Today’s News 8th October 2016

  • Pope Francis: Traitor To Western Civilization?

    Authored by Antonius Aquinas, (annotated by Acting-Man.com's Pater Tenebrarum)

    Disqualified

    There has been no greater advocate of mass Muslim migration into Europe than the purported head of the Catholic Church, Pope Francis.  At a recent conference, he urged that “asylum seekers” be accepted, “through the acts of mercy that promote their integration into the European context and beyond.”*

     

    nopepope-francis

    Before we let Antonius continue with his refreshingly politically incorrect disquisition, we want to remind readers of two previous articles that have appeared here on the topic of the current pope, one that contrasted Pope John Paul II’s deep understanding of economics and economic freedom with the muddled socialism of Pope Francis (see A Tale of Two Popes for the details) and our critique of Francis’ green-red encyclical Laudatio Si – Sulla Cura Della Casa Commune (see Papal Eco-Hysteria for the details on that one). Frankly, we have no idea what possessed the College of Cardinals when it picked him. Since when does the Church feel a need to pander to the left?

     

    Jorge Bergoglio is the “purported pope” of the Catholic Church because, as certain theologians have argued, he was neither validly ordained as a priest or consecrated as a bishop in the traditional Catholic rites of Holy Orders.  Since a pope must first be a bishop, in particular the bishop of Rome, Bergoglio cannot, therefore, be pope.

    He is not a Catholic pope, but head of a new “Conciliar Church” which was concocted at the time of the Second Vatican Council (1962-65), actually an “Anti-council,” and in the tumultuous years that followed, which witnessed fundamental changes in doctrine and the Sacraments, most damaging the promulgation of the New Mass by Paul VI-Montini.

    The New Church also did away with its traditional view on evangelization and conversions and adopted the previously condemned heresy of “syncretism,” which contends that “we all worship the same god,” and that “one religion is as good as another.”  This idea pervades post-Vatican II Catholicism and is what Francis bases most of his justification for the mass migration onto lands which once made up Christendom.

    While Bergoglio cannot be pope on technical grounds, he is also disqualified for his blasphemies and heretical actions, words, and teachings, all of which have flowed at a breathtaking pace.  From the infamous, “who am I to judge,” about sodomites, to his alteration of two millennia of teaching on divorce and remarriage, to such whoppers as “God does not exist,” Bergoglio has placed himself “outside of the Church” and thus cannot hold ecclesiastical office and certainly not that of supreme pontiff.

     

    Rotating Isabella

    Despite the overwhelming theological and empirical evidence that the Chair of St. Peter is vacant (sede vacante) and its restoration will take place in its Founder’s good time, for the vast majority of Catholics and the world at large, Jorge Bergoglio is pope and his actions have consequences.

    And, since his promotion and support of mass Muslim migration is leading to not only the destruction of what is left of Western Civilization and the species which largely created that civilization – white, gentile, heterosexual men – Bergoglio and the organization which he represents, must be stopped.  If Pope Francis and his New World Order cohorts are not countered, whites, and the cultures which they built, will vanish.

     

    urban_ii_cropped

    Pope Blessed Urban II, who delivered a rousing speech in AD 1095 that inspired the first crusade.

    Painting by Francisco de Zurbarán

     

    The Catholic Church is an integral part of Western Civilization even if Bergoglio and the pack of cultural Marxist prelates which surround him will not admit it.  It was the Church that preserved the heritage of Antiquity from the barbarian invasions during and after the fall of the Roman Empire.

    Without the actions of the monks and other clerics, many of the classical works would have been lost forever, leaving future generations bereft of the wisdom and treasures of the Ancients.  It was the Church that was the indispensable part in the formulation of the greatest civilization known to mankind, Christendom.

    Moreover, it was the Catholic Church, largely through the Papacy, that inspired the Crusades, which for a glorious time drove out the Muslims from the Holy Land and returned it to its rightful possessors.

    It is undeniable that the Catholic Faith (which Bergoglio is supposedly its chief representative) inspired numerous European sovereigns, most notably Queen Isabella, to take up arms against the Mohammedans.  It was her faith which drove the heroic queen to free the Iberian Peninsula from the Muslim yoke, which then allowed her to finance Christopher Columbus on his epic, world-changing voyage.

     

    isabel_la_catolica-2

    Queen Isabella I of Castile – she funded the famous 1492 voyage of Columbus, and on the side completed the Reconquista of Spain. Incidentally, during her reign the crime rate in Spain is said to have declined to its lowest level in ages.

    Painting attributed to Gerard David

     

    Yet, Bergoglio and his fellow heretical Churchmen assiduously avoid any reminiscing of such facts and instead are deliberately encouraging Muslim migration into the lands that Europeans spilled blood and sacrificed treasures to defend – Queen Isabella must be turning over in her grave!

     

    Conclusion

    If Western Civilization is to be salvaged, those who seek its destruction must be removed from their positions of authority and influence.  Whether through political means, armed revolt, or de-legitimization, those who hold such power must be toppled.  Exposing “Pope Francis” for what he is, or is not, will go a long way in that most vital and necessary task.

  • Americans' 2016 Choices: Lesser-Able Or Lesser-Evil

    Authored by Ben Tanosborn,

    Once again, the quadrennial apparition has reached the dreaded countdown to political ignominy, placing American democracy on trial once again… yet quickly dismissing the charges, letting the political circus continue with its three-ring democracy made up of a dangerous quasi-autocratic executive, a corrupt special-interests Congress, and an ugly, politically tainted judiciary.  But in 2016, the choice of whether to reelect Lesser-Evil for the umpteenth time might be looking at Evil as a new candidate: Lesser-Able.

    This time around the duopoly which played musical chairs in the past to maintain power in a flawed undemocratic fashion does not appear to be firmly in charge, and our overly mined, make-believe democracy has found a rich vein of discontent, particularly in the white populace.  Somehow, the political elites that run the two-party system appear to have lost control of the rank-and-file.  And the Republican-R has metamorphosed from uncompromising conservatism into bigoted Repugnism while the Democratic-D is seen as having reached the limits of corrupt Demagoguery, unashamedly riding the shoulders of the minority-class represented in 90+ percent of Black voters and 70+ percent of the Latino voting bloc – many of them in sympathetic support to a massive 12-18 million of undocumented immigrants-at-arms.

    For several decades many, at times most, Americans have gone to the polls every four years and cast their vote for a candidate they have jokingly, yet sometimes in profound seriousness, identified as Lesser-Evil.  And even if the clownish-dude appeared wearing a mask, he was often mischaracterized by conservative Republicans as well as by liberal Democrats, or even Independents, as offering the lesser evil; a reasonable compromise or civic-consent for living in a nation that up to a generation ago did provide most of its people with a comparatively decent standard of living vis-à-vis much of the world.

    And that post-WWII economic blessing clouded our domestic vision, deflecting pride in our democracy to pride in our empire and military might.  We started to see ourselves as saviors of the planet and began to call the president, someone who should lead us as First Citizen, our commander-in-chief.  Our democracy decayed and we started to go to the quadrennial dates to select a commander-in-chief, under the fallacious pretense of an ill-conceived preparedness for war; giving up on the idea of electing a First Citizen, someone who could lead the charge in tackling the myriad socio-economic problems accosting the nation; problems that loom larger today as our economic preeminence in the world is fading away.

    As America did bid farewell to its popular First Citizen – and last world-class American statesman, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, subsequent selected leaders have been branded as commander-in-chief, all serving at the pleasure of an American elite, which has sadly resulted in bringing down a prosperous, globally respected United States of America from its lofty pedestal: a nation of promise for all its people sinking to the mediocrity of another fading empire neglecting half of its citizens in a last hurrah to save itself.

    Our ridiculously long presidential campaign, dubbed internationally as a celebrity horror show, has had for many TV viewers a Colosseum-worthy bloodiness of Roman circus entertainment while for others it has underlined the absurdity of an American body politic which this time has reached the bottom of the barrel, without anticipating the possible consequences, by making the choices Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

    Although in this 58th presidential election we will still be referring to the two candidates as potential commander-in-chief, it will start to become evident that the economic and social ills that polarize the nation require a First Citizen, not a First Warrior, and that a commander-in-chief just won’t do!  Furthermore, an end to the polarization simply will not occur as long as our political system consists of only two political parties where the membership in both maintain profiles with little or no commonality – racial, economic, or even philosophical – to try and match, or at least approach the diversity in the nation.

    So once again much of the electorate in the two tents is confronted with voting for the sempiternal Lesser-Evil, except that this time around many would-be voters see Evil with a lesser-able personality.  And that new personality, Lesser-Able, has become the figure of the Pied Piper of the discontent, Donald Trump, who many see as both unqualified and worrisome.

    In less than five weeks we’ll find out whether Lesser-Evil is reelected or Lesser-Able is to assume the reins.  In either case we’ll have to resign ourselves to having made a choice for a commander-in-chief of a declining empire, instead of a capable First Citizen ready to tackle our nation’s economic and social ills.

  • Florida Governor Denies Clinton Request For Voter Registration Extension

    As Florida Governor Rick Scott has called on every available resource in his state to help with Hurricane Matthew, Clinton campaign lawyers are apparently already bombarding him with requests to extend the voter registration deadline of October 11.  So, just to be clear, traveling to Louisiana weeks after flooding there would have negatively impacted recovery efforts, even though local politicians supported visits, but lobbying for voter registration extensions while a hurricane is actually in progress is ok?

    But, according to the Washington Examiner, Scott has denied the request saying “I’m not going to extend it…everybody has had a lot of time to register.”  A Scott spokeswoman added that “for any political party to ask this in the middle of a storm is political.”

    Florida Gov. Rick Scott said Thursday that the state would not extend its Oct. 11 voter-registration deadline in response to Hurricane Matthew, throwing cold water on a request from the Clinton campaign.

     

    “I’m not going to extend it,” the governor told reporters Thursday. “Everybody has had a lot of time to register. On top of that, we have lots of opportunities to vote: early voting, absentee voting, Election Day. So I don’t intend to make any changes.”

     

    “For any political party to ask this in the middle of a storm is political,” Scott spokeswoman Jackie Schutz said Thursday. “Our No. 1 focus is protecting life. There’ll be another day for politics.”

    That said, we’re sure the George Soros legal armies are amassing in Florida and getting ready to launch an all out offensive on this obvious attempt at suppressing minority and low-income votes.  In fact, Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook is already laying the media groundwork saying that people will need more time to register because of the storm and they “expect that the governor and local officials will make that possible.”  

    Hillary Clinton’s campaign manager, Robby Mook, said Thursday that they hoped election officials in the Sunshine State would consider making accommodations for voters affected by Hurricane Matthew.

     

    The one thing that we are hoping and expecting is that officials in Florida will adapt deadline to account for the storm,” Robby Mook told reporters.

     

    “The voter registration deadline in Florida is Oct. 11 and then our hope would be that a little bit more time would be given for people who were expecting to be able to get registered before the election and we certainly expect that the governor and local officials will make that possible,” he said.

    The extension requests come just one day after Clinton’s team created controversy by buying $63,000 of ads on the Weather Channel in Florida to run during the hurricane.  The ads were scheduled to play from Thursday through Tuesday in an obvious attempt to exploit the storm for political gain.  The plan, however, backfired for the Clinton camp, and after public outcry Clinton decided to suspend the buy. 

    In addition to the public outcry, the exploitation of the storm drew some criticism from the Trump team with Trump Jr. calling the move “disgusting.”

     

    Of course, RNC chairman Reince Priebus also chimed in calling the whole situation “shameful.”

    Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus accused the Clinton campaign Thursday of trying to cash in on the weather event, and he suggested the Democratic nominee was putting her interests before the needs of the people of Florida.

     

    “Couldn’t let this crisis go to waste? Shameful [Hillary Clinton’s] campaign even considered exploiting Hurricane Matthew for political gain,” the RNC chair said Thursday on social media.

     

    “Pulling these ads after getting caught won’t cut it. [Hillary Clinton] should apologize for using storm for votes,” he said. “The people in [the] path of #HurricaneMatthew need our prayers, support, and charity.”

    Everyone ready for some Florida “voter suppression” lawsuits?

  • Commuter-In-Chief: Obama Cuts Sentences Of Some More Drug Dealers

    Yesterday, President Obama commuted the sentences of another 102 inmates, most of whom were serving time for drug-related offenses.  According to The Hill, the additional 102 commutations brings Obama’s total to 744 over the course of his presidency, more than the past 11 presidents combined, and brings his 2016 total to 590, more than any single year in U.S. history.

    And, of course, the White House continued to brag about the record-breaking commutations on twitter.

    “These statistics make clear that the president and his administration have succeeded in efforts to reinvigorate the clemency process,” White House counsel Neil Eggleston wrote in a blog post. “Beyond the statistics, though, are stories of individuals who have overcome the longest of odds to earn this second chance.”

     

    The following chart from Pardon Power helps to put the scale of commutations under the Obama administration into perspective.

    Obama Commutations

     

    Meanwhile, with just 3 months left in office, The Hill points out that Obama is accelerating the use of his clemency power

    With just three months left in office, Obama is accelerating the use of his clemency power. Obama in August handed out commutations to 325 inmates — including 214 on Aug. 3, the largest single-day total since 1900.

     

    That alone nearly doubled the number of commutations granted during Obama’s presidency.

     

    Obama first launched a clemency initiative in 2014 to review sentences of non-violent drug offenders who would receive shorter prison terms under today’s guidelines.

     

    It’s part of the president’s broader push to reform the criminal justice system.

     

    Facing pressure from reform advocates to pick up the pace of commutations, the administration has tweaked its strategy to accommodate more inmates.

     

    He has shortened some inmates’ sentences without immediately releasing them, leaving them years left to serve. That has allowed Obama to grant commutations to prisoners who have committed more serious offenses.

    Transformational change?

  • US Officially Accuses Russia Of Hacking Democratic Party, State Election Systems

    Update: the machinery begins to move:

    • CHAIRMAN OF U.S. SENATE CYBER SECURITY SUBCOMMITTEE TO INTRODUCE BILL IMPOSING SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA AFTER U.S. POLITICAL HACKING ACCUSATIONS

    * * *

    After months of speculation whether the US would officially accuse Russia of being responsible for various intrusions and hacks, primarily involving the Democratic party, moments ago we finally got the long-anticipated confirmation when the US named Russia as the actor behind the hacking attempts on political organizations and, more importantly, state election systems and accused Putin of carrying out a wide-ranging campaign to interfere with the 2016 elections, including by hacking the computers of the Democratic National Committee and other political officials.

    In a statement, the US “intelligence community” said that it is “confident” that the Russian government “directed the recent compromises of emails from US persons and institutions, including from US political organizations”, the Department of Homeland Security and Director of National Intelligence on Election Security said in a joint statement.

    The US added that “these thefts and disclosures are intended to interfere with the US election process”.

    “We believe, based on the scope and sensitivity of these efforts, that only Russia’s senior-most officials could have authorized these activities,” a U.S. government statement said on Friday about hacking of political groups. Alternatively, the activities could have been authorized by some “senior-most” US official, with the intention of creating the first false flag cyberwar.

    The statement by the Department of Homeland Security and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence did not blame the Russian government for hacking attempts against state election systems, but said “scanning and probing” of those systems originated in most cases from servers operated by a Russian company.

    “These thefts and disclosures are intended to interfere with the U.S. election process,” the statement said. “However, we are not now in a position to attribute this activity to the Russian Government,” the statement said.

    The accusation, made by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Department of Homeland Security, came as pressure was growing from within the administration and some lawmakers to hold Moscow accountable for a set of actions apparently aimed at sowing discord around the election. Sure enough, the formal attribution to Russia, something that has long been discussed in information security circles, represents a step-up in rhetoric by the Obama administration.

    The administration also blamed Moscow for the hack of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the subsequent leak of private email addresses and cell phone numbers of Democratic lawmakers.  A series of other leaks of hacked material followed, all of which are suspected of being conducted by Russia-sponsored hackers.

    Russia has denied any connection to the hacks. As the official statement by the DHS and ODNI notes, the actual party doing the accusation of Russia is the US intelligence community, which as recently as a month ago was breached itself when a domestic “Snowden 2.0”, Harold T. Martin, was arrested recently after obtaining and attempting to sell an unknown number of internal NSA programs.

    Here is the full statement:

    While we are confident that Putin is laughing at this statement and/or threat, a question emerges: since the US has said it would treat cyberattacks by “foreign state powers” as the equivalent of an act of war, will the US now escalate and use this “naming of Russia” as a global master hacker (we assume the recent NSA hack will not be blamed on the Kremlin too, now that an American was arrested), as a pretext to accelerate diplomatic and/or military actions against Russia.

  • The War In Syria: Who Is Actually To Blame?

    Submitted by Darius Shahtahmasebi via TheAntiMedia.org,

    Depending on which news outlets you follow, your understanding of what is going on in Syria is likely coming from one of two main camps — Western media or Eastern media. Western media, in tandem with the Arab Gulf states, has almost completely pinned the blame for the crisis in Syria on the current president, Bashar al-Assad. Any residual blame left for the taking is delivered to Russia and Iran.

    Those of us who inform ourselves daily from an eclectic range of media sources tend to have a broader understanding of the conflict in Syria. The more critical one becomes of both ends of the media spectrum, the more one can evaluate the veracity of the respective outlets (for example, the peddling of statistics from a T-shirt shop in England versus the use of satellite imagery).

    Analyzing all forms of media leads to only one conclusion regarding the current crisis in Syria: all of the parties involved have an overwhelming amount of blood on their hands and are playing a role in the ongoing war. However, the evidence suggests there is one group of nations, headed by the world’s superpower, that has once again created a humanitarian catastrophe rivaling that of history’s worst dictators.

    Although corporate media has portrayed the situation in Syria as being one of a popular uprising against a brutal and murderous dictator, the truth is far more complex.

    According to four-star General Wesley Clark, Syria was one of seven countries the Pentagon targeted for regime change following the attacks of September 11, 2001. The others were Libya, Lebanon, Somalia, Sudan, Iraq, and Iran. This intention to take out Syria’s leader prior to the start conflict in 2011 was confirmed by Wikileaks (you can access the relevant chapter in its entirety here). According to Julian Assange, Assad’s overthrow was planned as far back as 2006. As explained by MintPress News:

    “WikiLeaks cables reveal these plans came from the Israeli government, and show that the U.S. government intended to work with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar and Egypt to encourage the breakdown of the Assad regime as a way of also weakening Iran and Hezbollah.”

     

    MintPress News further explains that according to Assange, “…the U.S. government sought to make the Syrian government appear weak by causing Assad to overreact to the threat of Islamic extremists crossing into his country.”

    Sound familiar?

    Former French Foreign Minister Roland Dumas further confirmed these claims when he claimed top British officials approached him to ask if he wanted to participate in their plans to prepare for war against Syria two years prior to the eruption of the conflict.

    Dumas stated:

    “This operation goes way back. It was prepared, preconceived, and planned… in the region it is important to know that this Syrian regime has a very anti-Israeli stance.

     

    “Consequently, everything that moves in the region… and I have this from a former Israeli Prime Minister who told me we will try to get on with our neighbors but those who don´t agree with us will be destroyed. It is a type of politics, a view of history, why not after all. But one should know about it.”

    This should all be headline news, but apparently what happens to Kim Kardashian — notable laureate that she is — is far more important.

    Having instigated the conflict in 2011, the U.S. establishment predicted Assad would fall in a similar manner to that of Muammar Gaddafi. However, nuclear giants Russia and China, having been completely duped by Western promises that Gaddafi would not be forcibly removed from power in 2011, used this knowledge to consistently veto any proposal to interfere in the Syrian conflict.

    Despite the deceptiveness of NATO’s operations in Libya, Russia has tried to facilitate the end of the Syrian war for some time now. In fact, Russia put forward a proposal in 2012 that Assad would step down as a part of a potential peace deal. As stated by former Finnish president and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Martti Ahtisaari, “it was an opportunity lost in 2012.”

    Why did the Americans reject this proposal? Because, as acknowledged by Ahtisaari:

    “Nothing happened because I think all these, and many others, were convinced that Assad would be thrown out of office in a few weeks so there was no need to do anything.”

    Four years later, the war is still raging. Western media has focused on the current situation in Eastern Aleppo, which has seen Russian and Syrian warplanes ravage the terrorist-held area. I say “terrorist-held area” because the areas being targeted by Russia and Syria are held by al-Nusra offshoot Jabhat Fateh al-Sham and its affiliated groups. Al-Sham is essentially al-Qaeda in Syria but was forced to change its name because Russia has repeatedly requested that the U.S. distinguish between moderate rebel groups and those that wish to be identified with al-Nusra. Citing Reuters, the Guardian referenced the social media outlet of another Aleppo-based rebel faction known as the Levant Front, also quoting one of its officials. The Levant Front is also heavily affiliated with al-Qaeda.

    Remember when George W. Bush told us we were at war with al-Qaeda following the attacks on September 11, 2001? Apparently, they are our ally now. Essentially, what Western media and Western governments are saying is that the Assad and Putin regimes are wrong to be targeting al-Qaeda-affiliated groups, something the U.S. establishment has claimed to be doing for over a decade.

    Western media has also conveniently ignored attacks from these so-called moderate rebels, who have been shelling government-held areas of Aleppo. Aleppo is home to 1.5 million civilians. Conversely, fewer than 300,000 civilians are trapped in rebel-held areas of Aleppo (do you really expect these al-Qaeda affiliated rebels to look after and provide shelter for civilians?).

    And where did these rebels (insert: terrorists) receive their weaponry, funding, and training? This is a topic for a separate article, but one can be assured it was not from the Russian and Syrian regimes. The U.S. establishment has poured in an immense amount of money, only to see failed programs in which the weaponry (and often fighters) end up in the hands of al-Qaeda. This is not a new or unforeseen problem, either; the New York Times reported as far back as 2012 that the majority of weapons being sent to Syria had ended up in the hands of extremists.

    Is Russia sending arms to jihadists? No.

    Even now, as Russia and the United States coalition have stepped up their involvement in recent years, the U.S. refuses to coordinate and respond to Russia’s repeated requests to work together. If the stated goal was to truly eradicate ISIS and terrorism in the region, the U.S. would surely love to work in tandem with the Russian authorities. However, the U.S. has shown time and time again it will not tolerate any progress Russia is making in combating ISIS or groups such as al-Nusra.

    No one would deny the governments of Syria, Russia, and Iran have an enormous amount of blood on their hands. Allegations and claims by the United Nations that the Syrian government has tortured and killed detainees on a massive scale – a crime against humanity – are proof alone that the Syrian regime needs to face accountability for its actions.

    However, the hypocrisy of opposing one Middle Eastern dictator while supporting others responsible for truly heinous crimes raises questions regarding the United States motives in Syria. In Libya, Muammar Gaddafi had a cozy relationship with former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair; the British government would send dissidents to Libya to be tortured (before the British government turned their back on Gaddafi in 2011).

    So, who is responsible for the current crisis in Syria?

    Syria was once a middle-income country before the conflict erupted into a humanitarian catastrophe. The evidence at hand, in particular from overlooked Western sources, overwhelmingly points to outside intervention, by which external powers have conspired, plotted, and poured billions upon billions of dollars into arming extremist opposition groups to take out an unfriendly regime. The powers-that-be could have allowed Assad’s removal via Russia’s proposed peace deal in 2012, but they decided not to accept it — and in turn have maximized the death toll of the conflict.

    Do not underestimate the power of the CIA to manufacture opposition to regimes unfriendly to the West. Do not underestimate the West’s ability to concern itself more with geopolitical and strategic concerns rather than humanitarian ones – a point that is consistently ignored in Western coverage of the Syrian conflict. One only needs to turn to history to see this approach has been a dominant tool of American foreign policy for decades. The most strikingly obvious example of this – to which the CIA has admitted its involvement – is when the U.S. and U.K. instigated a coup to overthrow the democratically elected leader of Iran, Mohammad Mosaddegh, over oil.

    The Guardian explained:

    “Britain, and in particular Sir Anthony Eden, the foreign secretary, regarded Mosaddeq as a serious threat to its strategic and economic interests after the Iranian leader nationalised the British Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, latterly known as BP. But the UK needed US support. The Eisenhower administration in Washington was easily persuaded.”

    If Russia had intervened to save the Iranian regime in 1953 from clamping down on a CIA-manufactured uprising, would we be blaming Russia and Iran for the crisis that unfolded?

    Surely not.

  • Wikileaks Releases Hillary's Paid Wall Street Speech Transcripts: Hundreds Of "Sensitive" Excerpts

    While the media is transfixed with the just released Washington Post leak of a private Donald Trump conversation from 2005 in which he was speaking "lewdly" about women, and for which he has apologized, roughly at the same time, Wikileaks released part one of what it dubbed the "Podesta emails", which it describes as "a series on deals involving Hillary Clinton campaign Chairman John Podesta. Mr Podesta is a long-term associate of the Clintons and was President Bill Clinton's Chief of Staff from 1998 until 2001. Mr Podesta also owns the Podesta Group with his brother Tony, a major lobbying firm and is the Chair of the Center for American Progress (CAP), a Washington DC-based think tank."

    While the underlying story in this specific case involves the alleged kickbacks received by the Clinton Foundation from the Russian government-controlled "Uranium One", a story which has been profiled previously by the NYT, and about which Wikileaks adds that "as Russian interests gradually took control of Uranium One millions of dollars were donated to the Clinton Foundation between 2009 and 2013 from individuals directly connected to the deal including the Chairman of Uranium One, Ian Telfer. Although Mrs Clinton had an agreement with the Obama White House to publicly identify all donors to the Clinton Foundation, the contributions from the Chairman of Uranium One were not publicly disclosed by the Clintons", what caught our attention is an email from Tony Carr, a Research Director at Hillary for America, in which he lay outs hundreds of excerpts from the heretofore missing transcripts of Hillary Clinton's infamous Wall Street speeches, with an emphasis on those which should be flagged as they may be damaging to Hillary.

    But first, here are the greatest hits as conveniently flagged by the Clinton Campaign itself on page one of the 80 page addendum dubbed "awkward"

    Hillary Clinton: “I'm Kind Of Far Removed” From The Struggles Of The Middle Class “Because The Life I've Lived And The Economic, You Know, Fortunes That My Husband And I Now Enjoy.” “And I am not taking a position on any policy, but I do think there is a growing sense of anxiety and even anger in the country over the feeling that the game is rigged.  And I never had that feeling when I was growing up.  Never. I mean, were there really rich people, of course there were.  My father loved to complain about big business and big government, but we had a solid middle class upbringing.  We had good public schools.  We had accessible health care.  We had our little, you know, one-family house that, you know, he saved up his money, didn't believe in mortgages.  So I lived that.  And now, obviously, I'm kind of far removed because the life I've lived and the economic, you know, fortunes that my husband and I now enjoy, but I haven't forgotten it.”  [Hillary Clinton Remarks at Goldman-Black Rock, 2/4/14]

     

    When A Questioner At Goldman Sachs Said She Raised Money For Hillary Clinton In 2008, Hillary Clinton Joked “You Are The Smartest People.” “PARTICIPANT:  Secretary, Ann Chow from Houston, Texas.  I have had the honor to raise money for you when you were running for president in Texas. MS. CLINTON:  You are the smartest people. PARTICIPANT:  I think you actually called me on my cell phone, too.  I talked to you afterwards.” [ Speech to Goldman Sachs, 2013 IBD Ceo Annual Conference, 6/4/13]

     

    Hillary Clinton Joked That If Lloyd Blankfein Wanted To Run For Office, He Should “Would Leave Goldman Sachs And Start Running A Soup Kitchen Somewhere. “ “MR. BLANKFEIN:  I’m saying for myself.             MS. CLINTON:  If you were going to run here is what I would tell you to do —             MR. BLANKFEIN:  Very hypothetical. MS. CLINTON:  I think you would leave Goldman Sachs and start running a soup kitchen somewhere.             MR. BLANKFEIN:  For one thing the stock would go up. MS. CLINTON:  Then you could be a legend in your own time both when you were there and when you left.” [ Speech to Goldman Sachs, 2013 IBD Ceo Annual Conference, 6/4/13]

     

    Hillary Clinton Noted President Clinton Had Spoken At The Same Goldman Summit Last Year, And Blankfein Joked “He Increased Our Budget.” “SECRETARY CLINTON:  Well, first, thanks for having me here and giving me a chance to know a little bit more about the builders and the innovators who you’ve gathered.  Some of you might have been here last year, and my husband was, I guess, in this very same position.  And he came back and was just thrilled by— MR. BLANKFEIN:  He increased our budget.              SECRETARY CLINTON:  Did he? MR. BLANKFEIN:  Yes.  That’s why we —              SECRETARY CLINTON:  Good.  I think he—I think he encouraged you to grow it a little, too.  But it really was a tremendous experience for him, so I’ve been looking forward to it and hope we have a chance to talk about a lot of things.” [Goldman Sachs Builders And Innovators Summit, 10/29/13]

     

    Clinton Said When She Got To State, Employees “Were Not Mostly Permitted To Have Handheld Devices.”  “You know, when Colin Powell showed up as Secretary of State in 2001, most State Department employees still didn't even have computers on their desks. When I got there they were not mostly permitted to have handheld devices. I mean, so you're thinking how do we operate in this new environment dominated by technology, globalizing forces? We have to change, and I can't expect people to change if I don't try to model it and lead it.”  [Clinton Speech For General Electric’s Global Leadership Meeting – Boca Raton, FL, 1/6/14]

     

    Clinton Joked It’s “Risky” For Her To Speak To A Group Committed To Futures Markets  Given Her Past Whitewater Scandal.  “Now, it's always a little bit risky for me to come speak to a group that is committed to the futures markets because — there's a few knowing laughs — many years ago, I actually traded in the futures markets. I mean, this was so long ago, it was before computers were invented, I think. And I worked with a group of like-minded friends and associates who traded in pork bellies and cotton and other such things, and I did pretty well. I invested about a thousand dollars and traded up to about a hundred thousand. And then my daughter was born, and I just didn't think I had enough time or mental space to figure out anything having to do with trading other than trading time with my daughter for time with the rest of my life. So I got out, and I thought that would be the end of it.” [Remarks to CME Group, 11/18/13]

     

    Hillary Clinton Said Jordan Was Threatened Because “They Can’t Possibly Vet All Those Refugees So They Don’t Know If, You Know, Jihadists Are Coming In Along With Legitimate Refugees.”  “So I think you’re right to have gone to the places that you visited because there’s a discussion going on now across the region to try to see where there might be common ground to deal with the threat posed by extremism and particularly with Syria which has everyone quite worried, Jordan because it’s on their border and they have hundreds of thousands of refugees and they can’t possibly vet all those refugees so they don’t know if, you know, jihadists are coming in along with legitimate refugees. Turkey for the same reason.”  [Jewish United Fund Of Metropolitan Chicago Vanguard Luncheon, 10/28/13]

     

    Hillary Clinton Said Her Dream Is A Hemispheric Common Market, With Open Trade And Open Markets.  “My dream is a hemispheric common market, with open trade and open borders, some time in the future with energy that is as green and sustainable as we can get it, powering growth and opportunity for every person in the hemisphere.” [05162013 Remarks to Banco Itau.doc, p. 28]

    * * *

    Here is the full email by Carrk as of January 25, 2016 laying out all the potentially delicate issues that the Clinton campaign would wish to avoid from emerging. One thing to note: as Michael Tracey points out, the Hillary campaign had all the transcripts at her disposal all along, despite repeated deflection.  Perhaps as a result of this leak she will now release the full transcripts for the "proper context."

    * * *

    From:tcarrk@hillaryclinton.com
    To: jpalmieri@hillaryclinton.com, john.podesta@gmail.com, slatham@hillaryclinton.com, kschake@hillaryclinton.com, creynolds@hillaryclinton.com, bfallon@hillaryclinton.com 
    Date: 2016-01-25 00:28 Subject:

    HRC Paid Speeches

    Team,

    Attached are the flags from HRC’s paid speeches we have from HWA. I put some highlights below. There is a lot of policy positions that we should give an extra scrub with Policy.

    In terms of what was opened to the press and what was not, the Washington Examiner got a hold of one of the private speech contracts (her speeches to universities were typically open press), so this is worth a read http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/clintons-speeches-are-cozy-for-wall-streeters-but-closed-to-journalists/article/2553294/section/author/dan-friedman

    CLINTON ADMITS SHE IS OUT OF TOUCH

    Hillary Clinton: “I'm Kind Of Far Removed” From The Struggles Of The Middle Class “Because The Life I've Lived And The Economic, You Know, Fortunes That My Husband And I Now Enjoy.” “And I am not taking a position on any policy, but I do think there is a growing sense of anxiety and even anger in the country over the feeling that the game is rigged.  And I never had that feeling when I was growing up.  Never. I mean, were there really rich people, of course there were.  My father loved to complain about big business and big government, but we had a solid middle class upbringing.  We had good public schools.  We had accessible health care.  We had our little, you know, one-family house that, you know, he saved up his money, didn't believe in mortgages.  So I lived that.  And now, obviously, I'm kind of far removed because the life I've lived and the economic, you know, fortunes that my husband and I now enjoy, but I haven't forgotten it.”  [Hillary Clinton Remarks at Goldman-Black Rock, 2/4/14]

    CLINTON SAYS YOU NEED TO HAVE A PRIVATE AND PUBLIC POSITION ON POLICY

    Clinton: “But If Everybody's Watching, You Know, All Of The Back Room Discussions And The Deals, You Know, Then People Get A Little Nervous, To Say The Least. So, You Need Both A Public And A Private Position.” CLINTON: You just have to sort of figure out how to — getting back to that word, "balance" — how to balance the public and the private efforts that are necessary to be successful, politically, and that's not just a comment about today. That, I think, has probably been true for all of our history, and if you saw the Spielberg movie, Lincoln, and how he was maneuvering and working to get the 13th Amendment passed, and he called one of my favorite predecessors, Secretary Seward, who had been the governor and senator from New York, ran against Lincoln for president, and he told Seward, I need your help to get this done. And Seward called some of his lobbyist friends who knew how to make a deal, and they just kept going at it. I mean, politics is like sausage being made. It is unsavory, and it always has been that way, but we usually end up where we need to be. But if everybody's watching, you know, all of the back room discussions and the deals, you know, then people get a little nervous, to say the least. So, you need both a public and a private position. And finally, I think — I believe in evidence-based decision making. I want to know what the facts are. I mean, it's like when you guys go into some kind of a deal, you know, are you going to do that development or not, are you going to do that renovation or not, you know, you look at the numbers. You try to figure out what's going to work and what's not going to work. [Clinton Speech For National Multi-Housing Council, 4/24/13]

    CLINTON TALKS ABOUT HOLDING WALL STREET ACCOUNTABLE ONLY FOR POLITICAL REASONS

    Clinton Said That The Blame Placed On The United States Banking System For The Crisis “Could Have Been Avoided In Terms Of Both Misunderstanding And Really Politicizing What Happened.” “That was one of the reasons that I started traveling in February of '09, so people could, you know, literally yell at me for the United States and our banking system causing this everywhere.  Now, that's an oversimplification we know, but it was the conventional wisdom. And I think that there's a lot that could have been avoided in terms of both misunderstanding and really politicizing what happened with greater transparency, with greater openness on all sides, you know, what happened, how did it happen, how do we prevent it from happening?  You guys help us figure it out and let's make sure that we do it right this time. And I think that everybody was desperately trying to fend off the worst effects institutionally, governmentally, and there just wasn't that opportunity to try to sort this out, and that came later.” [Goldman Sachs AIMS Alternative Investments Symposium, 10/24/13]

    * * *

    Clinton: “Even If It May Not Be 100 Percent True, If The Perception Is That Somehow The Game Is Rigged, That Should Be A Problem For All Of Us.” “Now, it's important to recognize the vital role that the financial markets play in our economy and that so many of you are contributing to.  To function effectively those markets and the men and women who shape them have to command trust and confidence, because we all rely on the market's transparency and integrity. So even if it may not be 100 percent true, if the perception is that somehow the game is rigged, that should be a problem for all of us, and we have to be willing to make that absolutely clear.  And if there are issues, if there's wrongdoing, people have to be held accountable and we have to try to deter future bad behavior, because the public trust is at the core of both a free market economy and a democracy.” [Clinton Remarks to Deutsche Bank, 10/7/14]

    CLINTON SUGGESTS WALL STREET INSIDERS ARE WHAT IS NEEDED TO FIX WALL STREET

    Clinton Said Financial Reform “Really Has To Come From The Industry Itself.” “Remember what Teddy Roosevelt did.  Yes, he took on what he saw as the excesses in the economy, but he also stood against the excesses in politics.  He didn't want to unleash a lot of nationalist, populistic reaction.  He wanted to try to figure out how to get back into that balance that has served America so well over our entire nationhood. Today, there's more that can and should be done that really has to come from the industry itself, and how we can strengthen our economy, create more jobs at a time where that's increasingly challenging, to get back to Teddy Roosevelt's square deal.  And I really believe that our country and all of you are up to that job.” [Clinton Remarks to Deutsche Bank, 10/7/14]

    * * *

    Speaking About The Importance Of Proper Regulation, Clinton Said “The People That Know The Industry Better Than Anybody Are The People Who Work In The Industry.” “I mean, it's still happening, as you know.  People are looking back and trying to, you know, get compensation for bad mortgages and all the rest of it in some of the agreements that are being reached. There's nothing magic about regulations, too much is bad, too little is bad.  How do you get to the golden key, how do we figure out what works?  And the people that know the industry better than anybody are the people who work in the industry. And I think there has to be a recognition that, you know, there's so much at stake now, I mean, the business has changed so much and decisions are made so quickly, in nano seconds basically.  We spend trillions of dollars to travel around the world, but it's in everybody's interest that we have a better framework, and not just for the United States but for the entire world, in which to operate and trade.” [Goldman Sachs AIMS Alternative Investments Symposium, 10/24/13]

    CLINTON ADMITS NEEDING WALL STREET FUNDING

    Clinton Said That Because Candidates Needed Money From Wall Street To Run For Office, People In New York Needed To Ask Tough Questions About The Economy Before Handing Over Campaign Contributions. “Secondly, running for office in our country takes a lot of money, and candidates have to go out and raise it.  New York is probably the leading site for contributions for fundraising for candidates on both sides of the aisle, and it's also our economic center. And there are a lot of people here who should ask some tough questions before handing over campaign contributions to people who were really playing chicken with our whole economy.” [Goldman Sachs AIMS Alternative Investments Symposium, 10/24/13]

    * * *

    Clinton: “It Would Be Very Difficult To Run For President Without Raising A Huge Amount Of Money And Without Having Other People Supporting You Because Your Opponent Will Have Their Supporters.” “So our system is, in many ways, more difficult, certainly far more expensive and much longer than a parliamentary system, and I really admire the people who subject themselves to it.  Even when I, you know, think they should not be elected president, I still think, well, you know, good for you I guess, you're out there promoting democracy and those crazy ideas of yours. So I think that it's something — I would like — you know, obviously as somebody who has been through it, I would like it not to last as long because I think it's very distracting from what we should be doing every day in our public business.  I would like it not to be so expensive.  I have no idea how you do that. I mean, in my campaign — I lose track, but I think I raised $250 million or some such enormous amount, and in the last campaign President Obama raised 1.1 billion, and that was before the Super PACs and all of this other money just rushing in, and it's so ridiculous that we have this kind of free for all with all of this financial interest at stake, but, you know, the Supreme Court said that's basically what we're in for.  So we're kind of in the wild west, and, you know, it would be very difficult to run for president without raising a huge amount of money and without having other people supporting you because your opponent will have their supporters.  So I think as hard as it was when I ran, I think it's even harder now.” [Clinton Speech For General Electric’s Global Leadership Meeting – Boca Raton, FL, 1/6/14]

     

    CLINTON TOUTS HER RELATIONSHIP TO WALL STREET AS A SENATOR

    Clinton: As Senator, “I Represented And Worked With” So Many On Wall Street And “Did All I Could To Make Sure They Continued To Prosper” But Still Called For Closing Carried Interest Loophole. In remarks at Robbins, Gellar, Rudman & Dowd in San Diego, Hillary Clinton said, “When I was a Senator from New York, I represented and worked with so many talented principled people who made their living in finance.  But even thought I represented them and did all I could to make sure they continued to prosper, I called for closing the carried interest loophole and addressing skyrocketing CEO pay. I also was calling in '06, '07 for doing something about the mortgage crisis, because I saw every day from Wall Street literally to main streets across New York how a well-functioning financial system is essential. So when I raised early warnings about early warnings about subprime mortgages and called for regulating derivatives and over complex financial products, I didn't get some big arguments, because people sort of said, no, that makes sense.  But boy, have we had fights about it ever since.” [Hillary Clinton’s Remarks at Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd in San Diego, 9/04/14]

    * * *

    Clinton On Wall Street: “I Had Great Relations And Worked So Close Together After 9/11 To Rebuild Downtown, And A Lot Of Respect For The Work You Do And The People Who Do It.” “Now, without going over how we got to where we are right now, what would be your advice to the Wall Street community and the big banks as to the way forward with those two important decisions? SECRETARY CLINTON:  Well, I represented all of you for eight years.  I had great relations and worked so close together after 9/11 to rebuild downtown, and a lot of respect for the work you do and the people who do it, but I do — I think that when we talk about the regulators and the politicians, the economic consequences of bad decisions back in '08, you know, were devastating, and they had repercussions throughout the world.” [Goldman Sachs AIMS Alternative Investments Symposium, 10/24/13]

     

    CLINTON TALKS ABOUT THE CHALLENGES RUNNING FOR OFFICE

    Hillary Clinton Said There Was “A Bias Against People Who Have Led Successful And/Or Complicated Lives,” Citing The Need To Divese Of Assets, Positions, And Stocks.   “SECRETARY CLINTON:  Yeah.  Well, you know what Bob Rubin said about that.  He said, you know, when he came to Washington, he had a fortune.  And when he left Washington, he had a small —              MR. BLANKFEIN:  That’s how you have a small fortune, is you go to Washington. SECRETARY CLINTON:  You go to Washington.  Right.              But, you know, part of the problem with the political situation, too, is that there is such a bias against people who have led successful and/or complicated lives.  You know, the divestment of assets, the stripping of all kinds of positions, the sale of stocks.  It just becomes very onerous and unnecessary.” [Goldman Sachs Builders And Innovators Summit, 10/29/13]

    CLINTON SUGGESTS SHE IS A MODERATE

    Clinton Said That Both The Democratic And Republican Parties Should Be “Moderate.” “URSULA BURNS:  Interesting.  Democrats? SECRETARY CLINTON:  Oh, long, definitely. URSULA BURNS:  Republicans? SECRETARY CLINTON:  Unfortunately, at the time, short. URSULA BURNS:  Okay.  We'll go back to questions. SECRETARY CLINTON:  We need two parties. URSULA BURNS:  Yeah, we do need two parties. SECRETARY CLINTON:  Two sensible, moderate, pragmatic parties.” [Hillary Clinton Remarks, Remarks at Xerox, 3/18/14]

    * * *

    Clinton: “Simpson-Bowles… Put Forth The Right Framework. Namely, We Have To Restrain Spending, We Have To Have Adequate Revenues, And We Have To Incentivize Growth. It's A Three-Part Formula… And They Reached An Agreement. But What Is Very Hard To Do Is To Then Take That Agreement If You Don't Believe That You're Going To Be Able To Move The Other Side.” SECRETARY CLINTON:  Well, this may be borne more out of hope than experience in the last few years. But Simpson-Bowles — and I know you heard from Erskine earlier today — put forth the right framework. Namely, we have to restrain spending, we have to have adequate revenues, and we have to incentivize growth. It's a three-part formula.  The specifics can be negotiated depending upon whether we're acting in good faith or not. And what Senator Simpson and Erskine did was to bring Republicans and Democrats alike to the table, and you had the full range of ideological views from I think Tom Coburn to Dick Durbin.  And they reached an agreement. But what is very hard to do is to then take that agreement if you don't believe that you're going to be able to move the other side.  And where we are now is in this gridlocked dysfunction. So you've got Democrats saying that, you know, you have to have more revenues; that's the sine qua non of any kind of agreement.  You have Republicans saying no, no, no on revenues; you have to cut much more deeply into spending. Well, looks what's happened.  We are slowly returning to growth.  It's not as much or as fast as many of us would like to see, but, you know, we're certainly better off than our European friends, and we're beginning to, I believe, kind of come out of the long aftermath of the '08 crisis. [Clinton Speech For Morgan Stanley, 4/18/13]

    * * *

    Clinton: “The Simpson-Bowles Framework And The Big Elements Of It Were Right… You Have To Restrain Spending, You Have To Have Adequate Revenues, And You Have To Have Growth.” CLINTON: So, you know, the Simpson-Bowles framework and the big elements of it were right.  The specifics can be negotiated and argued over.  But you got to do all three.  You have to restrain spending, you have to have adequate revenues, and you have to have growth.  And I think we are smart enough to figure out how to do that. [Clinton Speech For Morgan Stanley, 4/18/13]

    CLINTON IS AWARE OF SECURITY CONCERNS AROUND BLACKBERRIES

    Clinton: “At The State Department We Were Attacked Every Hour, More Than Once An Hour By Incoming Efforts To Penetrate Everything We Had.  And That Was True Across The U.S. Government.” CLINTON: But, at the State Department we were attacked every hour, more than once an hour by incoming efforts to penetrate everything we had.  And that was true across the U.S. government.  And we knew it was going on when I would go to China, or I would go to Russia, we would leave all of our electronic equipment on the plane, with the batteries out, because this is a new frontier.  And they're trying to find out not just about what we do in our government.  They're trying to find out about what a lot of companies do and they were going after the personal emails of people who worked in the State Department. So it's not like the only government in the world that is doing anything is the United States.  But, the United States compared to a number of our competitors is the only government in the world with any kind of safeguards, any kind of checks and balances.  They may in many respects need to be strengthened and people need to be reassured, and they need to have their protections embodied in law.  But, I think turning over a lot of that material intentionally or unintentionally, because of the way it can be drained, gave all kinds of information not only to big countries, but to networks and terrorist groups, and the like. So I have a hard time thinking that somebody who is a champion of privacy and liberty has taken refuge in Russia under Putin's authority.  And then he calls into a Putin talk show and says, President Putin, do you spy on people?  And President Putin says, well, from one intelligence professional to another, of course not.  Oh, thank you so much.  I mean, really, I don't know.  I have a hard time following it. [Clinton Speech At UConn, 4/23/14]

    * * *

    Hillary Clinton: “When I Got To The State Department, It Was Still Against The Rules To Let Most — Or Let All Foreign Service Officers Have Access To A Blackberry.” “I mean, let's face it, our government is woefully, woefully behind in all of its policies that affect the use of technology.  When I got to the State Department, it was still against the rules to let most — or let all Foreign Service Officers have access to a Blackberry.  You couldn't have desktop computers when Colin Powell was there.  Everything that you are taking advantage of, inventing and using, is still a generation or two behind when it comes to our government.” [Hillary Clinton Remarks at Nexenta, 8/28/14]

    * * *

    Hillary Clinton: “We Couldn't Take Our Computers, We Couldn't Take Our Personal Devices” Off The Plane In China And Russia. “I mean, probably the most frustrating part of this whole debate are countries acting like we're the only people in the world trying to figure out what's going on.  I mean, every time I went to countries like China or Russia, I mean, we couldn't take our computers, we couldn't take our personal devices, we couldn't take anything off the plane because they're so good, they would penetrate them in a minute, less, a nanosecond.  So we would take the batteries out, we'd leave them on the plane.” [Hillary Clinton Remarks at Nexenta, 8/28/14]

    * * *

    Clinton Said When She Got To State, Employees “Were Not Mostly Permitted To Have Handheld Devices.” “You know, when Colin Powell showed up as Secretary of State in 2001, most State Department employees still didn't even have computers on their desks.  When I got there they were not mostly permitted to have handheld devices.  I mean, so you're thinking how do we operate in this new environment dominated by technology, globalizing forces?  We have to change, and I can't expect people to change if I don't try to model it and lead it.” [Clinton Speech For General Electric’s Global Leadership Meeting – Boca Raton, FL, 1/6/14]

    * * *

    Hillary Clinton Said You Know You Can’t Bring Your Phone And Computer When Traveling To China And Russia And She Had To Take Her Batteries Out And Put them In A Special Box. “And anybody who has ever traveled in other countries, some of which shall remain nameless, except for Russia and China, you know that you can’t bring your phones and your computers.  And if you do, good luck.  I mean, we would not only take the batteries out, we would leave the batteries and the devices on the plane in special boxes.  Now, we didn’t do that because we thought it would be fun to tell somebody about.  We did it because we knew that we were all targets and that we would be totally vulnerable. So it’s not only what others do to us and what we do to them and how many people are involved in it.  It’s what’s the purpose of it, what is being collected, and how can it be used.  And there are clearly people in this room who know a lot about this, and some of you could be very useful contributors to that conversation because you’re sophisticated enough to know that it’s not just, do it, don’t do it.  We have to have a way of doing it, and then we have to have a way of analyzing it, and then we have to have a way of sharing it.” [Goldman Sachs Builders And Innovators Summit, 10/29/13]

    * * *

    Hillary Clinton Lamented How Far Behind The State Department Was In Technology, Saying “People Were Not Even Allowed To Use Mobile Devices Because Of Security Issues.”  “Personally, having, you know, lived and worked in the White House, having been a senator, having been Secretary of State, there has traditionally been a great pool of very talented, hard-working people.  And just as I was saying about the credit market, our personnel policies haven’t kept up with the changes necessary in government.  We have a lot of difficulties in getting—when I got to the State Department, we were so far behind in technology, it was embarrassing.  And, you know, people were not even allowed to use mobile devices because of security issues and cost issues, and we really had to try to push into the last part of the 20th Century in order to get people functioning in 2009 and ‘10.” [Goldman Sachs Builders And Innovators Summit, 10/29/13]

     

    CLINTON REMARKS ARE PRO KEYSTONE AND PRO TRADE

    Clinton: “So I Think That Keystone Is A Contentious Issue, And Of Course It Is Important On Both Sides Of The Border For Different And Sometimes Opposing Reasons…” “So I think that Keystone is a contentious issue, and of course it is important on both sides of the border for different and sometimes opposing reasons, but that is not our relationship.  And I think our relationship will get deeper and stronger and put us in a position to really be global leaders in energy and climate change if we worked more closely together.  And that's what I would like to see us do.” [Remarks at tinePublic, 6/18/14]

    * * *

    Hillary Clinton Said Her Dream Is A Hemispheric Common Market, With Open Trade And Open Markets. “My dream is a hemispheric common market, with open trade and open borders, some time in the future with energy that is as green and sustainable as we can get it, powering growth and opportunity for every person in the hemisphere.”  [05162013 Remarks to Banco Itau.doc, p. 28]

    * * *

    Hillary Clinton Said We Have To Have A Concerted Plan To Increase Trade; We Have To Resist Protectionism And Other Kinds Of Barriers To Trade. “Secondly, I think we have to have a concerted plan to increase trade already under the current circumstances, you know, that Inter-American Development Bank figure is pretty surprising. There is so much more we can do, there is a lot of low hanging fruit but businesses on both sides have to make it a priority and it's not  for governments to do but governments can either make it easy or make it hard and we have to resist, protectionism, other kinds of barriers to market access and to trade and I would like to see this get much more attention and be not just a policy for a year under president X or president Y but a consistent one.” [05162013 Remarks to Banco Itau.doc, p. 32]

     

    CLINTON IS MORE FAVORABLE TO CANADIAN HEALTH CARE AND SINGLE PAYER

    Clinton Said Single-Payer Health Care Systems “Can Get Costs Down,” And “Is As Good Or Better On Primary Care,” But “They Do Impose Things Like Waiting Times.” “If you look at countries that are comparable, like Switzerland or Germany, for example, they have mixed systems.  They don't have just a single-payer system, but they have very clear controls over budgeting and  accountability. If you look at the single-payer systems, like Scandinavia, Canada, and elsewhere, they can get costs down because, you know, although their care, according to statistics, overall is as good or better on primary care, in particular, they do impose things like waiting times, you know.  It takes longer to get like a hip replacement than it might take here.” [Hillary Clinton remarks to ECGR Grand Rapids, 6/17/13]

    * * *

    Clinton Cited President Johnson’s Success In Establishing Medicare And Medicaid And Said She Wanted To See The U.S. Have Universal Health Care Like In Canada. “You know, on healthcare we are the prisoner of our past.  The way we got to develop any kind of medical insurance program was during World War II when companies facing shortages of workers began to offer healthcare benefits as an inducement for employment.  So from the early 1940s healthcare was seen as a privilege connected to employment.  And after the war when soldiers came back and went back into the market there was a lot of competition, because the economy was so heated up. So that model continued.  And then of course our large labor unions bargained for healthcare with the employers that their members worked for.  So from the early 1940s until the early 1960s we did not have any Medicare, or our program for the poor called Medicaid until President Johnson was able to get both passed in 1965. So the employer model continued as the primary means by which working people got health insurance.  People over 65 were eligible for Medicare.  Medicaid, which was a partnership, a funding partnership between the federal government and state governments, provided some, but by no means all poor people with access to healthcare. So what we've been struggling with certainly Harry Truman, then Johnson was successful on Medicare and Medicaid, but didn't touch the employer based system, then actually Richard Nixon made a proposal that didn't go anywhere, but was quite far reaching.  Then with my husband's administration we worked very hard to come up with a system, but we were very much constricted by the political realities that if you had your insurance from your employer you were reluctant to try anything else.  And so we were trying to build a universal system around the employer-based system. And indeed now with President Obama's legislative success in getting the Affordable Care Act passed that is what we've done.  We still have primarily an employer-based system, but we now have people able to get subsidized insurance.  So we have health insurance companies playing a major role in the provision of healthcare, both to the employed whose employers provide health insurance, and to those who are working but on their own are not able to afford it and their employers either don't provide it, or don't provide it at an affordable price. We are still struggling.  We've made a lot of progress.  Ten million Americans now have insurance who didn't have it before the Affordable Care Act, and that is a great step forward.  (Applause.) And what we're going to have to continue to do is monitor what the costs are and watch closely to see whether employers drop more people from insurance so that they go into what we call the health exchange system.  So we're really just at the beginning.  But we do have Medicare for people over 65.  And you couldn't, I don't think, take it away if you tried, because people are very satisfied with it, but we also have a lot of political and financial resistance to expanding that system to more people. So we're in a learning period as we move forward with the implementation of the Affordable Care Act.  And I'm hoping that whatever the shortfalls or the glitches have been, which in a big piece of legislation you're going to have, those will be remedied and we can really take a hard look at what's succeeding, fix what isn't, and keep moving forward to get to affordable universal healthcare coverage like you have here in Canada.  [Clinton Speech For tinePublic – Saskatoon, CA, 1/21/15]

     

    * * *

    Below is the full 80 page documents of "speech flags" in Hillary speeches:

     

  • Trump Apologizes For "Locker Room Banter" After Recording Emerges Of "Extremely Lewd" Conversation About Women

    One can tell it's the Friday night before a Sunday presidential debate when…

    First, the FBI releases 350 previously-deleted emails from Hillary Clinton's private server that she had failed to hand over to State. As Politico reports,

    The first major batch of Hillary Clinton emails recovered by the FBI during its probe of her private email server went public Friday, including a message where one of her top political advisers floated the idea of her running for vice president in 2012.

     

    “Only way for [President Barack Obama] to win second term is to ask you to be VP – he will realize that after midterms,” wrote Mark Penn, a pollster and chief strategist on her unsuccessful 2008 presidential bid.

     

    Friday's release of previously unseen Clinton emails prompted another round of heartburn for Clinton's presidential campaign and anticipation on the part of Republican critics hoping for an October surprise.

     

    However, the release proved to be something of a snoozer since many of the messages scheduled for release are already in the public domain in some form.

    Then Wikileaks unleashes a fresh batch of Podesta-related hacked emails, refreshing the world's memory of the 'pay-for-play' allegations surrounding Russia, Iran, China, and Uranium One.

    Today WikiLeaks begins its series on deals involving Hillary Clinton campaign Chairman John Podesta. Mr Podesta is a long-term associate of the Clintons and was President Bill Clinton's Chief of Staff from 1998 until 2001. Mr Podesta also controls the Podesta Group, a major lobbying firm and is the Chair of the Center for American Progress (CAP), a Washington DC-based think tank.

     

    In April 2015 the New York Times published a story about a company called "Uranium One" which was sold to Russian government-controlled interests, giving Russia effective control of one-fifth of all uranium production capacity in the United States. Since uranium is considered a strategic asset, with implications for the production of nuclear weapons, the deal had to be approved by a committee composed of representatives from a number of US government agencies. Among the agencies that eventually signed off the deal was the State Department, then headed by Secretary Clinton. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) comprises, among others, the secretaries of the Treasury, Defense, Homeland Security, Commerce and Energy.

     

    As Russian interests gradually took control of Uranium One millions of dollars were donated to the Clinton Foundation between 2009 and 2013 from individuals directly connected to the deal including the Chairman of Uranium One, Ian Telfer. Although Mrs Clinton had an agreement with the Obama White House to publicly identify all donors to the Clinton Foundation, the contributions from the Chairman of Uranium One were not publicly disclosed by the Clintons.

     

    When the New York Times article was published the Clinton campaign spokesman, Brian Fallon, strongly rejected the possibility that then-Secretary Clinton exerted any influence in the US goverment's review of the sale of Uranium One, describing this possibility as "baseless".

    But, finally, and what everyone will be talking about, is the release by The Washington Post of Donald Trump having an "extremely lewd conversation about women in 2005."

     Donald Trump bragged in vulgar terms about kissing, groping and trying to have sex with women during a 2005 conversation caught on a hot microphone — saying that “when you’re a star, they let you do it” — according to a video obtained by The Washington Post.

     

    The video captures Trump talking with Billy Bush of “Access Hollywood” on a bus with Access Hollywood written across the side. They were arriving on the set of “Days of Our Lives” to tape a segment about Trump’s upcoming cameo on the soap opera.

     

     

    In the leaked audio, apparently recorded while Trump was on a bus with former Access Hollywood host Billy Bush, Trump talks about trying — and failing — to have sex with an unnamed woman. He had been married to his wife Melania for a few months at the time of the conversation. 

     

    “I did try and fuck her. She was married,” Trump says, according to the audio published by the Post.

     

    “And I moved on her very heavily," he says. "In fact, I took her out furniture shopping. She wanted to get some furniture. I said, ‘I’ll show you where they have some nice furniture.’ ”

     

    “I moved on her like a bitch, but I couldn’t get there. And she was married,” Trump says. “Then all of a sudden I see her, she’s now got the big phony tits and everything. She’s totally changed her look.”

     

    At another point in the recording, Trump is heard saying that "when you're a star," women let you "do anything."

     

    “Grab them by the pussy,” he says.

    The Clinton campaign wasted no time, responding to the 'lewd' Trump comments:

    "This is horrific we cannot allow this man to be President."

    Trump apologized in a statement…

    “This was locker room banter, a private conversation that took place many years ago…"

     

    "[Former President] Bill Clinton has said far worse to me on the golf course – not even close," Trump added.

     

    "I apologize if anyone was offended."

    So one hand a presidential candidate with a recidivist, cheating husband, on the other a married man who admits he wanted to have sex with a woman in a private setting.

    Having said that, let's leave the real debate to Twitter. These seemed to sum things up perfectly…

    Lizzy @lizzie363
    Trump talks like Bill Clinton acts but we are suppossed too condemn ones speech but overlook the others actions. #botharehorrific.

     

    Louis Winthorpe III @LWinthorpe
    So we find out Trump talks like more than half the guys you know. That's supposed to make me think he's now less electable, not more?

    One thing is certain, family values arent the winner here.

  • Black Swans: 9 Recent Events That Changed Finance Forever

    Almost every market participant out there has at least one horrific war story on a crash that profoundly affected their portfolio or world view.

    For example, one unnamed stock broker I know had himself and his clients in a soaring gold stock called Bre-X in 1997. There was way less connectivity at this time, and this person was on a trip to Vegas for some sun and fun. Staying at Caesar’s Palace, he went out for a short while as the stock was trading near its highs of $286.50 per share.

    When he got back to the hotel, he found out that news had already spread quickly: during a due diligence test, mining company Freeport had twinned seven drill holes, finding not even a trace of economic gold. The deposit was not real, and panic swept the market. His hotel phone had been ringing off the hook for three hours but he missed all the calls. Shares plummeted 83% that day, but he was already too late to get out of the stock.

    It’s easy to rationalize the series of events that led to the fall of Bre-X in hindsight, but as Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardin notes, at the time many traders and experts like this broker were caught by surprise. A company worth around $4.5 billion basically went to zero almost overnight as its claim of 70 million ounces of gold vanished into thin air. That’s a “black swan”, and this one in particular changed the mining and finance industries forever.

    BLACK SWANS: 9 RECENT EVENTS THAT CHANGED FINANCE FOREVER

    The following infographic comes to us from Call Levels, and it highlights nine other recent “black swan” events that will have a lasting impact on how investors approach markets. These events range from the Asian financial crisis of 1997 to the more recent Brexit panic that occurred in June 2016.

    Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

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Today’s News 7th October 2016

  • How To Solve The Migrant Crisis (In 2 'Easy' Steps)

    Submitted by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

    Nick Giambruno: The migrant crisis is tearing Europe apart. What’s your take Doug?

    Doug Casey: I'm all for immigration and completely open borders to enable opportunity seekers from anyplace to move anyplace else.

    With two big, critically important, caveats:

    1) there can be no welfare or free government services, so everyone has to pay his own way, and no freeloaders are attracted; and

     

    2) all property is privately owned, to minimize the possibility of squatter camps full of beggars.

    In the absence of welfare benefits, immigrants are usually the best of people because you get mobile, aggressive, and opportunity-seeking people that want to leave a dead old culture for a vibrant new one. The millions of immigrants who came to the U.S. in the late 19th and early 20th centuries had zero in the way of state support.

    But what is going on in Europe today is entirely different. The migrants coming to Europe aren’t being attracted by opportunity in the new land so much as the welfare benefits and the soft life. For the most part they are unskilled and poorly educated.

    What we’re talking about here is the migration of millions of people of different language, different race, different religion, different culture, different mode of living. If you're an alien and you're 1 out of 10,000, or 1,000, or 100, you're a curiosity, an interesting outsider. But an influx of millions of migrants is only going to destroy the old culture, and guarantee antagonism—especially when the locals have to pay for it. In many ways, what’s happening now isn’t just comparable to what happened 2,000 years ago with the migration of the Germanic northern barbarians into the Roman Empire. It’s potentially much more serious.

    Nick Giambruno: I think pretty much anywhere in the world, whenever there’s an influx of foreigners to the degree that it changes the demographics or upsets the local economic applecart, it’s obviously going to cause problems.

    For example, the Chinese are wearing out their welcome in many parts of Africa.

    We saw this ourselves when we went to Zimbabwe earlier this year. Their numbers have grown so much that there are numerous Chinese mini cities within Zim.

    Many people in Zim aren’t too happy with the Chinese dumping cheap products and upsetting the local economy. When we asked our driver to take us through a rough neighborhood, all we saw was a seemingly endless market, as far as I can tell, completely filled with Chinese products.

    Doug Casey: Incidentally, it’s supposed to be official Chinese policy to migrate about 300 million Chinese to Africa in the years to come. They’re employed in building roads, mines, railroads, and other infrastructure. The Africans like the goodies, but don’t like the Chinese. It has the makings of a race war a generation or so in the future.

    Nick Giambruno: Getting back to the crisis in Europe…

    It’s well known the gigantic bureaucracy in Brussels produces ridiculous regulations and dictates. The EU has reduced the standard of living of the average European.

    Of course this is related to the migrant issue too. The EU has a quota system which is supposed to distribute migrants across the union. Not all EU countries are happy with this.

    For example, Hungary doesn’t believe it should have to accept any migrants if it doesn’t want to. Brussels disagrees and says Hungary is obligated to take in its “fair share” of migrants.

    Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban recently said:

    “Hungary does not need a single migrant for the economy to work, or the population to sustain itself, or for the country to have a future…

    …This is why there is no need for a common European migration policy – whoever needs migrants can take them, but don't force them on us, we don't need them…

    …For us migration is not a solution but a problem… not medicine but a poison, we don't need it and won't swallow it.”

    The Eurocrats are furious with Orban. Luxembourg has called for Hungary to be expelled from the EU.

    It’s clear the migrant issue is fueling resentment to the EU. It was a major factor in the Brexit vote. The unprecedented inflow of migrants has also helped anti-EU political parties grow in popularity.

    This whole mess looks to me to be a self-inflicted wound. What do you think?

    Doug Casey: The EU is a huge aggravating factor with the migrant problem. Brussels is full of globalists and doctrinaire socialists who not only promote bad policies, but make the whole continent pay for the mistakes of its most misguided members.

    All Western European governments are massive welfare states that provide free food, housing, medical care, schooling, and living expenses for citizens. And even for residents who aren’t citizens. Benefits like these will naturally draw in poor people from poor countries.

    Millions of Africans will want to emigrate, especially to the homelands of their ex-colonial masters in Europe. The colonizers are now themselves being colonized. If I was an African from south of the Sahara, I'd absolutely try to get to Italy or Greece or France or Spain or on my way to Sweden to cash in on the largesse of these stupid Europeans.

    I’m a fan of what’s left of Western Civilization. I hate to see it washed away. But that’s what will happen if the floodgate is opened.

    Nick Giambruno: I really don’t feel that sorry for the Europeans either. They largely brought this mess upon themselves.

    It’s no coincidence that migrants are flowing to the countries with the most generous welfare benefits. If there weren’t so many freebies in these countries, there wouldn’t be so many migrants showing up to collect them.

    It’s obvious the welfare state plays a major role in this crisis.

    It’s also obvious that idiotic military interventions are a major factor.

    The Europeans were and are enthusiastic supporters of the U.S. military interventions in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan—and perhaps most consequentially for them—Libya.

    Before his overthrow by NATO, Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi had an agreement with Italy, which is directly to Libya’s north, across the Mediterranean Sea.

    Gaddafi agreed to prevent migrants heading for Europe from using Libya’s 1,100 miles of coastline as a transit point. It was an arrangement that worked.

    So it’s no shocker that when NATO helped overthrow the Gaddafi government in 2011, the migrant floodgates opened.

    Doug Casey: Unless the Europeans get in front of this situation, it’s not just some refugees from the Near East they’ll have to deal with. Especially with the economic chaos of The Greater Depression, it’s going to be millions from Africa, and then perhaps millions more from Central Asia, and even India and Bangladesh. The world is becoming a very small place. What will happen when scores of thousands of migrants set up a squatter camp someplace—with no food, shelter, or sanitary facilities. The situation is likely to be most stressful…

    Some will say, “But you have to be charitable, you can’t just let them starve because they’ve had some bad luck.” To that I’d say an individual, or a family, can have some bad luck. But the places these people come from have had “bad luck” for centuries. Their bad luck is the consequence of their political, economic, and social systems. It makes no sense, it’s idiotic, to import—at huge expense—masses of people that have a culture of “bad luck.”

    At the most, if someone wants to help them, they should help them with their own money.

    Nick Giambruno: Then there are the so-called economists and think tanks that say bringing in a bunch of migrants will “stimulate” the economy…

    Doug Casey: There are hundreds of think tanks in the U.S. alone, most located within the Washington Beltway who appear to believe that. They’re populated by partisan academics, ex-politicos, retired generals, and others circulating through the revolving doors of the military/industrial/political/academic complex. They’re really just propaganda outlets, funded by foundations and donors who want to give an intellectual patina to their views.

    Think tanks, and their cousins, the lobbyists and the NGOs, are mostly what I like to call Running Dogs, who act as a support system for the Top Dogs in the Deep State. Their product is “policy recommendations,” which influence how much tax you have to pay and how many new regulations you have to obey. Think tanks are populated almost exclusively by what have been called “useless mouths.” They’re no friends of the common man.

    The migration policies they’re promoting are creating chaos.

    Nick Giambruno: I just spent weeks on the ground in Italy, a frontline state in the migrant crisis. I was investigating the upcoming referendum and how it could be the first domino to fall in the collapse of the EU.

    I can say for sure that the migrant issue is one of the largest on the mind of the average Italian voter.

    Each day on average, a couple thousand migrants—sometimes many more—arrive in Italy. They’re mostly from Sub-Saharan Africa, but also a large number are from the Indian subcontinent.

    While I was in Rome I saw many. Lots of them aggressively beg and hawk trinkets. People now lock their doors to their homes when before they might not have.

    I witnessed, a number of times, young male migrants sitting in the handicap spot on trams, buses, and other public transportation, refusing to give up their seats for elderly Italian women.

    It’s anecdotal, but it's hard to think of a way to wear out your welcome faster than for regular Italians to see an elderly woman have to struggle to stand on a bus while a migrant, perfectly capable of standing, comfortably sits.

    While at the Milan train station I witnessed migrants shoving aside a clerk at the ticket check to forcibly board a train. I could see the look on the faces of the other Italian passengers. They were dumbfounded at how the migrants were blatantly choosing to not live by the rules of society and nobody was doing anything about it.

    Then in Como—one of the swankiest places in Italy and where George Clooney maintains a residence—I saw how many hundreds of migrants have turned the train station into a filthy makeshift camp. It was a bizarre blend of extreme poverty and extreme wealth.

    To say Italians are fed up is a gross understatement.

    Most feel Italy has enough problems without trying to solve the problems of the world. They wonder why they are forced to subsidize the migrants—who receive over $80 a month from the state, far more than their annual income in their home countries—while they are suffering under extreme economic hardship.

    Italians largely blame the EU and pro-EU politicians for this mess.

    So Doug, what should be done about this mess that doesn’t, at the same time, feed the growth of the State?

    Doug Casey: Immigration across political borders doesn't have to be a problem. It’s simply a matter of maintaining the property rights of all concerned.

    Let me repeat, and re-emphasize, what I said earlier. The free-market solution to the migrant situation is quite simple. If all the property of a country is privately owned, anyone can come and stay as long as he can pay for his accommodations. When even the streets and parks are privately owned, trespassers, beggars, squatters, migrants, vagrants, and the like have a problem. A country with 100% private property, and zero welfare, would only attract people who like those conditions. And they’d undoubtedly be welcome as individuals. But “migration” would be impossible.

    So, again, I'm all for open borders. Anybody should be able to go anywhere if they can support themselves. In a free market society, however, nobody's going to give you money just for existing. You have to produce goods and services in order to be able to buy food, shelter, and clothing.

    This is how the migration problem could be solved. You don't need the government. You don't need the army. You don't need visas or quotas. You don't need laws. You don't need treaties to solve the migration problem. All you need is privately owned property and the lack of welfare benefits.

    Nick Giambruno: I agree, but I doubt that is going to happen anytime soon, except in our dreams. What do you think are some likely outcomes?

    Doug Casey: Well, I agree; they’ll come up with some cockamamie political solution. But the good news is that it will speed up the disintegration of the EU. It never made sense from the beginning to try to get Swedes to live by the same rules as Sicilians, or Germans by the same rules as Portuguese. Not to mention that the rules are entirely arbitrary. Worse, almost all the rules result in economic transfers, with legislated winners and losers. Deals like that always lead to resentment, among both the winners and the losers.

    The euro, meanwhile, will approach its intrinsic value at an accelerating rate and eventually cease to exist. The Esperanto currency was doomed from the beginning. It was not just an “IOU nothing,” like the U.S. dollar, but a “Who owes you nothing” since it’s not even backed by a specific government’s taxing power.

    My prediction that the Continent will one day just be a giant petting zoo for the Chinese is intact—assuming the current wave of migrants approve.

    On the bright side, the collapse of the EU will accelerate the disintegration of nation-states everywhere. There are about 200 nation-states in the world. The international “elite,” the “intelligentsia,” the members of the Deep State everywhere, and organizations like the EU in Brussels, would like to see a much smaller number of more powerful states. Orwell anticipated just three mega-states in his dystopia, 1984. But the actual trend is in the opposite direction.

    It’s not just the UK seceding from the EU, but Scotland from the UK. The Basques and Catalans may eventually secede from Spain. Belgium, a totally artificial country, will eventually break up into Flemish-speaking Flanders and French-speaking Wallonia. France has half a dozen secession movements. Italy was only unified into its present form from scores of principalities, duchies, and baronies in 1861. It was the same with Germany until Bismarck in 1871. The break-up of the USSR in 1990 into 13 smaller states was a good start, but Russia itself is a small empire with dozens of distinct ethnic and linguistic groups. You will rarely hear about this in the mass media, but there are dozens of secession movements throughout Europe.

    There will be an exodus of capital and people from Europe to parts of Latin America, plus to the U.S., Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. This is, obviously, bad for Europe and good for the recipient countries, since the emigrants will be educated and affluent. In recent years, I might not have included Latin America, but things have changed. Argentina and Colombia are liberalizing economically. The continent isn’t involved in any entangling alliances, isn’t on the migration highway, and has low costs. Why a wealthy European would stay in that stagnant and unstable continent when he could live better, and mostly tax-free, at a fraction of the cost in Argentina is a mystery to me. If I was a European, I would be leaving Europe at this point.

  • Paul Craig Roberts Rages "Washington Is Leading The World To War"

    Authored by Paul Criag Roberts,

    What must the world think watching the US presidential campaign? Over time US political campaigns have become more unreal and less related to voters’ concerns, but the current one is so unreal as to be absurd.

    The offshoring of American jobs by global corporations and the deregulation of the US financial system have resulted in American economic failure. One might think that this would be an issue in a presidential campaign.

    The neoconservative ideology of US world hegemony is driving the US and its vassals into conflict with Russia and China. The risks of nuclear war are higher than at any previous time in history. One might think that this also would be an issue in a presidential campaign.

    Instead, the issues are Trump’s legal use of tax laws and his non-hostile attitude toward President Putin of Russia.

    One might think that the issue would be Hillary’s extremely hostile attitude toward Putin (“the new Hitler”), which promises conflict with a major nuclear power.

    As for benefitting from tax laws, Pat Buchanan pointed out that Hillary used to her benefit a loss almost as large as Trump’s and during the Arkansas years Hillary even took a tax deduction for itemized pieces of used clothing donated to a charity, including $2 for one of Bill’s used underpants.

    The vice presidential “debate” revealed that the Democratic Party’s candidate is so ignorant that he thinks Putin, who is democratically elected and has enormous public support, is a dictator.

    Here is what we know about the two presidential candidates. Hillary has a long list of scandals from Whitewater and Vince Foster to Benghazi and violation of national security protocols. She is bought-and-paid-for by the oligarchs on Wall Street, in the mega-banks, and in the military-security complex as well as by foreign interests. The proof is the Clinton’s $120 million personal fortune and the $1,600 million in their foundation. Goldman Sachs did not pay Hillary $675,000 for three 20-minute speeches for the wisdom they contained.

    What we know about Trump is that the oligarchic establishment cannot stand him and has ordered the Ministry of Propaganda, a.k.a., the US media, to destroy him.

    Clearly, Hillary is the candidate of the One Percent, and Trump is the candidate for the rest of us.

    Unfortunately, about half of the 99 percent is too dumb to know this.

    Moreover, if Trump were to end up in the White House, it doesn’t mean he could prevail over the oligarchy.

    The oligarchy is entrenched in Washington with control over economic and foreign policy positions, think tanks and other lobbyists, and the media.

    The people control nothing.

    What does the world think when they see Donald Trump damned because he doesn’t want war with Russia or the American economy moved offshore?

    Where in American politics do Washington’s European, British, Canadian, Australian, and Japanese vassals see leadership worthy of their sacrifice of sovereignty and independent foreign policy? Where do they even see a modicum of intelligence?

    Why does the world look to the most stupid, vile, arrogant, corrupt and murderous government on the planet for leadership?

    War is the only destination to which Washington can lead.

  • Top Gold Forecaster: “As Quickly As Gold Fell" May "Rally Back” on Global Risks

    Top Gold Forecaster Says “As Quickly As Gold Fell” May “Rally Back” on Global Risks

    Gold’s largest plunge in 14 months may soon reverse according to gold’s top forecaster in Q3 according to Bloomberg:

    Looming risks from the U.S. presidential election in November to Britain starting talks to leave the European Union next year may boost its role as a haven, said Barnabas Gan, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore. Increasing shale oil output in the U.S. is also likely to cool the surge in crude prices, curbing inflation, he said.

    “As quickly as gold fell, as quickly gold could rally back,” Gan said in a report received Wednesday. “Weak inflationary pressures may once again lift gold prices back to their previous shine.” He was the most accurate forecaster of the metal in the third quarter, according to Bloomberg data.

    Bullion slumped Tuesday on speculation that the period of easy monetary policy is ending. The European Central Bank was said to be building an informal consensus to wind down bond purchases gradually, while Federal Reserve officials called this week for higher U.S. borrowing costs amid signs of an improving economy. Oil prices have also been rising, stoking inflation worries and boosting the odds of a rate hike.

    Little evidence has emerged of investors cutting holdings in exchange-traded funds. Assets climbed 3.1 metric tons to 2,036.5 tons Tuesday to hold near the highest level since 2013, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

    Some further downward pressure is still expected in the near term from an eventual victory for Democrat Hillary Clinton in the presidential poll on Nov. 8, which would price the risk of dramatic policy uncertainty under Donald Trump out of the market, according to BMI Research. Over the long term, low real interest rates would ensure precious metals remain an attractive investment, it said in a report dated October 4.

    Bullion may average $1,400 next year, BMI forecasts.

    Gold forecasting is a mugs game at the best of times but given the uncertain geo-political situation, the fragile banking system and the very strong fundamentals for gold, it is hard to argue with Barnabas Gan of OCBC  or BMI. Gold should be meaningfully higher in the coming months and into 2017 as investors diversify into gold. Or rather we are likely to see dollars, euros, pounds and other fiat currencies continue to be devalued versus gold.

    Read full article here

    Gold and Silver Bullion – News and Commentary

    Wounded Gold Bull Market Steadies After Worst Slump in 3 Years (Bloomberg)

    Gold edges up as bargain hunters step in after falls (Reuters)

    Fed Hike Shouldn’t Shake Investor Faith in Gold, Says Mine Chief (Bloomberg)

    Gold steadies after extending losses to lowest since June (Reuters)

    Banks must face U.S. gold rigging lawsuit (Reuters)

    Video: Gold’s “Path Of Least Resistance Is Up”, Silver More Potential (Bloomberg)

    Deutsche Shows Banking Remains “Accident Waiting To Happen” – Wolf (IrishTimes)

    Deutsche Bank Brings Too-Big-to-Fail Quandary Home to Merkel (Bloomberg)

    Gundlach: “Deutsche Bank Will Be Bailed Out But What About Credit Suisse” (ZeroHedge)

    Gold & Silver Smash Was Orchestrated To Bailout Shorts (KingWorldNews)

    Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

    06 Oct: USD 1,265.50, GBP 994.30 & EUR 1,131.23 per ounce
    05 Oct: USD 1,274.00, GBP 1,001.11 & EUR 1,134.37 per ounce
    04 Oct: USD 1,309.15, GBP 1,026.90 & EUR 1,172.21 per ounce
    03 Oct: USD 1,318.65, GBP 1,023.40 & EUR 1,173.99 per ounce
    30 Sep: USD 1,327.90, GBP 1,025.01 & EUR 1,187.67 per ounce
    29 Sep: USD 1,320.85, GBP 1,016.92 & EUR 1,177.14 per ounce
    28 Sep: USD 1,324.80, GBP 1,020.10 & EUR 1,181.06 per ounce

    Silver Prices (LBMA)

    06 Oct: USD 17.76, GBP 13.98 & EUR 15.88 per ounce
    05 Oct: USD 17.80, GBP 13.99 & EUR 15.86 per ounce
    04 Oct: USD 18.74, GBP 14.68 & EUR 16.78 per ounce
    03 Oct: USD 19.18, GBP 14.89 & EUR 17.07 per ounce
    30 Sep: USD 19.35, GBP 14.92 & EUR 17.33 per ounce
    29 Sep: USD 19.01, GBP 14.61 & EUR 16.95 per ounce
    28 Sep: USD 19.12, GBP 14.69 & EUR 17.05 per ounce


    Recent Market Updates

    – Gold Buying ‘Opportunity’ After Surprise 3.4% Drop
    – Deutsche Bank “Is Probably Insolvent”
    – GBP Gold Rises 1.3% as Sterling Slumps On ‘Hard Brexit’ Concerns, Up 36% YTD
    – Why Krugman, Roubini, Rogoff And Buffett Hate Gold
    – ECB Refused “To Answer Questions” – Deutsche Bank “Systemic Threat” Is “Not ECB Fault”
    – Euro “Might Start To Unravel” If Collapse Of Deutsche Bank
    – Do You Really Own Your Gold?
    – “Gold Will Likely Soar To A Record Within Five Years”
    – Savings Guarantee? U.N. Warns Next Financial Crisis Imminent
    – Gold Up 1.5%, Silver Surges 3% – Yellen Stays Ultra Loose At 0.25%
    – Trump and Clinton Are “Positive For Gold” – $1,900/oz by End of Year
    – Gold Bugs Rejoice – Central Banks Think You’re On To Something
    – ‘Hard’ Brexit Looms For Ireland

    Log In and Buy Now To Lock In Lower Gold and Silver Prices

  • More Illegal Immigrant Voters Discovered In Philly – "Just The Tip Of The Iceberg"

    Over the past few weeks, we’ve written frequently about allegations of voter fraud from around the country.  The key swing state of Virginia, in particular, seems to be a hotbed of potential corruption as evidenced by the actions of 19 year old “Young Virginia Democrat”, Andrew Spieles, who allegedly acted alone to re-register a bunch of dead voters in his home state (see our post here).  Then there were the efforts of Virginia’s governor, and long-time Clinton confidant, Terry McAuliffe to register 200,000 felons to vote.

    But Virginia, isn’t the only state with questionable voter registration practices.  Fraudulent voter registrations have been uncovered in Colorado, where dead people were found to be voting multiple years after their death, and in Washington where the Turkish-born, non-citizen who killed five people at the Cascade Mall massacre has apparently been voting for years.  

    Now, the latest voter registration fraud comes from the “City of Brotherly Love” where, according to LifeZette, an investigation by Joseph Vanderhulst, an attorney with the Public Interest Legal Foundation, revealed that 86 “non-citizens” have been registered to vote in Phildelphia for years with half of them casting ballots in at least 1 election.  What’s worse, the only reason Philadelphia election officials were even able to identify the “non-citizen” voters was because they had self-reported that they were erroneously registered to vote after a trip to the DMV to get a drivers license.  According to Vanderhulst’s investigation, the DMV “errs on the side of registering voters” if there are any discrepancies on their forms.

    Vanderhulst said city officials indicated they err on the side of registering voters.

     

    “If the checked [citizenship] boxes are blank, they still register them,” he said. “That’s how these people are getting on the rolls … It’s just too easy. Maybe it’s supposed to be easy — but the price of that seems to be no discretion on the front end.”

    Voters

     

    Of the fraudulently registered voters in Philly, 59 were registered as Democrats while 21 had no party affiliation and only 6 were registered as Republicans…which we suspect will come as a surprise to almost no one.  But apparently this isn’t a new phenomenon in Philadelphia.  Vanderhulst’s investigation found that dozens of illegally registered voters are discovered each year and many of them have participated in multiple election cycles.  

    • The city canceled 23 registered voters in 2015. Of that group, seven voted in past elections, and three had been registered for more than a decade.
    • The city canceled 30 registered voters in 2014. Of that group, 18 had voted in past elections, and eight had been registered for at least a decade.
    • The city canceled 33 registered voters in 2013. Of that group, 15 had voted in past elections, and six had been registered for at least a decade.

    Of course, none of these recent cases of voter fraud had any impact on a U.S. appeals court that recently denied efforts by Kansas, Alabama and Georgia to add a proof-of-citizenship requirement to federal voter registration forms.  Among other things, the court cited “‘precious little’ evidence of voter fraud by noncitizens.”  Per the Washington Post:

    A U.S. appeals court panel that barred Kansas, Alabama and Georgia from adding a proof-of-citizenship requirement to a federal voter registration form wrote Monday that federal law leaves it to a federal elections agency — not the states — to determine whether such a change is ­necessary.

     

    The panel wrote that although the document requirement “unquestionably” hinders voter registration groups ahead of the November elections, there was “precious little” evidence of voter fraud by noncitizens, the problem the states said the measure is intended to fight.

     

    “Permitting the states to dictate the contents of the Federal Form would undermine” its role as a ‘backstop, the two-judge majority wrote. “The Commission, not the states, determines necessity.”

    Which begs the question, exactly how much evidence of illegal voting is officially required before states will be allowed to implement common sense rules to prevent fraud?

  • Why Democracy Rewards Bad People

    Submitted by Hans-Hermann Hoppe via The Mises Institute,

    One of the most widely accepted propositions among political economists is the following: Every monopoly is bad from the viewpoint of consumers. Monopoly is understood in its classical sense to be an exclusive privilege granted to a single producer of a commodity or service, i.e., as the absence of free entry into a particular line of production. In other words, only one agency, A, may produce a given good, x. Any such monopolist is bad for consumers because, shielded from potential new entrants into his area of production, the price of the monopolist's product x will be higher and the quality of x lower than otherwise.

    This elementary truth has frequently been invoked as an argument in favor of democratic government as opposed to classical, monarchical or princely government. This is because under democracy entry into the governmental apparatus is free — anyone can become prime minister or president — whereas under monarchy it is restricted to the king and his heir.

    However, this argument in favor of democracy is fatally flawed. Free entry is not always good. Free entry and competition in the production of goods is good, but free competition in the production of bads is not. Free entry into the business of torturing and killing innocents, or free competition in counterfeiting or swindling, for instance, is not good; it is worse than bad. So what sort of "business" is government? Answer: it is not a customary producer of goods sold to voluntary consumers. Rather, it is a "business" engaged in theft and expropriation — by means of taxes and counterfeiting — and the fencing of stolen goods. Hence, free entry into government does not improve something good. Indeed, it makes matters worse than bad, i.e., it improves evil.

    Since man is as man is, in every society people who covet others' property exist. Some people are more afflicted by this sentiment than others, but individuals usually learn not to act on such feelings or even feel ashamed for entertaining them. Generally only a few individuals are unable to successfully suppress their desire for others' property, and they are treated as criminals by their fellow men and repressed by the threat of physical punishment. Under princely government, only one single person — the prince — can legally act on the desire for another man's property, and it is this which makes him a potential danger and a "bad."

    However, a prince is restricted in his redistributive desires because all members of society have learned to regard the taking and redistributing of another man's property as shameful and immoral. Accordingly, they watch a prince's every action with utmost suspicion. In distinct contrast, by opening entry into government, anyone is permitted to freely express his desire for others' property. What formerly was regarded as immoral and accordingly was suppressed is now considered a legitimate sentiment. Everyone may openly covet everyone else's property in the name of democracy; and everyone may act on this desire for another's property, provided that he finds entrance into government. Hence, under democracy everyone becomes a threat.

    Consequently, under democratic conditions the popular though immoral and anti-social desire for another man's property is systematically strengthened. Every demand is legitimate if it is proclaimed publicly under the special protection of "freedom of speech." Everything can be said and claimed, and everything is up for grabs. Not even the seemingly most secure private property right is exempt from redistributive demands. Worse, subject to mass elections, those members of society with little or no inhibitions against taking another man's property, that is, habitual a-moralists who are most talented in assembling majorities from a multitude of morally uninhibited and mutually incompatible popular demands (efficient demagogues) will tend to gain entrance in and rise to the top of government. Hence, a bad situation becomes even worse.

    Historically, the selection of a prince was through the accident of his noble birth, and his only personal qualification was typically his upbringing as a future prince and preserver of the dynasty, its status, and its possessions. This did not assure that a prince would not be bad and dangerous, of course. However, it is worth remembering that any prince who failed in his primary duty of preserving the dynasty — who ruined the country, caused civil unrest, turmoil and strife, or otherwise endangered the position of the dynasty — faced the immediate risk either of being neutralized or assassinated by another member of his own family. In any case, however, even if the accident of birth and his upbringing did not preclude that a prince might be bad and dangerous, at the same time the accident of a noble birth and a princely education also did not preclude that he might be a harmless dilettante or even a good and moral person.

    In contrast, the selection of government rulers by means of popular elections makes it nearly impossible that a good or harmless person could ever rise to the top. Prime ministers and presidents are selected for their proven efficiency as morally uninhibited demagogues. Thus, democracy virtually assures that only bad and dangerous men will ever rise to the top of government. Indeed, as a result of free political competition and selection, those who rise will become increasingly bad and dangerous individuals, yet as temporary and interchangeable caretakers they will only rarely be assassinated.

    One can do no better than quote H.L. Mencken in this connection. "Politicians," he notes with his characteristic wit, "seldom if ever get [into public office] by merit alone, at least in democratic states. Sometimes, to be sure, it happens, but only by a kind of miracle. They are chosen normally for quite different reasons, the chief of which is simply their power to impress and enchant the intellectually underprivileged….Will any of them venture to tell the plain truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth about the situation of the country, foreign or domestic? Will any of them refrain from promises that he knows he can't fulfill — that no human being could fulfill? Will any of them utter a word, however obvious, that will alarm or alienate any of the huge pack of morons who cluster at the public trough, wallowing in the pap that grows thinner and thinner, hoping against hope? Answer: may be for a few weeks at the start…. But not after the issue is fairly joined, and the struggle is on in earnest…. They will all promise every man, woman and child in the country whatever he, she or it wants. They'll all be roving the land looking for chances to make the rich poor, to remedy the irremediable, to succor the unsuccorable, to unscramble the unscrambleable, to dephlogisticate the undephlogisticable. They will all be curing warts by saying words over them, and paying off the national debt with money no one will have to earn. When one of them demonstrates that twice two is five, another will prove that it is six, six and a half, ten, twenty, n. In brief, they will divest themselves from their character as sensible, candid and truthful men, and simply become candidates for office, bent only on collaring votes. They will all know by then, even supposing that some of them don't know it now, that votes are collared under democracy, not by talking sense but by talking nonsense, and they will apply themselves to the job with a hearty yo-heave-ho. Most of them, before the uproar is over, will actually convince themselves. The winner will be whoever promises the most with the least probability of delivering anything."

  • Algos, Barriers, Rumors: Some Theories On What Caused The Pound Flash Crash

    As reported moments ago, just around 7:07pm ET, cable snapped and plunged by what some say may have been as much as 1200 pips, dropping from 1.26 to as low as 1.14 according to some brokers, before snapping back up.

     

    What caused the move? While nobody knows the catalyst behind the flash crash  yet, Bloomberg has compiled several potential explanations.

    • “The GBP/USD slide could be due to erroneous order and/or flows related to stop-loss orders or options given USD/JPY or EUR/USD aren’t moving much”, says Toshihiko Sakai, Tokyo-based chief manager of FX and financial products trading at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust & Banking.
    • “Looks like there was a large GBP sell order amid thin liquidity”, says Kyosuke Suzuki, head of FX and money-market sales at Societe Generale.
    • Others believe that the massive move has been partly attributed to algos failing after traders targeted downside option barriers, say three Asia-based FX dealers. Traders typically place their nearest orders within 100 ticks of spot, which was at roughly 1.26 before today’s plunge.
    • The drop accelerated as liquidity disappeared, and dealers failed to load bids into their trading platforms, say traders. In other words, your plain, garden variety algo-facilitated flash crash, where the bid side suddenly disappears as one or more “liquidity providers” turn themselves off.
    • One trader told Bloomberg that his FX pricing aggregator of eight contributors blacked out for 30 seconds amid an absence of bids.
    • Furthermore, multiple large option barriers in the over-the-counter market were triggered, including 1.25 and 1.20, say traders.  Traders say they missed buy orders much lower down and had to scramble to cover inherited short positions, thus contributing to the roughly 500-point rally.

    Hopefully we will have a clear, official, and accurate answer from regulators for the crash soon: investors faith in broken markets is already non-existent as it is. However, if the May 2010 flash crash is any indication, the reason behind the collapse may not be forthcoming until 2021, and even then it will be blamed on some spoofer, living in his parents’ basement.

    Another question: whether any FX brokerages will need a bailout a la the infamous FXCM, in the aftermath of the Swiss National Bank revaluation of January 2015, as clients find themselves margined out and underwater even as cable is steadily recovering most, if not all losses.

    Whatever the reason, however, Kuroda will take two.

  • "The Most Important Ever" Payrolls Preview (Again)

    The distribution of guesses for tomorrow's "most important payrolls print ever" or at least until next month, skews modestly to the upside after the biggest spike in ISM employment ever this week jarred some economists to become more optimistic, and side with Goldman Sachs expecting a Fed-inspiring drop in the unemployment rate, rise in average hourly earnings, and better than expected payrolls of 190K. As a result, while consensus expects a NFP rebound from 151K to 172K, the whisper number is around 200k. Anything above this would send December rate hike odds surging to the all important 70% or above, bond yields spiking and equities at the mercy of whichever way the risk parity machines were calibrated tomorrow.

    Others disagree: Southbay Research is leaning on the bearish side, nothing the following positive and negative factors ahead of tomorrow's report:

    The Good

    • ISM Non-Mftg: Surges to 57.1 from 51.4
    • ISM Mftg: Up to 51.5 from 49.4
    • PMI Services: Up to 52.3 from 51
    • Chicago PMI: Up 54.2 from 51.5

    The Bad

    • ADP: Payrolls drop (Forecast September 155K)
    • PMI Mftng: Slips to 51.5 from 52
    • Construction: drops -0.7% versus -0.3% prior month
    • Corporate Profits 2Q: -1.7% y/y versus -2.2% prior quarter
    • Durable Goods Orders (ex Trans):  -0.4%

    Employment indicators:

    • ISM Non-Mftg: Employment Index surges to 57.2 from 50.7
    • ISM Mftg: Employment Index ticks up to 49.7 from 48.3
    • PMI Services: Weakest employment levels in 4.5 years
    • PMI Mftg: Employment consistent with 115K jobs

    It is worth noting that conflicting data is the hallmark of inflection points.  Furthermore, as Southbay notes, "Forget Manufacturing, Focus on Services." Here is the full bearish case:

    Look past manufacturing data for two reasons: (1) no real news here – manufacturing continues to be stuck in a low gear and (2) manufacturing doesn't factor much into September payrolls. 

     

    Services will drive the September payrolls.  Specifically Leisure & Hospitality jobs. 

     

    As Summer vacation ends, restaurants, hotels and recreational hot spots wind down and layoff seasonal workers.  The nominal level of layoffs is driven by exactly two things: the number of workers added and the amount of customer foot traffic.

     

    A Good reason to Expect Heavier Layoffs: On a trailing 12 month basis, the Leisure Hospitality sector has added about the same number of jobs as the prior year.

     

     

    What is different this year is that Restaurant operators have lost confidence.

     

    According to the National Restaurant Association, the Restaurant Performance Index turned negative in August.  The last time it was negative was February: that kicked off the weakest level of Restaurant payrolls since 2012. 

     

    Sales expectations remain weak and barely expansionary.  Consequently staffing expectations have shifted into contractionary territory

     

    Expect layoffs to at least equal, if not exceed, last year's.

     

    Bottom line: The biggest driver for September Payrolls is Restaurant payrolls, and they are looking weak.

    Whatever the actual number, expect the consensus to be vastly wrong as the last few months have been "volatile" outliers to say the least:

    Going back to the bullish, "whsiper" outlier, Goldman expects a 190k increase in nonfarm payroll employment in September, above consensus expectations for a 172k gain, and up from their preliminary forecast of 175k. Although payroll growth slowed to 155k last month, subdued employment gains are not uncommon in August, and the trend growth rate in payrolls still looks solid, with the trailing 3- and 6-month averages at 232k and 175k, respectively.

    Some observations from GS:

    Their above-consensus payroll forecast primarily reflects improving underlying labor market fundamentals during the course of the month. Initial jobless claims continued trending down towards post-crisis lows, and nearly all other employment indicators from the various regional and national manufacturing and service sector surveys turned up. The ISM non-manufacturing survey’s employment index had its largest gain on record. In addition, we expect a modest rebound in employment in Louisiana, which fell by nearly 8k last month, likely due to adverse weather conditions. Offsetting these improvements, we look for a decline in employment in the education sector (specifically, private education services and state & local government education employment), which has been growing at a roughly 30k pace over the last three months, well above the +8k monthly average since 2011. Employment in the education sector has been highly volatile during September in recent years (Exhibit 1), and monthly gains have averaged -7k since 2011.

    Arguing for a stronger report:

    • Job availability: The Conference Board’s labor differential—the difference between the share of consumers saying jobs are plentiful vs. hard to get—rose 2.3pt to +6.3, reaching a new post-crisis high
    • Jobless claims: The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims during the survey week fell by 7k to 258k. The continued downtrend in initial claims suggests that layoff activity across the economy remains minimal. Insured unemployment, or continuing claims, fell by 81k between the August and September survey weeks, and currently sits at post-crisis lows.
    • Service sector surveys: On balance, the employment components of service sector surveys improved in September. The ISM non-manufacturing report’s employment index registered its largest increase on record, rising 6.5pt to 57.2. The NY Fed (+5.3pt to +8.1, not seasonally adjusted) and Philly Fed (+9.3pt to +19.3) surveys also rose. Offsetting these increases were declines in the Richmond Fed (-7pt to +6) and Dallas Fed (-1.4pt to +4.4) surveys. Service sector employment rose 150k last month, and has increased 164k on average over the last six months.
    • Manufacturing surveys: Almost all of the employment components of the various monthly manufacturing surveys improved in September. The ISM manufacturing (+1.4pt to 49.7), Philly Fed (+14.7pt to -5.3), Dallas Fed (+7.3pt to +2.3) and Kansas City Fed (+7 to -3) rose, while the Richmond Fed (-20pt to -13) declined. Manufacturing employment fell by 14k in August, and has declined by 7k on average over the last six months.

    Arguing for a weaker report:

    • ADP: ADP reported a 154k gain in private payroll employment in September, below a revised +175k increase in August. Service-sector job gains softened a bit to 183k, manufacturing employment was flat, and construction employment fell 2k. Despite the softening in ADP employment, we have found this to have somewhat mixed value as an input towards forecasting nonfarm payrolls.
    • Online job ads: The Conference Board’s Help Wanted Online (HWOL) report showed a small 0.4% increase in new online job ads in September, while total jobs listed fell by 1.9%. However, we put only limited weight on this indicator at the moment in light of recent research by Fed economists that argued that the HWOL ad count—which has departed significantly from the job openings figures in the official Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)—has been influenced by price increases for online job ads.
    • Job cuts: According to the Challenger, Gray & Christmas report, job cuts rose 17.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis in September, although they remain roughly 25% lower than their year ago levels.

    We expect the unemployment rate to decline to 4.8% in August from an unrounded 4.922% in August. The headline U3 rate was unchanged in August but is up from a low of 4.7% in May, while the broader U6 underemployment rate held steady at 9.7%. The household survey showed a modest 97k increase in employment versus a 176k increase in the labor force. The labor force participation rate remained at 62.8%, close to where it has been since the beginning of the year.

    Average hourly earnings for all workers are likely to rise 0.3% in August, in large part reflecting favorable calendar effects. As a result, we expect the year-on-year rate to rise to 2.7% from 2.4%. The broader wage data remain encouraging: our wage tracker—which aggregates four measures of wage growth—stands at 2.6% year-on-year, a sign that diminishing slack is boosting wage growth.

    Separately, many commentators have highlighted this year’s decline in average weekly hours worked in the establishment survey, fearing that it signals weakness in labor demand. The decline in average hours appears to be relatively widespread across states and industries (Exhibits 2 & 3).

    Although it is hard to find a basis for dismissing the decline in hours worked, the series can be a bit noisy on a month-to-month basis. Furthermore, falling hours appear at odds with fundamental payroll growth figures and other labor market indicators over the same horizon, and we thus would hesitate to take an overly negative signal from these series as of yet.

    *  *  *

    And finally, if you needed any advice on trading the print, it's simple – no matter what the print – wait until US markets open and buy it all with both hands and feet:

  • A Look Inside Key West's Battle To Prevent Release Of GMO Mosquitos

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    We’ve all heard of the Zika virus. What you probably haven’t heard of is British biotechnology company Oxitec, purchased last year by billionaire Randal Kirk. A company that has released A. aegypti killing GMO mosquitos in at least Brazil, Malaysia, Panama and the Grand Cayman islands. The company also planned a release in the Florida Keys, but has thus far been stopped by a group of determined activists.

    Bloomberg covered the story in a fascinating article published earlier today titled, Florida’s Feud Over Zika-Fighting GMO Mosquitoes.

    What follows are excerpts from that piece:

    On a Tuesday morning in September, under a sweltering tropical sun on the island of Grand Cayman, 140,000 mosquitoes flit around in four large coolers in the back of a gray Toyota minivan. Behind the wheel is Renaud Lacroix, a Ph.D. in biology and medical entomology who works for the British biotechnology company Oxitec. A colleague, Isavella Evangelou, crouches behind him in a tight space next to the coolers. The minivan is idling on the side of a dirt road in West Bay, a quiet neighborhood where iguanas and roosters dart in and out of the yards of small homes painted in Caribbean pastels. The time has come for the mosquitoes to fulfill the purpose for which they were genetically engineered: a kamikaze mission to eliminate their own species.

     

    It takes over two and half hours, emptying container after container, to release all the mosquitoes into West Bay. They’ve been doing this three times a week since July; residents used to grimace when they drove by, but now they barely glance over. The procedure seems more disruptive to those of us in the van. Each time Evangelou opens a container, a fair number of mosquitoes escape the wind tunnel and start buzzing around our heads. “There will be a few fliers, yeah,” Lacroix says with a smirk.

     

    Male mosquitoes, he reminds me, aren’t the ones that bite. Just about the only thing male mosquitoes do, he says, is seek out females, which do the biting. Oxitec is trying to leverage this mating instinct to help wipe out one particular species of mosquito: Aedes aegypti, carrier and spreader of some of the worst insect-borne diseases known to medicine—dengue, malaria, and Zika. The A. aegypti mosquito has evolved to survive even the most effective pesticides. It can lay 500 eggs in just a bottle cap’s worth of water, and it prefers to bite humans over animals, so it lives in places where no one thinks to spray, like under the couch.

     

    The idea behind Oxitec’s experiment is that if enough genetically modified male A. aegypti mosquitoes are released into the wild, they’ll track down large numbers of females in those hard-to-find places and mate with them. The eggs that result from any union with an Oxitec mosquito will carry a fatal genetic trait engineered into the father—a “kill switch,” geneticists call it. The next generation of A. aegypti mosquitoes will never survive past the larval stage, never fly, never bite, and never spread disease. No mosquitoes, no Zika.

     

    The approach was developed by founder Luke Alphey, a British geneticist specializing in vector control, or the elimination of disease-bearing creatures. Oxitec has applied the method in Brazil, Malaysia, and Panama, often with partial support from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and claims to have reduced the A. aegypti population in tiny test areas by at least 90 percent. That’s a far better percentage than spraying, which usually hits about 50 percent and has a tendency to breed resistance, requiring more and more spraying to get the same low result.

     

    Chief Executive Officer Haydn Parry has called Oxitec’s method “a dead end” for the A. aegypti species. And, of course, in the age of Zika, such a dead end couldn’t be more desirable. Since the news emerged last spring that a spike in cases of microcephaly in Brazil appeared to have been caused by Zika, politicians and public-health officials from around the world have been beating a path to Oxitec’s door. U.S. officials were among them, even as Congress dithered all summer before finally, in late September, approving the funding of countermeasures to prevent large outbreaks. “I don’t think time is on our side,” Parry told a congressional committee in May. “I think the utmost urgency is required. I’ve just come from Puerto Rico, and we could have a catastrophe on our hands if we are not careful.” The big winner if Oxitec ends up enlisted to fight Zika in the U.S. would be Intrexon, a biotech company run by billionaire Randal Kirk, which acquired Oxitec for $160 million in the summer of 2015.

     

    This August, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Oxitec’s first stateside experiment, in Key Haven, Fla., an unincorporated area separated by a narrow stretch of water from Key West. In many respects, you couldn’t ask for a better test site in America. It’s secluded, tropical, and surrounded by water, which prevents new mosquitoes from entering the area. If the Oxitec method works in Key Haven, then Florida, and the country, could have a powerful tool to help stop an incipient public-health crisis.

     

    There is, however, an obstacle. Oxitec has been trying to conduct a trial in the Keys for seven years, ever since a dengue outbreak there. Local opponents have thwarted those attempts for years, and now they’ve forced a pair of referendums, set for November, on the Key Haven test. Officials from the local Mosquito Control District have pledged to be guided by that vote—even if it means saying no to the FDA’s approved experiment, with a major Zika crisis looming over Florida. In public meetings, on local radio, and, of course, online, opponents have all but commandeered the conversation about mosquitoes and Zika in the Keys. They call Oxitec’s tactics unethical and underhanded. They call the company’s science untested, unproven, and unsafe. Above all, they’re worried about unintended consequences. Their not-so-affectionate name for the Oxitec mosquitoes: Frankenflies.

     

    The Florida Keys Mosquito Control District (MCD) is run by a board of five commissioners—elected officials, not bureaucrats—and commands a $10 million annual operating budget and 69 full-time employees. When there’s trouble, the board can decide more or less unilaterally how to deal with it. In 2009, when A. aegypti brought dengue to the Keys for the first time in nearly eight decades, the board responded with an aggressive approach that saw workers go door to door to persuade residents to eliminate standing water and take other preventive measures. The disease subsided, but only after 88 people were infected. That was when the Mosquito Control District went searching for something that might be capable of wiping out A. aegypti completely. Enter Oxitec.

     

    In 2011 the MCD announced that all of the city of Key West—its 25,000 citizens, its millions of visitors—would be subject to a trial of Oxitec’s technology, overseen by the FDA. The MCD said the price tag would be less than $10 per resident, and it expected to break even on the investment by requiring less aerial spraying against the mosquito. The Keys, however, have no shortage of activists who know how to push back against government. Ed Russo is chairman of the Florida Keys Environmental Coalition, a group formed after the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill. He’s also worked as a business consultant to Donald Trump, and recently wrote a short e-book titled Donald J. Trump: An Environmental Hero. (Trump was the first donor to the coalition.) Russo’s group was among those incensed that the MCD appeared to be fast-tracking the Oxitec experiment by having it overseen by the FDA, which would treat the GMO technology as an animal drug, rather than as a biopesticide, which might have required a complete environmental impact statement from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. “If you even want to take down one tree in a wetland, you need an EIS,” Russo says. “And these clowns don’t want to do an EIS? And we’re considered anti-science?”

     

    At a particularly heated community meeting with the MCD board in 2012, Russo asked a series of questions about Oxitec’s protocols and whether the MCD was prepared for problems. Russo says the board had no answers for him that day, and no answers over the next two months. Then the MCD announced that, after consulting with the FDA, it had decided to move the venue for the experiment. Instead of Key West, the proposed trial would be conducted in Key Haven, a small community of 144 homes on a neighboring island. “That’s when all the flags went up and the sirens wailed,” Russo says. “Would you let your family take part in a scientific experiment without your informed consent in writing? If you’re a prisoner in an institution in the United States, you are given that right.”

     

    Mila de Mier, a real estate agent in the Keys, started a Change.org petition to “say no to genetically modified mosquitoes in the Florida Keys,” which eventually got 170,000 signatures from around the country. Activists worldwide offered support and expertise. It took de Mier years, and the threat of a lawsuit, to get the MCD to say how many A. aegypti mosquitoes it estimated were in Key Haven. When she secured the data, earlier this year, it indicated that there were practically none—or at least not enough to call for traditional spraying methods. De Mier, who’s emerged as a grass-roots leader of the resistance, says she realized that as successful as Oxitec’s method was said to be, it had never faced serious public scrutiny before coming to the U.S. “I saw what they did in Brazil,” she says. “They brought a truck around with a loudspeaker, and they made a song. ‘God sent you the mosquito to heal you.’ That was the public engagement.” (Oxitec does use vehicles with loudspeakers in Brazil, but it also distributes more scientifically based information.)

     

    As Oxitec prepared its full proposal to the FDA, the company released more details, and others started asking questions. Meagan Hull, a longtime resident, wondered why, if Oxitec’s method was all about male GMO mosquitoes, did the company’s data say it also let loose some females in its test—about 1 per 1,000 males? Did those females mate, and breed, and bite? Had anyone studied the long-term effects of that? Wouldn’t some Keys residents almost certainly be bitten by a GMO mosquito? Even the males, some said, might create antibiotic resistance in the community, because all the mosquitoes Oxitec grows in its lab are doused during the larval stage with tetracycline, to bypass their kill switches and allow them to grow to adulthood. “The tetracycline’s going to cause resistance,” says John Norris, a local physician. “They care nothing about the fact that they are breeding resistant germs of no purpose.” He’s gotten more than a dozen local doctors to sign a letter objecting to the plan.

     

    David Bethune, a computer programmer and artist, wondered why Oxitec seemed so sanguine about long-term effects. “We don’t understand how the science works, but we do understand that when you put a genetically modified organism into the wild, there are going to be other consequences than just reducing the population,” he says. Chief among them: What might take A. aegypti’s place in the ecosystem? Something stronger? “Just to say, ‘We’ve got it all worked out’ is really unnecessarily arrogant,” Bethune says. “We’re the little guinea pigs on an island that they thought of as Margaritaville. They thought that we would all be out having a cocktail and just not care?”

     

    Then the Zika crisis emerged late last year, and the debate went off the rails. In January a Reddit thread, posted in a forum known for floating conspiracies, raised the possibility that it was Oxitec’s testing in Brazil that had caused the birth defects public health officials were attributing to Zika. The anonymous author posited that some of Oxitec’s GMO offspring do, in fact, survive and pass on their genes, blending with Zika to create a megavirus that brought about microcephaly. The entire notion has been disproved—chiefly because the concentration of birth defects in Brazil is located 400 miles from Oxitec’s test site, and the A. aegypti mosquito travels only a few hundred yards in its lifetime. But that hasn’t kept some opponents in the Keys from revisiting the question, even now.

     

    “I have nothing against spraying whatsoever,” said Judy Martinez, another neighbor, at the same meeting. “But I am against monkeying around with Mother Nature. They’re going to kill us off, that’s what’s going to happen.” The resolution was ultimately voted down.

     

    The Florida Keys Environmental Coalition takes no official position on the Oxitec-Zika conspiracy theory. But Barry Wray, the group’s executive director, is willing to keep the conversation going. “We’re witnessing the results of the microcephaly question gradually evolve,” he says. Wray is also happy to give oxygen to another roundly denied conspiracy theory—that the local government was won over by Oxitec in a less-than-aboveboard way. “There’s some more nefarious things that have occurred and are occurring right now, and I’m not at liberty to talk about those right at the moment,” he says.

     

    Derric Nimmo, Oxitec’s head of public-health research, remains slightly baffled by the dissidents’ claims. “I’ve done town hall meetings, done board meetings, gone door to door,” he says; the exchanges are mostly cordial, but strained. “I’ve kind of turned into, rather by accident, a communication person for Oxitec in the Keys.” It’s not a natural fit for him. “I’m a scientist at heart. It’s my background, you know, a Ph.D. My postdoc was all about molecular biology in insects. And so I’ve had to learn to try and—not dumb that down, that’s the wrong word—to try to communicate that in a simple way that people can understand.”

     

    He moves through the criticisms as quickly as he can. Even if some females are released, he says, they will have the same kill switch gene the males have, and their offspring will die in the larval stage. If the females do end up biting anyone, it would have the same impact as any ordinary mosquito bite; all the lab-bred mosquitoes are screened for disease before being released. The amount of tetracycline used on the mosquitoes is “extremely low,” he says, trivial next to what you’d find in, say, a typical pig farm. As for long-term impacts, the GMO mosquitoes never effectively reproduce, which means the entire system is closed. “Within six to eight weeks there’s no evidence of [Oxitec mosquitoes] in the wild at all,” he says.

     

    During the 60-day public-comment period for the FDA’s review of Oxitec’s proposal, he says, “there were 2,700 comments, and the FDA, the CDC, and the EPA have looked at all of those, and they’ve said there’s nothing here scientifically valid that changes our minds.” Yet for years now he’s been forced into a rear-guard action.

    The whole Reddit conspiracy theory drives Nimmo to distraction. “We’ve also had several articles from independent people, saying this is not true, but it does keep coming up, all the time. So we just have to keep answering it.”

     

    The swelling controversy in the Keys was enough to force two separate referendums on Nov. 8—one for Key Haven residents and one for all of Monroe County, which contains the Keys and a portion of the Everglades. The results won’t be binding, but three of the five Mosquito Control District commissioners have promised to honor the will of the people.

    Only 3 of the 5?

    If the Keys scuttle the project, it may go against broader public opinion. A national survey released in February by Purdue University found that 78 percent of those surveyed supported using GMO mosquitoes to fight Zika. Last month a bipartisan group of 61 Florida state legislators issued a statement asking the FDA to use emergency powers to give them Oxitec right now. “What’s happened now is you have various mosquito districts saying, ‘Why can’t we use this technology?’ ” says Parry, Oxitec’s CEO. If the vote goes against Oxitec, “we would move the trial somewhere else,” he muses. “But obviously it would be more preferable and more convenient to do it where we planned to do it.”

     

    “Broader public opinion” is entirely irrelevant in this case. The only people who should have a say are those living in the communities into which GMO mosquitos will be released. If people all over the nation are clamoring for this, finding a willing community shouldn’t be an issue.

    In Grand Cayman, the government is moving forward. In a few years, A. aegypti might be eliminated from an entire island, the first time such a thing has happened. Maybe that will lead to something unexpected, or maybe it won’t. In the Keys, some would rather take their chances with Zika than risk the unknown. “We are setting a standard for the rest of the world,” de Mier says. “Today it’s a mosquito, tomorrow God only knows what is going to happen.”

    Here’s the entire article: Florida’s Feud Over Zika-Fighting GMO Mosquitoes.

  • "I Listened To A Trump Supporter… Now I Understand"

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Bltizkrieg blog,

    The following article by David A Hill Jr is simply outstanding.

    Here are some powerful excerpts from the piece: I Listened to a Trump Supporter

    I talked at length with a Trump supporter I grew up around. I wanted to understand. I respected her growing up. I wanted to know why a person as kind and compassionate as I remember her is voting for someone like Donald Trump.

     

    She was a family friend, a good person. In rural Ohio, everything was tight. Money, jobs. If you really needed quick cash, she’d put you to work doing landscaping. She’d pay fairly and reliably for the area.

     

    She’s voting for Donald Trump. I disagree with her choice, but I understand why she rejects Clinton so fiercely, and why she’s been swept up in Donald Trump’s particular brand of right-wing populism. I feel that on the left, it’s increasingly easy to ignore these people, to disregard them, to write them off as racists, bigots, or uneducated. I think that’s a loss for everyone involved, and that sometimes listening can help you to at least understand why a person is making the choices they make, so you can work on the root causes. For her, the root cause isn’t racism. In fact, I remember her as one of the only people in the area who proudly hired black workers, in a place where that was a huge issue. She fought over that choice.

     

    But that’s enough background. Let me relay a bit of what she told me.

     

    She’s a person who built her business from the ground up. She wasn’t rich, but was very comfortable for the area. She had a nice house, a nice car, and was stable. She achieved the American dream of not having to struggle. Things changed during the housing crisis. A landscaping business requires customers who need landscaping, and people who don’t own homes just don’t need landscaping. In some of these neighborhoods, one in five people lost their homes. That almost immediately turns a successful landscaping business into a struggling one.

     

    Then there was a domino effect. She couldn’t pay for her lawn-care equipment leases and loans. That hurt her work efficiency. Then, she lost her car. But that didn’t stop the payments. Then, she lost her house. She slowly had to let go all of her employees, until it was just her, hand-mowing lawns for cash the way you might expect a high school student in the summertime.

     

    She told me that every week, it seemed there was another default letter, another foreclosure, another bank demanding more blood from her dry veins. To her, that pile of default notices and demands for payment looked suspiciously similar to Hillary Clinton’s top donor list.

     

    She lost everything she worked so hard for. Obama swore he was going to help. The Wall Street bailout did seem to help Wall Street. But it did absolutely nothing for her. She turns on the news and sees how the Dow Jones is doing better than ever. But that didn’t bring her house and livelihood back. Liberals insist that Obama’s made her life better. But, now she’s driving a car that falls apart randomly while having to pay those same banks for a car she doesn’t own and never will. It’s difficult to convince someone whose life is objectively worse that their life is better. And it’s disingenuous to try. You can break down the specifics, sure. But when someone’s hungry, and you’re busy silencing their complaints by telling them how well world hunger is improving, you’re just going to upset them.

     

    This is not a person who is stupid or racist. She knows Bush caused the economy collapse with his irresponsible tax policies and wars. But she saw liberals as fighting for the banks’ recovery, to hell with her needs. She sees in Hillary someone who celebrates that approach. Who measures US success by the success of multinational mega corporations?—?corporations who undercut and destroy local businesses. This is a person who grew up in a town with a friendly neighborhood general store, a locally-owned hardware store, farmers’ markets, florists, and auto shops. All of these businesses closed when Walmart moved into town. All their owners now work at that Walmart for a fraction of their previous wages, no benefits, and no hope for something better, something of their own. And now, she sees a free trade supporting former Walmart executive about to come in to office, and it feels like salt in her community’s wounds.

     

    This is a wounded person. Insulting her or continuing to hurt her isn’t going to help. She’s swept up in Trump’s message because she feels someone’s finally listening. Right-wing populism is an awful thing. But desperate people with their backs against the wall will grasp on to whatever they feel will bring a change. Neoliberal capitalism is not sustainable for these people.

     

    Over the past few years, she tried getting back in her business. But a corporation moved in and is operating far cheaper, using undocumented immigrant labor. I should note: She specifically said she doesn’t hold it against the migrant workers. As she said, “They’ve got to take whatever jobs they can get. Just like we do. It’s not their fault. They didn’t choose to make prices so low that legal businesses couldn’t compete.” She was literally a “job creator”. And she wasbeing priced out by the very people Donald Trump insists are pricing her out. That hurts everyone, and it adds an air of authenticity to what he says.

     

    I asked her if she supports Trump’s Mexico wall. She told me, “It doesn’t matter if I do. Hillary wants a wall, too. That wall’s gonna happen.” She wasn’t simply making this up. She’s heard this from many sources, Clinton being one of them. So to her, the idea of a border wall is a non-issue. I pressed her on the issue, and she said she thinks, “It’s a waste of money. If someone wants to cross the border, they’re gonna cross the border.”…

     

    A few times, she seemed ashamed of things Trump’s said or done. I’d ask her to unpack her feelings. She said he sometimes upsets her, but “If you wait and wait for a flawless candidate, you’ll never find one.” She said she’d be much prouder to vote for Trump if he’d tone down his rhetoric.

    This fits into my strongly held belief that people are looking for an excuse to vote for Trump. All he has to do to win is tone down some of his more heinous and idiotic tendencies.

    I talked to her a bit about Bernie Sanders, to see what she thought of him. She told me, “He seemed like a nice enough guy. But I didn’t pay him much mind because there was no way he was gonna beat Clinton.” I talked with her about his platform, his policy proposals. She lit up. She told me, “It’s a real shame he didn’t make it.” She told me that if she knew him, his record, and his proposals, she’d have voted for him. I said that since the primary concluded, Hillary’s shifted some to adopt policies similar to his, and I asked if that changed her mind. She told me, “It doesn’t matter what she says. It matters what she’s done.”

     

    No amount of insulting her from an ivory tower is going to change her mind. No amount of guffawing about her lack of education, her self-deception, her racism, or her internalized misogyny is going to change her mind. The only thing she’ll listen to is a promise of real change to the system that’s hurt her. If the Democratic Party can’t offer her a viable alternative, we’re going to see another neck-and-neck election in 2020, and in 2024, and in 2028.

     

    These people need a populist answer. They need someone willing to listen to their very real concerns, and offer solutions that don’t look like Band-Aids on bullet wounds. If they had that on the left, we wouldn’t even be discussing Ohio as a “swing state”.

     

    Right now, this is the discourse we’re seeing about Trump supporters. This only emboldens those attitudes. To people like her, this feels like the left is laughing at her for her unwillingness to get in line and support the things that have left her broke and broken.

    The above excerpts are not the entire piece. You should read the whole thing: I Listened to a Trump Supporter.

    The more deeply I think about this election, the more I agree that the above sentiments motivate Trump voters far more than feelings of racism or hate. As I noted in a piece published a few weeks ago, The Status Quo vs. Donald Trump:

    This isn’t about me. This is about the American voter, and the more time passes, the more I understand the motivations of the vast majority of Trump supporters. It isn’t xenophobia or racism, it’s a vote against the status quo and the way they’ve strip mined and destroyed this country. It’s a FU vote and a major gamble, but it’s not as irrational or hateful as you might think.

    This doesn’t mean that Trump won’t betray his supporters and prove to be the Republican version of Barack Obama, but it does mean that the dominant media narrative characterizing Trump supporters as a bunch of racist, uneducated brutes is pretty much just dishonest, elitist propaganda.

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Today’s News 6th October 2016

  • The New 'Too Big To Fail' – EU Proposes Taxpayer-Funded Derivatives System Bailout

    It would appear the powers-that-be have just stumbled on to the ugly fact that all the bailed-in depositor money in the world won't stop the novated, rehypothecated, collateral chain collapse contagion that Deutsche Bank's $40 trillion-plus derivatives book's Damocles sword hangs over the status quo. However, being the problem-solving types, the European technocrats have a 'fair-share' solution – back a derivative clearing-house with taxpayer money to solve the new too-biggest-to-fail problem "that no one saw coming."

    While the "rules" right nbow are that everyone from shareholders, bondholders, and depositors alike on up the capital structure are supposedly "bailed-in" to save an ailing bank, this problem is just way too big.

    Here's the problem… in 3 charts…

    Derivatives book – yuuge…

     

    Global contagion – yuuger…

     

    Counterparty risk – yuugest…

     

    And so, as Bloomberg reports, the dear old European taxpayer is about to save the world… The European Union plans to give authorities sweeping powers to tackle ailing derivatives clearinghouses to prevent their failure from wreaking havoc throughout the financial system.

    Draft EU legislation seen by Bloomberg sets out rules on saving or shuttering clearinghouses that would apply to firms such as London-based LCH. The proposals cover everything from the creation of resolution authorities to the powers they would have when winding a company down, including writing down shares, debt and collateral.

     

    Having forced most clearing to go through central counterparties to manage risk in the financial system, the EU will come out with recovery and resolution proposals by year-end.  Clearing has come into focus after emerging as a pawn in the post-Brexit battle for London’s financial-services industry.

     

    “If we are going to rely more on CCPs, we need to have a clear system in place to resolve them if things go wrong,” Valdis Dombrovskis, the EU’s financial-services chief, said last month.

    Governments around the world were spooked by the damage inflicted by derivatives trades that went awry during the financial crisis. Since then, they’ve taken steps to ensure trading in the contracts is reported and centrally cleared.

    Clearinghouses stand between the two sides of a derivative wager and hold collateral, known as margin, from both in case a member defaults.

    The plan’s upfront costs for clearinghouses “are estimated to be in the millions for the largest institutions and in the thousands for smaller entities,” according to the summary of an EU impact study.

     

    Costs for “better planning and prevention of failure” will vary by firms’ “size, interconnectedness, substitutability and complexity.”

     

    While the process is taking risk out of the banking system, it has increased it in the clearinghouses, which might get into difficulty after the default of a clearing member — typically a major bank — or after some operational failure that inflicted major losses.

     

    In both cases the authorities would need to act quickly and would be doing so amid a looming crisis.

    And here is the kicker… guess who foots the bill when the fecal matter really strikes the rotating object…

    “Should these options be unavailable or be demonstrably insufficient to safeguard financial stability, government participation in the shape of equity support or temporary public ownership could be considered as a last resort,” according to the proposal. Those steps would need to comply with EU rules on state aid.

    So the US DoJ decision to retaliate for EU's Apple decision has boomerang'd right back at the EU taxpayer – who ultimately will bailout the new too-biggest-to-fail entities.

    Italeave? Portugone? Fruckoff?

  • Trader: "If You Take Away QE's Greater Fools, You'll Get A Market Resembling The Pit Scene From Trading Places"

    By Richard Breslow, former FX trader and fund manager who writes for Bloomberg

    You Don’t Need a Taper to Price for the Event

    Yesterday’s article on potential ECB tapering of their quantitative easing activities was important – even if you discount or outright dismiss its likelihood. No one was prepared to fade the news on the day and the reverberations were far and wide. If you were a bond market, of any stripe, and open for business, you got sold.

    Investors are long global bonds and other bond-infected assets in outsized size, and not at all sure why, other than that central banks will keep buying and nothing will ever change again

    As QE gets long in the tooth, it has increasingly relied on the greater fool theory to maintain itself. Take that assumption away and you’ll get a market resembling the pit scene from “Trading Places”

    Rather than dismissing the news (or trial balloon) ask yourself what would happen to your portfolio if global yield curves began to normalize. Which doesn’t require outright tightening to happen. Something to at least consider when submitting your bids for the next super-longs. It takes a lot of rolling down to get home scot-free from a 50-year maturity at crisis yields

    It’s all been about greed in order to survive in this desperate grasping-for-yield world. But more and more serious investors are trying, largely in vain, to point out that survival in the future may require getting to the exit on time. Taking a mark-to-market hit on a negative yielding bond is a nasty shock investors aren’t used to. And certainly not prepared for

    There’s been an assumption that bond vigilantes were permanently run out of town when the new central bank sheriffs came to town. And that back-ups in yield were some form of anti-social behavior to be scorned. But some policy makers are coming around to realize that steeper yield curves just might be what we need right now. For a whole host of reasons. And reminders that that’s possible should be taken as gentle nudges to reconsider the concept of adding a dose of prudence to investing decisions

    “Don’t say no one warned you” will be heard along with the wailing of the those who just wouldn’t leave the dance floor.

    * * *

  • The Noose Is Tightening Quickly On The Global Economy

    Submitted by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    The investment world has an embarrassingly short attention span.  But frankly, it is a necessity.  If daytraders, hedge funds and other horses in the carousel actually had to look beyond the next week of market activity or study back on market history in comparison to today, then they would not be able to retain their blind optimism, which is exactly what is necessary for them to continue functioning.  If they were all to examine the global financial situation with any honesty, the entire facade would collapse tomorrow.

    At bottom, it is not central bank stimulus and intervention alone that drives equities and bond markets; it is the naive faith and willful ignorance of average market participants.  There is a problem with this kind of economic model, however.  Reality is never kept in check indefinitely.  Fiscal truths will be exposed, one way or another.

    How does one know when this full spectrum shift in awareness will occur?  Well, there’s no science that can help us with that.  While basic economics is subject to the forces of supply, demand and mathematical inevitability, it is also subject to human psychology, which is another matter entirely.

    In the past I have made a point to outline similarities in responses to various economic crises.  For example, the media response and public perception at the onset of the Great Depression was a highly unfortunate exercise in false optimism.  The response just before the credit crash of 2008 by the media and the masses was much the same.  It is interesting to note in particular that the mainstream media tends to become more over-the-top in its certainty of economic stability the closer the system comes to collapse.  That is to say, the nearer we edge towards financial calamity, the more violently the mainstream media attacks people who suggest that danger is on the horizon.

    First, take a look at the following attempts by the media to embarrass or silence analysts like Peter Schiff just before the crash of 2007/2008:

    Now, watch this attempt by CNBC to attack Bill Fleckenstein for having the audacity to question the validity of current stock values and pointing out that the Federal Reserve is destroying the economy rather than repairing it:

    Notice any striking similarities between the mainstream rhetoric of 2006/2007 and the mainstream rhetoric of today?  Notice how emotionally aggressive and almost desperate the media becomes when maintaining market faith, rather than looking at the situation objectively as the fundamentals begin to overwhelm investor complacency?

    To be clear, while mainstream economists are almost always wrong, independent analysts are not prophets.  We usually cannot provide the exact timing for the economic shifts we see coming.  All we can do is provide a general window in which the events are likely to take place.  Peter Schiff’s predictions on how the housing bubble and the credit crisis would play out were absolutely correct, even though he was about six months to eight months off his timing.  Again, this is not an exact science, and human psychology has the ability to offset market fundamentals for months.

    The supposed “catalyst” for the 2008 crash is primarily attributed to the fall of Lehman Brothers.  I highly recommend any of the “bullish” economists out there arguing today that the central banks intend to prolong a stock rally indefinitely examine the statements made in the mainstream about Lehman and by Lehman leading up to their eventual death rattle.  Then, absorb and really think on some of the recent statements and tactics used by Germany’s Deutsche Bank.

    Specifically, note Lehman’s use of accounting and derivatives gimmicks and the cycling of funds through various accounts in order to make the company appear solvent.  Then, take a look at revelations coming out of places like Italy that Deutsche Bank has been using the same model of false accounts and market manipulation, once again, with derivatives as a main tool for fraud.

    Also notice the same outright dismissals of all pertinent evidence that Deutsche Bank might be suffering a capital shortfall, as Chief Executive John Cryan blames “speculators” for the companies losses.  Lehman’s Dick Fuld and Bear Stearns’ Jimmy Cain both blamed “speculators” and “rumors and conspiracies” for the fall of their companies during the derivatives debacle eight years ago.  It would seem that history doesn’t just rhyme, it sometimes repeats exactly.

    Below is a rather revealing chart from the folks at Zero Hedge comparing the collapse of Lehman Brothers stock value to the steady decline of Deutsche Bank.  Check it out:

    Financial graph

    To be clear, Lehman was no catalyst.  It was only a litmus test for a system completely devoid of tangible value and drowning in toxic debt.  Lehman was a part of a much larger problem, it was not the cause of the problem.  The same is true for Deutsche Bank.

    The panic growing around Germany’s second largest financial institution, Commerzbank, as it moves to lay off nearly 10,000 employees and suspend its dividend is another crisis indicator separate from Deutsche Bank.  The clear solvency issues in Italy’s major banks, including Monte dei Paschi, are yet another explosive element.

    Keep in mind that when these edifices begin to crumble and Europe enters a state of financial emergency, the mainstream media and numerous governments will continue to blame speculators.  They will also claim that the entire disaster was set in motion through a “domino effect”; the first domino probably being Deutsche Bank.  This will be a lie.  There is no line of dominoes.  One bank will not be bringing down the other banks — yes, there is terrible interdependency, but the real issue is that ALL of these banks are falling due to their own cancerous behaviors.  The very system they are built around is a corrupt and unsustainable model, and I hold that this is by design.

    International financiers do not want the general public to look at the validity of the system, they want the public to view collapse events as an oversimplified case of cause and effect.

    If the public were to understand that the global banking model is a destructive one (for the public, not for the elites), then they might demand the erasure of the model and its institutions entirely.  The elites don’t want that.  What they want is to be free to conjure crisis after crisis after crisis; to have the option to collapse the system only to replace it with something identical in nature but even more oppressive in its function.  They want to create chaos today so that greater centralization can be purchased in the future through mass fear.

    I continue to maintain as I always have that central banks around the world are shifting strategies and will do very little to intervene from this point on in the propping up of insolvent banking groups or equities markets.  It is very unlikely that Germany or the European Central Bank, for example, will move to infuse Deutsch Bank with capital (at least, not until the damage has already been done).  It is also unlikely that any central bank will move to openly stimulate markets until an equities crash has run its course.  In fact, some central banks including the Federal Reserve may act to expedite a stock crash — watch for this to occur if Donald Trump attains the White House.

    This has all happened before.  It happened in 2008 when the Federal Reserve stepped back and allowed Lehman Brothers to go bankrupt.  It will probably happen again when the German government and the ECB refuse to back Deutsche BankThe noose is tightening on the global economy and, once again, the mainstream media is too biased or too dumb to see it.  They’ll accuse the alternative media of crying “doom and gloom,” and perhaps our timing will be off.  But exact timing will not really matter once the house of cards begins to topple.  If we stick to our positions and refuse to be intimidated by rhetoric, the time will come when people will only remember that we were right for the most part and that the mainstream media was incompetent or dishonest.

    In the meantime, we have a whole swarm of other trigger events before the end of the year.  I predicted in my article The World Is Turning Ugly As 2016 Winds Down that the Saudi 9/11 bill might be vetoed by Obama and that the veto would be overturned by the Senate.  This has now taken place, which means increased Saudi tensions with the U.S. resulting in the eventual demise of the dollar’s petro-currency status. Watch the coming Italian constitutional referendum which could pave the way for conservative movements to initiate an Italian version of the Brexit.  Also keep an eye on Syria yet again as diplomatic conflict flares between the U.S. and Russia (gee, who didn’t see that coming?).  And, of course, the U.S. presidential election which appears to be culminating into the most divisive political event in America in decades.

    Ignore the delusional positivism of the mainstream media and a large part of the equities trading community.  Their fantasies only grow more elaborate the closer we get to a market heart attack.  And remember, economic collapse is a process, not an overnight affair.  The progression of global decline should be apparent to anyone paying attention since 2008.  The only question is, when will the average citizen become aware?  My feeling according to current trends is, very soon.

  • Distillates Need a Cold Winter given the Supply Overhang (Video)

    By EconMatters


    Year over year the Distillate numbers from production, demand and supply appear the weakest in the Petroleum complex. A mild winter will be a headwind for Distillate prices in 2017 given current supply levels.

    © EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle   

  • Chaffetz Blasts DOJ On "Side Agreements" That Effectively Prohibited FBI From Proving Intent

    Two days ago the Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, Bob Goodlatte (R-Virginia), wrote a letter to AG Lynch that, for the first time, revealed that the FBI apparently struck “side agreements” with both Cheryl Mills an Heather Samuelson to, among other things, “destroy” their “laptops after concluding their search” (see “FBI Allowed 2 Hillary Aides To “Destroy” Their Laptops In Newly Exposed ‘Side Agreements’“). 

    Today, Jason Chaffetz, Chair of the House Oversight Committee, sent a follow-up letter requesting additional information and blasting the investigative process in which the “FBI inexplicably agreed to destroy the laptops knowing that the contents were the subject of Congressional subpoenas and preservation letters.” 

    But, perhaps the most startling takeaway from the Chaffetz letter is that limitations imposed by “side agreements” with Mills and Samuelson strictly prohibited the FBI from investigating the “intent” of Hillary’s staff to obstruct justice and/or destroy evidence subject to a Congressional subpoena.  As pointed out by Chaffetz, the “side agreements” allowed the FBI to only review emails between 6/1/14 through 2/1/15 and only those sent/received by one of Clinton’s four email addresses used during her tenure as Secretary of State

    Even more disturbing, Chaffetz points out that the FBI agreed to the “side agreements” in June 2016 at which point they were already aware that Combetta deleted Hillary’s emails using Bleachbit on 3/31/15 after a conference call with Cheryl Mills and Hillary attorney, David Kendall.  That said, the restrictions imposed by the “side agreements” strictly prohibited the FBI from reviewing Mills’ emails during that period which could have spoken to her intent to destroy evidence.

    Chaffetz Letter

     

    But, as always, we’re sure the DOJ and FBI will promptly clarify all of these new questions in a completely open and transparent way.

     

    Link to letter here.

  • "Heaven Help Us If There Is Ever A Modest Blip Of An Inflation Impulse"

    By Charlie McElligott, head of cross-asset desk strategy at RBC

    Despite the weakest Euro area Composite PMI since January ’15, periphery and core EGB’s are too seeing weakness, with traders noting not just the “tapering” story, but also Target 2 balance data, which is showing Italian and Spanish liabilities at 3+ year highs against German claims (2nd highest reading since 2008).  All-in-all, just the hypothetical mention of “tapering” speaks to the extent of speculative positioning in the periphery govies, with the seemingly lazy 3-day move lower in IKA (Italian BTP futures) actually being a 2.1 standard deviation event (against the returns of the past year).  To my points made for years now on risk-parity, risk-control / vol-targeting and leveraged ETPs, it’s the cost of “shadow short convexity” in the market place (as the strategies increase or decrease their exposure based on CB-repressed historical volatility), which now “more frequently than ever” smashes asset prices with stiff jolts of volatility “true-ups,” on account of their mechanical and unemotional rebalancing (and after a couple days…“back to normal” we go, as if nothing happened–this is your market structure).

    The BoJ kicked this party off in September with their “curve steepening” discussion (since put “into motion” under the guise of “curve control / yield targeting policy”).  As I have stated since over a week before the BoJ meeting, any curve-steeping operation could in fact be interpreted by the market as a QE taper, because 1) the BoJ is then by definition buying fewer bonds past 10 years against buying more in the belly—despite running out of bonds to buy there (!), and 2) potentially in a position where to stay true to their new policy, the BoJ could turn a NET SELLER of bonds when 10Y yields turn more negative!!!  As such, the global long-end sold off, triggering the aforementioned systematic fund de-leveraging which spilled-over across most every asset-class (except for US Investment Grade, which in the words of country-great Travis Tritt continues to act “10 feet tall and bullet-proof” ->  How’s that for showing my Ohio roots).  

    This latest version emanating off the Bloomberg story got a bit too much “headline” action, where the story itself spoke to a likely extension of the current ECB bond-buying program before “running out of Bunds” come-March.  The market is positioned for this extension / “perpetuation of the status-quo”…although they also were in September, when it never came up in the ECB meeting.  All eyes consensually see it coming in December now, yet some folks we speak to (who are close to the situation) indicate that the ECB is very closely watching the BoJ and the “market interpretation” of their current “stall tactics” being exhibited (in the form of this “curve control” snowball, against their longer-term “NEED” to go further NIRP-ier…which requires consensus building domestically and abroad on account of the negative implications for banks, pensions, insurance and corp balance sheets / capex investment).   Everybody is trying to buy-time…but at the end of the day, “extend and pretend” is the name of the gameFWIW, I personally believe this was a “shot across the bow” by Draghi to the ECB’s General Council (zee Germans) that “more needs to be done…free us from your shackles…or else you are gonna have blood on your hands.” 

    It is SO tired, but let’s face it: when even the limpest “trial balloon” discussion of the ECB’s hypothetical, WAY down-the-road discussion of how to end their QE program (we could be talking 2020 here people) creates yet another “Mini-Taper Tantrum,” we have to be intellectually honest with ourselves (as do CBers) and acknowledge the incredible degree to which the current monpol framework has distorted prices / valuations / market structure.  All assets are hooked on stimulus, and yet CB’s refuse to take the pain of allowing actual price-discovery.  A “winnowing-out” of the excess leverage and weak-handed lazy positioning would allow for a return to a greatly-desired / more-functional capital-market, and with it, the “business cycle,” which would benefit the real economy for the “greater good.”

    Ultimately, this is another “crack in the façade” of the QE monpol regime, buckling-further under its own weight.  In both the case of the BoJ and the ECB, they are acknowledging that they have little-choice but to move to “yield targeting” due to said curve and market distortions as again, both are running out of bonds to buy. 

    And with that, so too wanes the market’s believe in the omniscience of the current framework (although yes, CB’s without a doubt can still “escalate” via debt monetization / “helicopter money”…but nobody has yet shown resolve to go ‘nuclear’ without a true crisis), especially as their policies only further set-the-table for volatility explosions—as they force “real money” to get “even long-er” of duration through their yield compression madness.  Heaven help us if there is ever a modest blip of an inflation impulse.  Caveat emptor.

    * * *

    CONTEXT OF THE OVERSEAS IMPACT ON UST CURVES FROM ‘JAPAN-TRUM’ AND NEWEST ‘ECB-MINI-TANTRUM’:

  • Florida Faces "Biggest Evacuation Ever" As Hurricane Matthew Looms

    Things in Florida just went to '11' as, following his declaration of a state of emergency, the governor warned the state could be facing its “biggest evacuation ever.”

     

    As CBS local news reports,

    Gov. Rick Scott said he didn’t know how many people would be ordered to leave the coastline because it is left up to individual counties. So far, only Brevard and Martin counties have issued mandatory evacuation orders.

     

    “When you look at this storm as it goes along the East Coast, we’re going to have to prepare every county, so it could be the biggest evacuation ever. Every county is focused on it though. We’ve been working on it even before today,” Scott said.

     

    Scott said the state is preparing for the worst and hoping for the best, 1010 WINS’ Steve Kastenbaum reported.

     

    Matthew was a dangerous and life-threatening Category 3 storm with sustained winds of 120 mph, and it was expected to be very near Florida’s Atlantic coast by Thursday evening. It could become the first major hurricane to blow ashore in the U.S. since Wilma slashed across Florida in 2005.

    As The Weather Channel reports,

    "I cannot emphasize enough that everyone in our state must prepare now for a direct hit," Gov. Rick Scott said in a Wednesday press conference. "If Matthew directly impacts Florida, there will be massive destruction that we haven’t seen in years. This is a deadly storm approaching our state."

     

    The stern warnings came from everywhere – especially weather forecasters.

     

    "Extremely dangerous and life-threatening wind is possible," wrote the National Weather Service's Melbourne office in a forecast discussion. "Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury, loss of life or immense human suffering."

    There is even a chance that the deadly Hurricane could loop back and strike Florida twice…

     

    Meanwhile, Hurricane Matthew has already claimed it's first casualty in South Carolina as a man apparently decided to lead police directing evacuation traffic on a wild chase and then open fire on them.  According to CNN, officers were forced to return fire and wounded the man who's condition is unknown at this time.

     

    *  *  *

    As we detailed earlier, residents in the projected path of the deadly Hurricane Matthew have started preparing for the worst as east-coast governors from Florida all the way to North Carolina have all declared states of emergency.  Efforts to prepare for the deadly storm have resulted in massive gas lines and empty store shelves as residents either get out of town or bulk up on supplies to ride out the storm.

    Hurricane Matthew has battered the Caribbean over the past two days as a massive category 4 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph, claiming at least 17 lives in Haiti and Cuba.  According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Matthew was downgraded to a category 3 storm early this morning with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph but meteorologists warned the hurricane was likely to strengthen again in the coming days.

    Per Reuters, the U.N. has declared Hurricane Matthew the biggest natural disaster to strike Haiti since the devastating earthquake six years ago after it destroyed close to 1,000 homes and left up to 10,000 people in shelters.

    Authorities said on Wednesday five people in Haiti were crushed by trees and six were swept away by swollen rivers.

     

    "More than 1,000 homes have been damaged or destroyed by the flood waters and violent winds," said Ernst Ais, the mayor of the town of Cavaillon, near Les Cayes. He said a mother and three children died in floodwaters in his town.

     

    Three men were killed in Leogane, near Port-au-Prince, when a coconut palm fell on their home, the mayor there said.

     

    Mourad Wahba, the U.N. secretary-general's deputy special representative for Haiti, said much of the population had been displaced by Matthew and at least 10,000 were in shelter.

     

    "Haiti is facing the largest humanitarian event witnessed since the earthquake six years ago," he said.

    Per the NHC, the latest forecast calls for Hurricane Matthew to make landfall in Florida as a "Major Hurricane" with maximum sustained winds of at least 110 mph late Thursday evening or early Friday morning.  The storm is then expected to turn toward the northeast following right along the eastern seaboard all the way to North Carolina. 

    Hurricane Matthew

     

    Parts of Florida are expected to receive up to 10 inches of rain which can fluctuate substantially depending upon the ultimate path of the storm.  Meanwhile, Barclays analyst, Jay Gelb, warned that Hurricane Matthew may be among the top five worst U.S. hurricanes in history and has the potential to “wipe out” about a quarter’s worth of earnings for re-insurers.

     

    Governor Nikki Haley of South Carolina has already closed schools and order evacuations of anyone within 100 miles of the coast as deadly winds and 5-7 foot storm surges are expected. 

     

    Meanwhile, gas lines have backed up all over the east coast as people prepare to get out of town or simply stock up on fuel for generators.  Per NBC, gas stations across South Carolina are already running out of gas.

    But that’s not been so easy for some on Hilton Head.

     

    “We were at a station for 30 minutes and just as we pulled in they ran out of gas,” Montgomery said.

     

    “We got in line and by the time we got up to the pump it was out of gas,” Orr said. “A lady came out to let everybody know that they was out of gas.”

     

    And that’s a big concern for nearly everyone on the island.

     

    “They should’ve been prepared for us,” Orr said. “They knew that it was coming so they should’ve had enough gas.”

    And any station with remaining supplies are experiencing huge lines of antsy customers.

     

     

    Apparently the situation became so severe in Mount Pleasant, SC that the police department had to remind residents that "a gas station running out of gas" wasn't a valid reason to call 911.

     

    Traffic along the South Carolina hurricane evacuation route was at a standstill early this morning.

     

    Meanwhile, home improvement stores and grocery stores are running out of vital supplies like plywood and water as some residents prepare to ride out the storm from home.

     

     

     

     

  • Elizabeth Holmes To Shut Theranos' Core Operations, Fire 40% Of Workers

    The death of Theranos has been long coming ever since the WSJ' John Carreyrou did a phenomenal job, starting about one year ago, of exposing the fraud that is Clinton Global Initiative-darling Elizabeth Holmes, but as of this evening it is largely official. In an "open letter" just posted on the company's website, Holmes said Theranos would shut down its blood-testing clinical labs and fire 340 of approximately 790 full time employees, roughly 40% of its entire workforce.

    As the WSJ, whose story this has been from day one writes, "the moves mark a dramatic retreat by the Palo Alto company and founder Elizabeth Holmes from their core strategy of offering a long menu of low-price blood tests directly to consumers. Those ambitions already were endangered by crippling regulatory sanctions that followed revelations by The Wall Street Journal of shortcomings in Theranos’s technology and operations."

    Still, while Theranos' official closure, and still long-overdue criminal raid, should have taken place long ago (we wonder if Holmes' proximity to the Clinton Foundation may be a mitigating factor) in a testament to just how much dumb money there really is, the company will still continue to operate, even if under a severely scaled down, "post-pivot" business model. As Holmes writes, "we will return our undivided attention to our miniLab platform.  Our ultimate goal is to commercialize miniaturized, automated laboratories capable of small-volume sample testing, with an emphasis on vulnerable patient populations, including oncology, pediatrics, and intensive care."

    Holmes announced in August a new blood-testing device called miniLab, which is about the size of a printer but hasn’t been approved by regulators. The shutdowns and layoffs could help the closely held company minimize its cash burn in its attempt to accelerate the development of products that could be sold to outside laboratories, although it is unclear who would want to buy them.

    Her full – and perhaps final – letter is below:

    For our stakeholders,

     

    After many months spent assessing our strengths and addressing our weaknesses, we have moved to structure our company around the model best aligned with our core values and mission.

     

    We have decided to close our clinical labs and Theranos Wellness Centers, which will impact approximately 340 employees in Arizona, California, and Pennsylvania.  We are profoundly grateful to these team members, many of whom have devoted years to Theranos and our mission, for their commitment to our company and our guests.

     

    We will return our undivided attention to our miniLab platform.  Our ultimate goal is to commercialize miniaturized, automated laboratories capable of small-volume sample testing, with an emphasis on vulnerable patient populations, including oncology, pediatrics, and intensive care.

     

    We have a new executive team leading our work toward obtaining FDA clearances, building commercial partnerships, and pursuing publications in scientific journals.

     

    We are fortunate to have supporters and investors who believe deeply in our mission of affordable, less invasive lab testing, and to have the runway to realize our vision.

     

    I look forward to sharing more with you as we progress along the way.

     

    Sincerely,

     

    Elizabeth Holmes

    According to the WSJ, a retreat from the strategy that won the company a valuation of $9 billion in 2014 could make it less complicated for Ms. Holmes, to keep running Theranos as chief executive if the a ban sought by regulators to prevent her from owning any lab for two years is imposed. She also controls a majority voting stake in the company and can’t be easily removed from her position, according to people familiar with the matter.

    As for the new product, we doubt it will get a billion, or even a million dollar valuation: "The miniLab was unveiled at a conference of lab scientists, and Ms. Holmes said it could run accurate tests from a few drops of blood. Theranos sought emergency clearance of Zika-virus blood test but then withdrew its request after federal regulators found that the company didn’t include proper patient safeguards in a study of the new test."

    Oops.

    But while Holmes downfall, while fascinating, was predictable the far bigger question is how she managed to get to the top in the first place. The answer: a relent barrage of sycophants, paving her way from day one, instead of asking probing questions for some reason we hope to uncover one day. Here is a sample of everyone in the press who probably should be fired, courtesy of Bruce Quinn.

    August 30, 2013
    "Theranos: The Biggest Biotech You've Never Heard of."
    San Francisco Business Times. By Ron Leuty.  Here.

    September 8, 2013
    "Elizabeth Holmes: The Breakthrough of Instant Diagnosis."  

    The pivotal Wall Street Journal article, by Joseph Rago.  Here
    A Stanford dropout is bidding to make tests more accurate, less painful – and at a fraction of the current price.
     
    September 9, 2013
    "Secretive Theranos emerging partly from shadows."
    SF BizJournal, SF/Biotech, by Ron Leuty, subtitled, "The biggest biotech you've never heard of." Here

    October 9, 2013
    "Just a Drop Will Do."
    Pediatric News. By William Wilkoff.  Here.

     
    November 6, 2013
    "What Heath Care Needs is a Real Time Snapshot of You."
    WIRED, By Daniela Hernandez.  Here.

    November 13, 2013.
    "One Small Ow-eee."
    PediaBlog.  By Ned Ketyer MD.  Here.

    November 18, 2013
    "Creative disruption?  She's 29 and Set to Reboot Lab Medicine."

    MedPageToday.  By Eric Topol.  Here.
     
    February 18, 2014
    "This Woman Invented a Way to Run 30 Lab Tests on Only One Drop of Blood."
    WIRED again, by Caitlin Roper.  Here.  WIRED revisits Holmes, with an interview.
     
    February 28, 2014
    "Stanford Dropout Revolutionizes Blood Tests"
    Take Part, by Liana Aghajanian.  Here.  
     
    June, 2014
    Hematology Reports (Open Access Journal).  Full article PDF: Here.
    Chan SM, Chadwick J, Young DL, Holmes E, & Gotlib J (2014).  Intensive serial biomarker profiling for the prediction of neutropenic fever with hematologic malignancies undergoing therapy: a pilot study.  Hematology Reports 6(2).  
    Pubmed Central, here
     
    June 12, 2014
    "This CEO is Out for Blood."
    Fortune, by Roger Parloff.   Here.  Featured as cover story (picture).
     
    June 17, 2014
    "Elizabeth Holmes, Who Wants To Shake Up The Blood Testing Industry, Is A Billionaire At 30."
    Forbes [blog], by – Zina Moukheiber.  Here.
     
    July 2, 2014
    "Bloody Amazing."
    Forbes [blog 7/2, and Issue, 7/21], by Mathew Herper.  Here.
     
    June 3, 2014
    US Patent: "Systems and Methods of Sample Processing and Fluid Control in a Fluidic System."
    PDF, Patent 8,742,230 B2, 80 pp..  Here.
    "This invention is in the field of medical devices…portable medical devices that allow real-tie detection of analytes from a biological fluid…for providing point-of-care testing for a variety of medical applications."
     
    June 20, 2014
    "Theranos: Small Sample, Big Opportunity."
    Decibio [Consultancy blog].  By Eric Lakin.  Here.
     
    July 8, 2014
    "Nanotainer Revolutionizes Blood Testing." VIDEO
    USA TODAY.   Here.
     
    July 15, 2014
    "Meet Elizabeth Holmes, Silicon Valley's Latest Phenomenon"
    San Jose Mercury News, by Michelle Quinn.   Here.
     
    July 15, 2014
    "Theranos bringing 500 new jobs to Scottsdale's SkySong."
    Phoenix Business Journal.  By Angela Gonzales.   Here.  [SkySong is an ASU-affiliated tech park].
     
    July 21, 2014
    "Meet Elizabeth Holmes, the Youngest Female Self-made Billionaire Changing the World with Medical Technology."
    Women's ILAB, by Katherine Melescuic.  Here.
     
    August 11, 2014
    "Ignoring Lab Industry, Theranos Goes Its Way."
    "My Visit to Walgreens for Theranos Lab Tests." DARK REPORT (Paper by subscription only).  Table of contents here.
     
    September 8, 2014
    TechCrunch / Youtube Interview with John Sheiber.  VIDEO.
    Here.,For further details, see here.
     
    September 8, 2014
    "Elizabeth Holmes takes Theranos' blood test to tech movers, shakers."
    Biotech SF / Bizjournals – by Ron Leuty.  Discussion of TechCrunch presentation.  Here.
     
    September 29, 2014
    "This Woman's Revolutionary Idea Made Her A Billionaire — And Could Change Medicine."
    Business Insider.  By Kevin Loria.  Here.  See also June 4, 2015.
     
    September 30, 2014
    "Queen Elizabeth: Mystique of Theranos founder grows with Forbes' richest ranking."
    Biotech SF / Bizjournals – by Ron Leuty.   Here.
    October, 2014
    "Health Plans Deploy New Systems to Control Use of Lab Tests."
    Managed Care.  By Joseph Burns.  Here.
    Does not directly cite Theranos.  Cites contrasting viewpoints on the value of direct easy inexpensive test access:

    October 1, 2014

    "How One Entrepreneur is Transforming Blood Testing."
    Slate – by Kevin Loria.  Here.  [Reprint from Business Insider, 9/29, above.]

    October 16, 2014
    "She's America's Youngest Female Billionaire – And a Dropout."
    by Rachel Crane. CNN/Money.  Here.  [Text & Video.]

    October 27, 2014
    "Theranos Due Diligence: Company Profile, SWOT Analysis, Market Opportunity."
    Decibio.  Consulting group profile of Theranos and its valuation and market position (73 pages; $850).  Here.  Table of Contents, here.  Additional description here

     
    November 7, 2014
    TEDMED – Youtube – Elizabeth Holmes at TEDMED.  VIDEO.
    Here.,For further details, see here.

    November 7, 2014
    "Major Upside for Walgreens Stock"
    InvestorPlace.  By John Divine.  Here.
    "The single biggest catalyst for WAG stock in the future may be the company’s decision to partner with the privately held health-tech firm Theranos."

     
    December 8, 2014
    Fortune/Youtube – Theranos Billionaire Founder Talks Growth. VIDEO.

    Video interview with Pattie Sellers.  Here.
    For further details, see here.

    December 8, 2014
    "Here's How the World's Youngest Self-Made Female Billionaire Shows People She's In Charge."
    Business Insider.  By Richard Feloni.  Here.

    December 8, 2014
    "The New Yorker on the Promise, the Secrecy, and the Challenges of Super-Startup Theranos."
    MedCityNews.  by Meghana Keshavan.  Here.

    December 12, 2014
    "Behind the Curtain at Theranos."
    NBC News. (Video).  Interview with Ken Auletta.  Here.
    For more detail, see here.

    December 14, 2014
    "Blood Test Innovation: Less Cost, No Big Needle"
    Information Week/Healthcare.  By Larry Stofko.  Here.

    January 28, 2015
    "Elizabeth Holmes, Theranos: Transforming Healthcare by Embracing Failure."
    Youtube.  Stanford Graduate School of Business.  Here.
     
    February, 2015
    "Top 10 Most Innovative Companies in Health Care, 2015: #7, Theranos"
    Fast Company (staff), here.
    February, 2015
    "Vetting Theranos"
    Laboratory Economics [trade journal, subscription].  By JonDavid Kipp.  Here.
    February 2, 2015.
    "CEO Q&A: Craig Hall."
    Real Estate Daily.  By Christina Perez.  Hall was early investor in Theranos.  Here.
     
    February 3, 2015
    "Breakthrough Branding: Theranos, with Walgreens, Revolutionizes Healthcare."
    Brand Channel.  By Sheila Shayon.  Here.
     
    February 3, 2015
    "Will Theranos Turn the Lab Industry Upside Down?"
    Market Financial Analysis.  Here and here.  Order here ($99).
     
    February 6, 2015
    "Ten Things to Know about America's Youngest Female Billionaire."
    Business Insider.  By Koa Beck.  Here.
     
    February 5, 2015
    "Disruptive Technology Main Focus at Clinton Health Conference."
    California Healthline.  By Lauren McSherry. Here.
    President Clinton, Fourth Annual Health Matters Activation Summit.  "Access to health information is a basic human right," said Elizabeth Holmes, a young Silicon Valley entrepreneur who founded Theranos, a blood analytics and diagnostics company. [President] Clinton, who applauded her work to provide low-cost testing to the general public, said the company is valued at $9 billion.  See also at Clinton Foundation.org, here.
     
    February 10, 2015
    "Elizabeth Holmes – Theranos"
    Upstart.  By Teresa Novellino.  Here.
     
    February 10, 2015
    "Theranos CEO: Avoid Backup Plans."
    INC (from Stanford Business School.)  By Deborah Peterson.  Here.
    "I think that the minute that you have a backup plan, you've admitted that you're not going to succeed."
     
    February 17, 2015
    "Stealth Research: Is Biomedical Innovation Happening Outside the Peer-reviewed Literature?"
    JAMA.  By John P.A. Ionnanidis.  Here.
    "Theranos is just one example among many for which major efforts and major claims about biomedical progress seem to be happening outside the peer-reviewed scientific literature…stealth research creates total ambiguity about what evidence can be trusted in a mix of possibly brilliant ideas, aggressive corporate announcements, and mass media hype."   See comment at Healthnewsreview.org here (February 23, 2015).
    February 27, 2015
    "Tech company Theranos pushes consumer lab-testing bill."
    Arizona Republic.  By Ken Tucker.  Here.
    For legislative text, here.  For a blog on the topic, here.  For cloud version of the legislative text, here.  Article in March 2015 Laboratory Economics [subscription, here.]
     
    February, 2015
    "Theranos: Blood Tests that Need Just a Tiny Sample."
    Walgreens website, "At the Corner of Happy and Healthy," accessed 2/17/2015.  Here.
     
    March, 2015
    "Secret Shoppers Disappointed by Theranos."
    Laboratory Economics.   By Jondavid Klipp.  Here (subscription).
    Summarizes experiences of "secret shoppers" from Piper Jaffray, an Arizona lab, The Dark Report, and a California lab.  Most reported 3-day results and many reported standard venipuncture.
     
    March 2, 2015
    "Meet the Most Impressive Woman on Forbes' Female Billionaire List."
    Identities.Mic.  March 2, 2015.  By Julie Zeilinger.    Here.
    March 5, 2015
    "Millennials and Money: New Kids in the Forbes Billionaires Club."
    National Center for Business Journalism.  By Rian Bosse.  Elizabeth Holmes noted.  Here.
     
    March 6, 2015
    "Theranos Files Comment In Support Of Food and Drug Administration Oversight Of Laboratory-Developed Tests."
    Theranos Press Release.  Here.
    The comment letter, dated 3/1/2015, 4 pages, here.
     
    March 7, 2015.  
    "Health care in America: Shock treatment. A wasteful and inefficient industry is in the throes of great disruption."
    The Economist.  Theranos mentioned.  Here.  Also here.
    March 9, 2015
    "Theranos and Cleveland Clinic Announce Strategic Alliance to Improve Patient Care through Innovation in Testing."
    Press release.  Here.
     
    March 9, 2015
    "Cleveland Clinic Taps Theranos, Bets on Cheaper Diagnostics."
    Healthcare Finance News.  Anthony Brio.  Here.
     
    March 9, 2015.
    Fox News Cleveland Clinic/Theranos Interview.  VIDEO.
    Fox News Online.  Here.  Additional notes, here.
     
    March 9, 2015
    "Cleveland Clinic Enters 'Long-Term Strategic Alliance' with Theranos, Inc."
    Crain's Cleveland Business.  By Timothy Magaw.  Here.
     
    March 9, 2015
    "Elizabeth Holmes:  2015 Horatio Alger Award Winner."
    Horatio Alger Association.  Webpage,  here.  Press release, here.
     
    March 13, 2015
    "Theranos Seeks FDA Approval for Early-detection Ebola Test: George Schultz."
    Silicon Valley Business Journal.  By Ben Soriano.  Here.
     
    March 17, 2015
    "Mark Cuban Talks Healthcare Investing: Soon Our Bodies Will Be Big Math Equations."
    MedCity News.  By Stephanie Baum.  Here.
    “Sensors are the next opportunity,” Cuban said. He also voiced his enthusiasm for companies like 23andMe and Theranos.
     
    March 23, 2015
    "Boies Schiller Set to Open Palo Alto Outpost."
    The Recorder.  By Patience Haggin.  Here.
    April 7, 2015
    "Patients Can Soon Get Lab Tests Without Doctors' Orders."
    Arizona Republic.  By Yvonne Wingett Sanchez & Ken Alltucker.  Here.
     
    April 8, 2015
    "Theranos One Step Closer to Consumerizing Health."
    Decibio [Blog].  By Eric Lakin.  Here.  [Arizona consumer test law.]
     
    April 9, 2015
    "Arizona Health Law Could Boost Theranos' Biotech Prospects."
    USA Today [America's Markets].  By Marco Della Cava.  Here.
     
    April 16, 2015
    "Elizabeth Holmes."
    TIME [100 Most Influential People.]  By Henry Kissinger.  Here.
     
    April 17, 2015.
    "How Elizabeth Holmes became inspired to transform blood testing." VIDEO
    CBS News This Morning.   Here.  Also here,  here.  More here.
     
    April 20, 2015
    "The Doctor is Out: LabCorp to Let Consumers Order Own Tests."
    Bloomberg.  By Cynthia Koons.  Here., Also: In slightly different version, same author, Bloomberg Business Week, 4/27/15.
    April 20, 2015
    "What News at Theranos?  Lab Firm Expands in AZ."
    "In Arizona, New Consumer Direct Access Law is a First Win for California-Based Theranos."
    "Theranos: Many Questions, but Very Few Answers."
    Dark Report (subscription).  Here.
     
    April 27, 2015

    "World's Youngest Billionaire – Another Steve Jobs?"
    CNBC.  By Abigail Stevenson.  Here.
     
    April 27, 2015
    "Occam's Razor and the Secrecy of Theranos.  A Bunch of Crock?  No."
    Medcitynews.   By Meghana Keshavan.  Here.
     
    April 28, 2015
    "Guest List, State Dinner, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan."
    Washington Post.  Here.  (Including Ms. Holmes.)
    May 5, 2015
    "Theranos Sticks It to Critics, Plans Expansion of Lab Services."
    San Francisco Business Times.  By Ron Leuty.  Here.

    "Can Theranos Disrupt the Clinical Lab Testing Market?  An Objective Look at Advantages, Liabilities, and Challenges That Must Be Addressed."
    [Pathology] Executive War College.  By Dr. Robert Boorstein. [Deck]  Here.

     
    May 7, 2015
    "Theranos Jump Starts Consumer Lab Testing."
    Fortune.  By Ron Parloff.  Here.
    "My last routine blood tests, drawn at my physician’s office…cost me $433 out of pocket, even after application of my “gold”-level insurance….Had I not been insured, the lab’s price for those tests would have been $2,411, according to the explanation of benefits sent me. The same tests, according to Theranos’s price menu, would have cost me $75."
     
    May 7, 2015
    "New Laboratory Testing Firm Seeks to Shatter Old Diagnostic Testing Model."
    Genomeweb.  Here.
     
    May 7, 2015
    "Silicon Valley Lab Testing Startup Hires Clinton Advisor."
    Bloomberg.  By Caroline Chen.  Here.  (Similarly: Here.)
     
    May 11, 2015
    "Our Editor Describes Visit to Theranos Test Center."
    Dark Report.  (Subscription).  Here.
    Sidebar: "Comparing Patient Visit with Advertised Benefits."
     
    May 11, 2015
    "Airbnb Chesky, Theranos Holmes among presidential entrepreneurs."
    USAToday.  By Marco della Cava.  Here.
    Winners met with Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker and President Obama.
     
    May 11, 2015
    "Elizabeth Holmes on Joining the Presidential Ambassadors for Global Entrepreneurship Initiative."
    Theranos/news/posts.  By Elizabeth Holmes.  Here.
    June 2, 2015.
    Elizabeth Holmes: Charlie Rose.  VIDEO.
    Here.  Comment, Kevin Loria, June 4, 2015.
     
    June, 2015
    "Collecting More Dollars From Patients: Why It’s Time For Clinical Labs and Pathology Groups to Move To The Retail Model."
    Dark Report [Trade journal, white paper].  Here.
    This white paper does not mention "Theranos" but covers the topic of retail access to laboratory tests.
     
    June 19, 2015
    "Personalized Technology Will Upend the Doctor-Patient Relationship."
    Harvard Business Review.  By Sundar Subramanian et al.  Here.
     
    June 21, 2015
    "The Benefits to Your Brain of a Work Uniform."
    Providence Journal [Chicago Tribune].  By Alexia Elejalde-Ruiz.  Here.
     
    June 22, 2015.
    "With Carlos Slim, Billionaire Elizabeth Holmes Brings Innovative Blood Testing Method To Mexico."
    Forbes.  By Dolia Estevez.  Here.
     
    June 23, 2015
    "Theranos' New Deal with Billionair Carlos Slim May Take It to Another Level." 
    Biz Journal SF.  By Ron Leuty.  Here.
     
    July 2, 2015
    "Controversial Multibillion-Dollar Health Startup Theranos Just Got a Huge Seal of Approval from the US Government."
    Business Insider.  By Laren F Friedman.  Here.
    July 2, 2015
    "Disruptive Diagnostics Firm Theranos Gets Boost from FDA."
    Fortune.  By Roger Parloff.  Here.
     
    July 3, 2015
    "Theranos Blood Test: The Insanely Influential Stanford Professor Who Called the Comapny Out for its 'Stealth Research.' "
    Washington Post.  By Ariana Eunjung Cha.  Here.
     
    July 24, 2015
    "Biden Visits Theranos Lab as Part of Healthcare Innovation Summit"
    USAToday. By Marco della Cava.  Here.
    Theranos Press Release, here.   The Suffield Times, here.
     
    July 24, 2015
    "Theranos Pushing Direct to Consumer Blood Testing."
    Health IT Outcomes.  By Christine Kern.  Here.
     
    July 30, 2015
    "Theranos’ Holmes Marks 50th Anniversary of Medicare and Medicaid with Vision for Next 50 Years."
    Business Wire [press release].  Here.
     
    August 11, 2015
    "Nickles Takes On Theranos."
    O'Dwyer PR Inside News, here.  (Nickles is a Washington policy group).
     
    August 17, 2015
    "A Good Month for Blood."
    Laboratory Equipment.  By Michelle Taylor.  Here.
     
    August 19-20, 2015
    "Leveraging Pharmacies for Rapid Diagnostics."
    7th Annual Next Generation Diagnostics Summit (Two-Day Track on Pharmacies).
    While not specific to Theranos, a two-day meeting on lab tests in the pharmacy space.
    Here or here.
    August 24, 2015
    "Labcorp is Reaching Past Doctor's Office to the Patient."
    Investors Business Daily.  By Gillian Rich.  Here.
     
    October 5, 2015
    "Elizabeth Holmes on Using Business to Change the World."
    Forbes.  By Sarah Hedgecock.  Here.
     
    October 6, 2015
    "Self Made Billionaire on Re-inventing Blood Tests: It's Like Cocaine."
    Vanity Fair.  By Emily Jane Fox.  Here.
     
    October 6, 2015
    "How Theranos is Disrupting the Health Care Industry."
    Bloomberg. [VIDEO 6:38 min.]  Here.
    "A cholesterol test is $2.99, whereas it could cost hundreds in other locations…The response from the lab industry, they have so aggressively seeded false information about us into the press, into journalists, into physicians in the market we are in."
     
    October 7, 2015
    "Theranos Founder Elizabeth Holmes to Deliver Keynote Address at 2015 Medical Innovation Summit."
    Craigs Cleveland Business.  Here.
     
    October 12, 2015
    "Theranos' Elizabeth Holmes Call on Women to Help Each Other."
    Fortune.  By Michael Lev-Ram.  Here.
     
    October 12, 2015
    "CME Group Announces Elizabeth Holmes as the 2015 Melamed-Arditti Innovation Award Receipient."
    MarketWatch.  Here.
     
    * * *
    Finally, here is a brief history of the rise and fall of Theranos and Liz Holmes in the only appropriate format for this farce: a cartoon.

     

     

  • Preparing For A Resurgence Of Globalism

    Via The Daily Bell,

    Backlash to World Economic Order Clouds Outlook at IMF Talks … Policy-making elites converge on Washington this week for meetings that epitomize a faith in globalization that’s at odds with the growing backlash against the inequities it creates. From Britain’s vote to leave the European Union to Donald Trump’s championing of “America First,” pressures are mounting to roll back the economic integration that has been a hallmark of gatherings of the IMF and World Bank for more than 70 years.

     

    – Bloomberg

    Populism versus globalism again, a meme we first identified after Brexit. The idea, we suggested was that a dialogue would be created in mainstream media painting populism as responsible for numerous economic political and military difficulties. Gradually, globalism would be suggested as the remedy for populism.

    At the end of this Bloomberg article, we find the beginnings of this rhetorical justification:

    “The consensus in policy-making circles was that more trade meant better economic growth,” said Standard Chartered head of Greater China economic research Ding Shuang, who worked at the IMF from 1997 to 2010. “But the benefits weren’t shared equitably, so now we see a round of anti-globalization, anti-free trade. “Globalization will stall for the moment, until we can find a way to share those benefits,” he added.

    This is the argument that will be made then, in louder and louder tones. Globalism has been rejected in favor of populism because globalism did not equitably share benefits.

    Solution? Make globalism more widespread and equitable. This is the argument being advanced, one that builds the justification for pushing globalism forward and expanding it.

    This is why memes are so important from an elite standpoint. Gradually, they can be reconfigured into “directed history.” Memes, once expressed, can be acted upon. That is what will happen here, no doubt, if this meme continues to be expanded.

    More:

    Fed by stagnant wages and diminishing job security, the populist uprising threatens to depress a world economy that International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde says is already “weak and fragile.” The calls for less integration and more trade barriers also pose risks for elevated financial markets that remain susceptible to sudden swings in investor sentiment, as underscored by recent jitters over Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank AG’s financial health.

     

    “The backlash against globalization is manifesting itself in increased nationalistic sentiment, against the outside world and in favor of increasing isolation,” said Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics in Hong Kong and a former IMF official. “If we lose consensus on what kind of a world we want to have, the world will probably be worse off.”

    This is textbook stuff. First create the meme, which  is always the expression of a problem: global warming, resource scarcity, prejudice, etc. Then gradually begin to prepare and offer antidotes.

    If the meme is successful, selected activists and politicians will begin to call for action. That’s how the meme drives the appropriate solution.

    Watching memes is useful because often you can predict the solution and thus see trends developing far in advance. In this case we would hypothesize that this meme will be expressed via forms of globalism that will extend to those immediately affected. This may, in fact, be lucrative for those who understand the elite mechanism and its regional implementations.

    Global warming, for instance, is a meme – a falsehood. But hundreds of billions and perhaps trillions have been spent in an attempt to treat it as a reality. Many have captured significant profits from participating in global warming remedies even thought he problem doesn’t exist, or not in a way that can be affected by man-made solutions.

    There is no doubt more action is coming on the globalist front, justified by “populist pushback.” Christine Lagarde herself, head of the IMF,  is quoted in the Blooomberg article as saying that “policy makers attending the Oct. 7-9 annual meeting of the IMF and World Bank have two tasks.”

    First, do no harm, which above all means resisting the temptation to throw up protectionist barriers to trade.

     

    And second, take action to boost lackluster global growth and make it more inclusive.

    Conclusion: It can’t be any clearer than that. Globalism, you see, is being recast not just as inevitable but as necessary as well, as the wise choice when contrasted with “populism.” We’ll see how far and fast this meme grows. Right now it looks to be a major one.

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Today’s News 5th October 2016

  • Conflicts Of Interest

    Submitted by Duane via FMShooter.com,

    yellen

    Fed Governor Lael Brainard has donated to Clinton’s campaign and is widely viewed as a potential Clinton pick for Treasury secretary. Yellen hesitated and then demurred when Representative Scott Garrett of New Jersey asked whether Brainard would have a conflict of interest if she were indeed in talks with Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s campaign about a position. The election takes place Nov. 8.

     

    “I would have to consult my counsel, I’m not aware that that’s a conflict,” Yellen said in testimony to the House Financial Services Committee in Washington, while rejecting Garrett’s suggestion that the U.S. central bank has a political bias.

    Source:  Fed Politics in Spotlight as Yellen Cornered by Lawmaker  |  Bloomberg

    Imagine how higher management would feel about you reacting in the same situation.  Goldman has been known to lay off its employees for even donating to the Trump campaign.  So a similar situation would be you, an employee of a firm, donating to a political campaign, and later getting a promotion as a result of that donation.

    Of course, Lael Brainard herself has a long history of working in the executive branch to begin with.  She initially served in Bill Clinton’s administration, and was appointed Undersecretary of the Treasury for International Affairs early in Barack Obama’s presidency.  In 2014, she was nominated to the Federal Reserve Board of Governers, and it appears the majority of “conflicts of interest” and connections with her past employers were largely ignored during her confirmation.

    brainerd

    Again, this should only surprise you so much.  Brainard is married to Kurt Campbell, CEO of The Asia Group, and previously founded and was CEO of many other think tanks and businesses.  After a distinguished military career, he also has made a career of working in politics, serving as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, and the Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs.  It would make sense to look at his trading statements, to see how his portfolio could have benefited from inside information from within the government and Federal Reserve itself.  If Campbell is appointed to a position within the government, it will just be another example of the government / lobby “revolving door” hard at work.

    Then again, it would be fair to say that about a Brainard appointment to Treasury secretary in and of itself.   And while you can expect the argument to be put forward of her “vast qualifications” at a confirmation hearing, it seems the one thing that she has done remarkably well during her career was to grease the right wheels and make sure that high-level government employment is in the cards.

    Revolving Door Politics

    So, when Yellen is queried by a Congressman about a potential conflict of interest, of course she is unaware that it could be a possible conflict.  “Revolving door” and “conflict of interest” in regards to government appointments translates to “business as usual” for government officials.

     

  • FED Talk – Why rate hikes will not have a lasting impact on gold

    The full report can be accessed and downloaded as PDF here at goldmoney.com

     

    Today’s sell off in gold has led to concerns that the >20% year-to-date rally in gold prices could begin to reverse. In our view this is primarily the reaction to renewed expectations that the FED is indeed prepared to raise rates again, which has led to large sell orders and pushed gold below a key technical level at USD1302/ozt. However, the asymmetry in the gold price outlook remains clear. There is very little downside to prices from here even if the FED raises rates multiple times over the coming year or two. Indeed, we see several triggers that could push gold prices sharply higher from here over that time horizon.

    Gold sold off more than 3% intraday today. The sharp price decline came on the back of hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker today and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester yesterday. Mr. Lacker said today in Charleston, “While inflation pressures may seem a distant and theoretical concern right now, prudent preemptive action can help us avoid the hard-to-predict emergence of a situation that requires more drastic action after the fact,” thus urging the FED to raise rates before year-end. On Monday, Cleveland FED President Mester said in a Bloomberg TV interview that the economy is ripe for rate hike and highlighted that the November FED meeting should be considered a “live” meeting (although she added that she considers all meetings as “live”) and a November rate hike compelling, despite its close proximity to the US presidential elections. These comments have sent real-interest rate expectations as measured in 10-year TIPS sharply higher which pushed gold prices sharply lower (see Exhibit 1). Tuesday saw unusually high activity in the gold futures market. The hawkish FED talk triggered large sell orders, which pushed gold prices below the key technical levels of USD1300-1302/ozt, exacerbating the sell-off. This is something we have witnessed before.

     

     

    Since the beginning of the year, the FED has tried to appear hawkish while the actual policy outlook has in fact become ever more dovish. At the end of 2015 there were 4 rate hikes expected and telegraphed by the FED in the FED dot-plot. The FED dot-plot shows the forecasts of each of the 16 members of the FOMC. Each dot represents a member’s view of where interest rates should be at for various timeframes, including a “long run” projection which represents where members think interest rates will be at the end of a hiking cycle. For 2016 the FOMC members expected 4 hikes (not including the first hike at the end of 2015). So far there have been none, and the FED members have continuously revised down their projections not just for this and next year, but also for the terminal (long run) rate. But every time after markets were disappointed by another zero round, some FOMC members came out with hawkish statements, and sometimes the FED minutes suggested that the FOMC became more hawkish. Every time the market reacted the same way: It pushed real interest rates higher and gold lower, and every time so far it was only temporary. Gold moved gradually higher, reflecting weaker interest rate projections. 

     

     

    So what happens to gold when the FED actually raises rates? We think not much. The reason is that real-interest rates can’t really move much higher from here even if the FED raises rates. The FED’s own projection for terminal rates is now just 2.85%. The FED will most probably only raise rates if inflation reaches or exceeds its own target of 2%, which would imply that real-interest rates (currently at 0.04%) are capped at 0.85% over the long run. This upside limit on real interest rates sets the floor for gold prices and explains why its price outlook is skewed to the upside. Yes, if everything goes perfectly and the FED gets the chance to raise rates to its target over several years (without encountering any economic slowdown along the way) while maintaining a 2% inflation rate, then gold prices have a little bit more downside, but less than 10% (see Exhibit 4). 

     

     

    In fact, there are many more potential drivers to the upside. 

    1. The FED might increase its inflation target as already suggested by San Francisco Fed President John Williams. This means that real-interest rate expectations would become negative again even if the FED actually raises rates;

    2. We start to experience an acceleration in broad based inflation as opposed to FED induced asset price inflation, pushing real rates back deep into negative territory;

    3. The FED keeps delaying rate hikes and taking guidance for terminal rates even lower as it has done for years;

    4. Any hiccup in the economy and the FED is forced to take rates lower instead of higher. Historically the FED has lowered rates several percentage points to counter recessions. At 0.5%, that would require steep NIRP;

    5. Any renewed QE or new form of unconventional monetary policy such as ‘helicopter money’ would push gold prices sharply higher;

    6. A renewed surge in longer dated energy prices (which bottomed in 1Q16, and we don’t expect these levels to be retested) but is likely only to materialize in a few years.

    Importantly, for gold to go higher from here it doesn’t need any Malthusian thinking. None of the scenarios above require a renewed global meltdown of financial markets or an even bigger event, such as a full blown currency crisis. The FED itself has simply set the floor for gold prices by revising its own guidance for rates to a point where the most hawkish scenario is that real-interest rates can only move marginally higher from here.

  • "Interruptionfest" VP Debate Ends In Tie, Moderator Loss

    We suspect a few screens were broken after that debacle.

    Just when you thought Lester Holt had troughed moderator incompetence, Elaine Quijano steals the show. Not only did she interrupt Mike Pence immeasurably many times but she consistently allowed Tim Kaine to interrupt his competitor and have the last word.

    Perhaps this showed 'weakness' on Pence's behalf but polls and post-debate discussions appear to show a slight bias to his lead as Kaine's manner and repetitiveness seemed to rub many the wrong way.

     

     

     

    Fox notes – Kaine Interrupted Pence 39 time, Pence Interrupted Kaine 19 times.

    As MRCTV reports, CBS News' Elaine Quijano repeatedly attacked Gov. Mike Pence (R-Ind.) during the 2016 vice presidential debate in Farmville, Va., on Tuesday.

    The debate moderator criticized Pence for failing to answer questions when he was unable to get a word in with constant interruptions from Hillary Clinton’s running mate Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.).

    On the subject of immigration, in addition to her initial question, Quijano overstepped her role of moderator by pressing Pence on whether illegal immigrants would be “forcibly removed” under Trump’s plan.

    “Governor, how would these millions of undocumented immigrants leave? Would they forcibly be removed?” she asked.

    She appeared to support Sen. Kaine on his criticism of Trump, answering back to him, “right,” in agreement. 

    Kaine said, “This is important, Elaine. When a guy running for president will not support the troops, not support veterans, not support teachers…”

    “Right,” Quijano responded, before Kaine even finished his remark.

    Kaine went on to overrun the moderator, taking control of the debate by speaking over both Gov. Pence and Ms. Quijano.

    The debate quickly became one-sided:

    Quijano later stopped Pence short in his discussion of the Clinton Foundation even though Kaine had ample time to defend the charity and attack the Trump Foundation. 

     

     

     

    As CBS reports, a focus group being conducted by CBS News contributor Frank Luntz believes Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine is interrupting Republican nominee Mike Pence too much during the debate.

     

     

    Polls were mixed:

    FOX: Pence Wins

    Focus Group: Pence Win

     

    *  *  *

    What They Said

    Kaine said:

    • *KAINE SAYS HE'S RUNNING WITH `HISTORY-MAKING WOMAN'
    • *KAINE: CLINTON PICKED HIM BECAUSE HE CAN HELP DELIVER RESULTS
    • *KAINE SAYS THOUGHT OF TRUMP AS COMMANDER IN CHIEF IS SCARY
    • *KAINE SAYS CLINTON ALWAYS PUTS OTHERS FIRST, UNLIKE TRUMP
    • *PENCE: CLINTON, KAINE WOULD KNOW ABOUT `INSULT-DRIVEN CAMPAIGN'
    • *KAINE SAYS CLINTON HAS PLAN THAT'S A `YOU'RE HIRED' PLAN
    • *KAINE SAYS CLINTON WILL NEVER TRY TO PRIVATIZE SOCIAL SECURITY
    • *KAINE SAYS HE'S STRONG 2ND AMENDMENT SUPPORTER
    • *KAINE ON TRUMP: CAN'T HAVE PERSON AT THE TOP WHO DEMEANS PEOPLE
    • *KAINE: TERRORIST THREAT HAS DECREASED IN SOME WAYS
    • *KAINE SAYS CLINTON ONLY CANDIDATE WHO CAN BEAT TERRORISM
    • *KAINE SAYS CLINTON WOULD VET REFUGEES, NOT DISCRIMINATE
    • *KAINE COMPARES TRUMP TO `FOOL' OR `MANIAC' ON NUCLEAR WEAPONS
    • *KAINE: CLINTON CAN STAND UP TO RUSSIA IN WAY TRUMP CANNOT
    • *KAINE: PUTIN IS WHAT WENT WRONG WITH RUSSIA RESET
    • *KAINE: CLINTON FOUNDATION ONE OF HIGHEST-RATED CHARITIES
    • *KAINE: CLINTON AT STATE TOOK NO ACTION TO BENEFIT FOUNDATION
    • *KAINE: PRESIDENT NEEDS TO DEFEND AGAINST IMMINENT THREATS
    • *KAINE: U.S. MUST BE ABLE TO COOPERATE WITH CHINA ON NORTH KOREA
    • *KAINE SAYS WAS AGAINST DEATH PENALTY, YET UPHELD VA. LAW
    • *KAINE: CLINTON WOULDN'T PUNISH WOMEN FOR ABORTION, UNLIKE TRUMP
    • *KAINE SAYS HE AND CLINTON HAVE RELATIONSHIPS ACROSS THE AISLE

    Pence said:

    • *PENCE SAYS HE HAS `LIFETIME OF EXPERIENCE' TO BRING TO DC
    • *PENCE: CLINTON, KAINE WOULD KNOW ABOUT `INSULT-DRIVEN CAMPAIGN'
    • *PENCE CRITICIZES CLINTON FOR FOUNDATION DONORS, PRIVATE SERVER
    • *PENCE SAYS HE, TRUMP CAN GET ECONOMY MOVING AGAIN, LOWER TAXES
    • *PENCE SAYS U.S. ECONOMY HAS BEEN DRIVEN INTO THE DITCH
    • *PENCE: TRUMP USED TAX CODE `THE WAY IT'S SUPPOSED TO BE USED'
    • *PENCE: TRUMP FACED TOUGH TIMES IN BUSINESS 20 YEARS AGO
    • *PENCE SAYS HE, TRUMP WILL MEET OBLIGATIONS TO SENIORS
    • *PENCE SAYS HE AGREES ON NEED FOR COMMUNITY POLICING
    • *PENCE SAYS `IMPLICIT BIAS' COMMENTS DEMEAN LAW ENFORCEMENT
    • *PENCE: TRUMP COMMENTS NOTHING COMPARED WITH `DEPLORABLES' REMRK
    • *PENCE: `AMERICA IS LESS SAFE TODAY'
    • *PENCE CRITICIZES CLINTON REFUGEE PLAN AS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
    • *PENCE SAYS CLINTON'S PRIORITY WAS THE RESET WITH RUSSIA
    • *PENCE: U.S. SHOULD BE PREPARED TO USE MILITARY FORCE IN SYRIA
    • *PENCE: U.S. SHOULD DEPLOY DEFENSE SHIELD TO CZECH REP., POLAND
    • *PENCE: U.S. MUST REBUILD MILITARY TO HALT NUCLEAR THREAT
    • *PENCE SAYS TRUMP WOULD NEVER PUNISH WOMEN FOR ABORTION
    • *PENCE DEFENDS TRUMP COMMENTS, HE'S `NOT A POLISHED POLITICIAN'
    • *PENCE SAYS TRUMP'S BUSINESS SMARTS WILL HELP UNIFY U.S.

    *  *  *

    Trump's View of the Winner…

    And Hillary asked for money…

     

  • ALERT: Markets to implode, only FX will be left

    Warning to investors – traditional markets are flawed.  In one of many hypothetical futures, not so far in the future, FX may be the only game in town.  As we explain in Splitting Pennies – Understanding Forex – it’s FX that drives the world, not stocks, bonds, commodities, or real estate.  Let’s take a quick look at some of the cracks in traditional markets.

    HFT Market to collapse, or drastically change

    During the credit crisis HFT snuck in a huge business for themselves in the stock market via Reg NMS by manipulating ‘order types’ and ‘latency’.  Well, that’s all starting to unwind.  Top HFT firms are fearful that the SEC is about to ‘spill the beans’ according to Bloomberg:

    Some of the biggest electronic traders are complaining that a new test in the U.S. stock market will compromise their top-secret strategies, one of their most valuable assets.  Citadel Securities and KCG Holdings Inc. are among a chorus of brokers questioning elements of a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission experiment, which began Monday, designed to whip up more trading in small companies. Their complaint is that the test will force firms to publicly expose detailed trading data with only the thinnest veil of anonymity, allowing competitors to reverse engineer how their prized trading algorithms work.  For high-speed trading firms, complex computer code is the secret weapon for profiting from the market. Some brokers say they fear that in their test, regulators won’t sufficiently mask their publicly reported trading data.  “It’s going to take someone exactly three seconds to figure out who’s who,” said Jamil Nazarali, head of execution services at Citadel Securities, which is the market-making arm of billionaire Ken Griffin’s Citadel LLC. Trading firms will “likely change their behavior to protect their intellectual property,” making the test’s results less meaningful, he added.

    And, IEX is set to blow a hole in the dark pools of Wall St.

    Big Banks collapsing – SOON

    Previously to the “DB Crisis” – Europe’s biggest bank, Douche Bank, is now probably insolvent at best, and at worst – will form a black hole so big that it will suck half of the worlds banks and assets into it when it implodes.  DB isn’t just a bank, it’s a financial powerhouse – a superbank.  For example, if you’ve ever bought a currency ETF, it was probably offered by DB:

    (Note the big black X in the background – good choice DB!)

    Hmm.. only 35 ETFs in the USA.  Anyway, creating an ETF isn’t easy.  DB is registered in almost every country in the world, yes even in Malta.  They are in thousands of businesses.  Unwinding this behemoth will take decades.  Unraveling all of their crimes, money laundering, scandals, and derivatives is practically impossible.  Just one example of a $10 Billion dollar liability, in this case, just money laundering:

    Almost every weekday between the fall of 2011 and early 2015, a Russian broker named Igor Volkov called the equities desk of Deutsche Bank’s Moscow headquarters. Volkov would speak to a sales trader—often, a young woman named Dina Maksutova—and ask her to place two trades simultaneously. In one, he would use Russian rubles to buy a blue-chip Russian stock, such as Lukoil, for a Russian company that he represented. Usually, the order was for about ten million dollars’ worth of the stock. In the second trade, Volkov—acting on behalf of a different company, which typically was registered in an offshore territory, such as the British Virgin Islands—would sell the same Russian stock, in the same quantity, in London, in exchange for dollars, pounds, or euros. Both the Russian company and the offshore company had the same owner. Deutsche Bank was helping the client to buy and sell to himself…Although the bank’s headquarters remained in Germany, power migrated from conservative Frankfurt to London, the investment-banking hub where the most lavish profits were generated. The assimilation of different banking cultures was not always successful. In the nineties, when hundreds of Americans went to work for Deutsche Bank in London, German managers had to place a sign in the entrance hall spelling out “Deutsche” phonetically, because many Americans called their employer “Douche Bank.”  

    On the other side of the pond, Wells Fargo – previously one of America’s ‘trusted’ banks, “Main St. bank” – is collapsing after the market learned that their great sales figures were based on a house of cards that was, well, fraudulent.  If you’re not aware or not following this crisis, checkout this article for a simple explanation.

    Real Estate Market Shaky, at best

    With a major hurricane likely to hit Florida and possibly a direct hit on Miami, which already has a problem with high tides, hot markets such as Miami are feeling multiple pressures.

    Manhattan apartment sales have plunged 20% – 

    There are a lot more apartments available for purchase these days in Manhattan. And fewer people are buying.  Sales of previously owned condominiums and co-ops fell 20 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier as potential buyers grew cautious amid more choices, according to a report Tuesday from appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate. There were 5,290 resale apartments on the market at the end of September, 53 percent more than the number available in late 2013, the lowest point for listings.

    The swelling inventory is providing an opportunity to New Yorkers shut out of a market in which construction has been dominated by ultra-luxury condos aimed at the wealthiest buyers. Resales, particularly those priced at less than $1 million, were in chronically short supply in recent years, and those that made it to the market sparked bidding wars. Now, more owners are listing apartments to profit from climbing values, and they’re finding lots of company.  “Rapidly rising prices over the years have pulled more sellers into the market hoping to cash out,” Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel, said in an interview. “But buyers are more wary. There isn’t the same intensity of activity to burn through the new supply.”

    What’s next?  

    Hedge Funds, not capitalizing on the turmoil, and even losing

    Well, hedge funds are having their worst year EVER, with fewer than one in five beating a basic market benchmark:

    In fact, this has been the year investors wanted to do anything but try to pick stocks. Active fund managers had their worst first half ever, with fewer than one in five beating a basic market benchmark, according to data from Bank of America Merrill Lynch that go back to 2003.Stock pickers were done in by two major factors: following the crowd and an uneven pattern of correlations among stocks. The 10 most-crowded stocks lagged the 10 least-owned by a whopping 18 percentage points, which BofAML called “an atypically high spread.”

    So what’s left?

    Forex Markets to dominate the next 20 years

    There’s always Forex algorithms, which Wall St. simply afraid of, because they don’t ‘control’ the FX markets.  Some FX strategies perform month in and month out like clockwork, a pension fund’s dream – but why go with something that works when it’s politically correct to lose with hedge funds (it’s good for jobs, right?).

    The point is that, FX is a money market – and a super set of other markets.  If the stock market completely crashes like 50%, investors will still have trillions in cash.  It will even create a dollar shortage.  But that cash has to go somewhere.  Some, will go to Euros, Swiss Francs, and other ‘money’.  Bitcoin isn’t a percent of a percent of a percent, although certainly money will flow into Bitcoin.  Bitcoin isn’t viable alterantive to major FX currencies simply because of acceptability.  It’s not possible to pay for goods in foreign countries in Bitcoin – but many accept US Dollars.  Until that changes – or until the United States of America ceases to exist as a country (which is probably the only event that could really obliterate FX markets) – then, FX is going to be the only game left in town.  Why?  Because, the US Dollar is supported by bombs.  As long as the US Army has enough gas in their tanks, and munitions in their supply, you can bet dollar markets will function.  Other markets, like real estate, don’t have such protection.  But there’s a good reason for that.  Because all markets DEPEND on FX.  Without a dollar market, the stock market couldn’t exist.  If you want to be Wall St.’s next HFT firm, you first need to fund an account WITH DOLLARS.  

    So, although many markets teetering on the brink of implosion, FX looking stronger than ever, and until there’s a viable alternative (which considering alternatives, China, Russia, Bitcoin, etc… not a real solid candidate next 20 years) we can expect FX supremacy and US Dollar Hegemony for the long term.  So, if you’re still naive to the realities of FX – now’s a great time to start learning!

    If you don’t know Forex, checkout the book Splitting Pennies – Understanding Forex – or checkout Fortress Capital Trading Academy, who offers a great Introductory course.

  • DOJ Drops Charges Against Arms Dealer Who "Threatened To Expose" Hillary Arming Islamic Extremists

    In what would under other circumstances likely be a major media spectacle, Politico reported that the Obama administration is moving to dismiss charges against an arms dealer whom it had accused of selling weapons destined for Libyan rebels and who had threatened to expose Hillary Clinton’s talks about arming anti-Qaddafi rebels.

    According to a motion filed in federal court in Phoenix, the DOJ on Monday filed a motion to drop the case against the arms dealer, an American named Marc Turi. One potential reason for the surprising move is that as Politico writes, the deal averts a trial that threatened to cast additional scrutiny on Hillary Clinton’s private emails as Secretary of State, and to expose reported Central Intelligence Agency attempts to arm rebels fighting Libyan leader Moammar Qadhafi.


    Marc Turi

    Turi was indicted in 2014 on four felony counts: two of arms dealing in violation of the Arms Export Control Act and two of lying to the State Department in official applications. The charges accused Turi of claiming that the weapons involved were destined for Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, when the arms were actually intended to reach Libya. Turi’s lawyers argued that the shipments were part of a U.S. government-authorized effort to arm Libyan rebels. It’s unclear if any of the weapons made it to Libya, and there’s no evidence linking weapons provided by the U.S. government to the Benghazi attacks.

    According to Politico government lawyers were facing a Wednesday deadline to produce documents to Turi’s legal team, and the trial was officially set to begin on Election Day, although it likely would have been delayed by protracted disputes about classified information in the case. A Turi associate asserted that the government dropped the case because the proceedings could have embarrassed Clinton and President Barack Obama by calling attention to the reported role of their administration in supplying weapons that fell into the hands of Islamic extremist militants.

    Making matters worse, Turi’s case had delved into emails sent to and from the controversial private account that Clinton used as Secretary of State, which the defense planned to harness at any trial.

    “They don’t want this stuff to come out because it will look really bad for Obama and Clinton just before the election,” said the associate.

    Leery of admitting the actual truth, in the dismissal motion, prosecutors were vague saying that “discovery rulings” from U.S. District Court Judge David Campbell contributed to the decision to drop the case. The joint motion asks the judge to accept a confidential agreement to resolve the case through a civil settlement between the State Department and the arms broker.

    Additionally, Turi’s defense was pressing for more documents about the alleged rebel-arming effort and for testimony from officials who worked on the issue the State Department and the CIA. The defense said it planned to argue that Turi believed he had official permission to work on arms transfers to Libya. “If we armed the rebels, as publicly reported in many, many sources and as we strongly believe happened and as we believe at least one witness told the grand jury, then documents about that process relate to that effort,” Cabou told Campbell at the same hearing last year.

    And so, the best course of action for the DOJ was to shut the case down, or else risk drawing unwanted attention to Hillary at the most sensitive time for the presidential candidate.

    “Our position from the outset has been that this case never should have been brought and we’re glad it’s over,” said Jean-Jacques Cabou, a Perkins Coie partner serving as court-appointed defense counsel in the case. “Mr Turi didn’t break the law….We’re very glad the charges are being dismissed.”

     

    Under the deal, Turi admits no guilt in the transactions he participated in, but he agreed to refrain from U.S.-regulated arms dealing for four years. A $200,000 civil penalty will be waived if Turi abides by the agreement.

     

    A State Department official confirmed the outlines of the agreement.

    To be sure, the lawsuit devolved into a case of who said what.

    According to a government official who asked not to be named, “Mr. Turi cooperated with the Department’s Directorate of Defense Trade Controls in its review and proposed administrative settlement of the alleged violations. Based on a compliance review, DDTC alleged that Mr. Turi…engaged in brokering activities for the proposed transfer of defense articles to Libya, a proscribed destination under [arms trade regulations,] despite the Department’s denial of…requests for the required prior approval of such activities.”

    “The proposal did not result in an actual transfer of defense articles to Libya,” the State Department official told Politico on Tuesday.

    On the other hand, Turi adviser Robert Stryk of the government relations and consulting firm SPG accused the government of trying to scapegoat Turi to cover up Clinton’s mishandling of Libya. “The U.S. government spent millions of dollars, went all over the world to bankrupt him, and destroyed his life — all to protect Hillary Clinton’s crimes,” he said, alluding to the deadly Sept. 11, 2012 terrorist attack on the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, Libya.

    At a court hearing in 2015, Cabou said emails between Clinton and her top aides indicated that efforts to arm the rebels were — at a minimum — under discussion at the highest levels of the government.

    “We’re entitled to tell the jury, ladies and gentlemen of the jury, the Secretary of State and her highest staff members were actively contemplating providing exactly the type of military assistance that Mr. Turi is here to answer for,” the defense attorney said, according to a transcript.

    Whatever the case, the overhang of another Libya snafu potentially muddying up the waters just before the election, was something the Clinton campaign could not afford as Republicans still hold Clinton responsible for mishandling the circumstances around that attack.

    It is unlikely that the story will remain hushed for long, however: Stryk said that Turi was now weighing book and movie deals to tell his story, and to weigh in on the Benghazi attack.

  • All The Ways You Can Comply (& Still Die) During An Encounter With Police

    Submitted by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    How do you protect yourself from flying fists, choking hands, disabling electrified darts and killing bullets?

    How do you defend yourself against individuals who have been indoctrinated into believing that they are superior to you, that their word is law, and that they have the power to take your life?

    Most of all, how can you maintain the illusion of freedom when daily, Americans are being shot, stripped, searched, choked, beaten and tasered by police for little more than daring to frown, smile, question, challenge an order or just exist?

    The short answer: you can’t.

    Now for the long answer, which is far more complicated but still leaves us feeling hopeless, helpless and vulnerable to the fears, moods and misguided training of every cop on the beat.

    If you ask police and their enablers what Americans should do to stay alive during encounters with law enforcement, they will tell you to comply (or die).

    It doesn’t matter where you live—big city or small town—it’s the same scenario being played out over and over again in which Americans are being brainwashed into believing that anyone who wears a government uniform—soldier, police officer, prison guard—must be obeyed without question, while government agents, hyped up on their own authority and the power of their uniform, ride roughshod over the rights of the citizenry.

    The problem, of course, is what to do when compliance is not enough.

    I’m not talking about the number of individuals—especially young people—who are being shot and killed by police for having a look-alike gun in their possession, such as a BB gun. I’m not even talking about people who have been shot for brandishing weapons at police, such as scissors.

    I’m talking about the growing numbers of unarmed people are who being shot and killed for just standing a certain way, or moving a certain way, or holding something—anything—that police could misinterpret to be a gun, or igniting some trigger-centric fear in a police officer’s mind that has nothing to do with an actual threat to their safety.

    Killed for standing in a “shooting stance.” In California, police opened fire on and killed a mentally challenged—unarmed—black man allegedly because he removed a vape from his pocket and took a “shooting stance.”

     

    Killed for holding a cell phone. Police in Arizona shot a man who was running away from U.S. Marshals after he refused to drop an object that turned out to be a cellphone.

     

    Killed for holding a baseball bat. Chicago police shot and killed a 19-year-old college student who was carrying a baseball bat around the apartment where he and his father lived.

     

    Killed for opening the front door. Bettie Jones was fatally shot—accidentally—when she attempted to open the front door for police responding to a domestic disturbance call.

     

    Killed for being a child in a car pursued by police. Jeremy David Mardis, six years old and autistic, died after police opened fire on a car in which he was a passenger.

     

    Killed for attacking police with a metal spoon. In Alabama, police shot and killed a 50-year-old man who reportedly charged a police officer while holding “a large metal spoon in a threatening manner.”

     

    Killed for running in an aggressive manner holding a tree branch. Georgia police shot and killed a 47-year-old man wearing only shorts and tennis shoes who ran towards police holding a stick in an “aggressive manner.

     

    Killed for crawling around naked. Atlanta police shot and killed an unarmed man who was reported to have been “acting deranged, knocking on doors, crawling around on the ground naked.” Police fired two shots at the man after he reportedly starting running towards them.

     

    Killed because a police officer accidentally pulled out his gun instead of his taser. An Oklahoma man suspected of trying to sell an illegal handgun was shot and killed after a 73-year-old reserve deputy inadvertently fired his gun instead of his taser.

     

    Killed for wearing dark pants and a basketball jersey. Donnell Thompson, a mentally disabled 27-year-old described as gentle and shy, was shot and killed after police—searching for a carjacking suspect reportedly wearing similar clothing—encountered him lying motionless in a neighborhood yard.

     

    Killed for telling police you lawfully own a firearm and have a conceal-and-carry permit. Philando Castile was shot and killed during a routine traffic stop allegedly over a broken tail light. As he was reaching for his license and registration, Castile explained to police that he had a  conceal-and-carry permit. That’s all it took for police to shoot Castile four times in the presence of his girlfriend and her 4-year-old daughter.

     

    Killed for leaving anywhere at all when a police officer pulls up. Deravis Caine Rogers was killed after starting to drive away from an apartment complex right around the same time as a police officer pulled up. Despite the fact that the police officer had no reason to believe Rogers was a threat or was suspected of any illegal activity, the officer fired into Rogers’ passenger side window.

     

    Killed for driving while deaf. In North Carolina, a state trooper shot and killed 29-year-old Daniel K. Harris—who was deaf—after Harris initially failed to pull over during a traffic stop.

     

    Killed for being homeless. Los Angeles police shot an unarmed homeless man after he failed to stop riding his bicycle and then proceeded to run from police.

     

    Killed for being old and brandishing a shoehorn. John Wrana, a 95-year-old World War II veteran, lived in an assisted living center, used a walker to get around, and was shot and killed by police who mistook the shoehorn in his hand for a 2-foot-long machete and fired multiple beanbag rounds from a shotgun at close range.

     

    Killed for having your car break down on the road. Terence Crutcher, unarmed and black, was shot and killed by Oklahoma police after his car broke down on the side of the road. Crutcher was shot in the back while walking towards his car with his hands up.

     

    Killed for holding a garden hose. California police were ordered to pay $6.5 million after they opened fire on a man holding a garden hose, believing it to be a gun. Douglas Zerby was shot 12 times and pronounced dead on the scene.

    Now you can make all kinds of excuses to justify these shootings, and in fact that’s exactly what you’ll hear from politicians, police unions, law enforcement officials and individuals who are more than happy to march in lockstep with the police. However, to suggest that a good citizen is a compliant citizen and that obedience will save us from the police state is not only recklessly irresponsible, but it is also deluded and out of touch with reality, because in the American police state, compliance is no longer enough.

    Frankly, as these incidents make clear, the only truly compliant, submissive and obedient citizen in a police state is a dead one.

    If you’re starting to feel somewhat overwhelmed, intimidated and fearful for your life and your property, you should be.

    As I point out in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, “we the people” are now at the mercy of law enforcement officers who have almost absolute discretion to decide who is a threat, what constitutes resistance, and how harshly they can deal with the citizens they were appointed to “serve and protect.”

    Sad, isn’t it, how quickly we have gone from a nation of laws—where the least among us had just as much right to be treated with dignity and respect as the next person (in principle, at least)—to a nation of law enforcers (revenue collectors with weapons) who treat us all like suspects and criminals?

  • University Distributes Seven-Page Speech Guide

    By Kate Hardiman, University of Notre Dame, via The College Fix

    Student leaders of this year’s freshman orientation at James Madison University were given a list of 35 things they should avoid saying, including phrases such as “you have such a pretty face,” “love the sinner, hate the sin,” “we’re all part of the human race,” “I treat all people the same,” “it was only a joke,” “I never owned slaves,” and “people just need to pick themselves up by their bootstraps,” among other expressions.

    Those phrases and others on the list “widen the diversity gap” and do not “create a safe and inclusive environment,” according to the seven-page handout, a copy of which was provided to The College Fix by a campus spokesman.

    Adapted from Dr. Maura Cullen’s book “35 Dumb Things Well-Intended People Say: Surprising Things We Say that Widen the Diversity Gap,” the list also classifies some compliments and encouraging words, such as calling someone “cute” or saying “I know exactly how you feel,” as a no-no.

    Many of the “dumb” statements also pertained to race. “I don’t see color,” “I’m colorblind” and “I don’t see difference. We’re all part of the same race, the human race” were all advised against. “If you are going to live in this country, learn to speak the language” also made the list.

    After each phrase, an explanation as to why it should be avoided was given. Expressions on race allegedly make people of color feel invisible and diminish their life experiences, the handout states. Statements of empathy supposedly “shuts the other person down,” it adds. Saying to LBGTQ people “what you do in the privacy of your own bedroom is your business” is “hurtful and annoying” because it does not acknowledge the quality and depth of their relationship outside the bedroom, the handout states.

    The last item on the list warns against labeling something as political correct, calling it “an attempt to shut the other person up.”

    James Madison University’s director of communications Bill Wyatt told The College Fix via email that “this was just an exercise, prior to orientation, to get our volunteers to understand how language affects others. The list was not distributed to our first-year students nor were the volunteers instructed not to use the phrases.”

    Yet page one of the handout, written by JMU, reads that orientation leaders should “use this handout as a resource” to help accomplish the goal of creating a “safe and inclusive environment for your first year students.”

    They were also called upon by the handout to “take some time to reflect on your prejudices and biases, and how that might affect your interactions with students.”

    The full list of 35 “dumb” expressions is:

    1. “Some of my best friends are …”
    2. “I know exactly how you feel.”
    3. “I don’t think of you as …”
    4. “The same thing happens to me too.”
    5. “It was only a joke! Don’t take things so seriously.”
    6. What do ‘your’ people think.”
    7. “What are you?” or “Where are you really from?”
    8. “I don’t see color” or “I’m color blind.”
    9. “You are so articulate.”
    10. “It is so much better than it used to be. Just be patient.”
    11. “You speak the language very well.”
    12. Asking black people about their hair or hygiene.
    13. Saying to LBGTQ people “what you do in the privacy of your own bedroom is your business.”
    14. “Yes, but you are a ‘good’ one.”
    15. “You have such a pretty face.”
    16. “I never owned slaves.”
    17. “If you are going to live in this country, learn to speak the language!”
    18. “She/he is a good person. She/he didn’t mean anything by it.”
    19. “When I’ve said the same thing to other people like you, they don’t mind.”
    20. Calling women “girls, honey, sweetie pie” or other familiar terms.
    21. When people of color say, “It is not the same thing.”
    22. When people of faith say, “Love the sinner, hate the sin.”
    23. When white men say, “We are the ones being discriminated against now!”
    24. Referring to older people as “cute.”
    25. Asking a transgender person, “What are you really? A man or a woman?”
    26. Referring to the significant other, partner, or spouse of a same gender couple as their “friend.”
    27. “Why do ‘they’ (fill in the blank) always have to sit together? They are always sticking together.”
    28. “People just need to pick themselves up by their bootstraps.”
    29. People with disabilities are “courageous.”
    30. “That’s so gay/queer. That’s so retarded.”
    31. “I don’t see difference. We are all part of the same race, the human race.”
    32. I don’t care if you are pink, purple or orange, I treat all people the same.”
    33. Asking a transgender person, “Have you had the operation.”
    34. Saying to a Jewish person, “You are so lucky to have ‘your’ Christmas spread over a week!”
    35. “Here’s another book on political correctness.”

    Click here to read the entire document.

  • Clinton Foundation Allegedly Hacked Exposing Thousands Of Donor Databases; "Pay To Play" Folder

    While the hack of the Clinton Foundation was foreshadowed two months ago, moments ago notorious hacker Gufficer 2.0, who previously was responsible for hacking the DNC and DNCC not to mention the resignation of Debbie Wasserman Shultz, announced that the moment “many of you have been waiting for” has come, by revealing that the Clinton Foundation has been hacked.

    This is what Guccifer 2.0, who has denied being affiliated with the Russian government claiming that like the original Guccifer he is from Romania, posted moments ago on his website:

    So, this is the moment. I hacked the Clinton Foundation server and downloaded hundreds of thousands of docs and donors’ databases.

     

    Hillary Clinton and her staff don’t even bother about the information security. It was just a matter of time to gain access to the Clinton Foundation server.

    The unknown hacker has allegedly exposed 1,000 of Hillary donors (a small list of master donors can be found here)…

    Guccifer

     

    …corporate donations made to various House representatives….

    Guccifer

     

     

    …as well as Wall Street bank donations, curiously cross-referenced to how much TARP funding they received.

    Guccifer

     

    As Guccifer notes,” It looks like big banks and corporations agreed to donate to the Democrats a certain percentage of the allocated TARP funds.

    Guccifer 2.0 also posted a note to Julian Assange who was mocked on Tuesday morning after he failed to produce Clinton documents he has long claimed to have.

    “P.S. I’m pleased to congratulate Wikileaks on their 10th anniversary!!!,” Guccifer 2.0 writes. “Julian, you are really cool! Stay safe and sound!”

    * * *

    But the most interesting, and perhaps damning, finding is the following: a root directory snapshot revealing a folder which Hillary may have some trouble explaining: “Pay to Play

    Guccifer

    The hacker also provides a link to the hundreds of thousands of other documents he has access to saying “I can’t post all databases here for they’re too large. I’m looking for a better way to release them now.”

    We will go through the files, with a focus on Pay to Play because this may be the clearest confirmation that after repeated accusations that the Clinton Foundation was primarily a conduit for rich donors to get access to privileged kickbacks, or well “pay to play”, this was indeed the case, although the fact that someone actually left a folder with that name in the foundation’s server makes us wonder if someone is really that stupid, or whether this hack is even real.

    To be sure, as The Hill notes, some of the files contained in the leaked data dump appear to originate not from the Foundation but from the DNCC:

    A sampling of the posted documents include a spreadsheet of big bank donations, a list of primarily California donors, an outdated spreadsheet of some Republican House members — and a screenshot of files he claimed to have obtained, one of which was titled “Pay to Play.”

     

    But there are a number of red flags that suggest the documents are in fact from a previous hack on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), not a new hack on the Clinton Foundation.

     

    A spot check of some of the people on the donor list against FEC filings found that they all lined up with DCCC contributions.

     

    The Clinton Foundation discloses its donors, and many of the alleged donors published by Guccifer 2.0 do not appear to have given to the organization.

    One spreadsheet was allegedly created by a Kevin C. McKeon at DCCC in 2009. There was a Kevin McKeon that worked at DCCC at that time.

    The Clinton Foundation has denied the hack, with president Donna Shalala saying that “none of the files or folders shown are ours.”

     

     

  • Gundlach: "Deutsche Bank Will Be Bailed Out But What About Credit Suisse"

    Last Thursday, when Deutsche Bank was flailing ahead of the now confirmed fake report of a reduced settlement with the DOJ, Reuters spoke to Jeff Gundlach about his thoughts regarding the German lender, his advice was simple: don’t touch it. “I would just stay away. It’s un-analyzable,” Gundlach said about Deutsche Bank shares and debt. “It’s too binary.” Gundlach said investors who are betting against shares in Deutsche Bank might find it futile. Maybe, but not if they cover their shorts before the max pain point, something which the market – where equity/CDS pair trades now allow a “go for default” strategy – will actively seek out.

    “The market is going to push down Deutsche Bank until there is some recognition of support. They will get assistance, if need be.”

    What happens then? “One day, Deutsche Bank shares will go up 40 percent. And it will be the day the government bails them out. That jump will happen in a minute,” Gundlach said. “It is about an event which is completely out of your control.”

    The very next day his forecast was proven largely accurate, when DB soared some 25% from its overnight lows on, if not a bailout, then a report of a potentiel reprieve, even if the report ultimately ended up being wrong.

    Then, earlier today, during the Grant’s Fall 2016 investment conference, Gundlach once again discussed the troubled German bank and said that “you cannot save your faltering economy by killing your financial system and one of the clear poster children for this is Deutsche Bank’s stock price,” Gundlach, 56, said at Grant’s Fall 2016 Investment Conference on Tuesday in New York. “If you keep these negative interest rate policies for a sufficient future period of time you are going to bankrupt these banks.”

    Europe’s banks have seen their value shrink by about $280 billion this year, with Deutsche Bank losing almost half its market value. Germany’s largest lender extended losses after the U.S. Department of Justice last month requested $14 billion to settle a probe into residential mortgage-backed securities, sparking concerns that it will have to raise capital.

    Repeating what he said one week ago, Gundlach added that while the Frankfurt-based bank would ultimately be rescued by the German government if needed, other banks in the region wouldn’t be able to count on such support, Gundlach said.

    “Deutsche Bank will be supported by Germany if push comes to shove,” he said. “But what about Credit Suisse, which has shown a similar decline in stock price? Who’s there to bail them out?”

    As Bloomberg notes, having been largely forgotten in the din surrounding DB, Credit Suisse has lost about 40 percent of its value this year. The Swiss bank raised about $6 billion of capital last year under new Chief Executive Officer Tidjane Thiam to help fund a restructuring plan.

    Joining the “other” bond king who earlier today railed against unorthodox monetary policies, Gundlach warned again that negative rates risk undermining the proper functioning of capital markets, and blamed European banking’s woes on the ECB’s policies.

    However, what is a trapped central bank to do: Gundlach pointed out that even the Federal Reserve, which has not cut rates below zero, is seeing signs that its policies aren’t working. Gundlach has said that interest rates bottomed in July and that the market is looking for signs of fiscal stimulus and accelerating inflation. He’s predicting that rates on the U.S. 10-year bond may surpass 2 percent by the end of 2016. Which may explain why Gundlach told the Grant’s confernce audience that for the first time in years, he favored TIPS, which he has in the CORE fund, over nominal Treasuries.

    “For the first time in years, I am long TIPS,” he said.

    In a separate interview with Reuters, Gundlach added: “Implied future inflation priced into TIPS is low, too low for the environment likely to unfold over the next decade. Nominal Treasuries are likely to underperform TIPs over an institutional investment horizon.”

    While his inflationary bet may be premature, investors don’t seem to think so: DoubleLine posted a net inflow of $444.4 million into its open-end mutual funds in September, marking the Los Angeles-based firm’s 32nd consecutive month of inflows, while the $61.8 billion DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund, the largest fund by total assets of the DoubleLine Funds, had a net inflow of $190.9 million in September, for a year-to-date net inflow of $8.3 billion.

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Today’s News 4th October 2016

  • Google Says Only "White People" Can Be Racist While Confirming That "Reverse Racism DOES NOT Exist"

    Back in February, Google drew some heat when a Muslim blogger, Hind Makki, pointed out a seemingly racist “kink” in the search engine’s algorithm related to a search for “american muslims report terrorism.”  Apparently Google made the incorrect assumption that Makki meant to search for “american muslims support terrorism.”  Oops.

     

    Tosh.O even recorded an “Is Google Racist?” segment poking fun at the discovery.

     

    Now, clearly not one to shy away from tackling the tough racially-charged questions, per The Sun, Google offers the following very specific answer to the question of whether or not it is “possible to be racist to a white person”:

    Reverse Racism

     

    Just to recap before moving on, according to Google “reverse racism DOES NOT exist” because “white people have power to oppress black people because they control the system and economic structure in society.”

    Oddly, Google seems to have pulled their “facts” from a Huffington Post article entitled “4 ‘Reverse Racism’ Myths That Need To Stop” which succinctly concludes:  “Reverse racism isn’t real.  No, really.”

    Now we’re not sure about all of you, but the first “news” outlet that comes to mind when we think about hard-hitting, fact-based, impartial, investigative journalism is the Huffington Post. 

    In fact, all you have to do is take a quick look at the Huffington Post article to find that they cite some pretty “credible” sources in defense of their controversial conclusion on reverse racism. Well, on second thought it actually only seems to cite 1 “source” and it just happens to be the 2014 film, “Dear White People.” 

    Still, the film, which was described as “a biting satire of racial politics” by critics, could still be considered a credible source, right?

     

    So, just to summarize, Google offered up a “factual” answer to whether or not “reverse racism” exists in American society based on a 2014 Hollywood movie.  Seem reasonable to everyone?

    Of course, this should all come as a surprise to precisely no one as Silicon Valley has demonstrated multiple times in recent months that they’ve completely lost the ability to present impartial facts.  For example, we recently shared a post entitled “Harvard PhD Explains How Google Search Bias Could “Shift 3 Million Votes” In Upcoming Election” that systematically illustrated how Google overtly censored popular search results to the explicit benefit of Hillary Clinton by editing out potentially harmful results.  Or, there is that time that FaceBook openly admitted that it “routinely” suppressed conservative news.

    With support like that it’s shocking that the presidential polls are even as close as they are.

  • France: The Ticking Time Bomb Of Islamization

    Submitted by Yves Manou via The Gatestone Institute,

    • The last group, defined as the "Ultras", represent 28% of Muslims polled, and the most authoritarian profile. They say they prefer to live apart from Republican values. For them, Islamic values and Islamic law, or sharia, come first, before the common law of the Republic. They approve of polygamy and of wearing the niqab or the burqa.
    • "These 28% adhere to Islam in its most retrograde version, which has become for them a kind of identity. Islam is the mainstay of their revolt; and this revolt is embodied in an Islam of rupture, conspiracy theories and anti-Semitism," according to Hamid el Karoui in an interview with Journal du Dimanche.
    • More importantly, these 28% exist predominantly among the young (50% are under 25). In other words, one out of every two young French Muslims is a Salafist of the most radical type, even if he does not belong to a mosque.
    • It is unbelievable that the only tools at our disposal are inadequate opinion polls. Without knowledge, no political action — or any other action — is possible. It is a situation that immeasurably benefits aggressive political Islamists.
    • Willful blindness is the mother of the civil war to come — unless the French people choose to submit to Islam without a fight.

    Recently, two important studies about French Muslims were released in France.

    The first one, optimistically entitled, "A French Islam is Possible," was published under the auspices of Institut Montaigne, an independent French think tank.

     

    The second study, entitled, "Work, the Company and the Religious Question," is the fourth annual joint study between the Randstad Institute (a recruiting company) and the Observatory of Religious Experience at Work (Observatoire du fait religieux en entreprise, OFRE), a research company.

    Both studies, filling a huge knowledge-deficit on religious and ethnic demography, were widely reported in the media. France is a country well-equipped with demographers, scholars, professors and research institutes, but any official data or statistics based on race, origin or religion are prohibited by law.

    France has 66.6 million inhabitants, according to a report dated January 1, 2016 from the National Institute of Statistics (Insee). But census questionnaires prohibit any question about race, origin or religion. So in France, it is impossible to know how many Muslims, black people, white people, Catholics, Arabs, Jews, etc. live in the country.

    This prohibition is based on an old and once-healthy principle to avoid any discrimination in a country where "assimilation" is the rule. Assimilation, French-style, means that any foreigner who wants to live in the country has to copy the behavioral code of local population and marry a native quickly. This assimilation model worked perfectly for people of Spanish, Portuguese or Polish descent. But with Arabs and Muslims, it stopped.

    Now, however, despite all good intentions, the rule prohibiting collection of data that might lead to discrimination, has become a national security handicap.

    When any group of people, outspokenly acting on the basis of their religion or ethnicity, begin violently fighting the fundamentals of the society where you live, it becomes necessary — in fact urgent — to know what religions and ethnicities these are, and how many people they represent.

    The two studies in question, therefore, are not based on census data but on polls. The Institut Montaigne study, for example, writes that Muslims represent 5.6% of the metropolitan population of France, or exactly three million. However, Michèle Tribalat, a demographer specializing in immigration problems, wrote that the five million mark had been crossed in around 2014. The Pew Research Center estimated the Muslim population in France in mid-2010 to be 4.7 million. Other scholars, such as Azouz Begag, former Minister of Equality (he left the government in 2007) estimates the number of Muslims in France to be closer to 15 million.

    Institut Montaigne Study: The Secession of French Muslims

    The study by Institut Montaigne, released on September 18, is based on a poll conducted by Ifop (French Institute of Public Opinion), which surveyed 1,029 Muslims. The author of the study is Hakim el Karoui, a consultant who was an adviser to then Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin (2002-2005).

    Three main Muslim profiles were highlighted:

    First were the so-called "secular" (46%). These people said they were "totally secular, even when religion occupies an important place in their lives." Although they claim to be secular, many of them also belong to the group that favors all Muslim women wearing a hijab (58% of men and 70% of women). They also overlap with the group (60%) that supports wearing a hijab at school, although the hijab has been prohibited in schools since 2004. Many of these "seculars" also belong to the 70% of Muslims who "always" buy halal meat (only 6% never buy it). According to the study, wearing a hijab and eating only halal meat are considered by Muslims themselves as significant "markers" of Muslim identity.

     

    A second group of Muslims, the "Islamic Pride Group" represent a quarter (25%) of the roughly thousand people polled. They defined themselves primarily as Muslims and claim their right to observe their faith (mainly reduced to hijab and halal) in public. They reject, however, the niqab and polygamy. They say they respect secularism and the laws of the Republic, but most of them say they do not accept prohibiting the hijab at school.

     

    The last group, defined as the "Ultras", represent 28% of those polled, and the most authoritarian profile. They say they prefer to live apart from Republican values. For them, Islamic values and Islamic law, or sharia, come first, before the common law of the Republic. They approve of polygamy and of wearing the niqab or the burqa.

    "These 28% adhere to Islam in its most retrograde version, which has become for them a kind of identity. Islam is the mainstay of their revolt; and this revolt is embodied in an Islam of rupture, conspiracy theories and anti-Semitism," according to Hamid el Karoui in an interview with Journal du Dimanche.

    Hamid el Karoui, speaking of the opinions of French Muslims in an interview with Journal du Dimanche, said: "These 28% adhere to Islam in its most retrograde version, which has become for them a kind of identity. Islam is the mainstay of their revolt; and this revolt is embodied in an Islam of rupture, conspiracy theories and anti-Semitism."

    More importantly, these 28% exist predominantly among the young (50% are under 25). In other words, one out of every two young French Muslims is a Salafist of the most radical type, even if he does not belong to a mosque.

    The question is: how many will they be in five years, ten years, twenty years? It is important to ask, because polls always present a point in time, a freeze-frame of a situation. When we know that the veil and halal food restrictions are imposed on the whole family by "big brothers," we have to understand that a process is taking place, a secession process due to the re-Islamization of the whole Muslim community by the young.

    Journalist and author Elisabeth Schemla wrote in Le Figaro:

    To understand what re-Islamization means a definition of Islamism must be given. The most accurate is the definition given by one of his very fervent supporters, State Advisor Thierry Tuot, one of three judges chosen this summer to decide not to ban the burkini at the beach (…). Islamism, he writes, is the "public claim of a social behavior presented as a divine requirement and bursting into the public and political arena." In light of this definition, the Al Karoui report shows that Islamism is unalterably spreading.

    Islam at Work; Islamism on the Move

    This ticking time bomb is silently working… at work.

    A poll, conducted between April and June 2016 by the Randstad Institute and Observatory of the Religious Experience at Work (OFRE), surveying 1,405 managers in different companies, revealed that two managers out of every three (65%) were reporting that "religious behavior" is a regular manifestation in the workplace — up from 50% in 2015.

    Professor Lyonel Honoré, Director of OFRE and author of the study, recognizes quietly that "in 95% of cases," the "religious behavior at work is related to Muslims."

    To understand the importance of this "visible Islam" in French factories and offices today, we have to know that traditionally, the workplace was considered neutral space. The law did not prohibit any type of religious or political expression in the workplace, but by tradition, employees and employers considered that restraint must be shown by all in exercising their freedom of belief.

    The 2016 Ranstad study shows that this old tradition is over. Religious symbols are proliferating in the workplace, and 95% of these visible symbols are Islamic. Overt expressions and symbols of Christianity or Judaism at work do exist, of course, but are minimal compared to Islam.

    The survey considered two types of the expression of religious beliefs:

    1. Personal practices, such as the right to be missing for religious holidays, flexible working hours, the right to pray during work breaks, and the right to wear symbols of religious belief.
    2. Disturbances at work or breaches of rules, such as the refusal of men to work with a woman or take orders from a female manager, refusal to work with people who are not co-religionists, refusal to perform specific tasks, and proselytizing during work time.

    "In 2016," states the survey, "the wearing of religious symbols [hijab] became the top expression of religious belief (21% of cases, up from 17% in 2015 and 10% in 2014). The request to be absent because of religious holidays remains stable (18%) but now ranks in second place."

    Under "disturbances at work", this politically correct study notes that conflicts between employee and employer on religious grounds are few: a "minority event" and "only" 9% of religious disturbances in 2016. But figures for conflicts have nevertheless risen by 50%, up from 6% in 2015. Conflicts have also tripled since 2014 (3%) and nearly quintupled since 2013 (2%).

    Eric Manca, a lawyer in the law firm August & Debouzy who specializes in labor law and was assisting at the press conference, said that when a conflict on religious ground turns to litigation, "it is always a problem with Islam. Christians and Jews never turn to the court against their employer because of religion." When Islamists sue their employer, jurisprudence shows that the accusation is always based on "racism", and "discrimination" — charges that can only make employers regret having hired them in the first place.

    Sources of conflict listed include proselytizing (6%), and refusing to perform tasks (6%) — for instance, a delivery man declining to deliver alcohol to customers; refusing to work with a woman or under the direction of a woman (5%), and requesting to work only with Muslims (1%). These cases are concentrated in business sectors "such as automotive suppliers, construction, waste processing, supermarkets… and are located in peri-urban regions."

    Conclusions

    The French model of assimilation is over. As noted, it worked for everyone except French Muslims; and public schools seem unable today to transmit republican values, especially among young Muslims. According to Hakim el Karoui:

    "Muslims of France are living in the heart of multiple crises. Syria, of course, which shakes the spirit. But also the transformation of Arab societies where women take a new place: female students outnumber male students, girls are better educated than their fathers. Religion, in its authoritarian version, is a weapon of reaction against these evolutions. …. And finally, there is the social crisis: Muslims, two-thirds of child laborers and employees, are the first victims of deindustrialization."

    Islamization is growing everywhere. In city centers, most Arab women wear a veil, and in the suburbs, burqas and niqabs are increasingly common. At work, where non-religious behavior was usually the rule, managers try to learn how to deal with Islamist demands. In big corporations, such as Orange (telecom), a "director of diversity" was appointed to manage demands and conflicts. In small companies, managers are in disarray. Conflicts and litigation are escalating.

    Silence of the politicians. Despite the wide media coverage around these two studies, an astounding silence was the only thing heard from politicians. This is disturbing because Institut Montaigne's study also included some proposals to build an "Islam of France," such as putting an end to foreign funding of mosques, and local training religious and civil leaders. Other ideas, such as teaching Arabic in secular schools "to prevent parents from sending their children in Koranic schools" are quite strange because they would perpetuate the failed strategy of integrating Islamism through institutions. Young French Muslims, even those born in France, have difficulty speaking and writing proper French. That is why they need to speak and write French correctly before anything else.

    These two studies, although a start, are staggeringly insufficient. Politicians, journalists, and every citizen needs to learn more about Islam, its tenets and its goals in the country. It is unbelievable that the only tools at our disposal are inadequate opinion polls. Without knowledge, no political action — or any other action — is possible. It is a situation that immeasurably benefits aggressive political Islamists.

    Without more knowledge, the denial of Islamization, and an immobility in addressing it, will continue. Willful blindness is the mother of the civil war to come — unless the people and their politicians choose to submit to Islam without a fight.

  • INSiDe RoBBY MooK'S MoM'S BaSeMeNT…

    INSIDE ROBBY MOOK'S MOM'S BASEMENT

  • Big Brother Is Watching – New Emails Reveal Homeland Security Tracks License Plates At Gun Shows

    Newly discovered emails from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), reveal efforts of the federal government to track American citizens who visit gun shows across the country.  The discovery came via a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request from the Wall Street Journal that revealed internal emails from an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agent requesting the support of local California police officers to “deploy license plate readers” at a 2010 gun show in Del Mar, California.

    In an email titled “Request for Assistance,” an ICE investigator wrote, “We would like to see if you can support an outbound guns/ammo operation on (redacted) at the Crossroads (Del Mar) Gun Show. We would like to deploy license plate readers.” The email, whose sender and recipient are redacted, includes a large section of operational details that are also redacted.

    According to the emails, the program was intended to collect license plate data from gun shows and then cross reference that data with border crossings in an attempt to identify gun runners.  Of course, the program has drawn criticism from gun rights organizations across the country who argue that this form of mass surveillance draws undue suspicion to people who happen to engage in two completely legal activities. 

    Jay Stanley, a lawyer at the American Civil Liberties Union, said the gun-show surveillance “highlights the problem with mass collection of data.” He said law enforcement can take two entirely legal activities, like buying guns and crossing the border, “and because those two activities in concert fit somebody’s idea of a crime, a person becomes inherently suspicious.”

     

    Erich Pratt, executive director of Gun Owners of America, said his group also opposes such surveillance. “Information on law-abiding gun owners ends up getting recorded, stored, and registered, which is a violation of the 1986 Firearm Owners Protection Act and of the Second Amendment,” Mr. Pratt said.

    Gun Show

     

    Of course, efforts to target gun owners is nothing new.  Just last week we pointed out a new ballot measure being considered by voters in Washington state, officially referred to as Initiative Measure 1491, that would allow authorities to seize guns from people considered “significantly more likely to commit violence toward themselves or others in the near future” (see “WA Goes After Pre-Crime: Gun Confiscation Proposed For Those ‘Likely To Commit Violence In The Near Future’“).  In most instances, seizing someone’s personal property on the mere suggestion of an ex-girlfriend would be considered outrageous but for gun owners our government seems to be increasingly willing make exceptions.

    This type of data gathering continues to push the limits on how far the federal government is allowed to go in terms of mass surveillance before actually violating the constitutionally protected rights of American citizens to privacy.    

    License-plate readers are increasingly used by law-enforcement agencies as a way to search for fugitives, missing children, and, recently, the man who allegedly set off a bomb in New York City.

     

    But their use at gun shows occupies a murky legal ground. While technology and data collection have greatly expanded the ability of government and companies to monitor citizens’ activity, U.S. courts, lawmakers, and senior officials have been slow to make clear what types of mass surveillance cross the line into violations of constitutional rights.

     

    It has long been legal for police officers to record license plates they observe in the course of ordinary life. License-plate-reader technology, however, allows those observations to become mass-data collection. A single camera can record thousands of vehicle plates an hour, capturing the data at high speeds, in thick traffic and in other situations that the human eye cannot.

     

    Boosters of the technology say it is a way to find a criminal in a sea of otherwise indistinguishable cars. Critics say that to find that criminal the government is tracking the movements of millions of innocent people—adding up to detailed surveillance of their daily lives and creating data that can be misused.

    As the CEO of the “Crossroads of the West” gun show points out, the show attracted 6,000 – 9,000 customers who would probably “be resentful of having been the target of that kind of surveillance.”

    Bob Templeton, the CEO of Crossroads of the West, which puts on the gun show, said he knew local police had been at the show, but was surprised to learn that federal agents had been gathering data about customers. The show at the Del Mar Fairgrounds typically draws 6,000 to 9,000 customers, meaning thousands of cars are in the parking lot, he said.

     

    “It’s obviously intrusive and an activity that hasn’t proven to have any legitimate law-enforcement purpose,” said Mr. Templeton. “I think my customers would be resentful of having been the target of that kind of surveillance.”

    So, just to clarify today’s events, the DHS can conduct mass surveillance of the American public just for choosing to attend a gun show but the FBI has to sign a “side agreement promising to physically destroy Cheryl Mills’ and Heather Samuelson’s computers before being able to review evidence in an actual criminal investigation? 

  • 40 Million Russians To Take Part In "Nuclear Disaster" Drill, Days After US General Warns Of War With Moscow

    As relations between Russia and the US disintegrate as a result of the escalating proxy war in Syria, which today culminated with Putin halting a Plutonium cleanup effort with the US, shortly before the US State Department announced it would end negotiations with Russia over Syria, tomorrow an unprecedented 40 million Russian citizens, as well as 200,000 specialists from “emergency rescue divisions” and 50,000 units of equipment are set to take part in a four day-long civil defense, emergency evacuation and disaster preparedness drill, the Russian Ministry for Civil Defense reported on its website.

    According to the ministry, an all-Russian civil defense drill involving federal and regional executive authorities and local governments dubbed “Organization of civil defense during large natural and man-caused disasters in the Russian Federation” will start tomorrow morning in all constituent territories of Russia and last until October 7. While the ministry does not specify what kind of “man-caused disaster” it envisions, it would have to be a substantial one for 40 million Russians to take part in the emergency preparedness drill. Furthermore, be reading the guidelines of the drill, we can get a rather good idea of just what it is that Russia is “preparing” for.

    The website adds that “the main goal of the drill is to practice organization of management during civil defense events and emergency and fire management, to check preparedness of management bodies and forces of civil defense on all levels to respond to natural and man-made disasters and to take civil defense measures.” Oleg Manuilov, director of the Civil Defence Ministry explained that the exercise will be a test of how the population would respond to a “disaster” under an “emergency” situation.

    Some further details, on the 3-stage, 4 day drill:

    I stage: organization of civil defense actions

     

    The stage is going to practice notification and gathering of senior officials of federal and regional executive authorities, local governments and civil defense forces, deployment of civil defense management system on all levels, readying civil defense communication and notification system. After the National Crisis Management Center have brought the management signals, all management bodies, state authorities, forces and facilities on duty and people will be notified through notification systems available.

     

    II stage: Planning and organization of civil defense actions. Deploying a team of civil defense forces and facilities designed to respond to large disasters and fires.

     

    The stage plans to practice deployment a mobile interagency multi-functional team of civil defense forces and facilities in each federal district in order to carry our rescue and other urgent operations, civil defense actions and to deploy special civil defense units in constituent territories; putting rescue military units, divisions of the federal fire service, rescue units on standby. The stage provides for the team to be reinforced, activation of backup control centers and practicing collecting and exchanging information in the field of civil defense.

     

    III stage: Organization of actions of civil defense management bodies and forces for response to large disasters and fires.

     

    The stage will deal with the use of the civil defense team to respond to large disasters and fires, setting up aerial and mobile control centers, revising of routes for save evacuation of people, organization of vital services; taking off fire and rescue units of the federal fire service to put out fires and conduct rescue operations at potentially dangerous facilities, including closed administrative territorial entities.

     

    The drill will rehearse radiation, chemical and biological protection of the personnel and population during emergencies at crucial and potentially dangerous facilities. Fire safety, civil defense and human protection at social institutions and public buildings are also planned to be checked. Response units will deploy radiation, chemical and biological monitoring centers and sanitation posts at the emergency areas, while laboratory control networks are going to be put on standby.

    The fact that among the measures tasked for the civil defense team will be a response to “disasters and fires” as well as the rehearsal of “radiation, chemical and biological protection”, makes it clear that Russia is about to hold its biggest nuclear war drill since perhaps the end of the Cold War.

    Why now? Perhaps, in addition to the sharp deterioration in relations between Russia and the west, where tensions are on par with the cold war, another answer may come from the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford, who last week warned Congress that the implementation of a No Fly Zone in Syria as proposed by John Kerry recently, and a centerpiece of Hillary’s foreign policy strategy, would result in World War III.

    During testimony before the Senate Committee on Armed Services last week General Joseph Dunford rang the alarm over a policy shift that is gaining more traction within the halls of Washington following the collapse of the ceasefire brokered by the United States and Russia in Syria saying that it could result in a major international war which he was not prepared to advocate on behalf of. Senator Roger Wicker of Mississippi asked about Hillary Clinton’s proposal for a no fly zone in Syria in response to allegations that Russia and Syria have intensified their aerial bombardment of rebel-held East Aleppo since the collapse of the ceasefire.

    “What about the option of controlling the airspace so that barrel bombs cannot be dropped? What do you think of that option?” asked Wicker. “Right now, Senator, for us to control all of the airspace in Syria would require us to go to war against Syria and Russia. That is a pretty fundamental decision that certainly I’m not going to make,” said the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff suggesting the policy was too hawkish even for military leaders.

    As a reminder, Hillary Clinton strongly argued in favor of a no fly zone ever since October 2015, just days after Russia began a bombing campaign aimed at maintaining the stability of the Syrian government. “I personally would be advocating now for a no fly zone and humanitarian corridors to try to stop the carnage on the ground and from the air, to try to provide some way to take stock of what’s happening, to try to stem the flow of refugees,” said Clinton in an interview with NBC in October 2015.

    Despite the warnings, the former Secretary of State and current presidential candidate, who has a well-known hawkish position towards regime change and matters related to Russia, has continued to advocate this position which has gained traction in recent weeks among top US diplomats.

    Clinton is note alone: as the WSJ reported in June, more than 50 US diplomats endorsed a notorious dissent memo, demanding that that the Obama administration employ military options against Assad, such as the implementation of a no fly zone if not a direct attack against the Syrian regime. The argument from the diplomats is that the situation in Syria will continue to devolve without direct action by the US military, an argument of dubious legality if undertaken unilaterally without a UN Security Council resolution but which as Sputnik reports, the US Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power has been laying the groundwork for under the controversial “right to protect” theory of international law arguing that Russia’s opposition to a resolution should be ignored because they are a party to the conflict.

    Russia, in turn, has countered that if the Assad regime falls then terrorist groups including ISIS and al-Nusra Front will likely fill the resulting power vacuum descending the country into an even greater harbor for international terrorism. Ultimately, the Syrian conflict is fundamentally about the transport of energy, and whether Russia maintains its dominance over European natural gas imports, or if – with the Syrian regime deposed – a Qatar natural gas pipeline can cross the territory and make its way to Europe.

    As for the Russian nuclear war drill, we can only hope that any such rising hints of nuclear warfare remain in the realm of the purely theoretical.

  • More Confessions Of An Economic Hit Man: "This Time, They’re Coming For Your Democracy"

    Submitted by Sarah van Gelder via YesMagazine.com,

    Twelve years ago, John Perkins published his book, Confessions of an Economic Hit Man, and it rapidly rose up The New York Times’ best-seller list. In it, Perkins describes his career convincing heads of state to adopt economic policies that impoverished their countries and undermined democratic institutions. These policies helped to enrich tiny, local elite groups while padding the pockets of U.S.-based transnational corporations.

    Perkins was recruited, he says, by the National Security Agency (NSA), but he worked for a private consulting company. His job as an undertrained, overpaid economist was to generate reports that justified lucrative contracts for U.S. corporations, while plunging vulnerable nations into debt. Countries that didn’t cooperate saw the screws tightened on their economies. In Chile, for example, President Richard Nixon famously called on the CIA to “make the economy scream” to undermine the prospects of the democratically elected president, Salvador Allende.

    If economic pressure and threats didn’t work, Perkins says, the jackals were called to either overthrow or assassinate the noncompliant heads of state. That is, indeed, what happened to Allende, with the backing of the CIA.

    Perkins’ book has been controversial, and some have disputed some of his claims, including, for example, that the NSA was involved in activities beyond code making and breaking.

    Perkins has just reissued his book with major updates. The basic premise of the book remains the same, but the update shows how the economic hit man approach has evolved in the last 12 years. Among other things, U.S. cities are now on the target list. The combination of debt, enforced austerity, underinvestment, privatization, and the undermining of democratically elected governments is now happening here.

    I couldn’t help but think about Flint, Michigan, under emergency management as I read The New Confessions of an Economic Hit Man.

    I interviewed Perkins at his home in the Seattle area. In addition to being a recovering economic hit man, he is a grandfather and a founder and board member of Dream Change and The Pachamama Alliance, organizations that work for “a world that future generations will want to inherit.”

    Sarah van Gelder: What’s changed in our world since you wrote the first Confessions of an Economic Hit Man?

    John Perkins: Things have just gotten so much worse in the last 12 years since the first Confessions was written. Economic hit men and jackals have expanded tremendously, including the United States and Europe.

    Back in my day we were pretty much limited to what we called the third world, or economically developing countries, but now it’s everywhere.

    And in fact, the cancer of the corporate empire has metastasized into what I would call a failed global death economy. This is an economy that’s based on destroying the very resources upon which it depends, and upon the military. It’s become totally global, and it’s a failure.

    van Gelder: So how has this switched from us being the beneficiaries of this hit-man economy, perhaps in the past, to us now being more of the victims of it?

    Perkins: It’s been interesting because, in the past, the economic hit man economy was being propagated in order to make America wealthier and presumably to make people here better off, but as this whole process has expanded in the U.S. and Europe, what we’ve seen is a tremendous growth in the very wealthy at the expense of everybody else.

    On a global basis we now know that 62 individuals have as many assets as half the world’s population.

    We of course in the U.S. have seen how our government is frozen, it’s just not working. It’s controlled by the big corporations and they’ve really taken over. They’ve understood that the new market, the new resource, is the U.S. and Europe, and the incredibly awful things that have happened to Greece and Ireland and Iceland, are now happening here in the U.S.

    We’re seeing this situation where we can have what statistically shows economic growth, and at the same time increased foreclosures on homes and unemployment.

    van Gelder: Is this the same kind of dynamic about debt that leads to emergency managers who then turn over the reins of the economy to private enterprises? The same thing that you are seeing in third-world countries?

    Perkins: Yes, when I was an economic hit man, one of the things that we did, we raised these huge loans for these countries, but the money never actually went to the countries, it went to our own corporations to build infrastructure in those countries. And when the countries could not pay off their debt, we insisted that they privatize their water systems, their sewage systems, their electric systems.

    Now we’re seeing that same thing happen in the United States. Flint, Michigan, is a very good example of that. This is not a U.S. empire, it’s a corporate empire protected and supported by the U.S. military and the CIA. But it is not an American empire, it’s not helping Americans. It’s exploiting us in the same way that we used to exploit all these other countries around the world.

    van Gelder: So it seems like Americans are starting to get this. What is your sense about where the American public is in terms of readiness to do something?

    Perkins: As I travel around the U.S., as I travel around the world, I see that people are really waking up. We’re getting it. We’re understanding that we live on a very fragile space station, and it’s got no shuttles; we can’t get off. We’ve got to fix it, we’ve got to take care of it, and we’re in the process of destroying it. The big corporations are destroying it, but the big corporations are just run by people, and they’re vulnerable to us. If we really consider it, the market place is a democracy, if we just use it as such.

    van Gelder: I want to push back on that one a little bit because so many corporations don’t sell to ordinary consumers, they sell to other companies or to governments, and so many corporations have such an entrenched reward system where if one person doesn’t perform by exploiting the earth they’ll simply get replaced with somebody else who does.

    Perkins: I’ve recently been speaking at a number of corporate conferences. I hear time after time after time that many of them want to leave a green legacy. They’ve got children, they’ve got grandchildren, they understand we can’t go on like this.

    So what they say is, “Go out there, start consumer movements. What I want is to receive a hundred thousand emails from my customers saying, ’Hey, I love your product but I’m not going to buy it anymore until you pay your workers a fair wage in Indonesia, or wherever, or clean up the environment, or do something.’ And then I can take that to my board of directors and my big stockholders, to the people who really control whether I get hired or fired.”

    van Gelder: I agree, and those campaigns, as you know, have been going on for decades now, and sometimes they have little incremental changes around the edge. But then we look back on it later and we see that there’s enormous resistance because of the profits to be made in continuing the system.

    Perkins: I think we’ve seen tremendous changes, though. Just in the last few years, we’ve seen organic foods become very big. Twenty years ago they couldn’t make a go of it. We’ve seen women having bigger positions in corporations, and minorities, and we need to get better at this.

    We’ve seen the labeling of many foods. GMOs aren’t included yet, but nutrition and calories and so forth are. And what we really need to do is convince corporations that they’ve got to have a new goal.

    We’ve got to let corporations know what their job is: It’s to serve a public interest, and make a decent rate of return for investors. We need investors, but beyond that, every corporation should serve a public interest, should serve the earth, should serve future generations.

    van Gelder: I want to ask you about the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and other trade deals. Is there any way that we can beat these things back so they don’t continue supercharging the corporate sphere at the expense of local democracies?

    Perkins: They’re devastating; they give sovereignty to corporations over governments. It’s ridiculous.

    We’re seeing terrible desperation from people in Central America trying to get away from a system that’s broken, primarily because our trade agreements and our policies toward Latin America have broken them. And we’re seeing, of course, those similar things in the Middle East and in Africa, these waves of immigrants that are swarming into Europe from the Middle East. These terrible problems that have been created because of the greed of big corporations.

    I was just in Central America and what we talk about in the U.S. as being an immigration problem is really a trade agreement problem.

    They’re not allowed to impose tariffs under the trade agreements—NAFTA and CAFTA—but the U.S. is allowed to subsidize its farmers. Those governments can’t afford to subsidize their farmers. So our farmers can undercut theirs, and that’s destroyed the economies, and a number of other things, and that’s why we’ve got immigration problems.

    van Gelder: Can you talk about the violence that people are fleeing in Central America, and how that links back to the role the U.S. has had there?

    Perkins: Three or four years ago the CIA orchestrated a coup against the democratically elected president of Honduras, President Zelaya, because he stood up to Dole and Chiquita and some other big, global, basically U.S.-based corporations.

    He wanted to raise the minimum wage to a reasonable level, and he wanted some land reform that would make sure that his own people were able to make money off their own land, rather than having big international corporations do it.

    The big corporations couldn’t stand for this. He wasn’t assassinated but he was overthrown in a coup and sent to another country, and replaced by a terribly brutal dictator, and today Honduras is one of the most violent, homicidal countries in the hemisphere.

    It’s frightening what we’ve done. And when that happens to a president, it sends a message to every other president throughout the hemisphere, and in fact throughout the world: Don’t mess with us. Don’t mess with the big corporations. Either cooperate and get rich in the process, and have all your friends and family get rich in the process, or go get overthrown or assassinated. It’s a very strong message.

    van Gelder: I wanted to ask about your time spent in Ecuador with indigenous people. I’m wondering if you could talk about how that experience has changed you?

    Perkins: Many years ago when I was a Peace Corps volunteer in the Amazon with the Shuar indigenous people there, I was dying. I got very ill, and my life was saved in one night by a shaman. I’d come out of business school this is 1968, ’69, and I had no idea what a shaman was, but it changed my life by helping me understand that what was killing me was a mindset—what they would call the dream.

    I spent many years studying all this, and working with many different indigenous groups, and what I saw was the power of the mindset.

    The shamans teach us—the indigenous people teach us—once you change the mindset, then it’s pretty easy to have the objective reality change around it. So, instead of the kind of economy we have now, a death economy, if we can change the mindset we can very quickly move into a life economy.

    van Gelder: So what are the mechanisms by which a change in consciousness actually shifts things on the ground?

    Perkins: Well, in my opinion the biggest catalyst that needs to go forward to change this is we’ve got to change the corporations. We’ve got to move from that goal that was stated by Milton Friedman in the 1970s, that the only responsibility of corporations is to maximize profits regardless of social and environmental costs.

    We change the big corporations by telling them we’re not going to buy from you anymore unless you change your goal. No longer should your goal be to maximize profits regardless of social and environmental costs. Make a decent rate of return for your investors, but serve us, we the people, or we’re not buying from you.

    van Gelder : You quote Tom Paine in your book: “If there must be trouble let it be in my day that my child may have peace.” Why did you decide to use that quote?

    Perkins : Well, I think Tom Paine was brilliant in that statement. He understood how that would impact people. And he wrote that statement in December 1776.

    Washington had lost just about every battle he ever fought; he wasn’t getting any support from the Continental Congress; they weren’t giving his men guns or ammunition or even blankets and shoes, and he was bogged down at Valley Forge. Paine realizes that he’s got to somehow write something that will rally people, and there’s nothing that rallies people more than to think about their children

    That to me is where we’re at right now. I’ve got a daughter and I’ve got an 8-year-old grandson. Bring on the trouble for me, OK, but let’s create a world they’re going to want to live in. And let’s understand that my 8-year-old grandson cannot have an environmentally sustainable and regenerative, socially just, fulfilling world unless every child on the planet has that.

    And this is new. It used to be all we had to worry about was our local community, maybe our country. But we didn’t have to worry about the world. But what we know now is that we can’t have peace anywhere in the world, we can’t have peace in the U.S., unless everybody has peace.

     

  • FBI Allowed 2 Hillary Aides To "Destroy" Their Laptops In Newly Exposed "Side Agreements"

    Just when you think the Hillary email scandal can’t get any more bizarre and corrupt, it does. According to a just released letter from the Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, Bob Goodlatte (R – Virginia), to Attorney General Lynch, the FBI apparently struck “side agreements” with both Cheryl Mills an Heather Samuelson to “destroy” their “laptops after concluding its search.”

    In the attached, Goodlatte questioned why the destruction of the laptops used to sort Clinton’s emails was included in immunity deals that already protected Mills and Samuelson from prosecution based on the records recovered from their computers. Furthermore, we learn that according to the immunity agreements, FBI agents limited their search to documents authored before Jan. 2015. The Republican argued such parameters prevented investigators from examining potential proof of the destruction of evidence that may have occurred after that date, and that the deals offered to Mills and Samuelson already protected the aides from prosecution related to their alleged roles in the deletion of federal records.

    “Like many things about this case, these new materials raise more questions than answers,” Goodlatte wrote of the “side agreements,” which lawmakers were allowed to read even though they have not yet been released in full to members of Congress.

    The immunity deals for Mills and Samuelson were negotiated before they agreed to hand over their laptops which we now learn were subsequently destroyed.

    While we parse the letter to understand what basis for action the FBI may have had when pursuing such a course of action, we can’t help but note that the FBI appears to have acted as a co-conspirator in what appears to be an unprecedented case of destruction of key evidence.

    Below are some of the key excerpts from the letter (full document attached at the end of this post):

    As part of the Judiciary Committee’s ongoing oversight of Secretary Clinton’s unauthorized use of a private email server during her tenure as Secretary of State, the Justice Department (DOJ) provided in camera review’ of certain immunity agreements. After a specific request from the Committee, based on references made in the immunity agreements to certain “side agreements,” DOJ subsequently provided in camera review of those “side agreements” between DOJ, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and Beth Wilkinson, the lawyer representing both Cheryl Mills and Heather Samuelson. Like many things about this case, these new materials raise more questions than answers. Please provide a written response to the below questions and make DOJ staff available for a briefing on this matter no later than October 10, 2016.

     

    1.    Why did the FBI agree to destroy both Cheryl Mills’ and Heather Samuelson’s laptops after concluding its search?

     

    2.    Doesn’t the willingness of Ms. Mills and Ms. Samuelson to have their laptops destroyed by the FBI contradict their claim that the laptops could have been withheld because they contained non-relevant, privileged information? If so, doesn’t that undermine the claim that the side agreements were necessary?

     

    7.   Please explain why DOJ agreed to limit their search of the Mills and Samuelson laptops to a date no later than January 31, 2015 and therefore give up any opportunity to find evidence related to the destruction of evidence or obstruction of justice related to Secretary Clinton’s unauthorized use of a private email server during her tenure as Secretary of State.

     

    8.   Why was this time limit necessary when Ms. Mills and Ms. Samuelson were granted immunity for any potential destruction of evidence charges?

     

    9.   Please confirm whether a grand jury was convened to investigate Secretary Clinton’s unauthorized use of a private email server. Disclosure is authorized under Fed. R. Crim. P. 6(e)(3)(A)(i) and (e)(3)(D).

    Of course, since this will be promptly spun as just more “plumes of smoke” we hope people will stop trying to “criminalize behavior that is normal.”

    Link to letter here.

  • Kuroda Ruined His Chance Of A Second Term By Doing "Stupid Things", Abe Advisor Says

    It was one thing when Wall Street slammed Haruhiko Kuroda, and the BOJ, for the latest “QQE with Yield Curve Control” monetary contraption unveiled last month by the Japanese central bank as a “disaster”, coupled with such dire forecasts “it may be over for the BOJ.” But when politicians such Nobuyuki Nakahara, a close advisor to Japan’s prime minister on the economy and an intellectual father of the Bank of Japan’s first run at quantitative easing in 2001, say that “Kuroda has ruined his chances of getting a second full term”, things start to get serious for everyone’s favorite monetary policy Peter Pan.

    In a stinging attack on the BOJ’s recent actions, Nakahara said during an interview on September 30 that the central bank’s switch to yield-curve targeting compounds its earlier error of adopting negative interest rates (which we learned was launched following “peer pressure” by billionaires and policy makers at Davos, early in 2016) and is a disappointing move away from monetary-base expansion. Abe’s advisor also said the decision to conduct a comprehensive review of monetary policy had invited defeat on reflationist efforts and would raise questions about Abenomics as a whole.

    Echoing our thoughts on QQEWYCC, Nakahara said that the BOJ is “trying to clean up the mess of negative rates. It’s impossible to do a stupid thing like keeping the yield curve under government control. They changed the regime to rates from quantity, meaning those who support quantitative easing were defeated. Reflationists on the BOJ policy board lost. An exit from deflation is going to be far away.” Kuroda has insisted after the BOJ’s policy decision that it hadn’t reached the practical limits of its bond buying and wasn’t moving toward tapering.

    Under the new yield-curve regime, the central bank has pledged to keep the yield on benchmark 10-year debt around zero. The problem in this, according to Nakahara, is that if the yield falls further below zero, the BOJ will have to slow its sovereign debt purchases to push the yield back up and markets will interpret this as tapering. This in turn will push the yen up and stocks down. This was explained previously on this website,  and was observed in practical terms this past Friday when the BOJ’s indicated purchases for super-long-term debt could see the central bank buying the smallest amount since expanding QQE two years ago. As Bloomberg reporter previously, for the first operations next month, BOJ plans to buy 110b yen for debt maturing in more than 25 years, 190b yen for bonds with maturities of 10 to 25 years, down by 10b yen each compared with the latest operation, the BOJ said on Friday.  This would be the smallest purchases of debt of more than 10 years since BOJ expanded quantitative easing in Oct. 2014, and is the definitional equivalent of “tapering.”

    Perhaps shaken by the comments, in parliament on Monday Bloomberg reported that Kuroda defended his policies and reiterated that there is room for additional monetary easing, adding that the recent changes have strengthened the previous framework and increased the sustainability of his policy. Ultimately, whether or not he will be reappointed to another term is a matter for the government and the parliament to decide, Kuroda said.

    Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga told reporters he was “aware that there are various opinions regarding monetary policy among private-sector economists and critics. I want to decline to comment on individual views,” said Suga. “The government wants the BOJ to continue make its utmost efforts to reach the price target as early as possible.”

    As Bloomberg adds, after being greeted with fanfare when he took the helm, Kuroda, 71, now faces a reversal of fortunes on multiple fronts. Markets – that biggest driver behind “Abenomics” – have moved against him and critics are growing more vocal. The extended honeymoon he enjoyed with a rising stock market and falling yen are long gone and his 2 percent inflation goal is nowhere in sight. Kuroda has less than 19 months to go in his term. While no BOJ governor has been tapped for a second five-year term since the 1960s, Kuroda’s central role in Abenomics has led to speculation that he may be different.

    “They should end negative rates, but they took action to save face and offset the failure of negative rates,” Nakahara said. “Bringing the rate up to zero means tightening, causing the yen to rise. The current framework is very vulnerable to external factors.

    Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings said on Monday that the negative rate may be cut to minus 0.5% , from minus 0.1% now, by the end of 2017. This would weigh on the profitability of commercial banks, Fitch said. However, Moody’s Investors Service was more upbeat and raised its forecast for real gross domestic product growth in Japan this year to 0.7 percent.

    In June Nakahara suggested that the central bank boost its purchases of Japanese government bonds to 100 trillion yen ($988 billion) a year, from 80 trillion yen. The governor’s propensity to deliver surprises also drew the ire of Nakahara. He described the about-face in adopting negative rates in January – which came the same month as ruling this out – as being “like the attack of Pearl Harbor.”

    * * *

    One person, however, who did not share Nakahara’s gloomy perspective on Abenomics, is RBC’s Charlie McElligott, who in a note today, explained why the BOJ’s announcement last week merely sets the stage for much more aggressive action in the future.

    This is what he said:

    KURODA IN A CORNER = ASYMMETRICAL POLICY RISK: The final point above regarding Kuroda mentality and the BoJ is of great importance for global risk assets.  Japan is the “weathervane” for markets and their sentiment towards QE monpol, which is how our most recent version of the “taper tantrum” with the global long-end selloff originated there following the Sakurai / JGB curve steepening commentary. 

     

    Todd Cross on our Asia USD Rates Trading desk has been making the case that Kuroda is being further ‘backed into a corner’ via the increasingly negative rhetoric from his former peers…which in turn will only make him MORE LIKELY to get asymmetrical on policy at the next meeting.  Todd’s view is that the BoJ now has a “free option to exercise” with Kuroda, where since he will be either read as “hero” (if “kitchen-sinking-it” works) or “scapegoat” (if the policy fails, he’ll be out of a job)…so in a sense, the BoJ is liberated to act MORE AGGRESSIVELY on stimulus.  This also ties-in nicely to a thought we’ve been discussing for a while now within the “RBC Big Picture” too, which has been the market’s misinterpretation that the BoJ “assessment” outcome was a shift towards ‘curve control / yield targeting,’ and a move AWAY from NIRP…when in fact, we are more confident than ever that the BoJ will be pushing even MORE negative on rates.  And “not for nuthin,” but Kuroda himself stated in front of the Japanese Parliament today that the BoJ has further room to add stimulus.

     

    The mix of the market being “lulled to sleep” thinking that the BoJ has “moved away from NIRP” into an increasingly-threatened Kuroda (who, along with Abe, believes that negative interest rates are the ‘key monpol vehicle’ to drive inflation) is a dangerous dynamic for global risk if they do indeed “shock” markets with more NIRP.  The most brutal part of this scenario?  We could get the ‘policy surprise’ call “right,” but get a completely binary response in $yen / JGB markets.  The “macro minds” team is having a ton of debate on whether we see a stronger or weaker $yen if this did indeed “play out.”  A purely “mechanical” market response would seemingly see the VERY substantial ‘long Yen’ positioning get spooked by such a surprise and get ‘puked.’  BUTTTTTTT, a view where a policy shock causes a counter-intuitive flight to quality / risk-aversion response in Yen (as experienced since the initial NIRP announcement) could see $yen travel to mid-90s in a heartbeat. 

    Whatever the outcome for the BOJ, and Kuroda, one thing is increasingly clear: even the central bankers are now in openly uncharted waters, and having largely exhausted most options, not even they know where the hyper-unorthofox monetary policies will take them, which for an entity that can purchase any and every asset using an unlimited source of funds, is a truly concerning place to be.

  • Dilbert Creator Scott Adams "Shadowbanned" From Twitter After Trump Support

    Following the permanent banning of conservative commentator Milo Yiannopoulos from using its service; the suspension of the account of Glenn Reynolds, aka @instapundit and creator of the Instapundit blog, a University of Tennessee law professor and a conservative columnist for USA TODAY; and blocking veteran reporter Mahir Zeynalov after bowing to pressure from Turkish president Erdogan; last week saw the ‘shadowbanning’ of thoughtful – non-violent – twitter-er Scott Adams – the creator of the Dilbert cartoon character.

    Following a blog post daring to discuss how “dangerous” Donald Trump was compared to Hillary Clinton… (excerpt below)

    …the alleged risks of each candidate so you can see how they compare on the “scariness” dimension.

     

    Alleged Clinton Risks

    1. Dementia risk (because of age)
    2. Low energy (maybe can’t perform the job)
    3. Temperament (alleged to yell and throw things)
    4. Might allow more terrorists into country via immigration
    5. Influenced by lobbyists to start wars (Eisenhower warned of this)
    6. Drinks alcohol (We don’t know how much or how often)
    7. General brain health is questionable lately
    8. Adversaries won’t know who she serves or how she will react.

     

    Alleged Trump Risks

    1. Dementia risk (because of age)
    2. Trump is “literally Hitler” (This risk is cognitive dissonance, not real)
    3. Con man (Sure, but we’ll be watching him closely)
    4. Temperament (responds proportionately every time)
    5. Race riots (Clinton’s side created this risk by framing Trump as a racist)
    6. Inexperience (But Trump routinely succeeds where he has no experience)

     

    If you think Trump is risky because of his “temperament” or because he is “literally Hitler” you are experiencing cognitive dissonance caused by Clinton’s persuasion game. I mean that literally. And remember that I’m a trained hypnotist. That doesn’t mean I’m always right, but it does mean I’m trained to spot cognitive dissonance and you probably aren’t.

     

    I don’t think any of us is smart enough to evaluate the relative risk of either candidate. And that’s my point. If you think Trump is the dangerous one, that isn’t supported by his history, his patterns, or the facts. It is literally an illusion created by his opponents.

    Scott Adams asked his followers for examples of Clinton supporters being violent against peaceful Trump supports in public… which seems to have ‘triggered’ some people and got Adams “Shadowbanned” from Twitter

    This weekend I got “shadowbanned” on Twitter. It lasted until my followers noticed and protested. Shadowbanning prevents my followers from seeing my tweets and replies, but in a way that is not obvious until you do some digging.

     

    Why did I get shadowbanned?

     

    Beats me.

     

    But it was probably because I asked people to tweet me examples of Clinton supporters being violent against peaceful Trump supporters in public. I got a lot of them. It was chilling.

     

    Late last week my Twitter feed was invaded by an army of Clinton trolls (it’s a real thing) leaving sarcastic insults and not much else on my feed. There was an obvious similarity to them, meaning it was organized.

     

    At around the same time, a bottom-feeder at Slate wrote a hit piece on me that had nothing to do with anything. Except obviously it was politically motivated. It was so lame that I retweeted it myself. The timing of the hit piece might be a coincidence, but I stopped believing in coincidences this year.

     

    All things considered, I had a great week. I didn’t realize I was having enough impact to get on the Clinton enemies list. I don’t think I’m supposed to be happy about any of this, but that’s not how I’m wired.

     

    Mmm, critics. Delicious 🙂

     

     

    P.S. The one and only speaking gig I had on my calendar for the coming year cancelled yesterday because they decided to “go in a different direction.” I estimate my opportunity cost from speaking events alone to be around $1 million. That’s based on how the rate of offers went from several per month (for decades) to zero this year. Blogging about Trump is expensive.

     

    But it is also a system, not a goal. I wrote a book about that.

    Oh and we are sure it is just coincidence that Dilbert’s blog site is currently down…

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Today’s News 3rd October 2016

  • Why American Military Doctrine Is Doomed For Failure

    Submitted by Federico Pieraccini via Strategic-Culture.org,

    An analysis of US generals’ growing dissatisfaction with the political leadership in Washington sheds new light on the direction in which the American military machine is heading. In particular, it is interesting to observe the military planning for the future of the sea, air, space, cyberspace, and land forces.

    At the end of the Cold War, the US armed forces found themselves without any real peer, causing them to gradually alter their strategy and investments in war and conflicts. They transitioned from being a large numerical force geared toward fighting opponents of a similar caliber (the USSR) in accordance with a specific military strategy, to a force focused on hybrid adversaries (regular or militia forces) or foes that were not their equal (Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Yugoslavia, and Libya). The US military accordingly proceeded to change its planning and tactics to satisfy the demands of the new tenants in the White House, the notorious Neoconservatives. What resulted was a military doctrine centered on the concept of a unipolar world and aimed at global domination.

    Since the early 90s, policy-makers in Washington have had as their objective the utopian goal of global hegemony, and in order to accomplish this the US armed forces had to expand and create new control centers (USAFRICOM, USNORTHCOM), in addition to those already in existence (USEUCOM, USPACOM, USSOUTHCOM, USSOCOM, USSTRATCOM, USTRANSCOM), in every corner of the planet.

    This is a typical example of imperial overreach, which has historically been the impetus for the collapse of several kingdoms and empires over the centuries.

    The operational capabilities of the US military machine from the 90s to the mid-2000s remained more or less unchanged in every major conflict in which it was involved: Yugoslavia in 1999, Afghanistan in 2001, and Iraq in 2003. These were conflicts in which the defense forces of these nations could not hope to match the attacker's power. Weak air defences were a common denominator for all these nations – a vulnerability that has always been the prerequisite for wars such as those in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as the US ability to attain air superiority and thus subsequently enjoy unchallenged air space.

    Carpet bombing, coupled with the use of staggering numbers of cruise missiles, destroyed the anti-aircraft defenses of both countries, paving the way for massive ground or airborne invasions. One example still fresh in everyone’s mind was the intensity of the US strike in the early days of the Iraq war in 2003, which brought unprecedented levels of death and destruction.

    Yet despite this advantageous position, the number of dead American and allied soldiers during the years of occupation was enough to shock the American public, perhaps forever changing the perception of the military conflict. The consequences were predictable, with popular pressure forcing a withdrawal of troops from Iraq and a significant reduction of the contingent stationed in Afghanistan.

    After a 70-year history of warfare, the old strategy of bombing, invading, and occupying a conquered territory had outlived its usefulness.

    Time to change. New Goal: World Domination

    The pursuit of a new global strategy required changes. A numerically smaller force was now needed, which would could be deployed on short notice to any corner of the world. US military strategists began to develop plans for new operational training methods and procedures, based on rapid-reaction forces and the ability to reach any theater of war with ease. To this end, US special forces, drones used for reconnaissance and attack, and reliance on the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) and National Security Agency (NSA) ended up almost totally replacing the previous approach and tactics that had been focused on protecting ground troops.

    This organizational change, which allowed the regional command centers a high-degree of strategic and decision-making autonomy, increased the complexity of the American military machine on a devastating scale. The practical results of these transformations could be seen in the control centers’ reduced ability to respond to external threats as a single military power under a single flag.

    In less than 10 years the United States had gone from a largely ground force able to invade foreign countries with sizable numbers of troops – thanks to its uncontested mastery of the airspace – to an organized military force compartmentalized into small units, which has rarely been asked to intervene directly in a conflict. Thus there has been less emphasis on a search for means and technologies to protect soldiers on the battlefield.

    Instead, air power has continued to be the decisive weapon in the war scenarios for several years, especially in North Africa and the Middle East. In 2011 in Libya, one of its latest demonstrations of air superiority, the power of the USAF, combined with that of its allies, provided the necessary cover allowing ground forces (consisting of terrorists who later invaded Syria and the Sinai Peninsula) to conquer and occupy that territory.

    To an attentive observer, all these nations that have found themselves in the US military’s crosshairs in recent years share a common characteristic, namely a pronounced inability to defend their own airspace. Once the skies were conquered, which provided protection for the troops during ground operations, most of the work was already done.

    But this is a formula that has not always had a successful impact on the course of the fighting. Ukraine and Syria are proof, despite representing two very different scenarios.

    A new situation

    For entirely different reasons, the two scenarios have highlighted the shortcomings and the strategic and structural weaknesses of the unified military command. In the case of Syria, the air-defense capabilities of the forces loyal to Damascus, rated among the top ten in the world, forced analysts in Washington in 2013 to develop a strategy based on the need to destroy the air-defense systems with the use of numerous cruise missiles that were launched from their fleet in the Mediterranean. Unless the surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems are disabled, the USAF cannot operate with impunity above Syrian skies and risks heavy losses. Syrian anti-aircraft systems are still quite able to neutralize not only an air attack but also a cruise-missile barrage, making any US assault enormously expensive (each Tomahawk costs about a million dollars), counterproductive, and ineffective. This new situation prompted Obama to seek Moscow's help to avoid a conflict that would have caused more than one headache for the Pentagon.

    In the case of Ukraine, control of the airspace was uncontested as the Donbass does not possess an air force that can rival that of the Ukrainian military, and thus the military plan was more focused on effective coordination between ground troops, heavy vehicles, and reconnaissance. The goal was to make tactical advances and to conquer the territories in dispute. Yet despite advisors sent from Washington and the technology offered by the United States (the NSA and NRO), Kiev’s army suffered grim setbacks at the hands of irregular forces far more poorly armed in terms of quality and quantity.

    Soon, a series of new situations began to unfold for the United States. Its inability to control the airspace over Syria or gain ground in Ukraine was symptomatic of a deeper malaise affecting the capabilities of the US military and its allies to fight certain battles.

    Back to the old school

    In the minds of US generals and military advisers, these developments were an unprecedented wake-up call. After 70 years of wars and conflicts, the US found itself for the first time in situations where it could neither afford the luxury of intervening directly (Ukraine) nor be able to provide a concrete solution that would reverse the situation on the battlefield (Syria). This was a cause for concern, forcing American political leaders to rethink their entire approach to military confrontation and to formulate a new strategy to face these new challenges.

    In some public meetings conducted by General Robert Neller (Commandant of the Marine Corps) and General Joseph Dunford (Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff), both men have highlighted the most important challenge for the future of the United States military. They foresee a transformation, over just 15 years, into a military force capable of fighting not only enemies that are well equipped (as in Syria and Ukraine) but also on par with the US (Russia and China). It is a revolution, or more precisely, a return to the past.

    In defining these challenges, Dunford spoke of what is referred to in military jargon as the “4+1,” i.e., the nations that the US Strategic Command sees as posing major challenges over the next 10 years, in other words: Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran + Terrorism. In describing this approach, Dunford has outlined a future war scenario mainly involving short-, medium-, and long-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs, MRBMs, and ICBMs, respectively), anti-ballistic systems (ABMs), cyber attacks, and the ability to deny access or airspace (A2/AD).

    What will surprise the reader is the admission by Neller and Dunford that the United States has some operational issues that could easily be exploited by opponents. Rival countries (peer competitors) have made technological strides in the past decade allowing them to almost close the gap with the US military in vital sectors for future war scenarios in many fields, such as the following:

    • Fifth-generation aircraft (J-31 and PAK FA) with stealth capabilities.

    • Long-range ballistic missiles (R-36M) and short-/medium-range missiles (Iskander).

    • ICBMs with supersonic speed (unable to be intercepted by current and future ABMs).

    • The ability to produce cybernetic damage with real-world effects.

    • Increasingly advanced technology to deny airspace to an opponent either electronically (EW) or mechanically (S-300, S-400, S-500).

    In all these challenges we can see America’s advantages being diminished. Another worrying aspect, of which both commanders are aware, is the need to have an Internet/intranet connection in order to operate at full capacity. The interconnection between men and means for the United States is a force multiplier, just as is the need to project power on enemy shores through naval forces. Strategies to deny these advantages are essential components of Russia’s and China’s military doctrines.

    The new generation of anti-ship missiles (DF-26BrahMos II, Qader and P-900) offer a clear example of how Beijing and Moscow are reacting to the steady degradation of the frameworks for global peace. If the US Navy is denied a radius of several hundred kilometers, which is needed in order to control ships and aircraft carriers close to an enemy coast, this is a big problem for American military planners. The anti-ship missiles also offer an economic advantage: they cost little but can sink ships worth billions of dollars. They are thus ideal for challenging the US Navy, whose unparalleled power can be seen in its 10 aircraft carriers. Furthering this strategy, Russia and China are working on beyond-visual-range (BVR) missiles that, combined with stealth aircraft (J-20 and PAK FA), can deny the United States the essential ability to anticipate a lethal attack on its aircraft carriers that can be launched from a safe distance.

    The goal for Beijing, Moscow, or Tehran is always the same: to keep Washington from being able to approach their shores or operate in international waters, in order to prevent the huge American aircraft carriers from being used as a launch pad for military operations.

    In terms of strategic security, the protection of the skies is the first priority for any military planner. ABM systems, like Chinese or Russian S-300, S-400, and S-500s, are, as stated, designed with the goal of creating an impenetrable airspace for ICBMs and/or fourth- or fifth-generation stealth aircraft. Without air cover and naval platforms, the functional capabilities of any ground troops are drastically reduced. Add to this SRBMs such as Iskander missiles, which can wipe out whole platoons, and one can easily understand why Dunford is worried that he has already lost his technological and operational edge when faced with a competitor of similar stature.

    Certainly the evolution of the American military-industrial complex (MIC) has not facilitated the task of the strategists at the Pentagon. Programs such as the F-35 (fifth-generation stealth aircraft) that were supposed to compete with equivalent Sino-Russian projects have been beset by numerous problems and massive cost overruns, probably the result of a widespread system of corruption, leaving the United States at a disadvantage in future contests for air supremacy.

    Even the US nuclear arsenal (nuclear triad) could use some upgrades to keep it on par with Russia’s, and those modernizations are estimated to cost about a trillion dollars over 10 years, a figure the US Treasury does not currently possess (without printing extra money, but that's another story). Recently Moscow conducted a long list of tests of its ballistic missiles that are capable of achieving unprecedented speed (Mach 6-7), able to change direction after launch, and which possess a significantly increased operating range (17,000 kms), making all current and future anti-ballistic systems ineffective and useless.

    Closing the gap

    Moscow and Beijing have practical considerations (but which are, in a way, almost philosophical) based on the enormous difference in their military spending compared to Washington. This has forced them to aim for inexpensive systems that are nevertheless just as effective.

    A perfect example, already fully operational, is the development and use of Kalibr missiles – the Russian response to the US cruise missile. Similar to the American version, its main difference is that it can be fired from small ships. To understand Washington’s level of anxiety, one need only analyze its reaction to the Black Sea launch of the first Kalibr missiles in 2015 toward targets in Syria. The Pentagon declared its surprise at Russia’s “new” ability to launch such missiles at a distance of thousands of kilometers from such small ships (with consequently reduced costs). This inability to recognize an opponent’s capabilities is perhaps symptomatic of underlying problems.

    The Kalibr missiles allowed Moscow to gain a tactical advantage, which, according to US military advisers, changed the strategic balance in the Middle East. This was enough to dramatically reduce one of the US’s largest advantages: cruise missiles. Top US advisors panicked, realizing they needed to immediately offer an adequate response to this new situation. Moreover, the strategy of equipping small ships with Kalibr missiles has allowed Moscow to produce a large number of corvettes, vastly expanding the total power of the Russian fleet. Moscow currently has quite a number of these ships, all armed in this way.

    The United States prefers the opposite philosophical stance in terms of its projects. Long-term projects are being promoted that offer massive opportunities for price gouging and extra profits for contractors and brokers: stealth ships (USS Zumwalt), mega carriers (Gerald R. Ford class), and the F-35 are just a few examples. Without offering any immediate technological advances, especially in relation to the countermoves of the “4 + 1,” it seems that this is where the moderization efforts of the US armed forces are focused.

    Paradoxically, although the US cannot even deploy a few F-35s, nations such as North Korea and Iran already have strategies in place to use deterrence to nullify the current American operational supremacy. In this sense, despite sanctions and the international climate of hostility, Pyongyang has managed to produce a submarine equipped with nuclear SLBMs – a big step forward that greatly expands its ability to deter the United States and South Korea. In Iran, the mass production of domestically developed weapons (Bavar-373) similar to the S-300 system (and just as effective) have been designed to deny any operational capacity over the skies of the Islamic Republic and its allies (Hezbollah and Syria) in the immediate future.

    An impossible request

    Washington is asking its generals to be prepared for a large-scale conflict with opponents of a stature equal to its own, but the reality behind the scenes is troubling, and the desperate cries of Dunford and Neller, appropriately kept hidden from the media, offer proof of this. Just a simple comparison of the military doctrines of China, Russia, and the United States – in regard to their long-term trajectory – shows that Washington, although possessing a numerical advantage in terms of the forces and means at its disposal, lacks the necessary capability to properly unify the powerful components of the US military in order to dominate its rivals.

    This is probably why General Dunford said recently that subsequent strategic plans by US armed forces will not be made public. Evidently, hiding these endemic weaknesses is necessary to avoid jeopardizing a cornerstone of the strategy of US forces: the ability to project power and intimidate opponents without having to take real action.

    Conclusions and today's conflicts

    Because they have effectively taken advantage of all the above factors, Russia, Iran, and their allies have attained the necessary skills to prevent direct US intervention in various contexts, from Ukraine to Syria.

    In analyzing what has not worked in the Middle East or Eastern Europe, the US is blinded by the complexity of its military system and is focusing mostly on its inability to rapidly devise a workable strategy that is inexpensive in terms of human casualties. This is the main reason Washington has been forced to lean on outside actors to influence events on the ground (mercenary battalions in Ukraine and Salafis and Wahhabis in Syria). As we can see, these are all choices that do not pay off in the long run, instead allowing other rising powers to dominate the United States without necessarily resorting to a direct confrontation.

    The wars of the third millennium AD also heavily rely on psychological factors and deterrence, as well as the essential ability to influence an opponent with false information. Take the example of Syria and the Russian intervention. No one at the Pentagon or CIA was able to predict Russia’s air and naval deployment, which was accomplished in less than 48 hours. No one, least of all Dunford, was ready at the time with a well-defined plan to respond to this move. In addition to technical and organizational inefficiencies, there is a clearly inadequate ability to decipher an opponent’s moves such as one does in chess. The ability to catch an opponent off guard has already proved its effectiveness in the conflict in Ukraine, in which Crimea was reunified with Russia without a shot being fired and with full popular support.

    Dunford and Neller have grasped that any future battlefield will be a hostile environment in terms of air superiority, Internet connectivity, and the simultaneous management of resources across a broad geographical spectrum. It is a challenge with – by the general’s own admission – a far from obvious outcome. Washington's policy, which is dominated by lobbies and corruption, requires an unprecedented turnaround in its military apparatus. But this is what is needed in order to meet the future challenges of a multipolar world with different nations (allied together) with capabilities equal to that of the US military machine.

    The truth, which is difficult for US policymakers to accept, is that the current environment of the military-industrial complex (MIC) leaves little room to maneuver, given the gargantuan projects that are in place. The F-35 is unlikely to be put on hold while the project is completely revised and its actual ability to carry out the tasks required of a fifth-generation fighter reviewed. The same could be said about the development of expensive ships such as the USS Enterprise and USS Zumwalt, in which several hundred billion dollars have already been invested.

    Military spending is an essential gear in the machine of the US system of oligarchy, but the consequences are starting to drag down the future military capabilities of the United States. Its rivals are catching up, using systems that are more advanced, more economical, and more effective, while also easier to use or replicate. The military leaders at the Pentagon are starting to show telling signs of impatience, calling for a transformation that will be difficult to achieve, since it will require a sea change in the country's top-brass establishment. The ultimate consequences are evidence of a pattern that is slowly draining Washington’s wallet and greatly reducing the competitive advantage that Washington possesses.

  • General Market Commentary 10-2-2016 (Video)

    By EconMatters


    The week starts off both the month and the quarter for fund flows as money managers allocate capital to their best ideas for the 4th quarter of 2016. The ISM, European Bank News, and the Job`s Report set the tone for this week.

    © EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle   

  • ALERT: US Real Estate Crash Imminent as Matthew threatens Miami Luxury Market

    It isn’t often such a clear market signal is painted such as the impending real estate market collapse.  It doesn’t take sophistocated algorithms or an MBA from Harvard to add up the math and the data and see that we’re on the precipice of a historic real estate asset cliff; and that the market is waiting for an ‘event’ to tip it over.  That event, it can be Hurricane Matthew.  That means this can all unfold THIS WEEK.  For those of us who have been following this trend for a long time (like, more than 10 years) this isn’t news, it’s just the obvious result of bad planning and decades of building a foundation on the wrong things (this is an educational metaphor – Real Estate Investors built their knowledge on the wrong ideals, the false axioms, and thus – invested in the wrong markets, on markets build on soft, unstable foundations…).

    As we explain in Splitting Pennies – Understanding Forex; the entire world’s economy, both micro and macro, can be explained through the prism of monetary policy.  Or in other words, if you master FOREX, you can master any market, because all markets are denominated in Forex.  Or in yet other words, markets are only able to function as a derivative of money markets – which Forex is.  

    Bubbles have persisted for years, but this last bubble that caused the 2008 crisis was based on real estate.  For a long time, US real estate prices always went up; until they didn’t.  So what changed in 2008?  Enter Quantitative Easing, a program designed by the Fed to create ‘liquidity’ in the market that was otherwise illiquid.  Starting out buying ‘toxic’ assets no one wanted, now the Fed has a diversified portfolio of many assets, much of which is real estate.  This is not the only thing propping up the real estate market.  Also, the Fed has given banks and hedge funds HUGE access to cheap capital, or free capital, in large quantities.  Let’s take the world’s largest, as the best example; Blackstone, with $100 Billion + to invest in real estate:

    Blackstone, helmed by global head of real estate Jon Gray, is the largest real estate private equity firm in the world. Since raising their first opportunistic real estate fund in 1997, Blackstone has been a dominant player in the industry with their simplified opportunistic philosophy of “buy it, fix it, sell it”. Just this month, Blackstone real estate surpassed a staggering $100 billion in assets under management. As part of a push towards a longer hold, core plus strategy, they recently closed the largest ever PE real estate fund at $15.8 billion. Furthermore, Blackstone recently acquired Chicago’s iconic Willis Tower, which they plan to enhance through value add renovations and a repositioning of the tower’s retail space.

    Well, not all $100 Billion is invested in Real Estate, but remember, they are leveraged, so they don’t buy for cash, so it’s not known what they’re real ‘real’ estate portfolio is.  Between the Fed buying MBS (Mortage Backed Securities), Hedge Funds & Private Equity Funds like Blackstone, and your typical foreign buyers fleeing corruption or a crashing economy in their own market – real estate is highly inflated.  This is of course, exaggerated in niche areas; Los Angeles, San Francisco, Las Vegas, Boston, New York, Miami, Greenwich CT, and many, many others.  Just take a look at what you get in Ohio for $4M and what you get in San Francisco for $4M.  Hmm… Something doesn’t add up here.  People in CA shocked at non-CA market values.  Hmm… and there’s high state taxes in CA, and pollution, a water drought, and fallout from Fukushima irradiating the crops and population, explosion of cancers.  Where do I sign?  

    Years ago, analysts said that in 50 years Florida will be underwater.  Real Estate investors didn’t feel that their feet were wet, so they ignored this.  Well, these analysts were wrong – it’s happening much, much, much faster.  Miami-Dade County is going to be hit the hardest.  If you don’t know about this issue, read this article here “A Rising Tide” :

    “This whole beautiful landscape’s going to change,” he said. Miami Beach consists of a long, low barrier island accompanied by a scattering of manmade islets. It’s one of the lowest-lying municipalities in the country, and its residents are leading the way into the world’s wetter future. Along the island’s low western side bordering Biscayne Bay, people have come to dread full-moon high tides, when salt water seeps into storm-drain outlets and the porous limestone that provides the island’s foundation, forcing water up and out into the streets and sidewalks and threatening buildings and infrastructure. And Miami Beach is just one small part of a region that’s in big trouble. If sea levels rise as projected, no major U.S. metropolitan area stands to rack up bigger losses than Miami-Dade County. Almost 60 percent of the county is less than six feet above sea level. Even before swelling of the seas is factored in, Miami has the greatest total value of assets exposed to flooding of any city in the world: more than $400 billion. Once you account for future sea-level rise and continued economic growth, Miami’s exposed property will far outstrip that of any other urban area, reaching almost $3.5 trillion by the 2070s. The sea level around the South Florida coast has already risen nine inches over the past century. Among experts, the optimists expect it to edge up another three to seven inches in the next 15 years and nine inches to two feet in the next 45 years. More pessimistic (some say increasingly realistic) predictions say the rise will be much faster. Even the very gradual rise of recent decades will make extensive infrastructure reengineering necessary—Mowry’s job. However, according to a report published by the Florida Department of Transportation, it will become difficult, expensive, and maybe impossible for these efforts to keep up with the accelerated sea-level rise that is actually expected. 

    Miami is spending $500 Million building walls and drainage to address this problem.  Read the 2012 Presentation in PDF here.  But will it be enough?  And what about Hurricanes?  A Category 5 hurricane can have a storm surge of 20 – 30 feet, such as Camille in 1969.  Storm Surge is when the water rises, completely – that means the ocean will rise 24 feet (Read about it here).  Matthew, if it struck Florida, would really be Biblical.  Billions of Dollars in damage would occur, just from the storm.  And this information is not ‘priced in’ to this already ‘frothy’ market, just see spring articles about Miami’s real estate crash here, here, and here.

    This article being the most dramatic: “Luxury Urban Housing, Built on a Myth, Is About to Take a Big Hit”.

    The other info that you need to know, since the early 90’s, the US Government manipulates the weather.  If you’re not up to date on this topic, you can read about it here in this groundbreaking book Chemtrails, HAARP, and the Full Spectrum Dominance of Planet Earth.  Or for a simple primer on Geo-engineering, checkout No Natural Weather: Geoengineering 101.  Then, why would they allow a hurricane to smash into South Florida?  Who knows, but if you want to look at the strange correlation between military events and Hurricanes, take a deeper look at 911 and Hurrican Erin – This book Black 911 is a great start.

    Matthew is now heading toward Jamaica, at which point it may settle down; Jamaica has mountains which Hurricanes don’t like.  But Florida is being warned.  

    Traders, tomorrow’s trade is easy; put in your buy limits above the MAs on HD, LOW, and get ready to short homebuilders, and other South Florida real estate companies.  This week is going to be a wild ride for real estate, regardless if Matthew hits FL or not.

    The market now is quiet, sales are down 80% in some areas (i.e. Greenwich, CT “Billionaire Capital”), but the panic selling hasn’t started yet.  An event such as a Hurricane in FL, or a big Earthquake in CA, can be the tipping point that starts it.

    This will hit the rent market too – as values collapse, rents will too.  Not only that, but a bad economy will put pressure on renters and their ability to pay.  This recent bubble, in both housing values, rent prices, and other assets – is just that.  A bubble.  It will pop.  And as we saw in 2008, each time the bubble bursts, the drawdown is a little deeper.  But real estate in particular recovered with the help of the Fed and numerous Fed players, as this was a political victory as well as an economic one.  It was seen as helping Main St. as well as Wall St.

    There’s other investments, other ways to make money than real estate, such as Forex algorithms.  But it seems that as usual, investors will need to have a huge loss before learning this lesson.  

    Pain – is the only real teacher!

    To learn more about the financial markets, checkout Splitting Pennies – Understanding Forex – your pocket guide to make you a Forex genius!  Or visit Fortress Capital Forex, and broaden your horizons.

  • "I'm A Bernie Sanders Voter.. Here's Why I'll Vote Trump"

    Authored by Eric Zuesse,

    Sometimes, things in politics are the opposite of the way they seem. The Presidential contest between the ‘liberal’ Hillary Clinton’ and the ‘conservative’ Donald Trump is perhaps the most extreme example of this — for ten reasons that will be documented here.

    I have never voted Republican in my life, starting with my first vote in the 1960s. I’ve consistently supported Bernie Sanders for President (even before he entered the contest). The reason for that support is his record in public office, regarding especially these ten key issues, where Sanders’s actions in public office contrast sharply against Hillary Clinton’s actions in public office. (Her policy-words lie often; but her policy-actions never have lied — actions speak the truth.) Trump has no record at all in public office. Even if he’s as bad as he sometimes projects to be, he’s not as bad as Hillary’s policy-record already is. But his clear superiority over her isn’t merely his lack of any record in public office; because, as will be demonstrated here, his words on some of the crucial public-policy issues have been consistently far more progressive than her actions on those same issues have been (and sometimes more progressive than her words on these issues have been) — and, in Donald Trump’s case, words are all that we have to go by, because his record as a businessman displays nothing about his authentic views about public policy, but only about his self-interest. Both of these two candidates are liars, and any intelligent voter knows it by now.

    First, here, will be stated these ten key issues, on each of which issues Bernie and Hillary are opposites, and then Trump’s stated position regarding each of the ten will be presented.

    At the end will be presented the reason I won’t vote for Jill Stein.

    Here are the ten key issues:

    1:  Sanders favors “breaking up the big banks.” Hillary Clinton opposes that.

     

    2:  Sanders has fought consistently against Obama’s mega-‘trade’ deals. Hillary consistently favored them.

     

    3:  Sanders favors working with Russia against jihadists in Syria. Hillary opposes that.

     

    4:  Sanders says jihadists are America’s top foe. Hillary says both jihadists and Russia are equally anti-American, equally dangerous to America. Hillary is simply a neoconservative; Sanders isn’t. Her having voted to invade Iraq was no mistake on her part; it was consistent with her entire international outlook, all of which is neoconservative, like invading Libya, Syria, etcetera. Bernie’s vote against invading Iraq was likewise consistent with his international outlook.

     

    5:  Sanders has been consistently opposed to fossil fuels. Hillary has aggressively supported them.

     

    6:  Sanders says that the system is rigged. Hillary says that it’s not.

     

    7:  Sanders says the system is rigged specifically against the poor. Hillary says the problem that keeps people poor is instead individual bigots — against Blacks, Hispanics, women, gays, etc. Not the system itself. She is proud to represent the system. She’s not against it. She’s for it.

     

    8:  Sanders’s political career has been financed by small-dollar donations. Hillary’s has been financed by mega-donations.

     

    9:  Sanders favors every possible means of reducing the influence big-money donations to politicians has over politics. Hillary opposes that idea.

     
    10:  Sanders favors socialized health insurance, like exists in the European nations that spend per-capita half what America does but have higher life-expectancy than America does. Hillary opposes that — she favors the existing profit-based system of health-care, and opposes the European system where basic healthcare is a right, no privilege (that’s based only on ability-to-pay).
    *  *  *
    I support Sanders not because his rhetoric on these matters is correct in my view, but because his record on them is correct: he has voted in Congress consistently in the ways that his rhetoric has said he believes — and I agree with his record, and thus too with his rhetoric (since it’s the same as his rhetoric). Hillary has instead contradicted herself frequently — and even voted in Congress, and acted as the U.S. Secretary of State — in ways that directly contradict her mealy-mouthed progressive statements. Her record shows that she’s actually the anti-Bernie, the opposite of Bernie. Trump (as I shall document here) is definitely not that (despite his frequent appeals to conservatives for their votes). This article will document the reasons why any reasonable and well-informed progressive will vote for Donald Trump.
     
    *  *  *
    Here are the positions of Trump and of Clinton on these ten key issues:
     

    1:  Sanders favors “breaking up the big banks.” Hillary Clinton opposes that.

    The real meaning of “breaking up the big banks” is separating investment banks from commercial banks: it has nothing actually to do with a bank’s size. It has to do with a bank’s function. It’s structural, not an issue of mere size (which Bernie’s opponents pretend it to be). 
     
    As Morning Consult reported on 18 July 2016, Bernie Sanders required as a precondition in order for him to endorse Hillary Clinton for President, the inclusion in the Democratic Party platform of a recommendation that the FDR-era Glass-Steagall Act, which had separated investment banking (stock-brokerage) from commercial banking (checking and savings accounts), be restored. Bill Clinton had killed Glass-Steagall, and that’s one big reason why Wall Street heavily funds the Clintons. The elimination of Glass-Steagall returned the U.S. in 2000 to the structure that had produced the Great Depression, in which billionaires were gambling with the money of depositors — gambling with depositors’ checking accounts and savings accounts. That ending of Glass-Steagall set the groundwork for building the bubble which ended with the 2008 economic crash. Both Clintons have been against restoring Glass-Steagall, but Sanders forced this into the platform, even though a party’s platform is pure PR, no real policy-statement. This was purely Bernie’s statement, not at all Hillary’s. (In fact, at the very same time she did this merely nominal act, she selected as her VP pick Senator Tim Kaine, who is a longtime agent for Wall Street and international corporations, and who just before she selected him, was the subject of an article by Zach Carter at Huffington Post, on July 20th, headlined “Tim Kaine Calls To Deregulate Banks As He Campaigns To Be Clinton’s VP”. Kaine also had provided one of the 60 votes to pass Fast Track Trade Promotion Authority, the enabling act for ultimate passage of Obama’s TPP, which will give international corporations unprecedented power if passed. Fast Track needed 60 votes in order to pass, and that’s exactly what it got; each of those 60 votes, including Tim Kaine’s, was essential for it. Hillary supported Fast Track. Clearly, she also will deregulate further the financial firms; what her husband did in 1999 wasn’t bad enough to suit her. With this VP pick, she was stabbing Sanders in the back, right at the start of the Democratic National Convention.)
     
    When Bill Clinton ended Glass-Steagall, it was by his signing a piece of legislation titled the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, and all three of those names attached to it were Republicans — this was the fulfillment, the very culmination, of a longtime Republican Party effort to end Glass-Steagall. Bill Clinton was a right-wing Democrat (though not as far-right as Hillary) who, by moving the Democratic Party to the right, forced the Republican Party even farther to the right than it had been, in order for Republican candidates to be able to continue to attract conservative voters. Barack Obama has perfected this strategy (of moving America’s political center toward the right) even further. Hillary Clinton would carry it much farther still. The congressional vote on Gramm-Leach-Bliley occurred near the end of Bill Clinton’s Presidency, by which time, there was almost as high a percentage of congressional Democrats who voted to repeal that Democratic Party (FDR) milestone law as there was of Republicans who voted to repeal it, but only Republicans would attach their names to this far-right bill. Gramm-Leach-Bliley was a sell-out to Wall Street. Hillary Clinton always supported strongly that sell-out; Bernie forced her now to nominally oppose it.
     
    That same Morning Consult article also reported that, “Paul Manafort, campaign chairman of presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump, told reporters in Cleveland today that the Republican platform will include language calling for the reinstatement of the law that was repealed in 1999.” That was shocking news. 
     
    When Donald Trump forced into the Republican platform a restoration of the Democratic Glass-Steagall Act, this was his statement, not something that somebody else forced upon him. He knew that doing this would antagonize Wall Street, but he did it anyway. Trump actually wants to ‘break up the big banks’. He would allow the traditional Republican lower-class voter-base favorites of banning abortions, etc. (he needs those people’s votes in order to win), but he wouldn’t allow Gramm-Leach-Bliley to continue (he apparently doesn’t think he’ll need those people’s money in order to win).
     
    On 9 August 2016, the far-right American Enterprise Institute headlined “How Can Trump Support Deregulation and Glass-Steagall?” and opened by saying, “The Republican platform’s proposal to reinstate Glass-Steagall is hard to understand, even in the confused policy mishmash created by Donald Trump. The best interpretation is that it’s an awkward outreach to the disappointed ‘progressive’ supporters of Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. The worst is that it calls into question whether Donald Trump really supports financial deregulation. The key problem for those Republicans who are now warily supporting their presidential nominee is that it is not clear where he will lead the party in this election — and the country — if he wins.” That’s precisely true. Conservatives view this with alarm. By contrast, few progressives have yet been equally smart, to even recognize that it exists — the fact that Donald Trump is, perhaps, as much of a closeted progressive, as Hillary Clinton is a closeted fascist (servant of international corporations, their chosen government dictator).
     
    The AEI article continued: “But how can we believe any of this [Trump’s anti-regulatory statements]? More than anything else, the reinstatement of Glass-Steagall suggests that the government, and not private decision-making, should determine the structure of the economy. One can’t believe in the reinstatement of Glass-Steagall and still believe in the repeal or significant modification of Dodd-Frank. It’s like saying free markets work, but price controls can help.” 
     
    The answer to that is: Trump recognizes “that the government, and not private decision-making, should determine the structure of the economy,” and that this is one of the fundamental reasons government even exists — to establish “the rules of the road” for the economy.
     
    On 28 January 2016, Chris Arnade headlined in Britain’s Guardian, “I worked on Wall Street. I am skeptical Hillary Clinton will rein it in”, and he wrote: "Ask anyone who has spent the last two decades on Wall Street which politicians have worked for them the hardest and most will grudgingly admit it’s the Clintons.” Those millions of dollars didn’t come from Occupy Wall Street — they came from Wall Street.
     
    Any really well-informed progressive knows that Dodd-Frank was largely a sell-out to the mega-corporations, which competitively gain, from the enormously complex Dodd-Frank Act, a huge advantage against the smaller firms, because the more complex a regulatory law is, the more that the required paperwork to comply with it will cripple small firms and so provide added competitive advantage to large firms (for which such paperwork is inevitably a far smaller percentage of their total costs of doing business). Dodd-Frank is a Wall Street monstrosity, and AEI knows it, but they’re appalled that the Republican Presidential nominee stands against the mega-firms that pay AEI’s bills. This is not something that AEI is accustomed to, from a Republican Presidential nominee. After all: the Dodd-Frank Act was Barack Obama’s law he wanted to pass in order to placate Democrats who were demanding restoration of the Glass-Steagall Act. It’s not something that a progressive would support. It was the way to avoid doing what progressives wanted to be done — restoring Glass-Steagall. (Similarly: Obamacare was the way for Obama to avoid pushing a single-payer health insurance plan, such as by opening Medicare to everyone.) 
     
    The AEI commentary closed: “The Trump proposal to reinstate Glass-Steagall — only a technical idea of no particular consequence to most American voters — has major implications for the credibility of the candidate in whom so many Republicans have now placed their trust. Like the canary in the coal mine, it’s small but significant.” They know that though the public don’t pay attention to such things (the things that are important), the reinstatement of Glass-Steagall is an enormous threat to the ability of America’s billionaires to gamble with the money in the public’s checking accounts and savings accounts — their ability to take the gambling-profits and to leave the government holding the bag in the event that those aristocrats’ gambles don’t pay off (like the Wall Street bailouts in 2008). They favor ‘socialism for the rich, capitalism for the poor’. So does the Democratic Presidential nominee, Hillary Clinton; and, thus, AEI is part of the Republican Party elite’s move away from Trump, toward Hillary. They’re increasingly recognizing such “canaries in the coal mines,” from Trump. Progressive Democratic voters should recognize it too, before they help elect Wall Street’s favorite candidate by not voting for Trump.
     

    2:  Sanders has fought consistently against Obama’s mega-‘trade’ deals. Hillary consistently favored them.

    Hillary Clinton was instrumental in getting the “Fast Track Trade Promotion Authority” law approved by congressional Democrats, and that’s the enabling law which now makes likely the ability of Obama to get his TPP ‘trade’ treaty with Pacific countries passed into lawduring the upcoming “lame duck” session of Congress, November 9th through January 3rd. She was a part of it, and she has always acted behind the scenes to push for passage of such treaties, including her own husband’s NAFTA.
     
    Like Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump has passionately condemned those treaties, and is urging members of Congress to vote against TPP if and when Obama tries to get it passed into law right after the November 8th elections (which is when members of Congress are maximally willing to do what their funders want and their voters oppose).
     
    Hillary's 2003 Living History (p. 182) actually bragged about her husband’s having passed NAFTA, and she said: “Creating a free trade zone in North America — the largest free trade zone in the world — would expand U.S. exports, create jobs and ensure that our country was reaping the benefits, not the burdens, of globalization.” This was one of, supposedly, her proudest achievements, which were (p. 231) “Bill’s successes on the budget, the Brady bill and NAFTA.” But Hillary in her 2008 primary campaign against Obama was demanding that he apologise for his campaign flyer’s having said: “Only Barack Obama fought NAFTA and other bad trade deals.” That statement was just a fact. (Only after Obama started his second Presidential term in 2012 did he staff-up for, and start an operation to institute, mega-‘trade’ agreements that are much bigger, and much worse, even than NAFTA. For that purpose, he hired Michael Froman, who had been the Clinton-operative and longtime Obama friend who had personally introduced Obama in 2004 to the top people on Wall Street who had financed the Clintons’ political careers.) 
     
    On 20 March 2008, the day after Hillary finally released her schedule during her White House years, The Nation’s John Nichols blogged “Clinton Lie Kills Her Credibility on Trade Policy”, and he said: “Now that we know from the 11,000 pages of Clinton White House documents released this week that [the] former First Lady was an ardent advocate for NAFTA; … now that we know she was in the thick of the maneuvering to block the efforts of labor, farm, environmental and human rights groups to get a better agreement; … now that we know from official records of her time as First Lady that Clinton was the featured speaker at a closed-door session where 120 women opinion leaders were hectored to pressure their congressional representatives to approve NAFTA; now that we know from ABC News reporting on the session that ‘her remarks were totally pro-NAFTA’ and that ‘there was no equivocation for her support for NAFTA at the time’; … what should we make of Clinton’s campaign claim that she was never comfortable with the militant free-trade agenda that has cost the United States hundreds of thousands of union jobs?”
     
    The next day, Jennifer Parker at Jake Tapper’s “Political Punch” blog, headlined “From the Fact Check Desk: The Clinton Campaign Misrepresents Clinton NAFTA Meeting”, and she reported: “I have now talked to three former Clinton Administration officials whom I trust who tell me that then-First Lady Hillary Clinton opposed the idea of introducing NAFTA before health care, but expressed no reservations in public or private about the substance of NAFTA. Yet the Clinton campaign continues to propagate this myth that she fought NAFTA.” Hillary continued this lie even after it had been repeatedly and soundly exposed to be a lie. Her behavior in this regard was reminiscent of George W. Bush’s statements on WMD in Iraq, and on many other issues.
     
    Only a sucker would believe Hillary’s statements in which she says she has changed her mind and now opposes TPP. She knows that when she helped Obama to win Fast Track Trade Promotion Authority, she had the only impact on that matter which she will ever have, and that it’s because of that law, which she helped Obama to pass, that TPP might be approved in Congress even before the next President enters the White House.
     
     

    3:  Sanders favors working with Russia against jihadists in Syria. Hillary opposes that.

    Trump says: “The approach of fighting Assad and ISIS simultaneously was madness, and idiocy. They’re fighting each other and yet we’re fighting both of them. You know, we were fighting both of them. I think that our far bigger problem than Assad is ISIS, I’ve always felt that. Assad is, you know I’m not saying Assad is a good man, ’cause he’s not, but our far greater problem is not Assad, it’s ISIS. … I think, you can’t be fighting two people that are fighting each other, and fighting them together. You have to pick one or the other.” Assad is allied with Russia against the Sauds, so the U.S. (in accord with a policy that George Herbert Walker Bush initiated on 24 February 1990 and which has been carried out by all subsequent U.S. Presidents) is determined to overthrow Assad, but Trump is firmly opposed to that policy.
     
    Months before that, Trump had said: “I think Assad is a bad guy, a very bad guy, all right? Lots of people killed. I think we are backing people we have no idea who they are. The rebels, we call them the rebels, the patriotic rebels. We have no idea. A lot of people think, Hugh, that they are ISIS. We have to do one thing at a time. We can't be fighting ISIS and fighting Assad. Assad is fighting ISIS. He is fighting ISIS. Russia is fighting now ISIS. And Iran is fighting ISIS. We have to do one thing at a time. We can't go — and I watched Lindsey Graham, he said, I have been here for 10 years fighting. Well, he will be there with that thinking for another 50 years. He won't be able to solve the problem. We have to get rid of ISIS first. After we get rid of ISIS, we'll start thinking about it. But we can't be fighting Assad. And when you're fighting Assad, you are fighting Russia, you're fighting — you're fighting a lot of different groups. But we can't be fighting everybody at one time.”
     
    In that same debate (15 December 2015) he also said: “In my opinion, we've spent $4 trillion trying to topple various people that frankly, if they were there and if we could've spent that $4 trillion in the United States to fix our roads, our bridges, and all of the other problems; our airports and all of the other problems we've had, we would've been a lot better off. I can tell you that right now. We have done a tremendous disservice, not only to Middle East, we've done a tremendous disservice to humanity. The people that have been killed, the people that have wiped away, and for what? It's not like we had victory.
    It's a mess. The Middle East is totally destabilized. A total and complete mess. I wish we had the $4 trillion or $5 trillion. I wish it were spent right here in the United States, on our schools, hospitals, roads, airports, and everything else that are all falling apart.”
     
    His thinking about this matter is in the same direction as Bernie Sanders’s but far more fully thought-out, with the connections being made in a prominent way even to domestic spending. If there is anything that is clearly and carefully thought-out in Trump’s policy-positions — and war-peace and the avoidance of precipitating a nuclear war is the very biggest single issue of all — then this issue is it.
     
    Here was the debate-segment about this issue between Bernie and Hillary:
     
    Hillary Clinton, in a debate with Bernie on 19 December 2015, argued for her proposal that the U.S. impose in Syria a “no-fly zone” where Russians were dropping bombs on the imported jihadists who have been trying to overthrow and replace Assad: "I am advocating the no-fly zone both because I think it would help us on the ground to protect Syrians; I'm also advocating it because I think it gives us some leverage in our conversations with Russia.” She said there that allowing the jihadists to overthrow Assad “would help us on the ground to protect Syrians,” somehow; and, also, that, somehow, shooting down Russia’s planes in Syria (the “no-fly zone”) "gives us some leverage in our conversations with Russia.”
     
    Bernie Sanders’s response to that was: "I worry too much that Secretary Clinton is too much into regime change and a little bit too aggressive without knowing what the unintended consequences might be. Yes, we could get rid of Saddam Hussein, but that destabilized the entire region. Yes, we could get rid of Gadhafi, a terrible dictator, but that created a vacuum for ISIS. Yes, we could get rid of Assad tomorrow, but that would create another political vacuum that would benefit ISIS. So I think, yeah, regime change is easy, getting rid of dictators is easy. But before you do that, you've got to think about what happens the day after. And in my view, what we need to do is put together broad coalitions to understand that we're not going to have a political vacuum filled by terrorists, that, in fact, we are going to move steadily — and maybe slowly — toward democratic societies, in terms of Assad, a terrible dictator. But I think in Syria the primary focus now must be on destroying ISIS and working over the years to get rid of Assad. That's the secondary issue.”
     

    4:  Sanders says jihadists are America’s top foe. Hillary says both jihadists and Russia are equally anti-American, equally dangerous to America. Hillary is simply a neoconservative; Sanders isn’t. Her having voted to invade Iraq was no mistake on her part; it was consistent with her entire international outlook, all of which is neoconservative, like invading Libya, Syria, etcetera. Bernie’s vote against invading Iraq was likewise consistent with his international outlook.

    Trump has repeatedly said that jihadists are America’s #1 foe. He constantly says that fundamentalist Muslims — jihadists, such as have been sent out and paid by the Sauds to countries around the world to punish and conquer people who don’t share the Sauds’ particular fundamentalist faith — are the biggest danger to American national security. On this basis, Trump says that America’s invasion of Iraq was wrong:
     
     
     
    The Intercept headlined on 29 February 2016, “Neoconservatives Declare War on Trump”. On 21 March 2016, the Washington Post bannered, “Trump Questions Need for NATO, Outlines Noninterventionist Foreign Policy”. On 23 March 2016, William Greider headlined inThe Nation, “Donald Trump Could Be the Military-Industrial Complex’s Worst Nightmare”.
     
    This is called by some people ‘non-interventionist’, but actually it’s more correctly called opposition to the continuing take-over of the U.S. government by the military-industrial complex. Trump says: “Right now we’re protecting, we’re basically protecting Japan, and we are, every time North Korea raises its head, you know, we get calls from Japan and we get calls from everybody else, and ‘Do something.’ And there’ll be a point at which we’re just not going to be able to do it anymore. Now, does that [intervention] mean nuclear? It could mean nuclear. It’s a very scary nuclear world. Biggest problem, to me, in the world, is nuclear, and proliferation.” On the same basis, he especially wants to ratchet-down, not up (like Clinton does), the U.S. arms-race with Russia, which restoration of the ‘Cold War’ is beneficial to arms-makers and their investors, but not to anyone else. And he’s especially against continuing our existing relationship with the Sauds, the royal family who own Saudi Arabia. He says: “We’re not being reimbursed for the kind of tremendous service that we’re performing by protecting various countries. Now Saudi Arabia’s one of them. I think if Saudi Arabia was without the cloak of American protection, … I don’t think it would be around. It would be, whether it was internal or external, it wouldn’t be around for very long. And they’re a money machine, they’re a monetary machine, and yet they don’t reimburse us the way we should be reimbursed. So that’s a real problem.” The Saud family, the royal owners of their nation, compete against the government of Russia as the leading suppliers of oil to the world. Russia’s main export market was Europe, and the Sauds have wanted to replace Russia’s oil and gas dominance there. The Saud family are also the world’s leading buyer of weaponry. U.S. weapons-makers profit enormously from continuing this relationship — the Sauds buy America’s weapons, and the U.S. joins the Sauds’ wars, which are basically against the allies of Iran and of Russia, the Sauds’ chief competitors. The Sauds helped us end the Soviet Union, by sending Osama bin Laden into Afghanistan etc. and creating Islamic terrorism, both there and subsequently inside Russia, in Chechnia. After King Fahd had a stroke in 1995, Osama bin Laden’s advice was even sought by the Saud Princes to determine which of them should become the next king, and he supplied that advice to them in a letter, which was delivered by a private courier. Since the U.S.-Saudi creation of Islamic terrorism helped end the Soviet Union by 1991, the Sauds have been just a huge drain and embarrassment to America. Only the armaments firms benefit from continuing the campaign, now directed against Russia and its allies (such as were Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi, Bashar al-Assad, and Viktor Yanukovych), instead of against the Soviet Union and its Warsaw Pact (which are gone).
     
     
    Trump is much more explicit about these things than Sanders has been, and Trump has been even so bold as to assert: “I have two problems with NATO. No. 1, it’s obsolete. When NATO was formed many decades ago we were a different country. There was a different threat. Soviet Union was, the Soviet Union, not Russia, which was much bigger than Russia, as you know. And, it was certainly much more powerful than even today’s Russia, although again you go back into the weaponry. But, but – I said, I think NATO is obsolete, and I think that – because I don’t think – right now we don’t have somebody looking at terror, and we should be looking at terror. And you may want to add and subtract from NATO in terms of countries. But we have to be looking at terror, because terror today is the big threat.”Though there was his usual incoherence — NATO is “obsolete” but “you may want to add and subtract from NATO in terms of countries” (instead of to end it) — his statement isn’t nearly as incoherent as, for example, Hillary’s proposing to bring peace to Syria by going to war there against Russia. And he clarified his view further when he went on to say of NATO, that not only are its member-countries wrong for today’s challenges, but that “it was set up to talk about the Soviet Union,” and the big problem today is terrorism, and “I think, probably a new institution maybe would be better for that than using NATO which was not meant for that.” So: he actually knows that it’s got to be ended. A military alliance that’s “obsolete” is dangerous. Perhaps no U.S. Presidential candidate has spoken in such depth about foreign affairs. In this matter, he has delved far beyond the fashionable political platitutudes, to the basic realities, which no politician wants to talk about. Doing this requires guts. He’s correct not only regarding TPP etc., but regarding fundamental military strategy.
     
    On 18 May 2016, the Republican Robert Kagan, scion of (along with the Kristols) the most famous neoconservative family, and also the husband of Victoria Nuland (Hillary’s friend who ran Obama’s coup in Ukraine and installed racist fascists or nazis into control there), headlined in the Washington Post, “This Is How Fascism Comes to America”, and he opened, with his usual sanctimonious pomposity, “The Republican Party’s attempt to treat Donald Trump as a normal political candidate would be laughable were it not so perilous to the republic.”
     
    Then, the May/June 2016 issue of Politico magazine headlined “The Kremlin’s Candidate”, and Michael Crowley, formerly of The New Republic (the top Democratic Party neoconservative magazine), portrayed Trump in the way that Joseph R. McCarthy had been famous in the old days for portraying people such as Robert La Follette Jr.: as being a traitor. The far-right ‘media-watchdog’ organization, Accuracy In Media (AIM), headlined on 20 April 2016, 25 years after the end of the Soviet Union, “Trump Hires ‘Fixer’ With Soviet Connections”. Hillary Clinton’s shills are all over the newsmedia proclaiming Trump to be Putin’s fool, or Putin’s secret agent, or even to be both at once (which simply exposes how little respect they have for the people who believe their lies).
     
    Trump’s basic message is that the actual Cold War against the Soviet Union and its communism ended in 1991 when the U.S.S.R. and its Warsaw Pact ended, and that until Islamic terrorism arose after that, America really had no enemy after the end of communism — that Islamic jihadists are America’s real enemy, and Mitt Romney was profoundly wrong to allege that "Russia, this is, without question, our number one geopolitical foe.” Mitt supported the invasion of Iraq, just as did Hillary. Hillary was also the one member of the Obama Administration who most effectively argued for and persuaded President Obama to invade Libya. (Both Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi were friendly toward Russia, which neoconservatives especially and viscerally hate. Thus, there was Hillary’s famous “We came, we saw, he died — ha, ha!!”) Trump says something that Sanders himself has merely hinted at: NATO’s emphasis against Russia — the very basis of NATO — is, after 1991, outdated, and needs to be replaced by an entirely new U.S. defense-strategy, one directed instead against jihadists, no longer against Russia, which isn’t even communist anymore, and doesn’t even have the Soviet Union’s Warsaw Pact military alliance anymore. He’s looking long-term, and saying that national security against jihadists is a real concern, but that the war against Russia needs to stop and has no reason to continue, and that, to the contrary, the U.S. and Russia have shared interests in eliminating jihadists and jihadism. He says we’ll need to work together in order to end Islamic terrorism, which will mean a profound change in today’s Islamic world — a change that will benefit Moslems even more than anyone else, but that will also benefit us enormously. The idea of fighting both jihadists and Russians makes no sense at all to him: “You can’t be fighting two people. … You have to pick one or the other.” That’s a stronger statement than Sanders’s (“I think in Syria the primary focus now must be on destroying ISIS and working over the years to get rid of Assad. That's the secondary issue.”), but it’s in exactly the same direction.
     
    Already, the Obama Administration and NATO have pushed the anti-Russian agenda, and are expanding NATO, to such an extent that “The US leadership has done everything it could to push the situation to the brink of disaster.” Beyond that brink is nuclear war. A potential ally in the global war against jihadists is thus instead “without question, our number one geopolitical foe,” and declared by Obama to be the world’s most “aggressive” nation. That’s being said of a nation which wants to be America’s strongest ally, in America’s — and Russia’s — real war: against jihadism.
     
    In addition, the U.S. military are now starting to push for the necessity of going to war as soon as possible against China, so as not to permit the Chinese to arm themselves enough to be able to survive and remain an independent power. Trump has said that as President he will respect China’s independence, though he will negotiate with them a new agreement regarding trade between the two countries. Neoconservatives, by contrast, are only slightly less hostile toward China than they are toward Russia.
     

    5:  Sanders has been consistently opposed to fossil fuels. Hillary has aggressively supported them.

    Trump, like all Republican Presidential contenders (except for Ted Cruz), is no longer outright, and with certainty, denying that global warming is a real problem. On 11 February 2016, MSNBC headlined about this, “How Trump and company warmed to climate change”. However, no Republican Presidential candidate can afford to speak about the necessity to end reliance on fossil fuels, which constitute that Party’s chief and most reliable financial support. A Democrat, such as Hillary Clinton, can afford to speak about it, even if, like Clinton, the given candidate is actually also in the bag for fossil fuel companies. The Trump-Clinton rhetorical difference on global warming can’t be evaluated in a vacuum that’s devoid of these funding-realities. During all of Hillary’s time in public office, she has — by heractions though not always by her words — been a reliable supporter of fossil fuels, and fossil-fuels companies have responded with their money. Trump has no policy-record at all, but only rhetoric (pro-fossil-fuels, of course), and even his rhetoric hasn’t been consistently Republican on this quintessentially Republican issue. The biggest organizer of fossil-fuels political donations, the Koch brothers, are directing all of the Presidential-campaign cash to the Clinton campaign, none to Trump.
     
    On 17 July 2015, Paul Blumenthal and Kate Sheppard at Huffington Post bannered, “Hillary Clinton's Biggest Campaign Bundlers Are Fossil Fuel Lobbyists”  and the sub-head was "Clinton's top campaign financiers are linked to Big Oil, natural gas and the Keystone pipeline.”
     
    Her record does show that she represents those lobbyists, not the public. As I had reported previously, the Hillary Clinton State Department’s two environmental impact statements on the proposed Keystone XL Pipeline were triple-hoaxes that totally and scandalously ignored the proposed pipeline’s impact on climate-change but that did discuss the impact of climate-change on the proposed pipeline (as if anybody even cared about that); neither of the two studies had even one climatologist on the team that prepared the report; and the State Department didn’t do either of the reports themselves, but instead hired two oil-industry contractors that were proposed to the State Department by TransCanada Corporation, which is the company that was proposing to build and own the pipeline. So: those ‘studies' were rigged to enable the President to approve the Pipeline — which he ultimately decided not  to do.
     
    Furthermore, on 2 May 2013, Steve Horn headlined, "Digging Into TransCanada's Lobbying History,” and he found that, indeed, Hillary Clinton was surrounded by TransCanada lobbyists while the reports were being prepared by TransCanada’s chosen oil-industry contractors.
     
    Hillary Clinton is also a big champion of fracking. In September 2014, Mariah Blake bannered "How Hillary Clinton's State Department Sold Fracking to the World,” and reported that, "As part of its expanded energy mandate, the State Department hosted conferences on fracking from Thailand to Botswana. It sent US experts to work alongside foreign officials as they developed shale gas programs.” The energy-companies didn’t pay for those sales-calls by the U.S. Secretary of State; taxpayers did.
     
    Though Clinton verbally endorses the view that global warming is the world’s biggest problem, she doesn’t care about it in her actual actions as a public official. It’s mere rhetoric to her. Trump seems more honest, by saying: “When people talk global warming, I say the global warming that we have to be careful of is the nuclear global warming [blowing up the world]. Single biggest problem that the world has. Power of weaponry today is beyond anything ever thought of, or even, you know, it’s unthinkable, the power. You look at Hiroshima and you can multiply that times many, many times, is what you have today. And to me, it’s the single biggest, it’s the single biggest problem.” Furthermore, that statement was his response to an interviewer’s question, “Would you be willing to have the U.S. be the first to use nuclear weapons in a confrontation with adversaries?” Trump’s response indicated that the nuclear-war issue brought to his mind the issue of global warming: it showed that the mental association in his mind is that these two issues are the two most important issues that a U.S. President must address. He answered the question about nuclear war, by asserting that nuclear war is an even bigger concern for him than is global warming. That’s the correct priority, but it also shows that Trump is no conservative when the issue is global warming. No conservative thinks “global warming” when being asked about nuclear war.
     
    In order for Trump to hold his conservative base, he must include among his nominal ‘economic advisors’ some rabid anti-environmentalists. One of them is the libertarian Stephen Moore, chief economist for the Heritage Foundation, and founder of the Club for Growth. On 10 August 2016, Morning Consult bannered, “Trump Adviser Not Sweating Consequences of Promised Coal Boom”, and Moore criticized Trump for not being sufficiently pro-fracking. Moore even condemned environmentalists by saying “Fracking reduces global warming, you morons!” Of course, that statement of his is false. He then lambasted Barack Obama: “I think he believes totally in this lunatic idea that somehow everything’s going to be underwater in 20 years. … I think Obama is the most fanatical politician I’ve ever met on global warming.” The kicker in the article was this: “Hillary Clinton, however, appears to be ‘less extreme’ than Obama in opposing fossil fuels, Moore said.” Moore, a ‘former’ lobbyist himself, knows that she’s in the fossil-fuels industries’ pockets. Trump, on the other hand, is just a question-mark. Clearly, Trump is seen as the enemy, by the biggest anti-environmentalist political spenders of all: the strongly pro-Hillary Koch brothers.
     
    Furthermore, though the issue of global warming wasn’t raised by the interviewer or anyone else in the September 26th U.S. Presidential nominees’ debate between Hillary and Donald; Trump, and he alone, chose to bring it up during the discussion of nuclear war, when Hillary said there that, “his cavalier attitude about nuclear weapons is so deeply troubling. That is the number-one threat we face in the world.” He replied: “I agree with her on one thing. The single greatest problem the world has is nuclear armament, nuclear weapons, not global warming, like you think and your — your president thinks. Nuclear is the single greatest threat.” Yet again, he was showing the link that exists in his mind between these two premier issues; he was showing an implicit acknowledgement that though nuclear war is the top threat, global warming — if it is occurring — would be #2. If he becomes President, then not only the scientific consensus that it’s happening and is human-caused would be constantly pressing in upon him to acknowledge this reality publicly, but his ‘yielding to it’ and ‘changing his mind’ (if that’s really what it would be) about it, will be far more effective at reducing the shockingly high percentage of the American public who deny this terrible reality, than would a President Clinton’s acknowledgement that it’s real. It could cause the entire Koch-Exxon-etc. campaign of lies about it to collapse (much as happened with regard to the lies that the tobacco industry so successfully had peddled for so long about smoking). The U.S. would become far more cooperative with the international movement against fossil fuels than this country ever has been.
     
    The fossil-fuels industries are smart to be pouring funds into ads against Trump. They’ve been doing that for a long time.
     

    6:  Sanders says that the system is rigged. Hillary says that it’s not.

     

    7:  Sanders says the system is rigged specifically against the poor. Hillary says the problem that keeps people poor is instead individual bigots — against Blacks, Hispanics, women, gays, etc. Not the system itself. She is proud to represent the system. She’s not against it. She’s for it.

     
    On 18 March 2016, Jason Linkins at Huffington Post bannered “How To Explain Hillary Clinton’s Fundraiser With Failed Theranos CEO Elizabeth Holmes: Scenes from the wreckage of the Democratic party”, and he reported that, “‘At some point,’ [Thomas] Frank tells the Huffington Post, ‘[the Democrats] decided that they weren’t all that interested in the concerns of working people anymore.’ Rather, Frank says, they became fixated on ‘the concerns of the professional class, people with advanced degrees, people at the very top of our economic society.’” Those are the voters whom Hillary Clinton’s policies aim to please. Trump, like Bernie, is pitching to working people. By making economic regulations so complex that only large corporations can afford the costs of compliance with them, more lawyers are needed, and more accountants are needed. By reducing and blocking taxpayer-funded healthcare, more doctors and more bill-collection agencies and more lobbyists are hired at higher salaries, in order to produce any given quality-level of healthcare. 

     

    8:  Sanders’s political career has been financed by small-dollar donations. Hillary’s has been financed by mega-donations.

    Trump’s stated positions are basically like Sanders’s: Trump has stated:
     
     
     
    As regards proposed solutions, Trump’s focus is different from Sanders’s, which proposes both limits on donations, and also total transparency of mega-donations so that the public will accurately know who actually was behind each particular mega-donation. Trump recognizes that the Republicans on the Supreme Court have eliminated the former (size-limits), and that they have also opened up a huge door to increased non-transparency, regarding whom the actual mega-donors to a candidate are. Trump has said:
     
    Hillary Clinton has opposed Sanders’s proposal regarding limiting the size of campaign-contributions, and she has been vague on everything else except “Overturn Citizens United”, which is one of the Republican judges’ decisions (starting with Buckley v. Valeo in 1976) that unleashed mega-donations by declaring that in political campaigns, money is first-amendment-protected “speech,” and that therefore the more money that’s spent advertising any candidate, the more “free speech” there is, and therefore, the better it is. In other words: Clinton has no actual position on money-in-politics (the idea that ‘money is speech’), she has only empty rhetoric, though she’s long been in public office collecting mega-donations. Clinton made it all the way through the primaries against Sanders and never even asserted (as if one can even trust what she says) a coherent position on the matter, other than the bumper-sticker “Overturn Citizens United,” to please liberal fools to vote for her. Meanwhile, the lawyer Glenn Greenwald has pointed out that Hillary was lying, even on the little she says about Citizens United — the one money-in-politics decision she condemns. Greenwald wrote: “The Clinton argument actually goes well beyond the Court’s conservatives: In Citizens United, the right-wing justices merely denied the corrupting effect of independent expenditures (i.e., ones not coordinated with the campaign). But Clinton supporters in 2016 are denying the corrupting effect of direct campaign donations by large banks and corporations and, even worse, huge speaking fees paid to an individual politician shortly before and after that person holds massive political power.” Donald Trump has spoken clearly against all of that — he opposes, in principle, the type of opacity in donations, which the Democratic Party under Clinton encourages; and he also opposes, in principle, the opacity (such as Clinton’s being allowed to hide from the public her 91 paid secret speeches to mega-corporations and to their lobbying organizations). Trump, like Bernie, says the system itself is corrupt and corruptiing. The corruptors don’t like him much more than they liked Bernie. 
     
    The Washington Post headlined on 1 March 2016, “GOP Super PAC’s Ad Portrays Donald Trump as a Predatory Huckster”. The next day, Politico reported:
     
    The effort [by Republican mega-donors against Trump] is centered on the recently formed Our Principles PAC, the latest big-money group airing anti-Trump ads, which is run by GOP strategist Katie Packer, deputy campaign manager for Mitt Romney in 2012. The group, initially funded by $3 million from Marlene Ricketts, wife of billionaire T.D. Ameritrade founder Joe Ricketts, wants to saturate the expensive Florida airwaves ahead of the state’s March 15 primary with hopes of denying Trump a victory that could crush the hopes of home state Sen. Marco Rubio. A conference call on Tuesday to solicit donors for the group included Paul Singer, billionaire founder of hedge fund Elliott Management; Hewlett Packard President and CEO Meg Whitman; and Chicago Cubs co-owner Todd Ricketts, one of Joe and Marlene Ricketts’ three sons. Wealthy Illinois businessman Richard Uihlein is also expected to help fund the effort. Jim Francis, a big GOP donor and bundler from Texas, was also on the phone call on Tuesday 
     
     
    The Washington Post reported that “Money Raised as of June 30” of 2016, produced the following ratios, advantaging Clinton over Trump:
    Ratio of Hillary Clinton Campaign $ divided by Donald Trump campaign $ = 3.21
    Ratio of Clinton Super PACs $ divided by Trump Super PACs $ = 12.71
    18% of Clinton-campaign money came from donations of $200 or less. 27% of Trump-campaign money did. But that 27/18 ratio, of Trump/Clinton small donations, under-represents the true extent to which Trump was being backed by small donations, because Super PACS are almost entirely big-money donations, and an additional $106.8 million of Super PAC money helped Clinton’s campaign, whereas an additional mere $8.4 million of Super PAC money helped Trump’s campaign. Clearly: Clinton attracts the big money; Trump repels it. (He even condemns it.)
     
    With Trump, there is at least the possibility of a President who opposes the existing corrupt-and-corrupting system. With Clinton, there is a long and continuing, thoroughly convincing, record of her participating in, and sustaining, corruption in public office. Her top donors are employed by the companies that benefit the most from complexification of our laws, eliminating simplification, adding counter-productive bureacratization, which crushes everyone but the top 1%.
     

    9:  Sanders favors every possible means of reducing the influence big-money donations to politicians has over politics. Hillary opposes that idea.

    Trump during the Republican primaries was so averse to selling the Presidency to his fellow-billionaires, that he ran his campaign, against his competitors, on a virtual shoestring. After the primaries, he needs lots more money to campaign, especially against Hillary’s campaign that’s funded more heavily than any political campaign in history, from almost every special-interest group (and see here the list of closed-to-the-public speeches she’s given to the various lobbying organizations). She’s offering the U.S. government for sale. Trump is thus-far getting very few billionaires to pony up for his campaign. That’s extraordinary: normally, Republican candidates get even more from mega-donations than Democratic candidates do. However, Trump’s being starved by his fellow-billionaires means that he needs to rely even more heavily upon the Republican Party’s grassroots voting base: especially fundamentalist Christians, gun-rights fanatics, and anti-immigrant voters. The more that he can rely upon Bernie’s voters to win, the less he’ll need to rely upon those traditional Republican groups. If Bernie’s voters show up at the polls for him, this will greatly encourage a future President Trump to surprise the nation with how progressive he actually is. But he can’t afford, right now, to make any overt policy-pitches to Bernie’s voters, because that could scare away lots of the Republican voting-base he’ll definitely need in order to win.
     
    Also, Trump, unlike Sanders, is running in the traditional big-money Party, the Republican Party. Though Sanders was able to be viable while categorically refusing any assistance from Super PACs, Trump wasn’t, and isn’t. Trump, if he wins, will pull the Republican Party toward the “peace and justice” left; congressional Democrats will then need to move along with them in that same direction, in order to be able to retain their existing base. By contrast, a Clinton victory would move the Democratic Party to the right, and then congressional Republicans will need to move even farther to the right, in order to retain their existing voting-base. To move America’s center in the direction of progressivism, Trump is the clear choice.
     
    Hillary Clinton is the Democrats’ deceiver-in-chief; she is actually the Democratic Party’s Richard Nixon. By contrast, the “huckster” Trump is, if anything, too honest for his own good. Maybe he thinks that he’s a good-enough sheer salesman to be able to do that and still win, but he’ll need a lot more support from Bernie-voters in order to make it happen. 
     

    10:  Sanders favors socialized health insurance, like exists in the European nations that spend per-capita half what America does but have higher life-expectancy than America does. Hillary opposes that — she favors the existing profit-based system of health-care, and opposes the European system where basic healthcare is a right, no privilege (that’s based only on ability-to-pay).

    Trump says he favors taxpayer-paid healthcare for Americans who cannot afford to pay for the basic healthcare they need:
     
    “Donald Trump: By the way. Everybody's got to be covered. This is an un-Republican thing for me to say because a lot of times they say, "No, no, the lower 25 percent that can't afford private." But — Scott Pelley: Universal health care? Donald Trump: I am going to take care of everybody. I don't care if it costs me votes or not. Everybody's going to be taken care of much better than they're taken care of now. Scott Pelley: The uninsured person is going to be taken care of how? Donald Trump: They're going to be taken care of. I would make a deal with existing hospitals to take care of people. And, you know what, if this is probably — Scott Pelley: Make a deal? Who pays for it? Donald Trump: — The government's gonna pay for it. But we’re going to save so much money on the other side.”
     
    Here’s what that “so much money on the other side” might refer to:
    The latest OECD data on healthcare costs show that the U.S. spends by far the world’s highest percentage of GDP on healthcare, 16.9 percent; and also show that the average U.S. life expectancy is 78.7 years; by contrast, Canada spends 10.2 percent, and their life expectancy is 81.0 years. The OECD average expenditure is 9.3 percent , and life expectancy is 80.1 years. So: the U.S. spends almost twice as high a percentage of GDP as every other OECD nation, and gets markedly inferior results. This makes the U.S. far less economically competitive than it otherwise would be; but, the healthcare industries finance conservative politicians such as Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and all Republicans; so, those politicians don’t like single-payer — it would take much of the excess profits out of exploiting the sick, and those excess profits help to fund their campaigns.
    The American people’s financial losses produce exceptional financial gains for the investors in healthcare-related stocks, and also inflate the pay for executives in those firms. This helps to fund lots of what conservatives such as Antonin Scalia lovingly call “free speech” — campaign commercials.
     
    Here are the latest available data, and they show that, still, the U.S. is somewhat worse than average, for quality of care, and astronomically higher than any nation on both per-capita healthcare costs, and the percentage of GDP that goes to healthcare costs. For examples: across 45 countries tabulated by the OECD, the U.S. healthcare-expenditure per capita was $8,713 and 16.4% of GDP, whereas the average OECD country paid $3,453 and 8.9% of GDP. France paid $4,124 and 10.9% of GDP, and Japan paid $3,713 and 10.2% of GDP. The U.S. also was tied with Brazil, Chile, and South Africa, for having the highest percentage of healthcare-costs that’s paid privately rather than by the government.
     
    In any case, with our existing healthcare-for-profit, instead of healthcare-as-a-right, system, the U.S. ends up paying lots more than our competing nations, yet getting inferior results. (Apparently, postponing care until one is being rushed into an emergency-room is both atrociously poor care, and extremely expensive care. But it’s the most profitable for the healthcare-industries.) 
     
    Trump might have been referring to data such as those. If so, then he was correct about “we’re going to save so much money on the other side.” Hillary’s statements against the European-Canadian-Japanese system — basic healthcare as a right, instead of as a privilege — are false, and she knows it, she simply lies (for money).
     
    Hillary condemns Bernie Sanders’ support of taxpayer-funded health isurance for all (or ‘Medicare for all’ or “single-payer” health insurance). She says, "People who have health emergencies can't wait for us to have a theoretical debate about some better idea that will never, ever come to pass.” (There is no ‘theoretical debate’: many of those other countries do retain a role for private insurance, but not as big a role as ours, and not the same role.) That CBS News story, 29 January 2016, by a reporter who clearly favored Hillary, was headlined “Hillary Clinton: Single-payer health care will ‘never, ever’ happen”, and that reporter summarized by saying, “The debate over health care underscores the difference between Clinton's campaign pitch as a pragmatic, effecitve leader and Sander's pitch as a candidate with vision,” or, in other words, Clinton was saying, and CBS was simply assuming to be true, and not challenging at all: the U.S. must stay with its existing system, which produces lower life-expectancies and twice the cost; Bernie’s belief that we can do what Europe, Japan, etc. have done, is impossible for Americans; our country is too corrupt for that, she’s saying (and CBS reported without questioning or challenging). The CBS news-report continued by approvingly quoting Hillary: “'As someone who has a little bit of experience standing up to the health insurance industry, that spent, you know, many, many millions of dollars attacking me, and probably will so again. … I think it's important to point out that there are a lot of reasons we have the health care system we have today,’ she said. ‘I know how much money influences the political decision-making. … However, we started a system that had private health insurance.’” That news-report closed by quoting, also approvingly, Hillary’s statement in 1994: “‘If, for whatever reason, the Congress doesn't pass health care reform, I believe, and I may be totally off base on this, but I believe that by the year 2000 we will have a single payer system,’ she said. ‘I don't even think it's a close call politically. I think the momentum for a single payer system will sweep the country. … It will be such a huge popular issue … that even if it's not successful the first time, it will eventually be.’” Back in 1994, she was citing single-payer as being a threat — never a goal. Wall Street knows where she stands, even if her voters don’t.
     
    Obamacare continues this status-quo, but adds, to it, more federal and state regulations, which make the system even more complex, and thereby further disadvantages small businesses, in their competing against big ones. Hillary Clinton likes Obamacare, and opposes single-payer health insurance. Back in 2008, she said regarding both her own 1993 Hillarycare proposal, and her then-current 2008 campaign proposal: “I never seriously considered a single payer system. … I think that, you know, there’s too many bells and whistles that Americans want that would not be available.” She said, “Talking about single payer really is a conversation ender for most Americans, because then they become very nervous about socialized medicine and all the rest of this.” However, that too was a lie. She reads polls. Just months earlier, on 14-20 December 2007, an Associated Press/Yahoo poll of 1,523 registered voters, including 847 Democrats and 655 Republicans — about the same proportions Democratic and Republican as the U.S. population generally, at that time — asked respondents whether “the United States should adopt a universal health insurance program in which everyone is covered under a program like Medicare that is run by the government and financed by taxpayers,” and also asked them “Do you consider yourself a supporter of a single-payer health care system, that is a national health plan financed by taxpayers in which all Americans would get their insurance from a single government plan”; and 65 percent said yes to the first, and 54 percent said yes to the second. The public wanted single-payer. Hillary had designed her 1993 Hillarycare proposal for the Health Maintenance Organization (HMO) industry; and she designed her 2008 position for the drug companies and the private insurance companies. Single-payer would replace those big political contributors, which she doesn’t want to do; she wants their money.
     
    What she had said in 1994 about Hillarycare needing to be passed into law because of the danger that “by the year 2000 we will have a single-payer system,” was being said by her in private to the top people at Lehman Brothers Health Corporation. She knew that single-payer was popular and would become more so. Consequently, when she said to the public, in her 2008 Presidential campaign, that “single payer really is a conversation ender for most Americans,” she was just blatantly lying. Her real masters are clear: it’s not the public. She instead treats the public like suckers. (Trump just has a different way of doing it, and evidently not so clearly a malignant purpose for it.)
     
    Furthermore, she implicitly has condemned the Canadian and other nations’ single-payer healthcare systems by saying, “We don’t have one size fits all; our country is quite diverse. What works in New York City won’t work in Albuquerque.” (In 2015, according to the OECD, in 2015, the U.S. spent 16.9% of its GDP on healthcare, and Canada spent 10.2%. Canada also has higher life-expectancy.) Her presumption was that what works in Canada or some other large single-payer country cannot work here — that local control must trump everything in order to fix what’s wrong with American health care. She was implying that our healthcare system delivers superior healthcare at a lower cost than those single-payer countries’. However, as we’ve shown, that too is a lie: we pay more, and get less, and she knows it; she lies.
     
    This is how the Clinton scam works: most of the Democratic Party voters are either totally ignorant of it, or else in denial about it. They think that because she’s not nominally a “Republican,” she’s less right-wing than Republicans are. That’s the reason why she won the votes of enough Democrats to become the nominee: they are fooled by her public rhetoric, and don’t know about her actual record in public office, which is simply atrocious.
     
    A Washington Post interview published on August 11th, was titled “The Donald Trump interview that should terrify national Republicans”, and the questioners there were shocked at the extent to which Trump’s economic proposals reflected Democratic and not Republican economic policies — far more so than Hillary Clinton’s do. Trump in this interview made the distinction between the U.S. government borrowing money at record all-time-low interest rates such as now, versus when interest rates are high, and he said that in a time like this, the repairing and rebuilding of our infrastructure will repay maximum returns for the future, because of those record-low interest-rates. He was proposing to more than double the amount that Hillary Clinton is proposing to spend to restore America’s crumbling infrastructure up to world-class standards, because doing this now will reduce instead of increase costs long-term. “Roads, tunnels, hospitals. I mean, everything. We have to fix the airports. Our airports are like third world countries.” 
     
    The health of the public is America’s human-resources infrastructure (notice that he included there “hospitals”), and Trump — not Hillary — is the candidate who recognizes this fact, and who thinks in this way. It’s something that the great Democrat, Franklin Delano Roosevelt (the creator of Social Security, and of the Works Progress Administration), recognized and put into practice starting in 1938, and immediately the U.S. economy boomed, from then on. The FDR boom didn’t start on December 7, 1941, with World War II; it started when FDR first came into office in 1933, and really sped up in 1938 going full speed ahead with Keynesianism. (Keynes’s theory wasn’t even published until 1936.) Trump is correct to say (in effect) that now is the time for FDR2 — not another Herbert Hoover (or, since Hillary is corrupt, Warren Harding).
     
    *  *  *
     
    My vote for Trump will be the first Republican vote in my life, and I hope that this will be the only time in my life when the Democratic candidate is so abysmal that I’ll have to do this. It’s not because I like Trump; it’s because he’s vastly better than the Democratic nominee, whom I consider to be by far the worst Democrat ever. To me, choosing between Trump, who has no political record, and Hillary, who has the worst record in public office of any Democrat ever, is easy. On all other ballot lines, I shall, as always, vote Democratic. In fact, that will be the best way to block from getting to President Trump’s desk the Republican bills that he’ll likely be wanting to sign, such as any bill to eliminate the estate-tax. But I don’t expect that Democrats will at all oppose what might be his boldestprogressive initiatives, such as, perhaps, a European-style healthcare system. If Democrats would block something like that, they’d then be killing their own Party (and cursing their country), and there aren’t many Democrats who are (like Hillary Clinton would be) corrupt enough to carry things quite that far in the conservative direction, as to persist in sustaining healthcare-by-corruption. (As former President Jimmy Carter says of today’s U.S.: “Now it's just an oligarchy with unlimited political bribery being the essence of getting the nominations for president or being elected president.”) Perhaps a President Trump would get so many congressional Democrats and Republicans to vote for a single-payer health insurance proposal, that such a piece of legislation could be signed into law much likelier than if a President Sanders (who would be voted against in Congress by virtually every Republican member) were to be pushing for exactly the same type of legislation and getting only some congressional Democrats (and no Republicans then) to vote for it. Indeed, we all might even turn out to be surprised to find that a President Trump will be the most effective progressive President since FDR. If Democrats control Congress, then he might turn out that way, and become widely revered — and the neoconservatives, who are America’s fascists, will then have to become curses upon some other land, perhaps Israel, because they wouldn’t be able, any more, to make life hell for Americans (such as by our invading Iraq and Libya). They’ll then be like the Soviet Union’s die-hard communists were, after communism ended: failed ‘prophets’ without a country.
     
    Hillary Clinton’s constant refrain against Trump is that he’s a racist. However, as the progressive John V. Walsh argued, on 29 December 2015, in a superb essay, “Who Is the Arch Racist: The Donald or Hillary?” the answer to that question is clearly Clinton, not clearly Trump, despite Trump’s frequent use of racist rhetoric in order to hold enough of the Republican base to be able to win the election. Anyone who believes what either of the two candidates asserts is believing a confirmed and persistent liar, but only Hillary is a consistent liar for the biggest-money interests. With Trump, we really don’t know what his policies would be, because he has no record in public office, but with Hillary Clinton, we do — and it’s truly horrific. 
     
    John Pilger said, “Trump's views on migration are grotesque, but no more grotesque than those of David Cameron. It is not Trump who is the Great Deporter from the United States, but the Nobel Peace Prize winner, Barack Obama.” (Pilger’s disgust against liars and hypocrites such as Obama, reflects his extraodinarily pure progressivism. Obama has been the most effective — and effectively closeted — Republican President; he has been the ultimate deceiver. For example, Blacks have actually lost wealth under Obama, the most of any ethnic group, yet they constantly support him the most of any ethnic group.) And anyone who thinks that Hillary Clinton would be less conservative than Barack Obama has been, is in for a sore disappointment if she becomes the next President. By contrast, a President Donald Trump could well surprise strongly on the upside, because, unlike Hillary, whose record in public office makes clear that she would be horrifying, Trump has no such record at all, and the people who are demonizing him are themselves individuals whose records in public office (or else as journalists) are as despicable as Hillary Clinton’s record is.
     
    Both sides in this election are concentrating on personal attacks against the other, but the ten issues that have been discussed here are vastly more important than, for examples, whether Donald Trump (and/or Bill Clinton) is a rapist (or whether Hillary Clinton hired thugs to make life hell for Bill’s rape-victims), or whether the Trump University scam from which Trump profited, is worse than the Laureate International Universities scam from which Bill and Hillary Clinton profited. At the economic top in America, is unimaginable corruption and rampant psychopathy; and, so, one can reasonably question whether this nation is still a democracy at all, but the scummiest people have funded Hillary Clinton’s career, vastly more than Donald Trump’s. Hillary owes a lot of billionaires a lot of money on their investments in her. Trump does not. 
     
    We’re going to be placing this country into the hands of either Hillary Clinton’s enemies, or else Donald Trump’s enemies, and the latter group are by far the worse of the two. Not to vote, in such a situation, or else to vote for a ‘protest’ candidate and so throw one’s vote away (even if the voting-machine will only be programmed to misreport it), is irresponsible. If America is not a democracy, then, still, a voter’s obligation is to do whatever he or she can in order to maximize the chance that it might become one. As between the two viable options here, Clinton is the clear police-state option, but Trump might possibly fight to restore America’s democracy. The choice of Trump over Clinton is easy to make, because, even in the reasonable worst-case scenario, the damage Trump would likely cause the country (and the world) is vastly less than the damage — nuclear war against Russia — that Clinton would likely cause. This is certainly no ‘Tweedledee, Tweedledum’ election. Not even close to that.
     
     
    By voting for Trump, you add 1 vote to him, and 0 vote to Hillary, and so that’s a real action in the real world of electoral politics: it puts Trump up 1. By voting for Hillary, you add 1 vote to her, and 0 vote to Trump, and so that too is a real action in the real world of electoral politics: it puts Hillary up 1. Either vote is a real vote.
     
    *  *  *

    The real world of electoral politics is the foundation of democracy, without which it can’t function at all. Fantasy votes are not votes that can even possibly participate in democracy. For example: by voting instead for Jill Stein, you add 0 vote to each of the two real-world contestants, just the same as you would be doing by staying home on Election Day.

     
    Regarding the question of whether voting for Jill Stein is at all rational:
     
    The U.S. Presidency is determined in the Electoral College, in which each state’s entire delegation votes the given state’s Election-Day choice, winner-take-all for all of that state’s electors.
     
    Neither Nader nor Perot won even one state, neither of them came even close to winning even a single state.
     
    Jill Stein definitely won’t win even one state.
     
    Voting for her is nothing but a sucker-punch on the ballot there.
     
    When Nader ran, and received 2.74% of the nationwide vote at his peak in 2000, he was on the ballot in 49 states, yet still he won not even a single state. Instead, because he drew off more than enough Gore voters in both New Hampshire and Florida so as to throw NH to Bush and to cause FL to be so close that the outcome there was decided by the 5-4 Republican-majority of the U.S. Supreme Court, Nader made George W. Bush President. If Nader hadn’t been on the FL ballot and drawn 97,488 votes there, Gore would have won FL decisively; Bush’s ‘537 vote win’ couldn’t even possibly have occurred, because Gore’s winning margin there would have precluded any recount at all. (Gore would have won FL by around ten thousand votes.) There would have been no invasion of Iraq. The problem of global warming wouldn’t have been shunted off to the side, as it was by Bush.
     
    Furthermore, Nader also threw NH to Bush, and Gore would have won the Presidency even if only one of those two states, NH and FL, hadn’t been thrown to Bush by Nader. Bush needed both of those two states in order to eke out his 271-266-vote win of the Electoral College, and that’s what Nader’s participation in the contest handed Bush — both states. Nader sucked away enough voter-fools, most of them to the left of center, so as to move the electoral result (the electoral advantage) far to the right of center.
     
    In a Presidential system such as the U.S. (though not in a parliamentary system), only fools vote third-party. These people are either so ignorant they can’t count, or so stupid they think that to ‘register a protest’ is somehow more patriotic than to register a vote that might make an actual difference in the resulting winner, the resulting President.
     
    The stakes in the current election are actually huge: the Tweedledee Tweedledom argument certainly doesn’t apply here (neither did it apply in 2000) to excuse a voter from really participating in the ultimate outcome. It’s our duty to vote only for candidates who might possibly win, even if the electoral system is rigged (such as it is in Iran, to eliminate from having even a real chance to win the Presidency, all candidates who are so good they’d pose a threat to the behind-the-scenes dictators). If the electoral system is rigged, voting is the only way to protest, that has even a possibility of being effective (unless a violent revolution might improve matters, which seems unlikely here). To be a fool is never good. It harms everyone. It’s certainly not an ethical choice, if anyone actually chooses it. (Of course, if the person is too stupid to be said to ‘choose’ it, then one can’t blame the person, but merely feel sorry for his unintended victims.) 
     
    The only realistic choice that is offered is either Clinton or else Trump. Even if it’s a choice between two bad candidates, one of them is far worse than is the other. With Trump as President, there is a realistic possibility of getting a reasonably good President, someone who won enough independents and fooled enough Republicans, to enable him to win the Republican Party’s nomination. With Clinton as President, there’s a realistic possibility of nuclear war with Russia, but a virtual certaintly that this nation will be ruled behind-the-scenes, by-and-for America’s international corporations. That is the real choice we have, if we have any at all. Fantasists have the freedom to stay with their fictions, but realists are obliged not to. Realism is a prerequisite to progressivism. Trump is the clear, and the only reasonable, choice for progressives in this election.
     
    Our choice, Bernie, didn’t make it to the finals. (Hillary and her big-money people beat him — sometimes cheated him.) We are stunningly fortunate that the voters in the other Party’s primaries ended up giving us (for once) a realistic chance to have, as the next U.S. President, a person who is at least no worse than, and is on many of the most important issues far better than, the atrocity (Hillary) that is being offered to us by the Democratic Party. How often does the Republican Party provide the better candidate? In the opinion of this Bernie-supporter, such a thing has never happened since the time of Abraham Lincoln. Donald Trump might not be another Abraham Lincoln, but he might be another Franklin Delano Roosevelt — the greatest progressive of them all. Thank you, Donald Trump, for having given us this opportunity — the realistic possibility to salvage, for America, a progressive future. It couldn’t have happened without you — if it does happen, at all.
     
    On September 16th, the conservative Ramesh Ponnuru headlined an op-ed at Bloomberg News, “Trump Throws Out the Republican Litmus Tests”, and he wrote about what The Week magazine titled “The End of Republican Dogma?” Ponnuru said:
    “Over the span of two days, the Republican nominee for president has proposed new child-care subsidies, new mandatory benefits to be provided by business, the removal of millions of families from the income-tax rolls, and an increase in tax rates on single people making from $112,500 to $190,000 a year. Oh, and he put in a good word for Medicaid too, leaving the impression with many people that he favors expanding it. … None of these positions seem to be costing him any of his supporters, just as his opposition to entitlement reform and free trade did not keep him from winning the Republican nomination. … He has exercised more [ideological] freedom than Republican politicians dreamed they had. For years, they have been complaining that purists had imposed a series of litmus tests that kept their party from winning elections or governing well. … That stranglehold now appears to be broken.”
    Trump is rapidly moving America’s political center in the opposite direction from the direction that Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Hillary Clinton, did, which was toward conservatism, away from progressivism: those conservative Democratic Presidents and (now) would-be President, have moved America’s political center considerably toward the right (the international-corporate agenda). A President Trump would reverse the political direction that this country has been heading in ever since 1993.

    If we progressives don’t help Trump to do that, we shall be throwing away the only such opportunity that the U.S. oligarchy (slipped-up and) allowed us to have. A President Hillary Clinton would have the support of almost all congressional Democrats no matter how right-wing her proposals are, and her big-money financial backers will buy enough congressional Republicans to make her the most effective most conservative Democratic President in decades if not centuries. The prospect is chilling.

    *  *  *

  • Meanwhile, Saudi Stocks Crash Near 7 Year Lows

    Despite the Deutsche-driven bounce in Western markets on Friday, the 'panic in The Kingdom' that we highlighted earlier in the week is accelerating fast. Following demands from officials for banks to reschedule loans to clients affected by last week's decision to cut salaries and bonuses for state employees, Middle-East bank stocks are collapsing and Saudi's Tadawul Index is back near its 2009 lows

    The weakness – despite crude strength – was driven by Saudi Arabia’s central bank decision to direct local lenders to reschedule the consumer loans of clients affected by last week’s decision to scrap the bonuses and allowances of many state employees. As Bloomberg reports,

    The Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, as the central bank is known, said in a statement on its website on Sunday that the step was part of efforts to “reduce pressure on borrowers” whose income was cut by the government’s Sept. 26 package of measures to further trim spending.

     

    The agency said local banks must obtain the client’s approval before rescheduling a loan. Borrowers should present proof that their income has been affected by the recent cuts to the nearest bank branch, the regulator said. Loans taken after the cabinet decision to end the payments won’t be rescheduled.

     

    Under Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the world’s biggest oil exporter has already delayed payments owed to contractors and started cutting fuel subsidies as it tries to manage lower oil prices. The measures may help narrow the budget deficit to 13 percent of gross domestic product this year and below 10 percent in 2017, according to International Monetary Fund estimates.

     

    The cancellation of bonuses and allowances — and a simultaneous decision to lower ministers’ salaries by 20 percent — further spread the burden of shoring up public finances to a population accustomed to years of government largesse. Yet analysts have warned the cuts risk deepening the kingdom’s economic slowdown by damaging consumer confidence.

    Which collapsed Saudi banking stocks to record lows…

     

    And trust is rapidly being lost in the Saudi interbank markets…

     

    And this is a major problem…

    No help at all as oil prices rebounce post-Algiers.

    As the forward market implies dramatic devaluation is looming…

     

    And investors are loading up on record amounts of CDS protection (red line)…

     

    Charts: Bloomberg

  • Here's Why You May Want To Tiptoe Out Before The Party Ends

    Submitted by The Wall Street Examiner's Lee Adler, via Contra Corner blog,

    Private spending on capital goods is a measure of business confidence in the economy. If business people believe the economy will grow, they invest more in plant and equipment. If they are not optimistic, they pull in their horns. This week’s Commerce Department report on Durable Goods orders contains a nugget or two that help us to see how business people are behaving in that regard.

    The picture isn’t good. Apparently business people have been growing less confident in the growth potential of the US economy for the past 16 years. That belief, and the reduction in investment that follows from that belief, runs the risk of being a self fulfilling prophecy. This isn’t just a long term phenomenon. Business investment in capital goods has been flat since 2011, and has been declining for the past 2 years. Meanwhile, over the 5 years that growth in business capital spending has stalled, stock prices went to the moon. The disconnect matters.

    Real Nondefense Capital Goods and Stock Prices - Click to enlarge

    Capital goods have a limited life. Most need replacement within 10 years. If such replacement is delayed, as was the case during the 2008-09 crash and depression, a strong rebound is inevitable.   Replacement can only be delayed for so long, until pent up demand reaches the point where it begins to actualize.

    This is inherent in the natural business cycle. Such rebounds do not require 0% interest rates to occur. Economists and central bankers may argue that ZIRP was needed to trigger such a turn in 2009, but the turn would have come whether rates were 0% or 5%. They always did so in the past, and would have done so again in 2009. The recovery that began in 2002 was a case in point.

    Real Nondefense Capital Goods and Fed Funds 1999-2006 - Click to enlarge

    Even assuming ZIRP was needed as a trigger, after a few months it would no longer have been. In fact, 0% interest rates have had no effect since that initial rebound. The growth phase slowed in 2012, settled into a trend of replacement only, with zero growth, and then began to steadily contract in late 2014, a trend that remains in force today.

    Real Nondefense Capital Goods and Fed Funds - Click to enlarge

    It appears that since 2011 we have gone through an entire business cycle with rates pinned at zero for no reason. The Fed has put us in a box. It can no longer even pretend to enhance a rebound by lowering rates.

    Capital goods aren’t the only aspect of business investment. In addition to equipment, there’s also physical plant, that is, the buildings that house the business, whether commercial, industrial, retail, or service. To get an idea whether investment in buildings changed the picture any, I created a combined index of non defense capital goods plus private investment in commercial and industrial property. I converted that index to real terms using the PPI for construction.

    The housing bubble generated a commercial construction bubble that sent total real business investment to a record high in 2008. But the crash followed and the recovery was weak, fizzling out altogether in 2014. Real investment is now down 5% over the last 2 years, and by 20% since 2008 when real business investment hit its lagging peak. Compare that to the current 49% gain in stock prices from the 2007 peak to the August 2016 level. It’s hard to fathom any rationale for a 49% rise in stock prices while real business investment has shrunk by 20%.

    Real Business Investment and Stock Prices - Click to enlarge

    There should be a connection between business investment and Commercial and Industrial Loans. Businesses typically borrow the funds for purchases of equipment or to fund construction of physical plant. From 1999 through 2014, such borrowing moved roughly concurrently with business investment. Not only the timing, but the relative directions were similar. But in 2012 the relative directions of the curves of the two series began to diverge as growth in business investment slowed while C&I Loans soared. In 2014-15, the normal relationship became completely unhinged. Businesses pulled in their horns in making real investments, but they continued to increase their borrowing exponentially.

    Business borrowing had always tracked real business investment until 2014. Then businesses stopped investing in plant and equipment. But they continued borrowing at a breakneck pace. It was as if the borrowed funds were disappearing into a black hole. But in spite of there apparently being no tangible assets to back the new borrowing, banks have been all too happy to take the business. The credit bubble has been expanding at a breathtaking pace as a result.

    At one point in early 2015 C&I lending was growing at a  13% annual rate. That has only slowed to a 9.5% growth rate today while real business investment has been shrinking.

    Where’s it going? We should all know the answer to that question by now. Driven by ZIRP and massive amounts of excess cash in the system, corporations are borrowing to buy back their own stocks. CEOs, CFOs, and their fellow executives conspire to issue massive stock option grants to themselves. Then the have their companies borrow the funds for free to buy the stock issued under those option grants. They shrink the shares outstanding and drive their stock prices higher in the process. As they raid their companies, everybody’s happy because their stock prices go higher. Corporate boards and regulatory bodies do nothing to stop the looting because the scam looks like a win win for everybody.

    Real Business Investment and Commercial and Industrial Loans - Click to enlarge

    But it’s not. It’s just another massive bubble, a financial engineering bubble. It is a bubble driven by the cold calculations of the criminal masterminds in the C-suites of America’s corporations. It is a bubble enabled and funded by the mass insanity of central bankers and clueless investors around the world. And it is a bubble egged on by the cheerleaders on Wall Street and their financial media handmaidens.

    Stock Prices, Real Business Investment and Commercial and Industrial Loans - Click to enlarge

    So party on, Garth! Party on! But you might want to consider tiptoeing out the back door before they lock the exits.

  • WSJ Reports "No Settlement Deal" Between Deutsche, DOJ As German Econ Minister Slams Deutsche Bank

    As we predicted on Friday, and as we reported earlier today, the AFP “story” of a $5.4 billion revised settlement between DB and DOJ was indeed “sources” on Twitter, and had no basis in reality. The reason: not only has John Cryan barely started the negotiations with the DOJ, and is set to arrive in the US this week to beg for mercy, but as the WSJ, which broke the original settlement story more than two weeks ago just reported, Deutsche Bank’s settlement talks with the DOJ are continuing, “with no deal yet presented to senior decision makers for approval on either side.

    The talks are moving forward, but they have “not progressed to a degree that a proposed deal has reached senior-level review at the Justice Department or with Deutsche Bank’s supervisory board, people familiar with the matter said.”

    While there is much more information one could hope for in what is now the most important litigation in capital markets, we will gladly take what the WSJ reports over the market-manipulating garbage spewed by AFP with the sole intent of getting both DB and the market to close higher.

    Some more details from the WSJ:

    “People familiar with the continuing settlement talks say details remain in flux. Justice Department lawyers have floated the possibility of also reaching accords with other European banks who have yet to resolve similar investigations and announce them at once, but no such move is certain, the people say.”

    The WSJ also adds that CEO John Cryan plans to be in Washington, D.C. this week for meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. The visit has stoked speculation that he could delve in person into ongoing talks with the Justice Department. The Deutsche Bank spokesman declined to comment on any matters related to talks with Justice Department.

    Meanwhile, as Deutsche ponders what rumors it will have to unleash tomorrow to provide another much needed boost to the stock, especially if the market sells off on today’s denial of the settlement speculation, German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel accused Deutsche Bank on Sunday of blaming speculators for last week’s plunge in its share price when the bank had itself made speculation its business.

    Cited by Reuters, he said thatI did not know if I should laugh or cry that the bank that made speculation a business model is now saying it is a victim of speculators,” Gabriel told reporters on a plane to Iran, which he is visiting with a business delegation.

    That does not sound like the soothing words of a government willing to backstop its biggest lender.

    Gabriel, who is also leader of the Social Democrats the junior partner in Angela Merkel’s coalition government, also said he was worried about those who were employed by the lender. As Reuters repeats, the problems of Deutsche Bank are awkward for Berlin, which has berated many euro zone peers for economic mismanagement and taken a hard line on other EU nations giving state aid to bail out their problem banks.

    Last week the German finance ministry moved swiftly to dismiss a report that a government rescue plan was being prepared in case Deutsche Bank was unable to raise sufficient new capital to settle litigation which includes cases dating back to its expansion before the financial crisis.

    However, if now that the rumors of a revised settlement have been taken off the table if only for the time being, and if the selling once again resumes – if for no other reason that to prompt precisely such a discounted settlement borne out of existential fears for the German bank – the German finance ministry may find itself busy once again: on one hand denying it would bailout Deutsche Bank, on the other scrambling to round up all possible resources – listed in a previous post – to boost confidence in the German bank, just in case another fake rumor of an imminent “fix” doesn’t restore the public’s, and counterparties’, confidence in the ailing lender with tens of trillions of derivatives on its books.

  • David Stockman: America Now Lives Under A "Perverted Regime"

    Submitted by Adam Taggart via PeakProsperity.com,

    The rise of Trump – and Bernie Sanders too – vastly transcends ordinary politics. In fact, it reaches deep into a ruined national economy that has morphed into rank casino capitalism under the misguided policies and faithless rule of the Washington and Wall Street elites.
     
    This epic deformation has delivered historically unprecedented set-backs to the bottom 90% of American households. They have seen their real wealth and living standards steadily deteriorate for several decades now, even as vast financial windfalls have accrued to the elite few at the very top.
     
    In fact, during the last 30 years, the real net worth of the bottom 90% has not increased at all. At the same time, the top 1% has experienced a 300% gain while the real wealth of the Forbes 400 has risen by 1,000%.
     
    That’s not old-fashioned capitalism at work; it’s the fruit of a perverted regime of printing press money and debt-fueled faux prosperity that has been foisted on the nation by the bipartisan ruling elites.
     
    To be sure, the proximate cause of this year’s election upheaval is similar to that in Reagan’s time. Back then, an era of drastic bipartisan mis-governance generated an electoral impulse to sweep out the Washington stables.
     
    Now, however, it is not just the Beltway political class that is under attack. The very foundations of American economic life are imperiled. What remained of healthy market capitalism in Reagan’s time is no more.
     
    It has been battered by 30 years of madcap money printing at the Fed. It labors under the $50 trillion of new public and private debt generated by that monetary eruption. And it staggers from the destructive blows of serial financial bubbles.
     
    These bubbles have self-evidently resulted in a destructive boom-and-bust cycle in the financial system, but also much more. Bubble Finance has drained productivity and efficiency from the Main Street economy and has channeled vast resources to speculators and wasteful malinvestments.
     
    ~ "Trumped!" by David Stockman

    David Stockman, former director of the OMB under President Reagan, former US Representative, and veteran financier is an insider's insider. Few people understand the ways in which both Washington DC and Wall Street work and intersect better than he does.

    In his upcoming book, Trumped! A Nation on the Brink of Ruin…And How to Bring it Back, Stockman lays out how we have devolved from a free market economy into a managed one that operates for the benefit of a privileged few. And when trouble arises, these few are bailed out at the expense of the public good.

    Stockman brings us his report of what 30 years of politics, degenerative crony capitalism and “bubble finance” have finally wrought. The upheaval and crossroads represented by Donald Trump’s candidacy spell economic disaster or resurgence, depending on the steps America chooses to take from here:

    This election is enormously important but it’s not entirely about the candidates, per se, but about the fact that much of the country is beginning to recognize that we’ve been on the wrong path for a long time and we’re reaching a dead end. And that’s why, you know, on the cover of this new book, I have a map of America and the east and west coast are colored, shaded, and the vast area in between is in white. I call it Flyover America.

     

    And part of the book is to try to explain the phenomena of the Trump campaign, which came out of nowhere, and why there seems to be such an unexpected ground swell of economically driven support. Of course, the elite media wants to blame it on racism and xenophobia and, you know, small-mindedness of one type or another. But I think the underlying driver here, the underlying alienation comes from an economic policy that has benefitted enormously the bicoastal elites and we go through that, a very small share of the population that lives off finance venture capital and the enormous expansion of the warfare state and welfare state in Washington. Versus the rest of America – call it the 90% to use a general term.

     

    But the thing that I try to demonstrate in the book is that since 1987 when Greenspan arrived at the Fed in this era of bubble finances I call it incepted, we basically have a bifurcated economy. The bottom 90% of the population has no more real net worth today if you use an honest inflation measure to deflate nominal values. It has no more net worth today than it did in 1987. That’s nearly 30 years of going nowhere. The top 1% has gained 300% in net worth, which the Forbes 400 to take the final clip on this, is 1,000% gain.

     

    Now, that’s not market capitalism at work. That is a, as I called it, a deformed or mutant system of crony capitalism and finance-driven economic life coming right out of the central bank and that whole complex of unsound policy that has produced a result that is very unsustainable. Not only has there been no net worth gain as we lay out in the book but if you just go to the year 2000, real median household income – again, deflated with, I think, an accurate measure of the cost of living faced by most households – is down nearly 20% from where it was when Bill Clinton was shuffling out of the White House.

    Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with David Stockman (49m:26s)…

  • JPMorgan Joins Yellen and Summers In Hinting The Fed May Buy Stocks Next

    During her latest testimony in Congress, when asked by rep Mick Mulvaney if the Fed has considered buying equities, Janet Yellen had a cryptic, yet open to interpretation answer: “the Federal Reserve is not permitted to purchase equities. We can only purchase U.S. treasuries and agency securities. I did mention in a speech in Jackson Hole, though, where I discussed longer term issues and difficulties we could have in providing adequate monetary policy. Accommodation may be somewhere in the future, down the line that this is the kind of thing that Congress might consider.”

    Then, the very next day, during a video conference Q&A, Yellen once again unexpectedly latched on to the topic of the Fed buying stocks, saying that “the idea of expanding into areas like equities might be “good thing to think about,” noting that (for now) The Fed is more restricted in which assets it can purchase than other central banks. If we found, I think as other countries did, that they could reach the limits in terms of purchasing safe assets like longer-term government bonds, it could be useful to be able to intervene directly in assets where the prices have a more direct link to spending decisions.

    Assets such as equities.

    Then, jumping on to the idea of nationalizing the stock market, none other than the world’s most farcical former econopundit, Larry Summers, who has plunged to such recent depths he has to retweet himself on Twitter to get page views for his blog, “floated the idea of continuous purchases of stocks as a potential ingredient in a recipe for the developed world to strengthen economies struggling with subdued growth and inflation.”

    Cited by Bloomberg, Summer said that among the proposals that deserve “serious reflection” is the purchase of a “wider range of assets on a sustained and continuing basis,” Summers said in a lecture at a Bank of Japan conference in Tokyo Friday. “I’m not prepared to make a policy recommendation at this point,” he told reporters later.

    It got even funnier when Summers said that “there are obviously important political and economic questions associated with government ownership of companies,” adding that “some critics could term such a policy as “socialism, while others could highlight that governments already buy stocks in other ways, such as in the U.S. for federal employee pension funds.

    Still others could term such a policy as utter idiocy, because once a price-indiscriminate entity is unleashed on stocks directly and legally (as opposed to the current framework whereby the Fed merely intervenes by way of its HFT proxy, Citadel, at key inflection points to break selling momentum), it is game over for price discovery and for the concept of capitalism.

    However, one would not find JPM among the “others.” In a note released on Friday, the otherwise serious commentator Nick Panigirtzoglou, author of the closely followed “Flows and Liquidity” weekly publication, when discussing the limits of QE – a topic prominently touched upon by Bridgewater this past week, said the following:

    How big are the QE capacity constraints facing central banks? One of the arguments put forward by some in explaining the BoJ’s shift away from QE to yield targeting is for the BoJ to avoid finding itself in the same position as the ECB is currently: i.e. facing a QE cliff at a not too distant point in the future.

     

    We believe that QE constraints are rather artificial. One of the channels via which QE operates is via bolstering the capacity of debt capital markets. Indeed, this year’s big increase in spread product supply coincided with more QE by the ECB and the BoJ relative to the previous year. More bond issuance not only implies more credit creation, helping the economy, but also more QE capacity allowing central banks to purchase more assets in the future.

     

    But QE need not be confined to bond instruments in our mind. By limiting themselves to bonds, central banks are indeed deemed to face quantitative constraints given declining government bond issuance even as spread product issuance has increased. This year’s purchases by the ECB, BoJ and the BoE account for 75% of total net bond issuance globally excluding EM local debt.

    And there you have it: first, a central banker, then a still somewhat prominent (if recently discredited) economist, and now a respected sell-side analyst, have all jumped on the “Fed should buy equities” bandwagon. We point this out just because it increasingly appears that the Fed is launching trial balloons at what its next, emergency policy may be at a time when the US central bank should, according to experts, be getting ready to hike rates. Which is why, something tells us that the market’s 59% odds of a December rate hike as of December will be, as usually, dramatically wrong.

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Today’s News 2nd October 2016

  • Paul Craig Roberts Urges "Bring Back The Cold War"

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    Pundits have declared a “New Cold War.” If only! The Cold War was a time when leaders focused on reducing tensions between nuclear powers. What we have today is much more dangerous: Washington’s reckless and irresponsible aggression toward the other major nuclear powers, Russia and China.

    During my lifetime American presidents worked to defuse tensions with Russia. President John F. Kennedy worked with Khrushchev to defuse the Cuban Missile Crisis. President Richard Nixon negotiated SALT I and the anti-ballistic missile treaty, and Nixon opened to Communist China. President Carter negotiated SALT II. Reagan worked with Soviet leader Gorbachev and ended the Cold War. The Berlin Wall came down. Gorbachev was promised that in exchange for the Soviet Union’s agreement to the reunification of Germany, NATO would not move one inch to the East.

    Peace was at hand. And then the neoconservatives, rehabilitated by the Israeli influence in the American press, went to work to destroy the peace that Reagan and Gorbachev had achieved. It was a short-lasting peace. Peace is costly to the profits of the military/security complex. Washington’s gigantic military and security interests are far more powerful than the peace lobby.

    Since the advent of the criminal Clinton regime, every American president has worked overtime to raise tensions with Russia and China.

    China is confronted with the crazed and criminal Obama regime’s declaration of the “pivot to Asia” and the prospect of the US Navy controlling the sea lanes that provision China.

    Russia is even more dangerously threatened with US nuclear missile bases on her border and with US and NATO military bases stretching from the Baltics to the Black Sea.

    Russia is also threatened with endless provocations and with demonization that is clearly intended to prepare Western peoples for war against “the Russian threat.” Extreme and hostile words stream from the mouth of the Democratic presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton, who has called the president of Russia “the new Hitler” and threatened Russia with military force. Insouciant Americans are capable of electing this warmonger who would bring Armageddon upon the earth.

    Yesterday, Israel’s voice in the US, the New York Times, added to Hillary’s demonization of the most responsible leader in the world with this editorial: “Vladimir Putin’s Outlaw State.” This irresponsible and propagandistic editorial, no doubt written by the neoconservatives, blames all the troubles in Ukraine and Syria on Putin. The NYT presstitutes know that they have no case, so they drag in the US-orchestrated false report on MH-17 recently released by Washington’s Netherlands vassal.

    This report is so absurd as to cast doubt on whether intelligence exists anywhere in the Western world. Russia and the now independent Russian provinces that have separated from Ukraine have no interest whatsoever in shooting down a Malaysian airliner. But despite this fact, Russia, according to the orchestrated report, sent a surface-to-air missile, useful only at high altitude, an altitude far higher than the Ukrainian planes fly that are attacking Russians in the separated republics, to the “rebels” so that the “rebels” could shoot down a Malaysian airliner. Then the missile system was sent back to Russia.

    How insouciant does a person have to be to believe this propaganda from the New York Times?

    Does the New York Times write this nonsense because it is bankrupt and lives on CIA subsidies?

    It is obvious that the Malaysian airliner was destroyed for the purpose of blaming Russia so that Washington could force Europe to cooperate in applying illegal sanctions on Russia in an attempt to destabilize Russia, a country that placed itself in the way of Washington’s determination to destabilize Syria and Iran.

    In a recent speech, the mindless cipher, who in his role as US Secretary of Defense serves as a front man for the armaments industry, declared the one trillion dollars (1,000 billion dollars or 1,000,000 million dollars, that is, one million dollars one million times) that Washington is going to spend of Americans’ money for nuclear force renewal is so we can “get up in the morning to go to school, to go to work, to live our lives, to dream our dreams and to give our children a better future.”

    But Russia’s response to this buildup in Washington’s strategic nuclear weapons is, according to Defense Secretary Aston B. Carter, “saber rattling” that “raises serious questions about Russia’s leaders commitment to strategic stability.”

    Do you get the picture? Or are you an insouciant American? Washington’s buildup is only so that we can get up in the morning and go to school and work, but Russia’s buildup in response to Washington’s buildup upsets “strategic stability.”

    What the Pentagon chief means is that Russia is supposed to sit there and let Washington gain the upper hand so Washington can maintain “strategic stability” by dictating to Russia. By not letting Washington prevail, Russia is upsetting “strategic stability.”

    US Secretary of State John Kerry, who has been broken and tamed by the neoconservatives, recently displayed the same point of view with his “ultimatum” to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. In effect, Kerry told Lavrov that Russia must stop helping Syria resist the jihadist forces and allow the US-supported ISIS to regain the initiative and reduce Syria to the chaos in which Washington left Libya and Iraq. Otherwise, Kerry said that the agreement to cooperate is off.

    There can be no cooperation between the US and Russia over Syria, because the two government’s goals are entirely different. Russia wants to defeat ISIS, and the US wants to use ISIS to overthrow Assad. This should be clear to the Russians. Yet they still enter into “agreements” that Washington has no intention of keeping. Washington breaks the agreements and blames Russia, thus creating more opportunities to paint Russia as untrustworthy. Without Russia’s cooperation in setting themselves up for blame, Russia’s portrait would not be so black.

    On September 28, 2016, the New York Times gave us a good example of how Washington’s propaganda system works.

    The headline set the stage: “Russia’s Brutal Bombing of Aleppo May Be Calculated, and It May Be Working.” According to the NYT report, Russia was not bombing ISIS. Russia was “destroying hospitals and schools, choking off basic supplies, and killing aid workers and hundreds of civilians.”

     

    The NYT asks: “What could possibly motivate such brutality?”

     

    The NYT answers: Russia is “massacring Aleppo’s civilians as part of a calculated strategy . . . designed to pressure [moderates] to ally themselves with extremists,” thereby discrediting the forces that Washington has sent to overthrow Syria and to reduce the country to chaos.

    When America’s Newspaper of Record is nothing but a propaganda ministry, what is America?

    Pundits keep explaining that Washington’s 15 year old wars in the Middle East are about controlling the routing of energy pipelines. Little doubt this is a factor as it brings on board powerful American energy and financial interests. But this is not the motive for the wars. Washington, or the neoconservatives who control the US government, intend to destabilize the Russian Federation, the former Soviet Central Asian countries, and China’s Muslim province by adding Syria and then Iran to the chaos that Washington has created in Iraq and Libya. If Washington succeeds in destroying Syria as it succeeded in destroying Libya and Iraq, Iran becomes the last buffer for Russia. If Washington then knocks off Iran, Russia is set up for destabilization by jihadists operating in Muslim regions of the Russian Federation.

    This is clear as day. Putin understands this. But Russia, which existed under Washington’s domination during the Yeltsin years, has been left threatened by Washington’s Fifth Columns in Russia. There are a large number of foreign-financed NGOs in Russia that Putin finally realized were Washington’s agents. These Washington operatives have been made to register as foreign-financed, but they are still functioning.

    Russia is also betrayed by a section of its elite who are allied economically, politically, and emotionally with Washington. I have termed these Russians “America Worshipers.” Their over-riding cause is to have Russia integrated with the West, which means to be a vassal of Washington.

    Washington’s money even seems to have found its way into Russian “think tanks” and academic institutions. According to this report, two think tanks, one Russian one American, possibly funded by Washington’s money, have concluded that “US,Russia ‘Have far more common interests than differences’ in Asia-Pacific.”

    This “academic report” is a direct assault on the Russian/Chinese alliance. It makes one wonder whether the report was funded by the CIA. The Russian media fall for the “common interest” propaganda, because they desire to be included in the West. Like Russian academics, the Russian media know English, not Chinese. Russia’s history since Peter the Great is with the West. So that is where they want to be. However, these America Worshipping Russians cannot understand that to be part of the West means being Washington’s vassal, or if they do understand the price, they are content with a vassal’s status like Germany, Great Britain, France, and the rest of the European puppet states.

    To be a vassal is not an unusual choice in history. For example, many peoples chose to be Rome’s vassals, so those elements in Russia who desire to be Washington’s vassal have precedents for their decision.

    To reduce Russia’s status to Washington’s vassal, we have Russian-US cooperation between the Moscow-based Institute of World Economy and International Relations and the US-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. These two co-conspirators against Russian sovereignty are working to destroy Russia’s strategic alliance with China and to create a US-Russian Pacific Alliance in its place. One of the benefits, the joint report declares, is “maintaining freedom of navigation and maritime security.”

    “Freedom of navigation” is Washington’s term for controlling the sea lanes that supply China. So now we have a Russian institute supporting Washington’s plans to cut off resource flow into China. This idiocy on the part of the Moscow-based Institute of World Economy and International Relations is unlikely to reassure China about its alliance with Russia. If the alliance is broken, Washington can more easily deal with the two constraints on its unilateralism.

    Additionally, the joint report says that Moscow could cooperate with Washington in confidence-building measures to resolve territorial disputes in the Asia-Pacific region. What this means is that Russia should help Washington pressure China to give up its territorial claims.

    One cannot but wonder if the Moscow-based Institute of World Economy and International Relations is a CIA front. If it is not, the CIA is getting a free ride.

    The foreign policy of the United States rests entirely on propagandistic lies. The presstitute media, a Ministry of Propaganda, establishes an orchestrated reality by treating lies as fact. News organizations around the world, accustomed as they are to following Washington’s lead, echo the lies as if they are facts.

    Thus Washington’s lies–such as Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction, Iranian nukes, Assad’s use of chemical weapons, Russian invasions–become the reality.

    Russia’s very capable spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, understands that Washington uses the Western media to control explanations by shaping public opinion. She terms it a “reality show.” However, Zakharova thinks the problem is that Washington misuses “international relations and international platforms for addressing internal issues.” By this she means that Obama’s foreign policy failures have made him hysterical and impudent as he strives to leave a legacy, and that American/Russian relations are poisoned by the US presidential campaign that is painting Trump as a “Putin stooge” for not seeing the point of conflict with Russia.

    The US presstitutes are disreputable. This morning NPR presented us with a report on Chinese censorship of the media as if this was something that never happens in the US. Yet NPR not only censors the news, but uses disinformation as a weapon in behalf of Washington and Israel’s agendas. Anyone who depends on NPR is presented a very controlled picture of the world. And do not forget German newspaper editor Udo Ulfkotte, who admits he planted stories for the CIA in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitnung and says that there is no significant European journalist who doesn’t do the same thing

    The situation is far more serious than Zakharova realizes. Russians seem unable to get their minds around the fact that the neoconservatives are serious about imposing Washington’s hegemony on the rest of the world. The neoconservative doctrine declares that it is the principal goal of US foreign policy to prevent the rise of any country that would have sufficient power to serve as a check on American unilateralism. This neoconservative doctrine puts Russia and China in Washington’s crosshairs. If the Russian and Chinese governments do not yet understand this, they are not long for this world.

    The neoconservative doctrine fits perfectly with the material interests of the US military/security complex. The US armaments and spy industries have had 70 years to entrench themselves with a huge claim on the US budget. This politically powerful interest group has no intention of letting go of its hold on US resources.

    As long ago as 1961, President Dwight D. Eisenhower in his last public address to the American people warned that the Cold War confronted Americans with a new internal danger as large as the external Soviet threat:

    “Our military organization today bears little relation to that known by any of my predecessors in peacetime, or indeed by the fighting men of World War II or Korea.

     

    “Until the latest of our world conflicts, the United States had no armaments industry. American makers of plowshares could, with time and as required, make swords as well. But now we can no longer risk emergency improvisation of national defense; we have been compelled to create a permanent armaments industry of vast proportions. Added to this, three and a half million men and women are directly engaged in the defense establishment. We annually spend on military security more than the net income of all United States corporations.

     

    “This conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience. The total influence — economic, political, even spiritual — is felt in every city, every State house, every office of the Federal government. We recognize the imperative need for this development. Yet we must not fail to comprehend its grave implications. Our toil, resources and livelihood are all involved; so is the very structure of our society.

     

    “In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.

     

    “We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes. We should take nothing for granted. Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals, so that security and liberty may prosper together.”

    President Eisenhower’s warning that our liberties were equally at stake from the military/security complex as from the Soviet Threat did not last 24 hours. The military/security complex buried Eisenhower’s warning with extraordinary hype of the Soviet Threat.

    In truth, there was no Soviet threat. Stalin had buffered Russia from the West with his control of Eastern Europe, just as Washington controlled Western Europe. Stalin had eliminated Trotsky and his supporters who stood for world revolution. Stalin declared “socialism in one country.”

    Stalin terminated international communism. But the American military/security complex had much money to gain from the Amerian taxpayers in order to “protect America from International Communism.” So the fact that there was no effort on the part of the Soviet Union to subvert the world was ignored. Instead, every national liberation movement was declared by the US military/industrial complex to be a “falling domino” of the Communist takeover of the world.

    Ho Chi Minh begged Washington for help against the French colonialists in Vietnam. Washington told him to go to hell. It was Washington that sent Ho Cho Minh to seek communist support.

    The long Vietnam war went on for years. It enriched the military/security complex and officers’ pensions. But it was otherwise entirely pointless. There were no dominoes to fall. Vietnam won the war but is open to American influence and commerce.

    Because of the military/security complex more than 50,000 Americans died in the war and many thousands more suffered physical and psychological wounds. Millions of Vietnamese suffered death, maiming, birth defects and illnesses associated with Washington’s use of Agent Orange.

    The entire war was totally pointless. It achieved nothing but destruction of innocents.

    This is Washington’s preferred way. The corrupt capitalism that rules in America has no interest in life, only in profit. Profit is all that counts. If entire countries are destroyed and left in ruins, all the better for American armaments industries.

    Yes, please, a new Cold War. We need one desperately, a conflict responsibly managed in place of the reckless, insane drive for world hegemony emanating from the crazed, evil criminals in Washington who are driving the world to Armageddon.

  • Sept 11 Widow Is First American To Sue Saudi Arabia For Terrorism: Her Full Lawsuit

    Two days ago, after the stunning Congressional override of Obama’s veto of the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism (JASTA), aka the “Sept.11” bill, we wondered how long until the first lawsuit by a Sept 11 victim naming Saudi Arabia as a defendant would emerge.

    We didn’t have long to wait. 

    On Friday, September 30, a woman widowed when her husband was killed at the Pentagon on Sept. 11, 2001 became the first American to sue the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in Washington DC District Court, just two days after Congress slammed Obama for siding with Saudi Arabia, overriding his presidential veto only for the first time in his administration, and enacting legislation allowing Americans to sue foreign governments for allegedly playing a role in terrorist attacks on U.S. soil.

    Stephanie Ross DeSimone alleged the kingdom provided material support to al-Qaeda and its leader, Osama bin Laden. Her suit is also filed on behalf of the couple’s daughter. DeSimone was two months pregnant when her husband, Navy Commander Patrick Dunn was killed.

    She is suing for wrongful death and intentional infliction of emotional distress, and is seeking unspecified compensatory and punitive damages.

    In the lawsuit she alleges that “at all material times, Saudi Arabia, through its officials, officers, agents and employees, provided material support and resources to Osama bin Laden (“bin Laden”) and Al Qaeda. The support provided by Saudi Arabia to bin Laden and Al Qaeda assisted in or contributed to the preparation and execution of the September 11th attacks and the extrajudicial killing of Patrick Dunn.

    She adds that “Al Qaeda was funded, to the tune of approximately $30 million per year, by diversions of money from Islamic charities” and explains”

    Al Qaeda’s development into a global terrorist network was funded primarily by the money and other material support it received from the Kingdom and purported charities acting as agents and alter-egos of the government of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, many of which worked with the Al Qaeda leadership during the Afghan jihad. These governmental agents served as the primary conduits for channeling financial, logistical, operational, and ideological support for Al Qaeda’s global jihad for more than twenty years.

    Fifteen of the 19 men who hijacked airliners used in the attack were Saudi nationals. One jet struck the Pentagon, seat of the U.S. military, two destroyed the World Trade Center’s twin towers in New York while another crashed in a Pennsylvania field as its passengers fought back against the hijackers.

    While a U.S. commission that investigated the 2001 attacks said in a 2004 report that it “found no evidence that the Saudi government, as an institution, or senior officials within the Saudi government funded al-Qaeda”, this will be the first time that a US court will be forced to rule if Saudi Arabia was indeed responsible.  The kingdom has previously denied culpability. Its embassy didn’t immediately reply to an e-mailed message seeking comment on the suit.

    An official at Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs told the state-run Saudi Press Agency on Sept. 29 that the U.S. Congress must correct the 9/11 bill to avoid “serious unintended consequences,” adding the law is of “great concern” to the Kingdom.

    Well, thanks to this lawsuit, Saudi Arabia will now be able to provide its opinion in court. Here is what it will have to deny, courtesy of DeSimone’s lawsuit:

    Beyond the massive financial sponsorship of Al Qaeda’s global jihad, the Saudi government, through its agents, officials and purported charities, has been intimately involved in all aspects of Al Qaeda’s operations including:

    • (1) raising and laundering funds on behalf of Islamic terrorist organizations and associated separatist movements, including Al Qaeda;
    • (2) channeling funds to Islamic terrorist organizations, fighters and associated separatist movements, including Al Qaeda;
    • (3) providing financial and logistical support and physical assets to Islamic fighters and terrorists, including Al Qaeda;
    • (4) aiding and abetting Al Qaeda’s terrorist activities, including the planning, coordination, funding and execution of terrorist attacks;
    • (5) permitting Islamic fighters and terrorists, including Al Qaeda members, to use ostensible employment with their organizations as a vehicle for gaining access to conflict regions, thereby allowing those individuals to carry out militant and terrorist activities in those areas;
    • (6) serving as liaisons to localized terrorist organizations on behalf of Al Qaeda, thereby assisting Al Qaeda in expanding its operational base and sphere of influence;
    • (7) funding and facilitating shipments of arms and supplies to Islamic terrorist organizations and associated separatist movements, including Al Qaeda;
    • (8) funding camps used by Al Qaeda and associated jihadist organizations to train soldiers and terrorists, including camps used to train the September 11th hijackers;
    • (9) actively recruiting new members for Islamic terrorist organizations and associated separatist movements, including Al Qaeda;
    • (10) working throughout the World to spread Al Qaeda’s jihadist ideology and draw new adherents to its cause;
    • (11) serving as channels for distributing information and documentation within Islamic terrorist organizations and associated separatist movements, including Al Qaeda, and from Islamic terrorist organizations and separatist movements to the media;
    • (12) disseminating publications designed to advance Al Qaeda’s radical Islamist ideology throughout the Muslim world and legitimize violent jihad against Christians and Jews on the grounds that they are “infidels” who do not deserve to live; and
    • (13) openly advocating for Muslims to take up arms against Western and democratic societies, including the United States.

    The full 54-page lawsuit laying out the plaintiff’s entire case is presented below. And now that the first lawsuit has been filed, we expect a deluge of similar lawsuits. It remains unclear if, now that it is about to be dragged into countless US courts, Saudi Arabia will execute on its threat from 6 months ago and proceed to sell billions in Treasuries and other US assets.

    Saudi Lawsuit

  • 90 Days Later: Still No Signs Of Brexit 'Doom & Gloom'

    For the first half of the year, we were warned early and often by authorities that the Brexit vote could be a calamity for the ages.

    For example, the IMF claimed that a “Leave” result would threaten to “cause severe damage”, while Standard and Poor’s said that it would “paralyze” investment in the UK.

    But, as Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins notes, it turns out that the real Brexit casualty isn’t the UK economy – instead it is the reputation of the many professional economists who wrongly predicted doom and gloom as the likely aftermath.

    THE STORY SO FAR

    Today’s chart looks at the three months before and after the Brexit vote, which took place on June 23, 2016.

     

    Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

     

    The two charts tracked are the GBP/EUR and the FTSE 100. The former is the price of the British pound in terms of euros, and the latter is a major stock index that includes the largest companies listed in London, such as Barclays, Glencore, HSBC, Royal Dutch Shell, or Sainsbury’s.

    As expected, both markets have seen some action in the aftermath of the vote to leave. The pound has depreciated in terms of euros, but it is still higher now than it was from 2009-2011 in the post-crisis period. Against the ultra-strong USD, the pound is at decade-lows – but many other currencies are in similar territory as well.

    The FTSE 100 is another story. It’s relatively close to all-time highs – and even despite the fears of a potential collapse of Deutsche Bank, it’s climbed over 12% since the initial Brexit slump.

    In both cases, the action was partly underscored by the Bank of England, which announced a new stimulus program (QE) after its August meeting, while cutting rates from 0.5% to 0.25%.

    OTHER INDICATORS

    While there’s been movement in the currency and equity markets, other economic indicators have been status quo or better for the UK so far.

    Retail sales beat in July and August, and unemployment remains at 11-year lows. Purchasing manager indices dropped temporarily, but jumped back up.

    The economists that predicted that the sky was falling? They’ve been forced to revise growth expectations back up, at least on a short-term basis. It’s been dubbed the “Brexit Bounce” by The Spectator, a conservative magazine based in London.

    While there is likely still going to be some long-term fallout from the Brexit decision, many “experts” blew it on this one.

  • Meet The Young Virginia Democrat That Registered 19 Dead People To Vote In Virginia

    Just yesterday we wrote about an FBI investigation into potential voter fraud in the critical swing state of Virginia after it was revealed that 19 dead people had recently been re-registered to vote (see “FBI Investigating More Dead People Voting In The Key Swing State Of Virginia“).  While the Washington Post caught wind of the investigation, it was not known who was behind the operation…until now.  

    Meet, Andrew Spieles, a student at James Madison University, and apparently “Lead Organizer” for HarrisonburgVOTES.  According to the Daily News-Record, Spieles confessed to re-registering 19 deceased Virginians to vote in the 2016 election cycle

    While this should come as a surprise to precisely 0 people, Spieles just happens to be Democrat who, accorded to a deleted FaceBook post, apparently recently ran for Caucus Chair of the Virginia Young Democrats. 

    It’s too bad really, sounds like Spieles had all the right “special talents” required to be very successful politician…he just forgot the most important first rule: “Don’t get caught.”  

    Harrisonburg Votes

     

    The 19 applications of deceased citizens were submitted by Spieles through an organization called HarrisonburgVOTES. According to the organization’s “About Us” page, HarrisonburgVOTES is a “non-partisan” voter registration organization in Harrisonburg, VA and the surrounding areas.

    As the HarrisonburgVOTES webpage points out, the sole goal of the organization is to raise the number of registered voters in Harrisonburg to 25,000…though it’s unclear what percentage of that goal was intended to be filled by dead voters.

    The sole goal of HarrisonburgVOTES is to increase the number of registered voters in Harrisonburg and the surrounding areas to increase and encourage civic engagement.

     

    Harrisonburg has the lowest percentage of voting age population (VAP) registered to vote among Virginia localities. Very roughly, about 17,000 people are registered to vote and about 18,000 are voting age and not registered.  The goal of HarrisonburgVOTES will be to overcome these issues and raise the number of registered voters to 25,000.

    HarrisonburgVOTES was founded by Joseph Fitzgerald who, “shockingly”, is also a prominent democrat in Harrisonburg.   Fitzgerald is currently Chairman of the Sixth Congressional District Democratic Committee in Virginia and the former Mayor of Harrisonburg. 

    Harrisonburg Votes

     

    Fitzgerald told reporters, of course, that his organization had no knowledge of Spieles’s actions and fired him immediately after his confession.   

    “He’s smart, and he understands the [political] process,” Fitzgerald told the Daily News-Record of Spieles. “Who the hell knows what his motivations were?”

    While we agree it’s difficult to be 100% sure about anyone’s motivations, we would be willing to put money on it having something to do with registering a bunch of dead people and then having them all vote for Hillary in November….just a hunch.

  • Voting For Survival: The Election Story Of 2016

    Submitted by TJ Brown via The Foundation for Economic Education,

    Is it just me, or does this year appear to be the most pessimistic election season ever? Typically during presidential elections, you notice people’s optimism as they extol their preferred political candidate. This year, however, not so much.

    Which Poison Is the Least Potent?

    Of course there are plenty within each political party who support their party's nominee. But the mainstream vibe I’ve been getting is mixed. Most people aren’t cheering campaign slogans of Hope & Change. Most people aren’t enthusiastic about the future they’re being promised by their elected representatives.

    There is a sense of betrayal held by supporters of the Bernie Revolution, which promised to oppose corporate corruption in politics, only to endorse the person who is possibly the most cronyistic political candidate Washington has to offer.

    The rebranding of social media hashtags such as #ImWithHer to #IGuessImWithHer exemplifies dispirited submission, rather than positive momentum. Ask a Hillary voter why they’re supporting Hillary, and chances are it’s not because of her policies or her personality. It’s because they are disgusted by and terrified of the opposing candidate, Donald Trump.

    It is the same with Trump’s base. Many are supporting him solely because they feel threatened by a Hillary Clinton presidency. They fear her quasi-socialist economic plans, her hawkish history on foreign policy, and her disregard of the second amendment.

    And even third party candidates feel the same. I’ve often said that much of Gary Johnson’s momentum is not due to his charisma or ideas, but more because many people have equal disdain for both Trump and Hillary, who in many ways are ideologically interchangeable.

    The voice of the American people is so disenfranchised that people are no longer voting based on the desires they want their government to satisfy. Rather, they’re voting based on the least negative inevitable effect the new administration will have on their life.

    There is an upside to this. Even a cause for hope.

    How Did We Get to This Point?

    As with any monster, as government grows, it becomes more threatening and uncontrollable. The democratic process, once used to proactively control the state’s power, has now transformed into a tool of defensive opposition to the threat that same state now poses to our liberty and happiness.

    Some people will claim that this reckless condition of government overreach is due to greedy interests, bad leaders, and bad laws. But the truth is, this beast we find ourselves fighting is of our own creation. It is government created by the people, of the people, but not for the people.

    The pessimism of voters today needs to become optimism about what can be done once the force of rule relinquishes its control.

    Public policy has become exploitation by self-interested citizens looking to control their fellow man via regulatory rule over individuals, markets, academia, and property. This, coupled with the intrinsic power of the state to place itself above the moral standards we hold ourselves to, is why this system exists. It’s not a broken system. It’s an abused system that has been dominated by authoritarian mendicants.

    The ruling class in government has dominated for so long that it has become exclusively pursuant of interests that contribute to its own benefit rather than the benefit of citizens.

    Whether this system will be salvageable remains to be seen, but one thing is abundantly clear: people are fearful of the future actions of their government. And so long as we continue to let it be dominated by power-hungry voters, no matter how altruistic or well-intentioned, the result we are currently woeful of will continue to manifest itself to an even more severe degree than Hillary vs Trump.

    That might at first appear a scary direction in which to travel. And yet there is hope. What is really dawning here is a new embrace of reality. Government has not worked to achieve what it promised to do. The pessimism of voters today needs to become optimism about what can be done once the force of rule relinquishes its control. We need a new confidence in what society can accomplish on its own.

    If the first step is a total loss of faith in political leaders, so be it, so long as it is accompanied by a renewed faith in the power of individuals and society to achieve greatness without being led by would-be central planners.

  • Russia Warns US Military "Aggression" In Syria Would Lead To "Terrible, Tectonic" Consequences

    As the drums of war beat louder, following last week’s ultimatum by John Kerry that the US is contemplating a direct military intervention in Syria, including potentially sending US troops on the ground in the war-torn country for the first time, on Saturday Russia warned the US against carrying out any attacks on Syrian government forces, saying it would have repercussions across the Middle East. The warning comes as government forces captured a hill on the edge of the northern city of Aleppo under the cover of airstrikes.

    It has been one year since Russia became officially involved in the Syria conflict. The maps below show zones controlled by different forces before Russian intervention in September 2015 and the situation now.

    The most obvious change is the collapse in territory controlled by ISIS, as well as the expansion of territories held by the Syrian regime, which is the biggest concern to the US, whose main directive in the Syrian conflict has been less to crush the Islamic State as to minimize the influence and territory of Assad’s regime, replacing it with US-controlled “rebel” forces.

    And with Russia – long an ally to Assad as the conflict is fundamentally about Gazprom’s loss of influence over Europe should a Qatari natgas pipelines cross under Syria  – having become the biggest hurdle to US strategy in Syria, there has been a notable shift in the US strategy, with western media slamming Russia’s “barbarous airstrikes“, focusing on recent bombing strikes of the rebel-held city of Aleppo, a repeat of US strategy from the summer of 2013 when a doctored “chemical attack” YouTube video was used to justify US presence in the local conflict.

    In response, Russian news agencies quoted Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova as saying that “U.S. aggression” against the Syrian army “will lead to terrible, tectonic consequences not only on the territory of this country but also in the region on the whole.

    She said regime change in Syria would create a vacuum that would be “quickly filled” by “terrorists of all stripes.”

    As AP notes, U.S.-Russian tensions over Syria have escalated since the breakdown of a cease-fire last month, with each side blaming the other for its failure. Syrian government forces backed by Russian warplanes have launched a major onslaught on rebel-held parts of the northern city of Aleppo. Syrian troops pushed ahead in their offensive in Aleppo on Saturday capturing the strategic Um al-Shuqeef hill near the Palestinian refugee camp of Handarat that government forces captured from rebels earlier this week, according to state TV. The hill is on the northern edge of the Aleppo, Syria’s largest city and former commercial center.

    The al Qaeda-linked Ahrar al-Sham militant group said rebels regained control Saturday of several positions they lost in Aleppo in the Bustan al-Basha neighborhood. State media said 13 people were wounded when rebels shelled the central government-held neighborhood of Midan.

    Adding to the propaganda, airstrikes on Aleppo struck a hospital in the eastern rebel-held neighborhood of Sakhour putting it out of service, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the same entity that created the infamous doctored 2013 YouTube video. 

    Opposition activist Ahmad Alkhatib described the hospital, known as M10, as one of the largest in Aleppo. He posted photographs on his Twitter account showing the damage including beds covered with dust, a hole in its roof and debris covering the street outside. A doctor at the hospital told the Aleppo Media Center, an activist collective, that thousands of people were treated in the compound in the past adding that two people were killed in Saturday’s airstrikes and several were wounded.

    “A real catastrophe will hit medical institutions in Aleppo if the direct shelling continues to target hospitals and clinics,” said the doctor whose name was not given. He said the whole hospital is out of service.

    In a familiar repeat of the 2013 media narrative, opposition activists have blamed the President Bashar Assad’s forces and Russia for airstrikes that hit Civil Defense units and clinics in the city where eastern rebel-held neighborhoods are besieged by government forces and pro-government militiamen.

    On Friday, the international medical humanitarian organization Doctors Without Borders demanded that the Syrian government and its allies “halt the indiscriminate bombing that has killed and wounded hundreds of civilians_many of them children,” over the past week in Aleppo. “Bombs are raining from Syria-led coalition planes and the whole of east Aleppo has become a giant kill box,” said Xisco Villalonga, director of operations for the group. “The Syrian government must stop the indiscriminate bombing, and Russia as an indispensable political and military ally of Syria has the responsibility to exert the pressure to stop this.”

    It said from Sept. 21 to 26, hospitals still functioning in Aleppo reported receiving more than 822 wounded, including at least 221 children, and more than 278 dead bodies_including 96 children_according to the Directorate of Health in east Aleppo.  Sweden’s Foreign Minister Margot Wallstrom criticized attacks on civilian targets writing on her Twitter account: “Unacceptable to bomb civilians, children and hospitals in #Aleppo. No humanity. Assad & Russia moving further away from peace.”

    Surprisingly, few if any in the western media have complained about the thousands of civilians killed by the US-backed Saudi bombing campaign in neighboring Yemen.

    * * *

    Meanwhile, according to leaked closed-door comments by US Secretary of State John Kerry it was revealed how angry John Kerry is about being unable to topple President Bashar Assad by military means.

    The New York Times previously acquired a taped conversation between the US
    Secretary of State and two dozen Syrian civilians from education,
    rescue, and medical groups working in rebel-held areas, during a meeting
    on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. “I’ve argued for use of force. I stood up. I’m the guy who stood up and announced we’re going to attack Assad because of the weapons, and then you know things evolved into a different process,” the Secretary of State said in the tape.

    He told the civilians that “you have nobody more frustrated than we are (the US)” that the Syrian issue is now being solved diplomatically. Kerry also warned the Syrians, who sounded clearly unhappy with Washington’s contribution, that attempts to intervene militarily or provide more support to the rebels by the US may have a reverse effect.

    “The problem is that, you know, you get, quote, ‘enforcers’ in there and then everybody ups the ante, right? Russia puts in more, Iran puts in more; Hezbollah is there more and Nusra is more; and Saudi Arabia and Turkey put all their surrogate money in, and you all are destroyed,” the diplomat explained.

    * * *

    We expect the Syrian proxy war to continue to escalate until either Assad is removed, which however seems unlikely with Russian, and now Chinese backing, behind the Syrian president, or until the proxy war escalates into a full blown world war once US troops are sent to Syria, a move which would be met by a proportional response by Russia and, perhaps, China.

  • German Mayor Beaten Unconscious After Announcing Plan To Accept Refugees

    Over the past several months, the German people have become increasingly frustrated with Merkel’s “open-border” policy that has allowed over 1mm migrants to flow into the country from the Middle East and North Africa.  The flood of migrants has brought with it a wave of violent crime including sexual assaults resulting in a rising nationalist tension as people have turned their backs on Merkel and her Christian Democratic Union party in recent elections.  

    The most recent example of backlash over the migrant crisis comes from the small German town of Oersdorf in Northern Germany.  The Mayor of Oersdorf, Joachim Kebschull (61), was recently beaten unconscious outside of the city’s Town Hall where the construction committee was meeting to discuss a new housing development for migrants.  The mayor was apparently struck with a club from behind as he stepped out the Town Hall building to get a laptop from his car. 

    German Mayo

     

    According to The Telegraph, just hours before the committee meeting Kebschull received a threatening letter saying:

    “He who will not listen will have to feel.” 

     

    “Oersdorf for Oersdorfers”

    According to DW, Kebschull had been receiving threats for months.  In fact, the committee meeting had already been postponed twice over bomb threats. 

    The controversy surrounded a local subsidized housing revitalization where the mayor wanted to offer apartments to asylum-seekers.  “If we could also offer a family of refugees a new home in our village, we would like to take this opportunity and make a small contribution to people who had to flee their homes,” the association said in a statement on its website.

    Kebschull is still in the hospital but is expected to make a full recovery.

     

    The attack occurred in the small North German city of Oersdorf just north of Hamburg.  Oersdorf has less than 900 residents.

    Hamburg

     

    “We cancan’t do this?”

  • Minnesota Commissioner Slams Obamacare As "Unfair & Unsustainable" As Rates Soar

    Soaring Obamacare premiums and declining insurer participation rates in exchanges across the country have been a frequent topic of conversation for us (see “Obamacare On “Verge Of Collapse” As Premiums Set To Soar Again In 2017” and “Stunning Maps Depict Collapse Of Obamacare “Coverage” In 2017“).  So it should come as no surprise to our readers that Minnesota has just announced that 2017 Obamacare rates have been set and are expected to soar nearly 60% on average. 

    Minnesota Commerce Commissioner Mike Rothman posted a letter to the state’s website saying that the state succeeded in preserving the exchanges for one more year by agreeing to massive rate hikes but warned they are on the “verge of collapse.”  The letter goes on to describe Minnesota’s healthcare rate environment as “unsustainable and unfair” and notes that “middle-class Minnesotans” are being “crushed by the heavy burden of these costs.”

    ”Last year at this time when rates were announced, I said there was a serious need for reform in Minnesota’s individual market,” said Rothman. “This year the need for reform is now without any doubt even more serious and urgent.”

     

    He highlighted Governor Mark Dayton’s recent decision to reconvene his Task Force on Health Care Financing to make recommendations to ensure that Minnesota consumers have access to affordable, high-quality health insurance options in the individual market.

     

    “While federal tax credits will help make monthly premiums more affordable for many Minnesotans, these rising insurance rates are both unsustainable and unfair,” said Rothman. “Middle-class Minnesotans in particular are being crushed by the heavy burden of these costs. There is a clear and urgent need for reform to protect Minnesota consumers who purchase their own health insurance.”

     

    Rothman said the reconvened Task Force on Health Care Financing should consider any and all feasible reforms. Above all, he said, it should offer recommendations that can be implemented in the next year to improve market stability and rates for 2018.

     

    “We received over 50 public comments from Minnesotans as part of our rate review,” said Rothman. “I personally read each one. They told heartbreaking stories about how hard-working families are struggling with very tough, painful choices because of these skyrocketing costs. They say that health insurance is unaffordable, and they’re right. This calls for immediate reforms as everyone’s top priority.”

    Rate increases ranges from 50% – 67% across Minnesota.

    Obmacare

    But rates aren’t the only issue.  Most of the insurers participating in Minnesota’s individual market also plan to limit enrollment, to avoid taking on too many customers from other insurers that have pulled out of the exchanges all together. 

    However, Minnesota’s individual market also faces unique challenges because of a disproportionate concentration of individuals with serious medical conditions whose high claims costs must be absorbed by a relatively small risk pool, pushing up rates for everyone in the individual market.

     

    Citing ongoing financial losses, Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Minnesota announced in late June that it is leaving the individual market, except for its Blue Plus HMO affiliate. The company’s decision affects approximately 103,000 Minnesotans, or about 40 percent of the state’s total individual market.

     

    Rothman said that, following Blue Cross’s announcement, Minnesota’s individual market for 2017 was on the verge of collapse as all of the other insurers indicated that they were also prepared to exit this market.

     

    “The Commerce Department pursued every option within its power to avert a collapse this year,” said Rothman. “We succeeded in saving the market for 2017, with only Blue Cross leaving. But the rates insurers are charging will increase significantly to address their expected costs and the loss of federal reinsurance support. In addition, each insurer except for Blue Plus will limit its total 2017 enrollment to manage its financial or provider network capacity to absorb the many current Blue Cross consumers who will be shopping for new plans.”

     

    Obamacare

     

    Meanwhile, per Bloomberg, Jonathan Gold, a spokesman for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, peddled the same ole fiction that “headline rate changes do not reflect what these consumers actually pay because tax credits reduce the cost of coverage below the sticker price”…which is true for everyone except the overwhelming majority of people that don’t receive subsidies.

    Guess we have to add Minnesota’s Insurance Commissioner to Obama’s every growing list of “fiction peddlers.”

     

  • Today's Federal Reserve Makes Volcker Look Timid

    Submitted by John Mauldin via MauldinEconomics.com,

    Let’s look at the Fed’s (and other central banks’) magnitude of monetary manipulation in recent years and the very constrained maneuvering room they now have as a consequence.

    Of course, it’s questionable whether they should even be trying to maneuver the economy to the degree that they are. The current problem is a direct result of mistakes made during and after the last financial crisis.

    Two Charts: Bernanke Was More Extreme Than Volcker

    Here’s a long-term chart of the federal funds rate, the Fed’s main policy tool:

    The gray vertical bars represent recessions. You can see how the Fed has historically dropped rates in response to recessions and then tightened again when those recessions ended. I red-circled the drastic loosening and retightening under Paul Volcker in the early 1980s and Ben Bernanke’s cuts to near-zero in 2008.

    To this day, the Volcker rate hikes are legendary. No Fed chair has ever done anything like that—before or since. You hear it all the time.

    Problem: it’s not true.

    Here’s the same chart again. This time with a log scale on the vertical axis. This adjusts the rate changes to be proportionate with percentage rises and falls. The percentage change between 5% and 10% is the same as between 10% and 20%, since both represent a doubling of the lower number.

     

    Looking at it this way, the Volcker hikes are tame.

    But the Bernanke cuts dwarf all other interest rate changes since 1955. Nothing else is even close.

    Bernanke’s rate cuts were far, far more aggressive than Volcker’s rate hikes.

    Why did Bernanke—et al.—cut rates to zero? Because moving rates up and down was all they knew to do.

    The Fed Is Scared of Wall Street

    Moving rates had always worked before. If it wasn’t working this time, the Bernanke-led Fed figured more of the same should do the trick. And it might have worked for a year or two. After that, though, the Fed was so scared of a negative stock market reaction that they kept rates artificially low for eight years.

    Long-term low rates have decimated fixed-income returns of pension funds and retirement plans for the middle class.

    Central banks all over the world did the same—and more. The suffering caused by this bone-headed policy has intensified for all these years. You may not be suffering yourself, but I bet someone close to you is. And I guarantee you that your retirement funds have suffered.

    Now, the supposedly humming economy is going to suffer another recession in the not-too-distant future. What then?

    The Fed Is Ready to Go Negative

    For lack of anything else, the Fed is preparing to send interest rates below zero. That was clearly the message from Jackson Hole.

    How in Hades did we get to a place where negative rates were considered a good idea? One of the most stupid ideas ever cooked up in academia is now seen as rational and globally applicable.

    What should we do? There are not many options. There is no magic wand to get us to normal. If there were, I’m pretty sure the Federal Reserve would wave it at once, because I think everybody realizes that rates should already have been normalized—and that to do so now is going to be problematic.

    We really have come to a place where there are no good choices.

    *  *  *

    Follow Mauldin as he uncovers the truth behind, and beyond, the financial headlines in his free publication, Thoughts from the Frontline. The publication explores developments overlooked by mainstream news and analyzes challenges and opportunities on the horizon.

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Today’s News 1st October 2016

  • Meet The Young Virginia Democrat That Registered 19 Dead People To Vote In Virginia

    Just yesterday we wrote about an FBI investigation into potential voter fraud in the critical swing state of Virginia after it was revealed that 19 dead people had recently been re-registered to vote (see “FBI Investigating More Dead People Voting In The Key Swing State Of Virginia“).  While the Washington Post caught wind of the investigation, it was not known who was behind the operation…until now.  

    Meet, Andrew Spieles, a student at James Madison University, and apparently “Lead Organizer” for HarrisonburgVOTES.  According to the Daily News-Record, Spieles confessed to re-registering 19 deceased Virginians to vote in the 2016 election cycle

    While this should come as a surprise to precisely 0 people, Spieles just happens to be Democrat who, accorded to a deleted FaceBook post, apparently recently ran for Caucus Chair of the Virginia Young Democrats. 

    It’s too bad really, sounds like Spieles had all the right “special talents” required to be very successful politician…he just forgot the most important first rule: “Don’t get caught.”  

    Harrisonburg Votes

     

    The 19 applications of deceased citizens were submitted by Spieles through an organization called HarrisonburgVOTES. According to the organization’s “About Us” page, HarrisonburgVOTES is a “non-partisan” voter registration organization in Harrisonburg, VA and the surrounding areas.

    As the HarrisonburgVOTES webpage points out, the sole goal of the organization is to raise the number of registered voters in Harrisonburg to 25,000…though it’s unclear what percentage of that goal was intended to be filled by dead voters.

    The sole goal of HarrisonburgVOTES is to increase the number of registered voters in Harrisonburg and the surrounding areas to increase and encourage civic engagement.

     

    Harrisonburg has the lowest percentage of voting age population (VAP) registered to vote among Virginia localities. Very roughly, about 17,000 people are registered to vote and about 18,000 are voting age and not registered.  The goal of HarrisonburgVOTES will be to overcome these issues and raise the number of registered voters to 25,000.

    HarrisonburgVOTES was founded by Joseph Fitzgerald who, “shockingly”, is also a prominent democrat in Harrisonburg.   Fitzgerald is currently Chairman of the Sixth Congressional District Democratic Committee in Virginia and the former Mayor of Harrisonburg. 

    Harrisonburg Votes

     

    Fitzgerald told reporters, of course, that his organization had no knowledge of Spieles’s actions and fired him immediately after his confession.   

    “He’s smart, and he understands the [political] process,” Fitzgerald told the Daily News-Record of Spieles. “Who the hell knows what his motivations were?”

    While we agree it’s difficult to be 100% sure about anyone’s motivations, we would be willing to put money on it having something to do with registering a bunch of dead people and then having them all vote for Hillary in November….just a hunch.

  • After the Debate, the Deluge? (Now With A Trigger Warning)

    Submitted by David Galland via GarretGalland.com,

    Trigger Warning: The following article includes an abundance of insults and harsh words directed at individuals of both of the male and female sex as well as politically incorrect statements including digs at cross-dressers and people worried about the weather. If you feel “triggered” by any of the statements, please see a psychiatrist.

    ****  ****  *****

    Dear Debate-Watchers,

    “I guess he is a buffoon after all. Too bad.”

    Those words were written by a dear friend and, until the lights went out on the first presidential debate, the most ardent of Trump supporters.

    For the debate, a group of us had gathered at the Social Club at La Estancia de Cafayate here in the Argentine outback.

    Most of our group were expats who, yearning to be free, have voted with our feet. Therefore, not indicative of broader US demographics.

    It’s safe to say the audience was hopeful that Trump would wipe the proverbial floor with Mrs. Clinton. Within a few minutes, however, it became apparent it was not The Donald holding the mop handle.

    If proof was ever needed that Hillary is a skilled politician, the debate provided it. She speaks in complete sentences, adroitly dodges sticky questions, and wields the rhetorical knife like a Colombian sicario.

    Of course, Hillary had help. It often seemed as if the moderator had sat in on Hillary’s debate preparation, studiously taking notes as her team made helpful suggestions on questions he could use to blindside Trump or topics to be quickly passed over should they arise. Topics such as war-starting and email-server emptying.

    But the moderator’s lack of impartiality ultimately didn’t matter, because, to the great detriment of the American Dream, The Donald could hardly string together a single coherent thought. Trump huffed and puffed—and oddly, sniffed—but in the end couldn’t have blown out a paper match.

    When he did make an understandable point, as often as not, I disagreed. For instance, it seems like he’s advocating imposing a fresh round of trade tariffs, something that history has proven time and again to be a bucket of cold water over the free flow of goods and services. And he appears to favor using US military muscle to “take the oil” of Middle Eastern countries.

    So, here we are.

    And by “here,” I mean on the verge of electing the ultimate statist and an unindicted conspirator in too many shady deals to list here.

     

    The Real Problem

    As mentioned last week, this month’s edition of Compelling Investments Quantified, released yesterday, leads off with a fairly deep dive into the regulatory morass gunking up the workings of the US and global economies.

    To give you the smallest sense of the situation, the graphic below shows the stunning increase in regulation under Obama.

    As you can see, the biggest new burden foisted on the economy is an aggressive ramping up of the Environmental Protection Agency, Grand Inquisitors of the Holy Church of Weather Worriers.

    While I have long held the attitude that anyone wanting to be a politician is possessed of serious character flaws, I confess to caring about Trump winning the debate and, more to the point, prevailing in the November election.

    My reasons were not that he is a man of stellar character with a firm grasp on the issues, but rather because it is clear from his many public actions that he is not a politician in the conventional sense.

    Therefore, the Pollyannaish side of me hoped that, upon taking office, he would stop providing water and nutrients to the growing bureaucracy that is literally destroying the US economy, as well as the very idea of America.

    And by the latter, I mean a corner of the Earth where private property rights are respected and where everyone has a decent shot at attaining whatever it is they deem to be success.

    You know, the America where rugged individuals are considered archetypical.

    Instead, the American entrepreneur is forced to struggle through a minefield of politically correct landmines and hundreds of thousands of pages of laws and regulations.

    Should he or she succeed financially, the government celebrates such success with progressively punitive taxes.

    As a symbol of the New American, I would nominate campus Safe Spaces, such as the one promoted on the sign shown here, from the hallway at Hofstra University where the presidential debate was held.

    I will now briefly pause, dear readers, to let out a string of loud and very politically incorrect expletives.

    That out of the way, and falling in line with what it means to be an American in this day and age, I must confess to feeling “triggered” by the implications of Trump’s debate pratfall.

    After the Debate, the Deluge?

    During the debate, Mrs. Clinton made it clear that—rather than reversing the tide of regulation and taxation, prerequisites to getting the US economy off the blocks—she is going to double down.

    Starting by ensuring that those individuals whose energetic pursuit of success has resulted in them earning above-average incomes are forced by the state to “pay their fair share.”

    We all know how unfair that statement is, given that the top 1% of income earners already pay about half of all income taxes, while the bottom 80% pay just 20% of the total. And a very large percentage of that total pay no taxes at all.

    Mrs. Clinton is aware of these facts, but fairness and facts have no role to play in Progressive America. The only thing that counts is how the narrative plays with the rubes.

    Will she be worse than Obama in terms of regulations and implementing punitive taxes? Based on her history and stump speeches, the Magic 8 ball points to “YES.”

    The following quote is from a Clinton-fawning article in the Huffington Post, entitled, “The Future of America Is Being Written in This Tiny Office.”

    “…Clinton’s plans are as unambiguously progressive as any from a Democratic nominee in modern history—and almost nobody seems to have noticed.”

    Among those plans are free college for the 50% or so of Americans who are already not paying any taxes; subsidies so no one has to pay more than 10% of their income on child care; guaranteed paid family leave; new layers of special treatment for non-whites and non-heterosexuals; new regulations to help unions regain their bargaining power and even, in her own words, to “rewrite the rules” on capitalism.

    And so, at the very point in time when the US desperately needs to cut away the bureaucratic Kudzu holding back capitalism, the country is falling into the hands of a socialist sociopath who views the state as a hammer to be unhesitantly used to beat society flat.

    In addition to higher taxes for those on the wrong side of the income divide, and more handouts for those on the right side, I think we can correctly anticipate some other consequences of Zer election as La Presidenta, many of which will have implications for investment markets:

    • Bank bashing. Mrs. Clinton has promised, when elected, to burden the banks with even more regulations. Coming on top of the massive Dodd-Frank bill, the flow of bank funds, which in a healthy economy provides upwards of 90% of total money supply (M4), will continue to remain frozen.
    • Dastardly deeds done to dirty energy. Oil, gas, nuclear, and in particular coal—are going to come under even greater pressure. Fracking is going to get fracked.
    • Obamacare is dead, long live Hillarycare. Make no mistake, Hillary and her brain trust will set about “fixing” Obamacare by adding yet more bureaucracy. Universal healthcare was her pet project back in the day. She is plenty peeved Obama pulled off his version of it and so will go to great lengths to make it her own again.
    • Political correctness on steroids. The morning after she is sworn in, Hillary will get to work pandering to the miscellany of special interest groups to win a second term. With George Soros on her arm and supported at every turn by the not-so-invisible hand of Silicon Valley, she’ll find ways to assure Black Lives Matter in every way they think they should matter. Ditto, the Hispanic populations and every other non-white male demographic, especially Bernie’s Millennials, who will be a far bigger factor in the next election than they are in this one.
    • An economic circus, but not of the funny sort. The US economy—and most of the world’s largest economies—have suffered extensively at the hands of government bureaucrats who, through ignorance or deliberate malfeasance, have burdened it with regulations to the point of breaking.

      However, given that Clinton will have grand plans to make her tenure historically significant for something more than possessing a womb, you can expect a tidal wave of new regulation designed to create a more perfect world.

      As the new wave of regulations will threaten to kill the already gagging golden goose, the Clinton administration will need to get very creative to keep the deficits from running amok.

      I can’t even begin to guess how, but literally anything that can be imagined is on the table. Wage and price controls, higher estate taxes, big penalties for companies with assets overseas (unless, of course, her hubby is on the board), confiscating foreign-held assets… really, anything is fair game.

    • Prosperity on hold. Most importantly, instead of turning back toward the light, a Clinton victory ensures that the current economic stagnation and the attendant societal tensions will only worsen. Rig for a long dark night and for the deluge that is all but certain.

    While the blame for the precarious situation the US finds itself in could justly be placed at the feet of any number of players, and extends well back in history, at the risk of angering some dear readers, in terms of the here and now, I choose to throw a razzberry in the direction of Donald Trump.

    That’s because he arrogantly failed to properly prepare for the debate. As a consequence, he walked into one sucker punch after another and, when smacked, had no snappy retorts prepared to steer the debate back to themes less flattering to his opponent.

    By failing to prepare, he let down the millions of people who had allowed themselves to become reengaged in the political process and who dared hope the cultural Marxism overrunning the nation could be slowed.

    Of course, there is another possible explanation for Trump’s performance. Maybe he did prepare rigorously for the debate—and according to his campaign co-chair, he did—in which case, could his dismal performance be a sign that, per my friend’s assessment, he actually is a buffoon? Or, as they say in Texas, he’s all hat and no cows.

    Regardless, his dismal showing has fully exposed the tender belly of what was left of the American dream, granting a big opening for the progressives to move in for the kill.

    Game Over?

    Given the debate disaster, is it game over for Trump and, by extension, America?

    It’s impossible to say. On the one hand, demoralized as Trump’s supporters may be, the idea of President Hillary is probably enough to get them off their couches come election day.

    In fact, much to my surprise, following the debate, Trump’s fundraising efforts soared. And while I have heard from many Trump supporters who share my assessment of his debate performance, every one of them appears to remain committed to their candidate come election day.

    However, as far as independents go, I think his performance may have poisoned that well for good.

    At the end of the day, it will all come down to turnout. Whereas prior to the debate, Hillary couldn’t get any respect, I don’t think anyone who watched could deny that she appeared more presidential.

    Condescending? Arrogant? Slippery? Absolutely.

    But at least she was coherent.

    I cannot tell you how it pains me to write these words, because I tend toward optimism in my life. Despite having removed our family from ground zero, I had hoped the driving force behind Trump’s near miraculous candidacy—an up-swelling of popular anger at the poor condition the bureaucrats have left the country in—heralded a step back toward the path of sanity for the United States.

    Maybe Trump just had a really bad day and will do well enough in what’s left of the campaign season to prevail. And maybe, if elected, he’ll surround himself with smart people and then wander off to the nearest golf course like his predecessor.

    At this point, given the choice between the anti-capitalist crook and the big unknown that is Donald Trump, I would still have to pull the lever for Trump and hope for the best.

    However, after the dismal debate, the future has just gotten a lot more unpredictable.

  • In Hacked Fundraiser Recording, Hillary Mocks Bernie Supporters "Living In Their Parents’ Basement"

    The reason why the Trump campaign has been so eager to find transcripts and recordings of the private speeches Hillary Clinton has delivered during her extensive, lucrative speaking career, is because it is there that she reveals that rare glimpse into what she truly thinks, or at least what $250,000 per hour will get her to believe. One such example is a recently hacked recording of Hillary Clinton, where in a private conversation with campaign donors in February, Clinton distanced herself from progressive goals like “free college, free healthcare” and described her place on the political spectrum as spanning from the center-left to the center-right.

    The newly disclosed comments first noticed by the Intercept, came in audio from hacked emails revealed this week by the Washington Free Beacon. Clinton was speaking at a Virginia fundraiser hosted by Beatrice Welters, the former U.S. ambassador to Trinidad and Tobago, and her husband Anthony Welters, the executive chairman of an investment consulting firm founded by former Clinton aid Cheryl Mills.

    The hacked audio provides another peek into the ideological chameleon that Hillary is on a day to day basis. As the Intercept notes, “Clinton has been inconsistent in the past about espousing political labels. She has at times touted herself as stalwart liberal. For instance, she said last July: “I take a backseat to no one when you look at my record in standing up and fighting for progressive values.” But a few months later, she told a group in Ohio: “You know, I get accused of being kind of moderate and center. I plead guilty.”

    In one segment of the leaked audio, Hillary focused on her opponent at the time, Bernie Sanders, was pointed to successful programs in Scandinavia which provide universal daycare, family leave, and government sponsored healthcare and college education, as policies that he would seek to adopt. “Progressive” Hillary mocked the compared idea of “free college, free healthcare” to the “extreme” ideas promulgated by the right, which include “populism, nationalism and xenophobia.”

    It is important to recognize what’s going on in this election. Everybody who’s ever been in an election that I’m aware of is quite bewildered because there is a strain of, on the one hand, the kind of populist, nationalist, xenophobic, discriminatory kind of approach that we hear too much of from the Republican candidates. And on the other side, there’s just a deep desire to believe that we can have free college, free healthcare, that what we’ve done hasn’t gone far enough, and that we just need to, you know,  go as far as, you know, Scandinavia, whatever that means, and half the people don’t know what that means, but it’s something that they deeply feel. So as a friend of mine said the other day, I am occupying from the center-left to the center-right. And I don’t have much company there. Because it is difficult when you’re running to be president, and you understand how hard the job is —  I don’t want to overpromise. I don’t want to tell people things that I know we cannot do.

    Recording below::

     

    Clinton then went on to explain why she felt so many Democratic voters, many of whom “live in their parents’ basement” were gravitating to Sanders. Ironically, for a presidential candidate that touts the economic recovery the US is going through, she admits these “children of the Great Recession” don’t see much of a future…

    Some are new to politics completely. They’re children of the Great Recession. And they are living in their parents’ basement. They feel they got their education and the jobs that are available to them are not at all what they envisioned for themselves. And they don’t see much of a future.

    … and with an entire generation unexpectedly finding itself in a dead-end economy, it provides a perfect incubator for what according to Hillary is an army of Bernie supporters: “if you’re feeling like you’re consigned to, you know, being a barista… then the idea that maybe, just maybe, you could be part of a political revolution is pretty appealing.”

    I met with a group of young black millennials today and you know one of the young women said, “You know, none of us feel that we have the job that we should have gotten out of college. And we don’t believe the job market is going to give us much of a chance.” So that is a mindset that is really affecting their politics. And so if you’re feeling like you’re consigned to, you know, being a barista, or you know, some other job that doesn’t pay a lot, and doesn’t have some other ladder of opportunity attached to it, then the idea that maybe, just maybe, you could be part of a political revolution is pretty appealing

    One wonders whose fault it is that millions of young people are stuck in dead end jobs, living in their parents basement, while both Obama and Hillary make TV appearances touting the strength of the economic recovery.

    But the punchline was what Hillary, who has been scrambling to secure the much-needed Millennial vote in recent weeks, truly thought about about the millions of young people whose vote she is trying to win: a diatribe of mockery, in which she describes the concept of a political revolution as a “false promise” which has attracted all these disillusioned and disheartened young people “living in their parents’ basement.” Does Hillary have anything to offer them? No, but she desperately needs their vote, even if behind the scenes at generously paid private functions, she mocks them in front of all those present.

    We should all be really understanding of that and should try to do the best we can not to be, you know, a wet blanket on idealism. We want people to be idealistic. We want them to set big goals… But those of us who understand this, who’ve worked in it know that it’s a false promise. But I don’t think you tell idealistic people, particularly young people that they’ve bought into a false promise.

    Especially when you are trying to secure their votes?

    Then again, considering the eagerness with which Bernie Sanders has endorsed Wall Street’s favorite candidate, it is quite clear that the real “false promise” here was Sanders’ “revolution” all along.  We wonder if in light of this hack, if Bernie Sanders would care to make some statement why he is endosing the candidate who behind closed doors, openly mocks everything that his supporters believe in.

    Clinton has been accused numerous times in the past of patronizing young Sanders supporters. On Meet The Press in April, Clinton said she said “I feel sorry sometimes for the young people” who believe Sanders’s claims about her taking money from the fossil fuel industry.

    During her remarks, she reiterated her belief that politics is the art of the possible, dismissing the more aspirational approach of Sanders and his supporters. “I want to be very clear about the progress I think we can make,” she said. There was no discussion of her view that the ideology of millions of progressive, young people is a false promise.

    And while America’s young voters will be given an opportunity to respond to Hillary in just over 5 weeks time, one wonders what, in a world where Donald Trump’s every word is brutally attacked by the pro-Clinton media. would emerge if even a handful of Hillary’s Wall Street speech transcripts were the finally emerge.

  • A Furious Rick Santelli Rages At Janet's Jawboning: "Please, Don't Help Anymore"

    CNBC’s Rick Santelli turned it up to ’11’ today as The Fed’s Janet Yellen joined the world’s central planners in suggesting intervention directly in the stock markets would ‘help’ the average joe.

    Santelli exclaims “don’t help anymore!!” How has any of their ‘help’ helped in the last 7 years?

     

    “Central banks buying in the [stock] market… you really think that’s a good idea?” Raging about picking winners, buying Deutsche Bank, and keeping stocks “steady” around elections, the veteran pit trader exploded, “is that the world we really want to live in?”

     

    The Fed’s buying stocks “will completely and utterly and in every possible way destroy and value in the marketplace…”

    3 minutes of brutal reality slapped into the face of a ridiculous rumor-driven day…

  • "Message Sent?" – Russia, China Release Stunning Panoramic Video Of Naval Drills

    Helicopters and warships dominated the South China Sea, as Russia and China continued their joint eight-day naval exercises, dubbed Joint Sea 2016.

    A total of 18 ships and supply vessels, 21 aircraft and over 250 service personnel took part in the Joint Sea 2016 naval drills on September 12-19 in the South China Sea.

    Does this look like Russia and China are sending a message?

    h/t The Burning Platform

  • The Complete A To Z Of Nations Destroyed By Hillary Clinton's "Hubris"

    Submitted by Wayne Madsen via infowars.com

    In an email sent to his business partner and Democratic fundraiser Jeffrey Leeds, former Secretary of State Colin Powell wrote of Hillary Clinton, “Everything HRC touches she kind of screws up with hubris.”

    Clinton’s tenure as Secretary of State during Barack Obama’s first term was an unmitigated disaster for many nations around the world. Neither the Donald Trump campaign nor the corporate media have adequately described how a number of countries around the world suffered horribly from Mrs. Clinton’s foreign policy decisions.

    Millions of people were adversely harmed by Clinton’s misguided policies and her “pay-to-play” operations involving favors in return for donations to the Clinton Foundation and Clinton Global Initiative.

    The following is a before and after recap, country by country, of the destabilizing effects of Clinton’s policies as Secretary of State:

    Abkhazia

    Before Hillary: In 2009, more and more nations began recognizing the independence of this nation that broke away from Georgia and successfully repelled a U.S.-supported Georgian invasion in 2008.

    After Hillary: Clinton pressured Vanuatu and Tuvalu to break off diplomatic relations with Abkhazia in 2011. The State Department pressured the governments of India, Germany, and Spain to refuse to recognize the validity of Abkhazian passports and, in violation of the US-UN Treaty, refused to permit Abkhazian diplomats to visit UN headquarters in New York. The Clinton State Department also threatened San Marino, Belarus, Ecuador, Bolivia, Cuba, Somalia, Uzbekistan, and Peru with recriminations if they recognized Abkhazia. Georgia was connected to Clinton through the representation of Georgia in Washington by the Podesta Group, headed by Tony Podesta, the brother of Mrs. Clinton’s close friend and current campaign chairman John Podesta.

    Argentina

    Before Hillary: Under President Nestor Kirchner and his wife Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, Argentina’s economy improved and the working class and students prospered.

    After Hillary: After former president Nestor Kirchner’s sudden death in 2010, the U.S. embassy in Buenos Aires became a nexus for anti-Kirchner activities, including the fomenting of political and labor protests against the government. Meanwhile, Clinton pressed Argentina hard on its debt obligations to the IMF, also crippling the economy.

    Bolivia

    Before Hillary: Bolivia’s progressive president Evo Morales, the country’s first indigenous Aymara leader, provided government support to the country’s coca farmers and miners. Morales also committed his government to environmental protection. He kept his country out of the Free Trade Area of the Americas and helped start the Peoples’ Trade Agreement with Venezuela and Cuba.

    After Hillary: Clinton permitted the U.S. embassy in La Paz to stir up separatist revolts in four mostly European-descent Bolivian provinces, as well as foment labor strikes among miners and other workers in the same model used in Venezuela.

    Brazil

    Before Hillary: Brazil’s progressive presidents, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Dilma Rousseff, ushered in a new era for the country, with workers’ and students' rights at the forefront and environmental protection and economic development for the poor major priorities.

    After Hillary: Clinton’s authorization of massive electronic spying from the US embassy in Brasilia and consulate general in Rio de Janeiro resulted in a “constitutional coup” against Rousseff and the Workers’ Party government, ushering in a right-wing, CIA-supported corrupt government.

    Central African Republic

    Before Hillary: Under President Francois Bozize, the CAR remained relatively calm under a peace agreement hammered out under the auspices of Muammar Qaddafi’s Libya.

    After Hillary: In 2012, Islamist terrorists of the Seleka movement and supported by Saudi Arabia conducted an uprising, massacring Christians and riving Bozize’s government from power. The CAR became a failed state under Clinton’s State Department.

    Ecuador

    Before Hillary: Ecuador began sharing its oil wealth with the people and the economy and the plight of the nation’s poor improved.

    After Hillary: Clinton authorized a 2010 National Police coup against President Rafael Correa. The economy soon plunged as labor disputes wracked the mining and oil sectors.

    Egypt

    Before Hillary: Under Hosni Mubarak, Egypt was a stable secular nation that suppressed jihadist politics in the mosques. The jihadist-oriented Muslim Brotherhood was kept at bay.

    After Hillary: After Clinton’s 2011 “Arab Spring” and the toppling of Mubarak, Egypt saw Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood elected president. Immediately, the secular country began a process of Islamization with Christian Copts experiencing repression and violence, including massacres. Morsi’s rule resulted in a military coup, thus ending Egypt’s previous moves toward democracy.

    Germany

    Before Hillary: The nation was a peaceful country where German culture, as well as religious freedom and women’s rights were guaranteed.

    After Hillary: Clinton’s “Arab Spring” eventually resulted in a flood of mainly Muslim refugees being welcomed into Germany from the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia. Today, Germany is wracked by Muslim refugee street crime, unsanitary and harmful public health habits of migrants, sexual assaults by migrant men of women and children, increased acts of terrorism, and a diminution of German culture and religious practices.

    Greece

    Before Hillary: Greece was a nation that saw government safety net social services extended to all in need. It also remained a top tourist destination for northern Europeans.

    After Hillary: The 2010 debt crisis emaciated the Greek economy and Clinton remained adamant that Greece comply with draconian economic measures dictated by Germany, the European Union, and the IMF/World Bank. Making matters worse, Clinton’s “Arab Spring” eventually resulted in a flood of mainly Muslim refugees being welcomed into first, the Greek isles, and then mainland Greece, from the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia. Today, Greece, especially the islands of Lesbos, Chios, Samos, Symi, Rhodes, Leros, and Kos, are wracked by Muslim refugee crime, unsanitary public health habits of migrants, sexual assaults by migrant men of women and children, acts of arson and vandalism, and a diminution of Greek culture and religious practices.

    Guatemala

    Before Hillary: Under President Alvaro Colom, the nation’s first populist progressive president, the poor received access to health, education, and social security.

    After Hillary: Clinton authorized the U.S. embassy in Guatemala to work against the 2011 election of president Colom’s wife, Sandra Torres. Colom was succeeded by a right-wing corrupt president who resigned for corruption and then was arrested.

    Haiti

    Before Hillary: Haiti was prepared in 2011 to re-elect Jean-Bertrand Aristide, forced out of office and into exile in a 2004 CIA coup. The prospects of Artistide’s return to power was a blessing for the slum dwellers of Haiti.

    After Hillary: Clinton refused to allow Aristide to return to Haiti from exile in South Africa until it was too late for him to run in the 2011 election. Under a series of U.S.-installed presidents, all approved by Bill and Hillary Clinton, Haiti is a virtual cash cow for the Clintons. The Clinton Foundation diverted for its own use, international aid to Haiti, and the Clintons ensured that their wealthy friends in the hotel, textile, and construction businesses landed lucrative contracts for Haitian projects, none of which have benefited the Haitian poor and many of which resulted in sweat shops and extremely low wage labor practices.

    Honduras

    Before Hillary: Emergent multi-party democracy with a populist progressive president, Manuel Zelaya. Children received free education, poor children received free school meals, interest rates were reduced, and the poorest families were given free electricity.

    After Hillary: Clinton authorized a military coup d’etat against Zelaya in 2009. Clinton family “fix-it” man Lanny Davis became a public relations flack for the military dictatorship. A fascist dictatorship involved in extrajudicial death squad killings of journalists, politicians, and indigenous leaders followed the “constitutional coup” against Zelaya. During 2012, Clinton ordered U.S. embassy in Tegucigalpa to work against the 2013 election of Xiomara Castro de Zelaya as president.

    Iraq

    Before Hillary: Under Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, Iraq experienced small moves toward an accommodation with the Kurds of the north and Sunnis. Iran acted as a moderating political force in the country that deterred any attempts by Saudi-supported jihadis to disrupt the central government in Baghdad.

    After Hillary: Clinton’s Arab Spring resulted in the rise of the Sunni/Wahhabist Islamic State in northern and western Iraq and Iraq’s plunge into failed state status. Shi’as, Kurds, Yazidis, Assyrian Christians, and moderate Sunnis were massacred by the jihadis in northern, western, and central Iraq. The Iraqi cities of Mosul, Kirkuk, and Nineveh fell to ISIL forces with non-Muslims being raped, tortured, and executed and priceless antiquities being destroyed by the marauding jihadists.

    Kosovo

    Before Hillary: Kosovo, which became independent in 2008, initially granted its Serbian minority in northern Kosovo and Metohija some degree of self-government.

    After Hillary: In 2009, Kosovo increasingly became a state ruled by criminal syndicates and terrorists of the former Kosovo Liberation Army. The rights of Serbs were increasingly marginalized and Kosovo became a prime recruiting ground for jihadist guerrillas in Arab countries subjected to Clinton’s “Arab Spring” operations, including Libya and Syria.

    Clinton pressured states receiving U.S. aid and other U.S. allies to recognize Kosovo’s independence. These included Pakistan, Palau, Maldives, St. Kitts-Nevis, Dominica, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Burundi, East Timor, Haiti, Chad, Gambia, Brunei, Ghana, Kuwait, Ivory Coast, Gabon, St. Lucia, Benin, Niger, Guinea, Central African Republic, Andorra, Oman, Guinea-Bissau, Qatar, Tuvalu, Kiribati, Honduras, Somalia, Djibouti, Vanuatu, Swaziland, Mauritania, Malawi, New Zealand, Dominican Republic, Jordan, Bahrain, and Comoros. In the Kosovo capital of Pristina, there is a 10-foot-high statue of Bill Clinton standing over Bill Clinton Boulevard. Not far away is a women’s clothing store called “Hillary.”

    Libya

    Before Hillary: Under Muammar Qaddafi, post-sanction Libya saw a boom in urban construction and a new major international airport to serve as a hub for Africa. Plans announced for an African dinar, supported by Libyan gold holdings, to serve the needs of Africa. All Libyans received free education and medical care. There was a program for revenue sharing of Libya’s oil wealth with the Libyan people.

    After Hillary: Clinton’s 2011 regime change operations against Qaddafi, which saw the Libyan leader sodomized, beaten, and shot in the head by U.S.-supervised jihadist rebels, resulted in Clinton laughing about the incident in the infamous, “We came, we saw, he died” comment. Libya became a failed state where Islamic jihadist terrorists vied for control of the country and Qaddafi’s arm caches were given or sold to jihadist terrorists in Syria, Iraq, Egypt, the pan-Sahel region, and sub-Saharan Africa. After Qaddafi’s ouster, black African guest workers and their families were massacred by jihadist forces.

    Malaysia

    Before Hillary:  Malaysia, before 2009, was a religiously tolerant nation where Buddhists, Christians, and Hindus enjoyed freedom of religion.

    After Hillary: In 2009, Najib Razak became prime minister and he began accepting bribes from Saudi Arabia that totaled some $2.6 billion with additional Malaysian public money in Razak’s personal bank accounts plus the Saudi cash totaling some $3.5 billion. Razak began allowing Saudi-influenced clerics to push for sharia law throughout Malaysia and Christians in Sarawak, Sabah, and Penang began experiencing Wahhabist repression. Clinton was silent about Malaysian persecution of non-Muslims. The reason may have been a reported several hundred million donation from Razak’s slush fund into the Clinton Foundation’s coffers.

    Palestine

    Before Hillary: In 2012, Palestine was granted non-member observer status in the United nations. The 2009 Goldstone Report of the UN found that Israel violated international humanitarian law in its war against Gaza in 2009. Palestine was gaining more support and sympathy internationally and was successfully putting to rest Israeli propaganda disinformation.

    After Hillary: Hillary Clinton rejected the Goldstone Report as “one-sided.” Clinton’s unbridled support for expanding Israeli settlements in the West Bank and east Jerusalem and its silence on the dehumanizing Israeli blockade of Gaza, emboldened Israel’s theocratic right-wing government to further encroach on Palestinian territories and cementing into place an apartheid-like series of Palestinian “Bantustans” in the West Bank and an open-air ghetto in Gaza.

    Paraguay

    Before Hillary: The country under Fernando Lugo began lifting out of poverty the nation’s rural campesinos and urban workers. Paraguay also began a steady move toward democratization after years of military dictatorships.

    After Hillary: Clinton’s 2012 “constitutional coup” against Fernando Lugo brought back into power the military-industrial oligarchy with the nation’s campesinos being forced back into poverty and repressive rule.

    South Sudan

    Before Hillary: Prior to independence in 2011, South Sudan, while rife with intra-tribal feuding, was relatively calm.

    After Hillary: After being rushed into independence from Sudan in 2011, South Sudan, a special project of Clinton, George Soros, and actor George Clooney, descended into civil war and chaos. It beat all records in being transformed from a newly-independent state into a failed state.

    Syria

    Before Hillary: Syria was a multi-cultural and multi-religious secular state championing the concept of pan-Arab socialism and progressive policies advanced by Egypt’s Gamal Abdel Nasser. Syria was not a safe place for jihadism.

    After Hillary: After Clinton’s 2011 green light for the “Arab Spring,” Syria became a failed state where the Islamic State gained a firm foothold. Minority Alawites, Christians, Druze, and Kurds were massacred by jihadist groups aided and abetted by NGOs and other interests backed by Clinton.

    Thailand

    Before Hillary: Thailand’s Red Shirt movement was a powerful force that demanded a return to democracy in Thailand and the restoration of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, ousted in a 2006 military coup, to power.

    After Hillary: A Red Shirt protest in 2010 resulted in a bloody crackdown by the Thai military. Clinton remained silent about the Thai army’s killing of protesters and the mass arrests of Red Shirt leaders. U.S. military assistance to the Thai government was continued by Clinton. When Thaskin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, became prime minister in 2011, Clinton began working to undermine her and her government in a manner not unlike Clinton’s subterfuge against Rousseff in Brazil and Cristina Kirchner in Argentina. When it comes to women leaders, Clinton only tolerates conservatives who kow-tow to the United States. The pressure against Yingluck eventually resulted in her ouster in 2014 and her being criminally charged in the same manner that saw Rousseff charged in Brazil.

    Tunisia

    Before Hillary: Tunisia was one of the most secular nations in the Arab and Islamic world. A top destination for European tourists, the country was more European in its outlook than North African.

    After Hillary: After Clinton’s 2011 “Jasmine Revolution,” a textbook themed revolution crafted by Clinton’s friend George Soros, Tunisia descended into Islamist rule and violence. Today, Tunisia is the top country for recruits to the Islamic State.

    Turkey

    Before Hillary: Turkey was moving steadily closer to European standards on human rights and democracy. Even under the Islamist-oriented Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the country remained committed to pluralism.

    After Hillary: Clinton authorized the shipment of Libyan weapons captured from Qaddafi’s arms caches to Turkish middlemen in the employment of Erdogan’s government for transfer to the jihadist rebels in Syria. A complication in this arrangement resulted in the September 11, 2012 jihadist attack on the CIA warehouse facility in Benghazi, which killed U.S. envoy Chris Stevens and other State Department personnel. Turkey’s dalliance with jihadist rebels in Syria was mirrored by increasing Islamization of Turkey. The events of 2011 and 2012 resulted in Turkey today being ruled by an Islamist strongman, Erdogan, with open political opposition being stamped out.

    Ukraine

    Before Hillary: Ukraine was a stable and neutral country that neither aligned itself with the West and NATO nor with Russia under the presidency of Viktor Yanukovych, elected in 2009 and inaugurated in 2010.

    After Hillary: Clinton tried everything possible to ensure the 2009 defeat of Viktor Yanukovych. The State Department and its friends in the George Soros camp provided assistance to Clinton’s favorite candidate Yulia Tymoshenko to defeat Yanokovych. It was this early interference in the 2009 election that ultimately led to the “Euromaidan” themed revolution in 2014 against the government, resulting in civil war, the retrocession of Crimea back to Russia, and secessionist states in eastern Ukraine. Clinton’s policies directly led to a failed state in Europe.

    Venezuela

    Before Hillary: Under Hugo Chavez, the country provided basic social services to its poorest of citizens. Venezuela also provided discounted gasoline to several Caribbean and Central American countries through the PetroCaribe consortium.

    After Hillary: After Clinton allowed the U.S. embassy in Caracas to foment anti-Chavez labor and political protests, the country began to falter economically. After Chavez’s 2012 diagnosis of terminal cancer, the State Department stepped up pressure on Venezuela, crippling the nation’s economy and political system.

    Western Sahara

    Before Hillary: Recognized by the African Union and several nations around the world as the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR), Western Sahara saw some hope for an evacuation of illegal Moroccan occupation troops from its territory.

    After Hillary: In 2010, Moroccan troops began entering Sahrawi refugee camps and attacking residents, even in UN-protected exclusion zones, where Moroccan troops were prohibited from entering. Clinton ensured that UN talks and a proposed popular referendum on the future of Western Sahara were stalled. Clinton pressured a number of states to withdraw their recognition of the SADR, including St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Paraguay, Haiti, Guinea-Bissau, Cape Verde, Malawi, Kenya, Mauritius, Zambia, Panama, and Burundi. The Clinton Foundation received a 2011 donation of $1 million from a Moroccan phosphate company owned by the Moroccan government and which has mining operations in Western Sahara.

    Yemen

    Before Hillary: Yemen was a largely secular state that was transforming into a federation where the rights of South Yemen and the Zaidi Houthis of north Yemen were being recognized.

    After Hillary: Clinton’s “Arab Spring” of 2011 and the fall of Abdullah Saleh from power saw Yemen become a failed state. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and the Islamic State gained control over several areas of North and South Yemen. The fall of Saleh permitted Saudi Arabia to conduct a genocidal war in the country with Mrs. Clinton’s full support.

     

  • China Housing Bubble Re-Inflates – "Even We Didn't Expect The Prices To Go Up This Much"

    They say that history tends to repeat itself and for the China housing market, and its constantly repeating cycle of bubbles, that certainly seems to be the case.  It seems like just yesterday that we pointed out the following video of ghost towns springing up all over China with millions of square feet of newly constructed residential living space but not a single resident. 

     

    And now, as we’ve pointed out numerous times recently (see posts here and here), China’s home prices are bubbling up all over again.  Prices in China’s smaller cities, in particular, are seeing the largest gains as buyers from the larger tier one cities go hunting for “bargains.”  In fact, per a recent account from Reuters, home prices in the city of Changsha have risen 30% in two months all while 13.5mm square meters of residential real estate remains unoccupied.

    “Prices have risen 2,000 yuan ($299.84) per square meter on average in the past two months. That’s almost a 30 percent rise from July,” said Hu Yi, marketing manager at Central Courtyard, a residential project in Changsha targeting mid- to high-end buyers.

     

    Chen Xiaochuan, marketing manager with local residential property project Xiang-Shore Park said speculators make up about a third of homebuyers in Changsha.

     

    They are mainly from first-tier cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, property agents said, but are also from Hefei, where home prices have doubled since the start of the year.

     

    China Index Academy data shows there are 126,945 homes, or 13.46 million square meters, sitting empty in Changsha.

     

    China Real Estate Bubble

     

    But Changsha isn’t the only city where home prices are bubbling over.  Prices in the Zhengdong district have risen two-thirds this year with sales managers in the area caught off guard, “Even we didn’t expect the prices to go up this much.”

    “We have already bought an apartment here, and we are looking to buy a second one,” a woman who goes by her last name Wang told Reuters just outside of project’s sales office.

     

    “We see a flux of buyers from people outside of Zhengzhou, especially those from smaller cities in the same province,” Xu said, who apologized for his raspy voice, which he said was due to one too many sales pitches.

     

    And for Zhang Liyang, a sales manager at Greenland Group’s HK.600606 Zhengzhou office, the price surge in the past few months came as a surprise, which meant missed opportunities as she was entitled to employee discount rates.

    Of course, as we’ve pointed out numerous times, and confirmed here with data from Deutsche Bank’s China Chief Economist, Zhiwei Zhang, the whole thing is yet another debt-fueled bubble that will inevitably come crashing down again at some point in the not-so-distant future.

    Per the chart below, accompanying China’s booming property market is a surge in mortgage loans with LTV’s skyrocketing to 71.2% in recent months, twice the level in 2016H1, 34.8%, which was already much higher than its peak, around 25%, in previous years.

    China Bubble

     

    Meanwhile, DB points out the average land auction premium for tier 1 cities rose from around 40% at the beginning of the year to over 90% by August.  In tier 2 cities it soared to almost 70% from 25%.  Note, these are premia to asking prices not even YoY price changes…seems very reasonable.

    China Real Estate Bubble

     

    And, of course, pricing growth is almost perfectly correlated with credit expansion.

    China Real Estate Bubble

     

    But, just like last time around, its probably nothing…

  • "The Fed Is Leading Us To Economic Hell" Mauldin Warns "Only A Public Outcry Can Stop It"

    Submitted by John Mauldin via MauldinEconomics.com,

    The Fed argues that low rates have worked. The economy emerged from recession. Unemployment drifted back down. “Yay for us,” said the Fed.

    Don't buy that statistical economic garbage. The economy recovered in spite of Fed policy, not because of it. The economy recovered because business owners, entrepreneurs, and workers rolled up their sleeves and made things happen.

    It involved a lot of pain: layoffs, asset sales, lost customers, and more. But the hard-working citizens of this country slowly and painfully pulled themselves out of the nosedive.

    Those are the people who deserve the credit, not the Fed. Keeping rates at artificially low levels did nothing other than push our economy into the mother of all corners.

    Look where we are now.

    The next recession means rates will go below zero

    The US economy is going to suffer another recession in the not-too-distant future. So, for lack of anything else to do, the Fed is preparing to send rates below zero when the economy next needs goosing. That was clearly the message from Jackson Hole.

    What then? Here is the most likely scenario I think we are facing—and you are not going to like it.

    We are going to go into the next recession with interest rates still stuck in the sub-1% range. This doesn’t give the Fed much ammunition.

    Economists (who could certainly qualify as High Priests) have done studies on recent Fed policies. These show that quantitative easing didn’t really do anything, other than maybe goose the stock market.

    There is also no data that shows any positive benefit from the so-called wealth effect, which was all the academic rage at the beginning of this process. Forget the wealth effect. The fact is that when the stock market goes up, it does not trickle down to the average guy on Main Street.

    (It’s ironic that the same economists who derided supply-side economics as trickle-down economics have adopted trickle-down monetary policy. I mean, that is so messed up on so many levels.)

    We know that the Fed will not simply do nothing. We’ll get quantitative easing on a scale that is currently unimaginable. This will blow out the Fed’s balance sheet to a level that is unrecognizable.

    Unless there’s considerable pushback from Congress. And it must come from more than just the usual suspects on the far right of the Republican Party. If not, we will see negative rates in the world’s reserve currency.

    The central bankers of Europe who are experimenting with negative rates came to Jackson Hole to advise the Fed. They said that negative rates are working wonderfully. Never mind that cash hoarding in Switzerland is at astronomical levels.

    (It’s a fascinating arbitrage: bank rates are -75 bips, and you can insure your cash in a safe deposit box for about 10 bips. And in Switzerland, you can find a bill worth $1000. It makes total sense.)

    Negative rates will drive consumer spending down, not up. They will result in less income in retirees' pockets—forcing them to save more, work longer, and spend less.

    The next 10 years will see an explosion of government debt and an implosion of the ability of governments to fulfill their promises. Any economic or investment model based on past performance under previous economic conditions will be worthless. Just as worthless as the Federal Reserve’s models.

    The toughest investing climate of the last 100 years

    We are truly going to have to go outside the box if we are going to figure out how to get our portfolios from where we are today to the other side of the coming crisis. There is no way to predict what our investment portfolios should look like six months or one year or two years or six years from now.

    I see no way for Europe to avoid that crisis. The US might if we make some radical decisions in 2017. You can ask yourself how likely that is.

    I’m telling you, this is not going to end well. You cannot assume that your investment returns will look anything like the average for the last 20, 30, 40 years.

    I know some people will say that is exactly what’s going to happen. Many of them are my friends, and I enjoy sitting and talking with them over a bottle of wine and a great meal. But I will look them in the eye and tell them that they’re walking into economic hell with their eyes closed. And anyone who follows them will see their portfolio go up in smoke.

    This is going to be the most difficult investing environment of the last 100 years. Only a public outcry can stop it.

    *  *  *

    Follow Mauldin as he uncovers the truth behind, and beyond, the financial headlines in his free publication, Thoughts from the Frontline. The publication explores developments overlooked by mainstream news and analyzes challenges and opportunities on the horizon.

  • Debate Commission Admits There Was An "Issue" With Trump's Microphone

    Almost one week after the first presidential debate, and days after Trump claimed that there were problems with his microphone, earlier today the Commission on Presidential Debates issued a brief, one-sentence statement Friday admitting “issues” with Donald Trump’s audio in during the first presidential debate held on Monday.

    “Regarding the first debate, there were issues regarding Donald Trump’s audio that affected the sound level in the debate hall,” the statement read.

    Was Trump’s audio purposefully impaired? It is unclear, however we do know that while Trump argued after the debate that his microphone was defective, Hillary Clinton dismissed it an excuse of someone who did poorly. Clinton, who put Trump on the defensive, mocked the republican on Tuesday for complaining about his microphone.

    “Anybody who complains about the microphone is not having a good night,” Clinton quipped while speaking to reporters on her plane.

    Trump told reporters immediately following the debate that event organizers “gave me a defective mic” that he said affected the audio inside the Hofstra University venue. 

    In retrospect it means he was right.

    “Did you notice that?” he asked a reporter immediately after the debate. “My mic was defective within the room.” 

    While the issue didn’t appear to affect the broadcast of the debate, it may have led to a loss of concentration at the high stakes event, giving Hillary an advantage.

    “Was that on purpose?” Trump asked. We will likely never know.

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Today’s News 30th September 2016

  • France's New Sharia Police

    Submitted by Yves Manou via The Gatestone Institute,

    • Are French institutions sacrificing one freedom for another? Is equality between men and women being sacrificed to freedom of religion (Islam) to impose its diktats on French society?
    • If someone still does not realize that the Islamic dress code is the Trojan horse of Islamist jihad, he will learn it fast.
    • For years, "big brothers" have been obliging their mothers and sisters to wear a veil when they go out. Now that this job is done, they have begun to fight non-Muslim women who wear shorts and skirts — no longer just in the sensitive Muslim "no-go zones" of the suburbs, where women no longer dare to wear skirts — but now also in the heart of big cities.
    • "The law guarantees women, in all fields, same equal rights as men."
    • What people do not seem to know is that in the heart of Paris, a Muslim man can insult a woman for drinking a cola in the street and is served in stores first, before women.
    • Many people evidently still do not know that Islam is a religion and a political movement at war with the West — and openly intent on subjugating the West. It must be responded to as such. The problem is, every time it is responded to as such, Muslim extremists run for cover under the claim of freedom of religion.
    • It is crucial for Western societies to start making a distinction between freedom of speech and incitement to violence, and to begin seriously penalizing attacks on innocents, as well as calls to attack innocents.

    The Council of State, the highest administrative court in France, decided that, to allow freedom of religion, the burkini must not be banned. At first the ruling looked sound: why should people not be able to wear what they wish when they wish? What is not visible, however, is that the harm comes later.

    If someone still does not realize that the Islamic dress code is the Trojan horse of Islamist jihad, he will learn it fast.

    A few recent incidents include:

    September 7. In Guingamp, Brittany, a 17-year-old girl in shorts was beaten by a man who considered her outfit "too provocative". Although the attacker escaped, so that the police have no idea who he is or what his background might be, it is a taste of things to come.

     

    September 7. In Toulon, southern France, two families were on a bicycle path when they were insulted by a gang of 10 "youths" (the French press uses "jeunes" [youths] in order not to say Arabs or Muslims). According to the local prosecutor, the "youths" shouted at the women, "whores!" and "strip naked!" When the women's husbands protested, the "youths" approached and a fight began. One of the husbands was found unconscious with multiple facial fractures.

     

    At first, the motive of the attack was reported to be linked to the women wearing shorts, but in fact the women were not wearing shorts; they were wearing leggings.

     

    July 19. In a resort in Garde-Colombe (Alps), a Moroccan man stabbed a woman and her three daughters, apparently because they were scantily dressed. One of the girls was seriously injured. The attacker, Mohamed, says that he was the "victim," because he claims the husband of the woman he stabbed scratched his own crotch in front of Mohamed's wife. According to the prosecutor, "the husband of the victim does not remember having made such a gesture."

     

    July 7. A day-camp center in Reims, eastern France, circulated a note asking parents to avoid dressing their daughters in skirts because of the improper conduct of boys aged 10 to 12. A mother published the document on Twitter and commented on Facebook: "Obviously the idea did not occur to them that it is not for little girls to adapt their dress to big creeps, but for big creeps to get educated? "

     

    In early June, 18-year-old Maude Vallet was threatened and spat on by a group of girls on a bus in Toulon because she was wearing shorts. She posted a photo of herself on Facebook with the caption, "Hello, I'm a slut." The posting was shared by more than 80,000 people. The attackers were Muslim girls, but Maude, according the "politically correct" who believe "thntdwi" (this has nothing to do with Islam), did not want to reveal their ethnic origin.

     

    April 22. Nadia, a 16-year-old girl wearing a skirt, was severely beaten in Gennevilliers, a suburb of Paris, by three girls who were apparently Muslims.

    Snapshots of France's new sharia police. Left: In Toulon, 18-year-old Maude Vallet was threatened and spat on by a group of Muslim girls on a bus, because she was wearing shorts. She posted a photo of herself on Facebook with the caption, "Hello, I'm a slut." Right: In a resort in Garde-Colombe, a Moroccan man stabbed a woman and her three daughters on July 19, apparently because they were scantily dressed.

    These cases were dramatically publicized in all media, both official and social. Ironically, however, none of these incidents triggered the international attention and outrage that greeted a Burkini incident in Nice: A woman, apparently Muslim, was lying alone on a beach with no towel, no book, no parasol, no sunglasses, no husband (or brother, or father) to "protect" her, in the full glare of the midday sun near a police post — with a photographer nearby ready and waiting to take pictures of her surrounded by four policemen. Who alerted them? The woman was issued a fine and possibly ordered to remove some of her clothes on the beach. Pictures of the incident were first published on August 23 by the Daily Mail and within minutes went viral, provoking international indignation against these seemingly racist French people discriminating against innocent Arab women. A week later, however, the Daily Mail suggested that this incident may well have been "staged" and the "pictures may be SET UP."

    So the real question is: Are Islamists in France now using photos and videos, the way the Palestinians are doing against Israel: to film and disseminate fake and staged situations in order to provoke global indignation about supposedly poor Muslim "victims" — especially women who are allegedly "discriminated against" in France?

    If fabricated propaganda is allowed to persist, the defrauders will win a big war.

    "In the war that Islamism is leading with determination against civilization, women are becoming a real issue," said Berenice Levet, author and professor of philosophy at the École Polytechnique to the daily Le Figaro.

    She added:

    "Rather than produce figures that say everything and nothing, I want it recognized once and for all that if today the roles of the genders are forced to regress in France, if domination and patriarchy are spreading in our country, this fact is related exclusively to our having imported Muslim values."

    Ironically, at the same moment, France's Minister for Family, Children and Women's Rights, Laurence Rossignol, decided to spend public money on an ad campaign against "ordinary sexism" — the supposed sexism by all French men against supposedly eternally victimized women. But there was not a word in this campaign about the possible victimization or potential outcome from the increasing proliferation of the burqa, veil or burkinis on Muslim women.

    Commenting the ad campaign, Berenice Levet added:

    "Laurence Rossignol should read Géraldine Smith's book, Rue Jean-Pierre Timbaud. Une vie de famille entre barbus et bobos ("Jean-Pierre Timbaud Street: The life of a family among bearded men [Islamists] and Bohemians"). She would learn — among other things — that in some stores or bakeries, men are served first, before women."

    In this book, we can learn also that in the heart of Paris, a Muslim can insult a woman for drinking a cola in the street. But for many, including Rossignol, it seems the only enemy is the white Frenchman.

    Two serious questions are at stake:

    • Are sharia police emerging in France?
    • Are French institutions sacrificing one freedom for another? Is the principle of equality between men and women being sacrificed to freedom of religion (Islam) to impose its diktats on French society?

    Sharia Police

    In France, no organized Islamist brigades patrol the streets (as in Germany or Britain) to fight alcohol consumption or to beat women for the way they are dressed. Yet gangs of "youths", again, both men and women, are increasingly doing just that in practice. For years now, "big brothers" have been obliging their mothers and sisters to wear a veil when they go out. And now that this job is done, they have begun to fight non-Muslim women who wear shorts and skirts — no longer just in the sensitive Muslim enclaves, the "no-go zones" of the suburbs, where women no longer dare to wear skirts — but now also in the heart of big cities.

    More and more, the equivalent of "Islamist Virtue Police" try to impose those standards by violence. As Celine Pina, former regional councilor of Île-de-France, said in Le Figaro:

    "In the last recorded attack [on the families in Toulon], with cries of "whores" and "strip naked", the young men were behaving as a "virtue police" that we had thought impossible here in our parts…

     

    "It cannot be expressed more clearly: it is a command to modesty as a social norm and self-censorship as a behavioral norm… [it]… illustrates the rejection of the female body, seen as inherently impure and dirty…

     

    "The question of the burkini, the proliferation of full veils, assaults against women in shorts and the beating of their companions, share the same logic. Making body of the woman a social and political issue, a marker of the progress of an ideology within society."

    Laurent Bouvet, a professor of political science, noticed on his Facebook page that after the men were beaten in Toulon, so-called human rights organizations — supposedly "professionals" of "anti-racism" — remained silent in the debate.

    The prosecutor of #Toulon said: "the fight was trigger by a women's dress code. These women were not wearing shorts… Sexism is undeniable. Where are the professionals of public indignation?"

    Laurence Rossignol, Minister for Women's Rights, remained silent too. So a new rule has emerged in France: the more politicians and institutions do not want to criticize Islamists norms, the more violent the debate on social networks.

    Equality between Men and Women or Freedom of (Islamic) Religion?

    The silence of politicians and human rights organizations, when non-Muslim women are violently assaulted because they wear shorts that are not compatible with sharia — as opposed to their thundering indignation against police for issuing a fine to a Muslim woman in a burkini — signals an immensely important political and institutional move: A fundamental and constitutional principle, equality between men and women, is being sacrificed in the name of freedom of religion, thereby enabling one religion (Islam) to impose its diktats on the rest of society.

    Studying the burkini case in Nice, Blandine Kriegel, philosopher and former president of Haut Conseil à l'intégration (High Council of Integration) published an analysis in which she establishes that in the burkini case, secularism or individual freedom were not even in danger in the first place. But "fundamentally an openly, the principle of equality between men and women" was surrendered:

    In its remarkable ordinance, the Council of State refers to the jurisprudence of 1909 concerning the wearing of a cassock and does not pay attention to more recent laws voted on by sovereign people, prohibiting the veil at school (2004) and burqa in public places (2010).

     

    The Council of state did not feel inspired either by the constitutional commitment towards women: "the law guarantees women, in all fields, same equal rights as men."

     

    In the burkini affair, neither secularism nor individual freedom is at stake; but fundamentally and openly the principle of equality between men and women. … This term "burkini" integrates intentionally the word "burqa"; this word does not express the desire to go swimming at the beach (nothing prohibits this); or the affirmation of a religious freedom (no mayor has ever prohibited the exercise of the Muslim religion); the word burkini express only the essential inequality of women.

     

    Contrary to their husbands, who feel free to exhibit their nudity, some women must be covered from head to toe. Not only because they are impure, but mostly because of the legal status conferred to them: they are under the private law of the husband, the father or the community.

     

    The Republic cannot accept something opposed to its laws and values. Inequality of women cannot be defended on the ground of religious freedom… of freedom of conscience. This issue was addressed three centuries ago by our European philosophers, who are founding fathers of the Republic. To those who were legitimating oppression, slavery and inequality were merely the expression of free will, explained the French philosopher Jean-Jacques Rousseau, inspiring our 1789 Declaration [of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen], and that freedom and equality are inalienable possessions.

    France's socialist government and administrative judges have apparently found it politically useful to make concessions to Islamists. Perhaps they originally agreed to burkinis not only because they may think that people should wear what they like, but also in the vain hope of calming down the permanent pressure that increasingly appears to be a cultural jihad. It may not even have occurred to them that they were potentially sacrificing the principle of equality of women.

    Many people evidently still do not know that Islam is a religion and a political movement at war with the West — and openly intent on subjugating the West. It must be responded to as such. The problem is, every time it is responded to as such, Muslim extremists run for cover under the claim of freedom of religion.

    It is high time for French and European politicians to draw a hard line between where one person's right to worship as they see fit ends, and where society's right to freedom and security begins. And it is time to outlaw, not necessarily the burkini, but the very real problem of aggressive supremacism.

    The root problem is incitement to violence. It is crucial for Western societies to start making a distinction between freedom of speech and incitement to violence, and to begin seriously penalizing attacks on innocents, as well as calls to attack innocents.

  • This Is How Much Liquidity Deutsche Bank Has At This Moment, And What Happens Next

    It is not solvency, or the lack of capital – a vague, synthetic, and usually quite arbitrary concept, determined by regulators – that kills a bank; it is – as Dick Fuld will tell anyone who bothers to listen – the loss of (access to) liquidity: cold, hard, fungible (something Jon Corzine knew all too well when he commingled and was caught) cash, that pushes a bank into its grave, usually quite rapidly: recall that it took Lehman just a few days for its stock to plunge from the high double digits to zero.

    It is also liquidity, or rather concerns about it, that sent Deutsche Bank stock crashing to new all time lows earlier today: after all, the investing world already knew for nearly two weeks that its capitalization is insufficient. As we reported earlier this week, it was a report by Citigroup, among many other, that found how badly undercapitalized the German lender is, noting that DB’s “leverage ratio, at 3.4%, looks even worse relative to the 4.5% company target by 2018” and calculated that while he only models €2.9bn in litigation charges over 2H16-2017 – far less than the $14 billion settlement figure proposed by the DOJ – and includes a successful disposal of a 70% stake in Postbank at end-2017 for 0.4x book he still only reaches a CET 1 ratio of 11.6% by end-2018, meaning the bank would have a Tier 1 capital €3bn shortfall to the company target of 12.5%, and a leverage ratio of 3.9%, resulting in an €8bn shortfall to the target of 4.5%.

    When Citi’s note exposing DB’s undercapitalization came out, it had precisely zero impact on the price of DB stock. Why? Because as we said above, capitalization – and solvency – tends to be a largely worthless, pro-forma concept. However, when Bloomberg reported today that select funds have withdrawn “some excess cash and positions held at the lender” the stock immediately plunged: the reason is that this had everything to do with not only DB’s suddenly crashing liquidity, but the pernicious feedback loop, where once a source of liquidity leaves, the departure tends to spook other such sources, leading to an outward bound liquidity cascade. Again: just ask Lehman (and AIG) for the details.

    Which then brings us to the $64 trillion (roughly the same amount as DB’s gross notional derivative exposure) question: since DB is suddenly experiencing a sharp “liquidity event”, how much liquidity does Deutsche Bank have access to as of this moment, to offset this event? The answer would allow us to calculate how long DB may have in a worst case scenario if we knew the rate of liquidity outflow.

    For the answer, we go to a just released note by Goldman Sachs, which admits that it is now facing “crisis” questions from clients, among which “can a large European bank face a liquidity event” to wit”

    Deutsche Bank stands at the center of the European financial system – it is a major counterpart of all relevant European banks, and broader. Recent reports of potential litigation hits have compounded capital concerns, and raised the overall level of market anxiety. “Crisis” questions are being asked: “is there risk of a financial crisis re-run” and “can a large European bank face a liquidity event”?

    So what is the answer: how much liquidity does Deutsche Bank have access to? The answer is two fold, with the first part focusing on central bank, in this case ECB, backstops in both $ and €. 

    Goldman starts with an overview of said back-stops, summarized below. These facilities are available to all Eurozone banks (and, naturally, also to Deutsche Bank) – they are generous in terms of volume (full allotment), price (fixed rate at 0%) and tenure (from short term, all the way to 4-years). These ECB facilities are key to ensuring the bank’s long-term funding stability, in Goldman’s view, and were put in place following the funding market fallout in 2007, in order to contain the effects from the Lehman crisis. They were further bolstered to contain the Eurozone sovereign crisis in 2011-12. All of the liquidity provisions remain in place, and broadly, they fall into the following two categories:

    1. Regular market operations: 1-week Main Refinancing Operations or “MRO” (priced @0%), and 3-month Long Term Refinancing Operations or “LTRO” (@0%);
    2. Non-standard measures, which split between € funding facilities with 4-year Targeted LTROs (@0%, with the option to fall to -0.4% if lending targets are met) and the emergency liquidity assistance to solvent financial institutions and a US$ funding facility: 1-week US$ MRO (@0.86%).

    Stepping away from the ECB – because if Deutsche is forced to come crawling to Draghi and beg for central bank liquidity assistance to continue as a going concern, the outcome may be just as dire (recall the stigma associated with US banks using the Fed’s Discount Window) especially since  unlike Lehman, DB has nearly €600 billion in deposits which are susceptible to a retail depositor run – what about Deutsche Bank’s own liquidity position? It is this which appears to be concerning the market most, because as Goldman writes, following the Bloomberg report that hedge fund clients have pulled excess cash, the market has reacted aggressively (ADR down 6.7%), indicating concerns have moved from DBK’s equity to question the resilience of the banks’ funding position.

    Below, Goldman provides an overview of DBK’s liquidity position, noting that its last reported liquidity reserve stood at €223 bn or ~20% of its total assets. DBK’s high quality liquid assets (or HQLA) balance stood at €196 bn or 16% of its total assets; its liquidity coverage ratio (“LCR”) stood at 124%. DBK’s LCR is above that of many largest European banks (BNP 112%), as well as US banks (Citigroup
    121%).

    Here is the breakdown:

    • Liquidity reserve: €223 bn, or ~20% of total assets. In total, DBK’s liquidity reserve stood at €223 bn, representing ~20% of the banks total net assets (where assets are US GAAP equivalent). The 2Q16 level of liquidity reserve compares to €65 bn in 2007, showing that DBK has grown its liquidity reserve by 3.4x from pre-crisis levels.
    • Cash: €125 bn. The liquidity reserve breaks down between €125 bn of cash and cash equivalents, and €98 bn of securities, available for use at the central banks. As highlighted in Exhibit 2, the € portion of the securities can be used to obtain liquidity of varied duration (between O/N to 4-years) at a cost of 0% (and as low as -40 bp, if lending benchmarks are met).
    • LCR: 124%. DBK’s Liquidity Coverage ratio stood at 124%, which is ~1.5x the current regulatory minimum, and a cut above the 2019 fully-loaded requirement of 100%. This compares favorably to, say, Citigroup (121%), BNP (112%). Other US banks (e.g. JPM, BofA) do not disclose their LCR other than to say that they are “compliant”, suggesting LCR is at or above 100%.

    Where does this liquidity come from? Exhibit 3 above examines DBK’s funding composition – this is relevant in the context of media reports highlighting a decline in prime brokerage balances (Bloomberg, September 29). These include:

    • Lowest volatility funding: 57%. Lowest volatility sources of funding – retail deposits, transaction banking balances (corporate and institutional deposits from corporate banking relationships) and equity account for 57% of total funding. Over half of the groups’ funding therefore, stems from this source.
    • Low volatility funds: 15%. Debt securities in issue account for 14% of total funding. Together with the previous category, “lowest” and “low” volatility funding accounts for 72% of total funding.
    • Other customers – this includes prime brokerage cash balance – 7%. The total amount of “other customer” funds, which includes: fiduciary, self-funding structures (e.g. X-markets), margin/Prime Brokerage cash balances (shown on a net basis (see DBK 2015 annual report, p178). Importantly, this represents ~7% of total funding, and is 3.1x covered with the liquidity reserve.
    • Other parts of funding – unsecured wholesale, secured funding – account for the residual.

    In other words, all else equal, even in a worst case Prime Brokerage situation, one where all €71 billion in “other customer” funds flee, DB should still have about €152 billion of the €223 billion in liquidity reserve as of June 30, once again assuming there have been no other changes. Stated simply, if the hedge fund outflow accelerates and depletes all the liquidity at the Prime Brokerage division, DB would part with about a third (just over  €70 billion) of its €220 billion liquidity reserve.

    Some other observations: even if one assumes the full loss of PB balances, DB would still have a Liquidity coverage ratio (“LCR”) of 124%.  The LCR is equivalent to HQLA/net stressed outflows over 30 day period. This ratio shows the banks’ ability to meet stressed funding conditions over a period of 1 month. For Deutsche bank, the LCR stood at 124% with the ratio composed of:

    1. High Quality Liquid Assets (HQLAs) of €196 bn. These include Level 1 assets (the most liquid securities which include cash and equivalents, bonds issued or guaranteed by a government and certain covered bonds); Level 2A assets, which are subject to a haircut (third country government bonds, bonds issued by public entities, EU covered bonds, non-EU covered bonds, corporate bonds) and Level 2B assets (high quality securitisations, corporate bonds, other high quality covered bonds).
    2. The net stressed outflows: €158 bn as of 2Q16 (YE15 €161 bn). DBK’s net stressed outflows amounted to €161 bn at year-end 2015, and include an assumption of loss of prime brokerage deposits. As per Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2015/61 “Deposits arising out of a correspondent banking relationship or from the provision of prime brokerage services shall not be treated as an operational deposit and shall receive a 100 % outflow rate.”
    3. The minimum level is 100% (effective 2018) and is phased in gradually from 2015; the 2016 requirement is 70%.

    Of course, the “stressed outflow over a 30 day period” is an assumption, one which can accelerate rapidly, especially if the stock price of DB continues to fall crushing what is any bank’s most critical asset: counterparty confidence, either from retail investors or institutional peers.

    Still, what the above calculations reveals is that the Bloomberg report suggest that while substantial, the Prime Brokerage outflow would not be, on its own, deadly.  But therein lies the rub: since any bank’s collapse is a procyclical event in which liquidity flees in all directions, with a speed that is usually inversely proportional to the stock price, the lower the price of DB goes (and the higher its CDS), the more dire its liquidity situation.

    However, as noted above, the biggest threat to DB is not so much its hedge fund client base, whose damage potential is limited, but the depositor base. Again: while Lehman failed, it did so as a result of its corporate counterparties suffocating the bank by rapidly pulling out their liquidity lines. Lehman, however, was lucky in that it didn’t have retail depositors: it death would have likely come far faster as the capital panic was not limited to institutions but also included a retail depositor bank run.

    This is where Deutsche Bank is very different from Lehman, and far riskier, because if the institutional panic spreads to the depositor base, which as the table below shows amounts to some €566 billion in total, and €307 billion in retail deposits…

     

    … then all bets are off.

    Which is why it is so critical for Angela Merkel to halt the plunging stock price, an indicator DB’s retail clients, simplistically (and not erroneously) now equate with the bank’s viability, and the lower the price drops, the faster they will pull their deposits, the quicker DB’s liquidity hits zero, the faster the self-fulfilling prophecy of Deutsche Bank’s death is confirmed.

    Which ultimately means that DB really has four options: raise capital (sell equity, convert CoCos, which may results in an even bigger drop in the stock price due to dilution or concerns the liquidity raise may not be sufficient), approach the ECB for a liquidity bridge (this may also backfire as counterparties scramble to flee a central bank-backstopped institution), appeal for a state bailout (Merkel has so far said “Nein”) or implement a bail-in, eliminating billions in unsecured claims (and deposits) and leading to a full-blown systemic bank run as depositors everywhere rush to withdraw their savings, leading to a collapse of the fractional reserve banking mode (in which there is only 10 cents in physical deliverable cash for every dollar in depositor claims). 

    Which of the four choices Deutsche Bank will pick should become clear in the coming days. Until it does, it will keep the market on edge and quite volatile, because as Jeff Gundlach explained today, a “do nothing” scenario is no longer an option for CEO John Cryan as the market will keep pushing the price of DB lower until it either fails, or is bailed out.

  • The Run Begins: Deutsche Bank Hedge Fund Clients Withdraw Excess Cash

    Deutsche Bank concerns just went to ’11’ as Bloomberg reports a number of funds that clear derivatives trades with Deutsche Bank AG have withdrawn some excess cash and positions held at the lender, a sign of counterparties’ mounting concerns about doing business with Europe’s largest investment bank.

    While the vast majority of Deutsche Bank’s more than 200 derivatives-clearing clients have made no changes, some funds that use the bank’s prime brokerage service have moved part of their listed derivatives holdings to other firms this week, according to an internal bank document seen by Bloomberg News.

    Millennium Partners, Capula Investment Management and Rokos Capital Management are among about 10 hedge funds that have cut their exposure, said a person familiar with the situation who declined to be identified talking about confidential client matters.

     

    The hedge funds use Deutsche Bank to clear their listed derivatives transactions because they are not members of clearinghouses. Millennium, Capula and Rokos declined to comment when contacted by phone or e-mail.

    Which explains why short-dated CDS is soaring.

     

     

     

    “Our trading clients are amongst the world’s most sophisticated investors,” Michael Golden, a spokesman for Deutsche Bank, said in an e-mailed statement.

     

    “We are confident that the vast majority of them have a full understanding of our stable financial position, the current macroeconomic environment, the litigation process in the U.S. and the progress we are making with our strategy.”

    Clients review their exposure to counterparties to avoid situations like the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and MF Global’s 2011 bankruptcy when hedge funds had billions of dollars of assets frozen until the resolution of lengthy legal proceedings.

    As expected, Deutsche Bank stock in NY is sliding.

     

    If the most sophisticated professionals in the world are withdrawing cash, why are German depositors leaving their life savings at risk… ahead of a long weekend in Germany (Monday is a bank holiday).

    *  *  *

    And for those believing that there is no contagion and this is all ring-fenced…

     

    And US banks are sliding…

     

    As a reminder, if the liquidity run forces DB to start unwinding or being forced to novate derivatives, it could get ugly.

     

    Those who have cash parked at Deutsche Bank, and at last check there was about €566 billion, they may want to consider moving it for the time being to a safer bank.

     

    * * *

    Earlier this morning, we reported that Europe is experiencing a sudden and acute dollar shortage, which we attributed to Deutsche Bank. It now appears this was accurate. Since Deutsche’s recent highs, the short-end of the EUR-USD basis swap curve has collapsed:

    Simplifying – this chart measures the degree of USD shortage
    (willingness to spend money just to get USD now) across time – the lower
    the level, the more desperate for USDs.

    And no, it’s not a quarter-end issue:

     

    Still not sure… Then explain why European banks just increased
    their demand for USDs from The ECB’s 7-day lending facility by over
    2000%…

    As @Landonthomasjr notes, since 2009: DB shareholders put up 13.5 billion euros in equity. DB has paid 19.3 billion euro in bonuses. Perhaps they should have saved some of that cash eh?

    Simply put – trust in the European Banking system is faltering, counterparty risk hedging is accelerating:

     And liquidity concerns are exploding, ahead of Germany’s bank holiday on Monday.

  • Pizzaflation and the US Dollar collapse

    Sometimes the best economic analysis comes anecdotally.  Why not explain the most important economic issue of our day with America’s favorite food: PIZZA.  As we explain in our book Splitting Pennies – Understanding Forex, the real reason of inflation is because of monetary policy, not supply and demand.

    In case you didn’t know, facts about Pizza

    Pizza is actually America’s favorite food.  The Atlantic covered a DOA report that showed the cheesy stats:

    Like football, pop music, and democracy itself, pizza follows in the long American tradition of things that began overseas before the United States imported, violently altered, and eventually defined the institution. Although the first pizza shops didn’t open in the U.S. until the early 20th century, hundreds of years after the original Neapolitan pies, we now spend $37 billion a year on pizza, accounting for a third of the global market. The obsession deepens. On any given day, about 13 percent of Americans eat pizza, according to a new report from the Department of Agriculture. One in six guys between the ages of two and 39 ate it for breakfast, lunch, or dinner today. In part due to this obsession, per capita consumption of cheese is up 41 percent since 1995. Drawn from the report, here are seven facts about Americans and pizza, presented free of moralizing comments about whether or not it is healthy or sensible for the American diet to consist so overwhelming of bread adorned with tomato-cheesey gloop.

    Pizza, is actually an AMERICAN food, brought to America by the Italians.  Pizza was invented in Italy, but in Italy, Pizza is completely different, and not very popular.  In fact, Pizza is most popular in America.  It’s more American than Apple Pie.  Check it out:

    In 1905, a slice of pizza cost five cents. During the Depression, when families did not have much money, pizza became popular with everyone in the United States. Families were eating different types of pizza on the east and west coasts. A thick-crust pizza was called double-crust pizza or west coast pizza. When they had a large exhibit about pizza at the Texas State Fair, more people inquired about this food than any other.The first recipe for pizza appeared in a fundraising cookbook published in Boston in 1936. The recipe, for Neapolitan pizza, was made by hand. Dough had to be hand-stretched by pizzaiolos and housewives until it was half an inch thick. The pizza had cheese, tomatoes, grated parmesan cheese, and olive oil. Surprisingly, the dough was not made by hand, but cooks were told to buy it at a good Italian bake shop.However, pizza was mostly limited to Italian immigrant communities until after World War II, when American soldiers returning from Italy still wanted their pies. Popularity spread, and various American styles developed. Pizzeria Uno is credited with the invention of the Chicago deep dish pizza in 1943. This is known as tomato pie and was baked in rectangular pans in bakeries. Its crust was extra thick and it had seasoned tomato puree and was dusted with Romano cheese before it went into the oven. Some eventually had meat and thick cheese, and it was so thick, it often had to be eaten with a knife and fork.

    The American Dollar is collapsing

    From five cents a slice to $20 a Pizza.  What happened?  During this time, the US Dollar went down by more than 95%.  Let’s take a look at one of America’s favorite Pizzas, Numero Uno Pizza.  For those of you who have not had the pleasure to live in the greater Los Angeles area, where Numero Uno has had 95% name recognition, Numero Uno Pizza is a household name.  Interestingly, Numero Uno was founded in Los Angeles right around the time Nixon created Forex; 1970.  We’ve obtained an old Numero Uno menu (we think though, it’s from the 80s) that shows prices from that time:

    Wow!  .85 House Wine, less than $5 for a Carafe!  

    Now take a look at prices we’ve lifted from current NU store sites, such as Numero Uno Palmdale:

    The most popular NU pizza is the S5 “Slaughterhouse 5” which currently stands at $16.95.  We confirmed with the manager of Palmdale location that indeed; prices are due for a rate hike in January.

    From $10.85 to $16.95 isn’t too bad, Pizzaflation is not nearly as bad as inflation in other markets, most notably, real estate, groceries, coffee, and other items.  Using an inflation calculator, $1 in 1970 is about $6.21 today.  If the menu is from 1985, the S5 should be $24.29.  Other NU stores have it priced at $19.99.  In any case, for older folk, $20 is a lot to pay for a Pizza, in their mind.  But that’s only because of memory, of times past.  Inflation is a slow subtle tax.  From a ‘real dollar’ perspective, Numero Uno Pizza is cheap.

    Let’s understand the second component of inflation that’s less obvious – the deterioration of QUALITY.  You can get a Pizza today for $5 – but it’s a bunch of crap.  Like any product, you get what you pay for.  This part of inflation, the decline in quality, is less obvious but more damaging.  Every year, products get a little worse and worse.

    The real cause of Pizzaflation

    Real analysts must always seek the CAUSALITY  

    Inflation happens only for one reason:  Central Bank prints more currency.  More currency, chasing the same or fewer goods and assets, makes the price go up.  It’s really simple!  QE (Quantitative Easing) has been rampant in recent years.  Fortunately for consumers, most inflation has happened in financial markets, real estate, and other markets.

    This phenomenon has been covered well in “The Burrito Index:”

    In our household, we measure inflation with the “Burrito Index”: How much has the cost of a regular burrito at our favorite taco truck gone up?

    Since we keep detailed records of expenses (a necessity if you’re a self-employed free-lance writer), I can track the real-world inflation of the Burrito Index with great accuracy: the cost of a regular burrito from our local taco truck has gone up from $2.50 in 2001 to $5 in 2010 to $6.50 in 2016.That’s a $160% increase since 2001; 15 years in which the official inflation rate reports that what $1 bought in 2001 can supposedly be bought with $1.35 today.

    If the Burrito Index had tracked official inflation, the burrito at our truck should cost $3.38—up only 35% from 2001. Compare that to today’s actual cost of $6.50—almost double what it “should cost” according to official inflation calculations.

    Since 2001, the real-world burrito index is 4.5 times greater than the official rate of inflation—not a trivial difference.

    Between 2010 and now, the Burrito Index has logged a 30% increase, more than triple the officially registered 10% drop in purchasing power over the same time.

    Those interested can check the official inflation rate (going back to 1913) with the BLS Inflation calculator by clicking here.

    My Burrito Index is a rough-and-ready index of real-world inflation. To insure its measure isn’t an outlying aberration, we also need to track the real-world costs of big-ticket items such as college tuition and healthcare insurance, as well as local government-provided services. When we do, we observe results of similar magnitude.

    The takeaway? Our money is losing its purchasing power much faster than the government would like us to believe.

    It’s important for consumers to understand, Pizzaflation is not caused by Pizza makers.  Numero Uno actually is doing a great job keeping prices low, because their food cost, rent, and other costs, are all exploding parabolic.

    Los Angeles has the highest rent burden in America:

    Overall, rents in Los Angeles have doubled since the 1970s:

    But of course, that’s not counting other various fees, taxes, increased regulatory costs, increased insurances due to higher crime rates, and other factors.  Pizzaflation has hit Los Angeles hard, creating a ‘double whammy’ for businesses like Numero Uno.  And with LA’s median income flat since 1970, it makes one wonder who can afford a $20 Pizza.  But the remaining Numero Uno stores are mostly packed and have great reviews, so it seems that it takes something really Magic to survive the pressure of the Fed.

    To learn more about how the Fed decreases the value of the US Dollar via Quantitative Easing, checkout Splitting Pennies – Understanding Forex – your pocket guide to make you a Forex genius!  

    The good news, Forex is artificial so you can learn about it online.  It’s all digital.  If you want the best Pizza you’ve ever had in your life – you’ll have to drive all the way to Palmdale, California and visit Numero Uno Palmdale.

  • A Conspiracy Theory About Conspiracy Theories

    Submitted by Paul Rosenberg via FreemansPersepctive.com,

    One of the funny things about conspiracy theories, including false flag attacks, is how often they are proven to be true. You have to wonder how long the shame-inducing slam, “That’s a conspiracy theory,” will keep working.

    But that’s not my point for today. Today, I want to introduce a conspiracy theory of my own, a conspiracy theory about conspiracy theories. Here it is:

    The powers that be – the elite, the deep state, whomever – want wild conspiracy theories to spread. Because after these wild theories set the “outrage meter” very high, they can get away with almost anything below that line.

    In other words, wild theories ensure that the “I’ll act if I see that” trigger is never reached and Joe Average remains docile, even as he is progressively abused.

    I hope I haven’t given any nefarious people ideas, but I think this is already happening. And in any event, I’m fairly certain it’s worth pointing out.

    A Second Theory

    There is a second reason for the lords of the status quo to love conspiracy theories, which is that such theories make it easy to discredit troublesome ideas.

    For example, we now know – thank you again, Edward Snowden – that government agents are infiltrating websites to sow fear, uncertainty, and doubt, as well as to destroy reputations.

    So, rather than just pulling out the usual manipulation to discredit a troublesome idea (“conspiracy theory!”), why not tie it to some really nasty racist crap?

    Lots of people have avoided discussions of the Federal Reserve, for example, because trolls attached to the discussions demonize Jews. Disgusted by anti-Semitism, people turn away from the whole subject, and the central banking scam remains unquestioned.

    There are reasons open comment boards are overrun with hate-spewing trolls, and it’s not that deeply deluded people make up that much of the general populace. (Though they do exist, and they do love to spew their filth.)

    So, this is my second conspiracy theory:

    Disgusting trolls are paid to promote certain ideas… ideas the elite want to eliminate.

    And nowadays, paid trolls aren’t even needed; artificial intelligence bots can carry out the work quite well and can even respond to counter-posts.

    Can I Prove This?

    Not entirely, no. And I’m not going to spend hundreds of hours tracking down evidence. That’s not my job; I’m not an investigative journalist. (Neither is anyone else these days, but that’s a separate point.)

    Still, the links I’ve inserted above prove a lot of what I’m writing, and the rest will have to remain my own personal theories… and I’m just fine with that. People can take them or leave them as they choose.

    The Other Problem

    Beyond everything covered above, the other problem with conspiracy theories is that they are far too hopeful. Yes, hopeful.

    The implication buried in conspiracy theories is that the world is being controlled. Whether it’s controlled by the Illuminati, the Jews, the Masons, or whomever, there is a strange sort of comfort in the idea that the world is controllable.

    The comforting thought goes like this:

    The world is being controlled by evil people. So, if we can just get rid of them, control will revert to good people, and things will be great again.

    This thought is false. The world is not controlled by any single group of people. Rather, it’s a large, chaotic mess. Yes, the deep staters, central bankers, and so on do manipulate a lot of things, but they struggle endlessly and very often fail. Consider just two recent examples:

    • If they were that smart, these groups wouldn’t have allowed the internet to jump onto the scene in the early 1990s.

    • If they were that potent, they would have killed Bitcoin as soon as it appeared.

    The truth is that they’re not that smart, and they’re not all-powerful. In fact, they have power only to the extent that they hoodwink people into serving them. And that’s not an iron-clad arrangement.

    So…

    Presuming that everything above is true, what do we do about it?

    My first thought is that we should stick to facts, not imaginings. I suspect, for example, that Building 7 at the World Trade Center was purposely brought down, but I don’t know that. My suspicions don’t make it true. Furthermore, it isn’t worth obsessing over. There are dozens of more important things to invest with time and energy – like actually building a better world.

    I can’t think of a single conspiracy theory that’s worth majoring upon. Aliens at Roswell or the Kennedy assassination may be fun speculations – and I’d love to know the God’s-honest truth about both – but they’re simply not that important.

    Rather, we should be busy building a better world, bypassing the institutions of abuse that dominate life in the West.

  • FBI Investigating More Dead People Voting In The Key Swing State Of Virginia

    For years the political elites, backed by funding from George Soros, have fought common sense voter ID laws as blatant attempts of racist right wingers to suppress the votes of minority and low-income citizens.  These same people tirelessly argue that there is no evidence of voter fraud despite the mountain of facts that keeps piling up the contrary.  In fact, per the National Review, United States District Judge Lynn Adelman of Wisconsin, in response to a voter ID complaint in that state, recently claimed that “virtually no voter impersonation occurs” in Wisconsin and that “no evidence suggests that voter-impersonation fraud will become a problem at any time in the foreseeable future.”

    Well, we guess that could be true if the pesky facts would just stop getting in the way.  According to research conducted by the Pew Research Center in 2012, the capacity for voter fraud in the U.S. is substantial with nearly 2mm dead people found to be registered voters and nearly 3mm people registered in multiple states. 

    • Approximately 24 million—one of every eight—voter registrations in the United States are no longer valid or are significantly inaccurate
    • More than 1.8 million deceased individuals are listed as voters
    • Approximately 2.75 million people have registrations in more than one state

    And, just earlier today we wrote about how Arcan Cetin, the 20 year old Turkish citizen who recently killed 5 people at the Cascade Mall in Washington, somehow managed to vote in the past 3 election cycles despite not being a U.S. citizen.  When asked about the news, Washington Secretary of State, Kim Wyman, simply said “we don’t have a provision in state law that allows either county elections officials or the Secretary of State’s office to verify someone’s citizenship.”  Sure, because why would someone’s citizenship status be important for determining his eligibity to vote?

    Now, courtesy of WaPo, we know that the FBI is investigating how exactly 19 dead people were recently re-registered to vote in the critical swing state of Virginia.  A few months ago we noted Virginia Governor, and long-time Clinton confidant, Terry McAuliffe‘s willingness to go to great lengths to hand his state’s 13 electoral votes to Hillary by registering 200,000 felons to vote, but adding dead people to the voting rolls seems a bit excessive (see “FelonsVotesMatter (To Hillary) – Clinton’s Election Fate In Virginia Lies With 200,000 Unregistered Offenders“).

    Dead Voters

    Alas, according to WaPo, all 19 deceased voters were originally registered to vote in Harrisonburg and attempts to re-register the deceased voters were only discovered by chance after a clerk recognized one of the names as the deceased father of a local judge.

    All 19 were initially registered as voters in the Shenandoah Valley city of Harrisonburg, although a clerk double-checking the entries later raised questions about one. She recognized the name of Richard Allen Claybrook Sr., who died in 2014 at age 87, because his son is a well-known local judge. She happened to recall that the judge’s father had died.

     

    He was a retired Fairfax County elementary school principal and had fought in World War II,” said his son, retired Harrisonburg General District Court Judge Richard Allen Claybrook Jr. “So our family is very disgusted that they would pick his name, because he was such a law-abiding citizen devoted to public service.”

     

    All of the forms had been submitted by a private group that was working to register voters on the campus of James Madison University, according to the Harrisonburg registrar’s office. The group was not identified. No charges have been filed.

    Meanwhile, state republicans pointed to this as obvious evidence of voter fraud…

    Republicans in the state House of Delegates, who in recent years have supported tighter voter ID laws, held a conference call with reporters to call attention to the investigation.

     

    Oftentimes we hear our Democratic colleagues suggest that voter fraud doesn’t exist in Virginia, or it’s a myth,” House Speaker William J. Howell (R-Stafford) said. “This is proof that voter fraud not only exists but is ongoing and is a threat to the integrity of our elections.

    …while democrats responded with the same ole argument that no fraud occurred because no one actually voted. 

    “First of all, there was no voter fraud — they caught him,” Toscano said. “Nobody cast a vote. . . . There’s still no evidence of that going on in the state. But there is evidence every time you turn around that the Republicans are trying to make it more difficult for citizens to vote in elections.”

    Of course, we just pointed out how the dead in Colorado are actually voting and have been doing so for years…but we’re sure that’s not a concern to Toscano either.

    But something tells us, no matter how many of these types of situations emerge over and over, that U.S. citizens, and common sense for that matter, will never prevail in the war against George Soros and the simple political narrative that voter I.D. laws are somehow racist and/or disenfranchise low-income voters.  

  • US Outcry Over Syria… Tears Followed By NATO Bombs

    Submitted by Finian Cunningham via Strategic-Culture.org,

    The crescendo of US-led condemnations against Syria and Russia over alleged humanitarian crimes in Syria grows louder by the day. The eerie sense is that this «outcry» is being orchestrated as a prelude to a NATO-style intervention in Syria.

    Such a NATO maneuver would follow the template for former Yugoslavia and Libya, leading to greater civilian deaths, territorial disintegration, a surge in regional terrorism and more international lawlessness by Western states.

    The concerted, emotive appeals over the past week – bordering on hysteria – indicate a propaganda campaign coordinated between Washington and its Western allies, the mass media and the US-led NATO military alliance.

    It was US ambassador the United Nations Samantha Power who led the chorus of accusations against Russia and its Syrian ally, using the Security Council emergency meeting last weekend to condemn «barbarism» of renewed violence around the northern Syrian city of Aleppo. Britain and France piled in with more unsubstantiated condemnations of war crimes, as did shameless UN officials, Ban Ki-Moon, the secretary general, and Staffan de Mistura, the UN’s special envoy to Syria.

    Few people would countenance war, but surely Syria has the sovereign right to defend its nation from a foreign-fueled war on its territory. In all the lachrymose lecturing from the likes of Samantha Power, the pertinent question of who started this war in the first place gets lost in rhetorical fog.

    Days later, NATO civilian chief Jens Stoltenberg issued a statement denouncing Russia and Syria for «blatant violation of international laws» in Aleppo, adding that the military actions by both were «morally totally unacceptable».

    All the while, Western news media outlets have run saturation coverage of what they depict as a humanitarian hell in Aleppo, the strategic Syrian city where the final throes of the country’s nearly six-year war seem to be playing out.

    The New York Times published an article with the gut-wrenching headline: ‘The Children of Aleppo, Syria, Trapped in a Killing Zone’.

    It goes on to say: «Among the roughly 250,000 people trapped in the insurgent redoubt of the divided northern Syrian city are 100,000 children, the most vulnerable victims of intensified bombings by Syrian forces and their Russian allies.»

    In a separate article, euronews.com reports: ‘Nowhere to hide’ – volunteer describes conditions inside Aleppo’.

    The implication in the Western mass media is that Syrian and Russian air forces are bombarding indiscriminately across civilian districts of the city. The same desperate tone and bias is ubiquitous in all Western media outlets.

    However, if we ascertain the sources for this saturation information, it turns out to be a limited range of anonymous «activists», or the Western-funded group known as the White Helmets, which purports to be a humanitarian response network, but which in actual fact is integrated with illegally armed insurgents, including the al Qaeda terror organization Jabhat al Fatah al Sham (al Nusra Front), as writer Rick Sterling details.

    Western TV news outlets are routinely using video footage from the White Helmets, supposedly taken in the aftermath of air strikes on Aleppo. This is an astounding abdication of any journalistic ethics of independence and impartiality.

    These same media outlets rarely, if ever, carry reports from the western side of Aleppo where a six-fold greater population – 1.5 million – live in government-held districts, compared with the «rebel-held» eastern quarter.

    As independent writer Vanessa Beeley recently reported, some 600,000 people fled to the western side of Aleppo from the al Nusra-dominant stronghold on the eastern side. According to medics quoted by Beeley, the majority of the population in the eastern quarter are being held hostage as human shields by the insurgents, or as the Western governments and media call them «moderate rebels» and «activists». There are also credible witness reports of terrorists shooting at people fleeing from the east through humanitarian corridors set up by the Syrian government.

    In recent weeks, hundreds of civilians in the western districts of Aleppo have been killed from indiscriminate shelling and sniping by militants from the eastern side.

    When do you ever hear or read the Western media reporting on those crimes? You don’t, because that would unravel the propaganda narrative aimed at demonizing, criminalizing and delegitimizing the Syrian government and its Russia ally.

    And a key leitmotif of the official Western narrative is to create the perception that innocent civilians in Aleppo are being slaughtered by Syria and Russian forces. Both Damascus and Moscow reject claims that they are targeting civilian areas. Moscow has vehemently refuted Western claims that it is committing war crimes. Even the normally jingoistic US outlet Radio Free Europe quotes a legal expert from Amnesty International as saying that there is no evidence to indict Russia of such crimes.

    And because the anti-government militants restrict access to their stronghold, including for UN aid agencies, it is hard to verify the claims and footage coming out of there. Which notwithstanding has not restrained Western media from broadcasting the information verbatim.

    The Western mantra of «humanitarian crisis» and «war crimes» has the unmistakable connotation of contriving a public acceptance of certain policy objectives that Washington and its allies are striving for. At the very least, one of those objectives is to create a political atmosphere whereby Syria and Russia are obliged to comply with calls for no-fly zones, as recently demanded by US Secretary of State John Kerry. So far, Syria and Russia have rebuffed any such initiative, saying that it would give succor to the illegally armed groups who are now decisively in retreat.

    Still, a more far-reaching objective could be Washington and its allies fostering a public mandate for military intervention by the NATO alliance. The outcry over «humanitarian suffering» in eastern Aleppo is a repeat of the «responsibility to protect» (R2P) ploy which NATO invoked to previously intervene and dismember former Yugoslavia in the late 1990s, and a decade later in Libya in 2011.

    The US official inimitably qualified for such a political objective is Washington’s ambassador at the UN – Samantha Power. Her recent diatribes against Russia show a total disregard for diplomatic or legal protocol. Suffused with self-righteousness and selective «humanitarian» concern, Power is evidently leading a media campaign to mandate a NATO force being deployed to Syria’s Aleppo in order to «protect the children trapped in a killing zone» as the New York Times might put it.

    Forty-six-year-old Power has made her entire professional career out of formulating the «R2P» doctrine that has in the past well-served Washington’s imperialist goals.

    As a young reporter in the 1990s, Power wrote one-sided screeds about ethnic cleansing and genocide in the Balkans, which conveniently demonized Serbia, culminating in the NATO bombing of Belgrade in 1999 and the subsequent carve up of Kosovo to become a NATO base. For this service to imperial interests, she was subsequently rewarded with a professorship at Harvard University and a Pulitzer-prize-winning book about genocide, a book which eminent scholars like Edward Herman have debunked as a load of plagiarism and self-serving historical distortions.

    The fiery, Irish-born Power was later promoted by President Barack Obama as an advisor on his National Security Council. It was in this position that she pushed the policy of NATO bombing Libya in 2011 with a reprise of her «R2P» doctrine.

    These NATO military assaults facilitated by emotive appeals to «humanitarian values» have since been shown to be reckless violations of international law amounting to foreign aggression. Earlier this year, the late Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic was officially exonerated over war crimes allegations, charges that NATO had leveled to justify its bombardment of his country. Also, earlier this month a British parliamentary committee denounced former prime minister David Cameron for his involvement in the NATO intervention in Libya as being unfounded on claims that then Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi was preparing to slaughter residents in the city of Benghazi.

    But it was so-called «liberal hawks» like Samantha Power who were instrumental in providing political and moral cover for Washington and the NATO military to conduct these illegal foreign invasions and regime changes under the pretext of protecting human rights and civilian lives.

    Obama assigned his useful apparatchik Samantha Power to the United Nations in August 2013, where she has proven to be completely out of her depth in terms of diplomatic finesse. She has infused her position on the Security Council with anti-Russian vitriol in the pursuit of Washington’s hegemonic interests, regardless of international law or objective historical analysis.

    The «humanitarian» propaganda drumbeat over Aleppo belies the facts and circumstances of Washington’s covert war for regime change in Syria. A dirty war in which it and its NATO allies have colluded with a proxy army of terrorist gangs, as this recent German media report by Jurgen Todenhofer confirms.

    Faced with a losing covert war in Syria, through the defeat of its terror proxy forces, it appears that Washington is striving for a more robust intervention in the guise of NATO military deployment, perhaps as «peacekeepers» overseeing a no-fly zone, as seen previously in Libya with disastrous results.

    Emoting about humanitarian concerns is a well-worn prelude for NATO barbarism on behalf of Washington’s geopolitical interests. Crocodile tears followed by bombs. And no better person to carry out this subterfuge than UN ambassador Samantha Power.

  • 4 States Sue To Block Obama's Internet Transition Set For Tomorrow Night

    The US government, much to the chagrin of Senator Ted Cruz, is set to officially relinquish the Department of Commerce’s oversight of the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) as of tomorrow night at midnight.  ICANN is a California nonprofit that has supervised website domains since 1998, essentially under subcontract from the Commerce Department. Under the Obama transition plan oversight by the U.S. Commerce Department would end and be replaced by a multi-stakeholder community, which would include the technical community, businesses, civil society and governments.

    Cruz had attempted to block the internet transition by tying the recently passed funding bill to the reversal of the ICANN turnover.  That said, apparently his harsh admonishments on the Senate floor failed to draw enough support from his fellow republicans to force a government shutdown over the topic. 

    “In 22 short days, if Congress fails to act, the Obama administration intends to give away control of the Internet to an international body akin to the United Nations,” Sen. Cruz said. “I rise today to discuss the significant, irreparable damage this proposed Internet giveaway could wreak not only on our nation, but on free speech across the world.”

     

    “The Obama administration is instead pushing through a radical proposal to take control of Internet domain names and instead give it to an international organization, ICANN, that includes 162 foreign countries. And if that proposal goes through, it will empower countries like Russia, like China, like Iran to be able to censor speech on the Internet, your speech. Countries like China, Russia, and Iran are not our friends, and their interests are not our interests.

     

    “Imagine searching the Internet and instead of seeing your standard search results, you see a disclaimer that the information you were searching for is censored. It is not consistent with the standards of this new international body, it does not meet their approval. Now, if you’re in China, that situation could well come with the threat of arrest for daring to merely search for such a thing that didn’t meet the approval of the censors. Thankfully, that doesn’t happen in America, but giving control of the Internet to an international body with Russia, and China, and Iran having power over it could lead to precisely that threat, and it’s going to take Congress acting affirmatively to stop it.

    ICANN

     

    Supporters of the plan counter that critics’ harsh rhetoric fails to recognize that ICANN will be turned over to management by an independent board with representation from all over the world with no single body holding undue influence over decisions.  According to Yahoo, the transition has drawn support from Google and several democrat senators who commented to TechCrunch that “the internet belongs to the world, not to Ted Cruz.”

    “The transition will further strengthen the internet as a stable, resilient and secure tool for empowering billions of people across the globe for decades to come.”

     

    Google senior vice president Kent Walker also endorsed the shift, saying it would “fulfill a promise the United States made almost two decades ago: that the internet could and should be governed by everyone with a stake in its continued growth.”

     

    “The internet belongs to the world, not to Ted Cruz,” Senators Brian Schatz and Chris Coons, and Representatives Anna Eshoo, Doris Matsui, Frank Pallone and Mike Doyle said in an article for the TechCrunch news site.

     

    “If the Republicans successfully delay the transition, America’s enemies are sure to pounce. Russia and its allies could push to shift control of the internet’s core functions to a government body like the UN where they have more influence.”

    But, in a last ditch effort to block the transition, 4 state attorneys general from Arizona, Oklahoma, Nevada and Texas, have filed a lawsuit in a Texas federal court alleging that the transition, in the absence of congressional approval, amounts to an illegal forfeiture of U.S. government property.  According to Politico, the lawsuit also expresses concern that the reorganized ICANN would be so unchecked that it could “effectively enable or prohibit speech on the Internet.”  

    “Trusting authoritarian regimes to ensure the continued freedom of the internet is lunacy,” said Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in a statement. “The president does not have the authority to simply give away America’s pioneering role in ensuring that the internet remains a place where free expression can flourish.”

     

    “I think, as a matter of philosophy, turning this over ultimately is maybe a great idea in the long run,” the attorney general said, “but I do think there are a lot of stakeholders involved, and we want to make sure no one in the future can limit or suppress access to the internet or punish people for speaking their minds.”

    Given Obama’s recent humiliating loss on the 9/11 lawsuit bill, we’re sure that efforts to block his internet transition plan will draw some attention at the White House.

  • Trump Campaign Releases "Ten Inconvenient Truths About The Clinton Foundation"

    Just a few weeks back we introduced you to the work of Wall Street analyst Charles Ortel who spent the past year and a half digging into the Clinton Foundation and subsequently labeled it as a “Charity Fraud Of Epic Proportions” (see our full post on the findings here:  ““Clinton Foundation Is Charity Fraud Of Epic Proportions”, Analyst Charges In Stunning Takedown“).  As many of our readers know, Ortel is the analyst that uncovered financial discrepancies at General Electric before its stock crashed in 2008, and was described by the Sunday Times of London as “one of the finest analysts of financial statements on the planet” in a 2009 story detailing the troubles at AIG.

    After a year and a half of looking into the Clinton Foundation, Ortel summarized his findings as follows:

    “An educated guess, based upon ongoing analysis of the public record begun in February 2015, is that the Clinton Foundation entities are part of a network that has defrauded donors and created illegal private gains of approximately $100 billion in combined magnitude, and possibly more, since 23 October 1997.

    With that, here’s 10 more things that the Trump campaign thinks you should know about the Clinton Foundation.

    * * *

    Here Are Ten Facts Everyone Should Know About The Massive Conflict Of Interest And Corruption Issues Facing The Clinton Foundation

    FACT ONEThere Are Major Overlaps Between Clinton’s Campaign Donors And Her Foundation Donors, Raising Ethical Red Flags:

    According To The Washington Post, Nearly Half Of The Major Donors To Ready For Hillary And Nearly Half Of Her 2008 Campaign Bundlers Have Given At Least $10,000 To The Foundation. “Nearly half of the major donors who are backing Ready for Hillary, a group promoting her 2016 presidential bid, as well as nearly half of the bundlers from her 2008 campaign, have given at least $10,000 to the foundation, either on their own or through foundations or companies they run.” (Rosalind S. Helderman, Tom Hamburger and Steven Rich, “Clintons’ Foundation Has Raised Nearly $2 Billion — And Some Key Questions,” The Washington Post, 2/18/15)

    • The Clintons Have Relied Heavily On Their Close Ties To Wall Street, With Donations From The Financial Services Sector Representing The Largest Share Of Corporate Donors.”(Rosalind S. Helderman, Tom Hamburger and Steven Rich, “Clintons’ Foundation Has Raised Nearly $2 Billion — And Some Key Questions,” The Washington Post, 2/18/15)

    The Foundation “Has Given Contributors Entree, Outside The Traditional Political Arena, To A Possible President.” “The financial success of the foundation, which funds charitable work around the world, underscores the highly unusual nature of another Clinton candidacy. The organization has given contributors entree, outside the traditional political arena, to a possible president. Foreign donors and countries that are likely to have interests before a potential Clinton administration — and yet are ineligible to give to U.S. political campaigns — have affirmed their support for the family’s work through the charitable giving.” (Rosalind S. Helderman, Tom Hamburger and Steven Rich, “Clintons’ Foundation Has Raised Nearly $2 Billion — And Some Key Questions,” The Washington Post, 2/18/15)

    The Washington Post’s Review Of The Foundation’s Seven Biggest Donors Found “That There Is Strong Overlap Between The Family’s Political Base And The Foundation,” And That A Substantial Number Of Its Donors Are Based Outside Of The U.S. “The review found that there is strong overlap between the family’s political base and the foundation and that a substantial number of the foundation’s largest donors — those who have given at least $1 million — are based outside of the United States. Financial institutions also make up the largest portion of the foundation’s corporate giving.”(Rosalind S. Helderman, “Here Are The Seven Biggest Donors To The Bill, Hillary And Chelsea Clinton Foundation,” The Washington Post, 2/19/15)

    Bill Allison Of The Sunlight Foundation: “The Clinton Foundation Is A Unique Non-Profit That Can’t Be Separated From The American Political System.” “Bill Allison, senior policy analyst at the Sunlight Foundation, a campaign finance watchdog group, says the Clinton foundation is a unique non-profit that can’t be separated from the US political system. ‘If there is foreign money coming into the Clinton Foundation, it will raise the question of – is the president going to be doing favors for a foreign business, a foreign government, a foreign individual? And you just cannot have that in the American system of government, where the president is supposed to represent the American people,’ Allison said.” (Julianna Goldman, “Chinese Company Pledged $2 Million To Clinton Foundation In 2013,” CBS News, 3/16/15)

     

    FACT TWOSeveral Major Clinton Foundation Donations Came From Companies Lobbying The Federal Government:

    The Wall Street Journal Headline: “Hillary Clinton’s Complex Corporate Ties” (James V. Grimaldi and Rebecca Ballhaus, “Hillary Clinton’s Complex Corporate Ties,” The Wall Street Journal, 2/19/15)

    As Secretary Of State Clinton “Was One Of The Most Aggressive Global Cheerleaders For American Companies…” “Among recent secretaries of state, Hillary Clinton was one of the most aggressive global cheerleaders for American companies, pushing governments to sign deals and change policies to the advantage of corporate giants such as General Electric Co., Exxon Mobil Corp., Microsoft Corp. and Boeing Co.” (James V. Grimaldi and Rebecca Ballhaus, “Hillary Clinton’s Complex Corporate Ties,” The Wall Street Journal, 2/19/15)

    • “At The Same Time, Those Companies Were Among The Many That Gave To The Clinton Family’s Global Foundation…” “At the same time, those companies were among the many that gave to the Clinton family’s global foundation set up by her husband, former President Bill Clinton.” (James V. Grimaldi and Rebecca Ballhaus, “Hillary Clinton’s Complex Corporate Ties,” The Wall Street Journal, 2/19/15)

    “At Least 60 Companies That Lobbied The State Department During Her Tenure Donated A Total Of More Than $26 Million To The Clinton Foundation…” “At least 60 companies that lobbied the State Department during her tenure donated a total of more than $26 million to the Clinton Foundation, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of public and foundation disclosures.” (James V. Grimaldi and Rebecca Ballhaus, “Hillary Clinton’s Complex Corporate Ties,” The Wall Street Journal, 2/19/15)

    “At Least 44 Of Those 60 Companies Also Participated In Philanthropic Projects Valued At $3.2 Billion That Were Set Up Though A Wing Of The Foundation Called The Clinton Global Initiative…” “At least 44 of those 60 companies also participated in philanthropic projects valued at $3.2 billion that were set up though a wing of the foundation called the Clinton Global Initiative, which coordinates the projects but receives no cash for them.” (James V. Grimaldi and Rebecca Ballhaus, “Hillary Clinton’s Complex Corporate Ties,” The Wall Street Journal, 2/19/15)

    “As Secretary Of State, She Created 15 Public-Private Partnerships Coordinated By The State Department, And At Least 25 Companies Contributed To Those Partnerships.” (James V. Grimaldi and Rebecca Ballhaus, “Hillary Clinton’s Complex Corporate Ties,” The Wall Street Journal, 2/19/15)

    Clinton “Has A Web Of Connections To Big Corporations Unique In American Politics—Ties Forged Both As Secretary Of State And By Her Family’s Charitable Interests.” “As Mrs. Clinton prepares to embark on a race for the presidency, she has a web of connections to big corporations unique in American politics—ties forged both as secretary of state and by her family’s charitable interests.” (James V. Grimaldi and Rebecca Ballhaus, “Hillary Clinton’s Complex Corporate Ties,” The Wall Street Journal, 2/19/15)

    “Those Relationships Are Emerging As An Issue For Mrs. Clinton’s Expected Presidential Campaign As Income Disparity And Other Populist Themes Gain Early Attention.” (James V. Grimaldi and Rebecca Ballhaus, “Hillary Clinton’s Complex Corporate Ties,” The Wall Street Journal, 2/19/15)

     

    FACT THREEThe Clinton Foundation Accepted Millions From Foreign Governments:

    Trump

     

    “Rarely, If Ever, Has A Potential Commander In Chief Been So Closely Associated With An Organization That Has Solicited Financial Support From Foreign Governments.” “Rarely, if ever, has a potential commander in chief been so closely associated with an organization that has solicited financial support from foreign governments. Clinton formally joined the foundation in 2013 after leaving the State Department, and the organization was renamed the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation.” (Rosalind S. Helderman and Tom Hamburger, “Foreign Governments Gave Millions To Foundation While Clinton Was At State Dept.,” The Washington Post, 2/25/15)

     

    FACT FOURThe Clinton Foundation Accepted Millions From Other Foreign Sources While Clinton Served As Secretary Of State:

    “More Than 40 Percent Of The Top Donors To The Clinton Foundation Are Based In Foreign Countries.” “More than 40 percent of the top donors to the Clinton Foundation are based in foreign countries, according to an analysis by McClatchy.” (Anita Kumar, “Clinton Foundation Limits Foreign Donations,” McClatchy, 4/15/15)

    According To The Wall Street Journal, While The Clinton Foundation “Swore Off Donations From Foreign Governments,” It Was Still Raising Millions From “Foreigners With Connections To Their Home Governments. “The Clinton Foundation swore off donations from foreign governments when Hillary Clinton was secretary of state. That didn’t stop the foundation from raising millions of dollars from foreigners with connections to their home governments, a review of foundation disclosures shows.” (James Grimaldi and Rebecca Ballhaus, “Clinton Charity Tapped Foreign Friends,” The Wall Street Journal, 3/19/15)

    While Bill Clinton Promised The Obama Administration To Stop Accepting Money From Foreign Governments, The Agreement Did Not “Place Limits On Donations From Foreign Individuals Or Corporations.” “Former President Bill Clinton promised the Obama administration the foundation wouldn’t accept most foreign-government donations while his wife was secretary of state. The agreement didn’t place limits on donations from foreign individuals or corporations.” (James Grimaldi and Rebecca Ballhaus, “Clinton Charity Tapped Foreign Friends,” The Wall Street Journal, 3/19/15)

    The Donors Have Personal, Familial, And Business Ties To Foreign Governments. “Some donors have direct ties to foreign governments. One is a member of the Saudi royal family. Another is a Ukrainian oligarch and former parliamentarian. Others are individuals with close connections to foreign governments that stem from their business activities. Their professed policy interests range from human rights to U.S.-Cuba relations.” (James Grimaldi and Rebecca Ballhaus, “Clinton Charity Tapped Foreign Friends,” The Wall Street Journal, 3/19/15)

    During Clinton’s Tenure At The State Department, Foreign Donors And Their Organizations Accounted For Between $34 And $68 Million In Donations And $60 Million In Commitments To The Foundation. “All told, more than a dozen foreign individuals and their foundations and companies were large donors to the Clinton Foundation in the years after Mrs. Clinton became secretary of state in 2009, collectively giving between $34 million and $68 million, foundation records show. Some donors also provided funding directly to charitable projects sponsored by the foundation, valued by the organization at $60 million.” (James Grimaldi and Rebecca Ballhaus, “Clinton Charity Tapped Foreign Friends,” The Wall Street Journal, 3/19/15)

     

    FACT FIVELast Week The Clinton Foundation Announced They Wouldn’t Take Foreign Or Corporate Money If Clinton Is Elected, But Other Charities Still Will Be Allowed To:

    Last Week Bill Clinton Said The Clinton Foundation “Would Only Accept Contributions From U.S. Citizens And Independent Charities” If Hillary Clinton Is Elected President. “The Clinton Foundation will no longer accept foreign and corporate donations if Hillary Clinton is elected president. … Bill Clinton said if Hillary Clinton wins the White House, the family’s foundation would only accept contributions from U.S. citizens and independent charities.” (Ken Thomas, “Clinton’s Foundation To Alter Donations Policy If Elected,” The Associated Press, 8/18/16)

    Other Clinton Charities Will Continue To Take Foreign And Corporate Donations Should Clinton Become President. “Big chunks of the Clinton family’s charitable network would be exempt from a self-imposed ban on foreign and corporate donations if Hillary Clinton wins the presidency, loopholes that highlight the complexity of disentangling her from the former first family’s myriad potential conflicts of interest.” (Annie Linskey, “Not All Clinton Charities Bound By New Set Of Rules,” Boston Globe, 8/20/16)

    These Charities Include The Clinton Health Access Initiative, The Alliance For A Healthier Generation And The Clinton Giustra Enterprise Partnership. “The most prominent of the exceptions applies to the Boston-based Clinton Health Access Initiative, which in 2014 accounted for 66 percent of spending by the Clinton network of charities. … They include the Alliance for a Healthier Generation, an entity cofounded by the American Heart Association and the Clinton Foundation, and the Clinton Giustra Enterprise Partnership, a joint venture between Bill Clinton and Canadian mining billionaire Frank Giustra.” (Annie Linskey, “Not All Clinton Charities Bound By New Set Of Rules,” Boston Globe, 8/20/16)

     

    FACT SIXThe FBI Wanted To Open An Investigation Into The Clinton Foundation, But The Effort Was Scuttled By The Obama Administration:

    The FBI And Department Of Justice Met In Early 2016 To Discuss Opening A Public Corruption Case Into The Clinton Foundation. “Officials from the FBI and Department of Justice met several months ago to discuss opening a public corruption case into the Clinton Foundation, according to a US official.” (Drew Griffin, Pamela Brown and Shimon Prokupecz, “Inside The Debate Over Probing The Clinton Foundation,” CNN, 8/11/16)

    Three FBI Field Offices Wanted To Investigate If Suspicious Banking Activity From A Foreigner Was Involved A Criminal Conflict Of Interest With The State Department And The Clinton Foundation. “At the time, three field offices were in agreement an investigation should be launched after the FBI received notification from a bank of suspicious activity from a foreigner who had donated to the Clinton Foundation, according to the official. FBI officials wanted to investigate whether there was a criminal conflict of interest with the State Department and the Clinton Foundation during Clinton’s tenure. The Department of Justice had looked into allegations surrounding the foundation a year earlier after the release of the controversial book ‘Clinton Cash,’ but found them to be unsubstantiated and there was insufficient evidence to open a case.” (Drew Griffin, Pamela Brown and Shimon Prokupecz, “Inside The Debate Over Probing The Clinton Foundation,” CNN, 8/11/16)

    Obama’s Department Of Justice Pushed Back Against Opening A Case. “As a result, DOJ officials pushed back against opening a case during the meeting earlier this year. Some also expressed concern the request seemed more political than substantive, especially given the timing of it coinciding with the investigation into the private email server and Clinton’s presidential campaign.”(Drew Griffin, Pamela Brown and Shimon Prokupecz, “Inside The Debate Over Probing The Clinton Foundation,” CNN, 8/11/16)

    The FBI Field Offices Were “Waved Off” By The DOJ. “Accusations that Clinton has committed crimes, and gotten away with them, have colored Republican campaigns for decades. They’ve picked up since the FBI announced that it would take no further steps to investigate her ‘careless’ use of a private email server after a year-long probe; they’ve gained more steam after reports that three (of 56) FBI field offices wanted to probe the Bill, Hillary, and Chelsea Clinton Foundation over a foreign donation but were waved off by a DOJ that had come up empty in a similar probe.” (David Weigel, “‘Lock Her Up’ Sentiment Comes To A Congressional Campaign,” The Washington Post, 8/12/16)

     

    FACT SEVENClinton’s Chief Of Staff At State Had A Deep And Simultaneous Involvement In The Clinton Foundation:

    CNN Headline: “Top Clinton State Department Aide Helped Clinton Foundation” (Drew Griffin, “Top Clinton State Department Aide Helped Clinton Foundation,” CNN, 8/11/26)

    It Was Discovered That Clinton’s Chief Of Staff At The State Department Cheryl Mills Went To New York In 2012 To Interview Executives For A Top Position At The Clinton Foundation. “A CNN investigation found that Clinton aide Cheryl Mills was involved in the Clinton Foudnation while she was also employed as Chief of Staff to the Secretary of State. On a trip to New York in 2012, Mills interviewed two executives for a top position at the Clinton foundation. The State Department said she was on personal time. Mills’ attorney says she was, doing ‘volunteer work for a charitable foundation. She was not paid.’” (Drew Griffin, Pamela Brown and Shimon Prokupecz, “Inside The Debate Over Probing The Clinton Foundation,” CNN, 8/11/16)

    “The Fact That The Aide, Cheryl Mills, Was Taking Part In Such A High Level Task For The Clinton Foundation While Also Working As Chief Of Staff For The Secretary Of State Raises New Question About The Blurred Lines That Dogged The Clinton As Secretary Of State.” (Drew Griffin, Pamela Brown and Shimon Prokupecz, “Inside The Debate Over Probing The Clinton Foundation,” CNN, 8/11/16)

    The State Department Has Been Stonewalling Congressional Investigators On This Matter. “The Senate Judiciary Committee, chaired by Republican Chuck Grassley of Iowa, has tried to get answers about Mills’ New York trip as well. Grassley sent Secretary of State John Kerry a letter in January asking the purpose of Mills’ trip. The State Department did not officially respond to the letter.” (Drew Griffin, Pamela Brown and Shimon Prokupecz, “Inside The Debate Over Probing The Clinton Foundation,” CNN, 8/11/16)

     

    FACT EIGHTSidney Blumenthal Collected $10,000 A Month From The Clinton Foundation While Providing Libyan Intelligence To Clinton:

    Clinton Wanted To Bring Blumenthal On Board To The State Department In 2009, But The Hire Was Turned Down By The Obama White House Because Of His “Harsh Attacks” In The Democratic Primary. “As White House chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel was the one to bring the hammer down on Sidney Blumenthal. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton wanted to hire Mr. Blumenthal, a loyal confidant who had helped her promote the idea of a ‘vast right-wing conspiracy’ more than a decade ago. But President Obama’s campaign veterans still blamed him for spreading harsh attacks against their candidate in the primary showdown with Mrs. Clinton last year. So Mr. Emanuel talked with Mrs. Clinton, said Democrats informed about the situation, and explained that bringing Mr. Blumenthal on board was a no-go.” (Peter Baker and Jeff Zeleny, “Emanuel Wields Power Freely, And Faces The Risks,” The New York Times, 8/15/09)

    Blumenthal “Earned About $10,000 A Month As A Full-Time Employee Of The Clinton Foundation” While At The Same Time He Provided Intelligence On Libya To Then-Secretary Clinton. “Sidney Blumenthal, a longtime confidant of Bill and Hillary Clinton, earned about $10,000 a month as a full-time employee of the Clinton Foundation while he was providing unsolicited intelligence on Libya to then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, according to multiple sources familiar with the arrangement.” (Kenneth P. Vogel, “Clinton Foundation paid Blumenthal $10K per month while he advised on Libya,” Politico, 5/28/15)

    • Politico Headline: “Clinton Foundation Paid Blumenthal $10K Per Month While He Advised On Libya”(Kenneth P. Vogel, “Clinton Foundation Paid Blumenthal $10K Per Month While He Advised On Libya,” Politico, 5/28/15)

    Blumenthal Was Added To The Clinton Foundation’s Payroll In 2009, “Not Long After Advising Hillary Clinton’s Presidential Campaign — At The Behest Of Former President Bill Clinton…” “Blumenthal was added to the payroll of the Clintons’ global philanthropy in 2009 — not long after advising Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign — at the behest of former president Bill Clinton, for whom he had worked in the White House, say the sources.” (Kenneth P. Vogel, “Clinton Foundation Paid Blumenthal $10K Per Month While He Advised On Libya,” Politico, 5/28/15)

    Some Clinton Foundation Officials “Questioned” Blumenthal’s “Value And Grumbled That His Hiring Was A Favor From The Clintons.” “While Blumenthal’s foundation job focused on highlighting the legacy of Clinton’s presidency, some officials at the charity questioned his value and grumbled that his hiring was a favor from the Clintons, according to people familiar with the foundation.”(Kenneth P. Vogel, “Clinton Foundation Paid Blumenthal $10K Per Month While He Advised On Libya,” Politico, 5/28/15)

    “When The Clintons Last Occupied The White House, Sidney Blumenthal Cast Himself In Varied Roles: Speechwriter, In-House Intellectual And Press Corps Whisperer.” “When the Clintons last occupied the White House, Sidney Blumenthal cast himself in varied roles: speechwriter, in-house intellectual and press corps whisperer. Republicans added another, accusing Mr. Blumenthal of spreading gossip to discredit Republican investigators, and forced him to testify during President Bill Clinton’s impeachment trial. Now, as Hillary Rodham Clinton embarks on her second presidential bid, Mr. Blumenthal’s service to the Clintons is again under the spotlight.”(Nicholas Confessore and Michael S. Schmidt, “Clinton’s Friend’s Memos On Libya Draw Scrutiny To Politics And Business,” The New York Times, 5/18/15)

    Blumenthal’s Work With Clinton Has Been “Wide-Ranging,” “Complicated,” And Embodied “The Blurry Lines Between Business, Politics And Philanthropy That Have Enriched And Vexed The Clintons And Their Inner Circle For Years.”“But an examination by The Times suggests that Mr. Blumenthal’s involvement was more wide-ranging and more complicated than previously known, embodying the blurry lines between business, politics and philanthropy that have enriched and vexed the Clintons and their inner circle for years.” (Nicholas Confessore and Michael S. Schmidt, “Clinton’s Friend’s Memos On Libya Draw Scrutiny To Politics And Business,” The New York Times, 5/18/15)

    “It May Be Difficult To Determine Where One Of Mr. Blumenthal’s Jobs Ended And Another Began.” “But interviews with his associates and a review of previously unreported correspondence suggest that — once again — it may be difficult to determine where one of Mr. Blumenthal’s jobs ended and another began.”(Nicholas Confessore and Michael S. Schmidt, “Clinton’s Friend’s Memos On Libya Draw Scrutiny To Politics And Business,” The New York Times, 5/18/15)

    “[T]he Clintons’ Past Does Provide Some Evidence That When It Comes To Friends And Politics, They Prize Loyalty Over All Else.” “Why didn’t Clinton do either of those things? Who knows. But, the Clintons’ past does provide some evidence that when it comes to friends and politics, they prize loyalty over all else.” (Chris Cillizza, “Hillary Clinton Is Defending Her ‘Loyal Old Friends.’ Here’s Why That’s A Mistake.,” The Washington Post, 5/19/15)

     

    FACT NINEThe Clinton Foundation Failed To Disclose $26.4 Million In Speaking Honoraria While Clinton Was Secretary Of State:

    Politico Headline: “New Clinton Speech Disclosures Reveal Foundation’s Take”(Josh Gerstein, “New Clinton Speech Disclosure Reveal Foundation’s Take,” Politico, 5/21/15)

    In May 2015, The Clinton Foundation Reported That It Has Received As Much As $26 Million In Previously Undisclosed Speaking Fees. “The Clinton Foundation reported Thursday that it has received as much as $26.4 million in previously undisclosed payments from major corporations, universities, foreign sources and other groups … The money was paid as fees for speeches by Bill, Hillary and Chelsea Clinton. Foundation officials said the funds were tallied internally as “revenue” rather than donations, which is why they had not been included in the public listings of its contributors published as part of the 2008 agreement.” (Rosalind Helderman and Tom Hamburger, “Clinton Foundation Reveals Up To $26 Million In Additional Payments,” The Washington Post, 5/21/15)

    “The Clinton Foundation Confirmed Thursday That It Received As Much As $26.4 Million In Previously Unreported Payments From Foreign Governments And Corporations For Speeches Given By The Clintons.”(Alexandra Jaffe and Dan Merica, “Clinton Foundation Didn’t Disclose As Much As $26M In Speaking Fees,” CNN, 5/21/15)

    The Disclosure Came As The Foundation Faced Questions “Over Whether It Fully Complied With A 2008 Ethics Agreement To Reveal Its Donors And Whether Any Of Its Funding Sources Present Conflicts Of Interest. “The disclosure came as the foundation faced questions over whether it fully complied with a 2008 ethics agreement to reveal its donors and whether any of its funding sources present conflicts of interest for Hillary Rodham Clinton as she begins her presidential campaign.”(Rosalind Helderman and Tom Hamburger, “Clinton Foundation Reveals Up To $26 Million In Additional Payments,” The Washington Post, 5/21/15)

    The Disclosure Of Speaking Fees Was “The Latest In A String Of Admissions From The Foundation That It Didn’t Always Abide By A 2008 Ethics Agreement To Disclose Its Funding Sources Publicly.” “It’s the latest in a string of admissions from the foundation that it didn’t always abide by a 2008 ethics agreement to disclose its funding sources publicly. That agreement, penned as Hillary Clinton became secretary of state, is certain to continue the headache that the foundation’s work and donors have become for Clinton as she makes another run at the White House.” (Alexandra Jaffe and Dan Merica, “Clinton Foundation Didn’t Disclose As Much As $26M In Speaking Fees,” CNN, 5/21/15)

    The Clinton’s Paid Speaking Honorariums Included Six Figure Speaking Fees From Foreign Companies And Wall Street Banks. “The paid appearances included speeches by former president Bill Clinton to the Nigerian ThisDay newspaper group for at least $500,000 and to the Beijing Huaduo Enterprise Consulting Company Ltd., an investment holding company that specializes in the natural gas market, for at least $250,000. Citibank paid at least $250,000 for a speech by Hillary Rodham Clinton.” (Rosalind Helderman and Tom Hamburger, “Clinton Foundation Reveals Up To $26 Million In Additional Payments,” The Washington Post, 5/21/15)

    Clinton Herself Delivered 15 Speeches On The Foundation’s Behalf, “Including One Address To Goldman Sachs And Another To JPMorgan Chase.” “But the new disclosure indicates that the former president has also spent considerable time speaking on the foundation’s behalf — 73 times since 2002. Hillary Clinton has delivered 15 such speeches, including one address to Goldman Sachs and another to JPMorgan Chase.” (Rosalind Helderman and Tom Hamburger, “Clinton Foundation Reveals Up To $26 Million In Additional Payments,” The Washington Post, 5/21/15)

     

    FACT TENSince 2003, The Clinton Foundation Has Spent More Than $50 Million On Travel:

    The New York Post Headline: “Bill Clinton Foundation Has Spent More Than $50 Million On Travel Expenses” (Geoff Earle, “Bill Clinton Foundation Has Spent More Than $50 Million On Travel Expenses,” New York Post, 8/20/13)

    From 2003 To 2012, The Clinton Foundation Spent More Than $50 Million On Travel. “Bill Clinton’s foundation has spent more than $50 million on travel expenses since 2003, an analysis of the non-profit’s tax forms reveal.” (Geoff Earle, “Bill Clinton Foundation Has Spent More Than $50 Million On Travel Expenses,” New York Post, 8/20/13)

    In Just 2011, The Clinton Associated Foundations Spent $12.1 Million On Travel. “The web of foundations run by the former president spent an eye-opening $12.1 million on travel in 2011 alone, according to an internal audit conducted by foundation accountants. That’s enough to by 12,000 air tickets costing $1,000 each, or 33 air tickets each day of the year.” (Geoff Earle, “Bill Clinton Foundation Has Spent More Than $50M On Travel Expenses,” New York Post, 8/20/13)

    The William J. Clinton Foundation Spent $4.2 Million On Travel In 2011. “That overall figure includes travel costs for the William J. Clinton Foundation (to which Hillary and Chelsea are now attached) of $4.2 million on travel in 2011, the most recent year where figures are available.” (Geoff Earle, “Bill Clinton Foundation Has Spent More Than $50M On Travel Expenses,” New York Post, 8/20/13)

    “The Clinton Global Health Initiative Spent Another $730,000 On Travel In 2011, While The Clinton Health Action Initiative (CHAI) Spent $7.2 Million On Travel.”(Geoff Earle, “Bill Clinton Foundation Has Spent More Than $50M On Travel Expenses,” New York Post, 8/20/13)

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Today’s News 29th September 2016

  • IRS Report Reveals How Obamacare "Spread [$11 Billion] Of Wealth Around"

    If folks don’t like their healthcare then they can give us all their money so we can give it to other folks.

    New IRS disclosures from the 2014 tax year reveal the specifics of how the so-called “Affordable Care Act” helped to facilitate Obama’s desire to, as he famously told “Joe the Plumber”, “spread the wealth around.”  To be precise, in 2014, Obamacare spread $11.2BN of wealth around, in the form of healthcare premium tax credits, with nearly 80% going to taxpayers reporting less that $35,000 of adjusted gross income.  Moreover, the average tax filer received $3,600 of healthcare premium support with those in the lowest tax bracket receiving over $5,500 per person.

    Equally disturbing is the fact that 8.1mm tax filers, those who elected to forgo health insurance, were hit with $1.7BN in Obamacare penalties…call it the “young and healthy tax”.  Ironically, 40% of the penalties fell upon people making less than $35,000 per year…the very same people that Obama apparently intended to “help”. 

    Here’s how the subsidies and penalties broke down by tax bracket (the original IRS table can be found here):

    ACA Penalties

     

    Of course, the real tragedy of Obamacare is that even if those 8.1mm young and healthy people wanted to buy health insurance, many of them have now likely been priced out of the market as premiums have soared and coverage “options” have vanished as insurers have pulled out of exchanges all over the country (something we discussed at length in a post entitled “Obamacare On “Verge Of Collapse” As Premiums Set To Soar Again In 2017“).  In essence, while the bill has seemingly “helped” the 3.1mm people receiving subsidies in the chart above it has trapped the 8.1mm young and health people with a permanent tax increase as they are now even less likely to buy health insurance after Obamacare has driven up the rates astronomically.

    But, of course, the Obamacare penalties will only get even worse from here.  According to The Washington Free Beacon, in 2014, uninsured individuals were required to pay the greater of either a flat penalty of $95 for each uninsured adult or 1% of their household’s adjusted gross income.  That said, the penalties are set to increase in 2016 to the greater of a flat fee of $695 or 2.5% of AGI.  According to the Congressional Budget Office, taxpayers are expected to pay penalties of $4BN in 2016 and $5BN annually from 2017 through 2024.

    Senator Tom Cotton (R-Arkansas), also pointed out the irony in the fact that Obamacare is now penalizing many taxpayers who can no longer afford healthcare simply because Obamacare itself has driven up premiums to such an extent they’ve been rendered completely unaffordable.

    “It’s not surprising that the Obamacare mandate numbers are worse than the administration first claimed,” said Sen. Tom Cotton (R., Ark.). “Obamacare penalizes taxpayers who can no longer afford insurance that Obamacare made unaffordable.

     

    “As Obamacare continues to unravel, things will only get worse,” Cotton said. “The legacy of Obamacare is skyrocketing premiums, unaffordable deductibles, the destruction of the individual insurance market, and tax penalties on Obamacare’s victims.

    With that, we’ll leave you with this blast from the past…

     

  • These Are The Best And Worst U.S. Cities For Rising Home Prices

    In its latest update looking at July home prices, Case Shiller pointed out that ” the housing sector continued to expand” at just around 5%, a pace that has held since early 2015.

    Once again that was an understatement: in 15 of 20 of the tracked metro areas, the pace of home appreciation over the past year was 5% or higher, or more than twice the pace of core inflation. And with rents continuing to soar across the country, in many cases at a double digit clip, not to mention exploding healthcare costs, one wonders just what the BLS “measures” with its monthly CPI update.

    In any case, for those lucky Americans who can afford to own a house instead of being stuck renting the New Normal American dream (where they are prohibited from peddling fiction as their annual rent increases by 10% or more each year), here is the breakdown of the top US cities with the highest and lowest home price appreciation.

    At the top, with annual price increases of between 9% and 12%, we find the usual west coast (and thus closest to China) suspects for the second month: Portland, Seattle and Denver, with the cities closest to Vancouver not surprisingly continue to see the highest Y/Y growth. What is surprising is that what until recently was a superstar in this category, San Francisco, has seen its annual price increase drop to just 6.0% from 9.3% in February.

    On the other end once again are Cleveland, Washington and, the worst performer of all, New York.

    Of course, one can debate whether the city with the fastest home price growth, in this case Portland, is “best”, for those who already own a house, or “worst”, for those who are trying to buy one and find it increasingly more unaffordable.

  • Obama Responds To Veto Override…

    Despite all his cajoling and fearmongery, President Obama lost his veto-override virginity today… and is not happy. Speaking at a CNN town hall this evening, the president said that Congress “made a mistake,” and, as The Hill reports, trotted out the tired old excuse that despte their noble intentions, this elimination of sovereign immunity could have unintended consequences.

    As The Hill reports, the override, the first of Obama’s tenure, is a major blow to the president and raises questions about his diminishing sway over Capitol Hill and foreign policy four months before he leaves office. While more stoic than his press spokesperson Josh Earnest’s earlier outrage, Obama’s calm demeanour during tonight’s CNN townhall hid his bitterness which was exposed by his carefully chosen – and well-rehearsed – words…

    the measure sets a “dangerous precedent” in international law that could have negative consequences for the U.S.

     

    “It’s an example of why sometimes you have to do what’s hard,” he added. “And, frankly, I wish Congress here had done what’s hard.”

     

    But, he conceded, “I understand why it happened. Obviously, all of us still carry the scars and trauma of 9/11.”

    Obama reiterated his longstanding argument that the measure carries serious unintended consequences, despite the noble intentions of its supporters.

    The president said the measure could erode the concept of sovereign immunity, leaving  American citizens and assets abroad vulnerable to lawsuits if foreign countries pass reciprocal laws.

    “The concern that I’ve had is — has nothing to do with Saudi Arabia per se, or my sympathy for 9/11 families,” Obama said.

     

    “It has to do with me not wanting a situation in which we’re suddenly exposed to liabilities for all the work that we’re doing all around the world.”

    As usual his words articulately obscure what he is really saying… between the lines… How dare Americans make me accountable for my actions?!

  • How The 'Deplorables' Can Save America

    Submitted by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    In my last article, “The Deplorables – Who We Are And What We Want,” I examined the basic philosophies that define what I call the liberty movement; the same group of Americans that Hillary Clinton admonishes as part of her “basket of deplorables.”

    It is important to recognize that only foolish progressives actually take Clinton’s claims at face value. Clinton seeks to characterize a large subset of conservatives as narrow minded when she mentions the “deplorables.” But, it is how she defines “narrow minded” that is the crux of the thing.

    When people like her talk about “racists,” they are referring to conservatives who want a secure southern border. When they talk about “Islamaphobes,” they are referring to people who want to stop Islamic refugees from being bused into the country without being vetted or philosophically and morally acclimated to our way of life. When they talk about sexists, they are usually referring to all males in general, because remember, social justice warriors (SJWs) claim that we are “subconsciously sexist,” even if we think we are fair to women. When they talk about homophobes, they are referring to Christian bakers who do not want to participate in services for gay weddings despite the fact that they should be perfectly free to refuse association with anyone at any time for any reason.

    What Clinton and social justice lunatics are really referring to when they use these attacks are those people who want to be free to think and do as they see fit as long as they are not violating the constitutional rights of others. No one in Hillary’s basket is actually narrow minded, but she and her cronies pigeonhole them as narrow minded anyway.

    Clinton is not actually worried about real racists, or real sexists or real homophobes. What she and the establishment are worried about are true conservatives, because our principles are not built on hate; they are built on reason and truth. It’s easy to defeat a movement driven by hate; it’s next to impossible to defeat a movement driven by truth.

    It is absolutely essential for liberty activists to understand that the goal of the establishment will be to redefine the core of our movement. If they can repaint us as hateful, then we can be beaten. If they can fool us into acting against our principles in the name of winning by any means, then once again, we can be beaten. If we are able to retain our principles and repel the propaganda, then we will NEVER be beaten. Even the greatest war machines on Earth can be crushed by the force of a principled rebellion.

    As my readers know well, I do not hold much optimism for America in the short term. Our economic status is dismal. In my article, “Brexit Aftermath – Here’s What Happens Next,” I warned that global markets would be experiencing a slow grinding decline into the U.S. elections. This is now occurring. It is my belief that international financiers and central banks will pull stimulus support from the global economy just before or just after the elections. I believe that the establishment will attempt to blame conservative movements for the fiscal crisis they created.

    By extension, and as I have been predicting for many months, I believe that Donald Trump will be allowed into the White House. Whether Trump is aware of this dynamic or not, I do not know. The point is, our fight is just beginning, and it has nothing to do with a Trump presidency.

    The U.S. cannot be saved from financial crisis; instability is a mathematical certainty. It is how we respond to this instability that will determine our success or failure. Here is what we “deplorables” must accomplish in the next decade if we are to rebuild America and defeat globalism.

    Put An End To Economic Harmonization

    Economic harmonization is nothing more than a globalist phrase meaning the socialist redistribution of wealth. Globalists and progressives will assert that capitalism is the cause of all our ailments. They will say it leads to an unfair allocation of wealth into the coffers of a select few through the “natural” evolution of corporate power. In reality, most socialist nations work side by side with corporations, and even the existence of the legal corporate model is owed to government interference in free markets. That is to say, there is nothing natural about corporations.

    It was western governments that fabricated special legal protections for corporations including corporate personhood and limited liability. Without government protection, corporations could not exist at their current level of dominance. Therefore, bigger government and more government intervention in free markets will likely only serve to secure even greater empires for the corporate elite.

    These empires can only be dismantled by removing government as a factor in free markets, and allowing true competition in business to return instead of corporate favoritism. As a part of this shift, the middle class must be allowed to thrive through innovation and production. Taxation designed to redistribute wealth only seems to harm burgeoning entrepreneurs and stifles their ability to use good ideas to compete with larger businesses and their superior capital.

    Economic harmonization will eventually result in equality — it will make everyone equally poor. Only a handful of elites will ever be able to pursue economic success within this kind of framework.

    The End Of Forced Multiculturalism

    We’re tired of Cloward-Piven strategies used by cultural Marxists to undermine western principles and heritage. The bottom line is, some cultures are completely incompatible and they should not be roommates. Are we racist for holding this view? No, we’re just being practical. One look at the scheisse-storm hitting Europe right now and only an idiot or a Leftist with an agenda would argue that mass immigration of contrary cultures is a good idea.

    Uncontrolled migrations of peoples from socialist nations into nations that desire free markets will only make the effort towards free markets impossible. Illegal immigration by people who only want taxpayer funded entitlements and that import their socialist ideals as they invade is counter to the health of a liberty-based model.

    Harshly theocratic cultures also will not be able to integrate into a society that respects individual freedom. Social justice groups assume that religious freedom requires us to remain apathetic in the face of unchecked theocratic immigration (as long as it is anything other than Christian).  But, potential immigrants and illegal immigrants do not have legal rights under the U.S. Constitution. Religious freedom has nothing to do with immigration.

    For example, fundamentalist Islamic culture does not mix with the traditional Western ideals of liberty and free market participation. Period.

    Leftists are willfully blind to the distinction. Globalists understand the problem full well and they intend to exploit it. Their goal is to import counter-ideologies en masse in order to annihilate the last vestiges of the West.

    Why? Because this is about eliminating the final obstacle to total globalization. They seek to wash out conservative and classical liberal thinking to make way for a collectivist system that outlaws sovereign philosophies as “barbaric.” It is not exactly an “ethnic cleansing;” more like an ideological cleansing of true conservativism.

    We aren’t going to allow that.

    This is why many in the liberty movement do in fact support a ban on all immigration into Western nations until the damage done by the multicultural cabal can be mitigated. Some may argue for a limited ban on the immigration of certain groups (including Muslims) and this is an issue where the “deplorables” diverge.

    I personally don’t know how such a selective ban could be enforced without an insanely large, intrusive and expensive immigration bureaucracy designed to investigate and weed out millions of people not allowed under such a law. A simpler solution would be to freeze ALL immigration for a period of time (perhaps 10 years or more).

    This would eliminate the need for the U.S. Citizenship And Immigration Services (USCIS). The $3.2 billion allocated to that entity could be spent better securing U.S. borders.

    Frankly, there is nothing wrong with denying citizenship to immigrants for a period of time. The extreme left acts as if open immigration into our country is some kind of human right. It’s not.

    A Less Inclusive Republican Party

    It is perfectly healthy to be discriminating against ideologies and people that are destructive to inherent freedoms. I remember after Barack Obama took office for a second term that the common argument by Democratic and Republican elites alike was that it was “time for the Republican Party to be more inclusive" if they ever wanted to win the White House again.  What that really means in translation is, it was time for the Republican Party to move completely away from conservative values and be more like the Left.

    In reality, the Republican Party needs to stop accommodating socialist and globalist ideals and be more selective in who its friends are, and who its leaders are. Either that, or the party needs to go the way of smallpox and die so that more honest political organizations can take its place.

    The Eradication Of Language Policing

    We “deplorables” have seen political correctness and social justice fear mongering turn our society into a simpering cesspool of terrified effeminate spineless men, deluded miserable vitriolic women who think they are men, and the rest of us who are supposed to walk on eggshells whenever the PC police are around while being sure to use the “proper pronouns.” I think not.

    I think instead, the deplorables are going to say whatever the hell we feel like saying. Why should we concern ourselves with the irrational feelings of others? Why should we censor ourselves just to satisfy the ignorant notion that language shapes environment? Language is irrelevant to our internal monologue. Changing the language is not going to change our souls. Thus, controlling it is pointless and only serves to oppress the public.

    We’re not going to refer to anyone by a gender other than what their genetics dictate. We don’t care if you wear make-up and a wig and a tampon. If you were born with a Y chromosome, then you are a man. Your personal freedoms do not include the right to force others to recognize you as a woman, a “trans,” a diva, a porpoise, etc. Your feelings do not matter. We are no longer going to participate in your gender role-play fantasies.

    Some of us may at times play with race related jokes and have fun at the expense of other groups. We might argue that women actually don’t make very good Ghostbusters or that movies pontificating about slavery are becoming extraordinarily boring. We will probably refer to illegal immigrants as illegal immigrants and stare at beautiful women like we have x-ray vision.

    Understand, there is nothing you can do to stop us, so you might as well spend your time doing something more constructive, like dropping out of gender studies and enrolling in a real college course.

    No More Recognition Of Victim Group Status

    For decades now it has become trendy for anyone besides white heterosexual males to blame all their failures on white heterosexual males. With all the gnashing of teeth over “white male privilege,” we might forget that the only groups with privileges under the law are victim groups. So much government preference is being given to these groups that almost everyone is now clamoring to categorize themselves as a victim in some sense.

    The “transgender” movement is the culmination of this insanity; primarily because there is no such thing as a transgender person except the extremely rare occasion when someone is born with both male and female genitalia. Gender is biological, it is not fluid. You cannot argue with nature about your gender. Laws that govern gender issues should follow biological standards, not hollow psychological standards.

    Today, anyone can simply say they are a victim group by virtue of what amounts to a mental illness. It is time to stop treating this mental illness as a civil rights issue. In turn, it is also time to stop government from designating privileges to groups based on arbitrary victimhood. Everyone today has equal rights under the law. Everything else should be based on merit. If you fail, then it is your own fault. To foster the notion in our society that the evil white man is to blame for all the inadequacies of every loser in the world is to do more harm to those losers than good. Instead, let them take responsibility for their failings so that they might actually strive to do better.

    Limited Government

    There are only a few reasonable purposes behind government — to defend the inborn liberties of the populace, to repel foreign invaders and to secure a sound monetary framework. That’s about it. But while we deplorables see these as limited powers and responsibilities, socialists and globalists see these as excuses for an infinitely expanding government behemoth.

    For example, you can build a functioning military based on the militia model, in which every able-bodied citizen rises to the defense of their community and nation in the event of attack. This would be a cost-effective and less intrusive model.

    Or, you can build a massive standing army with hundreds of bases around the world and a police state here at home, all funded by an unsustainable fiat money and debt system. This would be the big government model, which socialists argue is what government should do to fulfill its role.

    Government can also be used to force private associations in the name of protecting the "rights" of others. A Christian taxpayer might be forced to fund entities they oppose, like Planned Parenthood (which receives around $500 million in tax dollars per year). This is the problem with open-ended nanny government; the individual freedom to associate is violated in the name of protecting the victim status of others.

    This comes from a “fluid interpretation” of the Constitution and the role of government that allows expansion to be rationalized. To put an end to this would require we “deplorables” to assert a literal and limited interpretation.

    True Free Markets

    The establishment has spent the better part of the past 30 years trying to convince the world that globalism is a natural extension of the free market. It’s not. The fact is, globalism is a system thrust upon the people, not an organic evolution of economics.

    True free market philosophy would dictate that if a model is destroying the wealth standards of a society, that society would naturally abandon it. If a model is elevating corporations, which are a product of government charter and are artificially supported by taxpayer dollars, then this is not conducive to real competition. If a model is allowing those same government chartered corporations to export jobs while destroying any chance for smaller competitors to fill the void through unfair taxation and other laws, then this creates economic instability. Without government intervention, globalism would not exist, because no society with a free market would naturally seek to destroy itself.

    The “deplorables” want the end of all welfare, including corporate welfare and the concept of the “too big to fail” company. We want the end of government intervention in business and special favors for corporate elites. We also want the end of central banking and fiat debt based currency. It’s funny, but the mainstream media constantly accuses us of seeking an unfair world, but we are actually the only group of people working for a level playing field.

    This concept terrifies progressives and corporate elites alike because without a socialist welfare system and special treatment for victim groups and companies, all success would then rely on merit. This means, they would have to work harder than most, or be smarter than most or be more naturally gifted than most in order to be more prosperous than most. Take a look at the millennials permeating the halls of universities today — those that espouse socialist ideals –and you will find yourself struggling to identify a single person with exceptional merit or work ethic.

    Take a look at all the banks and corporate monstrosities that should have collapsed eight years ago due to terrible business practices. Under a free market, they would be failures, and rightly so.

    *  *  *

    As mentioned in my first article on the “deplorables,” these changes– which represent a redress of grievances over decades of American corruption –will not take place without years of struggle and sacrifice. Again, this is not about a Trump presidency or any other future election. This is about action on the part of regular men and women, average conservatives, everyday. This is about self sufficiency, localized economies, the return of individual producers, the refusal to comply with social justice-based laws and legislation, the return of community-based security rather than reliance on state and federal security, local efforts for border security, the punishment of criminal financial institutions, etc.; all of which will probably come at the cost of a fight with the establishment.

    While you are welcome to vote for whatever candidate you please, remember that central leadership is not the solution. Self leadership is the solution. We do not need a hero on a white horse. The future is in OUR hands. Only by the efforts of millions of liberty champions in large and small ways can America return to prosperity, and to freedom.

  • Obama Humiliated: For The First Time, Congress Votes To Override President's "Sept 11" Bill Veto

    Summary: US Congress, first the Senate and then the House, humiliated the president when it voted on Wednesday to override Obama for the first time in his eight-year tenure, as the House rejected a veto of legislation allowing families of terrorist victims to sue Saudi Arabia. The House easily cleared the two-thirds threshold with a 348-77 vote to push back against the veto. The Senate voted 97-1 in favor of the override earlier in the day, with only Democratic Leader Harry Reid voting to sustain the president’s veto.

    “We can no longer allow those who injure and kill Americans to hide behind legal loopholes denying justice to the victims of terror,” said House Judiciary Committee Chairman Bob Goodlatte (R-Va.).

    The White House immediately slammed lawmakers following the Senate vote.

    “I would venture to say that this is the single most embarrassing thing that the United States Senate has done possibly since 1983,” press secretary Josh Earnest told reporters aboard Air Force One, an apparent reference to a 95-0 vote to override President Ronald Reagan that year.

    The override was widely expected in both chambers, with lawmakers from both sides of the aisle characterizing it as an act of justice for the victims of the Sept. 11 attacks.

    The so-called Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism (JASTA) would amend current law to allow victims of terrorist attacks on U.S. soil to sue countries that are not formally designated as sponsors of terrorism — like Saudi Arabia.

    As reported before, the implications for capital markets should the House follow the Senate in overriding Obama’s veto, they could be dramatic: as noted earlier, the threat of the 9/11 bill passing has put on hold Saudi plans to issue its megabond, effectively putting even more pressure on the kingdom’s finances; alternatively as Saudi Arabia has threatened before, should the bill pass, it would (and may have no other choice considering its liquidity crisis) have to sell US reserves, among which billions in Treasurys and an unknown amount of US equities.

    * * *

    Update: moments ago the House also overrode Obama’s veto, meaning that as of this moment, the Sept 11 bill is now law.

    • HOUSE HAS VOTES TO OVERRIDE VETO OF SAUDI BILL, VOTE ONGOING

    This is the first time an Obama veto has been overriden by Congress.

    * * *

    Late last Friday, we reported that in a troubling development for all Americans, Barack Obama sided with Saudi Arabia when he vetoed the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act , better known as the “Sept 11” bill, allowing Americans to sue Saudi Arabia over its involvement in terrorism on US soil, passed previously in Congress, despite clear signs that the veto may be rejected by both the Senate and the House.

    Moments ago, that is precisely what happened, when the Senate voted overwhelmingly 97 to 1, to override President Obama’s veto of a bill letting the victims of the 9/11 attacks sue Saudi Arabia, striking a blow to the president on foreign policy weeks before he leaves office. The vote marks the first time the Senate has mustered enough votes to overrule Obama’s veto pen.

    Democratic Leader Harry Reid was the sole NO vote.


    As the Hill reported, not a single Democrat came to the Senate floor before the vote to argue in favor of Obama’s position.

    Obama has never had a veto overridden by Congress.

    Ironically, the White House promptly called the veto the most embarrassing action by lawmakers in years. What it failed to comprehend is that it was Obama’s veto of the Sept 11 that was the most embarrassing action by a US president, perhaps ever.

    Lawmakers don’t want to be seen as soft on punishing terrorist sponsors a few weeks before the election, at a time when voters are increasingly worried about radical Islamic terrorism in the wake of recent attacks in Manhattan, Minnesota and Orlando, Fla. Oddly enough, Obama had no problem with those particular optics.

    The House will take up the matter later on Wednesday, and Speaker Paul Ryan told reporters last week that he expects there be to enough votes for an override.

    As a reminder, the legislation, sponsored by Senate Republican Whip John Cornyn (Texas) and Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), the third-ranking member of the Democratic leadership, would create an exception in the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act to allow the victims of terrorism to sue foreign sponsors of attacks on U.S. soil.

    It was crafted primarily at the urging of the families of victims of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks who want to sue Saudi Arabian officials found to have links with the hijackers who flew planes into the World Trade Center and Pentagon. It passed the Senate and House unanimously in May and September, respectively, but without roll-call votes.

    “This is pretty much close to a miraculous occurrence because Democrats and Republicans, senators [and] House members have all agreed [on] the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act (JASTA), which give the victims of a terrorist attack on our won soil an opportunity to seek the justice they deserve,” Cornyn said on the Senate floor before the vote.

    President Obama warned in a veto message to the Senate last week that the bill would improperly give legal plaintiffs and the courts authority over complex and sensitive questions of state-sponsored terrorism. He also cautioned that it would undermine protections for U.S. military, intelligence and foreign service personnel serving overseas, as well as possibly subject U.S. government assets to seizure.

    Obama sent a letter to Senate leaders reiterating his threats concerns that the measure could put U.S. troops and interests at risk.:

    “The consequences of JASTA could be devastating to the Department of Defense and its service members — and there is no doubt that the consequences could be equally significant for our foreign affairs and intelligence communities,” he wrote in the letter, which was later circulated by a public affairs company working for the embassy of Saudi Arabia.

    For once, using threat as a negotiating tactic, especially when on behalf of a foreign sponsor of terorrism and one of the Clinton foundation’s biggest donors, failed to work.

    * * *

    The Saudi Embassy and a high-priced team of lobbyists it hired waged an intense campaign to persuade lawmakers to sustain the override, but it came too late. Surprisingly, the White House seemed to have recognized it as a lost battle and put in less effort, according to Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, who on Tuesday characterized the administration’s lobbying effort as zero.

    Senators who are worried about the risk posed by the bill to U.S. personnel in foreign countries huddled on the Senate floor Tuesday to discuss passing additional legislation to protect them.   These lawmakers acknowledged the 9/11 victims bill had too much political momentum to stop weeks before Election Day, especially after both chambers approved it unanimously. 

    “The focus right now is how can we over a period of time create some corrective legislation to deal with whatever blowback might occur,” Corker said. Ryan told reporters last week that he had concerns with the legislation but said he would nevertheless allow it to come to the floor.

    “I’m going to let Congress work its will because that’s what Congress does. I do think the votes are there for the override,” he said.

    The veto override is a big win for Schumer, whose home state bore the worst of the 9/11 attacks.

    “This bill is near and dear to my heart as a New Yorker, because it would allow the victims of 9/11 to pursue some small measure of justice — finally giving them a legal avenue to hold accountable foreign sponsors of the terrorist attack that took from them the lives of their loved ones,” Schumer said on the floor. He co-sponsored the bill when it was first introduced in December 2009 by the late Sen. Arlen Specter (Pa.).

    Schumer revived the bill last year by teaming up with Cornyn, a fellow member of the Judiciary Committee. They overcame an early objection from colleagues by empowering the president to pause a lawsuit against a foreign government if the administration proves good-faith effort to reach a settlement are underway. The administration initially wanted unilateral authority to stop a lawsuit regardless of the status of negotiations, something the 9/11 families rejected.

    Efforts to override Obama’s vetoes of legislation authorizing construction of the Keystone XL pipeline and a special budget package dismantling the Affordable Care Act failed earlier this Congress.  

    * * *

    Now we wait to see if the Veto is likewise overriden in the House, in what is set to be a historic humiliation for the outgoing Saudi American president.

    As for the implications for capital markets should the House follow the Senate in overriding Obama’s veto, they could be dramatic: as noted earlier, the threat of the 9/11 bill passing has put on hold Saudi plans to issue its megabond, effectively putting even more pressure on the kingdom’s finances; alternatively as Saudi Arabia has threatened before, should the bill pass, it would (and may have no other choice considering its liquidity crisis) have to sell US reserves, among which billions in Treasurys and an unknown amount of US equities.

  • Janet Yellen On The Fed Buying Stocks: "Maybe In The Future, Down The Line…"

    There was an interesting exchange during Janet Yellen’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday morning, when South Carolina Republican Mick Mulvaney asked Yellen if the Fed will openly (as opposed to indirectly via Citadel) buy stocks. Specifically, he said that “there’s been some attention in the last few months about the resent decision by the Bank of Japan to start purchasing equities and my question to you is fairly simple. Is the United States Federal Reserve looking at the possibility of adding the purchase of equities to its tool box as it looks at monetary policy?”

    This was her response:

    “Well, the Federal Reserve is not permitted to purchase equities. We can only purchase U.S. treasuries and agency securities. I did mention in a speech in Jackson Hole, though, where I discussed longer term issues and difficulties we could have in providing adequate monetary policy. Accommodation may be somewhere in the future, down the line that this is the kind of thing that Congress might consider, but if you were to do so, it’s not something that the Federal Reserve is asking for.”

    And there you have the apolitical Fed hinting to Congress all it would to keep the stock market propped up in perpetuity is a small change in the law for Yellen to lift the offer, or as Chuck Schumer would put it, “get to work Mrs; Chairwoman.”

    Also, not asking for yet, because we are certain that there was a time when neither the BOJ nor the SNB imagined they would have to officially intervene in the stock market to keep it propped up. Furthermore, as the WSJ notes, “Yellen’s tentative openness to changing the law suggests Fed officials have been giving a lot of thought to new ways to jolt the economy in an era of low inflation and low interest rates.”

    Alas, in a time when the Reuters writes that “any ECB scheme to buy stocks could total 200 billion euros“, to keep hammering the idea that central bank purchases of stocks are just a matter of time, we get the feeling that the spot Yellen envisions as being “somewhere in the future” is not that far off.

  • "When Hillary Gets Scared, She Plays The Russia Card"

    By Gary Leupp, Professor of History at Tufts University, originally posted on Counterpunch

    Hillary Clinton’s Campaign Against Russia

    George H. W. Bush’s unsurprising support for Hillary Clinton strengthens the alliance of careful, conniving warmongers (including both neocon and “liberal interventionist” camps), admiring former generals,  middle and upper-class “Clinton Coalition” African-Americans (including clerics and TV commentators like MSNBC’s awful anchor/DNC shill Joy Reid snarling first about Bernie as much as Trump, and now trashing Putin along with Trump), Wall Street donors, older women too driven by identity politics, masochistic and naive former Bernie supporters settling for “the lesser evil,” and miscellaneous communities of the confused.

    It is a rainbow coalition of everyone she needs on board when she starts bombing Syria—seriously bombing Syria, courageously doing so one-upping Barack Obama (who she thinks blew his opportunities to take out Assad in 2011 and 2013) and producing another regime change accompanied by her triumphant Tarzan yell. This time it will be: “We came, we saw, Syria died!”

    Hillary was, you recall, a leading cheerleader of the destruction of the modern Iraqi and Libyan states, and continues to justify those regime-change actions while bemoaning their aftermaths, which she blames on others.

    For someone doing so poorly in the polls, and exciting so little enthusiasm—barely edging over a buffoon whose main purpose seems to be to reveal to the world the depths of the U.S. electorate’s abject ignorance and moral depravity—Hillary can boast on the one hand that the Democratic Party platform is the “most progressive” in the party’s history (thanks to the Bernie supporters, whom she regularly acknowledges, pandering with little success); and on the other hand her candidacy is solidly supported by Goldman-Sachs and the neocons and the whole military-industrial complex. From left to right, such a big tent!

    Everybody else (especially, we’re supposed to believe, less-educated “middle-class” white men over 40) is for Trump. But (the Hillary camp wants to believe) with such high negatives among blacks, Latinos and women Trump can’t win barring some horrible failure of the good people to go to the polls.

    But polls are showing Trump and Clinton neck and neck, or even showing the billionaire leading, including in some key states. This brings out the worst, most dishonest streak in Clinton’s character. Her response indicates that she remains the eternal Goldwater Girl. Running scared, she resorts to the least creative yet tried-and-true ploy imaginable: Cold War-era style redbaiting.

    Never mind that there are few Reds in Moscow anymore, and that Russia is a thoroughly capitalist society posing no threat to the U.S.  Never mind that Russia like the U.S. has a multiparty democratic political system (rigged, like that in the U.S.) and like the U.S. is controlled by its billionaire One Percent (that by the way invests heavily in the U.S. and Britain). There is no ideological divide, and Russia does not head an international ideological movement.

    The basis for its deteriorating relationship with the U.S. and some of its allies is that Washington has steadily expanded NATO to surround the Russian Federation since 1999 (when during Clinton’s husband Bill’s administration it added Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary); wants to add Georgia and Ukraine to the alliance; and spends billions trying to influence elections or fund movements for regime change such as the one that toppled Ukraine’s elected president Viktor Yanukovych in February 2014.

    The U.S. press has virtually ignored one of the most important geopolitical developments of our time. NATO expansion has been a non-story. Russia’s reactions to it (including recent war games held on Russian territory, in response to the biggest NATO war games ever in Poland earlier this year) are invariably depicted as “threatening” to Europe. Vladimir Putin is personally vilified as a brutal dictator who imprisons and assassinates political foes and journalists and has ambitions to restore the Soviet Union.

    All of this is accepted without questions by cable anchors, coached no doubt by news editors who shape the packaging of the news. Instead of noting the obvious fact that NATO is by its very expansion provoking Russia, the mainstream press declares with a straight face that Russia is provoking NATO—by opposing its expansion!

    The reportage on Ukraine has been particularly bankrupt. Talking heads repeatedly refer to Russian “invasions” of the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine and Crimea that never happened. They methodically avoid discussion of the neo-fascist element in the post-coup regime and how its actions prompted separatism among Russian speakers in the east. Journalists for the top newspapers routinely cite unnamed “government officials” as confirming Russian responsibility for all manner of offenses, from shooting down planes to hacking U.S. emails, blissfully free of any need to provide evidence. This is why polls show Putin the most despised man in the U.S.

    The vilification is absurd, especially given the kid gloves treatment of much worse leaders in the U.S. camp. (Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan resembles Putin in many respects but the U.S. press ignores his repression, military aggression, aid to terrorists, and mass detention of journalists.) But the press generally echoes the State Department, to which it is sometimes literally wed (Christiane Amanpour). And the post-Cold War State Department and Pentagon have felt the need to posit a new Enemy in the form of a Russia that threatens its neighbors and (in Syria and elsewhere) supports horrible regimes.

    So when Hillary gets scared, she plays the Russia card. Her campaign has been doing it in several ways. It notes that Trump campaign staffers arranged the removal of a call to arm Kiev against separatists in the Republican platform, implying that this shows Trump’s support for Putin’s objectives in Ukraine (rather than, say, a disinclination to exacerbate the conflict and to support the Minsk Agreement).

    It notes that former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort also worked as a campaign advisor and lobbyist for Ukraine’s Yanukovich for over a decade, and implies that this connection explains the platform change. (As though there were something especially nasty about a professional political operative from the U.S. selling his services to a politician who won what everyone acknowledges was a “free” election in Ukraine in 2010. But Yanukovych, because he opposed NATO membership for Ukraine and decided to reject EU membership due to the austerity conditions it would impose on Ukraine, was considered “pro-Russian” by the State Department.  Ergo, Manafort must be a Putin agent. Such accusations forced him to resign as campaign manager Aug. 19.)

    The campaign responded to the devastating Wikileaks revelation that the DNC rigged the primary process in favor of Clinton against Sanders—a scandal serious enough to result in the resignation of Debbie Wasserman Schultz and other top DNC officials—by blaming the leaks on Russia! Even if someone in that country hacked the accounts announcing to the world how corrupt the U.S. political process is, what should it matter more than if the hacker was a high school kid in Florida? Because, the Clinton campaign echoed by the entire bourgeois media proclaims, Russia is trying to influence our elections!

    The media sometimes uses the term “bromance” and posits a soul-mate relationship between the Russian leader, who has in fact never met Trump nor said more than a couple sentences relating to him (in answer to reporters’ questions). He has called him “flamboyant” (which is true), not “brilliant” as the press sometimes reports. It’s common sense to imagine that he prefers Trump to the warmongering Clinton, who wants regime change in Syria, and more NATO expansion, and has preposterously compared Putin to Hitler. But Putin has in fact been diplomatically silent on the U.S. election. (RT TV has contrasted this silence to the active U.S. support for the reelection of Russian president Boris Yeltsin, a total buffoon—opposed by the initially more popular Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov—in 1996.)

    But Goldwater Girl Hillary wants to make it clear: she is anti-Putin, anti-Russian, while Trump is a Putin fan. (The press refers to Trump’s repeated “praise” for Putin, alluding to his occasional vague comments to the effect that Putin is sharp and popular. But my impression is that his references to Putin are largely allusions to his supposed high estimation of his own narcissistic and solopsistic self. Like the poet Apollinaire, Trump praises all who love him. And he is mercurial. Fawning generals could use these traits to affect his actual policies in power towards Russia. And recall Trump has boasted about being the “most militaristic” of candidates.)

    That the first woman president of the U.S. will be elected (as still seems likely, I think, although not with high confidence) might be brought to power by a coalition of self-defined progressives and war criminals like George H. W. Bush, whipped up in part by tired old Russia-baiting, is depressing. It’s depressing that 27 years after the end of the Cold War it’s still possible to exploit a Russian bogeyman to win support for hot war.

    That Hillary in power will try (and possibly) succeed in going to war once again, this time targeting Russia or its allies (the Syrian state, the Ukrainian Russian separatists), is frightening.  The electorate is malleable, its collective memory short. What should be universally acknowledged truths (the Iraq War was based on lies, produced horrible death and suffering, generated more terrorism that spread to Syria, etc.) are in fact not grasped adequately by the masses. If they were, how could anybody vote for hideous Hillary?

    Remember how the ratings of an unpopular (and actually un-elected) president named George W. Bush leaped from around 50% at 9/11 to 70% just before the invasion of Iraq. Weak, unpopular presidents are sufficiently motivated to study history as to realize that war brings scared people together, causing them to unite around you. While the good thing about this nationally embarrassing farce will be the election of a highly unpopular president (vulnerable to overthrow), the really, really bad thing is that president might provoke World War III with Russia.

    In that connection it might be worthwhile to check out the anti-Goldwater ad of the Democrats in 1964, raising this very issue. Fear, people, fear.

    * * *

    Gary Leupp is Professor of History at Tufts University, and holds a secondary appointment in the Department of Religion. He is the author of Servants, Shophands and Laborers in in the Cities of Tokugawa JapanMale Colors: The Construction of Homosexuality in Tokugawa Japan; and Interracial Intimacy in Japan: Western Men and Japanese Women, 1543-1900. He is a contributor to Hopeless: Barack Obama and the Politics of Illusion, (AK Press). He can be reached at: gleupp@tufts.edu

     

  • How Much Money Have Humans Created – A Visual History

    The dollar amounts are so staggering, that simply telling you how much money humans have created probably wouldn’t convey the magnitude. However, The Money Project's data visualization in this video, allows us to relate numbers in the millions, billions, and trillions to create the context to make it more understandable.

    Source: Visual Capitslist

    Starting With Context

    The median U.S. household income of $54,000 is a number that most people can relate to. It’s enough money to save up to buy a car, or maybe even a house depending on where you live.

    Multiply that income by eight, and that number is now big enough to count as being in the top 1% of earners. People in the “one percent” make at least $430,000 per year.

    Famous celebrities and businesspeople have fortunes that dwarf those of many “one percenters”. Actor George Clooney, for example, has a net worth of $180 million. Meanwhile, author J.K. Rowling is estimated to have a net worth of roughly $1 billion according to Forbes.

    Zuckerberg takes things to a whole new level. His net worth worth is $53 billion, thanks to the value of Facebook stock. Lastly, Bill Gates regularly tops the “richest people” lists with a wealth of $75 billion – though lately that number has been a little higher based on stock fluctuations.

    However, even the wealth of the richest human on Earth is not enough to get up to our unit of measurement that we use in the video: each square is equal to $100 billion.

    The World’s Money

    Some of the world’s biggest companies take up just a few squares with our unit of measurement. ExxonMobil for example has a market capitalization of about $350 billion, and the world’s largest public company by market capitalization, Apple, is at about $600 billion.

    The total of the world’s physical currency – all coins and bills denominated in dollars, euros, yen, and other currencies – is about $5 trillion.

    Meanwhile, if we add checking accounts to the equation, the number for the amount of money in the world goes up to $28.6 trillionaccording to the CIA World Factbook. This is called “narrow money”.

    Add all money market, savings, and time deposits, and the number jumps up to $80.9 trillion – or “broad money”.

    But that’s nothing compared to the world of Wall Street.

    Wall Street

    All stock markets added together are worth $70 trillion, and global debt is $199 trillion.

    That’s all impressive, but the derivatives market takes the cake. Derivatives are contracts between parties that derive value from the performance of underlying assets, indices, or entities. On the low end, the notional value of the derivatives market is estimated to be a whopping $630 trillion according to the Bank of International Settlements.

    However, that only accounts for OTC (over-the-counter) derivatives, and the truth is that no one actually knows the size of the derivatives market. It’s been estimated by some that it could be as high as $1.2 quadrillion, and others estimate it could be even higher.

    There are many financial critics who worry about the risk that these contracts pile onto the global financial system. With the sheer size of the derivative market dwarfing all others, it’s understandable why business mogul Warren Buffett has called derivatives “financial weapons of mass destruction”.

  • Libertarian Gary Johnson Has Another "Aleppo Moment"

    If the rest of the world was already laughing violently, watching the spectacle that is America’s presidential election, we wonder how it would react if it knew that there is actually a third candidate for the US presidency, one who can’t name a single foreign world leader.

    Sadly, that is precisely what happened today when during a New Hampshire townhall moderated by MSNBC’s Chris Matthews, libertarian candidate Gary Johnson had another “Aleppo moment” when asked who his favorite foreign leader is, as the clip below shows.

    It did not end there.

    Johnson continued, adding that Hillary Clinton would likely start a nuclear war if faced with a tough split-second decision. “I think she is going to press the button … She is going to be hawkish, she is going to be more hawkish in that role,” Johnson said. “I think that she is not going to air on the side of not being an aggressor.”

    The presidential candidate added that he would be the only candidate who could be trusted with the nuclear codes as president.

    “I think she is going to shoot. She is going to shoot. She is not going to be herself. She is not going to be perceived as weak. She is going to shoot,” he said later.

    And just to make it fair, former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld, Johnson’s running mate, said that Donald Trump is not to be trusted with the nuclear codes either, and pointed to the GOP nominee’s past support for countries like Japan and South Korea expanding their own nuclear capabilities. Weld said Trump would be better off running a laundry business than campaigning to become the President of the United States.

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