisis.

    At this point in time all we can do is wait and hope that there is enough resistance inside the US government to prevent a US attack on Syria before the next Administration comes in. And while I am no supporter of Trump, I would agree that Hillary and her evil cabal of russophobic Neocons is so bad that Trump does give me some hope, at least in comparison to Hillary.

    So if Trump wins, then Russia’s strategy will be basically justified. Once Trump is on the White House, there is at least the possibility of a comprehensive redefinition of US-Russian relations which would, of course, begin with a de-escalation in Syria: while Obama/Hillary categorically refuse to get rid of Daesh (by that I mean al-Nusra, al-Qaeda, and all their various denominations), Trump appears to be determined to seriously fight them, even if that means that Assad stays in power. There is most definitely a basis for dialog here. If Hillary comes in, then the Russians will have to make an absolutely crucial call: how important is Syria in the context of their goal to re-sovereignize Russia and to bring down the AngloZionist Empire? Another way of formulating the same question is “would Russia prefer a confrontation with the Empire in Syria or in the Ukraine?”.

    One way to gauge the mood in Russia is to look at the language of a recent law proposed by President Putin and adopted by the Duma which dealt with the issue of the Russia-US Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement (PMDA) which, yet again, saw the US yet again fail to deliver on their obligations and which Russia has now suspended. What is interesting, is the language chosen by the Russians to list the conditions under which they would resume their participation in this agreement and, basically, agree to resume any kind of arms negotiations:

    1. A reduction of military infrastructure and the number of the US troops stationed on the territory of NATO member states that joined the alliance after September 1, 2000, to the levels at which they were when the original agreement first entered into force.
    2. The abandonment of the hostile policy of the US towards Russia, which should be carried out with the abolition of the Magnitsky Act of 2012 and the conditions of the Ukraine Freedom Support Act of 2014, which were directed against Russia.
    3. The abolition of all sanctions imposed by the US on certain subjects of the Russian Federation, Russian individuals and legal entities.
    4. The compensation for all the damages suffered by Russia as a result of the imposition of sanctions.
    5. The US is also required to submit a clear plan for irreversible plutonium disposition covered by the PMDA.

    Now the Russians are not delusional. They know full well that the USA will never accept such terms. So what is this really all about? It is a diplomatic but unambiguous way to tell the USA the exact same thing which Philippine President Duterte (and Victoria Nuland) told the EU.

    The Americans better start paying attention.

  • JPM Explains How HFTs Caused Friday's Sterling Flash Crash

    On Friday, in the aftermath of the historic pound sterling flash crash, we presented Citi’s forensic take of how in just 30 seconds, bid/ask spreads in cable exploded as wide 600 pips.

    Today, we provide another take, that of JPM’s Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, who looks at the “gapping market” that emerged on Friday morning Asia time, and shares some color on the role of high frequency traders behind the sudden, dramatic plung in sterling.

    Below is his full note:

    Friday’s flash crash in sterling reinvigorates the debate about market liquidity and the role of High Frequency Traders (HFTs) as providers of liquidity. Similar to previous flash crashes such as the August 24th 2015 flash crash in US equities or the October 15th 2014 flash crash in USTs, market gapping, a step change in prices from one level to another without much trading in-between, raises questions about market structure and liquidity in FX markets. This is also because FX markets are perceived to be a lot more liquid than equity or bond markets, so the conventional view is that FX markets are unlikely to experience flash crashes or market gapping in the absence of high impact news.

    The flash crash in a major currency like sterling questions the above perception and perhaps shows there are liquidity vulnerabilities in FX markets that are more similar to those seen in equity or bond markets. A step change following a significant event such the Brexit referendum or the SNB’s abandonment of its peg is not problematic as it represents a natural market resetting. But a step change triggered by an order flow is more problematic and in our opinion reflective of how vulnerable market liquidity is in FX markets also.

    Liquidity vulnerabilities in equity or fixed income markets as a result of changing market structures are well documented. In equity markets the shift away from principal trading towards agency trading, where markets makers simply match buyers with sellers without holding inventory beyond a short period of time, took place well before the Lehman crisis. But the Lehman crisis caused a similar shift within fixed income markets. Regulatory and other forces have made it a lot more costly for traditional dealers to act as principal traders in fixed income markets, inducing them to change towards a more order-driven trading model of matching buyers and sellers with minimal inventory risk, or to retrench and be replaced by agent traders.

    At the same time electronic trading and advances in technology has encouraged the emergence of HFTs as liquidity providers in the most liquid segments of equity, FX and to some extent income markets. These HFTs use sophisticated quantitative models coupled with speed and high trading frequency, to exploit small price moves. They do so by arbitraging price differences across venues or by detecting and taking advantage of order shifts or imbalances or by simply exploiting very short term momentum or mean reversion signals.

    However, different to traditional market makers, HFTs tend to operate with a much shorter inventory cycle, meaning that they conduct offsetting trades within seconds or even shorter, in order to neutralize  their original position. As a result they tend to quote for smaller sizes and for a very short period of time. This in turn reduces market depth, i.e. the ability to trade in size in markets, especially in those markets where HFTs are important liquidity providers like equity markets. So we note that while the emergence of HFTs has been beneficial for bid ask spreads and small investors, it has likely had a negative impact on the ability of big institutional investors to trade in size. This is one of the reasons big institutional investors have resorted to dark pools for implementing large equity trades.

    More importantly, because HFTs’ models are typically adapted to exploit small price moves, HFTs have a higher incentive to withdraw from their market making role in periods when volatility rises abruptly as  they are reluctant to subject themselves to the risk of large price moves. In addition, there is a similar incentive to withdraw from market making when they detect a big order imbalance, i.e. when they detect markets becoming one-sided, as they are reluctant to subject themselves to the risk of not being able to close their position in a very short period of time.

    In addition, given HFTs employ similar models, this creates the risk of a simultaneous withdrawal by HFTs in periods of high volatility or stress or in periods when market become more one-sided. A simultaneous withdrawal by HFTs not only amplifies the initial market move, but also creates step changes or gapping markets as liquidity provision gets impaired and quotes are withdrawn.

    How big is the role of HFT in FX markets relative to other markets? A previous report by the BIS “Highfrequency trading in the foreign exchange market”, September 2011 concluded that around a quarter to one third of spot FX trading volumes are due to HFTs. But given that this study was conducted five years ago, we suspect that this share has risen since then.

    Indeed, the latest 2016 Euromoney FX rankings survey is consistent with a rising share by HFTs as liquidity providers. The biggest change in this year’s rankings has been the advent of non-bank liquidity providers led by XTX Markets who was ranked third for electronic spot FX trading with a market share of more than 10% and third for FX trading platforms. In contrast, the combined market share of the top five global banks dropped to just 44.7% for overall FX trading in this year’s survey. This market share had peaked in 2009 at 61.5% and was above 60% as recently as 2014.

    Moreover, many of the banks ranked outside the top 10 for overall FX trading are understood to be sourcing liquidity from non-bank liquidity providers. According to Euromoney, these non-bank liquidity providers or HFTs are set to gain more market share in the future, helped by advances in technology, more defined business models and a lower-cost infrastructure base than traditional FX banks. HFTs are already very important in FX spot markets as mentioned above, but they look to build capability in forwards and other products in the near future.

    In all, the FX market appears to be going through structural changes similar to those experienced by equity markets in the past. The advent of non-bank liquidity providers such as HFTs has reduced bid ask spread and increased market efficiency in FX markets, but at the cost of lower market depth and withdrawal of liquidity provision in periods of stress.

     

  • Hillary, Trump Refuse To Shake Hands At Start Of Debate

    If the pre-debate intro was dramatic, the actual debate was right out of Rocky IV, when in an unprecedented moment, Hillary and Trump both refused to shake hands, leading to a social media frenzy as “no handshake” promptly became what may have been the most tweeted phrase on twitter. 

    This is what it looked like.

  • Trump vs Clinton Part 2 – The Gloves Come Off: Live Feed

    Update: As we noted previously, Willey, Broaddrick, Jones and Shelton will be in the debate audience…

    As we detailed earelier, tonight's town-hall style presidential debate from St.Louis promises to be an eyeball-scorcher. With the bout scheduled for 90 minutes with questions from the web, the crowd, and moderators, parents are strongly advised to lock up small chidren (and pets) as the chances of the words 'pussy', 'liar', 'monica', and 'rape' emerging during the battle are high. Luckily CNN's Anderson Cooper and ABC's Martha Raddatz are moderating so everything should be 'fair'.

    The War Of The Noses escalates…

    One thing to watch will be whether Clinton, an audience member or one of the moderators addresses the Trump tape first.

    Some of the questions "you" want answered, include:

    The body language between the two will also be scrutinized — some liberal voices on social media have suggested that Clinton should decline to shake hands with Trump.

    As we noted earlier, previewing a hard-line attack on Clintons' sexual past, Trump on Sunday morning tweeted an interview given by Juanita Broaddrick, who claimed Mr. Clinton sexually assaulted her in the late 1970s…. Ms. Broaddrick tearfully recounts the episode in the videotaped interview and said "I'm afraid of him."

    As the WSJ adds, "Trump, facing fierce blowback for his lewd comments about women, is signaling that he will target Mr. Clinton's behavior as he tries to stabilize a campaign coping with its biggest crisis to date."

    In weekend apologies for his remarks, the Republican nominee invoked Mr. Clinton repeatedly, saying he had "abused women" and talked about them in ways that were more offensive than his own in a 2005 video in which he boasted of sexual aggression.

     

    He also claimed Mrs. Clinton attacked the women who accused her husband of sexual misconduct.

     

    "I've said some foolish things, but there's a big difference between the words and actions of other people," Mr. Trump said in a Saturday morning video. "Bill Clinton has actually abused women and Hillary has bullied, attacked, shamed and intimidated his victims. We will discuss this more in the coming days."

     

    That line of attack threatens to yank Mr. Clinton directly into the campaign scrum, a space the former two-term president has largely avoided since his wife launched her campaign a year and half ago.

    The WSJ notes that according to strategists in both parties, a tactic where Trump goes for Clinton's past infidelities may backfire… but then again, what's his downside?

    *  *  *

    Live Feed:

    *  *  *

    Bring your popcorn…

    *  *  *

    Finally, the drinking game… (via DebateDrinking.com)

     

    And the scorecard…

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Today’s News 9th October 2016

  • Deutsche Bank CEO Returns Home Empty-Handed After Failing To Reach 'Deal' With DOJ: Bild

    Following the seemingly endless procession of short-squeeze-fueling trial balloons last week – from settlement rumors to German blue-chip bailouts to Qatari investorsGermany's Bild newspaper confirms the rumors that sparked weakness on Friday: Deutsche bank CEO John Cryan has failed to reach an agreement with the US Justice Department.

    Having soared over 25% off the briefly single-digit price levels thanks to well-chosen rumor headlines of an "imminent settlement", news and facts on Friday started to eat away at that confidence…

     

    And now, as Bloomberg reports, Deutsche Bank's Chief Executive Officer John Cryan failed to reach an agreement with the U.S. Justice Department to resolve a years-long investigation into its mortgage-bond dealings during a meeting in Washington Friday, Germany’s Bild newspaper reported.

    The meeting was meant to negotiate the multi-billion-dollar settlement the bank will have to pay to resolve alleged misconduct arising from its dealings in residential-mortgage backed securities that led to the 2008 financial crisis, according to a Bild am Sonntag report.

     

    The German lender is still considering seeking damages against Anshu Jain and Josef Ackermann, who are both former CEOs of the bank, the newspaper reported. Bild said the bank froze part of the millions in bonus payments to Jain and other former top managers.

     

    A Deutsche Bank spokeswoman declined to comment to Bild about the outcome of Cryan’s Friday discussion or about clawing back former executives’ compensation. Mark Abueg, a Justice Department spokesman, declined to comment.

    Cryan, a Briton who speaks fluent German, has sought for the last three weeks to reassure investors that Deutsche Bank can weather the formidable obstacles to its financial health. His arsenal of strawmen include: denials of bailouts, blaming speculators, rumors of informal capital raising talks with Wall Street firms, rumors of capital injections from Germany's blue-chip corporations, rumors (denied) of Qatari sovereign wealth fund investments, and the sale of key assets and elimination of thousands of jobs.

     

    So what happens next?

    Three things:

    1) The "settlement-imminent"-driven 25% short-squeeze in stocks – completely decoupled from credit market's less optimistic perspective – is going to end badly

     

    2) Deutsche Bank will need to raise more capital and that just became more problematic after the bank quietly raised $3bn in a senior unsecured bond issue on Friday at a very wide concession…

    Some have wondered why the need to sell new paper at such a wide concession: after all as we reported before, DB has no current liquidity constraints courtesy of substantial ECB generosity, which backstop DB's existing liquidity reserves of just over €200 billion.

     

     

     

    … while issuing debt does nothing for the bank's net leverage, and in fact could lead to an erosion of certain credit metrics.

     

    If anything, the push to obtain cash may be seen by some as an indication that management is taking advantage of the recent stock price rebound window to offload securities to investors, which alone could lead to more pressure on the bank.

     

    After all, the question immediately emerges: "does DB know something investors don't?."

    3) A "bail-in" is more likely than a 'bailout', and as we detailed earlier, and here's how it can be done… Jonathan Rochford, PM of Australian hedge fund Narrow Road Capital, explains that despite all the recent confidence-building rhetoric and posturing, Deutsche Bank will need a bail-in. In the following analysis he explains how it would (and should) be done.

    Following the confirmation that hedge funds have started to reduce their capital and trading with Deutsche Bank its position is now perilous. It is correct to say that Deutsche Bank doesn’t have a liquidity crisis and that even if it did the Bundesbank could provide it with unlimited liquidity. But liquidity alone doesn’t guarantee a bank can continue to operate in the long term, solvency and profitability are essential as well. Deutsche Bank is at best borderline for both solvency and profitability with little prospect of either improving materially in the medium term. Deutsche Bank needs to substantially restructure its business activities and balance sheet, both of those will take time and capital neither of which Deutsche Bank has.

     

    Insufficient Capital

     

    Unlike other global banks Deutsche Bank has failed to adequately lift its capital levels since the collapse of Lehman Brothers eight years ago. It has been allowed to remain undercapitalised due to weak European regulators, which are fighting against global efforts to have all banks increase capital levels. Whilst German and Italian regulators are fighting for lower capital levels and avoiding dealing with their problem banks Switzerland and the US are implementing much higher capital levels, particularly for the largest banks.

     

    On Deutsche Bank’s preferred measure, risk weighted assets, it sits behind most of its peers. That’s after it has gone through a capital optimisation exercise which reduced risk weighted assets without reducing their balance sheet by the same proportion. On the more rigorous leverage ratio shown below, Deutsche Bank is dead last at less than half of its peer group average. When Europe’s most systemically important bank is the most poorly capitalised of its peer group that is a major problem that needs to be corrected as soon as possible.

    Source: FDIC

     

    Deutsche Bank’s current equity at book value is €61.9 billion but its market capitalisation is only €15.8 billion. Its total assets are 114.3 times its market capitalisation and its price to book ratio is 25.5%. The only peers with ratios this bad are Italian banks who have dubious solvency and very high levels of non-performing loans. To get from the 2.68% tier one capital ratio shown above to the 5% leverage ratio many consider the minimum acceptable level requires €40.1 billion of new equity.

     

    Not Profitable

     

    There are three primary ways for a bank to increase its capital. Firstly, profits can be retained rather than paid out as dividends. Deutsche Bank hasn’t been meaningfully profitable since 2011. The table below shows the net income after taxes for Deutsche Bank since 2009. The combined total of the last seven and half years is €7.8 billion, an average of €1.04 billion per year. That equates to a return on equity of 1.68% since 2009. Over the last four and a half years the cumulative loss is €3.8 billion with the average return on equity -1.38%.

    The CEO has stated that 2016 will be a peak year for restructuring, meaning investors should expect a loss for 2016. The fine being negotiated with the US Department of Justice will have a significant impact this year. Further fines for new scandals, the difficulties of operating in a negative interest rate environment and the potential for another European or global downturn mean there is a material risk of losses continuing in future years. Given sufficient time and capital Deutsche Bank would restructure substantially, ridding itself of unprofitable and low return activities. Unfortunately, it has squandered the opportunities it had over the last eight years and now doesn’t have either the time or capital needed to facilitate the necessary cuts.

     

    Assets Sales Not Sufficient

     

    The second way to raise capital is to sell assets and Deutsche Bank is making a great deal of noise about its asset sale plans. The sales of the UK and Chinese insurance businesses will together raise approximately €4.5 billion. A sale of the asset management business might raise €10 billion. Altogether that’s €14.5 billion which is helpful but not nearly enough. The flipside of asset sales is that future profits are reduced, exacerbating the profitability issues already outlined.

     

    Sufficiently Large Capital Raising Near Impossible

     

    The third way a bank can strengthen its balance sheet is by conducting a capital raising. The problem for Deutsche Bank is that the amount needed is simply too high based on the current metrics. Any investment banker will tell you raising 254% of market capitalisation is extremely optimistic. To achieve that for a business with a history of being marginally profitable is near on impossible.

     

    A Bailout or Bail-in is Needed

     

    Taking into account the lack of capital and the very unlikely prospects for an equity raising or asset sales to be sufficient, Deutsche Bank needs either a bailout or a bail-in. A bailout by the German government is legally possible given the gaps in the regulation that can be exploited. The key question is whether the German government would be willing to do so. In recent years Angela Merkel and her key ministers have consistently denounced the possibility of the Italian government providing a bailout to Italian banks. In recent months they have been adamant they won’t bailout Deutsche Bank.

    I’m cynical enough to know that politicians can change their minds extremely quickly when the pressure is on. I acknowledge there is a decent chance that the German government will do that soon. What the rest of this article aims to show is that there is a way to recapitalise Deutsche Bank without taxpayer funds. If there’s a decent solution that doesn’t involve taxpayer funds I think that solution can win out.

     

    Bail-in Mechanics

     

    The recently introduced European regulations lay out a framework for how a bail-in would work. Equity, additional tier 1 securities (Coco’s or hybrids) and subordinated debt can be written off completely if the bank is declared non-viable. Senior debt, particularly that provided by large institutions can also be converted to equity in order to lift reserves. By undertaking a combination of those two processes Deutsche Bank’s undercapitalisation could be quickly rectified.

     

    The table below lays out the liabilities and equity on Deutsche Bank’s balance sheet. Equity, additional tier 1 and subordinated debt securities are broken out. Senior debt has been broken into two categories, the portion which could be expected to be bailed-in and that where it is uncertain. For the purpose of this exercise a conservative approach has been taken, the amount that could be bailed-in is likely much larger.

    How Much More Capital is Needed?

    In determining how much additional capital is needed a target capital level must be chosen. If a bail-in is executed it needs to be a one-time exercise that removes all concerns about Deutsche Bank’s solvency. Lifting the core equity tier 1 ratio just to the average level of its peers is not enough, it must go much further.

     

    A core equity tier one leverage ratio of 9% would lift Deutsche Bank to the top of the list amongst its global peers. This would provide strong reassurance that another bail-in won’t be needed. It would also provide breathing room to undertake the overdue restructuring of unprofitable and marginal businesses. At a 9% level, another €111.5 billion of tangible equity is required. This would come from the write-off of additional tier 1, subordinated debt and €98.5 billion of senior debt being converted to equity. This implies that 63.1% of the senior debt able to be bailed-in needs to be converted to equity.

    For every €100 they are currently owed bailed-in senior debt holders would receive €36.90 in new senior debt as well as material value in new equity. To assist the transition, the regulators and Deutsche Bank should work together to see that those who receive new equity can be offered a transparent and orderly means to sell down those shares. Whilst Deutsche Bank could theoretically just restart trading after the new shares were issued, relisting without an opportunity for new shareholders to sell down to more natural equity owners could be substantially disorderly and may result in much greater losses in value and confidence in banks than would otherwise be the case.

     

    Potential Capital Sell-Down Process

     

    There’s two types of approach that could help facilitate the sale of shares by those who are seeking to exit; a rights issue model and an IPO model. The table below summarises some of the different features of each that could apply in the case of a Deutsche Bank bail-in.

     

    The rights issue model is the most efficient, but it doesn’t allow for Deutsche Bank management to prepare a solid pitch to potential new investors. Management would have only a few days to develop their strategy for making the bank profitable again and limited time to explain that to the many large global investors that may want to buy shares. The IPO model takes longer, but would allow management to put forward a clear plan on what businesses it will exit, what that will cost and the additional profitability that could be generated over time. The downside of the additional time is that it increases the potential for contagion to other banks as investors remain unsure of what recovery they will receive on their new shares for a longer period. Allowing over the counter trading to continue on senior debt would allay some of these concerns.

     

    As a guide to the possible recovery for bailed-in senior debt, other European banks were generally trading at 0.5 to 1.0 times book value in early September. This implies the new equity is worth €89.2 – €178.4 billion. When combined with the new senior debt of €57.5 billion this a total recovery of 94.0% – 151.1% on the old senior debt. If an IPO process was used this would open up the opportunity for the old subordinated debt, additional tier 1 and equity owners to receive some value. If a bookbuild ended up realising more than a 100% recovery for senior debt holders, which is reached if the price to book is 0.55 or above, the additional value could be allocated to the subordinated capital owners via the natural order of priority. This process would largely eliminate arguments that value wasn’t maximised, neutering the possibility of ongoing litigation as has been the case with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

    Conclusion

    Deutsche Bank’s position is currently marginal as it is woefully undercapitalised and has no clear prospect of becoming meaningfully profitable. As the world’s largest derivative trader and Europe’s most systemically important bank this is untenable. Deutsche Bank is three times larger than Lehman Brothers, making the possibility of an unexpected and uncoordinated failure completely unacceptable. Deutsche Bank needs substantial time and capital to execute a turnaround, neither of which it now has. It does not have the profitability to grow its capital base quickly or to support a capital raising of the size it needs. Deutsche Bank needs either a bail-in or a bailout.

    An orderly bail-in process would deliver Deutsche Bank the additional time and capital it needs. In the first instance, the bank should be declared non-viable with all equity, additional tier 1 and subordinated debt written off. By converting 63.1% of long term senior debt to new equity the leverage ratio would increase to an unquestionably strong 9%. Based on recent peer comparisons, bailed-in senior debt holders would receive a recovery of at least 94% of their current position. Using an IPO model, where management develops and presents a new strategy to potential investors over a 2-3 month period, would allow the recipients of newly issued equity an orderly process to sell-down their equity. It also creates the possibility of a substantial recovery for subordinated debt, additional tier 1 and equity investors.

    *  *  *

    If the Lehman playbook continues to play out as it has done – denials of any problems… blame speculators… unleash short-squeeze on heels of rumors of foreign sovereign wealth fund investments… and finally acceptance – this will not end well…

     

    Perhaps it's time once again to listen to DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach, whose advice was simple: don't touch it. "I would just stay away. It's un-analyzable," Gundlach said about Deutsche Bank shares and debt. "It's too binary."

  • Ray Dalio Warns A 1% Rise In Yields Would Lead To Trillions In Losses

    Last week, we shared with readers a fascinating presentation that Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio made to NY Fed staffers at the 40th Annual Central Banking Seminar held on Wednesday, October 5, 2016. In it, Dalio pointed out that thoughts which dared to question the economic orthodoxy, and which were once relegated to the fringe blogs, have become the norm, pointing out that it is no longer controversial to say that:

    • …this isn’t a normal business cycle and we are likely in an environment of abnormally slow growth
    • …the current tools of monetary policy will be a lot less effective going forward
    • …the risks are asymmetric to the downside
    • …investment returns will be very low going forward, and
    • …the impatience with economic stagnation, especially among middle and lower income earners, is leading to dangerous populism and nationalism.

    He further notes that the debt bubble which was not eliminated during the financial crisis of 2008, has since grown to staggering proportions, and notes that “the biggest issue is that there is only so much one can squeeze out of a debt cycle and most countries are approaching those limits.”

    Alas, while the underlying symptoms are clear, that does not make the solution of the problem any easier. Quite the contrary. As Dalio further adds, “when we do our projections we see an intensifying financing squeeze emerging from a combination of slow income growth, low investment returns and an acceleration in liabilities coming due both because of the relatively high levels of debt and because of large pension and health care liabilities. The pension and health care liabilities that are coming due are much larger than the debt liabilities in most countries because of demographics – i.e., due to the baby-boom generation moving from working and paying taxes to getting their retirement and health care benefits.”

    Here the Bridgewater head provides a simple explanation for why the system is unsustainable: debt is fundamentally a liability even though it is treated as an asset by those who “own” it. As a result, “holders of debt believe that they are holding an asset that they can sell for money to use to buy things, so they believe that they will have that spending power without having to work. Similarly, retirees expect that they will get the retirement and health care benefits that they were promised without working. So, all of these people expect to get a huge amount of spending power without producing anything. At the same time, workers expect to get spending power that is equal in value to what they are giving. They all can’t be satisfied.”

    How does the Fed react to this inconsistency?  By a familiar tool: financial repression.

    As a result of this confluence of conditions, we are now seeing most central bankers pushing interest rates down to make them extremely unattractive for savers and we are seeing them monetizing debt and buying riskier assets to make debt and other liabilities less burdensome and to stimulate their economies. Rarely do we investors get a market that we know is over-valued and that approaches such clearly defined limits as the bond market now. That is because there is a limit as to how negative bond yields can go. Their expected returns relative to their risks are especially bad.

    What does that mean in practical terms? Well, in short: lots of pain for holders of duration: “If interest rates rise just a little bit more than is discounted in the curve it will have a big negative effect on bonds and all asset prices, as they are all very sensitive to the discoun  rate used to calculate the present value of their future cash flows. That is because with interest rates having declined, the effective durations of all assets have lengthened, so they are more price-sensitive.”

    And the punchline”

    … it would only take a 100 basis point rise in Treasury bond yields to trigger the worst price decline in bonds since the 1981 bond market crash. And since those interest rates are embedded in the pricing of all investment assets, that would send them all much lower.

    Consider that Ray Dalio’s most stark crash warning to date.

    Of course, it is not new to regular readers becuase this is precisely what we warned about back in June, when we showed the massive duration exposure on the market, and explaining Why The Fed Is Trapped: A 1% Increase In Rates Would Result In Up To $2.4 Trillion Of Losses

    As we showed using Goldman calculations, in 1994, the average yield on the bond index was 5.6%, vs. 2.2% currently. Lower bond coupons means that proportionately more of the bond cashflows now comes from principal, which tends to be distributed towards the end of the bond lifetime.

    Here is the math of how much in just bond losses a 1% increase in rates would lead to:

    The total face value of all US bonds, including Treasuries, Federal agency debt, mortgages, corporates, municipals and ABS, is $40 trillion (Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association). The Barclays US aggregate is a smaller number, $17 trillion, as the index excludes some categories of debt, such as money markets, with low duration. Using either measure, total debt outstanding has grown by over 60% in real Dollars since 2000.

    For conservative purposes, we use the lower debt estimate, and get that when combining a duration estimate of 5.6 years with a total notional exposure of $17trn, and current Dollar price of bonds of $105.6, indicates that, to first order, a 100bp shock to interest rates – the same one that Dalio envisions – would translate into a $1trn market value loss. That is using the more conservative estimate of the bond market. Using the broader, and more accurate, bond market sizing of $40trn, the market value loss estimate would be $2.4 trillionWhile the largest number would be stunning, even the smaller $1 trillion loss estimate is massive:

    it would amount to over 50% larger than the market value lost in the 1994 bond market selloff in inflation-adjusted terms, and larger than the cumulative credit losses experienced to date in the non-agency residential mortgage backed securities market. 

    This is what Goldman concludes in early June when delivering its own stark forecast of massive losses should rates spike:

    “even if there is not a large net social loss from a rise in rates, the $1 trillion gross loss estimate suggests that some investor entities would likely experience significant distress. In the 1994 bond market decline, for example, losses on a mortgage derivative portfolio were a major factor contributing to the Orange County, California bankruptcy event. All in, the increase in total gross debt exposure, combined with lengthening bond durations and an arguably expensive bond market, suggest that rising yields should be on the short list of scenarios to be monitored by risk managers.”

    Now we know that it certainly is on the very short list of scenarios monitored by the world’s biggest hedge fund.

    So what, if any, recommendations does Dalio have now that virtually all the “smartest men in the room” admit the Fed is not only trapped, but that a spike in yields would lead to the worst crash in 35 years:

    Right now, a number of the riskier assets look attractive in relationship to bonds and cash, but not cheap in relationship to their risks. If this continues, holding non-financial storeholds of wealth like gold could become more attractive than holding long duration fiat currency flows with negative yields (which is what bonds are), especially if currency volatility picks up.

    Needless to say, we are eagerly waiting for precisely that inflection point.

  • Bernie Sanders Supporters Furious Over Hillary's Leaked Wall Street Speeches

    With the media exclusively attuned to every new, or 11-year-old as the case may be, twist in the Trump “sex tape” saga, it appeared that everyone forgot that a little over 24 hours ago, Wikileaks exposed the real reason why Hillary was keeping her Wall Street speech transcripts – which we now know had always been within easy reach for her campaign – secret. In her own words: “if everybody’s watching, you know, all of the back room discussions and the deals, you know, then people get a little nervous, to say the least. So, you need both a public and a private position.” In other words, you have to lie to the general public while promising those who just paid you $250,000 for an hour of your speaking time something entirely different, which is precisely what those accusing Hillary of hiding her WS transcripts had done; and as yesterday’s hacked documents revealed, they were right.

    The Clinton campaign refused to disavow the hacked excerpts, although it quickly tired to pin the blame again on Russia: “We are not going to confirm the authenticity of stolen documents released by Julian Assange, who has made no secret of his desire to damage Hillary Clinton,” spokesman Glen Caplin said in a prepared statement. Previous releases have “Guccifer 2.0 has already proven the warnings of top national security officials that documents can be faked as part of a sophisticated Russian misinformation campaign.”

    Ironically, it was literally minutes before the Wikileaks release of the “Podesta Files” that the US formally accused Russia of waging a hacking cyber attack on the US political establishment, almost as if it knew Wikileaks was about to make the major disclosure, and sought to minimize its impact by scapegoating Vladimir Putin.

    And while the Trump campaign tried to slam the leak, with spokesman saying “now we finally get confirmation of Clinton’s catastrophic plans for completely open borders and diminishing America’s influence in the world. There is a reason Clinton gave these high-paid speeches in secret behind closed doors – her real intentions will destroy American sovereignty as we know it, further illustrating why Hillary Clinton is simply unfit to be president”, Trump’s campaign had its own raging inferno to deal with.

    So, courtesy of what Trump said about some woman 11 years ago, in all the din over the oddly coincident Trump Tape leak, most of the noise created by the Hillary speeches was lost.

    But not all.

    According to Reuters, supporters of former Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders on Saturday “seethed“, and “expressed anger and vindication over leaked comments made by Hillary Clinton to banks and big business that appeared to confirm their fears about her support for global trade and tendency to cozy up to Wall Street.

    Clinton, who last it emerged had slammed Bernie supporters as “basement dwellers” in a February fundraiser, with virtually no media coverage, needs Sanders’ coalition of young and left-leaning voters to propel her to the presidency, pushes for open trade and open borders in one of the speeches, and takes a conciliatory approach to Wall Street, both positions she later backed away from in an effort to capture the popular appeal of Sanders’ attacks on trade deals and powerful banks.

    Needless to say, there was no actualy “backing away”, and instead Hillary did what he truly excels in better than most: she told the public what they wanted to hear, and will promptly reneg on once she becomes president.

    Only now, this is increasingly obvious to America’s jilted youth: “this is a very clear illustration of why there is a fundamental lack of trust from progressives for Hillary Clinton,” said Tobita Chow, chair of the People’s Lobby in Chicago, which endorsed Sanders in the primary election.

    The progressive movement needs to make a call to Secretary Clinton to clarify where she stands really on these issues and that’s got to involve very clear renunciations of the positions that are revealed in these transcripts,” Chow said.

    Good luck that, or even getting a response, even though Hillary was largely spared from providing one: as Reuters correctly observes, the revelations were immediately overshadowed by the release of an 11-year-old recording of Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, making lewd comments about women. In fact, the revelations were almost entirely ignored by the same prime time TV that has been glued to the Trump slow-motion trainwreck over the past 24 hours.

    Still, the hacked speeches could lead to further erosion in support from the so very critical to her successful candidacy, young American voter.

    Clinton has worked hard to build trust with so-called progressives, adopting several of Sanders’ positions after she bested him in the primary race. The U.S. senator from Vermont now supports his former rival in the Nov. 8 general election against Trump. Still, Clinton has struggled to win support from young “millennials” who were crucial to Sanders’ success, and some Democrats expressed concern that the leaks would discourage those supporters from showing up to vote.

    “That is a big concern and this certainly doesn’t help,” said Larry Cohen, chair of the board of Our Revolution, a progressive organization formed in the wake of Sanders’ bid for the presidency, which aims to keep pushing the former candidate’s ideas at a grassroots level. “It matters in terms of turnout, energy, volunteering, all those things.”

    Still, despite the Trump media onslaught, the message appeared to filter through to those who would be most impacted by Hillary selling out her voters if she were to win the presidency.

    “Bernie was right about Hillary,” wrote Facebook user Grace Tilly cited by Rueters, “she’s a tool for Wall Street.”

    “Clinton is the politicians’ politician – exactly the Wall Street insider Bernie described,” wrote Facebook user Brian Leach.

    Democratic strategist Steve Elmendorf said progressive voters would still choose the former first lady, even with misgivings. “I’d like to meet the Bernie Sanders supporter who is going to say, ‘Well I’m a little worried about her on international trade, so I’m going to vote for Donald Trump’,” he said.

    He just may meet a few, especially if Bernie’s supporters ask themselves why Bernie’s support for Hillary remained so unwavering despite a leak confirming that Hillary was indeed all he had previously railed against.

    In a statement earlier, Sanders responded to the leak by saying that despite Hillary’s paid speeches to Wall Street in which she expressed an agenda diametrically opposite to that espoused by the Vermont socialist, he reiterated his his support for the Democratic Party platform.

    “Whatever Secretary Clinton may or may not have said behind closed doors on Wall Street, I am determined to implement the agenda of the Democratic Party platform which was agreed upon by her campaign,” he said in a statement.

    “Among other things, that agenda calls for breaking up the largest financial institutions in this country, re-establishing Glass-Steagall and prosecuting those many Wall Street CEOs who engaged in illegal behavior.

    In retrospect we find it fascinating that in the aftermath of October’s two big surprises served up on Friday, Sanders actually believes any of that having read through Hillary’s Wall Street speeches, certainly far more fascinating than the staged disgust with Trump who, the media is suddenly stunned to find, was no more politically correct 11 year ago than he is today.

  • Hitler's New World Order alive in the markets – FX History Lesson 28

    As explained in our groundbreaking best-seller Splitting Pennies – the world isn’t as it seems; in fact, the world is a lot simpler and less complex than perceived.  We’re victim of “Perception Deception” – as explained eloquently in David Icke’s book.  If we can for a moment, de-politicize, de-emotionalize, and ‘de’ all the programming, advertising, and other ‘noise’ designed to distract us from reality; a different picture begins to emerge on the planet.  We’re talking about Forex, so let’s look at what happened this week in FX:

    During two chaotic minutes of Asian trading, the pound plunged the most since the Brexit referendum in June, with traders saying computer-initiated sell orders exacerbated the slump.

    The 6.1 percent drop drove sterling to a 31-year low of $1.1841, according to composite prices compiled by Bloomberg of contributions from dealers. Traders speculated the crash might have been sparked by human error, or a so-called “fat finger,” with algorithms adding to selling pressure at a time of day when liquidity is relatively low.

    While the currency snapped back in Asia, it resumed its freefall during European hours, as concern welled up that Britain is headed for a so-called hard Brexit that would restrict its access to the European Union’s single market in return for gaining control of immigration.

     

    So Bloomberg gets one of their London based FX customers on the line, Kit Jukes from SocGen, and asks him candidly about what happened.  He says that, Forex markets (and many other markets – too) are going to be volatile until a “New World Order” is implemented.  Or to quote him verbatim “Price discovery will be an issue as we move to a New World Order.”  The “NWO” he is referring to, is some sort of market panacea, where price discovery is so efficient, well – that’s not a market!  Let’s remember how all this Forex started, going back to a small hotel in New England, Bretton Woods:

    It was at this place where world leaders agreed to use the US Dollar as the world’s reserve currency, known as the “Bretton Woods” agreement, named after the ski resort where the meeting was held (probably, reminded them of Switzerland):

    Preparing to rebuild the international economic system while World War II was still raging, 730 delegates from all 44 Allied nations gathered at the Mount Washington Hotel in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, United States, for the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference, also known as the Bretton Woods Conference. The delegates deliberated during 1–22 July 1944, and signed the Bretton Woods agreement on its final day. Setting up a system of rules, institutions, and procedures to regulate the international monetary system, these accords established the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), which today is part of the World Bank Group. The United States, which controlled two thirds of the world’s gold, insisted that the Bretton Woods system rest on both gold and the US dollar. Soviet representatives attended the conference but later declined to ratify the final agreements, charging that the institutions they had created were “branches of Wall Street.”[1] These organizations became operational in 1945 after a sufficient number of countries had ratified the agreement.  On 15 August 1971, the United States unilaterally terminated convertibility of the US dollar to gold, effectively bringing the Bretton Woods system to an end and rendering the dollar a fiat currency.[2] This action, referred to as the Nixon shock, created the situation in which the US dollar became a reserve currency used by many states. At the same time, many fixed currencies (such as the pound sterling, for example) also became free-floating.

    Fast forward, it’s 10-8-2016, and leading FX strategists are telling us that markets are waiting for a “New World Order” – wasn’t that what was agreed at Bretton Woods?  Was Nixon in on this plot, was he tricked, was it a coincidence that Kissinger was with Nixon at Camp David (and who knows, who else) the weekend before they created their ‘plan’ to default on Bretton Woods?  No one knows, but we can certainly analyze current data.

    For a little perspective, we must understand the history of the world from an American perspective, after World War 2.  WW2 was the defining event that shaped the 20th and 21st century.  The best perspective for any American businessman, investor, or trader – is to READ THIS BOOK: IBM and the Holocaust.  This book is a MUST READ for any Forex trader, stock investor, or anyone who wants to understand how the world ‘really’ works: IBM and the Holocaust.

    This is New York Times Bestseller with well over 1 Million copies sold.  It’s a well documented, research gold mine.  After reading this book, you can say that you understand more about world politics than Political Science professors.  This is the reality of the way the world really works, which is NOT taught in school.  Through the book, you’ll see how the founder of IBM (Watson) not only enabled the Nazi regime to expand economically and manage the holocaust, he was Hitler’s personal friend (if you can say, Hitler had a friend), receiving the 2nd most prestigious medal of honor offered by the Nazi’s in that time.

    So what does this have to do with Forex?  Two things.  First, this laid the foundation for Bretton Woods and the Euro.  The Euro is practically a derivative of the US Dollar.  That’s why countries such as the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Norway, and others – stayed out of the Euro.  The Euro is the financial end result of the Marshall Plan which was designed to ensure the US Dollar was THE world reserve currency.  Second, by seizing Germany as a vassal state, the US-UK “Axis” cemented its control over Europe, the highest economic prize across the pond.  That’s because in Europe itself, Germany has always been the ‘strongest’ state, being the biggest producer and economic leader of Northern countries, whereas Southern Europe has been plagued by debt, complicated politics, and other issues (like African refugees floating to ‘the promised land’ or the Mafia hiding Nuclear waste in Italy & Ukraine, Terrorism (Real terrorism, not this ‘fabricated’ terrorism, etc.)

    To add to the spoils of war, Project Paperclip brought top Nazi scientists (most notably, Von Braun) without which NASA programs in the past 60 years would not have been possible.  Interestingly, this was also a period where the CIA was created, leading to the current global survelleince society we have today.  Planned and organized in London, executed and accounted for in New York & Washington, all for the benefit of various international multi-ethnic owners (some American, some Dutch, Swiss, French, Italian, German, Russian, British, Israeli, etc.)

    Fast forward to 2016 – during World War 2, IBM, the most sophistocated, largest, powerful computer company in the world was feeding the Nazi war machine.  What are computer companies (think Google, Facebook, Microsoft) doing today in Europe?  In London?  Google, Facebook, Microsoft, all have strong relationships with the DOD (Department of Defense).

    It was Hitler that first wrote famously the words “New World Order” – and now this same ‘goal’ is the solution to market microstructure illiquidity, volatility, wide spreads, and huge price swings?  It seems that over the past 100 years really, not much has really changed, it is the same group of banks pulling our nose (historically speaking), whether they’re funding Hitler or Clinton, whoever wins, nothing seems to change.  In war there are no winners, only victims.  There’s a popular banking advertisement ‘banks compete – you win’ – it should be ‘When countries compete, banks win’ – and this is most obvious in the Forex market, where such a move in the GBP/USD can be a quick 10 or 20 yard-bagger for a major bank who is on the front of the order.  And all this commotion- banking profits all the way to the New World Order!

    And – according to this book The Mind of Hitler – written by a Psychoanalyst, Hitler was not only supported and financed by the Rothschilds – he WAS a Rothschild!  They tried this NWO once before, maybe this is attempt 2, their ‘trump’ card.  Pun intended.

    To learn more about Forex history, and how it impacts us today, checkout Splitting Pennies – Understanding Forex – or checkout Fortress Capital Trading Academy, who offers a great Introductory course.  Forex = The reality of how the world works.

  • Republican National Committee Begins To Redirect Funds From Trump

    “Our party is in its deepest crisis since Watergate in 1974,”

          – Ron Nehring, former chairman of the California Republican Party

    In the aftermath of the “Trump Tape”, there has been a surge in GOP officials who have either rescinded their support for Trump or have openly called for him to step down. As the WSJ put it, “the speed and breadth of the abandonment of Mr. Trump’s candidacy shocked some long-time party members and exposed a shattered party without a clear path forward.”  The latest full list of republicans bailing on Trump is shown in the table below courtesy of Taniel, and can be tracked on The Hill’s website.

     

    Those declarations are mostly symbolic, with the RNC having little effective power to impact Trump’s process. As Ron Nehring notes, former chairman of the California Republican Party, “it doesn’t matter whether Donald Trump were to bow out. It’s too late to change the candidate on the ballot.”

    However, in a surprising move showing the dwindling support for Trump within the GOP, this evening the WSJ reported that the Republican National Committee (RNC) Chairman Reince Priebus on Saturday told party officials to redirect funds away from nominee Donald Trump to down-ballot candidates. In practical terms, the party will be working to mobilize voters who support GOP House and Senate candidates regardless of their position on the presidential race.

    As the WSJ explains, that means the RNC will push Floridians who support both Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican Sen. Marco Rubio to vote. Before today, the RNC wouldn’t have sought to turn out Clinton voters, leaving split-ticket voters for Senate campaigns to target.

    The GOP nominee has not made the large-scale ground-game investments that are typical of a major-party nominee. So the RNC has picked up the lion’s share of that slack. Before this move, the RNC’s field staff prioritized Trump, meaning that they would focus first on turning out voters for Trump, even if that meant those voters may not support GOP candidates down the ballot.

    Earlier on Saturday, Politico reported that the RNC directed a mailing vendor to hold off on all projects related to the RNC-Trump joint “Victory” fund.

    While the RNC did not immediately comment on the WSJ story, Sean Spicer, the RNC’s chief strategist, said on Twitter to briefly cast the story as “not true.”

    Which most likely means it is, and is just the latest indication of the chaos spreading through the RNC at this moment.

    Meanwhile, if the RNC is trying to send Trump a not so subtle message to get out of the race, so far it has failed: the real-estate mogul has emphatically declared he would not drop out in a message on Twitter on Saturday.

    As The Hill notes, legal experts are skeptical that the party could remove Trump without his consent. But if Trump were to step down, the RNC would vote on a new nominee after a meeting with its 168-member committee.

    The latest fallout may explain why the RNC chairman is no longer set to appear on tomorrow’s Face the Nation, with the slot going to Rudy Trump as the “campaign wanted a campaign person” according to Politico’s Jake Sherman.

  • US Soldiers Resist Obama's Support Of Al Qaeda

    Submitted by Eric Zuesse via Stratgic-Culture.org,

    As is by now well-known, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency’s previously classified 2012 report on the origin of the Islamic insurgency against Bashar al-Assad was released to the public on 18 May 2015, and it revealed the Obama Administration’s knowledge, at least since that time, that «the Salafist [Saudi-backed fundamentalist Sunni Islamic], the Muslim Brotherhood [Qatari-backed fundamentalist Sunni Islamic] and AQI [Al Qaeda in Iraq] are the major forces driving the insurgency in Syria», and acknowledgement that «the West, Gulf countries [Saudi Arabia and Qatar mainly], and Turkey support the opposition [to Bashar al-Assad], while Russia, China, and Iran support the regime», so that the U.S. Government is, in fact, allied with Al Qaeda there, to overthrow Assad.

    This pro-Al-Qaeda position was news, however, to America’s military personnel in that region.

    On 29 September 2016, the Russian news site rusvesna.su headlined «Scandal in the US Army: Obama, we will not fight for your fighters in Syria! – Soldiers protest (PHOTOS, VIDEO)», and they showed alleged U.S. military personnel holding up signs covering their faces, upon which signs were handwritten messages such as:

    «I joined the military to protect my family from terrorists»

     

    «Obama, I will not deploy to fight for your Al-Qaeda rebels in Syria. WAKE UP PEOPLE»

     

    «I DIDN’T JOIN THE NAVY TO FIGHT FOR AL QAEDA IN A SYRIAN CIVIL WAR!»

     

     

    «I will NOT fight for Al Qaeda in Syria»

    Whether these men (they all appear to be that) authentically are in-service U.S. military personnel cannot be established conclusively at this time, and no U.S. military would want to be publicly identified as opposing the U.S. government’s instructions, in any case. No active-duty U.S. personnel are likely to identify themselves publicly as refusing to participate in what their Commander-in-Chief is requiring of them.

    However, at the very top of the U.S. military command, in the Joint Chiefs of Staff, there have, in fact, been resignations and firings by President Barack Obama, in order to keep the Syrian war going in this way: as a joint U.S.-and-jihadist effort. Though the great investigative journalist Seymour Hersh could not obtain U.S. publication for his major reports about the Syrian war, the London Review of Books has been publishing these reports; and one of them, «Military to Military», on 7 January 2016, stated that:

    Barack Obama’s repeated insistence that Bashar al-Assad must leave office – and that there are ‘moderate’ rebel groups in Syria capable of defeating him – has in recent years provoked quiet dissent, and even overt opposition, among some of the most senior officers on the Pentagon’s Joint Staff. Their criticism has focused on what they see as the administration’s fixation on Assad’s primary ally, Vladimir Putin. In their view, Obama is captive to Cold War thinking about Russia and China, and hasn’t adjusted his stance on Syria to the fact both countries share Washington’s anxiety about the spread of terrorism in and beyond Syria; like Washington, they believe that Islamic State must be stopped… Lieutenant General Michael Flynn, director of the DIA between 2012 and 2014, confirmed that his agency had sent a constant stream of classified warnings to the civilian leadership about the dire consequences of toppling Assad. The jihadists, he said, were in control of the opposition.

     

    …By the late summer of 2013, the DIA’s assessment had been circulated widely, but although many in the American intelligence community were aware that the Syrian opposition was dominated by extremists the CIA-sponsored weapons kept coming… General Dempsey and his colleagues on the Joint Chiefs of Staff kept their dissent out of bureaucratic channels, and survived in office. General Michael Flynn did not. ‘Flynn incurred the wrath of the White House by insisting on telling the truth about Syria,’ said Patrick Lang, a retired army colonel who served for nearly a decade as the chief Middle East civilian intelligence officer for the DIA. ‘He thought truth was the best thing and they shoved him out. He wouldn’t shut up.’ Flynn told me his problems went beyond Syria. ‘I was shaking things up at the DIA – and not just moving deckchairs on the Titanic. It was radical reform. I felt that the civilian leadership did not want to hear the truth. I suffered for it, but I’m OK with that.’

    Dempsey resigned voluntarily: he took retirement, on 25 September 2015, when Obama replaced him with Joe Dunford, whose views at the time were unknown, except that a CFR neoconservative and champion of the «Maximalist» position of the U.S. in international relations, Stephen Sestanovich, praised the new head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff as «‘Fighting Joe’ Dunford»; and, to paraphrase a cliché: it takes a neoconservative to recognize a neoconservative. But neither Sestanovich nor Dunford would say anything about their views on Syria. 

    But then, during a press conference on 29 March 2016, Dunford said:

    The Russian military presents the greatest array of threats to U.S. interests… Our primary partners on the ground, the Syrian Democratic Forces, have been successful in recovering a large swath of ground in northeast Syria. And I’ll call them the SDF… The adversary knows exactly what the threshold is for us to take decisive military action. So they operate below that level. They continue to advance their interests and we lose competitive advantage. And, frankly, our interests are adversely affected.  And for me it’s actually one of the most significant challenges that we’re dealing with right now.

    This view of Russia as being America’s main enemy, is entirely consistent with Barack Obama’s «National Security Strategy 2015», which identified Russia as by far the world’s most «aggressive» nation. In other words: Russia is a continuation of the Soviet Union, in both Obama’s and Dunford’s view. The United States overthrew many heads-of-state who were friendly toward Russia — Saddam Hussein in 2003, Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, Viktor Yanukovych in 2014, and have been targeting Bashar al-Assad ever since at least 2011 — but calls Russia, by far, the world’s most aggressive nation.

    Martin Dempsey didn’t want to serve in such a military (i.e., in a military led by a President such as that), nor did Michael Flynn, but it’s what Barack Obama demands. (He demands the overthrow of Assad.) And, therefore, Dunford can talk now about having (via America’s allied «primary partners on the ground») «been successful in recovering a large swath of ground in northeast Syria», as if the U.S. (and its allies, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, and Kuwait, which pay those «primary forces on the ground» — and Turkey, which provides the jihadists passage into Syria) have any right to that land. Obama is out for conquest, not peace, but whether he will carry this all the way to World War III, isn’t yet known.

    Furthermore, as the independent journalist Rick Sterling at Consortium News put the matter, on September 23rd, some proponents of overthrowing Assad:

    actively call for U.S./NATO military intervention through a «No Fly Zone,» which would begin with attacks upon and destruction of government anti-aircraft positions and aircraft.

     

    Taking over the skies above another country is an act of war that would require a major U.S. military operation, according to senior American generals.

     

    The New York Times reported that in 2012 General Martin E. Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the White House that imposing a no-fly zone in Syria would require up to 70,000 American servicemen to destroy Syria’s antiaircraft system and then impose round-the-clock control over Syrian airspace.

     

    General Carter Ham, former commander of the U.S. Africa Command who oversaw the aerial attacks on Libya in 2011, said on CBS News that «I worry sometimes that, when people say ‘impose a no-fly zone,’ there is this almost antiseptic view that this is an easily accomplished military task. It’s extraordinarily difficult…

     

    «It first entails — we should make no bones about it. It first entails killing a lot of people and destroying the Syrian air defenses and those people who are manning those systems. And then it entails destroying the Syrian air force, preferably on the ground, in the air if necessary. This is a violent combat action that results in lots of casualties and increased risk to our own personnel».

     

    In other words, an appeal for a «no-fly zone» is not a call for a non-violent solution. It is seeking a bloody act of war by the United States against Syria, a nation that poses no threat to America.

    Obama’s intended successor, Hillary Clinton, champions the imposition of a «no-fly zone» to shoot down the planes of Russia and Syria, in Syria — to shoot down the planes that have been successfully killing the jihadists who have been trying to overthrow and replace Assad. The U.S. is with the jihadists, who have been imported into Syria by, and paid by, the royal families of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and UAE.

    Thus, for example, Hillary said, on 19 December 2015, «I am advocating the no-fly zone both because I think it would help us on the ground to protect Syrians; I'm also advocating it because I think it gives us some leverage in our conversations with Russia». She wants to order Russian planes out of Syria, and to order Syria’s only legitimate government to be replaced with an anti-Russian government. And she wants to do this not only «to protect Syrians» (who overwhelmingly blame the U.S. for the hell they’re now experiencing, the U.S.-Saudi proxy armies of imported jihadists) «because I think it gives us some leverage in our conversations with Russia».

    Although there might still be some resistance remaining at the top levels of the U.S. military against the restoration and heating-up of the formerly Cold War against the USSR (now against only Russia and any head-of-state who isn’t hostile toward it), Obama has probably by now eliminated almost all of those people at the top level; and so virtually the only U.S. military personnel who oppose the increasingly hot U.S. war against Russia could be the troops who would be ordered to do the killing and dying in that war. They would face a choice of either resigning and losing their means-of-livelihood and much else, or of fighting and maybe dying for a cause that they think to be evil (allied with Al Qaeda).

    There is no public sign yet of any such mutiny against the U.S. regime, either by its soldiers, or by its subjects.

    Two articles may be especially relevant to understanding why this would be the case. One is  «Russia Finds – Shaming The U.S. Government Into Action Can Work», from the brilliant blogger who goes by the name «Moon of Alabama». The other is, «How Bamboozled the American Public Are About Syria», from me. Whereas the former article focuses upon the U.S. government’s operation to fool the American people into believing that ‘their’ government cares about fighting Al Qaeda in countries where Al Qaeda is actually instead a crucial ally of the American government against Russia and allies of Russia, the latter article focuses upon the enormous success of that governmental lying-operation. 

    But the success of Obama’s lying-operation has been even more striking in regards to Ukraine, Crimea, and Donbass — a matter which the head of Stratfor called «the most blatant coup in history», but which the American people still believe to have been a ‘democratic revolution’ that overthrew a ‘dictator’. It was an extraordinarily bloody coup there. And, as a result of it, Crimeans were terrified and overwhelmingly sought, and then obtained, Russian protection, and citizenship; and Donbassers were terrified and broke away from the newly installed Ukrainian regime, and likewise sought Russian citizenship, but were turned down by Putin, who regrettably provided only military and humanitarian assistance against the constant bombing by the newly installed nazis in Ukraine.

    The economic sanctions against Russia that Obama had imposed by alleging that Putin ‘stole’ Crimea, caused Putin to say no to Obama’s millions of victims in Donbass. Russia accepted approximately a million refugees from Donbass, but Obama (via his paid nazi surrogates) basically destroyed Donbass (though not as much as he’s destroying Syria via his paid Al Qaeda etc. surrogates, a country that he wants even more to conquer, because the Saudi royal family demand it and are actually paying most of the bills for it). (Europe’s taxpayers are paying most of the bills for Obama’s conquest of Ukraine, and Europe also gets many of the refugees from there.) 

    Politically, what the American public see is that Republican politicians criticize Obama for fictitious reasons (such as that he ‘wasn’t born in the United States’), and Democratic politicians say that those fictitious reasons are the only reasons to criticize him. As a consequence, the American public have no idea about the reality of Obama, and of his policies.

    So: these are some of the reasons why there is no mutiny.

  • A Real Life "House of Cards" – The Most Striking WikiLeaks Revelations From The "Podesta Files"

    They say that “life imitates art”…or is it the other way around…the lines are getting so blurred.  In any event, we thought we would take this opportunity to highlight some of the most startling discoveries we found so far in Doug Stamper’s…sorry, John Podesta’s emails.  You have to admit there are some similarities there and they even have the same position…hopefully the Clinton Foundation is receiving royalties from HBO…

    Podesta

     

    Yesterday we pointed out the many amazing one-liners offered up by Hillary as she was out collecting millions of dollars for her “Wall Street speeches.”  Here is an expanded sample:

    Hillary Clinton: “I’m Kind Of Far Removed” From The Struggles Of The Middle Class “Because The Life I’ve Lived And The Economic, You Know, Fortunes That My Husband And I Now Enjoy.” “And I am not taking a position on any policy, but I do think there is a growing sense of anxiety and even anger in the country over the feeling that the game is rigged.  And I never had that feeling when I was growing up.  Never. I mean, were there really rich people, of course there were.  My father loved to complain about big business and big government, but we had a solid middle class upbringing.  We had good public schools.  We had accessible health care.  We had our little, you know, one-family house that, you know, he saved up his money, didn’t believe in mortgages.  So I lived that.  And now, obviously, I’m kind of far removed because the life I’ve lived and the economic, you know, fortunes that my husband and I now enjoy, but I haven’t forgotten it.”  [Hillary Clinton Remarks at Goldman-Black Rock, 2/4/14]

     

    Hillary Clinton Said There Was “A Bias Against People Who Have Led Successful And/Or Complicated Lives,” Citing The Need To Divese Of Assets, Positions, And Stocks.   “SECRETARY CLINTON:  Yeah.  Well, you know what Bob Rubin said about that.  He said, you know, when he came to Washington, he had a fortune.  And when he left Washington, he had a small —              MR. BLANKFEIN:  That’s how you have a small fortune, is you go to Washington. SECRETARY CLINTON:  You go to Washington.  Right.              But, you know, part of the problem with the political situation, too, is that there is such a bias against people who have led successful and/or complicated lives.  You know, the divestment of assets, the stripping of all kinds of positions, the sale of stocks.  It just becomes very onerous and unnecessary.” [Goldman Sachs Builders And Innovators Summit, 10/29/13]

     

    Hillary Clinton Noted President Clinton Had Spoken At The Same Goldman Summit Last Year, And Blankfein Joked “He Increased Our Budget.” “SECRETARY CLINTON:  Well, first, thanks for having me here and giving me a chance to know a little bit more about the builders and the innovators who you’ve gathered.  Some of you might have been here last year, and my husband was, I guess, in this very same position.  And he came back and was just thrilled by— MR. BLANKFEIN:  He increased our budget.              SECRETARY CLINTON:  Did he? MR. BLANKFEIN:  Yes.  That’s why we —              SECRETARY CLINTON:  Good.  I think he—I think he encouraged you to grow it a little, too.  But it really was a tremendous experience for him, so I’ve been looking forward to it and hope we have a chance to talk about a lot of things.” [Goldman Sachs Builders And Innovators Summit, 10/29/13]

     

    Clinton Said When She Got To State, Employees “Were Not Mostly Permitted To Have Handheld Devices.”  “You know, when Colin Powell showed up as Secretary of State in 2001, most State Department employees still didn’t even have computers on their desks. When I got there they were not mostly permitted to have handheld devices. I mean, so you’re thinking how do we operate in this new environment dominated by technology, globalizing forces? We have to change, and I can’t expect people to change if I don’t try to model it and lead it.”  [Clinton Speech For General Electric’s Global Leadership Meeting – Boca Raton, FL, 1/6/14]

     

    Clinton Joked It’s “Risky” For Her To Speak To A Group Committed To Futures Markets  Given Her Past Whitewater Scandal.  “Now, it’s always a little bit risky for me to come speak to a group that is committed to the futures markets because — there’s a few knowing laughs — many years ago, I actually traded in the futures markets. I mean, this was so long ago, it was before computers were invented, I think. And I worked with a group of like-minded friends and associates who traded in pork bellies and cotton and other such things, and I did pretty well. I invested about a thousand dollars and traded up to about a hundred thousand. And then my daughter was born, and I just didn’t think I had enough time or mental space to figure out anything having to do with trading other than trading time with my daughter for time with the rest of my life. So I got out, and I thought that would be the end of it.” [Remarks to CME Group, 11/18/13]

     

    Hillary Clinton Said Jordan Was Threatened Because “They Can’t Possibly Vet All Those Refugees So They Don’t Know If, You Know, Jihadists Are Coming In Along With Legitimate Refugees.”  “So I think you’re right to have gone to the places that you visited because there’s a discussion going on now across the region to try to see where there might be common ground to deal with the threat posed by extremism and particularly with Syria which has everyone quite worried, Jordan because it’s on their border and they have hundreds of thousands of refugees and they can’t possibly vet all those refugees so they don’t know if, you know, jihadists are coming in along with legitimate refugees. Turkey for the same reason.”  [Jewish United Fund Of Metropolitan Chicago Vanguard Luncheon, 10/28/13]

     

    Hillary Clinton Said The Saudis Opposed The Muslim Brotherhood, “Which Is Kind Of Ironic Since The Saudis Have Exported More Extreme Ideology Than Any Other Place On Earth Over The Course Of The Last 30 Years.” “And they are getting a lot of help from the Saudis to the Emiratis—to go back to our original discussion—because the Saudis and the Emiratis see the Muslim Brotherhood as threatening to them, which is kind of ironic since the Saudis have exported more extreme ideology than any other place on earth over the course of the last 30 years.” [2014 Jewish United Fund Advance & Major Gifts Dinner, 10/28/13]

     

    Hillary Clinton Said Her Dream Is A Hemispheric Common Market, With Open Trade And Open Markets.  “My dream is a hemispheric common market, with open trade and open borders, some time in the future with energy that is as green and sustainable as we can get it, powering growth and opportunity for every person in the hemisphere.” [05162013 Remarks to Banco Itau.doc, p. 28]

    Meanwhile, there are plenty of other great email exchanges as well.

    The following exchange comes from the President of the Soros-funded “Open Society Foundation (we previously wrote about the society’s plan to “Enlarge electorate by at least 10 million voters” here) who offers some advice on “police reform.”  The email points Podesta to an article previously written by the Open Society Foundation, ironically titled Get the Politics Out of Policing.”  Surprisingly, Stone points out that the problem isn’t a lack of independence by police but by politicians:

    The problem is not a lack of independence just from the police, but independence from city politics. Since 2007, Chicago has had an agency separate from the police to investigate officer-involved shootings, but the “independent” agency (the Independent Police Review Authority, or IPRA) is still under the mayor, and generally retreats from any investigation that might lead to criminal charges. Until we get investigations of cases like this out of the hands of politicians, even the best policies a police chief can impose won’t change the culture.

    Well that seemed to backfire. To summarize, Stone says don’t do exactly what the FBI did in its investigation of Hillary’s email scandal. 

     

    Police Reform

     

    Here is a fairly racist email asserting that “Jews*, Hindus/Sikhs and Chinese people” are “almost always highly successful” while “Muslims, blacks and Roma” are “professional never-do-wells” and “fare badly almost irrespective of circumstances.”

    Podesta

     

    The following email from Clinton press secretary, Brian Fallon, points out more collusion with the press (“Today Show has indicated they definitely plan to ask about guns”) and Hillary’s support for an “executive order” to close the “gun show loophole” and “impose manufacturer liability.”

    Gun Control

     

    The following “Sanders Hits” email chain points out a specific request from Hillary to do a “deeper dive” on “hits that could either by written or deployed during the next debate on Sanders.”

    Sanders Hits

     

    But, Ron Klain, former “Ebola Czar”, quickly points out that they didn’t really have anything material on Sanders, saying “that seems like a weak hit.”  You don’t get elevated to a powerful position like “Ebola Czar” without being able to quickly cut through the BS.

    Sanders Hits

     

    Of course, Podesta attempted to raise doubts over the veracity of the Wilileaks emails saying that he doesn’t “have time to figure out which docs are real and which are faked” and that he’s not happy about “being hacked by the Russians in their quest to throw the election to Donald Trump.” 

     

    While it’s a nice try, something tells us that Podesta would find the time to figure out which emails “are real and which are faked” if, in fact, any of them were fake.

  • What The Market Says – Trump Wins If…

    While the variance across the mainstream media's presidential election polls remains high, the trend in the last week appears to have been one of Trump losing ground to Hillary. While the two campaigns lob headline-grenades at one another, we leave it to the markets to decide what it will take to lead Trump to victory

    It appears that markets – Stocks, Bonds, and FX – are leading indicators of the gap between good or bad, or the lesser of two evils, depending on your perspective.

    The positive trend for Hillary appears to be catching up to stocks…

     

    Treasury yields have swung (lower) in the direction of Hillary's gains recently…

     

    And The US Dollar Index's srecent strength is supportive of Hillary…

     

    So to summarize – S&P needs to hit 2,000; 30Y yields top 2.50%, and/or USD Index weakness is all that is needed for markets to imply a Trump win (that or a Peso collapse of course).

  • Globalization Is Done

    Submitted by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

    I read a lot, been doing it for years, about finance and affiliated topics (a wide horizon of them), which means I’ve inevitably seen a wholesale lot of nonsense fly by. But for some reason, and I think I know why, Q3 2016 has been gunning for a top -or bottom- seat in that regard, and Q4 is looking to do it one better/worse.

    Apart from the fast increasingly brainless political ‘discussions’ that don’t deserve the name, in the US and UK and beyond, there are the transnational organizations, NATO, IMF, EU and all those things, all suffocating in their own hubris, things I’ve dealt with before in for instance Globalization Is Dead, But The Idea Is Not and Why There is Trump. But none of it still seems to have trickled through anywhere that I can see.

    The end of growth exposes the stupidity and ignorance of all but (and even that’s a maybe) a precious few (of our) ‘leaders’. There is no other way this could have run, because an era of growth simply selects for different people to float to the top of the pond than a period of contraction does. Can we agree on that?

    ‘Growth leaders’ only have to seduce voters into believing that they can keep growth going, and create more of it (though in reality they have no control over it at all). Anyone can do that. So ‘anyone’ who’s sufficiently hooked on power games will apply.

    ‘Contraction leaders’ have a much harder time; they must convince voters that they can minimize the ‘suffering of the herd’. Which is invariably a herd that no-one wants to belong to. A tough sell.

    Any end to growth will and must therefore inevitably change the structure of a democracy, any democracy, any society for that matter. It will lead to new leaders, and new parties, coming to the front. And it should not surprise anyone that some of these new leaders and parties will question the very structure of the democracy they are part of, if only because that structure is already undergoing change anyway.

    The tight connection between an era of economic growth (and/or contraction) and the politicians that ‘rule’ during that era is reflected in Hazel Henderson’s“economics is nothing but politics in disguise”.

    On the one hand you have the incumbent class seeking to hold on to their waning power, churning out false positive numbers and claiming that theirs is the only way to go (just more of it), and on the other hand you have a loose affiliation – to the extent there’s any affiliation at all- of left and right, individuals and parties, who smell change that they can use to their own benefit.

    They just mostly don’t know how to use it yet. But they’ll find out, or some of them will. Blaming people and groups of people for what’s gone wrong will be a major way forward, because it’s just so easy. It’s another reason why the incumbents class, the traditional parties, will go the way of the dodo: they will be blamed, and rightly so in most cases, for the fall of the economic system.

    That’ll be the number one criteria: if you’re -perceived as- part of the old guard, you’re out. Not at the flick of a switch, but nevertheless the rise of Trump and Farage and all those folks has been much faster than just about anyone would have thought possible until very recently.

    They feed on discontent, but they can do so only because that discontent has been completely ignored by the ruling classes everywhere. Which has a lot to do with the rulers in all these instances we see pop up now still being well-off, while the lower rungs of societies definitely are not.

    Moreover, if most people still had comfortable middle-class lives, the dislike of immigrants and refugees would have been so much less that Trump and Wilders and Le Pen and Alternative for Deutschland could never have ‘struck gold’. It’s the perception that the ‘new’ people are somehow to blame for one’s deteriorating living conditions that makes it fertile ground for whoever wants to use it.

    And since the far left can’t go there, the right takes over by default. Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn have brave ideas on redistribution of wealth, but there is still too much resistance, at the moment, to that, from the incumbent class and their voters, to have much chance of getting anywhere.

    Of course the traditional right wing smells the opportunity too, so Hillary (yeah, she’s right wing) and Theresa May and Sarkozy and Merkel are all orchestrating sharp turns to the right, away from their once comfortable seats in the center. They all sense that power will not be emanating from the center going forward, and it’s power, much more than principles, that they are after.

    But enough about politicians and their parties, who can and will all be voted out of power. Much harder to get rid of will be the transnational organizations, like the EU and IMF (there are many more), though they represent the ‘doomed construction’ perhaps even more than mere local or national power-hungries. The leading principle is simple: What has all the centralization led to? To today’s contracting economies.

    To that end, let’s just tear into a recent random Bloomberg piece on this week’s IMF meeting, and the ‘expert opinions’ on it:

    Existential Threat To World Order Confronts Elite At IMF Meeting

    Policy-making elites converge on Washington this week for meetings that epitomize a faith in globalization that’s at odds with the growing backlash against the inequities it creates. From Britain’s vote to leave the EU to Donald Trump’s championing of “America First,” pressures are mounting to roll back the economic integration that has been a hallmark of gatherings of the IMF and World Bank for more than 70 years. Fed by stagnant wages and diminishing job security, the populist uprising threatens to depress a world economy that IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde says is already “weak and fragile.”

     

    The calls for less integration and more trade barriers also pose risks for elevated financial markets that remain susceptible to sudden swings in investor sentiment , as underscored by recent jitters over Deutsche Bank’s financial health. “The backlash against globalization is manifesting itself in increased nationalistic sentiment, against the outside world and in favor of increasing isolation,” said Louis Kuijs at Oxford Economics in Hong Kong, a former IMF official. “If we lose consensus on what kind of a world we want to have, the world will probably be worse off.”

    Oh, but we do have consensus, Louis: Ever more people don’t want what they have now. That too is consensus. And since you said that what it takes is consensus, we should be fine then, right?!

    Also, I find the term ‘elevated markets’ interesting, even if I don’t know what it’s supposed to mean. I can only guess.

    In its latest World Economic Outlook released Tuesday, the fund highlighted the threats from the anti-trade movement to an already subdued global expansion. After growth of 3.2% in 2015, the world economy’s expansion will slow to 3.1% this year before rebounding to 3.4% in 2017, according to the report, keeping those estimates unchanged from July projections. The forecasts for U.S. growth were cut to 1.6% this year and 2.2% in 2017.

     

    “We’d like to see an end to the creeping protectionism in the world and more progress on moving ahead with free-trade agreements and other trade-creating measures,” Maurice Obstfeld, director of the IMF’s research department, said in a Bloomberg Television interview with Tom Keene. Lagarde said last week that policy makers attending the Oct. 7-9 annual meeting of the IMF and World Bank have two tasks. First, do no harm, which above all means resisting the temptation to throw up protectionist barriers to trade. And second, take action to boost lackluster global growth and make it more inclusive.

    I can see how a vote against the likes of Hollande, Hillary or Cameron constitutes a “the backlash against globalization”. What I don’t see is how that has now become the same as the anti-trade movement. When did Trump express any feelings against trade? Against international trade deals as they exist and are further prepared, yes.

    But those deals don’t define ‘trade’ to the exclusion of all other definitions. As for ‘protectionism’, that’s just a term designed to make something perfectly fine and normal look bad. Every single society on the planet should protect its basic necessities from being controlled by foreigners, either for money or for power.

    Nothing good can come of relinquishing that control for any society, ever. There‘s not a thing wrong with protecting your control of your own water and food and shelter, and these are indeed things that should never be traded or negotiated in global markets.

    So claiming that ‘do no harm’ equals NOT protecting your basics is nothing but a self-serving and dangerous kind of baloney coming your way courtesy of those people whose sociopathic plush seats and plusher bank accounts depend on your ongoing personal loss of control over what you need to survive.

    It’s what any ‘body’ does that has reached the limits of its growth: it starts feeding on its host. Be it a cancerous tumor, the Roman Empire or our present perennial-growth driven economic models, they’re all the same same thing because they are fueled by the same -thoughtless- principle.


    Ilargi: See that upward line at the end? Well, it’s an IMF growth ‘forecast’. Which are always so wrong, and always revised downward, that you must wonder if the term ‘forecast’ is even appropriate

    Achieving even those modest objectives may prove elusive. Free trade has become polling poison in the U.S. presidential campaign, with Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton now criticizing a trade deal with Pacific nations, which isn’t yet ratified in the U.S., that she had praised when it was being negotiated.

     

    Republican challenger Trump has lashed out at Mexico and China, threatening to slap big tariffs on imports from both nations. Rattled by the U.K.’s June vote to leave the EU, European leaders know it may just be the start of a political earthquake that’s threatening the continent’s old certainties.

    In case you didn’t catch it, “..the continent’s old certainties” is a goal-seeked term. Old in this case means not older than, say, 1950, if that. Look back 100 years and “the continent’s old certainties” dress in a whole other meaning.

    Next year sees elections in Germany and France, the euro area’s two largest economies, and in the Netherlands. In all three countries anti-establishment forces are gaining ground. With growing resentment of the EU from Budapest to Madrid, policy makers have described the current surge in populism as the greatest threat to the bloc since its creation out of the ashes of World War II. There are also growing signs that the union and Britain are heading for a so-called “hard exit” that would sharply reduce the bloc’s trade and financial ties with the island nation. U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May said on Oct. 2 that she’ll begin her country’s withdrawal from the EU in the first quarter of next year.

    I have addressed the misleading use of the term ‘populism’ before. In its core, it simple means something like: for, and by, the people. How that can be presented as somehow being a threat to democracy is a mystery to me. They should have picked another term, but settled on this one.

    And in the western media consensus, it comprises anything from Trump to Beppe Grillo, via Hungary’s Orban and Nigel Farage, Spain’s Podemos, Greece’s Syriza and Germany’s AfD. All these completely different movements have one thing only in common: they protest the failed and fast deteriorating status quo, and receive a lot of support from their people for doing that.

    Because it’s the people that bear the brunt of the failure, not the leadership; even Greece’s politicians still pay themselves a comparatively lush salary.

    As for Britain, it’s the textbook example of utter blindness. Those who were/are well provided for, be they politically left or right, missed out on what was happening around them so much they had no idea Brexit was a real option. And in the 15 weeks since the Brexit vote, all anyone has done in the UK is seeking to blame someone, anyone but themselves for what they all failed to see coming.

    Perhaps the biggest beneficiary of free trade over the past generation, China, still restricts access to many of its key industries, with economists worried about increasingly mercantilist policies. It’s also seeking a larger role in the existing global framework, with entry of the yuan into the IMF’s basket of reserve currencies on Oct. 1 the most recent example. An all-out trade war would be a disaster for China’s economy, with Trump’s threatened tariff potentially wiping off almost 5% of its GDP, according to a calculation by Daiwa Capital Markets.

     

    John Williamson, whose Washington Consensus of open trade and deregulation was effectively the governing ethos for the IMF and World Bank for decades, said the 2008-09 financial meltdown had undercut support for economic integration. “There was agreement on globalization before the crisis and that’s one thing that’s been lost since the financial crisis,” said Williamson, a former senior fellow at Peterson Institute for International Economics who is now retired.

     

    The growing opposition to economic integration has been fueled by a sub-par global recovery. “Perhaps the most striking macroeconomic fact about advanced economies today is how anemic demand remains in the face of zero interest rates,” former IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard wrote last week in a policy brief for the Peterson Institute.

    These ‘experts’ seem to have an idea there’s something amiss, but they don’t have the answers. Which is impossible to come and say out loud if you’re an expert. Experts must pretend to know it all, or at least know why they don’t know. “There was agreement on globalization before the crisis”, and now it’s no longer there. That they see.

    That they ain’t coming back, neither the agreement on it nor globalization itself, is a step too far for them. To publicly acknowledge, at least. That Blanchard expresses surprise about ‘anemic demand’ at the same time that interest rates are equally anemic is something else.

    That both are two sides of the same coin, or at least may be, is something he should at least mention. That is to say, low rates induce deflation, though they are allegedly supposed to induce the opposite. Economists are mostly very misguided people.

    The world economy is getting some lift after rising at an annual rate just shy of 3% in the first half of this year, according to David Hensley, director of global economics for JPMorgan. But much of the boost will come from a lessening of drags rather than from a big burst of fresh growth, said Peter Hooper at Deutsche Bank Securities, a former Federal Reserve official. Recessions in Brazil and Russia are set to come to an end, while in the U.S. cutbacks in inventories and in oil and gas drilling will wane.

    Please allow me to chip in here. ‘Lessening of drags’ in a nonsense term. And so is the idea that “..recessions in Brazil and Russia are set to come to an end”. That’s all goal-seeked day-dreaming. Smoke or drink something nice with it and you’ll feel good for a few hours, but that doesn’t make it real.

    “I’m characterizing the global economy as something akin to a driverless car that’s stuck in the slow lane,” said David Stockton, a former Fed official and now chief economist at consultants LH Meyer. “Everybody feels like they’re being taken for a ride but they’re pretty nervous because they can’t see anybody in control.”

    I really like this one, because off the bat I thought Stockton had it all wrong. What I think is the appropriate metaphor, is not “a driverless car that’s stuck in the slow lane”, but one of those cars in a carousel at a carnival, a merry-go-round, where you can sit in it forever and you always end up in the same spot. And the only one who’s in control in the boss who hollers that you need to pay another quarter if you want to keep on riding.

    Or, alternatively, and to stay at the carnival, it’s a bumper car, which allows you to hit other cars and get hit, but never to leave the rink. That’s the global economy. Not getting anywhere, and running out of quarters fast.

    Still, for the first time in the past few years, Stockton said he sees a real upside risk to his forecast of continued global growth of around 3% next year. And that’s coming from the possibility of looser fiscal policy in the U.S. and Europe. In the U.S., both Clinton and Trump have pledged to boost infrastructure spending on roads, bridges and the like. In Europe, rising populism provides a powerful incentive for governments to abandon austerity ahead of the elections next year – and perhaps beyond. Whether such a shift will be enough to mollify those who have been on the losing side of globalization for decades is debatable, however.

    “The consensus in policy-making circles was that more trade meant better economic growth,” said Standard Chartered head of Greater China economic research Ding Shuang, who worked at the IMF from 1997 to 2010. “But the benefits weren’t shared equitably, so now we see a round of anti-globalization, anti-free trade. “Globalization will stall for the moment, until we can find a way to share those benefits,” he added.

    Globalization is done. And while we can discuss whether that’s of necessity or not, and I continue to contend that the end of growth equals the end of all centralization including globalization, fact is that globalization was never designed to share anything at all, other than perhaps wealth among elites, and low wages among everyone else.

    The EU and IMF have not delivered on what they promised, in the same way that traditional parties have not, from the US to UK to basically all of Europe. They promised growth, and growth is gone. They may have delivered for their pay masters, but they lost the rest of the world.

    Anything else is just hot air. But that doesn’t mean they will hesitate to use their control of the military and police to hold on to what they got. In fact, that’s guaranteed. But it would only be viable in a dictatorial society, and even then.

    We are transcending into an entirely different stage of our lives, our economies, our societies. Growth is gone, it went out the window long ago only to be replaced with debt. And that’s going to take a lot of getting used to. But there’s nothing that says we couldn’t see it coming.

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