Today’s News 24th April 2016

  • Is This The End Of The U.S Dollar? Geopolitical Moves "Obliterate U.S Petrodollar Hegemony"

    Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

    It seems the end really is nigh for the U.S. dollar.

    And the mudfight for global dominance and currency war couldn’t be more ugly or dramatic.

    The Saudis are now openly threatening to take down the U.S. economy in the ongoing fallout over collapsing oil prices and tense geopolitical events involving the 9/11 cover-up. The New York Times reports:

    Saudi Arabia has told the Obama administration and members of Congress that it will sell off hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of American assets held by the kingdom if Congress passes a bill that would allow the Saudi government to be held responsible in American courts for any role in the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

    China has been working for years to establish global currency status, and will strengthen the yuan by backing it with gold in moves clearly designed to cripple the role of the dollar. Zero Hedge reports:

    China’s shift to an official local-currency-based gold fixing is “the culmination of a two-year plan to move away from a US-centric monetary system,” according to Bocom strategist Hao Hong. In an insightfully honest Bloomberg TV interview, Hong admits that “by trading physical gold in renminbi, China is slowly chipping away at the dominance of US dollars.”

    Putin also waits in the shadows, making similar moves and creating alliances to out-balance the United States with a growing Asian economy on the global stage.

    Luke Rudkowski of WeAreChange asks “Is This The End of the U.S. Dollar?” in the video below.

    He writes:

    In this video Luke Rudkowski reports on the breaking news of both China and Saudi Arabia making geopolitical moves that could cause a U.S economic collapse and obliteration of the U.S hegemony petrodollar. We go over China’s new gold backed yuan that cannot be traded in U.S dollars and rising tension with Saudi Arabia threatening economic blackmail if their role in 911 is exposed.

    Visit WeAreChange.org where this video report was first published.

    The Federal Reserve, Henry Kissinger, the Rockefellers and their allies created the petrodollar and insisted upon the world using the U.S. dollar to buy oil, placing debt in American currency and entire countries under the yoke of the West.

    But that paradigm has been crumbling as world order shifts away from U.S. hegemony.

    It is a matter of when – not if – these events will change the U.S. financial landscape forever.

    As SHTF has warned, major events are taking place, and no one can say if stability will be here tomorrow.

    Stay vigilant, and prepare yourself and your family as best as you can.

  • FBI May "Leak" Clinton Email Probe If DOJ Blocking Continues

    The feud between the FBI and the Department of Justice over whether or not to proceed with charges against Hillary Clinton in the ongoing email investigation just took an unexpected turn.

    Recall that one month ago, we found out that on one hand, the FBI is seemingly hell-bent on chasing down every possibly angle involving Hillary’s email abuse, when we reported that one hundred forty-seven FBI agents have been deployed to chase down clues and leads and that the FBI has accelerated the investigation because officials want to avoid the possibility of announcing any action too close to the election. A former Clinton staffer is also cooperating with that investigation, and it’s believed Clinton herself will be questioned.

    The flipside has been the Department of Justice which has been stonewalling the probe every step of the way. It hasn’t been alone in its unwillingness to pursue Hillary: on April 1, the state department announced that it is suspending its probe of “top secret” Clinton emails.

    The divergence of these two paths, one which wants to get to the bottom of Hillary’s email probe and the other which is dead set on blocking it, has led online betting markets such as PredictIt to put the the odds of federal charges being filed against Hillary at record lows.

     

    Which, paradoxically, could be bad news for Hillary.

    On Friday, US Senator Chuck Grassley who chairs the Senate Judiciary Committee, and who has pushed for additional scrutiny of Clinton’s email use during her tenure as secretary of state, dropped a dramatic “hint” during a breakfast meeting with the Des Moines A.M. Rotary club when he suggested that the FBI “might leak”, hypothetically-speaking of course, reports of its investigation into presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server as secretary of state.

    In practically laying out the next steps in Hillarygate, Grassley said “an anonymous and unauthorized release of FBI investigative materials could result if officials at the agency believed prosecution of Clinton was stymied for political reasons” according to the Des Moines register.

    “Is there going to be political interference? If there’s enough evidence to prosecute, will there be political interference?” Grassley wondered aloud on Friday. “And if there’s political interference, then I assume that somebody in the FBI is going to leak these reports and it’s either going to have an effect politically or it’s going to lead to prosecution if there’s enough evidence.

    The senior senator’s musing came in response to a long answer to a very general question from one of the Rotarians about the status on inquiries into the email server and Clinton’s handling of the 2012 terrorist attack on a diplomatic post in Benghazi, Libya.

    Which, of course, would be potentially devastating for Hillary as not only would her misdeed as chronicled by the Feds be fully in the open and ammo for any of her competitors in the presidential race, but would also confirm that the Department of Justice is anything but, and has led to such a dramatic perversion of the law as being forced to leak evidence of criminality in the public arena just so the population can be made aware of Hillary’s actions.

    As for Grassley’s unorthodox “suggestion”, when asked by Radio Iowa reporter O. Kay Henderson after the breakfast if he was suggesting the FBI should leak investigative findings, Grassley expounded on his comment.

    “I wouldn’t be encouraging it because if it’s a violation of law, I can’t be encouraging a violation of law,” he said. “This is kind of my own opinion, this is something I’ve heard.”

    Yes, Chuck, we get it. And now we wonder how long before a treasure trove of “leaked” FBI documents exposing the full extent of Hillary’s action is leaked, although we can’t help but wonder that just like the Panama Papers dump, the media will be prepared and will promptly redirect the public’s attention to Vladimir Putin once again as the guilty party behind it all.

  • Kim Jong Un Forces Starving North Koreans To Watch Gourmet Cooking Competition

    One way to deal with bouts of projectile dysfunction is either to launch even more ballistic missiles, or just to call in a thousand of your country’s top cooks and have them make comfort food for you.

     

    According to the Post, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un broadcast a “master chef” style competition to find the country’s top chef, as well as to gorge on food as millions of starving viewers looked on.

    More than 1,000 people entered the competition, with the Pyongyang Times reporting: “The festival was comprised of the exhibitions of gastrological [sic] hits, famous and local special dishes and compulsory dishes and the technical contest and demonstration of top chefs and waiters and waitresses.

    “The participants presented famous local and foreign dishes and specialties of their units and local areas.” The TV menu included some European dining options including pizza and spaghetti as well as a five-pheasant dish and “broccoli five ways.”

    The ultimate arbiter of the food was the tubby tyrant, who by sampling the wares was one step closer to his esthetic ideal: according to defectors from the Communist country he is fattening himself up to look like his grandfather, Eternal President Kim Il-sung, who is still the reclusive county’s head of state despite having been dead since 1994.

    And while young Kim was pointing and looking at machines that do “stuff” and deciding between five-pheasant dish and “broccoli five ways” or to go straight to desert, he conveniently forgot yet again that his country remains on the verge of a famine.

     

  • Hybrid War Hyenas Are Tearing Brazil Apart

    Authored by Pepe Escobar, Op-Ed via RT.com,

    The gloomy and repulsive night when the female president of the 7th largest economy in the world was the prey of choice fed to a lynch mob of hyenas in a drab, provincial Circus Maximus will forever live in infamy.

    By 367 votes for and 137 against, the impeachment/coup/regime change-light drive against Dilma Rousseff cleared the Brazilian Congressional circus and will now go to the Senate, where a “special commission” will be set up. If approved, Rousseff will then be sidelined for 180 days and a low-rent tropical Brutus, Vice-President Michel Temer, will ascend to power until the Senate’s final verdict.

    This lowly farce should serve as a wake-up call not only to the BRICS but to the whole Global South. Who needs NATO, R2P (“responsibility to protect”) or “moderate rebels” when you can get your regime change just by tweaking a nation’s political/judicial system?

    The Brazilian Supreme Court has not analyzed the merit of the matter – at least not yet. There’s no solid evidence anywhere Rousseff committed a “crime of responsibility”; she did what every American President since Reagan has done – not to mention leaders all across the world: along with her vice-president, the lowly Brutus, Rousseff got slightly creative with the federal budget’s numbers.

    The coup has been sponsored by a certified crook, president of the lower house Eduardo Cunha; reportedly the holder of several illegal accounts in Switzerland, listed in the Panama Papers and under investigation by the Supreme Court. Instead of lording over near-illiterate hyenas in a racist, largely crypto-fascist circus, he should be behind bars. It beggars belief that the Supreme Court has not launched legal action against Cunha. The secret of his power over the circus is a gigantic corruption scheme lasting many years, featuring corporations contributing to his and others’ campaign financing.

    And that’s the beauty of a regime change-light/color revolution of Hybrid War when staged in such a dynamically creative nation such as Brazil. The hall of mirrors yields a political simulacrum that would have driven deconstructionists Jean Baudrillard and Umberto Eco, if alive, green with envy; a Congress crammed with fools/patsies/traitors/crooks, some of whom are already being investigated for corruption, has conspired to depose a president who is not under any formal corruption investigation – and has not committed any “crime of responsibility”.

    The neoliberal restoration

    Still, without a popular vote, the massively rejected tropical Brutus twins, Temer and Cunha, will find it impossible to govern, even though they would perfectly incarnate the project of the immensely arrogant and ignorant Brazilian elites; a neoliberal triumph, with Brazilian “democracy” trampled down six feet under.

    It’s impossible to understand what happened at the Circus Maximus last Sunday without knowing there’s a gaggle of Brazilian political parties that are seriously threatened by the non-stop overspill of the Car Wash corruption investigation. To ensure their survival, Car Wash must be “suspended”; and it will, under the bogus “national unity” proposed by lowly Brutus Temer.

    But first, Car Wash must produce a high-profile scalp. And that has to be Lula in jail – compared to which the crucifixion of Rousseff is an Aesop fable. Corporate media, led by the noxious Globo empire, would hail it as the ultimate victory, and nobody would care about Car Wash’s enforced retirement.

    The 54 million-plus who voted for Rousseff’s reelection in 2014 voted wrong. The overall “project” is a government without vote and without people; a Brazilian-style parliamentary system, without bothering with pesky “elections” and crucially, including very “generous” campaign financing flexibility not bound to incriminate powerful companies/corporations.

    In a nutshell, the ultimate aim is to perfectly “align” the Brazilian Executive, Legislative, Judiciary and corporate media interests. Democracy is for suckers. Brazilian elites remote controlling the hyenas know very well that if Lula runs again in 2018, he will win. And Lula has already warned; he won’t buy any “national unity” crap; he’ll be back in the streets fighting whatever illegitimate government pops up.

    We’re now open for plundering

    As it stands, Rousseff runs the risk of becoming the first major casualty of the NSA-originated, two-year-long Car Wash investigation. The President, admittedly an incompetent economic manager and lacking the right stuff of a master politician, believed that Car Wash – which practically prevented her from governing – would not reach her because she is personally honest. Yet Car Wash’s not so hidden agenda was always regime change. Who cares if in the process the nation is left on the verge of being controlled exactly by many of those indicted by the anti-corruption drive?

    Lowly Brutus Temer – a vanity case version of Argentina’s Macri – is the perfect conduit for the implementation of regime change. He represents the powerful banking lobby, the powerful agribusiness lobby and the powerful federation of industries in Brazil’s economic leader, the state of Sao Paulo.

    The neo-developmentalist project for Latin America – uniting at least some of the local elites, invested in developing internal markets, in association with the working classes – is now dead, because what may be defined as sub-hegemonic, or peripheral, capitalism is mired in crisis after the 2008 Wall Street-provoked debacle. What’s left is just neoliberal restoration. TINA (“there is no alternative”). This implies, in the Brazilian case, the savage reversion of Lula’s legacy; social policies, technological policies, the drive to globally expand large, competitive Brazilian companies, more public universities, better salaries.

    In a message to the nation, Brutus Temer admitted as much; “hope” after impeachment will be absolutely swell for “foreign investment”, as in let them plunder the colony at will; back to the trademark history of Brazil since 1500.

    So Wall Street, US Big Oil and the proverbial “American interests” win this round at the circus – thanks to the, once again proverbial, vassal/comprador elites. Chevron execs are already salivating with the prospect of laying their hands on the pre-salt oil deposits; that was already promised by a trusted vassal in the Brazilian opposition.

    The coup goes on. The real hyenas haven’t yet pounced. So it's far from over.

  • Guess Who's On The Front Of The New $20 'Trillion Debt' Bill
  • Beware The Bubble In China's Domestic Commodity Market

    Via PandaHedge.com,

    We just see another bubble building up in China, aka the domestic commodity market.  On April 21st, led by bellwether Rebar Steel futures, other 7 commodities were lifted to the up limit (5% to 7%), including iron ore, HRC steel, met coal, asphalt, methanol, cotton, and egg (yes, it’s egg! No one has idea why even eggs go up together with other commodities).  The endless money just flood everywhere in the domestic commodity market, especially for those lagged behind, and fundamentals do not matter here.  The case of Rebar major contract RB1610 (settle in Oct 2016) can tell you how crazy the market is.  On April 21st, RB1610’s trading volume is 22M contracts (equal to 220M tn of rebar steel), but China only produces 200M tn rebar in 2015 (China total steel production is around 850M tn per year).  So the Chinese trades one year production volume for the underlying commodity in a single day, for a specific contract (Oct 2016) only!

    Below is the YTD performace of the major commodities trading in the China domestic futures market.

    price change

    The bulls talk about inflation trade, while the bears talk about deteriorating fundamentals.  Apparently, both side speak in different languages, and in the short term, the side with stronger fire power (money) wins.  The Shanghai Chaos Fund, which was famous for shorting big in copper in 2015, is reported to lose around $80M a day on April 20th as it holds 120k contracts short position in Rebar.  One of its flagship funds, Chaos Value I which invests in A share and commodities, has declined 19% YTD.

    We all know China created $1 tn credit in Q1 to stimuluate the economy, and apparently part of the money flows into the commodity market (the infamous A share equity market is deemed as “bear market” now and the speculators don’t even bother to trade there).  As indicated by the chart below, the total China domestic commodity daily trading amount is RMB1.4tn per day in 2016 (YTD), compared to RMB1.1tn per day in 2015, a 27% increase.  On Apirl 20th, its trading amount hits RMB2.9 tn, compared to the A share market’s RMB0.5tn amount.

    Trading volume

    Trading amount in Chinese domestic commodity market (value in RMB100M)

    Seeing the great “opportunities” of the fantasty commodity bull markets, Chinese retails investors rush to the brokers to open new accounts.  It’s reported that the new accounts number in April is double or triple of the normal days.  Does it smell the same as 2015’s A share market?

     

    But wait, the leverage in the commodities market (easily 10x) is much higher than that in the A share market (normally 2-4x).  If the investors still remember the lesson in 2015, they should pay extra attention now.  When the music stops, the collapse of price can be faster and steeper than the pace of going up.  2009 already showed us a real example in the Rebar market.

    IMG_2657

    White line: Rebar price in 2009 (lhs),  Purple line: Rebar price in 2016 (rhs)

    Is the Rebar rally sustainable?  The A share equity investors gives their own answer.  The orange line (below) is China’s rebar price and the purple line is the share price of Baosteel, the flagship Chinese steel company. 

    Rebar price compare

    Apparently the equity investors don’t believe the rally is sustainable.  However, the funny thing is the North American equity investors are chasing the most leveraged commodities equity names (green line is US Steel and blue line is Teck Resources).  They must hope the comodity rally can continue and hold at high level for a while.  So we will see who is right, the Chinese commodity speculators or North American equity investors.

  • One Reader Tried To Get A Transcript Of What Obama Said To Yellen; This Is What The Fed Replied

    One month ago we showed something curious: literally, the very hour the market was hitting its February lows, Janet Yellen was on the phone with Bank of England governor (and former Goldman Sachs employee) Marc Carney, followed the very next day by a conversation with ECB president (and former Goldman Sachs employee) Mario Draghi.

    One reader tried to get to the bottom of the content of these phone calls and sent a FOIA to the Fed in which he requested the audio file or any documentation of the nature of the telephone call between Yellen and Carney and, subsequently, Draghi.

    The Fed’s response: a resounding “no”, for the following reason: “the responsive document contains nonpublic commercial or financial information” and while “the document containing the exempt information was reviewed… no reasonably segregable nonexempt information was found.” Case closed.

    This came from the “most transparent Fed ever.”

    A few days later, another very important and once again “behind closed doors” event took place: Yellen met with both Obama in the afternoon of April 10, just hours after the Fed held an emergency meeting under expedited procedures to discuss “rates.” That meeting too was confidential. 

    While clearly the detailed contents of the meeting would not be revealed, the White House was kind enough to issue the following three sentence summary:

    The President and Chair Yellen met this afternoon in the Oval Office as part of an ongoing dialogue on the state of the economy. They discussed both the near and long-term growth outlook, the state of the labor market, inequality, and potential risks to the economy, both in the United States and globally. They also discussed the significant progress that has been made through the continued implementation of Wall Street Reform to strengthen our financial system and protect consumers.

    This in turn came from the “most transparent administration ever.” Sarcasm aside, the above was far more “transparent” than what the Fed provided following Yellen’s meeting, which was nothing.

    Which is why one reader decided to once again give it a try, and get to the bottom of what was said during the Yellen-Obama meeting asking for the minutes from said meeting.

    The Fed’s response: “we don’t keep those.”

    And that, dear readers, is how fully and thoroughly accountable to the public both the White House and the Federal Reserve truly are.

  • Japan's Keynesian Death Spiral – How Central Planners Crippled An Economy

    Submitted by Yonathan Amselem via The Mises Institute,

    The greatest tragedy of the 2008–2009 financial meltdown was not that it happened. The collapse of asset prices was the necessary result of near zero interest rates. No, the most devastating aspect of the financial meltdown is that central planning alchemy lost no credibility. Policymakers around the world are still turning to Keynesian and socialist interventionism to address problems caused by Keynesians and socialists. The twin sledgehammers of central banking and almost unlimited state power have so distorted global markets (again) that some economies are now terminal. The latest victim of the interventionists and micromanagers is the nation of Japan. A once genuinely productive and innovative nation has, over the years, slowly succumbed to the cancerous rot of interventionism.

    Japan’s World War II defeat left behind a barren rocky island whose industrial capacity, infrastructure, and labor force were devastated by Allied bombs. Japan’s flattened cities and smoldering factories may have painted a gloomy future but Japan had the thing that mattered most — a population largely free to organize and rebuild. The American military and remnants of central Japanese authority tried to lead the rebuilding of Japan through the political process but lines of communication and the transportation infrastructure were so damaged that many population centers away from Tokyo were left relatively free to rebuild. The resulting Japanese economic boom catapulted Japan’s living standards to a level on par with most Westernized nations. This explosive growth, described as a “miracle,” was no such thing. Japan’s new-found prosperity was simply what happens when markets are allowed to function. Unfortunately, the central planners in banking and government couldn’t resist the statist urge of heavy-handed interventionism. If there’s anything the political elite hate, its free people making voluntary decisions without their forceful input.

    Central Planning Has Turned Japanese Corporations into Welfare Queens

    The central planners imposed a number of zany anti-market schemes on the Japanese economy that have never been substantively reformed to this day. Legislators shielded Japan’s massive industrial base from foreign competition through protectionist tariffs and even subsidized some overseas exports. On the domestic front, nascent Japanese companies were heavily burdened by onerous regulations and very high taxes — this made it nearly impossible for start-ups to get off the ground and challenge the corporate establishment’s market share. As if this was not enough, exporters were further coddled by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). The BOJ has been fervently trying to turn the yen into toilet paper for the last thirty years. A cheap currency means artificially high profits for companies that export goods and artificially high costs for companies that import goods. After all, no government scheme could rightfully call itself a government scheme if it didn’t enrich somebody at the direct expense of others. The destructive effects of these policies have massively eroded Japanese productivity in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries.

    As happens in all industrialized economies with a powerful state and central bank, Japan’s largest corporations became agents or semi-agents of the state. Japanese automakers, shippers, and other producers could reliably be expected to carry out carry out government labor or production policy in exchange for direct access to politicians, cheap loans, anti-competitive legislation, guaranteed profits, and bail outs. Japanese companies (particularly manufacturers) are deeply entrenched and largely immune to domestic and foreign competitors. Government protectionism turned once productive Japanese companies slow and arthritic. The few actually productive sectors of Japan have been forcefully shrunken by taxes to subsidize an outrageously bloated government and the multitude of corporate parasites huddled around its teats. The result is that Japanese companies are increasingly noncompetitive in a global marketplace shared by dynamic companies from Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Hong Kong, and other more-market-oriented economies.

    Keynesian Alchemy in Japan

    Japan’s Keynesian death spiral began almost three decades ago. In 1986 the value of the Japanese yen almost doubled relative to the US dollar. Consequently, Japan’s mammoth export sector took a beating. Businesses with political influence found they could achieve higher returns not by innovating or cutting costs, but rather, by pressuring the political and monetary elite to flood the market with cheap credit. The BOJ and short-sighted politicians were happy to oblige. The result was a bubble unlike anything Japan had ever experienced. The land value of Tokyo surpassed the land value of the entirety of the United States. In just a few short years, the Nikkei quadrupled in size and an enormous Japanese financial sector came into existence. The overfinancialization of an economy is among the first signs of a malignant central bank sized tumor. The rise of gargantuan investment banks and multimillion dollar derivatives traders in the United States correlated almost exactly with the death of sound (ish) money in 1971 (Nixon’s administration took the United States completely off the gold standard). Japan’s monetary madness resulted in corporations and households assuming record levels of debt that were financed by zero savings in the private economy.

    The inevitable bursting of the bubble in the early 1990s was truly spectacular. The Nikkei lost over 80 percent of its value, land and home prices almost completely flattened, and GDP growth crashed to an anemic 1 percent. When economists refer to Japan’s “lost decade” they refer to Japan’s post-bubble economy. Yet, Japan now finds itself creeping into a third decade with minuscule growth. The Nikkei and asset prices have never recovered anywhere near their previous highs. Anyone getting into the Nikkei in 1990 would, after twenty-six years, have returns of roughly -50 percent. Keynesians and other economic interventionists would do well to view Japan as the canary in the coal mine. The United States and Europe have doubled down on Keynesian alchemy this last decade but our leaders need only look at the devastation these schemes have brought to Japan — a nation that has tried to borrow, print, and tax itself into prosperity for thirty years. Japan is in the late stages of Keynesian cancer and policymakers in the rest of the developed world would do well to take notice.

    Demographics

    As if the political elite’s harebrained schemes weren’t doing enough to put a nail in Japan’s coffin, the nation is also suffering a demographic disaster. A country that consumes more adult diapers than baby diapers is a nation on its way to the dustbin of history. There is such a shortage of young, capable labor in Japan that the nation has even started importing “interns” from China to work in its many industries. As is happening in Europe and the United States, endless undergraduate and postgraduate “education” has sheltered young adults more and more from the real skills demanded by the labor market. Young adulthood is financed almost exclusively by debt or capital consumption of their parent’s savings. The hassles of starting and raising a family have become more and more burdensome to unskilled, indebted Japanese couples (with no savings) that probably only enter the workforce for the first time in their mid-twenties.

    It Is Not Too Late

    Japan has a highly capable workforce, an impressive industrial base, and all the infrastructure necessary to reassert itself as a global commercial powerhouse. Japan’s recovery means cutting taxes, paring down its outrageously expensive mercantile policies, allowing for easier immigration of foreign companies and their employees, and letting the market decide the true value of the yen. The Japanese people need to reject the schemers and planners who are suffocating a great nation.

  • It's Now Cheaper To 'Buy' A Dry Bulk Freight Tanker Than A Starbucks Coffee

    Just 3 short months ago, we detailed how – thanks to the collapse in China's growth and massive commodity inventory gluts, the cost of renting a Dry Bulk Tanker was less than the cost of renting a ferrari for a day…

     

     

    As Bloomberg reported at the time,

    Rates for Capesize-class ships plummeted 92 percent since August to $1,563 a day amid slowing growth in China. That’s less than a third of the daily rate of 3,950 pounds ($5,597) to rent a Ferrari F40, the price of which has also fallen slightly in the past few years, according to Nick Hardwick, founder of supercarexperiences.com.

     

    The Baltic Exchange’s rates reflect the cost of hiring the vessel but not fuel costs. Ships burn about 35 metric tons a day, implying a cost of about $4,000 at present prices, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

    One would think, considering how much the Baltic Dry Index has 'surged' off its all-time record lows – and the noise being spewed by Cramer et al. that this is somehow indicative of the "big comeback" in the Chinese (and world) economies – that the situation would have improved… But it has not!

     

    For the cost of $1 – less than the price of a Grande Black Coffee at Starbucks – you too can be the owner of a 58,429 deadweight tonne bulk carrier…

    As The Guardian reports,

    Goldenport, one of the last shipping companies left on the London Stock Exchange, has delisted from the market and sold off six of its remaining eight vessels for $1…

     

    The giveaway reflects the most dismal shipping conditions in decades, caused by economic slowdown in China combined with an oversupply of vessels due to a building spree during a previous boom and the fact that "average daily hire rates have fallen below even a vessel’s daily operating expenses."

     

    The Greek owners are looking for buyers for two remaining vessels and are taking Goldenport off the stock market, saying it no longer makes sense to list shares which have dropped from highs of $100 in 2007 to less than 2c now.

     

    John Dragnis, the chief executive of Goldenport, said “Dry bulk vessels generally have fallen in value by around 60% over the last year partly because of extreme oversupply and partly because of low demand for coal as China moves towards renewable energy to curb [carbon] emissions," adding that “The prevailing market conditions are probably the worst of the last 30 years."

    All of which seems very odd given the aforementioned resurgence of the Baltic Dry – unless that is not reflecting reality (like so many other indicators).which leaves us to wonder if all this exuberant excitement with regard the Baltic Dry Index's resurrection from the dead is just more China-credit-fueled smoke-and-mirrors speculation – just as it was in 2009 when QE unleashed hope, only to be dashed on the shores of demand-doldrum-reality…

    Richard Fulford-Smith, the founder of the Affinity shipbroking firm and a leading figure in the London maritime scene, said the bulk shipping markets were in “a sad state” and there could be more bankruptcies and exits before any bounce back. Fulford-Smith, 60, added: “I will probably be retired by the time there is any real recovery.”

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Today’s News 23rd April 2016

  • Weather Channel Founder Slams Global Warming: "The Theory Has Failed"

    If Bill Nye had his way, Weather Channel founder John Coleman would be heading for jail. Having spent more than 60 years as a meteorologist, Coleman penned a pointed rebuke to "the science guy's" vehement faith in the 'science' of climate change, exclaiming that "science has taken a back seat at The UN… get politics out of the climate debate."

    On this Earth Day 2016, there is a great deal of frenzy about how our Earth is going to become uninhabitable, as the civilized activities of man allegedly trigger unstoppable global warming and climate change.

     

    With the Obama administration set to commit the U.S. to the Paris climate agreement by signing our nation onto the document Friday, it is obvious that science has taken a back seat at the United Nations.

     

    The environmentalists, bureaucrats and politicians who make up the U.N.’s climate panel recruit scientists to research the climate issue. And they place only those who will produce the desired results. Money, politics and ideology have replaced science.

     

     

    U.N. climate chief Christiana Figueres has called for a “centralized transformation” that is “going to make the life of everyone on the planet very different” to combat the alleged global warming threat. How many Americans are looking forward to the U.N. transforming their lives?

     

    Another U.N. official has admitted that the U.N. seeks to “redistribute de facto the world’s wealth by climate policy.” The former head of the U.N. climate panel also recently declared that global warming “is my religion.”

     

    When all the scare talk is pushed aside, it is the science that should be the basis for the debate. And the hard cold truth is that the basic theory has failed. Many notable scientists reject man-made global warming fears. And several of them, including a Nobel Prize winner, are in the new Climate Hustle movie. The film is an informative and even humorous new feature length movie that is the ultimate answer to Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth. It will be shown one day only in theaters nationwide on May 2.

     

    As a skeptic of man-made global warming, I love our environment as much as anyone. I share the deepest commitment to protecting our planet for our children and grandchildren. However, I desperately want to get politics out of the climate debate. The Paris climate agreement is all about empowering the U.N. and has nothing to do with the climate.

    Source: USA Today

  • Patrick Buchanan: Dishonoring General Jackson

    Submitted by Patrick Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

    In Samuel Eliot Morison’s “The Oxford History of the American People,” there is a single sentence about Harriet Tubman.

    “An illiterate field hand, (Tubman) not only escaped herself but returned repeatedly and guided more than 300 slaves to freedom.”

    Morison, however, devotes most of five chapters to the greatest soldier-statesman in American history, save Washington, that pivotal figure between the Founding Fathers and the Civil War — Andrew Jackson.

    Slashed by a British officer in the Revolution, and a POW at 14, the orphaned Jackson went west, rose to head up the Tennessee militia, crushed an Indian uprising at Horseshoe Bend, Alabama, in the War of 1812, then was ordered to New Orleans to defend the threatened city.

    In one of the greatest victories in American history, memorialized in song, Jackson routed a British army and aborted a British scheme to seize New Orleans, close the Mississippi, and split the Union.

    In 1818, ordered to clean out renegade Indians rampaging in Georgia, Jackson stormed into Florida, seized and hanged two British agitators, put the Spanish governor on a boat to Cuba, and claimed Florida for the USA.

    Secretary of State John Quincy Adams closed the deal. Florida was ours, and Jacksonville is among its great cities.

    Though he ran first in popular and electoral votes in 1824, Jackson was denied the presidency by the “corrupt bargain” of Adams and Henry Clay, who got secretary of state.

    Jackson came back to win the presidency in 1828, recognized the Texas republic of his old subaltern Sam Houston, who had torn it from Mexico, and saw his vice president elected after his two terms.

    He ended his life at his beloved Hermitage, pushing for the annexation of Texas and nomination of “dark horse” James K. Polk, who would seize the Southwest and California from Mexico and almost double the size of the Union.

    Was Jackson responsible for the Cherokees’ “Trail of Tears”?

    Yes. And Harry Truman did Hiroshima, and Winston Churchill did Dresden.

    Great men are rarely good men, and Jackson was a Scots-Irish duelist, Indian fighter and slave owner. But then, Presidents Washington, Jefferson, Madison and Monroe were slave owners before him.

    To remove his portrait from the front of the $20 bill, and replace it with Tubman’s, is affirmative action that approaches the absurd.

    Whatever one’s admiration for Tubman and her cause, she is not the figure in history Jackson was.

    Indeed, if the fight against slavery is the greatest cause in our history, why not honor John Brown, hanged for his raid on Harper’s Ferry to start a revolution to free the slaves, after he butchered slave owners in “Bleeding Kansas”? John Brown was the real deal.

    But replacing Jackson with Tubman is not the only change coming.

    The back of the $5 bill will soon feature Martin Luther King, Eleanor Roosevelt, and opera singer Marian Anderson, who performed at the Lincoln Memorial after being kept out of segregated Constitution Hall in 1939.

    That act of race discrimination came during the second term of FDR, Eleanor’s husband and the liberal icon who named Klansman Hugo Black to the Supreme Court and put 110,000 Japanese into concentration camps.

    And, lest we forget, while Abraham Lincoln remains on the front of the $5 bill, the war he launched cost 620,000 dead, and his beliefs in white supremacy and racial separatism were closer to those of David Duke than Dr. King.

    Alexander Hamilton, the architect of the American economy, will stay on the $10 bill, due in part to the intervention of hip-hop artists from the popular musical, “Hamilton,” in New York.

    But Susan B. Anthony, Elizabeth Cady Stanton and Sojourner Truth, who fought for women’s suffrage, will be put on the back of the $10. While Anthony and Stanton appear in Morison’s history, Sojourner Truth does not.

    Added up, while dishonoring Andrew Jackson, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew is putting on the U.S. currency six women — three white, three African-American — and King.

    No Catholics, no conservatives, no Hispanics, no white males were apparently even considered.

    This is affirmative action raised to fanaticism, a celebration of President Obama’s views and values, and a recasting of our currency to make Obama’s constituents happy at the expense of America’s greatest heroes and historic truth. Leftist role models for American kids now take precedence over the history of our Republic in those we honor.

    While King already has a holiday and monument in D.C., were the achievements of any of these six women remotely comparable to what the six men honored on our currency — Washington, Jefferson, Hamilton, Jackson, President Grant and Ben Franklin — achieved?

    Whatever may be said for Eleanor Roosevelt, compared to her husband, she is an inconsequential figure in American history.

    In the dystopian novel, “1984,” Winston Smith labors in the Ministry of Truth, dropping down the “memory hole” stories that must be rewritten to re-indoctrinate the party and proles in the new history, as determined by Big Brother. Jack Lew would have fit right in there.

  • Swedish Muslim Politician Quits After Refusing To Shake Women's Hands

    As if Sweden wasn't troubled enough, The Local reports that another Green Party politician, who ignited a storm of controversy after refusing to shake hands with a female reporter on grounds that it violated his Muslim faith, announced on Wednesday that he was quitting politics. This follows the resignation of Sweden's housing minister following a week of mounting controversy over his contacts with Islamic organisations and Turkish ultranationalists.

    During an interview with a female reporter from the TV4 broadcaster on Tuesday, Yasri Khan placed his hand over his heart instead of shaking her hand in greeting.

     

     

    "People can greet each other in different ways. The most important thing is to show respect by seeing each other, to meet each other… to respect each other," Khan said during an interview with state broadcaster Swedish Radio.

     

    Khan, also the general secretary of the organization Swedish Muslims for Peace and Justice, has faced strong criticism from within his party since the incident.

     

    "It is unacceptable. You can't have a man in the party who can't greet women in the same way you greet a man. I'm upset," Stina Bergström, a Green Party parliamentarian, told Swedish tabloid Aftonbladet.

     

    In interviews with Swedish media, Khan lashed out at his critics and said that the debate, and his fellow Muslim Green Party member Mehmet Kaplan's resignation, had caused him to run out of energy.

     

    "In today's political climate, I wonder if politics is right for me, and if I want to be a media circus clown," he told the Nyheter24 news site.

    Kahn's resignation from the Green Party follows the resignation of another Green Party member – Sweden's housing minister, Turkish-born Mehmet Kaplan…

    Sweden’s housing minister has resigned following a week of mounting controversy over his contacts with Islamic organisations and Turkish ultranationalists, piling further pressure on the country’s already unpopular minority coalition government.

     

    The Social Democrat prime minister, Stefan Lofven, said Turkish-born Mehmet Kaplan, a member of the junior coalition partner Green party and former spokesman for Sweden’s Muslim Council, had submitted his resignation and that he had accepted it.

     

    Sweden’s centre-left coalition of Social Democrats and Greens has been severely strained by Europe’s migration crisis, with the arrival of about 160,000 asylum seekers in the country last year forcing Stockholm to impose border controls and tighter rules in a U-turn on decades of generous refugee policies.

     

    Kaplan, 44, denied any wrongdoing and said he was stepping down because public and media criticism was making it impossible for him to do his job. He said he opposed “all forms of extremism, whether nationalistic, religious or in any other form” and supported “human rights, democracy and dialogue”.

     

    The minister, who was born in Turkey and arrived in Sweden at the age of eight, has come under increasing pressure after local media last week published photos of him at a dinner with Turkish ultranationalists, including the Swedish head of the extremist Grey Wolves organisation, and a former leader of the main Turkish nationalist group in Sweden, who was forced to resign earlier this month after calling on Turks to kill “the Armenian dogs”.

     

    The minister was further attacked for his links to a number of Islamic organisations, including the international Millî Görü? movement, that some suspect of promoting religious fundamentalism. Kaplan has acknowledged the ties, but said they “don’t mean I agree with them on everything”.

     

    The pressure increased at the weekend when Swedish media published seven-year-old footage of him comparing Israel’s policies towards Palestinians to the Nazis persecution of the Jews.

    It has not been a good week for the centre-left party, the junior partners of Sweden's ruling coalition. On Tuesday its co-leader and deputy prime minister, Åsa Romson, landed herself in hot water after using the Swedish word for 'accident' (which can also mean 'misfortune') to refer to the September 11th terror attacks.

  • Why US Government And Saudi Arabia Don't Want Americans Knowing The Truth About 9/11

    Via TheAntiMedia.org,

    In a rare show of bipartisanship, President Obama and top Republicans in Congress have come together to shield Americans from knowing the truth about who was behind the 9/11 terror attacks, which took the lives of 2996 people in 2001. However strange it is for neoconservative members of Congress to agree with Obama on anything, there is no doubt the issue must be serious if it warrants this level of partnership.

    The issue at hand is the classified, 28-page section of the 9/11 commission report, which many experts and politicians with knowledge of the documents have said point to Saudi Arabian government officials’ direct role in the terror attacks. This is why the Saudis put out a stern warning several days ago threatening to dump up to $750 billion in U.S. assets if Senate Bill 2040 becomes law; S.B. 2040 would make public the 28 pages and also allow for victims of 9/11 to sue foreign governments found responsible.

    The Saudis’ warning seems to have worked, with Obama now in the nation to “mend ties” with the monarchy and top Republicans sounding the alarm about the 9/11 bill. In an interview with Charlie Rose, President Obama claimed:

    “If we open up the possibility that individuals in the United States can routinely start suing other governments, then we are also opening up the United States to being continually sued by individuals in other countries,” apparently referencing the U.S.’ own attacks overseas that have taken the lives of countless civilians.

    Currently, Saudi Arabia enjoys “sovereign immunity” with the U.S., meaning even if the 28 pages proved Saudi officials were indeed behind the 9/11 attacks, Americans would not be able to seek justice for their losses. The new 9/11 bill would change that, and the Saudi response to the legislation moving through Congress reinforces suspicions the kingdom is somehow behind the 9/11 attacks.

    The video below further explains why both Saudi Arabia and members of the U.S. government don’t want the 9/11 bill to pass:

  • Gundlach Predicts "Trump Will Win", Says "The Federal Reserve Has Basically Given Up"

    In an interview posted on Swiss Finanz und Wirthschaft, Jeff Gundlach unleashes his deep ir, and in traditional style, offloads on both the Fed and all central banks, sayng that “negative interest rates are the dumbest idea ever“, adding that the Fed has given up both trying to normalize interest rates as well as trying to actually stimulate the economy:

    What you see is that the same pattern has been in place since 2012: Hope for growth in the new year that ends up being revised downwards, over and over and over again. But now we have reached the point at which no one bothers anymore about the comedy of predicting 3% real GDP growth. Even nominal GDP growth isn’t probably going to be at 3% this year. Actually, nominal GDP is at a level that has historically been a recessionary level. It isn’t this time because the inflation rate is close to zero. But no one bothers anymore and the Federal Reserve has basically given up.

    He also says the he has “been waiting for about two years for the Fed to capitulate on their interest rate increase dreams. Now, I think they did.

    As noted above, Gundlach has seen many stupid ideas in his time but nothing as bad as NIRP. “I think the next big thing will be that at some point central bankers in Japan and in Europe will have to realize that they need to give up on negative interest rates. Negative interest rates are the dumbest idea ever. It’s horrible. Look at how badly it’s been working. The day that the Bank of Japan went negative the Yen started strengthening like crazy and the stock market is down. That’s exactly the opposite of what they wanted. The same thing happened with the ECB.”

    He then takes on the US stock market, saying it “seems egregiously overvalued versus other stock markets…. fundamentally, it’s very hard to believe in US stocks. Earnings and profit margins are dropping and companies basically are borrowing money to pay dividends and to buy back shares.” He spares no love for junk bonds either: “it’s likely that you are going to see declines in the US stock market and since the correlations are so high this means that probably the junk bond market will go back down, too.”

    What about oil: “I predicted oil would make it easily to $ 40 and it did so very comfortably. But now it’s having a very hard time getting to $45. It bounces up a dollar, down a dollar and I think if oil is going back down to $ 38 people are going to be very concerned.

    His diatribe against conventional wisdom continues, when he blast that “the riskiest things are now stocks and other investments perceived to be safe. One of the most popular categories in US investing are low volatility stock funds. But there is no such thing! If you think that a stock like Johnson & Johnson can’t go down, you’re wrong. And if people own funds that invest in stocks which they think are immune from decline and they start to decline, all hell breaks loose.”

    What does Gundlach like? Gold and TSYs:

    “Gold is doing fine. It’s preserving capital in the US, it’s been making money over the last couple of years for European investors. That’s why I own gold. Because in a negative return environment anything that holds its value or makes a little is good.”

    On the topic of who wins the election, he says that “Trump is going to win. I think Clinton and Sanders are both very poor candidates. I know the polls are signaling the opposite. But the polls said the opposite four years ago, too.”

    He also thinks Trump would be the best candidate for the US economy:

    In the short term, Trump winning would be probably very positive for the economy. He says a lot of contradictory things and things that are not very specific. But he does say that he will build up the military and that he will build a wall at the border to Mexiko. If he wins he’s got at least to try those things. Also, he might initiate a big infrastructure program. What’s his campaign slogan? Make America great again. What that means is let’s go back to the past, let’s go back to the 1960s economy. So he might spend a lot of money on airports, roads and weapons. I think Trump would run up a huge deficit. Trump is very comfortable with debt. He’s a debt guy. His whole business has had a lot of debt over time and he has gone bankrupt with several enterprises. So I think you could have a debt-fuelled boom. But the overall debt level is already so high that you start to wonder what would happen after that.

    Finally, here is Gundlach’s explanation on what it takes to be a good investor:

    I made a name for myself primarily because in March of 2005 I was convinced that there would be a complete collapse of the credit market. When it was still hypothetical, people argued with me. They said that this would never happen. But I was right. So you have to find a center piece idea that will be important in driving the market. And you have to have an intuition about how other investors will react if you’re right and they wake up to that idea. Such opportunities do not happen very often. It is not always so obvious. So you have to pick your moments. In the financial markets, 80% of the time it’s a coin flip. But the other 20% of the time you have very high confidence and it’s not a coin flip. For instance, I don’t think the stock market is a coin flip. Especially in the United States stocks are very expensive, particularly low volatility stocks.

    In short, Gundlach doing what he does best: holding nothing back.

    * * *

    His full interview with FuW below:

    Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of the investment firm DoubleLine, expects central bankers to capitulate on negative interest rates and is bearish on US stocks.

    In the global financial markets the bulls have taken over once again. In the United States, stocks are even flirting with a new record high. Nevertheless, Jeff Gundlach doesn’t trust this recovery and expects a severe setback. «The riskiest things are now stocks and other investments perceived to be safe», says the CEO of the Los Angeles based investment firm DoubleLine. The star investor, who is celebrated on Wall Street as the new bond king, is surprised that nobody seems to care anymore about the worldwide growing mountain of debt. Especially in the junk bond market, he sees a massive wave of defaults on the horizon. Mr. Gundlach likes gold and thinks the Federal Reserve has given up on its plans to normalize interest rates. Next, he expects central bankers elsewhere to capitulate on negative interest rate policies.

    Mr. Gundlach, it is getting suspiciously quiet in the global financial markets. What is your assessment of the current situation?
    What you see is that the same pattern has been in place since 2012: Hope for growth in the new year that ends up being revised downwards, over and over and over again. But now we have reached the point at which no one bothers anymore about the comedy of predicting 3% real GDP growth. Even nominal GDP growth isn’t probably going to be at 3% this year. Actually, nominal GDP is at a level that has historically been a recessionary level. It isn’t this time because the inflation rate is close to zero. But no one bothers anymore and the Federal Reserve has basically given up.

    How serious is this slowdown? Could the US even fall into a recession?
    We will be on watch for that in the coming months. But it doesn’t really matter. Recessions don’t drive financial markets. It’s the other way around. People are so focused on this «recession-yes-or-no-question». What really matters is that we are in a low nominal growth environment and global growth keeps getting marked down. It is going to be slower in 2016 than in 2015.

    What does that mean with respect to monetary policy in the United States?
    I have been waiting for about two years for the Fed to capitulate on their interest rate increase dreams. Now, I think they did. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen basically capitulated on March 29th. So far she had been acting as if each voice at the Fed carried the same weight: One official would say this, and another official would say something different. And because there were contradictory statements being made, the markets were getting very confused. But Janet Yellen took control with her speech at the Economic Club of New York. She did a good job and said that she is not going to raise rates at the next Fed meeting in April despite all these other Fed officials saying that April is a possibility. But it’s not going to happen. We’re not going there. So you’ve gotten about as much capitulation as you can get.

    But what about a rate hike at the more important Fed meeting in June?
    The Fed has already reduced its forecast to two rate hikes. And that’s going to turn into one hike pretty quickly because we’re getting close to mid-year and I really doubt that they are going to do a rate hike in June. But what they are going to do is a rolling twelve month two hikes type of thing. So in June they will signal two hikes by June 2017 and then they will just keep pushing it forward. That’s a movie we’ve seen before. The Fed has pushed forward such decisions for years. We were always going to get to a Federal Funds Rate of 3% and it was always going to be starting in six months. But it never happened.

    But actually, the Fed raised interest rates in December for the first time since the financial crisis.
    Well, that didn’t work very well. The stock market crashed and the credit markets were a disaster. The Fed’s dots of four rate hikes this year made no sense and they’ve capitulated. The markets have humiliated the Fed into abandoning their pretty idiotic forecast.

    So what’s next for the financial markets?
    The capitulation of the Fed is pretty much fully priced in. But I think the next big thing will be that at some point central bankers in Japan and in Europe will have to realize that they need to give up on negative interest rates. Negative interest rates are the dumbest idea ever. It’s horrible. Look at how badly it’s been working. The day that the Bank of Japan went negative the Yen started strengthening like crazy and the stock market is down. That’s exactly the opposite of what they wanted. The same thing happened with the ECB. Around a year ago, the consensus recommendation was to sell US equities and to buy European stocks because of negative interest rates in Europe. That turned out to be the most common mistake that was made in 2015. It’s been a horrible outcome. So there is mounting evidence that negative interest rates do the opposite of what the central bankers were hoping for.

    Why don’t negative interest rates work?
    Negative interest rates are designed to fight deflation. But they are the very definition of deflation: Your money is disappearing. As an investor, you are going to have less money in the future than you have today with negative interest rates. That’s deflation! So negative interest rates are deflationary and they are tremendously negative for monetary velocity. For instance, in Japan they’re issuing huge amounts of high denomination Yen notes. That’s because of negative interest rates people don’t want to put their money in the bank and they don’t want to invest in Yen denominated bonds. That’s why I think eventually you are going to get helicopter money.

    Are you concerned about that?
    I’m not concerned about anything. My job is not to set policies. I’m not an economist or a politician or a central banker. I invest people’s money. So I’m agnostic as to what’s good and what’s bad in terms of policy. I just deal with it.

    So how do you deal with negative interest rates and central bank capitulation?
    It’s all about capital preservation. If you can get a few percent return in a deflationary environment you’re doing fine. Because if you invest in European government bonds your base case is that you are going to have a negative return. The same applies if you invest in Japanese government bonds. So gold is a high yielding investment. You are getting zero yield versus negative yields in the case of short term European bonds and most Japanese bonds. Gold is doing fine. It’s preserving capital in the US, it’s been making money over the last couple of years for European investors. That’s why I own gold. Because in a negative return environment anything that holds its value or makes a little is good. Also, US bonds look relatively good. You have a positive yield of 2 or 3% this year from a bond portfolio in the US. Of course, that’s not great for European investors because the dollar has been weakening.

    And what about stocks? Especially in the US, equities have staged a surprising comeback since the heavy turmoil at the beginning of the year.
    The US stock market seems egregiously overvalued versus other stock markets. Emerging markets look vastly better, Japan looks better and Europe does too. That’s because they’re all down. It’s remarkable that the US stock market is within about 2% of its all-time high and every other significant stock market is down substantially. Also fundamentally, it’s very hard to believe in US stocks. Earnings and profit margins are dropping and companies basically are borrowing money to pay dividends and to buy back shares. That’s completely non-productive borrowing and just creates a bigger debt burden. So it’s likely that you are going to see declines in the US stock market and since the correlations are so high this means that probably the junk bond market will go back down, too.

    There’s also a strong correlation between junk bonds and oil. What’s your take on the recent rally in crude?
    I predicted oil would make it easily to $ 40 and it did so very comfortably. But now it’s having a very hard time getting to $45. It bounces up a dollar, down a dollar and I think if oil is going back down to $ 38 people are going to be very concerned.

    Energy companies are playing an important role in the junk bond sector. What would oil at $ 38 mean for the credit markets?
    Just like oil, the high yield market has enjoyed the easy rally. I think it’s basically over. I don’t see how you are supposed to be all fond off high yield bonds, since they are facing enormous fundamental problems. I thought people would learn their lesson but the issuance in the years 2013/14 was vastly worse than the issuance in 2006/07. Also, in the bank loan market covenant lite issuance rose to 40% in 2006/07. In this cycle it climbed to 75%. The leverage in the high yield bond market is enormous and you’re about to have a substantial increase in defaults. I wouldn’t be surprised if the cumulative default rate in the next five years were going to be the highest in the history of the high yield bond market.

    What would be the consequences of that?
    We are now in a culture of default. There is no stigma about defaulting anymore. During the housing crash, homeowners walked away from their mortgages. That was the beginning of a massive tolerance of default. Today, people talk about Puerto Rico defaulting like it’s nothing. But if Puerto Rico defaults why won’t some clever person in Illinois say: «Let’s default, too! » Constitutionally, Illinois is not allowed to default, but Puerto Rico wasn’t either. For Illinois it just seems impossible to pay their pension obligations. And then, what about Houston, what about Chicago, what about Connecticut? I am surprised that people have lost their focus on the enormity of the debt problem. Remember, in 2010 and 2011 there was such a laser focus on the debt ceiling in the US and we were worried about Greece. Nobody is worried anymore. People are distracted by this negative interest rate experiment.

    That’s also interesting with respect to the presidential elections. In contrast to 2012, this time there is not much talk about national debt and budget cuts.
    What you see this time is only child’s play. The next election is going to be much more transformative than this one. Because in this election, both parties are kind of clinging to the belief that they can keep the genie in the bottle. But we’re on the cusp of big change and, unfortunately, it’s all wrapped up in generational problems. The big problem that is coming, of course, is the unfunded liabilities that have been promised to the baby boomers. According to one calculation, the unfunded liabilities of all these entitlements on a present value basis are $ 60 trillion in the United States, just at the federal level. But in this election, nobody is talking about addressing them. Donald Trump wants to keep social security the same, Bernie Sanders says make it even bigger, while Hillary Clinton represents more of the same.

    So who do you think will win the race for the white house?
    Trump is going to win. I think Clinton and Sanders are both very poor candidates. I know the polls are signaling the opposite. But the polls said the opposite four years ago, too.

    How would the financial markets react should Trump win?
    In the short term, Trump winning would be probably very positive for the economy. He says a lot of contradictory things and things that are not very specific. But he does say that he will build up the military and that he will build a wall at the border to Mexiko. If he wins he’s got at least to try those things. Also, he might initiate a big infrastructure program. What’s his campaign slogan? Make America great again. What that means is let’s go back to the past, let’s go back to the 1960s economy. So he might spend a lot of money on airports, roads and weapons. I think Trump would run up a huge deficit. Trump is very comfortable with debt. He’s a debt guy. His whole business has had a lot of debt over time and he has gone bankrupt with several enterprises. So I think you could have a debt-fuelled boom. But the overall debt level is already so high that you start to wonder what would happen after that.

    How do you explain that a guy like Trump might actually win the election?
    His popularity is very similar to the popularity of unconstrained bond funds. About two or three years ago, unconstrained bond funds became the most popular thing in the United States retail market and in the institutional market probably, too. Because when investors analyzed all the bond segments they were familiar with, they didn’t like what they saw. They didn’t like treasuries, they were scared of the Fed, they didn’t like traditional strategies. So, if everything you think you know looks unattractive, you go for something that you have no idea about. And that’s an unconstrained bond fund. The thinking was: «Don’t even tell me what you are doing, I do not want to know. Because if I know, I won’t like it. » The same is true with respect to the elections: «Don’t give me a traditional candidate. Give me someone who I have no idea what he is going to do» – and that’s basically Donald Trump.

    That shows that it is not easy to invest your money these days. What does it take in general to be a good investor?
    I made a name for myself primarily because in March of 2005 I was convinced that there would be a complete collapse of the credit market. When it was still hypothetical, people argued with me. They said that this would never happen. But I was right. So you have to find a center piece idea that will be important in driving the market. And you have to have an intuition about how other investors will react if you’re right and they wake up to that idea. Such opportunities do not happen very often. It is not always so obvious. So you have to pick your moments. In the financial markets, 80% of the time it’s a coin flip. But the other 20% of the time you have very high confidence and it’s not a coin flip. For instance, I don’t think the stock market is a coin flip. Especially in the United States stocks are very expensive, particularly low volatility stocks.

    What exactly is the problem with low volatility stocks?
    The riskiest things are now stocks and other investments perceived to be safe. One of the most popular categories in US investing are low volatility stock funds. But there is no such thing! If you think that a stock like Johnson & Johnson can’t go down, you’re wrong. And if people own funds that invest in stocks which they think are immune from decline and they start to decline, all hell breaks loose.

  • Albert Edwards Finally Blows Up: "I'm Not Really Sure How Much More Of This I Can Take"

    Earlier this week we described the personal come to non-GAAP Jesus moment of trading commentator Richard Breslow, who confessed in no uncertain terms that he has had it with endless central banking intervention: “a portfolio built to only withstand stress thanks to central bank intervention is one destined to blow-up spectacularly. The embedded flaw in this new logic is that central banks give investors perfect foresight. And nothing can go wrong… You don’t need to be a Taleb or Mandelbrot to calculate that we have been having once in a hundred year events on a regular basis for the last thirty years.

    Today it is another famous skeptic, SocGen’s Albert Edwards who has had enough and says he feels “utterly depressed” because  he has not “one scintilla of doubt that these central bankers will destroy the enfeebled world economy with their clumsy interventions and that political chaos will be the ugly result. The only people who will benefit are not investors, but anarchists who will embrace with delight the resulting chaos these policies will bring!”

    As he openly warns his readers :

    “I have long recognised my own contrariness (or is it bloody-mindedness) and hopefully put it to good use in my chosen profession. If you want the consensus bull-market cheerleading nonsense, readers know it is amply available elsewhere.”

    With that warning in place, here is why the man who popularized the deflationary “Ice Age” blows up.

    I am neither monetarist nor Keynesian. I see merit and demerit in both sides of a very fractious argument. But what I do know is when in the last few weeks I have heard that Janet Yellen sees no bubble in the US, when Ben Bernanke hones and restates his helicopter money speech, and when Mario Draghi says that the ECB’s policy of printing money and negative interest rates was working, I feel utterly depressed (I could also quote similar nonsense from Japan, the UK and China). I have not one scintilla of doubt that these central bankers will destroy the enfeebled world economy with their clumsy interventions and that political chaos will be the ugly result. The only people who will benefit are not investors, but anarchists who will embrace with delight the resulting chaos these policies will bring!

    We said in 2010 when the Fed launched QE2 that the ultimate outcome would be civil (or more than civil) war, so we thoroughly agree with Edwards “depression” because sadly he is right, but since stocks keep rising, few others seem to care.

    Edwards’ lament continues:

    I?m not really sure how much more of this I can take. So here we are 5, 6 or is it now 7 years into this economic recovery and it still remains pathetically weak. And so it should in the wake of one of the biggest private sector credit bubbles in history. The de-leveraging hangover was always going to be massive and so it is. Quick-fix monetary QE nonsense has made virtually no difference to the economic recoveries other than to inflate asset prices, make the rich richer, inequality worse and make Joe and Joanna Sixpack want to scream in rage. They are doing so by rejecting the establishment political parties and candidates at almost every electoral turn and seeking out more extreme alternatives at both ends of the political spectrum. And who can blame them apart from the chattering classes?

     

    I have just returned from Germany on a marketing trip. I absolutely agreed with their Finance Minister Schäuble when he blamed ECB loose money policies for contributing to the rise in the extremist right Alternative for Germany party. Schäuble, “said to Mario Draghi…be very proud: you can attribute 50% of the results of a party that seems to be new and successful in Germany to the design of this [monetary] policy,” And this is not just a German phenomena – it is a global one. The people are angry and they are lashing out. But central bankers have painted themselves into a corner with their overconfident rhetoric and monetary experiments. They have now committed us all to their road to perdition.

    Finally for those convinced in central bank ultraomnipotence, Edwards has the following parting words:

    As investors hung on the words of ECB chair Mario Draghi once again, I was reminded when reading the excellent monthly newsletter of Graham Summers at Phoenix Capital just how desperate Central Bankers will become once they are painted into a corner. Graham  writes “Whereas another Central Banker might state, “we are ready to act if warranted,” Mario Draghi says things like he’ll “do whatever it takes… and believe me it will be enough.” Bear in mind that famous statement was made entirely off-the-cuff as former Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner revealed.

     

    Geithner:

    [T]hings deteriorated again dramatically in the summer which ultimately led to him saying in August, these things I would never write, but he off-the-cuff – he was in London at a meeting with a bunch of hedge funds and bankers. He was troubled by how direct they were in Europe, because at that point all the hedge fund community thought that Europe was coming to an end. I remember him telling me [about] this afterwards, he was just, he was alarmed by that and decided to add to his remarks, and off-the-cuff basically made a bunch of statements like ‘we’ll do whatever it takes’. Ridiculous.

     

     

    Interviewer: This was just impromptu.

     

    Geithner: Totally impromptu?. I went to see Draghi and Draghi at that point, he had no plan. He had made this sort of naked statement of this stuff. But they stumbled into it. (Source: Financial Times)”

     

    Here is former Secretary of the Treasury, Timothy Geithner, stating openly that Mario Draghi had “no plan” and was simply bluffing when he claimed, “we’ll do whatever it takes.” Lets not kid ourselves, these “guys” are literally making it up as they go along!

    There is little more to add, suffice that all of the above explains the relentless thrust by the mainstream media to pain central bankers as nothing less than supermen, or in the case of Roger Lowenstein’s famous op-ed, “Heroes.”

  • Valued At $16 It Sold For $68 Million "In 7200 Seconds" – The Inside Story Of Vancouver's Wildest Property Deal

    For the past four months we have been closely following the sheer bubble panic, if not outright insanity, that has gripped the Vancouver housing market (here, here, here, here, here and many more) which has been over the past year, converted into the personal offshore piggybank of wealthy Chinese oligarchs seeking to park laundered money outside of their home nation. On the way, the story took an odd detour into the outright bizarre when we reported the curious story of the Chinese tycoon found “chopped up into 100 pieces” in a Vancouver mansion.

    But nothing compares to this fascinating story reported first by the South China Morning Post, in which the paper’s investigation revealed the obscure transactions behind a commercial real estate frenzy, including a two-hour stampede by investors desperate to pay C$60m for a site valued at C$16m. Then, a month after taking ownership, they resold it for C$68m.

    Presenting, the inside story of Vancouver’s wildest property deal, gone in 7,200 seconds

    Julia Lau (inset) boasted on social media that the October sale of C$60 million
    worth of shares in 1059 and 1075 Nelson Street (main picture) in Vancouver
    had been sold out to investors in “7,200 seconds”.

    It was in fall last year that Bruno and Peter Wall received an offer too good to refuse.

    The prominent Vancouver property developers behind Wall Financial Corporation had spent C$16.8 million (HK$102 million) to buy two ageing walk-up apartment blocks on adjacent lots on Nelson Street in 2013. They had big plans for the downtown site: a glittering 60-storey residential skyscraper, taking advantage of the location within the city’s West End Community Plan, where a building could rise 168 metres tall under new zoning. The project was dubbed “Nelson on the Park” and the Walls turned to favourite designer Chris Doray to come up with what they hoped would be a new Vancouver landmark.

    But now a consortium of investors was proposing something even more remarkable.

    They would pay the Walls C$60 million for the site alone, which had just been valued at C$15.6 million by BC Assessment. The huge profit was impossible to resist, and the sale was completed in late January.

    Doray, a 25-year veteran of the Vancouver development scene whose design has now been shelved, said he was “astonished” by the transaction, which he said set a new benchmark for commercial real estate in the city.

    “The price on this block of land has now thrown everybody in the industry out of whack,” said Doray. “The property is worth, what, C$20 million, and somebody pays C$60million? One wonders what’s going on. Is this New York? Is this Hong Kong?”

    1059 Nelson Street in downtown Vancouver, where property developers
    Bruno and Peter Wall had once hoped to build a 
    60-story skyscraper.

    The scale of the purchase, orchestrated by Sun Commercial Real Estate (Suncom) – a firm that specialises in pooling wealthy investors from Vancouver’s Chinese immigrant community – was exceptional enough.

    The now-shelved design for ‘Nelson on the Park’.

    But an investigation by the South China Morning Post now reveals the strange and frantic backdrop to the transaction – including a two-hour stampede by Suncom’s investors, desperate for a slice of the deal. It is a transaction that also sheds light on the rush of Chinese money fuelling Vancouver’s soaring real estate market.

    The Post interviewed key players and pored over land titles, company directorship and address changes, and English and Chinese social media postings to understand a transaction that looked, from the outside, incomprehensible – and potentially disastrous.

    But Suncom, whose activities are being reviewed by the BC Securities Commission, knew exactly what it was doing.

    Because on February 29, one month after taking ownership of the Nelson Street site, the Suncom consortium flipped it, corporate records show.

    The price was C$68 million. And the Post met the new buyer, a rich Chinese immigrant named Gao Shan, last month.

     

    ‘Prepare the bank draft tomorrow. The shares will be sold out on Monday’

    The blocks of apartments at 1059 and 1075 Nelson St could not be more nondescript. On a recent afternoon, there was a broken ground-floor window at weary-looking 1075, a Canadian flag draped as a makeshift curtain. Next door, at 1059, a waft of marijuana smoke drifted out of an open window.

     But as she considered the apartments last October 8, Suncom’s self-professed vice-president, Julia Lau Chi Yuen, told her Facebook friends she was feeling excited.

    Julia Lau (centre) with performers at a Suncom party last July 19.

    Once among the most successful realtors in Vancouver, the Hong Kong immigrant had been prohibited from practising the previous January, after voluntarily surrendering her license ahead of a disciplinary hearing by the Real Estate Council of BC.

    Nine months later, she was busy rounding up investors for 1075 and 1059 Nelson Street, the site still owned by the Walls, which Suncom was promoting as “1065 Nelson St”. Lau was a good fit with Suncom, having fostered close connections with the city’s rich Chinese immigrant buyers; in a 2013 interview, she told the SCMP they made up 80 per cent of her customers and later boasted on her website of selling more than C$560 million worth of homes from 2009 to 2014.

    In a Facebook post that Thursday, Lau claimed “we just bought” 1065 Nelson St. Suncom was offering C$60 million worth of “shares” in the property that were poised to go on sale the next week – and they would go fast.

    “Whoever want [sic] to invest has to prepare the deposit with bank draft tomorrow. The shares will be sold out on Monday,” she predicted.

    “The shares will be sold out on Monday”. An October 8, 2015,
    Facebook posting by Suncom’s self-professed vice president Julia Lau.

    It was no idle brag.

    The Nelson Street sale was not the biggest that Suncom had promoted, but with its prominent downtown location and massive price-to-valuation mark-up, the transaction represented a culmination of efforts.

    On February 21 last year, Suncom had pitched C$30 million worth of shares in two lots at Tisdall Street on Vancouver’s Westside, that had a BC Assessment valuation of only C$11.7million. Investors snapped up the shares in one day, Lau said on Facebook. Land titles show 5826 and 5860 Tisdall Street are now owned by a holding company (“5826&5860 Tisdall Holding Ltd”) whose directors are Suncom president Davidson Guo and Denise Dan Wei She.

    A Chinese language flyer posted online by Julia Lau declares that shares in
    1065 Nelson Street sold out in just “7,200 seconds”

    Then, on May 22, Suncom put the site of Richmond’s Silver City entertainment complex up for grabs, with C$103 million worth of shares selling out in one week. Guo and She are also the directors of the company (“14111 Entertainment Blvd Investments Ltd”) that now owns that sprawling 10-hectare site.

    Meanwhile, capital outflows from China were reaching a fever pitch, as companies and individuals scrambled to send money overseas last year in record volumes ahead of a feared yuan devaluation. The Canadian dollar was also plummeting, making Canadian property relatively more affordable to yuan earners, and average detached house prices in metro Vancouver soared more than 40 per cent last year, hitting an average of C$1.8 million.

    Peer-reviewed research had previously indicated how Vancouver’s property market had decoupled from the local economy, and was instead being steered by recent immigrants’ foreign earnings and wealth. The vast majority of those rich immigrants have been Chinese.

    And so, against this heady backdrop on the morning of October 12, Suncom threw open the gates for the Nelson Street sale.

    The result was nothing short of a frenzy.

    “The 60million dollars project at 1065 Nelson St Vancouver’s shares sold out in two hours! Thank you very much for the supporting from all my clients!” Lau announced on Facebook on October 14.

    A Chinese-language flyer on Suncom letterhead she posted at the same time trumpeted the sale as her “perfect success”.

    “Sale of C$60 million property project completed in 7,200 seconds,” it said. “My perfect success – thanks to the strong support and love of shareholders. My only return – the maximum returns I can bring to you.”

    The Post has no evidence that Lau received remuneration for providing real estate services while unlicensed, as prohibited under the Real Estate Services Act; her Facebook posting from October 14 suggests that she claims not to have been paid. Nor does the Post suggest that Lau was selling shares in real property at the Nelson St site, as opposed to shares in a company that owned the site. Neither Lau nor her lawyer, Joe Carangi, responded to SCMP questions about her role in the Nelson Street sale and her other activities on behalf of Suncom.

    “I’m so proud to call myself the vice president!” Julia Lau at a Suncom
    party in photos she posted online last September. 
    The firm has since
    claimed she was never an employee or 
    officer of the firm

    Fundraising tactics used in deals involving Suncom have previously drawn the attention of the BC Securities Commission, which in January announced it was reviewing the firm’s activities, partly in response to an SCMP article about whether the firm was involved in crowdfunding. In BC, crowdfunding – the mass online recruitment of investors – is limited to C$250,000 per project and a maximum of two projects per year. Individual investors are limited to C$1,500 per project. The BCSC told the Post this month that the review of Suncom was ongoing.

    In a statement issued on March 12 via lawyer James Carpick, the company said that “as far as Suncom knows, Ms Lau was never involved in ‘crowdfunding’.”

    But the firm distanced itself from Lau, saying that she was never formally employed by Suncom, but was “allowed to use the title ‘Vice President’ for a few months in the summer of 2015”. “Suncom terminated her use of that title, although she may have placed ads that used it that could not be recalled instantly, and she may have used it for a longer time than she was permitted to do, but, if that happened, this was not something within Suncom’s control or done with its approval,” the statement said.

    Suncom refused to discuss the identity of its investors, and whether they qualified for exemptions from prospectus-issuance, normally required in the case of securities sales.

    As for Suncom’s plans for the site, the firm revealed that it had “no ongoing involvement” in the property.

    The site had already been resold – and with speed that suggested negotiations were underway even before the purchase from the Walls had closed at the end of January.

     

    Who owns 1065 Nelson Street?

    Keeping up with the changing ownership of the Nelson Street site has been no simple matter.

    The changes do not show up in land titles for the two lots, because they remain to this day in the hands of Nelson Street Residences Ltd, a firm set up by the Walls in 2013 which was added to the titles in March 2014.

    Instead, it is ownership of Nelson Street Residences that has changed hands, thereby avoiding property transfer taxes of C$1.78 million for Suncom’s consortium. The share-transfer tactic is common among commercial real estate deals and perfectly lawful.

    These transfers are depicted in directorship and mailing address changes for the company, which switched on January 30 from Wall Financial Corp’s office, to a multimillion-dollar penthouse in the downtown Shangri-La Estates. The new director was named as “Peter She”; Suncom refused to discuss his connection, if any, to the firm, and Peter She did not respond to SCMP questions delivered via a registered letter that was accepted at his address.

    The land title for 1075 Nelson Street, obtained in January 2016, lists the
    owner as Nelson Street Residences, whose address is
    the Burrard Street
    offices of Wall Financial Corp

    A corporate search for Nelson Street Residences, conducted on February 10,
    2016, lists Peter She as the new director, with the mailing address switching
    to a penthouse in the Shangri-La Estates on West Georgia St.

    However realtor David Taylor, the Colliers International vice-president who acted as a consultant to the Walls on the sale, confirmed that they had sold the Nelson Street site to Suncom’s consortium for C$60 million.

    Joanne Liu, vice-president of Wall Financial, said she was prohibited from discussing the sale by a confidentiality clause, although she confirmed that Peter She did not represent the Walls.

    In any case, Peter She did not last long in his position at Nelson Street Residences, because on February 29, directorship again changed, to a man named Gao Shan, whose address was listed as an accountancy office on West Broadway.

    By keeping his name off the land titles, Gao legally avoided paying more than C$2million in property transfer taxes.

    Another corporate search, conducted on March 24, shows that on February
    29, 2016, Peter She was replaced by Gao Shan as the
    sole director of
    Nelson Street Residences, with its address moving
    from She’s downtown
    penthouse to an accountancy office on West
    Broadway.

     

    ‘The whole industry is astonished’

    Chris Doray, who designed Vancouver’s Wall Centre and was again commissioned by Bruno and Peter Wall for the ill-starred Nelson on the Park project, has watched the site change hands with a mounting sense of disbelief.

    His innovative design for the site, nicknamed the “pixelated tower”, was shortlisted at the 2015 World Architecture Festival in Singapore. It features a lattice-like façade that seems to dissolve into the sky.

    But Doray now considers the plans shelved. “[They] weren’t so much interested in the project, but more in the land, as an investment,” Doray said of the consortium that bought the site off the Walls.

    The widespread industry rumour – since confirmed by the SCMP – that the site had already been flipped seemed to validate Doray’s suspicions that the previous sale was a purely “speculative purchase”.

    “I cannot believe that people will pay that kind of money for a plot of land”.
    Chris Doray, designer of the shelved “Nelson on
    the Park” skyscraper.

    A source familiar with the initial C$60 million sale said “this is Chinese money, looking for an increase in value of the land”. “It seems crazy to think that someone might pay more, say a year from now, but it’s happening all the time,” the source said apparently without realising that a subsequent sale had already taken place.

    Doray said Wall Financial had attempted to persuade its buyers to press on with the skyscraper project, which he said had been “quite well received by the City” last summer.

    “It was there, pretty much ready to go, but they were not interested. They just sold it to another party,” he said.

    He said that in a quarter century of involvement in Vancouver’s real estate scene he had seen nothing like the transactions linked to the Nelson Street lot. “I cannot believe that people will pay that kind of money for a plot of land. The whole industry is astonished.”

    The now-shelved design for ‘Nelson on the Park’, and its  “pixelated” roof.

    Meeting Mr Gao

    In a strange twist, the new buyer of the site, Gao Shan, shares his name with a well-known Chinese embezzler who lived as a fugitive in Vancouver before surrendering in 2012 to authorities in the mainland, where he is less than two years into a 15-year jail term.

    A third Gao Shan, meanwhile, is listed by Interpol as a fraud suspect and international fugitive.

    And so the SCMP requested to meet the director of Nelson Street Residences, to confirm that he was not acting on behalf of either of his dubious namesakes by using their identity documents. An April 4 meeting took place at the office of Gao’s accountant, Jonathan Wong.

    Gao, tanned and dressed casually in a long-sleeved polo shirt, bore no resemblance to either of his namesakes, who are aged 50 and 52; he appeared younger than both. “[There are] many people named Gao Shan,” he joked in English, glancing at the Interpol notice.

    Wong handed over his client’s BC drivers’ licence as identification, but the date of birth had been covered with an opaque piece of tape, which the SCMP asked to be removed. Wong was reluctant, citing concerns about identity theft, but Gao waved away his worries and the tape was briefly peeled off to show a 1971 birthdate matching neither that of the convicted embezzler nor the fugitive fraud suspect.

    The SCMP makes no suggestion of any wrongdoing by Gao or Wong; nor does it suggest any connection between the Nelson Street Residences director and either of the two men who share his name.

    Wong was keen for the meeting to end but the SCMP asked Gao for an on-the-record interview. The accountant demurred, but Gao gave a grin. “One question only,” Gao said, holding up a finger.

    Why would Gao pay C$68 million for the Nelson Street properties, when this was so far in excess of the valuation? After a brief discussion in Putonghua, Wong answered on Gao’s behalf, without disputing the sum.

    It is an investment that Mr Gao sees will give him a good return, and that’s why he made the purchase. I hate to give such a general answer but that’s how business decisions are made. If it’s not going to make money, he’s not going to invest,” Wong said.

    The Post managed one follow-up question, asking Gao if he intended to develop the site. “Yes, this is a development site, it’s for development,” said Wong, after a nod from Gao. Wong also allowed that his client be described as a property developer. “I don’t believe there is anything more,” Wong said, and the meeting was adjourned.

    In a subsequent email, Wong said: “Historical price and government assessment values were irrelevant in setting the purchase price of the two properties. Only the projected net profit was relevant.” He added that “you may be amazed” by checking the potential development returns on the site.

    Designer Doray, who understands the potential of the site as well as anyone, isn’t so sure. “If the developer pays C$60 million for the piece of land, can you imagine what any condos on it would sell for, if they finally finish this project?” Doray said, laughing. “It will be untouchable – well, for the local market. It could only be an elite group of people at this price.”

  • "A Scramble For Gold Has Begun"

    Authored by James Rickards, originally posted at The Telegraph,

    For a century, elites have worked to eliminate monetary gold, both physically and ideologically.

    This began in 1914, with the UK’s entry into the First World War. The Bank of England wanted to suspend convertibility of bank notes into gold. Keynes counselled wisely that the bank should not do so. Gold was finite, but credit elastic.

    By staying on gold, the UK could maintain its credit, and finance the war effort. This transpired. The House of Morgan organised massive credits for the UK, and none for Germany. This finance was crucial, and sustained the UK until the US abandoned neutrality and tipped the military balance against Germany. 

    Despite formal convertibility of sterling to gold, the Bank of England successfully discouraged actual conversion.

    Gold sovereigns were withdrawn from circulation and turned into 400-ounce bars. This form of bullion limited gold ownership to the wealthy, and confined gold’s presence to vaults. A similar disappearance of gold as a circulating currency occurred in the US. 

    The price of gold has jumped in recent years Credit: London Metal Exchange

     

    In 1933, US President Franklin Roosevelt issued an executive order making ownership of gold a crime. FDR relied on the Trading with the Enemy Act of 1917 as statutory authority for this edict. Since the US was not at war in 1933, the enemy was presumably the American people. 

    In 1971, US President Richard Nixon ended convertibility of US dollars into gold by trading partners of the US. Closing the gold window was said by Nixon to be temporary. Forty-five years later the window is still closed. 

    In 1973, the G7 nations, and the IMF demonetised gold. IMF members were no longer required to hold gold reserves. Gold was now just another commodity. The view of the monetary elites was that gold was dead. 

    Yet, like Banquo’s ghost, gold insists on its seat at the monetary table. The US holds 8,133 tonnes of gold. The members of the eurozone and ECB hold 10,788 tonnes.  China reports holdings of 1,788 tonnes, but actual holdings are closer to 4,000 tonnes, based on reliable data from Hong Kong exports and Chinese mining.

    Russia has 1,447 tonnes, and has been acquiring over 200 tonnes per year. Mexico, Kazakhstan, and Vietnam, among other nations, have added to their gold reserves recently. (Pity the UK, which sold more than half its gold at rock- bottom prices between 1999 and 2002). 

    After decades as net sellers of gold, central banks became net buyers in 2010. A scramble for gold has begun. 

    What drives gold’s new allure? In some cases, central banks are constructing a hedge against US dollar inflation.

    China has $3.2 trillion in reserves, over half of which is denominated in US dollars, mostly US Treasury notes. The dollar has no greater friend than China because its wealth is held in dollars. Still, inflation looms. China cannot dump its Treasury notes; the Treasury market is deep, but not that deep.

    If Chinese selling of Treasuries became a threat to US interests, a US president could freeze Chinese accounts with a phone call. 

    The Chinese know this. They are stuck with their dollars. They fear, rightly, that the US will inflate its way out of its $19 trillion mountain of debt.

    China’s solution is to buy gold. If dollar inflation emerges, China’s Treasury holdings will devalue, but the dollar price of its gold will soar. A large gold reserve is a prudent diversification.  Russia’s motives are geopolitical. Gold is the model 21st century weapon for financial wars.

    The US controls dollar payments systems and, with help from European allies, can eject adversaries from the international payments system called Swift. Gold is immune to such assaults. Physical gold in your custody cannot be hacked, erased, or frozen. Moving gold is a simple way for Russia to settle accounts without US interference.

    Countries are also acquiring gold in advance of a collapse of the international monetary system. The system has collapsed three times in the past century. Each time, major financial powers came together to write new rules.

    This happened at Genoa in 1922, Bretton Woods in 1944, and the Smithsonian Institution in 1971.  The international monetary system has a shelf life of about 30 years.

    It has been 30 years since the Louvre Accord (an upgrade to the Smithsonian Agreement). This does not mean the system will collapse tomorrow, but no one should be surprised if it does. When the financial powers next convene to reform the system, there will be no appetite for the dollar’s exorbitant privilege.

    The Chinese yuan and Russia ruble are not true reserve currencies. The only feasible benchmarks for a new system are the IMF’s world money, called special drawing rights, and gold. 

    Critics claim there is not enough gold to support the financial system. That’s nonsense. There is always enough gold, it’s just a matter of price.

    Based on the M1 money supplies of China, the eurozone, and the US, and with 40pc gold backing, the implied non-deflationary price of gold is $10,000 per ounce.

    At that price, a stable gold-backed monetary system could be sustained.  When it comes to monetary elites, watch what they do, not what they say.

    While elites disparage gold at every opportunity, they are buying it, hoarding it, and preparing for the day when one’s gold determines one’s seat at the table of systemic reform.

    It’s past time to claim your seat with an asset allocation to physical gold.

  • Depression, Debasement, & 100 Years Of Monetary Mismanagement

    From the archives of Bill Bonner at Bonner & Partners (annotated by Acting-Man.com's Pater Tenebrarum),

    Lost From the Get-Go

    There must be some dark corner of Hell warming up for modern, mainstream economists. They helped bring on the worst bubble ever… with their theories of efficient markets and modern portfolio management. They failed to see it for what it was. Then, when trouble came, they made it worse. But instead of atoning in a dank cell, these same economists strut onto the stage to congratulate themselves.

     

    Keynes

    The scalawag himself. Keynes provided governments with the “scientific” fig leaf fore interventionism that economists had previously denied them. The cost in terms of economic and technological progress is incalculable.

     

    The Greatest Depression that could so easily have happened in 2009 but did not is the tribute that the world owes to economics”, wrote Arvind Subramanian in The Financial Times.

     

    Arvind

    Arvind Subramanian: congratulating mainstream economists (a sub-set of society that includes him) for failing to foresee a mess their own advice has produced. The chutzpa of this guy is really admirable. He is of course correct that it is difficult to make forecasts (in fact, economics as a science has nothing to do with making predictions), but anyone who didn’t see the 2008 crisis coming had to be blind as a fricking bat. Even housewives could see it coming, but a very long list of prominent professional economists and “policymakers” evidently couldn’t. Fine, but these are the same people that insist that they know what to do about it. That is decidedly not so. They have now produced what will turn out to be an even greater mess.

     

    We were lost from the get-go, trying to interpret the sentence. It is as tangled and puerile as the staggering conceit behind it. Then, Mr. Subramanian sets up the stage props:

    “In 2008, as the global financial crisis unfolded, the reputation of economics as a discipline and economists as useful policy practitioners seemed to be irredeemably sunk. Queen Elizabeth captured the mood when she asked pointedly why no one (in particular economists) had spotted the crisis coming. And there is no doubt that, notwithstanding the few Cassandras who had correctly prophesied gloom and doom, the profession had failed colossally…”

    He then brushes off the Queen’s very sensible question:

    “But crises will always happen, and even if there is a depressing periodicity to them as Professors Reinhart and Rogoff have catalogued, their timing, form, and provenance will elude prognostication.”

     

    Queen_2

    The Queen, here seen shortly after being apprised of Mr. Subramanian’s excuse in the FT

     

    Of course, the record doesn’t show that the crisis eluded prognostication; any dope could have seen it coming. But the prognosticators who had contributed so mightily to the crisis had blinded themselves with their own claptrap. Still, Mr. Subramanian figures that they “vindicated” the profession in the way they responded to the crisis.

    “On monetary policy, Bernanke was true to the word he gave to Milton Friedman on the occasion of his 90th birthday: ‘Regarding the Great Depression. You’re right, we did it. We’re very sorry. But thanks to you, we won’t do it again.’

     

    Bernanke, the pre-eminent student of the Great Depression, found conventional and some very unconventional ways of not doing ‘it’ again. At the peak of his interventions, the U.S. Fed came to resemble the Soviet Gosbank, more a micro-allocator of credit than a steward of macroeconomic policy.”

    It probably wasn’t the point he intended to make, but the Fed does resemble the Soviet era Gosbank – manipulating, meddling, and micro-managing the economy toward destruction.

     

     

    Gosbank_Building_(Rostov-on-Don)4

    Gosbank building in Rostov-on-Don (??????????????? ???? ????, Gosudarstvenny bank SSSR, State Bank of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics). It is interesting that Mr. Subramanian didn’t even bat an eye over the Fed’s similarities with Gosbank. Of course these similarities didn’t just pop into the open on occasion of the 2008 crisis. “Gosbank” is precisely what the Fed is. It is a socialistic State-run central planning agency. What else is it supposed to be? Don’t be misled by the often stated assertion that it is a privately owned cartel. Its charter is from the government and its board of governors is government-appointed. It is the link between the banking cartel and the State, but it would not exist or have any power without the State.

     

    Led by a Scalawag 

    Meanwhile, Congress is doing some Soviet style management too; it is now owner of the nation’s largest automobile company and its largest insurance business:

    “They took their cue from the writings of the academic scribbler of yore – Lord Keynes – and provided massive public demand for goods and services where private demand had collapsed…”

     

    wolf

    Chief economics quack of the FT, Martin Wolf (another one of those who didn’t see it coming, but know all the solutions). It is no surprise that he invoked the scalawag Keynes.

     

    We were still gasping for air when, on the 30th of December, columnist Martin Wolf called upon Keynes’ ghost again. He, too, shuddered to think how horrible things would have been if the financial authorities had not taken resolute action:

    “We could not, in such times, even take the survival of civilization itself for granted. Never before had I felt more strongly the force of John Maynard Keynes’ toast ‘to the economists – who are the trustees, not of civilization, but of the possibility of civilization.’”

    Is there any doubt that Keynes was a scalawag? Civilization flourished for thousands of years before anyone made a living as an economist. Crises came and went.

    In the 19th century, for example, there were panics followed by depressions in 1819, 1837, 1857, 1873, and 1893. Not one of the depressions seemed worthy of the “great” modifier. Hundreds of banks failed. Civilization didn’t seem to care. The rich and powerful took their lumps along with everyone else; most people enjoyed watching them go down. Business went on.

     

    436px-Fed_Reserve

    The ominous newspaper headline that announced the passage of the Federal Reserve Act. A “constructive act to aid business”?. It took just 15 years under the stewardship of this “constructive” agency to bring about one of the greatest economic catastrophes in history.

     

    In 1913, on Christmas Eve, Congress passed the Federal Reserve Act, setting up America’s central bank. Only then did economists get their hands on the economy’s throat. The dollar was worth about the same thing it had been worth 100 years before.

    Now, almost a hundred years later, it is worth only 3 cents. And only 16 years after economists took their positions at the Federal Reserve came a depression worse than anything the nation had ever seen – at least, it was worse after government economists finished with it.

     

    Purchasing power

    After the dollar had been stable for a century, it was decided that central planners could do better. This is the result, along with far weaker economic growth and far greater inequality – click to enlarge.

     

    The Great Depression may have been an accident, but the debasement of the dollar certainly was not. It was a matter of policy. Economists, led by Keynes, had the idea that they could spur the economy forward by creating phantom demand – in the form of additional units of purchasing power. The gold standard stood in the way; it was abandoned like a bad neighborhood.

    First, temporarily, then partially, then, in 1971, completely. The first consumer credit boom came in the ’20s… leading to the Great Depression. By the 1980s, 50 years later, Americans had lost their residual fear of debt. Consumer credit boomed again.

    Then it bubbled. Economists didn’t understand what was going on. They rarely do. But they had created a hundred-year flood of consumer debt. Now, they congratulate themselves; households sink… but civilization floats.

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Today’s News 22nd April 2016

  • Retailer Bankruptcies Are Hailing Down on the US Economy

    Wolf Richter   www.wolfstreet.com

    Another retailer is heading for bankruptcy. This time Aeropostale, with 800 teen-clothing stores, after three years in a row of losses. It’s “preparing to reorganize under a Chapter 11 bankruptcy, and could file as soon as this month, according to people familiar with the matter,” Bloomberg reported today.

    Upon Bloomberg’s propitious report, Aeropostale shares plunged 28% to 15 cents. It has been a penny stock since last September. The New York Stock Exchange, which had threatened the company with delisting, removed the stock before 2 p.m. today, and trading of the shares has been suspended.

    Bloomberg:

    Aeropostale is trying to work out a loan to finance its operations during the bankruptcy process, according to the people. A deal to avert a filing or find a buyer also could still emerge, they said.

    Which is what just about all collapsing retailers are valiantly trying to do. And often to no avail.

    In March, Aeropostale had already announced that it would “evaluate strategic alternatives.” It hired Stifel Financial Corp. to work on a sale or restructuring. According to Bloomberg, it’s also working with law firm Weil Gotshal & Manges LLP and FTI Consulting, “people familiar with the matter said last week.”

    As in so many cases, there is a private equity angle. PE firm Sycamore Partners owns a large state in Aeropostale and is its main lender. But they have been embroiled in a feud. Sycamore also owns Aeropostale’s key clothing supplier, MGF.

    In 2013, when Sycamore acquired its stake in Aeropostale and lent if $150 million, it obtained two seats on the board and set up the supply deal with MGF. Bloomberg:

    At the time, Sycamore was seen as possible savior for the troubled chain. Some investors expected the investment firm to eventually acquire the rest of Aeropostale, helping redeem a stock that has been declining since 2010.

    But that didn’t work out. These hopeful investors lost their shirts. Sycamore’s two directors left Aeropostale’s board. In March, Aeropostale said that MGF has stopped delivering merchandise in violation of the terms of its agreement, leaving the retailer short on merchandise. MGF, as Bloomberg put it, said “it was merely seeking protection from Aeropostale.”

    There are numerous other 1990s and 2000s brands that didn’t quite make the transition in the relentlessly tough US retail environment of squeezed consumers, fickle and picky teens, smart women, shoppo-phobic men, inscrutable millennials, and a brutal shift to online sales.

    And now their bankruptcies are hailing down on the US economy with increasing intensity. Here are a few standouts in 2016 and 2015. Note the PE firms behind many of them:

    April 16, 2016: Vestis Retail Group, the operator of sporting goods retailers Eastern Mountain Sports (camping, hiking, skiing, adventure sports), Bob’s Stores (family clothing and shoes), and Sport Chalet (general sporting goods), filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. It will close all 56 stores and stop online sales.

    In the filing, it blamed the going-out-of-business sales at “certain Sports Authority locations,” plus the weather, which had been too warm, and trouble with switching to a new software platform. It’s owned by private equity firm Versa Capital Management LLC.

    April 7, 2016: Pacific Sunwear of California, clothing retailer with nearly 600 stores and derailed ambitions of skate-and-surf cool, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. PE firm Golden Gate Capital, a lender to the company, agreed to convert over 65% of its loan into equity of the reorganized company and add another $20 million in financing. Wells Fargo agreed to provide $100 million of debtor-in-possession financing.

    March 2, 2016: Sports Authority filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. It said it would close 140 of its 450 stores, including all stores in Texas. In 2006, it had been taken over in a leveraged buyout by a group of PE firms led by Leonard Green & Partners [Another Private-Equity LBO Queen Bites the Dust].

    February 2, 2016: Hancock Fabrics filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, for the second time. It closed 70 of its retail sewing and crafting stores. Its inventories are being liquidated with going-out-of-business sales at the remaining 185 stores.

    January 16, 2015: Wet Seal, teen fashion retailer, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

    October 2015: American Apparel filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, after years of all sorts of sordid turmoil – and losses since 2009.

    In 2014, hedge fund Standard General entered into a deal with the company’s “controversial” founder and former CEO Dov Charney. The deal raised his stake to 43% but gave the hedge fund a big block of the shares as collateral. The hedge fund and some other investors also own a big part of American Apparel bonds and thus control the bankruptcy negotiations. The hedge fund expects to emerge owning about a quarter of the restructured company’s debt and about 5% of its new equity.

    September, 2015: Quiksilver, surfwear retailer, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. In January, 2016, it emerged from bankruptcy and is now controlled by PE firm Oaktree Capital.

    June, 2015: Anna’s Linens filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

    April 2015: Frederick’s of Hollywood filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

    February 2015: RadioShack filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. In May 2015, Standard General took control of it in a bankruptcy auction.

    February 2015: Cache Inc., women’s dress and formal-wear retailer, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

    January 2015: Body Central Corp, women’s clothing retailer, after announcing it was exploring a Chapter 11 bankruptcy, ended up not filing, but closed its 265 stores under a Florida process called “an assignment for the benefit of creditors.”

    These are the ugly skid marks of the “end of the credit cycle,” as it’s called, an era when defaults and bankruptcies suddenly re-materialize, and when investors get to eat big losses in what they thought were conservative investments.

    In March, total commercial bankruptcy filings by corporations of all sizes and other business entities jumped 25% from a year ago to a total of 3,351, with the two biggest culprits being energy and, well, retail. Read…  US Commercial Bankruptcies Suddenly Soar

  • Is Hillary Clinton The Democrats' Richard Nixon?

    Authored by Eric Zuesse,

    Richard Nixon’s similarities to Hillary Clinton are remarkable:

    1: Both were highly successful politicians who had exceptionally negative net-approval ratings from the U.S. public, but were viewed highly favorably by the voters within their own Party.

    2: Both were unsuccessful in their first run for the Presidency, but managed to come back and ran considerably more successful campaigns the second time around.

    3: Both were highly distrusted, except by the voters within their own Party.

    4: Both went into their Presidential campaign years (especially the second time around) as being “the candidate with experience.”

    5: Both were war-hawks and proponents of a big military, but were also liberals on social policies and regulatory policies (for example, Nixon signed into law the National Environmental Policy Act, several environmental initiatives including the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts, the Mammal Marine Protection Act, and the creation of the Environmental Protection Agency; and, he started the Earned-Income Tax Credit, which "now lifts more children out of poverty than any other government program”).

    6: Whereas Nixon, running during the Cold War against the sitting Vice President Hubert Humphrey in 1968, lied that he had ‘a secret plan to end the Vietnam war' (he actually had — and applied — a secret plan to extend the Vietnam war), and he won the Presidency on the basis of that lie; Hillary Clinton, running against the anti-restoration-of-the-Cold-War progressive Bernie Sanders in 2016, lies by saying that she has a plan to end the war in Russia-allied Syria. Sanders says: “Of course Assad is a terrible dictator. But I think we have got to get our foreign policies and priorities right. The immediate — it is not Assad who is attacking the United States. It is ISIS. And ISIS is attacking France and attacking Russian airliners. The major priority, right now, in terms of our foreign and military policy should be the destruction of ISIS.” Clinton says an emphatic no to that: "Assad has killed, by last count, about 250,000 Syrians. The reason we are in the mess we're in, that ISIS has the territory it has, is because of Assad.” So, she is promising regime-change in Syria and saying that it’s the prerequisite to defeating ISIS — which is an absurd lie, since ISIS, and Al Qaeda, and all the other jihadist groups who have flocked into Syria to overthrow and replace Assad, are certainly not the way to defeat ISIS, nor to defeat the other jihadist groups there, all of which are anti-Assad, as is Clinton herself. Clearly, then, her ‘plan’ to win the war in Syria is, essentially, to replace Assad with jihadists — to whom the U.S. is sending thousands of tons of weapons. Her Big Lie there is merely stupider than Nixon’s (it’s transparently stupid, because both she and ISIS aim, above all, to overthrow Assad), but it’s just as much a lie about war-and-peace as was Nixon’s ’secret plan to end the Vietnam war’; and, in that sense, it is remarkably similar and (like Nixon’s lie was) can be believed only by liar-trusting fools, including virtually all members of the candidate’s own Party, plus a large percentage of political independents.

    7: Both Richard Nixon and Hillary Clinton were/are famous for being secretive, and for distrusting everyone except his/her proven-loyal personal entourage — loyalty is a higher value to them than is any other. They are paranoid — very us-versus-‘them’ — and all-too-willing to use unethical means of defeating ‘them’ (not really the American people’s foreign ‘enemy’, but, above all, their own domestic “enemies-list”).

    8: Both Nixon and Clinton famously use curse-words profusely in private, and treat their subordinates like trash, and rule them by fear.

    9: Both of them had/have established records backing coups abroad, in order to impose the will of America’s President, no matter how bloody (such as the coups that overthrew Mossadegh in Iran in 1953 and Allende in Chile in 1973, and the coups that overthrew Zelaya in Honduras in 2009, and Yanukovych in Ukraine in 2014).

    *  *  *

  • Denver Schools To Arm Guards With Military-Style Rifles

    Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

    Are children safe in public schools?

    If the answer seems pretty obvious, it is confirmation that society has definitely gone to extremes that would not have been recognizable in past decades of American history.

    Now Denver-area schools are becoming the first to guard their student populations with military-style semiautomatic rifles, and things certainly appear to be escalating.

    via NBC News/AP:

    A suburban Denver school district is arming its security staff with military-style semiautomatic rifles in case of a school shooting or other violent attack, a move that appears unprecedented even as more schools arm employees in response to mass violence elsewhere.

     

    The guards, who are not law enforcement officers, already carry handguns.

     

    […]

     

    The move raised new questions about how far school officials should go in arming employees, a practice that has become standard in the aftermath of the 2012 Sandy Hook Elementary School shootings.

    One can only hope that these weapons would stop a shooter before they could hurt anyone, but there isn’t any guarantee.

    Active shooters, mass killings and militarized police and security now haunt the halls where education and learning is supposed to be taking place. More children than ever before are on pharmaceutical medications, despite the known links to suicide and homicide. Between Common Core and politically-correct policies, these institutions are teaching that up-is-down, and down-is-up like never before.

    One school in Florida even punished a 16-year old student for wrestling a gunman threatening other students to the ground and preventing a shooting. Active shooter and martial law drills have become commonplace, and many of them have been unannounced, causing terror and panic in students and teachers.

    While most schools remain “gun-free zones” and have been reluctant to allow teachers to be armed in the case of the worst incidents, many have readily invested in armed security, surveillance technology and counter-terrorism approaches to “safety” in schools.

    The result has been a heightened atmosphere that is increasingly paranoid, and ready to treat anyone and everyone as potential suspects – including children:

    Ken Trump, a school safety consultant in Cleveland, said the Douglas County case may mark the first time a district has equipped its in-house security officers with semiautomatic rifles.

     

    “Taking this step certainly ratchets up a notch the whole idea, the question of what’s reasonable, what’s necessary in terms of arming officers,” Trump said.

    But are they being protected from potential violence, or indoctrinated in a police state society where even children are under sharp suspicion, and misbehavior is criminalized? Can we see down the road as to whether this is likely to tend towards more freedom, or less? More armed citizens is positive, but more guns only in the hands of police, but private and public, may prove not be.

    Regardless, it is a precedent for the growing police state society that expects individuals to conform to the masses, and obey authorities at all costs. Michael Snyder argued that public schools are purposely preparing students to live in such a society:

    Our children are the future of America, and our public schools are systematically training them to become accustomed to living in a “Big Brother” police state. All across the United States today, public schools have essentially become “prison grids” that are run by control freaks that are absolutely obsessed with micromanaging the lives of their students down to the smallest detail. As you will read about below, students all over the country are now being monitored by RFID microchips, their lunches are being inspected on a daily basis by school administrators, and the social media accounts of students are being constantly monitored even when they are at home.

     

    […] One thing that was unheard of back when I was in high school was “active shooter drills”. They are being held in school districts all over the nation today, and they often involve the firing of blanks and the use of fake blood.

    In typical fashion, Snyder goes on to make a long list of bizarre school practices that will make your head spin, and are, frankly, teaching the future members of society how to become helpless slaves.

    Everyone can see that there is a problem, but nobody seems to know the way to fix it.

    There is a fine line somewhere in there…

  • Hundreds Of Chinese Children Mysteriously Fall Ill Suffering From Nose Bleeds, Rashes, Coughing

    Hundreds of school children in East China’s Jiangsu Province have fallen mysteriously ill, suffering from nose bleeds, itching, rashes, coughing, and other complicated symptoms, whose cause has not been determined.

    CRI reports that some of the parents alleged that they noticed irritant smells at the school. They suspect that the smell comes from chemical factories near the school, which they believe are the main causes of their children’s symptoms.

    This is the second week in a row where students were found to be suffering from the same symptoms in the same province.

    As a result, local authorities have mandated that five chemical factories near the school suspend operations. Meanwhile, the school insists on continuing all school activities as usual.

     

    Mckinsey estimated in a 2013 study that China would drive roughly 60% of global chemical market demand growth from 2011 to 2020. As firms scramble to get chemical plants up and running in China, it appears that “safety” was conveniently brushed aside and is now leading to dramatic consequences for all those in the vicinity .

  • Commodity Trader: "What Is Happening Has Absolutely No "Reasonable" Explanation"

    One commodity trader writes in with some very unique observations. From trader "Peter"

    * * *

    The insanity has now fully spilled into the commodity markets – a market which I professionally made a transition to after the 2008 crisis from the financial markets, simply because I believed it was a market that would still function according to true fundamentals…

    I guess that only lasted so long…

    The commodity markets have been prone to excessive speculation for years, but at the end, the thought of specializing in something “tangible” that EVENTUALLY would have to revert back to true supply and demand fundamentals made all the sense in the world.  Specially with the true circus that the financial markets have become since 2008…

    * * *

    From: XXXXXXXXXX
    To: "Peter"
    Sent: Wednesday, April 20, 2016 1:35 PM
    Subject: volume totals today

    774K of soybeans traded today and that would be a record by nearly 160K contracts as yesterday set the record at 615K.

    Over 88K Jly/Nov traded today and 97K May/Jly traded.  Unheard of non-roll numbers.

    Meal volume was 270K and we have to think that was a record as well but not 100% on that one.

    Lots of ideas around to try and explain the move: from commercial short hedgers blowing out, Chinese pricing, product switching from Argentina to the US.

    Not really sure if all or any of this is true but it was quite a wild session

    * * *

    From: "Peter"
    Sent: Wednesday, April 20, 2016 2:41 PM
    To: XXXXXXXXXX
    Subject: RE: Some staggering volume totals today

    Man… I would be VERY surprised if this was due to any of the reasons people are mentioning…

        Chinese pricing – I am very positive it does have something to do with it, but for the overnight session – not the daytime.
        Commercial hedgers blowing out – very possibly adding to the mess – but no way commercial volume takes us to these levels of ridiculousness in total volume…
        Product switching from ARG – yep, because we REALLY need to ration our 400+ mb bean stocks… LOL

    This is way past insane, ridiculous, etc…

    The “fundamental” reasons people are trying to ping to this are simply a nice “window dressing”…

    There is nothing else that can explain this other than you know what? 

    Here comes my Very-REAL Conspiracy Theory: the stupid FED and other Central Bankers around the world acting in unison to artificially raise inflation so that they can hopefully get out of the F’ing mess they got themselves into with this low/negative rate BS.  Call me crazy, and I am not a “conspiracy theorist” – but what is happening has absolutely no “reasonable” explanation.  So I have to think outside the box…

    The FED and other Central Banks have already destroyed the equity and other macro-financial markets… it is now turn for the commodities markets…

    I am serious … I really am… I wish I was just being sarcastic… but pause for a moment and think about what is written above…

    What explains the move in Crude? Ok, I could try and put some sort of “rationality” on the initial move from $26 – $40 (as crazy as it was), but the action in the oil market since Sunday’s “about face” in Doha?  No way anything other than pure, simple and outright manipulation can explain these last 3 days of action in the crude oil market… nothing…

    How about the fact that the main drag on the inflation figures has been what? What? FOOD & ENERGY…

    So is it so crazy to think that Central Bankers all got together in early 2016 and came up with the following equation???

    ARTIFICIALLY RAISE COMMODITY VALUATIONS = HIGHER ARTIFICIAL INFLATION = CLAMORING FOR RATES TO BE RAISED = CENTRAL BANKS HAVING A “SUCCESSFUL” END TO THE CLUSTERFCK THEY GOT THEMSELVES AND THE REST OF ALL OF US INTO WITH THEIR “ZIRP” AND “NIRP” EXPERIMENTS…

    Who or what has the power to produce such volume in such short amount of time?????? Not the powerful Chinese, not the commercials, not even the “regular” hedge fund crowd… This is much bigger than that Chris… much bigger…

    When you pause and think about what I just wrote – it will not sound that crazy after all…

    I truly wish I was joking…

    I also wish I could let go of my natural makeup of focusing on “fundamentals” and just go long everything… but I don’t believe I can… and I am frankly and idiot for it…

    Don’t write this off as some crazy conspiracy… Think about it… it is almost scary how much sense it makes…
    At the end of the day… it is what it is…

    Peter
     

  • Is Bitcoin About To Soar?

    Back on September 2, 2015 when bitcoin was trading at $230, we laid out the simplest and most fundamental reason why, irrelevant of one’s ideological persuasion with “alternative” or digital currency – bitcoin would soar.

    it was earlier this summer when the digital currency, which can bypass capital controls and national borders with the click of a button, surged on Grexit concerns and fears a Drachma return would crush the savings of an entire nation. Since then, BTC has dropped (in no small part as a result of the previously documented “forking” with Bitcoin XT), however if a few hundred million Chinese decide that the time has come to use bitcoin as the capital controls bypassing currency of choice, and decide to invest even a tiny fraction of the $22 trillion in Chinese deposits in bitcoin (whose total market cap at last check was just over $3 billion), sit back and watch as we witness the second coming of the bitcoin bubble, one which could make the previous all time highs in the digital currency, seems like a low print.

    For now only a small fraction of the eligible potential Chinese bitcoin users have emerged. Even so, bitcoin is now double the price where it was when we wrote the above forecast.

    But what if just like every other market, fundamentals only matter to a certain extent, and what is far more important is the algos scanning for patterns and creating self-fulfilling chartist prophecies.

    In other words, what if the Bitcoin technicals are far more important? Then we may be about to see a major breakout to the upside. As Dan Eskola writes, “a large move in bitcoin” is imminent.

    He explains why:

    A “Bullish Pennant” is a buy indicator. It exists here since the price action in October 2015 was bullish. Since then the prices have stabilized somewhat but have not sold off or broke out higher. Bitcoin prices are searching for direction.

    The long term chart also shows some common characteristics.

    Fundamental analysis is great, technical analysis is easy. The following fundamental bullish factors indicate that the prices for Bitcoin are headed higher.

    1. A finite number of Bitcoin will be mined.
    2. Central bankers are convinced inflation targeting is the correct policy action to promote price stability.
    3. Capital controls in struggling economies are creating new users of Bitcoin.
    4. Easier to transfer than Gold, the traditional inflation hedge.
    5. ETF $COIN seeking regulatory approval will expand market awareness and offer another vehicle for investors.

    I believe the market participants that price Bitcoin use technical analysis because it is easy and fundamental analysis is difficult. I believe that Bitcoin prices will move higher for the rest of 2016.

  • 47% Of Americans Can't Even Come Up With $400 To Cover An Emergency Room Visit

    Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

    If you had to make a sudden visit to the emergency room, would you have enough money to pay for it without selling something or borrowing the funds from somewhere? 

    Most Americans may not realize this, but this is something that the Federal Reserve has actually been tracking for several years now.  And according to the Fed, an astounding 47 percent of all Americans could not come up with $400 to pay for an emergency room visit without borrowing it or selling something

    Various surveys that I have talked about in the past have found that more than 60 percent of all Americans are living to paycheck to paycheck, but I didn’t realize that things were quite this bad for about half the country.  If you can’t even come up with $400 for an unexpected emergency room visit, then you are just surviving from month to month by the skin of your teeth.  Unfortunately, about half of us are currently in that situation.

    Earlier today someone pointed me toward an excellent article in The Atlantic that discussed this, and I have to admit that The Atlantic is one of the last remaining bastions of old school excellence in journalism that you will find in the mainstream media.  Of course I don’t see eye to eye with them on a lot of things philosophically, but there are some really hard working journalists over there.

    The article where I found the 47 percent figure comes from The Atlantic, and it is entitled “The Secret Shame of Middle-Class Americans“.  It was authored by Neal Gabler, and he says that he can identify with the 47 percent of Americans that don’t have $400 for an unexpected emergency room visit because he is one of them

    I know what it is like to have to juggle creditors to make it through a week. I know what it is like to have to swallow my pride and constantly dun people to pay me so that I can pay others. I know what it is like to have liens slapped on me and to have my bank account levied by creditors. I know what it is like to be down to my last $5—literally—while I wait for a paycheck to arrive, and I know what it is like to subsist for days on a diet of eggs. I know what it is like to dread going to the mailbox, because there will always be new bills to pay but seldom a check with which to pay them. I know what it is like to have to tell my daughter that I didn’t know if I would be able to pay for her wedding; it all depended on whether something good happened. And I know what it is like to have to borrow money from my adult daughters because my wife and I ran out of heating oil.

    To me, this is yet more evidence that the middle class in America is dying.

    Last year, it was reported that middle class Americans make up a minority of the population for the very first time in our history.

    But back in 1971, 61 percent of all Americans lived in middle class households.

    So what happened?

    Well, the big corporations started shipping millions of good paying manufacturing jobs overseas.  Millions of other good paying jobs were replaced by technology, and the competition for the good jobs that remained became extremely intense.

    During the good times, the U.S. economy still created new jobs, but most of those jobs were low paying service jobs.

    At this point, a majority of American workers have jobs that would be considered low paying.  In fact, 51 percent of all American workers make less than $30,000 a year according to the Social Security Administration.

    And once you account for inflation, the truth is that our incomes have been going down for years.  According to a study that was released by Pew Charitable Trusts, median household income in the United States decreased by 13 percent between 2004 and 2014.

    That isn’t “progress” any way that you slice it.

    If you go all the way back to 1970, the middle class took home approximately 62 percent of all income in the United States.

    Today, that number has fallen to just 43 percent.

    So the fact that 47 percent of Americans can’t even pay for an unexpected emergency room visit is not exactly a surprise.  To be honest, a whole host of other surveys have come up with similar numbers.  Here is more from Neal Gabler

    A 2014 Bankrate survey, echoing the Fed’s data, found that only 38 percent of Americans would cover a $1,000 emergency-room visit or $500 car repair with money they’d saved. Two reports published last year by the Pew Charitable Trusts found, respectively, that 55 percent of households didn’t have enough liquid savings to replace a month’s worth of lost income, and that of the 56 percent of people who said they’d worried about their finances in the previous year, 71 percent were concerned about having enough money to cover everyday expenses.

    What all of these numbers tell us is that the middle class is disappearing.  I tend to compare it to a game of really bizarre musical chairs.  With each passing month more chairs are being pulled out of the circle, and those members of the middle class that haven’t fallen into poverty yet are just hoping that a chair will still be there for them when the music stops.

    Even during the “Obama recovery”, we have seen poverty in America absolutely explode.  In fact, some brand new numbers just came out that are quite startling.  The following comes from another author for The Atlantic named Gillian B. White

    Recently, the Brookings Institution published a report looking at the same idea but giving it a different name. The paper, builds on research from the British economist William Beveridge, who in 1942 proposed five types of poverty: squalor, ignorance, want, idleness, and disease. In modern terms, these could be defined as poverty related to housing, education, income, employment, and healthcare, respectively. Analyzing the 2014 American Community Survey, the paper’s co-authors, Richard Reeves, Edward Rodrigue, and Elizabeth Kneebone, found that half of Americans experience at least one of these types of poverty, and around 25 percent suffer from at least two.

    To underscore this point, let me just run five quick facts about the growth of poverty in this country by you…

    The number of Americans that are living in concentrated areas of high poverty has doubled since the year 2000.

     

    In 2007, about one out of every eight children in America was on food stamps. Today, that number is one out of every five.

     

    46 million Americans use food banks each year, and lines start forming at some U.S. food banks as early as 6:30 in the morning because people want to get something before the food supplies run out.

     

    The number of homeless children in the U.S. has increased by 60 percent over the past six years.

     

    According to Poverty USA, 1.6 million American children slept in a homeless shelter or some other form of emergency housing last year.

    That last number really gets me every time.

    How can “the wealthiest and most powerful nation on the planet” have more than a million homeless children?

    This is one of the reasons why I hammer on our ongoing economic collapse over and over and over.  It is affecting real families with real children that have real hopes and real dreams.

    This is not the way our country is supposed to work.

    It is supposed to be “the land of opportunity”.

    It is supposed to be a place where anyone can live “the American Dream”.

    But instead it has become an economic wasteland where the largest and most prosperous middle class in the history of the world is being systematically eviscerated.

    So no, the U.S. economy is not doing “just fine” – anyone that tries to tell you that lie is simply peddling fiction.

  • Pimco Economist Has A Stunning Proposal To Save The Economy: The Fed Should Buy Gold

    Back in December 2014, just before the ECB officially launched its initial phase of QE in which it would monetize government bonds, Mario Draghi was asked a very direct question: what types of assets could the ECB buy as part of its quantitative easing program. He responded, “we discussed all assets but gold.”

    The reason for his tongue in cheek response was because over the prior few weeks speculation had arisen that gold could be part of the central bank’s asset purchases after Yves Mersch, a member of the ECB executive board and former Governor of the Central Bank of Luxembourg, said on November 17 that theoretically the ECB could purchase other assets such as gold, shares, ETFs to fulfill its promise of adopting further unconventional measures to counter a longer period of low inflation.

    Mario Draghi promptly shot down that idea.

    But according to a provocative paper released by none other than Pimco’s strategist Harley Bassman, Yves Mersch’s inadvertent peek into what central bankers are thinking, may have been on to something. 

    In “Rumpelstiltskin at the Fed“, Bassman goes down the well-trodden path of proposing Fed asset purchases as the last ditch panacea for the US economy, however instead of buying bonds, or stocks, or crude oil, Bassman has a truly original idea: “the Fed should unleash a massive Fed gold purchase program that could echo a Depression-era effort that effectively boosted the U.S. economy.

    He is of course, referring to FDR’s 1933 Executive Order 6102, which made it illegal for a citizen to own gold bullion or coins. Americans promptly sold their gold to the government at the official price of $20.67, with the resulting hoard of gold was then placed in Fort Knox.

    The Gold Reserve Act of 1934 raised the official price of gold to $35.00, a near 70% increase. It also resulted in an implicit devaluation of the US dollar. As Bassman points out, over the three years from January 1934 to December 1936, GDP increased by 48%, the Dow Jones stock index rose by nearly 80%, and most salient to our topic, inflation averaged a positive 2% annually, despite a national unemployment rate hovering around 18%.

    In short, a brief economic nirvana which was unleashed by the devaluation of the dollar confiscation of gold. In fact, we have frequently hinted in the past that another Executive Order 6102 is inevitable for precisely these reasons. However this is the first time when we see a “respected economist” openly recommend this idea as a matter of monetary policy.

    Bassman says that the Fed should “emulate a past success by making a public offer to purchase a significantly large quantity of gold bullion at a substantially greater price than today’s free-market level, perhaps $5,000 an ounce? It would be operationally simple as holders could transact directly at regional Federal offices or via authorized precious metal assayers.”

    What would the outcome of such as “QE for the goldbugs” look like? His summary assessment:

    A massive Fed gold purchase program would differ from past efforts at monetary expansion. Via QE, the transmission mechanism was wholly contained within the financial system; fiat currency was used to buy fiat assets which then settled on bank balance sheets. Since QE is arcane to most people outside of Wall Street, and NIRP seems just bizarre to most non-academics, these policies have had little impact on inflationary expectations. Global consumers are more familiar with gold than the banking system, thus this avenue of monetary expansion might finally lift the anchor on inflationary expectations and their associated spending habits.

     

    The USD may initially weaken versus fiat currencies, but other central banks could soon buy gold as well, similar to the paths of QE and NIRP. The impactful twist of a gold purchase program is that it increases the price of a widely recognized “store of value,” a view little diminished despite the fact the U.S. relinquished the gold standard in 1971. This is a vivid contrast to the relatively invisible inflation of financial assets with its perverse side effect of widening the income gap.

    And before Krugman accuses Bassman of secretly being on our payroll, this is how Pimco’s economist defends his unorthodox idea:

    Admittedly, this suggestion is almost too outrageous to post under the PIMCO logo, but NIRP surely would have elicited a similar reaction a decade ago. But upon reflection, it could be an elegant solution since it flips the boxes on a foreign currency “prisoner’s dilemma” (more on this below). Most critically, a massive gold purchase has the potential to significantly boost inflationary expectations, both domestic and foreign.

     

    * * *

     

    Many people will rightfully dismiss the gold idea as absurd, as just another fanciful strategy to print money; why not just buy oil, houses or some other hard asset? In fact, why fool around with gold; why not just execute helicopter money as originally advertised? I would answer the former by noting that only gold qualifies as money; and as for the latter, fiscal compromise on that order seems like a daydream in Washington today – don’t expect a helicopter liftoff anytime soon.

     

    Let’s be honest; most people thought NIRP was just as nonsensical a few years ago, yet it has now been implemented by six central banks with little evidence it is effective. And while a gold purchase program should qualify as a fairy tale, what is unique here is that it actually occurred with a confirmed positive effect on the U.S. economy.

    We agree, if for no other reason than everything central banks have done and tried in history has been a disastrous mistake, leading to either huge asset bubbles or massive busts, which in turn have needed even more spectacular bubbles to be reflated and so on. As such, the one thing that central banks should do is that which they are “genetically” against – purchasing the one asset class which is their inherent nemesis, the one Ben Bernanke said had value only because of “tradition”: Gold.

    Of course, all of the above assumes Americans would be willing to sell their gold to the Fed at any prices, but as Bassman finally lays it out, it is worth finding out. Janet, are you listening?

    * * *

    From PIMCO, by Harley Bassman


    Rumpelstiltskin at the Fed

    Though it seems incredibly farfetched, a massive Fed gold purchase program could echo a Depression-era effort that effectively boosted the U.S. economy.

    As our title alludes, I am about to spin a monetary policy fairy tale, a fantasy that could certainly never occur … except for the small detail that it’s happened before.

    First I must remind you there are only two avenues out of a debt crisis – default or inflate – and inflation is just a slow-motion default. Thus in the darker days of the global financial crisis, the U.S. Federal Reserve set sail on a monetary experiment tangentially suggested by late Nobel laureate Milton Friedman, the original coiner of the phrase “helicopter money.” (Ben Bernanke borrowed this clever construct in his famous November 2002 speech, “Deflation: Making Sure ‘It’ Doesn’t Happen Here.”)

    The notion was simple: Increase monetary velocity via financial repression to create inflation, depreciate nominal debt and deleverage both the public and private economies of the U.S. The toolkit of financial repression would include, but not be limited to, near-zero overnight interbank borrowing rates, massive asset purchase programs (also known as quantitative easing or QE), term surface restructuring (known as Operation Twist) and good old-fashioned jawboning, in this case taking the form of distant forward guidance.

    Notwithstanding various political exhortations, there can be little doubt the Fed’s aggressive monetary policies after the collapse of Lehman Brothers were quite effective in cushioning the macro economy from the financial turmoil. Would the economy have cured itself without the Fed? We can’t prove a negative, but up until China allowed the devaluation of the yuan last August and Japan implemented negative interest rates in January, the Fed’s “Plan A” was working reasonably well.

    But we do not operate in a vacuum, and various monetary machinations from the eurozone, Japan and China are now working in concert to export deflation to the U.S. This is quite worrisome as it may well hinder the U.S. economy from reaching the Fed’s target inflation level (2%) and escape-velocity economic growth.

    Thus did Fed Chair Janet Yellen, in her most recent visit to Congress, tentatively start to explore a “Plan B” (which looks like Plan A on steroids) that includes, if only in theory, the barest remote possibility of a negative interest rate policy (NIRP).

    There are a host of reasons PIMCO believes NIRP would be not only ineffective, but also possibly harmful to the U.S. economy, and these have been detailed by CIOs Scott Mather and Mihir Worah. But this does raise the question as to whether the Fed has indeed reached the bottom of its toolkit. Many things are possible, at least in theory, including the famous helicopter drop. Another option is to resurrect a plan that was actually implemented (with great success) 83 years ago.

    The real fairy tale

    From shortly after the October 1929 stock market crash to just before Franklin Delano Roosevelt became president in 1933, U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) declined by nearly 43%; during a similar timeframe, consumer prices declined by nearly 24%.

    Employing what can only be described as force majeure politics, in April 1933 the U.S. government issued Executive Order 6102, which made it illegal for a citizen to own gold bullion or coins. Lest they risk a five-year vacation in prison, citizens sold their gold to the government at the official price of $20.67. This hoard of gold was then placed in a specially built storage facility – Fort Knox.

    The Gold Reserve Act of 1934 raised the official price of gold to $35.00, a near 70% increase; positive results were almost immediate. Over the three years from January 1934 to December 1936, GDP increased by 48%, the Dow Jones stock index rose by nearly 80%, and most salient to our topic, inflation averaged a positive 2% annually, despite a national unemployment rate hovering around 18%.

    Such a pity that these halcyon days were soon sullied as the government tightened financial conditions (both fiscal and monetary) from late 1936 to early 1937, which many point to as the precipitant of the Dow’s 33% decline. Additionally, the 1938 calendar reported a 6.3% decline in GDP and a 2.8% deflation in consumer prices. (Many suspect it is the fear of a 1937 redux that motivates the Fed to contemplate additional extraordinary actions, including NIRP.)

    So in the context of today’s paralyzed political-fiscal landscape and a hyperventilated election process, how silly is it to suggest the Fed emulate a past success by making a public offer to purchase a significantly large quantity of gold bullion at a substantially greater price than today’s free-market level, perhaps $5,000 an ounce? It would be operationally simple as holders could transact directly at regional Federal offices or via authorized precious metal assayers.

    Admittedly, this suggestion is almost too outrageous to post under the PIMCO logo, but NIRP surely would have elicited a similar reaction a decade ago. But upon reflection, it could be an elegant solution since it flips the boxes on a foreign currency “prisoner’s dilemma” (more on this below). Most critically, a massive gold purchase has the potential to significantly boost inflationary expectations, both domestic and foreign.

    Asset or currency?

    While never an officially stated policy, there has been a slow-moving, low-intensity currency war taking place over the past decade. The U.S. was the first mover, implementing QE in 2009, which had the effect of depreciating the trade-weighted U.S. dollar (USD) by 16%. Japan was next, implementing “Abenomics” in 2012; this helped depreciate the yen (JPY) versus the USD by over 30% in eight months. Europe went last when Mario Draghi followed through on “whatever it takes” in 2014; the euro devalued versus the USD from peak to trough by 24%. China had pegged the yuan to the USD to help maintain a stable trading environment, however, the increasing value of their currency against their other trading partners was hindering growth, and thus the motivation for a slight realignment last August.

    The problem the world’s major economies now face is that any attempt to depreciate their currencies to improve the terms of trade must effectively come out of the pockets of their partners; this creates a classic prisoner’s dilemma. Thus the interesting twist of a Fed gold purchase program.

    Warren Buffett famously railed against the shiny yellow metal in 2012 when he noted all the gold in the world could be swapped for the totality of U.S. cropland and seven ExxonMobils with $1 trillion left over for “walking-around money.” His point was that these assets can generate significant returns while owning gold produces no discernable cash flow.

    While this observation is certainly true, the rub is that this is not a fair comparison since gold is not an asset; rather, it should be considered an alternate currency. Pundits often describe the five factors that define “money”:

    1. Its supply is controlled or limited,
    2. It is fungible/uniform – this is why diamonds cannot qualify,
    3. It is portable – this is why land cannot qualify,
    4. It is divisible – thus art cannot be money, and
    5. It is liquid – this means people will readily accept it in exchange.

    By this definition, gold is certainly a form of money, and to Mr. Buffett’s point, one also earns no cash flow on paper dollars, euros, yen or yuan.

    Raising expectations

    A massive Fed gold purchase program would differ from past efforts at monetary expansion. Via QE, the transmission mechanism was wholly contained within the financial system; fiat currency was used to buy fiat assets which then settled on bank balance sheets. Since QE is arcane to most people outside of Wall Street, and NIRP seems just bizarre to most non-academics, these policies have had little impact on inflationary expectations. Global consumers are more familiar with gold than the banking system, thus this avenue of monetary expansion might finally lift the anchor on inflationary expectations and their associated spending habits.

    The USD may initially weaken versus fiat currencies, but other central banks could soon buy gold as well, similar to the paths of QE and NIRP. The impactful twist of a gold purchase program is that it increases the price of a widely recognized “store of value,” a view little diminished despite the fact the U.S. relinquished the gold standard in 1971. This is a vivid contrast to the relatively invisible inflation of financial assets with its perverse side effect of widening the income gap.

    In coda I would respond to the argument that a central bank cannot willfully create inflation – I disagree; it just depends upon how hard one tries. There are plenty of examples ranging from Weimar Germany to Zimbabwe where central banks have unleashed uncontrolled hyperinflations.

    The more interesting question is not whether the Fed can create a 15% to 20% price spiral, but rather can they implement policies that will result in a somewhat gentle and controlled 2% to 3% inflation rate that will slowly deleverage the U.S. debt load while simultaneously increasing middle class nominal wages.

    Many people will rightfully dismiss the gold idea as absurd, as just another fanciful strategy to print money; why not just buy oil, houses or some other hard asset? In fact, why fool around with gold; why not just execute helicopter money as originally advertised? I would answer the former by noting that only gold qualifies as money; and as for the latter, fiscal compromise on that order seems like a daydream in Washington today – don’t expect a helicopter liftoff anytime soon.

    Let’s be honest; most people thought NIRP was just as nonsensical a few years ago, yet it has now been implemented by six central banks with little evidence it is effective. And while a gold purchase program should qualify as a fairy tale, what is unique here is that it actually occurred with a confirmed positive effect on the U.S. economy.

    So when the next seat for a Fed governor becomes available, I would nominate Rumpelstiltskin … just a thought.

  • Soros Warns China Credit Cycle Has Gone "Parabolic" Just To Keep Zombies Alive

    After warning last year of a "practically unavoidable" hard-landing to come in China, George Soros unleashed his central-planner-crushing self last night on the great red ponzi. As we noted last night, Soros warned the "parabolic" rise in credit  is very worrisome, and "eerily reminiscent of US in 2007-8," specifically adding that "most of the money that banks are supplying is needed to keep bad debts and loss-making enterprises alive." Soros' full discussion can be found below…

    “Most of the damage occurred in later years," he said according to Bloomberg, referring to the spurt in US growth before the crash.

    Simply put – as we highlighted with the shenanigans in the steel industry – China is attempting reflate its economy once again by reviving zombies who have now died twice. This can only end badly, and Soros was not alone in his opinions…

    "Whether we call it stabilization or not, I am not sure,” Andrew Colquhoun, the head of Asia Pacific sovereigns at Fitch Ratings said in an interview in New York. “From a credit perspective, we’d be more comfortable with China slowing more than it is. We are getting less confident in the government’s commitment to structural reforms."

     

    The stabilizing trend isn’t giving investors “enough confidence,” as China seems to have relied more on government investment in state-owned enterprises to boost the economy, said Gao Xiqing, former vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, in an interview in New York this week.

    George Soros' full discusssion can be viewed below (he begins at around 27:00 mark)…

    asiasociety on livestream.com. Broadcast Live Free

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Today’s News 21st April 2016

  • Treasury Removes Jackson From $20 Bill, Will Replace Him With Harriet Tubman

    Presenting an artist's impression of what your new $20 bill will soon look like.

     

    It's official.

    Moments ago Politico reported that the U.S. Treasury will announce that it plans to replace former President Andrew Jackson on the $20 bill with Harriet Tubman, the sources said. There will also be changes to the $5 bill to depict civil rights era leaders including Marian Anderson, Eleanor Roosevelt and Martin Luther King Jr.

    Not every dead president is being scraped however: treasury Secretary Jack Lew on Wednesday will announce a decision to keep Alexander Hamilton on the front of the $10 bill and put leaders of the movement to give women the right to vote on the back of the bill.

     Lew's decision comes after he announced last summer that he was considering replacing Hamilton on the $10 bill with a woman. The announcement drew swift rebukes from fans of Hamilton, who helped create the Treasury Department and the modern American financial system. Critics immediately suggested Hamilton take Jackson off the $20 bill given the former president's role in moving native Americans off their land.

    Jackson may remain on the $20 bill in some capacity, but will clearly be demoted.

    Lew told POLITICO last July that Treasury was exploring ways to respond to critics. “There are a number of options of how we can resolve this,” Lew said. “We’re not taking Alexander Hamilton off our currency.”

    * * *

    Here is the official statement from the US Treasury:

    Treasury Secretary Lew Announces Front of New $20 to Feature Harriet Tubman, Lays Out Plans for New $20, $10 and $5

     

    4/20/2016 ?

    WASHINGTON – In a letter to the American people, Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew today announced plans for the new $20, $10 and $5 notes, with the portrait of Harriet Tubman to be featured on the front of the new $20.

     

    Secretary Lew also announced plans for the reverse of the new $10 to feature an image of the historic march for suffrage that ended on the steps of the Treasury Department and honor the leaders of the suffrage movement—Lucretia Mott, Sojourner Truth, Susan B. Anthony, Elizabeth Cady Stanton, and Alice Paul.  The front of the new $10 note will maintain the portrait of Alexander Hamilton.

     

    Finally, he announced plans for the reverse of the new $5 to honor events at the Lincoln Memorial that helped to shape our history and our democracy and prominent individuals involved in those events, including Marian Anderson, Eleanor Roosevelt and Martin Luther King Jr.

     

    The reverse of the new $20 will feature images of the White House and President Andrew Jackson.

     

    In his letter, Secretary Lew noted that the Bureau of Engraving and Printing will work closely with the Federal Reserve to accelerate work on the new $20 and $5 notes, with the goal that all three new notes go into circulation as quickly as possible, consistent with security requirements.

    Here is Jacob Lew's "explanatory" letter:

    An Open Letter from Secretary Lew:

     

    When I announced last June that a newly redesigned $10 note would feature a woman, I hoped to encourage a national conversation about women in our democracy.  The response has been powerful.  You and your fellow citizens from across the country have made your voices heard through town hall discussions and roundtable conversations, and with more than a million responses via mail and email, and through handwritten notes, tweets, and social media posts.  Thank you for sharing this thoughtful and impassioned feedback.

     

    Over the course of the last 10 months, you put forth hundreds of names of people who have played a pivotal role in our nation’s history.  Many of you proposed that our new currency highlight democracy in action and reflect the diversity of our great nation.  Some of you suggested we skip the redesign of the $10 note, which is the next in line for a security upgrade, and move immediately to redesigning the $20 note.  And others proposed unconventional ideas, such as creating a $25 bill.

     

    I have been inspired by this conversation and today I am excited to announce that for the first time in more than a century, the front of our currency will feature the portrait of a woman—Harriet Tubman on the $20 note.

     

    Since we began this process, we have heard overwhelming encouragement from Americans to look at notes beyond the $10.  Based on this input, I have directed the Bureau of Engraving and Printing to accelerate plans for the redesign of the $20, $10, and $5 notes.  We already have begun work on initial concepts for each note, which will continue this year.  We anticipate that final concept designs for the new $20, $10, and $5 notes will all be unveiled in 2020 in conjunction with the 100th anniversary of the 19th Amendment, which granted women the right to vote.

     

    The decision to put Harriet Tubman on the new $20 was driven by thousands of responses we received from Americans young and old.  I have been particularly struck by the many comments and reactions from children for whom Harriet Tubman is not just a historical figure, but a role model for leadership and participation in our democracy.  You shared your thoughts about her life and her works and how they changed our nation and represented our most cherished values.  Looking back on her life, Tubman once said, “I would fight for liberty so long as my strength lasted.”  And she did fight, for the freedom of slaves and for the right of women to vote.  Her incredible story of courage and commitment to equality embodies the ideals of democracy that our nation celebrates, and we will continue to value her legacy by honoring her on our currency.  The reverse of the new $20 will continue to feature the White House as well as an image of President Andrew Jackson.

     

    As I said when we launched this exciting project: after more than 100 years, we cannot delay, so the next bill to be redesigned must include women, who for too long have been absent from our currency.  The new $10 will honor the story and the heroes of the women’s suffrage movement against the backdrop of the Treasury building.  Treasury’s relationship with the suffrage movement dates back to the March of 1913, when advocates came together on the steps of the Treasury building to demonstrate for a woman’s right to vote, seven years prior to the passage of the 19th Amendment.  The new $10 design will depict that historic march and honor Lucretia Mott, Sojourner Truth, Susan B. Anthony, Elizabeth Cady Stanton, and Alice Paul for their contributions to the suffrage movement.  The front of the new $10 will continue to feature Alexander Hamilton, our nation’s first Treasury Secretary and the architect of our economic system.

     

    The reverse of the new $5 will depict the historic events that have occurred at the Lincoln Memorial.  In 1939, at a time when Washington’s concert halls were still segregated, world-renowned Opera singer Marian Anderson helped advance civil rights when, with the support of First Lady Eleanor Roosevelt, she performed at the Lincoln Memorial in front of 75,000 people.  And in 1963, Martin Luther King, Jr. delivered his historic “I Have a Dream” speech at the same monument in front of hundreds of thousands.  Honoring these figures will bring to life events at the Lincoln Memorial that helped to shape our history and our democracy.  The front of the new $5 will continue to feature President Lincoln.

     

    Due to security needs, the redesigned $10 note is scheduled to go into circulation next.  I have directed the Bureau of Engraving and Printing to work closely with the Federal Reserve to accelerate work on the new $20 and $5 notes.  Our goal is to have all three new notes go into circulation as quickly as possible, while ensuring that we protect against counterfeiting through effective and sophisticated production.

     

    This process has been much bigger than one square inch on one bill, and along the way, we heard about countless individuals who contributed to our democracy.  Our website, modernmoney.treasury.gov, will highlight many of the names that we heard throughout this process, and help tell some of the many stories that inspired us.  Of course, more work remains to tell the rich and textured history of our country.  But with this decision, our currency will now tell more of our story and reflect the contributions of women as well as men to our great democracy.

     

    Thank you,

     

    Secretary Jacob J. Lew

    * * *

    Confused? Disturbed? Angry? You are not alone. The following rant by Mac Slavo expressed many feeling about the proposed change.

    Andrew Jackson, Who Fought Central Bank, Removed from $20 As “Public Concern for Liberty” Erased

    Andrew-Jackson-Wouldnt-Want-To-Be-On-The-20-Bill-Anyway

    The War on Cash has many fronts.

    The latest battle is for the face of the currency itself, and the central bankers, who control the front anyway, have imposed a symbolic defeat against the leaders in America’s past who have fought against the stranglehold of the money makers.

    Naturally, there are liberal politics at play, fighting for every inch of ground in the war for ideological re-engineering. History is being whitewashed, various figures of antiquity rolling in their graves….

    At stake is a dispute for the powers of government even better than the more famous duel between Aaron Burr and Alexander Hamilton, of whom we also speak.

    The iconic $20 bill, with the face of President Andrew Jackson, and the $10 bill, with the face of the nation’s first Treasury Secretary, Alexander Hamilton, have long pitted two ideological extremes against each other as they pass along as some of the most used denominations in circulation.

    But now, the money powers at the Treasury Department have decided that it is time to add a woman’s face to the money supply as well.

    As such, the powers-that-bank have decided to oust Andrew Jackson from the line up, and with it, part of his legacy.

    It will be “removed in favor of a female representing the struggle for racial equality,” according to CNN, while an early proposal to remove Alexander Hamilton’s bill will be scrapped, though the proposal includes a redesign on the backs of his and several other notes with scenes from the Woman’s Suffrage Movement, Susan B. and all the gals.

    Treasury Secretary Jack Lew is expected to announce this week that Alexander Hamilton’s face will remain on the front of the $10 bill and a woman will replace Andrew Jackson on the face of the $20 bill, a senior government source told CNN on Saturday.

    Dramatically, it seems that there was a backlash to counter the coup against Hamilton, including support from former Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke:

    The decision to make the historic change at the expense of Hamilton drew angry rebukes from fans of the former Treasury Secretary. The pro-Hamilton movement gained steam after the smash success of the hip-hop Broadway musical about his life this year.

     
    Those pressures led Lew to determine that Hamilton should remain on the front of the bill.

    And there’s a reason for Bernanke’s bias towards Hamilton.

    Here’s the scoop from the Economic Policy Journal, who called it a “despicable decision”:

    It was Hamilton, who from the early days of the nation clamored for a central bank and a strong interventionist federal government.

     

    I have quoted Thomas DiLorenzo on the evil Hamilton before:

     

    Hamilton was a compulsive statist who wanted to bring the corrupt British mercantilist system — the very system the American Revolution was fought to escape from — to America. He fought fiercely for his program of corporate welfare, protectionist tariffs, public debt, pervasive taxation, and a central bank run by politicians and their appointees out of the nation’s capital….

     

    Hamilton complained to George Washington that “we need a government of more energy” and expressed disgust over “an excessive concern for liberty in public men”…

     

    The Philadelphie Federal Reserve publication. A History of Central Banking in America, reports:

     

    Alexander Hamilton, the first Secretary of the Treasury, urged Congress to also assume the war debts of the individual states and then create a national bank to help refinance all these debts. Hamilton’s proposal faced major opposition. Critics said that Hamilton’s bank was unconstitutional, would be a monopoly, and would reduce the power of the states. Although Hamilton won, the bank’s charter was limited to 20 years.

    And that’s right where Andrew Jackson’s legacy with the banks picks up.

    With the charter of the first “Bank of the United States” ending, Jackson was determined to stop the charter of the second “Bank of the United States” and famously stated:

    “You are a den of vipers and thieves. I intend to rout you out, and by the eternal God, I will rout you out.” (Andrew Jackson, to a delegation of bankers discussing the recharter of the Second Bank of the United States, 1832)

    President Jackson likened their agents to the hydra-beast, with its many heads, and even survived an assassination attempt, by staving off an attacker personally.

    jackson-banks-vipers

    The bankers, and the powerful families including the Rothschilds who supported it, wanted a “national bank” because they could load the board with “their” guys and outweigh the will of the people and the normal channels of government.

    Of course, the same exact state of affairs has been going on today for more than a century with the Federal Reserve, which is run by the successors to the same exact banking interests, including the still immensely-powerful Rothschild family.

    The struggle is depicted well in “The Money Masters,” which spans several centuries of history with the threat of banking powers over individual sovereignty in stark contrast. To be sure, there is an important and nefarious plot afoot to ensnare you, your family and everyone on the block with debt.

     

    There is a line, and you should figure out what side of it you’re going to be on.

    Jackson narrowly succeeded in staving off banker domination of the U.S. during his day.

    Of course, Andrew Jackson, who was the United States’ seventh president, was also a complete controversy his entire lifetime. It is no surprise that the same people who took down the Confederate flag from the South on the back of a mass shooting tragedy are now trying to tear down the image of a particularly controversial and intriguing figure from the American past.

    Jackson was a recalcitrant and unyielding general and war hero, and later an outsider riding a wave of populist support into the White House, bringing in sometimes unscrupulous companions, and plenty of Masons. Many of his backers were diametrically opposed to the entrenched power of New York bankers and speculators, as well as patrician politicians who dominated the first phase of politics in the nation’s history. Jackson played a nasty role in the Trail of Tears affairs with Indians, too, and with the South and Western expansion of slave-friendly territories. Many shades of grey.

    Meanwhile, behind the scenes in the founding days of this country, Alexander Hamilton, an advocate of strong central government, and maneuvered on behalf of his banker masters to collectivize the war debt from the states and create a central bank to control the financial strength of the country, and ingrain the early United States with the mindset of the British masters they had just fought to shake off.

    After the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, and the crisis and consolidation of wealth during the Great Depression, and ever since the 2008 economic collapse, the rule by bankers has become a foregone conclusion, though there will be more chances to shake off their yoke of control. (BitCoin is one possible avenue; Congressionally-controlled greenbacks another; gold and silver yet another…)

    Erasing Andrew Jackson from the faces of the fiat funny-money that is passed around by an increasingly ignorant and dependent society (which itself has adopted digital currency as the new norm) will further cut off the past from the masses, and ensure their enslavement.

  • Meet Trump 2.0: "Be Afraid, Anti-Trump Forces, Be Very Afraid"

    Authored by Chris Cillizza, originally posted at The Washington Post,

    Gone was "Lyin' Ted."  In its place was "Senator Cruz." Gone was the long-winded speech that went nowhere. In its place was a succinct recitation of states and delegates won. Gone was the two-day vacation as a reward for winning. In its place was an early morning trip to Indiana followed by another planned stop in Maryland.

    Donald Trump 2.0 made his official debut Tuesday night following his sweeping victory in New York, a win that looks to net him 90 delegates and reestablishes him as the man to beat in the Republican presidential race.

    That version of Trump was markedly more disciplined, gentler and more appealing than the version of Trump we've seen for much of the last year. And, that fact should scare the hell out of establishment Republicans who believed that their efforts to keep Trump from the 1,237 delegates he needs to formally capture the GOP nomination was beginning to catch on.

    Why? Because it's clear, at least for now, that Trump is listening to his new political advisers — chief among them convention manager Paul Manafort and national field director Rick Wiley. Trump's change in tone on Tuesday night was absolutely unmistakeable to anyone who has paid even passing attention to his campaign to date.  The man who had built his frontrunning campaign on a willingness to always and without fail take the race to its lowest common denominator — was suddenly full of respect for the men he beat and full of facts about the state of the race.

    "We have won millions of more votes than Senator Cruz, millions and millions of more votes than Governor Kasich," Trump said. "We've won, and now especially after tonight, close to 300 delegates more than Senator Cruz."

    The change in tone is absolutely necessary if Trump wants to not only find a way to 1,237 delegates but also unite the party behind him in any meaningful way heading into the general election campaign this fall. The truth is that Trump has to play an outsider and an insider game from here on out. The outsider game is to keep winning primaries by convincing margins like he did in New York. The insider game is to show unbound delegates as well as party leaders and influencers that he can be magnanimous, that he can be a uniting force within the party.

    Calling Cruz "Lyin' Ted" is a great laugh line at a Trump rally but accusing the Texas senator of holding up the Bible and then putting it down and lying isn't exactly the sort of rhetoric you need or want from a candidate who needs to bring the party together behind a common enemy in Hillary Clinton. It's the difference between being voted "class clown" and being elected student body president. The former delights in taking the low road for cheap laughs. (I speak from experience.) The latter takes the high road even if it's against his or her own natural instincts.

    Can Trump keep it up?  Discipline on a single night or even a single week is one thing. Discipline over several months amid what will be continued attacks from both Cruz and the "stop Trump" movement is something else. And, listening to your new advisers when they are, well, new is easier than listening to them when it's been a few months of biting your tongue and fighting back some of your natural attack instincts.

    But, Trump has shown — both on Tuesday night and over the past week or so — an ability to reign himself in that suggests he understands that this new and improved version of himself is the one that can actually win the Republican presidential nomination

    Be scared, anti-Trump forces. Be very scared.

    *  *  *

    And as Reuters reports, the message appears to be getting through as U.S. Republican officials began meeting on Wednesday, a day after Donald Trump's crushing victory in a New York presidential nominating contest, and said he has been winning growing acceptance within their ranks – but they want to see the billionaire do more to mend fences with the party establishment.

    Trump was the focus for the party's spring meeting of 168 Republican National Committee (RNC) members in Hollywood, Florida. The three-day conclave at an oceanside resort will take stock of the race for the White House and prepare for a possible contested convention in July in Cleveland.

     

    The New York real estate mogul's win Tuesday in his home state over rivals Ted Cruz and John Kasich was an important milestone for RNC members, who said it could put him on a pathway to acquire the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination outright without a contested convention.

     

    "There are a fair number of RNC members who were discounting his chances of success when we met in January and now see that he’s building a substantial lead and may in fact get to 1,237 before we get to the convention," said Steve Duprey, an RNC member from New Hampshire.

     

    "The New York results were such an overwhelming win," Duprey said. "It's impressive. That's what I've heard people talking about."

    Trump, Cruz and Kasich all sent envoys to the meeting to explain their pathways to the nomination.

    South Carolina Republican Party Chairman Matt Moore said Trump's recent hiring of Rick Wiley, a Republican veteran who was former presidential candidate Scott Walker's campaign manager, was a good sign.

     

    "It’s a positive signal despite a lack of general outreach over the past year, and I think the Trump campaign, for all the bluster, recognizes that the RNC will be an integral partner if he is the nominee and it’ll be almost impossible to win the presidency without the RNC as a partner," Moore said.

    In a good sign for Trump, there appeared to be no significant move by the Republican leadership, at least at this meeting, to change the rules governing the convention. There has been talk of rewriting the rules in a way that could benefit an establishment-backed candidate like Kasich.

  • Oil Market Hype And Crisis Signal Greater Troubles Ahead

    Submitted by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    Most people are not avid followers of economic news, and I don’t blame them. Financial analysis is for the most part boring and tedious and you would have to be some kind of crazy to commit a large slice of your life to it.

    However, those of us who are that crazy do what we do (and do it independently) because underneath all the data and the charts and the overnight news feeds we see keys to future events. And if we are observant enough, we might even be able to warn people who don’t have the same proclivities but still deserve to know the reality of the world around them.

    Most Americans and much of the rest of the planet probably was not aware of the recent oil producer’s meeting in Doha, Qatar this past Sunday, nor would they have cared. A bunch of rich guys in white dresses talking about oil production levels does not exactly spark the imagination. What the masses missed, though, was an event that could affect them deeply and economically for many months to come.

    A little background highly summarized…

    After the derivatives and credit crisis launched in 2007/2008 the Federal Reserve responded to disastrous levels of deflation with a fiat money printing bonanza. Everyone knows this. The problem was the central bankers never had any intention of actually using all that “cash” to support Main Street or the fundamentals of the economy.

    Instead, they used their printing press and digital loan transfers to artificially re-inflate the coffers of banks and major corporations. It was a blood transfusion for vampires, if you will.

    Through the use of TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program), quantitative easing, artificially low interest rates, and probably a host of secret actions we’ll never hear about, a steady stream of capital (or debt, to be more precise) was pumped through corporate conduits. The goal? To keep the U.S. from immediate bankruptcy through treasury bond purchases, to boost bank credit, and to allow companies to institute an unprecedented program of stock buybacks (a method by which a corporation buys back its own shares to reduce the amount on the market, thereby manipulating the value of the remaining shares to higher prices).

    As the former head of the Federal Reserve Dallas branch, Richard Fisher admitted in an interview with CNBC:

    “What the Fed did — and I was part of that group — is we front-loaded a tremendous market rally, starting in 2009.

     

    It’s sort of what I call the “reverse Whimpy factor” — give me two hamburgers today for one tomorrow."

    Why would the Fed want to engineer a hollow rally in stocks? As I have said in the past, they did this because they know that the average American watches about 15 minutes of television news a day and gauges the health of the economy only on whether the Dow is green or red. From 2009 to 2015, the Fed felt it needed to support markets through fiat and keep the public placated and apathetic.

    Stocks and bonds were not the only assets being propped up by the Fed, though. In tandem, oil markets were artificially inflated.

    Oil suffered a historic spike in 2008, then collapsed to near $40 (WTI). Starting in 2009 and the initiation of major stimulus measures by the Fed, oil prices came back with a vengeance; almost as if the spike in 2008 was merely a measure to psychologically prepare the public for what was to come. In 2010 prices climbed near the $90 mark, then in 2011 they peaked at around $115 a barrel.

    Then, something magical happened – in December, 2013, the Fed announced the Taper of QE3, something very few people predicted would actually happen (you can read this article breaking down why I predicted it would happen).

    The taper involved slowly cycling out Fed purchases a month at a time. By mid-2014 the taper was nearing completion. Suddenly, oil markets began to tank. By October, 2014 the Fed finished the taper and oil collapsed, from $95 a barrel to a low of under $30 a barrel at the beginning of 2016. The correlation between the Fed taper and the overwhelming drop in oil prices is undeniable. Clearly, high oil prices were primarily dependent on Fed QE.

    While equities fluctuated heavily after the end of QE3, they were still supported by the Fed’s other pillar – near zero interest rates. NIRP allowed the Fed to continue funneling cheap or free money to banks and corporations so they could keep stock buybacks rolling, but oil was done for.

    Now, until recently, oil markets have NOT reflected the true state of the global economy. All other fundamental indicators have been in decline since the crash of 2008, including global exports, imports, the Baltic Dry Index, manufacturing, wages, real employment numbers, etc. Oil consumption in the U.S., according to the World Economic Forum, has sunk to lows not seen since 1997. Current levels of oil consumption are FAR below projections made in 2003 by the Energy Information Administration. By most tangible measurements, we never left the crisis of 2008.

    Oil demand continued to fall but prices remained high because of Fed intervention. My theory: As with stocks, the Fed at that time needed to pump up the only other indicator the mainstream might notice as a sign of dangerous deflation – energy prices.  Dwindling demand is the real problem being hidden in chaos surrounding arguments over production.  The establishment prefers we focus completely on supply while ignoring the warnings of falling demand.

    QE was the first pillar to be pulled from the false recovery, and oil markets plunged. At the end of 2015, the Fed removed the second pillar of NIRP and raised interest rates. OPEC members met to discuss a possible production freeze agreement but the conference failed to produce anything legitimate. This resulted in stocks crashing in extreme volatility to meet up with oil.

    Then something magical happened once again. In mid-February, OPEC members and non-members arranged yet another meeting, this time with much fanfare and steady rumors hinting at a guaranteed production freeze deal. Oil began to climb back from the brink, and stocks rallied over the course of six more weeks.  All eyes were on Doha, Qatar and the oil agreement that would "save markets".

    I bring up the recent history of oil markets because I want to give some perspective to those people who suffer from a disease I call "ticker tracking".  This disease causes extreme short attention span issues and loss of long term memory.  The dopamine addiction of ticker tracking makes people forget about long term trends and their relation to the events of today, to the point that they ignore all fundamentals in the name of watching little red and green lines day in and day out.

    For example, the fact that the Doha meeting failed but did not result in an immediate and massive slide in oil and stocks sent ticker trackers crowing that the market "will never be allowed to fall".  Their affliction keeps them from realizing that the effects of Doha, like any other major financial event in the past, take TIME to set in.  Not to mention, they seem oblivious to the implications of oil struggling to move comfortably beyond $40 a barrel.

    Remember, oil was around $60 (WTI) six months ago, and had held over $100 (WTI) for years before then.  The crash in oil markets has ALREADY happened, folks.  What we are witnessing today is the last vestiges of that crash playing out in extreme volatility.  Now we wait for equities to fall and meet oil, as they did at the beginning of 2016, and as they eventually will again.

    Are stocks tracking oil prices? It may not be an absolute correlation, and they do tend to decouple at times, but the overall trend has been consistent; when oil falls, stocks loosely follow.

    The Doha meeting was always a farce; that much was obvious before it even took place. Bloomberg along with other media outlets were planting rumors of backroom deals between Russia and Saudi Arabia before the Doha event which would solidify a production freeze. Numerous mainstream “experts” claimed an agreement was essentially a sure thing. Even some skeptics within the liberty movement were doubtless that a deal was certain because “the internationalists would never allow oil prices to continue to drag on the public perception of the economy.”

    First, I am not a believer in the idea that global economic decisions are really made at these meetings. Any nation that has a central bank that is tied to the Bank of International Settlements and the International Monetary Fund is a CONTROLLED nation. Period. Economic arrangements are handed down from on high, not debated spontaneously in open forums. Read Harper’s 1983 article on the BIS titled “Ruling The World Of Money” for more information on how globalists control the economic policies of nations.

    Second, even if a person believes that such vital economic decisions as a global oil production freeze are decided in closed meetings while the press waits just outside, why would anyone buy into the Doha event?

    I am not quite sure why some people were gullible enough to think that after 15 YEARS of oil producers refusing to come together on any form of meaningful agreement they would suddenly shake hands this year. The only hope markets had was the possibility that the Doha meeting would result in an empty deal that they could spin in the mainstream news as a legitimate “production freeze.” Apparently they won’t even be getting that.

    The Doha talks ended in failure. All the signs said this would happen. As I wrote in my article “Lost Faith In Central Banks And The Economic End Game”:

    For anyone who was betting on oil markets to continue their rally past the $40 per barrel mark, there was a lot of bad news. Saudi Arabia crushed optimism by announcing that it would not be entertaining a “production freeze” proposal unless ALL other oil producing nations, including Iran, also agreed to it.

     

    Iran then doubly crushed optimism by announcing an increase in production rather than committing to a freeze.

     

    Russia then administered the final blow by releasing data showing that their oil output had risen to historic levels, indicating that they will not be entering into any agreement on a production freeze.

     

    Besides a recent overly optimistic (and rather suspicious inventory draw) which has caused a short term rebound, all indicators show that oil will be headed back to the lows seen at the beginning of this year.

    The effects of the Doha failure were delayed by a convenient labor strike in Kuwait, which caused algo trading computers to buy en masse despite the negative news.  As I pointed out on Monday, though, the Kuwait situation would be very short lived.  Now, it is time to watch and wait for Saudi Arabia and Iran to begin battling over market share and increasing production even more.  These things take a little time to develop.

    Currently oil has dropped back below $40(WTI) and markets are extremely volatile. I do not believe the failure of the Doha meeting alone will translate to a fantastic drop in stocks. But, I do believe that it is a very heavy straw added to the camel's back, and there is a negative trend developing before our very eyes that will become apparent in the next couple of months.

    As I have said in the past, a market entirely supported by rumors and hearsay can rally quickly, but also lose all gains at the drop of a hat. What the Doha debacle represents is a signal that the establishment is incrementally abandoning support for market systems.  This is translating to a loss of faith in central banks and major financial institutions.

    On top of this, look at the incredible amount of misinformation and misdirection that went into Doha, now completely exposed. The truth is crystal; the MSM lied and obfuscated helping the establishment to drive up oil prices and stocks, all for a mere six to eight weeks of market security.  As soon as these lies were revealed, volatility began to return.

    If the oil market bubble can implode (as it already has) in such a way due to the striking of fundamentals, then stocks can also be destabilized as well. It will happen, and I believe 2016 is the year it will happen.

    There are those out there that miscalled how the Doha meeting would end because they were blinded by a particularly dangerous bias; they have assumed that central banks and internationalists want or need to continue propping up markets indefinitely. This is not necessarily true. In fact, I have outlined time and again evidence showing that they are planning the opposite. That is to say, they are planning to deliberately bring down markets in a controlled manner.

    Oil was the most recent system to be undermined, and stocks will likely follow before the year is out. The fall in oil and the circus at Doha signals a change in strategy by the globalists. It signals a shift towards the controlled demolition of our economy and the centralization of fiscal power into a single global administrative entity. Order out of chaos.

    There is a steady stream of events in the next few months that can be used as a steam valve for sinking global markets. Watch the April Fed meeting carefully. The Fed recently held two “emergency meetings” along with a third surprise meeting between President Barack Obama and Fed Chair Janet Yellen. The last time such a meeting occurred the Fed hiked rates less than a month later. I expect that the Fed will raise rates once again either this month or in June.

    Also, watch for the Brexit (the British exit from the EU) referendum in June. Such a development would greatly shock an already unsteady Europe as well as the rest of the West.

    And, of course, watch for trends in oil and stocks, but do not get caught up in the day-to-day mindlessness of ticker tracking. It is pointless and will not help you to understand what is happening economically. In any economic crisis, stocks are the LAST indicator to turn negative and daily analysis by itself is in no way a crystal ball.

    The next couple of months should be very interesting. Stay vigilant.

  • George Soros Warns "China Resembles US In 2008", Hard Landing "Practically Unavoidable"

    China's credit growth in March (and $1 trillion surge in total social financing in Q1) is a "warning sign" according to billionaire George Soros, "because it shows how much work is needed to stop the slowdown." Speaking at an event in new York this evening, Soros commented on "troubling developments" in China, the anti-corruption drive's impact on capital outflows and the real-estate bubble "feeding on itself." His conclusion, rather ominously, was that despite all the naysayers and fiction-peddlers, China "resembles US in 2007-8," before credit markets seized up and spurred a global recession.

    As Bloomberg reports, Billionaire investor George Soros said China’s debt-fueled economy resembles the U.S. in 2007-08, before credit markets seized up and spurred a global recession.

    China’s March credit growth figures should be viewed as a warning sign, Soros said at an Asia Society event in New York on Wednesday. The broadest measure of new credit in the world’s second-biggest economy was 2.34 trillion yuan ($362 billion) last month, far exceeding the median forecast of 1.4 trillion yuan in a Bloomberg survey and signaling the government is prioritizing growth over reining in debt.

     

    [ZH – f one adds up the Total Social Financing injected in the first quarter, one gets a stunning $1 trillion dollars in new credit, or $1,001,000,000,000 to be precise, shoved down China's economic throat. As shown on the chart below, this was an all time high in dollar terms, and puts to rest any naive suggestion that China may be pursuing "debt reform." Quite the contrary, China has once again resorted to the old "growth" model where GDP is to be saved at any cost, even if it means flooding the economy with record amount of debt.

     

    With China's debt/GDP already estimate at 350%, how much longer can China sustain this stunning debt (and by definition, deposit) growth continue?]

     

    Soros, who built a $24 billion fortune through savvy wagers on markets, has recently been involved in a war of words with the Chinese government. He said at the World Economic Forum in Davos that he’s been betting against Asian currencies because a hard landing in China is “practically unavoidable.” China’s state-run Xinhua news agency rebutted his assertion in an editorial, saying that he has made the same prediction several times in the past.

    Soros then went on to note that China’s capital outflow is a growing phenomenon driven by the nation’s anti-corruption campaign, which makes people nervous and spurs them to pull money out, and added that…

    China’s decoupling of the yuan from the U.S. dollar can help rebalance the currency.

     

    The linking to a basket of currencies is a “very positive, healthy” development for world.

    Finally in an ironic twist for a man who has all too often used the press for his own ends…

    China’s lack of a free press is “troubling development".

    Of course one should bear in mind that Soros is among those who are betting heavily on the eventual devaluation of The Yuan against the USD, and as we noted previously, the cracks are starting to show… As the Chinese corporate bond market begins to break…

     

    At least 64 Chinese firms have postponed or scrapped planned note sales this month, six times more than the same period a year earlier.

    And as BofA's David Cui explains, if poorly handled, they may cause significant financial instability…

    Since 2015, eight SOE bond issuers have run into repayment problems; four since February. We believe that the sharply accelerating pace and the growing chance of genuine defaults are largely behind the recent widening of credit spreads (Bond yield rising, credit spread widening & impact on stocks, Apr 15). In our view, any major SOE bond default would be difficult for the financial system to handle – as it is unexpected, it could lead to panic selling/a credit crunch (2016 Year-Ahead: what may trigger financial instability, Jan 3). At this stage, we expect that most problematic SOE bonds, if not all, will get largely bailed out. But this is a key risk that we need to monitor for the equity market outlook.

    Chart 1 shows the dates when the potential defaults were first reported vs. the credit spread of 5Y AA-rated enterprise bonds (more details on the bonds, Table 1). Among the eight, Tianwei, Erzhong, Sinosteel, China Coal Huayun and China Railway Materials are central SOEs; Guangxi Nonferrous, Yun Feng and Dongbei Special Steel are local ones. The media reported that some of these SOEs actively sought defaults in order to lessen their debt burdens – a few even reshuffled their assets in preparation (Caixin, Apr 18). This clearly raises the chance of genuine defaults in the bond market’s mind, in our view.

     

    Based on our assessment, the dynamics among the key stakeholders are as follows: some SOEs want to default; many local governments may lack the financial resources to save their SOEs from defaulting; the central government has the resources (after all, it can print), but needs to balance short-term financial stability with moral hazard concerns; the bond underwriters, many of them banks that lend to the same SOEs, need to balance financial interests against the risk of reputation damage and potential lawsuits; bond holders may go on a buying strike to force bail-outs.

    At this stage, we expect the central government and the bond underwriters to largely come up with the money to prevent any significant default of SOE bonds. It appears to us that, leading up to the 19th Party’s Congress in late 2017 (when a new group of leaders will be officially announced), a top priority of the central government is to prevent a financial crisis. For banks, the cost of bail-outs could be hidden for quite some time, so the incentive for them to suppress defaults is strong, in our view. Actually, there was at least one case in which a listed bank used its WMP under management to cover a defaulting bond ((Shadow banking default, pace accelerated sharply since mid-2015, Apr 7).

    If our expectation is right, the bond market could calm down as soon as it sees signs that bail-outs are the likely scenario. This would kick the can down the road, using liquidity to paper over a solvency issue.

    If, against our current expectation, the government/underwriters keep in mind:

    Implicit guarantee & contagion risk: SOEs default on loans all the time, but banks don’t “panic” unless there is a deposit run. However, the same stability cannot be maintained as easily in the shadow-banking sector. The shadow-banking sector is largely a market where greed, fear and herd mentality reign supreme. For years, bond buyers believed that bonds issued by any government-related entity, including SOEs and LGFVs, were bullet-proof. If this perceived “implicit” guarantee is broken, at a minimum, credit spreads would widen sharply and, at the worst, panic selling could develop, generating a negative spiral. Moreover, contagion risk could be high: if this “promise” is broken, will the market still believe in perceived government guarantees elsewhere, including those on RMB, the A-share market or housing prices?

     

    Expensive valuation: before the latest widening, credit spreads for AAA and AA+ rated LGFV bonds and enterprise bonds (largely SOEs’) were very narrow, at between 50-100pbs. As a result, the risk of holding on to these bonds is asymmetrical, unless one believes that the government will lower the risk-free rate significantly going forward (Bond yield rising, credit spread widening & impact on stocks, April 18). As a result, the market is biased toward selling at the moment, by our assessment.

     

    Leverage: the more transparent part of bond leverage is via repos and structured funds, which appear manageable at this stage (Bond market: leverage & potential defaults, 23 Oct 2015). However, a risk is that there could be significant amount of hidden leverage. Anecdotally, some banks provide loans to WMPs under their management to buy bonds, so the WMPs can achieve the “promised” returns to WMP buyers (currently, around 4% p.a.)

     

    A lack of transparency: the most important buyers of bonds in China include WMPs managed by banks, brokers and fund subsidiaries, banks themselves, money market funds and bond mutual funds, and insurers. While risk responsibility is clear-cut for most bond buyers, it is not so for the WMPs. Legally speaking, WMP buyers own the downside risk. However, the way that WMPs are sold in China has led many buyers to believe that these products are essentially term deposits. As a result, if financial institutions decide to pass on some of the default losses to these buyers, they may stop buying en masse, essentially generating a “bank” run in the shadow-banking sector (Risk of bank-run WMPs is rising, Feb 28). By the way, if the financial institutions, including banks, allow some SOE bonds to default, they will most likely pass on at least some of the losses. If they have to bear the losses themselves, they’d be much better off bailing out the bonds in stealth before the defaults, both financially and politically.

    Even without a panic, if the bond market becomes more cautious as a result of SOE bond defaults, there could be negative implications on credit flow, credit cost, economic growth, commodity demand, the RMB and the stock market.

  • Does Saudi Arabia Have $750 Billion In Assets To Sell?

    As we reported over the weekend, based on NYT info, the Saudi finance minister said the kingdom would sell up to $750 billion in Treasury securities and other assets if Congress passed a bill that would allow the Saudi government to be held responsible for any role in the September 11, 2001 terror attacks. Senators Chuck Schumer of New York and John Cornyn of Texas introduced the “Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act (JASTA) last fall, but the legislation seemed to gain some new traction after a related segment on 60 Minutes earlier this month.

    The punchline, of course, was that Saudi officials indicated they would sell its dollar-denominated assets if the law passed to avoid having those assets frozen by American courts.

    But does Saudi Arabia even have $750 billion of assets to sell?

    For the answer we go to Stone McCarthy who note that while they can’t answer that question definitively – recall that the exact amount of Saudi Treasury holdings remains a mystery as it is not broken out separately – here’s what they do know from the Treasury International Capital (TIC) data.

    First, the Treasury doesn’t specifically report Saudi Arabia’s holdings of U.S. securities. Instead, Saudi Arabia’s holdings are combined with the holdings of the following countries into a category called Asian exporters: Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and United Arab Emirates.

     

    At the end of January, Asian oil exporters held $563.6 billion of U.S. securities, with Treasuries and U.S. equities accounting for 92.2% of the total. Treasury holdings totaled $268.2 billion.

     

     

    These figures reflect holdings that Treasury can directly attribute to the Asian oil exporting countries. Regular readers of our updates on the TIC data know that foreign investors often hold securities at custodial institutions in other countries. For example, in February, the five major custodial centers held $1.1 trillion of Treasury securities. It’s possible that Saudi Arabia has holdings of securities parked in custodial accounts, but there’s no way to know that for sure from the TIC data.

     

    Also keep in mind that as we have previously reported, the Saudis were said to have been one of the most aggressive sellers of US-denominated assets in late 2015 and early 2016 to fund the country’s budget deficit as Petrodollar revenues collapsed.

    So, in short, the answer is nobody knows for sure, but if the Saudis did have $750 billion several months ago, they probably have far less as of this moment.

  • The 2016 "Rage, Fear, & Anger" Election: Ron Paul's Deep Dive Into The Real Issues

    Ron Paul offers his detailed assessment of the 2016 presidential campaign this far. This is no candidate play-by-play, but a look at the strong undercurrents in society that are driving the debate. The people are very angry. But why? And what should be done about it?

     

    Full Speech (via RonPaulLibertyReport.com), [yes it's long but grab a glass of wine – or bottle of scotch – and comprehend what America faces]

    THE MIDDLE-CLASS RAGE, FEAR AND ANGER

    The middle class, which as defined by politicians now includes almost everyone, is angry, fearful, and filled with rage. When politicians address this group it’s frequently defined as “populism,” of which there are many varieties. Whether liberals, conservatives, libertarians, socialists, or authoritarians, when the people become restless and angry, demanding change, the politicians pay attention. This reflects a need to appeal to the masses, and a populist message is well received. But there is never real agreement on the analysis and suggested solutions to the problems. Instead, scapegoats are easily found. Economic understanding is not of high priority, and demagoguery is a useful tool for politically mobilizing the “victims.” Since there are real reasons given for the conditions that exist, competition arises among those who want to take charge of the crisis and benefit politically. This only increases the anxiety and anger of the people, who see themselves as victims of an unfair system.

    Until the political economic crisis became readily apparent, most politicians were unaware of the rapidly increasing distortions in wealth distribution. The dangers are conveniently ignored because most people live for the short term. If one is doing well financially, even though the system is financed with the whole country living beyond its means, worrying about preparing for a rainy day seems like wasted energy. However the payment is now coming due, and because few plan or understand it, any threat to benefits – both earned and unearned – creates great anxiety. Fear of being squeezed out of a share of the benefits that come with government intervention becomes the driving force for the whole country. The one group that seems the least worried about current conditions is the “one percent” who are financially secure by living off the special interest financial system. This does not include the wealthy who are financially rewarded for providing products and services that consumers choose to buy.

    But even the one percent who benefit from government programs and the monetary system are concerned that the current uprising will interfere with their privileged position.

    The size, determination, and anger of the current populist uprising is signaling that huge changes are coming both politically and economically. This generates a competitive blame-game when politicians get involved and try to benefit from the chaos. Republicans blame the Democrats and the Democrats blame the Republicans for the problems. It’s never an issue of philosophy but rather partisanship, personalities, or simply blaming poor management. False perceptions are commonplace as a consequence of government-controlled education that steers people away from the sad realities of economic planning that the people have blindly accepted for many decades.

    The fear and anger are only increased by the combination of a failed but never-questioned economic policy, and the demagogues, either ignorant or malicious, who provide magical promises to erase the injustices that are clearly visible.

    Though the nature of the breakdown is an economic issue caused by excessive government, those suffering – and the politicians who claim they can restore prosperity – demand more government intervention in our lives and in the economy.

    The entitlement mentality is now seen as a fundamental right even though it depends on government use of force to transfer wealth from one group to another. The liberal mantra has always been that the use of force backed up by guns is legitimate and moral. This is accepted as being morally superior to voluntarism for helping the poor. The irony is that it’s precisely this philosophy that impoverishes the middle class, increases the poverty of the poor, and provides the unearned benefits of the crony capitalists who were the recipients of the great bailout in 2009.

    We are witnessing the end of an era, but since denial and ignorance prevails few are aware of it. The current special interest entitlement system is on its last legs, but the recipients and the political power brokers believe a change in leadership is all that is needed. It’s not the system that’s at fault, they argue, it’s only better management that is required. It is readily apparent that the failure of this approach is leading to more fear and anger. 

    Too often the anger is thought to be a partisan issue. The claim is either that it’s all President Obama’s fault or George W. Bush’s fault – yet both parties have followed the same false philosophy of interventionism in both domestic Keynesianism and international empire-building, putting them both at fault.

    The people searching for answers conclude the government constantly lies to them. It’s easy to see the system rewarding those who control political power. Concern and understanding the inequities in wealth distribution are not authentic. Ignorance prevails even for the well-intentioned, which results in a deadly erosion of middle class wealth. Debt and deficits are not a serious concern, and both parties continue the endless wasteful spending that only aggravates the pervasive economic inequities that drive the people’s fears.

    Most Americans, now more than ever, have become aware of the terrible conditions the Federal Reserve has caused by its policies that result in ever more distortions in the transfer of wealth to the very wealthy at the expense of the middle class. Many people remain apathetic as to the details of Federal Reserve policy, but others recognize that the Fed is the financier of the welfare state and the endless wars that consume wealth. Our ability to issue the reserve currency of the world gives us a free ride for unlimited spending, debt, and borrowing. 

    Middle class anger results because the evidence is now available that the system is failing and the politicians offer only vague platitudes and rash promises that few citizens believe. The factions that compete for government benefits become more competitive and angry as they see the financial pie shrinking and the ability of government to deliver on their promises failing.

    When benefits, seen as entitlements, shrink, the recipients become fearful and angry and demand political action. This means more handouts, whether it’s for the rich or poor, without any understanding as to why the system is failing. The demagogues, who are aware of the problem, are quick to use this discord to gain greater political power while ignoring the true nature of the problem and the changes needed.

    It’s easy for presidential candidates to respond to legitimate concerns that have prompted the anger and fear. But if there is little understanding of the true nature of the problem and the proposed solutions, this won’t help to quiet the disgruntled electorate. The groups that claim they are being mistreated more than others will continue to be varied and increasing in numbers.

    Slogans and clichés, though they have been helpful to the politicians in the past, will not be believed and will only increase the anger. This leads the candidates to compete to be the most authoritarian in their promises to take care of everybody’s demands.

    The problems have been developing for almost 100 years. Progressivism, which was accepted in the early part of the 20th century, cannot be reversed by any single election. Vague political promises to patch up the system currently being used will no longer suffice.

    Real wages and the standard of living of the average American family have dropped in the 21st century and are almost where they were back in 1971 – the year we completely abandoned the gold standard. The ongoing crisis is deeply structural and not a management problem. Those who still spout the idea that stopping waste, fraud, and abuse in order to finance the perpetual demands of the people without a major overhaul of our political and economic system have no credibility and the people know it. Too many remain convinced that debt is not a problem and more debt and more monetary inflation is what is needed to restore economic growth. The masses have been taught and conditioned to believe that unlimited government spending and debt is the solution and not a cause of the crisis.

    But, it is a problem. As long as our politicians and the American people remain in denial, the problems will get much worse, the anger will accelerate, and violence in our cities will increase.

    The current ongoing destruction of the middle class and the anger it causes are the big issues we face. Economic conditions are the overriding issue, but the least understood. Most Americans are aware that the politicians are in over their heads and are not providing any sensible answers to the dilemma. Believing that a left or right wing noisy demagogue will save us is wishful thinking.

    Ignorance of economics has allowed years of excessive spending, but that is coming to an end. The entitlement mentality claims it’s a strictly moral issue for the government to take care of people in need. A combination of bad economic policy and confused morality has created the conditions that are threatening us today – not only in the US but worldwide as well.

    We must wake up and realize that much of the wealth the average American has enjoyed for decades has been an illusion, built on debt and a bizarre form of money. But the payment is now coming due and no one wants to accept the obvious: we are unable to pay for our extravagant spending on domestic welfare to both the rich and poor, while maintaining an unaffordable world empire. The result has only been anger. There is no understanding that market forces are now required and that the debt must be liquidated in order to restore economic growth to the system.

    The question of who must pay is a major political and economic one. Currently the middle class is aware of a major problem, but doesn’t have the foggiest understanding as to the causes or the solutions. So far the penalty has fallen on the shoulders of the middle class with a loss of good jobs, inflation, and a lot lower standard of living – something the government is unwilling to acknowledge. The fact that there’s a lack of understanding of economic policy contributes to the growing socio-economic crisis and the fear and anger that continue to worsen.

    The politicians are scurrying around searching for those they can blame for the crisis. Actual answers from the candidates are secondary to who achieves the political power to distribute a shrinking economic pie.

    WHO’S TO BLAME?

    Who gets blamed depends solely on the political persuasion of the accuser. If it comes from a leftist politician it’s always free markets, profits, not enough government transfer payments to the poor, not enough government spending, and of course, greed – regardless of how one’s money was earned. The solution is always to raise taxes.

    If it comes from a right or populist politicians, it’s immigrants, China’s unfair trade and currency policies, threats of terrorism, Mexico border policies, and an urgent need to sacrifice liberty for safety, xenophobia, or not enough militarism. Too often the blame is couched only in partisan terms – it’s the Democrats fault; it’s the Republicans fault; or it’s all Obama’s fault or George W. Bush’s fault. Philosophic views are not important, only effective demagoguery is.

    Too often it leads to a desire for a tyrannical type of government, coming from both the far left and the far right, that makes rash promises as to the ease with which the problems will be solved. We’re constantly being told that what we need is a new tougher boss who will get things done, without knowing exactly what policies will be pursued.

    It’s easy to find scapegoats – either racially motivated or based on faulty economic thinking. Little blame is placed at the door of the Federal Reserve’s ridiculous monetary policy, which has been so destructive. Negative interest rates are not topics in the presidential debates or the campaigns. Simply, one side blames economic downturn on the free market and another side blames the lack of tariffs and too much labor competition. Political changes are much easier to bring about by placing blame than by getting people to understand the true cause of our economic problems. The sad part is, it’s the economic explanation of poverty and the unfair distribution of wealth that is the issue that drives all political rhetoric while searching for scapegoats. The answers are out there, but we have a long way to go to convince the citizens and the leadership in this country who claim that more government is the solution.

    The fear of ISIS is used to justify the dangerous foreign policy we follow – a policy that has significantly contributed to the economic crisis, with trillions of dollars spent in recent decades on unwise militarism. Blaming foreign terrorism for our economic and debt crisis may have been a goal of Osama bin Laden, but only we can take the responsibility for the spending excesses for which we are now being forced to pay.

    There’s been little disagreement among the candidates that sacrificing personal liberty under today’s circumstances is required to provide security. It’s easy for the politicians to blame too much liberty – both economic and civil – as the problem. There should be little doubt that our crisis does not come from too much freedom, yet this issue is of no concern for the candidates.

    Some blame the crisis on inefficiency in government management and claim that ridding the system of waste, fraud, and abuse will be enough to solve our fiscal problems and control the deficits. Therefore nothing needs to be cut, or so they say. There’s no recognition that government by its very nature is based on theft, threat of violence, and control by the privileged few.

    Blaming various social groups instead of flawed policies is a frequent exercise. Racial distinctions are convenient for gaining a special benefit and are the source of social and economic friction. There’s no incentive to objectively see cause-and-effect in the problems that generate fear and anger. This makes it very difficult to unemotionally solve the injustices that our system of government planning has generated.

    Equal justice under the law is constantly being abused. It’s easy to blame racism for all the problems while ignoring the war on drugs and true causes of poverty, which are the major contributing factors to our dilemma.

    The authoritarians cannot resist blaming free markets and sound money for our economic ills and they never make an effort to distinguish between free markets and crony capitalism in their accusations. Ignorance and a desire to increase the role of government in our everyday life provide a convenient argument for a bigger and more intrusive government. Today even declared socialists are well received with their promises of unlimited “free stuff.”

    The defenders of central economic planning, a powerful central bank, sacrificing liberty for security, and foreign interventionism to maintain an empire will never blame themselves for their contributions to the crisis. Therefore, expect anger and fear to accelerate. Do not expect the 2016 election to enlighten the people or the politicians.

    Big government enthusiasts are always looking outward and for others to blame. But without some introspection it is guaranteed that the social friction now building will get worse. False blame creates bad solutions.

    Terrorism is a real threat. The consensus of both Republicans and Democrats is that the only cause is “radical Islam.” Any other suggestion elicits charges of un-Americanism and a willingness to ignore danger. It is suggested that any support for those who seek a peaceful resolution to international problems are unpatriotic and endangering our country. Claiming our foreign policy of occupation and preemptive war significantly contributes to the danger of terrorism is unthinkable, but suggesting that we carpet bomb countries in the Middle East draws loud cheers. This is hardly a setting for making our country safe from terrorism. Blaming others for our failed policy of maintaining a world empire while never looking at our own shortcomings is acceptable to most Republicans and Democrats.

    Not only do the demagogues blame others for our foreign policy failings, they also blame others for our weak economy. The threat of terrorism, that we helped to create, is also used to justify our government’s attack on civil liberties here at home. The politicians never assume responsibility for our out-of-control budgets since neither party truly believes that deficits are a serious problem. In fact, both sides cooperate in spending and ignoring the deficits because both sides want to increase spending. Sometimes it’s for domestic welfare and other times the spending is for “rebuilding” the military; most of the time they want both.

    The most significant economic problems we face today – the $210 trillion of unfunded liabilities, the $19 trillion national debt, along with our overblown foreign debt – are dealt with by ignoring them as the platitudes and excuses flow.

    The financial markets will eventually make it clear that the debt has become the most significant issue. It’s crucial that proper blame is placed on the spenders and Keynesian apologists who argue it’s not a problem. Without proper blame, understanding how to achieve economic growth is impossible. The people are justified in being fearful and angry because the magnitude of the crisis is becoming more evident every day, and they no longer believe what the leaders of the country have been telling them. Wishful thinking for a political savior to rise up and rescue us is just that: wishful thinking.

    Lack of knowledge and understanding of the crisis has ignited hatred between the factions seeking to take charge, escape blame, and satisfy the demands of the current victims. As the truth of the seriousness of our crisis becomes more apparent, only a few are reassured that there is a politician who has an answer. It has been suggested that the description of what we’re facing is that one party is a party of “know nothings” and the other is a party that knows all the “wrong things.”

    REAL ISSUES IGNORED

    Since there has been a lot of blame and no understanding, no serious solutions have been offered. The big problem is that in spite of different rhetoric coming from the two parties, there’s little difference in fundamental political and economic beliefs. With the dramatic personal charges being made by the candidates, the important issues are avoided. This must be on purpose. Since no one has answers, it’s best not to draw attention to their ignorance and to the total failure of both political parties to solve the problems.

    The issues avoided are numerous, including especially the debt and the $210 trillion of unfunded liabilities. And even as our as our economy steadily weakens, no serious debate occurs. When the subject comes up it’s for narrow political reasons and no solutions are offered. It’s abundantly clear that to both sides, debt is not of enough concern to actually lead them to entertain the idea that spending should be reduced. That would be bad politics. Both sides support “rebuilding the military” by increasing military spending. Though there is no real threat, we continue to spend about as much as everyone else put together. Domestic welfare spending is treated the same way. Some will continue to claim that cutting waste, fraud, and abuse will provide the funds necessary to continue our spendthrift ways. That’s been talked about for decades to appease the people, without success. There are far too many “debt danger deniers” in Washington to expect spending limitations to emerge.

    The US can still borrow from foreign sources since we are the issuer of the world’s reserve currency. Reality declares that this will come to an end – and soon if we yield to the temptation of placing exorbitant tariffs on our trading partners and starting a trade war.

    For us to continue our spendthrift ways, it will require the Federal Reserve to monetize the debt at an accelerating rate without loss of confidence in the dollar. In the campaign there’s no talk of getting rid of our central bank, as Andrew Jackson did in 1833. Today the authoritarian big spenders on both sides are totally dependent on the Fed in the short run to constantly create massive amounts of new money out of thin air. Yet it’s the middle class that suffers the most from this policy. No one is talking about how the Fed created the crisis, nor do they realize what lies ahead for us as a consequence.

    The ignorance regarding monetary policy makes it impossible to understand the problems of recessions, depressions, inflation, huge debt, massive mal-investments, unfair distribution of wealth between rich and poor, and how the cost of excessive government gets dumped on the middle class and increases the poverty rate. A lack of desire to help is not the problem. The problem is the politicians’ ignorance of the business cycle and their obsession with resisting corrections of the mistakes that are a natural consequence of interest rate manipulation by the Fed. One can only imagine the mistakes that will evolve from negative interest rates! The only saving grace will be that market forces will eventually overwhelm and the needed correction will come, but unfortunately with a lot more pain and suffering.

    So far the only solutions that are offered are more of the same policies that have created this current crisis – a crisis that has generated anger and class warfare, more spending, more debt, more taxes, more regulations, and more warfare. This will lead to a lot less freedom for everyone. Without understanding the problem, anger will continue to build and will result in greater violent confrontations.

    The systematic attack on our privacy, private property rights, and other civil liberties is not an issue getting any significant attention in the 2016 election. The politicians don’t talk about it because they have chosen to ignore it. It’s just not a serious problem from their perspective. Too many people have come to accept the principle that safety and security are far more important than worrying about personal liberty. The 9/11 attacks and a hyped-up fear of ISIS have pushed this false idea that sacrificing liberty for security is necessary. The American people for a long time have been accepting this principle and have come to believe that it’s a fair trade-off. 

    The sad consequence of our foreign policy of interventionism, which has been supported by both Democrat and Republican politicians, has drawn no significant debate in 2016. The only argument has been over management style. No one makes the case for rejecting the notion that we have a moral duty to be the policeman of the world. Our military presence in over 130 countries is of little concern to the candidates. The burden of a $1 trillion per year military budget has elicited no warning that this spending is excessive and a tremendous economic burden to our economy.

    The contest unfortunately is to see who can sound the toughest and most jingoistic regarding dealing with the al-Qaeda and ISIS. This has led to the xenophobic targeting of Islam and refusing to even consider that our bipartisan foreign policy of preemptive war, occupation, and sanctions is a contributing factor in stirring the hatred that indeed makes us all less safe.

    Logic should tell us that continuing the same policy that has stirred up hate and retaliation, that serves as a recruiting tool for the radical jihadists, will only put us in greater danger. The financial burden, the attacks by our own government on our civil liberties, and the greater threat to our national security are all related to our radical interventionist foreign policy, which has been endorsed by both Republican and Democrats for decades.

    There’s been no concern expressed about the collapse of the current Keynesian economic system. This huge financial and social event will significantly increase the fear and anger the American people are already experiencing. Therefore there is no reason to expect any positive changes as a consequence of this year’s election, regardless of who wins the presidency. Unrealistic promises and blaming various scapegoats for our problems will only result in more anger and violence. A better understanding of the problems we face is vital if we expect to preserve both liberty and prosperity.

    Failing to recognize the significance of a major era ending is compounded by the lack of concern and ignorance regarding the “deep state” or the shadow government. This is the unidentifiable special interest groups and individuals who are actually in control of our government – regardless of whether the Republicans or Democrats are nominally in charge. If the American people understood this, they would realize that elections mean little more than pacifying the electorate with the false belief that the people actually have a say in the affairs of state.

    Great concerns about the threat of al-Qaeda and ISIS help direct attention away from the real crimes committed within our borders, like the ill-conceived war on drugs and a justice system out of control. Asset forfeiture is ignored as a serious problem and is strongly supported by law enforcement agencies.

    The original Constitution listed essentially six federal crimes. Today there are 4500 federal crimes on the books and over 400,000 regulations – most written illegally by the executive branch – and we hear nothing about this horrendous legal problem. Our courts do not provide equal justice, which justly infuriates the victims of this system of injustice. Militarization of the police and police brutality are out-of-control, yet the recipients of stolen goods known as “government benefits” have no compunction in demanding the use of violence to get what they have been taught they have a right to have. The result is that inner city violence is not going to be reduced with this election. 

    As the economic crisis worsens and the cities explode, with different factions competing for the handouts, there will be calls for military force and initiating martial law. This is a non-issue in the current political debate and without understanding the significance of this problem will not be recognized. It will only get worse. Most of the candidates have indicated that they would use whatever military force is needed to quell domestic unrest regardless of the Constitution. 

    If there’s a discussion of danger within the United States, the demagogues will say the threat comes from ISIS and is the reason they demand an increase in military spending. They remain in denial that our presence in the Middle East is precisely why there’s a threat here. Unfortunately the worse the conditions get here at home, the greater will be the demand for a more authoritarian leader to take charge and solve the problems they don’t understand. The campaign of 2016 will not bring about any significant improvement in the problems that precipitated the anger and generated our political and financial crisis that they have ignored.

    THE ANSWER

    A philosophic revolution is required. The American electorate is very angry and is demanding changes. Though the anger is justified, the exact cause and correction for it is poorly understood. Economic conditions are a driving force but are not recognized as such. There is no realization that the cataclysmic events that will be associated with an end to the current era require revolutionary changes in our economic and political thinking.

    Since the problems are poorly understood it was guaranteed that a blame game by all concerned – the politicians, the voters, the victims, and the political parties – would result. Scapegoats are found and blamed – guilty or not. All this prompts a variety of answers with wild promises made by socialists and crony capitalists. Demagogues with magic solutions are everywhere to be found.

    Ignorance, along with a struggle for power by those who claim they have the answers, ignores the actual causes of the social divide that are not readily apparent in the current election.  Some are pleased with this lack of discussion since it could identify those responsible for the mess and the failed ideas that need to be rejected.

    A serious discussion about the role of government is needed in order to redirect the failed course upon which we find ourselves. Different types of governments reflect the degree to which the people choose to live in a free society. The form of government that was proposed by the Founders is no longer recognizable. This fact explains the conditions that have generated the anger and fear that is prevalent today. Nobody likes to hear it, but the answers are not available to us unless we change the people’s attitudes about the role the government should play in our lives, the economy, and in the world.

    The only real answer to a failed interventionist/authoritarian system is to replace it with a system of nonintervention and voluntarism. It has to be based on the moral principle of liberty and non-aggression permitting all things peaceful. The false moral principle of government-directed “humanitarianism” must be intellectually refuted as a false God.

    Utilitarianism and pragmatism are code words for avoiding all viewpoints held by those who love liberty and only want to be left alone. Unregulated non-violent voluntarism is rejected as not being beneficial to the “common good.” It is argued that government-mandated equality is superior to any desire for individualism and self-reliance.

    Utilitarianism, pragmatism, and economic planning go together, which always leads to dependency and corruption of economic and political power. Sadly the result is that only the powerful and wealthy special interests thrive. A society that condones even a small amount of authoritarianism is compromised by rejecting the basic tenants of liberty. The system then grows like a cancer until that society is destroyed, which we are now in the process of doing to ourselves.

    When virtue becomes a government mandate, it makes it impossible for individuals to achieve it, which further destroys the social and economic order. Instead the result is: taxes to force people to be charitable; torture to protect the state; drug wars to improve behavior; elimination of privacy to protect government secrecy; thousands of laws and regulations to monitor our every action, all of which are performed in a non-virtuous manner. Only when efforts to improve oneself and others are done in a voluntary and nonviolent manner does it represent virtue. Government efforts, whether it’s to improve one’s personal behavior, legislate economic fairness, or direct the affairs of other countries only serves to inhibit virtue. This leads to society’s collapse, along with war and poverty. For liberty to work society must have a virtuous people who reject the use of all aggressive force, especially when it’s used by government in the name of humanitarianism.

    Even the 400,000 federal regulations and the 4500 federal laws cannot save a system of mandates that violates the moral standards that are vital to a moral society. Free markets are superior to government economic planning. Government rules on personal behavior cannot instill moral standards. Bombs, sanctions, and occupations of other countries cannot make the world safe or more prosperous.

    All these efforts result in the loss of liberty. Under these conditions a republic cannot exist. The system will always fail and the people will suffer. The solution will then have to be in the form of a revolution, hopefully peaceful, and with the insistence on recognizing the natural right to life and liberty.

    The worse the conditions get the louder the demagogues’ promises become. Competition between demagogues produces sharp rebuttals, and supporters of different candidates become overtly competitive and violence is threatened. With no understanding of the cause of the problems, arguments over solutions will vary. Since real evaluations and authentic solutions are absent it only incites more anger.

    Since the 2016 election distracts from the real issues, the correct solutions will not be believable. The system is broken and not fixable. Attempts to do so only lead to frustration that further divides the people. Under these conditions the guilty don’t want to hear the truth and deny it if they do.

    Whistleblowers like Edward Snowden and John Kariakou are despised for telling the truth and are more likely to be punished than those who were criminally negligent.

    H.L. Mencken had it right: “The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out for himself,” and come to recognize that, “the government he lives under is dishonest, insane, and intolerable.” But will the campaign of 2016 answer these concerns?  Remember that while living in an empire of lies, pursuing truth is considered treasonous.

    Simple anger is not equivalent to understanding the predictable evil of authoritarian government. It’s the fear of losing the immoral benefits along with corrupt government that stirs their anger. The failure of the current system reveals the lies, the senseless wars, and the disdain for the people’s rights to life liberty, and property that generates the anger now being expressed by the masses.

    If the people continue to deny that government by its very nature throughout the ages has been notoriously inept, immoral, and corrupt, a solution is not possible. The only result will be a new government based on the same immoral principles. Nothing positive will occur. Basic moral principles of liberty, self-reliance, and strict limits on government power, are required if progress for peace and prosperity is to be achieved.

    This type of government cannot exist without a philosophical revolution regarding the proper role of government in a moral society. The election of 2016 will not guide us in that direction. It doesn’t even deal with the crucial issues of our time, and certainly not with the moral principles underpinning a free society. The conflict between candidates and parties is superficial and personal – without substance. The 2016 election will change nothing. It’s a great distraction from the policies that have delivered the current crisis to us. This is done on purpose since there is general agreement in both parties on the major issues and it’s not to their advantage for the people to understand this.

    The major issues that both parties and their candidates agree upon include: the central bank’s monetary policy; welfarism; federal government involvement in education and medicine; the drug war; privacy abuse; preemptive war; foreign interventionism; and the US as the policeman of the world with increased spending for the military.

    The 2016 election won’t make any difference in any of these areas. The American people continue to be deceived into believing elections are serious affairs that affect our future. The Deep State will remain in charge regardless of the outcome and few will even be aware of the invisible fist that rules over us.

    The whole process is a charade and no policy of substance is debated. The election will turn out like all the rest. The momentum toward bigger and more intrusive government will continue. The process distracts from what is really going on; sometimes out of ignorance and sometimes just out of wishful thinking; sometimes on purpose. The process has everyone looking in all the wrong places for the answers. The answers can only be found in an intellectual revolution that refutes the authoritarians who sanction government-directed aggression in all areas of society. What we need is to define and endorse the proper role of government in a free society. There is no serious talk in the campaign of the crucial issues that need corrected if we expect to escape from the mess we’re in.

    Following are a few of those concerns that should be addressed. 

    There is:

    • No talk of liberty and its moral foundation;
    • No talk of how conservatives and liberal authoritarians are equally harmful;
    • No challenge to the entitlement mentality;
    • No challenge to the bipartisan support for empire;
    • No challenge to the unsustainable debt accumulation;
    • No challenge to government secrecy and the government’s violation of the people’s privacy;
    • No concern for the violation of private property rights;
    • No understanding of how our foreign policy endangers our security;
    • No understanding of how free markets regulate economic activity for the purpose of serving the consumers;
    • No concern for government aggression in controlling habits, people’s bodies, thoughts, economic choices, prices, or wages;
    • No condemnation of the current doctrine of preemptive war;
    • No concern for our participation in worldwide organizations that cede political power to the elites at the expense of national sovereignty;
    • No mention of why sanctions are a prelude to war;
    • No demands that the insane war on drugs be ended;
    • No understanding that personality clashes and name-calling is a substitute for dealing with the issues;
    • No awareness of the need for a philosophic answer to our crisis.

    When it’s discovered that excessive government interference in voluntary and peaceful activities is the culprit, it will become clear that the solution can only come by successfully presenting the case for liberty. It will follow that reining in the government will be a necessity – not an option.

    The awakening will arrive when we face a total societal breakdown – once it’s realized that the accumulation of massive debt is unsustainable and the dollar suffers the consequences, which will negatively affect all Americans and many throughout the world. But it also provides an opportunity to open the door to a free society. Without the cost of war and welfare in a new system that accepts the moral principle of free markets, sound money, private property, and voluntary contracts, prosperity and peace will break out.

    The limited role for government in a republic is to provide equal justice for all, including the protection of life, liberty, and property. It becomes destructive when governments overreach and instead become the greatest threat to liberty and justice – something from which we are suffering today.

    Sadly these issues will not cross the minds of the leaders of either major political party at this time in our history. But they will when an upcoming generation of young people, enthusiastic about the cause of liberty and with a growing awareness of the problems, concludes that:

    ?LIBERTY IS THE ANSWER!

  • "Sleepy" ECB Preview: What Every Bank Thinks Draghi Will Do Tomorrow

    Tomorrow's ECB meeting "looks set to be sleepy" according to Saxo Bank's Mads Koefed as Draghi is largely cornered into confirmation he will do "whatever it takes" and some additional details on the corporate bond purchase plan. Most of the sell-side's research suggests the same, as Bloomberg notes, ECB will probably leave the door open for further cuts if needed; but any downside risk for the euro is seen limited, as Draghi stays on hold by reinforcing its dovish stance after the mix of easing measures announced in March with some defense of the efficiency of his policies after recent criticism by Germany.

    The bund market appears to once again pricing in some further deposite rate cuts (deeper into negative territory), but has been disappointed twice now…

     

    And as Saxo's Mads Koefed notes, unlike the explosion of announcements that was the March ECB meeting, today's meeting of the governing council promises to be dull.

    Inflation has ticked up to 0% year-over-year in March from minus 0.2% when looking at the headline series while core inflation climbed back to 1% last month from a one-month visit to 0.8% in February.

    Inflation
     
    Economic activity has remained subdued since the last ECB meeting though the flash manufacturing PMI has climbed to 51.6 from 51.2. The services PMI index declined to 53.1 from 53.3 and overall data – for example, the EuroCOIN series – suggest GDP growth of around 0.3% q/q for Q1.
     
    This comes on the back of a similar print of 0.3% in both Q3 and Q4 of last year.
     
    Lending to households accelerated to 2.2% y/y in February from 1.9% in January with consumer credit climbing at a 5.2% annual rate, the highest level seen since early 2008. Lending to corporations, meanwhile, is evolving more tepidly with growth of just 0.6%.
     
    The M3 measure of the money supply climbed 5% y/y through February, unchanged compared to January.
     
    Lending

     
    Turning to the markets, EURUSD has strengthened by 1.5% since the March 10 meeting to around 1.1340 following a 1.6% move higher on the day. More generally, however, the euro has traded sideways against a basket of currencies (EURJPY, for example, is down 1.9%), but this excludes the 1.2% move during March 10.
     
    Stocks (STOXX50) are 4.8% higher while EURIBOR has fallen.
     
    Taking it all into account, the meeting of the governing council looks to be a sleepy affair with not much new coming to the surface. We may get some additional details on the corporate sector purchase programme (part of the €80bn monthly purchases), but otherwise the stage is set for Draghi to reiterate that the ECB stands ready to combat low inflation while expressing confidence in the measures announced last month. 
     
    The ECB meeting always has the potential to be a market-mover, but this particular one looks destined to be a non-event.
     
    Will Draghi surprise? Again? Most of the sell-side thinks not…
     

    Goldman Sachs (Dirk Schumacher)

    • ECB to keep rates unchanged, Draghi will express confidence that package unveiled in March will help steer CPI toward target
    • Draghi also likely to express ECB’s willingness to respond if downside risks to growth and CPI materialize
    • Draghi will also clarify that further rate cuts remain part of monetary toolbox after his comments in March were interpreted by many as closing the door for further rate cuts
    • Some further details on new CSPP may be published
    • Expects CSPP to be conducted in similar fashion to covered bond and asset-backed securities program, and purchases to take place in primary and secondary market; ECB will decide in discretionary way how much corporate debt to buy
    • Expects an extension of APP to Sept. 2017 from March 2017 currently

    JPMorgan (Greg Fuzesi)

    • No action expected this week; see next round of easing to focus on extending QE program beyond March 2017
    • Chances of further rate cuts may be higher than initially thought
    • ECB concerned about pressure of negative rates on banks and about fueling currency war; that said, incremental deposit-rate cuts still seem possible, as does a tiered reserve charging system; Draghi is likely to clarify the message around this at this week’s press conference

    BofAML (Gilles Moec, Athanasios Vamvakidis)

    • Expect Draghi to defend ECB this week; he could also remind markets that QE is open-ended and won’t stop as long as ECB is missing CPI target
    • Draghi also likely to clarify that another depo-rate cut remains available
    • Expect Draghi to sound dovish but do not see a sustained market impact
    • More sustained EUR weakness requires a critical mass of strong U.S. data and stable global markets allowing Fed to sound more confident
    • Continue to forecast EUR/USD at parity by end-2016, expecting two Fed hikes this year

    BNP Paribas (Ken Wattret)

    • ECB should reiterate this week that it stands ready to take action to deliver on price-stability mandate
    • While expect the door to be left more open to further cut in policy rates than during Q&A session on March, there is limited room for maneuver
    • CSPP details possible but may take longer
    • Expect ECB to follow the template used for current asset-backed security and covered-bond purchase programs, suggesting no specific numeric target for monthly volume of purchases, buying in both primary and secondary markets, and opting for risk sharing

    Citigroup (Guillaume Menuet)

    • Don’t expect any new measure this week
    • Look for more policy measures in coming months including a refi rate cut by 5bp each in Sept., Dec. and March 2017
    • Also expect a QE extension by another 6 months in Sept., adjustment to issue/issuer limit for PSPP to ~40% and 10bp depo-rate cut in March next year

    HSBC (Karen Ward)

    • Draghi to convey the message that ECB can still do more
    • During Q&A, expect questions related to progress with Greece and IMF and on what might happen to Portugal’s access to QE if DBRS downgrades the country on April 29
    • Expects Draghi’s answers to be elusive

    UBS (Reinhard Cluse)

    • Expects a debate on limits of monetary policy, ‘helicopter money’, corporate bond purchases and credit conditions at this week meeting
    • Base-case scenario remains that ECB is “done” now and that it won’t add more stimulus over coming months

    Morgan Stanley (Elga Bartsch)

    • It might be too early yet to get full formal details on planned buying of corporate debt under new CSPP
    • Don’t expect any additional policy measures before 3Q
    • Expect another depo-rate cut of 10bp in 2H and see a near even chance of ECB upping and extending QE

    Natixis (Johannes Gareis)

    • Draghi likely to address recent EUR strength by downplaying comments made at March meeting that policy rates may already have reached the lower bound
    • More details about future corporate-bond purchases and TLTROs in focus this week
    • ECB will take a wait-and-see approach over coming months; from a long-term perspective, CPI might be too weak for ECB to remain on hold; the most likely easing step is an extension of QE program beyond March 2017

    UniCredit (Marco Valli)

    • ECB’s focus remains on implementing several measures already announced; expect a strong, open-hearted defense of ECB policies
    • This week’s meeting is unlikely to generate a meaningful impact on euro
    • ECB is very likely to be unhappy with stronger EUR; however, there is not much Draghi can do about it, at least for now

    Commerzbank (Bernhard Gruenaeugl)

    • Probably too early to add substantial detail on CSPP with still about two months to go before the actual start of the program
    • The question of whether insurance corporations’ seniors could be bought or not should remain a matter of lively debate for now

    Credit Suisse (Peter Foley)

    • ECB is likely to leave the door open to additional policy measures in future if economic situation deteriorates

    Nordea (Aureljia Augulyte)

    • Keep long EUR/USD
    • Market is pricing close to a full 10bps cut in year ahead, so EUR needs a really big surprise to get knocked

    ABN Amro (Nick Kounis)

    • Focus in April meeting will be on details of corporate- bond scheme; ECB will probably reveal a relatively large eligible universe of ~EU750b
    • It would include traditional non-financial corporates as well as “financial corporations other than credit institutions”
    • In this category, there are many funding entities of normal corporates, real-estate corporates and insurers
    • Expects ECB to also include floating-rate notes, bonds that mature within 1 year and those with an amount outstanding less than EU500m

    ING (Petr Krpata)

    • Negative impact on EUR should be very limited as any strong pre-commitment to further easing should be absent
    • It’s increasingly difficult for ECB to materially weaken EUR
    • Despite no real action, there would probably be some dovish comments, whereby ECB stresses downside risks to economic outlook

    BBVA (Roberto Cobo Garcia)

    • Draghi will likely stress that ECB keeps the door open to adopt further easing measures if needed; he will probably remark that further rate cuts aren’t out of the table
    • Expect ECB meeting outcome to be negative for EUR; also expect more details on CSPP

    Credit Agricole (Manuel Oliveri, Valentin Marinov)

    • ECB may not mention EUR but will keep the door wide open to more accommodation
    • While EUR may recover in immediate aftermath, the longer-term risks for currency should be on downside

    Finally we note that EURUSD did drop quite notably today…though still remains considerably stronger post-March meeting…

    “The euro has looked a bit vulnerable," said Shaun Osborne, chief foreign-exchange strategist at Bank of Nova Scotia in Toronto. "There has been some speculative selling ahead of the ECB on the view that Draghi will not do anything tomorrow policy-wise but might sound dovish, and could open the door to lower rates again."

  • The Shocking Reason For FATCA… And What Comes Next

    Submitted by Nick Giambruno via InterntionalMan.com,

    If you’ve never heard of the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA), you’re not alone.

    Few people have, and even fewer fully grasp the terrible things it foreshadows.

    FATCA is a U.S. law that forces every financial institution in the world to give the IRS information about its American clients. Complying with it is a huge financial and administrative burden, measured in hundreds of billions of dollars. It’s a paper shuffler’s dream come true.

    FATCA is the reason the vast majority of banks, brokerages, and other financial institutions outside of the U.S. shun American clients.

    I was just in Singapore, which has one of the soundest banking systems in the world. I can personally attest that banks there treat potential American clients as radioactive liabilities to be avoided.

    This is how FATCA makes it much more difficult to move money outside of the U.S. Combined with other costly, extraterritorial U.S. regulations, the law amounts to de facto capital controls.

    It’s no surprise so few people understand FATCA. Governments and institutions often give their most dangerous laws and schemes dull and opaque names to cloud their true purposes.

    The Federal Reserve is an excellent example of this. After two central banking experiments failed to take root in the 1800s, anything associated with a central bank became deeply unpopular with the public. So, central bank advocates tried a fresh branding strategy.

    Rather than call their new central bank the Third Bank of the United States (the previous two were named the First and Second Bank of the United States, respectively), they gave it a vague and boring name to hide it in plain sight from the average person. They named it the Federal Reserve.

    Unfortunately, these smoke and mirrors worked pretty well. Nearly 100 years later, most Americans don’t have the slightest clue what the Federal Reserve is, what it does, or how it affects them.

    I think the same dynamic is at work with FATCA.

    Ostensibly, FATCA is about cracking down on offshore tax evasion. But I think the U.S. government has another, more sinister motive.

    Let’s peel back the layers of this onion…

    FATCA should bring in around $900 million per year, on average, and that’s an optimistic estimate. However, $900 million would only be a drop in the bucket (around 0.2%) next to the federal government’s $438 billion deficit.

    Even if the U.S. moderately reduces the federal deficit, FATCA revenue would still be a small pittance in comparison.

    This begs the question: Why would the U.S. government go to the enormous cost and trouble of implementing FATCA for such a relatively meager amount of money?

    FATCA on Steroids

    FATCA’s real purpose is not to collect money. It’s to pave the way for a global FATCA, informally known as GATCA.

    You see, complying with FATCA often breaks privacy laws in other countries. To get around this, the U.S. government has negotiated bilateral agreements with pretty much every country in the world. But it’s not practical for each and every country to create its own version of FATCA and accompanying web of bilateral agreements. That would be slow and tedious.

    So, the central economic planners at the G20 and OECD have devised a new “global standard” for the automatic exchange of financial information between governments. It’s called GATCA, and it’s modeled on FATCA.

    In other words, bureaucrats from these supranational institutions are foisting a “FATCA on steroids” on the world.

    This would have been impossible if the U.S. hadn’t cleared the path with FATCA. The G20 and OECD needed the U.S.—the sole financial superpower (for now at least)—to cram its privacy-killing measures down the throats of the rest of the world. No other country could have done it.

    FATCA is only possible because the U.S. carries a big stick: the ability to refuse access to its financial system and the world’s premier reserve currency. Don’t sign up for FATCA, and your country can forget about the vast majority of international trade.

    It didn’t take long for most of the world to fall in line.

    When Russia and China signed on to FATCA, it became a fait accompli. There are no other meaningful countries left to resist it.

    This set the stage for GATCA.

    Unfortunately, GATCA will likely be an irreversible reality in the not-so-distant future. It’s also highly probably that the OECD, the G20, and other organizations will sanction or otherwise blackmail countries that don’t comply. That pressure would likely be too enormous for the vast majority of countries to bear.

    In the end, this means a permanent record of every penny you have ever earned, saved, borrowed, or spent anywhere in the world will be instantly available for analysis and scrutiny by countless government agencies, regardless of any actual or suspected wrongdoing.

    But wait, there’s more!

    If FATCA wasn’t the end game, don’t expect GATCA to be either.

    Let’s peel back the next layer of the onion.

    What Comes Next

    Did you really think all these governments would go through all the trouble of creating the architecture to gather all this financial data… and then just sit on it?

    Of course not.

    They’re going to leverage the data as much as possible. This will have terrifying consequences for the individual.

    It’s no secret that advocates of big government have long fantasized about creating a global tax. Whether it’s the global carbon tax, a worldwide tax on financial transactions, or a UN tax on air and sea travel, all prior attempts haven’t really worked. The infrastructure wasn’t in place.

    However, that could all change with GATCA, which could ultimately make the disturbing dream of a global tax a reality.

    Bankrupt governments, like France and the UK, are also on board with GATCA. It would allow them to fleece and control their citizens more efficiently.

    Strangely, you never hear financially sound countries, like Switzerland, Singapore, or Hong Kong, advocating for FATCA, GATCA, or a global tax. It’s only the failed welfare states drowning in debt. And that’s no coincidence.

    Old Wine in New Bottles

    The government is selling FATCA the same way it originally sold the income tax to Americans: as a measure targeted only at the “rich.”

    Of course, once you give politicians an inch, they take a mile.

    When the federal income tax was introduced in 1913, individuals making up to $20,000 (around $475,000 today) were only taxed at 1%. The top bracket kicked in at $500,000 (around $12 million today) with a tax rate of only 7%.

    Of course, once the infrastructure was in place for the federal income tax, politicians naturally couldn’t resist ramping it up. Eventually, it snowballed into the monster we have today, which thoughtless Americans passively accept as “normal.”

    Expect a similar dynamic and gradualism with FATCA, GATCA, and a global tax.

    What You Can Do

    The government used obscure and boring wording to conceal the true purpose of the Federal Reserve from the average American. It’s done the same thing with FATCA.

    In reality, FATCA is all about setting up the architecture for a global tax.

    Politicians around the world see citizens as milk cows… They merely exist to be squeezed to the last drop.

    That’s why they’re so eager to kill financial privacy with FATCA and GATCA. They’re building a giant tax farm and erecting electric fences to keep the cows—and their milk—from escaping.

    Welcome to the new feudalism.

    Unfortunately, there’s little any individual can do to change the trajectory of this trend. You can only try to save yourself from the consequences of this stupidity.

    Politicians around the world are working hard to build this emerging prison planet. But it’s still possible to escape.

    We recently released a video to show you how. Click here to watch it now.

  • The Smoking Gun: "Document 17" Links Saudi Embassy In Washington To Sept 11

    With the topic of Saudi Arabia’s involvement in the Sept 11 attack on everyone’s lips, if certainly not those of president Obama who is currently in Riyadh where he is meeting with members of Saudi royalty in what may be his last trip to the Saudi nation as US president, many have been clamoring for the information in the suddenly notorious “28-pages” (following the recent 60 Minutes episode) to be released to the public so the US population can finally relegate all those “conspiracy theories” surrounding the real perpetrator behind the Sept 11 terrorist attack to the “conspiracy fact” pile.

    It won’t have to wait that long.

    As The Times writes today, new evidence has come to light of a definitive link between Saudi Arabian officials and the 9/11 terrorist attacks “further raising tensions as President Obama travels to the kingdom.”

    According to the report, Ghassan Al-Sharbi, a Saudi who became an al-Qa’ida bomb maker, is believed to have taken flying lessons with some of the 9/11 hijackers in Arizona but did not take part in the attacks on New York and the Pentagon that killed 3,000 people in 2001.

    He was captured in Pakistan in 2002 and has since been held at Guantanamo Bay. According to a US memo, known as document 17, written in 2003 and quietly declassified last year, the FBI learnt that he had buried a cache of papers shortly before he was captured.

    Think of “Document 17” as a mini version of the “28 pages” whose content has yet to be revealed. The document was written by two US investigators examining the possible roles of foreign governments in the attacks.

    One detail leapt out at the FBI agents from the papers that Sharbi had tried to hide: his US flight certificate was in an envelope from the Saudi embassy in Washington.

    A car pulls into the Saudi Arabian embassy in Washington, AP Photo

     

    And there is your smoking gun, which has been fully available to the US government for the pat 13 years. It should have also been available to the American public.

    Understandably, Brian McGlinchey, the activist who uncovered document 17, asked a simple question: “The envelope points to the fundamental question hanging over us today: to what extent was the 9/11 plot facilitated by individuals at the highest levels of the Saudi government?”

    Here is the problem. As the Times puts it, “president Obama is expected to meet on Wednesday with King Salman, whose kingdom is under pressure from low oil prices, an emboldened Iran and Washington’s tougher stance. The Saudi government threatened last week to dump $750 billion in US Treasury securities and other American assets if congress passes a bill that would clear a path for the families of 9/11 victims to file lawsuits against the kingdom.”

    In other words, Obama will not ask any questions of King Salman, let alone the “fundamental” one.

    So perhaps it is time to get a president who will ask the question: Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, the Democratic presidential candidates, backed the bill, which Mr Obama has signaled he will veto. Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, the leading Republicans in the race, have warned Saudi Arabia that its relationship with the US must change. “Friends do not fund jihadists that are seeking to murder us,” Mr Cruz said.

    Sp even as all of Obama’s potential replacements have at least promised to investigate further, we wonder: just why is Obama so terrified of the US public getting access to the truth?

    If he is so worried about the Saudi liquidation threat, he shouldn’t be: after all the Fed would be deliriously happy at the opportunity to monetize another $750 billion in assets and inject three-quarters of a trillion in fresh “reserves” aka liquidity into the system.

    Meanwhile, Obama has other problems: the US president also faces calls to release a redacted 28-page portion of a joint congressional report on the 9/11 attacks, produced in 2002 and thought to link senior Saudi figures to the plot. He suggested on Monday that a decision was imminent.

    We are confident his “decision” in this matter will be to likewise prevent the truth from emerging, because as Congressman Thomas Massie, a Republican from Kentucky, said: “I had to stop every couple of pages … to rearrange my understanding of history.” No further comment necessary.

    Meanwhile the lies go on.

    Bob Graham, a former chairman of the US senate intelligence committee, has alleged that Saudi Arabia was the principal financier of 9/11. “The effect of withholding [the pages] has been to embolden Saudi Arabia to be a continuing source of financial and human terror resources,” he said.

    Document 17, written by Dana Lesemann and Michael Jacobson, will deepen suspicions. Ms Lesemann is said to have been sacked from the 9/11 commission after she circumvented her boss to access the 28 pages.

    Mr Jacobson was the principal author of the 28 pages, and document 17 hints at his suspicions. “How aggressively has the US government investigated possible ties between the Saudi government and/or royal family and the September 11th attacks?” it asks.

    The answer: not at all. It’s about time the American people asked why not.

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Today’s News 20th April 2016

  • Government Officials Admit to ECONOMIC False Flag Operations

    False flag attacks don’t just involve physical deaths and wars

    They also involve faked economic events and financial casualties.

    For example, two officials of the International Monetary Fund said last month that they needed the threat of an imminent financial catastrophe to force other players into accepting its measures such as cutting Greek pensions and working conditions, and – as the Greek government put it (via Bloomberg) – the IMF was “considering a plan to cause a credit event in Greece and destabilize Europe.”

    High-level officials also admitted to intentionally destroying their own nations’ economies in order to “justify” structural economic reforms.

    For example, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and Japanese central bank officials admitted that they kept Japan’s economy in a deflationary crisis to promote “structural reform” which would allow the Japanese economy to be looted by foreign interests. Japanese central bank officials admitted the same thing.

    Japan Times noted in 2003:

    Official statements by BOJ executives [reveal]: The BOJ can be helpful by not being helpful. The princes recognized that such structural change was so opposed to the special and general interests of most Japanese — citizens, businessmen, bureaucrats and politicians — that it could be achieved only by crippling the economy and preventing its recovery.

    Something similar happened in Thailand and the EU.

    Indeed, the former head of the Bank of England said  last month that the depression in the EU was more or less a “deliberate” policy choice.

    And an economist at insurance giant AIG – and former head of the European Commission’s unit responsible for the European Monetary System and monetary policies – said in 2008 that what European leaders wanted was to create a crisis to force introduction of “European economic government.”

    Indeed, Greece (more), Italy, Ireland (and here) and other European countries have all lost their national sovereignty to the ECB and the other members of the Troika.

    ECB head Mario Draghi said in 2012:

    The EU should have the power to police and interfere in member states’ national budgets.

     

    ***

     

    “I am certain, if we want to restore confidence in the eurozone, countries will have to transfer part of their sovereignty to the European level.”

     

    ***

     

    “Several governments have not yet understood that they lost their national sovereignty long ago. Because they ran up huge debts in the past, they are now dependent on the goodwill of the financial markets.”

    Threats of Economic Terrorism

    The Saudis said they would sell $750 billion in U.S. treasury securities and other assets in the United States if an investigation of Saudi involvement in 9/11 is allowed to occur. This sound like the mafioso who asks: “We wouldn’t want anybody to get hurt, now would you?”

    American banks have carried out the same type of terrorist blackmail. For example, the Tarp bank bailouts in the U.S. were passed using apocalyptic – and false – threats. And they were not used for the stated purpose.

    As I’ve previously reported:

    The New York Times wrote last year:

    In retrospect, Congress felt bullied by Mr. Paulson last year. Many of them fervently believed they should not prop up the banks that had led us to this crisis — yet they were pushed by Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke into passing the $700 billion TARP, which was then used to bail out those very banks.

    Indeed, Congressmen Brad Sherman and Paul Kanjorski and Senator James Inhofe all say that the government warned of martial law if Tarp wasn’t passed:

     

    That is especially interesting given that the financial crisis had actually been going on for a long time, but – instead of dealing with it – Paulson and the rest of the crew tried to cover it up and pretend it was “contained”, and that it was obvious to world leaders months earlier that it was not a liquidity crisis, but a solvency crisis (and see this).

     

    Bait And Switch

     

    The Tarp Inspector General has said that Paulson misrepresented the big banks’ health in the run-up to passage of TARP. This is no small matter, as the American public would have not been very excited about giving money to insolvent institutions.

     

    And Paulson himself has said:

    During the two weeks that Congress considered the [Tarp] legislation, market conditions worsened considerably. It was clear to me by the time the bill was signed on October 3rd that we needed to act quickly and forcefully, and that purchasing troubled assets—our initial focus—would take time to implement and would not be sufficient given the severity of the problem. In consultation with the Federal Reserve, I determined that the most timely, effective step to improve credit market conditions was to strengthen bank balance sheets quickly through direct purchases of equity in banks.

    So Paulson knew “by the time the bill was signed” that it wouldn’t be used for its advertised purpose – disposing of toxic assets – and would instead be used to give money directly to the big banks?

    Senator McCain also says that Paulson pulled a bait-and-switch:

    Sen. John McCain of Arizona … says he was misled by then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. McCain said the pair assured him that the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program would focus on what was seen as the cause of the financial crisis, the housing meltdown.

     

    “Obviously, that didn’t happen,” McCain said in a meeting Thursday with The Republic‘s Editorial Board, recounting his decision-making during the critical initial days of the fiscal crisis. “They decided to stabilize the Wall Street institutions, bail out (insurance giant) AIG, bail out Chrysler, bail out General Motors. . . . What they figured was that if they stabilized Wall Street – I guess it was trickle-down economics – that therefore Main Street would be fine.”

    Even the New York Times called Paulson a liar in 2008:

    “First [Paulson’s Department of Treasury] says it has to have $700 billion to buy back toxic mortgage-backed securities. Then, as Mr. Paulson divulged to The Times this week, it turns out that even before the bill passed the House, he told his staff to start drawing up a plan for capital injections. Fearing Congress’s reaction, he didn’t tell the Hill about his change of heart.Now, he’s shifted gears again, and is directing Treasury to use the money to force bank acquisitions. Sneaking in the tax break isn’t exactly confidence-inspiring, either.”

    What tax breaks is the Times talking about? The article explains:

    A new tax break [pushed by Treasury], worth billions to the banking industry, that has only one purpose: to encourage bank mergers. As a tax expert, Robert Willens, put it: “It couldn’t be clearer if they had taken out an ad.”

    The giant banks also essentially threatened to blow up the American economy if any of them were prosecuted for their massive, economy-destroying fraud.

  • FiGHTiNG FoR US!

    FIGHTING FOR US!

  • Blowout Victory For Donald Trump In New York Primary; Hillary Defeats Bernie: Live Stream

    New York Election Night – Live Streams:

     

    The results are in and as expected, Donald Trump has been immediately projected the GOP winner in New York in what was a blowout victory one in which Ted Cruz will finish third; the only question is by how much and whether he will have (well) over 50% of the vote, although judging by the early results which see him with over 60% of support, he will have little trouble to sweep the majority in most districts.

     

     

    On the democrat side, the results were initially far closer with exit polls putting Hillary just 4 points ahead of Bernie, however as the votes came in it became clear that Hillary's lead was insurmountable, and moments ago CNN declared Hillary Clinton the winner of the democratic primary.

     

    And with that we have tonight's two winners, the only question remaining is how much total delegates will Trump pick up as he strives to avoid a contested convention. 

    * * *

    Update 3: with voting set to close shortly, here is a reminder of what the most recent polls said: Hillary Clinton has a 15 point lead over Bernie Sanders, according to the most recent poll coming out of the weekend. That's more than RealClear Politics average of 12 points, but it's also a relatively small sample size. Betting markets have Clinton at a 95 percent chance of winning.

    Not a lot of suspense on the GOP side. Coming out of the weekend, Donald Trump has a 34 point lead with a 98 percent chance of winning according to betting markets.

    * * *

    Update 2: an exit poll among Republican voters

     

    And one of democrats:

     

    * * *

    Update 1: according to Reuters, with just over an hour left until polling ends, voting in New York has been marred by voting irregularities, following official confirmation that more than 125,000 people were missing from New York City voter rolls and reports of other irregularities.

    New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer ordered an audit of the city elections board after it confirmed the names had been removed from voter rolls. The city has roughly 4 million voters considered active for the presidential primaries.

     

    Stringer complained in a letter to the board that it was "consistently disorganized, chaotic and inefficient." He cited faulty ballot scanners, late-opening polling stations and scant staffing.

    It was unclear what the vote rigging was like on the GOP side.

    * * *

    The race for the Presidential nomination runs through the "must win" state of New York today, where Republican Donald Trump will look to sweep his home state and widen his lead over Ted Cruz and John Kasich. For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton will be trying to fend off Bernie Sanders, who's been on an impressive run as of late and seems to have significant momentum heading into this important primary.

    Here is what the delegate breakdown currently looks like.

    For the Republicans

     

    And the Democrats

     

    Here are the most recent poll results in New York, which are currently showing Trump and Clinton as double digit favorites.

    Republicans

     

    Democrats

     

    ***

    Here are five things to watch for, courtesy of The Hill

    The GOP delegates battle by congressional district

    Trump is carrying a 30-point lead in the polls heading into election day, according to the RealClearPolitics average. He has had over 50 percent support in nearly every poll of the state taken in the last month.

    The GOP front-runner is all but certain to finish in first place statewide, earning him 14 of the state’s 95 delegates.

    But Trump needs to maximize the number of delegates he can squeeze out of the state.

    The remaining 81 delegates will be allocated based on the results in each of the state’s 27 congressional districts.

    If any candidate finishes with more than 50 percent of the vote in a district, he’ll take all of the available delegates there.

    Cruz and Kasich will be looking to keep Trump below the 50 percent mark and finish above 20 percent themselves, which would allow them to at least split the delegates at the congressional district level.

    Every delegate matters for Trump at this point in the race.

    Analysts are forecasting that Trump will finish somewhere close to the 1,237 delegates he needs to clinch the nomination before the Republican National Convention in July.

    If Trump falls short of that mark, even by a few delegates, his path to the nomination will become exponentially more difficult at a contested convention.

    Taking only two-thirds of New York’s delegates would be a disappointment for him. A clean sweep of the state would be a huge victory.

    Can Clinton put Sanders away?

    Public polling indicates that Clinton is poised for a double-digit victory in New York .

    Surveys in the state have consistently shown Clinton holding a lead of somewhere between 10 and 17 points in the state. Sanders has yet to climb to within single digits of Clinton in any poll of New York so far this cycle.

    Clinton’s allies have said they hope to have put the nomination out of Sanders’s reach by the end of the month.

    She begins Tuesday with a lead of over 240 pledged delegates. With 247 additional pledged delegates up for grabs, Clinton can put a significant amount of space between her and Sanders if she wins big.

    But perhaps more important, a convincing victory would allow Clinton to shift her gaze to the general election.

    The Democratic race has taken a nasty turn in recent weeks, and the sooner Clinton can move on, the better it will be for her.

    Sanders’s quest for a game-changing victory

    Sanders has so far won in places where he was expected to do well but lost badly in most of the states where Clinton has been the favorite.

    A victory in a state where he’s the underdog would allow him to be seen as a serious challenger going forward.

    While polls show Clinton maintaining a healthy lead in New York, Sanders has at least succeeded in making the contest appear close.

    Sanders, who previously shied away from harsh criticism,  has ratcheted up his attacks against the front-runner recently.

    And he has attracted tens of thousands of supporters to rallies around New York City while high-profile surrogates Spike Lee, Rosario Dawson and Harry Belafonte have been out in force on his behalf.

    A victory on Tuesday could upend the dynamic of the race. A close finish, within a few points of Clinton, would legitimize his insistence on seeing the race through to its conclusion at the Democratic National Convention in July.

    Still, Sanders’s reliance on young voters and independents could doom him.

    The New York primary is closed to independents, and the deadline to register as a Democrat was in October.
     

    Will Cruz’s microtargeting pay off?

    Cruz is on a mission to block Trump from reaching 1,237 delegates.

    That means contesting every single delegate, even if he has to venture into unfriendly territory, something he has done on multiple occasions while campaigning in New York.

    Earlier this month, Cruz campaigned in the liberal borough of the Bronx. The headlines he drew were largely negative. Hecklers greeted Cruz, who was put on the defensive for disparaging “New York values.”

    And a speech Cruz gave at the New York City Republican gala last week drew an icy response from attendees there, further evidence that Northeast Republicans seem to have little interest in Cruz’s brand of conservatism.

    But Cruz is playing a long game, hoping that his efforts in liberal precincts where Republicans rarely tread will help him cut into Trump’s delegates haul at the congressional district level.

    Even a few delegates could mean the difference between Trump winning on the first ballot at the convention and Cruz winning on the second or third.

    Cruz identified pockets within the state where he believes his message could resonate. Cruz notably rolled matzo dough at a bakery in Brooklyn, reaching out to the city’s Orthodox Jewish community.

    He will find out on Tuesday whether those efforts pay off.
     

    Time for Kasich to prove his worth

    Kasich has justified his presence in the race by saying he’ll do better than Cruz with moderate voters in Northeastern states where the electorate is more liberal.

    New York will test that logic.

    Most polls show Kasich running slightly ahead of Cruz in the state.

    He has been campaigning in the state for a full two weeks and has picked up endorsements from The New York Times and the New York Daily News.

    Picking off a substantial number of delegates at the congressional district level would will go a long way to convincing skeptical Republicans that he’s not just sucking support from Cruz and that he’s able to contribute to the anti-Trump efforts.

    ***

    One important thing to note, as we pointed out earlier, is that New York has one of the most archaic primaries in the nation. New York is a closed primary, meaning that you have to be registered as a member of one of the two parties in order to participate.

    As a reminder, 27% of New York State's active voters were not registered in either party as of April 2016, and have missed the March 25th deadline to register. This means they will have no say in the primary.

    From the article

    Unless you’ve been living in a cave, you’ll know that New Yorkers go to the primary voting booths on April 19th. Unfortunately, only a small sliver of the population will actually be able to vote. First, it’s a closed primary, so you have to be registered as a member of one of the two corrupt political parties in order to participate. As the Guardian recently reported, 27% of New York state’s active voters were not registered in either party as of April 2016, meaning these people will have no say in the primary. Even worse, what about all those residents who aren’t active voters, but would very likely vote in this particular election given the increased turnout seen in other states? They’re iced out as well.

    New York has one of the most archaic primaries in the nation. Not only is it one of only 11 states with closed primaries, but if you are a registered voter who wanted to change your party affiliation in order to vote in next week’s primary, you would’ve had to do it by last October. In contrast, if you weren’t yet a registered voter you had until March 25th to register under one of the two parties in order to vote in the primary. So if you live in New York and haven’t registered by now, you can’t vote.

    The polls close at 9pm Eastern, and we will provide updates as they become available.

  • Paul Craig Roberts: How The American Neocons Destroyed Mankind's Hopes For Peace

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    When Ronald Reagan turned his back on the neoconservatives, fired them, and had some of them prosecuted, his administration was free of their evil influence, and President Reagan negotiated the end of the Cold War with Soviet President Gorbachev. The military/security complex, the CIA, and the neocons were very much against ending the Cold War as their budgets, power, and ideology were threatened by the prospect of peace between the two nuclear superpowers.

    I know about this, because I was part of it. I helped Reagan create the economic base for bringing the threat of a new arms race to a failing Soviet economy in order to pressure the Soviets into agreement to end the Cold War, and I was appointed to a secret presidential committee with subpeona power over the CIA. The secret committee was authorized by President Reagan to evaluate the CIA’s claim that the Soviets would prevail in an arms race. The secret committee concluded that this was the CIA’s way of perpetuting the Cold War and the CIA’s importance.

    The George H. W. Bush administration and its Secretary of State James Baker kept Reagan’s promises to Gorbachev and achieved the reunification of Germany with promises that NATO would not move one inch to the East.

    The corrupt Clintons, for whom the accumulation of riches seems to be their main purpose in life, violated the assurances given by the United States that had ended the Cold War. The two puppet presidents – George W. Bush and Obama – who followed the Clintons lost control of the US government to the neocons, who promptly restarted the Cold War, believing in their hubris and arrogance that History has chosen the US to exercise hegemony over the world.

    Thus was mankind’s chance for peace lost along with America’s leadership of the world. Under neocon influence, the United States government threw away its soft power and its ability to lead the world into a harmonious existance over which American influence would have prevailed.

    Instead the neocons threatened the world with coercion and violence, attacking eight countries and fomenting “color revolutions” in former Soviet republics.

    The consequence of this crazed insanity was to create an economic and military strategic alliance between Russia and China. Without the neocons’ arrogant policy, this alliance would not exist. It was a decade ago that I began writing about the strategic alliance between Russia and China that is a response to the neocon claim of US world hegemony

    The strategic alliance between Russia and China is militarily and economically too strong for Washington. China controls the production of the products of many of America’s leading corporations, such as Apple. China has the largest foreign exchange reserves in the world. China can, if the government wishes, cause a massive increase in the American money supply by dumping its trillions of dollars of US financial assets.

    To prevent a collapse of US Treasury prices, the Federal Reserve would have to create trillions of new dollars in order to purchase the dumped financial instruments. The rest of the world would see another expansion of dollars without an expansion of real US output and become skeptical of the US dollar. If the world abandoned the US dollar, the US government could no longer pay its bills.

    Europe is dependent on Russian energy. Russia can cut off this energy. There are no alternatives in the short-run, and perhaps not in the long run. If Russia shuts off the energy, Germany industry shuts down. Europeans freeze to death in the winter. Despite these facts, the neocons have forced Europe to impose economic sanctions on Russia. What if Russia responded in kind?

    NATO, as US military authorities admit, has no chance of invading Russia or withstanding a Russian attack on NATO. NATO is a cover for Washington’s war crimes. It can provide no other service.

    Thanks to the greed of US corporations that boosted their profits by offshoring their production to China, China is modernized many decades before the neocons thought possible. China’s military forces are modernized with Russian weapons technology. New Chinese missiles make the vaunted US Navy and its aircraft carriers obsolete.

    The neocons boast how they have surrounded Russia, but it is America that is surrounded by Russia and China, thanks to the incompetent leadership that the US has had beginning with the Clintons. Judging from Killary’s support in the current presidential primaries, many voters seem determined to perpetuate incompetent leadership.

    Despite being surrounded, the neocons are pressing for war with Russia which means also with China. If Killary Clinton makes it to the White House, we could get the neocon’s war.

    The neocons have flocked to the support of Killary. She is their person. Watch the feminized women of America put Killary in office. Keep in mind that Congress gave its power to start wars to the president.

    The United States does not have a highly intelligent or well informed population. The US owes its 20th century dominance to World War I and World War II which destroyed more capable countries and peoples. America became a superpower because of the self-destruction of other countries.

    Despite neocon denials that their hubris has created a powerful alliance against the US, a professor at the US Navy War College stresses the reality of the Russian-Chinese strategic alliance.

    Last August a joint Russian-Chinese sea and air exercise took place in the Sea of Japan, making it clear to America’s Japanese vassal that it was defenceless if Russia and China so decided.

    The Russian defense minister Sergey Shoigu said that the joint exercise illustrates the partnership between the two powers and its stabilizing effect on that part of the world.

    Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that Russian-Chinese relations are able to resist any international crises.

    The only achievements of the American neoconservatives are to destroy in war crimes millions of peoples in eight countries and to send the remnant populations fleeing into Europe as refugees, thus undermining the American puppet governments there, and to set back the chances of world peace and American leadership by creating a powerful strategic alliance between Russia and China.

    This boils down to extraordinary failure. It is time to hold the neoconservatives accountable, not elect another puppet for them to manipulate.

  • London's Rich See The Writing On The Wall: Stop Buying, Start Renting

    When the going gets tough, the rich get going first… and the rest should pay attention. While the smorgasbord of well-heeled wealthy elites will continue to proclaim that all is well in the world at any and every opportunity – for fear of the revolt of the masses – two disturbing headlines from one of the world's centers of money should have the 99% nervous.

    Demand for London homes under construction slumped by 33%, according to Bloomberg, with "very few higher-end expensive sold in the central areas this year."

    The number of homes sold prior to completion in the U.K. capital fell to 5,947 from a record high of 8,927 a year earlier, according to data compiled by Molior London that was seen by Bloomberg News. Molior declined to comment.

     

    “Affordability is still a huge issue for domestic buyers,” said Faisal Durrani, head of research at broker Cluttons LLP. “New builds in the higher price echelons normally appeal to international investors, but lots of uncertainties in their own economies — such as currency issues and the drop in oil prices — have led to a slowdown in purchases from a year ago.

     

    Demand has fallen for new homes in London after the government raised sales taxes, introduced a capital-gains levy for overseas buyers and said it plans to cut tax breaks for the wealthiest landlords. Developers in central London are offering institutional investors discounts of as much as 20 percent on bulk purchases as the tax changes limit demand from private individuals.

     

    “There have been very few higher-end expensive sold in the central areas this year,” said Matthew Jackson, an associate director at real estate broker Chestertons. “Some of the volume has been taken up in the lower price ranges, where we have got investors who are looking well beyond the center.”

     

    Investors who acquired apartments before construction commenced, betting they would rise in value, are seeking to sell the properties before they’re completed and stamp duty has to be paid.

     

    “Developers are competing against their own customers in the presale market, so someone has to either pull back or discount,” Colin Sheridan, an analyst at J&E Davy Holdings Ltd., said by e-mail.

     

    About 6,379 new homes were started in the first three months of the year, 39 percent less than a year earlier and the lowest number for seven quarters, the Molior data shows.

    And then there is this…

    At the same time The FT reports, the number of rental deals on homes worth more than $15m rose almost a third in the year to March 2016 from the previous year.

    After stamp duty increased on expensive homes and prices began falling in the capital’s wealthiest areas, potential buyers of homes worth more than £10m are increasingly opting to become tenants instead.

     

    Agents said uncertainty over the UK’s referendum on EU membership and concerns about the use of offshore companies for property purchases following the Panama Papers leak may add to the shift.

     

    The number of lettings deals on homes worth more than £10m each year has more than doubled since 2011, and rose almost a third in the year to March 2016 from the previous year, according to figures from Knight Frank, an estate agency.

     

    “No one is predicting that homes at the top end will be worth 10 per cent more in the near future and most people think they will be worth less,” said Henry Pryor, a buying agent. “It is much easier to make a decision to rent and make sure that if you do buy it’s something you really want.”

    Translation: Rent, Don't Buy, something is coming… and the elites know it.

  • People As Poultry

    Via EricPetersAutos.com,

    We live in a lunatic asylum .. the lunatics being us.

    For believing we ever lived in a “free” country. As long ago as the reign of His Rotundity – the second president of the United (at bayonet-point) States – people were being dragooned off the street and roughly thrown into cages for having annoyed the powers-that-be. Or who were deemed “dangerous” by the powers-that-be. This was more than 200 years before The Chimp came along with his squinty-eyed pronouncements about “the enemies of freedom” and being either “with us” or “against us.”

     

    Not much is taught in government schools (for the obvious reason) about the Alien and Sedition Acts – or other such clear evidence of a disconnect between what we are told and what actually is.

    For example, why should a free man have to worry about prosecution for “possessing” anything? In what way does the mere fact of “possession” entail a harm caused to some other person?

    How is it that a free man can be told – at gunpoint – what he may not put into his body?

    I refer, of course, to the lunacy that is the “war” on some (arbitrarily decided upon) “drugs.”

    hero

    Of all the many things wrong with America, this is perhaps the most obvious – and yet, the one most people seem to have trouble appreciating. A cop who drinks alcohol – who possesses and consumes this drug – is legally empowered to throw people in a cage for possessing or consuming that drug.

    Or even if not.

    In the video above, a salesman from California traveling through Wichita County, TX is followed by police for nearly half an hour before he is pulled over for a minor traffic violation. One so minor, in fact, the cop who pulls him over initially states that he will only be issuing a warning. But then things escalate – and the driver is advised that a drug-sniffing dog will be brought out and that if this dog “alerts” to the supposed presence of arbitrarily illegal “drugs,” the driver’s vehicle will be searched.

    No surprise, the dog “alerted” – and that was sufficient probable cause for a pair of Drug Warriors to rummage through the man’s vehicle and his personal property in the hopes of finding some arbitrarily illegal “drugs.” Which would have not only resulted in the arrest of the driver but also the likely forfeiture (read, the stealing) of his vehicle, a common practice employed by Drug Warriors and a financial incentive for them to be particularly aggressive in their truffle pig-like sussing out of these arbitrarily illegal “drugs.”

    hero 3

    None were discovered – fortunately for the victim. That is to say, the driver, whose only crime appears to have been that he was an out-of-state driver. This, by itself, is enough to draw the attention of the Drug Warriors. They will ride your ass for as long as it takes for you to let your tire touch the yellow line – or perhaps signal a left turn not quite 100 feet from the road you’re turning onto. Maybe your windows are “tinted.”

    They will find a reason – and then it’s open season.

    The next step is to bring out a dog and let him leap up on your doors and scratch your vehicle’s paint with his claws. Then, like Dr. Doolittle – his handler will converse with the canine and he (the canine) will, through some inscrutable doggy pantomime of yelps and body gyrations, convey to his handler that he smells arbitrarily illegal drugs.

    That’s all it takes. The “word” of… a dog.

    This is considered adequate probable cause to remove you from your vehicle and to then root around through your vehicle and its contents in search of … well… whatever they find.

    hero 4

    Or, plant.

    You not only have no right to confront/cross-examine this “witness” against you… it is an inter-species impossibility. Except for the handler, naturlich – who tells us (and we must believe him) what the dog is thinking (and saying) and whose “testimony” is accepted at face value… both by the side of the road and later on, when you are before a judge.

    You – the defendant – might try yelping and rolling on your back to “question” the “witness.” But the answers are inadmissible.

    All of this over the possession of a substance decreed – arbitrarily – to be verboten to possess. Not even the pretext is offered that some actual harm has been caused to anyone. Or even might be. The government – that is, the people who have somehow assumed ownership over us – simply tell us what we may and may not posses, what we may and may not put into “our” bodies.

    poultry

    Few people stop to think about it. Ponder the nature of this business.

    Grown men – who themselves possess and consume various “drugs” decreed (arbitrarily) to be legal – think nothing of siccing dogs on people, taking their property, throwing them in cages… because they possess or consume some other “drug” just as arbitrarily decreed to be illegal. And are not ashamed or even slightly embarrassed.

    It is husbandry.

    I restrict what my animals may consume – and control what they do – because I own them. They are my property, to do with as I see fit.

    We stand in the same relation to the state as my chickens.

  • China Launches Yuan Gold Fix To "Exert More Control Over Price Of Gold"

    Overnight a historic event took place when China, the world’s top gold consumer, launched a yuan-denominated gold benchmark as had been previewed here previously, in what Reuters dubbed “an ambitious step to exert more control over the pricing of the metal and boost its influence in the global bullion market.” Considering the now officially-confirmed rigging of the gold and silver fix courtesy of last week’s Deutsche Bank settlement, this is hardly bad news and may finally lead to some rigging cartel and central bank-free price discovery. Or it may not, because China would enjoy nothing more than continuing to accumulate gold at lower prices.

    The first Chinese benchmark price, derived from a 1 kg-contract traded by 18 participants on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), was set at 256.92 yuan ($39.69) per gram on Tuesday, equivalent to $1,234.50/ounce.

    China’s gold benchmark is the culmination of efforts by China over the last few years to reform its domestic gold market in a bid to have a bigger say in the bullion industry, long dominated by London where the global spot benchmark price is currently set. As is well known, as the world’s top producer, importer and consumer of gold, China has balked at having to depend on a dollar price in international transactions, and believes its market weight should entitle it to set the price of gold.

    The new benchmark may not be an immediate threat to London, but industry players say over time China could set the price of the metal, especially if the yuan become fully convertible.

    Cited by Reuters, Pan Gongsheng, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China which has been disclosing gold purchases every month since last summer, said that “the Shanghai gold benchmark will provide a fair and tradable yuan-denominated gold fix price … will help improve yuan pricing mechanism and promote internationalization of the Chinese gold market.”

    The mechanics of the Shanghai fix are comparable to those of London: the benchmark price will be set twice a day based on a few minutes of trading in each session. The London benchmark, quoted in dollars per ounce, is set via a twice-daily auction on an electronic platform with 12 participants.

    The 18 trading members in the yuan price-setting process includes China’s big four state-owned banks, foreign banks Standard Chartered and ANZ, the world’s top jewelry retailer Chow Tai Fook and two of China’s top gold miners.

    When discussing the Chinese gold fix previously, World Gold Council CEO Aram Shishmanian said that “it is a stepping stone to a new multi-axis trading market consisting of London, New York and Shanghai and signals the continuing shift in demand from West to East.”

    “As the market expands to reflect the growing interest in gold by Chinese consumers, so too will China’s influence increase on the global gold market.”

    It may already be working: according to Reuters, one reason for today’s spike in silver is due to “heavy buying of silver in Shanghai, and that has triggered buying in gold as well,” said Ronald Leung, chief dealer at Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong.

    Finally, when Chinese capital capital flight into Canadian real estate and offshore tax havens is curbed, we expected that gold could well follow the path of bitcoin, which has doubled since our article presenting it as an attractive alternative to avoiding Chinese capital controls.

  • "Swimming Naked" – Chinese Corporate Bond Market Worst Since 2003

    A week ago we highlight the "last bubble standing" was finally bursting, and as China's corporate bond bubble deflates rapidly, it appears investors are catching on to the contagion possibilities this may involve as one analyst warns "the cost has built up in the form of corporate credit risks and bank risks for the whole economy." As Bloomberg reports, local issuers have canceled 61.9 billion yuan ($9.6 billion) of bond sales in April alone, and Standard & Poor’s is cutting its assessment of Chinese firms at a pace unseen since 2003. Simply put, the unprecedented boom in China’s $3 trillion corporate bond market is starting to unravel.

    As Bloomberg notes, China’s leaders face a difficult balancing act.

    On one hand, allowing troubled companies to default forces money managers to pay more attention to credit risk and accelerates government efforts to curb overcapacity.

     

    The danger, though, is that investor panic leads to tighter credit conditions, dealing a blow to President Xi Jinping’s plan to keep the economy growing by at least 6.5 percent over the next five years.

    However, as we pointed out previously, economic figures for March reveal a growing dependence on debt. China’s aggregate financing — a broad measure of credit that includes corporate bonds – grew by over $1 trillion in Q1…

     

    And yet even that wasn’t enough to save the seven Chinese companies that reneged on bond obligations this year. Three of those were part-owned by China’s government, seen not long ago as a provider of implicit guarantees for bondholders.

    The reaction has been swift in China’s 18.8 trillion yuan corporate bond market (a figure that excludes certificates of deposit). The extra yield investors demand to hold seven-year onshore corporate bonds with top ratings over similar-maturity government notes has jumped by 28 basis points from an almost nine-year low in January, to 91 basis points as of Monday.
     

     

    At least 64 Chinese firms have postponed or scrapped planned note sales this month, six times more than the same period a year earlier.

     “As more and more issuers default, lenders and investors will reassess their portfolio and lending, and that will cause yields to rise,” said Christopher Lee, chief ratings officer for Greater China at Standard & Poor’s in Hong Kong. “If the onshore market has any dislocation, that will have a spillover effect in the offshore market.”

     

    Rising defaults are actually healthy for China’s bond market, said Xia Le, the chief economist for Asia at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA in Hong Kong.

     

    “It shows the government is taking away the implicit guarantee,” Xia said. “Now risk awareness is rising, so we will see which issuers are swimming naked.”

    While bond yields in China are still well below historical averages, a sustained increase in borrowing costs could threaten an economy that’s more reliant on cheap credit than ever before. The numbers suggest more pain ahead:

    Listed firms’ ability to service their debt has dropped to the lowest since at least 1992, while analysts are cutting profit forecasts for Shanghai Composite Index companies by the most since the global financial crisis.

    As Qiu Xinhong, a Shenzhen-based money manager at First State Cinda Fund Management Co. said…

    “The spreading of credit risks is only at its early stage in China."

    We leave it to Xia Le to conclude,

    "The equity rout merely reflects worries about China’s economy, while a bond market crash would mean the worries have become a reality as corporate debts go unpaid," said Xia Le, the chief economist for Asia at Banco Bilbao. "A Chinese credit collapse would also likely spark a more significant selloff in emerging-market assets."

     

    "Global investors are looking for signs of a collapse in China, which itself could increase the chances of a crash… This game can’t go on forever."

  • Stocks Are In "A Far More Precarious State Than Was Ever Truly Believed Possible"

    Submitted by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

    As the major stock indices overtake or threaten psychological round numbers again (S&P 500 2,100; DJIA 18,000), they have done so with the same problem as occurred in 2015. Stocks have been overvalued for some time in historical comparison especially after QE3 and QE4, but it was supposed to be in anticipation of the full recovery that QE would make. For the longest time, that narrative actually seemed plausible at least in earnings. In June 2014, analysts estimated that total as-reported earnings for the calendar year of 2015 would close out around $144 per share. At an index level of 2,100, it would represent a seemingly low valuation multiple of 14.5 (low because, we were told, low discounting from historically low interest rates, favorable fixed income comparisons, and then high expected growth especially in areas like tech and consumer-related industries).

    Analysts’ estimates are always overly optimistic and have the hardened habit of being lowered as each particular quarter draws closer, but what happened with 2015 was something else entirely. Instead of $144 per share, 2015 ttm EPS for the index is going to be about $86.50. Rather than leave stock investors assured in their valuations, it meant the S&P 500 was trading around 24 times actual EPS. Worse, than that, the downdraft in earnings wasn’t apparent to analysts until it actually happened (believing in “transitory” as they did) and companies reported.

    ABOOK Apr 2016 EPS 2015 PE

    ABOOK Apr 2016 EPS Actual 2015 ttm

    As late as March 2015, analysts had been mugged by the events of late 2014 and the first parts of last year but were still predicting that earnings would grow by about 9% for the full year, including a return to “normal” growth by Q4. Even in November 2015, though the downtrend had been established in almost perfect uniformity, analysts were still expecting Q4 and then Q1 2016 to start a very strong turnaround.

    From that perspective you can understand why stock investors suddenly became more than a little nervous where only certainty and confidence had existed. On the whole, it was figured that the economy would provide a solid if not historically so valuation floor for stocks that would be pushed up relentlessly by the recovery that economists and the FOMC were describing all the way into the middle of 2015 – only to find by the end of the year that the stock market may have been overvalued by as much as 40% to actual earnings (assuming a multiple of 15 represents “fair value”).

    As optimism returns again, all that nasty business and “unexpected” uncertainty is being left behind as nothing more than scholarly conjecture suitable only for historians; 2016 is again on the march, or so it might seem. The surge in stocks during this “dollar” interregnum seems to be (outside of raw momentum and risk chasing) resurrecting the same assumptions as early 2015. “Transitory” has regained form only refashioned from a few months deviation to more than a year – but still to the same effect with only a delay in reaching the long-promised recovery.

    ABOOK Apr 2016 EPS Projections

    Reality still intrudes, however, on two fronts.

    Despite analysts’ renewed faith (which sets aside all doubts that should have been their working guesses this whole time) in where earnings will fly in 2016 that still doesn’t recreate the recovery that was once the hardened baseline for projections. The current ttm EPS for 2016 is not even $110 whereas last year was supposed to be $144. It is a huge disappointment even though in relative circumstances $110 is better than $86 – and that is where the focus has returned though it should remain on the recovery’s now nearing permanent disappointment (and thus overvaluation).

    The second problem is the familiar downgrade which is already severe, more so than “usual” (though less, so far, than 2015). In other words, $110 may be better than $86 but a year ago it was thought to be $124. The difference in valuation is again quite striking.

    ABOOK Apr 2016 EPS 2016 PE

    A forward PE using March 2015 estimates would have been somewhat expensive at about 17 times earnings but is already now more than 19 even as EPS continues to fall. Over just the last month (March to April), 2016 ttm EPS has dropped by almost $3 which again suggests that when all is completed this year a multiple of 19 will be almost certainly the best and least likely case. That would mean the assumed valuation floor is far lower for a second consecutive year, and we still have no idea just how low it may yet reach.

    ABOOK Apr 2016 EPS Multiples

    Where the S&P 500 may have been overvalued by perhaps 40% or more based on actual, as-reported 2015 EPS, the current annual EPS estimates suggest only a return to the 1,600 range not 2,100 or better (for the full year 2016 EPS; current estimates still plug “fair value” as something like 1,330 on the index meaning it will take a surge in earnings growth later this year just to get “fair value” back to 1,600!). As you can plainly observe above, had the 2014 version of recovery worked out the actual trajectory of the index would have been at “fair value” (though in this counterfactual it is very likely that the index and all stocks would have kept going up and up rather than sideways to lower these past nearly two years now) or close to it. Instead, the “transitory” weakness in 2015 has opened a gulf that only entrenches the high degree of overvaluation even under scenarios where 2016 isn’t so bad. That would leave stocks especially vulnerable to any further swings in sentiment as the assumed valuation “floor” quite “unexpectedly” remains quite distant.

    While momentum and risk chasing take about pushing the various indices in the near term, longer term (actual) investors will be forced to reckon with this huge disparity – that prices surged after QE4 in anticipation of the recovery happening and justifying what would have been only temporary overvaluation due to the giddiness of actual discounting. The fact that earnings are now nowhere near vindicating those expectations is a fundamentally different proposition altogether, including that QE was itself a lie. I believe it is this incongruence that explains the very curious and conspicuous sideways behavior in stocks as remnants of the old QE-driven hopes remain but are no longer in such unison or enjoy such widespread support.

    Doubt is the operative condition now, though especially variable in its short run expressions. It is in shorter supply today but that is no more the case than November 3 when the S&P last closed above 2,100 (just days before more “unexpected” hit) or even August 17 with the S&P 500 at 2,102 and already a week past the great Chinese warning of the intensified “dollar” run and only a week before the mini-crash of August 24 that run fulfilled.

    ABOOK Apr 2016 EPS Historyb

    Even if the events of 2015 and early 2016 turn out to be the end of it, it still means that full recovery in earnings and the real economy has been pushed several years farther into the future – a far more precarious state than was believed to ever be truly possible. To figure, then, that there is now much, much more than a trivial chance of still more disruption and contraction does not mix well with such durable overvaluation.

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Today’s News 19th April 2016

  • Obama: We Can't Let Truth Come Out About Saudi Involvement In 9/11, Or Else America's Terrorism Will Be Revealed

    Obama told CBS News today that we can’t allow bipartisan legislation subjecting the Saudis to potential liability for terrorism … or else other countries could retaliate against the US (starting at 0:40):

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    Similarly, White House spokesman Josh Earnest said today:

    “The whole notion of sovereign immunity is at stake,” Earnest told reporters Monday. “It could put the United States, and our taxpayers, and our service members and our diplomats at significant risk, if other countries were to adopt a similar law."

    As Cal Thomas points out at the Washington Times:

    The intent of the Senate bill is to clarify the immunity normally given to foreign governments. It says such immunity should not apply when nations are found culpable of committing terrorist attacks that kill Americans on U.S. soil.

    Why would the U.S. be worried about retaliation by other countries … being held accountable for terrorism?

    Well, the director of the National Security Agency under Ronald Reagan – Lt. General William Odom – noted:

    By any measure the US has long used terrorism. In ‘78-79 the Senate was trying to pass a law against international terrorism – in every version they produced, the lawyers said the US would be in violation.

    And – while Saudi Arabia is certainly a huge sponsor of terrorism worldwide – experts from the right and the left agree that the U.S. is actually the world's largest sponsor of terrorism. And see this.

     

    Postscript:  Of course, it would be nice if everyone – including both the Saudis and Americans – moved past this and stopped committing terror.

    But it doesn't seem like either country is willing to commit to that …

  • Saint Or Sinner – Government Eyes Are Watching Every Move You Make

    Submitted by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    The way things are supposed to work is that we’re supposed to know virtually everything about what [government officials] do: that’s why they’re called public servants.

     

    They’re supposed to know virtually nothing about what we do: that’s why we’re called private individuals. This dynamic – the hallmark of a healthy and free society – has been radically reversed. Now, they know everything about what we do, and are constantly building systems to know more. Meanwhile, we know less and less about what they do, as they build walls of secrecy behind which they function. That’s the imbalance that needs to come to an end. No democracy can be healthy and functional if the most consequential acts of those who wield political power are completely unknown to those to whom they are supposed to be accountable.” ? Glenn Greenwald

    Government eyes are watching you.

    They see your every move: what you read, how much you spend, where you go, with whom you interact, when you wake up in the morning, what you’re watching on television and reading on the internet.

    Every move you make is being monitored, mined for data, crunched, and tabulated in order to form a picture of who you are, what makes you tick, and how best to control you when and if it becomes necessary to bring you in line.

    Simply by liking or sharing this article on Facebook or retweeting it on Twitter, you’re most likely flagging yourself as a potential renegade, revolutionary or anti-government extremist—a.k.a. terrorist.

    Yet whether or not you like or share this particular article, simply by reading it or any other articles related to government wrongdoing, surveillance, police misconduct or civil liberties is enough to get you categorized as a particular kind of person with particular kinds of interests that reflect a particular kind of mindset that might just lead you to engage in a particular kinds of activities.

    Chances are, as the Washington Post reports, you have already been assigned a color-coded threat score—green, yellow or red—so police are forewarned about your potential inclination to be a troublemaker depending on whether you’ve had a career in the military, posted a comment perceived as threatening on Facebook, suffer from a particular medical condition, or know someone who knows someone who might have committed a crime.

    In other words, you might already be flagged as potentially anti-government in a government database somewhere—Main Core, for example—that identifies and tracks individuals who aren’t inclined to march in lockstep to the police state’s dictates.

    The government has the know-how.

    As The Intercept recently reported, the FBI, CIA, NSA and other government agencies are increasingly investing in and relying on corporate surveillance technologies that can mine constitutionally protected speech on social media platforms such as Facebook, Twitter and Instagram in order to identify potential extremists and predict who might engage in future acts of anti-government behavior.

    Now all it needs is the data, which more than 90% of young adults and 65% of American adults are happy to provide.

    When the government sees all and knows all and has an abundance of laws to render even the most seemingly upstanding citizen a criminal and lawbreaker, then the old adage that you’ve got nothing to worry about if you’ve got nothing to hide no longer applies.

    Apart from the obvious dangers posed by a government that feels justified and empowered to spy on its people and use its ever-expanding arsenal of weapons and technology to monitor and control them, we’re approaching a time in which we will be forced to choose between obeying the dictates of the government—i.e., the law, or whatever a government official deems the law to be—and maintaining our individuality, integrity and independence.

    When people talk about privacy, they mistakenly assume it protects only that which is hidden behind a wall or under one’s clothing. The courts have fostered this misunderstanding with their constantly shifting delineation of what constitutes an “expectation of privacy.” And technology has furthered muddied the waters. However, privacy is so much more than what you do or say behind locked doors. It is a way of living one’s life firm in the belief that you are the master of your life, and barring any immediate danger to another person (which is far different from the carefully crafted threats to national security the government uses to justify its actions), it’s no one’s business what you read, what you say, where you go, whom you spend your time with, and how you spend your money.

    Unfortunately, privacy as we once knew it is dead.

    George Orwell’s 1984—where “you had to live—did live, from habit that became instinct—in the assumption that every sound you made was overheard, and, except in darkness, every movement scrutinized”—has become our reality.

    We now find ourselves in the unenviable position of being monitored, managed and controlled by our technology, which answers not to us but to our government and corporate rulers.

    Consider that on any given day, the average American going about his daily business will be monitored, surveilled, spied on and tracked in more than 20 different ways, by both government and corporate eyes and ears. A byproduct of this new age in which we live, whether you’re walking through a store, driving your car, checking email, or talking to friends and family on the phone, you can be sure that some government agency, whether the NSA or some other entity, is listening in and tracking your behavior.

    As I point out in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, this doesn’t even begin to touch on the corporate trackers that monitor your purchases, web browsing, Facebook posts and other activities taking place in the cyber sphere.

    For example, police have been using Stingray devices mounted on their cruisers to intercept cell phone calls and text messages without court-issued search warrants.

    Doppler radar devices, which can detect human breathing and movement within in a home, are already being employed by the police to deliver arrest warrants and are being challenged in court.

    License plate readers, yet another law enforcement spying device made possible through funding by the Department of Homeland Security, can record up to 1800 license plates per minute. Moreover, these surveillance cameras can also photograph those inside a moving car. Reports indicate that the Drug Enforcement Administration has been using the cameras in conjunction with facial recognition software to build a “vehicle surveillance database” of the nation’s cars, drivers and passengers.

    Sidewalk and “public space” cameras, sold to gullible communities as a sure-fire means of fighting crime, is yet another DHS program that is blanketing small and large towns alike with government-funded and monitored surveillance cameras. It’s all part of a public-private partnership that gives government officials access to all manner of surveillance cameras, on sidewalks, on buildings, on buses, even those installed on private property.

    Couple these surveillance cameras with facial recognition and behavior-sensing technology and you have the makings of “pre-crime” cameras, which scan your mannerisms, compare you to pre-set parameters for “normal” behavior, and alert the police if you trigger any computerized alarms as being “suspicious.”

    State and federal law enforcement agencies are pushing to expand their biometric and DNA databases by requiring that anyone accused of a misdemeanor have their DNA collected and catalogued. However, technology is already available that allows the government to collect biometrics such as fingerprints from a distance, without a person’s cooperation or knowledge. One system can actually scan and identify a fingerprint from nearly 20 feet away.

    Developers are hard at work on a radar gun that can actually show if you or someone in your car is texting. Another technology being developed, dubbed a “textalyzer” device, would allow police to determine whether someone was driving while distracted. Refusing to submit one’s phone to testing could result in a suspended or revoked driver’s license.

    It’s a sure bet that anything the government welcomes (and funds) too enthusiastically is bound to be a Trojan horse full of nasty, invasive surprises. Case in point: police body cameras. Hailed as the easy fix solution to police abuses, these body cameras—made possible by funding from the Department of Justice—will turn police officers into roving surveillance cameras. Of course, if you try to request access to that footage, you’ll find yourself being led a merry and costly chase through miles of red tape, bureaucratic footmen and unhelpful courts.

    The “internet of things” refers to the growing number of “smart” appliances and electronic devices now connected to the internet and capable of interacting with each other and being controlled remotely. These range from thermostats and coffee makers to cars and TVs. Of course, there’s a price to pay for such easy control and access. That price amounts to relinquishing ultimate control of and access to your home to the government and its corporate partners. For example, while Samsung’s Smart TVs are capable of “listening” to what you say, thereby allowing users to control the TV using voice commands, it also records everything you say and relays it to a third party, e.g., the government.

    Then again, the government doesn’t really need to spy on you using your smart TV when the FBI can remotely activate the microphone on your cellphone and record your conversations. The FBI can also do the same thing to laptop computers without the owner knowing any better.

    Drones, which are taking to the skies en masse, are the converging point for all of the weapons and technology already available to law enforcement agencies. In fact, drones that can listen in on your phone calls, see through the walls of your home, scan your biometrics, photograph you and track your movements, and even corral you with sophisticated weaponry.

    Technology has upped the stakes dramatically.

    All of these technologies add up to a society in which there’s little room for indiscretions, imperfections, or acts of independence—especially not when the government can listen in on your phone calls, monitor your driving habits, track your movements, scrutinize your purchases and peer through the walls of your home.

    In such an environment, you’re either a paragon of virtue, or you’re a criminal.

    This is the creepy, calculating yet diabolical genius of the American police state: the very technology we hailed as revolutionary and liberating has become our prison, jailer, probation officer, Big Brother and Father Knows Best all rolled into one.

    Thus, to be an individual today, to not conform, to have even a shred of privacy, and to live beyond the reach of the government’s roaming eyes and technological spies, one must not only be a rebel but rebel.

    As Philip K. Dick, the visionary who gave us Minority Report and Blade Runner, advised:

    If, as it seems, we are in the process of becoming a totalitarian society in which the state apparatus is all-powerful, the ethics most important for the survival of the true, free, human individual would be: cheat, lie, evade, fake it, be elsewhere, forge documents, build improved electronic gadgets in your garage that’ll outwit the gadgets used by the authorities.

    There is no gray area any longer.

  • Boston Fed Says "Markets Are Wrong," Rates Are Going Higher, Sooner

    Gold and bond prices dropped and stocks popped as yet another open-mouth operation went underway this evening from none other than Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren. Ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, and just days after another Fed president said no April hike, Rosengren spewed firth that "I don't think financial markets have it right." Of course, what this preacher means is that while stock markets are perfectly efficient (and correct), bonds and rate futures areclearly inefficient and "investor outlooks for Fed rate hikes are too pessimistic," because "the US economy is fundamentally sound."

    • *ROSENGREN: GRADUAL FED RATE INCREASES `ABSOLUTELY APPROPRIATE'
    • *FED'S ROSENGREN SAYS U.S. ECONOMY `FUNDAMENTALLY SOUND'
    • *ROSENGREN: INVESTOR OUTLOOK FOR FED RATE HIKES TOO PESSIMISTIC

    Seriously!!

     

    Of course, after a day of oil/stock rebounds on dismal disappointment in Doha, this makes perfect sense…

    Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren issued a stark warning to markets Monday, telling traders and investors they are seriously underestimating how many rate rises the U.S. central bank is likely to deliver over the next few years.

     

    "I don't think the financial markets have it right," Mr. Rosengren said in a speech given in New Britain, Conn., at Central Connecticut State University.

     

    "While I believe that gradual federal-funds rate increases are absolutely appropriate, I do not see that the risks are so elevated, nor the outlook so pessimistic, as to justify the exceptionally shallow interest rate path currently reflected in financial futures markets," he said.

    yeah you are probably right – what is wrong with this US economy?

     

    Ignore this though he say – it's wrong too!!

    • *ROSENGREN: 1Q GROWTH DISAPPOINTING, JOBS DATA MORE OPTIMISTIC

    As WSJ notes, however, Rosengren, currently an FOMC voter, has long skewed toward the dovish end of the Fed scale.

    While he's been on board with the Fed raising rates he's definitely banged the drum for moving slowly. So his speech this evening is notable because he puts markets on warning for holding what he views as the wrong outlook on rates.

     

    He says nothing about the April FOMC, but that said, if Mr. Rosengren thinks markets are underestimating what the Fed will do, investors and traders might want to listen.

    There was some reaction in markets…

     

    So – interest-rate markets are wrong; macro data is mostly wrong (apart from the jobs data); and The Fed is right?

    As we showeed in our discussion of the Fed’s forecasts, these predictions have continued to fall short of reality.

    “Besides being absolutely the worst economic forecasters on the planet, the Fed’s real problem is contained within the table and chart below. Despite the rhetoric of stronger employment and economic growth – plunging imports and exports, falling corporate profits, collapsing manufacturing and falling wages all suggest the economy is in no shape to withstand tighter monetary policy at this juncture.”

    FOMC-Economic-Forecasts-031616

    “Of course, if the Fed openly suggested a ‘recession’ could well be in the cards, the markets would sell off sharply, consumer confidence would drop and a recession would be pulled forward to the present. This is why “what the Fed says” is much less important than what they do.”

    And here is Alan Greenspan meeting with Dixie Noonan et al on March 31, 2010:

    This is a reason why the Board is getting an unfair rap on this stuff. We didn’t forecast better than anyone else; we regulated banks that got in trouble like anyone else. Could we have done better? Yes, if we could forecast better. But we can’t. This is why I’m very uncomfortable with the idea of a systemic regulator, because they can’t forecast better.

    This comes from the person in charge of the most powerful central bank in the world; a world which now is reliant exclusively on central bankers for its day to day pretend existence.

  • Florida Airport Gives TSA The Boot, Will Outsource Screening To Private Company

    It goes without saying that if the people of any country want something done efficiently, and in the most cost-efficient manner, they do it themselves or outsource it to private third-party service providers, instead of entrusting it to a bunch of bureaucrats and unmotivated government workers.

    Finally, airports in the United States are starting to come to that realization as well. So far, private security agents monitor at least 22 airports in major cities like San Francisco and Kansas City. The latest airport to replace the TSA is the Punta Gorda Airport in Florida.

    As Sputnik reports, Florida’s Punta Gorda airport has begun to privatize security, taking the keys away from the what according to many is America’s most inept, inefficient and often, grotesquely demeaning governmental organization, the TSA, and handing them over to a firm called ISS Action, a security company out of Queens, New York.

    Sadly, ISS Action and similar private companies won’t take complete control of security operations at airports they operate in. Government oversight will still be in place to ensure proper safety checks are being made. 

    Nonetheless, the move to privatize airport screening will prove to be better for both travelers and taxpayers, as a private organization cannot afford to be inefficient and wasteful, or it will soon find itself out of business.

    Pam Seay of the Charlotte County Airport Authority said the move will save the airport money, while making security more efficient and perhaps friendlier. In other words, it will eliminate government workers.

    In a congressional report released in 2012, it was found that among other things, the TSA was wasting hundreds of millions in taxpayer money as it purchased expensive technologies and forgot to use them. And certainly ignore the countless accusations of groping and abuse of personal privacy by the same “entitled” members of this organization.

    Perhaps this money and all future cost savings can be redeployed to those who are getting social security taken away from them so the government can “save money.”

     

    We can only hope that just like UnitedHealth’s amicable departure from Obamacare exchanges (now out of five states and growing by the day), the example set by Punta Gorda will be followed by most other airports who

  • Malaysia CDS Spike After Abu Dhabi Puts Scandal-Ridden 1MDB In Default

    Over the better part of the past year, we’ve documented the curious case of 1MDB, Malaysia’s government investment fund founded in 2009.

    It’s a long and exceptionally convoluted story that doesn’t exactly lend itself to a concise summary but suffice to say that the development bank was something of a black box right from the beginning and in 2013, some $680 million allegedly tied to 1MDB ended up in Malaysian PM Najib Razak’s personal bank account just prior to an election.

    There are any number of twists and turns in the 1MDB story including two bond offerings facilitated by a Goldman banker with ties to Najib and his wife, some shenanigans with a subsidiary of an Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, a questionable Cayman Islands account or two, a dispute with KPMG, and an Australian firm that specialized in Malaysian penny stocks, but at the end of the day, Malaysians just want to know what exactly will come of an investigation into how Najib ended up with nearly three quarters of a billion dollars.

    A quick reminder on the Abu Dhabi connection. Back in September, as the WSJ reported, the corruption scandal around 1MDB spilled beyond the country’s borders, as officials at a United Arab Emirates state investment vehicle rose questions about more than a billion dollars in money that they said is missing.

    Abu Dhabi had long been a source of support for the fund, 1Malaysia Development Bhd., which was set up six years ago by Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak to develop new industries in the Southeast Asian country. Then, in September, as 1MDB tries to fend off a cash crunch, its backers in Abu Dhabi are asking what happened to a $1.4 billion payment the fund said it made but which they never received, two people familiar with the matter said.

    The disputed payments were related to the purchase of power plants around the world by the Malaysian fund in 2012. A state investment fund in Abu Dhabi, the International Petroleum Investment Co., or IPIC, guaranteed the $3.5 billion in bonds that 1MDB issued to finance the purchase, according to the bond offering documents. In return, IPIC was to receive options to buy a 49% stake in the power plants as well as collateral for the bond.

    According to 1MDB’s financial statements, the Malaysian fund made a collateral payment of $1.4 billion. A draft report into 1MDB’s activities by Malaysia’s auditor general said the payment went to a subsidiary of IPIC called Aabar Investments PJS.

    The problem is that IPIC’s consolidated financial statements contain no reference to the receipt of the payment. Two people familiar with the matter said IPIC and Aabar never received the money. It isn’t clear what happened to the funds. 1MDB didn’t respond to requests for comment.

    Since then, even as more news revealed just how extensive the embezzlement and corruption surrounding 1MDB truly were with the explicit involvement of Malaysian PM Najib Razak, the Abu Dhabi money was never found.

    * * *

    Fast forward to today, when 6 months later, the question of Abu Dhabi’s missing money has resurfaced with a bang, and suddenly threatens to drag down not only 1MDB but the entire Malaysian state.

    As the FT reports, the dispute between an Abu Dhabi sovereign fund and Malaysia’s troubled state fund 1MDB over more than $1bn in missing payments hit a crescendo on Monday when the Emirates investment vehicle said its Malaysian counterpart was “in default” on an agreement between the two and terminated the deal.

    The catalyst was a filing on the LSE made on Monday according to which the Gulf emirate’s abovementioned International Petroleum Investment Company (IPIC) ended its relationship with its Southeast Asian counterpart. 

    The Abu Dhabi fund said 1MDB and Malaysia’s ministry of finance were in default on the deal, including an obligation to pay $1.1bn plus interest, and that 1MDB continued to be bound by its commitments under the agreement.

    In short, Abu Dhabi wants its money and is willing to push 1MDB in default to get it.

    Ipic was now considering options to remedy the alleged default, including referring the matter to the appropriate dispute resolution forum, it added in its regulatory filing. 

    Furthermore, Ipic and its Aabar subsidiary issued a London Stock Exchange statement last week in which they denied ownership of Aabar Investments PJS Ltd, a company that received billions of dollars in payments from 1MDB.  Ipic and Aabar said in the filing that they were aware of reports that “substantial payments” were made to that company, which is incorporated in the British Virgin Islands, another offshore tax haven. They also said they had received no payments from the company and received no liabilities on its behalf.

    * * *

    The move is the latest twist in an affair that has buffeted Malaysia’s government and prompted investigations in at least five countries including the US and Switzerland.

    To be sure, the case shouldn’t be very difficult to prosecute since Malaysia appears to have run out of goodwill with another critical counterparty, Switzerland after Swiss authorities said they have found “serious indications” that about $4bn has been misappropriated from Malaysian state companies. They widened their investigation last week to look at the roles of two former officials with responsibility for Abu Dhabi sovereign funds.

    For its part, the FT adds, 1MDB said in a that interest was payable on Monday on its $1.75bn 2022 bonds. The Malaysian fund said that a “dispute has recently arisen” between the two funds and that Ipic had not paid the interest.

    The 1MDB statement went on: “1MDB wishes to make clear that it and its group entities will meet all of their other obligations under any other financing arrangements and have ample liquidity to do so.”

     

    Malaysia’s finance ministry said in a statement on Monday that it would “continue to honour all of its outstanding commitments in the financial markets”.

    In short, nobody really knows what is going on as Christian de Guzman, a credit analyst at Moody’s in Singapore, confirmed. “There’s a lot of uncertainty about what’s going on, but one thing is clear — progress on 1MDB’s debt rationalisation has been cast into doubt.”

    Alas, the situation will only deteriorate from here.

    As a reminder, it is none other than Najib Razak, Malaysia’s prime minister, who heads 1MDB’s advisory board. The PM has battled allegations centred on $681m transferred to his personal bank account, which critics claim is linked to 1MDB. Both Mr Najib and 1MDB deny wrongdoing and the prime minister has been cleared by Malaysia’s attorney-general. Which means that for any resolution to be reached on the missing funds it would involve the implication of the prime minister, which would therefore mean that creditors of 1MDB have an awkward choice: write off their exposure, or pursue the funds with the risk of unleashing another political crisis.

    To get a sense of just how deep the Malaysian corruption rabit hole goes, consider that Nazir Razak, Najib’s brother, announced on Monday that he was taking a voluntary leave of absence from his role as chairman of CIMB, Malaysia’s second-biggest bank by assets, while a review took place into transfers into his own personal account. The move follows reports that he received $7m ahead of the 2013 elections in Malaysia.

    In other words, everyone was stealing, the only question is how much, and whether those who actually owe the money will come looking for it.

    And while bankers in Kuala Lumpur say that while the alleged default is unlikely to threaten Malaysia’s sovereign rating, as the risk from 1MDB is already factored in, it will hamper efforts to contain the political scandal around the affair.

    Markets, however, beg to differ and following the news of 1MDB’s alleged default, Malaysia 5 year CDS spiked by 11 bps, the most since March 21, to 163 bps as the market starts to quietly ask whether this ongoing scandal may just drag down the entire Malaysian state.

  • One Trader Finally Loses It

    Over the weekend, Bloomberg View’s quasi-economist wrote his latest laughable article, one which supposedly “explained” how “Everyone Worries Too Much About ‘Black Swans‘”, which in addition to being a rambling, meandering stream of consciousness that as is regularly the case with this particular author, made little sense, sparked a Twitter feud with the Nassim Taleb, the person who made the concept of a Black Swan into a household name.

    We were therefore very amused to note that none other than former FX trader and fund manager, Richard Breslow who also writes for Bloomberg, seemingly had an epileptic fit upon reading the abovementioned drivel and wrote his own scathing reaction from the perspective of an actual trader, a rection which not only threw up on every argument of the so-called economist’s logic, but on everything else that now is passed off simply as, well, “the new normal.”

    Here is Richard Breslow:

    No One Worries Enough About Black Swans

     

    Trading is a hard business. The world is becoming a more complicated place: a number out of China may do more to the price of your U.S. shares in a retailer than, well, U.S. retail sales. Yet creeping, dangerously, into the investment advice dialog is the argument that buying and holding no matter what the event is the winning strategy. 

     

    If you ever needed a “past results don’t guarantee…” disclaimer it’s especially true now.

     

    It’s not surprising that such shallow reasoning is becoming commonplace. Sure beats staying late at the office doing cash-flow analysis. Bad things happen and the Fed will cut rates. Worked time and again. Presto chango, that financial crisis was a buying event, stupid. It’s gotten much worse post the latest financial crisis, as it’s assumed asset prices are the main (sole) focus of the all powerful central banks.

     

    To buy (pun intended) into this you have to presuppose that Black Swan events are easily controllable episodes that last short amounts of time. That the authorities have unlimited firepower to counteract every natural and man-made disaster.

     

    Equally scary, academics as well as analysts have taken to arguing that investors are overestimating the probability of crisis events. You don’t need to be a Taleb or Mandelbrot to calculate that we have been having once in a hundred year events on a regular basis for the last thirty years. Did a crisis happen, if you made money?

     

    This flawed logic argues not only buy every dip, but why waste money on hedges? It assumes unlimited deep pockets and the nerve of a non-sentient computer. Just go “all in.” Looking more like today’s world all the time. Portfolio theory thrown right out the window. Perhaps Harry Markowitz will have his Nobel revoked.

     

    A portfolio built to only withstand stress thanks to central bank intervention is one destined to blow-up spectacularly. The embedded flaw in this new logic is that central banks give investors perfect foresight. And nothing can go wrong. Re-read the Investment Process section of those prospectuses.

    * * *

    Thanks Richard, and to this we can only add the following: while there is no longer any doubt that it is constant central bank intervention that continues to prop and push up markets both in the US and around the globe, these same central planners must be getting very confused: why are traders angry if we continue to push markets higher and help everyone make money?” One day they will get it.

  • The Whole System Is Built Upon Lies And "We're In The Terminal Phase"

    Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

    At this point, despite major highs in U.S. stock markets and reassurances from no less than President of the United States himself that the economy is sound, one only need to look around to understand that we are on the cusp of what researcher and collapse strategist Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse Blog calls the “early chapters of a total meltdown.” In his latest interview with Future Money Trends Snyder notes that the fundamental economic problems we face can be seen across the globe. The United States, Europe, Asia, and South America are all crashing and no one will be immune to what comes next.

    We’re in the terminal phase of the greatest debt bubble in all of human history… The crisis that happened last time around… it was just a warning signal of what would happen if we didn’t fix our problems… and of course we didn’t fix them.

     

    It’s not sustainable… There’s going to be a permanent, massive adjustment and a loss of faith in the current system… as it unravels and implodes we’re going to see economic pain on a scale that is historic, like we’ve never seen before… when this thing finally blows it’s going to bring the existing system down.

    Full Interview via Future Money Trends:


    (Watch at Youtube)

    While most Americans think that near-record breaking stock markets are a sign of recovery and revival in the U.S. economy, Snyder goes on to warn that what we’ve seen in Greece, Cyprus, and Argentina, and what’s happening right now in Venezuela, is a coming reality to Americans.

    That could mean everything from bank holidays wherein governments authorize the seizure of account holders’ deposits, to a full-on collapse scenario like Venezuela where food, toilet paper and basic necessities become totally unavailable.

    Michael Snyder explains that the one asset class to protect and preserve wealth in the midst of crisis is precious metals and well known billionaire investors have been rapidly acquiring everything they can their hands on in recent months. And as we’ve seen just this year, when panic is the order of the day capital shifts into gold and silver as a crisis hedge.

    But that’s not all you can do to prepare for the next wave, says Snyder, and diversifying your approach to collapse-proofing your life will be critical because we simply don’t know exactly how events will play out over coming months and years:

    There’re are different strategies that are required to get through a period of crisis, even if it’s just a recession, but especially if it escalates to a full-blown historic financial crisis.

     

    For example. if people have money in financial markets they may want to evaluate what their risk is… because if things start crashing are they going to be able to survive if their investments crash to a 40% or 50% decline… can you weather that? Can you survive that?

     

    A lot of people are moving into gold and silver as a way to insulate themselves, to protect their wealth during a time of crisis.

     

    Of course, not everyone’s in the markets. One thing I really recommend to people is to have an emergency fund in the case you lose your job or there’s a business reversal… you just look back at 2008 and all of a sudden there was a huge downturn and millions of people lost their jobs…

     

    We’re already seeing corporate revenues fall… corporate profits fall… Job cut announcements by major firms in the United States were up 32% in the first quarter of 2016… We’re already starting to see it happen… people are going to lose their jobs.

     

    And because more than 60% of all Americans are living paycheck-to-paycheck when people lose their jobs they don’t have anything to fall back on… they can’t pay the mortgage… they can’t pay the bills… then we start seeing people lose their homes…  foreclosures go up..

     

    People go from living a very comfortable lifestyle to being on the street very rapidly.

     

    You’ve got to have that cushion… you’ve got to have that emergency fund.

    But an emergency fund may not be enough, because when the global economy detonates it could bring serious monetary and financial problems with it. And that means supply chains for core essentials like food could dry up because of credit freezes like we saw in Greece. Or, your money will be worth so little because of hyperinflation that you simply won’t have enough of it to put food on the table. And that’s why Snyder advocates owning alternative hard assets and supplies:

    In the longer-term… we do believe in storing up food and basic supplies… We don’t think we’re going to need them in the next week or the next month… or even in the short-term time frame… but in the mid- or long-term we believe those things are going to start to come into play…

     

    We’re just in the early chapters… we’re just seeing the early shaking.

     

    As it all plays out we believe we’re going to see a total meltdown.

     

    So, for example, if some day you can go to the bank and can’t get money out of the ATM, what are you going to do?

     

    That’s one of the reasons why we recommend not having your eggs in one basket. Spread your assets around to different banks… different types of investments, whether it’s precious metals or different types of hard assets.

    Having your assets spread around in different places makes it harder, if there is an emergency or crisis, for you to be in a situation of hardship because you can’t get access to what you need. 

    The whole system is built upon lies. And while the powers that be tout stability, what they’ve created is anything but.

    And when the house of cards comes tumbling down you can be sure that the elite will be safely tucked away in their bunkers watching it all play out live on their satellite feeds.

    They’ve already started preparing for the meltdown by diversifying into precious metals, buckets of food, personal defense armaments and other tangible assets that will be impossible to find during a crisis event.

  • Days After Wells Fargo Admits Defrauding The Government, NY Fed Rewards It With Primary Dealer Status

    Back on April 9 we described the latest example of how criminal Wall Street behavior leads to zero prison time and just more slaps on the wrist, when Warren Buffett’s favorite bank, Wells Fargo, admitted to “deceiving” the U.S. government into insuring thousands of risky mortgages.  According to the settlement, Wells Fargo “admits, acknowledges, and accepts responsibility” for having from 2001 to 2008 falsely certified that many of its home loans qualified for Federal Housing Administration insurance.

    In short: it admitted that is deceived and defrauded the government.

    Its “punishment” – a $1.2 billion settlement of a U.S. Department of Justice lawsuit, the highest ever levied in a housing-related matter.

    And now, having suffered so much trauma which led to precisely nobody going to prison, less than two weeks later it’s time for Wells to get its reward: as Bloomberg reported earlier, the “bond market’s most exclusive clubs got a new member” when the NY Fed granted the criminal Wells Fargo Primary Dealer status. 

    The brokerage arm of Wells Fargo & Co., the third-biggest U.S. bank by assets, was designated a U.S. primary dealer by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday. It’s the first addition to the list since February 2014, when the U.S.-based brokerage of Toronto-Dominion Bank was included. The roster of primary dealers has grown to 23 firms from as low as 17 in 2008, although it remains below its 1988 peak of 46.

    “A long process of working with the Fed has come to a conclusion,” Elise Wilkinson, a spokeswoman for San Francisco-based Wells Fargo, said by phone. “The scope and scale of what we’ve been doing, it’s been at the level of a primary dealer for a long time.” The process took years, Wilkinson said, declining to elaborate.

    We dread to ask just what that is.

    Others were quick to jump on board and congratulate Wells: “Inclusion of a well-capitalized, well-rated firm onto the primary dealer list can only be a positive for the Treasury market,” Kevin McPartland, head of research for market structure and technology at financial-services consulting firm Greenwich Associates, said in an e-mail.

    Of course, the only reason why Wells was granted PD status is because as Bloomberg reminds us, Wells Fargo has been expanding its lineup of bond-trading businesses as its competitors shrink. The bank has plans to start trading single-name credit default swaps, people with knowledge of the matter said last month.

    And what better way to get an implicit stamp of approval than by saying it is a Fed primary dealer, a position which also grants its direct Treasury auction access.

    Primary dealers are required to make “reasonably competitive” bids for a pro-rata share of every U.S. debt auction, according to the New York Fed. Last year, a total $2.1 trillion of Treasury bills, notes and bonds were issued, according to Sifma. The firms also trade with the Fed as it implements monetary policy, and provide market commentary for the New York Fed’s trading desk.

    Wells Fargo is moving up the ranks in investment banking and being a primary dealer in Treasury instruments signifies their rising importance in finance,” Bill Smead, chief executive officer at Seattle-based Smead Capital Management, which holds Wells Fargo shares and manages about $2.4 billion, said by e-mail.

    “This is important when other sources of revenue are scarce and will be one more way higher interest rates would be helpful to overall profits,” he said.

    Sure is, and now if only Wells can pull a Goldman and “Lehman” one of its key competitors, its revenue potential will be unmatched by almost any other bank.

  • Nine Meals From Anarchy

    Submitted by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com,

    In 1906, Alfred Henry Lewis stated, “There are only nine meals between mankind and anarchy.” Since then, his observation has been echoed by people as disparate as Robert Heinlein and Leon Trotsky.

    The key here is that, unlike all other commodities, food is the one essential that cannot be postponed. If there were a shortage of, say, shoes, we could make do for months or even years. A shortage of gasoline would be worse, but we could survive it, through mass transport or even walking, if necessary.

    But food is different. If there were an interruption in the supply of food, fear would set in immediately. And, if the resumption of the food supply were uncertain, the fear would become pronounced. After only nine missed meals, it’s not unlikely that we’d panic and be prepared to commit a crime to acquire food. If we were to see our neighbour with a loaf of bread, and we owned a gun, we might well say, “I’m sorry, you’re a good neighbour and we’ve been friends for years, but my children haven’t eaten today – I have to have that bread – even if I have to shoot you.”

    But surely, there’s no need to speculate on this concern. There’s nothing on the evening news to suggest that such a problem even might be on the horizon. So, let’s have a closer look at the actual food distribution industry, compare it to the present direction of the economy, and see whether there might be reason for concern.

    The food industry typically operates on very small margins – often below 2%. Traditionally, wholesalers and retailers have relied on a two-week turnaround of supply and anywhere up to a 30-day payment plan. But an increasing tightening of the economic system for the last eight years has resulted in a turnaround time of just three days for both supply and payment for many in the industry. This a system that’s still fully operative, but with no further wiggle room, should it take a significant further hit.

    If there were a month where significant inflation took place (say, 3%), all profits would be lost for the month for both suppliers and retailers, but goods could still be replaced and sold for a higher price next month. But, if there were three or more consecutive months of inflation, the industry would be unable to bridge the gap, even if better conditions were expected to develop in future months. A failure to pay in full for several months would mean smaller orders by those who could not pay. That would mean fewer goods on the shelves. The longer the inflationary trend continued, the more quickly prices would rise to hopefully offset the inflation. And ever-fewer items on the shelves.

    From Germany in 1922, to Argentina in 2000, and to Venezuela in 2016, this has been the pattern whenever inflation has become systemic, rather than sporadic. Each month, some stores close, beginning with those that are the most poorly capitalised.

    In good economic times, this would mean more business for those stores that were still solvent, but in an inflationary situation, they would be in no position to take on more unprofitable business. The result is that the volume of food on offer at retailers would decrease at a pace with the severity of the inflation.

    However, the demand for food would not decrease by a single loaf of bread. Store closings would be felt most immediately in inner cities, when one closing would send customers to the next neighbourhood seeking food. The real danger would come when that store also closes and both neighbourhoods descended on a third store in yet another neighbourhood. That’s when one loaf of bread for every three potential purchasers would become worth killing over. Virtually no one would long tolerate seeing his children go without food because others had “invaded” his local supermarket.

    In addition to retailers, the entire industry would be impacted and, as retailers disappeared, so would suppliers, and so on, up the food chain. This would not occur in an orderly fashion, or in one specific area. The problem would be a national one. Closures would be all over the map, seemingly at random, affecting all areas. Food riots would take place, first in the inner cities then spread to other communities. Buyers, fearful of shortages, would clean out the shelves.

    Importantly, it’s the very unpredictability of food delivery that increases fear, creating panic and violence. And, again, none of the above is speculation; it’s a historical pattern – a reaction based upon human nature whenever systemic inflation occurs.

    Then … unfortunately … the cavalry arrives

    At that point, it would be very likely that the central government would step in and issue controls to the food industry that served political needs rather than business needs, greatly exacerbating the problem. Suppliers would be ordered to deliver to those neighbourhoods where the riots are the worst, even if those retailers are unable to pay. This would increase the number of closings of suppliers.

    Along the way, truckers would begin to refuse to enter troubled neighbourhoods, and the military might well be brought in to force deliveries to take place.

    But why worry about the above? After all, inflation is contained at present and, although governments fudge the numbers, the present level of inflation is not sufficient to create the above scenario, as it has in so many other countries.

    So, what would it take for the above to occur? Well, historically, it has always begun with excessive debt. We know that the debt level is now the highest it has ever been in world history. In addition, the stock and bond markets are in bubbles of historic proportions. They will most certainly pop, but will that happen in a year? Six months? Next week?

    With a crash in the markets, deflation always follows as people try to unload assets to cover for their losses. The Federal Reserve (and other central banks) has stated that it will unquestionably print as much money as it takes to counter deflation. Unfortunately, inflation has a far greater effect on the price of commodities than assets. Therefore, the prices of commodities will rise dramatically, further squeezing the purchasing power of the consumer, thereby decreasing the likelihood that he will buy assets, even if they’re bargain priced. Therefore, asset holders will drop their prices repeatedly as they become more desperate. The Fed then prints more to counter the deeper deflation and we enter a period when deflation and inflation are increasing concurrently.

    Historically, when this point has been reached, no government has ever done the right thing. They have, instead, done the very opposite – keep printing. A by-product of this conundrum is reflected in the photo above. Food still exists, but retailers shut down because they cannot pay for goods. Suppliers shut down because they’re not receiving payments from retailers. Producers cut production because sales are plummeting.

    In every country that has passed through such a period, the government has eventually gotten out of the way and the free market has prevailed, re-energizing the industry and creating a return to normal. The question is not whether civilization will come to an end. (It will not.) The question is the liveability of a society that is experiencing a food crisis, as even the best of people are likely to panic and become a potential threat to anyone who is known to store a case of soup in his cellar.

    Fear of starvation is fundamentally different from other fears of shortages. Even good people panic. In such times, it’s advantageous to be living in a rural setting, as far from the centre of panic as possible. It’s also advantageous to store food in advance that will last for several months, if necessary. However, even these measures are no guarantee, as, today, modern highways and efficient cars make it easy for anyone to travel quickly to where the goods are. The ideal is to be prepared to sit out the crisis in a country that will be less likely to be impacted by dramatic inflation – where the likelihood of a food crisis is low and basic safety is more assured.

    Editor’s Note: Unfortunately most people have no idea what really happens when a currency collapses, let alone how to prepare…

    We think everyone should own some physical gold. Gold is the ultimate form of wealth insurance. It’s preserved wealth through every kind of crisis imaginable. It will preserve wealth during the next crisis, too.

    But if you want to be truly “crisis-proof” there's more to do…

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Today’s News 18th April 2016

  • China Ocean Freight Index Collapses to Record Low

    Wolf Richter   wolfstreet.com

    The amount it costs to ship containers from China to ports around the world, a function of the quantity of goods to be shipped and the supply of vessels to ship them, just dropped to a new historic low.

    The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) tracks contractual and spot-market rates for shipping containers from major ports in China to 14 regions around the world. It reflects the unpolished and ugly reality of the shipping industry in an environment of deteriorating global trade.

    For the latest reporting week, the index dropped 0.6% to 636.14, its lowest level ever. It has plunged 41% from the already low levels in February last year, and 36% since its inception in 1998 when it was set at 1,000. This chart shows the continuing collapse of containerized freight rates from China to the rest of the world:

    China-Containerized-Freight-Index-2016-04-15

    The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), which tracks spot-market rates (not contractual rates) of shipping containers from Shanghai to 15 destinations around the world, dropped 3.6% for the latest reporting week to 472, after another failed price recovery. It’s down 58% from February last year.

    Rates to Europe plunged $20 per twenty-foot equivalent unit container (TEU) to $271; to the Mediterranean, rates plunged $29 to $409 per TEU. To the US West Coast, rates plunged 9.3% or $79 to $770 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU).

    A year ago, the spot rates to the West Coast had already fallen 10% year-over-year, and there had been a lot of hand-wringing about them. At the time, they were $1,932 per FEU. Now they’re at $770 per FEU. In one year, these spot rates have collapsed by 60%!

    During the big plunge last year and earlier this year, the saving grace was the price of bunker fuel, which was plunging along with the price of oil. For example, according to Platts, bunker of the grade IFO380 in Los Angeles had hit a low of $118 per metric ton in mid-January. But it has since soared 91% to $225!

    Bunker prices differ, depending on grade and location around the world, and not all made this sort of break-neck snap-back price reversal. For example, IFO380 in Rotterdam soared “only” 61% from $109/mt in mid-January to $176/mt. Other locations and grades experienced lower price increases. But all bunker prices everywhere have risen sharply.

    So the ballyhooed notion that carriers, under pressure from competition, are simply passing on their fuel savings to their customers has now died an ignominious death. Instead, their margins are getting crushed.

    But there are some real reasons for the collapse in freight rates from China to destinations around the world: China’s exports have plunged. For the January through March period – to iron out the monthly volatility associated with the Lunar New Year holiday – exports are down 9.6% year-over year. Specifically:

    • To the US -8.8%
    • To Hong Kong -6.5%
    • To Japan -5.5%
    • To South Korea -11.2%
    • To Taiwan -3.7%
    • To the countries in the ASEAN -13.7%
    • To the EU -6.9%
    • To South Africa -29.6% (!)
    • To Brazil -47.2% (!!)
    • To Australia -1.9%
    • To New Zealand -12.4%.

    Exports ticked up just a tiny bit to only two major countries: India (+0.2%) and Russia (+0.2%).

    So demand for transporting containers from China to other parts of the world has withered, just when the supply of container ships has reached catastrophic levels of overcapacity.

    Last year, what had already been an overcapacity problem turned into a self-inflicted nightmare for carriers. They’d assumed ever since the bouts of QE and zero-interest-rate policies started that central banks had their back. They’d smelled the lure of cheap money. And they’d fallen for the central-bank propaganda that “bold” monetary policies could actually stimulate the real economy, the goods-consuming economy. And so, imagining years of big-fat growth, they ordered ships, including the newest mega-sized container ships. And as these new ships were delivered over the past couple of years, carriers embarked on a fight for market share by cutting prices.

    This culminated in 2015 with the delivery of new ships that added a record 1.7 million TEU of capacity to the global fleet, just when growth in global trade was grinding down. At the same time, according to Drewry, the amount of capacity scrapped in the year plunged by nearly half, with only 195,000 TEU of global capacity taken out.

    Why? “Because demolition prices were less attractive….”

    Like so many things in this world where free money created overcapacity, the rates paid for ships to be scrapped has plunged from around $475 per ldt (light displacement tonnage, the weight of the vessel including hull, machinery, and equipment) in 2012 to around $290/ldt recently.

    So far this year, scrapping activity has picked up. And everyone is hoping that this will alleviate the problem. But it’s not going to help much, according to Drewry:

    As we have highlighted before scrapping alone does very little to redress the supply-demand imbalance – last year’s scrapping total was equivalent to just 1% of the cellular fleet….

    Now carriers are hoping that the huge general rate increases they announced for May 1 – in some cases more than doubling current rates – will stick. But they tried that last spring, when overcapacity wasn’t nearly as bad, and it didn’t work. So will they have more luck this year? The Journal of Commerce put it this way: “Conditions are hardly optimal for raising rates.”

    The Chinese have among the highest savings rates in the world. But 75% of their wealth is in real estate. They’ve overinvested in one illiquid and bubbly asset that they wrongly believe can only go higher. But when prices break down, it will devastate consumer demand and reverberate around the world. Read… This Will Be Largest Evaporation of Wealth in Modern History

  • The Real Reason Hillary Clinton Refuses To Release Her Wall Street Transcripts

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    “It was pretty glowing about us,” one person who watched the event said. “It’s so far from what she sounds like as a candidate now. It was like a rah-rah speech. She sounded more like a Goldman Sachs managing director.”

     

    – From the post: What Clinton Said in Her Speeches – “She Sounded More Like a Goldman Sachs Managing Director”

    We’ve seen bits and pieces emerge from Hillary Clinton’s infamous $225,000 speech to Goldman Sachs in October 2013, but an article published by the Huffington Post yesterday adds some additional perspective. In a nutshell, the author believes that a release of these transcripts would be so damaging it would end her bid for the presidency. 

    Here are a few excerpts from the Huffington Post piece:

    The reason you and I will never see the transcripts of Hillary Clinton’s speeches to Wall Street fat-cats — and the reason she’s established a nonsensical condition for their release, that being an agreement by members of another party, involved in a separate primary, to do the same — is that if she were ever to release those transcripts, it could end her candidacy for president.

     

    In fact, it appears they’d cause enough trauma that Clinton would rather publicly stonewall — to the point of being conspicuously, uncomfortably evasive — in public debate after public debate, to endure damning editorial after damning editorial, and to leave thousands and thousands of voters further doubting her honesty and integrity, all to ensure that no one outside Goldman Sachs, and certainly no voter who wasn’t privy to those closed-door speeches, ever hears a word of what she said in them.

     

    The real experts on this topic are the friends and acquaintances of Hillary’s who, for whatever reason, have chosen to be candid about what they believe is in those speeches. And it’s only that candor that helps explain the longest-running mystery of the Democratic primary — a mystery that’s been ongoing for over seventy days — which is this: why would anyone pay $225,000 for an hour-long speech by a private citizen who (at the time) claimed to have no interest in returning to politics?

     

    Mr. Sanders has implied that there are only two possible answers: (a) the money wasn’t for the speeches themselves, but for the influence major institutional players on Wall Street thought that money could buy them if and when Clinton ran for President; or (b) the speeches laid out a defense of Wall Street greed so passionate and total that hearing it uttered by a person of power and influence was worth every penny.

     

    Per Clinton surrogates and attendees at these speeches, the answer appears to be both (a) and (b).

     

    Now here are a few examples of what we’ve heard from others:

     

    1. Former Nebraska Governor and Senator Bob Kerrey (Clinton surrogate)

    “Making the transcripts of the Goldman speeches public would have been devastating….[and] when the GOP gets done telling the Clinton Global Initiative fund-raising and expense story, Bernie supporters will wonder why he didn’t do the same….[As for] the email story, it’s not about emails. It is about [Hillary] wanting to avoid the reach of citizens using the Freedom of Information Act to find out what their government is doing, and then not telling the truth about why she did.”

     

    2. Goldman Sachs Employee #1 (present at one of the speeches)

    “[The speech] was pretty glowing about [Goldman Sachs]. It’s so far from what she sounds like as a candidate now. It was like a ‘rah-rah’ speech. She sounded more like a Goldman Sachs managing director.”

     

    3. Goldman Sachs Employee #2 (present at one of the speeches)

    “In this environment, [what she said to us at Goldman Sachs] could be made to look really bad.”

     

    4. Goldman Sachs Executive or Client #1 (present at one of the speeches)

    “Mrs. Clinton didn’t single out bankers or any other group for causing the 2008 financial crisis. Instead, she effectively said, ‘We’re all in this together, we’ve got to find our way out of it together.’”

     

    5. Paraphrase of Several Attendees’ Accounts From The Wall Street Journal

    “She didn’t often talk about the financial crisis, but when she did, she almost always struck an amicable tone. In some cases, she thanked the audience for what they had done for the country. One attendee said the warmth with which Mrs. Clinton greeted guests bordered on ‘gushy.’ She spoke sympathetically about the financial industry.”

     

    6. Goldman Sachs Employee #3 (present at one of the speeches)

    “It was like, ‘Here’s someone who doesn’t want to vilify us but wants to get business back in the game. Like, maybe here’s someone who can lead us out of the wilderness.’”

     

    7. Paraphrase of Several Attendees’ Accounts From Politico

    “Clinton offered a message that the collected plutocrats found reassuring, declaring that the banker-bashing so popular within both political parties was unproductive and indeed foolish. Striking a soothing note on the global financial crisis, she told the audience, ‘We all got into this mess together, and we’re all going to have to work together to get out of it.’”

     

    The problem with the quotes above is not merely their content — which suggests a presidential candidate not only “gushingly” fond of Wall Street speculators but unwilling to admonish them even to the smallest degree — but also that they reveal Clinton to have been dishonest about that content with American voters.

     

    Last night in Brooklyn Mrs. Clinton said, “I did stand up to the banks. I did make it clear that their behavior would not be excused.”

     

    Yet not a single attendee at any of Mrs. Clinton’s quarter-of-a-million-dollar speeches can recall her doing anything of the sort.

    During last week’s debate in New York, Hillary demanded that Bernie release his tax return, and he produced it the very next day.

    As far as Clinton’s speech transcripts, we’re still left with the following:

    Screen Shot 2016-04-16 at 12.04.35 PM

  • What If Nobody Showed Up To Vote?

    Submitted by Dan Sanchez via AntiWar.com,

    What if a presidential candidate threw a political rally, and nobody came? What if a government held an election, and nobody voted? What if that same government started a war, and nobody participated, whether in body or in spirit?

    These questions are related.

    Election season is trudging on, as are the wars. Many fans of peace hold out hope that if the former turns out a certain way, the latter may at last be mitigated.

    Some are terrified of Hillary Clinton. And who can blame them? As Secretary of State, “Dick Cheney in a pantsuit” was midwife to so many of the disasters that wrack the world with bloodshed and chaos to this day. Many anti-war folk of a left-leaning persuasion are flocking to Bernie Sanders.

    Others are more concerned with finally toppling the neocons from their perches of power. And who can blame them? The roots of our geopolitical plight reach back to before Clinton’s executive tenure, when the Bush administration neocons were launching their plans to remake the Greater Middle East. Many anti-war folk of the right-leaning persuasion are looking to Donald Trump to be their neocon-slayer.

    But is this really the best we can do?

    At the end of the day, Sanders is a moderate foreign interventionist who isn’t all too interested in foreign policy in the first place. Must anti-interventionists really settle for that in order to oppose hyper-interventionist Clinton?

    And Trump actually out-hawks many Republicans when it comes to torture, the security state, civilian casualties, and blood-for-oil. Is such a man really to be the anti-war movement’s appointed champion against the neocons?

    Thankfully, there is no need to support lesser warmongers in order to oppose greater ones.

    Imagine if all the anti-war progressives now supporting Sanders, plus all the America-firsters now supporting Trump, were to stop flooding the internet and social media with electoral polemics. What if all that passion and digital ink was redirected to the message of peace.

    Imagine “Stop the War on Yemeni Babies!” blazoned across the web instead of “Stop Hillary!” Or “Don’t Let the CIA Arm Al Qaeda in Syria” instead of “Don’t Let the Establishment Steal the Nomination from Trump.”

    An intense focus on policies over personas could really turn public sentiment against the actual combat of war, and divert public attention away from its obsession with the theatrical combat of political Wrestlemania.

    You may wonder, what about the consequences of the peace camp abandoning its stations in the electoral battle against the worst war hawks? What if as a result Hillary or Ted Cruz’s neocon allies sweep to victory?

    A clique may seize office, but the new administration will not govern in a vacuum. All regimes must strive to preserve public legitimacy. And no regime can afford to flout too blatantly the prevailing spirit of the times. The new president may have won a majority of votes. But if only a small proportion of the country actually voted in the first place, that translates into a rather shrunken mandate.

    And if the non-voting bulk of the public is stridently anti-war, that especially diminishes the president’s foreign policy mandate in particular. Faced with a sizable segment of the public intransigently opposed to war, even a militaristic president will be constrained, and may even need to draw back.  Even Richard Nixon ended a war when public opinion demanded it.

    Throughout history, most reductions in tyrannical violence have had nothing to do with the ideology or virtue of office-holders. Instead, such reforms were the result of shifts in public sentiment. Under such conditions, to be a “reformer,” a politician need no redeeming quality other than being self-serving enough to shift with the wind. And if Hillary Clinton, Ted Cruz, or any other politician are anything, it is self-serving.

    I’m not saying we should hope Hillary or Ted will win. I’m saying that who wins doesn’t matter nearly as much as the public’s attitude toward war and toward the Washington war machine itself.

    On election day, if fewer people lined up dutifully to choose between aspiring elective emperors, and more people assembled defiantly to decry the empire itself, peace would have much better prospects.

  • Visualizing The History Of Credit Cards

    Today, credit cards are one of the most important sources of big bank profits. However, a look at the history of credit cards shows that things weren’t always that way.

     

    As VisualCapitalist's Jeff Desjardins points out, while it may seem today that credit is impersonal and calculated, credit was once a privilege built around personal trust and long-lasting relationships. In the late 19th century, stores began offering credit to their best and most trustworthy customers. Instead of paying each time they visited the shop, a regular could defer payments to the future by using store-issued metal coins or plates that had their account number engraved. Shops would record the purchase details, and add the cost of the item bought to the customer’s balance owed.

    By the 1920s, shops started issuing paper cards instead of metal plates, but even these became cumbersome. Consumers had to hold different cards for each shop, and this made the sector ripe for disruption.

    Diners Club, the first independent credit card company in the world, did just that in the 1950s. Their cards allowed people to make travel and entertainment purchases, even with different vendors.

    Bank of America took this idea and ran with it, forever changing the history of credit cards. They launched the “BankAmericard” in Fresno, California, by sending it out to all 60,000 residents at once. Soon all consumers and vendors in the city were using the same card, and the concept of mass-mailing cards to the public spread like a wildfire.

    After these risky mass mailings of credit cards eventually culminated in the Chicago Debacle of 1966, they were outlawed in the 1970s for causing “financial chaos”. With no applications required, many people including compulsive debtors, crooks, and narcotics addicts were able to receive easy credit. By the time such mass airdrops became illegal, 100 million cards had already been unleashed on the U.S. population without a need for an application.

    In 1976, the BankAmericard system eventually became Visa. It was soon after this point that credit cards would enter their golden age for banks: as savings rates fell in the early 1980s, the interest rates on debt did not. Credit cards became a “cash cow”, and they’ve been a key source of bank profits ever since.

    Today, 80% of U.S. households own multiple cards, and they account for just under $1 trillion of consumer debt.

  • What Is The Worst-Case Outcome Of Helicopter Money: Deutsche Bank Explains

    Now that the next and final phase of unorthodox monetary policy, i.e., helicopter money, has had the blessing of both Mario Draghi and Ben Bernanke, and is virtually assured, there are three questions: how to trade it; where will it be implemented first (and certainly not last), and how will it all end.

    We covered the first part, how to trade it, late on Friday, courtesy of a Deutsche Bank report titled, don’t laugh, “Helicopters 101: your guide to monetary financing

     

    The next question then is: who will be (un)lucky enough to draw the first straw. The answer, according to DB, will be the same bank that as we shockingly reported at the end of January, was peer pressured into NIRP by Davos bankers, the Bank of Japan.

    Global monetary policy is at a cross-roads. Japan’s experience this year demonstrates the limits of central bank policy with the bank running out of government bonds to buy, negative rates reaching their limits and inflation expectations having almost completely unwound their Abenomics move higher…. with Japan fast approaching the limits of its existing policy response to deflation, developments need to be followed closely for signs of the next global policy innovation.

    Well, “policy innovation” sure is a polite way of putting “last ditch monetary idiocy” (the same idiocy which we predicted all the way back in March 2009 will be the ultimate endgame) but besides that we agree with Deutsche Bank: Japan will be the first nation to unveil helicopter money. After all, if it isn’t monetary or Keynesian experimentation, then simple demographics will destroy the nation… unless the Fukushima fallout doesn’t do it first.

    Finally, how would helicopter money failure look like? Here are some ideas from DB’s George Saravelos:

    A “successful” helicopter drop, defined as generating higher growth and inflation expectations but without a permanent overshoot of the inflation target, should lead to higher and steeper yield curves, a weaker currency (at least initially) and higher equity valuations.

     

    This notwithstanding, it is important to emphasize that there are alternative equilibria too. At one extreme, if the policy is not perceived as sufficient in size and impact, then the supply/demand imbalances in fixed income may be exacerbated (less issuance and debt outstanding) without a corresponding move higher in inflation expectations. This would lead to a market reaction similar to the one that followed the BoJ cut to negative rates earlier this year: lower yields, weaker equities and a stronger currency. At the other extreme, if the long-term commitment to the inflation target is challenged and central bank credibility is lost, long-dated yields would spike higher, capital flight would ensue and risk assets would substantially underperform.

    In other words, at one extreme, if the market perceives the policy as a failure, credit risk and demand/supply imbalances are likely to dominate, putting even further downward pressure on yields. At the other extreme, if the policy is perceived as a loss of monetary discipline, inflation expectations would spike, leading to an aggressive re-pricing of yields higher.

    Simply said: too little, and the deflationary vortex will swallow all; too much, and yields will explode.  DB continues:

    A “successful” helicopter drop may therefore be easier said than done given the non-linearities involved: it needs to be big enough for nominal growth expectations to shift higher and small enough to prevent an irreversible dis-anchoring of inflation expectations above the central bank’s target. Either way, the behavior of the latter is the key defining variable both for the policy’s success as well as the asset market reaction.

    Which brings us to DB’s politically correct conclusion: “under the assumption of policy “success” without fears of hyperinflation, we would conclude that bond yields rise“… the same success which DB also says “will be easier said than done”, which then means, drumroll, that the dominant outcome will be one in which “fears” of hyperinflation are justified.

    In which case, please go ahead and sell your gold to Goldman: the vampire squid has repeatedly said it will buy everything you have to sell.

  • Rousseff Party Admits Impeachment Vote Is Lost; Brazil ETF Surges

    Update 2: While the official voting process continues and still about another 40 or so votes are needed before the formal threshold to impeach Dilma Rousseff of 342 is crossed, moments ago the leader of Rousseff’s lower house party, Gumaraes, threw in the towel and admitted the vote is lost:

    • ROUSSEFF’S LOWER HOUSE LEADER SAYS IMPEACHMENT VOTE IS LOST
    • BRAZIL’S GUIMARAES: THE COUP PLANNERS WON IN THE LOWER HOUSE

    What happens next? The Senate showdown, and Rousseff who as we warned previously, will not go quietly:

    • GUIMARAES: IT WILL BE A SLOW, GRADUAL, SECURE, PROLONGED WAR

    For now however, bizarro world continues and as Brazil is about to plunge into an even deeper political crisis, the Brazilian stock ETF has surged 4.5% in Japan trading on hopes the removal of Rousseff will somehow fix the Brazilian economy overnight. It won’t, and if anything the 2016 Olympic games now appear more in jeopardy than ever.

    * * *

    Update: moments ago the Brazilian Congress began its impeachment vote. 504 members of the lower house of Congress are present for the vote, with nine absent.  It appears that the 500+ members of Brazil’s lower house will vote 1-by-1, giving little mini-speeches each time.As we reported earlier below, newspaper surveys showed the opposition has only a few votes more than the two-thirds majority needed among 513 deputies to put Rousseff to trial in the Senate. 

    * * *

    As reported on Friday afternoon, ahead of Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment vote to be held in Brazil’s Congress later today, a critical threshold was passed when, according to local Folha newspaper, more than the required 342 votes had been gathered.

    Sure enough, today all the main Brazilian newspapers dedicate their entire covers to impeachment, with Folha and Estado bringing nominal list of lawmakers’ expected votes for and against, Bloomberg reports. Furthermore, according to the latest tallies from Folha, Estado and Globo the “For” impeachment vote is currently anywhere between 347 and 350 votes, above the 342 needed.

    But while the popular sentiment is largely in the pro-impeachment camp (even if many of those standing to benefit from Rousseff’s ouster have been alleged to be as corrupt with participation in either the Carwash scandal, or to have funds parked in various offshore accounts), Rousseff refuses to go without a fight and earlier today Attorney General Jose Eduardo Cardozo wrote an op-ed in Folha saying the impeachment won’t pass if lower house respects constitution, adding that “whatever decision lower house makes today won’t solve Brazil’s political, economic and moral issues” and that many lawmakers show they don’t know the crimes on which impeachment request is based.

    He is probably correct.

    Meanwhile, PP, the party on which govt was relying on after PMDB split, may have 100% of its votes against Rousseff.

    Bloomberg notes that if Rousseff survives the impeachment vote today, Rousseff plans calling meeting with opposition leaders including PSDB’s Aecio Neves and Fernando Henrique Cardoso, and adds that if the govt loses, it will likely focus attacks on Temer to try and stop process in the Senate.

    For now however it is all about the Congressional vote, whose impeachment session started moments ago with the following headline:

    • BRAZIL LAWMAKERS IN SHOVING MATCH AS IMPEACHMENT SESSION STARTS

    Expect more of the same for the next several hours.

    Live feed from Brazil’s capital Brasilia below where thousands are already gathering ahead of tonight’s session which is expected to continue until around 10pm local time according to Eduardo Cunha, president of the chamber of deputies.

  • Absurdity: When The Con Believes The Con

    Authored by Mark St.Cyr,

    There are many infamous con games that have been foisted upon the public for millennia. Probably none more enduring than that of Charles Ponzi which bears his name as its moniker. Yet, there’s also been another who was also just as “daring” when it came to finding ways as to extract monetary gains by ill-gotten means: Victor Lustig.

    Lustig is best known as “The man who sold the Eiffel Tower.” However, it was one of his other cons that came to mind as I was thinking about the current state of monetary policy we now find ourselves in.

    Lustig’s other con was a device he slated would print $100 bills. But it had a problem.

    Unbeknown to his mark, this problem was also part of the deception. The problem was (as stated by Lustig) – it could only print 1 bill every 6 hours. The genius was; located within the machine it contained two genuine $100 bills. After that – blanks. You could be long gone, and quite far with that kind of head start back then. Yet, it’s once the con, ruse, or scam is finally exposed one thing is certain: You don’t want to still be around or found.

    As with any con game the perpetrator knows it’s all a con. In other words, “Duh!” Yet, if you listen closely to both past as well as present Fed. members you can’t help but notice by way of their current arguments, as well as, proposals for future monetary policy. The one’s who’ve truly bought into “the con” is: themselves!

    Nowhere has this been on display more than the current public writings and musings of former Fed. Chair Ben Bernanke.

    If you read his latest (which I’ve tried but can’t bear that much comedy in one sitting) he lays out what he thinks (or believes) should now take place involving Congress, the Administration, and the Fed. His great idea? Create and “fill” some arbitrary account which only the Fed. or its appointed designates have control of as to “empty” or “fill” as “Congress and Administration” see fit. But here’s the punchline, ready?

    “Importantly, the Congress and Administration would have the option to leave the funds unspent. If the funds were not used within a specified time, the Fed would be empowered to withdraw them.” (Insert laugh track here)

    Remember, this is coming not only from the former Chair, but also, one who is quite possibly the most emblematic of current thought residing throughout central bank policy makers with an additional caveat: He’s no longer bound by the position where his thoughts need to be guarded as a voting member of such policy lunacy. In other words: he can now speak his mind openly. To which I’ll muse – that’s no laughing matter when you consider how prevalent Keynesian economics now dominate.

    The latest from Bernanke exposes just how far down this “rabbit hole” central bankers have gone. So far I’ll contend – its frightful. e.g., They actually believe this subterfuge.

    When I’m giving a talk, or engaged in conversation, I often use the term “con game” when describing current monetary policy and its effect on business and more. Often the term “con” at first seems to put people on the defensive as if I’m using hyperbole, or trying to make a point by using over the top styled rhetoric.

    The problem is (I’ll explain) it is exactly that. e.g., Many forget “con” stands for confidence in con-game. And now that the $Dollar along with just about every other currency is all fiat based: confidence is the only variable that supports it in a fiat system. Period. And once it’s lost just as with any “con” – it ends with blinding speed and consequences.”

    This is the current danger now inherent after years of QE, NIRP, ZIRP, and every other acronym that represents some form or another of central bank intervention within the markets. So adulterated have the markets now become with central bank meddling; describing them without using quotes such as “markets” seems reckless. For these are far from the markets once thought to represent free market capitalism. Today they are “markets” in name only. For just like currencies – they’re no longer backed by anything once considered tangible like gold or actual net profits via 1+1=2 accounting.

    At some point printing ad infinitum, as well as, companies reporting (ad infinitum!) losses of Billions in sales and revenue while declaring “We’re killing it!” via Non-GAAP accounting will make even the most ardent supporter of Keynesian thinking question this new reality. The absurdity can only go on for so long, because, to keep up the ruse (just like suckers) more absurdity is needed. We may be reaching that end point after all these years. And the latest clue might be in the absurd recommendations emanating from central bankers themselves. For it’s becoming clearer by the day if one reads Bernanke’s latest: they think this all makes perfect sense. Talk about absurdity.

    Let me pose this question: Does anyone for a moment think China would (or will) allow the Federal Reserve along with the U.S. government carte blanche as to create “piggy banks” that can be used to help bolster its position without calling into attention the absurdity of it? Especially as it holds $TRILLIONS of U.S. debt on its own books? Imagine all this while not only the U.S. but the world of central bankers and other governments push, or brow beat Chinese current policies? Or, question their numbers for authenticity? How about Russia? Or Brazil? Or __________(fill in the blank.) Think they’ll all just stand idly by as their economies teeter on the brink of insolvency as the West just prints and points fingers?

    If you listen to the musings emanating from many of the central bankers today whether currently holding an active position, or one which has returned to the “private” sector. One would have to construe that they believe exactly that. i.e., Don’t worry – they’ll buy it because that’s what we want them too. And that absurdity is a glaring warning sign from my viewpoint.

    This shows just how far down this absurdity “rabbit hole” we’ve gone. And it can be directly contrasted with the con games of old. For it was always a given: for the ruse to work for the benefit of the perpetrator – one must have both the sense as well as alertness to “get outta Dodge” and not to be seen again as the game blows up. Today?

    So enamored with the ruse they now fall all over themselves whether on TV, radio, or print, professing what absurdity should take place next to any and all that will listen. Again, even Lustig knew printing money ex nihilo was a con. Yet today, central bankers regard that as: prudent monetary policy. The difference for a contrast in the absurdity?

    Before; it landed you a session in jail. Today? It lands you a speaking gig for $250K a session.

  • Saudi King And Princes Blackmail The U.S. Government: What Happens Next

    Submitted by Eric Zuesse, author of  They’re Not Even Close: The Democratic vs. Republican Economic Records, 1910-2010, and of  CHRIST’S VENTRILOQUISTS: The Event that Created Christianity.

    Saudi King & Princes Blackmail U.S. Government

    Saudi Arabia, owned by the Saud family, are telling the U.S. Government, they’ll wreck the U.S. economy, if a bill in the U.S. Congress that would remove the unique and exclusive immunity the royal owners of that country enjoy in the United States, against their being prosecuted for their having financed the 9/11 attacks, passes in Congress, and becomes U.S. law.

    As has been well documented even in sworn U.S. court testimony, and as even the pro-Saudi former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton acknowledged privately, "Donors in Saudi Arabia constitute the most significant source of funding to Sunni terrorist groups worldwide.” She didn’t name any of those “donors” names, but the former bagman for Osama bin Laden, who had personally collected all of the million-dollar+ donations (all in cash) to Al Qaeda, did, and he named all of the senior Saud princes and their major business-associates; and, he said, "without the money of the — of the Saudi you will have nothing.” So, both before 9/11, and (according to Hillary Clinton) since, those were the people who were paying virtually all of the salaries of the 19 hijackers — even of the four who weren’t Saudi citizens. Here’s that part of the bagman’s testimony about how crucial those donations were:

    Q: To clarify, you’re saying that the al-Qaeda members received salaries?

    A: They do, absolutely.

    So: being a jihadist isn’t merely a calling; it’s also a job, as is the case for the average mercenary (for whom it doesn’t also have to be a calling). The payoff for that job, during the jihadist’s life, is the pay. The bagman explained that the Saud family’s royals pay well for this service to their fundamentalist-Sunni faith. Another lifetime-payoff to the jihadists is that, in their fundamentalist-Sunni culture, the killing of ‘infidels’ is a holy duty, and they die as martyrs. Thus, the jihadist’s payoff in the (mythological) afterlife is plenty of virgins to deflower etc. But, the payers (the people who organize it, and who make it all possible) are the Saud family princes, and their business associates — and, in the case of the other jihadist organizations, is also those other Arabic royal families (the owners of Qater, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman). However, 9/11 was virtually entirely a Saudi affair, according to Al Qaeda’s bagman (who ought to know).

    The report of the threat by the Saud family comes in veiled form in an April 15th news-story in The New York Times, headlined, “Saudi Arabia Warns of Economic Fallout if Congress Passes 9/11 Bill.” It says that the Saud family’s Foreign Minister is “telling [U.S.] lawmakers that Saudi Arabia would be forced to sell up to $750 billion in [U.S.] treasury securities and other assets in the United States before they could be in danger of being frozen by American courts.” The NYT says that this threat is nothing to take seriously, “But the threat is another sign of the escalating tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United States.” While the carrying-out of this threat would be extremely damaging to the Saud family, the NYT ignores the size of the threat to the Sauds if their 9/11 immunity were removed — which could be far bigger. Consequently, this matter is actually quite a bit more than just “another sign of the escalating tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United States.”

    Russian Television is more direct here: “Saudi Arabia appears to be blackmailing the US, saying it would sell off American assets worth a 12-digit figure sum in dollars if Congress passes a bill allowing the Saudi Government to be held responsible for the 9/11 terrorist attacks.” (The Saudi Government is owned by the Saud family; so, even that statement is actually a veiled way of referring to the possibility that members of the royal Saud family — the individuals name by the bagman — could be held responsible for 9/11.) 

    Even immediately in the wake of the 9/11 attacks, there had been some mentions in the U.S. press of the U.S. Government making special allowances for Saud Prince Bandar al-Saud, a close friend of the Bush family (and he was also one of the Saudi Princes mentioned specifically by the bagman), to fly out of the country to avoid being sought by prosecutors. Furthermore, Newsweek’s investigative journalist, Michael Isikoff, headlined on 12 January 2001, “The Saudi Money Trail”, and he reported statements from royal Sauds, that they didn’t really mean for their donations to be going to such a thing as this. (Perhaps those individuals didn’t, but Bandar almost certainly did, because he was the Saud Ambassador to the U.S. at the time of 9/11.) However, now that the U.S. Government is relying heavily upon Saudi money to pay for the U.S. weapons and to help to organize the operation to overthrow Bashar al-Assad in Syria and to replace him with a fundamentalist-Sunni leader, there is renewed political pressure in the United States (from the victim-families, if no one else), for the arch-criminals behind the 9/11 attacks to be brought to American justice. After fifteen years, this process might finally start. That would be a drastic change.

    Clearly, the threat from the Sauds is real, and the royal response to this bill in the U.S. Congress reflects a very great fear the owners of Saudi Arabia have, regarding the possible removal of their U.S. immunity, after 15 years. 

    Prosecution of those people will become gradually impossible as they die off. But a lot more time will be needed in order for all of the major funders of that attack to die natural deaths and thus become immune for a natural reason — the immunity of the grave. The U.S. Government has protected them for 15 years; but, perhaps, not forever. 

    To say that this threat from the Sauds is just “another sign of the escalating tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United States” seems like saying that a neighbor’s threat to bomb your house would constitute just “another sign of escalating tensions” between you and your neighbor. The passing-into-law of this bill in Congress would actually constitute a change from the U.S. Government being a friend and partner of the Sauds, to becoming their enemy.

    Obviously, there is little likelihood of that happening; and, on April 20th and 21st, U.S. President Barack Obama is scheduled to meet with Saudi King Salman al-Saud. Without a doubt, this topic will be on the agenda, if it won’t constitute the agenda (which is allegedly to improve U.S. relations “with Arab leaders of Persian Gulf nations” — not specifically with Saudi King Salman and with his son Prince Salman). 

    If President Obama represents the American public, then the Sauds will have real reason to fear: the U.S. President will not seek to block passage of that bill in Congress. However, if the U.S. President represents instead the Saud family, then a deal will be reached. Whether or not the U.S. Congress will go along with it, might be another matter, but it would be highly likely, considering that the present situation has already been going on for fifteen years, and that the high-priority U.S. Government foreign-policy objective, of overthrowing Bashar al-Assad, is also at stake here, and is also strongly shared not only by the Sauds but by the members of the U.S. Congress. Furthermore, the impunity of the Saud family is taken simply as a given in Washington. And, the U.S. Government’s siding with the Sauds in their war against Shia Muslims (not only against one Shiite: Assad) goes back at least as far as 1979. (Indeed, the CIA drew up the plan in 1957 to overthrow Syria’s Ba’athist Government, but it stood unused until President Obama came into office.)

    Furthermore, the U.S. Government is far more aggressive to overthrow Russia-friendly national leaders, such as Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi, Bashar al-Assad, and Viktor Yanukovych, than it is to stop the spread of fundamentalist Sunni groups, such as Al Qaeda, ISIS, etc.; and, a strong voice for U.S. foreign policy, the Polish Government, even said, on April 15th, that as AFP headlined that day, “Russia 'more dangerous than Islamic State', warns Poland foreign minister”; and Russia itself is, along with Shiite Iran, the top competitor against the fundamentalist Sunni Arab royal families in global oil-and-gas export markets. So, clearly, the U.S. Government is tightly bound to the Saud family. Terrorism in Europe and America is only a secondary foreign-policy concern to America’s leaders; and the Saud family are crucial allies with the U.S. Government in regards to what are, jointly, the top concerns of both Governments.

    Consequently, there is widespread expectation that some sort of deal will be reached between U.S. President Barack Obama and the Saudi leaders, King and Prince Salman, and that the Republican-led Congress will rubber-stamp it, rather than pass the proposed bill to strip the Saud family’s immunity.

  • "This Will All Blow Up In The Fed's Face," Schiff Warns "Trump's Right, America Is Broke"

    Euro Pacific Capital's Peter Schiff sat down with Alex Jones last week to discuss the state of the economy, and where he sees everything going from here.

    Here are some notable moments from the interview.

    Regarding how bad things are, and what's really going on in the economy, Schiff lays out all of the horrible economic data that has come out recently, as well as making sure to take away the crutch everyone uses to explain any and all data misses, which is weather.

    "It's no way to know exactly the timetable, but obviously this economy is already back in recession, and if it's not in a recession it's certainly on the cusp of one"

     

    "We could be in a negative GDP quarter right now, and I think that if the first quarter is bad the second quarter is going to be worse"

     

    "The last couple years we had a rebound in the second quarter because we've had very cold winters. Well this winter was the warmest in 120 years so there is nothing to rebound from."

    On the Fed, and current policies, he very bluntly points out that nothing is working, nor has it worked, but of course the central planners will try it all anyway. He also takes a moment to agree with Donald Trump regarding the fact that the U.S. is flat out, undeniably broke.

    "The problem for the fed is how do they launch a new round of stimulus and still pretend the economy is in good shape."

     

    "Negative interest rates are a disaster. It's not working in Japan, it's not working in Europe, it's not going to work here. Just because it doesn't work doesn't mean we're not going to do it, because everything we do doesn't work and we do it anyway. It shows desperation, that you've had all these central bankers lowering interest rates and expecting it to revive the economy. And then when they get down to zero, rather than admit that it didn't work, because clearly if you go to zero and you still haven't achieved your objective, maybe it doesn't work. Instead of admitting that they were wrong, they're now going negative."

     

    "The United States, no matter how high inflation gets, we'll do our best to pretend it doesn't exist or rationalize it away because we have a lot more debt. America is broke, if you look at Europe and Japan even though there is some debt there, overall those are still creditor nations. The world still owes Europe money, the world still owes Japan money, but America owes more money than all of the other debtor nations combined. Trump is right about that, we are broke, we're flat broke, and we're living off this credit bubble and we can't prick it. Other central banks may be able to raise their rates, but the Fed can't."

    On how he sees everything unfolding from this point, Peter again points out that the economy is weak and it's only a matter of time before this entire centrally planned manipulation is exposed for what it is, and becomes a disaster for the Federal Reserve. He likens how investors are behaving today to the dot-com bubble, and the beginning of the global financial crisis.

    "The trigger that's going to really send us into a higher gear is going to be the admission by the Fed that the economy is weak or the markets figure it out on their own. There's not a lot of stimulus left, all they've got is potentially negative rates and a huge round of quantitative easing, and this thing is going to blow up in the Fed's face."

     

    "Investors still just don't get what's going on. For the past several years everybody has been positioned as if this recovery were real, that it was sustainable, and that the Fed could normalize interest rates and everything was going to be fine. The first quarter of this year investment returns, it was the worst quarter in eighteen years for actively managed funds."

     

    "The federal reserve has not solved our problems, but exacerbated them."

     

    "You've got big banks like Goldman Sachs shorting gold, telling their clients to short gold. A lot of people unfortunately listen to Goldman Sachs, and they're doing the wrong thing. A lot of times the markets are just mis-priced, because so many people don't get it. Just like all the people who were buying the subprime mortgages before the bottom dropped out of the market, or all the people who were buying thos dot-com stocks for several years before they collapsed. The same thing is going to happen now."

    ***

    Full Interview Here

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Today’s News 17th April 2016

  • Former IRS Agent Admits: "Personal Income Tax is Actually Illegal"

    Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

    It is tax day again.

    Chances are, you’re done with the dirty business this year, or laying low in hopes that you aren’t audited or flat out persecuted. If not, the clock is quickly ticking.

    But it is worth pointing out once again the many ways in which the federal tax scheme in the United States is illegal.

    Moreover, the spending by the Federal government and the role of the Federal Reserve in issuing money create overlapping levels of evil that have driven the American people into mere serfs – albeit with cool toys and great TV reception.

    Former IRS Special Agent Joe Bannister explains to CNBC what he found out about the reality of the tax code:

    Essentially, its many pages are a work of legal fiction, operating under ‘color of law’ and used to oppress the people, and separate established wealth from everyone else.

    Bannister argues that by the books, the incomes of most Americans are not subject to the tax code, but the use of intimidation and nebulous code language has prevented the vast majority from discovering the truth.

    In this vintage clip, then-Congressman Ron Paul argues that the 16th Amendment wasn’t properly ratified, leaving the 1913 “law” dubious at best.

    Nonetheless, the use of intimidation and the custom of “death and taxes” has left millions and millions of people guilty until proven innocent, often labeled as “tax cheats” who are targeted without due process and with police state vengeance… now, they are attaining the power to revoke your passport if you don’t pay what they say you owe!

    Will the American people ever be free from the burden of illegal taxation?

    The late Aaron Russo, who produced several classic Hollywood films, put it all out in his documentary “America: Freedom vs. Fascism.”

    If you haven’t seen it, Russo digs into the questions behind the questions and exposes the naked fraud that is holding America hostage.

    This is a must see documentary… and one to share with friends and family while they still have the nation’s ridiculous and obscene tax burden on their minds.

    Make no mistake – simply knowing about this information will not protect you. As Russo has noted, the system is very much like a mob. If you don’t pay, they might hurt you, fine you, penalize you or even jail you. But none of that makes it right, fair or legal.

    April 15th should be a reminder of how little freedom is left in the nation that so-often prides itself on being the leader of the free world – but the last thing Washington would ever do is let people be.

  • Kyle Bass On The Resurgence Of Gold And The Looming "Run On Cash"

    Hayman Capital founder Kyle Bass sat down recently for a conversation with Maria Bartiromo and Gary Kaminsky on Wall Street Week. He covered a variety of topics such as NIRP, income inequality, and the U.S. presidential race. As our regular readers know, Kyle correctly predicted the housing crisis, and is now calling for the yuan to be dramatically devalued.

    On the growing use of negative interest rates as a central bank policy tool, he pointed out that while the central planners have their PhD's and elaborate excel models, the reality is that not all people behave rationally, and thus in the real world those types of policies won't necessarily work as intended. He also touched on the fact that a concern that should be on the front of everyone's mind is the fact that if NIRP goes full Shinzo Abe and banks start charging customers for keeping cash at their banks, that there will be a run on cash.

    "I think this is where the academics are kind of clashing with the practitioners. I think on paper negative rates make a lot of sense if you're running academic models, but in reality they make no sense. Having seven or eight trillion dollars of debt trading at negative rates, having thirty year JGB's trading at fifty basis points is absolutely ludicrous. This experiment that's going on we all know will end poorly at some point in time, I just don't know when that time is."

     

    "I think that one of the fears that they have is a run on cash. If they told you and I that they're going to tax your deposits by a hundred basis points, well it's better to put it in a safe or under your mattress. And that's why you see a resurgence in gold. The more they move to negative rates, the more gold is gonna take off because there's no carrying cost."

    Regarding what's going on in Asia, he reiterates his call that there's a giant credit bubble (as we discussed here, here, and here) that's reached its breaking point and it's going to burst over the next two or three years. He says that he believes the implosion of the china credit bubble will have a 40-50% chance of causing a recession in the U.S. within the next year.

    "From the perspective of what's going on in Asia, Asia has a giant credit bubble that they've been building for the last ten years or longer that has reached its atrophy level, and it's going to happen over the next two or three years. Whether that causes the U.S. to have a brief, minor recession, I think it's kind of forty, fifty percent chance in the next year personally."

    He goes on to hammer the central banks' monetary policy decisions, saying that they can't generate true organic growth and that we've been doing the same thing for the past eight years and we're still in the situation we're in. Something Zero Hedge has been pointing out consistently over the past seven years.

    "I don't buy this idea that monetary policy can generate true organic growth. It can help us out of a crisis, and it's proven to do so, but listen we've had eight years of full out excessive monetary and fiscal policies and here we are today. So when Lagarde goes to the G-20 and says we all need to work together, we've been working together. Everybody has been on easy monetary policy, we've pulled all the demand forward that we can, and now we're stuck with kind of stagnation and excess capacity and a lot of debt."

     

    "Economics assumes that everyone is a rational actor, and we all know in this world there aren't many rational actors. That's where there's a divergence between academia and practitioners."

    When the conversation turns to the U.S. presidential race, Bass said that Hillary would be the best choice given everyone that's running. When Maria mentioned that Hillary would raise taxes, Kyle lambasted the federal reserve easy monetary policy that only made the rich richer.

    "So I'll give you a crazy answer, I think it's Hillary. I think she's the most sane actor of them all."

     

    "Raising taxes, I mean, one thing you have to think about is this divide between the haves and the have-nots. One unintended consequence of Fed easy monetary policy has been this distributive nature where it made the rich richer. How many rich people do you know today that are worse off than they were at the peek of 2006. I don't know one, minus some of the Lehman people, I don't know one. What happened is we went to this policy where we went to QE, QE what that did was raise asset prices, well the only people with assets are rich people in general, so they became much more rich."

     

    Watch the latest video at video.foxbusiness.com

  • China Embraces Gold In Advance Of Post-Dollar Era

    Submitted by Koos Jansen via AllChinaReview.com,

    To challenge the US dollar hegemony and increase its power in the global realm of finance, China has a potent gold strategy. Whilst the State Council is preparing itself for the inevitable decay of the current international monetary system, it has firmly embraced gold in its economy. With a staggering pace the government has developed the Chinese domestic gold market, stimulated private gold accumulation and increased its official gold reserves in order to ensure financial stability and support the internationalisation of the renminbi.

    “The outbreak of the crisis and its spillover to the entire world reflect the inherent vulnerabilities and systemic risks in the existing international monetary system…. The desirable goal of reforming the international monetary system, therefore, is to create an international reserve currency that is disconnected from individual nations and is able to remain stable in the long run…”

     

    Quote from Governor of the PBOC Zhou Xiaochuan 2009.

    In the present zeitgeist we find ourselves on the verge of a shift in the global monetary order. The shocks through the financial complex in 2008 that reaffirmed the innate fragility of the US dollar as the world reserve currency have sparked China to become a vocal proponent of de-Americanization, although its end goal is communicated less clearly. Being the second largest economy of the world but relatively in arrears regarding physical gold reserves, China has a strong motive to surreptitiously work on its gold program until completion. For, if it would be candid in its gold ambitions, the price would significantly run higher, potentially disturbing financial markets and narrowing its window of opportunity to prepare for the next phase.

    State Council Rapidly Developed Domestic Gold Market And Stimulated Private Hoarding

    China has been infatuated with gold for thousands of years. In the mainland, gold mining and use can be traced back to at least 4,000 years ago, and the metal has always represented economic strength and was regarded as the emperors’ symbol of power. Although the Communist Party of China captured the monopoly in gold trade and heavily restricted private gold possession since 1949, in lockstep with the gradual liberalisation and the ascend of the Chinese economy the state started to develop the domestic gold market in the late seventies, which accelerated in 2002.

    A new page was turned when the Gold Armed Police started operating in 1979, not coincidentally a few years after the US detached its dollar, the world reserve currency, from gold. This army division was initially assigned to gold mining exploration and has done so quite fruitfully. Since 1979, Chinese domestic mining output has grown 2,137 % from an annual 20 tonnes to an estimated 467 tonnes in 2015. In 1982, the first steps were taken in reviving China’s gold retail channels. For the first time since 1949 people were allowed to buy jewelry and the China Gold Coin Incorporation started issuing Panda coins. The Peoples Bank Of China (PBOC) continued to be the primary gold dealer that fixed the price and controlled all supply flows.

    The real reform of the Chinese gold market was implemented on 30 October 2002 by the launch of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, erected to serve the full liberalisation of the domestic gold market. From that date the fixing of the gold price in China was transmitted from the PBOC to the free market. In 2004, the State Council approved gold as an investment for individuals and the PBOC slowly repelled control over supply flows. The Chinese gold market fiercely rose from its ashes. By 2007 the market was functioning as intended when nearly all gold supply and demand was flowing through the SGE system6. A year later, in 2008, the Shanghai Futures Exchange launched a gold futures contract supplementing existing derivatives at the SGE.

    The Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), which is a subsidiary of the PBOC, is the very core of the Chinese physical gold market. Its infrastructure provides a single liquid exchange overseen by the state, granting all participants a trusty venue that can be efficiently developed and monitored. The mechanics of the Chinese market incentivise nearly all supply and demand to connect within the SGE system. As a consequence, by the amount of gold withdrawn from the vaults of the SGE – data that was published up until December 2015 in the Chinese Market Data Weekly Reports – we could gauge Chinese wholesale gold demand.

    After the crisis in 2008, it became apparent in the higher echelons of the Chinese government that the development of the gold market and private accumulation had to accelerate to protect the Chinese economy from looming turmoil. Through state owned banks and media wires the citizenry were stimulated to diversify savings into physical gold. Currently, at Chinese banks, numerous gold saving programs can be entered into, or individuals can open an SGE account and purchase gold directly in the wholesale market.

    “Individual investment demand is an important component of China’s gold reserve system, …. Practice shows that gold possession by citizens is an effective supplement to official reserves and is essential for our national financial security.”

     

    Quote by the President of the China Gold Association 2012.

    When the gold price came down sharply in April 2013, Chinese gold demand literally exploded as in a once in a lifetime event. In between 22 and 26 April, 117 tonnes of physical gold were withdrawn from the vaults of the SGE.

     

    gold_graph

     

     

    China has been a gigantic gold buyer ever since. Withdrawals from the vaults of the SGE in 2015 accounted for 2,596 tonnes (90 % of global annual mine output), up from a mere 16 tonnes in 2002. SGE withdrawal data correlates with elevated gold import by China.

    Whilst clearly enjoying their bargain purchases, China has established a trend of increasingly obfuscating the true size of its gold demand. Not long ago several reports were released in the mainland that disclosed total gold demand to be the equivalent to SGE withdrawals. Since 2012 these reports have been hidden from public eyes and in January 2016 the SGE ceased publishing withdrawal data10. Although annual SGE withdrawals have exceeded 2,100 tonnes since 2013, what is generally publicised as gold demand is roughly half of this, merely the demand at jewelry shops and banks that excludes direct purchases from individual and institutional clients at the SGE. As a result, the global consensus is that Chinese gold demand is approximately 1,000 tonnes a year though in reality it’s twice this volume.

    PBOC Accumulating Gold To Support Renminbi Internationalisation

    To free itself from US dollar supremacy and force the sequent monetary system, China’s goal is to internationalise the renminbi. For achieving its target, gold is identified as the key. It is the absolute monetary asset to support the renminbi, the dollars’ Achilles heel and a hedge during monetary stress. Next to the swift progression in the Chinese private gold market we can observe the PBOC is covertly buying gold and has launched the Shanghai International Gold Exchange to prepare renminbi internationalisation.

    For China the strategic mission of gold lies in the support of renminbi internationalization, and so let China become a world economic power…. Gold is both a very honest asset and forms the very material basis for modern fiat currencies…. Gold is the world’s only monetary asset that has no counter party risk, and is the only cross-nation, cross-language … and cross-culture globally recognized monetary asset.

     

    That is why in order for gold to fulfill its destined mission, we must raise our gold holdings a great deal, and do so with a solid plan. Step one should take us to the 4,000 tonnes mark, more than Germany and become number two in the world, next, we should increase step by step towards 8,500 tonnes, more than the US.”

     

    Quote by the President of the China Gold Association 2014.

    Not surprisingly, China’s strategy is everything but linear. Let us analyse the State Council’s most recent actions with respect to gold and the internationalisation of the renminbi. In addition to gold accumulation, the State Council has aimed to kick start renminbi internationalisation by having it included into the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) basket of currencies, the Special Drawing Rights (SDR), in 2015. For acceptance, the IMF required openness of China’s international reserves, of which the PBOC hadn’t updated its gold reserves since 2009. Here we found the PBOC stretched between opposing forces; it obviously preferred to hoard gold in concealment not to disturb financial markets, while at the same time it was requested to open its books. In July 2015 the PBOC decided to revise its official gold reserves by 604 tonnes to 1,658 tonnes, which was probably not the whole truth but served both means, as markets barely reacted to the increment – the gold price has not increased since then – and the IMF has granted annexation of the renminbi into the SDR.

    How much gold does the PBOC truly hold? Before we make an estimate we must first address the question, how and where does the PBOC buy gold? Some analysts assume the PBOC buys gold in the domestic market at the SGE. According to my research this is not true. My sources in the bullion industry tell me first hand that the PBOC buys gold in the international OTC market using Chinese banks as proxies. And this intelligence fits into the wider analysis, as there are many reasons why the PBOC would not buy gold through the SGE.

    A rough estimate suggests the PBOC holds nearly 4,000 tonnes in gold reserves, more than twice the amount they officially disclose. In a quest for any clues we must visit the heart of the gold wholesale market. Data by the London Bullion Market Association points out there have been approximately 1,700 tonnes of monetary gold exported from London between 2011 and 2015. China’s central bank is the foremost suspect for these purchases, given its size and motives, and the tonnage exported from London is consistent with other sources that state the PBOC has bought roughly 500 tonnes a years since 2009. All clues together point to the PBOC holding roughly 4,000 tonnes currently. Although this remains speculation.

    More of China’s gold strategy was revealed by the recent launch of the Shanghai International Gold Exchange (SGEI) that offers gold trading in renminbi for clients worldwide, in an attempt by China to strengthen the internationalisation of the renminbi. In itself the SGEI clearly underlines China’s gold ambitions16, but the punch line was added with the launch of the Silk Road Gold Fund in 201517. Led by the SGE(I), the $16 billion fund will boost the gold industry along the Silk Road and in turn “will facilitate gold purchases for the central banks of member states to increase their holdings of the precious metal”, according to the Chinese state press agency Xinhua18. Not only is China trying to persuade all mining and consumption of gold along the Silk Road economic project to be settled through the SGEI in renminbi, additionally the Chinese promote gold as an essential component of central banks’ international reserves going forward.

    We must conclude that the State Council views gold as part of the coming international monetary system. Why else does it quickly develop the domestic gold market to be embedded in financial markets, surreptitiously accumulate vast gold reserves and establish a framework to boost gold business on the Eurasian continent around the SGEI? In my view, China contributes significant value to its gold strategy in the shadow of the apparent failure of the current fiat monetary system. And if true, China’s central bank having nearly 4,000 tonnes of gold is well on its way to introduce the next phase.

  • Police Unleash Teargas After Massive Migrant Brawl Erupts At Paris Train Station

    It appears Europe's refugee 'problem' is un-fixed again. Riot police were called in to break up a violent clash between hundreds of migrants and a 'vigilante group' near a Paris metro station. As The Daily Mail reports, footage from Stalingrad metro, where more than a thousand migrants have been living rough, showed hundreds of men brawling with metal poles and planks of wood.  

     

    Riot police used tear gas to disperse the crowd

     

    The police are said to have been pelted with bottles and debris when the arrived at the scene of the fight between the homeless migrants and a so called 'anti crime brigade' from Stalingrad, which lies in the 19th arrondissement of Paris. The video was filmed from the relative safety of a nearby apartment on the Boulevard de la Vilette. At least four migrants were wounded in the riot, which was one of two that erupted last night. Both men were rushed to the nearby Lariboisière hospital for treatment.

    Almost 1,000 migrants have arrived in the area in just over a month, many travelling from Calais having crossed the Mediterranean from Africa and the Middle East. French Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve had earlier announced the removal of the camp in a joint statement with Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo, but the migrants returned with makeshift mattresses two weeks later.

  • The Keynesian House Of Denial

    Submitted by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

    We use the term “Keynesian” loosely to stand for economic interventionists of all schools. The followers of JM Keynes and Milton Friedman alike fit that category. So do some of the more rabid supply siders who claim the power to stimulate ultra-high economic growth with the tools of tax policy alone.

    The common denominator is economic statism. That is, the assumption that the state, including its central banking branch, is indispensable to economic progress and prosperity.

    As the various denominations of the Keynesian economic church have it, capitalism is always veering toward the ditch of under-performance and recession when left to its own devices and natural tendencies; and, if neglected by the wise policy-makers of the central state too long, it lapses toward outright depression and collapse.

    Our purpose here is not to correct the particular philosophical and analytic errors associated with each of these Keynesian or statist variants. On any given day we make it pretty clear the central banking based mutation of modern Keynesianism is predicated on two cardinal errors. Namely, the myth of demand deficiency and the false presumption that central bank pegging of interest rates, yield curves and other financial prices will enhance macro-economic performance while not harming the efficiency, stability and efficacy of money and capital markets.

    That’s completely wrong. The very worst thing the state can do is meddle with and falsify financial market prices. Sooner or later cheap debt, repressed volatility, stock market “puts” and artificially inflated asset prices drain the genius of markets out of capitalism. What remains in the financial system is raw speculation for the purpose of rent gathering and leverage for the purpose of supercharged gambling.

    On the other hand, what gets lost is true capital formation, honest price discovery and allocative efficiency. These are the building blocks of true macroeconomic expansion and rising wealth.

    The irony is that the theories of Keynes and Friedman were designed to enable exactly that. Yet after having been morphed and melded into the cult of central banking in recent decades they have become a generator of main street stagnation and impoverishment.

    In that regard, we have frequently pointed out that behind all the pretentious jargon and faux economic science of the likes of Yellen, Bernanke, Dudley and Fischer is little more than the “D” word. They believe that an economy can never have enough Debt.

    At the end of the day there is no other purpose for the lunacy of 87 straight months of ZIRP and the fraud of $3.5 trillion worth of QE/bond-buying with digital credits conjured from nothing. It’s all designed to get the primary economic agents—households, business and governments—-to borrow and spend.

    The contemporary central bank based mutation of the old Keynesian and Friedmanite fallacies is rooted in this debt-centric economics but is far more dangerous. Owing to his anti-gold standard worldview, Friedman failed to realize that fiat money was nothing more than debt, but at least he swore an oath of restraint in the form of a fixed rule (such as 3% per annum) for the growth of credit money.

    Even Keynes was not completely beguiled by the elixir of debt. His fiscalist angle had more to do with the class snobbery of the early 20th century English literati than an open-ended embrace of debt.

    He simply felt that businessmen where less enlightened then high-minded civil servants as he had been at the British Treasury. When the former episodically lost their animal spirits, they left the economy awash in excess savings and the working class bereft of jobs. The function of the state, therefore, was to borrow the excess during periods of macroeconomic slack and put it to good use in public works——even digging holes (with or without spoons) and refilling them.

    This got popularized in the notion of “pump priming” as originally articulated by New Deal activists such as Mariner Eccles. But the primitive counter-cyclical policy of the 1930s and the far more sophisticated Keynesian New Economics of the 1960s did not embrace the never too much debt predicate of Bernanke and Yellen.

    After all, it was LBJs Keynesian advisors who campaigned aggressively for a anti-inflationary tax hike and fiscal retrenchment in the white hot “guns and butter” economy of 1968. The Democrat’s Walter Heller and the Republican’s Herb Stein differed as to when and how much pump-priming was warranted, but they agreed that it was only an occasional tonic and that the budget should be balanced over the cycle.

    This long forgotten catechism of fiscal balance over the business cycle is crucially important; adherence to it would not have led to an endless rise in the public leverage ratio.

    When President Kennedy’s New Economics team took over in the early 1960s, they argued for stimulative tax-cuts and temporary deficits. But none claimed that the American economy was drastically impaired because the permanent public debt was only 40% of GDP, not today’s 103%. And they further believed that even the incremental public debt from stimulative deficits would be soon paid back by the resulting gains in GDP and tax collections.

    For that matter, total credit outstanding in the public and private sectors combined was only 150% of GDP, not today’s 340%. And that do make a difference. At the century-old historic debt-to-GDP ratio of 150%, the US economy would be dragging around $27 trillion of debt today, not its actual albatross of $62 trillion.

    The fact is, the Keynesian fiscalist of the New Economics could not even have imagined today’s leverage ratios on the business and household sectors, either.

    Needless to say, the transformation of the ideas of Keynes and Friedman into the doctrine and practice of plenary central banking has resulted in a hybrid mutant. Counter-cyclical pump-priming has now become the practice of permanent stimulus and the presumption that capitalism is always defaulting into underperformance and worse.

    Likewise, the temporary allocation of “excess savings” from the private to the public sector has become the permanent expansion of fiat credit money. And this massive growth of central bank balance sheets, in turn, has resulted in a monumental and fraudulent inflation of government bond prices.

    Most destructive of all, the Friedmanite 3% rule of money supply growth has become forgotten, inoperative and irrelevant. In a fractional reserve banking system where Greenspan essentially abolished via sweep accounts the need for reserves on deposit money, Bernanke/Yellen nevertheless flooded the system with $2.4 trillion of excess reserves where virtually none were needed at all.

    What this means is that policy makers and the main stream media that xerox their proclamations, prognostications and pettifoggery have become myopic. To wit, so long as the central bank is in full-on stimulus mode——and by any historical standard a 38 bps money market rate is exactly that—–the economy can not fail or lapse into recession. Economic growth and expansion are definitional.

    That’s why central bankers and their Wall Street camp followers never see recession coming. It can’t happen on their watch!

    So this week we got another flashing yellow light. The core data from the business economy warns that the current tepid and long-in-the-tooth business expansion is coming to an end and that the next recession is lurking just around the corner, if it has not already arrived.

    With the March decline, industrial production has now dropped during 13 out of the last 16 months. As Mish demonstrates in the charts below, this has never happened when the US economy was in an actual “escape velocity” mode.

    Industrial Production 2016-04-15A

     

    Industrial Production 2016-04-15

    To be sure, Keynesian apologists claim that industrial production is not so important any more. But as we shall demonstrate next week, that’s pure rationalization.

    The Eccles Building and its Washington/Wall Street acolytes have become a House of Keynesian Denial because the assumption that capitalism is an 80 pound recessionary weakling without the constant ministrations of the state is dead wrong.

    Chapter and verse on that statist error is the topic on deck for next week. Not even the supply siders have escaped its deadly grasp.

  • Saudi Arabia is the OPEC Villian (Video)

    By EconMatters

     

    Saudi Arabia really should negotiate a Production Freeze agreement where Iran can get back to producing 4 Million Barrels per day.

     

    Russia and Saudi Arabia both need to start cutting Oil Production and not just freezing oil production at all time production highs. They should be following what the Shale Industry is doing with regard to production cuts in the United States. It is unreasonable to expect Iran after 20 years of sanctions not to be able to ramp up some production as Saudi Arabia (A fellow OPEC Member) has gained much oil market share at Iran`s expense over the last 20 plus years of international sanctions.

    © EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle    

  • Draft Of Doha "Oil Freeze" Agreement Leaked

    With the world’s attention about to focus on Qatar where in just a few hours the Doha OPEC “freeze” meeting is supposed to start (without the presence of Iran which has made it clear it won’t freeze production but “supports the decision for other OPEC and non-OPEC countries to freeze crude oil production” so everyone except Iran), moments ago Tass presented a glimpse of what will be announced.

    According to the Russian news agency, a draft agreement of the oil producer countries expected to be signed tomorrow in Doha stipulates that the output will be frozen at the level of January 2016 until October, Azerbaijan’s Energy Minister Natiq Aliyev said in an exclusive interview with TASS on Saturday on the eve of a major off-schedule conference of OPEC and non-OPEC oil producing nations.

    The draft agreement is not large,” Aliyev said. “It is as follows: the states gathering in Doha have reached a conclusion that for normalizing the oil price they agreed to freeze the output at the level of January 2016 until October.”

    In other words, the member nations will agree to “freeze” production at output levels that are already record high for the Saudis, Russians and Iraq, even as Iran just boosted its production by some half a million barrels per day.

    There is just one problem: there is no actual enforcement mechanism, and since this is OPEC where everyone looks to cheat before everyone else, it means that the ink on the agreement won’t be dry yet, and every country will be pumping like mad to new record-er highs.

    According to Tass, the agreement in Doha to freeze oil output will be “gentlemen-like” as the draft stipulates no control mechanisms, Aliyev went on to say.

    Aliyev said  that “the agreement is gentlemen-like as the countries realize that the maintained norms of output will suit the joint interests. It does not envisage any control mechanisms and each country should observe its implementation.” Which, incidentally, is decidedly false as Saudi Arabia clearly has had its own unique interests ever since the November 2014 OPEC meeting which saw Saudi Arabia break out on its own and in the process effectively end the OPEC production cartel.

    “There is no need in a supervisory body,” he said. “No proposals have come since it will have no influence on the countries.”

    So… why is OPEC even pretending to freeze production? Oh yes, in hopes the algos will be dumb enough to attempt another forced short squeeze.

    “We are ready to sign the agreement in a form that we have seen,” Aliyev said.

    Which is another lie, as just last night the Saudi deputy crown price said without Iran, the world’s biggest oil producer will also not sign. Not adhering to the truth did not stop the Azerbaijani, however, who continued:“We believe that all the delegates who arrived in Doha are set to sign it, or why then they came here, otherwise.”

    Meanwhile, OPEC has already set its price target as a result of tomorrow’s farcical agreement.

    The oil price will be climbing up slowly but persistently to $50 per barrel by the end of 2016 after big oil producer countries seal a deal in Doha, Azerbaijan’s Energy Minister Natiq Aliyev told TASS on Saturday.

     

    “The higher is the price the better,” Aliyev said. “But we expect that it will be slowly and gradually increasing towards $50 per barrel by the year’s end. The next year we will be satisfied with the price of $60 per barrel.”

    Natiq Aliyev may be quickly disappointed with his $50 forecast, unless he is of course right, in which case US shale producers who have been taking every opportunity to hedge future production around $40, will promptly resume pumping at maximum capacity and add to the global oil glut which as of this moment is between 2 and 3 million barrels per day, and where the real problem remains a lack of demand to force the excess supply into equilibrium.

    * * *

    Finally, for those who missed it on Friday, here again is Citi’s one minute assessment of how the market will react to the “gentleman-like agreement”

    If there is no agreement, then expect a sharp oil market sell-off on Monday. If there is an agreement in name but market participants realize it has no teeth, except a slower sell-off.

    To summarize:

    1. Iran will be absent as it wants no part of a production freeze
    2. Saudis have confirmed no production freeze unless Iran also freezes
    3. A gentleman-like agreement to cap production until October (or another 5 months of headline-driven algo stop hunts higher) at what are already record production levels for the top oil producing nations.
    4. No enforcement mechanism.

    We fully expect the algos to fall for it again, especially with an early momentum jolt higher courtesy of 1 or 2 central banks.

  • Marathon Oil Wants You

    After shaving ~13% of their work force in 2015, Marathon Petroleum is asking you to come back and given them a second chance.

    Via LinkedIn:
     

    If you only have a bachelor’s degree, Marathon has an internal auditor position just for you:

    1JobSolution.com:

  • "America First" – The Trump Slogan the Establishment Hates

    Submitted by Justin Raimondo via AntiWar.com,

    Why do they hate Donald Trump?

    Why has the Establishment pulled out all the stops in an effort to smear him, stop him, and crush him underfoot? Every single day the “mainstream” media unleashes a foam-flecked fusillade of fury at the GOP front-runner: he’s a “racist,” he’s “corrupt,” his campaign manager is a “bully,” he “incites violence,” etc. etc. ad nauseam.

    Of course the media is going to attack any Republican candidate. However, this time the GOP elite is joining in, and the level of ferocity is something we haven’t seen since 1964. That was the year Barry Goldwater’s trip to Germany provoked a report by Daniel Schorr on the CBS Evening News that falsely linked the GOP candidate to German neo-Nazis – while Nelson Rockefeller denounced Goldwater’s delegates as “extremists” who “feed on fear, hate, and terror.”

    Yes, “terror”!

    The same violence-baiting hysteria is being deployed against Trump, but one has to wonder what’s behind it. I was watching Bill O’Reilly the other day, and he was saying that it has to do with the elite’s visceral dislike of Trump as a personality. They think he’s a “vulgarian” who appeals to the rubes in flyover country. Well, there’s something to that: these consumers of arugula and “artisan” cheese no doubt disdain the hamburgers-and-beer crowd embodied by Trump’s persona, but there’s more to it than that. And I can sum it up in two words: foreign policy.

    Yes, yes, I know: foreign policy isn’t supposed to figure in presidential elections. Dan Drezner keeps telling us that. And yet I couldn’t help but notice that the anti-Trump hysteria hit a high note (or is that a new low?) when he came out with a series of foreign policy pronouncements and started attacking NATO. The hairs on the back of the necks of the foreign policy wonks must’ve stood at attention when he adopted “America first” as his campaign slogan.

    An article in USA Today gives voice to the panic of the elites at this evocation of a past they thought they’d successfully banished from the American political landscape:

    “In embracing “America First’’ as his guiding foreign policy philosophy, Donald Trump appropriated – spontaneously, it seems – one of the most denigrated political slogans of the last century, and one that evokes an isolationism Trump himself explicitly rejects.

     

    “’It’s a rotten term that evokes the naive idiots, defeatists and pro-Nazis who wanted to appease Hitler and make friends with him’ before World War II, says Susan Dunn, author of 1940: F.D.R., Willkie, Lindbergh, Hitler – The Election Amid the Storm. That said, she doesn’t think the old phrase means much today.

     

    “Trump’s use of an expression so dated and discredited reflects his willingness to dip into the past for catch phrases that, no matter their historical baggage, can still appeal to voters.”

    Ms. Dunn’s book is a compendium of every falsehood ever hurled at the America Firsters: she lionizes the corporate shill Wendell Wilkie, and – prefiguring the anticipated theft of the GOP nomination this year – whitewashes the effort by the Eastern Establishment to bring in “the barefoot boy from Wall Street’ at the last moment to stop the “isolationist” Taft, stealing delegates and pressuring them financially to support the elite’s chosen candidate. Dunn’s line is similar to that of the Communist Party, which, at the time, was aligned with Roosevelt: they acted as the vanguard of the anti-Taft pro-war forces, hurling accusations of pro-Nazism and anti-Semitism at such “bigots” as Norman Thomas, Gerald Ford, and other America Firsters who wanted to keep us out of the European conflagration.

    Chicago Tribune publisher Robert Rutherford McCormick, whose newspaper valiantly stood against the Anglophile-warmongering tide, accurately predicted that entering the war would have to mean yet another long struggle, this time against the Soviet Union – and that’s precisely what occurred. Yet court historians of Dunn’s ilk are blind to such prescience: according to her, Wilkie was a hero for turning against the GOP after his humiliating defeat and becoming one of Roosevelt’s lapdogs.

    Dunn is quite wrong about something else as well: the slogan “America First” does mean something today, which is why she and her comrades on both sides of the political aisle are screaming bloody murder whenever Trump repeats the forbidden phrase. Trump’s other catchphrases – “the silent majority’’ and “Make America great again”  – “were in the Political Rhetoric Hall of Fame when Trump found them,” the USA Today piece goes on to inform us, but “not America First, which overnight went from one of the most popular rallying cries in U.S. politics to the most bankrupt.”

    Bankrupt? Really? At its height, the America First Committee was the biggest antiwar movement in American history, with 900,000 members and majority support. Americans remembered the tragedy of World War I – that vicious killing field that only succeeded in creating the conditions for a repeat – and wanted no part of the European horror show. Yet the elites were solidly pro-interventionist: the Eastern Establishment, which worshipped England, and the left-wing radical professors, who worshipped “Uncle” Joe Stalin, were united in their determination to get us into the war. Their allegiances, in both cases, were to a foreign power – thus their opposition adopted the only possible brand name: America First.

    World War II is the supreme narrative of the interventionists, both right and left, whose version of its genesis bears no more resemblance to its true origins than does the creation story of the Bible to the Big Bang theory. As Patrick J. Buchanan points out in his Churchill, Hitler, and the Unnecessary War, World War II was merely a continuation of World War I, the latter making the former nearly inevitable. And the results of the second conflagration embroiled us in half a century of conflict. As Pat put it in his newspaper column:

    “They went to war for Poland, but Winston Churchill abandoned Poland to Stalin. Defeated in Norway, France, Greece, Crete and the western desert, they endured until America came in and joined in the liberation of Western Europe.

     

    “Yet, at war’s end in 1945, Britain was bled and bankrupt, and the great cause of Churchill’s life, preserving his beloved empire, was lost. Because of the ‘Good War,’ Britain would never be great again.

     

    “And were the means used by the Allies, the terror bombing of Japanese and German cities, killing hundreds of thousands of women and children, perhaps millions, the marks of a ‘good war’?

     

    “[Washington Post columnist Richard] Cohen contends that the evil of the Holocaust makes it a ‘good war.’ But the destruction of the Jews of Europe was a consequence of this war, not a cause. As for the Japanese atrocities like the Rape of Nanking, they were indeed horrific.

     

    “But America’s smashing of Japan led not to freedom for China, but four years of civil war followed by 30 years of Maoist madness in which 30 million Chinese perished.”

    We are now in the midst of yet another global struggle, the “war on terrorism,” which has decimated the Middle East, exhausted the US military, driven us to the edge of bankruptcy, and led to nothing but horror and blowback on a scale not even anti-interventionist critics of the decision to enter it imagined.

    For Trump to raise the banner of America First in this context challenges so many political and financial interests, so many of the underlying assumptions of US foreign policy since the end of World War II, that the vicious assault on his politics and his character is entirely explicable. Like his predecessors in the America First movement – who weren’t “Nazi sympathizers,” as the smear artist Dunn avers, but ordinary Americans who wanted to simply live in peace – Trump wants a Fortress America that will keep the country safe behind two oceans and a renewed vigilance without going abroad in search of monsters of destroy.

    He wants out of NATO, out of South Korea and Japan, out of harm’s way for American military personnel – all too many of whom have come back either in body bags or horribly maimed, only to be treated like unworthy supplicants by a heartless bureaucracy and left to sit on street corners begging for change.

    The America Firsters became “obsolete,” USA Today informs us, “But they never went away.”

    Of course we didn’t. That’s because ordinary Americans – as opposed to the foreign lobbyists, the arms contractors, and the laptop bombardiers in their Washington “thinktanks” – have always been reluctant to go crusading overseas. The 9/11 attacks induced a fit of madness that made them forget their common sense objections to trying to make alien cultures into Arabic versions of Kansas, but that soon wore off as the costs – in troops and treasure – added up. And as their own country began to disintegrate, both physically and culturally, while George W Bush was busily engaged in “nation-building” in Afghanistan, Americans began to ask: is it worth it?

    Today the answer to that question is clearly a firm negative – except, of course, in the precincts of power on the Potomac.

    Of all the “experts” hauled out to attack Trump and his “America First” foreign policy, my favorite is left-wing dingbat and “historian” Adam Hochschild, a co-founder of Mother Jones magazine, who blithers that we’re too “deeply enmeshed” to put our own interests first:

    “Trump can no more successfully pretend we’re not involved than isolationists of the 1930s could. How can we put ‘America First’ as far as climate change is concerned? Trump does not have the power to make rising ocean waters lap only at other countries’ shores.”

    This is what the globalists are reduced to, now that the neoconservative version of internationalism is out of style: we have to keep policing the world because the seas are rising!

    One good thing about climate change is that, as the oceans rise, they’ll engulf coastal areas such as the Bay Area, where dingbat Hochschild resides, and he’ll be forced to “enmesh” himself in Middle America – Trump Country – where normal Americans live. Although perhaps he’ll prefer to go under, along with the rest of the die-hard arugula-consuming Trump-hating elites….

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Today’s News 16th April 2016

  • One Reader Tried To Get The Recording Of Yellen's "World-Saving Phone Call"; This Is What The Fed Replied

    Two weeks ago we showed something striking: while combing through Janet Yellen’s recently disclosed daily diary, we noticed that on February 11 and 12, the Fed chair held two critical phone calls, one with BOE governor Marc Carney and the next day, with BOE president Mario Draghi.

     

    But what was especially shocking, and the reason why we dubbed them “the phone calls that saved the world“, is that the first call took place quite literally the very hour that the market hit its 2016 lows.

     

    Zoomed out:

     

    We asked if thanks to Yellen’s diary we got “the closest glimpse of Keyser Soze the global Plunge Protection Team communication by phone call?” before concluding that “only the NSA knows.”

    This was not enough for one of our readers who decided to find out more and as a result, he sent a FOIA request to the Fed on the day of the post, in which he requested the audio file or any documentation of the nature of the telephone call between Yellen and Carney and, subsequently, Draghi.

    The Fed’s response: a resounding “no”, for the following reason: “the responsive document contains nonpublic commercial or financial information” and while “the document containing the exempt information was reviewed… no reasonably segregable nonexempt information was found.”

    Case closed.

      Of course, if the phone contains the information many suspect it does, then the Fed is probably wondering why is someone so naive as to ask how the sausage is made when they can just BTFD and live happily ever after.

    More seriously, when the Fed parades around with its “transparency” it clearly has this in mind.

     

    But when it comes to truly important things like the content of a phone call that may very well have prevented the market from collapsing, well you better work at Goldman Sachs to get that particular confidential Fed data

  • The Fed Sends A Frightening Letter To JPMorgan, Corporate Media Yawns

    Submitted by Pam Martens and Russ Martens via WallStreetOnParade.com,

    Yesterday the Federal Reserve released a 19-page letter that it and the FDIC had issued to Jamie Dimon, the Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, on April 12 as a result of its failure to present a credible plan for winding itself down if the bank failed. The letter carried frightening passages and large blocks of redacted material in critical areas, instilling in any careful reader a sense of panic about the U.S. financial system.

    A rational observer of Wall Street’s serial hubris might have expected some key segments of this letter to make it into the business press. A mere eight years ago the United States experienced a complete meltdown of its financial system, leading to the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression. President Obama and regulators have been assuring us over these intervening eight years that things are under control as a result of the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation. But according to the letter the Fed and FDIC issued on April 12 to JPMorgan Chase, the country’s largest bank with over $2 trillion in assets and $51 trillion in notional amounts of derivatives, things are decidedly not under control.

    At the top of page 11, the Federal regulators reveal that they have “identified a deficiency” in JPMorgan’s wind-down plan which if not properly addressed could “pose serious adverse effects to the financial stability of the United States.” Why didn’t JPMorgan’s Board of Directors or its legions of lawyers catch this?

    It’s important to parse the phrasing of that sentence. The Federal regulators didn’t say JPMorgan could pose a threat to its shareholders or Wall Street or the markets. It said the potential threat was to “the financial stability of the United States.”

    That statement should strike fear into even the likes of presidential candidate Hillary Clinton who has been tilting at the shadows in shadow banks while buying into the Paul Krugman nonsense that “Dodd-Frank Financial Reform Is Working” when it comes to the behemoth banks on Wall Street.

    How could one bank, even one as big and global as JPMorgan Chase, bring down the whole financial stability of the United States? Because, as the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Financial Research (OFR) has explained in detail and plotted in pictures (see below), five big banks in the U.S. have high contagion risk to each other. Which bank poses the highest contagion risk? JPMorgan Chase.

    The OFR study was authored by Meraj Allahrakha, Paul Glasserman, and H. Peyton Young, who found the following:

    “…the default of a bank with a higher connectivity index would have a greater impact on the rest of the banking system because its shortfall would spill over onto other financial institutions, creating a cascade that could lead to further defaults. High leverage, measured as the ratio of total assets to Tier 1 capital, tends to be associated with high financial connectivity and many of the largest institutions are high on both dimensions…The larger the bank, the greater the potential spillover if it defaults; the higher its leverage, the more prone it is to default under stress; and the greater its connectivity index, the greater is the share of the default that cascades onto the banking system. The product of these three factors provides an overall measure of the contagion risk that the bank poses for the financial system.”

    The Federal Reserve and FDIC are clearly fingering their worry beads over the issue of “liquidity” in the next Wall Street crisis. That obviously has something to do with the fact that the Fed has received scathing rebuke from the public for secretly funneling over $13 trillion in cumulative, below-market-rate loans, often at one-half percent or less, to the big U.S. and foreign banks during the 2007-2010 crisis. The two regulators released background documents yesterday as part of flunking the wind-down plans (living wills) of five major Wall Street banks. (In addition to JPMorgan Chase, plans were rejected at Wells Fargo, Bank of America, State Street and Bank of New York Mellon.) One paragraph in the Resolution Plan Assessment Framework and Firm Determinations (2016) used the word “liquidity” 11 times:

    “Firms must be able to reliably estimate and meet their liquidity needs prior to, and in, resolution. In this regard, firms must be able to track and measure their liquidity sources and uses at all material entities under normal and stressed conditions. They must also conduct liquidity stress tests that appropriately capture the effect of stresses and impediments to the movement of funds. Holding liquidity in a manner that allows the firm to quickly respond to demands from stakeholders and counterparties, including regulatory authorities in other jurisdictions and financial market utilities, is critical to the execution of the plan. Maintaining sufficient and appropriately positioned liquidity also allows the subsidiaries to continue to operate while the firm is being resolved. In assessing the firms’ plans with regard to liquidity, the agencies evaluated whether the companies were able to appropriately forecast the size and location of liquidity needed to execute their resolution plans and whether those forecasts were incorporated into the firms’ day-to-day liquidity decision making processes. The agencies also reviewed the current size and positioning of the firms’ liquidity resources to assess their adequacy relative to the estimated liquidity needed in resolution under the firm’s scenario and strategy. Further, the agencies evaluated whether the firms had linked their process for determining when to file for bankruptcy to the estimate of liquidity needed to execute their preferred resolution strategy.”

    Apparently, the Federal regulators believe JPMorgan Chase has a problem with the “location,” “size and positioning” of its liquidity under its current plan. The April 12 letter to JPMorgan Chase addressed that issue as follows:

    “JPMC does not have an appropriate model and process for estimating and maintaining sufficient liquidity at, or readily available to, material entities in resolution…JPMC’s liquidity profile is vulnerable to adverse actions by third parties.”

    The regulators expressed the further view that JPMorgan was placing too much “reliance on funds in foreign entities that may be subject to defensive ring-fencing during a time of financial stress.” The use of the term “ring-fencing” suggests that the regulators fear that foreign jurisdictions might lay claim to the liquidity to protect their own financial counterparty interests or investors.

    JPMorgan’s sprawling derivatives portfolio that encompasses $51 trillion notional amount as of December 31, 2015 is also causing angst at the Fed and FDIC. The regulators wanted more granular detail on what would happen if JPMorgan’s counterparties refused to continue doing business with it if rating agencies cut its credit ratings. The regulators asked for a “narrative describing at least one pathway” for winding down the derivatives portfolio, taking into account a number of factors, including “the costs and challenges of obtaining timely consents from counterparties and potential acquirers (step-in banks).” The regulators wanted to see the “losses and liquidity required to support the active wind-down” of the derivatives portfolio “incorporated into estimates of the firm’s resolution capital and liquidity execution needs.” 

    According to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency’s (OCC) derivatives report as of December 31, 2015, JPMorgan Chase is only centrally clearing 37 percent of its derivatives while a whopping 63 percent of its derivatives remain in over-the-counter contracts between itself and unnamed counterparties. The Dodd-Frank reform legislation had promised the public that derivatives would all become exchange traded or centrally cleared. Indeed, on March 7 President Obama falsely stated at a press conference that when it comes to derivatives “you have clearinghouses that account for the vast majority of trades taking place.”

    But the OCC has now released four separate reports for each quarter of 2015 showing just the opposite of what the President told the press and the public on March 7. In its most recent report the OCC, the regulator of national banks, states that “In the fourth quarter of 2015, 36.9 percent of the derivatives market was centrally cleared.”

    Equally disturbing, the most dangerous area of derivatives, the credit derivatives that blew up AIG and necessitated a $185 billion taxpayer bailout, remain predominately over the counter. According to the latest OCC report, only 16.8 percent of credit derivatives are being centrally cleared. At JPMorgan Chase, more than 80 percent of its credit derivatives are still over-the-counter.

     

    Wall Street Mega Banks Are Highly Interconnected: Stock Symbols Are as Follows: C=Citigroup; MS=Morgan Stanley; JPM=JPMorgan Chase; GS=Goldman Sachs; BAC=Bank of America; WFC=Wells Fargo.

    Wall Street Mega Banks Are Highly Interconnected: Stock Symbols Are as Follows: C=Citigroup; MS=Morgan Stanley; JPM=JPMorgan Chase; GS=Goldman Sachs; BAC=Bank of America; WFC=Wells Fargo.

     

    Three of the five largest U.S. banks (JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo) have now had their wind-down plans rejected by the Federal agency insuring bank deposits (FDIC) and the Federal agency (Federal Reserve) that secretly sluiced $13 trillion in rollover loans to the insolvent or teetering banks in the last epic crisis that continues to cripple the country’s economic growth prospects. Maybe it’s time for the major newspapers of this country to start accurately reporting on the scale of today’s banking problem.

  • The Difference Between Bernie's & Hillary's Tax Plan Explained In 1 Simple Cartoon

    On the one hand…

     

     

    Source: Townhall.com

    One can't help but look at the current debacle and consider whether, just as we warned, The Cloward-Piven strategy is reaching a pivotal moment…

    In the mid-sixties at the height of the “social revolution” the line between democratic benevolence and outright communism became rather blurry. The Democratic Party, which controlled the presidency and both houses of Congress, was used as the springboard by social engineers to introduce a new era of welfare initiatives enacted in the name of “defending the poor”, also known as the “Great Society Programs”. These initiatives, however, were driven by far more subversive and extreme motivations, and have been expanded on by every presidency since, Republican and Democrat alike.

     

    At Columbia University, sociologist professors Richard Cloward and Francis Fox Piven introduced a political strategy in 1966 in an article entitled 'The Weight Of The Poor: A Strategy To End Poverty'. This article outlined a plan that they believed would eventually lead to the total transmutation of America into a full-fledged centralized welfare state (in other words, a collectivist enclave). The spearpoint of the Cloward-Piven strategy involved nothing less than economic sabotage against the U.S.

     

    Theoretically, according to the doctrine, a condition of overwhelming tension and strain could be engineered through the overloading of American welfare rolls, thereby smothering the entitlement program structure at the state and local level. The implosion of welfare benefits would facilitate a massive spike in poverty and desperation, creating a financial crisis that would lead to an even greater cycle of demand for a fully socialized system. This desperation would then “force” the federal government to concentrate all welfare programs under one roof, nationalize and enforce a socialist ideology, and ultimately, compact an immense level of power into the hands of a select few.

     

     

    The tactic can only decrease wealth security by making all citizens equally destitute. As we have seen in numerous socialist and communist experiments over the past century, economic harmonization never creates wealth or prosperity, it only siphons wealth from one area and redistributes it to others, evaporating much of it as it is squeezed through the grinding gears of the establishment machine. Socialism, in its very essence, elevates government to the role of all-pervasive parent, and casts the citizenry down into the role of dependent sniveling infant. Even in its most righteous form, Cloward-Piven seeks to make infants of us all, whether we like it or not.

    Equality through universal dependence.

  • One Man Asks Why Was Tritium Found At 9/11 Ground Zero

    Authored by Shepard Ambellas via Intellihub.com,

    Although it’s now public knowledge that former Florida Sen. Bob Graham told the Tampa Bay Times that the secret 28 pages of the 9/11 Commission report are poised to be released within the next few months, one can only question what the White House’s new and urgent motive for their release is.

    One thing comes to mind, right off the bat, and that is the fact that strong evidence exists suggesting that up to three thermonuclear devices were detonated at the World Trade Center site on 9/11, hence the nickname “Ground Zero.”

    ground zero definition

    I mean, what better way than to dupe the people yet once again by slowly conditioning them, over an extended period of time, to accept the fact that criminal factions of their very own government orchestrated the Pearl Harbor-like attack onto skyscrapers, buildings, in an American city.

    That’s right, when the not so secret 28 pages are actually released, in a few months, they will likely show Saudi involvement and government foreknowledge, like we already knew.

    So tell us something we didn’t know; like the fact that a Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Department of Energy, study found high trace levels of tritium inside the WTC complex after the attack. Not only were abnormal levels of tritium found inside the WTC complex, in the basement of “WTC 6” and the “storm sewer,” but they were also found in the water.

    tritium wtc

    Study of Traces of Tritium
    at the World Trade Center (Oct. 2002)/U.S. Department of Energy

    “Tritium is an important component in nuclear weapons. It is used to enhance the efficiency and yield of fission bombs and the fission stages of hydrogen bombs in a process known as “boosting” as well as in external neutron initiators for such weapons,” according Wikipedia; meaning that the only way it would be present in high trace levels is if a nuclear device (or three) detonated within proximity. Additionally it’s important to note that tritium is “extremely rare on Earth” and again — should not be found in at levels reported to be ’55 times higher than normal.’

    And just to be clear, I am not saying that micro nukes were solely responsible for bringing down the towers — and IMO were likely only used at the base of Towers 1 and 2 and possible the base of building 7 and were strategically placed 50 feet below street level, somewhere in the basements of the buildings or subway access tunnels. This would also explain numerous eyewitness reports of “large” explosions in the basement or “lobby” of the towers.

    It has also been proven that Nano-thermite was used and was present in dust samples, less than 2 microns in diameter, that were taken from the WTC site after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks as pointed out early on by Richard Gage of the grassroots organization Architects & Engineers for 9/11 Truth.

    Moreover there are also signs that advanced barometric bomb technology, which uses triggering devices derived from the U.S. Nuclear Weapons Program, was also deployed in the attack — technology which incorporates gaseous elements in a “yellowish, brownish combustible mixture” and uses Aluminum Silicate Red Oxide and other ingredients” that would have surrounded and permeated the air around key structural columns on all floors before being triggered by a “specific high-voltage pattern” which the element combination is responsive to.

    One bomb specialist, who wanted to remain anonymous for obvious reasons, can be seen in the proceeding video, testifying to the existence of such technology and said:

    “[The high-voltage pattern] produces sort of a stairway pattern in the molecular structure of the cloud. Part of that pattern is a hydro-dynamic power generator, energy source, permeating the cloud which is then energized with another energy source and then is detonated. This causes the cloud itself to explode in such a fashion that if the cloud is circulating around the pillar — then it crushes the pillar from all sides and turns that pillar literally to dust and leaves only the rebar behind. So if you’ve got this cloud permeating all the way around the first floor, wherever it is, anything within its path gets crushed, imploded, to dust instantaneously. And when that happens of course there is nothing left to hold up the upper floors above, so bang, they come down like a pancake.”

    This also explains why an eyewitness by the name of Kenneth Summers, who was in the lobby of tower 2 at the time, actually saw such a gas-like substance mixing with the air just a “tenth of a second” before the witness was blown back out the lobby doors. Kenneth Summers told NBC what he saw just before being eject from the lobby by a massive explosion and stated:

    “All of a sudden it seems like the whole lobby, the door I was in, filled up with a yellowish, brownish, combustible mixture. It didn’t really smell any different, but was so quick to happen, it was like a tenth of a second.”

    Summers testimony starts at 5:08 into the following video:

    Look, all I know is the actual impact from the alleged passenger planes did not cause the collapse of the WTC’s towers 1 and 2 that stood proud above the New York skyline, nor did the jet fuel fires or random fires burning throughout the buildings. In fact we can clearly see that this was not the case, because the tops of the buildings actually started to collapse first, dustifying themselves in mid-air as reported by Dr. Judy Wood who conducted an independent investigation.

    Micro-nukes exist and have for a long time

    According to Wikipedia:

    The Special Atomic Demolition Munition (SADM) was a family of man-portable nuclear weapons fielded by the US military in the 1960s, but never used in actual combat. The US Army planned to use the weapons in Europe in the event of a Soviet invasion. US Army Engineers would use the weapon to irradiate, destroy, and deny key routes of communication through limited terrain such as the Fulda Gap. Troops were trained to parachute into Soviet occupied western Europe with the SADM and destroy power plants, bridges, and dams.

     

    The project, which involved a small nuclear weapon, was designed to allow one person to parachute from any type of aircraft carrying the weapon package and place it in a harbor or other strategic location that could be accessed from the sea. Another parachutist without a weapon package would follow the first to provide support as needed.

     

    The two-person team would place the weapon package in the target location, set the timer, and swim out into the ocean where they would be retrieved by a submarine or a high-speed surface water craft.

     

    In the 1950s and 1960s, the United States developed several different types of lightweight nuclear devices. The main one was the W54, a cylinder 40 by 60 cm (about 16 by 24 inches) that weighed 68 kg (150 lbs). It was fired by a mechanical timer and had a variable yield equivalent to between 10 tons and 1 kiloton of TNT. The W54 nuclear device was used in the Davy Crockett Weapon System.

    Now do I have your undivided attention?

    On 9/11 there is no doubt that multiple bombs were detonated inside the WTC complex — this fact can not be disputed and is clearly documented in hundreds of videos and backed up by many eyewitness testimonies, including highly credible first responders and firefighters. In fact, seismic readings from that day indicate that at least 3 large man-made explosions, possibly nuclear by signature, took place underground inside the WTC complex. Could these be the actual blasts that took out the cores of buildings 1, 2 and 7? Is this what the U.S. government has been hiding all along?

    Interestingly, previous tests have been conducted by factions of the U.S. government in which they used micro-nukes to demolish rather large buildings and the results were astonishing to say the least, almost a perfect mirror of the collapse of buildings 1, 2, and 7 that took place in Sept. of 2001.

    The use of micro-nukes in the WTC complex on 9/11 – the smoking gun

    It’s safe to say that high energy releases have a distinct look.

    Dr. Ed Ward has documented what he believes is the use of micro-nukes on the World Trade Center complex attack that took place in September of 2001.

    One of the smoking guns in this case is that over 5.3 billion pounds of steel was instantly turned into 2 billion pounds of dust, but that’s not all — massive steel beams were bent like pretzels as the towers collapsed.

    One video shows the penthouse on building 7 being demolished on the roof just before the building comes down. This proves that a top-down demolition process was being utilized, otherwise the buildings might have just twisted and naturally would have just fell over themselves. But perhaps the most startling revelation that nuclear devices were used is the fact that vehicles that were found up to a half mile away from the WTC looked incinerated — not to mention the tens of thousands of tiny body parts that were found on the rooftops of neighboring buildings which is not indicative at all of a gravitational collapse.

    The fact that many of the first responders are now dead, if not very sick, does not sound like the byproduct of a falling building, but rather sounds more like they got a massive dose of deadly radiation. Most of the responders have died of blood cancer and Thyroid cancer, consistent with heavy radiation exposure.

    Other red flags include:

    • Cars not hit by falling debris yet totally destroyed far away from the towers
    • Molten metal was seen in and around the debris of the WTC for months, indicative of nuclear fission.
    • There is also the fact that the debris field was substantially low for the magnitude of buildings that were destroyed, thus signifying that most of the debris was incinerated upon the demo blast.
    • Massive craters under the WTC complex were formed, likely from the detonation of micro-nukes, as the rock was even melted smooth. Later after the site was fairly cleaned up and the craters were excavated, the city of New York Port Authority continued to wash down the cavities with hoses daily for years as traces of Tritium were found, signifying that radiation was present.

    Additionally the fact that the WTC buildings were pulverized into a fine dust cannot be ignored. This is a tell-tale sign of a high energy release typical of a nuclear explosion. Eyewitness accounts and personal testimony indicate that people were thrown an entire city block from what was described as a warm wind just as the towers begin to collapse.

    There were also multiple reports of “hanging skin” or “melted skin” on victims around ground zero. This was a common occurrence in the Hiroshima blast. Major hot spots were also reported in and around the debris at the World Trade Center complex and were prevalent for up to six months after the attacks. This type of activity, seen with the hot spots, is commonly referred to as “China Syndrome”, where nuclear material will continue to undergo fission for a period of time, generating massive heat plumes.

    To no surprise, videos obtained via Freedom of Information ACT (FOIA) requests, captured on and after Sept. 11, 2001 near the WTC site, have had sections, clips, of the video and audio removed, especially during the beginning of the collapse of the towers. However, the explosions can be heard on many independent videos, now floating around the web and can all be accounted for.

    Not to mention the hijackers, some of which have still been proven to be alive, were recruited by the CIA, as can be seen in the following video:

     

    The truth is out there.

  • Filthy Lucre

    From the Slope of Hope: When I was a boy growing up in Louisiana, our youth group at church had us do an enlightening exercise: we all fasted for a day.

    Now, not eating anything for 24 hours isn’t a huge deal. No one is going to die from hunger. But for suburban kids accustomed to eating three meals a day, plus snacks, it’s a big change, and having access to only water quickly gave us a small sliver of empathy about what it would be like to actually not have a choice about being hungry.

    When we met at the church the following night, we had all been fasting 24 hours. At that point, the minister picked about six kids at random, had them walk up to the stage, and he gave each of them a McDonald’s bag with a meal inside of it. They joyfully ate their meal, while all the rest of us watched on with true envy. It was the first time I knew what it was like to be jealous of someone who had something to eat when I was hungry. That is a memory that has stuck with me my entire life.

    I will now tell you another story from the past to lead in to my general point.

    Although I will not go into details, the family I married into was once one of the wealthiest in China. In the first part of the 20th century, the old man made a staggering fortune, and he enjoyed one of the privileges of wealth at the time, which was multiple wives. He had many, many children, and he had vast financial holdings.

    Once the Communists seized power, all of that wealth disappeared. The descendants scattered to various parts of the world. China, of course, had varying degrees of passion about its communist ethos, and during the late 1960s anyone who wasn’t basically an uneducated peasant was subjected to terrible abuse.

    China today, of course, has a somewhat similar situation as Russia: that is, a formerly Communist state whose deeply corrupt culture now masquerades as a quasi-capitalist society, 0415-cunthaving sold off former state assets to businesspeople who were required to line the pockets of those in a position of power to hand over those assets in the first place. In my opinion, anyone rich from Russia or China has almost certainly garnered their fortune through corrupt means, and one glance at the air or water of Beijing will tell you just how much the businessmen care about the environment or the people who have to wallow around in it.

    The offspring of these crooks strike me as especially vile, not only because their wealth is ill-gotten, but they didn’t even have the industrious character to steal it in the first place. They simply have access to it as an accident of birth. And, of course, given the voyeuristic society we inhabit, they’ve run off and made a television show:

    Because of my deep love for Slope, I held my stomach and actually watched the above. I was reminded of a term that I heard on occasion in the deep south where I grew up. Forgive me as I type the term out bluntly, but we’re all adults here: “nigger rich.” Now, to my ears, this actually has nothing to do with race. It has to do with a person who happens to have access to money, but they have absolutely no class. The aforementioned term suggests a person who needs to be flashy, garish, and flaunty, but lacks substance. It’s an offensive term, I admit, but it really has nothing to do with skin color. It has to do with attitude.

    Watching the girls in the video, who seem to be pretty much in their early 20s, the politically incorrect term I’ve mentioned fits them to a “T”. This garrulous group of tittering twats strikes me as vain, insipid, and supremely dull. Very early on in the program, they order an expensive red wine, which these nitwits drink with straws. A biblical phrase leaps to mind: pearls before swine.

    I’ve written about money many times before, and I have no problem with someone having millions or billions of dollars. However, if they didn’t either (a) earn it through their own honest efforts or (b) inherit it and apply themselves to use the assets in a creative, positive way, then they have none of my respect. As a youngster, I couldn’t understand why the Communists would want to kill the rich. Now, I am beginning to understand.

    If, in years to come, the majority of Chinese people begin to genuinely suffer, you can be assured they’re going to want to chop girls like this into the “Wagyu Beef” which one of them describes herself as being.

    As for my own reaction, it obviously doesn’t matter to me one way or another if these girls live or die. I have pondered, however, what it is I find unsettling about their very existence. As is so often the case, Mr. Spock provides the answer I need. Here I quote him from Squire of Gothos, in which he responds to Trelane, who is wondering why Spock doesn’t like him:

    I object to you. I object to intellect without discipline; I object to power without constructive purpose.

    Right as always, Spock. These tasteless, witless leeches will have a life of existential despair if, in their later years, they actually take a good, hard look at themselves. In the meantime, there are plenty of vendors and service providers who will be perfectly happy to distract them with Lamborghinis, Gucci handbags, and countless other knickknacks from the Western world, just to keep their collective minds off of how utterly pointless their lives are.

  • What Happens Next (In Europe)?

    A year ago today, European equities hit their highest levels ever. But, as Bloomberg reports, the euphoria about Mario Draghi’s stimulus program didn’t last, and trader skepticism is now rampant. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index has lost 17% since its record, and investors who piled in last year are now unwinding bets at the fastest rate since 2013 as analysts predict an earnings contraction. The trading pattern looks familiar: a fast run to just over 400 on the gauge, then disaster…

     

     

    To Benedict Goette of Crossbow Partners, the odds of another crisis are higher than a rally to fresh records.

    “The 2009-2015 rally originated from two main drivers: a massive stimulus, and credit expansion in China,” said Goette, who’s a partner at his firm in Zug, Switzerland and helps oversee 1 billion Swiss francs ($1 billion).

     

    “European earnings have not followed suit so far. Skepticism regarding central-bank operations has started to emerge.”

    Bloomberg notes that investors have withdrawn money from funds tracking the region’s equities for nine straight weeks, the longest streak since May 2013, according to a Bank of America Corp. note dated April 7 that cited EPFR Global data.

  • Investigating Deutsche Bank’s €21 Trillion Derivative Casino In Wake Of Admission It Rigged Gold And Silver

    Submitted by Mike “Mish” Shedlock

    Deutsche Bank Admits Rigging, Will Expose Other Riggers

    Deutsche Bank has admitted it rigged both the Gold market and the Silver market. ZeroHedge has the details in his report Deutsche Bank Agrees To Expose Other Manipulators.

    Many asked me to comment. I am shocked?

    No. In the wake of admissions of rigged LIBOR and rigged Euribor (bank to bank interest rates in dollars and euros respectively), one would really have to wonder “What isn’t rigged?”

    To the Moon, Alice?

    While some think gold would have “gone to the moon” without this rigging, I wonder if it got as high as $1900 an ounce because of rigging.

    The same applies to silver when it topped over $40.

    It’s logical to believe riggers don’t much care about the direction as long as they make money. Hopefully we get more details from Deutsche Bank soon.

    This could get interesting.

    What Isn’t Rigged?

    While pondering the above question, let’s dive into Deutsche Bank’s 2015 Annual Report to investigate other bid-rigging opportunities.

    Consolidated Balance Sheet

    Deutsche Bank has over €515 billion in “positive derivative values” in comparison to €496 billion in “negative derivative values”.

    Hooray! Deutsche Bank is about €20 billion to the good. But how much was bet?

    Deutsche Bank’s Derivatives Casino

    The total size of Deutsche Bank’s derivatives casino is €21.39 trillion, notional.

    Casino Breakdown

    • Interest Rate: €15.41 trillion
    • Currency Related: €4.78 trillion
    • Equity Index: €0.90 trillion
    • Credit Related: €0.27 trillion
    • Commodity Related: €0.08 trillion


    How Much Risk on €21.39 Trillion?

    Inquiring minds may be asking: How much risk is there on €21.39 trillion?

    Perhaps surprising little. After all, interest rate risk could easily be controlled with a few timely phone calls from the Fed and ECB.

    What risk isn’t controlled that way can always be controlled other ways (as we have seen).

    I am pleased to note Deutsche Bank uses “central counterparty clearing services for OTC clearing” and the bank “benefits from the credit risk mitigation achieved through the central counterparty’s settlement system.”

    “Margin requirements for uncleared OTC derivative transactions are expected to be phased in from September 2016.”

    Whew!

    And we can all count on the obvious fact that Dodd-Frank reform has fixed everything.

    So, nothing can possibly go wrong with €21.39 trillion in casino bets, just as €20 billion in profits (.0935%) shows.

     

  • These Are The 10 Worst (And Best) Jobs In America

    A new survey of the best and worst jobs in the country has declared that being a newspaper reporter (blogger may or may not fall under the umbrella) is the worst career you could be pursuing.

    Careercast.com has released their annual job rankings, where they rank 200 jobs from best to worst. At the very bottom, The survey put the annual median salary of a print reporter at $37,200.

    Not surprisingly for an industry in its twilight days, it is the third year in a row that a newspaper reporter ranked as the worst job.  Being a broadcaster didn’t fare much better.  It came in third worst on the list.

    “The news business has changed drastically over the years, and not in a good way,” former Broadcaster Ann Baldwin, president of Baldwin Media PR in New Britain, Connecticut told Fox5NY. “When people ask me if I miss it, I tell them ‘I feel as if I jumped off of a sinking ship.’”

    The report says that one factor that has many media jobs among the worst is the decline of advertising revenue. And, a drop in advertising sales translates to a decline in positions for advertising sales people. Advertising Sales Person appears on the 10 worst jobs list for the first time (#193), after finishing just outside the bottom 10 a year ago.

    As for the best job of the year, that went to data scientists.  The survey cited a strong growth outlook and an annual median salary of $128,240. If you are lucky enough to find them, the top jobs will be in Information Technology, Healthcare, and Mathematics.

    It was not immediately clear where the most rapidly growing job category in the “new normal” American recovery, those of waiters and bartenders, fell within this list.

    Here is the summary of the 5 best and worst jobs:

    And here is the detailed breakdown of the 10 best and 10 worst in the U.S. right now.

    First, the top 10 best jobs according to the Careercast rankings:

     

    And here are the top 10 worst jobs. We’ll begin with the worst according to Careercast, which happens to be a newspaper reporter. As noted above, blogger – especially, and ironically, one chronicling the failure of a broken socio-economic system – may or may not fall into this umbrella definition. 





  • The Scourge Of Socialism

    Authored by StraightLineLogic's Robert Gore, via The Burning Platform blog,

    Every socialist is a disguised dictator
    Ludwig von Mises, Human Action

    Human progress has been three steps forward, two steps back. That a non-fringe candidate of a major political party in the United States can call himself a socialist constitutes a leap backward. That it can happen after a century of socialistic horrors: impoverishment, ruination, tyranny, war, and tens of millions dead, bespeaks not just deadly ignorance and delusion, but depravity.

    Socialism is a political system whereby the state owns or controls the means of production for goods and services. It can be partial—government control of some industries, or total—government control of all industries. According to Marx, who advocated the total version, the goods and services would be produced by each according to his or her ability, and distributed according to each individual’s need: production severed from distribution. No particular acuity is necessary to see the fatal flaw. The “needy”—and those who garner political power by distributing goods and services to them—are all for this system, but what’s in it for the able? They have to be coerced to produce, and something has to be done with those who object or refuse to submit.

    Coercion sounds like slavery and that something has to be done sounds like repression. That is what socialism has produced—slavery, concentration camps, and slaughter—on a scale unimaginable prior to the twentieth century. Once you reach 10 million killed you’ve plumbed the depths of evil. Additional deca-millions are redundant blood on your hands, but the Titans in the Socialist pantheon—Lenin, Stalin, and Mao—killed around 100 million between them, while lesser lights like Pol Pot and the Kim dynasty in North Korea killed single digit millions. The numbers are exclusive of war dead.

     

    What about Adolf Hitler? The full name of his political party was Nationalsocialistiche Deutsche Arbeiterpartei, or Nationalist Socialist German Workers’ Party, which sounds like a group of socialists. However, modern socialists try to distance themselves from Hitler by arguing that the Nazis allowed private ownership of the means of production, were supported by wealthy German industrialists and bankers (wealthy Brits and Americans, too), persecuted Communists, and fought the Soviet Union. Once the Nazis assumed full control, especially after Germany began waging war, the owners of businesses had to comply with their directives or else. Under the circumstances, full government ownership of the means of production versus full government control that allowed nominal private ownership was a distinction without a difference. However, to give today’s socialists their best case, exclude Hitler’s deca-millions from the tally.

    The case the socialists aren’t allowed is the one they always make: comparing purely hypothetical, daydream, visionary socialism with real life socio-economic-political systems. Either fantasy socialism gets measured against fantasy capitalism or fantasy welfare-statism or some other fantasy, an obvious waste of time, or the real life socialism gets measured against other real life systems. SLL is partial to capitalism, so let’s take as real life capitalism the closest the world has ever come to laissez-faire: Industrial Revolution America from 1865 to 1913. It is indisputable that the Industrial Revolution produced the greatest economic growth and rise in living standards, as measured by per capita income (which was not subject to an income tax—Happy Tax Day!), in America’s history. It also produced the biggest scientific and technological explosion in human history. It is true that millions worked for very low wages while others made vast fortunes—income inequality. However, jobs were plentiful and upward mobility the norm.

    Whatever its flaws, there was no deca-million body count in Industrial Revolution America. A telling detail: millions of immigrants came to America to be “exploited” (they didn’t come for the government benefits; there were none), and laws were passed to restrict immigration, while real life socialist countries built walls and otherwise made it difficult and dangerous to try to leave their workers’ paradises. Many have died trying.

    The coercive foundation of socialism leads to slavery and slaughter. Capitalism is an economic system in which the means of production of good and services are privately owned, characterized by voluntary exchange and the state’s protection of contract and property rights. It is the economics of freedom. That conceptual foundation leads to progress and prosperity.

    In a political order where individuals and groups cannot forcibly or fraudulently take what others have produced, capitalism will be the natural evolution. If you can’t take, you must produce and exchange. You own the ultimate means of production—your talents, aptitudes, training, experience, ingenuity, capacity for work, and intelligence—and if you want something you haven’t produced, you must exchange for it with someone else on mutually advantageous and agreeable terms. Capitalism’s extraordinary results when it has been given anything approaching full reign are unsurprising. Humans accomplish extraordinary deeds…when they are free to do so.

    Modern education has for the most part abandoned teaching history, facts, or concepts, replacing them with toxic goo. The zombie minds at colleges and universities (both students and professors) fail or refuse to grasp the conceptual and ethical distinctions between capitalism and socialism. They are unaware of, indifferent to, or deny the yawning chasm between Industrial Revolution America and the twentieth century’s socialist horror shows.

    What they do know is that avuncular Bernie Sanders is promising free university education and lots of other free stuff, paid for by someone else, just like in those European welfare states, which by the way, is what they really mean by socialism, or to use the popular euphemistic moniker, “democratic socialism.” And they intend to be either the “needy,” or better yet, running the government that “cares” for the needy. Only fools raise their hands when the call goes out for the able to pull the load, although someone has to.

    Welfare states are on a fiscally and demographically unsustainable course, de facto bankrupt. You do run out of other people’s money to spend, especially when the load-pullers get tired of working for you. Welfare states are unstable ideological halfway houses between capitalism and socialism, inexorably sliding towards the latter.

    Banking offers an example. Banks have been both captured and have captured governments, and when they run into trouble they become wards of the state and its taxpayers. Modern banking is more socialist than not, yet Sanders’ critique condemns it as capitalism. The problems of banking—regulatory capture, cronyism, excessive leverage and concentration, borrowing at preferential, below market rates, too big to fail, and taxpayer-backed speculation—flow directly from banks’ involvement with the government. Yet Sanders’ reforms entails more government. Real reform would go the opposite direction: elimination of the Federal Reserve, too big to fail, and deposit insurance.

    It’s easy to be the great guy in the bar when you’re buying rounds on someone else’s dime.

    Uncle Bernie is peddling poison and calling it craft brew. If you encounter someone who’s feeling the Bern, listen patiently as they wax enthusiastic about the coming socialist utopia…if only we’ll all wise up and elect him. When they’re done, offer to buy them a one-way plane ticket to North Korea, Cuba, or Venezuela, but only if they’ll stay there for a year. That, of course, is not what they have in mind, and those nations are not, of course, the intended models for the United States. Intentions, of course, don’t mean squat. You shall know socialism by its dark deeds. Nothing would be more gratifying than seeing its proponents discover darkness the hard way. Unless, of course, they take the rest of us with them.

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Today’s News 15th April 2016

  • Wee Willie Winkle

    From the Slope of Hope: Most of you are probably acquainted with the Internet-based real estate web site known as Zillow, which is a public company under the ticker symbol Z. They haven’t been public that long, and although they aren’t doing as badly as some IPOs (Lending Club – symbol LC – leaps to mind), they aren’t exactly setting the world on fire either.

    0414-z

    What you may not know is that Realtor.com (or, more specifically, the parent company called Move) is suing Zillow and two former executives for nearly two billion bucks for stealing trade secrets. One interesting aspect of the case is how much active and aggressive deletion there appears to have been just prior to the lawsuit being filed by the two executives; one snippet I saw read…….

    0414-deleted

    Seems kind of intentional, at least from reading the above, doesn’t it? I mean, I’m not that acquainted with the case, but when I read something like that, I draw my own conclusions.

    One would assume that with this kind of evidence, the two chaps being accused would be a little short of plausible excuses. But – nope! – there’s one handy, and boy, is it a doozy:

    0414-porn

    Multiple computers. Smartphones. Thousands of emails. Text messages. Special programs to wipe out data. Wow, that must have been some really amazing porn!

    0414-heh

    Of course, a man using a computer on the Internet to look at porn is totally weird and freaky. I mean, what kind of sicko does that kind of thing? And if he did, I don’t blame him for wanting to hide it! What a weirdo! Oh, wait a second……….

    0414-everyone

    More than Netflix. More than Amazon. Oh, and there’s this:

    0414-seventy

    Suffice it to say, if you’re trying to duck a nearly $2 billion lawsuit, declaring that you were ashamed to be watching porn on the web (thus compelling you to go absolutely hog-wild deleting every morsel of data under the sun) is pretty damned amusing.

  • The IMF’s Special Drawing Rights, the RMB and gold

    The IMF’s Special Drawing Rights, the RMB and gold 

     

    The full article with additional charts and tables is published
    on GoldMoney.com can be downloaded
    here
    .

     

    On April 1, 2016, China’s central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan announced that the Chinese government will take actions to promote the use of SDRs in its do-mestic economy. The announcement was made at the end of a meeting of the G20 in Paris, which is hosted by China this year. China will start to use both the USD and SDRs when reporting its foreign reserves. In addition, the country will also consider issuing bonds denominated in SDRs. This comes five month after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) decided to include the Chinese Renminbi as a fifth currency to the basket of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) along with the U.S. dollar, the Euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound. The change takes effect on October 1, 2016. This marks the first major change of the constituents of the basket since 1981 when the IMF dropped 11 out of 16 currencies in the orig-inal basket. However, when the SDR was introduced in 1969, it was not based on a basket of currencies but linked to gold, 0.888671 grams to be precise, which, at the time, equaled exactly 1 US dollar. The SDR basket based on the original weighting of 16 currencies declined around 87.7% in value vs gold until today. Similarly, the basket introduced in 1978 has lost 84.4%. The smaller 5 currency basket introduced in 1981 is down 55.5% and the current basket is down 77.0% since its intro-duction in 2001. 

    SDR basket performance vs gold

    Taking interest payments into account hardly changes the outcome. It is obvious today that for net holders of SDRs, breaking the link to gold had a negative impact on their reserve value. This is hardly surprising as any currency has under-performed gold over the past 10 years and any timeframe beyond that. Hence, it’s not that the currencies in the basket were Summary poorly chosen or poorly weighted, no combination would have managed to do better than gold, whether the RMB would have been part of the basket all along or not. While it is far too early to conclude that China is challenging the dollar’s dominant reserve position, RMB inclusion in the SDR will nevertheless have a profound impact on percep-tions not only of China’s growing economic power generally but monetary power specifically. But while the impact of the inclusion of the RMB should not be underestimated, it is unlikely that this will change the trend that gold outperforms any fiat currency.

  • Fed Cornered: Stocks Slump As "Everything Is Awesome" In China: GDP Meets, Rest Of Data Beats

    Heading into tonight's datagasm from China, SHCOMP tumbled and Yuan was strengthening (while money-market rates were ticking higher). Then it began… Retail Sales BEAT (+10.5% vs. +10.4% exp), Industrial Production  BEAT (+6.8% vs. +5.9% exp), Fixed Asset Investment BEAT (+10.7 vs. +10.4% exp) and last – but not least – GDP MEET (+6.7 vs. +6.7% exp) – though still the weakest since Q1 2009. The post-data reaction was initially opsitive but then faded fast as reality hit on the lack of stimulus coming.

     

    *CHINA MARCH INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT RISES 6.8% ON YEAR; EST. 5.9%

     

    *CHINA MARCH RETAIL SALES RISE 10.5% ON YEAR; EST. 10.4%

     

    *CHINA JAN.-MARCH FIXED-ASSET INVESTMENT RISES 10.7%; EST. 10.4%

     

    And finally, a mere two weeks after quarter-end, China can calculate GDP confidently and with not a hint of manipulation… lowest since Q1 2009

    Bear in mind that the 42 estimates of tonight's 'manufactured' GDP data varied from +6.3% (Barclays) to +7.2% (HFE) – a cool $100bn between most bullish and most bearish.

    The reaction all of this great news…not good…

     

    Now The Fed has a problem – solid inflation, solid wages, solid jobs, and no global turmoil – we are going to need some turmoil soon or rates are going up.

     

    Charts: Bloomberg

  • The Weirdest Possible Outcomes For The Strangest Election In U.S. History

    Submitted by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    If you are a longtime activist in the Liberty Movement then you are well aware that elections do not matter in terms of the future direction our nation takes. Presidents are puppets of international financiers, and so are most legislators. Whenever a president does attempt to go against the system, he either ends up shot by a “lone gunman,” or his office is disgraced by a conveniently-leaked scandal.

    Today, elections represent the illusion of choice; that is all. The leadership of both major parties seem different in terms of their rhetoric, but this is all cosmetic. Underneath the talk, Democrat and Republican leaders are nearly identical in their support for bigger government, more centralization, less constitutional protections, more globalism, more power to international banks and central banks, and less transparency and accountability.

    For many decades now, the choice has been between the puppet on the left hand or the puppet on the right hand. This year is proving to be a little different, at least on the face of things, to the point where elections are becoming rather surreal.

    For younger generations with limited experience participating in the world of U.S. elections, developments today might seem odd but not outlandish. For older generations of Americans a consensus seems to be forming and the concerns commonly expressed in the mainstream and on the web appear to match – 2016 is turning out to be the strangest presidential election they have ever seen.

    In my recent article “Will A Trump Presidency Really Change Anything For The Better?,” I examine Trump’s ambiguity as an individual and his lack of political history, and why this makes him a hard candidate to pin down. The fact is, Trump is enticing to the public for the most part because the public has no idea what he really stands for. We have no evidence that his rhetoric is false because he has no legislative history to contradict his claims.

    With candidates like Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, and Ted Cruz, the public is well aware of where they really stand on the issues – Clinton is hardcore globalist establishment, Ted Cruz is the same though he pretends to be opposite, and Bernie, well, Bernie is a damn socialist and his only redeeming value is that he is at least honest about it.

    The public knows what they will get with the other candidates; they do not know what they will get with Trump. Thus, Trump enjoys an incredible level of popularity because many Americans would rather gamble on the unknown than stick with the status quo.

    The very presence of a candidate like Trump alone makes election 2016 extra weird, but this is only the beginning.

    Some might argue that any change in the atmosphere of our election process at this point can only be a good thing. I would argue that the fact that the establishment is allowing their long time control mechanism to evolve into an overwhelming reality television-style circus (rather than the stiff and boringly predictable farce we are used to) suggests that Americans are being deliberately distracted from dangerous geopolitical and economic developments.

    Look at it this way; we have Trump who is an attack-dog candidate who ends up in the news every other day for something he said and who attacks a Democratic opponent with which he has in the past maintained a longtime friendship. We have a fully exposed international criminal in the form of Clinton, who has been under investigation and should be prosecuted. We have a full-blown socialist named Bernie whose supporters make up a majority of the crazed social justice and cultural Marxist crowd. And we have Cruz, a “pro-constitution” anti-bank candidate with ties to those same banks and ties to an anti-sovereignty think tank (The Council on Foreign Relations).

    Some Republicans accuse Trump of being an agent for the Clinton camp. Some Democrats accuse Sanders of being an agent for the Republicans. Hillary barks like a dog at her own campaign events. Sanders supporters start fights at Trump rallies and then get their asses beat because cultural Marxists are abject weaklings. Cruz gets accused of repeated adultery while some idiot thinks that posting naked pictures of Trumps wife will actually hurt his campaign rather than help it.

    This whole situation feels like a soap opera gone terribly awry. How could one NOT be distracted?

    In the meantime, we have a global economy returning to extreme volatility after years of central bank manipulation which has failed to accomplish anything except make the rich and powerful more rich and powerful. We have potential geopolitical hot spots in Syria, Ukraine and the South China Sea which continue to present possible triggers for global conflict. We have internationally organized terrorist supervillains in the form of ISIS, the same Islamic extremists that Western covert intelligence agencies trained and funded to destabilize the Middle East now attacking multiple countries in the West. And, we have Eastern and Western banks working closely with the International Monetary Fund and the Bank for International Settlements while pretending to be at odds with each other.

    Any of the above factors could set catastrophes in motion that could change the world for a hundred years or more, and yet we are fed a steady diet of campaign mega-drama.

    As stated earlier, elections in the U.S. do not decide the future of our nation, but they do in many ways reflect the level of insanity that our collective society has reached, and, they also can reflect the direction in which the establishment hopes to send us.

    I believe it is very possible, considering the already erratic nature of the elections so far, that we might end up with unexpected developments and outcomes designed to further mesmerize the masses. Here are just a few of those potential events.

    A Three Or Four-Way Race

     

    Trump has suggested in the past that he might run as an independent candidate in the event that the Republican Party uses a brokered convention to remove him from the race. I am not convinced that the entire Trump vs. Republican Establishment situation is not a contrived Kabuki theater. That said, the general argument would be that a Trump independent run would “guarantee” a Democratic win.

     

    Again, I believe the winner of the election is already predetermined, but assuming for a moment this is not the case, the Democrats have the same problem as the Republicans. Bernie Sanders has said months ago that he was not interested in running under a third party if Clinton gets the nomination, but his supporters continue to call for him to do so, and, many of those polled have stated that they would refuse to vote for Clinton if Sanders loses the nomination.

     

    This presents a potentially frenetic final election filled with utter chaos; a three- or four-way “competition” in which there is no clear leader; a funny prospect for those of us who are tired of the election con game, but pretty disturbing to everyone else.

     

    Delegates Choose A Candidate That Does Not Represent Public Wishes

     

    Contentions are increasing over the existence of “super delegates” in the Democratic Party which have the power to override party majority sentiment towards a particular candidate. Many of these super delegates are actually top ranking members and officials of the Democratic Party, and can vote for any candidate they wish rather than following a “pledge” to vote at the convention for the candidate that the democratic constituency wants.

     

    While the Republican establishment tends to use convention “rule changes” as a fail-safe to prevent a grassroots candidate from achieving an upset in the nomination (as they did with Ron Paul), the Democrats use the super delegates as a fail-safe for the same purpose. It is very possible that Bernie Sanders could receive the widest popular support among Democrat voters but still lose the nomination to Clinton through the super delegates.

     

    Convention-Inspired Conflict And Riots

     

    Given the already seething angst between supporters of Trump, Cruz, Sanders and Clinton, any railroading of a candidate at the conventions, whether real or fabricated for effect, could very well result in internal violence spilling into open riots. Some candidates, including Trump, have suggested this will be the ultimate outcome. I tend to agree. The divisions between Americans are so pronounced now that I would be shocked if people did not react emotionally to a brokered or stolen convention. This would also be a fantastic method to continue the distraction of the public away from greater problems.

     

    A Surprise Combined Ticket

     

    This scenario had not struck me as realistic until last week; I'm not sure why (perhaps it is too strange), but it is certainly plausible.  The idea that Trump and Cruz or Clinton and Sanders might actually combine forces at a brokered convention might sound ridiculous today, but keep in mind that most elections are nothing more than theater, and this includes fake rivalries.  Beyond this, the argument could be made on either side that the only way to "win" is to unite the divided Democrats or divided Republicans through a truce.  I can hear the sound bites now – "People, in the end we are all (Democrats/Republicans), and we must stop the divisiveness for the good of the party.  It is time to focus on the real enemy; the (Democrats/Republicans)…"

     

    Such a scenario could stave off rioting and inner-party chaos, but the final election results would still be a guaranteed explosion of tensions.

     

    Widespread Election Fraud On Both Sides

     

    Yes, there is already widespread election fraud in the U.S. every two to four years. However, what I am referring to is election fraud which takes a mainstream stage and which makes even the most oblivious Americans question the validity of the process. I am talking about the mainstream media deliberately pushing the meme of election fraud to help the establishment conjure the environment of instability they obviously want. I am talking about the complete unraveling of the American presidential race.

     

    A Postponed Election

     

    In the event of stolen conventions, election fraud or rioting, the election itself could very well be postponed. Congress does have the authority to pass a law postponing federal elections due to emergencies or “extenuating circumstances”, and, they also have the ability to transfer that authority to the executive branch.

     

    Keep in mind, this could also take place in the event of a national crisis outside of the election process. An economic collapse, large scale terrorist attacks, or general social breakdown could result in a postponed election. Though this is an incredibly unlikely scenario, with the way 2016 has been going I would not rule anything out.  Also take note that such a scenario would result in a prolonged Obama White House and of course the inevitable outcome mentioned below…

     

    Civil War

     

    I have said it before and I’ll say it again, if Hillary Clinton is chosen by the establishment to take Obama’s place, the result would probably be outright civil war in the U.S. The level of hatred among conservatives for that woman is so stratospheric I cannot see any other outcome.  It might not happen immediately, but a solid bet would be conflagration within her first term.

     

    With a Trump win, I could also see at the very least nationwide riots similar in tone to those that occurred in Ferguson, Missouri, with the social justice cultists running wild with their goofy slogans and molotov cocktails. These people are a paper tiger however, and are only a threat if they manage to convince a majority of the ethnic American population to follow their lead.

     

    The greater danger is if Trump is actually an agent for the establishment rather than anti-establishment. If Trump responds to rioting using unconstitutional measures or exploits the crisis to overstep the bounds of federal power, at that point we will know exactly who he works for. Again, with Trump, everything is a gamble and we won’t know until we know.

    Some of the above theoretical scenarios might sound outlandish, but then again, if you traveled back in time a decade ago and tried to explain what the conditions of elections would be in 2016, I doubt anyone would believe you.

    I continue to hold to the premise that the elections have entered the world of the weird because America itself is on the edge of something that will shake its very core. What that event will be is hard to say because there are so many possibilities, but tensions of this caliber usually escalate to crisis before they deescalate, and tensions today are surely escalating.

    It is clear that we are in for a roller-coaster ride in the next year, so prepare accordingly, but also keep in mind that elections in themselves do not represent threats or solutions to threats. You and I, the awake and aware, are the solution to the threats facing this country. The elections only serve as a gauge for how close to the bottom of the abyss we actually are.

  • Why Young Arabs Are Joining The Islamic State

    And that is why we said this was the scariest chart in the world for these reasons!

     

    A recent poll has found that young Arabs across the Middle East reject the so-called Islamic State and believe it will not succeed in creating a caliphate. Entitled “The 2016 Arab Youth Survey”, it also found several reasons why younger Arabs think people are attracted to the terrorist group. A chronic job shortage in the region is one of the primary reasons, far ahead the presence of Western troops in the Middle East.

  • Live Feed Of New York's Democrat Debate… And More Bad News For Hillary

    As Hillary and Bernie launch this evening’s “critical”, according to CNN, debate in Brooklyn, the tide has shifted somewhat for both candidates and especially for Hillary the news is not good. According to newly released favorability ratings from Gallup, Hillary’s image is at an all time low.

    Back in November, when Bernie Sanders was still quite an unknown to most mainstream voters, Hillary’s favorable ratings among Democrats was +63. Today, that net favorable is just +36 (66% giving her favorable rating, and 30% gave her an unfavorable rating). Conversely, Bernie Sanders has a net favorable rating of 52, down slightly from recent April highs, but up from his November rating of just 42.

    And in even worse news for Hillary, the latest Fox News poll shows Clinton’s national lead imploding and after having a comfortable 13 point, 55 to 42 lead in March, she is effectively tied with the socialist, as her lead just one month later tumbles to only 2 points, a 48%-46% split, which falls within the margin of error.

     

    Hillary currently leads in the race to 2,383 delegates by a count of 1,307 to 1,087 according to the NYT, but she is reeling from losing to Sanders in eight of the last nine primaries, and is growing irritated with Bernie’s ability to keep the race interesting. The Brooklyn debate comes just days ahead of the April 19th New York primary, which contains 291 democratic delegates.

    One thing that Hillary does have going for her, at the moment at least, is that she holds a 17 point lead amongst New York’s Democratic voters in New York. New Yorker’s are seemingly forgetting that Hillary has made millions by giving speeches to Wall Street banks; “New York union members know what she did after 9/11,” said Stuart Appelbaum, president of the Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union. “She didn’t come across while she was senator here as being a cheerleader for Wall Street.”

    Given the double digit lead in the polls, and the relative bout of amnesia New Yorkers are having, it would appear that Bernie has a big uphill climb ahead of him to pull off an upset, if only in New York

     

    The Clinton camp is already stepping up the rhetoric, trying to put a greater sense of pressure on Bernie to make something happen in New York.

    “We are too late in the calendar for the Sanders campaign to successfully spin a second-place finish in New York as some kind of moral victory,” said Clinton spokesman Brian Fallon. “A loss here has the potential to be decisive in the overall nomination fight.”

    However while Clinton is almost assured of winning New York tonight, should Bernie’s surge continue, Hillary may find herself in deep trouble in the days ahead.

    Live webcast from tonight’s speech below:

  • What is Coming? Elite Feverishly Building Survival Bunkers: "Fear Of Uprising From The 99%"

    Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via SHTFPlan.com,

    personal-bunkers

    Panicked Elite Buying Bomb-Proof Luxury Survival Bunkers to Escape Civil Unrest, Disasters

    Panicked members of the elite are buying luxury bomb-proof underground survival bunkers because they fear mass civil unrest might be on the horizon.

    The company behind the construction of the sprawling complexes, Vivos, says the facilities are for the “protection of high net worth individuals” in the event of apocalyptic-style scenarios during which “millions will perish or worse yet, struggle to survive as victims”.

    “Where will you go when pandemonium strikes?” asks a promo for the luxury shelters.

    The biggest facility, called Europa One, is located in Germany and is “one of the most fortified and massive underground survival shelters on Earth, deep below a limestone mountain” and is “safely secured from the general public, behind sealed and secured walls, gates and blast doors”.

    Journalist Lynn Parramore said she also visited another site in Indiana which is a former Cold War communications facility.

    “Built during the Cold War to withstand a 20 megaton blast, within just a few miles, this impervious underground complex accommodates up to 80 people, for a minimum of one year of fully autonomous survival, without needing to return to the surface,” states a promo for the bunker on the Vivos website.

    The main selling point is the location of the facility, which is a “safe distance away from the New Madrid fault line” and therefore a good hideaway to escape a “tsunami-type event”.

    “You go underground and it feels like you’re in a very nice hotel,” said Parramore.

    “This is for wealthy people who are concerned about various disaster scenarios, but a common theme among them is a fear of civil unrest, a fear of an uprising from the 99%,” she added.

    Units in some of the underground shelters, which also come with a year’s supply of food and water, start at around $35,000 dollars but the largest ones sell for upwards of $3 million dollars.

    “There is no assurance that our race will continue, therefore it is our responsibility to do everything we can to survive,” warns the Vivos website, which invites elitists to contact them for further information that is on a “need to know” basis only.

    As we reported last week, millionaires are fleeing Chicago and other major cities due to concerns over racial tensions and rising crime rates.

    “About 3,000 individuals with net assets of $1 million or more,” left Chicago in just the last year alone according to the Chicago Tribune.

    Paris and Rome are also seeing a mass exodus of millionaires, while wealthy elites are also installing panic rooms in their big city apartments due to fears over potential civil unrest and skyrocketing crime.

    Land and remote homes in places like New Zealand are also popular with the global 1%, with realtors citing the threat of worldwide financial instability and domestic disorder as motivating factors behind the purchases.

  • US Judge Rules Sandy Hook Victims Can Sue "Military-Style" Gun-Maker

    In a somewhat stunning decision, SkyNews reports that a US judge has ruled that the families of victims in the 2012 massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary School can sue the maker of the weapon used in the attack, arguing the Bushmaster rifle is a military weapon that should not have been sold to civilians.

    As SkyNews reports,

    Gun companies had sought to reject the negligence and wrongful death lawsuit filed two years after the attack by nine victims' relatives and a survivor.

     

    But Connecticut Superior Court Judge Barbara Bellis said a 2005 federal law protecting gun-makers from lawsuits does not shield the companies from legal action in this case.

     

    She ruled that lawyers for the victims' families can still argue the semi-automatic rifle is a military weapon and should not have been sold to civilians.

     

    The legal action names Remington Arms, maker of the Bushmaster AR-15 rifle, model XM15-E2S, as well as the distributor and seller.

     

    A lawyer for the families, Josh Koskoff, welcomed Thursday's news that the lawsuit can proceed.

     

    "We are thrilled that the gun companies' motion to dismiss was denied," he said.

     

    "The families look forward to continuing their fight in court."

    Gunman Adam Lanza used the Bushmaster to kill 20 children and six adults at the school in Newtown, Connecticut, in December 2012.

    Earlier this week a judge ruled that state police do not have to release to media some of Lanza's writings, including his spreadsheet ranking mass murders.

     

    Media were also seeking publication of 20-year-old Lanza's notebook titled The Big Book of Granny.

     

    It contains a story he wrote in fifth grade featuring a character who likes hurting people, especially children.

    So an otherwise totally normal kid driven to massacre by the 'availability' of a weapon? yep makes perfect sense.

  • Why For Japanese Traders "Every Day Is Like Being Alice In Wonderland"

    As the world is now fully aware, The BOJ surprised markets in January when it set a –0.1% rate on some deposits that banks place at the central bank, effective from mid-February. Its move was designed to encourage banks to lend more, spurring higher spending and inflation. Things are not working so well…

     

    And now, as The Wall Street Journal reports, some are already doubting the policy…

    Trading has withered in Japan’s money markets, where big banks and others usually park their excess cash hoping to receive some interest—despite predictions from the Bank of Japan that its latest easing of monetary policy would spark more activity.

     

    Traders have also pushed up the yen believing Japan’s central bank can’t do much more to ease policy.

     

    “Every day is like being Alice in Wonderland,” said Tomohisa Fujiki, head of interest-rate strategy at BNP Paribas Securities Japan. “Interest-rates levels are having no effect on credit demand, the market function is declining. You can’t expect everything to go according to plan.”

     

    “There’s no guarantee that lowering interest rates for retail and corporate borrowing would have the same effect [of preventing deflation] as it did in Europe,” said Nobuyuki Hirano, president of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial ??Group?Inc., Japan’s biggest bank, on Thursday, adding the negative-interest policy had caused households and businesses to rein in spending amid growing uncertainty over the future.

    But it is the money markets that are becoming a major issue…

    Money markets allow banks and other financial institutions to lend and borrow money for a period of less than a year, often not backed by collateral. If fewer banks invest cash in short-term markets, it is harder for other banks to get short-term loans to finance their operations.

     

    One problem has been Japanese banks’ computer systems: The trade confirmation system used by money-market brokers wasn’t fully updated for negative interest rates until over a month after the BOJ rate cut. Money-market trading volumes dropped to their lowest level since at least 2011 at the end of March, according to Japan’s Money Brokers Association, down to nearly a tenth of January’s levels.

     

    Japanese trust banks that manage cash on behalf of mutual and pension funds have in recent weeks been placing excess money on deposit at the Bank of Japan rather than into overnight money markets, where it might now attract a negative interest rate.

     

    “If the money market dries up, if there is an event like the Lehman crisis, there won’t be the infrastructure for banks to raise capital,” said Naomi Muguruma, strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. “It could cause interest rates to rise sharply.”

     

    Problems in the money markets have run counter to BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s expectations: last month he said that as market players get used to negative rates, money-market trading should increase.

    So – to sum up – NIRP has crushed liquidity (in all markets), sent foreign investors piling into JGBs to front-run chaotic BoJ buying, has actually discouraged risk-taking (breaking the back of Abe's crucial belief-based system of monetary policy), has strengthened the Yen (screwing the exporters), and finally – drum roll please – begun to drain money-market funds placing the entire Japanese financial system in a much more systemically-fragile state.

    But apart from that – more of the same is just what the doctor ordered.

    Given that Japan is now at QE22 with no signs of anything promised at all…


    As Alhambra's Jeffrey Snider once wrote
    ,

    What none of those have amounted to is an actual and sustainable economic advance; NONE, no matter how you count them. In very simple fact, the idea that central banks “need” to keep doing them in continuous fashion is quite convincing that at the very least they don’t mean what central bankers think they mean, and perhaps worse that the more they are done and to greater extents the more harm that eventually befalls. It isn’t difficult to suggest and even directly observe that Japan’s economy has shrunk during the QE age, but that fact isn’t applicable to Japan alone (there are sure too many non-adjusted data points that uncomfortably assert the same for even the US). That would seem to at least offer a basis for a “deflationary mindset” no matter the actual economic effects.

     

    This is not so much investing or even finance as it is a cult (calling it a religion or even ideology is unjustifiably too charitable). That is the usefulness of “deflationary mindset” not so much as a matter of actual economic pathology but as a built-in, squishy appeal to “we’ll get it right next time.” And there is always, always a next time which doesn’t seem to count for much inside the cult when, in fact, it is everything.

    And so finally, as if you had not had enough of the farce they call Japan, we get this headline tonight:

    • *BOJ SAID TO BE RECEPTIVE TO BUYING MORE ETFS: REUTERS

    And scene. It really is the monetary equivalent of “the beatings will continue until morale improves.”

    beatings

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