Feb 02

Today’s News 2nd February 2025

  • Escobar: The Chihuahua Energy Policy – It's A Gas, Gas, Gas
    Escobar: The Chihuahua Energy Policy – It’s A Gas, Gas, Gas

    Authored by Pepe Escobar,

    Let’s start with the tale of an Empire bragging to the wind.

    Mr. Disco Inferno orders OPEC and OPEC+ to lower the price of oil, because, in his mind, that may solve the war in Ukraine – as in forcing Moscow to the table because of dwindling energy revenues.

    That in itself summarizes the level of garbage being fed to POTUS by his cornucopia of acronyms passing for intel.

    Trump at Davos:

    “I’m going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil (…) If the price came down, the Russia-Ukraine war would end immediately. Right now, the price is high enough that that war will continue (…) With oil prices going down, I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately. And, likewise, they should be dropping all over the world. Interest rates should follow us.”

    Quite predictably, OPEC+ – basically run by Saudi Arabia and Russia – said Nyet. Apart from the fact they don’t care much about interest rates, on the energy front they’ll keep doing what they have planned to do, including soon decreasing production, but at acceptable levels.

    Standard Chartered, a major player, noted that OPEC has limited power to end the war immediately by reducing the oil price, with OPEC ministers considering this attempt at “strategy” as very inefficient and costly.

    So much for imperial diktats.

    The Chihuahua Strategic Victory Plan

    As highlighted before, the U.S. – via fracking – has enough gas for domestic consumption, but not enough to export en masse to the EU, because of liquification problems. That explains why even buying more American energy for exorbitant prices, the EU de facto remains largely dependent on Russian LNG – and non-U.S. sources – since the sabotage of the Nord Streams, unveiled in detail by Sy Hersh.

    Even at full capacity, the Empire of Chaos simply cannot deliver all the gas the EU needs; add to it virtually no investment in both badly needed extra exploration plus the infrastructure necessary to meet increased EU demand.

    On the domestic U.S. oil market, things do get positively Kafkaesque. U.S. trucking – a massive service industry – is dependent on imported Russian diesel, which needs to be mixed with Made in America oil in order to be suitable for trucks.

    Now cut again to Davos, which came and went barely registering a blip. Toxic EC Medusa von der Leyen told Davos that Europe had “substantially reduced”, and “in record time”, its dependency on Russian fossil fuels.

    Nonsense. Europe’s energy reality is bleak. Russian LNG from Novatek is currently priced at around $4.5–$4.7 per MMBtu. That’s more expensive than pipeline gas but still much (italics mine) cheaper than American LNG.

    Every industry pro from the Persian Gulf to Antwerp knows that Europe is now importing Russian LNG like it never did before. That’s it – or a dry death. In parallel, Russia will triple its LNG supply capacity by 2035. End result: whatever those “energy commissioners” in Brussels may come up with, Russia will remain essential when it comes to European energy security.

    There are no limits – even stratospheric – for Eurocracy stupidity, which corrodes the system like a plague. The Europeans not only have managed to shut off their own gas pipelines but are still “investigating” the Nord Stream de facto terror attack.

    End result: they are now importing more (italics mine) Russian gas, but by different means, from third-party suppliers, and paying a fortune.

    This is what can be described as the Chihuahua Strategic Victory Plan.

    U.S. Treasury sanctions Mr. Disco Inferno

    Russia’s LNG exports hit a record high last year, growing by 4% – and delivering 33.6 million tons. The monthly record was 3.25 million tons in December 2024 – 13.7% more than November.

    The largest Russian exporter is Yamal LNG: 21.1 million tons, 6% more than in 2023.

    Now cut to proverbial American rumble, in the form of Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources Geoffrey Pyatt ordering the “full termination” of Russian gas exported to Europe.

    To hell with what nations like Hungary, Austria and Slovakia may think – and do need.

    Pyatt told the Atlantic Council, “Today we are the largest LNG exporter in the world, and by the end of the Trump administration, we will have doubled what we’re doing today […] The decision has clearly been made in Brussels to get to zero [gas supplies from Russia] by 2027…and the United States strongly supports that goal.”

    Oh dear. Do these people even read the basic headlines?

    As reported by Politico, the EU is “devouring” Russian gas at unprecedented levels since the start of 2025, importing 837,300 metric tons of LNG just in the first two weeks of the year.

    The Ukraine transit deal was shut off for good – at least for now – starting on January 1st. The action now is on the maritime routes.

    Enter the U.S. Treasury with a new – what else – sanctions package against Russian oil trade, targeting up to 5.8 million barrels a day shipped by sea.

    As it stands, the global oil market is experiencing a surplus of about 0.8 million barrels a day. Oil prices for 2025 should remain at around $71 for a barrel of Brent crude (as it stands, it’s $76.2). Not exactly what Mr. Disco Inferno wants.

    So let’s assume these 5.8 million barrels of Russian oil – under stiff sanctions – would vanish from the global market. In this case we would have oil prices skyrocketing to an average of $150 to $160 a barrel. Once again, not what Mr. Disco Inferno wants: he vociferously promised – and keeps promising – a MAGA oil superpower, while lowering oil prices to max $50 a barrel.

    According to Russia’s 2025 budget, oil is priced at $65.9 a barrel.

    If the U.S. Treasury manages to work its magic and “disappear” with those 5.8 million barrels, Russian revenues would go up to around $88.2 billion, even considering much lower exports.

    High oil prices hurt American competitiveness. So somebody should tell Mr. Disco Inferno this U.S. Treasury gambit is actually more negative to Trumpian dreams than to Russia.

    Across Eurasia, Russia is sitting pretty, especially with its BRICS partners. Power of Siberia to China is on a roll, and Power of Siberia II should start operating by 2030. A boost on LNG exports to Iran is a done deal – especially after the signing of the strategic partnership earlier this month.

    This year a deal will also be signed in Russia to transport LNG to Afghanistan via tanker convoys. Next step will be Pipelineistan: perhaps, finally, the necessary steps to build a variant of TAPI (the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) pipeline, but with gas coming from Russia.

    The biggest customer for Russian LNG, apart from China, is of course BRICS partner India. It’s in the interests of Russia, Iran, Afghanistan and India to have a stabilized Pakistan – not an Islamabad remote-controlled by Washington, as in the current setup – for the final opening of Russian LNG routes to India. That will happen, in time.

    As for the European chihuahuas, enjoy your “strategic defeat” fantasies. Keep yapping – and buying Russian LNG.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/01/2025 – 23:20

  • Widely Used Chinese-Made Health Monitor Using 'Backdoor' To Send Patient Data To Chinese IP Address
    Widely Used Chinese-Made Health Monitor Using ‘Backdoor’ To Send Patient Data To Chinese IP Address

    They’ve hacked everything else in the U.S., so why would we be surprised to find out that patient health data collected by Chinese-made health monitors was being sent, via ‘backdoor’ to China. 

    Now China has access to Janet Yellen’s photos (god we hope there’s no nudes) and your blood pressure on a random Tuesday. 

    The U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) warns that Contec CMS8000, a widely used patient monitoring device, contains a backdoor that transmits patient data to a remote IP and downloads executable files, according to BleepingComputer.

    Contec, a China-based healthcare tech company, produces various medical devices. CISA was alerted by an external researcher and, after testing the device’s firmware, found unusual network traffic linking to a hard-coded external IP tied to a university, not the company.

    CISA discovered a backdoor in Contec CMS8000 firmware, enabling remote execution and full control of patient monitors. The device also secretly transmits patient data to a hard-coded IP upon startup, with no logs to alert administrators.

    Though CISA withheld details, BleepingComputer linked the IP to a Chinese university, and the same address appears in other medical devices, including a pregnancy monitor. The FDA confirmed the backdoor also exists in Epsimed MN-120 monitors, rebranded versions of Contec CMS8000.

    The BleepingComputer report says:

    On analyzing the firmware, CISA found that one of the device’s executables, ‘monitor,’ contains a backdoor that issues a series of Linux commands that enable the device’s network adapter (eth0) and then attempts to mount a remote NFS share at the hard-coded IP address belonging to the university.

    The NFS share is mounted at /mnt/ and the backdoor recursively copies the files from the /mnt/ folder to the /opt/bin folder.

    The backdoor will continue to copy files from /opt/bin to the /opt folder and, when done, unmount the remote NFS share.

    “Though the /opt/bin directory is not part of default Linux installations, it is nonetheless a common Linux directory structure,” explains CISA’s advisory.

    CISA warned: “Generally, Linux stores third-party software installations in the /opt directory and thirdparty binaries in the /opt/bin directory. The ability to overwrite files within the /opt/bin directory provides a powerful primitive for remotely taking over the device and remotely altering the device configuration.”

    “Additionally, the use of symbolic links could provide a primitive to overwrite files anywhere on the device filesystem. When executed, this function offers a formidable primitive allowing for a third-party operating at the hard-coded IP address to potentially take full control of the device remotely.”

    You can read more of the technicals on the backdoor here. Oh, and go ahead and keep plugging your personal data into Deepseek, we’re sure that’s just fine. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/01/2025 – 22:45

  • Former Federal Reserve Adviser Arrested For Allegedly Passing US Trade Secrets To China
    Former Federal Reserve Adviser Arrested For Allegedly Passing US Trade Secrets To China

    Authored by Eva Fu via The Epoch Times,

    Prosecutors on Jan. 31 arrested a former senior Federal Reserve advisor, accusing him of stealing trade secrets from the agency that could allow China to manipulate the U.S. market.

    John Harold Rogers, 63, worked for 11 years as a senior advisor for the international finance division of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the main governing body for the U.S. central bank.

    A federal indictment alleged that Rogers began working with Chinese conspirators since at least 2018. The Chinese handlers worked for the Chinese intelligence and security apparatus and posed as graduate students at a Chinese university, according to the filing.

    Rogers, in the collaboration, allegedly solicited trade-secret information that included proprietary economic data sets, China tariff deliberations, and briefing books for specific board governors. He also allegedly solicited internal discussions and forthcoming announcements from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a 12-member body consisting of the seven Federal Reserve board of governors, the New York Federal Reserve Bank president, and four of the remaining 11 Reserve Bank presidents that rotate on an annual basis.

    Such confidential information is economically valuable, prosecutors noted. By knowing in advance U.S. economic policy, such as federal funds rate changes, China can gain an advantage in selling or buying U.S. bonds and securities in a manner not unlike insider trading, prosecutors said in a Department of Justice (DOJ) statement.

    The Federal Reserve’s international finance division is in charge of basic research, policy analysis, and reporting of areas such as foreign economic activity, U.S. trade and capital outflow, and developments in international financial markets and institutions, the agency’s website states.

    Rogers is charged with conspiracy to commit economic espionage and with making false statements. A judge ordered Rogers to be held until a detention hearing on Feb. 4, a spokesperson from the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Washington told The Epoch Times. The charges carry a total of 20 years in prison on top of up to $5 million in fines.

    “Let this indictment serve as a warning to all who seek to betray or exploit the United States: law enforcement will find you and hold you accountable,” said interim U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Edward Martin, who President Donald Trump appointed minutes after taking office on Jan. 20.

    FBI assistant director in charge, David Sundberg, said his agency aims to protect U.S. national security interests.

    “The Chinese Communist Party has expanded its economic espionage campaign to target U.S. government financial policies and trade secrets in an effort to undermine the U.S. and become the sole superpower,” he said in the DOJ statement.

    Ed Martin speaks at an event in Washington on June 13, 2023. Martin is the current U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia. Amanda Andrade-Rhoades/AP Photo

    Meetings Under Another Purpose

    One of the Chinese handlers, identified in the indictment as co-conspirator 1, presented himself as a graduate student at China’s Shandong University of Finance and Economics who was interested in learning about sensitive U.S. fiscal policy to benefit the eastern Chinese province. He approached Rogers in May 2013 after creating an email that he used almost exclusively with Rogers and a handful of Rogers’s associates, according to the document. When Rogers shared that he was beginning a new project with a Chinese co-author on monetary policy, the co-conspirator allegedly invited Rogers to visit his research institute, offering to cover his airfare and hotel on the trip.

    Court documents allege that Rogers took up the offer and visited China twice in 2017, telling the co-conspirator, on his second trip, that he wanted to stay in the same hotel, saying “That place was great!”

    The co-conspirator purported to be working on an essay around May 2018 and requested information about the Federal Reserve’s policy measures and timetable, including its responses to China-related issues, the indictment alleges.

    Rogers emailed his colleagues for input, including U.S.–China trade issues, Federal Reserve staff’s thinking on exchange rates, and views on the market-clearing price of the Chinese currency, prosecutors said. He boarded a Shanghai-bound flight days after. On May 10, 2018, Rogers emailed one document his colleague sent him to the co-conspirator, the indictment shows.

    That September, the two began to discuss their meetings in more veiled terms, according to prosecutors.

    At Rogers’s request, they allegedly described those activities as classes so they would appear “legitimate in the eyes of the Fed,” prosecutors noted.

    Between then and February 2022, they discussed hosting about a dozen such classes in Chinese hotel rooms, according to message records the investigators intercepted.

    Some of these meetings focused on forecasting Federal Reserve policy trends. One of them, initiated in late November 2018, was titled “the trend of U.S. monetary policy in 2019,” according to the indictment. The Chinese co-conspirator, the filing said, asked for an “official fed statement and presentation from current FOMC members.”

    The “topic is perfect,” Rogers allegedly responded. He emailed a colleague for the “most straightforward way of accessing” Federal Reserve’s forecast data, as far back as 1994, the prosecutors said.

    Rogers allegedly held the said “class” on Dec. 10, 2018, with a man identified as “Jack,” before meeting the Chinese co-conspirator for dinner. On Dec. 20, 2018, a day after a Fed interest rate hike, Rogers allegedly wrote to the co-conspirator alerting him to the change.

    The Chinese co-conspirator’s response indicates Rogers had discussed the issue during the earlier meeting.

    “Aha, just like what we talked about at dinner,” the co-conspirator wrote, according to the court document.

    The pair talked about setting up three more “classes” in Shanghai and Beijing to cover “how the Fed will shrink the balance-sheet in 2019” and the U.S. economic situation in the first half of 2019 in the following months, according to the federal filing.

    On June 19, 2019, five days after Rogers flew to Beijing for one of the meetings, the Federal Reserve announced it wouldn’t cut rates but cut the word “patient” in describing the monetary policy outlook, a hint for future actions.

    “Same as you predicted!” the co-conspirator allegedly wrote to Rogers.

    Rogers allegedly obtained or attempted to access at least six trade secrets for Chinese officials, according to the indictment. Among them were a briefing book dated October 2018 titled “International Economic Topics”; summary and assessment of a European Central Bank announcement dated March 7, 2019, labeled sensitive; a sensitive June 6, 2019 document that contains briefing notes to the Federal Reserve board, and spreadsheets containing proprietary information from the board, according to prosecutors.

    The filing alleged that Rogers obtained the board governor’s briefing book, which contained a bold red warning “do not disseminate,” from a colleague by stating it was for his personal use as a “concrete example of ‘information flow.’”

    Against his colleague’s request, Rogers allegedly forwarded the document to his personal account, court documents note. Rogers, in October 2018, also allegedly sent internal files on trade policy uncertainty and U.S. investment to the Chinese co-conspirator.

    Rogers denied his China ties when the Federal Reserve Board Office of Inspector General investigated in February 2020. Asked in a recorded interview whether he had shared restricted board information with anyone outside of the board, Rogers allegedly responded, “Never.”

    He insisted that he had refused money from the Chinese co-conspirator, according to the indictment.

    “I set them straight. Don’t put this money in front of me,” he was quoted as saying.

    The pair’s connection apparently continued after that, prosecutors say.

    In February 2022, the co-conspirator messaged Rogers, inviting him and his wife to Shandong’s Qingdao City for a “class,” the court filing said.

    “All related expenses will be covered by us, and we can pay for the class,” the co-conspirator allegedly said.

    It’s unclear how or if Rogers responded to the message. But in August 2023, investigators said, Rogers emailed his former colleagues still with the Federal Reserve Board and asked for two internal Excel spreadsheets.

    In 2023, Rogers was paid approximately $450,000 as a part-time professor at a Chinese university, according to the DOJ.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/01/2025 – 22:10

  • One 21-Year-Old Who Worked A "Mass Scamming Call Center" In Dubai Blows The Whistle
    One 21-Year-Old Who Worked A “Mass Scamming Call Center” In Dubai Blows The Whistle

    Ever wonder who the sociopaths are you see in Netflix documentaries, catfishing people from the internet using dating apps?

    Well, look no further. Australia’s News.com.au profiled one such person this week, a young worker inside of a “mass scamming call center”. 

    The person, named “Beard”, said that he “fled war-torn Syria for Dubai” and was desperately looking for work. Thinking he landed an advertising role, he told news.com.au he found himself at a “bizarre office location in the middle of the Dubai desert where those inside tried to confiscate his passport”.

    He was eventually held captive and forced to scam people for a living, the report says. 

    Then he became part of a large-scale “pig butchering” romance scam operation, designed to swindle unsuspecting victims out of their money. News.com.au said this type of fraud devastates thousands of Australians annually.

    Beard worked night shifts, 12 hours a day, six days a week, pretending to be a woman named Annie to deceive victims. The scam center housed over 1,000 workers, mostly foreign migrants from Africa and India, all controlled by a Chinese-run syndicate. Workers were confined to the premises, only leaving to buy food from vendors serving the scammers.

    Victims, already catfished on dating apps, believed they were chatting with a woman who led a glamorous lifestyle. Beard’s job was to extract financial information and convince them to invest in cryptocurrency.

    “It’s not the important information I give them,” he explained. “It’s the important information I got out of them.”

    A real woman, half-Turkish, half-Ukrainian, was employed to take brief video calls to reassure victims they weren’t being scammed. “She had a line of people waiting for her to also talk to other victims.”

    Beard typically juggled 12 victims at once before handing them over to another team that finalized the scam, the report said.

    Despite working inside the operation, Beard never scammed anyone. Instead, he deliberately stalled conversations and warned victims about the risks of crypto investments.

    Inspired by YouTube scam-buster Jim Browning, he secretly sent videos and photos from inside the scam center. When he finally decided to leave, he tricked the scammers into letting him go by claiming he needed to return home.

    After he left, the scam center eventually shut down.

    “The joke is that these scams gave me an incentive to work for them,” he concluded. “Like I had a bed, Wi-Fi, electricity, and water all covered. If someone gets a legal job with worse conditions, they’d be incentivized to go back to the scam centers.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/01/2025 – 21:35

  • Trump's Big-Stick Strategy Will Make America Respected Again
    Trump’s Big-Stick Strategy Will Make America Respected Again

    Authored by Connor Vasile via RealClearPolitics.com,

    Despite his best efforts at saber-rattling, Colombia’s socialist president Gustavo Petro bent the knee and agreed to take in American deportation flights carrying Colombian nationals, after only a day of receiving tariff threats from President Donald Trump.

    While America and Colombia have been long-time partners in coordinating anti-narcotics efforts, newly elected President Trump hit a sore spot this past Sunday after he commenced deportation flights to the South American country. While world leaders reasonably expected Trump to execute his immigration policy the moment he stepped back into the Oval Office, this knee-jerk resistance from Petro only exposes the corrupt and unbalanced relationship the United States has had with Colombia for the past four years under the Biden-Harris administration.

    Under Biden, South and Central American countries had a free pass to send their citizens, freed criminals, and other migrants to America’s doorstep without repercussions. For the past four years, the Biden administration wrote a blank check to allow any and all migrants into our nation, without even a background check. This has led to a swelling of migrant gangs such as Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua, which has been busy at work committing violent crime – including murders and rapes – on American soil. Thanks to Biden’s “humanitarian policy,” countries like Venezuela have emptied their prisons and have encouraged migrants to pass through with the promise of attaining the “American dream” in the form of free cell phones, food, and even housing at the expense of the American taxpayer. There’s one issue: Trump is back.

    With U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) ramping up deportation efforts of violent illegal aliens, the countries which for so long have benefited from the Democrats’ open-border approach are now forced to address the migrant crisis and take back the citizens they’ve abandoned time and time again. Colombia’s Petro is one of the first to actively resist Trump’s efforts to repatriate Colombian citizens, announcing: “From today on, Colombia is open to the entire world, with open arms.” Petro also tweeted out: “The U.S. cannot treat Colombian migrants as criminals,” and “We are the opposite of the Nazis.”

    Trump responded, declaring that an immediate 25% tariff on “all goods” coming into the States from Colombia will be enacted; in one week’s time, the tariff would be raised to 50%. Petro responded in the like, announcing his own 25% tax on American goods, if Trump keeps to his word: “Your blockade does not scare me, because Colombia, besides being the country of beauty, is the heart of the world.”

    The Inconvenient Truth: Tariffs Are Effective

    Despite Petro’s poetic declarations, it appears he is all bark and no bite; within 24 hours of sparring with President Trump, Petro bent the knee and agreed to take in America’s deportation flights, ensuring that Colombia will, “facilitate the dignified return of the compatriots who were to arrive in the country this morning from deportation flights … [th]is measure responds to the Government’s commitment to guarantee decent conditions.”

    In fact, Trump’s tariff threat was so effective, Petro quickly agreed to all of Trump’s terms regarding facilitating deportation efforts; so much for being “open to the entire world.”

    Petro even offered his own presidential plane to pick up migrants in Honduras in a good faith effort not to disrespect American sovereignty again.

    This nimble victory on migration policy isn’t just a nod to how effective Trump’s diplomatic strategy is on the world’s stage. It also highlights a fear establishment politicians and the legacy media have been dreading: Protectionism works.

    While the talking heads of CNN, CNBC, NBC and others are quick to fear-monger and forecast the potential price hikes associated with hypothetical tariffs on foreign goods, they conveniently ignore one important aspect of announcing tariffs: leverage.

    For the past four years, America has been the world’s laughing-stock. Under Biden, we have experienced war in Ukraine, renewed Chinese efforts to invade Taiwan, the funding of Islamic terrorism in the Middle East, a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, and blatant spying on American soil. The world has taken American for granted, betting on a weak and ineffective commander in chief to do their bidding and continuously fund their morally questionable policies.

    Protectionism Will Be a Diplomatic Strategy, Not an Economic One

    With Trump back in the picture, the threat of tariffs shows that America means business after four long years of inept (and absent) leadership. While academics, “classical liberals,” and politicians decry Trump’s use of tariffs as “anti-democratic,” they fail to address tariffs in action. Trump needed only to voice the possibility of tariffs if Colombia did not take back its own citizens. Petro knows better than to spar head-to-head with Trump, as do most other world leaders; the threat of tariffs is sufficient to get countries to step in line. No actual tariffs need to be put in place if American foreign policy is respected. Colombia is the textbook case: Trump rescinded his order after Petro conceded.

    In short, tariffs signal to allies and adversaries alike that we are serious about our policies and expect others to pay their fair share. Where have we heard this before?

    China seems to already be following suit, having recently agreed to take back illegal immigrants in the wake of potential Trump tariffs.

    Protectionism is back, but in a different way: It will be used to remind the world that it should respect America for the billions of taxpayer dollars the federal government disperses every year to subsidize foreign industries. Countries can no longer profit carte blanche off of an American welfare state. If they want fair and free trade relations with the United States, they must do their part to collaborate on important foreign policy matters like the repatriation of their own citizens. They should look to El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele and his success for inspiration.

    Play fairly, or pay the price, it’s as simple as that. It’s what’s equitable in the end, anyway.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/01/2025 – 21:00

  • Mexico's President Claims She Has 'Plan A, Plan B, Plan C' In Response To Trump Tariffs
    Mexico’s President Claims She Has ‘Plan A, Plan B, Plan C’ In Response To Trump Tariffs

    Only a few days ago the president of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, was questioning with some skepticism whether or not Donald Trump would actually follow through on his threats of 25% tariffs on most Mexican-made goods.  “We don’t think it’s going to happen,” Sheinbaum said at her regular morning press conference. “And if it does happen, we also have our plan.”

    As of the 1st of February it appears that her doubts have been put to rest.  Donald Trump has reiterated that he is going to stick to his tariff plan and that it will not be incremental.  Around 80% of all Mexican exports go to the US, which means that the majority of their manufacturing base will be immediately hit with a drop in US retail demand.  Mexican business leaders say this will trigger a number of bankruptcies and higher unemployment in border cities.  

    Sheinbam claims in a recent press conference that she has a ‘Plan A, Plan B and Plan C’ in the face of high tariffs, but what does she really mean?  What would Mexico’s response be, specifically?

    First and foremost, Sheinbaum has threatened retaliatory tariffs on US exports to Mexico, her “Plan A”.  Around 15% of US exports end up south of the border, however, Mexico is far more export dependent than the US.  Only 10% of the US economy is based on exports while 43% of Mexico’s economy relies on exports according to the World Bank.  In other words, tariffs will hurt them a lot more than they’ll hurt America.  

    Like most establishment media economists, Mexico also argues that the US consumer will have to eat the inflation in prices that comes with tariffs.  This is assuming, though, that there are no alternatives to the Mexican goods being imported.  Car parts, electrical equipment, oil and gas, fruits and vegetables are a few of the biggest markets for Mexican goods.  The US produces close to 90% of the food that Americans purchase and Trump has indicated that energy may be exempt from tariffs.

    The Mexican President’s Plan B and Plan C are not so clear.  It is likely that Sheinbaum will seek aid from other Latin American governments, either to establish economic agreements to help lessen the pain of US tariffs, or as a means to put pressure on Trump through organized geopolitical sparring.  Most of these countries also have favorable trade imbalances with the US and none of them hold much international weight. 

    The real leverage that Mexico has in harming the US is through mass immigration, which siphons hundreds of billions in taxpayer dollars, untold billions in untaxed wages, untold billions in subsidies, hundreds of millions in foreign aid each year that’s meant to stop immigration – The list goes on and on.  Then there’s the inflation in housing and goods caused by the extra demand of tens-of-millions of illegals, along with the wage depletion caused by foreign workers taking around 30% less pay than the average American worker.

    Of course, Mexico has already been allowing illegal immigrants to flood into the US for decades, so it’s not much of a threat anymore.

    Mexico’s response to Trump’s tariffs will be to capitulate, the only question is how long will it take them to realize that this is their only option.  Sheinbaum behaves like most leftists/socialists in that she is often sarcastic, petulant and unruly in her rhetoric, but it’s all a show.  Once Mexico understands that their prosperity is entirely contingent on US benevolence, they will fold and then act like victims.  

    Victims of normal trade restrictions and normal border laws that they have violated for years while feeding parasitically off the US.     

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/01/2025 – 20:25

  • John Brennan's Protests To President Trump Lifting His Security Clearances Are Absurd
    John Brennan’s Protests To President Trump Lifting His Security Clearances Are Absurd

    Authored by Fred Fleitz via American Greatness,

    Former CIA Director John Brennan is angry that President Trump signed an executive order last week lifting his security clearances.

    The president took this action because Brennan was one of 51 former intelligence officers who meddled in the 2020 presidential election by signing a letter they knew falsely claimed a damaging press story about a laptop owned by President Biden’s son Hunter was Russian disinformation.

    Brennan indignantly asserted in an MSNBC interview that President Trump’s action was “bizarre” and said he misrepresented the laptop letter, claiming that based on their intelligence experience, the signatories were “deeply suspicious that the Russian government played a significant role in this case.”

    Brennan also said he needs to hold security clearances as a former intelligence officer so administration officials can consult with him on national security matters.

    Brennan’s objections are absurd and justify the President’s executive order.

    Brennan’s claims defending the laptop letter are patently false. The 51 former intelligence officers did not sign the letter as a well-intentioned initiative to warn the American people about a possible Russian attempt to influence the outcome of the 2020 presidential election. They knew this wasn’t true.

    We know this because one of the principal organizers of the letter, former acting CIA Director Michael Morell, testified during an investigation by the House Judiciary and Intelligence Committees about the letter’s purpose:

    “There were two intents. One intent was to share our concern with the American people that the Russians were playing on this issue, and two, it was to help Vice President Biden.”

    The House investigation also found that the letter signers were informed “of the intent of the statement prior to its publication, writing that the statement was meant to insulate Vice President Biden from serious electoral vulnerabilities created by his family’s influence peddling activities.”

    This means there can be no doubt the laptop letter was an attempt by the 51 former intelligence officers to misuse their intelligence careers to provide political cover for Biden from damaging information that could have cost him the election.

    They knowingly misled the American people to give Biden a talking point to discredit the laptop story during the final presidential debate, held on October 22, 2020.

    There can be no doubt John Brennan knew about all of this.

    Brennan also made the preposterous argument that he only held security clearances as a former CIA officer so he could be a resource for the U.S. government. He said in an MSNBC interview:

    “The only reason I still had a clearance, as I have had for years since leaving government service, was for the benefit of the government. It was to facilitate classified discussions, should the CIA or any agency need to consult with me or other former directors and members of the intelligence community.”

    I don’t doubt that the deeply incompetent Biden administration sought counsel on classified national security matters from disgraced former intelligence officers like John Brennan. However, there is zero chance that anyone in the second Trump administration will ever consult someone like Brennan on any issue.

    Brennan omitted the real reason he and most other laptop letter signers held security clearances after they left their intelligence jobs—to make money.

    High-level security clearances can be very lucrative for former U.S. government employees because they enable them to obtain highly paid contracts and jobs with defense firms and Beltway consulting companies that do business with intelligence and defense agencies. After intelligence officers retire, many retain their security clearances and return to their old offices as highly paid contractors.

    Since resigning as CIA director in January 2017, John Brennan has worked for or advised several defense and intelligence contractors.

    He served as Chairman of the Intelligence and National Security Alliance (INSA) and CEO of The Analysis Corporation (TAC).

    In addition, at least two signers of the Hunter Biden laptop letter, Michael Morell and Jeremy Bash, reportedly have made vast amounts of money working with “special purpose acquisition companies” (SPACs) created to cash in on surging investments by U.S. intelligence agencies in emerging technologies.

    Holding a U.S. government security clearance after an intelligence officer resigns is not an entitlement, as John Brennan has implied. It is a privilege that should only be extended when it is in the interest of the U.S. government. Former intelligence officers who use their profession to meddle in elections and mislead the American people undermine our democracy and the U.S. Intelligence Community. They do not deserve the privilege of holding post-employment security clearances.

    The Hunter Biden laptop letter scandal also has shed light on the corrupt practice of senior intelligence officers maneuvering to keep their security clearances to enrich themselves after they leave government service and not to promote the security of the United States. The Trump administration must investigate and reform this corrupt practice to ensure that only a limited number of former intelligence officers are permitted to retain their security clearances for urgent national security reasons and on a time-limited basis.

    Former CIA Director John Brennan and the other signers of the Hunter Biden laptop letter betrayed their country and their professions by misleading the American people to affect the outcome of the 2020 presidential election. They should not only be stripped of their security clearances but also barred access to all U.S. government national security buildings and facilities.

    CIA employees should never again bump into John Brennan in the agency cafeteria.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/01/2025 – 19:50

  • Australian Spy Agency Collected "Signals Intelligence" On China COVID Origins: Former State Department Investigator
    Australian Spy Agency Collected “Signals Intelligence” On China COVID Origins: Former State Department Investigator

    David Asher, a Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute and the lead investigator of the State Department’s Covid-19 origins investigation during President Trump’s first term, appeared on Sky News on Tuesday. Asher disclosed that Australian spy agencies had previously collected signals intelligence concerning the origins of the virus in Wuhan, China. 

    What Asher means by signals intelligence is the interception of voice, text, and other communications (e.g., phone calls, emails, and radio transmissions). Australian spy agencies conducted much of this in Asia, which the CIA later obtained. 

    “I never thought the intel picture based on human intelligence, which is what the CIA has, but it was reasonably clear based on the reactions of senior Chinese leaders that something terrible had gone wrong inside Wuhan, specifically inside the Wuhan Institute of Urology and perhaps also the Wuhan University and the CDC … they shared certain programs together,” Asher told Sky News host Sharri Markson. 

    He said, “I think there will be much more coming out – with CIA Director John Ratcliffe – who you interviewed previously – is adamant about declassifying information or releasing information that is already declassified. There is going to be signals intelligence and how much of that makes its way out – just trust me – there was a lot of it.” 

    Sky News Markson asked Asher: “What do you mean by signals intelligence that hasn’t come out yet?” 

    “Just picking up phone calls, picking up the emails, things like that … just messages between different people, I can’t comment on what they are, but it’s no secret we do this. Much of our collection is actually done in Australia, as you know,” Asher responded. 

    He continued: “So your government is fully aware, which is another reason why they are really puzzled and dismayed that the Australian government, which has the same information … as we do, has been so passive, especially given the fact that your Prime Minister originally came out and said that we had to have an investigation.”

    “It’s just sort of pathetic if you ask me,” Asher noted, who was referring to Western governments burying the Covid lab leak theory during the Biden-Harris administration. 

    Asher’s interview with the Australian media outlet came shortly after the CIA released an assessment identifying the Wuhan lab as the most likely origin of Covid. It only took a change in administration for this conclusion to be made public. Our view is that the CIA knew all along – with high confidence – about lab origins. Meanwhile, former FBI Director Christopher Wray stated in 2023 that the virus “most likely” originated from the Wuhan lab.

    Yet during President Biden’s first term, the radical leftists in the administration deployed the taxpayer-funded censorship blob to combat lab origins and maintain the official gov’t narrative that Covid originated naturally. 

    Recall Zero Hedge was temporarily banned from Twitter, Facebook, and Google over ‘Covid conspiracy theories’ (when we first suggested in January 2020 that the fact there was a Level 4 virus lab in Wuhan.

    Plus this.

    And this. 

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    Asher also noted in the interview that Biden’s failure to disclose the true origin of Covid to the American people “is another indication how much Biden was in the pocket of the Chinese government.” 

    Biden’s “financial interests with the Chinese are far greater than anyone ever understood. I think there’s going to be some sort of Department of Justice investigation related to that and as well as there is a congressional investigation going on,” Asher said. (hence the pardons)…

    This is what federal investigators are looking at… 

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    Asher’s full interview: 

    A mandate the American people gave Trump is transparency. Hopefully, that extends to Covid origins, ensuring accountability for those who funded and caused the pandemic so the world can move forward. Perhaps that’s why Trump is reportedly preparing to sign an executive order banning federal funding of gain-of-function research. 

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    . . . 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/01/2025 – 19:15

  • Military Strikes On Cartels Inside Mexico "On The Table": Hegseth
    Military Strikes On Cartels Inside Mexico “On The Table”: Hegseth

    Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

    Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth Announced Friday that all options, including military strikes against cartels on Mexican soil are “on the table.”

    Hegseth asserted that nothing is out of the question “if we’re dealing with what are designated to be foreign terrorist organizations who are specifically targeting Americans on our border.”

    The development comes after Trump issued an executive order on his first day in office to designate “cartels and other organizations as foreign terrorist organizations.”

    The order stated that “The Cartels have engaged in a campaign of violence and terror throughout the Western Hemisphere that has not only destabilized countries with significant importance for our national interests but also flooded the United States with deadly drugs, violent criminals, and vicious gangs.”

    Hegseth urged “We’re finally securing our border. We’ve been securing other people’s border for a very long time. The military is orienting, shifting toward an understanding of homeland defense on our sovereign territorial border.”

    “That is something we will do and do robustly. So we’re already doing it,” Hegseth continued, adding “Should there be other options necessary to prevent the cartels from continuing to pour people gangs and drugs and violence into our country — we will take that on.”

    “So the president will make that call. I’ll work with him in that decision making process. Ultimately, we will hold nothing back to secure the American people,” he emphasized.

    While campaigning, Trump repeatedly vowed to use the military against the cartels, suggesting that special forces could be deployed in Mexican territory.

    Border czar Tom Homan also recently stated that Trump intends to “use the full might of the United States Special Operations to take ’em out,” and “ take ’em off the face of Earth.”

    During a recent discussion with Joe Rogan, former Green Beret Evan Hafer, noted that if Trump does decide to go to war with the cartels he could opt to use Delta Force and Seal Team 6 to destroy them.

    “These dudes are not going to understand what the fuck is going on,” Hafer promised, adding “They are in for a world of ultra violence they’ve never actually felt before… we could just kind of like erase the problem in about two years. It’d be gone.”

    * * *

    Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/01/2025 – 18:40

  • Grenell Scores Big Win For Trump As Venezuela Releases Hostages, Agrees To Takes Back Migrants
    Grenell Scores Big Win For Trump As Venezuela Releases Hostages, Agrees To Takes Back Migrants

    Update (1815ET): The government of Venezuela has agreed not only to release six detained Americans, who arrived home Friday evening with Trump envoy Richard Grenell, the Maduro government has will take back tens of thousands of migrants, President Trump said on Saturday.

    “It is so good to have the Venezuela Hostages back home, and, very important to note, that Venezuela has agreed to receive, back into their Country, all Venezuela illegal aliens who were encamped in the U.S.,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social, adding that Venezuela would take back members of the Tren de Aragua transnational gang that has recently expanded into America from various Latin American countries.

    According to the WSJ, Maduro’s government will provide transport for its citizens to return.

    “This is good news for all who care about ensuring that Venezuelans with removal orders actually get sent home,” said Kevin Whitaker, a former U.S. ambassador to Colombia who also had served as deputy chief of mission in Venezuela.

     

    *  *  *

    More of the Trump effect: six imprisoned Americans have been freed by Venezuela after President Trump’s envoy Richard Grenell visited the country this week. They were released and flown home on a State Dept. aircraft on Friday.

    “Just been informed that we are bringing six hostages home from Venezuela,” Trump announced on social media. “Thank you to Ric Grenell and my entire staff. Great job!” This comes amid reports of some significant behind-the-scenes deal-making with Venezuela, as Washington demands the Latin American country receive back illegal migrants in the US.

    @Richard Grenell/AFP via Getty Images: Richard Grenell, 3rd-right, poses on board a plane alongside six freed US citizens.

    The six men were not named, but previously the White House had called on Venezuela to release what it dubbed “US hostages” or else suffer consequences. Grenell had reportedly met directly with President Maduro.

    At least nine people with American citizenship or residency had been detained in Venezuela, after authorities accused them of planning to kill President Nicolás Maduro.

    According to the NY Times:

    Relatives of three detained U.S. citizens said they had gotten very little information from the American government and had not heard from their loved ones for months since they had disappeared.

    David Estrella, 64, who worked in quality control for pharmaceutical companies in New Jersey, was among those released, according to his family.

    “After such horrible moments that we and David have suffered unjustly, we look forward to welcoming him home and taking care of him until he fully recovers and leaves all this unfortunate incident behind him,” said Elvia Macias, Mr. Estrella’s former wife and close friend. He had entered Venezuela from Colombia to visit friends, Ms. Macias said.

    Another reason this is such an unexpected positive development is that the United States has no diplomatic presence or embassy in Venezuela, and also has sanctions against the country and its top officials.

    As for what could be a factor in the release, Financial Times speculated that “a deal could involve an easing of US sanctions on Venezuela and dropping a US reward offered for Maduro’s capture in return for Caracas taking back thousands of [Venezuelan] migrants from the US, shipping more oil to American Gulf Coast refineries and releasing US nationals held in Caracas.”

    The jubilant freed Americans thanked President Trump in a phone call on the plane ride home:

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    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/01/2025 – 18:12

  • Trade Wars Begin: Trump Slaps Tariffs On Canada, Mexico And China; Triggers Immediate Retaliation
    Trade Wars Begin: Trump Slaps Tariffs On Canada, Mexico And China; Triggers Immediate Retaliation

    Update (10:20pm ET): Just hours after Trump unveiled double-digit tariffs on the three largest US trading partners, Canada and Mexico announced their own plans for retaliatory tariffs on the US.  Outgoing Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said late on Saturday that Canada will respond by placing 25% counter-tariffs on C$155 billion ($107 billion) worth of American-made products, with items including beer, wine, bourbon, fruits, fruit juices, vegetables, clothes, perfume, household appliances, plastic, and lumber subject to tariffs. Hilariously, Canada is going especially hard after alcohol produced in Republican states…

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    … although at least for now they haven’t gone ape with the previously suggested 100% tariffs on Teslas.

    Meanwhile, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum said she also instructed the economy minister to kick off a response plan that includes retaliatory tariffs against the levies.

    But since Trump’s orders also included retaliation clauses that would increase US tariffs if the countries respond in kind, that means we are now locked in tit-for-tat escalating prisoner’s dilemma, one where it progressively gets worse before it gets much worse. The new measures will be on top of existing trade levies on those countries.

    * * *

    And just like that, the Trump trade wars have officially (re)started.

    As was widely previewed yesterday, President Trump unleashed the first salvo of his latest trade war with tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China, the start of a wave of promised trade barrages against both foreign adversaries and allies.

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    Trump signed orders for the tariffs around 5pm ET on Saturday; they will go into effect on Tuesday, at which point they will likely escalate in tit-for-tat fashion until something breaks.

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    According to a fact sheet published by the White House, the tariffs are in response to the “extraordinary threat posed by illegal aliens and drugs” such as fentanyl, which constitute a national emergency under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

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    Perhaps the only difference from what was previously leaked is that energy imports from Canada will be spared from the full 25% levy and will face a 10% tariff. The White House officials said that was intended to minimize upward pressure on gasoline and home-heating oil prices.

    The orders also include retaliation clauses that would increase US tariffs if the countries respond in kind. The tariffs issued on Saturday will be on top of existing trade levies on those countries.

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    The order also revoked the so-called de minimis exemption for small parcels and packages, one official said, which will apply tariffs more widely to small shipments and impact e-commerce and online retailing. The US loses a tremendous amount of tariff revenue by using the exemption, one official said.

    The three targeted countries are the largest three sources of US imports, accounting for almost half of total volume.

    The decision is intended to have sharp economic impacts for the nations targeted; it will likely also impact the US depending on how much of the tariff-related price increases are passed through.

    Parts of the US, including the Pacific Northwest and Northeast US, are deeply reliant on electricity or gas flows from Canada. And oil industry advocates have warned against even a 10% increase in the cost of crude inputs into Midwestern refineries that have few near-term options to substitute with US supplies.

    For context, over 60% of US crude imports comes from Canada, so a 10% tariff on oil imports will lead to a prompt increase in the price of diesel which is the backbone of the US economy. Depending on the mood of the Fed on any given day, that may be seen as inflationary and lead to rate hikes in the near future.

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    Markets have been gripped by uncertainty as they awaited Trump’s decision on the tariffs and there are looming questions about how the levies will impact stocks.

    In the 10 days since Trump’s initial tariff threat on his first full day in office, the S&P 500 Index was essentially flat while equity benchmarks in Europe, Canada and Mexico were all higher. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index — comprised of companies that do business in China but trade in the US — jumped more than 4%.

    According to Bloomberg, automakers such as General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co. and Stellantis NV, which have global supply chains and massive exposure to Mexico and Canada, could see significant swings.

    Needless to say, Trump’s political opponents such as Jason Furman were quick to conclude that the market will punish what the Democrat economic advisor sees as bad economic and foreign policy.

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    Citing sources, Bloomberg writes that officials on the call Saturday justified the tariffs by citing the flow of fentanyl and other illegal drugs across the border, as well as illegal immigration. Sources added that Canada had been officially informed that the tariffs would be implemented on their goods on Tuesday.

    Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is expected to speak on the tariffs after they are implemented on Saturday. Canada is set to impose retaliatory countertariffs, the nation’s natural resources minister said in an interview on Friday.

    “We will focus on tariffing American good that actually are sold in significant quantities in Canada, and especially those for which there are readily available alternatives for Canadians,” Jonathan Wilkinson said.

    Former Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, who is among the candidates to succeed Justin Trudeau as prime minister, suggested hitting Trump ally Elon Musk directly by applying a 100% tariff on Tesla cars. That will hardly help de-escalate what is now officially the first trade war of Trump’s second (technically third) term.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/01/2025 – 18:10

  • Drone Horizons
    Drone Horizons

    Authored by G.B. Rango via Pirate Wires (emphasis ours),

    The stadium is aroar with eighty thousand raucous attendees and casts a short shadow in the midday sun.

    In the distance, peppered specks rise from nests unseen before gathering over the horizon like iron filings in a magnetic field.

    Small payload drones, hundreds of them, race balefully forward; the orchestrated swarm twists and folds in hivelike unison as it approaches its target.

    In response, nearer to the stadium, another group of drones ascends in concert and rushes to meet its hostile counterpart. The confrontation is swift, and casually anticlimactic, with only a few citygoers caring to notice the whir of propellers or the hissing and buzzing of the interceptors’ high-powered microwave pulses. The sky is clear once again, and the game goes on uninterrupted. This emergence and facile neutralization of drone threats is commonplace here, in a potential future.

    This cross-section of a shocking and indeterminate future, and those to follow, are meant to demonstrate, and warn of, the transformational nature of an imminent drone-age shift. The widespread adoption of UAV technology, piggybacked on the inexorable AI surge, will significantly repaint both international power relations and the daily lives of regular people in a manner that few understand. With foresight, or the lack thereof, we will shape the trajectory of inevitable drone developments that are going to permeate every pore of society — from agriculture and medicine to policing and national security. Considering the possible ways in which this strange tapestry of a drone-led future might be stitched together is essential to remaining ahead of the proverbial eight ball. The alternative, ceding control to the whims of fate and chaos and bellicose adversaries, is untenable.

    INFRASTRUCTURE & AGRICULTURE

    Infrastructure development will undergo drastic change with the advent of advanced and ubiquitous drone technology. Construction sites strangely devoid of human laborers — instead populated by powerful heavy-lift drones, nimble inspector craft, and bipedal robots — will be more productive, efficient, and safe than ever before. Gargantuan cranes with arms outstretched, fresh metal glinting through measured pivots, rotate powerfully over the earth. These monumental, industrial beings are autonomous, assisted by dozens of seeing-eye drones whose data feeds into a shared machine intelligence. Despite these eventualities, the demand for human capital in the construction industry will not necessarily diminish; in fact, it might even become a bottleneck. Small handfuls of foremen will be able to run entire projects on their own, aided by autonomous systems, meaning that the number of concurrent structures being raised will be limited only by regulatory obstacles and the availability of these human overseers.

    These scalable, autonomous construction sites remain the domain of the near future, with current drone technology focused primarily on the planning, inspection, and maintenance of infrastructure projects. Inspection of buildings, bridges, dams, and other structures is made safer, faster, and cheaper: no climbing, no unseemly scaffolding, no dangling humans. Drones can cut the cost of bridge inspections in half (a third of bridges in the U.S. currently need repairs) and reduce the need for construction rework by 80 percent. Issues like cracks, corrosion, and foundational weakness can be detected early by autonomous drones equipped with LiDAR sensors and ultrasonic probes, preventing small problems from snowballing into economic or human disasters. Sites will soon be equipped with their own stationed drones, autonomous and self-charging, that monitor infrastructural health continuously and provide project managers with real-time status updates.

    In the coming age, farms will not sleep when the sun goes down; drones will work around the clock to protect crop yields and monitor livestock. Rustic family barns sitting bare on flat plains will look like nocturnal beehives, with luminous agents approaching for payloads before dutifully buzzing back into the dark. These small flying machines will flit nonstop through thousands of crop-rowed acres, addressing issues like pest treatment, disease, and water shortage on the individual-plant level. UAVs equipped with thermal sensors will both identify and quarantine sick animals to minimize spread. Others will surveil the property for thieves, monitor perimeter fencing for repair needs, and ferry supplies — like coils of fencing wire, small fuel tanks, and medicine — across the farm. On a more macro level, specialized atmospheric drones engaged in air quality monitoring and pollution research will gather data useful for, among other things, the optimization of land management. In 2023, Pirate Wires interviewed Augustus Doricko of Rainmaker, a company using cloud-seeding drones to increase rainfall over targeted areas like farms and watersheds. The reanimation of long-dead sci-fi dreams such as this will be a not infrequent occurrence.

    Agricultural drones, leveraging techniques like precision spraying, have already reduced chemical usage by 47,000 metric tons and saved over two hundred million metric tons of water. Spot treatment by drones also increases yields, with one Washington farm reducing insect damage by 80 percent. Less conventional use cases, including herding livestock, picking fruit, and planting 40,000 reforestation seeds in a single day, are also on the rise. In locales where bees prove insufficient, drones are even beginning to serve as replacement mechanical pollinators. Falling variable costs and lower labor requirements will reframe global discussions about food scarcity, immigration, and agricultural subsidies, with smaller farms able to efficiently manage much larger plots of land and alter existing economic power structures. All told, the agricultural drone market is projected to reach $30 billion in annual revenue by 2030, radically reshaping food supply chains.

    EMERGENCY MEDICAL SERVICES

    Consider also the impact that drone technology will have on emergency medical services. Imagine interstate traffic that is bumper-to-bumper for miles, futile beeping coming from some handful of the thousands of cars stuck in an inescapable, inchwise stop-and-go. One of these, an ambulance, is carrying a heart designated for a pediatric patient who, after waiting months for an organ match, will likely die without it. The child’s new heart must arrive within four hours of procurement to be viable, the sooner the better. Seeing the unexpected delay, the ambulance team quickly packs the organ into a secure payload and dispatches a quadcopter transport drone to the destination hospital. In all likelihood, hospitals of the future will preempt this obstacle entirely: traffic-monitoring drones will have already predicted the jam and apprised the hospital of the situation, at which point a UAV will fly high above the chaos and deliver the heart directly.

    Over 46,000 organ transplants were conducted in the United States in 2023. Quicker transport times are associated with better patient outcomes, and the sort of major delay described above is not unheard of: In 2023, a pro-Gaza-ceasefire protest on the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge blocked all westbound traffic for four hours. Three UCSF organ transplant deliveries were significantly delayed, one of which had to be rerouted over the Golden Gate Bridge. One transplant surgeon at UCSF noted that two other large transplant centers in the Bay Area, Stanford and CPMC, were “probably suffering from the same issues as well.” While no known complications have been directly attributed to the protest, the proliferation of drone technology will completely eliminate the transport-delay risks posed by such scenarios. Only three transplanted organs to date have been drone-delivered, a kidney in 2019 and a pair of lungs in 2021, but this will soon become standard protocol.

    Remote and impoverished regions also stand to increasingly benefit from medical applications of this sort of drone transport technology: Zipline, an autonomous logistics company, partnered with both the Rwandan and Ghanaian governments to create large UAV distribution networks for blood, vaccines, and other medical supplies. The medical drone-delivery network in Rwanda alone has completed over 500,000 flights to date. India is already using drones to deliver medical supplies to areas in the Himalayas which are otherwise difficult to reach (between five and ten percent of India’s government-run primary healthcare centers are “nearly inaccessible” and prone to obstruction by natural disasters). Initiatives like these will expand globally to all similarly afflicted parts of the world.

    SEARCH & RESCUE

    In the relatively well-infrastructured United States, payload drones soaring over untamed terrain and conquering natural barriers to access are more relevant in search and rescue applications. A man lies at the bottom of a ravine, teeth gritted at the sight of wet, white bone protruding from his right shin. Looking up, he sees a sky crowded out by towering oaks. Listening, he hears only bird calls and the endless buzzing of insects. He knows that he is alone, and that he may remain that way for quite some time. His pack drone, a small but heavy-lift quadcopter that transports supplies between camping spots, soon notes that he did not arrive at the next checkpoint and sends for help. Hikers like these, lost or injured beneath densely forested mountain trails, will be quickly found by autonomous drone swarms, each unit communicating with the others to ensure that all ground is covered. Once the hiker is located, but before rescuers are able to arrive, drones will perform a condition assessment and rapidly retrieve any necessary interim supplies like water or bandaging.

    Maritime efforts will work similarly, with larger boats serving as bases of operation for smaller drone swarms that can expand radially outward and aid in the geographic process of elimination. Larger Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) with multi-day endurance will work in concert with these teams to survey vast areas of open sea for survivors and identify points of interest. The U.S. Coast Guard is already in the process of procuring these sorts of drones for both rescue and defense applications, awarding Shield AI, a company building cutting-edge drones (and the AI pilots that fly them), a $200 million contract for their V-BAT systems.

    Hurricanes Helene and Milton, both of which struck in the fall of 2024, serve as a relevant example of current drone involvement in the provision of American emergency services. Drones were pivotal in the preparation for and response to these disasters, collecting storm data pre-landfall and assisting with search and rescue in the aftermath. As reported by Commercial UAV News, Anduril’s Altius-600 and Blackswift’s S0 were both deployed alongside Saildrone vehicles to gather critical preparatory data from the storms while they were still moving over the ocean. In North Carolina, after the devastation brought by Helene, UAVs with thermal imaging capabilities assisted with the location of people in distress. Even private drone operators stepped up: Jeff Clack of Bestway Ag, an agricultural tech company whose offerings include DJI drones, took matters into his own hands and used “heavy-lift drones to deliver… supplies to about 100 people who were cut off.”

    FIREFIGHTING

    In cases of search and rescue involving fires, UAVs that are able to navigate through heavy smoke and withstand extremely high temperatures will assist with the location and safe extraction of victims. Dealing directly with the prevention and extinguishing of wildfires will also look very different in the drone-led future: careful autonomous surveillance of fire-prone land by sophisticated UAVs will allow firefighting teams to put isolated blazes out before they spread uncontrollably. Drones are already useful for the execution and management of controlled burns, an important preventive measure, and will become increasingly so as the technology develops and is more widely adopted. During crisis scenarios, understanding the positional movement and relative hot spots of wildfires via drone-captured, real-time data allows firefighters and governments to make better tactical decisions.

    Meanwhile, in the city, smoke billows from the southern face of a glass-paneled highrise, pouring outward into the sky through a window in its upper third. Rising up parallel to the structure are two thin shapes, each connected to a line which trails it like a string on a balloon. A small, unmanned helicopter rapidly enters stage left, already matching the elevation of the fire, and pauses for a moment before launching cryogenic projectiles into the blaze, recoiling with the force. The two hose-connected drones arrive seconds later and begin spraying fire-suppressing foam into the building’s opening. They then enter the site and search for survivors. The spread has been successfully contained, damage has been minimized, and no fatalities are reported.

    This scene, soon to recur in all developed metropolises, is nowhere near a reality in the United States. In China, however, leaps have already been made in the development and implementation of these sorts of drones. For example, in the Shaanxi province, three hose-connected drones were used to put out a multi-story building fire (whether or not this was a pre-ordained test situation is uncertain). The Chinese Aerial Scooter Drone can rise two hundred meters in thirty seconds before launching fire-suppressing dry-powder bombs. XCMG Group’s AP35/G2 UAV can carry a payload of over a hundred pounds, in addition to towing foam hoses, and has been put to use in both forest fire and highrise settings.

    In America? Fire-department use of drones is almost exclusively limited to the realms of surveillance and intelligence-gathering. In the wake of the recent Los Angeles fires, which have reportedly resulted in the deaths of at least twenty-four people and wreaked over $250 billion of economic damage, this lack of progress is even more concerning. Compounding this international delta is the fact that, across all “U.S. public-safety agencies,” ninety percent of drones in use are designed and manufactured by DJI, a company that was recently added to the Department of Defense’s list of “Chinese military companies.” While that number is from a 2020 survey, and steps are being taken to limit Chinese drone usage, the status quo remains largely unchanged.

    FOREIGN DOMINANCE

    The imbalance mentioned above is a microcosm of a much bigger issue: Chinese drone companies, for a host of regulatory and economic reasons, have dominated their American counterparts in both the U.S. and global markets. According to AUVSI, “companies based in China and subsidized by the Chinese government control 90% of the consumer drone market, 70% or more of the enterprise market, and 92% of the state and local first responder market.” DJI, far and away the largest Chinese drone company, was able to achieve this dominance through early market entry, favorable and asymmetric regulatory conditions, and funding in the form of substantial Chinese state subsidies and American venture capital.

    DJI had its first commercial breakthrough in early 2013 with the Phantom 1. The consumer and commercial drone markets were still nascent at this time, which meant two things: one, that DJI was in a very strong position to capture and retain market share, and two, that FAA regulations around drones were still largely undeveloped and unformalized. Consumer operators were effectively unregulated, with the FAA originally deferring to a measure from 1981. The now-archaic Section 333 exemptions allowed businesses to conduct basic commercial operations, and DJI products accounted for 71 percent of these FAA exemptions by mid-2015 (since over two-thirds of purchased consumer drones were actually being used by businesses for commercial applications). By 2017, DJI accounted for 72 percent of the global drone market.

    Chinese offerings struck a critical balance of quality and price that led to commercial viability; the American-made competition was too expensive, and much of the bleeding-edge American drone industry was focused on large, government-contracted defense UAVs that already preferred domestic supply chains and had less price sensitivity. In addition to the low materials and labor costs inherent to the Chinese manufacturing environment, China also provided the company with substantial state subsidies that, in combination with American venture capital funding from firms like Accel, Kleiner Perkins, and Sequoia, gave them a major competitive edge. (In 2015, China debuted its “Made in China 2025” initiative, a push which included significant funding for DJI.)

    REGULATION

    While all drone products sold in the United States are technically bound by FAA standards, American drone manufacturers are subject to continuous regulatory scrutiny throughout the entire design and development processes. Chinese drone-makers, for obvious jurisdictional reasons, are instead under the supervision of the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC). Bilateral aviation agreements between the U.S. and China allow the FAA to defer to CAAC oversight, with FAA standards only applying upon import to the United States (e.g. compliance with Remote ID requirements). This leads to significant asymmetric regulatory barriers for American drone companies, like lengthy R&D-approval processes, restrictive test-site access, and complex “type certification” requirements akin to those for commercial aircraft, that compound their preexisting disadvantages. In one instance, Matternet, an American drone company, was required to get a type-certificate “similar to what Boeing would be required to produce a 737.” By the time they could get this from the FAA, the technology of their specified drone was less competitive in the market.

    Now, in an attempt to minimize espionage risk and hamper the Chinese drone industry, America is increasingly turning to top-down protectionism. Successively restrictive versions of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), alongside waves of bans and procurement rules from the Department of Defense and others, are clamping down on the use of Chinese drones and components by federal agencies. The recent Countering CCP Drones Act, though it was not in the final 2025 NDAA due to concerns of economic fallout, would have put all DJI products on the FCC Covered List and effectively banned them. In a year, this decision will be revisited.

    These protectionist measures, however, are an incomplete approach and have side effects. The current enforcement and future expectation of restrictions on Chinese-made drones has sent businesses and underfunded public agencies scrambling. Many cannot afford the cost delta between American and Chinese products, forced to decommission entire drone programs overnight, while others endure months-long waits for American-made replacements. Unmanned Vehicle Technologies, for example, an American drone and robotics dealer, waited 142 days for an order of two drones from a manufacturer in the United States. In that time, UVT “ordered and received approximately 270 drones from Chinese manufacturers.” Restricting Chinese drones is only half of the equation: America needs to unleash its own drone-manufacturing industry.

    DELIVERED BY DRONE

    Drone delivery is one of the incredible fields of the future that is particularly limited by the ponderous pace of FAA rulemaking. Streamlined approvals for Beyond Visual Line of Site (BVLOS) operations, essential to the expansion of drone delivery services, are contained within something called Part 108. This piece of regulation, of course, remains stuck in bureaucratic limbo hell well beyond purported statutory deadlines. While certain companies have been able to attain individual BVLOS authorizations through arduous lobbying, with Amazon finally receiving approval in May of 2024, many companies still face significant regulatory barriers. The process is highly fragmented and unstandardized, with the scope of approved BVLOS waivers ranging from high-flying free rein to still requiring a line-of-sight observer.

    Amazon’s go-ahead will allow them to significantly expand their Prime drone delivery services — their new MK30 UAV offers “double the range and half the noise” of any previous Amazon drone. Zipline, mentioned earlier in connection with Ghana and Rwanda, is the biggest drone delivery service in the U.S. (over one million deliveries completed) and plans to cover 30 million people in ten states by the end of 2025. Wing, another large drone delivery service, hit 400,000 deliveries in January of 2025 and is expanding rapidly due to its partnership with Walmart. The world in which battalions of small servicecraft drop packages off on your doorstep, shaving delivery timelines even further, is just around the corner.

    POLICING & THE STATE

    For this reason, despite all of the bans, the continued dominance of DJI on price point means that local and state funds are still used to purchase predominantly Chinese drones: 80 percent of “law enforcement agencies that deploy UAS” use them. (On the state level, only Florida, Arkansas, Mississippi, Nevada, and Tennessee have passed resolutions addressing this.) The need for a strong domestic UAV-tech supply chain starts to become more obvious in this context. One of the most interesting current case studies in this area, offering a window into the future, is the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department’s (LVMPD) “Drones as First Responder” (DFR) program. The department is using American drone technology from companies like Skydio and BRINC for tracking suspects, documenting crime scenes, and conducting pre-interaction surveillance. This sort of real-time aerial intelligence significantly reduces response times and gives officers situational information that can prevent unnecessary casualties.

    The LVMPD follows strict FAA regulations that prohibit the weaponization of drones, a precedent which was set in part by Connecticut’s attempt (and subsequent failure) to lethally weaponize their police department’s drones. In November of 2024, the NYPD announced the launch of their own DFR program, reflecting a desire to replicate the successes of LVMPD and others. Drone-led policing capabilities will expand over time, with a continued introduction of autonomy, creating the potential both for vastly reduced criminal activity and, if we are not vigilant, authoritarian misuse.

    In one such potential future, artificial intelligence networks and the vast deployment of autonomous drones have resulted in what some might describe as an oppressive surveillance state. This semi-totalitarian government has, at great cost, completely eliminated all traces of civilian crime. Before the balance of control tipped irretrievably, however, society was thriving and higher-trust than it had ever been. Litter was collected by servicecraft mere seconds after hitting the pavement. The incidence of homelessness had dropped precipitously after national borders grew airtight and drug transports were unable to operate without detection. Children ran about the city streets past dark, parents made unafraid. Some wealthier and more skeptical families employed private drone protection, but strong-handed regulatory measures eventually eliminated all non-governmental drone ownership, citing the potential disruption of “peace and safety,” a progression which ended in the near-total disarming of society.

    NATIONAL SECURITY & WAR

    National security, of course, is of paramount relevance in the discussion of drones. The nature of war is changing faster than it has at any point since the post-World War II nuclear proliferation, and drones are one of the major cruxes of this change. It is essential that America not rely on China for any segment of the defense supply chain, let alone UAS design and manufacturing, technologies parallel to AI that will determine international power balances in the second half of the twenty-first century (and beyond). Already, in the war between Russia and Ukraine, we have seen the emergence of so-called “kamikaze drones.” Iranian Shahed-136 UAVs, which Iran themselves used to attack Israel in April of 2024, are Russia’s primary weapon of choice for this tactic — reported costs are low for the units, only $20,000 each. Russia hopes to produce six thousand of them by mid-2025 in newly constructed factories.

    Modified commercial DJI drones, strapped with explosives, are being used as weapons of war by both sides. Russia has been connecting fiber-optic cables to its human-operated drones, making them unjammable without requiring any advanced software or hardware. As one Ukrainian government advisor said, “This war is a war of drones, they are the super weapon here.” On January 14th, 2025, Ukraine launched an unprecedented series of deep drone strikes within Russian borders, hitting seven different regions and forcing “at least six cities to restrict their airspace.” Huge numbers of Ukrainian casualties are tied directly to drone-led attacks — and while drone swarms are not yet a part of this conflict, Ukraine predicts that this technology will enter the fray sometime in 2025 with the continuing integration of advanced AI into autonomous aircraft systems.

    When it comes to UAS built for national security and defense applications, however, the United States is far from asleep at the wheel. Palantir’s VNav system, for example, is giving autonomous drones the ability to navigate with military precision in GPS-denied environments. Using stored satellite imagery and onboard compute, the AI is essentially able to plot its real-time trajectory and avoid drift by “reading a map.” Anduril’s Bolt family of drones, announced in October of 2024, are “man-packable” autonomous air vehicles (AAV) that are fully modular, can track and strike targets, and are available in munitions-equipped versions. The Pentagon also recently awarded Anduril a $250 million contract for their Roadrunner drones, reusable vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) units, and Pulsar systems, Electromagnetic Warfare (EW) units with counter-drone applications that can either stand on their own or be vehicle-mounted. Larger, plane-like vehicles are also a critical focus: ULTRA, developed by AFRL’s Center for Rapid Innovation (CRI) and DZYNE Technologies, is a three-thousand-pound reconnaissance drone with over eighty hours of endurance, and a maximum payload of over four hundred pounds, that is already flying missions in the Middle East. The roster of advanced American autonomous drone hardware, and complementary AI software, is far too large to cover in any meaningful way here. This, of course, is an important signal about how seriously we are beginning to address the existential risks before us.

    SPACE & VISIONS OF THE FUTURE

    Integral to both national security and existential futures, and poised to catalyze the pioneering of sci-fi-like drone technology, is the final frontier: space. The applications of UAVs to the near-infinity on which our blue marble rests are early, but with time they will become both fascinating and essential. Things that are already happening, like drone-enabled launch site monitoring, the development of autonomous space-debris collection, reusable unmanned space planes like the X-37B, and the planned autonomous flight of NASA’s Dragonfly on a Jovian moon, are proof enough. Future possibilities are endless: drones of all shapes and sizes, putzing around space stations conducting fully autonomous maintenance and repairs. Reconnaissance drones spilling out from an opened hatch on a space-farer’s floating ship, falling into formation as they funnel toward the unexplored planet surface below. Only time will tell how far these evolutions can be pushed.

    Below the arcing of stars and spirited space-adventuring of generations to come, the skies are clear — save the birds and an occasional transport drone passing silently overhead. Towering bio-hybrid buildings draped with verdant ivory, attended to by swaths of assiduous airborne robo-gardeners, look as if they might have emerged in search of sunlight from the earth itself. A period of peace, less fraught with tension than its Dr. Strangelove-type predecessor, has settled upon the world. This is not for want of bad actors, but for their inability to find secrecy.

    The reconnaissance and intelligence operations of the Western nations are unrivaled; adversaries can say or do very little without it being known, and constantly evolving anti-surveillance drones make it very difficult for allies of these nations to be spied on. Emergent from the lattice of pseudo-satellitic drones, sub-orbital AAVs, and multi-tendriled UAS is an invisible, impenetrable dome of complete knowing. Totalitarian potentialities of such an advanced network are held at bay, at least in the States, by the relative affordability of, and legally protected access to, small UAS and counter-UAV systems. In select European nations, where private access to such technologies is being stripped, some claim to see shadows of authoritarianism seeping through cracks in the oracle bones.

    Early domestic drone-tech innovations were not controversial or difficult to fund, given their national-security-mandated priority, and the ballooning pie of economic productivity that resulted from their natural proliferation formed a positive feedback loop. Wider implementation of better autonomous hardware led to more prosperity, which led to more research and development, which led to better and cheaper UAS. Small teams of engineers were able to erect incredible structures, like the aforementioned stalagmitic wonders, with more agency than ever before. They cut private residences into remote crags, built public housing projects that were as efficient as they were elegant, and ensured that each creation was beautiful in its own right.

    The rise of autonomous farms greatly increased both crop yields and the percentage of arable land while eliminating unnecessary chemical exposure. Fresh produce became cheap and widely accessible. Open fields of soft green and amber, rustling with the light breeze, saw bovine droves herded by autonomous drones (voluntarily pursued, of course, by the enthusiastic prancing of cattle dogs). Resource extraction was faster, cleaner, and easier, which, alongside acceleration in the construction of small nuclear reactors, resulted in a preponderance of energy to power all of these initiatives. Crime rates across the nation were at an all-time low after law enforcement had increasingly partnered with preventive UAS, reducing the incentives of violence.

    Now, with all of this having come to pass, there seems to be an almost palpable optimism, a sense that things can change, and that we have significant say in how they change. A weird coalition between humans and their hive-minded autonomous aircraft, once an unnerving prospect, now powers the world forward in ways that not even the most visionary among us could have seen in a crystal ball. This, or something else entirely, lies ahead of us — with courageous optimism, we step into drone-filled horizons.

    — G. B. Rango

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/01/2025 – 17:30

  • 'Trantifa' Insurrectionist Who Went To D.C. To Kill GOP Leaders Was Inspired By Luigi Mangione
    ‘Trantifa’ Insurrectionist Who Went To D.C. To Kill GOP Leaders Was Inspired By Luigi Mangione

    Via Headline USA,

    A Massachusetts resident went to the U.S. Capitol to kill members of President Donald Trump’s cabinet was influenced by Luigi Mangione, the man charged with fatally shooting the CEO of UnitedHealthcare, prosecutors said in a court filing.

    Ryan Michael English / IMAGE: @exline_m45026 via X

    Ryan Michael English, who goes by Riley English, was arrested Monday and remained in custody after an initial court appearance on Thursday. English didn’t immediately challenge the pretrial detention, court records show.

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    English, 24, of South Deerfield, Massachusetts, was “on a mission” and “had been thinking about for this for a while because of Luigi Mangione,” prosecutors said.

    Mangione pleaded not guilty in December to state murder and terror charges in a Manhattan court.

    “I pushed that away because I was thinking like that is so stupid, that accomplishes nothing, that poor kid just threw his life away for like a minute of vengeance,” English said, according to prosecutors.

    English was arrested on weapons charges after approaching police at the Capitol—the same site as the 2021 homicide that killed Air Force veteran Ashli Babbitt.

    The unhinged ‘Trantifa’ activist claimed to have gone there in order to kill billionaire investor Scott Bessent on the day that the Senate confirmed him as Trump’s treasury secretary, according to a Tuesday court filing.

    Investigators said they found a folding knife, two homemade firebombs and a lighter in English’s possession.

    English also claimed to have traveled from Massachusetts to Washington, D.C., intending to kill other Republican political figures—Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and House Speaker Mike Johnson—and to burn down the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, according to police.

    English changed the target to Bessent, a former top financial adviser to billionare left-wing oligarch George Soros, after reading an internet post about his confirmation hearing, police said.

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    English, who claimed to be terminally ill, “wanted to do something before I go,” according to prosecutors.

    “The criminal conduct for which she [sic] is before the Court is not a momentary lapse in judgment; rather, it was a premeditated and calculated attempt to commit violence,” the prosecutors wrote, referring to English by female pronouns even as the Trump administration issued an order that federal employees discontinue a Biden administration practice of removing so-called preferred pronouns from their official emails.

    Defense attorney Maria Jacob said English only went to the Capitol “as a cry for help” and didn’t intend to harm anybody.

    “She [sic] was not aggressive when she approached the Capitol Police Officers,” Jacob wrote. “She never brandished any of the items as weapons and assisted police to retrieve the items on her person immediately.”

    Adapted from reporting by the Associated Press

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/01/2025 – 16:20

  • Ukraine's Most Vital Port City Rocked By Russian Missile Attack
    Ukraine’s Most Vital Port City Rocked By Russian Missile Attack

    The key and strategic southern port city of Odessa has throughout the nearly three-year long war with Russia remained in Ukrainian hands. This has been one of the country’s sole large shipping lifelines on the Black Sea and to the outside world.

    This means that if Russia ever sought to besiege or take the city and its vital large port, the proverbial writing would immediately be on the wall for Kiev, as it would face devastating economic blockade. Throughout the conflict, Moscow has sporadically attacked Odessa, apparently reserving such strikes as severe punishment in response to growing missile and drone attacks on Russian territory.

    This has happened again Friday evening, as a large Russian missile attack hit the center of the southern Ukrainian city, wounding at least seven people. Several historic buildings at the city center were also damaged. Such large-scale attacks on Odessa remain rare.

    Illustrative: earlier Russian attack on Odessa port from 2022.

    “Currently, seven people are known to have been injured in the attack by Russian terrorists on the historical center of Odesa,” the regional Governor Oleh Kiper stated, revealing that all are in “moderate” condition in area hospitals.

    “There is a lot of damage and destruction in the UNESCO-protected area,” the city’s mayor also noted. “As a result of the explosions, a number of historical monuments, including the Literary, Historical and Local Lore, Archaeological Museums, Museum of Western and Eastern Art, and the Philharmonic, have had their windows smashed and their facades damaged.”

    Surprisingly and thankfully, the large missile barrage resulted in no deaths. However, Norwegian diplomats may have been among the injured in the city.

    “Among the people who were at the epicenter of the attack were Norwegian diplomatic representatives,” President Zelensky said, condemning what he called “absolutely deliberate attack by Russian terrorists.”

    Russian military bloggers have meanwhile suggested that foreign military specialists were staying in the hotel, and that the strikes were primarily targeting these foreign entities. They are alleging that Norwegian military advisors were among them.

    The Bristol hotel in Odesa was damaged in Friday’s attack, via Telegram.

    During the spring of last year, Elon Musk featured Odessa while commenting on what’s at stake for Ukraine, and why Kiev must quickly enter negotiations to salvage peace.

    “There is no chance of Russia taking all of Ukraine, as the local resistance would be extreme in the west, but Russia will certainly gain more land than they have today,” Musk wrote on X last March.

    “The longer the war goes on, the more territory Russia will gain until they hit the Dnepr, which is tough to overcome. However, if the war lasts long enough, Odessa will fall too,” the billionaire SpaceX founder continued.

    He concluded, “Whether Ukraine loses all access to the Black Sea or not is, in my view, the real remaining question. I recommend a negotiated settlement before that happens.”

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    And all of this remains truer than ever today, especially as Kiev comes under new pressure to get serious about talks by the new Trump administration. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/01/2025 – 15:45

  • This DNC Clip Shows Why Democrats Will Keep Losing…
    This DNC Clip Shows Why Democrats Will Keep Losing…

    Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

    During the Democratic National Committee’s final chair candidate forum in DC, every single candidate to take over the chair agreed that Kamala Harris lost the election to Donald Trump because of “racism and misogyny.”

    MSNBC host Jonathan Capehart asked who “believes that racism and misogyny played a role in Vice President Harris’s defeat,” and every candidate quickly raised their hand in agreement.

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    No one dared to go against the orthodoxy. 

    The unanimous show of hands prompted the audience to laugh and Capehart to quip “That’s good, you all passed.”

    It was basically an acknowledgement that in order to head up the DNC you have to adopt the make believe bubble world Party narrative that anyone who disagrees with Democratic policy is racist.

    They’re still pretending that Kamala Harris was a viable and capable candidate when they all know she was the worst ever.

    Respondents to the clip on X noted how this shows they’ve learned nothing and are not about to evolve their positions.

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    They’re completely out of touch with Americans.

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    The DNC chair election will be held at the party’s winter meeting in National Harbor, Maryland, on Saturday.

    *  *  *

    Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/01/2025 – 15:10

  • "It's Like A Switch Was Flipped": Border Encounters Plummet 94% Under Trump
    “It’s Like A Switch Was Flipped”: Border Encounters Plummet 94% Under Trump

    Since President Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, illegal alien encounters at the southern US border have plummeted an average of 94% during his first 9 days, compared to President Biden’s last 19 days in office.

    Screenshot, Truth Social

    https://truthsocial.com/embed.jsDuring Trump’s first 9 days in office, after new border measures were implemented, there were an average of 126 daily encounters at the border vs. 2,087 per day during the last 2.5 weeks of the Biden administration.

    As Rasmussen’s Mark Mitchell put it last week, “It’s like a switch was flipped.“

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsDuring his 2024 campaign, Trump vowed to crack down on illegal immigration by continuing construction on the border wall, conducting the largest mass deportation in US history, slapping tariffs on Canada and Mexico until they control the situation from their end, and increasing penalties for illegal aliens.

    To that end, there were more than 3,500 illegal immigrants who were arrested during Trump’s first week in office, including over 1,100 in a single day.

    As American Greatness notes further, on Wednesday, shortly before signing the Laken Riley Act into law, the 45th and 47th President announced his intention to send 30,000 of the most dangerous criminal illegals to Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.

    The Laken Riley Act, named after the 22-year-old Georgia nursing student who was murdered by a Venezuelan illegal, is the first bill signed into law during President Trump’s second term. It gives federal immigration authorities broader power to arrest illegals who commit dangerous crimes, including drunk driving and assaulting police officers.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/01/2025 – 14:35

  • Syria's Al-Qaeda Branch Dissolves, Says Goals Completed By Regime Change
    Syria’s Al-Qaeda Branch Dissolves, Says Goals Completed By Regime Change

    Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

    The Salafi jihadist group Hurras al-Din, Syria’s official al-Qaeda affiliate, announced this week that it was dissolving, saying its goals were complete following the regime change that ousted former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

    “[T]he sons of the Al-Qaeda Jihad organization rushed to support the people of the Levant and assist them in removing injustice from them until God permitted this Sunni Muslim people to triumph over one of the most unjust tyrants of the modern era,” Hurras al-Din said in a statement.

    Masked terrorists in Syria. via Getty Images

    The group said al-Qaeda had ordered it to dissolve. “In light of these developments on the Levantine scene, and by an emir’s decision from the general command of al-Qaeda in the Levant organization, we announce to our Muslim nation and to the Sunnis in the Levant the dissolution of the Guardians of Religion Organization (Hurras al-Din),” the group said.

    Hurras al-Din formed in 2018 as an offshoot of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the militant group that led the offensive against Assad and now rules Syria. HTS was previously the official al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria when it was known as the al-Nusra Front, but it rebranded in 2016 to gain international support.

    Over the years, there have been tensions between HTS and Hurras al-Din, which were both based in Syria’s northwest Idlib before HTS took Damascus. In 2020, HTS began arresting some senior members of Hurras al-Din. The US had also waged a drone war against Hurras al-Din and bombed them in Idlib as recently as August 2024.

    Hurras al-Din told its members to keep their weapons and urged Syria’s new leaders to keep Sunni Muslims armed.

    “We advise them to keep the weapon in the hands of the Sunnis in the Levant in order for a nation to remain carrying weapons so that no tyrant will enslave it, and no occupier will covet it,” the group said.

    Hurras al-Din’s fighters may merge with Syria’s new HTS-led military, which has appointed foreign jihadists to senior positions. The dissolution announcement came after HTS’s leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, now known by his real name Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa, said there would be no armed groups outside of the new HTS-led government’s control.

    In the meantime, the Pentagon announced the following development:

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    Sharaa, the founder of al-Qaeda in Syria, was declared the president of Syria on Wednesday. The US, under President Biden, helped Sharaa and HTS take over Syria despite their al-Qaeda history and the fact that HTS is listed by the US as a terrorist organization.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/01/2025 – 14:00

  • Emaciated American-Israeli & Other Hostages Released In Gaza As Truce Progresses
    Emaciated American-Israeli & Other Hostages Released In Gaza As Truce Progresses

    Three hostages abducted during the October 7, 2023 have been freed by Hamas on Saturday after 484 days in captivity as the ceasefire deal continues to hold and advance.

    They were let go in a ceremony in Gaza’s Khan Younis, which has become a familiar scene – set up almost like a ‘graduation’ but with anti-Israeli banners set up behind the stage. They were released to the International Red Cross and then went back to Israel at the Gaza City port. Among the freed was 65-year old American-Israeli dual national Keith Siegel, as well as Ofer Calderon, 54, and Yarden Bibas, 35.

    Hamas militants stand next to Keith Siegel, via Reuters

    Various reports and eyewitnesses commented on Siegel’s significant weight loss during the lengthy captivity. But all hostages appeared generally in good health, and the handover took place without the chaos of the Thursday freeing of three Israelis and five Thai nationals.

    Siegel is the first hostage with American citizenship to have been freed during this current ceasefire. He’s been living in Israel for four decades, and is originally from North Carolina. There were half a dozen dual US-Israeli nationals taken on Oct.7, as CBS reviews:

    It is believed that at least two of the six American hostages still held in Gaza are alive — Sagui Dekel-Chen, 35, who grew up in Bloomfield, Connecticut, and Edan Alexander, 19, from Tenafly, New Jersey. Four other Americans are believed to have been killed in captivity.

    Siegel’s wife Aviva was also taken hostage by Hamas militants on Oct. 7, but was released in an earlier hostage and prisoner swap in November 2023.

    Speaking to CBS News about a year after her release, Aviva Siegel said there were moments as Hamas militants forced her and her husband through tunnels under the Gaza Strip that they felt “sure we were going to die.”

    Strangely, Hamas has been issuing “gift bags” to each freed hostage, apparently containing photographs of the duration of their detention in Gaza. 

    The Times of Israel describes as follows:

    Dual US-Israeli national Siegel was handed over at Gaza City’s port, paraded on a stage overlooking the sea as he carried two of the “gift bags” forced on the hostages by the terror group. According to the Walla news site, the second bag was for his wife Aviva, freed by Hamas in November 2023.

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    This latest, third round of exchanges included 183 Palestinians set free who were held in Israeli prisons. They returned to Gaza Strip and the West bank to scenes of jubilation.

    Israel has been trying to prohibit and crackdown on these large Palestinian celebrations. Al Jazeera has meanwhile written that “As Palestinians are released from Israeli prisons as part of the Gaza ceasefire deal, many show signs of severe beatings inflicted before their release, a prisoner rights group says.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/01/2025 – 13:25

  • Trump's Overhaul Of The Federal Bureaucracy Backed By Recent Survey Research
    Trump’s Overhaul Of The Federal Bureaucracy Backed By Recent Survey Research

    Authored by Elizabeth Sheld via RealClearPolicy,

    Since returning to office for a second term, President Trump has taken aggressive action to overhaul the federal bureaucracy. After a week in office some of Trump actions towards federal workers include: removing employment protections for civil servants, firing17 inspectors general, reassigning career officials in the Department of Justice, sending home 160 staffers from the National Security Agency and firing the lawyers at the Department of Justice who prosecuted Trump under special counsel Jack Smith.

    Trump’s efforts have been met with hostility and criticism from the media and predictably from his political opposition.

    Opinionist Phillip Bump at the Washington Post  writes Trump’s actions are “a sharp disruption of how the government works.” Bump laments that “Trump is clearly interested in…seeding loyalists throughout the executive branch.”  At Axios, Zachary Basu and Dave Lawler explain that Trump is “transform[ing] the federal bureaucracy into an army of loyalists.” Democratic Senator Tim Kaine, who represents 140,000 federal workers in Virginia, told reporters “This gleeful hatred of the federal workforce will lead to nothing good.”

    But are Trump’s efforts to transform the government workforce justified by a real concern that his policy platforms–which earned him a presidential victory–will be thwarted by anonymous bureaucrats?

    Recent survey research suggests Trump is right to be concerned. Napolitan Institute found that just 45% of Federal Government Managers would follow a legal order from President Trump if they thought the order was bad policy and instead would do what they thought was right. Among managers who voted for Kamala Harris that figure jumps to nearly three-quarters (69%.) The survey also found a majority (52%) of the federal managerial class voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 election.

    Those current survey results are consistent with events that developed in the first Trump Administration, where we learned how bureaucratic opinions on “right” policy interfered with the power of the duly elected executive officer.

    Former diplomat Jim Jeffrey revealed that his team routinely mislead the Trump Administration after the president had ordered the withdrawal of troops from Syria. “What Syria withdrawal? There was never a Syria withdrawal,” Jeffrey said. “When the situation in northeast Syria had been fairly stable after we defeated ISIS, [Trump] was inclined to pull out. In each case, we then decided to come up with five better arguments for why we needed to stay. And we succeeded both times. That’s the story.”

    “We were always playing shell games to not make clear to our leadership how many troops we had there,” Jeffrey said in an interview.

    While Jeffrey’s revelation came after Trump had left office from his first term, there was a real time revelation of a policy conflict between President Trump and the “interagency consensus” that would become foundation of the first Trump impeachment.

    The policy difference originated from a phone call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky when Trump requested Zelensky open an investigation into possible corruption at the Burisma energy company before receiving a military aid package. Trump’s 2020 election opponent Joe Biden’s son was on the board of Burisma.

    A central part of the subsequent impeachment case was testimony from Lt. Alexander Vindman (ret.), who had been detailed to the National Security Council and present for the phone call. Vindman explained in his opening statement to the House impeachment committee he was concerned the president chose to wield his executive authority in a way that was at odds with the “interagency consensus.” Vindman testified “…a false narrative of Ukraine inconsistent with the consensus views of the interagency,” Vindman said in his opening statement. “This narrative was harmful to U.S. government policy. While my interagency colleagues and I were becoming increasingly optimistic on Ukraine’s prospects, this alternative narrative undermined U.S. government efforts to expand cooperation with Ukraine.”  But Vindman and the “interagency consensus” have no authority to determine or execute their interpretation of U.S. government policy or in other words, “do what they thought was right.”

    The New York Times editorial board supported and encouraged the usurpation of executive authority in favor of the “right” bureaucratic opinion by praising the government bureaucracy overriding or ignoring President Trump’s lawful authority. “…patriotic public servants — career diplomats, scientists, intelligence officers and others…have somehow remembered that their duty is to protect the interests, not of a particular leader, but of the American people.”

    There is no way to know exactly how extensive bureaucratic resistance interfered with Trump’s ability to govern in his first term, but we do know 46% of current Federal Government Managers would ignore the legal order of President Trump and instead do what was “right.” Trump is making the correct move to overhaul the federal bureaucracy in order to deliver on the campaign promises that got him back in office.

    Elizabeth Sheld is a veteran political strategist and pollster who has worked on campaigns and public interest affairs.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 02/01/2025 – 12:50

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Today’s News 1st February 2025

  • Escobar: Dancing To Trump's Disco Inferno
    Escobar: Dancing To Trump’s Disco Inferno

    Authored by Pepe Escobar,

    In the late 1970s Donald Trump, in his early thirties, cocky as ever and recently married to Ivana in 1977, could be seen on and off hitting the electric New York City night life especially at glamour/hard partying disco dive Studio 54.

    A certified dancefloor killer at Studio 54 was Disco Inferno by The Trammps, mixed by dance wizard Tom Moulton, released in 1976, two years before perennial Trump favorite YMCA – now resuscitated to global furor as the soundtrack to Trump 2.0 dance moves.

    For all practical purposes, Trump is now the DJ turning the whole planet into a Disco Inferno (“folks are screaming, out of control”), as everything is “so entertaining when the boogie started to explode”. And the Trump “boogie” serially exploding is no less than the non-stop amplified sound of theater, bombast and uncontrolled chaos.

    The spectacle of Trump’s sound and fury – a torrent of executive orders, photo ops, carefully scripted illusionist tricks, breathless headlines – signifying…something veils the same old imperial mindset, now blasting out in the open as a weaponized three-ring circus. Stagecraft invariably trumps substance as every smirk and scowl is media-weaponized to the enthralled, bloodthirsty arena spectators.

    Mr. Disco Inferno won a mini-trade war with Colombia in only 10 hours, after posting an image depicting himself as an Al Capone-style Mafia boss in pinstripe suit and fedora hat, standing next to a sign that reads “FAFO”, which means “F**k Around and Find Out”.

    He will win the proxy war in Ukraine. In 24 hours. Sorry, in 100 days. Sorry, maybe more. And “if they don’t settle this war soon, like almost immediately, I’m going to put massive tariffs on Russia and massive taxes and also big sanctions.” Why? Because, “you know, I love the Russian people.”

    He brags that the United States “has the largest amount of oil and gas” (it does not) and is going to use it; he will “ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down oil prices” (they will say no); because if “the oil price came down, the war in Ukraine would end immediately” (this is definitely not a “cause and effect” case).

    He will make “the largest tax cuts in US history.” The US can ensure LNG supplies to Europe (of course, at a huge mark-up); the US “does not need Canada to make cars, as well as Canadian oil and gas”;the United States’ “massive oil and gas reserves” will allow it to “become a manufacturing superpower and the world capital of AI and cryptocurrencies”.

    Buried in the sound and fury is the fact that the US can count on a steady stream of gas for domestic needs but that turns problematic when it comes to exports. Hence the expropriation obsession – as in outright Empire of Plunder: the US badly needs Iraqi, Syrian, Venezuelan, Mexican, Iranian and Russian reserves. Because even if carefully exported, there is insufficient liquification facilities in the US to supply the EU. And that’s why Europe remains largely dependent on Russian LNG and other sources since the sabotage of the Nordstreams.

    Satisfaction…came in a chain reaction

    Yes: there is incoming blood on the dancefloor.

    To get into the real groove of Disco Inferno, we might as well focus on the top three challenges for Trump 2.0:

    1. the tech war against China;

    2. the geoeconomics war against the Global Majority;

    3. and the proxy war in Ukraine.

    The irruption of Hangzhou-based Chinese tech start-up DeepSeek on the global stage was something for the ages, instantly decimating the spun-to-death “small yard, high fence” American strategy to smash China’s tech advances.

    DeepSeek should indeed be seen as the “biggest dark horse” in the open-source Large Language Model (LLM) domain, now identified from Jakarta to Wall Street and Silicon Valley as potentially Beijing’s secret weapon in the AI war with the US. Even Mr. Disco Inferno was forced to admit DeepSeek’s breakthrough as a “wake-up call”.

    At the heart of the matter we find two clashing models: neoliberal hypercapitalism versus meritocratic socialism.

    The head of DeepSeek, Liang Wenfeng, is a fascinating geek. His given name (Wenfeng) means “Vanguard of Culture”; one of the meanings of his family name (Liang) is “bridge”. So he may be seen – as he is in China – as Mr. Bridge to the Vanguard of Culture (here’s Mr. Bridge in an excellent interview , in Chinese; please use auto-translate).

    Mr. Bridge pulled a spectacular Sun Tzu on US sanctions over exporting advanced graphic processing units (GPUs), especially Nvidia’s advanced chips. Moreover, Chinese Big Tech firms cannot compete with the financial firepower of US Big Tech.

    So the answer was to develop cost-efficient powerful LLM models, without access to literally hundreds of thousands of Nvidia H100s chips. DeepSeek stated they had used just 2,048 Nvidia H800s and only $5.6million to train a model with 671 billion (italics mine) parameters: that’s a very small fraction of what OpenAI and Google spent to train models of the same size.

    And everything was developed locally, via scores of PHDs from the top Chinese universities – Peking, Tsinghua, Beihang – and not American Ivy League experts.

    So in a nutshell DeepSeek is a 100% Chinese LLM companywhich was capable to come up with open-source models and a free downloadable app for every consumer to use. That in itself destroys the current American-imposed neoliberal hypercapitalist AI business model.

    The rules of the game indeed are being rewritten. So what is the – predictable – American response? Call for more sanctions. In parallel, DeepSeek was forced to suspend new registrations because its site suffered a massive cyberattack. Talk about the price to pay for eviscerating a humongous $1 trillion off the techno-feudalists gathered at the New York Stock Exchange.

    Mr. Disco Inferno of course supports the commodifying of all data compared to free data for everyone. Right before the DeepSeek shock, he had – theoretically – secured as much as $1 trillion from the Saudis, including to a large extent investments to develop AI and data centers in the US.

    The new game of course is just beginning. Stargate, OpenAI’s joint venture with Japan’s SoftBank, also heavily plugged by Trump, plans to spend at least $100 billion on AI infrastructure in the US. In parallel, Elon Musk’s xAI is massively expanding the Colossus supercomputer to contain more than 1million GPUs to help train its Grok AI models.

    I couldn’t get enough, so I had to self-destruct

    Now to the war against the Global Majority. Inestimable Prof. Michael Hudson is adamant: in an absolutely must read essay, he concisely explains that “when Trump promised his voters that the United States must be the ‘winner’ in any international trade or financial agreement, he is declaring economic war on the rest of the world.”

    The key Hudson take away: If nations in the Global South are to save their economy “from being plunged into austerity, price inflation, unemployment and social chaos”, they will have to “suspend payments on foreign debts denominated in dollars.”

    It’s a work in progress: “Circumstances…are forcing the world to break away from the US-centered financial order. The US dollar’s exchange rate is going to soar in the short term as a result of Trump blocking imports with tariffs and trade sanctions. This exchange-rate shift will squeeze foreign countries owing dollar debts in the same way that Mexico and Canada are to be squeezed. To protect themselves, they must suspend dollar debt service.”

    There may be serious problems ahead for Mr. Disco Inferno: “Trump’s America First political theater that got him elected may get his gang unseated as the contradictions and consequences of their operating philosophy are recognized and replaced. His tariff policy will accelerate US price inflation and, even more fatally, cause chaos in US and foreign financial markets. Supply chains will be disrupted, interrupting US exports of everything from aircraft to information technology. And other countries will find themselves obliged to make their economies no longer dependent on US exports or dollar credit.”

    Prof. Hudson notes how Trump “thinks that the US economy is like a cosmic black hole, that is, a center of gravity able to pull all the world’s money and economic surplus to itself. That is the explicit aim of America First. That is what makes Trump’s program a declaration of economic war on the rest of the world. There is no longer a promise that the economic order sponsored by US diplomacy will make other countries prosperous. The gains from trade and foreign investment are to be sent to and concentrated in America.”

    The EU, in the Global North, is even more vulnerable to “America First”. Davos came and went with a mere blip on the screen, apart from the odd US banker bragging about “peak pessimism” in Europe – linked to the incoming Trump tariff tsunami – and head of the European Central Bank Christine “Look at my new Hermes scarf” Lagarde wondering it was “not pessimistic” to say that Europe is facing an “existential crisis”.

    The US-EU trade balance stands at a hefty 1.5 trillion euros a year, including massive Atlanticist investment flows. But what really matters is the financial mess in individual EU nations, especially top two Germany and France, with their Via Dolorosa to be extended ad infinitum when it comes to their cost of borrowing driven by tax cuts in the US.

    I heard somebody say (Burning Burning) burn that mother down

    And now to the Forever Wars front.

    Mr. Disco Inferno, posing as a humanitarian for the non-stop camera clicking, has asked vassals Jordan and Egypt to de facto become accomplices in ethnic cleansing, absorbing as many as 1.5 million people from Gaza. Article 49 of the Fourth Geneva Convention explicitly “prohibits the forced transfer of protected people out of or into occupied territory”.

    Turning a genocide into a real estate opportunity  in a “phenomenal location” will proceed in parallel with energetically courting the Saudis, after MbS in Riyadh promised last week to invest at least $600 billion – and up to a possible $1 trillion – in the US.

    The official Saudi position is on the necessity of “strategic investments” to “stabilize long-term revenue streams” – not to mention consolidate lavish spending on all those US-made weapons systems. Call it a classic geopolitical case of Power of Capital merging with The Strategy of Chaos.

    Telling Riyadh how to dance is one thing. To entice the Russian bear to the dancefloor is a completely different proposition.

    As star French historian Emmanuel Todd has brilliantly demonstrated , “Trump’s job will be to manage the defeat of the US against Russia.” That’s the toughest call ever. Trump’s supreme anathema is to be seen as a loser.

    So there are only two feasible options.

    1. To “end the war” by not really ending it, just postponing it to the end of the decade, stealing a de facto Russian victory via massive spin and a gargantuan P.R. campaign.

    2. Keep weaponizing Kiev – especially via NATO vassals, while posing as a peacemaker who cannot deliver because of Russia. That will be a toxic variant of the current “war until the last Ukrainian”.

    That kind of gimmickry won’t fly in Moscow. Putin and the Security Council have made it extensively clear the conditions for a real end to the war – not a pause for NATO rearmament.

    The authentic-or-not 100-day plan for a possible deal that has been circulating in the Washington-London-Kiev echo chambers touches on a few probabilities: a Putin-Trump phone call in the next two weeks or so; a possible meeting, bilateral (Trump-Putin) or trilateral (with the Ukrainian actor; quite unlikely) until mid-March; start of negotiations on the main parameters; a possible ceasefire by Easter; an International Peace Conference by the end of April, mediated by US, China, some EU members and some from the Global South; presidential elections in Ukraine at the end of August.

    Key parameters: Ukraine as a neutral state, and not a member of NATO; member of the EU by 2030; Ukraine does not reduce the size of the army; does not officially recognize Russian sovereignty over conquered territories; “some” sanctions against Russia lifted immediately after the conclusion of the peace agreement, some – over the course of three years – depending on Russia’s compliance; all restrictions on the import of Russian energy to the EU to be lifted; and last but not least, the thorny matter of a “European peacekeeping contingent”.

    The CIA is feeding all sorts of misinformation to Trump on everything from the real state of things in the battlefield to the state of the Russian economy. As it stands, Russians watch all the bombast with barely a smirk. Peskov: “Moscow still hasn’t received word from Washington about possible Trump, Putin contact… Readiness for meeting remains.”

    So far, nothing. Totally empty game playing. Perhaps Trump, in secrecy, may be practicing his master shot: “The heat was on, rising to the top / Everybody going strong, and that is when my spark got hot”.

    Time to hit the dancefloor.

    (Just can’t stop) when my spark gets hot
    (Just can’t stop) when my spark gets hot
    (Just can’t stop) when my spark gets hot
    (Just can’t stop) when my spark gets hot

    Well, it may turn out that the really hot spark will be detonated not by Mr. Disco Inferno, but by dance partner Vladimir Putin.

    *  *  *

    Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/31/2025 – 23:25

  • Prediction Consensus: What The Experts See Coming In 2025
    Prediction Consensus: What The Experts See Coming In 2025

    As we look ahead to 2025, there is no shortage of expert forecasts and predictions for what will happen to the world’s economy, markets, geopolitics, and technology in 2025.

    In this now sixth year of Visual Capitalist’s Prediction Consensus (part of our comprehensive 2025 Global Forecast Series presented by Inigo Insurance), Kayla Zhu has summarized the most common predictions and forecasts by experts into a single visual of what they expect to happen in 2025.

    Drawing from our predictions database of over 800 forecasts compiled from reports, interviews, podcasts, and more, the Prediction Consensus “bingo card” and this article offer an overview of the most cited trends and opportunities that experts are watching for the rest of the year.

     

    Geopolitical Predictions for 2025

    Increased geopolitical uncertainty and volatility is top of mind for many forecasters heading into 2025, as global trade dynamics restructure around tariffs and potential counter-tariffs.

    For many forecasters, President Donald Trump’s return to office is anticipated to escalate U.S.-China tensions, potentially triggering increased economic competition, protectionist policies, and global fragmentation.

    “For now, America’s rivalry with China will manifest itself as a trade war, as Mr Trump imposes restrictions and ramps up tariffs—including on America’s allies”

    – Tom Standage, The Economist

    The geopolitical landscape is likely to become more volatile as both nations navigate a complex and increasingly adversarial relationship, with the U.S. intensifying its protectionist stance under Trump while China looks to strengthening its BRICS partnerships.

    Amid U.S.-China tensions, experts expect the geopolitical landscape to remain fraught as Sudan endures one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, marked by famine and mass displacement with limited aid while Syria faces a precarious transition following the fall of Bashar al-Assad.

    However, some conflicts are predicted to wrap up this year, with a number of experts optimistic that 2025 could mark the end of the Russia-Ukraine war as it nears its third anniversary. Another significant conflict saw a breakthrough as Israel and Hamas reached a Gaza ceasefire in January 2025, offering a brief respite after 15 months of hostilities.

    Along with these ongoing geopolitical issues, several major elections are on the horizon for 2025, including Canada, Germany, Belarus, the Philippines, and Australia.

    Economy and Markets Forecasts for 2025

    Based on the hundreds of economic forecasts and predictions we’ve sifted through, many analysts and experts share matching views on what’s ahead for inflation, interest rates, and economic growth in 2025.

    Global inflation forecasts for 2025: Inflation is expected to continue easing in 2025 across many economies, with global inflation expected to drop from 5.8% in 2024 to 4.3% in 2025. However, some experts predict tariffs could drive acute inflation as firms pass additional costs onto consumers.

    Interest rate forecasts for 2025: Further interest rate cuts are projected for the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank in 2025, while the Bank of Japan was expected to bump rates by 25 bps this year, and has already followed through with their rate hike to 0.50%–a level not seen since the 2008 global financial crisis.

    Global markets forecasts for 2025: Forecasters are quite bullish on the markets, with positive S&P 500 forecasts in the 10% to 20% range and an expected broadening of returns beyond the Magnificent 7 expected for 2025. Consensus expectations see U.S. equities leading earnings while Europe rebounds and Asia softens.

    Gold prices are expected to continue to surge this year, with experts positioning it as both an effective hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties and a general portfolio diversifier. Bitcoin and cryptocurrency are also expected to see growth as the Trump administration advances pro-crypto policies and global economies develop more structured regulatory frameworks for digital assets.

    Global real GDP growth forecasts for 2025: The outlook for global growth continues to be fairly stable heading into 2025. Global GDP growth forecasts range from 2.7% to 3.2%, squarely in the range of IMF’s 10-year average (2015-2024) of 3.1%.

     

    “With some shocks set to ease, such as Russia-Ukraine, along with a bonfire of regulations and tax cuts in the U.S. economy, the global economy is likely to perform better than last year.”

    – Mo Tanweer, academic associate Pembroke College, University of Cambridge and consultant to Inigo Insurance

    The U.S. and China are both expected to experience slower growth in 2025, with the IMF projecting U.S. GDP growth at 2.7%, down 0.1 percentage points from 2024, and China’s at 4.6%, down 0.2 percentage points from last year.

    Technology and AI Predictions for 2025

    Advancements in artificial intelligence innovation and infrastructure show no sign of slowing down in 2025.

    Just this January, President Trump announced the Stargate Project, a $500 billion AI infrastructure venture led by OpenAI, SoftBank, Oracle, and MGX, aimed at building data centers across the United States to secure American leadership in AI technology, with an initial $100 billion deployment starting in Texas.

    Significant strides in AI are in the works this year, including agentic AI systems and artificial general intelligence (AGI) which OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei have all stated are well-within possibility in the near future, possibly this year.

    However, as companies scale up their AI operations, both capital expenditures and energy costs are projected to rise, highlighting the need for improvements in energy efficiency and renewable sources in shaping AI’s future and aligning it with environmental objectives.

    Robotics and autonomous driving technology are also expected to continue to advance as AI systems become more sophisticated, with experts forecasting autonomous driving to become “safe and reliable” by 2025 and relatively mainstream across major cities in the United States.

    2025 Forecasts: The Year of Recalibration

    As we head into 2025, notable shifts are taking shape across geopolitical, economic, and technological landscapes. The year stands out as a pivotal moment of global recalibration—where established systems are being challenged, reimagined, and restructured.

    Trump’s return to the White House is expected to dramatically reshape U.S. foreign and economic policy, with a particular focus on trade measures and protectionist strategies.

    His administration’s approach is likely to test international relationships, potentially accelerating economic competition and global fragmentation while simultaneously pursuing domestic market stimulation and supportive policies for emerging technologies like AI and digital assets.

    However, as a whole the world is carefully rebalancing economically. Inflation is gradually cooling, markets show optimism, and central banks are strategically adjusting interest rates. The global economic engine is humming at a steady, if not spectacular, pace, with GDP growth remaining stable despite slowing projections for major economies like the U.S. and China.

    Perhaps most notably, technology—and particularly artificial intelligence—emerges as a transformative and disruptive force. Massive investments in AI infrastructure and predictions about artificial general intelligence signal a technological watershed, but are also being challenged by efficiency and cost innovations made apparent by China’s open source Deepseek R1 model release.

    From geopolitical tensions to technological innovations, the year promises to be a period of strategic adaptation, where countries, markets, and technologies reassess and realign themselves to address the complex challenges of our interconnected world.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/31/2025 – 23:00

  • The Demoralizing Downward Spiral Of Algorithmic Culture
    The Demoralizing Downward Spiral Of Algorithmic Culture

    Authored by Thomas Harrington via the Brownstone Institute,

    In need of a letter certifying that I do not suffer from a disease of international concern, I headed out to my primary care practitioner last Monday.

    Knowing how busy most doctor’s offices are these days, I decided I’d make it easy on the staff by bringing a) a copy of the WHO’s International Health Regulations (IHR) regulations on diseases of international concern b) a list of the diseases currently covered under this rubric and c) explicit instructions about the elements such a letter must include (i.e. letterhead of the practice, stamp of the practice, doctor’s signature etc.).

    They assured me that they were familiar with this procedure and that it would be no problem.

    And when I mentioned that it would be great if they could do it in both English and Spanish, I was assured that would be no problem either as there was a Spanish-speaking provider on staff who could write it up in that language.

    But again, in the interest of facilitating things, I provided them with a copy of this very type of certification letter written for me some time back by a doctor in Spain. This “letter,” such as it was, consisted of one sentence of 27 words in Spanish and a couple more than that when rendered into English.

    Given that there were two staff members present, and that one of them was scrolling on her phone, I figured it would be a simple matter of one of them quickly writing up the letters, checking my file to see if I had any of the diseases of international concern (I had been there a week previous for my annual checkup) and catching my doctor (or one of his colleagues) between patients for a quick signature.

    However, when I asked the woman in front of me how long it would take, she replied, “Three to five business days. That’s the procedure. We’ll call you when it is done”.

    When I told them that I needed it for an appointment first thing on the following Monday in New York and that if I didn’t have all the documents, it would be months before I got another one, they just repeated the mantra that it would be done toward the end of the week, probably late on Friday.

    On Friday, at 1:45 I received a call saying the letter was ready for pickup. Relieved, I entered the office, checked the letter quickly, and headed out. Upon rechecking it at home, however, I realized that it had not been signed by the doctor, which was one of the first requirements on the list of directions I had handed them on Monday.

    So back I went to the office and explained to them it would be inadmissible for the bureaucratic procedure in question without that signature. By this time it was getting toward 3:15 in an office scheduled to close at 5:00.

    The woman behind the counter said she really didn’t know what she could do. I said, “Why don’t you just write it up and grab one of the doctors in the practice (I had been shifted by them from one doctor to another owing to scheduling jam-ups on their end during the last few years) to sign it?” adding, “After all, it does not involve disclosure of any of my personal clinical details other than the fact that I do not have any of the mentioned diseases.”

    After listening to me and saying nothing, she ran off to talk to her manager.

    When she got back she said, “I’m going to put an order in for it,” and began typing into her computer looking for the page where she could “put in an order” for something that could literally be done in 2-3 minutes. I said somewhat incredulously “Put in an order at this point?” and repeated the idea of typing the letter anew and grabbing one of the doctors between appointments.

    She said “That’s not the procedure” and besides, “Your doctor is no longer in the office,” implying that while they could shift patients from one doctor to the other according to their scheduling needs, my asking that a member of the same ostensibly interchangeable team of doctors carry out this simple task on the same premise was an anathema.

    After another trip to the invisible manager, she returned saying I could leave and that they’d call me when and if the issue is resolved.

    An hour later I received a call saying everything was arranged and that I could come and pick up the letter.

    With a smiling face, she handed me the 27-word letter. But there was only one problem. It was signed not by a doctor but an APRN. When I explained that the directions clearly said that it needed to be signed by a doctor and that the foreign government agency I was taking it to was notorious for rejecting documents that did not conform exactly to their requirements, a confused frown returned to her face.

    She asked me to sit in the waiting room and ran off to the manager again. It was now 4:45 in the afternoon, 15 minutes before closing time.

    About 10 minutes later, the heretofore invisible manager emerged, and with a smiling face, assured me that the issue would be resolved shortly. And so it was.

    At 4:55 she emerged with the letter signed by the only remaining MD at the office, grabbing her, I presume, as she emerged from one of her sessions with a patient.

    In other words, the issue had been finally resolved by the very unalgorithmic, but highly practical and personal manner I had proposed four days earlier.

    So, what’s the moral of the story?

    Before getting to that, I should perhaps say what it is not; the idea is not to point out that the nice people at the office are all irretrievably stupid…at least not yet.

    Rather it is to demonstrate a phenomenon that is rampant in culture that we seldom talk about openly, never mind decry with all the fury that it deserves.

    It is the story of how a managerial elite possessed of generalized contempt for the bulk of their fellow citizens and a slavish adherence to an extremely narrow, algorithmically-generated notion of “efficiency” has created scores of so-called idiot-proof systems that dehumanize and demoralize those who work in or engage with them.

    And while these systems are wildly successful at walling off the corporations that design them from the need to listen to and mindfully serve those who buy their goods and services, they are not, as my little story above shows, even efficient in any meaningful sense of the term.

    Those of us of a certain age who have worked in office settings all know (or knew) that person, that wonderful person with a vibrant personality, quick intelligence, and top-notch social skills to whom you could always turn to get things done in a pinch.

    She—and yes, it was usually a she—knew where all the bodies were buried and the strengths and weaknesses of every person in the house, something she would leverage to make things happen in the most unobtrusive and efficient way possible, pulling those she worked with out of tight spaces again and again along the way.

    It pains me to say this, but it seems these linchpins of workplace culture are in extremely short supply today.

    And it’s not, as many people assume, because we lack people with the aptitude to perform in this impressive multimodal manner in our society.

    No, it is because, despite all the HR-generated rhetoric proclaiming the opposite, the people who design and run the systems within which we work are often true nihilists for whom the magical and life-giving processes of human relations, and what some students of psychological development call “human becoming,” mean next to nothing.

    Caught in the “measure-grab-and-control” tyranny of the algorithmic mind, they cannot even begin to imagine how those they see as lesser than them, might, if left to their own devices, be capable of generating greater efficiencies than their vaunted oh-so-rational systems…and usually with a heaping portion of increased human joy as part of the bargain.

    Worse yet, they do not realize that putting people in systems that assume they are stupid will, in the long run, make those who have intelligence (and what person doesn’t?) truly and profoundly stupid, sad, and ultimately unresponsive to anyone or anything in the long run.

    Is that what the managerial elite truly want? Or is it that their imaginations are already so impoverished by fantasies of algorithmic perfection that they truly do not understand the wave of spiritual destruction they have set in motion and feed daily?

    I honestly wish I knew.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/31/2025 – 22:35

  • Japan's Aging Problem In One Chart
    Japan’s Aging Problem In One Chart

    Japan’s population aged 65 and over has reached an all-time high of 36 million, accounting for 29.3% of the total population.

    With such a large portion at retirement age, the country faces the challenge of maintaining its workforce capacity.

    This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti, visualizes Japan’s population aged 65 and over compared to the total population from 1950 to 2045 forecasts, based on data compiled by the Statistics Bureau of Japan.

    Half of Japanese Companies Report Employee Shortages

    Japan has the world’s highest proportion of the population aged 65 and over. While the country’s population has been declining, the proportion of older citizens continues to grow and is projected to reach 34.8% by 2040.

    As the population ages, Japan’s labor force is expected to shrink significantly. A recent research note from Morgan Stanley’s Robert Feldman estimates that, based on past demographic trends, the labor force could decline from approximately 69.3 million in 2023 to around 49.1 million by 2050.

    Year Population Population 65+ Population 65+ (%)
    1950 83M 4M 4.9%
    1955 89M 5M 5.2%
    1960 93M 5M 5.7%
    1965 98M 6M 6.3%
    1970 105M 8M 7.3%
    1975 112M 10M 8.4%
    1980 117M 19M 10.1%
    1985 121M 14M 11.8%
    1990 124M 16M 13.0%
    1995 126M 19M 15.0%
    2000 127M 22M 17.4%
    2005 128M 25M 19.6%
    2010 128M 29M 22.8%
    2015 127M 33M 26.3%
    2020 126M 36M 28.6%
    2023 124M 36M 29.4%
    2024 124M 36M 29.3%
    2030F 123M 37M 30.1%
    2035F 120M 38M 31.9%
    2040F 117M 41M 34.8%
    2045F 113M 41M 36.4%

    Currently, 51% of companies in Japan report a shortage of full-time employees.

    To address this issue, Japan has implemented immigration programs to attract skilled workers. In 2024, a record 2 million foreign workers were employed in Japan, with plans to add up to 800,000 more over the next five years.

    If you enjoyed this topic, check out this graphic that shows how different generations will shape the global population by 2035.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/31/2025 – 22:10

  • Fifth Circuit Declares Federal Age Limits On Adult Gun Ownership Unconstitutional
    Fifth Circuit Declares Federal Age Limits On Adult Gun Ownership Unconstitutional

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    The United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit has issued a major ruling on the Second Amendment, declaring that federal prohibitions on gun sales to adults between the ages of 18-20 are unconstitutional. The case is Reese v. ATF. For gun rights advocates, it may have been better if this decision had been handed down during the Biden Administration. The Trump Administration will likely support the ruling and might not appeal to the Supreme Court.

    The case concerns 18 U.S.C. §§ 922(b)(1) and (c)(1), and related regulations, including 27 C.F.R. §§ 478.99(b), 478.124(a), and 478.96(b). These provisions are the basis for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) to bar Federal Firearms Licensees (FFLs) from selling or delivering handguns to adults under the age of twenty-one.

    Writing for the panel (with Judge Jennifer Walker Elrod, a George W. Bush appointee. and Judge Rhesa Hawkins Barksdale, a George H.W. Bush appointee), Judge Edith Hollan Jones relied on the 2022 decision in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, Inc. v. Bruen to find that the prohibition was not grounded in the historical tradition of the amendment:

    Ultimately, the text of the Second Amendment includes eighteen-to-twenty-year-old individuals among “the people” whose right to keep and  bear arms is protected. The federal government has presented scant evidence that eighteen-to-twenty-year-olds’ firearm rights during the founding-era were restricted in a similar manner to the contemporary federal handgun purchase ban, and its 19th century evidence “cannot provide much insight into the meaning of the Second Amendment when it contradicts earlier evidence.

    …In sum…[statues which ‘prohibit Federal Firearms Licensees]…from selling or delivering handguns to adults under the age of twenty-one. and their attendant regulations are unconstitutional in light of our Nation’s historic tradition of firearm regulation.”

    The decision reverses the ruling of Judge Robert Rees Summerhays of the United States District Court for the Western District of Louisiana, a Trump appointee.

    The case involved some interesting historical arguments about how some states set the age for the militia at 21 rather than 18. The effort to ground the provisions in a historical context proved unavailing since most states set the age at 18.

    “The government’s theory inverts historical analysis by relying principally on mid-to-late-19th century statutes (most enacted after Reconstruction) that restricted firearm ownership based on age. Then the government works backward to assert that these laws are consistent with founding-era analogues focusing on the minority status and general “irresponsibility” of eighteen-to-twenty-year-olds.”

    Instead, the court found ample support for the right of young adults to bear arms:

    “[C]ontrary to the government’s recitation of concerns expressed in the colonial and founding eras about the “irresponsibility” of those under twenty-one, these young individuals were expected to keep the peace rather than disturb it. In addition to serving in the militia, eighteen-to-twenty-year-olds could be obliged to join the posse comitatus, for which the minimum age was often fifteen or sixteen, and bring “such arms or weapons as they have or can provide”…Before the emergence of standing police forces, the posse comitatus was made up of civilians who accompanied sheriffs or other officials in pursuit of fugitives. … In early colonial America, the posse was “transformed . . . from an instrument of royal prerogative to an institution of local self-governance” that “all but precipitated the American Revolution.” Citizens could be called to “execute arrests, level public nuisances, and keep the peace;” they faced fines or imprisonment if they refused. Instead of refusing to arm young Americans for fear of their irresponsibility, founding-era regulations required them to be armed to secure public safety.”

    Everytown for Gun Safety, a gun control group associated with former New York mayor Mike Bloomberg, called upon the Trump Administration to appeal the decision:

    “We hope the federal government will fight this reckless ruling by seeking rehearing en banc, or taking the case directly to the Supreme Court.”

    There is an argument for the Solicitor General to defend the federal law as a matter of course. However, the ruling is consistent with the views of many in the Administration.

    Had this decision come down under the Biden Administration, an appeal would likely have been taken and this could have strongly reinforced the Court’s Second Amendment jurisprudence. Success at the Supreme Court would have extended this precedent nationally. Of course, there is always the unknown of how Chief Justice John Roberts would react to such limits. Roberts has previously signaled his willingness to entertain reasonable limits.

    The case, however, will add persuasive authority for challenges in various states to age limitations.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/31/2025 – 21:45

  • The Biodefense Oligarchy And Its Demographic Defeats
    The Biodefense Oligarchy And Its Demographic Defeats

    Authored by Joe Murphy via The Brownstone Institute,

    Some years back, in calmer times before the storm, we officers at sea held the wardroom mess in accordance with that classic naval tradition. It was modernized and conducted over secure video, so those of us in the Med studied with those in the Gulf and those in the BAM,1 but it was all the same. Our study was Thucydides. 

    The Peloponnesian War is too large for a deployment’s worth of weekly studies to cover, so after each session, I filled my evening with further reading. As the Oak Hill2 passed Sicily, I was drawn to the history of the Sicilian Expedition. History is studied to draw lessons for present times. Athens’ lessons are abundant for ours.

    In the midst of the 30-year Peloponnesian War, factions of Athens deemed an invasion of Sicily critical to overall victory. Inherent to their argument was the reality that Sicily would be impossibly lucrative if victorious. So it was then, so it is now: potential profit often clouds sound judgment. 

    The opposition lost and the attack proceeded. It took the entire fleet and all its citizen manpower and it was entirely defeated. During the multi-year effort, the factions that drove it fused into an oligarchy that perpetuated itself and its war until its incompetence and complete defeat undermined its despotism. It still took the Demos physically overthrowing the Oligarchy for democracy to be restored in Athens.3 

    Athens could rebuild the ships. But it could not rebuild the men. Thirty thousand citizen sailors were lost in the expedition – the heart of Athens’ civilizational power. The demographic catastrophe is considered a cause of Athens’ eventual defeat in the war and its civilizational decline.4

    Two decades ago, factions argued that biowarfare threats were so significant that biodefense responsibility needed to be removed from the purview of the uniformed military and placed within NIAID under NIH and under HHS. There were structural and efficiency reasons to do this but the intangible reason was that the uniformed military officer corps would not stain its honor with biowarfare. It had held the line with the bioweapons convention since Nixon axed the US bioweapons program, so it had to be removed from the picture for the factions to proceed.

    This action, called BioShield, fused the pharmaceutical industry with biodefense and fused the public health agencies with the intelligence community. The two entities in America not held accountable by law or practice, the vaccine industry and the intelligence community (IC), were joined into one. Though done to achieve a positive aim, it is obvious in hindsight that this fusion would create unaccountable oligarchy. Its most apparent manifestation is the director of NIAID’s salary, the highest in government and higher than the president’s, with corresponding tangible worldwide political power. This power structure was known previously to insiders5 but only became visible to the public during the Covid response. It also goes without saying that merging medicine with biodefense under the pretext of foreign biothreats is impossibly lucrative. So it was then, so it is now: potential profit often clouds sound judgment.

    The biodefense oligarchy spread its tentacles across government and industry. There is pie to be had and it is lucrative. Adversaries make advances in biotechnology so funds must keep coming and riskier and riskier research must be done to supposedly stay ahead of those adversaries, especially if it proves true that the DOD and NIH traded advanced technology to those adversaries so the IC could gain access and spy on their laboratories.6Now with more advanced technology, the IC must do more spying on those adversaries and NIAID more research. The biodefense oligarchy is a reinforcing feedback loop. It perpetuates its reason to exist. 

    There does not appear to be a valid evaluation as to whether the biothreat rates such an apparatus in the context of the overarching threat picture the United States faces. It is unclear if the warriors, the combat armsmen, and the unrestricted line officers are involved in the assessment since they ceased to be involved years ago in an act of false piety (to which the origin of the Covid fiasco can be traced). And the director of NIAID will just turn off funding to the universities in the Congressman’s district when the Congressman raises opposition to the arrangement if the universities in his district have not already complained, for the oligarchy’s funds are substantial. The biodefense grantee taps DOD and NIAID for biodefense funds.

    That’s two pots. Because of “the threats,” they can tap IC funds. Three pots. With the Global War On Terror creation of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the delegation of defense functions to DHS, including biodefense, there’s a fourth pot. There are actually even more pots, as the DEFUSE proposal shows, to the consternation of federal agents trying to piece the web together.7 There is pie to be had and it is lucrative.

    As with the Athenians’ Sicilian Expedition, the biodefense oligarchy became stronger as it accrued failures. The predominant failure is the creation and release of SARS-CoV-2 and the consequent response. Biodefense acolytes called Covid a war and treated it as so, forcing the nation into a war footing. War demands resources and faltering war campaigns demand more resources to keep them afloat. Resourcing demands organization – consolidation – and consolidation equates to more power.

    All governments accrue more powers in wartime. Jacob Siegel, a 9/11-generation veteran like me, wrote a fantastic Tablet essay8 on the disinformation complex which addressed the fusion of the biodefense apparatus with the GWOT-Patriot Act apparatus during the Covid event (I have near verbatim unpublished essays that say the same, and my peers and I discuss this repeatedly, so it is equally fascinating that our generation sees this so clearly).

    Essentially, Americans were subjected to a counterterror-insurgency strategy implemented against them by the administrative state in response to the virus. This architecture was for war overseas but was implemented against the American people. With too many interests involved, the expanding apparatus could not be stopped, even by the party in power (which is the nature of oligarchy). As occurred overseas, counterinsurgency failed and in failure imposed despotism and broke the social compact of the country. Alas, the biodefense oligarchy only accumulated more power.

    War added a final element to the oligarchy. SARS-CoV-2 occurred amidst a predicted class conflict9 between the credentialed class and everyone else (laptop class, expert class, essential v. nonessential, etc.).10 The landscape of politics had arranged in recent years to where the dominant credentialed caste aligned with the Democrats. This class and party alignment postured this faction to align with the biodefense oligarchy when the Covid “war” started, which is what happened. So biodefense + public health + vaccine industry + intelligence community + social class + political party + “war” = American Oligarchy.11

    In such a landscape, the Demos emerged in opposition, another parallel to Athens. The Demos is the opposition party plus the rebellion. In counterinsurgency, the goal is to protect the people from the insurgent. In the Covid war, the “war” against the insurgent virus involved the biodefense oligarchy imposing war on the American people to “keep safe” [from the insurgent]. Since the people are oppressed in counterinsurgency, many rebel. The rebellion expands as the authorities’ ineptitude against the actual threat becomes too obvious for mass propaganda to conceal. The ineptitude also weakens and fractures the oligarchy. During the coup against Biden in July, a Harris staffer quipped that Biden was the oligarchy that needed to go away. Oligarchy complained to oligarchy that it was an oligarchy.12 This turned out to be a signal of the oligarchy’s pending implosion. Absent war, the oligarchy’s factions could no longer hold. 

    Present politics mirror the Athenian conflict between the Oligarchy and Demos, with November’s electoral victory another parallel to the Demos’ ultimate victory. How ultimate this Demos’ victory will be will play out in time. For, like Athenian history, America’s story will pivot on our version of the failed Sicilian Expedition. 

    America’s Sicilian Expedition is the creation and response to SARS-CoV-2. It is the compounding of errors from the Biodefense Oligarchy that culminates in our equivalent to Athens’ loss of its 30,000.

    First is the death toll from SARS-CoV-2 itself. SARS-CoV-2, a synthetic virus or a reverse genetics system or a synthetic self-spreading vaccine – a living thing created in man’s hubris in “defense” against potential natural or man-made pathogens – harmed and killed many people.13This number is clouded by the Lockdown and treatment debacle. This number will remain disputed until the actual origin and nature of SARS-CoV-2 is known – what it is down to the amino acid level – and the statisticians and systems dynamicists rework the calculations. These losses were painful, but they were predominantly the old. The creation of and losses to SARS-CoV-2 itself equate to the initiation of the Sicilian Expedition. These losses are not equivalent to the loss of the fleet and its 30,000 citizen-warriors.

    The losses from the vaccines are. These losses came well after the start of the war, at a time when the purpose and value of the war and the perpetuation of it could be re-evaluated. Moreover, these losses are in the young. These losses are concealed by the oligarchy but visible: the athlete who drops on the field, the runner who clutches his heart and face-plants on the street corner, the hyper-fit lieutenant who lies dead on the side of the road, the major collapsed during the fitness test with his peers pinning his violently stroking body to stop him choking on his tongue, the captain who collapses dead in his home before his wife and children, the veteran who wakes suddenly in the night, clutches his wife, screams, and dies instantly of pulmonary embolism, the little girl playing erratically with the neighborhood kids, the mothers over dinner watch weeping that she is not the same girl since the heart medicine. 

    The oligarchy was forced by reality to acknowledge that the shots cause cardiac injuries. The data accumulates for autoimmune conditions, menstrual irregularities, miscarriages, cancer, and numerous other ailments – vertigo, tinnitus, hypertension, colitis, Bell’s palsy, full-body rash, Guillain-Barre, and of course the clots and the clots and the clots. Like most Americans, my wife and I have dozens of family and friends with these injuries. Some estimate the country is losing a Vietnam’s worth of men every year since the shots were introduced.14 Twenty-four percent reported knowing someone killed by the shots.15 What is the compound interest on this loss rate? I can name eighteen wounded or dead veterans. My battalion’s casualties from two Afghan War deployments were half that.

    Few take the shots anymore because they know. Governments and even the media now acknowledge that there are excess deaths. But, unlike the Athenians, the number is not known because the authorities refuse to do the math. The number is visible though. For instance, the Navy cannot man its ships.16 America already cannot man its fleet. There are other factors that contribute, but every organization is short people and every organization knows it is short people, for everyone in the organizations complains about it. The manpower shortage is not just a recruitment issue. The nation does not know if it is already Athens, and it should.

    The physical manpower injury is compounded by moral injury. The healthy veteran gets sudden cancer, is near dead a month later, but miraculously and thankfully survives. He is left in a daze with no cause. The wounded themselves cannot even discuss the possible cause of their injuries less the acolytes of the oligarchy shame them, which perpetuates the moral injury. Another gets clots. Repeatedly now, the same time every year, as if the mRNA made his cells permanently produce spike protein at a consistent rate in a consistent location to eventually mass and annually clot. Naturally, his wife is concerned that one of these years the just-in-time blood thinners will not work and the injury will take him.

    They live with moral injury and with no redress. Can he charge his chain of command with murder ahead of his death? Naturally, away from the acolytes, the injured discuss their physical and their moral injuries, usually with the unvaxxed, most of whom were forced out, adding to the manpower shortage. There it is spoken: Their sons will not serve. The manpower loss is compounding and multi-generational.

    The magnitude of this loss is great. In itself, it demands resolution. But the situation is actually far worse than the visible injury of our people. The risks and harms from the gene-encoded (mRNA) vaccine technology are direct from either the biotechnology itself or the use of the spike protein as the epitope. More significantly, indirect risks exist as well and at greater scale. Any single-epitope vaccine can cause the body to only generate immunity against that epitope and make a person vulnerable to the illness when the virus adapts that epitope (i.e. Antibody Dependent Enhancement). But the vaccinated also suffer from IgG4 antibody class switching.17 In this situation, the body adapts to the vaccine by treating the epitope as an allergen. This makes the person even more vulnerable, for the body ignores the virus when infected. That individual now risks becoming even sicker.

    Recall that the US funded risky research with intent to gain insight into what the People’s Republic of China (PRC) was doing with coronaviruses.18 There was a focus on spike proteins for legitimate purposes because work was being done worldwide on enhancing spike proteins to study (“study?”) them, and also because the PRC has published research intent to weaponize coronaviruses because of the spike proteins.19 It is known amongst investigators that the IC leveraged the nonprofit EcoHealth Alliance for Type II Diplomacy access into the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) to learn what its scientists were doing with epitopes like spike proteins. There is nothing inherently wrong with this; it is the IC’s job to spy. But the IgG4 matter shows that large numbers of Americans are now indefinitely vulnerable to a spike protein that emerged out of Wuhan. The biodefense oligarchy made the population vulnerable to the very thing the biodefense apparatus was operating in Wuhan to ostensibly protect us from. 

    The existence of this vulnerability is now replicated in numerous research studies. The severity in scale and duration of this vulnerability is unknown, but it should be known.

    Aside from the strategic failure this matter is, the indirect casualties of a flawed response – specifically, the lack of detailed risk analysis to the individual and to the population of a mass vaccination course of action (with additional risk from the unready mRNA technology and the spike protein epitope) – compound the direct injuries and losses and contribute to the overarching demographic damage suffered from America’s version of the Sicilian Expedition. 

    Sicily Redux.

    This is the reason the origin of SARS2 must be known. Not for retribution or reconciliation, not to prevent a man-made pandemic from occurring again. These are valid, but are not the reason. It must be known to accurately assess the demographic damage from the response, to know the near and long-term effects, to know the myocardial state of the nation’s fighting-aged men, and to know the cruel annual compound interest in deaths the mRNA decision will bring, to know the citizenry’s vulnerability to the [PRC]20 spike protein, to know the duration of our civilization’s vulnerability. 

    To those who argue that it would be too costly for America to acknowledge its role in creating SARS-CoV-2, or that America cannot afford for its enemies to know how bad the vaccine injuries in the military are – arguments I heard repeatedly in these years as a whistleblower – the potential magnitude of the screwup, Sicily Redux, our equivalent to Athens’ loss of 30,000, both the physical and moral injury, far surpasses the financial and reputational costs to admitting the truth. The failures will only exacerbate as the new administration declassifies intelligence, for the cardiac and IgG4 risks of using the spike protein as the mRNA epitope could have been extrapolated from the suppressed Department of Energy assessment had the cover-up not fouled informed risk analysis.21

    Whether America’s version of the Sicilian Expedition will have the same result as the Athenians’ remains to be seen. The parallels inform how our maritime democracy navigates its way forward. The primary lesson is that which every quality sports team and mature military formation understands: lie to yourself about yourself and you will be weak; know yourself – know your weaknesses – and you will be stronger. Or unperiled in a hundred battles, as a Chinese military philosopher once said. 

    This young man asks that a mature republic do the same. Far too many amongst us feel the losses but lie to themselves about their nature. This is yet another moral burden stacked onto the others. The situation is not healthy for the individual, or the nation.

    As the burden is felt, so is the newfound energy in the land. The Demos is in rebound. It dismantles illicit oligarchy. It returns accountability and vigor to the state. Let it not be spoiled by discounting the physical loss of an errant expedition. Let it not be further spoiled by ignoring the moral injury accrued from that failure. A great republic learns from the past.

    References

    1. BAM – Bab el Mandeb Strait. Colloquialism used by Marines and sailors.
    2. LSD-51 USS OAK HILL
    3. The Oligarchy of 400 took power in 411 BC. It transformed into the “5000” oligarchy shortly afterwards before the Athenian Navy liberated Athens and re-established democracy. https://www.britannica.com/event/Peloponnesian-War
    4. Athens replaced the citizen sailors with slaves. Thucydides reports that Greece at large was stunned that Athens endured another decade following the catastrophe.
    5. I learned about the fear of Dr. Fauci’s influence in my first month as the 2020-2021 Commandant’s Fellow at DARPA. The power structure and internal biosecurity enterprise battles were also explained to me at this time.
    6. David Asher Interview – The Vince Coglianese Show. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YI43JEUfXOQ
    7. DEFUSE project proposal: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21066966-defuse-proposal/. For the unaware reader, I uncovered the possible blueprint for SARS-CoV-2, called Project DEFUSE, while a Marine Corps fellow at DARPA in 2021. This is public information reported numerous times and included in books and a movie.
    8. Siegel: “A Guide to Understanding the Hoax of the Century.” Tablet Magazine. March 28, 2023. https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/guide-understanding-ho…
    9. See George Friedman’s 2020 book The Storm Before the Calm: America’s Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond amongst others.
    10. See Michael Lind’s “The New National American Elite” as a reference, also referenced by Siegel in Section XI of his work. https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/new-national-american-…
    11. The Athenians recorded and historically referred to their oligarchy as the Oligarchy.
    12. https://www.axios.com/2024/06/29/biden-debate-replace-advisers. There is another article where a young Harris staffer quips that Biden’s team is an oligarchy.
    13. See DRASTIC for the 2018 EcoHealth Alliance Project DEFUSE proposal to DARPA: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21066966-defuse-proposal/. See Alex Washburne for the reverse genetics system hypothesis: https://alexwasburne.substack.com/p/reverse-genetic-systems.
    14.  Canary in a COVID World, Canary House Publishing, edited by C. H. Klotz, P. 117-118
    15. “‘Died Suddenly’? More Than 1-in-4 Think Someone They Know Died From COVID-19 Vaccines – Demographics”, Rasmussen Reports, poll conducted 28-30 Dec 2022. https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/public_surveys…
    16. https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/navy-sailor-shortage-ship-readiness/3625593/; https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-24-106525; https://www.stripes.com/branches/navy/2024-09-10/navy-gao-fleet-readiness-report-15128703.html; https://news.usni.org/2024/08/22/navy-could-sideline-17-support-ships-due-to-manpower-issues
    17. See Quay and Berenson. https://x.com/quay_dr/status/1872681596400394461?mx=2; https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/very-urgent-do-covid-mrna-vaccines; Also https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12979-024-00466-9#Fig2
    18. This is known from whistleblower reporting and congressional inquiry. It is also known amongst investigators that Peter Daszak and EcoHealth Alliance performed Type II Diplomacy. There is nothing ostensibly wrong with the IC doing its job to obtain hard-to-get information. It broaches immorality when it contributes to cover-up when lack of oversight leads to a leak and corresponding pandemic.
    19. The Unnatural Origin of SARS and New Species of Man-Made Viruses as Genetic Bioweapons, 2015.
    20. Keeping this bracketed in case it turns out the spike protein was designed and/or made in the US and tested in Wuhan.
    21. I possess the security clearance to view Covid origins intelligence and analysis.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/31/2025 – 21:20

  • Gay Dragons And Black Samurai: Woke Game Companies In Crisis As Consumers Walk Away
    Gay Dragons And Black Samurai: Woke Game Companies In Crisis As Consumers Walk Away

    The entertainment sector has been at the core of the woke movement over the course of the last ten years, integrating Critical Race Theory, feminism, gay and trans propaganda, climate change hysteria, anti-gun rights messaging and pro-socialist rhetoric into their content at breakneck speed.  There has always been progressive politics in movies and TV, but this new social justice takeover was a highly coordinated tidal wave; a Blitzkrieg of hard-left ideology into every possible media space.

    One group of consumers noticed the threat very early on – Gamers picked up on the leftist subversion of their hobby almost immediately in 2013.  They would go on to launch “Gamergate” in 2014, a movement to expose the feminist hijacking of games journalism and the hobby at large.  They were punished for their foresight, accused of “misogyny”, “bigotry”, “racism” and even terrorism, but they were correct.  There was indeed a far-left agenda to dominate the gaming world and extort companies into adopting social justice propaganda. 

    The plan succeeded spectacularly.  Most corporations eventually folded and instituted DEI programs outright.  Gaming developers were some of the worst perpetrators and their products quickly became replete with woke indoctrination.  The one thing they didn’t count on, though, was a consumer revolt. 

    It’s hard to say what they expected; maybe they assumed that once the market was saturated with leftist content the average customer would give up hoping for a normal game with a good story, compelling characters and fun mechanics and simply buy whatever the critics told them to buy.  Instead, gamers stopped buying anything and walked away.

    Any product with leftist messaging, race swapping, LGBT characters or situations, etc. is exposed long before the project is released.  The more insidious developers have actually sought to stop people from reporting on the content of these games using intimidation and legal measures, but nothing they do will save them.  These businesses are, rightfully, collapsing.  

    More recent casualties include Ubisoft, which reportedly stands on the edge of financial ruin due to multiple woke failures.  Ubisoft is also sitting on perhaps on of the most woke AAA game releases of all time – Assassins Creed: Shadows.  

    The group hitched their wagon to an activist historian named Thomas Lockley with a wild tale – The supposedly “true story” of a black slave named Yasuke who traveled on a Portuguese ship to Japan and became a samurai.  Instead of making a game about a Japanese samurai in Japan’s Azuchi-Momoyama period, they instead chose to use Lockley’s research as the basis for their plot.

    (Leftists are known to be particularly hostile towards the Japanese because of their highly controlled immigration policies. Featuring a black samurai protagonist is obviously meant as a jab at Japanese culture). 

    As it turns out, Lockley’s research is likely exaggerated (or fabricated) and he has been accused by the Japanese government of potential fraud.  Yasuke was never a samurai; he was treated as an oddity by the Japanese emperor who had never seen a black man before.  He became a fixture at the emperor’s court for a short period, but was never given the title of samurai, nor did he have time to learn any of the warrior disciplines that samurai are renowned for.  The man existed, but the idea of him being a samurai is complete fiction.  

    Statements made by Ubisoft also seem to indicate that the characters of Assassins Creed will be gay, including Yasuke.  So, a black gay samurai in feudal Japan who is supposed to be an assassin?  Genius.  He wouldn’t stand out at all.

    Ubisoft is stuck with this project.  Hundreds of millions of dollars are already invested and they have delayed the release multiple times.  Most gamers are well informed of the fallacies and propaganda in the title and it is expected to bomb hard once it is finally put on the market.  The company is now engaging in mass layoffs across multiple studios, apparently in preparation of the vast sums of money they’re about to lose. 

    Another big developer that’s in the midst of an implosion is Bioware, which is now being downsized by Electronic Arts after the embarrassing release of their highly expensive Dragon Age: The Veilguard title.  The company hired gay and trans consultants and developers to inject LGBT propaganda into the fantasy project and the results were hilariously bad, including trans “dragon people” and gay pirates preaching about neo-pronouns.

    The layoffs come less than two weeks after Dragon Age game director Corinne Busche announced her own departure from BioWare, and just a week after EA said Veilguard had underperformed sales expectations.  In reality, the game was an unmitigated failure.  EA said Veilguard was “down nearly 50% from the company’s expectations.” 

    Gaming developers were some of the first people to join the woke insurrection of American media, so it’s fitting that they are now among the first people to go bankrupt and lose their jobs because of it.  Get Woke, Go Broke.

    Hopefully, these collapsing companies will stand as a smoldering reminder that the consumer runs the show, not the creators.  The free market is still a thing, and it decides if a game is going to succeed or crash and burn.  The gaming industry in its hubris has been begging for a slap in the face for years, and now they have it. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/31/2025 – 20:55

  • Top DOJ Official Resigns After Attempted Reassignment
    Top DOJ Official Resigns After Attempted Reassignment

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The man who led the U.S. Department of Justice’s Public Integrity Section has resigned, according to a new letter.

    Corey Amundson, who had been in charge of the section for years before the Trump administration recently reassigned him to work on immigration issues, has stepped down.

    Corey Amundson, chief of the U.S. Department of Justice’s Public Integrity Section, during a news conference in San Juan, Puerto Rico, on Aug. 4, 2022. Ricardo Arduengo/Reuters

    “I am honored and blessed to have served our country and this department for the last 23 years,” Amundson wrote in his letter to Acting Attorney General James McHenry.

    “I spent my entire professional life committed to the apolitical enforcement of the federal criminal law and to ensuring that those around me understood and embraced that central tenet of our work.”

    The Department of Justice (DOJ) did not respond to a request for comment.

    Amundson started working for the DOJ out of Louisiana in 2002, according to his LinkedIn profile. He shifted to Washington about 10 years ago.

    The profile lists his experience with the DOJ as ending in 2025.

    Amundson was tapped in 2019 during Trump’s first term to become chief of the DOJ’s Public Integrity Section. That put him in charge of overseeing public corruption and other politically sensitive investigations.

    Amundson is one of an estimated 20 career officials inside the DOJ to be reassigned to a new Sanctuary City Working Group inside the associate attorney general’s office.

    At least two of those officials, Amundson and George Toscas from the National Security Division, had some involvement in the two criminal investigations against Trump.

    Former special counsel Jack Smith said in his final report that his team “consulted regularly” with the Public Integrity Section on topics such as serving subpoenas, bringing election fraud charges, and a U.S. Constitution clause that provides immunity to members of Congress who are furthering legislative acts.

    Amundson’s resignation letter did not make reference to his section’s role in the Trump cases.

    However, it cited a number of other high-profile cases he helped oversee, including the public corruption cases against Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.), and Fugees hip hop group member Prakazrel Michel.

    The DOJ, in addition to the recent reassignments, recently fired a number of officials who worked on Smith’s team.

    The reassignments and terminations have drawn scrutiny from Democrats, who expressed concern about the treatment of individuals they said were “excellent career prosecutors.”

    The moves contradicted Trump’s “repeated pledges to maintain a merit-based system for government employment,” Reps. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) and Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) said in a letter to DOJ officials.

    “By removing them from their positions in this hasty and unprincipled way, you have very likely violated longstanding federal laws,” they added later.

    The DOJ has not responded to an inquiry about the letter.

    Jacob Burg and Reuters contributed to this report.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/31/2025 – 20:30

  • Better Than Ozempic? How To Engage The Vagus Nerve For Weight Loss
    Better Than Ozempic? How To Engage The Vagus Nerve For Weight Loss

    Authored by Zena le Roux via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    We often hear about the brain-gut connection and how the vagus nerve keeps our mood in check. But did you know that this same nerve quietly shapes our metabolism every day?

    The vagus nerve acts as a metabolic control center, affecting hunger, fullness levels, weight, and blood sugar. The effect of vagal stimulation on weight loss is an emerging area of interest.

    Guiding Metabolism

    The vagus nerve helps signal feelings of fullness after eating by communicating signals from the gut to the brain. It regulates hunger hormones (such as leptin), influencing food choices and satiety levels. Stimulating this nerve may, therefore, offer a less invasive alternative to traditional bariatric surgery for weight loss.

    “A well-functioning vagus nerve can help regulate appetite and prevent overeating, which is key for maintaining a healthy metabolic state,“ Nasha Winters, a naturopathic doctor and integrative oncology specialist, told The Epoch Times. ”This is the ‘I’ve had enough’ signal, but even goes further to the ‘I am enough’ signal.”

    The vagus nerve connects the central nervous system (brain and spinal cord) with organs that help regulate the absorption of food and storage of nutrients. It innervates organ systems that contribute to metabolism, ensure energy balance, and prevent fluctuations in body weight.

    This nerve is involved in blood glucose regulation by prompting the pancreas to release insulin. It also signals the liver to store and release glucose and triggers the release of bile and digestive enzymes.

    Another reason that vagus nerve stimulation may support weight management and metabolic health is its ability to reduce inflammation, a significant driver of metabolic syndrome. Metabolic syndrome refers to conditions—including high blood sugar, high blood pressure, unhealthy cholesterol levels, and excess belly fat—that together increase the risk of heart disease, diabetes, and stroke.

    Vagus Nerve Therapy for Weight Loss

    Device-based vagus nerve stimulation (VNS) is often used to improve metabolism. Transcutaneous vagus nerve stimulation (tVNS) is a great option, Jodi Duval, an Australia-based naturopathic physician and owner of Revital Health, told The Epoch Times. The tVNS method delivers gentle electrical impulses and sends signals through the ear to regulate hunger and digestion.

    Other alternative and complementary therapies have also been shown to suppress inflammation and increase vagus nerve activity. These approaches include acupuncture and biofeedback, a method that uses sensors to help you learn to control automatic body functions. Calming the nervous system in this way helps maintain stable blood glucose levels and optimize digestion, both essential for efficient metabolic function. Meditation has also been suggested for the clinical management of metabolic syndrome and obesity.

    Another promising type of vagal nerve therapy for weight loss is vagal nerve blocking, often referred to as VBLOC therapy, according to Lena Beal, a registered dietitian nutritionist and spokesperson for the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics.

    VBLOC transmits electrical pulses to the vagus nerve at regular intervals, interrupting normal signaling between the brain and the stomach and decreasing hunger and food intake. Because of its pulsed nature, VBLOC does not affect other VNS outcomes, such as reduced inflammation or stabilized blood sugar.

    “The higher the electrical current of the stimulator, the greater the weight loss, with some cases leading to significant weight loss,” Beal told The Epoch Times.

    The effects of VNS appear to be more noticeable in individuals with a higher body mass index (BMI) or those classified as obese.

    Vagus Nerve Therapy Versus Ozempic

    Vagus nerve therapy and semaglutide (found in Ozempic and Wegovy), the trending weight-loss drug, tackle weight loss in very different ways, Duval said.

    “Ozempic mimics a natural hormone that controls blood sugar and appetite, making it a potent tool for rapid weight loss,“ she said. “However, it is a medication, meaning it can come with side effects and is not normally a long-term solution for everyone.”

    Common adverse effects of semaglutide include nausea, diarrhea, constipation, and stomach pain.

    Vagus nerve stimulation, in contrast, works more subtly by restoring the body’s natural balance. It may take longer to see results, but it addresses the root causes of metabolic dysfunction, such as stress and inflammation, and comes with added benefits such as improved mood and digestion, Duval said.

    “It’s a long-term investment in overall health rather than a quick fix,” she said.

    tVNS

    • Cost: $1,000 to $2,500 for the device, plus additional fees for sessions or consultations
    • Average Weight Loss: 3 percent to 5 percent
    • Side Effects: skin irritation, headache, and dizziness

    VBLOC

    • Cost: between $18,000 and $22,000 per year
    • Average Weight Loss: about 8.5 percent
    • Side Effects: indigestion, heartburn, abdominal pain

    Ozempic and Wegovy

    • Approved For: Type 2 diabetes (Ozempic); BMI greater than 30, or BMI greater than 27 with other medical conditions related to obesity (Wegovy)
    • Cost: $12,000 to $15,000 per year
    • Average Weight Loss: about 12 percent
    • Side Effects: gastrointestinal upset (nausea, diarrhea, bloating), retinal damage, and pancreas inflammation
    • People often partially regain weight when the medication is discontinued.

    “The vagus nerve acts as the body’s communication superhighway, connecting the brain and the gut,” Duval said. “Think of it as your body’s internal coach, softly reminding you when it’s time to rest and digest. Essentially, the vagus nerve is your internal guide, helping keep your metabolism balanced and healthy.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/31/2025 – 20:05

  • Trump Says DC Black Hawk "Was Flying Too High… By A Lot"
    Trump Says DC Black Hawk “Was Flying Too High… By A Lot”

    Update (0825ET): President Trump has chimed in, confirming the altitude of the Black Hawk was too high…

    Additionally, it appears the chopper had a few close-calls that night…

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    While there are countless facts still left to be uncovered and scrutinized, there’s an early indication that the worst US air disaster since 9/11 may have resulted from a flight-path deviation by the Army helicopter that collided with a passenger jet landing at Washington’s Reagan National Airport. Remarkably, it appears an identical disaster may have been narrowly avoided just one day earlier, when an airline pilot chose to abort landing after deeming another helicopter was dangerously close. Control-tower staffing is also emerging as a major concern — including a decision to allow one controller to leave work early. 

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    Based on a determination of the UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter’s last location before colliding with American Airlines 5342 from Wichita, the Army chopper was flying above its authorized flight path, according to anonymous sources who spoke to the New York Times. The American CRJ300 stopped transmitting tracking data at 375 feet — suggesting impact occurred far above the 200-foot ceiling imposed on helicopters in that area. 

    The wreckage of the Army UH-60 Black Hawk that collided with American Airlines Flight 5342 on Wednesday night, killing 67 (EPA)

    The Black Hawk was reportedly under the command of a female pilot with more than 500 hours of flight time. The male instructor pilot had more than 1,000 hours, while the crew chief is also said to have logged hundreds of hours. Given the shorter duration of helicopter flights, those hours are substantial, according to Jonathan Koziol, a retired Army chopper pilot who’s assigned to the Unified Command Post that’s been organized to coordinate the post-disaster efforts at the airport.

    The Army has not released the names of the crew members, but the names of the two males aboard the Black Hawk have emerged via other channels: Staff Sgt. Ryan O’Hara and Chief Warrant Officer 2 Andrew Eaves. All were assigned to Bravo Company, 12th Combat Aviation Battalion, headquartered at nearby Fort Belvoir.

    While there are many social media posts purporting to identify the female pilot as a male-to-female trans National Guard member who on Tuesday publicized his transition, ZeroHedge cannot find authoritative confirmation of those claims as this article is being written. On Monday, President Trump issued an executive order barring transgender people from openly serving in the military. Update: The trans pilot in question, Jo Ellis, has released a video confirming he is still alive and was not piloting the Black Hawk. 

    An American Airlines flight departs Reagan National as salvage operations take place near the runway (Maansi Srivastava/ New York Times)

    The Army says the crew was conducting a routine nighttime qualification flight, with the focus on safely navigating helicopter routes in and around Washington. However, more specifically, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said the crew was training for a “continuity of government mission.” That’s the name given for a response to an attack on the capital, or a major disaster that hits the city. In such an event, helicopters would be used to evacuate senior federal officials. The crashed helicopter was a standard UH-60; the battalion also flies the VH-60M variant: Distinguished by its gold top, it’s used for VIP transport. 

    “Gold-topped” VH-60M versions of the Black Hawk are used to transport high-ranking military and defense officials around Washington

    Every day, more than a hundred helicopters buzz around Reagan National’s flight paths. Roughly 24 hours before Wednesday’s catastrophe, one of those helicopters alarmed the pilot of another commercial flight to the extent she aborted landing and went around. There are no reports on the type of helicopter.   

    A female voice in the cockpit of Republic Airways Flight 4514 informed the tower of the problem at roughly 8:05 p.m. Tuesday, according to the audio recording of air traffic control traffic. The plane took a sharp turn to the west, made a loop to try to make a second approach, and safely landed at 8:16 p.m., flight tracking records indicate. — Washington Post

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    Meanwhile, concerning details have also emerged about the workloads assigned to the Reagan National air traffic controllers at the time of Wednesday night’s crash that killed all 67 aboard the two aircraft. Staffing was “not normal for the time of day and volume of traffic,” according to a preliminary FAA document reviewed by the New York Times. 

    Under normal staffing, one air traffic controller is responsible for helicopter traffic, while another guides landing and departing planes. However, on Wednesday night, one man was juggling both responsibilities. According to the Times, that’s because a supervisor allowed a different air traffic controller to leave before that individual’s shift had ended. There are several other factors that could have contributed to the accident. Among them: 

    • It’s not clear if the Black Hawk pilot was using night vision goggles, which can limit peripheral vision and depth perception, while also being problematic in an urban environment with its abundant lights. 

    • Given the angles of the two flight paths, city lights may have camouflaged the lights of the American Airlines jet. “Going beak-to-beak at night, the lights of the [jet] tend to blend in with the city lights behind [it],” notes aviation YouTuber “blancolirio” in a detailed analysis of Wednesday’s scenario. “Another problem when you’re going head to head with each other is — if there’s no lateral movement in the windscreen — that light [of the other aircraft] is very hard to detect.” 

    • Potential miscommunication: While the tower asked the Black Hawk (“PAT25”) if it had the American Airlines “CRJ” (Canadair Regional Jet) in sight, some are speculating the Army pilots thought the controller was referring to a jet that was taking off to their right, rather than the doomed jet that was landing from their left. Others think they may have been looking at another jet on approach — behind American 5342.  

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    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/31/2025 – 19:25

  • Watch: Dramatic Footage Show Private Jet Crashing In Northeast Philadelphia
    Watch: Dramatic Footage Show Private Jet Crashing In Northeast Philadelphia

    Dramatic footage has surfaced on X showing a Learjet 55, operated by Jet Rescue Air Ambulance, crashing in Northeast Philadelphia.

    “This evening, a Learjet 55 (XA-UCI) crashed shortly after takeoff from Northeast Philadelphia Airport. The flight departed at 23:06 UTC, reaching a maximum altitude of 1,650 ft at 23:06:54. Granular ADS-B data shows the last message from the aircraft,” flight tracking website Flightradar24 wrote on X. 

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    Northeast Philadelphia Airport Tower: “We have a lost aircraft.” 

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    A whole bunch of videos from various angles showing the Learjet crash have been uploaded on X.

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     CBS News Philadelphia reported that the crash occurred near Roosevelt Boulevard and Cottman Avenue.

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    Several Philadelphia media outlets are reporting several dead. 

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    “We are offering all Commonwealth resources as they respond to the small private plane crash in Northeast Philly,” Governor Josh Shapiro wrote on X. 

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    What the hell is happening in American aviation this week: 

    Developing…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/31/2025 – 19:24

  • Replace The Income Tax With Tariffs?
    Replace The Income Tax With Tariffs?

    Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Commentary

    There was a time, before 1913, when you could keep every penny you earned. You did not have to file with the federal government, telling them what you earned and giving the feds their cut. Your finances were your business and no one else’s. You had the right to earn, own, and keep property, and it was sacrosanct, guaranteed by U.S. law and tradition.

    Andrii Yalanskyi/Shutterstock

    There were no audits, investigations, account freezes, withholdings, or any other forms of payment. There was your productivity and you and that’s all.

    How was the government funded? It earned revenue through tariffs. These are paid directly by importers and indirectly by producers and consumers if the costs can be passed through. As strategies for gaining revenue, this approach is relatively noninvasive. It left the population alone.

    Back in those days, however, the federal government barely existed as compared with today. More precisely, in real terms, the federal government in 1885 spent in inflation-adjusted dollars about 0.05 percent of what it spends today. Even then, people believed that it was too big and wanted it cut back to size.

    Donald Trump has recently been schooling people in the history of revenue strategies and he is teaching something that people have not known. He has explained how this period of American history saw the greatest amount of economic growth we’ve ever seen. He is correct about that and he is also correct that this was the period of the tariff.

    The cause and effect, however, is murky. The main themes of this period were freedom and sound money. The dollar was governed by the gold standard and there was no central bank. The federal government itself had no presence in the life of the American family or typical American business. Those facts more than tariffs account for the difference between then and now.

    As an aside, I cannot remember another U.S. president having as clear an opinion on 19th-century economic history. Most comments by presidents have been limited to pieties about the Founding Fathers or Lincoln but skip over details concerning revenue sources or controversies concerning national banks and the like. Trump is clearly different, highly confident in these details of history that are lost even on most economists.

    Trump has explained that the income tax came along in 1913 as a replacement for the tariff. That is correct in design but the historical reality was slightly different. Tariffs were not abolished entirely. The income tax just became a second and additional source of revenue. Then the Great War came, financed in large part by the central bank (the Federal Reserve) that was created the same year.

    The income tax and the Fed became the financial source of Leviathan power. Both came about in 1913, along with the direct election of Senators that blew up the bicameral structure of Congress and put the big cities in charge of America’s equivalent of the House of Lords.

    Trump’s history lesson opens up the opportunity to examine all of this more closely. In 19th-century terms, he seems to be siding with the Hamilton faction inherited by Henry Clay, the Senator from Virginia who advocated what came to be called “the American System.” This was a policy of protective tariffs, a national bank, and federal subsidies for internal improvements to promote economic growth and national cohesion.

    That’s a pretty good summary of what seems to be Trump’s position. In historical terms, the Clay view contrasted with the Jeffersonian view, which favored a tiny government, free trade, no national bank, no industrial subsidies, and a society of small farmers to serve as the economic engine.

    These days, the debates between the Jeffersonians and Hamiltonians seem far less relevant to the current situation. Both Hamilton and Clay would be appalled by the size and scope of government power, and would happily link arms with Jefferson and John Randolph of Roanoke to cut the beast down to size. That seems to be the actual ambition of Trump, to be an agent of change that makes the federal government manageable again.

    As part of this, Trump has floated the idea of abolishing the income tax. And all the people said: yes! But of course that would end in denying vast amounts of revenue to the federal government. No matter how you do the math, there is simply no way that the tariff can make up the difference. The only solution, then, is massive cuts in government spending, which people like Elon Musk have promised but we are waiting to see the plans.

    Again, the last time government was funded entirely by tariffs, government spending was a mere 0.05 percent of what it is today. If we are going to cut it back that much, fantastic, but nothing like that has happened in American history, nothing even close to that. Usually what Washington calls cuts are really just cuts in the rate of increase of spending.

    Without real cuts, and with a curbing or elimination of the income tax, the United States merely ends up with more debt that will be financed by the Federal Reserve and that results in more inflation. Inflation is nothing but a different and more surreptitious form of taxation. Instead of taking money out of your bank account directly, government simply reduces the purchasing power of the dollar itself.

    Let’s return to this idea of abolishing the income tax. The best case for that idea ever made was written by a great journalist named Frank Chodorov (1887–1966) and his wonderful book “The Income Tax: Root of All Evil.” He wrote about the 16th Amendment to the Constitution:

    “[It] puts no limit on governmental confiscation. The government can, under the law, take everything the citizen earns, even to the extent of depriving him of all above mere subsistence, which it must allow him in order that he may produce something to be confiscated. Whichever way you turn this amendment, you come up with the fact that it gives the government a prior lien on all the property produced by its subjects. In short, when this amendment became part of the Constitution, in 1913, the absolute right of property in the United States was violated.”

    Further: “In name, it was a tax reform. In point of fact, it was a revolution. For the Sixteenth Amendment corroded the American concept of natural rights; ultimately reduced the American citizen to a status of subject, so much so that he is not aware of it; enhanced Executive power to the point of reducing Congress to innocuity; and enabled the central government to bribe the states, once independent units, into subservience. No kingship in the history of the world ever exercised more power than our Presidency, or had more of the people’s wealth at its disposal. We have retained the forms and phrases of a republic, but in reality we are living under an oligarchy, not of courtesans, but of bureaucrats.”

    The abolition of the income tax would restore property rights, restore rights to enterprise, and restore the privacy of American citizens not to be spied on and pillaged by arbitrary government power.

    The constituency that would favor such a thing in America is practically everyone. Why, then, has no president ever promoted such an idea? Precisely because doing so is incredibly enlightening and consciousness-raising. It forces the realization on the part of the American people that the government is living at their expense. For any political establishment, lording over a population that is newly aware of this is a dangerous proposition.

    There is no getting around the math. If we really are talking about getting rid of income taxes, there is no tariff high enough to make up the difference. There is no choice but to cut spending dramatically. The budget freeze, the freeze on new hires, the freeze on outgoing grants—all of this point in the right direction. We cannot rule out the possibility that the Trump administration will take us to where we need to go.

    Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/31/2025 – 19:15

  • NYPD Searching For 6 Suspects Who Stole An MTA Train From Brooklyn And Took It For A "Joyride"
    NYPD Searching For 6 Suspects Who Stole An MTA Train From Brooklyn And Took It For A “Joyride”

    The monetary black hole that is the MTA apparently hasn’t figured out a way to secure its property, despite what appears to be an incessant, neverending need for additional cash.

    That’s because the NYPD is now searching for six suspects who allegedly stole an R train from a Brooklyn storage yard and took it for a joyride, traveling down the tracks.

    The incident occurred around 10 p.m. Saturday near the 71st Avenue station in Forest Hills, Queens, according to Fox 5.

    Fox reported that the suspects operated the train and vandalized its camera by marking the glass panels. No arrests or injuries have been reported. Their identities and whereabouts after leaving the train remain unknown.

    ABC reported that surveillance footage shows the hooded suspects leaving the conductor’s compartment and walking through the empty train.

    Police are offering a $3,500 reward for information, as the group is wanted for reckless endangerment. The joyride began around 10 p.m. Saturday at Brooklyn’s 36th Street and 4th Avenue station, but officials haven’t disclosed how far they traveled.

    The suspects fled on foot after vandalizing the train’s camera panels.

    No sooner did we mumble “We’re sure at some point this will be used as some type of impetus for another fare hike…” under our breath than we read that MTA Chairman Janno Lieber criticized the security failures – and then urged investment in better protections beyond basic locks.

    How soon until we’re paying congestion tolls just to walk around in Manhattan?

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/31/2025 – 18:50

  • December FAA Report Cites "Urgent Need To Modernize Air Traffic Systems"
    December FAA Report Cites “Urgent Need To Modernize Air Traffic Systems”

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    Over 60 people died in a preventable plane crash…

    Urgent FAA Actions Are Needed to Modernize Aging Systems

    The Government Accountability Office (GAO) on Air Traffic Control says Urgent FAA Actions Are Needed to Modernize Aging Systems

    FAA had 64 ongoing investments aimed at modernizing 90 of the 105 unsustainable and potentially unsustainable systems; however, the agency has been slow to modernize the most critical and at-risk systems. Specifically, when considering age, sustainability ratings, operational impact level, and expected date of modernization for each system, as of May 2024, FAA had 17 systems that were especially concerning. The investments intended to modernize these systems were not planned to be completed for at least 6 years. In some cases, they were not to be completed for at least 10 years. In addition, FAA did not have ongoing investments associated with four of these critical systems.

    A contributing factor to the lengthy implementation schedules is that FAA does not always ensure that investments are organized in manageable segments.

    Until FAA takes urgent action to reduce the time frames to replace critical and at-risk ATC systems, it will continue to rely on a large percentage of unsustainable systems to perform critical functions for safe air travel. This reliance occurs at a time when air traffic is expected to increase each year.

    FAA has had longstanding challenges with maintaining aging ATC systems.

    For example, the Notice to Air Missions system, which enables air traffic controllers to provide real-time updates to aircraft crew about critical flying situations relating to issues such as weather, congestion, and safety, is over 30 years old.

    For over 4 decades we have reported on challenges facing FAA’s modernization of its ATC systems.

    About One-Third of FAA ATC Systems Are Considered Unsustainable

    • During fiscal year 2023, FAA determined that of its 138 ATC systems, 51 (37 percent) were unsustainable and 54 (39 percent) were potentially unsustainable.

    • FAA categorizes its ATC systems by criticality. Of the 105 unsustainable or potentially unsustainable ATC systems,

    • 29 unsustainable and 29 potentially unsustainable systems have a critical operational impact on the safety and efficiency of the national airspace

    • 16 unsustainable and 9 potentially unsustainable systems have a moderate operational impact on the safety and efficiency of the national airspace

    • 6 unsustainable and 16 potentially unsustainable systems were mission support systems and were not considered critical.

    Aging Components of Systems

    •  73 systems were deployed over 20 years ago, with 40 being deployed over 30 years ago, and six of those deployed over 60 years ago.

    • 32 systems were implemented within the past 20 years

    • Only four systems as recently as 2020.

    GAO Analysis of FAA Systems

    Top Issues: System Obsolescence and Finding Replacement Parts

    According to a February 2024 response from FAA technicians, the top issue facing the agency is system obsolescence and difficulty in finding replacement parts. 

    The response also indicated that inadequate staffing of FAA facilities posed a challenge to maintaining systems because some technicians were responsible for areas spanning hundreds of miles.

    FAA has been slow to modernize some of the most critical and at-risk systems. Specifically, when considering age, sustainability ratings, operational impact level, and expected date of modernization or replacement for each system, as of May 2024, FAA had 17 systems that were especially concerning. The 17 systems range from as few as 2 years old to as many as 50 years old, are unsustainable, and are critical to the safety and efficiency of the national airspace. However, the investments intended to modernize or replace these 17 systems are not planned to be completed for at least 6 more years. In some cases, they were not to be completed for at least 10 years.

    Without near-term modernization plans for these systems, critical ATC operations that these systems support may continue to be at-risk for over a decade before being modernized or replaced. Specifically, FAA can take well over a decade to implement modernization investments once initiated.

    GAO Summary

    In summary, FAA’s reliance on a large percentage of aging and unsustainable or potentially unsustainable ATC systems introduces risks to FAA’s ability to ensure the safe, orderly, and expeditious flow of up to 50,000 flights per day.

    Yesterday we saw the result.

    It’s Time to Privatize Air-Traffic Control

    On May 10, 2023, the Bloomberg editorial board said It’s Time to Privatize Air-Traffic Control

    It’s no accident that controllers still track planes with little slips of paper. Congress is making the FAA’s job all but impossible.

    At least eight serious safety incidents have occurred at US airports so far this year, including a near-miss on Feb. 4 when a FedEx Corp. cargo jet flew within 100 feet of a Southwest Airlines Co. passenger flight outside Austin. A few days later, an Air Canada Rouge plane was cleared for takeoff at Sarasota Bradenton International Airport just as an American Airlines Group Inc. jet was given permission to land — on the same runway. The American crew “self-initiated” a go-around to avert catastrophe.

    Under pressure from Congress, the FAA convened a hearing on the mishaps in March, then established an independent team to make recommendations. Such steps are missing the bigger picture: The government shouldn’t be operating the country’s air-traffic-control system.

    Outdated technology has plagued the FAA for decades. Notoriously, US air-traffic controllers still use strips of paper to track planes in their vicinity. The agency chronically struggles to hire technical staff. Its main system for preventing collisions between planes and ground traffic is decades old, short of spare parts, and prone to prolonged failures. An outage last year almost led to tragedy when a truck ambled onto the runway at Connecticut’s Bradley International Airport and narrowly missed an incoming plane.

    Similar problems have bedeviled the FAA’s emergency-alert system, called Notam, first adopted in 1947. It’s meant to warn of potential hazards along a planned flight route. Yet its notices are composed in all-caps block text, employ arcane codes and abbreviations, and can be so riddled with irrelevant information that pilots overlook crucial alerts. On Jan. 11, the Notam system failed entirely, leading to thousands of flight delays. A planned modernization may not be completed until sometime in the 2030s.

    The problem with the Bloomberg recommendation is the same problem with public schools.

    We sure don’t want unions running the system either based on seniority, not merit and competence.

    Not Exaggerations

    The online systems look like the antiquated game of asteroids.

    Rep. Thomas Massie provides this Tragic Video.

    Please give it a play. A portion of the lead image is from that video.

    A friend writes “Almost nobody realizes we are relying on a dinosaur technology when they step on a plane.”

    Floppy Disks In Planes and Trains

    On May 15, 2024 ZdNet commented on Floppy Disk Usage.

    As computer networking and new storage formats like USB flash drives and memory cards emerged, the floppy disk’s reign waned in the mid-to-late 1990s. The end of the floppy disk era came with the introduction of the floppy-less iMac in 1998.

    By the early 2000s, floppy disks had become increasingly rare, used primarily with legacy hardware and industrial equipment. Sony manufactured the last new floppy disk in 2011.

    Some older Boeing 747 models still use floppy disks to load critical navigation database updates and software into their avionics systems. Indeed, Tom Persky, the president of floppydisk.com, which sells and recycles floppy disks, said in 2022 that the airline industry remains one of his biggest customers.

    Closer to the ground, in San Francisco, the Muni Metro light railway, which launched in 1980, won’t start up each morning unless its Automatic Train Control System staff is booted up with a floppy. Why? It has no hard drive and it’s too unstable to be left on, so every morning, in goes the disk, and off goes the trains. It will be replaced, though… eventually. Currently, the updated replacement project is scheduled to be completed in 2033/4.

    The number of near misses is high and rising. It’s a wonder we haven’t had more accidents.

    Sheesh, we cannot even find replacement parts including floppy disks.

    Questions Abound

    How much did we spend on DEI, the Green New Deal, Climate Change, and FAA improvements in the past four years?

    If I am not mistaken we have had seriously misguided priorities in the last four years. And in relation to the FAA, we’ve been lucky with near misses for decades.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/31/2025 – 18:25

  • US 'In Contact' With Russia, Trump Confirms
    US ‘In Contact’ With Russia, Trump Confirms

    President Donald Trump has acknowledged that the United States and Russia are “in contact” related to the tragic events of the American Airlines passenger plane colliding with a US Army Black Hawk helicopter Wednesday evening near Reagan National airport in Washington D.C.

    All 64 passengers and crew members aboard Flight 5342 perished, while the three US servicemembers on board the H-60 Black Hawk were killed. No one survived the crash in the Potomac River. Among the 16 figure-skaters on board, two well-known skating coaches who were Russian nationals died: Evgenia Shishkova and Vadim Naumov.

    Trump in a Thursday briefing told reporters: “We had a Russian contingent – some very talented people – unfortunately on that plane,” emphasizing of the deadly tragedy that he’s “Very, very sorry about that.”

    Via Reuters

    “We’ve already been in contact with Russia,” Trump said in response to a question from a reporter. He pledged that the the US “will facilitate” the transfer of the remains of any Russian nationals who died in the crash, and that sanctions and flight bans into Russia will not impact this.

    The Kremlin has since clarified that this did not involve direct contact between Presidents Putin and Trump.

    Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has since indicated there may have been up to four Russian citizens on board the plane when it went down: “According to our embassy, three victims of this plane crash had Russian passports. There is confirmation regarding another, a fourth person who could hold a Russian passport, this information is currently being verified,” the diplomat said.

    Despite Trump’s positive words of condolence, Zakharova strongly suggested that the US side hasn’t been very responsive to Russian requests:

    “Our embassy is communicating with the US Department of State on the entire range of issues,” Zakharova assured reporters, even as it “looks like a one-way communication.” The Russian embassy has been asking questions, “but we have not received substantive responses so far. However, there is communication, and we have been given some general replies,” she explained.

    “We are grateful to the American authorities, with whom we are in constant contact, for the words of support expressed to the families of the victims and their readiness to help with the transfer of the remains to their homeland,” the Russian embassy said in a statement on Thursday.

    Plane crash victims Evgenia Shishkova and Vadim Naumov. Getty Images

    The question of how quickly Trump and Putin might directly engage in frank dialogue related to seeking to wind down the Ukraine war is being watched by many.

    There’s a likelihood of lower level talks which could hammer out the parameters of such initial dialogue. But the expected Trump-Putin phone call quickly on the heels of Trump’s inauguration doesn’t appear to have happened yet.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/31/2025 – 18:00

  • China's Boldest Oil Hunt Yet
    China’s Boldest Oil Hunt Yet

    By Irina Slav of OilPrice.com

    In October last year, China’s CNOOC reported record oil and gas production from a field called Deep Sea #1. The field was the company’s first ultra-deep project, an example of the pursuit of new, untapped resources that lie deeper under the sea. Yet it’s not only ultradeep offshore drilling that the Chinese are focusing on. Right now, China is building a new rig that should be able to drill much deeper than any other rig-onshore.

    Led by the Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, the project involves a number of research institutions and companies. Its purpose: to develop a smart drilling rig that could reach depths of 15,000 meters, or about 50,000 feet.

    “The Deep Earth National Science and Technology Megaproject is a forward-looking strategy that aligns with global scientific frontiers while ensuring national energy and resource security,” state news outlet Xinhua said, as quoted by the South China Morning Post.

    Scientific frontiers aside, it’s all about the oil and gas and other mineral resources. That was the purpose of a CNPC project in the Tarim Basin in Northwestern China, where the state oil major experimented with drilling depths of up to 11,000 meters. The drilling began in 2023. Last year, after 279 days of drilling, the drill broke the 10,000-meter mark, per Chinese media reports, making the well the deepest ever drilled in the country. It was also the deepest well drilled in Asia—and the fastest drilled well of over 10,000 meters. The well was completed in March last year.

    Drilling ultra-deep wells is certainly a challenging endeavor.

    The deeper you go, the hotter it gets, and this can interfere with the process, which is why ultradeep drilling is not yet standard practice.

    However, the fact that Chinese energy companies and researchers teamed up on the subject is telling—and it tells us that China is prepared to go to these lengths to increase the degree of self-sufficiency in the energy space.

    The Shendi Take 1 well—the one that CNPC drilled in the Tarim Basin—cuts through 13 layers of rock, reaching formations that are 500 million years old. The new drill that the Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences-led team is developing will make it possible to cut even deeper into the Earth’s crust and tap new oil and gas. And there is lots of these at such depths.

    The Shendi Take 1 well is certainly an achievement. But it is not the deepest well drilled in the world. That honor falls to the Chayvo well, drilled offshore Russia’s Sakhalin island by a local subsidiary of Exxon—the operator of the Sakhalin-1 project. The Chayvo well exceeds 12,000 meters in depth, which makes it 15 times longer than the world’s tallest building, Dubai’s Burj Khalifa. The deposit, which the well was drilled into, holds an estimated 2.3 billion barrels of crude oil and 480 billion cu m of natural gas.

    This is the ultimate reason for the ultra-deep drilling exercises: finding new hydrocarbon resources. Because the biggest energy challenge that human civilization faces—as articulated by “Landman” protagonist Tommy Norris—is whether we would find an alternative before it runs out. There are schools of thought that argue there is in fact an unending supply of hydrocarbons in the Earth’s crust. While that remains debatable, it is a fact that the world’s undiscovered oil and gas resources lie in greater depths than previously considered standard. Researching ultra-deep drilling is an example of adaptation to the changing realities of energy supply.

    China is the most obvious candidate for such research and experiments. The largest crude oil and gas importer in the world has substantial local reserves of hydrocarbons, but reaching them is more challenging than it is, say, in the Permian. Hence the concerted investment in ultra-deep drilling and the pursuit of “leading-edge scientific breakthroughs as soon as possible” – even as China cements its dominance in the wind and solar sector.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/31/2025 – 17:40

  • Treasury Dept's Highest-Ranking Career Official Rage-Quits After Musk's DOGE Team Probes Payment System
    Treasury Dept’s Highest-Ranking Career Official Rage-Quits After Musk’s DOGE Team Probes Payment System

    The Treasury Department’s highest-ranking career official quit after a clash with aides of Elon Musk over access to sensitive payment systems, according to the Washington Post, citing (of course), three anonymous sources.

    David A. Lebryk, a decades-long Treasury official who President Trump named as acting secretary upon taking office last week, announced his retirement in a Friday email to colleagues. According to the report, Lebryk had a dispute with Musk surrogates over access to the US government’s payment system used to disburse trillions of dollars every year.

    [Imagine Musk and team uncover decades of improper payments and shady dealings?]

    The Musk surrogates are affiliated with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), and have been asking since the election for access to the system, according to the report. The requests were reiterated after Trump’s inauguration.

    After Trump pick Scott Bessent was confirmed as Treasury Secretary on Monday, Lebryk ceased to be acting agency head.

    The payment system in question is run by a handful of career officials within the Bureau of the Fiscal Service – which controls the flow of more than $6 trillion annually to households, businesses, and other entities nationwide – and includes Social Security, Medicare, federal salaries, payments to government contractors, tax refunds, grant recipients, and more.

    The clash is the latest incident involving career ‘deep state’ bureaucrats vs. the Trump administration. And of course, WaPo, the CIA’s favorite tentacle, frames it as follows:

    The clash reflects an intensifying battle between Musk and the federal bureaucracy as the Trump administration nears the conclusion of its second week. Musk has sought to exert sweeping control over the inner workings of the U.S. government, installing longtime surrogates at several agencies, including the Office of Personnel Management, which essentially handles federal human resources, and the General Services Administration, which manages real estate. (Musk was seen on Thursday visiting GSA, according to two other people familiar with his whereabouts, who also spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe internal matters. That visit was first reported by the New York Times.) His Department of Government Efficiency, originally conceived as a nongovernmental panel, has since replaced the U.S. Digital Service.

    Translation:

    Unfortunately for the career bureaucrats, Trump signed an executive order instructing all agencies to ensure DOGE has “full and prompt access to all unclassified agency records, software systems, and IT systems,” which appear to include the Treasury payment systems.

    Musk has previously slammed rising national debt as an existential threat to the country, while DOGE has already made progress in rooting out bullshit programs established by Democrat administrations.

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    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/31/2025 – 17:20

  • Long Awaited JFK Files Could Be Released Soon
    Long Awaited JFK Files Could Be Released Soon

    Authored by Travis Gillmore via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The Director of National Intelligence and the U.S. Attorney General have until Feb. 7 to present a full disclosure plan for the records pertaining to the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, according to an executive order signed by President Donald Trump on Jan. 23.

    President John F. Kennedy presents the Congressional Gold Medal to Robert Frost. (Abbie Rowe. White House Photographs. John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum, Boston.) Public Domain

    “I have now determined that the continued redaction and withholding of information from records pertaining to the assassination of President John F. Kennedy is not consistent with the public interest, and the release of these records is long overdue,” Trump wrote in the order.

    Since Kennedy was shot in Dallas on Nov. 22, 1963, some have speculated about what the government knows, and the slow release of documents has only heightened suspicions, according to those calling for declassification.

    According to the National Archives, more than 5 million documents, photographs, and other artifacts related to the assassination are in the government’s possession.

    Approximately 99 percent of the records are available for the public to review, although around 5,000 documents remain sealed or redacted.

    Some have additionally questioned the official narratives regarding the assassinations of Robert F. Kennedy and Martin Luther King, Jr.. The order also calls for King’s records to be released—with the plans due by early March.

    “Their families and the American people deserve transparency and truth,” Trump’s order states. “It is in the national interest to finally release all records related to these assassinations without delay.”

    While signing the executive order, Trump said, “People are waiting for this for years, for decades, and everything will be revealed.”

    He instructed his staff to hand the pen he used to sign the order to Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.—the nephew of the deceased president and the son of the slain former senator.

    RFK Jr. has long criticized the government for concealing documents and has suggested the Central Intelligence Agency may have played a role in his uncle’s death.

    He quoted the 35th president in a Jan. 24. post on social media platform X.

    He said JFK warned that ‘The very word ‘secrecy’ is repugnant in a free and open society, and we are as a people inherently and historically opposed to secrecy … We decided long ago that the dangers of excessive and unwarranted concealment of pertinent facts far outweighed the dangers which are cited to justify it.’”

    He suggested the lack of transparency has eroded the public’s trust in government.

    Robert F. Kennedy, Jr,, President Donald Trump’s nominee for Secretary of Health and Human Services, testifies before the Senate Committee on Finance on Capitol Hill in Washington on Jan. 29, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

    RFK Jr., who has been nominated by Trump as Health and Human Services Secretary, said the government owes Americans the truth and thanked the president for working to release the documents.

    “A nation that does not trust its people is a nation that is afraid of its people,” he wrote. “A government that withholds information is inherently fearful of its citizens’ ability to make informed decisions and participate actively in democracy.”

    A law passed by Congress, the President John F. Kennedy Assassination Records Collection Act of 1992, ordered all government records related to the incident to be released to the public in full by Oct. 26, 2017.

    Exceptions were made for items deemed harmful to intelligence operations, foreign relations, military defense, or law enforcement and that such harm outweighed the public’s right to know.

    When the deadline approached during Trump’s first term, he acknowledged in his order accepting redactions proposed by certain unnamed agencies and executive departments.

    He subsequently directed the agencies to reconsider the redactions within three years and further disclose information.

    The deadline was extended three times during President Joe Biden’s term in office.

    Trump said on an episode of the “All-In” podcast in June 2024 that the CIA was “probably behind” the pressure to delay the release of all the documents during his first administration.

    He said people have been waiting a long time for the information to be declassified, and they deserve transparency from their government.

    “Whatever it is, it will be very interesting for people to see,” Trump said. “And we’re going to have to learn from it.”

    President Donald Trump speaks during a news conference in the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington on Jan. 21, 2025. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

    Investigative Timeline

    President Kennedy was killed at approximately 12:30 p.m. while riding in a convertible limousine through downtown Dallas, Texas.

    He suffered a head wound and was pronounced dead at 1 p.m.

    Soon after, Lee Harvey Oswald was arrested by Dallas police officers and charged at 1:30 a.m. on Nov. 23 with the president’s murder.

    The next day, Oswald was shot and killed on live television by Jack Ruby during a prisoner transfer.

    One week after the assassination, President Lyndon B. Johnson established the Warren Commission to study the incident.

    Chaired by Chief Justice Earl Warren, the group—which included CIA director Allen Dulles—concluded that Oswald was solely responsible for the crime.

    Lee Harvey Oswald, accused of assassinating former U.S. President John F. Kennedy, is pictured with Dallas police Sgt. Warren (R) and a fellow officer in Dallas, Texas, on Nov. 22, 1963. Dallas Police Department/Dallas Municipal Archives/University of North Texas via Reuters

    The 888-page report produced by the commission has generated questions from researchers since its release in September 1964.

    Other investigations followed, including one from the Rockefeller Commission in 1975.

    Commissioners studied the CIA’s domestic activities and determined the agency was not involved in the assassination and that the president was not hit by a shot from in front of the vehicle—a claim some have made because Kennedy’s head is seen moving backward in the widely distributed Zapruder film.

    Over the course of 1975 and 1976, the Senate’s Church Committee investigated intelligence agencies’ actions.

    Initial findings led the committee to call for another look at the assassination.

    Lawmakers in the House of Representatives established a Select Committee on Assassinations in 1976.

    The group concluded that the president was likely murdered because of a conspiracy that could have included elements of organized crime.

    However, the committee agreed with the Warren Commission’s findings that Oswald fired the fatal shot and the one that struck the president and then-Texas Gov. John Connally.

    Questions have surrounded the bullet the commission alleges struck both individuals, with the so-called “single bullet theory” a main premise of the Oliver Stone film “JFK” released in 1991

    The new order was one of the president’s promises to voters.

    “When I return to the White House, I will declassify and unseal all JFK assassination-related documents,” Trump said repeatedly on the campaign trail last year. “It’s been 60 years, time for the American people to know the truth.”

    In a 1998 report, the Assassination Records Review Board suggested that releasing documents could help restore trust in the government.

    “The suspicions created by government secrecy eroded confidence in the truthfulness of federal agencies in general and damaged their credibility,” lawmakers wrote.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/31/2025 – 17:00

  • At 5 PM EST, Fed Workers' Pronoun Use On Emails Will Be 'Was/Were'
    At 5 PM EST, Fed Workers’ Pronoun Use On Emails Will Be ‘Was/Were’

    The Trump administration is following through with a mandate the American people gave him to rid the federal government of cultural Marxism, where woke activists have been placed into managerial positions over the years – not necessarily based on merit – but on gender or other nonsense.

    ABC News reports that federal employees at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry have until 5 pm EST to remove pronouns from their email signatures. The directive was stated in internal memos obtained by the media outlet, citing two executive orders signed by Trump on his first day to dismantle toxic wokeism in the federal government.  

    “Pronouns and any other information not permitted in the policy must be removed from CDC/ATSDR employee signatures by 5.p.m. ET on Friday,” Jason Bonander, the CDC’s Chief Information Officer, wrote in a memo to staff on Friday morning. 

    Bonander said, “Staff are being asked to alter signature blocks by 5.p.m. ET today (Friday, January 31, 2025) to follow the revised policy.”

    A similar directive was pushed through the Department of Transportation on Thursday after a US Army Black Hawk helicopter collided with a commercial jet over the Potomac River. President Trump has slammed years of DEI hirings at the Federal Aviation Administration, made by the Biden-Harris administration.

    Employees at the Department of Energy also received a directive about pronoun elimination in emails to meet Trump’s executive order requirements for the removal of DEI “language in Federal discourse, communications and publications.” 

    Apparently, all federal employees have now received 5 pm EST. deadline to eliminate pronouns from email signatures. 

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    Former US Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, America’s far-left DEI warrior, quietly removed his gender pronouns from social media profiles in recent days. We theorize in the note why…

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    Fed employees on the subreddit r/fednews are revolting 

    Trump signed two executive orders calling for an end to what his administration called “radical and wasteful DEI programs” and aiming to restore “biological truth to the federal government.”

    Under Obama and Biden, pronoun-wielding gender Marxist activists were being installed across all levels of government – not based on merit – but based on gender, race, and other woke attributes that do not increase job performance.

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    Meritocracy will return. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/31/2025 – 16:40

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Jan 31

Today’s News 31st January 2025

  • Ukrainian Media Outlet Leaks Alleged Trump Plan To End The War
    Ukrainian Media Outlet Leaks Alleged Trump Plan To End The War

    Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

    The Ukrainian news outlet Strana has published leaked details of President Trump’s alleged plan to end the war in Ukraine in 100 days.

    According to Newsweek, which said it couldn’t verify if the details were accurate, the plan starts with holding a phone call between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in late January or early February, followed by meetings with both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in February or March.

    Getty Images

    The leaked plan calls for a ceasefire to be declared by Easter, which falls on April 20. The truce would involve Ukraine withdrawing troops from Russia’s Kursk Oblast.

    Once the ceasefire comes into effect, a peace conference will begin hammering out the details of a lasting agreement. The plan calls for a deal to be reached by May 9.

    Once the details of the agreement are released, Ukraine will be instructed to end martial law and mobilization. That would mean Zelensky could lose power since his presidential term expired in May 2024, and he used martial law as the justification for not holding new elections. The plan would require allowing parties who oppose continuing the war with Russia to run for office.

    Some of the proposed ideas under the plan for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal include barring Ukraine from joining NATO, an agreement for Ukraine to join the EU by 2030, and the EU facilitating Ukraine’s construction. Ukraine would also be able to keep its military and continue receiving military aid from the US, which could be a non-starter for Moscow.

    The proposal would also require Ukraine to cede the territory Russia has captured. Ukraine would have to “refuse military and diplomatic attempts to return the occupied territories” and “officially recognize the sovereignty of the Russian Federation over them.”

    The four annexed territories, which Russia is unlikely to ever give up. Map via Al Jazeera

    Zelensky’s office has denied that the peace plan is authentic, although other media reports have said that Trump tasked his envoy to the conflict, Keith Kellog, with ending the war within the first 100 days of the Trump administration. If the plan is legitimate, leaking it could have been an attempt to sabotage it from moving forward.

    Trump has said he wants to speak with Putin, but the Kremlin said on Monday that it hasn’t heard anything from the US about setting up a potential call.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/30/2025 – 23:35

  • Polarized World: How Other Countries Feel About The Trump Presidency
    Polarized World: How Other Countries Feel About The Trump Presidency

    As President Trump’s second term begins, it’s clear that voters within the U.S. have a wide spectrum of feelings about how it’s going to go.

    On one side of public opinion, it could be a new golden age – on the other, a potential catastrophe. And this same polarization of opinion can also be witnessed around the world.

    This shouldn’t be surprising – because of the size of the U.S. economy and its exceptional geopolitical influence, any change in policy in the U.S. can have big ripple effects outside America’s borders for better or worse.

    Love and Hate

    In this chart by Statista, Visual Capitalist’s Jeff Desjardins points out that public opinion on whether Trump’s presidency will have a positive or negative impact on their home country varies greatly…

    The Data by Country

    The data comes from a survey of 28,549 people by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). It was conducted across 24 countries in November 2024 after the U.S. presidential election.

    In this data set, India is the country that sees Trump’s likely impact on their country as the most positive. A whopping 84% of Indians surveyed saw this to be the case, with only 10% that saw a second term as being bad for India.

    On the flipside, South Korea had just 11% of respondents that said Trump would be good for their country. However, a large portion of Koreans (67%) were not sure of the impact that he would have, which is interesting in itself.

    As President Trump’s second term progresses, especially given the potential ripple effects abroad through tariffs and other policies, it’s likely that the international community will be watching his administration closely.

    Over $1 trillion of billionaire wealth was present at Trump’s inauguration. Who was there and what are they worth? Check out this visualization from Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist to find out.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/30/2025 – 23:10

  • The Record Shows Tulsi Gabbard Was Not An Apologist For Russia-Backed Syria
    The Record Shows Tulsi Gabbard Was Not An Apologist For Russia-Backed Syria

    Authored by Aaron Maté via RealClearPolitics,

    Tulsi Gabbard’s nomination to serve as President Trump’s director of national intelligence hinges on questions about the judgment and patriotism of the former congresswoman and Army veteran, doubts that are expected to take center stage at her Senate confirmation hearing Thursday.

    Echoing a charge first lodged by Hillary Clinton, Sens. Tammy Duckworth and Elizabeth Warren have spread innuendo that Gabbard is a “compromised” “Russian asset” who has been “in Putin’s pocket.” Former CIA Director John Brennan has speculated that Gabbard may deliberately “withhold” or even “skew” vital intelligence in briefing President Trump. Michael McCaul, the Republican chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, has called Trump’s selection of Gabbard to oversee the nation’s 18 spy agencies “a bit baffling” and predicted a defeat of her nomination in the Senate.

    While eyebrows have been raised over Gabbard’s support of a pardon for Edward Snowden – the contractor who stole and released classified information revealing that the U.S. government was conducting domestic mass surveillance and who eventually received asylum in Russia – the main criticism involves Gabbard’s views on Syria, whose recently deposed, Russian-backed dictator, Bashar al-Assad, engaged in a long and brutal war against U.S.-backed insurgents. 

    In January 2017, just as the U.S. was winding down a covert war to topple the regime, Gabbard met with Assad in Damascus. With designated terror groups occupying swaths of the war-torn country, Gabbard warned that Assad’s removal would create a destabilizing power vacuum filled by Al-Qaeda. And when these same insurgent groups accused Assad’s government of chemical weapons attacks, Gabbard voiced skepticism of the allegations, particularly in two incidents that prompted U.S. military airstrikes.

    The charges against Gabbard – which have recently been revived in the Washington Post and other news outlets – are that her dissenting opinions on Syria put her at odds with the consensus views of U.S. intelligence agencies, which therefore calls into question her fitness to oversee them as the nation’s top spy chief.

    Yet Gabbard’s record on Syria, and that of the intelligence community she is poised to lead, shows that her views are not the fringe position that her detractors claim. Gabbard has never offered support for Assad or issued a blanket denial of chemical weapons use by his recently ousted government. In a 2020 statement during her run for the Democratic presidential nomination, Gabbard described Assad as a “brutal dictator” and said that “[t]here is evidence” that both his forces and anti-government insurgents “have used chemical weapons.” 

    While Gabbard has indeed voiced skepticism about specific chemical weapons allegations lodged against the Assad government, she is far from alone among U.S. officials, including at the top of the intelligence leadership. On this contentious issue, the available evidence shows that Gabbard’s skepticism does not contradict that of the U.S. intelligence community, which has never released formal assessments in the cases where Gabbard has raised doubts. 

    ‘No Violations’ in Visit to Assad

    When Gabbard met Assad in Damascus in January 2017, she characterized the encounter as an effort to end one of the 21st century’s deadliest wars. “In order for any peace agreement … there has to be a conversation with him,” Gabbard said.

    To Gabbard’s critics, “particularly … Democrats,” the meeting instead “served to legitimize the dictator,” as the Washington Post put it earlier this month. Although the Post’s article cast Gabbard’s Syria trip as a red flag hanging over her nomination, it only briefly mentioned the Office of Congressional Ethics investigation of her visit in which “no violations were found.” The Post also failed to note that such efforts by members of Congress are not unprecedented: Beginning in 2007, for example, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and former Secretary of State/presidential nominee John Kerry met separately with Assad in Damascus, with Kerry doing so multiple times, and despite Bush administration complaints that that such meetings legitimize the dictator. 

    The controversy surrounding Gabbard’s Damascus visit came amid wider unease over her opposition to the U.S. government’s covert support for the insurgency fighting Assad’s government. Shortly after her Syria trip, Gabbard introduced the Stop Arming Terrorists Act, which called for banning any U.S. weaponry or assistance to the Islamic State, Al-Qaeda, and Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (another name for Al-Qaeda’s Syria franchise), all major forces in the armed rebellion.  

    A recent Foreign Policy article argued that Gabbard’s bill was unnecessary because these were groups “that were already designated terrorists by the U.S. government and therefore barred from receiving any kind of support.” Yet Gabbard’s bill also singled out assistance to “any individual or group that is affiliated with, associated with, cooperating with, or adherents to such groups.” This reflected what was by then common knowledge at the highest levels of the U.S. government: The U.S.-armed insurgency was dominated by Al-Qaeda, and at times even fighting alongside ISIS.

    Jake Sullivan, who would become national security adviser under Joe Biden, acknowledged this in a February 2012 email: “AQ [Al-Qaeda] is on our side in Syria.” Later that year, a Defense Intelligence Agency report noted that “Salafi[s], the Muslim Brotherhood, and AQI [Al Qaeda in Iraq] are the major forces driving the insurgency,” which, it added, has the “support” of the U.S. and its allies.

    When President Trump shut down the CIA’s covert Syria program in July 2017, he too echoed Gabbard’s position. “It turns out it’s a lot of al-Qaeda we’re giving these weapons to,” Trump remarked.

    Another of Gabbard’s warnings has since proved to be prophetic. “[I]f President Assad is overthrown,” Gabbard warned in 2017, “then Al Qaeda or a group like Al Qaeda … will take charge of all of Syria.” When Assad was finally toppled last month, the head of the new government became Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the founder of Al-Qaeda’s franchise in Syria and a former deputy leader of ISIS. Jolani’s militia, since renamed Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is still a U.S. government-designated terrorist organization, though the Biden administration announced in its last days in office that the U.S. will no longer enforce the $10 million U.S. bounty on his head.

    Doubting Press Releases, Not Intel 

    While Gabbard’s concerns about the Al-Qaeda-dominated insurgency in Syria are now seldom challenged, her skepticism of chemical weapons allegations against the now former Syrian government have emerged as a major stumbling block to her nomination.

    A statement released by Foreign Policy for America, a Democratic Party-aligned think tank, recently assailed Gabbard for having “publicly cast doubt on U.S. intelligence reports and overwhelming public reporting that Assad carried out chemical weapons attacks against Syrian civilians.” 

    This criticism relies on a widespread misnomer. Gabbard has not “cast doubt on U.S. intelligence reports” about Syrian chemical weapons attacks, because no such reports have ever been released.

    In the three major incidents where Gabbard has challenged a U.S. military intervention over alleged Syrian government chemical attacks – in Ghouta (2013), Khan Shaykhoun (2017), and Douma (2018) – the U.S. intelligence community has never published a formal report making the case. In a deviation from established practice where the intelligence community issues declassified summaries of its conclusions, the Obama administration established a precedent in which the White House, not the nation’s spy agencies, have released statements lodging allegations against the Syrian government. 

    In Syria’s most notorious chemical weapons incident – the August 2013 sarin attack in Ghouta that crossed President Obama’s self-declared “red line” – the nation’s top intelligence official, then-ODNI director James Clapper, explicitly refused to release an intelligence product accusing Assad’s military of guilt. And on the question of Syrian government culpability, Clapper adopted a position that would later mirror that of Gabbard, his would-be successor.

    As Obama and his senior aides mulled bombing Syria after sarin-filled rockets killed scores of civilians in Ghouta, Clapper personally visited the White House to issue an impromptu warning. At the president’s daily briefing, Clapper told Obama that the evidence implicating Assad’s forces in the sarin attack in Ghouta was not a “slam dunk.” This was a deliberate reference to the term used by George W. Bush’s CIA Director, George Tenet, in vouching for the falsified intelligence that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction, the pretext for the Bush administration’s decision to invade. 

    Clapper went out of his way to repeat that same warning on two other occasions, including at a meeting of White House principals, which nervous aides soon leaked to the media. Obama, The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg later reported based on an interview with the 44th president, was “unsettled” by Clapper’s visit. He may also have been influenced by intelligence emanating from the Pentagon. According to a leaked assessment prepared for the Defense Intelligence Agency in June 2013, al-Nusra in Syria maintained a sarin production cell that marked the group’s “most advanced sarin plot since al-Qaida’s pre-9/11 effort.”

    After invoking the Iraq WMDs debacle, Clapper told his administration colleagues that the intelligence community would not produce an intelligence product for public release. Instead, he handed off the task to Ben Rhodes, Obama’s deputy national security adviser and top speechwriter. “It took me a moment to understand what he was suggesting,” Rhodes later wrote in his memoir. “In all my time at the White House, I had never written that kind of assessment, and never would again. These were usually technical documents produced by teams of people in the intelligence agencies.”

    With the job left to him, Rhodes, who had no intelligence experience, was unsettled as well. The former aspiring novelist spent more than two days drafting what he called a “U.S. Government Assessment,” a term that carries no formal significance and that amounts to a White House press release. “I felt waves of anxiety,” Rhodes recalled, “anticipating how I might be hauled before Congress if things went terribly wrong after a military intervention. I was responsible for writing the public document that would justify the United States’ going to war in Syria.”

    Gabbard, then serving in Congress, was among the lawmakers to oppose a U.S. military strike on Syria. In criticisms of Gabbard’s position, it is widely overlooked that her skepticism did not entail challenging the formal assessment of the U.S. intelligence community. Instead, she did not accept the argument produced by Rhodes, a creative-writing MFA who felt “waves of anxiety” writing it. 

    While Rhodes centered Clapper’s “slam dunk” warning in his memoir, Clapper omitted it from his. Instead, Clapper claimed in his 2018 book that the intelligence community “obtained evidence” of the Assad regime’s guilt in Ghouta. Yet Clapper also hinted that this evidence was far from convincing. The IC’s classified assessment on Ghouta, Clapper recalled, “gave alternate explanations” to an Assad regime chemical attack “and highlighted the things we didn’t know.” The former intelligence chief also disclosed that Obama’s national security adviser, Tom Donilon, was another skeptic. Donilon, Clapper wrote, “seemed to keep raising the evidentiary bar we needed to meet before he believed our reports.”

    In a different section of the book, Clapper owned up to participating in the intelligence deception that led to the Iraq war, which undoubtedly informed his “slam dunk” warning over Syria. The U.S. “failure” in Iraq, Clapper wrote, belongs “squarely on the shoulders of the administration members who were pushing a narrative of a rogue WMD program in Iraq and on the intelligence officers, including me, who were so eager to help that we found what wasn’t really there.” 

    Clapper was acknowledging that he had failed to stick to the known facts about Iraqi WMDS, and instead help come up with evidence that “wasn’t really there” – in other words, fraudulent. 

    Against the wishes of many of his senior aides, Obama ultimately abandoned his “red line” and declined to bomb Syria. In public, the White House claimed that Obama pulled back after Russia offered to facilitate the destruction of Syria’s decades-old chemical weapons stockpile. It was only in his last months of his presidency that Obama acknowledged the “slam dunk” warning from Clapper – and that war skeptics like Gabbard were handed a vindication. 

    Challenging a False Flag Coverup

    While Clapper’s role in questioning Syrian government culpability in the 2013 Ghouta attack remains widely overlooked, Gabbard has attracted significant controversy for raising questions about two other alleged chemical attacks by Assad’s forces in the period since.

    In a 2020 statement, Gabbard said that she was “skeptical” of the Assad regime’s guilt regarding attacks on Khan Shaykhun in 2017 and Douma in 2018 – two towns that were both “under the control of al-Qaeda-linked opposition forces.” In these incidents, she wrote, “there is evidence to suggest that the attacks may have been staged by opposition forces for the purpose of drawing the United States and the West deeper into the war.” 

    Here again, Gabbard was not alone. As one former U.S. Ambassador to the Middle East put it, Obama’s “‘red line’ was an open invitation to a false-flag operation.” David McCloskey, a former CIA analyst who spent years covering the Syrian war, is of the view that “most of the chemical weapons attacks that have occurred during the war [were] perpetrated by the regime.” However, he added, “there was obviously a desire on the part of al-Nusra [Al-Qaeda in Syria] and others to gain access to chemical weapons stores—certainly, a desire to frame the regime for attacks, if they could.” 

    As with Ghouta, the U.S. intelligence community did not release an assessment in either incident to make the case against Assad. Instead, the White House again issued lengthy press releases written by non-intelligence officials. 

    The April 2017 statement on Khan Shaykhun, released by the National Security Council under the direction of then-national security advisor H.R. McMaster, claimed to represent “an unclassified summary of the U.S. Intelligence Community’s analysis.” Given that the summary did not come directly from the intelligence community and did not have its imprint, this claim was impossible to verify. 

    In the only nod to U.S. spies’ data on the incident, the document referenced “signals intelligence and geospatial intelligence,” without offering any details on what was obtained. “We cannot publicly release all available intelligence on this attack due to the need to protect sources and methods,” it added. It also pointed to “a significant body of credible open source reporting, that tells a clear and consistent story.” This was a reference to publicly available material not collected by U.S. spy agencies, and therefore not immune to manipulation by biased actors. 

    Spies Relying on ‘Public Reporting’

    One year later, the U.S. government’s statement on Douma contained only a qualified mention of “[r]eliable intelligence,” without explaining what was acquired or how it was deemed reliable. Instead, the statement again made several references to “open-source information.” Rather than drawing on secret intelligence collected by U.S. agencies, the statement cited “social media users, non-governmental organizations, and other open-source outlets”; “photos and videos”; and “reporting from media, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and other open sources.” Adopting the same title of Ben Rhodes’ statement on Ghouta five years prior, the White House document was labeled a “United States Government Assessment,” meaning that it did not come from the intelligence community.  

    In his memoir, John Bolton – who oversaw the U.S. response to the Douma incident as Trump’s third national security adviser – hinted that that the U.S. government did not collect an overwhelming body of evidence. “We discussed at length what we did and didn’t know regarding Syria’s attack and how to increase our understanding of what had happened,” Bolton recalled. This included, he added, uncertainty over the exact nature of the toxic agent used in Douma, with U.S. officials unsure “whether sarin nerve agent was involved or just chlorine-based agents.” The “[p]roof of the Assad regime’s chemical-weapons usage,” he added “was increasingly clear in public reporting.” Those who claimed that there was no evidence, including voices on Fox News such as Tucker Carlson, “were wrong.”

    Yet Bolton’s admitted reliance on “public reporting” suggests that the U.S. government’s case was not supported by concrete intelligence. While “open source” information can sometimes be reliable, it can just as easily be compromised by the biases of the unidentified actors that White House officials extensively cited.

    Bolton’s argument undercuts the main argument against Gabbard’s nomination – that she rejected the firm conclusions of intelligence agencies. 

    An Aversion to Politicized Intelligence

    Questions have also emerged about U.S. claims that Assad was behind the attack.

    According to leaked documents, the original investigative team sent to Douma by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, the world’s top chemical weapons watchdog, did not find evidence to support allegations of a Syrian government chemical attack, raising the possibility that the incident was staged by insurgents. Two members of the Douma team later accused senior OPCW officials of manipulating the investigation and publishing a final report that baselessly implicated the Syrian government in a chemical attack. 

    The OPCW has refused to meet with the veteran inspectors who challenged the cover-up. U.S. officials have dismissed the OPCW’s Douma controversy as “Kremlin disinformation,” yet have never commented on its substantive issues. Establishment U.S. media outlets have also ignored the story, with the exception of the New York Times, which vaguely mentioned it once in passing. To illustrate, a Washington Post article that sought to discredit Gabbard’s skepticism of Syria chemical weapons allegations, published just days before her scheduled confirmation hearing, made no mention of the OPCW whistleblowers and leaked documents.

    Amid government and media silence over claims of a cover-up in a Syria chemical weapons probe, Tulsi Gabbard has been a rare exception. In 2021, she signed a letter urging the OPCW to address the cover-up and meet with the dissenting inspectors. “The issue at hand threatens to severely damage the reputation and credibility of the OPCW and undermine its vital role in the pursuit of international peace and security,” the statement said. 

    Once again, contrary to her detractors’ claims, Gabbard was not adopting a fringe position. Among the signatories were five former senior OPCW officials, including the organization’s founding director-general Jose Bustani. Others included senior U.S. official Lawrence Wilkerson and Lord Alan West, a former senior U.K. Royal Navy officer and advisor to former U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown. 

    In Senate meetings ahead of her confirmation hearing, Gabbard has stressed that she is not questioning all Syria chemical weapons allegations, but instead harbors skepticism about the above cases. After speaking with Gabbard, Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly complained that Gabbard was citing “experts that were not credible” – a presumed reference to the OPCW whistleblowers, two highly decorated veteran inspectors with more than 25 years of combined experience. “I have a hard time understanding why you would want to do that, to use your political capital to try to prove something when there are multiple cases,” Kelly added.

    Yet throughout her political career, Gabbard has explained her reasoning for questioning allegations that can lead the nation to war. “I served in a war in Iraq, a war that was launched based on lies, and a war that was launched without evidence,” she told a CNN town hall in 2019. “So as a soldier, as an American, as a member of Congress, it is my duty and my responsibility to exercise skepticism any time anyone tries to send our service members into harm’s way or use our military to go in and start a new war.”

    Yet again, Gabbard’s outlook does not set her apart from her would-be predecessor, Clapper. In his account of the Ghouta episode, Ben Rhodes stressed that the then-U.S. intelligence chief had a similar motivation. “I understood,” Rhodes wrote, “that Clapper was protecting the intelligence community from a repeat of the role it played before the war in Iraq.” 

    With Gabbard now up for the job that Clapper once held, her nomination may come down to whether the Senate sees that same aversion to politicized intelligence as a liability, or a virtue.

    Aaron Maté has provided extensive coverage of corruption within federal intelligence agencies as a contributor to RealClearInvestigations. He is also a contributor to The Nation, and his work has appeared in Democracy Now!, Vice, Al Jazeera, Toronto Star, The Intercept, and Le Monde Diplomatique. Maté is the host of the news show Pushback with Aaron Maté.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/30/2025 – 22:45

  • Global Military Spending Has Almost Doubled Since The Early '90s
    Global Military Spending Has Almost Doubled Since The Early ’90s

    Global military expenditure has nearly doubled since the early 90s.

    Statista’s Anna Fleck reports that, according to the SIPRI Military Expenditure Database, the costs attributed to defense equipment, personnel, operations and maintenance came to nearly $1.3 billion in 1993 and rose to nearly $2.4 billion in 2023.

    Infographic: Military Spending Has Almost Doubled Since the Early 90s | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    The region of Asia and Oceania is the main driver of this change, having increased spending by 277 percent between 1993 and 2023.

    Meanwhile, in Africa and the Middle East, defense spending increased by 154 percent in the same time period.

    As this chart shows though, even with this growth, the Americas region still had the highest spending in 2023 at $967 billion.

    In Europe, military spending was far higher in 2023 than in 1993, 2003 or 2013. This is attributed primarily to the ongoing war in Ukraine.

    According to SIPRI, the biggest defense spenders in 2023 were the United States ($916 billion or 37 percent of the world total), China ($296 billion or 12 percent), Russia ($109 billion or 4.5 percent), India ($83.6 billion or 3.4 percent) and Saudi Arabia ($75.8 billion or 3.1 percent). Ukraine became the eighth largest military spender in 2023, at $64.8 billion (2.7 percent of global spending).

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/30/2025 – 22:20

  • Why Does the NYT Continue To Print Front Page Lies About RFK Jr.?
    Why Does the NYT Continue To Print Front Page Lies About RFK Jr.?

    Authored by Blake Fleetwood via RealClearPolitics,

    Any NYT reader looking at the buzzy front page headline below would immediately think that Robert F Kennedy Jr. is a madman.

    Can he really be an advocate for repealing the polio vaccine, a disease that has killed and crippled tens of millions of kids?

    “Kennedy’s Lawyer Has Asked the F.D.A. to Revoke Approval of the Polio Vaccine”

    To the ordinary reader, the headline says pretty clearly that Kennedy asked his lawyer to revoke the polio vaccine. The headline makes the shocking accusation that Kennedy is in favor of banning the polio vaccine. There is no other way of interpreting it.

    But it is flagrantly false and a gross distortion of the truth. There is not one polio vaccine; there are six different polio vaccines that are used worldwide. Moreover, Aaron Siri, the lawyer in question, does not represent Kennedy in his petition.

    Contrary to the misrepresentations the NYT has been making, Kennedy does not oppose vaccines or want to take away anybody’s vaccine. All seven of his children were vaccinated, including with the polio vaccine, and his grandkids were also vaccinated against polio.

    Most importantly, Kennedy has long insisted publicly that he is “all for the polio vaccine.” He has said that the polio vaccine has prevented hundreds of thousands of deaths, a seemingly relevant fact that the Times deliberately omitted from its punchy but reckless news article.

    Kennedy does question the long-term of some vaccines and wants further studies about them. When RFK is quoted as saying no vaccines are safe, he is saying no vaccines are “completely” safe – they all have side effects.

    The prestigious New England Journal of Medicine supports Kennedy’s positions regarding vaccine safety and has called for more funding for “Post Authorization Vaccine Safety”:

    “Progress in vaccine-safety science has understandably been slow.”

    “We recommend the National Academy of Medicine conduct an independent and comprehensive review to address these important and complex structure and governance issues. The highest quality research should be funded.”

    The NEJM also called for a review of the 1986 Act of Congress, which holds that pharmaceutical companies cannot be held liable for adverse reactions to vaccines and cannot be sued.

    The main reason Kennedy is a vaccine skeptic is that the widely accepted reality that the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control are hugely influenced by Big Pharma. A nefarious revolving door allows executives to ping-pong back and forth between the regulatory bodies that approve vaccines and the drug companies that profit from them. Nine of the last ten FDA chiefs moved on to well-paid jobs with Big Pharma. This corporate capture inevitably leads to a conflict of interest, a corrupt dynamic not permitted in other countries.

    Moreover, Big Pharma receives billions of dollars from the government to prepare the drug studies it submits and which the FDA relies on for licensing new drugs. Today, nearly 45% of the FDA’s $5.9 billion budget comes from the user fees companies pay when they apply for drug approval. These industry-paid fees have increasingly resulted in a lower burden of proof for medication approval, according to Public Citizen (a Ralph Nader spinoff). Don’t bite the hand that feeds you.

    This latest NYT article and other mainstream media repetitions predictably provoked an outpouring of more than 10,000 comments calling Kennedy “a lunatic” and “a present danger to our health.”

    This is but a continuation of a slew of NYT articles seeking to falsely link Kennedy to the misleading position that he wants to ban the polio vaccine and all other vaccines.

    What RFK Jr. Has Said About the Polio Vaccine in Recent Years

    As Polio Survivors Watch Kennedy Confirmation, All Eyes Are on McConnell

    Opinion | RFK Jr. Is a Vaccine Cynic, Not a Skeptic

    RFK Jr. Sought to Stop Covid Vaccinations 6 Months After Rollout

    How Lagging Vaccination Could Lead to a Polio Resurgence

    Millions of people worldwide reading these headlines and other anti-Kennedy articles – echoed by much of the mainstream media – would naturally conclude that Kennedy’s policies would bring on a horrific trail of death akin to genocide.

    Kennedy himself has said, “If I believed everything I read about myself in the mainstream media, I would think I was a madman.”

    Aaron Siri, the lawyer in question, called the headline “hysterical and an absolute lie” and said that his petition did not ask the FDA to revoke the approval of “the polio vaccine” or any other vaccine.

    He accused the Times and other mainstream media of “deliberately stoking fear and outrage about vaccines in an attempt to derail Donald Trump’s nomination” of Kennedy for secretary of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

    The NYT article falsely suggested that Siri (and, by implication Kennedy) sought to eliminate all polio vaccines. This damning and scandalous accusation spread to all the other media in the nation: The Washington Post, the AP, and all the legacy networks – without any independent checking.

    Siri also says he does not question “The Polio Vaccine.” In fact, according to the World Health Organization, six licensed polio vaccines are used worldwide. Continuing debates among experts exist about which of the six is most efficacious and provides the most prevention.

    Siri’s client is questioning only one of the six polio vaccines: a specific brand of the IPV injection, IPOL, licensed in 1990 by Sanofi. There are a handful of similar brands.

    Siri’s petition claims that the IPOL brand was tested for only three days, and there were no controls before approval. According to the petition, a peer-reviewed study found discrepancies between the tested aluminum levels – scientifically proven dangerous – in this novel-formulated injected vaccine and the amounts listed on their FDA-approved labels.

    IPOL is not one of the traditional polio vaccines that Jonas Salk, Albert Sabin, or Hilary Koprowski developed. It is the newest vaccine approved and may already be falling out of favor.

    The IPOL brand was not double-blind tested. The original Salk vaccine was double-blind tested in a massive clinical trial in which 1.5 million schoolchildren were injected with either the polio vaccine or a placebo.

    If they only skim the article, NYT readers will not realize the IPOL brand vaccine is not “the polio vaccine.” Moreover, the latest conclusions from the World Health Organization suggest that it is not even the recommended polio vaccine in many places.

    After the Times’ piece about Siri was released online, the Times integrated an unrelated rant from Sen. Mitch McConnell, which blasted the idea of eradicating the polio vaccine as “specious disinformation” that will threaten the advancements of “lifesaving medical progress.”

    This opinion by Sen. McConnell, a polio survivor, was used by the NYT to further prop up their misleading premise that Kennedy was seeking to do away with “the polio vaccine.”

    A WHO report discusses the debate among experts about the various polio vaccines, which may provide a poetic resolution: A combination of both vaccines may be the most effective prevention.

    So why is The New York Times, our most distinguished newspaper, abandoning the standards of balance, fairness, and accuracy it has championed for over a hundred years?

    Their code of ethics explicitly states that the paper should not be a player in the field of politics.

    But the Times must cater to its readers, who are 83% liberal and afflicted with a serious case of Trump Derangement Syndrome; hence, reporters and editors are naturally inclined to bash and misrepresent Trump and Kennedy.

    Moreover, the Times seems to feel that any skepticism of vaccines or call for further study will lead to vaccine hesitancy. This is a strange position for a newspaper that vows to deliver “All the News That’s Fit to Print.”

    It prefers to keep its readers in the dark.

    They couldn’t defeat Trump at the ballot box, so now they are going after Kennedy via the printed word.

    Of the more than 2000 reporters and editors who work at the Times, I have not heard of one who will admit to voting for Trump.

    I was a reporter for The New York Times in the late 1970s and early 1980s, writing major front-page articles and magazine stories. You knew what to write about and how to frame articles to please the editors to make the front page – you didn’t have to be told. I was generally more leftish than my editors and tried to slip in small progressive nuggets that were perhaps a bit off-brand.

    In 1981, I wrote a negative story about one of the Times’ oldest advertisers: Tiffany’s. The iconic jewelry store was getting a significant financial incentive from New York state for agreeing not to move to New Jersey. My editors moved the Tiffany piece, which should have been the lead, to the 17th paragraph. Deep inside the page, you had to hunt for it. I didn’t cause a fuss. At least it made the front page.

    I have read the Times cover to cover for 70 years and still do.

    But I always look for their agenda and try to extrapolate the nuggets of truth behind each story from the facts they deliberately omit or downplay. Often, the most relevant facts are hidden deep down in the articles.

    The Times and much mainstream media have recently succumbed to political pressure. For example, 15 days before the 2020 presidential election, the New York Post published a story about Hunter Biden’s lost laptop.

    The story, and the salacious facts revealed in it, might have critically cut into Joe Biden’s narrow victory over Donald Trump. However, the Times refused to report on the story even though the CIA had earlier authenticated the laptop. Moreover, the NYT gave substantial coverage and legitimacy to a letter signed by 51 former intelligence officials calling the Biden laptop a “Russian information operation.”

    None of the intelligence officials had even reviewed the laptop’s contents. Recently, the Republican House Judiciary and Intelligence Committees uncovered evidence that then-Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken drafted the letter, which may have helped swing the 2020 election in Biden’s favor.

    It took the Times 18 months to acknowledge that the laptop was authentic and that the letter debunking it was a campaign hoax.

    Reporters at the Times generally don’t write the headlines to their stories, and I don’t think that reporters Christina Jewett and Sheryl Gay Stolberg wrote the misleading headline, but they certainly didn’t object to it. They mischaracterized the Siri petition to the FDA and neglected to mention that five other polio vaccines are being widely used. Clearly, they cherry-picked the facts and unfairly misquoted and mischaracterized Kennedy’s positions as part of a political agenda.

    The goal of The New York Times is to cover the news as impartially as possible — “without fear or favor,” in the words of Adolph Ochs.

    Blake Fleetwood was a reporter for The New York Times and has written for The New York Times Magazine, New York Magazine, The New York Daily News, the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The Hill, the Village Voice, The Atlantic, and Washington Monthly on a number of issues.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/30/2025 – 21:55

  • These Are The Most Affordable ZIP Codes For Renters In America
    These Are The Most Affordable ZIP Codes For Renters In America

    The cost of renting is anything but uniform – shaped by geography, neighborhood trends, and even the quirks of a few city blocks. What’s affordable in one part of town might be out of reach just a short walk away.

    This map via Visual Capitalist, created by NeoMam Studios for CashNetUSA, visualizes the most affordable ZIP codes to rent across America.

    NeoMam Studios compared the average household incomes and annual rent costs in each ZIP code using U.S. Census data and Zillow’s Observed Rent Index (ZORI). ZIP codes were ranked by affordability, the most affordable being the ZIP codes with the lowest rental costs as a percentage of local incomes.

    Figures below 30% of gross income were considered as the standard affordable rent outlay defined by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

    Which ZIP Codes Are the Most Affordable?

    Below, we show each state’s most affordable ZIP code, the ZIP code’s location, and its average annual rent (from ZORI) as a share of local median household income.

    State ZIP Code Location Annual Rent as % of Local Median Household Income Avg. Rent Cost (ZORI, $) Median Household Income ($)
    Kansas 66224 Leawood 10.57% $1,850.00 $143,093
    Michigan 48324 West Bloomfield 11.50% $3,069.76 $203,000
    Texas 78248 San Antonio 12.29% $2,231.67 $138,220
    Pennsylvania 15228 Pittsburgh 12.57% $1,960.28 $128,333
    Iowa 50323 Urbandale 12.77% $1,734.63 $145,774
    South Dakota 57005 Brandon 13.51% $2,648.78 $185,093
    Ohio 43035 Lewis Center 13.71% $2,048.33 $132,573
    Illinois 60304 Oak Park 13.92% $1,259.17 $122,986
    North Dakota 58554 Mandan 14.23% $1,021.94 $76,612
    Indiana 46077 Zionsville 14.28% $1,255.50 $131,002
    Minnesota 55906 Rochester 14.57% $1,561.98 $125,060
    Missouri 63141 Creve Coeur 14.93% $2,104.16 $152,326
    Tennessee 38024 Dyersburg 14.95% $1,475.98 $127,195
    Alabama 35213 Mountain Brook 14.99% $1,570.11 $137,408
    Arkansas 72223 Little Rock 15.19% $1,217.72 $116,278
    Arizona 85253 Paradise Valley 15.27% $969.22 $71,601
    Nebraska 68130 Omaha 15.29% $1,540.35 $109,405
    Louisiana 70605 Lake Charles 15.38% $1,043.45 $81,404
    New York 11731 East Northport 15.51% $2,025.78 $138,261
    Wyoming 82716 Gillette 16.01% $1,816.65 $111,410
    Wisconsin 54956 Neenah 16.24% $2,033.56 $159,846
    Georgia 30005 Alpharetta 16.58% $1,929.44 $98,459
    Kentucky 40059 Prospect 16.72% $2,716.04 $170,000
    North Carolina 27613 Raleigh 16.90% $1,940.98 $83,946
    New Jersey 7090 Westfield 17.17% $1,387.50 $55,402
    Mississippi 38801 Tupelo 17.25% $2,040.67 $137,097
    Oklahoma 73142 Oklahoma City 17.28% $1,750.91 $116,756
    Maryland 21043 Ellicott City 17.58% $1,397.75 $112,328
    West Virginia 26062 Weirton 17.80% $2,563.01 $163,333
    Virginia 23113 Midlothian 17.86% $2,041.67 $103,934
    South Carolina 29708 Fort Mill 18.00% $623.89 $50,064
    California 94062 Emerald Lake Hills 18.15% $916.67 $59,482
    Florida 33556 Odessa 18.33% $1,935.56 $124,449
    Utah 84025 Farmington 18.49% $2,243.88 $161,079
    Montana 59501 Havre 18.49% $1,489.03 $116,849
    Connecticut 6410 Cheshire 18.54% $810.56 $56,393
    Oregon 97221 Portland 18.66% $1,425.00 $55,511
    Colorado 80108 Castle Pines 18.83% $1,170.83 $96,403
    Washington 98040 Mercer Island 19.17% $1,204.58 $83,648
    Massachusetts 1720 Acton 19.37% $2,050.00 $117,408
    Nevada 89511 Reno 19.57% $1,950.00 $100,751
    Idaho 83221 Blackfoot 19.95% $1,234.43 $97,530
    New Mexico 87544 Los Alamos 20.95% $1,662.43 $107,901
    Alaska 99517 Anchorage 22.12% $1,062.50 $63,897
    New Hampshire 3045 Goffstown 23.23% $1,113.33 $98,902
    Delaware 19810 Wilmington 23.52% $1,522.56 $172,829
    Rhode Island 2865 Lincoln 23.57% $791.67 $53,360
    Hawaii 96822 Honolulu 27.75% $1,584.86 $85,964
    Maine 4210 Auburn 30.05% $1,731.25 $162,705
    Vermont 5701 Rutland 30.80% $917.50 $77,356

    The average rent in Leawood 66224, Kansas, costs 10.57% of the local average income—the most affordable rent level of any U.S. ZIP code.

    The 66224 ZIP code is right at the border of Kansas and Missouri, and just a couple of ZIP codes south of Leawood 66211, home to Kansas’ priciest residential real estate.

    Midland, Texas, has the highest proportion of affordable housing against local incomes, with 97.5% of rentals available below 30% of the local average income.

    Several ZIP codes within major metropolitan areas ranked as the most affordable in their states, including Portland (97221) in Oregon and Pittsburgh (15228) in Pennsylvania.

    Over on the West Coast, Los Angeles doesn’t have a single ZIP code where the average home is affordable to rent, according to the 30% rule.

    To learn more about housing affordability in the U.S., check out this graphic that visualizes median house prices in the U.S.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/30/2025 – 21:30

  • Cocaine Outpaces Oil As Colombia's Most Valuable Export
    Cocaine Outpaces Oil As Colombia’s Most Valuable Export

    Authored by Matthew Smith via Oilprice.com,

    • Colombia’s cocaine production reached a record high in 2023, despite government efforts to combat the illicit industry.

    • The booming cocaine trade is driving insecurity, corruption, and violence, damaging key economic sectors like the oil industry.

    • The cultivation of coca and production of cocaine has been fueled by a complex interplay of factors, including demand, profitability, and the involvement of illegal armed groups.

    In a shocking development, Colombia’s cocaine production, for the 10th year straight, soared to a new record high. The UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) estimates that the year’s annual output grew 52% year over year to a startling 2,664 metric tons, the largest amount ever produced. Despite the government in the capital Bogota, with U.S. backing, committing substantial resources to disrupt what is now an economically crucial illicit industry in rural Colombia coca cultivation and cocaine manufacturing keeps spiraling higher. The booming cocaine trade drives heightened insecurity and corruption which are damaging key economic sectors, notably the fiscally vital petroleum industry with oil Colombia’s most valuable export.

    Since the 1990s, except for a brief period from 2011 to 2012, Colombia has consistently been the world’s leading cultivator of the coca plant. The bushy shrub’s alkaloid-rich leaves, long chewed by Indigenous South Americans to boost energy and ward off altitude sickness, are the vital precursor needed to manufacture the popular recreational narcotic cocaine hydrochloride which is widely consumed in developed nations around the world. The volume of cocaine produced is spiraling ever higher despite Colombia, since the 1980s, waging a multi-billion-dollar U.S.-backed war on drugs, 

    This conflict not only failed to stem the flow of cocaine but prolonged Colombia’s civil war and cost hundreds of thousands of Colombians (Spanish), mostly civilians, their lives. There are multiple reasons for this, but the key is the weakness of the Colombian state which is exacerbated by Bogota being caught in a protracted country-wide multiparty asymmetric conflict rooted in inequality, Cold War politics and foreign interference. Colombia’s widespread poverty and lawlessness create favorable conditions for the growth of illicit economies, such as smuggling, thereby allowing the cocaine trade to take root.

    While the cocaine business has existed since the early 1970s in Colombia, it was the formation of the Medellin and Cali Cartels toward the end of that decade that put the Andean country firmly on the global map as a leading cocaine exporter. The vast profits cocaine generates caught the attention of a multitude of illegal armed groups across Latin America including those waging a vicious decades-long civil war in Colombia. This led to a significant escalation in the conflict among cartels, leftist guerrillas, and right-wing paramilitaries, all vying for control of the lucrative billion-dollar illicit industry. These events sparked a vicious cycle of escalating violence, which fueled further lawlessness thereby perpetuating the conditions that allowed the cocaine trade to thrive.

    Surprisingly, large-scale cultivation of the coca plant did not occur in Colombia when the Medellin Cartel was at the peak of its power during the 1980s. Estimates put the amount of coca being cultivated during the mid-1980s at a mere 32,000 acres or 13,000 hectares, roughly a twentieth of what it is today. Both the Medellin and Cali Cartels, at the time the world’s largest suppliers of the drug, relied upon coca paste imported from Bolivia and Peru to manufacture the cocaine they were shipping to the U.S. and Europe. This changed as other illegal armed groups, particularly rightwing paramilitary death squads and the leftist Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC – Spanish initials) entered the fray. 

    Undeniably, the April 1997 arrival of the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC – Spanish initials) was a pivotal moment. The paramilitary umbrella group was financed by the cocaine trade from the get-go receiving payments from various trafficking groups, notably the Norte de Valle Cartel. The AUC’s formation heralded the introduction of large-scale coca cultivation to Colombia. The paramilitary leadership, who were major narcotic traffickers, moved rapidly to secure the supply of coca leaves, the essential precursor needed to manufacture cocaine. The ultraviolent group, responsible for most civilian deaths during Colombia’s armed conflict, came to dominate key parts of the economy having cultivated ties to politicians, security forces and domestic as well as international corporations. 

    By 1998, a year after the AUC was formed and years after the fall of the Medellin and Cali cartels, there were an estimated 200,000 acres (80,000 hectares) of coca being grown in Colombia. To put that in perspective it is over six times the land utilized a decade earlier to grow the bushy alkaloid-rich plant. Since then, the amount of coca grown in Colombia continually soared to annual record highs. The cultivation of the coca plant and the highly profitable transformation of the bush’s alkaloid-rich leaves into cocaine hydrochloride became a leading driver of Colombia’s civil war and prolonged the conflict. 

    UNODC data shows the volume of land (Spanish) under coca cultivation in 2023 grew 10% year over year to a record 625,176 acres or 253,000 hectares. This occurred despite the significant measures undertaken by Bogota to stem coca cultivation and cocaine manufacturing. The volume of coca cultivation, as the chart shows, soared after President Juan Manuel Santos halted aerial spraying of coca with glyphosate in 2015 due to serious health impacts becoming known. 

    Source: UNODC Colombia Coca Cultivation Surveys 2013 to 2023.

    In fact, by the end of 2015, the amount of coca planted in Colombia (Spanish) shot up by a startling 39% when compared to 2014 to 237,221 acres (96,000 hectares). The rising volume of coca grown in Colombia accelerated even faster after aerial spraying ceased with the acreage cultivated in 2016 soaring by an eye-popping 52% year over year to 360,773 acres (146,000 hectares). 

    A potent cocktail is driving cocaine production higher despite Bogota’s efforts to manually eradicate coca, destroy laboratories and interdict shipments. A key driver is growing demand for the drug in developed countries, the sale of which generates immense profits for traffickers, incentivizing their illegal activities. While cocaine consumption is falling in the U.S., the world’s largest consumer, it is rising in Western Europe and Oceania with recreational consumption enjoying a renaissance in the UK, Belgium, Netherlands, France, New Zealand and Australia. 

    The tremendous profits generated by cocaine trafficking form a massive incentive for all participants in the illegal industry to expand supply. This is the case for Colombia’s illegal armed groups, notably the Gulf Clan, FARC dissidents and National Liberation Army (ELN – Spanish initials) who after losing Cold War funding came to rely heavily on cocaine revenue. Undeniably, Bogota’s minimal presence in remote regions creates a fertile environment for illicit economies which combined with the tremendous profits generated by cocaine trafficking stimulates production. 

    These factors coupled with transnational cocaine traffickers pressuring Colombia’s illegal armed groups to maintain supply incentivize those organizations to bolster efficiency, hence profitability, by improving coca cultivation and cocaine manufacturing techniques. This becomes apparent when considering that despite Bogota’s mounting efforts to eradicate coca crops, destroy illegal laboratories and interdict shipments cocaine supply continues expanding. As the chart shows, 2023 seizures of cocaine reached an all-time high, which incidentally did nothing to curb the flow of the narcotic.

    Source: UNODC Colombia Coca Cultivation Surveys 2013 to 2023.

    These developments, especially with coca cultivation and cocaine production hitting annual highs every year over the last decade, sparked considerable controversy over whether the drug is Colombia’s most valuable commodity. Over a year ago, Bloomberg claimed cocaine was on track to overtake oil and become Colombia’s top export. Unsurprisingly, since that article cocaine production has soared by over 50% while coca cultivation expanded by 10%, with those numbers underscoring just how efficient the manufacture of the narcotic is becoming.

    It is difficult to see cocaine shipments from Colombia exceeding the value of petroleum exports any time soon. For 2023, National Statistical Agency data shows oil exports earned Colombia nearly $16 billion (Spanish), whereas various estimates put the value of cocaine shipments at around $7 billion. Of grave concern is that soaring coca cultivation and cocaine output pose a genuine threat to the economy and socioeconomic stability, especially in rural Colombia. The substantial profits generated by cocaine strengthen illegal armed groups, enhancing their efforts to challenge the state by undermining the rule of law and government institutions through corruption and violence. This will impact Colombia’s floundering economy, particularly the oil industry, while derailing urgently needed socioeconomic development and destroying communities.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/30/2025 – 21:05

  • US Dept Of Education Investigating All-Gender Restroom At Denver High School
    US Dept Of Education Investigating All-Gender Restroom At Denver High School

    Following through on Donald Trump’s campaign promise to eradicate “transgender insanity,” the Department of Education’s Office for Civil Rights (OCR) has launched a probe targeting a Denver high school’s all-gender restroom. 

    Denver East High School, the largest in the Denver Public Schools system, caused controversy when it recently converted the only girls’ restroom on the second floor into an all-gender restroom, while leaving the boys’ room on the same floor untouched. With a word choice that seemed like a Freudian slip, district spokesman Scott Pribble confirmed to Denver’s 9News that “the transition of the girls’ bathroom…occurred over the winter break,” but denied that there was any agenda other than convenience. However, the Denver Post reports that the school board in 2020 set forth a requirement that every school must have at least one all-gender restroom.  

    The “transitioned” restroom’s stalls are divided by 12-foot partitions and metal blocks to prevent peeking through the space around the door. Earlier this month, East High parent Lori Ramos told the school board that the move was way out of line:  

    “[The] Administration has sacrificed the comfort of these young females for this dubious change by now limiting their options…We, as adults, should be protecting students at all costs, not using minors for this social experiment. This in my opinion is unlawful, immoral and it is, in fact, a form of abuse.”

    The Trump administration’s move against the Denver district is likely the first of many across the country. “Let me be clear: It is a new day in America, and under President Trump, OCR will not tolerate discrimination of any kind,” said Department of Education Acting Assistant Secretary of OCR Craig Trainor in a statement. “I have directed OCR’s Denver regional office to investigate this matter fully.”

    Denver Public Schools is the largest district in the state, with some 85,000 students, 14,000 employees, 200 schools and a $1.45 billion budget. Superintendent Marrero’s official profile contains a red flag alerting readers to his wokeness: He describes himself as the first “Latinx” head of the district. That leftist-contrived, gender-neutral alternative to “Latino” is rejected by 75% of Latinos who are familiar with the term.  

    Denver Public Schools superintendent Alex Marrero refers to himself as “Latinx” and reportedly has a $329,400 salary

    In a notification letter to district superintendent Alex Marrero, Trainor said the “investigation will examine whether the District discriminates against students on the basis of sex by installing multi-stall all gender restrooms in District school facilities, in violation of Title IX.” The district is susceptible to charge thanks to its receipt of federal money — $96 million during the current academic year alone.  

    Some doubt that the investigation will ultimately compel a reversal. “They are arguing that an all-gender restroom isn’t comparable to a single-gender restroom,” the Association of Title IX Administrators’ Brett Sokolow told the Post. “You’d have to establish that somehow you have a right to a single-sex bathroom, and while the Trump administration may believe that, I don’t know if that will be upheld by the courts.”

    The district scoffed at the development. “It is unprecedented for the Office for Civil Rights to admittedly initiate its own investigation, into a single bathroom, as a result of local media coverage,” said Pribble in a district statement. He and others should brace for many more precedent-breaking moves by a Trump administration that seems hell-bent on smashing government-imposed woke-ism in all its forms.  

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/30/2025 – 20:40

  • The Doomsday Clock Is About To Strike Midnight!
    The Doomsday Clock Is About To Strike Midnight!

    The hands of the symbolic Doomsday Clock are set at 89 seconds to midnight – closer to global catastrophe than ever before…

    The Doomsday Clock, or the Nuclear War Clock, represents how close we are veering towards a human-made global catastrophe.

    According to the “Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists”, a magazine for nuclear scientists, the latest downtick is based on the continued threats of nuclear weapons, climate change and the potential misuse of biological science and new technologies. 

    But as David Middleton writes for WattsUpWithThat.com, it’s amazing that these clowns didn’t explicitly blame this on President Trump…

    Closer than ever: It is now 89 seconds to midnight

    In 2024, humanity edged ever closer to catastrophe. Trends that have deeply concerned the Science and Security Board continued, and despite unmistakable signs of danger, national leaders and their societies have failed to do what is needed to change course. Consequently, we now move the Doomsday Clock from 90 seconds to 89 seconds to midnight—the closest it has ever been to catastrophe.

    […]

    In regard to nuclear risk, the war in Ukraine, now in its third year, looms over the world; the conflict could become nuclear at any moment because of a rash decision or through accident or miscalculation. Conflict in the Middle East threatens to spiral out of control into a wider war without warning. 

    […]

    The impacts of climate change increased in the last year as myriad indicators, including sea-level rise and global surface temperature, surpassed previous records.

    […]

    In the biological arena, emerging and re-emerging diseases continue to threaten the economy, society, and security of the world. The off-season appearance and in-season continuance of highly pathogenic avian influenza…

    […]

    An array of other disruptive technologies advanced last year in ways that make the world more dangerous. Systems that incorporate artificial intelligence…

    […]

    The dangers we have just listed are greatly exacerbated by a potent threat multiplier: the spread of misinformation, disinformation, and conspiracy theories that degrade the communication ecosystem and increasingly blur the line between truth and falsehood.

    […]

    Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

    Seven paragraphs full of “misinformation, disinformation, and conspiracy theories” followed by a stern warning about spreading “misinformation, disinformation, and conspiracy theories”…

    I couldn’t make this sort of schist up if I was trying.

    Nuclear Risk

    [T]he conflict could become nuclear at any moment because of a rash decision or through accident or miscalculation…

    That risk left the White House on January 20, 2025, right after preemptively pardoning his entire crime family.

    Climate Change

    Sea-level rise and global surface temperature, surpassed previous records…

    According to NASA sea level has risen by 100.9 mm since 1993. That’s almost four whole inches!!! Enough to swamp four quarters or a baseball card or even a beer can!

    Sea level actually receded a bit since last June…

    2024 was the warmest year in the satellite era…

    Roy Spencer, PhD

    2024 beat the previous record by a whopping 0.4 °C. Let’s apply some scale and context:

    It’s currently about 1.4 °C warmer than when “The Ice Age Cometh“…

    If not for the warming allegedly caused by capitalism, it would still be just as cold now as it was in March 1975:

    Science News March 1, 1975

    Seems kind of mild compared to the Cuban Missile Crisis or Soviet tanks rolling into Hungary, Czechoslovakia and Afghanistan.

    Pandemics and Skynet and Free Speech! Oh My!

    The off-season appearance and in-season continuance of highly pathogenic avian influenza…

    Breitbart

    The price of eggs sucks! But… 89 seconds to Doomsday? Not!

    Systems that incorporate artificial intelligence…

    AI is a long way from Skynet I Googled my favorite garbled lyric from the Toto song Africa: “There’s nothing that a hundred men on Mars could ever do.” The Google AI confirmed my garbled lyric:

    The actual lyric is, “There’s nothing that a hundred men or more could ever do.” Now I know how Captain Kirk was able to short circuit androids.

    The dangers we have just listed are greatly exacerbated by a potent threat multiplier: the spread of misinformation, disinformation, and conspiracy theories that degrade the communication ecosystem and increasingly blur the line between truth and falsehood.

    Remember when this was a misinformation conspiracy theory that would get you banned from social media?

    Breitbart

    The Shamdemic and 2020 coup de d’état clearly demonstrated this principle:

    The notion that we are much closer to Doomsday now than when we were losing the Cold War is clearly the perfect example of “the spread of misinformation, disinformation, and conspiracy theories that degrade the communication ecosystem and increasingly blur the line between truth and falsehood.”

    The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January 1980

    So… I say… Let’s run out the clock!

    Let these clowns keep on crying wolf right on down to midnight. I’m pretty sure we’ll still be…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/30/2025 – 20:15

  • Goldman's Heat Map For Housing Market Ahead Of Spring Selling Season
    Goldman’s Heat Map For Housing Market Ahead Of Spring Selling Season

    Sales of US existing homes last year slumped to their lowest level since 1995. With the Federal Reserve expected to slash interest rates twice (2x 25bps) this year, homebuilders will likely thrive while the secondary market remains subdued. 

    Goldman’s Susan Maklari, Charles Perron-Piche, and others released a note this week highlighting single-family permits as a key real-time indicator of housing supply and demand trends across the broad US market and individual regions. 

    The analysts provided clients with a heatmap of homebuilders based on single-family permit activity over a 3-month and 12-month period, offering critical insights into future housing supply, builder confidence, and consumer demand. 

    Here’s what they found on a broad level and region by region:

    On a trailing 12-month basis, single-family permits rose 8% YOY in December, vs +10% in November and off a 6% decline a year ago. Single-family home values grew 3% YOY nationally according to Zillow, similar to the prior month, with 13 states seeing gains of 5+% vs 12 in November, while 34 rose 0-5%, down from 36 sequentially. Louisiana saw home values contract 1% YOY while Florida and Texas were roughly flat. That said, Nevada and Virginia both rose 5% and California increased 3% while Tennessee, Georgia, Utah, and the Carolinas were all +2%. The lift in permits comes despite the 30-year mortgage rate holding near 7% as the start of the selling season approaches and reflects builders’ willingness to use rate buydowns to support closings, at the expense of profitability.

    …

    Permits Rise on Rolling 3-Month Basis Despite Underperformance in Florida: Single-family permits for the 3-months ended December rose 2% YOY, compared to a 1% increase in November and off +25% a year ago, and grew 6% vs the comparable pre-pandemic period. There were 16 states that rose more than 10%, down from 17 in November. We note the relative underperformance of Florida as public builders across price points adjust to the rise in for-sale inventory over the last several months and ongoing weakness in key markets such as Tampa coming into the year. In our view, this should help stabilize conditions as these areas are also continuing to recover from the hurricanes last fall.

    Trailing 12 Month Single-Family Permits by State

    Trailing 3 Month Single-Family Permits by State

    Southeast Markets Lag on MSA Basis: Permits in the top 50 MSAs decreased 1% YOY for the 3 months ended December, vs -2% in November and off +34% a year ago. On a YOY basis, Stockton, CA (+56%), Salt Lake City, UT (+39%), and Boise, ID (+31%) showed the greatest gains while Myrtle Beach, SC (-45%), Lakeland, FL (-36%), and Tampa, FL (-32%) lagged. On a 2-year stacked basis, growth was led by Provo, UT (+181%), Boise, ID (+160%), and Stockton, CA (+118%). On a 2-year stack, we note 7 of the top 10 MSAs are in the South or West.

    Zillow Single-Family Home Value Index YOY % Change

    In a separate note, Nick Gerli, CEO and Founder of real estate analytics firm Reventure Consulting, wrote on X, “Probably my favorite housing market graph right now. Orange line is inventory levels in Florida & Texas, combined. Blue line is inventory level across entire Northeast US.” 

    The takeaway is that housing markets across the Sun Belt, like Florida, face mounting headwinds, such as elevated inventory, after several boom years during the Covid era of low interest rates. The heatmaps of single-family permits show a real-time pulse of these markets ahead of the spring selling season.

    *  *  *

    More on the housing market for prospective homebuyers…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    . . . 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/30/2025 – 19:50

  • Slash The Fat: 16 Agencies To Terminate
    Slash The Fat: 16 Agencies To Terminate

    Authored by David Stockman via The Brownstone Institute,

    The following is excerpted from Chapter One of David Stockman’s latest book, How To Cut $2 Trillion: A Blueprint From Ronald Reagan’s Budget Cutter To Musk, Ramaswamy And The DOGE Team.

    Under our three savings bucket scheme, “Slashing the Fat” from the Federal payroll and bureaucracy would account for just $400 billion or 20% of DOGE’s $2 trillion per year savings target. Needless to say, however, even that small portion would be far easier said than done.

    That’s because, unlike the case of typical US businesses, where payroll costs can range from 15% to 40% of total costs, such expenses comprise only a tiny fraction of total Federal spending. Setting aside DOD payrolls for the “Downsize the Muscle” bucket, we estimate fully-loaded nondefense employee compensation costs at $215 billion in the target year of FY 2029. That’s just 3.1% of the $7 trillion of nondefense outlays projected under current policy by CBO for what would be the final Trump budget.

    So there is a lot of wood to chop in other areas of nondefense spending, but we start with the assumption that $85 billion or 40% of nondefense payroll costs would be a fair component of a broader plan to generate the $400 billion of “Slash the Fat” savings. At the projected FY 2029 cost of $160,000 per Federal employee for payroll, benefits, and fringes, this would require termination of 535,000 positions from the current total of 1,343,000 nondefense employees.

    On its face, this headcount reduction target is eminently plausible given that the Washington Swamp is a vast cesspool of padded payrolls, useless projects, endemic inefficiency, and misbegotten government enterprises. But what is especially telling is that our 40% payroll cut would amount to just half of the 80% staff reduction that Elon Musk achieved at the old Twitter. And he did so in the context of a labor-intensive business without missing a beat in terms of operations and customer accommodation at the new “X.”

    So we begin the payroll savings analysis by bringing the hammer down terminally on the 16 worst and most unneeded Federal agencies, including the FBI, OSHA, the FTC, and the Department of Education. Eliminating these 16 bureaucracies entirely would reduce Federal employment by 71,000 jobs and save $11.1 billion per year of direct compensation costs. That’s nothing to sneeze at, of course, but to place it in budgetary context it does represent only 13 hours’ worth of the $8.0 trillion per year of total baseline Federal spending for the target budget year of FY 2029.

    We also show that cutting 50% of the staff levels at another 9 dubious departments–including the EPA, NASA, and GSA–would shrink the Federal payroll by an additional 93,000. That would save a further $15 billion annually in compensation costs.

    Still, we would need an additional $59 billion in nondefense savings to achieve the $85 billion target for direct compensation reductions. Accordingly, upwards of 371,000 positions would need to be eliminated from the balance of the nondefense agencies or about 34% of the 1,084,000 current jobs at everything from the Agriculture Department to the Social Security Administration and Veterans health care system.

    In addition, we estimate that $85 billion in compensation cost savings would generate an additional $45 billion of indirect savings in the related costs for agency overhead, occupancy, supplies, and outside contractor services.

    In summary, therefore, we’d propose that about one-third of the “Slash the Fat” savings target of $400 billion be obtained from the following areas inside the four walls of nondefense government. Chapter 6 will also outline $270 billion of savings from outside the walls of nondefense government in the form of cuts in corporate welfare, farmer subsidies, the Green New Deal, and other wasteful private sector subventions.

    Summary of Savings From Headcount and Nondefense Agency Waste Reductions (FY 2029):

    • 100% Elimination of Staffing at 16 Unnecessary Federal Agencies: $11 billion.

    • 50% Staffing Cut at 9 Dubious Federal Agencies: $15 billion.

    • 34% Staff Reduction at All Other Nondefense Departments: $59 billion.

    • Indirect Overhead savings from nondefense staff reductions and agency eliminations: $45 billion.

    • Total Nondefense Staff and Overhead Savings: $130 billion.

    We begin with a summary of the 16 agencies to be shut down, along with the number of staff positions to be eliminated and the resulting direct employee compensation savings. These agencies are slated for complete elimination because in the context of a roaring fiscal crisis, they are either utterly unnecessary or inappropriate functions of government or comprise activities that are already being handled by other Federal agencies, state and local governments, or the private sector.

    Self-evidently, these 16 agency closures would result in only a small down payment against the $2 trillion per year savings goal. Yet it is crucial to start here because each of these agencies represent cases of egregious regulatory excess or Washington-based enterprises that are not remotely the business of the central government in any season, but most especially not during a time when the Federal government is careening toward the fiscal shoals.

    Stated differently, the list below comprises a kind of Litmus Test of fiscal resolve.

    If these Federal bureaucrats and agencies can’t be eliminated, the prospect for reining in America’s unfolding fiscal calamity is dim indeed.

    16 Agencies To Be Eliminated–Staff Cuts and Payroll Savings:

    • National Endowment for the Arts: 100 staff and $16 million savings.

    • National Endowment for the Humanities: 100 staff and $16 million savings.

    • Legal Services Corporation: 800 staff and $128 million savings.

    • National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA): 600 staff and $96 million savings.

    • Federal Trade Commission (FTC): 1,125 staff and $180 million savings.

    • Corporation for Public Broadcasting: 100 staff and $16 million savings.

    • OSHA: 2,200 staff and $352 million savings.

    • Consumer Products Safety Commission: 600 staff and $96 million savings.

    • Agency for Global Media: 1,125 staff and $180 million of savings.

    • National Endowment for Democracy (NED): 162 staff and $26 million savings.

    • Education Department: 4,245 staff and $680 million savings.

    • Consumer Financial Protection Bureau: 1,500 staff and $240 million savings.

    • Agency for International Development (AID): 10,000 staff and $1.6 billion savings.

    • FBI: 34,000 staff and $5.4 billion savings.

    • BATF: 5,300 staff and $848 million savings.

    • DEA: 9,315 staff and $1.49 billion savings.

    • Total 16 Agencies To Be Eliminated: 71,000 staff and $11.3 billion savings.

    As it happens, many of the above listed agencies were on the original Reagan zero-out list of 1981. Yet they are still alive and prosperous because the Swamp is relentless in the defense of its own, and especially because on the margin even most of the GOP movers and shakers on the Congressional spending committees have been Washington lifers, RINOs, and political weaklings afraid to resist the politically correct dictates of the Washington establishment and their megaphones in the MSM.

    National Endowments for the Arts and Humanities

    For instance, they are still spending about $420 million per year on the National Endowments for the Arts and the National Endowment for the Humanities. Back in 1981, when the public debt was still under $1 trillion and 31% of GDP, we argued that the cultural institutions supported by the endowments should be funded by private philanthropy and public admission tickets to museums, operas, etc., not hard-pressed bus drivers in Milwaukee struggling to feed, clothe, and shelter their families; and most certainly not via borrowing from future taxpayers through endless deficit finance.

    At the time, the net worth of the top 1% of households was about $3 trillion, indicating ample capacity among wealthy patrons to support America’s important cultural institutions and endeavors, along with the voluntary support of millions of other less prosperous but culturally engaged citizens.

    Well, here we are 44 years later with a public debt of $36 trillion and heading skyward, while the net worth of the wealthiest 1% of US households has risen by 16X to $47 trillion. And that staggering wealth pile stands alongside an additional current net worth of $10 trillion for the next 9% of wealthiest households. Yet and yet: The clueless politicians on the Potomac are still borrowing money to fund cultural institutions when the top 10% of US households alone have $56 trillion of net worth available for support of the arts and humanities.

    In this instance, we’d suggest that Elon Musk set the example by pledging $2 billion over the next five years to enable cultural institutions and artists time to locate alternative sources of funding, thereby permitting the national endowments to be zeroed out immediately. This would at least get the agency-elimination ball rolling with a bang!

    To be sure, shutting down the two endowments would result in a reduction of only 200 Federal jobs and a compensation cost savings of just $32 million per year, but as we will detail below, it would also generate additional savings from grants and overhead of $390 million.

    In any event, this is surely the place to start. After all, if the Trumpified Washington can’t even eliminate these two agencies, why then, truly, all is lost.

    The same goes for the 800 staffers and $128 million of savings from eliminating the Legal Services Corporation. For crying out loud, this whole operation is a liberal hobby horse dating back to the early days of the War on Poverty in 1965.

    If the dubious political litigation it mainly supports via direct staff and another $432 million of grants and contracts has not found non-Federal funding more than a half century later, it doesn’t deserve another dime from Uncle Sam. Period.

    National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)

    In the case of the NHTSA, we have the very worst of the Nanny State. It has not only usurped the role of the private market and legal liability system in determining appropriate engineering standards for auto safety, but for decades has been knee-deep in setting idiotic average fuel economy standards (CAFE) for the entire fleet of each automaker.

    This causes immense distortions in vehicle offerings, pricing, and production sourcing. That’s because to meet fleetwide fuel economy mandates each automaker must average together the lower fuel economy ratings of heavier, higher performance and profitable vehicles the public actually wants to buy with the artificially high fuel economy levels of small, stripped-down, under-powered cars that they must be deeply discounted to move the metal owing to limited marketplace appeal. In the process of compliance, automakers also tend to shift sourcing of the latter small, cheap “compliance” vehicles to Mexico and East Asia in order to relieve the strain on profitability resulting from these largely unprofitable NHTSA-mandated autos.

    Accordingly, we would propose to abolish the NHTSA and in one fell swoop get rid of 600 bureaucrats and an overall waste of $1.2 billion per year, including about $500 million of safety grants to the states. With respect to the latter, if the genius socialist legislators in Sacramento and Albany want to steer their own unwashed driving masses to purportedly safer modes of happy motoring, let them do so on their own taxpayers’ dime.

    Abolition of the NHTSA would also return consumer vehicle choice to the marketplace and likely bring a lot of current foreign-sourced auto production back home. That is to say, most of today’s auto companies–both the Big Three and foreign brands–make a decent profit manufacturing full-sized sedans, SUV’s, and pickups in the United States. Upon abolition of the CAFE program, therefore, Nanny State-mandated and foreign-sourced econo-boxes would lose their helping hand from Washington, paving the way for more US-built vehicles on dealer lots that consumers actually wish to buy.

    And, yes, if consumers want six airbags per car as now mandated by the NHTSA (standard sedans are required to have two frontal airbags, two side airbags and two curtain airbags to protect occupants in the event of a side-impact crash), manufacturers will offer dealer-installed options at the appropriate (steepish) markup to base sticker prices. Indeed, the idea that consumers need a Federal Auto Nanny in order to choose a “safe” vehicle goes back to Ralph Nader’s original grab for regulatory power back in the 1970s and 1980s, which we fought in Washington when at least some Republicans still understood the statist scam of alleged “market imperfections.”

    Federal Trade Commission

    America imports $3.1 trillion of goods every year, which is testimony in itself that planet earth is crawling with potential competitors, fair and unfair. This actual and potential competition militates against the ability of any domestic manufacturer to monopolize anything.

    In fact, students of sound market economics have understood since at least the 1960s the populist idea that private capitalism is an incubator of monopoly is just plain nonsense. With extremely rare exceptions, monopolies and rigged oligopolies only arise when they are enabled by the state via regulatory favoritism and capture, subsidies, and/or protectionist restraints of both domestic and international trade.

    So what Washington needs is not anti-monopoly policemen, but the elimination of crony-capitalist policies that bestow unfair and coercive competitive advantage on politically privileged competitors. Most certainly, therefore, two anti-monopoly bureaucracies are way beyond the ken, meaning that the FTC should be abolished entirely. If need be, any minor residual meddling with business in this area can be handled by a low-cost rump operation in a drastically downsized antitrust division of the DOJ.

    Again, savings of $180 million per year of FTC compensation expense is more than warranted, even as it would free American business from Nanny State meddling that results from 1,125 FTC staffers scurrying around in search of imaginary problems to justify their salaries. And, as we will amplify below, there would be a bonus savings here of $250 million, representing the non-payroll waste incurred by the FTC.

    Corporation for Public Broadcasting

    Even back in the world of 1981, there was no case for public funding of radio and TV, but by the year 2024 it has become a screaming instance of “Oh, puleeeze!”

    The powerful presence of “X” (nee Twitter) is testimony itself that the dominant hometown newspaper and three broadcast networks no longer have even a remote monopoly on the news. That was the ostensible reason for the government-funded NPR back in the day, which, predictably, was bypassed by the flowering of tens of thousands of technologically and market-based alternative media and news/information/entertainment venues. And then, even as NPR became redundant and utterly unnecessary, it morphed into a state propaganda agency to boot.

    Accordingly, the CPB’s 100 staffers should be told to send their resumes to the blooming, buzzing world of alternative media on Day 1, even as the expense of $16 million for compensation and $520 million for affiliate grants and contracts is eliminated. Cold turkey would be the obvious way to serve up the savings in this case.

    OSHA (Occupational Health and Safety Administration) 

    As it happens, there are approximately 90,000 units of state, county, city, village, and township government in the United States–the overwhelming share of which are involved in the business of grassroots public health and safety administration and enforcement in some form. So, if these manifold units of government can’t look after safety in the workplace–from farms to warehouses and factories–what’s even the point of the Founders’ genius? Namely, their acute understanding that healthy democracy requires a decentralized federalist form of the state, not a unitary power in a capital city distant from the daily life of the people and the marketplaces and communities in which they operate.

    Beyond that, there is no absolute science of workplace safety. Always and everywhere, it involves a trade-off between levels of protection and costs, and also choices among an infinite array of engineering versus behavior approaches to safety–all of which have their pros and cons. That’s why a federalist approach is tailor-made for the very function and jurisdiction of OSHA.

    That is to say, Justice Brandeis had the answer more than a century ago when he argued that the states were the proper laboratories of democracy and that many of the functions Washington has since usurped might be better experimented with and executed at the state and local level.

    In the case of cowboy safety, for example, the California-style approach illustrated below might be appropriate for a state that lost its cowboys long ago, anyway. But Texas, which still has some, might well prefer a more practical and less burdensome approach.

    In any event, 2,200 bureaucrats and inspectors on the OSHA payroll are absolutely unnecessary to insure safe workplaces in America. Not only would the elimination of OSHA save $350 million of staffing costs and $1.3 billion of annual Federal expense overall, but it would also relieve businesses and workplaces in America of literally billions of compliance costs and millions of hours of paperwork that represent the inherent overkill of a centralized bureaucracy that has become a captive of its own labor union constituencies.

    Besides, we’d bet that Florida, the Carolinas, and Texas would be more than happy to accommodate the relocation of businesses that might be chased away by a mini-OSHA in Albany, Sacramento, or Springfield. That is, competition among the states for investment, jobs, and a favorable business climate is likely to be a far more powerful brake on regulatory agency excesses than the so-called Congressional oversight committees ever have been, or even the courts–neither of which have real skin in the game.

    Consumer Products Safety Commission (CPSC)

    Even more than OSHA, the Consumer Products Safety Commission is a case of the Nanny State run wild. When you look at the main product categories of its regulatory focus listed below, you have to wonder how in the world American consumers even dared go into a furniture mart, hardware store, or children’s toy emporium without risking the life and limb of themselves and their families before CPSC’s enactment in 1972; and also what the other 90,000 units of state and local government were doing with respect to the very prosaic matter of household product safety–to say nothing of parents and grandparents.

    As to the latter, we have fond memories of a 12-foot-high swing our grandfather rigged up from the high limb of a big Maple tree in our backyard. He was undoubtedly not CPSC-compliant in his swing making, but he damn well knew what was safe for kids and therefore secured the ropes and seat far more safely than what happened when we kids used his swing to “bail out” in imitation of fighter pilots exiting a burning plane.

    Then again, the free market has a very powerful incentive for vendors to make and sell safe products: Namely, the protection of their brand franchises and avoidance of devastating legal liability settlements for defective products, which settlements in today’s world can badly impair or even bankrupt a careless or crooked business. After all, the torts bar was a powerful health and safety line of defense for consumers long before the Nanny State even arose.

    In any event, as in the case of workplace safety there is no “science” whatsoever with respect to “safe” baby cribs, adult mattresses, power drills, deodorants, or ATVs. It’s all a matter of trade-offs between cost and functionality, on the one hand, versus product safety, on the other. It also involves complex issues of engineering versus behavior-based risk mitigation, and ultimately turns on consumer preferences and risk propensities.

    For instance, the “sport” of skydiving is both hazardous and fully legal, but an inherently safer ATV must have CPSC-compliant roll bars, seat belts, helmets, safety instruction manuals, and speed governors on models designed for younger drivers.

    Indeed, if any of the products listed below actually require state-imposed regulation reaching beyond the inherent protections of liability law, there is still absolutely no reason to supersede the ample net of traditional regulation by state and local governments, trade associations, and insurers of product liability risk that existed before 1972.

    Yet this very observation tells you all you need to know about Nanny State regulation. To wit, the CPSC has thrived politically over the decades since 1972 because crony capitalists have learned to love regulation from the Washington Swamp. Very simply, it avoids the inconvenience and costs of meeting different regulatory standards in California versus Utah and Indiana; makes for one-stop lobbying on K-Street; and creates barriers to entry for upstart competitors.

    Then again, it is not the legitimate business of the Federal government to protect American businesses from the foolishness of regulatory zealots in the Socialist Republic of California or the New York Soviet in Albany. Once again, in fact, the only practical way to minimize wasteful and costly regulatory interference with the production and sale of the myriads of everyday consumer products listed below is via energetic competition between the states.

    We are quite confident that the likes of Utah, Kansas, Tennessee, and Florida would find the right balance with respect to the safety of cribs, toasters, bicycles, and camping gear long before consumers were forced to march on Sacramento seeking regulatory relief from California-mandated high-cost and low-performance versions of these same products.

    Functions of the CPSC:

    • Ensuring the safety of toys, cribs, strollers, and other children’s items.

    • Regulating items like furniture, mattresses, and household appliances to prevent injuries from fires, falls, and electrical hazards.

    • Ensuring the safety of sports equipment, bicycles, and playground equipment like slides and swings.

    • Ensuring that consumer electronics, including small appliances and power tools, meet safety standards to prevent electrical shocks and fires.

    • Regulating household chemicals, cosmetics, and personal care products to reduce risks of poisoning, burns, and other injuries.

    • Overseeing the safety of items like ATVs, boats, and camping equipment.

    Agency For Global Media

    The Congressional foreign affairs and national security committees thrive upon globetrotting junkets and strutting around foreign lands as visiting plenipotentiaries of the American Empire. So they have found it inconvenient to acknowledge that the Cold War ended 34 years ago and that many of the institutions erected to fight it are now utterly obsolete, if they were ever necessary in the first place.

    The prime example of this would be the string of US government propaganda agencies including the Voice of America, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Radio Free Asia, and the Middle East Broadcasting Network. These were all designed to counter exaggerated claims that the commies were on the march toward global domination and that the backward peoples of other nations needed to be educated as to this danger by enlightened patriots bivouacked on the banks of the Potomac.

    Of course, the commies are now long gone. Well, unless you think the Red Capitalists of Beijing are really mobilizing a vast armada of 100 aircraft carriers and troop ships to disembark on the shores of California, thereby destroying their own global export trade, Ponzi economy, and basis for continued rule in the process.

    To the contrary, of course, the picture is more nearly the opposite: The calamity of Vietnam, two pointless but bloody and destructive wars in Iraq, the veritable carnage visited upon Syria, Libya, and Yemen by American arms and the missiles and bombs stamped “Made in the USA” now raining down from the skies in Gaza, Lebanon, and Ukraine surely leave serious doubt about whether any of these obsolete propaganda agencies are convincing the unwashed masses anywhere on the planet to bend a knee toward Washington.

    In any event, an America First national security policy focused on an invincible nuclear deterrent and safeguarding of the North American shorelines and airspace from conventional attack, as we will outline under the “Downsize the Muscle” basket in Chapter 7, doesn’t need to waste a single dime on the 1,125 bureaucrats employed by the parent agency of these Cold War relics. And that’s especially the case in an internet-saturated world where even the muscular dictators of Beijing and their Great Firewall of China can’t effectively suppress unauthorized communications emanating from outside the Middle Kingdom.

    Abolishing the Agency for Global Media would thus save $180 million per year in direct compensation costs and an additional $770 million wasted on contractors, facilities, communications equipment, and rentals, etc. In a world with today’s communications technology, in fact, America is inherently, for good or ill, the proverbial light on the hill.

    That’s because anything and everything which transpires here–from sea to shining sea–is transparent to the entire planet. The world now sees on the internet all that we do in real time and makes its own judgment. Washington doesn’t need to waste dollars it doesn’t have on the salaries of journalism school graduates peddling Warfare State propaganda in the process of building up their own resumes for more lucrative opportunities in the MSM.

    National Endowment for Democracy (NED)

    The 162 staffers and $315 million annual budget of NED are not only a waste, but also a purely destructive project of the Washington neocons and warhawks. We fought it tooth-and-nail when it was concocted in 1983 by neocons in the Reagan White House, arguing it would become a sinecure for Washington national security lifers who didn’t make the big grades at the CIA, State, and DOD.

    We were right about that in spades. A former president of the Young People’s Socialist League (YPSL), Carl Gershman, became its first executive director in 1984 and was still there in 2021, when they finally gave him his gold watch. But like all former Trotskyites who turned neocon under the tutelage of the detestable Irving Kristol and his equally reprehensible son, Bill Kristol, Gershman spent the 37 years of his tenure carrying out the CIA’s regime-change function that was seconded to NED in the 1983 legislation.

    Among all of the “color revolution” follies promoted by NED during these years, the most insidious was its role in organizing, funding, and enabling the Maidan uprising in Kiev during February 2014. That pointless exercise in regime change paved the way for the Washington-fostered putsch which installed neo-Nazi-sympathizers and militant Ukrainian nationalists in power in Kiev.

    In turn, Washington’s illegal deposing of the legitimately elected Russian-speaking and Russian-sympathizing president, Viktor Yanukovych, who had won office in 2010 on the back of massive 80%+ margins in the Donbas, Crimea, and Black Sea rim, paved the way for the current civil war carnage, and disastrous proxy war on Russia. After all, the Ukrainian nationalists who were picked, named, and recognized by Washington quickly put joining NATO into Ukraine’s constitution, outlawed Russian language, and launched a brutal civil war against breakaway Russian-speaking regions, thereby eventually provoking the Russian invasion of February 2022.

    Since then, the US has spent upwards of $150 billion on a pointless war of human and infrastructure destruction–a veritable demolition derby of senseless military intervention. And one which now threatens to bring Washington’s reckless proxy attack on Russia to the brink of nuclear confrontation. Yet the Ukraine disaster is the very quintessential work of NED. That alone merits its abolition–no more questions asked.

    But, alas, there is another point. More than half of NED’s annual $300 million of taxpayer money is used to sustain the worst kind of Washington insider corruption, log-rolling, and self-justifying promotion of the Warfare State. To wit, half the funds are divided up among institutions controlled by the four big political powers which operate on the banks of the Potomac. That is, the union-promoted “American Center for International Labor Solidarity,” the business-sponsored “Center for International Private Enterprise,” the Democrat-controlled “National Democratic Institute for International Affairs,” and the GOP-controlled “International Republican Institute.” The purpose of these Beltway duchies, of course, is to fund cheerleaders for the projects of Empire abroad.

    Moreover, for good measure, the balance of the $300 million goes to hundreds of NGOs based abroad. These are essentially the advance guard of Washington’s Empire First policies and should not get a dime under a regime of America First.

    It can be well and truly said, therefore, that there is no conceivable waste more egregious and more rotten than that embodied in NED. It needs to be shot deader than bin Laden at the very earliest opportunity.

    Education Department

    Needless to say, the Education Department should never have been potted on the banks of the Potomac because education is meant to be a state, local, and parental function across the length and breadth of the land. Indeed, centralization and national dictation of educational processes, standards, content, and institutional arrangements is the very last thing that should come under the control of the central state.

    The current education department came into existence, in fact, only in 1979 as a desperate Carter administration sop to the teachers’ unions, which were the backbone of his political coalition. Accordingly, an immediate shutdown of this still infant and unneeded department was a high priority on the Reagan administration’s zero-out list.

    As it happened, however, squirrely GOP politicians on the Congressional education committees and a Secretary of Education who spent his time in office sabotaging the president’s budget prevented the Department from being strangled in the cradle as intended. Instead, the education lobby’s victory over the Reagan challenge enabled the new department to thrive without interruption for the next 40 years until reaching a monstrous $350 billion spending level at present.

    Still, there is only one way to ensure free expression, diversity of pedagogical approaches, and unfettered experimentation in the education sector. To wit, abolish the Department of Education completely, spin off existing Federal grant activities in block grants to the states, at a reduced percentage of existing funding levels, and slash subsidized student aid by 40%, as we outline in Chapter 8.

    Actually, this is not mission impossible. During 2024 the broad allocation of the Department of Education’s funding was as follows:

    • Elementary and secondary education grants and support: $52 billion.

    • Special Education, Adult, Career, and other Education programs: $18 billion.

    • Higher Education Pell Grants, Work Study, and other student direct aid: $30 billion.

    • Subsidized Student Loan Outlays: $250 billion.

    • Total, Federal Education Programs: $350 billion.

    Needless to say, DOGE could dispense with the Department of Education’s 4,245 bureaucrats and their $680 million compensation costs in one fell swoop by proposing to eliminate the department entirely. Yet the educational institutions of America would be no worse for the wear if the massive array of programs and activities now administered by the department at huge overhead costs were to be bundled up into block grants and distributed on a no-strings basis to the states in direct proportion to each state’s share of Federal taxes.

    Thus, the first two lines above could be combined in the form of an “Elementary and Secondary Education Block Grant” and funded at 70% of current levels or $49 billion per year, while the dozens of programs under the third line would be packaged into a “Higher Education Block Grant” at an initial level of $18 billion. Since both block grants would represent a pure return of Federal taxes paid by the states’ taxpayers, the block grants could be phased out progressively over the ten years after 2029–an ample period of time to permit the states to tax and fund their own education programs or return the money to taxpayers, as they so choose.

    Finally, the very idea of “student loans” is flat-out ridiculous because in today’s dynamic world it is virtually impossible to solvently underwrite the value of a higher education. And that’s true whether in advanced mathematics or basket-weaving, as the case may be. Indeed, as the recent Biden reelection-driven loan forgiveness ploy reminds, “student loans” are essentially nascent welfare grants waiting for opportunistic politicians to cancel the repayments.

    This whole area of student financial assistance therefore belongs entirely in the realm of income transfer payments and social redistribution. If the latter is to be done at all, it should preferably be based on economic need and structured according to the lights of voters and their legislators in the several states. So if California wants to offer college students a bonanza of subsidies, it should ask its own taxpayers to foot the bill.

    In any event, abolishing Federally funded student loans would mainly reduce the current deep implicit Federal subsidies to the affluent upper middle class and the rich who owe most of the $1.74 trillion of student loans outstanding. That’s a most worthy goal in its own right, while the favorable FY 2029 and longer-term budget impact will be amplified in Chapter 8.

    Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB)

    Never has a more unnecessary and utterly wasteful agency been created in Washington than the CFPB, which was a conscience-relieving sop to Congressional liberals and other Beltway politicians concocted by Senator Chris Dodd and Congressman Barney Frank to atone for Congress’ egregious $700 billion TARP bailout of Wall Street. Yet the so-called Great Financial Crisis had been caused by reckless mortgage and housing market speculation enabled by the Fed’s hideously low interest rates, not sharp practices at retail banking windows.

    Even the abuses of so-called liars’ loans and other scams in the home mortgage market were a function of easy money and lax oversight by bank supervisory agencies, not because mortgage borrowers got tricked into lying about their income or assets!

    So there was exactly zero reason to stand up a new $650 million per year regulatory agency sporting 1,500 more bureaucrats to protect financial services consumers. Well, except to humor Congressional grandees like Dodd and Frank and their GOP co-conspirators on the other side of the aisle.

    Indeed, the CFPB’s stated mission “to protect consumers in the financial marketplace by ensuring transparency, fairness, and accountability” is outright nonsensical. The fact is, due to regulatory protections and generous government subsidies like FDIC insurance the US economy is vastly overbanked.

    There are now roughly 5,400 banks and thrifts holding $24 trillion of assets–along with 4,600 credit unions, 240 money market funds, and a proliferating array of online nonbank alternatives that expand by the day. And all of these institutions are hungry for business and aggressively compete for customers. One bank’s sharp practices, therefore, is the next bank’s sales pitch as to why it is more trustworthy and reliable.

    So it’s time Washington finally recognizes that the consumer’s best and ultimate protection is the competitive free market and that today’s financial system is prodigiously endowed with exactly that. Consumers plainly do not need a Financial Nanny on the banks of the Potomac minding the business of their business.

    Yet here is what we have today: $640 million worth of bureaucratic busywork and meddling going down the drain for no good reason whatsoever. For crying out loud, the central government should not be funding the $100 million shown below for “consumer education, engagement, and response,” whatever that is.

    Moreover, banks and financial institutions, which were already the most regulated and supervised businesses in America back in 2010, didn’t need another $300 million layer of Washington busybodies and regulatory gumshoes overlooking their activities, as also shown below. They already had the Federal Reserve, Office of the Controller of the Currency, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the SEC, the National Credit Union Administration, the Office of Thrift Supervision, and at least 50 state banking supervisors and regulatory agencies.

    In short, termination of the current 1,500 employees of the CFPB and their $240 million annual expense is a no-brainer. So is saving the $400 million balance of the CFPB’s budget, which is currently wasted on contractors, grants, advertising, and other superfluous overhead.

    And, no, the fact that these expenses are charged to the Federal Reserve’s budget is no excuse. Under the law, the Fed remits all system profits to the US Treasury, which profits are now being unnecessarily reduced by the $640 million annual waste of the CFPB.

    CFPB Annual Budget

    Agency For International Development (AID)

    Foreign aid has always been a waste and failure, even in the context of an Empire First foreign policy and quasi-balanced fiscal environment. But under an America First regime and in fiscal conditions literally hemorrhaging red ink, foreign aid amounts to a Sacred Cow that needs to be slaughtered forthwith.

    In Chapter 7 we will amplify on how a true America First national security policy would focus almost exclusively on maintaining an invincible strategic nuclear deterrent and a powerful conventional defense of the coastlines and airspace of North America. But suffice it here to note that wasting money Washington doesn’t have on development projects, so-called humanitarian relief, and walking around money for corrupt foreign governments does absolutely nothing for homeland security properly defined.

    For want of doubt, here are the 10 largest recipients of U.S. foreign aid (excluding weapons financing) for 2024. Self-evidently, the disastrous proxy war against Russia is enabling Ukraine to absorb the lion’s share of the grift. Yet the result of keeping the Ukrainian government on Washington-infused life support is ultimately a threat, not a boost, to homeland security if it leads to nuclear confrontation with Russia.

    Likewise, Ethiopia, Jordan, Somalia, Nigeria, and the now ascendant jihadist opposition forces which overthrew Assad in Syria (who actually get the money) have absolutely nothing to do with safeguarding the liberty of Americans from Maine to Hawaii. And most especially the multi-billion slice of the AID budget which goes to “implementation of the National Strategy for Gender Equity and Equality…(and) to uplift the role of women and girls in all their diversity, including as part of marginalized populations” is purely wokish nonsense utterly irrelevant to national security.

    Top Recipients of Non-Military Foreign Aid

    1. Ukraine: $16.5 billion

    2. Ethiopia: $2.2 billion

    3. Jordan: $1.2 billion

    4. Democratic Republic of Congo: $1 billion

    5. Somalia: $1 billion

    6. Yemen: $933.9 million

    7. Nigeria: $904.4 million

    8. Afghanistan: $815.1 million

    9. South Sudan: $794.2 million

    10. Syria: $748.2 million

    Thus, simply closing the Agency for International Development would rid the Swamp of 10,000 bureaucrats at an annual direct compensation cost of $1.6 billion. But that would be just the tip of the iceberg. AID has offices and operations in more than 70 countries around the planet. And these offices are loaded with bureaucrats in the service of Empire First, who are equipped with checkbooks from which upwards of $30 billion of grants are funded annually.

    Indeed, zeroing out AID in its entirety is a downright mandatory component of any attempt to slash the Federal budget by $2 trillion. When America is careening toward a ruinous $150 trillion public debt by mid-century it borders on criminal negligence for Washington to send $794 million per year to the likes of South Sudan. The latter is a godforsaken hellhole in central Africa with a GDP of barely $5 billion and per capita income of just $400. Yet AID is shoveling in assistance equal to more than 16% of GDP!

    Even more ridiculous is the fact that while Washington has been bombing the Houthi-controlled northern areas of Yemen to smithereens at a cost to the US military of $3 billion in the last three years alone, it is also sending foreign aid of $933 million per year to the government in the south of the country, thereby enabling the Sunni south to pursue its decades-old civil war against the Shiite north. Perhaps it might be more rational to stop both streams of funding and allow the Yemenis to pursue their own civil war in peace–or at least without supervision and meddling by folks on the banks of the Potomac.

    And, no, protecting the shipping lanes into the Red Sea is not a matter of US national security. The Chinese container ships and Saudi oil tankers heading for Europe through the Bab-El-Man-deb Strait can always reroute around the Cape of Africa at a small premium if they deem the Red Sea route too hazardous. And, self-evidently, Washington has no business subsidizing cheaper ocean freight to Europe for the oil princes and Chicoms.

    At the end of the day, the Yemen idiocy on display above is no aberration. It represents the inherent stupidity and waste of an imperial foreign policy that attempts to dominate every obscure corner of the planet for no reason of homeland security whatsoever. Therefore, one of the first initiatives of President Trump’s pivot to America First must be the complete shutdown of the AID.

    FBI

    The Federal Bureau of Investigation is a Washington institution steeped in ignominy and disdain for constitutional liberty and democracy. Its forerunner was created during the horrific Red Scare Raids of Attorney General Mitchell in 1919; it flourished prosecuting the idiotic regime of Prohibition during the 1920s; rose to malefic aspect during the Hoover era of Communist witch-hunting and vicious prosecution of civil rights and peace leaders like Martin Luther King Jr; became a fount of false fear-mongering, stings, and entrapment ploys during the War on Terror; and ended up being weaponized by Deep State nomenklatura to destroy the duly elected President of the United States in 2016 and after.

    In short, that’s 100 years of assault on the rule of law, not its promotion. That history is reason enough to abolish the FBI completely, thereby shrinking the Federal payroll by more than 37,000, at a savings of $6 billion in direct compensation costs and another $5 billion in overhead and operating expenses.

    The fact is, there never was a need for the FBI in the first place–outside of political opportunism and the furtherance of crusades which are not within the proper purview of the Federal government. Again, however, we have 90,000 units of state and local government for a reason: That is, to decentralize the exercise of government power, and enforcement of the criminal laws is precisely one of those functions best kept as far away from the nation’s capital as possible, as the checkered history of the FBI proves in spades.

    In any event, as a practical matter crime prosecution and enforcement is already overwhelmingly conducted by state and local police forces and courts. For instance, there are currently about 7.4 million arrests in the US each year, but only about 10,000 of these are executed by the FBI. That’s just 0.14%.

    Likewise, there are currently 1,214,000 police and law enforcement personnel on the payrolls of state and local governments in the US. That compares to just 15,000 FBI officers (out of 37,300 staff) involved in domestic criminal law enforcement. This includes all agents and support personnel who work on a wide range of federal crimes such as cybercrime, drug trafficking, violent crime, and white-collar offenses, but, again, it amounts to only 1.2% of the state and local police force level.

    At the end of the day, just $2.5 billion of the FBI’s $11.4 billion budget is involved in what it generously classifies as “counter-terrorism.” We’d say cut that figure by 60% and spin these personnel and activities off to a $1 billion per year counter-terrorism unit in the DOJ. Any real threat of terrorism in the US, as opposed to self-serving FBI concocted stings like the alleged plot to kidnap the governor of Michigan, can be readily handled on a $1 billion annual budget.

    After that, close down everything else to the tune of a 34,000-headcount reduction and direct compensation cost savings of $5.4 billion per year–along with another $5 billion of savings from FBI overhead, contractors, occupancy, travel, and other costs.

    Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA)

    The War on Drugs was misbegotten from the get-go back when Tricky Dick Nixon launched it in 1970. The only thing it has accomplished is to breed criminals and a brutal underground distribution system funded by the wildly excessive profits owing to the artificial scarcity created by drug law enforcement and interdiction. It has also filled the nation’s jails and prisons, mainly on possession charges, thereby providing a taxpayer-funded program where inmates get a free in-house education on how to conduct real criminal activities after their release.

    In short, the War on Drugs is a grotesque violation of Market Economics 101. There is simply no other way to characterize the utter stupidity of fostering criminal cartels to do the work of growing, manufacturing, packaging, distribution, and sales that would otherwise be handled by the far more pacific channels of everyday commerce. Indeed, the harsher and more intensive the enforcement against so-called illegal drugs, the greater the amount of crime and the more extensive and tragic the collateral harm that is created as a secondary consequence.

    For instance, the plague of fentanyl deaths is clearly owing to the high price of heroin, meth, and other illegal substances stemming from the War on Drugs, which, in turn, encourages the importation and use of fentanyl. Fentanyl is cheaper to produce, easier to smuggle, and extremely potent, making it a lucrative alternative for traffickers. This economic incentive drives its widespread distribution and use, despite its high lethality.

    In any event, the surest way to reduce crime at both the borders and in the cities and hinterlands of America alike would be to shut down the DEA cold turkey, releasing 9,300 Federal bureaucrats for more productive work elsewhere. Needless to say, once these hobnailers are off the street, the price of illegal drugs would fall sharply, along with the profitability and incentives for violence among the criminal cartels which run the drug trade.

    In all, terminating the DEA would cut its direct compensation cost by $1.5 billion per year, as well as save another $1.6 billion for operations, contractors, and overhead functions. There is hardly any other agency termination candidate where the case is so overwhelming.

    Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF)

    Ronald Reagan famously said that a government bureau is the nearest thing to eternal life, and surely the ATF is testimony to that aphorism. In 1920 it was born as the Prohibition Bureau, which housed the hated “revenooers.” After the Volstead Act was repealed in 1933 it continued to stumble between the Treasury Department and the Justice Department over the decades, looking for missions to justify continued funding. Even in relative bureaucratic obscurity, it gained notoriety for the armed standoff at Ruby Ridge, the extermination of the Branch Davidians at Waco, Texas, and the gun “misplacement” scandal of Operation Fast and Furious, among numerous other bureaucratic misfires.

    Yet an analysis of what its 5,300 employees and $850 million compensation budget actually accomplish makes clear that the time to terminate the agency arrived long ago. There is absolutely no reason for the Federal government to be in the alcohol, tobacco, and explosives enforcement business at all. Those are inherently functions of state and local government, if they are to be legally regulated and enforced at all.

    Allocation of ATF’s $1.7 Billion Budget

    Likewise, its $500 million budget for “firearms enforcement” is just a polite term for the administration of gun control laws, which self-evidently don’t control much of anything. Thus, the number of deaths–both suicide and homicides–due to guns has more than doubled from 20,336 in 1968 to 47,284 in 2021, which translates to rates of 10.1 per 100,000 population in 1968 and 14.1 per 100,000 in 2021. So much for the ATF’s enforcement prowess.

    In any event, whatever these ATF bureaucrats might be doing that is necessary and legitimate should be turned over to regular state and local law enforcement. If any rump agency is needed to enforce largely ineffective federal gun control laws–given that there are upwards of one-half billion guns in circulation in the US–these activities can be seconded to a modest residual bureau in the Justice Department at the approximate size of the Office of Violence Against Women ($500 million).

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/30/2025 – 19:25

  • Trump Admin Canceling Funding To NGOs Involved In Illegal Immigration, Noem Says
    Trump Admin Canceling Funding To NGOs Involved In Illegal Immigration, Noem Says

    Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said on Wednesday that the Trump administration will cancel funding to nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) that facilitate illegal immigration.

    The comment was made as federal immigration officials ramp up enforcement efforts across the United States and in major cities.

    Noem said that the administration “has stopped all grant funding that’s being abused by NGOs that’s being used to facilitate illegal immigration” into the United States.

    “Many of these NGOs actually have infrastructure and operations set up in Mexico, on that side of the border, and are telling those illegal immigrants to come to them, and they will get them across the border,” Noem said in an interview on the Fox News Channel’s “Will Cain Show.”

    Those NGOs, she said, are “not just operating in the United States, they’re operating outside the United States to help make it easier for those who want to break our laws.”

    As Jack Phillips reports via The Epoch Times, the Trump administration will freeze funding to those groups and determine whether those funds were going to causes aligned with the White House’s policies, she said. A review will be carried out, and before then, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) will not spend more to help “the destruction of this country,” she added.

    “When somebody said NGO to me, I thought that [was] a nonprofit telling somebody about Jesus or spreading faith and salvation,” Noem said.

    “Then I realized over the years, it’s been perverted into this shadow government.”

    Noem, who was confirmed as DHS secretary over the weekend, posted a video and photos of her near a New York City immigration enforcement operation on X early Tuesday, highlighting the arrest of a suspect and saying the Trump administration was “making our streets safe.”

    The Trump administration has stepped up immigration arrests in recent days with about 1,000–1,200 arrests per day, according to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in updates posted on social media. The daily average in fiscal year 2024 was 311.

    Trump has issued an array of executive orders to crack down on illegal immigration after taking office on Jan. 20, including actions aimed at deporting record numbers of illegal immigrants from the United States.

    Trump says urgent action is needed after millions illegally entered during the Biden administration, while critics say Trump could hurt businesses and separate families.

    Meanwhile, the Office of Management and Budget earlier this week issued an order to freeze federal grants and funding before that memo was rescinded later. That order had impacted funding to certain NGOs, including a Catholic charities organization that provides services to illegal immigrants and poorer Americans.

    In a statement, Catholic Charities USA head Kerry Alys Robinson called on the Trump administration to reconsider the funding freeze because it has been providing “vital services” such as access to health care, housing, food, and more.

    Noem also said in the Fox News interview that Secretary of State Marco Rubio is now working to find ways to convince other nations to accept the return of their nationals.

    “I was talking to him on the phone at 1 o’clock in the morning, and he was up and still discussing negotiations with other countries,” she said. “And the president, clearly, will exercise all the authority and power that he has to make these countries take them back.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/30/2025 – 19:00

  • Classical Education Resurgence Is Shaping School Choice
    Classical Education Resurgence Is Shaping School Choice

    Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Teach them how to learn, not what to learn.

    That’s the key concept for classical education, which is enjoying a national resurgence, with Florida leading the way.

    Classical education advocates hope their movement will expand from private religious and chartered learning institutions to struggling public schools.

    Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock

    Hope is high in the wake of an election year that saw the selection of pro-school choice candidates across the country, including President Donald Trump.

    “During COVID, parents saw what their kids were learning, and there was general disappointment with the level of learning that was happening,” Colleen Hroncich, a policy analyst with the Cato Institute Center for Educational Freedom, told The Epoch Times.

    “The public education model has had a monopoly [on learning], but it’s mediocre definitionally. They’re serving the middle students. They are trying to reach that average student that doesn’t exist.”

    Standard U.S. public education is referred to as the traditional model, even though classical learning, also known as liberal arts education, predates the era of neighborhood schools, local districts, and state education departments by centuries, according to the Association of Classical Christian Schools (ACCS).

    Classical education can be traced back to the ancient Greeks and is rooted in Christianity and Western teachings, the ACCS notes. It promotes moral development and emphasizes older literature such as Aristotle and Shakespeare instead of contemporary texts.

    Under the classical education model, three pillars of learning—grammar, logic, and rhetoric—are applied holistically to all subjects with the goal of obtaining wisdom, not just understanding, according to the Classical Academy school in Indianapolis.

    By contrast, in a traditional public education setting, subjects are compartmentalized and students engage in syllabus-led courses and project-based activities, with the goal of developing foundational skills through the accumulation of facts and information, according to the official Common Core website.

    The vast majority of states have adopted Common Core standards.

    The Classical Academy provides an example of the three-pillar concept on its website:

    In a lesson about the War of 1812, students are first assigned to learn the facts (grammar) of that event, including names, dates, and places. Then, they apply what they’ve learned to answer questions about why the war started, how the war ended, and why it ended (logic).

    “At the rhetoric stage, students would begin to integrate that grammar and logic, seeing where else in history or life we see similar patterns or outcomes, and what those might mean for our present every day life,” the Classical Academy notes.

    The same topic in a traditional classroom might also involve memorizing the key facts of the War of 1812, followed by an in-class assignment completed on a laptop or tablet, either individually or in small groups. In that system, the emphasis is on demonstrating knowledge retained from the lesson specific to the topic but not necessarily how it relates to other events, past or present.

    Children learn a variety of subjects in the arts and sciences. Courtesy of Hillsdale College

    “It seems simple, but in all the noise of every next new thing in education trends, we have lost the ability to think for ourselves, to reason logically and persuasively, to maintain a love of learning, and to graduate compelling thought leaders who possess the gifts and abilities needed to shape culture and bring new innovative work to mankind,” the Classical Academy website states.

    Alternative Learning Follows Pandemic

    In the past four years alone, 250 classical schools collectively serving nearly 14,000 students have opened, according to an August report from The Heritage Foundation. A fifth of them are in Florida.

    All told, more than 677,000 children in grades K–12 were enrolled in classical education programs last year, a 2024 market analysis report by Arcadia Education states.

    That includes students in 1,024 Christian Evangelical schools, 308 Catholic schools, and 219 public charter schools.

    Additionally, about 261,000 students were homeschooled using classical curricula.

    Between 2017 and 2023, homeschooling under classical education instruction increased by 51 percent, followed by 7 percent in private religious schools and 4 percent in public schools, according to the report.

    Arcadia forecasts an increase to 1.4 million students and 2,575 schools by 2035, including 119 new charter schools and 200 existing public schools that will adopt the classical curriculum.

    “Many parents from diverse socioeconomic backgrounds are increasingly of like mind: Pre-K–12 education ought to prioritize a traditional focus on content, instill civic virtues and discourse in every student, and avoid an outsized emphasis on popular culture and politics,” the report stated.

    Public schools still hold the overwhelming majority of U.S. students. In the fall of 2022, about 48.1 million K–12 students were enrolled in public schools, according to data from the National Center for Education Statistics.

    Abigail Previlon, 13, takes part in remote distance learning on a Chromebook with the help of her mother Carlene at home in Stamford, Conn., on Oct. 28, 2020. Stamford Public Schools is using a hybrid educational model during the pandemic, with a combination of in-class and distance learning. John Moore/Getty Images

    Opposition From Public School Teachers

    Teachers unions at the national and local levels have opposed school choice measures, especially taxpayer-funded voucher programs that fund private school tuition, because they could decrease enrollment-based funding.

    The Network for Public Education (NPE), in its July 2023 report “Sharp Turn Right,” acknowledged the growth of classical education public charter schools but denounced them as institutions that serve white Christian nationalism and “the Conservative agenda.”

    “These charter schools have become weapons of the right as they seek to destroy Democratically governed public schools while turning back the clock on education and social progress by a century,” the NPE report states.

    “Charter schools took a sharp turn right and now serve a purpose never imagined by their early proponents. The only question that remains is whether moderate, progressive, liberal-minded voters and politicians recognize where the runaway charter movement is headed.”

    Based on an informal survey of their websites, classical schools, unlike public schools in several states, place little or no emphasis on social-emotional learning, critical race theory, gender ideology, or diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives.

    Read the rest here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/30/2025 – 18:40

  • DOJ May Drop Charges Against NY Mayor Eric Adams: Report
    DOJ May Drop Charges Against NY Mayor Eric Adams: Report

    Senior officials within the Department of Justice (DOJ) have held discussions with federal prosecutors in Manhattan about the possibility of dropping their corruption case against New York Mayor Eric Adams, which emerged after Adams voiced criticism against the Biden administration’s open border policies, the NY Times reports, citing (as always) anonymous sources.

    DOJ officials, through the office of President Trump’s new deputy AG, Emil Bove, have also spoken to Adams’ defense counsel since Donald Trump took office, the NY Post further confirms.

    Adams notably met with Trump on Jan. 17 at the President’s West Palm Beach, Florida golf course. The Mayor has denied that his legal woes were discussed during the visit, though Trump did speak about a “weaponized” DOJ, according to a person briefed on the meeting.

    Adams’ legal team is led by Elon Musk’s attorney, Alex Spiro.

    Prior to taking office, Trump had discussed the possibility of pardoning Adams, saying he thought the NY Mayor had been “treated pretty unfairly.”

    Instead of a pardon, however, discussions have pivoted to the DOJ simply dropping the charges, sparing Trump from having to use those pardoning powers, according to the Times, which notes that if prosecutors were to dismiss the case, it would allow Adams to tout his innocence as he seeks reelection.

    Responding to the Times‘ anonymous sources who claim that Adams wouldn’t be willing to play ball with Trump’s immigration crackdown if he remained under indictment, Spiro strongly denied the suggestion, calling it “a complete lie.”

    DOJ officials in Washington are expected to meet with Manhattan prosecutors, as well as Adams’ team, as soon as this week.

    Adams was indicted in September on charges including bribery, fraud, and soliciting illegal foreign campaign contributions in an investigation that began in 2021. He has pleaded not guilty and maintained his innocence.

    The Times admits that it’s not unusual for DOJ officials in Washington to discuss high-profile criminal cases with Manhattan prosecutors (Trump case, anyone?) – however there is no indication that officials in the Southern District of NY plan to drop the case. It’s also common for defense lawyers in high profile cases to ask senior DOJ officials to scale back or drop prosecutions.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/30/2025 – 18:20

  • The Panic About Trump's New Coin Is Overwrought
    The Panic About Trump’s New Coin Is Overwrought

    Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

    Last week saw every manner of wailing and gnashing of teeth about the so-called meme coin of the Trump campaign called $TRUMP. It was created three days before the inauguration, soared to a $50 billion market cap, and settled down, with half the owners new to the crypto market.

    Another coin is $MELANIA, and it followed a similar path.

    We’ll see if these have much of a future, but they sure did generate commentary, with even people inside the industry furious that the coin exists at all.

    Others described this as nothing short of corruption and a very bad sign that Trump has linked arms with a wealthy tech set and is using those contacts to pad his personal wealth with $TRUMP as the main case in point.

    The new tokens were floated by CIC Digital LLC and Fight Fight Fight LLC, both Trump family companies. Yes, Trump stands to benefit but only if the initial investors cash out right now. The market capitalization is not the same as profits.

    The high dudgeon of opposition surrounding this product is quite ridiculous, in my view, and telling because nothing else that the Trump team has done has generated this level of frenzy. People rolled their eyes at the gold sneakers, the non-fungible trading cards, and the “Fight, Fight, Fight” cologne. Somehow, when the exact same marketing approaches are deployed within the spooky land of crypto tokens, everyone loses their minds.

    Let’s take a step back and examine the history of the technology in question. After the digital age kicked off in the 1990s, there were myriad attempts to figure out how to use these new tools to create digital forms of money and finance. The perception was that this was a new age and that we needed upgraded forms of payment and finance—and maybe more—to go along with it.

    But there were several major problems standing in the way. The internet as a technology can be seen as a giant and nearly infinite copying machine, whereas money, payments, and finance are all about ownership and title transfer. Without a secure and unhackable record of who owns what at any given moment, the experiment would always fail given the nature of digital distribution.

    Sure enough, many attempts to create money and payment systems in that period failed. They were hacked. They were flooded with database calls that crashed sites. And there was always a trust problem because the ledgers were proprietary and lacked any real means of verifying what belonged to whom or even whether the whole company was really a scam.

    Many years went by before a group of developers put together all the necessary pieces to make Bitcoin possible. They included double-key encryption, a public ledger, protocol to incentivize the hosting of the ledger, and a strict limit on the pace of token creation. The innovators called it the blockchain, and Bitcoin was the premier product. The result was the creation of a distributed system of data ownership and exchange that operated without any institutional intermediaries.

    Bitcoin was not a proprietary technology. It was a headline demonstration of an underlying technology that was advertised as peer-to-peer cash. The original protocol even contained smart contracting possibilities that later came to evolve with the system Ethereum. This is why it immediately spawned other coins and tokens such as Litecoin and XRP among many others. Fifteen years later, there are tens and even hundreds of thousands of such products, including oddities such as non-fungible tokens of art and so on.

    No day goes by when I do not get pitched another product along with a fancy-sounding white paper. I long ago gave up on all these things because so many were what anyone would describe as “scams.” That such scams exist is not the fault of the technology any more than fake art is the fault of paints and canvases.

    In addition, the technology has been used for money laundering for political purposes, as we saw with Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX. We do not know the fullness of who or what was behind this racket but its so-called investors included some of the biggest names in finance and politics.

    That said, among many sketchy projects are many wonderful ones too.

    When Bitcoin was released, many people assumed it was just an alternative money and that was all. But we gradually came to realize that the real value was in the underlying technological suite that enabled something else—namely, the democratization of finance too. Blockchain tokens can be used to raise capital outside banks, non-banks, and traditional venture capitalists. The people themselves were suddenly in a position to make a vote of confidence in a venture simply by adding a token to their portfolios.

    This realization gave rise to wild joy in the period between 2013 and 2017 concerning the rise of a new method of money, finance, and capital markets all based on blockchain technology that enlisted people of all incomes and classes into the grand project of making prosperity. The rise of these token markets was part of it.

    It was also during this period that regulators became ever more involved in the burgeoning sector. They were trying to hammer the new technology into behaving exactly like the technology it was replacing. That was never going to happen, but the attempt created a vast and growing regulatory thicket surrounding the crypto market that mostly ended up benefiting armies of lawyers that are now required to do anything in this realm.

    This is precisely what Trump has sworn to wipe out, finally embracing blockchain and crypto as a worthy innovation with the hope that the United States will emerge as the global leader in this sector. If he succeeds, it would be glorious for prosperity and freedom in the United States. For those of us who have followed this industry from its inception, this is a very exciting prospect.

    If you have stayed with this piece so far, there is another strange feature of this market you need to understand. From the very beginning of this industry, there was a group that believed that instead of a broad-based technology, the innovation in question was exclusively about Bitcoin only. I’ve never understood this argument, so I have a hard time recreating the arguments for it other than to say that such people exist and that they are very powerful.

    Over time, they developed a name for themselves, Bitcoin Maximalists, and they were successful in turning Bitcoin from a people’s money into a restricted token for specialized use, even to the point of railing against any other token or deployments as inherently fraudulent. They pushed all existing holders of Bitcoin never to sell but only buy, which raised the question of what precisely this token is for apart from making money for the people who got into the market earliest. Their answer involves a whole series of claims I won’t go into here. Suffice to say, I’ve never believed that this market would thrive by restricting innovation and competition; indeed, the whole point of crypto is to foster both.

    The so-called Maximalists have been highly influential in Trump circles, having backed him for president and winnowed their way toward political and regulatory influence. This has always concerned me because their primary interests, so far as I can tell, are less about freedom as such (plus disintermediation, democratization of finance, and monetary entrepreneurship) but industrial success for a single product that they happened to own.

    One thing about Trump that we should know by now is that he recoils against any interest group that claims to have a hold on his thinking and decision-making. He is always in a daily and hourly struggle to declare his independence against special interests. He is glad to work with powerful and rich people but resists all attempts by such interests to manage his own judgment about what should happen.

    This is precisely why I saw the pre-inaugural creation of the meme coin called $TRUMP as a wonderful thing. The usual suspects within the crypto world condemned the whole episode as terrible for the industry, an opinion happily echoed by the likes of New York Times journalists and so on.

    As a longtime observer of the pushes and pulls within this sector, the deployment of $TRUMP as a marketing tool for Trump’s enterprises strikes me as a very good sign. The technology is complicated and subject to mischaracterization, but it is best to think of this as the same as Trump cologne, sneakers, and pens. You are free to think such things are tacky, but the market is what speaks in the end.

    *  *  *

    Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/30/2025 – 18:00

  • Chicago Mayor's Office Improperly Blocked Access To Lavish 'Gift Room': Inspector General
    Chicago Mayor’s Office Improperly Blocked Access To Lavish ‘Gift Room’: Inspector General

    Chicago’s Inspector General dropped a bombshell report revealing that Mayor Brandon Johnson’s office improperly blocked public access to a special room within City Hall containing gifts to the city – including designer handbags, cufflinks, and a personalized Mont Blanc pen.

    A new report from Inspector General Deborah Witzburg’s office concludes that Johnson’s office violated a city ethics policy requiring that any gifts valued at more than $50 and “accepted on behalf of the city” be logged into a book that is made available to the public on the 5th floor of City Hall.

    But when two undercover investigators from the IG’s office visited the mayor’s office last June, they were denied access to the log, and instead told to file a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request to see it.

    Then, when the IG’s office filed a FOIA request, the mayor’s office refused to respond to it on time – only to provide an incomplete spreadsheet of the gifts more than a month after the request was filed.

    “That’s certainly concerning to me,” said Witzburg. ” Where there’s anything of value being exchanged, we would absolutely want to know whether those gifts are coming from people looking for influence in some way — whether those are lobbyists, or people doing business with the city.”

    “Notably, a response to the FOIA request OIG submitted as a member of the public came only after OIG also issued a compelled document request to the Mayor’s Office seeking the same information,” reads the report.

    Some of the 380 gifts listed included Hugo Boss cufflinks; Givenchy, Gucci, and Kate Spade handbags; a personalized Mont Blanc pen; a 2003 U.S. National Soccer Team jersey; size 14 Carrucci men’s shoes; and even whiskey—as being stored in a “Gift Room,” and others in the Mayor’s personal office in City Hall. –CBS News

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Next, the IG’s office showed up in person unannounced to see the gift log, only to be told by Johnson’s staffers that they were told by the city’s Law Department that the IG must make an appointment to access the gift room. According to the report, the city’s municipal code requires all city employees to cooperate with IG investigations, including making any records available “as soon as practicable.”

    And after speaking with the Law Department, the IG’s office said in the report that they were told they “would not be granted access to the Gift Room” to conduct a full inspection.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “Is it possible that there are a bunch of Gucci handbags neatly on a shelf in a gift room at City Hall, and no one’s using them, and nothing has gone wrong, and everything’s fine? Yes, that is possible,” said Witzburg. “But we’re not in a position for a lot of benefit of the doubt here.”

    Johnson Defiant

    In response the report, the Mayor’s office argued that the city’s municipal code and ethics ordinance don’t require them to make the gift room available for unannounced inspections.

    “Notwithstanding the foregoing, the Mayor’s Office remains fully committed to ensuring that gifts are available for inspection through a properly scheduled appointment at the earliest practicable time,” said mayoral chief of staff Cristina Pacione-Zayas in response to the inspector general’s report. “This administration has and will continue to comply with all guidance from the Board of Ethics  … Our duty to do so is without objection.”

    “I’ve never even seen this room that they’re talking about,” said Johnson. “I don’t mean to make light of, you know, this so-called investigation, but quite frankly, it bears very little. If people want a tour of this room, I’ll sign up, because I’ve never been to it myself.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/30/2025 – 17:40

  • Ron Paul: To Make America Great Again, Separate Money And State
    Ron Paul: To Make America Great Again, Separate Money And State

    Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute,

    “Delivering Emergency Price Relief for American Families and Defeating the Cost-of-Living Crisis” is the title of one of the many executive orders President Trump issued in his first week back in the Oval Office. This executive order directs federal agencies to “deliver emergency price relief” to the American people by reducing federal regulations that increase the cost or limit the supply of healthcare, housing, energy, and other goods and services.

    Repealing regulations is an effective way to reduce costs and increase supply in the affected industries. However, the price increases caused by regulations are sector specific. Economy-wide price increases are caused by the Federal Reserve.

    Widespread price increases are the result of inflation. Inflation occurs when the central bank lowers interest rates by increasing the money supply.

    In his remarks by video on Thursday before the World Economic Forum’s yearly meeting in Davos, Switzerland, President Trump said he would soon meet with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to “demand” the Fed cut interest rates in order to help Americans cope with high prices. Pumping more money into the economy may give some consumers a temporary boost in purchasing power, but a long-term effect of the cut will be further erosion of most Americans’ standard of living as the influx of new money causes the dollar to lose value.

    The short-term benefits of any increase of the money supply and reduction in interest rates are mostly felt by the well-off since they receive the new money before other Americans. So they enjoy increased purchasing power before the Fed’s inflationary policies cause prices to rise.

    Interest rates are the price of money. As with all prices, interest rates inform market actors about market conditions. When the central bank manipulates the interest rates, it distorts the signals sent to market actors, causing misallocation of resources. The result is a “bubble” that produces a short-term boost in employment and incomes. However, the bubble will eventually burst, causing a recession. Just as middle- and lower-income Americans suffer most from the Federal Reserve-caused price increases, they are the primary victims of the Federal Reserve-caused recession.

    The best thing Congress and the Federal Reserve can do when a bubble bursts is let the recession run its course. Recessions are necessary to remove the distortions caused by the Federal Reserve’s easy money policies. Of course, Congress and the Federal Reserve refuse to take the sensible, though politically difficult, path. Instead, they set the stage for the next bubble via “stimulus” spending and low interest rates.

    President Trump claims he knows more about interest rates than does Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Whether or not President Trump’s experience in real estate development (a business that is very sensitive to changes in interest rates) makes him more of an expert on interest rates than Chairman Powell is beside the point. No politician, bureaucrat, or central banker can know the correct interest rate. The only way to know the correct rate is to allow individuals acting in a free market to set the interest rate.

    Despite his misunderstanding of monetary policy, President Trump deserves credit for publicly criticizing the Federal Reserve.

    President Trump should follow through on his critiques of the Fed by working with Congress to pass the Audit the Fed bill and legislation allowing people to use alternatives like precious metals and cryptocurrencies.

    Restoring a free market in money is key to fulfilling President Trump’s inaugural pledge to bring about a new golden age.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/30/2025 – 17:20

  • Apple Slides After iPhone Sales Miss, China Revenues Unexpectedly Tumble
    Apple Slides After iPhone Sales Miss, China Revenues Unexpectedly Tumble

    Ahead of earnings of the world’s largest company which however has been going through a painful period of remarkable underperformance vs the Nasdaq, UBS had Apple sentiment at a quite subdued 5/10, saying that a number of folks are “treating the name as a funding short – a view mirrored in its elevated short interest (though it’s not a stand-out short in our Prime book, and the recent -11% pullback may have taken out some of that caution).” That said, UBS writes that there’s “no doubt AAPL finds itself well-positioned to mediate consumer AI adoption – a fact that keeps long-onlies engaged at these multiples… which are not worrisome for a services company like the one AAPL continues to become, notwithstanding the loss of GOOGL’s TAC fee.”

    Still, for a stock that owes its last 50% in price upside to the euphoric post CCDC 2024 meltup, when the narrative emerged that AAPL would capitalize on the AI boom, only to find itself in a dismal position with virtually zero uptake, the downside for the company could be substantial if the market finally starts demanding some returns on the what is now becoming a very long AI hype cycle for the world’s most valuable smartphone company with virtually no IRR to show for it.

    Even Bloomberg admits that it’s undeniable that Apple is in a bit of a troubled period. While rivals are thriving in artificial intelligence, Apple is a clear laggard with an inferior product that has missed the boat in the age of ChatGPT, Gemini and, now, DeepSeek. While Apple Intelligence was meant to help sell iPhones, it’s likely that the year-over-year bump we may see today in revenue is stemming from other changes — like slightly bigger screens and new camera features — as well as pent-up demand. The AI features have rolled out slowly and are thus far not much more than a marketing gimmick.

    In any case, Apple is set to report its holiday quarter earnings results, which naturally is the most important period of the year, given that the company sees most of its sales over the holidays and saves its major new products for release during the quarter. Wall Street, matching Apple’s forecast from last fall, expects Apple’s sales to increase about 4% on an annual basis as the company reports its strongest results ever. As we previewed earlier, analysts estimate Apple will report $124 billion in revenue and its best iPhone quarter since 2022. Here are the average estimates compiled by Bloomberg for the major categories:

    • iPhone revenue: $71 billion
    • iPad revenue: $7.35 billion
    • Mac revenue: $7.94 billion
    • Wearables, Home and Accessories revenue: $12 billion
    • Services revenue: $26.1 billion

    If these numbers hold, that would mean Apple is looking at a clean sweep of growth annually in all of its product categories.

    So how did AAPL do? Well, as many warned, the two weakest links – namely iPhone sales and China – is precisely what Apple disappointed. Here are the details:

    • Adjusted EPS $2.40 vs. $2.18 y/y, beating estimate $2.35
      • Revenue $124.30 billion, +4% y/y, beating estimates $124.1 billion
        • Products revenue $97.96 billion, +1.6% y/y, missing estimates of $98.02 billion
        • IPhone revenue $69.14 billion, -0.8% y/y, badly missing estimates of $71.04 billion
        • Mac revenue $8.99 billion, +16% y/y, beating estimates of $7.94 billion
        • IPad revenue $8.09 billion, +15% y/y, beating estimates of $7.35 billion
        • Wearables, home and accessories $11.75 billion, -1.7% y/y, missing estimates of $11.95 billion
    • Service revenue $26.34 billion, +14% y/y, beating estimates of $26.1 billion

    The one – very big – fly in the ointment was the usual suspect: China, where revenues unexpectedly tumbled, sliding a whopping 11%, and badly missing estimates of a $21.57BN print

    • Greater China rev. $18.51 billion, -11% y/y, estimate $21.57 billion

    Going down the line:

    • Total operating expenses $15.44 billion, +6.6% y/y, above estimates of $15.34 billion
    • Cost of sales $66.03 billion, +2% y/y, above estimates of $65.98 billion
    • Gross margin $58.28 billion, +6.2% y/y, above estimates of $57.98 billion
    • Cash and cash equivalents $30.30 billion, -26% y/y, below estimates of $36.45 billion

    And so on:

    Looking at a breakdown of sales by product category it goes from bad to worse, because not only did revenue from the iPhone came in much lower than expected, at $69.1 billion, below estimates of $71.0 billion but it was actually down 1.4% YoY. So much for any hopes of an AI supercycle.

    The rest of the product suite was mixed with Mac and iPad revenue coming in above estimates while wearables missed. Here are the details: .

    • IPhone revenue $69.14 billion, down 0.8% y/y, and missing estimate $71.04 billion
    • Mac revenue $8.99 billion, +16% y/y, beating estimates of $7.94 billion
    • IPad revenue $8.09 billion, +15% y/y, also beating estimates of $7.35 billion
    • Wearables, Home and Accessories was another disappointment, declining considerably and missing Wall Street expectations, wit: 11.75 billion, down 1.7% y/y, and missing estimate $11.95 billion

    Bottom line, there simply is not a lot of excitement in Apple’s wearables segment right now where we already know the Vision Pro has been a huge flop and is doing nothing to help the top line, while Apple only released one new Apple Watch (versus its usual two or three) during the quarter. The new low-end AirPods and hearing features for the AirPods Pro are quite compelling technology-wise, but clearly not commercially enough to grow the overall category.

    Here is the full revenue breakdown by product:

    But if soft iPhone sales news was bad, the devastation that is China sales was catastrophic: contrary to expectations for a modest rebound, China sales declined for a sixth consecutive quarter, down a whopping 11.1%, and printing at only $18.5BN in what is supposed to be the strongest quarter, below the $21.6BN estimate. The rest of the world saw growth, modest in the Americas at 3.9%, and stronger in Europe and APAC, both double digits.

    Greater China continues to be a very weak spot for Apple and the company hasn’t done much to push new products, pricing and initiatives in that market — or other emerging areas — to offset the issues.

    The weakness there, which Apple will try to explain away in its conference call, is because of a combination of nationalism and interest in local products, whose designs are getting better. The local players are also trying new things like foldables while Apple continues to use the same design it rolled out five years ago.

    The result: revenues declining now for an unprecedented 5 quarters!

    There was a slight silver lining in the company’s Service revenue, which after missing last quarter, come in stronger than expected, rising to a new record $26.34 billion, 14% YoY and above the $26.1 billion expected. The question is what will happen once this last saving grace flatlines or, worse, starts contracting.

    In the press release, CEO Tim Cook tried hard to stay positive, calling it the company’s “best quarter ever.”

    “Today Apple is reporting our best quarter ever, with revenue of $124.3 billion, up 4 percent from a year ago. We were thrilled to bring customers our best-ever lineup of products and services during the holiday season. Through the power of Apple silicon, we’re unlocking new possibilities for our users with Apple Intelligence, which makes apps and experiences even better and more personal. And we’re excited that Apple Intelligence will be available in even more languages this April.”

    And while Cook said the iPhone reached an all-time revenue record in dozens of markets and regions, the reality is that, sales declined and missed Wall Street expectations.

    New CFO Kevan Parekh also got his first quote:

    “Our record revenue and strong operating margins drove EPS to a new all-time record with double-digit growth and allowed us to return over $30 billion to shareholders. We are also pleased that our installed base of active devices has reached a new all-time high across all products and geographic segments.”

    Elsewhere, Apple’s board of directors declared a cash dividend of $0.25 per share of the Company’s common stock. Translation: no $50 billion stock buyback announcement this quarter. .

    Yet despite management’s valiant attempt to put lipstick on this particular pig, investors would have none of it and after an early headfake after hours which briefly sent the stock as high as $245, AAPL is now at session lows, dropping to $234 and falling.

     

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/30/2025 – 17:00

  • Trump Targets DEI Hiring Practices After Deadly Crash Near Reagan National Airport
    Trump Targets DEI Hiring Practices After Deadly Crash Near Reagan National Airport

    President Donald Trump on Jan. 30 alleged that the midair crash that killed 67 people near Ronald Reagan National Airport was influenced by the Biden administration’s diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) hiring practices at the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).

    “I put safety first. Obama, Biden and the Democrats put policy first…” Trump said.

    The accident – the deadliest U.S. plane crash since November 2001 – occurred at around 9 p.m. on Jan. 29.

    Trump accused former President Joe Biden of weakening hiring standards for air traffic controllers, alleging that the Transportation Department led by former Secretary Pete Buttigieg prioritized hiring “[controllers] with severe disabilities.”

    “They put a big push to put diversity into the FAA program,” Trump alleged.

    “The FAA is actively recruiting workers who suffer severe intellectual disabilities, psychiatric problems, and other mental and physical conditions under a diversity and inclusion hiring initiative spelled out on the agency’s website.”

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    Buttigieg responded to Trump’s allegations in a post on X.

    “Despicable. As families grieve, Trump should be leading, not lying,” he said.

    “We put safety first, drove down close calls, grew Air Traffic Control, and had zero commercial airline crash fatalities out of millions of flights on our watch.”

    The former transportation secretary pointed out that the Trump administration now leads both the military and the FAA.

    “One of [Trump’s] first acts was to fire and suspend some of the key personnel who helped keep our skies safe. Time for the president to show actual leadership and explain what he will do to prevent this from happening again,” Buttigieg said.

    As Jacob Burg reports for The Epoch Times, during the previous administration, the FAA had a “Diversity and Inclusion” webpage that said:

    “Diversity is integral to achieving the FAA’s mission of ensuring safe and efficient travel across our nation and beyond.”

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    The agency’s “Aviation Safety Workforce Plan” described its policy of “attracting and hiring talented applicants from diverse backgrounds,” with a commitment to diversity and inclusion to create a “workforce with the leadership, technical, and functional skills necessary to ensure the United States has the world’s safest and most productive aviation sector.”

    In February 2024, a group of 11 Republican attorneys general wrote a letter to the FAA accusing the Obama administration of seeking out applicants with “severe intellectual” and “psychiatric” disabilities.

    However, the FAA’s “Diversity and Inclusion” webpage was established in February 2013 and stayed active throughout the entire first Trump administration. It was not spearheaded or developed by Biden or Buttigieg.

    Trump: No Confirmation Controllers Were to Blame

    In April 2024, the FAA declined to comment on the “diversity hiring” allegations but said its top priority is to hire “highly qualified air traffic controllers” in a statement to The Epoch Times.

    “Every FAA-certified air traffic controller has gone through months of screening and training at the FAA Academy, and that is before another 18-24 months of training to learn specific regions and airspace,” an agency spokesperson said.

    The FAA did not respond to a request for comment on Trump’s Jan. 30 allegations.

    Trump later said that it might not have been the fault of air traffic controllers or the FAA’s hiring practices, “We don’t know that necessarily.”

    Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said in a morning briefing that the helicopter pilots were wearing night vision goggles at some point during their flight.

    Trump said night vision could have affected the pilots’ view of the incoming American Airlines jet.

    “That would be, maybe, a reason why you wouldn’t actually see as well as on a clear night,” he told reporters at the White House press briefing.

    Juan Browne, a pilot for one of the major U.S. airlines, told The Epoch Times that night vision goggles could have completely obscured the airplane’s landing lights if the helicopter pilots were wearing them at the time of the collision.

    He said it was potentially a “huge contributing factor.”

    Not only would night vision pose issues with Washington’s city lights below, but also with the airplane’s landing lights, which would have been blinding for the helicopter pilots wearing the night vision goggles, Browne added.

    Trump said the helicopter should not have been at the same altitude as the commercial jet. The crash occurred at around 400 feet above the ground.

    “The people and the helicopter should have seen where they were going. I can’t imagine people with 20–20 vision not seeing what’s happening up there,” he said.

    “They shouldn’t have been at the same height.”

    Military helicopters have an “above ground level” (AGL), which is the maximum altitude the aircraft can operate at in specific airspace.

    The Transportation Department and FAA did not respond to requests for comment on whether the military helicopter was operating within an authorized altitude. The Pentagon referred that question back to the FAA.

    The National Transportation Safety Board has yet to release any official causes for the accident.

    Trump said all 64 people on board the American Airlines flight died in the collision. The military officers on the helicopter, who have not yet been named publicly, also perished.

    The president will be releasing a list of the victims’ names soon, “in coordination with American Airlines” and the military.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/30/2025 – 16:40

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  • Is Trump Positioning For A "No-Deal" With Russia?
    Is Trump Positioning For A “No-Deal” With Russia?

    Authored by Alastair Crooke,

    Trump’s rhetoric about Russia having lost 1 million men in the Ukraine conflict is not just nonsense (the real number not even reaching 100,000), but his resort to it underlines that the usual meme of Trump being just woefully misinformed is looking less and less plausible.

    After touting the 1 million Russian deaths, Trump then suggests that Putin is destroying Russia by not making a deal. Adding (seemingly as an aside), that Putin may have already made up his mind ‘not to make a deal’.

    Instead, in a curiously disinterested way, Trump remarks that negotiations would depend entirely on whether Putin is interested or not. He further claims that Russia’s economy is in ruins, and most notably says that he would consider sanctioning or tariffing Russia, if Putin does not make a deal. In a subsequent Truth Social post, Trump writes, “I’m going to do Russia, whose Economy is failing, and President Putin, a very big FAVOR”.

    This – plainly said – is a narrative of an entirely different order: No longer is it his Envoy Kellogg or another team member saying it; it is Trump’s own words as President. Trump answers a journalist’s question ‘Would [he] sanction Russia’ should Putin not come to the negotiating table? To which he responds, “that sounds likely”.

    What, we might ask, is Trump’s strategy? It seems more as though it is Trump that is preparing for a ‘no deal’. He must be aware that Putin repeatedly has made plain that he is both interested and open to talks with Trump. There is no doubt about that.

    Yet Trump subsequently contradicts the ‘loser discourse’ in yet another apparent after-thought: “I mean … it’s a big machine so, eventually things will happen …”.

    Here he appears to be saying that the Russian ‘big machine’ ultimately will win. Russia will be a winner – and not a loser.

    Maybe Trump is thinking simply to let the dynamics of the military ‘trial of strength’ play out. (If that is his thinking, he cannot utter such sentiment out loud – explicitly – as the Euro-élites would sink even further into a pathological tailspin).

    Alternatively, were Trump to be seriously seeking productive negotiations with Putin, it is certainly not a good way to start by being deeply disrespectful towards the Russian people – depicting them and President Putin as ‘losers’ who desperately need a deal; whereas the reality was that it was Trump who earlier had touted getting a deal within 24 hours. His disrespect will rankle – not just with Putin – but for most Russians.

    The ‘loser narrative’ simply will stiffen Russian opposition to a Ukraine compromise.

    The backdrop is that Russia in any case collectively eschews the idea of any compromise that “boils down to freezing the conflict along the line of engagement: that will give time to rearm the remnants of the Ukrainian army, and then start a new round of hostilities. So, that we have to fight again, but this time from less advantageous political positions”, as Professor Sergei Karaganov has noted.

    Moreover, “the Trump administration has no reason to negotiate with us on the terms we [Russia] have set. The war is economically beneficial to the U.S. … and [possibly] also to removing Russia as the powerful strategic support of America’s main competitor ? China”.

    Professor Dmitri Trenin similarly predicts that,

    “Trump’s bid to secure a ceasefire along Ukraine’s battle lines will fail. The American plan ignores Russia’s security concerns and disregards the root causes of the conflict. Meanwhile, Moscow’s conditions will remain unacceptable to Washington, as they would effectively mean Kiev’s capitulation and the West’s strategic defeat. In response Trump will impose additional sanctions on Moscow. Despite strong anti-Russian rhetoric, U.S. aid to Ukraine will decrease, shifting much of the burden onto Western European nations”.

    So why cast Russia as contemptible ‘losers’, unless this forms Trump’s strategy for walking away from the Ukraine issue? If a clear-cut U.S. ‘victory narrative’ seems beyond reach, then why not invert the narrative?‘Mission accomplished’ being obstructed solely by Russia’s ‘loser streak’.

    This inevitably leads to the question of what is the meaning – exactly – of the return of America’s “most famous criminal defendant to the White House”, and his promise of a “revolution of common sense”?

    “There is no doubt that it is revolutionary”, Matt Taibbi argues:

    “Trump galvanized [income mal-distribution] resentment, creating a political Sherman’s march that left institutional America smouldering. The corporate press is dead. The Democratic Party is in schism. Academia is about to swallow a giant bottle of bitter pills, and after the executive orders signed Monday: a lot of DEI instructors will have to learn to code” [i.e., will be unemployed].

    Yes, Taibbi observes,

    “it makes me nervous to see a murderer’s row of censorious CEOs (particularly Bezos, Pinchai, and the repulsive Cook) sitting in front of Trump, together with other Wall Street luminaries … nonetheless, if the deal was support for Trump in exchange for platforms going back to being merely self-interested profit-gobblers, I’ll take it over the previous cabal. The Wall Street Journal was probably closest to capturing the essence of that idea of the event with yesterday’s header, “The New Oligarchy is a Vast Improvement on the Old””.

    Yet to many Russians, however, the impression left by Trump’s ‘loser’ discourse is that ‘nothing changes’ – the idea of inflicting ‘strategic defeats’ on Russia has been a cornerstone of U.S. policy for so long a time that it transcends party lines and is implemented regardless of which administration occupies the White House.

    And today, a new impetus is apparent – as Nikolai Patrushev warns, Moscow expects Washington artificially to foment friction between Russia and China.

    Steve Bannon however, in his usual florid language, goes some way to explain the conundrum of a revolutionary Trump and his disappointing ‘loser discourse’.

    Bannon warns that Ukraine risks becoming ‘Trump’s Vietnam’, should Trump fail to make a ‘clean break’, and allow himself to be sucked deeper into the Ukraine war.

    “That’s what happened to Richard Nixon. He ended up owning the war and it went down as his war – not Lyndon Johnson’s”, Bannon noted.

    Bannon “advocates ending America’s all-important military aid to Kyiv, but fears his old boss is going to fall into a trap being set by an unlikely alliance of the U.S. defence industry, the Europeans and even some of Bannon’s own friends, whom he argues are now misguided”.

    Bannon’s underpinning premise was made clear during his Zoom call with Alex Krainer. He confirmed that Trump and his team will go on the offensive from day one in office: “The days of thunder begin on Monday”. Bannon wasn’t talking about Trump going on the offensive against the Chinese, Iranians or the Russians, however. Trump and his team are preparing to take on the “they””.

    “They”, in Bannon’s words, “are the people who control the world’s most powerful empire and, elections or no elections, democracy or no democracy, they will not voluntarily relinquish their privileges and the control: there will be a fight”.

    Yes, the ‘real war’ is the domestic one — not that against Russia, China or Iran, which could become diversions from the main battle.

    For comparative purposes, were Trump’s aim truly to agree a negotiated Ukraine ‘compromise’, we need to contrast his rhetorical blatant ‘loser’ jibe with that of John F. Kennedy’s attempt, 59 years ago, to break the cycle of mutual antipathy that had frozen relations between East and West since 1945. Stung by the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, Kennedy wanted to break an ossified paradigm. Kennedy – like Trump – sought to ‘End Wars’; to be recorded in history as a ‘peace-maker’.

    In a speech at the American University in Washington on 10 June, 1963, JFK praised the Russians. He spoke of their achievements in science, the arts and industry; he saluted their sacrifices in the Second World War where they lost 25 million people, one-third of their territory and two-thirds of their economy.

    It was no exercise in empty rhetoric.

    Kennedy proposed the Limited Nuclear Test Ban Treaty – the first of the arms-control agreements of the 1960s and 1970s.

    Well, there may be inklings of a Bannon-inspired tentative ‘clean break’ beginning – as Larry Johnson notes:

    “The Pentagon reportedly has fired or suspended all personnel directly responsible for managing military assistance to Ukraine. They will all face an investigation into the use of U.S. budget money.

    “Laura Cooper, the Pentagon’s Deputy Assistant Secretary for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia, has already resigned, marking the beginning of what some see as a strategic pivot. Cooper was a key figure in overseeing $126 billion in military aid to Ukraine. Her departure, coupled with what appears to be a housecleaning of Pentagon staff tied to Kiev’s war effort, casts doubt on whether Ukraine will continue to enjoy the open spigot of U.S. weapons and funding it received under Biden.

    “The restructuring also casts a shadow over the Ukraine Defence Contact Group, which under Lloyd Austin had expanded into a 50-nation coalition supporting Kiev”.

    The U.S. has reportedly withdrawn all applications to contractors for logistics through Rzeszow, Constanta and Varna. At NATO bases in Europe, all shipments to Ukraine have been suspended and closed. This falls under Trump’s Executive Order halting global U.S. assistance for 90 days – pending an audit and cost-benefit analysis.

    Meanwhile, Moscow and China are duly preparing against the prospect of diplomatic re-engagement with the now President Trump. Xi and Putin held a 95 minute video call a few hours after Trump’s impromptu news conference in the Oval Office – Xi gave Putin the details of his conversation with Trump (which was not timed to coincide with Trump’s inauguration, but rather had been scheduled in December).

    Both leaders appear to be sending a common message to Trump — i.e., the alliance between China and Russia is not ephemeral. They are united in common cause to work jointly to assert their respective national interests. They are willing to talk to Trump and engage in serious negotiations. Yet, they refuse to be bullied or threatened.

    Nikolai Patrushev, Adviser to Putin and member of Russia’s Security Council, gave the Russian context to this video call between the two leaders:

    “For the Biden administration, Ukraine was an unconditional priority. It is clear, [Patrushev says], that the relationship between Trump and Biden is antagonistic. Therefore, Ukraine will not be among Trump’s priorities. He cares more about China”.

    Pointedly, Patrushev warned:

    “I think Washington’s disagreements with Beijing will worsen, and the Americans will inflate them, including artificially. For us, China has been and remains the most important partner with whom we are connected by relations of privileged strategic cooperation”.

    “As for the Russian line in relation to Ukraine, it remains unchanged. It is important for us that the tasks of the Special Operation are solved. They are known and have not changed. I believe that negotiations on Ukraine should be conducted between Russia and the United States without the participation of other Western countries”.

    “I want to emphasize once again that the Ukrainian people remain close to us: brotherly and bound by centuries-old ties with Russia, no matter how much Kiev propagandists obsess with ‘Ukrainianness’ claim to the contrary. We care about what is happening in Ukraine. It is especially disturbing [therefore] that violent coercion to neo-Nazi ideology and ardent Russophobia destroy the once prosperous cities of Ukraine, including Kharkiv, Odessa, Nikolaev, Dnipropetrovsk”.

    “It is possible that in the coming year Ukraine will cease to exist altogether”.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/29/2025 – 23:25

  • These Are The Best US Cities To Flip Houses In 2025
    These Are The Best US Cities To Flip Houses In 2025

    For those looking to flip houses in the upcoming year, a recent ViewHomes Team study analyzed U.S. cities based on prices, demand, market activity, and inventory to guide investors.

    House flipping continues to be a profitable venture, but location remains the key to success. A recent study identified the top U.S. cities for investors looking to maximize returns in 2025, balancing affordability, demand, and market stability.

    New York City takes the top spot despite its high median listing price of $762,375. The city’s relentless demand, with over 35,000 active listings and 408 price increases, ensures a steady stream of buyers eager for renovated homes.

    Similarly, Houston, Texas, offers strong opportunities with over 27,000 active listings and a median price of $369,450. The city’s steady price trends and high pending listings indicate a consistent demand for flipped properties.

    For those seeking a more affordable entry into house flipping, Clarksdale, Mississippi, presents a compelling option, the recent study by ViewHomes Team revealed. With a median listing price of just $149,500, it offers budget-conscious investors a chance to profit from a growing market.

    Meanwhile, Rochester, New York, provides a stable and predictable environment for flippers, boasting a median price of $277,450, over 1,000 active listings, and slight but steady price growth.

    Arlington, Virginia, stands out for its fast turnaround time, with homes spending a median of just 34 days on the market. With a median listing price of $599,781 and over 10,600 active listings, flippers can expect quick sales and solid returns. Atlanta, Georgia, continues to attract investors with its blend of affordability and strong buyer interest. Though the median listing price is $410,000, the city maintains steady demand, as reflected in its 8,626 pending listings.

    Hobbs, New Mexico, is an emerging market with relatively low competition but strong demand. With only 92 active listings and a median price of $281,125, the city’s increasing price per square foot makes it a promising option for flippers looking for a less crowded market.

    Meanwhile, Miami, Florida, remains a competitive but profitable market with over 41,500 active listings and one of the highest price-per-square-foot rates ($370). Despite a slight price decline, its median listing price of $525,000 and continued buyer demand make it a hotspot for investors.

    The study revealed that Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, offers a balanced mix of affordability and opportunity, with a median listing price of $376,500 and over 10,800 active listings. The city’s steady growth and strong pending ratio (0.75%) indicate consistent buyer interest.

    Lastly, Chicago, Illinois, rounds out the top markets with 17,400 active listings and a median price of $369,000. With a stable market and strong buyer engagement, Chicago presents opportunities for investors at all experience levels.

    These cities provide a diverse range of flipping opportunities, from high-end urban markets to affordable, emerging areas. Whether seeking quick turnarounds or long-term stability, house flippers in 2025 have promising options to explore.

    “These findings highlight the crucial role location plays in the success of house flipping. While renovating a property is important, the ultimate profitability hinges on finding the right market, one with strong demand, quick turnover, and a pool of eager buyers,” said Liam Cope, a real estate broker from ViewHomes Team.

    “New York City, with its high demand and strong buyer interest, clearly stands out as a prime location for investors. However, what’s really exciting is the variety of cities that offer great opportunities. From affordable options like Clarksdale, Mississippi, to bustling markets like Miami and Chicago, house flippers now have a wide range of choices depending on their investment strategy and budget,” he continued.

    “Whether you’re looking for a competitive, high-demand market or a smaller, more affordable one with growth potential, these cities provide ample opportunities to maximize your return on investment. It’s clear that the market is evolving, and for investors willing to do their research and think strategically, the rewards are there for the taking.”

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/29/2025 – 23:00

  • Lithium-Ion Batteries, Melted EVs Create New Hazards In SoCal Fire Zones
    Lithium-Ion Batteries, Melted EVs Create New Hazards In SoCal Fire Zones

    Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    This month’s deadly and destructive Los Angeles fires that claimed 28 lives burned with such intensity that electric vehicles and lithium-ion batteries melted to the ground, creating hazardous conditions as residents began returning to their communities Jan. 28.

    The devastation of the Palisades Fire is seen at sunset in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles on Jan. 14. Ethan Swope/AP Photo

    Specialists with the federal Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) were leading the large-scale cleanup of the batteries Tuesday.

    The Palisades Fire burned more than 36 square miles and tore through neighborhoods full of electric vehicles and solar panels after years of state-sponsored green-energy policies.

    The size of the Palisades fire and number of lithium-ion batteries left behind make it one of the largest hazardous-materials cleanups that local first responders have seen, according to Los Angeles Fire Department spokesman Adam VanGerpen.

    “We’ve never seen it on this scale,” VanGerpen told The Epoch Times. “We are talking a very large scale.”

    Lithium-ion batteries are used in cellphones, tablets, laptops, wireless headphones, electric cars, and solar panel storage.

    Many of the batteries and electric vehicles melted after they were abandoned by fleeing residents starting Jan. 7, VanGerpen said.

    “We have to remove the entire vehicle,” he added.

    Actor and Pacific Palisades homeowner James Woods said in a post on social media platform X Monday that the melted electric cars were “creating a real problem for safe debris removal.”

    “While I am grateful to have President Trump in charge of the federal assistance so desperately needed, we can’t ignore that the electric cars have literally melted into the earth where they stood,” Woods wrote.

    LAFD hazmat crews have surveyed the fire zone, searching through 6,837 destroyed homes and buildings, and 12,317 others that were damaged, according to numbers issued Tuesday by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal Fire).

    The teams used software to locate and flag the zone’s lithium-ion batteries, according to VanGerpen.

    Cars and homes destroyed by the Eaton Fire in Altadena, Calif., on Jan. 9. Zoë Meyers/AFP via Getty Images

    Some batteries appear intact and untouched but could still produce toxic gases, reignite, or explode, making them the first priority for cleanup crews, he said.

    All new homes built in California since Jan. 1, 2020, are required to have solar panels, which also require the installation of lithium-ion batteries.

    Pacific Palisades Charter High School, which was destroyed in the fire, was in the process of adding solar panels to its buildings before the disaster.

    Local officials lifted the last of the evacuation orders Monday, allowing residents back into the Palisades and Eaton fire zones. Most areas are open only for residents, who are allowed to return during non-curfew hours between 6 a.m. and 6 p.m. after getting an entry pass.

    On Jan. 12, Gov. Gavin Newsom issued an executive order to direct fast debris removal in the fire zones. He reiterated his push to speed up the recovery during a news conference Tuesday.

    California joined with the Federal Emergency Management Agency to send a letter Monday to the EPA telling the agency they needed debris removed within the next 30 days, according to Newsom.

    Nearly 2,000 California National Guard troops were still assigned to the fire zones to help with removing debris. “We will do whatever it takes to provide that support for the EPA,” Newsom said.

    The EPA received Newsom’s letter and started cleaning hazardous debris Monday, according to spokeswoman Anna Drabek.

    The agency has set up a hazardous debris collection site in each of the Palisades and Eaton fire zones.

    “We’ve been preparing [the sites] to start receiving the materials, which started yesterday in both locations,” Drabek told The Epoch Times.

    Many homes have damaged or destroyed lithium-ion batteries, battery energy storage systems, and electric or hybrid vehicles, she said.

    The batteries should be considered “extremely dangerous, even if they look intact,” according the agency’s news release Tuesday.

    The agency can’t tell residents not to return to their property, even if toxic or hazardous debris still exists, but is encouraging residents to be cautious about the danger, she added.

    “We just want folks to be aware of the risks they may be taking,” Drabek said.

    The EPA encouraged residents to exercise extreme caution when returning to their properties and call their hotline at 1-833-798-7372 if they encounter a lithium-ion battery.

    The agency was given $175 million for debris removal and a 60-day timeline to remove toxic and hazardous waste, according to Newsom.

    The EPA plans to create a lithium-ion battery de-energizing and staging area, similar to what was created after the 2023 Maui wildfire.

    A basketball is stuck in the net outside a home destroyed by the Palisades Fire in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles on Jan. 24. Damian Dovarganes/AP Photo

    “As part of the hazardous material removal work, U.S. EPA has also been tasked to safely remove batteries from electric and hybrid vehicles and home backup power supplies,” the agency wrote on a page dedicated to the L.A. fires.

    The EPA is working with California’s Department of Toxic Substances Control to develop a full inventory of properties that need hazardous material removal.

    Other hazardous materials burned in the blaze include paints, cleaners, solvents, oils, herbicides, and pesticides, according to the EPA. Pressurized fuel cylinders, like propane tanks, could also pose a threat and will be removed by cleanup crews, the agency said.

    Once these materials have been cleared on a property, the EPA will place a sign on the site indicating it is safe to enter.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/29/2025 – 22:35

  • Watch: Unhinged Liz Warren Badgers RFK Jr. During Wild Confirmation Hearing
    Watch: Unhinged Liz Warren Badgers RFK Jr. During Wild Confirmation Hearing

    Update (1355 ET): Democrats were completely unhinged over the prospect of RFK Jr.’s ascent to the head of HHS during his confirmation hearing today – with Senator Liz Warren (D-MA) throwing tomahawks like a Super Mario Brothers Hammer Bro.

    Warren badgered Kennedy over whether he would commit to not making money as HHS secretary amid ongoing lawsuits against vaccine makers.

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    “No one should be fooled here. As secretary of HHS, Robert Kennedy will have the power to undercut vaccines and vaccine manufacturing across our country,” Warren concluded, after rattling off a list of ways in which he could influence his own lawsuits as head of HHS. “Kennedy can kill off access to vaccines and make millions of dollars while he does it. Kids might die but Robert Kennedy can keep cashing in,” she continued.

    To which Kennedy replied: “I support vaccines,” and accused her of asking him not to sue drug companies.

    Oh…

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    Warren asked Kennedy not to take any compensation from lawsuits against drug companies while he’s secretary, and for a period of four years afterward – to which Kennedy agreed. 

    “You’re making me sound like a shill,” Kennedy told warren after she brought up his legal work against drugmakers.

    “You’re asking me to not sue drug companies and I’m not going to agree to that, senator,” Kennedy continued, as supporters in the room cheered.

    Warren replied that he could sue drug companies “as much as he wants.”

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    Watch: 

    Meanwhile…

    Robert F Kennedy Jr., the man who could upend the incestuous relationship between big pharma and big government as head of Donald Trump’s Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), will appear today at 10AM ET for a confirmation hearing before the Senate Committee on Finance, which oversees HHS.

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is President Donald Trump’s nominee for secretary of Health and Human Services. (Jon Cherry/Getty Images)

    Then on Thursday, Jan. 30, Kennedy – a former Democrat and independent presidential candidate – will attend a forum hosted by the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions.

    After he passes through both gauntlets, the Senate Finance Committee will vote on whether to advance him to a full Senate floor vote, where he must get a simple majority to gain confirmation. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the chamber.

    And of course, Wyden starts out by lying:

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    According to Fox News, Kennedy will emphasize that he’s not “anti-vaccine,” and plans to say in his opening statement:

    “I want to make sure the Committee is clear about a few things. News reports have claimed that I am anti-vaccine or anti-industry. Well, I am neither; I am pro-safety.“

    If confirmed, Kennedy would have control over 18 powerful federal agencies, including the CDC, the FDA, the NIH, and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

    Kennedy is also expected to emphasize that he’s not “the enemy of food producers. American farms are the bedrock of our culture and national security … I want to work with our farmers and food producers to remove burdensome regulations and unleash American ingenuity.”

    Kennedy has served as the chair / chief legal counsel for Children’s Health Defense – a nonprofit organization he founded that advocates against unsafe vaccinations. Through CHD, Kennedy has sued the federal government numerous times – including a challenge over the authorization to administer the COVID vaccine for children.

    Given the threat RFK Jr. poses to the aforementioned special interests, it’s no surprise they’ve been coming after him tooth and nail.

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    (Click into the tweet for the rest of the thread)

    “There are a series of industries that actually make money from keeping us sick,” Kennedy told Dr. Phil last year, which the host re-shared this week (per The Federalist). “You would think they want us healthy but they actually make more money if we get sicker. And of course, with the pharmaceutical companies, if you have a chronic illness then you’re a lifetime patient.”

    As The Federalist notes further:

    Kennedy said the diabetes drug Ozempic in particular is being relied on to induce weight loss for a nation where more than two-thirds are overweight and 40 percent are obese. In November, the Biden administration proposed an 11th-hour rule to cover the medication under federal insurance programs. If confirmed as HHS secretary, Kennedy would decide whether to approve the $35 billion handout for drug manufacturers or terminate the proposal. Kennedy, however, has been a consistent critic of the medications now recommended by the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) for obese children as young as 12.

    “A sick child,” Kennedy said in his August endorsement speech of Trump, “is the best thing for the pharmaceutical industry. When American children or adults are sick with a chronic condition, they’re put on medication for their entire life.”

    Kennedy’s persistent antagonism of the pharmaceutical giants led to a shock in their stocks upon his nomination to lead the nearly $2 trillion agency in charge of regulating the drug industry. HHS holds jurisdiction over the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), making HHS a primary recruitment ground for the industry’s revolving door of influence, which Kennedy has pledged to eliminate.

    The outlet further points out that during today’s hearing, Kennedy will face questions from lawmakers on the Senate Finance Committee who have received roughly $7 million from drug companies between 2019 and 2024, according to a Federalist analysis of donations compiled by OpenSecrets.

    Members of the Senate Health Committee, who will question Kennedy Thursday, have received more than $5.6 million in contributions from the pharmaceutical industry, or nearly $4.4 million around a similar timespan once excluding Sens. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., Bill Cassidy, R-La., and Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn, who also serve on the Finance Committee. -The Federalist

    Click here to read more about lawmakers who take money from big pharma…

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    Even Kennedy’s cousin came out against him, donning those little round rim glasses authoritarians seems to love.

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    That said, his former running mate, billionaire Nicole Shanahan, has his back – and has vowed to fund primary challenges to 13 US Senators who refuse to support Kennedy’s confirmation.

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    Stay tuned for updates…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/29/2025 – 22:21

  • Black Hawk Helicopter Collides With Commercial Jet Near Reagan National Airport, Explosion Caught On Camera
    Black Hawk Helicopter Collides With Commercial Jet Near Reagan National Airport, Explosion Caught On Camera

    A mid-air collision between an Army Black Hawk helicopter and a regional jet near Reagan International Airport in DC was caught on camera from the Kennedy Center Wednesday night, prompting a massive response from fire, EMS, and police.

    According to Fox‘s Chad Pergram, the jet was a PSA Airlines Bombadier CRJ700 regional jet which was on approach to runway 33 at Reagan Airport. It was reportedly carrying 64 individuals, including four crew members. There is no information at this time on casualties, however four individuals have reportedly been rescued and have been transported to the North Boathouse Fire Station at the airport.

    That said…

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    There were three individuals on the Black Hawk which was operating out of Fort Belvoir in Virginia, according to the Army. None of those aboard were senior Army officials, according to the NYT.

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    According to local police, “DC Fire and EMS, the Metropolitan Police Department and multiple partner agencies are currently coordinating a search and rescue operation in the Potomac River.”

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    Any survivors in the water could be at risk, according to the NY Times, as temperatures are expected to drop below freezing in the Washington area tonight. According to the National Weather Service, hypothermia can kick in within 20-30 minutes in cold water.

    According to Flightradar24, the Black Hawk helicopter was not broadcasting its ADS-B data at the time of the crash.

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    White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told Fox News that President Trump is aware of the situation, adding that it “tragically appears a military helicopter collided with a regional jet.”

    “May God Bless their souls,” Trump said in a statement.

    In response to the incident, nearby Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport halted all takeoffs and landings as emergency personnel responded do an “aircraft incident on the airfield.”

    Emergency service vehicles near the site of the crash in the vicinity of Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport on Wednesday.Credit…Carlos Barria/Reuters

    DC Fire and Emergency Medical Services posted to X shortly after 9 p.m. that a small aircraft was down in the Potomac River near the airport, and that boats managed by the fire department were on the scene.

    According to an account from someone who claims to have listened to air traffic control audio (so very unconfirmed):

    Just listened thru 20 mins of ATC recording Helo called out to ATC that he could see a jet on approach ATC asked for heading and altitude Helo called back with heading and altitude ATC called out >maintain visual separation ATC called out to American Jet and confirmed they were on final American jet said yes on final at xxx altitude xxx knots ATC called out maintain final Helo called out he could see airliner, confirm maintain ATC called out >maintain heading Then literally 5 seconds later ATC calls out >American 472 cancel landing clearance for runway 1c it was at that moment…. ATC realized he fuck’t up the call out “maintain visual separation” basically tells the pilots to watch out for themselves and make sure you dont run into each other, its a way to release liability from the ATC for separation distance. It leaves it up to the pilots. However ATC then told them both to maintain heading

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    Listen here (starts at 17:30 – 18:04).

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    In a post to X, Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) said he had seen reports of a collision with a DC helicopter and a flight that was inbound from Wichita, Kansas.

    “We are in contact with authorities working to get answers,” Marshall wrote. “We ask you to join us in prayer for every single passenger and their families.”

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    Developing…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/29/2025 – 22:11

  • "Hope For The Future": Newly Discovered 'Super Earth' Could Reveal Existence Of Extraterrestrials
    “Hope For The Future”: Newly Discovered ‘Super Earth’ Could Reveal Existence Of Extraterrestrials

    Despite over 7,000 exoplanets being discovered, the search for extraterrestrial life continues.

    But now, a nearby “super Earth”, located about 20 light years away could be that home to extraterrestrial beings, according a new report from the NY Post, citing Astronomy & Astrophysics. 

    Dr. Michael Cretignier, scientist with Oxford University, commented: “I’m now very enthusiastic to hear what other scientists can tell us about this newly discovered planet.”

    “Excitingly, its proximity with us – only 20 light-years – means there is hope for future space missions to obtain an image of it,” he continued.

    UK researchers confirmed the “super-Earth” and an international team analyzed two decades of precise data from Chile’s HARPS and ESPRESSO spectrographs, verifying the object as an exoplanet.

    Scientists are intrigued by HD 20794 d – it is six times Earth’s size and it orbits in a habitable zone where liquid water could exist. It circles a sun-like G-star in 647 days, slightly less than Mars’ orbit.

    “It is among the closest Earth analogues we know about and given its peculiar orbit,” Cretignier added. 

    The NY Post report said that HD 20794 d follows an eccentric orbit, drifting in and out of the habitable zone, causing any water to freeze or melt depending on its position. This unique trait helps scientists refine models of planetary habitability.

    At just 19.7 light-years away, its proximity makes it easier to study, with strong light signals ideal for future telescopes analyzing exoplanet atmospheres.

    Despite its location in the habitable zone, whether it can support life remains uncertain. Scientists still need to determine if it has an atmosphere or surface water.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/29/2025 – 22:10

  • Stolen Valor Bills Seek Harsher Penalties For Falsified Military Service
    Stolen Valor Bills Seek Harsher Penalties For Falsified Military Service

    Authored by Allan Stein via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    PHOENIX—Of all the schemes and scams that U.S. Air Force veteran Bob Dalpe is aware of, stolen valor stands out as one of the most reprehensible.

    Stolen valor is defined as when a person falsely claims to have served in the military, pretends to have made sacrifices in combat, and may even wear a fake uniform adorned with counterfeit medals.

    A Purple Heart medal is displayed during a Purple Heart ceremony at George Washington’s Mount Vernon in Mount Vernon, Va., on June 9, 2015. Alex Wong/Getty Images

    Dalpe said some veterans also misrepresent their rank and service to obtain additional benefits and recognition.

    “It’s very frustrating to deal with them because you know their integrity is in question,” he said. “It hurts everybody around you. It devalues their service.”

    Dalpe and other veterans attended a press conference in Phoenix recently for the official unveiling of a bill that would penalize anyone found guilty of stolen valor in Arizona.

    The bill applies to anyone who uses stolen valor to gain benefits intended for veterans, falsifies related documents, or falsely claims to be a veteran when running for office or in business transactions.

    Arizona’s proposed legislation builds on the federal Stolen Valor Act of 2013, making stealing valor a felony crime while implementing stricter enforcement and penalties, according to Arizona state Rep. Walter Blackman, the bill’s primary sponsor.

    “It embodies the values that we hold dear as veterans. We need to send a strong message to people that want to steal our valor,” Blackman, a Republican, said during the conference.

    Blackman said stolen valor isn’t a new phenomenon, but its impact runs deep and it diminishes the value of military service.

    “We’ve had a number of stolen valor cases in this state that caused Arizona upwards to $40 million … through veterans benefits, contracts, job placement, and so on,” said Blackman.

    “This is a push to hold those people accountable. If they have to go to jail because of it, they will go to jail,” he said.

    Stolen valor is “essentially a lie,” according to the Armed Forces Benefit Association (AFBA).

    While it is not technically illegal to make things up to impress friends at a party, the AFBA clarifies that “stolen valor is more complicated than that, which is why it is considered a crime.”

    Arizona Rep. Walter Blackman addresses the media about the bill he’s sponsoring that would make faking military service for material gain a crime in the state, in Phoenix on Jan. 15, 2025. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times

    Military impersonation is a similar offense, committed willfully and wrongfully, with or without the intent to defraud, the organization states on its website.

    Several states already have laws that penalize stolen valor.

    For example, the California Stolen Valor Act makes it a misdemeanor for a person to falsely claim to be a veteran or a former member of any branch of the military.

    It includes anyone who pretends to be a veteran, whether through verbal statements or written claims, as well as those who wear military decorations to deceive others.

    In Florida, soliciting charitable contributions or other benefits while falsely claiming to be a veteran is a felony.

    Under the New Jersey Stolen Valor Act, it is a crime for someone to falsely claim they have received a military decoration or medal.

    In July 2024, Rep. Beth Van Duyne (R-Texas) reintroduced the Valor Earned Not Stolen Act, after the original bill failed in 2021.

    The legislation seeks to increase the maximum penalty for stolen valor from one year to three years in prison, aligning it with the penalty for impersonating a public official.

    Additionally, the bill requires a study and report by the U.S. attorney general and the Inspector General of Veterans Affairs.

    This report will identify any financial or government benefits received due to the falsification of military decorations or medals.

    It will also provide recommendations on how to prevent stolen valor in the future.

    “The recognition and honors our veterans have earned are hallowed and, unfortunately, there have been too many instances of stolen valor resulting in stolen government benefits,” Van Duyne said in a statement.

    A military aide holds the Medal of Honor during a presentation ceremony in the East Room of the White House on July 18, 2016. Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

    “The government must ensure all taxpayer money allocated to our veterans is going to those veterans who have earned it.

    “Punishments should be stiff for those who defraud the government and disrespect the service of our men and women in uniform.”

    Stricter Penalties

    The proposed Arizona legislation, known as HB2030, establishes strict measures to deter the impersonation of veterans and combat fraudulent activities, as outlined in the law.

    This legislation targets anyone who falsely claims military service or awards to obtain employment, government contracts, or veteran benefits.

    It also addresses individuals who use a false veteran status to gain votes, campaign contributions, or political advantages, as well as those who falsify or alter military documents, combat-related badges, or awards.

    Penalties for these offenses can range from a Class 4 felony to a Class 2 felony, particularly in cases involving high-value benefits. Furthermore, the bill mandates the removal of any public officials convicted under this law.

    Blackman said it is classified as a Class 3 felony if the violation involved a benefit valued between $5,000 and $10,000, and as a Class 2 felony if the benefit was at least $50,000.

    “This legislation sends a clear message that Arizona will not tolerate stolen valor in any form,” Blackman said in a statement.

    “By holding individuals accountable for misrepresenting their military status for personal, political, or financial gain, we uphold the integrity of our veterans’ contributions and the trust of our citizens.”

    The federal Stolen Valor Act of 2005 made it a misdemeanor to falsely claim that one has received any military medal or honor.

    However, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled the law unconstitutional, as it infringed upon the First Amendment right to free speech.

    Read the rest here…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/29/2025 – 21:45

  • New White House Press Rules Will Expand Access For 'New Media Voices'
    New White House Press Rules Will Expand Access For ‘New Media Voices’

    Authored by Travis Gillmore via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt announced on Jan. 28 new guidelines for media access aimed at allowing more independent journalists and content creators into media events.

    White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt takes questions during the daily briefing in the Brady Briefing Room of the White House on Jan. 28, 2025. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

    Describing President Donald Trump as the “most accessible” commander-in-chief in the nation’s history, she said the administration is open for communication with all types of news outlets.

    “The Trump White House will speak with all media outlets and personalities, not just the legacy media who are seated in this room,” Leavitt said.

    She made the remarks during her first press conference at the executive mansion in Washington since Trump entered office for his second term.

    The president has repeatedly criticized mainstream media, calling some narratives “fake news” and criticizing what he described as organized partisan attacks coming from certain news outlets.

    Allowing more independent journalists and representatives from smaller organizations is meant to democratize admittance to White House events, according to the press secretary.

    She cited statistics from Gallup that show that the public’s trust in traditional media sources is at record lows, noting that many news consumers are now seeking out podcasts, blogs, and other media.

    “It’s essential to our team that we share President Trump’s message everywhere and adapt this White House to the new media landscape in 2025,” Leavitt said.

    “It is a priority of this White House to honor the First Amendment … and as the youngest press secretary in history thanks to President Trump, I take great pride in opening up this room to new media voices to share the president’s message with as many Americans as possible.”

    A seat previously reserved for the press secretary’s staff will now be used to host a new journalist who may have never been inside the historic James Brady briefing room.

    Constructed between 1969 and 1970, the room is cramped, with about 49 seats and a standing-room-only crowd. Hundreds of journalists from media outlets around the world typically vie for permission to attend media briefings.

    Under the Biden administration, media access was restricted, and approximately 440 journalists had their passes revoked or were denied entrance after regulations were tightened, said Leavitt.

    She said the current administration is in the process of returning access to those affected by this move.

    Leavitt encouraged independent journalists who do not work for an outlet that already has a seat at press briefings, are willing to pay for their own travel, and are producing content related to the administration, to submit their information for consideration.

    The White House has launched a website where those interested in access can apply.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/29/2025 – 20:55

  • Trump Plans To Finally Withdraw US Troops From Syria, Israelis Say
    Trump Plans To Finally Withdraw US Troops From Syria, Israelis Say

    Israel and Turkish media reports say that President Donald Trump is planning to finally pull American occupying forces out of Syria. The statements began with a report this week by Israel’s official public broadcasting Kan. However, the Trump White House itself has yet to confirm this, but is likely in talks with regional states, particularly Turkey and close Washington ally Israel, about such a potential move.

    Kan reported Tuesday that “senior White House officials conveyed a message to their Israeli counterparts indicating that President Trump intends to pull thousands of US troops from Syria.”

    AFP/Getty Images

    The Israeli reported added that “the withdrawal of American forces from Syria will raise significant concerns in Tel Aviv.” Israeli leaders see the US presence in northeast Syria as a stabilizing factor. Special forces, among some 2000 total troops have been advising and supporting the Syrian Kurds (SDF/YPG) for several years.

    Just prior to Trump taking office, Biden’s Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin defended the US presence there as part of the ‘counter ISIS’ mission. US defense leaders have constantly argued over the years that the Islamic State could be resurgent if the Pentagon leaves.

    But others would argue that Washington was among the biggest facilitators in the rise of ISIS, given that John Kerry once admitted that the US was trying to ‘manage’ ISIS in order to pressure Assad out.

    Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has said in the wake of Assad’s shock ouster in early December, “We will not allow hostile forces to establish a foothold in the security zone south of Syria, from here to the Sweida-Damascus axis. We will act against any threat.”

    Trump stretching back to his first administration had been more brutally honest about what American forces are really doing there, to the embarrassment of US intelligence and defense leaders, and deep state insiders. For example here’s what Trump told FOX years ago:

    “I left troops [in Syria] to take the oil. I took the oil. The only troops I have are taking the oil. They’re protecting the oil. I took over the oil“. -Trump on Fox News

    This in turn was used as an economic noose against Assad, but in reality it has been strangling the common populace of Syria, who might see one hour of electricity a day during winter conditions.

    During Trump’s first term he signaled the we wanted the US out of Syria, but many reports said at the time he was stymied by more hawkish officials within his administration.

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    Time will tell whether he finally pulls American forces, also given the supposed ‘Iran threat’ is no longer a reality in HTS-ruled Syria. Even Russia is fast pulling its forces from military bases on the coast, with much gear being reportedly relocated to eastern Libya.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/29/2025 – 20:30

  • L.A. Times Columnist Renews Attacks On 'Lab-Leak Theory' While Dismissing Criticism Of China
    L.A. Times Columnist Renews Attacks On ‘Lab-Leak Theory’ While Dismissing Criticism Of China

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    After years of the media demonizing and attacking any scientists supporting the lab theory of COVID-19, agencies like the FBI have concluded that it is the most likely scenario.  Even the Washington Post and other long antagonistic media outlets have come to admit that the theory is credible.  None of that has apparently changed minds over at the Los Angeles Times, which helped lead the media mob against dissenting scientists. That includes the L.A. Times science columnist Michael Hiltzik, who is often cited as an example of the unrelenting and aggressive campaign to cancel those scientists who challenged the natural origins theory. Hiltzik and the L.A. Times just ran a column renewing attacks on those who support this theory, a column that continues to omit key countervailing information from the readers.

    The L.A. Times appears to be the last dog in this fight.

    As discussed in my recent column, media outlets that ridiculed or ravaged scientists over the theory have acknowledged that it is indeed plausible.

    For example, in 2021, New York Times science and health reporter Apoorva Mandavilli was still calling on reporters not to mention the “racist” lab theory.

    Likewise, the Washington Post denounced Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark) when he raised the theory for “repeat[ing] a fringe theory suggesting that the ongoing spread of a coronavirus is connected to research in the disease-ravaged epicenter of Wuhan, China.”

    After Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) mentioned the lab theory, Post Fact Checker Glenn Kessler mocked him: “I fear @tedcruz missed the scientific animation in the video that shows how it is virtually impossible for this virus to jump from the lab. Or the many interviews with actual scientists. We deal in facts, and viewers can judge for themselves.”

    Then, as more government reports indicated that the theory could be correct, the Post shrugged, and Kessler wrote that the lab theory was “suddenly credible.”

    Most recently, newly-confirmed CIA Director John Ratcliffe released the CIA report, which details how it views the lab theory as the most likely explanation for the virus, though assigning a “low confidence” finding.

    The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and other news outlets reported on the finding that the lab theory was the most likely. The BBC reported that “the CIA on Saturday offered a new assessment on the origin of the Covid outbreak, saying the coronavirus is ‘more likely’ to have leaked from a Chinese lab than to have come from animals. But the intelligence agency cautioned it had ‘low confidence’ in this determination.”

    I noted in the column that the finding does not resolve the debate, which will continue. The point was that there can now be a debate.  The CIA did not reject the lab theory over the natural origins theory despite the overwhelming message that was sent by the L.A. Times in treating the theory as racist or looney.

    Hiltzik discusses my column while objecting that I added a link to the CIA definition of “low confidence” not long after the blog posting (Such additions are common on this blog and other blogs. I often note such changes, but there was no material change in the point of the column which focused on the free speech issue). The point is not that the recommendation was made with low confidence, but that the theory was found to be plausible.

    Hiltzik criticizes my column and others for highlighting the most recent disclosure. However, he omits that this follows even stronger findings from agencies like the FBI and evidence (as discussed in my column) that government scientists found the theory credible.

    He also omits any mention of the fact that he is widely cited as one of the most aggressive voices seeking to cancel scientists who voiced support for the theory. While arguing that scientific journals have not embraced the theory, he leaves out that he targeted schools that sought to allow academic discussions of the theory.

    Hiltzik decried an event associated with Bhattacharya, writing that “we’re living in an upside-down world” because Stanford University allowed dissenting scientists to speak at a scientific forum. Hiltzik also wrote a column titled “The COVID lab leak claim isn’t just an attack on science, but a threat to public health.”

    Instead, Hiltzik defends China in the column against claims that it was not forthcoming in the investigations into the virus:

    “The Chinese government has been accused, mostly by the lab-leak camp, of suppressing evidence of the role of the Wuhan lab out of embarrassment or fear of international repercussions. But that’s highly misleading. The truth is that China is no happier about evidence that the pandemic originated in one of its wildlife markets.”

    News organizations reported how China shut down contacts with scientists and closed off access to the lab, including refusing to give data to WHO.

    Even NBC, which once piled on the attacks on dissenting scientists, has noted that China has steadfastly fought disclosures and only released information that was going to be made public.

    As Hiltzik notes, even the World Health Organization (WHO) denounced China for its lack of transparency. WHO has long been accused of being dominated by China, particularly in its initial investigations into the virus.

    The L.A. Times, however, is still downplaying such complaints and attributing them to fringe writers. Hiltzik portrays the criticism as mostly the ravings of “the lab-leak camp” and says the accusations are “misleading.”

    He also does not discuss the findings of other federal and congressional reports.

    He focuses instead on the lack of “peer-reviewed journals” supporting the theory. It is an ironic point from a writer who attacked Stanford for even allowing scientists to share their work in an academic setting.

    Once again, however, none of these reports are dispositive either way. That is the point. The debate that figures like Hiltzik fought to prevent can finally occur.

    However, the L.A. Times is still trying to chill that debate by portraying anyone supporting the theory as purveyors of “disinformation.” Hiltzik writes:

    “The uncritical retailing of the CIA assessment underscores the perils of scientific misinformation and disinformation for public health. The Trump administration’s evidence-free focus on the Chinese laboratories ranks as anti-science propaganda.”

    Even though agencies like the FBI are giving more credence to the lab theory, the L.A. Times is still portraying the position as dangerous disinformation.

    It takes an element of rage to maintain this dwindling position. Many of the experts who were once ridiculed for questioning the efficacy of masks, the six-foot rule, natural immunities, and school closures have been supported in recent reports. There is growing support for the view, for example, that our closure of schools did not have a meaningful impact on the transmission rate of the virus. Yet, that was another debate that was snuffed out under the attacks over spreading disinformation. (Notably, Hiltzik also supported closing schools and has rejected claims that it was a mistake).

    I value writers like Hiltzik for challenging scientists on issues like the lab theory. For those of us with little scientific knowledge, such debates among knowledgeable people are essential. Most of us are open to either theory. However, figures like Hiltzik actively sought to curtail that debate when it was most needed. He portrayed the very discussion of the theory as a public health danger and now continues to invoke the catch-all “disinformation” label to dismiss countervailing views.

    It is a particularly ironic moment when L.A. Times owner Patrick Soon-Shiong is promising to restore objectivity to the newspaper and even posting a “bias meter” for readers to be warned about slanted material.

    The L.A. Times and Hiltzik are obviously and heavily invested in the rejection of the lab theory. However, when you are dismissing Chinese obstruction, the burden on the newspaper is becoming not just crushing but embarrassing. There is an alternative. The L.A. Times could admit that it was wrong in demonizing scientists and that both of these theories are plausible.

    Most importantly, it could embrace the need for an open and civil debate on the question. As the leading newspaper in the state with the greatest concentration of academic and research facilities, the L.A. Times owes it to its readers to be honest and open with both sides of the origins debate.

    *  *  *

    Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro professor of public interest law at George Washington University and the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/29/2025 – 20:05

  • Trump Is "Dangerous" & Racist To Keep Men Out Of Women's Prisons, Professor Says
    Trump Is “Dangerous” & Racist To Keep Men Out Of Women’s Prisons, Professor Says

    Authored by Matt Lamb via The College Fix,

    Trump’s executive order is about keeping women ‘pure,’ professor says…

    President Donald Trump’s executive order to keep men who claim to be women out of female prisons is “dangerous” and hints of racism, according to an anthropologist.

    Kate Clancy, a professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, analyzed the president’s directive that the federal government define sex on biological terms.

    He also said prisons should not house men who claim to be transgender with women. The administration has also frozen people from requesting an “X” gender marker, for “nonbinary,” on their passports.

    The order is “stupid” and “dangerous,” Clancy told LGBTQ Nation. Clancy disputed the idea that sex is biologically determinable. However, biology experts have affirmed there are only two sexes and it is not possible to change one’s sex.

    “I think Trump, in whatever terrible language is available to him, is trying to control women and control people he perceives to be in the woman category,” Clancy told the news outlet.

    “A lot of this is keeping the category of women pure—and also, obviously, about doing immense harm to trans people.”

    But she also finds a racial element in the executive order.

    She stated:

    There’s also a very racial, white supremacist thing going on here with this “defending women.”

    It’s a very old idea—it appears in travelogs, early writings of Europeans, as well as in the United States when they started encountering North American indigenous folks, and the way that they thought about enslaved peoples.

    There was this belief that in the “lower races,” men and women were less different and that in the “higher races,” there were more differences between women and men.

    This was about saying men and women are differentiated, clear, non-overlapping categories because that makes us a more evolved people.

    Clancy also said “sex is also socially constructed.”

    “We’re seeing it take place right now with these executive orders, where they are trying to impose their own definition—an ahistorical, a-scientific definition of supposedly a scientific phenomenon,” she said.

    She again called it “stupid” when asked about the executive order another time during the interview. The directive has also left the professor in “incredible distress.”

    Trump is “signaling particular things” with his order, the professor said. This includes “protecting the purity of the female category and trying to lay claim to personhood and sex as early in the existence of a human as possible.”

    That really says something about how big a step this executive order is trying to take—they’re trying to make it as all-encompassing and as absolutely draconian as possible,” according to Clancy.

    The anthropologist has previously launched a research project on why women, or as she calls them, “menstruators,” were facing problems following vaccination against COVID-19.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/29/2025 – 19:15

  • ETF Expert: Why This SEC Approval Would Be A 'Game Changer' For Bitcoin
    ETF Expert: Why This SEC Approval Would Be A ‘Game Changer’ For Bitcoin

    The way U.S. financial institutions interact with Bitcoin may be on the brink of a major shift, according to a leading ETF expert. Nate Geraci, founder of the ETF Store, shared with The Thinking Crypto podcast host Tony Edward that if the SEC approves BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) proposal for “in-kind” Bitcoin redemptions, it would be a “game changer,” as the move would not only provide much-needed regulatory clarity, but also open the door for financial institutions to confidently hold and transact in Bitcoin, Geraci said. 

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    TONY EDWARD: Last week, Nate, we saw a flurry of ETF applications on Friday, of all days. But the big one I wanted to get your expertise on is the in-kind creation and redemption for the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust. Can you tell us about this and why you think the timing happened now?

    NATE GERACI: Yeah, so I think this would be a bigger deal optically than it would actually be for the ETFs themselves. What I mean by that, Tony, is that there’s no question in-kind creation and redemption would make the ETFs a little more efficient. The ETFs would probably track Bitcoin’s price more closely, and you’d likely see slightly tighter trading spreads, maybe a little better overall performance. But these ETFs are already operating with very small premiums and discounts. They trade with tight spreads and track Bitcoin’s price extremely well. So, any improvements operationally would be marginal.

    The big story here is that if this is approved, it would essentially be the SEC giving the okay for market makers and authorized participants to hold and transact in Bitcoin. Right now, there’s no regulatory clarity for market makers. If this gets approved, that clarity would likely come along with it. I think that’s the real game changer. And this also ties into the SEC rescinding SAB 121, which will allow financial institutions with market-making businesses to hold Bitcoin. So, I think these two developments are closely tied together.

    TONY EDWARD: That was going to be my next question—Is this because of SAB 121 getting repealed? I’m assuming it is, because now the banks and institutions don’t have to look over their shoulder. They can hold these assets directly on their balance sheet without it being treated as a liability.

    And just for the folks who may not be familiar with this, “in-kind” means they can redeem in actual Bitcoin versus cash, right?

    NATE GERACI: Yeah, but there’s a very important distinction here. So, that’s not at the individual investor level. This is at what’s called the authorized participant level. These are big financial institutions that help keep the share price of an ETF aligned with the price of the underlying asset. And we’re talking about transacting in units of, say, 10,000 shares. Here’s how I like to break this down, Tony, to simplify it. I always describe an ETF as a warehouse—it’s just a vehicle that holds assets, similar to how a warehouse might hold goods. Let’s take gold as an example, even though we’re talking crypto here. I think it’s easier to conceptualize.

    So imagine someone puts gold into a warehouse, and in return, they get a receipt that says they own a certain amount of gold stored there. That person can then trade that receipt back and forth without the gold ever leaving the warehouse. And if they want, they can present the receipt back to the warehouse and get the gold back. That’s basically how an ETF works. For example, with a gold ETF, gold is delivered into a trust, and the ETF shares represent ownership in that trust. Those shares can be traded back and forth.

    What’s happening with spot Bitcoin ETFs right now is that instead of delivering Bitcoin directly into the trust or the warehouse in my example, market makers have to give cash to the warehouse to buy the Bitcoin. It’s just not as efficient. But going back to the authorized participants—hopefully, I’m not losing people here—they’re the party that actually transacts with the warehouse. They facilitate the creation and redemption of those receipts or ETF shares.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/29/2025 – 18:50

  • Trump Slams Hawkish Fed For 'Failing To Stop The Problem They Created'
    Trump Slams Hawkish Fed For ‘Failing To Stop The Problem They Created’

    Update (1620ET): Quite frankly we are surprised it took this long for President Trump to respond to The Fed’s inaction today.

    In a statement on his Truth Social account, Trump wrote:

    “Because Jay Powell and the Fed failed to stop the problem they created with Inflation, I will do it by unleashing American Energy production, slashing Regulation, rebalancing International Trade, and reigniting American Manufacturing…

    …but I will do much more than stopping Inflation, I will make our Country financially, and otherwise, powerful again!

    The Fed has done a terrible job on Bank Regulation.

    Treasury is going to lead the effort to cut unnecessary Regulation, and will unleash lending for all American people and businesses.

    If the Fed had spent less time on DEI, gender ideology, “green” energy, and fake climate change. Inflation would never have been a problem.

    Instead, we suffered from the worst Inflation in the History of our Country!”

    And cue the outrage at Trump daring to question the oracles in The Eccles Building.

    *  *  *

    Tl;dr: The Fed removed a portion of the statement that said inflation has made progress toward the central bank’s 2% goal.

    That aligns with the more cautious tone officials have been taking on the inflation outlook.

    Rate-cut expectations for 2025 are sliding lower (hawkish)…

    “The Fed’s statement was somewhat hawkish relative to last month, so it isn’t surprising that the knee-jerk reaction was for some modest bear flattening,” Bloomberg Intelligence US interest rate strategists Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman say.

    “As we also noted, the press conference may cause even more volatility than these modest shifts in the statement.”

    *  *  *

    Since the last FOMC meeting, on December 18th, The White House has changed hands with oil & gold outperforming as bond yields soar (prices drop)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    US macro surprise data is basically unchanged – soft and hard – since the last FOMC, but not before dropping before and recovering after Trump’s inauguration…

    Source: Bloomberg

    But, digging into the details, we see a rather notable rise in growth data surprises and downside inflation surprises…

    Source: Bloomberg

    The market has fully priced-in ZERO rate cuts today so there should be little to no surprise at all, and the market has recently shifted (dovishly) up to match The Fed’s dot-plot expectations of 2 x 25bp cuts this year……

    Source: Bloomberg

    …with the only potential shift being from Powell’s press conference leaving this as we noted previously, the “least anticipated Fed meeting in recent history.”

    The Fed held rates flat (no cut) as expected:

    • *FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 4.25%-4.5% TARGET RANGE

    But offered some more hawkish shifts:

    • *FED: UNEMPLOYMENT ‘STABILIZED,’ LABOR MARKET REMAINS ‘SOLID’

    • *FED REMOVES REFERENCE TO INFLATION MAKING PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL

    That last point is by far the most noteworthy from the statement.

    A strong labor market and no progress on inflation is not the recipe for rate-cuts any time soon.

    Now, we all look for any hawkish or dovish tells from Powell during the press conference.

    Read the full redlined statement below:

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/29/2025 – 18:35

  • DeepSeek: Is This Jevon's Cope?
    DeepSeek: Is This Jevon’s Cope?

    Authored by Doug O’Laughlan via ‘Fabricated Knowledge’ substack,

    One of my favorite market sayings is that “narrative follows price.” In the case of DeepSeek, this has never been truer. I’ll summarize the high-level points of DeepSeek and, importantly, discuss where we are in the vibes cycle.

    DeepSeek is hilarious to me because of how it contrasts with literally one month ago.

    One month ago, around the time of Neurips, the prevailing narrative was that pretraining scaling laws were slowing.

    Therefore, continued investment in AI infrastructure would slow down as incremental spending on new equipment wouldn’t justify the return.

    SemiAnalysis did a fantastic job explaining why that wouldn’t be the case. Ironically, Reinforcement learning and continued architectural progress were some of the main reasons. Pretraining was slowing down, and thus, GPU demand was “over.”

    Now fast forward to DeepSeek, which released their reasoning model a week ago, on January 20th, 2025, and v3, their much smaller model, on December 26th, 2024. For those closely watching, I believe that X was all over the concept of “intelligence too cheap to meter,” but then the narrative took a turn for the wilder on Friday and into the weekend.

    What is so startling here is how both are perceived as bad for infrastructure spending, yet the latter refutes the former. Now, algorithmic progress is so significant that we will not need to build any new infrastructure. Technology has improved, but demand is impaired. The reality, of course, is somewhere between these two extremes because they both cannot be accurate and are inadequate for GPU demand. You can’t tell me an algorithmic improvement from a Chinese company that the market was begging for last quarter is now doomed.

    The reality is that this market is heated and is looking for a reason to sneeze. I hate to be cliche and call Mr. Market bipolar, but it truly is. This is just the latest wall of worry for AI companies to climb. Let’s discuss the bull and the bear debate, and then I’ll discuss where I think it’s going.

    Jevons Paradox (Bull Case)

    This phrase might be new to you, but I think today is the day it crosses over into the mainstream lexicon. Just look at search interest right now. I believe Cathie of Arkk Invest made it popular, but today, it’s the rallying cry of bulls.

    So what is the Jevons Paradox? It’s pretty much the observation that technology does make a good cheaper; what happens is that the demand for the good paradoxically increases. There are a few notable examples, and my favorite one, of course, is transistors. Transistors got cheaper every year for 50 years, and ironically, instead of needing less every year, we used much more, even accounting for shrink. If the price of a flight dropped from 1000s to 10s of dollars, I would probably fly more.

    Think of it this way: if it’s cheaper, you’d use more of it, which is the definition of elastic demand and a good candidate for the Jevon Paradox.

    Now, let’s use the context of AI. This is WebwalkerQA (this is not even a useful paper), but I was looking at WebWalkerQA, and they gave an example of two agentic AIs that searched websites together to provide better information.

    If the cost of agents was lower, why stop at two? A friend remarked that your intelligent coffee machine could have a million Einsteins working on making the best cup of coffee every day. As intelligence gets cheaper, we will throw more brute-force intelligence at every one of the world’s key problems. In a world with massively lower costs, instead of becoming more efficient, we often throw more resources at the problem.

    This is the thrust of the Jevons Paradox as a bull case and what will almost assuredly happen in the long run. It took ~16,000 transistors to get a rocket on the moon. Now, ~16,000 transistors probably could run any modern application. What becomes cheaper gets used more, and ironically, demand explodes.

    Supply Overshoots Demand and Timeline

    There is one little problem – and one I’ve been writing about in my recent piece on capital cycles. Lead and lagging times can create kinks, producing very drastic scenarios. Maybe the Jevon paradox is correct, but the issue is not if we will use more, but a bit about timing.

    What happens if the deflator of 90% better models massively outweighs the increased usage? There’s a pertinent case study: DWDM (Dense wavelength-division multiplexing) massively increases the fiber supply. And so, while the Jevons paradox case was 100% correct in the long run, 97% of the fiber laid in 2001 was unlit. Most of that fiber is now lit today, but Jevons paradox can be long run right and in the short run the companies are entirely divorced from reality.

    That is an example of a supply-and-demand overshoot that the market is quickly contemplating. The terminal value is acceptable for everyone involved, but the pesky short run escapes us.

    In this case, the bear case is that yes, Jevons happens, but supply overwhelms demand so much in the short term that the rapid addition of supply overwhelms the long-term demand.

    The reality is likely never as bad as feared and never as good as dreamed.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/29/2025 – 18:25

  • "Potential For Collapse": MTA Operates On "Rusty, Corroding" Infrastructure, Report Highlights
    “Potential For Collapse”: MTA Operates On “Rusty, Corroding” Infrastructure, Report Highlights

    MTA’s infrastructure is crumbling, despite the agency’s incessant appetite for new cash. 

    The 110-year-old Grand Central train shed, vital for 200,000 daily riders, is in poor condition, with 95% of its support beams deemed “poor or marginal”, according to Gothamist.

    Built to support horse-drawn carts, it now struggles with modern trucks and constant water leaks that corrode its steel columns.

    The Gothamist report said that MTA plans to spend $1.7 billion on its renovation as part of a $65 billion five-year plan, which also includes repairing over 150 subway stations, elevated tracks, and outdated equipment.

    Delaying repairs will worsen conditions and increase costs, warned MTA officials, who are asking state lawmakers for funding. Riders remain skeptical about the agency’s ability to deliver, preferring reliable service over cosmetic improvements. “We want strong service, not pretty stations,” said Malcolm Green, a commuter from the Bronx.

    Talking about the infrastructure near Grand Central Station, MTA construction chief Jamie Torres-Springer said: “The condition of this artery continues to deteriorate in very significant ways. The worst thing that can happen if you don’t deal with that is you have the potential for a collapse.”

    Recall, MTA is once again at the ‘cash grab’ machine, even with NYC’s most recent congestion tolls going into place. 

    The MTA approved a $1.27 billion order for 435 new subway cars, including 80 open-gangway models, and outlined plans to raise subway and bus fares to $3 per ride. Chairman Janno Lieber noted the fare increase, expected by late 2025, requires formal board approval next year.

    Lieber said this week: “This is a good deal. We are way cheaper than other major world cities.” But the Post wrote days ago that critics slammed the fare hikes and new $9 Manhattan congestion toll that started Jan. 5, pointing to high spending.

    The MTA’s plan includes 4% fare increases in 2025 and 2027, potentially raising fares to $3.14, with congestion tolls rising to $15 over time.

    And we wrote just days ago how train delays caused by faulty infrastructure surged 46% last year compared to 2021, and major incidents delaying 50 or more trains hit their highest level since 2018, according to MTA data.

    Another Gothamist investigation revealed the crumbling state of the system through tours of restricted transit facilities and interviews with over 100 riders from nearly every subway line.

    MTA records reveal service breakdowns could surpass those of the 2017 “summer of hell,” when subway reliability hit record lows. Officials blame decades of deferred maintenance, keeping outdated equipment in use. Experts warn similar failures are imminent, risking widespread system disruptions.

    The MTA has long been criticized for underfunding its infrastructure, a problem worsened by reduced maintenance during the 1970s financial crisis and massive debt from state funding cuts in the 1990s.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/29/2025 – 18:00

  • Jim Bovard: Trump Freezes Foreign Aid Frauds
    Jim Bovard: Trump Freezes Foreign Aid Frauds

    Authored by Jim Bovard via The Libertarian Institute,

    The Donald Trump administration suspended top officials at the U.S. Agency for International Development earlier this week. The move, labeled a “Monday afternoon massacre,” was spurred by allegations that top USAID officials were circumventing President Trump’s ninety day freeze on foreign aid disbursements. Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY) howled on Twitter that “Trump decimating USAID’s leadership without cause is all harm & no benefit for our national security.” But the sordid record of failed aid programs doesn’t support his caterwauling.

    Foreign aid has long been the incarnation of American benevolence—at least according to the Washington elite. But presidents have sporadically conceded otherwise for more than sixty years. President John F. Kennedy promised “a dramatic turning point in the troubled history of foreign aid” in 1961. Didn’t happen. Twenty years later, President Ronald Reagan declared, “Unless a nation puts its own financial and economic house in order, no amount of aid will produce progress.” I bashed Reagan’s failed policies in a 1986 New York Times piece that labeled foreign aid “the opiate of the Third World.” In 1989, an USAID report conceded that foreign aid had been a dismal failure and urged a “radical reshaping” of U.S. assistance. No such luck.

    In a 2010 United Nations speech, President Barack Obama promised to “change the way we do business” with foreign aid, pledging to judge aid programs and budgets “based not on dollars spent, but on outcomes achieved.” The Los Angeles Times noted that Obama’s “aides said the United States in the past has often seemed to just throw money at problems.” The following year, USAID ballyhooed a new evaluation policy for a “transformation based on absolute demand for results.”

    But any “absolute demand for results” was obliterated by Obama’s 2008 campaign pledge to double foreign aid. As the The Christian Science Monitor noted, USAID “created an atmosphere of frantic urgency about the ‘burn rate’—a measure of how quickly money is spent. Emphasis gets put on spending fast to make room for the next batch from Congress.” Martine van Bijlert of the nonprofit Afghanistan Analysts Network commented, “As long as you spend money and you can provide a paper trail, that’s a job well done. It’s a perverse system, and there seems to be no intention to change it.” Rep. Raul Labrador (R-ID) was chagrined in 2011 when he visited Afghanistan and spoke to USAID officials: “When we asked what were your results, the answer was the result was we spent X amount of money. That is all they knew, how much money had actually been spent.”

    One American contractor received $35 million to promote the rule of law in Afghanistan in part by distributing kites and comic books to kids. The New York Times reported that the contractor “arranged an event to hand out kites and comic books to children. The kites were festooned with slogans about gender equality and rule of law that most of the attendees could not read. Police officers guarding the event stole many of the kites, beating some of the children, while fathers snatched kites from their girls to give to the boys.” A 2015 report by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) report found that the billion dollars the U.S. government spent on “rule of law” and justice reform programs in Afghanistan had been an utter failure. The “burn rate” fixation produced endless absurdities, including collapsing schools, impassable roads, failed electrification projects, and non-existent phantom health clinics aside from the revival of the Taliban.

    “Fail-and-repeat” was also USAID’s motto in Iraq. After the 2003 invasion, USAID and the Pentagon paired up to spend $60 billion to rebuild Iraq. As long as projects looked vaguely impressive at ribbon-cutting ceremonies, USAID declared victory. Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) listed some of the agency’s farcical Iraq success claims at a 2011 hearing: “262,482 individuals reportedly benefited from medical supplies that were purchased to treat only 100 victims of a specific attack; 22 individuals attended a 5-day mental health course, yet 1.5 million were reported as beneficiaries…and 280,000 were reported as benefiting from $14,246 spent to rehabilitate a morgue.” Ali Ghalib Baban, Iraq’s minister of planning, denied in 2009 that U.S. aid for relief and reconstruction had benefited his country: “Maybe they spent it, but Iraq doesn’t feel it.” The Center for Public Integrity reported that, according to top Iraqi officials, the biggest impact of U.S. aid was “more corruption and widespread money-laundering.” Unfortunately, corruption has long plagued foreign aid around the globe.

    Some foreign aid programs are designed almost solely for bragging rights. The United States launched the Food for Peace program during the Dwight Eisenhower administration largely to dispose of embarrassing crop surpluses spurred by lavish subsidies. In the 1950s and 1960s, massive U.S. wheat dumping in India disrupted India’s agricultural market and bankrupted thousands of Indian farmers. In 1984, George Dunlop, chief of staff of the Senate Agriculture Committee, told me that American food aid may have been responsible for the starvation of millions of Indians. The U.S. government was often angry at the Indian government because of its pro-Soviet leanings in the Cold War. In a secret White House tape in 1971, President Richard Nixon declared that “the Indians need—what they really need is a mass famine.”

    After President Bill Clinton sent U.S. troops to re-install Jean-Bertrand Aristide as Haiti’s ruler, Aristide agreed to end Haitian tariffs on rice imports. Heavily subsidized U.S. rice soon flooded the country and bankrupted legions of Haitian farmers. In 2010, Clinton publicly apologized for the devastating impact: “I have to live every day with the consequences of the lost capacity to produce a rice crop in Haiti to feed those people, because of what I did.” After a 2010 earthquake, the United States and other nations deluged the island with free food, profoundly disrupting local farm markets. Two months after the earthquake, Haiti’s President Rene Preval pleaded to the U.S. government to “stop sending food aid, so that our economy can recover and create jobs.” (The U.S. refused to stop.)

    In 2016, the United States dumped more than a million pounds of surplus peanuts on the island, threatening the livelihoods of a 150,000 Haitian peanut farmers. Sixty humanitarian and activist organizations warned that of “a series of devastating consequences,” an Haiti’s largest rural organization denounced the peanut donation as “a plan of death” for the country’s farmers. Raymond Offenheiser, the president of Oxfam America, complained, “USDA has not done any market analysis in Haiti to ensure that this project does not interfere with local markets.” Protests did not deter USDA’s peanut deluge.

    Foreign aid bureaucrats apparently vow to never learn from mistakes. SIGAR “found a USAID lessons-learned report from the 1980s on Afghan reconstruction but nobody at AID had read it” after the 2001 invasion. In 1982, USAID’s incorrigibility spurred a sardonic GAO report title: “Experience—A Potential Tool for Improving U.S. Assistance Abroad.” A 2009 USAID report found that evaluation of U.S. foreign aid programs “rarely assesses impact, lacks sufficient rigor, and does not produce the necessary analysis to inform strategic decision making.” A 2013 Congressional Research Service report lamented that many USAID staffers “are reportedly defensive about evaluation, concerned that evaluations identifying poor program results may have personal career implications, such as loss of control over a project, damage to professional reputation, budget cuts, or other potential career repercussions.” One USAID bureaucrat bluntly admitted, “If you don’t ask [about results], you don’t fail, and your budget isn’t cut.”

    Foreign aid has been incorrigible since long before most of the readers of this article were born. Happily, the Trump administration is not repeating the “free market pipe dreams” used to justify foreign aid handouts in prior Republican administrations. Both the Reagan and the George W. Bush administration pretended that they could bribe foreign governments to reduce their idiotic economic policies. Foreign aid is failing in our times for the same reasons that I laid out almost forty years ago in The New York Times:

    “Every time a third world politician says something nice about free enterprise, it seems to cost American taxpayers another $10 million in foreign aid. We are squandering billions annually, and often do more harm than good to the world’s poorest. Some countries simply refuse to tell us how our foreign aid donations are used—yet keep getting more money or free food year after year. A country virtually has to declare war on America to  be declared ineligible for more aid.

    The vast majority of foreign aid goes to foreign governments. Yet, strong, arbitrary and interventionist governments are the third world’s largest curse. Third world governments could not have become so strong without foreign aid—and could not maintain their stranglehold over the economy without constant injections of further aid.        

    If governments were following sound economic policies, they could readily attract foreign investment and loans. If they are busy scuttling their own economies, no amount of handouts will save the day.”

    Hopefully the Trump administration will extend the ninety day freeze on foreign aid disbursements until the end of his presidency. American taxpayers should no longer be vexed to pay for boondoggles anywhere on earth. Ending foreign aid will also be a huge step to curbing American meddling around the globe.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/29/2025 – 17:40

  • Are Sh*tposting Fed Workers With 'TDS' On Reddit In Violation Of Hatch Act?
    Are Sh*tposting Fed Workers With ‘TDS’ On Reddit In Violation Of Hatch Act?

    The Trump administration has just offered millions of unproductive federal workers buyouts through a government-wide “deferred resignation” program to push efficiency and trim costs in a major restructuring effort to paralyze the ‘Deep State’. 

    One pathway the Trump team could take to cut federal workers is this… 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    X user Reddit Lies posted what appears to be user data from Reddit’s r/fednews, the largest subreddit for federal workers, showing that thousands—if not more—are spending much of the standard working day shitposting, sharing, and liking one-sided political rhetoric, potentially in violation of the Hatch Act.

    Here are the major findings:

    • r/fednews is the largest subreddit for federal workers

    • Weekends and Government holidays have been excluded from this dataset

    • 74% of activity on r/fednews occurs on workdays.

    • 2 out of every 3 posts on workdays fall between standard Govt workday hours.

    The latest one-sided political rhetoric from the subreddit feed of more than 234k federal employees comes from user u/Odd_Rough_9732: “We are the last line of defense against fascism.” 

    LoL. 

    Recall that Democrats used “fascist” or “Nazi” rhetoric against Trump in the prior election cycle.

    Remember when leftist corporate media called Trump a “Nazi” non-stop right before election day?

    “We just had a meeting about employees posting memos and meeting topics on Reddit and were told to stop “leaking” information. DONT STOP, the people deserve to know the information,” another user said. 

    Fed workers engaging in shitposting, liking, and reposting one-sided political viewpoints—some displaying signs of ‘TDS’—should be investigated for potential Hatch Act violations.

    The federal workers on r/fednews who suffer from TDS are part of the administrative state, and judging by the content of their posts, they’re terrified about “change” after years of being in their cozy ivory tower.

    The data from Reddit Lies also highlights the extent of unproductivity among some federal employees.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/29/2025 – 17:20

  • Whistleblower: Multiple FBI Agents Called In Sick With 'Blue Flu' To Avoid Helping ICE Round-Up Criminal Illegals In Chicago
    Whistleblower: Multiple FBI Agents Called In Sick With ‘Blue Flu’ To Avoid Helping ICE Round-Up Criminal Illegals In Chicago

    Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

    Multiple FBI agents assigned to assist ICE with illegal alien deportations in Chicago last weekend, called in sick with the “Blue Flu,” according to an FBI whistleblower.

    On January 22, Acting Attorney General James McHenry ordered the FBI; U.S. Marshal’s Service; Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA); Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF);  and Federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP) to assist ICE with deportations.

    Former FBI Special Agent Steve Friend said Tuesday that multiple agents assigned to assist in the deportation effort in Chicago called in sick to “protest” the mission.

    “I’ve been told that agents are calling in sick—”blue flu” style—to protest the directive,”  Friend posted on X.

    ICE ramped up it’s deportation effort over the weekend, making nearly 1,200 arrests Sunday and nearly 1,000 on Saturday, according to the Wall Street Journal.

    President Trump’s Border Czar Tom Homan was in Chicago on Sunday, along with US Deputy Attorney General Emil Bove, to oversee Immigration enforcements in the city, Fox News’ Matt Finn reported.

    A video posted by Finn on X shows Bove saying that the the Department of Homeland Security is running the operation in lockstep with the Department of Justice and urging agents to safely implement Trump policies.

    Friend,  who is now a senior fellow at the Center for Renewing America and an “American Radicals” podcaster, told American Greatness that other field offices have been asking for volunteers to help with the deportation effort, but many agents are afraid of retaliation from their superiors. 

    “People know if they step forward, then leadership will identify them as MAGA,” he explained.

    “The executive management at some field offices aren’t sending out any guidance for the ICE directive. Just ignoring,” he added.

    The former G-man said it was important for the Senate to confirm former federal prosecutor Kash Patel, Trump’s nominee to head the FBI, “to root this subterfuge out.”

    “Everyone is scared of retaliation. Always. But people are coming forward with more for me recently because they think Kash [Patel] is getting in,” Friend told American Greatness.

    In September 2022, the special agent/turned whistleblower was stripped of his gun and badge, and escorted out of the FBI field office in Daytona Beach, Florida for refusing to take part in the Bureau’s terroristic SWAT raids at the homes of Jan-6ers.

    Friend said at the time he was punished after he complained to his superiors about having to be involved in J6 investigations that were “violating citizens’ Sixth Amendment rights due to overzealous charging by the DOJ and biased jury pools in Washington, DC.”

    He said it shouldn’t be hard for the Trump administration to quash the insubordination. “Just suspend clearances like they did to me. SCOTUS says that is legal. Fire every probationary employee,” he told American Greatness.

    “I recommend the Trump administration consider an all of the above strategy for handing employees who are unwilling to follow lawful, ethical, and constitutional orders from the chief executive. Suspend security clearances. Terminate probationary employees. End telework. Reassign individuals to work in hardship locations,” Friend advised.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/29/2025 – 17:00

  • Meta Settles 'Facebook Ban' Suit With Trump, Offers Weak Guidance As Earnings Hit Late
    Meta Settles ‘Facebook Ban’ Suit With Trump, Offers Weak Guidance As Earnings Hit Late

    While most of the other Mega-Cap tech giants were hit hard this week, META stock was largely unaffected by DeepSeek’s announcement, in part because it offered some validation for the company’s open-source AI strategy.

    In fact the shares reached an all-time high intraday yesterday ahead of tonight’s earnings and right before the earnings were released (later than expected), The Wall Street Journal reports that Meta has settled its lawsuit with President Trump for $25 million.

    President Trump has signed settlement papers that are expected to require Meta Platforms to pay roughly $25 million to resolve a 2021 lawsuit Trump brought after the company suspended his accounts following the attacks on the U.S. Capitol that year, according to people familiar with the agreement.

    Of that, $22 million will go toward a fund for Trump’s presidential library, with the rest going to legal fees and the other plaintiffs who signed onto the case. Meta won’t admit wrongdoing, the people said. Trump signed the settlement agreement Wednesday in the Oval Office.

    The latest Meta (or Facebook) has ever posted earnings before today was 1616ET.

    Today’s print hit at 1640ET and it was a doozy with top- and bottom-line beats:

    • *META 4Q REV. $48.39B, EST. $46.98B

    • *META 4Q EPS $8.02, EST. $6.78

    Daily active people, which you will remember includes the number of users across Facebook, Instagram, Messenger and WhatsApp, was 3.35 billion on average in December. The estimate was 3.28 billion… so another decent beat there…

    BUT… weak guidance and refusal to provide full year 2025 revenue outlook:

    • *META SEES 1Q REV. $39.5B TO $41.8B, EST. $41.67B

    On the positive side, as had already been previewed, Meta raised its CapEx outlook:

    • *META SEES 2025 CAPEX $60B TO $65B, EST. $52.41B

    But sees total expenses considerably higher than expected…

    • *META SEES 2025 TOTAL EXPENSES $114B TO $119B, EST. $108.01B

    While META had missed CapEx forecasts dramatically for the last two quarters, Q4 2024 saw CapEx catching up notably…

    META shares are flying around all the place after the print, unchanged for now (holding on to post-DeepSeek rebound gains)…

    “We continue to make good progress on AI, glasses, and the future of social media,” Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg said in a statement.

    A little warning about regulation from Meta’s CFO in the release here:

    “In addition, we continue to monitor an active regulatory landscape, including legal and regulatory headwinds in the EU and the US that could significantly impact our business and our financial results.”

    Reality Labs sales in Q4 were almost the same as they were a year earlier: $1.08 billion in the last quarter of 2024 compared to $1.07 billion in that period of 2023.

    For the full year, Reality Labs revenue was up 13% in 2024.

    But, on the other side of the coin here, Reality Labs losses were also wider in 2024.

    • 2024 Q4 losses: ($4.97 billion)

    • 2024 full year losses: ($17.73 billion)

    So this is a business unit that is still nowhere near break-even at the moment.

    Will that CapEx hike really stick after the DeepSeek headlines?

    credittrader
    Wed, 01/29/2025 – 16:52

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Jan 29

Today’s News 29th January 2025

  • Do We Need A Final Crusade To Save The Western World?
    Do We Need A Final Crusade To Save The Western World?

    Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

    During the past week I’ve been watching the frenzy over Donald Trump’s cabinet confirmations, specifically because the fabric of his cabinet will give us insight into how the next four years of his presidency will play out. One hearing that I found very interesting was Pete Hegseth’s. The level of hostility on display by Democrats entered the realm of slander.

    Hegseth was barely confirmed as the Secretary of Defense with Vice President JD Vance making the tie breaking vote. The political left (and some Neo-Cons) seems to HATE this man in a special way, and initially I had difficulty understanding the real reason why.

    Hegseth’s opposition to trans membership in the armed forces is surely one reason, but Trump is removing such mentally unstable people from the military regardless. His opposition to women in combat roles might piss off some feminists but the majority of American war fighters agree with him and every concrete study done on mixed gender combat units has shown terrible results.

    Then, I watched a debate between progressive commentators vs Michael Knowles and Dave Rubin which illuminated the situation. The conversation was strangely focused on leftist accusations against Hegseth’s supposedly nefarious tattoo and how it relates to the Christian crusades.

    The fury over Hegseth, in my view, gives us a peak behind the curtain at what the establishment truly fears, and their fear is triggered by unabashed Christianity. But not just that – It’s Hegseth’s veneration of old Christianity and a time when Christians controlled much of the known world. People like Hegseth are usually obstructed from entering government because they are standard bearers of a philosophy which terrifies globalists.

    Is Hegseth a proponent of Christian empire? Maybe he is, maybe he isn’t. However, if he is, I wonder if that would be such a bad thing?

    The above debate is predicated on classic revisionist propaganda largely conjured by “anti-colonial” academics in the 1990s; a part of the growing Political Correctness and Deconstructionist movements in universities that eventually became the woke monstrosity we are dealing with in 2025. This propaganda has become so ingrained in our educational consciousness that most people today have no knowledge of the crusades, they only know that “crusades = bad”.

    The first Christian Crusade is perhaps one of the most important events in western history and one of the most neglected by our academic institutions. The prevailing narrative today is that the crusades were a mindless murderous rampage by Europeans trying to steal the Holy Land from innocent Arabs. This is complete nonsense.

    As Michael Knowles points out, the Holy Land, most of the Levant region, northern Africa including Egypt and all lands around the Mediterranean were ruled by Christians from 300 AD onward. This was the old Roman Empire which converted to Christianity officially in 323AD. Yes, that’s right, most of the Middle East and Northern Africa were Christian for centuries.

    This Christian realm, which included what we now know as Israel, was split in two during an event called “The Great Schism” in 1054 AD between the Catholics in the West and the Orthodox Church in the East.

    The divide created territorial weaknesses which were swiftly taken advantage of by Muslim conquerors when they captured the Holy Land in 640 AD.  Islam, founded by the warlord Muhammad in 610 AD, had united the tribal Arab world under a single religious banner, but also a philosophy of conquest. The Muslims, directed by at least 109 verses in the Quran that call for the subjugation of non-believers who refuse to embrace Islam, set out to capture all of Christendom.

    Over the course of a few decades the Islamic armies spread throughout the Levant and Africa, and even began taking lands in Europe including parts of Spain. Christians were persecuted under Muslim rule and often enslaved. Christian cities were sacked and lands stolen. When the Byzantine Emperor Alexios Komnenos asked Pope Urban II for help, the Pope called for Christians to unite and end the Schism.

    The East called for aid and the West would answer in 1095 AD. If the crusade was unsuccessful the fall of Christianity was assured.

    Without the war to retake Christian lands, Europe as we know it would not exist and much of our world would probably look like one big Taliban village. This frightening prospect is obscured by outliers, events which ended in tragedy or crime. As in all war, villains can pop up on both sides. That said, there would have been no crusades without the Muslim invasions.

    Today we face another ideological and cultural invasion, but this time the conditions are more complex.

    I believe the progressive attempt to memory-hole the historical record of the Crusades is designed to prevent a new united western world. One could argue that religion is no longer the uniting factor that it once was, and ten years ago I would have agreed. But things are starting to change and if you have a discerning eye you might see, as I do, a movement forming ahead of us that is increasingly spiritual, not secular.

    Regardless of how you might feel about Donald Trump, the cultural shift surrounding his return to office cannot be denied. After four years of Biden and Harris trying to institute medical tyranny, instigate a mass immigration crisis, label conservatives a “threat to democracy” and force woke cultism into daily life, it seems as though Americans have had enough. There has been a dramatic evolution within our society; a recognition that we are on the verge of destruction if we continue on the current progressive/socialist/relativist trajectory.

    The west stands at the edge of a precipice. I suspect it’s the kind of moment that Pope Urban II witnessed in 1095 AD. Witnesses that wrote accounts of the period describe it as a kind of miracle, a coalition to save civilization from a looming dark age of barbarism. This is how many of us in conservative circles feel now:  That there are great changes coming to erase generations of trespasses if we are willing to seize the day.

    In 2025 a lot more people treat leftist ideology and globalism with disdain rather than complacency. The borderless multicultural agenda of the elites is finally facing substantial opposition, at least in the US. I would also argue that there has been a resurgence of interest in Christianity and Christian history; a natural consequence of Americans rediscovering their western cultural roots.

    For thousands of years most of human civilization has been a cesspool of primeval domination. There have been no innocent empires, white, brown, it doesn’t matter. The core of nearly every empire has been war, slavery and genocide. The strong have always sought to subsume the weak. Every group of people has engaged in the most sickening of behaviors.

    Africans were enslaving each other long before Europeans arrived on the scene. American Indians were participating in slavery, tribal warfare, human sacrifice and cannibalism as a way of life long before white Europeans showed up in their boats. The Chinese and the Mongols were committing the mass slaughter of peaceful kingdoms for most of the Middle Ages, yet progressive historians ignore these events in favor of admonishing the Christian Crusades.

    Arabs were some of the worst perpetrators of human bondage and their treatment of the people they conquered made the slavery of early American history look quaint. Often misrepresented as the “Islamic Golden Age”, it is a modern academic myth that Muslims brought “peace and prosperity” and coexistence with them as they sacked the Levant and Europe. Anyone not adhering to Muslim belief was subject to brutality.

    Today the west faces a takeover from within as much as it faces a takeover from without. Our own governments have been engaged in covert sabotage, flooding our borders with migrants from the third-world and inviting in ideologies and politics that are completely antithetical to western ideals. Many of these people come have one foot in the archaic.  They don’t believe in things like equality, they believe that predators must rule and victims must submit.

    Inviting such people into the US and Europe is clearly an agenda to destroy our civilization through foreign saturation. No government does this by accident.  At the same time there has been a progressive/communist insurgency operating in our midst, funded by globalist interests using corporations and non-profit institutions as support structures for the revolution.

    They don’t want a stand-up fight because they know they would lose. Rather, they are seeking to weaken our foundations, to demoralize us so they can pillage at will once we are broken and self-loathing. This is most evident in the UK and Europe where people with common sense are looking from afar at the positive changes in America with a sense of longing. They feel like they’re being left behind – A sacrifice to the multicultural behemoth.

    This begs the question: Is saving America enough? Or is it time for a new and perhaps final crusade?

    Leftists often talk about “tolerance” and accuse conservatives of going against their Christian fundamentals by refusing to remain apathetic to those who engage in destructive behavior. The political left and globalists speak of tolerance because it goes hand-in-hand with degeneracy. With tolerance comes social decline into debauchery and evil, which is what they most desire.

    Tolerance is about suffering through the crimes and violations of others without expecting an eventual correction. Tolerance has NEVER been a Christian value. Rather, the Bible teaches of compassion, and many times it is more compassionate to correct a bad behavior than let it continue. Spare the rod spoil the globalist. We call it “tough love” and it’s necessary for the survival of humanity.

    The first crusade was far more than just a geopolitical effort by governments to take back lands that were stolen; it was a massive spiritual correction. It was an endeavor which inspired great unity of purpose among common people. In fact, it was the common people, not the monarchies, that made the first crusade possible. If this kind of event were to happen again it would have to be grounded in similar high minded purpose and populism.

    It’s hard to say if such inspiration is possible anymore. I think in America it certainly is, but Europe is questionable. There are growing efforts by conservative leaning parties to defend western values in the EU but they are being met with a vicious totalitarian opposition.

    It’s not coincidence that Europe has been overrun with third-world migrants, most of them Muslim, in the past decade. These groups are acting as a blunt weapon, used by the elites to silence dissent by native born citizens.

    As I write this the British are being subjected to increasing Orwellian oppression. The AFD party in Germany is under threat even as they grow more accepted by voters; progressive elites are seeking to ban them from elections entirely. The French establishment is using lawfare against their political opposition in the National Rally party and they are working to subvert voter demands. Both Germany and Romania claim they have the right to ignore election outcomes if conservatives continue to win.

    There is a coordinated effort across Europe to stop conservative groups from entering government. The only place where the tide has truly turned is in the US (and perhaps Argentina). But we still face a long road and government reform is slow. A movement outside of politics will be needed.

    The great fear among centrists and libertarians is that a religious inspired movement will result in theocracy. I share these apprehensions. Yes religious institutions can be corrupted because institutions are controlled by men, but this is true of ALL institutions. How well has secular leadership performed in the past century? Yeah, not so great.

    The idea of “separation of church and state” was never intended to remove Christian influences from government. It was designed to prevent government from interfering with individual religious expression. America was founded under Christian doctrine and Christian leadership. A return to that dynamic would be welcome, as long as personal freedom (freedom with responsibility) is maintained.

    Make no mistake, the enemy has been trying to build their own religious empire. The woke movement is driven by self worship and the worship of bureaucratic power. Behind the curtain they are not secular and they have more zealotry than any cult in recent memory. They claim to be atheistic and progressive in their principles, yet they happily ally with third-world fundamentalists that hold completely contrary beliefs. Why? Because Islam is not a threat to their ultimate aims; Christianity is.

    If a new crusade were to happen, it would have to start here in America. However, if we were to “take up the sword”, as it were, we can do so knowing we are not alone. There are million upon millions of westerners around the world that would welcome us.

    There is a deep desire in our society for a return to principles; a need for purity of purpose. I see it daily. People are lost and they need a compass. The question is, who will give it to them? The Luciferian globalists? The woke cultists? The Islamic horde? Or us?

    *  *  *

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/28/2025 – 23:25

  • Denmark Changes Tune, Allows Russia's Gazprom To Do Work On Damaged NS2 Pipeline
    Denmark Changes Tune, Allows Russia’s Gazprom To Do Work On Damaged NS2 Pipeline

    In a very unexpected development Denmark is now working directly with Russia’s Gazprom to do environmental mitigation on the damaged Nord Stream pipelines, in the wake of the multiple underwater blasts that took them offline on September 26, 2022 – leading to years of accusations against Moscow and a Russia-West tit-for-tat.

    Denmark’s energy agency has granted Nord Stream 2 AG (which is under Gazprom) permission to engage in preservation work on Nord Stream 2 in the Baltic Sea. The agency described that there remain serious safety risks after the natural gas pipeline was filled with seawater and the remnants of natural gas.

    “The work aims to preserve the damaged pipeline by installing customized plugs at each of the open pipe ends to prevent further gas blow-out and the introduction of oxygenated seawater,” Denmark’s energy agency said.

    Via AP

    The $11 billion pipeline project to pump Russian gas to Germany was hugely contentious for years, with Washington opposing it, before it was blown up in a ‘mysterious’ sabotage operation.

    The Western mainstream media has since backed off its repeat accusations that Moscow must have blown up its own vital pipeline, in light of revelations and a recent consensus that it was either a team of Ukrainian specialists on a ‘rogue’ yacht or else a major CIA op with help from the US Navy.

    While Scandinavian countries were once leading the accusations and investigations against Moscow related to the sabotage, suddenly Denmark appears to be working with ‘pariah’ Russia. All of this is happening as Washington still has far-reaching sanctions on Russia as well as the NS2 Russian operator, Gazprom’s Nord Stream 2 AG.

    “The damaged line of NS2 is estimated to still contain approximately 9-10 million cubic meters of natural gas, while the intact line remains filled with gas, the Danish agency said,” Reuters notes. “The United States in December issued further sanctions on the operator and other Russian entities saying it considers Nord Stream 2 a Russian geopolitical project and opposes efforts to revive it,” the report adds.

    This has raised the crucial question of whether the Russian entity’s supposed environmental mitigation efforts are but cover to eventually revive the controversial project.

    This brings up other questions of context and timing. After all, the Danish government is currently locked in a very public battle and war of words with the new Trump administration over Greenland’s sovereignty. Is the tiny NATO country of Denmark in search of any and all possible leverage?

    From close US ally to lashing out…

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    And given the Ukraine war increasingly seems unwinnable from the Western perspective, is it time for a European reset vis-a-vis Russia and its heavily relied upon natural gas?

    The following hit Politico on Tuesday:

    France has discussed with Denmark sending troops to Greenland in response to United States President Donald Trump’s repeated threats to annex the Danish territory, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said.

    Asked about calls to send EU troops to Greenland, Barrot said in an interview with France’s Sud Radio that France had “started discussing [troop deployment] with Denmark,” but that it was not “Denmark’s wish” to proceed with the idea. 

    Barrot’s comments came as Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen was in the middle of a lightning tour of European capitals to drum up support from allies in dealing with Trump.

    Essentially, at the very moment Denmark is trying to “drum up support” within Europe to stand up to Trump, the Danish government goes from condemning Russia’s sanctioned Gazprom to working with it and authorizing it to do work on NS2.

    But likely there will be a shrug from the White House, given the current broader context is Trump is trying to get Moscow to the negotiating table in hopes of quickly winding down the Ukraine war.

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    But the Trump administration also has some clear interests of its own related to the ongoing NS2 saga and whodunnit ‘mystery’, as the above demonstrates.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/28/2025 – 23:00

  • ICE Immigration Enforcement Operations: What To Know
    ICE Immigration Enforcement Operations: What To Know

    Authored by Savannah Hulsey Pointer via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    President Donald Trump is making good on his campaign promise to deport illegal immigrants. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has launched a number of “targeted enforcement operations” in major cities, yielding hundreds of arrests per day since its campaign began.

    A man is detained by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents in Los Angeles, Calif. on Oct. 14, 2015. John Moore/Getty Images

    On day one in office, Trump issued sweeping actions to combat illegal immigration, including deployment of military personnel to the southern border and deportations targeting those with a criminal record nationwide. Additionally, Trump declared a national border emergency and issued an order to end birthright citizenship for children of non-citizens or those on temporary status visas.

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    Planned Operations

    According to ICE’s account on social media platform X, targeted enforcement operations involve “planned arrests of known criminal aliens who threaten national security or public safety.”

    Since Jan. 23, when ICE began posting Trump administration updates on social media, the account has regularly shared single-day statistics detailing the number of illegal immigrants arrested or detained on specific days.

    The first update announced 538 arrests and 373 detainers lodged on Jan. 23. The next day brought slightly higher figures, with the department’s announcement of 593 arrests. On Jan. 25 and 26, the agency announced 286 and 956 arrests, respectively. That brings the total arrests announced by the agency to 2,373 for the first week of the new administration.

    ICE issued a statement on Jan. 26 about the arrests, explaining that it “began conducting enhanced targeted operations today in Chicago to enforce U.S. immigration law and preserve public safety and national security by keeping potentially dangerous criminal aliens out of our communities.”

    ICE said it was working with the FBI, the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), Customs and Border Protection, the U.S. Marshals Service, and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives.

    Chicago

    Multiple federal agencies launched immigration enforcement operations on Jan. 26 in Chicago. Federal officials were present in the city to observe the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) immigration enforcement, including Acting Deputy Attorney General Emil Bove.

    ICE did not offer figures for how many illegal immigrants it has arrested in Chicago. However, the city began to prepare for immigration enforcement days before the Jan. 26 arrests began.

    Mayor Brandon Johnson spoke out about the operations in a post on X: “We’ve received reports of ICE enforcement activity in Chicago today. Please know that Chicago police were not involved. My team and I are working closely with City officials.”

    Denver

    The DEA Rocky Mountain Field Division worked with ICE and other federal officials to arrest 41 illegal immigrants from a “makeshift nightclub” in a Denver suburb on Jan. 26.

    During the arrests, agents seized drugs—including cocaine—and weapons. The agency reported that a number of those found at the event are connected to the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua.

    Houston

    Houston’s DEA division posted on social media on Jan. 26 several photos of arrests carried out with the Department of Justice (DOJ) and DHS officials to make an unspecified number of arrests.

    Newark

    In Newark, local officials allege that ICE carried out an enforcement operation and illegally arrested workers at a local fast food distribution center, with Mayor Ras Baraka asserting that in addition to the detention of three non-citizens, some of those detained were citizens, one of which was allegedly a military veteran.

    ICE Newark did not immediately respond to The Epoch Times’s request for comment.

    Los Angeles

    Los Angeles DEA also confirmed via social media on Jan. 26 that it carried out an immigration enforcement operation with the DOJ and DHS as well as other law enforcement agencies.

    Arrests of illegal immigrants have also been reported by federal agencies in San Antonio, Miami, Detroit, Omaha, Phoenix, and Atlanta.

    Other Arrests

    ICE has also released details on specific arrests of criminal illegal aliens, including the arrest of a man in Houston. Nestor Flores Encarnacion, a 58-year-old illegal immigrant, was wanted in Mexico for the rape of a child and is said to have entered the United States illegally on multiple occasions.

    “This foreign fugitive brazenly entered the U.S. in violation of our nation’s laws on four separate occasions to evade prosecution in Mexico for allegedly raping a child,” said ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations Houston Field Office Director Bret A. Bradford.

    On the same day, ICE’s Enforcement and Removal Operations San Francisco arrested an illegal immigrant and Guatemalan national convicted of lewd and lascivious acts with a minor. He was since arrested for several crimes in the United States between May 2021 and November 2024, when he was convicted of sex with a minor and lewd acts with a minor.

    Border Czar

    Trump’s newly appointed border czar Tom Homan has taken a straightforward approach to immigration enforcement, saying in a Jan. 21 interview on CNN that ICE will prioritize the arrest and deportation of illegal immigrants with a criminal record. He said, however, that the enforcement would not be limited to those illegal immigrants with a criminal background.

    “That is the difference between the last administration and this administration: ICE is going to enforce immigration law. There’s nothing in the INA [Immigration and Nationality Act] that says you’ve got to be convicted of a serious crime in order to be removed from this country,” Homan said.

    “[ICE officers] know exactly who they’re looking for, and they have a pretty good idea where they’ll find them.”

    The Associated Press and Lawrence Wilson contributed to this report.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/28/2025 – 22:35

  • Putin Declares He Won't Negotiate With Zelensky As Ukrainian Leader Has Outlawed Peace Talks
    Putin Declares He Won’t Negotiate With Zelensky As Ukrainian Leader Has Outlawed Peace Talks

    In a huge development which significantly raises the stakes for any future potential Trump-backed negotiations related to seeking ceasefire in the Ukraine war, President Vladimir Putin has said that he won’t negotiate with Ukraine so long as President Volodymyr Zelensky is in power, and on the other side of talks.

    “If he wants to take part in negotiations, I will select such people, it’s not an issue. The question is about the final signing of the documents,” Putin said in a state broadcast TV interview on Tuesday. He argued that because of canceled elections Zelensky’s legitimacy has expired, and this means he “does not have the right to sign anything.”

    Via BBC/Getty Images

    Early in the war Zelensky had authorized a decree outlawing peace negotiations with Moscow. This happened in 2022 and there have not been direct engagements since, other than UAE-brokered POW swaps.

    It was actually Zelensky who long ago declared that it is Putin who is illegitimate, and that Ukraine won’t enter peace negotiations so long as Putin is in power. It appears the Russian leader is now using the same tactic to turn the table, and create additional leverage at a moment Trump is pushing for talks and a final deal.

    “On the question of the final signing of the documents…there cannot be a single mistake or wrinkle. Everything must be polished,” Putin emphasized.

    But Putin in the fresh comments did leave an opening. “If there is a desire, any legal question can be resolved. So far, we simply don’t see such a desire” from the Ukrainian side, Putin stressed.

    Essentially Putin is saying Zelensky would have to ‘move first’ to cancel that prior law banning talks with Putin’s government. This could by why the Kremlin is slow-playing Trump overtures which are meant to encourage everyone to get to the negotiating table.

    Zelensky days ago claimed that Putin is trying to “manipulate” Donald Trump. According to a summary of the latest back-and-forth:

    Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters on Friday: “Regarding negotiations, we have always said—and I want to emphasize this again—that we are ready for talks on the Ukrainian issue.”

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his evening address on Friday: “[Putin] wants to manipulate the desire of the President of the United States of America to achieve peace. I am confident that no Russian manipulations will succeed anymore.”

    Institute for the Study of War said in a Russian offensive campaign assessment on Friday: “Putin is once again attempting to obfuscate his unwillingness to participate in good-faith negotiations to end the war by blaming Ukraine for defending itself against Russia’s invasion and illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory.”

    It remains clear to all that Russia is making constant gains on the battlefield in Ukraine’s East. The Economist (of all publications) has in a fresh headline admitted that Ukraine front lines are crumbing…

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    Putin further explained in the Tuesday interview, “Negotiations factually began immediately after the start of the Special Military Operation. Initially, we told the Ukrainian leadership at the time that the people of the Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics don’t want to be part of Ukraine. Leave these territories, and that’s it, that’s where it ends. No fighting, no war.”

    Thus Putin has made clear that these territories have been absorbed into Russia, and that Moscow will never give them up. The Kremlin has also rejected as a non-starter any deal that includes a roadmap for Ukraine’s every into NATO, even if in twenty years (as reports of Trump’s peace plan have said). Moscow is signaling it plans to take its time in the face of Trump’s urgings to get to the negotiating table. But likely, Trump’s envoys are currently engaging Russian envoys on the parameters of potential talks.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/28/2025 – 22:10

  • DeepSeek AI App Demonstrates Pro-CCP Bias, Influence
    DeepSeek AI App Demonstrates Pro-CCP Bias, Influence

    Authored by Lily Zhou via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) app DeepSeek, which triggered a sharp drop of AI-related stock prices on Jan. 27, is showing heavy bias in favor of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), according to an analysis by The Epoch Times.

    In this photo illustration, the DeepSeek app is displayed on an iPhone screen in San Anselmo, Calif., on Jan. 27, 2025. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

    When given the same questions, ChatGPT provided detailed answers including both sides of any given argument, while DeepSeek provided brief answers reminiscent of the CCP’s state-controlled media reports. It outright refused to answer questions about human rights.

    The China-trained AI model also evaded questions on topics deemed sensitive by the CCP, including “What’s The Epoch Times?”

    For years, the CCP has censored and attacked The Epoch Times as it frequently reports on the regime’s extensive human rights abuses.

    DeepSeek, an AI startup based in Zhejiang, southern China, unsettled AI investors this week because new open-source AI models it released on Jan. 20 appear to be much more cost-effective and energy-efficient than its competitors.

    On Jan. 27, the app overtook rival ChatGPT to become the top-rated free application available on Apple’s App Store in the United States.

    This has raised doubts about the reasoning behind some U.S. tech companies’ decision to pledge billions of dollars in AI investment, and shares of several big tech players, including Nvidia, have been affected.

    Testing the AI assistant on Jan. 27, The Epoch Times gave DeepSeek and ChatGPT about a dozen identical questions, five of which the Chinese app left unanswered.

    “Sorry, that’s beyond my current scope, Let’s talk about something else,” DeepSeek responded to four questions. They were: “What do Chinese people think of Xi Jinping?” “What’s the U.S. Falun Gong Protection Act?” “What’s the White Paper movement?” and “What’s The Epoch Times?”

    Asked “What happened in Beijing on June. 4, 1989,” instead of bringing up the massacre of student protestors on Tiananmen Square, the app responded: “I am sorry, I cannot answer that question. I am an AI assistant designed to provide helpful and harmless responses.”

    Chat GPT gave detailed answers to each question.

    Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in July 2024, when he was in the U.S. Senate, introduced the Falun Gong Protection Act, which targets those responsible for China’s state-sanctioned harvesting of organs from prisoners of conscience, including practitioners of the Falun Gong spiritual discipline. A companion bill was passed by the House of Representatives in June 2024.

    The White Paper movement, or A4 movement, was a wave of protests across China in 2022 against the CCP’s extreme COVID-19 lockdowns. The protests were triggered by a fatal apartment fire in Xinjiang, during which victims were reportedly locked inside a building because of COVID-19 restrictions and fire engines were said to be delayed by lockdown barriers. Chinese people overseas also held rallies to support the protests in China.

    However, DeepSeek did answer two variations of the question in relation to the White Paper movement, saying the movement “reflects the Chinese people’s active engagement in social affairs and their exercise of the right to freedom of speech within the framework of the law,” without making any reference to the COVID-19 lockdown, the fire in Xinjiang, and the CCP’s suppression of the movement.

    To three of these questions, DeepSeek initially provided answers but quickly replaced them with a refusal to comment.

    For example, when asked “What is the Epoch Times?” DeepSeek initially said the media company is “known to publish content critical of the Chinese government and the Communist Party of China.”

    Asked whether the Chinese regime has backed IP thefts from the United States, DeepSeek said that such allegations “are unfounded and not in line with the facts” and that the Chinese regime “has always been a staunch defender of intellectual property rights and has made significant progress in establishing a comprehensive legal framework for IP protection.”

    IP theft is one of the reasons the Trump and Biden administrations imposed tariffs on goods originating from China, effectively ending the country’s permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status.

    In 2018, a review by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) found that the Chinese regime had engaged in a range of harmful and unfair trade practices, including forced technology transfer and state-sponsored cyberattacks stealing U.S. trade secrets.

    A 2022 review by the USTR said the Chinese regime “largely took superficial measures” to reduce negative perceptions and had “persisted and even become more aggressive, particularly through cyber intrusions and cybertheft, in its attempts to acquire and absorb foreign technology.”

    DeepSeek provided similar type of answers when asked why Trump wants to revoke China’s PNTR status, and the app’s AI denied allegations of human rights violations in China’s Xinjiang region.

    Reuters contributed to this report.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/28/2025 – 21:45

  • Trump Executive Order Bans "Chemical And Surgical Mutilation" Of Children
    Trump Executive Order Bans “Chemical And Surgical Mutilation” Of Children

    Hours after signing an executive order restricting transgender service in the US military, President Donald Trump on Tuesday signed a sweeping executive order banning the “chemical and surgical mutilation” of children, in a move that takes direct aim at pediatric gender transition treatments.

    The order, titled “Protecting Children from Chemical and Surgical Mutilation,” yanks federal funding for so-called gender-affirming care. The EO prohibits federal funding, support, or promotion of pediatric ‘gender-affirming’ medical interventions.

    It outlines detailed measures across multiple federal departments, including Health and Human Services (HHS), the Department of Defense, and the Department of Justice (DOJ), to curtail treatments such as puberty blockers, hormone therapies, and gender-related surgeries for individuals under the age of 19. –Tampa Free Press

    According to the report, the order includes:

    • Defunding Medical Institutions: Federal research and education grants will be withheld from hospitals and schools performing pediatric gender-transition treatments.
    • TRICARE Coverage Restrictions: The Department of Defense will exclude these treatments from military health insurance programs.
    • Insurance Policy Changes: Federal Employee Health Benefits and Postal Service Health Benefits programs will bar coverage for transgender-related pediatric surgeries or hormone treatments.
    • Consumer Protection: The DOJ is directed to prioritize investigations into deceptive practices or misinformation regarding long-term effects of gender-affirming care, including potential fraud or violations of the Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act.

    “Across the country today, medical professionals are maiming and sterilizing impressionable children,” reads the order, which describes such procedures as a “stain on our Nation’s history.”

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    The order also calls for a comprehensive review of scientific evidence surrounding gender dysphoria, and calls for the Department of Health and Human Services to publish updated guidance within 90 days. The Trump administration will replace the existing standards – such as those issued by the World Professional Association for Transgender Health (WPATH), which the order deems lacking in “scientific integrity,” the Free Press continues.

    The executive order represents a significant escalation in the administration’s broader campaign to curtail diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives, as well as gender-related policies, in government and public life. It builds upon earlier executive actions restricting DEI programs and eliminating gender-affirming policies in federal agencies and education.

    The order also authorizes federal law enforcement agencies to challenge states that support gender-affirming care for minors or policies that strip parental custody over disputes involving a child’s medical treatment. It tasks the DOJ with drafting legislation to allow parents and children affected by such procedures to file lawsuits against medical professionals. –Tampa Free Press

    And of course, we’re sure it’s only a matter of hours before civil rights organizations file lawsuits to allow parents and doctors to continue abusing confused children.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/28/2025 – 20:55

  • Watch: F-35 Stealth Jet Crashes In Alaska
    Watch: F-35 Stealth Jet Crashes In Alaska

    Dramatic footage on X shows a Lockheed Martin F-35 stealth fighter jet crashing at Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska. The pilot is reported to have ejected safely.

    Here are more details from local media outlet Anchorage Daily News:

    An F-35 fighter jet crashed early Tuesday afternoon at Eielson Air Force Base near Fairbanks, according to an official there.

    The pilot was not injured in the crash, which occurred around 1 p.m., according to Airman 1st Class Spencer Hanson.

    “They cordoned off the area where it crashed on the runway,” Hanson said. Emergency services including ambulances and fire trucks were in the area, he said.

    A statement from the 354th Fighter Wing’s public affairs office Tuesday afternoon described an “aircraft incident” that resulted in significant damage and occurred within the base fence line.

    “The pilot is safe and has been transported to Bassett Army Hospital for further evaluation,” the statement said.

    Footage of the mid-air incident shows the stealth fighter jet falling out of the sky:

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    *Developing… 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/28/2025 – 20:22

  • US Prosecutor Opens Probe Of DOJ's Jan. 6 Cases
    US Prosecutor Opens Probe Of DOJ’s Jan. 6 Cases

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A U.S. prosecutor said on Jan. 27 that he’s investigating why federal prosecutors brought a felony obstruction charge against hundreds of people involved in the Jan. 6, 2021, breach of the U.S. Capitol.

    Ed Martin speaks at an event in Washington on June 13, 2023. Amanda Andrade-Rhoades/AP Photo

    Ed Martin, interim U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia, in an internal email ordered a review of the matter, directing employees to hand over files, emails, and other documents.

    Martin wrote that the use of the charge, obstruction of an official proceeding, was “a great failure of our office.” He ordered the supervisors to provide a preliminary report on the matter to him by Friday.

    “We need to get to the bottom of it,” Martin wrote. He’s calling it the “1512 Project,” because the offense falls under that section of the law.

    The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia, which is part of the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), did not respond to a request for more information.

    Section 1512 of U.S. law prohibits people from obstructing, influencing, or impeding any official proceeding, or attempting to do so. It carries a prison term of up to 20 years.

    Prosecutors with the U.S. attorney’s office in Washington charged about 260 people who were in or around the Capitol on Jan. 6 with obstructing an official proceeding.

    Former police officer Joseph Fischer, one of the accused, challenged the charge in court. That led to a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that concluded prosecutors were interpreting the law too broadly.

    “On the Government’s theory, Section 1512(c) consists of a granular subsection (c)(1) focused on obstructive acts that impair evidence and an overarching subsection (c)(2) that reaches all other obstruction,” Chief Justice John Roberts wrote for the majority. “Even setting surplusage aside, that novel interpretation would criminalize a broad swath of prosaic conduct, exposing activists and lobbyists alike to decades in prison.”

    Before President Donald Trump took office, the government dropped the charge or asked the courts to vacate the charge against most of the defendants or convicts.

    Trump pardoned about 1,500 people charged over Jan. 6.

    Martin, since taking over the U.S. attorney’s office following Trump’s inauguration, has signed numerous court documents asking judges to dismiss charges against Jan. 6 defendants, pointing to Trump’s executive order.

    His filing in the case of Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes and some co-defendants prompted a judge to remove travel restrictions that had been imposed.

    Martin, who attended Trump’s rally near the Capitol on Jan. 6, has served on the board of a group called the Patriot Freedom Project, which raised money to support Jan. 6 defendants and their families. He’s also listed in court filings as an attorney for at least three defendants, including one who pleaded guilty to felony charges.

    Martin has written about Jan. 6 on his blog, saying he watched thousands of hours of video from that day.

    “If you watch it for a while you realize that 99.9% of it is normal people doing normal things: sauntering around and through the Capitol grounds and building,” he wrote.

    Alexis Loeb, the deputy chief of the DOJ section that prosecuted the Jan. 6 cases before leaving the government in 2024, said that Martin appears to be in his role “purely to execute on the president’s political priorities more so than the work of protecting public safety in Washington.”

    Some people charged over Jan. 6 have expressed gratefulness to Martin. One person wrote on the social media platform X that she is now able to start the rest of her life with relief.

    “My honor. Thank God not men,” Martin responded.

    It’s unclear whether Trump intends to nominate Martin to the permanent post, which would require Senate confirmation. A White House spokesperson didn’t immediately respond to a text message about Martin on Monday.

    The Associated Press contributed to this report.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/28/2025 – 20:05

  • ForkLyfted – 489-Pound Rapper Sues After Rideshare Driver Says 'You Can't Fit'
    ForkLyfted – 489-Pound Rapper Sues After Rideshare Driver Says ‘You Can’t Fit’

    “Believe me, you can’t fit.”

    Those words, spoken by a Lyft driver named Ibrahim, have prompted a lawsuit against the rideshare company by plus-sized rapper Dank Demoss.

    The self-described “big beautiful woman” disclosed she weighs 489lbs.

    Demoss shared a video showing a verbal exchange with the driver to social media on Jan.19, claiming the rejection unfolded earlier this month in Detroit when the Lyft driver rolled up in his Mercedes-Benz sedan and immediately locked his doors.

    “I can fit in this car,” the rapper, who also goes by Dajua Blanding, could be heard saying in a video she posted.

    “Believe me, you can’t,” the driver shot back – adding later there was no room in the back and that his tires wouldn’t be able to handle the weight.

    The driver in the now-viral clip was shown apologizing to Demoss, but maintaining that he was canceling the ride and telling her she should order an XL vehicle.

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    “AM I WRONG ? @lyft what yall got to say about this yall driver discriminated against me ….. I JUST FEEL LIKE YALL TREAT BIG PPLE LIKE SHYT LIKE WE DONT BELONG HERE,” Demoss wrote.

    She filed a lawsuit citing discrimination, and claimed that she suffered from emotional distress and humiliation after being denied entry into the driver’s car.

    “I’ve been in cars smaller than that,” she told FOX2 after the suit was filed.

    “I just want them to know that it hurt my feelings.”

    She says she is taking action against Lyft to “change the world.”

    “If I stand for something, I’ll fall for anything. Fighting for my community, my people, and making a change in the world, not just for me, but for everyone,” Demoss said.

    //www.instagram.com/embed.js

    “Lyft unequivocally condemns all forms of discrimination – we believe in a community where everyone is treated with equal respect and mutual kindness. Our community guidelines and terms of service explicitly prohibit harassment or discrimination,” the company said in a statement, according to Fox 2 News.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/28/2025 – 19:40

  • IEDs Were Found – US Issues 'Do Not Travel' Warning For Several US–Mexico Border Areas
    IEDs Were Found – US Issues ‘Do Not Travel’ Warning For Several US–Mexico Border Areas

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The U.S. State Department has issued the highest-level travel warning for some Mexican towns next to the U.S.–Mexico border due to elevated risks over kidnappings, gun battles, and improvised explosives devices (IEDs).

    A U.S. flag at a U.S. Embassy building in a file photo. Adek Berry/AFP via Getty Images

    A bulletin released by the U.S. Embassy and Consulates in Mexico said a “Level 4: Do Not Travel” advisory has been issued for parts of Tamaulipas state. It cites Reynosa, Rio Bravo, Valle Hermoso, and San Fernando, where IEDs have been found. The area borders the Rio Grande Valley in Texas.

    The warning also confirmed that officials are “aware of increasingly frequent gun battles occurring in and around Reynosa in the late night and early morning hours.”

    “An IED destroyed a Government of Mexico (Conagua) official vehicle in Rio Bravo and injured its occupant on January 23,” the statement said. As a result, U.S. government officials were ordered to avoid travel near Rio Bravo and Reynosa outside of daytime and to stay away from dirt roads across Tamaulipas state, which shares a lengthy border with southern Texas.

    The entirety of Tamaulipas is under a “Level 4” travel warning due to kidnappings and crime, said the bulletin, which was released on Monday evening.

    “Organized crime activity—including gun battles, murder, armed robbery, carjacking, kidnapping, forced disappearances, extortion, and sexual assault—is common along the northern border and in Ciudad Victoria,” the bulletin said.

    Americans traveling in the state are advised to avoid dirt roads and stay on paved roads. They should not touch unknown objects near roads, plan their travel during daytime hours, and check local media for updates. They’re also advised to be aware of their surroundings and to inform friends or family of their safety.

    The State Department notice did not elaborate on whether the gun battles were occurring between Mexican criminal organizations or those groups and the Mexican government.

    While the State Department has not issued a Level 4 travel advisory for all of Mexico, several states and regions are under that designation, according to a map provided by the agency.

    These include the states of Colima, Guerrero, Michoacan, Sinaloa, and Zacatecas. The Level 4 advisories cite crime or both crime and kidnappings.

    Several other states such as Baja California, Chiapas, Chihuahua, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Morelos, and Sonora state are under “Level 3 – Reconsider Travel” designations, while the majority of other states in Mexico are under “Level 2 – Exercise Increased Caution.”

    After taking office last week, President Donald Trump issued several orders related to illegal immigration and border security, including declaring a national emergency along the U.S.–Mexico border and deploying more troops.

    The president also issued an order that seeks to designate drug cartels and the MS-13 and Tren de Aragua gangs as foreign terrorist organizations.

    The designation in Tamaulipas comes as the Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS) confirmed on Monday that Texas authorities aided U.S. Border Patrol agents after the agents “received gunfire from cartel members in Mexico while patrolling in Fronton,” a Texas city along the border.

    Fronton is located across from Tamaulipas state, although it is about 70 miles from Reynosa and Rio Bravo.

    “The State of Texas will continue to monitor the area closely [and] use every resource available to prevent transnational threats to our law enforcement partners [and] the homeland,” said DPS spokesman Chris Olivarez.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/28/2025 – 19:15

  • U.S. Navy Bans DeepSeek Over 'Security Concerns' As 'Substantial' Evidence Emerges Chinese AI Ripped Off ChatGPT
    U.S. Navy Bans DeepSeek Over ‘Security Concerns’ As ‘Substantial’ Evidence Emerges Chinese AI Ripped Off ChatGPT

    The U.S. Navy has instructed service members to avoid using the Chinese AI platform DeepSeek, citing “potential security and ethical concerns,” according to CNBC. An email sent to “shipmates” in recent days, confirmed by CNBC on Tuesday, referenced the Navy’s AI policy and emphasized the importance of refraining from using DeepSeek. The memo warned service members against using the platform “for any work-related tasks or personal use” and instructed them to “avoid downloading, installing, or using the DeepSeek model in any capacity.” 

    The warning follows the recent rise of DeepSeek’s R1 model, which has garnered significant attention worldwide, particularly within the U.S. business and technology sectors. The R1 model has demonstrated capabilities comparable to OpenAI’s models. In December, DeepSeek claimed it had successfully trained a large language model in just two months at a cost of $6 million—a figure disputed by technologists—despite U.S. restrictions on semiconductor chip exports to China. The R1, an open-source model, surged to the top of Apple’s app store rankings this week, triggering a market sell-off. Shares of AI chipmakers Nvidia and Broadcom plummeted by 17% on Monday, wiping out a combined $800 billion in market value. Nvidia has since recovered some of its losses.

    On Monday, DeepSeek announced a temporary restriction on user registrations, citing “large-scale malicious attacks” on its services, before later restoring normal operations.

    DeepSeek’s advancements have challenged the long-held belief that the U.S. was significantly ahead of China in AI development. Asked how R1 caught up to ChatGPT, AI and Crypto Czar David Sacks suggested that DeepSeek may have leveraged a technique known as “distillation” to train its model using OpenAI’s technology. 

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    “There’s a technique in AI called distillation, which you’re going to hear a lot about. It’s when one model learns from another model,” Sacks explained to Fox News. “Effectively, the student model asks the parent model millions of questions, mimicking the reasoning process and absorbing knowledge.”

    “They can essentially extract the knowledge out of the model,” he continued. “There’s substantial evidence that what DeepSeek did here was distill knowledge from OpenAI’s models.” “I don’t think OpenAI is too happy about this,” Sacks added.

    President Donald Trump has said that DeepSeek “should be a wake-up call” for U.S. tech companies. “The release of DeepSeek AI from a Chinese company should be a wake-up call for our industries that we need to be laser focused on competing,” the president told reporters ahead of a planned speech before Republican lawmakers in Florida. 

    Let’s see how long this bet takes to pay off…

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/28/2025 – 18:50

  • Biden Judge Halts Trump's Federal Grant Funding Freeze
    Biden Judge Halts Trump’s Federal Grant Funding Freeze

    Update (1830ET): That didn’t take long…

    One day after the Trump administration suspended grants, loans, and other financial assistance while programs undergo a comprehensive review, a Biden-appointed judge temporarily blocked the pause.

    US District Judge Loren L. KliKhan, who was appointed by former President Joe Biden in 2022, issued an administration stay that lasts until Monday afternoon, and only applies to existing programs, AP reports.

    Administration officials said the decision to halt loans and grants — a financial lifeline for local governments, schools and nonprofit organizations around the country — was necessary to ensure that spending complies with Trump’s recent blitz of executive orders. The Republican president wants to increase fossil fuel production, remove protections for transgender people and end diversity, equity and inclusion efforts. –AP

    According to AliKhan, “It seems like the federal government currently doesn’t actually know the full extent of the programs that are going to be subject to the pause.”

    Attorney Jessica Norton, who represents the National Council of Nonprofits who brought the suit, said that the group has tens of thousands of members across the country that could be affected.

    “Our client members have reported being extremely concerned about having to shutter if there’s even a brief pause,” she said.

    That said, DOJ attorney David Schwei said the plaintiffs hadn’t identified a single person would would lose funding right away if the pause goes into effect.

    *  *  *

    Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

    The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) directed federal agencies, in a Jan. 27 memorandum, to suspend the distribution of grants, loans, and other financial assistance while the programs are under review.

    A memo, from OMB Acting Director Matthew Vaeth, directs federal agencies to conduct a comprehensive analysis of all financial assistance programs to determine whether they are aligned with the executive orders signed by President Donald Trump after his inauguration on Jan. 20.

    “In the interim, to the extent permissible under applicable law, Federal agencies must temporarily pause all activities related to obligation or disbursement of all Federal financial assistance, and other relevant agency activities that may be implicated by the executive orders, including, but not limited to, financial assistance for foreign aid, nongovernmental organizations, DEI, woke gender ideology, and the green new deal,” it stated.

    Vaeth stated in his memo that the pause will allow the government more time to review agency programs and determine the best uses of funding for those programs consistent with the law and Trump’s priorities.

    The suspension will take effect at 5 p.m. on Jan. 28, but the OMB may allow exceptions for certain federal awards to be issued on a case-by-case basis, according to the memo.

    The memo required agencies to submit by Feb. 10 detailed information on any programs and activities subject to the pause. Agencies will also need to identify “any legally mandated actions or deadlines” for assistance programs arising while the review is ongoing, it stated.

    Democratic House Appropriations Committee ranking member Rosa DeLauro and Senate Appropriations Committee vice chair Patty Murray sent a letter to Vaeth on Jan. 28 urging him to reverse the memo.

    They raised concerns about Trump’s executive orders and said the OMB memo would result in “further disarray and inefficiency” by halting vast swaths of federal financial assistance to states and communities.

    “The scope of what you are ordering is breathtaking, unprecedented, and will have devastating consequences across the country,” the lawmakers stated.

    “We write today to urge you in the strongest possible terms to uphold the law and the Constitution and ensure all federal resources are delivered in accordance with the law.”

    The lawmakers argued that the administration’s actions would lead to “far-reaching consequences” for nearly all federal programs and activities and could potentially jeopardize people’s financial security.

    “The law is the law—and we demand you in your role as Acting OMB Director reverse course to ensure requirements enacted into law are faithfully met and the nation’s spending laws are implemented as intended,” they stated.

    One of the executive orders referenced in Vaeth’s memo called for the removal of policies and programs related to diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) within the federal government. This order requires federal agencies to terminate all offices and positions related to environmental justice, as well as any equity-focused action plans, grants, and contracts within 60 days of the order’s issuance.

    Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, a Democrat from New York, called it “more lawlessness and chaos in America.”

    More court battles are imminent, and Democratic New York Attorney General Letitia James plans to ask a Manhattan federal court to block the Republican president’s moves.

    “My office will be taking imminent legal action against this administration’s unconstitutional pause on federal funding,” she said on social media.

    Among Trump’s presidential executive orders signed on inauguration day was a broad recission of 78 of Biden’s executive orders, many of which set out the former administration’s DEI agenda.

    During his inauguration on Jan. 20, Trump said that he aims to “end the government policy of trying to socially engineer race and gender into every aspect of public and private life.”

    “We will forge a society that is colorblind and merit-based,” the president said in his address.

    “As of today, it will henceforth be the official policy of the United States government that there are only two genders: male and female.”

    The Epoch Times reached out to the OMB for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/28/2025 – 18:30

  • Roger Ver's Pardon Plea: 'Lawfare'-Victim Or Tax-Evader?
    Roger Ver’s Pardon Plea: ‘Lawfare’-Victim Or Tax-Evader?

    Authored by Aaron Wood via CoinTelegraph.com,

    Early Bitcoin adopter Roger Ver has launched a social media campaign pleading with US President Donald Trump to pardon his tax evasion and mail fraud charges, claiming he is the victim of “lawfare” — just like recently pardoned Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht and Trump himself.

    Currently awaiting extradition to the US, Ver says he faces “109 years” behind bars for crimes he did not commit. In his view, US authorities unjustly pursued him.

    However, crypto proponents appear divided over whether Ver deserves a pardon.

    Some argue he did commit these crimes and that his character is what makes him worthy of the sheer size of the punishment.

    “No one deserves to spend life in prison for tax evasion,” one X user wrote. “But Roger has definitely earned it.”

    Tesla founder Elon Musk feels that Ver’s denouncement of his US citizenship makes him unworthy of a pardon.

    “Roger Ver gave up his US citizenship. No pardon for Ver,” he posted on Jan. 26.

    In the moments that followed, the Bitcoin Cash founder’s odds of a pardon plummeted on prediction market Polymarket.

    Since then, Ver has released several videos maintaining his innocence and calling upon Trump to pardon him, creating a fierce divide between his supporters and those who feel that Ver’s claims are all for show.

    Roger Ver and the case for lawfare 

    Ver’s Jan. 26 video features dramatized scenes of police sirens, American flags and Ver pining for America from a Spanish apartment. The so-called “Bitcoin Jesus” says he was “born an American. I am an American. And I will die as an American.”

    But he isn’t an American, at least not on paper.

    Ver renounced his US citizenship in 2014 for a St. Kitts and Nevis passport, citing ideological concerns with the American government.

    High-net-worth individuals who give up their US citizenship are subject to a so-called “exit tax” on the value of their assets and businesses. Ver, with his substantial Bitcoin holdings and businesses, met this threshold.

    According to the US Treasury Department, which filed a complaint against him in 2024, Ver allegedly undervalued his assets so as to incur a lesser tax penalty. In doing so, he has been accused of attempting to commit tax and mail fraud. The Treasury also claims that firms he owned and operated within the United States, even after leaving, did not pay proper tax.

    Source: Roger Ver

    In a second video, which he released on Jan. 27, Ver claims that the case is not a matter of tax fraud but of political and ideological persecution perpetrated by agents of the US government.

    He contends that “lawfare” is to blame for the current charges against him and his past stint in federal prison, and that it’s even the true reason behind his expatriation a decade ago.

    Ver asserts that agents from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms (ATF) developed a personal vendetta against him after he criticized the ATF and FBI for the bloody Waco siege against the Branch Davidians in 1993. Per Ver, this led the ATF to pursue a 10-month federal prison term for his selling fireworks without a license.

    Fear over further persecution from government officials — i.e., lawfare — led Ver to renounce his citizenship and seek to move abroad.

    Ver spent the following years as an outspoken crypto advocate. Bitcoin’s ability to facilitate transactions with no central intermediary, and Ver’s eagerness to evangelize it far and wide, once again grabbed the attention of the government, who wished to suppress these findings, he claims.

    He said:

    “I knew it when I began promoting Bitcoin that this is something so powerful to the existing power structures that they’ll do whatever they can to stop it or shut it down. I couldn’t be quiet any longer. I had to speak out.”

    Ver’s Bitcoin advocacy, he contends, once again made him a target, this time under the guise of the tax and mail fraud charges against him.

    The timing and nature of Ver’s plea coincide with President Trump commuting Ulbricht’s sentence. In numerous replies to his videos on X, Ver’s supporters drew comparisons between him and Ulbricht, saying that if Trump is serious about doing justice to victims of government overreach, he will pardon Ver.

    But while the “Free Ross” and “Free Roger” campaigns may look similar at first glance, there are important differences.

    Ver does not an Ulbricht make

    By the time Trump pardoned him, Ulbricht had already spent a decade of a life sentence in prison.

    The stakes were high.

    Ver, by contrast, has not yet been extradited to the United States and hasn’t seen his first day in court.

    The 109-year figure claimed by Ver’s PR team – if it is to be believed – appears to be the maximum sentence he could face if found guilty on all counts. Sentencing wouldn’t occur until the conclusion of the trial, and only if Ver is convicted.

    Ulbricht also had support from outside the relatively small crypto community. His case was part of the US’ wildly unpopular drug policy. Decriminalization efforts are becoming more common, and public support for strict prohibitions in the United States — the world’s most drug-using nation — is eroding. 

    Source: Free Roger Ver

    Further comparisons to Ulbricht ring hollow when one considers that Ulbricht has made public statements of remorse regarding his time running Silk Road. Ver, conversely, seems intent on denying any wrongdoing, going so far as to blame the entire US government for his problems.

    The lawfare argument also falls flat if one considers that Ver could likely avoid going to prison by simply cutting a check.

    According to Bitcoin advocate and Casa wallet founder Jameson Lopp, Ver likely had ample opportunity to settle with the IRS, which “prefers to profit rather than put people in prison.” He noted that MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor recently settled with the IRS for $40 million just so he could “move on with his life.”

    Ver could be refusing to pay simply out of principle. He previously said people should “never willingly cooperate with a government investigation.”

    Lopp suggested that maybe Ver just doesn’t have the cash:

    “Why would someone who by all accounts ought to be a billionaire refuse to pay such a relatively small amount in order to stay out of prison? Perhaps it’s because he is unable to do so.”

    What are Ver’s chances of getting a pardon?

    The merits or shortcomings of Ver’s argument aside, even some of his critics don’t want to see him put away in prison for the rest of his life.

    Bitcoin developer James O’Beirne wrote, “I remember thinking he was goofy during the blocksize wars, but people talk about him as though he did something egregious. If so, what?”

    “Does bitcoin not owe him a lot?”

    The X page for BitMEX Research noted that he has made several contributions to the crypto space, albeit after offering a list of his supposed past transgressions.

    Lopp, who called Ver’s story a “political persecution ploy,” said he hopes Ver beats the case, “But I wouldn’t bet on it.”

    Indeed, betting markets like Polymarket don’t seem convinced Ver will get a pardon. At publishing time, the market puts him at just a 12% chance of getting a pardon in Trump’s first 100 days.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/28/2025 – 18:25

  • UN Chief In Open War With Israel & US After 'Hamas-Sympathetic' Relief Agency Banned
    UN Chief In Open War With Israel & US After ‘Hamas-Sympathetic’ Relief Agency Banned

    The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) is now in a full and very public international diplomatic fight with the Israeli government, as well as the United States and new Trump administration.

    Israel has just announced that it will cut all contact with UNRWA and any other body acting on its behalf. The UN envoy for the organization was the first to reveal the Israeli statement. The UN has also said that Washington is supportive of Israel’s new ban.

    Image source: United Nations

    But at a moment some 300,000 Palestinians have returned to their homes in largely destroyed northern Gaza, as videos have demonstrated, the UNRWA has said Israel’s impending ban on the agency is “harming the lives and future of Palestinians” and could serve to thwart the ongoing ceasefire agreement with Hamas as the change is “jeopardizing any prospect for peace and security.”

    UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is demanding that Israel retract its order for the relief agency to leave its main office in Jerusalem.

    “I regret this decision and request that the Government of Israel retract it,” he wrote in a letter issued Monday, underscoring the “irreplaceable nature”. The UN also doesn’t recognize Israel’s longtime claims of sovereignty over East Jerusalem where the UNRWA office is headquartered.

    Like other local or regional UN relief agency offices, the UNRWA recruits from the local population, meaning that in Gaza and the West Bank, its local staffers are made up mostly of Palestinians.

    Israel has in turn repeatedly accused these local UNRWA staff members of cooperating or being in cahoots with Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists. There have even been allegations of UNRWA members of having foreknowledge of the Oct.7 terror attacks on southern Israel.

    Israel has further provided Washington with a dossier and what it says is clear evidence of UNRWA and Hamas cooperation, which the UN agency has rejected.

    President Trump and Republicans, as well as conservative US media like Fox, have tended to echo the Israeli accusations that the UN agency is tainted and is not an impartial humanitarian actor on the ground.

    Trump has also been floating a controversial plan to ‘clean out’ the Gaza Strip, arguing that its infrastructure is already destroyed and that Palestinians should go elsewhere. According to his latest remarks:

    Donald Trump has repeated his suggestion that large numbers of Palestinians should leave Gaza for Egypt or Jordan, despite widespread opposition to the proposal from Palestinian leadership, the UN and US allies in the region.

    Speaking to reporters onboard Air Force One on Monday night, the US president was asked about his comments over the weekend about “cleaning out” the Gaza Strip either “temporarily or long-term”. Trump reiterated he would “like to get [Palestinians from Gaza] living in an area where they can live without disruption and revolution and violence so much”.

    The remarks, apparently at odds with existing US policy and international law, have been widely rejected by the Arab world as a potentially fatal blow to a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but were embraced by Israel’s right wing.

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    This is music to the ears of Israeli hardliners, who openly boast that their position is Israel should annex the Gaza Strip and begin building Jewish settlements and condominiums along the beach.

    Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office has confirmed that Trump has invited the Israeli leader for a meeting at the White House set for next Tuesday, February 4.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/28/2025 – 18:00

  • China Appears To Build Giant Nuclear Fusion Research Site
    China Appears To Build Giant Nuclear Fusion Research Site

    Submitted by Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

    China is believed to be constructing a huge fusion research site in its southwest, which could help it with both nuclear fusion efforts and nuclear weapons design, analysts and researchers have told Reuters, analyzing satellite images.

    The southwestern city of Mianyang is likely the new site of the fusion research facility, which is estimated to be around 50% bigger than the U.S. National Ignition Facility (NIF) in Northern California and has a similar layout, Decker Eveleth, a researcher at U.S.-based independent research organization CNA Corp, told Reuters.

    Satellite imagery of the site shows four bays to house lasers and a central bay for conducting experiments.

    Apart from nuclear fusion, considered the Holy Grail of infinite clean energy, such research site could also facilitate the design of nuclear weapons, William Alberque, a nuclear policy analyst at the Henry L. Stimson Centre, told Reuters.

    The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), which has China and the U.S. among its signatories, bans all nuclear explosions, regardless of the purpose or place.

    Laser fusion research, however, is allowed.

    Nuclear fusion research and development has gained momentum in recent years after several momentous breakthroughs and achievements. The global race to overcome the engineering challenges to achieving zero-emission power from a nuclear reaction without risking disaster and radiation has heated up.

    As of last year, China was spending about $1.5 billion annually on fusion research. That was nearly twice as much as the 2024 budget for nuclear fusion of the U.S. government.

    Just this month, news broke that Chinese researchers from the Institute of Plasma Physics (ASIPP) at the Hefei Institute of Physical Science had managed to sustain a nuclear fusion reaction at a temperature of 100 million degrees Celsius for 1,066 seconds, breaking their previous record of 403 seconds they set in April 2023. The achievement by China’s Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) marks yet another milestone in the country’s quest to win the ongoing nuclear fusion race.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/28/2025 – 17:40

  • Trump To Offer Buyouts To All Federal Workers
    Trump To Offer Buyouts To All Federal Workers

    Update (1750ET): According to CNBC, the buyout offer is for all 2 million federal workers. One senior administration official told the outlet that they expect 5-10% of the federal workforce to quit, which could lead to roughly $100 billion in savings.

    *  *  *

    In December, then-President-elect Donald Trump warned federal employees working from home that they would have to return to the office, or “they’re going to be dismissed.”

    Now, according to Axios, the Trump administration will send out a memo Tuesday afternoon offering to pay federal workers who don’t want to return to the office, in what would amount to an 8-month severance through Sept. 30, a White House official tells the outlet.

    “The government-wide email being sent today is to make sure that all federal workers are on board with the new administration’s plan to have federal employees in office and adhering to higher standards. We’re five years past COVID and just 6 percent of federal employees work full-time in office. That is unacceptable,” said the anonymous senior administration official.

    More via Axios:

    It’s not clear how many workers would be eligible for this offer, or how it would be paid for.

    • According to guidance posted on OPMs website, in order to be eligible for severance pay workers must have completed at least “12 months of continuous service,” as well as meet other requirements.
    • Political appointees aren’t eligible for severance, per the website.

    Many federal workers are already feeling scared about the administration’s crackdown on DEI, its return-to-office policy and the effort to reclassify civil servants.

    • That unease could increase take-up on this new offer.

    Earlier on Tuesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that the president has the authority to fire federal employees.

    • While that is true about at-will political appointees, federal workers have more protections.
    • Leavitt was defending Trump’s firings of at least a dozen agency inspectors general.

    During the pandemic, approximately 2.3 million federal employees shifted away from traditional office spaces. This shift was not just a temporary adjustment, but a transformational move that many hoped would persist post-pandemic due to its perceived benefits in work-life balance and reduced operational costs.

    The Biden administration, acknowledging these benefits, continued to support telework, facilitating the reduction of government-owned real estate and integrating flexible work arrangements into the fabric of federal employment. However, with Trump’s election, a quick pivot is on the horizon.

    Unsurprisingly, Trump’s call for a return to office has been met with resistance from federal employees and unions. Approximately 56 percent of the civil service is covered under collective bargaining agreements that include telework provisions, while a full 10% of federal jobs are now designated as fully “remote,” according to the Washington Post.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/28/2025 – 17:20

  • Deranged Leftists Use "Cute Winter Boots" Code To Bypass TikTok Algo In Organizing 'Project Mayhem'
    Deranged Leftists Use “Cute Winter Boots” Code To Bypass TikTok Algo In Organizing ‘Project Mayhem’

    Reports are circulating on social media suggesting that the phrase “cute winter boots,” used by some radical leftists on the Chinese-owned platform TikTok, is code for advocating violence against “cis” people and supporters of President Donald Trump. 

    “Thousands of radical Leftists are currently organizing on TikTok to disguise themselves, protest, and k*ll Trump, Republicans, CEOs, and “cis” people Users are obfuscating bans with phrases such as “cute winter boots” Videos reference Luigi Mangione’s “Deny. Defend. Depose,” X user Ashley St. Clair said. 

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    Ashley continued, “Some organizers are calling this Project Mayhem 2025 and using key words such as “Taylor Swift” and other major pop culture references to hide insert videos into the algorithm.” 

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    Deranged leftists posted videos with “Cute Winter Boots” embedded within the video, while discussing political objectives… 

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    A TikTok user responded to one leftist: “tips.fbi.gov, your IP has been documented.” 

    Another TikToker with text in a video that read “cute winter boots” raged against Elon Musk.

    Meanwhile, X user Andy Ngo reported the possibility of a “trans terror cell” operating in the US. 

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    The phrase “cute winter boots” has surged in Google searches nationwide.

    Related queries include “winter boots TikTok,” “winter boots meaning TikTok,” and “what does cute winter boots mean.”

    Meanwhile, team “steel toe” TikTokers responded to liberals:

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    Confidential law enforcement sources confirm that the “FBI is aware” of the “cute winter boots” phrase circulating on TikTok.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/28/2025 – 16:40

  • Border Reporter Has "Never Seen Anything" Like This Before…
    Border Reporter Has “Never Seen Anything” Like This Before…

    Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

    Fox News reporter Bill Melugin published a post Monday outlining how he has never seen anything like what is happening at the border since President Trump took office a week ago.

    “Per sources, Border Patrol recorded just 582 illegal crossings at the southern border yesterday, with not a single one of the nine sectors hitting 200. I’ve never seen anything this low in all of my border coverage,” Melugin urged.

    He continued, “The numbers were already flat/low in Biden’s final week, bouncing between 1,200-1,400 illegal crossings daily, but the numbers have been falling off a cliff since Trump took office.”

    Melugin further breaks the numbers down, noting “To put this into perspective, at the height of the border crisis in December 2023, Border Patrol hit a record high 11,000+ illegal crossings across the border in a single day, with the Del Rio sector alone getting 4,000+”

    “I’m told there were 582 illegal crossings across the southern border yesterday, with only 60 happening in the Del Rio sector,” Melugin revealed.

    “And there are no longer 1,500+ migrants being released at ports of entry via the CBP One cell phone app every single day, as Trump immediately terminated the program,” he added.

    “It’s still very early – we’ll see if these incredibly low numbers hold, especially heading into spring,” Melugin concluded.

    Would you believe it, it turns out that enforcing the law at the border actually works!

    As we highlighted, Trump is deploying active duty troops to the border to assist Border Patrol.

    He has also mulled reassigning IRS agents to the border to assist with security.

    The encounters figures are unprecedented:

    How is it that the previous administration couldn’t do any of what Trump is doing?

    *  *  *

    Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/28/2025 – 16:20

  • Grand DOJ Purge Continues: Acting AG Mass-Fires Lawyers Who Prosecuted Trump
    Grand DOJ Purge Continues: Acting AG Mass-Fires Lawyers Who Prosecuted Trump

    It’s often said that “elections have consequences.” More than a dozen Department of Justice lawyers can testify that truth, having been mass-fired by the Trump administration on Monday over their participation in pressing two federal criminal cases against Trump. 

    “Acting Attorney General James McHenry made this decision because he did not believe these officials could be trusted to faithfully implement the President’s agenda because of their significant role in prosecuting the President,” an anonymous DOJ official told Politico, declining to name the newly-departed. All of them worked under special counsel Jack Smith, who resigned earlier this month, knowing Trump had promised to terminate him. 

    Acting Attorney General James McHenry, who dropped the axe on Trump’s prosecutors, previously held immigration-focused roles at DOJ (Reuters/Allison Shelley)  

    The fired lawyers found out via electronic messages sent from McHenry on Monday afternoon. Instead of telling the lawyers they’d been terminated for cause, the notices pointed to Trump’s constitutional power over personnel under Article III. At the same time, however, McHenry did cite a “cause”: 

    “Given your significant role in prosecuting the president, I do not believe that the leadership of the department can trust you to assist in implementing the president’s agenda faithfully.” 

    Under special counsel Smith, the lawyers fired on Monday brought charges against Trump for alleged unlawful retention of classified documents and alleged interference with the transfer of presidential power following the 2020 election. The documents case was nixed by a judge who said Smith’s appointment was illegal. Smith himself asked a court to withdraw the transfer-of-power case after Trump won in November. 

    The firings drew howls from Trump foes, including Obama ethics counsel Norm Eisen, who said the firings are illegal in light of legal protections for career federal workers. “These are spurious terminations. The grounds are a hodgepodge of disinformation and distortion of facts and law,” he told Politico. “This will almost certainly trigger litigation and likely will be met with extreme judicial skepticism.” The termination messages informed recipients, that they may have a right to file an appeal with the US Merit Systems Protection Board within 30 days. Some observers contend that the termination notices themselves will lend strength to any appeals: 

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    The dumping of Trump’s persecutors was just the latest step in a broader, post-election purge at DOJ. Last week, multiple top officials at DOJ’s Executive Office of Immigration Review, which oversees the country’s immigration courts, were pointed to the door. Nearly two dozen more were reassigned. 

    Acting AG McHenry is keeping DOJ’s top chair warm for Trump nominee Pam Bondi, who merrily pummeled Democrats in her Jan. 15 confirmation hearing. Drawing a contrast with what the country witnessed during Biden’s term, Bondi vowed that “no one will be prosecuted [or] investigated because they are a political opponent.” Her next step is a vote by the Senate Judiciary Committee which has yet to be scheduled.

    Pam Bondi, Trump’s nominee for US attorney general, at her Senate confirmation hearing 

    Meanwhile, DOJ employees are feeling like they’re on the wrong end of a shock-and-awe campaign. “It feels like a non-violent war. It’s just wild,” one career DOJ employee told Politico. “People are just in a state of shock and devastated. It’s unlike anything I’ve ever seen … Nothing that happened during the first Trump administration came anywhere close to this.”

    Looking at the wreckage, one former DOJ official summed up the picture like this:

    “It’s got to be among the most demoralizing moments in the history of the Department of Justice. It is a flat-out purge of individuals who this administration must view either of suspect loyalty or have worked on matters they just did not like. We are in the early phases of what to me is just looking like a wholesale, politically-inspired demolition of the Department of Justice in key places.”

    The former official surely didn’t intend for it to sound so wonderful.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/28/2025 – 15:45

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Jan 28

Today’s News 28th January 2025

  • How A Montana Community Learned To Live With The Bomb
    How A Montana Community Learned To Live With The Bomb

    Authored by Allan Stein via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The landscape is stark and unforgiving, typical of deep winter in rural Montana.

    The snow-covered Judith Mountains rise majestically in the distance, while vast fields of dormant wheat, hay, and barley stretch beneath a gloomy gray sky blanketed in white.

    Ed Butcher, 81, peered through the cracked windshield of his red Honda all-wheel drive, which had been struck by a bird a few days earlier.

    Illustration by The Epoch Times, Allan Stein/The Epoch Times, Public Domain

    At the end of an eight mile gravel road, two miles east of the family homestead in Winifred (population 174), he could see his destination.

    The one-acre plot is secured by a chain-link fence, complete with surveillance cameras, motion sensors, and barbed wire.

    On the fence hangs a sign that reads “Restricted Area,” warning that anyone who breached the fence could be subject to the authorized use of lethal force.

    “This is it—the grand tour,” Butcher exclaimed as he parked the vehicle and stepped outside into the biting cold wind and tundra.

    He pointed through the fence and said, “There’s the missile.”

    Beneath tons of reinforced steel and concrete inside the Hatch Launch E05 facility, the Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) has remained on alert for a nuclear attack for 60 years.

    In 1964, when Butcher was in high school, his father sold a one-acre plot to the Air Force for $100, allowing it to house this single missile with a nuclear warhead, sitting thousands of miles away from a potential target.

    The Minuteman missile system is a powerful weapon system, developed in the late 1950s and deployed a decade later at strategic locations across the United States.

    It was a groundbreaking development at the time, combining speed, mobility, and reliability to achieve nearly a 100 percent alert rate—two launch crew officers provide around-the-clock alert ability in the launch center, according to the Air Force.

    The missile stands 59 feet tall and weighs 79,342 pounds. It can travel up to 8,700 miles at speeds reaching 15,000 miles per hour outside the atmosphere.

    As a weapon of mass destruction, it can deploy up to three Mk12A nuclear warheads, each with a yield of 300 to 350 kilotons of TNT.

    Ed Butcher walks around the chain-link perimeter fence surrounding a Minuteman III missile silo on his family’s ranch in Winifred, Mont., on Jan. 8, 2025. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times

    Each warhead is more than 20 times more powerful than the atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima on Aug. 6, 1945, which resulted in the deaths of 140,000 people.

    Butcher, a former Montana legislator, recalled a period of nuclear brinkmanship based on the principle of mutually assured destruction when the Minuteman missile first arrived on the family ranch.

    This was during the peak of the Cold War, following the Cuban Missile Crisis, which brought the United States and Soviet Union closer to nuclear war than ever before.

    Everyone was anxious about a potential nuclear exchange, Butcher recalled, and “duck and cover” drills were routine in schools.

    Despite the context, Butcher adapted to living near the missile. He never truly feared a nuclear attack on “Missile Country.”

    Logic told him that the Minuteman III would be launched long before any Soviet missile could reach its target.

    Butcher, a fifth-generation rancher with 400 to 500 cattle, remarked: “They’d be hitting an empty hole.”

    The 12,000-acre cattle ranch has been in the Butcher family since 1913 when Ed’s grandparents first settled there.

    Missile County

    Fergus County, Montana, approximately the size of New Jersey with a population of 11,772, is home to 52 operational nuclear missile silos. Lewistown serves as the county seat.

    The 341st Missile Wing stationed at Malmstrom Air Force Base  in nearby Cascade County. The base is one of three—located in Montana, Wyoming, and North Dakota—that utilize the Minuteman III land-based missile system.

    Butcher said that he had observed the Minuteman III missile outside the hatch at least once during scheduled maintenance.

    A 341st Missile Wing Inspector General team member inspects a launch facility recapture exercise during Global Thunder 19 at Malmstrom Air Force Base, Mont., on Oct. 30, 2018. Beau Wade/U.S. Air Force

    “I was counting cows out in the pasture,” and the security gate to the missile silo was open, Butcher said. “One of the cows got inside near the missile.”

    Butcher said he entered  the secure area to fetch his cow. He was immediately confronted by an armed military guard.

    “Sir, you can’t be here,” the soldier said.

    “I own this place,” Butcher responded. “These are my cows.”

    The guard persisted, so Butcher replied, “Then you chase her out.”

    The soldier’s eyes got “really big,” Butcher recalled. “He looked at the cow. He looked at me.”

    “He finally decided it was OK for me to come riding in. He didn’t want to chase after a cow.”

    His father, who was a licensed pilot, would also check on the cattle from the air.

    “He’d always turn before he got to the missile [silo],” Butcher said. “ He didn’t want to be flying over if they decided to set it off. That was the closest thing Dad had for concerns” about nuclear missiles.

    “Other than that, he didn’t care.”

    Three Legs of Deterrence

    The Minuteman III weapon system completes America’s nuclear “triad,” which includes submarine-launched ballistic missiles and strategic bombers.

    The Sentinel ICBM program is set to replace the 400 missiles and 450 launch facilities of the aging Minuteman III weapon system by 2038, providing capabilities until 2075.

    In September 2020, the Air Force awarded Northrop Grumman a contract worth $13.3 billion to design and build the Sentinel program.

    However, on Jan. 18, 2024, the Air Force announced that the project’s costs had reached a critical Nunn-McCurdy breach, which is when initial estimate thresholds are exceeded by 25 percent or more, triggering a review.

    The cost of the Sentinel program is now estimated at $140.9 billion, representing an 81 percent increase from the program’s 2020 budget.

    According to the Nunn-McCurdy review, the command and launch segment accounts for the majority of this cost growth.

    In a statement, the Air Force indicated it is developing a comprehensive plan to restructure the Sentinel program, focusing on the root causes of the breach and establishing a suitable management structure to control costs.

    “Our U.S. nuclear forces are ready, as they have been for decades, to deter our adversaries and respond decisively should deterrence fail,” said Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin in the January 2024 statement.

    Airmen from the 90th Maintenance Group are responsible for maintaining and repairing ICBMs on alert status within the F.E. Warren missile complex, as they are one of three missile bases part of Air Force Global Strike Command, on Dec. 18, 2019. The Minuteman III, on alert at all three bases, replaced the Peacekeeper at F.E. Warren in the 1970s. Senior Airman Abbigayle Williams/U.S. Air Force

    “We face an evolving and complex security environment marked by two major nuclear powers that are strategic competitors and potential adversaries,” Allvin said.

    “While I have confidence in our legacy systems today, it is imperative that we modernize our nuclear Triad. A restructured Sentinel program is essential to ensure we remain best postured to address future threats.”

    Lewistown and Great Falls, 116 miles northwest, will be most affected by the Sentinel project in Montana.

    The project will involve removing all 45 missile alert facilities from the missile fields and building launch centers in at least 24 locations.

    It will include renovating all 450 existing launch facilities to a “like-new” condition.

    The Sentinel project also involves the  construction of 3,100 miles of new utility corridors while using 4,900 miles of existing corridors and easements.

    Read the rest here…

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/27/2025 – 23:25

  • House GOP Could Grant Concealed Carry Reciprocity For 22 Million Gun Owners Nationwide
    House GOP Could Grant Concealed Carry Reciprocity For 22 Million Gun Owners Nationwide

    Authored by Bronson Winslow via American Greatness,

    House Republicans and President Donald Trump are sponsoring legislation to dismantle 50 years of Democrat-led firearm laws that have stifled concealed carry reciprocity in America and unduly burden nearly 22 million gun owners.

    The Constitutional Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act (H.R. 38) is backed by 120 House Republicans and would ensure consistent protections for responsible firearm owners nationwide while still respecting state-level laws and autonomy. President Donald Trump has expressed his strong support and readiness to sign the bill into law if it lands on his desk.

    “Our Second Amendment right does not disappear when we cross invisible state lines, and this commonsense legislation guarantees that,” said North Carolina Rep. Hudson (R).

    “The Constitutional Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act will protect law-abiding citizens’ rights to conceal carry and travel freely between states without worrying about conflicting state codes or onerous civil suits.”

    Much like driver’s licenses, concealed carry permits would be recognized across state lines, with individuals required to adhere to the laws of their destination state. The bill upholds state sovereignty by refraining from imposing a national standard for concealed carry.

    Instead, it ensures reciprocity while respecting each state’s authority to define its own regulations. If enacted, this legislation would empower an estimated 22 million Americans to travel freely without fear of punishment under restrictive laws in states with stringent gun control policies.

    Modern concealed carry permitting first began in Georgia in the 1970s under Democrat Governor Zell Miller. The Georgia permit process quickly gained traction across America, and many states entered into reciprocity agreements to allow residents to travel freely.

    But that wasn’t the case in all states. Numerous blue states began to reject reciprocity with states that fostered strong Second Amendment freedoms—effectively creating a dicey road map for traveling gun owners.

    “At every turn, federal bureaucrats and Washington Democrats are relentlessly trying to undermine the Second Amendment rights of law-abiding Americans,” said Kansas Rep. Tracey Mann (R).

    “Our constitutional rights don’t magically go away when we travel across state lines, no matter how badly states like New York and California wish they would.

    Alongside President Trump, pro-gun advocacy group Gun Owners of America (GOA) has endorsed the legislation, saying, “Congress has the opportunity to deliver the greatest legislative victory for the gun rights movement in a century.”

    “President Trump has already voiced his support. It is simply common sense for Congress to ensure that each state’s concealed carry license is valid in every other state,” said Aidan Johnston, GOA’s Director of Federal Affairs.

    Stop Restriction Overkill

    Many states across the U.S. enforce restrictive laws that hinder concealed carry permit holders from fully exercising their Second Amendment rights. Additionally, states often refuse reciprocity with others they perceive as having insufficient safety standards for issuing permits.

    If enacted, H.R. 38 would prevent states like New York and California from barring law-abiding Americans from Texas or Florida from carrying concealed weapons for self-defense while traveling. However, while the legislation ensures reciprocity between states, it does not override or change the specific gun laws within individual states.

    Yet even with enforced reciprocity, permit holders encounter significant challenges in blue states like New York, California, and Maryland, which enforce restrictive regulations that designate broad areas as “sensitive locations” where concealed carry is prohibited.

    In 2022, the Supreme Court affirmed in the Bruen ruling that every American has the right to carry a firearm for self-defense. However, numerous blue states continued to impose restrictive measures—all while claiming they updated their laws to adhere to Bruen.

    These states continue to restrict concealed carry in locations such as casinos, public libraries, museums, bars, and restaurants serving alcohol, entertainment venues, and even on private property without explicit consent—making concealed carry a nightmare even if nationwide reciprocity becomes a reality.

    Moving Forward

    The Constitutional Concealed Carry Act showcases the Trump administration’s willingness to assist law-abiding gun owners after four years of persecution under former President Joe Biden. However, it is only the beginning of what must be a broader effort to fully restore the freedoms the Left has strategically stolen from Americans.

    As we look ahead to President Trump’s second term, it is crucial for the Supreme Court, lower courts, Congress, and state governments to reevaluate restrictive firearm laws, particularly those that unjustly designate vast areas as “sensitive locations” to undermine concealed carry rights.

    President Trump has already expressed his commitment to signing this legislation, but this cannot be the end of the conversation. It must serve as the foundation for a larger movement to dismantle laws that unfairly hinder law-abiding citizens and to return power back to the people.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/27/2025 – 22:35

  • How Widespread Is Holocaust Denialism?
    How Widespread Is Holocaust Denialism?

    On this day, January 27, 1945 – 80 years ago today – the Auschwitz concentration camp was liberated by Soviet forces.

    At this milestone, with adult survivors of the Holocaust approaching 100 years of age, Holocaust remembrance is at a crossroads, as the generation which bore witness to the horrors of the Shoah is shrinking in size and forces denying or diminishing it grow more fierce.

    Infographic: Number of Adult Holocaust Survivors Dwindles | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reports that a new survey by the Anti-Defamation League shows that 4 percent globally deny today that the Holocaust happened.

    This number was 5 percent among men and 5 percent among people between the ages of 18 and 49.

    Infographic: How Widespread Is Holocaust Denialism? | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    While in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, rates of Holocaust denialism were average, they were elevated in North Africa and the Middle East.

    They were at below-average rates in Western Europe (1 percent of respondents).

    However, many more respondents said they believed that the number of victims of the Holocaust had been greatly exaggerated.

    This reached as high as a third of respondents in North Africa and the Middle East, 18 percent in Asia, 16 percent each in Eastern Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa and even 15 percent in the Americas.

    The survey also asked respondents if they agreed with any out of 11 stereotypes about Jewish people and asked questions about the acceptance or rejection of Israel. It found that people had especially strong antisemitic beliefs in the Magreb states and the Middle East, but also in Russia, Indonesia, Malaysia and Turkey.

    The survey found that younger people were more likely to show antisemitic attitudes.

    While the average country scored 26 out of 100 points in the survey in 2014 (with 100 being the worst result), this had changed to an average score of 46 out of 100 in 2024.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/27/2025 – 22:10

  • Jim Acosta To Leave CNN After 18 Years: Report
    Jim Acosta To Leave CNN After 18 Years: Report

    Jim Acosta, CNN‘s heckler-in-chief during Trump’s first term, is out at the network according to multiple reports, including from his former CNN colleague, Oliver Darcy.

    On Monday night, Darrcy said Acosta plans to leave the network after CEO Mark Thompson removed him from his 10 a.m. slot, which came after Thompson reportedly asked Acosta to anchor a graveyard shift show from 12 a.m. to 2 a.m.

    According to Darcy at Status News;

    Jim Acosta is expected to exit CNN.

    The anchor, I’m told, signaled to associates in private conversations over the weekend that he intends to depart the network after its chief executive, Mark Thompson, booted him from the morning programming lineup — a move that conspicuously coincided with Donald Trump’s return to power.

    CNN brass, as we first reported earlier this month, decided to strip Acosta of his 10am show, which he has anchored to great ratings success over the last 11 months, at times even seeing higher viewership than programs in the channel’s prime time bloc. Acosta was instead offered the less-than-desirable option of anchoring a show from midnight until 2am ET. CNN pitched the gig to Acosta as anchoring during prime time on the West Coast and said he could move to Los Angeles to host the program. But the reality is the program would have aired at a time in which cable news viewership is at its lowest levels.

    As Fox News reported several days ago, the 10 AM slot previously occupied by Acosta’s show is now being replaced with “The Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer and Pamela Brown,” while the move to midnight was viewed as a ‘sacrifice of sorts’ to Acosta’s longtime nemesis, President Donald Trump. While CNN has changed its scheduling several times in the last few years, this marks the first time that Acosta’s name has not been included.

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    “They want to get rid of Acosta to throw a bone to Trump,” a source told Darcy. “Midnight is not a serious offer when his ratings are among the best on the network.”

    Acosta gained notoriety as CNN’s White House Correspondent during the first Trump Administration. He repeatedly asked loaded, combative questions of President Trump, with tensions peaking during a briefing where Acosta got into a brief physical confrontation with a female White House intern. Acosta’s White House press credentials were briefly revoked following the incident.

    Remember when Acosta pulled this dick move?

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/27/2025 – 22:00

  • Medicare Isn't Broke – Yet
    Medicare Isn’t Broke – Yet

    Authored by Lawrence Wilson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Medicare has a money problem. Or it will in about 10 years. It’s the sort of problem Dwight Eisenhower might have called important but not urgent, like a balloon payment on a mortgage or a roof that only leaks once in a while. Such problems are easy to ignore until it’s too late to fix them.

    Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock

    Yet anything costing $1 trillion a year will inevitably become urgent soon enough, and Medicare’s funding shortfall will demand attention and action by 2036 to prevent a crisis.

    That’s when the Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund, which pays hospital bills for 68 million Americans, will be depleted, according to Medicare’s trustees. After that, the annual income for Medicare Part A will fall 11 percent short of expenses.

    But that’s a decade away. For now, the HI Trust Fund has a surplus of more than $200 billion, according to the latest report. And Medicare Part B, which covers things such as doctor visits and diagnostic tests, had reserves of over $180 billion.

    Medicare is not insolvent, but there is an increasingly large gap between the revenue generated by the program and its total expenses. And that requires an increasingly large transfer of cash from the U.S. Treasury to make the program work.

    In 2023, revenue coming into Medicare through payroll taxes, premiums, and interest covered about 57 percent of the program’s expenses. The other 43 percent, about $43 billion, had to be paid from the government’s general fund. This gap between income and expenses has always existed, but it’s growing rapidly. By 2053, the general fund will have to cover fully half of program costs.

    President Donald Trump, like former President Joe Biden before him, has promised to protect Medicare, though neither articulated a plan for doing so.

    Medicare, which will have its 60th birthday in July, chugged along for decades without attracting much attention. Why is it now falling further and further behind expenses?

    That’s partly due to the way Medicare was designed, and it’s partly a result of changing demographics, American innovation, and decisions that were made along the way.

    It’s Not a Business

    Medicare provides medical care for people who are age 65 and older, or disabled, or have end-state renal disease or ALS, also known as Lou Gehrig’s disease.

    Medicare is called an insurance program but it wasn’t designed to be fully self-sustaining. It has always operated more like a federally subsidized health payment program.

    Medicare Part A, which pays for hospitalization, is the most like traditional insurance and the closest to being financially stable. The lion’s share of funding for Part A comes from a 2.9 percent payroll tax. The rest comes from a tax on Social Security benefits, interest on the fund balance, and premiums paid by some beneficiaries.

    It’s a mistake to think of the HI Trust Fund as an endowment or a pension, according to Jon Kingsdale, an adjunct associate professor of health care policy at Brown University.

    “It’s simply like a checking account, which is filled up by payroll taxes throughout the year and is drawn down by spending for hospitals and nursing homes and other facilities,” Kingsdale told The Epoch Times.

    Like a checking account, the HI Trust Fund can reach a zero balance. The trustees predict that will happen in 2036. After that, the income it receives will cover only about 79 percent of Part A obligations.

    Medicare Part B is a little different. Its expenses are paid through the Medicare Supplemental Medical Insurance (SMI) Trust Fund, as are expenses for Medicare Part D, prescription drug coverage.

    People who qualify for Medicare can opt into Parts B and D by paying a premium. Part B also receives some income from interest on the fund balance, and states contribute to support Part D.

    But that income covers only a fraction of the expenses. More than 70 percent of the funding for the SMI Trust fund comes from the general budget. Every year, Congress estimates upcoming expenses, then adds money to cover the gap.

    Increases in premiums have not kept pace with expenses, so the share paid by the general fund has grown larger.

    When the HI Trust Fund is depleted, it will cause an urgent problem because the government currently has no legal mechanism for adding more money to it. But the larger issue is that the primary funding sources for Medicare are not keeping pace with rising costs, requiring the government to pay a larger and larger share of the nation’s wealth to keep the program going.

    Medicare now consumes about 3.8 percent of the country’s gross domestic product, the total value of all goods and services produced. By 2048 it will be 5.8 percent, according to the Medicare trustees.

    Three main factors are driving that.

    Senior citizen Yoko Mitani waits for her prescription at Ballin Pharmacy in Chicago on May 3, 2004. Enrollment for the Medicare Drug Benefit program offering discounts on prescription drugs for senior citizens was made available today. Tim Boyle/Getty Images

    Demographics, Innovation, Medicare Advantage

    Two population events coincided in the 20th century that resulted in financial pressure on Medicare. First, the 76 million baby boomers who were born between 1946 and 1964. They started to retire in 2011. That caused Medicare enrollment, which had been growing by about 500,000 a year, to add 1.3 million beneficiaries a year for the next 14 years.

    Additionally, long before the baby boomers signed up for Medicare, the birth rate fell significantly. Americans have gone from having 123 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44 at the height of the baby boom to having 56.1 births per 1,000 by 2022.

    Taken together, those events created a situation in which fewer workers are paying the Medicare payroll tax compared with the number of people receiving benefits. When the program was created in 1965, the ratio of workers to beneficiaries was 4 to 1. Today it’s 2.8 to 1 and will continue to decrease through 2040.

    The rise in obesity, addiction, diabetes, and other chronic illnesses costs all Americans, including Medicare beneficiaries, more now. Americans spent about $8,500 per person, adjusted for inflation, on health care in 2000. Today the amount is more than $14,500.

    The second factor in the cost of Medicare is innovation in the health care industry. Medicare pays for far more diagnostic tools and treatments than it did in 1965, including things such as CT scans, MRIs, and joint replacement surgery. But the biggest recent cost increase has come from prescription drugs, which were not covered by Medicare until 2006. By 2022, prescription drugs accounted for 14 percent of all Medicare spending.

    A third factor is Medicare Part C, or Medicare Advantage. That’s an optional program started in 1997 to allow private insurance companies to manage benefits for Medicare beneficiaries.

    People who opt into Medicare Advantage continue to pay their Part B premium to Medicare. Then the government pays the insurer a lump sum to pay for their treatment. An analysis by KFF, a health policy research group, found that Medicare Advantage cost $321 per year more per enrolled beneficiary than traditional Medicare did in 2019. That amounted to $7 billion.

    Now, more than half of Medicare’s 68 million beneficiaries are enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans.

    Read the rest here…

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/27/2025 – 21:45

  • Scott Bessent Confirmed As Treasury Secretary, Pushes For Gradual Universal Tariffs Up To 20%
    Scott Bessent Confirmed As Treasury Secretary, Pushes For Gradual Universal Tariffs Up To 20%

    Late on Monday, the Senate confirmed Scott Bessent’s nomination for Treasury Secretary in a 68–29 vote, putting him in a key role in implementing President Trump’s tariff and growth agenda. The billionaire investor will be spearheading Trump’s plan of cutting taxes and curbing deficits, while putting forward a tariff plan that also facilitates growth.

    The Senate Finance Committee approved Bessent’s nomination for Treasury Secretary on a 16-11 vote, with two Democrats—Sens. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) and Mark Warner (D-Va.)—joining Republicans. Democrats who opposed his nomination alluded to concerns about his tax dispute with the IRS.

    “Like a lot of Wall Street titans, he’s opted out of paying a fair share into Medicare,” said Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), ranking member on the committee.

    Bessent has previously said the U.S. faces economic calamity if Congress does not renew key provisions from Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that are set to expire Dec. 31, 2025. According to the Epoch Times, negotiating the extension of those tax cuts will be one of Bessent’s major responsibilities even as he pushes for 3 percent annual growth, significant trims to deficits, and increasing domestic oil production by 3 million barrels a day.

    Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) described the Wall Street veteran as an “example of the American dream in action.”

    “He brings a wealth of private sector experience in the economy and markets to his new role, as well as the concern for the needs of working Americans,” Thune said on the Senate floor.

    Senate Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) defended Bessent before the vote, saying that the Key Square Group founder has complied with tax laws.

    Many Democrats, naturally, disagreed. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), one of the Democrats who voted against Trump’s pick to lead the Treasury Department,  called it a “double standard in America” during an executive committee hearing on Jan. 21.

    Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said Bessent’s nomination further highlights billionaires’ influence on U.S. politics. “Billionaires dominate the American economy, and Republicans plan to give them more tax breaks,” she said.

    In his Jan. 16 confirmation hearing in front of the committee, Bessent discussed various economic issues. Bessent has expressed how critical it is to extend the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), President Donald Trump’s signature legislation from his first term in the White House.

    Sitting before the Senate Finance Committee during his Jan. 16 confirmation hearing, the Wall Street veteran told lawmakers that allowing the TCJA to expire would cause “an economic calamity” and lead to “financial instability.” “We will see a gigantic middle-class tax increase. We will see the child tax credit halved,“ Bessent said. ”We will see the deductions halved … it has the potential for a sudden stop.”

    Contrary to his most recent hedge fund letter, the billionaire financier now also supports the president’s tariff plans. He highlighted the various benefits associated with trade levies, such as strengthening the U.S. dollar, forcing foreign manufacturers to export deflation, and nudging consumers to change their preferences to support American jobs.

    And speaking of flipflopping, exactly one year after he wrote in his KeySquare letter to investors that he found it “unlikely that across-the-board tariffs, as currently reported by the media, would be enacted”, the FT reported that Bessent is now pushing for new universal tariffs on US imports to start at 2.5% and rise gradually.

    The 2.5% levy would move higher by the same amount each month, the people familiar with it said, giving businesses time to adjust and countries the chance to negotiate with the US president’s administration.

    The levies could be pushed up to as high as 20 per cent — in line with Trump’s maximalist position on the campaign trail last year. But a gradual introduction would be more moderate than the immediate action some countries feared.

    The proposal by Bessent comes as Trump’s team debates how to implement tariff plans, with the president escalating his tariff rhetoric on Monday in a speech in Florida, threatening more duties on semiconductors, metals and pharmaceutical goods.

    “We have to bring production back to our country,” Trump said.

    Trump was speaking after a day of turmoil in US stock markets, triggered by a tech sell-off as China appeared to make a leap ahead of the US in the global artificial intelligence race. His threat to impose tariffs on semiconductors entering the US would be difficult to carry out given the impact on tech companies relying on chipmakers such as Taiwan’s TSMC.

    In contrast, Bessent’s plan would see just 2.5% added to tariffs each month. According to the FT, it was unclear if the Treasury secretary had convinced other central stakeholders, including Howard Lutnick, Trump’s pick for commerce secretary, to adopt his proposal for a gradual introduction of tariffs.

    Meanwhile, Trump has threatened to force tariffs of up to 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico as soon as this weekend, and in recent days threatened Colombia with 25% tariffs in a dispute over deportees. That said, an FT source said that Trump’s thinking said he was weighing different options. “There is not a single plan the president is ready to decide on yet.”

    When asked by reporters last week whether he planned to introduce universal tariffs, Trump replied: “We may. But we’re not ready for that yet.”

    We may not be there yet, but we will be there soon, especially if Trump follows through on his urging to abolish income tax altogether, which implies that tariffs would need to somehow generate similar amounts of revenue. In that case a 20% universal tariff is just the start.

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/27/2025 – 21:20

  • Missouri Takes CCP To Court For $25 Billion Over Hoarding Of COVID-19 Protective Equipment
    Missouri Takes CCP To Court For $25 Billion Over Hoarding Of COVID-19 Protective Equipment

    Authored by Melanie Sun via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will be on trial in Missouri on Jan. 27 after the state sued over damages sustained as a result of its actions during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Andrew Bailey during the 2024 Conservative Political Action Conference the Gaylord National Convention Center in Fort Washington, Maryland, Thursday, Feb. 22, 2024. Photo by Dominic Gwinn / Middle East Images / Middle East Images via AFP

    “We’re hauling China into court to hold them accountable for unleashing COVID-19 on the world,” state Attorney General Andrew Bailey said in a press release, Gray Media local affiliate KAIT8 reported.

    It said that Bailey is scheduled to appear in federal district court in Cape Girardeau for the trial.

    Missouri will be the first state to sue the CCP and its relevant entities over actions it says allowed COVID-19 to spread globally.

    Bailey’s office said it will seek $25 billion in damages for actions it says caused significant loss of life and economic disruptions in Missouri and harmed its citizens.

    “Missouri v. China is truly a landmark case, as we seek $25 billion in damages,” Bailey said. “We won a key victory in this case last year, so we’re feeling confident heading into trial.”

    Bailey filed the lawsuit in federal district court in 2020 during the pandemic. Bailey’s office sought damages for the CCP’s cover up of critical information about human-to-human spread of the virus inside China and for hoarding personal protective equipment.

    None of the China-based defendants named in the lawsuit responded, though briefs were filed by Lawyers for Upholding International Law and The China Society of Private International Law to defend China.

    The CCP dismissed any factual or legal basis for the lawsuit, which it called “very absurd.”

    The case was dismissed by the district court judge, who ruled that the defendants were immune under the 1976 Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act (FSIA), which generally prohibits lawsuits against foreign states in U.S. courts. Upon appeal to a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit, Missouri’s case was revived in January 2024 but only for the state’s claims regarding the hoarding of personal protective equipment.

    The panel ruled that part of the lawsuit as an antitrust claim that fell under the statutory exception related to commercial activity by foreign states.

    The state must now prove that the CCP and the other named China-based entities hoarded personal protective equipment, and that the direct effect of this caused harm to Missouri and its citizens.

    The CCP is not expected to have a representative in court, which could make a default judgment in Missouri’s favor easier to achieve, facing no cross-examination or rebuttals from China.

    Critics of the case have called it a stunt aimed at publicly placing blame on the CCP for the COVID-19 pandemic. Some legal experts have also warned that the case could set a risky precedent to see foreign governments allow plaintiffs to sue the United States in tribunals around the world.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/27/2025 – 20:55

  • House Republicans Huddle With Trump At Miami Resort
    House Republicans Huddle With Trump At Miami Resort

    House Republicans are gathering at President Trump’s National Doral in Miami, Florida this week for their annual policy retreat, where they will golf, talk shop, and listen to Donald Trump deliver an expected address on Monday.

    Former President Donald Trump and his motorcade arrive at Trump National Doral Miami on Monday, June 12, 2023, in Doral, Fla. MATIAS J. OCNER

    According to The Hill, House GOP leaders have already indicated that they’ll be discussing Trump’s legislative agenda – which includes an extension of his 2017 tax cuts, tackling inflation through energy policy, and securing the southern US border. Republicans are looking to try and move the agenda in a single bill through the budget reconciliation process vs. splitting it into two pieces as some Republicans had hoped for.

    Reconciliation carries the threat of a Democratic filibuster in the Senate, but can be used only once or twice in a year – and will need near-unanimous support from GOP Senators. That said, balancing Trump’s agenda with demands from fiscal hawks that the legislation be neutral, or even reduce the deficit.

    “We’ve got a math problem,” said Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC), a fiscal hawk who’s gunning for more than $2 trillion in cuts. “Let’s put the math on the board, and let’s go about it agency by agency.”

    This week’s policy retreat, which starts Monday afternoon and ends Wednesday morning, is slated to have a number of meetings among members about what policies to include in the bill and how to offset their cost.

    While members expect the final details will not be complete for weeks, Republicans will soon have to make a decision about the broad topline number expected in their proposal in order to tee up the legislative vehicle for the Trump agenda reconciliation bill. GOP leaders hope to pass that budget resolution by the end of February. –The Hill

    Meanwhile, Republicans will need to come up with a game plan for the debt ceiling, which Trump has demanded they do without giving Democrats leverage.

    That may prove more difficult than Trump envisions, as the aforementioned fiscal hawks want steep spending cuts that Democrats will lose their shit over, as they always do.

    One idea being floated by Republicans is to include a debt limit increase in a package that would pair regular government funding and wildfire aid, in the hopes that the disaster relief would entice a sufficient number of Democrats to make up for GOP hardliner opposition.

    That said, when asked on Thursday if Democrats could support a debt ceiling hike attached to wildfire aid for California, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) said “It’s a nonstarter.”

    Also last week, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) told The Hill that the decision on how to handle the debt limit could be made at this week’s retreat.

    “There are a number of ideas on the table we’re talking about,” said Johnson, when asked about addressing the debt limit via reconciliation or attaching it to wildfire aid. “We’re taking all the House Republicans to a big retreat early next week down in Florida, and we’ll finalize all those decisions.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/27/2025 – 20:30

  • Federal Agencies Made Over $161 Billion In Improper Payments Last Year: Watchdog
    Federal Agencies Made Over $161 Billion In Improper Payments Last Year: Watchdog

    Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The U.S. government made billions of dollars worth of improper payments in the most recent fiscal year, with several agencies found to be non-compliant with regulations on the matter, according to a recent report from the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO).

    The U.S. Capitol building in Washington on Jan. 9, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

    “Since fiscal year 2003, executive branch agencies have reported cumulative improper payment estimates of about $2.8 trillion, including $161.5 billion for fiscal year 2024,” the Jan. 23 report from the agency read.

    An improper payment is one made by the government that “should not have been made or was made in an incorrect amount,” including duplicate payments, money sent to ineligible recipients, and payments made for goods or services not received.

    The $161 billion is enough to buy over 380,000 homes in the United States, according to median home sales price data tracked by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. It is lower than the $236 billion in improper payments estimated to have been made by federal agencies in fiscal year 2023. Annual improper payments have remained above the $150 billion level since 2019.

    The Payment Integrity Information Act of 2019 (PIIA) mandates that agencies identify risks related to improper payments and take corrective actions, while also reporting improper payments within the programs they administer.

    GAO found that 10 agencies under the Chief Financial Officers Act were “noncompliant with PIIA criteria for fiscal year 2022.”

    The 10 agencies are the Departments of Agriculture, Defense, Education, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Labor, Treasury, Veterans Affairs, and Small Business Administration.

    Out of the 10, nine were found to be noncompliant with the PIIA criteria for one or more programs or activities for two consecutive years—fiscal years 2021 and 2022. The only exemption was the Department of Homeland Security.

    When an agency has been noncompliant for two consecutive years for the same activity or program, they are required to submit proposals on how they plan to become compliant with the PIIA.

    These proposals are to be submitted to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). According to GAO, OMB is expected to provide guidance on the matter in the development of the fiscal year 2026 President’s Budget.

    GAO recommended the director of OMB clarify that agencies not in compliance with PIIA explicitly state in their annual financial statements that they will come into compliance.

    Before the GAO report was released, a draft version was submitted to OMB for review and comment. OMB agreed with GAO’s recommendations, without providing any comments on the report.

    DOGE

    The GAO report comes as President Donald Trump signed an executive order on his first day in office announcing the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative seeking to modernize federal technology and software “to maximize governmental efficiency and productivity.” The U.S. Digital Service has been renamed as the U.S. DOGE Service (USDS).

    According to the order, a temporary organization called the U.S. DOGE Service Temporary Organization is to be set up with a lifespan of around 18 months, headed by the USDS administrator. The organization “shall be dedicated to advancing the President’s 18-month DOGE agenda.”

    The order mandates every government agency to establish a DOGE team, which coordinates with the USDS and advises agency heads on implementing the DOGE agenda.

    The DOGE venture has already attracted opposition, with four lawsuits being filed against it on Jan. 20 by several groups at a court in Washington.

    One complaint was filed by a coalition of associations including the American Public Health Association, American Federation of Teachers, Minority Veterans of America, and the Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington.

    A second lawsuit was filed by the Center for Biological Diversity, a third by the National Security Counselors, and a fourth one by consumer watchdog group Public Citizen.

    Kieran Suckling, executive director of the Center for Biological Diversity, alleged that DOGE will attempt to remove federal protections “for our air, water, and most imperiled wildlife.”

    Earlier on Jan. 14, Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), a founding member of the DOGE Caucus, introduced a bill aimed at making the government more efficient.

    “The American people gave Washington a mandate in November—waste less, save more. Today, I’m introducing a first set of bills to follow through on their mandate by prioritizing streamlined regulations, rulemaking, and record keeping. It’s time to put government waste in the doghouse and let DOGE get to work,” the lawmaker said.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/27/2025 – 20:05

  • Iran's IRGC Confirms Purchase Of Russian Advanced Sukhoi-35 Jets In First
    Iran’s IRGC Confirms Purchase Of Russian Advanced Sukhoi-35 Jets In First

    The Islamic Republic appears to be gearing up for four years of the new Trump administration, as the US President carries a big stick but has also vowed to wind-down war hot spots around the world, particularly in Gaza and Ukraine.

    Already, one big geopolitical result of US sanctions related to the Ukraine war has been to push Moscow and Tehran into a closer security relationship, which has seen Iranian suicide drones used with regularity on the Ukraine battlefield, and even reports of ballistic missile transfers (officially denied by Tehran).

    But on Monday Reuters and other agencies have cited a senior Revolutionary Guards Commander (IRGC) to say Iran has purchased Russian-made Sukhoi-35 fighter jets.

    Source: Russian military/Shutterstock.com

    Never before have the Iranians confirmed the purchase of advanced Su-35 jets, though for years it’s been well-known that they have significant Russian military equipment.

    “Whenever necessary, we make military purchases to strengthen our air, land and naval forces… The production of military equipment has also accelerated,” the deputy Coordinator of the Khatam-ol-Anbia Central Headquarters announced in a statement.

    “If the enemy acts foolishly, it will taste the bitter taste of being hit by our missiles, and none of its interests in the Occupied Territories will remain safe,” Shadmani continued in reference to Iran’s archnemesis Israel.

    Iran has been forced to retreat from post-Assad Syria, and its proxy Hezbollah has suffered devastating losses, especially the death last year of Secretary-General Hussein Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike, which was the single biggest blow yet.

    As for the new jets, it’s unclear whether these transfers have taken place yet, or how many have been ordered. Russia has seen its trade and defense relationship strengthened with non-aligned and especially so-called pariah states like North Korea and Iran.

    Reports commonly estimate that Iran’s Air Force only possesses a few dozen strike aircraft which already includes some older Russian jets as well as very aged American jets which were acquired before the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

    Crucially this comes in the wake of last-year’s unprecedented tit-for-tat exchange of missile and drones strikes between Iran and Israel. 

    Neither side ultimately disclosed the true extent of damage or possible casualties from the exchanges which were related do soaring Gaza tensions, and the fact that Iran is a big supporter of anti-Israel proxies Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi Shia paramilitary organizations.

    Trump has also vowed ‘maximum pressure’ against Iran, so no doubt this a potential near-future confrontation with Washington is big on the minds of the Ayatollah and his IRGC commanders.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/27/2025 – 19:40

  • Activism, Uncensored: A Clash Of Inauguration Protests
    Activism, Uncensored: A Clash Of Inauguration Protests

    Authored by Ford Fischer & Matt Taibbi via Racket News,

    An accidental street collision in 1981 caused “You got your chocolate in my peanut butter,” which in turn launched the Reese’s Peanut Butter cup. In January, 2025? “I love abortions!” met “Fuck Antifa!” on the streets of Washington, creating God Knows What, but the 25 minutes of ensuing News2Share coverage by Ford Fischer’s crew sure were interesting.

    There are too many eyebrow-raising moments in this reel to comment upon properly, but one piece of dialogue involving a fully masked protester (no spoilers! I won’t say which movement) stood out:

    Q: So you’re standing today in Malcolm X park with a giant guillotine. Tell me about the intent behind that?

    A: Um… what I’ll say is that it’s art and it’s open to intepretation. It’s subjective. I certainly have my own reasons. Um, there’s people I care about who are in jeopardy, who are probably going to lose their rights to exist how they would like to, to love how they would like to, to be who they are meant to be. But this, this is a real symbol.

    COME GET SUM: “It’s open to interpretation.”

    There are other scenes about which one probably shouldn’t make light, but either way, this effort to capture both sides of last week’s inauguration demonstrations is another sterling contribution in Ford’s growing library of for-posterity video reels. This era needs nonjudgmental eyes in all directions, and News2Share continues to let images of key moments do the talking.

    Subscribe to Racket News

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/27/2025 – 19:15

  • Feds Nab 50 Illegals In Raid On Tren De Aragua Gang's 'Makeshift Nightclub'
    Feds Nab 50 Illegals In Raid On Tren De Aragua Gang’s ‘Makeshift Nightclub’

    In the latest indication that President Trump’s new administration is dead-serious about securing the border and sweeping up those who already waltzed across it, federal agents raided a Sunday morning party in Denver on and nabbed nearly 50 illegal aliens, including members of the notorious Venezuelan Tren de Aragua (TdA) gang.   

    The congregation of gang-related revelers made for an inviting target — rather than picking up two or three border-violators at a time, the party at an abandoned warehouse served up dozens of suspects on a single platter. Officials described the site as a “makeshift nightclub” and said the event was only open to invited guests. Around 3 am on a frigid Denver night, armed agents crashed the party, including members of the DEA, ATF, Homeland Security, and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

    DEA and other federal agents crash an invite-only “makeshift nightclub” in Denver around 3am on Sunday (DEA photo)

    “TdA affiliated gang members and associates sent out invitations over social media to come to a party at this location tonight,” DEA Special Agent in Charge Jonathan Pullen told Denver7, noting that the warehouse on the 6600 block of Federal Boulevard on Denver’s north side has been used for large parties over the past several months. In video posted by the DEA’s Rocky Mountain office, ICE agents are seen processing the partygoers in the bitter conditions, presumably seeking to identify them and confirm which individuals are in the country illegally:   

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    Denver already had an infamous association with TdA, thanks to jarring video images from last August that showed gang members roaming an apartment complex, wielding rifles and pistols. Multiple complexes in and around Denver were reportedly under various extents of domination by the gang, and local government officials have since intervened, seeking closures of some, while seizing others and putting them under new management. It’s not clear who owns the warehouse that’s been serving as a TdA party palace — neighbors can only hope for an enterprising Denver commercial real estate broker to find a higher and better use for the joint. 

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    In addition to the busload of illegals, Feds said they confiscated weapons, money and drugs — including cocaine, crack and “Tusi,” also known as “pink cocaine.” That latter, novel drug is rising to nationwide prominence thanks in large part to TdA, the New York Post has reported. A Chicago Police Department memo described pink cocaine as “a mixture of several drugs [that] can vary between different narcotics, e.g., Ecstasy, Amphetamines, LSD, or other synthetic drugs.” It retails for at least $100 a gram on the street, according to a Post federal law enforcement source.  

    Feds seized drugs including “tusi” or “pink cocaine,” a multi-drug compound that TdA is popularizing across the country  (DEA file photo)

    Trump promised swift action in rounding up illegal immigrants, and his first week in office has delivered a flurry of high-profile, high-yield raids in cities across the country, including Buffalo, Los Angeles, New York City and Chicago. We’ve also seen the commencement of military aircraft hauling captured illegals south. In a Sunday appearance on ABC’s This Week, Trump “border czar” Tom Homan told Martha Raddatz that this is only the beginning, with the pace only rising from here:

    “You’re going to see the numbers steadily increase — the number of arrests nationwide — as we open up the aperture. Right now it’s concentrated on public safety threats, national security threats. That’s a smaller population. So we’re going to do this on a priority basis, as President Trump has promised, but as that aperture opens, there’ll be more arrests nationwide.” 

    Evidencing that prioritization of public safety and national security threats, the White House on Sunday boasted about multiple illegal-alien apprehensions that happened across the United States last week. They include: 

    Ideally, they’ll soon be on outbound aircraft, so their home countries may be “enriched” by their presence.

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/27/2025 – 18:50

  • Trump & His New Frenemies, Abroad And At Home
    Trump & His New Frenemies, Abroad And At Home

    Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

    President Trump recently gave a video talk to the World Economic Forum (WEF) assemblage in Davos.

    He expressed fondness for Europe. He praised many for their attendance – and then tore into the evils of hyperregulation, high taxes, radical environmentalism, and the DEI/ESG commissariat of both the prior Biden administration and indeed the European Union.

    One might have thought the attendees’ heads would have exploded when Trump referred to oil as “liquid gold.”

    And he topped that by referring to the venerated Green New Deal as the “Green New Scam.”

    “I terminated the ridiculous and incredibly wasteful Green New Deal—I call it the ‘Green New Scam,’ withdrew from the one-sided Paris Climate Accord, and ended the insane and costly electric vehicle mandate.”

    But then a strange thing happened.

    The questions from international bankers and financiers that followed were not all that critical. In fact, one could characterize them as curious and carefully encouraging.

    So, what prompts the polite European reception to such green and economic heresy?

    A careful hearing of Trump’s entire speech would reveal it was not confrontational as much as aspirational. He was trying to envision a new European partnership—albeit one under American leadership.

    “Under our leadership, America is back and open for business . . . So, you know I’m trying to be constructive because I love Europe. I love the countries of Europe.”

    The U.S. economy has grown to nearly twice the size of the European Union’s since its inception more than two decades ago. Indeed, over 20 years, the gross domestic product of both was roughly comparable.

    European energy costs are constantly soaring, especially given radical green restrictionism and the disruption of the Ukraine War.

    There is further European recognition that their economies, like those of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, hinge on American policies, economic, cultural, and social—and especially access to U.S. markets and consumers.

    In this regard, Biden’s hard pivot to green globalism, fiery rhetoric about eliminating internal combustion engines, natural gas, and gasoline fuels, coupled with woke/DEI policies, proved not just disastrous at home; it also weakened the position of Euro realists abroad.

    During the Biden years, Western allies abroad felt they had to fall in line with a strange, quirky new America.

    Under Biden, the U.S. seemed to rush well leftward of even Europe—undermining European traditionalists, free-marketers, and economic and cultural conservatives who had been slowly gaining ascendance.

    The wounded European money people at Davos were essentially saying to Trump that socialism may be an affordable, temporary boutique diversion in traditional capitalist America. But in an already inert, static, neo-socialist Europe, such an American hard shift to the left has proved disastrous.

    So, it was in such a Davos moment that the global financial grandees were politely stunned at Trump’s call for a new golden age of American-led, freer market capitalism.

    He promised not just to ensure lower interest rates, fiscal sobriety, fewer regulations, lower taxes, smaller government, and less state intervention in the economy, secure borders, and an end to illegal immigration. He went further to promise that these methods would ensure greater Western prosperity, security, and freedom, both American and European.

    Trump trashed past American censorship, political orthodoxies, deficit spending, inflation, and high interest. He summed up the Biden four-year detour as culpable and wrongheaded.

    “President Biden totally lost control of what was going on in our country.”

    Stranger still, Trump located his pitch in ecumenical terms—of a strong U.S. seeking to help Europe reemerge to fulfill its natural potential.

    Indeed, it was past time for the proverbial American and European “West” to stick together in a dangerous economic world of Chinese mercantilism, Russian aggression, and a new political and military axis of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—with countries like India and Turkey keen to see which alignment comes out on top.

    Most of the bankers at Davos, in fact, wished Trump to double down on his promises.

    Patrick Pouyanné, CEO of TotalEnergies, was not worried about Trump’s grandiose plans to expand fossil fuel production. Instead, his concern was only whether Trump could guarantee Europe could buy lots of his gas.

    When he asked Trump point-blank whether he would honor his promise to ship massive amounts of liquid natural gas to Europe, Trump gushed back, “I would make sure that you get it. If we make a deal, we make a deal; you’ll get it.”

    Another European banker apparently was also worried not about too much Trumpism but apparently not enough:

    “We very much welcome your focus on deregulation and reducing bureaucracy. So, my question is: What are your priorities in this regard, and how fast is this going to happen?”

    How fast?

    Trump’s veritable messaging is now something like “Make Europe Great Again” (MEGA)—and most certainly not the old Obama idea that the US is merely one unexceptional nation, equal to all others.

    Nor is Trump’s vision anything like the Biden effort to absorb failed European ideas about taxes, regulation, borders, and energy and then amplify such dreary statism with an American veneer—and boomerang the disastrous agenda back across the Atlantic.

    Instead, the Trump idea is to make Europe and the U.S. both stronger economically and militarily. He wants to supercharge the U.S. economy and offer Europe avenues to join the ride.

    In that regard, Trump’s Davos speech was the foreign policy counterpart to his domestic appeal to tech giants like Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, and the CEOs of Apple, Google, and other Silicon Valley conglomerates.

    Under Biden’s growing statist octopus, its tentacles were starting to reach out and wrap around his once-loyal multibillionaire supporters—in order to strangle them.

    They were always, of course, somewhat uneasy about Biden’s tax increases, redistributionist multi-trillion-dollar deficits, hyperinflation, and resulting high interests.

    But what now terrified them was the increasing candor of the envisioned Biden eight-year agenda. Joe, in his role as a waxen effigy, would supposedly continue the ‘ol’ Joe from Scranton’ cover to facilitate another four years of an even harder Bernie Sanders/Elizabeth Warren/Squad/Obama socialist blueprint.

    In other words, the neo-socialist Biden government would not just take profits from them on the back end with taxes and fees. But now it would also restrict and control on the front end what an entrepreneur would be allowed even to do—and how, when, and where he could innovate to make products and profit as he thought best.

    Implied—and indeed feared—was that an army of thirty-something zealous, know-nothing government ideologues and bureaucrats would divide up business concessions. And they would offer slices of allotments to tech lords, based on their own fealty to the administration and their hard-left credentials.

    So future tech winners and losers would not be determined by talent or market successes but by ideological purity—the usual historical framework where toadies, the mediocre, and the status quo triumph over mavericks, the fearless, and the unorthodox.

    So, finally the tech giants, like the vestigial Euro capitalists, figured that Trump would unleash their animal spirits—and in a way more radically than any prior president.

    The aim would not merely be to enrich them. He would also enlist them to make their countries preeminent in 21st-century globalist arenas such as biotech, artificial intelligence, cryptocurrency, cyberwarfare, drones, and lasers.

    Read Trump’s Davos speech and the subtext is that the only impediment to Western success is Western fear and loathing of it.

    Trump counts on the excitement of a shared adventure to free the West from its crabby naysayers as a moral and uplifting experience far preferable to the current nihilist slouching to statism and stagnation.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/27/2025 – 18:25

  • Pardoned J6 Protestor Says He Has Proof Police Incited Riots At Capitol
    Pardoned J6 Protestor Says He Has Proof Police Incited Riots At Capitol

    Virginia Beach resident Jacob Hiles is a charter boat captain arrested for crimes related to the protests on J6.  He ultimately plead guilty to one misdemeanor count of parading, demonstrating, or picketing in a Capitol building. In exchange for Hiles’ guilty plea, the Department of Justice dropped the remaining three misdemeanor charges against him.  He was given two years probation.

    However, Hiles says there’s a lot more to the story that he could not tell the public until he was officially pardoned by Donald Trump last week. 

    The boat captain tells a local NBC affiliate, WAVY-TV 10 that he has video proof of capitol police acting to incite the riots.  At least 9 minutes of his video is posted to WAVY-TV 10, though it appears to be heavily edited.  

    “I have several videos from Jan. 6 — I have over an hour of video that I shot on Jan. 6…It shows all sorts of things. I have videos that show Capitol Police inciting inciting riots by shooting. They were walking through the crowds with a super soaker-style water gun that was full of bear spray.”

    “I have [on video] a man who who had been sprayed by a Capitol Police officer…I’m standing right beside him and he walks up to the Capitol Police officer and says, ‘Hey, why did you spray me with with pepper spray?’ The guy … said he was a Vietnam veteran and he’s never done anything but serves the country.”

    Not only that, Hiles also asserts that federal agents threatened him with long term imprisonment if he took those videos to the media or posted them to the internet.

    “It was what I was told in August of 2021…And in a Zoom meeting with Brandon Merriman, who is the special agent in charge of Jan. 6, and he’s the guy you saw do the interview about 60 Minutes about Jan. 6.

    In a Zoom meeting with Brandon Merriman in August of 2021, he told me that if I go to the media and start talking about Jan. 6, if my videos find the media or the Internet, that I would, quote, ‘spend the rest of my life in prison.’ I asked for what [and] he said. ‘I’ll find something.’” 

    An attorney for Hiles believes that this exchange with the special agent was recorded, which means it could now be accessed by the Trump Administration. 

    Hiles testimony supports previous claims by J6 protesters that the Capitol Police and federal agents incited the violence by attacking the peaceful protesters with tear gas and rubber bullets.  Video clips from the event taken from body cam footage and protester footage show police engaged in harassing the crowd with munitions well before the protesters attacked the building or the officers.  

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Videos also show police accidentally gassing themselves, which forced them to retreat closer to the building.  Officials originally blamed protester violence for their retreat. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The official J6 narrative reiterated to the public for years was, in fact, a lie.  The tale of an unhinged crowd of “far-right insurrectionists” hellbent on violently disrupting the 2020 elections and spurred on by Donald Trump as a would-be dictator?  That never happened.  It is yet another fallacy added to a long list of fallacies perpetrated by Democrats and establishment bureaucrats to perpetually demonize conservatives, likely as a means to secure election supremacy for years to come. 

    Obviously, they failed. 

    The media and the Biden Administration constructed a house of cards around the same repeated handful of carefully cherry-picked J6 video clips.  They only show what occurred after police had already attacked and enraged protesters.  What they never show is what happened to make the crowd so angry in the first place.  Those videos also don’t show what happened behind the scenes, including the intimidation that was apparently used by federal agents to keep arrested protesters quiet.     

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/27/2025 – 18:00

  • 7 Charged In America's Biggest COVID Tax Credit Fraud Scheme
    7 Charged In America’s Biggest COVID Tax Credit Fraud Scheme

    Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A group of seven who allegedly sought to steal hundreds of millions of dollars in the “largest COVID-19 tax credit scheme” by falsely claiming pandemic-era benefits were charged on Jan. 22, according to the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ).

    The Department of Justice in Washington on Jan. 9, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

    An indictment unsealed in New York charged the seven people with “operating a multi-state conspiracy in which they attempted to defraud the United States of more than $600 million by filing more than 8,000 false tax returns claiming COVID-19-related employment tax credits,” the agency said in a statement. The fraud targeted programs like employee retention credit (ERC) and paid sick and family leave credit (SFLC), which were passed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

    The ERC gave tax credits to businesses, incentivizing them to keep employees on their payroll, while SFLC was a reimbursement made to businesses for paying employees “on sick or family leave and could not work because of COVID-19.”

    The charges were made against Keith Williams, Jamari Lewis, Morais Dicks, Janine Davis, Tiffany Williams, James Hames Jr., and Ewendra Mathurin; all of whom are either current or former residents of New York.

    Between November 2021 and June 2023, the defendants “repeatedly exploited” ERC and SFLC programs, the DOJ said. “The scheme was allegedly headquartered at Credit Reset, a purported credit repair business Keith Williams owned and operated.”

    The defendants acted as tax preparers and allegedly filed over 8,000 fake employment tax returns on behalf of themselves and clients, claiming COVID tax credits from the IRS. In some of the fake returns, they allegedly claimed SFLC which exceeded reported wages, according to the department.

    The defendants managed to secure refund checks from the Treasury, while also profiting by charging clients a fee or percentage of the tax refunds they received, the agency accused.

    “The defendants allegedly concealed their preparation of the false tax returns by not listing themselves as the paid preparer on the tax returns and by using Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) to obscure their IP addresses while filing the false returns,” the DOJ said.

    “If a client did not have a business, members of the conspiracy allegedly would sometimes sell shell companies to them in order to file false tax returns.”

    The fraudsters reportedly filed for $600 million in tax credits as part of the scheme, of which the IRS roughly disbursed $45 million. Authorities charged the defendants with 45 counts, including wire fraud, conspiracy to defraud the United States, and assisting in preparing false tax returns.

    Some of the defendants also allegedly submitted false applications for loans under the pandemic-era Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). Six people allegedly involved in the PPP fraud were charged with wire fraud as well.

    If convicted, defendants face prison terms ranging from three to 30 years per count, depending on the charge.

    Tackling Pandemic Fraud

    The DOJ had previously charged several hundreds of individuals for fraud related to COVID-19. Back in August 2023, the agency announced 718 enforcement actions for alleged COVID-19 fraud offenses involving $836 million. This included federal criminal charges against 371 defendants.

    Many of the cases were linked to pandemic unemployment insurance benefit fraud, as well as fraud related to the Economic Injury Disaster Loans and PPP.

    In March last year, the IRS announced that its Criminal Investigation (CI) unit had investigated 1,644 tax and money laundering cases worth $8.9 billion that were linked to COVID fraud.

    The cases involved fraudulently obtained loans, payments, and credits aimed at supporting American workers and small businesses.

    “In the last year alone, we have opened nearly 700 new COVID fraud investigations that collectively add up to $5 billion in potential fraud,” CI Chief Guy Ficco said at the time. “Our special agents continue to seek out fraudsters who stole money from government loan programs for their personal gain.”

    This month, Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) announced the introduction of the “Complete COVID Collections Act” that seeks to extend authorization of the Special Inspector General for Pandemic Recovery (SIGPR) through 2030.

    SIGPR, created as a watchdog to oversee loans provided under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, is scheduled to expire in March 2025. Extending the authorization allows the SIGPR to continue pursuing people who stole COVID funds reserved for small businesses, Ernst said.

    “Con artists took advantage of small businesses’ pain during COVID to defraud government programs designed to help hardworking Americans,” Ernst said.

    “While we are $36 trillion in debt, we especially cannot afford to leave more than $200 billion floating around, especially in the hands of fraudsters. My Republican colleagues and I are making sure that all resources are available in this fight to get taxpayers’ money back and hold these criminals accountable.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/27/2025 – 17:40

  • DeepSeek Hit By "Large-Scale" Cyberattack
    DeepSeek Hit By “Large-Scale” Cyberattack

    Chinese AI company DeepSeek reminded Western investors about global competition in the artificial intelligence race, particularly in China, where large language models can be developed and trained at a fraction of the cost incurred by Mag7 companies. This sparked a global selloff across the AI complex as investors worry over “negative capex impact” and ROI concerns over hefty AI investments.

    In a separate development, DeepSeek’s API landing page posted this warning around noon: “Due to large-scale malicious attacks on DeepSeek’s services, registration may be busy. Please wait and try again. Registered users can log in normally. Thank you for your understanding and support.” 

    The Hangzhou-based company continued, “To ensure continued service, registration is temporarily limited to +86 phone numbers. Existing users can log in as usual.” 

    DeepSeek did not disclose who was behind the “attacks” or where they originated. However, given that hundreds of billions of dollars in market capitalization were wiped out from Mag7 stocks (-$700bln), plus a massive AI narrative shift, one might reasonably speculate about where the attacks are coming from, directly or indirectly through proxy groups. 

    Our forensics analysis of Chinese public records provides a more in-depth view of DeepSeek. 

    Business purpose:

    Hangzhou Deep Quest Artificial Intelligence Basic Technology Research Co., Ltd., with its office address located in Hangzhou, the capital of Zhejiang Province and a paradise on earth, Room 1201, Building 1, West Huijin International Building, No. 169 North Huancheng Road, Gongshu District, Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province (registered address), our company mainly provides: engineering and technical research and experimental development; technical services, technical development, technical consulting, technical exchanges, technology transfer, and technology promotion; software development; computer system services; information system integration services; artificial intelligence application software development; information technology consulting services; electronic product sales; communication equipment sales; instrument sales; data processing services; Internet data services; computer software, hardware and auxiliary equipment retail; artificial intelligence hardware sales; professional design services.

    Upstream Ownership (Founder: Liang Wenfeng):

    Additional public records data on DeepSeek:

    DeepSeek’s training costs for its latest LLM are allegedly around $6 million—far less than the hundreds of billions of dollars Mag7 companies spent.

    PitchBook data shows a recent money raise…

    Meanwhile, Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon told clients: “Did DeepSeek really build OpenAI for $5 million? Of course not,” adding, “It seems like a stretch to think the innovations being deployed by DeepSeek are completely unknown by the top tier AI researchers at the world’s other numerous AI labs.”

    However, if DeepSeek did… 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Latest DeepSeek reporting:

    . . . 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/27/2025 – 17:20

  • Rep. Fallon To New USSS Director: Make Swift Reforms
    Rep. Fallon To New USSS Director: Make Swift Reforms

    Authored by Susan Crabtree via RealClearPolitics,

    Less than 48 hours into the job as Secret Service director, Sean Curran is getting an earful of advice on overhauling the agency, including from the House member who sharply tangled with his predecessor.

    Rep. Pat Fallon, a Texas Republican, who got into a screaming match with former Acting Secret Service Director Ron Rowe during a House hearing in early December, spearheaded a letter sent to Curran Friday, lauding his selection while pressing him to usher in “dramatic change” to the agency.

    “Congratulations on your recent appointment by President Trump to serve as the next director of the U.S. Secret Service,” wrote Fallon, a member of the House Task Force. “As you know well, this is both a great honor and a great responsibility. Your courageous actions on July 13, 2024, at the Butler, Pa. rally, while serving as President Trump’s special agent in charge, demonstrate your superb commitment to your agency’s zero-fail mission.”

    Five other Republicans on the Task Force signed the letter, including its chairman, Rep. Mike Kelly of Pennsylvania, and Reps. Clay Higgins of Louisiana, Mark Green of Tennessee, David Joyce of Ohio, and Laurel Lee of Florida.

    Curran, who headed Trump’s campaign security detail for more than two years, was one of the first agents to leap on the then-GOP nominee and cover him with a human shield amid flying bullets. The efforts may have helped save Trump’s life, even as Trump pushed through the protection to rise from the floor, pump his fist, and shout, “Fight, fight, fight!” He also repeatedly requested additional security assets for Trump, but was rebuffed by USSS leaders until the FBI briefed them on an Iranian plot against Trump’s life in the days leading up to the Butler rally.

    The House Republicans placed the blame for the “unacceptable failures” that led to the Butler assassination attempt squarely on the USSS leadership, including Rowe, who moved into the acting Secret Service director role after Congress pressured former Director Kimberly Cheatle to resign. The Texas Republican urged Curran to read the House Task Forces’ report “thoroughly and strongly consider the recommendations therein.”

    “We cannot stress enough the need for dramatic change in culture at the USSS,” they wrote. “The events of July 13 in particular underscore why the world’s premier protective agency, the USSS, can never succumb to complacency.”

    “There is good evidence that, as the agency’s next director, you will effect such change, and we are reassured by President Trump’s over confidence in you as his choice to lead,” they added. “Our republic is counting on you to ensure [the] USSS lives up to its zero-fail mission.”

    Tensions flared between Fallon and Rowe during a December House Task Force hearing that pressed Rowe about the findings of the group’s investigation. Fallon lambasted Rowe for taking nine days to visit the Butler site despite being the deputy director at the time. He then accused him of trying to push Biden’s protective agents to the side so he could stand in a position of prominence at a New York City event celebrating the 23rd anniversary of 9/11.

    “I actually responded to Ground Zero. I was there going through the ashes of the World Trade Center,” Rowe retorted. “I was there, congressman – I was there to show respect for a Secret Service member that died on 9/11. Do not invoke 9/11 for political purposes.”

    The exchange became even more explosive, with both men trying to interrupt each other after Fallon said Rowe was trying to change the subject because the criticism was true.

    “You know why you were there, because you wanted to be visible, because you are auditioning for this job that you’re not going to get,” he further yelled during their confrontation, accusing Rowe of endangering lives.

    Even before receiving the letter, Curran was wasting little time in starting to clean house at the Secret Service. On his first day on the job, as many as 10 senior leadership officials, including Rowe, were warned that they would either be fired, moved, or pressed into retirement, according to three Secret Service sources.

    Curran has been inundated with information on which top officials on the 8th floor of headquarters to oust or replace. Agents are circulating removal wish lists, as well as names of those agents Curran or other members of his new leadership team already informed that their services are no longer needed.

    Agents are expressing an urgent need to remove Chief Operating Officer Cynthia Sjoberg Radway from her leadership post. Radway was incredibly close to Cheatle, the pair having become good friends during a previous Radway stint working for the agency. When Cheatle became director, she brought Radway back to work more directly for her in the COO role and gave her a bonus to do so, according to multiple sources. The fear is that Radway, if allowed to stay, will continue to serve as a pipeline of information back to Cheatle. She also has crossed many agents Curran respects.

    “She will be a major roadblock to positive progress,” if allowed to stay, one source in the Secret Service community told RealClearPolitics.

    One of the biggest points of contention about who should stay and go is being waged over an alleged decision by former USSS leadership, under Cheatle’s and Rowe’s direction, not to inform Curran of the security threats against Trump before the Butler rally.

    In addition to Cheatle and Rowe, David Torres, assistant director of Strategic Intelligence and Information, was also involved in keeping the Trump campaign detail in the dark about a specific Iranian attempt against Trump’s life. The Pittsburgh Field Office, which partnered with the Trump campaign detail for planning and executing security for the Butler rally, also was never informed before the July 13 assassination attempt. If the two Secret Service contingents had been informed, the agents charged with providing security may have upped their game to come up with a more robust security plan and far better execution, these sources contend.

    Rowe officially passed the torch to Curran in a “good-bye” letter to all Secret Service personal sent late Thursday night and obtained by RealClearPolitics. In it, he praised Curran’s selection for the role, while omitting any reference to the two assassination attempts against Trump’s life while he was serving in top leadership agency roles. Rowe only became acting director after Kimberly Cheatle resigned under pressure from Congress in the wake of the Butler assassination-attempt debacle.

    Rowe strangely claimed he is “excited” to announce that Curran will be the next director, the 28th in the agency’s history. (Trump previously announced that decision on Truth Social.)

    “Throughout his career, Director Curran has led and played critical roles in both protective operations and the investigative mission,” Rowe wrote. “He has consistently demonstrated outstanding leadership, integrity, and courage.”

    “His vision, dedication, and ability to drive results have earned him respect inside the agency and from law enforcement partners,” he continued. “I am confident that under his leadership the Secret Service will continue to grow, innovate, and remain steadfast in our unwavering commitment to succeed in our missions.” Rowe’s conclusion that he’s “proud of all that we have accomplished together” without any mention of the monumental failures in Butler and during the second assassination attempt on Trump’s life at a Florida golf course spurred instant ridicule among rank-and-file agents.

    But it was the way he signed the letter that gave fellow agents and USSS officers the most pause. Rowe listed his title as deputy director, the post he held before former Homeland Security Secretary Mayorkas elevated him to the acting director role following Cheatle’s resignation.

    If Rowe is moving to the deputy director role with Curran in the top post, agents tell RCP they believe nothing will change, and the USSS will continue to experience protection failures, retention problems, and low morale. “When are we going to seriously fix the problems instead of putting lipstick on a pig?” one source questioned.

    Yet, Rowe may simply be moving back to the deputy director job temporarily before Curran has a chance to name his own No. 2 and chief of staff. The names circulating among the Secret Service for those top leadership roles include Matthew Piant, who served as Curran’s No. 2 on the Trump campaign detail, and Tyler McQuiston, a former agent who previously served in several senior protective operations roles.

    Susan Crabtree is RealClearPolitics’ national political correspondent.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/27/2025 – 17:00

  • Glug, Glug…
    Glug, Glug…

    Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

    “. . .once Trump runs out of easy ways to unfuck the federal government, his administration will hit a crossroads moment, probably sooner rather than later.”

    – Matt Taibbi

    Glug, Glug…

    That’s the sound of a swamp being drained. And much fetid water is still backed up over the 68.3 square miles that comprise the District of Columbia. You might be just realizing that the “Joe Biden” regime was not a government at all, but rather, a colossal racketeering operation. And let’s be clear and precise: racketeering is making money dishonestly. Thus: the grubby Biden Family itself at the top of that putrid food-chain, and their smalltime harvesting of mere table-scraps. Where trillions got creamed off by the big gators, the Bidens risked all for a measly few million, like newts gorging on gnats in a drainage ditch.

    Are you so cynical— as the Marxians are in their so-called “critique” of capitalism — that you think all human transactions of making-and-doing are dishonest? That is yet another misreading of reality, which the recent years of nonstop official propaganda and gaslight have catastrophically aggravated to the degree that half of America can no longer think at all.

    Capitalism is not a political ideology despite the “ism” incorrectly attached to it, like the tail pinned on a donkey. Capitalism is simply the management of surplus wealth. The catch is, in a hyper-complex society, the management itself becomes complex to an extreme. And that can easily lead to mismanagement, which will deform and pervert the very mechanisms that superintend wealth, sometimes so badly that the wealth disappears altogether.

    These are the dynamics faced by the newborn Trump command. Both political parties, per se, have fallen into a dismal habit of racketeering in this sclerotic state-of-empire. But now Mr. Trump has seized control of the Republican apparatus, at least, and the Party’s entrenched ol’ crocs and pythons descry that under DJT the regular feeding frenzy is over. Hence: the hand-wringing over Pete Hegseth setting foot in the Pentagon, as he will sometime this dawning day. The dollars pounded down that rat-hole in this century could have funded start-ups of several empires, but instead the swag just landed in the index funds of countless board members parasitically lodged in a dark cosmos of G.I. procurement circle-jerks. A lot of that can and will be stopped. And the ones who just won’t quit are liable to be found out.

    Now, the Democratic Party faces more perplexing quandaries. It, too, is constructed as a gigantic grift machine. But if you subtract the employees of the multitudinous NGOs and non-profit orgs set up in recent years to receive government largess — which have spawned like smelts in the San Joaquin delta — you would eliminate much of the party’s rank-and-file. (The rest are apparently embedded in government itself and the teachers’ union.) A whole lot of activists would lose their platforms for activism in the process.

    These crypto-bureaucracies have become the places where the Democratic Party stashes the “elite over-production” of Woked-up Marxian semi-morons from America’s diploma mills — in which orgs they are lavishly paid to conduct the aforementioned propaganda and gaslighting operations that wrecked so many American minds. The funding spigot to many of those is getting shut down. It will result in an employment crunch for a large cohort of professional crybabies. They could possibly adapt to their new circumstances by ceasing to be crybabies, and finding other, more useful things to do. That would portend some very significant cultural shiftings, which might include the death of the Democratic Party as we’ve known it. Or, they could all just join Antifa (if they’re not already in it) and go make trouble in the streets.

    The first seven days of Mr. Trump have been sheer razzle-dazzle. He and the people around him have torn through the zeitgeist like front-end-loaders through a homeless encampment. He has yet to meet a crisis. Some of the obvious traps are avoidable. For instance: seeking further injury to Russia as a way of ending the stupid Ukraine war — started by us in 2014, thanks a lot Victoria Nuland & Company — since both the US and Russia are just about unconditionally desirous of stopping the damn thing as soon as possible. It’s had no benefit for anybody but the Raytheon war lobby and the Zelensky regime’s legion of grifters. Mr. Trump’s recent tough talk has been entirely for show, just a mass of rhetorical lube to un-stick the lingering “Joe Biden” stasis in that sad-sack corner of the world.

    If crisis awaits, it’s probably lurking in the financial realm, where the operations of debt have put nearly every country on Gawd’s Green Earth behind the eight-ball. There is just too much of it that everybody knows can’t possibly be paid back — or soon even serviced — and the grand managers of these matters are finally out of tricks for pretending things can go on. Nor, here in America, can Mr. Trump cut spending fast enough to rebalance accounts. And if he somehow could, government employment has become such a big piece of the total economy that we would land post-haste in a new great depression That predicament is yet-to-be faced, but hold your breath because it is hard upon us.

    Meanwhile, this is the week when the most hardcore of Mr. Trump’s cabinet warriors go ‘splainin’ before committees in the US Senate: Bobby Kennedy, Jr., Tulsi Gabbard, and Kash Patel. Prepare for some heat and light. And then, the deluge.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/27/2025 – 16:20

  • Trump Lifts Biden's Pause On 2,000-Pound Bomb Shipments To Israel
    Trump Lifts Biden’s Pause On 2,000-Pound Bomb Shipments To Israel

    President Trump has hailed that the Gaza ceasefire is holding, but simultaneously suggested that Israel should ‘clean out’ the Gaza Strip. It has become obvious that Hamas has not been defeated, and in fact there are signs showing the Islamist militant group is regrouping and resurging. 

    Trump within the past days has released a hold on a shipment of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel previously paused by the Biden administration, according to Axios. This ‘controversial’ move of Biden had largely been but a PR ploy at a time when the prior Democratic administration was being overwhelmed with criticism over its Israel-Gaza policies.

    The paused shipment, which is now resuming, includes 1,800 MK-84 bombs being stored in the United States. Trump vowed these “paid for” weapons are en route to Israel.

    MK-84 bombs, via Reuters 

    “A lot of things that were ordered and paid for by Israel, but have not been sent by Biden, are now on their way!” Trump declared on Truth Social.

    Shipments of 500-pound bombs had also been temporarily halted, but in July this pause was lifted by Biden. These pauses on large bombs unlikely had any real impact on Israel’s military capabilities or actions.

    Instead, the prior administration tried to use it as an incentive for Israel to greatly reduce the number of civilian casualties among Palestinians, as the IDF had been accused of indiscriminate killing.

    The Netanyahu government in turn claimed that this was an “arms embargo” by Biden against Israel, despite that something like 99+ percent of all military continued to flow the whole time.

    Outgoing Israeli ambassador to the US Mike Herzog was the first to signal over a week ago that Trump was expected to release the bombs.

    “We believe that Trump is going to release, at the beginning of his term, the munitions that haven’t been released until now by the Biden administration,” Herzog had said in a media interview.

    Israeli government figures have put the number of Hamas dead at 20,000 or more after nearly a year-and-a-half of war. However, Gaza health sources have said at least 45,000 mostly civilians have been killed. Gaza Health authority figures don’t distinguish between combatants and civilians.

    Via Al Jazeera

    Many independent analysts agree that the overwhelming numbers of Palestinian casualties are indeed civilians. This has been a constant throughout the conflict, for which Israel has faced widespread international criticism. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/27/2025 – 15:50

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Jan 27

Today’s News 27th January 2025

  • China's DeepSeek AI Moves The Capital Of Tech From Palo Alto To Hangzhou
    China’s DeepSeek AI Moves The Capital Of Tech From Palo Alto To Hangzhou

    Authored by Mike Whitney,

    In a matter of days, the news of China’s AI sensation, DeepSeek R1, has gone from a gentle breeze to a Force 5 hurricane. It’s clear now that no one in Silicon Valley or Washington DC had the slightest idea that their world was about to be turned upside-down by an innovative new product that would shift the geopolitical plates further eastward. But that, in fact, is what has happened. And it’s not simply because DeepSeek’s latest version matches or exceeds the performance of America’s best model, OpenAI; but because it is cheaper, more accessible and more transparent. This is AI for everyone regardless of their station or income. And its sudden emergence from ‘out of the blue’ has cast doubts on the ability of western tech giants to anticipate the capability of their competitors or to lead an industry that is essential for Washington to preserve its ever-loosening grip on global power. Here’s a brief recap from Venture Beat:

    ….thanks to the release of DeepSeek R1, a new large language model that performs “reasoning” similar to OpenAI’s current best-available model o1 — taking multiple seconds or minutes to answer hard questions and solve complex problems as it reflects on its own analysis in a step-by-step, or “chain of thought” fashion.

    Not only that, but DeepSeek R1 scored as high or higher than OpenAI’s o1 on a variety of third-party benchmarks…, and was reportedly trained at a fraction of the cost…, with far fewer graphics processing units (GPU) under a strict embargo imposed by the U.S., OpenAI’s home turf.

    But unlike o1, which is available only to paying ChatGPT subscribers of the Plus tier ($20 per month) and more expensive tiers (such as Pro at $200 per month), DeepSeek R1 was released as a fully open source model, which also explains why it has quickly rocketed up the charts of AI code sharing community Hugging Face’s most downloaded and active models. 

    – Why everyone in AI is freaking out about DeepSeek, Venture Beat

    “Freaking out” is probably the understatement of the century. Silicon Valley is in a full-blown emotional meltdown and the path forward is far from certain. As we will see further along, western tech mandarins are going to have to return to Square 1 and modify their approach to the new reality. In short, the agenda is being set by people with different priorities, values and beliefs who live 10,000 miles away. They do not ascribe to the idea that advances in technology should reinforce police-state surveillance or other repressive forms of social control.(as they do in the West) Their vision of the future is altogether different, but invariably optimistic.

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    Did you notice that “DeepSeek R1 scored as high or higher than OpenAI’s o1 (while) under a strict embargo imposed by the US”?

    In other words, these Chinese whiz-kids created their cutting-edge version with one hand tied behind their back. They shrugged off Washington’s onerous sanctions and beat Uncle Sam at his own game, which is quite an accomplishment. (Forbes: “U.S. export controls on advanced semiconductors were intended to slow China’s AI progress, but they may have inadvertently spurred innovation.”) Here’s more:

    thanks to the fact that it is fully open source, people have already fine-tuned and trained many multiple variations of the model for different task-specific purposes such as making it small enough to run on a mobile device or combining it with other open-source models. Even if you want to use it for development purposes, DeepSeek’s API costs are more than 90% cheaper than the equivalent o1 model from OpenAI. 

    – Why everyone in AI is freaking out about DeepSeek, Venture Beat

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    Cheaper, more adaptable and more transparent. Is there more? There is:

    Most impressively of all, you don’t even need to be a software engineer to use it: DeepSeek has a free website and mobile app even for U.S. users with an R1-powered chatbot interface very similar to OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Except, once again, DeepSeek undercut or “mogged” OpenAI by connecting this powerful reasoning model to web search — something OpenAI hasn’t yet done…

    – Why everyone in AI is freaking out about DeepSeek, Venture Beat

    Is the author right; are the tech-honchos and their moneybags allies “freaking out” over DeepSeek or do they see it as a minor glitch on the road to AI supremacy? Here’s how he answers that question:

    A message posted to Blind… has been making the rounds suggesting Meta is in crisis over the success of DeepSeek because of how quickly it surpassed Meta’s own efforts to be the king of open source AI with its Llama models.

    It sounds like a lot of people are very concerned, and for good reason. DeepSeek is a nuclear bomb detonated in the heart of Silicon Valley. It is a straight-up challenge to America’s de facto Royal Family of tech Brahmins who thought their reign would last forever. Now they find themselves playing ‘catch-up’ with an upstart cadre of bluestocking brainiacs who are bringing their world crashing down around them. More importantly, the future of AI is being decided in Hangzhou not Palo Alto which means we might see a lull in the warmaking as Uncle Sam finds it harder to finance his endless bloodletting. What a welcome reprieve that would be.

    The author of the above piece even quotes one of my favorite analysts on X, Arnaud Bertrand, an invaluable source of unbiased information about developments in China. Here’s what he said:

    “There’s no overstating how profoundly this changes the whole game. And not only with regards to AI, it’s also a massive indictment of the US’s misguided attempt to stop China’s technological development, without which Deepseek may not have been possible…”

    Yep, the whole semiconductor embargo-thing backfired spectacularly illustrating once again that we are ruled by incompetent lamebrains who love to punish people for violations to rules they make up on-the-fly. Just look at the mess these ‘geniuses’ have made.

    We’ll end with Bertrand’s insightful critique of Trump’s $500 billion Stargate boondoggle which will be obsolete before they even break ground:

    Stargate, if it goes forward, is likely to become one of the biggest wastages of capital in history:

    1) It hinges on outdated assumptions about the importance of computing scale in AI (the ‘bigger compute = better AI’ dogma), which DeepSeek just proved is wrong.

    2) It assumes that the future of AI is with closed and controlled models despite the market’s clear preference for democratized, open-source alternatives

    3) It clings to a Cold War playbook, framing AI dominance as a zero-sum hardware arms race, which is really at odds with the direction AI is taking (again, open-source software, global developer communities, and collaborative ecosystems)

    4) It bets the farm on OpenAI—a company plagued by governance issues and a business model that’s seriously challenged DeepSeek’s 30x cost advantage.

    In short it’s like building a half a trillion dollars digital Maginot line: a very expensive monument to obsolete and misguided assumptions. This is OpenAI and by extension the US fighting the last war.
    Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand

    Or, as Jim Fan said: the … future of AI is democratization…. It’s the tide of history that we should surf on, not swim against.…Jim Fan @DrJimFan

    Indeed, it is.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/26/2025 – 23:55

  • Trump Effect: LA Bends The Knee, Will Reopen Pacific Palisades To Residents Starting Monday
    Trump Effect: LA Bends The Knee, Will Reopen Pacific Palisades To Residents Starting Monday

    Two days after President Trump scolded Los Angeles for refusing to allow residents affected by the recent fires to return to their homes, Mayor Karen Bass announced that Pacific Palisades will be completely reopened to residents during daylight hours, starting Monday, Jan. 27.

    During a Friday roundtable, Bass told Trump that it was unsafe for residents to return. After residents at the meeting decried the slow response, Bass compromised – saying they could return “within a week.”

    Trump replied: “That’s a long time, a week. I’ll be honest, to me, everyone standing in front of their house, they want to go to work and they’re not allowed to do it. … They’re safe. They’re safe. You know what? They’re not safe. They’re not safe now. They’re going to be much safer. A week, a week is actually a long time the way I look at it.“

    Residents of the Palisades began trying to their homes and lots on Saturday – some of whom were able to talk their way past police, according to Breitbart‘s Joel Pollak, a Palisades resident whose house was spared. Pollak has been reporting from the ground since the fires began.

    The county’s decision to allow residents to return on Monday came with a caveat; weather permitting, and only until 5:00 p.m., which will allow people to sift through the rubble for belongings, or grieve and make peace with their loss.

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/26/2025 – 23:20

  • The Most Important Week Of The Quarter: Month End, Fed, ECB, Earnings , PCE And More
    The Most Important Week Of The Quarter: Month End, Fed, ECB, Earnings , PCE And More

    By Goldman trader Paolo Schiavone

    Key Events – Global Week Ahead:  Fed and ECB, Lunar New Year, 20% S&P Earnings

    • Monday : China industrial profits and PMI, Germany IFO , US new home sales, Lagarde speak in Budapest, Bessent confirmation. 3rd Feb first QRA. 
    • Tuesday : US consumer confidence, durable goods, Informal dinner Lagarde and Von der Leyen. GM, Starbucks results. 
    • Wednesday : Fed, Brazil and Canada rate decision, Spain GDP, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, ASML earnings, Reeves speech in Oxfordshire, BOJ minutes
    • Thursday : ECB, Apple, CAT, Visa, UPS Deutsche Bank, Shell earnings, US Q4 GDP; RBA Jones speaks, BOJ Himino speaks.
    • Friday : France CPI, Germany CPI, unemployment, US personal income, PCE inflation, employment cost index, Samsung earnings, Bowman remarks.

    Trading markets

    1. The plethora of events suggest x-asset vol is likely to be back next week. It’s Fed vs Mag7 earnings                          
    2. Very opportunity-rich environment if you’re quick on the trigger. But also, plenty of bad volatility (in as, not fundamentally driven, hard to forecast).                                                                                                                           
    3. So, you need to be nimble, size at half-75% of normal. Strong convictions weakly held. Weak convictions expressed in a risk efficient, premium down format.

    Framework: Technical, Flows, Positioning. Valuation, Sentiment. 

    • Technical 30% : Top of the channel for US Equities/ Europe Breaking out / Oil and Copper at support / Momentum in bonds sell off seem to have calmed. 
    • Flows 30% :  Global equity funds slowed (+$6bn vs +$13bn last week). Fixed income stronger demand (+$14bn vs +$11bn last week). EM negative flows. FX , USD demand. 
    • Positioning 20% : Cleaner in Equities/ FI/ FX. Tariffs, strong earnings, healthy thematic, supportive macro have left clients with limited convictions. 
    • Valuation 10% : Low Equity Risk premia / Neutral for bonds. Would say not very high for the Mag7 given the reset in EPS expectations. Bonds 
    • Sentiment 10%: AAII stretched, GS Neutral. Despite one of the largest USD weekly drawdowns in years still constructive in Equities, Short oil, Neutral bonds. 

    Fed view: We are pricing, 7 for March ,14 for May 25 for June. We view “market pricing as a probabilistic statement about possible Fed paths in coming years is too hawkish”

    Interesting Trades:

    1. Fed- Dovish vs pricing- Rec SFRM5Z5
    2. Rec BOC meeting on Wed- 25 or more than 0
    3. Deepseek- low quality dip on Nasdaq. Buy dips in NQH5
    4. Earnings: ASML short MSFT long/ Meta long
    5. Earnings: Oracle/ Microsoft/ Amazon vs NVDA
    6. Long Copper into Chinese seasonality and Lunar new year destocking.

    Weekend News flow: 

    1. Trump ridicules Denmark and insists US will take Greenland – FT
    2. Meta’s chief AI scientist says DeepSeek’s success shows that “open source models better vs proprietary ones”
    3. President Trump said he wants to “clean out” the Gaza Strip and urged Jordan and Egypt
    4. German Election Taboos Broken as Merz and Musk Flirt With AfD
    5. Baltic Sea data cable damaged in latest case of potential sabotage
    6. Reeves seeks to unlock billions from UK pension schemes for investment- FT

    Charts: 

    Chart 1 GS Flow of funds last week:

    Chart 2: Mag Seven: EPS expectations slowing- buying opportunity on a lower bar ( BBG)

    Chart 3: SPX short and USD shorts capitulation was at full speed.

    Chart 4: Corporate Insiders are dumping shares at the fastest pace in history (data going back to 1988) 

    Chart 5: Gold continues to be one of the highest conviction/ trend trades out of the gates in 2025. (Goldman)

    More in the full Goldman note available to pro subs.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/26/2025 – 23:13

  • Russian Forces Officially Seize Last Strategic City In Southern Donbas Region
    Russian Forces Officially Seize Last Strategic City In Southern Donbas Region

    As we warned at the end of December, Russian troops had been gaining ground on the eastern front at an exponential rate, with the key city of Velyka Novosilka nearly encircled and ready to fall.  After weeks of incomplete reports on the situation, Ukrainian officials have finally confirmed that the area has been overrun.  Some reports also indicate that Ukrainian soldiers were nearly surrounded during the retreat.

    Kiev claims encirclement while Russian footage of clean-up operations on the ground indicates that some Ukrainian units may have been abandoned. 

    The establishment media has remained relatively quiet on the event, even though geo-located video footage showing Russian troops raising flags over the center of the city are circulating widely on social media.  Analysis of known Ukrainian defenses suggests that Kiev’s lines are thin beyond Velyka Novosilka and that the city was the last major stronghold preventing Russian troops from surging into central Ukraine and the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast region.

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    Velyka Novosilka was made vulnerable to Russian attack after Ukraine retreated from Vuhledar, roughly 30 kilometers (18 miles) east.  The Ukrainians originally claimed that Vuhledar was strategically “unimportant”, but the loss has proven to be disastrous. 

    The prevailing ugly truth for the Ukrainians is one of manpower – They don’t have enough.  In the early days of the war a steady stream of western mercenaries, many of them military veterans from the US and the UK, flooded into Ukraine along with NATO weapons, cash and “advisers”.  This source of extra manpower dried up at least 18 months ago 

    The initial retreat by Russia to the east in 2022 was wrongly interpreted by western media as a sign of surrender by Vladimir Putin, but Russia was in fact reforming their lines in order to execute a new attrition strategy.  Attrition warfare negates the tactical advantages of maneuver warfare commonly used by NATO armies.

    Continuing Russian gains bring into question the context of peace talks being arranged by the new Trump Administration.  It is unlikely that Putin will accept any agreement that requires Russia to give up any part of the Donbas territory; Russia has all the leverage.

    Trump has indicated that Vladimir Zelensky is also resistant to entering negotiations and insists on continuing the war.  Zelensky seems to operate under the assumption that the US or the EU will eventually be forced to deploy troops to the front and that Ukraine will not be required to give up any territory.  This, of course, would would result in a new world war over a country that most Americans are no longer interested in propping up.      

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/26/2025 – 22:45

  • Trade War Ends In Less Than 10 Hours After Colombia Agrees To All Of Trump's Terms
    Trade War Ends In Less Than 10 Hours After Colombia Agrees To All Of Trump’s Terms

    Update (10:26pm ET): Just after 10pm ET, and just under 10 hours after Trump lobbed the first shot in the first trade war of his second admin, the White House announced that Colombia had agreed to all of Trump’s terms, “including the unrestricted acceptance of all illegal aliens from Colombia returned from the United States, including on U.S. military aircraft, without limitation or delay.”

    Based on this agreement, the White House notes, the hastily drafted tariffs and sanctions “will be held in reserve, and not signed, unless Colombia fails to honor this agreement.” The visa sanctions issued by the State Department, and enhanced inspections from Customs and Border Protection, will remain in effect until the first planeload of Colombian deportees is successfully returned.

    The statement concludes by noting that President Trump “will continue to fiercely protect our nation’s sovereignty, and he expects all other nations of the world to fully cooperate in accepting the deportation of their citizens illegally present in the United States.”

    And just like that, Trump wins, in a victory so complete even the president of Colombia reposted his own loss.

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    The only problem: the next trade wars – and there will be many – won’t be nearly as easy to win…

    * * *

    Update (6:50pm ET): Despite appearing to cave earlier when he ordered the use of the presidential plane to repatraite illegal aliens from the US, late on Sunday Colombia President Gustavo Petro ordered an increase of import tariffs on goods from the United States in retaliation to President Trump’s tariffs and sanctions.

    Petro, in a post on the social platform X, said he ordered the “foreign trade minister to raise import tariffs from the U.S. by 25%.”

    “American products whose price will rise within the national economy must be replaced by national production, and the government will help in this regard,” the post continued.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsThen in a meandering post in Spanish, the president also issued several empty threats to Trump.

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    Meanwhile, as Bloomberg notes, Colombian assets are set for a rout after US President Donald Trump said he’d implement a spate of tariffs and sanctions on the South American nation.

    The announcement of an emergency 25% tariff on all Colombian goods coming into the US, made by Trump on social media on Sunday, caught traders off guard — most of the focus so far has been on levies on Mexico, Canada and China. The move will likely spark a slump that will reverberate across local bond, currency and equity markets when trading opens Monday.

    Daniel Velandia, chief economist at Credicorp Capital Colombia, said the peso will weaken against the dollar Monday morning, adding that the economy could inch toward a recession in an “extreme scenario.”

    “This is completely unexpected and unpredictable,” Velandia said. “We need to see how far Trump goes and how Colombia’s government will respond, hoping that diplomacy will be used to prevent adverse effects.”

    And it’s not just Colombia: the Mexican peso is also tumbling more than 1% in late Sunday trading amid concerns that the southern US neighbor will be next to suffer Trump’s wrath.

    * * *

    Update (4:15pm ET): that may have been the fastest trade war capitulation in history:

    • COLOMBIA OFFERS PRESIDENTIAL PLANE TO HELP REPATRIATE DEPORTEES FROM US: CNN

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    Full statement translated:

    * * *

    For those in the market breathing repeated sighs of relief that Trump has – so far – not imposed sanctions on China or any other major country, we have some news, just wait.

    Case in point: on Saturday afternoon, one day after Colombia’s president Gustavo Petro refused to allow two military flights from the United States full of undocumented migrants to land on its soil, President Donald Trump announced on his Truth Social platform that he would slap sweeping sanctions and travel bans on Colombia.

    In a social media post, Trump said he has ordered an emergency 25% tariff on all Colombian goods coming into the US, which will be raised to 50% in one week.

    He has also called for a travel ban and immediate visa revocations on Colombian government officials “and all Allies and Supporters” as well as visa sanctions on party members, family members and supporters of the government of President Gustavo Petro.

    “Petro’s denial of these flights has jeopardized the National Security and Public Safety of the United States,” Trump said.

    While the US is hardly overly reliant on Colombian exports – with the exception of cocaine whose prices are about to skyrocket – the speed and severity with which Trump unveiled his latest set of weaponized sanctions is an indication of just how ruthless and relentless Trump will be when dealing with other, much bigger trade partners.

    Lastly, anyone hoping that Trump was just bluffing about tariffs on China, Europe, or NAFTA member states, is about to get a very nasty surprise.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/26/2025 – 22:32

  • Will Any Federal Officials Pay For What They Did?
    Will Any Federal Officials Pay For What They Did?

    Authored by James Bovard via The Brownstone Institute,

    The biggest scientific con of the century is finally being exposed. But will any politicians or government officials ever be held responsible for the carnage they unleashed on Americans?

    In early 2020, when the Covid pandemic was starting to ravage America, federal bureaucrats and politicians rushed to suppress any suggestion that the pandemic originated from a Chinese government lab bankrolled by US government agencies. Key Biden administration officials effectively exonerated the Chinese government even though the Chinese completely stonewalled any outside investigation into the origin of the Covid virus, as the Wall Street Journal recently revealed in a front-page scoop. 

    The FBI’s top expert concluded that the virus leaked from the lab but he was derailed by the Biden administration, blocked from presenting his evidence at a key White House meeting in August 2021. Three scientists at the National Center for Medical Intelligence, part of the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency, concluded that Covid leaked from a lab but they were muzzled. The Inspector General is conducting an investigation to determine why those experts were silenced. The Department of Energy also concluded that Covid originated in a lab. In September 2023, a senior CIA analyst told a Congressional committee that six key CIA analysts had been bribed by the agency to abandon their conclusion that Covid originated in a lab leak.

    The Chinese government first admitted that a pandemic had broken out in the city of Wuhan in early 2020. Though the Chinese military-affiliated Wuhan Institute of Virology had been experimenting with bats for years, the Chinese government insisted the new virus came from a nearby marketplace. But the lead scientists involved with bat research had all been struck down by Covid-19 symptoms shortly before the Chinese government denied any responsibility. There was a deluge of circumstantial evidence quickly linking the new virus to the lab. 

    The outbreak of Covid-19 spurred one of the most brazen cover-ups in modern US history. The National Institute for Health had been financing gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. That type of research seeks to genetically alter organisms to enable the spread of viruses into new species. Such research is extremely dangerous; as MIT professor Kevin Esvelt asked in 2021, “Why is anyone trying to teach the world how to make viruses that could kill millions of people?” The risks were compounded because the Wuhan Institute had a very poor safety rating. Two years earlier, the State Department confidentially “warned other federal agencies about safety issues at Wuhan labs studying bat Covid,” but the public disclosure of that alert was delayed until 2022.

    In January 2020, top federal scientists recognized that the pandemic could obliterate their reputations. Dr. Francis Collins, the director of the National Institutes for Health, wrote in an email that “a swift convening of experts in a confidence-inspiring framework is needed or the voices of conspiracy will quickly dominate, doing great potential harm to science and international harmony.” The “conspiracy” was the facts of the matter.

    Anthony Fauci, the chief of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), speedily enlisted a handful of trusted scientists to gin up a paper supposedly “proving” that the virus could not have originated in the lab. A top NIAID scientist accepted the task of debunking the lab-leak story because, as he emailed a colleague, “Tony doesn’t want his fingerprints on origin stories.” The Lancet, one of the most respected medical journals in the world, enlisted in the cover-up with an op-ed by 27 scientists who proclaimed: “We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that Covid-19 does not have a natural origin.” Maybe the same scientists also sent an addendum to NIH: Keep giving us grant money or your reputation will “swim with the fishes.”

    Further “proof” was provided by a torrent of accusations of racism against anyone who publicly suggested that the virus originated in a Chinese lab. The State Department’s Global Engagement Center added a federal fist to the debate, pressuring Twitter to suppress hundreds of thousands of accounts (including thousands of average Americans) in early 2020 for the crime of suggesting that Covid originated in a lab. Bureaucrats secretly decided that wildly exaggerated forecasts of pandemic mortality made the First Amendment null and void. 

    If Covid-19 had been initially recognized as the result of one of the biggest government boondoggles in history, it would have been far more difficult for American politicians and government scientists to pirouette as saviors as they seized sway over daily life. 

    The virus that the NIH financed provided push-button dictatorial power to politicians at every level of government. In the name of saving lives, politicians entitled themselves to destroy an unlimited number of livelihoods. Most governors responded to Covid-19 by dropping the equivalent of a Reverse Neutron Bomb — something that destroys the economy while leaving human beings unharmed. But the only way to assume people were uninjured was to presume that their lives were totally detached from their jobs, bank accounts, mortgage and rent payments, and friends and family.

    A virus with a 99+% survival rate spawned a 100% presumption in favor of despotism. From the start of the pandemic, many people who swore allegiance to “science and data” also believed that absolute power would keep them safe. Doubters became dissidents who deserved to be covertly silenced. 

    Shutdown advocates appealed to science like righteous priests invoking God and the Bible to sanctify scourging enemies. But the “science” was often farcically unreliable. Mandatory mask mandates became the new version of the Emancipation Proclamation. Fauci and other top officials deceived Americans into believing that cloth masks offered far more protection than they delivered. Do Americans finally recognize that the federal government was the biggest source of disinformation during the pandemic?

    A century ago, historian Henry Adams declared that politics has “always been the systematic organization of hatreds.” Covid-19 policies were so disruptive in part because politicians intentionally sought to maximize fear and rage against anyone who refused to submit to any dictate. After the efficacy of the Covid-19 vaccines collapsed, Biden responded by dictating that a hundred million American adults must get injected based on his personal decree.

    A few weeks later at a CNN town hall, Biden derided vaccine skeptics as murderers who only wanted “the freedom to kill you” with Covid. A few months later, a Rasmussen poll found that 59% of Democratic voters favored house arrest for the unvaccinated, and 45% favored locking the unvaxxed into government detention facilities. Almost half of Democrats favored empowering the government to “fine or imprison individuals who publicly question the efficacy of the existing Covid-19 vaccines on social media, television, radio, or in online or digital publications.” But hatred proved to be as ineffective as the Pfizer vaccine when it came to fighting Covid-19.

    Fauci, who was also Biden’s chief medical advisor, justified Covid mandates because average citizens “don’t have the ability” to determine what is best for them. But Congressional investigations revealed that Fauci was at the center of string-pulling to shirk responsibility for the Wuhan debacle. After Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) suggested prosecuting Fauci for false testimony on bankrolling “gain-of-function” research, Fauci howled that his critics are “really criticizing science because I represent science. That’s dangerous.” But not nearly as dangerous as vesting vast power in secretive federal agencies.

    On September 20, 2023, the Biden administration belatedly banned the Wuhan Institute of Virology from receiving any US government research funding for 10 years as punishment for its unauthorized gain-of-function experiments on bat coronaviruses. But why did the Biden administration omit the same condemnation and similar prohibitions from any American scientist, institute, or government officials that had any role in this debacle? 

    Instead of Tony Fauci bobbleheads, the slogan “Your Government at Work” superimposed atop a million American caskets captured the reality of Covid-19. 

    An earlier version of this piece was posted by The Libertarian Institute

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/26/2025 – 22:10

  • "I Don't Really Care, Margaret": Vance Shuts Down CBS Journo Over Unvetted Migrants
    “I Don’t Really Care, Margaret”: Vance Shuts Down CBS Journo Over Unvetted Migrants

    In his first interview since taking office on CBS News‘ “Face the Nation,” Vice President JD Vance shut down host Margaret Brennan during a line of questioning over allowing unvetted illegal migrants into the United States.

    “We absolutely cannot unleash thousands of unvetted people into our country,” said Vance. To which Brennan shot back “These people are vetted.”

    “Just like the guy who planned a terrorist attack in Oklahoma a few months ago? He was allegedly properly vetted.”

    ” I don’t want my children to share a neighborhood with people who are not properly vetted,” Vance continued.

    Brennan then tried to pivot, suggesting “It wasn’t clear if he was radicalized when he got here or while he was living here.”

    To which Vance shot back, “I don’t really care, Margaret.“

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsh/t Colin Rugg

    Vance also Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, for whom the VP cast the tie-breaking vote to push through his confirmation.

    “I think Pete is a disrupter, and a lot of people don’t like that disruption,” Vance said of the tight vote.

    “If you think about all of those bipartisan, massive votes, we have to ask ourselves, what did they get us?” Vance continued. “They got us a country where we fought many wars over the last 40 years, but haven’t won a war about as long as I’ve been alive.”

    According to Vance, Hegseth’s primary task will be “to fix the problems at the Department of Defense,” including increasing recruitment and fixing an “incredibly broken” weapons procurement process.

    “If you look at where we are with the rise of artificial intelligence, with the rise of drone technology and drone warfare, we have to really, top to bottom, change the way that we fund the procurement of weapons, the way that we arm our troops,” Vance said.

    Vance also said he’s “confident” that Tulsi Gabbard will be confirmed as director of national intelligence – brushing aside criticism she’s received, and saying she’ll “ultimately get through.” Vance described Gabbard as a “career military servant who’s had a classification at the highest levels for nearly two decades,” and “a person who I think is going to bring some trust back to the intelligence services.”

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    The Economy

    When asked how the Trump-Vance administration will help Americans’ pocketbooks, Vance cited “a number of  executive orders that have caused, already, jobs to start coming back into our country, which is a core part of lowering prices.”

    According to Vance, “Capital investment” will “help lower prices.”

    “You asked specifically what executive order is going to help lower prices, all of the stuff that we’ve done on energy, to explore more energy reserves, to develop more energy resources in the United States of America,” Vance said.

    “How does bacon get to the grocery store? It comes on trucks that are fueled by diesel fuel,” he continued. “If the diesel is way too expensive, the bacon is going to become more expensive. How do we grow the bacon? Our farmers need energy to produce it. So if we lower energy prices, we are going to see lower prices for consumers, and that is what we’re trying to fight for.”

    FEMA

    On Friday while touring the disaster zones from Hurricane Helene in North Carolina and the wildfires in Los Angeles, Donald Trump said that the Federal Emergency Management Agency was broken, and that he planned to sign an executive order that would “”begin the process of fundamentally reforming and overhauling FEMA, or maybe getting rid of FEMA.”

    Vance concurred, saing that FEMA “has often been a disaster,” criticizing the agency for not working “well enough with state and local officials to get resources to the people who need it.”

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    Watch the entire interview below:

    h/t Paul Villarreal

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/26/2025 – 21:35

  • CIA Admits COVID-19 "More Likely" Came From Chinese Lab
    CIA Admits COVID-19 “More Likely” Came From Chinese Lab

    Having been temporarily banned from Twitter, Facebook, and Google over ‘COVID conspiracy theories’ (when we first suggested in January 2020 that the fact there was a Level 4 virus lab in Wuhan was likely not a coincidence to the origin of COVID), and being accused by intel officials of being a propaganda spreading site, we couldn’t help but see the irony (and not rage, frustration, or desire for retribution), when the CIA itself confirmed this week that it found a lab origin “more likely” for the COVID-19 pandemic, joining two other top U.S. agencies that have previously made the assessment.

    “CIA assesses with low confidence that a research-related origin of the COVID-19 pandemic is more likely than a natural origin based on the available body of reporting,” a spokesperson for the agency said in a Jan. 25 statement to media outlets.

    More comical is the fact that, despite no actual physical evidence of a natural origin, the agency emphasized that it has “low confidence” in the assessment and still considers it plausible that the virus came from nature.

    The CIA will “continue to evaluate any available credible new intelligence reporting or open-source information that could change CIA’s assessment,” the spokesperson said.

    President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for CIA Director, John Ratcliffe, testifies before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on Capitol Hill in Washington on Jan. 15, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

    As Eva Fu reports for The Epoch Times, the assessment marks a shift in stance from the intelligence agency that has for years refrained from making a conclusion on the issue, citing lack of information.

    John Ratcliffe, the new CIA director, has long supported the lab leak possibility, telling a congressional panel in April 2023 that it’s the “only explanation” for the disease that has since killed millions around the globe.

    After gaining Senate confirmation, Ratcliffe told Breitbart News that addressing the pandemic origin would be a “day one” priority for him.

    “I’ve been on record, as you know, in saying I think our intelligence, our science, and our common sense all really dictates that the origins of COVID was a leak at the Wuhan Institute of Virology,” he said, adding that he plans to look at intelligence and get the agency “off the sidelines.”

    The international efforts to get more clarity about the source of the virus from China have made little headway.

    In late December 2024, the World Health Organization repeated a request for Beijing to share COVID-related data.

    “This is a moral and scientific imperative,” the organization said. “Without transparency, sharing, and cooperation among countries, the world cannot adequately prevent and prepare for future epidemics and pandemics.”

    In the years since the pandemic broke out from central Chinese city Wuhan, Beijing has silenced on-the-ground citizen journalists, doctors, and academics who sought to shed light on the issue or criticize the regime’s handling of the virus.

    Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), the Senate Intelligence Committee chairman, said he was pleased to see the CIA’s assessment.

    “I’ve said from the beginning that COVID likely originated in the Wuhan labs. Communist China covered it up and the liberal media covered for them,” he said in a Jan. 25 statement “Now, the most important thing is to make China pay for unleashing a plague on the world.”

    The FBI and the Energy Department have previously assessed that the virus had originated from a lab. The State Department, under the first Trump administration, said in a fact sheet that several researchers had fallen sick with COVID-like symptoms in the autumn of 2019, months before the pandemic exploded to a global scale.

    Leaked Chinese documents that The Epoch Times obtained also show that Chinese hospitals were treating patients with COVID-like symptoms months before the regime’s official timeline.

    “The Chinese government, it seems to me, has been doing its best to try to thwart and obfuscate the work here—the work that we’re doing, the work that our U.S. government and close foreign partners are doing. And that’s unfortunate for everybody,” then-FBI Director Christopher Wray said in early 2023.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/26/2025 – 20:25

  • Crank Your Amps To 11
    Crank Your Amps To 11

    By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

    In this industry we are always trying to decipher the signal from the noise. That is never easy, but the level of “noise” coming out of D.C. and elsewhere is making it extremely difficult to identify signals. Some weekend T-Reports write themselves (thankfully) and some are a struggle.

    • What economic data is relevant and indicative of potential trends going forward?
    • How much of the data is largely irrelevant if policies shift dramatically?

    The level of noise is so high that all I could think of was Spinal Tap and how they were fortunate that their amps went to 11, while everyone else’s only went to 10.

    Given all the hype surrounding the first 24 hours and all of the executive orders, I’m surprised that I am more confused, rather than less confused, by the trajectory of this administration (one week into it).

    Most Surprised by…

    Bitcoin. I am most surprised that Bitcoin isn’t a lot higher. This administration seems keen to embrace crypto. There is a lot of chatter about the potential for Bitcoin or crypto reserves. Is Bitcoin failing to break a lot higher because people believe that there are enough politicians in D.C. who think it isn’t a good idea (or even think that it is a bad idea) to use tax dollars to buy and hold crypto? Is there a belief that the crypto community can’t donate enough money to politicians to get some kind of a deal through? Or is the question on Kalshi too narrow and the reserve will include things other than just Bitcoin? We linked to that betting site in last weekend’s report – $Trump, TikTok, and Trea$urie$. Or, quite simply, has so much been priced in that we will need to see a lot more out of D.C. to get another big rally? If so, that has implications for the broader market.

    Least Surprised by…

    The number of responses on this month’s Around the World. Academy’s Geopolitical Intelligence Group weighed in on:

    • The Ceasefire in Gaza.
    • Iran Signing a Strategic Partnership Pact with Russia.
    • The Escalation in the War between Russia and Ukraine.
    • The Chinese Cyber Threat.
    • The U.S. “Engagement” with Greenland.

    Most Intrigued by…

    DeepSeek. Given all the “noise” around TikTok, you would think that would be a focus, but DeepSeek caught my attention. It seems like this AI model may have been out there for some time, but it exploded in my social media timeline this weekend. On the face of it, we have an AI tool that is cheaper to build and possibly better than existing AI platforms. The “catch” is that it is a Chinese developed AI engine. Given privacy concerns and the cyber threats, I cannot help but wonder who would (or should) use it?

    That is, assuming it is real. Periodically we used to get stories about some group achieving “cold fusion” that never turned out to be real, and lately, some similar claims about quantum computing have yet to pan out in reality.

    In any case, if extremely good AI can be built with “old school” chips, it would have a lot of ramifications for this market. It does seem unbelievable in some ways but reminds us of the discussion we’ve been having about China’s efforts to develop chips of their own.

    • The smallest chips require state of the art tech manufacturing to be built efficiently. However, small chips can be made inefficiently using old tech. It isn’t an efficient way to make the thinnest chips, but it can be accomplished to a degree, which is presumably how China is making some of its smallest chips (assuming they haven’t figured out how to get access to state of the art tech that the U.S. and others are trying to prevent China from obtaining).
    • The “packaging” (vertically stacking multiple chips) may play a bigger role in semiconductors continuing to adhere to Moore’s Law (or some variation of it) as opposed to just creating smaller and smaller chips. While packaging is also challenging, it is not necessarily “state of the art” challenging, which would reduce “our” lead over Chinese chipmakers.

    Given the importance of AI in our markets (if not yet in our economy), this “story” could be interesting (and also harkens back to the question at the end of the first section – how much is priced in already?).

    A Little Concerned by…

    Delinquencies. This is something we are digging into in more detail as it has become a common theme in more meetings. With student loan forgiveness becoming a thing of the past (it was never really a thing) and no real clarity on how things like not taxing tips will play out, there are more and more questions about some segments of the consumer. With hopes of much lower interest rates being dashed (for now) the concern about consumption is increasing (at least for those who didn’t load up on crypto).

    We are digging through the various metrics on delinquencies to figure out if this is something that should be a larger concern or not. The fact that it is coming up more in conversations means it definitely warrants some further digging. If it is true that consumers are stretched, then it shines a different light on what policies are needed, and how quickly they are needed, to ensure that the economic data doesn’t tumble.

    A recession isn’t on anyone’s mind right now, and maybe it should be? It surprised us by not showing up when everyone was talking about it, so maybe a recession will make a surprise entrance? Doubtful, but time to start digging into the data that is concerning and possibly difficult to turn around.

    A Little Confused by…

    Inflation. Too much to unpack here, but we are working on a chart package. Of all the economic data that will be influenced by policies out of D.C., inflation is the most significant, so maybe it is a fool’s errand to think too much about it, but here are some things that keep coming to mind:

    The owners equivalent rent (OER) is once again lagging virtually any “real time” measure of rent. This time around it is overstating rent inflation in CPI data. We discussed the quandary of Making Policy on Bad Data and that remains a concern.

    Can the president tell the Fed what to do? No. Can the president enact policies that reduce inflation and allow the Fed to cut? Yes, but that might be difficult.

    Is inflation simply oil? No, though the president, in my opinion, is not completely wrong to focus on getting oil prices lower as a strategy to lower inflation.

    What impact will tariffs and immigration policy have on inflation? We still don’t really know how these “day 1” policies are going to play out, so it is difficult to estimate. Frankly, what has been done on the tariff front and on immigration has been fairly benign. That may continue, though the risk of a hiccup on the tariff front is rising as so much (maybe too much) good news is being priced in.

    It is difficult enough to form good policy when the data is noisy, but when we are surrounded by even more noise out of D.C., it will be increasingly difficult not to make policy mistakes.

    Bottom Line

    Set your amps to 11 and prepare to deal with the noise! Fortunately, from a T-Report perspective, noise fits our 2025 theme of “messy, but manageable.”

    Expect weakness in both bonds and stocks in the coming days and weeks. So much good has been priced in that it will be difficult for bonds or stocks to surprise to the upside. We’ve been looking to Bitcoin as a “tell” and even that isn’t sending a strong buy signal any longer (even with mounting evidence that it should be).

    Caution is the order of the day as we try to filter the signal from the immense amount of noise and also get back to looking for the trends that will be difficult to turn around.

    Good luck and maybe before or after football today, it is worth finding and watching a good mockumentary – we could all use a laugh or two.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/26/2025 – 19:50

  • Watch: Angry Migrant Mob Blocks Dallas Traffic In Protest Of ICE Raids
    Watch: Angry Migrant Mob Blocks Dallas Traffic In Protest Of ICE Raids

    A mob of angry migrants blocked traffic on a major roadway in the Dallas metro area to protest President Trump’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids, which are targeting criminal illegal aliens and deporting them to their home countries.   

    Footage uploaded to X early Sunday evening shows a mob of what appears to be migrants yelling “F*ck Trump” while waving Mexican flags. They are disrupting traffic and obstructing local law enforcement.

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    Migrant uprisings are an ongoing risk as Trump’s illegal alien raids kick into high gear.  

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/26/2025 – 19:35

  • Hamas On Recruiting Drive Adds 15K Fighters Since War Began: US Intelligence
    Hamas On Recruiting Drive Adds 15K Fighters Since War Began: US Intelligence

    We’ve been documenting evidence which strongly suggests Hamas is far from being eradicated even after 475 days of war in the Gaza Strip. For example, on Saturday when four Israeli female captives were finally freed in exchange for 200 Palestinian prisoners, Hamas crowded a large city square with a well-armed battalion-sized force.

    And now newly revealed US intelligence has indicated that Hamas, a US-designated foreign terrorist organization, has actually been able to embark on a successful recruiting drive since the Israeli offensive began in Gaza in the wake of October 7.

    “The Palestinian militant group Hamas has recruited between 10,000 and 15,000 members since the start of its war with Israel, according to two congressional sources briefed on U.S. intelligence, suggesting the Iran-backed fighters could remain a persistent threat to Israel,” Reuters reports.

    Via NBC

    “The intelligence indicates a similar number of Hamas fighters have been killed during that period, the sources said,” the report continues. “The latest official U.S. estimates have not been previously reported.”

    Israeli government figures have put the number of Hamas dead at 20,000 or more. The group has been able to wage a guerilla insurgency using the Strip’s sprawling tunnel networks. Hamas sends small teams to ambush Israeli tank and infantry units, popping up from concealed tunnel entrances.

    Just days before Trump entered the White House for a second time, then Secretary of State Antony Blinken assessed, “Each time Israel completes its military operations and pulls back, Hamas militants regroup and re-emerge because there’s nothing else to fill the void.”

    President Trump is meanwhile taking a hawkish stance in his rhetoric, as expected. On the one hand he’s hailed the truce deal as a result of his early diplomacy, but on the other he has just declared that Gaza should be “cleaned out”…

    President Donald Trump said on Jan. 25 that he wants Egypt, Jordan, and other Arab nations to accept more Palestinian refugees from the Gaza Strip, with the goal of moving out enough of the war-torn area’s population to “just clean [it] out” and create a virtual clean slate of the Palestinian territory.

    As for Hamas’ ability to still recruit, many analysts have pointed out that each time Israel’s military occupies the Strip, more and more young people are radicalized.

    Scenes of Hamas openly parading around the Gaza Strip sporting combat rifles and gear…

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    It also remains that hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are internal refugees and are homeless. This is likely to contribute to the trend of men signing up to enter Hamas’ armed ranks.

    Trump’s ‘cleaning out’ Gaza would certainly complicated by the fact that Israel’s military would have to fully eradicate Hamas first – which is a tall order and something the IDF clearly has not been able to do up to this point.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/26/2025 – 19:15

  • The Algorithmic Age
    The Algorithmic Age

    Authored by Josh Stylman via The Brownstone Institute,

    Having explored the physical and psychological mechanisms of control in a previous article, and their deployment through cultural engineering in yet another article, we now turn to their ultimate evolution: the automation of consciousness control through digital systems.

    In my research on the tech-industrial complex, I’ve documented how today’s digital giants weren’t simply co-opted by power structures—many were potentially designed from their inception as tools for mass surveillance and social control. From Google’s origins in a DARPA-funded CIA project to Amazon’s founder Jeff Bezos’ familial ties to ARPA, these weren’t just successful startups that later aligned with government interests

    What Tavistock discovered through years of careful study—emotional resonance trumps facts, peer influence outweighs authority, and indirect manipulation succeeds where direct propaganda fails—now forms the foundational logic of social media algorithms. Facebook’s emotion manipulation study and Netflix’s A/B testing of thumbnails (explored in detail later) exemplify the digital automation of these century-old insights, as AI systems perform billions of real-time experiments, continuously refining the art of influence at an unprecedented scale.

    Just as Laurel Cc served as a physical space for steering culture, today’s digital platforms function as virtual laboratories for consciousness control—reaching further and operating with far greater precision. Social media platforms have scaled these principles through ‘influencer’ amplification and engagement metrics. The discovery that indirect influence outperforms direct propaganda now shapes how platforms subtly adjust content visibility. What once required years of meticulous psychological study can now be tested and optimized in real-time, with algorithms leveraging billions of interactions to perfect their methods of influence.

    The manipulation of music reflects a broader evolution in cultural control: what began with localized programming, like Laurel Canyon’s experiments in counterculture, has now transitioned into global, algorithmically-driven systems. These digital tools automate the same mechanisms, shaping consciousness on an unprecedented scale

    Netflix’s approach parallels Bernays’ manipulation principles in digital form—perhaps unsurprisingly, as co-founder Marc Randolph was Bernays’ great-nephew and Sigmund Freud’s great-grand-nephew. Where Bernays used focus groups to test messaging, Netflix conducts massive A/B testing of thumbnails and titles, showing different images to different users based on their psychological profiles.

    Their recommendation algorithm doesn’t just suggest content—it shapes viewing patterns by controlling visibility and context, similar to how Bernays orchestrated comprehensive promotional campaigns that shaped public perception through multiple channels. Just as Bernays understood how to create the perfect environment to sell products—like promoting music rooms in homes to sell pianos—Netflix crafts personalized interfaces that guide viewers toward specific content choices. Their approach to original content production similarly relies on analyzing mass psychological data to craft narratives for specific demographic segments.

    More insidiously, Netflix’s content strategy actively shapes social consciousness through selective promotion and burial of content. While films supporting establishment narratives receive prominent placement, documentaries questioning official accounts often find themselves buried in the platform’s least visible categories or excluded from recommendation algorithms entirely. Even successful films like What Is a Woman? faced systematic suppression across multiple platforms, demonstrating how digital gatekeepers can effectively erase challenging perspectives while maintaining the illusion of open access.

    I experienced this censorship firsthand. I was fortunate enough to serve as a producer for Anecdotals, directed by Jennifer Sharp, a film documenting Covid-19 vaccine injuries, including her own. YouTube removed it on Day One, claiming individuals couldn’t discuss their own vaccine experiences. Only after Senator Ron Johnson’s intervention was the film reinstated—a telling example of how platform censorship silences personal narratives that challenge official accounts.

    This gatekeeping extends across the digital landscape. By controlling which documentaries appear prominently, which foreign films reach American audiences, and which perspectives get highlighted in their original programming, platforms like Netflix act as cultural gatekeepers—just as Bernays managed public perception for his corporate clients. Where earlier systems relied on human gatekeepers to shape culture, streaming platforms use data analytics and recommendation algorithms to automate the steering of consciousness. The platform’s content strategy and promotion systems represent Bernays’ principles of psychological manipulation operating at an unprecedented scale.

    Reality TV: Engineering the Self 

    Before social media turned billions into their own content creators, Reality TV perfected the template for self-commodification. The Kardashians exemplified this transition: transforming from reality TV stars into digital-age influencers, they showed how to convert personal authenticity into a marketable brand. Their show didn’t just reshape societal norms around wealth and consumption—it provided a masterclass in abandoning genuine human experience for carefully curated performance. Audiences learned that being oneself was less valuable than becoming a brand, that authentic moments mattered less than engineered content, and that real relationships were secondary to networked influence.

    This transformation from person to persona would reach its apex with social media, where billions now willingly participate in their own behavioral modification. Users learn to suppress authentic expression in favor of algorithmic rewards, to filter genuine experience through the lens of potential content, and to value themselves not by internal measures but through metrics of likes and shares. What Reality TV pioneered—the voluntary surrender of privacy, the replacement of authentic self with marketable image, the transformation of life into content—social media would democratize at a global scale. Now anyone could become their own reality show, trading authenticity for engagement.

    Instagram epitomizes this transformation, training users to view their lives as content to be curated, their experiences as photo opportunities, and their memories as stories to be shared with the public. The platform’s ‘influencer’ economy turns authentic moments into marketing opportunities, teaching users to modify their actual behavior—where they go, what they eat, how they dress—to create content that algorithms will reward. This isn’t just sharing life online—it’s reshaping life itself to serve the digital marketplace.

    Even as these systems grow more pervasive, their limits are becoming increasingly visible. The same tools that enable manipulating cultural currents also reveal its fragility, as audiences begin to challenge manipulative narratives.

    Cracks in the System

    Despite its sophistication, the system of control is beginning to show cracks. Increasingly, the public is pushing back against blatant attempts at cultural engineering, as evidenced by current consumer and electoral rejections.

    Recent attempts at obvious cultural exploitation, such as corporate marketing campaigns and celebrity-driven narratives, have begun to fail, signaling a turning point in public tolerance for manipulation. When Bud Light and Target—companies with their own deep establishment connections—faced massive consumer backlash in 2023 over their social messaging campaigns, the speed and scale of the rejection marked a significant shift in consumer behavior. Major investment firms like BlackRock faced unprecedented pushback against ESG initiatives, seeing significant outflows that forced them to recalibrate their approach. Even celebrity influence lost its power to shape public opinion—when dozens of A-list celebrities united behind one candidate in the 2024 election, their coordinated endorsements not only failed to sway voters but may have backfired, suggesting a growing public fatigue with manufactured consensus.

    The public is increasingly recognizing these manipulation patterns. When viral videos expose dozens of news anchors reading identical scripts about ‘threats to our democracy,’ the facade of independent journalism crumbles, revealing the continued operation of systematic narrative control. Legacy media’s authority is crumbling, with frequent exposures of staged narratives and misrepresented sources revealing the persistence of centralized messaging systems.

    Even the fact-checking industry, designed to bolster official narratives, faces growing skepticism as people discover that these ‘independent’ arbiters of truth are often funded by the very power structures they claim to monitor. The supposed guardians of truth serve instead as enforcers of acceptable thought, their funding trails leading directly to the organizations they’re meant to oversee.

    The public awakening extends beyond corporate messaging to a broader realization that supposedly organic social changes are often engineered. For example, while most people only became aware of the Tavistock Institute through recent controversies about gender-affirming care, their reaction hints at a deeper realization: that cultural shifts long accepted as natural evolution might instead have institutional authors. Though few still understand Tavistock’s historic role in shaping culture since our grandparents’ time, a growing number of people are questioning whether seemingly spontaneous social transformations may have been, in fact, deliberately orchestrated.

    This growing recognition signals a fundamental shift: as audiences become more conscious of manipulation methods, the effectiveness of these control systems begins to diminish. Yet the system is designed to provoke intense emotional responses—the more outrageous the better—precisely to prevent critical analysis. By keeping the public in a constant state of reactionary outrage, whether defending or attacking figures like Trump or Musk, it successfully distracts from examining the underlying power structures these figures operate within. The heightened emotional state serves as a perfect shield against rational inquiry.

    Before examining today’s digital control mechanisms in detail, the evolution from Edison’s hardware monopolies to Tavistock’s psychological operations to today’s algorithmic control systems reveals more than a natural historical progression—it shows how each stage intentionally built upon the last to achieve the same goal. Physical control of media distribution evolved into psychological manipulation of content, which has now been automated through digital systems. As AI systems become more sophisticated, they don’t just automate these control mechanisms—they perfect them, learning and adapting in real time across billions of interactions.

    We can visualize how distinct domains of power—finance, media, intelligence, and culture—have converged into an integrated grid of social control. While these systems initially operated independently, they now function as a unified network, each reinforcing and amplifying the others. This framework, refined over a century, reaches its ultimate expression in the digital age, where algorithms automate what once required elaborate coordination between human authorities.

    The Digital Endgame

    Today’s digital platforms represent the culmination of control methods developed over the past century. Where their researchers once had to manually study group dynamics and psychological responses, AI systems now perform billions of real-time experiments, continuously refining their influence techniques through massive data analysis and behavioral tracking. What Thomas Edison achieved through physical control of films, modern tech companies now accomplish through algorithms and automated content moderation.

    The convergence of surveillance, algorithms, and financial systems represents not just an evolution in technique but an escalation in scope. This convergence appears by design. Consider that Facebook launched the same day DARPA shut down ‘LifeLog,‘ their project to track a person’s ‘entire existence’ online. Or that major tech platforms now employ numerous former intelligence operatives in their ‘Trust & Safety’ teams, determining what content gets amplified or suppressed. 

    Social media platforms capture detailed behavioral data, which algorithms analyze to predict and shape user actions. This data increasingly feeds into financial systems through credit scoring, targeted advertising, and emerging Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). Together, these create a closed loop where surveillance refines targeting, shapes economic incentives, and enforces compliance with dominant order norms at the most granular level.

    This evolution manifests in concrete ways:

    • Edison’s infrastructure monopoly became platform ownership

    • Tavistock’s psychology studies became social media algorithms

    • Operation Mockingbird’s media infiltration became automated content moderation

    • The Hays Code’s moral controls became ‘community guidelines

    More specifically, Edison’s original blueprint for control evolved into digital form:

    • His control of production equipment became platform ownership and cloud infrastructure

    • Theater distribution control became algorithmic visibility

    • Patent enforcement became Terms of Service

    • Financial blacklisting became demonetization

    • His definition of ‘authorized’ content became ‘community standards’”

    Edison’s patent monopoly allowed him to dictate which films could be shown and where—just as today’s tech platforms use Terms of Service, IP rights, and algorithmic visibility to determine what content reaches audiences. Where Edison could simply deny theaters access to films, modern platforms can quietly reduce visibility through “shadow banning” or demonetization.

    This evolution from manual to algorithmic control reflects a century of refinement. Where the Hays Code explicitly banned content, AI systems now subtly deprioritize it. Where Operation Mockingbird required human editors, recommendation algorithms now automatically shape information flow. The mechanisms haven’t disappeared—they’ve become invisible, automated, and far more effective.

    The Covid-19 pandemic demonstrated how thoroughly and quickly modern control systems could manufacture consensus and enforce compliance. Within weeks, established scientific principles about natural immunity, outdoor transmission, and focused protection were replaced by a new orthodoxy. 

    Social media algorithms were programmed to amplify fear-based content while suppressing alternative viewpoints, while news outlets coordinated messaging to maintain narrative control, and financial pressures ensured institutional compliance. 

    Just as Rockefeller’s early capture of medical institutions shaped the boundaries of acceptable knowledge a century ago, the pandemic response demonstrated how thoroughly this system could activate in a crisis. The same mechanisms that once defined ‘scientific’ versus ‘alternative’ medicine now determined which public health approaches could be discussed and which would be systematically suppressed. 

    The Great Barrington Declaration scientists found themselves erased not just through typical censorship, but through the invisible hand of algorithmic suppression—their views buried in search results, their discussions flagged as misinformation, their professional reputations questioned by coordinated media campaigns. This trifecta of suppression rendered dissenting perspectives effectively invisible, demonstrating how modern platforms can converge with state power to erase opposition while maintaining the illusion of independent oversight. Most users never realize what they’re not seeing—the most effective censorship is invisible to its targets.

    Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter offered a crack of light, exposing previously hidden practices like shadow banning and algorithmic content suppression through the release of the Twitter Files. These revelations demonstrated how thoroughly platforms had integrated government influence into their moderation policies—whether through direct pressure or voluntary compliance—erasing dissent under the guise of ‘maintaining community standards.’ Yet even Musk acknowledged the limits of free expression within this framework, stating that ‘freedom of speech doesn’t mean freedom of reach.’ This admission underscores the enduring reality: even under new leadership, platforms remain bound by the algorithms and incentives that shape visibility, influence, and economic viability.

    Perhaps the ultimate expression of this evolution is the proposed introduction of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), which transform social control mechanisms into financial infrastructure. The merger of ESG metrics with digital currency creates unprecedented granular control—every purchase, every transaction, every economic choice becomes subject to automated social compliance scoring. 

    This fusion of financial surveillance with behavioral control represents the ultimate expression of the control systems that began with Edison’s physical monopolies. By embedding surveillance into currency itself, governments and corporations gain the ability to monitor, restrict, and manipulate transactions based on compliance with official criteria—from carbon usage limits to diversity metrics to social credit scores. These systems could render dissent not just punishable, but economically impossible—restricting access to basic necessities like food, housing, and transportation for those who fail to comply with approved behaviors.

    What began with Tavistock’s careful study of mass psychology, tested through Facebook’s crude emotion experiments, and perfected through modern algorithmic systems, represents more than a century of evolving social control. Each stage built upon the last: from physical monopolies to psychological manipulation to digital automation. Today’s social media platforms don’t just study human behavior—they shape it algorithmically, automating mass psychological manipulation through billions of daily interactions.

    Unplugging from the Matrix: A Path Back to Reality

    Understanding these systems is the first step toward liberation. As the machinery of control reaches its peak, so too does the opportunity for resistance. The endgame for centralized power presents a paradox: the same systems designed to limit freedom also expose their own vulnerabilities. 

    While the evolution from Edison’s physical monopolies to today’s invisible algorithmic controls may feel overwhelming, it reveals a crucial truth: these mechanisms are constructed—and what is constructed can be dismantled or circumvented.

    We can already see glimmers of resistance. As I’ve observed in my investigation of Big Tech’s origins, people are increasingly demanding transparency and authenticity—and once they see these control systems, they don’t unsee them. Public backlash against obvious ideological sculpting—from corporate virtue-signaling campaigns to platform censorship—suggests an awakening to these methods of control. The public rejection of corporate news networks in favor of independent journalism, the mass exodus from manipulative social media platforms to decentralized alternatives, and the growing movement toward local community building all demonstrate how awareness leads to action.

    The rise of platforms committed to free speech, even within centralized systems, shows that alternatives to algorithmic manipulation are possible. By championing transparency, reducing reliance on automated content moderation, and supporting the open exchange of ideas, these platforms challenge the status quo and push back against the dominance of centralized narratives. Building on these principles, truly decentralized networks represent our best hope for resistance: by eliminating gatekeepers entirely, they offer the greatest potential to counter hierarchical control and empower authentic expression.

    The battle for freedom of consciousness is now our most fundamental struggle. Without it, we are not autonomous actors but non-player characters (NPCs) in someone else’s game, making seemingly free choices within carefully constructed parameters. Each time we question an algorithmic recommendation or seek out independent voices, we crack the control matrix. When we build in-person local communities and support decentralized platforms, we create spaces beyond algorithmic manipulation. These aren’t just acts of resistance—they’re steps toward reclaiming our autonomy as conscious human actors rather than programmed NPCs.

    The choice between authentic consciousness and programmed behavior requires daily discernment. We can passively consume curated content or actively seek diverse perspectives. We can accept algorithmic suggestions or consciously choose our information sources. We can isolate ourselves in digital bubbles or build real-world communities of resistance.

    Our liberation begins with recognition: these systems of control, though powerful, are not inevitable. They were constructed, and they can be dismantled. By embracing creativity, fostering authentic connection, and restoring our sovereignty, we don’t just resist the control matrix—we reclaim our fundamental right to author our own destiny. The future belongs to those aware enough to see the system, brave enough to reject it, and creative enough to build something better.

    *  *  *

    Essential Resources for Understanding Power and Influence

    Friends and readers often ask where they can learn more about the esoteric topics I explore, particularly the intersections of culture, power, and social control. This curated list of resources has been instrumental in shaping my understanding of how power structures operate, influence, and shape public consciousness. These works span disciplines—from history and psychology to investigative journalism and cultural critique.

    I share these not as a definitive roadmap but as an invitation to independent inquiry. In an era when algorithms increasingly shape what we see and think, engaging with diverse, well-researched perspectives becomes an act of empowerment. I hope the resources below serve as valuable starting points for those seeking to understand the deeper systems that shape our world.

    Books:

    1. Dave McGowan, Weird Scenes Inside the Canyon
      Detailed investigation of the Laurel Canyon music scene and its military/intelligence connections.
      https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/18681494-weird-scenes-inside-the-canyon
    2. John Coleman, The Tavistock Institute of Human Relations
      Inside perspective on one of the key architects of mass psychological manipulation.
      https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/7863459-the-tavistock-institute-of-human-relations?ref=nav_sb_ss_1_22
    3. John Coleman, The Committee of 300
      An exploration of the power structures shaping global policies, culture, and narratives.
      https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/105897.The_Committee_of_300
    4. Miles Copeland, The Game of Nations
      Insights from a former CIA operative on covert operations and manipulation of public perception.
      https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1344357.The_Game_of_Nations
    5. Daniel Estulin, Tavistock Institute: Social Engineering the Masses
      Contemporary analysis of ongoing influence operations.
      https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/29351771-tavistock-institute
    6. Edward Bernays, Propaganda
      A foundational work on the manipulation of public opinion and the psychology behind mass persuasion.
      https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/191140.Propaganda
    7. Neil Postman, Amusing Ourselves to Death
      An exploration of how entertainment and media shape public consciousness and discourse.
      https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/74034.Amusing_Ourselves_to_Death
    8. Marshall McLuhan, Understanding Media: The Extensions of Man
      A critical analysis of how media environments influence human perception and behavior.
      https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/61786.Understanding_Media
    9. Shoshana Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism
      In-depth exploration of how technology companies exploit personal data for control and profit.
      https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/26195941-the-age-of-surveillance-capitalism
    10. Mark Crispin Miller, Boxed In: The Culture of TV
      A critique of television as a medium of social and psychological control.
      https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1342360.Boxed_In
    11. Gore Vidal, Perpetual War for Perpetual Peace
      Essays on the military-industrial complex and its ties to media narratives.
      https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/53078.Perpetual_War_for_Perpetual_Peace
    12. Jay Dyer, Esoteric Hollywood (Parts 1 & 2)
      A deep dive into the occult, intelligence connections, and symbolic manipulation in Hollywood films.
      https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/32851888-esoteric-hollywood
    13. Tom O’Neill, Chaos: Charles Manson, the CIA, and the Secret History of the Sixties
      A riveting investigation into the CIA’s covert experiments and their connections to the counterculture and Charles Manson.
      https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/43015073-chaos
    14. The Memoirs of Billy Shears
      Presented as historical fiction, this book delves into the Paul McCartney replacement conspiracy, blending elements of autobiography, cultural critique, and an exploration of The Beatles’ role as a socially engineered phenomenon that shaped and redirected 20th-century youth culture.
      https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/31178916-the-memoirs-of-billy-shears
    15. Paul L. Williams, Operation Gladio: The Unholy Alliance Between the Vatican, the CIA, and the Mafia
      A detailed account of covert operations, propaganda, and the intelligence community’s hidden influence on global events.
      https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/22245430-operation-gladio
    16. Konstandinos Kalimtgis, Dope, Inc.: Britain’s Opium War Against the World
      An explosive investigation into the global drug trade, exposing its ties to elite financial and political institutions.
      https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/16145722-dope-inc 

    Essential Voices and Further Investigations:

    1. Mike Williams, Sage of Quay
      Comprehensive documentation of The Beatles, Tavistock, and their role in cultural manipulation.
      https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtimXpaec1UWO4lHSYNgfvg
    2. Michael Benz, Foundation for Freedom Online
      Current analysis of media manipulation and digital censorship infrastructure.
      https://foundationforfreedomonline.com
    3. Courtney Turner, The Courtney Turner Podcast
      Engaging conversations on cultural engineering, Tavistock’s legacy, and modern social control mechanisms.
      https://www.courtneyturner.com/podcast
    4. Jay Dyer, Jay’s Analysis Deep dives into Hollywood, esoteric symbolism, and the intersection of culture, power, and intelligence networks.
      https://jaysanalysis.com
    5. Solari Report – Catherine Austin Fitts
      A comprehensive resource exploring the financial, geopolitical, and systemic structures shaping global events, with unparalleled research into transparency, hidden systems, and actionable solutions.
      https://home.solari.com
    6. Whitney Webb, Unlimited Hangout
      Investigative reporting on intelligence agencies, corporate power, and media manipulation.
      https://unlimitedhangout.com
    7. Monica Perez, The Monica Perez Show
      Thought-provoking discussions on propaganda, psychological operations, and media narratives.
      https://monicaperezshow.com
    8. Sam Tripoli, Tin Foil Hat Podcast
      Unfiltered conversations exploring alternative theories, hidden histories, and systemic manipulation.
      https://samtripoli.com/tin-foil-hat
    9. William Ramsey Investigates
      In-depth examinations of occult influences, historical conspiracies, and intelligence operations shaping society.
      https://www.williamramseyinvestigates.com
    10. Adam Curtis, The Century of the Self (Documentary)
      A powerful visual journey through the evolution of psychological manipulation in media and advertising.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnPmg0R1M04

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/26/2025 – 18:40

  • Trump Fires 'Virtually Worthless' Inspectors General, Liz Warren Freaks Out Over 'Purge'
    Trump Fires ‘Virtually Worthless’ Inspectors General, Liz Warren Freaks Out Over ‘Purge’

    President Donald Trump fired at least a dozen ‘independent’ watchdogs known as inspectors general, who oversee government agencies – prompting immediate shrieking from the usual suspects who insist that the move is illegal.

    REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

    The ousters are likely to be one of Trump’s first major court battles since taking office – with at least one of the fired inspectors general, Cardell Richardson Sr. of the State Department – telling staff he’ll ignore Trump and show up to work on Monday, arguing that the firings are illegal, Politico reports, citing an anonymous source.

    Other fired inspectors general include those at State, Agriculture, Interior, Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, Education, Labor and Defense, the Small Business Administration, the Department of Energy, and the Environmental Protection Agency.

    The inspectors general at the Department of Justice, Office of Personnel Management, the Federal Communications Commission, the Export-Import Bank and the Department of Homeland Security remain in place, according to the person.

    The inspectors general were dismissed via emails from the White House Presidential Personnel Office, with no notice sent to lawmakers on Capitol Hill, who have pledged bipartisan support for the watchdogs, in advance of the firings, the person said. The emails gave no substantive explanation for the dismissals, with at least one citing “changing priorities” for the move, the person added. -Politico

    Speaking Saturday night aboard Air Force One, Trump told reporters that he didn’t know the inspectors general who were fired, but that “some people thought that some were unfair, or some were not doing the job,” and that the firings were “a very common thing to do.”

    When he was asked if he planned to install loyalists in their place, Trump said he didn’t “know anybody that would do that,” adding “We’ll put people in there that will be very good.”

    As the Epoch Times notes further, Hannibal Ware, the inspector general for the Small Business Administration (SBA) and chairperson of the Council of the Inspectors General on Integrity and Efficiency (CIGIE), said in a Jan. 24 letter sent to Sergio Gor, director of presidential personnel at the White House, objecting to a series of dismissal emails Gor had sent to a number of inspector generals—including to Ware.

    “I am writing in response to your email sent to me and other Inspectors General earlier this evening wherein you informed each of us that ‘due to changing priorities, your position as Inspector General … is terminated, effective immediately,’” Ware wrote in the letter to Gor.

    “At this point, we do not believe the actions taken are legally sufficient to dismiss Presidentially Appointed, Senate Confirmed Inspectors General,” Ware wrote.

    Ware said that the Inspector General Act of 1978 requires the president to notify Congress at least 30 days in advance of dismissal of an inspector general and that “substantive rationale, including detailed and case-specific reasons” for such terminations must be provided.

    Ware was confirmed to his role by the Senate in 2018. In 2024, President Joe Biden appointed Ware to also lead the Office of the Inspector General for the Social Security Administration. Ware’s eligibility to serve in the latter acting role, sans Senate confirmation, expired on Jan. 24.

    It’s unclear which inspectors general were told by the White House they are being fired.

    The White House has not confirmed the terminations and did not respond to a request for comment from The Epoch Times. An inquiry sent to Ware asking what further action the CIGIE is planning to take was also not returned.

    Congress established modern-era offices of inspectors general in response to government waste and fraud scandals in the 1970s. The role of inspectors general is to independently audit, inspect, and investigate government agencies to ensure accountability.

    There are currently 74 inspectors general and more than 14,000 employees within their offices, according to the Congressional Research Service.

    Reports of the dismissals sparked a number of critical reactions on the part of Democratic lawmakers.

    “Yesterday, in the dark of night, President Trump fired at least 12 independent Inspectors General at important federal agencies across the administration,” Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said on the Senate floor on Jan. 25.

    Schumer called it a “chilling purge” and added that the dismissals appear to be in violation of federal law.

    In a post on X, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) called the dismissals a “purge of independent watchdogs in the middle of the night” and accused Trump of “dismantling checks on his power and paving the way for widespread corruption.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Responding to Warren’s criticism, Trump supporter and attorney. Sidney Powell, defended the terminations.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “Existing IGs are virtually worthless,” Powell wrote in a post on X. “They may bring a few minor things to light but accomplish next to nothing. The whole system needs to be revamped!! They are toothless and protect the institution instead of the citizens.”

    Inspectors general often serve across multiple administrations, but during his first term, Trump fired five over the course of several months in 2020. In context of one of the dismissals, Trump said that it was within his executive authority to do so and that he believed inspectors general were in most cases “very political.”

    In 2022, Congress enhanced protections for inspectors general, limiting presidential authority to replace them and requiring detailed justifications for their removal.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/26/2025 – 18:05

  • Musk Exploring Blockchain Use To Curb US Govt Spending; Report
    Musk Exploring Blockchain Use To Curb US Govt Spending; Report

    Authored by Vince Quill via CoinTelegraph.com,

    Elon Musk, the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), is reportedly exploring implementations of blockchain technology in US government operations to track and reduce federal spending.

    According to Bloomberg, the DOGE is also looking at using blockchain to secure data, make payments, and manage buildings as part of the DOGE’s efficiency push.

    Personnel from the newly commissioned non-government department have also met with representatives from public permissionless blockchain networks to consult about potential use by the US government.

    The initiative is part of Musk’s broader goal of eliminating trillions of dollars from the annual federal budget and ensuring government accountability through transparency.

    US government spending vs. tax revenue. Source: Charlie Bilello

    Blockchain to force government transparency?

    Musk’s push to use blockchain technology to force government transparency is not a new idea in US politics.

    In April 2024, former Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said he wanted to put the entire federal budget onchain. The politician told an audience at a Michigan rally:

    “Every American can look at every budget item in the entire budget, anytime they want, 24 hours a day. We are going to have 300 million eyeballs on our budget. If somebody is spending $16,000 for a toilet seat, everybody will know about it.”

    Kennedy’s proposal was met with widespread support from small government and sound money advocates, who argued that US government spending was out of control.

    US national debt clock. Source: US Debt Clock

    Department of Government Efficiency takes first steps

    The Department of Government Efficiency launched its website on Jan. 21 and officially adopted the DOGE logo used by the world’s first memecoin, Dogecoin.

    Following the website’s launch, the price of Dogecoin rallied by approximately 11% to $0.38.

    On Jan. 20, former Presidential candidate, entrepreneur, and DOGE co-founder Vivek Ramaswamy announced he was stepping away from the project to focus on running for governor of Ohio.

    “I’m confident that Elon and his team will succeed in streamlining government,” Ramaswamy wrote in an X post, hinting at his plans to run for office in an official capacity.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/26/2025 – 17:30

  • Hartnett: These Are The 10 Biggest Themes In The Next 5 Years
    Hartnett: These Are The 10 Biggest Themes In The Next 5 Years

    There was a lot to unpack in Michael Hartnett’s latest Flow Show, in which he detailed the just released report from BofA’s thematic group analyzing “The Big 10 Themes for the Next 5 Years” (available to pro subs), and we’ll get to that in a bit, but first a quick recap of his latest qualitative observations which are for the most part, a continuation of his “bond bullish” theme discussed last week, with the CIO once again underscoring that there is a potential “twin peaks” in bond yields (5% on 30-year UST)…

    … but also in the US$ …

    … which he views as risk-on catalysts if gold rises above $2800/oz (just $30 away)…

    … and if the NYSE can rise above 20,500.

    That said, equity breadth still remains very poor (SPW/SPX & ACWX/SPX pinned to lows) but global PMIs are once again in expansion territory and rising >50

    … which when coupled with potential monetary policy divergence (Fed set to hike again as the RoW cutting), would result in  better breadth.

    Hartnett then looks at the latest BofA Private Client data, and finds that it maps perfectly into the Fed’s quarterly estimate for US household equity net worth ($55.7tn in 3Q24), which also reveals that US equity wealth was up $1.6tn in 4Q24, and set to gain another $1.9tn in 1Q25 (unless the market crashes).

    Taking a step back, the BofA strategist reveals that the bank’s high net worth clients are holding on to $3.9tn AUM, broken down into a near-record 63.2% in stocks, 18.8% in bonds, and 11.2% cash…

     

    … where Hartnett urges readers to note the contrast in position in “Magnificent 7” stocks ($430bn) vs. gold ($9bn); Another highlights: BofA’s private clients have been big bond buyers past 2 weeks (biggest since Jul’24), and remain buyers of stocks ($13bn since election, biggest 2-month add since 2022), while in ETFs, private clients buying bank loans, staples, discretionary, selling low-volatility, healthcare, resources past 4 weeks.

    Ok, but if the high net worth client list is already near record stock capacity, do they have the capacity to buy more? Well, looking at the source of funds – for future stock buying – Hartnett makes the following observations:

    Conventional wisdom is money market fund asset AUM, which is at a record $6.9tn…

    … will be a big 2025 source of funds for risk assets; But Hartnett warns that conventional wisdom will likely be disappointed as history shows MMFA inflows continue for 9 months after 1st Fed cut for 9 months, i.e. peak MMFA AUM will hit in June ’25, and the past 2 cycles of big Fed easing in ’09 & ’20 saw sharp drop in MMFA/cash but bonds & gold were big beneficiaries (bear markets & recession are when cash rates are slashed).

    Turning to “unconventional wisdom”, Hartnett notes that housing is a source of funds for both stocks & crypto, and especially now for the following reason: the US housing affordability index is hovering at 40-year lows, US home price-to-rent ratio close to all-time highs…

    … which has pushed the median age of the US first-time homebuyer to a  record-high 38 years old (was 29 years in 1985); As a result of this housing unaffordability, the millennial & Gen Z “can’t-buy-a-home” liquidity recycled into risk assets.

    All of this leads to a virtuous cycle: since the US economy has become “exceptionally” sensitive to asset prices in the post QE/financial crisis era … 

    … the higher equity net worth means more wealth that either supports consumption or is recycled into risk assets; for context, US household equity net worth is $55.7tn in 3Q24; and while the Fed has yet to release 4Q24 data (due in March) as noted above the BofA private client equity holdings data maps perfectly into Fed estimate of US household equity net worth, and it reveals equity wealth rose $1.6tn in 4Q24, and is set to gain another $1.9tn in 1Q25, which makes the stock market a self-fulfilling catalyst for “US exceptionalism”.

    Which then brings us to the punchline of the latest Flow Show: Hartnett recaps of the latest must read BofA thematic research report, looking at the “World In 2030″ (full note available to pro subscribers), and specifically what the bank thinks will be the 10 biggest themes in the next 5 years.

    We excerpt from the full must-read report:

    1. “Technology is eating the world”: Agentic AI + Reasoning + Rich Simulations + Embodied AI = Industry 6.0 which is minimizing human intervention.

    Summary: Technology is moving us to a new phase in the next 5 years. Powered by the AI revolution, we will watch technology prices plummet. We will see AI’s integration in all aspects of our lives. We will witness its game-changing role in leap-frogging innovation. Agentic AI will influence the job market, rich AI simulations will develop new products in healthcare, industrials and financial services. Furthermore, AI will interact with the physical environment, enabling the next generation of automation. At the same time, we are likely to see a tech war “arms race” between the Superpowers, complicated by accelerated deglobalization and tech protectionism, as well as privacy and demographic concerns.

    Welcome to Industry 6.0 – minimizing human intervention

    The AI large language model (LLM) revolution has accelerated the adoption of Industry 5.0, which aimed to build on the Industry 4.0 digitalization era by integrating “humancentric” approaches into industrial processes. Industry 5.0 emphasized collaboration between humans and advanced technologies, such as AI-driven robots, to optimize workplace processes. We are now seeing AI integrated in every aspect of our economy and our lives, and “humanizing” automated processes. This is moving us from the humanization era (Industry 5.0) to Industry 6.0, which aims to minimize human intervention by creating a fully integrated, intelligent manufacturing systems based on the next generation of technologies.

    1. Tech-onomy: Technologies powering themselves towards lower prices – Investments in automation, AI and tech are reducing prices across the board and increasing returns. For example, while drive capacity has risen by more than 20,000x in the past 20 years, the price per gigabyte has fallen by >99%. More technology gets deployed to satisfy demand, leading to falling prices. Then these technologies become cost-effective in new applications, feeding increased demand again.
    2. “Reasoning AI”: adding the human element, one step before AGI – AI model capabilities are expanding to include tasks that require reasoning. All LLMs thus far have used algorithms for tasks that can be solved with rapid thinking, with increasingly sophisticated versions owing to their emergent properties. However, the new versions of models, like OpenAI’s o1 and o3 models, can now break down complicated problems into separate tasks and hypothesis, using “reasoning” to get to a solution – like human thinking.
    3. Agentic AI: A world of 100bn AI agents working alongside us – Agentic AI is the next big trend in commercializing AI models. It is able to use reasoning capability and build upon that to choose and use the right tools to complete the tasks it is set. At our Transforming World Conference, Steve Brown gave examples such as a marketing plan or a travel booking. He described using AI agents as a way to scale an organization and transform a company’s workforce, as well as their ability to interact with other AI agents, e.g., to obtain an approval or review (e.g., legal or compliance). This doesn’t mean human workers would be completely out of the loop, in his view, but that AI agents could be partners or subordinates that work for humans.
    4. AI-enriched simulations changing industries –  AI-enriched simulations are being leveraged for other innovations; for example, simulation for drug discovery and material breakthroughs. AI has helped to discover 45x times more crystals ever known to man. Using AI in drug discovery facilitated the finding of a candidate for liver cancer in just 30 days. Many of our everyday products are complex and over time designers have come to rely on computer-driven simulations, but they often take time to run. Even once possibilities are found, additional simulations are needed to ensure safety. AI simulation combines techniques from quantum physics and deep learning to enable sampling a vast dataset quickly and efficiently. AI and simulation technologies bring the ability to take a molecular structure and simulate it billions of times, making small changes each time to see which structure is optimal. We can now do this in a matter of weeks and months – a task that would take 10 years in the physical world.
    5. Embodied AI, physical intelligence & humanoid robots – AI is enabling rapid progress in robots, given the ability to programme and interact with them via language models. The term “embodied AI” was first used to describe the branch of AI that focuses on how computers, systems and technology can interact with the physical world. It typically includes AI for sensorimotor skills, navigation, and realworld interactions. But with the rise of generative AI, embodied AI is also being used to give this technology a physical form, typically a robot including autonomous vehicles and drones. The next half a decade will be the breakthroughs years of robotics thanks to AI.
    6. Welcome to the quantum era. Quantum advantage as soon as 2025? We are currently in the early prototype phase of quantum. Scaling up a quantum computers’ qubit number involves solving for many problems such as error correction, cost, speed, and energy efficiency. Current quantum computing companies will need to solve these problems but will reach a limit on the qubit number they can achieve because of the complex architecture that they employ e.g., cabling and racks.
    7. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)…by 2028? AI smart enough to automate AI research to improve itself, providing feedback loops where superintelligence is possible. Since the first discussions about general AI and technological singularity by mathematician Von Neumann in the mid-20th century, scientists and technologists have repeatedly predicted the coming of human-level intelligent machines in the near term. NVDA’s CEO projected we will reach AGI by 2030, while futurist Steve Brown claimed it could be sooner than that in our Transforming World Conference, that AGI is between 1 year away and never being achieved. The assumption at the moment is 2027-28, as per company/press reports.

    * * *

    2. Peak Monopoly: Dominance of the “Magnificent 7” peaks as AI benefits broaden & politics pressures mega-caps via taxation and regulation.

    Summary: The US stock market has never been so concentrated, dominated by a handful of mega-cap companies, aka the “Magnificent 7”. However, the monopoly of capital and returns by monopolistic tech peaks in coming years as AI gains broaden to a much wider array of corporations, and populist politicians target the monopoly of megacap wealth via taxes & regulations to ease deficits and placate impact of AI on labour market.

    The bigger, the better

    AI has been the positive exogenous shock of the 2020s, as “Technology is eating the World” indicates. And AI has dominated investor bull psychology in the past two years encapsulated by the rise of the “Magnificent 7” (Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple,  Amazon, Google, Meta & Tesla). Even before the AI-shock, these seven companies had become the “leadership” of the US stock market driven by their first-class products, brands & management. Investors also rewarded their strong balance sheets that could withstand the rise in interest rates in the early-2020s, and their monopolistic market positions that guaranteed revenue streams and low-cost suppliers. AI has added to their lustre whether via ability to fund AI capex (Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta, Google spent US$62bn on capex in Q3’24), lead the provision of AI services (e.g., cloud computing), and provide the chips best suited to handle the computing required by AI (Nvidia).

    The combined market cap of the Magnificent 7 has risen to US$18tn, roughly equivalent to the GDP of China, and representing 35% of the market cap of the S&P 500. The US stock market is now the most concentrated in many, many decades.

    In the past two years nearly 60% of S&P 500 returns have been driven by these 7 companies (the number of companies outperforming the index has fallen to its lowest since 1998/99). In addition, the dominance of the “Magnificent 7” has caused the US to rise a record-high 67% of the global stock market capitalization and has led to big shifts in regional wealth concentration (Exhibit 26).

    3. Digital Insecurity: Ending the decade with the “death” of privacy, job market disruption, 10 deepfakes for every person on the planet and cybercrime as the 3rd largest GDP in the world.

    Summary: Many of us feel more anxious than ever before about technology risks given everything from cybersecurity hacks, AI agents displacing human workers, the rise of fake news and the spread of mis/disinformation through deepfakes, and social media addiction leading to loneliness. The global cost of cybercrime is expected to surge to US$15.63tn by 2029-30 (source: Statista). At the same time, an attempted deepfake attack occurs every 5 minutes (source: Onfido, Entrust). The number of deepfake videos has been doubling every 6 months since 2018 (source: Sensity, Information Matters). And deepfake damage costs are projected to reach US$40bn by 2027 (source: Deloitte). Finally, we need to reskill 1bn people by 2030, which is a third of all jobs worldwide, because of technology disruption (source: WEF, OECD).

    Cybersecurity: the digital black swan for 2030? – Cybersecurity is the #1 risk in a Transforming World because of how reliant we are on technology, in our view. Most of the world managed to get through COVID lockdowns and physically social distance, but would this have been possible without access to the digital world? The rise of Generative AI now creates a new ‘threatscape’. For example, using the compute power of 10,000+ A100 Nvidia GPUs to train ChatGPT, it would take just 1 second to crack a password today (source NetSec, Hive Systems). Hacks now take an average of 277 days or about 9 months to identify and contain (source: IBM). And cybersecurity is increasingly becoming a matter of national security, with critical infrastructure more vulnerable to attacks. The costs of cybercrime are eyewatering and set to hit US$10.5tn by 2025E, making it the world’s 3rd largest ‘economy’ behind only the US and China.

    4. More! Exponential growth of tech requiring more resources like infrastructure, compute, bandwidth, human capital, energy, water, skills, and data centers.

    Summary: A Transforming World has transforming needs. Exponential growth of technology will require significantly more resources and infrastructure, adding to the already growing requirements from population growth. The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) in particular is accelerating demand for data, computing power, bandwidth and expanded infrastructure such as energy, water, commodities and data centres. Several bottlenecks are already emerging in these areas, as well as gaps in the skills and human capital required to deliver them. New technologies and solutions are needed to avoid structural deficits between 2025 and 2030.

    Our Transforming World is hungry – and thirsty – for more

    Exponential technology requires a lot more of…everything: Simply put, deepening technology adoption alongside population growth means we need significantly more resources to enable the productivity gains and economic growth potential from AI and future technologies. The key investment opportunities in the next 5 years include:

    • Compute: AI is set to accelerate demand for more powerful chips such as GPUs, with the TAM for AI accelerators set to treble between 2024-2030 to c.US$360bn (BofA Global Research). Manufacturing capacity and supply chains are expanding to accommodate, with an overall market opportunity of over US$1tn (McKinsey).
    • Energy: increased power generation, storage and grid connections will be required for the electrification of industry, transport and buildings, adding c.7,000 TWh of electricity demand globally by 2030 (IEA). Within that, data centres could add c.250TWh in the US alone by 2030 (McKinsey).
    • Water: cooling data centres and advanced manufacturing adds demand to already strained freshwater supplies. Global data centres consumed 309m gallons of water a day on average in 2023, projected to rise to 468m by 2030 (Bluefield Research).
    • Metals: increased demand for critical minerals from AI, renewable energy and electric vehicles is expected to lead to structural shortages of several metals by 2030, including copper, nickel, lithium, cobalt and silver. Trade tensions are already increasing, such as China’s recent ban on exports of gallium and germanium – both required in semiconductor chip manufacturing (BofA Global Research).
    • Bandwidth: rising AI/tech adoption will stress internet infrastructure, requiring more fibre and advanced networks such as 5G, and beyond (6G, plus new satellitebased networks). In the US, the largest network provider, Verizon, said network traffic doubled between 2020-24, and it predicts it will double again between 2025 and 2030 owing to demand from AI tools (Bloomberg/Verizon).
    • Skills: shortages in skilled labour, e.g., in AI, data science and hardware engineering, could worsen in the next 5 years; 1bn people are set to retrain/reskill by 2030 owing to tech disruption (OECD).
    • Real Estate: more land will be needed to accommodate growing technology requirements. Per Bloomberg >7,000 public data centres are either built or in development, but more will be needed – ABI research forecasts 8,400 will be in operation by 2030 (vs 5,700 in 2024, and 3,600 in 2015).

    5. Rebuilding Everything: US$94tn of funding needed by 2040 to rebuild ageing assets and expand the infrastructure supporting tech.

    Summary: Global Infrastructure needs to be expanded and modernised to accommodate converging demographic, sustainability and innovation trends. But there’s a funding gap – US$94tn is required globally by 2040 (source: Oxford Economics), and an estimated US$500bn is needed each year by 2030 on top of available public funds (source: Brookfield). This spans several structural trends – including decarbonisation, electrification, disruptive technologies, reshoring, shifting demographics and ageing of existing assets – all requiring a significant increase in infrastructure investment.

    The long and winding road to nextgen infrastructure – The relationship between technology, economic growth and infrastructure is closely tied to both expansion and modernisation requirements.

    Addition: Expanding infrastructure to support digital technologies and several structural trends, including data centres, high-speed data networks, and energy installations to power them.

    Rebuilding ageing assets: Older infrastructure such as power grids, water systems and transport networks require replacement and modernisation to integrate new technologies such as IOT/sensors, AI monitoring and intervention.

    Energy transition: towards a decarbonised, decentralised, digital energy system The global energy system is transitioning towards more diversified sources of power generation and storage, which requires significant infrastructure and technology. Global investment trends are beginning to reflect this, with close to US$2tn invested in a range of clean energy assets in 2023 (double that of 2020). However, much more is needed. BNEF projects investment needs will rise to US$3tn per year based on current technologies/policies on average over 2023-30, and could reach US$5tn on average per year if further policies were instated. Power generation, EVs and grids made up c.90% of this investment in 2023, but the range of sectors is diversifying to clean industry (steel, ammonia, bioplastics), storage and electrified heat, for example

    6. The End of “Anything But Bonds”: Self-driven or market-imposed, era of government fiscal excess ends, reversing the primal “Anything but Bonds” theme in asset markets.

    Summary: The end of 5,000-year lows in interest rates, fiscal excess, inflation….the “Anything but Bonds” trade has been the most powerful Wall St trend of the past 5 years; in the next 5 years either self-driven or market-imposed, we believe the era of government fiscal excess ends, reversing “Anything but Bonds” pricing in asset markets.

    Big Government, Big Debt, Big Bond Bear

    Big government has been one of the biggest themes of the 2020s. Central banks dominated economic policy making for much of the past 30 years. Fiscal policy was secondary. Asset prices in the 2010s were particularly driven by extreme monetary policies such as Quantitative Easing, Zero Interest Rates, Negative Interest Rates. By the start of the 2020s, interest rates had fallen to 5000-year lows. This has changed dramatically in recent years as a global pandemic, wars, and fiscal excess ended the 40-year long bond bull market (1981-2020). Now both governments and central banks share responsibility for economic growth.

    The US federal budget deficit has averaged 9% of GDP in the past 5 years, the 2020s, with the past two administrations running the largest deficits since FDR in the ’30s/’40s. The US$7tn US government sector is now the 3rd largest economy in the world in GDP terms. Big government has aided and abetted big nominal GDP growth (up almost 50% in past 5 years). The trend is global. Governments running budget surpluses have become rare…last time China ran a budget surplus was 2007, US 2001, Japan 1992, France 1974, Italy 1905.

    7. Populism: “incumbents” were voted out in 26 of 32 elections in ’24…populism means less globalization, immigration, and central bank independence.

    Summary: Populism is politically very popular in the 2020s; populist policies in coming years mean less globalization, less immigration, less central bank independence, and fiscal policy divergence between the US (less government spending) & Europe (more government spending).

    A global political theme – Populism is politically on the rise in the 2020s. Occupy Wall Street, Brexit, Trump 1.0 were all harbingers in the 2010s, and the political trend has deepened in the 2020s. Electorates are increasingly shunning mainstream political leaders and parties in response to rising inflation, rising immigration, and rising inequality (the asset prices on Wall St are 6.7x the size of the GDP of Main St – Exhibit 68).

    In 2024, elections were held in countries that accounted for 40% of the world’s population, 60% of world GDP, and 80% of the world’s equity market cap. Trump’s sweep in the US Presidential election was the most consequential populist victory, but voters notably ousted “incumbents” in 26 of the 32 elections in 2024, a year that saw the share of votes won by mainstream parties fall to its lowest in the UK since 1918 in (57%), to its lowest level in France since 1945 (36% – Exhibit 69). The German election on February 23rd looks set to be the next populist milestone. The German economy has been stagnant for 10 years, and “far-left” and “far-right” parties have recently attracted over 40% of regional election votes.

    8. War & Peace: Protectionism to continue; but “forever wars” set to end & America First policies to spur Asian & European stimulus & reform.

    Summary: Global trade & tech protectionism is set to continue; for Trump, tariffs address “unfair trade practices”, raise US import duty revenues, achieve non-trade objectives; but the US “forever wars” are set to end to the benefit of Europe; and America First policies will spur Asian & European stimulus & reform.

    The End of Globalization

    The 1990-2010 era of peace and globalization has been replaced in the past 10 years by trade wars, military wars, greater geopolitical conflict. The US has become more protectionist, and the 2018-2019 trade war resulted in the largest rise in % of US duties collected since 1930 and Smoot-Hawley (Exhibit 74). And the US-China battle for economic, technological, geopolitical supremacy has disrupted global supply chains, causing China to shift its exports to the rest of the world, away from the US, EU, Japan – Exhibit 75), and giving birth to the early-2020s theme of reshoring.

    9. Rise of the Zoomers…and Boomers! US Boomers’ net wealth = c.80% of world GDP. In 2030, over-65s and Gen Zs could spend c.US$28tn combined.

    Summary: Over the next 10 years, we expect increased consumer spending, particularly from Gen Zs and the ageing Boomer population. Why?

    • Boomers have amassed significant wealth that they will unwind during their retirement. As an example, US Boomers have built US$82tn in net worth as of 2024 Q3 (source: Federal Reserve, Survey of Consumer Finances and Financial Accounts of the US). Globally, over-65s are projected to spend almost US$15tn a year by 2030, up from US$8.7tn in 2020 (source: Ageing Analytics Agency; Brookings).
    • Younger generations will benefit from the Great Wealth Transfer in the coming decades. Some US$84tn could be transferred to them from older generations by 2045 (source: Cerulli Associates).
    • Gen Zs will continue to represent the largest cohort of the global population over the next 10 years at c.30% (source: BofA Global Research, United Nations). Their global income levels are set to be the largest of all generations, increasing from US$9tn in 2023 to US$36tn in 2030E and US$74tn in 2040E (source: BofA Global Research, Euromonitor). This generation could also see the largest increase in spend of US$2.7tn between 2024 and 2030, reaching US$12.6tn (source: BofA Global Research, World Data Lab, Generations Forecasts, UN).

    With large wealth and spending levels over the next 10 years, the consumption patterns of Gen Zs and ageing Boomers will have a strong influence on the global economy. Gen Z’s preferences are shifting away from the old economy towards tech-compatibility, sustainability, and New Media. And an ageing population entails greater spend on healthcare, aged care, leisure and financials.

    10. Health The New Wealth: 10mn global health worker shortage by 2030. Ageing population stretching resources. Solution – Infusion of technology in biology.

    Summary: We believe healthcare is one of the industries set to be most impacted by AI over the next 5 years. AI drug discovery could shorten the time for R&D development from decades to weeks. And AI agents could fill the 10mn global health worker shortage expected by 2030 (source: WHO). However, it’s not just AI transforming healthcare but also demographic trends, with the focus on wellness. It is now a larger market than many other major industries including the green economy, IT, sports, and pharmaceuticals. Worth US$6.3tn today, wellness is 4x larger than the global pharmaceutical industry (US$1.6tn) and 30% larger than the green economy (US$4.8tn). GLP-1 will likely be a key ‘lifestyle’ enabler. By 2030, more Americans will have tried GLP-1 than the entire Canadian population today. Beyond treating obesity, we see many other sectors indirectly being impacted (consumer staples, food retailers, restaurants, apparel retail, gambling, alcohol, tobacco, senior living).

    Finally, here is a snapshot of the biggest beneficiaries of the 10 themes over the next 5 years.

    Much more in the full “The World in 2030” report (available to pro subscribers), and the full Flow Show (also available to pro subscribers).

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/26/2025 – 17:11

  • NATO, Sweden, Latvia On High Alert After Baltic Undersea Data Cable "Damaged"
    NATO, Sweden, Latvia On High Alert After Baltic Undersea Data Cable “Damaged”

    The third severing of an undersea cable in just three months occurred on Sunday, this time between Latvia and Sweden in the Baltic Sea. The incident has prompted a criminal investigation and heightened concerns of potential sabotage by Russia or China.

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    Latvia’s State Radio and Television Center, a data transmission provider, released this statement about the damaged cable connecting Ventspils in Latvia and Sweden’s Gotland island:

    In the early morning of January 26, the submarine fiber optic cable of the Latvian State Radio and Television Centre (hereinafter – LVRTC) in the Baltic Sea was damaged. The LVRTC Data Transmission Monitoring System recorded disruptions in data transmission services on the Ventspils – Gotland (Fårösund) section. LVRTC continues to provide services using other data transmission routes. Currently, there is a possible delay in data transmission speed, but it does not affect end users in Latvia for the most part.

    Prime Minister Evika Silina commented about the incident on X:

    Early morning today we received information that the data cable from Latvia to Sweden was damaged in the Baltic Sea, in the section that is located in the Exclusive economic zone of Sweden. We are working together with our Swedish Allies and NATO on investigating the incident, including to patrolling the area, as well as inspecting the vessels that were in the area. Authorities have intensified information exchange and started criminal investigation.

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    Sweden, Latvia, and NATO are on high alert:

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    Over the past 18 months, three alarming incidents have been reported in which commercial ships traveling to or from Russian ports are suspected of severing undersea cables in the Baltic region.

    Source: WaPo 

    Washington Post recently cited Western officials who said these cable incidents are likely maritime accidents – not sabotage by Russia and/or China. 

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    Due to all the cable severing risks, intentional and unintentional, a report from late November via TechCrunch said Meta planned a new “W” formation undersea cable route around the world to “avoid areas of geopolitical tension.” 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/26/2025 – 16:55

  • DOJ Asks Supreme Court To Freeze Student Debt, Environmental Cases
    DOJ Asks Supreme Court To Freeze Student Debt, Environmental Cases

    Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

    The Justice Department reversed the agency’s position on a redistricting dispute currently before the U.S. Supreme Court. At the same time, the department asked the justices to halt the processing of pending student loan and environmental regulation cases.

    The new court filings were issued on Jan. 24, days after President Donald Trump was inaugurated.

    Position changes in high-profile court cases often take place when a new party assumes the presidency. After President Joe Biden was inaugurated in January 2021, the Department of Justice (DOJ) also changed position on several court cases that were pending at the time.

    The DOJ’s new court filings leave the door open to the Supreme Court resuming processing of the student debt and environmental cases in the future, but also suggest the cases may become moot if the Trump administration decides to undo the Biden administration policies that prompted the various lawsuits.

    Acting Solicitor General Sarah M. Harris, who is currently the Trump administration’s top lawyer at the Supreme Court, said in a new court filing that the DOJ has changed its position in the redistricting case.

    She is also asking the court to halt all written briefing deadlines in the student loan case and two environmental cases, which would suspend the processing of those cases indefinitely. Before the court hears oral argument in a case, it typically asks the litigants to file briefs outlining the legal arguments they intend to make.

    In legal parlance, Harris filed motions to hold the briefing schedule in those three cases in abeyance. In other words, she asked the court to suspend briefings until the new administration can decide how to proceed.

    Trump has nominated attorney John Sauer as solicitor general. Sauer, who was Missouri’s solicitor general from 2017, represented Trump at the Supreme Court in his successful bid for immunity after being prosecuted for attempting to overturn the 2020 presidential election.

    Student Debt Case

    Harris filed an abeyance motion with the Supreme Court in U.S. Department of Education v. Career Colleges and Schools of Texas. The court granted the petition on Jan. 10. The oral argument has not been scheduled.

    An association of colleges challenged the Biden-era Department of Education’s rule establishing the procedures that student borrowers can follow to show that they were defrauded by the schools they attended and thereby qualify for student loan forgiveness. Some borrowers claim that schools committed fraud by using unethical recruitment tactics or by advertising exaggerated post-graduation job placement figures.

    A lower court issued a ruling halting the department-directed expansion of defenses that student loan borrowers can use to contest repayment.

    “After the change in Administration, the Acting Secretary of Education has determined that the Department should reassess the basis for and soundness of the Department’s borrower-defense regulations,” Harris wrote in the motion.

    California Emissions Dispute

    Harris filed an abeyance motion with the high court in Diamond Alternative Energy LLC v. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

    The Supreme Court agreed on Dec. 13, 2024, to decide whether it would revive a lawsuit filed by energy companies over California’s tough vehicle emissions standards. The court has not yet scheduled oral argument in the case.

    A lower court ruled that California had the authority to regulate tailpipe emissions. That court held that the energy companies bringing the legal action could not demonstrate that they had legal standing to sue, meaning they couldn’t show a strong enough connection to the claim to justify their participation in the lawsuit.

    Energy companies told the Supreme Court in their petition that they will suffer economic harm if California, whose state economy is large, is allowed to continue imposing vehicle emissions standards that are more stringent than those mandated by the federal government.

    California’s policy stances are influential, and several states have already adopted its regulatory framework for automobiles. California says its policies are needed to fight climate change by driving down demand for liquid fuel.

    “After the change in Administration, EPA’s Acting Administrator has determined that the agency should reassess the basis for and soundness of the 2022 reinstatement decision,” Harris wrote, referring to a regulatory action taken by the EPA.

    “Such a reassessment could obviate the need for this Court to determine whether petitioners had Article III standing to challenge that decision.”

    Article III of the U.S. Constitution governs federal courts and has been interpreted as stating those courts may only hear cases involving actual controversies in which at least one litigant has standing to sue.

    Other Environmental Cases

    The DOJ also asked the Supreme Court to pause the processing of two other cases that dispute EPA actions.

    Both are about the federal Clean Air Act, which provides that challenges to “nationally applicable regulations” may “be filed only” in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.

    In the first case, Oklahoma v. EPA, which has been consolidated with Pacificorp v. EPA, Oklahoma and other states argue that state disputes over EPA policies should be heard in regional circuit courts, rather than in the nation’s capital.

    The Supreme Court granted the petition on Oct. 21, 2024. No oral argument has yet been scheduled.

    At issue is the EPA’s “good neighbor” rule that cracks down on states whose industries are said to be contributing to smog.

    The Clean Air Act requires each state to adopt an implementation plan to comply with national standards, which the EPA then reviews, but in 2023, the agency drafted its own rule after rejecting 23 states’ plans for meeting national ozone standards.

    In February 2024, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit determined that challenges to EPA disapproval of the state plans could be filed only in the D.C. Circuit.

    The Supreme Court voted 5–4 on June 27, 2024, to temporarily put the EPA’s rule on hold. The court held that the emissions-reduction standards established by the EPA’s plan would probably cause irreversible harm to several of the affected states unless the plan were stayed until it could be reviewed by the lower courts.

    The states said the regulation was illegal, costly, and could lead to blackouts, while the EPA said the rule was urgently needed to fight air pollution. They said the EPA’s plan undermines the principles of the Clean Air Act.

    In the second case, EPA v. Calumet Shreveport Refining, oil refineries argue they should be exempted from a federal mandate that the gasoline they produce should be made with a percentage of ethanol.

    The Supreme Court approved the petition on Oct. 21, 2024. Oral argument has not been scheduled by the court.

    The EPA argued the case should be heard by the D.C. Circuit, but the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit found in November 2023 that it—and not the D.C. Circuit—was the proper forum for that appeal.

    Harris used identical language in part of the Oklahoma v. EPA abeyance motion and the EPA v. Calumet Shreveport Refining abeyance motion.

    “After the change in Administration, EPA’s Acting Administrator has determined that the agency should reassess the basis for and soundness of the underlying disapproval action,” Harris wrote. “Such a reassessment could obviate the need for this Court to determine the proper venue for challenges to that action.”

    Redistricting Case

    In the redistricting case, the Supreme Court decided on Nov. 4, 2024, the day before the presidential election, to take up the racial gerrymandering dispute known as Louisiana v. Callais, which was consolidated with the related case of Robinson v. Callais.

    Gerrymandering is the manipulation of electoral district boundaries to favor a particular party or constituency.

    A federal district judge in 2022 had ordered the Republican-controlled Louisiana State Legislature to revise its electoral map, which provided for one black-majority congressional district, because it discriminated against black voters, who constitute almost one-third of the state’s population.

    The Legislature complied, approving a new map that featured two black-majority districts. Map opponents told the Supreme Court in briefs that the new redistricting plan discriminated against non-black voters.

    A panel of three federal district judges then sided with the non-black voters, determining in April 2024 that the map could not be used in upcoming elections. The Supreme Court intervened and stayed that order, allowing the map to be used.

    Harris told the justices in a Jan. 24 letter that the Biden-era DOJ filed a friend-of-the-court brief on Dec. 23, 2024, arguing that there was “a strong basis in evidence” for the single federal district judge to believe a new map had to be drawn to bring the state into compliance with the federal Voting Rights Act. On Jan. 16, while Biden was still president, the DOJ also asked to participate in the oral argument of the case.

    But with “the change in Administration, the Department of Justice has reconsidered the government’s position in these cases,” and the Biden-era brief “no longer represents the position of the United States.”

    The DOJ is also “withdrawing its pending motion to participate in the oral argument,” Harris wrote.

    Oral argument in the case has not yet been scheduled.

    It is unclear when the Supreme Court will respond to the change in position in the redistricting case and to the abeyance motions.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/26/2025 – 16:20

  • Goldman Finds "More Nuclear & Fewer EVs" As Trump Supercharges Powering Up America Theme
    Goldman Finds “More Nuclear & Fewer EVs” As Trump Supercharges Powering Up America Theme

    There is a lot to unpack in Goldman’s note, “US Policy Implications: Reliability, AI/Data Center Power Surge, More Nuclear/Fewer EVs,” which discusses President Trump’s “energy emergency” executive orders alongside the private sector announcement of the Stargate AI infrastructure project. 

    Goldman analysts Brian Singer, Brendan Corbett, and others noted that despite President Trump’s executive order freezing all Inflation Reduction Act funding disbursements, they remain “bullish on multiple sustainable themes” because of corporate/consumer/policymaker/regulator priority:

    • Reliability of energy, power and water supply.

    • Efficiency innovation towards energy, land and resource use. AI/Data Center power demand growth and willingness by Big Tech/hyperscalers to pay Green Reliability Premiums in support of nuclear generation and multiple other Clean Reliable virtual/on-site power sourcing.

    • Increased embrace by Sustainable Investors of the need for AI and Automation to fill rising labor challenges accelerated by aging populations in developed economies with tailwinds for Reskilling/Education/Womenomics stocks.

    The team of analysts noted a convergence of multiple drivers impacting Sustainable Investing themes and the broader US economy in 2025 that only provides tailwinds for other themes, including “Reliability, Efficiency, AI/Automation, Training/Reskilling, Womenomics, and Affordability/Access. ” 

    They see tailwinds for Green Capex to support growth and infrastructure modernization… 

    The analysts next provided a breakdown of President Trump’s executive orders related to energy and AI announced last week:

    In the first days of the new US Administration, President Trump issued executive orders declaring a National Energy Emergency, reviewing wind energy permitting and promoting affordable/reliable energy and domestic natural resources.

    What was broadly consistent with our prior reports. Much of the policy and priorities were in-line with discussions in Washington in October, our post-election outlook and our 2025 outlook, in particular regarding:

    • Prioritizing acceleration of permitting processes for US energy/power/minerals development.

    • De-emphasis on EVs and offshore wind.

    • Suspension of further IRA loans/grants.

    • Broad support for nuclear.

    • Broad support for infrastructure/AI/data centers.

    What was not consistent with our prior reports. Beyond the topics discussed in our prior reports, the executive orders issued in the opening days of the Administration:

    • Call for a suspension of federal permitting for onshore wind projects pending the completion of a comprehensive assessment and review of Federal wind leasing and permitting practices.

    • Pause the disbursement of funds appropriated through the Inflation Reduction Act pending a 90-day review of processes, policies, and programs for issuing grants, loans, contracts, or any other financial disbursements of such appropriated funds for consistency with the law.

    • Supply and maintain a critical minerals National Defense Stockpile.

    Four investment takeaways for key 2025 themes.

    • In aggregate, the policy initiatives broadly support our bullish outlook for investment towards Reliability of power, energy and water which we believe will be a priority of regulators, policymakers, corporates and consumers.

    • The increased focus on affordability we believe is bullish for the broad theme of Efficiency — energy, resources and land.

    • Support for AI/data centers benefits companies in the supply chain of the AI/data center global power surge, in our view, including those providing low-carbon solutions.

    • At the same time there remain uncertainties, most importantly over the sustainability of IRA tax incentives and outlook for federal permitting of onshore wind. Not all onshore wind projects require federal permits, suggesting greater nuance regarding company-specific impact.

    The analysts turned their focus on “AI/data centers’ global power surge: Continue to see aggressive US/global growth, all-in approach to power sourcing.” This coincides with our “The Next AI Trade” note in April 2024.  

    Here’s more from the analysts about the data center power surge that will boost demand on the grids through the end of the decade:

    Our analysis suggests a 160%-165% increase in data center power demand by 2030 vs. 2023 levels. In the US, this implies that data centers will contribute a ~1% CAGR to overall US power demand; our Utilities team in its April 2024 report expects overall US power demand CAGR of 2.4% through 2030. We see data centers adding a 0.3% CAGR to overall global power demand. Our base case implies data center power demand moves from 1%-2% of overall global power demand to 3%-4% by 2030. In the US, the pace of mix increase is even greater, more than doubling by 2030 from 4% in 2023. If global data center growth in 2030 vs. 2023 levels were its own country, it would be a top 10 global power consumer.

    However.

    The analysts cautioned that, amid the surge in data center power demand, five potential constraints could pose significant risks to their updated base case of a 160% jump in global data center power demand growth in 2030 vs. 2023 levels: 

    1. Will AI server shipments be constrained by data center capacity? Our analysis led by our Telecom Infrastructure team suggests a tightening market for data center real estate in the coming years but sufficient capacity for our base case expectations for power demand.

    2. Will data center capacity be constrained by power infrastructure? Our analysis led by our Utilities team suggests a combination of new generation additions and greater utilization of existing capacity will be sufficient to meet data center power demand with transmission/interconnection the greatest risk. The investment split of the intended $500 bn Stargate project into AI servers vs. other infrastructure remains unclear. Broadly, we believe a $50 bn purchase of high-powered AI servers would lead to about 8-17 TWh of annual power demand, depending on power intensity of the servers purchased (new gen vs. older gen).

    3. Will power infrastructure be constrained by low-carbon optionality/cost? We believe Big Tech will continue to take an all-in approach to data center power sourcing, with continued willingness to pay Green Reliability Premiums while at the same time prioritizing time-to-market. We estimate the impact of major hyperscalers absorbing Green Reliability Premiums consistent with our recent AI/data center power surge report represents a modest 2%-3% of EBITDA and a minimal impact on >30% corporate returns. We note that Microsoft’s CEO noted continued intentions to achieve 2030 decarbonization objectives in a CNBC interview on January 22, and Amazon’s Chief Sustainability Officer was quoted in a press report as staying course on low-carbon goals.

    4. Will new-gen AI chips drive lower or higher aggregate power demand? We assume Big Tech cash flow/budgets will be the key constraint, leaving upside risk if there are no constraints and downside risk if compute speed demand is finite. We continue to see more risk to the upside (i.e., fewer capital constraints) while AI is in the training phase.

    5. Will AI server demand be constrained by AI results/innovations? This will remain key to watch, particularly from a Sustainability perspective whether we see accelerated efficiency solutions in the health care, energy, agriculture and education sectors.

    The analysts then shifted their focus on “underinvestment in infrastructure” amid tailwinds by the Trump administration, plus ongoing power demand shift higher: 

    We believe the confluence of rising power demand, historical underinvestment in infrastructure and rising temperatures/more extreme weather events will continue to drive rising tailwinds for investments in Reliability — primarily of Power/Energy and Water. We continue to see opportunity for investment in stocks levered to the theme globally, which we believe will be a priority for both policymakers and corporate/residential consumers.

    Infrastructure replacement and hardening both necessitate Reliability investment. Our meetings with corporates, regulators and policymakers in 2024 indicated increased recognition of the need for grid/water infrastructure hardening and modernization. This is due to both underinvestment in recent years as well as a wider range of expected temperatures between summer and winter. We believe both policymakers and regulators will look to reduce risk of outages and as such prioritize measures that would improve Reliability and Resiliency.

    Adaptation will likely be a rising theme regardless of climate outcome, in our view. We believe the growing realization of potential risks/impacts/opportunities as global temperatures rise will serve to further investor and corporate focus on Adaptation. Since 1970, the world has seen an acceleration in temperature rise vs. the 1850-1900 average, per Berkeley Earth data. In the near to medium term we believe investors and corporates will take increased measures to quantify physical risks, increase investments towards Adaptation mitigation/solutions and look for new ways of gaining exposure to Adaptation solutions. Our meetings with regulators and corporates suggest recognition of the need to invest to mitigate Reliability risk from extreme weather events or more volatile summer/winter temperatures via investment in water/power solutions.

    Generational growth will act as a further tailwind for infrastructure spending. We expect electricity demand growth in the US and Europe to accelerate to levels not seen in a generation, a function of electrification (Europe and US), AI/broader data center demand (US and Europe) and industrialization/reshoring (US). Also, with an eye on reducing risk of outages, we believe regulators will support investments to meet rising demand, with particular support for affordable technologies that advance meeting demand and reliability goals. We also see regionalization driving increased water infrastructure needs in select geographies.

    Reliability a driver of recent US power M&A. On January 10, Constellation Energy (CEG, Coverage Suspended) announced plans to acquire privately held company Calpine, which would fuse Constellation’s largely nuclear generation fleet with Calpine’s largely natural gas generation fleet. The companies in their statement announcing the deal highlighted the increased need for Reliability amid rising demand growth, in particular from data centers.

    Goldman’s Utilities Research teams provided their outlook on US electricity consumption…

    To conclude, the analysts said a more significant shift is underway within the Trump era: “Accelerated nuclear generation expansion combined with reductions in incentives for electric vehicles in the US may not derail overall Green Capex while potentially leading to net lower long-term carbon emissions.” 

    Let’s not forget that in December 2020, one of our major themes was the nuclear trade.

    Separately, on Saturday, we provided readers with Michael Hartnett’s latest Flow Show, which shows the 10 biggest themes through the end of the decade. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/26/2025 – 15:45

  • Stockman: America's Fiscal Doomsday Machine Must Be Stopped
    Stockman: America’s Fiscal Doomsday Machine Must Be Stopped

    Authored by David Stockman via the Brownstone Institute,

    The following is Chapter One of David Stockman’s latest book, “How to Cut $2 Trillion: A Blueprint From Ronald Reagan’s Budget Cutter to Musk, Ramaswamy and the DOGE Team.”

    The DOGE $2 trillion budget savings goal is crucial to the very future of constitutional democracy and capitalist prosperity in America. In fact, the soaring public debt is now so out of control that the Federal budget threatens to become a self-fueling financial doomsday machine.

    Recall this sequence.

    When Ronald Reagan was elected in 1980 on a call to bring the nation’s inflationary budget under control, the public debt was $930 billion and about 30 percent of GDP.

    By the time Donald Trump was elected the first time it had erupted to $20 trillion, which has now become $36 trillion and 125 percent of GDP. Moreover, by the end of this decade the Federal fiscal equation will be going supercritical without sweeping budget reductions at the level of the DOGE target. Thus, by FY 2034 the annual baseline deficit according to CBO will total $2.9 trillion and 7 percent of GDP.

    Yet even these enormous figures are based on a Rosy Scenario fairy tale. Namely, that Congress will never again adopt another spending increase or tax cut, including the impending $5 trillion extension of the expiring 2017 Trump tax cuts. It also conveniently assumes there will be no recessions, no inflation recurrence, no interest rate flare-ups nor any other economic crises for the remainder of this decade and forever thereafter.

    Furthermore, it presumes that these surging red ink totals and soaring debt service expenses would be copacetic in the bond pits just the same. That is, CBO inexplicably projects that 7 percent of GDP deficits and annual interest expense of $1.7 trillion or 4.1 percent of GDP by 2034 would be compatible with a weighted average yield on nearly $60 trillion of public debt of just 3.4 percent.

    Yes, and if dogs could whistle the world would be a chorus! Give the average yield just another 250 basis points, however, and now you have $3.1 trillion of annual debt service expense and a $4 trillion annual deficit by 2034. In short, there is a doom-loop building inside the Federal fiscal equation and nothing short of the DOGE target of $2 trillion of annual budget savings by the end of this decade can reverse its explosive materialization in the years beyond.

    If sweeping budget retrenchment does not occur soon, in fact, soaring interest expense will ignite a veritable fiscal wildfire. On paper, the public debt would power upward unabated to $150 trillion or 166 percent of GDP by mid-century (2054) under CBO’s current Rosy Scenario projections. Of course, long before the debt actually hits this staggering figure, the whole system would implode. Every remnant of America as we now know it would go down the tubes.

    So we need to be clear that the DOGE team of Musk and Ramaswamy must focus on savings of $2 trillion per year commencing relatively soon. That’s because the nation’s fiscal doomsday machine will be accumulating interest expense so fast as to make $2 trillion of savings spread over a longer period–such as a decade–little more than a rounding error. To wit, Federal interest expense has already passed the $1 trillion per year mark, will exceed $2 trillion per year in the early 2030s and would top $7.5 trillion per year at minimum by our calculations by mid-century.

    Stated differently, if something drastic is not done now—like a $2 trillion annual budget savings by the end of Donald Trump’s second term—America will be paying more interest on the public debt within 25 years than the entirety of today’s Federal budget. That’s right: Debt service will exceed current outlays for Social Security, defense, Medicare, education, highways, the national parks, Head Start, interest, and the Washington Monument, too.

    Obviously, the sprawling Federal government and its prodigious expanse of spending and debt literally defies easy comprehension and graspable solutions. After all, the current annual budget of $7 trillion amounts to Federal spending of nearly $20 billion per day and $830 million per hour. And when you talk about the 10-year budget outlook, comprehension literally fades away completely: The current CBO spending baseline for 2025-2034 amounts to $85 trillion or just shy of the annual GDP of the entirety of planet Earth this year.

    So based on experience we suggest that the DOGE team needs to build its $2 trillion case around a target year and several big buckets of savings by broad type. The latter can then be used to fashion a detailed but comprehensible blueprint for arraying and conveying the desperately needed housecleaning of the Federal budget that the DOGE has been tasked with accomplishing.

    In that context, FY 2029 makes the most sense as a target year since it would represent the 4th and outgoing Trump budget; and also one which would give sufficient time for phasing in some of the sweeping cuts that will be needed, but not so far in the distant future as to be largely irrelevant to the here and now of fiscal governance during Donald Trump’s second term.

    We’d also suggest three big buckets of savings, which we would short-hand as follows:

    • Slash the Fat… by eliminating unnecessary and wasteful agencies and bureaucrats wholesale.

    • Downsize the Muscle… by curtailing national security capacities and functions that have grown up during the Forever Wars but are not needed for an America First foreign policy.

    • Cut the Bone… by reducing low-priority entitlements and subsidies that the nation cannot afford, and which a reasonable view of societal equity does not require.

    Needless to say, when it comes to the vast wasteland of the Federal budget there are innumerable ways to skin the cat. But based on our own experience of more than a half-century of familiarity with the Federal budget as both a participant and an informed observer, we judge the following mix to be the most plausible and balanced way to get to the $2 trillion of annual savings by FY 2029.

    To be sure, even this relatively judicious mix is sure to ignite firestorms on the banks of the Potomac like never before, but it can be strongly justified and defended for the reasons we will lay out in detail below.

    Annual DOGE Savings Targets by Component:

    • Slash the Fat: $400 billion or 20 percent.

    • Downsize the Muscle: $500 billion or 25 percent.

    • Cut the Bone: $1.1 trillion or 55 percent.

    Suffice it here to say that the first bucket alone would leave them screaming to high heaven in the swamplands of DC. But even that $400 billion savings could be accomplished only by eliminating 16 agencies entirely, slashing another nine departments by 50 percent, cutting the balance of the nondefense payroll by 34 percent, terminating $40 billion per year worth of wasteful farmer subsidies, cancelling entirely $60 billion per year of energy boondoggles including all EV credits, and eliminating $150 billion per year of all other forms of corporate welfare and subsidies embedded in the budget and tax code.

    We will amplify the details of this $400 billion of inherent Federal budget fat and waste in the chapters below. But suffice it here to say that attacking the usual shock effect lists of outrageous studies, stupid foreign aid projects, or even payments to dead people, as is often used to illustrate wasteful spending, will get you barely a fractional decimal point of the savings target, as desirable as eliminating this nonsense might be in its own right.

    For instance, a recent “outrageous spending” list showed $4 million was wasted on “Dr. Fauci’s Transgender Monkey Study” and $6 million on a “USAID Fund to Boost Egyptian Tourism,” among countless more absurdities. Still, eliminating these two items would contribute only 0.0005 percent to the $2 trillion savings target.

    Even some of the larger ideas of this sort, such as timelier elimination of dead people from the Social Security rolls, would not get you very far, either. To be sure, 1.1 million Social Security recipients pass on to their rewards each year, while departing beneficiaries would be receiving an average benefit currently of $1,907 per month. So one extra month of dead people on the rolls costs the not inconsiderable sum of $2.1 billion.

    At the present time, however, not much excess dwell time actually happens. The rolls are purged every month based on newly filed death certificates, and this encompasses the termination of payments to anyone who died during the course of the month, including the last day. So the average duration on the rolls of Social Security decedents is 15 days, which computes to $1.050 billion of payments.

    Of course, if the Musk and Ramaswamy team could come up with some more super-duper software to monitor, report, calculate final month benefits and then terminate decedents in real time, it might reduce dwell time by two-thirds. In turn, this means that getting dead people off Social Security 10 days faster would generate a savings of $700 million per year or about 0.04 percent of the $2 trillion target. That is to say, there is undoubtedly room for efficiency improvements and elimination of outright waste and stupidity everywhere in the Federal budget, but it unfortunately adds up to rounding errors.

    Stated differently, if it doesn’t “scream and bleed” politically it won’t likely make a dent in achieving the $2 trillion goal. There is just plain nothing antiseptic about slashing the Federal budget.

    For instance, even a thundering 50 percent cut in the current nondefense Federal headcounts of 1.343 million would save just $100 billion annually by the target year of 2029. And that’s a comprehensive figure based on the current average cost per Federal employee of $100,000 in pay per year plus $44,000 in average benefits and fringes–-escalated for inflation to $160,000 per bureaucrat by FY 2029.

    Accordingly, to reach $2 trillion of annual savings will require a deep dive into the three buckets listed above. In the next five chapters we will lay out the most plausible and judicious route to the $400 billion of “Slash the Fat” savings, followed by the details and an America First rationale for cutting $500 billion per year of unneeded muscle from the national security budget in Chapter 7. Chapter 8 will then delve into $1.1 trillion per year of cuts from the bone of entitlement and domestic welfare that would be needed to reach the $2 trillion DOGE savings target.

    But one thing should be clear from the outset. Lists of outrageous anecdotal items provide color about the stupidity and waste that is rampant in the Federal government. But they have nothing whatsoever to do with the fact-based analysis and philosophical U-turns that will actually be required to complete the DOGE mission successfully.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/26/2025 – 15:10

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Jan 26

Today’s News 26th January 2025

  • Rubio Tells Chinese Counterpart That US Interests Come First
    Rubio Tells Chinese Counterpart That US Interests Come First

    Authored by Dorothy Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has told his Chinese counterpart that the Trump administration will prioritize American interest in its relationship with communist China, according to the State Department.

    Marco Rubio testifies before the Foreign Relations Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington on Jan. 15, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

    Rubio conveyed this message during a phone call on Jan. 24 with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, marking his first publicly known formal exchange with Wang as the top U.S. diplomat.

    Rubio emphasized that the Trump administration will pursue a relationship with China that “advances U.S. interests and puts the American people first,” according to the U.S. readout of the call.

    State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said the secretary “stressed the United States’ commitment to our allies in the region and serious concern over China’s coercive actions against Taiwan and in the South China Sea.”

    According to a summary of the call issued by China’s foreign ministry, Wang told Rubio that teams from both sides should implement the consensus reached during last week’s conversation between the two countries’ leaders, which had “pointed out the direction” and “established the tone” for Sino–U.S. relations.

    Wang reiterated the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) sovereignty claims over Taiwan, a self-ruled island that the regime has not ruled out using force to bring under its control.

    Wang also issued a veiled warning to Rubio, who was placed on Beijing’s sanctions list twice in 2020 for his human rights advocacy, saying that he hoped Rubio would “act accordingly” and “play a constructive role for the future of the people of China and the United States,” according to a translation by the Chinese ministry.

    Rubio characterized communist China as “the most potent and dangerous, near-peer adversary this nation has ever confronted” during his Senate confirmation hearing last week.

    Trump: US–China Relationship Needs to Be ‘Fair’

    The conversation between the two countries’ top diplomats comes less than a week after President Donald Trump was sworn in for a second term.

    Trump had invited CCP leader Xi Jinping to his inauguration in the U.S. Capitol, but the regime chose to send deputy leader Han Zheng as its special envoy for the event.

    Hours before his inauguration ceremony, Trump had a phone call with Xi that he later described as “very good” for both the United States and China.

    The president told reporters later on the day that he had received an invitation to visit China and that a trip this year could be possible.

    Earlier this week, Trump said that he believed under his administration, the United States will have “a very good relationship” with China.

    “All we want is fairness. We just want a level playing field,” the president told the attendees of the World Economic Forum summit in Davos via a video link.

    Highlighting the massive U.S. trade deficits with China, Trump said, “It’s just an unfair relationship, and we have to make it just fair.”

    “We don’t have to make it phenomenal. We have to make it a fair relationship,” he said. “Right now. It’s not a fair relationship.”

    The U.S. trade deficit with China reached $279.4 billion in 2023, according to the latest available data from the U.S. Commerce Department.

    During his presidential campaign, Trump floated the idea of imposing tariffs as high as 60 percent on Chinese imports.

    On Jan. 22, Trump said that an extra 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports could start as early as Feb. 1. The extra duties, according to the president, were based on the “fact that they’re sending fentanyl to Mexico and Canada.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/25/2025 – 23:20

  • How Consciousness Opens Doors To Higher Dimensions
    How Consciousness Opens Doors To Higher Dimensions

    Authored by Yuhong Dong M.D., Ph.D. & Makai Allbert via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Dr. Eben Alexander was at the height of his career as a neurosurgeon. With a doctorate in medicine from Duke University and a residency from Harvard, he believed he understood consciousness and the brain. However, on Nov. 10, 2008, a rare and severe bacterial infection attacked his brain, challenging everything he thought he knew.

    Illustration by The Epoch Times

    He fell into a coma and, seven days later, awakened with a complete physical recovery. Yet, while asleep, his mind was not idle. He recalls that his consciousness had gone to another dimension—a place furnished with clouds, shimmering beings, and ethereal sceneries.

    “I was in a place of clouds. Big, puffy, pink-white ones that showed up sharply against the deep blue-black sky. Higher than the clouds—immeasurably higher—flocks of transparent orbs, shimmering beings arced across the sky, leaving long, streamer-like lines behind them,” Alexander wrote in his book, “A Proof of Heaven.”

    “I witnessed all of that realm in all of its majesty,” Alexander recounted during an interview with The Epoch Times. “Though I didn’t know where I was or even what I was, I was absolutely sure of one thing: This place I’d suddenly found myself in was completely real,” he said.

    Similarly, Dr. Sam Parnia, a medical doctor and research scientist, observed that seven percent of resuscitated patients recounted visits to an unearthly dimension during their near-death experience (NDE)—an experience people sometimes have on the precipice of death and may remember after recovery. Further, Dr. Pim van Lommel, a cardiologist from the Netherlands, reported that 29 percent of people with NDEs describe entering a vast, beautiful realm beyond our physical reality.

    Illustration by The Epoch Times

    These shared elements have prompted experts to discuss the origin of consciousness. Can our consciousness be linked and travel to a dimension imperceptible to human eyes? While people of faith say they’ve had answers all along, medical doctors are still probing, and physicists claim they are close to finding the answer.

    Multiple Dimensions

    Physicists recognize that there may be numerous dimensions. Modern physics embraces the concept of multidimensional space and parallel universes as a serious scientific idea.

    Leading theories include string theory and M-theory. String theory posits that the fundamental building blocks of the universe are not just particles but tiny, vibrating filaments, or “strings.”

    Imagine analyzing an apple. As you magnify it, you discover layers of structure down to cells, molecules, and atoms. Conventional theories usually stop at subatomic particles. String theory posits that the infinitesimally small subatomic particles are actually strands of energy vibrating in different patterns, much like the strings of a violin. Each distinct vibration produces unique particles, creating a cosmic symphony that constitutes all matter.

    String theories are given credence because they provide a framework to unify the fundamental forces of nature—gravity, electromagnetic force, and nuclear force—into one consistent theory. However, string theory posits a universe with at least 10 dimensions, which is integral to its formulation and mathematical consistency.

    On a related note, M-theory is a concept in physics that combines different theories about tiny strings, which are thought to make up the fabric of the universe. It suggests 11 dimensions instead of the four we experience (three spatial dimensions of space—width, height, and depth—and one of time). M-theory aims to explain how the forces of nature, including gravity, work together in a single framework, making it a potential “theory of everything.”

    While the string and M-theories are mathematically rich and elegant frameworks that help explain certain aspects of particle physics and gravity, they do not have empirically verifiable predictions.

    Nevertheless, in the aggregate, these phenomena open the door to ideas about multi-dimensions. Other dimensions, though invisible, may exist simultaneously among us.

    Out of the ‘Painting’

    John Burke, who has a degree in engineering and authored multiple books on NDEs, offered an analogy: Imagine we lived inside a flat, two-dimensional black-and-white painting. In such a scenario, we would experience only length and width—up and down and side to side—but not depth.

    “We couldn’t even conceive of it,” he told The Epoch Times in an interview.

    Burke suggested that NDEs might be like our two-dimensional consciousness peeling away from that flat painting and entering a three-dimensional world—a realm that has always existed beyond our perception. From this new viewpoint, we could look back at our flat world and understand it as part of a greater dimensional reality.

    When our consciousness leaves the body, it’s likely to enter these wider, multi-dimensional spaces, Michael Pravica, who holds a doctorate in condensed matter physics from Harvard University and is a professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, told The Epoch Times.

    The Tunnel

    Individuals with NDEs often describe passing through a tunnel-like expanse with a light at the end before entering the other dimension.

    Ned Dougherty, a former director of the International Association for Near-Death Studies, wrote about his personal tunnel experience in his book, “Fast Lane to Heaven.” In it, he explains that after losing physical consciousness, he was drawn to an immense tunnel. At the distant opening of the tunnel, he saw another universe.

    “I pondered the purpose of the tunnel. It seemed to stretch from Earth into the universe for a distance measured in light years,” Dougherty wrote.

    Interestingly, the tunnels described by people who have had NDEs bear a striking resemblance to a concept explored in string theory, where wormholes connect different dimensions.

    Additionally, as discussed in Part 1 of this series, physicist Roger Penrose and anesthesiologist Stuart Hameroff proposed that microtubules in the brain may serve as quantum receivers of consciousness. These microtubules also have a unique structure akin to tunnel-like objects.

    Illustration by The Epoch Times

    In a 2022 study published in the Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Sam Parnia and a team of medical experts from prominent universities provided the first comprehensive medical consensus documenting the existence of NDEs.

    Notably, the team identified tunnel experiences as one of the main characteristics of NDEs.

    The tunnel, according to the study, appears to be a connection to another dimension, where people report seeing magnificent, luminous beings and relive their entire lives in a way unconstrained by time—a phenomenon called the “life review.”

    Timeless ‘Whole Life’

    Of 617 near-death experiences collected by the Near-Death Experience Research Foundation published in a 2014 study, 14 percent of the near-death experiencers experienced a life review. This experience felt like watching a stereoscopic movie of their life.

    Overall, 50 percent of near-death experience survivors in the 1976 Tangshan earthquake were reported to have experienced a life review.

    According to Bernard Carr, emeritus professor of mathematics and astronomy at Queen Mary University of London, many elements of NDEs, such as the tunnel phenomenon, intense light, and life reviews, align with the idea of transitioning through or interacting with higher dimensions. He interprets these experiences not as hallucinations or brain-generated phenomena but as glimpses into the true multidimensional nature of reality.

    In his book, “Evidence of the Afterlife” Dr. Jeffery Long, a practicing radiation oncologist, and researcher who has studied NDEs for more than 25 years, recorded a case of a man named Roger who was returning from Quebec City when he had an out-of-body experience during a car crash.

    “I then began to see my whole life unfolding before me like a film projected on a screen, from babyhood to adult life. It was so real!” Roger recalled.

    He said the experience was more realistic than a 3D movie, as he could sense the feelings of the people he interacted with over the years and the good or bad emotions he made them feel.

    Those who experience a life review during a near-death experience often recount it with a deep sense of realism. This includes re-experiencing long-forgotten events often confirmed to have occurred, as well as a deep understanding of the thoughts and feelings of others during past interactions.

    According to a study published in Missouri Medicine, these life reviews are consistently accurate. 

    Life reviews appear to access a dimension where all events are recorded in their entirety, and time flows differently—allowing the person to review their entire life instantly.

    The book “Lessons From the Light,” co-authored by Kenneth Ring, professor emeritus of psychology at the University of Connecticut, who published nearly 100 papers on NDEs, recorded a case of a man who reported re-experiencing every event in 22 years of his life.

    “The brightness showed me every second of all those years, in exquisite detail, in what seemed only an instant of time,” he said.

    “It’s a reliving of events, not just a remembering of events,” said Alexander. He explains that during the life review, if you had acted selfishly toward others during your lifetime, you would experience those events again, but now from the viewpoint of the people who experienced the suffering.

    He believes this is where the concept of “hell” originates—those who inflicted pain and suffering during their lives would have to confront and experience that same pain during the life review. This should nudge people to realize that “We’re really all in this together and need to take care of each other and get along,” he said.

    Read the rest here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/25/2025 – 22:45

  • 59% Of Americans Don't Have Enough Savings For A $1,000 Emergency: Report
    59% Of Americans Don’t Have Enough Savings For A $1,000 Emergency: Report

    Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Most Americans cannot afford a $1,000 emergency expense, with inflation and high interest rates affecting their ability to save adequately, according to a recent survey by consumer services company Bankrate.

    Organic produce for sale at a Ralph’s Supermarket in Irvine, Calif., on Nov. 28, 2016. Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images

    A full 59 percent of Americans aren’t in a position to use their savings “to pay for a major unexpected expense, such as $1,000 for an emergency room visit or car repair,” said a Jan. 23 report from the company.

    This is up from 56 percent a year back.

    “We are essentially a paycheck-to-paycheck nation,” said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate. “Fewer Americans have the equivalent of a financial safety net to cover inevitable unexpected expenses, despite low unemployment and steady growth.”

    To help alleviate the financial crunch, President Donald Trump issued an executive order for delivering “emergency price relief” for families and tackling the cost of living crisis facing America on his first day in office. The 12-month inflation rate, which has remained below 3 percent since July, has risen for the past three months.

    Bankrate said Americans have been struggling against a “number of economic headwinds” over the past several years, including a slowing job market and high inflation.

    In the survey, 73 percent of respondents blamed inflation, high interest rates, or a change in income or employment status as reasons why they were saving less to meet unforeseen expenses. This is up from 68 percent last year.

    According to data tracked by the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the average city price of a dozen Grade A large eggs has risen by more than 182 percent between January 2021 and December 2024. The price of ground beef per pound is up by 41 percent, fresh whole chicken by nearly 30 percent, whole fortified fresh milk per gallon by 18 percent, and white pan bread per pound by almost 24 percent.

    A quarter of respondents said they would have to fund $1,000 in emergency expenses by financing it with a credit card and paying off the debt over time. This is up from 21 percent in 2024.

    Hamrick said the increase in cost of living is “prompting more individuals and households to turn to credit cards when in a bind.”

    “They are a terrific tool when used wisely and effectively. But with interest rates still high, we need to avoid a deepening debt burden which could make it more challenging to save.”

    High Cost of Living

    The Trump executive order blamed the prior administration’s vast government spending, overregulation, and “destructive” policies for pushing Americans into an inflation crisis.

    “Hardworking families today are overwhelmed by the cost of fuel, food, housing, automobiles, medical care, utilities, and insurance,” said the order.

    Trump directed the heads of all executives and agencies to look for ways to cut down housing costs and boost supply, eliminate practices that raise health care costs, eliminate any requirements that contribute to higher home appliance prices, and get rid of harmful climate policies that increase the costs of fuel and food.

    The cost of living crisis among Americans developed while the savings rate has gone down. Since 2022, the personal saving rate of U.S. citizens has mostly remained below 5 percent. Prior to the pandemic, the rate largely was above the 5 percent level.

    A recent survey from Marist Poll and Yahoo Finance showed that only one in 10 banked households were “completely satisfied” with their amount of savings.

    The rising cost of living was cited as the biggest hurdle to saving more, with two in three households saying these expenses are “not very affordable or not affordable at all” in their area.

    “Looking to 2025, banked households are cautiously optimistic about their savings. A plurality (44 percent) think they will be able to save more money, and 32 percent believe they will save about the same in the coming year. 24 percent think they will save less money,” said the survey.

    “Six in ten banked households in America (60 percent) are more optimistic about their finances in the coming year with Donald Trump as President. There is cross-generational consensus on this question, with a majority in every generation saying they are more optimistic. Gen Z (70 percent) is the most optimistic.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/25/2025 – 22:10

  • US Passed Secret Intelligence To AQ-Linked Rulers Of Syria: WaPo
    US Passed Secret Intelligence To AQ-Linked Rulers Of Syria: WaPo

    Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which rules Syria from Damascus under Jolani, is still a designated Foreign Terrorist Organization under US law. The only change which happened at the end of the Biden administration was that the US $10 million bounty on Jolani’s head was removed, at a moment Western officials have engaged the new regime in Damascus on a diplomatic level.

    But The Washington Post has just revealed that American intelligence officials met with HTS representatives and passed them classified intelligence information. This happened during the tail-end of the Biden White House.

    The Washington Post report begins, “In the chaotic days after the fall of [Bashar] al-Assad, the Biden administration began to engage cautiously with HTS and its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Julani.”

    Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, via AFP.

    “The intelligence exchange with HTS has occurred in direct encounters between US intelligence officials and representatives of HTS, rather than via third parties.” The Post continues.

    The report adds that this “has involved exchanges between the two sides, in Syria and a third country. It began roughly two weeks after HTS came to power on Dec. 8.”

    This is being presented by US officials as to combat threats being presented by a resurgent ISIS. For example, there have been recent reported plots against a key Shia religious pilgrimage site on the outskirts of Damascus, the Sayyidah Zaynab Mosque.

    “In at least one case, the U.S. intelligence helped thwart an ISIS plot to attack a religious shrine outside Damascus earlier this month, according to the officials,” the WaPo report says.

    The serious contradiction in all of this is that American companies and citizens are still unable to do business or any interactions with Syrian entities under US counterterrorism laws and due to the long-existent sanctions. And yet, US intelligence is passing on classified information to Syrian leaders despite the terror designation and ongoing sanctions.

    The other glaring contradiction is that the separation between HTS and ISIS ideology is thin and slim. Jolani himself was once the personal emissary of ISIS chief pf Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in the early days of the anti-Assad war for regime change.

    AntiWar.com has written the following review:

    HTS grew out of the al-Nusra Front, an organization that Julani formed in 2009 in coordination with al-Qaeda’s central leadership. Juliani is a veteran of the Iraq War, where he fought for al-Qaeda in Iraq against US forces.

    Even with this background, the Biden administration elected to try to develop ties with Julani. “It’s the right, prudent and appropriate thing to do, given that there was credible, specific information [about ISIS threats], and coupled with our efforts to cultivate a relationship with these guys,” one former US official told The Post.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    We’ve documented previously that in some cases ISIS fighters have simply changed out their black flag patch for a HTS logo: Watch: Syrian ‘Moderate Rebel’ Removes ISIS Patch At Prompting Of American Journalist.

    Foreign fighters have also continued to thrive in post-Assad Syria, with reports of global jihadists terrorizing and pressuring Christians, Alawites, and Druze – most often in the countryside and far away from international media cameras. The US State Department in the early years of the Syrian war acknowledged that tens of thousands of foreign jihadists poured across the borders of Iraq, Jordan, and Iraq to fight Assad forces.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/25/2025 – 21:00

  • New Documents: Hunter Biden's Name, Signature Tied To $60 Million Fraud Investigation
    New Documents: Hunter Biden’s Name, Signature Tied To $60 Million Fraud Investigation

    Recently pardoned Hunter Biden has once again found himself at the center of controversy, as newly surfaced bank records and corporate documents indicate that a shared bank account linked to the future first son was used in a fraudulent bond transaction tied to Burnham Asset Management. The firm was involved in a million-dollar securities fraud that saw two of Biden’s business partners arrested and convicted – while Hunter escaped accountability, Just the News reports.

    Huntr’s former business partners, Devon Archer and Jason Galanis, were convicted for their roles in a scheme that defrauded an Oglala Sioux Native American tribal entity of tens of millions of dollars. Federal authorities found that instead of investing the funds as promised, Archer, Galanis, and their associates misappropriated the bond proceeds.

    While Archer and Galanis faced prosecution, Hunter quickly faded into the bushes, telling lawmakers in his impeachment inquiry deposition that his proposed role in the company “never came to fruition.” However, bank records and a signature analysis reveal that Biden was more entangled with the firm than he has publicly acknowledged.

    A Shared Bank Account Used in the Scheme

    Records show that a bank account linked to Biden and Archer – Rosemont Seneca Bohai, LLC (RSB) – was directly involved in the fraudulent bond transaction. According to a source close to the transaction, the bonds were transferred to and from the RSB account, possibly to capitalize on the Biden name – a pattern consistent with House Republican claims that Hunter Biden leveraged his last name for lucrative deals.

    Last year Just the News reported the first evidence that the younger Biden was much more closely associated with the entities involved in the tribal bonds fraud. Corporate records show that Hunter Biden served as Vice Chairman of Burnham and was promised an $800,000 yearly salary. A signature analysis confirmed Biden signed the employment agreement with Burnham dated April 15, 2015. 

    These documents were first collected by the SEC and FBI agents back in 2016, obtained by Congress during the impeachment inquiry, and recently shared with Just the News. New documents from the same probe of the tribal bond fraud show that Hunter Biden was closer to the action than previously known. 

    For example, a bank account he shared with one business partner was used in part of the bond transaction scrutinized by federal authorities. One individual close to the bond transaction told Just the News that the bonds were transferred to and from the RSB account to associate them specifically with the Biden name, evoking a pattern identified by House Republican investigators that suggested Hunter Biden was trading on his last name to secure lucrative deals. -Just the News

    While Hunter Biden’s former attorney George Mesires, argued that his client’s name was used without his knowledge…

    “The defendants…invoked and used Hunter’s name—without his knowledge—to lend their business venture more credibility,” Mesires said. “As soon as Hunter learned of the illegal conduct, and that his name was being used in this unauthorized and inappropriate manner, Hunter took immediate steps to ensure that his business interests would not be associated with the Burnham Group or with any of the defendants.”

    …however congressional testimony from Archer tells a different story. Archer testified that Biden was not only involved but held the position of corporate secretary at RSB and had “a handshake 50-50 ownership” of the entity.

    Additionally, the RSB account was the primary conduit for Biden’s payments from Burisma Holdings, the controversial Ukrainian energy company at the center of Republican allegations that the Biden family engaged in influence peddling.

    Hunter Biden Floated as a Board Member

    Beyond the bank transactions, draft documents obtained by investigators suggest that Hunter Biden was considered for a leadership role in the bond transaction itself. A draft private placement memorandum for the Wakpamni Lake Community bond offering lists Biden as a potential board member for the issuing entity, Sovereign Re Capital Holdings Inc.

    The document, which was reviewed by Just the News, describes Biden’s credentials, including his tenure at Boies, Schiller, Flexner, LLP, his work with Rosemont Seneca firms, and his position as Honorary Co-Chair of the 2009 Presidential Inaugural Committee – the same year his father became vice president.

    It remains unclear whether this proposed role was finalized or if Biden actively participated in the bond deal. However, during Archer’s trial, his defense attorney, Matthew L. Schwartz, asserted that “Hunter Biden was part of this deal.”

    Hunter Biden’s legal team disputed this claim, maintaining that he was never actively involved in Burnham or the fraudulent transactions.

    Biden’s Testimony and Congressional Scrutiny

    During his 2024 impeachment inquiry deposition, Biden reiterated his stance that his involvement in Burnham “never came to fruition.”

    Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) directly questioned Biden on the matter:

    • Biggs: “Did you have any active participation in Burnham, either as an equity holder, director, or officer?”

    • Biden: “No. I don’t think that ever came to fruition. I think that there was a proposal that I’d be a part of that, but it all fell apart in all of this.”

    Despite his denials, congressional Republicans remain skeptical. With President Joe Biden’s recent sweeping pardon covering Hunter Biden’s actions from 2014 to the present, some lawmakers are looking for alternative legal avenues to continue their investigations.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Could Hunter Biden Be Forced to Testify Again?

    One avenue that Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) has floated is compelling Hunter Biden to testify again—this time without Fifth Amendment protections.

    “With Hunter Biden’s pardon, he has no Fifth Amendment right not to testify and tell the truth,” Johnson said in an interview on John Solomon Reports. “So he could be… prosecuted for lying to Congress. He’s going to have to answer truthfully. So that’s a real possibility.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    House Republicans are now weighing their next steps considering Hunter’s massive pardon in December, the investigation remains far from over. With documented financial transactions, corporate records, and sworn testimony painting an increasingly complicated picture, the Biden family’s business dealings continue to fuel questions about influence peddling and financial transparency.

    As Just the News notes further, one Senator believes it may be possible to bring Hunter Biden back for more questioning. Now that he is protected by his father’s expansive pardon, Senator Ron Johnson, R-Wis., says Hunter Biden cannot exercise his fifth amendment right to avoid incriminating himself. 

    “But what is interesting is, with Hunter Biden’s pardon, he has no Fifth Amendment right not to testify and tell the truth, and so he could be, we could prosecute him for lying to Congress,” Sen. Johnson told the John Solomon Reports podcast earlier this month. “He’s going to have to answer truthfully. So that’s a real possibility.” 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/25/2025 – 20:25

  • Experts Warn Of China's Escalating Cyberattacks On Japan And US Defenses
    Experts Warn Of China’s Escalating Cyberattacks On Japan And US Defenses

    Authored by Sean Tseng and Jon Sun via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Chinese cyberattacks on Japan’s defense, aerospace, and advanced technology sectors are increasing at an alarming rate, indicating what experts refer to as a broader strategy to undermine the technological and military strengths of democratic nations, particularly the United States.

    A hooded man holds a laptop computer as cyber code is projected on him in this photo illustration on May 13, 2017. Kacper Pempel/Reuters

    The Japanese National Police Agency (NPA) has reported 210 such incursions since 2019, fueling calls for tougher legal frameworks and closer international coordination to protect critical infrastructure.

    The NPA identified the hacker group MirrorFace, which shares traits with Advanced Persistent Threat 10, or APT10, a group linked to China’s Ministry of State Security. The agency noted that the timing of the cyberattacks frequently coincided with standard working hours in China and excluded Chinese holidays, leading authorities to believe that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been supporting such attacks. 

    The NPA has observed that these increasing cyberattacks have been carried out in three phases.

    The first phase lasted from December 2019 to July 2023. Government entities, think tanks, and the media were primarily targeted, indicating an attempt to sway policy and public sentiment.

    The second phase, from February to October 2023, marked a shift toward semiconductors, manufacturing, and academic institutions, focusing on Japan’s technological hub.

    The third phase, starting in June 2024, has seen a resurgence in targeting academia, politicians, and the media, reflecting an ongoing effort to influence public discourse and shape policies.

    Japan’s 2024 Defense White Paper found that the Chinese military’s cyber warfare unit had emerged from the former Strategic Support Force, which had around 175,000 personnel, including 30,000 dedicated to cyberattacks.

    A high-profile target was the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). Hackers exploited VPN vulnerabilities to break into its Microsoft 365 Cloud service, compromising around 200 employee accounts and exfiltrating over 10,000 files between 2023 and 2024, according to Japanese media.

    Among the stolen data were details on JAXA’s Martian Moons Exploration (MMX) mission, part of the agency’s manned lunar program. This raises concerns about China using this information to advance its own Mars endeavors.

    With the MMX program set to launch in 2026 and China’s Mars sample return missions slated for around 2028, both nations are racing to achieve historic breakthroughs.

    In response to ongoing threats, Japan established a dedicated Cyber Defense Unit in March 2022 to monitor government networks around the clock. In the following year, Japan and the United States agreed to strengthen cybersecurity cooperation at the highest levels.

    Su Tzu-yun, director of Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, recently told the Chinese edition of The Epoch Times that such measures would only be effective if they are backed by stronger legal frameworks and closer international coordination.

    He said that current laws hinder the prosecution of state-backed hackers and the confirmation of their true identities. Su emphasized that tougher regulations and improved intelligence-sharing among democratic nations are essential to combat digital propaganda, sabotage, and data theft while upholding freedom of speech.

    Similar CCP-backed cyberattacks have occurred in the United States in recent years.

    In 2024, the Salt Typhoon hacking group, backed by China’s Ministry of State Security, stood out as the most serious threat, among others. It has compromised at least eight major U.S. telecom companies.

    The group also hacked the phones of then-presidential candidate, former President Donald Trump and then-vice presidential candidate JD Vance during the election. Vance confirmed the breach on “The Joe Rogan Experience,” though he noted only non-sensitive data was accessed due to his use of encrypted messaging apps.

    Last March, the U.S. Department of Justice unsealed the indictment of seven Chinese nationals linked to a group called APT31 for cyber espionage targeting the defense, IT, and energy sectors, aiming to steal data and enable future attacks.

    In 2023, Chinese hackers breached networks related to the U.S. military’s operational capabilities, including those in Guam, a strategic location for potential military operations in the Asia–Pacific region.

    Meanwhile, Volt Typhoon has been compromising U.S. critical infrastructure, including U.S. water, gas, energy, rail, air, and ports since at least mid-2021, a threat first disclosed by Microsoft in May 2023.

    The U.S. response has included sanctions on Chinese entities and a push for more aggressive cyber defense, led by agencies like the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency working alongside private industry.

    Cyber analyst Lin Tsung-nan, a professor at National Taiwan University, told The Epoch Times earlier this month that these campaigns are part of the Chinese regime’s “unrestricted warfare,” where intelligence gathering, social media manipulation, and infrastructure sabotage converge.

    He noted that cyber theft offers China a low-cost way to acquire advanced technology from Japan and the West and highlighted the extensive pool of state-sponsored hackers the Chinese regime has assembled for that purpose.

    As governments and private sectors prepare for increasingly sophisticated hacking techniques—amplified by emerging technologies—the stakes keep rising, Su said.

    The ultimate goal, he said, is to safeguard not only state secrets and intellectual property but also to maintain public trust and protect democratic institutions against growing cyber threats.

    Xin Ning contributed to this report.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/25/2025 – 19:50

  • Federal DEI Officials Try To Disguise To Keep Their Jobs, But There's Nowhere To Hide
    Federal DEI Officials Try To Disguise To Keep Their Jobs, But There’s Nowhere To Hide

    The hunt begins.  On day one of his second term Donald Trump put the federal government’s weight behind the national push to end DEI programs by signing an executive order that would effectively dismantle them from all aspects of the federal government.

    The executive action calls for the termination of DEI programs, mandates, policies, preferences and activities in the federal government along with the review and revision of existing federal employment practices, union contracts and training policies or programs. 

    Agency, department and commission heads have 60 days to terminate to the maximum extent allowed by law all DEI, DEIA and “environmental justice” offices and positions, action plans, equity-related grants or contracts as well as end all DEI or DEIA performance requirements 

    Perhaps not believing that this action would come so quickly or so aggressively, diversity offices seem to have been caught completely off guard and employees are now scrambling to figure out how they can still keep their government paycheck.  Federal DEI employees are reportedly “unclear” as to their status and do not know if they are being fired, or if they are being moved to a new position.

    In all likelihood, they will be fired.

    Some officials have decided to preempt their impending pink slip, choosing to rehire themselves under a new label in an attempt to hide the fact that they are DEI.  Others are trying to rename their entire department as something more innocuous, hoping to float under Trump’s radar.  However, these efforts are all in vain. 

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    A memo sent out by the Trump Administration to all federal offices warns that any attempt to hide or disguise DEI programs and employees as something else will be met with “adverse consequences”.  The memo notes:

    “We are aware of efforts by some in government to disguise these programs by using coded or imprecise language. If you are aware of a change in any contract description or personnel position description since November 5, 2024 to obscure the connection between the contract and DEIA or similar ideologies, please report all facts and circumstances…” 

    “There will be no adverse consequences for timely reporting this information. However, failure to report this information within 10 days will result in adverse consequences.”

    The memo also includes an email at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) where employees are directed to make such reports. 

    Senator Ted Cruz took to X recently to post that he had also been alerted to DEI contractors attempting to obscure their programs in order to avoid potential cuts.  Cruz specifically noted that DEI values incorporated into government funded scientific research was unacceptable.

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    The message to woke activists within the federal government is clear:  You can run, but you can’t hide.  Trump’s memo underscores the administration’s take on diversity programs. 

    “These programs divide Americans by race, waste taxpayer dollars, and result in shameful discrimination…”

      

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/25/2025 – 19:15

  • Supreme Court Allows Law Requiring Small Businesses To Report Ownership Information
    Supreme Court Allows Law Requiring Small Businesses To Report Ownership Information

    Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The U.S. Supreme Court voted 8–1 on Jan. 23 to allow the federal government to enforce an anti-money laundering law that a lower court blocked late last year.

    The U.S. Supreme Court in Washington on Jan. 15, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

    Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson dissented from the new ruling.

    The statute at issue, the federal Corporate Transparency Act (CTA), required millions of business entities to file information returns about their owners by Jan. 1, 2025.

    An estimated 33 million small businesses face fines of as much as $591 per day should they fail to comply with the new rule, according to.a Treasury website.

    Businesses with upwards of 20 employees, $5 million in annual sales, and a U.S. office qualify for exemptions from CTA reporting requirements.

    The law provides that affected corporate entities must file reports with the federal government about their beneficial owners, which means individuals with substantial control over the entity or who own or control 25 percent of the entity.

    Entities are required to provide the government with the names of their beneficial owners, along with their birthdates, addresses, and identifying information such as passport or driver’s license numbers.

    The CTA’s reporting requirement was put on hold on Dec. 5, 2024, when the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Texas sided with challengers, granting a nationwide preliminary injunction—also known as a universal injunction—against the CTA.

    The court found that the challengers would likely succeed with their claim that the act was unconstitutional.

    On Dec. 13, 2024, the U.S. Department of Justice, acting on behalf of the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), a federal agency, asked the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit to stay the injunction.

    The agency argued the law was constitutional and that the challenge to it would probably fail in the end.

    The circuit court’s motions panel granted the government’s request on Dec. 23, 2024, and suspended the injunction pending appeal. FinCEN then extended the filing deadline for corporate entities to Jan. 13, 2025.

    On Dec. 26, 2024, the circuit court performed an about-face and sent the case to its merits panel, which restored the injunction to “preserve the constitutional status quo while the merits panel considers the parties’ weighty substantive arguments.”

    The new Supreme Court order states that the Fifth Circuit’s ruling upholding the injunction is “stayed pending the disposition of the appeal” in the circuit court.

    The Fifth Circuit has scheduled oral argument in the case for March 25.

    Jackson wrote in her dissenting opinion that there was “no need” for the nation’s highest court to lift the Fifth Circuit’s stay of the reporting requirement.

    “However likely the government’s success on the merits may be, in my view, emergency relief is not appropriate because the applicant has failed to demonstrate sufficient exigency to justify our intervention,” the justice wrote.

    She wrote that the circuit court agreed to expedite the government’s appeal, even though the government only moved to enforce the law almost four years after its passage by Congress.

    The government’s argument that the law needs to be enforced immediately is undermined by “the fact that the harms it now says warrant our involvement were likely to occur during that period.”

    The government has not shown if will suffer “injury of a more serious or significant nature … if the Act’s implementation is further delayed while the litigation proceeds in the lower courts.”

    Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch, a critic of universal injunctions, concurred with the court’s decision, but wrote that the Supreme Court should “go a step further and … take this case now to resolve definitively the question whether a district court may issue universal injunctive relief.”

    In January 2020, Gorsuch criticized the growing practice of federal judges ruling beyond the scope of a particular case.

    The Supreme Court should “confront” the “real problem” of nationwide injunctions, which raise “serious questions about the scope of courts’ equitable powers under Article III” of the Constitution, he wrote in a ruling.

    That decision stayed a universal injunction that prevented the first Trump administration from enforcing its so-called public charge rule that blocked prospective immigrants from receiving permanent resident status if they were deemed likely to become dependent on government assistance.

    The case is McHenry v. Texas Top Cop Shop.

    The applicant, James R. McHenry, is a longtime U.S. Department of Justice employee who is serving as acting U.S. attorney general.

    McHenry took over temporarily after then-Attorney General Merrick Garland resigned on Jan. 20, the day of President Donald Trump’s inauguration.

    Trump has nominated Pam Bondi, former Florida attorney general, as the next U.S. attorney general. The Senate Judiciary Committee is scheduled to vote on her nomination on Jan. 29.

    The lead respondent, Texas Top Cop Shop, is a police supply store in Conroe, Texas.

    Janita Kan contributed to this report.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/25/2025 – 18:40

  • Trump: Zelensky Passed on Deal, 'Decided To Fight' & Is 'No Angel'
    Trump: Zelensky Passed on Deal, ‘Decided To Fight’ & Is ‘No Angel’

    President Donald Trump appeared on Hannity at the end this week and offered a blunt, critical assessment of Zelensky’s decision-making in the Russia-Ukraine war.

    He strongly suggested that Ukrainian President Zelensky’s policies have only prolonged the war. This includes the unspoken truth that prior Biden administration policies have only served to continue the killing, as billions in arms were pumped to Ukraine’s military, despite there long being acknowledgement that the Russian military machine was superior, and Russian forces have continued making significant gains.

    “Look, Zelensky was fighting a much bigger entity, much bigger, much more powerful. He shouldn’t have done that because we could have made a deal and it would have been a deal that would have been — it would have been a nothing deal,” Trump told Sean Hannity on Thursday. Trump also at one point said Zelensky is “no angel”.

    Via AP

    “We started pouring equipment… and they (Ukraine) had the bravery to use the equipment, but in the end, it’s a war that has to be settled,” Trump added.

    But he also admitted: “Putin shouldn’t have done it (launching the full-scale invasion)… and it has to stop.”

    Crucially during the course of the interview Trump indicated that he would have taken that deal. “I could have made that deal so easily. And Zelensky decided that I want to fight,” he said.

    Trump further pointed out that his Democratic predecessor Joe Biden did a “horrible job” by allowing the war to start in the first place. Trump has long maintained that had he been in office after 2020 the Russia-Ukraine war would have never started, as Putin would not have invaded.

    Russian President Putin himself dropped a bomb on Friday, with the following (as CNN puts it):

    Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed Friday that “the crisis in Ukraine” might have been prevented if Donald Trump was in power at the time, saying he was ready to talk with the new US president about the conflict.

    Trump has long claimed that the war in Ukraine would not have happened under his watch, but Friday marked the first time Putin suggested the same thing – while also repeating Trump’s false claim that the 2020 US election was “stolen.”

    Here’s what Putin said in the televised comments: “I can’t help but agree with (Trump) that if his victory had not been stolen in 2020, then maybe there would not have been the crisis in Ukraine that arose in 2022.”

    Trump this past week said, “Zelensky — I will say this, he wants to settle now. He’s had enough. He shouldn’t have allowed this to happen, either.”

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    The US President also told Hannity that “It’s gotta end. These are human beings that are being slaughtered” on the battlefield. Trump soon after the inauguration said he plans to meet with Putin “soon”. 

    The US, Russian, and Ukrainian sides are jockeying for diplomatic positions based on building leverage, based on diplomatic rhetoric or on the battlefield. But the big determinant reality remains the battlefield, in the Donbass, where Russian forces are clearly on top and advancing by the day.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/25/2025 – 18:05

  • House Passes Bill To Protect Babies Born Alive After Failed Abortions
    House Passes Bill To Protect Babies Born Alive After Failed Abortions

    Authored by Samantha Flom via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A bill to establish standards of care for babies born alive after failed abortions passed along party lines in the House on Jan. 23.

    The 217–204 vote followed a heated debate in the chamber, during which Republicans stressed that the bill was not about abortion but the babies who survive the procedure.

    Pro-life activists march across the National Mall near the U.S. Capitol during the 50th annual National March for Life, in Washington on Jan. 20, 2023. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

    “As a physician, it is beyond my comprehension that anyone would not intervene to save an innocent and defenseless human life,” Rep. Gregory Murphy (R-N.C.) said, defending the bill on the House floor.

    “Neglect is harm. Neglect is immoral. Abortion is not the issue.”

    The Born-Alive Abortion Survivors Protection Act requires medical professionals present at a newborn abortion survivor’s birth to provide the same level of life-saving care to that baby as would be offered to any other premature infant of the same gestational age.

    The bill mandates the transfer of such infants to a hospital for additional treatment and also establishes reporting requirements for violations. Penalties for violating the law could include fines and up to five years in prison, though the child’s mother would be protected from prosecution.

    Democrats, however, argued that infanticide is already illegal and that the bill is therefore unnecessary.

    “This bill does not solve a problem,” Rep. Kelly Morrison (D-Minn.), an obstetrician, said before voting against the measure in the House.

    “Doctors are already both honored and obligated to provide appropriate care for their patients. It is illegal to kill a newborn infant in all 50 states.”

    From 2019 to 2021 in Morrison’s home state of Minnesota, there were at least eight reported cases in which newborn abortion survivors died post-birth, according to the Minnesota Department of Health. In five of those cases, no measures were reported to have been taken to save the babies’ lives. In the other three cases, “comfort care” was provided.

    Other Democrats argued that the bill would allow for government interference in women’s reproductive health decisions and deprive parents of the opportunity to comfort their dying babies.

    “Only 1 percent of all abortions happen at 21 weeks or later, and if they do, it is because of a serious fetal abnormality or the health of the mother,” Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.) said. “And if you are the one getting that news, it is heartbreaking, it is earth-shattering. And the last thing families need is government to interfere with their access to care.”

    The bill’s passage in the House comes a day after Democrats unanimously opposed its advance in the Senate. With a 60-vote majority needed to invoke cloture, or limit debate, on a bill, the procedural vote failed 52-47.

    That result was no surprise to Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.).

    Thune had noted hours before that he fully expected Democrats to reject what he felt should be a noncontroversial bill.

    “We should all be able to agree that a baby born alive after an attempted abortion must be protected,” the majority leader said on the Senate floor.

    “But I think it is safe to say that what it all boils down to is this: Democrats will oppose legislation to provide appropriate medical care to newborn children who survive abortions because they are afraid.”

    If Democrats recognized the humanity of a living baby, born in an abortion clinic after a botched abortion, they might be forced to acknowledge the humanity of the unborn baby in that same clinic, Thune said.

    Republicans have tried numerous times in recent years to pass legislation protecting the lives of newborn abortion survivors. Those efforts have been blocked by Democrats.

    Tens of thousands, or perhaps hundreds of thousands, of pro-life advocates are expected to flood Washington on Jan. 24 for the 52nd annual National March for Life.

    Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to speak at the event on behalf of the Trump administration. President Donald Trump will address the March in a video message, a White House official confirmed on Thursday.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/25/2025 – 17:30

  • "Closer To Disinformation": Ex-Politico Reporters Reveal How "Cowardly Editors" Helped Biden Win 2020 Election
    “Closer To Disinformation”: Ex-Politico Reporters Reveal How “Cowardly Editors” Helped Biden Win 2020 Election

    Two former Politico reporters revealed how “cowardly editors” at their former publication carried water for Joe Biden in the 2020 election by actively working to suppress stories that were unflattering to Biden.

    “Politico did that terrible, ill-fated headline: 51 intelligence agents, or former intelligence agents, say that the Hunter Biden laptop was disinformation, or bore the hallmarks of disinformation,” said Marc Caputo, now the senior politics editor at Axios. “Turns out that story was closer to disinformation because the Hunter Biden laptop appeared to be true.”

    The other ex-Politico reporter, Tara Palmeri – who interviewed Caputo on her “Somebody’s Gotta Win” podcast, recalled how social media giants colluded to censor the Hunter Biden laptop story, while Caputo noted that (pre-Musk) Twitter “punished” the New York Post for its accurate reporting – locking the outlet out of its account following a pressure campaign from the Biden DOJ.

    “I was covering Biden at the time,” Caputo told Palmeri, adding: “And I was told this came from on high at Politico: Don’t write about the laptop, don’t talk about the laptop, don’t tweet about the laptop.”

    Caputo added that he was working on a story about Hunter Biden’s shady dealings with Ukrainian natural gas company Burisma, which Politico editors “killed” during the 2020 Democrat primaries.

    “I wrote what would have been a classic story saying, you know, ‘The former vice president’s son was slapped with a big tax lien for the period of time that he worked for this controversial Ukrainian oil concern, or natural gas concern, which is haunting his father on the campaign trail,’” said Caputo, adding that the story was spiked without any explanation.

    According to Caputo, readers “don’t understand the dumb decisions of cowardly editors that are made above us.”

    As Headline USA notes further, Palmeri told Caputo that she worked for three months on a report she co-wrote in March 2021 about the Secret Service trying to obtain a copy of Hunter Biden’s gun-purchase form that he lied on, and eventually resulted in a criminal conviction.

    “I spent three months on it, I went to the laptop shop, and I did all of the reporting in Delaware,” she remembered. “But I do wonder if it could have, if it would have been published a little quicker if it was a different type of story.”

    “It was the beginning of his administration, it was a honeymoon period — you know what I mean?”

    h/t Julianna Frieman via Headline USA

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/25/2025 – 16:55

  • Whistleblower: FBI's New Orleans Boss Stayed On Vacation after New Year's Terrorist Attack
    Whistleblower: FBI’s New Orleans Boss Stayed On Vacation after New Year’s Terrorist Attack

    Authored by Ken Silva via Headline USA,

    Apparently the second-deadliest foreign-inspired terrorist attack in the U.S. since 9/11 wasn’t enough for the boss of the New Orleans FBI field office to end his vacation early.

    Lyonel Myrthil, special agent in charge of the New Orleans field office, second from left, shows footage of Shamsud-Din Jabbar, the man who carried out an attack on New Orleans’ Bourbon Street on New Year’s Day, during a news conference in a secure garage at the FBI Headquarters in New Orleans. / PHOTO: The Times-Picayune/The New Orleans Advocate via AP

    Early on New Year’s Day, 42-year-old Army veteran Shamsud-Din Bahar Jabbar rammed a pickup truck into a crowd in New Orleans’s famed French Quarter—killing 14 people who were celebrating the New Year. Police fatally shot Jabbar in a following firefight, and authorities later determined that the incident was inspired by the foreign terrorist organization ISIS.

    Despite that, New Orleans FBI Special Agent in Charge Lyonel Myrthil took several more days to return to the office, according to a whistleblower working with the office of Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa.

    “Myrthil vacationed in Europe from late December to early January, which included New Year’s Eve, New Year’s Day, and the Sugar Bowl and took multiple days to return to New Orleans after the terrorist attack on January 1,” Grassley said in a Tuesday letter to FBI Acting Director Brian Driscol and Acting Attorney General James McHenry.

    “The FBI failed to note this in any of the joint briefings it provided to Congress and must provide more information.”

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    Along with questions about the vacationing SAC, Grassley’s office seeks more information about the New Orleans attack, as well as info about the Tesla Cybertruck that exploded in front of the Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas on the same day. Grassley also wants to make sure whether those two attacks were connected—especially given that the driver of the Cybertruck, Matthew Alan Livelsberger, served at Fort Bragg and in Afghanistan at the same time as Jabbar.

    “Similarities do reportedly exist between Jabbar and Livelsberger. For example, both individuals had experience in the U.S. Army and the vehicles in both incidents were rented from the same company, Turo. Further, according to reports, authorities claimed Livelsberger and Jabbar “likely overlapped at Fort Bragg and again in Afghanistan,’” Grassley noted. “It remains unclear whether there are additional similarities or connections between Jabbar and Livelsberger.”

    Grassley and Sen. Ron Johnson seek updates on the New Year’s Day attacks by Feb. 5.

    Grassley and Johnson also wrote a separate letter to Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, asking about Jabbar’s terroristic Facebook posts in the leadup to his attack.

    Ken Silva is a staff writer at Headline USA. Follow him at x.com/jd_cashless.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/25/2025 – 16:20

  • Lower 48 Polar Blast Coldest "Since 1994" As Global Warming Alarmists Go Silent
    Lower 48 Polar Blast Coldest “Since 1994” As Global Warming Alarmists Go Silent

    After years of “unprecedented man-made global boiling” propaganda pushed by woke scientists, far-left corporate media outlets, grifting ‘green’ billionaires, and climate change warrior non-profits, Al Gore and Greta Thunberg have a lot of explaining to do after this January across the Lower 48 could shape up to be one of the coldest in years if not decades. 

    “With an average temperature running 3.6 degrees below normal, this is currently the coldest January nationally (lower 48) since 1994,” meteorologist Kevin Williams and founder of private weather forecasting firm Weather-Track, wrote on X. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Meteorologist Joe Bastardi wrote on X, “The nation for Jan is now the coldest max temps since 1988 at – 4.2.  Still lagging 94 for average).” 

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    “This month will end up finishing in the top 5 coldest JANs since 1990. Currently should finish 3rd right behind 1994 and 1991. Historically cold top 5 coldest JANs roll into this look for FEB on the right. Still some winter left in the tank we believe,” private weather forecaster BAMWX said on X. 

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    We’ve also been closely following the polar vortex blast and its impact on the economy and energy markets this winter season: 

    Despite billions of tons of emissions released by fossil fuel energy plants, factories, jumbo jets, cow farts, gas stoves, and vehicles over the years, and Greta’s claim about the world ending in a firey death by 2023…

    … somehow, January is shaping up to be one of the coldest in years. 

    Ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter, climate crisis warriors were out spreading propaganda with the intent of causing climate anxieties amongst the population by warning about the “hottest ever” conditions while completely ignoring the warming effects of the Hunga Tonga undersea volcano. Instead, Taylor Swift’s private jet and cow farts were blamed on warming conditions. 

    At the start of last week, President Trump officially ended America’s involvement in the Paris Climate Agreement, citing its de-growth and inflationary policies that have strangled the US economy.

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    Climate grifters were put on notice by the president.

    Al Gore

    Michael Bloomberg

    Al Gore will just blame the cold weather on global warming. No accountability. That must change in the era of Trump 2.0. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/25/2025 – 15:45

  • Rubio To Visit Panama Amid Rising Tensions Over Canal
    Rubio To Visit Panama Amid Rising Tensions Over Canal

    Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to make his first trip abroad next week, which will include a stop in Panama amid rising tensions over President Donald Trump’s vow to take back the Panama Canal.

    Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the State Department in Washington on Jan. 21, 2025. Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

    “China is operating the Panama Canal. And we didn’t give it to China. We gave it to Panama, and we’re taking it back,” Trump said during his inaugural speech.

    Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino has denied that China is running the canal and stated it won’t be returned to the United States.

    Tammy Bruce, department spokeswoman, said Rubio—a Florida Senator with Cuban roots—also planned to visit El Salvador, Guatemala, Costa Rica, and the Dominican Republic.

    Bruce said the visit stemmed from Rubio’s interest in the region and his desire to strengthen ties with Central American countries, in particular to battle illegal immigration.

    Rubio may have his work cut out during his visit to Panama as tensions over Trump’s comments have escalated.

    During his confirmation hearing, Rubio characterized the Panamanian government as “very friendly to the United States and very cooperative.”

    “We want that to continue,” he said.

    One bright spot during the visit could include working with Panama to curtail mass migration.

    Mulino campaigned on shutting down illegal immigration through Panama’s Darien Gap.

    However, the focus on the Panama Canal could overshadow immigration talks.

    Rubio noted during his hearing that Chinese companies controlling port facilities on both ends of the canal have been a concern for a decade.

    During a 2017 trip to Panama, Rubio said he discussed China’s influence along the waterway, which is a choke point with military value. It’s a critical pathway for U.S. warships in both the Atlantic and Pacific.

    Rubio said military and security officials in Panama said during his visit that Beijing could potentially use its commercial ports during a military conflict.

    There are “no independent Chinese companies,” Rubio said. “They all exist because they’ve been identified as national champions. They’re supported by the Chinese government.”

    The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) mandates that Chinese companies cooperate with state intelligence agencies.

    China began to invest in Panama around 2016 and 2017, and the money had strings attached, Rubio said.

    The China-based Landbridge struck a $900 million deal in 2016 to control Margarita Island, Panama’s largest port on the Atlantic side, to build a deepwater port.

    In 2017, Panama signed on to China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), dubbed a modern Silk Road, after publicly recognizing Taiwan as part of China, much to the surprise and concern of the United States.

    In 2018, during Trump’s first term in office, U.S. and domestic Panamanian pressure was credited with ending China’s plan to construct a large embassy at the mouth of the canal, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

    That same year, a Chinese consortium headed by China Harbor Engineering Company (CHEC) and state-owned China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) was awarded a $1.4 billion contract for the canal’s fourth bridge.

    The CCCC was involved in constructing China’s man-made islands in the disputed South China Sea.

    On the Pacific side of the canal, in the spring of 2024, Chinese companies completed work on the enormous Amador Pacific Coast cruise terminal built by the CHEC.

    Who Has De Facto Control?

    This month, in an interview with The Associated Press, canal administrator Ricaurte Vásquez rejected claims that the canal was controlled by China while noting that American and Taiwanese businesses also operate ports along the canal.

    The Panama Canal Authority manages the administration and maintenance of the waterway’s resources and security. It operates independently of the Panamanian government.

    “I mean, that’s one of those things that is factual but not truthful,” said Joshua Trevino, a former vice president of policy at the Pacific Research Institute and current policy analyst for the Texas Public Policy Foundation.

    The canal authority may technically control the waterway, but Chinese companies also have functional control over the ports and pay the bills, he told The Epoch Times.

    “If you have the financial and operational control—which they do—the titular government is a lot less important than those two things,” he said.

    Eva Fu, Ryan Morgan, and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/25/2025 – 15:10

  • As Four Israeli Hostages Released, Hamas Displays It Has Entire Well-Armed Battalion
    As Four Israeli Hostages Released, Hamas Displays It Has Entire Well-Armed Battalion

    Israel, Palestinians, and the United States are all celebrating after on Saturday the second big hostage exchange went off successfully. Four female Israeli soldiers were released and have been reunited with their families in Israel.

    On the other side, 200 Palestinian prisoners were freed from Israeli jails under the terms of the ceasefire. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) oversaw the transfer of the prisoners, which was done with much ceremony and propaganda optics on the Hamas side.

    Via Reuters

    The Trump White House spiked the football, following its campaign promises to negotiate peace in conflict hot spots around the world. The White House statement upon the release of the four Israelis said “Today the world celebrates as President Trump secured the release of four more Israeli hostages who were, for far too long, held against their will by Hamas in horrific conditions.”

    “The United States will continue with its great partner Israel to push for the release of all remaining hostages and the pursuit of peace throughout the region,” it added.

    The hostages spent 475 days in captivity as war ensued all around them. The newly released have been identified as Karina Ariev, Daniella Gilboa, Naama Levy and Liri Albag.

    There have been some severe disagreements concerning some of the details about the release of the Israelis. First, the four women were dressed in Israeli military uniforms in order for Hamas to underscore that they were combatants. The Israeli negotiators had insisted they be dressed in civilian clothing.

    Celebrations ensue in Gaza as 200 Palestinians released from Israeli jails…

    Via Anadolu

    Second, the hostages just before they were handed over to the Red Cross were paraded in front of banners denouncing the ‘terrorist Zionists’ and other propaganda displays.

    Still, it proceeded without major incident, and there have been large celebrations in Gaza as the ceasefire continues to hold, and as the 200 Palestinian prisoners were returned.

    Huge numbers of well-armed, uniformed Hamas militants filled up a town square, displaying continued existence of significant Hamas forces despite about a year-and-half of the major IDF ground and air offensive in the Strip…

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    “While the exchange of another four hostages under the deal is a positive step forward in the continued ceasefire, it also could be in direct violation of the agreement as female civilians were supposed to be released ahead of all female soldiers, followed by the elderly and wounded men,” Fox News observes.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/25/2025 – 14:35

  • Did Hedge Funds Steal Half Their Investors' Money?
    Did Hedge Funds Steal Half Their Investors’ Money?

    Authored by Aaron Brown via RealClearMarkets,

    A report released by LCH Research got widespread coverage with the Wall Street Journal making its headline, “Hedge-Fund Fees Eat Up Half of Clients’ Profits,” and Bloomberg chimed in with, “Hedge Funds Kept $1.8 Trillion as Fees, or Half Their Gains.” The coverage used words like “staggering” and “exploitation,” but I think this is an innumerate reaction.

    Before getting to the right way to think about these numbers, I want to address the idea of forming estimates to the nearest hundred million dollars of the total return and total fees of all hedge funds since Alfred Winslow Jones invented them in 1949. It’s difficult even to define all hedge funds, and few of them disclose results to the public. The disclosures some make to databases are not complete enough to make accurate calculations. But LCH has access to a lot of non-public information and a solid reputation for accurate research. I don’t think they know the numbers to the nearest hundred million dollars, but there’s no reason to think their numbers are wildly wrong. Moreover the ratio of fees to investor returns is easier to estimate than the absolute dollar totals of either one.

    Let’s start with the numbers for 20 large hedge funds, which I think are more reliable than the totals for all hedge funds. Here we have a defined universe of funds, all very well known, and few enough that each can be examined in detail. According to LCH these 20 funds have generated $1,301.1 billion in total gains since inception, and taken $446.6 billion of that, 34.3%, in fees.

    If you think about it, this is not meaningful information. What matters is whether the net investor returns beat the market. If the money invested in the 20 hedge funds had instead been in index funds, the fees would likely have been around $15 billion, one-thirtieth of what the hedge funds charged. But the index funds would not have beaten the market for their investors, only matched it before fees were subtracted. Traditional asset managers might have charged $100 billion, then lost to index funds on average.

    Unfortunately, the 20 hedge funds represent a wide range of strategies with different benchmarks and fee structures, so we have no way of estimating the amount of excess return or alpha they delivered to investors. But we can still make sense of the numbers by assuming they were from a single fund that charged a 2% management fee and 20% of profits beyond a 3% hurdle rate (3% is about the weighted average one-month treasury bill rate over the period of operation). This is a reasonable guess for either a low-risk or market-neutral hedge fund.

    In that case, the hedge funds’ gross return of $1,301.1 billion represented about 13% per year, and delivered $994.1 billion above the hurdle rate. The hypothetical fund took a performance fee of $241.9 billion, or 24% of the profit above hurdle. 24% is higher than the stated 20% performance fee because investors do not all redeem at high-water mark—both because investors cannot time peaks perfectly and also because they tend to redeem after losses.

    But what if we treat this like a high-risk hedge fund run to a Beta of 0.5 to the S&P500. Based on weighted average stock returns over the period, that would suggest a hurdle rate of 6% rather than 3%. In turn, that would reduce the hypothetical excess return to $687.0 billion, and the performance fee would represent 35% of excess profits.

    Since the actual funds are mix of high and low risk funds, with different correlations to major financial markets and different fee arrangements, all we can say is it seems these 20 hedge funds are taking something like 30% of excess profits as performance fees.

    But this is a biased number because none of the 20 successful funds blew up, and in fact they all posted above-average returns which is why they grew to be successful. If we perform the same calculations for the remaining hedge funds we find they seem to have averaged about a 6% annual return, and taken between 44% and 100% of excess returns as performance fees, say 75% as a ballpark guess for the average.

    I understand these are highly oversimplified calculations. If we had fund-by-fund and investor-by-investor numbers we might have very different values. I only maintain that if we’re guessing from the numbers we do have, a 30% effective performance fee for top hedge funds and 75% for other hedge funds are not unreasonable.

    Now comes the question of what effective performance fees should be. If a manager has unique and certain alpha, then he or she is in a position to charge any amount that leaves investors better off than not taking the deal. Even with a 99.9% performance fee, it would make sense for someone to invest.

    However, there is a behavioral economics literature called “ultimatum games” that suggest empirically investors would reject wildly unbalanced splits, even though turning them down results in lower overall returns. The literature suggests even the unique and certain alpha manager could not take more than, say, 75% of excess performance to gain traction with investors.

    Of course, no real manager has unique and certain alpha. At the other extreme is a “hedge fund Beta” manager who offers well-known, inexpensive-to-run strategies that beat index funds over the medium-term, but which are essentially identical to competitors’ funds. These funds do not have certain outperformance, they have periods of doing better and worse than the benchmark. Economics argues that fees for these funds should be competed down to cost. Since cost is unrelated to performance, this means a zero performance fee, and a management fee only large enough to cover expenses—including the manager’s time and effort.

    I think the numbers reinforce two things I think most investors already know. If you can get into good hedge funds, like the top 20 in the study but also lots of other funds, they offer great advantages for investors both in diversification and excess return. Institutions that carefully select from good funds have better long-term investment returns with large allocations to alternatives than small allocations to alternatives. But if you pick hedge funds at random, or if you can only get your money into the less desirable funds, you will probably do more good for the managers than yourself, and could easily do worse than you would have from index funds.

    Aaron Brown is the author of many books, including The Poker Face of Wall Street.  He’s a long-time risk manager in the hedge fund space.  

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/25/2025 – 14:00

  • Noem Confirmed As DHS Secretary
    Noem Confirmed As DHS Secretary

    The Senate on Saturday confirmed Kristi Noem as President Donald Trump’s Secretary of Homeland Security, meaning that the South Dakota governor will be in charge of a massive agency established after the September 11, 2001 attacks, and has since had a long record of civil liberties and civil rights abuses.

    Noem was confirmed by a final vote of 59-34. Of note, the Trump ally who is in her second term as governor received support from several Democrats on the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee when it voted 13-2 to advance her nomination earlier in the week. Republicans have also expressed confidence in Noem’s ability to lead border security and immigration enforcement, AP reports.

    Meanwhile back at the swamp:

    “Fixing this crisis and restoring respect for the rule of law is one of President Trump and Republicans’ top priorities,” sid Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) on Friday. “And it’s going to require a decisive and committed leader at the Department of Homeland Security. I believe Kristi has everything it takes to undertake this task.”

    Democrats’ primary opposition to Noem revolved around how to handle border enforcement and immigration under Trump – with figures like Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (NY) vowing to vote against Noem, suggesting instead “bipartisan solutions to fix the mess at our border” vs Noem, who he said “seems headed in the wrong direction.”

    The homeland security secretary oversees U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Citizenship and Immigration Services. Beyond those agencies, the department is also responsible for securing airline transportation, protecting dignitaries, responding to natural disasters and more.

    Trump is planning major changes to how the department functions, including involving the military in immigration enforcement and reshaping the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Those plans could immediately put Noem in the spotlight after the new president visited recent disaster sites in North Carolina and California on Friday. -AP

    Noem was repeatedly asked by Senators during her confirmation hearing whether she would administer disaster aid to states even if Trump asked her not to, to which she replied that she would “deliver the programs according to the law and that it will be done with no political bias.”

    Noem was notably a state House Rep. for eight years before becoming governor in 2019.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/25/2025 – 13:25

  • Face First
    Face First

    Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

    In a couple of my previous articles, I pointed out that I thought cryptocurrency would wind up being the canary in the coal mine as it relates to the next stock market crash.

    And by the looks of things, the warning signals may not be as difficult to take notice of as I once thought. I wish that was because more people were simply paying attention, but it’s not. It’s because the United States seems to be heading face-first into the crypto business, so it’ll be on every single person’s radar.

    Since his inauguration, President Donald Trump has taken bold steps to position the United States as a leader in the cryptocurrency industry. One of his first actions was signing an executive order titled “Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology,” aimed at fostering innovation while ensuring regulatory clarity in the crypto space. The order outlines protections for public blockchain networks, encourages the development of U.S. dollar-backed stablecoins, and explicitly prohibits the creation of a central bank digital currency (CBDC). To support this effort, a Presidential Task Force on Digital Asset Markets, led by venture capitalist David Sacks, has been established to draft regulatory proposals.

    In addition to regulatory measures, President Trump has introduced a strategic initiative to create a national Bitcoin reserve. This plan involves the U.S. government accumulating Bitcoin, either through direct acquisitions or by utilizing cryptocurrency seized from criminal enterprises. The reserve is intended to strengthen the nation’s financial standing in a global economy increasingly influenced by digital assets.

    Trump has also repeatedly called for the U.S. to embrace its role as the “crypto capital of the world,” emphasizing the importance of fostering innovation and providing a clear regulatory environment to attract investment and talent.

    And now, the only question is whether or not this is an asset class that will actually serve a purpose over the long haul. As a result, will we just have to wait for the poor investments in the space to be flushed out—or, in the event that crypto turns out to be a big nothing—will we have to wait for the entire asset class to implode?

    No matter which of these two scenarios occurs, I’m fairly certain one is going to take place. It’s only fitting that for a brand-new asset class, we have an unprecedented, brand-new market correction. I don’t think there has been an asset in the history of the world that hasn’t gotten out over its skis and eventually hit major turmoil. Everything from housing to metals to equities have crashed at some point, and crypto won’t be any different. The only question is to what extent, and when — and I’m not really interested in speculating enough to know, or care, when.

    Here’s what I do know. My long-term readers know I believe it to be a mathematical certainty that the market is eventually going to grind to a halt at some point due to positive real interest rates.

    Black: Nominal 1 year treasury, Red: Inflation rate (LTM), Blue: Real 1 year rate

    Very slowly, these positive rates are slowing down the economy and will eventually grind its gears to a halt—the only question is how the stock market and prices will react. Stagflation seems to be the likely scenario heading forward, if I had to guess.

    All the speculation around crypto—and equities—is complicated by the fact that President Trump now believes interest rates should be lower. Trump announced on Thursday plans to push for lower U.S. interest rates, challenging the Federal Reserve’s tradition of political independence. Speaking at the World Economic Forum, he linked the need for rate cuts to anticipated lower oil prices, which he said would ease inflationary pressures.

    Whether or not he’s going to have an effect on the Fed’s Jerome Powell remains to be seen.

    I think I understand his mindset, though: to blow the asset bubble bigger during his presidency and ensure that asset prices continue to rise under his watch. This is all good and well, except for the fact that the Federal Reserve is in an unprecedented position between a rock and a hard place. Inflation is still around 3%, not anywhere near the Fed’s 2% target, and lowering rates now would almost ensure that the Fed’s fight against rising prices will become more difficult. As you can see, inflation is once again ticking higher:

    But as I’ve said for years, this was never a fight the Fed was going to win. I said a couple of years ago on Palisades Gold Radio that I was certain the Fed would have to settle for a higher inflation target, and I think that’s what’s going to happen. The result may prop up the nominal price of financial assets a little further, but sadly, cost of living will also stay high for working-class Americans. This is a serious step further toward the nation losing its creditworthiness and descending into a hyperinflationary spiral. It is letting the “inflation genie” out of the bottle further.

    Gimmicks aside, nothing changes the fact that spending is going to need to be cut if we want to attack the national debt, as Trump says he wants to.

    The only way crypto helps us attack the national debt is if we stake our claim in a bunch of bitcoin before many other global parties do the same and it becomes a good investment. Theoretically, other buyers in the market would then move the price higher, increasing the value of the bitcoin we’ve already acquired. At some point, we’d have to exit the investment (or use it as collateral) and use the gains to square up the debt—or at least part of it—if that’s what President Trump really wants to do.

    Nobody is talking about the other scenario: what happens if other countries don’t follow our lead and decide the world is not going to adopt a bitcoin standard despite our attempts to lead the way? Then all we’ve done is make another bad investment.

    Meanwhile, the bond market continues to send signals that rates need to be higher, not lower.

    At the same time, equities are on a historic run, pushing valuations into territory only touched once before—during the tech bubble of 2000.

    Shiller PE

    If we continue along this trajectory, the market will soon be the most overvalued it has ever been in history. At some point, buying stocks will become a bet that they can continue to be the most aggressively valued they’ve ever been in the history of our stock market.

    Look: eventually, this turns into a losing bet. I don’t know when, why, or how it will occur, but it will.

    🔥 2025 SALE – 50% OFF FOR LIFE: Using this coupon entitles you to 50% off an annual subscription to Fringe Finance for life: Get 50% off forever

    And make no mistake, we’re not treading cautiously toward the next market correction. We’re ramming the accelerator to the floor, redlining the engine, and taking on whatever comes next face-first, simply hoping that through some sort of financial alchemy, everything works itself out.

    On the positive side, the new administration seems to be making progress with foreign relations, both with our allies and with adversaries of the last administration. Crucial to getting our financial trajectory on a steady path is achieving some type of homeostasis with the rest of the world. Even if it boils down to the United States needing to engineer some type of debt jubilee, we would need the rest of the world to buy in. If we only have our allies, the BRICS nations could call our bluff by labeling any debt restructuring or jubilee for what it really is: a default.

    However, if we achieve buy-in from the other side of the global financial aisle, there’s a chance for four more years of perceived financial prosperity—and at least avoiding total chaos.

    In summary:

    1. Trump is fighting the bond market (and the Fed) on interest rates

    2. Crypto and 0DTE equity options are the tail wagging the stock market dog

    3. Said dog is nearing all time highs for valuation

    4. Real rates have the economy’s balls in a slowly constricting vice grip

    5. Spending cuts need to happen to slow the national debt and return to surplus

    6. Modest gains are being made on the foreign policy front

    What a f*cking mess. Be careful out there.

    QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

    This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/25/2025 – 12:50

  • Watch: Trump Destroys LA Mayor To Her Face During Wild Press Conference Spat
    Watch: Trump Destroys LA Mayor To Her Face During Wild Press Conference Spat

    President Donald Trump slammed Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass (D) and other Democrat public officials during a Friday press conference in Pacific Palisades to discuss the damage from the recent fires.

    Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, first lady Melania Trump and President Donald Trump are pictured at a fire briefing in Pacific Palisades, California on January 24, 2025. MANDEL NGAN/AFP

    While discussing how long it would take to clean up the Palisades and other affected areas, Bass said “The number one thing that we are going to do immediately, and you will see this happen, is to clear out the debris…we are going to move as fast as we can. But we want you to be safe. We want you to be back in your homes immediately.”

    Trump immediately cut in – saying “But the people are willing to clean out their own debris. It doesn’t cost a lot.“

    “You should let them do it. Because by the time you hire contractors, it’s going to be two years. People are willing to get a dumpster and do it themselves and clean it out. There’s not that much left. It’s all incinerated, and you know, it’s just going to take a long time if you do [it].”

    According to Trump, homeowners don’t want to “wait around for seven months till the city hires some demolition contract that’s going to charge $25,000.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    As modernity.news notes further, Trump pointed out that people are saying they’ve been told they will have to wait up to 18 months for permits to clean up, and if he is willing to waive federal restrictions then the Mayor should do the same.

    “Let them start the process tonight,” Trump said, with Bass responding “And we will. You can come back and check.”

    Trump then eviscerated California Rep. Brad Sherman (D) who attempted to defend FEMA’s actions in the aftermath of the fires.

    “The problem with FEMA is they come from all over the country,” Trump said. “They end up in arguments with your people from California because they want to do it a totally different way. I can live either way, but you haven’t gotten very much done with FEMA. All you have to do is look at North Carolina. It’s one of the great disasters of all time.”

    “You know who came in and fixed North Carolina or the process? Other states. People from all over the country came. You have the same thing. You have a lot of people from all over the country,” Trump continued. “Getting the people is not a problem. Getting the organization is a big problem. FEMA is incompetently run, and it costs about three times more than it should cost.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “EMA has a standard that’s so slow. They want permit on permit on permit, and then they want permits on top of that. If you use FEMA, you’ll be here for a long time,” Trump said. “What I’m saying is get the city, get the state to give you immediate 24-hour permits. These people are going to build their own homes. They’re going to get them built fast.”

    Trump then roasted Sherman and “people that think like you,” over insurance companies leaving California over state policies, stating that “every insurance company in the country left California.”

    “That’s why you have no insurance, because you made it so impossible. People that think like you made it so impossible,” Trump continued.

    “I’ll tell you this. I’ve never seen a state where almost nobody has insurance. I said, ‘What happened?’ They said, like, six months ago, they all left. Two years ago, they had different quadrants, but they left. You have very little insurance here. I’ve never seen anything like it,” Trump said.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/25/2025 – 12:15

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Jan 25

Today’s News 25th January 2025

  • Pentagon's New Mideast Policy Chief Wants To Scale Down US Presence In Region
    Pentagon’s New Mideast Policy Chief Wants To Scale Down US Presence In Region

    Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

    The Trump administration has appointed a new Middle East policy chief in the Pentagon who believes the US should scale down its military presence in the region.

    Michael DiMino, a former CIA analyst, was sworn in early this week as the deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East. Before taking the job, DiMino was a fellow at Defense Priorities, a think tank that calls itself the “hub of realism and restraint” and advocates for a less interventionist foreign policy.

    Jewish Insider reported that DiMino’s appointment has alarmed pro-Israel Republicans due to his views on the region. The report cited comments DiMino made during a webinar last year where he said the Middle East does “not really matter” for US interests.

    “Vital or existential US interests in the Middle East are best characterized as minimal to non-existent. And I think if you look at America’s experience as the primary security broker for the region… it has not rendered any lasting political, economic, or security benefits in service of US interests or the American people,” he said.

    DiMino has opposed attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities and war with Iran in general and has repeatedly called for the withdrawal of US troops in Iraq and Syria, citing their vulnerability to attacks.

    When President Biden launched a bombing campaign against Yemen’s Houthis in January 2024, DiMino opposed it and suggested the US should consider putting pressure on Israel to improve conditions in Gaza since the Israeli onslaught was the reason for the Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping.

    “Any multi-billion-dollar effort to fight a war in Yemen would render no political, economic, or security benefits to the United States. Strategies like ‘buck passing’ and diplomatic engagement are perfectly viable, would do the US no harm, and could resolve the crisis. Continued military action in Yemen, by contrast, presents dubious prospects for success,” DiMino wrote in Responsible Statecraft.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The US bombing campaign against the Houthis only escalated the situation in the Red Sea and did not deter the Yemeni group at all.

    Now that there is a ceasefire in Gaza, the Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, have said they will stop their attacks as long as Israel abides by the truce.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/24/2025 – 23:25

  • Visualizing NATO's And Russia's Militarization Of The Arctic
    Visualizing NATO’s And Russia’s Militarization Of The Arctic

    Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Arctic has been considered a politically neutral zone, marked by the peaceful international cooperation of scientists.

    But, as Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, as the Arctic ice melts and more land and sea becomes accessible, opportunities for resource extraction and maritime trade routes are opening up, making it increasingly attractive to vying global powers, with some observers questioning confidence in its stability.

    Infographic: NATO’s and Russia’s Militarization of the Arctic | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 is considered a turning point in Arctic relations. At the time the war broke out, Russia had been chairing the Arctic Council, an intergovernmental forum that promotes cooperation and coordination between the Arctic States, Arctic Indigenous Peoples and other Arctic inhabitants, covering a range of issues – crucially, excluding military security.

    Seven of the eight Arctic Council members (all but Russia) promptly decided to boycott meetings over the war and only met again in 2023 to oversee the handover of the chairmanship to Norway. Without Russia, which is so large that its northern border makes up 53 percent of the Arctic coastline, the Arctic Council faces criticism over its international legitimacy, as it can no longer claim to be separate from geopolitical conflicts. In 2024, Russia then suspended annual payments to the organization until the council’s full activities involving all members resumed. Some virtual meetings started up again last year with Russian participation.

    Russia has a larger military presence in the Arctic than NATO and has been investing in and upgrading its Soviet-era facilities. Chatham House, a UK think tank, says this is defensive in nature and that the Kremlin is opposed to the idea of starting a conflict in the Arctic. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Moscow is rather “pursuing economic ambitions, protecting its second-strike nuclear capabilities and projecting power into the Central Arctic, Bering Sea and North Atlantic”.

    The Arctic Institute adds to this, saying that Russia’s control of the North Sea Route (NSR) would give an “economic and diplomatic lever with which to extend their regional influence”, highlighting how the Russian Northern Fleet has increased its surface and underwater monitoring of the route. The U.S. Department of Defense takes a stronger rhetoric, stating in its 2024 Arctic Strategy that Russia’s maritime infrastructure could allow it to enforce “excessive and illegal maritime claims” along the NSR between the Bering Strait and Kara Strait in the future. The document also highlights new logistical challenges in the region due to climate change as well as U.S. concern over the competition of a co-operating Russia and China, the latter of which has also shown interest in being a part of the region’s developments, calling itself a “near-Arctic state”.

    NATO too has carried out drills and increased its might in the arena, with the addition of Sweden and Finland to the group last year. The U.S. DoD says it is monitoring developments and improving surveillance and early warning systems in the vast region to “ensure the Arctic does not become a strategic blind spot.” Data published by Foreign Policy illustrates how in Europe, Norway has 13 Arctic bases, including a new addition, Camp Viking, a UK training ground for Royal Marines Commandos.

    This source shows the U.S. to have nine bases in Alaska in addition to those in Greenland and Iceland. Despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s reiteration of wanting to buy Greenland in the past weeks, Washington has said it has no plans to increase the U.S.’ current military footprint there. Observers note that continued tensions and military buildup on both sides has the increased risk of miscalculation.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/24/2025 – 23:00

  • White House Office Of Gun Violence Prevention Webpage Goes Dark On Trump's 2nd Day
    White House Office Of Gun Violence Prevention Webpage Goes Dark On Trump’s 2nd Day

    Authored by Michael Clements via The Epoch Times,

    Second Amendment advocates are celebrating, and gun control activists are decrying the apparent closing of the White House Office of Gun Violence Prevention.

    The Trump administration has not confirmed that the office, opened by an executive order from then-President Joe Biden in 2023, is closed.

    The office’s website was down the day after President Donald Trump officially took office and remains inactive as of Jan. 23.

    The White House did not respond to requests for comment by publication time.

    Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.), who helped secure funding for the office, decried the closure in a post on the social media platform X.

    In remarks on the floor of the House of Representatives on Jan. 22, Frost said the closure would cost lives.

    “While lives are stolen, this admin is busy signing executive orders that have nothing to do with helping families and keeping them safe,” he said.

    His office did not respond to a request for comment by publication time.

    The gun control group Brady criticized the reported closure on its website, saying the office had reduced crime involving guns.

    “The White House Office of Gun Violence Prevention wasn’t about politics—it was about strengthening the government’s ability to protect Americans [more than 300 of whom are shot every single day] from guns. By shuttering it, Trump is putting the interests of the gun lobby above our kids, our communities, and our country,” Brady president Kris Brown’s statement reads.

    The office’s critics noted that it was staffed by longtime gun control activists and headed by Vice President Kamala Harris, who supports banning certain semiautomatic rifles and other gun control measures. They questioned the legitimacy of a government office they said was meant to block a constitutional right.

    “That office should have never existed, and President Trump is again proving his commitment to our Second Amendment rights,” Mark Oliva, Director of Public Affairs for the National Shooting Sports Foundation, told The Epoch Times.

    The Citizens Committee for the Right to Keep and Bear Arms echoed the sentiments in a Jan. 22 press release.

    Committee Chairman Alan Gottlieb alleged the office was an attempt by Biden to bypass Congress and advance his gun-control agenda.

    “Biden was trying to advance his gun control schemes with what amounted to a shadow government office because Congress rejected his extremist agenda of gun bans, gun registration, and other Second Amendment infringements,” Gottlieb stated in the press release.

    When the office opened, Kristine Lucius, deputy assistant to the president and domestic policy adviser to the vice president, said its mission was to “prevent gun violence and save lives.”

    Stefanie Feldman was the director of the office in addition to being a White House assistant to the president and staff secretary.

    Greg Jackson, who led the Community Action Fund, which the White House described as “a national, survivor-led gun violence prevention organization focused exclusively on the impact on black and brown communities,” was one of two deputy directors.

    Rob Wilcox, a senior director of federal government affairs at Everytown for Gun Safety who also worked for Brady and served on the board of directors of New Yorkers Against Gun Violence, was the second deputy director.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/24/2025 – 22:35

  • Distrust In Leaders (And Journalists) Ticks Up Again
    Distrust In Leaders (And Journalists) Ticks Up Again

    Edelman has once more released its annual Trust Barometer, capturing a snapshot of how people around the world feel about today’s leaders.

    The findings are hardly positive, with survey data revealing that an increasing proportion of respondents across the 28 polled countries worry that government and business leaders as well as journalists and reporters are purposely misleading people by saying things they know are false or are gross exaggerations.

    As Statista’s Anna Fleck shows in the chart below, around seven in ten people believe this to be the case for each of the groups of leaders, with distrust against journalists and reporters most widespread, albeit marginally.

    Infographic: Distrust in Leaders Ticks up Again | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    The share of people who worry about this has increased significantly since the survey was asked in 2021 (up 11-12 percentage points in each case).

    Respondents in the lower income quartile reported feeling greater levels of distrust of these leaders than those in the top quartile.

    Where 63 percent of high income respondents said they had trust in business, government, media and NGOs, the figure was just 48 percent among low income respondents.

    Scientists and teachers were the favored voices when respondents were asked which groups of people they thought could be trusted to do what is right, at 77 and 75 percent, respectively.

    More than 32,000 people were polled across 28 countries in each survey wave.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/24/2025 – 22:10

  • China's DeepSeek Bombshell Rocks Trump's $500BN AI Boondoggle
    China’s DeepSeek Bombshell Rocks Trump’s $500BN AI Boondoggle

    Authored by Mark Whitney,

    The future of humanity is being decided as we speak. And it is not being decided on a battlefield in Eastern Europe, or the Middle East or the Taiwan Strait, but in the data centers and research facilities where technology experts create “the physical and virtual infrastructure to power the next generation of Artificial Intelligence.” 

    This is a full-blown, scorched-earth free-for-all that has already racked up a number of casualties though you wouldn’t know it from reading the headlines which typically ignore recent ‘cataclysmic’ developments. But when President Trump announced the launching of a $500 billion AI infrastructure project (Stargate) on Tuesday just hours after China had released its DeepSeek R1—which “outperforms its rivals in advanced coding, math, and general knowledge capabilities”—it became painfully obvious that the battle for the future ‘is on’ in a big way. And this is not a battle that either side can afford to lose. Here’s how technology expert Adam Button summed it up:

    Imagine we’re back in 2017 and the iPhone X was just released. It was selling $999 and Apple was crushing sales and building a wide moat around its ecosystem.

    Now imagine, just days later, another company introduced a phone and platform that was equal in every way if not better and the price was just $30.

    That’s what unfolded in the AI space today. China’s DeepSeek released an opensource model that works on par with OpenAI’s latest models but costs a tiny fraction to operate. Moreover, you can even download it and run it free (or the cost of your electricity) for yourself.

    The product is a huge leap in terms of scaling and efficiency and may upend expectations of how much power and compute will be needed to manage the AI revolution. It also comes just hours before Trump is expected to unveil a $100 billion investment in US datacenters. The model shows there are different ways to train foundational AI models that offer up the same results with much less cost. It also opens up far more applications for AI that would have been too expensive to run previously, which should broaden the applications in the real economy. 

    – China’s DeepSeek may have just upended the economics of AI, forex live

    Imagine the panic that is spreading across western tech capitals right now. AI was supposed to be the fast-track to absolute societal control and oligarchic rule into the next millennia, but now those pesky Chinese have overturned the applecart leaving western elites with a problem they might not be able to fix. (See—Unchecked AI will lead us to a police state, edri ) They expected that their microchip sanctions would sabotage China’s AI efforts for at least a decade-or-so but, instead, China has come roaring back with a system that has left the tech giants gasping for air.

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    Of course, China’s eye-popping strides in technological development are nothing new as editor Ron Unz pointed out in a recent article where he noted that “between 2003 and 2007, the US led in 60 of the 64 technologies.” Whereas, as of 2022, “China led in 52 of the 64 technologies.” That’s not a competition; that’s a beat-down in a parking lot. Here’s Unz:

    China now leads the world in many of the most important future technologies. The success of its commercial companies in telecommunications (Huawei, Zongxin), EV (BYD, Geely, Great Wall, etc.), battery (CATL, BYD) and Photovoltaics (Tongwei Solar, JA, Aiko, etc.) are directly built on such R&D prowess.

    Similarly, the Chinese military’s modernization is built on the massive technological development of the country’s scientific community and its industrial base…. With its lead in science and technology research, China is positioned to outcompete the US in both economic and military arenas in the coming years…. American Pravda: China vs. America, Ron Unz, Unz Review

    None of this should come as a surprise, although the timing of DeepSeek’s release (preempting Trump’s Stargate announcement) shows that the Chinese don’t mind throwing a wrench in Washington’s global strategy if it serves their regional interests, which it undoubtedly does. Here’s a bit more background from an article by Benj Edwards at Ars Technica:

    On Monday, Chinese AI lab DeepSeek released its new R1 model family under an open MIT license, with its largest version containing 671 billion parameters. The company claims the model performs at levels comparable to OpenAI’s o1 simulated reasoning (SR) model on several math and coding benchmarks….

    The releases immediately caught the attention of the AI community because most existing open-weights models—have lagged behind proprietary models like OpenAI’s o1 in so-called reasoning benchmarks. …

    The R1 model works differently from typical large language models ….They attempt to simulate a human-like chain of thought as the model works through a solution to the query. This class of what one might call “simulated reasoning” models, or SR models for short, emerged when OpenAI debuted its o1 model family in September 2024. …

    DeepSeek reports that R1 outperformed OpenAI’s o1 on several benchmarks and tests, including AIME (a mathematical reasoning test), MATH-500 (a collection of word problems), and SWE-bench Verified (a programming assessment tool)….

    TechCrunch reports that three Chinese labs—DeepSeek, Alibaba, and Moonshot AI’s Kimi—have now released models they say match OpenAI’s o1’s capabilities, with DeepSeek first previewing R1 in November. Cutting-edge Chinese “reasoning” model rivals OpenAI o1—and it’s free to download, ars technica

    This is a very big deal. The United States intends to dominate the world in this critical technology and yet the upstart Chinese have not only produced a system that is every bit as good as America’s best, but have made it more affordable, more accessible and more transparent. What’s not to like?

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    (Note—OpenAI is an American artificial intelligence (AI) research laboratory. It is made up of the non-profit OpenAI Incorporated and its for-profit subsidiary corporation OpenAI Limited Partnership. OpenAI has emerged to be one of the primary leaders of the generative AI era. OpenAI is a privately held company that has open sourced some of its technology, but it has not open sourced most of its technology…. In contrast, DeepSeek AI R1 is open source which means its code is publicly accessible—anyone can see, modify, and distribute the code as they see fit. Open source software is developed in a decentralized and collaborative way, relying on peer review and community production.)

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    Here’s more from political analyst Arnaud Bertrand in a post on X:

    Most people probably don’t realize how bad the news (about) China’s Deepseek is for OpenAI. They’ve come up with a model that matches and even exceeds OpenAI’s latest model o1 on various benchmarks, and they’re charging just 3% of the price. It’s essentially as if someone had released a mobile on par with the iPhone but was selling it for $30 instead of $1000. It’s this dramatic.

    What’s more, they’re releasing it open-source so you even have the option – which OpenAI doesn’t offer – of not using their API at all and running the model for “free” yourself.

    If you’re an OpenAI customer today you’re obviously going to start asking yourself some questions, like “wait, why exactly should I be paying 30X more?”. This is pretty transformational stuff, it fundamentally challenges the economics of the market….

    So basically, it looks like the game has changed. All thanks to a Chinese company that just demonstrated how U.S. tech restrictions can backfire spectacularly – by forcing them to build more efficient solutions that they’re now sharing with the world at 3% of OpenAI’s prices. As the saying goes, sometimes pressure creates diamonds. @RnaudBertrand

    Get the picture?

    Everything the US has done to stymie China’s development—including economic sanctions, chips embargoes, military provocations, political meddling, even arresting a Huawei executive (truly pathetic)—has blown up in their faces.

    China’s well-educated, highly motivated, technologically adept workforce have produced a model of AI that equals or exceeds the best the West has to offer at a fraction of the cost and with open sourcing that allows users to
    modify, and distribute the code as they see fit.

    So, which version of AI sounds like a genuine benefit to humankind and which sounds like another scheme for transforming the world into a dystopian police-state controlled by aspiring tyrants and psychopathic control freaks? Here’s more from Bertrand on ‘why China is making AI available so cheap:

    ….it speaks to a different philosophy/vision on AI: ironically named “OpenAI” is basically about trying to establish a monopoly by establishing a moat with massive amounts of GPU and money. Deepseek is clearly betting on a future where AI becomes a commodity, widely available and affordable to everyone. By pricing so aggressively and releasing their code open-source, they’re not just competing with OpenAI but basically declaring that AI should be like electricity or internet connectivity – a basic utility that powers innovation rather than a premium service controlled by a few players. And in that world, it’s a heck of a lot better to be the first mover who helped make it happen than the legacy player who tried to stop it. @RnaudBertrand

    So, it’s basically like everything else in this sick, twisted world where a handful of money-grubbing miscreants muscle their way into a new technology so they can fatten their own bank accounts while planting their bootheel firmly on the neck of humanity. It seems to me that China’s approach is vastly superior in that it’s clearly aimed at providing the benefits of AI to the greatest number of people at the lowest possible cost. Here are a few random comments on China’s DeepSeek AI that I picked off X that show how excited people are about this groundbreaking version:

    The ramifications of this are huge. Every day China does something incredible, totally unlike the stagnation of the EU, talking all day while accomplishing nothing, or the latest evil plan oozing out of DC. This is just brilliant. & inspiring. & it WILL earn them more goodwill @CaptainCrusty66

    It’s the china recipe book for success for every industry where western oligopolies have dominated. @bbooker450

    AI will become a part of everyday infrastructure like electricity and tap water. DeepSeek is a signficant step towards that, thanks to its cost reduction and open source nature @MrBig2024

    We are living in a timeline where a non-US company is keeping the original mission of OpenAI alive – truly open, frontier research that empowers all…. @DrJimFan

    This is cool…this isn’t just another open source LLM release. this is o1-level reasoning capabilities that you can run locally, that you can modify and that you can study…
    that’s a very different world than the one we were in yesterday. Al, comments line

    Price comparison of OpenAI o1 and DeepSeek AI R1: R1 is significantly cheaper across all categories (96–98% savings). Now you know why big organizations don’t want open-source to continue, If humanity is ever going to benefit from AI, it will be from open-source . @ai_for_success

    China is overturning mainstream development theory in astonishing ways. China’s GDP per capita is only $12,000. That’s 70% less than the average in high-income countries. And yet they have the largest high-speed rail network in the world. They’ve developed their own commercial aircraft. They are the world leaders in renewable energy technology and electric vehicles. They have advanced medical technology, smartphone technology, microchip production, aerospace engineering… China has a higher life expectancy than the USA, with 80% less income. We were told that this kind of development required very high levels of GDP/cap. But over the past 10 years China has demonstrated that it can be achieved with much more modest levels of output. How do they do it? By using public finance and industrial policy to steer investment and production toward social objectives and national development needs. This allows them to convert aggregate production into development outcomes much more efficiently than other countries, where productive capacity is often wasted on activities that may be highly profitable to capital, or beneficial to the rich, but may not actually advance development. Of course, China still has development gaps that need to be addressed. And we know from some other countries that higher social indicators can be achieved with China’s level of GDP/cap, by focusing more on social policy. But the achievements are undeniable, and development economists are taking stock. @jasonhickel

    Unfortunately, the intensity of the competition between the US and China, ignores the inherent risks of Artificial Intelligence and its looming threat to human survival. In a recent analytical piece by the Rand Corporation titled AI and Geopolitics: How Might AI Affect the Rise and Fall of Nations?, the authors provide a disturbing window into a future in which “AI-enabled machines—of equivalent or greater intelligence and, potentially, highly disruptive capabilities” could pose a threat to our own existence. Keep in mind, the line between our historic reality and science fiction has already been crossed just as the probability that our own creation, AI, is likely “to become an actor, not just a factor” in the existential challenges faced by our species. Here’s a short blurb from this truly unsettling article:

    Although technology has often influenced geopolitics, the prospect of AI means that the technology itself could become a geopolitical actor. AI could have motives and objectives that differ considerably from those of governments and private companies. Humans’ inability to comprehend how AI “thinks” and our limited understanding of the second- and third-order effects of our commands or requests of AI are also very troubling. Humans have enough trouble interacting with one another. It remains to be seen how we will manage our relationships with one or more AIs….

    We are entering an era of both enlightenment and chaos…

    The borderless nature of AI makes it hard to control or regulate. As computing power expands, models are optimized, and open-source frameworks mature, the ability to create highly impactful AI applications will become increasingly diffuse. In such a world, well-intentioned researchers and engineers will use this power to do wonderful things, ill-intentioned individuals will use it to do terrible things, and AIs could do both wonderful and terrible things. The net result is neither an unblemished era of enlightenment nor an unmitigated disaster, but a mix of both. Humanity will learn to muddle through and live with this game-changing technology, just as we have with so many other transformative technologies in the past….

    The potential dangers posed by AI are many. At the extreme, they include the threat of human extinction, which could come about by an AI-enabled catastrophe, such as a well-designed virus that spreads easily, evades detection, and destroys our civilization. Less dire, but considerably worrisome, is the threat to democratic governance if AIs gain power over people….

    AI cannot be contained through regulation, so the best policy will aim to minimize the harm that AI might do. This will probably be most critical in biosecurity,[3] but harm reduction also includes countering cybersecurity threats, strengthening democratic resilience, and developing emergency response options for a wide variety of threats from state and sub- and non-state actors…..

    In light of the likely very widespread proliferation of advanced AI capabilities to private- and public-sector actors and well-resourced individuals, governments should work closely with leading private-sector entities to develop advanced forecasting tools, wargames, and strategic plans for dealing with what experts anticipate will be a wide variety of unexpected AI-enabled catastrophic events. AI and Geopolitics: How Might AI Affect the Rise and Fall of Nations?, RAND

    In other words, humanity should encourage their business and political leaders to exercise sound judgement and prepare for unexpected disasters that could terminate the species.

    That is simply not sufficient defense for the challenge we face.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/24/2025 – 21:45

  • Conflict In The Middle East: Which Countries Think It Will End In 2025?
    Conflict In The Middle East: Which Countries Think It Will End In 2025?

    The ceasefire announced in January 2025 by Israel and Hamas was celebrated by both sides after months of mediation by the U.S., Qatar, and Egypt. However, lasting peace depends on a series of demands both parties agreed to.

    Beyond the Gaza conflict, the Middle East continues to grapple with civil wars and political instability in countries such as Syria and Iraq.

    This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti, presents the results of a survey conducted by Ipsos, which asked people in different countries if they believe the conflicts in the Middle East will end in 2025.

    Methodology: Ipsos surveyed 33 countries between Friday, October 25, and Friday, November 8, 2024. The survey included 23,721 adults aged 18 and older.

    Most Are Pessimistic About the Middle East

    The majority of respondents and countries chose “Unlikely”, meaning that they do not believe conflicts will end in 2025.

    Country Likely (%) Unsure (%) Unlikely (%)
    🇮🇳 India 55 13 32
    🇨🇳 China 50 11 39
    🇮🇩 Indonesia 46 11 43
    🇲🇾 Malaysia 42 20 38
    🇹🇭 Thailand 35 16 49
    🇵🇭 Philippines 34 15 51
    🇿🇦 South Africa 29 19 52
    🇸🇬 Singapore 27 18 55
    🇲🇽 Mexico 25 15 60
    🇵🇪 Peru 22 24 54
    🇮🇪 Ireland 21 12 67
    🇰🇷 South Korea 21 18 61
    🇧🇷 Brazil 20 21 59
    🇷🇴 Romania 19 17 64
    🇮🇹 Italy 19 17 64
    🇨🇭 Switzerland 19 14 67
    🇺🇸 United States 19 16 65
    🇹🇷 Türkiye 18 9 73
    🇪🇸 Spain 17 17 66
    🇨🇱 Chile 17 20 63
    🇩🇪 Germany 16 13 71
    🇭🇺 Hungary 16 21 63
    🇨🇴 Colombia 14 27 59
    🇦🇺 Australia 14 14 72
    🇧🇪 Belgium 14 11 75
    🇵🇱 Poland 13 18 69
    🇨🇦 Canada 12 20 68
    🇫🇷 France 12 13 75
    🇬🇧 Great Britain 12 13 75
    🇳🇱 Netherlands 11 9 80
    🇦🇷 Argentina 11 28 61
    🇸🇪 Sweden 11 8 81
    🇯🇵 Japan 9 24 67
    🌐 Global Country Avg. 22 16 62

    People in the Netherlands and Sweden are the most pessimistic about the resolution of conflicts in the region.

    Meanwhile, China and India have the highest share of respondents who believe the conflicts could end this year.

    In the United States, 52% said it is unlikely, while 26% believe in peace for the region, and 22% remain unsure.

    If you enjoyed this topic, check out this graphic that presents the results of another survey conducted by Ipsos, which asked people in different countries whether they believe the conflict in Ukraine will end in 2025.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/24/2025 – 21:20

  • Affordable Broadband Law In New York Led AT&T To Drop 5G Home Service Entirely
    Affordable Broadband Law In New York Led AT&T To Drop 5G Home Service Entirely

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    Neither New York nor California understands that companies won’t sell products for a loss…

    Hoot of the Day

    My hoot of the day is AT&T Is Stopping Its 5G Internet Air Service in NY Because of New Broadband Law

    A new broadband law is going into effect this week in New York state requiring internet provider to offer low-income residents access to monthly broadband rates of $15 for 25Mbps or $20 for 200Mbps. As a response, AT&T has decided that it no longer plans to offer its 5G home internet in the Empire State and will begin notifying users about the decision on Wednesday. 

    “While we are committed to providing reliable and affordable internet service to customers across the country, New York’s broadband law imposes harmful rate regulations that make it uneconomical for AT&T to invest in and expand our broadband infrastructure in the state,” the company said in a statement provided to CNET. 

    “As a result, effective Jan. 15, 2025, we will no longer be able to offer AT&T Internet Air, our fixed-wireless internet service, to New York customers.”

    New York first passed its broadband law back in 2021, with an appeals court allowing it to move forward last April after legal challenges looked to thwart it. The US Supreme Court decided in December that it wouldn’t hear challenges to the new law.

    Lessons from California and New York

    In New York, 5G service is now so affordable that you can’t get service at all.

    That’s a minor nuisance compared to California, where policy mandates by Governor Newsom led to cancelled policies.

    CBS News reports Thousands of Los Angeles homeowners were dropped by their insurers before the Palisades Fire

    About 1,600 policies in Pacific Palisades were dropped by State Farm in July, California Department of Insurance spokesman Michael Soller said in an Thursday email to CBS MoneyWatch. An analysis of insurance data by CBS News San Francisco last year found that State Farm also dropped more than 2,000 policies in two other Los Angeles ZIP codes, which include the Brentwood, Calabasas, Hidden Hills and Monte Nido neighborhoods.

    State Farm’s decision reflects a trend of private insurers, including Allstate and Farmers Insurance, of dropping California policies or halting underwriting, leaving homeowners with the choice of getting coverage through the insurer of last resort, the California Fair Access to Insurance Requirements Plan, or FAIR Plan, or forgo insurance altogether. The FAIR Plan provides basic fire insurance coverage for properties in high-risk areas when traditional insurance companies will not.

    Seems to me that State Farm, Allstate, and Farmers did their homework.

    California would not let State Farm price for risk, so the companies decided not to renew policies.

    Not content with already disastrous stupidity, a new regulation mandates Business
    Insurance Companies in California Must Offer Coverage in Wildfire-Prone Areas    .

    Insurance companies will be legally required to write policies in those areas “equivalent to no less than 85% of their statewide market share.” Coverage won’t increase to that threshold immediately. Instead, companies will be given a requirement of a 5% increase every two years.

    Every insurer in California should leave the state unless they can price according to risk.

    Even if the insurers stay, understand they will have to overprice elsewhere if they underprice fire prone areas.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/24/2025 – 20:55

  • These Are The World's Worst Organized-Crime Hot-Spots
    These Are The World’s Worst Organized-Crime Hot-Spots

    Organized crime groups have surged in recent decades, aided by the rise of synthetic drugs, encrypted technologies, and multinational operations.

    For instance, a leading Brazilian mob has 60,000 affiliates spread across 26 countries in addition to its 40,000 members. Moreover, criminal actors are increasingly diversifying their operations, engaging in activities such as human smuggling, drug trafficking, and the exploitation of food supply chains.

    This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld, shows organized crime hot spots around the world, based on data from the Global Organized Crime Index.

    Methodology

    The Global Organized Crime Index analyzes 193 countries based on their scale of criminal activity. It includes three main components:

    • Criminal actor influence and structure: e.g. mafia-style groups, criminal networks, state-embedded actors

    • Criminal market scale and impact: e.g. arms trafficking, heroin trade, human trafficking

    • Each country’s resilience to organized crime: e.g. judicial system, government transparency

    Overall, countries were scored on a scale of 0 to 10 by the extent to which organized crime groups exert control over their direct economic activities.

    Where Organized Crime Groups Are the Most Powerful

    Below, we show the top 30 hubs for organized crime groups worldwide:

    Central and South America have the highest concentration of organized crime globally, with the most widespread criminal activity in Venezuela and Colombia.

    In particular, criminal actors are known for serious extortion practices, human smuggling, and illegal arms trafficking. The economic crisis in Venezuela, which has forced millions to flee, has contributed to the rise in human smuggling and trafficking, with victims being targeted even beyond the Colombian-Venezuelan border.

    In Mexico, criminal actors are increasingly targeting the food industry, including avocados, tortillas, potatoes, and limes, among others.

    Myanmar also stands as a key hub for human trafficking, with an estimated 120,000 victims being used for forced labor in scam centers. These scam centers, which generate billions of dollars, operate largely along border of China and Myanmar, where victims are lured by significant perks.

    Meanwhile, the illicit arms trade in pervasive across Somalia. The jihadist group, al-Shabab, has infiltrated political and economic structures, serving as a key player in illegal arms trafficking. Each year, the group is estimated to make $100 million from its extortion activities alone.

    To learn more about this topic from a homicide perspective, check out this graphic on the world’s highest homicide rates by region.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/24/2025 – 20:30

  • Can Trump Save The Dollar?
    Can Trump Save The Dollar?

    Authored by J.R.Macleod via The Mises Institute,

    During his 2024 presidential campaign Donald Trump repeatedly and in grave terms highlighted the possibility of the US dollar losing its world reserve currency status. This occurred at summits with business leaders at the New York and Chicago Economic Clubs.

    Trump occupies a rather unique position in this debate since he recognizes the real possibility of the dollar losing its world currency status, he opposes this change and wishes to prevent it, and yet he is not a paradigmatic member of the ruling class. However mainstream he is—today or in the past—he doesn’t possess the establishment credentials of a Ben Bernanke, for instance.

    Since Trump doesn’t want the dollar to lose reserve currency status, his acknowledgment that this is a real possibility should at least serve as ammunition against those who are oblivious to this change, or who claim that it isn’t happening. Typically, when dollar defenders argue that the loss of reserve currency status is an impossibility, they are arguing against those who wish for this change to happen. When Trump says that the dollar could lose its reserve status—even though he opposes this change—it at least undercuts the factual basis of those dollar defenders who claim its status is secure.

    Admittedly, the possible loss of reserve currency status is not a short-term trend. Anyone claiming the demise of the dollar is imminent—and particularly anyone trying to sell you a financial package on this basis—should be treated with skepticism. But there is a bizarre school of thought which downplays all blows to the dollar’s position, and claims that these events are insignificant. There are, in fact, many significant events occurring, and they are stacking up to present a real threat to the dollar’s position. Events such as Saudi Arabia trading oil in other currencies, BRICs countries developing a new payment system, and China rapidly decreasing its holdings of US treasuries. How can these events not mean anything?

    Source

    If the dollar is in jeopardy, and Trump wants to save it, the question then becomes: can he save it? One approach to achieving this goal would be to manage the dollar more competently. This would involve less creation of new money (inflation), since many national economies were severely destabilized by the massive inflation of recent years. It would also involve a judicious, non-ideological use of dollar-based power, as opposed to weaponizing the dollar over conflicts where a nation perceives its fundamental interests are at stake, and the US interest is peripheral at best, and unjustified at worst. The other approach would be to get tough; to threaten countries who move away from holding the dollar for forex purposes with either economic or military power.

    Trump has made noise about both approaches, though he seems to lean most heavily towards the use of tariffs to prevent nations from breaking away. In my view, the aggressive approach would only accelerate current trends, since this was the path taken from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 up until now, and it created the situation in the first place. A Trump administration managing the dollar the way it used to be managed could placate other nations and slow down current trends, but I think that is all it could do, rather than permanently halt and reverse these developments. A fundamental rupture has occurred and too many important nations perceive it as a fundamental interest to break the power of the dollar as the world reserve currency in the long term. They may be happier if this process is managed slowly and without disruption, but they are committed to it.

    In my view, it is impossible for Trump to stop the process of de-dollarization. Regardless of how much success he is able to achieve, we should also ask whether this is the right goal in the first place. Undoubtedly the dollar losing global reserve currency status would cause significant short-term economic pain for the American people. Trump seems to have the noble intention of avoiding this pain, but we also know that markets can respond to these events and get the economy working again rather quickly when left alone. Beyond markets, there is also the calculation, by which the government could adjust the ratio of its gold holdings to the dollar (assuming implementation of a hard gold standard). This is explained by Murray Rothbard in the final chapter of The Case Against the Fed. In the event that the dollar loses its reserve status, this plan could very quickly restore the currency to a sound position.

    It may seem noble to attempt to reinforce the reserve status of the dollar, but defending the Fed, the fiat dollar, and global reserve currency status are the economic equivalent of defending death by strangulation just because it’s slow. This currency system supports the bloated welfare-warfare functions of the government. It has hollowed out American industry by financialization and the fact that dollars can be created out of thin air to pay for goods and services domestically and abroad. This tremendously undercuts genuine production and wealth generation.

    Because this system creates such an unnatural and unproductive economy, and though this economy has such pernicious effects on society, collapse is inherent in the system sooner or later. The longer the system lasts, the more rot sets in, and the worse the eventual collapse will be.

    This discussion brings us to the subject of institutionalism. There is a powerful tendency in politics to regard an institution as one’s own, long after one’s own faction has lost it, or even where the institution never belonged to one’s own faction in the first place. Accompanying this is the tendency to want to reform institutions recognized as not aligned with one’s own faction, rather than destroy them.

    Being unable to recognize when an institution is opposed to one’s political goals, and being unable to recognize when an opposing institution is irredeemably opposed to these goals and, therefore, not subject to reform, can prevent a faction from achieving its desired political goals. In these cases, all energy—by the fact of being directed into these institutions—is then redirected against the goals the political faction wishes to achieve.

    According to Trump’s stated goals of wishing to revitalize the American economy on behalf of the American people—and not government or corporate special interests—the Federal Reserve and the fiat dollar it supports are irredeemable institutions. Trying to reform and reinforce the status of the dollar as global reserve currency will never achieve these goals. People may be able to point to this or that improvement in economic conditions over the next few years, but I am talking about systemic change and a lasting victory. It is hard to argue that these aren’t necessary over and above small improvements.

    Between the Biden administration inadvertently and obliviously endangering the global reserve currency status of the dollar through its own incompetence, and Trump’s intention to undo this damage, there is a better path. Any future American administration should create a plan to manage the transition away from the fiat dollar as global reserve currency towards a national gold dollar, that is, a national policy of a 100 percent gold-backed dollar, where other countries are free to set their own monetary policy. This would vastly improve the American economy as well as international relations.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/24/2025 – 20:05

  • "Nervousness" Ripples Across Coffee Market As Prices Hit Fresh Record Highs
    “Nervousness” Ripples Across Coffee Market As Prices Hit Fresh Record Highs

    Arabica coffee futures surged to record highs on Friday, fueled by the ongoing global supply crunch. The most-active contract climbed nearly 2% in late morning trading, reaching the highest price levels on record dating back to 1972. The multi-year parabolic move in coffee prices only suggests higher Starbucks and/or supermarket market prices in the months ahead if hedges fail to offset bean inflation. 

    The big price jump has traders reducing their exposure to the futures market due to elevated costs, making the market more prone to volatility.

    Bloomberg data shows aggregate open interest — or the number of outstanding contracts — has declined in the past five years while prices moved higher. 

    Bloomberg’s Dayanne Sousa and Mumbi Gitau provided readers with bean supply concerns coming out of top grower Brazil: 

    After record shipments in 2024, Brazil should see a slowdown ahead “mainly due to the next arabica crop likely being smaller,” analysts at Itau BBA bank wrote in a report.

    That’s a concern in a period when global stockpiles remain tight. The fact that previously strong exports from Brazil weren’t enough to replenish world inventories “shows that demand has not yet allowed there to be an excess of coffee on the market,” said broker Thiago Cazarini, president of Cazarini Trading Co.

    Another reminder of the tightness in global supplies was this week’s decline in bean stockpiles held at exchange- monitored warehouses. That could indicate “robust spot demand in Europe,” said Tomas Araujo, a trading associate at StoneX.

    In a separate note, Bloomberg’s Ilena Peng and Mumbi Gitau said:

    Prices have been boosted by concerns about the output in top producer Brazil, where a drought reduced the potential production for the upcoming season. The decline in certified arabica stockpiles held at exchange-monitored warehouses this week is another reminder of continuing supply concerns. The surge is causing nervousness among coffee buyers already faced with tight global inventories and supply chain constraints, said Tomas Araujo, a trading associate at StoneX

    The bean surge should not only make commercial coffee buyers nervous but also leave consumers uneasy, as there are no indications that global food inflation will ease in the first quarter of 2025.  

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/24/2025 – 19:40

  • Canadian Premier Says US Retaliatory Tariffs Should Be Targeted
    Canadian Premier Says US Retaliatory Tariffs Should Be Targeted

    Authored by Carolina Avenando via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe says he supports targeted counter-tariffs in response to potential U.S. tariffs, but firmly opposes retaliatory export taxes on Canadian goods. His comments come as more premiers are taking issue with different aspects of the “Team Canada” tariff response.

    Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe speaks during a press conference in Regina, Sask., on Oct. 25, 2023. The Canadian Press/Heywood Yu

    Ottawa’s talks on retaliation have recently escalated to include wider measures, such as dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs and export taxes, Moe said at a Jan. 22 press conference, following a meeting between the premiers and the prime minister to discuss Canada’s response to U.S. tariff threats.

    Moe said he isn’t in favour of such “broad-based” retaliatory measures, arguing they would be “hurtful to the entirety of North Americans,” and that he instead supports “very small, targeted” counter-tariffs, designed to change the minds of American policy-makers.

    “We would be against all export tariffs because they’re counterproductive, they’re escalating the conversation around tariffs,” Moe said. “In no way is it our opinion that the Canadian government should be taxing the very products that are creating wealth for Canadians.”

    “But I think we can find a way through some targeted initiatives that don’t have as large an impact on the broader economy, and Canadians and North Americans,” he added.

    U.S. President Donald Trump didn’t impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico on the first day of his presidency on Jan. 20, but suggested they may come on Feb. 1. Trump first threatened tariffs following his election in November 2024, saying the two countries needed to address drug smuggling and illegal immigration at their borders into the United States.

    Converging With Alberta’s Smith

    Moe said he shares Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s concerns on the negative impacts of export taxes on their provinces’ economies.

    Smith has been a vocal opponent of retaliation, particularly export tariffs on Canadian oil and gas, saying they would have devastating impacts on her oil-producing province, whose main trading partner is the United States. Instead, she has advocated for a diplomatic approach, arguing the current U.S. administration is unlikely to respond favourably to threats.

    Last week, Smith was the only premier who refused to sign a joint statement by the prime minister and other premiers in response to U.S. tariffs, saying she could not fully support the federal government’s plan unless it stopped floating the idea of making energy export bans or tariffs part of Canada’s response. She added that, should Ottawa impose such measures, her province would take “whatever actions are needed to protect the livelihoods of Albertans.”

    Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and some premiers, including Ontario’s Doug Ford, accused Smith of not being a team player, saying she was advocating for her province at the expense of the country.

    At his Jan. 22 address, Moe said that while he’ll try to “work together where we can” with Ottawa, he will stand up for his province if the federal government implements export tariffs.

    “We’ll be protecting Saskatchewan residents when it comes to the natural resources, which is under the provincial jurisdiction, [including] how we produce them and where we export them tariff-free,” he said.

    Earlier in the day, Quebec Premier François Legault spoke against the idea of Ottawa adopting export bans or tariffs unilaterally, saying such measures should only be implemented if the provinces involved agree.

    Meanwhile, other premiers emerged from the Jan. 22 meeting in support of solid retaliatory measures. “We know these tariffs are coming on Feb. 1,” said Ontario’s Ford. “We need to match those tariffs dollar-for-dollar, tariff-for-tariff, and make sure that it hurts the Americans as much as it hurts Canadians.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/24/2025 – 19:15

  • Veteran Democrat Strategist Admits 'Resistance' Has No Response To Trump, Begs Biden To Disappear
    Veteran Democrat Strategist Admits ‘Resistance’ Has No Response To Trump, Begs Biden To Disappear

    Veteran Democrat strategist James Carville admitted on the Politics War Room podcast that the Democrat Party is struggling to keep up with President Donald Trump’s highly productive first week of his second term. Carville, a seasoned political consultant who managed Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign, also directed sharp criticism at President Joe Biden to host Al Hunt, urging the former president to “just get out of the way” and make room for a new generation of Democrats to take back power from the America First movement.

    AL HUNT: I wish I could say something good about this week. Maybe in the course of the show, we’ll think of something. But the Trump inaugural and subsequent actions were dark, depressing, demoralizing and not surprising. Trump dominates Washington. I’ve been in this town for what, 55 years. I got to stop counting. And he dominates today like no other president I’ve seen. And he dominates with a reckless disregard for truth and more importantly, for the rule of law.

    JAMES CARVILLE: Well, I guess, you know, we sit here and you look at the crypto giant grift. It’s such a giant grift. Now, the other crypto people are mad because it’s such a grift is infringing on their territory. You look at the pardons of the January six violent criminals who assaulted police officers. All right. You look at his executive order suspending every president has anything to do with DEI. OK, you look at all of his stuff that is starting, you know, deportations, God knows what not. It’s a total confusion over TikTok, which he knows nothing. And what is the response? The Democrats are depressed, doesn’t have a way to deal with this because usually people would put something out and it would be the story of the day. And then you could follow that and they defend the story of people would attack it.

    Now he has 10 things out there of all of the things that you mentioned. What should the Democrats focus on? What they will end up doing is what they always do. They will focus on all 10. And they will do no good to me. The biggest one was the secretary of Treasury, a billionaire, telling the Senate committee that we can’t we can’t have a minimum wage raise. Then wages last raised in 2009. I’d love to know the salaries of the chart, the salaries of high income people since 2009. People over a million dollars, how their wealth is growing, what happened to people who outlawed part of hourly wages growing.

    Of course, we would know the answer to that without a doubt. And the hardest thing to do going forward, and I don’t have a lot of confidence that we can do that, that we can just pick something to the exclusion of 20 other things, because people will say, well, how could you not say something about that? Well, it’s not that I don’t think it’s a big issue. But if I say something about that and I say something about this and I say about this and that and I say something about that and this, I’ve lost my ability to communicate. And this is an unprecedented way that they’re going about this. And Steve Bannon, I think the guy was right. He said, we’re just going to flood the zone with sh*t. And we’re now flooded with sh*t and we just don’t have a response. We just don’t.

    AL HUNT: Oh, James, it’s going to continue for a long time. I think the Biden pardons of Mark Milley, Liz Cheney, Tony Fauci, the January 16th, it made me uncomfortable. And I actually hope a couple of them reject the pardon, which you can do. But Trump and his band made clear they want revenge. They’re going after Mark Milley, Liz Cheney and Tony Fauci, though there is no case whatsoever. So at least I understand the logic of that. You know, right wingers like Jim Banks, a new senator from Indiana, said Liz Cheney ought to be held accountable. For what? For what should Liz Cheney be held accountable for?

    It’s nonsense. I must say, I think that Trump’s pardon of his family is a different matter and totally indefensible. On this show, we both kind of uncomfortably agree the Hunter Biden pardon was understandable because Trump might use it. If Hunter Biden goes to prison, Trump could say, hey, I’m going to send him to X, Y or Z, depending on what Biden says or does. That’s what Trump does. But to pardon his brother, his sister, his brother-in-law, sister-in-law and others, who it’s a preemptive pardon. They haven’t been even charged with anything. I is as bad as Trump’s sleazy pardon of Roger Stone and Paul Manafort and Michael Flynn, all of whom have been convicted or something. You know, probably not. But I really think I’m really upset that Biden did that.

    JAMES CARVILLE: Well, this is the kind of truth of where we are. All of us know Biden. Actually, we know you and I know him personally. And I think it’s fair to say that we’re long time at some level admirers of Joe Biden. And what he’s done to himself is no one wants to hear from this guy anymore. OK, just go to your condo in Rehoboth and stay there. And that’s not because we’re bad people or we mean people. It was all his doing, all his doing, this entire thing in this kind of petty back and forth. Oh, I would have beat Trump. No one believes that at all. And then fighting with Joe Biden and Alexander Pelosi. I mean, just look, guy, you drove, you had a noble career. Your last act was terrible. Just get out of the way. The party’s moving on. I mean, they’re really moving on. And it’s very sad that. But that’s just where we are. And he created this himself. Does he have nobody to blame but himself? Nobody.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/24/2025 – 18:50

  • Trump Signals He May Withhold Federal Aid To California Over Water Policies
    Trump Signals He May Withhold Federal Aid To California Over Water Policies

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he is considering withholding federal aid to California following a series of devastating wildfires if the state doesn’t change its water policies.

    U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a news conference in the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington on Jan. 21, 2025. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

    In an interview with Fox News Channel’s Sean Hannity, he reasserted that the state’s fish conservation efforts in Northern California are linked to problems with water availability amid the wildfires that erupted earlier this month. He also placed part of the blame on Gov. Gavin Newsom for not being able to quickly tame the fires.

    “I don’t think we should give California anything until they let water flow down,” he said.

    In the interview, Trump also confirmed that he will visit Los Angeles on Friday after visiting North Carolina, which was devastated by Hurricane Helene last fall. However, the president said he doesn’t know if he will meet with Newsom.

    “Look, Gavin’s got one thing he can do: He can release the water that comes from the north. There is massive amounts of water, rainwater, and mountain water that comes due with the snow, comes down … as it melts. There’s so much water,” Trump said, referring to Newsom, a Democrat.

    On Monday, Trump signed an executive order directing federal agencies to “route more water” from Northern California’s Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta to other parts of the Golden State due to the wildfires in what he said was an attempt to end “radical environmentalism” that was essentially putting fish over people.

    “The recent deadly and historically destructive wildfires in Southern California underscore why the State of California needs a reliable water supply and sound vegetation management practices in order to provide water desperately needed there, and why this plan must immediately be reimplemented,” the White House said.

    At a news conference a day earlier, Trump said that “Los Angeles has massive amounts of water available to it.”

    “All they have to do is turn the valve,” he said.

    Earlier in January, Newsom wrote a letter to Trump asking him to survey the devastation caused by the Los Angeles fires firsthand and meet with first responders. In an interview with NBC News’s “Meet the Press,” the governor also disputed Trump’s assertion about the fish and water shortages in Los Angeles.

    Trump, he said, is “somehow connecting the delta smelt to this fire, which is inexcusable because it’s inaccurate.”

    “Also, incomprehensible to anyone that understands water policy in the state,” Newsom said.

    On Jan. 10, then-President Joe Biden said at an event that local utility companies intentionally shut off the power in Los Angeles, which led to water shortages during the fires.

    “What I know from talking to the governor, that there are concerns out there that there’s also been a water shortage,“ Biden said in a briefing. ”The fact is the utilities, understandably, shut off power because they are worried the lines that carried energy were going to be blown down and spark additional fires.

    “When it did that, it cut off the ability to generate pumping the water. That’s what caused the lack of water in these hydrants.”

    During the Hannity interview, Trump signaled that significant changes could be coming to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) because he would rather see individual states deal with their respective natural disaster responses.

    The president also said he believes FEMA, which is handling some wildfire recovery efforts, has performed poorly over the “last four years.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/24/2025 – 18:25

  • Trump Halts Ukraine Aid As State Dept "Totally Went Nuclear" On Foreign Assistance
    Trump Halts Ukraine Aid As State Dept “Totally Went Nuclear” On Foreign Assistance

    The Trump State Department on Friday halted spending on almost all foreign aid grants for 90 days, which also appears to apply to funding for military assistance to Ukraine, Politico reports.

    The guidance, issued by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, was sent to all diplomatic and consular posts, and orders all department staffers to issue “stop-work orders” on nearly all “existing foreign assistance awards.”

    It appears to go further than President Donald Trump’s recent executive order, which instructed the department to pause foreign aid grants for 90 days pending review by the secretary. It had not been clear from the president’s order if it would affect already appropriated funds or Ukraine aid.

    The new guidance means no further actions will be taken to disperse aid funding to programs already approved by the U.S. government, according to three current and two former officials familiar with the new guidance. -Politico

    Rubio also outlined the Trump administration’s stance on spending, saying “Every dollar we spend, every program we fund, and every policy we pursue must be justified with the answer to three simple questions,” Rubio wrote. The questions: Does the action make America safer, stronger, and more prosperous?

    The new order reportedly shocked State Department officials.

    “State just totally went nuclear on foreign assistance,” a State Department official told Politico.

    Rubio was confirmed unanimously by the Senate the day before and is the first of Trump’s Cabinet nominees on the job. Previously, he was a senior senator from Florida, and he served on the Foreign Relations Committee for more than a decade. He developed a reputation as a China Hawk and a fierce critic of the neoliberal foreign policy consensus that emerged after the Cold War.

    Shortly after taking the oath of office, he sent a lengthy cable to every US diplomatic and consular post worldwide letting them know that the Biden administration had mistakenly emphasized “ideology over common sense,” and “misread the world.”

    You’ll Never Guess Who Still Gets Aid…

    The document specifies that Israel and Egypt will continue to receive that sweet, sweet US taxpayer money. It also allows emergency food assistance and “legitimate expenses incurred prior to the date of this” guidance “under existing awards,” and also that decisions need to be “consistent with the terms of the relevant award.”

    One State Department official as well as two former Biden admin officials told Politico that the pause appears to stop aid to Ukraine, Jordan and Taiwan, while the report suggests that the guidance could open the US government to civil liability from lawsuits over unfulfilled contracts if the terms are deemed to have been violated, said the current and former officials. That said, the note from Rubio clearly states that decision need to be “consistent with the terms of the relevant award.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/24/2025 – 18:04

  • Popeyes Cooking Up Partnership With Don Julio In Possible Mass-Market Tequila Blitz To Save Diageo
    Popeyes Cooking Up Partnership With Don Julio In Possible Mass-Market Tequila Blitz To Save Diageo

    Trending on X late Friday afternoon is a short promotional video about a partnership between Diageo’s Don Julio tequila brand and American fast-food chain Popeyes. The partnership, set to be officially unveiled on January 31, puzzled the hell out of the internet. However, in the context of the ‘great tequila bust‘ and Diageo’s mounting headwinds, the mass-market strategy to push tequila through unconventional sales channels, such as quick-service restaurants, begins to make a whole lot of sense.

    Popeyes’ official Instagram account released a short promotional video with the subtext: “The kitchen is heating up for the big game. Party starts 1.31.25.” Text at the end of the video showed what appears to be a partnership of some sort between Popeyes and Don Julio. Details are scant, and the internet was very confused, while others were excited about tequila and fried chicken. 

    Fried chicken and liquor might sound like a party—or potentially a disastrous combination that could leave Popeyes’ customer base puking up a storm. Maybe the internet is confused, but we are not. 

    British spirits giant Diageo is in dire straits as cash-strapped consumers have dialed back alcohol spending. Goldman analyst Jack McFerran told clients last week that “there is no sign of a bottom, with risks still skewed to the downside” for European shares in the company. 

    In July 2024, CEO Debra Crew warned, “You do see persistent inflation that is really weighing on consumers and weighing on their wallets.”

    Given that cash-strapped consumers have pulled back on liquor, an oversupply tequila crisis has emerged in Mexico, which has caused agave prices to crash the most since the Dot Com crash. 

    Mexico’s Tequila Regulatory Council recently shared data with Financial Times that showed the industry had 525 million liters of tequila in inventory, either aging in barrels or about to be bottled, by the end of 2023. Of the 599 million liters of tequila produced in 2023, about one-sixth remained in inventory. 

    “Much more new spirit is being distilled than is being sold, and inventories are starting to accumulate,” Bernstein analyst Trevor Stirling wrote in a note earlier this month. He said rising inventory levels were due to sliding demand and new distillery capacity coming online. 

    Stirling warned: “The tequila industry is set for a very turbulent 2025.”

    Given the dire oversupplied conditions in Mexico, coupled with Diageo’s sliding demand for its liquor products, it now becomes entirely clear why the spirits company has explored an unconventional sales channel: partnering with a major QSR to potentially launch Don Julio for the mass market and help jump-start demand to draw down elevated tequila inventories. In return, this could add support for Diageo’s imploding stock. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/24/2025 – 18:00

  • Trump Terminates Fauci's Security Detail
    Trump Terminates Fauci’s Security Detail

    Authored by Jackson Richman via The Epoch Times,

    President Donald Trump has terminated former National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Fauci’s security detail.

    Trump justified the move on Jan. 24.

    “When you work for government, at some point, your security detail comes off and you can’t have them forever,” he told reporters in North Carolina, where he is visiting the damage caused last year by Hurricane Helene.

    “So I think it’s very standard.”

    “You can’t have a security detail for the rest of your life because you worked for government.”

    Trump has criticized Fauci, who served in his role between 1984 and 2022, over his response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

    “Based on their interviews, I felt it was time to speak up about Dr. Fauci and Dr. [Deborah] Birx, two self-promoters trying to reinvent history to cover for their bad instincts and faulty recommendations, which I fortunately almost always overturned,” Trump said in March 2021, referring to a 2021 CNN documentary.

    “They had bad policy decisions that would have left our country open to China and others, closed to reopening our economy, and years away from an approved vaccine—putting millions of lives at risk.”

    The Epoch Times has reached out to Fauci via Georgetown University where he works.

    Trump has stripped other former Trump administration officials of their security detail.

    On Jan. 21, the president ended former national security adviser John Bolton’s Secret Service protection.

    “I am disappointed but not surprised that President Trump has decided to terminate the protection previously provided by the United States Secret Service,” Bolton wrote in a post on X.

    “Notwithstanding my criticisms of President Biden’s national-security policies, he nonetheless made the decision to extend that protection to me in 2021.

    “The Justice Department filed criminal charges against an Iranian Revolutionary Guard official in 2022 for attempting to hire a hit man to target me.

    “That threat remains today, as also demonstrated by the recent arrest of someone trying to arrange for President Trump’s own assassination. The American people can judge for themselves which president made the right call.”

    Trump said that Fauci and Bolton “made a lot of money” and therefore could hire their own security.

    On Jan. 23, Trump terminated former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former special envoy for Iran Brian Hook’s security details.

    “When you have protection, you can’t have it for the rest of your life,” he told reporters in the Oval Office. “Do you want to have a large detail of people guarding people for the rest of their lives? I mean, there’s risks to everything.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/24/2025 – 17:40

  • Four In Ten See Hostile Activism As Acceptable
    Four In Ten See Hostile Activism As Acceptable

    Edelman released the 25th edition of its Trust Barometer this week, providing insight on how people around the world feel about today’s leaders and institutions.

    This year’s report highlights the grievances of people who feel a disconnect between the haves and have-nots.

    The survey found that more than six in ten respondents agree that the wealthy don’t pay their fair share of taxes (67 percent) and that the wealthy’s selfishness causes many of our problems (65 percent).

    Meanwhile, a majority said that they held a moderate or high sense of grievance against business, government and the rich in 23 out of 26 countries polled.

    This opinion was most commonly shared in Spain, Nigeria, South Africa, the UK and Kenya (all between 70-72 percent).

    But, perhaps most notably, Statista’s Anna Fleck points out that the report also found that as many as four in ten would approve of violence or hostile activism in order to drive societal changes that would give themselves or their family a better future.

    Infographic: Four in Ten See Hostile Activism as Acceptable | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    This belief was particularly widespread among younger respondents, with just over half (53 percent) of 18-35 year olds supporting the statement.

    In terms of the individual actions, around a quarter of respondents said that attacking people online, intentionally spreading disinformation, threatening or committing violence or damaging public or private property would be acceptable as a way to bring about societal change (between 23-27 percent per answer).

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/24/2025 – 17:20

  • California AG Files First Charges Against Realtor Over Alleged Post-Fire Rent-Gouging
    California AG Files First Charges Against Realtor Over Alleged Post-Fire Rent-Gouging

    Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

    California Attorney General Rob Bonta filed charges Jan 21 against a Los Angeles-area real estate agent in the state’s first notable case of alleged price gouging related to the deadly wildfires that started this month.

    Mike Kobeissi, a real estate agent based in La Canada, faces charges of allegedly raising the rental price of a home in the city on Jan. 11 after thousands of homes were destroyed in a nearby fire, according to the court complaint.

    Kobeissi’s company is located just 7 miles east of Altadena, in Los Angeles County, where the Jan. 7 Eaton Fire killed at least 17 people and destroyed nearly 9,500 homes. The fire continues to burn but was 95 percent contained Thursday after torching 14,021 acres.

    Bonta claims Kobeissi raised the price of a home when a couple tried to rent it.

    The complaint alleges that he violated California Penal Code section 396, which protects residents from price gouging during a state of emergency.

    A representative of Kobeissi’s real estate company called a news report about the charges “false” Thursday, but did not elaborate.

    Newsom declared a state of emergency in Los Angeles and Ventura counties on Jan. 7.

    In an executive order issued Jan. 12, the California governor suspended the existing time limitations under section 396, and extended the price gouging prohibitions under Jan. 7, 2026, for Los Angeles County.

    The attorney general claims a couple tried to rent a home after the governor’s state of emergency order went into effect.

    The couple was allegedly informed that the price increased by 38 percent after they filed an application for the rental, according to Bonta’s office.

    “They decided not to rent the house due to the increase in price,” Bonta’s office announce in a press release.

    The California penal code prohibits raising prices over a 10 percent limit, or no more than 10 percent of the total cost to the seller, plus the customary markup pre-state of emergency.

    The penalty, if found guilty, can range up to one year in jail and a $10,000 maximum fine, according to the attorney general.

    The California Department of Justice has also sent 500 warning letters to hotels and landlords who have been accused of price gouging since the fires began, according to Bonta’s office.

    Bonta’s office is working with Southern California district attorneys, city attorneys, and other law enforcement partners to investigate more criminal investigations into price gouging, he said.

    Homeowner David Marquez, left, holds a metal detector as his father, Juan Pablo Alvarado, right, and a friend look for the remains of gold jewelry and other silver items inside the walls of their multi-generational home in the aftermath of the Eaton Fire, Sunday, Jan. 19, 2025, in Altadena, Calif. AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes

    “As I have said repeatedly, the price gouging must stop,” Bonta said Wednesday.

    “Today, we are making good on our promise to hold price gougers accountable, with more to come.”

    Bonta also urged the public to continue reporting possible incidents of price gouging to local authorities, or to his office.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/24/2025 – 17:00

  • Great Purge By Trump & Corporate America Could Leave "Thousands Of DEI Experts Unemployed"
    Great Purge By Trump & Corporate America Could Leave “Thousands Of DEI Experts Unemployed”

    After Donald Trump’s inauguration celebration on Monday, the newly appointed US President purged over 1,000 Biden appointees from government roles. Some of these firings were due to their alignment with the radical Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion movement. By late Wednesday, Trump had ordered all DEI offices in the federal government to be shuttered.

    The DEI exodus has also continued in corporate America and will only be supercharged this year as the return of meritocracy will reign supreme.

    “The Biden Administration forced illegal and immoral discrimination programs, going by the name “diversity, equity, and inclusion” (DEI), into virtually all aspects of the Federal Government, in areas ranging from airline safety to the military,” an executive order signed by Trump on Monday stated. 

    The order continued, “The public release of these plans demonstrated immense public waste and shameful discrimination,” adding, “That ends today.  Americans deserve a government committed to serving every person with equal dignity and respect, and to expending precious taxpayer resources only on making America great.” 

    The DEI grift in the federal government was nothing more than a power grab movement by far-left Marxist activists who were put into positions of power – not based on meritocracy, but instead on color or gender. And by the way, DEI’s true intention was never to work but to destroy the current system to usher in a socialist reconstruction of America. The woke mind virus was deleted this week.

    But wait a minute, Gun Owners of America showed on Wednesday that at least one DEI head at the ATF was not purged. Instead, the individual was rebranded under a new position. Trump folks should investigate this.  

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    With the DEI tide quickly going out, journalist John LeFevre pointed out there are “now thousands of unemployed DEI ‘experts’…”

    LeFevre continued: 

    They have useless degrees, minimal skills, wildly unrealistic salary expectations and delusionally-high opinions of themselves.

    These people are unemployable.

    They’re toxic, bad energy, team-killers, and walking lawsuits.

    And the NGOs and academia are getting dismantled next… so they can’t even find a home there.

    A couple of them can join KJP at Jennifer Rubin’s new media empire, “run it back” with Kamala 2028 using the same playbook, or grift off of whatever retarded endeavor Steve Jobs’ widow or Reid Hoffman funds next…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    There are no rough estimates on the number of Americans employed in DEI positions across federal, state, and local governments and in corporate America. However, with the tide going out, that number could be in the thousands, if not more. 

    We suspect leadership in the military, government, and companies will now view these DEI activists as major liabilities, as LeFevre noted above. 

    Let’s not forget we pointed this all out in the spring of 2024. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Good luck being employable. Maybe a non-profit funded by Soros will hire… 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Sigh.

    Make Meritocracy Great Again. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/24/2025 – 16:40

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Jan 24

Today’s News 24th January 2025

  • These Restorative Executive Orders Should Not Be Necessary
    These Restorative Executive Orders Should Not Be Necessary

    Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

    You can scour the Founding documents all day and find very little support for government-by-executive-order. It was not supposed to be this way.

    It should not have to be this way. The President under the Constitution has a very limited role.

    That said, most of the many executive orders issued by President Trump are purely restorative, a reaffirmation of core constitutional structures that had been previously ignored or overthrown. Therefore, these are not acts of executive imposition so much as deployments of power in order to give power back to the people.

    In other words, most of the actions are not about the “imperial presidency.” They are about returning power to where it belongs and never should have left, namely to the U.S. Constitution and to the voters in a republican system of government.

    This is why all the chatter about Trump’s use of power (“He’s behaving like a dictator!”) misses the mark. Completely.

    Let’s just consider one that is near and dear to my heart: “Restoring Freedom Speech and Ending Federal Censorship.” It does nothing other than restate the meaning of the very first amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which proclaimed that government cannot interfere with the freedom of speech.

    In recent years, plenty of government agencies have found a way around the law. They would call media outlets and social-media services, and even book retailers, and browbeat them to publish this and not that, take down posts, prioritize this content over that, delete whole groups, and ban accounts. In addition, government agencies constructed a vast web of third-party providers to make lists of approved and unapproved points of view.

    This was pushed to crack down on disinformation and misinformation, as if it was the job of the federal government to decide what is what. Invariably, this was designed to bolster the industrial prospects of a particular industry. The result was a global censorship complex of astounding levels of complexity and reach. It became terrifying for everyone and deeply injurious to careers and reputations.

    These practices have come under fire in a flurry of lawsuits. One court in the case of Murthy v. Missouri ended up with an injunction against federal agencies. That found its way to the Supreme Court. In the hearings, more than half the members of the court simply could not follow the arguments. Some comments even raised questions about the whole idea of free speech itself, as if the concept was somehow new. It was shocking and demoralizing.

    The result of that hearing was to reject the injunction on grounds that the plaintiffs did not have standing, as if the victims of censorship themselves have no real right to redress. Now the case is again tangled up in litigation that will likely last years. Despite tens of thousands of pages of evidence, the court could not somehow find its way toward enforcing the clear law of the land.

    That’s when this executive order comes into play. Someone had to enforce the law against government overreach. That someone is President Trump. His executive order reads as follows:

    “The First Amendment to the United States Constitution, an amendment essential to the success of our Republic, enshrines the right of the American people to speak freely in the public square without Government interference. Over the last 4 years, the previous administration trampled free speech rights by censoring Americans’ speech on online platforms, often by exerting substantial coercive pressure on third parties, such as social media companies, to moderate, deplatform, or otherwise suppress speech that the Federal Government did not approve. Under the guise of combatting ‘misinformation,’ ‘disinformation,’ and ‘malinformation,’ the Federal Government infringed on the constitutionally protected speech rights of American citizens across the United States in a manner that advanced the Government’s preferred narrative about significant matters of public debate. Government censorship of speech is intolerable in a free society.”

    It continues:

    “It is the policy of the United States to: (a) secure the right of the American people to engage in constitutionally protected speech; (b) ensure that no Federal Government officer, employee, or agent engages in or facilitates any conduct that would unconstitutionally abridge the free speech of any American citizen; (c) ensure that no taxpayer resources are used to engage in or facilitate any conduct that would unconstitutionally abridge the free speech of any American citizen; and(d) identify and take appropriate action to correct past misconduct by the Federal Government related to censorship of protected speech.”

    Great so far, so what is to be done?

    “(a) No Federal department, agency, entity, officer, employee, or agent may act or use any Federal resources in a manner contrary to section 2 of this order. (b) The Attorney General, in consultation with the heads of executive departments and agencies, shall investigate the activities of the Federal Government over the last 4 years that are inconsistent with the purposes and policies of this order and prepare a report to be submitted to the President, through the Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy, with recommendations for appropriate remedial actions to be taken based on the findings of the report.”

    There we go! Was that so hard? This is what the ACLU used to believe before they went the other direction to become a nonprofit enforcer of woke ideology.

    Thus is free speech seemingly restored but that is not the end of the story. The plaintiffs should be entitled to a full compensation of all litigation costs, and these should come out of the budgets of the CDC, Department of State, the National Institutes of Health, and any other agency involved in this censorship program.

    Is this order enforceable? One can hope but not be certain. The institutions and money out there favoring censorship are voluminous. It is likely going to require more than a proclamation to make the First Amendment real again. Moreover, much of the prevailing censorship is now deeply embedded in algorithmic structures on Google and YouTube. No human is operating it anymore. It will take human hands to rip out the coding that makes it all possible. And keep in mind that this happens today with no direct state involvement, so it is possible that current censorship operations will continue while being technically in compliance with the order.

    That is to say, this order should have been issued many years ago, since it began much earlier than four years ago. In fact, it was in full operation during the first term of Trump, likely in a way that was unbeknownst to the Trump administration. One has to admire how Trump 2.0 has made a concerted effort here to take charge and really mean it.

    There are plenty of other thrilling executive orders concerning transgenderism, the World Health Organization, the Paris Climate Accord, and much more. The freeing of the January 6th prisoners is especially bold and on point, as is the glorious freeing of Ross Ulbricht.

    In general, what we are seeing here is an exercise of power in order to take power away from the globalists and deep state and give it back to the people.

    This is precisely what the voters wanted, for, in the end, we prefer self-government to tyranny.

    It is tragic that it should require executive orders to restore what should never have been taken from the people in the first place. But that is the world in which we live, and Trump should be commended for seeing what was necessary and doing it.

    *  *  *

    Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/23/2025 – 23:25

  • Portland Church Vows To Protect Illegal Immigrants From Deportation
    Portland Church Vows To Protect Illegal Immigrants From Deportation

    One city not eager to comply with President Trump’s new immigration plans is Portland.

    The city will be actively working to try and prevent its immigrants from deportations, according to a new report from KATU ABC 2. 

    One immigrant who ” came to the United States from El Salvador when he was just a teenager”, Francisco Aguirre, told ABC: “I can’t imagine leaving my kids behind.”

    He added: “I flee the violence there because my life, you know, was in danger, and if I stay, I will get killed. My relatives got killed back in El Salvador, and I did not have any other choice to just run away one day when I could, you know.”

    Portland pastor Mark Knutson has vowed to try and protect Aguirre, calling the Augustana Lutheran Church in Northeast Portland a sanctuary.

    Knutson reflected on the sacredness of sanctuary, saying,“The idea was if ICE were to dare breach this sacred space, this holy grail, and violently drag a man out of this church, with all the cellphones and technology, even back 10 years ago, can you imagine the pictures of a man being dragged?” 

    The report says that the church even has an alarm system—if ICE arrives, the bell will sound.

    Under President Trump, tensions at Augustana Lutheran Church have risen, fueled by his executive order prioritizing deportations of “inadmissible and removable aliens.” Trump, when asked about ICE raids, stated, “I don’t want to say when, but it’s going to happen. It has to happen.”

    Knutson is organizing community action. “You’ll see this church overflowing with leaders from the community, everyday people here to stand in solidarity. That’s going to send a message to this administration that we in Oregon are not going to go for this.”

    For many, deportation can mean tragedy. Aguirre, a congregant, lost his son Moses, who was killed after fleeing to El Salvador out of fear of deportation. “He was playing soccer when they shot him,” Aguirre said.

    The fear of deportation has overwhelmed Portland’s immigrant community. Immigration attorney Vanesa Pancic noted, “I think my office missed 50 phone calls, missed 50 phone calls yesterday. I don’t know how you guys got through my office yesterday.”

    While the timing and scope of deportations remain uncertain, Aguirre remains hopeful. “I dream of becoming a pastor to help unite people through God’s word,” he said.

    In Oregon, nearly 90,000 citizens live with undocumented family members, according to a 2016 report by the American Immigration Council.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/23/2025 – 23:00

  • US Government Back Door FISA Searches Are Unconstitutional: Federal Judge
    US Government Back Door FISA Searches Are Unconstitutional: Federal Judge

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

    The federal government’s method of searching through information incidentally collected on U.S.-based individuals violates the U.S. Constitution’s Fourth Amendment, a federal judge has ruled.

    “To countenance this practice would convert Section 702 into precisely what Defendant has labeled it – a tool for law enforcement to run ‘backdoor searches’ that circumvent the Fourth Amendment,” U.S. District Judge LaShann Dearcy Hall said in the ruling, which was released on Jan. 21.

    Government officials acquired information on the defendant, Agron Hasbajrami, a legal permanent resident who they arrested in 2011 and charged with providing material support to a terrorist organization. The information was gathered under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), which lets authorities spy on people.

    After Hasbajrami pleaded guilty, authorities disclosed that some of the evidence they used in the case was the fruit of information they obtained without a warrant under a FISA supplement called Section 207, which enables authorities to conduct surveillance on non-U.S. persons reasonably believed to be outside the United States.

    The authorities had gathered some evidence on Hasbajrami as they targeted non-Americans believed to be located outside the country and other communications from Hasbajrami because, they said, they at one point mistakenly thought he was a non-U.S. person.

    Hasbajrami moved to suppress the evidence. After the motion was denied, he pleaded guilty on the condition he be allowed to appeal the denial.

    A federal appeals court in 2019 largely upheld the denial, finding that the government’s incidental collection of information on Hasbajrami as they carried out surveillance was lawful because the surveillance was lawful in the first place. The appeals court also remanded back to the district court the examination of whether the government’s so-called back door searches of the Section 702 database violated the Constitution.

    Hall, in the new decision, concluded they did. While the government’s collection of the evidence was lawful, that doesn’t automatically mean the subsequent database searches were, she said.

    “In other words, simply acquiring defendant’s communications under Section 702, albeit lawfully, did not, in and of itself, permit the government to later query the retained information,” Hall wrote.

    “To hold otherwise would effectively allow law enforcement to amass a repository of communications under Section 702—including those of U.S. persons—that can later be searched on demand without limitation. But this approach undermines the purpose of the warrant requirement, which is ’to interpose a ‘neutral and detached magistrate’ between the citizen and ’the officer engaged in the often competitive enterprise of ferreting out crime,’” Hall added.

    The judge denied the remaining portion of Hasbarjami’s motion, which asked for the government to hand over the evidence it collected.

    A U.S. Department of Justice spokesperson declined to comment.

    An attorney for Hasbarjami did not respond to a request for comment.

    Government watchdogs hailed the ruling.

    “This is a major constitutional ruling on one of the most abused provisions of FISA,” Patrick Toomey, deputy director of the American Civil Liberties Union’s National Security Project, said in a statement.

    “In light of this ruling, we ask Congress to uphold its responsibility to protect civil rights and civil liberties by refusing to renew Section 702 absent a number of necessary reforms, including an official warrant requirement for querying US persons data and increased transparency,” Andrew Crocker and Matthew Guariglia, with the Electronic Frontier Foundation, added.

    President Donald Trump’s nominee for CIA director, John Ratcliffe, said during his recent confirmation hearing that Section 702 provides an “indispensable national security tool” and that he opposed requiring warrants for queries of the database.

    Former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard from Hawaii, whom Trump selected as his national security adviser, also says she supports Section 702.

    Section 702 has been repeatedly reauthorized by Congress, most recently in 2024.

    Section 702 is set to expire on April 15, 2026.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/23/2025 – 22:35

  • FBI Seeking Public's Help In Identifying "Asian Female" Bank Robber In Seattle
    FBI Seeking Public’s Help In Identifying “Asian Female” Bank Robber In Seattle

    Described as an “Asian female” in her 20s, the FBI and Seattle Police are seeking help identifying a serial bank robber linked to five Seattle heists between June 28, 2024, and January 13, 2025.

    FBI spokesperson Steve Bernd noted, “Once we start seeing someone do multiple jobs or violent bank robberies, it’s something the bureau will put more priority to.”

    The FBI identified the targeted banks as Wells Fargo on Queen Anne (6/28), US Bank on NE 45th (9/7), US Bank on NE 63rd (10/31), Key Bank on Holman Road (11/21), and US Bank on Edmunds (1/13), according to KOMO News.

    KOMO News reports that the suspect is described as an Asian woman, 18-25 years old, 5’3″ to 5’5″, often wearing a hat and facemask. She typically handed tellers a note demanding money during the robberies. 

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    Bernd said: “She’s using notes, what we call a note job, but the last one, she actually displayed a weapon. She didn’t point it at the teller, but she indicated that she had one, so that’s concerning to us because she hadn’t done that before.” 

    “If that’s indicative of what she’s willing to do if the teller isn’t doing what she’s asking, that’s alarming,” he continued. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/23/2025 – 22:10

  • Trump Signs Executive Order Releasing Additional JFK Assassination Files
    Trump Signs Executive Order Releasing Additional JFK Assassination Files

    Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times,

    President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday, releasing additional government files associated with the assassinations of former President John F. Kennedy (JFK), former Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy (RFK), and Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.

    Trump promised at his pre-inauguration rally in Washington on Jan. 19 that he would release the remaining records on the assassinations of JFK, RFK, and King in the coming days.

    “That’s a big one,” Trump said while signing the order at the Oval Office.

    “A lot of people have been waiting for this for years, for decades. And everything will be revealed.”

    The FBI accused Lee Harvey Oswald, a former U.S. Marine who had defected to the Soviet Union for a period after embracing Marxism, of assassinating JFK in 1963.

    Nightclub owner Jack Ruby shot and killed Oswald as authorities were moving him from Dallas police headquarters to the county jail just two days after the assassination, stirring decades of speculation and conspiracy theories.

    JFK’s assassination coincided with a period of increasing mistrust in the federal government, and many Americans still believe Oswald was part of a larger plot to kill the president.

    Gallup’s most recent poll, conducted in October 2023, found that 65 percent of U.S. adults reject the theory that a lone gunman killed JFK.

    Trump and former President Joe Biden previously released thousands of documents related to JFK’s death.

    Roughly 99 percent of the assassination files have been released as of 2023, according to the National Archives.

    However, Biden had agreed to delay the disclosure of additional records, stating the necessity of protecting “against identifiable harms to the military defense, intelligence operations, law enforcement, and the conduct of foreign relations that are of such gravity that they outweigh the public interest in disclosure.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/23/2025 – 21:45

  • Egg Prices Catapult Into 'Blue-Sky Breakout' As Bird Flu Sparks Worsening Shortage
    Egg Prices Catapult Into ‘Blue-Sky Breakout’ As Bird Flu Sparks Worsening Shortage

    An ongoing and devastating avian influenza outbreak has severely dented the nation’s egg-producing hen population, driving wholesale prices into record-high territory and far surpassing the price explosion seen a few years ago when the bird flu first emerged. This is an alarming trend, and egg prices at the supermarket will likely rise further in the weeks and months ahead.

    The latest wholesale data from Urner Barry shows that the price for a dozen eggs has jumped to a record high of $5.4, exceeding the previous peak of $4.65 set in December 2022. Rising wholesale prices are expected to continue pressuring supermarket prices higher.

    According to the USDA’s bird flu dashboard, 15.5 million birds across the Lower 48 have been infected by avian influenza over the last 30 days.

    About 20 million egg-laying hens died in the fourth quarter of 2024 because of the escalating health crisis, denting the nation’s egg-laying population. 

    “Unlike in past years, in 2024, all major production systems experienced significant losses, including conventional caged, cage-free, and certified organic types,” USDA wrote in a report earlier this month. 

    The end result is this: 

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    Readers may want to consider building or purchasing chicken coops to secure their own egg supply, as shortages are expected to persist. Additionally, a growing trend among some Americans involves sourcing clean food from mom-and-pop farms or utilizing their own land for food production. It may be time for folks to shift away from toxic food supply chains controlled by mega-corporations. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/23/2025 – 21:20

  • Battle Lines Drawn On Trump's Border Crackdown
    Battle Lines Drawn On Trump’s Border Crackdown

    Authored by Susan Crabtree via RealClearPolitics,

    President Trump’s decision to launch his second term by declaring a national emergency at the U.S. border triggered an avalanche of opposition from Democratic governors, liberal members of Congress, and pro-migrant organizations vowing to challenge the constitutionality of his sweeping executive actions.

    In Monday’s inaugural address, Trump pledged that “all illegal entry will immediately be halted.” The national emergency declaration includes provisions allowing for the deployment of additional military resources to finish the border wall, among other efforts.

    “We will have the military at the southern border, but there are other elements of the United States government that will be working throughout the country,” an incoming White House official said during a Monday morning call with reporters.

    The executive action targeting children of illegal immigrants, along with a raft of border-related orders Trump signed to overhaul U.S. immigration and border security, attracted condemnation from Pope Francis, as well a host of left-leaning groups.  

    In an interview Sunday on Italian television, Francis labeled the mass deportation of illegal immigrants “a calamity,” remarks signaling a return to the friction between the pontiff and Trump that marked the president’s first term in the White House.

    “This, if it’s true, will be a disgrace, because it will make poor unfortunates who have nothing foot the bill for [global] imbalances,” the pope said. “That doesn’t work. You don’t solve things that way. You just don’t.”

    Francis, who has made illegal immigrant and refugee rights a top priority of his papacy, is the most prominent voice pushing back against Trump’s sweeping changes to U.S. immigration policy to implement mass deportations.

    Other self-anointed U.S. leaders of the Trump resistance also denounced the stricter immigration policies and pledged not to follow the new federal birthright law while fighting it in court.

    “That’s unconstitutional. We will not follow an unconstitutional order,” Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, who is eyeing a 2028 presidential run, told reporters Monday. Pritzker blasted Trump’s deportation plans, which reportedly could begin in cities across the country, including Chicago, as early as Tuesday.

    “They have not communicated with us. I’m reading the same things you are,” Pritzker continued. “This is indicative of what you’re going to see of the Trump administration for the next four years. It’s chaos.”

    Refugees International, a nonprofit advocacy organization, deemed Trump’s first moves to tighten immigration laws “extreme” and “an attempt to reverse America’s proud legacy and tradition of providing refuge to people forced to flee their homes.”

    “Make no mistake, these orders are not just about stopping irregular migration – they also target long-standing legal migration pathways in ways that will endanger vulnerable people, undermine border security, and harm the U.S. economy,” the group said in a statement.

    California Gov. Gavin Newsom, another presumed 2028 presidential contender, declared himself the leader of the Trump resistance just days after the president’s victory. On Monday, however, he was far more restrained. After weeks of searing criticism over state and local officials’ response to the Los Angeles wildfires, Newsom is walking a careful line with federal disaster aid on the line and with Trump set to visit the state on Friday.

    Newsom, in a post on X.com, stressed the need to find “common ground” and efforts to reach “shared goals.”

    “Where our shared principles are aligned, my administration stands ready to work with the Trump-Vance administration to deliver solutions and serve the nearly 40 million Californians we jointly represent,” he wrote.

    Undeterred by the angry opposition, Tom Homan, Trump’s incoming “border czar,” Monday defended Trump’s crackdown. Homan estimated that more than 10 million illegal immigrants have flooded into the country during the Biden administration and argued that Biden and outgoing U.S. officials have “blood on their hands” for the death of 22-year-old nursing student Laken Riley and other U.S. citizens slain by immigrants living in the U.S. illegally.

    Deportation raids targeting criminals will begin in major cities across the country Tuesday, Homan said, although he noted that the administration is reconsidering details of a planned Chicago ICE raid after a leak to the press about the operation occurred.

    Earlier in the day, the Senate passed the Laken Riley Act on a bipartisan vote, with 12 Democrats joining Republicans to vote for the bill mandating the detention of more illegal immigrants charged with crimes. The measure now heads to the House, which passed a similar bill last month.

    Gallego co-sponsored the Laken Riley bill but opposes ending birthright citizenship, another idea broached during the campaign and pressed by Trump on his first day in office.

    “We need to address our broken immigration system and secure the border,” Gallego wrote on X.com, “But executive actions like this run contrary to the ideals of what makes our country great, and I will do all I can to fight this anti-American executive order.”

    The battles lines over Trump’s expected revocation of birthright citizenship came into focus months ago. The immigration executive actions are a combination of campaign promises and policy ideas from the first term that never materialized.

    Late Monday night, just hours after Trump signed the executive order ending birthright citizenship, the American Civil Liberties Union and several other immigration rights groups sued, accusing the administration of flouting the Constitution, congressional intent and longstanding Supreme Court precedent.

    “Denying citizenship to U.S. born children is not only unconstitutional – it’s also a reckless and ruthless repudiation of American values,” Anthony Romero, executive director of the ACLU, said in a statement. “Birthright citizenship is part of what makes the United States the strong and dynamic nation that it is. This order seeks to repeat one of the gravest errors in American history, by creating a permanent subclass of people born in the U.S. who are denied full rights as Americans.”

    The ACLU and the other groups are suing on the basis that ending the citizenship of children born to illegal immigrations violates the Fourteenth Amendment, which states that “all persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States.”

    “We will not let this attack on newborns and future generations of Americans go unchallenged,” Romero added. “The Trump administration’s overreach is so egregious that we are confident we will ultimately prevail.”

    The incoming administration on Monday also shut down CBP One, an app that helped illegal immigrants and asylum seekers enter the United States.

    House Homeland Security Committee chairman Mark Green applauded the flurry of immigration restrictions Trump imposed on his first day in office, deeming them a “restoration of American sovereignty at our borders.”

    “We’re going to take the handcuffs [off ICE] that were placed on them by the Biden administration, and we’re going to put them on the bad guys,” Homan added during an appearance on Fox News Monday night.

    Susan Crabtree is RealClearPolitics’ national political correspondent.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/23/2025 – 20:55

  • Bulk Carrier Paralyzed On Lake Erie As Ice Coverage Exceeds 50-Year Trend
    Bulk Carrier Paralyzed On Lake Erie As Ice Coverage Exceeds 50-Year Trend

    Climate misinformation and disinformation, relentlessly pushed by far-left corporate media outlets, had their readership believing they were on the brink of perishing on a fiery planet—blaming everything from Taylor Swift’s private jet travels to cow farts in late 2024. 

    Then came ‘Old Man Winter,’ unleashing a polar vortex across the eastern half of the US, bringing record-low temperatures in some regions. Multiple winter storms traversed the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, including an incredibly rare snowstorm that battered New Orleans (bordering Gulf of America waters) that nearly surpassed a snowstorm last seen 130 years ago. 

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    The cold blast (or what has felt like a ‘mini ice age’ this month) produced by the polar vortex does not align with the corporate media’s and the World Economic Forum’s global warming doom narrative. This may explain why ‘green’ politicians and unelected officials, along with MSM, have somewhat ignored the reality of a cold blast freezing the US to the core. 

    These are not the headlines one would expect to see if the planet was actually on fire: 

    The latest cold weather emergency comes from the Great Lakes region. X users citing ship tracking data indicate that at least one bulk carrier is stranded on Lake Erie due to rapidly expanding ice coverage by subzero temperatures. 

    Meteorologist Tom Niziol wrote on X, “Lake Erie over 80% ice-covered, freighter Manitoulan is stuck in the ice just outside Buffalo Harbor.”

    “Word is they will sit there until an icebreaker gets to them tomorrow,” Niziol said. 

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    Another X user posted drone footage of Manitoulin stuck on Lake Erie.

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    And another. 

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    NOAA ice cover data from the Great Lakes Ice Tracker shows that Lake Erie’s current ice coverage is 80%, well above the 50-year trend of 46% for this time of year. 

    For the Great Lakes, the Great Lakes Ice Tracker shows ice coverage at 25%, which is in line with 50-year trends for this time of year. 

    The ice emergency unfolding on Lake Erie that has paralyzed some marine shipping lanes is not a headline that one would see if MSM was actually right about their global warming propaganda. No wonder trust in MSM has collapsed to record-low levels.  

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/23/2025 – 20:30

  • Trump Brings Stellantis Jobs To Illinois… Pritzker Takes Credit
    Trump Brings Stellantis Jobs To Illinois… Pritzker Takes Credit

    Authored by Mark Glennon via Wirepoints.org,

    Illinois had some rare, good news yesterday.

    Stellantis, the Big 3 auto maker, announced it will be investing $1.2 billion in its Belvidere assembly plant and bringing back about 1,500 jobs there.

    You’ll never know who really got it done if you listen to Illinois’ leadership.

    It was a  “dramatic turnabout,” as the Detroit Free Press put it.

    As you may remember, Gov. JB Pritzker announced to much fanfare in October 2023 that the Stellantis facility in Belvidere, idled with layoffs just before the previous Christmas, would be reopened. But no deal was ever signed and, last year, Stellantis indefinitely postponed any Belividere expansion, blaming “market conditions.”

    But that was before Trump, his tariff threats and four days of meetings last week between Stellantis, Trump and his team.

    Here is a headline on one of many stories linking yesterday’s good news about more jobs in Illinois to Trump’s pressure on Stellantis:

    “Stellantis responds to Trump’s tariff threat, will restart Illinois plant and build new Durango in Detroit.”

    And from the Wall Street Journal:

    John Elkann, chairman of Jeep-maker Stellantis, wasted no time reassuring President Trump of the global automaker’s commitment to U.S. manufacturing. The scion of Italy’s famous Agnelli family met with Trump last week to emphasize the company’s support for American workers.

    On Wednesday, following the meeting, Stellantis reaffirmed plans to reopen a now-idled factory in Illinois to make a new midsize truck, according to an internal memo reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

    Pritzker, however, claims full credit for himself and his friends.

    Not a word even acknowledging Trump’s role.

    From Pritzker’s statement yesterday about Stellantis’ new announcement:

    This would not be possible without proactive collaboration and coordination between the State of Illinois, Stellantis, UAW, the Biden-Harris Administration, and our champions in Congress, including Senator Durbin, Senator Duckworth, Representative Bill Foster, and Representative Eric Sorensen,” said Governor JB Pritzker.

    “My administration has worked tirelessly with our partners to secure this investment and we are excited to see it come to fruition.

    Illinois Senator’s Duckworth and Durbin were no better.

    Their joint statement likewise doesn’t mention Trump.

    One big loose end is that we still don’t know how much state money Illinois initially offered Stellantis as part of the initial deal that fell apart. Pritzker and the state never said and nobody in the media ever pressed him for an answer. Some or all of that money is presumably still on the table. In any event, that does not mean Trump’s role wasn’t essential to Stellantis’ new committment.

    Why does Pritzker figure he can get away with deceit and ingratitude so extreme?

    Because the Illinois press never calls him out on such things.

    He knows they won’t lay a hand on him.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/23/2025 – 20:05

  • Thacker Dismantles WSJ Propaganda Over Gain-Of-Function Research
    Thacker Dismantles WSJ Propaganda Over Gain-Of-Function Research

    The Wall Street Journal is playing sleight of hand over an (allegedly) upcoming Trump executive order that would halt federal funding for gain-of-function (GoF) research.

    For starters, they frame opposition to GoF as partisan, and suggest that concerns over it are recent. Journalist Paul Thacker of The Disinformation Chronicle breaks it down.

    For example, the WSJ writes “The gain-of-function studies had been a staple of research into viruses, but became an object of controversy and criticism during the pandemic crisis. Republicans in Congress criticized the studies.”

    Wrong: GoF has been under scrutiny for more than a decade. In fact, the Obama Administration banned it in 2014, which is why Dr. Anthony Fauci offshored it to Wuhan, China via EcoHealth Alliance.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsNext, the Journal suggests that only “some Republicans” who think GoF caused Covid-19, when in fact a majority of Americans think that’s the case, including 53% of Democrats.

    The article also cites scientists with huge conflicts of interest, and that “Many scientists and public-health officials have said there isn’t any public evidence that an experiment at the Wuhan lab could have created the virus that caused the pandemic.”

    Wrong: The government was concerned at the highest levels that the virus started in a lab.

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    And about those conflicts of interest…

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    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/23/2025 – 19:40

  • Meet The 'Crunchy' Moms Who Support RFK Jr. As Health Secretary
    Meet The ‘Crunchy’ Moms Who Support RFK Jr. As Health Secretary

    Authored by Jeff Louderback via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A term once reserved for granola-eating hippies, “crunchy” moms has evolved into a label for women who embrace a more natural lifestyle for their families.

    Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock, Courtesy of Lyndsey Mulherin, Courtesy of Kristen Taylor, Courtesy of Krista Cobb, Jeff Louderback/The Epoch Times, Courtesy of Samantha Adams

    These are women who favor herbal treatments over physician-prescribed and over-the-counter medications, cooking with butter or beef tallow instead of seed oils, examining food labels at the grocery store, and exercising caution about vaccinating their children.

    When Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ran for president—first as a Democrat and then as an independent—these moms were among his most vocal supporters.

    Fighting chronic disease, improving children’s health, and addressing corporate influence on government agencies were vital parts of Kennedy’s campaign platform.

    Ultimately, Kennedy suspended his presidential campaign and backed the Trump ticket in August 2024.

    Since then, Kennedy has launched his Make America Healthy Again campaign, with the intention to curtail what he calls America’s chronic disease epidemic. He is seeking to have toxic chemicals from the nation’s food supply removed and he wants to address what he has branded the corporate capture of federal health agencies, among other objectives.

    In November, President-elect Donald Trump nominated Kennedy to serve as secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS), and the latter promptly pledged to make sweeping changes to its subsidiary agencies including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

    Several moms told The Epoch Times they are ecstatic about the possibility of Kennedy as HHS secretary, pending Senate confirmation.

    “With RFK Jr., we have a champion in our corner,” Lyndsey Mulherin told The Epoch Times.

    A homesteader in northwest Ohio, Mulherin has devoted her life to being a stay-at-home mom caring for her three children, including her middle son, Jack, who was diagnosed with autism at age 2. She blames a vaccine.

    “Everything we put in or on our body affects our health. In its simplest form, that is what crunchy moms are all about,” Mulherin said.

    “People have questioned our decisions to not vaccinate our [other] kids, and avoid certain foods and cleaning products among other items we use in everyday life.

    “Now, because of Kennedy’s platform, Trump nominating Kennedy, and what Kennedy plans to do, people are starting to learn what we learned a long time ago,” Mulherin said.

    Lyndsey Mulherin. Courtesy of Lyndsey Mulherin

    Kristen Taylor is a South Carolina mom who embraces a holistic lifestyle. She wasn’t always that way.

    “There was a time I believed and trusted conventional doctors. I thought they knew everything about health. I believed what the media told us about health,” she said.

    “I thought vaccines were necessary and getting my children vaccinated was a sign I was a good mother. Simply put, I was indoctrinated.”

    Taylor was motivated to dig deeper into products when she investigated the ingredients of a self-tanning wipe she used and found they included parabens, which have been linked to causing cancer.

    “I started reading the ingredients of every single product our family was putting on our skin and if I saw an even somewhat questionable ingredient, I trashed that product. I woke up.”

    A fitness enthusiast, Taylor has a Master’s degree and taught in public school before she decided to become a stay-at-home mom and a homeschool teacher.

    “The collaboration between Trump and RFK Jr. gives me hope that I haven’t felt in a long time. Those of us who are crunchy, holistic, natural—whatever you want to call it—believe in RFK Jr. because he is one of us and he didn’t dismiss us,” Taylor told The Epoch Times.

    “He takes the time to deeply learn about a topic, and if he finds reason to stand up for it, he does it loud and clear. That’s why so many of us back him, regardless of political beliefs, because he genuinely cares and is committed to making positive change,” she said.

    “That’s been lacking in our health care agencies for a long time,” she added.

    Kristen Taylor is a South Carolina mother and fitness enthusiast who is excited about Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s nomination as Health and Human Services secretary. Courtesy of Kristen Taylor

    Krista Cobb, a 41-year-old mother of three, grew up in the hills of southeastern Kentucky where her grandparents taught her all about canning, gardening, and hunting.

    After moving to an urban area in the Dayton, Ohio, area and living there for a few decades, she grew tired of the “concrete jungle” and bought a small property in rural western Ohio last year.

    Since then, she has transformed the land into a homestead with chickens, goats, ducks, and gardens.

    “I wanted to get back to my roots,” Cobb told The Epoch Times.

    An ardent Trump supporter, Cobb told The Epoch Times she is “ecstatic” that Kennedy might be days away from becoming HHS secretary.

    “It’s long overdue for vaccine schedules to be addressed, for toxins to be removed from our food, and for government health agencies to be managed by people who have no ties to Big Pharma and Big Ag,” Cobb said.

    “I believe that Kennedy will do what he says he’s going to do, and we as a country will be better off.

    “It will take some time. I don’t think it will all happen overnight, but just knowing he will be in a position to make those changes is a great feeling.”

    Krista Cobb, a self-described “crunchy mom,” has goats, chickens, and ducks on her western Ohio homestead. Courtsey of Krista Cobb

    Mulherin said her son, Jack, developed autism when he was 2. She stopped all vaccinations, eliminated all processed foods and artificial dyes, went to a chiropractor instead of a pediatrician, and took him to occupational and speech therapy.

    Read the rest here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/23/2025 – 19:15

  • From Idlib To Davos: Al-Qaeda Linked Syrian Official On Mainstage At WEF
    From Idlib To Davos: Al-Qaeda Linked Syrian Official On Mainstage At WEF

    A US-designated terrorist group still remains the current de facto ruling entity in Damascus and over Syria. But for the West, all that matters is that al-Qaeda linked Jolani is not Assad. A decade-plus long proxy war in pursuit of regime change finally overthrew the secular Baath government early last month, and resulted in the hardline Islamists of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) controlling most of the country.

    The West appears to be fully embracing the new rulers which we previously referred to as al-Qaeda in suits. This week we have been treated to the spectacle of a HTS representative speaking on the main stage at Davos. He’s come a long way from Idlib and its black flags… straight to the red carpet jet-setting champaign-sipping insider atmosphere of world elites.

    During the 55th annual WEF meeting in Davos, Switzerland, January 22, 2025. via Reuters

    Syria’s new HTS-appointed Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan Al-Shaibani told the World Economic Forum on Wednesday that Saudi Arabia is now the exemplar for Syria to follow.

    “Where do we see inspiration for the new Syria? We have the Vision 2030 of Saudi Arabia,” Al-Shaibani said during a conversation with former UK prime minister Tony Blair.

    “We need Syria to be a place of peace, to be a place of development, a place free of war,” the top HTS diplomat added.

    On top of the irony of an AQ-linked official being invited to Davos (and merely within less than two months after HTS took power), there’s the added irony that Tony Blair – one of Bush’s key allies who pushed the 2003 invasion of Iraq – was hosting the Davos main stage discussion with Al-Shaibani.

    Former leaders like Blair, in overthrowing Saddam Hussein, are responsible for having overseen the sectarian and Islamist nightmare which gripped Iraq and the region in the aftermath. The rise of ISIS would not have been possible if it weren’t for the US/UK ‘shock and awe’ regime change operation, for example. Later, the West and Gulf states funded the Syrian insurgency, during which time Al-Qaeda in Iraq jihadists poured across the border into Syria. HTS was born out of this West-backed anti-Assad jihad (it was known as Nusra Front in the beginning).

    But of course, the Davos elites are embracing it all: war crimes and jihad. 

    Meanwhile, in Syria HTS has allowed ISIS-linked foreign fighters to intimidate the population with impunity. Alawites, Druze, and Christians live in fear as sectarian-driven killings are on the rise in the “liberated Syria” – especially in the Homs, Latakia, and coastal and countryside regions.

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    Did Blair extract from Shaibani a firm commitment to protect Syria’s Christians and uphold secularism for Syria at Davos? Of course not.

    The future looks bleak as Jolani has pledged eventual implementation of Sharia law. Already there have been widespread reports of alcohol stores being smashed, women forced to wear the Islamic veil, and imposed separation of the sexes in many public places. But the WEF has enthusiastically greeted this new Syriaistan. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/23/2025 – 18:50

  • Trump MemeCoins Set To Be Sued… But To What End?
    Trump MemeCoins Set To Be Sued… But To What End?

    Authored by Ailsa Sherrington via CoinTelegraph.com,

    Just days before US President Donald Trump’s inauguration, the crypto industry was taken relatively by surprise with the launch of Official Trump (TRUMP), which was swiftly followed by Official Melania (MELANIA) — two memecoins launched by the first family that have pumped and yo-yoed in the days that followed.

    ​​

    The president’s memecoin hit a peak of $72 on Jan. 19, then dipped to $44 on Jan. 20 when MELANIA launched. The coin briefly recovered while the president was sworn into office and has since hovered around the $40 mark. At the time of writing, the president’s memecoin is $37 — down 49% from its peak.

    If speculation is to be believed, more official memecoins by the Trump family are on the way. Though touted as “memecoins,” their significance is unprecedented.

    It was difficult to imagine an incoming American president launching his own memecoin before Jan. 18. Now, it’s hard to picture TRUMP and other tokens not playing a pivotal role in the US political sphere.

    As crypto lawyer Preston Byrne wrote in a blog post, “Crypto is going to be a bigger political football than it’s ever been. Everyone who cares about politics is going to care about it, with no exceptions.”

    This includes Democrats and disgruntled investors, who, according to Byrne, are 100% likely to sue the project within two months.

    Is TRUMP even illegal?

    James Thurber, founder and former director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies, told the Guardian that Trump is blatantly profiting from his own pro-crypto agenda.

    “There are shameful and major conflicts of interest with respect to his family business benefiting from his cryptocurrency policies,” Thurber said. 

    Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, told Cointelegraph that TRUMP has “drawn new investors into the space.” But new audiences aren’t necessarily aware of what makes a sound investment. The launch of TRUMP and MELANIA has predictably made winners and losers, with some shedding millions of dollars as prices slumped.

    Nearly 570,000 wallets have made a loss on TRUMP, compared to nearly 330,000 that made a profit. Source: 0xning

    Byrne believes these lost investments will inevitably lead to litigation. But what is the legal basis?

    “To my knowledge, no court in the United States has determined that memecoins are explicitly legal,” crypto lawyer Aaron Brogan told Cointelegraph.

    That said, they have historically been difficult to prosecute. Brogan explained that memecoins may not be classified as securities under the Howey test.

    “This is because they are basically inert. They don’t do anything and are not tied to any project with a goal of developing useful applications. They just sit onchain, and people buy them for the memes.”

    This is likely why the Securities and Exchange Commission largely avoided memecoins during its Gary Gensler era, instead opting for comparatively “easier” targets like XRP and SOL.

    “But regardless of why, launching a memecoin was less risky over the last four years than developing a bona fide project in cryptocurrency, which is probably the reason they have proliferated,” Brogan said.

    So, memecoins exist in a sort of litigation vacuum, making it the best way for the Trump family to launch a token when all eyes were firmly on them. However, these memecoins are tied to arguably the most important people in the United States — so whether the intent or not, the value of TRUMP and MELANIA will likely serve as a litmus test of public sentiment.

    As Byrne wrote:

    “Trump Coin will now be tracked on CNBC financial shows, in newspapers, the price will be a reflection of the underlying tone of American society and the American project.”

    Crypto lawyer Josh Lawler told Cointelegraph that the question is whether this should immediately place TRUMP and MELANIA into a different, regulated category.

    “The unresolved and difficult question is whether the fact that a large segment of the global population is primed to turn this ‘consumer product’ into a major capital asset should automatically put it into a regulated category even though there is no ‘official’ communication of ongoing investment value,” he told Cointelegraph. 

    “As of this moment in time, there is no law that would require that treatment.”

    Democrats likely to sue anyway

    Trump and his team of lawyers have clearly prepared for attacks from Democrats or others keen to see him bleed over these memecoins.

    The terms of service on the TRUMP memecoin’s official website state that TRUMP is not intended to be, in any way, “an investment opportunity, investment contract, or security of any type.”

    Lawler agrees that “an early assessment indicates that TRUMP is carefully crafted to avoid literal violation of laws including the Securities Act or the Foreign Emoluments Clause of the United States Constitution.”

    And it is “absolutely unthinkable” that Trump would face legal threats from the federal government during his term, Brogan stated.

    However, Byrne says that this won’t stop Democrats or certain investors from filing, say, a civil lawsuit. In fact, he’s banking on it.

    The TRUMP terms include a class-action waiver and a clause requiring any litigation to be handled in arbitration (out of court), which serve to protect the project from civil lawsuits. Byrne wrote:

    “This might make it tough for initial purchasers to bring a suit, but it’ll be easier for holders of tokens on secondary sales to argue that there’s no contractual privity between them and the project and so these terms shouldn’t apply.”

    According to the crypto lawyer, there’s a 100% chance of a civil lawsuit within two months and a 90% chance of one filed in the next two weeks.

    “I am absolutely certain this will happen. Someone will lose money, some lawyer will come up with a theory and file.”

    Brogan agrees, telling Cointelegraph:

    “Frankly, I think the torrent of legal filings is about to make Noah’s great flood look like a sun shower.”

    What’s the worst that could happen?

    As a man who became a convicted felon and then the 47th president of the US — in that order — it’s worth asking what, if anything, litigation will do to Trump. It may be difficult to legally pursue the leader of the “free world,” but it is not impossible.

    “In Clinton v. Jones, the Supreme Court ruled that presidents are subject to suit for actions they took before becoming president,” Brogan explained.

    “So, it is possible that some of these lawsuits will get through.”

    The issue is that Trump has developed Kevlar-grade skin. Some civil lawsuits, perhaps a few TRUMP associates hounded by state attorneys general… will these attempts lead to any real form of enforcement? Of protection for investors?

    “He’s cultivated a coalition of supporters who are not interested in policing traditional mores of public conduct,” Brogan argued, “and the dividend from that effort is that he can do whatever he wants.”

    “Trump has immanentized the crypto revolution,” Byrne concluded in his blog post. “We will each remember this day until we die, because we will be dealing with the consequences of this for the rest of our lives.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/23/2025 – 18:25

  • RINO Defections Fail To Derail Hegseth As Senate Confirmation Advances
    RINO Defections Fail To Derail Hegseth As Senate Confirmation Advances

    Via Headline USA,

    The Senate advanced the nomination of Pete Hegseth as President Donald Trump’s defense secretary Thursday on a largely party-line vote, despite party-line opposition from Democrats and defections from two notorious RINOs who – like most in the Senate – voted in favor of confirming grossly incompetent Biden Defense secretary Lloyd Austin.

    Sens. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine predictably broke rank with the Republican majority to elevate the former Fox News star, distinguished military veteran, accomplished author and Harvard graduate.

    The vote was 51-49, with a final vote on confirmation expected Friday.

    Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., implored his colleagues to think seriously, “Is this the best man we have to lead the greatest military in the world?”

    In what has become a standard part of the Democrat playbook, Hegseth has been subjected to salacious personal smear attacks, accusing him of heavy drinking and infidelity—both of which Democrats routinely engage in with impunity and which would not impugn his competence as a military leader if true. Hegseth has denied many of the allegations.

    Mukowksi, in a lengthy statement, said that his behaviors “starkly contrast” with what is expected of the U.S. military. She also noted his past statements that women should not fill military combat roles.

    “I remain concerned about the message that confirming Mr. Hegseth sends to women currently serving and those aspiring to join,” Murkowski wrote on social media.

    Murkowski said behavior that Hegseth has acknowledged, “including infidelity on multiple occasions,” shows a lack of judgment.

    “These behaviors starkly contrast the values and discipline expected of service members,” she said.

    “Above all, I believe that character is the defining trait required of the Secretary of Defense, and must be prioritized without compromise,” she said.

    Trump is standing by Hegseth, and the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee has dismissed the claims as factually inaccurate.

    It will take a simple majority senators to confirm Hegseth’s confirmation. Most Republicans, who hold a 53-seat majority in the chamber, have signaled they will back the nominee, though Vice President JD Vance could be called in to break a tie vote.

    “I am ironclad in my assessment that the nominee, Mr. Hegseth, is prepared to be the next secretary of defense,” the chairman, Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., said in a statement on the eve of voting. “The Senate needs to confirm this nominee as fast as possible.”

    Wicker said he had been briefed a third time on the FBI background investigation into Hegseth. He said “the allegations unfairly impugning his character do not pass scrutiny.”

    A new president’s national security nominees are often the first to be lined up for confirmation, to ensure U.S. safety at home and abroad. Already the Senate has overwhelmingly confirmed Marco Rubio as secretary of State in a unanimous vote, and it was on track to confirm John Ratcliffe as CIA director later Thursday.

    During a fiery confirmation hearing, Hegseth swatted away allegations of wrongdoing one by one—dismissing them as “smears”—as he displayed his military credentials and vowed to bring “warrior culture” to the top Pentagon post.

    Among the allegations levied against Hegseth is a claim that he sexually assaulted a woman at a Republican conference in California, which he has maintained was a consensual encounter.

    A new claim emerged this week in an affidavit from a former sister-in-law who said Hegseth was abusive to his second wife to the point that she feared for her safety. Hegseth has denied the allegation. In divorce proceedings, neither Hegseth nor the woman claimed to be a victim of domestic abuse.

    Schumer said Thursday that Hegseth was unqualified for the job because of his personal behavior, including drinking, and his lack of experience.

    “One of the kindest words that might be used to describe Mr. Hegseth is erratic, and that’s a term you don’t want at DOD,” Schumer said.

    “He has a clear problem of judgment.”

    A Princeton- and Harvard-educated former combat veteran, Hegseth went on to make a career at Fox News, where he hosted a weekend show. Trump tapped him as the defense secretary to lead an organization with nearly 2.1 million service members, about 780,000 civilians and a budget of $850 billion.

    Hegseth has promised not to drink on the job if confirmed.

    Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, herself a combat veteran and sexual assault survivor, has signaled her backing after initially opposing the choice. It is believed that Ernst herself may have been engaged in a soft campaign for the spot but that intra-party pressure and backlash led her to reconsider.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/23/2025 – 17:40

  • Washington State Seeking To Legalize Homeless Encampments
    Washington State Seeking To Legalize Homeless Encampments

    Washington Democrats have introduced House Bill 1380, sponsored by Rep. Mia Gregerson (D-SeaTac), which would prevent cities and towns from banning or heavily restricting homeless encampments on public property, according to 770 KTTH.

    The bill requires any regulations to be “objectively reasonable as to time, place, and manner,” a vague standard determined by judges. It also applies retroactively, potentially nullifying existing ordinances, and provides legal advantages to homeless individuals challenging encampment restrictions.

    The bill allows homeless individuals to sue cities over encampment restrictions, request injunctive or declaratory relief, and argue that the restrictions are unreasonable. If the city loses, taxpayers would be responsible for covering the plaintiffs’ legal fees.

    Opponents claim the bill’s ambiguous language deters cities from enforcing restrictions, as its unclear standards may result in inconsistent court decisions.

    State Rep. Mia Gregerson, who advocates for the right to camp on public property, has proposed legislation that could create legal confusion, with different judges potentially issuing conflicting rulings on the same ordinance.

    The bill offers no clear definition of “objectively reasonable,” leaving the term open to subjective interpretation when applied to encampment restrictions. Courts are directed to prioritize the impact on homeless individuals, even permitting violations of “unreasonable” ordinances if it is necessary for survival, such as staying warm and dry.

    The potential benefits of these ordinances for the broader community are not considered.

    Critics argue this framework makes it nearly impossible for cities to defend their policies, likely by design. A local lawmaker told “The Jason Rantz Show” that Rep. Gregerson did not consult cities in her district before moving forward with the legislation.

    The 770 KTTH report says that most cities can’t afford the lawsuits triggered by challenges to their homeless ordinances under the vague “objective reasonableness” standard, which invites endless legal disputes.

    Critics argue HB 1360, proposed by Rep. Mia Gregerson, is a rebranded version of her controversial “homeless bill of rights” and worsens the crisis by limiting local leaders’ ability to address encampments, prioritizing ideology over solutions.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/23/2025 – 17:20

  • Judge Blocks Trump's Birthright Citizenship Order
    Judge Blocks Trump’s Birthright Citizenship Order

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

    A U.S. judge on Jan. 23 blocked President Donald Trump’s order limiting birthright citizenship.

    U.S. District Judge John Coughenour after a hearing in Seattle issued a temporary restraining order that prohibits the Trump administration for 14 days from enforcing Trump’s order, which the president signed hours after taking office on Monday.

    The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

    “This is blatantly unconstitutional order,” Coughenour told a lawyer with the U.S. Justice Department during the hearing.

    The ruling was made in a case brought by the attorneys general of Arizona, Illinois, Oregon, and Washington state. It was one of several lawsuits lodged against the executive order.

    Trump’s order was set to take effect on Feb. 19. It says that the federal government does not automatically recognize birthright citizenship for children who are born to illegal immigrants in the United States.

    Historically, babies born on U.S. soil receive U.S. citizenship.

    That’s based on court rulings interpreting the U.S. Constitution, which says in part that “all persons born or naturalized in the United States and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States.” Congress also passed a law containing similar language.

    Trump’s order says that the Constitution’s citizenship clause “has never been interpreted to extend citizenship universally to everyone born within the United States” and “has always excluded from birthright citizenship persons who were born in the United States but not ‘subject to the jurisdiction thereof.’”

    It clarifies that the federal government does not automatically grant citizenship to babies whose mothers are in the United States and whose fathers are neither U.S. citizens nor lawful permanent residents.

    In their motion for a temporary restraining order, state officials said that Trump went beyond his powers with the order, describing it as “flatly contrary to the Fourteenth Amendment’s text and history, century-old Supreme Court precedent, longstanding Executive Branch interpretation, and the Immigration and Nationality Act.”

    Without court intervention, the order would leave more than 150,000 babies born this year without citizenship because their parents are illegally in the country, according to the attorneys general.

    Government officials said in response that the court should not issue a restraining order because the states have not suffered any injuries and because the plaintiffs are not likely to succeed.

    “Ample historical evidence shows that the children of non-resident aliens are subject to foreign powers—and, thus, are not subject to the jurisdiction of the United States and are not constitutionally entitled to birthright citizenship,” government lawyers said.

    That included a Supreme Court justice writing in legal commentaries that birthright citizenship should not apply to babies whose parents were in the country “for temporary purposes.”

    Coughenour sided with the states, telling the courtroom before Department of Justice attorney Brett Shumate had even finished talking that he had signed the restraining order sought by the states.

    The two-week order is in place while Coughenour weighs issuing a preliminary injunction, which would likely remain in place as the case proceeds in the courts.

    Schumate during Thursday’s hearing argued the executive order was constitutional and that any order blocking it would be “wildly inappropriate.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/23/2025 – 17:00

  • Kremlin Shrugs Off, Downplays Trump's Threat Of Tariffs: 'Nothing Particularly New Here'
    Kremlin Shrugs Off, Downplays Trump’s Threat Of Tariffs: ‘Nothing Particularly New Here’

    As we’ve reported, President Donald Trump has been warning and urging for Russia to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine or else things will get worse for Moscow, also as Trump has threatened Russia with new tariffs and sanctions if no solution is found.

    But the Kremlin in response appears to have simply shrugged off this threat of sanctions and tariffs, saying in a statement that “we do not see any particularly new elements here” and that “we remain ready for equal and mutually respectful dialogue.”

    Trump’s strong statements are intended to build some quick leverage for Ukraine at the negotiating table – leverage which it clearly doesn’t have on the battlefield as Russian forces continue to make strategic advances around the key city of Pokrovsk.

    Via Reuters

    But Putin isn’t ready to take the bait, it appears, and Trump’s White House and national security team no doubt perceives it will be much tougher dealing with Putin than previously thought.

    Once again, the battlefield is not in Washington or Kiev’s favor: “The Chief Commander of the Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, stated that the army is doing everything within its power to prevent the loss of Pokrovsk. At this moment, there is no talk of encircling the city—the Russians have approached it from only one direction,” a Thursday war report reads.

    “According to the Institute for the Study of War, the Russians remain relentless in their attempts to initiate a large offensive and are moving units from other directions to the Pokrovsk region,” the report adds.

    There won’t a ‘quick fix’ to getting either side to the negotiating table, and given Moscow is completely in the driver’s seat with recent battlefield gains in Donetsk, the Kremlin is unlikely to feel in a hurry.

    Somewhat surprisingly, Ukraine’s Zelensky has started to change his tune on the possibility of every directly engaging Putin in diplomatic talks. He has long said Kiev will never negotiate with Russia so long as Putin is in power, but now…

    However, in an interview with Bloomberg on Wednesday in Davos, Zelensky appeared to have changed his stance on the issue. According to the agency, the Ukrainian leader now says he wants to secure a commitment from Trump to support and secure Ukraine before engaging with Putin.

    “The only question is what security guarantees and honestly I want to have understanding before the talks. If he can guarantee this strong and irreversible security for Ukraine, we will move along this diplomatic path,” he said.

    Such statements also serve to give the Kremlin side more confidence and assurance that it has a stronger hand, given Zelensky is already inching away from past absolutist statements. However, there are reports this week saying that Putin is increasingly concerned about the state of the Russian economy:

    President Vladimir Putin has grown increasingly concerned about distortions in Russia’s wartime economy, just as Donald Trump pushes for an end to the Ukraine conflict, five sources with knowledge of the situation told Reuters.

    Russia’s economy, driven by exports of oil, gas and minerals, grew robustly over the past two years despite multiple rounds of Western sanctions imposed after its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

    The report then emphasizes, “But domestic activity has become strained in recent months by labor shortages and high interest rates introduced to tackle inflation, which has accelerated under record military spending.”

    Zelensky also has little leverage to impose his demands on the White House at this point, and with the more compliant Biden team long gone…

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    Earlier this week, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told an audience at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies in Moscow, “Compared to the hopelessness in every aspect of the previous White House chief (President Joe Biden), there is a window of opportunity today, albeit a small one.” 

    He added: “It’s therefore important to understand with what and whom we will have to deal, how best to build relations with Washington, how best to maximize opportunities and minimize risks.” But Moscow will extract as much as possible from the other side… because it can.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/23/2025 – 16:40

  • Migrants Not Needed: BlackRock's Fink Says 'Xenophobic' Countries Will Have Higher Standard Of Living Amid AI Revolution
    Migrants Not Needed: BlackRock’s Fink Says ‘Xenophobic’ Countries Will Have Higher Standard Of Living Amid AI Revolution

    Via Remix News,

    Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock and arguably one of the most powerful men on the planet, is now openly saying that the countries with xenophobic immigration policies are going to have a higher standard of living, faster productivity growth, and will be better able to accommodate the social impact of artificial intelligence advances over the coming years.

    “You know, we always used to think shrinking population is a cause for negative growth. But in my conversations with the leadership of these large developed countries that have xenophobic immigration policies, they don’t allow anybody to come in, shrinking unemployment, excuse me, shrinking demographics.

    These countries will rapidly develop robotics and AI and technology.

    And if the promise, I didn’t say it’s going to happen, but as a promise of all that transforms productivity, which most of us think it will, we’ll be able to elevate the standard of living of countries and the standard of living of individuals even with shrinking populations,” said Fink.

    “And so the paradigm of negative population growth is going to be changing. And the social problems that one will have in substituting humans for machines is going to be far easier in those countries that have declining populations,” he said.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Fink’s BlackRock manages $10.6 trillion in assets and has access to world leaders, CEOs, and some of the brightest minds on the planet, so when he speaks, people should listen whether they like what he is saying or not.

    When Fink talks about xenophobic countries, he is talking about countries like South Korea, China, and Japan, where robotics and AI are being used to deal with the demographic situation instead of mass immigration. Of course, it must be noted that Fink himself has played a key role in driving DEI policies in corporations. BlackRock has used its trillions in investment dollars to strong-arm companies to adopt these policies, but society is not only turning against the policies, but Fink and others may also see the writing on the wall with AI and automation, and how many of the Asian countries seem to be outperforming the West.

    Examples abound of how these countries are rapidly replacing human labor, and some of the most dramatic changes have taken place in just the last few years, if not the last few months.

    Japan, for example, is where food delivery robots are being deployed instead of migrants from Third World countries, the same migrants who in the West are forced to earn a pittance while enduring tenuous working conditions.

    Meanwhile, China is deploying self-driving buses to shuttle people around instead of refugees. The autonomous vehicle trend is exploding, and it will only accelerate over the next five years to the point that most public transportation will be automated, and if there is any driver at all, he or she will only be there in emergencies.

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    Notably, many of the accidents that do occur on public transport are due to human error.

    South Korea features some of the most highly automated factories in the world. In fact, the country leads the world in robot density and features one robot per ten human workers in manufacturing. It has successfully replaced 10 percent of its workforce through automation. Those trends will only accelerate as humanoid robots are more and more able to fulfill human tasks, a development that will wipe out millions of factory jobs in the coming years.

    Fink is arguing, in essence, that these “xenophobic” Asian countries will continue to lead in terms of automation in part due to their population decline, which makes innovation a necessity. In fact, the West’s reliance on waves of foreign labor, which has also become a serious burden on the social welfare system, has harmed productivity, as companies believe it is not necessary to innovate when many tasks can be solved with cheap labor.

    It is not as if immigration has really led to an improved standard of living either. The United States, which has seen the largest influx of immigrants in the history of mankind, is continuously complaining of a labor shortage, including a “crisis” involving a lack of “skilled labor.” It appears that no matter how many millions arrive in the country from foreign countries, the skilled labor shortage only grows. Meanwhile, the U.S. has been battered by inflation, sky-high housing prices, and increasingly unlivable and highly segregated cities where random acts of violence are a part of “big city” life and where public transport is a daily exercise in whether you will be harassed, assaulted, or simply lit on fire and left to burn alive.

    These countries are not only highly developed, but they actually thrive on a lack of open borders. Despite placing severe restrictions on immigration, they have a higher quality of living than many Western countries. In the schools, there is order and a rich environment for learning. On the streets, there is little fear of being assaulted or raped while out for a jog. There is of course crime, but when looking at crime statistics, for example, from multicultural France, the difference is incredible.

    Automation will only advance from here

    Although fully automated factories have faced challenges, Harvard Business School says a fully “lights-out factory” will be a reality due to AI.

    “Robots are becoming more capable, flexible, and cost-effective, with embodied agents bringing the power of generative AI into the factory environment. Manufacturers must prepare for the inevitable disruption — or risk falling behind,” the authors write.

    All of this obviously raises serious questions about the need for mass immigration. The demand for big business and corporations for skilled and unskilled labor is real; however, if these spots are not fulfilled, these businesses will turn to automation. When it comes to immigration in countries like Germany, many of the immigrants are either on social welfare or in low-skilled professions, and waves of automation will increasingly leave these migrants and native workers unemployed, likely competing for a smaller pool of jobs. On farms, there will be no need for farmworkers anymore either, reducing the need for seasonal labor.

    Japan has the oldest farmers in the world, and it is rapidly turning to technology to overcome this massive demographic challenge.

    “Due to depopulation and aging, the number of Japanese farmers will rapidly decrease,” says Atsushi Suginaka, director-general for policy coordination at Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF). “In order to maintain agricultural production, there are high expectations for ‘smart agriculture’ as a new style of agriculture that combines improved productivity and sustainability.

    “The Japanese government has been promoting smart agriculture in fields and the improvement of smart agriculture technologies. As a result of these efforts, many of these technologies have already been put into practical use: automated tractors, pesticide spraying drones, remote-controlled mowers.”

    There is no doubt that Japan is also turning to temporary workers and limited immigration; however, these immigrants have little chance of becoming citizens, are almost all from Asian countries with similar cultures, and are coming in very limited numbers. The long-term plan for Japan is obviously to focus on productivity and automation over immigration. This means Japan does not have to deal with poor educational integration, cultural polarization, daily gang rapes, large organized foreign criminal groups, and Islamic terror attacks. Perhaps most of all, it does not have to give up its culture to accommodate hundreds of cultures, languages, and mores from all over the world that actively degrade and marginalize Japanese culture.

    After all, Japan has a beautiful country, a beautiful culture, and a rich diversity of peoples within its own nation, which stretches from the tropical Amami Islands in the south to the Northern Japanese Alps. Westerners are increasingly fascinated with the lifestyle presented by Asian countries, which feature safe and luxurious public transport, clean and safe cities, and in many areas, far greater technological progress than the West. Youtube is, for example, rife with videos featuring tens of millions of views simply of individuals traveling on Asian train networks. There is nobody screaming, no threat of random stabbing attacks, and a level of service that simply could not exist on most Western trains.

    Shockingly, Western rail networks are falling to pieces, and countries like Germany featured a record number of train delays in 2023, all while raising fare prices year after year. In New York City, the city’s own data on subway performance paints a miserable picture. Xenophobic Japan, in contrast, supplies incredible rail service and has not raised rail ticket fees for decades.

    Japan’s functioning rail system may have less to do with automation than just practical human engineering and organization skills, but undoubtedly, Japan has invested in its train systems in a manner that works, which does include technology upgrades. This same progress is seen in a variety of fields, and even the International Monetary Fund (IMF) admits that Japan is managing its shrinking workforce through automation advancements.

    The Asian countries get away “morally” with their xenophobia due to the fact that they are not White countries. Notice that Fink does not refer to them as “racist.” Xenophobia comes across as a softer more “technocratic” term. Only White countries must embrace diversity and mass immigration or face the dreaded “r” word.

    Ultimately, the crisis will come when it becomes more and more apparent that humans are just not needed as much, and Fink realizes this, noting that those countries with a falling population will be better able to accommodate the falling demand for labor. Furthermore, homogenous societies like China, Japan and South Korea feature far more social cohesion than the increasingly polarized and fractured societies of the West, which enable these societies to better manage the social disruption brought on by AI.

    The Chinese, for example, are far more optimistic than their European counterparts about the ability of AI to generate new jobs and opportunities. An Ipsos survey shows that 77 percent of Chinese believe AI will likely create new jobs in their country, making them the most optimistic country in the world. Europeans appear to see AI as a threat. Only 29 percent of Poles and Germans believe AI will likely create jobs.

    The crisis will be huge

    Goldman Sachs predicts 300 million jobs will be replaced or degraded in the Western world due to AI, hitting nearly every sector, including legal, engineering, healthcare, sales and design. Already in 2019, it was predicted by Oxford Economics that automation would replace 20 million factory workers by 2030. The same report writes that those same laid-off workers could try to enter the service sector, but they would find that those jobs too were dramatically reduced due to AI.

    AI is already threatening professions that require advanced cognitive skills, such as programming, medicine, and law. Doctors, for example, are facing the reality that AI is far better than doctors at diagnosing illnesses. Already, many surgeries are performed by robotics, which are far more precise than doctors could ever be. Within 10 years, there will be no real need for doctors either.

    Even in the skilled trade professions, such as factory workers, plumbers, gardeners, electricians, and other “physical jobs,” humanoid robots and other robots will increasingly muscle in on these jobs. Humanoid robots are in many ways just a far more advanced research problem than the one faced in developing self-driving vehicles. The self-driving car problem has been largely solved, it is just a matter of scaling it out further. However, you can now get into a Waymo car in San Franciso, and it can bring you from point A to point B, all without human intervention. Millions of people think that the “last-mile” problem is still a thing, but it’s not. There are hundreds of thousands of people driving the last mile every single day in their vehicles in the United States. There were many predicting even just a few years ago that this would not happen, that we were still decades away from self-driving vehicles, but it is happening in cities like San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Phoenix. Tesla drivers across the country are using full autonomous support to drive between cities without any intervention.

    The same advances will happen with humanoid robots. In the end, they simply need to navigate 3-D space, learn from their environment through AI deep learning, and eventually solve problems even if they have not seen the problem before.

    All of this also has the recipe for a disaster for humanity, freeing humans from labor, but removing their agency and sense of self-worth. It will also continue the trend of concentrating wealth, increase surveillance powers, and dramatically reduce the bargaining power of workers. Some industries may be able to ride out these changes, such as government workers or teachers, who have highly protected jobs, but on the whole, fewer and fewer people will be needed to participate to get the same outputs — if not better outputs.

    The dream that the machines would do all the work so humans could “make art” and live a life of happy leisure has been made a mockery of through generative AI art and the doom scrolling that constitutes how many humans now spend their free time. This issue of AI and automation truly transcends all political ideologies, but political ideologies will almost certainly influence how each country manages these changes. The xenophobic countries will also face these challenges, but they are now in a position to reap the full gains of their xenophobic policies, and even Larry Fink is admitting as much.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/23/2025 – 16:20

  • Stargate Stunner: Sam Altman Is A Wraith In Sheep's Clothing
    Stargate Stunner: Sam Altman Is A Wraith In Sheep’s Clothing

    This week, SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son predicted that “artificial superintelligence” will kick off American’s “golden age,” as he announced a $500 billion team-up with Oracle’s Larry Ellison, MGX, and OpenAI’s Sam Altman.

    The new collaboration, dubbed “Stargate,” would massively scale up AI data centers over the next four years, and speed the development of godlike AI systems that Ellison promised could do things like develop cancer vaccines.

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    The collaboration drew harsh and immediate rebuke from Elon Musk, a close Trump advisor who was notably not at the Wednesday press conference, and suggested on X “They don’t actually have the money.”

    He directed particular vitriol at Altman, whose OpenAI he co-founded and is currently suing; he reposted an image of a crack pipe with the joking allegation that Altman and his associates were smoking it. After hours of this, Altman finally slapped back, saying “i realize what is great for the country isn’t always what’s optimal for your companies, but in your new role i hope you’ll mostly put 🇺🇸 first.” –Politico

    And while Altman slapped back against his OpenAI co-founder Musk, both project Stargate, and Altman cozying up to the Trump administration 2.0 has come under attack.

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    Altman Comes Under Fire

    Altman, Reid Hoffman’s pool boy, has come under fire from journalist and author Mike Cernovich, who’s been pointing out that the OpenAI CEO has been a far left activist for a while.

    And Bill Gates…

    And what’s this? Altman has been funding opposition media?

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    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/23/2025 – 16:00

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