Today’s News 22nd October 2016

  • BullionStar attends LBMA Conference in Singapore, October 2016

    Introduction

    This year, the well-known annual conference of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) was held in Singapore between Sunday 16 October and Tuesday 18 October at the impressive Shangri-La Hotel. The conference attracts delegates and speakers from across the world of bullion, with representatives from precious metals refiners, mints, bullion banks, brokers, trading and technology providers, bullion dealers and bullion wholesalers. This year over 700 delegates attended.

    The main speaker sessions, presentation and panel sessions of industry representatives ran over two days, between Monday 17 October and Tuesday 18 October. Topics covered in the speaker sessions were numerous and varied and included the bullion market in China, developments in the Indian gold market, responsible gold guidance, LBMA updates and developments, a dedicated session on platinum group metals, and a session on the financing of refineries.

    As interesting as the speaker sessions and presentations are, many of the conference attendees use at least some of their time at the LBMA conference to engage in meetings with each other on the sidelines. This explains the constant stream of small breakout meetings that took place in the hotel lobby's seating areas, as well as in dedicated meeting rooms around the hotel. BullionStar also used the occasion to meet with existing suppliers from the refining, minting and wholesaling world, as well as to discuss potential business opportunities with new suppliers.

    There were also approximately 20 exhibitor stands at the conference, including stands hosted by CME Group, Brinks, the World Gold Council, IE Singapore (Singapore's trade development authority), Istanbul Gold Refinery (IGR), Metals Focus consultancy, Cinnober, and Nadir Refinery.

    Singapore – Central Business District, Skyline

    Hong Kong – Shenzhen Gold Connect

    On the Sunday prior to the conference, the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange (CGSE) and the Singapore Bullion Market Association (SBMA) co-hosted a pre-conference presentation titled “Building a physical gold corridor in Asia: Shanghai – Hong Kong / Qianhai – Singapore”, at the hotel, which featured a series of discussions about the CGSE’s new gold trading and vaulting project located in the Shenzhen free trade zone at Qianhai, just across the border from Hong Kong.

    Haywood Cheung, Permanent President of CGSE, gave an introductory overview of the Qianhai project, showcasing it as part of China’s “One Belt, One Road” plan, after which Dong Feng, Ping An Commodities Trading in Shenzhen presented a detailed explanation of how the linkages between the CGSE’s trading platform in Hong Kong and Qianhai’s clearing and settlement will for the first time enable the trading of both onshore and offshore Renminbi and the trading of onshore and offshore gold. The Qianhai project integrates trading, clearing, settlement and vaulting, with a 1500 tonne capacity vault, and a trading hall. ICBC will provide settlement of both onshore (Shenzhen) and offshore (Macau) Renminbi as well as providing use of its Shenzhen gold vault (onshore gold settlement) until the CGSE Qianhai vault is completed.

    This onshore and offshore trading and settlement of Yuan and physical gold will facilitate arbitrage trading, and is another step in China’s liberalisation of its currency and its gold market as it links the Chinese currency to physical settlement of gold inside and outside of China. This initiative is one to watch and will demonstrate the Chinese government’s gradual easing of cross-border restrictions on currency and gold flow. Next phase gold trading in Qianhai by CGSE member companies will commence on 7 December.

    With the CGSE having already established a gold trading link with the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) though its Shanghai-Hong Kong Connect, and with the Shenzhen (Qianhai) – Hong Kong Connect now coming on stream, the CGSE is also planning a Singapore – Hong Kong Connect, and a Dubai – Hong Kong Connect, which, if they materialise, will extend physical gold corridor (trading and vaulting connections) across the Asian region and beyond.

    Albert Cheng, CEO of the SBMA, wrapped up the afternoon with an overview presentation of SBMA’s aspirations to evolve Singapore into a bullion market hub for the entire ASEAN region, including countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam and Myanmar. However, details of how this plan will be implemented were not addressed. Cheng also showcased the SGX gold contract which is backed by the SBMA, but which has yet to take off despite being launched over 2 years ago.

    LMEprecious gold Futures

    The first event we attended on Monday was an early morning presentation by the London Metal Exchange (LME) about LMEprecious, its new suite of spot, daily, and monthly gold and silver futures contracts to be launched in the first half of 2017, that will trade on LME’s trading platform, with market-making offered by 5 investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and ICBC Standard Bank. These futures are for delivery of unallocated metal in the London market and the contracts will still clear through the London bullion market's LPMCL unallocated bullion clearing system. In time, the LME plans to launch platinum and palladium futures contracts on LMEprecious, as well as options contracts on all 4 metals. The LMEprecious platform will also link into LBMA’s planned trade reporting system.

    ICE gold Futures

    On Monday morning, ICE Benchmark Administration (IBA), a direct competitor to LME in the precious metals trading and clearing space, used the LBMA conference to make a very well-timed announcement that it too will be launching a new gold futures contract for delivery of unallocated gold in London (loco London). The ICE contract will trade on the ICE US futures platform and will begin trading in February 2017, in advance of the LME contracts. This contract is being designed to be compatible for settlement within the LBMA Gold Price auction which IBA administers in London, and it will, according to IBA, allow the introduction of central clearing into the auctions, and thus facilitate wider auction participation. Currently,the direct auction is exclusively open  to a handful of large banks that have large bi-lateral credit lines with each other. At this stage it’s unclear how the connections between the futures contract and the LBMA Gold Price auction will work, but BullionStar plans to examine this development in future coverage.

    Shangri-La Hotel, Singapore

    Unallocated Gold, Gold Lending and Central Banks

    Given that the LBMA Conference is attended by dozens and dozens of precious metals refineries and mints, it was notable that the subject of "unallocated gold" cropped up in the discussion of LMEprecious and ICE futures contracts, but that there was no discussion in the actual LBMA conference programme schedule of 'unallocated gold' as the term is used by the LBMA. An unallocated gold position in an account in the London gold market is merely a contractual claim for gold against the bank that the account is held with. As such, it is a synthetic gold position.

    It was also odd in our view that there was no seminar or discussion about the London gold lending market within the conference programme. As gold lending is an important and influential area of the London gold market, it affects marginal gold supply, and it has an impact on gold price formation.  Notably, the topic of central bank activities in the gold market was completely ommitted from the conference schedule this year, which was odd given that in previous years there was usually such a session. Have the central bankers involved in the gold market become shy all of a sudden?

    Gold price benchmark for Singapore revisited

    In another announcement on Monday morning at the conference, the Singapore minister for trade and industry announced that the SBMA in conjunction with the LBMA and ICE Benchmark Administration (IBA), there begin a feasibility study on launching a “pre-AM gold price” auction, which would serve as a benchmark for the Asian region and which would be held at 2pm Singapore time, in advance of the European trading day. This Singapore benchmark was already discussed and announced over 3 years ago, but has put on hold in 2014 due to European regulatory investigations at that time into manipulation of the London Gold Fix.

    LBMA Trade Reporting

    The conference speaker programme opened on Monday morning with introductory remarks from Lim Hng Kiang, Singapore Minister for Trade and Industry, outgoing LBMA chairman Grant Angwin, incoming newly appointed ChairmanPaul Fisher who recently arrived from the Bank of England, Tim Pearce, the chairman of the London Platinum and Palladium Market (LPPM), and LBMA CEO Ruth Crowell.

    The LBMA CEO’s introductory speech touch on the planned launch of trade reporting services for the London Gold Market. This trade reporting contract has been awarded to financial technology providers Cinnober – BOAT Services – Autilla, after those partners won the LBMA’s recent RfP tender which had been launched in October 2015. Ruth Crowell referred to trade reporting as ‘Phase 1’ of a new suite of technology services. Trade reporting  will be launched in Q1 2017, and will, according to the LBMA “demonstrate of the size and liquidity of the market for clients, investors and regulators”. Phase 2 of this project refers to services such as central clearing in the London bullion market.

    Further background to the chosen trade reporting solution was provided by Jamie Khurshid, the CEO of BOAT Services. Surprisingly, even though this RfP took the LBMA over 1 year to complete, it will still now require a 'design phase' where BOAT/Cinnober needs to meet with LBMA member firms to discuss the scope of reporting, followed by a period of customisation and configuration of the implementation. Details on what exactly will be reported (the scope) remain sketchy, and since full London gold and silver trade reporting by all participants (including central banks) is not mandatory in a regulatory sense, it remains to be seen to what extent transparency will be improved.  Because if you don't have full mandatory reporting, you don't have transparency. In another related presentation, Sakhila Mirza, LBMA General Counsel stated that trade reporting will apply to loco London spot trades, forwards and options, but that "LBMA and its members retain control over the scope of reporting", which highlights the self-regulatory nature of the reporting, and again may suggest that the trade reporting may not be as granular or have as much informational value as some may think, especially given that central banks will be exempt from trade reporting.

    The Shanghai Gold Exchange and Chinese Gold Market

    Monday's schedule also included an  informative series of presentations titled "The Bullion Market in China" from an impressive list of experts. Jiao Jinpu, chairman of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), provided an overview of the latest developments from the SGE, which has a network of 61 vaults across 35 cities in China, and where physical trading volume reached 34,100 tonnes of gold in 2015. Jinpu revealed that the International Board of the SGE (known as SGEI) has, since launch in September 2014, traded 7,838 tonnes of gold, while the daily Shanghai Gold Price auction, only launched in April 2016, has already traded 384 tonnes, worth RMB 105.5 billion, giving it an average daily trading volume of 3.4 tonnes. Jinpu also vindicated BullionStar's estimates of 2015 SGE gold withdrawals, because, in the words of Jinpu, he sits on the SGE tap, and knows exactly how much gold has been withdrawn from the Exchange vaults.

    In his speech, Jinpu announced that in the near future, the SGE and other exchanges will begin using the SGE Gold Price benchmark to develop gold price derivative products.

    Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) Chairman JiaoJinpu

    In another notable confirmation, Yang Qing, from the Bank of China, one of China's largest commercial banks involved in the global gold market, responding to a question posed by BullionStar, said that he thinks that in future, the Chinese currency, the Renminbi, should have an element of gold backing.

    In what was probably one of the most interesting and revealing presentations from BullionStar's perspective, and which vindicates the extensive research and analysis that BullionStar's precious metals analyst Koos Jansen has done on the Chinese gold market, Matthew Turner from Macquarie Commodities Research in London gave a presentation about how to accurately capture and estimate the total trade flows of gold into China given that China does not publish this data itself.

    One of Turner's approaches is to use the trade data of all other countries which do report gold exports to China. This approach reveals that China imported 1626 tonnes of gold in 2015 from a number of countries, primarily Hong Kong, Switzerland, the UK and Australia. Another more elegant Turner approach is to take China's total import figure which it does publish, as well as the summated figures of  all of China's other import categories of data, which China also does publish, and then derive the gold import quantities as the delta.

    This approach yields a net gold import figure of 1693 tonnes in 2015. Both of these figures are very close to BullionStar's previously published Chinese gold import data estimates, as calculated by Koos Jansen. Adding 2015 Chinese gold mining production to imports gives total new supply coming into the Chinese market in 2015 in excess of 2000 tonnes, which is over 1000 tonnes higher than consumer gold demand as estimated by consultancies such as GFMS and the World Gold Council.

    LBMA and SGE familiar with BullionStar's research

    On the Monday evening we attended a dinner hosted by Australia and New Zealand Bank (ANZ) at Singapore’s famous Raffles Hotel. Just after arriving we had the privilege of chatting for a few minutes to Jiao Jinpu, chairman of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) via his colleague and interpreter Jess Yang, and we highlighted to him BullionStar’s extensive research from Koos Jansen on the China gold market and the SGE, which we were impressed that he was already familiar with. Dinner conservation was interesting and varied as we were seated at a table with representatives of the London Metal Exchange, ICE Benchmark Administration (IBA), the CME Group, GFMS, Metalor Singapore, and the Royal Canadian Mint.

    During the conference, we also learned that the LBMA is familiar with BullionStar's research into the London gold market, another confirmation that the analysis that we publish is read widely within the bullion industry.

    As the conference wrapped up on the Tuesday afternoon, delegates were asked to forecast what the US Dollar gold price will be this time next year. Audience members submitted their forecasts via a special handheld device in the auditorium, which resulted in an average forecast of US$ 1347.

    BullionStar Seminar during LBMA Week

    To coincide with the fact that the LBMA conference was located in Singapore this year, BullionStar hosted a number of events at its shop and showroom premises on New Bridge Road, Singapore. On the Saturday prior to the conference, 15 October, BullionStar held a 'meet and greet' morning, where customers and anyone in town for the conference could pop in and chat with BullionStar staff. On Wednesday 19 October, BullionStar held a precious metals seminar in its showroom premises at which BullionStar CEO Torgny Persson and Precious Metals Analyst Ronan Manly presented to an audience on the topics of Bullion Banking, and Transparency vs Secrecy in the gold market. The presentations and transcripts of these speeches will be published on the BullionStar website in the near future.

  • October Comex Gold "Deliveries"

     

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    October Comex Gold “Deliveries”


     

     

    As we’ve been monitoring all year, the total amount of gold allegedly “delivered” through the Comex has soared in 2016. This is simply another anecdotal datapoint of gold demand but the trend is certainly noteworthy, particularly when you see the numbers thus far in October.

     

    We’ve already written about this trend several times this year. Our most recent article is linked below and I strongly encourage you to read this post as a refresher before you continue.

     

     

    As noted in the post above, 2016 has seen a very unusual “delivery” pattern for gold on the Comex. Consistent with surging open interest and surging demand for gold in all its forms around the world, “deliveries” of gold through the Comex have increased as well. However, when you compare “deliveries” for 2016 versus 2015, you’ll notice that the divergence and increase didn’t really begin in earnest until June if this year. See below:

     

    As you can see, for the first six months of 2015, the amount of Comex gold “deliveries” totaled 4,149 for 414,900 ounces or about 13 metric tonnes. Through May of 2016, total Comex gold “deliveries” were 9,683 for 968,300 or about 30 metric tonnes. As you can quickly do the math, this is over a 2X increase and certainly noteworthy on its own merit.

     

    However, beginning with the “delivery month” of June, Comex gold “deliveries” began to explode at a startling pace. Check the charts above again and note the totals over the past four months. For the period June-September 2015, total Comex gold “deliveries” were 8,832 for 883,200 ounces or about 27.5 metric tonnes. For the same period this year, total Comex gold “deliveries” totaled 39,646 for 3,964,600 ounces or about 123.5 mts. This is about 4.5X times the 2015 amount.


    And now look at what has happened during October…a month which is historically the lightest “delivery month” on the Comex calendar. Again, referring to the charts above, you can see that the total number of Oct 15 “deliveries” was 950 for 95,000 ounces or slightly less than 3 metric tonnes. Through yesterday, October 21, the Oct 16 “delivery” total is a whopping 9,163 for 916,300 ounces or about 28.5 metric tonnes. This is over a 9X increase versus the same month last year!


    And this gets even more interesting when you drill down into the day-by-day “deliveries” and open interest…

     

    The Oct16 Comex gold contract went “off the board” back on September 29. That evening, there will still 7,393 Oct 16 contracts still open and, with First Notice Day pending the next day, all of these remaining contracts had to be fully funded with 100% margin, indicating a willingness and financial ability to take or make delivery. The October deliveries began on September 30 and total Oct 16 open interest fell to 4,458 as 2,470 contracts were “delivered” and 465 contracts were liquidated by speculators unwilling or unable to make the 100% margin requirement.

     

    A normal “delivery” pattern would then show a declining amount of open interest in the active “delivery” month as gold is “delivered” and contracts are closed. However, as you can see below, it has been a very busy month. You should also be sure to note the current total:

     

     

    So, contributing to the total “delivery” number that exceeds last October by a factor of 9.5, there has been a surge of new open interest that has entered the Oct16 contract with the intention of either making or taking immediate “delivery” of gold…electing not to wait for November or the huge “delivery month” of December. The additions of open interest so far total 1,523 contracts for 152,300 ounces or nearly 5 metric tonnes.

     

    Of course, the Comex and CME Group deliberately make it nearly impossible to discern if this is a rush to buy or sell “gold” in October. This new open interest could be a party looking to immediately unload $200,000,000 worth of gold. However, it could also be someone or something looking to buy and take immediate “delivery” of $200,000,000 worth of gold. It could also be some combination of the two…no one can say with certainty. And much of this is the usual Comex Bullion Bank Circle Jerk where one Bank issues out the warehouse receipts while another Bank stops and takes “delivery”.

     

    Total Stops: Goldman 2,936, JPM 2,095 and Scotia 819

     

    Total Issuance: Scotia 3,100, Goldman 1,409 and HSBC 532

     

    You can see the entire report here: http://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/MetalsIssuesAndStopsYTDReport.pdf

     

    And this is also interesting. Note the sudden involvement of two firms which had, heretofore, had very little if any activity:

     

     

    More information on those two firms here:

     

     

    For example, just yesterday, 608 “deliveries” were issued out of the House Account of Macquarie with 533 being stopped into the House Account at Scotia:

     

     

    But I don’t want to get bogged down in the minutiae as this post is not about attempting to unravel the riddle wrapped in mystery inside of an enigma that is The Comex. Instead, we simply wanted to draw your attention to the astonishing increase in the pace of Comex “deliveries”.Again, this DOES NOT signal that some sort of Comex delivery failure is imminent or eventual. However, in an anecdotal indicator similar to surging ETF inventories, this massive expansion in the amount of gold allegedly “delivered” through Comex is clearly a sign of a significant increase in demand for gold and synthetic, gold-related investments in 2016. If this trend continues, you can be certain that the new bull market for price, which began early this year, will continue into 2017 and beyond.

     

     

     

    Please email with any questions about this article or precious metals HERE

     

     

     

     

     

    October Comex Gold “Deliveries”


  • A Realist's View Of The US Presidential Contest

    Submitted by Eric Zuesse via Strategic-Culture.org,

    Because the viewpoint expressed here will be a controversial one not frequently expressed or encountered, links are provided in order to enable the reader quickly to access the documentation wherever a particular allegation might seem to be dubious on the basis of false assertions that any particular reader might have read elsewhere; but, otherwise, the links that are provided here are intended to be simply ignored, especially because so many of the allegations here are highly contentious and therefore require providing ready access to the documentation (and because no reader should waste his time to read documentation at a linked item that the reader already believes to be true):

    The rape-allegations that have been raised recently against Donald Trump, turned the US Presidential contest so drastically, that a Hillary Clinton victory now appears to be all but certain. Morning Consult headlined on October 18th“Donald Trump Has a Growing Problem With Men”, and reported: “Before the first debate, Trump led his Democratic counterpart, Hillary Clinton, by 8 points among men in a Morning Consult survey of likely voters. After the second debate and nine women making sexual assault allegations against Trump, those numbers have nearly flipped: Clinton now leads Trump among men by 6 points.”

    That’s a 14% swing away from Trump, among half of the electorate, during a time-interval extending from 24 September to 15 October — 21 days — with only 22 days left until voting ends (hardly enough time to reverse that plunge and then to rise into the lead). Rape allegations couldn’t get Bill Clinton forced out of office, but they likely will force Hillary Clinton into office. Future historians might say that the biggest issue in the 2016 US Presidential contest was rape — more important to voters than the economy, the wars, the income-stagnation of the bottom 99%, trade-policy, criminal-justice reform, or any other public-policy issue. But, if this turns out to be so, then is America at all a functioning democracy? Might it instead be a sick society, whose values are so out-of-kilter, so plainly stupid, that it fits more the stereotype of a backward culture, than of a successful and forward-looking one?

    Some of the issues that are actually at stake in this election — especially nuclear war — could quickly end all civilization as we know it; but the voters’ main issue seems instead to be rape. Does this reflect democracy, or rather a lack of democracy, or a manipulation of democracy? Should a personal crime, which isn’t a crime of government, actually be an issue in elective politics? Should it be an issue even if there has been no court-ruling and conviction in the case? And, if it should, then should it dominate an election, such as it is in 2016 America? If it should be an issue at all, then, given the enormous stakes in the current US election, it should be an extremely minor one, notwithstanding how repulsive any rapist is, but especially because there hasn’t even been legal process about any of the allegations, and because even a Presidential candidate who is publicly accused of a personal crime is supposed to be innocent until a court rules “guilty.”

    Joachim Hagopian is correct to report, at Global Research, on October 18th, that, “The current threat level to every human life on this planet even surpasses the October Cuban Missile Crisis of 54 years ago as the earth today is in more peril by manmade [nuclear] destruction than any previous time in human history.” However, even if that outcome will fortunately be avoided, the sheer war-stakes in this Presidential election are enormous, and they appear to have little impact upon the voters, other than for them perhaps to fear placing a possible rapist (such as Bill Clinton also was) in charge of US (if not also of other nations’) national security.

    Micah Zenko, of the overwhelmingly pro-Hillary-Clinton, neoconservative (pro-invasion)Council on Foreign Relations, headlined, on 29 July 2016, in the neoconservative Foreign Policy magazine (which denies that it’s neoconservative but cannot cite even a single article that it has published attacking neoconservatism), “Hillary the Hawk: A History”, and he documented that, “She has consistently endorsed starting new wars and expanding others.” He closed by saying: “Those who vote for her should know that she will approach such crises with a long track record of being generally supportive of initiating US military interventions and expanding them.”

    I have independently reviewed her performance as the US Secretary of State, and have found nothing in her record that would contradict Zenko’s statement (other than his single false word there, ‘generally’), though I wrote clearly as a warning, and not merely (like Zenko did), to describe what her policies have been; I have (on many and diverse occasions) explicitly condemned those invasions as violations not only against the victim-nations but against the American public, whom the US Secretary of State is supposed to represent. International aggression does not represent the interests of the American public. If she becomes America’s President, then clearly there will be war, lots of it.

    Hillary Clinton not only ardently championed George W. Bush’s kicking the U.N.’s weapons inspectors out of Iraq in 2003 so that we could invade, but as Secretary of State in the Obama Administration led in every aggressive policy, and her protégés in the State Department after she left, such as Victoria Nuland, oversaw the carrying-out of those acts of aggression, and her former boss President Obama even sometimes overrode his new Secretary of State John Kerry (as Obama never did to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton) and approved the aggressive policies of Hillary’s (now Kerry’s) underlings (which humiliated Kerry). Whereas Obama is a quiet neoconservative, Hillary is a loud and proud one. Her support of invading Iraq in 2003 was no ‘mistake’ or ‘aberration’ on her part; it reflected her fundamental orientation toward foreign policy. That’s what her voters will be voting for, if they are intelligent and accurately informed (as opposed to “voting for the first woman President” or other irrelevancies); because that’s what America and the world will importantly get if she becomes the next US President. (After all: Margaret Thatcher was also a woman; gender is irrelevant.) This is clear.

    Donald Trump has no record in public office; and, up against Hillary Clinton’s demonstrated catastrophic record in public office, that lack of governmental experience alone constitutes a major reason to prefer him over her in this Presidential election. Whether he would start wars is unknown, but he has spoken forcefully of the need for the US to improve its relations with Russia. Hillary Clinton (like all other neoconservatives) criticizes him for that. (And the US ‘Defense’ industry has poured money into Hillary’s campaign but given almost nothing to Trump’s.

    Perhaps the main reason why the main criticisms of Trump have concerned his private life, not his policy-record in public office, is because he has no policy-making record at all. The issues that have been raised in support of Hillary (since her positive achievements in public office have been virtually nil) have mainly focused on Trump’s personal affairs, and on his alleged acts of bigotry and even rape, because these are matters that distract voters from the real and urgent issues, which weigh so heavily and so substantially against her candidacy.

    Rape has become the chief focus during the campaign’s closing days, because polls have indicated clearly that voters are more concerned about whether their President is a rapist than about whether he or she is a warmonger. Though they weren’t so concerned about such allegations when Bill Clinton was President, Trump’s often-crude speech makes such accusations against him far more credible than in Bill Clinton’s case — even though that ought not to be so.

    No one except the women who have accused Bill Clinton and Donald Trump of rape can know, or can even think they know, whether a court would have convicted the alleged rapist if a court had been enabled to issue such a decision; but there can be no doubt whatsoever, that Hillary Clinton has been actively supporting the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, the US invasion of Libya in 2011, and is now supporting a far more aggressive US invasion of Syria (which would mean war against Russia) — supporting it consistently. She also has actively supported the 2009 coup in Honduras (which replaced the progressive democratically elected President there by a string of fascist tyrants and the world’s highest murder-rate), and the overthrow of Ukraine’s democratically elected government in 2014 (which was immediately followed by a break-up of the country and a plunge into depression and soaring debt).

    Each one of these invasions and coups produced even worse conditions in the invaded or overthrown country afterward; but, only in the single case, of the invasion of Iraq by George W. Bush, which subsequently became overwhelmingly condemned by the Democratic Party itself, did Hillary Clinton (with whatever sincerity an intelligent person can attribute to her, which is whatever the person thinks it to be) admit that she had made a ‘mistake’ on that one occasion. She doesn’t apologize for any of the other cases, because there is no such political requirement for her to do so. 

    How many times does a high public official need to repeat essentially the same ‘mistake’ (actively as a public official pushing for horrific invasions), before the voters in that person’s political party (in this case, Democrats) come to recognize that they’ve been consistently lied-to by that person, and that they’ve been that politician’s suckers by voting for that catastrophically war-mongering person? After all, no sane voter wants America to go to war against Russia. But that’s the direction in which we’re currently heading. And Hillary Clinton wants to go farther there.

    America’s Presidential choice will be either Hillary Clinton, a proven and repeated warmonger who has left a lengthy trail of death and destruction behind her as her blood-soaked clear and consistent record in public office (and Zenko made special note that “She also has developed close relations with retired military officers like Gen. Jack Keane, who has rarely seen a country that cannot be improved with US ground troops and airstrikes. As Bob Woodward wrote of a 2009 meeting between the two to discuss the Afghan surge: ‘Clinton greeted Keane with a bear hug, astonishing [US envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard] Holbrooke because — and he should know — Hillary rarely bear-hugged anyone.” (Here is Jack Keane being praised by the prominent super-neocon Republican Paul Wolfowitz, who will vote for Hillary Clinton, against Donald Trump.)

    Or else it will be a possible rapist, like her husband also was, who served two terms in the White House, but this time it would be a man of the opposite political party: Donald Trump. No matter how gross Mr. Trump is: he, unlike Hillary Clinton, cannot be intelligently evaluated by an abysmal record in public office, because he simply has no record at all in public office, nothing whatsoever; but he has only strings of public statements, most of which contradict each other. (As Zenko said: “Unlike Donald Trump, who has wildly shifting positions and alleged ‘secret’ plans to defeat the Islamic State, Clinton has an extensive track record upon which one can evaluate her likely positions.”) What Hillary Clinton’s public statements contradict is her actual record in public office, which is as far right-wing (pro-international-corporate), especially in foreign affairs and US trade policy (including NAFTA, TTIP, etc.) (and the common term for this in the military sphere is “neoconservative”), as any of her many financial backers on Wall Street could realistically hope for from any potential future US President — which is why she’s backed by almost all of America’s billionaires.

    One of those two persons will be the next US President. Anyone else who alleges that he or she wants to be, and whose name will also appear on the Presidential ballot, is just a fake there, because, for example, Ralph Nader never ever won even so much as a single one of the 50 states in the Electoral College in any of his contests for the Presidency (not to mention a majority of all the EC votes, such as each of these spoilers lies, or lied, to claim to be his or her goal, but really just being a bad joke on that person’s voters). Nor will any of the current aspiring Presidential spoilers win even a single state. 

    It’s going to be either the possible rapist, or else the definite and serial warmonger. The next US President will be one of those two people. On the one side is, maybe, a rapist. On the other side is certainly a warmonger.

    Each voter must make his/her own choice: either drink possibly cyanide, or drink definitely arsenic. Those are the only two choices left in America’s ‘democracy’, and neither of them was the top choice of the most Americans during the primaries-season: the top choice was Bernie Sanders, and the second choice was John Kasich. In a truly democratic system, those two would be the final contestants. 

    Each and every American voter in this existing contest will either select and drink his/her cup, or else simply allow all the other US voters in this contest collectively to select the cup that he/she and all other Americans will then be drinking during the next four years.

    That’s a realistic view of this contest. But this is only one person’s analysis. Anyone who finds fault in it, is welcomed to provide and document a counter-argument below, as a reader-comment, or anywhere else this commentary is published.

    Meanwhile, here is my answer to a person who, in a prior reader-comment, said that I am trying to ‘herd’ America’s voters into one or the other of America’s rotten political parties: I voted for Bernie Sanders, but I’m no such fool as to think that anyone like that still has a chance to win the US Presidency in 2016. I didn’t do the ‘herd’ing here; the US political system does it, when the political primary season ends and the general-election contest starts. If Jill Stein had wanted to reform the Democratic Party, she missed her chance to do that when she failed even to enter the Democratic primaries.

    And, unlike the Whig Party, which had already become so widely rejected by the electorate by the time of 1860, so that a former Whig, Abraham Lincoln, was able virtually to start its successor, the Republican Party in 1860 (which got shot dead and taken over by the aristocracy when he was shot dead, in 1865), America’s voters haven’t yet reached the point where they’re willing to replace the Democratic Party with the Green Party or any other (much less to protect it if yet another assassination kills the progressive replacement-party like Lincoln’s Republican Party was). No matter what any third-party proponent might say, there’s no chance that 2016 is going to be some repeat of 1860. America is, and (like any nation that has a Presidential system) can only be, a two-party political system. The Founders didn’t know that, but we’ve now got hundreds of years all proving it to be so.

    I mention that particular objection because it’s the one I most commonly have gotten in the past.

    One final observation here: The reality of politics and governmental policymaking is incredibly ugly, and anyone who makes voting decisions on the basis of a politician’s mere private and personal life is a fool, because public policy really is, in the deepest sense, a very different and vastly more consequential and important moral sphere, having shockingly little to do with the person’s private behavior. The only intelligent way to judge any candidate is by that person’s past record of actual policy-decisions in public office, not at all by either the person’s mere words, or his private life (such as described in this example).

    Even for Abraham Lincoln, who (along with FDR) is considered by historians to have been the greatest President, only his actions on policy made him that, and even his greatness as a rhetorician possesses relevance for historians only insofar as it was a part of that policy-record. Furthermore: both George Washington and Thomas Jefferson owned and ordered slaves, but neither man was a lesser President for having done that (even if historians do debate whether such Presidents were lesser persons for having done it).

    To evaluate a politician by either his personal life or his mere rhetoric is not only foolish but petty. History proves this on thousands, if not millions, of occasions. Policy-actions are the only factor that’s important when evaluating a politician. It has been true throughout human history. A politician who has no record of policy-actions is thus a zero (like a mere coin-flip: presuming one side to be positive, the other negative); a politician who has a bad policy-record is thus a negative, and a politician who (like Bernie Sanders) has a positive policy-record is thus a positive. No intelligent estimation of America’s immediate political future can be positive; it’s either zero (like Trump) or else negative (like Hillary). That’s where we are (somewhere between zero and negative), and that’s the real choice we’ve been presented: either it’s Trump (zero), or else it’s Hillary (negative). I, a Sanders-voter, am choosing Trump, in preference to Clinton.

    *  *  *

    Investigative historian Eric Zuesse is the author, most recently, of They’re Not Even Close: The Democratic vs. Republican Economic Records, 1910-2010, and of CHRIST’S VENTRILOQUISTS: The Event that Created Christianity.

  • Over 60% Of Americans Fear "Corruption Of Government Officials" Above Anything Else

    “Global warming”? “Obamacare”? “Terrorism”? all rank in the Top 10 fears for Americans. While ‘creepy clowns’ are all the rage, according to the Chapman University Survey of American Fears, corruption of government officials is the top fear among U.S. adults this year.

    This chart shows the % of Americans who reported being “afraid” or “very afraid” of the following…

    Infographic: Americans' Top Fears In 2016 | Statista
    You will find more statistics at Statista

    Just don’t tell the mainstream media.. because that would be threatening the very core of America’s democracy… or some such bullshit.

  • The United States Of Refugees

    Submitted by Ben Christopher via Priceonomics.com,

    Consider the state of Nebraska. What comes to mind?

    Common associations with the Cornhusker state include: row crops, silos, college football, Warren Buffet, and wholesome, earnest Americana.

    Now try this one: Refugee Capital of the United States.

    So far this year, the City of Omaha has settled over 900 people fleeing war, persecution, and disaster around the world. That may be a small figure relative to the estimated 21.3 million refugees worldwide (or relative to the population of Omaha, for that matter, which is roughly 434,000). But it’s still higher than the number of refugees resettled in Los Angeles and New York City combined.

    That disproportionate hospitality extends across the entire state, where over 1,300 refugees have found new homes this year. That may not be much compared to the resettlement statistics in larger states, like California, Texas, and New York. But given Nebraska’s population of fewer than 2 million, on a per person basis, this makes the state the most welcoming of refugees in the nation. For every 100,000 residents, Nebraska resettled roughly 71 refugees in 2016. By the same measure, California welcomed fewer than 18.

    If these figures don’t jibe with your understanding of where refugees live in the United States, that might be because you’ve been following this year’s presidential election. When Donald Trump claims that we “have no documentation” about the “Trojan horse” refugees who live in this country, and when Republican governors across the country insist that they will not abide Syrian refugees resettling within their borders, they not only raise suspicions about some of the world’s most vulnerable people, they fundamentally mischaracterize what may be the most complex human relocation system on the planet.

    This is a system in which international, federal, and charitable organizations all work together to bring more refugees to the United States than any other country—and which places more of them in Boise, Idaho; Des Moines, Iowa; and Bowling Green, Kentucky; than in New York City.  

    How does this system work and how did we get to this point?

    Somalis in the Buckeye State

    If you’re looking to answer these questions, a good starting point might be Columbus, Ohio.

    Over the last two decades, the city has become one of the most popular resettlement locations for those fleeing war, persecution, and deprivation in Somalia.

    To be clear, this population represents a small trickle of all Somalis hoping to leave the country or the refugee camps in adjacent Kenya. The refugee application process is notoriously complex and time-intensive. An aspiring refugee must first get a referral from the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees or from a local embassy before they even have permission to apply for refugee status. This application process requires extensive pre-screenings, background checks, health examinations, and on-site interviews. From start to finish, the process can, and generally does, take years—and of those who make it to the screening phase, only half are ultimately resettled.

    Still, many are. Over the last ten years, the United States has resettled over 70,000 Somali refugees. Many have come to Ohio. Today, Columbus has the second largest Somali population in the United States after Minneapolis.

    Why Columbus, of all places?

    Data: Worldwide Refugee Admissions Processing System, U.S. State Department.

    “The short answer to your question is: it’s complicated.”

    That’s the response from Tamar Forrest, the Director of Development at the Economic and Community Development Institute in Columbus, Ohio. The ECDI was founded by a refugee from the Soviet Union in 2004 and provides various social and economic development services to Columbus’ sizable Somali refugee community.

    “For one, we’re a bit of a victim of our own success,” she says. “Our resettlement agencies are really, really good.”

    When a refugee is finally approved for resettlement in the United States, the State Department matches the applicant with one of nine resettlement organizations. These are non-profits, many of them religiously-affiliated, and they—not federal or state governments—are the organizations that decide where a refugee will be resettled.

    That decision often comes down to logistics, says Forrest. Does a city have enough affordable housing? Does the resettlement organization have a local network of ESL teachers and caseworkers to refer to? Are there organizations like ECDI on the ground ready to help with job training and financial literacy courses?

    But once a refugee community is established in a specific town or city, it begins to exert its own gravitational force. Resettlement agencies will often try to place refugees from a particular country into a community in which they have family or community ties to draw upon. And so Somalis are resettled in Columbus because Somali refugees have been placed in Columbus in the past.

    This process takes place with or without the resettlement agencies, says Forrest.

    “There were people in Columbus, like Bantu Somalis and Somalis, calling their family and friends in the refugee camp in Kakuma [in Kenya],” she says. “And they were saying, no matter where you go—if it's Atlanta, if it's Chicago, if it's New York—you have to make it to Columbus.”

    Of course, it’s common for refugees to move from the town or city in which they are initially placed. These “secondary migrations,” as scholars call them, mean that official refugee resettlement statistics (like the data used to make the map at the top of this article) offer an incomplete picture at best. In a paper that Forrest co-authored with Ohio State University professor Lawrence Brown in 2014, she estimated that between 2000 and 2005, over 2,500 refugees left California for other states, while over 1,000 resettled in the Golden State.

    This national reshuffling also serves to reinforce the placement decisions of resettlement agencies. As the local Somali community grows in Columbus, more Somali refugees from around the country move there, which encourages resettlement agencies to resettle more Somalis in Columbus, which causes the local Somali community to grow, and so on.

    Data: Worldwide Refugee Admissions Processing System, U.S. State Department.

    Thus, what is effectively a choice of convenience by one of nine non-profits across the country can establish an American city as the go-to locale for a specific refugee community.

    It’s a common story. This is the reason that so many refugees from the Democratic Republic of the Congo have recently been resettled in Atlanta (1,198 in the last three years), why so many Syrians now live in San Diego (871), and why you can now find so many Iraqi refugees in Houston (1,783).

    Iraqis in Houston

    Ali Al Sudani is one of those Iraqi refugees.

    When Sudani arrived in Houston in 2009, he knew close to nothing about the city. Having spent the previous three years working for an NGO in Jordan and applying for refugee status, his understanding of life in Texas was derived solely from television.

    In three words: “Cowboys, guns, and the oil industry,” he says.

    Still, his boss had family in Houston and had spoken highly of the economic opportunities there. And so after a year of referrals, applications, background checks, health inspections, and cultural orientation courses, he boarded a plane for George Bush Intercontinental Airport.

    Sudani was not alone. As the United States military began to slowly withdraw from Iraq at the end of 2007, Iraqis like Sudani, who had spent the years of the U.S. occupation working with coalition troops or foreign NGOs, were being targeted for retaliation in ever growing numbers. For both humanitarian and political reasons, the U.S. State Department began ramping up the number of refugee applications that it processed from Iraq and the camps in Jordan.

    But when Sudani’s plane landed in in Houston in 2009, there were still relatively few Iraqis in the city. A local charity, Interfaith Ministries for Greater Houston, helped him secure an apartment in the southwest corner of Houston, but they had few Arabic-speaking caseworkers and most of Sudani’s refugee neighbors were Cuban.

    Though Sudani had learned to speak English while working with American and British troops in Iraq, he still enrolled in the ESL and cultural orientation courses offered out of his apartment building. This gave him a chance to meet his neighbors and to learn how to navigate some of America’s more mysterious institutions: how to open a bank account, how to find a doctor, how to traverse Houston’s infamous five-level stack highway interchanges without crashing his car.

    Two months after he arrived, Interfaith Ministries, the same charity that had helped Sudani get situated, offered him a job. Every day, more Iraqis were arriving in Houston and the organization desperately needed someone who could connect with the burgeoning Iraqi community.

    Data: Worldwide Refugee Admissions Processing System, U.S. State Department.

    That community was growing every day. Sudani could see that firsthand from where he lived.

    “In the apartment complex that I used to live in, I was the only Iraqi,” he recalls. “And then there was another guy. And then another family…But later on, over the last two or three years, I think it was a large community of Iraqis living in that apartment complex and across that neighborhood.”

    Six years later, Sudani is now Program Director or Refugee Services for Interfaith Ministries for Greater Houston. These days, that’s a very busy job. In the last ten years, Houston has resettled more refugees than any other city in the country. (Though that rank is arguably shared with San Diego, if you include nearby El Cajon). 

    Why is it that Houston, of all places, has been the most welcoming city for the tired, poor, huddled masses of the word? Is it the local network of resettlement services? The large international community? The proximity to a large airport?

    That may be be part of it, says Sudani. But he also offers a more straightforward explanation: “Houston has a strong economy and the cost of living is affordable.”

    “Refugee are normal people,” he says. “They’re just in abnormal circumstances.”

  • Former Haitian Senate President Calls Clintons "Common Thieves Who Should Be In Jail"

    Despite repeatedly bragging about all the good work the Clinton Foundation did to help Haiti recover from the devastating 2010 earthquake, at least one Haitian, former Senate President Bernard Sansaricq, thinks it was the Clintons, not the Hiatian people, who benefitted most from the Foundation’s “charitable work” in Haiti.  Appearing on a radio show last week, Sansaricq offered a scathing assessment of the Clinton’s track record in Haiti saying they are “nothing but common thieves…and they should be in jail.”  Per PJ Media:

    Sandy Rios of American Family Radio interviewed former Haitian Senate President Bernard Sansaricq on Thursday, and the enraged Haitian had nothing good to say about the Clintons. He angrily claimed that they brought their “pay to play” politics to Haiti at the expense of the Haitian people.

     

    Sansaricq said that the Clinton Foundation received 14.3 billion dollars in donation money to help with the relief effort. President Obama and UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon put the Clinton Foundation in charge of the reconstruction, but Haiti has seen no help. The money all went to friends of Bill Clinton.

     

    “They are nothing but common thieves,” the enraged Sansaricq told Rios. “And they should be in jail.”

    As also highlighted in the movie “Clinton Cash,” Sansaricq argued that the Clinton’s did nothing more than bring their pay-to-play tactics to Haiti resulting in the enrichment of Clinton cronies, including Hillary’s brother Anthony Rodham, whose company was awarded a lucrative gold mining contract.

    Sansaricq said although Bill Clinton was put in charge of the reconstruction, he did absolutely nothing but give contracts to his cronies and built a sweatshop next to a goldmine that was given to Hillary Clinton’s brother, Anthony Rodham, in violation of the Haitian constitution.

     

    He said he could go on for hours about the Clinton Foundation’s destruction of the rice production in Haiti because they were importing rice from Clinton’s cronies in Arkansas. And rice is something Haiti could really use right now.

     

    The Clintons also awarded the country’s only cell phone company to another crony, Denis O’Brien, using taxpayer dollars. O’Brien has made 265 million dollars, and a substantial portion of that  has gone back to the Clinton Foundation.

    Of course, these claims are hard to deny given that recently released emails, obtained through a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit by the Republican National Committee, and subsequently shared with ABC News, reveal very open special treatment of “Friends of Bill” (“FOB” for short) by the State Department in granting access to recovery efforts in Haiti, in which $10 billion in emergency aid was spent after the 2010 earthquake. 

    The emails showed very close coordination between Caitlin Klevorick, a senior State Department official, and Amitabh Desai, the director of foreign policy for the Clinton Foundation, as they exchanged emails from Foundation donors looking to participate in the Haiti recovery efforts.  While many donors likely were just looking to make charitable contributions, others, as evidenced below, were simply looking to capture their “fair share” of $10 billion in emergency aid contracts doled out by the U.S. government.  

    The following exchange between Klevorick and Dasai, with the subject line “Haiti Assistance,” shows the State Department very clearly asking for “Friends of Bill” to be flagged for special consideration.

    “Need you to flag when people are friends of WJC,” wrote Caitlin Klevorick, then a senior State Department official who was juggling incoming offers of assistance being funneled to the State Department by the Clinton Foundation. “Most I can probably ID but not all.”

    FOB

     

    Of course, this directly contradicts comments that Bill Clinton previously made to CBS’ Charlie Rose just last month when he assured voters that “nothing was ever done for anybody because they were contributors to the foundation, nothing.”

    In another Klevorick and Dasai exchange, the State Department official asks “Is this a FOB!” saying that “If not, she should go to cidi.org” (a general government website).

    FOB

     

    As also mentioned by Sansaricq, another series of messages uncovered the efforts of billionaire Denis O’Brien, a longtime donor to the Clinton Foundation and the CEO of the Jamaica-based telecom firm Digicel, to fly relief supplies into Port-au-Prince and get employees of his company out.  But when O’Brien couldn’t get access to land in Port-au-Prince “through conventional channels” he turns to long-time Clinton aide Doug Band for help.  Shortly thereafter, the request was elevated to the State Department in an email with the subject line “Close friend of the Clintons.” 

    “This WJC VIP just called again from Jamaica to say Digicel is being pushed by US Army to get comms back up but is not being cleared by [the U.S. government] to deploy into Haiti to do so,” Desai wrote in an email with the subject line “Close friend of Clintons.”

     

    Later, O’Brien writes to longtime Clinton aide Doug Band to express frustration. “We’re finding it impossible to get landing slots,” he says. “I’m sorry to bother you but I am not making any progress through conventional channels.”

     

    Band tasks Desai to “pls get on this,” telling O’Brien, “Never a bother.”

     

    Desai then turns to Klevorick to help “a friend of President Clinton,” and the request is pushed up the chain of command to USAID officials organizing the relief effort.

    Of course, we have no doubt that these scandalous revelations, like many others circling the Clinton campaign at the moment, will quickly be brushed under the carpet so the mainstream media can go back to focusing on Trump’s “accusers”.

  • 'Philanthropist' George Soros Set To Make A Killing From Europe's 'Forced Migration'

    Authored by Sam Gerrans, originally posted op-ed via RT.com,

    The philanthropist George Soros recently published a letter in the Wall Street Journal entitled, 'Why I’m Investing 500 million USD in Migrants'. In this article, I will be looking at that letter and separating what it means from what it appears to say.

    Soros' letter begins: “The world has been unsettled by a surge in forced migration. Tens of millions of people are on the move, fleeing their home countries in search of a better life abroad. Some are escaping civil war or an oppressive regime; others are forced out by extreme poverty, lured by the possibility of economic advancement for themselves and their families.”

    This is quite true. And Soros should know since his think tank is fully on board with that “forced migration”. He has either initiated it or facilitated it and, according to Viktor Orban, Prime Minister of Hungary (which is presently holding a referendum on whether to accept migrant quotas as demanded by the EU), as quoted by Bloomberg: “His name is perhaps the strongest example of those who support anything that weakens nation states, they support everything that changes the traditional European lifestyle […] These activists who support immigrants inadvertently become part of this international human-smuggling network.”

    Soros-backed activists are at the center of that network.

    Soros continues: “Our collective failure to develop and implement effective policies to handle the increased flow has contributed greatly to human misery and political instability—both in countries people are fleeing and in the countries that host them, willingly or not. Migrants are often forced into lives of idle despair, while host countries fail to reap the proven benefit that greater integration could bring.”

    I have touched on Soros’ psychological peculiarities elsewhere; his narcissistic traits notwithstanding, I shall assume he is not using the royal “we”. That granted, about whom is he speaking when he talks of “Our collective failure to develop and implement effective policies”? If about governments, we should remember that he is elected to no nation’s government, nor has he ever been.

    That does not prevent him, however, from meddling in their internal affairs and supporting insurrections such as so-called Color Revolutions, including in Georgia and Ukraine, and whipping up chaos via BLM in the US.

    He also famously attacked the British pound, making himself a billion dollars.

    He wishes the reader to assume inclusion by his use of “our”. But we are not included; we are simply being told what is to happen.

    He then writes of “the proven benefit that greater integration could bring”. This is almost a rhetorical conundrum; he and his lawyers expect – not without reason – that most people will provide their own color to what the words on the page say. He claims proof but provides none – and that is a major omission given that we are expected to entrust our entire cultural and economic future to his assertions.

    Many countries, including Japan, China, UAE, Israel and Singapore, are extremely careful to whom they grant citizenship. If the benefits Soros claims were proven, surely they would be on board, too.

     

     

    To continue: “Governments must play the leading role in addressing this crisis by creating and sustaining adequate physical and social infrastructure for migrants and refugees. But harnessing the power of the private sector is also critical.

    Recognizing this, the Obama administration recently launched a “Call to Action” asking U.S. companies to play a bigger role in meeting the challenges posed by forced migration. Today, private-sector leaders are assembling at the United Nations to make concrete commitments to help solve the problem.”

    Soros, naturally, does not blush at telling us what our governments “must” do.

    The term "forced migration" is clever mind hook. You may be sure that it was worked on for hours and many alternatives discarded. Its power lies in the fact that it implies both helplessness in the face of an unstoppable external force and inevitability of result – while at the same time disregarding causes.

    If anyone still cares, the causes include: attacks by the US and Nato on countries which have done them no harm; Angela Merkel’s open invitation to the third world to move to Europe; material and informational support from Soros-funded organizations.

    Soros continues: “In response, I have decided to earmark $500 million for investments that specifically address the needs of migrants, refugees and host communities. I will invest in startups, established companies, social-impact initiatives and businesses founded by migrants and refugees themselves. Although my main concern is to help migrants and refugees arriving in Europe, I will be looking for good investment ideas that will benefit migrants all over the world.”

    I will translate: “Now that the inflow of immigrants has been set up, I am going to invest $500 million to make the process unstoppable, endless and self-funding, and make a lot of money for myself at the same time. And since this is dressed in the language of compassion, there is nothing you can say against it.”

    Back to Soros’ letter: “This commitment of investment equity will complement the philanthropic contributions my foundations have made to address forced migration, a problem we have been working on globally for decades and to which we have dedicated significant financial resources.”

    Just remove the words 'philanthropic' (which does not mean at the elite level what you think it means) and realize that 'address' means 'facilitate' to Soros, and you will understand this sentence correctly; this is a carefully crafted statement of policy.

    He continues: “We will seek investments in a variety of sectors, among them emerging digital technology, which seems especially promising as a way to provide solutions to the particular problems that dislocated people often face. Advances in this sector can help people gain access more efficiently to government, legal, financial and health services. Private businesses are already investing billions of dollars to develop such services for non-migrant communities.

    This is why money now moves instantaneously from one mobile wallet to another, drivers find customers by using only a cellphone, and how a doctor in North America can see a patient in Africa in real time. Customizing and extending these innovations to serve migrants will help improve the quality of life for millions around the world.

    All of the investments we make will be owned by my nonprofit organization. They are intended to be successful—because I want to show how private capital can play a constructive role helping migrants—and any profits will go to fund programs at the Open Society Foundations, including programs that benefit migrants and refugees.”

    Thus, anyone who wishes to will be able to plug into the system you and your families have been paying into all your lives and access its main arteries with nothing more than a mobile phone. Soros, meanwhile, makes a load more money which he can then plough into the very organizations which will make sure the inflow of migrants never stops.

    Soros goes on to claim: “As longtime champions of civil society, we will be focused on ensuring that our investments lead to products and services that truly benefit migrants and host communities.”

    Leaving what Soros may mean by 'civil society', I turn to his use of 'benefit'; benefit according to whom? According to George Soros – a man who destabilizes sovereign states as part of his modus operandi.

    Soros concludes: “We will also work closely with organizations such as the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and the International Rescue Committee to establish principles to guide our investments. Our goal is to harness, for public good, the innovations that only the private sector can provide.

    I hope my commitment will inspire other investors to pursue the same mission.”

    What this means in English is: “The fix is in, and now all you smaller fish further down the food chain can make a nice buck off the gravy train of selling your countries out because if this weren’t a sure thing, I wouldn’t be in it.”

    This is cultural- and ethnic-cleansing in a business suit; it is the de facto usurpation of the nation state as a social construct for the peoples of Europe as part of a multi-purpose war – one designed to destroy oil-rich states and any state with no central bank, while simultaneously collapsing sovereign states.

    However, my point here is not the mass immigration – although with the inevitable, eventual annihilation of the middle class in Soros’ “host countries” there will be nowhere for genuine refugees to go; it is that we have taxation without even the fig leaf of representation so long as men like Soros can openly create and dictate policy.

  • New Reuters Poll Shows That 70% Of Republicans Think The Election Is Rigged

    This morning, Julian Assange offered a chilling and succinct assessment of the 2016 U.S. election, namely, that there is, in fact, no election but rather just an illusion of democracy that has been usurped by a corrupt political ruling class.

     

    Certainly, new polling data from Reuters/Ipsos would seem to support that thesis.  A new poll of 1,192 Americans, conducted by Reuters, found that if Hillary wins only 50% of republicans would accept her presidency as legitimate while 70% would attribute her victory to voter fraud and/or vote rigging of some type.  Moreover, only 20% of republicans surveyed felt that the final vote tallies would be accurate. 

    Only half of Republicans would accept Clinton, the Democratic nominee, as their president. And if she wins, nearly 70 percent said it would be because of illegal voting or vote rigging, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Friday.

     

    Conversely, seven out of 10 Democrats said they would accept a Trump victory and less than 50 percent would attribute it to illegal voting or vote rigging, the poll showed.

     

    For example, nearly eight out of 10 Republicans are concerned about the accuracy of the final vote count. And though generally they believe they will be able to cast their ballot, only six out of 10 are confident their vote will be counted accurately.

    Obviously, this data is fairly alarming, to say the least, but not terribly surprising in light of the staggering, systemic corruption recently exposed through WikiLeaks and the ongoing Congressional review of the FBI’s investigation into Hillary’s private email server…not mention DNC operatives openly talking about committing massive election fraud on undercover Project Veritas videos and working behind the scenes to incite violence at Republican rallies.  For those of you who still haven’t seen the videos, they’re worth a look.

    The following video takes a look behind the scenes of the DNC’s efforts to incite violence at Trump rallies:

     

    And this one provides an excellent tutorial on how to commit voter fraud on a massive scale:

     

    Given the exposure of mass corruption it should hardly be surprising that the “level of concern and mistrust in the system, especially among Republicans, is unprecedented,” as a professor at the University of New Mexico told Reuters, but apparently it is.

    “Republicans are just more worried about everything than Democrats,” said Lonna Atkeson, a professor at the University of New Mexico and head of the Center for the Study of Voting, Elections, and Democracy.

     

    Atkeson said the level of concern and mistrust in the system, especially among Republicans, is unprecedented.

     

    “I’ve never seen an election like this. Not in my lifetime. Certainly not in modern history.” The difference, she said, is Trump. “It has to be the candidate effect.”

     

    She worries that the lack of trust is dangerous. It is one thing to not trust government, but quite another to doubt the election process. “Then the entire premise of democracy comes into question,” she said.

    What we find far more shocking is that somehow the American electorate’s acceptance of mass corruption is split along party lines rather than being universally unacceptable. 

  • "Make A Wish List" Russia Tells Duterte, As New Asian Axis Forms

    Yesterday, when Philippine president Duterte finally took the plunge to announce his “separation”  from the US (even if his government has backtracked somewhat today), he said that not only would he “realign” himself in China’s ideological flow but, in a nuance that was missed by many, said that “I will also go to Russia to talk to (President Vladimir) Putin and tell him that there are three of us against the world – China, Philippines and Russia. It’s the only way.”

    To be sure, an offical axis between China, Russia and a nation that until recently was a core US ally in the Pacific Rim – whose loss would be a huge slap in the face of Obama and whoever replaced him as president – would be music to Putin’s ears, which is why just minutes after Philippine president announced his stunning separation from the US, Russia’s ambassador to the country promptly said Moscow is ready to provide assistance to and fully cooperate with Manila.

    “Formulate your wish list. What kind of assistance do you expect from Russia and we will be ready to sit down with you and discuss what can and should be done,” Russian Ambassador Igor Khovaev told GMA News on Friday. He then went on to state that Russia is open to working with the Philippines in “any area, any field of possible cooperation.”

    The ambassador assured the news outlet that Moscow would not “interfere with the domestic affairs of a sovereign state,” and that the “true Russia” is much different than the one portrayed in Hollywood films. Khovaev added that the Philippines and Russia “deserve to know each other much, much better.”

    The aggresive, if diplomatic brownnosing continued, when the ambassador also said that Duterte impressed Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev during a meeting in Laos last month, and that Moscow supports the leader’s fight against illegal drugs and criminality. In short, he said everything that Durterte wanted to hear just to make sure the Chinese-Russian-Philippino axis takes hold.

    For its part, the Philippines’ budget minister announced that his country is open to all forms of assistance, but will choose what is in the “best interest of the country,” Reuters reported. This could also include yet another U-turn, and prompt return to the safety of being a US puppet. Which is why on Friday, the Philippines’ trade minister, Ramon Lopez, told CNN that the leader “wasn’t talking about separation” from the United States. Although Duterte explicitly stated that the Philippines would be separating from the US economically, Lopez said that “in terms of economic [ties], we are not stopping trade, investment with America. The president specifically mentioned his desire to strengthen further the ties with China and the ASEAN region, which we have been trading with for centuries.”

    He explained that the Philippines was just “breaking being too much dependent on one side…but we definitely won’t stop the trade and investment activities with the West, specifically the US.”

    The US embassy in the Philippines called Duterte’s remarks “troubling rhetoric” prior to Lopez’s conciliating remarks. “We’ve seen a lot of this sort of troubling rhetoric recently, which is inexplicably at odds with the warm relationship that exists between the Filipino and American people and the record of important cooperation between our two governments,” the US embassy press attaché in Manila, Molly Koscina, told Reuters on Friday.

    “We have yet to hear from the Philippine government what Duterte’s remarks on ‘separation’ might mean, but it is creating unnecessary uncertainty,” she added.

    If Russia is successful in closing the loop on the latest, and most novel regional power axis yet, Koscina will be waiting for a long time.

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Today’s News 21st October 2016

  • Unraveling The Aleppo / Mosul Riddle

    Submitted by Pepe Escobar via Stratgic-Culture.org,

    There’s no question Baghdad needs to take back Mosul from ISIS/ISIL/Daesh. It could not do it before. In theory, the time is now.

    The real question is the conflicting motivations of the large “who’s who” doing it; the Iraqi Army’s 9th Division; the Kurdish Peshmerga, under the baton of wily, corrupt opportunist Barzani; Sunni tribal lords; tens of thousands of Shi’ite militias from southern Iraq; operational “support” from US Special Forces; “targeted” bombing by the US Air Force; and lurking in the background, Turkish Special Forces and air power.

    Now that’s a certified recipe for trouble.

    Much like Aleppo, Mosul is – literally – the stuff of legend. The successor of ancient Nineveh, settled 8000 years ago; former capital of the Assyrian Empire under Sennacherib in the 7th century B.C.; conquered by Babylon in the 6th century B.C.; a thousand years later, annexed to the Muslim empire and ruled by the Umayyads and the Abbasids; the key hub, from the 11th to the 12th century, of the Atabegs medieval state; a key Ottoman hub in a 16th century post-Silk Road spanning the Indian Ocean all the way to the Persian Gulf, the Tigris valley, Aleppo and Tripoli in the Mediterranean.

    After WWI, everyone craved Mosul – from Turkey to France. But it was the Brits who managed to dupe France into letting Mosul be annexed to the British Empire’s brand new colony: Iraq. Then came the long Arab nationalist Ba’ath party domination. And afterwards, Shock and Awe and hell; the US invasion and occupation; the tumultuous Shi’ite-majority government of Nouri al-Maliki in Baghdad; and the ISIS/ISIL/Daesh takeover in the summer of 2014.

    Mosul’s historic parallels could not but have a special flavor. That 11th/12th century medieval state happened to have roughly the same borders of Daesh’s phony “Caliphate” – incorporating both Aleppo and Mosul. In 2004, Mosul was de facto ruled by disgraced, failed “presidential material” Gen. David Petraeus. Ten years later, after Petraeus’s phony “surge”, Mosul was ruled by a phony Caliphate born in a US prison near the Kuwaiti border.

    Since then, hundreds of thousands of residents fled Mosul. The population may be as much as halved compared to the original 2 million. That’s a mighty lot to be properly “liberated”.

    Aleppo “falls”

    The hegemonic narrative about the ongoing Battle of (East) Aleppo is that an “axis of evil” (as coined by Hillary Clinton) of Russia, Iran and “the Syrian regime” is relentlessly bombing innocent civilians and “moderate rebels” while causing a horrendous humanitarian crisis.

    In fact, the absolute majority of these several thousand-strong “moderate rebels” is in fact incorporated and/or affiliated with Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (Conquest of Syria Front), which happens to be none other than Jabhat al-Nusra, a.k.a. al-Qaeda in Syria, alongside a smatter of other jihadi groups such as Ahrar al-Sham (Al-Nusra’s goals – and who supports them – are fully documented here).

    Meanwhile, few civilians remain trapped in eastern Aleppo – arguably no more than 30,000 or 40,000 out of an initial population of 300,000.

    And that brings us to the crux of the matter explaining the Pentagon sabotage of the Russia-US ceasefire; those fits of rage by Samantha Batshit Crazy Power; the non-stop spin that Russia is committing “war crimes”.

    If Damascus controls, apart from the capital, Aleppo, Homs, Hama and Latakia, it controls the Syria that matters; 70% of the population and all the important industrial/business centers. It’s practically game over. The rest is a rural, nearly empty back of beyond.

    For the headless chicken school of foreign policy currently practiced by the lame duck Obama administration, the ceasefire was a means to buy time and rearm what the Beltway describes as “moderate rebels”. Yet even that was too much for the Pentagon, which faces a determined Syria/Iran/Russia alliance fighting all declinations of demented Salafi-jihadis, whatever their terminology, and committed to keep a unitary Syria.

    So reconquering the whole of Aleppo has to be the top priority for Damascus, Tehran and Moscow. The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) will never have enough military to reconquer the rural, ultra hardcore Sunni back of beyond. Damascus may also never reconquer the Kurdish northeast, the embryonic Rojava; after all the YPG is directly backed by the Pentagon. Whether an independent Rojava will ever see the light of day is an interminable future issue to be solved.

    The SAA, once again, is tremendously overextended. Thus, the method to reconquer East Aleppo is indeed hardcore. There is a humanitarian crisis. There is collateral damage. And this is only the beginning. Because sooner or later the SAA, supported by Hezbollah and Iraqi Shi’ite militias, will have to reconquer East Aleppo with boots on the ground as well – supported by Russian fighter jets.

    The heart of the matter is that the former “Free Syrian Army”, absorbed by al-Qaeda in Syria and other Salafi-jihadis, is about to lose East Aleppo. Regime change and/or “Assad must go” – the military way – in Damascus is now impossible. Thus the utter desperation exhibited by the Pentagon’s Ash “Empire of Whining” Carter, neocon cells implanted all across lame duck Team Obama, and their hordes of media shills.

    Enter Plan B; the Battle of Mosul.

    Fallujah remixed?

    The Pentagon plan is deceptively simple; erase any signs of Damascus and the SAA east of Palmyra. And this is where the Battle of Mosul converges with the recent Pentagon attack on Deir Ezzor. Even if we have an offensive in the next few months against Raqqa – by the YPG Kurds or even by Turkish forces – we still have a “Salafist principality” from eastern Syria to western Iraq all mapped up, exactly as the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) was planning (dreaming?) in 2012.

    London-based Syrian historian Nizar Nayouf, as well as unnamed diplomatic sources, have confirmed that Washington and Riyadh closed a deal to let thousands of phony Caliphate jihadis escape Mosul from the west, as long as they head straight to Syria. A look at the battle map tells us that Mosul is encircled from all directions, except west.

    But what about Sultan Erdogan in all this? He’s been spinning that Turkish Special Forces will enter Mosul just as they entered Jarablus in the Turkish-Syrian border; without firing a shot, when the city will be cleaned of jihadis.

    Meanwhile, Ankara is preparing its spectacular entrance in the battlefield, with Erdogan in full regalia shooting at random. For him, “Baghdad” is no more than “an administrator of an army composed of Shi’ites”; and the YPG Kurds “will be removed from the Syrian town of Manbij” after the Mosul operation. Not to mention that Ankara and Washington are actively discussing the offensive against Raqqa, as Erdogan has not abandoned his dream of a “safe zone” of 5,000 km in northern Syria.

    In a nutshell; for Erdogan, Mosul is a sideshow. His priorities remain a fractured, fragmented Syria, “safe zone” included; and to smash the YPG Kurds (while working side by side with the Peshmerga in Iraq).

    As far as the US Plan B is concerned, Hezbollah’s Sheikh Nasrallah has clearly seen through the whole scheme; “The Americans intend to repeat the Fallujah plot when they opened a way for ISIL to escape towards eastern Syria before the Iraqi warplanes targeted the terrorists’ convoy.” He added that “the Iraqi army and popular forces” must defeat ISIS/ISIL/Daesh in Mosul; otherwise, they will have to chase them out across eastern Syria.

    It's also no wonder that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has also clearly seen The Big Picture: “As far as I know, the city is not fully encircled. I hope it’s because they simply couldn’t do it, not because they wouldn’t do it. But this corridor poses a risk that Islamic State fighters could flee from Mosul and go to Syria.”

    It’s clear Moscow won’t sit idly by if that’s the case;“I hope the US-led coalition, which is actively engaged in the operation to take Mosul, will take it into account.”

    Of course Mosul – even more than Aleppo – poses a serious humanitarian question.

    The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) estimates as many as 1 million people may be affected. Lavrov goes straight to the point when he insists “neither Iraq nor its neighbors currently have the capacity to accommodate such a large number of refugees, and this should have been a factor in the planning of the Mosul operation.”

    It may not have been. After all, for the “US-led” (from behind?) coalition, the number one priority is to ensure the phony Caliphate survives, somewhere in eastern Syria. Over 15 years after 9/11, the song remains the same, with the war on terra the perennial gift that keeps on giving.

  • "Dear Janet"? – China Devalues Most Since August, Yuan Tumbles To Lowest Since Sept 2010

    For the 10th day of the last 11, onshore yuan has weakened against the dollar. A 0.35% devaluation of the Yuan fix – the most since August – catching down to offshore Yuan's weakness, suggests (for now) PBOC policy is 'allowing' the drop and perhaps sending yet another 'turmoil-induing' message to The Fed as their hawkishness grows.

    Since the start of Golden Week, yuan has plunged…

     

    Plunging Yuan back near pre-peg-break levels from Sept 2010…

     

    Sending a message?

  • David Rosenberg Calls For A Multi-Trillion, "Helicopter Money" Stimulus Package

    With the inherent weakness in US GDP and the rising probability of a recession (two weeks ago Bank of America modeled that the next recession would likely start roughly one year from now), Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg thinks that with monetary options exhausted it will take a fiscal boost in the trillions of dollars to kickstart the economy. These issues were discussed in an extended interview with Real Vision TV, where the chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff proposed some radical policies to engineer the growth needed in nominal income. 

    His ideas, some of which can be seen here in a clip of the interview, include helicopter money attached to a $2 trillion perpetual bond, massive infrastructure spending and measures to tackle the $1 trillion student debt load that has seriously hamstrung the economy.

    Here are some of the interview highlights:

    Doing the Same Thing Over Again and Expecting a Different Outcome

    Whether the US will in fact experience the technical definition of a recession is a matter of fervent debate, with the odds something like 20%-30%, according to Rosenberg (60% according to Deutsche Bank), but with growth averaging around 1%, there is no doubt the economy is weak.

    “There are some people saying a recession is here right now,” Rosenberg says, “I don’t think that we meet those conditions yet. But people say, well, look. Twelve months in a row of negative year on year industrial production, that’s never happened outside recession, check. We’ve had now going into six quarters of profit contraction, year over year. That’s only happened in the context of a recession, check. I mean, all that is true, but so much of this has been related to the oil shock that we had.

    Rosenberg’s problem with monetary policy, now in its 7th year of unorthodox experimentation, is that it has become a weak antidote to structural problems in the economy (even if it is still quite potent at boosting financial asets). Fiscal policy on the other hand, if constructed right, could be the answer due to its very powerful multiplier impact. “I can’t say that I know for sure, but it’s the old Einstein adage about the definition of insanity,” Rosenberg said. “And we’re finding that we’re really– if we’re not hitting the wall on monetary policy, we’re certainly seeing classic economics 101 of the law of diminishing returns.”

    In terms of infrastructure spending, he said that one lesson from recent history and the Great Recession is that you’ve got to have the credibility to convince people that this is going to be permanent and not temporary, in terms of the impact on the economy. “So it can’t be transitory. It’s got to be very big. With interest rates as low as they are, there’s certainly the capacity. I mean, you’ve got a lot of governments around the world issuing 50 or 100-year bonds. So this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to borrow money.”

    A Couple of Trillion Dollars of Helicopter Money

    While companies have been taking advantage of these conditions to borrow money, the funds have not been invested in the real economy. Share buybacks have become more popular, while personal savings rates have increased amid the economic uncertainty. This all boils down to a big case for government spending, with monetary policy joining forces with fiscal policy in the form of helicopter money.

    “What you do with helicopter money is you finance it off the central bank’s balance sheet because we’re talking doing something very dramatic to reflate the economy,” Rosenberg said. “It’s not a few hundred billion dollars. It’s a couple of trillion…I know I’ll get accused of bailing out the sinners, but, my lord, we’ve already done that. I mean, nobody went to jail.”

    One of the things holding the economy back is the $1 trillion student debt load, which he said has left 35% of males aged 18 to 34 living with mom and dad, not getting jobs and not becoming first time home buyers. Employment growth for the 65s and over is 7%, meanwhile, as the aging boomers have to work longer because they didn’t save enough for retirement. 

    “Helicopter money is QE plus where, say, the treasury issues a perpetual– call it, like, a century bond, a $2 trillion bond on the Fed’s balance sheet. And so when that bond matures, it’s, like, we’re all dead in the long run at that point. And then the Treasury can use that money to stimulate growth.

    The beauty of this idea, according to Rosenberg is that you don’t have to go through Congress, with such difficulty in achieving corporate or personal tax reform.  “It would lead to a permanent increase in the monetary base. Inflation expectations would go up, which means that real interest rates would go negative. And the theory is that that would provide a bigger thrust towards getting what we all want, which is sustainable and accelerating nominal income growth.

    Real Risk of Fed Mistakes or Trump Trade War

    Sustainable and accelerating nominal GDP is certainly what’s required while the risk persists that we could be shocked into recession, or the Fed could make a mistake in raising interest rates too aggressively.

    “That’s what happened in December of last year. They raised rates 25 basis points, but the overall financial tightening, in terms of what it meant for the dollar or in credit spreads and the stock market, it was really, like, 75 basis points of tightening. And the next thing you know, the economy slows to stall speed.

    Another concern for investors is the prospect of a Trump presidency, bringing with it the potential start of a trade war. That could provide the sort of exogenous shock to cause the economy to go into recession, Rosenberg stated, noting that historically all the recessions in the post war period have been created by the Fed.

    The problem is that when you have the economy running on average 1% growth, or 1% plus, which is not a big cushion. And so, you know, it’s a complicated question to try and handicap a recession on us right now. There’s a lot of people out there that are convinced that a recession is coming.”

    To watch the full interview with David Rosenberg, visit Real Vision TV.  You can access this and many more interviews with a free trial. 

    * * *

    Oh, if Rosenberg’s idea gets traction – and execution –  which it will eventually, as we have said since our first days in 2009, buy lots and lots of gold.

  • For The First Time In 2016, Junk Bond Defaults Are Decelerating

    Earlier this week, we pointed out that we have now anniversaried the low print of oil and gas prices from 2015, and going forward the “base effect” will kick in, sending headline inflation higher, and maybe even sharply higher if oil continues its ascent into the Vienna OPEC meeting. Perhaps an even more interesting base effect was pointed out earlier today by Goldman, which points out that after climbing in virtually linear fashion all year, corporate defaults – particularly in the energy sector – have started to decline for the first time.

    As readers will recall, going into the year, many market participants expressed concerns about the outlook for defaults and downgrades. The fear was that the weak state of corporate balance sheets could cause defaults and downgrades in the Energy and Metals and Mining sectors to spill over into the broader market, especially if corporations continue to struggle to generate organic growth. And while this story is certainly not over yet, it appears that at lest for the time being between the latest – and biggest yet – burst in global central bank liquidity, and rising oil prices, even the most inefficient and leveraged companies appear to have gotten a reprieve for the moment, or as Goldman puts it, “beyond the limited contagion to the broader market, there is also mounting evidence that a gradual recovery in HY defaults and downgrades within commodities-exposed sectors is underway.”

    What this means is that as the chart below shows, for the first time this year, HY defaults have decelerated, especially amongst Metals and Mining and Energy issuers where default risk has been heavily concentrated.

    HY ex-Energy default rate at post-crisis lows, limited spillover
    12-month trailing issuer-weighted HY ex-Energy and Metals and Mining default rate

    The 12-month trailing default rate declined to 5.40% in September after climbing through most of 2016 and peaking at 5.71% in August, according to issuer-weighted data collected from Moody’s. And with commodities sectors accounting for nearly three quarters of the total defaulted debt over the past year, the improvement in the Energy and Metals and Mining default trend remains central to the gradual recovery for the HY market overall. In fact, not a single Metals and Mining issuer has defaulted since May, while the monthly default frequency has also slowed down meaningfully for Energy issuers since July, as shown in the next chart below.

    As Goldman puts it, “this is a welcome change after defaults amongst Energy producers escalated with rapid intensity from 1.27% at the beginning of 2015 to all-time highs at 29% in August, when using monthly-refreshed cohorts.” And now, the default cycle is shifting back into reverse, at least until the next and perhaps bigger oil price shock.

    It is, however, very bad news for Saudi Arabia and OPEC, as it means that the peak balance sheet pressure facing US shale companies has now passed, and together with those companies which have restructured, and come out of bankrupty without a debt overhang, there is now a smooth runway for much more crude production in the coming months, something which will lead to even greater record output in the near future and ultimately – once supply and demand again matter – far lower prices and the cycle can begin afresh.

  • US 'Relocated' ISIS Terrorists Out Of Iraq, Into Syria To Fight Assad

    Submitted by Vaughan Famularo via TheDuran.com,

    As the Iraqi military with US support closes in on Mosul it is becoming clear that the US plan is to transfer the ISIS troops defending the city to Syria as part of the regime change plan there.

    The Russian news media RIA Novosti, has revealed that US and Saudi leaders have decided to allow the safe passage of 9000 ISIS terrorists to vacate Mosul in Iraq and, relocate into Syria.

    The surprising information was leaked by an anonymous diplomatic source. It was also claimed that this decision was conditional on the terrorists agreeing to fight Syrian and Russian troops in Palmyra and Deir Ezzor.

    In the past two weeks we have witnessed the chaotic musing within the US Political and diplomatic corps once their impotence was exposed in Syria due to the collapse of the ceasefire and, the resumption of hostilities in Aleppo.

     

    The bedlam and frustration exhibited by Western leaders has been apparent to all with wild claims of possible shooting down of Russian jets in Syria and, the continued ache and longing for the implementation of their, No Fly Zone.

    Despite the turbulent political rumblings and threats, Russia and the government of Syria have steadfastly worked to free eastern Aleppo from the remaining terrorists who are now surrounded there.

    The decision to allow ISIS to flee safely into Syria once again reveals to the world the gloved hand that shepherds and steers these terrorists.

    The bombing of Syrian Army soldiers in Deir Ezzor by US and coalition Jets now appear purposed and calculated rather than an accident claimed by the US.

    To add to the controversy, what was generally unreported in the media was a further attack a few days later that destroyed the last two surviving bridges spanning the Euphrates River.

    Their destruction, will isolate the Syrian forces stationed at Deir Ezzor and, make life more difficult for the Syrian people who are already wearing the burden of six years at war.

    As the ISIS terrorists leave Mosul and travel into Syria their objectives are the recently freed city of Palmyra, and the brave city of Deir Ezzor. Whether their safe passage from Mosul includes US and Saudi cover into Syria remains a mystery.

    Regardless their location in eastern Syria allows their masters the tactical advantage of mobilising these proxy forces at the time of their choosing in their ultimate goal of deposing Syrian President Assad.

  • Jill Stein Slams Hillary Clinton's Foreign Policy As "Scarier Than Trump's"

    Submitted by SM Gibson via TheAntiMedia.org,

    The Green Party nominee for president of the United States, Jill Stein, has begun matter-of-factly speaking out against the foreign policy agenda of one of her political opponents, Hillary Clinton.

    Dr. Stein, who has strongly advocated for a more peaceful approach to U.S. relations in the Middle East — as well as throughout the world — recently took to her Twitter account to boldly state what may come as a shock to many Americans:

    “Hillary Clinton’s foreign policy is much scarier than Donald Trump’s.”

    The presidential candidate also tweeted the words of her running mate, Ajamu Baraka, who said, “It should [be] clear to everyone that a vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote for war.”

     

    Dr. Stein elaborated on her social media statements when asked by a reporter in Texas this week what she felt a Hillary Clinton presidency would look like.

    “Well, we know what kind of Secretary of State she was,” Stein said in her response. “[Hillary] is in incredible service to Wall Street and to the war profiteers. She led the way in Libya and she’s trying to start an air war with Russia over Syria, which means, if Hillary gets elected, we’re kinda going to war with Russia, folks…a nuclear-armed power.” 

    While many Americans act as if one’s disdain for Hillary Clinton and her policies automatically make them a supporter of Donald Trump for president — or vice versa — Stein went on to vocalize her fear of both major party candidates.

    “Who will sleep well with Trump in the White House? But you shouldn’t sleep well with Hillary in the White House either. Fortunately, we live in a democracy and we have more than two deadly choices,” Stein said, referring to herself and Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson.

    Regrettably for Americans, Stein is right about the Democratic nominee. Those concerned about the future of America with someone as erratic as Donald Trump in the Oval Office are justified in their worry, but to believe Hillary is somehow a “better option” is not only a naive assumption — but a reckless one. A vote for Hillary is undoubtedly a conscious vote to go war with a nuclear-armed superpower.

    Still not a believer? Watch the video below and see for yourself:

  • The End State: 5 Triggering Events That Would Place The U.S. Under Martial Law

    Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

    This article was originally published by Jeremiah Johnson at Tess Pennington’s ReadyNutrition.com

    martial-law-2

    As you are probably well aware, the Obama administration would like nothing more than to place the United States under Martial Law.

    Once that is accomplished, the country and people would be locked down and kept under control on the pretext of continuing with the government and/or maintaining the national security of the U.S.

    Let’s take a look at 5 events the administration would be most likely to utilize to reach this end state.

    Note: All of these can occur simultaneously, successively, or individually in any combination at any time: there is no limit to their use or potential to recur!

    1. Economic Meltdown

    Over the course of this past year, we have seen a tremendous amount of volatility in trade (international) and the U.S.’s domestic manufacturing base.  As our fragile economy is based on 75% of consumer spending, any significant downturn that keeps the shoppers home can lead to disastrous reports.  Lower consumer spending means people do not buy goods and services beyond the absolute essentials, and worse: (in the government’s eyes) they hoard money and withdraw their funds from bank accounts.

    The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) can be seen as a key indicator of raw goods and materials transported to manufacturers and consumers via shipping contracts.  As mentioned in previous articles, Hanjinn Container Company, the7th largest container corporation in the world just filed for bankruptcy over the summer.  You can see the BDI fluctuations day by day when you visit http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND.  It has been fluctuating wildly over the past year.

    Deutsche Bank is on the verge of bankruptcy and large banks such as Bank of Americaand J.P. Morgan have been plagued by losses and lawsuits alike.  The unemployment rate is truly about 25% and the “Soviet” style statistics quacked from the radio on “record gains” and “economic improvements” are false and intentionally misleading.  A “Bank Holiday”has already happened in places such as Indianapolis, and when the politicians, bankers, and oligarchs decide, they will pull the plug on a Federal Reserve system of fiat currency that is already an ineffective laughingstock of a smirking world that is steadily returning to the gold standard.  When that Bank Holiday is declared, you can be sure the financial systems will collapse and Martial Law will be waiting in the wings.

    2. Cyberattack

    This one is definitely one of the administration’s favorites.  We’ve been seeing signs of this with the DHS (Department of Homeland Security) and DNI (Director of National Intelligence) letters and statements that the Russian government is hacking into the American electoral and election process.  The “targeting” of the DNC (Democratic National Convention) e-mails was assigned to the Russians and officially the Russian government has been accused by the administration of such, and trying to influence the presidential race on Friday, 10/14/16.

    We also saw on 9/7/16, two days before the 5th North Korean nuclear test, the corporation based in California that monitors North Korean missile launches and nuclear testing was hacked into.  A DoS (Denial of Service) was placed into their computer systems, preventing them from uploading satellite feeds and photos that would have enabled them to monitor the North Korean launch.  That corporation is the Project on Crowdsourced Satellite Imagery.  You can read more about this in the article “DoS Attack Crashes Website Monitoring North Korea’s Nuclear Test Site,” by Eric Niiler of Wired.com.

    If other governments can crash our internet and servers, do you think it is possible that the U.S. government as directed by the Obama administration can do it on its own? 

    When that occurs, cell phones will go down, the computers will go down, the financial markets will be in a turmoil and cease trading, and ATM’s and bank cards will be rendered useless.  Transportation, inventories, shipping, and deliveries will all be thrown into a turmoil and come to a halt.  For an excellent description of this, read Mac Slavo’s article fromSHTFplan.com entitledWhen the Trucking Stops,” that shows how vulnerable our nation’s supply lines are.  Bottom line: if all of this goes down as a result of a cyberattack, Martial Law will immediately follow.

    3. “Unforeseeable/Black Swan” Event

    As of last week, Obama just signed an Executive Order (EO), entitled Executive Order: Coordinating Efforts to Prepare the Nation for Space Weather Events,” signed10/13/2016.  Such an EO could cover meteor strikes, Coronal Mass Ejections (CME’s) from the sun, a comet, or any other space anomaly.  Not a big deal, you may think?  It is a big deal, because here’s the bottom line:

    Who is to prevent Obama from either causing another nation to launch an EMP (Electromagnetic Pulse) weapon, or launching one of his own (U.S.-made weapon), taking down the grid and subsequently blaming it on a CME event/solar storm, courtesy of the sun?

    Other events would include potentially man-made or generated storms, such as earthquakes, hurricanes, or even volcanic activity.  If one scoffs at such, remember all that it would need is a 1 megaton nuclear “kicker” to set off either Yellowstone Caldera or the San Andreas Fault.  Such natural disasters (initiated by man or genuine) usually result in Martial Law at the state level on a regular basis, much less one that is national in scope…that Obama would jump on to inculcate Martial Law.

    4. Nuclear War/EMP Attack

    Any day we could be at war with North Korea, Iran, China, or Russia.  The resulting devastation, whether a full-scale or a limited nuclear war would automatically set in motion the wheels for COG (Continuity of Government), and a declaration of Martial Law.

    Let me close this portion with my caveat:

    World War III will begin with the detonation of an EMP device or weapon over the continental United States, followed by a limited nuclear exchange and then conventional warfare.

    5. Viral or Bacterial Pandemic

    Either naturally-occurring, or man-made.  The CDC (Centers for Disease Control) just inherited a tremendous amount of “police power” over the summer regarding their newfound ability to quarantine individuals or large groups of people on the suspicion of contamination/communicability regarding viral or bacterial pathogens relating to a potential or real pandemic.

    There is an article by Catherine J. Frompovich entitled “ALERT: U.S. CDC Giving Itself Unconstitutional Powers to Round Up and Detain Citizens En masse Anytime, Anywhere and Throw Away the Key,” dated on 9/3/16.  This article details how these police powers were created in the Federal Register as the Proposed Rule “Control of Communicable Diseases” on August 15, 2016 that are now in effect to be found underFederal Register Number: 2016-18103.  Guess what?  That proposed rule is now law, and could easily be utilized to “justify” Martial Law in the U.S. because of a pandemic: naturally-occurring, man-made, or phony.

    In addition to all of these juicy tidbits, the deciding factor is what I refer to as the “IHM,” or “Incredible Human Mob.”  Yes, Civil Unrest is a factor; yet it is not a method but a “sign/symptom,” a “side-effect” of what happens when one of the aforementioned 5 methods are employed.  “In the interests of public safety,” or “to protect the public,” or “to maintain law and order” are the phrases trumpeted by our benevolent and friendly government.

    As Rahm Emmanuel said, “Never let a crisis go to waste,” the very ones who are to be protected (the public) are the ones who create the conditions for civil unrest.  It’s literally a “problem that takes care of itself,” and here’s the bottom line to cover the Civil Unrest factor:

    Using the fake justification “in the interests of the safety of the people,” martial law will be declared to confine, restrict, and control the people…protecting them from…themselves.

    Then come the restrictions to travel, the police state in the streets, at the workplace, and the confiscation of firearms.  Then comes the removal of “dissidents and potential troublemakers,” as well as the curfews, restrictions, and limitations in every facet of our society.  Martial Law is an objective of the Obama administration.  The problem is that he (Obama) cannot just arbitrarily declare it.  The declaration requires a prod, such as one of the 5 methods mentioned.  In those circumstances, he then can suspend our rights under the Constitution and bypass the true laws of the U.S.  Such an end state is his desire.  Such an end state would also mean the end…of the United States.

  • Dead. Voter. Walking.

    Thursday humor?

     

    Source: Townhall.com

  • Wikileaks Taunts Democrats, Tweets "It Has A Surprise In Store" For Tim Kaine And Donna Brazile

    First, earlier this afternoon, Wikileaks surprised observers when its released in addition to the daily trove of Podesta email, a handful of what appear to be emails sent from Obama’s heretofore secret email adress; then, moments ago, in a tweet that suggests the vendetta between Julian Assange – who we now know is being pressured by the Ecuadorian government in its London embassy under notice from the US State Department –  and Democrats has goten serious, Wikileaks tweeted that “we have a surprise in store for Tim Kaine and Donna Brazile.”

    … and then it retweeted NBC reported Kailani Koenig who said that “[Tim] Kaine’s been saying hacked Wikileaks emails might not be accurate, so asked him whether he had any examples or had heard if one wasn’t real”, to which he responded “I read of one example yesterday but I can’t pin down which one it was.”

    * * *

    Prior to tweeting this, the Wikileaks twitter account mocked Hillary’s statement that 17 agencies have confirmed Russia hacked the US when it said that Hillary Clinton’s  “17 US intelligence agencies” include:
    Coast Guard, DEA, Navel Intelligence, Department of Energy, Air Force recon, and then added that “Clinton’s “17 US intelligence agencies” may be the biggest, most immediately disprovable wopper ever intentionally made during a debate.”

    It is now quite clear that it has gotten very personal between Assange and Clinton, and if the latter is elected president in less than 3 weeks, that drone strike on Julian which Hillary does not remember “joking about”, may suddenly materialize.

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Today’s News 20th October 2016

  • East Vs. West Division Is About The Dollar – Not Nuclear War

    Submitted by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    The interesting thing about working in alternative economics is that inevitably you will become the designated buzzkill. You may be presenting the facts on the ground and the reality behind the numbers, but most of what you have to report will not be pleasant. Alternative economists are doomed to be labeled “doom and gloomers.” And that’s okay…

    The truth is what it is, and sometimes it hurts people obsessed with undue positivism and bull market naivety. However, as bad as we seem to be when it comes to a negative outlook, we do not necessarily present the most ugly options on the table.

    There is an undeniable trend by some within the liberty movement to assume a Mad Max-style end game to our ever expanding house of cards. That is to say, they see the only plausible outcome being apocalyptic in nature, and nuclear holocaust fits well within this viewpoint. In many cases, the argument is sometimes presented that WWIII is in the best interests of global elites seeking a catalyst for their so-called “new world order.”

    This is not to say that I don't think WWIII is a possibility; it certainly is.  But I remain rather skeptical of the usefulness of nuclear war for the elites. Primarily because everything they openly claim they hope to accomplish can be accomplished without nukes.

    The narrative of a coming conflict between the East and the West has been boiling steadily as the U.S. election nears its end. Even the mainstream media is insinuating the potential for shots fired. Some believe the results of the election will determine the odds of war. I hold a different position. It seems to me that the rhetoric of East vs. West and nuclear exchange is being exploited as a distraction away from a different but almost equally catastrophic end game — the death of the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency.

    First, let’s be clear; nuclear war does little to serve elitist interests. Consider the fact that globalists have been working diligently since 9/11 to install a vast electronic surveillance infrastructure in major cities around the world. This includes a pervasive video surveillance presence, biometric data collection, facial recognition, voice fingerprinting, etc. This is not only occurring in the U.S. and Europe, but in China and Russia. Vladimir Putin signed the Orwellian “Yarovaya Package” into law in June in Russia putting into motion an electronic surveillance apparatus directly on par with any measures exploited by the NSA. Perhaps ironically, even Edward Snowden, currently living in Russia under asylum, criticized the amendments.

    The point is, an elaborate and costly digital control grid is being built all around us. It makes very little sense for the elites to achieve such a level of full spectrum awareness and then flush it down the tubes in a 1.2 megaton blink of a eye. Keep in mind that a nuclear exchange also includes the targeting of military satellites — everything surveillance worthy will most likely be thoroughly toasted.

    Another issue to consider is the psychological underpinnings of elitism. Elites generally exhibit psychopathy, but it is a psychopathy driven by narcissism rather than nihilism. Narcissists tend to shy away from self destruction and the destruction of the treasures they believe they are entitled to. The elites want total centralization of power and influence, and they want the masses to accept or even demand a system in which globalism becomes sacrosanct. They want the Earth, and they want it nice and pristine for themselves. They might be willing to sacrifice certain appendages of the system, but they are not intent on vaporizing the entire prize.

    Given, psychopaths also do not like to lose. They do have a propensity for attempting to take others down with them if they are on the verge of failure. That said, I think the recent reports of the demise of globalism are greatly exaggerated.

    The narrative of coming world war revolves around certain assumptions. For example, some liberty proponents argue that the success of the Brexit referendum, the Trump campaign and the rise of sovereignty movements are an existential threat to the globalist empire. In their minds, a nuclear war triggered by the elites at this stage makes sense because globalism does appear to be “losing.”

    As I outlined in my last article Global Elites Are Getting Ready To Blame You For The Coming Financial Crash, this is simply not the case. In fact, the rise of conservative and sovereignty movements in the West sets the stage perfectly for the elites to initiate the final act of a world changing fiscal crisis. With these conservative movements in “power,” the ongoing economic collapse can then be blamed on “dangerous populists” rather than the international bankers that created the problem to begin with.

    The globalists are not on the run, they are playing the Hegelian dialectic game as they always have; problem, reaction, solution.

    And, as I have evidenced and outlined in great detail in numerous articles, the “conflict” between East and West is an engineered sham. At the top of the political and financial pyramids of every major nation, including Russia and China, the elites promote globalism and a one world currency under the control of the International Monetary Fund. Putin has openly supported IMF dominance of the global financial structure and the implementation of the SDR as a bridge to a global currency system. Chinese officials have done the same, and as of October, China is a major liquidity amplifier for the SDR. The BRICS bank, which was supposed to be a counterweight to the IMF and World Bank, actually works in collusion with the IMF and World Bank. The bottom line? There is no East versus West, at least not where the elites are concerned.

    The Russians and the Chinese are NOT on our side.  They are not even on their own side. The only legitimate opposition to the globalists is in the form of grassroots movements with very little concrete political influence. Whatever political influence we do gain tends to be quickly co-opted by deceitful measures and false leaders that ultimately serve the elites. Even the Brexit and a Trump presidency are not a real threat because they are functions of a system that the elites control in the absolute, and they would never be allowed to gain traction unless the elites needed scapegoats for a greater economic crisis.

    Our fight has so far been one of disseminating information and countering propaganda; political battles have been rather fruitless. So, again, nuclear war hardly serves the interests of elites under these favorable conditions.

    Nuclear war is also a very poor way of managing the darker goals of globalists. Their desire for substantial population reduction, for example, could be attained far more efficiently through economic collapse and mass starvation rather than the use of missiles and bombs. Food is a better weapon than smashed atoms ever will be. But if the false East/West paradigm is not setting the stage for nuclear war, then what is it being used for?

    As I have examined in the past, the division between East and West far better serves the elites in their effort to slowly but surely unseat the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency and replace it with the SDR basket — the next major step towards a single global currency system and a single global monetary authority.

    Let’s be clear, the globalists are NOT pro-dollar or pro-America. They never have been. In fact the Federal Reserve has been destroying the dollar’s purchasing power since the central bank’s inception. And, by asserting the dollar as the world reserve currency, the Fed has actually placed America in a position of severe financial weakness rather than strength. Our dependency on the dollar’s world reserve status to sustain our living standards is so complete that the loss of that status will indeed crush our country. Our system cannot function without reserve status.

    I’ll break it down even further; through the death of the dollar, the elites not only set in motion the chaos needed to justify total centralization and a world currency alternative, but in the process they also could remove the greatest threat to their control — those millions of American citizens still holding to conservative ideals of sovereignty and personal liberty.

    The East vs. West paradigm creates a perfect rational for the end of the dollar’s reserve status. Just look at the geopolitical trends in motion.

    Saudi Arabia with its vast influence over many OPEC nations is shifting away from the U.S. and building closer ties with Russia and China. The distancing of relations between the U.S. and the Saudis is even being encouraged in the U.S. through the passage of the 9/11 Saudi lawsuit bill. This will inevitably lead to the end of the dollar’s petro-status and, by extension, aid in the end of its world reserve status.

    Turkey is now gravitating towards Russia and away from NATO after the very odd and most likely staged “coup” that has given Erdogan unprecedented room for dictatorship. This new relationship may even include military support from Russia.

    Foreign central banks around the world, including Saudi Arabia and China, are currently liquidating their U.S. treasury holdings at record pace.  The program for "de-dollarization" is already well underway.

    The U.S. overall has also lost considerable goodwill among the peoples of the world (or what little goodwill it had left) in the wake of revelations that it along with allies has essentially instigated the breakdown in Syria and funded militant groups that make up the skeleton of ISIS. The continued function of our involvement in destabilizing Syria has no other benefit to the U.S. except to undermine the image of America. It does not give us increased oil dominance. It does not give us increased regional dominance. In fact, our presence in Syria only continues to harm us and bring us into dangerous proximity with Eastern interests.

    There are people who do benefit from this dynamic — the globalists.

    The U.S. is painted as the bumbling villain of our little story, greedy and blinded by visions of empire. The East is set up as the more rational party, the mediator trying to reason with Western madmen. For the globalists, the death of the dollar, which has been an ongoing project of theirs for decades, can now be completed, and they will receive NO blame whatsoever. History, if it is written by anyone other than liberty champions, will say that the East, not the central bankers, destroyed the dollar’s reserve status because it had to. History will say that we had it coming.

    In the aftermath, the elites hope to come to the rescue as global economic instability erupts with the failure of the dollar system. As they openly admit in The Economist in 1988, the dollar must be replaced by the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights; the new world order needs a great financial reset before it can take root. But, this is a much different methodology from widespread nuclear war.

    Questions arise as to November’s election and how this might affect East vs. West relations. I see no indication that it makes a difference who ends up in the White House as far as the economic result is concerned. As I have stated before, I believe Trump is the most likely candidate. Relations with the East are already in irreversible and engineered decline and even if Trump has good intentions, the globalists will pull the plug on financial support to markets not long after he enters the Oval Office. Eastern nations have been preparing for a break from the dollar for years. They work closely with the IMF. If anything, Trump’s presence will accelerate the reset.

    I think the notions of nuclear war and East vs. West conflagration endure for many reasons. An extreme distaste for Barack Obama has led many liberty proponents to assume that the man will never give up his seat of power. These people do not understand that Obama is nothing more than a Muppet, a middleman with no true influence. The elites do not need him in office to continue their program.

    Others assume that the mere chance of a Trump presidency is so dangerous to the elites that they would rather push the nuclear button than risk it. I think this is a bit naive. As stated in past articles, conservative movements are gaining control of a ship that is already sinking. They are being set up. A Trump win might help the elites. If the U.S. economy and currency collapses under Trump, conservative movements can be blamed. If they collapse under Clinton, the banking cabal will be blamed. It seems clear to me which option better serves elitists.

    A nuclear war is also perhaps subconsciously enticing to some people. The idea that the slate could be wiped clean leaving only the prepared to come out of the smoke and ash to rebuild could in some ways be considered a preferable outcome. Compare that to liberty movements taking the blame for an economic calamity while battling against an encroaching globalist machine, sacrificing for years or possibly decades on the mere chance that we can, through force of will and ingenuity, defeat a well organized empire with an established mass surveillance network and millions of duped citizens on its side.

    Hell, I’m actually an optimist when it comes to our ability to overthrow globalism, but I see no easy way out of this situation. I find it saddening that the coming fight is so frightening to people that they would rather assume a nuclear nightmare is on the way. The slower agony of economic decay and a rebellion against Big Brother may be less appetizing, but in my view, it is unavoidable.

  • Debate Post-Mortem: "Bad Hombres", "Putin Puppets", Chris Wallace Wins "Bigly"

    The debate started with 'no handshakes' once again and while there was no 'dancing' around the ring, a quiet, polite start rapidly turned ugly once the two candidates warmed up. Second Amendment supporting Trump slammed babyslaying Clinton; questions over who was the biggest "puppet"; Trump declined to support election result and threw a "such a nasty woman" comment across the stage.  While it was a close-call between Trump and Hillary, for once we suggest Chris Wallace wins tonight.

     

     

    • *TWITTER SAYS MOST DEBATE CONVERSATION ABOUT TRUMP, 59%-41%
    • *TRUMP HAD 56% SHARE OF FACEBOOK CONVERSATION, CLINTON 44%: STMT

    No Handshake….

    *  *  *

    Round 1 – SCOTUS – Clinton Win

    • Trump subdued, focused on Pro-life, second Amendment, defending constitution
    • Clinton better able to discuss details, knows constitutional court details better.

    Round 2 – IMMIGRATION – Trump Win

    • Trump pushed stronger borders, Clinton focused on "ripping families aprt"
    • Clinton claimed Trump choked on the wall.
    • Clinton pivot to blame Russia for leaks on 'open borders' thrown back in her face.
    • Argument over who is 'puppet'

    Round 3 – THE ECONOMY – Tie

    • Hillary claimed "will add no debt" – which as we know means no growth.
    • Trump slams NAFTA, more of the same Obama policies with Clinton

    Round 4 – FITNESS TO BE PRESIDENT – Tie

    • Sexual harrassment allegations denied aggressively.
    • Wikileaks documents and pay-to-play hard to argue with.
    • Why does Hillary take Saudi money when they kill gay people?
    • Trump focused on donors/special interests when Hillary brought up taxes.
    • "Rigged" discussion well argued by Trump but Hillary made him look 'whiney' and his comment "I will leave you in suspense" did not sound good.

    Round 5 – FOREIGN HOTSPOTS – Trump Win

    • Hillary claims she will defeat ISIS, Trump attacks by pointing out 'element of surprise'.
    • Hillary eloquent, Trump less hawkish.
    • Using WikiLeaks, Trump lands one of his cleanest blows of the night. "John Podesta said some horrible things about you. And he was right."

    Round 6 – NATIONAL DEBT – Trump Win (Hillary un-credible)

    • Focused on Obamacare costs to start
    • Clinton tax wealthy but no growth
    • Trump "massive tax cuts"
    • Biggest lie of the night Clinton: "I pay for everything I'm proposing. I do not add a penny to the national debt."

    Round 7 – CLOSING STATEMENT – Tie

    • *CLINTON, IN CLOSING ARGUMENT, SAYS WANTS TO BENEFIT ALL IN U.S.
    • *TRUMP SAYS CLINTON WIN WOULD BE FOUR MORE YEARS OF OBAMA PLANS

    Finally, Mexican Peso settled it…

     

    But then someone panic bid Peso to 'prove' Hillary won?

     

    But of course, just as we started the day…

    *  *  *

    1. SCOTUS

    Second Amendment

    • *CLINTON SAYS CENTRAL ELECTION ISSUE WHAT KIND OF COUNTRY TO BE
    • *SUPREME COURT NEEDS TO SIDE WITH U.S. PEOPLE, NOT COS.:CLINTON
    • *CLINTON: MY COURT NOMINEES WOULD STAND UP TO THE `POWERFUL'
    • Clinton mind-blowingly talked about dark-money in politics and its effects on the election.

    Clinton: "There's no doubt that I respect the Second Amendment."

     

     

    Clinton: "I respect the tradition of gun ownership," but we must have "reasonable regulation"

     

    Hillary Clinton said she supports the Second Amendment while touting the need for comprehensive reform to the nation's gun laws.

    "I see no conflict between saving people's lives and defending the Second Amendment," she said.

    The Democratic nominee called for comprehensive background checks and closing the gun show lope hole.

    • *TRUMP SAYS SUPREME COURT IS `WHAT IT'S ALL ABOUT'
    • *TRUMP SAYS SUPREME COURT UNDER CLINTON THREATENS 2ND AMENDMENT
    • *TRUMP: MY JUSTICES WILL BE `PRO-LIFE,' CONSERVATIVE

    Trump: "Justice Ginsburg made some very, very inappropriate statements toward me"

     

     

    Abortion

    • *CLINTON: I WILL DEFEND ROE V WADE, PLANNED PARENTHOOD
    • *CLINTON SAYS TRUMP USING `SCARE RHETORIC' ON ABORTION, HEALTH
    • *TRUMP: ROE V WADE COULD GET OVERTURNED IF HIS JUSTICES ADDED

     

     

    2. IMMIGRATION

    • *TRUMP REITERATES ARGUMENT FOR STRONGER BORDERS TO COUNTER DRUGS

    "There are some bad hombres here and we're going to get 'em out"

     

     

    • *CLINTON SAYS `MAJOR DISAGREEMENTS' WITH TRUMP ON SUPREME COURT
    • *CLINTON ON DEPORTATIONS: I DON'T WANT TO RIP FAMILIES APART
    • *CLINTON SPEAKS ON HOW TO DEAL WITH UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRANTS
    • *CLINTON SAYS TRUMP `CHOKED' IN MEXICO TRIP
    • *CLINTON SAYS TRUMP USED UNDOCUMENTED LABOR TO BUILD TRUMP TOWER

    Clinton attempted to pivot away from being pinned on immigration to raising Russia…

    “You are very clearly quoting from WikiLeaks,” Clinton said. “What is really important about WikiLeaks is that the Russian government has engaged in espionage against Americans. They have hacked American websites, American accounts of private people, of institutions. Then they have given that information to WikiLeaks for the purpose of putting it on the internet. This has come from the highest levels of the Russian government.”
    Clinton called on Trump to reject “Russian espionage.”

     

    Trump shot back: “That was a great pivot off the fact that she wants open borders.”

    Clinton called Trump "a puppet"…

     

    He responded…

     

    • *CLINTON: RUSSIA ESPIONAGE ON ELECTIONS SYSTEM AT HIGHEST LEVELS

     

     

    3. THE ECONOMY

    • *CLINTON: WANT TO HAVE BIGGEST JOBS PROGRAMS SINCE WORLD WAR II
    • *CLINTON: TRUMP'S ECO PLAN COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER RECESSION
    • *TRUMP SAYS CLINTON ECONOMIC PLAN IS A `DISASTER'
    • *TRUMP SAYS U.S. ALLIES SHOULD `PAY UP' FOR DEFENSE COSTS
    • *TRUMP SAYS WOULD RENEGOTIATE NAFTA, IF HE CAN'T WOULD END IT
    • *CLINTON SAYS TRUMP HAS `CROCODILE TEARS' OVER OUTSOURCING
    • *TRUMP: U.S. ECONOMY IS `STAGNANT'; SAYS LAST JOBS REPORT BAD
    • Hillary: "I wont add a penny to the debt"

     

    • *TRUMP TO CLINTON: YOU TALK BUT YOU DON'T GET ANYTHING DONE

    "She totally lied about TPP… she did call it the gold standard"…

     

    "I am going to renegotiate NAFTA"

     

     

     

    4. FITNESS TO BE PRESIDENT

    • *TRUMP ON SEXUAL MISCONDUCT ACCUSATIONS: IT'S ALL LIES, FICTION

    Clinton belittles women…

     

    Clinton: "While I was monitoring the Osama bin Laden raid, he was hosting The Apprentice"…

     

    When Clinton took aim at past violence at Trump's rallies, he shot back by saying "she caused the violence." He's referencing new videos from conservative filmmaker James O'Keefe, whose newly-released hidden camera footage purports to show Democratic operatives plotting chaos at a Trump rally in Chicago. O'Keefe has been accused in the past of using selectively-edited video and duping interviewees.

    • *CLINTON DESCRIBES CLINTON FOUNDATION AS WORLD-RENOWNED CHARITY
    • *CLINTON SAYS SHE'S HAPPY TO COMPARE HER FOUNDATION W/ TRUMP'S

    Clinton Foundation a criminal enterprise…

    •   *TRUMP DECLINES TO SAY IF HE'LL ACCEPT ELECTION RESULT 
    • *TRUMP ON IF HE'LL ACCEPT ELECTION RESULT: I'LL LOOK AT THE TIME 

     

     

    • *CLINTON ON TRUMP NOT SAYING HE'D ACCEPT RESULT: `HORRIFYING'

    Definitely a problem for Trump…

     

     

    5. FOREIGN HOTSPOTS

    • *CLINTON: WON'T BACK U.S. TROOPS IN IRAQ AS OCCUPYING FORCE
    • *TRUMP: WE'LL TAKE MOSUL EVENTUALLY, BUT WHO'S GOING TO GET IT?
    • *TRUMP: IRAN IS TAKING OVER IRAQ, WE'VE MADE IT SO EASY FOR THEM
    • *TRUMP SAYS SYRIA'S ASSAD MUCH SMARTER THAN PEOPLE THOUGHT
    • *TRUMP: IF ASSAD FALLS IN SYRIA, YOU MAY WIND UP WITH WORSE

    Using WikiLeaks, Trump lands one of his cleanest blows of the night. "John Podesta said some horrible things about you. And he was right."

    "Whatever happened to the element of surprise?"

     

    6. NATIONAL DEBT

    Quickly focused on Obamacare costs

    • *OBAMACARE PROBABLY WILL DIE OF ITS OWN WEIGHT, TRUMP SAYS
    • *TRUMP REITERATES CALL TO REPEAL, REPLACE OBAMACARE LAW
    • *CLINTON SAYS WILL `NOT CUT BENEFITS' FROM SOCIAL SECURITY

    And with the biggest lie of the night… Clinton: "I pay for everything I'm proposing. I do not add a penny to the national debt."

  • Trump-Clinton III: The Final Sin-City Showdown – Live Feed

    Following Pence's pounding of Kaine and Trump's trouncing of Clinton in the last two debates, the final showdown promises fireworks.

    Trump's arsenal is full after two weeks of embarrassing documents from WikiLeaks and The FBI, and with the news cycle beginning to lose contact with his sexual harrassment allegations, Clinton (having gone dark for a week) will remain focused on temperament, temperament, temperament.. and the fact that Trump is not a woman.

    Interestingly, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s campaign has asked to change the setup of the pre-debate greetings on Wednesday night, The New York Times reports…

    At the previous two debates, the spouses of both candidates have met to shake hands. But this time around, former President Bill Clinton and Melania Trump will enter the debate hall in a way that avoids having the families cross paths.

     

    Two people with direct knowledge of the situation told the Times that the Clinton camp requested the change after the last debate after GOP nominee Donald Trump invited three women who’ve accused Bill Clinton of sexual assault and fourth whose rapist Hillary Clinton was court-appointed to defend in 1975.

    Here are five things that The Hill points out to watch for as the candidates square off beneath the neon lights of the nation’s gambling capital:

    Will they shake hands?

    In a sign of how much disdain the candidates have for one another, Trump and Clinton declined to shake hands as they took the stage at the start of their second debate. Instead, they greeted each other with a cold “hello,” then shuffled to within about 3 feet of one another as they turned to face the audience. Trump was just minutes removed from a press conference with three women who have accused former President Bill Clinton of sexual assault or harassment and one whose rapist Hillary Clinton was court-appointed to defend in 1975. Meanwhile, Clinton was preparing to unload on Trump for his obscene remarks about groping women. The moment was satirized on “Saturday Night Live” over the weekend, in which Alec Baldwin’s Trump and Kate McKinnon’s Clinton circled each other like jiu jitsu fighters, extending their hands for a shake but recoiling before they touched. Advisers to both nominees are surely choreographing the opening moment to ensure their candidate doesn’t come off looking bad. That opening moment could be a sign of how nasty things will get.

    Does Trump have any wild cards left?

    It’s almost a given that Trump, the Republican nominee, will unload on his Democratic rival with everything he has. Women and independents have been fleeing Trump’s campaign, helping Clinton to open up a comfortable lead in recent national polls. The map of battleground states leans strongly in Clinton’s favor, making her the heavy favorite as the clock ticks down to the finish. Trump needs a campaign-altering moment or two if he’s going to change the trajectory of the race with less than three weeks to go before Election Day. The GOP nominee’s press conference with Bill Clinton’s accusers at the last debate was an attempt to rattle Hillary Clinton. It didn’t work.

     

    Since then, Trump has thrown everything he has at Clinton, saying she would be jailed if he wins the White House and demanding they both take a drug test before the debate to see if performance-enhancing chemicals are keeping her competitive. Trump will have his pick of controversies to exploit on Wednesday night, aided by the WikiLeaks email dumps and the release of documents pertaining to the FBI’s investigation of Clinton’s use of a personal email server while she was secretary of State. Does Trump have a new stunt or revelation up his sleeve? Will it matter?

    Does Clinton play it safe or go for the kill?

    Trump is on the ropes. Will Clinton go for the knockout blow on Wednesday night? Polls show that Clinton won the second debate, but some of her supporters were frustrated that she was not more aggressive in going after Trump, who limped in amid backlash over his lewd remarks about women and a civil war in the Republican Party over his candidacy. Clinton might view the debate as her opportunity to vanquish Trump and lay the groundwork for a governing mandate. Trump’s polling weakness has provided the Clinton campaign with an opportunity to expand the map into traditionally red states like Alaska, Georgia, Utah and Arizona. Control of the Senate is a toss-up, and if Trump’s free-fall continues, the Republican majority in the House might be in play, too. The pressure will be on for Clinton not to just win but also to deliver for down-ballot Democrats as they play for seats that seemed out of reach not long ago. That means rolling the dice with an aggressive debate, similar to the one her running mate, Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), tried for in the vice presidential debate. It could mean hitting Trump where he’s weakest by bringing up his female accusers and crude remarks. But that could move against her by provoking Trump to go nuclear on the Clintons’ personal lives.

     

    The aggressiveness backfired on Kaine, showing there is risk in such a strategy. And the WikiLeaks email dump revealed what insiders have long known: Clinton’s inner circle and campaign team are cautious to a fault. They may decide the best course of action is to duck into victory formation and run out the clock with a safe debate performance that seeks to avoid riling Trump.

    Will the moderator make a difference?

    Trump and many conservatives believe the moderators were on Clinton’s side in the first two debates. Veteran NBC newsman Lester Holt opened himself up to criticism for failing to ask Clinton about her private email server or foreign donations to her family’s charitable foundation. And Trump openly warred with the moderators at the second debate, accusing CNN’s Anderson Cooper and ABC News’s Martha Raddatz of allowing Clinton to speak past her allotted time and lashing out at them for cutting his attacks on Clinton short. Those attacks resonated among conservatives, even if Trump ended the last debate with slightly more speaking time than Clinton. Republicans are hopeful that Fox News’s Chris Wallace — who has a solid reputation as a nonpartisan journalist — will make Clinton’s life miserable. Wallace has said he won’t fact-check the candidates in real time — a practice that has been the focal point of fierce debate within reporting circles — leaving the candidates to pick their spots and make a convincing case for their version of the truth on their own. As an anchor at the conservative news outlet, Wallace is more likely to focus on issues that other media outlets are apt to gloss over. Expect him to ask Clinton about an email exchange, revealed by WikiLeaks, in which one of her top aides disparaged Catholicism and Christianity. The newly released documents pertaining to the investigation of Clinton’s personal server will surely lead to a question about Trump’s allegations of “pay-for-play” at the State Department. And the WikiLeaks dump also revealed Clinton’s support for “open borders,” her differing views in public and in private, and a trove of other data points that Fox News has covered with relish. Of course, Wallace was no patsy in the GOP primary debates, so Trump can expect the tough treatment will flow both ways.

    What will their closing arguments be?

    This is it. The third debate is the last time the candidates will be seen by this many people. The first two debates brought between 65 million and 80 million viewers each. For Trump, it’s the best shot for a game-changing moment. For Clinton, it’s an opportunity to seal the deal. Trump has signaled that he will make this a “change” election to the end. The question voters are struggling over is whether Trump will be a responsible agent of change or a reckless danger who will burn the system to the ground. So far, a strong majority of voters view him as the latter, with vast swaths of the electorate saying he is not commander in chief material. Trump must convince voter that he can be trusted as a leader. Clinton’s closing argument is similarly complicated. She is viewed as an untrustworthy and opportunistic career politician — a considerable liability in the year of the outsider. Still, recent polls show Clinton’s base is more energized than it once was, helping her to pull away from Trump. She will be looking to maintain that momentum by giving undecided voters a reason to vote for her, not just against Trump.

    Which guests are they bringing?

    News broke Tuesday night that Trump invited Malik Obama, President Obama’s Kenyan-born half-brother, to be one of his guests for Wednesday’s showdown. Also on Trump’s list is Patricia Smith, mother of Benghazi victim Sean Smith. Smith spoke at the Republican convention in Cleveland this summer, said “I blame Hillary Clinton personally” for the death of her son in the 2012 attacks in Libya. Cited by CBS, campaign CEO Steve Bannon told CNN that Smith and Malik Obama are “just an appetizer,” and that Trump will have other guests who relate to the Clintons’ past.

    One of them could be Leslie Millwee, a former Arkansas reporter who on Wednesday accused Bill Clinton of assaulting her in 1980: BuzzFeed reported that she is attending the debate. However, the Trump campaign would not confirm that Millwee was a guest of Trump’s.

    Clinton’s guest list includes Hewlett Packard CEO Meg Whitman, a longtime Republican and former California gubernatorial candidate who endorsed Clinton earlier this year and has raised money on her behalf. Mark Cuban, the investor and owner of the Dallas Mavericks, will also be in attendance; Cuban also attended the first debate in September as a guest of Clinton’s. Also attending as Clinton’s guests are former NBA player Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, Clinton’s campaign announced Wednesday. Clinton’s other guests include Karla Ortiz, a woman from Nevada born to undocumented parents; Astrid Silva, a DREAMer and immigrant’s rights activist in Nevada; Ryan Moore, a man with a rare form of dwarfism known as spondyloepiphyseal Dysplasia dwarfism; Ofelia Diaz Cardenas, a woman from Mexico who crossed the border illegally in 1999 and now has a work permit; and the mother and teacher of Pvt. Damian Lopez-Rodriguez, a man who served in the U.S. Army in Iraq and was killed while awaiting U.S. citizenship.

    * * *

    Of course, for many there is a far simpler problem: it's the third debate and you still have no idea where your preferred candidate stands on a one given issue? Fear not: the following summary from Goldman breaks it all donw.

    And given that the debate is in the gambling capital of America, WaPo reports a surge in wagers such as if Donald Trump says the word “rigged” five times or more during tonight’s debate, bookies will be paying out. Oddsmakers are even taking bets on whether the presidential candidates will shake hands.

    "Unleash hell"!

    So will we see First-Debate Trump or Second-Debate Trump? Live Feed…

    *  *  *

    Finally, given that the debate is taking place in Las Vegas, the drinking game to make it pallatable to many…

    h/t DebateDrinking.com

    And keep score here…

  • Oklahoma High School Teacher Instructing Students That "To Be White Is To Be Racist, Period"

    It is no great secret that educators in our country tend to skew toward the left side of the political spectrum.  One can barely pick up a newspaper these days without having to read some outrageous story about University administrators caving to the whims of pampered millennials who suffer panic attacks as a result of exposure to the latest “micro-aggressions” or “trigger words.”  In fact, just a few weeks back, we wrote about how San Francisco State was building separate campus housing for African American students because the Black Student Union thought students of color needed a special place where they could “safely live and talk about issues affecting African-Americans” (see “San Francisco State Builds Segregated Dorms Where African-Americans Can “Safely Live And Talk”“).  Who knew that segregation was making a come back as a “progressive” policy?

    But the latest case of liberal educator lunacy, according to EAG News, comes from Norman North High School, in Oklahoma, where a teacher is apparently “teaching” students that “to be white is to be racist, period.”  Since when did pushing extreme progressive rhetoric become part of the high school curriculum?  In the good ole days this kind of insanity was reserved for the liberal elite professors at the university level but we guess those days are over.

    The lecture began with a video about the “Mistreatment of Native Americans” that prompted the student to record the lesson and ended with the teacher’s lecture about racism.

     

    In the video, a man “pulls out this globe with a bottle of white out and marks over a country or a piece of country and puts his name on it,” the student said.

     

    “So he was basically comparing what he had done to the globe to what we did to America,” she said.

     

    “To be white is to be racist, period,” the teacher said in the recording. “Am I racist? I say yea. I don’t want to be. It’s not like choose to be racist, but do I do things because of the way I was raised?”

     

    The student was naturally offended by her teacher labeling her a racist.

     

    “Half of my family is Hispanic so I just felt like, you know, him calling me a racist just because I’m white … I mean, where’s your proof in that,” the girl said. “I felt like he was encouraging people to kind of pick on people for being white.”

    To make matters even worse, a comment issued by the school superintendent implies that no disciplinary action will be taken against the outrageous comments of the teacher in question.  Which is not terribly surprising given that teacher contracts, courtesy of their unions, have become so onerous that teachers basically have to be caught on film cutting off a student’s arm before they can be fired…which is an amazingly “effective” incentive structure.

    Norman Public Schools Superintendent Joe Siano offered a statement to the news site that blamed the teacher, but did not offer any details on what, if any, disciplinary action the teacher would face.

     

    “Racism is an important topic that we discuss I our schools. While discussing a variety of philosophical perspectives on culture, race and ethics, a teacher was attempting to convey to students in an elective philosophy course a perspective that had been shared at a university lecture he had attended,” the statement read.

     

    “We regret that the discussion was poorly handled. When the district was notified of this concern it was immediately addressed. We are committed to ensuring inclusiveness in our schools.”

    So, just to clarify, is the logical conclusion of this thought process that it is technically a “hate crime” for two white people to procreate?

  • Clinton Foundation Insider Makes Stunning Admission: "Bill Is Far More Conflicted Every Single Day"

    For several days now we have been posting about the tensions between Doug Band and Chelsea Clinton (see here, here and here). The whole dispute between the two seemingly started when Chelsea raised concerns over potential conflicts of interest related to Band’s firm, Teneo, which she thought had sought favors from the State Department on behalf of clients, including MF Global.

    But, in the latest batch of WikiLeaks emails, Band escalates the situation to a whole new level by rattling off a litany of other Clinton Foundation conflicts including with Bill Clinton who he says is “far more conflicted every single day in what he does” than Teneo.

    Clinton Foundation

     

    Justin Cooper then decides to pile on by also highlighting Bill’s many conflicts.  Per the email below, Cooper expresses frustration that nothing in the proposed conflicts resolution memo addresses “how wjc’s activities interface with each other or how this structure resolves his own conflicts.”

    Clinton Foundation

     

    Meanwhile, in another email sent just a few days later, Band points out that he negotiated a speaking deal with UBS in which Bill Clinton was paid $150,000 for 6 speeches to be given between 2011 and 2012.  The more interesting part though is that Band says he “could care less if he does them or not“…of course not, because the speeches aren’t really the point now are they?

    Clinton Foundation

     

    The next exchange between Robby Mook, John Podesta and Huma Abedin shows just how much disconnect there is between campaign trail rhetoric and real life.  The emails below, highlight just how far Hillary is willing to go to cater to her large wall street donors while pretending to be fighting for “main street.”  The exchange starts when Clinton campaign manager, Robby Mook, highlights that Bill’s March 15, 2015 speech to Morgan Stanley may be delayed…a delay that Mook would prefer because it corresponds with Hillary’s first day of campaigning in Iowa which Mook argues is just “begging for a bad rollout.”

    But apparently Hillary was more in favor of collecting the speaking fees, as Huma shoots back that “HRC very strongly did not want him to cancel that particular speech.

    Clinton Foundation

     

    The chain continues on as “HRC reiterates her original position” that Bill should move forward with the Morgan Stanley speech despite the potential political consequences in Iowa.  We guess that clears up any doubts on where her true loyalties lie.

    Clinton Foundation

     

    Finally, if there was any doubt left in your mind that the Clinton’s are fighting for the little guy, then it will be promptly eliminated after reading this next email exchange in which two Clinton staffers ponder why Bill refuses to have dinner with small donors.  As Teddy Geoff points out:

    “i don’t understand why the optics of hobnobbing with the rich and powerful are somehow better than the optics of sitting down with a few $5 donors. it seems like the latter is what we ought to be emphasizing, not running away from.”

    But, as pointed out below, the Clinton Foundation has “always been careful about protecting his brand.”  We guess they’re concerned about speaking fees dropping to $45,000 per hour vs. $50,000 per hour if Bill happens to be seen in public with a minimum wage worker?

    Clinton Foundation

  • Has World War 3 Already Started?

    Submitted by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

    It took 3 million soldiers, 3,000 tanks, 7,000 artillery pieces, and 2,500 aircraft…

    “Operation Barbarossa” was the code name for Nazi Germany’s invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941.

    It was the largest military operation in human history.

    The Nazis had already conquered most of Europe. Hitler had grown overconfident from his recent military victories. Now he was hunting for big game… Stalin’s USSR.

    Throughout history, many European invaders, including Napoleon, suffered monumental defeats when they took on Russia. Despite this, Hitler thought he could succeed where they had failed.

    The idea was to inflict a total defeat on the Soviets in a matter of months, before the notoriously brutal Russian winter began.

    At first, it looked like the Germans might succeed. The Soviets were taken by surprise and were disorganized.

    But those initial victories wouldn’t be enough. Thanks to stubborn resistance and a seemingly inexhaustible supply of Soviet troops, Operation Barbarossa stalled.

    The Germans didn’t make it to Moscow before winter. The ruthless cold weather would prove to be a far more effective weapon than anything in the Soviet arsenal. Hitler’s hopes of quickly taking out the USSR perished in the brutal cold. It ultimately turned the tide of the war against Germany.

    But the Soviet victory cost millions of lives. By the end of the war, the Soviets had lost over 20 million people. Some estimate they lost many millions more. By comparison, the U.S. lost around 400,000 people.

    So, it shouldn’t be surprising that the Russians get a little prickly when a foreign military starts marching toward their borders.

    And recently… for the first time since Operation Barbarossa, German tanks are once again advancing on Russia’s border.

    You probably haven’t heard this extraordinary piece of news. That’s because the mass media has basically ignored and obscured it. They’ve been busy covering far more important things… like transgender issues and Kim Kardashian’s latest stunt.

    That’s why I want to tell you about Operation Anaconda 2016.

    It’s the largest war game in Eastern Europe since the end of the Cold War. It’s essentially a rehearsal to secure a quick NATO victory in the event of war with Russia.

    It was launched from Warsaw, Poland, recently and involves 31,000 NATO troops.

    Operation Anaconda 2016 is one of the most important stories you’re not hearing about. It shows how perilously close the world is to another global war.

    I found out about Operation Anaconda 2016 while in Warsaw with Doug Casey earlier this year.

    (Incidentally, Poland is one of the cheapest, enjoyable countries I’ve ever been to. A 30-minute taxi ride from the middle of Warsaw to the airport is only $5. You’ll be hard-pressed to find an entrée in one of the nicest restaurants for over $15.

    Poland does not use the European currency, the euro. It has its own currency, the zloty. And the zloty’s weakness is a big reason Poland is so inexpensive today. By the way, “zloty” means “gold” in Polish. But the currency has no tie to gold. It’s just a paper currency, like the dollar and euro are.)

    Operation Anaconda 2016 is controversial even within NATO. German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier recently said:

    Whoever believes that a symbolic tank parade on the alliance’s eastern border will bring security is mistaken. We are well advised to not create pretexts to renew an old confrontation.

    Although Steinmeier said Operation Anaconda 2016 is symbolic, he failed to mention exactly what it symbolizes.

    First, an anaconda is a giant snake. It kills its prey by squeezing it. From the Russian perspective, they’re the ones who feel squeezed. This is precisely what the U.S. has been doing by fomenting so-called colored revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia (both on Russia’s periphery) and trying to absorb them into NATO.

    Second, this unprecedented “tank parade” on Russia’s borders symbolizes nothing less than World War 3.

    (Doug Casey: It’s provocative, and actually quite insane. The Western media paints the Russians as the aggressors, which—let me shock you by saying this—is the opposite of the truth. Russia is an economic minnow, producing nothing but oil and gas, and mostly unprofitably, at current prices. Its population is in permanent decline, and it’s actually a disintegrating empire with a dozen secession movements. Its only serious industrial sector is manufacturing weapons, but even the most advanced Sukhois and MiGs (like the F-22 and F-35) are artifacts of a bygone era. The Russians aren’t in a position to threaten anyone—entirely apart from the fact that conquering neighboring countries no longer makes sense. In today’s world, you’re no longer acquiring an asset to be looted, but taking on a liability.

    As for NATO, it’s outlived its usefulness by over 25 years. The huge military bureaucracy is just a hammer in search of a nail. It should be abolished before it gets everyone in a lot of trouble.)

    Russian President Vladimir Putin has reacted to Operation Anaconda 2016 with alarm. At a recent press conference, he warned Western mainstream media journalists that the world is sleepwalking into World War 3, saying:

    We know year by year what’s going to happen, and they know that we know. It’s only you that they tell tall tales to, and you buy it, and spread it to the citizens of your countries. Your people in turn do not feel a sense of the impending danger—this is what worries me.

    How do you not understand that the world is being pulled in an irreversible direction? While they pretend that nothing is going on. I don’t know how to get through to you anymore.

    U.S. politicians like to use Putin as a piñata to show how tough they are. Hillary Clinton has declared Putin to be the new Hitler. This is the kind of thinking that fueled Operation Anaconda 2016.

    Now, we’re not referees charged with deciding which political players are good guys and which are bad guys.

    However, the portrait of Putin as a Hitler or a crazy man leading his country toward disaster—the picture you get from the mainstream media and from many politicians—is suitable only for propaganda posters.

    I don’t give two you-know-whats about what happens in Eastern Europe, except to the extent it might spark World War 3 and cause us to get vaporized in a nuclear exchange.

    Albert Einstein once said, “I know not with what weapons World War 3 will be fought, but World War 4 will be fought with sticks and stones.”

    *  *  *

    It’s always been true, as Bourne said, that “war is the health of the State.” But it’s especially true when economic times get tough. That’s because governments like to blame their problems on outsiders; even an imagined foreign threat tends to unify opinions around those of the leaders.

    Since economies around the world are all weakening, and political leaders are all similar in essential mindset, there’s good reason to believe the trend toward World War 3 is accelerating.

    Unfortunately, there’s little any individual can do to practically change the trajectory of this trend in motion. The best you can and should do is to stay informed so that you can protect yourself in the best way possible and even profit from the situation.

    That’s exactly why New York Times best-selling author Doug Casey and his team just released an urgent video. Click here to watch it now.

  • Mexico Orders Banks To "Stress Test" For A Trump Victory

    It’s official: Donald Trump is now a systemic threat.

    As part of the Mexican stress test, alongside more traditional calamities such as recession, economic crisis, and market crash, the Mexican financial authorities have ordered local banks to assess the potential impact of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidential election, Reuters reports. Citing six bank sources, Reuters says that alongside a “normal” annual stress test, the banks were asked to conduct an additional test to examine the macroeconomic effects and volatility resulting from a potential Trump victory on Nov. 8.

    The local regulator, the Financial System Stability Board (CESF) said that as a result of the ongoing risk surrounding the U.S. election and an expected tightening in Federal Reserve monetary policy, it had examined the results of stress tests of the country’s financial system. “These exercises showed that the banking sector maintains adequate levels of capital and liquidity to face adverse scenarios,” the CESF, which includes representatives from the Finance Ministry, the Bank of Mexico and the banking regulator CNBV, said in its statement.

    However, while the rest of the stress test is largely fluff, what Mexico really wanted to know is what happens to local banks if Trump becomes president in 19 days: as a result the tests “were specifically aimed at modeling the possible impact of a Trump victory over Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, the latest example of the panic the Republican candidates campaign has induced in Mexico.

    Among other things, Trump has vowed to rewrite the North American Free Trade Agreement if he wins, and build a southern border wall that Mexico would pay for. Fears that Trump could take the White House have also weighed on the peso which is down nearly 8 percent so far this year.  Trump was in Mexico City briefly in August for a highly contentious visit that led to widespread criticism of Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto and helped precipitate the resignation of then finance minister Luis Videgaray, who was seen as the architect of the meeting.

    Still, Mexico is far less nervous than it was just a month ago: one of the banking sources told Reuters that Trump’s recent collapse in the polls following a string of groping accusations had helped calm concerns that he might win. Of course, the reason why S&P futures traded limit down on the night of Brexit is because just like now, the outcome was taken for granted by all involved, with virtually all polls guaranteeing the preferable outcome.

    It remains to be seen if Trump can repeat the Brexit shock.

  • The Missing "Oh Shit" Link Revealed: Hillary Admits "I Asked That They Be Deleted"

    Back in September we wrote about the circumstances leading up to the “Oh Shit” moment when Paul Combetta of Platte River Networks deleted Hillary’s 30,000 “personal emails” (the full notes is here:  “The “Oh Shit” Moment: Hillary Wiped Her Server With BleachBit Despite Subpoena“).  Within the original FBI interview notes, Hillary “stated she never deleted, nor did she instruct anyone to delete, her e-mails to avoid complying with FOIA, State, or FBI requests for information.”  Moreover, just last week, in sworn testimony provided to Judicial Watch, Hillary also denied asking for the emails to be deleted.  That said, a new email discovered in the latest WikiLeaks dump seems to offer a direct contradiction to what Hillary previously told both the FBI and Judicial Watch.

    So which version is true?

    –  FBI Notes:  “Clinton stated she was also unaware of the March 2015 e-mail deletions by PRN.”

    –  Judicial Watch Testimony:   “She believes that her personal e-mails were not kept, and she does not have any personal knowledge about the details of that process.”

    –  Private Talking Points (WikiLeaks):  “As I said in March, I chose not to keep the personal ones.  I asked that they be deleted.”

     

    Before getting into the details, here is the background from the FBI notes on how Hillary’s personal emails came to be deleted. 

    Shortly after providing the data dump to the State Department, in “December 2014 or January 2015,” both Heather Samuelson and Cheryl Mills requested that all emails be removed from their computers using “a program called BleachBit to delete the e-mail-related files so they could not be recovered.” 

    For her part, “Clinton stated she never deleted, nor did she instruct anyone to delete, her e-mails to avoid complying with FOIA, State or FBI requests for information” though the following notes suggest she did agree to change her email retention policy to 60 days.

    Clinton 1

     

    A few months later, on March 4, 2015, Hillary received a subpoena from the House for all of her emails on all of her personal servers.

    Hillary FBI BleachBit

     

    Which brings us to the “Oh Shit” moment which occurred on March 25, 2015.  On that fateful day, Paul Combetta realized that he had forgotten to change Hillary’s email retention policy to 60 days.  But, the existence of the Congressional subpoena now meant that those emails needed to be preserved.  Despite acknowledging the subpoena, after a call with Hillary’s attorney, David Kendall, and Cheryl Mills, Combetta proceeded to delete the emails anyway.

    Ironically, both Mills and Clinton subsequently denied any knowledge that the “personal emails” were deleted.

    “Mills stated she was unaware that [Redacted] had conducted these deletions and modifications in March 2015.  Clinton stated she was also unaware of the March 2015 e-mail deletions by PRN.”

    Clinton

     

    Which leads us to our final question…if, as reported to the FBI, Hillary was unaware that her “personal emails” were deleted in March 2015 then why, in internal talking points that never surfaced publicly before today, did Clinton admit that “As I said in March, I chose not to keep the personal ones.  I asked that they be deleted.”

    Apparently, Hillary has both a public and private position on exactly what happened in March 2015…we’ll let you decide which is more reflective of the truth.

    Clinton

     

    Finally, we’ll leave you with one more Hillary variation of an “answer” to the exact same question.  The following response was offered to Judicial Watch as part of a FOIA lawsuit and the answer was specifically provided under oath.

    Question:  After your lawyers completed their review of the emails in your clintonemail.com email account in late 2014, were the electronic versions of your emails preserved, deleted, or destroyed?  If they were deleted or destroyed, what tool or software was used to delete or destroy them, who deleted or destroyed them, and was the deletion or destruction done at your direction?

     

    Response:  Secretary Clinton objects to Interrogatory No. 23 as outside the scope of permitted discovery for the reason set forth in General Objection No. 3.  Secretary Clinton further objects to Interrogatory No. 23 on the ground that it requests information that is outside the scope of permitted discovery for the reason set forth in General Objection No. 5.  Secretary Clinton further objects to Interrogatory No. 23 insofar as it requests information about all e-mail in her clintonemail.com account, including personal e-mail.  Subject to and without waiving the foregoing objections, Secretary Clinton states that it was her expectation that all of her work-related and potentially work-related e-mail then in her custody would be provided to the State Department in response to its request.  Secretary Clinton believes that her attorneys retained copies of the e-mails provided to the State Department in December 2014, but she does not have any personal knowledge about the details of that process.  Secretary Clinton decided that, once her work-related and potentially work-related e-mails were provided to the State Department, she had no reason to keep her personal e-mails, which did not relate to official State Department business.  She believes that her personal e-mails were not kept, and she does not have any personal knowledge about the details of that process.

     

    So, we ask again, which version is true?

    –  FBI Notes:  “Clinton stated she was also unaware of the March 2015 e-mail deletions by PRN.”

    –  Judicial Watch Testimony:   “She believes that her personal e-mails were not kept, and she does not have any personal knowledge about the details of that process.”

    –  Private Talking Points (WikiLeaks):  “As I said in March, I chose not to keep the personal ones.  I asked that they be deleted.”

     

    Finally, we leave you with this:

  • ECB Preview: What Wall Street Thinks Mario Draghi Will Say Tomorrow

    In many ways, the task facing the ECB’s Mario Draghi is the most daunting of all central bankers. On one hand, the ECB head has to keep financial conditions as loose as possible to stimulate the lethargic credit pathways in Europe, on the other European banks and insurance companies have been the most severely impacted by the ECB’s Negative interest rate policy. Which is why some have suggested that pursuing a BOJ-like policy of “curve manipulation”, where the 10Y is pegged at a certain level and allowing the curve to steepen while pushing short rates even lower may be the best approach for the central bank. However, due to the peculiarities of the joint European bond market, where political considerations make such an experiment particularly complicated complex, it is unlikely that the central bank will be able to mimic the BOJ’s exercise in progress.

    Making matters worse for the ECB is the intertwined nature between depressed European bank equity prices and local lending. As Deutsche Bank suggestively cautioned earlier, “our view has been that, in what is predominantly a bank dominated market, lending standards (and then actual lending) could soon be hurt by the depressed nature of European bank equity prices as bank equity prices have led lending by 12 months since the Euro commenced (updated graph included in the piece). The tightening seen yesterday is still way below GFC levels but given recent equity trends it is a potential worry in the quarters ahead. Perhaps this is another sign to central banks that current monetary policy could hurt lending in so far as it hurts bank equity prices. It is not clear that the ECB has any inclination to change direction but it feels increasingly unlikely that they can ease further without causing collateral damage.”

    As DB concludes, “the path of monetary policy is becoming more and more complicated.”

    Still, Draghi has to say something, and as Bloomberg notes, the ECB meeting on Thursday may boil down to Draghi’s communication about asset purchases, with market watchers focusing on just one key aspect: any hint of QE tapering would spur a large scale sell-off in the rates market, according to most of the sellside strategists.

    Here is what the prevailing consensus of what Draghi may and should say tomorrow looks like:

    • Rates markets are pricing a dovish outcome
    • Draghi will need to put the tapering discussion back in the box to avoid an adverse market reaction, according to BofAML
    • Any euro move triggered by ECB could be short-lived as the outlook for the currency remains linked to the market pricing of a Fed rate increase this year
    • ECB is expected to stay on hold this week for many reasons, including risk events such as U.S. elections and the constitutional referendum in Italy; staff economic forecasts will be released only in December
    • Outlook for any technical changes to QE such as issue limit and deposit rate floor for purchases as well as any indication of by how long the buying program would be extended, if at all, will be watched

    Below is the full breakdown by bank of what Wall Street’s strategists believe will happen tomorrow:

    BofAML (Gilles Moec, Athanasios Vamvakidis, Ralf Preusser)

    • Expects Draghi to sound dovish and reject talk of early tapering; central scenario sees ECB announcing in December that it will prolong QE until September 2017 at the current EU80b pace
    • EUR may weaken; still, the impact is unlikely to be sustained as a QE extension expected; sees EUR/USD below 1.1000 if Fed hikes rates and the ECB extends QE in Dec.
    • Draghi will need to put the tapering discussion back in the box to avoid an adverse market reaction in rates
    • The QE discussion seems to have moved on from tapering to technicalities; tweaking QE parameters reduces the risk of further bull flattening in core rates

    RBS (Giles Gale, Ross Walker, Clement Mary-Dauphin)

    • Importance of meeting has increased as it will be a difficult communication exercise for the governing council while markets are betting on a volatile outcome
    • A communication mistake could spur a large sell-off in EUR rates, peripheral spreads widening and curves steepening; still, expect the magnitude of the move to be somewhat smaller than during the “bund tantrum”; sees ~50-70bps upside in 30y rates
    • If ECB sends a strong signal that QE is going to be extended, announces issue and issuer limit relaxations, reiterates its accommodative stance and addresses taper concerns, investors should expect lower rates, bull flattening and tighter peripheral spreads
    • Base-case scenario is for a nine-month extension with unchanged EU80b monthly pace and a relaxation of issue- issuer limits at December meeting

    UBS (Reinhard Cluse, Nishay Patel)

    • Base-case scenario remains that ECB will announce a six- month extension of QE in December, with ongoing purchases of EU80b per month
    • Still, given the resilience in growth, the pick-up in inflation and concerns about the negative side effects of low interest rates and bond yields, believe a tapering decision in December shouldn’t be dismissed easily
    • Rates markets seem to be pricing in a fairly dovish outlook for ECB monetary policy and euro zone fundamentals, setting a high bar for the ECB to deliver a more dovish outcome than what is already priced in
    • If expectation regarding technical changes to the ECB’s QE program materializes (above all, higher issue limits for non-CAC bonds and scrapping the deposit rate floor in December), euro zone yield curve should steepen materially
    • Foresees German 10-year yields rising further and reaching 0.15% by year-end and 0.50% by end-2017

    GOLDMAN SACHS (Dirk Schumacher)

    • Draghi will stress that the timeline for QE will be decided based on the inflation outlook, and that technical constraints will not stand in the way of an extension
    • Continue to expect the ECB to extend the QE at December meeting beyond March 2017 — at least initially– at the current volume of EU80b
    • While ECB may have arguments for why it may consider tapering the purchases, a large majority on the Governing Council probably still view the net effect of the ECB’s policy measure on growth and inflation as positive
    • Says there is probably a broad agreement among the Governing Council that there would be no sudden stop, but rather a gradual decline in the monthly volumes purchases, once it decides to end the QE

    CITIGROUP (Harvinder Sian, Guillaume Menuet)

    • This week’s meeting has some asymmetric bear steepening risk as there may be some news on the technical PSPP shifts, which could remove long-end negative convexity support
    • Draghi may not be hawkish but he will probably also not be as dovish as the consensus expects when asked about taper risks; says it’s hard to see a bullish inference
    • Baseline scenario for this month is ECB announcing an increase in the issue/issuer limit from 33% to 50% and a relaxation of the rule that prohibits purchases of bonds with a yield below the deposit facility rate; this should be enough to address any scarcity concerns well beyond March: MORE

    JPMORGAN (Greg Fuzesi, Mika Inkinen,Paul Meggyesi)

    • Doesn’t expect changes this week; decisions about extending QE and changing modalities are linked and will likely be taken together in December
    • Says ECB is almost 100% certain to extend QE beyond March, and sees only a 20% risk of a reduction in the pace to EU60b/month; as compromise with the hawks, expects the extension to be only for six months, rather than nine
    • Recommends paring back on bearish duration exposure; close shorts in 15Y Germany, and take profit on 3s/5s steepeners
    • Front-end swap spreads already price in ECB buying below the depo floor; fade the richness in Schatz swap spreads via Schatz/Bund OIS swap spread curve steepener
    • Take profits on short EUR/JPY straddles; ECB meeting could prove reasonably inconclusive about the ECB’s policy intentions and so partially reverse the recent downward pressure on EUR/USD

    BARCLAYS (Cagdas Aksu, Huw Worthington)

    • Decision on QE extension or parameter changes will likely be on hold until December
    • If there are any announcements, they are more likely to be on technical parameter changes than the extension of the program
    • Base case is for QE to be extended at the December meeting by six-nine months beyond March 2017, seeing a reduction in size also possible at the March meeting next year
    • Stick with a portfolio of trades that have a term and credit premium increase bias in EGB peripheral curves and spreads; in core, continue to favor being long belly ASWs outright, as well as versus longer-end ASWs
    • Trades include long 10s/30s Ireland steepener, short 30y BTPs vs Germany, long 7y France ASW and short 5s/15s Finnish ASW box

    NOMURA (analysts including Jordan Rochester)

    • Stronger indications of a QE extension would keep EUR/USD on its current depreciation path, while steepening curves with stable risk sentiment would also sustain the momentum of USD/JPY appreciation
    • If ECB communication further increases market concerns over near-term tapering, curves may steepen and risk sentiment deteriorate; this would challenge the recent trend of EUR/USD depreciation and USD/JPY appreciation, though not Nomura’s main scenario

    DEUTSCHE BANK (Francis Yared):

    • ECB likely to wait until December before announcing the technical changes to QE, but Draghi may give some indications about the range of possible outcome
    • Maintain the same strategic bias toward a bear steepening of the curve; make tactical adjustments to portfolio to reflect current valuations and a slightly less favourable macro backdrop
    • In Europe, exit the Bobl-Buxl ASW spread; among other trades, maintain the 10s30s steepener which somewhat lags in the repricing of QE expectations

    UNICREDIT (Marco Valli, Vasileios Gkionakis)

    • Sees upside risks for EUR as its underperformance suggests that some market participants may be gearing up for some sort of announcement at ECB meeting
    • It would be premature for the ECB to do so now, without updated economic projections
    • Central scenario remains that the ECB will announce a six-nine-month extension of QE beyond March 2017 in December

    Source: Bloomberg

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Today’s News 19th October 2016

  • Why Is Obama Threatening Russia With World War 3 Right Before The Election?

    Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

    It sure seems like an odd time to be provoking a war with Russia.  As I write this, we stand just a little bit more than three weeks away from one of the most pivotal elections in U.S. history, and Barack Obama has chosen this moment to strongly threaten the Russians.  As I wrote about on Friday, Reuters is reporting that Obama is contemplating “direct U.S. military action” against Syrian military targets, and the Russians have already indicated that any assault on Syrian forces would be considered an attack on themselves.  The rapidly deteriorating crisis in Syria has already caused tensions with Russia to rise to the highest level since the end of the Cold War, but now Obama is adding fuel to the fire by publicly considering “an unprecedented cyber covert action against Russia”.  Apparently Obama believes that Russian hackers are interfering in the election and so he wants payback.  The following comes from an NBC News article entitled “CIA Prepping for Possible Cyber Strike Against Russia“…

    The Obama administration is contemplating an unprecedented cyber covert action against Russia in retaliation for alleged Russian interference in the American presidential election, U.S. intelligence officials told NBC News.

     

    Current and former officials with direct knowledge of the situation say the CIA has been asked to deliver options to the White House for a wide-ranging “clandestine” cyber operation designed to harass and “embarrass” the Kremlin leadership.

     

    The sources did not elaborate on the exact measures the CIA was considering, but said the agency had already begun opening cyber doors, selecting targets and making other preparations for an operation.

    Somebody should tell Obama that he is not playing a video game.  A cyber attack is considered to be an act of war, and the Russians would inevitably retaliate.  And considering how exceedingly vulnerable our cyber infrastructure is, I don’t know if that is something that we want to invite.

    At the end of last week, Vice President Joe Biden also publicly threatened the Russians

    On Friday, Vice President Joe Biden met “Meet the Press” host Chuck Todd for an interview that has raised serious concern in Russia.

     

    Without bothering to question the authenticity of the claims, Todd took the allegations of Russian hacking at face value, opening his interview with a loaded question: “Why haven’t we sent a message yet to Putin?”

     

    After a moment of stunned silence, Biden responded, “We’re sending a message. We have the capacity to do it and it will be at the time of our choosing, and under the circumstances that will have the greatest impact.”

     

    When Todd asked if the public will know a message was sent, Biden replied, “Hope not.”

    The Russians firmly deny that they had any involvement in the hacking, and so far the Obama administration has not publicly produced any firm evidence that the Russians were behind it.

    Perhaps the Obama administration privately has some evidence, but at this point they have not shown that evidence to the American public.

    So for Joe Biden to be making these sorts of threats is a very dangerous thing.  The Russians are taking these threats very seriously, and they are preparing to protect their interests

    ‘The threats directed against Moscow and our state’s leadership are unprecedented because they are voiced at the level of the US vice president.

     

    ‘To the backdrop of this aggressive, unpredictable line, we must take measures to protect (our) interests, to hedge risks,’ a Kremlin spokesman said, according to RIA Novosti news agency.

    Here in the United States, most people don’t even realize that we could be on the verge of a major conflict with Russia.

    But over in Russia things are completely different.  Talk of war is everywhere, and the potential for war is the number one topic in the Russian media right now.  Just check out some of the recent Russian media headlines about the conflict between our two nations…

    And one Russian television network recently instructed their viewers to locate the nearest bomb shelter in case a nuclear war between the United States and Russia suddenly erupts…

    A terrifying Russian television broadcast explicitly told civilians to find out where their nearest bomb shelter is and repeatedly asked viewers if they were ready for nuclear war.

     

    One apocalyptic broadcast told viewers on Moscow’s state-owned TV channel NTV: “If it should one day happen, every one of you should know where the nearest bomb shelter is. It’s best to find out now.”

    I don’t believe that the Russians are crazy to be thinking that a war might be coming.

    To me, it almost seems as though Obama wants one.

    Could it be possible that a conflict with Russia will be used to alter, change or influence the upcoming election in November?

    The truth is that it isn’t going to take much for the shooting to begin.  If Obama orders airstrikes against Syrian forces, the Russians have said that they will shoot back

    Ash Carter has threatened Russia with “consequences”. After blowing up the ceasefire, the Pentagon – supported by the Joint Chiefs of Staff — now is peddling “potential strikes” on Syria’s air force to “punish the regime” for what the Pentagon actually did; blow up the ceasefire. One can’t make this stuff up.

     

    Major-General Igor Konashenkov, Russia’s Defense Ministry spokesman, sent a swift message to “our colleagues in Washington”; think twice if you believe you can get away with launching a “shadow” hot war against Russia. Russia will target any stealth/unidentified aircraft attacking Syrian government targets – and they will be shot down.

     

    The only serious question then is whether an out of control Pentagon will force the Russian Air Force – false flag and otherwise — to knock out US Air Force fighter jets, and whether Moscow has the fire power to take out each and every one of them.

    I discussed the potential for war with Russia in my latest video.  Hopefully cooler heads will prevail and war with Russia will be put off…

    But without a doubt the crisis in Syria is not going to be resolved any time soon because it is one giant mess.  Most people don’t realize that the Syrian civil war has essentially been a proxy war between Sunni Islam and Shia Islam from the very beginning.  Jihadist rebels that are being armed and funded by Saudi Arabia and Turkey are fighting Hezbollah troops that are being armed and funded by Iran.  And now Turkish forces have invaded northern Syria, and this threatens to cause a full-blown war to erupt between Turkey and the Syrian Kurds.  Of course ISIS is right in the middle of everything causing havoc, blowing stuff up and beheading anyone that doesn’t believe in their radical version of Sunni Islam.

    It is absolutely insane that the United States and Russia could potentially go to war because of this conflict.  Both sides are determined to show the other how tough they are, and one false move could set off a spiral of events from which they may be no recovery.

    The American people very foolishly elected Barack Obama twice, but up until now the consequences have not been quite as dire as many had been projecting.

    However, right here at the end of his second term Obama is facing a moment of truth.  If he ends up dragging us into a war with Russia, the American people will ultimately bitterly regret putting him into the White House.

  • Why Did Vote-Rigging Robert Creamer Visit The White House Over 200 Times During The Obama Admin

    Earlier today we wrote about a new Project Veritas undercover video that uncovered several democratic operatives openly discussing, in explicit detail, how to commit massive voter fraud.  One of the operatives was a person by the name of Robert Creamer who is a co-founder of a democratic consulting firm called Democracy Partners.  Within the video, an undercover journalist details a plan to register Hispanic voters illegally by having them work as contractors, to which Creamer can be heard offering support saying that “there are a couple of organizations that that’s their big trick” (see: “Rigging Elections For 50 Years” – Massive Voter Fraud Exposed By Project Veritas Part 2“).

    Unfortunately, the embarrassing video caused Creamer to subsequently resign from consulting the Hillary campaign as he issued a statement saying that he was “stepping back from my responsibilities working the [Hillary] campaign” over fears that his continued assistance would be a distraction for the campaign. 

    But voter fraud isn’t Creamer’s only criminal specialty.  A quick look at Wikipedia reveals that Creamer spent 5 months in federal prison back in 2006 for a “$2.3 million bank fraud in relation to his operation of public interest groups in the 1990s.”

    So, with that kind of history, you can imagine our surprise when we discovered that a Mr. Robert Creamer showed up on the White House visitor logs 340 times beginning in 2009 when Obama took office and culminating with his latest visit in June 2016.  Moreover, in 45 of those instances, Creamer was scheduled to meet with POTUS himself.  Perhaps this is just two old Chicago “community organizers” hanging out?

    <a href=”https://open.whitehouse.gov/dataset/Robert-Creamer/9vny-arr6” _mce_href=”https://open.whitehouse.gov/dataset/Robert-Creamer/9vny-arr6” title=”Robert Creamer” target=”_blank”>Robert Creamer</a>

    Powered by Socrata

     

    According to his website bio, Creamer has been a “political organizer and strategist for over four decades” and has been very involved with the Obama administration over the years.  He even “provided strategic advice” to Obama on the “Iran nuclear deal.”  Ironically, Creamer “began his organizing career in 1970 working with Chicago’s Citizen Action Program (CAP), which had been organized by Saul Alinsky’s Industrial Areas Foundation.”

    Robert Creamer has been a political organizer and strategist for over four decades.

     

    During that time he has worked with many of the country’s most significant issue campaigns. He was one of the major architects and organizers of the successful 2005 campaign to defeat the privatization of Social Security. He has been a consultant to the campaigns to end the war in Iraq, pass universal health care, hold Wall Street accountable, pass progressive budget priorities, and enact comprehensive immigration reform.

     

    He is General Consultant to Americans United for Change where he helped coordinate the campaigns to pass President Obama’s landmark jobs and economic recovery legislation.

     

    Creamer has provided strategic advice for a wide array of progressive causes ranging from the movement to stop gun violence, defending the Obama Administration’s Iran nuclear deal, raise the minimum wage and guarantee the right of collective bargaining.

     

    During the 2008 and 2012 Presidential Elections he worked with the Democratic National Committee as a consultant to the Obama Presidential Campaign coordinating field based rapid response to Republican Presidential candidates.

     

    During his career, Creamer has worked on hundreds of electoral campaigns at the local, state and national level.

     

    Creamer began his organizing career in 1970 working with Chicago’s Citizen Action Program (CAP), which had been organized by Saul Alinsky’s Industrial Areas Foundation. CAP successfully campaigned to reduce the sulfur dioxide in Chicago’s air by almost two thirds.

     

    In 1974 he founded the Illinois Public Action Council – later known as Illinois Citizen Action – which became the state’s largest consumer advocacy organization and progressive political coalition. He directed the organization for 23 years.

     

    Creamer has been a full time political consultant since 1997 when he co-founded the Strategic Consulting Group, now a component part of Democracy Partners.

     

    He graduated from Duke University and did graduate work at the University of Chicago.

     

    He is a board member of the Midwest Academy organizer training institute and the Sentencing Project which is seeking to end mass incarceration and reform the nation’s sentencing laws.

     

    Creamer is an author and regular contributor to the Huffington Post. He is married to Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky from Illinois. His recent book is titled, Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win.

    Finally, Creamer’s wife is none other that Jan Schakowsky, a U.S. Representative for Illinois’s 9th congressional district which she has served since 1999.

    Jan

     

    Just another plume of smoke?

  • "Rigging Elections For 50 Years" – Massive Voter Fraud Exposed By Project Veritas Part 2

    Update 1:  Just shortly after posting video #2 earlier this afternoon, Project Veritas has claimed its second victim as Bob Creamer has announced he will be “stepping back from my responsibilities working the [Hillary] campaign.”

     

     

    Ironically, the mainstream media is still refusing to play the Project Veritas videos claiming that their authenticity needs to first be verified.  Perhaps we could suggest that two people being fired from their respective employers is sufficient evidence to suggest that, at least in the minds of the people closest to the situation, the videos are, in fact, legitimate…just a thought.

    Below is what we wrote earlier today:

    * * *

    Yesterday we noted the release of Part 1 of a multi-part video series created by Project Veritas revealing some of the dirty, behind-the-scenes secrets of the democratic party.  Part 1 was dedicated to uncovering plots by democratic operatives to incite violence at Trump rallies, a strategy they referred to as “bird dogging” (we provided a full summary here:  “Undercover Footage Shows Clinton Operatives Admit To Inciting “Anarchy” At Trump Rallies“).

    It didn’t take long for yesterday’s video to claim it’s first casualty as Scott Foval, the National Field Director for Americans United for Change, was fired shortly after the video’s release.  Foval’s former employer released the following statement:

    “Americans United for Change has always operated according to the highest ethical standards.  Scott Foval is no longer associated with Americans United for Change.

     

    That said, perhaps the more disturbing revelation from the first video was that one agitator, Zulema Rodriguez, who admitted to inciting “violent protests” that forced Trump to cancel a Chicago rally back in March, was paid directly by the Hillary campaign just a few weeks before that event.  In fact, according to data from the Federal Election Commission, Zulema has been collecting fees from a lot of political organizations recently…turns out that picking fights at Republican rallies is a lucrative business…who knew? 

    FEC Data

     

    And now we have Part II of the series in which O’Keefe reveals how people, like Foval, successfully organize massive voter fraud in key swing states.  Among other things, Foval goes into great details about how fraudulent out-of-state voters are hired on at fake “shell companies” just so they can register to vote and are then paid for their votes through “paychecks” from those same entities.  Foval goes on to detail how the operatives bring people in to different states, using their own personal vehicles or by having shell companies rent vehicles, instead of using busses which would make it easier to prove a conspiracy.

    “It’s a very easy thing for Republicans to say, “Well, they’re bussing people in.” Well, you know what? We’ve been bussing people in to deal with you fucking assholes for fifty years and we’re not going to stop now, we’re just going to find a different way to do it.”

     

    “When I do this I think as an investigator first – I used to do the investigations. I think backwards from how they would prosecute, if they could, and then try to build out the method to avoid that.”

    Per Planet Free Will, the video also features Bob Creamer, a fraudster who served time for a $2.3mm bank fraud in relation to his operation of “community organizing” groups in the 90s.  Creamer is also the founder of Democracy Partners and husband of Democrat congresswoman Jan Schakowsky. The undercover journalist details a plan to register Hispanic voters illegally having them work as contractors, to which Creamer replies that “there are a couple of organizations that that’s their big trick,” and that “turnout is huge, huge, huge.”

  • Mystery Deepens Around Fate Of Julian Assange

    The following tweets posted by WikiLeaks yesterday set off a massive bout of speculation over the fate of Julian Assange who has been holed up in the Ecuadorian embassy in London for nearly 4 years.  There has been much speculation that the sudden change in support for Assange from the Ecuadorian government was prompted by political leverage being asserted by the Obama administration to thwart the release of emails that are proving to be very damaging to the Hillary presidential campaign. 

     

    Now, just this morning, WikiLeaks sent the following tweet, quoting “multiple US sources,” saying that, in fact, John Kerry personally asked the Ecuadorian government to shut down Assange and his leaks of Clinton’s emails.

     

    Obviously, despite their efforts, cutting off Assange’s internet access has done nothing to slow the release of emails.  But, as the Associated Press has reported, those close to Assange, including staffers Kristinn Hrafnsson and Sarah Harrison, have gone silent while the Ecuadorian embassy is refusing to provide any updates on Assange’s fate.  

    WikiLeaks staffers Kristinn Hrafnsson and Sarah Harrison did not return repeated messages seeking comment. A woman who answered the phone at the embassy said she was not authorized to say anything.

    Of course, the real question is to what extent the Ecuadorian government has been compromised and what that ultimately means for the fate of Assange.  Clearly, Assange has made numerous enemies over the years with his repeated release of confidential information that has been somewhat embarrassing for many world leaders.  Certainly, Hillary’s opinion on how to handle Assange was made quite clear when she asked, “can’t we just drone this guy?”  

     

    According to various media outlets, the Ecuadorian government has offered no immediate comment on the question of internet access, but foreign minister, Guillaume Long, confirmed that Assange remained under government protection and affirmed that his protection would remain so long as the “circumstances that led to the granting of asylum remain.”  Loosely translated, the full statement reads as follows:

    “Faced with the speculation of the last few hours, the Government of Ecuador ratifies the validity of the asylum granted to Julian Assange four years ago.  We reaffirm that his protection by the Ecuadorean state will continue while the circumstances that led to the granting of asylum remain.

     

    According to Reuters, Ecuador’s President Rafael Correa has been an ardent supporter of Assange’s right to free speech though he admits to having a personal relationship with Hillary Clinton and has suggested he would like for her to win the U.S. presidency “for the good of the United States and the world.”

    The government of leftist President Rafael Correa has long backed Assange’s right to free speech, though the Wikileaks saga has caused some strain in relations with the United States, including the expulsion of diplomats in 2011.

     

    Correa, whose term will end next year, has said he is behind Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, who he says he knows personally, in the U.S. presidential election.

     

    “For the good of the United States and the world … I would like Hillary to win,” Correa told broadcaster Russia Today last month.

    As we draw nearer to November 8th, we suspect that the “political leverage” applied by the Obama administration against the Ecuadorian government will become ever more intense.  Given the increasing level of political pressure he will certainly face in the coming weeks, it will be interesting to see just how much President Correa truly supports “Assange’s right to free speech.”

  • American Psycho: Sex, Lies & Politics Add Up To A Terrifying Election Season

    Submitted by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    When it comes to sexual predators, there should be no political bright line test to determine who gets a free pass and who goes to jail based on which candidate is better suited for office.

    Yet almost 20 years after Bill Clinton became the first and only sitting president to be sued for sexual harassment and impeached for lying under oath about his sexual escapades while in office, the Left and the Right are still playing politics with women’s rights.

    I should know.

    As one of Paula Jones’ lawyers in her sexual harassment lawsuit against Bill Clinton (Hillary Clinton infamously and erroneously accused me of being part of a “vast right-wing conspiracy”), I saw first-hand how quickly Hillary Clinton and the nation’s leading women’s rights groups demonized any woman who dared to accuse Bill Clinton of sexual misconduct while turning a blind eye to a long list of incidents involving groping, propositioning, and pressuring women for sexual favors.

    Trust me, it was a very long list.

    As journalist Marjorie Williams documented in “Clinton and Women” for Vanity Fair:

    The man in question [Bill Clinton] has been sued for sexual harassment over an episode that allegedly included dropping his trousers to waggle his erect penis at a woman who held a $6.35-an-hour clerical job in the state government over which he presided.

     

    Another woman has charged that when she asked him for a job he invited her into his private office, fondled her breasts, and placed her hand on his crotch.

     

    A third woman confided to friends that when she was a 21-year-old intern she began an affair with the man… Actually, it was less an affair than a service contract, in which she allegedly dashed into his office, when summoned, to perform oral sex on him…

     

    Let us not even mention the former lover who was steered to a state job; or the law-enforcement officers who say the man used them to solicit sexual partners for him; or his routine use of staff members, lawyers, and private investigators to tar the reputation of any woman who tries to call him to account for his actions.

    I also witnessed first-hand the hypocrisy of the Religious Right, which was eager to stand in judgment over Clinton for his marital infidelity, while at the same time turning a blind eye to the indiscretions of other conservative politicians in their midst.

    *  *  *

    Fast forward 20 years, and the women’s rights groups that were silent when Bill Clinton was being outed as a sexual predator have suddenly found their voice and their outrage in the face of accusations that Donald Trump groped and kissed women without their consent. Likewise, the religious groups that were aghast over Clinton’s sexual immorality have somehow created a sliding scale of sin that allows them to absolve Trump of his own indiscretions.

    It’s like being in the Twilight Zone.

    Only instead of Rod Serling’s imaginary “land of both shadow and substance, of things and ideas,” we’re trapped in an all-too-real land of politics and lies, where freedom and integrity play second fiddle to ambition and greed.

    Nothing is real.

    This year’s presidential contest and its candidates have, through their double-talking and lies, pulled back the curtain to reveal that what we see is all part of an elaborate hoax, a cruel game where “we the people” are just pawns to be used, abused, discarded and demonized when convenient.

    All this talk about sexual predators is just so much political maneuvering to score points off one another. Neither Hillary Clinton nor Donald Trump care one whit about the victims of sexual harassment.

    Frankly, they don’t seem to care much about the rest of the populace, either.

    For all intents and purposes, we’re all victims of a perverse, perverted, psychotic mindset that views the citizenry as lesser beings: lacking in value, unworthy of respect, and completely undeserving of the legal rights and protections that should be afforded to all Americans.

    This is what happens when politics is allowed to trump principle: “we the people” lose.

    The women’s movement lost when it chose politics over principle, then and now.

    Women have been suffering because of that choice ever since. As feminist Jessica Valenti acknowledged in the Washington Post, “For women in America, equality is still an illusion… Because despite the indisputable gains over the years, women are still being raped, trafficked, violated and discriminated against—not just in the rest of the world, but here in the United States.”

    The Religious Right lost when it chose politics over principle, then and now.

    By compromising their values, they have made themselves completely irrelevant in matters of public policy. “As an organized and potent force in national politics, the Christian right has faded into nothingness,” policy analyst Paul Waldman concluded for the Washington Post. “It now exists for nothing more than to be patted on the head and sent on its way with an encouragement to vote in November.”

    The media—through its careful crafting of news stories to advance one politician over another—chose politics over principle, then and now. Barring a few exceptions, they have become little more than mouthpieces for the corporate elite.

    The citizenry is faced with a choice right now: to be distracted by mudslinging and circus politics or to forge a new path for the nation that rejects politics in favor of locally-based, transformative grassroots activism.

    Commentator Dan Sanchez is right: the act of voting is indeed futile.

    Voting in this political climate merely advances the agenda of the police state and affirms the government’s pillaging, raping, killing, bombing, stealing, shooting and many acts of tyranny and injustice.

    Mark my words: no matter who wins this election, the predators of the police state will continue to wreak havoc on our freedoms, our communities, and our lives.

    After all, police officers are still shooting unarmed citizens. Government agents—including local police—are still being armed to the teeth and encouraged to act like soldiers on a battlefield. Bloated government agencies are still fleecing taxpayers. Government technicians are still spying on our emails and phone calls. And government contractors are still making a killing by jailing Americans for profit and waging endless wars abroad.

    Are any of these issues being discussed right now? Not a single one.

    It boggles the mind.

    How is it possible that out of 318 million Americans in this country, we have been saddled with two candidates whose personal baggage and troubled histories make them utterly unfit for office anywhere but in the American police state?

    We need to stop being victimized by these political predators.

    As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, I’m not just talking about the ones running for office, but the ones who are running the show behind the scenes—the shadow government—comprised of unelected government bureaucrats whose powers are unaffected by elections, unaltered by populist movements, and beyond the reach of the law.

    Stop voting for their puppet candidates. Stop tolerating their long list of abuses. Stop making excuses for a system that long ago ceased to be legitimate. Most of all, stop playing by their rules and make them start playing by ours.

    My fear is that we are nearing the point of no return.

    “We the people”—men and women alike— have been victims of the police state for so long that not many Americans even remember what it is to be truly free anymore. Worse, few want to shoulder the responsibility that goes along with maintaining freedom.

    Yet as John Adams warned, “A government once changed from Freedom, can never be restored. Liberty, once lost, is lost forever.

    There is no way to erase the scars left by the government’s greed for money and power, its disregard for human life, its corruption and graft, its pollution of the environment, its reliance on excessive force in order to ensure compliance, its covert activities, its illegal surveillance, and its blatant disdain for the rule of law.

    Still, we can forge a new path.

    There is so much work to be done in order to right what is wrong with our nation, and there is so little time to fix what has been broken.

    Let’s not waste any more time on predator politics. Let’s get to work.

  • Global Markets Shrug As China 'Manages' To Meet GDP Expectations

    A couple of trillion dollars of freshly created debt and a collapsing currency (which did nothing for the trade balance which was described as "not very solid" by authorities) along with a dead stock market, a bond market at record low yields (unconvinced at any recovery) and a housing bubble and China's National Statistics Bureau 'nails it' with 'meets' across the board (albeit Industrial production disappointed).

     

    Yuan is accelerating weaker to 6 year lows… (but it didn't help trade)

     

    And yet another resurgence in total social financing (aggregate credit) In China…

     

    And the data was a snoozefest:

    • Industrial Production YoY MISS: 6.1% vs +6.3% Exp from +6.3% prior (6.0% to 6.5% range)
    • Retail Sales YoY MEET: +10.7% vs +10.7% Exp from +10.6% prior (10.5% to 11.0% range)
    • Fixed Assets Investments YTD YoY MEET: +8.2% vs +8.2% Exp from +8.1% prior (8.0% to 8.6% range)
    • GDP YoY MEET: +6.7% vs +6.7% Exp from +6.7% prior (6.4% to 6.9% range)

    Bloomberg notes that the industrial output gain is weaker than forecast while retail sales are bang in line – confirming the narrative that China's economy is rebalancing steadily toward consumption from manufacturing.

    It seems the surge in credit is not helping…

     

    NBS says in statement that China's economy still faces uncertainties. Sheng says economic situation generally stable in Jan.-Sept.

    China’s economy remained stable in the third quarter, all but ensuring the government’s full-year growth target will be hit and paving the way for a policy switch toward reining in financial risks.

    Bloomberg's Chief Asia Economics Correspondent Enda Curran notes:

    These numbers put to bed any talk of a Chinese hard landing in 2016. Anything can happen in the final quarter, of course, but it's hard to see the narrative shifting too much as we head into a year of political change.

     

    The bigger issue now is whether the authorities have the confidence to take on the really thorny issues around paring back debt and leverage. That very much remains to be seen.

     

    Top three challenges in the coming months: containing the property surge, paring back debt and, let's not forget, keeping a lid on capital outflows.

    If the Fed ever does get round to hiking and the dollar resumes its rally, that will put downward pressure on the yuan and test the resolve of SAFE to defend it.

    *  *  *

    The reaction to the data – for now – is a rebound weaker in the Yuan (marginal) and a tick or two in USDJPY and US equity futures. Stephen Innes, a Singapore-based senior trader at foreign exchange company OANDA, said:

    "There was a collective sigh of relief with the key GDP print coming in on the government target.

     

    As the dust settles with the retail sales print looking rather bouncy, the China economy as a whole appears to be in better shape than some of the pessimistic analysts' reads heading into the data. Global risk should remain supported."

  • Hacked Salesforce Presentation Showed No Interest In Twitter, But These 2 Companies May Be "In Play"

    In an amusing turn of events, the WSJ reports that according to a May 2016 presentation that, paradoxically, came from a trove of thousands of former Secretary of State Colin Powell’s emails that were hacked and published in September by DCLeaks, Salesforce was looking at more than a dozen potential acquisition targets that did not include Twitter, which CRM allegedly was close to acquiring only to change its mind in the last minute. Instead, the presentation notes two public companies, previously undisclosed, which may spike in trading tomorrow on hopes of an imminent Salesforce acquisition.

    Titled M&A Target Review and marked “draft and confidential,” the 60-slide document identified 14 possible targets, from design- and marketing-software maker Adobe Systems Inc., which has a current market value of $53.7 billion, slightly larger than Salesforce itself, to Pegasystems Inc., a vendor of business-automation software valued at $2.3 billion. The reason Powell got the presentation is because he sits on Salesforce’s board of directors. Tonight’s revelation will likely open up an entirely new avenue for hackers to pursue, one which involves penetrating the email accounts of board members whose infrastructure may not be as safe and sound as the company on whose board they sit.

    As the WSJ notes, “the presentation provides a peek into the kind of discussions around deal making that many big companies have, almost always in private. It was sent to directors ahead of a board meeting on May 20, amid a particularly active M&A period for the tech industry generally and in particular for Salesforce, which agreed to acquire nine companies for a total of $3.8 billion between February and September of this year.”

    The presentation focused on Salesforce’s attempt to acquire LinkedIn, with which it was in exclusivity and which had the internal codename of “Project Burgundy.” Ultimately, LinkedIn agreed to be acquired by Microsoft in a $196/share transaction worth $26.2 billion.  “We were closer than we realized—maybe a $105 cash plus $105 stock would have done it!” Mr. Benioff wrote, referring to LinkedIn.

    But what is even more interesting, and what will be actionable information ahead of tomorrow’s open, is that the presentation also highlights two public companies which also have a project names “Sonoma” and “Tuscany”, and which Salesforce was either meeting in May or was considered “In Play.” A third project, “Champagne” involved the formerly public company Demandware, which Salesforce in June agreed to acquire for $2.8 billion.

    The two outstanding companies which will likely spike ahead of tomorrow’s open due to the leaked document’s suggestion Salesforce may still be interested in acquiring, are ServiceNow, aka “Sonoma” a business software firm with a current market value around $12.4 billion, and Tableau Software which makes data visualization software, aka Tuscany.

    There were various other companies listed in the hacked slide deck:

    The leaked document also appears to indicate that some of the technology companies mentioned may have been for sale at the time. Like other companies on the list that have since been sold, Tableau is marked “In Play.”

    Some of the potential targets have since been acquired by other companies. Marketing automation firm Marketo Inc. soon after the presentation said that Vista Equity Partners had agreed to buy it for $1.79 billion. Salesforce rival Oracle Corp. in June agreed to acquire NetSuite Inc., for $9.3 billion, a deal that still awaits approval by NetSuite shareholders.

     

    And data-visualization firm Qlik Technologies Inc. later was purchased by Thoma Bravo, a private-equity firm, for $3 billion. Salesforce ultimately bought BeyondCore, a competitor of Qlik and Tableau, for about $110 million.

     

    Salesforce clearly viewed some of the companies listed as long shots. Box Inc., which offers online file-sharing and collaboration services, and Zendesk Inc., a maker of customer-service software, appear on the list with the note “CEO has no interest.” Similarly, human resources software provider Workday Inc. is noted as “less interested.” It isn’t clear which parties lacked interest.

    And just like that Wall Street has found a new focus for future “due diligence” – hacked email dumps.

    The full 60-page hacked slideshow is shown below.

  • Saudis, China Dump Treasuries; Foreign Central Banks Liquidate A Record $346 Billion In US Paper

    One month ago, when we last looked at the Fed's update of Treasuries held in custody, we noted something troubling: the number dropped sharply, declining by over $27.5 billion in one week, the biggest weekly drop since January 2015, pushing the total amount of custodial paper to $2.83 trillion, the lowest since 2012. One month later, we refresh this chart and find that in the latest weekly update, foreign central banks continued their relentless liquidation of US paper held in the Fed's custody account, which tumbled by another $22.3 billion in the past week, pushing the total amount of custodial paper to $2.805 trillion, another fresh post-2012 low.


     

    Then today, in addition to the Fed's custody data, we also got the latest monthly Treasury International Capital data, which showed that the troubling trend presented last one month ago, has accelerated. Recall that a month ago,  we reported that in the latest 12 months we have observed a not so stealthy, in fact quite massive $343 billion in Treasury selling by foreign central banks in the period July 2015- July 2016, something truly unprecedented in size and scope.

    Fast forward to today when in the latest monthly update, that of July, we find that what until a month ago was "merely" a record $343 billion in offshore central bank sales in the LTM period ending July 30, one month later this number has risen to a new all time high $346.4 billion, or well over a third of a trillion in Treasuries sold in the past 12 months. 

    Among the biggest sellers – on a market-price basis – not surprisingly was China, which in July "sold" $34 billion in US paper (the actual underlying number while different, as this particular series is adjusted for Mark to Market variations, will be similar), the biggest monthly dump going back to 2012, and bringing its total to $1.185 trillion, the lowest total since 2012.

    It wasn't just China: Saudi Arabia also continued to sell its TSY holdings, and in August its stated holdings (which again have to be adjusted for MTM), dropped from $96.5BN to $93Bn, the lowest since the summer of 2014.

    As we pointed out one month ago, what is becoming increasingly obvious is that both foreign central banks, sovereign wealth funds, reserve managers, and virtually every other official institution in possession of US paper, is liquidating their holdings at a very troubling pace. In some cases, like China, this is to offset devaluation pressure; in others such as Saudi Arabia, it is to provide the funds needed to offset the collapse of the petrodollar, and to backstop the country's soaring budget deficit.

    So who are they selling to? The answer, at least for now, is private demand, in other words just like in the stock market the retail investor is the final bagholder, so when it comes to US Treasuries, "private investors" both foreign and domestic are soaking up hundreds of billions in central bank holdings. We wonder if they would do that knowing who is selling to them.

    Meanwhile, while just two months ago yields had tumbled to near all time lows, suddenly the picture is inverted, and long-yields are suddenly surging on concerns the BOJ, the Fed, and maybe even the ECB will soon taper their purchases of the long end.

    What happens if in addition to the relentless selling from foreign official institutions, private sellers also declare a buyer's strike. The answer? More Fed monetization of US debt will be the most likely outcome, aka more QE. We bring this up because, amusingly, the Fed is still harboring some naive hope it can/will raise rates in the coming week and/or months.

     

  • From 'Socialist Utopia' To 'Silence Of The Lambs' – Venezuela's Overcrowded Prisons Devolve Into Cannibalism

    Once a flagship socialist nation, Venezuela has now devolved into complete chaos as declining oil revenue has resulted in economic ruin, massive inflation, food shortages and spikes in violent crime.  The increasing criminal activity has led to massive overcrowding of Venezuelan jails where felons have been forced to live in squalid conditions.

    According to the Independent, one such overcrowded facility was Táchira Detention Center where 350 inmates were housed despite the facility’s capacity for only 120 people.  Earlier this month, the adverse living conditions, including insufficient rations for inmates, at the facility resulted in riots that devolved into complete chaos as numerous visitors were taken hostage and 2 inmates were “stabbed, hanged to bleed, and then fed to the detainees.”  The gruesome event was orchestrated by a man named Dorancel Vargas (aka “People Eater) who was jailed in 1999 for cannibalism.

    Juan Carlos Herrara told local media his son, Juan Carlos Herrera Jr, was stabbed, hanged, dismembered and then eaten at the Táchira Detention Center.

     

    According to reports, 350 men had been crammed into the detention centre, which has a capacity of 120.

     

    Speaking to reporters on Monday, after a visit to the prison three days after the mutiny had subsided, Mr Herrara said: “One of those who was with him when he was murdered saw everything that happened.

     

    My son and two others were taken by 40 people, stabbed, hanged to bleed, and then Dorancel butchered them to feed all detainees,” referring to the notorious Dorancel “people-eater” Vargas – jailed in 1999 for cannibalism.

     

    “The [inmate] with whom I spoke to told me that he was beaten with a hammer [in order] to force him to eat the remains of the two boys.

     

    “I beg you to give me at least one bone so we can bury him and relieve some of this pain.”

     

    “They cut them up and fed them to several [of the fellow inmates], they made the bones disappear. Dorancel cut the flesh.”

     

    Of course, we have written numerous times recently about the devolving economic crisis in Venezuela that has resulted in severe shortages of food, clean water, electricity, medicines and hospital supplies all of which have resulted in a desperate population which has resorted to the black market and violence for survival.

    Below is a good recap of the current situation from a recent post.

    * * *

    Submitted by Susan Warner via The Gatestone Institute,

    For many Venezuelans, by every economic, social and political measure, their nation is unravelling at breakneck speed.

    Today, a once comfortable middle-class Venezuelan father is scrambling desperately to find his family’s next meal — sometimes hunting through garbage for salvageable food. The unfortunate 75% majority of Venezuelans already suffering extreme poverty are reportedly verging on starvation.

    Darkness is falling on Hugo Chavez’s once-famous “Bolivarian revolution” that some policy experts, only a short time ago, thought would never end.

    In a 2007 study on the Chavez years for the Washington, DC-based Center for Economic and Policy Research, Mark Weisbrot and Luis Sandoval wrote:

    “[a]t present it does not appear that the current economic expansion is about to end any time in the near future. The gains in poverty reduction, employment, education and health care that have occurred in the last few years are likely to continue along with the expansion.”

    While it was not so long ago that many people heralded Venezuela as Latin America’s successful utopian Socialist experiment, something has gone dreadfully wrong as the revolution’s Marxist founder, Hugo Chavez, turned his Chavismo dream into an economic nightmare of unimaginable proportions.

    The question of whether Socialism can be an effective economic system was famously raised when Margaret Thatcher said of the British Labor Party:

    “I think they’ve made the biggest financial mess that any government’s ever made in this country for a very long time, and Socialist governments traditionally do make a financial mess. They always run out of other people’s money. It’s quite a characteristic of them. They then start to nationalise everything, and people just do not like more and more nationalisation, and they’re now trying to control everything by other means.”

    In short: “The trouble with Socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money.”

    When President Nicolas Maduro inherited the Venezuelan Socialist “dream”, in April of 2013, just one month after Chavez died, he was facing a mere 53% inflation rate. Today the Venezuelan bolivar is virtually worthless, and inflation is creeping to 500% with expectations of much more. A recent Washington Post report stated:

    ” …markets expect Venezuela to default on its debt in the very near future. The country is basically bankrupt. It is not easy for a nation to go bankrupt with the largest oil reserves in the world, but Venezuela has managed it. How? Well, a combination of bad luck and worse policies. The first step was when Hugo Chávez’s socialist government started spending more money on the poor, with everything from two-cent gasoline to free housing. That may all seem like it’s a good idea in general — but only as long as there’s money to spend. And by 2005 or so, Venezuela didn’t have any.”

    Chavez had the good fortune to die just before the grim reaper showed up on Venezuela’s doorstep. According to policy specialist Jose Cardenas:

    “What began as a war against the ‘squalid’ oligarchy in order to build what he called ’21st-century socialism’ — cheered on as he was by many leftists from abroad — has collapsed into an unprecedented heap of misery and conflict.”

    Maduro is doubling down on the failed Chavismo economic and social policies that have contributed to an inflationary crisis not seen since the days of the 1920’s Weimar Republic in Germany, when the cost of a loaf of bread was a wheelbarrow full of cash.

    Demonstrations and public cries for food are the unpleasant evidence of a once-prosperous society being torn apart by the very largess that marked its utopian ideals less than a decade ago.

    There are dire reports of people waiting in supermarket lines all day, only to discover that expected food deliveries never arrived and the shelves are empty.

    In desperation, some middle class families have organized online barter clubs as helpless citizens seek to trade anything for diapers and baby food, powdered milk, medicines, toilet paper and other essentials missing from store shelves or available only on the black market for double and triple already impossibly inflated prices..

    There are horrific tales of desperate people slaughtering zoo animals to provide their only meal of the day. Even household pets are targeted as a much-needed source for food. This is a desperate time for a desperate people.

    As things continue to worsen, President Maduro, unfortunately, is doubling down on the proven failed policies and philosophies of “Bolivarian Socialism,” while diverting attention away from the crisis — pointing fingers at so-called “enemies” of Venezuela such as the United States, Saudi Arabia and others.

    Efforts to convince Maduro to enlist help from outside have failed, according to a report in the Catholic magazine, Crux:

    Maduro has refused to accept help from international charitable organizations, including the Vatican-sponsored Caritas Internationalis, which through different affiliates has tried to send medicine and food.

     

    “Denying that there’s a crisis and refusing to let the world send medicine and food is not possible,” said Cardinal Jorge Urosa Savino, archbishop of Caracas.

     

    The prelate believes that Maduro is refusing to accept help in an attempt to hide the “very grave situation of total shortage,” which far from improving, he said, continues to deteriorate.

    According to Breitbart:

    “The Venezuelan Episcopal Conference, the organization of the nation’s Catholic bishops, issued a scathing statement condemning president Maduro for giving the military full control of the nation’s food supply, accusing him of being at the helm of a devastating “moral crisis” and crippling every aspect of life in Venezuela.”

    In what some economists have been calling a “death spiral”, the government’s failed economic policies are at the same time causing and trying to stem a runaway inflation with price-fixing policies which, in turn, are triggering shortages. Maduro is strongly urging businesses and farmers to sell their goods at severe losses, forcing shut-downs when the cost of doing business becomes prohibitive.

    According to a recent Bloomberg report, the black market is thriving because goods are unavailable at prices fixed by the government. There are reports of ordinary people quitting inadequate-paying jobs to set up black market operations, hoping to be able to make enough to sustain life.

    A dozen eggs was last reported to cost $150, and the International Monetary Fund “predicts that inflation in Venezuela will hit 720% this year. That might be an optimistic assessment, according to some local economic analysts, who expect the rate to reach as high as 1,200%.”

    According to a Bloomberg report from April:

    “In a tale that highlights the chaos of unbridled inflation, Venezuela is scrambling to print new bills fast enough to keep up with the torrid pace of price increases. Most of the cash, like nearly everything else in the oil-exporting country, is imported. And with hard currency reserves sinking to critically low levels, the central bank is doling out payments so slowly to foreign providers that they are foregoing further business.

     

    “Venezuela, in other words, is now so broke that it may not have enough money to pay for its money.”

    In the midst of this galloping cataclysm, there is no shortage of pundits who simplistically assert that the catastrophe is caused solely by the international collapse of oil prices. However, according to Justin Fox at Bloomberg:

    “The divergence between Venezuela’s revenue and spending started long before (the 2014) oil-price collapse. When oil prices hit their all-time high in July 2008, government revenue — 40 percent of which comes directly from oil — was already falling. The main problem was Venezuelan oil production, which dropped from 3.3 million barrels a day in 2006 to 2.7 million in 2011. It was still at 2.7 million in 2014, according to the latest BP Statistical Review of World Energy.”

     

    “Venezuela isn’t running out of oil. Its proven reserves have skyrocketed since 2000 as geologists have learned more about the heavy crude of the Orinoco Belt. But getting at that oil will take a lot of resources and expertise, both things that Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA, best known in the U.S. for its Citgo subsidiary), has been lacking in since Chavez initiated a sort of hostile takeover starting in the early 2000s. First he kicked out 18,000 workers and executives, 40 percent of the company’s workforce, after a strike. Then he started demanding control of PDVSA’s joint ventures with foreign oil companies. One could interpret this in the most Chavez-friendly way possible — he was aiming for a more just allocation of his nation’s resources — and still conclude that he made it harder for PDVSA to deliver the necessary tax revenue.”

    Cronyism and corruption prevailed under Chavez when oil was selling at almost $200 a barrel — at a time when Venezuela could have put some money away for the inevitable rainy day. But President Hugo Chavez and successor president Maduro, were busy buying votes and consolidating power with free giveaways, according to Michael Klare in The Nation.

    Behind the doom and gloom Venezuela’s collapse is the continuing specter of street crime and murder, according to Time.com in a May 2016 report:

    “The country’s runaway murder rate is just one of the factors driving opposition to President Nicolas Maduro in a country where shortages of food and basic goods are chronic, inflation is running rampant and the government is jailing political prisoners. But it serves as a bloody illustration of just how close to outright societal collapse Venezuela has come since the end of the 20th century, as gangs, guerrillas and militia defend their turfs and traditional authority structures fall by the wayside.”

    Venezuela’s crime rate is one of the highest in the world. Called the world’s most homicidal nation, Venezuela has more than street crime, thuggery and murder. Drug cartels, black marketeers, narcoterrorists, white collar criminals and money launderers are unfortunate hallmarks of the Chavez/Maduro legacy.

    The ruin of this once prosperous, oil-rich nation might be a harbinger for other nations, such as the United States, which may be tempted into believing that Socialist giveaway policies actually can provide the promise of a free lunch for longer than the next election cycle. Or might that be all many politicians need or want?

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Today’s News 18th October 2016

  • "By Way Of Deception, Thou Shalt Lose Your Empire"

    Authored by The Saker,

     For nothing is hidden that will not be made manifest, nor is anything secret that will not be known and come to light
    Holy Gospel according to Saint Luke (8:17)

     

    There’s an old saying in Tennessee — I know it’s in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can’t get fooled again.
    George W Bush

    In April of 2014 I wrote an article entitled “How the Ukrainian crisis will eventually bring down the AngloZionist Empire” in which I made a list of the similarities between the Soviet Union of the 1980s and Obama’s USA and wrote the following:

    What the AngloZionist are openly and publicly defending in the Ukraine is the polar opposite of what they are supposed to stand for. That is an extremely dangerous thing to do for any regime and the AngloZionist Empire is no exception to that rule.

     

    Empire often crumble when their own people become disillusioned and disgusted with massive discrepancy between what the ruling elites say and what they do. And as a result, it is not so much that the Empire is faced with formidable enemies as it is the fact that nobody is willing to stand up – nevermind die – in defense of it.

    Over two years later, watching the Presidential race between Trump and Hillary I am amazed to see how deep and “in your face” the habit of lying, denying the obvious, deceiving and otherwise misrepresenting has permeated the US political discourse.

    First and foremost, there is the absolutely unabashed way the corporate Ziomedia is bashing Trump without even so much as a pretense of objectivity or truthfulness. Of course, I always knew that the US propaganda machine was lying and that the media was owned by the US deep state, but at least there was this thin veneer or pseudo-objectivity, of having “both sides” heard. Now this is over. When dealing with Trump, we have Orwell’s “Two Minutes of Hate” but spread over 24/7. Not that Trump does not deserve some of it, he sure does, but compared to how real scumbags like the Clintons are treated, the lynching of Trump is, I believe, unprecedented and unique. Why does it matter? Because now the masks have been taken off, the pretenses removed, and what you see is the true face of the corporate media as it always was: hateful, hypocritical and totally corrupted. And since a truly free and independent media is central to a functioning democracy, then the total corruption of the media in the USA is also the proof that this country does not have a functioning democracy.

    Second, there are the completely surreal events happening in Syria: the US betrayal of the agreement signed with Russia, the US threats to attack Syria (in total illegality), the crocodile tears about the humanitarian situation in Aleppo (and the blind eye to Yemen), the mind-blowing hypocrisy of the USA wanting to take the Syrians and the Russians to an international criminal court for war crimes, the now absolutely open support for al-Qaeda (aka al-Nusra, aka Jabhat Fateh al-Sham aka Daesh) and the threats to arm them, the open threats by Admiral Kirby to have Russian aircraft shot down, Russian cities bombed and Russians soldiers come back in body bags – we now see an Administration which has gone completely “mental” over Syria and which does not even know what it is doing. To say that the 1000-4000 US servicemen and contractors currently deployed in Syria are “serving their country” or “defending democracy” or “our way of life” is simply laughable and everybody knows that. But nobody says a word about it. In fact, their presence in Syria is hardly ever mentioned.

    This Kafkaesque slouching towards war with Russia is simply never discussed by any pundit or media outlet. It’s like it’s not happening, but of course it is happening, right before our eyes. The Russian officials speak about this every day, so does the Russian media, it is one of the most discussed topics on TV, and yet in the “land of the brave home of the free” this is a kind of Orwellian “untopic” which, by consensus, has no existence, no reality and no relevance: The Neocons’ crazy policies risk turning the USA into a gigantic pile of radioactive ashes, but the topic which preoccupies everybody is Trump’s potty-mouth about women.

    I don’t know about you, but I see more nobility in the Titanic’s chamber orchestra playing the waltz “Songe d’Automne” as long as the ship could still float then in the pathetic spectacle which the (equally sinking) AngloZionist Empire offers to us today.

    On the external front, the Empire is also doubling down on its lies. Here are a few headlines which were recently seen in 5th columnist newspapers in Russia and their colleagues abroad:

    These are just a few recent examples. Such garbage is published by the pro-western “yellow” press in Russia and by the western corporate media on an almost daily basis.

    Of course, the Neocons have always ruled “by way of deception”, as did the Anglo rulers of the British Empire, but in modern Russia they are now hitting a number of obstacles which greatly complicates their work:

    1) Putin has done an excellent job slowly but surely booting out the worst russophobes from the main Russian TV and radio channels. Of course, some are left, very deliberately (I explain the reason for that in detail here) but they surely don’t control the media like they did in the 1990s.

     

    2) In the age of the Internet, it takes just days to debunk the lies of Uncle Sam, the Neocons or the Russian 5th columnists (for the latest example see here).

     

    3) Russians remember the 1990s and they follow very closely what is happening across the border in the Nazi occupied Ukraine and they realize that what the Ukraine is undergoing today is what Russia had to suffer in the 1990s and would have to live through again if the pro-western forces ever came back to power. In a way, you could say that the Russians have been “vaccinated” against the AngloZionist propaganda.

    I think that while the situation is still much worse in the USA, there are also some very encouraging signs that the lies are beginning to wear off. While there are still millions who believe the Idiot-Box or simply don’t have the energy to think any more, there are also millions who are thoroughly disillusioned, cynical, disgusted and angry at the parasitic elites which rule over them. By and large, the corporate media is deeply distrusted. As for journalists, they are about as respected as lawyers and medical doctors (amazing how these two noble professions got completely discredited by their practitioners in just a few decades!). We can speculate for hours over whether Trump still has a chance to win the next election or not, but I submit that, judging by their panicked actions, the Neocons clearly believe that he might. And that terrifies them. The are clearly afraid that those whom they consider as their dumb serfs might revolt against their rule (as has happened so many times in history).

    I know that there are many out there who do not trust Trump. And I agree with them. I don’t trust him either. However, while I do not “trust” Trump, I admit that it is possible that he really might be a President who would put the interests of the American people first, and the interests of the AngloZionist Empire a distant second. The history of empires is full of situations were one part of the ruling class turned against the other one (SA vs SS, Trotskists vs Stalinists, etc.). There is no reason to dismiss a priori the possibility that there is a schism inside the US deep state, that one part wants to save the Empire as the expense of the USA (the Neocons) and another wants to save the USA at the expense of the Empire (the Trump supporters). Again, I did not say that this is likely, only that I admit that this is possible. And if that is really a possibility, could it not also be possible that the American people would deliberately vote against their own mass media and political elites, just like the British people chose the Brexit in total defiance of the official doxa? That all the Trump-bashing actually could help him get elected?

    Could it be that after losing Russia to their lies, the Neocons will now lose the United States to their apparently incurable propensity to rule by deception?

    For years I used to dismiss the US Presidential elections like a joke, a fraud and an exercise in collective brainwashing. This time around, and for the first time, I think that there is a possibility, however slim, that something of importance might be decided on November 8. The fact that such a possibility even appeared is, by itself, quite remarkable and it is yet another sign of how deep the systemic crisis of the Empire has become. As for the parasites who form the 1% who run this Empire, they are clearly in a panic mode, probably because they are much better informed than most of us of how truly catastrophic the situation really is.

    A Hillary victory will not change any of it. It will only make it much, much more dangerous. With Trump, there is at least a possibility of a gradual, more or less organized withdrawal, a drawdown of sorts, a transition of the USA from being a wannabe World Hegemon into a USA as a major, but “normal”, country. Very much like Russia today, I hope.

    With Hillary we can be sure the Empire will double down, continue to lie to itself and the rest of the planet, and deny it all, making the end inevitably very violent, possibly catastrophic. I would not put it past the “crazies in the basement” to prefer a nuclear holocaust (their favorite topic!) to a liberation of the USA, and the rest of the planet, from their demonic power. It is therefore our duty to prevent them from succeeding from destroying our planet.

  • BaN THe BRoAD…

    H BOMB

  • The Real Humanitarian Crisis Is Not Aleppo

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    Why do we hear only of the “humanitarian crisis in Aleppo” and not of the humanitarian crisis everywhere else in Syria where the evil that rules in Washington has unleashed its ISIL mercenaries to slaughter the Syrian people? Why do we not hear about the humanitarian crisis in Yemen where the US and its Saudi Arabian vassal are slaughtering Yemeni women and children? Why don’t we hear about the humanitarian crisis in Libya where Washington destroyed a country leaving chaos in its place? Why don’t we hear about the humanitarian crisis in Iraq, ongoing now for 13 years, or the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan now 15 years old?

    The answer is that the crisis in Aleppo is the crisis of Washington losing its ISIL mercenaries to the Syrian army and Russian air force. The jihadists sent by Obama and the killer bitch Hillary (“We came, we saw, he died”) to destroy Syria are being themselves destroyed. The Obama regime and the Western presstitutes are trying to save the jihadists by covering them in the blanket of “humanitarian crisis.”

    Such hypocrisy is standard fare for Washington. If the Obama regime gave a hoot about “humanitarian crisis,” the Obama regime would not have orchestrated humanitarian crisis in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and Yemen.

    We are in the middle of a presidential campaign in the US and no one has asked why the US is determined to overthrow a democratically elected Syrian government that is supported by the Syrian people.

    No one has asked why the White House Fool is empowered to remove the president of Syria by siccing US-supplied jihadists, which the presstitutes misrepresent as “moderate rebels,” on the Syrian people.

    Washington, of course, has no acceptable answer to the question, and that is why the question is not asked.

    The answer to the question is that Washington’s strategy for destabilizing Iran and then the Muslim provinces of the Russian Federation, former Soviet central Asia, and the Muslim province of China is to replace stable governments with the chaos of jihadism. Iraq, Libya, and Syria had stable secular societies in which the government’s strong hand was used to prevent sectarian strife between Muslim sects. By overthrowing these secular governments and the current effort to overthrow Assad, Washington released the chaos of terrorism.

    There was no terrorism in the Middle East until Washington brought it there with invasions, bombings, and torture.

    Jihadists such as those that Washington used to overthrow Gaddafi appeared in Syria when the British Parliament and the Russian government blocked Obama’s planned invasion of Syria. As Washington was prevented from directly attacking Syria, Washington used mercenaries. The prostitutes that pretend to be an American media obliged Washington with the propaganda that the jihadist terrorists are Syrian democrats rebelling against “the Assad dictatorship.” This transparant and blatant lie has been repeated so many times that it now is confused with truth.

    Syria has no connection whatsoever to Washington’s original justification for introducing violence into the Middle East. The original justification was 9/11 which was used to invade Afghanistan on the fabrication that the Taliban was shielding Osama bin Laden, the “mastermind,” who at the time was dying of renal failure in a Pakistani hospital. Osama bin Laden was a CIA asset who was used against the Soviets in Afghanistan. He was not the perpetrator of 9/11. And most certainly, neither were the Taliban.

    But the Western presstitutes covered up for the Bush regime’s lie, and the public was deceived with the phrase that we must “defeat them abroad before they attack us at home.”

    Of course, Muslims were not going to attack us at home. If Muslims are a threat, why does the US government keep bringing so many of them here as refugees from Washington’s wars against Muslims?

    9/11 was the neoconservatives “new Pearl Harbor” that they wrote they needed in order to launch their wars in the Middle East. George W. Bush’s first Secretary of the Treasury said that the topic of Bush’s first cabinet meeting was the invasion of Iraq. This was prior to 9/11. In other words, Washington’s wars in the Middle East were planned prior to 9/11.

    The neoconservatives are zionists. By reducing the Middle East to chaos they achieve both of their goals. They remove organized opposition to Israeli expansion, and they create jihadism that can be used to destabilize countries such as Russia, Iran, and China that are in the way of their exercise of unilateral power, which, they believe, the Soviet collapse bequeathed to the “indispensable nation,” the USA.

    Osama bin Laden, the alleged 9/11 mastermind, was dying, not directing a terror war against the US from a cave in Afghanistan. The Taliban were focused on establishing their rule in Afghanistan, not on attacking the West. After blowing up weddings, funerals, and children’s soccer games, Washington moved on to Iraq. There was no sign of Iraqi belligerence toward the US. UN weapons inspectors said that there were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, but Washington did not hear. The whores who comprise the American media helped the Bush regime create the image of a nuclear mushroom cloud going up over America if the US did not invade Iraq.

    Iraq had no nuclear weapons and everyone knew it, but facts were irrelevant. There was an agenda at work, an undeclared agenda. To advance its agenda that the government did not dare reveal, the government used fear. “We have to kill them over there before they kill us over here.”

    So Iraq, a stable, progressive country was reduced to ruins.

    Libya was next. Gaddafi would not join Washington’s Africa Command. Moreover, China was developing the oil fields in eastern Libya. Washington was already troubled by Russia’s presence in the Mediterranean and did not want China there also. So Gaddafi had to go.

    Next Assad was set up with faked evidence that he had used chemical weapons against the rebellion that Washington had started. No one believed the transparent Washington lie, not even the British Parliament. Unable to find support to cover an invasion, Killary the Psychopath sent the jihadists Washington used to destroy Libya to overthrow Assad.

    The Russians, who until this point had been so naive and gullible as to trust Washington, finally figured out that the instability that Washington was brewing was directed at them. The Russian government decided that Syria was their red line and, at the request of the Syrian government, intervened against the Washington-supported jihadists.

    Washington is outraged and is now threatening to commit yet another criminal violation of the Nuremberg Standard with blatant aggression against Syria. Such an ill-advised step would bring Washington into military conflict with Russia and by implication with China. Before Europeans enable Washington to initiate such a dangerous conflict, they had best consider the warning from Sergey Karaganov, a member of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Foreign Policy and Defense council: “Russia will never again fight on its own territory. If NATO initiates an encroachment against a nuclear power like ourselves, NATO will be punished.”

    That the government of the United States is criminally insane should frighten every person on earth. Killary-Hillary is committed to conflict with Russia. Regardless, Obama, the presstitutes, and the Democratic and Republican establishments are doing everything in their power to put into the Oval Office the person who will maximize conflict with Russia.

    The life of the planet is in the hands of the criminally insane. This is the real humanitarian crisis.

    Note: Lt. General Michael Flynn, director of the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency stated in an interview that the creation of ISIS was “a willful Washington decision.” See, for example:
    https://www.rt.com/usa/312050-dia-flynn-islamic-state/ Also: http://russia-insider.com/en/secret-pentagon-report-reveals-us-created-isis-tool-overthrow-syrias-president-assad/ri7364

    The DIA warned that ISIS would result in a Salafist principality over parts of Iraq and Syria. http://www.judicialwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Pg.-291-Pgs.-287-293-JW-v-DOD-and-State-14-812-DOD-Release-2015-04-10-final-version11.pdf The warning went unheeded as the neoconservative Obama regime saw ISIS as a strategic asset to be used against Syria.

  • Ford To Idle Four Factories Due To Slowing Car Demand, Rising Inventories

    Over the weekend we recapped some of the less than impressive moments in the recent US car industry history, which suddenly appears to be bombarded with a
    barrage of bad news: starting with Ford’s disastrous August sales when
    the company admitted “sales have reached a plateau“, continuing to the surge in delinquent subprime auto borrowers hitting nearly a 7 year high as the marginal creditworthy car buyers disappears, then noting the record $4,000 in industry-wide new car incentives
    in September as preventing a plunge in last month’s auto sales, and
    recalling last week’s downgrade of the US auto sector by Goldman which said that the US “cycle has peaked“…

    …one would almost think that a respite from the bad news was in order. One would be wrong.

    As a result of slowing demand and declining US auto sales coupled with growing inventory, Ford Motor is halting one of two plants that builds its top-selling F-150 pickup as it idles four factories this month amid slowing U.S. auto sales.

    As Bloomberg reports, starting this week, Ford is shutting its Louisville, Kentucky, factory building the Escape and Lincoln MKC sport utility vehicles, as well as two plants in Mexico that make the Fusion sedan and Fiesta subcompact, according to an e-mailed statement. Next week, the second-largest U.S. automaker will close the F-150 factory near Kansas City for seven days. And starting Oct. 31, the Louisville plant will be idled for another week.

    The plant closings follow last week’s shutdown of Ford’s Mustang factory in Michigan after sales of the sports car plunged 32% in September.

    Contrary to the popular refrain of a strong economy, US auto sales are slowing as many analysts predict the industry won’t match last year’s record of 17.5 million cars and light trucks. As we reported recently, Ford CEO Mark Fields has said the U.S. auto market has plateaued and that showroom sales are weakening. “We said we expected the overall retail industry to decline in the second half of the year,” Kelli Felker, a Ford spokeswoman, said in the statement. “We also said to expect to see some production adjustments in the second half — this is one of them.

    At least they stick to their word.

    As a race to the bottom begins amogn the carmakers – F-series sales fell 2.6% last month as a pickup price war heated up – consumers will be the winners, able to pick up vehciles at increasingly lower prices. Escape sales dropped 12% in September as Ford faced competitive pressure from the Toyota RAV4 and Honda CR-V. Fusion sales plunged 18% and Fiesta was off 40% as car sales continue to languish with low fuel prices pushing buyers into trucks and SUVs.

    So far trucks, picksups and SUVs have been the silver lining in an other wise dreary automaker landscape, rising as the rest of the lightvehicle segment stagnated, However, should gasoline prices keep rising, that too is about to change in adverse direction.

    Meanwhile, Felker said Ford is trying to match production with demand. Inventories have been swelling on the models the automaker is idling. The company had 93 days supply of F-series pickups, which includes the F-150, at the end of September, up from 83 days a year earlier, according to researcher Autodata Corp.

    According to Bloomberg, Escape inventory grew to 64 days, from 50 a year earlier, while Lincoln MKC climbed to 96 days from 91 last year, according to Autodata. A 60-day supply is considered optimal. Ford had 72 days supply of Fusion sedans at the end of last month, up from 51 a year earlier, and it had enough inventory of the Fiesta to last 77 days, up from 56 in September of 2015, according to Autodata.

    Worst of all, while the rest of the US manufacturing sector has been in secular decline, the auto industry was perhaps the last shining light for battered US manufacturing during the past several years. However, if demand for cars continues to collapse, forcing supply to follow suit, it is only a matter of time before the US manufacturing recession returns with a vengeance, and at the worst possible time: when not even the US service sector can hinder the realization that the US economy is on the verge of contracting.

    Finally, here are some auto-related charts courtesy of Goldman Sachs.

     

  • A Vote For Treason

    Submitted by TL Davis via ChristianMerc blog,

    It has taken several months and a number of email dumps from Wikileaks to finally figure out what this presidential election is all about. There are only two ways to vote, for Donald Trump or for Hillary Clinton. But neither of those are what one would be voting for.

    A vote for Donald Trump is a vote to resist the massive corruption of government, a vote against globalism, against "global warming" or "climate change" theology; it is a vote against media collusion and interference in politics. A vote for Donald Trump is not a vote for the person at all, that is why despite the media onslaught of negative stories about him as a person carries no weight with those who support him, because they don't support him at all, they support what he represents, which is a chance to hold Hillary Clinton responsible for her crimes and therefore all of the crooked politicians of 2012 who coerced votes out of their Republican base only to turn on them the next day.

    Likewise, a vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote for a transformed America, a quasi-police state where the government intervenes in business and forces some out of business while subsidizing other businesses that could not possibly sustain themselves without massive graft and media brainwashing. All of those businesses would be held hostage to a criminal organization originating from the White House. It would be a vote to end forever the concept of individual rights. Hillary Clinton would do no less than continue the work of the Obama Administration to destroy individual rights and nearly half of the nation is in favor of just that. It would be a continued replacement of the voters who value the principles of the founding of this nation with those who have no like expectation. It is a vote for the sudden disappearance of websites like this one.

    The outcome is bigger than that. The next president will likely be a true war-time president. As Vladimir Zhirinovsky claimed a vote for Hillary Clinton would be a vote for war. War with Russia may be inevitable and irrespective of the election as it seems likely that war will begin before the next president can take office. But, there is the question of who would be more likely to effectively fight that war. More than that, would our military leaders be willing to follow the orders of a criminal like Hillary Clinton running a crime organization out of Washington? Would they put their lives in jeopardy knowing the cold-blooded actions she demonstrated in Benghazi? Or, would they likely recognize that their lives meant nothing to the Commander in Chief?

    So many things are now known about the media establishment and the collusion it shares with the Clinton campaign. More things are being found out every day as Wikileaks provides proof of the public perception. The people were right, there is a conspiracy to keep them uninformed and misinformed to protect Democrat politicians from facing scandals. It is clear now that there will never be a Democrat held accountable for their actions and therefore the only time Americans can expect to get anything other than abusive and criminal officeholders is if they elect a Republican.

    This is where we get back to a vote for Donald Trump is nothing other than a vote for accountable leadership. A vote for Hillary Clinton is giving up on that ideal. A vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote to abolish the very principles of elected officials, because if their misdeeds can never be told and their abuses never aired, what have we? That we have so many in this nation willing to vote for Hillary tells us all we need to know about the other side, that they have already given up, that they would rather have a totalitarian system. A vote for Hillary is, in effect an act of treason.

  • Deutsche Bank Pays $38 Million To Settle Silver Manipulation Lawsuit

    2016 is shaping up as the year when countless conspiracy theories will be confirmed to be non-conspiracy fact: from central bank rigging of capital markets, to political rigging of elections, to media rigging of public sentiment, and now, commercial bank rigging of silver.

    In short, tinfoil hat-wearing nutjobs living in their parents basement have been right all along.

    Two weeks ago we reported that “In A Major Victory For Gold And Silver Traders, Manipulation Lawsuit Against Gold-Fixing Banks Ordered To Proceed,” however one bank was exempt: Deutsche Bank. The reason why was known since April, when we first reported that Deutsche Bank had agreed to settle the class action lawsuit filed in July 2014 accusing a consortium of banks of plotting to manipulate gold and silver. Among the charges that Deutsche Bank effectively refused to contest were the following:

    • employment of a manipulative device claims
    • bid-rigging, and unjust enrichment.
    • price fixing and unlawful restraint
    • price manipulation claims
    • aiding and abetting and principal-agent claims.

    Briganti’s affidvait provides some more information on the settlement process:

    The negotiations with Deutsche Bank over the material terms of the Settlement took place over several months starting in December 2015 and continuing until the Deutsche Bank Settlement Agreement was executed on September 6, 2016.

     

    Following initial phone calls with Deutsche Bank’s counsel in December 2015, Lowey and Grant & Eisenhofer engaged in lengthy negotiations with Deutsche Bank’s counsel over the material terms of the settlement, including the amount of the settlement consideration, the scope of the cooperation to be provided by the Deutsche Bank Defendants, the scope of the releases, and the circumstances under which the parties would have the right to terminate the settlement.

     

    During the course of the negotiations, Class Counsel presented what we perceived to be the strengths and weaknesses of the claims and defenses, as well as Deutsche Bank’s litigation exposure.

    In February 2016, we reached an agreement with Deutsche Bank on the amount of the settlement, subject to the negotiation of other material terms of the deal. For example, given that this is the first settlement in the case, it was our view that the cooperation provisions of the deal were extremely important to our ability to maximize the overall recovery for the class against the Non-Settling Defendants. The negotiations as to the scope of the cooperation provisions continued for several months.

     

    On April 13, 2016, counsel for Deutsche Bank and Class Counsel signed a Binding Settlement Term Sheet (“Term Sheet”). The Term Sheet set forth the terms on which the parties agreed, subject to the negotiation of a full Settlement Agreement, to settle Plaintiffs’ claims against Deutsche Bank. At the time the Term Sheet was executed, Class Counsel was well-informed about the legal risks, factual uncertainties, potential damages, and other aspects of the strengths and weaknesses of the claims and defenses asserted.

     

    By letter dated April 13, 2016, the Parties reported to the Court via ECF that the Term Sheet had been executed, and advised the Court that the Term Sheet would be superseded by a formal settlement agreement. ECF No. 116.

     

    The parties negotiated the Deutsche Bank Settlement Agreement over the course of the next several months. The negotiations over the terms of the Deutsche Bank Settlement Agreement included various material terms over which the parties had substantial disagreement, requiring significant give and take on both sides. To that end, drafts of the Deutsche Bank Settlement Agreement went back and forth between the parties, and numerous contested issues were raised, negotiated and resolved, including without limitation, continuing negotiations over the scope of Deutsche Bank’s cooperation (see ¶ 4(A)-(G)), the scope of the releases (see ¶ 12 (A)-(C)), and the circumstances under which the parties could terminate the Settlement (see ¶ 21).

     

    Thus, the Deutsche Bank Settlement Agreement, which was executed (along with the Supplemental Agreement) on September 6, 2016, was the culmination of arm’s-length settlement negotiations that had extended over many months.

     

    The Deutsche Bank Settlement was not the product of collusion. Before any financial numbers were discussed in the settlement negotiations and before any demand or counter-offer was ever made, we were well informed about the legal risks, factual uncertainties, potential damages, and other aspects of the strengths and weaknesses of the claims against Deutsche Bank.

     

    The Deutsche Bank Settlement involves a structure and terms that are common in class action settlements in this District. The consideration that Deutsche Bank has agreed to pay is within the range of that which may be found to be fair, reasonable, and adequate at final approval.

    There was just one thing missing: the settlement amount. This afternoon, that too was revealed when according to court filings, Deutsche Bank had agreed to pay $38 million to settle U.S. litigation over allegations it illegally conspired with other banks to fix silver prices at the expense of investors. The settlement, disclosed in papers filed in Manhattan federal court, concludes one of many recent lawsuits in which investors have accused banks of conspiring to rig the precious metal markets. However, until now there was never any formal closure. Today, that closure cost Deutsche Bank $38 million.

    While the amount is tiny for the German bank, now that it is enshrined in case law, it will unleash dozens of similar class action lawsuits, each tweaked a little, and each demanding tens of millions from the gold and silver rigging banks. As Reuters adds, the settlement had been expected since April, though terms had yet to be disclosed. In court papers, lawyers for the investors say the deal will likely be an “ice breaker” that will serve as a catalyst for other banks to settle.

    Vincent Briganti, a lawyer for the investors, said the deal provides “substantial monetary compensation plus cooperation from Deutsche Bank in the continued prosecution of this important case against the non-settling defendants.”

    As a reminder, in the litigation profiled here most recently, investors claimed Deutsche Bank, HSBC Holdings Plc and Bank of Nova Scotia (ScotiaBank) rigged silver prices through a secret daily meeting called the Silver Fix, and accused UBS AG of exploiting that fix.  The alleged conspiracy started by 1999, suppressed prices on roughly $30 billion of silver and silver financial instruments traded each year, and enabled the banks to pocket returns that could top 100 percent annualized, the investors said.

    Earlier this month, U.S. District Judge Valerie Caproni ruled the investors had sufficiently, “albeit barely,” alleged that Deutsche Bank, HSBC and ScotiaBank violated U.S. antitrust law by conspiring to depress the Silver Fix from 2007 to 2013. At the same time, the judge dismissed UBS from the case, saying there was nothing showing it manipulated prices, even if it benefited from distortions.

    The Judge added that the investors could amend their complaint, including against UBS, and a lawyer for the investors has said they planned to do so.

    So who gets to benefit from the settlement?

    We have reason to believe that there are at least hundreds of geographically dispersed persons and entities that fall within the Settlement Class definition. The Settlement Class includes traders of COMEX Silver Futures contracts, anyone who traded in physical silver based on the Silver Fix, and traders in various silver derivatives.

    The other beneficiary, of course, is the class of investors, people and “conspiracy theorists” who claimed all along that gold and silver were subject to rigging in various forms throughout the years. Well, you were right. However, we wouldn’t hold much hope for getting any substantial monetary rewards. By the time the settlement is done, there will likely be a few hundred dollars per claimant.

    The good news, however, is that this will only unleash many more such lawsuits, now that the seal has been broken.

    As for the remaining two banks in the class action, HSBC and Bank of Nova Scotia, the next pretrial conference in that lawsuit which was greenlighted two weeks ago is scheduled for October 28, 2016. Those who wish to be present should appear at 3:00 p.m. in courtroom 443 of the Thurgood Marshall Courthouse, 40 Foley Square, New York, NY 10007.

    The Vincent Briganti Declaration is below

  • New Voter Fraud Allegations Surface In Chicago As Multiple People "Offered Bribes For Votes"

    Allegations of voter fraud continue to surface all over the country with the latest example coming from Kankakee County, just outside of Chicago.  According to the Kankakee County State’s Attorney’s office and the Kankakee Daily Journal, multiple people reported being offered “bribes for votes” while the county is also investigating what appears to be “fraudulently executed” mail-in ballots.

    The Kankakee County State’s Attorney’s office says it is investigating possible voting fraud after the clerk’s office reported three complaints from people who said they were offered bribes for votes.

     

    In a news release issued late Tuesday afternoon, Jamie Boyd, the state’s attorney, also said “several” vote-by-mail applications seem to have come from people living outside of Kankakee County.

     

    “This unprecedented action was taken in response to reports of individuals from Chicago offering gifts to potential voters in exchange for a vote for Kate Cloonen, Hillary Clinton and others,” Boyd said in the news release. “Our office takes seriously the obligation to protect the rights of citizens to vote for the candidate of their choice, and to do so without undue influence from special interest groups.

     

    “The investigation will also focus on the authenticity of vote by mail requests. Several applications have been filed with the election authority that appear to be fraudulently executed.”

     

    “These reports of voter fraud in Kankakee are incredibly disturbing,” Pankhurst said. “Fair and honest elections are the bedrock of our democracy. It is truly deplorable when people try to corrupt our system in this manner.”

    Polling Station

     

    Of course, democratic officials in the county responded with their usual defense which is to ignore the voter fraud and instead allege voter suppression by republicans looking to disenfranchise low-income and minority voters

    Cloonen has not responded to the allegations, but local Democrats Gary Ciaccio and Mike Smith, both union reps, and former state Rep. Lisa Dugan, released their own statement on Tuesday, alleging that voters have been illegally turned away from the polls.

     

    “We know many legally registered voters have been turned away from voting over the last few days,” they said in that joint statement. “Since early voting for the 2016 General Election began just a few short days ago, there have been numerous reports and eyewitness accounts of harassment and intimidation by local government officials of residents trying to participate in the democratic process of voting.”

    As we’ve noted several times recently, there have been numerous instances of potential voter fraud surface over the past couple of weeks with dead people found to be voting in Colorado and a Democratic get out the vote operation re-registering dead voters in Virginia.

    Isn’t it curious that all the dead voters seem to be pulling for Democrats?

    Below are a couple of other instances of voter fraud that we’ve noted over just the past couple of weeks.

    * * *

    A previous investigation by CBS Denver found that dozens of deceased Colorado citizens continued voting multiple years after their death…even though Colorado Secretary of State Wayne Williams assured CBS that “it is impossible to vote from the grave legally.”  While we’re disturbed by the voter fraud in Colorado, we’re so glad that the legality of the issue could be cleared up so easily. 

    According to CBS, one of the most glaring cases of voter fraud they found was of Sara Sosa who lived in Colorado Springs. Sosa died on Oct. 14, 2009 but CBS found that she continued to cast her ballot in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013.  Likewise, her husband, Miguel, died on Sept. 26, 2008 but voted later in 2009.

    Colorado’s Secretary of State confirmed the cases of voter fraud discovered by CBS, saying:

    “We do believe there were several instances of potential vote fraud that occurred.  It shows there is the potential for fraud.  It’s not a perfect system. There are some gaps.”

     

    Meanwhile, there is also the case of Andrew Spieles, a student at James Madison University, and apparently “Lead Organizer” for HarrisonburgVOTES, who recently confessed to re-registering 19 deceased Virginians to vote in the 2016 election cycle

    While this should come as a surprise to precisely 0 people, Spieles just happens to be Democrat who, accorded to a deleted FaceBook post, apparently recently ran for Caucus Chair of the Virginia Young Democrats. 

    Harrisonburg Votes

     

    Of course, we’re quite certain that the Soro’s machine will keep throwing massive sums of money at defeating voter I.D. laws while arguing that there  is no evidence of voter fraud…facts apparently have no place in a court room.

  • Podesta's Iran Deal Admission Exposes Tragic Results Of AP's 2013 Treachery

    Submitted by Tony Blumer via NewsBusters.org,

    A search at the Associated Press's main national site on "Podesta Iran" (not in quotes) returns no items relating to a Wikileaks-released email exposing how Hillary Clinton 2016 campaign manager John Podesta agreed with a Republican senator in July 2015 that the deal which had been "negotiated" by the Obama administration with Iran would lead to "a nuclear war in the Persian Gulf." (The word "negotiated" is in quotes because, other than releasing hostages it never should have captured or held, Iran appears not to have given up anything.)

    There's a reason beyond the routine journalistic negligence for which AP is so well-known why it has ignored this (excuse the pun) bombshell. The AP's own self-congratulatory actions contributed to the situation Podesta tersely acknowledged.

    In 2013, the AP hid what it knew about the existence of secret discussions between the Obama administration and Iran concerning the latter country's possession and use of nuclear materials. The Obama administration asked a journalist at another outlet and the AP to keep quiet about what they knew — and they did.

    The AP's Julie Pace went on national TV in November 2013 to revel in how the wire service had kept talks between the U.S. and Iran secret for eight months, leading to what was described then as "The Geneva deal."

    Perhaps the journalists and management at the wire service believed that they were serving some kind of higher good. Everybody with an ounce of common sense knew that Iran was (and still is) interested in building and using nuclear weapons. So maybe they believed that an agreement between the U.S., Iran and other countries might prevent that, and, ultimately, prevent a war involving the use of nukes which might otherwise have occurred.

    What's wrong with keeping a secret about something so important? The starry-eyed idealists at AP, if that was indeed their motivation (one shudders when considering other possible motivations), should know now that they were played.

    Twenty months later, Podesta reacted to a harsh July 2015 statement by Senator Mark Kirk of Illinois about the "deal" Iran and the U.S. had just "negotiated" to, in essence, allow Iran to continue doing almost all of what it had been doing while having the U.S. lift economic sanctions which had been in place on that country for decades. A correspondent with Podesta quoted Kirk, and Podesta responded in a single word: "Yup":

    PodestaOnIranDealYup071515

    Podesta's honesty lays bare the sham nature of the Iran "deal."

    The related November 2013 AP story (excerpted at the related NewsBusters post), which appeared at the time Pace went into her bragging routine on Fox News Sunday, reveals the full extent of what the AP knew — and sat on:

    SECRET US-IRAN TALKS SET STAGE FOR NUKE DEAL

     

    The United States and Iran secretly engaged in a series of high-level, face-to-face talks over the past year, in a high-stakes diplomatic gamble by the Obama administration that paved the way for the historic deal sealed early Sunday in Geneva aimed at slowing Tehran's nuclear program, The Associated Press has learned.

     

    The discussions were kept hidden even from America's closest friends, including its negotiating partners and Israel, until two months ago, and that may explain how the nuclear accord appeared to come together so quickly after years of stalemate and fierce hostility between Iran and the West.

     

    … President Barack Obama personally authorized the talks as part of his effort — promised in his first inaugural address — to reach out to a country the State Department designates as the world's most active state sponsor of terrorism.

    The talks were held in the Middle Eastern nation of Oman and elsewhere with only a tight circle of people in the know, the AP learned. Since March, Deputy Secretary of State William Burns and Jake Sullivan, Vice President Joe Biden's top foreign policy adviser, have met at least five times with Iranian officials.

     

    The last four clandestine meetings, held since Iran's reform-minded President Hassan Rouhani was inaugurated in August, produced much of the agreement later formally hammered out in negotiations in Geneva among the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China, Germany and Iran, said three senior administration officials. All spoke only on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss by name the highly sensitive diplomatic effort.

     

    The AP was tipped to the first U.S.-Iranian meeting in March shortly after it occurred, but the White House and State Department disputed elements of the account and the AP could not confirm the meeting. The AP learned of further indications of secret diplomacy in the fall and pressed the White House and other officials further. As the Geneva talks appeared to be reaching their conclusion, senior administration officials confirmed to the AP the details of the extensive outreach.

    As I wrote at the time: "Translation: They didn't report it until the Obama administration said it would be okay to report it."

    That comment and related posts by others elsewhere generated pushback from the AP's Paul Colford, its Vice President and Director of Media Relations, the very next day. Colford's copout is intensely amusing in light of how willing the wire service has been to act on unsubstantiated stories during this presidential election year:

    Contrary to a number of accounts since Sunday, AP did not sit on the story for several months. We aggressively pursued the story throughout that period, trying everything we could to get it to the wire. In fact, some of the information we were tipped to in March turned out to be inaccurate.

     

    The AP routinely seeks and requires more than one source. Stories should be held while attempts are made to reach additional sources for confirmation or elaboration. In rare cases, one source will be sufficient – when material comes from an authoritative figure who provides information so detailed that there is no question of its accuracy.

    The credibility of Colford's post was shredded by Laura Rozen, a reporter for Al-Monitor. Rosen acknowledged in a tweet that "we both had versions of it (the story of talks occurring) independently and were asked not to publish til end of Iran talks":

    LauraRozenTweetReSittingOnUSiran112413

    As I wrote at the time:

    … if it had been covering any administration other than the current one, AP would have reported that it had evidence that such meetings or talks were or had been taking place, and that administration officials (depending on their actual response) either denied their existence, or would not confirm or deny them.

    That would have been no different than taking an unsubstantiated claim by a woman who says she was groped by Donald Trump and asking him to confirm or deny it, and making the fallout from the claim and the denial the story.

    Thus, it should be obvious that the AP's deference to the Obama administration in 2013 in keeping the Iran talks secret had no purpose but to help the administration advance a deeply unpopular agenda. If AP had done its job and indirectly exposed the existence of the talks in the frequently employed manner just described, the blowback would have been intense and bipartisan — and it knows it.

    Meanwhile, as I wrote, the wire service "deliberately kept their readers, listeners, viewers, subscribing news organizations, and the public they claim to serve in the dark … and did so at the request of … the governments involved."

    As seen in its November 2013 story above, the AP congratulated itself for giving its choice to keep the U.S.-Iran talks secret partial credit for "how the nuclear accord appeared to come together so quickly."

    Now that John Podesta has admitted that even people on the left acknowledge the Obama administration's Iran "deal" will lead to "a nuclear war in the Persian Gulf," I expect the AP to take partial credit when Iran begins engaging in nuclear blackmail in the region — and when the bombs fall.

    Heck of a job, guys.

  • Former German Central Banker Reveals "The Real Danger In Finance"

    How can anyone make sense of today’s markets? That was the oft-asked question at last week's IMF meetings in Washington. As we noted at the time, one of the smarest and most honest answers came not from any finance minister or any IMF report but at a presentation privately offered on the sidelines of the IMF meetings by Axel Weber, former head of the Bundesbank, now chairman of UBS. Weber warned that monetary intervention is causing international spillovers and major disturbances in global markets.

    "They (central banks) have taken on massive interventions in the market, you could almost say that central banks are now the central counterparties in many markets. They are the ultimate buyer,"

     

    "So I think the central bankers need to be very careful that they do not continue to produce disturbances in the markets, which they acknowledge – it's a known side effect – but the perception that the underlying impact of monetary policy outweighs the potential side effect in my view is starting to be wrong," he added.

     

    Since the global financial crash of 2008, central bank policy has focused on buying up bonds in large quantities and cutting interest rates to record lows. The Federal Reserve has since looked to unwind its own policy which focused on the Treasury market and the yield curve, but the Bank of Japan and the ECB's large-scale bond-buying programs continue.

     

    "I don't think a single trader can tell you what the appropriate price of an asset he buys is, if you take out all this central bank intervention," Weber warned, adding that it often meant investors were making bad choices with where to put their money.

    However, as The FT's Gillian Tett details, Mr Weber also believes that, while the banking system looks healthier, markets do not.

    The issue that investors need to understand now is that many “markets” are not true market not true, free, markets because of heavy government intervention.

    To Tett's mind, this point needs to be proclaimed with a megaphone. It is evident in government bond markets, where the central banks of Japan, US and eurozone currently hold a third, a fifth and a tenth of the outstanding local government bonds.

    These distorted markets are increasingly hostage to unfathomable political risk. A decade ago, investors thought (or hoped) they could price western assets by analysing underlying economic values with spreadsheets; political risk was only something that emerging market investors worried about.

     

    Now investors holding US, Japanese or European assets need to ponder questions such as: how much further can central banks take quantitative easing? Are the US and UK governments becoming anti-business? Does the rise of Donald Trump, as well as the Britain’s vote to leave the EU, herald new protectionism?

     

    Most investors are not well equipped for an analysis of this kind. They built their careers by crunching numbers, not pondering social science. They now face an unpredictable and unfathomable world.

     

    To put it another way, the real danger in finance is the not one that tends to be discussed: that banks will topple over (as they did in 2008). It is, rather, the threat that investors and investment groups will be wiped out by wild price swings from an unexpected political shock, be that central bank policy swings, trade bans, election results or Brexit.

     

    “Investors have been driven into investments where they have very little capability for dealing with what is on their plate,” Mr Weber observed. “You can nowadays see the entire return that you expect for a year being wiped out for a single day move in the market. And that is an unprecedented situation.”

     

    This is just one banker’s view. But it comes from a man who has been at the centre of the system for decades and is not a natural alarmist. Investors, in other words, would ignore this three-part list at their peril. So would Weber’s former colleagues — at central banks.

     

    read more here…

    Still we are sure this is probably nothing to worry about…

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Today’s News 17th October 2016

  • Hillary's 'War Drums' Confirm Putin's Fears Of A World "Rushing Irreversibly" Towards Nuclear Showdown

    As election day looms in America, it appears the writing that Vladimir Putin drew on the wall just a few short months ago is coming to fruition. Having lost his patience with the constant spewing of anti-Russia propaganda – missing the bigger picture of vicious circle towards muclear confrontation – Putin implored the western media, for the sake of the world, to listen:

    We know year by year what's going to happen, and they know that we know. It's only you that they tell tall tales to, and you buy it, and spread it to the citizens of your countries. You people in turn do not feel a sense of the impending danger – this is what worries me. How do you not understand that the world is being pulled in an irreversible direction? While they pretend that nothing is going on. I don't know how to get through to you anymore.

    In calm tones, not reflective of the angry allegations lobbed at Americans every day of a Russia hell-bent on the election of Trump (for whatever reason they dreamed up of this week), Putin reminded a 'deaf' press corps of what lies ahead and implicitly what happens if and when Americans vote for Hillary.

    And, as Lawrence Murray (via Atlantic Centurion) explains why Donald Trump is the anti-war candidate…

    From the Jordan to the Moskva, war drums beat. The powder keg that set off the first world war was ethno-religious conflict in the lands of the former Ottoman Empire, and in a sense it threatens to do so once more. The Balkan nations were not impressed with the botched settling of the Eastern Question, and a mix of state and non-state actors took matters into their own hands, leading to a globalized conflict. As late as 2006,  the borders of the region were still being contested, when Montenegro voted to break away from Serbia.

    Today, millions of people in the Levant, especially in Syria and Iraq, reject the imposed settlement of their borders. These were drawn by imperialists and zionists nearly a century ago under the Sykes-Picot Agreement to serve the interests of Britain, France, and the overseas Israeli community—and the successors of those diplomats wish to maintain those same borders. The ethno-religious conflict I am  referring to in the former Ottoman Empire is of course the:

    1. Syrian civil war
    2. Iraqi civil war
    3. Turkish-Kurdish conflict
    4. American intervention in Iraq
    5. American intervention in Syria
    6. Iranian intervention in Iraq
    7. Iranian intervention in Syria
    8. Russian intervention in Syria
    9. Hezbollah campaign in Syria
    10. Yemeni civil war
    11. Libyan civil war
    12. NATO intervention in Libya
    13. Egyptian counter-insurgency
    14. War on Terror / global Islamic jihad
    15. US-Russian Middle Eastern proxy war
    16. Arab-Israeli conflict

    Oh. Too many? This is the scope of conflicts that the Leviathan on the Potomac has gotten itself into, and just in the former Ottoman Empire. This does not include the:

    1. South China Sea territorial dispute
    2. Korean civil war
    3. War in Afghanistan
    4. Russian-Ukrainian border war
    5. Combat support in various African countries
    6. Occupation of Germany

    In November, Americans will roll to the polls on their motorized scooters to elect the next Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the United States.

    Hillary Clinton has a track record of following neoconservative foreign policy imperatives that favor “exporting” democracy and disrupting the enemies of Israel, such as Baathist (Arab nationalist) Iraq and Syria. Or as Republicans put it, “muh benghazi.” The Alt-Right cleverly notes that combined with America’s post-1965 immigration laws, this is a policy of “Invade the World, Invite the World.” If not for the dual policies of bombing Muslims and importing Muslims, the United States would be a radically different society. Instead of a bomb-sniffing watchdog state, we might have a night watchman state (like we used to). As late as 2000, some airline pilots would let you into the cockpit, especially if you had a small child with you who wanted to see it. Now even lingering at the front of the plane for to long means you’re a terrorist.

    But it’s more than just a cultural change and anxiety about being in crowded, target-rich, or sensitive areas. The United States is required to spend billions of dollars a year now in order to prevent the next 9/11, which could have easily been prevented by not allowing immigration from Saudi Arabia, a country which practices shariah law, polygamy, and beheading of religious dissidents. Indeed, the surveillance and counterterrorism operations the United States is required to carry out against its citizens in the name of security as a result of mass immigration from outside of Europe put the state police of bygone regimes to shame. East Germany would be envious.

    The other option is Donald Trump.

    Donald Trump has never played a role in the shattering of nations or in conducting airstrikes against embittered medieval tribespeople. He has never been blamed for the death of an American ambassador or his staff. He has never chuckled about killing Muammar Gaddafi, whose autocratic and idiosyncratic rule of Libya raised living standards, generated oil wealth for his people, and prevented Islamist terror movements from spreading in a region where that is a problem. He has spoken favorably of Saddam Hussein, who likewise while imperfect did not preside over a millennarian civil war between two strains of jihadists and nationalist-secularists. There is something to be said for leaving these parts of the world to their own devices, even if it means they don’t get an American or parliamentary democracy. They can live without it. In fact, they literally live without it. What is happening right now in Syria and Iraq and Libya and Afghanistan and other hotspots is not life. It is death, and it is being funded with your tax dollars. By a Democratic administration that is fighting to preserve disputed borders in foreign countries while neglecting our own.

    Obama and Clinton get away with warmongering because they aren’t George W. Bush. But short of committing tens of thousands of ground troops, they are doing almost the same thing he did in Iraq and Afghanistan. Perhaps worse because of the low human cost of the war to the Western side, we could potentially intervene in this conflict for, well, as long as the drone program is funded and fuel is loaded into our planes. There is no attrition. Just us turning various cities into replicas of Guernica. No bodies are sent home; no one cares.

    Trump wants to end war in Syria and Iraq by working with the Russians and Iranians to defeat the number one enemy of international peace, which is ISIS. He also wants a moratorium on the importation of violent overseas ethnoreligious conflict into the United States.

    Clinton wants to continue fighting the de jure Assad government, which benefits ISIS vis-a-vis just as much as it benefits the “moderate” rebels and non-ISIS jihadist groups. At the same time, she also wants to make the United States incrementally more Muslim each year. That’s how immigration works—less and more each year. Why recreate Syria in Seattle? Iraq in Idaho?

    Trump wants to end the wars abroad and at home. He wants to put America First. What does Clinton want to put first?

  • Tinfoil: It's Getting Harder To Leave Home Without It

    Authored by Mark St.Cyr,

    It used to be when someone mentioned the term “tinfoil cap wearing,” “conspiracy theorist,” “lunatic fringe,” etc, etc., it was usually in reference to a subset of individuals or groups that resided in some dark corners or basements believing “mind control” went far beyond just propaganda. i.e., It was actually the government (or aliens!) sending out undetectable frequencies directly into the minds of the masses. And, the only protection was: tinfoil. With it’s best use fashioned and adorned as a cap. It’s been a running joke (as it should be) longer than most can remember.

    Yet, with all that said, it’s getting harder to be out amongst the public as an informed person and not feel as if there isn’t something to all the “lunacy.” For if you speak to nearly anyone these days be it family, friends, coworkers, or the occasional overheard conversations of strangers. You can’t help wondering: how can so many be so clueless? Or worse: how is it they can argue some form of righteous stance about this, or that, all the while they are “knee-deep” themselves in the same (if not worse) muck they say is being slung from the other side?

    It’s moved so far beyond ridiculous I’m now starting to believe there is something in the water. However, is it in the tap or, is it in the bottled? For the people able to afford bottled, as opposed to plain tap, seem to have some of the more “crazy” arguments I’ve heard in quite some time. And that’s saying something. It’s the only thing that explains it.

    (Note: “informed” would include you dear reader, for the mere act of you reading this, whether you agree or disagree, proves ipso facto that you are searching out information as to draw your own conclusions. And to that – I tip my hat too you.)

    So now that you’ve read this far, let’s both don a silvery chapeau and contemplate what might be one of the scariest propositions (if found true) that could change everything (and I do mean everything) as we know it. e.g., “WWIII”

    (C’mon, what’s a good conspiracy theory without an apocalyptic conclusion as part of the deal? For if you’re going to go there – just go there is all I’ll say, yes?)

    In the U.S. we are currently in the final stages (within 30 days) of the election process where we’ll vote for the next president. And in you were an alien just landed from some distant galaxy you would be hard pressed to not assume Vladimir Putin wasn’t running on the ballot in third-party status. For he’s been mentioned and garnered more free electoral press as it pertains to the campaign than the actual third-party candidate has received – including ad buys. Hence, this is where things get down right loony.

    Say what you want about “Russian hackers” infiltrating private email servers and the like. Proving that it’s actually state sponsored, which state (i.e., Russia, China, N.Korea, etc.) is quite another. For it can also be just the garden variety hack (i.e., basement dwelling protesters) or, it could be the sophisticated type, i.e., Anonymous, etc. It’s a guessing game based on circumstantial evidence sprinkled with very suspect actual at best.

    However, you know what can’t be denied and is pure evidence based for all the world to see, on purpose?

    Military troop movements, missile deployments, a calling home to all diplomats and their children, multi-national communist allied war gaming (e.g. Russian and Chinese navy) on the open sea, all while instructing the Russian population to take part in “live nuclear bombing drills” for the first time since the cold war ended.

    That’s what’s been taking place (and a whole lot more) over the last 30 days in the real world. Have you heard, read, or seen anything about it in the main-stream media?

    Sorry, trick question. Of course not. Have you heard about the Kardashian’s latest escapades? Again, trick question – you can’t turn on a TV, radio, or go to the grocery store without seeing another version of the same headline. They’re everywhere.

    Yet, here is the real question: Can you think of another time when something even resembling the above as it pertains to war, or even the drums of it wouldn’t be the only thing reported this close to an election previously? The silence is so deafening it boggles the mind. For along with this “radio silence” comes forth that other silence – nobody’s taking about it because: nobody knows.

    As for proof? As I iterated earlier: just ask someone about it, then watch for the blank stare.

    So, as I like to do, let’s not think “outside-the-box” and limit ourselves. Let’s delve more into what I like to call “there is no box” hypothesizing. Where we can let our conspiracy theorist inner person loose and argue assertions and plausibilities without constraints. For remember: facts sometimes prove out that far more lunacy exists in the real world – than the fictional. It’s in the inability to contemplate or, to ” the-getting-there” that blindside most from ever seeing the possibilities that exist. So let’s proceed. And don’t forget your hat….

    What if the U.S. drops the “nuclear” option in December? No, not some ICBM. But rather: Raises interest rates.

    And not by .25 basis points, but rather, say 50. e.g., 1/2 of 1%.

    I know, this is crazy talk (but that’s why we have the tinfoil, no?) But let’s play this through taking the “crazy” view as a possibility. Can it make sense of what we already deem as “crazy?” Sometimes, yes, sometimes no. But you’ll never know unless you try.

    Back in May of this year I penned an article titled: “Was The Fed Just Given The Launch Codes?” In it I made some observations as it pertained to “the elites” or “Ivory Tower” type thinking. It was a follow-up from a previous in October where I hypothesized another perilous possibility: “Weaponizing The Fed.

    With all that was happening at that time, along with what has happened since, it’s getting harder to push these ideas away, more than it is to embrace the possibilities. And that, in-and-of itself, is causing me more concern with each passing day. Especially when combined with the realities taking place in real-time today.

    So what type of “conspiracy” laden scenario can I hypothesize using what we know to be factual, and, what we can conceptualize happening based on what has happened previous? Warning: it might be time to check for any possible tears, or cracks in your metallic helmet, and repair or reapply as much “tinfoil” as one feels appropriate. With that said, let’s continue.

    Have you noticed as of late that the more “serious” the Fed. is intoning hawkish tones – the more its Chair Janet Yellen is suggesting monetary lunacy? e.g., “Yellen Says Fed Buying Stocks Is “A Good Thing To Think About

    Square this circle if you can: In the U.S. even the idea of negative rates alone is almost too much to handle or contemplate based on capitalistic principles and fundamentals. The backlash and furor alone in just the discussion all but holds it at bay. The finger-pointing at the Fed. currently, along with their trying to defend against “too easy for too long” critics has pushed many Fed. members (even those considered to be doves) to intone hawkish language whenever possible in public as of late to keep the pitchforks and torches at bay.

    And yet – the Fed. Chair is publicly affirming (remember: this is only 2 weeks ago) that the idea of openly, and directly buying stocks is something that should be contemplated? Something here just doesn’t add up. Even when using Princeton math. Unless…

    What if we were to hypothesize that for whatever the reason, December would be the ultimate time to send the financial world into a tailspin for a desired (“desired” by globalists, or elitists that is) outcome? Many (“many” being common sensical thinkers) would never entertain the idea because of the election in Nov. However, what if there was precedent of, and for, navigating turmoil and instituting the unthinkable precisely at that time? Hint: The interval between the actual election and the swearing-in. e.g., Nov. – Jan.)

    One of the most curious things I remember about the financial crisis was the way, then, outgoing president Bush was seemingly instantaneously replaced with the then “president-elect” Obama.

    Never before to my recollection had I ever seen a “president-elect” giving speeches or press conferences (especially in times of crisis when there was a live sitting president) equipped with podiums, lecterns, and more in precisely the same configuration, backdrops, and all including presidential seal. You would have thought Obama took over in Nov. rather than January if you didn’t look closely to read the term “president-elect” in the same space reserved for “president” on the presidential seal. Nobody seems to remember that but me when I ask. Yet, if you look back to press clippings from that time, or videos with today’s eye – you can’t miss it.

    So now let’s really get into the weeds: What if “elites” or whatever term you want to use for people who think they know what is best for the rest of society, rather, than leaving that up to society itself, and have concluded no matter who wins the election, this whole charade of market stability is about ready to collapse upon itself like a house of cards at any time?

    And any time is weeks, or months, not years. What would one do? Wait, and try to deal with the fallout in real-time? Or, bring it down of your own volition and have it fall in some type of controlled demolition experiment of one’s choosing?

    I think when it comes to “elites” they believe they can control anything if they are the one’s that initiate it. So, I would go with the latter. And if so, what does that look like? Well, consider this….

    Let’s say the candidate of choice for the “elites” wins. How could you employ the triggers with near immediacy that would devastate, or wreak the most havoc on an adversary lest dropping real ordinance? Hint: A release via the monetary equivalent by raising interest rates causing a market meltdown, but in-particular, causing a capital outflow of inordinate proportions out of your adversary, seeking refuge in not only the $dollar, but $dollar denominated securities, and more.

    That is – while the $dollar is, still remains/considered “safe haven” status. It doesn’t sound all that crazy when put in those terms does it?

    During the most assuredly ensuing period of absolute financial turmoil you (once again e.g. Paulson and Bernanke-esque) convince both the congress, as well as the business community that “Radical action is needed now! Or we all go down in flames.” All the while the current president (much like Bush) steps off to the sidelines where the new (much like Obama did) “president-elect” calls for much of the same, echoing the most assuredly chants of fire and brimstone if “Decisive action is implemented immediately!” No matter how radical or unnerving it may be to commonsense at the time.

    You could have a scenario where the wind (as little as there would be except for the bloviating of politicians) of capital flight would be in the desired direction of your choosing, along with the ability to once again push through laws, or just allow for further take over, or more intervention by the Fed. or others in ways never dreamed possible before in a capitalistic society.

    All the ground work has already been plowed. Both in some precedents, as well as open rhetoric of the possibilities of going where no modern society has gone before with its capital markets. (Think current Fed. communications)

    As for your adversaries? You’d be doing this before they had real-time to test newly formed alliances of monetary trading or swaps in crisis mode. And during a crisis? Money seeks known safety first – not speculative. And the U.S. $dollar, along with its equity markets, as perverted as they are, are still the cleanest shirt in a dirty laundry.

    The absolute havoc, devastation, financial destruction, and a whole lot more is almost near unconscionable to even contemplate. Yet, what you have to always remember is this: Elites, or those controlling the power, never think about the destruction happening to them. They always think in terms of “It won’t be us who has to live with our decisions. That’s for others to deal with.”

    And if there is any doubt you may have to that last thought. Let me remind you of another story you may not have heard about, and the resulting aftermath when “elites” think “good ideas” that the people must live with and beside – not them.

    Welcome to Paris “Scenes From The Apocalypse” circa this month.

    A lot of people there once thought “They would never allow that to happen!” Maybe they would like to re-think that again, no?

    No tinfoil required.

  • Western Hypocrisy, And Why It Makes The World A Dangerous Place

    Submitted by Michael Jabara Carley via Strategic-Culture.org,

    The West has always been a great trembling hive of hypocrisy, portraying itself as liberal, progressive, civilised and democratic. You know the descriptors; the list is very long. Take the United States, for example, it is the «shining house upon the hill»: just, altruistic, democratic, with a «mission to extend individual liberties throughout the world».

    «Our cause has been the cause of all mankind», Lyndon Johnson declared during the 1964 presidential election campaign. To reinforce his argument Johnson cited President Woodrow Wilson, who had similar things to say about American virtue. Nothing has changed: listen to Barack Obama talk about the altruism of the United States. ‘We are the «exceptional nation»,’ he often says.

    These western and especially US virtues are mobilised to justify policies, wars, covert activities which are not virtuous at all. Let’s start with Wilson. He is best known for the «Fourteen Points», national self-determination, «democracy», open agreements, and so on. «Do as I say, not as I do,» Wilson might have cautioned in the backroom. He did not, for example, anticipate «self-determination» for the Philippines, a US colony, or closer to home, for American «Negros».

    You see, Wilson was a segregationist and supporter of Jim Crow and the Ku Klux Klan. We need the KKK, Wilson believed, to keep «colored folks» in line, especially those who came back from France having served in the US armed forces. They might think they were entitled to the same rights as white people. As American blacks were to be subject to Jim Crow, so Bolsheviks in Russia were to be subjected to Entente military intervention to put an end to their socialist revolution.

    Then of course there was World War II. It is during this war that the United States and Great Britain got into the habit of destroying cities and civilian infrastructure, and killing large numbers of civilians. It is true that Nazi Germany set the precedent for targeting civilians, and few people questioned the destruction of German cities and the mass killing of civilians in Cologne, Hamburg, Dresden, Berlin and other places.

    The «krauts» had it coming. So did the Japanese, most of their cities were burned to the ground. Hiroshima and Nagasaki were destroyed with the first atomic bombs. «Military targets,» said accidental President Harry Truman, «we had to do it to save the lives of American soldiers». He lied. The American government knew very well that Japan was beaten and ready to surrender. The United States wanted to intimidate Iosif Stalin, with atomic bombs the USSR did not yet have. Did the Americans truly believe they could intimidate Marshal Stalin?

    The end of World War II led to the resumption of the Cold War, Act II (Act I having started in 1917). With Great Britain reduced to the status of a vassal state, the United States took the lead in defending «free» peoples against the menace of communism. Unfortunately, there was a chasm between the image and the reality. The US government unleashed the CIA to buy politicians and elections and overthrow governments it did not like. Iran, Guatemala, Cuba were early examples. That was the fate reserved for Vietnam too, except there, Washington bit off more than it could chew.

    The United States sabotaged Vietnamese elections in 1956 because, according to US president Dwight Eisenhower, the communist leader Ho Chi Minh would have won 80% of the vote. Not much respect for democracy there: it turns out that the United States was only comfortable with «democracy» when their clients won. When they couldn’t win, elections were rigged, bought with CIA money, or sabotaged. «Leftists, communists, eccentrics, not wanted here,» was a sign America might have hung out on the doors of its embassies worldwide.

    In Vietnam the United States hijacked the south and ran it through puppets. A terrible war ensued: the World War II pattern of targeting cities and civilians was repeated. The US government declared that it was not bombing North Vietnamese cities, but Toronto Star correspondent Michael Maclear drove up from the Vietnamese Demilitarized Zone to Hanoi and found just about every city and town along the way had been flattened or badly damaged by American bombing. Civilians were fair game, US claims to the contrary notwithstanding. Estimates range from 2 to 6 civilians killed for every Vietnamese combatant. These figures are certainly on the low side given US carpet bombing and use of napalm and chemical defoliants.

    It is true that most of the Vietnamese people were united with their armed forces in resisting US aggression. So the distinction between civilian and soldier was necessarily blurred, much to the frustration of US authorities. Then there was the My Lai massacre in March 1968 when nearly five hundred men, women and children were gunned down by American soldiers. The massacre made the pages of Life magazine, not good publicity for the American war of aggression in Southeast Asia.

    The United States lost that war because of the remarkable resistance of the Vietnamese people, though they paid a high price for driving out the American invader. Defeat however did not long chasten US authorities. In 1973 the CIA overthrew the democratically elected Chilean government of Salvador Allende. A neo-fascist took his place, which was fine with Washington. In the 1980s the United States backed Islamist fundamentalists in Afghanistan against the USSR. «They’re sons of bitches», Americans might have agreed in a rare moment of candour, but «they are our sons of bitches».

    The point is that the American claims of altruism and promotion of democracy were bogus. As long as the USSR existed, the United States could not run completely amuck although the US rampage in Southeast Asia was bad enough. After the collapse and dismemberment of the USSR, the United States felt the last restraints on its power fall away. NATO was expanded up to Russia’s western frontiers. Yugoslavia was destroyed and dismembered without any reference to international law. The United States and its NATO vassals backed Islamist terrorists and gangsters in Bosnia and Kosovo, following the Afghan pattern. «They’re our terrorists and gangsters,» the Americans might have said, «and therefore we’re alright». Serbia was bombed, its infrastructure destroyed, civilians were killed. Not even crocodile tears were shed in the west over the dead Serbian civilians.

    Since the destruction of Yugoslavia, the list of US and western covert or overt wars of aggression is long. Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Ukraine, Syria, Yemen have all been destroyed or are being destroyed by the United States and its NATO or regional vassals in the name of «responsibility to protect» (R2P) and «democracy» proselytization. The west’s allies are Wahhabi terrorists (again), Daesh, Nusra, Al-Qaeda and various iterations of them, as well as fascists in the Ukraine. It is an extraordinary American rogues’ gallery, like a long police line-up of felons. But «not to worry», the Americans would no doubt repeat, «they’re our Islamists and our fascists, and working for us, which makes everything alright».

    Everywhere the United States leaves its footprints, along with those of the British and French depending on location, you will find ruins and victims. Iraq and Libya are in chaos and infested with Al-Qaeda terrorists. War drags on in Afghanistan after fifteen years. In the Ukraine the US-backed fascist coup d’état has only partially succeeded and a crisis there could irrupt at any time. In Yemen a Saudi invasion has butted into formidable resistance.

    In Syria the US and Anglo-French-led attempt to overthrow the Syrian government has failed. Not only did the United States run up against a formidable Syrian resistance inspired by Syrian president Bashar el-Assad, but it has run up against the Russian Federation, Iran, and Hezbollah. They are allied with the Syrian government against the invasion of US and western supported Islamist mercenaries, armed, financed, trained, and sheltered by Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan, and Apartheid Israel.

    Russia has played the principal role in checking the US-led war of aggression against Syria. Of course, President Vladimir Putin has tried to finesse the United States into abandoning its terrorist allies and joining a coalition to destroy the Wahhabi invaders. As I write these lines, the Russian effort has failed; as well it might, since the United States is addicted to subversion and wars of aggression as a drug user is addicted to narcotics. But Russia had to try, and I suppose, will continue to try, to persuade the United States to go cold turkey.

    In the meantime its French and British vassals accuse Russia and Syria of war crimes, fulminate about the surrounded, victimized Wahhabi terrorists in Aleppo. The very same who have made films showing their decapitation of Syrian POWs and officials, Christians and any others who don’t embrace their practice of Islam. Further forms of cruelty include execution by drowning or being burned alive in cages, or crushed by tanks. Women are raped, and stoned if they don’t submit; refugees seeking to escape Al-Qaeda authority are flogged, crucified, decapitated, buried alive, or shot (the latter form of execution being for the Wahhabis a rather banal, merciful way of killing victims).

    It is these terrorists who the United States and its vassals support in Aleppo and elsewhere in Syria. They have abandoned the argument about the Wahhabis being «our terrorists» for another to the effect that they are «our moderates». This line is just as preposterous and bogus as all the other US justifications for war, though President Putin and his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, have played along trying to persuade the United States to see reason. The Russian strategy has failed, as its other peace strategies have failed, because, inter alia, there are no Islamist «moderates» to separate from the so-called genuine terrorists. «Our moderates» is a fiction and a US cover for its support of Al-Qaeda and its various allies, largely foreign mercenaries fighting against the secular, legitimate government of Syria.

    The only result, so far, of Russian efforts is that US generals threaten «to beat» Russia as never before. The French president threatens Russia and Syria with war crimes indictments, and various British politicians, including the Foreign Secretary, fulminate about Nazi-like bombardments of poor, innocent «moderates» who in fact use Aleppo civilians in their diminishing zone of occupation as human shields, summarily executing those who attempt to escape. In the much larger part of Aleppo which the «moderates» do not control, they deliberately target civilians.

    Will there ever be an end to the hypocrisy and double standards? From Wilson to Johnson, to Obama, we have been subjected to a pack of lies. The US and western narrative about Syria, as elsewhere, is false to the last syllable. The «shining house upon the hill» is a myth. A dark charnel house filled to the ceiling with victims of US and European neo-colonialism would better represent the reality. But don’t expect any western governments to look inside that house. «Collateral damage,» the Americans would say, «and a price worth paying». Myths and lies conceal the real foreign conduct of the United States and its vassals, but that unfortunately is nothing new. The question now is whether Americans, Europeans and Canadians are willing to risk a gratuitous war with Russia for a pack of lies, in defence of the US-led Al-Qaeda invasion of Syria. We, all of us, need to decide quickly, before it is too late.

     

  • PuTTNiK FiGHTS THe RuSSiaN BeaR…

    PUTTNIK FIGHTS THE RUSSIAN BEAR

  • Lawmakers Allege "Quid Pro Quo" Between FBI And State Over Altered 'Classified' Clinton Emails

    About a week ago we wrote about newly released FBI interviews with numerous references to State Department officials, including Patrick Kennedy, applying pressure to subordinates to change classified email codes so they would be shielded from Congress and the public (see “Two Boxes Of Hillary Emails Mysteriously Disappear“).  Here is the relevant section from the FBI’s interview notes:

    Hillary

     

    Now, according to a report from Fox News, new FBI files reviewed by Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah), Chair of the House Oversight Committee, potentially point toward a “quid pro quo” arrangement between the State Department and the FBI whereby Patrick Kennedy, a senior executive at the State Department, offered “additional slots for the FBI at missions overseas” in return of “altering the classification” of certain Hillary Clinton emails.  If true, of course, this new evidence could serve to discredit the entire FBI investigation as the notes are a “flashing red light of potential criminality.”

    FBI interview summaries and notes, provided late Friday to the House Government Oversight and Intelligence Committees, contain allegations of a “quid pro quo” between a senior State Department executive and FBI agents during the Hillary Clinton email investigation, two congressional sources told Fox News.

     

    “This is a flashing red light of potential criminality,” Republican Rep. Jason Chaffetz of Utah, who has been briefed on the FBI interviews, told Fox News.

     

    He said “there was an alleged quid pro quo” involving Undersecretary for Management Patrick Kennedy and the FBI “over at least one classified email.”

     

    “In return for altering the classification, the possibility of additional slots for the FBI at missions overseas was discussed,” Chaffetz said.

     

    “Both myself and Chairman Devin Nunes of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence are infuriated by what we have heard,” he added.

     

    “Left to their own devices the FBI would never have provided these [records] to Congress and waited until the last minute. This is the third batch because [the FBI] didn’t think they were relevant,” Chaffetz said.

    Hillary Comey

     

    Of course, the FBI told Fox News there was absolutely no impropriety in the interactions between the FBI and the State Department.  Apparently an FBI agent just happened to raise the issue of additional slots for agents overseas during a call with Patrick Kennedy about changing email classifications due to a previous unfortunate bout of phone tag between the FBI and State.  Here is the full statement from the FBI to Fox News:

    “Prior to the initiation of the FBI’s investigation of former Secretary Clinton’s personal email server, the FBI was asked to review and make classification determinations on FBI emails and information which were being produced by the State Department pursuant to FOIA. The FBI determined that one such email was classified at the Secret level. A senior State Department official requested the FBI re-review that email to determine whether it was in fact classified or whether it might be protected from release under a different FOIA exemption. A now-retired FBI official, who was not part of the subsequent Clinton investigation, told the State Department official that they would look into the matter. Having been previously unsuccessful in attempts to speak with the senior State official, during the same conversation, the FBI official asked the State Department official if they would address a pending, unaddressed FBI request for space for additional FBI employees assigned abroad. Following the call, the FBI official consulted with a senior FBI executive responsible for determining the classification of the material and determined the email was in fact appropriately classified at the Secret level. The FBI official subsequently told the senior State official that the email was appropriately classified at the Secret level and that the FBI would not change the classification of the email. The classification of the email was not changed, and it remains classified today. Although there was never a quid pro quo, these allegations were nonetheless referred to the appropriate officials for review.”

    The response from the State Department was much more terse:

    “This allegation is inaccurate and does not align with the facts,” State Department Deputy Spokesperson Mark Toner said. “To be clear: the State Department did upgrade the document at the request of the FBI when we released it back in May 2015.”

    What are the odds that so many completely “harmless” coincidences occurred during the investigation of Hillary’s private email server to her explicit benefit…with that kind of luck we suspect she should have won the PowerBall about 2 or 3 times by now.

  • The Fed, Like The BOJ, Is Now In The Curve Steepening Business: What That Means For Markets

    Following Janet Yellen’s strange speech from Friday, titled “The Elusive ‘Great’ Recovery” in which a seemingly perturbed Yellen not only admitted that the Fed may have hit peak confusion and that 7 years after unleashing a global, multi-trillion asset reflation experiment, it has not only failed to reflate non-market assets (at least both bonds and stocks are near all time highs on central bank buying), but in which the Fed chair also admitted the Fed is not even sure it understands the phenomenon of inflation any more, and in which Yellen’s reference to stoking a “high-pressure economy” and the lack of a mention of raising interest rates (coupled with her suggestion that the Fed “may want to aim at being more accommodative” during recoveries) was initially seen as a dovish sign, the just as confused market first rose, then fell after it reintrepreted her comments not so much as dovish, but as refering “financial stability”, something that Eric Rosengren explained earlier on Friday refers to steepening the yield curve, which in effect is a tapering of long-end purchases, or – as we first dubbed it when previewing the BOJ’s similar operation – a reverse Operation Twist.

    The result was a prompt jump in 10Y and 30Y TSY yields to session highs on Friday after Yellen’s speech discussing “plausible ways” to reverse adverse supply-side effects by temporarily running a “high-pressure economy”, but more importantly the 5s30s steepened. Indeed, the selloff in long end saw 30Y yields rise by more than 7bp, topping 2.55% for 1st time since June 23 Brexit vote, the 10Y yield was higher by 5bp at 1.791%, above closing levels since June 2, while the short end barely budged.

    But the steepening mood started not with Yellen but with Eric Rosengren, the president of the Boston Fed President, who dissented from the FOMC’s decision to hold rates steady at its September meeting, and who said is perplexed by historically low 10-year Treasury yields, which “haven’t rebounded as in other recoveries, with investors willing to accept a vanishingly small premium over their inflation expectations to hold them.” 

    Perhaps the reason for that is that despite the endless rhetoric, there hasn’t actually been a, you know, “recovery.”

    As Bloomberg’s Daniel Kruger observed, Rosengren cited the Fed’s extensive holdings of 10-year Treasuries as a reason, but speculated that there’s a more likely and enduring cause: safety, in the wake of the financial crisis, is more expensive than it used to be. “It’s a global phenomenon. In 2006 a 10-year Treasury buyer received 2.3 percentage points more in interest than the market’s 10-year inflation forecast. That’s fallen to 0.2 percentage points this year. Spreads have narrowed in Japan and Germany, as well. Buyers of 10-year JGBs now get 0.4 percentage point less, and in Germany it’s an 0.8 percentage point less.”

    So, not surprisingly, just like the BOJ before it, Rosengren suggested to use the Fed’s balance sheet to steepen the yield curve. The gap between five- and 30-year debt has widened 0.24 percentage point from the 20-month low of 1.03 percentage points in August. And with about one-fourth of the Fed’s $2.46 trillion in Treasuries matures in 2027 or later, selling a portion would certainly widens the curve even more. However, it will most certainly backfire should investors sell risk assets in order to fund purchases of long-term Treasuries at suddenly higher yields, which as we explained just over a month ago, is the dreaded VaR shock scenario where a rapid selloff in bonds promptly migrates to other risk assets courtesy of risk-parity deleveraging, which in turn forces a scramble for “safety”, i.e., the very same long-maturity securities, whose selloff prompted the panic in the first place.

    Indeed, as Kruger points out, removing stimulus from the long-end of the bond market isn’t going to boost risk appetite in broader financial markets or stimulate growth. In other words, it will lead to more selling, something which US equity futures appear to be doing right this very moment.

    * * *

    The Fed is not the only one suddenly expecting a notably steeper yield curve. Over the weekend, Deutsche Bank’s Dominic Konstam who until recently expected the 10Y to drop as low as 1.25%, has also changed his mind and now expects the long end to rise due to the market’s expectations of further steepening.

    But it won’t all be song and games, because as Dalio and Goldman have both warned, should rates move too high, too fast, MTM losses will become so great that the move itself will provoke a scramble right back into fixed income, and other deflationary, assets.

    This is what Konstam said in his Credit Weekly publication:

    If we are right and yields continue to rise with the curve steeper, there will inevitably be concern for risk assets and perhaps for the economic “recovery”. For this reason we think investors should view the moves as more tactical rather than structural and, importantly, consistent with easier policy at the front end. In the extreme the BoJ and ECB can ease still further to underwrite the steeper yield curve while the Fed can delay hikes for longer. While many investors have been lulled into a sense of low long rates are desirable, we continue to think that the central banks are shifting gears whereby steeper yields curves per se are more desirable for helping to stabilize bank profits and higher long yields per se for the entitlement industry as well as to soften the hunt for yield that may be driving excessively low risk premia in risk assets.  The BoJ target for zero 10s is clearly in this framework – although as we argued two weeks ago the logic must be a dramatic decline in short rates to support 1s5s JGB curve steepening AND 5s10s JGB curve flattening so that 5y5y can fall or at least be stable relative to the US especially, despite sticky 10 year JGB yields. In turn, this will allow for a weaker yen. A weaker yen is critical to raise inflation expectations – it is about the only thing that matters for Japanese inflation. As of now note there has been a decent steepening in 1s5s (5 bps over 2 weeks vs. recent low of just 7 bps) while 5s10s has been stable to slightly flatter although overall 5y5y is slightly higher.

     

    Rosengren’s statement that…”[I]f one were concerned about the historically low 10-year Treasury and commercial real estate capitalization rates, perhaps because of potential financial stability concerns, the balance sheet composition could be adjusted to steepen the yield curve” After the Great recession. A Not-So-Great Recovery FRB Boston, October 14, 2016, we think is an important new augmented angle from the Fed that fits well with our thesis. Below we look at options that the Fed might take in the event that it also wanted to steepen the yield curve.

     

    As an illustration of the sorts of financial stability concerns we have been highlighting the richness of the SPX in relation to real yields and breakevens and specifically how this richness has been achieved via specific sectors that have performed increasingly well even as breakeven yields have fallen – the coefficients have effectively flipped since 2013 for sectors like healthcare, utilities, staples. This shows up as a compression of earnings yields to (falling) nominal yields via lower real yields and stable to lower breakevens. Restoring risk premia in the bond market therefore will at least forestall a further richening in risk assets but may also allow for some reversal. To the extent that breakevens recover with real yields still relatively low should at least though limit the risk asset correction – a pause that refreshes rather than a tantrum. Again the idea is that this is tactical not structural. There is an important distinction to make versus late last year when the fed was not just hiking but threatening to hike every quarter so real yields themselves had a full on tantrum as the dollar soared. This is exactly what needs to be avoided and we expect it to be avoided in the context of the current ongoing policy re-jig.

     

    Twist Reversal?

     

    Treasury curve steepened on Rosengren’s comments about adjusting Fed’s balance sheet to steepen the yield curve on financial stability concerns. The change in Fed’s balance sheet composition could steepen the yield curve similar to how Twist flattened the curve in 2011 and 2012. Fed portfolio extension during Twist was worth about 45-50bp in 5s-30s based on our model.

     

    We fit 5s-30s curve to Fed funds to 2s and Fed portfolio average maturity from November 2010 to December 2012 to capture Twist effect. The original intension was to extend our ten-year bootstrap fair value model, which uses Fed funds to 2s and Fed funds target as input variables, to curve slope by adding the Fed portfolio maturity variable. As Fed funds target was unchanged during that period, that variable becomes irrelevant. Note that the Fed portfolio average maturity dominates in the regression with a -4.4 t-stats and a six-month lag. Twist contributed 50bp to the 5s-30s flattening during that period.

     

    The coefficient on the Fed portfolio average maturity is about -0.014 per month. A one-year change Fed portfolio average maturity is worth about 17bp in 5s-30s.

     

    To change the portfolio composition, the Fed can stop reinvestments of maturity coupon debt at 10- and 30-year auctions. Treasury then needs to borrow more from the market in the long end, steepening the curve. Alternatively, the Fed can stop reinvestments of maturity coupon debt at all auctions and use the proceeds to buy short dated coupon debt in open market operations while keeping the balance sheet stable.

     

     

    One final warning: it was Rosengren’s comments, together with the hint that the BOJ would proceed will full blown curve steepening, in the week of September 5 that spooked markets which not only ultimately led to a dramatic steepening in the JGB curve, but also to the sharpest drop in the S&P since Brexit. Now, one month later, we have another set of even more vocal Rosengren comments and this time it is not the BOJ but the Fed which is suggesting the next big monetary move will be not more easing but implicit tightening via Reverse Twist. Meanwhile Libor is soaring and pressuring everyone who has floating exposure, while the rising long end is about to put an end to any housing “recovery.” As such, keep a close eye on risk assets not just overnight but in the next few days, as a “deja vu all over again” moment is increasingly likely, especially if the Ray Dalio’s of the world decide they would rather sit this one out…

     

    Risk Parity

  • Podesta Emails Reveal Hillary Planned Obama "Hit" For Cocaine Use In 2008 Campaign

    Remember in the 2nd Presidential debate when Hillary stole Michelle Obama’s line saying “when they go low, we go high.”  It was hard to miss it as the mainstream media replayed it over and over for several days after the debate.

     

    But new Podesta emails show that a better slogan might have been “when they go low, we get high.”  Despite repeatedly claiming the “high road,” the following email from Neera Tanden, head of the liberal think tank Center for American Progress, clearly shows the Clinton campaign organized a below-the-belt hit on Obama back in 2007 over his admitted cocaine use.

    Perhaps even more important is Neera’s scathing assessment of Hillary’s “instincts” which she describes as “suboptimal.”  Something tells us that could get Neera in a bit of trouble in the not too distant future.

    Obama

     

    The email references the following exchange between back in 2007 on MSNBC when Democratic strategist Mark Penn repeatedly brought up the word “cocaine” causing Joe Trippi to nearly lose his mind.

    PENN:  Well, I think we have made clear that the — the issue related to cocaine use is not something that the campaign was in any way raising. And I think that has been made clear. I think this kindergarten thing was a joke after Senator…

     

    TRIPPI: This guy`s been filibustering on this. He just said cocaine again. It`s like…

     

    PENN: I think you`re saying cocaine.

     

    In fact, new polling data discovered among Podesta’s emails from 2007 even reveals that the Clinton campaign tested the “cocaine hit” with potential voters…unfortunately no one seemed to care about the issue but the Clinton camp decided to take it for a spin anyway.

    Obama

     

    While an impartial media would call out candidates for claiming to “take the high road” while working behind the scenes to organize below-the-belt hits, somehow we suspect that Hillary will get a pass on this one.

     

    And here are the full poll results from 2007:

  • Learning From The British Election Of 1722

    Submitted by Gary Galles via The Mises Institute,

    It has become commonplace to note that the 2016 election campaign is unlike any America has seen before. Whether it is the issues brought to the fore, the number of scandals, or the intensity of the personal invective, it is hard to believe we are now within the bounds of what our founders had in mind.

    In fact, we can make that statement going back more than half a century before our founding. The reason is that one of the greatest influences on colonial American political thought was Cato’s Letters, in which John Trenchard and Robert Gordon echoed John Locke in the early 1720s. According to Ronald Hamowy, its

    arguments against oppressive government and in support of the splendors of freedom were quoted constantly and its authors were regarded as the country’s most eloquent opponents of despotism…[and] frequently served as the basis of the American response to the whole range of depredations under which the colonies suffered.

    Of particular note in regard to our current election choices are Cato’s Letters 69 and 70, which addressed British voters about the choice of representatives they faced in their fiercely fought general election of 1722. Those letters bring us back to how far we have moved from what George Washington described as “the sacred fire of liberty…staked on the experiment entrusted to the hands of the American People,” making some of its insights worth reconsideration today:

    • "Our country abounds with men of courage and understanding; nor are there wanting those of integrity and public spirit: There is an ardent desire and diffusive love of liberty…and many begin to be tired, sick, and ashamed of party-animosities, and of quarrelling…to gratify the pride, the ambition, and rapine of those who only sell and betray them. It is yet in our power to save ourselves."
    • "Let us not again be deluded with false promises and deceitful assurances; but let us judge what men will do by what they have done."
    • "Throw your choice upon such who will neither buy you, nor sell you."
    • "In corrupt administrations, your superiors of all kinds make bargains, and pursue ends at the public expense, and grow rich by making the people poor."
    • Think what you are doing, while you are raising hue and cry after men who will betray you…for a poor momentary share of their infamous plunder.
    • Know, Gentlemen, how you are used above, by those who think it worth their time to flatter you below, and to your faces…It depends now upon yourselves, whether you will deserve these base and reproachful names, or not; show that you are men.
    • Liberty: You are our Alpha and Omega, our first and last resource; and when your virtue is gone, all is gone…you may choose whether you will be freemen or vassals; whether you will spend your own money and estates, or let others worse than you spend them for you.
    • "You are born to liberty, and it is your interest and duty to preserve it…your governors have every right to protect and defend you, none to injure and oppress you…But it depends upon yourselves alone to make these rights of yours…of use to you."
    • "All men desire naturally riches and power; almost all men will take every method, just or unjust, to attain them. Hence the difficulty of governing men."
    • "While men are men, ambition, avarice, and vanity, and other passions, will govern their actions; in spite of all equity and reason, they will be ever usurping, or attempting to usurp, upon the liberty and fortunes of one another, and all men will be striving to enlarge their own. Dominion will always desire increase, and property always to preserve itself; and these opposite views and interests will be causing a perpetual struggle: But by this struggle liberty is preserved."
    • "The interest of the body of the people is to keep people from oppression, and their magistrates from changing into plunderers."
    • "Nor can there be any security in the fidelity of one [representative], who can find it more his interest to betray you than to serve you faithfully."
    • "Choose not therefore such who are likely to truck away your liberties for an equivalent to themselves, and to sell you to those against whom it is their duty to defend you."
    • "This is not a dispute about dreams or speculations, which affect not your property; but it is a dispute whether you shall have any property, which these wretches throw away."
    • "Do you not know how much you are at the mercy of their honesty…whether you are to be freemen or slaves…Would you allow the common laws of neighborhood to such as steal or plunder your goods, rob you of your money, seize your houses, drive you from your possessions, enslave your persons, and starve your families? No, sure, you would not."
    • "Consider what you are about…We are all in your hands, and so at present are your representatives; but very quickly the scene will be shifted, and both you and we will be in theirs…think what they are like to be, when they are no longer under your eye…These humble creatures, who now bow down before you, will soon look down upon you."

    Cato’s Letters 69 and 70 focused on the British election of 1722. But they also provide a useful civics primer for the principles American voters concerned with the progressive evisceration of liberty should consider this November, almost three centuries later. However, those principles seem to disqualify both major party candidates, neither of whom exhibits more than a lukewarm commitment for defending our freedoms. No wonder so many are torn about who to hold their nose and vote for. But that begs the question: Is voting for anyone whose positions are so at odds with our founding defensible, if one believes in liberty?

  • Iraq Launches Military Offensive To Retake Mosul From ISIS; Up To 1 Million Refugees Expected

    Moments ago, Iraq’s Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi publicly announced the start of an offensive to retake Mosul, the capital of Islamic State’s caliphate in Iraq. US troops are said to be playing a “supporting role” in the offensive, with the Iraqi army and Kurdish Peshmerga fighters making up the bulk of the 30,000-strong force.

    Washington recently announced the deployment of 600 additional US troops to help with the city’s recapture, bringing the total number of US force management personnel to move than 5,000, according to the Pentagon.

    “The hour has come and the moment of great victory is near,” Prime Minister el-Abadi said in a speech on state TV, surrounded by the armed forces’ top commanders. “I announce today the start of the operation to liberate the province of Nineveh.”

    The assault on Mosul is backed the U.S.-led coalition and could be one be the biggest military operations in Iraq since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein.It is expected to last several weeks if not longer.

    “We are proud to stand with you in this historic operation,” Brett McGurk, U.S. envoy to the coalition against Islamic State, said on Twitter at the start of the Mosul offensive.

    Mosul is the last major stronghold of ultra-hardline Sunni group in Iraq. With a pre-war population of around 2 million, the northern Iraqi city is the largest city Islamic State has controlled after it declared a “caliphate” in Iraq and neighboring Syria in 2014.

    The launch of the offensive does not come as a surprise to anyone, and certainly not ISIS, after leaflets declaring “Victory Time” were dumped over the city on Sunday. Local media outlets reported earlier over the weekend that the Iraqi army and allied militiamen may start the offensive against the ISIS “capital” in Iraq on Monday. The International Red Cross warned the move could create a million refugees.

    The operation to drive Islamic State out of Iraq’s second-largest city Mosul was due to start “early on Monday,” Sky News Arabia reported citing sources in Iraqi Kurdistan. Similar reports have been filed by Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency, citing Iraqi government sources. The action is set to be backed by the US-led anti-IS coalition. However according to RIA, which cited a military source, the operation might be delayed, since the terrorists are now allegedly aware of the exact plan. The jihadists have hence “booby trapped roads” to Mosul forcing the Iraqi military to change plans, the source adds.

    But the biggest question is where will the up to 1 million refugees go. Around half of the city’s original population of more than 2 million remain in Mosul, and most of them could flee once fighting begins, which would create another refugee crisis and what one representative has called “one of the largest man-made displacement crises of recent times,” according to CNN.

    Camps are reportedly being set up to accommodate those who leave the city.

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Today’s News 16th October 2016

  • EconMatters YTD Returns 2016 (Video)

    By EconMatters


    Here are EconMatters results for 2016, we actually struggled relatively speaking in the first quarter as we were still adjusting our strategies to bring down the vol risk in the portfolio, but after April with some slight adjustments, we have been kicking ass and taking names, and our equity curve graph (which will remain private) as it gives away some insight into our methodology to competitors, is just a beautiful piece of artwork and shall be framed at year end. Yes it is possible to still blow away the benchmarks!

    © EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle   

  • Obama Enters Media Wars: Why His Recent Attack On Free Speech Is So Dangerous & Radical

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    Control of the news media is an instrumental, key feature to any totalitarian government. In contrast, the primary reason this experiment known as the United States has lasted so long under relatively free conditions is due to the preservation of free speech (and press) via the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.

    In case you haven’t read it in a while, here’s the text:

    Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

    Nowhere in there do I see an exception for “conspiracy theories,” but apparently Constitutional scholar Barack Obama has an alternative interpretation.

    As reported by AFP:

     

    Pittsburgh (AFP) – President Barack Obama on Thursday decried America’s “wild, wild west” media environment for allowing conspiracy theorists a broad platform and destroying a common basis for debate.

     

    Recalling past days when three television channels delivered fact-based news that most people trusted, Obama said democracy require citizens to be able to sift through lies and distortions.

     

    “We are going to have to rebuild within this wild-wild-west-of-information flow some sort of curating function that people agree to,” Obama said at an innovation conference in Pittsburgh.

     

    “There has to be, I think, some sort of way in which we can sort through information that passes some basic truthiness tests and those that we have to discard, because they just don’t have any basis in anything that’s actually happening in the world,” Obama added.

     

    “That is hard to do, but I think it’s going to be necessary, it’s going to be possible,” he added.

     

    “The answer is obviously not censorship, but it’s creating places where people can say ‘this is reliable’ and I’m still able to argue safely about facts and what we should do about it.”

    The above may sound good on a superficial level to people with zero critical thinking skills, but even the most elementary analysis exposes it as the obvious and dangerous attack on free speech that it is. Let’s zero in on a few things he said in closer detail.

    He describes the media environment as the “wild, wild west.” Kind of sounds like an environment in which people are free to say, publish or record whatever they want, and let the chips fall where they may. Seems consistent with the first amendment to me.

    He notes that there needs to be “some sort of way in which we can sort through information that passes some basic truthiness tests and those that we have to discard.” This sounds good on the surface because, after all, who doesn’t want truth? The problem lies in the fact that governments can and do lie all the time about stuff of monumental significance. Let’s take the Iraq war for example. As I discussed in August’s post, Questioning Hillary’s Health is Not Conspiracy Theory:

    Of course, the New York Times rendering judgment on those pushing conspiracy theories would be downright hilarious if it weren’t so sad. For example, the paper itself exhibited no such restraint when it came to peddling U.S. government conspiracies about Iraq in the run up to one of the most inhumane, unnecessary and destructive foreign policy blunders in American history. In fact, the paper was ultimately so embarrassed by its own behavior, it issued a statement in 2004 titled, FROM THE EDITORS; The Times and Iraq

    Meanwhile, there were millions of people in the “wild west” of opinion making yelling and screaming that the government was misleading the public about Iraq in order to go to war. So who got it right, the New York Times, or the wild, wild west?

    If Obama had his way, those people who asserted that the public was being mislead into the Iraq war would have been dismissed as “conspiracy theorists” not worth paying attention to since they refused to agree with government “facts.” Obama’s position is such an obvious authoritarian slippery slope, one has to ask why he would dare go so far.

    My view is that there is a full on panic occurring right now at the very top of America’s shadow government due to the fact that the public is no longer falling for corporate media propaganda. Once again, let’s turn to something I wrote in the post, Questioning Hillary’s Health is Not Conspiracy Theory:

    As I look at the landscape in 2016 to-date, I observe emergent signs that alternative media is finally beginning to take over from the legacy mainstream media when it comes to impact and influence. The mainstream media (unlike with John McCain in 2008), had decided that Hillary Clinton’s health was not an issue and chose not to pursue it. Many in the alternative media world took a different position, and due to mainstream media’s failure to inform the American public for decades, the alternative media drove that issue to the top of the news cycle. That’s power.

     

    This is an incredibly big deal, and the mainstream media intuitively knows what it means. It means a total loss of legitimacy, prestige and power. All of which is well deserved of course.

     

    So here’s the bottom line. 2016 represents the true beginning of what I would call the Media Wars. Alternative media is now capable of driving the news cycle. Mainstream media now has no choice but to fight back, and fight back it will. It will fight back dirty. This is going to get very ugly, but by the time the dust has settled, I think much of the mainstream media will be left as a shell of its former self.

    By ugly, I didn’t expect the President of these United States to so publicly and radically advocate in favor of free speech restrictions, but here we are.

     

    Let’s conclude by tackling another portion of his talk, where he states, “the answer is obviously not censorship, but it’s creating places where people can say ‘this is reliable’ and I’m still able to argue safely about facts and what we should do about it.” 

    Who exactly is supposed to be granted the power to create such spaces and verify things as factual? We know that government lies all the time, yet when they lie, they present such falsehoods as fact. It is the duty of the people to decide what to believe and what not to believe. This is not the job of government, or anyone else for that matter.

    Yes, it’s true that there’s an unbelievable amount of garbage out there on the internet, but yet we manage. What seems to be happening here with Obama is a not so subtle attempt to blame the rise of Trumpism on alternative media as opposed to the actual culprit, his oligarch coddling policies. It’s a sign of pathetic desperation from a man who has completely and utterly failed the American public while protecting the rich and powerful. It’s an ugly manifestation of an executive who cannot come to terms with the justified anger of a public who feels betrayed by him. Sure a compliant, preening and entirely propagandist media would make Obama feel a whole lot better about his miserable legacy, but we shouldn’t sacrifice the first amendment to achieve this.

    For more on this topic, see:

    Hillary Clinton Enters the Media Wars

     

    The Death of Mainstream Media

  • September Global Auto Sales Hit Record High Thanks To China's New Car Bubble

    In recent months the US auto industry has been bombarded with a barrage of bad news: starting with Ford’s disastrous August sales when the company admitted “sales have reached a plateau“, continuing to the surge in delinquent subprime auto borrowers hitting nearly a 7 year high as the marginal creditworthy car buyers disappears, then noting the record $4,000 in industry-wide new car incentives in September as preventing a plunge in last month’s auto sales, and recalling last week’s downgrade of the US auto sector by Goldman which said that the US “cycle has peaked“…

    …one would think that global auto sale would follow a similar downward trajectory. One would be wrong.

    According to data by JPM, global auto sales jumped 3.5%m/m in September on the back of strong gains in July and August. The pace of sales now stands at an all-time high of 78.0 million units per month, annualized. In whole, auto sales jumped 16.2%ar in 3Q (%3m/3m basis). On a %3m change basis, the move is an even more impressive 27% annualized through September.

    The first warning light, however, that this number is fake is that as JPM admits, it “contrasts with a more subdued pace of overall consumer goods spending, which is looking to have taken a breather starting in August.

    The second warning is what we noted earlier in the week, when we reported that as one Chinese bubble has popped (again), namely the housing one, the country is now steering its consumers into the latest and greatest of Chinese asset bubbles: autos. JPM confirms as much warning that “China’s influence on the recent surge in auto sales is large and this suggests some caution is warranted in taking too large a signal.”

    Actually it’s not a warning light: it’s a full bore siren. According to the latest data, of the impressive 4.4mn unit rise in global auto sales since June, China alone contributed for 84% of this global increase, or 3.7mn units.

    How did China manage to blow such a major bubble so fast? JPM explains that as the largest auto sales market in the world, China witnessed a spur in auto sales over the past year. However, this is not due to organic demand, and is almost entirely to a tax cut (by half) on small engine cars implemented by the government in September 2015. Since the cut, China’s auto sales have increased by 33%. Think cash for clunkers on trillions of debt-funded steroids.

    And just like in the aftermath of the financial crisis when China’s unprecedented debt growth spree kept the world comatose out of cardiac arrest, it is the massive Chinese demand impulse, which will shortly fade, that is pushing the world forward if only for the time being.  As JPM admits, excluding China from its global aggregate paints a different picture. Auto sales in this group basically did not grow in 3Q. Much of the weakness came from the EM ex China group, where auto sales fell almost 5%ar in 3Q. DM auto sales also did not impress in 3Q with a modest 2%ar move up. Large declines in 3Q auto sales were seen in Japan, Sweden, Norway, Korea, Brazil, Russia, and Czech Republic, with Emerging markets and oil producers such as Brazil and Russia impacted the most.

    Finally, here are JPM’s thoughts on the US:

    Zooming in on the US, auto sales have stabilized over this year despite a solid gain last quarter. Year-to-date, auto sales are up only 1.4%. Nevertheless, at 17.7mn units (saar), US auto sales remain robust. And with the balance of auto loans peaking recently above $1 trillion, there are growing concerns about asset quality. For now, delinquency rates are low. However, given the 35% rise over the past four years in low-credit-score auto loans, the risks are increasing of a more serious deterioration in the event of an economic slowdown.

    This is precisely the base-case scenario that prompted Goldman Sachs to downgrade the US auto sector and to warn that the US auto cycle has finally peaked. As for record global auto sales, the question now becomes how much longer China can carry the world on its shoulders as it redirects its bubble-creating might to yet another asset class, and how the global manufacturing base will respond when this latest bubble shortly bursts too.

     

  • Statistician Warn Of "Systemic Mainstream Misinformation" In Poll Data

    Submitted by Salil Mehta via Statistical Ideas blog,

    Antagonism isn't perpetual

    If you recently glanced at the polls and the election markets, then you would be forgiven to believe that a landslide election is looming.  It's likely not, and the spreads have the potential to revert in surprising ways between now and Election Day.  The drumbeat of negative news against Donald Trump may not cause further damage.  We've discussed numerously, starting on October 11 and October 12, that Hillary Clinton's runaway spread would revert (here, here, here, here). 

    Of course that's a stand taken against a popular headwind, but also an opportunity to make money on an election bet that is mispriced.  For example, when we wrote the reversion article, the betfair ask that Mr. Trump's popular vote could remain in the 40's% was only priced at 1:6 odds.  Nate Silver's 538 site also reflected this, as shown below.  But we -and other academic statisticians- knew that this was faux election probability, and advised thousands to remain vigilant against planned mainstream misinformation

    Incidentally, today's betfair bid is 20% higher; not many investments have risen 20% in just the past couple days.  And the wager could explode to 500% profit, exposing how steeply deluded the polls have been.  This article isn't merely about gambling, but goes to the heart of what makes polls different among one another, and across time.  And what should we be cautious of when interpreting the information, while almost never reading (and sometimes not having access to) all the underlying probability details of the poll generation?  In particular, we'll delve into the inconspicuous L.A. Times poll here, where for much of the past month they showed Donald leading Hillary.  How did they come to that, and what value is there in paying attention to alleged outliers?

    Recently the New York Times (NYT) wrote a piece that the USC/L.A. Times (LAT) poll was biased against Hillary Clinton by at least 4 percentage points, through the exaggerated sampling of one Black Chicago youth.  The NYT thesis for sampling issues was not based on general theory at all, but only because the survey respondent was a feverish Donald Trump supporter.  Apparently the LAT has always been a good pollster until this one Black man became a Trump supporter; now the LAT poll is suddenly comprehensively terrible.  Right… Now the NYT was both smart and correct in pointing out the seeming anomaly, but also misdiagnosed the root cause of the puzzle.

    The LAT should retain their entire sample, and not simply alter responses because the pollster doesn't like what he or she hears.  Removing select responses has that same effect, and this is partly why mainstream pollsters have systematically unfavored Republicans in nearly 2/3 of elections in the past several decades, where there have been a meaningful surprise in the general election outcomes.  And in every case where such a reversal of fate has led to an actual victory for the October polling-laggard, it was always a Republican who won.  This should give everyone pause to consider the strength of these "scientific" polls.  We can often see something be misrepresented, yet be masquerade as disciplined science.

    Now the LAT pollster allows for some interesting statistical features that are not in other polls (many of which follow our blog).  For example, it allows the survey participant to partially self-weigh their own response, and factors in his or her own prior voting record.  These are worthy developments in most cases, including the case here of the 19-year old Black Trump supporter.  Polling has to fill in a lot of gaps, particularly this year where there are a greater than normal number of undecideds and non-responders.  This increases the error, not lessens it (per our viral article here read by >100 thousand including senior advisers of both parties).  And the fact that most other polls do not scale their survey responders accordingly, equally leads to a higher than expected favorability (based only on momentum) for those who for now agree with Ms. Clinton more so than Mr. Trump.

    Of course we know across all polls this year there is a perception that Hillary has an polling edge when it comes to "perceived" favorability or social desirability (it's been noted that 10-15% of people have lost a friend due to the 2016 election); though this conflates with the overall bias going back many decades and so it's unclear how much additional bias comes from that.  But the NYT overestimates the overall edge that the LAT has if this one Black youth is completely off in his responses; it is only about 1-2 percentage points.  Not enough to close the nearly 5-10 percentage point difference the LAT has with the rest of the mainstream polls.  The NYT is correct that the overweighting by LAT may exist however, in that this one individual is weighted a little more relative to the typical person.  But this does not negate the data point altogether.  Does anyone credibly believe that not a single Black person is going to vote for Donald Trump?

    The bottom line is that polls on the fringes (e.g., the LAT and to a lesser degree only the trends in the conservative-advocating Rasmussen both showing Mr. Trump leading for much of the past month) should be taken a little more seriously due to the informative value they provide in how the many undecideds and non-responders will ultimately vote.  In historical polling data people tend to make up their mind for candidates, and rarely does it lead to further subtractions from current polling levels.  It is doubtful therefore that somehow any new negative information about Donald would compel someone, at long last in these final weeks, to ultimately switch allegiances.  And while the theory of poll of polls works great to reduce the variance of errors, it does nothing to counter any systematic errors we may see hurtling through in the current election cycle.  This is a significant lesson that remains lost among political hacks keen to simply analyze the data.

    Another note is that you should be wary of taking too seriously the political advice of people who so recently badly errored in the Primary elections!  This is not to cast a spotlight on any one individual, since the entire field of data journalism just saw a catastrophic result over the past year.  But it's clear from the polling and the prediction betting market levels that the grave lessons from the past have not yet been learned.  This summer's Brexit vote was just another example of election-eve overconfidence by pollsters and bookies.  But stateside we do see the promotion of false confidence on preposterous polling statistics.  The media ratings pursuit must inherent some blame, since news demands easily digestible insight that crookedly beguiles their patrons.  And if we expose the overshadowing uncertainty surrounding these election predictions, then no one would venture into paying further attention.  Even more reason for you to pay some attention to the outlier polls, especially this year!

     

  • Russia Slams "Unprecedented, Insolent" US Cyber Threats, Vows Retaliation

    In a striking report released on Friday night by NBC, the Obama administration was reportedly “contemplating an unprecedented cyber covert action” (it remains unclear how the action is covert if Biden announced it to the world via an interview with Chuck Todd), a “wide-ranging clandestine cyber operation designed to harass and “embarrass” the Kremlin leadership”, in retaliation for alleged interference in the American presidential election, and has asked the CIA to draft plans for a “wide-ranging “clandestine” cyber operation designed to harass and “embarrass” the Kremlin leadership.”

    As we reported last night, Vice President Joe Biden said that Washington is ready to respond to hack attacks allegedly conducted by Russia and designed to interfere with the upcoming US elections.

    “Why haven’t we sent a message yet to Putin,” Chuck Todd, host of the “Meet the Press” show on NBC, asked Joe Biden.

    “We are sending a message [to Putin]… We have a capacity to do it, and…”

    “He’ll known it?” Todd interfered.

    “He’ll know it. It will be at the time of our choosing, and under the circumstances that will have the greatest impact,” the US vice president replied.

    The NBC sources did not elaborate on the exact measures the CIA was considering, but said the agency had already begun opening cyber doors, selecting targets and making other preparations for an operation. “Former intelligence officers told NBC News that the agency had gathered reams of documents that could expose unsavory tactics by Russian President Vladimir Putin”, NBC added.

     

    To be sure, this “leak” of what effectively amount to a cyberwar warning was a calculated move meant to provoke further escalation in tensions between the two nations and a trial balloon to gauge Russia’s response. The response came this morning Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that “US aggressiveness is growing, and threats to carry out cyberattacks against Russia are unprecedented” adding that Russia will take “precautionary measures.”

    The fact is, US unpredictability and aggression keep growing, and such threats against Moscow and our country’s leadership are unprecedented, because the threat is being announced at the level of the US Vice President,” Peskov told RIA Novosti cited by AFP. “Of course, given such an aggressive, unpredictable line, we have to take measures to protect our interests, somehow hedge the risks,” he said, adding that “such unpredictability is dangerous for the whole world.”

    Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov vowed Moscow would respond to any US cyber attacks, saying such threats were “borderline insolence”, the news agency said.

    Accusations against Russia have become louder in recent days with WikiLeaks releasing thousands of “Podesta emails,” exposing Hillary Clinton’s connections to Wall Street and controversial views on Syria, among other things. Numerous left-leaning mainstream media outlets have been quick to accuse the Kremlin of teaming up with WikiLeaks, allegedly providing it with massive amounts of inside scoops to post. The evidence-free allegations have been denied both by Moscow and by WikiLeaks.

    Responding to accusations last week, the Russian presidential press secretary mentioned that “tens of thousands of hackers” try to break into the sites of Russian officials on a daily basis, but this never prompted Moscow to point a finger at Washington.

  • Obamacare Gives Middle Class A Choice: Buy A House Or Get Health Insurance

    The following tweet from Great Stockpix captures not only the reason why the US economy continues to slow down as consumer spending across virtually every category deteriorates, as shown recently courtesy of Bank of America

    … but also distills the “choice” president Obama has given to the middle class: buy a house or get health insurance.

    * * *

    Oh, and as a reminder, the next Obamacare “price shock” is due in just 15 days, at the worst possible time for Hillary Clinton: one week before the elections.

  • Canaries 'In Extremis'

    Submitted by Robert Gore via StraightLineLogic.com,

    Nobody “important” will admit it until after the election, but the resumption of the depression is at hand.

    Most people’s strongest memory of the last financial crisis was the September 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. However, thirteen months prior to that, August 2007, two Bear Stearns’ mortgage hedge funds went bankrupt. That was the bell tolling for the housing market, the mortgage securities market, and—because of the leverage and the interconnections—the global financial system itself. The Dow Jones Industrial Average would not make its high for another couple of months, but for those who knew what they were looking for, the Bear Stearns’ bankruptcies signaled the impending reversal in financial markets and the economy.

    Sometimes one has to see the big picture, and sometimes looking at a host of smaller pictures is more worthwhile. While housing and mortgage finance were the epicenters of the last crisis, there will probably be no single identifiable catalyst for the next one. Not because there are no central-bank sponsored debt-driven bubbles out there, but because there are so many of them, all over the world. Multiple coal mine canaries are in extremis and they’re sending the same message as the Bear Stearns’ bankruptcies did.

    If the US real economy is not already in a recession, it’s on the verge.

    Since 2014, the economy has lost 32,000 manufacturing jobs, while adding 547,000 food service jobs.

     

    Factory orders have declined on a year-over-year basis for 22 straight months, the longest non-”official” recessionary streak in history.

     

    As of August, the Cass Freight Index of transactions by large, non-bulk-commodity shippers has fallen year-over-year for eighteen straight months.

     

    Orders for new long-haul trucks have been in a twenty-month downtrend, and orders last month were the worst for a September since 2009. Volvo Trucks North America, Freightliner (a unit of Daimler), Navistar, and Paccar have announced or implemented layoffs this year.

     

    The Merchandise World Trade Monitor topped out in January, 2015 and July’s number takes it back to the reading for September 2014.

     

    The world’s seventh largest container carrier, South Korea’s Hanjin, recently filed for bankruptcy. Closures and consolidation are the orders of the day for the remaining shippers. Bear markets, overcapacity, and gluts in a range of commodities, other raw materials, intermediate goods, and finished goods garnered a lot of headlines last year and early this year. The headlines have faded but not the underlying conditions. It will take years—far beyond the media’s attention span—and substantial pain before those conditions are remedied or even ameliorated.

     

    Only in Wall’s Street’s bizarro world can the goods economy be dismissed as a small part of the overall economy, which is supposedly driven by finance and services. What does the finance industry finance and the service economy service? In many instances—this will come as no surprise to anybody but Wall Streeters—manufacturing, mining, oil extraction and refining, shipping and trade; all the sectors that are taking gas. Also no surprise: real economy deterioration affects finance and the rest of the service economy.

     

    In August, commercial and industrial loans made by US banks fell for the first time since October 2010. The automobile sector has been a bright spot in the economy, but the lending, particularly subprime lending, that has fueled sales is unraveling. Delinquencies and defaults are rising for subprime auto loans. The delinquency rate is rising even for prime auto loans, although the absolute rate remains low. The aggregated earnings of companies in the S&P 500 have been down for five straight quarters, and will most likely be down for the quarter just ended. In 2015 and all but certainly for 2016, those companies have paid out more in share buybacks and dividends than they have earned.

     

    US commercial bankruptcy filings were up 38 percent year-over-year in September. For the first nine months of 2016 they were up 28 percent from the same period in 2015. Bankruptcy is no longer confined to the oil patch and mining industry. Notably, filings by retailers and restaurants, two bulwarks of the service economy, are increasing. In the last two weeks, four restaurant chains have filed. Say good-bye to that industry’s stellar job growth.

    The recovery since 2009, such as it is, has bestowed most of its meager blessings on those in the top 1 percent of income and wealth. Here’s another inescapable reality for Wall Streeters: a central bank exchanging its conjured-from-thin-air fiat debt scrip for the government’s thin-air fiat debt scrip does not, cannot, produce anything of real economic value. It drives down the interest rate on the government’s fiat debt and it provides a windfall for the 1 percenters who can borrow at low or negative rate and propel asset prices. For the rest of us it’s inconsequential at best, but generally deleterious.

    The inconsequentiality of debt monetization is confirmed by the real world details enumerated above, which indicate the weakest so-called recovery on record is faltering and will soon end, if it has not already done so. There is, of course, no chance that even the faltering will be officially recognized before the election. SLL has maintained that the period since 2009 is merely an interlude in an ongoing depression, similar to respites during the Great Depression. By discouraging true savings, adding to the debt pile, and driving down the return on investment, debt monetization has hindered rather than helped the real economy. The anemic growth rate since 2009 is not despite skyrocketing government debt and soaring central bank balance sheets, but because of them. FDR and his hapless New Dealers would be proud.

    Weakness is even percolating up to the rarified ranks of the 1 percent. Rents are falling and high-end real estate sales slowing in Silicon Valley, the Bay Area, New York, and Houston, formerly pockets of economic strength. The art market, especially for “art” that most of us don’t call “art,” has noticeably softened. The demand for luxury goods isn’t what it used to be, and many purveyors have issued revenue and profit warnings. Those markets have been propelled by Chinese, Russian, and Arab buyers, but home economies are facing challenges and they’re pulling in their horns.

    The “donut” of the global economy is history’s greatest debt bubble, fueled by governments and central banks. The unimportant “hole” is whatever critical hot spot ultimately sends markets and economies down the drain. Who knows which crisis will be assigned the “blame” for the impending cataclysm. The odds-on-favorite is the looming European banking crisis, but here are plenty of other contenders—a pension fund or insurance company driven to insolvency by ZIRP and NIRP, Chinese debt, an upside break out in Middle Eastern or Ukrainian hostilities, political turmoil in Europe or the US—take your pick. No matter which possibility proves out, be prepared. Things will get very ugly, very fast.

  • Europe Launches Largest "Cyber Wargame" In History As Threat Of Cyber Terrorism Looms

    Just as the Obama administration announced plans to provoke a cyber war with Russia over their alleged ties to the hack of Hillary’s emails, Europe is launching the biggest “cyber wargame” in history to prepare for emergency responses to power cuts, banking outages etc.  According to a press release posted by the European Union Agency for Network and Information Security (ENISA), the war games will include various scenarios including power outages and attacks on various national and governmental agencies.

    Today marks the climax of this realistic scenario which thousands of experts from all 28 EU Member States, Switzerland and Norway are facing in Cyber Europe 2016 – a flagship activity organised every two years by ENISA, the EU Agency for Network and Information Security.

     

    Cyber Europe 2016 (CE2016) is the largest and most comprehensive EU cyber-security exercise to date. This large-scale distributed technical and operational exercise started in April 2016, offering the opportunity for cybersecurity professionals across Europe to analyse complex, innovative and realistic cybersecurity incidents. On 13th and 14th of  October ICT and IT security industry experts  from more than 300 organisations, including but not limited to: national and governmental cybersecurity agencies, ministries, EU institutions as well as internet and cloud service providers and cybersecurity software and service providers will be called upon to mitigate the apex of this six-month long cyber crisis, to ensure business continuity and, ultimately, to safeguard the European Digital Single Market

     

    Cyber Europe 2016 paints a very dark scenario, inspired by events such as the blackout in an European Country over Christmas period and the dependence on technologies manufactured outside the jurisdiction of the European Union. It also features the Internet of Things, drones, cloud computing, innovative exfiltration vectors, mobile malware, ransomware, etc. The exercise will focus on political and economic policies closely related to cybersecurity. This also takes into account new processes and cooperation mechanisms contained in the Network and Information Security (NIS) Directive. For the first time, a full scenario was developed with actors, media coverage, simulated companies and social media, bringing in the public affairs dimension associated with cyber crises, so as to increase realism to a level never seen before in cybersecurity exercises.

     

    Per ZD Net, the cyber war games were launched back in April and have been building up to a “major cyber security crisis with a series of fictional attacks on European digital networks.”

    More than 700 security experts are battling a fictional cyber crisis featuring power cuts, drones and ransomware as part of the European Union’s biggest cyber defence exercise to date.

     

    Cyber Europe 2016 kicked off back in April, as since then has been simulating the build up to a major cyber security crisis with a series of fictional attacks on European digital networks, culminating in this week’s finale, where security industry experts from more than 300 organisations work together “to ensure business continuity and, ultimately, to safeguard the European Digital Single Market.”

     

    “Computer security attacks are increasingly used to perform industrial reconnaissance, lead disinformation campaigns, manipulate stock markets, leak sensitive information, tamper with customer data, sabotage critical infrastructures,” warns the scenario.

    For the first time ever the European cyber war games will include a full suite of actors simulating media coverage as well as company and social media reactions.

    ENISA said the exercise features the Internet of Things, drones, cloud computing, innovative exfiltration vectors, mobile malware and ransomware. For the first time, it said, a fully fledged story was developed with actors, media coverage, simulated companies and social media, so as to make the scenario as realistic as possible to those participating.

     

    Because cyber defence is seen as an pressing international issue there are now a number of these large-scale exercises: NATO runs ‘Locked Shields’, which involves around 550 people across 26 nationalities, and is based in Tallinn. The US runs the ‘Cyber Guard’ event every year, which this year saw around 1,000 players dealing with a fictional attack on an oil refinery, power grids, and ports.

    Depending on how far the Obama administration is willing to go with threats to launch a cyber attack against Russia we could have some very real data for ENISA to analyze in the not so distant future about how a country actually responds to a “cyber war.”

  • The "World's Most Bearish Hedge Fund" Reveals Its Next Big Short

    We have previously dubbed Shannon McConaghy’s Horseman Global the world’s most bearish hedge fund for one reason: as recently as a few months ago the fun had taken its net equity short position to an unprecedented -100%. At the end of September, it had modestly trimmed this short to a more modest -87.5%

    What is perhaps just as impressive is that despite the fund’s massive bearish bias, if only in equities, it has managed to keep its YTD return virtually flat, with more profitable than unprofitable months so far in 2016. The offset? A whopping 66% gross long position in bonds.

    And while we have recently documented Horseman‘s pessimistic outlook on Japan, when it comes to the most bearish hedge fund in the world there are shorts, and then there are shorts. In its latest, October, letter to clients the fund reveals what it believes may be just one example of the latter, having taken its exposure in the sector to a massive -20%, and what – if true – could be the next “big short” idea.

    This is what Russell Clark, CIO of Horseman, said in its latest letter to clients:

    You fund made 1.44% net this month, with gains from the short book and the currency book offset by losses from bonds.

     

    “I know he is a good general, but is he lucky?” is apparently a quote from Napoleon. I often think about this quote when looking at the investment management industry. There are numerous successful fund managers who I have looked at and met, who I would describe as more lucky than good. There are far more fund managers I have met who I would describe as good, but unlucky. In fact, the market will almost by definition create more unlucky managers than lucky managers, as almost all jobs in fund management tended to be created at market tops.

     

    This is quite well known, and it is why most investors are always try to invest where no one else is, in some bombed out sector that lacks excitement. While I understand this, it has two very major problems. Firstly, how can you be sure it’s totally bombed out? As my first boss pointed out to me, the difference between a stock that has fallen 80% and a stock that has fallen 90% is 50%. Secondly, liquidity at lows can mean you will not be able to exit for many years.

     

    From my point of view, why don’t we try and do the opposite? Pick out sectors that have been fashionable with managers that have been in the right place at the right time, and then short sell what they own. It has two big benefits. First I find timing this to be much easier. And second, at the top of the market liquidity is plentiful. The only issue is you have to be able and willing to short sell.

     

    So how do you pick a sector or strategy that is at the top of the cycle? Perhaps the best sign of all is a fund that has grown assets rapidly. In the US, I find funds that have reached 20bn in AUM from 5bn in AUM within one or two years are typically great places to look. I feel that when a fund manager grows that quickly, they are typically focusing on maximising management fees over performance.

     

    So what funds have we been looking at recently. As detailed in my recent note on Japan based US REIT funds, these funds look particularly egregious to me. Furthermore, they are raising assets even though US REITs in Yen terms have gone nowhere in the last few years. I find this an exciting area to short, and we have taken this sector to 20% of the fund this month. I find there are a number of equity income funds that have also grown rapidly over the last few years, and I am looking carefully at their long positions for short ideas.

     

    My other observations about fund management has been that investors are pulling out of active strategies and buying passive strategies. There are good reasons for this, as the unpredictable shifts in momentum in the markets have caused active fund management to underperform significantly. However, it feels to me that passive strategies have grown too fast too quickly. I think active fund management is about to have its day in the sun.

     

    Given that the Horseman Global fund is short equities and long bonds, that is about as active as you can get. Or in other words, I am getting bullish on bearishness!

    Clark then gives the following drilldown on the US REITs sold in Japan to justify his bearish stance:

    This month profits came from the short portfolio, in particular from the European and Japanese banks, automobile and consumer staples sectors.The long portfolio incurred a modest loss.

     

    In Japan one perk of getting old is a gift of a silver cup from the prime minister in the year you celebrate your 100th birthday. As the Japanese population is aging, almost 32,000 people were eligible to receive the gift this year, up 4.5% from last year, the government decided to present cups made of silver plate rather than sterling, this year, reducing total spending on the gifts.

     

    The birth rate in Japan has been low for many years (1.4 per woman versus 1.9 in the US and the UK) and the country has very little immigration. As a result the population is ageing. According to the estimate by the Internal Affairs and Communications Ministry, the ratio of people 80 or older accounts for 7.9 percent of the total population, which is more than the entire population of Sweden. The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research forecasts that people aged 65 or older will account for 36.1 percent of the total by 2040. For more information on Japan’s depopulation please refer to Shannon McConaghy’s notes entitled ‘South West Japan Trip’. In our opinion depopulation is a major deflationary force as it suppresses domestic demand.

     

    The generation of 21-year-olds entering the workforce is the first to have grown up in a broad state of deflation. Since their birth year in the 1995 residential land prices have fallen 47% including a fall over the last year. With the ratio of abandoned houses expected to rise from 16% to 28% by 2033 it is likely that land prices will continue to fall. With real estate making up 23% of the core consumer price index it is hard to see sustained inflation.

     

    Deflation has also suppressed wage growth, with average monthly earnings falling 8% from Yen 315,000 in 1996 to Yen 289,000 in 2015, the most recent August data shows another decline in average monthly earnings YoY. In turn, tumbling expectations of future security have fuelled savings. A student from Tokyo recently interviewed by the FT said “I often surprise myself. I am more conservative than my grandmother, she lived in a time of war.” Another student said: “Deflation lives in our minds and has become normal. I am sure that if you gave me Y100,000 now, I would save 99 per cent of it.”

     

    The Bank of Japan adopted ‘Quantitative Easing’ some 15 years ago. The resulting low domestic interest rates, have fuelled the ‘Carry Trade’, a strategy in which a Japanese investors seek foreign denominated assets that offer higher yields than domestic assets. But ‘Carry Trades’ are inherently unsustainable as they are founded on the belief that currency rates over time will not adjust back to reflect relative inflation and interest rate differentials. Examples include Japan’s overseas investments into Australian dollar assets before the Global Financial Crises which swiftly lost money as the currencies corrected.

     

    US-Reits sold in Japan have seen large inflows from Japanese investors recently as they offer ~25% yields. In our opinion they are riskier than generally perceived, please refer to Russell Clark’s note entitled ‘Japanese US REIT funds and the buy case for Yen’ and ‘Japanese US REIT Fund – an update’. We expect Japanese fund flows into US REITS to reverse at some point. Over the past few weeks we have built a 17% short position in US REITS. We remain positive on the Japanese Yen relative to the US dollar as carry trades collapse.

    While Horseman is clearly bearish on Japan, however, its biggest net short exposure remains in the US, where it has a nearly -40% net position.

    Finally, while hardly known for its longs, here is the breakdown of the fund’s Top 10 long positions.

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Today’s News 15th October 2016

  • Lead Lewinsky Scandal Reporter Says NBC Is Sitting On 'Devastating Tape' With Juanita Broaddrick

    Submitted by Thomas Lifson via AmericanThinker.com,

    The NBC subsidiary of Comcast is reportedly combing its archives for material damaging to Donald Trump but ignoring requests to air the full interview with Juanita Broaddrick by Lisa Myers 17 years ago.

    According to Brent Schur of the Free Beacon:

    The reporter that first learned about Bill Clinton’s affair with Monica Lewinsky said on Thursday that NBC is sitting on the full tape of its initial interview with Bill Clinton rape accuser Juanita Broaddrick and should release it before the election.

     

    Michael Isikoff, who was a leading reporter during the Monica Lewinsky scandal, said in a Thursday discussion that NBC should release a 17-year-old tape of an interview that it conducted with Broaddrick. Broaddrick has long claimed that the interview that NBC aired edited out her claim that Hillary Clinton was involved in quashing Broaddrick’s rape claims.

     

    “NBC has the full tape of the original Lisa Myers interview,” Isikoff said during an online discussion on Sidewire.com. “NBC ought to check its archive and run the full interview. (AS long as they’re now culling their archives!)”

    The network previously ran the tape but edited out material that was damaging to Hillary.  This conspiracy has some history to it.

    “Folks have made much of the fact that her claim about the conversation she had with Hillary wasn’t in the interview that run,” Isikoff said. “Broaddrick said it got cut out; Lisa Myers has since agreed Broaddrick said this then—and NBC chose to cut it out.”

     

    NBC has never released an unedited version of its interview with Broaddrick.

     

    Both NBC and the Washington Post “closely vetted” Broaddrick’s claims at the time and chose to run with stories on her claims, Isikoff said.

    If we believe that the cover-up is always worse than the crime (which has been media gospel since Watergate, regarded as the high point of American journalism by most journalists themselves), then Hillary’s suspected intimidation of a woman raped by her husband in order to keep her silent surely outweighs any of the accusations of boorishness lobbed at Donald Trump.

    This time, there is tape.  Tape is what made the difference in focusing public attention on Trump's alleged misbehavior.

    Maybe it is time for the torches and pitchforks to start parading in front of 30 Rock.

    *  *  *

    Broaddrick's recent interview…

  • Visualizing America's $18 Trillion Economy (In 3 Stunning Maps)

    The United States has a $18 trillion economy, which makes it the world’s largest by GDP.

    To show its tremendous size, we previously published a visualization of the global economy that carved the world’s economic production into slices based on each country’s contribution to GDP. While this visualization helps to show how large the U.S. economy is in comparison to other nations, it still doesn’t seem to tell the full story.

    After all, the United States is geographically vast and diverse, and population is spread out and unevenly distributed. This means production and innovation are both concentrated in some areas of the country, while other parts are clearly more rural.

    How can we account for these differences to get a more accurate view of the U.S. economic engine?

    3 MAPS TO VISUALIZE AMERICA’S $18 TRILLION ECONOMY

    Luckily, Mark J. Perry from AEI’s Carpe Diem blog has done some heavy lifting here to help us better understand the size and scope of America’s economy activity.

    Here’s three maps that will make you think:

    The first map redraws state borders to make seven “mega-states” that each have individual economies the size of major countries. California, for example, has an economy the size of France. The whole Northeast has an economy the size of Japan, and so on.

    But even states are very diverse in geography – for example, Arizona has 6.7 million people, but more than two-thirds of those people live in the Phoenix metro area.

    The second map compares the economies of metropolitan areas with entire countries. As you can see, the aforementioned Phoenix metro area has similar economic output to Portugal.

    Meanwhile, the whole corridor from New York through to Washington, D.C. is as big as Canada, Iran, Czech Republic, and Sweden combined.

    The final map builds on this idea, showing that half of America’s economic output comes just from a selection of metropolitan areas. The other half of America’s $18 trillion economy is based in the large swaths of land in between, including thousands of rural areas, villages, towns, and cities.

  • Scenes From The Apocalypse – Mass Immigration Ruins The Streets Of France

    The Paris you know or remember from adverts or brochures no longer exists. While no part of Paris looks like the romantic Cliches in Hollywood movies, some districts now resemble post-apocalyptic scenes of a dystopian thriller. This footage, taken with a hidden camera by an anonymous Frenchman in the Avenue de Flandres, 19th Arrondissement, near the Stalingrad Metro Station in Paris as well as areas in close proximity, shows the devastating effects of uncontrolled illegal mass immigration of young African males into Europe.

    If it weren't for the somewhat working infrastructure, the scene might as well have been the setting of movie shooting – or a slum in Mogadishu. The streets are littered in garbage, the sidewalks are blocked with trash, junk and mattresses, thousands of African men claim the streets as their own – they sleep and live in tents like homeless people.

    If no portable toilets are in reach, open urination and defecation are commonplace. Tens of thousands of homeless Illegal immigrants, undocumented or waiting for a decision of their asylum application, waste away trying to pass the time in the city. Although their prospects of being granted asylum as Africans are bleak, they're hoping for a decision that would grant them an apartment, welfare and make France their new home.

    The conditions are absolutely devastating. The police have given up trying to control these areas, the remaining French people avoid the areas at all cost, crime and rape is rampant, just recently mass brawls and riots made the news as fights broke out near the Stalingrad metro station.

    If current trends continue and the French become minority in their own capital in even more areas, scenes like this might spread to areas frequented by tourists, forever changing the last romantic parts of Paris that match what most people have in mind when they think of the iconic city.

    *  *  *

    Ah, Paris in the fall; less crowds, color everywhere, less expensive, hot chocolate season, and the Palais-Royal Gardens are lovelier than ever. However, there's just one thing…

    Source: Generation Europe

  • How Hillary Sleeps At Night

    Don’t leave home without it…

     

    Source: Townhall.com

  • Is The US On The Verge Of Mass Race Riots?

    Submitted by Stephen McBride Of The Passing Parade

    Ferguson, Baltimore, Ferguson (again), Milwaukee, Charlotte. Much has been made by the media of the recent riots that have taken place across America.

    Which begs the question: Are these riots passing occurrences or, like a series of smaller seismic events, a forewarning of much larger mass civil unrest to come? For the answers, we take a quick trip back in time.

    Watts the Problem?

    Although today’s “flash” riots are increasingly common, they pale in comparison to what took place in the Los Angeles suburb of Watts in 1965 where over six days of rioting and looting 34 people died, 3,500 were arrested, and over $40 million in property damage was done ($300 million in 2016 dollars).

    The riots were sparked when black motorist Marquette Frye was arrested for drunk driving. Locals watched on as the incident unfolded, with word quickly spreading that police had assaulted Frye and a pregnant woman, triggering the Watts riots. Although Frye’s arrest set off the riots, it was merely the straw that broke the camel’s back, unleashing decades of pent-up frustration within the black ghetto.

    Starting in the 1920s, large populations of black people migrated north to cities such as Detroit, St. Louis, and Los Angeles to pursue jobs in newly established manufacturing industries. In LA, the black population jumped from 4% in 1940, to 14% in 1965. But there was a problem.

    LA had long had restrictive covenants preventing blacks from buying and renting property in certain areas. By 1950, around 90% of housing was off limits to black people, effectively concentrating the black immigrants to the city into ghettos such as Watts. By 1965, the city’s expanding black population had had enough of the living conditions and general lack of opportunities.

    At the time, Watts had a 33% unemployment rate, much higher than the national average of 4.5%. Although there were large manufacturing companies in the area, such as General Motors, only 14% of LA’s population owned a car, with most having to use the dreadful public transport system. It took over four hours on public transport to get from Watts to the GM factory, just 22 miles away.

    There were also extremely poor living conditions in Watts. Multiple families regularly shared one-bedroom houses. 65% of all tuberculosis cases in LA came from Watts, and infant mortality was 22% higher than the national average. There was also widespread crime, with over half the black male population having a criminal record.

    These appalling conditions set the stage for the now legendary Watts riots. But even those riots pale in comparison to the events that took place 27 years later.

    The Infamous South Central Riots

    Following the acquittal of four policemen on trial for the beating of Rodney King, six days of mass looting, arson, and rioting took place in South Central LA. The California National Guard, the 1st Marine Division, and the 7th Infantry Division had to be called in to quell the unrest, which resulted in 55 deaths, 11,000 arrests, and over $1 billion in property damage. But once again, the Rodney King incident was only the spark that lit the flame in LA.

    In the decade preceding the LA riots, large manufacturers such as GM and Goodyear relocated, resulting in huge job losses in the area. To compound the misery, the city was hit hard by the 1991 recession. LA, with a population of 3.4 million, lost over 108,000 jobs between 1991 and 1992.

    The combination of exiting manufacturing companies and the recession left 45% of South Central’s black population unemployed, with 31% of black families living below the poverty line. In addition, the average wage in the area was 50% lower than in the rest of LA.

    Even 27 years after the Watts riots, police brutality was still widespread in the area. Between 1986 and 1990, there were 2,152 claims of police brutality. Only 42 were ever investigated. There was also an ongoing crack epidemic, which along with AIDS actually decreased the rising life expectancy among black Americans by two years between the late ‘80s and early ‘90s. The 758 liquor stores situated in the neighborhood didn’t help matters either.

    Furthermore, in part because of the soaring drug use, Los Angeles found itself the epicenter of vicious street violence. Between 1991 and 1992, there were over 2,100 homicides. For comparison, in 2015 the number of homicides was a still-too-high 600.

    But that was then, and this is now.

    Given the attention recent riots have garnered in the media, and the creation of groups such as Black Lives Matter (BLM), one would think the social and economic decay for black Americans has continued. But that narrative would be misleading because conditions have improved considerably.

    • Life expectancy for black Americans at the time of the Watts riots was 65, today it’s 76. The three-year gap with white Americans is the lowest ever, with the gap being reduced by four years since 1992.
    • The poverty rate has declined by 23% since 1965, with the rate actually increasing by 1% for white Americans.
    • Today, 87% of black Americans graduate high school, compared to just 25% of all Americans in 1965.
    • College enrollment has increased by 72% for blacks since 1992.
    • The death-by-homicide rate has declined by 40% since 1992, vs. a 28% drop for whites.
    • The infant mortality rate has decreased by one-fifth since the 1990s.
    • Homeownership has increased 14% since 1965, to 42%, though it is still well below the 71% for whites.

    So, given the improvements in quality of life for black Americans, why have recent riots occurred?

    The (Not So Hidden) Agenda

    The recent riots that have taken place across America have largely been in response to real and perceived injustices against black Americans by law enforcement. Black Lives Matter (BLM), founded in 2013 after the George Zimmerman/Trayvon Martin incident, has been a prominent force in the riots.

    While we have all heard of BLM by now, in an attempt to find out what they actually stand for, we present the description the group itself provides on its website:

    #BlackLivesMatter is a call to action and a response to the virulent anti-Black racism that permeates our society. Black Lives Matter is a unique contribution that goes beyond extrajudicial killings of Black people by police and vigilantes. It goes beyond the narrow nationalism that can be prevalent within Black communities, which merely call on Black people to love Black, live Black and buy Black, keeping straight cis Black men in the front of the movement while our sisters, queer and trans and disabled folk take up roles in the background or not at all.

    So, in addition to the meme that BLM is a response to the killing of black people by police, its mandate leaks over into the whole politically correct gender identity morass.

    We will ignore the gender identity issue, because the question of whether a transsexual is a better advocate for the black community than a “cis” male (for the unenlightened among you, that simply means a person who identifies with the sex they are born with) is unlikely to spark riots. Instead, we turn to the notion that racist white police officers have declared open season on unarmed black men. So how bad, really, is the problem?

    As you can see in the chart, so far in 2016 there have been 238 white people killed by police, compared to 123 black people.

    The media correctly cites that “blacks are only 13% of the population” to suggest the above statistics prove active targeting of blacks by police. Sadly, it is also true that blacks commit violent crime at a far higher rate than their percentage of the population. According to FBI statistics, 47% of all murders in the US are committed by blacks, with the vast majority—90%—of their victims also being black.

    However, there is no reason to let the facts interfere with the narrative. Even a casual glance at the headlines reveals the media are playing a dangerous game of race-baiting, cherry-picking incidents where blacks are the victims of whites.

    Take, for example, the George Zimmerman/Trayvon Martin case. The media repeatedly reported that Zimmerman is white, even though he is Hispanic. NBC went so far as to edit the phone call made to police by Zimmerman so it sounded like he was “racially profiling” Martin. Finally, they used pictures that portrayed Martin as a young boy, whilst showing Zimmerman in an orange jail suit.

    The media used the same tactics when reporting on the Michael Brown incident in Ferguson. They consistently ran with the “Hands up, don’t shoot” narrative that Officer Darren Wilson had killed Michael Brown execution-style. This was, of course, later found to be false.

    Although the media are the ones distorting the facts, they are not the only ones guilty of deliberately stirring the pot of racial tensions.

    Pandering Politicians

    Identity politics is a game politicians love to play.

    On Hillary Clinton’s campaign website, her racial-justice plan is almost twice as long as her economic plan. You will also find racial notes dotted throughout all her various proposals: “African Americans hold only 1.1 percent of energy jobs and receive only 0.01 percent of energy sector profits,” in case you were wondering.

    After the recent police shootings in Tulsa, OK, and Charlotte, NC, and before all the facts had been released, Clinton took to Twitter to condemn the shootings.

    Similar comments have been made by President Obama. Speaking the morning after Trayvon Martin was killed, he said “Trayvon Martin could have been me 35 years ago.”

    But the liberal elites don’t just talk the talk. They put their money where their mouth is.

    Follow the Money

    Black Lives Matter, which has been involved in riots from Ferguson to Charlotte, has received more than $50 million in funding from liberal foundations. In August of this year, The Ford Foundation and Borealis Philanthropy announced the formation of the Black-Led Movement Fund. This fund aims to raise an additional $100 million for the Black Lives coalition over the next six years.

    This funding comes in addition to the $33 million given to BLM by top Democratic donor George Soros, though his Open Society Foundations.

    Indeed, so committed are the Democrats and their donors to playing the race card to shore up their voting blocks, they have gone so far as to pay protesters during this election cycle. The recent DNC leaks exposed that the Democrats were paying protesters to disrupt Trump rallies, including devising a plan to spend over $800,000 to interrupt the Republican National Convention in Cleveland.

    The recent riots in Charlotte also had outside help. A police spokesperson said of the protesters, “They were coming in on buses from out of state. If you go back and look at some of the arrests that were made last night. I can about say probably 70% of those had out-of-state IDs. They’re not coming from Charlotte.”

    Black Votes Matter

    Politicians play the identity politics game for good reason: it gets them elected.

    Black Americans vote overwhelmingly Democrat. You have to travel back to the last time a Clinton was running for president, 1996, to find a blacks-voting-Democrat ratio under 90%.

    With black Americans making up 13% of the population and a voter turnout of around 60%, that’s 25 million votes. If the GOP had secured even 20% of the black vote in 2008, or 15% in 2012, it would have been enough to win the race.

    The Democrats must continually receive over 85% of the black vote in order to win. More importantly, they also need a high turnout on election day. Black voters turned out in force for Obama—62% in 2008, an 11% increase on the 2004 turnout.

    But there’s a problem for Hillary. All the pandering in the world, like telling reporters, “I always carry hot sauce with me” when asked what she brought on trips, won’t make her Obama. So can Hillary expect the same levels of black-voter turnout that Obama was able to garner? The polls suggest not.

    In a recent group of polls from Florida, Clinton was polling at less than 80% with black residents. Leslie Wimes, the South Florida-based president of the Democratic African-American Women’s Caucus said the Clinton camp is in “full panic mode,” as Clinton needs a high black turnout to secure the state.

    But there’s another way to ensure people turn out: keep them angry, resentful, and make them feel they have something to gain from voting. Just like when Donald Trump appeals to the emotions of people who have lost their jobs to globalism, Hillary appeals to people who have been the victims of “historical injustices.”

    The Democrats, with the help of wealthy liberal donors, have done just that by directly funding groups such as Black Lives Matter, which maliciously stir up racial tensions and make rioting their job.

    Which returns us to the question of whether America is on the verge of mass civil unrest.

    Good for Another Few Miles

    Recent riots have been encouraged by political brinksmanship and the race-baiting media, which have done their best to raise the profile of BLM and effectively make them the new official spokespersons for the minority of blacks in America who are unhappy with their overall lot in life.

    Yet, the protests are nowhere near the severity of those seen in LA in 1965 or 1992, exactly because the conditions for most black Americans have greatly improved.

    Any thinking person, no matter what race, understands there is a serious economic price for these riots, a price that is paid by hard-working people through business closures and damage to real estate values. In Baltimore, there was only $20 million in direct damage, but over 380 businesses were forced to close as a result, with only 40% expected to open back up. Tourism in the city has dropped around 15% since. That is economic pain that will extend well into the future.

    Property owners and businesspeople in Ferguson also took a big hit. Real estate prices have declined 47% since 2014, and local sales have dropped 80%. And the pain is far from over as few new businesses are going to be willing to invest in the town, given the obvious risks.

    Maybe, if politicians stopped promoting dangerous and largely untrue memes in order to gain black votes, race relations would improve as much as the conditions for most black Americans have over the past 51 years.

    In conclusion, despite what the media and politicians would have you believe, because of the broader economic gains, the US is highly unlikely to experience anything more than localized outbreaks by malcontents looking for trouble and maybe a broken-window discount at the expense of the local businesses.

    I remember when I was going to my family doctor as a child. After treating me for whatever ailed me, he would say, “Well, you’re good for another few miles.”

    Likewise, although we have seen a pick-up in unrest, America appears to be “good for another few miles.”

  • Obama Tells CIA To Prepare For Cyber War With Russia

    In what is looking more and more like a season finale of the HBO series “House of Cards” with each passing day, the Obama administration is now literally threatening a cyber war with Russia over allegations it was behind the hacking of Clinton’s emails.  According to an exclusive NBC report, the Obama administration “is contemplating an unprecedented cyber covert action” (though it’s unclear how exactly it’s covert if Biden is announcing it to the world via an interview with Chuck Todd)  against Russia, in “retaliation for alleged” interference in the American presidential election, and has asked the CIA to draft plans for a “wide-ranging “clandestine” cyber operation designed to harass and “embarrass” the Kremlin leadership.”

    So now the Obama administration is overtly leveraging the full power of the United States to intimidate foreign governments, and most likely Julian Assange, in order to maintain control of the Executive Branch of the government.  Does anyone within the mainstream media see any problems with this?  Certainly Chuck Todd and NBC do not.  And notice that even the NBC article refers to “alleged” Russian interference because not a shred of evidence has been presented to prove that senior Russian officials were actually behind the hacking of Hillary’s emails…but who needs facts when you have a complicit media eager to advance whatever propaganda is necessary to maintain power?   

    The Obama administration is contemplating an unprecedented cyber covert action against Russia in retaliation for alleged Russian interference in the American presidential election, U.S. intelligence officials told NBC News.

     

    Current and former officials with direct knowledge of the situation say the CIA has been asked to deliver options to the White House for a wide-ranging “clandestine” cyber operation designed to harass and “embarrass” the Kremlin leadership.

     

    The sources did not elaborate on the exact measures the CIA was considering, but said the agency had already begun opening cyber doors, selecting targets and making other preparations for an operation. Former intelligence officers told NBC News that the agency had gathered reams of documents that could expose unsavory tactics by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

     

    Vice President Joe Biden told “Meet the Press” moderator Chuck Todd on Friday that “we’re sending a message” to Putin and that “it will be at the time of our choosing, and under the circumstances that will have the greatest impact.”

     

    When asked if the American public will know a message was sent, the vice president replied, “Hope not.”

    Former CIA officers interviewed by NBC said that there is a long history of the White House plotting potential cyber attacks against Russia.  That said, none of them were ultimately carried out because “none of the options were particularly good, nor did we think that any of them would be particularly effective.”

    Two former CIA officers who worked on Russia told NBC News that there is a long history of the White House asking the CIA to come up with options for covert action against Russia, including cyber options — only to abandon the idea.

     

    A second former officer, who helped run intelligence operations against Russia, said he was asked several times in recent years to work on covert action plans, but “none of the options were particularly good, nor did we think that any of them would be particularly effective,” he said.

    Putin Obama

     

    Others warned that the White House has always caved on plans to follow through with cyber attacks because anything the U.S. can do against Russia, they can also do in response.  As one of the former CIA officers said, “if you are looking to mess with their networks, we can do that, but then the issue becomes, they can do worse things to us in other places.”

    “We’ve always hesitated to use a lot of stuff we’ve had, but that’s a political decision,” one former officer said. “If someone has decided, `We’ve had enough of the Russians,’ there is a lot we can do. Step one is to remind them that two can play at this game and we have a lot of stuff. Step two, if you are looking to mess with their networks, we can do that, but then the issue becomes, they can do worse things to us in other places.”

     

    Putin is almost beyond embarrassing, he said, and anything the U.S. can do against, for example, Russian bank accounts, the Russian can do in response.

     

    “Do you want to have Barack Obama bouncing checks?” he asked.

     

    Former CIA deputy director Michael Morell expressed skepticism that the U.S. would go so far as to attack Russian networks.

     

    “Physical attacks on networks is not something the U.S. wants to do because we don’t want to set a precedent for other countries to do it as well, including against us,” he said. “My own view is that our response shouldn’t be covert — it should overt, for everybody to see.”

    Here is a brieg clip of Biden discussing the “covert” planning with NBC’s Chuck Todd.

     

    If the Obama administration is willing to go to such great lengths, literally escalating tensions with another superpower, to protect their candidate from whatever it is that she’s hiding then we suspect whatever WikiLeaks has yet to release could be really good.

  • "A Pretext Is Needed": A False Flag May Be Imminent To Drag U.S. Into War

    As SHTFPlan.com's Mac Slavo warns, "The scenario is plenty likely."

    With so many bizarre events taking place leading up to the election, few Americans are even grounded in reality any more. Perhaps the powers that be, with new and ready scapegoats – like Donald Trump, ISIS or Russia – think that the populace can again be convinced to surrender their liberties and consent to war if a new attack is staged.

     

    They have done it, and they will do it again. This is standard operating procedure:

     

    All America’s Wars Begin with False Flags (and WWIII Will Too)

     

    The narrative under Hillary Clinton will be terrifying, as she destroys every last safeguard against tyranny this country has left standing. The smell of war is in the air, and every patriot should be on guard for the propaganda and salesmanship of another big lie. What do you think will happen?

    False Flag Attack Imminent in Syria as Globalists Engineer World War III

    by WakingTimes.com's Isaac Davis

    Americans are sleepwalking into World War III, and as events in Syria are shaping up it could come any moment as the biggest October surprise ever. At this stage in the conflict, we are one minor event away from all out war between the world’s major super powers, an event which would most certainly result in nuclear war. All that is needed is for the right type of false flag event to serve as provocation.

    “In naval warfare, a “false flag” refers to an attack where a vessel flies a flag other than their true battle flag before engaging their enemy. It is a trick, designed to deceive the enemy about the true nature and origin of an attack.” [Source]

    As the world pretends to be ruled by democratically elected governments, and as the world’s people feign freedom under an ever-expanding surveillance, police and warfare state, some semblance of pretext is needed in order to manufacture sufficient consent for the oligarchy’s standing plans of forcing us into expansion of the Orwellian Permanent War.

    A brief look at how this tactic has historically been used helps to predict what is certainly forthcoming in Syria, as paraphrased from James Corbett of the Corbett Report.

    1780’s – The Swedish-Russian War of 1788-1790 began when Swedish troops were intentionally dressed up as Russian troops then sent to attack their own border with Finland, effectively tricking the public into believing Russia had attacked, thereby kicking off a war will killed thousands.

     

    1931 – The Japanese army deliberately destroyed a portion of a Japanese owned railway, then blamed it on Chinese dissidents to justify the military occupation of Manchuria.

     

    1939 – Nazi war engineers dressed up Polish prisoners in Polish military uniforms and directed them to attack a German radio station. They prisoners were shot dead and their bodies left on the scene as evidence of Polish aggression, leading to Hitler’s invasion of Poland, signifying the official start of World War II.

     

    1954 – Operation Susannah was an Israeli effort to convince the British military to continue their military presence in the Suez Canal, in support of Israeli interests. Egyptian patsies were hired to detonate bombs in American and British civilian targets, then blamed on the Muslim Brotherhood.

     

    1962 – “In 1962 the US Joint Chiefs of Staff authored a document called Operation Northwoods calling for the US government to stage a series of fake attacks, including the shooting down of military or civilian US aircraft, the destruction of a US ship, sniper attacks in Washington, and other atrocities, to blame on the Cubans as an excuse for launching an invasion. President Kennedy refused to sign off on the plan and was killed in Dallas the next year.” [Source]

     

    1964 – A U.S. destroyer patrolling the Gulf of Tonkin was attacked by torpedoes, ostensibly by the North Vietnamese, thereby causing President Johnson the authorization of the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, thus beginning U.S. military involvement in Vietnam. It is now known that no attack actually occurred and that the NSA was involved in fabricating this event.

     

     

    1967 – “In June 1967 the Israelis attacked the USS Liberty, a US Navy technical research ship, off the coast of Egypt. The ship was strafed relentlessly for hours in an apparent attempt to blame the attack on Egypt and draw the Americans into the Six Day War, but amazingly the crew managed to keep it afloat. In 2007 newly released NSA intercepts confirmed that the Israelis knew they were attacking an American ship, not an Egyptian ship as their cover story has maintained.” [Source]

     

    1999 – A series of devastating bombings on civilian apartment buildings in Russia were blamed on Chechen terrorists, although Russian FSB agents were later caught using the exact same type of bombs in what was publicly called a security exercise.

     

    2001 – The 9/11 attacks in New York and Washington were blamed on 19 Al Qaeda terrorists and immediately used the pretext for beginning the Global War on Terror, of which the political doctrine for this was already in place and in play. 15 years later, information about the true nature of the attacks is still surfacing, proving that the 9/11 Commission was a whitewash to help catalyze public support still ongoing wars which were planned prior to 9/11.

    “Further, the process of transformation [of the military], even if it brings revolutionary change, is likely to be a long one, absent some catastrophic and catalyzing event––like a new Pearl Harbor.”[Source]

    Furthermore, other examples of historical significance demonstrate how minor or ambiguous events are seized on and deliberately used as propaganda to achieve the greater objective of drawing nations into war.

    1904 – The sinking of the British ocean liner The Lusitania off the coast of Ireland, which was carrying tons of war materials from America, was blamed on German u-boats, leading to a severe diplomatic row which brought the United States into World War I. Speculation remains as to what exactly happened to the Lusitania, however, the official explanation is highly suspicious, and the event was used to achieve the objectives of war financiers to broaden the conflict.

     

    1933 – A German parliamentary building in the Reichstag was set ablaze one month after Hitler’s election to the office of Chancellor. It is believed that three Bulgarian communists were to blame, however this is contentious among historians. The event was heavily propagandized by the Nazi party to galvanize support for war.

    One can also include in this list an ever-growing growing handful of European and American domestic terror attacks such as the London bombings of 2005, and the Bataclan theatre massacre of Paris in 2015. To further expand on the historical precedent of using false flag attacks to propel agendas of state aggression, many instances of assassination and military intervention into the politics of sovereign nations around the world in order create consent for militarism could be included.

    Final Thoughts

    As the U.S. continues to aid and support ISIS, Al-Nusra and other terrorist organizations in its ploy to overthrow the Assad government for the primary benefit of Israel, a false flag event signaling the beginning of a direct confrontation with Russia could come at any time. At present it looks as though the most likely scenario would be something along the lines of the USS Liberty attack, which would involve the deliberate targeting of our own forces while creating the perception of a Russian attack on U.S. or NATO components.

    The situation in Syria is ripe for exactly this kind of covert, subversive tactic.  There is historical precedence to suggest that a Syrian false flag event is imminent, therefore people the world over must prepare to resist and to survive this.

    *  *  *

    This article was written by Isaac Davis and originally published at Waking Times.

  • An overview of Edge, Edge Dilution, and the Importance of Top Talent (Video)

    By EconMatters


    We discuss some market theory, the revolution happening right now in financial markets, and the important metric of return on invested capital in this video. A sure sign that markets have passed you by is utilizing Alpha and Beta terminology.

    © EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle   

  • Donald Trump Uncensored: This Is America's "Moment Of Reckoning"

    Sometimes, you just have to listen…

    There is nothing that the political establishment wil not do; no lie they will not tell, to hold their prestige and power at your expense… and that’s what’s been happening. The Wasshington establishment – and the financial and media corporations that fund it – exists for one thing only… to protect and enrich itself.”

     

     

    For those who control the levers of power in Washington and for the global special interests – they partner with these people that don’t have your good in mind – our campaign represents a true existential threat… like they haven’t seen before. This is not simply another four-year election; this is a crossroads in the history of our civilization that will determine whether or not we, the people, reclaim control over our government.

    Turn off MSNBC, CNBC, CNN, and NBC and listen – away from the spectacle – to some uncomfortable deep state realities…

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 14th October 2016

  • Hillary Clinton's Axis Of Evil

    Authored by Pepe Escobar, originally posted op-ed via SputnikNews.com,

    Let’s cut to the chase; Hillary Clinton is ready to go to war against Russia in Syria – with inbuilt, potentially terrifying, thermonuclear consequences.

    Anticipating an outcome of the US presidential election as a remix of the 1972 Nixon landslide, Hillary has also coined, George “Dubya” Bush-style, a remixed axis of evil: Russia, Iran and “the Assad regime”.

    That’s not even counting China, which, via “aggression” in the South China Sea, will also feature as a certified foe for the Founding Mother of the pivot to Asia.

    And if all that was not worrying enough, Turkey now seems on the path to join the axis.

    President Putin and President Erdogan met in Istanbul. Moscow positioned itself as ready to develop large-scale military-technical cooperation with Ankara.

    That includes, of course, the $20 billion, Rosatom-built, four-reactor Akkuyu nuclear power plant. And the drive to “speed up the work” on Turkish Stream – which will de facto strengthen even more Russia’s position in the European gas market, bypassing Ukraine for good, while sealing Ankara’s position as a key East-West energy crossroads.

    In addition, both Moscow and Ankara back UN Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura’s position that “moderate rebels” (the Beltway’s terminology) holding eastern Aleppo hostage must be eradicated.

    The geopolitical game-changer is self-evident. As much as Erdogan may be a whirling political dervish, impossible to fathom and trust, while Putin is a master of the strategic long game, Moscow’s and Ankara’s interests tend to converge in the New Great Game; and that spells out closer integration in the dawn of the Eurasian Century.

    Quite a cup of hemlock for Hillary Clinton, who has already equated Putin with Hitler.

    Regime change or hot war?

    In the appalling spectacle that turned out to be round two of the interminable Trump/Clinton cage match, Donald Trump once again made a rational point – expressing his wish for a normalized working relationship with Russia. Yet that is absolute anathema for the War Party, as in the neocon/neoliberalcon nebulae in the Beltway-Wall Street axis.

    The Clinton (Cash) Machine-controlled Democrats once again condemned Trump as a tool of Putin while bewildered Republicans condemned Trump because he goes against “mainstream Republican thinking”.

    Here’s what Trump said; “I don’t like Assad at all, but Assad is killing ISIS. Russia is killing ISIS and Iran is killing ISIS.”

    Trump’s outlook on Southwest Asia relies on only one vector; destroy ISIS/ISIL/Daesh. That’s what adviser and former Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) director, retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, has been infiltrating into Trump’s notoriously short attention span.

    Flynn may have admitted on the record that ISIS/ISIL/Daesh’s progress was a “willful” decision taken by the Obama administration. Yet in his disjointed book Field of Fight, Flynn insists that, “the Russians haven’t been very effective at fighting jihadis on their own territory”, are “in cahoots with the Iranians”, and “the great bulk of their efforts are aimed at the opponents of the Assad regime.”

    This is a neocon mantra; unsurprisingly, the co-author of Flynn’s book is neocon Michael Ledeen.

    From dodgy American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP) armchair “experts” to former counselors at the State Department, they all subscribe to the laughable view that the remixed axis of evil – now fully adopted by Hillary – is useless against jihadis; the good guys doing the difficult work are “the US-led coalition”. And damn those who dare criticizing the “relative moderates” backed by the CIA.

    What Trump said is anathema not only for establishment Republicans who despise Obama for not fighting against the Hillary-adopted remixed axis of evil. The real mortal sin is that it “disregards” core US foreign policy bipartisan assumptions held to be as sacred as the Bible.

    Thus the success of the neocon Ash Carter-led Pentagon in bombing the Kerry-Lavrov ceasefire deal which would imply coordinated airstrikes against both ISIS/ISIL/Daesh and the Front for the Conquest of Syria, formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, a.k.a. al Qaeda in Syria.

    Neocons and mainstream Republicans blame lame duck Team Obama for the “unholy reliance” on Russia and Iran, while neoliberalcons blame Russia outright. And high in the altar of righteousness, hysteria rules, with the neocon president of the NED http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article45643.htm calling for the US government to “summon the will” to pull a Putin regime change.

    Ready to go nuclear?

    Hillary Clinton continues to insist the US is not at war with Islam. The US is de facto at war in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Pakistan’s tribal areas; involved in covert war in Iran; and has totally destroyed Libya. It’s not hard to do the math.

    In parallel, the deafening talk about Washington now advancing a Plan C in Syria is nonsense. There has never been a Plan C; only Plan A, which was to draw Russia into another Afghanistan. It did not work with the controlled demolition of Ukraine. And it will not work in Syria, as Moscow is willing to supply plenty of air and missile power but no boots on the ground of any consequence. That’s a matter for the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), Iran and its Shi’ite militias, and Hezbollah.

    Ash Carter has threatened Russia with “consequences”. After blowing up the ceasefire, the Pentagon – supported by the Joint Chiefs of Staff – now is peddling “potential strikes” on Syria’s air force to “punish the regime” for what the Pentagon actually did; blow up the ceasefire. One can’t make this stuff up.

    Major-General Igor Konashenkov, Russia’s Defense Ministry spokesman, sent a swift message to “our colleagues in Washington”; think twice if you believe you can get away with launching a “shadow” hot war against Russia. Russia will target any stealth/unidentified aircraft attacking Syrian government targets – and they will be shot down.

    The only serious question then is whether an out of control Pentagon will force the Russian Air Force – false flag and otherwise – to knock out US Air Force fighter jets, and whether Moscow has the fire power to take out each and every one of them.

    So in this three-month window representing the “death throes” of the Obama era, before the likely enthronization of the Queen of War, the question is whether the Pentagon will risk launching WWIII because “Aleppo is falling”.

    Afterwards, things are bound to get even more lethal. The US government is holding open a first-strike nuclear capacity against Russia. Hillary firmly supports it, as Trump made clear he “would not do first-strike”. The prospect of having axis of evil practitioner Hillary Clinton with her fingers on the nuclear button must be seen as the most life-and-death issue in this whole circus.

  • The Psychology of Trading: Learning How to Handle Success (Video)

    By EconMatters


    In this video we discuss the Psychology of trading, learning how to handle success and failure in a more reasoned, rational manner. It really boils down to good decision making in Financial Markets.

    © EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle   

  • What Exactly Is Agenda 21?

    Via DaisyLuther.com,

    When most folks hear the words “Agenda 21” they have one of three responses:

    1. Huh? What’s that?

     

    2. Oh yay! It’ll turn the world into Utopia and global warming will stop and life will be rainbows and unicorns again!

     

    3. It’s a plan to remove personal liberty and move us closer to a one-world government. Where the heck is my tinfoil?

    Some folks don’t even believe it exists,  others think it exists but is a good thing turned into a nasty conspiracy theory, and the majority are blissfully oblivious. Even though many people don’t realize it, we’re all being nudged toward an Agenda-21 ruled world. It’s easy, too, because it promises a green world of lollipops and rainbows and most of it will be “free.”

    To put it as simply as possible, Agenda 21 is world domination with a warm, fuzzy glow. Once you understand it, you’ll never look at “regulations” the same way again.

    Here’s how it all started.

    In 1992, peace-loving tree huggers at the UN devised a plan for the world. That’s right – the friendly folks at the UN’s Division for Sustainable Development (DSD) created a master plan for ALL of us.

    Agenda 21 is a comprehensive plan of action to be taken globally, nationally, and locally by organizations of the United Nations System, Governments, and Major Groups in every area in which human impacts on the environment.

    So, let’s see if we understand this correctly.

    • A plan of action. Got it.

    • To be taken globally…okay – everyone must participate.

    • In every area in which human impacts on the environment….yep, that covers everyone and everything in the entire world.

    It’s a warm fuzzy way to take over the world! Group hug, anyone?

    Agenda 21 is a 350-page action plan divided into 40 chapters. It was developed at a summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. The “21” in Agenda 21 refers to the 21st Century. You can read the entire unsettling plot HERE but the general idea is that the group of “leaders” intends to have a collective finger in every pie on the planet.

    I.  SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS

    The first section of the pact plan deals with the people of the world. Particularly, the DSD wants to “help” those in Third World countries live “better”. They’ll be taught:

    • How to make more money by putting everyone to work in perfect accordance with the goals of the Agenda

    • How to maintain their health through vaccinations and modern medicine

    • How to govern themselves in accordance with the plan

    • How to control their populations

    • All in all, they’ll learn how to make decisions that will concur with the ideals of the Agenda.

    II.  CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT OF RESOURCES FOR DEVELOPMENT

    This section includes protection of the atmosphere, land, mountains, oceans, and fresh waters – everything in the environment of a given country. This means that historical ways of using these resources could be outlawed – changing the basic ways of life for the indigenous people to make way for “progress” and “sustainability”.  This gives control of all natural resources to the good folks of the DSD.

    Section 2 (specifically Chapter 9, subsection #8) also uses the unproven science of global warming to further the controls placed on the acquisition and use of resources. This section of the articles of Agenda 21 confers vast taxation on resources while allowing huge companies to use the green ideology to receive carbon credits, reallocating money from the power to the rich under a cloak of green hypocrisy.

    ….the United Nations is demanding $76 trillion from the first world over the next 40 years to encourage the development of “green” technologies in the third world. The defense of such a reckless agenda has rested on the unwarranted claim that the globe was hovering on the precipice of environmental devastation. “Green” ideology has become the bulwark of older agendas: The nations of the West must end their own prosperity, because that is only “fair” — and it necessary to save the world from Capitalist greed.  from The New American

    By specifically outlining the management of all natural resources, it disallows the use of them for any but the 1% in power, effectively keeping people from farming, fishing, mining, or otherwise harvesting the innate supplies provided by their environments.

    III.  STRENGTHENING THE ROLE OF MAJOR GROUPS

    The language in this section implies empowerment of women, children, unions, farmers, and indigenous peoples.  However, if you dig deeper you’ll discover that all of this equality actually means

    • the abolition of personal property

    • the demise of rural living

    • mandatory birth (population) control

    • the “redevelopment” of cities

    So, basically, Communism 101.

    They intend to warehouse people in small areas for a multi-fold goal. It will make them easier to control, easier to poison and/or chemically sterilize through managed food and water supplies, and will remove personal ownership of natural resources.

    The sleight-of-hand empowerment will actually take away the rights of families by disallowing ownership of personal property, curtailing their physical liberty by making all transportation public, and providing a pro-Agenda education/brainwashing for all.

    IV.  MEANS OF IMPLEMENTATION

    This section describes how to get the whole world on board the happy train to Agenda 21-land.

    • Redistribution of financial resources (i.e., taking it away from some and sharing it with others)

    • Technology (public transit, “equal” distribution of energy usage, monitoring of behaviors through big brother technologies)

    • Science and environmentalism (removing people from rural areas to “save” the natural resources from pollution and mismanagement)

    • Re-education (brainwashing with propaganda)

    • Restructuring of local governments (installing puppet leaders)

    This will be presented as Utopian, but really, it will turn everyone into carefully warehoused slaves with just enough food and supplies to make those who don’t think too deeply, content.

    Agenda 21: Not Just for 3rd World Countries

    All of this peace and love isn’t just for developing countries. The principles of Agenda 21 are insinuating themselves into the lives of North Americans and Europeans at warp speed. I’ll bet when you read this list, you can see dozens of ways this plan has begun to take root right in your own backyard.

    • With the decline of the American farm, people are being funneled into the cities in search of work.

    • With the decline of the economy, fewer people can afford private transportation and are therefore limited to the places that public transit will take them.

    • Support of the local down-trodden is geared to further incite class warfare.

    • Separation of families through child protection agencies, Big Brother parenting,  mandatory public schools at younger and younger ages, and the dumbing down of our education system is planned to break down our society even further.

    • Publicly funded health care  (cough*Obamacare* cough) will dictate toxic vaccinations, secretive sterilization, eugenics of the elderly and less-productive members of society, and mandated birth control.

    AGENDA 21 IS FULL-SPECTRUM DOMINATION BY THE 1%. 

    Nothing has been left out.

    • It guarantees both birth control and death control.

    • It promises the basic essentials of life in return for submission.

    • It exchanges critical thinking for re-education and brainwashing.

    • It destroys the epicenter of the family, society, and culture, allowing only one way to live. It groups the population into small contained areas to be more easily controlled.

    • It takes away from some to give to others who will be more easily managed by the promise of a full belly and a warm shelter.

    It’s a parasitical representation of the 1%, feeding on the 99.

    Agenda 21.
    Divide.
    Dumb down.
    Conquer.

    And it’s only going to get worse.

  • An Inside Look At Two "Unrelated" Banker Suicides Reveals A Fascinating Rabbit Hole

    It has been nearly four years since one of the most infamous, and still largely unexplained, banker “suicides” took place, the first in a series of many: we are talking about the death of the director of communications at Monte dei Paschi di Siena, David Rossi, who allegedly jumped to his death on March 6, 2013.

    Since this event has largely faded away from the public consciousness here is a quick recap: David Rossi, who was the head of communications for Monte dei Paschi di Siena bank, which was founded in 1472 and which is currently seeking to finalize its third bailout since the financial crisis, died after falling – or being pushed – from a third floor window of the bank’s headquarters in a 14th century palazzo in the Tuscan city of Siena.

    His death in March 2013 came at a time when the bank was pushed close to the brink of collapse over a scandal involving the loss of hundreds of millions of euros through risky investments.

    While a quickly cobbled together post-mortem found that Rossi, 51, had killed himself, his family strongly suspected that he was murdered because he knew too much about the bank’s shady financial deals. As a result, earlier this year, prosecutors in Siena, where the bank is based, ordered his body to be exhumed and for the trajectory of his fall to be simulated, in an attempt to discover exactly how he died.

    The death itself was suspicious: while Rossi fell, or was pushed, from his office at exactly 7:59:23 pm on March 6, 2013, and landed in a darkened alleyway, he did not die immediately – he was alive for 22 minutes, investigators believe.

    What made Rossi’s death even more puzzling is that security camera footage, released years after his death, showed two shadowy figures appear at the end of the alley, apparently checking that there was no chance he would survive.

    The scandalous video emerged in public this June, when the Post’s Michael Gray used it as the basis for an article asking “Why are so many bankers committing suicide?” For those who have not seen the 4 minute clip, we present it below in its entirety.

    Among the oddities revealed at the site of the alleged suicide is that the executive had bruises and scratches on his arms and wrists which suggested that he may have been gripped forcibly by one or two assailants before being pushed out of the window. On the back of his head was a deep, L-shaped gash suggesting he may have been hit with a blunt object before falling from the window.

    Three apparent suicide notes were found crumpled in a bin in his study, but Antonella Tognazzi, his widow, said they contained phrases that her husband would never have used. One of them said: “Ciao, Toni, my love. I’m sorry.”

    “He never called me Toni, he always called me Antonella,” his widow, who has long contended that her husband did not kill himself but was murdered, said. The recent reopening

    A handwriting expert who analyzed the notes said they seemed to have been written under duress. Another unexplained element is the fact that 33 minutes after Mr Rossi fell from his office window, a call was made on his mobile phone.

    At exactly the same moment, the CCTV footage showed an object falling onto the ground and landing a few feet from the body; it was later found to be Mr Rossi’s watch, minus the strap.

    To be sure, the recent emergence of the video has somehwat placated Rossi’s widow, Antonella Tognazzi, who got her wish for a re-examination into the circumstances surrounding Rossi’s death:  “We’ve been waiting a long time for the investigation to be reopened,” said Ms Tognazzi early this year quoted by the Telegraph. “It’s what we had been hoping for – it’s an important sign on the part of the judiciary. I have never believed he committed suicide.”

    The plot thickens when one digs into the details revealed by the footage captured on the surveillance video.

    The footage shows the three-story fall didn’t kill Rossi instantly. For almost 20 minutes, the banker lay on the dimly lit cobblestones, occasionally moving an arm and leg. As he lay dying, two murky figures appear. Two men appear and one walks over to gaze at the banker. He offers no aid or comfort and doesn’t call for help before turning around and calmly walking out of the alley.

    Two minutes into the clip, Gray also notes that “Italian authorities have yet to identify these two men.”

    Following the Post article, there was a scramble by the Italian press to explain that the two men had indeed been identified, and to suggest that the local police knew, all along who they were. In a statement, the prosecutor of Siena said that the video on the fall of David Rossi “being circulated on the internet corresponds to the one already acquired during the investigation”. Moreover, the two men seen near Rossi’s body in the video footage were already interviewed in the first phase of the investigation.

    “For final confirmation and to avoid any further speculation, we have decided to re-interview the two men in the video as part of the new investigation,” wrote the prosecutor. The two people in question are Giancarlo Filippone and Bernardo Mingrone. “The first, seen wearing a padded jacket, was a colleague and friend of David Rossi, while Mingrone, who is wearing a coat and remains in the background, was at the time a senior executive in the MPS finance department.”

    Courtesy of the police inquest into the suicide can confirm the two individuals seen in the back alley where Rossi died, were indeed his former coworkers Giancarlo Filippone a manager at Monte Paschi and a friend of Rossi, and Bernardo Mingrone, the CFO of Monte Paschi.

    The police report notes the following testimony from Filippone, as recounted by Il Fatto Quotidiano: “I came from work at 18 and later I was contacted by the wife of Rossi who had not heard from her husband and begged me to go and call him. I sent him a text message at 19:41 (…) and got no response, so after waiting a bit I went to the office at 20:30 and when I entered the room I saw the window open, I looked below and saw David’s lifeless body.”

    Mingrone’s testimony was also recorded: “At 20:40 on my way out I was talking on the phone, and just as I was in the hallway on the ground floor of the building heading towards the main exit, I met another man (Filippone) gesticulating dramatically and confused. The concierge mouthed the following words: “David Rossi” then “window”, then after hanging up the phone i met with Rossi’s colleague (Filippone, ed) who told me that David Rossi was thrown from the window. I asked the two where Rossi’s office was located and to accompany me there asking if they had called an ambulance. I entered the office and I looked out the window seeing the body on the ground; at that point I called 118 (emergency sevices) since I had been told that no one had called previously.”

    That’s the official version; the actual video evidence demonstrates no panic, and no distressed among the two individuals, who calmly walk up to the dying body and then calmly walk away. The public prosector found little in the circumstances suspect, and as he detailed on June 17, there was no mystery as to the presence of the two men in the alley, where Rossi was either pushed or had jumped on his own.

    Where some confusion does emerge, however, is that according to a different recount of events that night, Rossi did in fact speak to his wife Antonella whom he called at 19:02, one hour prior to the deadly fall, in which he did not speak as like someone who is going to commit suicide. To the contrary they were making dinner plans: “I will be home at 19.30. I already bought everything you need. But first I need to take the meatballs that I ordered for dinner. See you later.” He would never make it home as he was dead shortly after. Adding to the confusion is that after his death a number was typed on his cell: 409909 which, according to his lawyer, may have been a computer access code. It is unclear what was being accessed or who typed in the code.

    But the question about the presence of the Monte Paschi CFO at the crime (or suicide) scene, is just one part of the mystery.

    Two days prior to Rossi’s death, the communications director sent a cryptic
    email to the bank’s CEO, Fabrizio Viola according to Rossi’s wife. “I want guarantees of not being overwhelmed by this thing,” he wrote. “We would have to do right away, before tomorrow. Can you help me?” As the post previously asked,”it remains a mystery what specifically Rossi thought could “overwhelm” him just before his death, but many have speculated that he was referring to Monte Paschi’s troubled financial position.”

    Incidentally, Fabrizio Viola stepped down as Monte Paschi CEO just one month ago, as the bank was deep in the middle of its latest, third, bailout process which however according to press reports has met substantial procedural hurdles and may not be completed, with speculation a debt for equity swap may be required to facilitate the bank’s rescue.

    Furthermore, Rossi was a close confidant of former bank Chairman, Joseph Mussari, who was the driving force behind Monte Paschi’s 2008 $13 billion purchase of Banca Antonveneta from Spain’s Santander. Many banking analysts agreed at the time that Monte Paschi had overpaid for the acqusition, which incidentally was financed by Deutsche Bank.


    Giuseppe Mussari poses at the ABI headquarters in Rome July 27, 2010

    Adding to the mystery, in October 2014, an Italian court sentenced Mussari to three years and six months in jail for misleading regulators in relation to a 2009 derivative trade with Nomura that prosecutors said was used to conceal losses. The court in Siena, where Italy’s third-biggest lender is based, also sentenced former chief executive Antonio Vigni and ex-finance boss Gianluca Baldassarri to the same jail term. Prosecutors had asked for a seven-year jail sentence for Mussari and six years for Vigni and Baldassarri.

    Prosecutors had accused Mussari, Vigni and Baldassarri of hiding a document known as a mandate agreement, which prosecutors and regulators said made clear that the derivative, called Alexandria, was linked to the acquisition of 3 billion euros worth of long-term Italian government bonds by Monte dei Paschi. The link between the two trades meant they should have received different accounting treatment, which would have shown heavy losses. Alexandria and two other derivatives trades ultimately forced Monte Paschi to restate its accounts and book a loss of 730 million euros on its 2012 results.

    New management at the bank, now working on a plan to fill the 2.1-billion-euro capital hole, has said it only discovered the existence of the mandate agreement when it was found in a safe in Vigni’s former office in October 2012, more than three years after it was signed.

    If so far this all appears very confusing, is because it indeed is.

    Where it gets even more confusing is that in January of this year, three executives from Deutsche Bank, which as we now know was very intimately involved with some of the illegal derivative transactions undertaken by Monte Pasci, were also implicated civilly, including Michele Faissola, the head of Private & Asset Wealth Management at Deutsche Bank— charged by Italian authorities with colluding with the troubled Monte Paschi in falsifying accounts, manipulating the market and obstructing justice.

    Prosecutors have been reconstructing how Monte Paschi’s former managers misrepresented the lender’s finances in the years before it sought a government bailout. The misrepresentation first came to light in January 2013 when Bloomberg reported that Monte Paschi used a transaction with Deutsche Bank, the infamous Santorini (profiled here), to mask losses from an earlier derivative contract. The bank the same year had to restate its accounts

    Faissola denied the charges.


    Michele Faissola, head of Private & Asset Wealth Management

    Faissola, whose roles included overseeing rates and commodities, was put in charge of Deutsche Bank’s combined asset and wealth management division in 2012 when Anshu Jain and Juergen Fitschen took over as co-chief executive officers of the Frankfurt-based lender. Deutsche Bank on Oct. 18 said Faissola would leave after a transition period; his departure came just a few months after the sudden resignation of Co-CEOs Anshu Jain and Jurgen Fitschen in June 2015; it is said that Faissola was their close protege.

    As a reminder, earlier this month, the recently troubled Deutsche Bank was itself charged by Italy for market manipulation and creating false accounts. Additionally, the name Faissole emerged once again, when as Bloomberg reported, six current and former managers of Deutsche Bank, including Michele Faissola, Michele Foresti and Ivor Dunbar, were charged in Milan for colluding to falsify the accounts of Italy’s third-biggest bank, Monte Paschi and manipulate the market.

    Here is where things get interesting.

    Michele Faissola was a coworker of one William S. Broeksmit. By way of background, Broeksmit had two stints at Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank, first from 1996 to 2001, then from 2008 until his retirement in September 2013, having previously worked at Merrill Lynch. When he rejoined the bank in 2008 it was in a newly created position, head of portfolio risk optimization. In 2012, as Jain and Fitschen prepared to take over as CEOs, the duo advanced Broeksmit’s name to become the new chief risk officer. The bank retreated on his nomination after German financial regulator BaFin raised concerns that Broeksmit’s lack of experience managing a large number of employees.

    Broeksmit worked as a consultant from his retriement until Janury 28, 2014… when the body of the 58 year old was found hanging in his London flat from a dog leash tied to the top of a door. He had just commited suicide..

    As we reported at the time, financial papers had been strewn about the scene of his suicide, and on a dog bed near the body were a number of notes to family and friends. One was addressed to Deutsche Bank CEO Anshu Jain, with an apology. That note offered no clue as to the reason he was sorry.

    And this is where the story gets even more fascinating: the abovementioned Michele Faissola, who was instrumental in helping Monte Paschi arrange its various derivative deals with Deutsche Bank, was the first to arrive at the gruesome scene of Broeksmit’s suicide in 2014.

     When he arrived at the South Kensington home, he immediately began going through the bank papers and read the suicide notes.


    The west London home of William S. Broeksmit where he was found dead in 2014

    We know all this because it was recounted to us by Val Broeksmit, the son of the deceased high-ranking Deutsche Bank banker. Val also who provided us the police report of David Rossi’s death, and various other key notes as he has tried to piece together over the years how and why his father committed suicide.

    While there is no evidence Faissola was involved in any misconduct related to Broeksmit’s death, Val wonders what, if anything, Faissola had been searching for.

    So do we.

    The reason why this story, which has seen bits and pieces float around over the past 3 years, is reemerging is because now that both the insolvent Monte Paschi is in the news for its ongoing third bailout, not to mention the significantly troubled Deutsche Bank is also a daily source of market stress, the fact that two bankers who were intimately familiar and certainly involved in many of the transactions between Deutsche Bank and Monte Paschi, and which have been deemed illegal and are being prosecuted by the Italian state, have committed suicide, is worth bringing to the public’s attention.

    * * *

    What is fascinating, is not only how interconnected the fates of Deutsche Bank and Monte Paschi have been over the years – two banks that have each seen a dramatic, high ranking suicide in recent years – but also how far the political process has pushed to preserving a cone of silence surrounding these events: recall that on September 1, Milan prosecutors filed a request to shelve a probe for alleged market manipulation and false accounting against the chief executive of Monte Paschi, Fabrizio Viola, and the bank’s former chairman, Alesandro Profumo; a probe that was launched just several weeks prior. As noted above, Viola quietly resigned from his post shortly after the announcement.

    Most importantly, while investigators on both the UK and Italian side have been quick to dismiss the banker deaths as open and shut cases of suicide, courtesy of Broeksmit’s son we have access to certain documents which we are confident will reveal not just how deep the rabbit hole truly goes, linking the oldest and biggest European banks through two still largely unexplained suicides, but also what is hidden behind Deutsche Bank’s mirrored facade.

  • Leaked Emails Reveals Clinton Campaign Plotted Supreme Court Threat Over Obamacare

    Remember back in 2012 when the Supreme Court narrowly upheld the Obamacare mandate with a 5-4 decision but only after Judge Roberts, a Bush appointee, seemingly parted with his conservative counterparts on the bench to effectively, single-handedly preserve perhaps the most destructive piece of legislation in American history (if not, we wrote about it here)?  Many people were shocked by Judge Roberts’ decision and subsequently alleged that it was driven more by politics than his interpretation of the Constitution. 

    Turns out those people were proven right today as a new Podesta email confirms that the Obama administration applied political pressure on Roberts to sway his decision:  “it was pretty critical that the President threw the gauntlet down last time on the Court…that was vital to scaring Roberts off.”

    While it’s fairly disturbing that the Clinton team would flippantly admit such things, what’s even worse is that they plotted to use Obama’s same strategy of applying political pressure on the Supreme Court in 2015 to overturn “King v Burwell” which also threatened Obamacare’s future.

    The email below from Neera Tanden, clearly shows Clinton staffers colluding with the President of the Center for American Progress on a scheme to apply political pressure on the Supreme Court to overturn the challenge. 

    Supreme Court

     

    Subsequently, both Palmieri, Clinton’s Communications Director, and Fallon, Press Secretary, agreed with the strategy. 

    Supreme Court

    Supreme Court

     

    Of course, the Supreme Court ultimately ruled in favor of the Obama administration with Justice Roberts writing the majority opinion.  Meanwhile, the late Justice Scalia wrote the dissenting opinion in which he said the following:

    Words no longer have meaning if an Exchange that is not established by a State is “established by the State.” It is hard to come up with a clearer way to limit tax credits to state Exchanges than to use the words “established by the State.” And it is hard to come up with a reason to include the words “by the State” other than the purpose of limiting credits to state Exchanges.”

    In hindsight, aren’t we all so lucky that Justice Roberts sold his soul to uphold such an amazing piece of legislation?  For his efforts, we’ve all received the benefits of worse healthcare coverage for twice the price.

  • Obama To Decide Friday On Military Action In Syria

    Two weeks ago when the US broke off bilateral relations with Russia over the ongoing Syrian proxy war, we reported that as part of America’s “next steps” would be a discussion on military options. As Reuters reported then, the “discussions were being held at “staff level,” and have yet to produce any recommendations to President Barack Obama, who has resisted ordering military action against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the country’s multi-sided civil war. “The president has asked all of the agencies to put forward options, some familiar, some new, that we are very actively reviewing,” Blinken said. “When we are able to work through these in the days ahead we’ll have an opportunity to come back and talk about them in detail.”

    Fast forward to today, when as Reuters once again reports, the time has come for the US to make a decision: on Friday President Barack Obama and his top foreign policy advisers are expected to meet to consider their military and other options in Syria as Syrian and Russian aircraft continue to pummel Aleppo and other targets.

    The tensions here are well known: some of the more hawkish “top officials” told Reuters that the United States must act more forcefully in Syria or “risk losing what influence it still has over moderate rebels and its Arab, Kurdish and Turkish allies in the fight against Islamic State.” Naturally, this means that one set of options includes direct U.S. military action such as air strikes on Syrian military bases, munitions depots or radar and anti-aircraft bases.

    That is also the scenario which General Joseph Dunford warned may lead to war with Russia. Indeed, the quoted said one danger of such action is that Russian and Syrian forces are often co-mingled, “raising the possibility of a direct confrontation with Russia that Obama has been at pains to avoid.” This is also known as the “world war” scenario.

    Luckily, there are options.

    One alternative, U.S. officials said, is allowing allies to provide U.S.-vetted rebels with more sophisticated weapons, although not shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles, “which Washington fears could be used against Western airliners.” Like, for example, what happened above the Donestk region during the peak of the Ukraine proxy war in 2014.

    As Reuters adds, Friday’s planned meeting is the latest in a long series of internal debates – which have so far achieved nothing but escalate the situation which fast approaches a point of no return – about what, if anything, to do to end a 5-1/2 year civil war that has killed at least 300,000 people and displaced half the country’s population. According to insiders, the ultimate aim of any new action could be to “bolster the battered moderate rebels so they can weather what is now widely seen as the inevitable fall of rebel-held eastern Aleppo to the forces of Russian- and Iranian-backed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.” The question is whether it was also “bolster” al-Qaeda linked jihadists whom the US has been supporting for the past several months as a result of the perverse merger of “moderate” rebel forces in Syria.

    Apparently, there is also an element of pride:

    It also might temper a sense of betrayal among moderate rebels who feel Obama encouraged their uprising by calling for Assad to go but then abandoned them, failing even to enforce his own “red line” against Syria’s use of chemical weapons.

     

    This, in turn, might deter them from migrating to Islamist groups such as the Nusra Front, which the United States regards as Syria’s al Qaeda branch. The group in July said it had cut ties to al Qaeda and changed its name to Jabhat Fatah al-Sham.

    In other words, having started the proxy war in Syria, with every passing day that Obama fails to resolve it – while ideally avoid a world war with Russia – is a day that more and more “moderate rebels” are likely to openly “migrate” to jihadist extremists, with all of the latest US military equipment so generously provided to them by the administration.

    There is also hope that just like in 2013, Kerry and Lavrov will somehow cobble together another last minute peace agreement. The U.S. and Russian foreign ministers will meet in Lausanne, Switzerland on Saturday to resume their failed effort to find a diplomatic solution, possibly joined by their counterparts from Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Iran, but U.S. officials were said to have voiced little hope for success.

    Complicating matters, however, is that as we reported this morning, the US is now officially engaged in another regional conflict, after US warships fired ballistic missiles targeting Yemen radar stations in proximity to the critical Bab al-Mandab Straight.

    Earlier Thursday the United States launched cruise missiles at three coastal radar sites in areas of Yemen controlled by Iran-aligned Houthi forces, retaliating after failed missile attacks this week on a U.S. Navy destroyer, U.S. officials said.

    There is also the question of what to do in Iraq, where officials are debating whether government forces will need more U.S. support both during and after their campaign to retake Mosul, Islamic State’s de facto capital in the country. Some officials argue the Iraqis now cannot retake the city without significant help from Kurdish peshmerga forces, as well as Sunni and Shi’ite militias, and that their participation could trigger religious and ethnic conflict in the city.

    * * *

    For now, the best news is that according to Reuters, US officials said they consider it unlikely that Obama will order U.S. air strikes on Syrian government targets, and they stressed that he may not make any decisions at the planned meeting of his National Security Council. However, that will only be the case should the US not be further humiliated in Syria, and – of course – all bets are off if and when Obama is replaced, especially if his successor is a well-known warmonger, directly and indirectly responsible for much of the unstable geopolitical situation across most of the region.
     

  • Global Elites Are Getting Ready To Blame You For The Coming Financial Crash

    Submitted by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    Those people that have any doubts about where the narrative is headed for global economic stability simply have not been paying attention lately.

    As I pointed out in my pre-Brexit referendum article, Brexit: Global Trigger Event, Fake Out Or Something Else?, the story being scripted by the globalists is one of the “failures and crimes" of conservative movements. I predicted that the Brexit would pass based on this language used by international financiers and elites leading up to the vote.

    The vast majority of analysts in the mainstream and in the alternative media refused to acknowledge the possibility that a successful Brexit actually works in FAVOR of the globalists, because it provides them a perfect scapegoat for a financial crisis that has been broiling for years and is now ready to burst into flames. I find still that many people will not dare to consider the idea that a successful conservative resurgence is actually part of the plan for globalist institutions. Many argue that the elites just don’t have that kind of pervasive control over the system, or that I am attributing “too much power and ability” to them.

    I find this argument rather naive but also interesting, because many of the people that claim the elites do not have such influence were also the same people that argued before the Brexit that the elites would “never allow” the U.K. referendum to pass. So, do they have extensive influence, or don’t they?  This kind of selective blindness to the game being played prevents a whole host of otherwise intelligent people from grasping reality.

    These folks need to finally admit to themselves that they were half right; the globalists would not allow the passage of the Brexit, UNLESS, a successful Brexit actually works in their favor.

    In my post-Brexit analysis I said that the meme of bumbling and destructive conservatives and “populists” would continue into the U.S. election, and so far it would seem this is exactly the case. In numerous mainstream articles globalists have been openly telling us exactly what is about to happen.

    I find that the same naivety that developed during the Brexit campaign has also developed around the Trump campaign. Too many in the liberty movement will not entertain the idea that a Trump win is in the cards. Yet, the elites are using the same language in reference to the Trump campaign that they used before and after the Brexit.

    Bloomberg’s latest report on the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank showcase numerous warnings by the elites:

    The global economy has benefited tremendously from globalization and technological change,” the IMF’s top advisory panel said in a communique released on Saturday after meeting in Washington. “However, the outlook is increasingly threatened by inward-looking policies, including protectionism, and stalled reforms.”

     

    The IMF warned in its latest economic outlook that rising political tensions over open markets and free trade could undermine a recovery already lacking a growth engine.”

     

    In a rebuke to those advocating a turn away from trade, the members of the IMF panel redoubled their commitment to “maintain economic openness and reinvigorate global trade as a critical means to boost global growth.”

    Barron’s reiterates the predictive programming, insinuating that a loss of faith in globalism and the financial elites will lead to disaster.

    Leaders gathered at the International Monetary Fund/World Bank annual meeting didn’t mention Donald Trump by name this week, but they warned the anti-trade and populist movements fueling his presidential campaign, as well as Brexit, could further slow already anemic economic growth.”

     

    “…Populist movements have not fallen on deaf ears, with German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble noting during a panel on the global economy that: “More and more, people don’t trust their elites. They don’t trust their economic leaders, and they don’t trust their political leaders.”

    Globalists are telling us what is about to happen.

    I continue to hold to the position I always have — that Donald Trump is going to be ALLOWED into the White House, and that this will be a prelude to economic crisis. The stage is being set for a grand finale to our ongoing financial collapse. The great villain behind the whole disaster will be revealed, and we will be told that the villain is us.

    By “us" I mean conservative movements in general, though, the mainstream media and globalist spokesmen refer to us more often today as “populists", or maybe "deplorables". Those people who think this brand of “conspiracy” is too far fetched because it requires an inordinate level of political and economic control have not really thought the situation through.

    Fact – central banks and international financiers have already created the conditions necessary for economic instability. Fact – these same elites have staved off a larger or more immediate collapse over the past eight years through the use of fiat stimulus measures, market rigging and the manipulation of public perception. Fact – the elites can easily initiate an immediate collapse if they wish by simply refusing to prop up the system any longer. Fact – the elites have showcased the ability to stifle conservative movements in the past through interference and co-option (Tea Party, anyone?). Fact – they can also give conservative movements an opportunity to gain momentum by removing some of this interference.

    The truth is, at this point globalists do not need expansive or intricate control over the system in order to cause a crisis or to place conservatives in the historical hot seat. All they have to do is step aside and let the train wreck happen. And, of course, they have to position themselves as prognosticators and saviors once the crisis event occurs.

    The argument also arises that “people would never take the bait;” that the masses will not be fooled by the banking cabal into scapegoating conservatives for a crash the elites created. One can only hope. However, possession is nine-tenths of the law in the minds of many, and the mainstream has already conditioned the public with the notion that the mere presence of anti-globalist conservatives in positions of political authority will negatively affect market psychology.

    Of course, this notion relies on the admission of certain truths. For example, the globalists would have to admit that the fiscal system they have held together is so tenuous and fraudulent that it depends solely on false public perception and false investor assumptions. In order to blame conservatives for the destruction of the global economy, the elites will have to tell the truth about the frailty of the system before they can lie about who broke it.

    This may not matter. When people are facing national or international calamity with the potential to hurt them personally, critical thinking and logic tend to go out the window.

    There is also the power of distraction to occupy the minds of the masses while a crisis is taking shape, and what could be more distracting than the Trump vs. Clinton U.S. election? I have to say, I don’t think I have ever witnessed or seen a historical accounting of an election more psychotic than the election of 2016. It is truly the most divisive event in over a century, and this is why I consistently compare it to the Brexit referendum.

    The tone is very much the same, with citizens on the Left side of the political spectrum being lured into rallying in support of globalism as if it is a prerequisite to peace and harmony, while citizens on the Right side of the spectrum are portrayed as knuckle dragging isolationist barbarians hell-bent on urinating in the punch bowl and ruining everyone’s global prosperity party.

    Brexit supporters were painted as older, selfish, potentially racist and out of touch with the changing times. Brexit opponents were painted as young, educated and victimized by older generations taking away the supposed future benefits of globalism.

    Trump supporters are labeled as older, mostly white-centric, uneducated and fearful of the changing times. They just “don’t get” that it’s 2016. Trump opponents are elevated as the academic and worldly class battling to prevent another Hitler.

    During the lead up to the U.K. referendum, polls indicated a wide margin in favor of the anti-Brexit crowd and the assumption by almost everyone was that the Brexit would fail.

    The lead up to the U.S. election is also rife with polls indicating in most cases a margin of victory for Clinton over Trump. Of course, only a complete idiot would take polling numbers seriously in light of what happened during the Brexit.

    The Brexit campaign witnessed what appeared to some to be an unrecoverable black swan event – the killing of British MP Jo Cox. Almost everyone claimed that the murder of Cox by an apparently pro-Brexit assailant meant that the Brexit was doomed (I actually argued that the murder would be forgotten in a week and that the Brexit would pass anyway).

    The Trump campaign has witnessed its own kind of “black swan” event with the release of recordings from eleven years ago in which Trump is heard making “lewd remarks” about women. It is surprising to me how many conservatives (let alone liberals) have been declaring Trump’s candidacy effectively “over” due to the scandal. These people are dupes.

    Once again, I argue that the Trump tapes will be forgotten in a week and that they have no bearing whatsoever on the election. They are nothing more than bread and circus. Beyond the fact that really, almost no one cares what Trump said a decade ago, I argue that this election has already been decided. I argue that the globalists want Trump in office, just as they wanted the passage of the Brexit. I argue that they need conservative movements to feel as though we have won, so that they can pull the rug out from under us in the near future. I argue that we are being set up.

    Again, the elites are openly telling us what is about to happen. They are telling us that if “populists” (conservatives) gain political power, the system will effectively collapse. To what extent is hard to say, but let’s assume that the situation will be ugly enough to influence the masses to reconsider the ideal of globalism as a possible solution. The elites are fond of the Hegelian dialectic and the philosophy of “order out of chaos,” after all.

    The only way to counter this developing lie is for liberty champions to first accept the idea that our political victories might be ultimately meaningless and that we are being allowed to take charge of a ship that is already sinking. Only then can we distance ourselves from an exponential fiscal disaster by distancing ourselves from the narrative.

    Perhaps I am wrong, and in November we see a dismal Trump performance and a Clinton victory. But if we see a “surprise” Trump election win, just as we saw a surprise Brexit win, then it may be time to consider that the surface of this situation is not what it appears.

  • Trump Attacks FBI & DOJ For Corrupt Hillary Investigation – “It Was Crime At The Highest Level”

    After what clearly seems like a coordinated, multi-day attack by the mainstream media on the Trump campaign, culminating with the most recent New York Times article alleging sexual assault, the campaign has officially opened up new fronts in its war on the Washington establishment.  After attacking members of his own party, mostly Paul Ryan, earlier in the week for withdrawing their support, Trump has now directed his wrath towards the FBI and DOJ calling for an “investigation into the investigation” conducted by the FBI of Hillary’s private server. 

    The latest Trump “hit”, as the Hillary team referred to them in the Podesta emails, started at Sunday’s debate when Anderson Cooper, in the first question of the night, manipulated Trump’s now infamous “lewd” comments to Billy Bush to imply they were an admission to actual sexual assault.  As can be seen in the video below, Trump acknowledged the comments and apologized for them, but Cooper refused to moved on until he forced Trump to respond to a completely fabricated allegation that his words were necessarily an admission of actual sexual assault.  

    Then, not terribly surprisingly, within a couple of days, the New York Times released a follow-up “hit” in which they revealed women who claim to have been sexually assaulted by the Donald a couple of decades ago.  And, of course, Clinton spokeswoman, Jennifer Palmieri, immediately called out Trump for “lying” about the scandal at the debate.

     

    But Trump has used the coordinated “hits” against his campaign to declare an all out war on everyone from the mainstream media to Congressional leaders, on both sides of the aisle, and now the FBI and DOJ.  Per the Wall Street Journal, in statements at a rally in Florida yesterday, Trump furiously alleged corruption in the FBI’s investigation of Hillary’s email server describing it as “crime at the highest level.”

    Mr. Trump on Wednesday condemned the Washington establishment for letting Mrs. Clinton off without punishment for her use of a private email server while she was secretary of state.

     

    “I am so disappointed in Congress, and I mean both sides,” he said at a rally here. “What do you do when you hand it over to the FBI and the Justice Department and that’s the end of it?”

     

    The GOP nominee complained that Mr. Ryan didn’t congratulate him for his Sunday performance in the debate against Mrs. Clinton. “Wouldn’t you think that Paul Ryan would call and say, ‘Good going…Let’s go, Don, let’s beat that crook,’” he said. “There’s a whole sinister deal going on.”

     

    He repeated and built upon his threat to name a special prosecutor to investigate Mrs. Clinton if he becomes president, suggesting he would also probe the FBI and Justice Department for failing to bring charges against her for her handling of classified material and use of a private computer for email while secretary of state. “We have to investigate the investigation,” he said. “It was crime at the highest level.”

     

    Faulting Congress for not pressing more on the issue, he portrayed Capitol Hill and the political parties as a bipartisan back-scratching club that allows ethics problems to slide: “Did they make a deal where everybody protects each other in Washington?”

    Trump also directed his wrath at the “fraudulent” media which he called out for giving Hillary an advance look at debate questions and failing to report on the WikiLeaks emails.

     

    Meanwhile Trump also launched a new media ad blitz that will target key swing states with ads like the following.

     

    So buckle up folks, something tells us the next three weeks are going to be surreal.

  • THe YouNG DouCHe…

    DOUCHE

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Today’s News 13th October 2016

  • French Prime Minister Argues For United States Of Europe, With Its Own Military

    Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    French Prime Minister Manuel Valls, wants to transform the EU into the United States of Europe, complete with its own European defense force.

    Curiously, Valls specifically says “We cannot build a United States of Europe”, but that is precisely what he wants to do.

    “Member states have a choice: give up on the EU or transform it,” writes Manuel Valls.

    Redefining Europe

    Please consider Brexit Vote Pushes Europe to Redefine Itself, by Manuel Valls.

    Let us face facts: the European project is in trouble. With the growing threat of terrorism, the refugee crisis, lacklustre economic growth and unemployment, the turmoil in Europe is unprecedented. Added to these, the Brexit vote deeply questioned the very meaning of Europe.

     

    The other 27 member states of the EU have two options (this was the subject of my debate with Jean-Claude Juncker at the Jacques Delors Institute last week): either we give up and leave the European project to a slow but certain death, or we transform the EU.

     

    Reasserting our European identity also means coming to terms with the fact that there are borders — that Europe starts and stops somewhere.

     

    Too often the EU has appeared to be preoccupied with unnecessary regulation. Transforming Europe also means that member states must henceforth focus on the essentials, primarily defence and security — in Europe, of course, but also in the neighbouring region of the Middle East. The French army is already doing more than its fair share: it cannot remain the de facto European army forever. France expects Europe to implement a common security strategy, with fully operational border guards and an electronic system for travel authorisation of the kind already operated by the US.

     

    Finally, transforming Europe means making a clear choice to foster growth that does not only depend on the European Central Bank’s monetary policy. Europe must finance new projects and invest in digital and environmental innovation more than it does already.

     

    These sectors must be enabled to grow and to face competition from countries that have no scruples about protecting their own industries. The time for naivety is over.

     

    For this reason, the negotiations over the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) cannot carry on as they have been. If the EU is to grant market access to American companies, there has to be reciprocity.

     

    The European market must not be a social jungle, where people are set against one another. Nor can it be a tax jungle. It is unacceptable for multi­national companies to do everything in their power to avoid paying tax in the countries in which they make profits. The recent ruling of the European Commission on Apple’s tax affairs was courageous and welcome, therefore. At the same time, member states must progress towards common European tax rates.

     

    We cannot build a “United States of Europe”— each country has its own history, language and culture. But we can construct a sovereign Europe, a federation of nation states, strong and unashamed. We will not be the generation that buries the European project. We owe it to our young, who, for the most part, remain deeply attached to the European project. So are we.

    Valls Wish List

    1. Higher taxes
    2. Unified tax rates (striking at Ireland and Brexit)
    3. More tariff protections
    4. More government spending, especially on environmental projects
    5. A Sovereign Europe
    6. A Federation of Nation states (all having to do the same thing at the same time)
    7. Common defense system and an European army
    8. Fully operational border guards

    Hey, let’s just do all that and not call it the United States of Europe.

    The main thing Valls got correct was “Too often the EU has appeared to be preoccupied with unnecessary regulation.”

    Ironically, Valls proposed regulation in at least a half-dozen areas. and it won’t stop there.

    What about agricultural tariffs to preserve the French way of Life? Valls wants to keep those for the sole benefit of French farmers at the expense of everyone else.

    Great Nannycrat Transformation

    Brexit happened precisely because the EU has been progressing along the lines Valls wants. Citizens are fed up in the UK, Hungary, Poland, Italy, Austria, Greece, Portugal and France, over various things.

    Politicians like Beppe Grillo and the five-star movement in Italy, Marine Le Pen’s National Front in France, and Victor Orban in Hungary feed off nonsense like Valls presented.

    In Austria, anti-immigration presidential candidate Norbert Hofer of the Freedom Party (FPOe) is ahead in polls. The election, scheduled for October 2 was rescheduled to December 4 due to problems with glue.

    austria-election3

    Problems with Glue

    There are problems with glue all right.

    Ireland is upset over taxes, the UK, Hungary, France, and Austria over immigration, Greece and Portugal over austerity, and Italy questions the Euro itself.

    Valls did not address inane work rules in France, Greece, and Italy. Will those go away with more glue?

    Instead of addressing obvious productivity issues, Valls concludes the EU needs an army.

    The entire EU project is at risk of becoming unglued precisely because politicians like Valls, EC President Jean-Claude Juncker, and German chancellor Angela Merkel want to force more glue and more regulations into the system when the eurozone cannot remotely agree on a banking union, bailouts, a currency union, or a fiscal union.

  • Is A Short Squeeze Coming From This?

    By Chris at www.CapitalistExploits.at

    Market dislocations occur when financial markets, operating under stressful conditions, experience large widespread asset mispricing.

    Welcome to this week’s edition of “World Out Of Whack” where every Wednesday we take time out of our day to laugh, poke fun at and present to you absurdity in global financial markets in all it’s glorious insanity.

    kramer

    While we enjoy a good laugh, the truth is that the first step to protecting ourselves from losses is to protect ourselves from ignorance. Think of the “World Out Of Whack” as your double thick armour plated side impact protection system in a financial world littered with drunk drivers.

    Selfishly we also know that the biggest (and often the fastest) returns come from asymmetric market moves. But, in order to identify these moves we must first identify where they live.

    Occasionally we find opportunities where we can buy (or sell) assets for mere cents on the dollar – because, after all, we are capitalists.

    In this week’s edition of the WOW we’re covering volatility ETPs (Exchange Traded Products)

    Before we get into what exactly is Out Of Whack with volatility linked ETPs let’s cover what the heck a volatility ETP actually is.

    What are Volatility ETPs?

    Since it’s probably the most commonly known animal in the zoo we’ll turn to the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) for an explanation:

    The iPath® S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures™ ETN is designed to provide investors with exposure to the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures™ Index Total Return. The S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures™ Index Total Return (the “Index”) is designed to provide access to equity market volatility through CBOE Volatility Index® futures. The Index offers exposure to a daily rolling long position in the first and second month VIX futures contracts and reflects the implied volatility of the S&P 500® at various points along the volatility forward curve.

    In English now:

    Any ETP including VXX is a derivative of some underlying asset so let’s take a look at the underlying “asset”. In this case it’s the VIX futures. The VIX itself is actually a calculation based on the implied volatility of a basket of options on the S&P 500. Included in the calculations are options which are about to expire and those with 30 days to expiry. The net result is what amounts to a best guess as to what the market believes is in store for the next 30 days trading.

    Attentive readers will realise that the VIX is therefore not the actual volatility of the S&P 500, but rather a forward looking best guess of what it is. For example it’s possible for actual volatility of the S&P to be low while traders are freaking out about something they see in a months time which would send VIX higher.

    You can buy futures contracts on the price of VIX and they’re actively traded but like any futures contract you’re betting on a where a price lands on a future date, in this case 30 days out.

    Volatility ETFs are particularly strange animals since you’re buying a derivative (ETF) on a derivative (the futures contract) which itself is based on a derivative (the implied volatility of options) and those options themselves of course are derivatives which themselves are based on the S&P 500.

    So what’s going on with Volatility ETPs?

    Volatility ETPs can provide investors the ability to be bullish or bearish. In other words those expecting low volatility can buy something like the ProShares S&P 500 Low Volatility Portfolio (SPLV) and those expecting high volatility can buy something like the VXX mentioned above.

    It’s one thing that investors are expecting continued complacency and thus buying the low volatility ETPs but there is a perverse craziness that makes it all the more dangerous (more on that in a moment).

    To explain why there has been such a rise in the popularity of low volatility ETPs just imagine driving the Eyre highway which takes you across the Nullarbor plain in Australia. For those unfamiliar with what this is, it’s a 1,675km stretch of road that is pretty much dead straight and has nothing to see – nada. It is I assure you, more boring than watching grass grow and takes 2 days at high speed.

    nullarbor1

    The thing is you land up clocking speeds that would get you arrested anyplace else, in large part because it doesn’t feel like you’re going that fast and certainly doesn’t feel like you’re getting anywhere at all. It’s why when accidents happen on the Eyre highway they’re more often than not fatal.

    Every 50km or so the road kinks a little and so one minute you’re hurtling along and the next thing you know, the roads not there anymore and you’ve got to control a ton of metal and rubber screaming through the outback at 180km/h. The rental car guy I spoke to told me that about 10% of all his cars are never resold, they’re rolled.

    What does this have to do with volatility ETF’s?

    Everything.

    Long periods of complacency are often interspersed with brief but frightening jolts of “holy sh** where did that come from?

    Betting on increased volatility has been a losing bet. Below is the VXX in blue (long Volatility) vs SPLV in red (Short Volatility). 

    vol

    VXX in Blue and SPLV in green/red

    Now there are structural reasons why VXX is such a pig of a long term ETF to buy, and I’ll cover why that is in a future article but the point I want to make is that going short volatility has been a winning trade.

    I’ve written about this so much that my fingers are going to bleed, more recently when discussing how bonds no longer trade based on yield but based on a future price but the hunt for yield has created some truly amazing set of circumstances and this brings us squarely to low volatility ETF’s.

    Enter the beast – When the Cure Becomes the Poison

    As reported recently by Market Watch:

    “More than $50 billion has poured into low-volatility indexed exchange-traded funds over the past five years or so, in the wake of the 2008-09 market meltdown. There are now 14 “lo-vol” ETFs with assets exceeding $100 million each, and many more with less. Whenever the market hits a pothole, these ETFs enjoy a bump-up in assets.”

    screen-shot-2016-10-12-at-2-16-26-pm

    Now this is where the perverse part comes in. Bear with me on this – it’s important.

    Every time you sell volatility you get paid by the counter-party who is typically hedging the volatility (going long) of a particular position and paying you for the privilege. This is not unlike paying a home insurance premium where the insurer takes the ultimate risk of your house burning down and you pay them for the privelage. The difference however between selling volatility in order to protect against an underlying position and selling volatility in order to receive the yield created is enormous. And yet this is the game being played.

    The central banks have managed to create a sense of calm in the markets exhibited by record lows in volatility and for their part Joe Sixpack investor has used linear thinking extrapolated well into the future assuming ever greater risk ignoring market cycles and extremes at their peril.

    ————————————–

    Kyle Bass Gold

    ————————————–

    Two things are happening here:

    1. When the proverbial house burns down the insurance company (ETF) can’t cover. It’s all in and was never designed to protect holders for the inevitable reversal.
    2. Investors have been selling volatility in order to achieve yield and thus treating these structured products like bonds, when they are in fact similar to bonds in the same way that the iPhone is similar to a water buffalo.

    Traders are aggressively hunting for yield and finding it in selling volatility. This works wonderfully… until it doesn’t.

    Remember equities are something like 7x more volatile than bonds (depending on what you’re looking at) and these ETPs are inherently more volatile than the underlying equities upon which they’re ultimately priced. Treating them like bonds and buying them for yield is quite simply INSANE.

    What’s interesting is that the VIX is trading near all time lows at the same time that short interest on low volatility ETFs is at record highs.

    While I’m not predicting it though we are due a recession purely based on the business cycle, a market crash would almost certainly wipe out the entire low volatility ETP complex, and a market correction (overdue) will see a scramble amongst those who’ve been treating an ETP as a bond. It could be more entertaining to watch than the current clown show US presidential race.

    The question is:

    Wow Poll 12 October 2016Cast your vote here and also see what others think

    Know anyone that might enjoy this? Please share this with them.

    Investing and protecting our capital in a world which is enjoying the most severe distortions of any period in mans recorded history means that a different approach is required. And traditional portfolio management fails miserably to accomplish this.

    And so our goal here is simple: protecting the majority of our wealth from the inevitable consequences of absurdity, while finding the most asymmetric investment opportunities for our capital. Ironically, such opportunities are a result of the actions which have landed the world in such trouble to begin with.

    – Chris

    “To buy when others are despondently selling and sell when others are greedily buying requires the greatest fortitude and pays the greatest reward.” — Sir John Templeton

    ————————————–

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    get access to free subscriber-only content here.

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  • German Foreign Minister and Former MI6 Boss: US-Russia Tensions Now More Dangerous than During the Cold War

    Preface: I will add quotes from U.S. intelligence officials and Russia experts as I receive them.

    Germany’s Foreign Minister – Frank-Walter Steinmeier – wrote earlier this month that tension between the US and Russia is worse than during the Cold War:

    It’s a fallacy to think that this is like the Cold War. The current times are different and more dangerous.

    The head of Britain’s intelligence service, MI6 – Sir John Sawyers – agreed yesterday:

    We are moving into an era that is as dangerous, if not more dangerous, as the cold war because we do not have that focus on a strategic relationship between Moscow and Washington.

    This is even more dramatic when you realize that the U.S. and Soviets came within seconds of all-out nuclear war on numerous occasions during the Cold War. And only the courage of U.S. and Soviet individuals to say no when their superiors told them to fire nuclear weapons – in the face of mistaken readings – saved the planet from nuclear war.

    And many experts warn that we’re drifting towards nuclear war today.  Indeed, former U.S. Secretary of Defense William Perry said in February:

    The likelihood of a nuclear catastrophe today is greater than it was during the Cold War.

    Postscript: The American government and mainstream media cast all of the blame on Russia. But many top U.S. diplomats and intelligence officials disagree (and see this).

  • Stocks, USDJPY Plunge After Dismal China Trade Data

    Following an unexpected plunge in China's trade balance (to 6 month lows), US equity futures and USDJPY are tumbling as Yuan turmoil ripples through markets once again.

    Misses across the board in China trade data…

    • China Yuan Exports -5.6% YoY (exp. +2.5%)
    • China Yuan Imports +2.2% YoY (exp. +5.5%)
    • China Trade Balance 278.35bn (exp. 364.5bn)
    • China USD Exports -10.0% (exp. -3.3%)
    • China USD Imports -1.9% (exp. +0.6%)
    • China USD Trade balance 41.99bn (exp. 53.00bn)

    *CHINA TRADE STILL FACES GREAT UNCERTAINTIES: CUSTOMS' HUANG

     

    Sparked chaotic trading in Yuan as offshore selling pressure accelerated post Golden Week…

     

    And spread to USDJPY and implicity US equity futures…

     

    USDJPY dropped a whole big figure erasing the gains of the day…

  • Thinking About Voting? Read This First

    Submitted by Dan Sanchez via TheAntiMedia.org,

    Colin Kaepernick has been abstaining from standing for the national anthem. Self-styled patriots have been losing their minds over it. That is because they are true believers in a cult. The cult is the State.

    All states are cults: religions. And like all religions, states have sacraments, including holy rituals. The national anthem is one of the holy ritual sacraments of the cult of the American State. Those fully initiated and indoctrinated in that cult have been programmed to go into attack mode when divergent cult members (heretics) fail to observe such sacraments, like the national anthem or the pledge of allegiance to the holy pole cloth. Such peer pressure is how cults maintain their numbers.

    Voting is another one of those sacramental rituals. As with the national anthem and pledge of allegiance, true believers are aghast when you advocate abstention from voting. School, which is our chief initiation into the State cult, thoroughly and universally indoctrinates its initiates into the sacrament of voting and democracy. We’ve all been brainwashed from the time we were tiny children into the holy myth of democracy: that democracy is what makes us special, what makes America exceptional; that patriots suffered and died for democracy, from the Suffragettes to the Civil Rights movement, from the Revolution to the Civil War to World War II to the War on Terror; that through voting we are empowered to fight for what’s right, to make our country, our very lives, better. You can see how important this sacrament is to the State cult from all of the voting propaganda pushed by the government and the establishment media.

    But here’s the thing. Like all mystic rituals, the ritual of voting is based on superstition. Like an incantation or a rain dance, it is based on the superstition that great good can come of a mere gesture. Just as the rain dancer thinks he can summon rain that will save his crops, the voter thinks he can summon reform that will save his country.

    But again, it’s a superstition. The individual act of voting is futile. Elections are virtually never decided by a single vote. You’re more likely to die on the way to the polling place than affect the outcome of an election. You know it’s futile. You know that in previous elections the outcome wouldn’t have been any different had you not voted. You know the same will be true for future elections.

    Yes, in aggregate voting makes a difference. But that’s a different question. When you’re deciding whether to vote, you’re making an individual decision, not an aggregate one.

    Perhaps you think that by voting at least you’re doing your small part, making your small contribution. But contributing toward what?

    Imagine a giant siege engine that takes millions of people to push. Imagine if millions of people together purposefully pushed the engine to run over a group of innocent people tied up on the ground. Did those people die accidentally or were they murdered? If they were murdered, they were murdered by somebody. So by whom? The millions who pushed, of course. Even though any given individual’s decision whether to push or not didn’t make a difference one way or the other, every individual who pushed bears as much guilt as anybody else who pushed. Such an action is non-decisive, yet culpable at the same time.

    Now imagine if there were two groups of tied-up victims. Millions are pushing the siege engine to the left, trying to steer it away from Group A and toward Group B. Millions of others are pushing to the right, away from Group B and toward Group A. One side prevails, and Group B is crushed to death. These helpless victims were murdered, just as much as the victims in the previous scenario were. By whom? By the millions who pushed the engine in their direction. This is true, even if their primary goal for pushing in that direction was to save the lives of Group A.

    That’s effectively what you’re doing when you throw your weight behind a candidate or behind most forms of legislation. Candidates are package deals. Any candidate will violate the rights of some, even if they respect or defend the rights of others.

    Objectors say it’s about going in the general right direction, making choices out of which the good outweighs the bad, that do a net amount of good, that is good “on balance.” But that is collectivist speak. There is no “good on balance” for the people whose lives are run over by the candidate you empowered: for the child who is bombed by Hillary’s foreign policy, for the man who shot is by Trump’s police state, or the people Gary Johnson and Bill Weld kept in cages when they were governors.

    Objectors call it self-defense. But anti-war people should know better than anybody that collateral damage is never justified by self-defense. Objectors also say they are not responsible for the crimes committed by the office holders they voted for. But you can’t have it both ways. Either your vote doesn’t matter and it’s futile, or your vote matters and you’re culpable. (Although, again, I argue that you’re also culpable even though your vote is futile.)

    Don’t fall for the lie that you’re limited to choosing the lesser of multiple evils. You’re not limited to pushing the engine in the direction of one group of victims or another, or even toward a third smaller group of victims. You can abstain from pushing at all. You can refuse to lend your weight to the State. It’s true that a single act of abstention alone won’t make a difference as to whether people get run over, or regarding who gets run over. But neither will pushing in one direction or another: neither will voting. So you may as well choose the option that doesn’t even negligibly contribute to injustice.

    Not only do you have the option of merely abstaining from pushing, you can actually work to obstruct the siege engine, or to even dismantle it. Even the mere act of abstaining from voting contributes to the grand project of obstructing and dismantling the State. That is because voting is not just a ritual. It’s a power ritual.

    In a sense, all cult rituals are power rituals. They are about building and maintaining the power of the cult’s leadership, or the religion’s priesthood, over the lives of the cult’s rank and file members. Rituals do this by solidifying the adherents’ faith in the cult’s god. The cult’s priesthood poses as representatives and agents for this god. In the case of modern, secular political religions, the cult god is the State itself, which is an incoherent notion of the “general will” made manifest: a mythical abstraction that somehow acts for the good of the people. The government poses as the priesthood of this deity.

    Sacraments like the anthem, the pledge, and voting are so important to the government because they are what continually reinforce our faith in the State. Voting is particularly similar to holy communion. Voters line up at the polling booth to partake of divinity, believing that by participating in their own rule, they become one with the saving State they so adore.

    This participation is a form of buy-in. It causes the voter to identify with the government — the captives to identify with their captors. The State is the Stockholm Syndrome institutionalized. And the higher the turnout, the greater the perceived legitimacy granted to the government priesthood.

    Objectors say they are voting merely out of pragmatism and don’t intend to convey legitimacy to the government. But your intention is not the issue. The issue is the actual effect. It’s a simple fact that the government is able to use high turnout to convince its subjects that it represents the popular will — even to the subjects who voted for a losing candidate. It doesn’t matter that only individuals have wills, and so “the popular will” is an incoherent concept. What matters is that many people believe in it, and believe that high turnout signifies that the voice of the popular will has spoken.

    Just think: how convincing would be a democratic government’s claim to legitimacy with a 1% turnout vs. a 99% turnout, even if that 99% turnout was split down the middle? And what’s true of the extremes is also true of the gradations.

    Again, by voting you lend your weight to the State. You lend your weight to directing it toward certain victims. You also lend your weight to its sheer power and mass. By abstaining from voting, you dwindle the plausibility of the government’s claim to legitimacy and thus dwindle its power.

    Obstructing and dismantling such a huge thing as the State is also an effort that takes millions. So your contribution toward even that is negligible in the grand scheme of things. But at least you would be making a negligible contribution, to a noble effort, a moral project, and not to an immoral, pernicious system.

  • As China Pops Its Housing Bubble, Car Sales Soar 29%

    Late in September, we showed a viral surveillance video from inside new construction in east Hangzhou, which captured the sheer buying frenzy and panic, prompted by the new purchasing restrictions set to be unveiled just days later which would prevent people born outside Hangzhou from buying more than one property. 

    The crackdown on China’s latest housing bubble takes place as local home prices rose 9.2% in August from a year earlier, while in places like Shenzhen, prices soared almost 37%, in Beijing more than 23% and in Shanghai topped 30%. Such hefty price rises have been common all year in these so-called Tier 1 cities.

    Now that the widely telegraphed restrictions have kicked, as expected China’s housing market now appears set for a sharp pullback after several months of record pricing gains. As Reuters reports, a wave of restrictions imposed on housing markets in major Chinese cities last week have cut the area of new homes sold in places such as Beijing and Shenzhen by more than half. More than 20 cities have imposed measures, including higher mortgage downpayments, to cool hot property markets that have raised official alarm in Beijing and fresh concerns about China’s ballooning debt.

    Last week was a public holiday to mark National Day, traditionally a high season for property sales. Property agents said prices of new homes sold in the southern city of Shenzhen and in Beijing dropped 20 percent last week to entice buyers, compared with the previous week.

    Beijing and Wuxi, a city near Shanghai, had no new launches last week, a survey of 10 major cities by property researcher CREIS showed. But the area of residential space sold, based on developments launched previously, plunged 86 percent and 72 percent, respectively, compared to the previous week. CREIS said cities including Shanghai, Hangzhou and Wuhan, launched new developments but the area put on the market declined more than 50 percent and the area sold dropped 35 percent to 60 percent.

    “The new tightening measures are quite stringent,” said Alan Cheng, general manager of realtor Centaline Shenzhen. “It’s a blow to confidence and people are worried that prices will drop, so they are observing from the sidelines now.” The latest restrictions varied from city to city, but included higher mortgage downpayments for second and third-time home buyers, in a bid to stem the flow of cash into the red-hot property market.

    * * *

    However, since this is China, where one zombie asset bubble dies (briefly) only for another bubble to be (re)born, at the same time as the housing bubble is set to pop, the local population has turned its attention to cars.

    According to Bloomberg, Chinese passenger-vehicle sales surged a gargantuan 29% last month, led by small-car makers Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. and Mazda Motor Corp., as consumers seeking to beat an expiring tax cut helped clear inventory on dealer lots. Deliveries of sedans, minivans, sport utility and multipurpose vehicles to dealerships rose to 2.27 million units in September, the state-backed China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said Wednesday.

    Just like with the rush to buy housing ahead of purchasing restrictions, in the case of autos, consumers rushed to buy to take advantage of potentially expiring preferential tax terms. The government has so far stayed silent on whether it will extend a tax cut on purchases of vehicles with smaller engines beyond Dec. 31. As a result, sales could plunge next year if levies are allowed to double to 10 percent, said Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the China Passenger Car Association, a separate industry group. A slump in demand would worsen a capacity glut and dent profit margins, according to Steve Man, an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence.

    “The expiration of the current purchase tax cut is encouraging consumers to catch the last bus and bring forward their car purchases,” said Huang Xiaowei, an analyst with Shenzhen-based WAYS Consulting Co. “Dealers are preparing stocks for the surging demand at the year-end.”

    The scramble to buy cars has left many carmakers with little to no inventory. A gauge of vehicle inventory fell for a third straight month in September to the lowest level in two years, according to the China Automobile Dealer Association. Dealers of Japanese brands in August saw profits increase by 27% from a month earlier to 1,851 yuan per vehicle after scaling back discounts due to strong demand, according to WAYS Consulting.

    Mazda said its sales in China jumped 49 percent in September from a year earlier, led by models including the Axela compact, which qualifies for the tax cut. Geely raised its full-year sales target after September deliveries surged 82 percent from a year earlier.

    Even General Motors’ car sales, which had recently slowed in China, surged 16% to 343,773 units, with deliveries of Cadillac sedans increasing 63%. Great Wall Motor Co.’s sales rose 49 percent to 97,685 units, with SUV deliveries reaching 87,627 units.

    What happens should both the housing and car bubbles pop? Well, buy stocks (again) or (even more) bitcoin, because in China, where the total amount of bank deposit is in the mid-$20 trillion range, the bubbles never actually die, they just get recycled.

  • Meet The "Real" Deplorables

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    screen-shot-2016-10-10-at-4-23-45-pm

    Below are some excerpts from Michael Tracey’s latest article: The Real Deplorables.

    Enjoy.

    The real “deplorables” generally aren’t the people whom Hillary denounced as wholly “irredeemable,” or at whom economically secure commentators fulminate on a regular basis. More obviously “deplorable” are Hillary’s fellow financial, political, economic, and military elites who wrecked the economy, got us mired in endless unwinnable foreign wars, and erected a virtually impenetrable cultural barrier between everyday Americans trying to live fruitful lives and their pretentious, well-heeled superiors ensconced in select coastal enclaves. It is thanks to the actions of this “basket of deplorables” that we’re in the situation we’re in, where an oaf like Trump is perilously close to seizing the presidency.

     

    At a recent Trump rally in Lancaster County, Pa., I was bemused to encounter a coterie of local Amish people who’d traveled there together by bus. Asked why they backed Trump, the overwhelming response was that Amish folks just wanted to preserve their traditional way of life (which they saw as under siege) and perceived Trump as enabling them to carry on with it. Some told me they supported Trump not because of some overweening disdain for their nation’s fellowmen, or immigrants, or even coastal liberals, but because they felt that the federal government was intruding on their ability to properly run their small farms.

     

    One Amish gentleman, remarking on Trump’s apparent lack of strident religious belief, added of Trump: “He’s not a Christian, but he’ll protect the Christian cause.” Veteran religion reporter Bob Smietana later remarked that he could not recall a previous instance of Amish people showing up en masse to a presidential campaign event.

     

    Naturally, upon tweeting photos from the rally, I was inundated with indignant cries from ostensible liberals claiming that the people in question weren’t real Amish, or were desperately deluded, or similar snark. True: the Amish lifestyle isn’t for everybody. Nor do the Amish foist it on anyone else. One virtue of the United States is that it’s a huge, pluralistic democratic republic with lots of land and lots of room for people to practice their beliefs as they see fit.

     

    You don’t necessarily have to love these peculiar belief systems to tolerate their existence. Indeed, some of them undoubtedly contain facets that are bigoted and/or vulgar, and you are free to vociferously criticize them. Some even might be cut off from popular culture, as is the case with the Amish, who certainly are not attuned to the daily outrage avalanche dished out by mainstream-media organs—but this doesn’t mean that the people who practice old-fashioned lifestyles are somehow morally sullied or “deplorable.” It means they have different life trajectories.

     

    This also holds true in Lewiston, Maine, where Trump is favored to win the 2nd Congressional District and therefore at least one (potentially crucial) electoral vote. (Maine and Nebraska allocate their electoral votes by congressional district.) Lots of Franco-Americans populate this area, and many old-timers still speak French with a distinctive Central Mainer dialect. (Often it comes out when folks get inebriated at the bars in town.) When I visited recently, everyone basically had the same story: mills use to be the lifeblood of the local economy and by extension its civic institutions. Once the mills inexplicably shuttered, these workers lost their sense of location and community. Social-club memberships dwindled; parades and marches down the main thoroughfare became less of an attraction. There’s just not a hell of a lot going on nowadays, except Patriots games on TV, drinking, and drugs. Anybody with the means usually either bolts for relatively more prosperous Bangor to the north, or south to Boston and beyond.

     

    Are the people who live in Lewiston really “deplorables”? Most of them like Trump, but they’re not the ones who crashed the economy or agitated to invade Iraq, as Hillary did.

     

    Again: perhaps the true deplorables are the unaccountable elites whose decisions directly worsened life for millions of Americans. Oddly, you never hear Hillary running around to high-roller fundraisers condemning Goldman Sachs for their deplorable conduct; maybe that’s because they’ve directly given her and Bill hundreds of thousands of dollars for “speeches,” excerpts of which finally came out last Friday and are just as degenerate as you’d expect.

     

    (Goldman banned partners from giving money to Trump’s campaign, but handing over cash to Hillary is still perfectly fine.)

     

    Maybe the Amish of southeast Pennsylvania or the Franco-Americans of central Maine don’t use the correct Twitter hashtags or subscribe to Lena Dunham’s newsletter, but they’re still good people with normal ambitions for a happy, secure life. Screeching “deplorable!” at them is itself deplorable, especially because it lets the elites who bungled the country’s affairs off the hook.

    Read the entire piece here: The Real Deplorables.

  • State Department Asked What Is Difference Between Yemen And Syria Bombings, Awkward Moment Follows

    As we asked rhetorically yesterday, how Kerry can accuse Russia of committing war crimes in Syria with a straight face is unclear, as reports of atrocious crimes committed in Yemen continue to surface.

    It seems AP's Tom Lee questioned this hypocrisy also.

    As The Independent reports, a US government spokesperson has struggled to answer questions put to him on why the US condemns Russian bombing in Syria, and supports Saudi-led bombing in Yemen, both of which have killed thousands of civilians.

    During a media briefing in Washington DC on Tuesday, State Department spokesperson John Kirby was asked repeatedly about whether Saudi coalition bombing of Houthi rebels in Sanaa – facilitated by US arms sales to the Gulf state – deliberately targets civilian infrastructure.

     

    “Over the weekend there was this air strike on a funeral by the Saudi-led coalition,” Matt Lee of the Associated Press asked. “I was just wondering: does the administration see any difference between this kind of thing, and what you accuse the Russians, Syrians and the Iranians of doing in Syria, and particularly Aleppo?”

     

    Mr Kirby struggled to answer the question, pointing out that the Kingdom has launched an investigation into how the funeral hall was hit, whereas nothing of the sort has been carried out by the Syrian or Russian governments, which he accused of deliberately causing harm to civilians.

     

    Russia did call for an investigation into the bombing of an aid convoy near Aleppo on September 19th, which contributed to the suspension of talks on Syria between Washington and Moscow.

     

    Mr Lee, the AP’s diplomatic correspondent, continued to hold Mr Kirby’s feet to the fire on the Yemeni issue, pressing him for an answer on how “an increasing number of Yemeni civilians are at risk and being killed by weapons that the United States has furnished to the Saudis and their coalition partners.”

     

    “You don’t find any kind of issue with this? Because a lot of people do, including on [Capitol] Hill,” he added.

     

    Mr Kirby said that the situation was very different in Syria and Yemen, pointing out that Iranian-supplied Houthi rockets have killed Saudi citizens in recent months.

     

    “The Saudi-led coalition were invited in by the Yemeni government – now I know what you’re going to say, the Russians were invited by [Syrian President] Assad… but [the Saudis] are under real threat on their side of the border in that war,” he said.

    But as TheAntiMedia's Darius Shahtahmasebi details, it's not just some of the better-informed US press corps that is angry at this utter hypocrisy… Russia’s Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, lost her cool in response to a Western journalist who asked her the question: “Why is Russia supporting Assad, who is killing civilians?

    Apparently, one should remind themselves that American bombs, which have been launched in at least ten Muslim countries since 1980, do not kill civilians. Ever.

    If they do, these are mere accidents – always.

    And more often than not, the civilians were probably doing something bad, anyway, or they wouldn’t have been on the receiving end of American missiles.

    Despite these glaring contradictions in the journalist’s question, Zakharova focused more on the failures of the parties involved to bring peace to Syria. Her response provides us with some valuable insight into why the Syrian peace process continues to fail. It also raises some very critical questions and points for consideration.

    Zakharova said:

    “This is the crux of the issue – let’s sit down and agree which groups are terrorists, and which ones are not. Let’s begin to work together. What other way is there? Tell me. You want us to just exit Syria? Pack up and leave the terrorists there? That is not a way out. I am not going to repeat just how many UN Security Council documents and resolutions there are that call to fight against terrorism. And Al-Nusra is a terrorist group! [as per the UN list].”

    Washington and its allies would undoubtedly welcome a scenario in which Russia would be forced to abandon the Syrian regime. This could explain John Kerry’s recent statements that Russia should be investigated for war crimes, something the U.S. would never inflict upon itself despite its military ventures in an overwhelming number of sovereign nations.

    Zakharova added:

    Leaving is not an option for us because everyone now understands that something has to be done in order to curb this terror threat. This is the crux of the issue. And of course we understand that armed conflict is taking place and we see that the civilian population is suffering, there is no question about that. But this is why we created the center for cooperation with the U.S., so that we could work and decide together.

    Zakharova then proceeded to tell the journalist the real reasons behind the failing of the peace process in Syria — from Russia’s point of view:

    “There are parties that continually stop the US and Russia from working together on this matter. Despite arrangements in place for this to happen, they still got their way to ensure this did not happen.  This does not mean that positions can’t change tomorrow – but today it is advantageous for these parties to have interrupted this dialogue between US and Russia.”

     

    “This is the crux of the issue. And one more thing – the main message that [Western] mainstream media is delivering is that ‘the Russian air force is killing Syrian civilians.’ Or the Syrian army is doing that with the help of the Russian air force.”

    Zakharova apparently took issue with the fact the U.S. coalition has been in Syria longer than Russia has yet only Russia gets lambasted regularly by the corporate media.

    “One more question – 2 years ago, what on earth did the American coalition proceed to do there?

     

    “You know, if the civilians were not in danger, what were you doing there? Well, they were in danger, and the Americans went there, in their words, to help them. Do you understand that you can’t be selective and look at things in isolation? We have to agree that the civilian population is suffering, the blockade, the hostages and they are surrounded by al-Nusra. So let’s sit down and agree together, where are the civilians and where are the terror groups? And work together.”

    However — and this is where Zakharova’s response becomes incredibly insightful — the Minister actually designates two parties that have blocked the Syrian peace process from moving forward. Zakharova does not name them directly, but there are only a handful of countries she could be referencing, making this an issue worthy of investigation:

    “This is the work that we are being stopped from doing. The talks on Syria are about to begin again – but everyone understands that the two rotating member countries (from the UN Security Council) have a decisive capability and they are blocking our progress. This is because we have finally approached the crux of the problem – al-Nusra.” (emphasis added)

     

    “Al-Nusra are the new mujahideen. Do you understand this concept? Go and read some history – research how al-Qaeda came to be. It’s exactly the same thing. Point by point, it is exactly the same. The financing; the moral and ideological support. And what did your relationship with the mujahideen cause? It created al-Qaeda. And al-Qaeda – you all know what that is.”

     

    “So you can’t simplify [isolated events] like this, you have to understand what caused it. You can’t logically follow mainstream [garbage] ‘Russia is killing everyone and everyone is trying to stop Russia.’ This is rubbish.”

    Zakharova doesn’t let the journalist off lightly – nor Western media in general. Zakharova’s frustration, felt by many of us who are trying to follow the Syrian conflict as accurately as possible, is that the simplification of these issues, taken out of their historical context, presents a threat to the advancement of the human race. Without understanding why events are unfolding the way they are, the American people and the people of the world could be led down a dangerous path and would be none the wiser.

    “I’m very sorry for my expression but – such simplification means that [Western] stupidity is more dangerous than the threat itself. And when simplification of this scale happens in [Western] mainstream media, I think this is more scary than terrorism itself. Simplify everything to the extreme, and only show it from one angle it might work in.

    No one can morally justify potential Russian war crimes. However, the evidence continues to demonstrate that one side of the conflict has refused to cooperate pragmatically in Syria and has instead continued a number of policies that have merely exacerbated the conflict.

    If the U.S. were truly committed to fighting terrorism, they would work with Russia to determine which groups should be designated terror groups and which ones should be off-limits. So far they have not. Apparently, striking Syrian soldiers who are battling ISIS militants is a much more worthwhile venture – so worthwhile it seems that the U.S. wants to do it again.

    *  *  *

    We are reminded of Glenn Greenwald's clear tweet on the matter…

     

    This is not to say Russia and Syria should not be investigated for war crimes – but maybe, just maybe, we could live in a world where everyone responsible for committing these gross acts could be held accountable, instead of just those who pose an economic threat to the West.

  • CLiNToN DeLiVeRaNCe…

    CLINTON DELIVERANCE

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