Today’s News 13th June 2016

  • The EU Is Coming To Close Down Your Free Speech

    Submitted by Douglas Murray via The Gatestone Institute,

    • The German Chancellor was not interested in the reinforcement of Europe's external borders, the re-erection of its internal borders, the institution of a workable asylum vetting system and the repatriation of people who had lied to gain entry into Europe. Instead, Chancellor Merkel wanted to know how Facebook's founder could help her restrict the free speech of Europeans, on Facebook and on other social media.

    • Then, on May 31, the European Union announced a new online speech code to be enforced by four major tech companies, including Facebook and YouTube.

    • It was clear from the outset that Facebook has a definitional problem as well as a political bias in deciding on these targets. What is Facebook's definition of 'racism'? What is its definition of 'xenophobia'? What, come to that, is its definition of 'hate speech'?

    • Of course the EU is a government — and an unelected government at that — so its desire not just to avoid replying to its critics — but to criminalise their views and ban their contrary expressions — is as bad as the government of any country banning or criminalising the expression of opinion which is not adulatory of the government.

    • People must speak up — must speak up now, and must speak up fast — in support of freedom of speech before it is taken away from them. It is, sadly, not an overstatement to say that our entire future depends on it.

    It is nine months since Angela Merkel and Mark Zuckerberg tried to solve Europe's migrant crisis. Of course having caused the migrant crisis by announcing the doors of Europe as open to the entire third-world, Angela Merkel particularly would have been in a good position actually to try to solve this crisis.

    But the German Chancellor was not interested in the reinforcement of Europe's external borders, the re-erection of its internal borders, the institution of a workable asylum vetting system and the repatriation of people who had lied to gain entry into Europe. Instead, Chancellor Merkel was interested in Facebook.

    When seated with Mark Zuckerberg, Frau Merkel wanted to know how the Facebook founder could help her restrict the free speech of Europeans, on Facebook and on other social media. Speaking to Zuckerberg at a UN summit last September (and not aware that the microphones were picking her up) she asked what could be done to restrict people writing things on Facebook which were critical of her migration policy. 'Are you working on this?' she asked him. 'Yeah', Zuckerberg replied.

    In the months that followed, we learned that this was not idle chatter over lunch. In January of this year, Facebook launched its 'Initiative for civil courage online', committing a million Euros to fund non-governmental organisations in its work to counter 'racist' and 'xenophobic' posts online. It also promised to remove 'hate speech' and expressions of 'xenophobia' from the Facebook website.

    It was clear from the outset that Facebook has a definitional problem as well as a political bias in deciding on these targets. What is Facebook's definition of 'racism'? What is its definition of 'xenophobia'? What, come to that, is its definition of 'hate speech'? As for the political bias, why had Facebook not previously considered how, for instance, to stifle expressions of open-borders sentiments on Facebook? There are many people in Europe who have argued that the world should have no borders and that Europe in particular should be able to be lived in by anyone who so wishes. Why have people expressing such views on Facebook (and there are many) not found their views censored and their posts removed? Are such views not 'extreme'?

    One problem with this whole area — and a problem which has clearly not occurred to Facebook — is that these are questions which do not even have the same answer from country to country. Any informed thinker on politics knows that there are laws that apply in some countries that do not — and often should not — apply in others. Contrary to the views of many transnational 'progressives', the world does not have one set of universal laws and certainly does not have universal customs. Hate-speech laws are to a very great extent an enforcement of the realm of customs.

    As such it is unwise to enforce policies on one country from another country without at least a very deep understanding of that country's traditions and laws. Societies have their own histories and their own attitudes towards their most sensitive matters. For instance in Germany, France, the Netherlands and some other European countries there are laws on the statute books relating to the publication of Nazi materials and the propagation of material praising (or even representing) Adolf Hitler or denying the Holocaust. The German laws forbidding large-scale photographic representations of Hitler may look ridiculous from London, but may look less ridiculous from Berlin. Certainly it would take an enormously self-confident Londoner unilaterally to prescribe a policy to change this German law.

    To understand things which are forbidden, or able to be forbidden, in a society, you would have to have an enormous confidence in your understanding of that country's taboos and history, as well as its speech codes and speech laws. A ban on the veneration of communist idols, for instance, may seem sensible, tasteful or even desirable in one of the many countries which suffered under communism, wish to minimise the suffering of the victims and prevent the resurrection of such an ideology. Yet a universal ban on images or texts which extolled the communist murderers of tens of millions of people would also make criminals of the thousands of Westerners — notably Americans — who enjoy wearing Che Guevara T-shirts or continue their adolescent fantasy that Fidel Castro is an icon of freedom. Free societies generally have to permit the widest possible array of opinion. But they will have different ideas of where legitimate expression ends and where incitement begins.

    So for Facebook and others to draw up their own attempt at a unilateral policy of what constitutes hate-speech would be presumptuous even if it were not — as it is — clearly politically biased from the outset. So it is especially lamentable that this movement to an enforced hate-speech code gained additional force on May 31, when the European Union announced a new online speech code to be enforced by four major tech companies, including Facebook and YouTube. Of course, the EU is a government — and an unelected government at that — so its desire not just to avoid replying to its critics — but to criminalise their views and ban their contrary expressions — is as bad as the government of any country banning or criminalising the expression of opinion which is not adulatory of the government.

    That these are not abstract issues but ones exceedingly close to home has been proven – as though it needed proving – by the decision of Facebook to suspend the account of Gatestone's Swedish expert, Ingrid Carlqvist. In the last year Sweden took in between 1 and 2% additional people to its population. Similar numbers are expected this year. As anyone who has studied the situation will know, this is a society heading towards a breakdown of its own creation, caused (at the most benign interpretation) by its own 'open-hearted' liberalism.

    Countries with welfare models such as Sweden's cannot take in such numbers of people without major financial challenges. And societies with a poor integration history cannot possibly integrate such vast numbers of people when they come at such speed. As anyone who has travelled around there can tell, Sweden is a country under enormous and growing strain.

    There is a phase in waking up to such change which constitutes denial. The EU, the Swedish government and a vast majority of the Swedish press have no desire to hear critiques of a policy which they have created or applauded; the consequences will one day be laid at their door and they wish to postpone that day, even indefinitely. So instead of tackling the fire they started, they have decided to attack those who are pointing to the fact that they have set the building they are standing in on fire. In such a situation it becomes not just a right but a duty of free people to point out facts even if other people might not want to hear them. Only a country sliding towards autocracy and chaos, with a governing class intent on avoiding blame, could possibly allow the silencing of the few people pointing out what they can clearly see in front of them.

    People must speak up — and speak up now, and speak up fast — in support of freedom of speech before it is taken away from them, and in support of journalists such as Carlqvist, and against the authorities who would silence all of us. It is, sadly, not an overstatement to say that our entire future depends on it.

  • Immigration Economics: Illegal Aliens Are Our Bread and Butter

     This article by David Haggith was first published on The Great Recession Blog.

     

    By Rrenner (Own work) [CC BY 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

    Have you ever wondered why politicians make some immigration illegal and then turn a blind eye to illegal immigration wherever it is happening … for decades? What about why they talk so much about building walls to keep out the vast hoards, rather than simply arresting the much smaller number of people who hire illegal immigrants. Surely drying up the jobs that are available to illegal immigrants would be much more economical than building a thousand-mile wall. This article will tell you why we make some immigration illegal and then turn a blind eye to it.

    Have you also wondered why politician make it illegal for millions of people to enter the country and then eventually support naturalizing those people who broke the laws these very politicians made? This article will answer that, too.

    First, I’ll state that immigration is largely about economics; and by that I do not simply mean that people are coming to the U.S. to gain economic opportunity, though, of course, they are. Nor do I simply mean immigrants are taking jobs away from Americans, though, of course, they are.

    There is an elephant in the room that no one is talking about, and it’s not just a GOP elephant. Immigration economics has a dark underbelly that neither party ever talks about. Since immigration reform is one of the major planks of the Republican’s top candidate for the presidency, there is no time like the present to talk about the elephant.

     

    Neither party wants to end illegal immigration nor make all immigration legal

     

    The fact is both parties have created an immigration dance that they love. First, they both turn a blind eye toward illegal immigration. That, in turn, causes the number of illegal aliens to grow quickly as word travels that “they won’t really do anything about it. Eventually, a large subculture of illegal immigrants becomes a serious social problem that demands political resolution because citizens of the country start getting worked up over the social conflicts they are feeling and the jobs they see going to illegal immigrants.

    The next step of the dance is the tricky one. We saw it happen in Reagan’s day. Both parties compromise in order to fix the problem without fixing it. They fix it by creating amnesty, which they always say is not amnesty because the citizens don’t like amnesty. They don’t fix it in in that they promise all the citizens who are angry about illegal immigration they will only let these illegal aliens in the door because turning them away would create a humanitarian crisis because the number has grown so large.Then they will batten the gates much tighter and never let it happen again. Only … they never do batten the gates at all, and so it happens all over again. Never mind that the number of illegal immigrants only grew to the point of becoming a humanitarian crisis because those same politicians turned a blind eye to illegal immigration for years.

    This article will also answer why that continues on a rinse-and-repeat basis. By the end of the article you may think, “Wow, he is really jaded about politicians,” or you might thing, “Wow, that makes total sense from an economic standpoint, and it really, really stinks.” You’d be right either way.

    Illegal aliens are our bread and butter, and we eat them for lunch. More particularly, politicians know what side their bread is buttered on. They get paid to provide cheap labor for rich people. Let’s break it down to some obvious facts.

     

    The economics of Illegal immigration

     

    The answer to all these questions is really pretty simple:  Illegal immigrants provide the closest thing the U.S. has to a peasant class. It is important that politicians make them illegal so that they will be true peasants (people with nor native rights nor any say in the laws that govern them). It’s important that politicians turn a blind eye to them so that we  will have peasants here … where we want them. It doesn’t accomplish anything toward creating a class of surfs to do work for the rich if we keep them out of the country. But, if they have rights as citizens, they will not remain surfs. We’ll have a peasant revolt.

    The wealthy business owners have wanted a peasant class ever since they could no longer have a slave class. A peasant class is the next best thing. Often, they have lusted for such laborers overseas, and they have gotten politicians into office who made it possible for them exploit an offshore peasant class with sweat shops.

    However, there are many jobs that cannot go overseas. They have to be done by more expensive American workers. If only we had a resident peasant class to do the work that American workers don’t want to do because it doesn’t pay enough.

    The Bush dynasty opened the doors to outsourcing as many jobs to lower-wage workers outside the country as possible in order to help wealthy stock holders amass more wealth, but there wasn’t anything either Bush could do about those jobs that have to be done inside the country … such as cleaning hotels and bussing dishes at restaurants or picking tomatoes grown domestically…. or was there?

    For those jobs, they needed to insource the outsourcing. In other words, they need to find ways to get peasant labor into the country. You know, the kind of labor that doesn’t expect health insurance and doesn’t cry about working conditions and most of all, works cheap.

    Strong immigration laws make that possible. When someone is illegal they are willing to work without benefits and with fewer rights and for less money because they have to stay under the radar. They are afraid of standing up for their rights. Heck, they hardly have rights to stand up for; but if they did stand up, they’d be deported instantly. (Those are the ones who particularly get to be sent home and made a show of so the p0liticians can convince the citizens that they are trying to uphold the laws.)

    Making some people’s presence in the country illegal while turning a blind eye to their being here assures a peasant class of workers. It’s as simple as that: Illegal immigrants are willing to work at subsistence levels because that is what they come from. They don’t need a wage that makes an American living. They have no say in what the government does to them or with them because, like peasants, they have no vote;  but also because they have to keep their heads low. The fact that they have almost no status in society at all assures they will remain cheap.

    As always, if you want to know why things happen, follow the money.

    If you think I’m being cynical and that the government is not intentionally letting illegal aliens in to take jobs at low wages, then ask yourself this simple question: What would happen if, instead of trying to arrest and return home millions of illegal aliens, the government just started arresting and jailing the thousands people who have hired them … starting with just the top one-hundred? The jobs would dry up before you even made it through the top one hundred.

    That’s what would happen, and you know it. People will hire illegal aliens if there is only a financial penalty if you get caught and if they’re pretty sure the government will keep turning a blind eye to the situation; but start putting those employers in jail, and all employers will quickly be checking the ID and green cards of their migrant workers to make sure they have a legal right to work here.

    As soon as the jobs dried up, illegal immigrants who could get no work would find their plight worse here than in their home country, and they would return home of their own free will … unless, of course, you put them on welfare because you’re softhearted, but also softheaded about the costs … and you feel it is the United State’s obligation to save the entire world from poverty and to make your kids and grandkids pay for your benevolence by financing the welfare with national debt.

    You see, you really don’t have to round up millions of people hiding in bushes. You have to round up only hundreds of big employers whose whereabouts are easily known by their big houses. Notice that does not happen. Not ever. You really don’t have to build a wall either. Notice the wall has been talked about for thirty years and still isn’t finished.

    Big business wants cheap labor, and politicians protect their benefactors. The cheapest labor is that which is illegal but knowingly allowed to happen anyway. The justification for turning a blind eye is always, “Americans don’t want these jobs.” If your head is dumber than a turnip and stuck equally deep in the dirt, then you have long accepted that as truth. Actually, it’s just that it sounded reasonable, so you didn’t think it through. If you were dumber than a turnip you wouldn’t be reading this economics blog.

    To think it through, ask yourself why Americans don’t want those jobs. Is it because they’re dirty jobs? That’s the party line. And that may be a small part if it, but cleaning hotels isn’t that bad. Washing and bussing dishes isn’t that bad. Picking tomatoes isn’t that bad.

    Before you say, “Hold on; it’s bad enough,” let me agree that none of it is desirable work to be sure. I mean, I don’t want to go do it. However, American citizens line up to do a lot worse jobs … such as cleaning out and repairing sewer lines. So, why will an American worker clean out a sewer line but not pick a pretty tomato?

    The answer, again, is pretty straight forward when you think it through: the guy who cleans out your sewer line is a plumber, and he makes a whole lot more money per hour to do that work than he could doing those other jobs. If he could make the same amount doing dishes, don’t you think he’d rather be inside cleaning dishes than outside in the mud cleaning sewer pipes? Bending over the tomato plants will also work just as well for sporting that plump plumber derrière.

    Americans don’t want certain jobs because wages for those particular jobs have been suppressed for decades by the availability of cheap, illegal immigrant labor. If there had been a ready pool of people willing to take those jobs at bottom wages, then the wages would have had no choice but to rise over the decades to a level that would attract workers. The dishes have to be washed for the grand hotels to stay in business, and there is a wage at which Americans will line up for the job.

    That’s just market dynamics, but that wages sink to whatever the lowest common denominator will accept is also just market dynamics.

    Now we come to the point where immigration economics really kicks in. The dirty secret is that it is not just the politicians who want the cheap labor and not just big business owners. American citizens want a peasant class, too. That’s why the politicians get away with it.

    Americans want cheap tomatoes and cheaper dinners out. (Well, many of them; not all.) We all know that, if the pickers and the dish washers made more money, we’d have to pay more for the food we eat in and more for the food we eat out. We’d have less to spend on video games and larger televisions. That’s also just a market dynamic. You’re going to pay more for a lot of things if illegal aliens don’t do the jobs for less.

    So, from the bottom to the top, illegal immigration is all about the economic benefits of having a peasant class to do the dirty work in order to afford all the citizens a little better lifestyle.

    But if establishing some people as an illegal class that many citizens turn a blind eye to is something many Americans want, why do politicians eventually always come around to talking about making more immigration legal?

     

    The economics and politics of immigration reform

     

    The rub in all of this is that the peasant class eventually gets large enough to stage a peasant revolt. That’s when the federal government starts to talk once again about amnesty — the politically correct term for which is “immigration reform.”

    Naturally, the politicians do all they can to avoid the term “amnesty” because all previous amnesties left a bad taste in Joe and Jolene Citizen’s mouths because the government promised not to let illegals in again and then did so anyway. (And Americans are ambivalent about having a peasant class; they want the cheap tomatoes but they don’t want their own jobs taken, or they feel bad about seeing people work so cheaply, and guilt kicks in.)

    In the guilt cycle, we atone for our sins and then go back to repeating them. So, the politicians atone for guilt by granting citizenship and then keep letting lots more illegals in to maintain the peasant worker class. (And Joe and Jolene really don’t think too much about this because they like those cheap tomatoes. If you think about it too much, the guilt kicks in, and its hard to enjoy the cheap tomato.)

    Bear in mind, they have to be illegal to remain a peasant class because that’s what forces them to keep their heads down. Just letting in more legalized labor would not do as much to hold the price down.

    Sooner or later, however, you have to give that growing peasant class citizenship. What you forgot about when building up the peasant labor pool is that those people also suffer from this thing we call the “human condition.” So, they start to expect citizenship because they are tired of seeing everyone else around them have more rights and more money than they do. At first, they were glad to come here just for the economic benefit, but now they reach for a higher brass ring. We all rise to a plateau and then feel we could be happy with just thirty percent more.

    If you don’t grant a path to citizenship eventually for all your indentured servants, you face a peasant revolt. Their shear numbers give them power. So, the gates finally open under pressure to allow citizenship for the vast bulk of those who are here illegally. And then they shut again, and all eyes turn blind again in order to develop a new peasant class. We are currently at the peasant revolt point where we have to deal with this.

    Of course, President Obama has been intimating openly for seven years now that he will open those gates to citizenship. Naturally that has attracted hoards of people to migrate to the U.S. illegally in hopes that they will make it through the gates of the city before they close again. This has made the problem grow fast enough that the time for resolving a peasant revolt is happening during Obama’s own shift as president. That’s advantageous because, if he can be the one who gets the hoards in the door, they will probably all become good Democrats to bestow their blessed new votes upon him and his.

    Most good citizen Democrats will support open-door policies toward mass immigration because it is the soft-hearted thing to do. So, he won’t find much resistance from his own party.

    At the same time, many Republicans in Congress will support it because the revolt is happening. There is no getting around it. Republicans know that even legalimmigrants are willing to work for less than native citizens because of the situations they came out of; so it’s good for big business. Still helps keep down the cost of labor, even if not as much as illegal immigration does.

    There is no will on either side of the aisle to do anything real to stop illegal immigration for good. That’s why the Republicans capitulated overnight in granting money for immigration reform without a word … once the last elections were over. The last thing they would want to do is talk about this elephant in the room and expose the real underpinnings of illegal immigration.

    At the same time, they created funding for more border security for political cover. That’s all smoke and mirrors to appease the concerns of rank and file Republicans who are tired of being unemployed. You know now that it was smoke and mirrors because you can see that, after a couple of years, it has done nothing to stem the problem.

    The real solution — if everybody wanted one — is obvious, and I already completely covered it in just one sentence. Jail the employers, and the problem goes away on its own. It’s not about bolting the gates at the border. Illegal immigrants are not coming here because they love the culture; they are coming here for economic opportunity because the peasant class here is a lot better off than the peasant class at home. You can’t blame them. I don’t. Bad as the wages and benefits may be, they’re much better than what they had.

    So, that’s how the game is played and why Republican politicians are ready to allow amnesty without calling it that and while making a lot of noise about spending money to bar the gates. That’s why they’ll continue to turn a blind eye toward the employers who hire illegal aliens.

    It would be a simple thing to create a law that awards jail time based on the number of illegal aliens hired and to start auditing companies now. It’s not that hard for auditors to see if all employees have the right proof of citizenship, and it’s not hard as the person doing the hiring to make sure that all employees have the right documentation and to prove it with facsimiles. You do need good quality documentation that’s hard to counterfeit, but that’s doable, and no system has to be perfect in order to be much better than what we have.

    You won’t hear that talked about by any politician — not even Donald Trump, who is still stuck on the wall.

     

    What is the cost of immigration economics?

     

    The New York Times just published an article about some of the costs of immigration that I find to be far worse than paying more for my tomatoes. Frankly, I’ve been coming across these kinds of articles a lot lately. This one talks about the Islamization of England through attempted control of its public schools by Islamic immigrants. It is stunning how far they have gone in turning some schools into a Muslim cultural institution.

    I read a lot of major European newspapers, and I’ve been seeing this all over Europe for a couple of years. It’s a high social cost.

    Articles in The Telegraph, The Guardian, The Daily Mail, The Jerusalem Post, and numerous other major news sites show me a pattern happening in countries that have been too liberal in their immigration policies. Britain, Germany, France, Norway and Sweden, to name a few are all starting to see internal revolt from their native citizens against immigration because certain immigrants truly do not like the culture they are moving into. They seek to turn the country into what they are used to.

    I think the resulting homogenization of cultures that happens when immigrants try to turn their new land into their old land is also a great loss of diversity and interest.

    Here’s an article on Germany that describes the problem there. Germany has the second-most liberal immigration policy in the world. Guess which nation has the most liberal immigration policy in the world? The U.S.

     

    My own experience of immigration in my neck of the woods

     

    I feel strongly that mmigration in the U.S. needs to be slowed way down. Liberals are creating huge culture clashes by not giving people time to get used to each other’s ways, and they’re creating overpopulation and environmental harm.

    I see this happening all around me. The county I live in is experiencing gridlock for the first time in its existence. Almost all population growth has been from immigration. The county has nearly doubled in size in two decades. While it is about as far from Latin American as you can get, billboards and signs are now starting to use Spanish with no English.

    Prior to to the last two decades, population growth and immigration in this county were gradual. Rapid population growth is resulting in tighter and tighter building regulations to avoid the problems of overdevelopment; so how is such immigration good for the people who live here? Why are we better off with more gridlock? (Simple. It sells more real estate, so again it’s all about money.)

    To me it is not about where the people come from, it’s about the shear number of people. Why do I want them? I wouldn’t want this level of immigration even if they all came from merry old England where my ancestors came from. We have enough people, thanks, and far too few good paying jobs.

    Nevertheless, the group of Latino immigrants is different than all others — much different. Have you noticed television programming is becoming increasingly dominated by Spanish all over the nation. That’s never happened with any other language in this county, and yet this country was made from immigrants from all over the world. All other people accepted the language and culture they moved into and made it their own and became a part of it.

    This pressure to Latinize our own culture in order to accommodate is not because the people are different than other immigrants. They’re just as nice as any other group of people. What’s different is the volume. Latin American immigrants provided such a major portion of the carefully engineered peasant population that they have become such a large group they don’t have to make those changes. They are large enough to demand others change to accommodate them. This is the cost of creating a large peasant population.

    Lest anyone mistake me in an oversensitive manner to thinking I’m calling them peasants because they are Latin, I want to place a reminder here that race has nothing to do with it. They are peasants because they are part of an illegal population made up of all races that exists intentionally to provide cheap labor for the United States. They exist because politicians intentionally turn a blind eye to them but keep them illegal so they have to hold their heads down.

    Big businesses love cheap labor. Big real estate developers love population growth. The locals aren’t having babies fast enough, so immigration means a lot more construction of everything and cheap labor to do the construction so the developers make more money all around.

    I have seen vast acres of beautiful, fertile agricultural land and entire forested mountainsides turn into housing developments entirely bought up by immigrants. In this case, Russian and Indian. In my area, its has turned a beautiful rural county into a sprawling suburb. It’s certainly not an environmental positive, but Democrats love it, too.

     

    The cultural cost of mass migration

     

    The current European immigration crisis has become a political inferno because Islamic immigrants try to change the cultures they move into. Just so this discussion is not about Islam, let’s imagine that it was Jewish mass migration into the United States. In my opinion, if Jews moved to this nation and wanted to speak Hebrew at home and to practise all the rules of Judaism, no one should have a problem with that; but if many Jews moved here and because they had the power of numbers, insisted that government documents be written in Hebrew, we should all have a major problem with that. If they insisted Torah be fought in public schools we should have a problem with that. If they went further an insisted that Torah law become the law of the land, we should have a very big problem with that.

    That, however, has not happened with Jewish immigration, but in some European countries Muslim immigrants are demanding public school classes teach their religion and that government institutes Sharia law. Read the New York Times article above. It will open your eyes about a pattern that is recurring in a number of Western nations.

    I certainly would not move to France and expect the French to speak English to me or to write government documents in English for me. Yet, people are moving to France from Islamic nations and demanding that courts start recognizing Sharia or that the country create special courts for Muslims.

    Culture clashes like this are unavoidable when immigrants are brought in from one culture in huge numbers. If we do not slow immigration to a level where migrants can assimilate with the culture the culture of the country they are moving into, then we will certainly create more and more internal conflicts that will begin to boil over.

    What may seem like a liberal dose of love toward immigrants will prove to be naiveté about human interactions. You have to allow time for people to adjust to each other. When you force people together as Obama has done (doubling the immigration rate) or as Merkel has done in Germany, you continually spawns greater conflict. People do not adjust to each other just because they are forced to.

    We are going to see a lot more racial and nationalistic conflict in Western countries because of the huge increase in legal immigration and the blind eye turned toward illegal immigration along with the amnesty that is coming.

     

    One of my problems is that I love different cultures so much

     

    I like to see lots of difference in culture. Viva la difference. I don’t like homogeneity. And that’s why people need to assimilate when they move into a country, rather than try to transform it into something more like their own culture and country.

    Each country’s culture has its own beauty, and we are losing that all over the world rapidly due to globalization. People in those cultures are feeling that loss. And it’s not inevitable. It’s something politicians are forcing.

    Before you throw the race card at me, you need to know this is written by a guy who thinks interracial children are the most beautiful children on earth, who loves the different looks of different races for all the exotic variety of beauty race gives to this world, who loves accents and who loves to travel and who hopes that nations will have distinctive cultures when he travels to them. Since I was a child I was brought up to love all people of all races and to believe that each race is a different kind of flower in God’s flower garden. The world teams with creative diversity, and that’s beautiful.

    But I’d like Norway to be Norwegian in culture and England, English and Germany, German and Morocco, Moroccan. I don’t want an homogenized world. I want a world with different nations and cultures that respect each other and get along, and that is not what we are getting with mass migration. We are getting a lot more racial conflict from people who seem to have an agenda of forcing others together.

    I don’t  think crashing people together like neutrons in a particle accelerator is going to create any chemistry other than a great big bang. People who want to migrate to another country should not go with any intention of changing that nation’s culture, which particularly includes language. Go to appreciate and mix with the culture that is there and become a part of it. If you don’t like that culture as it is, just don’t go!

    I also don’t think that overpopulation is a good thing. Bringing in hundreds of thousands of immigrants into a state like Florida or California that is, in my opinion, already overpopulated makes now sense. Flooding them into rural areas also makes no sense, as it completely destroys the rural nature of those areas.

    I don’t see that we need more people or that we have a duty to take them. But I DO see that it serves the interest of real estate developers and of businesses that want cheap labor and of politicians that think they can bolster the vote for their party if they give thousands of migrant workers citizenship so they can vote.

    What you see in all the fury around Donald Trump’s rallies is the anger that comes from forcing people together in mass finally starting to express itself. And you’re going to see a lot more of it! The cost in civil unrest is going to become quite high as a result of people who think they know how to do good by forcing others together.

    The most liberal nations of the world are destroying their own cultures and creating racial and nationalistic strife because many of their citizens value their culture and many of the immigrants do not. In Europe you can see that immigrants treat the culture they are moving into with contempt. Violent crime has surged. While some politicians may be advocating rapid immigration out of a sense that they are doing good (acting benevolent toward underprivileged or persecuted people) and others are doing it just to add voters or bring in cheap labor for their Wall Street benefactors, the cost is going to be great.

    Just know that what you are seeing on both sides of Trump rallies is just the tip of the flame unless politicians start backing down from forcing immigration in their already overpopulated nations.

  • False flag, blow-back, or incompetence? A FOREX look at Orlando Pedassacre

    This tragic event in Orlando is an opportunity to connect the dots in an ever simple global world; as explained in Splitting Pennies – key to understanding Forex markets and how our global financial system includes understanding international politics, and specifically US foreign policy, and how it is connected to the US Dollar as a world reserve currency.  Forex is information brokerage, both as a facilitator and as primary emission of that information.  It is by itself, information – as well, those who play ‘the great game’ use it to execute their strategem.  

    This event, is a domestic event with no implications on the markets (although maybe a short term boom for Smith & Wesson (SWHC) ).  It’s not going to affect Forex, directly.  But it will affect foreign policy – not by itself, but as one woven yarn in a policy sweater.  There will be in the days and months ahead, political aggressiveness to ‘fight terrorism.’  This event alone, would not be sufficient to go to war with Syria for example, but in the area of domestic support of foreign actions, such events are key to seizing the hearts and minds of the average American, and in this case also the LGBT community – embroiled in domestic disputes of their own.

    The fact that the shooter was in contact with the FBI isn’t necessarily suspicious.  The FBI is in contact with millions of people all around the world, connected to cases, and their daily operations.  The fact that shooter worked for this G4S, as reported first here on Zero Hedge – is highly suspicious.  Omar Mateen effectively worked for DHS, although through a subcontracted private company.  This is the “Department of Homeland Security” designed to protect us from such ‘terrorists.’  

    Let’s examine 3 motives:

    False Flag

    If you are one of these TV watchers that believe ‘it doesn’t happen in America’ read the following report from PNAC (Project for a New American Century) in full here – note the DATE and note the SIGNERS of this ‘research’ that says, before 9/11:

    Further, the process of transformation,
    even if it brings revolutionary change, is
    likely to be a long one, absent some
    catastrophic and catalyzing event – like a
    new Pearl Harbor. 

    What an interesting coincidence, that a Washington based think tank that worries about a declining budget (because of declining real military threats) and declining power, should within a short year after publishing their report have the justification they need to increase their budgets and power by 10.  Or more recently, look at evidence of Sandy Hook false flag here and here.

    So was this pedassacre a false flag – to escalate our involvement in Syria, Ukraine, or a number of other global hotspots?  Possible, but not probable.  

    Blowback

    Omar’s parents were from Afghanistan.  He’s a first generation US Citizen refugee child.  How they came to America, is not really important – during any war there is a flood of refugees, not only to America, but often they do flee to their captors (and in many cases, providing information to save their lives).  Being born into these circumstances, watching your country burn (even if his current country was America – his family was still connected to Afghanistan) affects your subconscious.  In this case, the programming of American culture works against the establishment.  It’s telling him to be free – live his desires, and kill kill kill – murder murder murder.  Violent video games, movies, and culture encourage such events – they foster a hostile warlike environment.  A culture of violence is necessary for programming a domestic population sufficient to justify foreign entanglements of war, looting foreign resources, and empire.  We bring war into your living room, tonight at 11 – watch how we spend billions of dollars and ‘help people’ in the middle east.  

    “Blowback” is when, the people who America bombs are not happy, and come back for ‘revenge’ – now they are called “Terrorists.”  Blowback rarely makes its way back to the continential United States, because it takes funding, planning, intelligence, and a well oiled machine to slip through the cracks of a security apparatus.  This is where cultural blowback can be devastating, because there are thousands of disgruntled children of immigrants now being born in America, who will grow up to be flag waving homegrown terrorists in 10, 20, and 30 years.  These children will not be on any Terrorist watchlist, and they will have normal childhoods, not knowing that they’ll join a terror group when they become teenagers.

    The foreign policy of the United States of America post 9/11 breeds terrorists, at home and abroad.  Whether there were or were not many Terrorists in the world in the year 2000, now they are growing exponentially.  Until the US Military pulls out of the middle east, and as long as the US blindly supports Israel, there’s going to be “Terrorists” who “Hate our freedoms.”  The only “Freedom” the US enjoys is to bomb these countries into oblivion with virtually no repercussions.  Well, now we are seeing the repercussions.  

    Incompetence

    DHS, FBI, and others – somehow ‘missed’ a potential attack, by not properly connecting the dots.  This is an extremely unlikely scenario – the event happened 15 minutes from a local FBI field office, who has their “Pulse” on the local community.  Just last month, the FBI foiled a terror plot involving a man who wanted to apparently bomb a synagogue.  They monitor all electronic activity, are we to believe they didn’t pick up any ‘chatter’ ?   We can’t disprove a negative, there’s no evidence supporting the incompetence theory – that it was a ‘mistake.’  Many will say it was incompetence, because Omar was in contact with the FBI previously – and the thinking goes, they already ‘knew’ about his connections to Islam, and so – should have stopped him from buying guns at the first checkpoint, and at the second checkpoint – from any preliminary preparations that were made minutes leading into the event (such as communication with his Terrorist friends).  Not incompetence.

    Forex in focus

    So what does such an event have to do with Forex trading?  Well – it’s all part of a plan to support US Dollar hegemony.  How does that work?  As we explain in detail in Splitting Pennies – there’s a policy in washington that goes something like – use US Dollars or we’ll bomb you.  If you do use US Dollars, maybe you’d like to buy our nice US Treasuries, such as TIPS?  One leg supporting the Petro Dollar is no longer a secret – data has been released that show Saudi’s holdings – about $116 Billion as of March.  How does this support the US Dollar?  Well, imagine that the $116 Billion was sitting in Russian Ruble instead.  Also, as they buy US Treasuries, they first need to buy US Dollars.  Converting from Riyal to USD provides natural support for USD – also, by pricing their oil in USD – buyers of oil must first convert to USD.  It’s really a genius method to support the US Dollar, created by Richard Nixon.  It is long term thinking, that isn’t subject to daily market pressures.  Anyway, shortly before the most recent US invasion of Iraq, they wanted to price oil in Euros.  USA said – NO.  Wrong answer.  Must buy USD.  It’s really a simple policy, let’s not be sensational or dramatic about it.  Without this long term support of the USD, America wouldn’t enjoy such import advantages, things in China wouldn’t be ‘cheap’ – and America wouldn’t be able to carry such a hudge debtload as it does, and other advantages.  This also virtually eliminates the need for any domestic Forex programs – because the USD is unchallenged.  There’s a natural tendency for those policies that support US Dollar hegemony, to crush anything that smells like “Forex” – and to further justification of foreign entanglements du jour.  On today’s menu, we have Syria, Ukraine, Russia, and NATO expansion in East Europe.  From Tyler Durden:

    With tensions between Russia and the West at post-cold war highs, a former NATO deputy military chief is now saying that anuclear war with Russia over the Baltic nations in 2017 is “entirely plausible” according to RT.

    This example contrasts brightly what many understand is Forex – the day to day trading of Euros for Dollars that drive the EUR/USD rate up and down.  And practically, it’s easier for many to make a business out of rate speculation in Forex than in many other markets.  But to understand Forex, one must understand its origin, why it exists, by what powers and authority.  

    To conclude, the US Dollar is backed by something, although it’s not Gold.  It’s backed by bombs.  That’s more than can be said for many competing currencies, including the popular Bitcoin.  Unless you have a world class super army behind you – good luck launching a new currency.

    To learn more about Forex, try starting by reading Splitting Pennies – Understanding Forex.  If you want to learn about Forex day-trading, checkout Baby Pips – free Forex education & resources.  When you’re ready to open an account – sign up for our Elite FX Service first – it can make you or save you a bundle.

  • Markets In Turmoil As Brexit Fears Mount And Japan, China Data Tumbles

    FX, equity, and bond markets are in turmoil as Asian markets begin trading with Japan ugly, Sterling getting spanked, China devaluing FX (stocks down hard), and crude ($48 handle) and US equity futures (Dow -70) extending losses (as bond markets are all tumbling to record low yields). The hangover from further brexit concerns is not helped by the weakness in Japanese and Chinese data tonight.

    First Japanese manufacturing data was a disaster…

     

    Then Chinese data largely disappointed. A "meet" in Industrial Production – hovering at multi-year lows…

    *CHINA MAY INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT RISES 6.0% FROM YEAR EARLIER

     

    Retail Sales missed…*CHINA MAY RETAIL SALES RISE 10.0% FROM YEAR EARLIER (lowest since 2006)

     

    And FAI missed… *CHINA JAN.-MAY FIXED-ASSET INVESTMENT EXC. RURAL RISES 9.6% (lowest since 2000)

     

    And if the anxiety over global growth and Brexit were not enough, this China data has sparked even more turmoil in markets as Asia gets going…

    First, Japan…

    • *JAPAN'S TOPIX INDEX EXTENDS DROP TO 3%; NIKKEI 225 FALLS 3%

    Japanese stocks shorts biggest since 2008…

    And Japanese 10Y Yields record lows (along with 20Y and 5Y)…

    But it's not just Japan, Germany, and Switzerland…

    • TAIWAN 10-YR GOVT BOND HITS RECORD LOW OF 0.76%

     

    In China, as we could have guessed by Bitcoin's surge, the Yuan is tumbling…

    PBOC devalues the Yuan fix by over 2 handles – back near 5 year lows…

     

    As the Yuan basket plunged to lowest since Nov 2014

     

    Chinese stocks are down most in 6 weeks:

    • *HANG SENG INDEX FALLS 2%
    • *CHINA'S SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX FALLS 1.3% TO 2,889.91 AT OPEN

     

    And anything Brexit-related…

    Cable at 2mo lows…

     

    Sterling shorts biggest in 3 years…

     

    and GBPJPY is a bloodbath… Pound plunging to lowest since Aug 2013…

     

    And finally, gold is holidng its recent gains…

     

    Despite the monkeyhammering it got earlier…

     

    Which must be very upsetting for The BIS. Given this much turmoiling, one can only imagine the central bank efforts to make sure Monday opens green on the NYSE.

     

    Charts: Bloomberg

  • Bill & Hillary Clinton: Republicans' Fifth Column In Democratic Politics

    Authored by Ben Tanosborn,

    Forty days left until the Democratic Party’s convention in Philadelphia, and Bernie, just like Jesus did two millennia ago, will be trying to find answers in solitude… and fight temptation from the devil of “accommodating politics.”  Jesus would do it, according to the Gospels, in the wilderness without food; Bernie is likely to do it at home, in pretty Burlington (Vermont), keeping a normal diet and the company of a smart phone.

    The demonstration of affection for progressivism by Democrats and honest-to-heart Independents was dealt a heavy blow by Tuesday’s election results; results likely to be reinforced by President Obama’s imminent endorsement of Hillary Clinton… triggered by a battle cry urgency to stop this 2016-boogeyman, Donald Trump, from branding the nation as his psycho-political casino:  Fantasy-Trump-America.

    It’s beginning to look as if the $200 million spent by Bernie believers to bring about and promote a progressive sociopolitical agenda for America may prove not to have been in vain, as the voice of progressivism that Clinton-Husband silenced in the 1990’s, might not  remain totally muzzled in Clinton-Wife’s prospective centrist-right platform.

    Resurgent progressivism and loyal conservatism both appear to be undergoing painful castration in this 2016 presidential election; one by undemocratic and corrupt insider party politics, the other by the uglier face of bigoted-populism which might represent well over 25 percent of the nation’s population.  No, folks… not 5, 10 or 15 percent, but upwards of a quarter, maybe a third! This populism is responding to a demographic change in America of major transformational proportions; populism with a latent bigotry now finding an opportunity to surface as champion-du-jour, Donald Trump, singularly leads the way in “finally!” making acceptable both the vocalization and the behavior that up to now has been considered taboo, politically incorrect.   

    Once again we are politically marching towards another presidential election with the limited prospect of choices, most based on aesthetics, not substance; a chance to select the proverbial lesser evil or failing to select at all.  Next January, either odious-Donald or odious-Hillary will be taking up White House residency, Johnson (Libertarian) and Stein (Green) having only non-critical influence in the outcome of the election thanks to our electoral system.  And that brings us to why America is in such dire straits.

    It’s been eight decades since the start of the Spanish Civil War and the advent of that cloak-and-dagger term, “fifth column,” coined by a Spanish general, Emilio Mola, and popularized in the works of an American writer, Ernest Hemingway.

    A fifth column referred to a secret group that surreptitiously undermined the efforts of a larger group from within; a term perhaps a bit distant and esoteric for us today, but its meaning, whether we associate it with patriotism or with treason, remains with us no matter what we call it, or how we prefer to explain its aims and behavior.

    Some of us feel that the Clintons, given the major transformation that has taken place in Democratic national politics in the past generation, did become the quintessential fifth column for the G.O.P., instrumental in sowing, cultivating and harvesting such change.  A change that drastically disconnected the Democratic Party from the progressive nerve center of old, its “new and improved” Clintonian party ideology finding a permanent home in the center-right confines of America’s political spectrum.

    Bill Clinton, and his then bride, Hillary, may have entered elective politics in Arkansas back in the mid-1970’s using the Democratic front door, but in chameleonic fashion, as Ronald Reagan consolidated the tenets of his presidency in the 1980’s, Governor Clinton was quick to mimic his own right turn in politics in the hinterlands of Arkansas.  Heck, if President Reagan was then making hay advocating a smaller government and welfare reform, Bill and his Little Rock cadre of young New Democrats certainly was able to see an immediate personal future following suit embracing both issues, a plagiarized version of what The Old Gipper was preaching from the White House.  After all, old soldiers may never die, but young politicians must adopt change – ideology forever damned!  Or they too, like the old soldiers, could slowly (or speedily) fade away.

    And Bill Clinton then, just as Bill Clinton now, was proving to be masterful at remaining politically relevant without the slightest intention of fading away.  And that feverish desire for relevance as qualified and quantified in his mind by both money and power, appeared to consume not just him but his spouse as well throughout their lives.  Such intense desire might have given this duo the cavalier attitude many of us see in them.  It’s as if this couple is intent to prove to any and all Americans that fidelity has little or nothing to do with the rule of morality, and everything to do with faithfulness to a cause, particularly when that cause is close, personal and meritoriously deserved; even if characterized by most as personal selfishness, totally lacking honesty and decorum.

    Bernie will give his all to bring back progressivism to the Democratic Party, but it will be to no avail… for Americans are not yet ready for a revolution; we may still need a few more darker days in both the economy and our unintended quest in world affairs.

    By election time the Clintons political machine will be humming, well-greased, courtesy of Wall Street… and the fifth column will no longer have to operate in the shadows, Hillary and Bill having made fifth column deception a mainstream virtue.
     

  • Big Names Are Bailing

    Submitted by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,

    The list of heavy hitters who are saying bad things about this world and its financial markets – while acting aggressively on their pessimism – is growing to alarming proportions. A few examples:

    Stan Druckenmiller: The bull market is exhausted; move to gold

    (MineWeb) – Legendary investor Stan Druckenmiller, founder of Duquesne Capital Management LLC, told the Sohn Investment Conference in New York last week that he is bullish on gold and bearish on the stock market. Gold, he told the conference, “is our largest currency allocation.”

     

    Druckenmiller recommended that investors sell their equity holdings. “The bull market is exhausting itself,” he told the conference. A major factor has been the Federal Reserve’s easy money policy, which has resulted in “reckless” corporate behavior.

     

    Growing corporate debt is increasingly used for financial engineering, rather than in R&D that could lead to productivity improvements, Druckenmiller said. According to him, from 2012 to 2015, use of debt for U.S. nonfinancial firms for stock buybacks and M&A increased from $1.25 trillion to $2 trillion, while debt for R&D and office equipment grew from $1.55 trillion to only $1.8 trillion.

     

    “The corporate sector today is stuck in a vicious cycle of earnings management, questionable allocation of capital, low productivity, declining margins and growing indebtedness,” Druckenmiller added.

     

    The slowing Chinese economy as another reason to sell equities, according to Druckenmiller. He believes that stimulus measures by China have “aggravated the overcapacity in the economy.” While he had hope two years ago that the Chinese were willing to accept the tradeoff of a slowdown to gain reform, the Chinese “have opted for another investment-focused fiscal stimulus, which may buy them some time but will exacerbate their problem. They do not need more debt and more houses.”

     

    Instead, Druckenmiller has made a move to gold. “It has traded for 5,000 years and for the first time has a positive carry in many parts of the globe as bankers are now experimenting with the absurd notion of negative interest rates,” he said. “Some regard it as a metal, we regard it as a currency, and it remains our largest currency allocation,” he added. Among his investments are holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust.

     

    ————————————-

     

    A Bearish George Soros Is Trading Again

    (Fox Business) – Worried about the outlook for the global economy and concerned that large market shifts may be at hand, the billionaire hedge-fund founder and philanthropist recently directed a series of big, bearish investments, according to people close to the matter.

    Soros Fund Management LLC, which manages $30 billion for Mr. Soros and his family, sold stocks and bought gold and shares of gold miners, anticipating weakness in various markets. Investors view gold as a haven during times of turmoil.

     

    Mr. Soros’s recent hands-on approach reflects a gloomier outlook than many. His worldview darkened over the past six months as economic and political issues in China, Europe and elsewhere have become more intractable. While the U.S. stock market has inched back toward records after troubles early this year and Chinese markets have stabilized, Mr. Soros said he remains skeptical of the Chinese economy, which is slowing.

     

    The fallout from any unwinding of Chinese investments likely will have global implications, Mr. Soros said.

     

    “China continues to suffer from capital flight and has been depleting its foreign currency reserves while other Asian countries have been accumulating foreign currency,” Mr. Soros said in an email. “China is facing internal conflict within its political leadership, and over the coming year this will complicate its ability to deal with financial issues.”

     

    Mr. Soros also argues that there remains a good chance the European Union will collapse under the weight of the migration crisis, continuing challenges in Greece and a potential exit by the United Kingdom from the EU.

     

    “If Britain leaves, it could unleash a general exodus, and the disintegration of the European Union will become practically unavoidable, ” he said. Still, Mr. Soros said recent strength in the British pound is a sign that a vote to exit the EU is less likely.

     

    Mr. Soros’s bearish firm bought over 19 million shares of Barrick Gold Corp. in the first quarter, according to securities filings, making it the firm’s largest stockholding at the end of the quarter. That position has gained more than $90 million since the end of the first quarter. Soros Fund Management also bought a million shares of miner Silver Wheaton Corp. in the first quarter, a position that has increased 28% so far in the second quarter.

     

    The last time Mr. Soros became closely involved in his firm’s trading: 2007, when he became worried about housing and placed bearish wagers over two years that netted more than $1 billion of gains.

    ————————————-

     

    If the Markets Crash Then Carl Icahn Could Win Big

    (Barrons) – If financial markets crash, one of the biggest beneficiaries could be billionaire investor Carl Icahn.

    An investment fund run by the 80-year-old Icahn had a net short position of 149% at the end of the first quarter. Icahn is considerably more bearish than he was at the end of 2015, when the fund’s net short position was 25%. A year ago, the fund had a net long position of 4%. It’s rare to see a fund outside a dedicated short fund with such a large bearish stance.

     

    Asked about the big bearish stance, Icahn Enterprises CEO Keith Cozza said on the conference call that “Carl has been very vocal in recent weeks in the media” about his negative views. “We’re much more concerned about the market going down 20% than we are it going up 20%. And so the significant weighting to the short side reflects that.” Icahn was not on the call.

    ————————————-

     

    The Sam Zell Indicator – Time to Get Out of Real Estate?

    (Value Walk) – Talk about exquisite timing.

    Even today, a decade after the fact, the leveraged buyout of Equity Office Properties Trust remains one of the largest of all time: $36 billion for nearly 600 office buildings in New York, Washington D.C. and dozens of the nation’s largest cities.

     

    But in late 2006, some wondered if the billionaire who sold the REIT was being a little rash. After all, the real estate boom was in full swing, and the S&P 500 was primed to hit new all-time highs. “Is he cashing out too early?” asked a Bloomberg headline when the deal was announced.

    We all know the answer, of course.

     

    Billionaire Sam Zell deftly sidestepped the coming real estate carnage. Then, with prices at generational lows a few years later, Zell bought hundreds of apartment complexes at dirt-cheap prices.

     

    And today? Well, that’s the ominous part…

     

    Once again, Zell is selling his real estate holdings. Last fall, he unloaded a quarter of his portfolio, buildings totaling about 23,000 rental apartments, to Starwood Capital Group for more than $5 billion.

     

    Zell next sold off apartment buildings in South Florida and Denver, with complexes in Phoenix, Boston and other metro areas expected to be sold before the year is out.

     

    “No one has ever accused me of not being a realist,” Zell told CNBC’s talking heads recently.

    Of course for every seller there has to be a buyer, so to the extent that these guys are bearish, an equal amount of optimistic capital disagrees with their assessment. Still, between Soros, Druckenmiller, Icahn and Zell there’s about a thousand years of successful, audacious experience, so at a minimum their sudden bearishness should be a comfort to smaller players who have reached the same conclusion.

    The fact that they see gold as the antidote to crashing financial markets is also reassuring for long-suffering gold bugs.

    If these and the several other big names now saying scary things (see Bill Gross’s supernova comments) are right, the short stocks/long gold trade is finally about to pay off.

  • Workaholic? This Study Finds You May Have Other Issues

    Being a workaholic comes along with being grown up and having responsibilities (well, it comes along with it for some people). Late nights out at the bar turn into firing up the laptop and putting the finishing touches on that presentation that is due first thing in the morning, weekends that used to be filled with keggers turn into all day working sessions just to catch up on all of the emails that got missed during the week – it happens (even if one works at the US Treasury, but only on occasion don't be alarmed).

    However, there is a rather disturbing study that the World Economic Forum reported earlier in the month that may convince some to schedule that vacation that's been put off for the last decade.

    As the WEF reports, a study of 16,426 working adults in Norway found that those with workaholism are significantly more likely to have psychiatric symptoms.

    From the WEF

    Psychology researchers, led by Cecilie Schou Andreassen from the University of Bergen in Norway, found a strong link between workaholism and ADHD, OCD, anxiety, and depression. They found:

     

    -32.7% of workaholics also met ADHD criteria, compared to 12.7% of non-workaholics

     

    -25.6% of workaholics also met OCD criteria, compared to 8.7% of non-workaholics

     

    -33.8% of workaholics also met anxiety criteria, compared to 11.9% of non-workaholics

     

    -8.9% of workaholics also met depression criteria, compared to 2.6% of non-workaholics

     

    The authors speculated that there are several reasons those with ADHD might suffer workaholism, including inattentiveness forcing them to spend excess hours trying to make up work, working extra hard to counter misperceptions of laziness, or working to alleviate restlessness. For those with OCD, workaholism could become a compulsion. Meanwhile, working hard is “praised and honored in modern society,” write the authors, and so could be used as a means to counter anxiety or depression.

     

    The study, which was co-authored by researchers from Yale University and Nottingham Trent University, did not determine whether workaholism caused the psychiatric symptoms or vice versa.

    Marianna Virtanen, an epidemiologist at UCL and the Finnish Institute of Occupational Health was not involved in the study but says that many psychiatric disorders begin at a young age, they precede workaholism. "It is also possible that the association is bidirectional; workaholism may exacerbate psychiatric symptoms in the long run. It is paradoxical, however, that people may first try to cope with their symptoms by excessive working." Virtanen added.

    Those in the US and Germany have put in the most time working prior to even heading into the office.

    "Taking work to the extreme may be a sign of deeper psychological or emotional issues. Whether this reflects overlapping genetic vulnerabilities, disorders leading to workaholism or, conversely, workaholism causing such disorders, remains uncertain." said Dr. Schou Andreassen

    * * *

    Well then, since everything is still inconclusive – there is more work to be done.

  • Paul Craig Roberts On The "Frustrations Of Telling The Truth"

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    Some examples of the 'abuse' one gets when telling the truth:

    If I criticize the Israeli government for abusing Palestinians and stealing their country, the Israel Lobby accuses me of being an anti-semite who wants to repeat the holocaust. In the same batch of emails, anti-semites denounce me for being too easy on Israel and covering up for the Jewish conspiracy against mankind.

     

    When I write about the One Percent using the government to loot the economy, I receive emails blaming me because I worked for Reagan “who started it all by cutting tax rates for the rich.” These people have no conception of supply-side economics, its purpose, success, and the way it prepared the way for Reagan to negotiate the end of the Cold War. At one point in their lives they read a left-wing screed against Reagan, and that is the extent of their understanding. But they are full of blind hate.

     

    When I write about Washington’s crimes against other countries, I receive emails asking me where I was during Iran-Contra and Grenada. Apparently, they think that a Treasury official can run the State Department and Pentagon. Some of the readers are so confused that they think Reagan overthrew Allende in Chile. Alllende was overthrown in 1973. Reagan was inaugurated in 1981. It is dispiriting that there actually are people this ignorant and so proud of it that they will accuse me of helping Reagan to overthrow Allende.

     

    When I point out the dangers of the reckless folly of Washington’s aggressions against Russia, China, and the independent Muslim world, superpatriots denounce me for being anti-American. There is a stratum of the US population that thinks that it is a criminal act to disbelieve the government or to question its judgment and motives. “You are with us or against us.”

     

    When I document the death of the US Constitution and the rise of the American Police State, “law and order” conservatives admonish me that the police state only appies to terrorists and criminals and does not apply to law abiding citizens. They are convinced that Snowden and Assange are traitors, and no amount of evidence or reason can convince them otherwise. Neither can they be convinced that in the 21st century, law has become a weapon in the hands of government and no longer is a shield of the people. The Rule of Law in America is dead.

    All of my life I have confronted the vast bulk of humanity living in a false reality created by self-serving powerful interest groups and the government that they control. People believe the lies that define their reality, because they lack the education and the emotional and intellectual strength to confront the obvious lies.

    Every truth-teller confronts this barrier every day of his or her life. Every truth-teller wishes he/she could force red pills down the throat of the population.

    In American today there is nothing true that you can say that does not result in a heaving of abuse. The safe course is to repeat all the lies that come out of Washington and the presstitute media.

    To go against the Matrix, you need all of the superpowers of The One.

  • This Is What The Unprecedented Chinese M&A Scramble In America Looks Like

    The raging need for Chinese oligarchs and corporations to park their cash offshore, and as far away as possible from the the mainland and the risk of sudden, sharp (10%-15%) devaluation, has resulted in not only an epic Vancouver housing bubble, or the predicted parabolic surge in bitcoin price (which has soared by 50% in just a few weeks), but an unprecedented M&A spree for US-based assets. We profiled as much in late March in a post titled “Eight Things The Chinese Are Scrambling To Buy In America.”

    And while overall M&A in the US is down substantially YTD, sliding 28% by volume (but only 4% in number of deals) mostly as a result of the volatile market in the early part of the year as well as the chilling effect of Congressional crackdown on tax-inversion deals (such as the pulled Pfizer-Allergan mega-merger), and the lack of any blockbuster mega-cap (>$25 billion) deals, China not only refuses to go away, but the level of Chinese cross-border M&A chasing after US targets is literally off the charts.

    Here are the details from Goldman:

    Cross-border, while down in aggregate, continues to gain share at 34% of total YTD volumes (a 6-year high). While the distribution of acquirers and targets remains relatively well diversified, one trend has been increased Chinese volumes. Notably, China has accounted for 26% of global cross-border activity YTD, which is nearly 3x higher than the next highest year (2013).

     

     

    While the vast majority of US targets continue to be bought by US acquirers, there has been a trend towards international purchasers, particularly from China, in recent years (see Exhibit 5). At $28 bn YTD, US-inbound deal flow from Chinese acquirers is already a record level and nearly 2x last year’s volumes ($17 bn). On the flip side, there have been relatively few deals of US acquirers going after Chinese targets, which is a change vs. the last M&A cycle in 2004-2008. See Exhibit 6.

     

    So is it time to panic yet? No, first China has to buy Rockefeller Center, because what is taking place now is nothing that didn’t take place almost 30 years ago when Japan was likewise facing a comparable epic liquidity bubble and unleashed a massive wave of US-based acqusitions. Recall from 1989:

    Japanese Buy New York Cachet With Deal for Rockefeller Center

     

    The Rockefeller Group, the owner of Rockefeller Center, Radio City Music Hall and other mid-Manhattan office buildings, said yesterday that it had sold control of the company to the Mitsubishi Estate Company of Tokyo, one of the world’s biggest real estate developers.The deal, which comes almost exactly 50 years after Rockefeller Center opened on Nov. 1, 1939, is only the latest instance of the Japanese buying a vital piece of the American landscape, from Hollywood to Wall Street. In September, the Sony Corporation bought Columbia Pictures for $3.4 billion.

    And of course, “Japanese Buy Pebble Beach Golf Course

    The property includes four golf courses and the famous lone cypress tree, used as a Pebble Beach logo, which stands on a point of land along the scenic 17-Mile Drive around the peninsula. The deal also includes two resort hotels, the Lodge at Pebble Beach and The Inn at Spanish Bay.  ”It’s right up there in the deal-of-the-year category,” said Jack Barthell, a partner at Kenneth Leventhal, the Los Angeles-based accounting firm that specializes in real estate.

    As most know, the Japanese acquisition spree in 1990 ended with disaster, if only for the acquirors. This time will be absolutely the same, only this time it will be China that is bent over. And, more importantly, once the Japanese M&A wave ended, it has nearly 30 years of relentless contraction, deflation and demographic devastation.

    If China is next – and there is no reason the believe it won’t be now that even Goldman admits China’s total debt is somewhere in the 350% ballpark – watch out as ultra long bond yields plummets right into subzero territory, as the world finally realizes that absent helicopter money and hyperinflation, only a deflationary black hole awaits.

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Today’s News 12th June 2016

  • Economists DESTROY the Myth that War Is Good for the Economy

    Debunking the Stubborn Myth that War Is Good for the Economy

    About.com notes:

    One of the more enduring myths in Western society is that wars are somehow good for the economy.

    It is vital for policy-makers, economists and the public to have access to a definitive analysis to determine once and for all whether war is good or bad for the economy.

    That analysis is below.

    Top Economists Say War Is Bad for the Economy

    Nobel prize winning economist Paul Krugman notes:

    If you’re a modern, wealthy nation, however, war — even easy, victorious war — doesn’t pay. And this has been true for a long time. In his famous 1910 book “The Great Illusion,” the British journalist Norman Angell argued that “military power is socially and economically futile.” As he pointed out, in an interdependent world (which already existed in the age of steamships, railroads, and the telegraph), war would necessarily inflict severe economic harm even on the victor. Furthermore, it’s very hard to extract golden eggs from sophisticated economies without killing the goose in the process.

     

    We might add that modern war is very, very expensive. For example, by any estimate the eventual costs (including things like veterans’ care) of the Iraq war will end up being well over $1 trillion, that is, many times Iraq’s entire G.D.P.

     

    So the thesis of “The Great Illusion” was right: Modern nations can’t enrich themselves by waging war.

    Nobel-prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz agrees that war is bad for the economy:

    Stiglitz wrote in 2003:

    War is widely thought to be linked to economic good times. The second world war is often said to have brought the world out of depression, and war has since enhanced its reputation as a spur to economic growth. Some even suggest that capitalism needs wars, that without them, recession would always lurk on the horizon. Today, we know that this is nonsense. The 1990s boom showed that peace is economically far better than war. The Gulf war of 1991 demonstrated that wars can actually be bad for an economy.

    Stiglitz has also said that this decade’s Iraq war has been very bad for the economy. Seethis, this and this.

    Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan also said in that war is bad for the economy. In 1991, Greenspan said that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East would hurt the economy. And he made this point again in 1999:

    Societies need to buy as much military insurance as they need, but to spend more than that is to squander money that could go toward improving the productivity of the economy as a whole: with more efficient transportation systems, a better educated citizenry, and so on. This is the point that retiring Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) learned back in 1999 in a House Banking Committee hearing with then-Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. Frank asked what factors were producing our then-strong economic performance. On Greenspan’s list: “The freeing up of resources previously employed to produce military products that was brought about by the end of the Cold War.” Are you saying, Frank asked, “that dollar for dollar, military products are there as insurance … and to the extent you could put those dollars into other areas, maybe education and job trainings, maybe into transportation … that is going to have a good economic effect?” Greenspan agreed.

    Economist Dean Baker notes:

    It is often believed that wars and military spending increases are good for the economy. In fact, most economic models show that military spending diverts resources from productive uses, such as consumption and investment, and ultimately slows economic growth and reduces employment.

    Professor Emeritus of International Relations at the American University Joshua Goldstein notes:

    Recurring war has drained wealth, disrupted markets, and depressed economic growth.

     

    ***

     

    War generally impedes economic development and undermines prosperity.

    And David R. Henderson – associate professor of economics at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California and previously a senior economist with President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers – writes:

    Is military conflict really good for the economy of the country that engages in it? Basic economics answers a resounding “no.”

    The Proof Is In the Pudding

    Mike Lofgren notes:

    Military spending may at one time have been a genuine job creator when weapons were compatible with converted civilian production lines, but the days of Rosie the Riveter are long gone. [Indeed, WWII was different from current wars in many ways, and so its economic effects are not comparable to those of today’s wars.] Most weapons projects now require relatively little touch labor. Instead, a disproportionate share is siphoned into high-cost R&D (from which the civilian economy benefits little), exorbitant management expenditures, high overhead, and out-and-out padding, including money that flows back into political campaigns. A dollar appropriated for highway construction, health care, or education will likely create more jobs than a dollar for Pentagon weapons procurement.

     

    ***

     

    During the decade of the 2000s, DOD budgets, including funds spent on the war, doubled in our nation’s longest sustained post-World War II defense increase. Yet during the same decade, jobs were created at the slowest rate since the Hoover administration. If defense helped the economy, it is not evident. And just the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan added over $1.4 trillion to deficits, according to the Congressional Research Service. Whether the wars were “worth it” or merely stirred up a hornet’s nest abroad is a policy discussion for another time; what is clear is that whether you are a Keynesian or a deficit hawk, war and associated military spending are no economic panacea.

    The Washington Post noted in 2008:

    A recent paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research concludes that countries with high military expenditures during World War II showed strong economic growth following the war, but says this growth can be credited more to population growththan war spending. The paper finds that war spending had only minimal effects on per-capita economic activity.

     

    ***

     

    A historical survey of the U.S. economy from the U.S. State Department reports the Vietnam War had a mixed economic impact. The first Gulf War typically meets criticism for having pushed the United States toward a 1991 recession.

    The Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) shows that any boost from war is temporary at best. For example, while WWII provided a temporary bump in GDP, GDP then fell back to the baseline trend. After the Korean War, GDP fell below the baseline trend:

    IEP notes:

    By examining the state of the economy at each of the major conflict periods since World War II, it can be seen that the positive effects of increased military spending were outweighed by longer term unintended negative macroeconomic consequences. While the stimulatory effect of military outlays is evidently associated with boosts in economic growth, adverse effects show up either immediately or soon after, through higher inflation, budget deficits, high taxes and reductions in consumption or investment. Rectifying these effects has required subsequent painful adjustments which are neither efficient nor desirable. When an economy has excess capacity and unemployment, it is possible that increasing military spending can provide an important stimulus. However, if there are budget constraints, as there are in the U.S. currently, then excessive military spending can displace more productive non-military outlays in other areas such as investments in high-tech industries, education, or infrastructure. The crowding-out effects of disproportionate government spending on military functions can affect service delivery or infrastructure development, ultimately affecting long-term growth rates.

     

    ***

     

    Analysis of the macroeconomic components of GDP during World War II and in subsequent conflicts show heightened military spending had several adverse macroeconomic effects. These occurred as a direct consequence of the funding requirements of increased military spending. The U.S. has paid for its wars either through debt (World War II, Cold War, Afghanistan/Iraq), taxation (Korean War) or inflation (Vietnam). In each case, taxpayers have been burdened, and private sector consumption and investment have been constrained as a result. Other negative effects include larger budget deficits, higher taxes, and growth above trend leading to inflation pressure. These effects can run concurrent with major conflict or via lagging effects into the future. Regardless of the way a war is financed, the overall macroeconomic effect on the economy tends to be negative. For each of the periods after World War II, we need to ask, what would have happened in economic terms if these wars did not happen? On the specific evidence provided, it can be reasonably said, it is likely taxes would have been lower, inflation would have been lower, there would have been higher consumption and investment and certainly lower budget deficits. Some wars are necessary to fight and the negative effects of not fighting these wars can far outweigh the costs of fighting. However if there are other options, then it is prudent to exhaust them first as once wars do start, the outcome, duration and economic consequences are difficult to predict.

    We noted in 2011:

    This is a no-brainer, if you think about it. We’ve been in Afghanistan for almost twice as long as World War II. We’ve been in Iraq for years longer than WWII. We’ve been involved in 7 or 8 wars in the last decade. And yet [the economy is still unstable]. If wars really helped the economy, don’t you think things would have improved by now? Indeed,the Iraq war alone could end up costing more than World War II. And given the other wars we’ve been involved in this decade, I believe that the total price tag for the so-called “War on Terror” will definitely support that of the “Greatest War”.

    Let’s look at the adverse effects of war in more detail …

    War Spending Diverts Stimulus Away from the Real Civilian Economy

    IEP notes that – even though the government spending soared – consumption and investment were flatduring the Vietnam war:

    The New Republic noted in 2009:

    Conservative Harvard economist Robert Barro has argued that increased military spending during WWII actually depressed other parts of the economy.

    (New Republic also points out that conservative economist Robert Higgs and liberal economists Larry Summers and Brad Delong have all shown that any stimulation to the economy from World War II has been greatly exaggerated.)

    How could war actually hurt the economy, when so many say that it stimulates the economy?

    Because of what economists call the “broken window fallacy”.

    Specifically, if a window in a store is broken, it means that the window-maker gets paid to make a new window, and he, in turn, has money to pay others. However, economists long ago showed that – if the window hadn’t been broken – the shop-owner would have spent that money on other things, such as food, clothing, health care, consumer electronics or recreation, which would have helped the economy as much or more.

    If the shop-owner hadn’t had to replace his window, he might have taken his family out to dinner, which would have circulated more money to the restaurant, and from there to other sectors of the economy. Similarly, the money spent on the war effort is money that cannot be spent on other sectors of the economy. Indeed, all of the military spending has just created military jobs, at the expense of the civilian economy.

    Professor Henderson writes:

    Money not spent on the military could be spent elsewhere.This also applies to human resources. The more than 200,000 U.S. military personnel in Iraq and Afghanistan could be doing something valuable at home.

     

    Why is this hard to understand? The first reason is a point 19th-century French economic journalist Frederic Bastiat made in his essay, “What Is Seen and What Is Not Seen.” Everyone can see that soldiers are employed. But we cannot see the jobs and the other creative pursuits they could be engaged in were they not in the military.

     

    The second reason is that when economic times are tough and unemployment is high, it’s easy to assume that other jobs could not exist. But they can. This gets to an argument Bastiat made in discussing demobilization of French soldiers after Napoleon’s downfall. He pointed out that when government cuts the size of the military, it frees up not only manpower but also money. The money that would have gone to pay soldiers can instead be used to hire them as civilian workers. That can happen in three ways, either individually or in combination: (1) a tax cut; (2) a reduction in the deficit; or (3) an increase in other government spending.

     

    ***

     

    Most people still believe that World War II ended the Great Depression …. But look deeper.

     

    ***

     

    The government-spending component of GNP went for guns, trucks, airplanes, tanks, gasoline, ships, uniforms, parachutes, and labor. What do these things have in common? Almost all of them were destroyed. Not just these goods but also the military’s billions of labor hours were used up without creating value to consumers. Much of the capital and labor used to make the hundreds of thousands of trucks and jeeps and the tens of thousands of tanks and airplanes would otherwise have been producing cars and trucks for the domestic economy. The assembly lines in Detroit, which had churned out 3.6 million cars in 1941, were retooled to produce the vehicles of war. From late 1942 to 1945, production of civilian cars was essentially shut down.

     

    And that’s just one example. Women went without nylon stockings so that factories could produce parachutes. Civilians faced tight rationing of gasoline so that U.S. bombers could fly over Germany. People went without meat so that U.S. soldiers could be fed. And so on.

     

    These resources helped win the war—no small issue. But the war was not a stimulus program, either in its intentions or in its effects, and it was not necessary for pulling the U.S. out of the Great Depression. Had World War II never taken place, millions of cars would have been produced; people would have been able to travel much more widely; and there would have been no rationing. In short, by the standard measures, Americans would have been much more prosperous.

     

    Today, the vast majority of us are richer than even the most affluent people back then. But despite this prosperity, one thing has not changed: war is bad for our economy. The $150 billion that the government spends annually on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan (and, increasingly, Pakistan) could instead be used to cut taxes or cut the deficit. By ending its ongoing wars  the U.S. government  would be developing a more prosperous economy.

    Austrian economist Ludwig Von Mises points out:

    That is the essence of so-called war prosperity; it enriches some by what it takes from others. It is not rising wealth but a shifting of wealth and income.

    We noted in 2010:

    You know about America’s unemployment problem. You may have even heard that the U.S. may very well have suffered a permanent destruction of jobs.

     

    But did you know that the defense employment sector is booming?

    [P]ublic sector spending – and mainly defense spending – has accounted for virtually all of the new job creation in the past 10 years:

    The U.S. has largely been financing job creation for ten years. Specifically, as the chief economist for BusinessWeek, Michael Mandel, points out, public spending has accounted for virtually all new job creation in the past 1o years:

    Private sector job growth was almost non-existent over the past ten years. Take a look at this horrifying chart:

     

    longjobs1 The Military Industrial Complex is Ruining the Economy

     

    Between May 1999 and May 2009, employment in the private sector only rose by 1.1%, by far the lowest 10-year increase in the post-depression period.

     

    It’s impossible to overstate how bad this is. Basically speaking, the private sector job machine has almost completely stalled over the past ten years. Take a look at this chart:

     

    longjobs2 The Military Industrial Complex is Ruining the Economy

     

    Over the past 10 years, the private sector has generated roughly 1.1 million additional jobs, or about 100K per year. The public sector created about 2.4 million jobs.

     

    But even that gives the private sector too much credit. Remember that the private sector includes health care, social assistance, and education, all areas which receive a lot of government support.

     

    ***

     

    Most of the industries which had positive job growth over the past ten years were in the HealthEdGov sector. In fact, financial job growth was nearly nonexistent once we take out the health insurers.

     

    Let me finish with a final chart.

     

    longjobs4 The Military Industrial Complex is Ruining the Economy

     

    Without a decade of growing government support from rising health and education spending and soaring budget deficits, the labor market would have been flat on its back. [120]

    ***

    So most of the job creation has been by the public sector. But because the job creation has been financed with loans from China and private banks, trillions in unnecessary interest charges have been incurred by the U.S.

    And this shows military versus non-military durable goods shipments: us collapse 18 11 The Military Industrial Complex is Ruining the Economy[Click here to view full image.]

    So we’re running up our debt (which will eventually decrease economic growth), but the only jobs we’re creating are military and other public sector jobs.

     

    Economist Dean Baker points out that America’s massive military spending on unnecessary and unpopular wars lowers economic growth and increases unemployment:

    Defense spending means that the government is pulling away resources from the uses determined by the market and instead using them to buy weapons and supplies and to pay for soldiers and other military personnel. In standard economic models, defense spending is a direct drain on the economy, reducing efficiency, slowing growth and costing jobs.

    A few years ago, the Center for Economic and Policy Research commissioned Global Insight, one of the leading economic modeling firms, to project the impact of a sustained increase in defense spending equal to 1.0 percentage point of GDP. This was roughly equal to the cost of the Iraq War.

     

    Global Insight’s model projected that after 20 years the economy would be about 0.6 percentage points smaller as a result of the additional defense spending. Slower growth would imply a loss of almost 700,000 jobs compared to a situation in which defense spending had not been increased. Construction and manufacturing were especially big job losers in the projections, losing 210,000 and 90,000 jobs, respectively.

     

    The scenario we asked Global Insight [recognized as the most consistentlyaccurate forecasting company in the world] to model turned out to have vastly underestimated the increase in defense spending associated with current policy. In the most recent quarter, defense spending was equal to 5.6 percent of GDP. By comparison, before the September 11th attacks, the Congressional Budget Office projected that defense spending in 2009 would be equal to just 2.4 percent of GDP. Our post-September 11th build-up was equal to 3.2 percentage points of GDP compared to the pre-attack baseline. This means that the Global Insight projections of job loss are far too low…

     

    The projected job loss from this increase in defense spending would be close to 2 million. In other words, the standard economic models that project job loss from efforts to stem global warming also project that the increase in defense spending since 2000 will cost the economy close to 2 million jobs in the long run.

    The Political Economy Research Institute at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst has also shown that non-military spending creates more jobs than military spending.

    High Military Spending Drains Innovation, Investment and Manufacturing Strength from the Civilian Economy

    Chalmers Johnson notes that high military spending diverts innovation and manufacturing capacity from the economy:

    By the 1960s it was becoming apparent that turning over the nation’s largest manufacturing enterprises to the Department of Defense and producing goods without any investment or consumption value was starting to crowd out civilian economic activities. The historian Thomas E Woods Jr observes that, during the 1950s and 1960s, between one-third and two-thirds of all US research talent was siphoned off into the military sector. It is, of course, impossible to know what innovations never appeared as a result of this diversion of resources and brainpower into the service of the military, but it was during the 1960s that we first began to notice Japan was outpacing us in the design and quality of a range of consumer goods, including household electronics and automobiles.

     

    ***

     

    Woods writes: “According to the US Department of Defense, during the four decades from 1947 through 1987 it used (in 1982 dollars) $7.62 trillion in capital resources. In 1985, the Department of Commerce estimated the value of the nation’s plant and equipment, and infrastructure, at just over $7.29 trillion… The amount spent over that period could have doubled the American capital stock or modernized and replaced its existing stock”.

     

    The fact that we did not modernise or replace our capital assets is one of the main reasons why, by the turn of the 21st century, our manufacturing base had all but evaporated. Machine tools, an industry on which Melman was an authority, are a particularly important symptom. In November 1968, a five-year inventory disclosed “that 64% of the metalworking machine tools used in US industry were 10 years old or older. The age of this industrial equipment (drills, lathes, etc.) marks the United States’ machine tool stock as the oldest among all major industrial nations, and it marks the continuation of a deterioration process that began with the end of the second world war. This deterioration at the base of the industrial system certifies to the continuous debilitating and depleting effect that the military use of capital and research and development talent has had on American industry.”

    Economist Robert Higgs makes the same point about World War II:

    Yes, officially measured GDP soared during the war. Examination of that increased output shows, however, that it consisted entirely of military goods and services. Real civilian consumption and private investment both fell after 1941, and they did not recover fully until 1946. The privately owned capital stock actually shrank during the war. Some prosperity. (My article in the peer-reviewed Journal of Economic History, March 1992, presents many of the relevant details.)

     

    It is high time that we come to appreciate the distinction between the government spending, especially the war spending, that bulks up official GDP figures and the kinds of production that create genuine economic prosperity. As Ludwig von Mises wrote in the aftermath of World War I, “war prosperity is like the prosperity that an earthquake or a plague brings.”

    War Causes Austerity

    Economic historian Julian Adorney argues:

    Hitler’s rearmament program was military Keynesianism on a vast scale. Hermann Goering, Hitler’s economic administrator, poured every available resource into making planes, tanks, and guns. In 1933 German military spending was 750 million Reichsmarks. By 1938 it had risen to 17 billion with 21 percent of GDP was taken up by military spending. Government spending all told was 35 percent of Germany’s GDP.

     

    ***

     

    No-one could say that Hitler’s rearmament program was too small. Economists expected it to create a multiplier effect and jump-start a flagging economy. Instead, it produced military wealth while private citizens starved.

     

    ***

     

    The people routinely suffered shortages. Civilian wood and iron were rationed. Small businesses, from artisans to carpenters to cobblers, went under. Citizens could barely buy pork, and buying fat to make a luxury like a cake was impossible. Rationing and long lines at the central supply depots the Nazis installed became the norm.

     

    Nazi Germany proves that curing unemployment should not be an end in itself.

    War Causes Inflation … Which Keynes and Bernanke Admit Taxes Consumers

    As we noted in 2010, war causes inflation … which hurts consumers:

    Liberal economist James Galbraith wrote in 2004:

    Inflation applies the law of the jungle to war finance. Prices and profits rise, wages and their purchasing power fall. Thugs, profiteers and the well connected get rich. Working people and the poor make out as they can. Savings erode, through the unseen mechanism of the “inflation tax” — meaning that the government runs a big deficit in nominal terms, but a smaller one when inflation is factored in.

     

    ***

     

    There is profiteering. Firms with monopoly power usually keep some in reserve. In wartime, if the climate is permissive, they bring it out and use it. Gas prices can go up when refining capacity becomes short — due partly to too many mergers. More generally, when sales to consumers are slow, businesses ought to cut prices — but many of them don’t. Instead, they raise prices to meet their income targets and hope that the market won’t collapse.

    Ron Paul agreed in 2007:

    Congress and the Federal Reserve Bank have a cozy, unspoken arrangement that makes war easier to finance. Congress has an insatiable appetite for new spending, but raising taxes is politically unpopular. The Federal Reserve, however, is happy to accommodate deficit spending by creating new money through the Treasury Department. In exchange, Congress leaves the Fed alone to operate free of pesky oversight and free of political scrutiny. Monetary policy is utterly ignored in Washington, even though the Federal Reserve system is a creation of Congress.

     

    The result of this arrangement is inflation. And inflation finances war.

    Blanchard Economic Research pointed out in 2001:

    War has a profound effect on the economy, our government and its fiscal and monetary policies. These effects have consistently led to high inflation.

     

    ***

     

    David Hackett Fischer is a Professor of History and Economic History at Brandeis. [H]is book, The Great Wave, Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History … finds that … periods of high inflation are caused by, and cause, a breakdown in order and a loss of faith in political institutions. He also finds that war is a triggering influence on inflation, political disorder, social conflict and economic disruption.

     

    ***

     

    Other economists agree with Professor Fischer’s link between inflation and war.

     

    James Grant, the respected editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, supplies us with the most timely perspective on the effect of war on inflation in the September 14 issue of his newsletter:

    “War is inflationary. It is always wasteful no matter how just the cause. It is cost without income, destruction financed (more often than not) by credit creation. It is the essence of inflation.”

    Libertarian economics writer Lew Rockwell noted in 2008:

    You can line up 100 professional war historians and political scientists to talk about the 20th century, and not one is likely to mention the role of the Fed in funding US militarism. And yet it is true: the Fed is the institution that has created the money to fund the wars. In this role, it has solved a major problem that the state has confronted for all of human history. A state without money or a state that must tax its citizens to raise money for its wars is necessarily limited in its imperial ambitions. Keep in mind that this is only a problem for the state. It is not a problem for the people. The inability of the state to fund its unlimited ambitions is worth more for the people than every kind of legal check and balance. It is more valuable than all the constitutions every devised.

     

    ***

     

    Reflecting on the calamity of this war, Ludwig von Mises wrote in 1919

    One can say without exaggeration that inflation is an indispensable means of militarism. Without it, the repercussions of war on welfare become obvious much more quickly and penetratingly; war weariness would set in much earlier.***

    In the entire run-up to war, George Bush just assumed as a matter of policy that it was his decision alone whether to invade Iraq. The objections by Ron Paul and some other members of Congress and vast numbers of the American population were reduced to little more than white noise in the background. Imagine if he had to raise the money for the war through taxes. It never would have happened. But he didn’t have to. He knew the money would be there. So despite a $200 billion deficit, a $9 trillion debt, $5 trillion in outstanding debt instruments held by the public, a federal budget of $3 trillion, and falling tax receipts in 2001, Bush contemplated a war that has cost $525 billion dollars — or $4,681 per household. Imagine if he had gone to the American people to request that. What would have happened? I think we know the answer to that question. And those are government figures; the actual cost of this war will be far higher — perhaps $20,000 per household.

     

    ***

     

    If the state has the power and is asked to choose between doing good and waging war, what will it choose? Certainly in the American context, the choice has always been for war.

    And progressive economics writer Chris Martenson explains as part of his “Crash Course” on economics:

    If we look at the entire sweep of history, we can make an utterly obvious claim: All wars are inflationary. Period. No exceptions.

     

    ***

     

    So if anybody tries to tell you that you haven’t sacrificed for the war, let them know you sacrificed a large portion of your savings and your paycheck to the effort, thank you very much.

    The bottom line is that war always causes inflation, at least when it is funded through money-printing instead of a pay-as-you-go system of taxes and/or bonds. It might be great for a handful of defense contractors, but war is bad for Main Street, stealing wealth from people by making their dollars worth less.

    Given that John Maynard Keynes and former Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke both say that inflation is a tax on the American people, war-induced inflation is a theft of our wealth.

    IEP gives a graphic example – the Vietnam war helping to push inflation through the roof:

    War Causes Runaway Debt

    We noted in 2010:

    All of the spending on unnecessary wars adds up.

     

    The U.S. is adding trillions to its debt burden to finance its multiple wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, etc.

    Indeed, IEP – commenting on the war in Afghanistan and Iraq – notes:

    This was also the first time in U.S. history where taxes were cut during a war which then resulted in both wars completely financed by deficit spending. A loose monetary policy was also implemented while interest rates were kept low and banking regulations were relaxed to stimulate the economy. All of these factors have contributed to the U.S. having severe unsustainable structural imbalances in its government finances.

    We also pointed out in 2010:

    It is ironic that America’s huge military spending is what made us an empire … but our huge military is what is bankrupting us … thus destroying our status as an empire.

    Economist Michel Chossudovsky told Washington’s Blog:

    War always causes recession. Well, if it is a very short war, then it may stimulate the economy in the short-run. But if there is not a quick victory and it drags on, then wars always put the nation waging war into a recession and hurt its economy.

    (and remember Greenspan’s comment.)

    It’s not just civilians saying this …

    The former head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff – Admiral Mullen – agrees:

    The Pentagon needs to cut back on spending.

     

    “We’re going to have to do that if it’s going to survive at all,” Mullen said, “and do it in a way that is predictable.”

    Indeed, Mullen said:

    For industry and adequate defense funding to survive … the two must work together. Otherwise, he added, “this wave of debt” will carry over from year to year, and eventually, the defense budget will be cut just to facilitate the debt.

    Former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates agrees as well. As David Ignatius wrote in the Washington Post in 2010:

    After a decade of war and financial crisis, America has run up debts that pose a national security problem, not just an economic one.

     

    ***

     

    One of the strongest voices arguing for fiscal responsibility as a national security issue has been Defense Secretary Bob Gates. He gave a landmark speech in Kansas on May 8, invoking President Dwight Eisenhower’s warnings about the dangers of an imbalanced military-industrial state.

     

    “Eisenhower was wary of seeing his beloved republic turn into a muscle-bound, garrison state — militarily strong, but economically stagnant and strategically insolvent,” Gates said. He warned that America was in a “parlous fiscal condition” and that the “gusher” of military spending that followed Sept. 11, 2001, must be capped. “We can’t have a strong military if we have a weak economy,” Gates told reporters who covered the Kansas speech.

     

    On Thursday the defense secretary reiterated his pitch that Congress must stop shoveling money at the military, telling Pentagon reporters: “The defense budget process should no longer be characterized by ‘business as usual’ within this building — or outside of it.”

    While war might make a handful in the military-industrial complex and big banks rich, America’s top military leaders and economists say that would be a very bad idea for the American people.

    Indeed, military strategists have known for 2,500 years that prolonged wars are disastrous for the nation.

    War Increases Inequality … And Inequality Hurts the Economy

    Mainstream economists now admit that runaway inequality destroys the economy.

    War is great for the super-rich, but horrible for everyone else. Defense contractors, Congress membersand bankers love war, because they make huge profits from financing war.

    Pulitzer prize winning New York Times reporter James Risen notes that the so-called war on terror has caused “one of the largest transfers of wealth from public to private hands in American history,” and created a new class of war profiteers which Risen calls “the oligarchs of 9/11.”

    War Increases Terrorism … And Terrorism Hurts the Economy

    Security experts – conservative hawks and liberal doves alike – agree that waging war in the Middle Eastweakens national security and increases terrorism. See this, this, this, this, this, this and this.

    Terrorism – in turn – terrorism is bad for the economy. Specifically, a study by Harvard and the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) points out:

    From an economic standpoint, terrorism has been described to have four main effects (see, e.g., US Congress, Joint Economic Committee, 2002). First, the capital stock (human and physical) of a country is reduced as a result of terrorist attacks. Second, the terrorist threat induces higher levels of uncertainty. Third, terrorism promotes increases in counter-terrorism expenditures, drawing resources from productive sectors for use in security. Fourth, terrorism is known to affect negatively specific industries such as tourism.

    The Harvard/NBER concludes:

    In accordance with the predictions of the model, higher levels of terrorist risks are associated with lower levels of net foreign direct investment positions, even after controlling for other types of country risks. On average, a standard deviation increase in the terrorist risk is associated with a fall in the net foreign direct investment position of about 5 percent of GDP.

    So the more unnecessary wars American launches and the more innocent civilians we kill, the less foreign investment in America, the more destruction to our capital stock, the higher the level of uncertainty, the more counter-terrorism expenditures and the less expenditures in more productive sectors, and the greater the hit to tourism and some other industries. Moreover:

    Terrorism has contributed to a decline in the global economy (for example, European Commission, 2001).

    So military adventurism increases terrorism which hurts the world economy. And see this.

    Attacking a country which controls the flow of oil also has special impacts on the economy. For example, well-known economist Nouriel Roubini says that attacking Iran would lead to global recession. The IMF says that Iran cutting off oil supplies could raise crude prices 30%.

    War Destroys Freedom … Which, In Turn, Destroys the Economy

    A permanent war economy destroys our freedoms.

    In turn, loss of liberty is horrible for the economy.

    War Causes Us to Lose Friends … And Influence

    While World War II – the last “good war” – may have gained us friends, launching military aggression is now losing America friends, influence and prosperity.

    For example, the U.S. has launched Cold War 2.0 – casting Russia and China as evil empires – and threatening them in numerous way. For example, the U.S. broke its promise not to encircle Russia, and isusing Ukraine to threaten Russia; and the U.S. is backing Japan in a hot dispute over remote islands, and backing Vietnam in its confrontations with China.

    And U.S. statements that any country that challenge U.S. military – or even economic – hegemony will be attacked are extremely provocative.

    This is causing Russia to launch a policy of “de-dollarization”, which China is joining in. This could lead to the collapse of the petrodollar.

  • Economic Collapse Will Serve One Purpose: "Global Governance And The Enslavement Of Mankind"

    Submitted by Jeremiah Johnson (nom de plume of a retired Green Beret of the United States Army Special Forces (Airborne)) via SHTFPlan.com,

    The ever-tightening noose around the neck of man shows no sign of slippage: all actions by all of the governments are anent control and dominion.  The path to global governance is plainly marked, visible through all of the turmoil.  It is that turmoil, those “incidents” that are created and fostered by the governments that enable them to further constrict the noose.  The economy plummets in Cyprus and Greece?  Time to limit the cash withdrawals.  The European banks are having a “hard time” in places such as France or Spain?  Time to pillage people’s savings and their IRA’s.

    Manufactured crises are the norm, not the exception, and all of them are designed to facilitate one purpose: global governance and the enslavement of mankind.

    The Bilderbergers are meeting in Germany this week.  Paul Joseph Watson of Alex Jones’ Prison Planet reported on some of the key issues they will be discussing, as such:

    “…the creation of a virtual passport that web users will need to obtain before they can use many Internet services is high on the agenda.  The Internet ID will be justified under the guise of “cybersecurity” and creating a convenient method for citizens to access government services, but free speech advocates will view the proposal with deep suspicion as it would threaten online anonymity and possibly chill dissent. Services such as Facebook, YouTube and Twitter could also use the online passport to revoke posting permission if a user violates terms of agreement, another obvious threat to the free flow of information that has made the web what it is today.  Bilderberg globalists are also set to re-invigorate momentum behind another long term goal – a global tax system presided over by the UN.”

     

    Bilderberg Leak: Secretive Group to Discuss Internet ID, Global Tax, By Paul Joseph Watson

    These things are not new, in that they have been proposed before.  Just as with anything that is repeated long enough, however, the reiteration has dulled the senses of most.  The bad thing is that it is being acted upon.  A report by Tarun Wadwha last week described the inculcation of facial recognition software and the use of over 250 million cameras worldwide with the capability of utilizing this software.

    250 million cameras.  That would equal a camera for every 30 people.

    The article went on to detail how in Russia an application called FindFace has come out, the invention of two young entrepreneurs.  This application enables you to track down and identify virtually anyone; the app is building a database as we speak, and it is a matter of time before it expands outside of Russia to Europe and eventually the United States.  The article went on to detail some of the following measures used in the U.S. and Europe in the manner of the movie “Minority Report” with Tom Cruise as such:

    “Microsoft Corp. has patented technology that can allow a billboard to determine who you are and show you personalized advertisements. British authorities are using facial recognition at music festivals to spot troublemakers, while brick-and-mortar stores worldwide are racing to adopt the technology to track loyal customers. Even some high schools and churches have started to use facial recognition to take attendance.”                          

    source: Opinion: Facial recognition will soon end your anonymity

    We see it being inserted into our society and the societies in the world: the surveillance state.  We see the deliberate and intentional collapses of the economies worldwide, the shifting of assets into the hands of those who control the strings either via legislation and “authority” (governments) or monetarily and economically (corporations and banks/bankers).  The daily decline in freedom of speech and the freedom to challenge the establishment…on anything, no matter how minute or obscure…is the rule, not the exception.

    In order for the global governance to occur, each “sphere of influence” such as parallel’s Orwell’s “1984” and the super-states must control its respective sphere absolutely.  Because of the homogeneity of ethnicity that accompanies each area, overlap is not possible from a perspective of control.  But if the spheres of influence are “aligned” at least in purpose and levels of totalitarian control, then an effective balance can be maintained.  Then (to paraphrase Alinsky) it can be a matter of “organizing the organized” with “controllers” who oversee the governments/regimes of all of the spheres without any of the people (the enslaved) ever knowing.

    We are heading into a very dark time…a time where technology will be used to enslave, not enlighten or uplift mankind.  The new dark ages are almost upon us.  It will require nothing less than a world war or a complete global economic collapse (orchestrated, in both cases) to destroy the last vestiges of self-governance and law that exist for us.  The time to put a stop to it is now, before the power base of the elite becomes so strong that individuals cannot withstand it.  The time to rebel against it is now, while we still have the chance before that boot tramples the face of humanity…forever.

  • UNSEALED: Tran vs Wells Fargo – DOJ Declines to Intervene, Banks Continue to Foreclose with Impunity

    Wells Fargo

    “Please remember when you come across a situation where we have a lost contract, deed, any type of document, really, but especially when It relates to securing a property, we are not to share that with the customer”
    ~
    Regards, Wells Fargo, Your Friendly Neighborhood Banker

    ~

    UNSEALED: Tran vs Wells Fargo Qui Tam – DOJ Declines to Intervene, Banks Continue to Foreclose with Impunity

    First, last month, from The Oregonian:

    A Damascus man claims he was terminated by Wells Fargo & Co. in 2014 after he discovered the bank was repeatedly collecting on mortgage loans for which it did not have the proper documentation. When Duke Tran, 54, complained about the practice, he claims he was told to lie to customers. When he resisted, the bank fired him in November 2014, Tran said. In a whistleblower lawsuit unsealed a week ago, Tran claims Wells also defrauded the U.S. government. He argues the bank illegally collected hundreds of millions of dollars in federal foreclosure-prevention funding for loans the bank knew lacked proper documentation.

    And of course, Wells Fargo denies any wrongdoing…

    Tran’s wrenching transition from happy 10-year veteran at Wells Fargo to self-proclaimed whistleblower began in December 2013 when he fielded a call from a couple terrified they were going to get foreclosed out of their home. They were overdue on their second mortgage and Wells Fargo was demanding a balloon payment. Tran, who worked at the bank’s Beaverton call center, checked and checked again. He claims he could find no trace of the couple’s loan in the bank’s computer system and he told the couple so.

    So what happened when he alerted his superiors?

    Tran says his bosses were not happy. Three months later, on April 21, 2014, Tran and the rest of his team received an email from a supervisor telling them that full disclosure was a bad idea. “Please remember when you come across a situation where we have a lost contract, deed, any type of document, really, but especially when It relates to securing a property, we are not to share that with the customer,” reads the email, which Tran submitted into the court file.

    Tran was troubled. The first-generation Vietnamese-American and volunteer in the US Army Reserve considered it illegal and unethical for the bank to threaten foreclosure when it didn’t have the mortgage contract in question. “The company told me to lie about that,” he said in an interview. “I don’t think that’s right, for the customers, for the company or the entire country.”

    Now, let’s take a look at the unsealed complaint for more details …

    SUMMARY OF CASE

    Duke Tran was a humble, hardworking family man, who had overcome many obstacles to establish himself in the banking industry. Tran was honest and forthright. He had worked at Wells Fargo for over 10 years as a model employee in its home equity department.

    In 2014, Tran began to ask questions after stumbling upon a secret Wells Fargo policy that he felt compromised his personal ethics and violated the laws governing mortgage servicing.

    Wells Fargo’s internal policy required its employees to unfairly deceive its customers, and the United States, as to the quality of Wells Fargo’s loan documents, in violation of American common law, the Dodd-Frank Act, and Oregon’s Unfair Trade Practices Act.

    When Tran continued to express concerns about its secret policy, Wells Fargo began a campaign designed to discredit Tran and ultimately force him out of the company. Wells Fargo illegally retaliated against Tran throughout 2014 and wrongfully terminated his employment on November 12, 2014.

    Now, having no other choice to make things right, Tran files this complaint to recover fair compensation for Wells Fargo’s retaliation and wrongful termination. Tran also seeks to take back over $1.4 billion on behalf of the American taxpayers; paid by the United States on account of Wells Fargo’s unfair deceptive mortgages practices.

    FACTUAL ALLEGATIONS: Wrongful Termination

    On or around March 10, 2013, Tran transferred to the position of Home Equity Customer Service Specialist 4 in the home equity department.

    Most calls that Tran received involved customers who had received letters from Wells Fargo indicating their mortgage balloon payments were due within 90 days, and that if they did not pay, their accounts would be referred to collections for foreclosure. When Wells Fargo received calls from customers with balloon payments due, its policy was to offer its customers financial products to avoid foreclosure, including HAMP loan modifications.

    In or around December of 2013, Tran received the first of what would be many similar phone calls. A husband and wife with an alleged balloon mortgage payment due called Wells Fargo and spoke with Tran. When Tran looked in the Clipper system for their loan contract he realized it was missing or nonexistent, and reported this to them.

    Tran promptly reported the issue with the customers to his supervisor and others within Wells Fargo. The next day, Tran received multiple emails from Wells Fargo headquarters that the loan documents were missing and that the company did not have the customers’ contract. Despite this, Wells Fargo directed Tran to deceive the customers and treat the loan like a balloon payment was due.

    The next day, LeDonne met with Tran and berated Tran for telling the customers the truth about their loan documents. LeDonne told Tran that Tran’s job was in jeopardy and that Tran had placed Wells Fargo at risk by providing this information to the customers. LeDonne went on to say that Janice Norris (“Norris”) and Vice President Lending Manager, Debbie Clausen (“Clausen”) had directed that Tran have no more contact with these customers.

    From then on, Tran received many more calls from customers whose loan documents were missing or nonexistent. Tran began to notice many of the loans with missing documents had been acquired by Wells Fargo from First Union or Sun Trust Bank. As he was directed, whenever customers called in and Wells Fargo’s loan documents were missing, Tran sent the matter to a supervisor.

    On or around March 4, 2014, Tran received a call from a co-worker from Iowa. The coworker asked Tran about the customers Tran told that Wells Fargo had no loan documents for their loan. The customers had called for an update on their loan. Tran reported that he had referred the customers to his supervisors. Tran then asked his team lead, Heather Stone (“Stone”), about the issue. Stone told Tran that she planned to follow-up with the customers but it appeared they had hired an attorney.

    Later that same day, Tran was called in to meet with his supervisor, LeDonne. When Iran walked into his office, LeDonne immediately blew up at him. LeDonne told Iran, “See, I told you before that we’ll get sued and now they’ve hired an attorney!” LeDonne threatened Iran that he would be fired if he ever told another customer the truth about missing or nonexistent loan documents.

    On or around April 21, 2014, Tran received an email about a Wells Fargo internal policy stating that when Wells Fargo has lost loan documents, especially those securing a home, employees are to not share this information with customers under any circumstance.

    “Please remember when you come across a situation where we have a lost contract, deed, any type of document, really, but especially when It relates to securing a property, we are not to share that with the customer.”

    Tran was immediately uncomfortable with this secret internal policy and went to LeDonne to discuss it. Tran stressed that it was not right or legal to lie to customers. LeDonne cut Iran off and told him that the policy directive came from his boss, Kimberly Thrush (“Thrush”), and senior management.

    A lot more goes on from here, see complaint for much more detail, before Mr Tran is fired for failing to say “hello.”

    On or around November 12, 2014, Tran had a second interview with another unit within Wells Fargo. The interview was for the same day and LeDonne again refused Tran’s request for time off for the interview. Before Tran was able to resolve the issue again LeDonne called Tran in to discuss a customer call. LeDonne told Tran he was being investigated for “misbehavior” in that he did not say “hello” to a customer at the onset of the call. Tran asked to hear the phone call but LeDonne refused. LeDonne told Tran they would meet with the rest of the management team at the end of the day.

    Later that day, Tran was called into a meeting with LeDonne, Thrush, and Norris. LeDonne told Tran that based on the misbehavior they discussed earlier, Wells Fargo was terminating his employment. LeDonne then stood up and told Tran he needed to escort him out of the building.

    FACTUAL ALLEGATIONS: Defrauding the Government

    Wells Fargo’s policy of unfair deception negatively affected not only its employees and customers but also the American taxpayers. From 2009 until March 31, 2015, the United States paid out over $1.4 billion in HAMP incentives based on Wells Fargo loan modification applications. As of the date of this complaint, Wells Fargo has completed more than a million mortgage modifications through HAMP. Of the $1.4 billion paid based on Wells Fargo applications, only a relatively small fraction ($246,871,173.00) went to Wells Fargo’s customers. The largest portions went directly to corporate investors ($825,776,921.00) and Wells Fargo ($359,151,497.00).

    Many of Wells Fargo’s HAMP modifications, including some of the loans Tran was involved with, were based on materially false representations made by Wells Fargo about the quality of its mortgage loan documents.

    Wells Fargo fraudulently used the HAMP modification process to turn incomplete loan files into enforceable mortgages. Wells Fargo intentionally misled its customers and the United States by failing to disclose known material defects in its loan documents. Specifically, Wells Fargo’s secret internal policy involved deceiving customers and the United States when Wells Fargo knew or suspected its loan files were missing documents.

    Just another day in the Good Ol’ USA.

    Full complaint and the DOJ’s order declining to intervene below… 

    www.4closureFraud.org

     

     

     

  • This Won't End Well – US Asset Managers Target Australia's $1.5 Trillion Pension Funds

    Hedge funds attracted a net $44 billion in assets globally last year, the smallest amount since 2012. As these increasingly desperate funds try to change that in 2016, one enormous target has been identified in Australia.

    Australia has approximately USD$1.5 trillion in retirement savings, one of the largest and fastest growing pools of pension money in the world according to the WSJ. Several US asset managers are already actively working to get a foot in the door, even though management fees charged in Australia are among the world's lowest according to local lobby group Financial Services Council.

    "Everyone wants to get their hands on that pie. People think there's a lot of money to be made in Australia" said Jesse Huang, director for strategic relations Boston based hedge fund PanAgora Asset Management

    Other than the potential to grow AUM, the fact that Australian funds doubled their holdings of alternative assets between 2009 and 2015 has funds salivating to set up shop.

    Australian funds doubled their holdings of alternative assets—ranging from venture capital and private equity to hedge-fund investments—to an average of 8% of their portfolios between 2009 and 2015, according to Morningstar. Inflows have been especially strong over the past two years. Including infrastructure and property, Australian funds now hold about 20% of their assets outside of traditional investments such as stocks, bonds and cash.

    Additionally, a recent survey by State Street showed two-thirds of Australian pension funds plan to boost their exposure to hedge funds over the next three years.

    Overseas funds are putting talent on the ground because Australia is "not an easy market to enter. It's complex and highly concentrated, buyers are sophisticated and competition is fierce. Players who only come here to push product are bound to fail" said Anthony James, a partner at PwC in Sydney.

    Potential clients can be tough to convince said Damian Crowley, head of distribution with Pengana Capital, a boutique Sydney fund management firm, adding that some investors "think hedge funds caused the global financial crisis." Alas, if investors have that mindset now, wait until hedge funds tie up pension funds in a bunch of high risk, highly illiquid positions just as the market sells off.

    MLC, one of the largest pension funds in Australia has increased its alternative exposure by nearly 40% over the past three years, most notably to PE and energy futures, but CIO Jonathan Armitage says the A$62 billion fund is "picky."

    "Our starting point is deep, deep skepticism. We make sure we only buy what we understand." Armitage said

    That fact that it's a tough market to enter is not deterring some firms from moving forward however. Oaktree Capital Management, who invests in commercial mortgages and distressed debt opened up a branch in Australia in March, TIAA Global Asset Management opened a Sydney office last year, and Chicago based Northern Trust also set up a Sydney office, along with a sales team in Melbourne to offer full asset-management services to pension funds.

    The shift in asset allocation undoubtedly comes from the fact that safer investment strategies are no longer an option for managers trying to generate returns, thanks to central banks going absolutely insane and driving over $10 trillion of sovereign debt into negative yields (soon to be done with corporate debt as well as Mario accelerates the global collapse to light speed with the ECBs new program).

    Recall that now fixed income is yielding so little, that to earn a return of 7.5% investors would have to construct a portfolio that has nearly 3x the risk than it did in 1995. This is causing pension funds to risk even more to find yield, and thus the increased allocation to alternative assets.

    Hedge funds aren't just targeting the big fish of course, retail investors are also on the radar for those looking to get into Australia.

    While foreign hedge funds are eager to target big institutional investors, they are also pitching hard to retail investors—in particular the growing number of Australians, nicknamed “selfies,” who manage their own pension savings. Such investors control about a third of Australia’s retirement assets.

     

    PanAgora, which makes money through complex trading strategies from high-speed algorithmic trading to leveraged short selling, offers one of its funds to mom-and-pop investors here in conjunction with Pengana Capital, a boutique Sydney fund-management firm. Among the more unusual data PanAgora mines to form its trading strategy: thousands of lost-baggage claims for potential signs of poor airline management.

    * * *

    Ah yes, hedge funds who introduce complex trading strategies to mom and pop investors and massive pension funds – what could possibly go wrong there?

  • Bitcoin Spikes Above $600 – 2 Year Highs – On Sudden Massive Chinese Buying

    Once again, on a Saturday night (US time), Sunday morning (China) a sudden burst of buying pressure in Bitcoin, driven by Chinese buyers, has spiked the virtual currency higher on dramatic volume. With Bitcoin now trading at its highest level since May 2014 (in Yuan), and up 250% since we first suggested this an outlet for desperate-to-leave capital outflows in September, we note that the 'arbitrage' of over 150 Yuan points to massively more demand from Chinese buyers for now.

    Another weekend buying-splosion in Bitcoin by The Chinese…

     

    It appears, just as we initailly warned here, that more than a few of the few hundred million Chinese have decided that the time has come to use bitcoin as the capital controls bypassing currency of choice, and decided to invest even a tiny fraction of the $22 trillion in Chinese deposits… 

     

    … in bitcoin (whose total market cap at last check was just over $3 billion), sit back and watch as we witness the second coming of the bitcoin bubble, one which could make the previous all time highs in the digital currency, seems like a low print.

    And once again tonight, that panic selling of Yuan for Bitcoin has sent it surging in the last few hours, now above $600…

     

    This pushes Bitcoin to 2 year highs priced in USDollars…

     

    And once again it appears the dominant buyer is in China (OKCoin exchange – which reportedly has 90% of global Bitcoin traffic). This is the highest 'China' Bitcoin price since May 2014

     

    Notably with Bitcoin trading 4187CNY and 615USD (with USDCNY at 6.5624), China Bitcoin is trading around 150 Yuan rich to Dollar Bitcoin (once again suggesting strong demand from Chinese buyers).

    Both Gold and Bitcoin have been rising since we first warned of the surge in Chinese capital outflows but the virtual currency has dramatically outperformed…

     

    Charts: BitcoinWisdom

  • Rapper Who Threatened To Kill Trump If "Momma's Food Stamps Are Taken Away" Arrested For Stealing Guns

    There was much amusement three weeks ago, when Louisiana rapper Maine Musik said in a YouTube video recording that he would kill republican presidential candidate Donald Trump if his “Mamma’s food stamps are taken away.”

    I could go to war with whoever the fuck I want to, but I really want to go to war with Donald Trump because Donald Trump trying to take food stamps from my mamma and that’s all the fuck she’s got. As long as the motherfucking government let us keep food stamps… we gonna be good, but the first time this nigga pass a law talking about he taking Louisiana purchase, shit going to get ugly.  I swear to god on every motherfucking chain I got, bitchez gonna go down. You gotta understand them (inaudible) love Fruit Loops. They love that shit so if you take that shit nigga it’s coming with the madness and a nigga ain’t gonna play about that.  Y’all take Donald Trump and let him know it’s up over here. We gonna declare war.

    As we reported at the time, shortly after the “rapper” recorded this threat, he was visited by police for posting another video to his Instagram account on May 15, where he and his gang showed off a stockpile of weapons.

    That’s when Maine Musik’s, whose real name is Demarcus Davis, problems really started, ironically not under president Trump, but Obama. The true culprit, however, was neither the current president nor a potential future one, but Demarcus’ own unprecedented stupidity.

    As it turns out in the second video, “Musik” and at least eight other people can be seen brandishing a number of weapons, including rifles, pistols and a sawed-off shotgun, reports Baton Rouge ABC affiliate WBRZ.  According to police, all of the guns visible in the video appear to match makes/models of firearms that were reported stolen by a local fun shop. The Baton Rouge Police Department reported the burglary at Meaux Guns & Ammo, located in the 9600 block of Mammouth Drive, on July 6 of last year. At the time of the report, dozens of firearms were reported stolen. Among those guns was a Ruger 10/22 Krinker Plinker.

    When authorities examined Musik’s video, they noticed similarities between the weapons being waved around and weapons that had been stolen. A Baton Rouge police spokesman told the outlet that a stolen Ruger being brandished in the video was particularly easy to identify because it had been customized before it was stolen.

    Detectives said they were also able to locate the suspect by using a house number and street name visible in the video. A search of Davis’ public Facebook account turned up a photo of the rapper holding the Ruger pistol that was reported stolen. The gun featured numerous customizations and modifications that made it distinctive and easy to spot, according to BRPD.

    Davis was initially brought in for questioning concerning his social media posts and videos after he was arrested and booked for failing to stop at a stop sign while in possession of Drank, a purple liquid identified as codeine syrup. He would also be booked on a charge of possession of a Schedule V CDS in addition to the above gun charges.

    Former Sons of Guns reality TV star Joe Meaux, who owns Meaux Guns and Ammo, told Fox News that he realized the firearms being waved around by Davis were his after watching a video titled “Rapper Threatens Trump” online. “As I’m watching it, I’m thinking these guns are very recognizable,” Meaux told Fox News. “As I watched more, I realized that they were very familiar. They were stolen from me last year. We do a lot of custom work,” he added. “There was one AK-47 copy built from a .22 I identified. Everything from the optic to the way the sling was placed was all very identifiable.”

    As for Davis, he is once again free, having posted $23,000 bail and released the same day he was arrested, although perhaps not for much longer: either the Darwin Awards will snatch him or the secret service will. According to Breitbart, the Secret Service had already been investigating Davis before he was arrested over the rapper’s threats against Trump. Investigators also found photos on Davis’s personal Instagram page, which boasts 56,000 followers, showing him posing with guns. One video features a young girl shooting a replica handgun.

    “Many of the items have been recovered, but the matter is still under investigation so when that is completed we will hopefully get them back,” Meaux told Fox. “But the most important thing is that they are off the streets now.”

    Not really: after posting bail, the rapper is free and awaiting his next court date, although we no longer has any guns.

    Meanwhile, it is clear that nothing has changed: “Maine Musik” posted another video Wednesday with a profanity-laced message for Donald Trump. “Fuck Donald Trump,” Davis says, although this time he has no gun and instead is seen waving a blade. “No more guns… It’s our summer 16, bitch.”

    It is unclear who the knife was stolen from.

    SHERWOOD USA BITCH ???? #????Nation

    A video posted by Maine Luciano (@maine_musik) on Jun 8, 2016 at 2:50pm PDT

  • An Everyman's Guide To Understanding Cryptocurrencies

    Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith via PeakProsperity.com,

    When an asset rises by almost 30% in a few weeks, it tends to attract attention.  Recently, that asset was bitcoin (BTC). The price of BTC in dollars rose from $454 on May 23 to $590 on June 6th.

    When an asset doubles in a matter of a few months, it tends to attract attention.  The cryptocurrency Ether (part of the Ethereum platform) doubled from around $7 in April to roughly $14 in early June.

    Are these cryptocurrencies mere fads? Or are they potentially game-changing alternatives to the conventional currencies such as the U.S. dollar, Chinese RMB, Japanese yen or European Union euro?

    There’s no lack of skeptics and critics of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. For example, “National currencies aren’t as Centralized, and Bitcoin isn’t as Decentralized, as you think.” (Source)

    There are plenty of defenders of cryptocurrencies as well, for example this response to the article above. 

    The controversy is understandable; bitcoin has had a difficult adolescence. After soaring from $15 in early 2013 to over $1,000 in December 2013, the cryptocurrency crashed to $215 in early 2015 in the wake of the bankruptcy of a major exchange (Mt. Gox) that cost bitcoin investors $470 million in losses.

    Yet despite concerns about security, criminal use and volatility, cryptocurrencies have proliferated at a dizzying pace, and new models such as the “smart contracts” of Ethereum have been developed.

    So what are those of us who can’t follow the technical arguments supposed to make of all this? For that audience, here's my stab at making sense of the potential global role of cryptocurrencies.

    Cryptocurrencies Are Digital Currencies That Are Not Issued by Governments

    What’s a cryptocurrency? Wikipedia’s definition is “a medium of exchange using cryptography to secure the transactions and to control the creation of new units.” Cryptocurrencies exist only in the digital realm; there are no physical coins or paper notes.

    Cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value. They share this characteristic with fiat currencies issued by governments/central banks:

    “Fiat money is currency that a government has declared to be legal tender, but is not backed by a physical commodity. The value of fiat money is derived from the relationship between supply and demand rather than the value of the material that the money is made of. Historically, most currencies were based on physical commodities such as gold or silver, but fiat money is based solely on faith. Fiat is the Latin word for “it shall be.” (Source)

    Though major central banks own gold, the currency they issue is not “backed by gold,” i.e. it cannot be converted into gold upon demand.

    The value of fiat currency is a function of supply and demand. There are many sources of demand for currency: governments demand taxes be paid in their fiat currency, for example, and this creates demand for the currency.

    There is however only two sources of supply: the central banks of nation-states (or regional unions like the Eurozone) and private banks in fractional reserve money systems that enable banks to create new money via issuing new loans.

    In a fractional reserve banking system, if a bank has $10 in cash deposits (i.e. in reserve), it can issue a new loan of $100. This loan is new money that was created out of thin air. When the loan is paid in full, this new money disappears from the system.

    When central banks or states issue new currency in excess of what the economy is actually producing, the supply overwhelms demand and the currency’s value (i.e. purchasing power) falls accordingly. Venezuela offers a present-day example: the official exchange rate of the Venezuelan bolivar is 10 to the U.S. dollar (USD), but the “street”/black market value is closer to 1,000 to 1 USD. (My correspondents in Venezuela report that it is illegal to post the black-market exchange rate on a website.)

    Governments typically restrict alternative currencies to protect their monopoly on money issuance: residents must use the government-sanctified currency or face prosecution and prison.

    The U.S. government has declared bitcoin is a commodity (i.e. property) rather than a currency. Other nations have banned bitcoin (presumably out of recognition that it is an alternative currency outside their control.)

    Why does bitcoin have any value at all? There are two basic reasons:

    1. The supply is limited.  The design of bitcoin limits the total number of bitcoins to 21 million. (If you really want to know why this is so, you’ll need to understand the blockchain and bitcoin mining, topics that are beyond the scope of this article.) At present, there are over 15.5 million bitcoins in circulation, roughly three-quarters of the eventual issuance of 21 million.
    2. There is demand for bitcoin precisely because it is outside the control of governments/central banks and cannot be devalued at will by governments/central banks.

    Why Fiat Currencies Are Being Devalued

    Why are most governments/central banks trying to devalue/depreciate their fiat currencies? After all, devaluing the currency reduces the purchasing power of everyone who holds the currency, meaning that the currency buys fewer goods and services. This loss of purchasing power makes everyone who must use the currency poorer.

    Why do governments/central banks pursue a policy that makes their citizens poorer?

    There are two primary reasons why governments seek to devalue their currency:

    1. To make the nation’s exports cheaper, i.e. more competitive, in the belief that expanding exports will make the overall economy grow, despite the fact that devaluing the currency makes imports more expensive, hurting everyone who buys imports.
    2. To make it easier for debtors to service their loans. As our currency loses its value, we experience that loss of purchasing power as inflation: the prices of goods and services rises as the purchasing power of the currency declines. Governments/central banks presume that wages will rise along with the prices of goods and services. This rise in wages will make it easier for debtors to service their debts, i.e. make their monthly payments. In a system that depends on the expansion of debt to fuel consumption, making it easier to service existing debt is of critical importance: if debt becomes more difficult to service, debt expansion slows and so does consumption. As consumption slows, the economy slides into recession.

    As their currency is devalued (by intention or by unintended consequences), the great problem for many people will be transferring their remaining financial wealth out of depreciating currencies into a more stable currency or into assets in a more stable nation.

    The Role of Cryptocurrencies in Capital Preservation

    This is where cryptocurrencies have a role that could increase as global currencies are devalued: if you can shift financial wealth out of a currency that is losing purchasing power into a cryptocurrency that is holding its own or even gaining in purchasing power, it would be irrational not to do so.

    What advantage do cryptocurrencies have over other stores of value such as gold, silver or cash? All of these traditional stores of value have advantages—portability and universal recognition that they are money—but they cannot be transported across the globe quite as easily as digital currencies.

    Though it is a topic of hot debate, many observers believe it is technically difficult to the point of impossibility to stop people from buying, selling and sending cryptocurrencies because currencies such as bitcoin live in a network that is scattered around the globe—a network that can be accessed by anyone with a web browser.

    While local exchanges could be shut down by governments, and businesses could be prohibited from accepting cryptocurrencies, stopping people from logging onto servers sited elsewhere is a bigger challenge. (Many governments have outlawed cryptocurrencies, though their success rate in stopping their citizenry from owning/using cryptocurrencies is unknown.)

    The rise in daily transactions in bitcoin suggests an expanding base of users globally.

    In Part 2: Will Cryptocurrencies Soar As The Global Economy Falters? we explore the potential demand for cryptocurrencies as a means of transferring and preserving capital, and the potential impact of these capital flows on valuations of cryptocurrencies.

    As governments actively devalue their currencies (thereby making everyone using the currency poorer), their citizenry with financial capital are forced to seek ways to move their at-risk wealth into other currencies or assets. And as the stability and valuations of cryptocurrencies increase, the potential for a self-reinforcing feedback loop increases: as the value of cryptocurrency rises, it attracts more capital, which pushes prices higher, and so on.

    Are we in the infancy of a global stampede into cryptocurrencies?

    Click here to read Part 2 of this report (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access)

     

  • How Fascism Comes To America

    Submitted by Doug Casey via InternationalMan.com,

    I think there are really only two good reasons for having a significant amount of money: To maintain a high standard of living and to ensure your personal freedom. There are other, lesser reasons, of course, including: to prove you can do it, to compensate for failings in other things, to impress others, to leave a legacy, to help perpetuate your genes, or maybe because you just can't think of something better to do with your time.

    But I'll put aside those lesser motives, which I tend to view as psychological foibles. Basically, money gives you the freedom to do what you'd like – and when, how, and with whom you prefer to do it. Money allows you to have things and do things and can even assist you to be something you want to be. Unfortunately, money is a chimera in today's world and will wind up savaging billions in the years to come.

    As you know, I believe we're well into what I call The Greater Depression. A lot of people believe we're in a recovery now; I think, from a long-term point of view, that is total nonsense. We're just in the eye of the hurricane and will soon be moving into the other side of the storm. But it will be far more severe than what we saw in 2008 and 2009 and will last quite a while – perhaps for many years, depending on how stupidly the government acts.

    Real Reasons for Optimism

    There are reasons for optimism, of course, and at least two of them make sense.

    The first is that every individual wants to improve his economic status. Many (but by no means all) of them will intuit that the surest way to do so is to produce more than they consume and save the difference. That creates capital, which can be invested in or loaned to productive enterprises. But what if outside forces make that impossible, or at least much harder than it should be?

     

    The second reason for optimism is the development of technology – which is the ability to manipulate the material world to suit our desires. Scientists and engineers develop technology, and that also adds to the supply of capital. The more complex technology becomes, the more outside capital is required. But what if sufficient capital isn't generated by individuals and businesses to fund further technological advances?

    There are no guarantees in life. Throughout the first several hundred thousand years of human existence, very little capital was accumulated – perhaps a few skins or arrowheads passed on to the next generation. And there was very little improvement in technology – it was many millennia between the taming of fire and, say, the invention of the bow. Things very gradually accelerated and improved, in a start-stop-start kind of way – the classical world, followed by the Dark Ages, followed by the medieval world. Finally, as we entered the industrial world 200 years ago, it looked like we were on an accelerating path to the stars. All of a sudden, life was no longer necessarily so solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, or short. I'm reasonably confident things will continue improving, possibly at an accelerating rate. But only if individuals create more capital than they consume and if enough of that capital is directed towards productive technology.

    Real Reasons for Pessimism

    Those are the two mainsprings of human progress: capital accumulation and technology. Unfortunately, however, that reality has become obscured by a morass of false and destructive theories, abetted by a world that's become so complex that it's too difficult for most people to sort out cause and effect. Furthermore, most people in the OECD world have become so accustomed to good times, since the end of WW2, that they think prosperity is automatic and a permanent feature of the cosmic firmament. So although I'm very optimistic, progress – certainly over the near term – isn't guaranteed.

    These are the main reasons why the standard of living has been artificially high in the advanced world, but don't confuse them with the two reasons for long-term prosperity.

    The first is debt. There's nothing wrong with debt in itself; lending is one way for the owner of capital to deploy it. But if a society is going to advance, debt should be largely for productive purposes, so that it's self-liquidating; and most of it would necessarily be short term.

     

    But most of the scores of trillions of debt in the world today are for consumption, not production. And the debt is not only not self-liquidating, it's compounding. And most of it is long term, with no relation to any specific asset. A lender can reasonably predict the value of a short-term loan, but debt payable in 30 years is impossible to value realistically. All government debt, mortgage debt, consumer debt, and almost all student loan debt does nothing but allow borrowers to live off the capital others have accumulated. It turns the debtors into indentured servants for the indefinite future. The entire world has basically overlooked this, along with most other tenets of sound economics.

     

    The second is inflation. Like debt, inflation induces people to live above their means, but its consequences are even worse, because they're indirect and delayed. If the central bank deposited $10,000 in everyone's bank account next Monday, everyone would think they were wealthier and start consuming more. This would start a business cycle. The business cycle is always the result of currency inflation, no matter how subtle or mild. And it always results in a depression. The longer an inflation goes on, the more ingrained the distortions and misallocations of capital become, and the worse the resulting depression. We've had a number of inflationary cycles since the end of the last depression in 1948. I believe we're now at the end of what might be called a super-cycle, resulting in a super-depression.

     

    The third is the export of dollars. This is unique to the U.S. and is the reason the depression in the U.S. will in some ways be worse than most other places. Since the early '70s, the dollar has been used the way gold once was – it's the world's currency. The problem is that the U.S. has exported perhaps $10 trillion – but nobody knows – in exchange for good things from around the world. It was a great trade for a while. The foreigners get paper created at essentially zero cost, while Americans live high on the hog with the goodies those dollars buy.

     

    But at some point quite soon, dollars won't be readily accepted, and smart foreigners will start dumping their dollars, passing the Old Maid card. Ultimately, most of the dollars will come back to the U.S., to be traded for titles to land and businesses. Americans will find that they traded their birthright for a storage unit full of TVs and assorted tchotchkes. But many foreigners will also be stuck with dollars and suffer a huge loss. It's actually a game with no winner.

    What's Next

    These last three factors have enabled essentially the whole world to live above its means for decades. The process has been actively facilitated by governments everywhere. People like living above their means, and governments prefer to see the masses sated.

    The debt and inflation have also financed the growth of the welfare state, making a large percentage of the masses dependent, even while they've also resulted in an immense expansion in the size and power of the state over the last 60-odd years. The masses have come to think government is a magical entity that can do almost anything, including kiss the economy and make it better when the going gets tough. The type of people who are drawn to the government are eager to make the state a panacea. So they'll redouble their efforts in the fiscal and monetary areas I've described above, albeit with increasingly disastrous results.

    They'll also become quite aggressive with regulations (on what you can do and say, and where your money can go) and taxes (much higher existing taxes and lots of new ones, like a national VAT and a wealth tax). And since nobody wants to take the blame for problems, they'll blame things on foreigners. Fortunately (the U.S. will think) they have a huge military and will employ it promiscuously. So the already bankrupt nations of NATO will dig the hole deeper with some serious – but distracting – new wars.

    It's most unfortunate, but the U.S. and its allies will turn into authoritarian police states. Even more than they are today. Much more, actually. They'll all be perfectly fascist – private ownership of both consumer goods and the means of production topped by state control of both. Fascism operates free of underlying principles or philosophy; it's totally the whim of the people in control, and they'll prove ever more ruthless.

    So where does that leave us, as far as accumulating more wealth than the average guy is concerned? I'd say it puts us in a rather troubling position. The general standard of living is going to collapse, as will your personal freedom. And if you're an upper-middle-class person (I suspect that includes most who are now reading this), you will be considered among the rich who are somehow (this is actually a complex subject worthy of discussion) responsible for the bad times and therefore liable to be eaten. The bottom line is that if you value your money and your freedom, you'll take action.

    There's much, much more to be said on all this. I've said a lot on the topic over the past few years, at some length. But I thought it best to be brief here, for the purpose of emphasis. Essentially, act now, because the world's combined economic, financial, political, social, and military situation is as good as it will be for many years… and a lot better than it has any right to be.

    What to Do?

    No new advice here, at least as far as veteran readers are concerned. But my suspicion is that very few of you have acted, even if you understand why you should act. Peer pressure (I'm confident that you have few, if any, friends, relatives, or associates who think along these lines) and inertia are powerful forces.

    That said, you should do the following:

    1. Maintain significant bank and brokerage accounts outside your home country. Consider setting up an offshore asset protection trust. These things aren't as easy to do as they used to be. But they'll likely be much less easy in the future.
    2. Make sure you have a significant portion of your wealth in precious metals and a significant part of that offshore.
    3. Buy some nice foreign real estate, ideally in a place where you wouldn't mind spending some time.
    4. Work on getting official residency in another country, as well as a second citizenship/passport. There's every advantage to doing so, and no disadvantages. That's true of all these things.

    One more thing: Don't worry too much. All countries seem to go through nasty phases. Within the lifetime of most people today, we've seen it in big countries such as Russia, Germany, and China. And in scores of smaller ones – the list is too long to recount here. The good news is that things almost always get better, eventually.

  • Mike Rowe Gives Advice To Students: "Never Follow Your Passion"

    Mike Rowe has some truthiness for those students who are "following their passion" without possessing the skills necessary to accomplish what they're trying to do.

    "You've all been given some terrible advice, and that advice is this: follow your passion."

    The former host of Dirty Jobs tells it like it is by explaining to students that passion and ability have nothing to do with each other, and that "Just because you're passionate about something, doesn't mean you won't suck at it.". Rowe also reminds students that just because they may have a degree in a chosen field, it doesn't mean that a dream job awaits.

    "Dream jobs are usually just that – dreams. But their imaginary existence just might keep you from exploring careers that offer a legitimate chance to perform meaningful work."

    "Never follow your passion, but always bring it with you."

    * * *

    Rowe's message fits nicely with our 7 Harsh Realities Of Life Millennials Need To Understand, which should be widely read, lest we end up with more of this…

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Today’s News 11th June 2016

  • Paul Craig Roberts: "Fellow Americans, Wake Up & Escape The Matrix"

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    Where Do Matters Stand?

    On the eve of World War II the United States was still mired in the Great Depression and found itself facing war on two fronts with Japan and Germany. However bleak the outlook, it was nothing compared to the outlook today.

    Has anyone in Washington, the presstitute Western media, the EU, or NATO ever considered the consequences of constant military and propaganda provocations against Russia? Is there anyone in any responsible position anywhere in the Western world who has enough sense to ask: “What if the Russians believe us? What if we convince Russia that we are going to attack her?”

    The same can be asked about China.

    The recklessness of the White House Fool and the media whores has gone far beyond mere danger. What do the Russians think when they see that the Democratic Party intends to elect Hillary Clinton president of the US? Hillary is a person so crazed that she declared the president of Russia to be “the new Hitler” and organized through her underling, neocon monster Victoria Nuland, the overthrow of the democratically elected government of Ukraine. Nuland installed Washington’s puppet government in a former Russian province that until about 20 years ago was part of Russia for centuries.

    I would bet that this tells even the naive pro-western part of the Russian government and population that the United States intends war with Russia.

    Ever since Russia stood up to Obama over Syria, the Russians have been experiencing hostile propaganda and military operations on their borders. These provocations are justified by Washington and its NATO vassals as a response to “Russian aggression.” Russian aggression consists of nothing but obviously false assertions that Russia is about to invade the Baltics, Poland, and Romania and recreate the Soviet Empire, the Eastern European part of which, together with the former Russian provinces of Georgia and Ukraine, now belong to the American Empire.

    The Russians know that the propaganda about “Russian aggression” is a lie. What is the purpose of the lie other than to prepare the Western peoples for war with Russia?

    There is no other explanation.

    Even morons such as Obama, Merkel, Hollande, and Cameron should be capable of understanding that it is extremely dangerous to convince a major military power that you are going to attack. To simultaneously also convince China doubles the danger.

    Clearly, the West is incapable of producing leadership capable of preserving life on earth.

    What can be done when the entire West demonstrates a death wish for Planet Earth?

    Until the criminal regimes of Clinton, George W. Bush, and Obama, American presidents from John F. Kennedy forward worked to reduce tensions with the Soviets. Kennedy worked with Khrushchev to reduce tensions caused by US missiles in Turkey and Soviet missiles in Cuba. President Nixon negotiated SALT I (the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty) and the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. President Carter negotiated SALT II, which was never ratified by the US Senate but was observed by the executive branch. President Reagan negotiated with Soviet leader Gorbachev the end of the Cold War. President George H.W. Bush in exchange for Gorbachev’s agreement to the reunification of Germany promised that NATO would not move one inch to the East.

    All of these achievements were thrown away by the neoconized Clinton, George W. Bush, and Obama regimes, each a criminal regime on par with Nazi Germany.

    Today life on Planet Earth is far less secure than during the darkest days of the Cold War. Whatever threat global warming poses, it is miniscule compared to the threat of nuclear winter. If the evil that is concentrated in Washington and its vassals perpetrates nuclear war, cockroaches will inherit the earth.

    I have been warning about the growing danger of a nuclear war resulting from the arrogance, hubris, ignorance, and evil personified by Washington. Recently, four knowledgable Russian-Americans spelled out the likely consequences of trying to drive Russia to submission with war threats: http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2016/06/03/41522/

    See also: http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2016/05/28/as-our-past-wars-are-glorified-this-memorial-day-weekend-give-some-thought-to-our-prospects-against-the-russians-and-chinese-in-world-war-iii/

    Don’t expect the brainwashed American population to have the moral conscience and fortitude to prevent nuclear war or even the intelligence to prevent their own vaporization. In a recent article in the Wall Street Journal Scott Sagan and Benjamin Valentino report that 59% of the US population support attacking Iran with nuclear weapons in the event that Iran sank one US Navy ship: http://www.wsj.com/articles/would-the-u-s-drop-the-bomb-again-1463682867

    Republicans were much more likely than Democrats to approve attacking Iran with nuclear weapons with 81% of Republicans approving nuclear war compared to 47% of Democrats. Yet, the Democrats are behind Hillary who would be the first to use nuclear weapons. After all, a feminized woman has to prove how tough she is, just as Margaret Thatcher was “the Iron Lady.”

    Before it it too late for Americans and all of humanity, arrogant Americans need to recall that “those who live by the sword, die by the sword.”

    The economic picture is equally dismal and unpromising. The latest payroll jobs report was even more awful than reported. Hardly any new jobs were created, but what largely escaped reporting is the fact that the economy actually lost 59,000 full-time jobs.

    Increasingly the US economy consists of part-time jobs that cannot support an independent existence. Thus, more Americans age 19-34 live at home with parents than independently with spouses or partners. Fully half of 25-year old Americans live in their childhood rooms in their parents’ homes.

    This is the “New Economy” that the filthy lying neoliberal economists promised would be reward for the American work force giving up their manufacturing and professional skill jobs to foreigners. What a monstrous lie the neoliberal economists told so that corporate executives and shareholders could put into their own pockets the living wage of the American work force. These neoliberal economists, and, alas, libertarian “free market” ones, have not been held accountable for their impoverishment of the American work force deeply buried in debt with no future prospects.

    Those few Americans who have any awareness are beginning to realize that the One Percent and the western governments that serve them are re-establishing feudalism. The brilliant and learned economist, Michael Hudson, has labeled our era the era of neo-feudalism.

    He is correct. The majority of young Americans come out of university heavily indebted, primed for debtor prison. When half of 25-year olds cannot marry and form households, how can anyone believe that housing sales and prices are rising except as a result of speculative investors banking on rental income from a population that cannot even pay its student loans.

    The United States is the sickest place on earth. There is no public or political discussion of any important issue or of the multiple crises that confront America or the crises that America brings to the world.

    The American people are so stupid and unaware that they are capable of electing a criminal and a warmonger like Hillary president of the United States and be proud of it.

    These “tough” Americans are so frightened of hoax dangers, such as “Muslim terrorists” and “Russian aggression” that they willingly sacrificed their depleted pocketbooks, the Constitution of the United States—an act of treason on the part of the American people who utterly failed their responsibility to protect the Constitution—and their own liberty to a universal police state that has all power over them.

    It is extraordinary that once-proud, once-great European peoples look for leadership from a country of moronic non-entities who have pissed away the liberty, security, and prosperity that their Founding Fathers gave to them.

    Fellow Americans, if you care to avoid vaporization and, assuming we do avoid it, live a life other than serfdom, you must wake up and realize that your most deadly enemy is Washington, not the hoax of “Russian aggression,” not the hoax of “Muslim terrorism,” not the hoax of “domestic extremism,” not the hoax of welfare bankrupting America, not the hoax of democracy voting away your wealth, which Wall Street and the corporations have already stolen and stuck in their pockets.

    If you cannot wake up and escape The Matrix, your doom will bring the doom of the planet.

  • The "Crime" Of Offending Islam & Death Of Free Speech In Europe

    Across Europe, cartoonists, artists and writers are forced to live under police protection, and also often face criminal prosecution – all for the "crime" of offending Islam.

    "'Respect' means, for them, submission." It starts with censoring cartoons…

    Gatestone Institute's Giulio Meotti explains what is going on across Europe…

    As we concluded previously,

    Speech is either free or it isn’t. One cannot have it both ways, as the EU apparatchiks apparently think. As soon as restrictions on free speech are introduced, abuse is sure to follow.

  • This Employment Trend Is Not Your Friend

    Submitted by Michael Lebowtiz of 720 Global

    Loan Delinquencies may be Signaling Recession

    On June 2, 2016 the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) stunned economic prognosticators and the financial media when it reported that 38,000 new jobs were created in May. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists was 160,000 new jobs, with estimates ranging from 110,000 to 219,000. Even the most pessimistic forecast turned out grossly optimistic!

    At 720 Global we do not forecast economic data, choosing, instead to focus on the bigger macroeconomic picture. That said, we were not surprised by the recent weakness of jobs data. In fact, unlike most forecasters, we do not view the recent employment data as a one-off event but as further proof of a worsening trend in economic activity. In this article, we share a few thoughts that explain why.

    Corporate Profitability and Loan Delinquencies

    As of the first quarter of 2016, S&P 500 annual earnings have declined for six consecutive quarters and reside at levels last seen in 2013 (data: Standard & Poor’s). Historically, as profitability falters an increasing number of corporate borrowers become delinquent on loans, or worse they default entirely. During such periods corporate executives focus on reducing expenses, which typically translates into reducing headcount. Accordingly, corporate and business loan delinquencies can serve as a barometer of future employment trends.

    Commercial and Industrial (C&I) loan delinquency rates, have a strong historical correlation with employment. C&I delinquency rates have risen over the last year and a half, in-line with the decline in corporate profits, to levels last seen four years ago. While the overall delinquency rate is still relatively benign, it is increasing sharply. Another important observation about the delinquency growth rate is that delinquencies tend to trend in one direction for long periods. Note: C&I loans are loans to corporations and businesses and not individuals. Data on these loans are reported on by the Federal Reserve.

    The graph below, courtesy of Cyril Castelli of R-Cube, highlights the relationship between the rate of change in C&I delinquencies and employment. The delinquency rates are inverted to better highlight the correlation.

    Based on the historical correlation and the sharp growth in C&I loan delinquencies recently, it is conceivable employment drops abruptly over the next 6 months.

    BLS Non-Farm Payrolls Data

    The graph below charts the three-month moving average of the change in Non-Farm Payrolls against a backdrop of recession periods shaded in light blue.

    Over the last 50 years, the U.S. was either in recession or just recovering from one every time three-month job growth went negative (below zero on the graph). In fact, on average a recession began when the three-month average of job growth was still well above zero at 104,000. Currently, the three-month average sits at 116,000. If next month’s report shows fewer than 151,000 jobs created, the three-month average will fall below 104,000.

    ISM Non-Manufacturing

    The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) produces two indices based on a monthly survey of manufacturing and non-manufacturing business leaders. Within the two ISM indices are component indices such as new orders, employment and prices. Most relevant to this discussion is the ISM Non-Manufacturing – Employment index. The graph below plots this index against a backdrop of recession periods.

    A monthly reading above 50 signifies that a majority of those surveyed believe employment conditions are improving. A reading below 50 denotes the majority think employment conditions are worsening. The most recent reading was 49.7 but the three-month average of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment index has yet to break below 50. Historically, each time it has dropped below 50, the U.S. was already in a recession. That said, the three-month average of 51.0 is currently below the three-month average the last two times the U.S. economy entered a recession.

    Summary

    If C&I loan delinquencies prove, once again, to be a leading signal of employment trends, ensuing job losses will send the BLS employment data and the ISM non-manufacturing employment survey well below levels that, in the past, were recessionary.

    Personal consumption represents 70% of GDP, therefore a financially healthy and employed consumer plays an outsized role in swaying economic trends. While the employment picture has generally been improving since the financial crisis/recession of 2008-2009, that improvement is showing signs of faltering. A worsening employment picture has serious implications for GDP growth, increasing concerns we have consistently raised about asset price valuations, which are heavily dependent upon the outlook for economic growth.

  • Stunning Emails Reveal How Clinton Foundation Donor Bought Seat As Hillary's Nuclear Weapons Advisor

    Forget Hillary’s personal email server: this is what true cronyism and criminal corruption looks like, and this is the biggest threat from a Hillary presidency.

    It has been widely speculated, if not proven, that donors to the Clinton Foundation who over the years have transferred hundreds of millions of dollars to the “charitable organization”, bought political favors with the Clintons in exchange for their generosity. That has now been confirmed thanks to a stunning ABC report which reveals how a major foundation donor – one who previously had practically no experience on intellgience matters – mysteriously ended up as a nuclear weapons advisor to Hillary during her tenure as Secretary of State.

    Worse, the person in question Rajiv K. Fernando, had been the head of a high frequency trading company, Chopper Trading (recently acquired by HFT powerhouse DRW), which may explain the unprecedented pull of the HFT lobby throughout all ranks of the US political apparatus. In other words, Fernando bought a seat to not only have advance knowledge of all US foreign policy, but to directly shape it, something he could then parlay in the forms of massive policy frontrunning profits thanks to his trading company.

    In other words, the appointment qualified Fernando, a trader in the public markets, for one of the highest levels of top secret access.

    Just as shocking was the aggressive retaliation with which the State Department tried to cover up the cronyism that literally “bought” Fernando’s seat as one of Hillary’s closest political advisors, and how – as a result of ongoing media pressure – Fernando just as mysteriously resigned only days after his appointment was announced when the State Department was unable to come up with a legitimate reason for him to stay on.

    The full shocking story follows, courtesy of ABC.

    Newly released State Department emails help reveal how a major Clinton Foundation donor was placed on a sensitive government intelligence advisory board even though he had no obvious experience in the field, a decision that appeared to baffle the department’s professional staff.

    The emails further reveal how, after inquiries from ABC News, the Clinton staff sought to “protect the name” of the Secretary, “stall” the ABC News reporter and ultimately accept the resignation of the donor just two days later.

    Copies of dozens of internal emails were provided to ABC News by the conservative political group Citizens United, which obtained them under the Freedom of Information Act after more the two years of litigation with the government.

    A prolific fundraiser for Democratic candidates and contributor to the Clinton Foundation, who later traveled with Bill Clinton on a trip to Africa, Rajiv K. Fernando’s only known qualification for a seat on the International Security Advisory Board (ISAB) was his technological know-how. The Chicago securities trader, who specialized in electronic investing, sat alongside an august collection of nuclear scientists, former cabinet secretaries and members of Congress to advise Hillary Clinton on the use of tactical nuclear weapons and on other crucial arms control issues.

    “We had no idea who he was,” one board member told ABC News.

    PHOTO: A State Department photograph shows the 2011 International Security Advisory Board. Rajiv Fernando is seated on the far left of the image.

    A State Department photograph shows the 2011 International Security Advisory
    Board. Rajiv Fernando is seated on the far left of the image

    Fernando’s lack of any known background in nuclear security caught the attention of several board members, and when ABC News first contacted the State Department in August 2011 seeking a copy of his resume, the emails show that confusion ensued among the career government officials who work with the advisory panel.

    “I have spoken to [State Department official and ISAB Executive Director Richard Hartman] privately, and it appears there is much more to this story that we’re unaware of,” wrote Jamie Mannina, the press aide who fielded the ABC News request. “We must protect the Secretary’s and Under Secretary’s name, as well as the integrity of the Board. I think it’s important to get down to the bottom of this before there’s any response.

    “As you can see from the attached, it’s natural to ask how he got onto the board when compared to the rest of the esteemed list of members,” Mannina wrote, referring to an attachment that was not included in the recent document release.

    Fernando himself would not answer questions from ABC News in 2011 about what qualified him for a seat on the board or led to his appointment. When ABC News finally caught up with Fernando at the 2012 Democratic convention, he became upset and said he was “not at liberty” to speak about it. Security threatened to have the ABC News reporter arrested.

    PHOTO: At the 2012 Democratic National Convention, ABC News Brian Ross asks Rajiv Fernando about his 2011 appointment to the State Departments International Security Advisory Board.

    At the 2012 Democratic Convention, ABC News’ Brian Ross asks Rajiv Fernando
    about his 2011 appointment to the State Department’s International Security Advisory Board.

    Fernando’s expertise appeared to be in the arena of high-frequency trading –– a form of computer-generated stock trading. At the time of his appointment, he headed a firm, Chopper Trading, that was a leader in that field.

    Fernando’s history of campaign giving dated back at least to 2003 and was prolific — and almost exclusively to Democrats. He was an early supporter of Hillary Clinton’s 2008 bid for president, giving maximum contributions to her campaign, and to HillPAC, in 2007 and 2008. He also served as a fundraising bundler for Clinton, gathering more than $100,000 from others for her White House bid. After Barack Obama bested Clinton for the 2008 nomination, Fernando became a major fundraiser for the Obama campaign. Prior to his State Department appointment, Fernando had given between $100,000 and $250,000 to the William J. Clinton Foundation, and another $30,000 to a political advocacy group, WomenCount, that indirectly helped Hillary Clinton retire her lingering 2008 campaign debts by renting her campaign email list.

    The appointment qualified Fernando for one of the highest levels of top secret access, the emails show. Among those with whom Fernando served on the International Security Advisory Board was David A. Kay, the former head of the Iraq Survey Group and United Nations Chief Weapons Inspector; Lt. Gen. Brent Scowcroft, a former National Security Advisor to two presidents; two former congressmen; and former Sen. Chuck Robb. William Perry, the former Secretary of Defense, chaired the panel.

    “It is certainly a serious, knowledgeable and experienced group of experts,” said Bruce Blair, a Princeton professor whose principal research covers the technical and policy steps on the path toward the verifiable elimination of nuclear weapons. “Much of the focus has been on questions of nuclear stability and the risks of nuclear weapons use by Russia and Pakistan.”

    The newly released emails reveal that after ABC News started asking questions in August 2011, a State Department official who worked with the advisory board couldn’t immediately come up with a justification for Fernando serving on the panel. His and other emails make repeated references to “S”; ABC News has been told this is a common way to refer to the Secretary of State.

    “The true answer is simply that S staff (Cheryl Mills) added him,” wrote Wade Boese, who was Chief of Staff for the Office of the Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, in an email to Mannina, the press aide. “Raj was not on the list sent to S; he was added at their insistence.”

     Mills, a former deputy White House counsel, was serving as Clinton’s chief of staff at the time, and has been a longtime legal and political advisor.

    Four minutes later, Boese wrote to his boss, Richard Hartman, to alert him that Ellen Tauscher, who was then the Undersecretary for State for Arms Control and International Security Affairs, would be meeting with Mills to devise a response to the ABC News request.

    “Sorry this has become a headache,” he wrote.

    Hartman wrote the next morning to say he would “come up and brief you… about where Raj Fernando stands and the ABC News investigative journalist inquiries. You do need to hear about it.” Separately, in an email to another official, Hartman noted that it was “Cheryl Mills, who added Mr. Fernando’s name to the list of ISAB nominees.”

    When ABC News sent a follow-up inquiry about the qualifications of another board appointee, Massachusetts state Rep. Harold P. Naughton, Jr., Boese wrote to Hartman to say the department would have a far easier time explaining Naughton’s credentials. “The case for Rep. Naughton is an easy one. We are on solid ground,” he said.

    By this point, Fernando himself had been looped into the discussion. He and Hartman exchanged emails, but the entire text of Fernando’s letter was redacted by the State Department prior to its release.

    Twice, Mannina was instructed to stall with ABC News, before Mills sent a public statement. It announced Fernando’s abrupt decision to step down.

    “Mr. Fernando chose to resign from the Board earlier this month citing additional time needed to devote to his business,” it reads, noting that membership on the board was required to be “fairly balanced in terms of the points of view represented and the functions to be performed by the advisory committee.”

    “As President and CEO of Chopper Trading, Mr. Fernando brought a unique perspective to ISAB. He has years of experience in the private sector in implementing sophisticated risk management tools, information technology and international finance,” the statement says.

    The statement was emailed to ABC News two days after Fernando’s resignation and four days after the initial ABC News inquiry.

    Fernando’s letter of resignation to Clinton says he “intended to devote a substantial amount of time to the work of ISAB in furtherance of its objectives. However, the unique, unexpected, and excessive volatility in the international markets these last few weeks and months require[d him] to focus [his] energy on the operations of [his] company.”

    Additional emails collected from Hillary Clinton’s personal server only hint at her possible involvement in Fernando’s selection to the board. The records request for documents about Fernando’s appointment produced a chain of correspondence from 2010 with the subject line “ISAB” — or International Security Advisory Board. In those, Mills writes, “The secretary had two other names she wanted looked at.” The names are redacted. Mills then forwarded the response to “H,” which is the designation for Clinton’s personal account. Three minutes later Clinton forwards the email chain to another State official and says simply, “Pls print.”

    The Clinton campaign declined requests from ABC News to make Mills available for an interview. Campaign spokesman Nick Merrill deferred to the U.S. State Department, which issued a statement saying the board’s charter specifically calls for a membership that reflects “a balance of backgrounds and points of view. Furthermore, it is not unusual for the State Department Chief of Staff to be involved in personnel matters.”

    Cheryl Mills, former State Department chief of staff under former Secretary of State
    Hillary Clinton, attends a House Select Committee on Benghazi hearing in Washington, Oct. 22, 2015

    Fernando did not respond to messages left by ABC News at home and mobile numbers listed for Fernando, nor to a letter left at the office of his current business.

    As is customary with a new administration, the make-up of the board changed substantially when Clinton took over the State Department, according to Amb. James Woolsey, who served on the panel from 2006 to 2009. But the seriousness of its mission remained the same.

    He said the board’s primary purpose was to gather an array of experts on nuclear weapons and arms control to constantly assess and update the nation’s nuclear strategy.

    Most things that involve nuclear weapons and nuclear strategy are dealt with at a pretty sensitive basis — top secret,” he said, noting that participants meet in a secure facility and are restricted in what materials they can discuss.

    That is not typically the realm of political donors, Woolsey said. Though, he added, it would not be impossible for someone lacking a security background to make a contribution to the panel. “It would depend on how smart and dedicated this person was… I would think you would have to devote some real time to getting up to speed,” he said.

    Fernando is now a board member of a private group called the American Security Project, which describes itself as “a nonpartisan organization created to educate the American public and the world about the changing nature of national security in the 21st Century.” He also identifies himself online as a member of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and says he’s involved with a Washington think tank.

    And he continued to donate to Democrats, and to Clinton. He emerged as one of the first “bundlers” to raise money for Clinton’s 2016 bid. And in July 2015, he hosted a fundraiser for Clinton at his Chicago home. Fernando has also continued to donate to the Clinton Foundation. He now is listed on the charity’s website as having given between $1 million and $5 million.

    About six months after Fernando resigned from the State Department advisory board, he was invited to attend a White House State Dinner, honoring the British Prime Minister. And this summer Fernando will serve as a super delegate at the Democratic National Convention. According to Chicago media reports, he has committed to supporting Clinton.

    * * *

    And that, for a mere $1-$5 million sunk cost, one can buy influence, and inside information, which – in this specific case – can then be traded and generate hundreds of millions in profits, an IRR that is too big for Excel to calculate.

    The punchline: with thousands of generous Clinton Foundation donating “Fernandos” waiting in the wings, it is only a matter of time before President Clinton’s entire staff is comprised of people who did their math and realized that the US government is merely a means to an end: the end, of course, being to get very, very rich at the expense of the American people whom they – and Hillary – should be serving.

    * * *

    The following emails were obtained by the conservative political group Citizens United, which obtained them under the Freedom of Information Act, and were provided to ABC News. ABC News has arranged the emails in chronological order. Scroll through the emails below or CLICK HERE to open them in a new window.


  • Former Fed President: "All My Very Rich Friends Are Hoarding Cash"

    There were numerous interesting, informative and mostly bearish speakers during the latest Strategic Investment Conference held at the end of May.  Among them were Lacy Hunt, David Rosenberg, Neil Howe, Jim Grant, Mark Yusko, Gary Shilling, and  JohnMauldin (readers can watch video interviews with these speakers on Mauldin Economics’ Youtube channel and their full presentations can be found at the following page) all of whom painted a very pessimistic picture for the stock market but, as Tony Sagami points out, the most alarming comment came from Richard Fisher.

    Fisher was president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) from 2005 to 2015. He was one of, perhaps the only, skeptic on the Fed board going into the great financial crisis, warning on numerous occasions about the upcoming crash only to be ignored by his wiser peers and certainly Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke. He was also ignored in the post-Lehman era by both Bernanke and Janet Yellen.

    Among his biggest concerns:

    • Government Debt: he is worried about the $19 trillion US government debt (up $11 trillion since 2008) because the Fed has fired all its monetary bullets and can’t expand the balance sheet any further.
    • China and social instability: he thinks communist leaders care about production but not efficiency. “They might produce more, but our products work,” jokes Fisher. There are entire cities in China with nobody living in them, according to him. Fisher says the biggest problem in China is social stability. “I’m deeply worried about their ability to maintain social stability,” but… “It doesn’t affect us directly.” Another risk in China is that millions of people are pulling their money out of the country.
    • Low interest rates don’t work: “We had a long period of moderation and low interet rares, which did nothing to adjust.” The online countries that adjusted were Poland and Mexico, according to Fisher.
    • The failed Brazilian experiment: Fisher said Brazil is a symbol of what’s wrong with emerging markets. They lived through the crisis but learned nothing from it.“Brazil has always been a country with potential, and it’s never been realized.”
    • Raising rates is long overdue: he made the point that raising interest rates won’t ruin the economy. “The debt rollover is what we should be worried about. Yet nobody is talking about it.”
    • It’s all one big Ponzi scheme: “Our government has to borrow money just to pay interest.” Or as Minsky would say, this is the Ponzi finance stage, just before everything goes to hell. “We have a lot of unsound policy in place. It is agreeable, but in my view, it is unsound.”
    • The death of the middle class: Fisher says the lowest income quartile has seen an increase in income. The highest quartile has also seen a massive increase in income. The two middle quartiles were flat over a period of many years. “This is why we have such support for people like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.”
    • A ritalin monetary policy: “We have what I call a Ritalin based monetary policy.” Now Janet Yellen’s job is to wean it. “It has to do with taking the distortions out of the financial markets and letting the markets down easier.” “These are the lowest interest rates in 239 years of history.”

    But as Sagami points out, Fisher’s most telling comment came during the Q&A session when he was asked how his personal portfolio was positioned. Fisher’s response: “In the fetal position.” Moreover, he also said that “all my very rich friends are hoarding cash.” 

    Not some, not many. All.

    Which, incidentally may explain why as algos levitate markets on ever lower volume (volume which returns with a vengeance on even a moderate selloff such as today’s), “smart money“, insiders, retail investors and foreigners continue to quietly liquidate stocks for weeks on end. While it is unclear who is buying, what is clear is that increasingly more are getting out of risk assets and getting into cash.

    For the sake of Fisher’s friends we hope the cash they are hoarding is physical, and not of the electronic variety. After all, as Greece has shown vividly, it would only take the flick of a switch for the government to lock up, or Corzine, some or all of the $10+ trillion in bank deposits. And ultimately, since helicopter money is coming, even that physical cash will soon be worthless courtesy of near-infinite dilute, and the only monetary asset which would survive the hyperinflationary conflagration of the grand reset, is the same precious metals that have preserved their value through over 5,000 years of human stupidity. Which, ironically, reminds us that just because one is rich that does not make them smart..

  • Government Failure: Audit Finds FDA's Inadequate Policies Are Leaving The Nation At Risk

    If it is ever discovered that tainted food has been released to the public for consumption, it is the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) responsibility to ensure a recall of the product takes place.

    In a very disturbing audit finding Wednesday, the Department of Health and Human Services' Office of Inspector General has determined that due to inadequate policies and procedures, the FDA is too slow in ordering companies to recall tainted foods.

    Here are some comments from the memo sent to the FDA from the Inspector General regarding the audit findings.

    The audit memo opens by stating that the FDA doesn't have an efficient and effective food recall process to ensure the safety of the Nation's food supply.

    The purpose of this memorandum is to alert you to a preliminary finding from our ongoing audit of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) food recall program. One of the objectives of our audit is to determine whether FDA has an efficient and effective food recall initiation process that helps ensure the safety of the Nation’s food supply.

     

    We found that FDA did not have an efficient and effective food recall initiation process that helps ensure the safety of the Nation’s food supply. Specifically, FDA did not have policies and procedures to ensure that firms1 or responsible parties2 (collectively referred to in this document as “firms”) initiated voluntary food recalls promptly. This issue is a significant matter and requires FDA’s immediate attention.

    Two examples from the findings were specifically called out, with one case being a strain of Salmonella found in nut butter in which 165 days passed before a recall was issued. Another example involved various cheese products in which people became ill from Listeria – 81 days passed before a recall was issued. In that instance, one infant even died.

    For all 30 voluntary recalls in our sample, after FDA first became aware that an adulterated or misbranded product could be in the food supply chain, it did not prescribe a timeline for each firm to initiate a recall. For two recalls, the firms did not initiate the recall of all potentially harmful products until 165 days and 81 days after FDA became aware of the potential contaminations. The delays in the firms’ recalls may have occurred because FDA did not have policies and procedures that instruct its recall staff to establish set timeframes for (1) FDA to request that firms voluntarily recall their products and (2) firms to initiate voluntary food recalls. As a result, consumers remained at risk of illness or death for several weeks after FDA knew of potentially hazardous food.

     

    For example: 

     

    • In a recall involving nut butter at least 14 people became ill with a strain of Salmonella indistinguishable from or linked to the strain found at the firm’s manufacturing facility. 165 days passed from the date FDA identified the potentially adulterated product and the date the firm initiated a voluntary food recall. See Attachment A for a timeline of events for this recall.
    • In a series of recalls involving various cheese products, at least nine people became ill from Listeria monocytogenes, including one infant who died. According to FDA records, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) also linked two fetal losses to these illnesses. 81 days passed from the date FDA became aware of the adulterated product and the date the firm had voluntarily recalled all affected products. See Attachment B for a timeline of events for this recall.

    And in conclusion, the memo reiterates its finding that there are inadequate policies in place to take prompt actions in order to initiate a recall, and that consumers remained at risk because of that.

    FDA does not have adequate policies and procedures to ensure that firms take prompt and effective action in initiating voluntary food recalls. As a result, consumers remained at risk of illness or death for several weeks after FDA was aware of a potentially hazardous food in the supply chain.

     

    We suggest that FDA revise its policies and procedures to instruct recall staff to establish set timeframes for (1) FDA to request that firms voluntarily recall their products and (2) firms to initiate voluntary food recalls.

    * * *

    In summary, everyone should feel good about the precision in which the government runs its programs, especially as it relates to the health and safety of an entire nation.

    Here is Attachment A, which walks through the timeline for the Salmonella finding.

    And attachment B, which walks through the timeline of the Listeria finding.

  • A Donald Trump Voter Went To See Him Speak. Protesters Broke His Nose.

    Authored by Juan Hernandez, originally posted at The Washington Post

    This isn't how politics is supposed to work in the United States.

    SANTA CLARA, Calif. — Last Thursday, I left work about 5 p.m. and drove to the San Jose Convention Center to hear Donald Trump speak.

    I’ve been voting for conservative candidates for 15 years and a registered Republican since 2015. Now that the general election is underway, I believe Trump is the best candidate to fix our country’s many problems, and I believe he’s going to be the next commander in chief. So I was excited to hear him, and to show my support. Walking into the rally with a friend, I was a little wary: Trump’s speech to the California Republican convention in Burlingame had been disrupted by protesters, and I wasn’t sure whether to expect a similar scene in San Jose. But we got to the event early, and we must have been inside already by the time a crowd of protesters gathered in the streets near the convention center.

    The speech really got me energized. I got a new sense of appreciation and respect for Trump after a Bernie Sanders supporter interrupted him with a sign. Trump didn’t blink: “Darling, there’s no way he can win, but keep your sign high,” he said. That is the president that I want. It was great being around so many Republicans — in the Bay Area, we don’t have a lot of that, so it was great to feel the camaraderie of being part of the GOP.

    My trouble began once the rally was over.

    My friend and I joined a crowd of Trump supporters who had all left the convention center around the same time. The garage where we had parked our car was right next to the building, but police were directing everyone around the block to another garage entrance instead. The farther we walked, the fewer Trump fans were with us — people began peeling off to go to restaurants or bars in the area, or to other garages nearby.

    And suddenly, there were protesters everywhere. Some were holding Mexican flags, or burning American ones. They were yelling “F— Trump!” at us and cornering us. Some of them started grabbing Trump supporters — they were going up and slugging people, sucker-punching people, just picking random people out. As much as we wanted to help, because our fellow Republicans were getting hit, I knew any moment that could be me. So my friend and I just kept walking — sometimes, we’d be running. We saw police standing nearby, but they didn’t do anything. That scared me, because I thought, “Okay, if I’m next, there’s going to be no cops.”

    About a block from the garage entrance, we turned down the street and found a line of protesters standing in our way. To get back to our car, we’d have to go through them. My friend and I were wearing “Make America Great Again” Trump hats. We were targets, and I was terrified. I could feel it coming — they would look at me and start walking up to me.

    Before we could make it into the garage, four or five men surrounded me, and another four surrounded my friend. They just started swinging. We swung back as best as we could. My main thing was I didn’t want to fall; I didn’t want to be knocked down. I’m not a big guy, but I can defend myself as best I can if it’s one on one — but not when they have so much anger against us.

    One of the blows caught my nose, and blood just started pouring out. That kind of stunned them, and they backed off a quick second. My adrenaline kicked in; I felt punches on my head, and I felt the punch that hit my nose, but I was in survival mode by then, and I didn’t realize until later how much it hurt. I called my friend, “Okay, let’s go!”

    We ran into the parking garage, and we thought we were safe, but there were another few dozen protesters there, too. We got in our car and headed toward the exit. Some protesters jumped on the cars in front of us, but we eventually made it out. My friend drove me to the emergency room because my nose was pouring blood. I had a broken nose, and because I was covered with scratches, I had to get a tetanus shot, too. It took a lot out of me, much more than I realized at first; my headaches and soreness didn’t start to go away until a week later.

    I still can’t believe how poorly the police handled the protests. I live by Levi’s Stadium, where the Super Bowl was. They had every single cop out there. Yet knowing the violence that’s been breaking out near Trump rallies, San Jose wasn’t prepared for it last week? So the Los Angeles chapter of Log Cabin Republicans held a news conference back in San Jose on Wednesday, to get some answers from the city’s mayor, Sam Liccardo, and its police department about why they let me and other people get attacked and only made a few arrests.

    The whole thing made me angry. Here in Northern California, I feel like I’m a unicorn: I’m a gay Hispanic who’s a Republican. It was much harder to come out as a Trump supporter than it was to come out as gay — the minute you say you’re for Trump, everyone comes at you — but this has pushed me out of the closet about it completely.

    I should be able to vote for whom I want, and I shouldn’t have to deal with violence to go hear my candidate speak. If people really want to protest at rallies, they should do it peacefully. I have a young niece and nephew, and I don’t want them to think this is how politics work in the United States. We can’t let our freedom of speech and our freedom of assembly be tarnished by politicians like those in San Jose who do not have our safety at heart.

  • Sterling Volatility Explodes To Record High As Brexit Looms

    With two polls being unleashed on the markets today indicating the largest lead for Brexit over Bremain yet with regard the UK referendum, it seems FX traders at least have begun to wake up to the short-term uncertainties a "leave" vote may entail. A short-term measure of expected price swings for the pound climbed for a third week as traders sought protection as two-week implied volatility, a period that covers the June 23 voting date, closed at its highest on record today.

    With just 13 days left, things are not looking good for Cameron and his cronies…

    • U.K. Poll on EU Shows 45% Remain, 55% Leave: ORB/Independent
    • "LEAVE" ON 53 PCT, "REMAIN" ON 47 PCT BEFORE BRITAIN'S EU REFERENDUM – SKY NEWS

    And it is having an effect…

     

    It seems this "wait til the last minute too panic hedge" behavior is not unusual in the new normal as Credit Suisse describes the same occurred last year in the lead up to Grexit...In the case of Brexit, equity markets waiting until last minute to price in equity risk premium similar to Grexit last year?

    If this is anything like the “Grexit” catalyst last year, equity markets may wait until the last minute to price in the appropriate risk premium.

     

    As you can see from the EFA vol chart below, even though “Grexit” was a well-known and well-anticipated catalyst last year, EFA 1M implied vol was still trading as low as 11.7% the week before Greece’s June 30th IMF repayment deadline.

     

     

    EFA 1M implied vol ended up surging 8 vol pts in the final week before the deadline and another 3 vol pts after a surprise referendum was called over the July 4th weekend last year.

     

    And it wasn’t just EFA. VIX also didn’t start reacting to “Grexit” risk until the final week when it jumped from 12 to 19.

     

    Will the same thing happen this time? If so, I think it makes sense to hedge now when you can (and when it’s cheap!), not when you have to in the final days before the deadline when implied vols will have already climbed higher.

    Is this merely another symptom of the now deeply embedded belief that markets are invincible thanks to The Central Bank Put? Why hedge? Why reduce exposure? When you know… because The Fed promised… that if stocks fall, they will magically levitated to confirm that all is well and the central planners are in control. But, as Charles Hugh-Smith recently noted, by making the stock market the only game in town, the Powers That Be can no longer afford to let it decline for any reason…

    This new rule simplifies trading, confidence and sentiment: Bulls can now relax, knowing that the market will never be allowed to decline. Sentiment can stay pegged at "extreme greed" forever, and there is no longer any need to hedge long positions because markets will only move higher.

     

    Volatility will drift lower because any decline will be mere signal noise, only of interest to high-frequency trading (HFT) machines skimming pennies.

     

    Too much is riding on stocks to let them drift lower. The stock market is not only the critical signaling device that tells the world all is well and everything is getting better every day, in every way, it's also the collateral for all sorts of highly profitable schemes, and the financial foundation of the institutions that are supposed to fund pensions and fulfill insurance redemptions.

     

    And even more important, the stock market is the money machine that enables CEOs and top management to push their stocks higher with buy-backs and then cash out their personal stock options for glorious millions.

     

    By making the stock market the only game in town, the Powers That Be can no longer afford to let it decline for any reason: technical, fundamental, quantitative, it no longer matters–stocks must drift higher forever without disruption.

     

    This is what happens when you strip out volatility and game the system: the system loses all natural resiliency and becomes increasingly brittle and fragile. The only way to make sure it doesn't tremble and shatter into pieces is to guarantee that no decline will be allowed.

    Of course then you don't have a market–you have a simulacrum market, a phony fragile shell propped up for PR purposes.

    That is until the powers that be allow a nation to exercise their own sovereignty, to vote not for a centralized totalitarian state but for democracy and the right to freely crash their economy (if Osborne and Cameron are to be believed). Will a Brexit vote be allowed to spoil the party? Perhaps an increasing number of Brits have had enough of 'Project Fear' and are uninterested in what the US president's view on their freedom is…

  • Gawker Files For Bankruptcy

    Moments ago the financially challenged tabloid nemesis of Peter Thiel, Nick Denton’s Gawker Media, filed for bankrutpcy – an outcome predicted by many as inevitable – listing assets between $50 and $100 million, and liabilities between $100 and $500 million.

    No matter on which side of the Thiel-Denton debate one sides, we doubt many tears will be shed as yet another chapter in “new media” comes to a close.

    The WSJ adds that the company will be put for sale in bankruptcy auction, which will begin with an opening bid of $100 million from the digital media company and publisher Ziff Davis LLC, according to a person familiar with the matter. The sale was triggered after the judge overseeing the invasion-of-privacy case brought by Hulk Hogan—whose real name is Terry Bollea—declined to issue a stay pending Gawker’s appeal. That required the company to put up a $50 million bond.

    Why is the company filing now? Simple: to make Hulk Hogan’s aka Terry Bollea’s $130 million claim part of the prepetition, unsecured liabiltiies.

     

    “Whatcha gonna do when Chapter 11 runs wild on you”

     

    Proceeds from a sale will go into a fund to finance further litigation costs and cover whatever damages may ultimately be leveled following the appeals process, which could take years to resolve. Gawker has said that it expects to ultimately prevail.

    Whatever money is left at the end of the legal process will go to Nick Denton, Gawker’s founder who owns most of the company, and other shareholders. Earlier this year, Columbus Nova Technology Partners took an undisclosed minority stake in the media company as it shored up its books for the trial.

    Full filing below:

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Today’s News 10th June 2016

  • "Deliberately Overblown" Brexit Fears Backfire

    Submitted by John Browne via Euro Pacific Capital,

    As the June 23rd BREXIT (the UK-wide referendum to leave the EU) vote draws near, the polls indicate a close result. Those urging a vote for the UK to remain inside the EU are suggesting increasingly dire economic consequences that would follow a yes vote by the British people to leave. Voices from London, Brussels, and Washington have all put immense pressure on British voters to bend to the will of the elites.

    To listen to their commentary one would think that apocalypse was just around the corner. But is there any substance to their warnings?

    The Pro-EU membership camp is led by Prime Minister David Cameron, supported by most of his cabinet, the Bank of England, the BBC and the massive support from the UK and EU governments that have funded enormous advertising campaigns against separation. Given this weight of their power, it is amazing how strong the support for a British exit (BREXIT) has remained.

    When Britain first joined the European Economic Community (the precursor to the EU) in 1973, the primary motivation was the hopes of increasing British trade through participation in the world’s largest free-trade zone. However, the hope that the union would simply be a free-trading zone of sovereign countries has morphed into a drive for an EU superstate that has relentlessly pushed for greater regulations on businesses and people and greater control of local laws that have nothing to do with trade.

    It has been kept remarkably quiet, for instance, that the EU intends to divide the UK into eleven administrative regions, all reporting directly to Brussels. Although Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will remain intact as individual national regions, England will be split into eight regions. Worse still, the coastal counties of England will be teamed with regions in Portugal, France, the Netherlands and Germany, where they will remain in a minority role. Even the English Channel is to be renamed. Very little mention is of the EU proposal for EU-wide ID and tax numbers, likely heralding a heavy EU taxation regime.

    Likewise, the proposals to create EU-wide armed forces have been put quietly on the back burner. England has a long and proud history of struggling for its sovereignty. In just the past two centuries she has stood alone against Napoleon and Hitler, before inspiring other nations to join the fray. The presence of French or German armed forces used to support a European police force in the UK will not sit well with the English.

    All this and many more threats to the British people have been kept largely quiet. Instead, the main activities of the Pro-EU group have been concentrated on the economic and monetary catastrophe that would face the UK if it were to cut itself off from trading with the EU. Some call this, ‘Project Fear’. The actual underlying facts paint a somewhat different picture, one that makes the Pro-EU case appear misleading, even deliberately so.

    The basic argument is that with about 50 percent of its current trade with the EU, the UK would face a catastrophic economic and monetary collapse if it left the EU. As a threat, this sounds potentially devastating. Doubtless it has persuaded some. But in the light of reality, a different and far less worrying image emerges.

    The UK has the fifth largest national economy in the world, according to 2015 figures compiled by the International Monetary Fund. In its present state of economic stagnation, the EU can ill-afford to lose the UK. According to the March 2016 Statistical Bulletin from the Office for National Statistics, the UK has had a negative trade balance in goods with the EU that has averaged about $8 billion a month this first quarter. If the UK were to leave without being able to negotiate an independent trade deal, the EU economy might shrink by some $96 billion a year. The UK was the second largest net contributor to the EU budget last year. It follows that the 8 English regions (with Scotland, Wales and N. Ireland considered as 'relatively poor') may in aggregate be the second largest suppliers of future intra-EU money transfers from the so-called 'rich' to the poorer southern and eastern regions of Europe. In that sense, the EU needs the UK more than the other way round.

    The Pro-EU camp ignore the trade balance issue completely and threaten, as did President Obama, that the UK would be left out in the cold, like Switzerland, and unable to negotiate its way out of a disaster. Switzerland is not an EU member and has an economy of less than a quarter the size of the UK’s. And yet from 2009-2013 she exported, on average, 4.6 times the value per person to the EU than does the UK (The Truth About Trade Outside the EU, William Dartmouth MEP, June 2015). With a negative EU trade balance, why would the UK be unable to negotiate, from outside, a trade agreement at least as good as that achieved by Switzerland?

    [As an aside, over dinner many years ago, my occasional Lords and Commons golfing partner Dennis Thatcher asked me how the UK would survive alone in an era when world power blocks and corporations were getting bigger? I replied, “In the same way as Switzerland.” He retorted while hitting the table hard with his hand, “That’s just what Margaret thinks!”]

    Further, the EU negotiates international trade agreements under the auspices of the World Trade Organization (WTO), in the primary interests of the EU, not of the UK. England has flourished by trading globally, especially with the U.S. and the British Commonwealth. The EU has no trade agreements yet with China or Japan. Outside the EU, the UK would be enabled to negotiate freely to trade with the entire world and be unfettered by the EU where it has a muted voice of 1 among 28 members. Furthermore, free of burdensome and costly EU regulations, the British economy likely would be re-energized, particularly among the vital job-creating small business sector.

    In addition to economic collapse, the Pro-EU camp postulates that the British pound sterling, still one of the top five global trading currencies, would plummet following a BREXIT. However, many informed observers believe the international monetary system is on the cusp of a major collapse. In these circumstances, the vital interests of the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and even the Bank of China would be to steady the ship to avert a collapse of fiat currency. Unimaginable amounts of central bank money could be deployed to save the pound, rendering it a false scare.

    On the other hand, although the UK is not a member of the euro, a BREXIT indirectly could threaten the euro, now the world’s second currency.

    Already a number of EU members are experiencing anti-EU sentiments among their people. The United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), which forced the BREXIT vote, is not alone. It is part of a sizable block, styled the Europe for Freedom and Direct Democracy (EFDD) group, in the EU parliament. It is comprised of representatives from the UK, France, Sweden, Italy, Poland, Lithuania and the Czech Republic. In addition, countries like Greece, Spain and Portugal are becoming very unhappy about the implications of Eurozone membership. A for BREXIT vote could ignite an implosion within the Eurozone rather than being a threat to Sterling. This may be what worries the international central banking and political elite most. It has led directly to massive global elite support for Cameron’s Project Fear.

    If the British public wises up to David Cameron’s game of fear and vote for BREXIT, there will be some short-term shock and disruption in currencies, equities, bonds, precious metals and possibly employment. However, the global central bank and political elites could be expected to move very fast to avoid the development of deeper problems. Negotiations likely would be concluded very quickly to calm things down with minimal damage to the UK economy or its currency.

  • The Pentagon's Great Wall Of Impotence

    Authored by Pepe Escobar, originally posted at RT.com,

    No one ever lost money betting on the Pentagon refraining from exceptionalist rhetoric.

    Once again the current Pentagon supremo, certified neocon Ash Carter, did not disappoint at the Shangri-La Dialogue – the annual, must-go regional security forum in Singapore attended by top defense ministers, scholars and business executives from across Asia.

    Context is key. The Shangri-La Dialogue is organized by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), which is essentially a pro-Anglo-American think tank. And it takes place in the privileged aircraft carrier of imperial geostrategic interests in South East Asia: Singapore.

    As expressed by neocon Carter, Pentagon rhetoric – faithful to its own estimation of China as the second biggest “existential threat” to the US (Russia is first) – revolves around the same themes; US military might and superiority is bound to last forever; we are the “main underwriter of Asian security” for, well, forever; and China better behave in the South China Sea – or else.

    This is all embedded in the much ballyhooed but so far anemic “pivoting to Asia” advanced by the lame duck Obama administration – but bound to go on overdrive in the event Hillary Clinton becomes the next tenant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

    Real threats are predictably embedded in the rhetoric. According to Carter, if Beijing reclaims land in the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, “it will result in actions being taken by the both United States and … by others in the region.”

    What’s left for China, in Pentagonese, is just to be a member of a hazy “principled security network” for Asia – which will also help protect the East against “Russia’s worrying actions”. Carter mentioned“principled” no less than 37 times in his speech. “Principled” cheerleaders so far include Japan, India, the Philippines, Vietnam and Australia.

    So here’s an instant translation: we do a NATO in Asia; we control it; you will answer to us; and then we encircle you – and Russia – for good. If China says no, that’s simple. Carter proclaimed Beijing will erect a “Great Wall of self-isolation” in the South China Sea.

    If this is the best Pentagon planners have to counteract the Russia-China strategic partnership, they’d better go back to the classroom. In elementary school.

    Navigate in freedom, dear vassals

    Predictably, the South China Sea was quite big at Shangri-La. The South China Sea, the throughway of trillions of US dollars in annual trade, doubles as home to a wealth of unexplored oil and gas. Stagnated and increasingly irrelevant Japan, via its Defense Minister Gen. Nakatani, even advanced the Japanese would help Southeast Asian nations build their “security capabilities” to deal with what he called “unilateral” and “coercive” Chinese actions in the South China Sea. Cynics could not help to draw similarities with Imperial Japan’s Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere.

    The Beijing delegation kept its cool – to a point. Rear Admiral Guan Youfei stressed, “The US action to take sides is not agreed by many countries.” Youfei – the head of the Chinese office of international military cooperation – did not refrain though from condemning a “Cold War mentality” by the usual suspects.

    As for Japan, China’s Foreign Ministry detailed that “countries outside the region should stick to their promises and not make thoughtless remarks about issues of territorial sovereignty.” Japan has absolutely nothing to do with the South China Sea.

    Beijing’s reclamation work on reefs in the South China Sea naturally put it in direct conflict with Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei. So US meddling – under the convenient cover of“freedom of navigation” – had to be inevitable. “Freedom of navigation” operations are a silly intimidation game in which a US Navy ship or plane passes by a Chinese-claimed island in the South China Sea.

    It was up to Admiral Sun Jianguo, Deputy Chief of the Joint Staff Department of China’s Central Military Commission, to cut to the chase, stressing “the provocation of certain countries” and adding that “selfish interests” have led to the South China Sea issue becoming “overheated”. He slammed the Pentagon for double standards and “irresponsible behavior”. And he slammed the Philippines for taking the conflict to a dubious UN arbitration court after breaching a bilateral agreement with China;“We do not make trouble but we have no fear of trouble.”

    The Chinese position prefers dialogue and cooperation – and Jianguo re-stressed it, calling for ASEAN to make a move. In fact China has already reached what is called a four-point consensus with Brunei, Cambodia and Laos on the South China Sea two months ago. The Philippines are a much harder nut to crack – as the Pentagon is taking no prisoners to lead Manila “from behind”.

    Even Vietnam, via Deputy Defense Minister Nguyen Chi Vinh, made it clear – in the same plenary session as Admiral Jianguo – that Vietnam prefers solutions via the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea as well as negotiation between China and ASEAN.

    Bend over to our rules – or else

    After Shangri-La’s rhetorical excesses, the action moved to Beijing, the site of the 8th China-US Strategic and Development Dialogue. That’s the annual talkfest launched in 2009 by Obama and then Chinese President Hu Jintao.

    Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Zheng Zeguang painted a rosy picture, stressing the exchange of“candid, in-depth views on important and sensitive issues of shared concern.” Chinese Ambassador to the US Cui Tiankai once again needed to point out that the relationship is just “too important” to be “hijacked” by the South China Sea. And yet this is exactly the Pentagon’s agenda.

    Beijing though won’t be derailed. As State Councilor Yang Jiechi put it, ASEAN-China dialogue is progressing via what Beijing calls the “dual-track” approach, according to which disputes are negotiated between the parties directly involved. That implies no Washington interference.

    Beyond what is discussed either at Shangri-La or at the China-US dialogue, the Big Picture is clear. ‘Exceptionalistan’ planners have molded a narrative where China is being forced to make a choice; either you bend over to “our” rules – as in the current unipolar geostrategic game – or else.

    Well, Beijing has already made its own choice; and that entails a multipolar world of sovereign nations with no primus inter pares. The Beijing leadership under Xi Jinping clearly sees how the so-called international“order”, actually disorder, is a rigged system set up at the end of WWII.

    Wily Chinese diplomacy – and trade – knows how to use the system to advance Chinese national interests. That’s how modern China became the “savior” of global turbo-capitalism. But that does not mean a resurgent China will forever comply with these extraneous “rules” – not to mention the morality lessons. Beijing knows ‘Exceptionalistan’ would not agree even to divide the spoils in a geopolitical spheres-of-influence arrangement. Plan A in Washington is containment – with possibly dangerous ramifications. There is no Plan B.

    The bottom line – thinly disguised by the somewhat polite responses to Pentagon threats – is that Beijing simply won’t accept anymore a geopolitical disorder that it did not create. The Chinese could not give a damn to the New World Order (NWO) dreamed up by selected ‘Masters of the Universe’. Beijing is engaged in building a new, multipolar order. No wonder – alongside with strategic partner Russia – they are and will continue to be the Pentagon’s top twin threat.

  • A Day In The Life Of Several Hundred Laid Off Nomura Traders

    Back in April, Japan's largest brokerage, Nomura, announced that it was quitting the European equity business. The decision was a cost cutting measure, and was made easier by the fact that the European operation hadn't made a profit since 2010.

    Nomura isn't alone, Investment banks across the globe are cutting equity traders as a result of the current trading environment.

    The following is what it was like for a group of London traders the day Nomura made the announcement that their services were no longer required, as chronicled by Bloomberg.

    * * *

    The fact that the division had only made one annual pretax profit since being bought from bankrupt Lehman Brothers Holdings in 2008 created an environment where traders would have to filter out the rumors of impending cuts quite frequently. However on April 11, it wasn't business as usual.

    At One Angel Lane, Nomura’s stylish, eco-friendly European headquarters, employees have learned to filter out rumors of impending cuts. The division has only made an annual pretax profit once since it was bought from bankrupt Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in October 2008 — a fact so often mentioned one half-expects it to be printed on employees’ business cards.

     

    On April 11, though, the noise was louder than usual. A senior executive had let slip to a colleague at a barbecue that he was dreading the following week because the bank was shutting down equities. By the time media reports of unspecified job cuts in the U.S. and Europe appeared at lunchtime, all semblance of work had ground to a halt. Desk heads asked their managers what was going on. According to one of those doing the asking, they were told there was nothing to worry about.

     

    That changed early the next morning when e-mails went round ordering staff to attend a compulsory meeting. Research analysts and salespeople caught the elevators up to the 11th floor; traders congregated on the third. By 9 a.m., it was official. Everyone was given an “at risk” letter, in which the firm offered to help them find alternative roles over the next 45 days, but they knew it was typically just a formality.

    After listening to speeches by senior managers and human resources personnel, everyone was told to gather their belongings, leave key cards at reception, and exit the building. Most made their way to All Bar One and The Folly, the only pubs open in the city of London at that hour, to have a pint, and perhaps even to express a sigh of relief that there was no longer a daily worry about whether or not a job would be there the next morning.

    The Folly, a pub operated by Drake and Morgan Bars and Restaurants

    They made their way in dribs and drabs. Hundreds of displaced bankers, shuffling up Suffolk Lane to All Bar One and along Upper Thames Street toward the Folly, the only pubs in the City of London open that early on an overcast Tuesday morning.

     

    The shell-shocked men and women sipping pints and consoling each other had become part of a growing population. Faced with a toxic blend of zero-interest rates, stiffer capital requirements and a collapse in trading revenue, banks including Barclays Plc, Deutsche Bank AG and Credit Suisse Group AG have announced large cuts to their European operations in recent months. Even U.S. firms, with higher profitability, are trimming staff.

     

    Among the bankers who stayed in the pubs until late in the evening, seemingly attempting to stave off the inevitable by remaining in the financial district, there were at least some expressions of relief. Nomura had already conducted one round of restructuring, in 2012, following the appointment of Koji Nagai as chief executive officer. Unlike his predecessor, Nagai was openly skeptical about Nomura’s place in a saturated and tightly regulated European market. The whiff of insecurity pervaded the trading floor.

     

    The bank went on a cost-cutting drive and, under the direction of a new compliance team hired from UBS Group AG, started to clamp down on even minor breaches to company rules. Staff members were chastised for sending presentations to their personal e-mail accounts to work on over the weekend. One group of traders was threatened with dismissal after being caught on closed-circuit TV stealing candy from a vending machine.

    Knowing their fate was one thing, however one important question remained unanswered: would those that were let go still receive a bonus. Figuring that the financial year finished prior to being let go, many assumed that a bonus would still be provided – sadly, they were wrong.

    For the newly unemployed, one question loomed large: Would they still get a bonus? Nomura’s financial year finished at the end of March — well before any decision was announced regarding job cuts. Some traders and bankers assumed that, since they’d worked a full year, they would still receive an award.

     

    They were wrong. On May 9, Nomura wrote to staff notifying them they would get nothing. Discretionary bonuses, the letters pointed out, were based on factors including future value to the company. Some bankers are now considering challenging the decision, citing a 2000 case in which a departing Nomura prop trader successfully sued the firm for 1.35 million pounds ($2 million). Nomura declined to comment on the bonus decision.

    To top everything off, in addition to being fired and told no bonus would be paid out, some traders were summoned back to the office to face a disciplinary hearing. In trying to prepare for a future job search, they forwarded themselves documents they felt may be needed in the future, such as research reports, excel models, and even in one case, even a list of clients. Not only did the bank clamp down on those cases, which as a result will inevitably make it more difficult to find work in the future for those involved, the bank has yet to respond to those that simply asked for some work documents that may help in a future job search, even though Nomura had pulled out of Europe.

    A second letter landed on the doorsteps of a handful of employees later that month, summoning them back to the office for a disciplinary hearing. In the hours before the cuts were announced, about five analysts had forwarded themselves documents they might need if they lost their jobs: research reports, Excel models and, in at least one case, a list of clients.

     

    Nomura, like most banks, prohibits employees from forwarding any work documents to personal e-mail accounts. In tense meetings, the individuals explained themselves and asked for leniency. The bank is now considering what action, if any, to take. Possibilities include firing them for gross misconduct, thereby depriving them of severance pay and making it hard to find a job elsewhere; or handing out written warnings that will show up in a reference to a prospective employer. The analysts, who range from a junior associate to an industry veteran, fear that any measures will hamper their efforts to find alternative positions at a time when the industry is retrenching. Nomura declined to comment on the situation.

     

    Separately, several former employees have asked the company to provide them with work documents they say will help them find roles elsewhere, such as their proprietary models and databases. They argue there is no reason for Nomura to refuse since it will no longer be competing in Europe. So far, no decision has been reached.

    In the rush to leave One Angel Lane, many employees didn't have time to grab all of their belongings. Old family photographs, items of clothing and professional mementos lie in storage awaiting collection, a reminder of the human cost when a business fails.

     

     

     

  • On Death And Taxes: "The Greed Of The Government Can Never Be Overstated"

    Submitted by Jeremiah Johnson (nom de plume of retired Green Beret of the United States Army Special Forces) via SHTFPlan.com,

    Readers, you’re awake to the horrors of the Federal Government, our rapidly-declining GDP and ever-increasing debts.  Trillions of dollars have been stolen, in the form of appropriations and programs that funnel directly from the tax-base: the fat “cash-cow” that the government suckles from.  The taxes are life-sustaining to the government juggernaut, managed by the ever self-serving “representatives” of Congress who approve pay raises for themselves, immunity from prosecution from (what was formerly) insider trading, and exonerate themselves from any and all ethics violations.

    Taxes keep the government going, keep the system emplaced and you the citizen in your place, from birth to death.  The website ivn.us reports the breakdown for the federal government’s feedings:

    Personal income taxes               47.4%

    Corporate income taxes             34.1%

    Social insurance taxes                9.9%

    Tariffs/gas taxes/fees                 8.5%

    Ben Franklin summarized the position of the average citizen two centuries ago:

    “In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.”

    Franklin was correct; however, he should have reversed the order, because taxes can both bring on death and still haunt the deceased after their passing.  The best example of this is the death tax, where a person’s estate is assessed after their death.  Their heirs better pay the tax man!  Yes, how exactly does all of that work?  The deceased individual worked all of their lives, paying income taxes both federal and state, paying off their house and mortgage, paying their property tax.

    If they paid for their house in full, and all related property taxes, then why is it assessed for a death tax?

    The death tax is labeled conveniently as an “inheritance tax,” much in the manner that conquest and possession of more property is done by a municipality.  Labeled aseptically as “annexation,” it is where the nabobs of the “grand council” of the municipality vote to take for themselves (sorry, the municipality) more land/territory.  It’s all within their laws, and everyone smiles and pays the additional taxes happily ever after.

    This year more than $3.4 trillion in federal taxes are estimated to be taken in by the federal government.  Add to this the $1.5 trillion in local and state taxes, and this figure amounts to more than 31% of the nation’s income.  Meanwhile look at the tax dodges that the Clinton’s perform, such as the multiple-listed addresses for corporations in the state of Delaware, and the undeclared revenues for their books and speaking engagements.

    On December 16, 1773, American colonists disguised as Indians destroyed 342 cases of tea stored on board 3 cargo ships of the British navy.  The price of tea included a tax of 30 pence per pound in England.  In the American colonies, that tax was only 3 pence per pound, and yet the colonists wouldn’t take it: they acted.  A far cry from today, where the citizens just accept all of it complacently and without more than an anguished bleat.

    “The only difference between death and taxes is that death doesn’t get worse every time Congress meets.”

    -Will Rogers

    For the most part that is true, with the exception of the inheritance taxes, in which the dead person’s estate is divided up: the heirs either pay or lose the property that has already been paid for and property taxes paid year after year!  If you have a million dollars in the bank saved over 20 years, and you suddenly die, if the taxes have already been paid year after year on your income, then why do they double-dip and tax you after your death?

    It is all about control and dominion.  Government produces nothing, takes everything it can, and consumes all of it with wanton, avaricious gluttony.  The greed of government can never be overstated.  There are only politicians, no leaders, and those who misrepresent themselves and the Constitution in order to manipulate us and claim to represent us. They only represent themselves.  The fiat currency and the Petrodollar are already leveraged to the hilt with a negative balance after the phony, inflated, CBO-doctored GDP.

    We have no leaders, only rulers.  The communist truism is correct: all authority comes from the barrel of a gun.  Taxes are a means with which to destroy wealth and property passed from one generation to the next, and control the masses, subjugating them and dominating them via the color of law that make them always answerable to a superficially-benevolent but in reality malevolent government.  All governments are vampires, and the blood they drain from the people is the blood of their taxes.  We have taxation with misrepresentation, while these miscreants continue to wine, dine, and fete themselves on their trips to Martha’s Vineyard and Cozumel.  On death and taxes, only the former allows you to escape the latter, and not even then.


  • China Orders 1,000 Heavy Transport Aircraft "Based On The Experience Of The United States And Russia"

    As tensions escalate to dangerous levels in the South China Sea and in eastern Europe, an interesting decision has been made be the Chinese government.

    According to Sputnik, back in January the People's Liberation Army Air Force was preparing to develop a new fleet of stealth fighters and heavy transport aircraft. The heavy transport aircraft, the Xian Y-20 transport, was going to be built in order to give Beijing a "fast and reliable platform" to deliver arms and soldiers over long distances.

    Model Y-20 Transport

    During a technology exhibition in Beijing, Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) elaborated on the governments plans for the Y-20. Although originally thought that Beijing would want only 400,  "More than 1,000 Y-20s will be needed" said Zhu Qian, head of AVIC's large aircraft development office – the reason? "Based on the experience of the United States and Russia" Zhu says.

    Now that's an interesting nugget of information. So due to the fact that the US and Russia are at odds, China needs 1,000 heavy transport aircraft – why would that be, is China planning on getting involved if ever the US and Russia got into a military dispute?

    The Y-20 weighs roughly 220 tons, has four turbofan engines, and can carry up to 66 tons of cargo at a range of about 3,230 miles. This means the heavy transport aircraft can reach everywhere in Europe and Asia, the US state of Alaska, Australia, and North Africa.

    So to summarize, due to what's happening between Russia and the United States, China has ordered nearly triple the amount of heavy transport aircraft it originally intended so that it could take tanks and other military equipment anywhere in Europe.

    Which reminds us of what we reported earlier today. As China sailed a warship by disputed islands that are claimed to be controlled by Japan, Japanese officials also stated that a two Russian vessels were also spotted in the contested zone. Something tells us that there may be a military alliance in the works between Russia and China, and that could present significant problems for the US as it tries to bully both simultaneously.

  • State Department Delays More Clinton-Related Records Requests… Up To 75 Years

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blutzkrieg blog,

    Obstruction anyone?

    Recall that a couple of days ago in the post, Obama Administration Delays Release of Hillary Clinton TPP Emails Until After the Election, we learned:

    Trade is a hot issue in the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign. But correspondence from Hillary Clinton and her top State Department aides about a controversial 12-nation trade deal will not be available for public review — at least not until after the election. The Obama administration abruptly blocked the release of Clinton’s State Department correspondence about the so-called Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), after first saying it expected to produce the emails this spring.

    Well there’s more to this story. International Business Times reports:

    As the election season accelerates, requests for public information from the State Department surrounding communications from former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have hit speed bumps.

     

    A review of publicly available records requests from users of the transparency site MuckRock shows that inquiries related to the Democratic presidential nominee are more likely to be delayed until after the election than other requests to the State Department — a trend government watchdogs say highlights the challenges the government has faced under President Obama to live up to its transparency aims.

     

    Though the files reviewed by IBT constitute just a fraction of the tens of thousands of inquiries the State Department processes annually — too few, experts said, to establish any sign of deliberate obstruction — they underscore the difficulty of probing Clinton’s tenure as the top U.S. diplomat, even as interest in her record mounts.

     

    Four of the five Clinton-related records requests maintained at MuckRock have been given approximate due dates after the election in early November. These include a request filed by International Business Times Senior Investigations Editor David Sirota regarding Clinton’s contested record on trade issues, reported Monday. The fifth request has passed its estimated May completion date and has yet to be updated.

     

    By contrast, of 20 Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests updated in the past three weeks by the State Department, only half had been postponed until after the 2016 presidential election, receiving estimated completion dates in October or earlier.

     

    Though the agency has fulfilled numerous Clinton-related requests in the past year, spokespeople declined to specify how many outstanding inquiries into Clinton records remain or how many responses are due before the election.

     

    Despite adding dozens of staffers to its FOIA offices, the State Department argued in court that it would take 75 years to complete a review of documents related to the Republican National Committee’s sweeping request of records for former Clinton aides.

     

    But it isn’t all external pressures hobbling the State Department. A scathing agency audit earlier this year into the agency’s processes found “procedural weaknesses” leading to “inaccurate and incomplete” responses. The State Department, on average, takes the longest among government agencies to complete simple requests: 111 days.

     

    Complicating matters is the fact that Clinton emails must face review not only from the State Department, but also from any other government agency that feels it has a stake in disclosure of the contents. The intelligence community has played a particularly active role in scrutinizing the cache, retroactively marking dozens of Clinton emails classified. More than 2,000 documents have been kept from public view over secrecy concerns.

    I’m sure there’s nothing there in the pubic interest.

    The White House is one of the government offices that gets to view documents, and watchdogs have accused the executive branch of delaying the release of politically sensitive material. Though Obama launched his presidency with a promise to be the “most transparent” in history, his administration has had a fitful record on openness — earlier this year, Vice News reported that executive officials worked to undermine congressional FOIA reforms.

    Of course, this appears to be part of a much larger effort to conceal who Hillary Clinton really is from the voting public. It’s the same reason she refuses to release her Wall Street speech transcripts — she needs to be able to pretend to be something she’s not during the election.

    Here’s another related example, also from International Business Times:

    Facing an increasingly tough primary fight against Bernie Sanders last October, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, now the presumptive Democratic nominee, tried to distance herself from her push to negotiate the controversial Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal during her time atop the State Department (2009-2013). After months of taking positions on the deal that were criticized — even by members of her own party — as vague, Clinton said the deal wasn’t what she’d hoped it might be.

     

    Since then she’s held fast on that position, weathering a primary fight that was anything but expected from the populist, self-described Democratic socialist Sanders, who has repeatedly railed against the TPP. At the same time, a review of the hardback edition of her memoir as secretary of state, “Hard Choices,” compared to the paperback — first noted by the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) — finds that segments of the book where Clinton describes an effort to convince American countries to join the TPP negotiations have been left out.

     

    We encouraged “all open-market democracies driving toward a more prosperous future to join negotiations with Asian nations on TPP, the trans-Pacific trade agreement,” the original version of the book reads in a two-page segment discussing a 2009 conference in El Salvador. Those two pages have been cut from the paperback version of the book, according to CEPR.

     

    Requests for comment sent to the Clinton campaign and Simon & Schuster, publisher of “Hard Choices,” were not immediately returned.

    hmm…

  • Peak Youth

    The world will experience “peak youth” in 2020 for the first time in human history, as the number of people aged over 65 is expected to outnumber those under 5 years old.

     

     

    As BofAML notes, a key implication of an aging population is that an economy’s savings rate tends to rise while increases in investments tend to decline.

    It is this aging global population that has thwarted the “war on deflation” in recent years (among other things like excess debt, deleveraging, and technical disruption)…

    Aging populations increase the need to save for a longer retirement and lead to higher healthcare costs (note that in the next 10 days, 112,000 people will reach retirement age in the US, Europe, and Japan).

    Source: BofAML

  • Peter Schiff Warns "This Is The Point Where The Fed's Real Problems Begin"

    Submitted by Peter Schiff via Euro Pacific Capital,

    Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: A Fed official walks into a bar and says the economy is improving and rate hikes are appropriate. The patrons order another round to celebrate. Then disappointing data comes out, the high fives stop, and the Fed official ducks out the back…only to come back the next day saying the same thing. Anyone who pays even the smallest attention to the financial media has experienced versions of this joke dozens of times. Yet every time the gag gets underway, we raise our glasses and expect the punch line to be different. But it never is. Last week was just the latest re-telling.
     
    For nearly a month the Fed’s bullish statements stoked optimism on the economy and raised expectations, based particularly on the most recent FOMC minutes, for a summer rate hike. But these hopes were dashed by the May non-farm payroll report, which reported the creation of only 38,000 jobs in May, the worst monthly performance in six years, based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The number missed Wall Street’s estimate by a staggering 120,000 jobs. If not for the 37,000 downward revision reported for April (160,000 jobs down to 123,000), May could have shown a contraction. This would have constituted a major black eye to the Obama Administration’s favorite talking point that its policies have led to 75 months of continuous job gains. (6/3/16, Democratic Policy & Communications Center).
     
    To make the report even stranger, the plunge in hiring was accompanied by a drop in the unemployment rate to just 4.7%. Of course the fall in the unemployment rate was a function of another major drop in the labor force participation rate to just 62.6%, matching the June 2015 rate, which was the lowest level since the late 1970s (BLS). So the unemployment rate did not fall because the unemployed found jobs, but because they stopped looking. The market reaction was swift and sharp, as it always has been when a fresh shot of cold water has been thrown in the face of market boosters. The dollar fell hard and gold rose sharply.
     
    But we can rest assured that despite any embarrassment that the Fed may be experiencing for having so gloriously misdiagnosed the current economic health, it will be right back at it in a few days, telling us about all the positive economic signs that are emerging and how it is ready and willing to start raising interest rates at the earliest opportune moment. Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren waited exactly 48 hours to start that campaign as he sounded bullish notes in a Monday speech in Finland. (6/6/16, Greg Robb, MarketWatch)
     
    Given how many times this scenario has unfolded, leading to the point where even reliable Fed apologists like CNBC’s Steve Liesman have begun questioning the Fed’s credibility, one wonders what the Fed hopes to achieve by continuously walking into the bar with a new smile. But this performance is the only policy tool it has left. The Fed appears to believe that perception makes reality, so it will never stop trying to create the rosiest perception possible. It may view its own credibility as expendable.
     
    There is also the possibility, however unlikely, that the Fed officials are not just trying to create growth through open-mouth operations, but that they actually believe that their policies are working, or are about to work. This would be as dogged a commitment to policy as medieval doctors had for bloodletting, which they thought was a useful therapy for a variety of ailments. Doctors at that time had all kinds of seemingly plausible reasons why the technique was effective. If the patient did improve after draining blood, it was taken as a sign of validation. But they would continue to apply the leeches even if the patient did not improve. Failure was simply a sign that more blood needed to be drained. Similarly, central bankers consider ultra-low, and even negative, interest rates as an ambiguous stimulant that will create growth when applied in large enough doses.
     
    But what if modern central bankers, much like medieval doctors, are operating on a wrong set of assumptions? We know now that draining blood creates conditions that actually decrease a patient’s ability to fight infection and recover. Perhaps, one day, bankers will come to a similarly delayed conclusion about how zero and negative interest rates have prevented a real recovery that would otherwise have naturally taken place.
     
    That’s because artificially low interest rates send false signals to the economy, prevent savings and investment, and encourage reckless borrowing and needless spending. They prevent the type of business and capital investment that is needed to create real and lasting economic growth. But don’t expect bankers, or their cheerleaders on Wall Street, the financial media, government, or academia, to ever make this admission. They do not believe in the power of free markets. They believe in government. Such a leap is simply beyond their powers of comprehension.
     
    But there is another cycle here that is much more influential on the current market dynamic and should be much easier to spot. When the Fed talks up the economy and promises rate increases, the dollar usually rallies. When the dollar rallies, U.S. multi-national corporate profits take a hit, and the market falls. When the market falls, economic confidence falls and puts pressure on the Fed to maintain easy policy. This is a loop that the Fed does not have the stomach to break.
     
    Because the Fed waited more than seven years to lift rates from zero, the cyclical "recovery" is already nearing its historical limit, if it's not already over. This could put the Fed into a position of raising rates into a weakening economy. Normally it does so when the economy is accelerating. Some identify this delay as the Fed's only policy error. But had it moved earlier, the recession would have simply arrived that much sooner. The Fed's actual policy error was thinking it could build a "recovery" on the twin supports of zero percent interest rates and QE, and then remove those props without toppling the “recovery.”
     
    But despite all this, there are those who still believe that the Fed will deliver two more rate hikes this year. Given the anemic growth over the past two quarters, the recent plunges in both the manufacturing and service sectors, average monthly non-farm payroll gains of only 116,000 over the past three months (most low-wage, and part-time) and the stakes contained in the election that is just six months away, such a conclusion is hard to reach. Instead, I expect we will get the same bar gag we have been getting for the past year. Many of those who now concede that a June hike is off the table still believe July to be a possibility. I believe the Fed will go along with that hype until it can no longer get away with it…then it will start bluffing about September, or perhaps December.
     
    The Fed has to keep talking about rate hikes so it can pretend that its policies actually worked. But the truth is that the Fed policies have not only failed, they have made the problems they were trying to solve worse, and raising interest rates will prove it. So the Fed resorts to talking about rate hikes, to maintain the pretense that its policies worked, without actually raising them and proving the reverse. This can only continue as long as the markets let the Fed get away with it or until the numbers get so bad that the Fed has to admit that we have returned to recession. That is the point where the Fed’s real problems begin.

     

  • Venezuela Opposition Leader Hit On The Face With Metal Pipe As Police Watch

    Following the recent tragic stories of mass looting by the country’s starving population, which has resulted in at least one death, and even people resorting to killing animals for food, little can shock us anymore as we follow Venezuela’s total social disintegration. Which is why we took today’s news that the leader of Venezuela’s congressional opposition bloc was hit in the face with a pipe, and bloodied as he attempted to make his way into a government building, with hardly any surprise at all.

    As photographs circulating online show, government supporters attacked Congressman Julio Borges with a pipe.

     

    He spoke at a press conference after the attack with blood streaming down from his nose and mouth, and bloody stains on his button-down shirt.

    Borges had been attempting to enter the headquarters of the country’s electoral body in downtown Caracas with other opposition figures. The area was heavily militarized, with lines of police looking on.


    Borges accused police of pushing him toward gangs loyal to President Nicolas Maduro.

    “Government supporters beat us with total impunity with pipes, stones, and explosives that went off in the middle of a group of lawmakers,” Borges said. “Maduro, what we want is to vote.”

    The opposition is pushing for a recall referendum against Maduro this year. They accuse elections officials of dragging their feet to delay the process. Borges said the officials refused to meet Thursday. A Maduro official previously has said that there will be no referendum.

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Today’s News 9th June 2016

  • Mervyn King's Alarmist Warning: "All China's Assets In The US Might Be Annulled"

    What is it about former central bankers who first destroy the fiat system with their monetarist policies, only to go into retirement, and preach the virtues of the one compound they spend their entire professional careers trying to destroy: gold. To be sure, when it comes to polar reversals of opinion, nobody comes even remotely close to Alan Greenspan: the former Fed chairman who is not only instrumental in launching the “Great Moderation”, which unleashed the current unprecedented global debt wave which will lead to unprecedented disaster sooner or later, has in recent years become one of gold’s biggest advocates as demonstrated most recently in “Greenspan’s Stunning Admission: “Gold Is Currency; No Fiat Currency, Including the Dollar, Can Match It.”

    Now it’s the turn of his former colleague at the Bank of England, Mervyn King, who in an interview with the WGC’s Gold Investor monthly, pours cold water over Bernanke’s “explanation” that gold is merely a tradition, and says the following:

    “I am very struck by the fact that over many many years, central banks, governments and individuals have always, despite the protestations of economists, held some gold in their portfolio. Obviously, there is no high running return, but when unexpected things happen, particularly when governments rise and fall, then gold is a means of payment that everyone is always prepared to accept. And I think that’s why even central banks have always had a role in their portfolios for gold,” he adds.”

    The then innocently pointed out that when it comes to defense against hyperinflation, gold remains the, well, gold standard:

    “It’s still early days to conclude that around the world, governments have found the solution to maintaining price stability with a managed paper currency. We made real progress in the 1990s and early 2000s and a lot of countries went down that road and followed us. But hyper-inflation has clearly not disappeared – the second biggest hyper-inflation in history was in Zimbabwe in this century – so I can understand why holding gold would seem to be a sensible part of a national portfolio. Because there is clearly a need to take some precautions against an unknowable future.”

    But the most interesting observation from Mervyn King’s interview comes courtesy of an observation by The Money Trap’s Robert Pringle, who writes the following about “Mervyn King’s alarmist warning“:

    According to the World Gold Council, Mervyn King, former governor of the Bank of England, believes that in certain circumstances China’s assets in the US could be “annulled”. Mervyn King’s alarmist warning is  made in an interview, entitled “Present perilous, future imperfect” that appears in the June issue of Gold Investor,  a WGC publication.  After pointing out that “China and other countries do not want to be in a situation where all their iternational assets are in effect dependent on the US”, he is quoted as suggesting that all China’s US assets could be at risk:

     

    “Over the last decade or so, the claims by some emerging market countries on the US have grown. Who knows what the future holds, but China and other countries do not want to be in a situation where all their international assets are in effect dependent on the US. Of course the US would not want to renege on its debts, but if some awful conflagration occurred, then all China’s assets in the US might be annulled. So there are plenty of big concerns that make it extremely reasonable to have assets in your portfolio that are not dependent on the goodwill of other countries.”

     

    The choice of the word “annulled” suggests some kind of deliberate action.  Under what scenario could this be even contemplated?

     

    Does he have in mind some sort of armed conflict? That is suggested by his reference to an “awful conflagration”.   He appears to be suggesting that if China and the US went to war, the US could cancel the Treasuries China owns (only those China owns?) and not repay (nor service the interest) unilaterally.

     

    He does not say so, but of course this would cause all US Treasuries to collapse, and the US would not be able to issue new bonds.

     

    Temporary suspension?

     

    If he means that the US would suspend paying interest or capital on the bonds that it owes to China (and its allies) only while the war went on, then he cannot mean ‘annulled.’

     

    It is fair to point, as he does,  to concerns that make it  reasonable to have assets in a central bank’s portfolio that are not dependent on the goodwill of other countries.

    It is also quite legitimate to consider  extreme scenarios other than those mentioned by Mervyn King; e.g. that US fiscal deficits might grow out of control, ending in rapid inflation or even hyperinflation.

    But for Mervyn King to say that there are circumstances in which the US could annul its debts is astonishing. Mervyn King’s alarmist warning goes far beyond scenarios outlined in his recent book “The End of Alchemy”

    All we can add to this is that with Icahn, Druckenmiller, and Soros, and now Mervyn King too, all warning that major trouble is coming, we are confident that the algos and the 17-year-old hedge fund managers will be right in betting it all on central banks to keep pushing the S&P to new record highs and beyond even as the global economy grinds to a halt.

    Source

  • How Companies 'Collaborate' to Rip Off and Get Rid of Workers

    By EconMatters

     

     

     

    We occasionally cover some of the odd and weird phenomenons in the current corporate America. We are going to categorize them as Workplace NWO (NWO = New World Order). Here is the latest we’ve observed.

     

    The current prevalent corporate slogan is ‘team work’ and problem solving, decision-making through ‘collaborative effort’. On the surface, this represents a healthy evolution of workplace process, like the old saying goes ‘Two brains are better than one”.

     

    However, in our previous post we noted how PIP (Performance Improvement Plan) has become a popular tool used by the new generation of less experienced managers to get rid of high performance, more experienced, ‘black horse’ employees who do not fit into an otherwise mediocre ‘team’. In addition to PIP, there’s another way to still rip the benefit, so to speak, of such employee (after all, you can’t put every such employee on PIP) under the cloak of ‘collaboration’.

     

     

    Cool, You Got A Project That Nobody Else Can Deliver


    In this situation, the high performance ‘black horse’ employee is typically given a challenging project or task that nobody else in the ‘team’ is capable of delivering. The project usually requires recurring deliverable, that is, it is not something you do it one time and leave.

     

    At first glace, this seems to demonstrate manager’s confidence as well as confirmation in this employee’s skills and capabilities. So this more experienced and high performance ‘black horse’ employee gets a moral boost and works hard on the project. The project eventually gets completed with resulting compliments even from higher-ups. A job well done and this employee gets some deserving recognition, everything seems fair and square, right? Not so fast.

     

    Collaborate to Rip Off

     

    As mention before, this is a recurring project. Usually, the most difficult part is to establish a sustainable and repeatable process for product creation and delivery on schedule every and each time. In a more traditional workplace, the recurring portion of the project should also fall under the initial project leader and creator (in this case, the ‘black horse’ employee) to continue managing the ongoing process and deliverable. However, in the ‘modern’ corporate workplace dominated by Gen X and millennial, nothing is done with rules based on standard moral compass any more.

     

     

    What typically happens is that as soon as the project gets some ‘credibility’ and ‘buzz’ (mostly on the back of that ‘black horse’ employee), the manager goes ‘let’s use the collaborative approach’ and distributes project ownership part and parcel to other junior and mediocre ‘team members’. After all, following (an established process) is much easier than creating.

     


    Lead a Project without Ownership


    This means this ‘black horse’ employee is still the ‘project leader’ responsible and accountable for the project outcome, but does not have true project ownership any more. You might ask what is the purpose of the manager doing so? Well, for one thing, the ‘black horse’ employee is still the ‘project leader’, so he or she has to do a lot of work mopping up after other ‘team members’. If anything goes wrong, which most likely will, the blame is on the project leader. Secondly, since the initial project leader has established credibility, other team members who now become part project owner are able to ride on that coat tail and may get away with inferior product delivery. A third reason is that every team member gets a bite out of the sweet successful project pie instead of the out-of-favor ‘black horse’ employee getting all the glory.

     

     

     

    Ripoff Cycle Repeats

     

    The story usually does not end there. There will always be another difficult project, and again it will be assigned to the ‘black horse’ employee and then be taken away just like so. This high-performance and hard-to-terminate employee most likely will not get much benefit on the performance review since most of his or her achievement has now morphed into the ‘collaborative effort” of the team.


    Everybody Loves Collaboration!

     

    Of course, all other team members support and love how manager is looking out for their ‘personal development’. What’s not to like when somebody else does the heavy lifting and you get to share the credit and glory regardless how little contribution you have made? And since we are in a distorted democratic society where majority rules, this could go on forever with support and approval from seemingly everywhere. The only ‘victim’ is the ‘black horse’ employee who is constantly trying to rein in project quality control behind the scene.

     

    But At Whose Expense?


    What is very likely going to take place is that those other relatively mediocre ‘team members’ get noticed or even moved up in positions due to the ‘contribution’ and ‘collaborative’ work of a few high-visibility project, while the brain behind these projects will never move up or go anywhere. Eventually, this high performance, hard-to-terminate employee gets so frustrated and moves on to a new job at a different company.

     

    ‘More Bang for the Buck’

     

    Similar to PIP, this ripoff disguising as ‘collaboration’ is something that emerged in corporate America within the past 5-10 years, and also has become part of the standard operating procedure for the new generation of middle managers.

     

    Both achieve the same goal – getting rid of a worker disharmonious to the ‘team’ but otherwise hard to terminate based on performance alone. The difference is that PIP leaves a paper trail in HR records with some legal risk, whereas ‘collaborate to rip off’ is much more subtle and stealthy while getting more bang for the buck, figuratively speaking, plus zero risk of a law suit.

     

    Like a Pack of Wolves

     

    In my view, there’s is really nothing significantly unreasonable with PIP or the ‘Collaborative Approach”; however, the problem lies squarely with how they are implemented by the new breed of middle managers after the Boomer generation.

     

    The post-boomer new generation middle managers tend to have a heightened sense of self-entitlement and like to rely on standardization as a managerial skill. That is, their main goal in managing people is to have a ‘group-think-and-act’ team with similar degree of inexperience. So these managers will not tolerate anyone who does not fit the preferred team mode. They also tend to register low on the moral compass, and like to band together like a pack of wolves taking out ‘obstacles’ in the process of climbing the corporate ladder.

     

    Short Term Win (maybe), Long Term Total Loss

     

    I know some will argue that this is what Corporate America needs to complete in the global world against the emerging economies like China or S. Korea. I believe this is purely short-sighted and may see some short-term benefits, but in the longer term, Corporate America will lose out with these Workplace NWO.

     

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  • No Fly No Buy: Obama's Last Ditch Effort To Cripple The Second Amendment

    Submitted by Joshua Krause via TheDailySheeple.com,

    There’s one thing that all gun grabbing politicians have in common. They are all quite adamant that they don’t want to take your guns. They’ll tell you over and over again that all they want is a few reasonable regulations. Every once in a blue moon they’ll let their guard down in front of an reporter, and reveal their true long-term intentions, but by and large they’re always trying to put a reassuring face on their gun grabbing agenda.

    Obama for instance, has consistently claimed throughout his presidency that all he wants is a few “reasonable” restrictions, and that all he intends to do is keep guns out of the hands of “bad guys.” Whenever he talks about it however, you can read between the lines and find his ulterior motives.

    At a recent Town Hall meeting, Obama was put on the spot by gun store owner, who asked him why he wants to restrict gun use for law-abiding citizens. The video has since gone viral among liberals who think that the president gave a stellar response. In reality, he merely showed us his true colors.

    “First of all, the notion that I or Hillary or Democrats or whoever you want to choose are hell-bent on taking away folks’ guns is just not true,” he claims “And I don’t care how many times the NRA says it.” Obama then goes on to make the case for restricting gun ownership for people who find themselves on the no fly list, and cites an example of someone who has been visiting ISIS websites but is still allowed to buy firearms.

     

    “So sir I just have to say respectfully, that there is a way for us to have common sense gun laws. There is a way for us to make sure that lawful responsible gun owners like yourself, are able to use them for sporting, hunting, protecting yourself. But the only way we’re going to do that is if we don’t have a situation in which anything that is proposed is viewed as some tyrannical destruction of the Second Amendment.”

    Unfortunately, his idea to restrict gun ownership for people on the no-fly list is exactly the kind of thing that could lead to the tyrannical destruction of the Second Amendment. In a perfect world it would be nice if we could keep guns away from terrorists, but restricting the gun rights of people who are on the no-fly list is anything but reasonable or “common sense.”

    That’s because literally anyone can find themselves on the no-fly list. You don’t have to commit a crime and you don’t need to visit any suspicious websites. They can take away your right to travel freely without any due process whatsoever. At best, all the government needs to do is hear that you might have some sympathies for a terrorist organization, and you’ll be barred from being on a plane for life.

    As Techdirt.com pointed out last year, more than a third of the people on the no-fly list have no known terrorist affiliations. If Obama’s plan were ever put in place, you could lose your right to bear arms over nothing more than a hunch or a rumor.

    Leaks to the Intercept revealed that the “process” by which people are put on either the no fly list or the terrorist watch list basically involves hunches, and revelations from just a few months ago show that DHS still uses flim flam pseudo science to put people on the list based on hunches that the government laughably calls “predictive judgment,” but which experts have said has no scientific basis whatsoever.

     

    If you want to understand how incredibly wrong this proposal is, you just need to replace “buy guns” with something else, like “the right to assemble” or “the right to use the internet.” It’s easy to say: “What could possibly be the argument for allowing a terrorist suspect to use the internet?” But then you remember that these aren’t actual suspects — they’re just people put on a list by law enforcement with no thorough process, let alone due process to defend themselves or to get off the list. And, of course, being a “suspect” doesn’t mean you’re guilty. Innocent until proven guilty used to actually mean something.

    And let’s not forget, that our government has a very broad definition of “terrorist,” and has in the past claimed that conservatives, libertarians, veterans, and Christians should be watched closely for their supposed terrorist potential (i.e., the groups that are most likely to own firearms).

    Sorry Obama, but you’re a gun grabber plain and simple. At best perhaps, you’re ignorant of what your proposal could do to our rights, and at worse you’re lying to the American people. You know exactly what a “no-buy list” would lead to. Furthermore, the fact that more guns were sold during your administration than any other in history does not prove that you’re not trying to take our guns, it’s only proof that you’ve failed to take them. You can sugarcoat your anti-Second Amendment vision, and claim that you just want to make us all a little safer, but we know what your ideas would do to our rights.

  • Americans Have Never Been Fatter – And It's Getting Worse

    Two recent reports from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) show that efforts to encourage Americans to lose weight aren't working.

    In one study of more than 5,400 adults, the results show that 33% of US adults are overweight, and 38% of US adults are obese. Breaking the data down a bit further, the report writes that "the age-adjusted prevalence of obesity in 2013-2014 was 35% among men, and 40.4% among women." Additionally, more than 5% of men and nearly 10% of women came in morbidly obese.

    For adults, people are considered overweight when their body mass index reaches 25, obese when it hits 30, and morbidly obese when it reaches 40.

    As an example, someone who is 5-foot-5 and weighs 149 pounds has a body mass index of 24, which is considered a healthy weight according to NBC News. If a pound is added, and that same person has a BMI of 25, the person is considered overweight. At 180 pounds that individual would have a BMI of 30 and would be considered obese.

    In a second study done on children and teens, the results showed that 17% are obese and 5.8% were extremely obese. Obesity in kids is measured a little bit differently, it's how heavy they are compared to other kids the same age and height – those weighing more than 95% of kids the same age are considered obese.

    People who are obese have higher rates of heart disease, diabetes, some cancers, arthritis, and Alzheimer's disease, however despite a lot of effort and millions of dollars spent, there is not much evidence the epidemic is diminishing.

    From NBC News

    It's not clear why obesity continues to worsen, despite many studies trying to put a finger on it.

     

    "Numerous foundations, industries, professional societies, and governmental agencies have provided hundreds of millions of dollars in funding to support basic science research in obesity, clinical trials and observational studies, development of new drugs and devices, and hospital and community programs to help stem the tide of the obesity epidemic," the journal's editors, Dr. Jody Zylke and Dr. Howard Bauchner, wrote in a commentary.

     

    "The obesity epidemic in the United States is now 3 decades old, and huge investments have been made in research, clinical care, and development of various programs to counteract obesity. However, few data suggest the epidemic is diminishing," they added.

     

    "Perhaps it is time for an entirely different approach, one that emphasizes collaboration with the food and restaurant industries that are in part responsible for putting food on dinner tables."

    Not only is it not diminishing, the Trust for America's Health projects that 44% of Americans will be obese by 2030, while the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention projects 42% of adults will be.

    From a financial perspective, a Gallup and Healthways study shows that 34% of obese adults were more likely to suffer financially than non-obese adults.

    * * *

    It appears as though Americans could use some time away from smart phones and video games, and redirect their efforts to a gym. Obesity is also a prime example of the fact that throwing money at a problem does not necessarily make the problem go away.

    Here are some other interesting facts from our #FatLivesMatter post.

    Adult obesity by state

    Here are the states with statistically significant increases in obesity between 2008 and 2015

    And finally, the healthcare costs attributable to obesity…

  • The Federal Reserve's Strange Behavior Makes Perfect Sense

    Submitted by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    I have made this comment many times in the past, but I think it needs to be stated again here: If you think the Federal Reserve’s goal is to maintain or repair the U.S. economy, then you will never understand why they do the things they do or why the economy evolves the way that it does. The Fed’s job is not to protect the U.S. economy. The Fed’s job is to DESTROY the U.S. economy to make way for a truly global system.

    There seems to be a collective delusion within certain parts of the liberty movement that the “globalists” (the banking and political elites that promote total global centralization of finance and power) are a purely American or Western problem, and that they have some kind of loyalty to the success, or perceived success, of the U.S. “empire.” This is nonsensical when you look at the progression of the American fiscal system after the Fed was established over a century ago.

    In the past 100 years, the U.S. has suffered a gradual but immense devaluation in the dollar’s real buying power. We witnessed the first long-term fiscal depression in the nation’s history. We saw the removal of the gold standard. We saw the dismantling of the greatest industrial base in the history of the world. We have struggled through the implosion of the derivatives and credit bubble, which Fed officials have openly admitted responsibility for. And now, we are on the verge of the final implosion of a massive equities bubble and the collapse of the dollar itself.

    All of these developments require careful planning and staging, not recklessness or random chance. Free-market economies tend to heal and adapt over time. Only constant negative manipulation could cause the kind of steady decline plaguing the U.S. ever since the Federal Reserve was forced into being.

    The Fed has had multiple opportunities to strengthen the economic lifespan of America, but has ALWAYS chosen to take the exact opposite actions needed, guaranteeing an inevitable outcome of crisis. The goal of internationalists and international bankers is to acquire ever more centralized authority, and thus, ever more centralized power. The U.S. is an appendage to the great vampire squid, an expendable tool that can be sacrificed today to gain greater treasures tomorrow. Nothing more.

    But this reality just does not seem to sink into the skulls of certain people. They simply cannot fathom the idea that the Fed is a saboteur. Not a bumbling greed fueled monster, or even a mad bomber, but a careful and deliberate enemy agent with precise destruction in mind.

    Case in point; the recent institution of the Fed rate hike program. No one really gets it and no one is asking the right questions. Why, for example, did the Fed begin raising rates in December? No one asked them to take such measures. Certainly not day traders in the market casino; they were too busy enjoying the fiat inflation of biggest equity bubble in the encyclopedia of humanity. The politicians weren’t demanding any drawback of Fed stimulus, they were too busy enjoying the fraudulent recovery afforded by the recapitalization of too-big-to-fail banks. So, again, why bother promoting rate hikes that are essentially guaranteed to cause a market crisis?

    Some might argue that the Fed must raise rates slightly so that they have room to cut them again when their stimulus schemes eventually fail. This is certainly possible, however, such an action only reinforces the position that the Fed is deliberately undermining the U.S. system. To hike rates now only to then cut them immediately after would result in the end of faith in the central bank’s ability to administer our financial structure. A crash would occur regardless.

    I do not believe the Fed intends to cut rates again, at least not until it is already too late to stall a full spectrum breakdown in stock markets. Even though the majority of analysts, mainstream and independent, hold the position that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates for a second time (or ever again), I am not convinced that this is the plan. The question remains — why begin raising rates at all if the goal is not to bulldoze forward and squeeze the U.S. economy?

    As I wrote in my article “The Global Economic Reset Has Begun,” the Fed has a habit of doing exactly what it says it is going to do.  They may fool the public as far as the exact timing of policy changes, but they never back away from the policy changes themselves.  I cannot find a single instance in the history of the central bank in which they announced future measures and then didn’t eventually follow through within the year.  This is how I predicted the first rate hike in December of last year, and it is why I believe another rate hike is coming this summer.  Fed officials today have been adamant that at least two more rate hikes will be initiated in 2016. If they do not enact these hikes, it will be the first example that I will have witnessed or seen in research in which they “backed off” completely from a policy initiative.

    Some analysts argue that this makes no sense. The Fed has spent the better part of the past eight years trying to keep equities markets alive. Why would they now risk crashing the same markets with rate hikes that will cut off corporations and banks from cheap or free overnight loans? Why would they strangle the steady stream of stock buybacks that have been supporting the markets for the past few years? Why risk the fragile rice paper psychology of the markets?  Why would they kill the “golden goose”?

    As the recent jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows, our fiscal foundations are crumbling and eventually, the fundamentals of our economy will overwhelm central bank orchestrated optimism anyway. Keep in mind, the report of only 38,000 jobs added in May does not paint the full picture of the unemployment problem in America.

    The BLS and the mainstream media consistently gloss over the REAL job loss statistics including U-6 measurements which indicate that more than 664,000 working age Americans were removed from unemployment rolls and are no longer “counted” as jobless. This brings the grand total number of workers without jobs or that are underemployed to nearly 95 MILLION! The BLS ignores these people in their primary calculations for the national unemployment rate, which magically dropped again last month to 4.7 percent.

    While the “official” jobs numbers are bad enough to cause concerns among mainstream traders and economists, the real numbers are far worse.

    Nearly every base economic indicator globally, from raw materials demand, to manufacturing and exports, to corporate earnings, to retail sales and employment are printing negative this year.  Despite all of this, markets remains levitated (for now) because the insane assumption within the mostly inane world of stocks is that bad economic news ensures the fed will bow to market forces and support the equities bubble for another quarter.  When the entirety of investment markets embraces a singular assumption, when the markets has "no doubts", this is when bad things happen.

    I have to laugh when I hear the claim that the Fed “cannot raise rates” in light of the new data. The fed is not "trapped"; rather, it is the U.S. economy that is trapped with the Fed as the instigator.  Obviously, the Fed was well aware of the real unemployment problem as well as numerous other negative data when they hiked rates the first time in December. So, let’s just say it plainly — The Fed is NOT dependent on data when making its decisions. The Fed does whatever it wants to do whenever it feels like doing it, and it is very likely that Fed policy decisions are made months in advance, while publicly scheduled policy meetings are designed just for show.

    They may claim that they care about the latest dismal jobs report, or other detrimental fiscal developments, but they don’t. They have their own agenda and their own data points, many of which we will never be privy to.

    I would also mention the fact that the Fed has raised rates during recessionary economic conditions on several occasions, including during the onset of the Great Depression; a move which Ben Bernanke later publicly admitted was the ultimate cause of the prolonged depression event. You can read my analysis of this in my article “What Fresh Horror Awaits The Economy After Fed Rate Hike?”

    With May’s job report so negative even with all the BLS manipulation, it is presumed that the Fed will not hike rates again at their June meeting. I believe that the Fed is certainly capable of raising in June. The timing of the meeting, right before the vote in the UK on the Brexit referendum, is perhaps not a coincidence.

    While I understand the argument that the Fed would be “better off” taking its time and raising in July or September, I want readers to entertain another possible scenario for a moment. Imagine if the Fed raised rates in June to everyone’s shock and surprise. Market turmoil is almost a guarantee.  A hike in June BEFORE a Brexit event would also be easier to rationalize to the public than a hike after a Brexit event.

    Imagine then that, again, to everyone’s shock and surprise, the Brexit vote is successful and the UK leaves the European Union (a supposed black swan that the IMF has warned will cause a global equities crisis).

    At this point, who gets blamed for the resulting equities crash? The Fed? The citizens of the UK? Who? If the globalists wanted to trigger the next leg down in the global economy, I can’t think of better circumstances or a better smokescreen.

    I also acknowledge the possibility that only one of these events might be necessary to increase market turmoil. But from the perspective of an evil-minded internationalist, wouldn’t it be spectacular to have both? I could be wrong, but it is something to think about…

    If you want answers to questions on why the Fed takes the risks it does, or why internationalists engineer crisis events, I suggest you read my article “The Economic End Game Explained.” Suffice to say, the Fed serves the interests of globalists and Fabian socialists, not the interests of America as a nation, and the globalists know that chaos is the best method for influencing populations to accept a “new order.” I would also say that they are pulling the plug simply because this year is most opportune.

    I don’t pretend to fully understand every detail of the timelines of globalists and the motivations behind them, but I do know that the evidence shows they have such timelines, and according to recent actions the clock appears to be running out.

  • Goldman Crushes Democrat's Dreams: Shows Obamacare Has Cost "A Few Hundred Thousand Jobs"

    We suspect Lloyd Blankfein will be receiving a call from The White House (or Treasury) very soon as Goldman Sachs' economists did the unthinkable in the age of political correctness – while investigating the state of under-employment in America, the smartest people in the room found that ObamaCare has led to a rise in involuntary part-time employment, estimating that "a few hundred thousand workers" have been forced to cut hours and has "created disincentives for full-time employment."

    Goldman's Jan Hatzius explains that they find mixed evidence to support the theory that the employer mandate under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) has contributed to the elevated level of involuntary part-time work.

    Our estimates of the effect by industry do show signs of an effect, particularly among the sectors that had the greatest gaps in required health insurance coverage prior to implementation of the mandate, but the relationship is weak.

     

    It is possible that the level of involuntary part-time workers could be a few hundred thousand higher than it would be otherwise as a result of the mandate, which is a small share of the 6.4 million workers employed part-time involuntarily, but potentially a much larger share of the “underemployment gap”.

    Their research into the relative slack in the labor force notes that…

    The share of workers who would like to work full-time but are only able to find part-time work for economic reasons has declined much more slowly than the unemployment rate, raising the possibility that structural factors could be keeping the involuntary part-time rate elevated (Exhibit 1). If true, this would suggest that there is currently even less slack remaining in the labor market than we have assumed.

     

     

    One potential explanation of the structural rise in the ratio of share of part-time to full-time employment is the employer mandate in the Affordable Care Act (ACA).

     

    In principle, the ACA should increase part-time employment as a share of total employment, from both the demand and supply side.

     

    • On the demand side, some employers that do not offer health insurance coverage for full-time employees may seek to avoid penalties by relying on part-time labor instead.
    • On the supply side, the ACA potentially creates disincentives for full-time employment, as it increases the implicit tax on marginal low- and middle- income earnings by reducing subsidies as incomes rise. It also loosens the link between employment and health insurance coverage – coverage can now be purchased more easily away from one’s employer – which may allow some who previously worked full-time for the offered health benefits to now work part-time instead. However, these supply-side effects should not be contributing to the elevated level of involuntary part-time work.

    As Goldman concludes…

    Overall we believe that the evidence suggests that the ACA has at least modestly elevated involuntary part-time employment.

     

    While the effect is hard to quantify given the apparently loose relationship just noted, we would estimate that a few hundred thousand workers might be working part-time involuntarily as a result of the ACA. We reach this estimate by multiplying the difference between the actual and estimated involuntary part-time workers in the five sectors most affected by the ACA mandate by total employment in those sectors. We can reach a similar estimate by dividing the sectors into two groups weighted equally by total employment, and subtracting the difference between actual and estimated involuntary part-time employment in the less-affected group by the difference in the more affected group. These admittedly rough measures fall in the middle of the few academic studies on the topic, and suggest that while the effect of the ACA employer mandate is small compared to the total number of the 6.4 million workers employed part-time for economic reasons, it could constitute a more significant share of the estimated remaining “underemployment gap.”

    There goes Blankfein's invite to Hillary's inauguration.

  • Currency Wars Re-Escalate As Bank Of Korea Eases To Record Low Rate With Surprises Rate Cut

     With the 655th rate-cut globally since Lehman, the Bank of Korea stunned the market tonight and cut rates 25bps to 1.25% (a record low). Only 1 of 18 economists expected a rate cut as it appears record highs in US equities signal nothing about the underlying turmoil in the world’s economy. After 6 straight days stronger (against the USD), the Won is sliding back above 1160 as it seems the currency wars are reigniting in AsiaPac…

     

     

    The 25bps cut, the first reduction since June 2015, shocked the market as only one BOK board member said at the May decision (according to the minutes) that there was a need to cut rates in near term.. which makes us wonder just what changed so quickly.

    As Bloomberg reports, South Korea’s central bank unexpectedly cut the benchmark interest rate to a new record low as concerns rose that the government’s push to restructure indebted companies is putting pressure on the economy.

    The decision to cut the seven-day repurchase rate to 1.25 percent was projected by only one of 18 economists in a Bloomberg survey. While Goldman Sachs Group Inc. was the sole forecaster predicting a cut at this meeting, Citigroup Inc., HSBC Holdings Plc, and Nomura Holdings Inc. were among those seeing a reduction in the next couple of months.

     

    South Korea’s sovereign yield dropped to a record low this month after minutes of the May meeting showed a board member called for lower rates while the government and central bank announced plans to create a fund to facilitate corporate restructuring, boosting rate-cut bets as part of policy coordination. The board’s May minutes showed several members were worried about downside risks from the corporate overhaul such as unemployment and declining investment.

     

    The market’s focus is on how many times the BOK will cut rates this year, Park Jong Youn, a fixed-income analyst for NH Investment & Securities Co., wrote in a report before the decision. Risks to the economy include unemployment from corporate restructuring, less fiscal spending due to front-loading in the first half of the year, and the anti-corruption law taking effect, according to Park, who expects two cuts in 2016.

     

    The government and central bank said on Wednesday that they’ll create an 11 trillion won ($9.5 billion) fund to recapitalize policy banks and prepare for the potential financial market impact from corporate restructuring. Korean shipbuilders announced plans to sell assets and cut jobs to pare debt.

     

    South Korea’s exports fell for a 17th consecutive month in May, although the pace of decline eased. Indicators of corporate activities such as investment ratios fell to post-financial crisis lows amid shipbuilders’ downsizing, while consumption held up.

     

    The economy grew more than initially estimated in the first quarter, expanding by 0.5 percent from the previous three months. Household debt rose to a record high of 1,223.7 trillion won in the first quarter, central bank data show.

     

    The three-year sovereign yield closed at an unprecedented 1.39 percent on Wednesday. The won gained 3 percent this month through Wednesday, erasing losses earlier this quarter, as expectations waned for a June rate increase by the Federal Reserve.

     

    With inflation set to trail BOK’s 2 percent target for six straight months, Governor Lee will hold a press briefing in July to explain monetary policy measures to achieve the target. This accountability measure was one reason Goldman Sachs had predicted a cut at this meeting.

    Now, who is next? Vietnam? Or does China come over the top with a big one?

  • What The IRS Just Revealed Should Start A Wave Of Outrage

    Submitted by Allen West via AllenBWest.com,

    Just imagine if this had been a Republican presidential administration these past seven years. The media would have been all over it like white on rice. However, for some very apparent reason, the liberal progressive media has dismissed or ignored scandals, faults, issues of deception, lies, abandonment of Americans to die, and tyrannical unconstitutional actions. Now the IRS has finally revealed its nefarious actions to us all – and it’s far worse than we thought.

    As reported by the Washington Times,

    “More than three years after it admitted to targeting tea party groups for intrusive scrutiny, the IRS has finally released a near-complete list of the organizations it snagged in a political dragnet.

     

    The tax agency filed the list last month as part of a court case after a series of federal judges, fed up with what they said was the agency’s stonewalling, ordered it to get a move on. The case is a class-action lawsuit, so the list of names is critical to knowing the scope of those who would have a claim against the IRS. But even as it answers some questions, the list raises others, including exactly when the targeting stopped, and how broadly the tax agency drew its net when it went after nonprofits for unusual scrutiny.

     

    The government released names of 426 organizations. Another 40 were not released as part of the list because they had already opted out of being part of the class-action suit. That total is much higher than the 298 groups the IRS‘ inspector general identified back in May 2013, when investigators first revealed the agency had been subjecting applications to long — potentially illegal — delays, and forcing them to answer intrusive questions about their activities.

     

    Tea party and conservative groups said they was the target of unusually heavy investigations and longer delays, Edward D. Greim, the lawyer who’s pursuing the case on behalf of NorCal Tea Party Patriots and other members of the class, said the list also could have ballooned toward the end of the targeting as the IRS, once it knew it was being investigated, snagged more liberal groups in its operations to try to soften perceptions of political bias.

     

    Sixty of the groups on the list released last month have the word “tea” in their name, 33 have “patriot,” eight refer to the Constitution, and 13 have “912” in their name — which is the moniker of a movement started by conservatives.

     

    Another 26 group names refer to “liberty,” though that list does include some groups that are not discernibly conservative in orientation. Among the groups that appear to trend liberal are three with the word “occupy” in their name. And then there are some surprising names, including three state or local chapters of the League of Women Voters — a group with a long history of nonprofit work.”

    There should be a wave of incredible outrage all across the nation knowing this has occurred. Lois Lerner should not be sitting back enjoying a nice six-figure tax payer-funded pension. Now, imagine if this were a Republican administration and the preponderance of these groups were liberal progressive? There’s no doubt t the manner of stories would be incessant and rampant — much like Abu Ghraib. It must be accepted that the liberal progressive left will leverage the power of the federal government against the common American citizen.

    After the 2010 midterm election cycle President Obama and the left knew there was no way they could allow for a constitutional conservative grassroots movement to go forward. So they came up with the treacherous scheme of using the tax collection agency to undermine the effort.

    In other words, the president of the United States turned the government on his own people — well, I suppose we’re not his own people. We still have to hear about the breaking and entering of Watergate, but mum’s the word on something as horrific as this. This was a widespread and calculated strategy, and if anyone wants to believe the president of the United States of America wasn’t cognizant of this activity, well, they’re delusional.

    And if President Obama wasn’t aware of this, then someone needs to explain to us who is in charge of the federal government — namely, this episode. Yes, I would concur that much lies at the feet of the modern-day Rasputin, Valerie Jarrett. But, Obama can’t come up with some “plausible deniability” excuse. I suppose he also had no idea Ben Rhodes was lying about the Iranian nuclear deal or creating a false narrative about the Benghazi incident. And yes, I will continue to address Benghazi since four Americans no longer walk this earth — while those who abandoned them still do.

    We may not know the full extent of the tyranny of the Obama administration until years afterwards. However, we should be careful about turning this country over to another tyrant.

    I have to admit, I just don’t hear much discussion, reference, and quotes by the remaining three presidential candidates regarding the Constitution and individual rights. I’m not talking about populist messaging. I want to know how we shall restore this Constitutional Republic to its standing and regard for individuals and their right to petition the government for redress of grievances.

    This is a very serious issue and it needs to be addressed — this should be a critical item to bring to the awareness of the American people. We truly do not need to be talking about someone’s individual court case. The fact that the Internal Revenue Service has released a list of groups that they targeted should not go unnoticed. This is a critical message point. And the liberal progressive left must be forced to admit if they do or do not consent to this type of abhorrent behavior.

    It can no longer be dismissed as having never happened. What America do we live in that an agency can produce a target list? And it would be interesting to see the exact dates for each group when they were first targeted — I bet that would be rather revealing.

    Here we thought we lived in a free country. Sadly it seems the last seven years have been anything but.

  • How The IRS Used Civil Asset Forfeiture To Ruin The Lives Of Two Connecticut Bakers

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    At the beginning of this year, Attorney General Eric Holder attempted to close an exploitable loophole in asset forfeiture laws. State and local law enforcement agencies often sought federal “adoption” of seizures in order to route around statutes that dumped assets into general funds or otherwise limited them from directly profiting from these seizures. By partnering with federal agencies, local law enforcement often saw bigger payouts than with strictly local forfeitures.

     

    The loophole closure still had its own loopholes (seizures for “public safety,” various criminal acts), but it did make a small attempt to straighten out some really perverted incentives. But deep down inside, it appears the DOJ isn’t really behind true forfeiture reform. In fact, it seems to be urging local law enforcement to fight these efforts by pointing out just how much money these agencies will “lose” if they can’t buddy up with Uncle Sam.

     

    – From the post: How the Department of Justice is Actively Trying to Prevent Civil Asset Forfeiture Reform

    It’s been a while since I’ve reported on the lawless and barbaric practice of civil asset forfeiture. However, just because it hasn’t been a focus doesn’t mean it isn’t happening. Indeed, it appears the same federal agencies that couldn’t find a bank executive they didn’t want to coddle, take particular pleasure in harassing and abusing average Americans generally, and small businesspeople in particular.

    The following case highlighted by the Huffington Post is an extremely sad and sobering expose. Below are some excerpts, but you can read the whole thing here: IRS Returns Bakery’s Money After 3 Years. Now It Wants To Put The Owners In Prison.

    In May 2013, David Vocatura watched $68,000 disappear.

     

    He was at his family’s bakery in Norwich, Connecticut, when a squad of armed IRS agents filed into the store. The agents wanted to know if Vocatura and his brother Larry were trafficking drugs or running a prostitution ring. The brothers had no idea what they were talking about.

     

    The IRS refused to believe Vocatura’s Bakery was operating on the up and up. Agents said the business raised red flags because of a series of cash deposits in sums under $10,000, the amount at which banks are required to report transactions to the federal government. They said this behavior was consistent with a crime known as structuring, which the IRS defines as making calculated financial transactions in order to skirt reporting requirements. The agents had no evidence of other wrongdoing, but thanks to a controversial law enforcement tool known as civil asset forfeiture, they didn’t need any to seize every penny in the Vocaturas’ bank account: $68,382.22.

     

    Under the practice of civil forfeiture, authorities can move to permanently take property they suspect of being linked to criminal activity, without obtaining a conviction — and, in cases like the Vocaturas’, without even charging the owner with a crime.

    USA! USA!

    For the past three years, the brothers have been fighting to get their money back, maintaining they’d done nothing wrong. The IRS has responded by subjecting David, 53, and his brother Larry, 69, to a series of increasingly aggressive legal maneuvers — including threats of significant prison time and additional fines — in an attempt to strong-arm them into permanently forfeiting their assets.

     

    On Tuesday, the Institute for Justice, a libertarian public interest law firm, filed a lawsuit in U.S. District Court for the District of Connecticut on behalf of Vocatura’s Bakery, demanding that the IRS promptly return their money. The suit argued that the Vocaturas were just the latest example of the government hastily seizing property, and then going to extreme and even unconstitutional lengths to justify it after the fact.

     

    Hours after the suit was filed, the IRS said it would finally give the Vocaturas their money back. But the prosecutor didn’t drop the case. Instead, he now plans to mount an expansive investigation into the bakery’s finances, looking for a reason to bring criminal charges against the brothers.

     

    At issue in the Vocaturas’ case are hundreds of deposits between March 2007 and April 2013 that ranged from $7,000 to $9,900 — a total of around $2.8 million. The Vocaturas say the deposited money was from the bakery’s sales, as they were doing mainly cash business at the time, and they have a less suspicious explanation for why the deposits were so close to the reporting limit. David Vocatura says a representative from their local bank told him that an employee had to fill out forms each time they brought in more than $10,000, so he decided to make life easier for the bank attendants by making smaller, more frequent deposits.

     

    If the IRS has proof that the Vocaturas were deliberately structuring payments or hiding illicit proceeds, it hasn’t provided it.

     

    Earlier this month, Peter S. Jongbloed, assistant U.S. attorney for the District of Connecticut, served the Vocaturas a grand jury subpoena calling for them to turn over every financial record from the six years between March 2007 and April 2013, so the agency could finally begin investigating the business’s tax and regulatory compliance. At the time, it was the latest reminder that the government was intent on taking the brothers’ assets, even if it had to change its approach three years after the fact.

     

    The Institute for Justice argues that the subpoena is an attempt to retroactively justify an improper seizure and punish the Vocaturas for not rolling over.

     

    “At this point, the government is in so deep, they’ve put these guys through three years of hell — and held onto their money for three years — and so they feel like they need to justify it,” said Robert Everett Johnson, an attorney for the Institute for Justice who is representing the Vocaturas. “So now they’re going to conduct this investigation into the bakery in some effort to try to find something that will make it look like they were doing the right thing all along.”

    Yes, my fellow Americans, this is your government.

    The government’s seizure of the Vocaturas’ account is part of a broader pattern of concerns about the use of civil asset forfeiture, a practice that brings in billions of dollars each year to federal, state and local law enforcement agencies.

     

    Critics say each step of the process is ripe for abuse. Authorities frequently base seizures on weak circumstantial evidence. In some of the most publicized civil asset forfeiture cases, the mere presence of cash has constituted enough probable cause to justify a seizure. In cases like the Vocaturas’, the act of depositing cash isn’t necessarily illegal on its own, but authorities are quick to treat anyone who does it like a criminal.

     

    Once the government seizes property, it’s difficult to get back. Unlike in criminal trials, where suspects are considered innocent until proven guilty, property owners must often prove their innocence in civil forfeiture cases.

     

    Once someone’s assets are forfeited, those proceeds go to the agency that made the seizure — and there is very little oversight of how that money can be used. Critics of civil asset forfeiture say this dynamic incentivizes law enforcement officials to bring in as much money as possible, creating a motive to “police for profit” rather than for public interest or safety.

     

    The IRS has used structuring allegations to seize hundreds of millions of dollars through civil asset forfeiture in recent years, some of which has been funneled directly into the agency’s coffers. report from the Institute for Justice put the total value of forfeitures — money the government kept in IRS structuring cases — at nearly $125 million between 2006 and 2013.

     

    Of the more than 2,500 seizures in the report, at least one-third involved no claims of criminal activity beyond the cash transactions themselves. Only 1 in 5 were ultimately prosecuted as a criminal structuring case. The numbers also show that the IRS failed to keep seized money in many cases, which could be a troubling sign of over-prosecution.

     

    The Vocaturas’ home state of Connecticut is a hotbed for structuring-based seizures, according to IRS data provided to the Institute for Justice through a public records request. Among states with a single U.S. attorney, Connecticut ranks third worst for these sorts of seizures. Between 2005 and 2013, federal prosecutors in the state approved 9.2 seizures for suspected structuring for every 10,000 businesses in the state — a rate that the Institute for Justice says is dramatically higher than other states.

     

    In February, 33 months after the bakery’s bank account was seized, Jongbloed broke his silence. He offered the Vocaturas an opportunity to end their ordeal, while also preventing the public backlash that had impeded recent structuring cases.

     

    Though the federal government had still not filed criminal charges against the brothers, Jongbloed wanted them to plead guilty to structuring, a felony, and admit that they’d “acted with the intent to evade the reporting requirement.” By doing so, the Vocaturas would be subject to a potential four-year prison sentence and would have to agree to forfeit both the initial $68,000 and an additional $160,000 in personal assets between them. 

     

    But by getting the Vocaturas to admit guilt, the IRS would also have been able to keep the brothers from speaking out about their case. The plea deal would have served as an admission that the government had some cause to take their money. Nobody could accuse the government of once again abusing civil forfeiture if the victims ultimately handed over the money as punishment for a crime they had copped to.

     

    Jongbloed noted that sanctions could be harsher if the case went to trial, and encouraged the Vocaturas to take the deal. The brothers, who still insist that they’ve done nothing wrong, rejected that offer.

     

    On May 10, Jongbloed responded by demanding more than six years of business records documenting all of the bakery’s dealings. He finally wants to figure out if the Vocaturas had actually broken the law when IRS agents raided their account.

     

    While the government is finally giving the Vocaturas their money back, the fact that they were able to hold it for so long without taking concrete action shows how much leeway they have in these cases.

     

    As long as the current system of civil asset forfeiture remains intact, new federal guidelines or policy are unlikely to be effective, said Steven L. Kessler, a New York attorney who has defended a number of clients in high-profile forfeiture cases. He believes clear legislative action is needed to keep the government from compromising people’s property rights in the hunt for money.

     

    “When the government says they’re going to do that on their own, they’re going to make the change, everyone is very happy and we move on to the next story,” said Kessler. “Rarely does anything change, because we’re dealing with a guideline — we’re dealing with something that is within the full discretion of the government.”

     

    There are some rumblings in Congress for a legal overhaul.

     

    Last week, Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner (R-Wis.) and a bipartisan group of co-sponsors introduced a bill to rein in civil asset forfeiture. Among the most significant measures, the Deterring Undue Enforcement by Protecting Rights of Citizens from Excessive Searches and Seizures Act of 2016, or the DUE PROCESS Act, would shift the burden of proof from the property owner to the government, and raise the standard needed to validate a forfeiture. If passed, the new law would require the government to provide “clear and convincing” evidence that property was substantially connected to criminal activity — still below the “beyond a reasonable doubt” standard for criminal convictions.

    This needs to pass.

    These legislative fixes would do little for Vocatura’s Bakery, however.

     

    While their legal saga began as a civil forfeiture case, the IRS has now decided to pursue criminal forfeiture against them. That isn’t addressed in the DUE PROCESS Act, which only deals with civil cases.

     

    Nor is it assumed that these bills will pass. Civil asset forfeiture reform has hit snags in Congress before, in part due to aggressive lobbying from law enforcement groups intent on preserving the practice.

    Yep. Recall: Land of the Unfree – Police and Prosecutors Fight Aggressively to Retain Barbaric Right of “Civil Asset Forfeiture”

    “The way you would expect the criminal justice system to work if you were reading your high school civics textbook is that you’d expect the government first to investigate people, then to obtain an indictment if they think something wrong has happened, and then to obtain a conviction and then finally to punish them,” he said.

     

    “But in this case that all has happened exactly backwards,” Johnson continued. “The government first punished the Vocaturas by taking their property, then they tried to get them to plead guilty to charges, and only when they refused to plead guilty did the government investigate.”

    This is not what freedom looks like.

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Today’s News 8th June 2016

  • Germany May Be A Bigger Threat To The European Union Than Brexit

    Submitted by John Mauldin via MauldinEconomics.com,

    Two polls were recently released that call the European Union in question.

    A poll in Italy reported that the Five Star Movement (a populist political party that wants to hold a referendum on whether Italy should remain in the European Union) was the most popular political party in the country ahead of local elections scheduled for next month. 

    On the same day, British researchers who surveyed nine EU countries reported that 45 percent of respondents believed that their country should hold a referendum on whether to remain in the EU.

    48% of Italians want to leave the EU 

    Reuters tried to explain that political scandals, which have undermined public confidence in current Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s Democratic Party, affected the poll numbers. But this is Italy we’re talking about, the same country that brought us Silvio Berlusconi. 

    The country is no stranger to political scandals. A few instances of corruption would not be enough to make an anti-establishment party like the Five Star Movement as popular as it has apparently become.

    The problem in Italy is economic. Unemployment in at least four of Italy’s southern provinces is over 18.8 percent, and in the other southern provinces, it is between 12 percent and 18.7 percent. And Italy hasn’t yet solved its non-performing loan problem.

    Two simultaneous phenomena are occurring here. The first is disillusionment with the Italian government. What was an economic problem has become a political problem, and since Italy is a democracy, its leaders can be voted out of office. The next general election is not until 2018, but if developments continue to unfold in Italy, the situation is only going to get worse for mainstream political parties.

    The second, deeper question is whether Italy wants to stay in the European Union. A Euroskeptic party is becoming the most popular political party in the eurozone’s third-largest economy. The rise of euroskepticism manifests itself in the polls, too—58 percent of Italians wanted a referendum on EU membership, and 48 percent would have voted to leave the EU. 

    In France, one of the twin pillars of the EU, 55 percent of survey respondents agreed a referendum should be called, and 41 percent said they would vote to leave.

    Brexit debate adds fuel to the fire

    Most debates over Brexit have revolved around potential consequences for Britain—whether Scotland might push for another independence referendum and join the EU on its own terms, or whether and how much (in terms of money and jobs) the UK would lose as a result of a decision to exit.

    What was less addressed, however, is how Britain’s stand against the EU and the public debate is dividing the rest of Europe. Prime Minister David Cameron negotiated a series of exceptions early this year. Even if the UK remains, it will have a new set of understandings with Brussels, and other countries may follow its lead.

    If Britain leaves and doesn’t undergo an apocalyptic depression, poll numbers might begin to trend upward—and they don’t have a long way to go to become the majority in some of the EU’s most influential states.

    Germany is a ticking bomb

    At the center of the European Union is Germany whose export-dependent economy is gradually falling apart. (Geopolitical Futures, in partnership with Mauldin Economics, has published a detailed study of the German economy. Click here to claim your free copy). 

    The German economy has thus far been able to avoid the crisis of the exporters that has affected every other major exporting country in the world – from the producers of manufactured goods like China and South Korea to commodity exporters like Russia and Saudi Arabia.

    The US Treasury Department recently announced that the US would monitor China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and Germany for potential currency manipulation. The report noted that Germany has built up a significant bilateral trade surplus with the US, in addition to holding the second-largest current account surplus in the world, at approximately 8.3 percent of GDP.

    It isn’t currency manipulation that has put Germany on this monitoring list. It is the fact that European and Chinese demand for German products has fallen. As a result, the US has become the destination for Germany’s exports in order to make up the difference. Export to the US, however, is a Band-Aid on a deeper wound.

    There are a number of factors besides exports that go into Germany’s current account surplus. Germany has become a significant creditor. Its net foreign assets rose from almost zero in the 1990s to around 40 percent of GDP by the end of 2010, according to economic scholar Jörg Bibow.

    Interest rates are low, and German banks are viewed as a safe haven in the European Union for stashing money. But since Germany is a creditor, many of the assets on German books are the unpaid debts of other eurozone countries. That means Germany is deeply exposed to a eurozone that still has not meaningfully recovered from the 2008 crisis.

    Account surplus is usually seen as a positive. But if Germany has a surplus of 8.3 percent of GDP, why not use that surplus to stimulate domestic demand? Germany must be either unwilling or unable to use the surplus to stimulate domestic demand. This is in part because Germany is a creditor and invests abroad and in its own banks and companies. 

    And this gets at the root of the entire problem. Germany exports almost half of its GDP. Germany imposed austerity on the EU after 2008, which has resulted in stratospherically high unemployment rates in southern Europe. 

    Demand has not returned to pre-financial crisis levels. Germany has been able to skirt the crisis while most of Europe is either still suffering or is in the doldrums. There are limits to US demand and its tolerance of German exports. 

    All of this offers different unique prisms through which to see how the European Union’s connective tissue is fraying as the bloc’s economic logic becomes increasingly illogical.

    Germany is the powerhouse of the EU and the fourth-largest economy in the world. But the truth is, the Germans are facing a profound crisis – and there's no way they can prevent it.

  • "It's A Seismic Shift" – Japan's Biggest Bank To Quit As JGB Primary Dealer

    Ever since the launch of Japan’s QE, and worsening in the aftermath of January’s shocking NIRP announcement, Japan’s bond market, which moments ago slid to new record lows yields across the curve, has had its share of near-death experiences: between repeated VaR shocks, to days in which not a single bond was traded, to trillions in bonds with negative yields, it has seemed that the Japanese Government Bond is on life support. That support may be ending.

    According to Nikkei, and confirmed by Bloomberg, Japan’s biggest bank, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, is preparing to quit its role as a primary dealer of Japanese government bonds as negative interest rates turn the instruments into larger risks, a fallout from massive monetary easing measures by the Bank of Japan. While the role of a Primary Dealer comes with solid perks such as meetings with the Finance Ministry over bond issuance and generally being privy to inside information and effectively free money under POMO, dealers also are required to bid on at least 4% of a planned JGB issuance, which as the Nikkei reports has become an increasingly heavy burden for BTMU.

    In other words, one of the key links that provides liquidity and lubricates the Japanese government bond market has just decided to exit the market due to, among other thinks, lack of liquidity entirely due to the policy failure of Abenomics in general, and Kuroda’s disastrous monetary policies in particular. One could, of course, ask just how does BTMU plan on also exiting the Japanese economy itself, if and when the country’s $8 trillion bond market implodes, but we doubt the bank will ever be able to answer that.

    The ministry is expected to let the bank resign.

    Japan has 22 primary dealers including megabanks and major brokerages. Several foreign brokerages had pulled out before as part of restructuring efforts at home or for other reasons, but BTMU will be the first Japanese institution to quit. 

    In a revolutionary shift, one created by the Bank of Japan itself, banks, once the biggest buyers of JGBs, see little appeal in sovereign debt today. The bonds have very low yields, and a rise in interest rates could leave banks with vast unrealized losses. Private-sector banks held just over 229 trillion yen ($2.13 trillion) in JGBs at the end of 2015, nearly 30% less than at the end of March 2013, before the BOJ launched massive quantitative and qualitative easing measures. 

    Negative rates introduced this year by the BOJ reinforced the trend. The highest bid yield on benchmark 10-year JGBs sank to a record low of negative 0.092% on Thursday. BTMU was the fifth-largest buyer of Japanese government bonds among the 22 primary dealers until spring 2015, but ranked 10th or lower between October 2015 and March 2016 as shareholders turned up their nose on government debt.

    Ironically, the same NIRP that was supposed to save Japan’s economy is now set to kill Japan’s bond market: Japan’s three megabanks halved their JGB holdings to a total of 54 trillion yen in the three years through March. They get little benefit from building up their positions on negative-yield bonds, which result in a loss when held to maturity.

    Meanwhile, Peter Pan Kuroda and his merry monetary lunatics, continue continue to crowd out the entire market, purchasing 100% of gross issuance, or a whopping 80 trillion yen in JGBs annually, and last year its holdings surpassed that of commercial banks in 2015 for the first time in about 40 years.

    For now, Japan’s increasingly fragile bond market appears stable thanks to the central bank’s massive intervention, however the irony is that the more the BOJ intervenes the more it will have to intervene to sustain the illusion that there even is a bond market. That will not last long, and now that the Primary Dealer exodus has begun, what little liquidity there was in JGBs will evaporate completely.

    For now, few expect immediate turmoil from BTMU ceasing to be a primary dealer. But a drop in private-sector interest could undercut the market in the medium to long term. Actually replace “could” with “will.”

    Analysts, while slow to pick up on the news, are waking up to a changed world for the world’s second largest government bond market. According to Chotaro Morita, chief rates strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities, news that Japan’s largest banks may return its primary-dealer license signals a “seismic change” in Japan’s govt bond market, initially triggered by BOJ’s QQE.

    Trying to downplay the impact of this shocking move, Morita said that the short-term impact on JGB market may be limited given BOJ’s purchases, however he adds that “if other large banks follow this move, it’s hard to say there will be no impact.”

    According to the Nikkei that’s precisely what is about to happen: Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group and Mizuho Financial Group also may consider quitting like BTMU.

    As a reminder, according to the BIS, Japan had a little over $8 trillion in government debt as of 2015.

  • Ali Is Dead, Fear Is Alive & Free Speech Is Being Dealt A Knock-Out Punch

    Submitted by John Whitehead via Rutherford.org,

    “What are the defenders of free speech to do? The sad fact is that this fundamental freedom is on its heels across America. Politicians of both parties want to use the power of government to silence their foes. Some in the university community seek to drive it from their campuses. And an entire generation of Americans is being taught that free speech should be curtailed as soon as it makes someone else feel uncomfortable. On the current trajectory, our nation’s dynamic marketplace of ideas will soon be replaced by either disengaged intellectual silos or even a stagnant ideological conformity. Few things would be so disastrous for our nation and the well-being of our citizenry.”—William Ruger, “Free Speech Is Central to Our Dignity as Humans

    As a nation, we have a tendency to sentimentalize cultural icons in death in a way that renders them non-threatening, antiseptic and easily digested by a society with an acute intolerance for anything controversial, politically incorrect or marred by imperfection.
     
    This revisionist history—a silent censorship of sorts—has proven to be a far more effective means of neutralizing radicals such as Martin Luther King Jr. than anything the NSA, CIA or FBI could dream up.
     
    In life, King called for Americans to rise up against a government that was not only treating blacks unfairly but was also killing innocent civilians, impoverishing millions, and prioritizing the profits of war over human rights and dignity. This was a man who went to jail over racial segregation laws, encouraged young children to face down police dogs and water hoses, and who urged people to turn their anger loose on the government through civil disobedience. King actually insisted that people have a moral responsibility to disobey unjust laws.
     
    In death, however, King has been reduced to a face on a national monument and a national holiday, neither of which even hint at the true nature of the man: fiery, passionate, single-minded in his pursuit of justice, unwilling to remain silent in the face of wrongdoing, and unafraid of offending those who might disagree with him.
     
    A contemporary of King’s, heavy-weight championship boxer Muhammad Ali followed a different path as a social activist and “breaker of boundaries.” Like King, Ali didn’t pull any punches when it came to saying what he believed and acting on it. Yet already, in the wake of Ali’s passing, we’re being treated to a sentimentalized version of the heavy-weight boxer.
     
    In life, Ali was fast-talking, fast-moving and as politically incorrect as they come. He became an early convert to the Nation of Islam, a black separatist religious movement whose membership at one time included Malcolm X and Louis Farrakhan. He denounced his “slave name” (Cassius Marcellus Clay) and refused to be the “white man’s Negro.”
     
    He was stripped of his boxing title, arrested and threatened with five years in prison and a fine of $10,000 after refusing to be drafted into the Army as a conscientious objector to the Vietnam War. “My conscience won’t let me go shoot my brother, or some darker people, or some poor hungry people in the mud for big powerful America,” declared Ali. “And shoot them for what? They never called me nigger, they never lynched me, they didn’t put no dogs on me, they didn’t rob me of my nationality, rape and kill my mother and father. … Shoot them for what? How can I shoot them poor people? Just take me to jail.”
     
    As First Amendment scholar David L. Hudson Jr. notes, “Ali’s remarkable career and life placed him at the vortex of these First Amendment freedoms… Ali freely exercised his religious faith. He regularly spoke provocatively on a variety of topics. The press was abuzz with coverage and criticism. Thousands assembled in support of him, and the champion himself took part in rallies, parades and marches. Some petitioned the government to redress the injustice of his conviction for refusing military service, which resulted in his being exiled from the boxing ring for his beliefs.”
     
    It took a legal battle all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court for Ali’s religious objections to serving in the Army to be given credence and his First Amendment arguments to prevail. The case was Clay v. United States.
     
    That was in 1971.
     
    Forty-five years later, Ali is dead, fear is alive, and free speech is being dealt one knock-out punch after another.

     
    Indeed, talk-show celebrity Piers Morgan has been soundly trounced and roundly censured for daring to suggest that Ali—a champion of the First Amendment who liberally peppered his speech with words (nigger and Uncle Tom) and opinions (“the white man is the Devil“ and “I’m sure no intelligent white person watching this show … want black boys and black girls marrying their white sons and daughters“) that would horrify most of his politically correct fans—made more “inflammatory/racist” comments than Donald Trump.
     
    Speaking of Trump, in Fresno, California, a third-grader was ordered to remove his pro-Trump “Make America Great Again” hat because school officials feared for his safety. The 9-year-old boy refused, citing the First Amendment.
     
    That was the same argument—a concern for safety—officials used in 2010 when they ordered several high school students to remove their t-shirts emblazoned with the American flag. The concern: wearing the flag on Cinco de Mayo, a Mexican day of celebration, might offend Hispanic students attending the school. The U.S. Supreme Court agreed with the school’s logic. Coincidentally, that same week, the high court also ruled against Confederate flag license plates on the grounds that they constituted government speech and might be offensive to African-Americans.
     
    For those of us who came of age in the 1960s, college campuses were once the bastion of free speech, awash with student protests, sit-ins, marches, pamphleteering, and other expressive acts showing our displeasure with war, the Establishment and the status quo.
     
    Today, on college campuses across the nation, merely chalking the word “Trump” on the sidewalk is enough to have student groups crying foul and labeling it as hate speech in need of censorship. Under the misleading guise of tolerance, civility, love and political correctness, college campuses have become hotbeds of student-led censorship, trigger warningsmicroaggressions, and “red light” speech policies targeting anything that might cause someone to feel uncomfortable, unsafe or offended.
     
    As I point out in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, this doesn’t even begin to touch on the criminalization and surveillance of various forms of speech that the government deems to be hateful, anti-government, extremist, bullying, dangerous or inflammatory.
     
    One could say that we have allowed our fears—fear for our safety, fear of each other, fear of being labeled racist or hateful or prejudiced, etc.—to trump our freedom of speech and muzzle us far more effectively than any government edict could.
     
    Ultimately the war on free speech—and that’s exactly what it is: a war being waged by Americans against other Americans—is a war that is driven by fear.
     
    America is in the midst of an epidemic of historic proportions. The contagion being spread like wildfire is turning communities into battlegrounds and setting Americans one against the other. Normally mild-mannered individuals caught up in the throes of this disease have been transformed into belligerent zealots, while others inclined to pacifism have taken to stockpiling weapons and practicing defensive drills.

    This plague on our nation—one that has been carefully cultivated and spread by the powers-that-be—is a potent mix of fear coupled with unhealthy doses of paranoia and intolerance, tragic hallmarks of the post-9/11 America in which we live.
     
    Everywhere you turn, those on both the left- and right-wing are fomenting distrust and division. You can’t escape it. We’re being fed a constant diet of fear: fear of terrorists, fear of illegal immigrants, fear of people who are too religious, fear of people who are not religious enough, fear of the government, fear of those who fear the government. The list goes on and on.

    The strategy is simple yet brilliant: the best way to control a populace is through fear and discord. Confound them, distract them with mindless news chatter and entertainment, pit them against one another by turning minor disagreements into major skirmishes, and tie them up in knots over matters lacking in national significance. Most importantly, keep the people divided so that they see each other as the enemy and screaming at each other so that they drown out all other sounds. In this way, they will never reach consensus about anything or hear the corporate state as it closes in on them.
     
    This is how a freedom-loving people enslave themselves and allow tyrants to prevail. 

    This Machiavellian scheme has so ensnared the nation that few Americans even realize they are being manipulated into adopting an “us” against “them” mindset. Instead, fueled with fear and loathing for phantom opponents, they pour millions of dollars and resources into political elections, hoping for change that never comes. All the while, those in power—bought and paid for by lobbyists and corporations—move their costly agendas forward, and “we the suckers” get saddled with the tax bills.

    We have been down this road before.
     

    A classic example is the fear and paranoia that gripped the country during the 1950s. Many huddled inside their homes and fallout shelters, awaiting a nuclear war. It was also the time of the Red Scare. The enemy this time was Communist infiltration of American society.

    Joseph McCarthy, a young Republican senator, grasped the opportunity to capitalize on the popular paranoia for personal national attention. In a speech in February 1950, McCarthy alleged having a list of over 200 members of the Communist Party “working and shaping the policy of the U.S. State Department.” The speech was picked up by the Associated Press, without substantiating the facts, and within a few days the hysteria began.

    McCarthy specialized in sensational and unsubstantiated accusations about Communist infiltration of the American government, particularly the State Department. He also targeted well-known Hollywood actors and directors, trade unionists and teachers. Many others were brought before the inquisitional House Committee on Un-American Activities for questioning. Regarded as bad risks, the accused struggled to secure employment. The witch hunt ruined careers, resulting in suicides, and tightened immigration to exclude alleged subversives.

    “McCarthyism” eventually smeared all the accused with the same broad brush, whether the evidence was good, bad or nonexistent. McCarthy, like many do today, appealed to the low instincts of envy, paranoia and dislike for the intellectual establishment.

    “The real scoundrel in all this,” writes historian David Halberstam, “was the behavior of the members of the Washington press corps, who, more often than not, knew better. They were delighted to be a part of his traveling road show, chronicling each charge and then moving on to the next town, instead of bothering to stay behind and follow up. They had little interest in reporting how careless McCarthy was or how little it all meant to him.”

    However, on March 9, 1954, Edward R. Murrow, the most-respected newsman on television at the time, broke the ice. He attacked McCarthy on his weekly show, See It Now. Murrow interspersed his own comments and clarifications into a damaging series of film clips from McCarthy’s speeches. Murrow ended the broadcast with one of the greatest news commentaries of all time, also a warning.

    We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven by fear into an age of unreason, if we dig deep in our history and our doctrine; and remember that we are not descended from fearful men. Not from men who feared to write, to speak, to associate, and to defend causes that were for the moment unpopular.

    This is no time for men who oppose Senator McCarthy’s methods to keep silent, or for those who approve. We can deny our heritage and our history, but we cannot escape responsibility for the result. There is no way for a citizen of a republic to abdicate his responsibilities. As a nation we have come into our full inheritance at a tender age. We proclaim ourselves, as indeed we are, the defenders of freedom, wherever it continues to exist in the world, but we cannot defend freedom abroad by deserting it at home. The actions of the junior Senator from Wisconsin have caused alarm and dismay amongst our allies abroad, and given considerable comfort to our enemies. And whose fault is that? Not really his. He didn’t create this situation of fear; he merely exploited it—and rather successfully. Cassius was right. ”The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves.”

    Whether you’re talking about free speech, surveillance, police misconduct or some other symptom of a government that has grown drunk on its own power, the answer is always the same: “we the people.”
     
    We need to reject fear as our guiding principle, and restore freedom to its rightful place at the center of our republic.
     
    As William Ruger writes in a powerful editorial for Time:

    We must vigorously re-make the case for free speech. We must recur to its great defenders from ages past and reintroduce their ideas to our fellow Americans. The wisdom of John Milton, John Locke and John Stuart Mill—not to mention that of Americans like George Mason and Justice Louis Brandeis—is as true today as it was in their times. We just have to remember it… we must transmit an understanding of the value of free speech to today’s Americans in order to ensure that it is protected for future generations. And perhaps even more importantly, we need to demonstrate a vigorous commitment to free speech. America’s success depends on whether we continue to embrace this fundamental freedom.

     

  • ISIS Taxes Sockless Women & Beardless Men In Desperate Attempt To Raise Cash

    As we have detailed in the past, the dramatic reduction in cash flow from oil sales has taken a tremendous toll on ISIS. A shortage of oil revenues has led to ISIS becoming so desperate for cash that it has even killed its own fighters in order to sell their organs. Now, it appears that another method is being tried to raise funds, this time by taking a page out of the standard government playbook: when you run out of cash, simply find ways to raise taxes on everyone.

    RT is reporting that ISIS has now enacted new taxes on those that live in territories under the group's control (which has dropped from 9 million to 6 million people over the past year), and each tax is more bizarre than the next.

    For leaving a door open, $100. If one were to fail a random Sharia test, $20 per wrong answer. For women, $30 for not wearing socks, and $25 if a cloak is too tight – for men, a quick trimming of the beard will get you hit with a $50 tax. And if someone is a non-sunni muslim or used to work for the government, then there is a special "repentance" certificate that needs to be paid for, and that will cost anywhere from $200 to $2,500.

    "There are fewer people and business activities to tax, the same applies to properties and land to confiscate." Said Columb Strack, senior analyst at IHS. "This is a big indicator of the group's financial difficulties. Taxation makes up about 50 percent of the Islamic State's monthly revenue sources and encompasses almost every aspect of the population's life" added Ludovico Carlino, also of the IHS.

    Speaking of every aspect of the population's life, there are even taxes related to livestock. For example, if a bell is found around a sheep's neck, that's a $10 fine for the owner, and the animal will be confiscated.

    As ISIS is under pressure in both Iraq and Syria, it may lose even more territory. If and when that happens, who knows what kind of outlandish scheme the group will come up with at that point.

    * * *

    Bonus: Here is drone footage showing the Syrian army advancing on Raqqa, the de facto capital of the Islamic State.

  • Mapping The Cost Of "Sin" Across America

    As spring heads into summer across the United States, many Americans may be enjoying a frosty adult beverage. And associated with the purchase of that alcohol, Americans will pay a hefty tax. The taxes collected from so-called sin taxes serve as a major source of revenue for some states. Sin taxes can cover activities from tobacco and alcohol to casino and racing gambling.

    HowMuch.net decided to visually break down the amount of revenue that states generate from sin taxes on a total tax revenue basis, as well as examining the amount of revenue generated by the category of "sin taxes". States collected over $32 billion in sin taxes in 2014. As political pressure mounts to keep income and property taxes low, state legislatures have often turned to sin taxes to generate more revenue. Experts note that states have raised taxes on tobacco products 111 times between 2000 to 2015.

    Eleven states collected over $1 billion from sin taxes. These states are identified by the darkest color on the visualization above. Pennsylvania led the way with $2.7 billion in sin tax revenues.  The Keystone state generated over $1 billion from tobacco revenue alone, one of only three states to do so. This was followed by revenue from racino in excess of $770 million and casino revenue of $575 million.

    Pennsylvania is closely followed by New York with around $2.65 billion in sin tax revenue. Close behind in third was Texas with $2.51 billion in sin taxes. The other eight states in excess of $1 billion were Nevada, Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, New Jersey, Florida and California.

    At the bottom end of the scale, Wyoming had the lowest amount of "sin tax" revenue with only $26 million. North Dakota was in second place with only $41 million.

    Taxes on tobacco products is a major source of sin tax revenue. As stated previously, only three states generated in excess of $1 billion in revenue from tobacco. New York took in the largest amount of tobacco taxes with $1.446 billion, in a virtual dead heat with Texas who also took in $1.446 billion. Pennsylvania generated the third largest amount of tobacco revenue at $1.028 billion. On the lower side of the scale, Wyoming only collected $24.4 million in tobacco. South Carolina was the second lowest with only $25 million generated from taxes on tobacco.

    Another major category of sin taxes is alcohol. As shown by the visualization, Texas was the only state to generate over $1 billion in revenue from alcohol. The next closest state in a distant second was Florida with $452 million. New York was third far behind Florida with only $250 million in alcohol tax revenue. Wyoming saw the lowest amount of revenue with only $1.8 million from alcohol.

    Only certain states allow casinos, thus geographically limiting the amount of revenue generated in this category. Not surprisingly, Nevada led the country in casino taxes with $912 million. The home of Las Vegas, casino revenue is a major source of income for the state. Pennsylvania was in second with $575 million in casino tax revenue. West Virginia was lowest in the category and only saw limited casino revenue of $3.8 million.

    Another category with limited participants is revenue from Racinos. The combination of race tracks and casinos generated $937 million for New York, first in the category. This was followed by Pennsylvania with $770 million. Rhode Island followed in third with $318 million. Oklahoma was in last place with only $20 million in racino tax revenue.

    The final category of sin taxes is revenue from video-gaming/pari-mutuel activities, generating fairly low revenue overall. West Virginia led the country in this category with $204 million collected. This was followed by Louisiana with $182 million. Illinois was in third with $152 million.

    As states continue to grapple with ever-tightening budgets, it is nearly certain that state legislatures will continue to raise sin taxes. Sin taxes are an easy way for states to increase revenue without running into significant political opposition. However, the benefit of ever increasing sin taxes is questionable. Some academic studies have pointed to sin taxes as having limited revenue growth and high costs to enforce. The debate over sin taxes is certain to continue during the election year.

    Source: HowMuch.net

  • The US Is Dumping Hazardous Electronic Waste Into Asia

    US exports of goods and services may be decreasing, but one export that appears to be hanging in there is hazardous electronic waste.

    According to a recent investigation conducted by the Seattle-based e-waste watchdog group Basel Action Network (BAN), much of the hazardous electronic waste discarded in America is not being recycled properly – and by not recycled properly he means dumped in a junkyard in southeast Asia.

    Jim Puckett who leads BAN said that "most of the public still thinks that they're going to recycle e-waste right there in America. They have the right to know where their stuff goes."

    Last year the investigation inserted GPS tracking devices inside 200 discarded computers, printers and TV's. The devices were dropped off at donation centers, recyclers, and electronic take-back programs across the country. What the investigation found was that about a third of the items were illegally exported from the US, generally ending up in independent shops and junkyards in southeast Asia.

    Using a mapping app on an iPad, Puckett tracked several of the items, including one left with Dell Reconnect, to the outskirts of Hong Kong.

    From Sputnik

    Puckett's investigation led him to a site on the outskirts of the city of Hong Kong, where workers without protective gear, wearing aprons dusted with extremely poisonous toner ink, were dismantling, and in some cases simply smashing, large piles of old printers.
    The salvage locations were littered with the broken white fluorescent tubes used to illuminate LCD flat-screen monitors on the printers. When broken, these items release highly-toxic mercury vapor. Through his translator, Puckett learned that the workers were not made aware that they were dealing with toxic materials, or that their health was at risk.

     

    Another device mounted with a Puckett GPS locater was found in a nearby abandoned field, amid scattered pieces of LCD and CRT monitors, camcorders and keyboards. Hong Kong bans the import of hazardous e-waste from the US, and Puckett believes many of these operations are illegal.

    The Hong Kong Environmental Protection Department said "On the whole, Hong Kong has been effective in combating hazardous waste shipments", also adding that at least 21 cargo loads of e-waste have been sent back to the US in the past three years.

    Ultimately, BAN's tracking investigation revealed that 65 US recyclers illegally shipped e-waste to China, Thailand, Pakistan, Taiwan, Mexico, and Kenya. Of the 28 electronic GPS-monitored devices dropped off by Puckett with Dell Reconnect, six went abroad, to Hong Kong, Taiwan, China, and Thailand.

    In response, Beth Johnson, the head of Dell's producer responsibility program said the company is interested in finding out how the tracked electronics ended up overseas. "If there is something that did not follow the system, we would certainly want to know about it and certainly take corrective action."

    Well, now Dell knows that it's been dumping hazardous electronic waste into Asia – let's see if it updates the website to say: "plus you'll be helping to protect the environment and benefit your community at the same time – all while dumping all of the hazardous shit into Asia!"

  • The New "Hope"

    Submitted by Ben Hunt via Salient Partners' Epsilon Theory blog,

    A policy-controlled market, whether it’s today’s investment environment or the 1930s or the 1870s, places enormous pressure on investors … for yield and consistent return, to be sure, but even more so for a resurrection of the investment beliefs that held sway in “normal times”, for an escape from the prison of extraordinary monetary policy and its grip on market behavior. Pressure and time. That’s all it took for the Shawshank Redemption and that’s all it takes for our modern market redemption. Or it least that’s all it takes for the hope and the escape attempt. Let’s see if we’re as successful as Andy Dufresne.

    When suitably crystallized, an investment hope takes on a different form. It becomes an investment theme. Today the investment hope that has crystalized into an investment theme is the notion that soon, just around the corner now, perhaps as a result of the next mystery-shrouded meeting of the world’s central bankers, perhaps as a result of the U.S. election this November, we will enjoy a coordinated global infrastructure spending boom. Of course, this isn’t deficit spending or another trillion dollar layer of debt, but is “investment in our crumbling infrastructure.” This isn’t a mirror image of China’s massive over-build in empty cities or of Obama’s shovel-ready infrastructure projects from 2009-2010, but is “really a free lunch“, to quote Larry Summers, where there’s never a Bridge-to-Nowhere or an Airport-of-One. Or so the Narrative goes.

    A Narrative theme is a theme of hope, pure and simple. And because hope can and will emerge without any evidence or support from the real world, a Narrative theme can work from an investment perspective even if it’s a non-event in the real world or, stranger yet, an abject failure in the real world. In exactly the same way that you can invest alongside central bank efforts to prop up markets and drive asset prices higher without believing in your heart-of-hearts that anything these bankers say is even remotely true, so can you invest alongside a Narrative theme without believing a single word of the Narrative itself.

    And to be clear, my personal belief is that Larry Summers and the rest of the “public infrastructure projects are great investments!” crowd are sniffing glue. You’re pulling forward future economic activity, that’s all. Read the latest from Howard Marks if you don’t believe me. I’m not saying that government spending is bad — on the contrary, government spending is absolutely necessary to preserve life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, and there’s certainly a societal “return on investment” from government spending — but don’t tell me that there’s this huge productivity-enhancing, non-quotation-marked economic return on investment generated by the government building stuff that the private sector doesn’t want to build. Don’t tell me that what China is doing with their infrastructure is “mal-investment”, but that if we do it … well, that’s different, because, you know, our infrastructure is “crumbling” instead of “gleaming” the way it is in … umm … China. Yes, LaGuardia is a miserable airport. So stipulated. But there are infinitely greater productivity gains to be had from changing our insane TSA regulations and reducing security lines than by building a new Terminal B. If you want a massive Keynesian deficit spending program on top of our massive current debt … fine, make the argument. There’s an argument to be made. But don’t put a specious “investment” wrapper around it.

    epsilon-theory-space-1999

    But it’s exactly that specious wrapper — the Narrative — that makes all of this work as an investment theme. If a massive public works program were couched in its traditional Keynesian or neo-socialist form (you don’t see Bernie Sanders talking about the economic ROI of his infrastructure proposals), it wouldn’t have a chance with the Wall Street Journal crowd. But, hey, if a public works program is “a smart investment” … never mind that this is about as smart an investment as Moonbase Alpha (yes, I had the Space: 1999 lunchbox) or perhaps a gigantic hole in the ground … well, then, let’s muster up the usual suspects at CNBC and the Wall Street Journal op-ed staff to get behind this, and let’s convince ourselves that Donald Trump wouldn’t be a nut job president, even though every shred of evidence and plain common sense screams the contrary, because he’s, you know, a “builder.”

    It’s all based on hope for real economic growth and an escape from policy-controlled markets, a hope that springs in every investor’s heart given enough pressure and enough time. It’s a hope that, as Sir Francis Bacon said, makes for a good breakfast but a bad supper. We’re in the breakfast phase of this Narrative theme still, as Missionaries (to use the game theory term) like Larry Kudlow beat the drum louder and louder for a big infrastructure spend, and it’s a drumbeat that will continue to grow until there’s a reality check or a powerful Missionary creating Common Knowledge to knock it back. That will be the dinner portion of this Narrative theme, and it will be an unpleasant meal. But I don’t see dinner being served until well after the U.S. election, no matter who takes the White House or how the balance of power shifts in Congress, and it might be a year or two later before the thin gruel of dashed hopes is served up to markets.

    So even though I think this U.S. public infrastructure build has barely a whiff of merit from an economic policy perspective, even though I think its net effect once implemented will be to make the ultimate debt reset that much more horrific, I also think it’s a highly investable idea. Because that’s the way you play the Common Knowledge Game.

    Common Knowledge is information that everyone believes everyone has heard. It’s why executions were once held in public, not so a big crowd can see the guy getting hanged, but so the crowd can see the crowd watching the guy getting hanged. It’s why political debates are filmed in front of a live audience. It’s why sitcoms have laugh tracks. It’s how a relatively small but highly televised protest in Cairo’s Tahrir Square toppled Mubarak. It’s why the Chinese government still cracks down on media pictures of the Tiananmen Square protests, now more than 25 years old. Common Knowledge is the game theoretic concept behind the irresistible power of the crowd watching the crowd, and as a result Common Knowledge construction by governments, corporations, and yes, central bankers is one of the most potent instruments of social control on Earth.

    The Common Knowledge Game is the game of markets, and it’s been internalized by good traders for as long as markets have existed. What you think about the market doesn’t matter. What everyone thinks about the market (the consensus) doesn’t matter. What matters is what everyone thinks that everyone thinks about the market, and the way you get ahead of this game is to track the “Missionary statements” of politicians, pundits, and bankers made through the four media microphones where the Common Knowledge of markets is created: The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, Bloomberg, and CNBC. It’s what Keynes called The Newspaper Beauty Contest, and it drove the policy-controlled markets of the 1930s exactly as it drives markets today. Is it an easy game to play? Nope. But you don’t have to be a professional poker player to avoid being the sucker at your local game. You don’t have to be a wizard trader to be aware that the Common Knowledge Game is being played, and that it’s driving market outcomes.

    Red and Andy survived more than 20 years in Shawshank prison because they never lost hope. But they were smart about the concept of hope. They didn’t let hope consume them to take stupid chances. In Red’s words, they never let hope drive them insane. That’s the same balancing act we all need to adopt here in Central Bank prison. Hope is a good thing. Hope is a human thing. But hope is also a social construct that is used intentionally by others to shape our behaviors, in markets as in life. That’s the awareness we need to be hopeful survivors here in the Silver Age of the Central Banker, and that’s the awareness I’m trying to create with Epsilon Theory.

  • 7 Charts One Hedge Fund Is Watching

    Fasanara Capital’s Francesco Filia sends over the following list of things he is watching, as well as the following seven charts he believes will show the upcoming key inflection points.

    THINGS TO WATCH

    • Yields are reaching new lows: the average German government bond yield is now below zero for the first time in history. 10yr Bunds are testing April ’15 lows (at +7bps). Curve may flatten from here.
    • Negative yields putting pressure on the banking sector: historically, the European banking index tends to underperform when interest rates drop and the curve flattens. So far in the last month, banks are over-performing yields. Over-performance may fade from here.
    • Within Europe, Italian banks are getting particularly hit: they started to underperform at the beginning of May and the Italian Banks index has now hit new YTD lows.
    • We keep a close eye on the other risk factors:
      • USD/CNH is surprisingly grinding higher, despite weak NFP, dovish Yellen, weak broad US Dollar, EUR & JPY strengthening.
      • Oil and Base Metals decoupled in May: this relation is to be closely monitored, we look at Oil gyrations as short-term heavy volatility, within a long-term downward trend.

    CHARTBOOK:

    The GERMAN AVERAGE GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD now below zero for the first time in history
    ‘Umlaufrendite’ dived below zero for the first time last Friday after weak US NFP numbers. Now 10trn$ worth of govies globally trade negatively

     

    GERMAN 10yr and 30yr YIELDS keep falling, curve may flatten further from here
    10yr BUND yield already at all-time lows, 30yr BUXL is still ~30bps above historical lows

     

    Banks over-performed yields recently, gap may narrow from here
    RATIO of EU BANKS / EUROSTOXX vs. 10yr BUND YIELD. Historically, the relative performance of European banks over the Eurostoxx correlates well with European yield curves. Banks have over-performed recently. The gap is likely to narrow from here: relatively, yields may rise more than bank equities or fall less than bank equities.

    Italian banks underperformed the EU banking sector in May by most in 2016
    Italian Banks hit new YTD lows this week. Their underperformance vs the EU banking sector is now evident, whereas they had moved broadly in tandem during January/February sell-off. Negative news flows (Veneto Banca, recent local elections) might be the driver of the move. Trend to monitor.

     

    BTP vs. BUND & FTSEMIB vs. EUROSTOXX: Italian underperformance is visible also in the fixed income and broader equity market
    The yield spread between 10yr BTPs and 10yr Bunds kept widening since mid-March, while the FTSEMIB underperformed the Eurostoxx even more visibly (10% since January)

     

    USD/CNH grinding higher, despite broad US Dollar weakness
    CNH is nearing the psychological level of 6.60, and fixed at its weakest since2011, despite post-NFP broad US Dollar weakness and good China FX reserve depletion numbers just released.

     

    OIL and BASE METALS decoupled in May
    While the Oil price kept rising and moved to 50$, base metals fell off a cliff and descended below March lows. A trend to monitor closely for clues on who is right of the two.

  • World's "Safest" Market Suffers Worst Volatility Since 2009

    As Fed credibility collapses in a pile of failed communications, Bloomberg notes that the $1.5 trillion market for U.S. Treasury bills, known as an oasis of stability for investors worldwide, is experiencing the most volatility since the financial crisis.

    Since September's farcical Fed fold, T-Bill yields have seen a visibly notable increase in volatility – extra- and intra-day…

     

    As Bloomberg reports, the gyrations underscore how it’s a precarious time for investors in bills and other instruments in the money market, which the Fed uses to implement policy changes. Asset managers looking to park cash in the short-term securities have to navigate officials’ efforts to normalize interest rates while also adapting to post-crisis rules.

    Skepticism toward the Fed’s plans to boost its overnight target, following liftoff from near zero in December, is fueling the volatility. Futures assign a 2 percent chance of an increase at officials’ June 14-15 gathering, and the probability doesn’t exceed a coin toss until December.

     

    “The Fed has hiked once already, so we are in a tightening cycle, but there is enough uncertainty about what that will look like,” said William Marshall, an interest-rate strategist in New York at Credit Suisse Group AG, one of the Fed’s 23 primary dealers.

     

    “The other big uncertainty, where there is still a lot of debate, is what is going to be the end state for front-end demand once the money-fund reforms go into effect.”

    While this huge market is the so-called "safest" place to park cash in the world, based on the average daily range swings, T-Bills have not been this 'risky' since 2009…

     

    Regulatory changes are also driving the volatility…

    On Oct. 14, Securities and Exchange Commission rules take effect that may lead investors to shift into money-market funds focused on government debt, from prime funds, which typically buy commercial paper. The new regulations mandate that institutional prime funds report prices that fluctuate, rather than sticking to $1 per share. The measures also allow fund companies to use steps such as redemption fees to prevent runs in times of panic.

     

    Amid all the changes, which have already led many money-market companies to alter their offerings, institutional investors may pull about $400 billion from prime funds, JPMorgan Chase & Co. predicted in the first quarter.

     

    The combination of fluctuating Fed bets and purchases of bills related to regulatory changes will spur volatility, said Jerome Schneider, head of short-term portfolio management at Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., which oversees $1.5 trillion.

     

    “Until these stimuli become reconciled and resolved, we may continue to see relative repricing a normal event in this sector,” he said.

    So, as with everything else The Fed touches – stocks are at their lowest volatility in years (amid the highest valuations ever) and T-Bills are the riskiest in 7 years

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Today’s News 7th June 2016

  • Obama Slams Door In Putin's Face, Refuses To Discuss "Very Dangerous" Missile Defense System

    Authored by Eric Zuesse, via The Saker,

    Actions speak louder than mere words, and U.S. President Barack Obama has now acted, not only spoken. His action is to refuse to discuss with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russia’s biggest worry about recent changes in America’s nuclear strategy – a particularly stunning change that is terrifying Putin.

    On Sunday June 5th, Reuters headlined “Russia Says U.S. Refuses Talks on Missile Defence System”, and reported that, “The United States has refused Russian offers to discuss Washington’s missile defence programme, Russian Deputy Defence Minister Anatoly Antonov was quoted as saying on Sunday, calling the initiative ‘very dangerous’.”

    Russia’s concern is that, if the “Ballistic Missile Defense” or “Anti Ballistic Missile” system, that the United States is now just starting to install on and near Russia’s borders, works, then the United States will be able to launch a surprise nuclear attack against Russia, and this system, which has been in development for decades and is technically called the “Aegis Ashore Missile Defense System”, will annihilate the missiles that Russia launches in retaliation, which will then leave the Russian population with no retaliation at all, except for the nuclear contamination of the entire northern hemisphere, and global nuclear winter, the blowback from America’s onslaught against Russia, which blowback some strategists in the West say would be manageable probems for the U.S. and might be worth the cost of eliminating Russia.

    That theory, of a winnable nuclear war (which in the U.S. seems to be replacing the prior theory, called “M.A.D.” for Mutually Assured Destruction) was first prominently put forth in 2006 in the prestigious U.S. journal Foreign Affairs, headlining “The Rise of Nuclear Primacy” and which advocated for a much bolder U.S. strategic policy against Russia, based upon what it argued was America’s technological superiority against Russia’s weaponry and a possibly limited time-window in which to take advantage of it before Russia catches up and the opportunity to do so is gone.

    Paul Craig Roberts was the first reporter in the West to write in a supportive way about Russia’s concerns that Barack Obama might be a follower of that theory. One of Roberts’s early articles on this was issued on 17 June 2014 and headlined “Washington Is Beating The War Drums”, where he observed that “US war doctrine has been changed. US nuclear weapons are no longer restricted to a retaliatory force, but have been elevated to the role of preemptive nuclear attack.”

    Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has tried many times to raise this issue with President Obama, the most recent such instance being via a public statement of his concern, made on May 27th. Apparently, the public statement by Antonov on June 5th is following up on that latest Putin effort, by Antonov’s announcement there that Obama now explicitly refuses to discuss Putin’s concerns about the matter.

    The fact that these efforts on the part of the Russian government are via public media instead of via private conversations (such as had been the means used during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, when the shoe was on the other foot and the U.S. President was concerned about the Soviet President’s installation of nuclear missiles 90 miles from the U.S. border) suggests that Mr. Obama, unlike U.S. President John Fitzgerald Kennedy in 1962, refuses to communicate with Russia, now that the U.S. is potentially in the position of the aggressor.

    Russia is making its preparations, just in case it will (because of the Aegis Ashore system) need to be the first to attack. However, some knowledgeable people on the subject say that Russia will never strike first. Perhaps U.S. President Obama is proceeding on the basis of a similar assumption, and this is the reason why he is refusing to discuss the matter with his Russian counterpart. However, if Mr. Obama wishes to avoid a nuclear confrontation, then refusing even to discuss the opponent’s concerns would not be the way to go about doing that. Obama is therefore sending signals to the contrary — that he is preparing a nuclear attack against Russia — simply by his refusal to discuss the matter. In this case, his action of refusal is, itself, an answer to Putin’s question, like slamming the door in Putin’s face would be. It’s a behavioral answer, instead of a merely verbal one.

    The geostrategist John Helmer discussed on May 30th the question of when the “Trigger Point” will likely be for Putin to decide whether there is no reasonable alternative but to launch — and for him then to launch — World War III.

    Investigative historian Eric Zuesse is the author, most recently, of  They’re Not Even Close: The Democratic vs. Republican Economic Records, 1910-2010, and of  CHRIST’S VENTRILOQUISTS: The Event that Created Christianity.

  • Jeffrey Sachs Destroys Hillary Clinton's Foreign Policy Speech

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    Screen Shot 2016-03-31 at 11.44.10 AM

    Hillary’s record includes supporting the barbaric “contras” against the Nicaraguan people in the 1980s, supporting the NATO bombing of the former Yugoslavia, supporting the ongoing Bush-Iraq War, the ongoing Afghan mess, and as Secretary of State the destruction of the secular state of Libya, the military coup in Honduras, and the present attempt at “regime change” in Syria. Every one of these situations has resulted in more extremism, more chaos in the world, and more danger to our country. Next will be the borders of Russia, China, and Iran. Look at the viciousness of her recent AIPAC speech (don’t say you haven’t been warned). Can we really bear to watch as Clinton “takes our alliance [with Israel] to the next level”? Where is our sense of proportion? Cannot the media, at the least, call her out on this extremism? The problem, I think, is this political miasma of “correctness” that dominates American thinking (i.e. Trump is extreme, therefore Hillary is not).

     

    – From the post: “We’re Going to War” – Oliver Stone Opines on the Dangerous Extremism of Neocon Hillary Clinton

    Jeffrey Sachs has been on a roll lately. His latest might be his best one yet.

    Published at the Huffington PostClinton’s Speech Shows That Only Sanders Is Fit for the Presidency, is an absolute must read. Here it goes:

    Hillary Clinton’s recent foreign policy speech was an attack on Donald Trump but was also a reminder that Clinton is a deeply flawed and worrisome candidate. Her record as Secretary of State was one of the worst in modern U.S. history; her policies have enmeshed America in new Middle East wars, rising terrorism and even a new Cold War with Russia. Of the three leading candidates, only Bernie Sanders has the sound judgment to avoid further war and to cooperate with the rest of the world.

     

    Clinton is intoxicated with American power. She has favored one war of choice after the next: bombing Belgrade (1999); invading Iraq (2003); toppling Qaddafi (2011); funding Jihadists in Syria (2011 till now). The result has been one bloodbath after another, with open wounds until today fostering ISIS, terrorism, and mass refugee flows.

     

    In her speech, Clinton engaged in her own Trump-like grandiose fear mongering: “[I]f America doesn’t lead, we leave a vacuum — and that will either cause chaos, or other countries will rush in to fill the void. Then they’ll be the ones making the decisions about your lives and jobs and safety — and trust me, the choices they make will not be to our benefit.”

     

    This kind of arrogance — that America and America alone must run the world — has led straight to overstretch: perpetual wars that cannot be won, and unending and escalating confrontations with Russia, China, Iran and others that make the world more dangerous. It doesn’t seem to dawn on Clinton that in today’s world, we need cooperation, not endless bravado.

     

    Clinton professed her belief “with all my heart that America is an exceptional country — that we’re still, in Lincoln’s words, the last, best hope of earth.” Yet surely President Lincoln was speaking in moral terms, not in Clinton’s militaristic terms. Lincoln did not mean that the last best hope of earth should send NATO bombers into Libya, the CIA into Syria, and Special Ops forces into countless other countries. Surely Lincoln would have been more prudent than to push NATO expansion to Russia’s very doorstep in Ukraine and Georgia, thereby triggering a violent response from Russia and a new Cold War. 

     

    Clinton lacks all self-awareness of how poorly she performed as Secretary of State. She trumpets her “successes” as follows: 

     

    Unlike [Trump], I have some experience with the tough calls and the hard work of statecraft. I wrestled with the Chinese over a climate deal in Copenhagen, brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, negotiated the reduction of nuclear weapons with Russia, twisted arms to bring the world together in global sanctions against Iran, and stood up for the rights of women, religious minorities and LGBT people around the world.

     

    Pure braggadocio. While Clinton “wrestled with China” over a climate deal, she failed to achieve one. While she “brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas,” she failed to head off the disastrous Gaza War in the first place. While she “negotiated the reduction of nuclear weapons with Russia,” she championed a remarkably confrontational approach with Russia based on NATO expansion to Ukraine and Georgia and a new nuclear arms race that will cost American taxpayers more than $355 billion over a decade. While she claims to have “stood up for the rights of women [and] religious minorities,” her Syrian adventurism left Syria devastated, displaced 10 million people, and destroyed the religious minority communities she claimed to defend.

     

    Clinton declared that she has a plan to defeat ISIS, but ISIS wouldn’t even exist were it not for Clinton’s “regime change” policy in Syria. ISIS emerged as a result of the US policy to partner with Saudi Arabia to topple Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. This mistaken policy created the chaos in which ISIS gained ground and weaponry, including US weaponry that was diverted from American-backed jihadists. 

    Of course, there’s more. Recall what we learned last year about the Clinton Foundation in the post, How Donations to the Clinton Foundation Led to Tens of Billions in Weapons Sales to Autocratic Regimes:

    Even by the standards of arms deals between the United States and Saudi Arabia, this one was enormous. A consortium of American defense contractors led by Boeing would deliver $29 billion worth of advanced fighter jets to the United States’ oil-rich ally in the Middle East.

     

    Israeli officials were agitated, reportedly complaining to the Obama administration that this substantial enhancement to Saudi air power risked disrupting the region’s fragile balance of power. The deal appeared to collide with the State Department’s documented concerns about the repressive policies of the Saudi royal family.

     

    These were not the only relationships bridging leaders of the two nations. In the years before Hillary Clinton became secretary of state, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia contributed at least $10 million to the Clinton Foundation, the philanthropic enterprise she has overseen with her husband, former president Bill Clinton. Just two months before the deal was finalized, Boeing — the defense contractor that manufactures one of the fighter jets the Saudis were especially keen to acquire, the F-15 — contributed $900,000 to the Clinton Foundation, according to a company press release.

    Now back to Sachs…

    Clinton rightly accused Trump of being unpredictable, yet Clinton is dangerously predictable. She is always trying to prove how tough she is, how tough America is, how exceptional is America’s power. Trump is unqualified to be President because he lacks both the necessary experience and good judgment. Clinton, by contrast, has the extensive experience that proves that she too lacks the good judgment to be President.

     

    Bernie Sanders, by contrast, not only offers a vastly better economic program than Clinton, but also a foreign policy based on wisdom, decency, and especially restraint. As a result, the American people trust Sanders rather than Clinton. She wins the closed primaries while he wins the open ones, that is, primaries that include the independent voters who will decide the November elections.

     

    The Democrats would be foolhardy to accept Clinton as the “inevitable” nominee; she is the voice of foreign policy failure, while Sanders is the voice of hope, the young, and the future, and who is far more likely to beat Trump this fall.

    As I remarked on Twitter earlier today:

  • The U.S. States With The Highest Tax Burdens In 2016

    Across the United States, some residents have to pay far more state and local tax than others. The amount you pay depends heavily on the state you reside in with New Yorkers suffering under the heaviest tax burden according to website Wallethub.

    As Statista detailsthe tax burden measures the percentage of a person’s income which goes towards state and local tax, different to the tax rate, which depends heavily on income and personal circumstances.

    Infographic: The U.S. States With The Highest Tax Burdens In 2016  | Statista
    You will find more statistics at Statista


    People in New York pay 13.12 percent of their income towards state and local tax, the highest rate nationwide.

    Its neighbours Vermont (11.13 percent), Connecticut (10.91 percent) and New Jersey (10.38 percent) also have some of the highest tax burdens in the country.

  • "Clinton Nemesis" Klayman Comes To Trump's Defense: "Trump Right About Judicial Bias And Prejudice"

    It has been a difficult day for Donald Trump, with virtually everyone, enemies as well as alleged allies coming down on him like a ton of bricks over his comments about Judge Gonzalo Curiel’s alleged bias and prejudice against him. Just moments ago, The Hill issued an article titled “GOP aghast as Trump doubles down” in which it writes that “a defiant Donald Trump is refusing to backtrack over racially charged remarks he made last week, and the controversy has opened up a major divide between the presumptive Republican presidential nominee and senior GOP leaders. Republican calls for Trump to walk back the comments or apologize have mounted. But true to his style, he is doubling down.

    In fact, so for just one person has stepped up in Trump’s defense on the record: that person is Larry Klayman, a former prosecutor for the U.S. Department of Justice who was on the trial team that broke up AT&T, and founder of Judicial Watch and now Freedom Watch. Klayman has been called the “Clinton nemesis” for his dozens of lawsuits against the Bill Clinton administration in the 90s. Also, without the Judicial Watch organization which he founded, virtually no discovery would have been achieved in any of the “probes” involving Hillary Clinton’s email server. The founder of Judicial Watch and the government watchdog group Freedom Watch, he has brought legal action against former Vice President Dick Cheney, President Barack Obama, OPEC, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Supreme Court Justice Elena Kagan, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg, and the National Security Agency.

    Klayman issued this statement in response to the overly harsh and dishonest criticism leveled against Donald Trump over federal judge Gonzalo Curiel’s alleged bias and prejudice against him.

    Klayman has this to say:

    “This harsh criticism, designed to inflame Latino-Americans, and influence the upcoming presidential election by Hillary Clinton and the Republican establishment like Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker Paul Ryan (who would like to see Trump lose to Clinton so they can run their Republican establishment candidate against her in 2020), that Trump is racist as shown by his comments about the possible influence of federal judge Curiel’s Mexican-American heritage in making rulings in the Trump University case now before him, intentionally ignores reality and is intellectually and intentionally dishonest. So too is overly harsh reaction by the mainstream media about Trump’s claims.

    Does anyone believe that judges, like nearly all persons, are not influenced by their backgrounds and heritage? Indeed, in my nearly 40 years of legal practice, I have come upon many judges who wear their national origin and race on their sleeve. Judges are human and react to events just like everyone else. And, regrettably, particularly in the federal judiciary, where judges are nominated based on political patronage, and frequently take the bench after confirmation without any training in how to be a judge and mete out not just justice but the appearance of justice, this bias and prejudice frequently seeps through to their decision-making.

    Clinton, McConnell, and Ryan, to name just a few of the political hacks that infest the nation’s capital and our body politic at large, are dishonestly selling an “Alice in Wonderland” bill of goods to the American people to further their own political agendas.

    In 1994, I founded Judicial Watch – the name was meant to connote watching and keeping judges honest – because I had experienced as a trial lawyer the same type of bias and prejudice and unfair rulings of which Trump claims. In the years leading up to my founding of Judicial Watch, I represented mostly U.S. importers and foreign exporters in international trade cases and litigation and saw the bias and prejudice of some judges against my clients because their national origin and the influence of big money with the politicians who got them their jobs. I was offended and disgusted, and wanted to do something about this, and so I founded Judicial Watch.

    Recently, in a criminal prosecution of Cliven Bundy in Las Vegas federal court, where I have sought to appear as Mr. Bundy’s criminal defense counsel along with a fine local lawyer (as I have written on www.wnd.com in my weekly columns), I have again experienced bias and prejudice against my client by a federal judge of Mexican-American heritage who is likely in part hostile because I represent Sheriff Joe Arpaio in a Supreme Court case challenging President Barack Obama’s executive amnesty orders. This federal judge, Gloria Navarro, like Judge Curiel in the Trump University case, is a Latina activist and attended law school in Maricopa County, where Arpaio is sheriff. She was recommended to the bench by Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, who has said publicly that Cliven Bundy and his family are “domestic terrorists,” and that they should be imprisoned. President Obama, who nominated Navarro at Reid’s urging, has also attacked Cliven Bundy, falsely suggesting that Cliven Bundy is racist. In short, Judge Navarro, I sincerely believe, influenced by her national origin and allegiance to Reid and Obama, has made a number of biased and highly prejudicial rulings that have abridged and effectively trashed Cliven Bundy’s constitutional rights by denying him his Sixth Amendment right to counsel and a speedy trial. For a time, Judge Navarro also apparently had Cliven Bundy imprisoned in solitary confinement. Judge Navarro has even suggested that Cliven Bundy’s wife should be indicted along with him and his sons, following the lead of her benefactors, Reid and Obama. My co-counsel in Cliven Bundy’s criminal defense has moved to disqualify her, which she predictably denied and the matter is now headed to the appeals court.

    Judge Curiel in the Trump University case was reportedly a member of La Raza, a radical Latino group that believes in Latino superiority over non-Latinos. Thus, whether or not Trump is right about his bias and prejudice, in the real world it is likely that his alleged unfair rulings have been influenced by this.

    Those who criticize Trump or others who see the world for what it is, and attack them for raising important issues about the judicial bias and prejudice that permeates our federal judiciary in particular, are not being honest with the American people.

    In short, our federal legal system and its judiciary is politicized, frequently intellectually dishonest and in some quarters even totally corrupt (the state court judiciary is not much better) and that is one big reason why I carry on as head of my new group Freedom Watch and in private practice to fight against this tyranny.”

  • China's Real Unemployment Rate Is Three Times Higher Than The Offical Number

    When it comes to fake data, China is in a class of its own: between fabricated export and import numbers (where hundreds of billion in capital flight are hidden), to massaged, goalseeked GDP “data”, Chinese economic reporting has become a laughing stock across the developed world. Just last night, we showed a Goldman analysis according to which China was also misrepresenting its broadest credit aggregate, Total Social Financing, by hundreds of billions if not more as it was not accounting for shadow banking flows that did not end up in the economy.

    And now, based on a new report by Fathom Consulting, it appears that China is also dramatically misreporting what may be the one most critical for social stability metric, its unemployment rate, which when stripped away of the political propaganda, is more than three times greater than the officially reported rate.

    According to Fathom, China’s underemployment Indicator has tripled to 12.9% since 2012 even while the official jobless rate has hovered near 4% for five years.

    Here Bloomberg confirms what we said last year, namely that the risk of a social upheaval as a result of millions of newly unemployment workers in a “deregulated economy”, is why China quickly went back to its old ways unleashed the recent record amount of debt. To wit: “the weakening labor market may explain China’s decision to uncork the credit spigots and revive old growth drivers in an effort to stabilize the world’s no. 2 economy.”

    Leaders have stressed that keeping employment stable is a top priority. Fathom’s data shows that while mass layoffs haven’t materialized, the number of people not working at full capacity or hours has increased.  “The degree of slack has surged in recent years,” analysts at the London-based firm wrote. “China has a substantial hidden unemployment problem, in our view, and that explains why the authorities have come under so much pressure to re-start the old growth engines.”

     

    Leaders of the world’s most populous nation have promised to slash excess capacity in coal mines and steel mills while at the same time ensuring that the economy grows by at least 6.5 percent this year. Across the nation, state-backed ‘zombie’ factories are being kept alive by local governments to keep a lid on any social unrest. To keep the plants ticking over, employees in some cases have been asked to work half the time for half the pay.

    Meanwhile, the official registered unemployment gauge is notorious for not changing during economic cycles. In other words, just like most other Chinese economic indicators, it is a total fabrication. It’s compiled from the number of people who register at local governments for unemployment benefits, which excludes most of the nation’s more than 270 million migrant workers. Another official jobless rate, just as useless, based on surveys into major cities and supposed to be more accurate, stayed at about 5.1% as of April. That’s also little changed in the past two years.

    Though official data show employment weathering a slowdown, any deviation from that would touch a nerve for top Communist Party officials. “Job insecurity is a key driver of social instability – something that China’s authorities need to avoid at all costs,” Fathom wrote.

    Another issue: just like in the US, productivity has become a major threat to China’s economy and as a result Beijing’s top officials are also concerned about waning productivity growth. That’s been “particularly weak” in the services sector, which absorbs most labor, the consultancy says. 

    Oddly enough, the same situation is taking place in the US – one could ask if the BLS is taking hints from China’s National Bureau of Statistics or vice versa.

    While growth slowed last year to 6.9%, the weakest in 25 years, Fathom estimates it was just a fraction of the official pace: 2%. This also means that unless China manages to continue creating $1 trillion in new debt every quarter – an amount equal to about 10% of its GDP – to keep the local population semi-employed and content, it is only a matter of time before Beijing biggest fear, social instability, materializes.

  • An Angry Bernie Sanders Responds To Hillary's Nomination

    Expect many confused pundits, and Bernie Sanders fans, to mull for hours why the AP released its critical announcement that Hillary had won the delegate race just hours before the important CA primary. For now, however, here is the response from a confused, unhappy, and perhaps angry, Bernie Sanders, released moments ago by his spokesman, Michael Briggs.

    It is unfortunate that the media, in a rush to judgment, are ignoring the Democratic National Committee’s clear statement that it is wrong to count the votes of superdelegates before they actually vote at the convention this summer.

     

    Secretary Clinton does not have and will not have the requisite number of pledged delegates to secure the nomination. She will be dependent on superdelegates who do not vote until July 25 and who can change their minds between now and then. They include more than 400 superdelegates who endorsed Secretary Clinton 10 months before the first caucuses and primaries and long before any other candidate was in the race.

     

    Our job from now until the convention is to convince those superdelegates that Bernie is by far the strongest candidate against Donald Trump.

    Welcome to the real world Bernie, and good luck because…

  • Demagoguery, Duopoly, & The Death Of America's Body Politic

    Authored by Ben Tanosborn,

    It seems such an improbability, impossibility at times, that such a diverse population in ethnicities, races, religions and ideologies be politically housed in two tents.  But this United States of America for all its diversity, and at times forced accommodation, did manage early on in its history to develop an economic critical center of gravity – a large, unprecedented economic marketplace – that kept the nation un-fragmented, magically glued principally because of a single reason: an unrivaled economic prosperity that the United States maintained for its people vis-à-vis other economies in the world. 

    However, that unique economic and political America that Alexis de Tocqueville would describe almost two centuries ago [Democracy in America] may have had its incredible seven-generation run, and be now ready for a meltdown; for the patent to that magic glue held by America has now expired, free for all to emulate via globalization.  And, ‘though the international playing field has yet to become competitively flat, we might just be a short generation away from that occurring; and the miracle that once was America could soon become but a memory of recent past.

    Poof… goes the American mythic star!  The diamond-studded American exceptionalism, together with the touted and revered American dream – dual virtuosity that we were made to believe came from above… from a god who prejudicially played favoritism on our behalf – are rapidly coming to an end, as we begin to recognize and acknowledge that our lucky star was mainly the result of an unprecedentedly large marketplace that industrious Americans created in their westward territorial expansion… something which de Tocqueville clearly saw and aptly described in the 1820’s.

    No matter what politicians of the two hardly distinguishable brands tell us, the future does not bode well for either political party content in alternating their unashamed ineptitude running the nation for as long as most of us can remember for the benefit of a privileged few.  Both Democrats and Republicans, and here we mean the officialdom and not the rank and file, might soon be in for a rude awakening with the exit of politics-as-usual and the disappearance of the newly-birthed nobility in America represented by the parasite political-class which has usurped “the government by the people” in that proclamation of national purpose made by Abraham Lincoln at Gettysburg (1863).   

    If politicians were honest, be they apprentices or masters, they wouldn’t be clamoring such ignorant-idiocy during the presidential campaign as expressed in “make America great again (Donald Trump),” or “fighting for us (Hillary Clinton),” but rather spouse more dignified, non-xenophobic slogans, aiming at what has been lacking in our lives: fairness and justice for everyone in America.  But in politics, just as in other aspects of American life, sleaze reigns supreme; honesty and dishonesty so intertwined in our lives that often we have difficulty differentiating between those who commit crimes and their victims; those leaders who have our best interests and welfare at heart, and those paladins of sleaze who politically take advantage of us for their personal enrichment.

    The disappearance of that favored economic status which gave Americans a cushion in helping to cope with diversity is already being felt, bringing about both rebuke and remake of politics as we are experiencing them today, with the final rites for two-party politics to take place sooner than anticipated as Republican and Democratic politicians could soon be writing their duopoly obituaries after jointly having placed much of the population in dire straits relative to both the economy and personal safety.

    And the different constituencies – not so much their leaders but their memberships – are beginning to question whether their loyalty to either of the two parties have been abused or misused; whether they might have fared better had they taken charge of their own destiny with their own clear advocacies and “in-house” leadership, instead of leaving things in the hands of master politicians who have continually demonstrated to be no patron saints to their memberships, nor strong advocates for their needs.

    Demagoguery has ruled the day for blacks, browns and labor unions who have cast their lot with the self-serving leadership of the Democratic Party, all vestiges of progressivism thrown out the window during Bill Clinton’s tenure in the White House; and, similarly, that demagoguery has also applied to fiscal and social conservatives who have rendered homage to a leadership in a Republican Party whose sole advocacy has been the advancement [in money and power] of an elite that has little in common with the highly regarded historical precepts of the Grand Old Party, or ideological conservatism.

    It does look as if this presidential election, given both the character and the judgment of the presumptive (and presumptuous) nominees, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, could very well be the catalyst for a renovation of our body politic; at least fire that first shot to initiate a race that will overhaul, rapidly and democratically, American politics. 

  • Live Webcast: Hillary Holds Campaign Rally After Learning She Is The Presumptive Nominee

    While Bernie Sanders’ fans will be understandably surprised, if not downright furious, by the timing of the AP report, Hillary’s supporters will be delighted, as will Hillary herself. Here she is campaigning in  rally in Long Beach, CA, where he has just learned she is the presumptive nominee.

  • China Capital Outflow Crackdown: "Surprisingly Plump" Man Busted With $74,000 Strapped To His Waist

    As the pace of capital outflows from China gathers pace (as detailed here, here, here, and here) it appears the Chinese are not satisfied with just Bitcoin. Today, in a scene straight out of the Wolf of Wall Street, we learn that a man was caught by Shenzhen officials as he tried to leave the country with US$74,000 strapped to his waist.

    Mainland rules state that people who leave the country with more than US$5,000 in cash must notify the customs authority, which will then issue a bank certificate permitting the funds to leave the country – if authorities choose to allow it. The man clearly wasn't about to go down that path and alert authorities (at least intentionally) that he was leaving town with US$74k, something that will let's say be "frowned upon" by Chinese authorities.

    Shenzhen officials became suspicious of the man because he wore a jacket even though it was hot and humid, and then the "surprisingly plump" looking man appeared nervous while queuing up to pass through customs. After he was stopped and questioned by customs officers, an alarm sounded when a scanner revealed that the man had US dollars packed into six large pockets that were sewn into a large scarf and wrapped around his waist.

    * * *

    It is unclear what the ultimate fate of the man will be, although there is a good chance he will be "disappeared" – should have gone with the girl…

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Today’s News 6th June 2016

  • DiD You KNoW THeRe'S AN ACCEPTaBLe LeVeL OF RaT TuRDS THaT CaN Go INTO CaNDY BaRS?

    BREAKING BILLARY

  • What Most Syrians See Of Their War

    Submitted by Eric Zuesse, Investigative historian and author of They’re Not Even Close: The Democratic vs. Republican Economic Records, 1910-2010, and of  CHRIST’S VENTRILOQUISTS: The Event that Created Christianity.

    What Most Syrians See of Their War

    Here is a video of what most Syrians are seeing and experiencing of the war, and it’s titled “Living in the crosshairs, May 29th 2016 ENG SUBS” (the “ENG SUBS” means “English subtitles”).

    by frontinfo-info

    It refers to attackers being the “Free Syrian Army” (who were founded by Riad al-Asaad, no relation to Bashar al-Assad — and spelled and pronounced differently — and he was a proponent of a fundamentalist Sunni Syrian constitution). It also refers to (and shows victims of) the “canisters” which the FSA is firing westward, from the Aleppo city area that the FSA controls, into the city’s “Midan District,” which is controlled by the Syrian government.

    The FSA is America’s chosen group of fighters (Barack Obama’s terms for them are ‘the moderate opposition’ and ‘moderate rebels’, but they’re just the people that the U.S. government overtly back — not back covertly like Syria’s branch of Al Qaeda and some other groups). All these groups are trying to overthrow the Syrian government, and, though they often cooperate with one-another, like with Al Qaeda in Syria (called “Al Nusra”), and ISIS (also called “ISIL” and “Daesh”), the groups also occasionally attack each other, because each of the groups is trying to increase its territory and wants to emerge victorious to control all of Syria, or of as much of Syria as possible, in the final settlement.

    Virtually all members of each one of these groups are jihadists, but different foreign countries are backing different ones of these groups, and America’s preferred group happens to be the FSA — the group that’s firing these “canisters.”

    At 1:46 in the video, the flag of the “Sultan Murad Faction” is being flown; at 1:50  it’s the flag of Al Nusra. So, this time the groups are all working together, because of their shared goal of conquering the Syrian government in the Midan District, which they’ve apparently just done here, at least for the time being. The Sultan Murad group are backed by Turkey (which, under Erdogan, has become a fundamentalist-Sunni country, like the Arab monarchies are, but without the oil). Al Qaeda is mainly backed by the Sauds, U.S. allies against Assad.

    Each of these groups is bankrolled by somewhat different financial interests, but all of those interests are united in their desire to overthrow the non-sectarian government that has been ruling in Syria, and that the U.S. CIA has been trying, ever since 1949, to overthrow and replace by a fundamentalist Sunni government (which will favor the fundamentalist-Sunni Sauds, our allies). Though the majority of Syrians have always supported a non-sectarian Syria, various factions of Sunni Islam in fundamentalist-Sunni foreign countries have (especially after the severe 2007-2010 drought in Syria, and the consequent intense “Arab Spring” anti-government movement in Syria during 2011) supplied weapons and fighters to jihadists to overthrow Assad, and they also finance propaganda to recruit jihadists from all around the world, to fight in Syria and maybe become heavenly martyrs in this ‘holy war’ or jihad, against the ‘infidel’ non-sectarian Syrian government, which, moreover, is led by the Shiite Bashar al-Assad — and all Shiites should be killed, according to such fundamentalist Sunni teachings (which originate in, and are led by, Saudi Arabia).

    The United States is allied here actually with the Saud family who own Saudi Arabia, and with their friends the Thani family who own Qatar, and also with their friends the Sabah family who own Kuwait, and also with the six royal families who own UAE; and all of these fundamentalist-Sunni royal families are aiming to supply their oil and gas, and pipelines for oil and gas, selling into the world’s largest energy-market, Europe. Those pipelines would be built through Syria, which is the reason why the U.S. and its Gulf-state allies want to take Syria over, or at least to conquer enough of a strip through what today is Syria, so as to enable construction of these pipelines into Europe.

    Whereas America’s goal in this is mainly to strangle Russia, which is the biggest current supplier of oil and gas into the European market, the main goal of the royal Arab families is to expand their markets, to grab a bigger share of Europe’s energy sales. Pipelined oil and gas tends to be cheaper and therefore more cost-competitive than trucked or shipped oil and gas; so, this is a “pipeline war,” to expand markets.
    That’s what the Syrian war is all about. Whereas for America it’s to conquer Russia; for the Arab royals, it’s to supply a bigger share of Europe’s energy-imports. For Turkey, it’s to grab a share of the oil-sales stolen by these jihadists, oil from Iraq and Syria, and also to serve within NATO as the agents of royal Arab families, a bridge between NATO and the Gulf Cooperation Council. That bridge is a valuable and profitable function to fulfill.

    The millions of refugees that are being produced by this war, many of whom are fleeing to Europe, are just the results, basically, of this land-clearing operation in Syria, to get rid of the people who are supporting the current Syrian government, which is allied with Russia, instead of with the U.S. and its allies.

    So: those “canisters” are intended to terrify enough Syrians to flee, so that (it’s hoped) enough land can be cleared of population, in order for the desired pipelines to be built.

    And Syrians know this. Consequently, not only are the various jihadist groups despised by from two-thirds to around 80% of the Syrian public, but at least 55% of Syrians would vote for Bashar al-Assad to be the country’s leader, in any free and fair election — and Obama knows this, which is the reason why he has strenuously opposed democracy in Syria, and even Ban ki-Moon has (though very quietly) condemned Obama’s position that rejects democracy in Syria. Furthermore, the Syrian people overwhelmingly (by 82%, to be exact) cite the U.S. as being the main source of the immense suffering they face.

    In other words: terrorizing the population is good, not bad, from the standpoint of the U.S. and its allies — and many Syrians know this. But the few anti-Assad fighters who loathe ISIS and who have been praised by the U.S. government don’t necessarily know or understand this. The few anti-Assad fighters who, for whatever reason (be it that they’re competing against ISIS, or maybe even that they genuinely detest ISIS) have tried to help the U.S. CIA against ISIS, have even been stunned to find the U.S. government uninterested. It doesn’t make sense to them.

    To clear the land, terror is good, not bad; the CIA mustn’t get in the way, and they don’t. It’s one reason why those FSA fighters who had taken seriously the U.S. government’s anti-ISIS rhetoric, have, in many cases, subsequently become disillusioned, and cooperate now with al-Nusra and other such groups, which are only marginally less extremist than ISIS is. At least ISIS isn’t lying to them, like the U.S. government does.

    Since the European governments are allied with the U.S., those governments are torn about what to do with the refugees that the U.S.-and-allied operation is producing (and is intended to produce). At least up till now, far more Europeans hate the refugees than hate the U.S. government, and so the problem is merely a political annoyance to EU leaders, not yet a cause for breakup of the Western Alliance (European countries’ alliance with the U.S. government), which still seems strong, and which is still strongly supported by Europeans (including even by the ones who hate these refugees — refugees who are result of that very alliance, which they support).

    Though this land-clearing operation creates a nuisance in Europe, it’s far more than that, a life-and-death matter, in Syria. For Arab aristocracies, it’s being done mainly for business (it’s not about ideology, except Sunni versus Shia); but for America’s aristocracy, it’s mainly for power: conquering Russia, by getting rid of Russia’s allies, surrounding Russia, then going in for the kill — unless the Russian government first submits and posts a white flag of surrender (in which case the West will take over Russia’s oil and gas etc., ‘peacefully’).

    Perhaps the Western Alliance will continue as it is. But maybe it won’t. For the millions of Syrians in the midst of the hell that Washington and its allies are causing there, a lot might depend on whether it will continue as it is. Without the Western Alliance, the foreign jihadists who are destroying their country would have to leave. Those jihadists are utterly dependent upon the support of Barack Obama, King Saud, Tayyip Erdogan, Angela Merkel, and the other leaders of the Western Alliance. None of those leaders can continue this ongoing invasion of Syria, without the continuing support of their Western comrades. The destruction of Syria is a team-effort. But maybe the team will fall apart before it can achieve the type of victory that’s required for real ‘success’. Which side will give up this war first?

    One thing’s for sure: What Syrians see of their war is not going to endear them to The West. And this also means: it’s not going to endear them to Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United States. Will it endear them to the EU? Certainly not if the EU turns them away as refugees. However, if the EU separates from the U.S., then maybe, just maybe, there can emerge favorable relations between Europe and the secular Arabs who have long constituted the majority of Syrians. The problem for them has been the U.S. government and the fundamentalist Sunni Arab royal families. The question then is: Will Europeans continue to be allied with them? Or, if not, then how soon will the Western Alliance break up?

  • Goldman Finds That China's Debt Is Far Greater Than Anyone Thought

    When it comes to China’s new credit creation, at least the country is not shy about exposing how much it is. To find the credit tsunami flooding China at any given moment, one just has to look up the latest monthly Total Social Financing number which include both new bank loans as well as some shadow banking loans. As we reported in April this amount had soared to a record $1 trillion for the first quarter …

     

    … although as we followed up last month, it tumbled in April as suddenly Beijing slammed the brakes on uncontrolled credit expansion. It is unclear why, although the following chart may have had something to do with it: increasingly less of credit created is making its way into the broader economy.

    No matter the reason for these sharp swings in credit creation, one thing that was taken for granted by all is that unlike China’s GDP, or most of its “hard” macroeconomic data, at least its credit creation metrics were somewhat reliable, and as such provided the best glimpse into Chinese economic inflection points.

    That appears to no longer be the case.

    In an analysis conducted by Goldman’s MK Tang, the strategist notes that a frequent inquiry from investors in recent months is how much credit has actually been extended to Chinese households and corporates. He explains that this arises from debates about the accuracy of the commonly used credit data (i.e., total social financing (TSF)) in light of an apparent rise in financial institutions’ (FI) shadow lending activity (as well as due to the ongoing municipal bond swap program).

    Tang adds that while it is clear that banks’ investment assets and claims on other FIs have surged, it is unclear how much of that reflects opaque loans, and also how much such loans and off-balance sheet credit are not included in TSF. By the very nature of shadow lending, it is almost impossible to reach a conclusion on these issues based on FIs’ asset information.

    Goldman circumvents these data complications by instead focusing on the “money” concept, a mirror image to credit on FIs’ funding side. The idea is that money is created largely only when credit is extended—hence an effective gauge of “money” can give a good sense of the size of credit. We construct our own money flow measure, specifically following and quantifying the money flow from households/corporates.

    Goldman finds something stunning: true credit creation in China was vastly greater than even the comprehensive Total Social Financing series. To wit: “a substantial amount of money was created last year, evidencing a very large supply of credit, to the tune of RMB 25tn (36% of 2015 GDP). This is about RMB 6tn (or 9pp of GDP) higher than implied by TSF data (even after adjusting for municipal bond swaps). Divergence from TSF has been particularly notable since Q2 last year after a major dovish shift in policy stance.”

    As Goldman concludes, its finding suggests that the Chinese economy’s reliance on credit has deepened significantly, and adds that “our projection of China’s debt/GDP ratio for coming years has turned more unfavorable as a result.

    * * *

    For those curious about the details, here’s more from Goldman:

    How much credit has really been extended? 

     

    Total social financing (TSF) statistics are supposed to be a comprehensive measure of this but their accuracy has been affected by recent events—in particular, the ongoing municipal bond swap program and an apparent rise in “opaque loans” and/or off-balance sheet lending by financial institutions (we will generally call such lending “shadow lending” in this report). Recent official comments suggesting scope for a more systematic compilation process for TSF also point to potential quality issues with the statistics.

     

    The first data issue, i.e., municipal bond swap program, is relatively easy to address. It is mostly related to the different treatment of LGFV debt and municipal bonds in TSF statistics.[2] We have been adjusting for this factor by adding the municipal bond issuance for the swap program to the reported TSF to arrive at our measure of adjusted TSF, although the adjustment is not precise given uncertainty about the exact usage of the proceeds from the municipal bond swap issuance.

     

    But the second issue, i.e., shadow lending by financial institutions, presents a much greater data challenge. In listed banks’ balance sheets, investment assets have been rising rapidly. Media reports (e.g., here and here) and disclosures by individual banks indicate that banks have embedded some of their loans to corporates in these assets, driven by regulatory arbitrage (our Banks research team has discussed these developments in recent notes).[3] In part reflecting this phenomenon, macro monetary data published by the PBOC has also clearly shown that the banking sector’s “claims on non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs)” (and also banks’ “equity and other investment”) have been rising rapidly in the last several quarters (for the PBOC data on these items, see this and this). 

     

    These observations have raised questions and triggered debates, often revolving around the following issues:

     

    • How large is the system-wide size of “opaque loans” or, put another way, how much of banks’ NBFI claims is a result of opaque loans? In our view, it is not likely that all NBFI claims are opaque loans; they may be related to “financial round-tripping”—i.e., banks lend money to NBFIs (e.g., investment funds) that invest in financial markets and this money just circulates in the financial system and eventually comes back to banks without being “leaked” to the real economy. The “round-tripping” idea is indeed consistent with the corresponding very rapid increase in banks’ liabilities to NBFIs (Exhibit 1). It also dovetails with banks’ increasing tendency to allocate part of their capital to outside asset managers for financial investment in the secondary market (in what is called “entrusted investment” from banks), with the intention of boosting investment returns.
    • Besides the “opaque loans” held on banks’ balance sheet as part of investment assets, how much additional credit is extended off banks’ balance sheets?
    • To what extent is shadow lending (i.e., the on-balance sheet opaque loans plus off-balance sheet credit) already captured in TSF data?

    These issues lead to the ultimate macro question of how much credit has in fact been extended to the economy. It is naturally almost impossible to conclude by looking at the asset composition of FIs, as by design it is hard to tell what assets represent opaque loans and (to a lesser degree) how much off balance sheet exposure there is. Increasing interconnectedness amongst FIs via various evolving “channel” set ups certainly makes the task no easier.

    As the second chart from the top shows, M2 has become disconnected from loan creation in China. This has important consequences:

    We adopt another line of attack at the question: Namely, we look at the mirror image of credit (which is on FIs’ asset side) and focus on “money”, a metric related to FIs’ funding side. The basic idea is that credit generation is effectively a money creation process. Without credit creation, the amount of money would normally be unchanged no matter what happens in the real economy and vice versa (see Box 1 for more discussion on the general credit-money relationship).[5] With this linkage extended, it is possible to come to a reasonable estimate of the true pace credit flow (at least from banks) to the real economy by looking at growth of broad money, or M2, as we did a couple of years ago.

     

    There is a problem though with this simple proxy, i.e., China has been becoming much less banks-centric. M2, which is essentially banks’ deposits, is no longer broad enough to reflect all key funding elements as the financial system diversifies. In fact, recognition of the growing diversity of the financial system already led the PBOC to expand the coverage of M2 in late 2011 to also include NBFI deposits (vs. only household and corporate deposits previously), partly intended to account for the increasing importance of WMPs at that time. But even with that expansion, M2 does not sufficiently capture FIs’ funding sources nowadays for two related reasons: i) banks have been drawing a significant amount of funding from non-deposit sources such as money market mutual funds’ purchase of NCDs, which is not included in the current measure of M2 (Exhibit 2); and ii) NBFIs (e.g., investment funds, insurance asset managers) have been rising in popularity amongst households/corporates as saving and investment intermediaries, and their financial activity may not be fully reflected on banks’ balance sheet (i.e., conducted off banks’ balance sheet).

     

    On the other hand, though, including all elements of FIs’ funding side would not be ideal either, in our view, as that would overstate the pace of money created from lending to households/corporates, because of possible “financial round-tripping” (as discussed above) and double counting.

     

    Therefore, to deduce the size of credit flow to households/corporates, we construct our own measure of adjusted “money”, which is intended to be broad enough to capture increasing financial diversification but targeted enough to cover only funding that comes from and is owned by households/corporates.

    Goldman then proceeds to explain how it comes up with its own, adjusted, version of a comprehensive debt creation number in China, aka following the money trail. This process, while complex, can be summarized as follows:

     

    And quantitatively boils down to the following:

    This is how Goldman explains the variation:

    The broad trend of our measure seems clear, showing a significant jump in 2012 vs. 2011 and another, even bigger, jump last year vs. 2014. In comparison, M2 increased by only about RMB 16tn last year—a main reason for the difference is that a lot of “money” going into non-deposit financial channels is not included in M2. But in trying to follow the money flow more systematically as in our exercise, it seems clear that there was a lot of money created and circulating around amongst households and corporates relative to what the TSF shows, and this evidences that a very large relative amount of credit (as a % of GDP) was extended last year.

     

    How does our measure compare with the TSF data? To allow apples-to-apples comparison, we need a couple of additional adjustments:

    • We take out the FX loan portion of TSF (to match our RMB money concept), and also adjust that for the municipal bond swap program since mid 2015 as we discussed in the opening section
    • We add entrusted loans that are included in TSF to our adjusted money flow measure (as the money flow measure does not capture company-to-company lending

    Credit flow to households/corporates as indicated by our measure is not entirely aligned with what is implied by TSF data, but the two metrics are fairly close in 2011-2014 (Exhibit 5). However, there is a large gap of some RMB 6-7tn for 2015, suggesting that TSF data (even after adjusting for the municipal bond swap) misses a significant chunk of credit extended to households/corporates last year. 

     

    Our money flow measure points to much larger credit extended in 2015 than implied by TSF

     

     

    We next extend our money flow measure to quarterly frequency—we can only go back to 2013 when relevant information is available quarterly and can allow the quarterly series to be consistent with the annual one. The quarterly comparison shows that credit indicated by our measure and adjusted TSF began to diverge meaningfully in Q2 2015 and continued to widen in Q3-Q4 2015 (Exhibit 6). It is probably not a coincidence that the divergence happened amid a clear dovish shift in monetary policy stance (7-day repo interest rate fell about 200bps between Q1 ’15 and Q2 ’15; Exhibit 7), the general accommodative stance in Beijing following the major growth slowdown in early 2015, and policymakers’ encouragement for more financial diversification and innovation to relieve corporate financing constraints.

     

    Credit indicated by our measure started to diverge notably from adjusted TSF since Q2 2015…

    What about in 2016?

    It is not feasible to construct our adjusted money flow measure for Q1 ’16 yet given data limitations, but judging from the continued ytd increase in banks’ “equity and other investment” assets (which has been statistically correlated with the gap between our implied credit measure and adjusted TSF), it seems that as sizable as adjusted TSF was in Q1 (at about RMB 7.5tn), it might still understate the underlying credit flow to the real economy. In recent weeks, the regulator has announced some prudential tightening to discourage shadow lending activity, but how aggressively the regulator will implement the rules and the how effective the tightening will be remain to be seen.

    Goldman’s conclusion, which probably does not need much explanation because it is simple enough: China’s debt is far greater than anyone expected, is the following:

    An uncomfortable trend that has gotten more discomforting

     

    The results of our analysis have a few implications for our macro outlook:

     

    • In terms of short-term growth, our implied credit metric suggests that credit impulse to growth may be greater than that based on adjusted TSF, although the difference in magnitude may not be very significant.
    • For monetary policy, given that lower wholesale interest rates tend to give rise to more shadow lending, to the extent that the authorities intend to contain the latter, the scope for a meaningful fall in 7-day repo interest rate seems more limited in coming months unless growth sharply slows, in our view.
    • More worryingly, our implied credit metric indicates that the trend of China’s leverage has probably deteriorated faster than we previously thought, even though we had already expected the ratio to continue rising in the next few years. Compared to our previous estimates, the experience in 2015 suggests that the economy’s dependence on credit has deepened significantly and that it likely needs sizeable flow of credit on a persistent basis to maintain a stable level of growth. The chart below shows how much more unfavorable our baseline debt/GDP projection is now after incorporating our implied credit metric for 2015 vs. what it was based on data only until 2014.
    • Such a scale of deterioration certainly increases our concerns about China’s underlying credit problems and sustainability risk. The possibility that there is such a large amount of shadow lending going on in the system that is not captured in official statistics also points to regulatory gap, and underscores the lack of visibility on where potential financial stress points may lie and how a possible contagion may play out.

    Surge in shadow lending implies faster growth in debt-to-GDP ratio 

    In other words, not only was China lying about everything else, it was also fabricating its broadest credit creation aggregate, with the underlying “new credit” number turning out to be far greater than anyone had expected (or believed). And for someone as traditionally conservative and Goldman to warn that “that the trend of China’s leverage has probably deteriorated “, that “that the economy’s dependence on credit has deepened significantly and that it likely needs sizeable flow of credit on a persistent basis to maintain a stable level of growth” and that “such a scale of deterioration certainly increases our concerns about China’s underlying credit problems and sustainability risk“, must mean that China’s economy is about to fall off a cliff.

    Because once the rest of Wall Street catches up to Goldman’s most striking observation that “the possibility that there is such a large amount of shadow lending going on in the system that is not captured in official statistics also points to regulatory gap, and underscores the lack of visibility on where potential financial stress points may lie and how a possible contagion may play out”, then all those concerns about Chinese credit (and FX, and economic, and bubble) contagion will promptly return front and center to the global arena.

    * * *

    One final point: in recent days it almost seems that Goldman has been doing all in its power to precipitate a mini Chinese meltdown, whether short or long-term (recall “Goldman Unveils The FX Doom Loop: Turns “Outright Negative” On Yuan Due To “Weak Link“” from Thursday night).

    To be sure, the narrative over the past 6 months from everyone, has been “how stable” China has been. Well, Goldman just broke away from that very fragile game theoretical equilibrium in which everyone was desperately lying to preserve asset prices, by actually telling the truth and precipitating what will be the next crash.

    Why, we don’t know. However, with China now the fulcrum in any local or global central bank decision, and also the underlying catalyst for any marketwide risk-off bout, we do know that what Goldman “discovers” and warns about, soon everyone else on Wall Street will do too, until it becomes common knowledge and risk assets reprice correspondingly. Trade accordingly.

  • Despite White House Denials, FOIA Documents Prove Snowden Did Try To Voice Concerns With The NSA

    Edward Snowden's story is one that most know by now – the NSA contractor who went rogue and instead of going through available channels to voice his concerns, leaked sensitive government documents that revealed how the US surveillance state operates for all the world to see.

    Or at least, that's what the government's version of the story is.

    In a Vice News exclusive, based on over 800 pages of newly released documents from the NSA and countless interviews, Vice News finds that there is much more to the story that the public isn't being told. Snowden, according to Vice News, did have both email and face-to-face contact with compliance over concerns, and the available options for Snowden may not have been adequate during the time Snowden was actually working as a contractor at the NSA.

    At a bare minimum, Vice News provides valuable insight into the fact that while the NSA and other government agencies put on a public face that they were "sure" only a single email sent by Snowden, the investigation missed a lot of correspondence over time, and even a critical face-to-face interaction that wasn't documented until much later.

    The following helps walk through what Vice News found, however we encourage readers to read the full piece at Vice News.

    We'll start by pointing out a quick aside, and that is that Vice News also found as it received the FOIA documents, that the NSA admitted that it altered emails related to its discussions about Snowden – "unavoidably" of course.

    In a letter disclosed to VICE News Friday morning, Justice Department attorney Brigham Bowen said, "Due to a technical flaw in an operating system, some timestamps in email headers were unavoidably altered. Another artifact from this technical flaw is that the organizational designators for records from that system have been unavoidably altered to show the current organizations for the individuals in the To/From/CC lines of the header for the overall email, instead of the organizational designators correct at the time the email was sent."

    * * *

    The single email theory that the government trotted out is a bit more complex, as it involved multiple people from different departments as an answer was formulated. Everything was set in motion when Snowden clicked the "email us" link on the internal website of the NSA's Office of General Counsel (OGC) to ask his question on April 5, 2013.

    Snowden clicked the "email us" link on the internal website of the NSA's Office of General Counsel (OGC) and wrote, "I have a question regarding the mandatory USSID 18 training."

     

    United States Signals Intelligence Directive 18 (USSID 18) encompasses rules by which the NSA is supposed to abide in order to protect the privacy of the communications of people in the United States. Snowden was taking this and other training courses in Maryland while working to transition from a Sysadmin to an analyst position. Referring to a slide from the training program that seemed to indicate federal statutes and presidential Executive Orders (EOs) carry equal legal weight, Snowden wrote, "this does not seem correct, as it seems to imply Executive Orders have the same precedence as law. My understanding is that EOs may be superseded by federal statute, but EOs may not override statute."

    On the morning of May 29, 2014, after Snowden had gone public, the general counsel of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) Robert Litt, wrote an email to high level officials with a topic saying "What to do about Edward Snowden." In it the back and forth, NSA's general counsel Rajesh De, advocated for the public release of the Snowden email because De believed it was weak enough to call Snowden's credibility into question. However, Litt disagreed – for the time being… "I'm not sure that releasing the email will necessarily prove him a liar. It is, I could argue, technically true that Snowden's email raised concerns about the NSA's interpretation of its legal authorities. As I recall, the email essentially questions a document that Snowden interpreted as claiming that Executive Orders were on par with statutes. While that is surely not raising the kind of questions that Snowden is trying to suggest he raised, neither does it seem to me that email is a home run refutation."

    Of course, Litt had his mind changed, as in a recent interview with Vice News Litt said "To the extent Snowden was saying he raised his concerns internally within the NSA, no rational person could read this as being anything other than a question about an unclear single page of training."

    The NSA formulated a plan early on to get ahead of an interview Snowden had conducted with Vanity Fair  by acting proactively and with certainty that Snowden's facts were't correct. However they would need absolute certainty that Snowden had not communicated his concerns, and approval from the DOJ to release the email – neither of which the NSA had at the moment Vice writes. So the NSA decided to dig further…

    "We need great certainty about whether or not there is/was additional correspondence before we stake the reputation of the Agency on a counter narrative," a person from the task force replied in an email addressed to counterintelligence, the legislative affairs office, and the office of general counsel on April 9. "I am going to trigger an action for the appropriate organizations to do an e-mail search [redacted] to affirm that there is no further correspondence that could substantiate Snowden's claim."

    Later, while preparing to respond to an NBC news interview fact checking inquiry, the NSA still couldn't confirm that there was 100% assurance that no further correspondence had been had by Snowden and the NSA about his questions.

    "Raj, if you are looking for 100% assurance there isn't possibly any correspondence that may have been overlooked I can't give you that," an NSA official, whose name was redacted, wrote in response to De. "If you asked me if I think we've done responsible, reasonable and thoughtful searches I would say 'yes' and would put my name behind sharing the e-mail as 'the only thing we've found that has any relationship to [Snowden's] allegation. Give [sic] Snowden's track record for truth telling we should be prepared that he could produce falsified e-mails and claim he sent them. The burden then falls to us to prove he didn't (you know how that will end)."

    Continued infighting between the NSA, DOJ, AND ODNI took place on whether or not to release that Snowden email, and the pressure only grew to make a decision as now Reuters was onto the single email issue.

    "Reuters is now pounding the pavement over the email issue," she wrote. "[Brian] Williams clearly said multiple sources confirmed at least 1 email" that Snowden had sent raising his concerns.

    However, about three hours before the NSA was to release the "single email", a special agent assigned to the NSA's counterintelligence division sent an email to other counterintelligence officials about additional Snowden emails found within divisions at the NSA Snowden had said he had contacted with his concerns. Roughly thirty emails were discovered from the security office that Snowden either sent or received, and although none were related to Snowden's concerns at the time, the fact that the NSA truly hadn't found any more emails was troubling. Especially since they had decided to go with the "one sole email" theory.

    The confidence that the NSA would soon display publicly that it discovered only one email was not reflective of what was taking place behind the scenes. De was still looking for assurances that it was the only communication from Snowden — but no one could confidently say there weren't other emails that had been overlooked.

     

    "I would encourage you to work with your staff to give yourself confidence that requests of your folks to check for records are/were sufficiently robust to underpin your personal level of confidence," someone at the NSA said in an email to De hours before Snowden's email was released. "l am not in any way suggesting that people did not take the requests seriously — they did, but they did so under time pressure."

     

    Rogers was informed via email by someone at the NSA whose name was redacted that the plan, which was based on "dialog with the White House," called for White House press secretary Jay Carney to read a prepared statement and indicate that the one email Snowden wrote, "the same benign email that you and I discussed," would be released later in the day.

    As Vice News reports, it turns out that more communications were located, but a person or people at the agency withheld these details, which contained important context about Snowden's correspondence, from the media and even from director Rogers.

    About an hour after the Snowden email was finally released, and after the White House said only one piece of correspondence from Snowden had been located, other emails were found, one indicating that Snowden had a verbal communication with compliance that the NSA's counterintelligence investigation wasn't aware of. The NSA continued on the path of saying there was no further correspondence found about any concerns, although they did admit more and more information was starting to come to light that could have been missed. Senator Feinstein also piled on to that plan.

    Snowden responded to the release of the email saying that it was "incomplete"

    It "does not include my correspondence with the Signals Intelligence Directorate's Office of Compliance, which believed that a classified executive order could take precedence over an act of Congress, contradicting what was just published. It also did not include concerns about how indefensible collection activities — such as breaking into the back-haul communications of major US internet companies — are sometimes concealed under E.O. 12333 to avoid Congressional reporting requirements and regulations," Snowden said.

     

    Snowden's statement resulted in a barrage of media inquiries to the Office of Public Affairs and dozens of FOIA requests seeking any additional material showing that he raised concerns. However, the NSA refused to entertain any additional questions, instead providing reporters with a copy of their prepared statement and the sole email.

    What was further revealed, is that there were in fact other communications by Snowden. There was an in-person contact with an oversight and compliance training person that was uncovered, and although the compliance person brushed it off as complaints about trick questions on a test, however as Vice News states, it coincides with the timeframe where Snowden would have sent the email, and it was doubtful Snowden was agonizing over failing an open book test.

    Then there was the in-person contact with Snowden. As the Oversight and Compliance training woman described in an email written a year later, he "appeared at the side of my desk in the Oversight and Compliance training area… shortly after lunch time." Snowden did not introduce himself, but "seemed upset and proceeded to say that he had tried to take" the basic course introducing Section 702 "and that he had failed. He then commented that he felt we had trick questions throughout the course content that made him fail." Once she gave him "canned answers" to his questions, "he seemed to have calmed down" but said "he still thought the questions tricked the students."

     

    That may well have been what the exchange seemed like to the woman, though it is unlikely Snowden, who six weeks later would walk out of the NSA with thumb drives full of NSA secrets, was agonizing over failing an open-book test.

    NSA records show that the OGC received complaints from Snowden about at least two different training programs within days, and that he knew they were speaking to each other about his question. However in its internal assessment of Snowden's communications, the NSA treated them as two separate incidents.

    Vice makes the case that the email to the OGC and face-to-face communication could have happened the same day, however it has been difficult to confirm due to the timestamp issues in the FOIA request.

    The NSA tried to make the case that Snowden should have known where to voice his concerns, due to sometimes mandatory training. However, the NSA stops short of saying that Snowden ever did complete the training.

    Vice also makes the observation that the path Snowden should have followed according to the NSA may have been put in place in response to Snowden, so the available resources to Snowden may have been inadequate. And also, at the end of the day, it's not clear that the policies apply to contractors.

    * * *

    We'll leave it up to readers to decide what they believe, but there sure is a lot more unanswered questions than answers in this case – here is the full article at Vice News.

    However, Edward Snowden, for one, feels better about the unveiling, although he remains adamant that there is much more to the story.

  • Top Democrats Are Plotting To Oust Sanders, Convince His Followers To Vote Hillary

    Submitted by Claire Bernish via TheAntiMedia.org,

    In an election already fraught with controversy akin to a political soap opera, a report on Friday revealed top Democrats have begun plotting ways to force Sen. Bernie Sanders to exit the race without offending his loyal fandom to somehow align Democratic voters behind Hillary Clinton.

    Though it might be an impossible task, politicians coordinating the effort don’t want to appear as if they’re trying to ‘strong-arm’ Sanders from the race, according to CNN. Citing “interviews” with unnamed “senators, House members, and senior party officials,” CNN reported the planners would attempt to convince the Vermont senator he stands no statistical chance at the presidency — and should thus persuade his legions of supporters to vote for Hillary.

    Sanders’ fans — and a number of analysts — might beg to differ on his chances at actually winning the White House, considering both Clinton and Trump continue to poll at record-breaking rates of disapproval — and more voters say they’ll vote for either only because they dislike the other more. In fact, this plot stretches the bounds of sensibility — in several polls, Clinton runs nearly neck and neck with Trump, while Sanders trounces the billionaire.

    Predictions run the gamut for who will ultimately take this election, but rumors persist that Clinton had somehow been ‘pre-selected’ for the role — and as tin-foil as that may appear at cursory glance, the theory isn’t devoid of evidence…

    Hillary almost magically wins primaries where the vote had appeared too close to call.

     

    Voters mysteriously find themselves ousted from rolls or have their party switched in an astonishing number of states.

     

    A “Hillary for Nevada” logo emblazoned the sign-in sheet for at least one location in the state’s caucus, and Hillary supporters were allowed to participate without registering first — in flagrant violation of electoral law.

     

    And those examples comprise just a fraction of the mountain of evidence.

     

    Democratic establishment leaders have adamantly pushed for a Clinton nomination through the entire election cycle, despite a now-thunderous call for the former secretary of state to be prosecuted for a plethora of questionable — and probably criminal — activities.

    Nevermind Clinton’s noticeable lack of support on social media platforms — the exact places both Sanders and Trump cultivate with stunning success — the establishment believes attaching popular Sen. Elizabeth Warren as running mate might be the ticket.

    “She can take away [Bernie’s] power by showing there’s no division within the party,” said an unnamed source who supports the addition of Warren, as cited by CNN.

    But there is division — indeed a deepening, widening chasm — and the exhaustive push to install Clinton inarguably drives that exact disjuncture. Sanders’ followers aren’t likely to be fooled by the superficial application of a Warren Band-Aid to the patchwork of reasons they would never stomach voting Clinton.

    “One thing I’m slightly worried about is the tone and tenor of the convention,” said Clinton-backing Sen. Chris Murphy. “We’re going to need a very positive and unified convention. [Sanders is] going to have to send a very clear signal to his delegates that he wants them to be vocal and loud in support of Hillary in our convention.”

    Such optimism doesn’t have much company, as some have predicted division in the party will erupt in violence at the Democratic National Convention in July.

    Nevertheless, as the Party prepares to go forward with its campaign against Sanders — and as rumors circulate Hillary could face prosecution any time now — perhaps those anonymous top Dems would be better served finding the gall to align behind a nontraditional candidate than risk fracturing the Party beyond repair.

  • This Is Where US Adults Get Their News From

    As social media continues to become a larger part of many people's everyday lives, it's not surprising to see that users are now more than ever getting news from the social media platforms.

    A survey by Pew Research found that 62% of US adults get their news on social media, which is up from 49% reported in 2012. Of the 62%, 18% responded that they often get news from social media, 26% said sometimes, and 18% said hardly ever.

     

    The leading social media platforms where users get their news are Reddit, where 70% of users get news, 66% of Facebook users, and 59% of Twitter users.

     

    From 2013, all platforms have grown the percent of users who receive news from the sites, with Facebook experiencing the biggest increase.

    When looking at each sites' total reach, and the proportion of users who get news on each site, Facebook leads the way – Facebook reaches 67% of US adults, and 44% get their news on the site. Twitter only reaches 16% of adults, but 9% get news from the platform.

    Users of Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube users are more likely to get news by chance, while LinkedIn, Twitter, and more likely to be looking for news.

    Here is how the demographics break down for each social networking site.

    Social media users also consume news through other news platforms, with local television being the most popular overall, and print newspapers being the least popular alternative news source.

    * * *

    It's evident that social media is becoming an increasingly popular way for people to consume news, although recent revelations about Facebook's suppressing of news raises cause for concern for those scanning the site for newsflow. Also, as Facebook usage and reliance for news explodes, one should keep in mind another thing: Facebook is watching, and listening.

  • The Startling Truth About How Working Families Are Truly Faring In This Economy

    Submitted by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

    It is hard to live the American Dream when the deck is stacked against you.  Our politicians stood idly by as millions of good paying jobs were shipped overseas, our economic infrastructure was absolutely gutted and multitudes of small businesses were choked to death by miles of red tape.  Now, we are reaping the consequences.  In America today, nobody has a job in one out of every five families, and there are more than 100 million working age Americans that are currency not working.  And thanks to our transition to a “service economy”, many of those that are actually working are deeply struggling too.  According to the Social Security Administration, 51 percent of all American workers make less than $30,000 a year.  And the Federal Reserve says that 47 percent of all Americans could not pay an unexpected $400 emergency room bill without borrowing the money from somewhere or selling something.  That means that about half the country is flat broke, and things get even more precarious for working families with each passing day.

    Of course the plight of working families is not something that is new.  Back in the 1950s and 1960s, wages and salaries earned by workers accounted for around half of all gross domestic income.  But since 1970 there has been a precipitous decline, and during the Obama administration we hit an all-time low.  In other words, the share of the pie being enjoyed by working families just keeps getting smaller and smaller and smaller.

    Share Of Gross Domestic Income

    All over the country, median incomes have been falling for years.  This is putting an incredible amount of financial stress on working families, and we have seen poverty grow explosively in the United States during the last couple presidential administrations.  According to one study, median incomes have fallen in over 80 percent of the major metropolitan areas in this nation since the year 2000…

    A major new analysis of income in America published by Pew earlier this month found that more than 80% of the country’s 229 metropolitan areas have seen real (inflation-adjusted) incomes fall steadily since the start of this century. Some of the steepest declines in median incomes have been seen in cities hit by industrial decline – for example a 27% drop in Springfield, Ohio and 18% in the conurbation that includes Detroit. But, ominously, even fast expanding success stories have seen incomes falling.

     

    The area around Denver, Colorado, has seen its population grow by 600,000 since 1999, but its median income has fallen from $83,500 to less than $76,000. Similarly Raleigh, North Carolina, is a fast-growing city buoyed by a cluster of research universities and biotech firms; the population has shot up from 800,000 to 1.3 million this century. Yet its middle class has shrunk from 55% of the population to 50%, and median incomes have fallen by more than $11,000 to about $74,000.

    Once upon a time, the middle class was a solid majority in this country.

    In fact, 61 percent of all Americans were considered to be middle class back in 1971.

    But now, the middle class in the United States is becoming a minority for the first time ever

    “After more than four decades of serving as the nation’s economic majority, the American middle class is now matched in number by those in the economic tiers above and below it,” the Pew report said. “Since 1971, each decade has ended with a smaller share of adults living in middle-income households than at the beginning of the decade, and no single decade stands out as having triggered or hastened the decline in the middle.”

    One of the big things that is destroying the middle class is the death of entrepreneurship.  For decades, small business creation was one of the primary engines that helped fuel the growth of the middle class, but in recent years small business creation has fallen to depressingly low levels

    Fewer new businesses were created in the last five years in the US than any period since at least 1980, according to a new analysis (pdf) by the Economic Innovation Group (EIG), a bipartisan advocacy group founded by the Silicon Valley entrepreneur Sean Parker and others. Businesses that did form are also far more concentrated than ever before: just 20 counties accounted for half of the country’s total new businesses. All of them were in large metro areas.

     

    It’s hard to put into scale the collapse of new business formation. We have no precedent for that rapid and steep of a collapse,” said John Lettieri, co-author of the report and co-founder of EIG, in an interview. “It will have a ripple effect in the economy. You‘re going to feel that impact five, 10, and 15 years in the future.”

    Of course just about every other economic indicator shows the dramatic decline of the middle class as well.  As you can see from this set of charts from Zero Hedge, median family income, the labor force participation rate and the rate of homeownership are all way down over the last decade.  Meanwhile, the U.S. national debt, the number of Americans on food stamps and healthcare costs are way up.  Does that sound like a “healthy economy” to you?

    Obama Economy - Zero Hedge

    Unfortunately, this is about as good as things are going to get.  A major new economic downturn is already brewing, and layoff announcements at major firms are running 24 percent higher this year than they were last year.

    The America that most of us grew up in is dying, and what we have seen so far is just the tip of the iceberg. I believe that much, much worse is coming.  But our leaders just continue on with business as usual.  They keep doing the same things over and over again, but they keep expecting different results.

    What they are doing to “fix” things is not going to work, and that should be exceedingly apparent to everyone by now.

    We need to start valuing working families again, and that means encouraging the growth of small businesses and encouraging the creation of middle class jobs.

    Sadly, we have already entered the early stages of the next great economic crisis, and so things are going to get a whole lot worse for the working class before there is any chance of them getting better.

  • Who Has Donated The Most Money To Bernie Sanders: The Unemployed

    The grassroots support Bernie Sanders has amassed throughout his campaign to become the Democratic presidential nominee is undeniable. Sanders has been supported by small-dollar contributions throughout his campaign, and since donors who give $200 or less don’t have to have names publicized, little has been known about the donors. More than 1 million small-donor contributors gave nearly two-thirds of Sanders’ funding.

    However, since Sanders relies on a fundraising tool called ActBlue, all donors must be disclosed regardless of the size of contribution. This has allowed the LA Times to perform an analysis on the donors behind the man who has given (and continues to give) Hillary Clinton so much trouble, and the result is stunning.

    The study found that many donors resemble Emily Condit, 40 of Sylmar, who has contributed three times, $5 each. Condit, who has several physical disabilities, is among the largest single group of Sanders’ donors – those who don’t have a job. Out of the $209 million given to the senator’s campaign, about one out of every four dollars came from those not in the workforce, who include the unemployed or retired.

    For the last 15 years since Condit left a job at NASA, her ailments have kept her from working. She depends on Social Security and lives on a tight budget but has found money for Sanders because she was drawn to his populist message. “I know very well now what it’s like to be a have-not, both financially and physically, and to fall through the cracks of society. Bernie Sanders is running on a platform to lift up the have-nots and to
    improve the system of government we have, so that no one will ever be
    left behind
    .” Condit said.

    The study also found that Sanders received just 2% from Wall Street, which shouldn’t surprise anyone. Because Sanders’ backers tend to donate multiple times, the average donar gave a total of $96 – the typical donor gave three times, but some gave far more frequently.

    Not all were small however. Jeremy Abramowitz, a recent graduate from the College of William and Mary in Virginia, gave Sanders’ campaign more than $5,000 in more than 200 separate donations. Abramowitz said he started sending money after reading negative posts about Sanders on Facebook, and lost track of how much he was giving. “When somebody said something that annoyed me, I’d give an extra dollar. It just all added up.” – it’s unclear if Jeremy is living at home and can afford to donate due to not having to pay any rent.

    So in an interesting if not incredibly ironic turn of events, Sanders is financing his campaign primarily through the government – and we have now come full circle.

  • 'Dilbert' Creator Asks "What Exactly Is The Risk Of A Trump Presidency?"

    As posted by Scott Adams via Dilbert's blog,

    What exactly is the risk of a Trump presidency? Beats me. But let’s talk about it anyway.

    Your Abysmal Track Record

    For starters, ask yourself how well you predicted the performance of past presidents. Have your psychic powers been accurate?

    I’m not good at predicting the performance of presidents. I thought Reagan would be dangerous, but he presided over the end of the Cold War. And I thought George W. Bush would be unlikely to start a war, much less two of them.

    But it gets better. Even AFTER the presidency, can you tell who did the best job? I can’t. You think you can, but you can’t. And the simple reason for that is because there is no base case with which to compare a president. All we know is what did happen, not what might have happened if we took another path. You can’t compare a situation in the real world to your imaginary world in which something better happened. That is nonsense. And yet we do it. Watch me prove it right now.

    So, how did President Obama do on the job? Was he a good president?

    If you have an answer in your head – either yes or no – it proves you don’t know how to make decisions. No judgement can be made about Obama’s performance because there is nothing to which it can be compared. No one else in a parallel universe was president at the same time, doing different things and getting different results. 

    I’m not a fan of everything our president has done, but I feel as if historians will rank him as one of our best presidents. Definitely in the top 20%.

    Wait, what? Am I crazy?

    Many of you think Obama nearly destroyed civilization. You and I can’t both be right. But both of us can be irrational in trusting our opinions. We are literally comparing Obama’s actual performance to imagined alternatives that exist only in our minds. Maybe you think the imaginary president in your mind is way better than the real one, whereas I think the real one did well compared to my imaginary alternative. 

    That isn’t thinking. Science is pretty clear on that.

    And how about your ability to predict the future of your own relationships? Most relationships end badly, so we know that the majority of Americans are not good at predicting the future. Have all of your relationships worked out the way you expected? Mine haven’t. 

    I think you’ll agree that humans are terrible at predicting the future. But that’s not the problem. The problem is that we think we are not terrible at predicting the future. Our certainty in the face of overwhelming uncertainty is irrational.

    Do you think President Trump would be extra-dangerous to the world? If you have an opinion on that – either yes or no – you’re being irrational. 

    The FBI Profiler Approach

    When FBI profilers are trying to figure out who perpetrated a specific type of crime, they can often narrow it down to people who have done the same sort of thing in the past. Arsonists have played with matches in their youth. Serial killers have probably been cruel to animals. Abusers have probably abused people before. Pedophiles have often been victims themselves. Patterns of this sort can be predictive, at least when viewed by experts.

    Donald Trump has about five decades of track record in business that includes no violent acts whatsoever. Nor have we heard stories of any Trump temper tantrums in the business world that go beyond the scope of what any CEO does on a bad day. Somehow Trump built hundreds of business entities, amassed great wealth, and raised a great set of kids. And nowhere in the story is the part where he did something scary or dangerous. That sort of behavior doesn’t pop up suddenly when you’re a grandfather.

    The Scary Talk

    Trump does talk tough. He talks of expelling illegals from the country. He talks of waterboarding. He talks of bombing the shit out of ISIS. He talks about going after the families of terrorists.

    But Trump also openly talks about the value of hyperbole (also known as bullshit). He wrote about it in The Art of the Deal. Trump tells us – in the clearest possible language – that he always sets the table for negotiating by making a big opening offer. If Trump is consistent with decades of history – and with what he says about his approach to negotiating – then his more extreme statements are just psychology. That’s what an FBI profiler would tell you. People don’t suddenly change their basic mode of operation at age 69, especially when it is working.

    Chemical Cyborgs

    In my view, we are already in the Age of Cyborgs. You probably have a friend who has one kind of personality without drugs (legal or illegal) and a completely different personality when using drugs, including alcohol. Maybe the drugs are curing depression, or anxiety, or loneliness, or something. But people are different when they are on them. That’s the point of taking drugs.

    Trump doesn’t drink. He never has. He doesn’t take illegal drugs either. He’s the same guy at night that he is in the morning. He’s not a chemical cyborg with a personality that is driven by big pharma.

    Clinton, on the other hand, is part human, part pharmacological grab-bag. Her personality is at least partly determined by whatever cocktail of meds and wine are in her system at any given moment. In  other words, she is just like most adults. Our personalities are the product of the drugs in our system, for better or for worse.

    Do you make the same decisions when you are tired? Do you make the same decisions when you’re angry, depressed, or in pain? Probably not. So if meds are fixing those conditions, those meds are also controlling your decisions. And that introduces risk.

    Trump brings with him all the risks of being Trump, but he does seem to be the same person every day. Clinton brings with her all the risks of being Clinton, plus any extra risks from a glass of wine or doctor-prescribed meds. That risk could be nearly nothing. Or not. We have no way to know.

    Scaring Foreign Leaders

    I hear voters say they worry about Trump offending world leaders and triggering wars. But keep in mind that world leaders have been putting up with dangerous and shitty U.S. presidents for hundreds of years. It hasn’t been a problem yet.

    One of the things Trump has going for him is that he’s a well-known entity. People hate surprises. Any foreign leader would know exactly what they are getting with Trump. Like Reagan, a President Trump would talk tough – for effect – but he is likable in person, and he has a strong bias to avoid any problems that are bad for business. China would have no problem with any of that. Putin would have no problem with Trump either. They know what negotiating looks like.

    Do foreign leaders WANT a President Trump? Hell, no. Trump says he plans to negotiate better deals for America, which means worse deals for everyone else. Of course foreign leaders are going to tell us Trump is risky, scary, and anything else bad, just to stop him.

    I doubt any foreign leader is literally afraid of Trump. But they might want you to think they are afraid of him, so you won’t elect him. Foreign leaders are not idiots. To some extent, they are playing us.

    Racism

    What about all of Trump’s racism? An FBI profiler would assume a person’s pattern of racism would continue, maybe worsen.

    But Trump’s racism exists solely in the minds of his opponents. He has proposed no racist policies and he has no racist acts in his past.

    Trump opposes illegal immigration. But he loves legal Americans of every color and flavor. He says so often. That’s not racism. That’s more like the opposite.

    Trump did say Mexicans are rapists. But you’d have to be dumb to think he meant every single Mexican coming into the country is a rapist. Literally no one – ever – has believed all Mexicans are rapists. If you think Trump believes it – or wants us to believe it – you have abandoned any hold on reason. 

    But we agree that Trump says outrageous things, because doing so gets him elected, apparently.

    Religious Discrimination

    What about Trump’s idea to temporarily ban Muslim immigration until we figure out what the problem is? Isn’t that religious discrimination?

    Yes, it is. But it is the legal kind because it would only apply to non-citizens trying to enter the country. And keep in mind that Islam – as commonly practiced in Muslim countries around the world – is not compatible with the Constitution of the United States. That’s different from the situation with Presbyterian immigrants, for example, whose beliefs fold neatly into the current system.

    I don’t have an opinion on the best way to handle Muslim immigration because I don’t know how effectively we can screen people. But common sense says we should treat different risk classes in different ways. That’s the way we price car insurance, and it is the way we make all data-driven decisions. Ignoring risk is noble, but it isn’t always smart.

    Trump also suggested creating a government list of which residents of the country are Muslim. That’s some scary shit. Until…you realize the government already has that list. You know they do, right?

    And if they don’t, they can pull it together from existing Big Data any time they want. That risk is already baked into our current situation. The government knows what you are up to as well. They know your religion (with high probability), your spending habits, your porn preferences, and your health. Or at least they can know those things any time they want.

    The privacy ship already sailed.

    War Crimes

    Trump famously suggested we use torture to fight terrorism. Torture is not legal. And he suggested going after the families of terrorists. That’s a war crime too.

    Did he mean any of that?

    Trump is always operating on the dimension of emotion and persuasion. He wants you – and the terrorists – to know he’s the most bad-ass player running for president. That gives him an edge in getting elected and it gives him a psychological advantage against ISIS. If you’re a potential suicide bomber, you don’t worry about President Obama killing your family. But President Trump? You’d better think this through.

    Personally, I think it would be a terrible idea to torture terrorists (unless it works), and always a bad idea to target families. But saying you might do those things is effective both for winning a Republican primary and for keeping the enemy off balance.

    I think I’ve mentioned that Trump says things for effect. 

    Risk of Business as Usual

    Have you wondered why Republican Bill Kristol and others are looking for a third-party candidate who will guarantee a Clinton win over Trump? That’s probably because they know Clinton is in the pockets of the defense industry, and perhaps so are they.

    The defense industry needs America to fight wars. History suggests Clinton will be a normal president who starts wars when the defense industry tells her to do so. Trump is less likely to play that game because he doesn’t need their money. That makes Trump the lower risk of starting a war. He has no profit motive.

    When to Increase Risk

    As a general rule, you want to keep risks low when things are going well and nothing is broken. But when things are heading in the wrong direction, sometimes the only way to fix the situation is to introduce a reasonable, entrepreneurial risk.

    So, if you think the country is heading in the right direction, you probably don’t want someone like Trump as president. Trump is more likely to introduce change than Clinton. But if you think the government is broken, you might want some Trump-like entrepreneurial risk in your future.

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Today’s News 4th June 2016

  • Violent California Protesters Play Right Into Donald Trump's Hand

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    When it gets down to having to use violence, then you are playing the system’s game. The establishment will irritate you – pull your beard, flick your face – to make you fight. Because once they’ve got you violent, then they know how to handle you. The only thing they don’t know how to handle is non-violence and humor.

     

    – John Lennon

    Punches and eggs.

    Those are the two words that keep repeating over and over in the numerous articles I’ve read describing the mindless violence inflicted upon Trump supporters in San Jose, California last night. What’s worse, these protesters have undoubtably given Trump a huge boost in public perception.

    The violence exhibited by some Trump protesters yesterday evening was so barbaric and so obviously unnecessary and indecent, my first thought was that it had to be Trump operatives who arranged the whole thing. That’s how senselessly counterproductive their actions were.

    Ultimately, public perception matters a lot, which is why politicians spend virtually all of their energy managing it. Despite the twisted and corrupt nature of our political system, the fact of the matter remains that there will be an election in November 2016, and Donald Trump will be on the top of the Republican ticket. If your goal is to deal with this reality and defeat him, the last thing you want to do is make him and his supporters look good in front of the entire planet. Yet that’s exactly what these mindless imbeciles did. For the first time in this election cycle, they made Trump and his supporters look decent and upstanding, particularly compared to some of their opponents.

    This is of huge importance. Personally, I think Trump’s statement about Mexicans in the beginning of the campaign was disgusting and inexcusable. It’s one of the many reasons I cannot and will not vote for the man (for more see, May Registrations for the Libertarian Party Jump 20-Fold). That said, saying extremely offensive things and violently attacking American citizens attending a political rally are not in the same ballpark. They aren’t even in the same galaxy — and I’m not the only one who thinks that.

    As Americans sit down at their computer screens and smartphones over the weekend, they will respond with shock and horror to the images from San Jose. For some of them, their impressions of Trump and his supporters will improve materially. A certain percentage of these people will now be far more inclined to vote for Trump come November. If Trump protesters wanted to create an event that could make California competitive in the general election, they should be patting themselves on the back right now.

    To prove my point, how do you think most Americans are going to react when they read the following, say from the Washington Post:

    SAN JOSE, Calif. —Protests outside a Donald Trump rally in downtown San Jose spun out of control Thursday night when some demonstrators attacked the candidate’s supporters.

     

    Protesters jumped on cars, pelted Trump supporters with eggs and water balloons, snatched signs and stole “Make America Great” hats off supporters’ heads before burning the hats and snapping selfies with the charred remains.

    Screen Shot 2016-06-03 at 8.40.32 AM

    Several people were caught on camera punching Trump supporters. At least one attacker was arrested, according to CNN, although police did not release much information.

     

    Trump supporters were surrounded and, in several cases, attacked as they left the rally.

     

    In one incident captured on camera, a Trump supporter was struck hard over the side of the head as he was walking away from a group of protesters. The attack left him with blood streaming down his head and onto his shirt.

     

    “I was walking out with a Trump sign and he grabbed my Trump sign, saying I was like a racist and stuff,” the man told bystanders and local media. “Then he followed me, like, spit on me.”

     

    The Trump supporter said all he had done was chant the candidate’s name before trying to walk away.

    Here’s what he looked like after:

    Screen Shot 2016-06-03 at 8.45.49 AM

    Another Trump supporter was also bloodied after being attacked, his shirt torn almost completely off his body. Videos circulating on social media showed swirling, furious fights spilling from street corner to street corner, often with no police in sight.

    “Often with no police in sight.” Remember that later when you see some of the mayor’s comments.

    Marcus DiPaola, a freelance photographer following the Trump campaign, posted video of someone getting punched violently in the face.

     

    At times, protesters began to fight among themselves. In one instance, two female protesters pleaded for nonviolence while trying to protect a Trump supporter from an angry crowd. Despite their efforts, someone snatched the Trump supporter’s hat.

     

    A handful of the bright red “Make America Great Again” hats were set on fire by protesters, who then snapped photos of the scene or hung the charred hats from street signs.

     

    Perhaps the most jarring scene was that of a young female Trump supporter being attacked by a crowd of protesters.

     

    In multiple videos of the incident, the woman initially appeared to be happily posing in her Trump football jersey in front of the mostly male protesters, some of whom can be heard whistling and shouting at her.

     

    Then an anonymous arm rises over the crowd and tosses an egg at the woman, striking her in the head and eliciting howls and laughter from the crowd.

     

    A second later, a red water balloon bursts against the woman’s arm.

     

    Suddenly, another projectile strikes her hard in the face. Eventually, someone comes to help her and, after she indicates that she is having trouble seeing, she is ushered back inside the convention center.

    This is what the woman looked when all was said and done.

    Screen Shot 2016-06-03 at 8.47.33 AM

    Or how do you think the following will play to the American public, via NBC Bay Area:

    Donald Trump supporters leaving the presumptive GOP nominee’s rally in San Jose on Thursday were pounced by protesters, some of whom threw punches and eggs.

     

    The protesters chased and taunted Trump’s supporters outside the San Jose Convention Center. They surrounded one woman and threw eggs and bottles at her.

     

    “It was unbelievable,” said Steve Tong, a Cupertino resident who attended the Trump rally.

     

    Tong said after the rally, he was walking toward a nearby parking structure and saw protesters surrounding and taunting an elderly couple.

     

    “I’ve never seen anything like that in America before,” Tong said.

    Tong also said he saw protesters smash car windows inside the parking structure.

    Now listen to the incredibly irresponsible statement made by San Jose mayor, Sam Liccardo.

    The mayor, a Democrat and Hillary Clinton supporter, criticized Trump for coming to cities and igniting problems that local police departments had to deal with.

     

    “At some point Donald Trump needs to take responsibility for the irresponsible behavior of his campaign,” Liccardo said.

    Just in case you still don’t think these protesters are playing right into Donald Trump’s little hands, see the following from USA Today:

    Inside the rally, Trump was heckled by a protester in the crowd. Trump told the crowd not to worry about it.

     

    “Let him enjoy himself…we need our protesters,” he added. “We’ve got to be nice.”

     

    This message runs contrary to what Trump has said at previous rallies, including one in November when attendees kicked a Black Lives Matter activist (Trump said, “Maybe he should have been roughed up.”)

     

    This time, Trump told the crowd, “I’ve learned. Don’t hurt him.”

    Well done morons, you just achieved the impossible. You gave Donald Trump and his supporters the moral high ground.

    In case you missed them., here are three of the more disturbing videos from the protests.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    In conclusion, as Reason.com's Ed Krayewski so eloquently explained,

    In this age of perpetual grievances, showing up to protest at the Trump rally has become a chic social signaling thing to do. Acting out at Trump rallies, including by threatening, harassing, and even physically assaulting Trump supporters, is a natural continuation of the culture of safe spaces and triggering speech being nurtured in college campuses around the country. It reveals the total flim-flam that academics and professional left-wing protesters have too often wrapped up in high-minded ideas about fighting the power structures or whatever else.

     

    If Donald Trump won, he could end up being a fascist. But the imperial presidency that makes that possible has been a decades-long project, made possible by both mainstream parties and their supporters, who worry about the centralization of power in the presidency and the abuses government can commit right up until the point when the president and the government start doing things of which they approve.

     

    Attacking Trump's supporters because of the danger Trump poses as an imperial president is an exercise in blame-shifting. Those so concerned about what Trump might do to the country that they feel called to stalk and attack Trump supporters should take a long look in the mirror instead. It'll have the added benefit of not building more support for Trump, as violence against his supporters certainly will.

    What many came to realize last night was that Trump's real world supporters aren't the same as the online trolls that have come to represent him in an Internet-driven election cycle.

  • Dangerous Situation: Venezuelan National Guard Assault Members Of The Press During Protests

    During Thursday's protest over food in Caracas, chaos erupted after supermarket shoppers were told that regulated goods they had expected to be available would not be up for sale. In a sign of just how bad things have gotten, at least 19 journalists were attacked while trying to cover the chaotic events Bloomberg reports.

    Espacio Publico, a non-government organization that monitors freedom of expression said that the assaults include robberies by members of the National Guard and armed civilians.

    "We categorically reject the criminalization that the press is being subject to as they are held hostage, threatened and repeatedly intimidated by armed groups while they cover the street" the organization said in a separate statement.

    Venezuela's opposition is pushing for a recall referendum on Maduro's rule to be held this year, and after the country's election board known as CNE canceled a scheduled meeting to discuss the status of the request, the 2 million Venezuelans who had signed the petition calling for the recall were urged to march in order to "ratify" their signatures.

    Jesus "Chuo" Torrealba, the executive secretary of Venezuela's opposition alliance known as MUD said "we collected over 2 million signatures, and the CNE hasn't yet said how the process will go. We already have five times the signatures needed to start the process."

    "There were some very rough hours today in downtown Caracas. Venezuela is a time bomb of social and economic discontent" he added.

    Time bomb of social and economic discontent is an understatement…

  • "America's Greatest Threat Is Its Crazed 'Leadership' And Its Brainwashed Population"

    Submitted by Dmitry Orlov, The Saker, Victor Katsap and Evgenia Gurevich via PaulCraigRoberts.org,

    Insouciant Americans do not even know what they should be worried about…

    A Russian Warning

    June 02, 2016 “Information Clearing House” – “ClubOrlov” – We, the undersigned, are Russians living and working in the USA. We have been watching with increasing anxiety as the current US and NATO policies have set us on an extremely dangerous collision course with the Russian Federation, as well as with China. Many respected, patriotic Americans, such as Paul Craig Roberts, Stephen Cohen, Philip Giraldi, Ray McGovern and many others have been issuing warnings of a looming Third World War. But their voices have been all but lost among the din of a mass media that is full of deceptive and inaccurate stories that characterize the Russian economy as being in shambles and the Russian military as weak—all based on no evidence. But we-—knowing both Russian history and the current state of Russian society and the Russian military–cannot swallow these lies. We now feel that it is our duty, as Russians living in the US, to warn the American people that they are being lied to, and to tell them the truth. And the truth is simply this:

    If there is going to be a war with Russia, then the United States will most certainly be destroyed, and most of us will end up dead.

    Let us take a step back and put what is happening in a historical context. Russia has suffered a great deal at the hands of foreign invaders, losing 22 million people in World War II. Most of the dead were civilians, because the country was invaded, and the Russians have vowed to never let such a disaster happen again. Each time Russia had been invaded, she emerged victorious. In 1812 Nepoleon invaded Russia; in 1814 Russian cavalry rode into Paris. On June 22, 1941, Hitler’s Luftwaffe bombed Kiev; On May 8, 1945, Soviet troops rolled into Berlin.

    But times have changed since then. If Hitler were to attack Russia today, he would be dead 20 to 30 minutes later, his bunker reduced to glowing rubble by a strike from a Kalibr supersonic cruise missile launched from a small Russian navy ship somewhere in the Baltic Sea. The operational abilities of the new Russian military have been most persuasively demonstrated during the recent action against ISIS, Al Nusra and other foreign-funded terrorist groups operating in Syria. A long time ago Russia had to respond to provocations by fighting land battles on her own territory, then launching a counter-invasion; but this is no longer necessary. Russia’s new weapons make retaliation instant, undetectable, unstoppable and perfectly lethal.

    Thus, if tomorrow a war were to break out between the US and Russia, it is guaranteed that the US would be obliterated. At a minimum, there would no longer be an electric grid, no internet, no oil and gas pipelines, no interstate highway system, no air transportation or GPS-based navigation. Financial centers would lie in ruins. Government at every level would cease to function. US armed forces, stationed all around the globe, would no longer be resupplied. At a maximum, the entire landmass of the US would be covered by a layer of radioactive ash. We tell you this not to be alarmist, but because, based on everything we know, we are ourselves alarmed. If attacked, Russia will not back down; she will retaliate, and she will utterly annihilate the United States.

    The US leadership has done everything it could to push the situation to the brink of disaster. First, its anti-Russian policies have convinced the Russian leadership that making concessions or negotiating with the West is futile. It has become apparent that the West will always support any individual, movement or government that is anti-Russian, be it tax-cheating Russian oligarchs, convicted Ukrainian war criminals, Saudi-supported Wahhabi terrorists in Chechnya or cathedral-desecrating punks in Moscow. Now that NATO, in violation of its previous promises, has expanded right up to the Russian border, with US forces deployed in the Baltic states, within artillery range of St. Petersburg, Russia’s second-largest city, the Russians have nowhere left to retreat. They will not attack; nor will they back down or surrender. The Russian leadership enjoys over 80% of popular support; the remaining 20% seems to feel that it is being too soft in opposing Western encroachment. But Russia will retaliate, and a provocation or a simple mistake could trigger a sequence of events that will end with millions of Americans dead and the US in ruins.

    Unlike many Americans, who see war as an exciting, victorious foreign adventure, the Russians hate and fear war. But they are also ready for it, and they have been preparing for war for several years now. Their preparations have been most effective. Unlike the US, which squanders untold billions on dubious overpriced arms programs such as the F-35 joint task fighter, the Russians are extremely stingy with their defense rubles, getting as much as 10 times the bang for the buck compared to the bloated US defense industry. While it is true that the Russian economy has suffered from low energy prices, it is far from being in shambles, and a return to growth is expected as early as next year. Senator John McCain once called Russia “A gas station masquerading as a country.” Well, he lied. Yes, Russia is the world’s largest oil producer and second-largest oil exporter, but it is also world’s largest exporter of grain and nuclear power technology. It is as advanced and sophisticated a society as the United States. Russia’s armed forces, both conventional and nuclear, are now ready to fight, and they are more than a match for the US and NATO, especially if a war erupts anywhere near the Russian border.

    But such a fight would be suicidal for all sides. We strongly believe that a conventional war in Europe runs a strong chance of turning nuclear very rapidly, and that any US/NATO nuclear strike on Russian forces or territory will automatically trigger a retaliatory Russian nuclear strike on the continental US. Contrary to irresponsible statements made by some American propagandists, American antiballistic missile systems are incapable of shielding the American people from a Russian nuclear strike. Russia has the means to strike at targets in the USA with long-range nuclear as well as conventional weapons.

    The sole reason why the USA and Russia have found themselves on a collision course, instead of defusing tensions and cooperating on a wide range of international problems, is the stubborn refusal by the US leadership to accept Russia as an equal partner: Washington is dead set on being the “world leader” and the “indispensable nation,” even as its influence steadily dwindles in the wake of a string of foreign policy and military disasters such as Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Yemen and the Ukraine. Continued American global leadership is something that neither Russia, nor China, nor most of the other countries are willing to accept. This gradual but apparent loss of power and influence has caused the US leadership to become hysterical; and it is but a small step from hysterical to suicidal. America’s political leaders need to be placed under suicide watch.

    First and foremost, we are appealing to the commanders of the US Armed Forces to follow the example of Admiral William Fallon, who, when asked about a war with Iran, reportedly replied “not on my watch.” We know that you are not suicidal, and that you do not wish to die for the sake of out-of-touch imperial hubris. If possible, please tell your staff, colleagues and, especially, your civilian superiors that a war with Russia will not happen on your watch. At the very least, take that pledge yourselves, and, should the day ever come when the suicidal order is issued, refuse to execute it on the grounds that it is criminal. Remember that according to the Nuremberg Tribunal “To initiate a war of aggression… is not only an international crime; it is the supreme international crime differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole.” Since Nuremberg, “I was just following orders” is no longer a valid defense; please don’t be war criminals.

    We also appeal to the American people to take peaceful but forceful action to oppose any politician or party that engages in irresponsible, provocative Russia-baiting, and that condones and supports a policy of needless confrontation with a nuclear superpower that is capable of destroying America in about an hour. Speak up, break through the barrier of mass media propaganda, and make your fellow Americans aware of the immense danger of a confrontation between Russia and the US.

    There is no objective reason why US and Russia should consider each other adversaries. The current confrontation is entirely the result of the extremist views of the neoconservative cult, whose members were allowed to infiltrate the US Federal government under President Bill Clinton, and who consider any country that refuses to obey their dictates as an enemy to be crushed. Thanks to their tireless efforts, over a million innocent people have already died in the former Yugoslavia, in Afghanistan, in Iraq, Libya, Syria, Pakistan, the Ukraine, Yemen, Somalia and in many other countries—all because of their maniacal insistence that the USA must be a world empire, not a just a regular, normal country, and that every national leader must either bow down before them, or be overthrown. In Russia, this irresistible force has finally encountered an immovable object. They must be forced to back down before they destroy us all.

    We are absolutely and categorically certain that Russia will never attack the US, nor any EU member state, that Russia is not at all interested in recreating the USSR, and that there is no “Russian threat” or “Russian aggression.” Much of Russia’s recent economic success has a lot to do with the shedding of former Soviet dependencies, allowing her to pursue a “Russia first” policy. But we are just as certain that if Russia is attacked, or even threatened with attack, she will not back down, and that the Russian leadership will not “blink.” With great sadness and a heavy heart they will do their sworn duty and unleash a nuclear barrage from which the United States will never recover. Even if the entire Russian leadership is killed in a first strike, the so-called “Dead Hand” (the “Perimetr” system) will automatically launch enough nukes to wipe the USA off the political map. We feel that it is our duty to do all we can to prevent such a catastrophe.

  • Michelle Obama Launches First Attack At Donald Trump

    One day after president Obama took a pot shot at Donald Trump in what appeared to be an escalation in campaigning against the New York billionaire on Hillary’s behalf during a Wednesday PBS town hall, Trump promptly shot back, saying that “this is a president who doesn’t have a clue,” during his rally in Sacramento.  “He’s going to start campaigning. Well, if he campaigns, that means I’m allowed to hit him just like I hit Bill Clinton, I guess right… If he doesn’t, I don’t care. But if he campaigns, and I think he wants to, because he wants to keep this terrible agenda going where everybody is ripping us, where the world is ripping us off.”

    And while for now Barack has not responded in what would surely escalate to the pinnacle of prime-time TV entertaiment as Trump unleashes on the president and vice versa, the latest shot against Trump came from none other than the president’s wife, Michelle. The first lady ripped into Donald Trump in what she said would be her final commencement address as first lady, at New York’s City College where she was granted an honorary doctorate, criticizing the presumptive GOP presidential nominee for his name-calling and what she described as a fear of outsiders that is un-American. 

    “Here in America, we don’t give into our fears. We don’t build up walls to keep people out, because we know that our greatness has always depended on contributions from people who were born elsewhere but sought out this country and made it their home,” the first lady said, without mentioning Trump by name, in an address at The City College of New York. It was unclear if Michelle was referring to people such as these:

    Michelle continued: “some folks out there today seem to have a very different perspective,” Michelle Obama continued. “They seem to view our diversity as a threat to be contained rather than as a resource to be tapped. They tell us to be afraid of those who are different, to be suspicious of those with whom we disagree.”

    Maybe there is a reason for that? In any case, here is one untapped resource seen during last night’s anti-Trump rioting in San Jose:

    Oblivious to the reality around here, Michelle continued her liberal sermon: “They act as if name-calling is an acceptable substitute for thoughtful debate, as if anger and intolerance should be our default state, rather than the optimism and openness that have always been the engine of our progress,” she said.

    Ironically, the angry and intolerant default state was exhibited by those who accuse Trump of stirring up just those feelings.

    “I have seen what happens when ideas like these take hold. I have seen how leaders who rule by intimidation, leaders who demonize and dehumanize entire groups of people, often do so because they have nothing else to offer,” she said. “That is not who we are.”

    And yet, this is precisely “who we were” last night in San Jose.

    As The Hill reports, these comments marked a rare entry into 2016 politics by the first lady who raised her voice during the latter remarks as she spoke over applause from the crowd. They were also notable coming one day after Hillary Clinton launched a full-out assault on Trump in a speech that had been billed as a foreign policy address. So far, White House attacks on Trump have been relatively low-key, in part because of the Democratic primary contest between Clinton and Bernie Sanders.

    Michelle’s remarks were not limited to Trump. She had the following parting words for thr class of 2016, whom she told that they’re “living, breathing proof that the American Dream endures in our time,” and linked their story to her family’s. “It’s the story that I witness every day, when I wake up in a house that was built by slaves. Two beautiful black young women head off to school, waving goodbye to their father, the president of the United States, the son of a man of Kenya who came here to America for the same reasons as many of you: to get an education and improve his prospects in life.” “So graduates, while I think it’s fair to say that our founding fathers never could have imagined this day, all of you are very much the fruits of their vision,” she continued.

    It was unclear as of this writing if the founding fathers’ vision was a generation of student debt slaves buried under $1.3 trillion in debt, desperate to find a minimum wage waiter and bartender job before robots make even that last “career” option obsolete.

  • Get To College, Get A Job, Get Poorer: Students Are Worse Off After Attending For-Profit Colleges

    Go to college, study hard, get a good paying job – that's the mantra heard by most students across America as they wind down their high school careers.

    Intuitively taking out loans just to go to college because everyone says so isn't a good idea, and a new study by the NBER finds that in fact, students who left for-profit schools during the 2006-2008 timeframe were worse off after attending. A key factor, as the WSJ reports, is that most of these students never earned a degree, they dropped out. Making matters worse, and certainly contributing to the fact that over 40% of student borrowers don't make payments, is the fact that these students borrowed to attend the colleges.

    From the WSJ

    The working paper, published this week by the National Bureau of Economic Research, tracks 1.4 million students who left a for-profit school from 2006 through 2008. Because students at these schools tend to be older than recent high-school graduates, they’ve spent time in the workforce. The researchers used Education Department and Internal Revenue Service data to track their earnings before and after they left school.

     

    The result: Students on average were worse off after attending for-profit schools. Undergraduates were less likely to be employed, and earned smaller paychecks–about $600 to $700 per year less–after leaving school compared to their lives before. Those who enrolled in certificate programs made roughly $920 less per year in the six years after school compared to before they enrolled.

     

    The key factor is that most of these students never earned a degree–they dropped out early. Excluding them, the minority of students who earned degrees saw an earnings bump after graduating.

     

    “Certificate, associate’s, and bachelor’s degree students generally experience declines in earnings in the 5 to 6 years after attendance relative to their own earnings in the years before attendance,” write co-authors Stephanie Riegg Cellini of George Washington University and Nicholas Turner of the U.S. Treasury Department.

     

    The picture is even worse when considering most students borrowed to attend the colleges. Nearly 9 out of 10 for-profit school students took on student debt; those in associate’s programs borrowed an average $8,000 and those in bachelor’s programs, $13,000.

    And now we get to the main reason that more millennialls are living at home than any other time since the Great Depression:

    “Examining the distribution of average annual earnings effects and average annual debt payments reveals that the vast majority of for-profit students experience both higher debt and lower earnings after attendance, relative to the years before attendance,” the authors write.

    The study is being called into question by groups such as The Association of Private Sector Colleges and Universities, saying that the students that were tracked walked right into the Great Recession.

    While that is true, the fact is that we're now in a "new normal", which is simply to say that lower paying jobs are being created and better paying jobs are disappearing, along with the overall opportunity to find employmentthe results of the study are indeed indicative of what's going on in today's economy.

  • 13 Of 23 Co-Ops Created Under Obamacare Have Failed

    Submitted by Ali Meyer via FreeBeacon.com,

    Ohio’s InHealth Mutual co-op announced last week that it is going out of business, making it the 13th co-op to fail out of the 23 that were created under Obamacare.

    The Ohio Department of Insurance asked to liquidate the company, saying that the company was in a “hazardous financial condition.” The co-op served nearly 22,000 consumers who now have 60 days to find another policy offered by another company on the federal exchange.

    “Our examination of the company’s financials made it clear that the company’s losses would prevent it from paying future claims should its operations continue,” said Ohio Director of Insurance Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor. “Under Ohio law, we acted with certainty to protect the consumers.”

    The company recorded an underwriting loss of $80 million in 2015 despite the $129 million in taxpayer-backed loans granted to the co-op by the federal government. InHealth Mutual was also placed under “enhanced oversight,” one of three tools the Department of Health and Human Services has to monitor co-ops in financial distress. When a co-op is placed under enhanced oversight, it means the company is consistently underperforming and allows the department to give detailed and more frequent reviews of the loan recipient’s operations and financial status.

    According to Columbus Business First, medical claims were coming in at a rate of $3 million per week and the company would have had to raise premiums by 60 percent in 2017 to keep up. If InHealth Mutual were to stay in business through the end of 2016, projections show that the company would have posted losses of $20 million.

    Ohio’s failed co-op is added to the list of 12 co-ops that have already failed in Arizona, Michigan, Utah, Kentucky, New York, Nevada, Louisiana, Oregon, Colorado, Tennessee, South Carolina, and a co-op that served both Iowa and Nebraska.

    Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services chief operating officer Mandy Cohen told lawmakers in February that eight of the 11 remaining Obamacare co-ops in operation were selected for “corrective action plans” and “enhanced oversight.” She did not disclose which co-ops were placed on these plans.

    A professor who specializes in economics and health insurance told lawmakers in March that closures of the remaining co-ops seem likely.

    “The future of the 11 co-ops still providing coverage in 2016 is uncertain, but future closures seem likely,” said Dr. Scott Harrington. “The 10 co-ops still operating with June 30 financials reported a cumulative loss of $202.3 million.”

     

    “Very little, if any, of the $1.24 billion in federal start-up and solvency loans to establish those co-ops will be repaid, and at least several will be unable to meet all of their obligations to policyholders and health care providers,” he said.

    The Department of Health and Human Services did not respond to requests for comment by press time.

    *  *  *

    Mission Accomplished?

  • Relating To The Struggle: Here Is How Much Federal Reserve Bank Presidents Made In 2015

    As the economy struggles and wage growth stagnates, everyone can rest easy knowing that the Federal Reserve bank presidents are getting paid quite nicely for all of their efforts.

    While wages grew 2.6% (at best) In 2015, Fed presidents saw a 4% average salary increase. And before anyone says that the presidents took one for the team, taking a pay freeze from 2011-2013, it was made up for in 2014 when a 6.6% increase was awarded.

    New York's William Dudley tops the list in 2015, pulling in a cool $466,500, followed by San Francisco's John Williams who made $422,900. The lowest paid Fed president was St. Louis's James Bullard, who pulled down a meager $339,700.

    Here is the complete list from 2015

    This chart shows the pay increases from 2014 to 2015 – San Francisco's John Williams saw the largest increase of about 12%

    The Fed Board reviews reserve bank officer salaries annually, and each bank has compensation caps, with the highest set at $469,500 for Boston, New York and San Francisco. Presidents receive pay increases each January and got a special "adjustment" in 2015 as the Fed transitioned from its previous policy Bloomberg reports.

    For those that struggle to make ends meet every single day in this "recovery" that is producing minimum wage jobs, just know that those at the Federal Reserve are working hard each and every day to earn their paycheck, and to create a better future for banks the average American.

  • "What If?"

    Via ConvergEx's Nick Colas,

    Today we offer up five market counterfactuals – “What ifs” – to both illustrate why large cap U.S. equities just closed near their highest levels of 2016 and consider the conventional wisdom about whether the current rally is sustainable. 

     

    Our home base: where asset prices and other trends started the year. 

     

    For example, global interest rates began 2016 at much higher levels: the U.S. 10 year at 2.24% (now 1.80%), German Bunds at 0.64% (now 0.11%) and Japanese government bonds at 0.27% (now -0.28%).  Where would U.S. equities be if global yields were unchanged this year?  (Spoiler alert: lower.) Or consider crude oil prices, up from $37/barrel to $49/barrel, lifting large cap energy stocks by 11% and responsible for 25% of the S&P 500’s gains YTD.  Then there is the recent worry over global smartphone sales and what that means for mega-cap Apple (still 3% of the S&P 500), which has clipped market returns by 0.21% (7% of total).  The dollar – down 3% in 2016 – is another item on the “what if” list, but the elephant in the room is “What if Donald Trump were not the Republican nominee?” Markets seem to have ignored him for now, but can that continue into the general election season?

    What if President John Kennedy had rolled out of Dealey Plaza unharmed?  Would he have avoided a larger military entanglement in Vietnam?  Or more quickly embraced the civil rights movement than his successor?  Would it have been John Jr running for President in 2008, or now?  And would Marilyn Monroe ever have become first lady, as she reportedly told Jackie was her goal?

    The term for that kind of scenario analysis is “Counterfactual thinking” – considering possible alternative events to those that actually occurred.  What if you had majored in Classics instead of Business, or married someone besides your current spouse?  How would your life be different?  Would you be happier? Poorer, but happier? (Yes, that’s a thing.)

    Today we’ll unpack the current U.S. market through the lens of 5 counterfactuals, all anchored in a prior reality: where the world was 155 days ago, at the end of 2015. Our goal is to highlight what has taken the S&P 500 to its highest point in 2016 and assess the sustainability of current valuations and market dynamics.

    #1: What if global interest rates were the same as 12/31/2016?

    Since the start of the year, global long term interest rates have fallen dramatically:

    ·       US 10 year Treasuries went from a 2.24% yield to 1.80% today.

    ·       German 10 year Bunds yield just 11 basis points now, down from 64% bp on New Year’s.

    ·       Japanese 10 year government bonds now sport a negative 11 basis point yield, down from 27 basis points at the start of 2016.

    The reasons for these declines are largely due to punk economic growth in Europe and Japan combined with central bank bond buying in those regions.  This has pulled U.S. rates lower in their wake, even though domestic economic growth is grinding modestly higher.  Lower rates make equities look more attractive (at 2.1% the S&P 500 yields more than a 10 year Treasury) and, voila, you have a rally in U.S. stocks.

    Our Answer: U.S. Equities would likely be down on the year if interest rates were unchanged.  The tipping point here relates to economic and corporate earnings growth balanced against nominal interest rates.  The central narrative surrounding capital markets is that global growth is very slow for a variety of fundamental reasons.  Therefore if global yields were unchanged even with current central bank bond buying, it would be due to an increasing fear of inflation.  Good for policymakers and their goals, but likely bad for stocks.

    #2 – What if crude oil prices were unchanged in 2016?

    The year began with spot West Texas Intermediate trading at $37/barrel and now trades for $49/barrel, up 32% YTD.  The move higher has both lifted large cap energy stocks by 10.8% and reassured capital markets that we are not at the brink of global recession.  Many investors look at oil prices as the blood pressure reading of the world economy – you don’t want it too high (inflationary hypertension) or too low (deflationary coma).

    Our Answer: higher oil prices have been very helpful in reestablishing investor confidence in everything from U.S. economic growth (we are still by far the largest oil consumer country in the world) to Chinese economic expansion (they are #2) to the relative stability of many oil-producing countries.  The most easily quantifiable benefit: at 7% of the S&P 500, the energy sector’s 10.8% YTD rally means that oil’s rise is responsible for some 25% of the entire rally this year in large cap U.S. stocks.

    #3 – What if the dollar hadn’t weakened by 3% this year, but was instead unchanged?

    Based on the DXY Dollar Index, the U.S. greenback has been on a bit of a wild ride this year, starting at 98.75, dropping to 92, and then bouncing to a close today of 95.6.  Put another way – the dollar has been almost as volatile as stocks.  At its current level, it suits U.S. monetary policymakers to a “T” – just weak enough to help the earnings of large multinational companies (who might expand and hire due to better earnings) but strong enough of late to confirm that the Fed’s message of a potential rate increase is getting through.

    Our Answer: this one might not matter much to the current level of U.S. equities.  The net change year-to-date, just 3%, still leaves the dollar below where it has traded for much of the time since early 2015. Any dramatic strengthening would likely hurt equities, unless it came with a healthy dose economic growth.

    #4 – What if tech investors still thought smartphones were a global growth category?

    Apple may be just one company, but it is still has the largest single weighting in the S&P 500, at 2.97%.  Microsoft holds the #2 spot, at 2.28% and the dual classes of Alphabet combine to 2.39%. That means that Apple’s key market – global smartphones – is important to the equity market as whole.

    Our Answer: As with the dollar, Apple’s move (down 7% for the year) doesn’t overly change general market returns.  If Apple were flat on the year, the S&P would only be 0.21% higher.

    #5 – What if Donald Trump were not the Republican nominee for President?

    I think if you had asked market participants a year ago “Where would you guess the S&P 500 was trading if I told you that in one year’s time Donald Trump were the Republican Party candidate for President”, the answers would have ranged from 1,000 to 1,500.  Surely that kind of unexpected turn of events must have tied to a market meltdown, large geopolitical shock, or both.  And yet here we are.  The only way to square the circle is to assume that investors think the chance of a Donald Trump presidency is essentially zero, because here we are at 2016 highs.

    Our Answer: Stocks would likely be exactly where they are now if Mr. Trump were not the nominee.  The more important observation is actually “Why are capital markets ignoring the social message that his success (and to a similar degree Senator Sanders’ rise) seems to be delivering to Wall Street’s front door?”  Yes, the Electoral College and demographic decks seem stacked against Donald Trump, but that doesn’t negate the reason he got as far as he did.  Remember when Jeb Bush was the seeming favorite?  It wasn’t that long ago.

    Our bottom line here is that two of our counterfactuals neatly illuminate why U.S. stocks are working: lower interest rates and stable-to-rising oil prices.  The former underpins market valuations, the latter sends soothing signals about global economic growth and supports hopes for an earnings rebound in the energy sector.  As for when – or even if – markets get around to pondering what a Trump campaign signals about broader social issues, I doubt we’ll need counterfactuals to illuminate those messages once they come along.

  • "We're Hungry And Tired" – Protesters In Venezuela March Toward Presidential Palace Demanding Food

    Last month we showed just how severe the collapse in Venezuela had become, as starving Venezuelans took to looting supermarkets and other food dispensaries in search of whatever food could be found.

    Despite having the world's biggest oil reserves, Venezuelans are suffering from severe shortages of food and electricity, on top of inflation that makes it difficult to buy anything to begin with. Angry citizens have had enough, and again took to the streets yesterday to march on the presidential palace, Chanting "No more talk. We want food!".  Once protesters were within about a half dozen blocks of the palace, police in riot gear blocked the road and began firing tear gas.

    A protester named Jose Lopez said he and several others were neither government supporters nor opposition members, they just wanted food: "We have needs. We all need to eat" Lopez told journalists. Another protester said "I've been here since 8 in the morning. There's no more food in the shops and supermarkets. We're hungry and tired."

    As citizens literally starve, Maduro blames the fall in global oil prices and an "economic war" by his foes seeking a coup for the issues his country is facing. "Every day, they bring out violent groups seeking violence in the streets. And every day, the people reject them and expel them." Miguel Perez, the government's top economic official, said "we know this month has been really critical. It's been the month with lowest supply of products. That's why families are anxious. We guarantee things will improve in the next few weeks."

    Unfortunately, the crisis worsens every day in Venezuela, and people aren't going to wait weeks before they can get enough to feed their families. With the decision whether or not to hold a recall referendum to oust Maduro officially put on hold, the scene is set for the crisis to become even more severe.

    * * *

    More From Caracas

    Watch the latest video at video.foxnews.com

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Today’s News 3rd June 2016

  • Delayed Consequences: Germany Angers Turkey With Genocide Vote

    Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    A year ago, Germany’s Green Party wanted to hold a vote on responsibility for the Ottoman massacres, a systematic expulsion and annihilation of over 1 million ethnic Armenians in 1915.

    Germany delayed the vote, not wanting to upset Turkey… until yesterday, when Germany held the vote, upsetting Turkey much more.

    After a near-unanimous vote, Turkey recalled its ambassador to Germany calling the vote, “null and void”.

    Turkish Protest in Berlin

    Protest in Berlin

     

    Germany Angers Turkey with Genocide Vote

    Please consider Germany Angers Turkey with Genocide Vote.

    Germany’s parliament condemned the Ottoman massacres of ethnic Armenians as genocide on Thursday in a vote that could damage ties with Turkey and complicate handling of Europe’s migrant crisis.

     

    MPs voted almost unanimously for the motion despite the reservations of the government which battled for months for a delay for fear of the reaction of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, who is often criticised for authoritarianism.

     

    Ankara immediately recalled its ambassador for consultations in response to what the Turkish government described as a “null and void” vote.

     

    Mevlut Cavusoglu, foreign minister, said on Twitter: “The way to close dark pages in [Germany’s] own history is not to defame the history of other countries with irresponsible and baseless parliament decisions.”

     

    Mr Erdogan warned this week that passing the resolution would harm “all diplomatic, economic, trade, political, military and Nato relations”. He reacted to the vote by warning of a “serious impact on bilateral relations”, adding that Turkey would consider further actions soon.

     

    Ahead of the vote, Binali Yildirim, Turkey’s prime minister, described the debate as a “test of friendship”. The dispute also comes in the wake of a fragile EU-Turkey deal championed by Ms Merkel that has so far halted refugee flows across the Aegean.

     

    That pact could collapse because Mr Erdogan’s goal of visa-free travel for 80m Turks is mired in EU politics and unlikely to be delivered before October.

     

    The diplomatic arguments have resounded around Germany, prompting pro-Ankara demonstrations from the large ethnic Turkish community, and even death threats to MPs.

     

    More than 20 countries, including France and Russia, as well as Pope Francis, recognize the 1915 killings as genocide.

     

    The US has not, partly out of concern at alienating Turkey, a Nato ally and key Middle East partner.

    Lie of the Day

    German chancellor Angela Merkel immediately sought to limit the damage, saying ties with Turkey were “broad and strong”.

    As proof of the “strength” of the relationship, Turkey pulled its ambassador and Erdogan is “considering actions”.

    The “test of friendship” clearly failed.

    Will Turkey cancel its refugee agreement with the EU?

    If so, that would be a positive outcome for Europe, albeit one that would cause a lot of short term pain.

    The benefit is the EU would have to come up with a real solution to the refugee mess rather than making a bargain with the devil.

  • Trump Supporters "Terrorized" In Massive San Jose Street Brawl As Police "Lose Control"

    Shocking scenes are occuring on the streets of San Jose as anti-Trump supporters are chased, punched, kicked, and, as ABC News' Tom Llamas reports "terrorized" as the local police "appears to have lost control." Mobs of protestors, many carrying mexican flags, took over the streets ahead of a Trump rally branding tire irons and burning American flags.

    Full video of the chaotic situation…

     

     

    Social media is awash with videos of the events…

     

    And just general rioting…

    Anti-Trump rioters even burned American flags…

    No this is not the streets of Tehran… this is San Jose – the best city in America to get a job!!

  • Just How Shady is Hillary Clinton? This Shady…

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    The American people are sick and tired of hearing about your damn emails.

     

    – Bernie Sanders, during the October 13, 2015 Democratic debate

    Boy was Bernie Sanders wrong about that. It turns out the Hillary Clinton email scandal is way more damaging and dishonest than even her harshest critics could have imagined.

    I’m sure that by now most of you are intimately aware of the scathing report issued by the State Department inspector general regarding Hillary Clinton’s unconscionable use of a private server for all her official government emails. It’s now clear that this was no honest mistake, but rather a deliberate attempt to shield her correspondence from the American people.

    Judge Andrew Napolitano has penned a must read piece about the whole affair at Reason titled, Inspector General’s Report Refutes All of Hillary Clinton’s Defenses For Using Private Email Server. Here are a few choice excerpts:

    The inspector general interviewed Clinton’s three immediate predecessors — Madeleine Albright, Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice — and their former aides about their email practices. He learned that none of them used emails as extensively as Clinton, none used a private server and, though Powell and Rice occasionally replied to government emails using private accounts, none used a private account when dealing with state secrets.

     

    Clinton and her former aides declined to cooperate with the inspector general, notwithstanding her oft-stated claim that she “can’t wait” to meet with officials and clear the air about her emails.

     

    The inspector general’s report is damning to Clinton. It refutes every defense she has offered to the allegation that she mishandled state secrets. It revealed an email that hadn’t been publicly made known showing Clinton’s state of mind. And it paints a picture of a self-isolated secretary of state stubbornly refusing to comply with federal law for venal reasons; she simply did not want to be held accountable for her official behavior.

     

    The report rejects Clinton’s argument that her use of a private server “was allowed.” The report makes clear that it was not allowed, nor did she seek permission to use it. She did not inform the FBI, which had tutored her on the lawful handling of state secrets, and she did not inform her own State Department IT folks.

     

    The report also makes clear that had she sought permission to use her own server as the instrument through which all of her email traffic passed, such a request would have been flatly denied.

    All of that’s bad enough, but here’s the shadiest part of all.

    Here is what is new publicly: When her private server was down and her BlackBerry immobilized for days at a time, she refused to use a government-issued BlackBerry because of her fear of the Freedom of Information Act. She preferred to go dark, or back to the 19th-century technology of having documents read aloud to her.

    So how do the Clinton people plan on spinning this gigantic debacle?

    We know that Clinton’s own camp finally recognizes just how dangerous this email controversy has become for her. Over the Memorial Day weekend, John Podesta, the chairman of Clinton’s campaign, sent an email to her most important donors. In it, he recognizes the need to arm the donors with talking points to address Clinton’s rapidly deteriorating support with Democratic primary voters.

     

    The Podesta email suggests attempting to minimize Clinton’s use of her private server by comparing it to Powell’s occasional use of his personal email account. This is a risky and faulty comparison. None of Powell’s emails from his private account — only two or three dozen — contained matters that were confidential, secret or top-secret.

    Good ol’ John Podesta. You know, the brother of Tony Podesta of the Podesta Group, a major lobbyist for the terrorist state of Saudi Arabia. These guys make a living from putting lipstick on pigs.

    Recall: “Getting Things Done” – The Brother of Hillary Clinton’s Campaign Chair is a Major Lobbyist for Saudi Arabia

    If you are curious as to why the inspector general of the State Department during Clinton’s years as secretary did not discover all of Clinton’s lawbreaking while she was doing it, the answer will alarm but probably not surprise you.

     

    There was no inspector general at the State Department during Clinton’s tenure as secretary – a state of affairs unique in modern history; and she knew that. How much more knowledge of her manipulations will the Justice Department tolerate before enforcing the law?

    But hey…

    Screen Shot 2016-06-02 at 3.45.29 PM

  • "Dwayne Pimps 3 Ho's" – Alabama Math Quiz Veers Too Close To Real Life

    No, this is not from The Onion.

    In an apparent attempt to make math more relevant to the young people of Alabama, a teacher at Burns Middle School in Mobile, required eighth-graders to take a math quiz that drew complaints from parents about inappropriate themes and racist overtones.

    As The Washington Post reports, nearly 900 students are enrolled at Burns Middle School, about 50 percent of them black and 40 percent white, according to state data. Forty-three percent qualify for free or reduced-price lunch.

    “Dwayne pimps 3 ho’s,” reads one question on the quiz given to students at Burns Middle School in Mobile, Ala. “If the price is $85 per trick, how many tricks per day must each ho turn to support Dwayne’s $800 per day crack habit?”

     

    Other questions refer to stolen cars, murder-for-hire, cocaine deals and drive-by shootings.

     

    “Tyrone knocked up four girls in the gang,” the quiz says. “There are 20 girls in the gang. What is the exact percentage of girls that Tyrone knocked up?”

     

    Rena Philips, a spokeswoman for Mobile County Public School System, said a parent raised concerns about the assignment  Tuesday and the school immediately launched an investigation and placed the teacher on administrative leave. Philips declined to identify the teacher or offer more details, citing privacy concerns related to personnel matters.

     

    “We regret that this happened, especially so close to the end of the school year,” Philips said. “We have 7,500 employees in Mobile County public schools, and the vast majority of them are doing phenomenal work in our classrooms.”

    The teacher has been suspended.

    One of the students photgraphed the quiz, which is reportedly an internet meme dating back to the 1990s…

     

    It’s not clear why the Mobile teacher decided to hand it out Friday, just a few days before school let out.

    “I couldn’t believe it,” one student’s mother exclaimed, “she told them that it wasn’t a joke, and they had to complete it, and turn it in.”

    Of course, we assume the teacher that has been put on administrative leave will still receive full pay and pension…

  • Why Conscripting Women Into Combat Will Result In Cultural Disaster

    Submitted by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    Each Memorial Day 2016, there are numerous articles published which examine the achievements and sacrifices of American veterans killed in action. With that subject thoroughly covered, I thought I might instead confront a topic that many people out there would rather not discuss. Get ready for the discomfort levels to increase dramatically, because we are going to tackle the problems surrounding women in combat.

    Now, it has been incredibly trendy the past five years or so to ride the warrior woman bandwagon, and to speak against it is to automatically earn accusations of “misogyny.”  With the third-wave feminist and social-justice agenda increasingly out in the open rather than remaining subtly subversive, you really can’t walk anywhere without stepping in a big steaming pile of propaganda.

    A large number of films and television shows released today, from Mad Max and Star Wars remakes to comic book movies and TV miniseries galore, all seem to be designed to promote the feminist ideology and the image of women "kicken' ass".  An important part of this ideology is the idea that men and women are "exactly"  the same in every capacity except genitals. That is to say, everything a man can do, a woman can do just as well or better, including fight and kill.

    I have to say, I find the spread of this delusion rather disturbing for several reasons. As a mixed martial arts instructor for over 14 years, I have worked with many men and women in combat training and combat mindset. I have never refused to train a woman based on her gender. That said, as training progresses and they reach a certain level of proficiency, I will always have every woman face off with a man for moderate sparring. From my observations, the experience for some of them can be rather shocking.

    For those who have never dealt with a violent assault in their lives, the mental concept of what women are capable of physically rarely matches reality. The sheer disparity in strength and speed between most men and most women is incredible. The average woman’s natural upper body strength alone is only 50% of the average man’s. If you want to witness this vast difference in action, I highly suggest you observe a rape prevention course in your area in which a man in a padded suit simulates an assault on the female students. Invariably, all the women are subdued and immobilized within seconds. When these women come out of training (far wiser than before), many of them purchase a firearm.  Even then, their safety in the face of a motivated male assailant with his own firearm is questionable.

    I have also trained women within various community preparedness team classes dealing with small arms combat tactics and movement, and of course, they have many limitations, but the biggest is simply being able to function physically at a similar level to male trainees.

    I realize that these are merely my own experiences and observations, and your average social justice warrior will argue that there are historical examples of women successfully operating in combat environments. This is not in dispute. I would point out, however, that these instances are the EXCEPTION, not the rule.

    To be clear, I am mostly supportive of the idea of women in the military, as long as they meet the same standards required of men, and that those standards are not artificially lowered in order to accommodate women who would otherwise fail. But, the maniacal feminists are driving to make everything in the world “equal” when it simply is not and never will be. If you cannot make men and women equal in every arena naturally, then you have to do it through force or dishonesty or bureaucracy.

    Also, it seems to me that the government may not be pushing for women in combat roles only to appease the political correctness cult. The fact that elements of Congress are attempting to add women to the draft (selective service) makes me think that they know something we do not. Is the federal government preparing for war on an even greater scale than is taking place today? If so, then the propaganda parade for women in combat makes perfect sense. Allowing the conscription of women would double the government’s pool of potential cannon fodder.

    In the meantime, women are bombarded with fantastical imagery in popular media of 100 pound girls pummeling hordes of 200 pound men and reigning victorious, giving them a false sense of invincibility that will lure them into combat service.

    The pressure from military brass and politicians in Washington is bearing down on recruitment and training centers. In 2013, General Martin E. Dempsey laid down an edict proclaiming that if women cannot meet current standards for combat roles, then senior commanders had better lower those standards.

    The “Dempsey rule” had its first test in 2015 when the Marines studied the success rate of 29 women in their Infantry Officers Course. Of the 29 women who entered the course, NONE passed the standards. Only four women made it through the first day’s combat endurance test.

    The 30th woman to attempt the Marines Infantry Officers Course dropped out after failing to complete a required hike.

    The Marines also undertook a nine-month-long experiment to form mixed-gender combat units and study performance rates. The results were dismal. Female participants were injured twice as often as men, were less accurate with infantry small arms and had trouble moving wounded troops from the battlefield.

    The Marine study also found that all male units had superior performance in 93 of 134 evaluated tasks compared to mixed gender units.

    Washington politicians and military brass have treated these results not as a practical warning, but as a threat to their agenda, claiming that current training standards are “no longer relevant on today’s battlefield”.

    As Gen. Dempsey later stated:

    “If we do decide that a particular standard is so high that a woman couldn’t make it, the burden is now on the service to come back and explain to the secretary, why is it that high? Does it really have to be that high?”

    So, now it becomes the burden of military commanders and trainers to argue the case for every single standard, standards which have been successful for decades but are now deemed “passé”. Meaning, standards that were always considered fair for men must now be treated as unfair for women. This is not only backwards thinking, it is pure insanity which puts all military personnel at risk.

    The U.S. Army has essentially already been forced to lower training standards in order to meet what some call “unspoken quotas” of female soldiers. As it turns out, the much lauded recent success of two women in the passage of the Army’s extremely difficult Ranger School was a bit of a farce.

    According to multiple sources within Fort Benning, the Ranger School was told that a woman WOULD GRADUATE the first gender integrated assessment of combat leadership; meaning, at least one would be passed regardless of performance.

    While 16 other women failed the course outright, Kristine Giest and Shaye Haver were pushed through to graduation. Special treatment included advantages like — women were given two weeks of extra training prior to men arriving at the school, and were acclimated to tests ahead of schedule while men had to attempt the same tests cold bore. Women were allowed multiple attempts to pass the program while men were given a strict pass/fail standard. Women were given extra nutritional counseling and a private Ranger tutor. Women were allowed to practice the land navigation course ahead of schedule; men had to approach the course cold. Women were allowed to repeat portions of the course until achieving a satisfactory score; men were not. A two star general was on the scene during training to cheer for women participants, truly revealing the political nature of the gender integrated assessment.

    Kristine Geist was even quoted as saying at a press conference before graduation:

    “I thought we were going to be dropped after we failed Darby [obstacle course] the second time… We were offered a day one recycle.”

    Clearly, in order for the cultural Marxists in our government to attain “gender equality” in the U.S. military, standards must be decidedly unequal and advantages must be stacked in favor of women. But what are the consequences of this?

    Some might argue that it really does not matter if standards are lowered for women; they deserve the same opportunities as men anyway. I disagree.

    The beauty of physical prowess, physical competition, mental toughness and yes, even combat, is that superior merit is the ONLY thing that matters. The best rise to the surface immediately, and the inadequate fall by the wayside, and there is no question or argument as to what is “fair” — two men enter, one man leaves — as they say in ‘Thunderdome’.

    The winners are the winners, and the results speak for themselves. Unfortunately, this is not the kind of world many Americans are used to living in anymore.

    In our increasingly collectivized society, merit is not even a factor anymore. Victim status groups are given special treatment everywhere, regardless of their lack of qualifications or performance. Universities hand out scholarships based on cultural identity rather than grades or test scores. Grants go to minorities and women regardless of credentials. Corporations maintain multicultural quotas due to affirmative action even if said people are less qualified.  Everywhere we look, standards are being erased in the name of political correctness and "fairness".

    This degrades our society as a whole and diminishes our competitive edge, our capacity for higher productivity, ingenuity and advancements that could improve the lives of millions. When the best people for the job are consistently overlooked in favor of mediocre people, a mediocre culture results. And mediocre cultures have a tendency to implode.

    It might be possible to argue that catering to the lowest common denominator in the civilian world will not result in outright death and carnage, but no one can argue that catering to the lowest common denominator in terms of military performance will result in anything but death and carnage.

    First, if female participants in training cannot meet the same standards as men and are passed anyway, they will not receive the respect or trust of those soldiers when they enter into combat. No male soldiers will feel safe within a mixed gender unit if the women are sub-par hacks that might get them killed.

     

    Second, lowering the standards for both men and women would result in a military loaded with weaklings.

     

    Third, women in combat through history are marginal and usually fight because of national desperation (the Soviet stand against the Nazi blitzkrieg is an example of such desperation, as well as the Kurdish women fighting ISIS today). A common example used by feminists to argue in favor of women in combat is the Israeli IDF, which conscripts women as well as men. But feminists and pro-female combatant advocates greatly misrepresent the level of participation IDF women have in combat roles. The IDF does not generally place women into special combat units or front line units, and women are confined to light battalions for nothing more than border security. Even the Israelis, with one of the most gender-mixed military’s in the world, knows better than to commit women to heavy combat.

     

    Fourth, military effectiveness usually depends on unit cohesion. This means that they operate best in teams and each member of the team represents a link in the chain. One weak link can result in the failure of the entire chain.

     

    Fifth, some argue that our military is now so "modernized" that the technology allows women combatants to achieve the same level of performance of male combatants.  The people who make this claim play too many video games and have obviously never marched 10 to 20 miles with a 50 pound (or more) rucksack on their back and a 8-10 pound rifle in their hands.  This is what soldiers do most of the time – move heavy gear into places no one wants to go.  Women are completely unequipped for this purely due to biology and current technology is not going to level the field.

     

    Finally, the safety of other soldiers is not the only risk. The women themselves also face extreme health hazards. According to the U.S. Army Institute Of Public Health, in basic combat training women suffer a 114% greater injury rate than men, and a 108% greater injury rate in medical and engineering training.

    At least one female Marine captain with considerable courage, Katie Petronio, has come out in opposition to women in combat roles, citing extreme health hazards including infertility, which she now suffers due to the dangerous physical damage incurred during training.

     

    While women are supposedly at no greater risk than men for PTSD, I have to voice one of my greatest concerns here. Military activities are not always in the service of that which is honorable; as Major General Smedley Butler famously said, “War is a racket!” When military personnel fight and die and witness their friends die for what they later discover is an unjust cause, PTSD as well as other disorders will result in higher frequency. The justness of various wars and even the draft is beyond the scope of this article, but a society at war, wrong or right, is basically sending their sons to be mentally battered. Some will make it back stable, and others will not. Now, we are talking about sending our daughters into the same psychological hellscape?

    What kind of culture will we have left when both fathers AND mothers are sent off to the meat grinder, perhaps both coming back scarred?

    For centuries, men have been going to war to keep women and children safe from witnessing the nightmare of combat at their doorstep. It’s not ideal (a standing army in the U.S. is not even constitutional), but sending women into the fray as well based on false pretenses of ability is even less ideal.

    Men and women are undeniably different — one is not better than the other, we just serve different roles in nature, and nature cannot be denied. Women are biologically inclined to bear children and to nurture families. Men are biologically inclined to protect and provide. Men are genetically designed for combat. Women are not. If a woman can meet the same standards as a man in military training, then she deserves the option of that role, but as recent studies have shown, this is not going to happen very often.

    Instead, an apparatus of cultural Marxism is forcefully opening a door to disaster; an entire generation of daughters and mothers will be duped into a role they are not built for or prepared for, ending in psychological and physical degradation they have no concept of, and weakening the very foundations of our nation for decades to come.

  • Sanders Takes LEAD Over Clinton In California

    The Los Angeles Times reports:

     A new USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll has found … [Sanders] has battled Clinton to a draw among all voters eligible for the Democratic primary, with 44% siding with him to 43% for Clinton.

    ***

    Democratic primary election for president poll

    Does this mean that it’s time for Sanders supporters to celebrate?

    Not yet …

    Clinton still has a 10-point lead among likely voters:

    Democratic primary election for president poll

    So unless the Sanders campaign steps up its get-out-the-vote effort, he’ll lose.

     

  • Asia's Largest Commodity Trader Just Sold Stock At A 63% Discount

    We rang the alarm bell when on Sunday night, one of our “favorite” companies and Asia’s largest, junk-rated commodity trader, Noble Group, unexpectedly announced two jarring developments: the removal of its long-term, ex-Goldman CEO, Yusuf Alireza, as well as the sale of its top performing asset, Noble Americas Energy Solutions. The company said that as a result of the sale it will generate “significant cash proceeds”, which as we then said “is great since Nobel is desperately in need of cash; it also means that the company is losing one more of its star performing assets as it continues to asset strip itself of any potential future growth, and is merely scrambling to preserve solvency and liquidity.

    It appears the cash proceeds raised just 4 days ago were not nearly enough!

    Moments ago, this scramble for liquidity hit another unprecedented low, when Noble announced that days after its CEO stepped down, Noble’s Chairman Richard Elman would also be leaving, at the same time as the company unveiled it would issue a massive $500 million rights offering at a whopping 63% discount to the market price, in a move which confirms just how little equity value insolvent, cash bleeding  commodity companies really have when push comes to shove and they have to pay down at all costs. It also begs the question why the company did not boost its $3 billion credit facility unveiled just three weeks ago by a token $500 million, which would have been available at a far lower cost of capital.

    There are two possible answers: either something went drastically wrong in just the past three weeks and a major need of cash emerged, or Noble is now so devoid of unencumbered assets that it can’t pledge anything to the banks from this point onward, and will be forced to dilute itself to death by a thousand cuts, until the company finally files for bankruptcy as we have been warning is the ultimately endgame since last summer.

    As for the rights offering, Bloomberg has the details: The Hong Kong-based company will offer 1 rights share for each existing share at 11 Singapore cents, a 63 percent discount from the close on Thursday, according to a statement on Friday. Of the total 6.54 billion shares to be issued, biggest holder Elman has agreed to take 625.5 million, while China Investment Corp., the third-largest, agreed to take 630.6 million. CIC will get a second seat on the board.

    This means that when the stock reopens for trading, its value, already at all time lows (our TERP math is a little rusty) will drop to an even more distressed, and far lower price.

    Which reminds us that we have been warning about this endgame since last summer, as first noted in “Noble Group’s Kurtosis Awakening Moment For The Commodity Markets.” The commodity market just had another jarring wake up call.

    For those who have missed the recent dramatic change in the company’s fortune (for the worse), here is a quick reminder: “Noble Group has endured another turbulent week after announcing the departure of CEO Yusuf Alireza on Monday and saying it planned to sell off a business, Noble Americas Energy Solutions, that less than a month ago he described as a core asset. The trader is seeking a turnaround after its shares collapsed amid the commodity rout and it faced allegations of improper accounting. China is the largest user of metals and energy, key commodities that Noble Group trades and supplies to mainland customers.”

    “Noble is still a major player in terms of global commodities and it makes sense strategically for Chinese interests to take a greater interest, given how much of a key player China is in global commodity markets,” said Tim Schroeders, a Melbourne-based portfolio manager at Pengana Capital Ltd., who helps oversee about $1.2 billion.

    Even better since there is nobody quite as skilled as China when it comes to throwing good money after bad.

    As for the Chairman, at Elman’s request, the board will set up a sub-committee to examine options for his succession, and will identify a replacement to assume the role of non-executive chairman. Elman wishes to step down as executive chairman within the next 12 months, it said. The search will be led by David Eldon, a non-executive director.

    The obligatory spin: “The rights issue, together with the sale of Noble Americas Energy Solutions announced last Monday and the previously announced sale of low-return assets and working-capital reduction measures will, in aggregate, generate $2 billion in additional liquidity over the next 12 months,” the company said. “This liquidity will be available to further reduce net debt, and will also significantly improve the group’s financial flexibility.”

    In other words, it cost the company its CEO, its Chairman and its most valuable asset, not to mention a massive dilution to existing stakeholders, to buy about year’s worth of operations and debt servicing.

    The new shares that aren’t underwritten either by Elman or CIC are being underwritten by a group of banks comprising HSBC Plc, Morgan Stanley, DBS Group Holdings Ltd., Societe Generale SA and ING Groep.

    According to data compiled by Bloomberg, Noble Group’s other major shareholders are Prudential Plc, with 9.9 percent; Orbis Group, which has a 9.6 percent holding; and Franklin Resources Inc., with 5.9 percent. They won’t be very happy after the company just took a chainsaw to their holdings.

    As noted above, the company obtained a fresh financing totaling $3 billion less than a month ago, while acknowledging some banks had cut credit facilities during the first quarter. It had net debt of $1.9 billion maturing over the next 12 months, Alireza said May 12.

    “It is clear from the decisive capital-raising actions that we have initiated post-refinancing that we have moved firmly to re-position our balance sheet.”

    Actually, no: the only thing you have succeeded in doing is admit that it was unable to obtain a secure line of credit for all the funds it desperately needed, forcing the cash-burning company into a blue light special liquidation. And if this: Asia’s largest commodity trader, had to give a 63% discount to investors to put more money into it, thereby it also succeeded in giving the world a glimpse of just how massively overvalued commodity-related companies are as a result of the recent historic short squeeze. Luckily, even record squeezes eventually end. For what happens next look no further than Noble.

  • Goldman Unveils The FX Doom Loop: Turns "Outright Negative" On Yuan Due To "Weak Link"

    When we first presented the so-called “Nightmarish Merry Go Round“, dubbed so by Bank of America because of the reflexive, recursive bond – and trap – that has formed between the Fed and markets…

    … in which neither can break free from the other, and yet each is more dependent on the other than ever, we said that instead of looking at the relationship as one between the Fed and the market, one can further simplify the relationship as one between the USD, a proxy for Fed tightening or easing intentions, and the Chinese Yuan, a proxy for the Chinese economy, capital outflows and general volatility.

    Today, Goldman has released a note which lays out precisely this relationship in what it calls the “RMB-FOMC Monetary Policy Loop”, but before we introduce yet another firm’s realization of just how circular the relationship between central banks and markets has become, here is Goldman’s abrupt reversal on what it think will happen to the Yuan in the near-future, because as Goldman’s Robin Brooks – who has been relentless bullish on the USD – now says that “we shift to an outright negative view on the RMB, in line with this week’s Asia Views and our bearish RMB forecast.”

    The reason for Goldman’s sudden bearishness is “because there is a weak link in China’s management of its currency.”

    This is how it explains the link:

    “To be sure, the government has clearly communicated a shift in focus to a trade-weighted currency basket, de-emphasizing the signal that the bilateral exchange rate versus the Dollar carries. But domestically, the only signal that matters is $/CNY, so that higher fixings could easily re-ignite capital flight, as households and firms anticipate a faster pace of depreciation.”

     One need look no further than the recent spike in bitcoin driven by Chinese buying to see this in action, as the local have been scared out of their wits by relentless PBOC intervention in the FX market. Gpldman goes on:

    Even though global markets have so far taken weaker fixings in their stride, one regularity over the past year has been that the SPX has fallen sharply within a week or two of $/CNY fixing meaningfully higher, as focus on capital outflows and RMB depreciation has built.  

     

     

    We believe that the risk of a repeat is rising, which in turn could have knock-on effects for the pace of Fed tightening and Dollar strength ahead. We call this the “RMB-FOMC Monetary Policy Loop,” where the importance of the bilateral $/CNY rate domestically may slow the pace of Fed monetary policy normalization, which our US team has also highlighted.”

    The implication: sliding CNY means risk off:

    [T]he shift to a trade-weighted exchange rate has a weak link, which is that the main signal for households and businesses within China remains the bilateral exchange rate versus the Dollar. As the $/CNY fix has moved higher again over the past month (Exhibit 1), the risk is that this re-ignites capital flight in the same manner it did in August (during the mini-devaluation) and around the turn of the year. This is because capital outflows are heavily expectation-based, such that weaker fixings inevitably fan anxiety that a bigger devaluation is in train. In short, while the shift to a trade-weighted regime certainly makes sense, China is saddled with the history of the bilateral exchange rate, which means that fixing $/CNY weaker is not as easy as it sounds. This matters for global markets because previous episodes when $/CNY has fixed materially higher have seen the SPX fall sharply within one to two weeks… 

     

     

    with the DAX and NKY marching in lock-step (Exhibit 4). With the Fed approaching another hike over the summer (our US team puts a 70 percent probability on this), the risk of a repeat is growing, which via financial conditions could then loop back into US monetary policy.

    Which brings us to what may be the biggest topic of 2015: the collapse in China’s FX reserves, something which Goldman believes is about to be repeated:

    From the perspective of China’s policy makers, there is an implicit trade-off between the pace of reserve losses and keeping the exchange rate stable in trade-weighted terms. By way of illustration, capital outflows during the first quarter were -$155bn according to the balance of payments, so that they could amount to -$600bn for the year. Even allowing for continued improvement in the current account, this means that reserve losses could run between -$200bn and -$300bn this year and next, after reserve losses of -$343bn in 2015.

     

     

    We remain in the camp that the level of China’s reserves (currently around $3,200bn) is more than sufficient to deal with this pace of drawdown, but – realistically speaking – we see a good chance that markets will again speculate over the need for a one-off devaluation, even if the message from policy makers has been that this is not on the cards.

    Essentially, what Goldman is saying is that the same “risk off” wave that followed the sharp devaluation episodes of mid and late-2015 is about to return, even though so far the market has been largely sanguine as it still does not really believe that the Fed will follow through with another hike.

    Which brings up to the topic of Goldman’s monetary policy “doom loop“, which carries an uncanny resemblance to the “nightmarish merry go round” chart shown top. To wit:

    The Fed remains a wild card in all of this. Our base case has been that some tightening in financial conditions, including via the Dollar, is needed to offset strong underlying momentum in growth and inflation. But if financial conditions tighten again on an SPX fall, there is a risk the Fed could again shift dovish, in what we are calling the “RMB-FOMC Monetary Policy Loop,” an implicit recognition that US monetary policy has spillovers to China, which is struggling with the legacy of its bilateral exchange rate peg to the Dollar. The sensitivity of the SPX to RMB weakness is thus something of a stabilizer for the Dollar bloc, potentially preventing the Fed from moving too quickly. That said, our base case remains that the US economy is strong enough to withstand a tightening cycle that will take the Fed funds target to 3.4 percent in Q3 2019.

    And the chart.

     

    And there you have it: Goldman just went bearish on the one currency which can destabilize the entire house of cards.

    Which begs the question: is Goldman then quietly selling the USD and buying the Yuan, as it is has an alleged tendency of doing by frontrunning its clients… or is its reco genuine this time, and is actually seeking to cause the risk off avalanche. Recall that over the past month, Goldman has gotten both tactically and strategically bearish. It just needed the spark to unleash the fall. By telling clients to sell the Yuan, it may have just found it.

  • The CFPB Plans On Regulating Payday Lenders, But What Will The Unintended Consequences Be?

    The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) plans to crack down on payday lenders, moving to regulate high-interest, low dollar loans that are made by storefront lenders to an estimated 12 million lower-income households living paycheck to paycheck.

    The $38.5 billion market is currently left to the states to regulate, but now the government wants to get involved. The payday rule, proposed by the CFPB will impose a complex set of requirements on the payday industry, mandating that lenders assess a borrower's ability to repay and making it harder for lenders to roll over loans, a practice that often heads to escalating borrowing fees the WSJ reports. The rule will go through a 90-day public comment period, with a formal rollout expected early next year.

    From the WSJ

    Under the new rules, the CFPB imposes a series of “full payment tests” on lenders, customized to different types of loans, requiring the firms to do extensive due diligence to see if borrowers can repay their loans. Currently, few payday lenders do such underwriting, saying it is too costly.

     

    Lenders would be required to go through another review of borrowers’ finances if the borrower seeks to renew or extend the loan.

    Congress prohibited the CFPB from setting a direct interest rate cap for federal rules, so the agency is seeking to change the lending practices by other means. To regulate payday lending, the bureau is for the first time relying on its authority to prohibit "unfair, deceptive, or abusive acts and practices." Marking an area of regulation that is much more nuanced than where it had been given a clear mandate by congress such as mortgages and credit cards.

    Payday lenders of course oppose the pending rule, saying it would force many out of business and leave low-income borrowers without much needed credit. Opponents of the rule also cite a January survey by Bankrate.com showing that only 37% of adult Americans have the necessary savings to cover a $500 car repair or $1,000 emergency room bill.

    "Congress told the CFPB to regulate payday, not annihilate it, and so much of what they are proposing represents annihilation" said Dennis Shaul, chief executive of the Community Financial Services Association of America, the primary industry group of payday lenders.

    Even some advocates of new federal regulations on payday lending criticize the rules, saying the complexity and tight strings would discourage banks and others from entering the market, possibly leaving a void. "The CFPB proposal misses the mark" said Nick Bourke, director of small-dollar loan research at Pew Charitable Trusts, who was briefed on the proposal. Bourke added that the rules effectively lock out small-dollar loans from banks.

    CFPB Director Richard Cordray said that "too many borrowers seeking a short-term cash fix are saddled with loans they cannot afford and sink into long-term debt. It's much like getting into a taxi just to ride across town and finding yourself stuck in a ruinously expensive cross-country journey."

    Cordray is correct in his assessment, but the critical element here is how to help those low income earners if payday lending goes away. If those individuals get frozen out of financial institutions, where will they turn for short term cash in order to pay those one-off emergency items. This is the question that will ultimately have to play itself out throughout this process. It is a potential issue because as more and more of the only available jobs are on the lower end of the pay scale, or worse, the jobs for rural Americans disappear as we discussed previously, there will be a need for those individuals to access credit, and if it's not there, real social unrest will manifest itself.

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