• Poles Are Getting Fed Up With Ukrainian Refugees & The Proxy War; Latest Survey Shows
  Poles Are Getting Fed Up With Ukrainian Refugees & The Proxy War; Latest Survey Shows

  Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

  The state-run Polish Press Agency recently reported on the publication of the latest survey by the publicly financed Center for Public Opinion Research about Poles’ attitudes towards Ukrainian refugees and the proxy war.

  

  The results might surprise casual observers who hitherto assumed that this population is still gung-ho about both due to their supposedly innate and irredeemable Russophobia. Before diving into the details, the reader should review these three prior analyses on this subject:

  * 21 February: “A Top EU Think Tank’s Poll Proved That Polish Views Towards Ukraine Are Noticeably Shifting”

  * 27 March: “What Do The Latest Surveys Say About Poles’ Attitudes Towards Ukraine & The Farmers’ Protests?”

  * 8 July: “Interpreting A Top EU Think Tank’s Latest Survey On Polish Attitudes Towards Ukraine”

  Having shared the evolving statistical context for those who are interested, it’s now time to highlight what the latest survey showed.

  Only a little more than half of Poles (53%) support accepting more Ukrainian refugees, while two-thirds (67%) want to deport conscription-aged Ukrainian males (25-60 years old).

  Less than half (46%) support Ukraine continuing to fight Russia, slightly less (39%) want it to give up territory for peace, and a little bit more (44%) believe that this will ultimately happen in any case.

  The military-strategic context within which these results were obtained is that Poland confirmed in late August, several weeks before the survey was conducted between 12-22 September, that it had already maxed out its military support for Ukraine.

  Mainstream Media outlets like CNN also began sharing glimpses of just how bad everything had become for Ukraine too.

  The Volhynia Genocide dispute, which deeply enrages most Poles, returned to the fore of bilateral relations in early September as well.

  This confluence of factors served to catalyze the preexisting trends that were discovered by the previously cited surveys and led to the surprising situation where two-thirds of Poles want to deport conscription-aged Ukrainian males even though less than half support Ukraine continuing to fight Russia.

  In other words, they want to send them to their deaths for a cause that they themselves no longer support, which hints at a vindictiveness towards them that’s only now being discussed by top officials.

  Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz told an interviewer last week that:

  “The fact is that our society is very shocked by the sight of young men from Ukraine driving the best cars, spending weekends in five-star hotels. And this is unfair to Poles, who contribute to healthcare, benefits, education, not to mention weapons supplies and other assistance.”

  He himself also expressed resentment towards his state-level Ukrainian peers by accusing them of taking Polish aid for granted.

  In his words, “We gave Ukraine military equipment worth over 15 billion złoty and we were the first to do so when others were wondering whether they could send anything. If we, as Poland, had not given them all those tanks, planes and other weapons, there would be no one to help today. And I have the feeling that the Ukrainian side does not remember this, is not aware that if it were not for this Polish help, they would not have reached the stage they are at today. This is not right.”

  It therefore naturally follows that a growing number of Poles have become fed up with Ukrainian refugees and the proxy war after feeling that their country has been taken advantage of. Poles are a generous people, but they also have enough self-respect to not tolerate ingratitude from those who they help. Ukrainians and their state have spit in Poles’ faces for far too long, which is why most of the latter now want to throw those that have leeched off of them into the Russian meatgrinder as revenge. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/23/2024 – 02:00

• The Danger Is Real: The Deep State's Plot To Destabilize The Nation Is Working
  The Danger Is Real: The Deep State’s Plot To Destabilize The Nation Is Working

  Authored by John & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

  “The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out … without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane, intolerable.”

  – H. L. Mencken

  If the three-ring circus that is the looming presidential election proves anything, it is that the Deep State’s plot to destabilize the nation is working.

  The danger is real.

  

  Caught up in the heavily dramatized electoral showdown between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, Americans have become oblivious to the multitude of ways in which the government is goosestepping all over our freedoms on a daily basis.

  Especially alarming is the extent to which those on both sides are allowing themselves to be gaslighted by both Trump and Harris about critical issues of the day, selectively choosing to hear only what they want to hear when it casts the opposition in a negative light.

  This is true whether you’re talking about immigration and border control, health care, national security, the nation’s endless wars, protections for free speech, or the militarization of the U.S. government.

  For starters, there’s the free speech double standard, what my good friend Nat Hentoff used to refer to as the “free speech for me but not for thee” phenomenon in which the First Amendment’s protections only apply to those with whom we might agree.

  Despite her claims to being a champion for the rule of law, which in our case is the U.S. Constitution, Harris isn’t averse to policing so-called “hate” speech. In this, Harris is not unlike those on both the Right and the Left who continue to express a distaste for unregulated, free speech online, especially when it comes to speech with which they might disagree.

  Then there’s Trump, never a fan of free speech protections for his critics, who has been particularly vocal about his desire to see the military vanquish “radical left lunatics,” which he has dubbed “the enemy from within.”

  If it were only about muzzling free speech activities, that would be concerning enough.

  But Trump’s enthusiasm for using the military to target domestic enemies of the state should send off warning bells, especially coinciding as it does with the Department of Defense’s recent re-issuance of Directive 5240.01, which empowers the military to assist law enforcement “in situations where a confrontation between civilian law enforcement and civilian individuals or groups is reasonably anticipated.”

  This is what martial law looks like—a government of force that relies on the military to enforce its authority—and it’s exactly what America’s founders feared, which is why they opted for a republic bound by the rule of law: the U.S. Constitution.

  Responding to concerns that the military would be used for domestic policing, Congress passed the Posse Comitatus Act in 1878, which makes it a crime for the government to use the military to carry out arrests, searches, seizure of evidence and other activities normally handled by a civilian police force.

  The increasing militarization of the police, the use of sophisticated weaponry against Americans and the government’s increasing tendency to employ military personnel domestically have all but eviscerated historic prohibitions such as the Posse Comitatus Act.

  Yet sometime over the course of the past 240-plus years that constitutional republic has been transformed into a military dictatorship disguised as a democracy.

  Unfortunately, most Americans seem relatively untroubled by the fact that our constitutional republic is being transformed into a military dictatorship disguised as a democracy.

  The seeds of chaos that have been sown in recent years are all part of the Deep State’s plans to usher in martial law.

  Observe for yourself what has been happening right before our eyes.

  Domestic terrorism fueled by government entrapment schemes. Civil unrest stoked to dangerous levels by polarizing political rhetoric. A growing intolerance for dissent that challenges the government’s power grabs. Police brutality tacitly encouraged by the executive branch, conveniently overlooked by the legislatures, and granted qualified immunity by the courts. A weakening economy exacerbated by government schemes that favor none but a select few. Heightened foreign tensions and blowback due to the military industrial complex’s profit-driven quest to police and occupy the globe.

  This is no conspiracy theory.

  There’s trouble brewing, and the government is masterminding a response using the military.

  Just take a look at “Megacities: Urban Future, the Emerging Complexity,” a Pentagon training video created by the Army for U.S. Special Operations Command.

  The training video is only five minutes long, but it says a lot about the government’s mindset, the way its views the citizenry, and the so-called “problems” that the government must be prepared to address in the near future through the use of martial law.

  Even more troubling, however, is what this military video doesn’t say about the Constitution, about the rights of the citizenry, and about the dangers of locking down the nation and using the military to address political and social problems.

  The training video anticipates that all hell will break loose by 2030, but the future is here ahead of schedule.

  We’re already witnessing a breakdown of society on virtually every front.

  By waging endless wars abroad, by bringing the instruments of war home, by transforming police into extensions of the military, by turning a free society into a suspect society, by treating American citizens like enemy combatants, by discouraging and criminalizing a free exchange of ideas, by making violence its calling card through SWAT team raids and militarized police, by fomenting division and strife among the citizenry, by acclimating the citizenry to the sights and sounds of war, and by generally making peaceful revolution all but impossible, the government has engineered an environment in which domestic violence is becoming almost inevitable.

  The danger signs are screaming out a message

  The government is anticipating trouble (read: civil unrest), which is code for anything that challenges the government’s authority, wealth and power.

  According to the Pentagon training video created by the Army for U.S. Special Operations Command, the U.S. government is grooming its armed forces to solve future domestic political and social problems.

  What they’re really talking about is martial law, packaged as a well-meaning and overriding concern for the nation’s security.

  The chilling five-minute training video, obtained by The Intercept through a FOIA request and made available online, paints an ominous picture of the future—a future the military is preparing for—bedeviled by “criminal networks,” “substandard infrastructure,” “religious and ethnic tensions,” “impoverishment, slums,” “open landfills, over-burdened sewers,” a “growing mass of unemployed,” and an urban landscape in which the prosperous economic elite must be protected from the impoverishment of the have nots.

  And then comes the kicker.

  Three-and-a-half minutes into the Pentagon’s dystopian vision of “a world of Robert Kaplan-esque urban hellscapes — brutal and anarchic supercities filled with gangs of youth-gone-wild, a restive underclass, criminal syndicates, and bands of malicious hackers,” the ominous voice of the narrator speaks of a need to “drain the swamps.”

  Drain the swamps.

  Surely, we’ve heard that phrase before?

  Ah yes.

  Emblazoned on t-shirts and signs, shouted at rallies, and used as a rallying cry among Trump supporters, “drain the swamp” became one of Donald Trump’s most-used campaign slogans.

  Now the government has adopted its own plans for swamp-draining, only it wants to use the military to drain the swamps of futuristic urban American cities of “noncombatants and engage the remaining adversaries in high intensity conflict within.”

  And who are these noncombatants, a military term that refers to civilians who are not engaged in fighting?

  They are, according to the Pentagon, “adversaries.”

  They are “threats.”

  They are the “enemy.”

  They are people who don’t support the government, people who live in fast-growing urban communities, people who may be less well-off economically than the government and corporate elite, people who engage in protests, people who are unemployed, people who engage in crime (in keeping with the government’s fast-growing, overly broad definition of what constitutes a crime).

  In other words, in the eyes of the U.S. military, noncombatants are American citizens a.k.a. domestic extremists a.k.a. enemy combatants who must be identified, targeted, detained, contained and, if necessary, eliminated.

  In the future imagined by the Pentagon, any walls and prisons that are built will be used to protect the societal elite—the haves—from the have-nots.

  If you haven’t figured it out already, we the people are the have-nots.

  Suddenly it all begins to make sense.

  The events of recent years: the invasive surveillance, the extremism reports, the civil unrest, the protests, the shootings, the bombings, the military exercises and active shooter drills, the color-coded alerts and threat assessments, the fusion centers, the transformation of local police into extensions of the military, the distribution of military equipment and weapons to local police forces, the government databases containing the names of dissidents and potential troublemakers.

  The government is systematically locking down the nation and shifting us into martial law.

  This is how you prepare a populace to accept a police state willingly, even gratefully.

  You don’t scare them by making dramatic changes. Rather, you acclimate them slowly to their prison walls.

  Persuade the citizenry that their prison walls are merely intended to keep them safe and danger out. Desensitize them to violence, acclimate them to a military presence in their communities, and persuade them that there is nothing they can do to alter the seemingly hopeless trajectory of the nation.

  Before long, no one will even notice the floundering economy, the blowback arising from military occupations abroad, the police shootings, the nation’s deteriorating infrastructure and all of the other mounting concerns.

  It’s happening already.

  The sight of police clad in body armor and gas masks, wielding semiautomatic rifles and escorting an armored vehicle through a crowded street, a scene likened to “a military patrol through a hostile city,” no longer causes alarm among the general populace.

  Few seem to care about the government’s endless wars abroad that leave communities shattered, families devastated and our national security at greater risk of blowback.

  The Deep State’s tactics are working.

  We’ve allowed ourselves to be acclimated to the occasional lockdown of government buildings, Jade Helm military drills in small towns so that special operations forces can get “realistic military training” in “hostile” territory, and  Live Active Shooter Drill training exercises, carried out at schools, in shopping malls, and on public transit, which can and do fool law enforcement officials, students, teachers and bystanders into thinking it’s a real crisis.

  Still, you can’t say we weren’t warned about the government’s nefarious schemes to lock down the nation.

  Back in 2008, an Army War College report revealed that “widespread civil violence inside the United States would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities in extremis to defend basic domestic order and human security.” The 44-page report went on to warn that potential causes for such civil unrest could include another terrorist attack, “unforeseen economic collapse, loss of functioning political and legal order, purposeful domestic resistance or insurgency, pervasive public health emergencies, and catastrophic natural and human disasters.”

  In 2009, reports by the Department of Homeland Security surfaced that labelled right-wing and left-wing activists and military veterans as extremists (a.k.a. terrorists) and called on the government to subject such targeted individuals to full-fledged pre-crime surveillance. Almost a decade later, after spending billions to fight terrorism, the DHS concluded that the greater threat is not ISIS but domestic right-wing extremism.

  Meanwhile, the government has been amassing an arsenal of military weapons for use domestically and equipping and training their “troops” for war. Even government agencies with largely administrative functions such as the Food and Drug Administration, Department of Veterans Affairs, and the Smithsonian have been acquiring body armor, riot helmets and shields, cannon launchers and police firearms and ammunition. In fact, there are now at least 120,000 armed federal agents carrying such weapons who possess the power to arrest.

  Rounding out this profit-driven campaign to turn American citizens into enemy combatants (and America into a battlefield) is a technology sector that has been colluding with the government to create a Big Brother that is all-knowing, all-seeing and inescapable. It’s not just the drones, fusion centers, license plate readers, stingray devices and the NSA that you have to worry about. You’re also being tracked by the black boxes in your cars, your cell phone, smart devices in your home, grocery loyalty cards, social media accounts, credit cards, streaming services such as Netflix, Amazon, and e-book reader accounts.

  All of this has taken place right under our noses, funded with our taxpayer dollars and carried out in broad daylight without so much as a general outcry from the citizenry.

  And then you have the government’s Machiavellian schemes for unleashing all manner of dangers on an unsuspecting populace, then demanding additional powers in order to protect “we the people” from the threats.

  Are you getting the picture yet?

  The U.S. government isn’t protecting us from terrorism.

  The U.S. government is creating the terror. It is, in fact, the source of the terror.

  Just think about it for a minute: Cyberwarfare. Terrorism. Bio-chemical attacks. The nuclear arms race. Surveillance. The drug wars.

  Almost every national security threat that the government has claimed greater powers in order to fight—all the while undermining the liberties of the American citizenry—has been manufactured in one way or another by the government.

  Did I say Machiavellian? This is downright evil.

  We’re not dealing with a government that exists to serve its people, protect their liberties and ensure their happiness. Rather, these are the diabolical machinations of a make-works program carried out on an epic scale whose only purpose is to keep the powers-that-be permanently (and profitably) employed.

  Mind you, by “government,” I’m not referring to the highly partisan, two-party bureaucracy of the Republicans and Democrats.

  I’m referring to “government” with a capital “G,” the entrenched Deep State that is unaffected by elections, unaltered by populist movements, and has set itself beyond the reach of the law.

  I’m referring to the corporatized, militarized, entrenched bureaucracy that is fully operational and staffed by unelected officials who are, in essence, running the country and calling the shots in Washington DC, no matter who sits in the White House.

  Be warned: in the future envisioned by the government, we will not be viewed as Republicans or Democrats. Rather, “we the people” will be enemies of the state.

  For years, the government has been warning against the dangers of domestic terrorism, erecting surveillance systems to monitor its own citizens, creating classification systems to label any viewpoints that challenge the status quo as extremist, and training law enforcement agencies to equate anyone possessing anti-government views as a domestic terrorist.

  What the government failed to explain was that the domestic terrorists would be of the government’s own making, and that “we the people” would become enemy #1.

  As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, we’re already enemies of the state.

  It’s time to wake up and stop being deceived by Deep State propaganda.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/22/2024 – 23:25

• Reporter Injured By Bullet Fragment During Kinzinger-Democrat Campaign Stunt
  Reporter Injured By Bullet Fragment During Kinzinger-Democrat Campaign Stunt

  A local TV reporter was struck in the arm with a bullet fragment while covering a campaign event for a Democratic Senate candidate featuring former Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R).

  

  Missouri Democratic candidate Lucas Kunce – who’s trying to unseat Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) – was shooting an AR-15 at the time, and was the only person shooting when KSHB-TV’s Ryan Gamboa was struck.

  

  Kunce, a former Marine, wrapped gauze around Gamboa’s arm and applied a tourniquet using his belt, according to the Kansas City Star, which notes that ‘Kunce has his military background in campaign ads, some of which show him firing a gun.‘

  After he was treated, Gamboa soldiered on covering the event.

  

  Maybe ‘hunters’ Kamala Harris and Tim Walz should have stopped by to offer some tips – like how to load a shotgun with your crotch?

  🚨 NEW: Disgraced former Congressman Adam Kinzinger and Democrat MO Senate nominee Lucas Kunce went shooting today for a photo-op, and a reporter ended up being SH0T

  Absolutely incredible.

  These idiots decided it’d be a good idea to shoot metal plates with an AR-15 from just… pic.twitter.com/NcIh4QimNC

  — Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) October 23, 2024

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/22/2024 – 23:00

• Israeli Ministers Call For Expulsion Of Palestinians At 'Resettle Gaza' Conference
  Israeli Ministers Call For Expulsion Of Palestinians At ‘Resettle Gaza’ Conference

  Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

  On Monday, Israeli Knesset members and senior government ministers attended a conference on re-establishing Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip that was held in southern Israel near the Gaza border.

  The conference, titled “Preparing to Resettle Gaza,” was organized by the Israeli settler organization Nachala and members of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party.

  

  At least ten out of the 32 Likud party members in the Israeli Knesset were set to attend the conference, including May Golan, who is in Netanyahu’s government as the minister for Social Equality and the Advancement of the Status of Women.

  In a speech at the rally, which drew hundreds of attendees, Golan vowed Palestinians in Gaza would face another “Nakba,” referring to the ethnic cleansing of Palestinian Arabs when the modern state of Israel was formed in 1948.

  “We will hit them where it hurts – their land,” Golan said, according to Haaretz. “Anyone who uses their plot of land to plan another Holocaust will receive from us, with God’s help, another Nakba that they will tell their children and their grandchildren about for the next 50 years.”

  National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, leader of the Jewish Power party, also delivered a speech at the conference, and he received a very warm welcome. Haaretz reported that attendees broke out in chants of “Look over here, it’s our next Prime Minister” and “Death penalty for terrorists,” referring to Ben Gvir’s calls to execute Palestinian prisoners to make room in Israeli prisons.

  In his speech, Ben Gvir said, “We will encourage the voluntary transfer of all Gazan citizens. We will offer them the opportunity to move to other countries because that land belongs to us.”

  Far-Right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir leads the crowd in song at the “Preparing to Resettle Gaza” Conference, which took place over two days on Israel’s southern border with Gaza.

  Ben-Gvir was greeted by eager applause from the crowd. “We are the owners of the… pic.twitter.com/hbVP7XdTSK

  — Rachel Fink (@RachelSFink) October 21, 2024

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  Ben Gvir and other proponents of conquering Gaza have framed their idea as “voluntary” for the Palestinians, but the Israeli military campaign has made most of Gaza uninhabitable. Palestinians in northern Gaza are currently facing Israeli evacuation orders to move to the south under the threat of death by military action or starvation.

  Other Israeli ministers who attended the conference include Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Yitzhak Wasserlauf, the minister for the development of the Negev and Galilee.

  Daniella Weiss, a leader of Nachala, vowed that Jewish settlements would begin popping up in Gaza within a year. “In less than a year, each one of you can call me and ask me if I succeeded in fulfilling my dream,” she told reporters at the conference. “Actually, you don’t even have to call me. You will witness how Jews go to Gaza and Arabs disappear from Gaza.”

  Daniella Weiss, one of the leaders of the settlement movement, was a featured speaker at the “Preparing to Resettle Gaza” Conference which took place over two days on Israel’s border with Gaza. Speaking to foreign journalists, she vowed to renew the Jewish presence in Gaza within… pic.twitter.com/SFmNA8SZce

  — Rachel Fink (@RachelSFink) October 21, 2024

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  Weiss also made it clear that her ambitions for Israeli expansion did not stop in Gaza or the West Bank. “The real borders of greater Israel are between the Euphrates River and the Nile.”

  Haaretz recently reported that the Israeli government is not seeking to revive ceasefire talks with Hamas and is now pushing for the gradual annexation of large portions of the Gaza Strip.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/22/2024 – 22:35

• Escape Biden-flation Storm With A Walmart Tiny Home
  Escape Biden-flation Storm With A Walmart Tiny Home

  Housing affordability in the United States under the Biden-Harris administration has hit a generational low. After all, WEF’s slogan of ‘owning nothing and being happy’ has become an alarming reality for millions of Americans in the last 3.5 years.

  

  To counter this hellscape that Democrats have created through the worst inflation storm since the 1970s, folks stuck in the doom loop of renting in dangerous big cities should find a plot of land in rural America. Next, find a tiny home. 

  We’ve discussed this for years: as the standard of living implodes in the US, the size of homes will shrink. Television shows have popularized tiny homes in recent years, and big-box retailers have been selling them (Home Depot).

  

  Walmart is the latest retailer selling tiny homes. It now offers a 19-by-20-foot “expandable prefab house” delivered by flatbed truck for $15,900.

  

  It looks almost like a double-wide mobile home from the Canadian mockumentary television sitcom ‘Trailer Park Boys.’ 

  

  For $21,888, Walmart is offering a towable tiny home. 

  

  Next, browse Zillow for land lots in rural America. A simple search in Terra Alta, West Virginia, shows numerous lots with multiple acres for dirt cheap.

  

  Why go this route? Well, it’s cheaper than trying to afford the most basic home. Also, grow your own food and source locally, breaking away from the processed food industrial complex.

  Fast Food is a part of American culture. But that doesn’t mean it has to be unhealthy, and that we can’t make better choices. Did you know that McDonald’s used to use beef tallow to make their fries from 1940 until phasing it out in favor of seed oils in 1990? This switch was… pic.twitter.com/ygijMtsSQt

  — Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) October 21, 2024

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  According to data compiled by the National Association of Realtors, the average household income to buy a home now requires over $100k. 

  

  Housing affordability has collapsed to record lows under Biden-Harris…

  

  Power hookups and wells are extra costs. Plus, for remote workers, connecting to the internet is as easy as using a Starlink terminal.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/22/2024 – 22:10

• Health Care Is Complicated
  Health Care Is Complicated

  Authored by Jerry Rogers via RealClearHealth,

  The American healthcare system is not really one system. No, health care in the U.S. is comprised of several systems – Medicare, Medicaid, TRICARE, private insurance as well as myriad state and local healthcare programs. What’s more, patients have access to charity care programs and patient assistant programs. For instance, pharmaceutical manufacturers sponsor patient assistance programs (PAPs) that provide financial assistance or free product (through in-kind product donations) to low-income individuals to augment any existing prescription drug coverage.

  

  So, when you hear a politician talking about quick fixes to lower the cost of medicine, usher in a single-payer system like ‘Medicare-for-All’, or bring about an immediate free-market revolution to health care, it’s not true. There are no easy reforms or singular solutions that will impact all the layers and complications of providing greater access to health care at lower costs.

  Healthcare reform requires numerous transformations that will take time, and the willingness of both the public and private sectors to evolve. The one truth about American health care is that it’s a complete mess.

  The current health care environment demands an ‘all-of-the-above’ approach – more private-sector competition, health insurance flexibility, greater price transparency, and myriad other reforms. For instance, what are Alternative Funding Programs (AFPs) and how do they deliver medical coverage to patients?

  Businesses are desperate to remain competitive – our economy has been shattered by historic inflation, unprecedented supply-chain shortages, high interest rates, and low-cost foreign competition. AFPs could help small businesses in their efforts to stay open – and thrive. AFPs help companies reduce their health care costs by ‘offloading’ the health expenses of certain specialty medications. AFPs can do this by exploiting the pharmaceutical industry’s charitable giving – the patient assistant programs. Very simply put, AFPs help employers lower their pharmacy benefit costs. Alternative Payment Programs advocate for patients by navigating the complicated healthcare landscape of PAPS to find solutions where employer-sponsored health plans fall short.

  Millions of Americans are underinsured – they might have some form of group health plan coverage, but that coverage doesn’t adequately address their medical costs – the specialty medicines they need. Specialty drugs are high-cost prescription medications used by patients with serious, complex illnesses – for instance, patients with cancer, arthritis or MS. AFPs fill the insurance gap for the underinsured patient – an insurance gap that if not addressed leaves patients vulnerable to both serious illnesses and financial ruin.

  AFPs can help patients lacking traditional insurance; specifically, patients who are in self-funded plans that do not provide coverage for high-cost prescription medications needed to treat chronic conditions – i.e., specialty medicines. AFPs serve patients who can’t afford treatment, and patients who lack the financial means to pay for the medication out-of-pocket.

  AFPs are a growing presence impacting our healthcare systems, and their business model is provocative. The pharmaceutical industry points to how AFPs are designed to take advantage of manufacturer-sponsored PAPs, primarily for high-cost specialty medications. AFPs work by carving out specialty medicines and then using patients’ insurance status to enroll them in a manufacturer PAP. The results are health plans and employers benefit from these services by saving money on prescriptions.

  In a recent conversation with Paydhealth’s David A. Galardi (Chief Commercial Office), he described his company’s vocation with an actual client’s circumstance:

  ‘In a large school district, an employee under a group health plan needed three costly specialty medications. Without intervention, the district would have faced nearly $650,000 in annual costs. PaydHealth stepped in, reviewed the case, identified forms of assistance the individual was eligible for, and helped secure free assistance for the employee within 72 hours. This not only preserved access to the prescribed therapy but also saved the public sector employer from bearing the high costs while ensuring the patient received the necessary treatment.’

  AFPs are a part of the healthcare ether. Paydhealth’s website puts it this way: We are ‘changing the funding of specialty healthcare to re-imagine the possibilities of bringing real savings to the purchaser of health care’ – the patient

  Specialty medications account for 51% of total pharmacy spending though they are used by less than 2% of the population. Policymakers should be looking at solutions to get the right medicine to the right patient at the right time – and at the right cost. Let’s have that public discussion so patients see greater access to the medicines and treatments they need.

  AFPs, like Paydhealth, could be part of the health care fix patients deserve – addressing real problems in the healthcare space.

  Jerry Rogers is editor at RealClearPolicy and RealClearHealth. He hosts ‘The Jerry Rogers Show’ on WBAL NewsRadio 1090/FM 101.5 and the Federal Newswire’s ‘The Business of America’. Follow him on Twitter @JerryRogersShow.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/22/2024 – 21:45

• India's Modi Urges Quick 'Peaceful' End To Ukraine War In Meeting With Putin
  India’s Modi Urges Quick ‘Peaceful’ End To Ukraine War In Meeting With Putin

  On the first day of the annual BRICS summit held in Kazan, Russia – Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi issued a call for the war in Ukraine to be resolved peacefully and “quickly”.

  This is the message he conveyed directly Russian President Vladimir Putin upon the start of the three-day gathering. Putin hopes to present the BRICS alliance as the main alternative to Western hegemony.

  “We have been in constant touch over the conflict between Russia and Ukraine,” Modi told Putin, just after the two once again shared a warm embrace. “We believe that disputes should only be resolved peacefully. We totally support efforts to quickly restore peace and stability,” Modi emphasized. Russia looks anything but “isolated” during this week of hosting major heads of state.

  

  “All our efforts give priority to humanity. India is ready to provide all possible cooperation in the times to come,” the prime minister added.

  Modi had recounted upon arriving in Kazan the night prior – and as a way to highlight steady relations with Moscow despite the more than two-year long Ukraine war – that this is his second visit to Russia in just three months.

  “My two visits to Russia in the last three months reflect our close coordination and deep friendship. Our Annual Summit in Moscow in July has strengthened our cooperation in every field…In 15 years, the BRICS has created its special identity and now many countries of the world want to join it. I am looking forward to participating in the BRICS Summit tomorrow,” Modi said.

  Putin responded positively by describing that “Russian-Indian relations have the character of a particularly privileged strategic partnership and continue to actively develop.”

  Modi and Putin laugh at a joke by the Russian president…

  🇷🇺🇮🇳 “Our Relations are So Good, You Understand Without a Translator” – Putin Jokes with Modi

  A friendship between nations not lost in translation?#BRICS2024 pic.twitter.com/bQ92M1yZHB

  — RT_India (@RT_India_news) October 22, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Other BRICS partners are likely to repeat this call for peace and de-escalation in Ukraine. Around two dozen global leaders in the Russian city, notably including Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

  Russian state sources are hailing Russia playing host to the summit:

  By hosting BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia “shows the West that it’s not isolated” and President Vladimir Putin “is no pariah,” Time Magazine reported on Tuesday.

  According to Alicia Garcia-Herrero, a senior research fellow at the Bruegel think tank who spoke to the outlet, BRICS “expansion is a clear sign that the global balance of power is shifting.”

  Top of the agenda toward this end will be discussion of and the further advancing of a BRICS-led payment system to rival the SWIFT international payment system, which President Putin has long talked about.

  Looks who’s arriving in “Isolated Russia” for the huge BRICS summit 2024

  The leaders of the biggest economies and democracies on Earth.

  Russian President Putin to hold meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian PM Modi at BRICS Summit tomorrow in Russia. pic.twitter.com/rs1OiJuD0J

  — sumit (@sumityou40) October 22, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The conflicts breaking out in the Middle East will also be a prime topic, given Israel is still vowing to strike back at Iran for the Oct.1st ballistic missile attack, and as Lebanon comes under increasing bombardment by Israeli jets.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/22/2024 – 21:20

• The Rise Of The Humble
  The Rise Of The Humble

  Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  I’m part of a supper club that meets monthly. It was founded at the height of the lockdowns when everyone was being forced into masks and being muscled into getting the shot. This group resisted both, despite the imposing certainty of the mandates.

  

  All these years later, the community is still bonded. Friendships formed and lasted. The culture is one of deep questioning. Each meeting is replete with incredulity toward official pronouncement, a shared perception that elite opinion and elite institutions were simply wrong. And not just about COVID but about everything.

  It’s not a political group at all. Its central theme concerns the failure of conventional wisdom and all the ways in which legacy institutions preached error over several years. These days, as all polls have revealed, this view is widely held. Many of the most pressing trends of our time are about dislodging an old elite (in media, corporate life, government) and replacing them with people interested in new ways.

  I’ve noticed a common feature among many of the rising stars that are displacing the falling stars of the old elites. They are much more humble about what they know and what they do not know. They are happy to admit it. The days of “I am the science” and “We are your source of truth” seem to be ending. The guru scientist and soothsaying academic have fallen from their perches of influence.

  Replacing them is a new generation of thinkers who are happy to admit what they do not know. The other day, for example, Tucker Carlson said he often feels what is called imposter syndrome. This is the belief that every achievement is really just a lucky break, a sneaky feeling that we have temporarily pulled the wool over people’s eyes.

  It’s a humble admission, one we should all appreciate. It’s a common feeling among anyone commonly described as a genius. Even Elon Musk must feel this. Ironically, the person who believes that the moniker of genius is unjust is the person most likely to deserve it.

  The problem of constantly deciding whether we are great or terrible at what we do, toying with the belief that we are geniuses just before worrying that we will be exposed as frauds, is just part of life and a real sign of humility.

  A good example comes from an account of a man who competed as a pianist in the amateur Van Cliburn contest in the 1990s:

  “I haven’t felt this nervous before any recital and tell myself that I should be confident, having already made it through the previous rounds. But I can’t shake the fear that I’m a fraud who lucked into the finals while all the other finalists are pros, even if they’re called amateurs. An extra degree of scrutiny directed at me is attributable to the conspicuous nature of my profession [journalist], which is no consolation at the moment. Reverse psychology—I’m not a fraud, I’m a star—doesn’t help, either. Star, fraud—the only thing I conclude is that I should be focusing on the music.”

  That article appeared in 1999, and the passage above is the one that stood out to me. It signifies that search that all of us make to define a sense of precisely who we are based on our skill level and, in turn, what to expect from others in their treatment of us. Mostly, however, it works in the opposite direction. We extract information from what others around us say about us and infuse that sense into our self-perceptions.

  From little league baseball through one’s school years and all the way to professional life, the following happens to everyone. You do something amazing, and everyone sings your praises. But now you have a new problem: expectations are newly high for your performance. This is especially true if you have won or received a promotion or raise: Now you have to get out there and kill it every time, else you will be seen as undeserving.

  There’s an added problem to being perceived as a genius. Others will want to tear you down and revel in your fall. Envy is the most hidden, but most deeply dangerous of the deadly sins. Those who envy victims are almost always surprised because they were expecting their achievement to be followed by accolades and promotion, not resentment and nefarious plots. But the only way to avoid envy is intolerable: never be excellent.

  Elon faces this daily of course. But so do insurgent political candidates and newly popular media figures. The forces trying to tear them down are everywhere.

  In poor societies, this is the common and tragic response. It’s also a feature of declining societies in which ever more people have money, power, and influence who have done nothing to merit either. They owe their status to legacy and inertia, and cling to it against all winds of change.

  Today such entrenched elites exist in all sectors: the corporate world, government, academia, media, politics, nonprofits, and more. Everyone has encountered them. They are everywhere. There is a word to describe them: fakers.

  The number one fear of a faker is being found out, so every day is spent in scheming and plotting to prevent that. This is why fakers surround themselves with people who are willing to be complicit in the coverup of incompetence, i.e., “Yes men” whose main skill is nodding in agreement. For this reason, fakers breed other fakers and promote them to flood the zone of fakes in hopes of hiding for longer.

  They all develop what today is being called “testy” personalities which they deploy as tactics of intimidation, always with this habit of resenting anyone who questions their words and judgment. They are prickly because they have a grim truth to hide always: namely that they have not merited their status, title, power, or income, and possess a fraction of the abilities of the people over whom they rule.

  In the corporate world, they love calling staff meetings because fakers have learned the art of time-killing blather to cover up for their fundamental incompetence. They have nothing better to do so they call many and make them last as long as possible.

  Fakers loathe competence and punish it. They drip poison in people’s ears to stop the social and professional advancement of their betters. They drive out those with skill in an effort to avoid being shown up. In doing so, they are a source of quiet chaos all around them.

  There is really no cure for this problem. Once a professional is promoted beyond his or her competence—due to family connections, personal relationships, identity visuals, indulging and exploiting undeserved credit and praise, or whatever—there is no going back. The only possible solution, and it is ultimately a compassionate one, is full professional termination. This is because they cannot be dialed back lest they seethe with resentment and plot retribution.

  Of course that solution requires competent leadership in a position to make hard decisions, which is precisely what the fakers are working to prevent.

  In the credit-soaked, bloated, and credential-obsessed economic structures of the 21st century, fakers are everywhere. They demoralize competent employees, demotivate hard work and improvement, foment distrust within and without, and ultimately wreck and discredit whole institutions.

  The imposter syndrome, in contrast, is something felt by every truly competent person. To some extent, all reputations of geniuses are exaggerated. Despite the high reputations of the Wright Brothers, Alexander Graham Bell, and Eli Whitney, there is in fact an ongoing dispute about who was first in flight, who invented the telephone, and whether the cotton gin was actually improved much at all by Whitney’s machine.

  Historians of invention have yet to discover any innovations that were genuinely the product of a single mind. What we find again and again is the phenomenon of Multiple Discovery, with many people competing for the title of the first. It is for this reason that Nobel Prizes are increasingly given to teams of researchers. It seems more accurate to say that genius is in the air and perceived by many different people in different places, even if they have never had contact with each other.

  F.A. Hayek showed that the highest forms of intelligence do not live so much in individuals’ minds but in social processes and institutions that no single human mind can fully conceptualize. The result is an order that no man can accurately comprehend or describe, much less design. This is precisely the core of his defense of freedom in speech and action: we need this process to be adaptable to become ever smarter and more reflective of a multitude of intelligences that emerge from human action.

  Where does that leave us as individuals? All we can hope to do is precisely what the pianist quoted above says: “I should be focusing on the music.” That is to say, do the best we can on the task in which we are engaged. You will have moments of genius and moments of failure, sometimes home runs and sometimes strikeouts, good performances and bad. Knowing this is neither a complex nor a syndrome; it is the stuff of life.

  It is perfectly normal to worry that the plaudits one receives are not truly merited. The most successful musicians I’ve known are not the best; it’s just that they work harder to become successful. It’s the same with writers, scientists, engineers, or entrepreneurs. They are great because they focus on constant improvement.

  The “natural talents” among us rarely blossom because they don’t have to work at it. At the same time, seeming disabilities become abilities because they motivate us to overcome them.

  History will surely record that elite arrogance over the last four years has proven to be their undoing. In contrast, we might be watching the rise of a new generation of leaders in many fields who approach their craft with a different ethos: the humility to recognize one’s limits, a dedication to authenticity, and a passion for genuine excellence in the service of others. We can hope.

  Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/22/2024 – 20:55

• IRS Unveils New Federal Income Tax Brackets For 2025
  IRS Unveils New Federal Income Tax Brackets For 2025

  The IRS on Oct. 22 unveiled the new federal income tax brackets for 2025.

  

  As The Epoch Times’ Zachary Stieber reports, each bracket was changed, including the top one.

  Single taxpayers making more than $636,350, or couples making more than $751,600, will be subject to a 37 percent tax rate.

  That’s up from $609,350, and $731,200, respectively.

  Here are the other new brackets, with the old income threshold in parentheses:

  • 35 percent tax for singles making more than $250,525 ($243,725) and married couples making more than $501,050 ($487,450)

  • 32 percent tax for singles making more than $197,300 ($191,950) and married couples making more than $394,600 ($383,900)

  • 24 percent tax for singles making more than $103,350 ($100,525) and married couples making more than $206,700 $201,050()

  • 22 percent tax for singles with incomes over $48,475 ($47,150) and married couples making more than $96,950 ($94,300)

  • 12 percent tax for singles with incomes over $11,925 ($11,600) and married couples making more than $23,850 ($23,200)

  • 10 percent tax for singles with incomes of $11,925 or less ($11,600 or less) and married couples making $23,850 or less ($23,200 or less)

  The IRS also said it is increasing the standard deduction for individuals by $400 to $15,000, and for married couples by $800 to $30,000.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/22/2024 – 20:30

• Prostate Cancer: Over-Testing And Over-Treatment
  Prostate Cancer: Over-Testing And Over-Treatment

  Authored by Bruce Davidson via The Brownstone Institute,

  The excessive medical response to the Covid pandemic made one thing abundantly clear: Medical consumers really ought to do their own research into the health issues that impact them. Furthermore, it is no longer enough simply to seek out a “second opinion” or even a “third opinion” from doctors. They may well all be misinformed or biased. Furthermore, this problem appears to predate the Covid phenomenon.

  

  A striking example of that can be found in the recent history of prostate cancer testing and treatment, which, for personal reasons, has become a subject of interest to me. In many ways, it strongly resembles the Covid calamity, where misuse of the PCR test resulted in harming the supposedly Covid-infected with destructive treatments.

  Two excellent books on the subject illuminate the issues involved in prostate cancer. One is Invasion of the Prostate Snatchers by Dr. Mark Scholz and Ralph Blum. Dr. Scholtz is executive director of the Prostate Cancer Research Institute in California. The other is The Great Prostate Hoax by Richard Ablin and Ronald Piana. Richard Ablin is a pathologist who invented the PSA test but has become a vociferous critic of its widespread use as a diagnostic tool for prostate cancer.

  Mandatory yearly PSA testing at many institutions opened up a gold mine for urologists, who were able to perform lucrative biopsies and prostatectomies on patients who had PSA test numbers above a certain level. However, Ablin has insisted that “routine PSA screening does far more harm to men than good.” Moreover, he maintains that the medical people involved in prostate screening and treatment represent “a self-perpetuating industry that has maimed millions of American men.”

  Even during approval hearings for the PSA test, the FDA was well aware of the problems and dangers. For one thing, the test has a 78% false positive rate. An elevated PSA level can be caused by various factors besides cancer, so it is not really a test for prostate cancer. Moreover, a PSA test score can spur frightened men into getting unnecessary biopsies and harmful surgical procedures.

  One person who understood the potential dangers of the test well was the chairman of the FDA’s committee, Dr. Harold Markovitz, who decided whether to approve it. He declared, “I’m afraid of this test. If it is approved, it comes out with the imprimatur of the committee…as pointed out, you can’t wash your hands of guilt. . .all this does is threaten a whole lot of men with prostate biopsy…it’s dangerous.”

  In the end, the committee did not give unqualified approval to the PSA test but only approved it “with conditions.”

  However, subsequently, the conditions were ignored.

  Nevertheless, the PSA test became celebrated as the route to salvation from prostate cancer. The Postal Service even circulated a stamp promoting yearly PSA tests in 1999. Quite a few people became wealthy and well-known at the Hybritech company, thanks to the Tandem-R PSA test, their most lucrative product.

  In those days, the corrupting influence of the pharmaceutical companies on the medical device and drug approval process was already apparent. In an editorial for the Journal of the American Medical Association (quoted in Albin and Piana’s book), Dr. Marcia Angell wrote, “The pharmaceutical industry has gained unprecedented control over the evaluation of its products…there’s mounting evidence that they skew the research they sponsor to make their drugs look better and safer.” She also authored the book The Truth About the Drug Companies: How They Deceive Us and What to Do About It.

  A cancer diagnosis often causes great anxiety, but in actuality, prostate cancer develops very slowly compared to other cancers and does not often pose an imminent threat to life. A chart featured in Scholz and Blum’s book compares the average length of life of people whose cancer returns after surgery. In the case of colon cancer, they live on average two more years, but prostate cancer patients live another 18.5 years.

  In the overwhelming majority of cases, prostate cancer patients do not die from it but rather from something else, whether they are treated for it or not. In a 2023 article about this issue titled “To Treat or Not to Treat,” the author reports the results of a 15-year study of prostate cancer patients in the New England Journal of Medicine. Only 3% of the men in the study died of prostate cancer, and getting radiation or surgery for it did not seem to offer much statistical benefit over “active surveillance.”

  Dr. Scholz confirms this, writing that “studies indicate that these treatments [radiation and surgery] reduce mortality in men with Low and Intermediate-Risk disease by only 1% to 2% and by less than 10% in men with High-Risk disease.”

  Nowadays prostate surgery is a dangerous treatment choice, but it is still widely recommended by doctors, especially in Japan. Sadly, it also seems to be unnecessary. One study cited in Ablin and Piana’s book concluded that “PSA mass screening resulted in a huge increase in the number of radical prostatectomies. There is little evidence for improved survival outcomes in the recent years…”

  However, a number of urologists urge their patients not to wait to get prostate surgery, threatening them with imminent death if they do not. Ralph Blum, a prostate cancer patient, was told by one urologist, “Without surgery you’ll be dead in two years.” Many will recall that similar death threats were also a common feature of Covid mRNA-injection promotion.

  Weighing against prostate surgery are various risks, including death and long-term impairment, since it is a very difficult procedure, even with newer robotic technology. According to Dr. Scholz, about 1 in 600 prostate surgeries result in the death of the patient. Much higher percentages suffer from incontinence (15% to 20%) and impotence after surgery. The psychological impact of these side effects is not a minor problem for many men.

  In light of the significant risks and little proven benefit of treatment, Dr. Scholz censures “the urology world’s persistent overtreatment mindset.” Clearly, excessive PSA screening led to inflicting unnecessary suffering on many men. More recently, the Covid phenomenon has been an even more dramatic case of medical overkill.

  Ablin and Piana’s book makes an observation that also sheds a harsh light on the Covid medical response: “Isn’t cutting edge innovation that brings new medical technology to the market a good thing for health-care consumers? The answer is yes, but only if new technologies entering the market have proven benefit over the ones they replace.”

  That last point especially applies to Japan right now, where people are being urged to receive the next-generation mRNA innovation–the self-amplifying mRNA Covid vaccine. Thankfully, a number seem to be resisting this time.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/22/2024 – 20:05

• US Insider Selling Soars To 3 Year High As China Buybacks Surge To Record
  US Insider Selling Soars To 3 Year High As China Buybacks Surge To Record

  China may have failed once again to stabilize its moribund housing market and flagging economy, with its latest superficial attempt to stimulate consumer demand by releasing another modest trickle of overdue but insufficient monetary and fiscal stimulus measures, but it is certainly not giving up on hopes to prop up the market at almost any cost.

  Following relentless prodding from the central government, share buybacks on mainland China’s biggest exchanges have soared to a record high this year as Beijing pushes for companies to return cash to shareholders as part of its efforts to revive a flagging stock market.

  According to the FT, there have been Rmb235bn ($33bn) in buybacks across mainland-listed shares so far in 2024, more than double last year’s total and far surpassing the previous record of Rmb133bn in 2022, according to financial data provider Wind.

  

  The scramble to repurchase shares comes as China’s government unleashes its biggest round of economic stimulus since the Covid-19 pandemic, which however has again been seen as insufficient by the market. Beijing is keen to boost investor sentiment, underscoring growing urgency to restore confidence in an economy hit hard by a property sector crisis and weak consumer demand. The government is stepping up efforts to hit its year-end GDP growth target of 5%.

  While the benchmark CSI 300 index had risen as much as 20% over the past month amid Beijing’s bid to breathe new life into its equity market after years of dismal performance, it has since given up much of the gains as expectations of even more stimulus measures did not materialize.

  Goldman’s China strategist Kinger Lau argued that buybacks made “economic sense” for companies with cash to spare given how far Chinese share prices had fallen, and added that such a move could also bolster the government’s coffers when it held big stakes in companies.

  The surge in buybacks began even before the Chinese authorities announced Rmb300bn in central bank loans to fund share repurchases last week; that news however will surely supercharge the buybacks even more.

  More than 20 Chinese companies, including state oil group Sinopec, have announced share buyback plans exceeding Rmb10bn since the announcement of the central bank scheme on Friday, according to a Financial Times calculation based on exchange filings.

  Jason Bedford, a China banking analyst formerly at UBS and asset manager Bridgewater, said Beijing was seeking an equity rally by encouraging buybacks. “Clearly, the government has been pushing this throughout the year,” he said.

  Kin Chan, chief investment officer at Argyle Street Management in Hong Kong, said that China was following “a Japanese approach, which is telling companies to do share buybacks”.

  “As a stock market player, this is wonderful, but does this solve the economic problem? I have no idea,” he said.

  Meanwhile, as China is coming up with feat of financial engineering to prop up its flagging stocks in hopes of creating a virtuous wealth effect cycle, in the US insiders are doing just the opposite.

  At a time when stocks have had no shortage of buyers, as even formerly bearish hedge funds capitulate and unleash the biggest buying spree of stocks since 2021, joining retail investors and record US buybacks, all helping propel US stocks to a sixth straight up week, US company insiders are dumping in near record amounts.

  As Bloomberg notes, while business leaders were busy last week offering reassuring earnings guidance, underneath the rosy outlook was a different trend: They were selling stock… which has traditionally been a major red flag as these are the people who best know the inner workings of the companies they run.

  As shown below, a gauge of insider sentiment, one that tallies the number of sellers versus buyers, is poised to hit the highest monthly reading in more than three years, data compiled by the Washington Service show.

  

  The figures chime with various high-profile sales that have made headlines recently, including Warren Buffett’s unloading of Apple and Bank of America stock, as well as sales by Nvidia insiders, including CEO Jensen Huang.

  

  Granted, some of the exits no doubt have nothing to do with the business outlook, driven instead by the need for cash to buy a house or pay for kids’ tuition. And the stock rally has been mostly invulnerable for months amid Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and generally good tidings on the economy and earnings.

  Still, the last time the insider indicator shot up, in July, it was a precursor to market pain, with the S&P 500 subsequently falling 8%.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/22/2024 – 19:40

• Michigan Voter Rolls Claim 8.4M Voters, When There Are Less Than 8M Eligible Residents
  Michigan Voter Rolls Claim 8.4M Voters, When There Are Less Than 8M Eligible Residents

  Authored by Eric Lendrum via American Greatness,

  The voter rolls in Michigan claim that there are 8.4 million people registered to vote in the crucial swing state, even though the state’s total population is almost half a million less than that.

  

  According to the Daily Wire, the state of Michigan had previously been sued by the Republican National Committee (RNC) over the extremely inflated voter rolls, and other concerns regarding election integrity.

  But Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D-Mich.) dismissed such concerns in a statement on Wednesday, claiming with no evidence that these lawsuits “lay the groundwork to overturn the results of the election if they don’t like them.”

  “The RNC and its members are concerned that Defendants’ failure to comply with the NVRA’s voter-list maintenance obligations undermines the integrity of elections by increasing the opportunity for ineligible voters or voters intent on fraud to cast ballots,” the RNC’s lawsuit states.

  A spokeswoman for Benson’s office, Angela Benander, even admitted that there are at least 606,800 inactive voters currently on the rolls, but they will not be purged until 2027. Voters who become ineligible include those who have moved to another state, those who have mail returned from their address as “undeliverable,” and voters who do not vote in two or more consecutive federal elections.

  “The RNC relies on registration lists to estimate voter turnout, which informs the number of staff the RNC needs in a given jurisdiction, the number of volunteers needed to contact voters, and how much the RNC will spend on paid voter contacts,” the RNC’s lawsuit continued.

  “If voter registration lists include names of voters who should no longer be on the list, the RNC may spend more resources on mailers, knocking on doors, and otherwise trying to contact voters, or it may misallocate its scarce resources among different jurisdictions.”

  In total, 78 of Michigan’s 83 counties appear to have more registered voters than residents of voting age.

  The largest county in the state, Wayne County – where the city of Detroit is located – has only 1.3 million residents of voting age, but 1.4 million registered voters, according to data from the U.S. Census.

  Another example is Genessee County, with 351,000 registered voters but less than 300,000 residents.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/22/2024 – 19:15

• Polaris Warns "Challenging Retail Demand" For ATVs & Jetskis
  Polaris Warns “Challenging Retail Demand” For ATVs & Jetskis

  Polaris shares fell in premarket trading after the company, known for selling ATVs, UTVs, jet skis, and snowmobiles, posted disappointing third-quarter earnings. The company also cut its full-year earnings per share and sales forecast, citing sagging demand for outdoor vehicles due to elevated interest rates. 

  “As consumer confidence and retail demand remain challenging, we have maintained our focus on managing dealer inventory and delivering better operational efficiency,” Polaris CEO Mike Speetzen wrote in a press release. 

  

  Polaris reported sales of $1.72 billion, down 23% YoY, missing the Bloomberg estimate of $1.77 billion. Sales were down modestly in off-road vehicles, motorcycles, and pontoons. 

  Here’s a snapshot of third-quarter earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg):  

  • Sales $1.72 billion, -23% y/y, estimate $1.77 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)

  • Off Road sales $1.40 billion, -24% y/y, estimate $1.41 billion

  • On Road sales $236.5 million, -13% y/y, estimate $241.6 million

  • Marine sales $85.9 million, -36% y/y, estimate $133.7 million

  • Gross profit margin 20.6% vs. 22.6% y/y, estimate 21%

  • Cash and cash equivalents $291.3 million, -1.4% y/y, estimate $337.8 millio

  • Adjusted EPS from continuing operations 73c, estimate 89c

  Visualizing Polaris’ quarterly revenues… The cheap money era of Covid, plus folks moving out of cities to resort towns and or just rural America, sparked a massive demand for outdoor vehicles. As the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy, which sent interest rates to the moon, affordability for these outdoor grown-up toys worsened, thus curbing demand.

  

  As a result of a challenging market, one in which high interest rates have curbed consumer spending on jetskis, RZRs, and snowmobiles, Polaris had to lower its full-year earnings per share and sales guidance:

  • Sees adjusted EPS -65%, saw -56% to -62%

  • Sees sales -20%, saw -17% to -20%

  Polaris explained more about its reasoning behind lowering its 2024 business outlook:

  The company updated its 2024 sales outlook to be down approximately 20 percent relative to 2023 versus its previous outlook of down 17 to 20 percent relative to 2023. The company now expects adjusted diluted EPS attributed to Polaris Inc. common shareholders to be down approximately 65 percent relative to 2023 versus the prior outlook of down 56 to 62 percent.

  In markets, Polaris shares in New York are down 7%. On the year, shares are down 15% (as of Monday’s close). Shares are hovering at levels last seen since right before the Covid crash. 

  

  Also, watch MasterCraft Boat, MarineMax, Camping World, Brunswick, and Malibu Boats. 

  Polaris is a proxy of consumer health. Certainly, high interest rates and elevated inflation have crimped demand for ATVs, UTVs, and jet skis. The broad theme here is that a consumer slowdown continues to worsen. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/22/2024 – 18:50

• 'Central Park Five' Sue Trump Over Debate Remarks
  ‘Central Park Five’ Sue Trump Over Debate Remarks

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

  Five men cleared of rape charges sued former President Donald Trump on Oct. 21, arguing he defamed them with comments he made at a recent presidential debate.

  

  Trump said during the September debate with Vice President Kamala Harris that the so-called Central Park Five “pled guilty” and that they “badly hurt a person” and “killed a person, ultimately.”

  The new suit, filed in federal court in Pennsylvania, states that those remarks are defamatory because the five men were never accused of nor convicted of killing anyone.

  The plaintiffs say Trump made the comments negligently, either with the knowledge that they were false or with reckless disregard as to their falsity.

  “Defendant Trump’s conduct at the September 10 debate was extreme and outrageous, and it was intended to cause severe emotional distress to Plaintiffs,” the suit states.

  Juries in 1990 convicted Yusef Salaam, Raymond Santana, Kevin Richardson, Antron Brown, and Korey Wise of rape and other charges. They had pleaded not guilty, after they admitted to participating in a night of criminal activity, including assault and robbery, in Central Park on April 19, 1989.

  Some of the then-teenagers said they had assaulted or sexually touched a jogger Trisha Meili and implicated others in raping her.

  The five, two weeks after their confessions, had recanted their statements, saying that they were allegedly coerced by police into giving false confessions in the case.

  Matias Reyes, a convicted rapist, a decade later confessed to raping Meili on the evening of April 19.

  Investigators confirmed the details offered by Reyes.

  Prosecutors told a state court the convictions against the five males should be vacated, because their confessions linking the five to related crimes were obtained under duress after hours of questioning and without the presence of their guardians or legal counsel.

  A judge in 2002 vacated the five men’s convictions based on the newly discovered evidence.

  A New York Police Department report later concluded that while DNA and other evidence supported Reyes’s story, there was “nothing but his uncorroborated word that he did so alone.” It said that the men “more likely than not” took part in Reyes’s assault of Meili.

  “The new DNA evidence … does not assist in determining whether the defendants were present during the attack on the jogger,” it said.

  Trump, who paid for an advertisement in 1989 calling for the five to be put to death, was responding during the debate after Harris highlighted his involvement with the case.

  “This is the same individual who took out a full-page ad in The New York Times calling for the execution of five young Black and Latino boys who were innocent, the Central Park Five,” she said.

  Trump then offered his response and said that Harris “has to stretch back years, 40, 50 years ago because there’s nothing now.”

  In 2019, when asked if he would apologize to the five men, Trump told reporters that “They admitted their guilt.”

  Steven Cheung, a spokesman for Trump’s campaign, told news outlets that the filing “is just another frivolous election interference lawsuit filed by desperate left-wing activists in an attempt to distract the American people from Kamala Harris’s dangerously liberal agenda and failing campaign.”

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/22/2024 – 18:25

• McWeaponized: CDC Unveils E.coli Outbreak In Quarter-Pounders, Day After Trump Photo-Op
  McWeaponized: CDC Unveils E.coli Outbreak In Quarter-Pounders, Day After Trump Photo-Op

  There’s no such thing as coincidence in Washington…

  A day after former President Trump ventured into a McDonalds during a campaign stop, cooked some fries, and handed out some food to more-than-happy customers in a photo-op that went very viral (in a good way), the CDC issued a statement announcing an E. coli outbreak linked to McDonald’s Quarter Pounders has left one person dead and caused 10 hospitalizations.

  There are 49 cases across 10 states, with most illneses in Colorado and Nebraska (not where president Trump was)…

  E. COLI OUTBREAK: CDC is investigating 49 illnesses in 10 states linked to McDonald’s Quarter Pounder hamburgers. If you ate a Quarter Pounder hamburger from McDonald’s and have severe symptoms of E. coli, contact your healthcare provider. https://t.co/g87itkupCQ pic.twitter.com/gHzUKCnTi9

  — CDC (@CDCgov) October 22, 2024

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  “This is a fast-moving outbreak investigation. Most sick people are reporting eating Quarter Pounder hamburgers from McDonald’s and investigators are working quickly to confirm which food ingredient is contaminated,” the CDC’s alert said.

  “McDonald’s has pulled ingredients for these burgers, and they won’t be available for sale in some states,” the CDC said.

  “McDonald’s reported to CDC that it has stopped using fresh slivered onions and quarter pound beef patties in several states,” the CDC said.

  The announcement of the outbreak sent MCD shares down 10% in the after-market (before bouncing back a little)…

  

  The timing of the sudden share-price-crushing contagion comes after McDonald’s corporate office dared to actually accept and welcome ‘hitler, stalin, and mussolini’ into their fast-food joint.

  In an email to employees that was seen by The Epoch Times, the company said that its “brand has been a fixture of conversation this election cycle” and that “we’ve not sought this” but is a “testament to how much McDonald’s resonates with so many Americans.”

  “McDonald’s does not endorse candidates for elected office and that remains true in this race for the next President,” McDonald’s said in the statement, dated Oct. 21. “We are not red or blue—we are golden.”

  The company said that Trump’s visit to a Pennsylvania McDonald’s location was handled locally by a franchise operator.

  “Upon learning of the former President’s request, we approached it through the lens of one of our core values: we open our doors to everyone,” the company said.

  And, in case you thought we over-reached here, this is how the New York Times decide to cover this Trump photo-op…

  

  Yes, that is right – they allegedly asked MCD employees if Trump did a good job!?

  When it was time to bag the order, he asked a woman at the drive-through what they did when a customer wanted more salt.

  “I love salt,” he said, as he shook some onto golden potatoes.

  Then, after spilling some, he paused to throw some over his shoulder in a nod to superstition, a seconds-long gesture that would have most likely been unappreciated by efficiency-loving managers had Mr. Trump been any other employee.

  And remember, Kamala worked there too… according to a friend…

  

  Finally, nothing would shock us more than if Jack Smith stepped in to probe Trump’s cleanliness…

  Trump about to be arrested for the 5th time? https://t.co/kDLynBNafz

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 22, 2024

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  McWeaponized!!

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/22/2024 – 18:00

• Mexico Escalates Its War On Obesity By Declaring National Ban On Junk Food Sales In Schools
  Mexico Escalates Its War On Obesity By Declaring National Ban On Junk Food Sales In Schools

  Authored by Nick Corbishley via Naked Capitalism,

  Mexico is the leading consumer of soft drinks in the world with an average consumption of 163 litres per person per year – 40% more than the US in second place. Child and adult obesity are off the charts. 

  

  Yesterday (Oct. 21), while Donald Trump was causing a stir by donning a McDonald’s uniform for the cameras and frying some fries, Mexico’s new Secretary of Public Education, Mario Delgado, announced the launch of a new nationwide program that is unlikely to be replicated north of the border any time soon. The goal of the program, titled “Vida Saludable” (Healthy Life), is to improve the nutrition and overall health of Mexican school children amid an epidemic of child obesity and diabetes.

  The program, enacted by the now-former AMLO administration on September 29, has four main pillars: prevent the sale of ultra-processed food and sugary drinks in school settings; promote the consumption of natural drinking water through the provision of water fountains; train educators in healthy nutrition; and promote sports and physical activity. The Claudia Sheinbaum government, still in its maiden month in office, has said it will also train the heads of school cooperatives to sell fruits, vegetables and seasonal foods.

  A Six-Month Deadline

  “Vida Saludable” will become mandatory for all state schools at all levels of the national education system on March 29. Schools will have just six months to end all sales of foods and drinks that have at least one health warning label from their snack stands, or their administrators could face steep fines.

  Of course, many children bring food from home, but the government says it has no intention of sanctioning parents who put junk food in their children’s lunchboxes. Instead, it will focus on explaining the harmful effects of these foods and the importance of eating a balanced diet.

  Implementing “Vida Saludable” is likely to be difficult, however. At most of Mexico’s 255,000 public schools, free drinking water is not available to students. Since 2020, only 4% of them have managed to install drinking fountains. There are also doubts about how the government will enforce the ban on the pavements outside schools, where vendors set up stalls of goods to sell to kids at breaktime. This being Mexico, one can expect a lively black market in comida chattara to spring up in many schools. Enterprising students will no doubt get rich.

  Nonetheless, drastic steps are necessary to combat Mexico’s soaring levels of child obesity and diabetes. An estimated 5.7 Mexican million children between the ages of 5 and 11 and 10.4 million adolescents between the ages of 12 and 19 are overweight or obese. In addition, an estimated 7 out of 10 schoolchildren and 5 out of 10 adolescents are physically inactive, which further aggravates the country’s public health crisis.

  Mexico’s secretary of education blames these trends on the “high consumption of sugars”, the lack of physical activity and the food policies of previous governments, driven primarily by the profit-maximising needs of the food industry:

  “In the neoliberal era they were not concerned about this situation — on the contrary, the sale of these products was promoted and there were even campaigns against hunger promoted by the companies that produce these junk foods. The neoliberal model turned rights such as education, health and food into merchandise.”

  The Role of NAFTA

  In Mexico, obesity reached epidemic proportions after it joined NAFTA with the United States and Canada in the early 1990s, making processed food more easily available. As the New York Times reported in a 2017 investigation, the commercial opening of North America turbocharged the growth of convenience stores and US-owned fast food restaurants on Mexican soil. In addition, trade liberalisation allowed “cheap corn, meat, high-fructose corn syrup, and processed foods” from the United States to flood into Mexico.

  Diets quickly changed as many people, particularly those on lower incomes, replaced largely healthy traditional staples (corn tortilla, frijoles, Jamaica Water…) with highly processed alternatives (hotdogs, nuggets, sodas…). Granted, prior to NAFTA Mexico was already home to a burgeoning junk food industry, but what came after was on a whole different scale.

  Mexico is now the leading consumer of soft drinks in the world with an average consumption of 163 litres per person per year — 40% more than the US in second place, with 118 litres, according to a 2022 study from the University of Yale. Incredibly, there is one state in the country that consumes Coca Cola in per-capita volumes five times higher than the national average and 32 times higher than the global average: Chiapas, Mexico’s poorest state.

  “It is the epicentre of the epidemic of soft drink consumption,” Dr. Marcos Arana, a researcher at the Salvador Zubirán National Institute of Medical Sciences and Nutrition, told BBC Mundo:

  Soft drinks are already an essential part of daily life in this state, especially in the Los Altos region of Chiapas, where the majority of its population is indigenous and rural…

  “The availability and advertising of something so cheap is so great and omnipresent in Chiapas in the face of vulnerable populations that they have created an addiction that is seen as a necessity,” Arana says.

  “Residents told me that before the road to Tenejapa arrived, there was no diabetes or cardiovascular problems there. That all began when the road arrived in town and the soft drinks, the chips…”, says Jaime Page Pliego, anthropologist and co-author of the study.

  Local organizations such as the Centre for Training in Ecology and Health for Peasants (CCESC), which Arana directs, point to the “aggressive” commercial practices of soft drink companies and the easy accessibility of their products in the area as the main drivers of this excessive consumption.

  “Coca-Cola is the most available product in Los Altos, you have to walk the farther to buy tortillas or anything else. The number of points of sale is excessive, without any control, and with prices reduced by up to 30%,” says Arana.

  As sugar consumption in Mexico has soared, waistlines have exploded. In the past 20 years the number of obese and overweight people has tripled, with a staggering 75% of the population and 35% of the child population now overweight. In addition to obesity, the change in diet has contributed to diabetes becoming the second leading cause of death, after heart disease and ahead of cancer. In 2016, a state of epidemiological emergency was declared in the country due to the high rates of obesity and diabetes.

  Food Labelling, Bans on Cartoon Food Packaging…

  “Vida Saludable” is not the first step Mexico’s government has taken to try to improve Mexicans’ food habits. In October 2020, at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, the AMLO government passed one of the strictest food labelling laws on the planet. From that date, all soft drinks cans and bottles, bags of chips and other processed food packages must bear black octagonal labels warning of “EXCESS SUGAR”, “EXCESS CALORIES”, “EXCESS SODIUM”  or “EXCESS TRANS FATS” — all in big bold letters that are impossible to miss.

  Today, more than half of Mexican food and beverage products have a nutritional warning label — more than any other country in Latin America. The government also banned cartoon food packaging aimed at children.

  Mexico has prohibited cartoon mascots on unhealthy food aimed at kids. See the difference? pic.twitter.com/JYgmDh9fLu

  — El Susto (@ElSustoMovie) June 23, 2021

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  Big Food lobbies tried to block both of these measures, of course — just as they will no doubt try to block “Vida Saludable”. The Interamerican Association for the Protection of Intellectual Property and the Mexican Association for the Protection of Intellectual Property complained that food labelling was unconstitutional and violated the provisions that Mexico had signed at the international level such as the North American Free Trade Agreement — a tactic that has apparently been used in other jurisdictions where food labelling laws have been passed.

  For almost four years the lawsuits dragged on. Of the more than 100 injunctions filed by companies like Coca-Cola Femsa, PepsiCo, Group Bimbo, Hershey’s, Santa Clara, Herdez, Alimentos del Fuerte, Nutrisa and McCormick, three reached the second chamber of the Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation (SCJN), which, to its credit, ruled – by unanimous vote – that front-of-pack labelling for food and non-alcoholic beverages is a valid measure that protects people’s health and consumers’ right to information.

  The first country in Latin America to really begin tackling the public’s addiction to junk food, sugary drinks and ultra processed foods was Chile. In 2016, it passed a strict food labelling law. Like Mexico, it has also also limited cartoon food packaging, prevented schools from selling unhealthy foods, restricted TV adverts, and banned promotional toys. Over the next two years, sugary drink sales in Chile fell by 23%. According to one study, the labels reduced the likelihood of people choosing sugary breakfast cereals by 11% and sugary juices by almost 24%.

  As I wrote in 2020 for WOLF STREET, it was one of the worst possible nightmares for the junk food industry. The fact that Chile, with its population of around 20 million people, was doing it was bad enough. The prospect of something similar transpiring in Mexico, a country with a population almost seven times larger than Chile and that consumes more processed food than any other country in Latin America and more soda on a per-capita basis than any country on the planet, unnerved global food and beverage companies:

  The United States, EU, Canada and Switzerland, home to some of the world’s biggest food companies, tried to pause or derail the new legislation. But to no avail. The arrival of Covid-19, which has proven to be particularly lethal to people with three comorbidities — obesity, diabetes, and hypertension — has strengthened the government’s case and resolve.

  The [government’s labelling laws] have raised concerns that [it] is overstepping its bounds. The business lobby group Coparmex said that banning the sale of junk food and sugary drinks to minors represents a frontal attack on commercial freedom and freedom of choice. It will also have serious economic consequences for businesses in the retail sector. But those consequences are dwarfed by the economic and health impact of widespread obesity.

  Since 2020, many other countries in Latin America have introduced strict front-of-package food labelling laws, including Brazil, Argentina, Peru and Colombia. According to the Mexican online news website Sin Embargo, the labelling legislation in Mexico has had two main visible effects: the first is the reformulation of products by companies such as Bimbo, Nestlé and Kellogg’s, in an attempt to lower the concentration of ingredients that have excess sugar, fat or sodium. The second is the testimonials of consumers who claim to have reduced their consumption of products that bear health warnings on their packaging.

  A study published in June in the International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity suggests that the policy appears to be bearing fruit (pun intended). The study’s authors asked people aged 14 or over to self-report any perceived changes in their shopping habits a year after the food labelling law came into effect. More than a third of young people and almost half of adults said the labelling system had led them to reduce their purchase of various unhealthy foods. In addition, adults who reported higher water intake and lower consumption of sugary drinks said the main reason for this decision was food labelling.

  Is it any surprise that the junk food industry spent years furiously lobbying in Mexico’s Congress to block the introduction of strict and clear front-of-package food labels, and once they were finally introduced spent another four years trying to get them overturned? The lobbies will no doubt try to do the same with Mexico’s “Vida Saludable” program, just as the US’ corn and GMO lobbies are using ISDS to try to prevent Mexico from banning the use of GMO corn for direct human consumption. It is no easy task for a country to mend its eating ways these days, especially if its direct neighbour is the US of A.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/22/2024 – 17:40

• WTI Holds Gains After API Reports Crude Build, Product Draws
  WTI Holds Gains After API Reports Crude Build, Product Draws

  Oil prices rallied for a second straight day, erasing some of last week’s ugly losses, with prices supported by some upbeat prospects for Chinese demand and ongoing concerns that the Middle Eastern conflict will threaten crude flows from the region.

  “We’re seeing a constant push-pull between expectations of a cease-fire — which would unwind the geopolitical risk premium — and concerns over potential escalation,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group.

  “This environment remains highly volatile, with traders operating under low risk thresholds, contributing to significant price swings.”

  While hurricane-related effects are likely still impacting the overall data, traders are looking for any signs of real demand picking up…

  API

  • Crude +1.64mm (+800k exp)

  • Cushing -216k

  • Gasoline -2.02mm (-1.3mm exp)

  • Distillates -1.48mm (-1.6mm exp)

  While crude stocks rose (more than expected), products saw sizable drawdowns and the Cushing hub saw a return to drawdowns…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  WTI was trading around $71.50 ahead of the API print and limped lower after…

  

  Crude has been buffeted this month – with Brent fluctuating in a range of more than $11 – as the war in the Middle East raises the potential for disruptions to supplies.

  “Assuming no supply disruptions in the Middle East, the oil balance looks increasingly comfortable through 2025,” ING analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson wrote in a note.

  “With the market returning to a sizable surplus, we should at least see the front end of the curve moving into contango,” they said, referring to the market structure which indicates oversupply.

  At the same time, top importer China has moved to support growth with stimulus, but investors remain wary that the global oil market may swing to a surplus in the coming quarters.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/22/2024 – 17:20

• Record High Gold Price Signals "Fragmenting Global System"; El-Erian Warns
  Record High Gold Price Signals “Fragmenting Global System”; El-Erian Warns

  Authored by Mohammed El-Erian

  Something strange has happened to the price of gold over the past year.

  

  In setting one record level after the other, it seems to have decoupled from its traditional historical influencers, such as interest rates, inflation and the dollar. Moreover, the consistency of its rise stands in contrast to fluctuations in pivotal geopolitical situations.

  Gold’s “all-weather” characteristic signals something that goes beyond economics, politics and higher-frequency geopolitical developments. It captures an increasingly persistent behavioural trend among China and “middle power” countries, as well as others. And it is a trend that the west should be paying greater attention to.

  Over the past 12 months, the price of an ounce of gold on international markets has increased from $1,947 to $2,715, a gain of almost 40 per cent.

  Interestingly, this march up in price has been relatively linear, with any pullback attracting more buyers.

  It has occurred despite some wild swings in expected policy rates, a wide fluctuation band for benchmark US yields, falling inflation and currency volatility.

  

  Some may be tempted to dismiss gold’s performance as part of a more general increase in asset prices that, for example, has seen the US S&P index gain about 35 per cent in the past 12 months.

  Yet that correlation itself is unusual. Others will attribute it to the risk of military conflicts that have seen so many innocent civilians lose their lives and livelihoods, together with massive destruction of infrastructure. Yet the price journey suggests that there may well be a lot more going on.

  Consistent foreign central bank purchases have been an important driver of gold’s strength. Such buying seems not just related to the desire of many to gradually diversify their reserve holdings away from significant dollar dominance despite America’s “economic exceptionalism”. There is also interest in exploring possible alternatives to the dollar-based payments system that has been at the core of the international architecture for some 80 years.

  Ask why this is happening and you will normally get an answer that mentions a general loss in confidence in America’s management of the global order and two specific developments.

  You will hear about America’s weaponisation of trade tariffs and investment sanctions, together with its reduced interest in the rule-based, co-operative multilateral system that it played a pivotal role in designing 80 years ago.

  You will also hear about Russia’s ability to continue to trade and grow its economy despite some of the country’s banks being ejected in 2022 from Swift, the international system that governs the vast majority of cross-border payments. It has done this by creating a clunky trade and payments alternative system that involves a handful of other countries. While inefficient and costly, this allowed Russia to bypass the dollar and maintain a core set of international economic and financial relations.

  Then there is the aspect related to the conflict in the Middle East where the US is viewed by many as an inconsistent backer of both fundamental human rights and the application of international law.

  This perception has been amplified by how the US has shielded its main ally from a response to actions widely condemned in the international community.

  

  What is at stake here is not just the erosion of the dollar’s dominant role but also a gradual change in the operation of the global system.

  No other currency or payment system is able and willing to displace the dollar at the core of the system and there is a practical limit to reserve diversification. But an increasing number of little pipes are being built to go around this core; and a growing number of countries are interested and increasingly involved.

  What has been happening to the gold price is not just unusual in terms of traditional economic and financial influences.

  It also goes beyond strict geopolitical influences to capture a broader phenomenon which is building secular momentum.

  As it develops deeper roots, this risks materially fragmenting the global system and eroding the international influence of the dollar and the US financial system. That would have an impact on the US’s ability to inform and influence outcomes, and undermine its national security.

  It is a phenomenon that western governments should pay more attention to. And it is one where there is still time to course-correct, though not as much as some would hope.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/22/2024 – 17:00

• Xi, Putin Hail Ties As Advancing 'Fair World Order' Amid 'Chaos' Sown By Western Hegemony
  Xi, Putin Hail Ties As Advancing ‘Fair World Order’ Amid ‘Chaos’ Sown By Western Hegemony

  Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping have discussed the Ukraine war and other global issues at a meeting on the sidelines of the 16th annual BRICS Summit being held in the Russian city of Kaza, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has confirmed. Peskov hailed the bilateral meeting as “very open” and “constructive”.

  Tuesday marked the third time Putin and Xi have met face-to-face this year. But this is perhaps the most symbolic, as the BRICS forum is the biggest which presents an alternative to a Western-led world order. This was precisely a theme of Putin’s opening remarks in the Xi meeting: “Russian-Chinese cooperation in global affairs is one of the main stabilizing factors on the world stage,” he said.

  He then presented that close Moscow-Beijing ties represents the ideal of “a fair world order”—which has been a theme of Beijing’s as well of late when commenting on the imbalance of ‘Western hegemony’.

  

  “We intend to further increase coordination at all multilateral platforms in order to ensure global security and a fair world order,” Putin said.

  Xi introduced his own statements to Putin by describing that “in the context of a tectonic transformation unprecedented in centuries, the international situation is undergoing serious changes and upheavals.” He hailed positive Russia ties in a “chaotic” world.

  “But this cannot shake my conviction… in the inviolability of the deep centuries-old friendship between our countries and the inviolability of the sense of duty of China and Russia as great powers,” Xi added, based on the Kremlin transcript.

  The Chinese president said the two “explored a correct way for neighboring major powers to coexist without forming alliances, engaging in confrontation or targeting third parties” – Xinhua later added of the exchange, in what seemed an indirect swipe at NATO.

  Various Western officials and media reports have sought to downplay or even mock BRICS, but journalist Glenn Greenwald explained the following Tuesday, writing on X: “There’s Western skepticism and even mockery that this huge confederation of countries — united over perceived abuses of US/EU sanctions — could create a non-dollar system.” He continued…

  While many people in the West believe that Russia/Putin are “isolated” – because their media tells them that — two dozen world leaders are in Russia now for a 3-day BRICS conference. BRICS itself includes the two most-populous countries and 4 of the top 10 most populous.

  Beyond the founding 5 (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), it expanded to 5 more (including key US “partners” Egypt, UAE and maybe Saudi). They “account for 45% of the global population” and 28% of global economy. Key goal: a financial system independent of US dollar.

  There’s Western skepticism and even mockery that this huge confederation of countries — united over perceived abuses of US/EU sanctions — could create a non-dollar system. @TheEconomist takes it seriously.

  Either way, this is not “isolation” of Putin:https://t.co/I1poHWH27R

  — Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) October 22, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Greenwald also noted that “these countries aren’t sending emissaries or diplomats. They’re sending their top leaders. Brazil’s President Lula was long scheduled to attend, but the 78-year-old fell in the bathroom and sustained a serious head injury this week, so he couldn’t go.”

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/22/2024 – 16:40

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• NATO's Response To Russian Attack On The Baltics Could Take Days And Devastate Lithuania, War Simulation Shows
  NATO’s Response To Russian Attack On The Baltics Could Take Days And Devastate Lithuania, War Simulation Shows

  Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

  A recent war simulation reported by the German newspaper Bild has modeled the potential fallout from a Russian attack on NATO’s eastern flank, specifically targeting the Baltic states.

  

  The simulation, which explores the implications of such a conflict, highlights a worst-case scenario where NATO’s response could be delayed, leaving Lithuania and its neighbors vulnerable to a Russian advance.

  The computer-simulated wargame, developed with input from former U.S. Army Europe commander Ben Hodges and former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Philip Breedlove, envisions an attack taking place in 2027, with Russian forces launching assaults from Belarus and the Kaliningrad region, swiftly moving to occupy parts of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.

  The focus of the attack would be the strategically significant Suwałki Corridor, a 100-kilometer stretch of land connecting Kaliningrad to Belarus.

  Often dubbed “the most dangerous place on the planet,” this corridor could be used to cut off the Baltic states from the rest of NATO.

  The simulation suggests that NATO’s Article 5 – the alliance’s collective defense clause – could take several days to activate, causing delays in mobilizing support.

  As a result, Lithuania and the other Baltic states would need to face Russian forces alone for up to 10 days before NATO could deliver significant reinforcements to the region.

  During this period, NATO’s German brigade stationed in Lithuania, expected to number 5,000 troops and 44 Leopard 2 tanks by 2027, would play a crucial role.

  In the simulation, German tanks eventually halted the Russian advance within three days of deployment.

  “We need to buy as much time as possible,” explained General Breedlove.

  “First there will be air support, then the fleet, and then heavy ground troops. It would be necessary to hold positions until the arrival of large NATO forces,” he noted.

  Despite successful resistance, the damage to Lithuania would be severe, with the country left partially occupied and devastated by the end of the conflict.

  Thousands of fatalities on both sides would also be recorded in a ferocious few days of fighting.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/22/2024 – 02:00

• The Left Falsely Portrays Disinformation As The Right's Monopoly
  The Left Falsely Portrays Disinformation As The Right’s Monopoly

  Authored by Peter Berkowitz via RealClearPolitics,

  On an Oct. 13 MSNBC broadcast with anchor Jen Psaki, Democratic strategist – and former political advisor to President Bill Clinton – James Carville denounced Donald Trump for putting “the entire Constitution in jeopardy.” Carville offered a concrete example of the right’s subversion of American freedom and democracy: “The Supreme Court and Clarence Thomas have totally greenlighted the idea that you could round up, use the military to round up your political enemies.” A former political advisor to Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden, Psaki replied with a smile, “We love the truth telling.”

  

  Carville and Psaki are typical. The left often portrays itself as the rigorous defender of truth against relentless right-wing disinformation while resolutely promoting progressive disinformation, including the falsehood that disinformation is a distinctively right-wing phenomenon.

  Small wonder that Carville did not elaborate on his extraordinary accusation, and that Psaki did not ask why he singled out Justice Thomas or how the Supreme Court authorized the rounding up of political enemies. Perhaps Carville had in mind the court’s holding last July in Trump v. United States “that the President is absolutely immune from criminal prosecution for conduct within his exclusive sphere of constitutional authority.” But the Constitution does not give the president authority to round up political enemies.

  Did Carville glibly attack Trump and did Psaki politely play along? Did partisan rage distort Carville’s judgment as well as Psaki’s? Did Carville resolve to assert – and Psaki to endorse – whatever it takes, including nightmare scenarios, to protect democracy from Trump?

  It is hard to read hearts and minds. But one can confidently affirm that deceiving about politics is as old as politics.

  Circumstances change. Regimes come and go. Empires rise and fall. Parties win and lose. Yet even as modernization and technology revolutionize human affairs by generating material abundance, destabilizing settled expectations, and eroding inherited understandings, human beings remain social and political animals. Individuals need one another’s company and cooperation while – given diverse backgrounds, disposition, abilities, and interests – differing over what is useful, just, and good. Some strive to exercise power over others while most try to minimize the power that others exercise over them. Through it all, passion and prejudice constantly buffet everyone’s reasoning, and auspicious opportunities and dire predicaments tempt even the virtuous to portray the facts as other than they are.

  No doubt novel opportunities abound today for promulgating lies and disseminating the family of departures from the truth that human beings routinely produce, distribute, consume, and rail against. In particular, the Internet, digital communications, and social media have facilitated the acquisition and transmission of immense amounts of information. This has greatly increased the quantity and accelerated the velocity of casual errors, self-deceptions, well-meaning half-truths, fraudulently marketed opinions and ideas, and outright lies that swirl through political culture.

  Both right and left in America partake of the free-for-all of duplicity – often crude, occasionally artful – that plagues American politics. There is, however, an asymmetry.

  Both sides insist that the other is exclusively at fault for the decay of public discourse. But the left controls the commanding heights of education, mainstream and social media, and government bureaucracy.

  The left’s false contention that the right exercises a monopoly on manipulation, deceit, and falsehood is particularly damaging because the left amplifies its accusation through domination of the nation’s communication, elite opinion formation, and rule-making and law-enforcement institutions. This substantial advantage in the struggle to shape public opinion encourages the left’s sense of superiority while blinding progressives to their own intellectual subterfuges and ideological swindles. It also foments outrage on the right. Conservatives justify their extreme statements and outrageous claims as playing by progressives’ rules.

  Atlantic staff writer Charlie Warzel recently illustrated the left’s propensity to wrongly present disinformation as a specifically right-wing pathology. Author of “Galaxy Brain,” The Atlantic’s newsletter “about technology, media, and big ideas,” Warzel argues in “I’m Running Out of Ways to Explain How Bad This Is” that an unprecedented assault on truth has “been building for more than a decade.” The crisis stems, he maintains, from a calamitous combination of right-wing extremism and digital technology that breaks reality into two – a world of truth inhabited by the left and a world of “dark” falsehoods that the right creates, outfits, and calls home.

  “This reality-fracturing is the result of an information ecosystem that is dominated by platforms that offer financial and attentional incentives to lie and enrage, and to turn every tragedy and large event into a shameless content-creation opportunity,” writes Warzel. “This collides with a swath of people who would rather live in an alternate reality built on distrust and grievance than change their fundamental beliefs about the world.”

  Warzel would have placed his analysis of just how badly political discourse in America has deteriorated on much sounder footing if he had recognized that the left also employs digital technology to fabricate and maintain a separate world. In the left’s alternative reality, the remorseless siege of systemic racism, sexism, and other sinister forms of oppression obliges progressives to abandon basic requirements of evidence and argument to rally the faithful and save the nation and the world.

  Responses to Hurricanes Helene and Milton, maintains Warzel, have set a new low. “Even in a decade marred by online grifters, shameless politicians, and an alternative right-wing-media complex pushing anti-science fringe theories,” he writes, “the events of the past few weeks stand out for their depravity and nihilism.” He gives chilling examples careening around the Internet of harebrained conspiracy theories about government malfeasance and implausible stories of official neglect, or deliberate disregard, of storm victims that have delayed the delivery of essential government services. These remind that people can easily dupe others and be duped, especially when hurricane season coincides with election season, and individuals are armed with smart phones and social media accounts, and distrust elite institutions.

  Warzel is rightly alarmed that “Americans are divided not just by political beliefs but by whether they believe in a shared reality – or desire one at all.” But his one-sided analysis inadvertently underscores that fault for the splintering of America does not lie solely with Trump and his backers.

  Or even primarily.

  Yes, Jan. 6, 2021, was a disgrace. Yes, right-wing rhetoric can be ridiculous, ominous, and vile. And yes, right-wing activists also exploit the Internet to stoke grievance and stir up resentment and rage.

  Still, progressives tend to neglect that Trump and his voters have reasons, accumulating for decades, for distrusting institutions fundamental to the nation’s security, prosperity, and freedom and dominated by progressives: universities, the mainstream media and social media, and the federal bureaucracy.

  Contrary to the common view on the left that Trump inaugurated a war on truth, our universities have for at least two generations sought to emancipate students from the traditional understanding that higher education’s purpose is to pursue knowledge and cultivate independent minds. Instead, through a succession of intellectual fashions and fads – including positivism, relativism, postmodernism, deconstruction, multiculturalism, identity politics, and intersectionality – universities have fostered the incoherent and partisan belief that since moral values are socially constructed, progressive policies must prevail.

  Meanwhile, our progressive media – mainstream and social – and our progressive federal bureaucracy have collaborated to promote progressive national narratives by censoring opinions that challenge the progressive perspective and weaponizing the law against those who oppose progressivism’s hegemony.

  The most egregious such collaboration revolved around the charge – widely presented as established fact by the press, defeated candidate Hillary Clinton, and elected Democratic officials and progressive intellectuals – that Donald Trump conspired with Russia to steal the 2016 election. This weighed down President Trump and hampered his administration. Yet after a two-year investigation, Special Counsel Robert Mueller, whose team contained several experienced and high-powered Democratic lawyers, issued a lengthy report stating that the investigation “did not establish that the Trump campaign coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities.”

  Another disreputable collaboration to advance progressive ends sought to push Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden over the finish line in November 2020. A few weeks before the election, the New York Post accurately reported that a laptop containing incriminating evidence belonged to Joe Biden’s son Hunter. The mainstream media, social media, and the FBI censored the Post’s reporting while disseminating the falsehood that the computer was a product of Russian disinformation.

  A third major collaboration occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic. The New York Times and the Washington Post derided the notion that the virus leaked from a Chinese lab, which it likely did, and government officials, led by Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Francis Collins, suppressed the lab-leak hypothesis. In addition, the mainstream media, social media, and federal government teamed up to discredit and silence those who raised questions about the efficacy of masks, lockdowns, and vaccines.

  To do their share to arrest the splintering of America, progressives must do more than profess their love of the truth. They must act like they mean it.

  Peter Berkowitz is the Tad and Dianne Taube senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. From 2019 to 2021, he served as director of the Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. State Department. His writings are posted at PeterBerkowitz.com and he can be followed on X @BerkowitzPeter.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/21/2024 – 23:25

• Hurricane Helene's Political Disaster
  Hurricane Helene’s Political Disaster

  Authored by Ryan Bonifay via RealClearPolitics,

  Hurricane Helene devastated large swaths of western North Carolina, with entire towns wiped away or forever altered. The human disaster will be felt for decades. But there’s another impending disaster no one is talking about – a political one.

  

  North Carolina is a perennial swing state with a penchant for split-ticket voting. In 2020, Donald Trump won the state by less than 1.5 percentage points. In 2008, Barack Obama clinched the state for the Democrats by a mere 14,000 votes out of 4.3 million votes. This year, North Carolina is once again a battleground state, with both political parties spending hundreds of millions of dollars, and both presidential nominees are spending significant time here. In the Tar Heel State, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are literally fighting for every single vote.

  But Hurricane Helene didn’t just wipe out towns. It may also wipe out people’s right to vote. Tens of thousands of voters are homeless or temporarily camped out far from their homes. While the North Carolina Board of Elections is tweaking rules to make it easier to vote, residents in the most severely damaged areas probably have other, bigger problems on their minds – like missing relatives, lost livelihoods, children who can’t go to school, filing insurance claims, just to name a few. The last thing on their to-do lists is remembering to reregister to vote at their new address before Oct. 6, which has since come and gone. 

  There is an unspoken question that needs to be voiced: What happens if hundreds of thousands of voters in western North Carolina can’t vote in the 2024 election?

  The disaster declaration in western North Carolina encompasses 25 counties, comprising 1.3 million registered voters, of which 974,514 voted for president in 2020.

  Currently, registered Republicans make up 37.9% of western North Carolina voters compared to 28.2% in the rest of the state. Registered Democrats make up only 22.8% of western North Carolina voters compared to 33.2% in the rest of the state. In 2020, Trump won 604,119 votes to Joe Biden’s 356,902 votes in those 25 counties. 

  In other words, western North Carolina is Republican country, even with deep blue Asheville sitting in the heart of the mountains. In the closest election in recent history, Republicans don’t have 600,000 votes to spare.

  In order for a Republican candidate to have a fighting chance of winning statewide in North Carolina, they have to drive up their margin of victory in the western part of the state. Since 2016, Republican presidential and Senate candidates have won by a margin of 23.4% to 27.9% in western North Carolina. In those same elections, all Republicans (Trump, Tillis, Budd), except former Sen. Richard Burr, also lost the rest of the state.

  Compare those margins to losing Republican candidates. In 2016, the incumbent governor, Pat McCrory, won western North Carolina by 19.3%. Four years later, Republican Dan Forest only eked out an 18.7% margin in the west. McCrory lost the rest of the state by 4.4%, and Forest lost it by 9.5%.

  In other words, statewide Republicans can’t win North Carolina without soaking up every red vote to the west.

  As of Oct. 7, absentee ballot requests in western North Carolina totaled 46,094, accounting for 15.7% of statewide requests. Some of those ballots will never reach their intended recipients. That is concerning, but the bigger impact will come from in-person early voting, slated to begin October 17. In 2020, 70% of Trump’s vote in western North Carolina came from in-person early voting sites. It is not yet clear how many early voting sites are damaged, but the wide expanse of Helene’s damage suggests it will be significant. According to Axios, “infrastructure, accessibility to voting sites, and postal services remain severely disrupted” in 13 counties, accounting for 552,514 registered voters.

  With North Carolina growing increasingly close, hundreds of thousands of Tar Heel voters who are unable to vote could doom Republicans chances here – and nationwide – over the next 27 days. While it is possible for Trump to win 270 electoral votes while losing North Carolina, it makes a narrow path to the White House that much narrower.

  Playing around with the electoral map produces a number of scenarios in which Trump comes short of 270 electoral votes without North Carolina. One scenario gives Trump Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania while losing Wisconsin, Michigan, and North Carolina. He loses that election 265 to 273.

  Getting western North Carolina back on its feet has to be the priority for the federal and state governments. However, with such an important election at our doorstep, it would be irresponsible to ignore the political implications of this historic disaster. It’s not just about disenfranchising voters – which is important enough.

  Imagine for a moment that this election comes down to a razor-thin margin in storm-torn North Carolina. Allegations start flying – about lost ballots, late ballots, ballots sent to the wrong precincts, etc. It will be Florida circa 2000 on steroids, and nobody wants to go through that again. Our country is already fraying at the seams with little trust in our democratic institutions. Talk about throwing a match into a powder keg.

  To prevent this election outcome from being dictated by a 100-year storm, it is incumbent on the Board of Elections to do absolutely everything in its power to make sure western North Carolinians, especially those in rural and most isolated parts of the impacted area, have every opportunity to cast their ballots. It’s also incumbent on Republicans to start tackling this problem now. Don’t wait until Nov. 6 to sound the alarm.

  No one wants to politicize a storm that has destroyed so many lives, but that’s exactly what will happen if we don’t get this right.

  Ryan Bonifay is the director of data & analytics at ColdSpark and lives in Lexington, North Carolina. Bonifay has worked and served as data director for several campaigns and organizations across the southeast, including the Republican National Committee, Engage Texas, Texans for Greg Abbott, and former U.S. Senator David Perdue.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/21/2024 – 23:00

• FBI Believes US Intel Leak On Israel Was Likely A Government Insider, Not Hacking
  FBI Believes US Intel Leak On Israel Was Likely A Government Insider, Not Hacking

  The FBI and the Department of Defense are scrambling to uncover how it was that two highly classified intelligence documents related to Israel’s preparation for a potential retaliatory attack on Iran appeared on a Middle East news-related Telegram channel days ago.

  The White House has described President Biden as “deeply concerned” over the serious breach, and has confirmed there is an intense investigation ongoing to ascertain how it happened and who had access.

  

  At this point it’s not even confirmed whether the documents were made public via a hack or a leak by an individual who had access to them.

  The documents were produced by the US National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and National Security Agency, and were marked “Top Secret” and restricted from distribution from most foreign allies, with the exception of countries belonging to the “Five Eyes”.

  The White House also said Monday that at this point officials do not believe that more documents were breached beyond the two which were made public.

  CNN meanwhile reports that investigators currently believe the intel docs were leaked by someone within the US intelligence community:

  The FBI is leading the investigation, working with Pentagon investigators and the intelligence community, according to US officials briefed on the matter.

  In recent days, investigators have worked to authenticate the documents and determine who could have had access to them, the officials said.

  That focus is one indication that, for now, the FBI and other investigators are working off the theory that the breach most likely came from a government insider and not from a cyber intrusion.

  Statements attributed to the FBI further suggest authorities are getting close to tracking down the culprit. While both documents were available among a relatively large pool of US intelligence analysts and officials, CNN has noted that one of them appears to have been scanned from a printed briefing book.

  “That could provide investigators with a critical jumping-off point: The Defense Department, like other federal agencies, tracks when employees print classified documents. The pool of people who printed these pages would be relatively small, these sources said,” CNN details.

  Another statement by the Telegram channel rejects claims made by Axios and Jerusalem Post that the group is “Iran-affiliated”. And more info on how the leak originated: pic.twitter.com/EJdiLBGyx7

  — Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) October 20, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  This is precisely how US Air Force veteran and former NSA translator Reality Winner got caught. She printed a single classified document from her work computer, and then anonymously mailed it to The Intercept. It was an NSA document related to alleged ‘Russian interference’ in the 2016 United States elections, which involved some phishing scams and efforts at breaching voting software. The document itself was relatively vague. Government investigators were able to very quickly determine which printer was used, and which NSA employee viewed it.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/21/2024 – 22:35

• US House Task Force Finds 1st Trump Assassination Attempt Was 'Preventable'
  US House Task Force Finds 1st Trump Assassination Attempt Was ‘Preventable’

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The House task force investigating the July 13 assassination attempt targeting former President Donald Trump concluded that the incident was “preventable,” releasing new testimony from local law enforcement officials who provided accounts of communications and operational failures at the rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.

  

  Released on Monday, the report concluded that there was a “lack of planning and coordination” between the U.S. Secret Service and its local law enforcement partners during the Trump rally.

  The Secret Service, it found, “did not give clear guidance to the relevant state and local agencies about managing areas outside the secure event perimeter, and there was no joint meeting on the day of the rally between [the Secret Service] and all state and local law enforcement agencies assisting” the federal agency.

  Monday’s House task force report mostly echoes findings made by the Senate Homeland Security panel report and an internal Secret Service report, both of which were released in September.

  The report included findings that were already publicly released. But the report contained new interviews with local law enforcement officials in Butler County on how the Secret Service failed to perform on July 13.

  Unnamed officials in Butler provided more details on how the gunman was first spotted by law enforcement and that nothing was done until he opened fire upon the rally, clipping Trump’s right ear with a bullet while killing a rally-goer and severely injuring two others.

  As one example, one emergency services official told the panel that he sent a text message to his colleague that the shooter was seen with a rangefinder at around 5:17 p.m. However, the colleague did not see the message until more than 20 minutes later, at around 5:40 p.m.

  The report also included new testimony from the officer who attempted to climb on the roof of the building where the gunman had perched before he opened fire. Days after the shooting, local officials confirmed that an officer tried to get on the roof but that the shooter pointed his weapon at him, forcing the officer to back down.

  Police body-camera footage was also released of the incident, showing the officer getting a boost from another law enforcement official in a bid to climb on the roof. The shooter could not be seen in that clip.

  That unnamed official told the panel that as he attempted to move his way onto the roof, the gunman “slowly turned on his waist” and “slowly turned around.”

  “And as I came up, that’s when he pointed his firearm in my face,” the official said. “And at that time, I could see, you know, he had a bookbag with him, I could see mags (gun magazines).

  “I knew he had a long gun, like an AR-platform. And as I’m coming up and he’s got the gun pointed at me, I don’t know if I reach for my gun, if I slip, but all I know from that point is I’m looking at him, and all my weight is on my, like, arms, my hands, and I don’t have a grip.”

  The officer added, “The next thing I know, I smack against the ground and fall.”

  “I just start yelling out to the guys that are there, I yell on the radio right away,” the official added. “I start saying, you know, South end, He’s got a long gun. Male on the roof. I just kept repeating, He’s got a gun. He’s got a long gun. I’m telling the guys that are around, like, he’s right up there, guns up, eyes up, still screaming on the radio.”

  Overall, local and state law enforcement officials who spoke to the House panel were largely critical of the lack of a unified command and communications post to oversee security at the Trump event.

  They also said that there was no unified briefing between the federal and local partners that could “have led to gaps in awareness among state and local law enforcement partners as to who was stationed where, spheres of responsibility, and expectations regarding communications during the day,” according to the report.

  The Secret Service has not issued a comment on the House panel’s report. The Epoch Times contacted the agency but received no response by publication time.

  The acting director of the Secret Service in August conceded that the agency failed in its mission to protect Trump during the rally, did not properly secure the rally site, and that several agency staffers would face punishment over the incident.

  Two months later, federal law enforcement officials said that Trump was the target of a second assassination attempt, this time at his Florida golf course while he was golfing. The Secret Service said that an agent who was protecting Trump saw the barrel of a rifle sticking out of a perimeter fence on Sept. 15 before he engaged with the suspect and opened fire, prompting him to flee.

  Ryan Wesley Routh was later arrested and charged with multiple felony counts in connection to the incident and has pleaded not guilty. Prosecutors say that Routh had authored a note that indicated he wanted to assassinate the former president.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/21/2024 – 21:45

• Girl Scout Dues Could Rise As Much As 240% Next Year
  Girl Scout Dues Could Rise As Much As 240% Next Year

  So much for 2% inflation…

  The Girl Scouts could be forced to raise yearly membership from $25 to $85, according to a new report from Fox News. That marks a rise of 240%, for those of you keeping inflation score at home. 

  Girl Scouts of the USA President Noorain Khan and CEO Bonnie Barczykowski said this week: “We have collectively acknowledged that a membership dues increase is needed which is greater than the 25 percent (or $6.25) the National Board has authority to approve in a single triennium.”

  “Over the past few years, costs have increased everywhere, and neither GSUSA nor our councils have been immune to this pressure,” it continued. “Operating at a deficit — spending more than we bring in — as we have been doing, is not sustainable.”

  The statement continues: “We can no longer afford to use our financial reserves, and we cannot pass through all escalating costs to our councils.”

  

  It says: “The additional revenue generated by national annual membership dues of $85 for girls and $45 for adults will enable all of us, together, to deliver our Movement strategy.”

  The Fox News report says that Girl Scouts membership has declined in recent years, partly due to the pandemic. Meanwhile, the Boy Scouts, now Scouting America, began accepting girls in 2018.

  The Girl Scouts ended the 2023 fiscal year with a $4.4 million deficit, which is projected to grow to $5.6 million by the end of 2024.

  Girl Scout troop leader Sally Bertram commented: “I just feel like a triple jump in numbers is going to dissolve the Girl Scouts in southeast Indiana. People out here do not pay that kind of money.”

  “I think that these girls could lose a lifetime of experiences,” she continued. 

  In a statement to Fox, Girl Scouts said: “Ensuring that Girl Scouts can be here for girls (now and in the future) requires financial resources. Girl Scouts has not raised membership dues in over 8 years.”

  “This is not a decision we take lightly, which is why 900 delegates representing Girl Scouts’ membership are coming together to weigh options and vote to ensure that Girl Scouts thrive and that, most importantly, every girl has access to the Girl Scout experience so desperately needed today.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/21/2024 – 21:20

• Ron Paul: Why Should We Fight Wars For Ukraine And Israel?
  Ron Paul: Why Should We Fight Wars For Ukraine And Israel?

  Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute,

  When you take on the role of the world’s policeman, don’t be surprised when countries who cannot fight their own wars call “911.”

  That is exactly what is happening to the United States on two fronts and it is bankrupting our country, depleting the military that should serve our own national interest, and threatening to drag the US into World War III.

  

  Last week, Ukraine’s “president” Vladimir Zelensky publicly presented his “Victory Plan.”

  It was delusional: immediate NATO Membership for Ukraine, NATO strikes against incoming Russian missiles, and permission to use Western long-range missiles for strikes deep into Russia including Moscow and St. Petersburg.

  The real intent was not hard to understand.

  Ukraine is on the verge of losing its war with Russia and is desperate to draw the United States military into the fight. There were numerous opportunities to avoid this bloody war but at every step the Ukrainian leadership listened to western neocons (like Boris Johnson) and decided to keep fighting Russia down to the last Ukrainian.

  But now that they are nearly down to the last Ukrainian, they are calling on us to step in and fight the country with the most nuclear weapons on earth -Russia – in a battle that could not be more unrelated to our actual interests.

  Washington’s answer should be simple but firm:

  “No more weapons, no more money. You’re on your own. Make peace.”

  Would the US be mortally wounded if the people in Eastern Ukraine were allowed to secede from Kiev and join Russia?

  Would anyone except the Russia-obsessed neocons in DC think tanks even notice?

  Likewise with Israel.

  Tel Aviv has, in response to the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, launched a war to annihilate Palestinians from Gaza, invade and occupy southern Lebanon, degrade the military of Iraq and Syria, and take on Iran. But the Israeli military has nowhere near the capacity to fight so many wars on so many fronts, so it has increasingly demanded US involvement in the conflicts. Already the US has provided some $23 billion in additional military aid to Israel and has employed US military assets in the region to shoot down missiles and provide increased weapons and intelligence.

  But it’s still not enough for Israel. To fight Iran, with its significant military capabilities, Israel appears desperate to drag the US military into the battle. The stationing of one or perhaps two THAAD air defense systems, each with 100 US troops to operate them, is part of that effort. These 100-200 US troops are illegally engaged in combat, but what’s worse is that they are being used as a tripwire. US and Israeli leaders understand that they will be considered legitimate targets for any additional Iranian missile attack, but as soon as American troops start getting killed in Israel there will be a massive push for further US involvement. Imagine the mainstream media war propaganda if such a terrible thing happens.

  That is no way to use members of the US armed services. It is the opposite of supporting our troops.

  Washington’s response to Israel trying to drag us into its war with Iran should be just like with Ukraine:

  “No more weapons, no more money. You’re on your own. Make peace.”

  That is what a pro-America foreign policy looks like. Our Founders understood it very well and wrote about it often.

  It’s called “non-intervention.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/21/2024 – 20:55

• Visualizing The Rise Of Antibiotic Resistance
  Visualizing The Rise Of Antibiotic Resistance

  Bacterial infections are becoming more dangerous.

  When you’re fighting a bacterial infection, a doctor will typically prescribe you an antibiotic to help you recover. Unfortunately, rising antibiotic resistance means these drugs are becoming less effective.

  In part one of this series on antimicrobial resistance, Visual Capitalist’s Jenna Ross partnered with the MSCI Sustainability Institute to highlight the increase in bacteria’s resistance to antibiotics.

  

  What is Antibiotic Resistance?

  Antibiotic resistance happens when bacteria evolve and become resistant to the drugs used to treat them. To some extent, this occurs naturally due to genetic changes in pathogens. 

  However, people have misused and overused drugs to prevent, control, and treat infections in humans, animals, and plants. This is the primary cause of more resistant bacteria.

  Resistance Rates Over Time

  Based on the latest available data, the resistance rates of key antibiotics increased from about 16% in 2001 to 44% in 2020. In other words, nearly half of infections are not responsive to the antibiotics typically used to treat them. 

  Unfortunately, the majority of experts believe that some of these key antibiotics—including amoxicillin and cephalexin, some of the most prescribed drugs in the U.S.—will very likely be lost to resistance within the next 15 years.

  The Impact of Antibiotic Resistance

  With treatments no longer working for illnesses like pneumonia or urinary tract infections in some cases, the risk of disease and death increases. Every year, antibiotic resistance directly leads to nearly 1.3 million deaths.

  On top of this, rising resistance creates investment threats. For instance, companies failing to address antimicrobial resistance might face reputational damage. However, there are also opportunities for investors when it comes to the development of new antibiotics and alternative treatments.

  In the second part of this series, we highlight the gap between infection-related deaths and research efforts. 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/21/2024 – 20:30

• The Neo-Liberal Consensus Is Coming Apart
  The Neo-Liberal Consensus Is Coming Apart

  Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

  The global Covid response was the turning point in public trust, economic vitality, citizen health, free speech, literacy, religious and travel freedom, elite credibility, demographic longevity, and so much more. Now five years following the initial spread of the virus that provoked the largest-scale despotisms of our lives, something else seems to be biting the dust: the postwar neo-liberal consensus itself. 

  

  The world as we knew it only a decade ago is on fire, precisely as Henry Kissinger warned in one of his last published articles. Nations are erecting new trade barriers and dealing with citizen uprisings like we’ve never seen before, some peaceful, some violent, and most that could go either way. On the other side of this upheaval lies the answer to the great question: what does political revolution look like in advanced industrial economies with democratic institutions? We are in the process of finding out. 

  Let’s take a quick march through modern history through the lens of US-China relations.

  From the time of China’s opening in the 1980s to the election of Donald Trump in 2016, the volume of trade imports from China only grew, decade after decade. It was the most conspicuous sign of a general trajectory toward globalism that began following the Second World War and accelerated with the end of the Cold War. Tariffs and trade barriers fell ever more, as dollars as the world reserve currency filled the coffers of world central banks. The US was the global source of liquidity that made it all possible. 

  It came at a huge cost, however, as the US through the decades lost its manufacturing advantages in dozens of industries that once defined the American commercial experience. Watches and clocks, pianos, furniture, textiles, clothing, steel, tools, shipbuilding, toys, household appliances, home electronics, and semiconductors all left US shores while other industries are on the rocks, most especially cars. Today, the much-celebrated “green energy” industries seem fated to be outcompeted as well. 

  These industries came to be largely replaced by debt-financed financial products, the explosion of the government-backed medical sector, information systems, entertainment, and government-funded education, while the primary exports of the US became debt and petroleum products. 

  Many forces combined to sweep Donald Trump into office in 2016 but resentment against the internationalization of manufacturing was high among them. As financialization replaced domestic manufacturing, and class mobility stagnated, a political alignment took shape in the US that stunned the elites. Trump got busy on his pet issue, namely erecting trade barriers against countries with whom the US was running trade deficits, primarily China. 

  By 2018, and in response to new tariffs, the volume of trade with China took its first huge hit, reversing not only a 40-year trajectory of growth but also dealing the first the biggest blow against the 70-year postwar consensus of the neo-liberal world. Trump was doing it largely on his own initiative and against the wishes of many generations of statesmen, diplomats, academics, and corporate elites. 

  Then something happened to reverse the reversal. That something was the Covid response. In Jared Kushner’s telling (Breaking History), he went to his father-in-law following the lockdowns and said:

   We’re scrambling to find supplies all over the world. Right now, we have enough to get through the next week—maybe two—but after that it could get really ugly really fast. The only way to solve the immediate problem is to get the supplies from China. Would you be willing to speak to President Xi to de-escalate the situation?

  “Now is not a time to be proud,” said Trump. “I hate that we are in this position, but let’s set it up.”

  It’s impossible to imagine the pain that decision must have caused Trump because this move meant a repudiation of all that he believed in foundationally and all that he set out to accomplish as president. 

  Kushner writes:

  I reached out to Chinese ambassador Cui Tiankai and proposed that the two leaders talk. Cui was keen on the idea, and we made it happen. When they spoke, Xi was quick to describe the steps China had taken to mitigate the virus. Then he expressed concern over Trump referring to COVID-19 as the ‘China Virus.’ Trump agreed to refrain from calling it that for the time being if Xi would give the United States priority over others to ship supplies out of China. Xi promised to cooperate. From that point forward, whenever I called Ambassador Cui with a problem, he sorted it out immediately.

  What was the result? Trade with China soared. Within a matter of weeks, Americans were wearing Chinese-made synthetic coverings on their faces, having their noses stuck with Chinese-made swabs, and being tended to by nurses and doctors wearing Chinese-made scrubs. 

  The chart on China’s trade volume looks like this. You can observe the long rise, the dramatic fall from 2018, and the reversal in the volume of PPE purchases following the lockdowns and Kushner’s interventions. The reversal did not last long as trade relations broke down and new trade blocs were born. 

  

  The irony, then, is a salient one: the aborted attempt to restart the neo-liberal order, if that is what it was, occurred in the midst of a global bout of totalitarian controls and restrictions. To what extent were the Covid lockdowns deployed in service of resisting Trump’s decoupling agenda? We have no answers to that question but observing the pattern does leave room for speculation. 

  Regardless, the trends of 70 years came to be reversed, landing the US in new times, described by the Wall Street Journal in the event of a Trump victory in 2024: 

  If it turns out that the tariff on China is 60% and the rest of the world is 10%, the U.S.’ average tariff, weighted by the value of imports, would leap to 17% from 2.3% in 2023, and 1.5% in 2016, according to Evercore ISI, an investment bank. That would be the highest since the Great Depression, after Congress passed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act (1932), which triggered a global surge in trade barriers. U.S. tariffs would go from among the lowest to highest among major economies. If other countries retaliated, the rise in global trade barriers would have no modern precedent.

  Talk of the Smoot-Hawley tariff really does plunge us into the wayback machine. Back in those days, trade policy in the US followed the US Constitution (Article I, Section 8). The original system granted Congress the power to regulate commerce with foreign nations, among other powers. This was intended to keep trade policy within the legislative branch to ensure democratic accountability. As a result, Congress responded to the economic/financial crisis by imposing huge barriers against imports. The Depression worsened. 

  It was a widely accepted belief among many in elite circles that the 1932 tariffs were a factor in the deepening of the economic downturn. Two years later, efforts began to transfer trade authority to the executive so that the legislature would never do something so stupid again. The theory was that the president would be more likely to pursue a free-trade, low-tariff policy. That generation never imagined that the US would elect a president who would use his power to do the opposite. 

  In the waning days of the Second World War, a group of extremely smart and well-intended diplomats, statesmen, and intellectuals worked to secure the peace in the aftermath of the wreckage in Europe and around the world. They all agreed that a priority in the postwar world was to institutionalize economic cooperation as broadly as possible, under the theory that nations that are dependent on each other for their material well-being were less likely to go to war against each other. 

  Thus was born what came to be called the neo-liberal order. It consisted of democratic nations with limited welfare states cooperating in trading relationships with ever-lower barriers between states. In particular, the tariff was deprecated as a means of fiscal support and industrial protection. New agreements and institutions were founded to be the administrators of the new system: GATT, IMF, World Bank, and the UN. 

  The neo-liberal order was never liberal in the traditional sense. It was managed from the outset by states under US dominance. The architecture was always more fragile than it appeared to be. The Bretton Woods agreement of 1944, tightened through the decades, involved nascent institutions of global banking and included a US-managed monetary system that broke down in 1971 and was replaced by a fiat-dollar system. The flaw in both systems had a similar root. They established global money but retained national fiscal and regulatory systems, which thereby disabled the specie-flow mechanisms that smoothed and balanced trade in the 19th century. 

  One of the consequences was the manufacturing losses mentioned above, which coincided with a growing public perception that the institutions of government and finance were operating without transparency and citizen participation. The ballooning of the security state after 9-11 and the stunning bailouts of Wall Street after 2008 reinforced the point and set the stage for a populist revolt. The lockdowns – disproportionately benefitting elites – plus the burning of cities with the riots of the summer of 2020, the vaccine mandates, and combined with the onset of a migrant crisis, reinforced the point. 

  In the US, the panic and frenzy all surround Trump but that leaves unexplained why almost every Western country is dealing with the same dynamic. Today the core political fight in the world today concerns nation-states and the populist movements driving them versus the kind of globalism that brought a worldwide response to the virus as well as the worldwide migrant crisis. Both efforts failed spectacularly, most especially the attempt to vaccinate the entire population with a shot that is only defended today by manufacturers and those in their pay. 

  The problem of migration plus pandemic planning are only two of the latest data points but they both suggest an ominous reality of which many people in the world are newly aware. The nation-states that have dominated the political landscape since the Renaissance, and even back in some cases to the ancient world, had given way to a form of government we can call globalism. It doesn’t refer only to trade across borders. It is about political control, away from citizens in countries toward something else that citizens cannot control or influence.

  From the time of the Treaty of Westphalia, signed in 1648, the idea of state sovereignty prevailed in politics. Not every nation needed the same policies. They would respect differences toward the goal of peace. This involved permitting religious diversity among nation-states, a concession that led to an unfolding of freedom in other ways. All governance came to be organized around geographically restricted zones of control. 

  The juridical boundaries restrained power. The idea of consent gradually came to dominate political affairs from the 18th through the 19th century until after the Great War which dismantled the last of the multinational empires. That left us with one model: the nation-state in which citizens exercised ultimate sovereignty over the regimes under which they live. The system worked but not everyone has been happy with it.

  Some of the most high-status intellectuals for centuries have dreamed of global government as a solution to the diversity of policies of nation-states. It’s the go-to idea for scientists and ethicists who are so convinced of the correctness of their ideas that they dream up some worldwide imposition of their favored solution. Humanity has by and large been wise enough not to attempt such a thing beyond military alliances and mechanisms to improve trade flows.

  Despite the failure of global management last century, in the 21st century, we’ve seen the intensification of the power of globalist institutions. The World Health Organization (WHO) effectively scripted the pandemic response for the world. Globalist foundations and NGOs seem to be heavily involved in the migrant crisis. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, created as nascent institutions for a global system of money and finance, are exercising outsized influence on monetary and financial policy. The World Trade Organization (WTO) is working to diminish the power of the nation-state over trade policies.

  Then there is the United Nations. I happened to be in New York City a few weeks ago when the United Nations met. No question that it was the biggest show on planet Earth. Vast swaths of the city were shut down to cars and buses, with diplomats and heavy-hitting financiers arriving via helicopter on the roofs of luxury hotels, all of which were full for the week of meetings. The prices of everything were jacked up in response since no one was spending his own money in any case.

  The attendees were not only statesmen from all over the world but also the biggest financial firms and media outfits, along with representatives of the largest universities and nonprofits. All of these forces seem to be coalescing at once, as if they all want to be part of the future. And that future is one of global governance wherein the nation-state is eventually reduced to pure cosmetics with no operational power.

  The impression I had while there was that the experience of everyone in town that day, all swarming around the big United Nations meeting, was one of deep separation of their world from the world of the rest of us. They are “bubble people.” Their friends, source of financing, social groupings, career aspirations, and major influence are detached not only from normal people but from the nation-state itself. The fashionable attitude among them all is to regard the nation-state and its history of meaning as passe, fictional, and rather embarrassing.

  Entrenched globalism of the sort that operates in the 21st century represents a shift against and repudiation of half a millennium of the way governance has worked in practice. The United States was initially established as a country of localized democracies that only came together under a loose confederation. The Articles of Confederation created no central government but rather deferred to the former colonies to set up (or continue) their own structures of governance. When the Constitution came along, it created a careful equilibrium of checks and balances to restrain the national state while preserving the rights of the states. The idea here was not to overthrow citizen control over the nation-state but institutionalize it.

  All these years later, most people in most nations, the United States especially, believe that they should have final say over the structure of the regime. This is the essence of the democratic ideal, and not as an end in itself but as a guarantor of freedom, which is the principle that drives the rest. Freedom is inseparable from citizen control of government. When that link and that relationship are shattered, freedom itself is gravely damaged.

  The world today is packed with wealthy institutions and individuals that stand in revolt against the ideas of freedom and democracy. They do not like the idea of geographically constrained states with zones of juridical power. They believe they have a global mission and want to empower global institutions against the sovereignty of people living in nation-states.

  They say that there are existential problems that require the overthrow of the nation-state model of governance. They have a list: infectious disease, pandemic threats, climate change, peacekeeping, cybercrime, financial stability, and the threat of instability, and I’m sure there are others on the list that we’ve yet to see. The idea is that these are necessarily worldwide and evade the capacity of the nation-state to deal with them.

  We are all being acculturated to believe that the nation-state is nothing but an anachronism that needs to be supplanted. Keep in mind that this necessarily means treating democracy and freedom as anachronisms too. In practice, the only means by which average people can restrain tyranny and despotism is through voting at the national level. None of us have any influence over the policies of the WHO, World Bank, or IMF, much less over the Gates or Soros Foundations. The way politics is structured in the world today, we are all necessarily disenfranchised in a world governed by global institutions.

  And that is precisely the point: to achieve universal disenfranchisement of average people so that the elites can have a free hand in regulating the planet as they see fit. This is why it becomes supremely urgent for every person who aspires to live in peace and freedom to regain national sovereignty and say no to the transfer of authority to institutions over which citizens have no control.

  Devolving power from the center is the only path by which we can restore the ideals of the great visionaries of the past like Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Paine, and the entire generation of Enlightenment thinkers. In the end, governing institutions must be in citizen control, and pertain to the borders of particular states, or it necessarily becomes tyrannical over time. As Murray Rothbard put it, we need a world of nations by consent. 

  There are plenty of reasons to regret the collapse of the neo-liberal consensus and a strong rationale to be concerned about the rise of protectionism and high tariffs. And yet what they called “free trade” (not the simple freedom to buy and sell across borders but rather a state-managed industrial plan) also came at a cost: the transference of sovereignty away from the people in their communities and nations to supranational institutions over which citizens have no control. It did not have to be this way but that is how it was constructed to be. 

  For that reason, the neo-liberal consensus built in the postwar period contained the seeds of its own destruction. It was too dependent on the creation of institutions beyond people’s control and too reliant on elite mastery of events. It was already crumbling before the pandemic response but it was the Covid controls, nearly simultaneously imposed all over the world to underscore elite hegemony, that exposed the fist under the velvet glove. 

  The populist revolt of today might someday appear as the inevitable unfolding of events when people become newly aware of their own disenfranchisement. Human beings are not content to live in cages. 

  Many of us have long predicted a backlash to the lockdowns and all that was associated with them. The full scale of it none of us could have imagined. The drama of our times is as intense as any of history’s great epochs: the fall of Rome, the Great Schism, the Reformation, the Enlightenment, and the fall of the multinational empires. The only question now is whether this ends like America 1776 or France 1790. 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/21/2024 – 20:05

• Pentagon Chief Visits Ukraine, Unveils New Aid Package, Ahead Of US Election
  Pentagon Chief Visits Ukraine, Unveils New Aid Package, Ahead Of US Election

  Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin arrived in Ukraine’s capital by train on an unannounced visit Monday, at a moment Ukraine’s forces are getting steadily pushed back in the east, and as President Zelensky expresses frustration at the lack of large-scale new military aid.

  “It’s been absolutely remarkable that Ukraine has been able to do what it’s done,” Austin told reporters as he went into Ukraine Sunday night. “It’s been able to do that, of course, because of the fact that we have supported them from the very beginning, and we’ve rallied some 50 countries to be a part of that support.”

  In Kiev, Austin announced $400 million in new arms for Ukraine but did not acquiesce to the Ukrainians’ main ask – the greenlight to strike Russia with US-supplied weapons.

  

  The Wall Street Journal also emphasized of the package, “It was one of the smaller aid packages the Biden administration has announced and included no new types of weapons systems.”

  This trip to Ukraine is likely to be Austin’s last one there as Pentagon chief. CNN noted that it came amid a dark and pessimistic backdrop: 

  The secretary’s visit was also meant to serve as a moment for him to “step back” and look at the “arc” of the US-Ukraine relationship over the last two and a half years of war, a senior defense official said.

  It was not a victory lap, however. The Ukrainians are in a “very tough” situation against the Russians heading into winter, the official noted.

  There was one moment in Austin’s remarks clearly aimed at Trump and Republican lawmakers back home. Amid ongoing GOP criticisms, including calls to take care of Americans first amid natural disasters instead of handing billions over to Ukraine, the defense secretary tried to brush back these arguments…

  “For anyone who thinks that American leadership is expensive, well, consider the price of American retreat,” Austin said.

  “Not since World War II has America systematically rallied so many countries to provide such a range of industrial and military assistance for a partner in need.”

  Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin has arrived in Kyiv on an unannounced visit. He will meet Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Defense Minister Rustem Umierov to discuss Ukraine’s arms needs. pic.twitter.com/TPWU3CMRdc

  — NEXTA (@nexta_tv) October 21, 2024

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  Zelensky last month lashed out at Trump running-mate J.D. Vance, calling him “too radical” for his stance on the war. The Ukrainian leader expressed that “the idea that the world should end this war at Ukraine’s expense is unacceptable.”

  Clearly Austin’s Monday words were framed in response to that controversy, and some GOP operatives are not going to be happy that the Pentagon chief used an official visit abroad to weigh in. But one question that remains is: How much for North Carolina?

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/21/2024 – 19:40

• Elon Musk Says He's "Upgrading Security" After Being Named "Enemy Number Two" By Media
  Elon Musk Says He’s “Upgrading Security” After Being Named “Enemy Number Two” By Media

  Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

  X owner Elon Musk says he is increasing his security after receiving “vitriolic” threats for endorsing president Trump.

  

  Appearing at a town hall event in Pittsburgh Sunday, Musk told the crowd about being pictured on the cover of Der Spiegel magazine, which labeled him ‘Public Enemy No. 2’ – behind Trump.

  German SPIEGEL hates freedom.

  Mainstream journalism is a complete joke – citizen journalism is the future. Thank god, Elon Musk bought Twitter and made it X. pic.twitter.com/NE3nZcMJSd

  — Miró (@unblogd) October 20, 2024

  “I’m like, enemy number 2 of what? Uh, democracy?” Musk told the crowd, adding “I mean I’m pro-democracy. I’m literally trying to uphold the Constitution and ensure we have a free and fair election.”

  Musk added, “I’m definitely upgrading my security,” quipping “Guess I better cancel that open-car parade.”

  The Tesla CEO admitted that he is a “little shook” by the “level of vitriolic hatred on the left.”

  🚨ELON MUSK: “I hope I don’t get shot. I was just on a German magazine saying I was ‘enemy number two.’ Enemy number two of what? I’m definitely upgrading my security. Maybe I should put an inflatable dummy of me in a motorcade. Just troll them.” 😂🔥 pic.twitter.com/bxocA7K5Mt

  — Autism Capital 🧩 (@AutismCapital) October 20, 2024

  “They claim they’re tolerant. And yet, they’re incredibly intolerant and spewing hate,”Musk said, adding “Whereas on the right I see people who tend to regard people on the left as, well, misguided. But they don’t hate them.”

  “But the amount of hate coming from the left is like, wow, next level,” he continued.

  Here’s the full event:

  Musk is no stranger to threats since taking over Twitter in an effort to preserve free speech.

  Musk has come under sustained attack since coming out for Trump.

  Deranged leftists, such as Mark Cuban, are openly advocating sanctioning Musk’s companies because of his political opinions.

  This is insane. Joe Scarborough and Mark Cuban are openly arguing that Elon Musk deserves to have his businesses punished because of his political opinions.

  It really is Donald Trump or communism. pic.twitter.com/ezTRIBJVFF

  — 🇺🇸Travis🇺🇸 (@Travis_4_Trump) October 19, 2024

  Musk has repeatedly warned that if Trump doesn’t win the election, it could be the last and that civilisation is on the line.

  *  *  *

  Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/21/2024 – 19:15

• "Democratic Party Big Gov't Machine" Explained In Flow Charts 
  “Democratic Party Big Gov’t Machine” Explained In Flow Charts 

  Tyler O’Neil, managing editor of The Daily Signal, has done a deep dive on the radical left’s complex, dark money networks – what Elon Musk calls the “Democratic Party big government machine“ – which heavily influence the administrative state on issues like education, borders, climate change, transgender ideology, elections, foreign policy, and the weaponization of federal agencies against political enemies, like former President Trump and Musk.

  In a series of posts on X, O’Neil provides a 10,000 ft. view of this vast network which he details in his upcoming book, “The Woketopus: The Dark Money Cabal Manipulating the Federal Government.” 

  

  O’Neil begins with the question: 

  “Why is the Biden-Harris administration so woke? Didn’t Biden campaign as a moderate?” 

  🚨Why is the Biden-Harris administration so woke? Didn’t Biden campaign as a moderate?🤔

  This chart explains what happened. Bear with me: I know it looks like a conspiracy theory, but I have the receipts.

  In short: The Left’s dark money network funds a system of woke… pic.twitter.com/FR4KWQ7CYE

  — Tyler O’Neil (@Tyler2ONeil) October 21, 2024

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  Continued from X:

  “This chart explains what happened. Bear with me: I know it looks like a conspiracy theory, but I have the receipts.

  In short: The Left’s dark money network funds a system of woke nonprofits that staff and advise the administrative state, getting their far-left policy agenda implemented in the federal government.” 

  

  One primary concern O’Neil has is the weaponization of federal law enforcement against conservatives, driven in part by the Southern Poverty Law Center.

  Here’s how that works: 

  One of the biggest issues for me has been the weaponization of federal law enforcement against conservatives.

  At the center of this is the Southern Poverty Law Center, a far-left smear factory that puts mainstream conservative and Christian groups on a “hate map” with the Ku Klux Klan. The SPLC targets organizations that oppose its far-left agenda on critical race theory, immigration, transgender issues, and more.

  SPLC President Margaret Huang has bragged that federal law enforcement reached out to the SPLC for advice on combatting the “domestic terror threat,” and FOIA documents reveal the extent of the SPLC’s influence in government. SPLC leaders and staff have visited the White House at least 18 times, according to visitor logs.

  The SPLC has also received funding from the Foundation to Promote Open Society, the Proteus Fund, the New Venture Fund, and the Tides Foundation.

  

  O’Neil shows the complex web of how Democrats and their billionaire funders, like Soros, and their leftist groups are trying a takeover of federal elections: 

  The vast influence campaign I call the Woketopus has also monkeyed with election rules. The leftist group Demos has extensive ties to the Biden-Harris administration.

  When the Senate failed to advance the Democrats’ H.R. 1 bill that would have amounted to a federal takeover of elections, Biden instead signed an executive order that echoed a Demos paper nearly word-for-word.

  This executive order enlisted federal agencies in registering voters, and early in the administration’s implementation of the order, the government convened a host of Woketopus groups — including SPLC, the Tides Foundation, and many others — to a “listening session.” Conspicuously absent was any conservative group or any group warning about election integrity.

  

  Here’s the influence network of how Democrats and their billionaire donors, such as Soros and Rockefeller Family Fund, push climate change policies via nonprofits that then influence federal agencies: 

  President Biden and VP Harris have repeatedly bragged about the “Inflation Reduction Act” as an historic investment in climate initiatives.

  The Biden-Harris administration has seen green activist groups infiltrate the federal government, using the bureaucracy as a revolving door and getting bureaucrats to implement their pet policies.

  One of the most notorious strategies they use is called “sue and settle.” An environmentalist group will sue a federal agency, claiming the agency failed to enforce the law by not regulating oil and gas enough. The agency, which is supposed to represent the American people, actually wants to regulate oil and gas more, so it denies the people a seat at the table. The agency admits fault, implements the green group’s preferred policy, and — to top it all off — often pays the green group money in a settlement.

  The Trump administration tried to crack down on this scheme, but the Biden-Harris administration reversed his efforts.

  

  And, of course, how billionaire donors use nonprofits to push foreign policy – including Israel, which is a horseshoe issue that both the progressive left and the libertarian-right agree on for somewhat overlapping reasons.

  While the Biden-Harris administration often favors the Woketopus’ agenda, some Woketopus groups have attacked Biden, and he has faced a deep state effort to undermine his policy supporting Israel.

  Of course, Biden’s record on Israel is far from perfect — he enriched Iran by loosening sanctions and trying to resurrect the Iran Nuclear Deal — but many bureaucrats rose in revolt when he publicly took Israel’s side after Oct. 7.

  Anti-Israel groups that tie in with the Woketopus network have pressured Biden to oppose Israel and to issue sanctions on Israelis. Many of the same dark money groups that funded organizations supporting the anti-Israel protests on college campuses have also bankrolled the Woketopus, and I detail their connections in my chapter on this effort. 

  

  But there’s more. Wonder where all the woke gender stuff came from?? 

  Why did the administration go all-in on transgender pronouns (even for illegal aliens), experimental “gender-affirming care,” and transgender rules for foster care?

  Well, the Human Rights Campaign’s Corporate Equality Index helps explain why Corporate America went woke, and HRC had a blueprint for federal policy, as well.

  Biden, Harris, and many others in the administration not only spoke at HRC event, but also met with HRC staff at the White House. How’s Biden’s equality score? I’ve got the answers in my book.

  

  O’Neil unravels the tangled web of far-left Democrats who exert influence the federal government via nonprofits to drive all sorts of policies nobody voted for – from green to woke to gender to foreign policy – the list goes on and on.

  More:

  Remember that fancy Constitution you learned about in school, with its nice checks and balances empowering the popular majority while protecting the rights of the minority? That’s not how it works today. Instead, a fourth branch of government writes reams and reams of regulations that dictate how you live your life. This system allows the woke elites to shove their ideology down our throats in the name of scientific progress.

  🚨Who’s really in control of Washington? Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the presidential race revealed that he’s essentially a figurehead, but a figurehead for what?🤔 My new book📕 “The Woketopus: The Dark Money Cabal Manipulating the Federal Government” reveals how the… pic.twitter.com/MrsmwifJoo

  — Tyler O’Neil (@Tyler2ONeil) September 19, 2024

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  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/21/2024 – 18:50

• These Homeschooling Parents Are Raising Their 6 Kids Without Devices
  These Homeschooling Parents Are Raising Their 6 Kids Without Devices

  Authored by Anna Mason and Daksha Devani via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Instead of slurping from their cereal bowls and scrolling through their phones, Glade and Bethel Smith’s children start their day by eating breakfast as a family followed by a reading of the Bible.

  

  The Smith kids—Madeline,13, Everett, 11, Annabeth, 10, Vivian, 7, Penelope, 6, and Henry, 3—are eager to read the verses but wait for their turn, after which they clean up the kitchen and get ready to start their day.

  “We homeschool our kids,” 41-year-old Glade, from Nebraska, told The Epoch Times. “None of our kids have a phone or any electric devices. None of our kids play video games. [Instead] our kids love to read and love to use their imagination.”

  

  Homeschooling and Helping Out at the Farm

  The kids begin their homeschooling day at 8.30 a.m. with their stay-at-home mom reading novels aloud that align with what they are learning at school, followed by a fun session of singing together.

  The Smith children, who read at least 25 to 30 books per year, are always begging for one more chapter to be read, said Glade, who owns Family Beef Farm Box—their family business that ships dry-aged, hand-cut beef across the country.

  

  If they complete their school work by lunchtime, the kids are encouraged to help their dad on the farm—with 3-year-old Henry, who isn’t in school yet, spending most of his time doing just that.

  “He’s probably our most animal lover of any of the kids,” Glade said, adding that the little boy loves milking cows and is not afraid of getting in there.

  

  On Mondays, the older kids join Glade to pack beef boxes.

  In the last couple of years, the parents have instituted the idea of paid jobs, with each child getting paid some money for completing their daily chores.

  “My oldest daughter is in charge of some calves that need to be fed,” said Glade, who is also a multi-generational cattle producer and bred cattle marketing specialist with Wright Livestock. “My son is in charge of caring for 60 chickens. One of my younger daughters is in charge of gathering and washing eggs.”

  

  The Smith kids—who were introduced to farm life at birth— have shown a strong work ethic despite being young.

  Their proud father recalled a work trip to Oklahoma with his son, Everett, who won a fellow cattleman’s heart with his diligence.

  “We’re gathering several hundred head of cattle, sorting and loading trucks. One of these hard-working, blue-collar cattlemen was blown away watching my [son] running cattle around doing a good job and gave him a $20 bill,“ he said. ”A year later, my boy still has that $20 bill. That meant so much to him.”

  

  

  Over the last year, Everett has worked laboriously in the muddy fields laying out heavy 30-foot-long tubes for irrigating crops in the scorching heat. His tireless efforts have won neighbors’ hearts with many asking Glade for his son’s assistance in irrigating their fields.

  “I was amused because I found myself being my son’s secretary, as neighbors were calling, [asking] ‘Can your son come help me today?’” Glade said, adding that he believes his hardworking son will become a “hot commodity” to farmers in the near future.

  Read the rest here…

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/21/2024 – 18:25

• SCOTUS Ends Michael Cohen's Latest Attempt To Take Down Trump
  SCOTUS Ends Michael Cohen’s Latest Attempt To Take Down Trump

  This morning, the Supreme Court rejected former Donald Trump attorney Michael Cohen’s appeal to bring back his civil rights claim against the former president.

  

  Cohen alleged former President Donald Trump, former Attorney General William Barr and other federal officials put him back in prison as retaliation for promoting a book critical of Trump.

  “[A]s it stands, this case represents the principle that presidents and their subordinates can lock away critics of the executive without consequence,” Cohen’s petition states.

  As Sam Dorman reports for The Epoch Times, Cohen had argued that two lower courts wrongly dismissed a claim that former President Donald Trump violated his rights by ending his prison furlough during the COVID-19 pandemic.

  According to Cohen’s petition, he had objected to a federal form that probation officers asked him to sign, which prohibited him from engaging with the media, including posting on social media.

  At the time, he was writing a book critical of the former president.

  Cohen’s attorney, Jon-Michael Dougherty, said the ruling “signals a dangerous moment in American democracy,” and raises questions about free-speech rights.

  

  Both Trump and the Justice Department filed briefs opposing Cohen’s petition.

  Cohen had attempted to claim a private right of action under the Supreme Court’s 1971 precedent in Bivens v. Six Unknown Federal Narcotics Agents.

  While that case upheld a cause of action related to unlawful search and seizures, Cohen asked the Supreme Court to consider whether it should apply to his circumstances.

  He alleged that he faced “retaliation for his refusal to waive his right to free speech.”

  U.S. Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar similarly raised concerns about separation of powers and argued that Cohen could have pursued alternative remedies such as the Bureau of Prisons’ Administrative Remedy Program.

  Trump told the court that Cohen’s attempt to expand the precedent under Bivens would disrupt the constitution’s separation of powers. He added that the doctrine of presidential immunity presented an “insurmountable obstacle” to Cohen’s claim.

  Trump attorney Alina Habba said the Supreme Court had correctly denied Cohen’s petition, and “he must finally abandon his frivolous and desperate claims.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/21/2024 – 18:00

• Left McTriggered After Trump Does Fun Publicity Stunt
  Left McTriggered After Trump Does Fun Publicity Stunt

  On Sunday, Donald Trump poked fun at Kamala Harris’ dubious claim that she ‘worked at McDonald’s and made fries,’ by going to a McDonald’s and making fries, plus working the drive-thru.

  

  President Trump serves fries to a Fox 29 Philly crew in Bucks County, Pennsylvania. pic.twitter.com/hUnVM4b9OR

  — Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) October 20, 2024

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  Ding, fries are done!

  HAPPENING NOW: President Trump is killing it on his first day on the job at McDonalds. Perfectly salted hot crispy fries. pic.twitter.com/DTH2cdGkEI

  — Bad Hombre (@joma_gc) October 20, 2024

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  Memes have been made.

  🚨BREAKING: New McDonalds ad featuring Trump just dropped! pic.twitter.com/frJN5yQz3s

  — Jason Rink (@TheJasonRink) October 20, 2024

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  pic.twitter.com/MWEUVcY6YG

  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 20, 2024

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  McTriggered!

  

  While most on the right thought it was a fun pre-election publicity stunt, it really triggered the left – which didn’t know what to do.

  If @McDonalds will hire adjudicated rapists and 34x convicted felons, I’m never eating there again. https://t.co/YR0uvZdHxQ

  — Eccentrical Foodie☮️🇺🇸🏳️‍🌈🇺🇦💙🫏 #TeamHarris (@FoodieEccentric) October 21, 2024

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  The sourpusses even posted a gotcha! Suggesting that because the McDonald’s closed for Trump’s event, the whole thing was staged. Well, duh. The guy was only almost assassinated twice (or thrice) and this is for fun.

  Reeeee!!!

  Perhaps no stunt in the history of U.S. politics deserves more ridicule than the grotesquely embarrassing mummery Trump put on at a Pennsylvania McDonald’s today

  The whole country got sh*ttier because of this

  The McDonald’s was closed, the customers were fake, Trump did nothing pic.twitter.com/qseSiRf2Hp

  — Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) October 21, 2024

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  So awesome! @realDonaldTrump working at McDonald’s today (something Kommiela never did) has triggered the worst people on the left! The meltdown is WILD. https://t.co/dgnrJLBplM

  — Jase (@JaseSTL) October 20, 2024

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  Cope and seethe https://t.co/hG9Tee3gW5

  — Jack Poso 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) October 20, 2024

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  Tim Walz had jazz hands of fury – and despite all the lies, insisting that Kamala Harris actually worked there. We’re sure he’s not lying this time too.

  This guy spent decades stiffing workers pay, cut overtime benefits for millions of people, and opposed any effort to raise the minimum wage.

  You know who has actually worked at McDonald’s, joined workers on picket lines, and fights for working people? @KamalaHarris. https://t.co/QzFMVLiuaj

  — Tim Walz (@Tim_Walz) October 20, 2024

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  Even Matt Drudge opined (2016 Matt, blink twice if you need help).

  pic.twitter.com/0sXg5izMmN

  — Matt Drudge (@DRUDGE) October 20, 2024

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  Hilariously, The Atlantic‘s David Frum revealed he doesn’t know the difference between grilling and frying (and earned a nice ratio).

  “Frying” pic.twitter.com/By5VmOCjqC

  — Gummi (@gummibear737) October 20, 2024

  Exactly. https://t.co/eqZ3ojEDxy

  — Catturd ™ (@catturd2) October 21, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  This is how you know the publicity stunt worked…

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/21/2024 – 17:45

• Quantum Computer 'Threat' To Crypto Is Exaggerated… For Now
  Quantum Computer ‘Threat’ To Crypto Is Exaggerated… For Now

  Authored by Andrew Singer via CoinTelegraph.com,

  A report that Chinese researchers have employed a D-Wave quantum computer to breach encryption algorithms used to secure bank accounts, top-secret military data and crypto wallets is at first glance a matter for deep concern. 

  “This is the first time that a real quantum computer has posed a real and substantial threat to multiple full-scale SPN [Substitution-Permutation Network] structured algorithms in use today,” wrote Shanghai University scientists in a peer-reviewed paper, according to the South China Morning Post (SCMP) on Oct. 11.

  The paper talks about breaking RSA (Rivest-Shamir-Adleman) encryption, one of the oldest and widely used public-key cryptosystems.  

  

  Details about the latest research have been slow to emerge so it’s difficult to say for sure how dire the threat is to cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology. The paper had yet to be released in English as of Oct. 11, and researchers weren’t taking any interviews, supposedly “due to the sensitivity of the topic,” according to SCMP.

  But if the researchers’ results hold up, and can be duplicated by others, “it is a step forward” in the evolution of quantum computing, Marek Narozniak, a physicist with a background in quantum computing, and founder at sqrtxx.com, told Cointelegraph.

  Would it mean that the password-protection mechanisms used in many industries, including banking and cryptocurrencies, might soon be vulnerable, as many fear, however?

  “From the paper many details are missing, so it is difficult to provide a definite answer” with regard to its possible significance, Massimiliano Sala, Full professor and head of the Laboratory of Cryptography at the University of Trento, told Cointelegraph.

  Much depends on whether the scientists were able to break RSA keys of a certain size — i.e., keys as large as those used by banks to secure customer’s savings and checking accounts today. “There is no evidence of that,” said Sala.

  But if they had, it would be “huge,” he said.

  Quantum computing, (QC), which uses atomic “spin” instead of an electrical charge to represent its binary 1’s and 0’s, is evolving at an exponential rate, many believe. But full purpose QC devices have yet to emerge at scale.

  The D-Wave machines used in Shanghai, sometimes called quantum annealers, are really proto-quantum computers, or forerunners, capable of conducting specialized tasks only. 

  

  D-Wave 2X 1000 Qubit quantum annealing processor chip mounted and wire-bonded in its sample holder. Source: Mwjohnson0

  However, if and when universal quantum computers do emerge, they could threaten the elliptic curve cryptographic structure which has served Bitcoin and other cryptos very well until now, some worry.

  It could be only a matter of time before quantum computers will be able to identify the enormous prime numbers that are key constituents of a BTC private key — assuming no countermeasures are developed.  

  “However, we must keep in mind that D-Wave quantum computers are not general-purpose quantum computers,” added Sala. Moreover, D-Wave’s “ability to factor RSA keys was already established by one of my colleagues a few months ago,” he said.

  Takaya Miyano, professor of mechanical engineering at Japan’s Ritsumeikan University, also questioned the significance of the scientists’ results — and along similar lines as Sala. 

  The length of the integer that the Shanghai researchers factorized, 22 bits, “is much shorter than that of actual RSA integers, which is usually equal to or greater than 1024 bits, e.g, 1024, 2048, and maximally 4096 bits,” he told Cointelegraph.

  Moreover, “the D-wave machine is a kind of quantum simulator for solving optimization problems, not a universal computer,” Miyano added. It isn’t clear that it would be able to conduct rapid factorization of large RSA integers in the real world.

  Why prime factorization is important

  Factorization is a mathematical process where a number can be written as the product of smaller whole numbers. For instance, 12 can be factorized, or written, as 3 x 2 x 2. Efficient prime number factorization has been called “the holy grail” of breaking a RSA public-key cryptosystem.

  RSA is more than encryption, after all. It is also a ‘key’ generation scheme that typically involves multiplying large prime numbers. Two parties — a bank and its customer, for example — typically receive a set of prime numbers that are used to compute their private and public keys, Narozniak explained.

  The process of actually generating private and public keys is complex, but if ‘p’ and ‘q’ are prime numbers, and ‘n’ is the product of those two prime numbers (i.e., n = p x q), then one can say that p and q are related to the private keys and n is related to the public key. 

  The basic mathematical principle behind RSA encryption is that while it is easy to multiply two prime numbers, it is very difficult to do the reverse, i.e., find the two prime numbers that are factors of a product — and this becomes harder as the numbers get larger. 

  Sala’s University of Trento colleagues earlier this year used a quantum annealer to uncover the two prime factors of the number 8,219,999 (i.e., 32,749 and 251) “which, to the best of our knowledge is the largest number which was ever factorized by means of a quantum device,” wrote the researchers.

  In Sala’s view the recent Shanghai University paper is significant “only if they have found a way to factorize huge numbers.” 

  The University of Trento researchers also cited the great potential of quantum computing to solve complex problems that have long remained “intractable” for classical computers. 

  Prime factorization — i.e., the problem of breaking down a number into its prime factors — in particular, “is a good candidate to be effectively solved by quantum computing, in particular by quantum annealing.” 

  Crypto keys are safe — For now

  Let’s assume, however, that the Shanghai scientists really did find a way to use a quantum annealer to successfully breach cryptographic algorithms, including those like SPN which are foundational for the advanced encryption standard (AES) widely used in the military and finance. What would that do to the crypto industry?

  “Symmetric ciphers such as AES-128 used for data encryption are not vulnerable to this kind of attack as they do not rely on number factorization,” said Narozniak.

  There might be exceptions, of course, like if the cipher is a shared secret derived via RSA-based key exchange protocol, he continued. But “properly encrypted passwords and other data in general will remain encrypted even if the approach presented in that research scales up and becomes widely available — and if true,” he said. 

  A history of unproven RSA claims

  Narozniak cautioned against rushing to conclusions. “Before we re-evaluate our level of optimism, let us wait for someone to repeat and confirm this result,” he said. “Claims of breaking RSA are not so uncommon.” 

  In early 2023, for instance, Chinese researchers said they had factorized a 48-bit key on a 10-qubit quantum computer, a claim “which still has not been peer reviewed,” commented Narozniak. 

  “And two years before that Claus Schnorr, who is an authority in the community, made an honest mistake and claimed RSA to be broken. I personally take such big claims with a grain of salt.”

  According to Sala: “Breaking RSA would mean that a lot of software should be updated, but not drastically changed,” because there are already-implemented standards that provide alternatives including elliptic curve cryptography (ECC), used to secure Bitcoin. He added:  

  “More drastic would be the impact on credit cards and the like, which would have to be withdrawn massively, to radically change their software.” 

  One might wonder why cryptocurrencies are not using RSA widely — as banks do. The crypto industry favors elliptic-curve cryptography because ECC makes it possible to achieve the same level of security with much smaller keys using fewer bytes, said Narozniak. This opens up digital space which enables chains to grow faster. 

  Is Buterin’s ‘hard fork’ solution viable?

  Elsewhere, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin suggested in March that a “hard fork” could subvert a quantum attack on Ethereum were it to arise. “We are already well-positioned to make a pretty simple recovery fork to deal with such a situation,” he posted on Oct. 17. Users might have to download new wallet software, but few would lose funds.

  Is it really so easy, though? “I disagree that such a hard fork would be ‘simple,’” said Narozniak. And looking ahead, quantum-safe signatures, such ML-DSA, would need to have significantly larger keys and signatures compared with those used today. This could slow on-chain performance and raise gas fees, he suggested.

  Executing a hard fork would “be complex, require broad community consensus, and may not restore all lost assets or fully repair trust in the network,” Samuel Mugel, chief technology officer at Multiverse Computing, told Cointelegraph. “Therefore, it’s crucial to implement quantum-resistant cryptography before such an attack happens to avoid this situation.”

  Safeguards are needed

  “We most certainly need to revisit our current cybersecurity defenses,” Christos Makridis, associate research professor at Arizona State University and CEO/Founder of Dainamic, told Cointelegraph. 

  More attention needs to be paid to network capacity loads (i.e., defending against distributed denial of service attacks) and to passwords (e.g., to protect data from hackers) in a world with quantum computing. He further observed:

  “One of the emerging views is that the expansion of quantum computing and generative AI has enabled offensive cyber more than defensive.”

  The industry can’t become complacent. “Dangerous quantum computers will come, it’s just a matter of time,” Sala warned. 

  “The blockchain world must get ready as soon as possible, by planning a roadmap towards a transition to post-quantum cryptography,” he added, developing safeguards able to resist attack even by a “fully-fledged quantum adversary.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/21/2024 – 17:40

• New Israeli Air Raids Unleash Giant Fireballs, Chaos In Beirut
  New Israeli Air Raids Unleash Giant Fireballs, Chaos In Beirut

  (1736ET): Before and after midnight (local time), huge Israeli strikes are once again rocking southern Beirut suburbs, with reports of large strikes hitting very near hospitals. 

  Early videos of some of tonight’s airstrikes show absolutely massive fireballs expanding high over the city, amid another night of panic on the ground, and as hospitals are filling up.

  That’s massive. #Beirut pic.twitter.com/LSs42OroQn

  — FJ (@Natsecjeff) October 21, 2024

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  Local media has indicated at least 13 raids in the last hours, and Lebanon’s health ministry said that at least four have been killed in the fresh attacks:

  Lebanon’s Health Ministry says one of those killed was a child.

  Twenty-four people also were wounded in an initial toll following the Israeli attack near Rafik Hariri Hospital in southern Beirut, the ministry said.

  Sahel Hospital in the southern suburbs of Beirut is also being threatened, with Israel’s military claiming that Hezbollah uses the facility to store cash and gold.

  

  Al Jazeera has listed the following late-breaking updates as follows:

  • Israeli forces have bombed the vicinity of Rafik Hariri Hospital in Beirut’s southern suburbs, Lebanon’s National News Agency is reporting.
  • According to local media reports, Israeli air strikes have targeted three locations: Ozai, Jinah and Haret Hreik.
  • Lebanon’s Sahel General Hospital in Beirut’s southern suburbs is being evacuated after Israel claimed that Hezbollah has a bunker filled with cash under it, the hospital director says.
  • Hezbollah has released a statement saying it launched rockets at an Israeli army intelligence base near Tel Aviv.
  • The director of field hospitals at Gaza’s Health Ministry says Israel is targeting the three remaining medical facilities in northern Gaza.
  • The Israeli army spokesperson claims that a strike in Syria’s capital killed the commander of a Hezbollah unit who was responsible for the transfer of weapons from Iran.

  * * * 

  Israel on Sunday night began fresh, heavy airstrikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs as well as in the Bekka Valley in the east of Lebanon, for the first time declaring it would target banks suspected of financing Hezbollah.

  “The air force will launch extensive strikes on targets in the southern suburb of Beirut, targeting Hezbollah-linked economic assets,” IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari said as strikes were underway. Buildings that belong to al-Qard al-Hassan Association are at the top of the list, identified by the Israelis as long associated with the Shia paramilitary group backed by Iran.

  

  With at least 30 branches across Lebanon, and 15 Beirut locations in bustling neighborhood, al-Qard al-Hassan Association is also used by many Lebanese civilians.

  The US-sanctioned bank has been around since the 1980’s and is focused on providing services to Lebanon’s Shiite community, which is mostly concentrated in the south.

  “The purpose of the strike is to target the ability of Hezbollah to function both during the war but also afterwards to rebuild and to rearm the organization on the day after,” an Israeli military statement continued.

  Some dozen large airstrikes rocked Beirut’s southern suburbs last night, including one or more which were very near Beirut International Airport, reportedly targeting the bank branches.

  The bank has sought to assure its customers it has taken “all of the necessary procedures since the beginning of the war to safeguard your deposits and valuables and can confirm that you should not worry they are safe.”

  A regional analyst was quoted in The Wall Street Journal as follows:

  “The main loss for the people using its services will be the destruction of family gold they pawned in exchange for loans,” said Lina Khatib, director of the SOAS Middle East Institute and author of a study of Hezbollah’s influence networks.

  “But for as long as Hezbollah’s external financial operations remain active, including its involvement in illicit finance internationally, and as long as Iran continues to fund it, Al-Qard Al-Hassan’s clients will expect Hezbollah to be able to compensate them for their losses,” she said.

  The Lebanese Health Ministry said over the weekend that at least 2,464 Lebanese have been killed since hostilities began in Oct.2023; however, it remains unclear how many of that figure are combatants vs. civilians.

  BEIRUT: Surreal video after Israeli bombardment near Beirut international airport without air, tarmac traffic being halted. 20 days into #Lebanon war and unclear how this ends: pic.twitter.com/QxPXIRFady

  — Joyce Karam (@Joyce_Karam) October 21, 2024

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  The whole region remains on edge awaiting Israel’s retaliation against Iran, which US intelligence has said is “almost certainly” going to happen. A Bloomberg note indicates:

  Oil prices bounce back from last week’s steep fall with Brent crude futures climbing 1.3% to around $74 a barrel. Traders are likely monitoring tensions in the Middle East after Israeli PM Netanyahu held a series of meetings with top security aides to discuss the next attack on Iran. Israel is discussing its attack on Iran after a Hezbollah drone exploded near Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s private home at the weekend.

  Below are more regional developments via Newsquawk…

  • Israeli PM Netanyahu said a drone attack which targeted his home in northern Israel was a “grave mistake”, while he and his family were not at their house when the drone attack struck on Saturday and there were no casualties.
  • Israeli PM Netanyahu spoke with former US President Trump and told him that Israel considers the issues the US administration raises but will make decisions based on its national interests.
  • Israel’s military said it attacked Hezbollah’s intelligence HQ and weapons storage facilities in the southern suburbs of Beirut on Saturday. It was also reported that Israel conducted a fresh raid on the southern suburbs of Beirut on Sunday, as well as targeted the city of Tyre and the towns of Bir al-Salasil and Homine al-Fawqa in southern Lebanon.
  • Israeli military spokesperson had warned on Sunday that they would conduct targeted strikes on sites belonging to Hezbollah’s financial arm across Lebanon and urged Lebanese residents to evacuate areas near those facilities, while it was later reported that Israeli strikes hit branches of Hezbollah-linked bank in Beirut and Beqaa Valley, according to Times of Israel.
  • Hezbollah announced it conducted a rocket barrage at Beit Hillel base, while it was separately reported that Iraqi armed factions announced the targeting of an Israeli military site in the Golan with drones.
  • Israel gave the White House its demands for ending the war in Lebanon, while US President Biden’s envoy Amos Hochstein will visit Beirut on Monday to discuss a possible diplomatic solution with Lebanese officials, according to Axios. The report noted one Israeli demand is that IDF be allowed to engage in “active enforcement” to ensure Hezbollah doesn’t rearm and Israel also demands its air force have freedom of operation in Lebanese airspace, although a US official said it is highly unlikely Lebanon and the international community would agree to Israel’s conditions.
  • Iran’s Supreme Leader said Hamas leader Sinwar’s death will not halt the axis of resistance and Hamas will live on.
  • Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi alluded to the US and warned that anyone who knows how and when Israel will attack Iran will be held accountable, according to Reuters.
  • US House Speaker Johnson said on Sunday that there would be a classified briefing related to leaked US intelligence on Israel-Iran, according to Reuters.
  • US Defence Secretary Austin said he would like to see Israel scale back on some of its strikes in and around Beirut, while he raised the issue about UNIFIL security with Israel’s Defence Minister Gallant. Furthermore, Austin reviewed the US defence posture and said he is relieved that PM Netanyahu is safe, while he said he couldn’t confirm reports that North Korean troops are in Russia and readying for combat in the Ukraine war, according to Reuters.
  • UN peacekeeping force UNIFIL said an Israeli army bulldozer demolished a watchtower and fence surrounding the UN site in southern Lebanon on Sunday, according to Reuters.
  • G7 defence ministers reaffirmed the importance of supporting UNIFIL and the Lebanese armed forces in their role of ensuring the stability and security of Lebanon, while they called on Iran to refrain from providing support to Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and other non-state actors. Furthermore, they called on Houthis to immediately cease their escalatory measures that increase regional instability and immediately release the vessel Galaxy Leader and its crew.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/21/2024 – 17:36

• A Media Beyond Caricature
  A Media Beyond Caricature

  Authored by Victor Davis Hanson,

  CBS’s iconic 60 Minutes has had plenty of scandals and embarrassments in its long 57-year history, most notably the fake-but-accurate Dan Rather mess. Yet never has it found itself in greater disrepute than in 2024.

  

  Donald Trump, for good reason, recently declined to join 60 Minutes for its traditional election-year in-depth interviews of the two presidential candidates. Why?

  Last time he consented in 2020, anchor and interviewer Leslie Stahl attacked Trump’s accurate assertion that the Hunter Biden laptop (then in the possession of the FBI) was authentic—and authentically damning to Joe Biden’s presidential candidacy.

  Stahl falsely claimed the laptop “can’t be verified.” She further incorrectly asserted, “So this story about Hunter and his laptop, some repair shop found it; the source is Steve Bannon and Rudy Giuliani.” The New York Post, in fact, reported the story. The FBI did not deny it.

  Yet old Twitter and Facebook, under collaborating FBI tutelage and pressure, suppressed dissemination of the truth. Joe Biden’s then-advisor and now Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in conjunction with former interim CIA Director Michael Morrel, helped round up “51 former intelligence authorities” (among them Leon Panetta and both John Brennan and James Clapper, who had admitted previously of lying under oath to Congress) to claim falsely that the laptop had all the hallmarks of a Russian information gambit to warp the election.

  Joe Biden used the “expert” consensus to further lie in the last Biden-Trump debate that the laptop was cooked up by the Russians. And neither CBS, the “intelligence authorities,” nor any of the Bidens have ever since apologized.

  More recently, CBS got caught selectively editing the 60 Minutes interview with Kamala Harris, cutting and pasting an incoherent Harris response to lessen her embarrassing word salad. And in a subsequent interview with House Speaker Mike Johnson, the network once again edited and pruned his answers, but in contrast, on this occasion, to make him seem far less persuasive.

  In yet another current CBS interview with author Ta-Nehisi Coates, network host Tony Dokoupil honestly questioned Coates about his new, one-sided, anti-Israeli book The Message. The result was that the left-wing icon Coates was almost immediately revealed to be abjectly ignorant of the Middle East, unapologetically biased, and completely uninterested in any viewpoint other than his own partisan prejudices.

  Yet what followed proved yet another network embarrassment. An internal CBS division with the eerie Orwellian title of “CBS News Race and Culture Unit” attacked Dokoupil for not providing “context” for Coates’s self-condemnatory and embarrassing interview. The subtext was that CBS, under pressure from woke zealots, simply disowned Dokoupil and sought to subject him to correct thought training. His apparent crime was not insisting on different—softball—journalistic standards for woke black authors like Coates. In other words, CBS blamed Dokoupil for revealing Coates to be a fool on the air.

  The network further diminished its eroding reputation yet again through the unprofessional conduct of recent moderators Norah O’Donnell and Margaret Brennan during the J.D. Vance/Tim Walz vice presidential debate.

  After the earlier ABC-sponsored debate between presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, in which the moderators became partisan fact-checkers (and often wrongly so) of Trump alone and drilled him on follow-up questions in a way not accorded Harris, CBS promised not to repeat such a network embarrassment. So, it pledged not to fact-check the two vice presidential candidates and instead to present a “fair” moderation of the event.

  Instead, the CBS moderators were even more patently one-sided than the prior disastrous ABC performance. The two broke their own pre-debate rules by indeed fact-checking. But, even worse, they fact-checked Vance alone. And, once again, did so erroneously in a way that only exposed their unprofessional partiality.

  Given the prior ABC debate sham, CBS was supposedly determined not to turn off the public with more moderator partisan distortions. Instead, the network proved that if it was a question of further eroding its professional brand or helping elect the Harris/Walz progressive ticket, then CBS would predictably choose to jettison its reputation to further the progressive cause.

  Just as CBS is no longer the network television standard, so too has the current generation of partisans done their best to sully the New York Times. Within just a few days, the Times embarrassed itself in ways similar to the partisanship so toxic at CBS.

  The Times just published an op-ed, “65 Doctors, Nurses and Paramedics: What We Saw in Gaza.” What followed were testimonials from medical officials and doctors in Gaza with truly harrowing stories of Israel’s collateral damage and the shooting of civilians, accompanied by X-ray photos of small children with IDF bullets allegedly lodged in their bodies and heads.

  But even if one was not aware of the fables promulgated by Hamas and the history of propagandistic attacks on Israel, and even if there was no corroboration of how the victims died and under what conditions, a novice might have sensed that something was not quite right with the evidentiary X-rays.

  Experts pointed out that the embedded bullets in the scans appeared pristine, without any fragmentation after entering skulls or midriff sections. There were no apparent entry and exit wounds on the images—suggesting either that it was unlikely the bullets came from IDF-issued high-velocity weapons or that the X-rays might simply have been rephotographed with IDF bullets placed beneath them. In any case, the New York Times did not cite any expert outside reviewer to authenticate the scans.

  Recently, the New York Times again rushed to partisan judgment to persuade the public that current charges of abject plagiarism by presidential candidate Vice President Harris were baseless. Accusations arose that Harris and her coauthor in a past book on crime had plagiarized a number of sources multiple times.

  Yet the Times claimed the copying was minor and did not rise to the level of actionable plagiarism. It “proved” this by quoting a plagiarism “expert,” Jonathan Bailey, who, it implied, had consulted all the alleged plagiarism passages.

  But once the public saw just a few of the passages in question, almost immediately it concluded otherwise: that Harris and her co-author were indeed plagiarists. That forced Bailey, the original Times expert, to reconsider his initial opinion: “At the time, I was unaware of a full dossier with additional allegations, which led some to accuse the New York Times of withholding that information from me. However, the article clearly stated that it was my ‘initial reaction’ to those allegations, not a complete analysis.”

  Bailey then concluded that Harris had indeed committed plagiarism but not “maliciously” so. Once again, the Times had not verified its assertions before publication, and once again it had erred on the side of its known partisanship.

  The Times and CBS are just a small example of current once-prestige outlets—such as ABC (cf. its moderators during the Harris-Trump presidential debate) and NPR (that just retracted its scurrilous charges against journalist Rich Lowry)—who have consistently abused the public’s trust for the partisan benefit of progressives or their causes.

  In sum, the trust and prestige that took prior generations of journalists decades to earn have been thrown away in just a few years by incompetents and partisans—on the ancient, flawed principle that the supposedly superior moral ends justify any means necessary to achieve them.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/21/2024 – 17:00

• Democrat Atlantic City Mayor Charged With Beating His Daughter
  Democrat Atlantic City Mayor Charged With Beating His Daughter

  Democrat Atlantic City mayor Mayor Marty Small Sr. and his wife, La’Quetta Small have been charged with physically harming their daughter on “multiple occasions” last winter, according to a new report from Philly Voice. 

  The pair are facing charges of child endangerment, assault and terroristic threats, the report says. 

  Attorneys for the mayor and his wife call the charges “headline-grabbing” due to his “high profile status”, though to be fair, prior to this report…we’d never heard of him. 

  Attorney Ed Jacobs said: “We are confident that fair-minded jurors will quickly see that parenting struggles are not criminal events, and will agree on the innocence of both Marty and La’Quetta.”

  Atlantic County prosecutors accused Small of beating his 16-year-old daughter with a broomstick, slamming her down stairs, and punching her during family disputes in December and January. His wife is accused of punching their daughter, dragging her by the hair, hitting her with a belt, and striking her face.

  The incidents allegedly arose from conflicts over the girl’s boyfriend, who provided prosecutors with photos, videos, and evidence of the abuse and resulting bruises.

  

  Gov. Phil Murphy said through a spokesperson that Small should “consider whether he can continue effectively serving the people of Atlantic City as Mayor.”

  The Philly Voice report says that after prosecutors searched the Smalls’ home in March, Mayor Marty Small held a press conference – of course suggesting the investigation might have “political and racial motivations”.

  Constance Days-Chapman, Small’s former campaign manager and principal of Atlantic City High School, is charged with failing to report child abuse and obstructing justice.

  She allegedly did not notify child protection authorities after the Smalls’ daughter disclosed the abuse to her. Days-Chapman pleaded not guilty at her arraignment last week.

  If only Smalls had the same commitment to discipline with cleaning up Atlantic City…

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/21/2024 – 16:40

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Escobar: The Geoeconomic Drivers Of SCO-BRICS Synergy
  Escobar: The Geoeconomic Drivers Of SCO-BRICS Synergy

  Authored by Pepe Escobar,

  One week before the absolutely crucial BRICS summit in Kazan, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) held a summit in Islamabad.

  This convergence is important in more ways than one.

  

  The summit in Pakistan involved the Council of the Heads of Government of SCO member-states. Out of it came a joint communique stressing the need to implement decisions taken at the SCO annual summit last July in Astana: that’s where the heads of state actually gathered, including new SCO full member Iran.

  China, following the rotating SCO chairmanship of close ally Pakistan – now under a dodgy administration fully endorsed by the military goons who keep ultra-popular former Prime Minister Imran Khan in jail – has officially taken over the SCO presidency for 2024 to 2025. And the name of game, predictably, is business.

  The motto of the Chinese presidency is – what else – “action”. So Beijing took no time to start promoting further, faster synergy between the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU), whose predominant power is Russia.

  Cue to the Russia-China strategic partnership fast advancing trans-Eurasia economic corridors. And that brings us to a couple of key connectivity subplots featured prominently at the Islamabad summit.

  Riding the steppe

  Let’s start with the fascinating Steppe Road – which is a Mongolian idea crystalizing as an upgraded economic corridor. Mongolia is an observer at the SCO, not a full member: reasons for it are quite complex. Still, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin raved about the Steppe Road with his SCO interlocutors.

  The Mongolians came up with the idea of a Taliin Zam (“Steppe Road” in Mongolian) back in 2014, containing no less than “Five Great Passages”: a maze of transport and energy infrastructure to be built with investments totaling at least $50 billion.

  These include a 997 km-long transnational expressway linking Russia-China; 1,100 km of electrified railway infrastructure; the expansion of the – already running – Trans-Mongolian Railway from Sukhbaatar in the north to Zamyn-Uud in the south; and Pipelineistan of course, as in new oil and gas pipelines linking Altanbulag in the north to Zamyn-Uud.

  Mongolian Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai was as enthusiastic as Mishustin, announcing that Mongolia has already finalized 33 Steppe Road projects.

  These projects happen to neatly align with Russia’s own Trans-Eurasian Corridor – a connectivity maze which includes the Trans-Siberian Railway, the Trans-Manchurian Railway, the Trans-Mongolian Railway and the Baikal Amur Mainline (BAM).

  Back in July at the SCO summit, Putin and Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh spent quite some time discussing the finer strategic points of Eurasian logistics.

  Then Putin visited Mongolia in early September for the 85th anniversary of the joint Soviet-Mongolian victory over the Japanese at the Khalkhin Gol River. Putin was received as a rock star.

  All that makes perfect strategic sense. The Russia-Mongolia border is 3,485 km-long. The USSR and the Mongolian People’s Republic established diplomatic relations over a century ago, in 1921. They have been working together on key projects such as the Trans-Mongolian gas pipeline – yet another Russia-China connection; modernization of the Ulaanbaatar Railway joint venture; Russia supplying fuel to the new Chinggis Khaan International Airport; and Rosatom building a nuclear power plant.

  Mongolia harbors the proverbial wealth of natural resources, from rare earth minerals (reserves may reach an astonishing 31 million tons) to uranium (prospective reserves of 1.3 million tons). Even as it applies what is called the Third Neighbor approach, Mongolia needs to maintain a careful balancing act, as it is on the radar non-stop of the US and the EU, with the collective West pressing  for less Eurasia cooperation with Russia-China.

  Naturally Russia holds a major strategic advantage over the West, as Moscow not only treats Mongolia as an equal partner but can provide its neighbor’s needs when it comes to energy security.

  What makes it all even more enticing is that Beijing envisions the Steppe Road as “highly consistent” with BRI, complete with the proverbial enthusiasm hailing the synergy and “win-win cooperation” between both projects.

  This is not a military alliance

  Complementing the Steppe Road drive, Chinese Premier Li Qiang went to Pakistan not only for the SCO summit but with a connectivity priority: advancing the next stage of the $65 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), arguably BRI’s flagship project.

  Li and his Pakistani counterpart Sharif finally inaugurated the strategically crucial, Chinese-financed Gwadar International Airport in southwest Balochistan – against all odds plus intermittent raids by CIA-funded separatist Baloch guerrillas.

  CPEC is an extremely ambitious multi-level infrastructure development project encompassing several nodes starting from the China-Pakistan border in the Khunjerab pass, down through the – upgraded – Karakoram highway and descending south across Balochistan all the way to the Arabian Sea.

  In the future CPEC may even include a gas pipeline from Gwadar going up north all the way to Xinjiang – further easing China’s reliance on energy transported across the Strait of Malacca, which could be blocked by the Hegemon in no time.

  The pre-BRICS SCO summit in Pakistan once again reiterated the synergy of several aspects concerning both multilateral bodies. SCO member states – from the Central Asians to India and Pakistan – overwhelmingly understand Russian reasoning when it comes to the inevitability of the Special Military Operation (SMO).

  The Chinese position, officially, is a marvel of equilibrium and suave ambiguity; even as Beijing stresses the support for the principle of national sovereignty, it has not condemned Russia; and at the same time it has never directly blamed NATO for the de facto war.

  Geoeconomic connectivity is very much the priority for top SCO powers and strategic partners Russia-China. Since the early 2000s the SCO has evolved from counter-terrorism to  geoeconomic cooperation. Once again in Islamabad it was clear that the SCO will not turn into a military alliance in an anti-NATO mold.

  What matters most now for all members, apart from geoeconomic cooperation, is to combat the West’s war of terror – bound to go on overdrive with the imminent, humiliating failure of Project Ukraine.

  A mechanism that could further solidify the SCO and pave the way for a merger with BRICS further on down the – rocky – road is the Chinese concept of Global Security Initiative, which happens to dovetail with the Russian concept presented to – and rejected by – the US in December 2021, only two months before the inevitability of the SMO.

  China proposes to “uphold the principle of indivisible security” as well as “build a balanced, effective and sustainable security architecture” and firmly oppose “the building of national security on the basis of insecurity of other countries”. That’s something that every member of the SCO – not to mention BRICS – subscribes to.

  In a nutshell, indivisibility of security as envisaged by Russia-China amounts to the de facto application of the UN Charter. The result would be peace on a global level – and by implication the death knell to NATO.

  While indivisibility of security still can’t be adopted Eurasia-wide – as the Hegemon deploys a war of terror in several fronts to undermine the emergence of a multi-nodal world – win-win cross-border connectivity keeps on rolling, from the Steppe Road to New Silk Road corridors.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/21/2024 – 02:00

• The Strategic Consequences Of Kamala Harris' Incompetence
  The Strategic Consequences Of Kamala Harris’ Incompetence

  Authored by James E. Fanell and Bradley A. Thayer via Americvan Greatness,

  Vice President Kamala Harris’s disastrous performance in her interview with Fox News’s Bret Baier was notable for two reasons.

  • First, to the degree that there was any discussion of foreign national security threats to America, Harris only mentioned Iran. She failed to mention the disastrous war in Ukraine, where more than a million are dead, and the threat of nuclear war exists. Harris failed to reconcile her administration’s billions in dollars of military and civilian aid to Ukraine and policy actions against Russia for the most significant military threat in Europe since the end of World War Two. Worse though was her failure to make any reference to the existential threat from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

  • Second, her performance in response to salient questions—ones that had the chance to inform American voters—was an amalgamation of incoherence, anger, and deception that revealed a candidate who is uniquely unsuited to be president of the United States. The fact that she is the Democratic candidate and might become president is alarming to America’s friends, as it is welcomed by America’s enemies.

  In the interview, she had the opportunity to discuss her analysis of threats to America. While Iran is certainly a regional danger and a threat to the U.S. and its allies in the Gulf, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, it pales in comparison to the existential threat of the CCP. Indeed, Iran and Russia would be far less of a concern if the CCP were not given a free hand to back these aggressor nations. That the PRC is a grave and fundamental threat is revealed by its hyper-aggressive policies against the American people, U.S. allies like Japan and the Philippines, and partners like India and Taiwan.

  An example of the CCP’s threatening military posture was put on display when Exercise Joint Sword 2024B launched on October 14, in which People’s Liberation Army (PLA) forces encircled Taiwan to coerce its new leader, President Lai Ching-te, into a posture of subservience to the PRC. Thus far, those coercive attempts have failed. But Joint Sword 2024B revealed three aspects of the growing PRC threat. First, it showed the increasing capabilities of the PRC. Second, it demonstrated the ever-increasing penetrations of Taiwanese air and seaspace in an effort to normalize those violations and mask the actual invasion when it comes. Third, the first participation of the Chinese Coast Guard in the encirclement of Taiwan occurred.

  • First, with respect to the increased capabilities of the PLA Navy, it should be noted that their first aircraft carrier, Chinese Navy Ship (CNS) Liaoning/CV-16, conducted 90 fixed-wing take-offs and recoveries and 50 more from their embarked helicopters during their operations in the exercise. That is 140 sorties from a PLA Navy aircraft carrier in just one day. By any measure, the PLA Navy’s carrier aviation capabilities are now approaching U.S. Navy aircraft carrier air wing levels in terms of the number of sorties. It is the case that PLAN aircraft have a more limited range and weapons capacity than their U.S. Navy counterparts, due to the Liaoning’s ski-ramp launch, but the fact remains that within just two years, the Liaoning has gone from launching an average of just 30 sorties a day in 2022 to a 140 today. That is a real strategic trendline that presidential candidate Harris demonstrated no awareness or strategy to counter.

  • Second, regarding PLA incursions into Taiwan’s air and seaspace, exercise Joint Sword 2024B provides another inflection point in the PRC’s dramatic transformation of the military status quo in the cross-strait environment. During the exercise, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported that it detected a total of 153 PLA aircraft, 14 PLAN ships, and 12 Coast Guard ships operating around Taiwan and that 111 of those aircraft crossed the centerline of the Taiwan Strait and entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zones from the west, southwest, and east. To put that into perspective, from 1954 to 2020, PLA aircraft only crossed the centerline four times. This pattern of PLA air force incursions across the centerline began in earnest in 2022 when the PRC’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that the PRC no longer recognized the centerline—a clear violation of the previous agreements between Beijing, Taipei, and Washington to not forcibly alter the status quo. Yet since then, and now with exercise Joint Sword 2024B, the Biden-Harris administration has made no mention of this hyper-aggressive behavior by Beijing or taken any actions to rectify it.

  • Third, the Joint Sword 2024B exercise was unique in that it demonstrated the use of non-PLA ships from the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) in this PLA-led exercise. Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense reported up to 17 CCGs were detected operating in the waters off Taiwan, or as the PRC’s Global Times noted, the “CCG conducted multi-unit, multi-formation, and multi-subject drills around the island of Taiwan, focusing on strengthening the control network around the island.” The implications of these unprecedented actions by the CCG are to demonstrate that the CCP’s strategy to bring Taiwan under its control, either by blockade or an outright invasion, will use the entirety of the PRC’s assets—a whole of government effort. These facts at sea demonstrate that the PRC’s 2019 declaration of a “People’s War” against the United States is not just propaganda but is advancing in tangible ways.

  

  Americans need to understand the scope and scale of the CCP’s grand strategy as evidenced by the PLA Navy and the CCG’s demonstrated actions during exercise Joint Sword 2024B. The evidence is undeniable: the CCP intends for the PRC to become the dominant naval force, not just in Asia but across the globe.

  This reality comes against the backdrop of a Biden-Harris administration that keeps downsizing the size and capabilities of the U.S. Navy.

  So, when Bret Baier asks candidate Harris what America’s number one foreign adversary is and there is no mention of the PRC, Americans know this candidate is not competent to assume the office of the Presidency. Americans need to pay attention because U.S. national security is on a knife’s edge—to the U.S., the CCP is a hyper-aggressive regime that is determined to realize its grand strategic objective of dominance. Yet Harris displays no strategic gravitas. She evinces no evidence of the seriousness of the situation or of an understanding that deterrence of the CCP’s hyper-aggression is on her shoulders—let alone having a plan to address this threat.

  Deterrence of the CCP is everything. If it fails, this country will be at war with the PRC. Harris appears oblivious to the demands and requirements of deterrence. Accordingly, before the PRC blockades or invades Taiwan or launches an attack against the Philippines in the South China Sea, Americans must have a president sitting behind the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office who has the knowledge, experience, and courage to prepare our nation for the demands of deterrence of the CCP’s aggression. It must have a president who signals in stark and no uncertain terms to the CCP that their aggression is certain to fail—and so they had better not try it in the first place. A president who not only can talk tough but has the wherewithal to rebuild the U.S. deterrent. The catechism of deterrence is straightforward: weakness invites aggression; strength deters it. Americans must elect a president who understands this catechism and so defends our nation from all threats—most especially from the existential threat of the PRC.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/20/2024 – 23:55

• Left McTriggered After Trump Does Fun Publicity Stunt
  Left McTriggered After Trump Does Fun Publicity Stunt

  On Sunday, Donald Trump poked fun at Kamala Harris’ dubious claim that she ‘worked at McDonald’s and made fries,’ by going to a McDonald’s and making fries, plus working the drive-thru.

  President Trump serves fries to a Fox 29 Philly crew in Bucks County, Pennsylvania. pic.twitter.com/hUnVM4b9OR

  — Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) October 20, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Ding, fries are done!

  HAPPENING NOW: President Trump is killing it on his first day on the job at McDonalds. Perfectly salted hot crispy fries. pic.twitter.com/DTH2cdGkEI

  — Bad Hombre (@joma_gc) October 20, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Memes have been made.

  🚨BREAKING: New McDonalds ad featuring Trump just dropped! pic.twitter.com/frJN5yQz3s

  — Jason Rink (@TheJasonRink) October 20, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  pic.twitter.com/MWEUVcY6YG

  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 20, 2024

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  McTriggered!

  

  While most on the right thought it was a fun pre-election publicity stunt, it really triggered the left – which didn’t know what to do.

  If @McDonalds will hire adjudicated rapists and 34x convicted felons, I’m never eating there again. https://t.co/YR0uvZdHxQ

  — Eccentrical Foodie☮️🇺🇸🏳️‍🌈🇺🇦💙🫏 #TeamHarris (@FoodieEccentric) October 21, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The sourpusses even posted a gotcha! Suggesting that because the McDonald’s closed for Trump’s event, the whole thing was staged. Well, duh. The guy was only almost assassinated twice (or thrice) and this is for fun.

  So awesome! @realDonaldTrump working at McDonald’s today (something Kommiela never did) has triggered the worst people on the left! The meltdown is WILD. https://t.co/dgnrJLBplM

  — Jase (@JaseSTL) October 20, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Cope and seethe https://t.co/hG9Tee3gW5

  — Jack Poso 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) October 20, 2024

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  Tim Walz had jazz hands of fury – and despite all the lies, insisting that Kamala Harris actually worked there. We’re sure he’s not lying this time too.

  This guy spent decades stiffing workers pay, cut overtime benefits for millions of people, and opposed any effort to raise the minimum wage.

  You know who has actually worked at McDonald’s, joined workers on picket lines, and fights for working people? @KamalaHarris. https://t.co/QzFMVLiuaj

  — Tim Walz (@Tim_Walz) October 20, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Even Matt Drudge opined (2016 Matt, blink twice if you need help).

  pic.twitter.com/0sXg5izMmN

  — Matt Drudge (@DRUDGE) October 20, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Hilariously, The Atlantic‘s David Frum revealed he doesn’t know the difference between grilling and frying (and earned a nice ratio).

  “Frying” pic.twitter.com/By5VmOCjqC

  — Gummi (@gummibear737) October 20, 2024

  This is how you know the publicity stunt worked…

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/20/2024 – 23:20

• Wall Street Going "All-In On Trump"
  Wall Street Going “All-In On Trump”

  Matt Drudge’s slide into mainstream media obscurity has been one of the more remarkable events of the post-Trump era, yet – like an insane uncle locked up in the attic – few would bring it up in polite conversation (especially since so little is known about what caused Drudge’s striking U-turn in his one-time embrace of Trump). However, his tweet (or post) from last week that according to Wall Street, Kamala had a 72 chance to win (since deleted)…

  

  … prompted us to respond.

  That’s completely incorrect: according to Goldman Sachs, the Trump Victory index just hit an all time high while the Kamala index is back to Joe Biden Levels. Meanwhile, JPMorgan said that hedge funds are piling into Republican winner trades while dumping Democrat winners. https://t.co/wZBPOHbMBG pic.twitter.com/mq3uCxWjEI

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 18, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  We were the first, but hardly last, and shortly after our response to Drudge, both Goldman and JPMorgan chimed in, with reports that validated our criticism of Drudge’s naive – and dead wrong – claim.

  Later that day, JPMorgan’s closely followed Positioning Intelligence team published a must read report (available to pro subs), in which John Schlegel summarized the recent hedge fund positioning rather simply: “all-in on Trump themes.“

  

  This is how the JPM trader summarizes the findings of his report:

  As odds of a Trump presidency and Red Wave have increased over the past few weeks, we’ve seen themes that are perceived to be Republican Winners (JPREPWIN) outperform Democratic Winners (JPDEMWIN) by ~7% over the past month. Crypto stocks and small caps have performed better, while Renewables have underperformed. In addition, the wider US equity market continues to make new ATHs and positioning appears to be elevated. Based on the thematic shifts, historical returns around elections, and elevated positioning, there’s room for a bit of disappointment and reversal in coming weeks if odds start to shift the other way.

  In other words, the “smart market” is increasingly going all-in on a Trump victory.

  Below we excerpt the main highlights from the report (much more in the full report available to professional subs):

  • 1. All in on Trump Themes? Hedge Fund flows have shown a strong preference for Republican themes with Rep Winners (JPREPWIN) bought over the past few weeks, putting positioning near ~2yr highs, while Dem Winners (JPDEMWIN) were sold throughout the year and positioning at multi-year low. The relative Rep vs. Dem flows have shifted from -2z a few weeks ago to +2z over the past 10 days. Renewables (JP11RNEW, a clear proxy for a Dem win) have been sold a lot in the past couple weeks and positioning is turning more bearish again.

  

  • Crypto stocks have seen volatile flows, though buying lately has not been as strong as it was in mid-July.

  

  • 2. Flows Turning Positive & Positioning Relatively High Ahead of Election (vs. Prior Cycles). HF and ETF flows have been turning more positive lately and 4 week HF net flows have shifted materially from -2z in early Sep to +1z most recently.

  

  

  • ETF flows tend to stay positive post elections and even in years when they’re very strong, but S&P returns are often very muted in Oct during election years since 1950 (avg +10bps with range of +2.6% to -2.7% (ex. 2008)).

  

  • Overall positioning level for US equities remains somewhat elevated (+1.0z, >90th %-tile) and in prior election years since 2012, both positioning and SPX returns have tended to trend lower in the weeks heading into the election.

  

  • 3. Small Caps and Momentum…What’s the Setup? Small Caps / Russell 2000 is perceived to rally if we get a Red Wave, but Russell 2000 futures positioning seems pretty elevated already (vs. more neutral prior to the July bump).

  

  • Looking at a 3yr z-score of net positioning, it’s at +2z already, in line with prior highs. ETF flows into small cap ETFs vs. the broader universe are neutral, though not as bearish as they were heading into the July rally, while HF net exp to Size factor is biased more towards Large on a multi-year basis, but not particularly so on a 12m basis.

  

  • Momentum tends to underperform in the 10d leading up to the election (and continues to decline on average in 3m post-election), but its performance has been quite correlated to the wider market.

  

  • HFs don’t appear to be running material net exposure to Momentum, but flows have shown a bias towards selling laggards lately

  

  * * *

  Turning to Goldman Sachs, we find a similar bias. As we noted last week, a Republican Sweep Scenario, has emerged as one of the bank’s preferred trades ahead of the elections. This is how Goldman put it:

  Long our Republican Policy Pair (GSP24REP), consisting of long Republican Policy Outperformers (GS24REPL, ex-commods version is GS24RLXC) vs short Republican Policy Underperformers (GS24REPS)

  • Buy GS24REPL 20Dec24 107% / 117% OTC call spread for 1.30%. 7.69x net leverage. 15% delta. 23 iv. Max loss premium paid.
  • Buy GS24RLXC 20Dec24 108% / 118% OTC call spread for 1.30%. 7.69x net leverage. 16% delta. 25 iv. Max loss premium paid.

  As shown below, the Goldman Republican victory pair trade discussed above just hit an all time high.

  

  Decomposed into its constituents indexes, we find that the Republican Victory basket just hit an all time high, while the Democrat Victory basket is back to Biden levels.

  

  In a new report from Goldman FICC vice president Vincent Mistretta (available here to pro subscribers), the trader confirms what we have said, namely that “positioning in markets leans toward Trump-win expressions. That has been the case since even before the recent run up in betting market odds for Trump.”  To help its clients, the bank has come up with a dashboard enumerating these aforementioned preconceived notions, and some trades that should perform well in scenarios that feel under-positioned, underappreciated or are anti-consensus.

  GS Trading Views:

  • Anshul Sehgal (Co-Head of Global Interest Rate Products Trading & Head of US Interest Rate Products) – Don’t have strong views or a robust framework for the election. It’s a binary event, and unclear what the policies/implications will be either way. Rates have been and will continue to be volatile. The market is pricing a 20bp breakeven move over the election, which seems a bit high, but not so high that you want to be short that convexity over the event. If you have a Republican sweep scenario, the night of the market probably doesn’t move a lot – it’s rates higher, risk assets higher initially, largely because what you would likely expect is that the Trump tax cuts get extended and there may well be more fiscal coming. We think the right area of the curve to be short is 2y2y. On Harris victory with divided Congress, we expect the curve to initially bull steepen, and for risk assets to trade weaker – which we would view as an opportunity to set up belly shorts.
  • Mark Salib/Fernando Alvarado Aguilar (FX Trading):  Many clients are long USDCNH via risk reversals to position for a possible Trump presidency, as there isn’t a strong case for USDCNH to depreciate significantly from here. We also like AUDJPY or USDJPY topside on a Trump win. On a potential Harris win we think USDMXN downside is one of the best trades, with favorable entry levels after the recent squeeze higher amid buying from all client types this week, including hedge funds to position for a possible Trump win (especially given Trump’s comments throughout the campaign on implementing tariffs) as well as CTA and real money buying. In a Harris scenario we think EURUSD may rally around 1.5%, but think the moves would be larger in USDMXN and would prefer to express the trade there.
  • Shawn Tuteja/Joseph Clyne (Equities Derivatives Trading/Index Trading) – Among a host of macro factors, we think that the run up in stocks, the collapse in implied vols, and the outperformance of RUT over NDX are partially due to the recent uptick in Trump odds, and a reversion of that move could reverse all three trends. Generally, we like owning year-end upside in SPX on a 12 vol handle which we think can carry flat/positive through the election while having spot up vol up beta on any sustained rally. On the sector side, we’ve seen the “Trump trades” from 2016 start to work, as this last leg higher in SPX has been driven by regional banks (KRE), large-cap banks (XLF), and energy. We’ve seen this buying come at the expense of AI in the past week or so. Interestingly, we’ve gotten a lot of questions from clients in the past 24 hours on best ways to “fade a Republican sweep,” thinking the odds and market pricing have run too far on this.
  • Nick Bartal (Oil Products Trading) – There is currently little positioning in oil directly related to the election. The conflict in the Middle East has shaken a short/low positioned oil market into having length. However, the consensus still remains that the oil balance will be heavy in 2025, which led to the short positioning coming into the Israel/Iran conflict rally in early October. While little direct positioning surrounding the election exists, a Trump victory would likely be day 1 bullish for oil, as he may strengthen sanctions on Iran.

  Much more in the Goldman note available to pro subscribers.

  * * *

  Taking a quick look at UBS, the bank has its own thematic pair trade, and writes that the recent surge in the “Republican Sweep” basket supported the S&P 500 rallying to an all-time high. Indeed, as shown below, the UBS Republican Win basket has trounced the Democrat Win having closed higher for 14 consecutive days! Also, UBS notes that the dramatic ascent in dollar has largely been driven by Chinese Yuan weakness thanks to the surge the Republican Sweep theme.

  

  Elsewhere, in a note from UBS trader Michael Romano, he writes that “the UBS Republican vs. Democrat election pair trade is up 15% month to date to fresh highs in virtually a straight line, suggesting the market has largely priced former President Donald Trump’s victory.” Romano adds that “the election repricing, driven primarily by banks and solar, coincided with a growth re-pricing following a strong payrolls and strong earnings, making it less clear whether the recent moves are election or growth driven.”

  His conclusion: “While the end result is the same, i.e. banks higher, cyclicals/consumer/growth oriented stocks higher, the more the repricing was driven by an actual growth re-pricing, the more upside there still is on a Trump win. As most of the moves followed bank earnings, with strong follow-through on consumer, my money is on a lot more upside to come on a Trump win.“

  

  * * *

  By now the big picture should be clear: whether due to his surge in online betting markets, or simply because Kamala’s honeymoon is dead and buried, there has been a rush of sentiment – by people who put money where their mouths – into the Trump Victory/Republican sweep camps, which also largely explains why stocks continue to make new all time highs day after day. However, if one takes a step back and asks a more neutral question without assuming the outcome, such as How will markets react to different US election outcomes?

  To help with the answer, we go to a recent note from Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos (available to pro subscribers), who took recently published Deutsche Bank Research economics estimates of the likely impact of different election outcomes and translated them in to a market reaction across asset classes with a specific focus on FX. The table is intended to capture the immediate market reaction to year-end rather than the long-term impact. Below are DB’s four main conclusions:

  • There is large variance of opinion on the likely market and growth outcomes within the DB team. This largely stems from uncertainty on three fronts: the fiscal outcomes in the event of divided government, the extent to which tariff policy is applied, the medium-term effects of supply side policies relating to regulation, immigration and energy. Even with full certainty on tariff policy for example, the countervailing growth-inflation impact of a negative supply shock creates great ambivalence.
  • The largest variation in fiscal policy and growth outcomes is likely under a Trump administration: a red sweep would likely lead to the largest deficits while divided government could lead to the smallest deficits via the revenue impact of tariffs. By extension, a Trump victory has the most potential to generate the largest market moves in both directions in bond markets.
  • The largest variation in relative growth differentials between the US and the rest of the world is likely under a Trump versus Harris administration, irrespective of the Congressional outcome, due to tariff policy. By extension, the FX market outcome is more clear cut than the bond market in the event of a Trump victory.
  • We see the most bullish dollar outcome as a red sweep and the most bearish dollar outcome on a blue sweep, but the magnitude of the moves is likely larger in the former. There is also likely to be a large degree of variation in market response across different currency pairs: we see the dollar rising across all currency pairs in a red sweep. We see the dollar strong but FX carry trades as most likely to suffer in a Trump victory without Congress. Asia FX is likely to rally the most in the event of a Harris victory without Congress, while the broadest dollar losses would likely be in a Blue Sweep, albeit more limited than the dollar gains in a Red Sweep. We see short EUR/CAD and long MXN/ZAR as the two most asymmetric trades in FX heading in to the election.

  

  Much more int he full notes from JPMorgan, Goldman, UBS and Deutsche Bank

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/20/2024 – 22:45

• West Point Selectively Censors Information In Violation Of Federal Law
  West Point Selectively Censors Information In Violation Of Federal Law

  Authored by Tony Lentini via RealClearDefense,

  Military.com recently carried a story on a West Point cadet facing charges for sexual harassment and sexual assault. The article named names, not just of this one cadet, but also of another cadet charged with sexual misconduct, an officer faculty member facing conduct-related charges and the garrison commander who was acquitted of impaired driving charges.

  

  Yet, after then-Superintendent Robert S. Caslen promised an investigation into why West Point permitted insubordinate communist cadet Spenser Rapone to graduate in 2016, the Army refused to release its findings on the spurious grounds of protecting Rapone’s privacy. This, despite the cadet’s public flouting of his Marxist political sympathies. Moreover, the promised but undelivered investigation was to be not of Rapone himself but of Caslen’s leadership or lack thereof in allowing an avowed communist to graduate. (Caslen subsequently resigned from his post-West-Point civilian job as president of the University of South Carolina for allegedly plagiarizing parts of a speech.)

  In another case, the fate of several cadets who overdosed on cocaine laced with fentanyl on Spring Break two years ago has never been publicly released, again on privacy grounds.  I have an outstanding Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request to determine their final disposition that has been pending for over a year now, despite federal law requiring a response within 20 working days.  West Point’s public affairs officer cited privacy laws as the reason for the Academy’s stonewalling, even though I specifically did not ask for their names, only their punishment.  But their names should be released, as well as their fate, since drug abuse is a serious offense under the Uniform Code of Military Justice and the cadets’ actions publicly discredited the United States Military Academy.

  Something rotten is going on at West Point and within our military.  Why are some names released while others are not?  Why are sexual misconduct allegations and related court filings publicly disseminated while cadet drug abuse and West Point administrative failures are covered up?

  My own FOIA request is now languishing in the “Initial Denial Authority” office of the Secretary of the Army at Ft. Belvoir, Virginia.  Repeated calls and emails to expedite the release of information as to the cocaine-fentanyl cadets’ final disposition have gone unanswered.  A classmate’s five-month-old FOIA request to obtain West Point documents related to the Superintendent’s stated intention to make the Cadet Honor Code “more aspirational” was summarily dismissed by that same office for clearly bogus reasons:  1) That the Academy’s FOIA office had supplied the requested materials (they had not, providing only non-germane items); and 2) That a document search had uncovered no such documents.  By “completely bogus,” I mean that they lied.

  West Point is a federally funded institution.  The Academy, and the military in general, are subject to federal laws, just as the rest of us are.  In fact, even more so, because the U.S. military traditionally and by law is subject to civilian control.  So, why are they permitted to pick and choose which laws to obey and which to willfully ignore?  Why are they permitted to ignore legitimate taxpayer requests for information?  Why the disparity between releasing names in sexual assault cases but not in drug cases and administrative failures?

  What is West Point covering up and why?  When and how will these lawbreaking officials be held to account?  And when is this once proud and honorable institution finally going to come clean?

  Tony Lentini is a 1971 West Point graduate and a founding board member of the MacArthur Society of West Point Graduates.  He served five years in the Army, attaining the rank of captain, and then spent his civilian career in the energy industry, ultimately serving as vice president of public and international affairs for two independent oil and gas exploration and production companies.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/20/2024 – 22:10

• Daniel Penny Subway Chokehold Trial Begins On Monday
  Daniel Penny Subway Chokehold Trial Begins On Monday

  Jordan Neely’s death in a crowded Manhattan subway car made worldwide headlines in May 2023, after bystander footage showed former Marine Daniel Penny restraining the erratic homeless man in a fatal chokehold. The case is finally set to go to trial, with jury selection beginning Monday.

  

  Penny, who has argued that he acted to protect fellow passengers from a menacing Neely, faces charges of second-degree manslaughter and criminally negligent homicide. Neely, a homeless Michael Jackson impersonator with a history of mental illness, died after Penny placed him in a chokehold for several minutes. According to prosecutors – who don’t have to prove intent to kill, Penny acted recklessly in causing Neely’s death.

  Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s office has argued that Penny knew during the encounter that he might kill Neely, even if that was not his intention.

  They’ve cited testimony from a Marine trainer, who told the grand jury that Marines are taught that chokeholds — which are meant to be a “non-lethal” restraint — can sometimes be fatal.

  Prosecutors will also bring up evidence that Penny kept Neely in his chokehold for six minutes, continuing to restrain him even after the homeless man was no longer making purposeful movements.

  “The notion that death is not a foreseeable consequence of squeezing someone’s neck for six minutes is beyond the pale,” the DA’s office wrote in a November 2023 court filing. –NY Post

  Penny, a former infantry squad leader, has maintained that he did not intend to kill Neely, however Bragg’s office only has to convince a jury that Penny “recklessly” caused the death or disregarded a “substantial and unjustifiable risk of death” when he kept Neely in a chokehold for several minutes.

  Julie Rendelman, a former prosecutor, suggested that the prosecution will likely play video footage of the incident in slow motion to underscore Penny’s extended use of force. “I think they really need to break down the scene, literally, second-by-second,” she explained.

  According to Rendelman, prosecutors will make a huge mistake if they try to argue that Neely was “no danger to anyone” before Penny stepped in.

  “You may lose some of those jurors who have been on the train many times, threatened by different individuals on many occasions,” she told the Post. “They really have to approach it in a way that recognizes that, but also recognizes that he went too far.”

  The Defense’s Strategy

  Penny’s defense lawyers, Thomas Kenniff and Steven Raiser, are expected to argue that their client’s actions were justified, pointing to what they describe as Neely’s erratic and threatening behavior. Witnesses recalled Neely shouting that “someone is going to die today” and declaring that he was “ready to go to Rikers.”

  The defense is likely to question the medical examiner’s ruling that Penny’s chokehold directly caused Neely’s death. In an October 2023 motion, the attorneys argued that the examiner never provided specific evidence that Neely died from asphyxiation. Penny’s team may also attempt to introduce evidence of Neely’s drug use, pointing to toxicology reports that indicated Neely had the synthetic drug K2 in his system. While Penny’s lawyers acknowledge that the reports do not specify the quantity, they suggest that the drug could have been a contributing factor.

  Who Will Testify?

  According to the report, there will be several witnesses who were on the train, police officers who responded to the scene, and detectives who interviewed Penny. The city medical examiner’s office will likely present its findings, and the prosecution may call psychological experts to shed light on Penny’s mindset during the encounter.

  A looming question is whether Penny himself will take the stand. Legal observers are divided on the wisdom of this move, but Rendelman said, “I think he probably needs to testify,” adding “This is one of the cases where it is likely that the jury is going to want to hear from Penny, because part of that justification is going to be about what he perceived at the time that the events were happening.”

  The Stakes and Challenges

  If convicted of second-degree manslaughter, Penny could face up to 15 years in prison. A conviction on the lesser charge of criminally negligent homicide carries a maximum sentence of four years. The final decision on sentencing would rest with Manhattan Supreme Court Justice Maxwell Wiley.

  Jury selection is expected to be a critical phase, as prospective jurors’ own experiences on the subway could shape their views. “Jury selection is always a big part of any case, but for this one in particular, multiply that by 10,” said Brooklyn prosecutor Jason Goldman.

  And according to Rendelman, “at the end of the day, one of their arguments is going to be even if you assume that initially – Daniel Penny’s argument that self defense is true, there was a point in time where there was no longer self-defense protection.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/20/2024 – 21:35

• Ten Lessons On US Foreign Policy
  Ten Lessons On US Foreign Policy

  Authored by Rhesa Browning via The Mises Institute,

  Enough Already by Scott Horton is a must-read for anyone who wants to know the truth about US foreign policy in the Middle East for the last 35 years. Horton starts his exposé with the 9/11 tragedy, and then details all the terror wars up until today. Among all the facts and figures, Horton teaches ten important lessons.

  

  Each chapter focuses on a specific country, but these lessons are woven throughout each.

  Lesson 1—The US is Not Loyal to Its Allies

  “If you want to know who America’s next enemy is, look at who we are funding right now.”—Dave Smith

  I used to think this statement was an oversimplification, but it is deadly accurate. Our government routinely makes allies only to turn around and attack them years later. One clear example is what would become al Qaeda. In the 1980s, the US armed Afghan resistance fighters to oppose Russia in Afghanistan. After 9/11, al Qaeda became the archenemy of the US. Then, about ten years later, they started arming them again to fight in Iraq and in Syria.

  In Afghanistan, the US supported the Taliban during the Clinton administration. Then multiple presidents fought a 20-year war against them only to give full control of Afghanistan back to the Taliban in 2021.

  The US followed the same pattern with Iraq. The US armed them against Iran during the 1980s. They supported Hussein all the way to Iraq War I in 1990. Then they bombed and sanctioned the country until they captured him in 2003 and had him executed.

  Lesson 2—The US Prolongs Wars

  Without US involvement in the Middle East, both sides in a conflict would be similar in strength and have less resources to continue. In the Yemen War, the US sends arms to Saudi Arabia, who then sends them to their allies in Yemen to fight the Houthis, even though the Houthis “won” years ago. Take the US out of the equation and the Saudi’s allies wouldn’t be able to continue the war.

  The same thing happened in Somalia when the US armed Ethiopian forces to invade. Continued US support incentivized the Ethiopian groups to continue fighting after it started. Outside the Middle East, this lesson played out the exact same way in the Ukraine-Russia war. Plus, the US stopped peace negotiations between Zelensky and Putin through their proxy Boris Johnson.

  Lesson 3—The US Justifies Starting Wars with Nonsense

  The best example is Iraq War II. One of the main intellectual justifications for attacking Iraq in 2003 was a white paper titled “A Clean Break,” written by David Wurmser. In it he dreams that if the US military would overthrow Iraq’s Baathist Party, they could set up a government and form close allies in the region. He then imagined that Syria and Lebanon would prefer to follow a US puppet regime in Iraq over Iran, and that the new Shia Iraqi government would unite more closely with the US than Iran. However, they were never going to prefer a secular Western government over fellow Muslims. Contrary to Wurmser’s mythology, Iraq immediately allied with Iran and the rest of the Shia world instead of the US.

  We also all know about the false accusations the Bush Administration made to garner support for Iraq War II. They fabricated stories about Iraq having chemical and biological weapons, and about Hussein collaborating with al Qaeda.

  Lesson 4—The US Causes the Problems They Claim to Prevent

  The clearest example of this is Libya in 2011. The US government justified their intervention saying that, without it, Muammar Gadhafi would massacre his own civilians in response to al Qaeda-aligned rebels opposing his rule. However, US involvement in the conflict caused civilian massacres instead of preventing them. The US-backed rebels terrorized civilians wherever they gained control and instituted a new slave system.

  Lesson 5—The US-Led Terror Wars Don’t Defend America

  After 9/11, the Taliban offered to help the US capture Osama Bin Laden. Instead of working with the Taliban to avenge the lives of dead Americans, they attacked Afghanistan to conquer the country and install a Western-style government. It demonstrated the purpose was to build an empire, not to defend America.

  The US waged many of the subsequent wars to benefit Israel and Saudi Arabia. The US fought Iraq War III and the Syrian War to reduce Iran’s influence in the region for this purpose. Another reason the US started Iraq War II was to open land for a new pipeline from Iraq to Israel. 

  In the Yemen War, the Houthis were enemies of Saudi Arabia, not the US. The US still dutifully sent in weapons.

  Lesson 6—The US Lies about Every Aspect of These Wars

  They lie about why we should stay, they lie about status updates, they lie about the groups they support. In one of Scott Horton’s radio commercials, he states, “they lied us into war, all of them.” It applies to every aspect of these wars.

  In 2012, the US government showed they were willing to lie in the most insane ways. They blamed the attack on the US consulate in Benghazi on an anti-Islamic video made by an Egyptian-American from Los Angeles. They even threw him in jail for almost a year based on spurious “probation violations” charges. In reality, the terrorists attacked to exact revenge for secret raids against them coordinated by Obama’s counter-terrorism adviser John Brennan. Further, US officials were in Benghazi to transfer weapons from Libya to Syria, between radical Islamists. That led to another lie calling ISIS “moderate” rebels.

  Lesson 7 – The US-Led Terror Wars Produce More Terrorists

  The US military interventions in the Middle East have created more terrorists. In September 2001, al Qaeda consisted of 400 people hiding in eastern Afghanistan. Scott Horton doesn’t give an exact number of their numbers today (though some have estimated at least over 20,000), but he listed al Qaeda-affiliated organizations operating all over the Middle East. Just about every country mentioned in Enough Already now has al Qaeda or Bin Ladenite-style forces in it. Ironically, al Qaeda’s presence in Afghanistan is at another low point now that the Taliban is back in control.

  Lesson 8—The US Primarily Kills Civilians 

  The book throughout presents death and casualty numbers for these wars. Based on those numbers, they roughly kill about 100 times more civilians than combatants. During the 1990s, US bombings and sanctions killed around 500,000 Iraqi civilians. Drone strikes in Pakistan often targeted civilians based on faulty intelligence. Even when they hit terrorists, civilians die because the strikes hit public spaces or community gatherings. Tens of thousands of Yemeni civilians have died because of the war and the blockade resulting in mass starvation there. US-backed al Qaeda forces killed thousands of civilians during the Libyan Civil War of 2011. The same exact thing happened in Syria as ISIS was notorious for massacring civilians in the areas they conquered.

  Lesson 9—The US has Lost Every War It Started in the Middle East

  They haven’t “won” one war in the Middle East. The war in Afghanistan ended with the US giving the country back to the Taliban. In Yemen, the Houthis won and continue to control the main population centers. In Mali, Somalia, and Libya, al Qaeda-affiliated groups are in power. The closest thing to a US victory is Libya since they armed al Qaeda to take out Gadhafi. In Syria, Bashar Al Assad is still in power. Even though the US was successful in deposing Saddam Hussein, the current government is strongly allied with Iran over the US. With such a list of failures the only sensible path is to pursue peaceful interactions.

  Lesson 10—The US Terror Wars Hurt Americans

  The wars hurt normal American citizens in several different ways. Most directly, 7000 American soldiers have been killed with more wounded. Thousands more are suicidal and living lives of desperation because of PTSD.

  The factor affecting most Americans is that the US government pays for military interventions through inflation, debt, and taxation. Simply put, they are stealing from us. As a result, it has become harder for Americans to purchase a home or build a family. This lack of economic opportunity also affects crime rates and homelessness.

  Last, the tools used in those foreign wars are now used on American citizens. The most serious threats to our liberty come from the PATRIOT Act, police militarization, and the NDAA, which allows the government to jail citizens with no due process. I would say that we’ve had enough already. It’s time to end the war on terrorism and every other war we are supporting in the world.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/20/2024 – 21:00

• Trump Considers No Taxes For Police Officers, Firefighters And Military
  Trump Considers No Taxes For Police Officers, Firefighters And Military

  The race to shock and awe with the greatest number of tax cuts ahead of the November 5 election is nearing its climax.

  Donald Trump said he’d consider exempting police officers, firefighters, active duty military and veterans from paying taxes, the Republican nominee’s latest campaign trail idea to deliver tax breaks to key groups of supporters.

  “It’s something I would think about,” Trump said in response to a question about excluding first responders and military members from tax bills on an online show Maintaining with Tyrus that aired Friday.

  

  “You’re like my tax person there, but yeah. I mean something has to be done,” he said. “It’s almost an incentive to where you can get people interested.”

  The idea to exempt members of the military and first responders from taxation is the latest in a long list of tax proposals Trump has talked about while campaigning against Kamala Harris. He’s pledged to i) eliminate taxes on tipped wages, ii) taxes on overtime pay and iii) taxes on Social Security benefits.

  To be sure, Trump didn’t give any more details about the service member tax exclusion, and any such ideas would require congressional approval in order to become law, which is why absent a Republican sweep most of Trump’s promises will end up as being just hot air.

  The no-taxes-on-military-and-first-responders idea could be among the largest new tax cuts he’s discussed to date, exempting more than 20 million people from federal tax payments. According to Bloomberg, there are about 18 million living veterans in the US, roughly 1.3 million active duty troops, approximately 1 million police offers in the US and more than 300,000 professional firefighters, according to several estimates. The US does offer some broad tax exemption to military members, but that is largely limited to people who are serving in active combat zones.

  Over the last several months, Trump has rolled out a steady drumbeat of politically beneficial tax cut plans focused on key election constituencies, as a way to appeal to voters in an extremely tight election — particularly, low-and-middle-income Americans frustrated by high prices. The Republican nominee has thrown out such a wide range of tax proposals that even his own advisers are unsure about which ones he intends to enact if elected.

  Now that it is clear that neither candidate gives a rat’s ass about the war-time US budget deficit which just hit a mindblowing 6% of GDP despite US GDP allegedly growing at a 3%+ rate…

  

  … Trump it taking his tax break promises to the limit while also campaigning on extending the tax cut first passed when he was president. Major portions of that law, including lower tax brackets for households and deductions for small businesses, are set to expire at the end of 2025. Trump has also pledged to further lower the corporate rate to 15% from 21% and expand the state and local tax deduction, a write-off popular in New York and California where Republicans face close House elections to keep their majority in the chamber.

  Economists have warned that his policy portfolio may balloon the federal debt, adding as much as $15 trillion to the debt over the next decade, according to an estimate from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Trump contends that economic growth and energy production would offset the loss in tax revenue.

  Of course, the only other presidential candidate that could balloon the federal debt more than Trump is Kamala Harris, whose admin has seen US debt grow by $8 trillion, with US debt growth set to double or triple if her promises of reparations to blacks are realized.

  In the Friday interview, Trump also suggested military members should become teachers when asked about measures to secure schools.

  “So what about teachers that are in the military and they’re teachers, they leave the military, they become history teachers,” Trump said. “They’re in the room and they get to know the students and they know how to use a gun. You can’t have people that don’t have any idea about what to do with guns.”

  Some states, including Iowa and Tennessee, have passed laws allowing teachers to carry concealed weapons on school campuses, a controversial measure that has faced broad criticism from teachers unions and some parents, who say that will make schools less safe.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/20/2024 – 20:25

• Bovard: The Democrats' Three-Decade War On Honest Voting
  Bovard: The Democrats’ Three-Decade War On Honest Voting

  Authored by James Bovard,

  When did preventing election fraud become a violation of the Voting Rights Act?

  

  According to President Joe Biden’s Justice Department, it is now a federal crime to prevent illegal ballots in presidential elections. 

  Barely 30 days before the 2024 election, the Justice Department sued the state of Virginia to prohibit its removal of the names of noncitizens from voting rolls. Gov. Glenn Youngkin was enforcing a 2006 Virginia law, but the Biden administration portrayed that action as an attack on “the cornerstone of our democracy.” Youngkin denounced the federal lawsuit as “a desperate attempt to attack the legitimacy of the elections” in Virginia.

  The Virginia lawsuit is simply the latest in Democrats’ long war against honest voting, which began with the Clinton administration’s Motor Voter Act. That 1993 law mandated voter registration in every welfare and food-stamp office in the nation. Brent Thompson, executive director of the Fair Government Foundation, observed in 1996, “The Motor Voter law did away with a panoply of anti-fraud mechanisms long relied on by the states to police and deter fraudulent voting.”

  In 2015, the Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton condemned voter identification requirements as part of a “sweeping effort to disempower and disenfranchise people of color, poor people and young people.” A Washington Post headline aptly summarized her message: “Hillary Clinton Declares War on Voter ID.” Verifying identification was unnecessary because, as long as enough ballots showed up with a check by Hillary’s name, she would be irrevocably entitled to all the power she could seize in the following four years. 

  Lax voting procedures in some states were insufficient to enable Hillary to capture the White House. But the panic induced by Covid-19 enabled politicians to radically loosen the rules for the next presidential election. Many states made it easier—if not automatic—to vote by mail, even though a 2012 New York Times analysis concluded that “fraud in voting by mail is… vastly more prevalent than the in-person voting fraud that has attracted far more attention.” Some states abandoned any effort to verify mail ballots, dropping requirements for matching signatures, return addresses, or having a witness verify the person and the vote. Civil Rights Commissioner J. Christian Adams noted that “Democrats succeeded in tossing out state laws related to absentee ballot verification, deadlines and a whole range of laws all in the name of Covid.”

  Neither the Elections Clause of the U.S. Constitution (rules for federal elections “shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof”) nor state law stopped the rigging of the 2020 vote. Michigan sent “unsolicited absentee-voter ballot applications by mail to all 7.7 million registered Michigan voters…without signature verification as expressly required” by state law. The Wisconsin Elections Commission approved setting up to 500 unmanned ballot drop boxes in major Democratic cities in violation of Wisconsin law. That commission  and local election officials encouraged all Wisconsin “voters to unlawfully declare themselves ‘indefinitely confined’—which under Wisconsin law allows the voter to avoid security measures like signature verification and photo ID requirements,” as the Texas Attorney General noted in a brief to the U.S. Supreme Court. The Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled that election officials acted illegally, but that did nothing to nullify the hundreds of thousands of votes that came in via illicit loopholes. Biden carried Wisconsin by 20,000 votes.

  

  To stifle controversy over electoral rule changes, Biden’s media allies created a fairy tale. A week after Election Day, the New York Times ran a banner headline across the top of the front page: “Election Officials Nationwide Find No Fraud.” How did the Times know? Their reporters basically called election officials in each state and asked, “Did y’all have any fraud?” A total lack of fraud in an election with more than 100 million voters would have required divine intervention to achieve. Biden’s 2020 victory became the election equivalent of the Immaculate Conception. A Washington Post headline scoffed that anyone who doubted Biden’s victory was an “Election Denier”—placing them in the same odious category as Holocaust deniers. An ABC News analysis portrayed distrust of the election results as a form of mental illness.

  Most of the American media pretended that voter fraud was so rare that the mere suggestion of its occurrence was a heresy against democracy. But a few weeks after Biden was sworn in as president, a federal investigation revealed that the U.S. government bankrolled some of the most brazenly corrupt elections in modern times. The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), issued a report titled, “Elections: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan,” that should have received far more attention in Washington and beyond. SIGAR revealed that the net result of 15 years of U.S. pro-democracy assistance was that Afghanistan’s 2019 presidential election was “the most corrupt the country had ever held.” U.S. tax dollars poured into the coffers of Afghanistan’s Electoral Complaints Commission to safeguard voting, but that agency was a prime source of the most shameless vote stealing. U.S. aid enabled the Afghan government to purchase sophisticated electronic voting systems. But SIGAR’s report warned that “because governments often control electoral commissions and the procurement of election technology, they are well placed to use it to commit fraud.” SIGAR ruefully noted, “The true purpose of adopting election technologies may not be to actually reduce fraud, but to create the illusion of doing so.” A U.S. Army colonel who deployed several times to Afghanistan told SIGAR that as early as 2006, the Afghan government had “self-organized into a kleptocracy.” Officials who were stealing everything else never hesitated to steal votes. The collapse of democratic legitimacy paved the way for the collapse of the U.S. puppet regime in Kabul in August 2021.

  The Biden administration sought to exploit Covid-era precedents to turn America into a Drop Box Democracy where minimal efforts by voters automatically sanctify maximum power for politicians. In 2021, the House of Representatives passed H.R. 1, the For the People Act, to force all states to adopt the most unreliable electoral procedures used during the pandemic. The bill, which failed in the Senate, would have compelled all future federal elections to permit paid ballot-harvesting and universal mail-in voting, prohibit checking voter identification, and require states to count ballots that arrive ten days after an election. Many of the same Democrats who championed Covid vaccine passports, which disproportionately barred blacks from restaurants and gyms, also insist that requiring voters to show identification is Jim Crow at its worst.

  Histrionics and shenanigans continue to be the Democrats’ preferred substitute for election integrity:

  • Kamala Harris objected to voter identification requirements because she bizarrely claimed it was “almost impossible” for rural voters to photocopy their identification papers.
  • The city of Detroit responded to a Republican National Party Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request for ballot drop box surveillance footage by claiming that the footage had been deleted—after the FOIA request was received. Detroit was notorious for shrouding its vote counting on Election Night 2020, blocking poll watchers from witnessing Biden’s miraculous comeback.
  • In Georgia, Judge Thomas Cox on Wednesday struck down the Georgia State Election Board’s new rules to require video surveillance of ballot drop boxes and to regulate ballot-harvesting.
  • Lawsuits are proceeding regarding lax standards for absentee mail-in ballots in North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Texas, and elsewhere.

  Preventing bogus ballots should not be treated like a moral or theological issue. When did verifying votes become a crime against democracy? Why is the Justice Department crusading to turn voting into an entitlement program for non-citizens? Do Democrats seek to make the actual voting as fraud-ridden as politicians’ campaign promises?  Elections need rigorous safeguards against fraud because, as Thomas Paine warned long ago, “the trade of governing has always been monopolized by… the most rascally individuals of mankind.” Four presidential elections since 2000 have been heavily tainted by allegations of foul play. American democracy has zero legitimacy to spare at this point.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/20/2024 – 19:50

• Leaked US Intel Confirms Israeli Nuclear Weapons
  Leaked US Intel Confirms Israeli Nuclear Weapons

  Via Common Dreams

  “We have not observed indications that Israel intends to use a nuclear weapon.” That sentence is the concluding line from an allegedly leaked (or hacked) U.S. intelligence document posted online this week and later reported on by Axios, CNN, and other outlets.

  As Axios reported on Saturday, “U.S. officials are extremely concerned about a potentially major security breach after two alleged U.S. intelligence documents about Israel’s preparations for an attack on Iran were published by a Telegram account affiliated with Iran.”

  

  The Associated Press and independent investigative journalist Ken Klippenstein both cited government sources who said the documents appeared to be authentic. While U.S. officials have yet to comment publicly on the material, reporting confirmed an investigation into their authenticity and how they came to be in the public domain was underway.

  Since a barrage of missile strikes aimed at military targets in Israel by Iran on Oct 1, a retaliatory strike in response to Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and other attacks, the world has been waiting for Israel’s promised military response.

  Assuming the documents are authentic, what they show is that U.S. intelligence—as is well known and despite being close allies—keeps a close and clandestine eye on Israeli military operations.

  CNN cited an unnamed U.S. official who called the documents being made public “deeply concerning,” though the outlet did not publish the documents in full. The documents, according to CNN,

  are marked top secret and have markings indicating they are meant to be seen only by the US and its “Five Eyes” allies — Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom.

  They describe preparations Israel appears to be making for a strike against Iran. One of the documents, which says it was compiled by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, says the plans involve Israel moving munitions around.

  Another document says it is sourced to the National Security Agency and outlines Israeli air force exercises involving air-to-surface missiles, also believed to be in preparation for a strike on Iran. CNN is not quoting directly from or showing the documents.

  NEW: A set of classified U.S. intelligence documents purporting to show information about Israel’s plans to strike in Iran have been confirmed as authentic in a report by CNN (https://t.co/8AVOexA1Y8).

  Drop Site News has also been reviewing these documents since they were posted… pic.twitter.com/VKOEq9qcbo

  — Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) October 19, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  It has long been known that Israel has a nuclear weapons program and maintains a nuclear arsenal, but it remains both Israeli and U.S. government policy never to acknowledge or confirm the existence of either. In one of the documents, the U.S. specifically references Israel’s ability to deploy a nuclear weapon, though it categorizes the threat of doing so in this case as low.

  Independent journalist Ken Klippenstein, recently banned from X for posting an internal opposition research dossier that the Trump campaign had compiled on JD Vance, posted images of both documents to his substack page, as he excoriated major outlets for refusing to do.

  “As with the J.D. Vance Dossier, which the entire media knew about but refused to publish, it appears the media has once again lost its nerve – and its sense of what’s news,” Klippenstein wrote.

  According to Klippenstein’s assessment:

  The intelligence report includes a rundown of the various aspects of Israeli military activities that the U.S. is monitoring to inform its judgments and conclusions: weapons handling, air defense, ground forces, Navy, Air, Special Forces, and even Israel’s Nuclear Forces. But even then, only the weapons handling and special forces categories are identified as having a “medium” predictive ability in regards to determining Israel’s action; the rest are designated “low” predictive ability.

  The second intelligence report is titled “Israel: Air Force Continues Preparations for Strike on Iran and Conducts a Second Large-Force Employment Exercise.” The document details Israeli activities during an evident “mission rehearsal” (in U.S. lingo) that could be indicative of how Israel will strike Iran. Citing imagery analysis and other sources, the NGA report notes that the Israeli Air Force is already conducting covert drone operations over Iran (evidently doing its own spying), and how, as part of Israeli Air Force activity, has been handling air-launched ballistic missiles and other weapons.

  From the leaked US intel documents: “we did not observe any Jericho II medium-range ballistic missiles … we have not observed any indications that Israel intends to use a nuclear weapon”. Notice the NF – no foreigners – marking for that paragraph. https://t.co/Bkfq9KtWew pic.twitter.com/YE9IFKN301

  — Shashank Joshi (@shashj) October 20, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Defending release of the full documents, he explained that both provide “insight of enormous public interest as we stand at the precipice of a broader conflict” and contained “information that directly bears upon U.S. obligations and actions. It is for that reason that I’ve decided to publish the basic documents.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/20/2024 – 19:15

• The Danger To The Dollar Isn't The Euro Or Yuan
  The Danger To The Dollar Isn’t The Euro Or Yuan

  Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

  Russia GDP is now estimated at +3.8 percent, topping the US, despite sanctions. What’s going on?

  

  Russia’s War Economy

  Eurointelligence discusses Russia’s War Economy

  It is worth looking at the autumn forecast for Russia by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, one of the best sources of economic information for central and eastern Europe. They upgraded their growth forecast for this year by 0.6pp to 3.8%. Russia is outgrowing all western economies, including the US. Growth is forecast to slow down to 2.5% next year because of the impact of a 19% interest rate. It is clear that Russia’s economic expansion is a classic case of a wartime Keynesian effect.

  It is also interesting to contrast Russia’s economic development with that of Ukraine’s main supporters in Europe, which have entered into synchronised austerity, first in Germany, and now in France and the UK.

  Russia’s fiscal stability is perhaps the biggest surprise. Defence spending is on trajectory towards 6% of GDP. And yet, the 2024 budget deficit is projected at 1.5%, falling to 1% in 2025.

  Vasily Astrov, the Russia expert at WIIW, concludes that Putin will have money for the foreseeable future to continue financing the war against Ukraine. A rise in income and corporate tax has meant that Russia’s state finance will become less dependent on energy.

  Financial sanctions are ultimately not as successful as their advocates once believed because money is not a natural global monopoly. International banks are certainly susceptible to US dollar sanctions. But not all banks in the world operate in dollar markets. The use of secondary sanctions has become a first-order instrument in the US’s diplomatic toolkit in this century. But it falls into the category of instruments which lose their value the more you use them. Even amongst US economists, we see a lot of complacency about this. It was friction combined with network effects that favoured the emergency of a single dominating currency – the pound sterling, the dollar later. The danger to the dollar is not the euro, or renminbi. It is that micro-channels are becoming viable as technology reduces the frictions.

  Lessons of the Day

  • The more you depend on sanctions, the less they work.

  • That’s the real risk to the dollar.

  Here’s a Repeat Lesson on Why Sanctions Fail

  On September 26, I commented To Those Hard of Learning, Here’s a Repeat Lesson on Why Sanctions Fail

  In that post I refuted a claim that sanction failures are due to a lack of political will.

  Also see my September 19, 2023: Lesson of the Day: Sanctions Don’t Work Because They Create New Markets

  A person who touted a buyer’s cartel sanction success, now complains the buyers cartel leaks like a sieve.

  Finally, please see How China Gets Around US Sanctions on Semiconductors

  US sanctions backfire again. China is stronger as a result.

  Russia’s GDP shows just how badly misguided and overused sanctions have worked.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/20/2024 – 18:40

• One Of Israel's Most Senior Commanders Dies In Gaza; Hamas Readies Sinwar Successor 
  One Of Israel’s Most Senior Commanders Dies In Gaza; Hamas Readies Sinwar Successor 

  A high-ranking Israeli military officer was killed while fighting in Gaza on Sunday, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced the same day.

  Colonel Ehsan Daqsa, 41, was commander of Israel’s 401st Armoured Brigade, and died when his tank was targeted by explosive devices during operations inside Jabalia refugee camp. Reports suggest an improvised explosive device (IED) detonated when a group of officers stood outside of their tanks.

  

  Another Israeli soldier was seriously wounded in the same incident, which involved a second tank being blown up.

  It remains somewhat rare that a colonel (and brigade commander) would be involved in leading operations directly in the battle zone in Gaza. Col. Daqsa has been identified as one of the most senior officers to have been killed in over a year of Gaza operations.

  The Times of Israel reports of the details of his death: “An IDF probe into the death of Daqsa found that he was outside his tank with other officers when they were hit by an explosive device in Jabaliya, as part of an ongoing offensive there against Hamas.”

  This strongly suggests that despite the death of Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’ top leader in Gaza, Hamas militants are still fighting fiercely and are not relenting.

  Western leaders used the opportunity of Sinwar’s death last week to call for urgent ceasefire and the return of the Israeli hostages remaining in Gaza, but at this point it seems a distant prospect.

  Fighting could actually intensify in the wake of Sinwar’s death, given he has been held up among Palestinians in Gaza as a martyr and a hero, who went down fighting till the end.

  Meanwhile it looks like Hamas and its external backers are already readying to name a successor: 

  Hamas is likely to name Qatar-based Khalil al-Hayya as a successor to slain leader Yahya Sinwar, aligning it closer to Iran and giving its main backer more sway in the next stage of the group’s war with Israel.

  Al-Hayya is a protégé of Ismail Haniyeh, Sinwar’s predecessor who was believed to have been assassinated by Israel in Tehran in July. He has been leading indirect negotiations with Israel over both a cease-fire in Gaza and the release of hostages kidnapped by Hamas during the Oct. 7 attacks last year, which triggered the ongoing conflict.

  Currently there’s very heavy fighting in and around Jabaliya, which is a few kilometers north of Gaza City.

  Jabalia |

  Israeli soldiers of the 432 battalion share on their private accounts scenes showing them burning Hamed School, Next to Indonesi Hospital in Jabalia RC.

  The smoke rising from the school was filmed by Palestinian journalists near the area. pic.twitter.com/gpsZ7yzjWR

  — Younis Tirawi | يونس (@ytirawi) October 20, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Israeli airstrikes have pummeled the area, providing cover for tank and ground forces, but several reports over the past days have pointed to huge civilian casualties, with dozens killed.

  Some 400,000 people are reportedly in Jabalia camp, and there are reports that the military siege has cut off most supplies of food, water, and medicine.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/20/2024 – 18:05

• The Key To Happiness In America?
  The Key To Happiness In America?

  In the United States, having a job or career that you enjoy is considered a key cornerstone for leading a fulfilling life.

  As Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, according to a survey by Pew Research Center, 71 percent of respondents said that having a job or career that they like is either extremely or very important to feeling satisfied with their lot.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  The next most popular perceived element for a fulfilling life was having close friends, with 61 percent of respondents picking the option.

  Having children, a lot of money or getting married were less highly rated.

  In the case of having children, 42 percent of respondents said it was not important, while 44 percent said marriage was not important.

  Women were slightly more likely than men to say that their job or career is important to achieving a feeling of fulfillment, at 74 percent compared to their counterparts’ 69 percent.

  Men were slightly more likely to say having children (29 percent versus women’s 22 percent) or marriage (28 percent for men versus 18 percent for women) were key to such perceived metrics of success.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/20/2024 – 16:55

• CNN Panelist Says White People Should Be "Held Accountable" If They Don't Vote For Kamala
  CNN Panelist Says White People Should Be “Held Accountable” If They Don’t Vote For Kamala

  Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

  A CNN commentator declared Saturday that white people who don’t vote to “save democracy” won’t be able to “escape the accountability that they must face.”

  

  The remarks were made by Angela Rye during a discussion on the network in which she attempted to move blame for Harris’ dismal polling numbers away from black men.

  Rye stated “The responsibility of saving democracy should be on the largest demographic in this country that is white men and white women.“

  NEW: CNN commentator Angela Rye says white people who don’t vote for Kamala Harris need to be held accountable.

  Rye says that white people who don’t vote to “save democracy” can’t “escape the accountability that they must face.”

  The comments came while Rye was trying to… pic.twitter.com/eam8Ujvv5f

  — Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 19, 2024

  “Saving Democracy” by expressing a desire to get rid of it again.

  Angela Rye forgot democracy is about voting for who you believe in, not being guilt-tripped into voting for Kamala.

  — OneXOneY (@OneXOneY) October 19, 2024

  She said “it’s a mistake to let white folks escape accountability “

  Nobody (black or white ) should be reprimanded for not voting for Scamala Harris or anybody else.

  Voting is individual choice.

  Smh https://t.co/5kdWNkQmun

  — Jeylani Brown (@BrownJeylani) October 19, 2024

  Also a bit racist no?

  Kamala’s supporters are the most racist people in America. They’re merely echoing what they are guilty of.

  — Juanita Broaddrick (@atensnut) October 19, 2024

  Black people not expressing enthusiasm for Harris is white people’s fault.

  White people responsible for white people votes AND black people votes.

  LOL

  She’s a clown and @CNN should be embarrassed for having her on.

  — MissUSA1776 (@real_miss_kim) October 19, 2024

  Maybe Obama needs to drop by to give them a stern lecture.

  How, exactly should white people be held accountable?

  Come and try to “hold me accountable” Angela…whatever that means…

  — jim iuorio (@jimiuorio) October 19, 2024

  It’s not rocket science as to why Americans, regardless of skin colour, don’t want to vote for Kamala.

  People want to be able to afford groceries again.. It’s that simple

  — aka (@akafacehots) October 19, 2024

  Every time one of these people opens their mouth, it only helps one side.

  These race obsessed bigots can keep spreading their new racism all they want – it wins more people to our side.

  We want the individual “character” dream of Martin Luther King – not this new age collectivism and group identity pushed by Marxist academics.

  — Craig Chamberlin (@CraigChamberlin) October 19, 2024

  *  *  *

  Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/20/2024 – 16:20

• Russia's Largest Explosives Plant Attacked In Night Of Over 100 Drones
  Russia’s Largest Explosives Plant Attacked In Night Of Over 100 Drones

  On Sunday Russia’s defense ministry (MoD) announced that over 100 Ukrainian drones were downed over several regions of Russia overnight, as Kiev’s cross-border drone operations have persisted and even been ramped up. Some apparently made it through, however.

  The military and its anti-air defense systems had thwarted “an attempt by the Kiev regime to carry out a terrorist attack using an aircraft-type UAV against targets on the territory of the Russian Federation,” the ministry said.

  

  Most of the inbound drones were intercepted over the Kursk region, scene of Ukraine’s cross-border ground assault which has been unfolding since August.

  In particular the MoD tallied that it intercepted or destroyed 110 UAVs, and nearly half of these were downed over Kursk not far from the border.

  Dozens of other drones were intercepted over Lipetsk Region, and Nizhny Novgoro and Oryol Regions. One was also downed near Moscow.

  The intended targets of the Saturday night attacks included more energy infrastructure and military sites and likely airports.

  But there are reports that some of the drones made it through Russian defenses, including on Russia’s “largest explosives factory”. Located in Nizhny Novgorod, the sprawling state-owned complex appears to have been hit:

  A source in Ukraine’s SBU security service told Newsweek that drones belonging to the agency, as well as Kyiv’s special operations forces and its GUR military intelligence arm, “struck the Sverdlov plant” in the city of Dzerzhinsk overnight, just west of the regional capital in Russia’s Nizhny Novgorod region.

  Nizhny Novgorod Regional Governor Gleb Nikitin said on Sunday that air defenses and electronic warfare systems had repelled a drone attack around the “industrial zone” in Dzerzhinsk. He did not specify the target of the attack.

  Several Russian Telegram channels, often used as sources of information in lieu of official statements, reported that Ukraine had targeted the Sverdlov explosives, chemicals and ammunition factory in Dzerzhinsk.

  Drone attack on the Sverdlov ammo factory in Dzerzhinsk,
  🇷🇺 Nizhny Novgorod Region pic.twitter.com/HQa9mdXaqQ

  — C4H10FO2P ☠️ (@markito0171) October 20, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Russia’s military has downplayed these reports, saying only that “four employees of the fire department located on the territory of the industrial enterprise received minor shrapnel wounds.”

  But videos purporting to have captured the alleged drone strikes show a large fireball lighting up the night sky over Dzerzhinsk.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/20/2024 – 15:45

• "Imagine What Government Agencies Could Look Like In 4 Years"
  “Imagine What Government Agencies Could Look Like In 4 Years”

  By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

  “Imagine what government agencies could look like in 4yrs,” wrote an X employee as a caption for two images, presented side-by-side. On the left was a SpaceX Raptor engine from 2020, the mechanics of it a jumbled mess, wildly intricate, but still impressive, functional. On the right was the 2024 version of that same Raptor engine, its mechanics simple, sleek, as elegant as one could rightly imagine. More powerful, efficient.

  And Elon, fresh off the maiden return of a Starship Super Heavy booster, reposted the dual image, captioned with a single word: “Yup”.

  Yup https://t.co/K07j8mxx0t

  — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 17, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “This is a custom-built tower with arms that are designed to catch the largest flying and heaviest flying object ever made and pluck it out of the air,” said Elon, pre-launch, his magnificent Starship on the launchpad, the largest and most powerful flying object ever made with more than 2x the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket.

  Elon Musk explains the Mechazilla arms

  “This is a custom-built tower with arms that are designed to catch the largest flying and heaviest flying object ever made and pluck it outta the air.”
  pic.twitter.com/IdNSxeMiAG

  — Tesla Owners Silicon Valley (@teslaownersSV) October 14, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “It’ll weigh about 250 tons. We’ll make that lighter over time,” pledged the immigrant from South Africa, now suing the state of California for limiting his ability to increase SpaceX’s launch pace for purely political reasons.

  Even Democrat Governor Newsom came out in support of Elon on this one, chastising his own bureaucratic appointees, as the political winds show signs of shifting.

  “You got a couple hundred tons plummeting at more than half the speed of sound. So this thing is still coming in really fast,” said Musk, his Super Heavy Booster as tall as a 19-story building. “When the engines land… it’s gonna drop the velocity to basically zero and come in between the arms,” he said, describing the landing into his Mechanzilla.

  “The arms will be wide, and as it’s coming in, the arms will, will close, go flush against the side of the vehicle, and the vehicle will be descending through the arms,” said Elon, as Christine Lagarde cut rates 25 one hundredths of one percent, for the third time this year in an attempt to revive Europe’s moribund economy, admitting that she has not yet broken the neck of inflation, but believes she’s in the process of doing so. And as China pledged to print 4trln yuan ($562bln) in additional support for housing projects to try and support its slowly suffocating economy.

  “Excitement guaranteed, success is possible,” said Elon, willing to embrace the uncertain outcome, the risk of televised failure. “It is important in this often difficult and troubled world for there to be things that also inspire and make you feel great to be part of humanity.”

  It is important in this often difficult and troubled world for there to be things that also inspire and make you feel great to be part of humanity

  — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 14, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Progress

  “A fully and rapidly reusable rocket is barely possible. SpaceX is going to try to do it. We could fail, but we’re going to try to do it,” declared Musk in 2013. “The pivotal breakthrough that’s necessary, that some company has to come up with to make life multiplanetary, is a fully and rapidly reusable orbit-class rocket. This is a very difficult thing to do because we live on a planet where that is just barely possible. If gravity were a little lower, it would be easy. If it was a little higher, it would be impossible. It’s just a very tough engineering problem.”

  “I wasn’t sure it could be solved for a while. But then, relatively recently, probably in the last twelve months or so, I’ve come to the conclusion that it can be solved,” continued Elon racing forward, pursuing his American Dream. “And I think, SpaceX is going to try to do it. Now, we could fail. I’m not saying we’re certain of success here, but we’re going to try to do it. And we have a design that, on paper, doing the calculations, doing the simulations, it does work. And now, we need to make sure that those simulations and reality agree, because generally when they don’t, reality wins.”

  “The strong gravity of Earth makes the physics of a fully reusable rocket with positive payload margin extremely difficult to solve, which is why it has never been done before,” said Elon in 2014. “Removing the mass of landing legs from the booster and ship by making the tower do the work of final velocity attenuation greatly improves payload margin. This architecture also simultaneously substantially increases launch cadence, because the same arms that lift the booster and ship onto the launch stand also catch them, allowing immediate placement of the booster back on the launch stand and the ship back on top of the booster.”

  ELON: A FULLY REUSABLE ROCKET IS BARELY POSSIBLE. WE’RE GOING TO TRY TO DO IT

  “The pivotal breakthrough that’s necessary, that some company has to come up with to make life multiplanetary, is a fully and rapidly reusable orbit-class rocket.

  This is a very difficult thing to do… pic.twitter.com/3JmuCt3EhS

  — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) October 14, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “If you can move mass from the rocket to the ground site, it’s better to move mass to the ground site,” said Musk in 2021. “That’s why we took legs off the booster and just have the tower catch it. It sounds mad. I know it sounds insane. When I suggested that, people thought I lost my mind. Maybe I have,” he said, explaining the need to build Mechanzilla’s vast arms to catch his returning booster rockets, improving efficiency, lowering launch costs, one incremental improvement at a time. “It might take a few kicks at the can, but we’ll get it right.

  “Achieving materially positive payload margin to a useful orbit with a fully and rapidly reusable rocket has eluded prior attempts,” said Musk on Monday. “Many have tried to embark upon this path only to give up when it became clear that their design would have negative or negligible payload margin. This is an extremely difficult problem to solve, given the strong gravity of Earth, whereas it is easy on Mars and trivial on the Moon. In the early years of SpaceX, I was not sure that success was even in the set of possible outcomes! Starship is designed to achieve a >1000X improvement over existing rocket systems and, especially after yesterday’s booster catch and precise ocean landing of the ship, I am now convinced that it can work.”

  Achieving materially positive payload margin to a useful orbit with a fully & rapidly reusable rocket has eluded prior attempts. Many have tried to embark upon this path only to give up when it became clear that their design would have negative or negligible payload margin.

  This… https://t.co/WOtCVLasgB

  — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 14, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “The next generation Starlink satellites, which are so big that only Starship can launch them, will allow for a 10X increase in bandwidth and, with the reduced altitude, faster latency,” said Elon on Friday, as SpaceX requested the FCC make “several small but meaningful updates” to its 2nd-generation Starlink network.

  The next generation Starlink satellites, which are so big that only Starship can launch them, will allow for a 10X increase in bandwidth and, with the reduced altitude, faster latency https://t.co/HLYdjjia3o

  — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 14, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “Together, this modification and its companion amendment will enable the Gen2 system to deliver gigabit-speed, truly low-latency broadband and ubiquitous mobile connectivity to all Americans and the billions of people globally who still lack access to adequate broadband.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/20/2024 – 15:10

• Democrats Cheer As Lizzo Says: "Whole Country Be Like Detroit" If Kamala Wins
  Democrats Cheer As Lizzo Says: “Whole Country Be Like Detroit” If Kamala Wins

  Rapper ‘Lizzo’ boarded a private jet on Saturday ahead of a Kamala Harris campaign rally in Detroit, telling the less fortunate than her voters: “This is how a bad b*tch saves democracy. You ho’s couldn’t even spell democracy.”

  Even before Lizzo arrived in America’s most dangerous city, run by far-left Democrats for generations, she insulted everyone… 

  Who the hell talks like that? Also, why a private jet if the imminent global warming disaster is so dire? 

  The elite, authoritarian democrats hate you. They hold you in contempt. Lizzo shows off her private jet as she heads to Detroit to campaign for Kamala Harris. “This is how a bad b*tch saves democracy. You ho’s couldn’t even spell democracy.” pic.twitter.com/ugDlSvkD4w

  — David P. (@davidwhitley) October 19, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  It gets even better because, at the rally, Lizzo told the crowd: “I’m so proud to be from Detroit. They say if Kamala Harris wins, the whole country will be like Detroit.” 

  Umm. Who is “they”? Obama? 

  .@lizzo: I’m so proud to be from Detroit. They say if Kamala Harris wins, the whole country will be like Detroit. Proud like Detroit. Resilient like Detroit. The same Detroit that innovated the auto industry and the music industry. Put some respect on Detroit’s name pic.twitter.com/fSWMGCW0uH

  — Kamala HQ (@KamalaHQ) October 19, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  And, oh boy, X users ripped Lizo for claiming that if Harris was elected president, “the whole country will be like Detroit …” 

  🤦‍♂️ pic.twitter.com/9kTx0vU9uU

  — Liberacrat™️ (@Liberacrat) October 20, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Lizzo literally came to detroit on a private jet to tell people who are less fortunate than her how to vote. Talk about entitlement. Disgusting.

  — SmiggleyPuffz (@AnthonyPLOL) October 20, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  How does Lizzo flying a private jet help save the environment?

  Because Kamala and the Democrats say they care about being “green.”

  Any chance they’re just hypocrites?

  — Paul A. Szypula 🇺🇸 (@Bubblebathgirl) October 20, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “Make America Like Detroit” – Lizzo is actively campaigning for Trump with statements like this 🤦🏽‍♂️

  — UngaTheGreat (@UngaTheGreat) October 20, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Detroit is a shithole

  We do not want the rest of the country to be like Detroit

  — Hodgetwins (@hodgetwins) October 19, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Oh My God!

  Who wants to be like Detroit?!

  The self own here is glorious. pic.twitter.com/TtCFovXtDW

  — Thomas Musket ⓒ (@ThomasMusket) October 19, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  #Lizzo says US “becoming Detroit” is a good thing.

  *30% of Detroit lives BELOW poverty line.

  *Detroit=DOUBLE DIGIT unemployment.

  *Detroit=one of the highest crime rates in the country.

  America cannot be #Detroit. USA wants more than ⁦@lizzo⁩ & Kamala can ever imagine. pic.twitter.com/RASoR0TfkT

  — Trish Regan (@trish_regan) October 20, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Detroit is dead. Meanwhile, innovation is happening at SpaceX’s Starbase in Texas. 

  The final phase of Super Heavy’s landing burn used the three center Raptor engines to precisely steer into catch position pic.twitter.com/BxQbOmT4yk

  — SpaceX (@SpaceX) October 14, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Most Americans are fed up with Democratic elites who have unleashed chaos and violent crime nationwide while attempting to undermine the Constitution every step of the way.

  Stealth Edit: FBI Quietly Revises Violent Crime Stats https://t.co/q3Ikr5edze

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 16, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Kamala and her crew are out of touch as nation-wrecking inflation, sparked by her and Joe Biden, financially crushes households.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/20/2024 – 14:35

• When Things Kinda Make Sense
  When Things Kinda Make Sense

  By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

  When Things Kinda Make Sense

  I’m a contrarian by nature. I much prefer finding things that markets may be pricing incorrectly, to going along with the consensus. Usually there is no shortage of topics to pick from as a contrarian. Anything from China, to the quality of data, to the economy, to geopolitical risk, to valuations, but right now, I’m struggling to find an issue to get worked up about. Maybe this is the exception that proves the rule?

  In any case, let’s run through a variety of issues that, for better or worse, I think kind of make sense from a market pricing standpoint.

  Interest Rates

  For the first time in recent memory, I think rates are, more or less, priced correctly. As discussed last week in Little New to Say, it was getting more difficult to remain bearish on Treasury yields, though the bull case was even less convincing. The 10-year did eventually rally back to 4% on Wednesday, but then gave up most of those gains, and is stuck right around 4.1% again.

  We’ve argued in that report and in War, Inflation, and the Neutral Rate, that we might have seen a temporary bottom for inflation. The disruptions caused by hurricanes Helene and Milton could prove inflationary. The rebuilding efforts, which will begin in earnest as insurance checks hit, will also be inflationary. Again, I’m not alarmed that we will get a surge in inflation, but the easy part of the lower inflation story is almost over (the “simple” model of two distinct “Covid bumps” – one for goods and one for services – has been an effective tool in estimating the direction of inflation). You can find the “Covid bump” chart in Building the Case For Rate Cuts from early July.

  

  The Neutral Rate has become a part of virtually every bit of FedSpeak that we get. Almost all speakers agree that it is higher than they previously thought. So far, they seem to be channeling 3% to 3.5%, but I expect that to solidify to 3.5% to 3.75% sooner than later. We spent over a year over 5% and the economy has barely slowed!

  Having said all that, markets have largely moved to be in line with our take. They are still a bit more aggressive on the rate cut front than we are, and we think they are too complacent on the deficit and the longer end of the yield curve, but market rates are in our ballpark now.

  On the Fed cut front:

  • The market is pricing in 2.5 cuts in the next 3 meetings.

  • That isn’t far from our expectations. As discussed on Bloomberg TV last week, we are still pricing in 25 bps in November as a certainty. Bloomberg TV captioned our recent interview as Embarrassing for the Fed Not to Cut in November. The caption is a bit aggressive (it was 5:30 in the morning after all, and we covered a lot more ground), but I do think that for the sake of continuity and to support the decision to go 50 in September, they will cut 25 unless we get some extremely strong data. Then, I would expect a pause in one or both of the next 2 meetings. Our base case is only 2 cuts in the next 3 meetings, which means the market is “only” 0.5 cuts higher than us (the markets were 2 full cuts more than us a couple of weeks ago).

  • Our current outlook for next 3 meetings:

    • 50% chance of 25, 0, 25

    • 30% chance of 25, 25, 0

    • 20% chance of 25, 0, 0

  • The market doesn’t get below 3.3% on Fed funds until January 2026. That is a far cry from when it was below 3% by the summer of 2025 a few weeks ago. I think that it continue to inch up towards 3.6%, but my timing for that is early 2026. We are basically down to arguing over just about 1 cut, instead of 3, which is where we were. Again, all kinda makes sense.

  • That still leaves me slightly bearish 10s, primarily because I think 2s vs 10s should be 25 bps (though they closed at 13, which fits that “kinda right” vibe of today’s report). Also, I just see many more scenarios where we get another “buyer strike” as the realization that no one in D.C. is incentivized to control the growth of the deficit, rather than scenarios that see a surge in demand. For a range on 10s, I think 4% to 4.2%, but with more risk of a breakout to 4.5% than a breakdown to 3.75%. The 30-year is even more susceptible to a major move to higher yields from Friday’s 4.4% close (5% seems unlikely, but is a risk).

  Jobs and the Economy

  Following my view that seasonal adjustments have been wrong (adding too many jobs in the winter and subtracting too many jobs during the summer), we should be getting “clean” data. In fact, errors and issues surrounding jobs data have retreated from front and center for us, to more of a back burner issue. But, while issues addressed in The Fog of War have not been entirely resolved, they just aren’t our highest priority right now.

  While the hurricanes will cause some distortions, I expect the jobs data to be “okay.” Consistent with a bumpy/choppy landing – not signifying growth, but also not hinting that we might already be in a recession.

  Consumer data seems “mixed.” There are signs that spending remains robust, like this week’s retail sales data. There are also some signs that consumers, especially lower income ones, are getting stretched. Credit card debt, even adjusted for inflation (and wage growth), is getting to be a potential hurdle to further spending. We are seeing delinquencies (most noticeably in autos) tick higher. Regardless of which data you look at on this front, the trend has not been friendly. On the other hand, some metrics are still below 2018/2019 averages, so it shouldn’t signal panic, just something to watch.

  At the same time, some portion of that record amount of money in money market funds is held by individuals. Presumably, some of that interest gets spent, helping the economy. I think the surprise in this cycle will be that lower yields stall spending as most debts are locked in at lower yields and the lack of interest income will hurt households more than the cuts help (ok, I managed to squeeze in one “out there” view in today’s report).

  The Atlanta GDPNow estimate is at 3.43%! That is up from a recent low of 2.54% on October 1st. This number is a bit volatile, but even 3% would indicate a decent, even good economic backdrop, which I cannot disagree with.

  Our “bumpy” scenario is that some sectors will be doing well, while others struggle. Ditto for various regions of the country. Nothing that the economy can’t handle, but also not some overly rosy resurgence story.

  Earnings and Market Responses

  Taiwan Semiconductor announced earnings that helped that stock jump 10% on Thursday. The chip stocks did well, but not as well as TSM, and the Nasdaq 100 edged only marginally higher. To me, the response seemed kinda right. The epicenter of the move was on the stock that delivered the positive outlook, and the strength rippled out from there, but in what seemed appropriately proportional amounts. It didn’t cause the entire market to go into a furor of buying. Similarly, NFLX did extremely well on Friday (up 11%), but it seemed to be treated, correctly in my opinion, as a validation of their business, rather than some sign that all tech should rally! Yes, markets did rally on Friday, in part because of NFLX, but I think it had more to do with another effort by China to further talk up their markets and their commitment to stimulus. ARKK, which I still use as a barometer for “disruption,” was actually down on Thursday, again signaling “differentiation” rather than excessive speculation in the market.

  Breadth seems to be increasing as the Russell 2000 outperformed the other major indices and the equal weighted S&P 500 beat out the regular S&P 500 on the week (barely, but still, a positive sign for breadth).

  The fact that major companies, with large market caps, can move 10% on earnings, still seems a bit bizarre to me, but I like how the rest of the market performed around these earnings. It is as though we’ve built up a base and are being thoughtful, rather than just slapping the “BUY” button.

  I’m sticking to my assessment that the CCP needs the economy to turn around and will continue to add measures to prop it up (see China Stimulus Simplified). So far, they seem to be following our playbook as though they read the T-Report. One thing I do think the market is getting wrong, is assuming the Chinese stimulus will help the big global companies, when I believe it will be as targeted as possible to support domestic brands, as part of the transition from Made in China to Made by China.

  I’m still concerned about valuations in some areas and think there is a big risk if we see any signs that spending on AI is slowing or even being questioned. It is just as easy (or maybe easier) to have 10% down days. In general, I do think the market behaved rationally relative to the news flow recently.

  Finally, from a purely “Market Structure” standpoint, we continue to have the risk that a lack of liquidity can cause larger-than-rational moves in either direction, where the chance of very large single day moves to the downside heavily outweigh the odds of a big day to the upside.

  Credit Markets

  Remember when we asked How Tight Can Credit Spreads Go? Well, the market continues, maybe begrudgingly, to move in our direction. We listed multiple reasons to remain so bullish credit. We have reiterated some in recent reports, but I urge you to go back to this report from July to see the entire list, since the reasons are all still in play.

  

  The Election

  If saying credit spreads, already tight, are likely to go tighter, isn’t treading into dangerous waters, then bringing up the election certainly is.

  Gridlock. That seems to be the one thing markets and most polls agree on. Most things I see point to a House of Representatives won by the Democrats and a Senate won by the Republicans. So long as that seems to be the base case, then it doesn’t matter as much who wins the presidency, as their ability to create real change will be limited. It also fits with a view (which I hold) that people who vote against someone (rather than voting for someone) are more likely to split their ticket. They want to vote against someone, but don’t want to give, whoever they vote for, too much power.

  We are starting to spend time thinking more seriously about potential outcomes and policies and expect to publish early this week on the subject, but for now, we think the markets are moving in regard to election headlines.

  Geopolitics

  Academy’s Geopolitical Intelligence Group published a SITREP on Israel Kills Sinwar. There are ongoing developments this weekend and we continue to expect Israel to retaliate against Iran directly. While the death of Sinwar may open the door to some truce with Hamas, that is far from certain. In any case, Israel is likely to continue to prosecute their war with Iran’s other proxies and Iran itself.

  The markets seem entirely focused on whether or not Israel (or Iran) will do anything to disrupt the flow of oil. So long as that seems to be off the table (which was the indication that we were given this past week), markets will not pay too much attention to the situation. Yes, participants in markets are paying close attention to all of the suffering and death, but that does not translate into markets moving, unless we get significantly more escalation and expansion (even then, the reaction in markets is likely to be muted unless energy supplies are affected). It seems harsh to write this (and it probably is), but there is a significant difference between human tragedies and what can move markets.

  Owning energy (rather than Treasuries) is the best way to hedge any escalation. Though at 4.1%, it is less unreasonable to own some Treasuries as a hedge to geopolitical risk (though I don’t think it will be as successful as owning energy).

  Bottom Line

  Rates, call it slightly bearish, but just barely (low conviction and small sizes).

  Credit, still dull and still a great place to be.

  Equities, Chinese stocks, value, small caps, and equal weight indices all look attractive. Still too worried to fully commit to the stocks with the highest valuations/multiples/best moments, but I did like how the market behaved (though I’d add to the laggards rather than to the year-to-date winners). Finally, things seem to be falling into place for commercial real estate bets. I would have liked to see a lot more “clearing transactions” where we developed a true clearing price as I’m told there still is a difference between what buyers are willing to pay and what sellers think they deserve. But everything from the end of rate hikes to more “Work From Office” headlines, makes me want to add exposure here.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/20/2024 – 14:00

• Boeing Explores Asset Sales In Potential Shrinking Of Corporate Footprint 
  Boeing Explores Asset Sales In Potential Shrinking Of Corporate Footprint 

  The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday morning that Boeing is mulling over asset sales to raise cash levels for its struggling business. On Saturday, Boeing and union heads reached a tentative labor contract agreement that could soon end the money-draining months-long labor strike, while early last week, the planemaker filed a $25 billion shelf registration to provide a “variety of capital options as needed to support the company’s balance sheet over a three-year period.”

  The new report cites a person familiar with a recent discussion between Boeing’s board and executives at its headquarters in Arlington, Virginia. The meeting centered around potential asset sales, as executives and board members combed through internal reports on the state of each of the planemaker’s units. 

  Just weeks ago, Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg told employees, “We need to be clear-eyed about the work we face,” adding, “We also need to focus our resources on performing and innovating in the areas that are core to who we are.”

  

  Ortberg replaced Dave Calhoun as the president and CEO of Boeing on August 8. He is expected to comment publicly for the first time as CEO on Wednesday, following the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers’ vote on the new labor contract. The company estimated the strike to cost $1 billion. It warned of a $6 billion quarterly loss for the period ending September 30. 

  On Tuesday, just days after Boeing announced plans to cut 10% of its workforce due to intensifying financial pressure, such as dwindling cash reserves and mounting risk of a credit downgrade, as well as prolonged strike, the beleaguered planemaker filed a $25 billion shelf registration. 

  “This universal shelf registration provides flexibility for the company to seek a variety of capital options as needed to support the company’s balance sheet over a three-year period,” Boeing wrote in the filing. 

  Separately, Boeing entered into a $10 billion “supplemental credit agreement” with a consortium of lenders. It noted that the credit facility provides “additional short-term access to liquidity as we navigate through a challenging environment,” adding that it has not drawn down on this facility or its existing credit revolver. 

  Boeing has already considered selling its rocket-launching joint venture, United Launch Alliance, with Lockheed Martin to Sierra Space for $2-$3 billion. Also, Boeing’s space division is in crisis following the malfunctioning of the Starliner spacecraft.

  Separately, Boeing’s competitor, Airbus, laid off 2,500 jobs in its space division, as Elon Musk’s SpaceX dominates rocket launches and leads the space race in this solar system. 

  Boeing’s obsession (Wall Street’s obsession) with DEI, climate, and gender justice ultimately dealt the fatal blow. It’s time to refocus on the fundamentals, like building planes that actually stay in the sky. Is that a hard ask, Boeing?

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/20/2024 – 13:25

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• The Final Countdown
  The Final Countdown

  Authored by Jeremiah Hosea via Substack,

  A dignified life, or dehumanized technocracy — which would you prefer for your children?

  

  As you may have noticed, I do enjoy lists. I suppose they appeal to my sense of order. The following is a list of fundamental principles that were strangely, as if by hypnosis, abdicated during the Convid Scamdemic.

  I hope you enjoy, as do I, the novelty (at least for this Substack) of presenting this particular list in countdown format!

  8. Do Not Trust the Government — how anyone could not understand this principle by now is beyond me. You don’t need to refer to ancient history to reach this conclusion. You don’t even need to have read Machiavelli (although I highly recommend you do). Just look at recent history and you will be provided with numerous examples indicating that no private citizen should ever trust the government.

  The Tuskegee Syphilis Experiment was even invoked by some of the poison pushers during Covid in patronizing efforts to assuage vaccine hesitancy. It was mentioned dismissively as though it were something that happened a million years ago and would never happen again. Yet every thinking person should take stock of this nightmarish event. It was medical torture that transpired over the course of 40 years and was presided over by the CDC. Yes — the same CDC.

  Politically, since the turn of the new millennium, we have been treated to a continuous barrage of psyops and wars, wars and psyops. The dubious nature of the 2000 election, the unanswered questions surrounding 9/11, the lies about WMDs that resulted in catastrophic war in Iraq, the total bailout of the banks in 2008 with not as much as a life-raft for the people, the Flint Michigan water crisis, the annihilation of Libya — we could go on and on and on in reciting examples of negligence, malfeasance and heinous actions carried out by our government irrespective of which political party held the presidency at the time. (I insist they are one party pretending to be two.)

  How could one claim to have observed history and then fail to notice that virtually every major government project done in opposition to an enemy whether literal or abstract, from all the senseless catastrophic wars against regimes to the fruitless and counterproductive “War on Drugs” and then “War on Terror”, have been entirely negative in both nature and results?

  Whenever the government announces (or doesn’t announce) it is embarking on some grand new endeavor, usually something catastrophic is underway.

  During Covid, I didn’t just see people fail to be suspicious of a government that had thoroughly earned our distrust, I had the even more harrowing experience of witnessing people I had known previously to be “critical thinkers” suddenly devolve into people incapable of any critical thought whatsoever.

  7. Don’t Trust Major Corporations, Especially Big Pharma aka Big Harma — what is a corporation? It is an instrument designed to maximize profit in the marketplace. In capitalism ruthlessness, relentlessness and an amoral approach are all considered admirable traits.

  The willingness of a corporation to poison, pollute, injure or even kill is requisite to compete in the upper echelons of the market place. Major corporations do not have a track record of admitting fault or confessing guilt. They do not have the tendency of “taking things down a notch” for the sake of the environment, or human dignity or being reasonable. The ends absolutely justify the means and therefore, nothing is off-limits in the pursuit of maximizing profits. If there is collateral damage, or if a few fines need to be paid along the way — so be it. That will all be neatly filed and tucked away under the label of “the cost of doing business.” This description shouldn’t shock anyone — I am merely describing the spirit of capitalism and the spirit of corporatism.

  Big industry from the military industrial complex to Big-Agra is thoroughly out of hand, but there’s something particularly disturbing about the corruption of the pharmaceutical industry as it pertains immediately to our health, the health of our children and the health of our families and communities. We should all be more than concerned that the oath stating, “first do no harm” has been jettisoned entirely.

  Giving legal indemnity to corporations (especially ones with felony backgrounds) is a recipe for guaranteed disaster. There should be a law against making such laws. The National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act of 1986 which gives liability protection to vaccine manufacturers needs to be overturned immediately and put in its historical place as an anathema to the proper drafting and passing of laws.

  6. The Right to Question — the right to question should be unquestionable. We claim to value education and up until recently intellectual curiosity was considered a good attribute. When Covid came along all the sudden “doing your own research” aka reading was suddenly being demonized. Who has ever heard of such a thing? And how can the people discouraging critical inquiry consider themselves to be the intelligent ones? It’s adjacent to the question, “when were the censors the good guys in history?”

  Questioning is good. Robust dialogue is good. The notion of sterilizing mistakes or incorrect ideas out of discourse is totalitarian. In fact, clarifying and the correcting of mistakes usually offers a great opportunity for education and enlightenment. Moreover, to attempt to gain an understanding even to venture into the taxonomy of an unfamiliar field or discipline does not mean that the inquirers suddenly become professionals in that field — no reasonable person would suggest that. It is simply to have gained some understanding in a new area. This is a good process and not a negative one.

  As my friend Ryan Cristian of Last American Vagabond ( TheLastAmericanVagabond.com ) says at the end of every program, “Question everything.”

  5. Freedom to Associate — the government has no right whatsoever to prevent us from seeing our families or friends when we are not engaged in criminal actions and are not meeting to engage in criminal conspiracies. Lockdowns (which varied in severity from country to country and county to county) were a flagrant violation of our natural rights. Just as the government cannot protect us from any act of God — the notion that they can protect us from a respiratory ailment by restricting our movements is not only blatant overreach, it’s medically and scientifically without merit.

  The falsehood of the “asymptomatic carrier” was the fraudulent basis for movement restricting policies. It should be accepted, however, that policy makers have no influence, no sway whatsoever in regard to the virome. Even if they did, a declared emergency should not be grounds for the suspension or removal of our rights. Yet what transpired during Covid and the lack of resistance from the public that went along with it, has set the stage for future abuses.

  4. Freedom of Religion — I feel an enormous spiritual feeling but I do not identify with any particular religion or religious text. My beliefs, however, as well as the beliefs or non-beliefs of every individual are irrelevant — our country, like every free society, allows for freedom of religion. It is not the job of the mayor, governor, president or any appointed or elected official to arbitrarily suspend the fundamental right to worship and practice one’s religion.

  It makes no sense to impose policies to protect a religious person from illness, when most religions are rooted in the concept of preparing the practitioner for death. For most religious people their religious practices are part of their well being. It is not up to power brokers to determine when devout persons can practice their religions or when congregations can congregate.

  Allowing liquor stores to remain open while churches and mosques were ordered closed, highlights the perfectly baseless and arbitrary nature of lockdown policies. (I cringe when I use the word “allow” because We The People should have never “allowed” the state to have as much as an impression that they could impose any of this unfounded rubbish.)

  Just prior to Covid, religious exemptions for vaccines required to attend school were overturned in New York and California. (Looking back, that was a red flag and helped set the stage for the bio security State that was about to emerge.) How is that possible? How can the government arbitrarily decide that their rule is more powerful than your religious belief and conviction to God Almighty? Who do they think they are? Religious exemptions should never be overturnable.

  3. Haste Makes Waste — Haste makes waste is a truism. It is well known that it is better to be well prepared than rushed. It’s a principle also known as the 6 P’s — proper preparation prevents piss poor performance.

  It’s better to be a well-rehearsed band than an under-rehearsed band. It’s better to be a well practiced basketball team (like the Spurs) than a team that hasn’t practiced enough. It’s better to be a well-prepared actor than an unprepared actor. It is better to have an experienced surgeon and not a medical student. Everyone knows that haste makes waste, yet somehow this axiomatic principle was disregarded in the case of “Operation Warp Speed.”

  “Warp speed” implies mistakes. It implies lack of regulation and oversight. More than imply, it means — no long term safety data. It means rushed-to-market. It means “safe and effective” is inherently a lie because they didn’t have sufficient time to confirm its safety or effectiveness.

  It’s mind numbing that not only did supposedly intelligent people insist that such a massive undertaking (Operation Warp Speed) could be executed without any noticeable reduction in quality, but then proceeded to aggressively insult and gaslight those who raised this most obvious concern.

  Despite the notion that anyone who refused the experimental injections was doing so based on elaborate conspiracy theories, I spoke to many people who told me firsthand that their hesitancy or outright refusal was based on the simple fact that the whole thing was done too damn fast.

  2. Body Sovereignty — sovereignty over one’s own body is the most fundamental of fundamental rights. It is the right from which all other rights emanate. If your body sovereignty is compromised, you are a compromised individual and you are not a free person. You may aspire to freedom, but you are not free.

  Mandating Covid “vaccines” (products falsely marketed as such) was a violation of the Constitution†, the Nuremberg Code†† and first and foremost natural law. No person should be forced to eat anything, watch anything, participate in anything — least of all an invasive medical procedure — against their will. It’s incredibly sad that this has to be discussed or debated whatsoever in the United States or any modern society for that matter.

  1. No means No — I have most certainly emphasized this in previous articles. I will exercise here the literary technique known as sufficient redundancy and reiterate that — No is the most important word in the dictionary. No is sacrosanct.

  We teach our children, and rightfully so, that they always have the right to say No. If something doesn’t feel right — No. If you don’t feel safe — No. If you are being asked to compromise your dignity — No. The word — No — by itself, is a complete sentence. This principle, of always having the right to say No, does not have an expiration date. It’s not just for children. It is fundamental to human dignity.

  It is an abomination, that the right to say No was violated across the whole of society. What a terrible example for our children, and if we don’t change things now — what a terrible inheritance for them as well.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/19/2024 – 23:20

• Ottawa Launches Consultation On Forced Labour Crackdown Amid China Scrutiny
  Ottawa Launches Consultation On Forced Labour Crackdown Amid China Scrutiny

  Authored by Andrew Chen via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Ottawa, Canada has launched a public consultation on new measures to curb imports of goods made with forced labour. The move comes amid increased scrutiny of China’s use of forced labour involving persecuted groups.

  

  International Trade Minister Mary Ng announced the public consultation on Oct. 16, saying that it aims to strengthen the enforcement of the ban on importing forced labour goods in alignment with the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) and actions taken by allied countries.

  During this public consultation, the government will seek feedback on improving enforcement of the import ban, according to a separate release on Oct. 16. Proposed measures include publishing a list of items at risk of being made with forced labour, based on guidelines from the International Labour Organization (ILO). A “minimum traceability” process was also proposed, requiring importers of these items to provide more information about where their products come from.

  Additionally, the proposed changes could affect how costs are handled. Importers of goods found to be made with forced labour would have to pay for all costs related to detention, removal, abandonment, and forfeiture. This would include transportation, storage, and disposal fees.

  Citing an ILO report on modern slavery, Ottawa noted that an estimated 27.6 million people were subjected to forced labour worldwide in 2021, an increase of 3 million since 2016. Children represented about 12 percent of those affected, totalling 3.3 million.

  Forced Labour in China

  The announcement comes amid increased scrutiny of forced labour in China.

  Last month, four U.S. lawmakers urged Minister Ng and American and Mexican CUSMA trade representatives to bolster the enforcement of bans on forced labour goods from China. These lawmakers have been key proponents of the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, which aims to fight what they call China’s “widespread and systemic use“ of forced labour to exploit Uyghurs and other Turkic Muslims in the Xinjiang region.

  The U.S. lawmakers urged CUSMA members to take further action to prevent the import of goods made with forced labour into North America, expressing frustration that a shipment of solar panels, denied entry into the United States due to concerns about forced labour, was later imported into Canada and then attempted to be re-exported to the United States.

  The issue has also been studied in recent years in parliamentary committees in Canada, with human rights activists urging more action by Canadian lawmakers to curb China’s forced labour practices.

  “The Subcommittee [on International Human Rights] was advised that Canada should adopt a ’reverse‑onus’ policy for companies importing products from Xinjiang, or other parts of China where forced labour is prominent. Such a policy would require importing companies to demonstrate that forced labour was not used in the manufacturing of their products,” reads a March 2021 report published by the subcommittee.

  Since 2021, the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) has intercepted and assessed around 50 shipments of goods for suspected involvement with forced labour, according to an earlier statement to The Epoch Times. Six shipments were monitored for export out of the Canadian market, and one was abandoned by the importer at the border. The remaining shipments were allowed entry following a review of supply chain information provided by importers.

  “The Government of Canada expects companies to take every step possible to ensure that their supply chains conform to Canadian law. It is the responsibility of the importer to exercise due diligence to ensure forced labour is not directly or indirectly used in the production of the goods it imports,” CBSA spokesperson Luke Reimer said on Sept. 26. 

  One well-known case involved a shipment from China that was intercepted in Quebec in fall 2021, but it was ultimately allowed entry. Reimer said that this decision came after the importer requested a review of the tariff classification. Upon examining the submitted documents, it was determined that the goods did not meet the criteria for seizure related to forced labour.

  Canada has imposed an import ban on goods produced by forced labour since an amendment to the Customs Tariff Act took effect on July 1, 2020. The following year, it also launched an analysis of supply chain risks related to forced labour in China.

  In January, a law aimed at fighting forced labour and child labour in supply chains came into force. Previously known as Bill S-211, this law requires the head of every government institution involved in producing, purchasing, or distributing goods in Canada or elsewhere to submit an annual report to the minister of public safety by May 31 each year.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/19/2024 – 22:45

• The Omniwar Is Everywhere
  The Omniwar Is Everywhere

  Authored by Joe Allen via BombThrower.com,

  The Omniwar Symposium was well worth watching in full. It hits many points I’ve been covering for years now, from transhuman ambition to religious inversion. Even so, there was plenty of new material for me to sink my teeth into. All the presenters are admirably learned and articulate, so the info went down easy.

  

  Their overarching thesis posits an all-encompassing assault by elite powers on mass populations – the fat cats against “the people.” This is a global war, waged alongside various inter-elite geopolitical conflicts. In the long view, the omniwar is a struggle to establish a technocratic hegemony. It is a fight to crush our freedoms. It is a war against humanity.

  By and large, this accusation is a response to the traumatic Covid measures brought down on the citizens of nearly every nation on earth. I may disagree with the symposium’s ultimate conclusions—especially those godforsaken nanobots—but they’ll get no argument from me about the 2020 terror campaign. In America, people in most states saw their rights trampled upon. Corporations and the federal government forced vaccination under penalty of unemployment. Lives were upended. Family ties were broken. It was a crime against human dignity.

  Those were treacherous times. Without future safeguards, they’re likely to be repeated ad nauseam. One key component of resistance, though, will be to attack the system with precision, and not allow ourselves to get lost in puerile fantasies.

  The symposium included my friend Patrick Wood, who has taught me a great deal about technocracy and transhumanism. His presentation was characteristically lucid, from the early history of the technocracy movement at Columbia University to its continued relevance in our present era. “Technocracy is the science of social engineering,” Patrick quoted from a 1937 issue of The Technocrat, “the scientific operation of the entire social mechanism to produce and distribute goods and services to the entire population.”

  The Covid crackdown was nothing if not technocratic in essence. Governments used “the numbers” to lock down their citizens and neutralize their justified protests. Drug corporations hid the real numbers to deny their customers’ vaccine injuries. Both colluded to form impromptu biosecurity states. These people should all burn in hell—at least for a little while.

  

  Despite the normie-con temptation to attribute everything to “Marxism” (which is sort of like Jew obsession, minus the nepotism and alleged moneylust), Patrick drew a clear distinction between technocracy and communism. “Marxists hated technocracy with a passion,” he explained, “and for good reason: technocrats would push man out of the picture altogether, resulting in a hierarchy of scientific dictatorship run by scientists and engineers.”

  That insight doesn’t play well with TV-brained Fox News fans, but I appreciate the nuance. “Technocracy wanted to do away with all political systems,” Patrick went on, “including communism and socialism.”

  Similarly, while acknowledging that most technocrats and transhumanists begin from atheistic premises—viewing the organic world as a system of interlocking mechanisms—Patrick emphasized that not all atheists are technocrats or transhumanists. Such distinctions will be critical going forward, lest we come off like torch-bearing witch-hunters.

  

  As it happens, a recent paper by one Omniwar participant, Daniel Broudy, inspired me to resume my research into nano-scale technology. The idea is that the Covid jabs—and perhaps chemtrails streaking overhead—contain sophisticated nanobots which can be activated by 5G routers to monitor or manipulate a subject’s body and brain.

  Some say these self-assembling vaxxbots can kill a man like tiny ball-busting pagers floating through his bloodstream. Click… BOOM!

  I remain unconvinced.

  In fact, an expert commentary hastily published by the same outlet as Broudy’s paper—the International Journal of Vaccine Practice, Theory, and Research—flatly states there are “No Nanobots in Vaccines — Just Lipids on the Loose.” But in sensationalist vaxxbot circles, the psychological damage has already been done and the clickbait money already extracted.

  Broudy avoided all mention of the nanos during his Omniwar presentation, leaving that to his co-authors Lissa Johnson and David Hughes. Instead, he focused on the broader sociological implications of technocracy. The presentation was well-written, and he read it from his screen with eloquence. His main point was that our leaders treat us like cattle, using surveillance and mind control to herd the masses at will.

  My regular readers will know I agree with that up to a point. But a one-dimensional characterization misses two vital elements. First off, anyone who’s carefully studied the transhumanist literature knows that “liberty” and “morphological freedom” are key principles that complicate any top-down oppression narrative.

  Second, and just as important, is the dark reality that—much like large-scale technocratic institutions treat mass populations like cattle—many business savvy “freedom fighters” have captured the imaginations of smaller sub-populations, filled their heads with sci-fi delusions, and made off with their minds (and money) like web-crawling cattle-rustlers.

  Speaking about large-scale control systems, though, Broudy did include one quote from Bertrand Russell’s essay “Scientific Technique in an Oligarchy” that really captures the menace of our age. In his original passage, Russell highlights the “evils” of Soviet Russia and the “atrocities” of the Nazis, looking ahead to the more insidious possibilities of scientific totalitarianism. For whatever reason, Broudy omits Russell’s obvious disdain for communism, fascism, and dictatorship, but his excerpt is relevant nonetheless.

  “Diet, injections, and injunctions will combine,” Russell wrote in 1951, “to produce the sort of character and the sort of beliefs that the authorities consider desirable, and any serious criticism of the powers that be will become psychologically impossible. Even if all are miserable, all will believe themselves happy, because the government will tell them that they are so.”

  Broudy pairs this quote with the 2016 slogan “You’ll own nothing and be happy,” which, to Broudy’s credit, he traces not to Klaus Schwab—as is fashionable—but rather to its original source. Even so, Broudy’s presentation had the effect of flattening the problems of our era to some World Economic Forum-centered conspiracy. If only life were so simple.

  

  Lissa Johnson gave the most compelling talk, describing “transhumanism as a military-intelligence operation with Covid-19 as a supporting psychological operation.” Her literature review of military, government, and corporate documents was superb. She cited a number of white papers I’d never seen before, so I’ve been following her trail for several days now. This new information has been illuminating, and for that I’m grateful.

  In fact, I highly recommend you listen to her talk in full. If that piques your interest, do read the four-part series that Johnson co-authored with Daniel Broudy and David Hughes. The information they marshal is of great interest, although I suspect their literalist, overly imaginative conclusions will do more harm than good. That’s for you to decide. (Well, you and objective reality, if anyone can grasp such a thing.)

  Two themes from Johnson’s presentation really hit me: the “manipulation of reality perception” and the recurring dreams (and nightmares) of advanced nanotechnology. It’s true that, by their very nature, psychological operations are methods of perceptual manipulation. It’s also true that advanced nanotech transmitters—whether administered via injection or aerosol—are a long-standing goal of both military and medical authorities. Yet there’s an ironic connection between these two notions that Johnson seems to miss.

  

  If, as Johnson, Broudy, and Hughes suggest, the human race is presently being seeded with self-assembling nano-scale circuitry or full-blown nanobots—whether injected into arms or dropped from fake clouds—then we live in a nightmare world of invisible creepy crawlies. These are basically UFOs in your bloodstream: unidentified floating objects. They can’t stop Covid, apparently, but they can monitor your vital signs and control your mind.

  On the other hand, if such nanotech still remains in a fantasy realm alongside quantum computers and artificial superintelligence—both of which attract billions in funding, with little more than neat parlor tricks to show for it—then Johnson et al. are leading people to chase invisible Easter Bunnies down a rabbit hole to nowhere.

  Whether they mean to or not, they also discredit any real resistance to governmental technocracy and corporate transhumanism by activating delusional loud-mouths.

  “Don’t ya’ll worry about no mRNAs in them shots. It’s the nanner bots that’ll get’che!!”

  Indeed, if viable, mass-deployed nanobots do not yet exist, then vaxxbot alarmism is itself a psy op. It’s a “manipulation of reality perception” that convinces dupes to believe their vaxxed friends and family are 5G-controlled zombies, or that airborne nanos are falling from the sky like demonic snowflakes. In that case, the evil vaxxbot is part of a “simulated reality” that rips people’s minds apart.

  Johnson et al. do a great job of showing intent, though. No one can deny that well-heeled scientists and government agents want to use nanotech to cure illness—and to deploy nanos as weaponry. This is hardly a secret. You can find bold statements of intent everywhere, from best-selling books to YouTube videos posted by the would-be perpetrators themselves.

  It’s far more difficult to prove that secret agents are deploying invisible nanotech right now. Johnson primes the pump with her more articulate version the oft-repeated mantra: “Top secret tech is decades ahead of anything we see today!!” To support this notion, she cites the former head of NASA’s Langley Research Center, Dennis Bushnell, whose infamous 2001 slideshow “Future Strategic Issues/Future Warfare [Circa 2025]” has been making the rounds for many years.

  

  Johnson goes through a list of exotic technologies—genetic engineering of human beings, implantable electronics, nanobots, smart dust, biocomputing, artificial life, etc. She then interprets a vague bullet point on Bushnell’s slide as meaning “such technologies remain in inventory for over forty years” so they were “no pixie dust” back in 2001. If I understand Johnson correctly, she’s saying classified technology is already forty years into the Future™!

  To support this mythos, Johnson cites the Harvard science historian Peter Galison, who once argued that “classified scientific research is five to ten times larger than what we see in the open literature.” That wildly imprecise estimate seems overblown to me, but for the sake of argument, let’s assume this is true.

  Why should we assume this galaxy of classified R&D has produced a slew of viable technologies? Think of it this way:

  Two primary objectives of nanotech are to cure disease and reverse aging. If our clandestine agencies have nanos that are decades ahead of what we see today, why are Ray Kurzweil and Klaus Schwab deteriorating before our eyes? Wouldn’t they be among the first to get a neurological nano-boost, or at least a cellular face-lift?

  Have their minds been uploaded to a secret metaverse for the elite, leaving their senile husks to babble onstage?

  As a thought experiment, let’s imagine Bushnell’s speculative NASA slideshow contains literal descriptions of existent tech in 2001—actual “‘Bots and ‘Borgs” and “wonderous/ubiquitous land/sea/air/space multiphysics/hyperspectral sensor swarms.”

  Okay then, why are two astronauts still stranded on the International Space Station? And why are windows blowing out of Boeing aircraft? Are NASA and Boeing pretending to be incompetent so no one looks for their secret moon base?

  I’m serious.

  To be fair, Johnson does confront the question: “Where is the tangible R&D?” However, her evidence is just another series of quotes from think tank employees and military propagandists who talk about all the great stuff they’re doing—i.e., justifying their paychecks. Johnson then cites a handful of well-funded nanotech projects. Allow me to put forward a counterpoint: so far, these people have wasted a lot of money for next to nothing in return.

  Johnson presents exactly zero evidence that labs have produced self-assembling nano-scale circuitry or nanobots that are ready to be deployed on a dozen people in the wild—let alone half the world’s population. Even worse, she goes on to show us crudely rendered cartoons of proposed biodigital networks as evidence of mature technologies. She concludes by defending certain “scientists” who claim to find vaxxbots under their microscope lenses (which, again, was sternly rebutted here).

  “It’s not pixie dust,” Johnson insists. Indeed, I’m more inclined to believe pixie dust actually exists.

  

  Johnson and Broudy’s co-author, David Hughes, won me over at first during his Omniwar presentation. He and I share an appreciation of the satanist-hunting schizoid, Vigilant Citizen, whose dot-connecting analysis of mass entertainment amused me for many years—at least until VC went behind an esoteric paywall. Even if our metaphysics differ, I thought to myself, Hughes and I would probably have much to discuss over a couple of pints.

  Then, as if to taunt me, Hughes went on to proudly endorse the harebrained theory that the World Trade Center towers were brought down by “directed free-energy technology”—a.k.a. space lasers. With a calm and confident British accent, Hughes suggested our “elite rulers” are lying about “finite resources” on earth so they can exert “global centralized control.”

  “What happens, then, if all of that is a founding myth? What happens if there is such a thing as free-energy technology?” Hughes asks skeptically. “What happens if there actually is the possibility of limitless abundance in the world? These are the things that people need to know about, because it really exposes the foundation of the control system.”

  Good questions. Allow me to pose another. What happens when the Skeptoid Ouroboros leads an otherwise sharp individual to abandon centuries of scientific research in favor of unlimited oil and magic “pixie dust” technology?

  Is the ultimate objective for “the people” to get their hands on this “free-energy technology” so we can, I dunno, inject ourselves with life-extension serum or build space communes on Mars?

  Look, I’m gonna let you in on a dark secret of the cosmos: most people will believe anything. That includes a belief in absurd technologies, whether benevolent or malevolent. A person’s high IQ is no protection from that tendency. In fact, due to the ample mental space a big brain provides, it’s oftentimes a handicap.

  

  To paraphrase Mork: “Nano, nano.”

  I humbly suggest that Johnson, Broudy, and Hughes look up from their stacks of white papers for a moment and think about what they’re saying. If top secret projects really are “twenty years ahead of anything we see today,” there would be an unknown continent where flying cars buzz around AI-controlled cities running on cold fusion generators. Maybe scientists there are using time machines to bring back dinosaurs for the local zoo.

  No one can prove a negative. So I cannot prove that ubiquitously deployed nanobots don’t exist. Nor can I prove that viable flying cars (not those wobbly mini-copters) and sustainable cold fusion are only pipedreams clogging up the patent office. It’s a big world out there. What do I know?

  But after five hours of listening to the Omniwar Symposium, I’m less convinced of vaccine- or chemtrail-borne nanos than when I began. Instead, I’m even more convinced that internet-borne memes can attach themselves to a person’s brain and detach his or her consciousness from objective reality.

  I am not arguing that the vaxxbot theories floated by Johnson, Broudy, and Hughes are untrue. I am saying I don’t believe them. Their source material is of great value and I commend their research efforts. But their aggressive conclusions are unconvincing.

  As for my readers, I encourage you to listen to this trio, to read their papers carefully, and draw your own conclusions. By now you know I have no intention of telling you what to believe. Not that it would matter if I did. If there’s one thing I’ve learned over the past few years, it’s that people will believe whatever they like.

  *  *  *

  Subscribe the Bombthrower mailing list to get these pieces as they drop, you’ll also receive a free copy of The Crypto Capitalist Manifesto. Sign up for Joe Allen’s Singularity Weekly here.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/19/2024 – 22:10

• "Consumers Running Out Of Money": Former Target Exec Offers Dire Warning Ahead Of Christmas
  “Consumers Running Out Of Money”: Former Target Exec Offers Dire Warning Ahead Of Christmas

  US corporate media outlets continue to push propaganda that the economy thrives ahead of the presidential elections, cheerleading the most recent retail sales print. However, most Americans know MSM is full of ‘malarkey’ because inflation and interest rates force many to spend more but receive less. Many folks have depleted their personal savings and racked up insurmountable credit card debt just to keep up with rising food, energy, insurance, and shelter costs. This toxic mix of inflation, sparked by failed Bidenomics, has hit low- and middle-income families the hardest, potentially leading to a breaking point this upcoming holiday shopping season.

  “It’s very clear that consumers are running out of money. They’re increasingly stressed by inflation and the exhaustion of their pandemic-era savings. When you take a look over the last several years, what you see month after month, everyone talks about, the consumer’s still spending. They might be, but they’re spending less than the growth of inflation,” Storch Advisors CEO Gerald Storch told Fox Bussiness’ Maria Bartiromo on Thursday during an interview. 

  

  Bartiromo then asked Storch about his forecast on the upcoming spending season between Black Friday and Christmas. The former Target executive said, “[I don’t expect] too much, frankly … and think that [if] we can get growth in [the] 2.5% range, that’d be doing pretty well, and that’s not very good. In the heydays there, we’d really want to see something that’s more like 4% type of growth. You have, by the way, the shortest holiday season you can even imagine, so that’s against retailers.” 

  Besides Target, Storch was also the former CEO at Toys “R” Us. He noted, “Now and the time between Thanksgiving and Christmas is very, very short, so that’s going to be bad. The election’s going to weigh on things and the geopolitical situation as well, so I think it’s going to be a pretty weak Christmas.” 

  The longtime retail executive’s ominous warning about consumers stalling this holiday season comes after retail sales showed consumers increased their purchases at retailers last month. However, this is only because of higher prices. In other words, consumers are spending more but receiving less.

  Storch’s outlook for the holiday season comes after Goldman analysts noted that the “trade-down phenomenon” has rippled across high-end and low-end consumers. The last time “trading down” mentions soared on earnings calls was during the GFC crisis in 2008. 

  

  This chart sums up the consumer’s dire state. 

  

  We noted earlier this week that the National Retail Federation’s annual Prosper Insights & Analytics survey showed lower forecasted spending trends for Halloween among consumers nationwide. The last time this happened was just before the Covid crash. All eyes should be on upcoming Black Friday and Cyber Monday to gauge holiday shopping trends.

  

  One last thing: perhaps mounting economic hardships are some of the drivers as to why US drinking rates have surged to the highest levels since the 1970s inflation storm. 

  

  Millions of Americans feel stressed in this disastrous Bidenomics era—it’s only a matter of time before something gives.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/19/2024 – 21:35

• How To Remove Fluoride From Your Water At Home
  How To Remove Fluoride From Your Water At Home

  Authored by Sheramy Tsai via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  When Grand Rapids, Michigan, became the first city to add fluoride to its water supply in 1945, it was hailed as a major public health innovation aimed at preventing cavities. Many other cities quickly followed suit, and water fluoridation became a widespread practice nationwide.

  

  Today, with fluoride easily accessible in toothpaste and mouthwash, its added value in drinking water has been called into question. A review from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews found that fluoridated water reduces tooth decay by only a tiny amount—about a quarter of a tooth surface—raising doubts about its effectiveness.

  For decades, fluoride has quietly flowed through our taps, touted as a safeguard for dental health. But what if this commonly accepted chemical—long promoted for its benefits to teeth—is something you’d prefer to avoid?

  Growing evidence suggests fluoride may pose risks beyond our teeth, affecting thyroid health, cognitive development, and more. This concern has led many to seek ways to eliminate fluoride from their lives. Whether you’re wary of long-term exposure or simply want cleaner water for your family, there are solutions. From advanced filtration systems to simple DIY methods, here’s how to remove fluoride from your water—and your life.

  Push to End Fluoridation

  A February systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis published in Environmental Research linked excessive fluoride exposure to thyroid issues, and a 2016 National Toxicology Report noted an association between fluoride and lowered IQ in children.

  In September, a federal judge ordered the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to take regulatory action on fluoride, citing evidence that community water fluoridation at 0.7 mg/L may pose an unreasonable risk to children’s health under the Toxic Substances Control Act. The court did not mandate specific steps, leaving the EPA “obliged to take regulatory action in response.”

  Pharmacist and thyroid specialist Izabella Wentz echoes these concerns, telling The Epoch Times, “Reducing fluoride exposure is crucial for supporting overall health and well-being.”

  Wentz notes that while most Western European nations have ceased fluoridating their water, the United States, Canada, and parts of the UK continue the practice.

  How to Remove Fluoride From Your Water At Home

  As the debate over fluoridation in public water systems continues, many households opt to address the issue themselves. Below are some of the most popular methods for reducing fluoride exposure at home.

  Reverse Osmosis Systems

  Reverse osmosis (RO) systems are highly effective at removing fluoride and other contaminants from drinking water, filtering out up to 84 percent through a semipermeable membrane. This purification process forces water through the membrane, leaving impurities behind. Fluoride expert Richard Sauerheber told The Epoch Times that modern RO systems can operate for years with minimal maintenance while effectively reducing fluoride levels.

  However, RO systems have certain drawbacks. According to Tom Volinchak, author of “Open Tap – Drink Poison,” they can produce up to 17 gallons of wastewater for every gallon of filtered water and remove beneficial minerals, which may need to be reintroduced for taste and health benefits.

  Despite these challenges, point-of-use RO systems remain an affordable and attractive option, typically costing under $1,000. They are especially beneficial in areas with higher fluoride contamination. For those seeking more comprehensive filtration, whole-house RO systems can cost upwards of $15,000.

  Activated Alumina Filters

  Activated alumina filters, such as Berkey’s PF-2, can remove up to 97 percent of fluoride and provide a convenient countertop solution that requires no plumbing or electricity. These filters use aluminum oxide to capture fluoride molecules on their porous surface.

  However, there are concerns that small amounts of aluminum may be released into the water, and in alkaline conditions, these filters may leach harmful aluminum-fluoride complexes. Filters must be replaced regularly, typically after 1,000 gallons, and some users report a decline in water quality over time.

  It should be noted that aluminum exposure might be of concern for those using activated alumina filters.

  Bone Char Filters

  Bone char is another distinct option for filtering fluoride from drinking water. Made from crushed animal bones heated in a kiln under low-oxygen conditions, bone char naturally absorbs fluoride and other contaminants, such as heavy metals, making it an effective filtration tool. Bone char’s ability to trap fluoride raises an important question: If animal bones can absorb fluoride so effectively, what impact might fluoride have on the bones in our own bodies?

  Research shows that 99 percent of fluoride lives in bones. A 2023 study in JAAOS Global Research & Reviews found that children living in areas with higher fluoride levels in drinking water experienced more bone fractures, especially in the arm and elbow.

  Bone char filters work through adsorption, where fluoride molecules adhere to the surface of the char as water passes through. However, its filtration lifespan can be unpredictable, varying with fluoride levels, and requires regular monitoring and replacement.

  Sauerheber cautions that the quality of bone char varies by source—char from Scotland is known to be highly effective but harder to find, while Brazilian char may be less reliable. This variability makes reverse osmosis a more consistent option for most households.

  Ion Exchange Systems

  Ion exchange systems use resin beads to replace fluoride ions with less harmful ions, such as chloride, effectively lowering fluoride levels. However, these systems come with environmental concerns—plastic resin beads contribute to plastic waste, and aging filters may release microplastics or concentrated fluoride.

  Frequent filter replacements make ion exchange systems expensive, particularly in regions with high fluoride levels. Additionally, the environmental impact raises sustainability concerns for many households, said Volinchak.

  Limitations of Certified Filtration Products

  Volinchak points out that not all filtration systems perform as effectively as their certifications suggest. Organizations like the Water Quality Association and the National Sanitation Foundation certify filters based on their ability to remove a specific percentage of contaminants. However, these certifications do not guarantee that the filtered water is entirely safe to drink.

  Volinchak warns that even filters claiming to remove 98 percent of a contaminant may be insufficient if the contaminant levels in the source water are particularly high. In such cases, harmful amounts of fluoride can remain after filtration. This highlights the importance of regularly testing your water’s contamination levels to ensure your filtration method is effective.

  Distillation: A DIY Approach

  For those seeking a more hands-on method to remove fluoride, distillation provides a reliable, though labor-intensive, solution. This process involves boiling water and collecting the steam, which is then condensed back into liquid, leaving fluoride and other contaminants behind. However, distilled water lacks minerals, which many people find results in a flat or bland taste.

  Sauerheber notes, “Distillation works well but requires labor on the part of the consumer,” and it is essential to remineralize the water to avoid drinking overly purified, mineral-deficient water.

  While distillation is highly effective at removing fluoride, it requires time, equipment, and the additional step of reintroducing essential minerals.

  For those looking for a more convenient solution, water distillation machines offer an automated approach to fluoride removal. Distillation units are available in various sizes, from compact countertop models to larger units suited for higher volume needs.

  Although they eliminate the manual labor of traditional distillation, these machines produce mineral-free water, requiring remineralization for optimal taste and health. Additionally, they can be energy-intensive, which may increase utility costs over time.

  Five Ways to Reduce Your Fluoride Burden

  Reducing fluoride exposure is important for maintaining health. If you have already been exposed or live in an area with high fluoride levels, there are steps you can take to mitigate its effects. While no supplements can directly neutralize fluoride, certain nutrients and lifestyle changes may support the body’s natural detoxification processes. 1. Be Mindful of Fluoride in Foods and Products

  Beyond water, fluoride can sneak into your daily routine through common foods, beverages, and products. Wentz highlights that black and red teas and certain medications are hidden sources of fluoride because tea plants absorb fluoride from the soil. Additionally, foods processed with fluoridated water and certain pesticides can introduce fluoride into your diet, further contributing to overall exposure.

  “Swapping out conventional dental hygiene products for ones made without fluoride,” Wentz says, is another simple way to lower your fluoride intake. Reading labels and choosing fluoride-free options wherever possible can make a big difference.

  While the American Dental Association advises most people—children, adolescents, and adults—to brush twice a day with fluoride toothpaste for optimal dental health, many holistic dentists remain skeptical. They argue that there is not enough long-term evidence to fully support the safety of fluoride use in dental care.

  2. Boost Your Nutrient Intake

  Boosting nutrient intake can help counter fluoride’s effects on the body, particularly by supporting thyroid function. Fluoride competes with iodine, which is essential for hormone production. Ensuring adequate iodine intake from sources like seaweed, fish, dairy, or iodized salt helps protect the thyroid. However, Wentz cautions against high-dose iodine supplements, especially for those with thyroid disorders like Hashimoto’s, as it may worsen the condition.

  Calcium is another crucial nutrient, as it can bind with fluoride and reduce bone absorption. Magnesium helps balance fluoride and calcium, while antioxidants like vitamin C and selenium protect against the oxidative stress caused by fluoride exposure.

  Wentz recommends getting these essential nutrients primarily through a whole-food diet. However, supplements can provide an effective alternative for those with deficiencies

  Read the rest here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/19/2024 – 21:00

• Militants From Jordan Wound Israeli Soldiers In Rare Cross-Border Attack
  Militants From Jordan Wound Israeli Soldiers In Rare Cross-Border Attack

  Via Middle East Eye

  At least two Israeli soldiers have been wounded in an attack by gunmen who entered Israeli territory from Jordan, according to Israeli media reports. The incident on Friday took place in Neot HaKikar in the south Dead Sea area, close to the border with Jordan.

  Israeli media sources said that Israeli soldiers were searching the area for another possible attacker, while the Israeli army said it had killed two of the attackers and was looking for a third who fled the scene.

  

  The attack came a day after Israel claimed the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza. Earlier, the army said that its observers had noticed a group of men trying to infiltrate the border and had sent soldiers to confront them.

  Military officials have also told residents of the area to remain indoors as soldiers carry out searches for any other potential fighters. Unconfirmed images purporting to be of the slain attackers show them in military attire.

  Jordanian officials, however, have put out a statement saying that the attackers did not belong to the country’s armed forces and that the uniforms were not Jordanian military issue.

  Since the start of Israel’s war on Gaza, Jordan’s leaders have had to walk a fine line between heightened anti-Israel sentiment in the country and ensuring its own bilateral relationship with Israel.

  The country has a large population descended from Palestinian refugees forced to flee historic Palestine after the mass expulsions, widely known as the Nakba, and regularly sees mass protests in support of the Palestinian resistance in Gaza.

  Jordan’s Islamic Action Front, which is affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, lauded the attack. In a statement it said: “We celebrate the heroic attack carried out by the Amer Qawwas and Hossam Abu Ghazala in the Dead Sea region.”

  “We call on the government to reconsider its agreements with the Zionist enemy.”

  In September, Jordanian national and truck driver Maher Dhiab al-Jazi was shot and killed at the Allenby Bridge crossing with the occupied West Bank after killing three Israeli security guards. In a letter he left for his family, he said he was motivated by Israel’s ongoing atrocities against Palestinians in Gaza.

  

  At the same time, Jordan’s government has not significantly altered its diplomatic relationship with Israel, and trade ties between the two continue as normal.

  After Iran launched missile salvos at Israel in April and again in October, Jordanian armed forces were involved in attempting to down missiles flying over Jordanian territory, prompting domestic criticism.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/19/2024 – 20:25

• Study Finds School Choice Closes Low-Income Student Performance Gap
  Study Finds School Choice Closes Low-Income Student Performance Gap

  Authored by Savannah Hulsey Pointer via The Epoch Times,

  A new report reveals that school choice has significantly narrowed the academic performance gap between low-income students and their more affluent peers.

  

  The findings of the Progressive Policy Institute’s (PPI’s) October report underscore the positive impact of public charter schools in driving academic improvements across entire school districts, not just for students attending charter schools.

  According to the report, the achievement gap between low-income students and their counterparts in Camden, New Jersey, which had 68 percent of students enrolled in charter schools by 2023, was reduced by 42 percent between the 2010–2011 and 2022–2023 school years.

  From 2011 to 2023, the proportion of students attending charter schools in Camden increased, resulting in an increase of more than 20 percent in low-income pupil performance.

  The report discovered that the gap in Washington closed by 38 percent during the same period, with 45 percent of pupils enrolled in charter schools.

  In Indianapolis, the gap narrowed by 23 percent, with 58 percent of pupils attending charter schools.

  The report indicates that nonwhite students are among the most significant beneficiaries of school choice, accounting for 70 percent of charter school pupils in the cities surveyed, despite only making up approximately half of the district.

  Charter schools are publicly funded, tuition-free, and accessible to all students.

  However, they differ from traditional public schools in their operational flexibility and governance.

  Charter schools are subject to the same federal laws regarding nondiscrimination and admission, but they have a greater degree of autonomy over their curriculum, personnel, and scheduling.

  Because of the increased self-governance, charter schools can customize and innovate their educational programs to accommodate the unique requirements of their student bodies.

  The report emphasizes the substantial increases in academic performance observed in cities with a significant number of charter schools, particularly among low-income students.

  Those students have made major strides in closing the achievement disparity with their peers in cities where at least one-third of students attend charter schools or charter-like institutions, according to the study.

  This trend has been observed in numerous cities throughout the United States, where public charter schools comprise a significant portion of total school enrollment.

  The report indicates that a key factor driving this progress is the higher accountability standards to which charter schools are held.

  Unlike traditional district schools, which are rarely closed for poor performance, charter schools must meet specific educational objectives outlined in their charter agreements.

  These schools are periodically reviewed, and if they fail to meet the required performance standards, their charters can be revoked.

  This performance-based accountability typically creates a system in which underperforming schools are either improved or replaced by higher-performing ones, ensuring that students receive a better education.

  The PPI report also recognizes a “spillover effect” in cities that have robust educational choice programs.

  In a city that has a combination of traditional and charter schools, the competition among schools fosters improvement throughout the entire system, which is advantageous to all students.

  This dynamic motivates traditional public schools to enhance their performance to retain enrollment and encourages them to implement innovative practices from charter schools.

  In addition to attention on charter schools, the option of homeschooling is growing in popularity with parents across the nation.

  New data from the Johns Hopkins Institute for Education Policy’s homeschool research lab show that 90 percent of states reporting data saw an increase in homeschooling in the 2023–2024 school year.

  The report examined data from 21 out of 30 states that collect or report homeschool participation information. The other nine states are expected to report data in the coming months.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/19/2024 – 19:50

• From Grey-List To Gold-Standard
  From Grey-List To Gold-Standard

  2024 was always likely to be a year of geopolitical volatility. Confronted with the hangovers of 2023’s conflicts, high inflation and civil unrest, 2024’s convergence of 64 global elections, uncertainty over the future of trade, natural resources, sovereign debt, environment and population provided an ethically divisive opportunity for the media to double down on partisan opinion, stoking further fear and polarity. From the coverage of Britain’s recent riots through to the U.S.’s 180-degree treatment of its Democratic presidential candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, the word ‘gaslighting’ has emerged from the fringes of our lexicon to become a key descriptor of the mainstream news cycle.

  As a regular subject for this type of coverage, Dubai’s popularity and success as a business, trade and tourism destination has made itself an easy target, no part in thanks to its gold industry, which has risen to become one the world’s largest physical markets.

  In a recent piece published in June, The Times’ “Cocaine Inc: how British drugs cash is turned into solid gold in Dubai” highlights the emirate’s position as a target for U.K’s drug gangs in the form of cash mules, as well as some unfounded accusations about undeclared gold imports. As an investigative piece, where at least some of the perpetrators have already been tried and found guilty, the report also highlighted that criminality is rarely restricted by national borders, but instead passported. With the Dubai authorities having worked closely with organizations such as the World Gold Council, the UAE’s National Anti-Money Laundering and Combating Financing of Terrorism and Financing of Illegal Organizations Committee (NAMLCFTC) and INTERPOL, the evidence has become abundantly clear that if we want to fully remove illicit activity and money laundering, there must be a concerted effort to address the root causes and not the symptoms.

  In credit to The Times, its Cocaine Inc series does address the extent of the UK’s drug abuse culture, which ranges from blue collar workers all the way up to the highest echelons of power. According to The Guardian, as covered by The Times, “traces of a class-A drug, said to be a white powder, were found at Chevening, the grace-and-favor mansion of Liz Truss, then the foreign secretary. Separate sources told the paper that they had found similar deposits in the offices at No. 10 after two lockdown parties held when Johnson was prime minister.”

  Depending on your source, the value of Britain’s illicit drug trade is around GBP 10bn (USD 13.2bn) with an ultimate cost to the economy of around GBP 37bn (USD 49.10bn) and while there are no doubt some gangs that have tried to launder money through Dubai, doing so domestically remains by far the path of least resistance. According to Transparency International UK, GBP 6.7bn ($8.89bn) of laundered money was invested in UK property in the six years between 2016 – 2022, and while GBP 1.5bn ($1.99bn) of that is tied to Russians accused of corruption or links to the Kremlin, that still leaves a sizeable sum. Meanwhile, on the high street, Britain’s money service businesses (MSBs) have also helped to facilitate considerable volume, with just one money service shop in London laundering GBP 310mn ($411mn) in just one year, before being closed in 2019. Other businesses targeted include barber shops. According to Former Metropolitan Police Officer Ali Hassan Ali, “Right across High Streets we have seen a boom in barbers opening up since the pandemic. A lot of these shops have thousands of pounds of equipment but no customers.” According to figures published by the Home Office, HM Treasury and Serious Fraud Office, Britain launders GBP 150bn (USD 199.bn) each year, making it the second largest money laundering economy in the world after the United States.

  What The Times, and many newspapers like it won’t do is address the elephant in the room – that Britain has been consistently let down by a series of inept administrations who fail to acknowledge a simple, fundamental fact – that allowing a narcotics trade with a value close to the GDP of the Bahamas to not only operate but flourish within its borders will not lead to positive outcomes.

  According to one source over 50 per cent of all suicides, the leading cause of death for men aged 20 – 34 in England and Wales, are associated with alcohol and drug dependence and despite 4,907 drug- related deaths in 2022, the highest number since records began, the penalties for possession of a class A drug are a maximum of seven years in prison and an unlimited fine – neither of which are truly ever enforced.

  Comparatively, there are several reasons why the UAE doesn’t have an illicit drug trade; one of which is its zero-tolerance towards trafficking, which in some cases can result in the death penalty, and while its laws and punishments may be considered harsh by some, the net positive means law abiding citizens can live in what is recognized as one of the world’s safest countries.

  In the wake of the UK riots, sparked by the horrific murder of three young girls in Southport, more attention seemed to be spent on rounding up those who, in many cases, protested peacefully or commented on social media, before even considering addressing the public’s clear and obvious concerns. Similar to the ever growing drugs trade, the mass migration of illegal, mostly fighting-age men at the cost of the British taxpayer to the tune of GBP 14bn (USD 18.57bn) per year will also not lead to peaceful outcomes, particularly while its beleaguered National Health Service has a wait list of 7.62 million cases as of July 2024, and approximately 4.3 million of its children are estimated to live in poverty. In the government’s most recent catastrophe, Keir Starmer’s plan to issue the early release to some 1,700 inmates, has also appeared to have backfired, with at least one man already back in the dock, likely to return to prison for allegedly committing a sexual assault within hours of release. In Scotland, an estimated one in ten of some 477 early release prisoners were back behind bars within weeks, including 12 who were out for 10 days or less. And all this from a G7 nation.

  In keeping with focusing on anything but the foundational issue, The Times’ coverage of Dubai’s tangential role in a problem that originates in Britain, for which its government shows very little interest in solving, is yet another reason why the mainstream news is dying. It also coincides at a time when a “gaslit” general public is waking up and tuning to journalists who shine a light on those who’ve actually operated with complete impunity at the cost of others – a great example being Ezra Levant and Avi Yemini confronting Pfizer CEO, Albert Bourla while attending Davos in 2023.

  This isn’t to diminish the severity of any laundering activity that occurs in Dubai courtesy of Britain’s narcotics trade; however, it is easy to see why at best, it represents the tip of a far larger, often unaddressed iceberg.

  Since being placed on the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF), ‘grey list’ in March 2022, the UAE has significantly enhanced its protocols for monitoring and identifying illicit activity at each stage, resulting in its removal from the list in February 2024. As a result, it has maintained a strict approach to monitoring, resulting in significant clamp downs on sectors including finance, property, and precious metals. A recent example of this enhanced domestic monitoring can be found in the UAE Ministry of Economy’s recent suspension for 32 gold refineries, which were found to be in violation of rules such as Know Your Client protocols and suspicious transaction reporting. As clearly stated by Abdullah Ahmed Al Saleh, Undersecretary of the Ministry of Economy, “The UAE affirms its firm commitment to developing an integrated legislative and regulatory system to combat money laundering,” and to achieve “the highest levels of compliance” within its gold sector’s due diligence regulations “by keeping pace with the best global practices in this regard.”

  Similarly, the LBMA’s decision to drop its jurisdictional challenge in its Tanzania labeling case is another example of an institution acknowledging due process and taking responsibility for its role as a global certification body – and while this will test, for the first time, whether a certification body can be held legally responsible for a flawed certification process, it is better for a system to be tested and found at fault, rather to be untested at all.

  Proactively speaking, the UAE has also made considerable efforts to align with organizations such as the World Gold Council in order to promote greater transparency, while building investor confidence. By addressing the wider lack of trust held by consumers, the World Gold Council, in collaboration with UAE authorities, is in the process of exploring the introduction of best practices for online gold trading. Mirroring initiatives in markets like Germany and the UK, the strategy aims to establish clear guidelines and ethical standards for digital gold platforms. Partially driven by the UAE’s expanding high-net-worth investor base, who increasingly favor gold bars and coins, the support of the WGC is a clear illustration of its commitment to collaborate with authorities to shape a more transparent and robust gold market.

  According to recent findings, the UAE continues to be the world’s top wealth magnet for a third year running and is expected to attract a record net inflow of 6,700 millionaires by the end of 2024. Conversely, the UK is expected to lose approximately 17 per cent of its millionaire population by 2028 according to Swiss bank, UBS.

  Commenting on the initiative, Andrew Naylor, Head of Middle East and Public Policy at World Gold Council said, “A new base of investors in the UAE and family offices are placing greater allocations on the metal. The UAE gold market is not just about gold jewellery alone, with bars and coin demand taking on higher volumes. If there is increased transparency in the transactions, it will benefit the whole precious metals market in the UAE. Because this market is already globally known for the purity of the gold sold via retail and other channels.”

  Other areas of collaboration with the WGC include an initiative to formalize artisanal gold mining. Conducted in a three-stage approach, the WGC aims to work in coordination with central banks to encourage them to purchase domestically produced artisanal gold, thereby boosting local economies and improving mining practices. Secondly, to explore technologies that can enhance transparency in the artisanal gold trade and help verify the origin of the gold, and finally commissioning a report on artisanal gold production to raise awareness about the issue and promote responsible sourcing practices.

  Today, the UAE is estimated to trade between 20 – 30 per cent of the world’s gold each year, meaning its monitoring processes are not only important for its domestic reputation, but for those economies that trade with it.

  While no nation is perfect, the current era of western political discourse and its alliance with the media, which evolves around denying obvious problems in the face of empirical fact needs to stop, if for no other reason than the sanity of its constituents and its relationship with the rest of the world.

  As with overcoming any toxic habit, acknowledging the underlying problem is always the first step.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/19/2024 – 19:15

• CDC Begins Assessment Of Border Pollution In San Diego County
  CDC Begins Assessment Of Border Pollution In San Diego County

  Authored by City News Service via The Epoch Times,

  Select South Bay residents began receiving visits from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control Thursday as the federal agency is partnering with the county in a health assessment to determine the impact of the Tijuana River Valley sewage pollution crisis.

  

  The county and CDC are working together on a Community Assessment for Public Health Emergency Response or CASPER. A total of 210 households were selected from a larger 30-block section of homes near the border to participate in the survey.

  “This assessment is a vital tool in addressing the public health crisis caused by sewage pollution in the Tijuana River Valley. By sharing your experiences, you are helping us gather the information we need to secure more resources and ensure the safety and well-being of our families,” San Diego County Board of Supervisors Chair Nora Vargas said. “I strongly encourage all residents to participate and make their voices heard.”

  Teams will arrive in small groups and will carry identification to reassure residents of their official role in this effort. They will be wearing reflective vests, and are bilingual in English and Spanish. Interviews will be anonymous and take around 15 minutes.

  

  Crews work on the Tijuana River outside of San Diego, Calif., on Sept. 19, 2024. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

  Visits will run through Saturday between 2 to 7 p.m. on Thursday and Friday and 10 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Saturday.

  “It is important to hear directly from people who live near the Tijuana River Valley,” said Dr. Ankita Kadakia, the county’s interim public health officer. “If you get a knock on your door in the next couple of days from a CASPER interview team, please speak with interviewers and provide your honest answers.”

  The responses will be used to guide decisions moving forward with the river valley and the people who live near it.

  “The CDC has supported our partners in using the CASPER method for decades to quickly gather household-based information about community health concerns,” said Dr. Aaron Bernstein, director of the CDC’s National Center for Environmental Health and Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry. “These interviews will provide firsthand insights into how the sewage contamination is impacting the daily lives of residents, helping to inform solutions.”

  The San Diego City Council recently approved a resolution asking for a national emergency regarding the sewage outflow at the border. The council had approved 31 years of consecutive extensions of a local state of emergency on the situation.

  

  A sewage treatment facility pumps in water from the Tijuana River outside of San Diego, Calif., on Sept. 19, 2024. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

  The largely symbolic item officially implores the federal government to make the local crisis a recognized national one, as well as asking for total funding of the Environmental Protection Agency’s infrastructure solution to the pollution.

  In early September, high levels of noxious gases such as hydrogen sulfide and hydrogen cyanide were measured by scientific teams in the river valley and noticed by residents due to the rotten egg smell even miles from the border. Ultimately, crews from San Diego County determined there was no immediate health risk, but many residents believed the crisis had reached a turning point.

  “We’re left feeling like the federal government has forgotten about us,” San Diego City Councilwoman Vivian Moreno said.

  The San Diego City Council first declared a state of emergency because of the pollution—ranging from raw sewage to industrial runoff—in 1993. Imperial Beach put out a similar declaration in 2017, followed by the county in 2023.

  Since October 2018, the United States section of the International Boundary and Water Commission has catalogued more than 200 billion gallons of toxic waste coming into the United States through the Tijuana River Valley. According to a city document on Tuesday’s resolution, the commission has spent just $4 million of $40 million allocated for infrastructure maintenance at the broken South Bay International Wastewater Treatment Plant.

  

  The city even sued the USIBWC to make the commission comply with the Clean Water Act. A total of $300 million was appropriated through the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement for the wastewater plant. In August, the USIBWC announced it will use the more than $400 million in federal funding secured by San Diego’s Congressional delegation to repair and expand the plant.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/19/2024 – 18:40

• Watch: In 'Kamala's America', Illegal Alien Smuggler Leads High-Speed Police Chase
  Watch: In ‘Kamala’s America’, Illegal Alien Smuggler Leads High-Speed Police Chase

  Texas Department of Public Safety Lt. Chris Olivarez posted a dramatic video on X showing police in hot pursuit of an illegal alien human smuggler in Webb County.

  Olivarez stated that the “high-speed chase” involved an illegal alien smuggler who crashed into DPS special agent’s vehicle.

  “During the pursuit, the smuggler, Guillermo Osto Navarette, an illegal immigrant from Mexico, disregarded several stop signs and crashed into a DPS Special Agent. Upon exiting the vehicle, Navarette resisted arrest and assaulted a Border Patrol Agent,” Olivarez said, adding that the smuggler was charged with “three counts of smuggling of persons, evading arrest, and assault on a peace officer.”

  TX Troopers Arrest Illegal Immigrant Smuggler After High-Speed Chase, Crashes Into DPS Special Agent & Assaults Border Patrol Agent

  10/15: A human smuggler driving a Chevy Malibu led @TxDPS Troopers on a high-speed pursuit in Webb County this week.

  During the pursuit, the… pic.twitter.com/K92NAzqSAL

  — Chris Olivarez (@LtChrisOlivarez) October 18, 2024

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  NewsNation’s Ali Bradley posted a mugshot of the illegal alien smuggler from Mexico…

  NEW: Texas DPS releases mugshot of illegal immigrant from Mexico attempting to smuggle other illegal immigrants also from Mexico, into the interior of the United States.

  Guillermo Osto Navarette was arrested following a pursuit, crash and agent assault in Webb county, Texas.… pic.twitter.com/rxiAf1AdNN

  — Ali Bradley (@AliBradleyTV) October 18, 2024

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  Illegal alien smugglers running rampant across America have only been made possible by open southern borders, pushed by Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party, aiming to import a new voting class of people to win elections in swing states and ultimately create a one-party nation. The dangerous influx of ten million unvetted migrants from third-world countries continues to cause chaos nationwide.

  

  In July, a high-speed chase in Arkansas, where an illegal alien nearly killed a member of law enforcement, shocked the nation.

  Arkansas: Heroic Motorist Rescues Female State Trooper Under Attack by Drunk Illegal Alien

  An Arkansas woman is being hailed as a heroine after she stopped to aid an officer being attacked by an intoxicated illegal alien during a recent traffic stop that ended in a shooting,… pic.twitter.com/vDvTbuXVdh

  — Border Hawk (@BorderHawkNews) September 20, 2024

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  Importing the third world into the first world has consequences. Americans are learning this the hard way, with thousands of heavily armed members of Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua prison gang now roaming American streets. Even the US Army, in leaked documents, has sounded the alarm.

  All Americans want is low crime and the opportunity to prosper economically. Democrats have delivered the opposite, prioritizing illegal aliens over their own citizens. Voters/taxpayers should be outraged. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/19/2024 – 18:05

• Will A Potemkin Election Follow Biden's Potemkin Presidency?
  Will A Potemkin Election Follow Biden’s Potemkin Presidency?

  Authored by James Bovard,

  Blindfolds and systemic deceit are the death of self-government…

  

  President Biden has been derided for being a Potemkin president, a figurehead in a vast charade portraying him actually running the government.  Biden was forced to withdraw from the presidential race after his disastrous debate performance against Donald Trump in June.   But is a Potemkin presidency being followed by a Potemkin election?

  Biden’s expulsion from the presidential race did not herald the arrival of truth. Most of the media still tolerates pervasive secrecy on prime issues of the 2024 campaign.

  In bygone times, elections were about self-government.  Nowadays, voters merely have a cameo role to sanctify the nearly boundless power of officialdom.  Every year, the federal government slaps a “secret” label on trillions of pages of information – enough to fill 20 million filing cabinets.  And since the government is automatically benevolent (if a Democrat is president), there is no need to trouble citizens with the grisly details of how they are being served.

  At the same time Special Counsel Jack Smith is racing to fling all possible dirt at Trump before Election Day, each week we learn of new cover-ups designed to deceive Americans about how badly they have been misgoverned:

  1. Biden administration has mostly succeeded in covering up the crime wave by illegal aliens ushered into the nation since 2021. Former Border Patrol Sector Chief Aaron Heitke testified to Congress last month that the Biden administration hid the adverse impact from deluging U.S. cities with illegal aliens, including those with terror ties.

  2. The National Archives announced on Wednesday that it would delay until after the election the release of potentially damning records on Vice President Joe Biden’s dealings with his son and foreign wheelers-dealers – records that have been sought for more than a year by conservative lawyers and activists.

  3. Biden’s Justice Department sought to bury all the tax charges against Hunter Biden but were thwarted thanks to courageous IRS whistleblowers.  Hunter’s guilty plea last month to the tax charges confirms that the Justice Department’s offer a wrist-slap plea bargain to Hunter last year was a shameless obstruction of justice.

  4. Biden’s FBI last year created “a new category of extremists that it seeks to track and counter: Donald Trump’s army of MAGA followers,” Newsweek reported. FBI whistleblowers have exposed the politicization of an agency that even secretly targeted traditional Catholics who prefer to hear mass in Latin. But the vast majority of FBI surveillance and entrapment abuses remain shrouded.

  5. Team Biden is covering up both Trump assassination attempts. Biden appointees have stonewalled bipartisan congressional investigations into the abysmal Secret Service failures at Butler, Pennsylvania.  The Justice Department has indefinitely delayed hearings for Ryan Routh, the 58-year-old guy caught waiting to shoot Trump on his Florida golf course.  Delaying proceedings against Routh assures that Americans will not learn before the election whether the would-be assassin had ties to the CIA, Pentagon, State Department or other agencies that assisted Routh with his massively-publicized campaign to recruit foreign soldiers to fight for Ukraine.

  6. The Biden administration continues covering up almost everything regarding its support for Ukraine’s fight against Russia.  The best info Americans have received was thanks to a young military computer technician who leaked revelations that the Ukrainian military was in far worse shape than Team Biden claimed. Americans have been forced to pay hundreds of billions of dollars but are left in the dark regarding Biden administration machinations that risk pulling this nation into World War Three.

  7. The House Oversight Committee this week subpoenaed DHS for its records on Tim Walz’s possible ties to the CCP after being contacted by a whistleblower.  There is zero chance that the Biden administration will release any of those records before Election Day.

  8. Political convenience is practically the sole determinant of what Americans are permitted to learn nowadays.  After Biden dropped his re-election bid, the administration disclosed records showing that his son Hunter sought U.S. government handouts for Burisma when Joe Biden was Vice President.  That scandal was buried until Joe Biden was no longer politically relevant.

  Is censorship the biggest X factor for this election? Four years ago, the presidential election may have been swung by the coverup of the damning revelations in Hunter Biden’s laptop.  The FBI and the CIA hustled to censor and defuse that story with false rebuttals in October 2020.  According to multiple federal court rulings, federal agencies tampered with the 2020 election by censoring millions of comments by Americans who raised doubts about the trustworthiness of mail-in ballots and other election procedures. Federal judge Terry Doughty noted that  “virtually all of the free speech suppressed was ‘conservative’ free speech.”  A federal appeals court issued an injunction prohibiting federal officials from acting “to coerce or significantly encourage social-media companies to remove, delete, suppress, or reduce . . . posted social-media content containing protected free speech.”

  But the Supreme Court refused to recognize that the censorship victims had any legal standing and canceled the injunction.   Americans will likely have no idea how many muzzles and blindfolds were secretly attached by federal agencies and federal contractors before Election Day.

  Don’t expect journalists to suddenly get hot to thwart those Biden cover-ups. When the media shrouded Biden’s mental debility, it directly endorsed de facto secret rule. How much effort has the New York Times or Washington Post or National Public Radio exerted to reveal who is actually exercising the supreme power nowadays? Exposing that issue could derail Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign so it is ignored. But ​​​​​Biden is as oblivious as ever. When asked by a reporter on Thursday about the situation in the Hurricane Helene storm zone, Biden replied that those states “are getting everything they need. They are very happy across the board.”

  Earth to Uncle Joe?!?

  But as long as Donald Trump is not elected next month, most of the Washington media doesn’t care who is in control. If the Wizard of Oz was a contemporary political campaign story, the media would overwhelmingly side with the guy behind the curtain.

  As long as the Wizard recited “Orange Man Bad,” the media would cover up all his abuses.

  But “informed consent” is a mirage if the feds blindfold voters.

  As long as Team Biden keeps a lid on its worst outrages until Election Day, Democrats can snare four more year to abuse the Constitution, the law, and the American people. Unfortunately, self-government is not retroactive.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/19/2024 – 17:30

• No Central Bank Wants To Stop Price Inflation
  No Central Bank Wants To Stop Price Inflation

  Authored by Daniel Lacalle via The Mises Institute,

  Many citizens want more government control of the economy to curb rising prices. It is the worst strategy imaginable. Interventionist governments never reduce consumer prices because they benefit from inflation, dissolving their political spending commitments in a constantly depreciated currency. Inflation is the perfect hidden tax. The government makes the currency less valuable by issuing more units of fiat money, partially dissolves its debt in real terms, collects more taxes, and presents itself as the solution to rising prices with subsidies in an increasingly worthless currency.

  That is why socialism and hyperinflation go hand in hand.

  

  Socialism rejects human action and economic calculation and sells a false image of a government that can create wealth at will by issuing more units of fiat currency. Obviously, when inflation arrives, the socialist government will use its two favorite tools: propaganda and repression. Propaganda, which accuses stores and businesses of driving up prices, and repression, which occurs when social unrest intensifies and citizens legitimately hold governments accountable for scarcity and high prices, are the two main strategies.

  If you want lower prices, you need to give less economic power to the government, not more. Only free markets, competition, and open economies help decrease consumer prices. Many readers might think that we currently have a free market with competitive and open economies, but the reality is that we live in increasingly intervened and overregulated nations where central banks and governments work to perpetuate unsustainable public deficits and debt. Therefore, they continue to print more money, leading many to question why it is getting harder for families to make ends meet, buy a home, or for small businesses to prosper. The government is slowly eating away the currency it issues. They call it “social use of money.”

  What is “social use of money”? In essence, it means abandoning one of the main characteristics of money, the reserve of value, to give the government preferential access to credit to finance its commitments. Therefore, the state can announce larger entitlement programs and increase the size of the public sector relative to the economy, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. The state issues more currency, which makes people’s money less valuable. Citizens become more dependent on the state, and they will demand more subsidies paid in the currency the state issues. It is, in essence, a process of control through debt and currency depreciation.

  When governments and central banks talk about price stability, it means a two percent annual depreciation of the currency. Aggregate prices rising an average of two percent is hardly price stability because it is measured by the consumer price index, which is a carefully crafted basket of goods and services weighted by the same people who print the money. That is why governments love CPI as a measure of inflation. It fails to fully reflect the erosion of the currency’s purchasing power. This is why the CPI’s basket calculation fluctuates so frequently. Even if it accurately measures, it will underestimate the rise in prices of non-replaceable goods and services by adding them to a basket of things we consume maybe once or twice a year at best. When you put together shelter, food, health, and energy with technology and entertainment, there will always be distortions.

  Thus, governments and central banks are never going to defend price stability. If aggregate prices fell, competition soared, and citizens saw their real wages rise and their deposit savings increase in real value, their jobs would disappear.

  When a central bank like the Fed cuts rates and increases the money supply after an accumulated 20.4% inflation in four years, it is not defending price stability; it is defending price increases. This strategy serves to conceal the government’s financial insolvency. A currency with a declining value.

  Governments are the ones that create inflation by spending a currency that is constantly losing purchasing power because the state issues more than what the private sector demands. No corporation or allegedly evil oil producer can make aggregate prices rise and continue increasing annually at a lower pace. Only the one that prints the money, and central banks don’t print money because they want to; they increase the money supply to absorb rising public deficit spending.

  Inflation is a hidden tax, a slow process of nationalization of the economy, and the perfect way to increase taxes without angering voters and blaming private businesses in the meantime. The consumer will likely blame the store or business for higher prices, not the issuer of a currency that loses purchasing power.

  Why would governments want higher prices? Because it gives them more power. Destroying the currency they issue is a perfect form of control. That is why they need more debt and higher taxes. High taxes are not a tool to reduce debt, but rather to justify rising public indebtedness.

  You may have read numerous times that the government has unlimited borrowing power and can manage inflation to allow you to live comfortably. It is false. The government cannot issue all the debt it wants. It has an inflationary, economic, and fiscal limit.

  Inflation is a warning sign of declining currency confidence and a loss of purchasing power. The economic limit is evidenced by lower growth, lower employment, weaker real wages, secular stagnation, and declining foreign demand for public debt.

  The fiscal limit is evidenced by soaring interest expenses even with low rates, weaker receipts every time they hike taxes, and citizens and businesses leaving the country to more friendly tax systems, all of which add to the poor or negative multiplier effect of government spending.

  If you want lower prices, you should give less economic power to governments, not more.

  A government that tells you it will borrow $2 trillion per annum in a growth and record receipt economy and will continue to increase debt and borrow well into 2033 with the most optimistic assumptions of GDP and receipt is telling you it will make you poorer.

  When a politician promises that he or she will cut prices, they are always lying. A weaker currency is a tool to increase government power in the economy. By the time you find out, it may be too late.

  Money is credit, and government debt is fiat currency. Currency depreciation is inflation, and inflation is equivalent to an implicit default. No interventionist government or central bank wants lower prices because inflation allows the government to increase its power while slowly breaching its monetary commitments.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/19/2024 – 16:20

• Elon Musk Warns "Car Industry Very Difficult" As "Ford & Tesla" Only "US Car Companies That Haven't Gone Bankrupt" 
  Elon Musk Warns “Car Industry Very Difficult” As “Ford & Tesla” Only “US Car Companies That Haven’t Gone Bankrupt” 

  Elon Musk appeared at the Greater Philadelphia Expo Center in Montgomery County on Friday night for his second town hall in the battleground state of Pennsylvania. With just 16 days until the election, Musk – and his pro-Trump America PAC – are holding town halls statewide to support the former president.

  In an off-topic conversation, an audience member asked Musk why Tesla had not purchased the struggling EV competitor Rivian. 

  

  Musk responded:

  “I wish them the best. I hope they do well. The car industry is a very difficult industry. There’s only two US car companies that haven’t gone bankrupt, and that’s Ford and Tesla. Rivian’s going to have a hard time. It’s insanely difficult to compete in the car industry. If it were not for two technology discontinuities, one being electrification and the other being autonomy, I think Tesla could not succeed without solving both.”

  🚨ELON MUSK: “The car industry is a very difficult industry. There are only two car companies that haven’t gone bankrupt: Ford and Tesla. Rivian is going to have a hard time. It’s insanely difficult to compete in the car industry.

  If it were not for not just one, but two… pic.twitter.com/rOgdBiGJHq

  — Autism Capital 🧩 (@AutismCapital) October 19, 2024

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  Earlier this month, Rivian announced that third-quarter vehicle deliveries missed forecasts and lowered its full-year production guidance amid continued “component shortage.”

  Rivian said it delivered 10,018 vehicles in the quarter and produced 13,157 units. This missed FactSet estimates of 12,670 deliveries. 

  The problem with Rivian is the limited affordability options for most models—they’re out of reach for the average consumer. The company expects to launch a smaller Tesla Model Y-rivaling R2, which won’t roll out onto US highways until late 2026 or even 2027.

  Last month, Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas downgraded names like GM, Ford, Rivian, Magna International, and Phinia amid the slowdown in the auto market. 

  It doesn’t help when high interest rates and elevated vehicle prices have sent new monthly car payments skyrocketing higher in several years. 

  

  In a separate note earlier this year, MS Jonas pointed out that struggling EV companies could develop partnerships with legacy automakers. 

  

  Rivian recently partnered with Volkswagen, validating the analyst’s consolidation forecast in the space. 

  Here’s what X users are saying about Musk’s comments last night about Rivian:

  in reality, Tesla has nothing to gain by buying a company that egregiously burned through 23 *billion* un-successfully ramping a single product line

  — WeirdNerd (@xIronman777) October 19, 2024

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  Elon actually wants others to do well! This is another thing that folks don’t immediately realize. Tesla open sourced all their patents to help folks like Rivian out. He cares about the mission and wants competition out there to drive better products for all.

  — ĐOGEARMY GENERAL (@TheTeslaBull) October 19, 2024

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  They’ve burned so much cash. Soo soooo much cash. Prognosis for the future isn’t nearly as bright as Tesla either.

  That said… why would Tesla want to buy into such a cash drain? What tech do they have that’s even useful to Tesla?

  — Charlie (@CharliePryor) October 19, 2024

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  Shares of Rivian are down 57% this year – near record lows. Short interest is about 16.5% or about 122.3 million shares. 

  

  The price war Telsa started just a few short years ago to crush competition shows that Musk continues to win.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/19/2024 – 15:45

• Boeing, Union Reach Tentative Deal To End Strike, Ratification Vote Pending
  Boeing, Union Reach Tentative Deal To End Strike, Ratification Vote Pending

  Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

  Boeing and the union representing striking machinists have reached a tentative agreement that union leaders say should be presented to members for a ratification vote, paving the way for a potential end to the more than month-long strike.

  “With the help of Acting U.S. Secretary of Labor Julie Su, we have received a negotiated proposal and resolution to end the strike, and it warrants presenting to the members and is worthy of your consideration,” the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers Local 751 said in a statement on Oct. 19.

  Around 33,000 of Boeing’s unionized workers walked off the job on Sept. 13 after nearly 95 percent of the mostly West Coast workers rejected Boeing’s offer of a 25 percent pay hike over four years. The strike halted production of the company’s 737 Max, as well as the 767 and 777 widebody aircraft, with the company losing an estimated $1 billion per month due to the labor action.

  

  Union leaders said the tentative deal features “key improvements” over an earlier Sept. 12 proposal that are “aimed at resolving the strike.” The latest proposal includes a 35 percent wage increase over four years, a $7,000 ratification bonus, and reinstated incentive payouts. It also includes improved 401k contributions, a $105 pension multiplier, and restored call-in provisions.

  While Boeing’s latest proposal makes a number of concessions, it does not include a dedicated pension plan for new members, which was a key demand in previous negotiations. Instead, it emphasizes enhanced 401k contributions, including a 100 percent company match up to 8 percent and a one-time $5,000 contribution for eligible members.

  The union said it plans to hold a vote on the proposal on Oct. 23 that, if approved by a simple majority of members, will cement the tentative deal into a contract and end the strike.

  Union leaders said they are still finalizing the strike settlement agreement and, along with additional contract details, will present it to members for their consideration ahead of Wednesday’s vote.

  “The future of this contract is in your hands,” they said.

  In a statement issued on Oct. 19, Boeing said: “We look forward to our employees voting on the negotiated proposal.”

  The strike began at a challenging time for Boeing, which has been trying to ramp up production after a series of safety incidents and increased regulatory scrutiny in recent years. Analysts have warned that a prolonged strike could lead to lasting financial impacts, while credit-rating agencies have warned of potential ratings downgrades.

  Shortly after the strike began in mid-September, the plane maker announced a hiring freeze, a halt to nonessential spending, and teased the possibility of layoffs, in a bid to conserve cash and preserve the company’s long-term operations. At the time, Boeing also said it will temporarily release nonessential contractors and consultants, and pause employee retention programs, catered meals, and team events.

  As the strike dragged into October, Boeing announced that it will cut around 17,000 jobs and further delay the launch of the 777X, a new model that is already several years behind schedule.

  “Our business is in a difficult position, and it is hard to overstate the challenges we face together,” Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg said in an Oct. 11 memo to employees, which came on the same day that the plane maker announced in a press release that it expects to recognize negative impacts to its financial results when it reports third-quarter earnings on Oct. 23.

  Boeing attributed the impacts to charges related to certain commercial and defense programs, as well as the ongoing strike. The company now projects revenues of $17.8 billion, an operating cash flow deficit of $1.3 billion, and a loss of $9.97 per share.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/19/2024 – 15:10

• Iranian Proxies 'Tried To Assassinate Me & My Wife', Netanyahu Says After Drone Struck His Residence
  Iranian Proxies ‘Tried To Assassinate Me & My Wife’, Netanyahu Says After Drone Struck His Residence

  Update(1330ET): Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has essentially accused Iran of trying to assassinate him after a drone sent from Hezbollah struck his private residence outside of Tel Aviv Saturday morning. “The attempt by Iran’s proxy Hezbollah to assassinate me and my wife today was a grave mistake,” he said in an English statement on social media.

  “This is the first time since the beginning of the war that a target affiliated directly with Netanyahu has been hit,” Axios reported, though details of the extent of damage have been scant. Neither he nor his wife or family had been present at the residence when the attack on the upscale Caesarea neighborhood occurred. Israel’s military appeared to be tracking the drone, which traveled some 70km from Lebanon, but anti-air defenses appeared to have failed, with not so much as warning sirens going off.

  🚨 Breaking: Iran’s 🇮🇷 official IRGC Quds Forces Telegram channel published this photo, showing a direct hit at @netanyahu‘s 🇮🇱 residence 👇

  They are taking pride in their assassination attempt… Does Khamenei’s residence have similar bulletproof windows? We will learn soon 🎯 pic.twitter.com/DA3HzbpB6P

  — Dr. Eli David (@DrEliDavid) October 19, 2024

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  Some unverified reports are saying it was an Iranian Shahed 101 drone, which was briefly filmed at some point in the skies over the Tel Aviv area, and apparently mirrored by a nearby IDF helicopter.

  Times of Israel writes that “sirens did sound in Glilot north of Tel Aviv, which houses a major IDF intelligence base and the Mossad headquarters. Those sirens were not accompanied by warnings on the Home Front Command’s app or other platforms.”

  Israel’s Channel 12 is reporting that “Iran attempted to assassinate Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu” – citing a senior official.

  

  Below is Netanyahu’s statement in full…

  The attempt by Iran’s proxy Hezbollah to assassinate me and my wife today was a grave mistake.

  This will not deter me or the State of Israel from continuing our just war against our enemies in order to secure our future.

  I say to Iran and its proxies in its axis of evil:…

  — Benjamin Netanyahu – בנימין נתניהו (@netanyahu) October 19, 2024

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  Could this be the precursor to a major Israeli attack on Iran which the world has been anticipating? 

  Israel has vowed it will soon retaliate for the Oct.1st attack, but well over two weeks have passed since the ballistic missile attack which saw some 200 ballistic missiles pummel various sites in central Israel.

  * * *

  ’s home has been targeted in a drone attack sent from Hezbollah in Lebanon on Saturday. It happened at this private residence in Caesarea, north of Tel Aviv.

  A Netanyahu spokesperson confirmed that the drone struck near the residence, but the prime minister and his family were not home at the time of the attack, with details of the damage not disclosed. Remarkably, the inbound drone was captured on video, traveling close in proximity to an Israeli military helicopter, which may have been tracking and trying to shoot it down.

  תיעוד שמעלה הרבה שאלות ותהיות הבוקר: מסוק קרב של חיל האוויר במרדף אחרי כטב”ם חיזבאללה. בתיעוד הזה נראה שהכטב”ם עוקף אבל יש גם אשליה אופטית וזווית צילום- בכל מקרה, מתוך שלושה כטבמים ששוגרו מלבנון, אחד פגע ישירות במבנה בקסריה pic.twitter.com/zx9fr812BG

  — איתי בלומנטל 🇮🇱 Itay Blumental (@ItayBlumental) October 19, 2024

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  The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) indicated that the drone was one of three launched from Lebanon, with the other two having been intercepted.

  The fact that the Kamikaze UAV made it all the way to the prime minister’s residence has raised questions over the country’s defense and warning system. The Times of Israel reports:

  The short statement from Netanyahu’s office came after the IDF said that “a building had been hit” in the upscale town famous for its swanky villas and Roman ruins and amphitheater.

  “No warning sirens were sounded in Caesarea ahead of the drone impact and explosion,” the same report notes. “Footage posted to social media appeared to show attack helicopters in the air that were apparently hunting the drone further to the north.”

  Netanyahu’s office and the Israeli army have shared the following additional details, via Al Jazeera:

  • The drone was launched from Lebanon and directly hit the PM’s house in Caesarea.
  • Police arrived to locate the scene of the attack. At about the same time, sirens sounded in Tel Aviv.
  • Two other drones launched at the same time were reportedly intercepted.
  • The incident triggered alarms in the Glilot military base, but the military later determined that drones were not in that area.

  

  Additionally, the drone flew a significant distance of 70km from Lebanon, which suggests Hezbollah is greatly deepening the reach of its projectiles, as it vowed to do following constant IDF airstrikes on Beirut and amid the expanded IDF ground operation inside south Lebanon.

  Within hours after the drone attack on his home Netanyahu issued a defiant video on social media vowing that “nothing will deter” him while declaring that Israel is “going to win this war.” He further said that slain Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, killed by the army in Rafah this week, was “the terrorist mastermind whose goons beheaded our men, raped our women and burned babies alive.”

  The below photo purporting to show damage to the outside of Netanyahu’s Caesarea residence (or possibly a building near it) has widely circulated online:

  One of Hezbollah’s kamikaze drones hit the wall of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s home in Caesarea. He wasn’t home. pic.twitter.com/DlQlWm35EA

  — Mike (@Doranimated) October 19, 2024

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  “We took him out,” the Israeli leader said. He added: “We’re continuing our battle with Iran’s other terrorist proxies.” The region is still bracing for a possible major Israeli attack on Iran, in retaliation for the ballistic missile attack launched on Israel by the Islamic Republic on October 1st.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/19/2024 – 14:55

• Leaked US Intelligence Documents Related To Israel's Attack Preparations On Iran Appear Online
  Leaked US Intelligence Documents Related To Israel’s Attack Preparations On Iran Appear Online

  A major leak of US classified documents has appeared online Saturday… or we should qualify alleged leaks of at least two TOP SECRET documents, with both marked NOFORN – which is among the highest classifications – given it indicates the specific intelligence cannot be shared with allied foreign intelligence agencies (with the exception of the “Five Eyes”).

  A breaking Axios report suggests their authenticity: “U.S. officials are extremely concerned about a potentially major security breach after two alleged U.S. intelligence documents about Israel’s preparations for an attack on Iran were published by a Telegram account affiliated with Iran,” Barak Ravid, who maintains close Israeli military and intelligence sources, writes.

  

  The documents include one which was reportedly authored by the Department of Defense National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), dubbed a “Visual Intelligence” report and distributed among the US intelligence community (IC) earlier this week, and dated to Oct.14-16.

  Neither the Pentagon nor NGA have offered official confirmation or comment, nor are they likely to. The documents first appeared on a pro-Iran Telegram channel. Axios has identified the channel name as “Middle East Spectator”. 

  The docs first appeared online Friday, but the Axios report has strongly pointed to the authenticity of leak.

  The region has remained on edge as Israel prepares to retaliate against Iran for its Oct.1st ballistic missile attack which saw some 200 projectiles pummel various sites in central Israel, some of which were said to be Iranian hypersonics. Axios has noted that “The leak could be an attempt to disrupt the Israeli operation.”

  A US official told Axios that the alleged leak is “extremely concerning” – again implying authenticity. The leak is also being described as potential very serious breach within the US intelligence community.

  Two of the documents have appeared on social media as follows:

  ⚡️ Hebrew media expresses frustration as ALLEGEDLY leaked American intelligence documents expose Israel’s preparations for an attack on Iran.

  Here are two of the “SUPPOSED” leaked documents. pic.twitter.com/xA8d9M04cB

  — Warfare Analysis (@warfareanalysis) October 19, 2024

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  Israeli media has also begun to spotlight the leak.

  Did Iran just hack and breach restricted US intelligence community servers?

  As for content of the documents, they contain information on Israel’s military transferring advanced munitions, possibly readying them for a planned attack on the Islamic Republic. One of the classified docs has the following header:

  Defense Forces Continue Key Munitions Preparations and Covert UAV Activity Almost Certainly for a Strike on Iran, 16 October 2024

  Axios has further commented on the top secret documents as follows:

  • It also states that according to U.S. signals intelligence, the Israeli Air Force conducted a large exercise this week involving intelligence planes and likely fighter jets trained for a possible attack against Iran.
  • The alleged intelligence report also detailed preparations in Israeli drone units for an attack against Iran.

  The Washington think tank community is outraged over the apparent major breach…

  Classified U.S. intelligence documents about #Israel‘s response to #Iran‘s regime’s attack on Oct. 1 found their way onto a pro-#IRGCterrorists Telegram channel. Whether by hacking or by leaks, this is a very serious incident.

  There better be a robust investigation. Recall…

  — Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky) October 19, 2024

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  The documents, if accurate, reveal the efforts by US intelligence to closely monitor the preparations of US ally Israel for an attack on Iran. In this scenario the US Geospatial-Intelligence Agency using its spy satellites to track movements at Israeli Air Force bases.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/19/2024 – 14:40

• 3 Americans Detained In Venezuela Over Alleged Anti-Government Plot
  3 Americans Detained In Venezuela Over Alleged Anti-Government Plot

  Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

  Three U.S. citizens are among five people detained by Venezuelan authorities over their alleged connection to a terrorist plot to destabilize the country, Venezuela’s interior minister announced on Thursday.

  

  Appearing on state television, Venezuelan Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello identified the U.S. citizens as David Guttenberg Guillaume, Gregory David Werber, and Jonathan Pagan Gonzalez.

  Cabello did not state when the five individuals were detained or what charges they faced but said Gonzalez was captured in the border state of Zulia.

  A Peruvian and a Bolivian citizen were also among those taken into custody alongside the three Americans, he said.

  All of the individuals speak “perfect” Spanish and traveled to the South American nation under the pretense of either a holiday or visiting a romantic partner, the interior minister said.

  “The detained foreigners speak Spanish perfectly, a necessary requirement for them to involve themselves in communities,” Cabello stated.

  Cabello provided no evidence linking the detained individuals to alleged terrorist activities in the country.

  Instead, he repeated previous claims that U.S. entities such as the CIA were behind the alleged terrorist plot – a claim that has been repeatedly refuted by the U.S. State Department.

  Election Results Under Scrutiny

  The detainments follow a clampdown on what Venezuela’s government has described as “anti-government activities” following the highly disputed July presidential election in which President Nicolas Maduro secured a third term in office.

  The election results sparked nationwide protests and have been heavily scrutinized by the United States and its allies, including Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the UK.

  The latest arrests bring the number of foreign detainees in Venezuela to at least 12 after three Americans, two Spaniards, and a Czech citizen were arrested last month.

  One of those detained was later identified as Wilbert Joseph Castañeda Gomez, whom Cabello described as a Navy SEAL who had served in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Colombia.

  Also in September, a fourth U.S. citizen was arrested for allegedly taking photos of electrical and oil installations and military units.

  Officials accused those individuals of traveling to the country to assassinate Maduro, overthrow the Venezuelan government, and kill several members of its leadership.

  The United States in September imposed sanctions on 16 individuals connected to Maduro, whom the Biden administration accused of obstructing voting during the July presidential election and carrying out human rights abuses.

  The Maduro administration has previously used Americans imprisoned in Venezuela to gain concessions from the U.S. government.

  Under a deal with the Biden administration in December last year, the Venezuelan government handed over 10 Americans and a fugitive wanted by the U.S. government to secure a presidential pardon for Columbian businessman Alex Saab, a close Maduro ally accused of a $350 million money laundering scheme.

  The Epoch Times contacted the State Department for comment but didn’t receive a reply by press time.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/19/2024 – 14:00

• "I'm With Elon": Gavin Newsom Unexpectedly Backs SpaceX In California Lawsuit Against Rogue Democrats 
  “I’m With Elon”: Gavin Newsom Unexpectedly Backs SpaceX In California Lawsuit Against Rogue Democrats 

  California’s far-left governor, Gavin Newsom, has unexpectedly backed Elon Musk and SpaceX. The private spaceflight company, which handles the majority of US space launches and leads the space race in this solar system, filed a lawsuit against a California state commission early last week, accusing it of political bias. The suit alleges that Democrats are hindering SpaceX launches off the Pacific coast. 

  “I’m with Elon,” Gov. Newsom said in an interview Thursday after campaigning for VP Kamala Harris in the swing state of North Carolina, which Politico quoted. He continued, “I didn’t like that.”

  

  On Tuesday, SpaceX filed a lawsuit in federal court in Los Angeles against the California Coastal Commission for alleged political discrimination. 

  The lawsuit stems from the California Coastal Commission’s (CCC) decision to halt SpaceX’s plans to increase the number of rocket launches from the Space Force base in Santa Barbara County. 

  SpaceX lawyers claimed that CCC made the decision based on political differences with Musk, a top supporter of Trump and anti-woke crusader on X, bashing Democrats for their nation-killing policies, such as open southern borders, lawless metro areas, out-of-control debt binge in Washington, and the list goes on and on. 

  The lawsuit asserts CCC’s 12 members “engaged in naked political discrimination” in last week’s decision over the Department of Defense (DOD) proposal to increase the number of SpaceX launches at Vandenberg from 36 to 50. 

  “Rarely has a government agency made so clear that it was exceeding its authorized mandate to punish a company for the political views and statements of its largest shareholder and CEO,” the lawsuit reads.

  Gov. Newsom added, “Look, I’m not helping the legal case … and you can’t bring up that explicit level of politics.” 

  Newsom sided with SpaceX in the lawsuit and pointed out that an independent agency should have been involved, politics aside, in the decision-making process for rocket launches at the base. 

  Newsom understands that, unlike many Democrats, SpaceX has become a critical part of national security rocket programs. In fact, Musk’s rocket company is quite literally America’s space program in terms of space launches and total mass catapulted into low Earth Orbit. SpaceX will even rescue Boeing’s stranded crew at the International Space Station early next year. 

  Using data from BryceTech, SpaceX launched 525 spacecraft into orbit in the first quarter, far outpacing China and Russia. 

  

  Musk is America’s rocket program: SpaceX launched about 429,125 kg of spacecraft upmass in the first quarter, significantly outpacing China’s rocket program (China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation), which launched a measly 29,426 kg. 

  

  Much of this is due to SpaceX’s Starlink deployment in LEO, as thousands of these satellites provide high-speed internet coverage to millions of customers worldwide. 

  

  Just last week: 

  • French Media Blames SpaceX For 2,500 Airbus Layoffs As Elon Musk Leads Rocket Race

  And this. 

  Mechazilla has caught the Super Heavy booster! pic.twitter.com/6R5YatSVJX

  — SpaceX (@SpaceX) October 13, 2024

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  Jonathan Turley penned in a note last week:

  The left will now kill jobs, cancel national security programs and gut the Constitution in its unrelenting campaign to get Musk. His very existence undermines the power of the anti-free speech movement. In a culture of groupthink, Musk is viewed as a type of free-thought contagion that must be eliminated.

  If Democrats are indeed trying to sabotage America’s space program by weaponizing the government to restrict Musk and slow down rocket launches, it raises serious national security concerns. A deeper conversation must be had about whether this radical far-left party is being influenced by foreign adversaries with competing space programs—like China. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/19/2024 – 13:25

• Kamala's "Opportunity Agenda" Will Be Disastrous For African Americans
  Kamala’s “Opportunity Agenda” Will Be Disastrous For African Americans

  Via SchiffGold.com,

  With Kamala Harris rapidly fading in polls among African-Americans, her campaign just released a desperate “Opportunity Agenda” for black men outlining policies that will have disastrous economic consequences. Ironically, the consequences of “forgivable loans” are likely to be the most damaging to the very same groups that she’s claiming to help.

  

  A “forgivable loan” is another way of saying “free money.” Printing $20,000 and handing it out to black entrepreneurs is only going to push prices up for the things those entrepreneurs need. Meanwhile, banks that get to issue the loans do so with no risk, because it’s all backed by the Full Faith and Credit of you, the American taxpayer. 

  The idea is to get “mission-driven lenders” to issue the loans. This slathers a gloppy layer of do-gooderism over the fact that, most likely, these loans will be issued by the usual State-favored megabanks. After all, they all have “Mission Statements,” so who’s to argue whether they’re “Mission-Driven” or not? They’re all part of a criminal banking cartel that enjoys an incredibly privileged position in terms of being inextricable from the US political structure, first in line at the low interest rate and QE money printer. 

  Meanwhile, megabanks like Wells Fargo (owned by BlackRock, Fidelity, and Vanguard) have stolen far more houses and cars than any street thief ever could, preyed on Native Americans, opened millions of fraudulent accounts, violated international sanctions, aided money laundering, along with other offenses.

  Having some guaranteed loans on the books also incentivizes malinvestment, encouraging banks to dump more money into risky bets in other areas. When you get some free money, you want to play with it. It’s just human nature.

  Forgivable loans offered to a specific ethnic group even incentivizes discrimination against them.

  If loan officers know that African-Americans are getting forgivable loans courtesy of the federal government, they’re more likely to charge higher interest rates even to black entrepreneurs whose loans aren’t guaranteed.

  Meanwhile, the Fed’s inflationary policies cause the most pain to the lowest earners and the middle class. 

  While bursts of “economic stimulus” like those of the 2008 and 2020 crises juiced the economy in the short or medium-term, we’re feeling the effects today in the form of drastically higher prices and a middle class that continues to vanish.

  Federal Reserve Total Assets (Less Eliminations from Consolidation)

  

  It all comes down to less competition in the marketplace, which inevitably leads to higher prices. No matter the context, nature or finance, humans respond to incentives, and markets are no different. That’s why no central authority can overcome the natural will of the market, no matter how hard it tries. In the long run, nature always wins.

  Of course, the Harris campaign’s “proposal”  is a campaign season prop to buy votes, and wouldn’t be enforceable without an act of Congress. But it’s still a notable sign that the campaign is worried that being a black woman might not be enough for Harris to get back the black vote. While it favored Biden, African-American support faded continuously throughout the course of his administration. For his part, Trump is promising a utopia of his own, and is a fan of the money printer as long as he gets credit, even making a point to ensure his name would appear on the inflationary Covid stimulus checks. As Peter Schiff recently said on Kai Hoffman’s Soar Financially, “Trump is promising immediate results—positive, no pain, just gain.” But inflation is already baked into the cake.

  “We have, you know, inflation that masquerades as growth…I think the economy is very weak, that’s why the Fed is cutting rates, and they’re going to cut them even more, and I think they’re going to go back to QE.”

  Incumbent administrations love when the Fed juices the economy for them, since they can take the credit.

  But Kamala’s campaign season pandering to “help” African American entrepreneurs is going to create more of the inflation and discrimination that holds back disadvantaged groups in the first place.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/19/2024 – 12:50

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• America's National Security Is Far Worse Off Than Four Years Ago
  America’s National Security Is Far Worse Off Than Four Years Ago

  Authored by James E. Fanell and Bradley A. Thayer via American Greatness,

  Ronald Reagan’s query to the American people in his October 28, 1980, debate with incumbent President Jimmy Carter was so simple and so devastating that it is still employed today: “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” While most Americans are far worse off today than they were four years ago, with rising prices, inflation, a hollow economy, and unchecked immigration, so too are the U.S., its allies, and its partner’s national security interests, which are far worse off than they were four years ago.

  

  Four years ago, there was stability in Europe, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific. Now Europe’s “long peace,” that is, no major war in Europe since 1945, has been shattered by Russia’s horrific invasion of Ukraine. This war has resulted in the deaths of over one million humans and the displacement of millions more. The Middle East is roiling with conflict due to Hamas’ October 7, 2023, unprovoked attack on Israel and its consequences—the Iranian-backed Houthis interdiction of international shipping in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, the attacks from Hezbollah in Lebanon and ultimately unprecedented attacks from Iran against Israel with drones and missiles. The Indo-Pacific is rife with unrest principally due to the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) hyper-aggression against key U.S. allies and partners like India, Japan, the Philippines, and Taiwan, and against the American people themselves.

  The cause of this instability is the Biden-Harris administration’s ideological obsession to “manage America’s decline” and the subsequent policies they adopted in the last almost four years. The Biden-Harris administration failed to deter the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This war is a humanitarian nightmare for all concerned; it is a stalemated conventional conflict, evincing an intensity of combat not seen in Europe since 1945. The war also entails the risk of nuclear escalation, the tremendous cost of which the U.S. and its NATO allies would not escape. In addition, this administration has fundamentally failed to support Israel by not holding Iran to account—even worse by providing Tehran the funding to expand their terrorism against Americans.

  However, in the pantheon of Biden’s failures, it is towards the PRC that the Biden administration has made its greatest foreign policy fiascos. The Biden-Harris administration has continued the failed “Engagement” policies with the PRC that have aided the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) at a time of great peril. The Biden-Harris administration ignores the existential nature of the CCP threat because it seeks to continue the Engagement school of thought through what we call the Biden-Harris administration’s “neo-Engagement” policy.

  With the exception of the Trump presidency, Engagement has been the dominant U.S. approach to the PRC since Bill Clinton. It asserts that the PRC is not an existential threat to the U.S. Far from it—the Engagement school contends the Sino-American relationship should be cooperative. Any troubles may be addressed by more cooperation with the PRC and accommodation of the interests of the CCP to sustain that cooperation. In essence, the Engagers are appeasers. Unfortunately, their arguments are ubiquitous and dominate U.S. foreign policy toward the PRC. Engagement dominates Wall Street, foundations, think tanks, universities, media, Silicon Valley, K Street, major law firms, and government. Even after the fiasco of allowing a PRC intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance balloon to fly over the entirety of America and the conga line of Biden-Harris cabinet officials traveling to Beijing to kowtow before Xi Jinping, the nadir was the November 2023 meeting between Biden and Xi near San Francisco. Beyond the obsession by Biden-Harris to resume military-to-military exchanges despite the People’s Liberation Army’s increased threatening behavior, 400 of America’s richest business leaders attended a dinner with the PRC’s dictator—Xi Jinping. These “titans” of America’s economy gave the CCP dictator two standing ovations while Xi explained his vision of tyranny—on American soil—and how the American business elite could help him sustain it.

  The failed Biden-Harris neo-Engagement policies have allowed the CCP to escape the costs of its many decades of misrule but also provided the window for the CCP’s hyper-aggression over the last four years. Since assuming office, the Biden-Harris administration has overseen and done nothing as the PRC built over 300 nuclear Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM) silos in central and western China, upgraded the submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) aboard their sea-based leg of their triad, expanded their ballistic missile submarine production facilities, and introduced a new nuclear bomber, the H-20. This aircraft very closely resembles the B-2 stealth bomber.  Additionally, the Biden-Harris regime has sat by as PLA Air Force H-6 bombers have for the first time flown nuclear bomber profiles with their Russian Long Range Aviation counterparts into the Alaskan Air Defense Identification zone.

  By every metric, the CCP is flexing its strategic muscles by expanding its nuclear arsenal and strategic reach.  The PRC continues to agress relentlessly against U.S. national security interests. While the pace of their aggression is quickening, the Biden-Harris administration is cutting the size of the Department of Defense. For example, Biden-Harris continues to decommission more warships than it builds, as demonstrated by their Fiscal Year 2025 budget that procures just six warships, the lowest number of any budget submission since 2006.

  This degradation of America’s maritime power is especially pernicious as the situation in the South China Sea, near Scarborough Shoal or Sabina Shoal, is dramatically worsening. Likewise, the PLA is increasing its pressure on Taiwan through unceasing operations to prepare for an invasion. In the past month, the PLAAF violated Japanese territorial waters for the first time ever. Moreover, the PLAN and Russian Navy sailed into the Gulf of Alaska, while it has been confirmed that PLA is supplying Russia with military weapons to aid Moscow in its war against Kyiv. There are also credible reports, including from the South Korean Minister of Defense, that the North Koreans are directly aiding the Russian war effort.

  In his famous debate with Carter, Reagan also asked Americans if they believed America was as respected and whether America was as strong as four years ago. Once again, the answer to that question today is no. America was far more respected by its foes and was stronger four years ago than today. America was seen by its key allies in Europe, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific as a far better, more reliable, and more confident ally than today. The result is that a Harris presidency would continue these neo-Engagement policies to embolden enemies and continue to punish allies and partners. Only a Trump presidency will end failed policies of neo-Engagement and return the U.S. to the Reaganesque certainty of the previous Cold War that “the U.S. wins, the CCP loses.”

  ***

  James E. Fanell and Bradley A. Thayer are authors of Embracing Communist China: America’s Greatest Strategic Failure. The views expressed are their own.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/18/2024 – 23:25

• Which College Degrees Have The Best Return On Investment?
  Which College Degrees Have The Best Return On Investment?

  Career prospects, and especially expected lifetime salaries, can be a strong motivator or deterrent in pursuing certain college degrees.

  Not all degrees guarantee higher lifetime earnings compared to entering the workforce after high school without a degree – as some degrees may end up costing more than their financial benefits.

  This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Kayla Zhu, shows the average return on investment of a degree in the U.S., based on analysis from CollegeNPV of data from the U.S. Department of Education and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  

  The return on investment of a degree is the expected lifetime value of the degree (net of debt) compared to entering the workforce after high school.

  STEM Degrees Have The Best Bang For Their Buck

  Below, we show the average return on investment of various degrees in the U.S.

  Field of Study	Average return on investment
  Engineering	$570,616
  Computer and Information Sciences	$477,229
  Mathematics	$340,875
  Engineering Technicians	$311,141
  Business	$205,191
  Architecture	$196,711
  Nursing and Health Professions	$194,756
  Physics, Chemistry and Geology	$168,822
  Social Sciences	$118,454
  Interdisciplinary Studies	$69,656
  Biology	$63,913
  Agriculture	$59,556
  Area, Ethnic, Cultural, Gender and Group Studies	$42,959
  Legal Studies	$38,999
  Natural Resources and Conservation	$28,985
  Communication and Journalism	$28,654
  Homeland Security, Law Enforcement and Firefighting	$27,284
  Foreign Languages	$25,750
  Public Administration and Social Services	$7,787
  Philosophy and Religious Studies	$6,011
  History	$4,938
  Fitness, Parks and Recreation	-$1,078
  Liberal Arts and General Studies	-$13,337
  Psychology	-$15,644
  Education	-$20,075
  Family and Human Sciences	-$24,540
  Communications Technologies	-$28,911
  English Language	-$39,057
  Theology	-$91,749
  Visual and Performing Arts	-$104,015

  Engineering, computer and information sciences, mathematics, and engineering technician degrees are the most valuable degrees in the U.S. when looking at expected lifetime income minus debt compared to working right after high school without a degree.

  As for specific programs, Harvard University’s computer science degree ranks first for ROI, according to CollegeNPV.

  Graduates of this program can expect an ROI of over $4 million in their lifetime, with $256,539 in median income and $14,000 in median debt.

  On the other end, humanities degrees like visual and performing arts, theology, and English are among the least valuable degrees when looking at lifetime earnings.

  With a negative ROI of about $39,000, English language programs have also experienced the greatest decrease in graduates, with 32% fewer students completing these programs compared to 10 years prior.

  To learn more about some of the top universities in the U.S., check out this graphic that shows which universities produce the most startup founders.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/18/2024 – 23:00

• Baby Bust Will Soon Reshape Public Schools
  Baby Bust Will Soon Reshape Public Schools

  Authored by Jay Greene via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The most powerful force shaping the future of education is the sharp decline in babies being born in the United States and worldwide. As Americans have fewer children, and fewer children immigrate from abroad, the school-age population will decline dramatically over the next few decades.

  

  The United States has experienced a baby bust once before in the wake of the baby boom in the 1970s and 1980s, which gives us some idea of what to expect. But unlike the previous baby bust, which was a temporary artifact of the boomers ageing out of school, the upcoming decline in school-age population has no end in sight.

  We are about to experience a baby bust on steroids. Public school enrollments reached a peak of 50.8 million in 2019 and are projected to drop below 47 million by 2030. But that’s just the start. This year U.S. fertility rates hit an all-time low. Since the smaller number of children born this year will barely be entering school by 2030, the steep decline in school enrollments will accelerate after 2030.

  In 20 states, public school enrollments are projected to fall by more than 10 percent by 2031. Almost all of these states with larger enrollment declines are blue states, with Hawaii, California, New Mexico, and New York leading with drops between 19 and 21 percent.

  During the previous baby bust, declining school populations forced districts to close schools and layoff teachers. Job insecurity among teachers caused them to flock to teachers’ unions for protection, transforming them from local organizations concentrated in a few big cities into national political powerhouses.

  As the share of the population with children in school declined in the 1970s, property tax revolts arose across the country, most notably with Proposition 13 in California in 1978. With access to local property taxes becoming more constrained, school districts turned to the state and federal governments for funds. The teachers’ unions were able to use their increasing membership and political power to get President Carter to create the Department of Education in 1980, gaining an institutional ally in advocating for increased federal funding.

  This shift from local property tax to state and federal sources of school funding was successful in reducing the extent of school closures and teacher layoffs, but it made schools more financially vulnerable to future reductions in enrollment. Unlike local property tax, state and federal money is typically allocated to districts on a per pupil basis. If the number of pupils drops, funding is cut by a commensurate amount.

  As school enrollments start to plummet, so will their funding. The various tricks that districts have employed in the past to compensate financially are less available to rescue them. Districts might hope that state governments could significantly increase per pupil funding levels to offset enrollment drops, but state budgets are already stretched thin.

  This is especially true as the increasing share of the population over the age of 65 places more demands on states to fund healthcare. Given that the number of voters directly benefiting from government-funded healthcare far exceeds those benefiting from government-funded schools, districts should expect little financial relief from state budgets.

  The same dynamics will play out at the federal level. School districts might hope that federal spending could bail them out and could point to the fact that, unlike state budgets, the feds need not balance their budgets. But the inflationary surge following the pandemic impressed upon policymakers that even the federal government has limits on what it can spend. And with healthcare, crumbling infrastructure, and a host of other issues all in line for federal bailouts ahead of education, districts should moderate their expectations for financial relief from the federal government.

  With a larger and more sustained drop in enrollments coming and with less opportunity for financial rescue, the school closings and teacher layoffs are likely to be much larger than they were in the 1970s and 1980s. Education colleges will lose even more enrollment than they already have, and many will have to close their doors. Teachers may turn once again to the unions for protection. But unions cannot expand their geographic scope and will experience a drop in membership as the number of teachers declines, resulting in diminished political power.

  The birth dearth will also make adopting important reforms of the education system more challenging in some ways. As we clearly saw in Arizona, expanding school choice is made more politically palatable when state governments are flush with cash and when public schools are overcrowded with growing enrollments.

  When schools are filled with students, and districts are at least partially held harmless from the loss of funds as enrollment shifts to private schools, the public school establishment doesn’t fight quite as hard to block new competition from private school choice. Going forward, passing new school choice programs will become more difficult as districts become more desperate to keep every student and every dollar those students generate.

  Plummeting fertility rates, however, might provide a new argument for states to adopt choice programs. With fewer people being born, many states may experience shortages of labor, especially outside of the sunbelt where populations are already fleeing. Empowering parents to have more options and control over the education of their children may give states a competitive advantage in attracting or retaining those families and their labor.

  This competitive pressure to adopt choice programs is becoming stronger as a critical mass of states have already enacted universal private school choice programs in which every child in the state is eligible to direct government funds or subsidies to their preferred educational setting. Once Texas adopts universal school choice, which appears likely to occur next year, almost 40 percent of all students in the country will be eligible for private school choice.

  With many red states still gaining population aboard the choice bandwagon, it will be harder for other states to resist adopting similar universal choice programs. Georgia, Idaho, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Wyoming may find it difficult to explain to their voters why they won’t do what Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Texas, and Utah have already done. And once almost 20 red states have embraced universal school choice, purple and blue states will feel enormous pressure to do the same or face even larger migrations of families and labor force from their states to others that do empower families with options for educating their children.

  In addition, because private choice programs cost significantly less per pupil than do traditional public schools, state policymakers will find the financial savings very attractive. It will allow them to cover those rising healthcare costs and somewhat increase the per pupil funding for students who remain in public schools.

  As the economic historian William Fischel observed in his book “Making the Grade,” the ability of American families to move shaped the initial development of the country’s education system. Educational opportunities were an attractive amenity that lured families to relocate to new communities and increase that area’s tax base.

  That was why the Northwest Ordinance of 1787 set aside a parcel of land in each block for development as an endowment for building a local school, enticing families to move West and settle the Northwest Territory. Similarly, local communities added secondary education to their school districts to complete more effectively in luring families to move to their area.

  As Fischel explains it, Tiebout choice, or the competitive market of local governments, produced the education system we now have. But existing arrangements are not set in stone and will continue to be reshaped by competition among local governments. Tiebout choice will soon lead policymakers to offer universal private school choice to attract families and their labor to their state. As birth rates plummet, the competition for that labor will grow more intense, increasing the appeal of adopting policies that empower families with educational options.

  From the American Institute for Economic Education (AIER)

  Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/18/2024 – 22:35

• Israel Already Requesting A Second THAAD Missile Defense Battery From US
  Israel Already Requesting A Second THAAD Missile Defense Battery From US

  It was only within the past few days that Israeli leaders confirmed a US-supplied THAAD anti-ballistic missile system has become operational on the ground in Israel. This marked a major development which has effectively put American troops directly in harm’s way at a moment Israel is still readying to retaliate against Iran for the Oct.1st ballistic missile attack.

  But just after the arrival of the first THAAD (or Terminal High Altitude Area Defense), the Israeli government is already requesting that a second one be deployed from the US, according to Israel’s Channel 12 on Friday.

  

  Times of Israel notes that “Each battery consists of six truck-mounted launchers, 48 interceptors, radio and radar equipment, and requires 95 soldiers to operate.”

  Already some 100 American soldiers are on the ground manning the first THAAD, but a second battery would bring that total to around 200 US soldiers deployed in Israel. There’s as yet been no indication that the Pentagon plans to ship a second battery.

  Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh on Tuesday described that “An advance team of military personnel and some of the initial components needed to operate the missile battery arrived in Israel yesterday [Monday], with additional personnel and components scheduled to arrive in the coming days with a goal of making the THAAD fully capable in the near future.”

  “This decision was made as part of the broader adjustments the U.S. military has made in recent months to support the defense of Israel and protect Americans from attacks by Iran and Iranian-aligned militias,” she continued.

  The White House says it has been briefed by the Netanyahu government on what targets in Iran are expected to be hit, as Israel’s retaliation remains imminent. But it seems Tel Aviv is already begging for more and more equipment and missiles from the Pentagon.

  “Israel faces a looming shortage of interceptor missiles as it shores up air defenses to protect the country from attacks by Iran and its proxies, according to industry executives, former military officials and analysts,” FT wrote this week.

  “The US is racing to help close gaps in Israel’s protective shield, announcing on Sunday the deployment of a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) antimissile battery, ahead of an expected retaliatory strike from Israel on Iran that risks further regional escalation.”

  Israel competing with Zelensky in the “gimme gimme gimme” category. Why can’t we use the missile defense weapons that WE paid for to protect OUR country? https://t.co/aHKdL1ocdY

  — Daniel McAdams (@DanielLMcAdams) October 18, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  One analyst and former US senior defense official, Dana Stroul, was cited in the same report as saying that “Israel’s munitions issue is serious.” Stroul, a pro-Israel and anti-Iran hawk, has described that “If Iran responds to an Israel attack [with a massive air strike campaign], and Hizbollah joins in too, Israel air defenses will be stretched.”

  Israel is likely to keep asking for more, and despite billions of dollars already pledged – and based on prior patterns – Washington is likely to oblige… just as it’s been doing for the constant similar requests out of Ukraine.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/18/2024 – 22:10

• Why Women Should Vote For Trump
  Why Women Should Vote For Trump

  Authored by Tiffany Marie Brannon via RealClearPolicy,

  Dear fellow women, You are being played…

  

  And falling for this particular confidence scheme won’t just cost you, it’ll cost all of us. 

  I’m an affluent 30-something divorced, white, childless, American woman with multiple postgraduate degrees, and a busy career. I’ve lived abroad in several metropolitan cities and I own my home. According to every single statistic, I should be a J.D. Vance-loathing single cat lady. 

  I should also really hate Donald Trump. But I don’t. 

  Lest we forget, the presidency is not a popularity contest. There seems to be some confusion on that front. You aren’t casting a ballot for Prom Queen, you’re voting for the leader of the free world. It’s why that little thing called the Electoral College exists. 

  I’ve heard other women say they’re voting for Vice President Kamala Harris because “she’s more iconic” than Trump. My response: what about inflation, foreign or domestic policy, war, immigration, education, human trafficking, or any other serious issue? 

  The truth is, if you actually voted for real pro-women policies, you’d vote for Trump. 

  And the Left knows this. 

  That’s why the Democratic Party has spent untold millions making Abortion the #1 issue for women. White women alone make up 40% of the electoral vote and 89 million American women total are registered to vote, making us the largest voting bloc in the nation. In 2020, swing states like Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania saw women vote at record rates, with Biden winning 57% of female voters.

  We hold serious power. Hence why Democrats want to convince women that the unrestricted right to abortion is more important than the right to vote, freedom of speech, or any other right you can think of. Make abortion equalitarian with being female and tell them they are physically under attack by the GOP. Oh, and also by the Supreme Court. We can’t forget them. Democrats have done such a good job with this indoctrination that, in a recent viral video, young women said they would rather have the right to an abortion over the right to vote. What are they teaching girls in schools these days?

  Yet even if you’re a passionately pro-choice voter, it’s silly to consider abortion as the critical issue at stake in this election. After all, Trump has already said he doesn’t favor a national abortion ban and that he would veto any such bill. According to KFF, only 14% of American women – or 7% of the American population – have had an abortion at some point in their life, 21% being Black, 19% Hispanic, and 11% White women. 

  In contrast, 100% of Americans – women included – have to buy food, pay medical bills, and want to know their tax dollars are going to help them in an emergency. Just ask the victims of Hurricane Helene as they were offered a measly $750 after FEMA gave billions of U.S. taxpayer dollars away to noncitizens and foreign countries under the Biden Harris Administration.

  We’ve been inundated with the message that voting for an objectively unpopular and recognized failure of a Vice President because she loves abortion, possesses a female reproductive system, and is of minority ethnicity is more important than anything else that matters. 

  Ladies – don’t be so easily fooled. 

  Trump’s record speaks for itself and is deserving of closer attention by female voters. The former president approved the largest paid parental leave program in history, guaranteeing 12 weeks of paid leave. He directed more than $200 million per year to technology education grants for women and programs that encouraged STEM careers. He founded the Women’s Global Development and Prosperity Initiative, the first-ever government program focused on advancing women’s “full and free participation” in the global economy. Trump also shone a spotlight on under-the-radar domestic women’s issues, establishing a task force for missing and murdered Native American women. Under the Trump administration, women’s unemployment reached the lowest level in 67 years and women received over 70% of new jobs.

  Last I checked, those policies affect far more than 14% of the female population. 

  Even Trump recognizes this. He recently observed, “Women want to have safety. They want to have a strong military. They want to have a strong police force… They want to be in their house and they want to be safe. … I hope they like my personality… But to me, it wouldn’t be very important, the personality.”

  He’s right. This is not a personality contest. It’s not about which candidate is more “iconic.” It is our duty as citizens to vote for the best policies, laws, and chances for us and our loved ones to thrive for years to come. Women voters are no exception to this rule.

  So, from one would-be single cat lady to a nation of others, consider this: voting for the rich white man in this election doesn’t make you evil. 

  It makes you wise. 

  Tiffany Marie Brannon is a political strategist and the writer and host of the TMB Problems podcast.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/18/2024 – 21:45

• Communism Failure: Cuba Paralyzed By Massive Power Blackout 
  Communism Failure: Cuba Paralyzed By Massive Power Blackout 

  In a post on X, Cuba’s Ministry of Mines and Energy announced that the nation’s largest power plant has been “completely disconnected,” sparking widespread blackouts across the island. While unsurprising for the Communist-run island nation in the northern Caribbean Sea, it’s a stark warning for all Americans about how Kamala Harris’ proposed Communist policies could rapidly push the US towards third-world conditions if elected next month. We’re halfway there with ten-plus million unvetted illegal aliens roaming America’s city streets.

  “Following the unexpected departure of the Antonio Guiteras CTE, the National Electricity System was completely disconnected at 11 a.m. today. The Unión Eléctrica is working on its restoration,” the Ministry of Mines and Energy wrote on X around 1235 ET. 

  

  Bloomberg noted that hours before the unexpected failure at the 330-megawatt capacity CTE Antonio Guiteras power plant, the Communist government revealed that it would “paralyze” top industries and divert power for residential customers. 

  “But the frequency and duration of blackouts has been on the rise, as Cuba’s aging power generators break down and the cash-strapped government struggles to import enough fuel,” the media outlet noted. 

  Cybersecurity firm Cloudflare showed that internet activity on the island has also plunged due to power outages. 

  

  Cuba’s communist regime is undoubtedly at its weakest point in decades. Constant power blackouts and food shortages are merely signs that centrally planned economies don’t function efficiently.  

  Yet, while Cuba implodes, Kamala Harris has pitched American voters that her proposed Communist-style price control strategy will make them better off if she is elected. 

  

  Sorry Democrats. Americans don’t want Chinese-style Communism. Innovation and freedom are okay with them. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/18/2024 – 21:20

• 5 Key Exercises To Keep Your 40s From Feeling Like Middle Age
  5 Key Exercises To Keep Your 40s From Feeling Like Middle Age

  Authored by Kevin Shelley via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Welcome to middle age. Sounds strange, doesn’t it? People in their 40s are still quite young, in their prime working years, and possess the blush of youth that society cherishes.

  

  Your 40s are often a time of peaks: Your career history may be established, your family may be maturing, and you are still full of energy and vitality. However, you aren’t officially “young” anymore. The advancement into your middle ages introduces you to a time when your muscles become harder to maintain without dedicated exercise and when sedentary behavior comes at a higher price.

  But don’t let this make you feel old, whippersnapper, because you aren’t. Besides, you can continue to stay strong and energetic with just a little exercise, and I’ve provided some great ones for you to get started.

  The key here is maintaining muscle mass and flexibility to counteract the beginning of muscle decline and decreasing joint mobility. At this stage in life, managing stress and finding time to maintain healthy habits amid career and family responsibilities is crucial. You’ll be pleasantly surprised at how little time it can take.

  I suggest establishing a workout routine with your family and friends to increase socialization and maximize exercise consistency. It may also be helpful to consult your physician to ensure that these exercises are right for you.

  5 Key Exercises for Your 40s

  1. Plank

  The plank is an excellent, classic core strengthening exercise that can be performed nearly anywhere. It’s challenging at first, but progress comes quickly.

  Step 1: Assume a prone position on the floor, lying with your chest and stomach downward. Rise onto your elbows while keeping your upper arms straight and at shoulder-width, palms on the floor, head up and facing forward, and your back straight (a straight back is critical).

  Step 2: Hold this position for as long as you can, up to 1 minute.

  Step 3: Try doing 3 sets for 1 minute each, taking 1 minute of rest between each set. Perform 3 rounds of plank , which counts as 3 sets.

  Planks are an excellent exercise on their own but are even better paired with the other exercises.

  Modification: You can make planks easier by bringing your forearms or knees to the floor.

  

  2. Pushups

  Pushups are renowned for their ability to provide an excellent workout in a simple, controlled movement.

  Step 1: Start on the floor with your feet together, palms flat on the floor, and arms fully extended. This is the classic starting position for pushups.

  Step 2: Lower your body by bending your elbows until you’re almost touching the floor. Keep your back and legs straight as you lower yourself.

  Step 3: Push yourself back up to the starting position. This counts as 1 repetition. Aim for 3 sets of 10 repetitions, making adjustments as needed.

  Modification: To make this exercise easier, you can keep your knees on the floor and limit how far you bend your elbows and lower your body.

  

  3. Weighted Squat

  Weighted squats target the legs and gluteal muscles and take the standard bodyweight squat up a notch in both difficulty and benefit.

  Step 1: Stand with your arms by your sides and your feet approximately body-width apart. Hold 1 to 2 pounds of weight in each hand. Canned goods work well in this role, but feel free to add weight.

  Step 2: Start by slowly squatting down until your knees are bent at a 90-degree angle, then slowly return to standing. Take one to two seconds to move in both directions—don’t rush. As you squat, bring your arms from your sides straight out. This helps with balance and adds intensity. While squatting, push your hips back to prevent your knees from moving past your toes. This helps protect your knees from unnecessary strain and ensures proper alignment.

  Step 3: Squatting and rising counts as 1 repetition. Try to perform 3 sets of 12 repetitions.

  Modification: If squatting to 90 degrees or rising from it is too much, just do what you can at first.

  

  Read the rest here…

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/18/2024 – 20:55

• China's Coal Production Surged in September
  China’s Coal Production Surged in September

  By Irina Slav of OilPrice.com

  Coal production in China rose by 4.4% in the year last month to a total 414.46 million tons, government data showed.

  

  The production rate also rose on the month: the August total stood at 396.55 million tons.

  The increase followed the end of safety inspections in coal-producing regions and the return of coal-to-chemicals capacity to normal operation after maintenance, Reuters reported.

  “Following the end of maintenance on some coal-based methanol, urea, PVC and other chemical capacity, the capacity utilisation rate has gradually increased,” Reuters quoted analysts with Galaxy Futures, a China-based financial services firm, as saying.

  Coal production over the first nine months of the year, however, only increased marginally, by 0.6%, to a total of 3.48 billion tons. The output was no doubt affected by safety probes that resulted in substantial reduction in accidents and deaths in coal mines.

  Demand for coal was coming mostly from the power generation sector, where coal continues to be king, and heavy industry. Coal-power generation in China rose by 8.9% in September on an annual basis, reaching 545.1 billion kWh, the state statistics agency said.

  China’s coal imports also rose in September, to a total of 47.59 million metric tons of coal, a 13% increase from September 2023. The increase in imports was largely driven by a favorable arbitrage between foreign and domestic supply.

  The Asian benchmark of coal prices, at Newcastle in Australia, were falling for most of last month. The lowest level in September, at $136.46 per metric ton on September 23, was a 7% decline from the August high of $147.13 per ton, according to Reuters estimates.

  Coal accounts for about 60% of China’s generation, despite a surge in hydropower earlier this year after abundant rainfall, which reduced the share of coal in the country’s energy mix. Natural gas, in contrast, accounts for less than 10% of generation.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/18/2024 – 20:30

• The Collapse Of Kamala Harris
  The Collapse Of Kamala Harris

  Authored by Josh Hammer via American Greatness,

  On July 26, in the aftermath of the Democratic Party’s ruthless midsummer coup of their own democratically elected presidential nominee, this column predicted that the elevation of dimwitted cackler-in-chief Kamala Harris to the party’s presidential slot would “spectacularly backfire.” More specifically, I wrote: “Practically, the path to winning 270 Electoral College votes still runs through the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. It is frankly bizarre for Democrats to swap out the man who talks ceaselessly about his hardscrabble Scranton upbringing for a Californian who boasts the most left-wing voting record of any presidential nominee in modern history.”

  

  I’m feeling pretty good these days about that prognosis.

  Harris recently campaigned in Erie, Pennsylvania—a crucial regional hub in this election cycle’s most important battleground state. Conspicuously absent from that snoozefest was incumbent Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.). Harris tried to pass off the snub as a nothingburger, suggesting that Casey was doing the more important work of knocking on doors and getting out the vote. This doesn’t pass the laugh test. Facing a spirited challenge from Republican hopeful Dave McCormick, Casey has clearly concluded that Harris’ immense Bay Area lefty baggage—her history of endorsing the Green New Deal, a national fracking ban, and crippling electric vehicle mandates—is an electoral albatross around his neck.

  It’s tough to blame Casey. Other vulnerable Senate Democratic incumbents, such as Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Jon Tester (D-Mont.), reached the same conclusion a while ago. Such a conclusion makes a great deal of sense: A recent Marist national general election poll, for instance, shows Trump up a whopping 10 points on Harris with registered independents. If that margin ends up being anywhere near accurate, it is extraordinarily difficult to see a scenario in which Trump loses.

  Harris has recently been engaging in what the psychology profession calls “projection,” ludicrously criticizing Donald Trump for avoiding the media when it was actually Harris who infamously avoided a single one-on-one sit-down interview for weeks on end following the Biden coup. In reality, Trump recently sat down for two interviews with Time magazine, whose owner is a vocal Harris donor. Harris declined a Time interview nonetheless. Prior to this week’s desperate, last-second change of course, which saw her sit down with Fox News’s Bret Baier, Harris had only deigned to sit down with the most obsequious media imaginable.

  One can only wonder how bad the Harris-Walz internal polling must be to impel her to ditch the far-left “Call Her Daddy” podcast and the friendly ladies of “The View” for the considerably more mainstream Baier. Desperate times sure call for desperate measures. Democrats routinely blast Republicans as misogynistic, but their own chronic misandry is so bad that Kamala is apparently considering a sit-down with podcast king Joe Rogan, whose own brand of woke-skeptical irreverence sharply clashes with Harris’ identity politics obsessions and overt race-based pandering. The tables sure have turned. Will the last person hanging around Harris-Walz campaign headquarters please turn off the lights?

  Snark aside, this race isn’t over yet. But the Harris-Walz camp cannot possibly be feeling too good right now, either.

  Democrats have no one to blame but themselves for their predicament. Throughout this interminable campaign season, they have studiously avoided substantive discussion of the four issues that Americans consistently tell pollsters are most important to them this cycle: the economy, inflation, immigration, and crime. Instead, they have repeatedly attempted to shift the electoral terrain back to the few issues that poll in their favor: namely, abortion and the Jan. 6 jamboree at the Capitol. In this, they have completely failed. The American people still care above all about the same four basic quality-of-life issues that they have cared the most about for years now. It is Democrats’ fault that they are so woefully out of touch with the voters’ sentiments on those issues and that the Biden-Harris administration’s track record polls as poorly as it does.

  Perhaps if the Harris-Walz ticket does go down in flames, Democrats will pause and take a long, hard look in the mirror. Perhaps they will recognize that promising late-term abortion is a peculiar way to pander to women, that pledging mass amnesty for illegal aliens is a counterproductive way to pander to Hispanics, and that dangling marijuana legalization is an outright offensive way to pander to Blacks. Perhaps. But if history is any indication, they probably won’t.

  ***

  To find out more about Josh Hammer and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/18/2024 – 20:05

• For Harris, Pro-Choice Does Not Include Cars And Appliances
  For Harris, Pro-Choice Does Not Include Cars And Appliances

  Authored by Kenin M. Spivak via RealClearWire,

  Kamala Harris wants to deprive Americans of the right to choose cars and household appliances. When she claims, as she did at a rally last week in Michigan, that “I will never tell you what kind of car you have to drive” she is guilty of two of the Democrats’ most reviled offenses, malinformation (failure to contextualize a statement) and misinformation (lying).

  

  Combating climate by changing infrastructure, consumer goods, and lifestyle is one of Harris’s core values. As recently as this year, the Biden-Harris administration continued to issue regulations and battle in court for the right to reduce consumer options for automobiles and home appliances. Harris favors consumers having choices, just so long as those choices are limited to those she pre-approves.

  Then Senator Harris co-sponsored the Senate version of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’ Green New Deal. Harris believed that mandating priorities and choices to limit emissions was so important that she advocated ending the filibuster to do so. Harris also co-sponsored the Zero Admissions Vehicles Act to require that all cars be EVs, or otherwise zero-emissions, by 2040. When she ran for president in 2019, she issued a plan to phase out new gas-powered cars even sooner – by 2035.

  In April 2023, the Biden-Harris administration proposed rules that would ensure that EVs accounted for about 67 percent of all new car sales by 2032 (just eight years from now). After objections from nearly every sector and region of the country, the EPA issued final rules on March 20 of this year that require from 31 percent to 44 percent of new cars, SUVs, and pickup trucks manufactured in 2027 be EVs, with the final percentage to be based on emissions from other vehicles. The EPA rules require that by 2032, EVs account for at least 56 percent of new car sales, and at least another 13 percent be hybrids, leaving not more than 31% as gas powered.

  In 2023, EVs accounted for only 7.6 percent of new car sales. That is because, despite subsidies and massive pressure from government and the Left, consumers dislike EVs. EVs have limited range, particularly in the cold. They take a long time to charge, and it is difficult for those who live in apartments to do so. They are costly. EVs may not even be particularly good for the environment once the electrical grid and generating capacity are expanded to support mandates, and disposal of lithium ion batteries is considered. It also is unlikely the U.S. could have sufficient generating capacity without brownouts, blackouts, and other conservation measures.

  EV mandates imperil national security by replacing fossil fuels, in which the U.S. is the world leader, with minerals found in China. China also is the low cost manufacturer of EVs, meaning that EV mandates will send American jobs and profits to China.

  Energy expert Mark P. Mills warns that “All the world’s mines, both currently operating and planned, can supply only a small fraction of the… increase in various minerals that will be needed to meet the wildly ambitious EV goals,” while the UN Trade Development Agency advises there will be considerable shortages in lithium, cobalt, and copper if EV requirements are not slowed.

  The strong disfavor in which consumers hold EVs is seen in two numbers. As Fortune observed, “no one wants to buy used EVs,” destroying resale value, and second, EVs are the least likely cars to be stolen. Numerous major automobile manufacturers are cutting EV production targets, and earlier this year Hertz announced that it was disposing of a third of its almost new EV fleet. The 2024 Deloitte Global Automotive Consumer Study found that EVs were never very popular among consumers, and familiarity is breeding contempt, with a 9% increase in the popularity of gas powered cars. A Gallup survey in April found that among Democrats who don’t yet own an EV, the percent saying they would never purchase an EV rose 10 points, compared to a year ago.

  Harris not only wants to deprive Americans of the opportunity to choose gas-powered cars and most hybrids, but she also supports the Green New Deal’s goal of prohibiting sales of home appliances that do not meet draconian emissions standards. To date, the Biden-Harris administration has sought to take off the market most home dishwashers, heaters, air conditioners, and gas stoves. A federal appeals court struck down the Department of Energy’s action targeting dishwashers.

  In May, the House passed the Hands Off Our Home Appliances Act on a bipartisan basis. That bill is intended to restrain the administration from banning home appliances that run on natural gas.

  Next time Kamala Harris claims that she won’t tell you what to buy, just keep in mind that she intends to eliminate most options, leaving you with a Hobson’s choice of poorly performing alternatives.

  Kenin M. Spivak is founder and chairman of SMI Group LLC, an international consulting firm and investment bank. He is the author of fiction and non-fiction books and a frequent speaker and contributor to media, including The American Mind, National Review, the National Association of Scholars, television, radio, and podcasts.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/18/2024 – 19:15

• NATO Membership Or Nuclear Weapons: Zelensky Stuns Allies With Demand
  NATO Membership Or Nuclear Weapons: Zelensky Stuns Allies With Demand

  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, having received a lackluster response when he pitched his ‘victory plan’ to US officials in Washington last month, now says that Ukraine must either join NATO or obtain nuclear weapons.

  He made the ultra provocative comments while speaking before the EU’s European Council in Brussels, where he presented the victory plan before European lawmakers. That’s when he referenced a recent private conversation with Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, saying he told Trump that his country needs “some kind of alliance” or be “forced to pursue nuclear weapons.” 

  “In a conversation with Donald Trump I said – this is our situation: What way out do we have? Either Ukraine will have nuclear weapons, which for us will be a defense, or we’ll need to have some sort of alliance, besides NATO. But today we know of no other alliance,” Zelensky said.

  

  “NATO countries today are not at war. NATO countries are not fighting. In NATO countries people are still alive. Thank God. That is why we choose NATO, not nuclear weapons. And Donald Trump heard me. He said you have a just argument,” he continued.

  At one point in these comments he referenced this historic Budapest Memorandum, a 1994 agreement where Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear arsenal from Soviet times in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, the US, and UK.

  He also emphasized in a rhetorical question, “Which nuclear states suffered? None except Ukraine… Who gave up their nuclear weapons? All of them? No. Only Ukraine… Who is fighting today? Ukraine.”

  Following the address, Zelensky appeared alongside NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and sought to downplay the nuclear remarks, saying, “We never spoke about … that we are preparing to create nuclear weapons or something like this.”

  Russian media also picked up on this moment:

  Zelensky himself walked back his earlier comments at a later joint news conference in Brussels with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, saying: “I said I have no alternative except NATO. That was my signal. But we are not building nuclear weapons.”

  Meanwhile former Russian president and current deputy chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev has claimed that Ukraine is working on a dirty bomb. He said the Zelensky government “has everything necessary for that: resources, technology and specialists.”

  However, he dismissed the Ukrainian leader’s nuke rhetoric as nonsense, and instead focused his criticisms on the likelier potential to develop a dirty bomb.

  “Either Ukraine will have nuclear weapons, and then it will be a defense for us, or Ukraine will be in NATO. NATO countries are not at war today. All people are alive in NATO countries. And that is why we choose NATO over nuclear weapons.” – President Zelensky. pic.twitter.com/yAv3RoozDi

  — WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) October 17, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  If Kiev pushes this nuclear development line further, it’s likely to find that the US and West will distance themselves from more long-term support, amid accusations that arms and ammo supplies have been dwindling to just a trickle.

  Among Zelensky’s main messages to the EU on Thursday was that a “dangerous winter” lies ahead, and therefore more immediate financial and weapons aid is urgent. “We did our homework,” Zelensky said of efforts to prepare for the winter months, at a moment Russia is gaining ground in the east.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/18/2024 – 18:55

• Pro-Crypto Orgs Dominate Megadonors To US Presidential Election
  Pro-Crypto Orgs Dominate Megadonors To US Presidential Election

  As the 2024 election approaches, organizations are pouring millions of dollars in to support their party of choice, or in some cases, bipartisan groups that bolster their industry.

  Using data from the Federal Election Commission for the period January 1, 2023 to August 20, 2024, The Washington Post compiled the 50 top organization donors and where they spent their money. This chart, via Visual Capitalist’s Julie Peasley, maps the top 10.

  

  Megadonors Supporting Bipartisan Groups

  Crypto companies Coinbase and Ripple gave the majority of their donations to Fairshake, a super political action committee (PAC) that supports campaigns of crypto-friendly congressional candidates. Andreessen Horowitz, a venture capital firm, also supported Fairshake.

  Contributions from these three megadonors totaled $180.1 million.

  Megadonors Supporting Partisan Groups

  The majority of the donations went to partisan groups.

  

  The largest contributors to Republican organizations include the Empower Parents PAC and Koch Industries. The notable donations made by these firms went to Never Back Down Inc. ($82.5 million from Empower Parents PAC), Americans for Prosperity Action, Congressional Leadership Fund, and Senate Leadership Fund.

  Conversely, the remaining five of the top 10 megadonors supported Democratic groups. The most significant recipients were Democracy PAC, which received $60.0 million from Fund for Policy Reform, and Future Forward PAC, which received $55.9 million from Future Forward USA Action.

  If you found this interesting, check out this visualization that looks at the U.S.’s most trusted sources for government information.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/18/2024 – 18:50

• Gold: The "Everything Hedge"
  Gold: The “Everything Hedge”

  Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

  Goodbye Digital, Hello Physical

  Is the election over already?

  Sure, Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 5. But the election is happening in real-time and will mostly be over by the end of this week because of early voting, mail-in ballots, drop boxes and ballot harvesting.

  These votes won’t be counted until Election Day, but they are being cast now, so hopefully somebody will be watching this time.

  It goes state by state, so different states have different laws, obviously. But in many states, the voting has already begun. In many cases, it was Oct. 11. Other states opened up on Oct. 15.

  But the point is a lot of the voting has already happened, and a lot more is going to happen during this week.

  So the election will be over before Election Day. We won’t know the results until Nov. 5, but the election’s very largely over in the middle of October. (That’s why the “October surprise” of past election cycles is obsolete.)

  Polls Pointing to Trump

  This timing is another reason why I believe Donald Trump will win this election. Polling has swung to the Trump camp in the past few weeks. This momentum has come at the right time as early voting began in critical battleground states.

  But once voters have cast their votes and a winner is declared next month, the election will not be over. Why? Because the Democrats have another lawfare trick up their sleeves in anticipation of a Trump victory.

  But let’s assume for the moment that Trump wins the election and actually takes office in January. What market sectors should do well under a second Trump administration?

  Here are some of the sectors that will benefit with a Trump victory in November:

  • Oil and natural gas drilling, production and refining

  • Mining (gold, silver, copper, lithium)

  • Defense (especially in contractors with good research and development programs. We need new technology, not just more of the same weapons)

  • Automobile manufacturing focused more on internal-combustion engines rather than electric vehicles.

  

  The Return of the Physical

  I would also look at sectors that benefit from lower oil and gas prices including trucking and airlines.

  Trump’s agenda will incentivize billions of dollars of investments in U.S. energy and manufacturing jobs. He’ll make domestic oil drilling and refining a top priority which will provide America with energy independence. This will also benefit companies (and provide more jobs) in the energy sector.

  He’ll also eliminate the Green New Scam by reducing spending on wasteful projects like Kamala Harris’ EV mandates. This will allow automakers to shine once more by producing more automobiles with traditional internal-combustion engines.

  In short, a second Trump term could ignite a boom in the physical world. This stands in stark contrast to most of the past 15 years, which have seen the domination of investments in the digital, online world.

  Since most investors’ portfolios are outweighed with popular, mega-cap technology stocks, few are positioned to profit from this trend. You shouldn’t be one of them.

  Refiners, Refiners, Refiners! 

  Here, my senior analyst, Dan Amoss, lays out the investment case for refiners, which should thrive under a second Trump administration:

  One sector you should pay attention to is refiners because U.S. refiners are in a new golden age. Two years ago, you may recall hearing news stories about tight diesel supplies across many areas of the U.S.

  The Biden/Harris administration has constantly promised action to “fight” high prices for gasoline and diesel. However, this administration has only made politically expedient, short term-oriented moves like draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

  The cold, hard reality that green energy advocates need to accept is that the billion-plus fleet of internal-combustion engines around the world will need diesel and gasoline for decades into the future.

  Pandering to a political base of radical environmentalists will only result in the loss of political power, whether it’s in the U.S. or Europe.

  Until we see more political support to maintain U.S. oil, gas and refining production capacity — and years of catch-up investments are made — we’ll keep bumping up against constraints.

  Demand for refined products remains strong despite high prices. Gasoline and diesel prices might seem high, but that’s only because it’s natural to make a mental anchor to super-low prices in 2020 and early 2021.

  Why U.S. Refineries Are in a New Golden Age

  Hydrogen is a crucial ingredient in the oil refining process. It dilutes the carbon in the end product, which allows for increased production of high-quality fuels. Where do refineries get hydrogen?

  They get it from natural gas. Access to lower-cost natural gas is why U.S. refineries will enjoy a huge competitive advantage versus competing refineries in Europe and Asia.

  Natural gas prices in Europe have cooled off over the winter as demand has slowed. In recent years, Europe has enjoyed some of the warmest winters in memory. But it won’t always be unseasonably warm.

  Another surge in natural gas prices will remind investors that it will be difficult to profitably refine crude in Europe. The continent may see more refinery shutdowns in the years ahead.

  If so, it will rely more on imported products from geographies that have been investing in refineries, including the Middle East. Mothballed European refineries act to tighten refined product supply, which boosts profits at U.S. refiners.

  Sanctions on Russian refined products have tightened refined product supplies — especially distillates (heating oil and diesel). Of course, Russia gets around sanctions by exporting to third parties. But the net effect is an increase in miles traveled for the global refined-product tanker fleet.

  That means there are more refined products on the water and fewer products sitting in onshore tanks. Tighter onshore supplies keep prices high.

  Meanwhile, U.S. refining capacity has been in a downtrend since COVID. So even if demand for gasoline and diesel falls in a recession, tighter refining capacity will cushion the downside risk in refining margins.

  We like to recommend cyclical stocks when their sectors have been underinvesting. Refining has been underinvesting for several years, so it’s a good time to own refiners. The mid-2000s was a golden age for U.S. refiners. Profits were high and consistent, and refining stocks left the S&P 500 in the dust. Now we’re looking at another golden age.

  Gold: The “Everything Hedge”

  Returning to the election, Trump is in a good position to win. Still, the uncertainty factor and element of surprise make it too soon to issue a final prediction. And if the Democrats have their way, Trump could be in for a battle to take office even if he wins. So there’s still a lot of uncertainty.

  Markets hate uncertainty. That’s why volatility will be high for the next several weeks in several sectors of the market.

  It’s a perfect scenario for owning gold. I call gold the “everything hedge.” It hedges you against political uncertainty, stock market collapse, geopolitical risk, social unrest and an attack on the U.S. dollar. So gold serves all those purposes.

  That’s why I recommend 10% of your investable assets be allocated to gold. It’s excellent insurance that’ll give you peace of mind in uncertain times.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/18/2024 – 18:25

• Oh, 'Bamacare! Visualizing Forty Years Of Health Insurance Cost Inflation
  Oh, ‘Bamacare! Visualizing Forty Years Of Health Insurance Cost Inflation

  The Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX) now covers forty years worth of data for how Americans households spend money.

  That data includes how much the average “consumer unit” surveyed by the U.S. Census Bureau spends on health insurance, which like many other things in the economy, has seen significant cost inflation over the past four decades.

  The following chart, via Political Calculations blog, shows how that cost has changed from 1984, the first year for the CEX, through 2023, the latest, whose data was just released last month.

  As you’ll see, over the past 40 years, there has been one major factor that has altered the trajectory for how much American households/consumer units pay on average for health insurance coverage.

  

  Back in 1984, the first year for the CEX, American household consumer units paid an average of $370 for health insurance.

  That figure grew steadily over the following years and by 2000, the average cost of health insurance for a U.S. household has risen to $980.

  From 2000 through 2010, the average cost of health insurance grew faster, reaching $1,826 by 2010.

  Had the 2000 through 2010 growth trend continued, we estimate the average amount American households would pay for health insurance in 2023 would be $2,927.

  But it didn’t, thanks to the passage of the Affordable Care Act, which was signed into law in 2010.

  It was implemented over several years, going into full effect in 2014.

  The claimed goal of the law, as suggested by its name, was to make health insurance more affordable for Americans.

  In 2023, the average cost of health insurance paid by American households has more than doubled what it was in 2010.

  At an average $4,049 per household, this expense is more than 38% higher than the trend that existed in the decade before the Affordable Care Act became law.

  The chart also indicates the cost “curve” for health insurance has bent upward since 2021, which has inflated more quickly over the last few years following 2020’s coronavirus pandemic.

  Political Calculations blog will be featuring other aspects of how American consumer spending has changed over the past four decades using the latest CEX data in the weeks ahead.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/18/2024 – 18:00

• Gmail Users Warned About New Account Takeover Scam: Here's What To Look For
  Gmail Users Warned About New Account Takeover Scam: Here’s What To Look For

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A security researcher and a technology startup CEO are warning that some Gmail users could fall prey to a sophisticated, AI-based scam that could lead to their accounts being taken over.

  

  Garry Tan, chief executive of prominent tech-oriented venture capital firm Ycombinator, wrote on X late last week that there is a “pretty elaborate” phishing scam that uses an AI-generated voice.

  The scammers “[claim] to be Google Support (caller ID matches, but is not verified),” he wrote in an Oct. 10 post that he termed a “public service announcement.”

  “DO NOT CLICK YES ON THIS DIALOG—You will be phished.

  “They claim to be checking that you are alive and that they should disregard a death certificate filed that claims a family member is recovering your account. It’s a pretty elaborate ploy to get you to allow password recovery.”

  IT consultant Sam Mitrovic, in a blog post last month, wrote of a similar scam attempt targeting Gmail accounts and also using an AI-generated voice.

  “The scams are getting increasingly sophisticated, more convincing and are deployed at ever larger scale,” Mitrovic wrote in the post. “People are busy and this scam sounded and looked legitimate enough that I would give them an A for their effort. Many people are likely to fall for it.”

  According to the post, Mitrovic said he received a notification to approve an attempt to recover a Gmail account, which he ultimately rejected. He then received a phone call about 40 minutes later with a caller ID as “Google Sydney” and rejected it as well.

  “Exactly a week later,” he said, “more or less exactly the same time, I received another notification to approve my Gmail account recovery again from the United States.

  “You guessed it—about 40 minutes later I receive a call which I pick up this time. It’s an American voice, very polite and professional. The number is Australian. He introduces himself and says that there is suspicious activity on my account.”

  The person on the other line then asked if Mitrovic was traveling, to which he replied he was not, according to his account. The person then asked if Mitrovic was in Germany, to which he also said no.

  Mitrovic said he found the caller’s number was an official one that was listed under Google Australia’s IT support page, adding that he asked for a confirmation email, and the sender address also appeared to be an official account used by Google’s team.

  “In the background, I can hear someone typing on the keyboard and throughout the call there is some background noise reminiscent of a call centre. He tells me that he has sent the email. After a few moments, the email arrives and at a first glance the email looks legit—the sender is from a Google domain,” he wrote.

  But the researcher noted that “spoofing an email address is easy and I notice that the To field contains an email address cleverly named GoogleMail at InternalCaseTracking dot com (non-Google domain).”

  “The caller said, Hello, I ignored it then about 10 seconds later, then said Hello again,” he said, adding that at that moment, he realized the voice was AI-generated, “as the pronunciation and spacing were too perfect.”

  Mitrovic wrote that he hung up and called the number back. He then received a message that said, “This is Google Maps, we are currently unable to take your call.”

  The researcher said he wasn’t the only one who appeared to have been almost scammed, finding others who wrote that they were targeted by a similar scheme.

  Public service announcement: You should be aware of a pretty elaborate phishing scam using AI voice that claims to be Google Support (caller ID matches, but is not verified)

  DO NOT CLICK YES ON THIS DIALOG— You will be phished

  They claim to be checking that you are alive and… pic.twitter.com/60zeuS2lL8

  — Garry Tan (@garrytan) October 10, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “There are many tools to fight the scammers, however, at an individual level the best tool is still vigilance, doing the basic checks as above or seeking assistance from someone you trust,” Mitrovic wrote.

  According to the blog post, the researcher said there were several hints to suggest it may have been an attempt to take over his Google or Gmail account.

  Mitrovic noted that telltale signs of a scam include that one, he received account recovery messages that he did not initiate; two, it was a phone call, as Google does not call users unless they have a Google Business Profile; and three, the email he received had an address “not connected to a Google domain.” Additionally, the email header showed “how the email was spoofed,” and a “reverse number search showed others who received the same scam call,” he said.

  “Despite many red flags upon closer inspection, this call seemed legitimate enough to trick many people,” he wrote. “My guess is that their conversion rate from calls answered would be relatively high.”

  The Epoch Times contacted Google for comment about Mitrovic’s and Tan’s warnings but received no response by press time.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/18/2024 – 17:40

• New Claims That 10,000 North Korean Troops Are Being Sent To Fight Ukraine
  New Claims That 10,000 North Korean Troops Are Being Sent To Fight Ukraine

  At this point it has become clear that Zelensky is trying to scare and blackmail the West into ramping up support to Ukraine, which includes a push allow NATO membership, and with loose talk of seeking to acquire nuclear weapons to boot.

  Part of the fearmongering has also featured Zelensky’s insistence that a global coalition of enemies is now fighting Kiev. “The coalition of criminals along with Putin already includes North Korea,” Zelensky told his parliament in a speech this week. “Everyone sees the Iranian regime’s assistance to Putin, and also China’s cooperation with Russia.”

  The next day, Thursday, Zelensky was in Brussels where he informed EU officials that North Korea is amassing a large amount of troops in Russia, readying them to fight in Ukraine.

  

  “We know that there are 10,000 soldiers of North Korea, that they are preparing to send, fight against us,” he said in a briefing. This includes “land forces, other tactical personnel” and framed it as “the first step to a world war.”

  “Because of the gap in mobilization, because of lots of Russian losses, and [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is afraid of mobilisation very much . . . that is why he is trying to involve other participants in this war,” he added.

  But as Financial Times has pointed out, Western intelligence finds these claims dubious:

  Military analysts and Nato officials have cast doubt on the accuracy of reports that North Korean troops are involved in combat in eastern Ukraine. Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte said on Wednesday that the defence alliance had no “definitive” information on this matter.

  The White House said on Tuesday it could not independently confirm the reports of North Korean troops fighting on behalf of Russia but “those reports are concerning to us”, according to National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby.

  On Friday, South Korean intelligence (the NIS) sought to vouch for Zelensky’s claims, saying it believes up to 12,000 North Korean troops are mustering in Russia, and that at least 1,500 have already arrived.

  South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has highlighted the report Friday, issuing a call for international community must respond with “all available means”.

  If indeed there were a surge of North Korean troops of this size into Eastern Europe, there would likely be photographic evidence, or at least leaked images of some kind. Pro-Kiev accounts have offered the following unverified images, sources and date unclear…

  This is reportedly how North Korean soldiers are outfitted in Russian gear.

  According to reports, this is the Sergievsky training ground in Russia’s Far East.

  Soldiers from North Korea are fighting in Europe against a European country.
  How will Europe react? https://t.co/IgoPAqqCOo pic.twitter.com/iMfAGZorEM

  — Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) October 18, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  If true this would mark a major escalation of N.Korea’s involvement. “More North Korean troops could be deployed in the war,” Seoul had previously warned this much. But the West wouldn’t be able to do much, having already put fairly maximum sanctions on both Russia and North Korea. It could be another dangerous sign that the Ukraine war is getting more and more internationalized.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/18/2024 – 17:20

• Did CDC Officials Mislead The Public About COVID Vaccine Efficacy? Rep. Massie Says "Yes"
  Did CDC Officials Mislead The Public About COVID Vaccine Efficacy? Rep. Massie Says “Yes”

  Via American Greatness,

  When Congressman Thomas Massie (R-KY) contacted officials from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in December of 2020, he wanted to know if taking the newly released Covid vaccine would benefit him, since he’d already contracted the illness.

  

  After reading the scientific studies himself, and seeing no benefit, Massie contacted the CDC to learn why they were putting out incorrect information which claimed that their studies showed that the Covid vaccine does provide a benefit to those who have previously had Covid.

  Massie says those secretly recorded conversations with CDC officials in December of 2020 show that they were lying about their Pfizer Covid vaccine trial data.

  In December of 2020, I caught CDC lying about Pfizer COVID vaccine trial data. I recorded phone conversations with CDC where they admitted I was right. My late wife Rhonda suggested I give the tapes to @SharylAttkisson. I did and Sharyl exposed CDC. Watch:pic.twitter.com/apWAVJqcdv

  — Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) October 16, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  In those phone calls, Massie says CDC officials were caught deliberately downplaying the effectiveness of natural immunity while pushing for Covid-19 vaccinations for everyone, regardless of prior infection.

  According to Attkisson, in the recordings, CDC officials thanked Massie for finding the mistake in their studies and admitted that the claims of vaccine efficacy for the previously infected wasn’t true, yet they pushed back on correcting the falsehood, saying it would confuse the public.

  Attkisson says, the very next day, those same officials who had admitted their mistake regarding the vaccine’s effectiveness to Massie nevertheless conducted a webinar for doctors that repeated the same misinformation.

  In the recording, Massie expresses concern that continuing to encourage previously infected people with natural immunity to get the vaccine, which was in short supply, could prevent others who were at greater risk from Covid from having access to the vaccine.

  In a call with CDC’s Washington D.C. Director Anstis Brand, Massie says, “If there’s a “they” who is refusing to fix something that is factually and provably wrong, I want to know who “they” is. Because this is going to result and is already resulting in misallocation of the vaccine.”

  Brand tells him that she’ll have to look into it and get back to him.

  In another call with the CDC’s Dr. Sara Oliver, Massie points out the error in which the study erroneously claims that the vaccine is efficacious for those with prior infection and he asks to get it corrected.

  Dr. Oliver says admits that Massie is correct but says that the CDC still is recommending that previously infected individuals get the vaccine, saying “We wouldn’t want to put out that if you’ve had Covid before, you shouldn’t get the vaccine.”

  Massie’s recorded calls with CDC officials clearly show the agency was pushing vaccination even for those who likely didn’t need it due to natural immunity.

  These revelations appear to vindicate those who expressed worries that U.S health officials were being driven by an agenda to promote vaccines rather than by honest science.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/18/2024 – 17:00

• US Banks Suffer Biggest Weekly Deposit Outflow Since SVB Crisis
  US Banks Suffer Biggest Weekly Deposit Outflow Since SVB Crisis

  After the massive deposit inflows the prior week, US banks saw total deposits plunge in the week-ending 10/09 (latest data released today), down a stunning $69BN (on a seasonally-adjusted basis), erasing the prior two weeks deposit inflows…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, banks also deposit outflows ($59.5BN)…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  Additionally, for the first time in four weeks, money market funds saw (admittedly small) outflows this week (-$6.5BN), taking them just off record highs…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  That is only the second weekly outflow from MM funds in the last three months… and the outflow was all institutional (with retail funds continuing to see inflows)…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  Excluding foreign deposits, the US domestic bank deposit outflows were considerably worse, down $85BN (NSA) and $88BN (SA)…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  That is the biggest weekly SA domestic deposit outflow since the SVB crisis in March 2023…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  As a reminder, its tax-filing extension deadline time, which we’re sure explains some of this. However, this is the largest mid-October deposit outflow since at least the GFC.

  Outflows from Large Banks (-$81BN SA and -$85BN NSA) dominated small inflow for Small Banks (+$3.4BN SA and +$0.03BN NSA).

  The Fed’s bank bailout facility continued to shrink last week (down $2BN), really getting back to immediate SVB crisis loan levels (having erased all the arbitrage-driven surge in the blue box)…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  As might be expected with the large deposit drawdown, loan volumes shrank dramatically at Large Banks (and rose modestly at Small Banks)

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  Finally, the gap between bank reserves at The Fed and US equity mareket cap continues to widen…

  

  …will that relationship ever recouple?

  So, all eyes next week on deposit flows to see if they normalize after tax-day.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/18/2024 – 16:40

• The Three Layers Of Culpability
  The Three Layers Of Culpability

  Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

  “The migrant crisis has been the first issue to truly evocatively make obvious that something extremely dark and sinister is happening to the country.”

  – Simplicius on Substack

  The Great Fright among the elite of the party ruling our country steals across the land chillingly now from sea to shining sea – as if all those ghouls, werewolves, zombies, and tormented wraiths assembled in the front yard Halloween displays send up one mighty wail of despair: Donald Trump will seek revenge against his enemies if you elect him! they scream into the pale moonlight.

  

  Well, he ought to, of course, and remember: they are your enemies, too – the FBI thugs battering down your doors at five in the morning, the malicious US attorneys manufacturing phony felonies, the Soros-owned DAs and party-owned judges, and the thousands of spooks from agencies both known and unheard-of surveilling your every move, every purchase, every journey, every thought. Consider that it is not whether Mr. Trump might seek revenge but whether justice, and the mental health of the nation, require an accounting for the real crimes of actual persons against the people of America lo these years of the Woke Jacobin Inquisition.

  Finally, as the days dwindle down to November 5, you understand exactly what motivates the three layers of evil heaping America with malice and punishment.

  • Layer one: the officers of the political establishment, a.k.a., “the blob” or Deep State, both current and emeritus. You know now that they are motived to stay out of courts-of-law (and, ultimately, prison). Figures such as John Brennan, Merrick Garland, Lisa Monaco, Chris Wray, Anthony Fauci, Alejandro Mayorkas, Barack Obama, and many more, exude culpability for doing real harm to US citizens. They do not want to do time. As Dr. Johnson famously said: “When a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully.” They see Donald Trump’s poll number go hockey stick and they tremble in their Beltway mansions. On the Kubler-Ross transect of grief, they are just now wavering between the stages of anger and bargaining.

  • Second layer: the lawfare lawyer gang deployed to keep the blob safe from investigation and prosecution: Marc Elias, (the mail-in ballot fraud genius), Norm Eisen, Andrew Weissmann, Mary McCord (authors of every get-Trump legal brief), and many others who work with them, are motivated by the gigantic fees they command from the Democratic National Committee and other cut-out orgs that funnel payments to them. The Elias Law Group alone is rumored to have raked-in millions from one client, the Kamala Harris campaign. This is apart from whatever lawyerly zeal they exercise so enjoyably in their blood-lust for Mr. Trump and his associates. Remember: Jacobins are sadists who derive pleasure from cruelly punishing their adversaries. It probably motivates them more than the money involved, since ambitious Beltway lawyers can always and easily make bundles of money from the most mundane services to the blob.

  • Third Layer: the news media. The motives of these birds are the flimsiest: social status and professional stature. They operate within a self-referential reward bubble that provides psychological nourishment as long as they go along with the mumurations of their flock. They will be easiest to turn around as the national mood turns (and is now turning, sharply). A year from now, don’t be surprised if they treat Mr. Trump as a revered hero who saved the country from the malignant blob — and pretend that they never thought otherwise. By then, it will be too late for some, of course, and actual figures such as Lawrence O’Donnell and Rachel Maddow of MSNBC, Maggie Haberman of The New York Times, NBC’s Nicolle Wallace, will be drowning in their own slime trails.

  Now, whether Mr. Trump would actively seek revenge is a thing apart from the paranoia of his adversaries.

  On the one hand, he seems aware that his own place in history will rest not on looking backward to the harms inflicted on him as the sacrificial goat for the sins of “the deplorables” – the many Lawfare cases against him will likely be reversed in higher courts, or just dropped – but on attending to and fixing the many obvious, reality-based problems afflicting the nation: inflation, the horrendous debt, the libido for war induced by military contractors and neocons, the return of productive industry and jobs that pay living wages, sealing the border and expelling dangerous aliens, and stopping the race-and-gender hustles, to name a few things.

  In 2016, Mr. Trump floated the idea of defaulting on US debt, or negotiating its terms. Sounded outrageous to some at the time. Now, with the BRICs org meeting to de-dollarize their trade arrangements, might be a ripe time to make such a move. He can reverse “Joe Biden’s” 2021 reversal of his border policies by executive order on day one, put a stop to the “sanctuary city” idiocy, and end all cash incentives to illegals currently inside the USA. He can negotiate a reasonable end to the Ukraine conflict that leaves that country neutral, as everyone knows it should be. He can incentivize the return of factory production with US companies. He knows (and you know) that there is a huge agenda of practical problems to face. Mr. Trump does not need the aggravation of stirring up further grievance and resentment among the defeated Wokesters. He needs them to get aboard a national reclamation project, get their minds right, and lend a hand.

  Speaking of hands, on the other hand, remember that the signal weakness of Julius Caesar was pardoning his enemies. Since Mr. Trump is best known as a deal-maker, I believe he will seek to make a deal with the blob. The deal will be for them to cooperate in the prosecution of certain key figures in exchange for not demolishing their agencies altogether. Some of these people — Garland, Mayorkas, Fauci, Brennan, and Wray, for examples — really do need to do some ‘splainin’ in front of juries. That may be sufficient to clarify for history some of the damage the Woke insanity did to our country. We can’t pretend that nothing happened. Most of all, Mr. Trump has to defeat the sick belief that anything goes and nothing matters.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/18/2024 – 16:20

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• The US Fears An Uncontrollable Escalation Sequence With Russia Much More Than With Iran
  The US Fears An Uncontrollable Escalation Sequence With Russia Much More Than With Iran

  Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

  Politico cited a senior Senate aid and two sources in the Biden Administration to report on Wednesday that the US is much more afraid of an uncontrollable escalation sequence with Russia than with Iran due to the first’s nuclear capabilities.

  

  As proof of this, the US has no qualms about shooting down Iranian missiles launched against Israel but won’t consider shooting down Russian ones launched against Ukraine, which has upset Zelensky and some of his compatriots who thus feel like second-class allies.

  The difference between Russia/Ukraine and Iran/Israel in this regard accounts for the US’ different approach towards each pair.

  As was explained last month in this analysis about why “Putin Explicitly Confirmed What Was Already Self-Evident About Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine”, the comparatively more pragmatic policymakers who still have the final say in Russia and the US have thus far managed to avoid the uncontrollable escalation sequence that their respective hawkish rivals want.

  Here’s how they did it:

  “[The US hawks’] comparatively more pragmatic rivals who still call the shots always signal their escalatory intentions far in advance so that Russia could prepare itself and thus be less likely to ‘overreact’ in some way that risks World War III. Likewise, Russia continues restraining itself from replicating the US’ ‘shock-and-awe’ campaign in order to reduce the likelihood of the West ‘overreacting’ by directly intervening in the conflict to salvage their geopolitical project and thus risking World War III.

  It can only be speculated whether this interplay is due to each’s permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies (‘deep state’) behaving responsibly on their own considering the enormity of what’s at stake or if it’s the result of a ‘gentlemen’s agreement’. Whatever the truth may be, the aforesaid model accounts for the unexpected moves or lack thereof from each, which are the US correspondingly telegraphing its escalatory intentions and Russia never seriously escalating in kind.”

  There’s no equivalent balance of nuclear power between the US and Iran, with the most that Iran can do is launch saturation strikes against American bases in the region, not existentially threaten it like Russia can.

  If Iran’s potential retaliation to Israel’s expected strike harms or kills some of the nearly 100-member team operating the US’ THAAD in the self-professed Jewish State, then the US could either take the hit, retaliate against Iranian-aligned Resistance groups in the region, or strike the Islamic Republic.

  Regardless of whatever might happen, non-nuclear Iran is incapable of existentially threatening the US like nuclear-armed Russia could if the latter retaliated to the interception of its missiles by hitting targets inside of NATO, which could easily catalyze a possibly apocalyptic escalation sequence.

  To be sure, there are indeed some US hawks who want to risk that scenario and the abovementioned comparatively less consequential one in West Asia, but their more pragmatic rivals are still able to stop them for now.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/17/2024 – 23:25

• China Macro Data Dump "Unexpectedly" Beats Across The Board
  China Macro Data Dump “Unexpectedly” Beats Across The Board

  On the day the Biden admin decided to flagrantly misrepresent the last retail sales report before the election, and used the biggest ever September seasonal adjustment on record to make an unadjusted retail sales decline into a blazing hot print, once again misleading the Fed that the economy is doing much better than it is, something Powell lamented after the BLS recently “revised out” some 818K jobs …

  

  … China decided to out BS the BLS, and moments ago reported economic “data” that was fake, goalseeked and, well, BS from top to bottom.

  In its Friday morning data dump when Beijing reported all the key economic metrics for the month, as one would expect from the only country eager to outmanipulate the US when it comes to rigging econ data, every single data point beat estimates but only ever so slightly, you know… to make it realistic:

  • Q3 GDP 4.6%, beating estimates of 4.5% (but down from 4.7$ in Q2).
  • Retail Sales Sept 3.2%, beating estimates of 2.5%, and up from 2.1%
  • Industrial Output 5.4%, beating estimates of 4.5%, and up from 4.5%
  • Fixed Investment Jan-Sept 3.4%, beating estimates of 3.3%, and unch sequentially
  • Urban jobless rate dropped to 5.1% from 5.3% in August

  

  Why this miraculous “beat” across the board? Simple: to instill confidence that the fake bazooka which Beijing pretended to fire in late September, yet which appears to be just another major dud where Xi Jinping hopes to sent stocks and home prices surging without actually massively expanding credit into the economy, is already succeeding. The better-than-expected retail sales figures in September also received a boost from government subsidies for buying home appliances, which saw a 21% surge in sales from a year ago, picking up from a 3% gain in the previous month.

  Alas, as we discussed earlier, it is doing anything but and investors are already fleeing from Chinese markets just days after mainland stocks soared as much as 30% on what in retrospect appears to have been hollow promises, lies and David Tepper dumping his bags while using gullible CNBC viewers as exit liquidity telling them to buy China no questions asked.

  Yet not even the fake data could cover up that China’s economy continues to sink: yes, the numbers may have beat, but the Q3 GDP – the slowest since Q1 2023 – remains well below the government’s target for full-year growth of 5% and less than the 4.7% recorded in the previous quarter as sluggish consumption and a property slump weighed on household sentiment.

  “It makes the official growth target of 5% difficult to achieve if this trend continues to year end,” said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. “This may be why the government decided in the Politburo meeting to change policy stance and boost growth.”

  The National Bureau of Statistics said there’s reason for caution despite improvements in the main indicators as the stimulus measures are rolled out. “We also need to see that the external environment is increasingly complex and grim, and the economy’s foundation for rebound and improvement needs to be further solidified,” a spokesperson said in a statement accompanying the release, pretending it is somehow everyone else’s fault Beijing has completely lost its ability to reflate the economy.

  Data released before Friday painted a mixed picture for growth in September. Exports slowed sharply, curbing a trade rebound that has been a bright spot for the economy. Deflationary pressures continued to build, with consumer prices still weak and factory gate prices falling for 24 straight months.

  The softer growth will underscore the need for more support for the economy from Beijing, which in late September announced its biggest monetary stimulus since the pandemic and followed up with promises of heavy fiscal spending, yet which have yet to materialize.

  As noted earlier, China’s markets reacted exuberantly to the news of monetary stimulus but – once Jim Cramer said to rush into Chinese stocks – have slumped as desperate investors await confirmation of the coming fiscal stimulus. The CSI 300 index of Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed stocks and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng benchmark are down in October, although they remain up for the year to date.

  

  Efforts by the country’s economic planner, finance ministry and housing ministry to boost confidence have been consistent duds, falling far short of investor expectations. The Hang Seng Mainland Properties index fell 6.7% on Thursday after the housing ministry’s support for the real estate sector disappointed markets. Authorities have yet to quantify the extra fiscal spending, but analysts have said this might be announced at a standing committee meeting of the National People’s Congress, China’s rubber-stamp parliament, in the coming weeks.

  And amusingly, just as Chinese and Hong Kong stocks slumped after the strong Chinese data (because they were not misses, taking away from the urgency to stimulate more), with the CSI 300 already into negative territory, the central bank stepped in yet again with what has now become a daily market-boosting gimmick, which today came in the form of a slew of headlines to show that more easing and support for markets lie ahead.

  • *PBOC SAYS FIRST BATCH OF SFISF QUOTAS EXCEEDED 200 BILLION YUAN
  • *PAN REITERATES PBOC MAY FURTHER LOWER RRR YEAR-END: CAILIAN

  As a result, the CSI 300 is now up nearly 1%, although not even the algos buying Chinese stocks will be fooled for long and having seen this same old song and dance day after day, the selling will resume momentarily as traders indicate they no longer want words but demand actions.

  

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/17/2024 – 23:06

• The Kids Aren't Alright: Local Washington Police Report 350% Increase In Juvenile Fights
  The Kids Aren’t Alright: Local Washington Police Report 350% Increase In Juvenile Fights

  New data coming out of the Issaquah Police Department in Washington have revealed a 350% increase in fights among juveniles since the start of August this year, compared to last year. 

  The data, highlighted by KOMO News, was driven by “juveniles in middle school”, according to the report. 

  Between August 1 and October 15, Issaquah police received 18 reports of juvenile fights, up from 4 during the same period in 2023.

  Officers noted these incidents occurred in public settings and reported a pattern of increased fights at the start of the school year, with most reports coming from adult witnesses, parents, or students.

  Police reported that 72% of juvenile fights occurred between 3 p.m. and 5 p.m., often near school properties or within a few blocks of Issaquah schools. 

  

  The KOMO News report obtained an Oct. 3 memo from Issaquah Middle School Principal Mark Jergens-Zmuda, addressing the rise in student fights, some recorded by bystanders.

  “School safety is paramount, and some measures have been put in place. Ensuring a safe and supportive school environment is our top priority,” the memo said. 

  To address the issue, the school held assemblies on expectations, safety, and conflict resolution. Jergens-Zmuda also reminded parents of school rules, including requiring students to stay seated for the first 15 minutes of lunch and banning gatherings on a nearby hill after school, where several fights had occurred.

  The school district responded in a statement:

  “Schools across the country have student altercations, and our district does as well… we take every instance of student altercations seriously, and investigate them in accordance with Washington state law as well as Issaquah School District policies and regulations. Student privacy laws do not allow us to share specific information about individual instances of altercations, the students involved, or discipline. As always, we are working with students, staff and families to support our students. We appreciate the partnership of our staff, families and community members.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/17/2024 – 23:00

• Raytheon To Pay Over $950 Million In Settlement Over Fraud, Qatari Bribery, And Export Violations
  Raytheon To Pay Over $950 Million In Settlement Over Fraud, Qatari Bribery, And Export Violations

  Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Raytheon, a subsidiary of defense contractor RTX, has agreed to pay more than $950 million to resolve federal investigations into government contract fraud, as well as violations of anti-corruption and export control laws.

  

  The settlement, announced by the Department of Justice (DOJ) on Oct. 16, addresses allegations involving defective pricing on military contracts with the U.S. government, as well as illegal bribes to a Qatari official, with the resolution involving both civil and criminal penalties.

  An RTX spokesperson confirmed the settlement, telling The Epoch Times in an emailed statement that the company acknowledges responsibility for the misconduct and has cooperated with investigators. The company also emphasized its commitment to bolstering its compliance and ethics programs.

  Raytheon has admitted to two major fraud schemes affecting Department of Defense (DoD) contracts, including the provision of PATRIOT missile systems and radar systems.

  In the first case, Raytheon employees provided defective pricing information, leading the DoD to overpay on two contracts by roughly $111 million between 2012 and 2018.

  In a separate scheme, Raytheon failed to provide accurate cost or pricing data for numerous DoD contracts, including a weapons maintenance agreement, leading to further inflated payments.

  Under the terms of a three-year deferred prosecution agreement, Raytheon will pay a criminal monetary penalty of $146.8 million and $111.2 million in victim compensation and retain an independent compliance monitor for three years.

  The company received a 25 percent reduction in penalties for taking remedial actions, such as firing employees responsible for the misconduct and implementing new controls to prevent future fraud.

  Additionally, Raytheon has agreed to pay $428 million to settle False Claims Act allegations related to providing false data during contract negotiations with the DoD. As part of the settlement, Raytheon admitted it misrepresented labor and material costs for weapon systems and double-billed on a radar station contract.

  “The department is committed to holding accountable those contractors that knowingly misrepresent their cost and pricing data or otherwise violate their legal obligations when negotiating or performing contracts with the United States,” Principal Deputy Assistant Attorney General Brian M. Boynton, head of the DOJ’s Civil Division, said in a statement.

  Bribery Scheme in Qatar

  Raytheon also faced charges under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) and the Arms Export Control Act (AECA) for a bribery scheme in Qatar.

  The company was accused of paying nearly $2 million in bribes to Qatari military officials between 2011 and 2017 to secure lucrative defense contracts through sham subcontracts.

  From the early 2000s to 2020, Raytheon also paid more than $30 million to a Qatari agent, a royal family member with no military contracting experience, despite numerous internal warnings about corruption risks.

  In this case, which involved a parallel investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Raytheon was accused of failing to adequately document the agent’s services while continuing to rely on this relationship to obtain defense contracts.

  As part of a settlement with the SEC, Raytheon agreed to pay $124 million in penalties, with $22.5 million of that amount offset by a parallel DOJ fine.

  In addition, Raytheon entered into a separate deferred prosecution agreement with the DOJ for the bribery violations, which includes a $230.4 million criminal fine and a $37 million forfeiture. The company will also retain an independent compliance monitor for three years.

  “Raytheon willfully failed to disclose bribes made in connection with contracts that required export licenses,“ Matthew Olsen, Assistant Attorney General of the DOJ’s National Security Division, said in a statement. ”Today’s resolution should serve as a stark warning to companies that violate the law when selling sensitive military technology overseas.”

  RTX has expressed its commitment to taking responsibility for the violations and implementing reforms.

  “We have worked diligently during the investigations to remediate that misconduct and continue to do so,” an RTX spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement. “We are committed to working closely with the incoming independent monitor to improve and further enhance our ethics and compliance program.”

  The spokesperson also reaffirmed the company’s commitment to maintaining a robust compliance program that adheres to global laws and regulations “while upholding integrity and serving our customers in an ethical matter.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/17/2024 – 22:35

• How Many Years Does It Take To Save For A Condo?
  How Many Years Does It Take To Save For A Condo?

  This graphic, via Visual Capitalist, shows the average number of years that a skilled worker must work in order to afford a 650 square foot condo near the city center across select markets, based on data from the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2024.

  

  In Hong Kong, the most unaffordable city worldwide for 14 consecutive years, it takes more than two decades for an average skilled worker to buy a condo.

  Paris stands as the most unaffordable city in Europe, despite real home prices falling more than 20% from post-pandemic highs.

  The median sale price of a condo or co-op in Manhattan stood at nearly $1.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2023, with prices per square foot up 44% in a decade.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/17/2024 – 22:10

• The Shifting Media Landscape
  The Shifting Media Landscape

  Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

  Listening to an interview with journalist Megyn Kelly, I was startled to learn that her private media company beats the mainstream legacy networks in traffic and influence. She has six employees. When she was fired by NBC in 2018, she believed it was the end of her career. She went to dark places in her mind. But she bounced back with her own broadcasting company and has never been happier or more influential.

  

  The same story has been told by Tucker Carlson, whose network is gigantic and whose influence is far beyond even the heights he obtained at Fox in the old days. I have no direct knowledge of how many people work for his personal channel but it is a reasonable guess that it is no more than a dozen.

  Everyone knows about the success and reach of Joe Rogan’s show. Apart from that, there are many thousands more with influence in their own sectors of reach. The share of influence dominated by legacy seems to be falling dramatically. You can detect their influence in this election season in which candidates are working the podcast circuit.

  You might chalk this up to technology: everyone has the capacity now to make content and distribute it. Therefore, of course, people do it.

  The real story, however, is more complicated.

  A new poll from Gallup offers an intriguing look.

  The latest polls show trust in major media is at an all-time low. It’s fallen from a post-Watergate high in 1976 of 72 percent to 31 percent today. That is an enormous slide, impossible to dismiss as mere technological change. Along with that, the poll documents dramatic losses of trust in government and essentially all official institutions.

  

  The loss of trust has hit all age groups but more profoundly affects people under 40 years of age. These are folks who have grown up with alternatives and developed a sophisticated understanding of information flows and are deeply suspicious of any institution that seeks control over public culture.

  Comments Gallup: “The news media is the least trusted group among 10 U.S. civic and political institutions involved in the democratic process. The legislative branch of the federal government, consisting of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, is rated about as poorly as the media, with 34 percent trusting it.”

  In contrast, “majorities of U.S. adults express at least a fair amount of trust in their local government to handle local problems (67 percent), their state government to address state problems (55 percent), and the American people as a whole when it comes to making judgments under our democratic system about the issues facing the country (54 percent).”

  It seems based on this poll that, in people’s hearts and minds, we are defaulting back to the America of Alexis de Tocqueville, a network of self-governing communities of friends and neighbors rather than a centrally managed and controlled monolith. The farther the institutions get from people’s direct experiences, the less they are trusted. That is how it should be, even aside from other considerations.

  In this case, the causal factors are not only the distance and not only the technology that allows for alternatives. Legacy media has been so aggressively partisan for at least nine years that it has alienated vast swaths of the viewing audience. Top executives have known about this problem for a very long time and worked to fix it but they face tremendous pressure from within, from reporters and technicians with Ivy educations and a dedication to woke ideology.

  The New York Times (NYT) after 2016 attempted to repair the damage from having so completely mishandled and miscalled the election. They hired new editors and writers but it was only a matter of time before they were driven out in a reminder to the top brass that there was a cultural revolution afoot, and that the personal is the political and visa-versa.

  The NYT defaulted back to extreme partisanship, leaving owners and managers to figure out other paths to sustaining profitability.

  As a result, it appears that an entire industry is in the process of a long meltdown with no available fixes. Huge audiences have turned away from them toward alternatives that are not necessarily partisan on the other side but simply display a dedication to telling facts and truths about which actual readers care.

  A question has long mystified me: Is this loss of trust entirely due to a change in media bias or is it that new technological options have fully revealed what might always have been there but was not widely known? I don’t have the answer to that but it is worth some reflection.

  When I was a kid, there were exactly three channels on television and one local newspaper. There was never a chance to see the New York Times except perhaps at the public library. The nightly news came on at 5 p.m. or 6 p.m. It lasted 30 minutes. It opened with international news, moved to national news, turned to sports, and then the local affiliate took over with local news and weather.

  There was perhaps 10 minutes per day of national news on three separate channels, each reporting more-or-less the same thing. That was it. People in those days chose their station based on whether they liked the voice and personality of the broadcaster. News media was highly trusted. But was that trust based on reliable and excellent reporting or simply a reflection of all that people did not know?

  In those days, my own father was deeply distrustful of what he saw on television. Somehow he intuited that Richard Nixon was being railroaded by the Watergate scandal. He theorized that someone was out to get him not for bad things he had done, but for the good he had done and had planned to do. He preached this opinion constantly and it set him apart from all conventional wisdom. Indeed, as a young man I knew for sure that my father was the outlier: none of my friend’s parents agreed and none of my teachers did either.

  Since then, much has come out that seems to reinforce my father’s views.

  If Watergate happened in today’s world, there would be a huge explosion of opinions in all directions, with motives of all actors pushed out on every channel and there would be widespread competition to find the real story. We certainly would not be relying on two relatively inexperienced reporters at the Washington Post.

  I happen to believe that this is a good thing, even though it has come with a loss of trust. Maybe the old trust was not nearly as merited as people thought, simply because there were so few options. As the years went on, there were even more sources, starting with PBS but moving to CNN and C-SPAN. After the web came online and social media took off, that’s when the veil was really pulled back and media wholly transformed.

  People on all sides of the political spectrum today express profound regret for this change. Former presidential candidate John Kerry has said that today’s media environment makes governing impossible, and Hillary Clinton has floated the idea of criminal penalties for misinformation, a word tossed around so frequently these days but rarely defined as anything other than speech that some people do not like.

  All told, the rise of alternative media has surely contributed to the decline in public trust in the mainstream media. This might not reflect a fundamental change in the bias of media sources but simply the reality that we are only now fully aware of what has always been true. In that case, we are better off seeing these trends as good news all around, provided we have an attachment to seeing reality as it is. In any case, we all should.

  Returning to the Kelly/Carlson business model: they are doing far more with fewer staff people than was ever thought possible. It’s a solid prediction that many legacy media companies will be downsizing in terms of personnel in the future. They can do more with less.

  And they can do it with more fairness and less bias. Economic realities will likely make it so.

  The entire landscape of information and media economies is dramatically shifting. That is precisely why we are hearing ever more calls for censorship. Many elites long for the old days of canned and constructed narratives with no other options. But the well-documented loss of trust makes that little more than a pipe dream. It cannot and will not happen.

  The only viable path to earning audience loyalty in our times is to write and speak with fact-based integrity. Trust has to be earned.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/17/2024 – 21:45

• "She's Not As Strong As Me": Lip Reader Deciphers Biden-Obama Grumpy Old Men Chat
  “She’s Not As Strong As Me”: Lip Reader Deciphers Biden-Obama Grumpy Old Men Chat

  On Wednesday afternoon, cameras caught President Joe Biden and former President Barack Obama having a ‘vigorous’ discussion while attending Ethel Kennedy’s funeral. Kennedy died last Thursday at the age of 96 after having a stroke the previous week.

  

  Because their voices weren’t picked up by the camera, the internet got creative and made a few suggestions:

  Here it is. pic.twitter.com/Gkh1aUHHP6

  — 1MANTHRILLRIDE 🇺🇸 (@1MANTHRILLRIDE_) October 16, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  On Thursday, the NY Post reported that they hired a professional lip reader to decipher what was said. Hilariously, the parodies weren’t too far off!

  President Biden griped to former President Barack Obama that “she” is “not as strong as me” — with Obama agreeing “that’s true” — in a stunning off-mic conversation deciphered for The Post by a professional lip reader.

  The apparent candid assessment of Vice President Kamala Harris’ standing going into the Nov. 5 election occurred Wednesday afternoon as America’s two most recent Democratic presidents conversed at Ethel Kennedy’s memorial service in Washington.

  “She’s not as strong as me,” said Biden, 81, according to the translation, which was produced by analyzing the on-video lip movements during the discussion.

  “I know … that’s true,” the popular former president agreed, adding, “We have time.”

  “Yeah, we’ll get it in time,” said Biden, who was forced by fellow Democrats to relinquish the party’s nomination in favor of Harris on July 21 in a mutiny that Obama was believed to support.

  The Post hired London-based forensic lip reader Jeremy Freeman, who was born deaf and has served as a University College London-certified expert witness for litigants, police, and journalists for 16 years, according to the report.

  That said, Freema also says he detected “no tension” between Obama and Biden.

  Biden spokesman Andrew Bates laughed in the Post‘s face, saying “A ‘lip reading expert’? Did your usual right-wing soothsayer have their out-of-office up? Only President Biden and President Obama know what they discussed, but this certainly wasn’t it.”

  An Obama source told the outlet: “Only President Obama and President Biden know what they discussed yesterday. Any assertion otherwise is ridiculous.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/17/2024 – 21:20

• North Carolina County Democratic Chair Resigns After Removing Trump Campaign Signs
  North Carolina County Democratic Chair Resigns After Removing Trump Campaign Signs

  Authored by Stephen Katte via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The chair of the Moore County Democratic Party in North Carolina has resigned after being arrested for removing 2024 campaign signs supporting Republican presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump.

  

  In an Oct. 11 statement, the Moore County Sheriff’s Office said that a deputy working in the West End area observed Lowell Evan Simon removing campaign signs from the roadside along Seven Lakes Drive in the West End area.

  “The deputy, who was responding to an unrelated call at the time, later followed up at Simon’s residence, where the signs were found in his vehicle,” the sheriff’s office said. “Simon admitted to removing the signs, which were then recovered and returned to their original owner.”

  A warrant for Simon’s arrest was issued for two counts of misdemeanor larceny of political signs. He was later released under a written promise to appear in Moore County District Court on Oct. 30.

  Removal or theft of campaign signs violates North Carolina law protecting the lawful placement of political signs during an election cycle. Violating this law is a Class 3 misdemeanor, punishable by up to 30 days in jail, $500 in fines, and up to a year of probation.

  In an Oct. 15 statement, the Moore County Democratic Party said Simon, 68, “offered an apology for his actions, as well as his resignation,” both of which were accepted.

  “While we appreciate the hard work and dedication he has shown to the Democratic Party and the community, the Moore County Democratic Party cannot and will not condone the tampering of political signs or any other illegal activity,” the party said in a statement. “We believe in the importance of freedom of expression and speech, and hope that local law enforcement will continue to enforce such laws that protect those freedoms fairly and without bias across party lines.”

  Simon, also a candidate for the state House of Representatives, told local radio station WRL that he removed the signs because they were placed in front of his own, obscuring them to passersby. He said the ongoing issue caused him to act out in a moment of weakness.

  “My worse angels got the better of me and I removed the signs,” he said. “I shouldn’t have done that. I didn’t do it in the stealth of night or anything. I did it when it was 5 o’clock in the afternoon.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/17/2024 – 20:55

• US CBP Agents Halt Some DJI Drone Imports Over 'Forced Labor' Concerns 
  US CBP Agents Halt Some DJI Drone Imports Over ‘Forced Labor’ Concerns 

  Chinese drone manufacturer SZ DJI TECHNOLOGY CO LTD., commonly known by many pilots as “DJI,” is the world’s largest drone maker. It produces billions of dollars worth of drones each year, which end up in the hands of US consumers, government agencies, and/or on the modern battlefield in Eastern Europe. 

  DJI is a privately held company. It has received funding from state-owned enterprises in China and is classified as a “Chinese military company” by the US Department of Defense, according to the think tank Uyghur Human Rights Project, adding it supplies more than half of all drones in the US and is the most recognizable drone brand among consumers. 

  

  However, a new report from Reuters says the popular drone brand has faced difficulties importing various drone models into the US after the US Customs and Border Protection used the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA). 

  DJI notified US importers via a letter that the CBP stopped some drone imports from entering the US because CBP agents were verifying documentation that the drones were in good standing with UFLPA. In other words, border agents were making sure the drones were not produced by forced labor in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of China. 

  The letter told importers that the action appeared to be “part of a broader initiative by the Department of Homeland Security to scrutinize the origins of products, particularly in the case of Chinese-made drones,” adding that the US government’s claims are “unsubstantiated and categorically false, but the law gives them the authority to withhold goods without any tangible evidence.”

  Data from Sayari, a top counterparty and supply chain risk intelligence provider, shows DJI has seven major risk factors. It has exposure to a Xinjiang-based entity with forced labor concerns. 

  

  “The entity possibly owns (minority, majority, or wholly) a Xinjiang-based entity up to 3 hops away via direct shareholding relationships with 10% or more controlling interest, including beneficial owner, owner, shareholder, partner, subsidiary, or branch. Applicable to entities globally,” Sayari noted in the DJI profile. 

  

  DJI products are also widely used by US government agencies. US lawmakers have sounded the alarm (read: Senators Introduce Bill To Blacklist Chinese Drones In The US) on the widespread use of these drones by consumers and government agencies, warning these unmanned systems are national security threats.  

  Meanwhile, state-run Chinese media outlet Global Times spoke with Lü Xiang, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, about the incident first reported by Reuters, criticizing Washington for “adopting the ridiculous and discriminatory UFLPA to crack down on the drone maker.” 

  Xiang told GT, “By doing so, the Biden government may aim to protect the US dronemaking industry. However, the unreasonable move by the US could spark further concerns worldwide over future China-US relations.” 

  What drone industry is the Biden admin protecting for consumers? We can’t name one affordable US-based drone company that is as good or exceeds DJI in performance. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/17/2024 – 20:30

• Election 2024: Those Who Lecture Versus Those Tired Of Being Lectured
  Election 2024: Those Who Lecture Versus Those Tired Of Being Lectured

  Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

  The election is finally shaping up to be not only liberal Democrat Harris versus conservative Republican Trump.

  

  Instead, it has become a larger contest between those who talk down to their fellow Americans and those who are increasingly sick and tired of being lectured.

  How smart is it, for example, for Harris supporters to claim nonstop that ex-president Trump is a fascist dictator—and thus, by extension, those also who vote for him?

  Women voters poll about 53-5 percent for Kamala Harris. Trump enjoys a similar, although likely somewhat smaller, majority margin of male voters.

  Yet Harris – along with campaign surrogates Barack Obama and Bill Clinton – has been lecturing both black and white male voters nonstop that they are misled.

  Or they supposedly suffer from false consciousness – as if they have no clue that Harris and her progressive agenda are really in their own self-interest.

  Such haughtiness reached a zenith when Harris ran ads of actors costumed as supposedly working-class men. They voiced scripted talking points to prove that “real” men are progressive Harris supporters.

  But the actors were so patently ridiculous, their canned lines so unreal, that most viewers likely thought the ads were run by Trump himself—to show how arrogant, out-of-touch elites must imagine how the so-called “clingers” and “deplorables” think and talk.

  The Trump campaign also tries all sorts of strategies to win over women voters, from promising to rectify the Biden-Harris hyperinflation to reducing spiraling crime in towns and cities.

  But one method they avoid is claiming women are ignorant of their real self-interest and deluded by Harris—accurately assuming that a candidate does not win voters by belittling their intelligence.

  Harris and Obama both dressed down black men, claiming they are especially culpable for not voting en masse for Harris—even though a far higher percentage of black males will vote for Harris than for Trump.

  This hectoring the electorate on its supposed ignorance or moral shortcomings has become a Harris campaign trademark.

  To Harris, objecting to 10-12 million foreign nationals entering the company illegally without background checks during the Biden-Harris administration is supposedly a sign of a lack of compassion.

  And claiming that a current declining rate of illegal immigration should allay voters’ supposed paranoias utterly ignores the millions of illegal aliens who were all but welcomed in by Biden-Harris before the 2024 election cycle.

  Voters are also talked down to ad nauseam that they do not appreciate the Biden-Harris economy given the rate of inflation is falling.

  True. But most voters go shopping in a manner politicians do not.

  So, they resent such top-down sermons. They know best that prices for staple foods, fuel, insurance, and housing have spiked by some 20-30 percent since 2021—and stayed astronomically high.

  Currently, the auto industry is in crisis. Its huge inventory of electric voters sits unwanted and unsold. Harris and the left, remember, mandated all sorts of EV standards in their war against the internal combustion engine.

  Then the proverbial people revolted against the comparatively limited range of EVs and the difficulty in finding accessible and quick-charging stations.

  So, the free market and consumer demand ignored the increasingly strident lectures.

  Likewise, Harris pontificated that crime that had spiked in 2021-2023 is now not all that bad.

  But voters know all too well that their major cities are now unsafe. They sense one reason this year that crime is not soaring as it was two years ago is because it had gotten so bad that any further commensurate increases would have made life utterly unlivable.

  The Harris campaign was further hurt by past videos that keep popping up of Harris lecturing voters about how they either must think correctly or remain cluelessly selfish or ignorant.

  So, a recent clip surfaced on Columbus Day 2021 of a Vice President Harris lecturing America about Western civilization’s “shameful” sins in discovering the new world.

  Another video reveals Harris warning the country in 2020 on national television that the massive post-George Floyd demonstrations—that had turned violent and deadly—were not and should not stop, as if the country had to pay collective penance for its sins.

  This 2024 race may be becoming analogous to an October 1980 teachable moment.

  Then a preachy and sanctimonious incumbent Jimmy Carter—ahead in the final October polls over challenger Ronald Reagan—finally turned off voters for good.

  The previous underdog Reagan won in a landslide for a variety of reasons. But certainly, one explanation was that the electorate had finally collectively shrugged their weariness. They were sick and tired of Carter’s downer lectures about how they were wrong and culpable.

  Reagan, however, reminded voters that America was better than all the alternatives, needed not be perfect to be good, and had nothing to apologize for.

  The same contrast will likely determine the election of 2024.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/17/2024 – 20:05

• Yemen Overtakes Afghanistan As The World's "Least Peaceful" Nation
  Yemen Overtakes Afghanistan As The World’s “Least Peaceful” Nation

  The Global Peace Index is a scoring system adopted by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP).

  It identifies and measures 23 different metrics that drive peace in a country.

  Every year the non-partisan group ranks 163 countries based on factors such as military expenditure, weapons imports and exports, political terror scale, deaths from internal and external conflict, nuclear and heavy weapons, perceptions of criminality, homicide rate, political instability, violent crime, and demonstrations, among others.

  Yemen is the least peaceful country in the world in the 2024 GPI, followed by Sudan, South Sudan, Afghanistan, and Ukraine. This is the first year that Yemen has been ranked as the least peaceful country in the world, with the country having fallen 24 places in the rankings since the inception of the index.

  

  Source: @JuliePeasley

  The gap between the most and least peaceful countries in the world is now wider than it has been at any point in the last 16 years.

  Compared to 2008, the 25 most peaceful countries were one per cent more peaceful in 2024, while the 25 least peaceful countries were 7.5 per cent less peaceful.

  The report finds that many of the conditions that precede major conflicts are higher than they have been since the end of the Second World War.

  There are currently 56 active conflicts, the most since the end of Second World War, and with fewer conflicts being resolved, either militarily or through peace agreements.

  The number of conflicts that ended in a decisive victory fell from 49 per cent in the 1970s to nine per cent in the 2010s, while conflicts that ended through peace agreements fell from 23 per cent to four per cent over the same period.

  Conflicts are also becoming more internationalised, with 92 countries now engaged in a conflict beyond their borders, the most since the inception of the GPI in 2008.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/17/2024 – 19:40

• Grand Jury Indicts New Hampshire Supreme Court Justice Over Allegations Of Case Interference
  Grand Jury Indicts New Hampshire Supreme Court Justice Over Allegations Of Case Interference

  Authored by Stephen Katte via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A New Hampshire Supreme Court Associate has been indicted by a grand jury for allegedly trying to interfere in an open investigation of her husband.

  

  In an Oct. 16 statement from the New Hampshire Department of Justice, Attorney General John Formella said the Merrimack County Grand Jury had indicted Justice Anna Barbara Hantz Marconi for two felonies and five misdemeanors.

  All the charges relate to her alleged attempts to interfere with the criminal investigation into her husband, Geno Marconi.

  “The decision to charge a sitting Justice of the New Hampshire Supreme Court was not made lightly, and it comes after careful and thoughtful deliberation,” Formella said.

  “No person is above the law, and the evidence in this case required investigation and presentation to the grand jury.”

  According to the New Hampshire Department of Justice, Hantz Marconi has been charged with two Class B felonies, one count of attempt to commit improper influence, and one count of criminal solicitation of improper influence.

  She is also charged with five Class A misdemeanors, two counts of criminal solicitation of misuse of position, one count of criminal solicitation of official oppression, one count of official oppression, and one count of obstructing government administration.

  One of the indictments accuses Hantz Marconi of trying to solicit New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu to “improperly influence a member and/or members” of the New Hampshire Department of Justice while they were investigating her husband, who served as director for the New Hampshire Division of Ports and Harbors.

  She allegedly told the governor that the investigation was the result of “personal, petty and/or political biases.” She also allegedly said to Sununu that the investigation into her husband “needed to wrap up quickly because she was recused from important cases pending or imminently pending before the New Hampshire Supreme Court.”

  A conviction for a Class B felony is punishable by three to seven years in prison and a fine of up to $4,000. A Class A misdemeanor carries a sentence of up to 12 months behind bars and a fine of up to $2,000.

  At this stage, the New Hampshire Department of Justice said the investigation is complete and no one else has been accused of wrongdoing.

  The State Department of Justice also said that “the charges in these indictments are only allegations, and Justice Hantz Marconi is presumed innocent unless and until proven guilty.”

  Hantz Marconi has been on paid leave from the Supreme Court since July. Her husband has been on leave since April and is the subject of an investigation by Attorney General John Formella. The exact nature of the investigation has not been shared publically, and Geno Marconi has not been charged with any crime.

  Attorneys for Hantz Marconi have said their client is innocent and hasn’t violated any rules or laws. In a court filing, they plan to push for the charges to be dismissed.

  “We will fight the charges to the fullest extent permitted by the law, starting with motions to dismiss the case which we anticipate filing soon,” Hantz Marconi’s attorneys said.

  “We intend to fight these wrongful accusations in court, where the fight should occur, and not in the media.”

  The Epoch Times contacted the New Hampshire Department of Justice and Hantz Marconi for comment but received no replies by publication time.

  The Associated Press contributed to this report.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/17/2024 – 19:15

• Billionaires' Row Developer Buys Madison Ave. Office Tower For Condo Conversion
  Billionaires’ Row Developer Buys Madison Ave. Office Tower For Condo Conversion

  Whether to tear down old office towers or convert them into multi-family residential structures involves a lot of consideration—including real estate values and zoning codes—and it’s important to note that some towers are not structurally supportive for conversion. 

  Developers have hired engineers to examine old towers across Manhattan and other boroughs to carefully determine which ones are the least expensive to convert office floors into apartments.

  A 24-story office tower at 655 Madison Ave. was slated for demolition months ago as Manhattan’s skyline was about to lose another historic mid-century building. This was halted after one of Manhattan’s top developers, Extell, known for kickstarting the “Billionaires’ Row” towers near Central Park, bought the 310-foot-tall, 200,000-square-foot structure for $160 million, according to Bloomberg, citing public records documents. 

  People familiar with the matter told the financial publication that Tyko Capital, which Elliott Investment Management backs, provided Extell with financing for the acquisition of the tower. 

  

  Other developers are moving in on NYC towers for conversions:

  Last week, developer Vanbarton Group agreed to buy the Archdiocese of New York’s headquarters building on First Avenue, with plans to convert it into rental housing. That followed a deal in September to purchase a financial district tower for a similar office-to-housing project. -BBG

  Hybrid and remote working options have changed the landscape of work forever. This has left parts of the borough with massive gluts of towers – some of which are half abandoned.

  The Kastle ‘Back to Work Barometer’ index of NYC shows that the office tower vacancy rate has been hovering at 50% since the end of 2022. 

  

  The glut of towers sent the price of a one-million-square-foot Manhattan tower, once owned by UBS, crashing 97% from the $332.5 million valuation when the bank bought the building in 2006. 

  At the start of the year, Goldman analyst Jan Hatzius told clients that office tower prices had to move much lower to make financial sense for conversions.

  We spoke with the head of one notable property management firm in the Baltimore-DC metro area on Monday, who pointed out that some towers can’t even be given away due to high conversion costs. Let’s not forget that regional banks hold the bulk of tower debt. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/17/2024 – 18:50

• Kamala Harris Celebrates Hamas Chief's Killing, After Loudly Opposing Operation That Got Him
  Kamala Harris Celebrates Hamas Chief’s Killing, After Loudly Opposing Operation That Got Him

  Update(1600): Kamala Harris is hailing Israel’s killing of Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar. But last spring as the IDF was poised to expand its operations further south into Rafah, she was firmly against it. She had even warned of “consequences” (which of course never came). Throughout the more than year-long conflict the Biden-Harris administration has been speaking out of both sides of its mouth. The contradictions abound. Of course, the first and foremost contradiction is that the administration has admitted that large-scale massacres of civilians have taken place in Gaza, yet continues to arm America’s “closest Mideast ally” to the teeth and to the tune of billions.

  And now for the latest glaring contradiction, here’s Harris back in March:

  Israel could face “consequences” if it launches a ground assault on the city of Rafah in southern Gaza, the US vice president has warned.

  Vice President Kamala Harris said in an interview that aired on Sunday that it would be a “huge mistake” for the Israeli military to move on the city. The comments appear to underscore the continued strain in relations between Washington and Israel as the latter’s war in Gaza continues.

  Below: But here she is today, offering a celebratory congratulations to Israel on the Hamas chief’s death, while trying to appear ‘presidential’ as a potential future commander-in-chief…

  “Justice has been served, and the United States, Israel and the entire world are better off…”

  It takes real chutzpah for Kamala to celebrate the killing of Hamas’ leader Sinwar after opposing the Rafah mission. pic.twitter.com/dSJWyFP1Iq

  — Max Abrahms (@MaxAbrahms) October 17, 2024

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  One online commenter noted, “All she ever did was shout for a ceasefire, now she’s practically giving the US credit for defeating Hamas.”

  She during the remarks underscored that this “moment gives us an opportunity to finally end the war in Gaza.” So far it appears that Netanyahu sees it differently, having stated that he’ll pursue the return of the hostages by any means possible (while appearing to rule out negotiations or ceasefire).

  The IDF says this is video of Sinwar’s final moments alive, possibly after a fire-fight or his position was shelled:

  Raw footage of Yahya Sinwar’s last moments: pic.twitter.com/GJGDlu7bie

  — LTC Nadav Shoshani (@LTC_Shoshani) October 17, 2024

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  * * *

  Update(1250ET): Official confirmation is trickling in, ahead of a planned evening Netanyahu speech – where he’s expected to issue an official declaration of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s death during fighting in southern Gaza:

  ISRAEL FOREIGN MINISTER KATZ: HAMAS CHIEF SINWAR WAS KILLED IN GAZA

  Katz’s message to foreign leaders likely means a DNA match was made:

  In a message to dozens of foreign ministers around the world, Foreign Minister Israel Katz confirms that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed, becoming the first Israeli official to do so on the record.

  “The mass murderer Yahya Sinwar, who is responsible for the massacre and atrocities of October 7, was killed today by IDF soldiers,” says Katz, according to his office. “This is a great military and moral achievement for Israel and a victory for the entire free world against the evil axis of radical Islam led by Iran,” he continues.

  Katz says the killing “creates a possibility” for getting the hostages out immediately and for creating a Gaza free of Hamas and Iranian control.

  The top diplomat concluded, “Israel needs your support and assistance now more than ever to advance these important goals together.” US Congressional leaders are hailing news of the Hamas chief’s death, as he was considered the mastermind of the Oct.7 terror attacks.

  Axios correspondent Barak Ravid writes that “The IDF and Shin Bet confirm Sinwar’s body has been identified.”

  Below: graphic image issued by the IDF of Israeli troops standing over Sinwar’s body in Rafah…

  

  * * *

  In a huge breaking development, Israeli officials believe that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is dead. His alleged death may have been the result of an Israeli army attack on a building in Rafah, in southern Gaza. He oversaw the terror attacks of October 7 of last year and has remained Israel’s target #1.

  The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) which were operating in south Gaza were not specifically seeking to target him, but a body recovered at the scene suggests he may have been killed. Israeli sources and media are saying there is a “high likelihood” Sinwar has been killed.

  

  “At this stage, the identity of the terrorists cannot be confirmed,” the Israeli army and air force said in a joint statement as speculation mounts, also as gruesome photographs of a badly mangled body circulate widely online.

  The Washington Post writes that “A body, believed to be Sinwar’s, is being brought to Israel for DNA analysis, according to an Israeli official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.” According to more details:

  “We have his DNA from when he was in jail,” Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations Danny Danon said in an interview in September, at a previous moment when Israeli authorities believed they might have killed the Hamas leader. Danon said at the time that DNA analysis had been run on previous bodies, but that the testing had not been a match.

  According to Israeli journalist Nadav Eyal, “A reserve IDF force operating near Rafah spotted three armed men in a building, which was then hit by a drone/tank shell.”

  He describes that “A man resembling Sinwar and a Hamas regiment commander were found dead with a substantial amount of cash and weapons. This was part of the ongoing IDF operation, not a targeted assassination. No hostages are believed to have been present, but the ground is being inspected to confirm.”

  The Israeli police says its forensics team has identified Sinwar’s body according to pictures of his teeth that were taken by soldiers on the ground and compared to photos of his teeth Israel has. DNA test is still ongoing https://t.co/XNx5DlJ6Lk

  — Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) October 17, 2024

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  While Israel’s military is urging caution and patience amid all the rumors, if confirmed it would be a huge win for Israel, and major setback for Hamas:

  Army chief Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi vowed to “find him (Sinwar), attack him” and force Hamas to find another leader.

  Sinwar — Hamas’s leader in Gaza since 2017 — has not been seen since the October 7 attack, the deadliest in Israel’s history.

  It would certainly mark the biggest development of the conflict since the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31st of this year.

  Israeli army publishes footage of what it says is the operation that “led to the assassination of Yahya Sinwar”…

  الجيش الإسرائيلي ينشر صورا لما قال إنها للعملية التي “أدت لاغتيال يحيى السنوار” #غزة #قناة_العربية #فلسطين pic.twitter.com/XDlh3gjILp

  — العربية عاجل (@AlArabiya_Brk) October 17, 2024

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  A prominent open source analysis X account, OSINTdefender, writes that “One of the Images claimed to show the Body of Yahya Sinwar, following an Israeli Strike earlier today on Southern Gaza. With Facial Features as well as his Watch appearing to be an Exact Match to the Leader of Hamas.”

  Strong rumors of his death have been circulating in Arabic media as well.

  UPDATE: Israel is “close” to confirming Yahya Sinwar DNA, but “NOT FINAL” a source tells @AlMonitor . 2 Sources told Kan Sinwar has been killed. No comment from Hamas yet https://t.co/B5cMpTXFEr

  — Joyce Karam (@Joyce_Karam) October 17, 2024

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  Below is a quick review of his bio, via Al Jazeera:

  • Yahya Sinwar was born in the Khan Younis refugee camp in southern Gaza in 1962.
  • His family were refugees from Majdal Askalan, or what became Ashkelon, after the creation of Israel in 1948.
  • Sinwar spent 22 years of his life in Israeli prisons, for allegedly planning the abduction and killing of two Israeli soldiers in 1988. He was freed in 2011 as part of a prisoner exchange deal.
  • An Israeli government assessment of his years in detention described him as “ruthless” and “powerful”.
  • He used his time in jail to become fluent in Hebrew.
  • Sinwar succeeded Ismail Haniyeh as Hamas’s leader in Gaza in 2017. He became the group’s leader after Israel assassinated Haniyeh in July.
  • After the October 7 attack in southern Israel, which he is accused of masterminding, the Israeli military described him as a “dead man walking”.

  developing…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/17/2024 – 18:45

• Deep Dive: The Election Will Decide President Trump's Legal Fate
  Deep Dive: The Election Will Decide President Trump’s Legal Fate

  Authored by Mike Davis via Unfazed and Determined (emphasis ours),

  For years, the Biden-Harris Justice Department, partisan Democrat state and local prosecutors, and private citizens—often funded by wealthy anti-Trump donors—have waged an unprecedented lawfare campaign against President Trump. We set out to provide a detailed update on the mind-boggling number of cases. We focus on the four absurd criminal indictments because, of course, they could mean a lifetime of imprisonment for President Trump. We also detail important civil litigation Trump faces.

  

  Indictment No. 1: New York Nonsense

  In April 2023, Democrat Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who campaigned on getting Trump, obtained an indictment against Trump on 34 felony counts related to supposed business records violations. In late 2022, Bragg plucked Matthew Colangelo—the acting No. 3 political appointee in the Biden-Harris Justice Department—to become a key lieutenant in Manhattan to get Trump. Colangelo, in other words, left one of the most prestigious legal jobs in the country to become a local prosecutor. In the indictment, Bragg claimed that, just before the 2016 election, Trump—through attorney Michael Cohen—had agreed to pay a common nuisance complaint to two litigants, a common business practice. Then, Bragg claimed, Trump had falsified his personal business records to conceal the payments. Business records violations of this type are normally misdemeanors in New York for which the statute of limitations is only two years, but Bragg alleged that Trump had violated federal campaign finance laws. According to Bragg, Trump had been required to disclose these payments. His falsifying business records in furtherance of campaign finance violations was thus a felony—or, in Bragg’s absurd view, 34 felonies—because business records falsified to further a felony themselves constitute felony violations.

  Bragg’s case makes no sense. The payment occurred in late October 2016. Trump would not have had to disclose it to the Federal Election Commission (FEC)—assuming, of course, that he even would have had to disclose it at all—until weeks after the election. In other words, the failure to disclose it could not have impacted the election. As former FEC Commissioner Brad Smith (more on him in a bit) has articulated, payments like this—so-called hush-money or nondisclosure payments—are personal and not campaign expenses. The Justice Department indicted former North Carolina Senator John Edwards on the same theory, and the jury deadlocked. The Justice Department could not make the case that Edwards’ payment to his former lover, made while he was running in the 2008 presidential election, was a campaign matter rather than a personal one.

  Acting Manhattan Supreme Court (New York’s lowest state court) Justice Juan Merchan presided over Trump’s trial in April and May 2024. The judge had no business on the case. First off, he had donated in 2020 to President Biden—Trump’s 2020 and, at the time, 2024 opponent—in violation of New York’s judicial ethics guidelines. More importantly, Judge Merchan should have recused because of his daughter, Loren Merchan. Ms. Merchan is the president of Authentic Campaigns Inc. (Authentic), a Chicago-based firm that does digital consulting and marketing for Democrat candidates. One of Authentic’s clients during the 2024 cycle was Adam Schiff, the deranged anti-Trump U.S. House representative who is running for a vacant U.S. Senate seat from California. When Bragg announced his indictment of Trump, Schiff—while working with Authentic—sent out a fundraising email touting the indictment. The Senate Majority PAC, another Authentic client that works to elect Democrats to the Senate, sent out a similar fundraising email based on the indictment. Schiff and the Senate Majority PAC combined have raised well over $100 million since the emails. It is impossible to say how much the emails themselves generated, but the point is that Judge Merchan’s daughter Loren’s clients have used the case to fundraise. The more donations come in, the more chance there is for Authentic to profit.

  Judge Merchan should have dismissed the case; instead, he let it go to trial. He refused to allow Brad Smith, the former FEC commissioner, to testify about the intricacies of campaign finance laws. Smith would have explained why the campaign finance claim makes no sense. Judge Merchan did, however, allow the testimony of two of President Trump’s former White House aides—Hope Hicks and Madeleine Westerhout—regarding communications with Trump while he was President over the payments. The prosecution referred to this testimony as “devastating” in its closing argument because, the prosecutor claimed, it corroborated Cohen’s testimony that Trump had ordered the payments. The jury found Trump guilty on the 34 counts; Bragg had charged each entry as a separate felony. Trump faces up to 136 years in prison. Judge Merchan scheduled sentencing for July 11, 2024, but a dramatic development changed the game.

  On July 1, 2024, the United States Supreme Court ruled that presidents are absolutely immune from criminal prosecution for core official acts and at least presumptively immune for other official acts. This ruling stemmed from Trump’s indictment in the District of Columbia (more details on that later). While the alleged payments in Bragg’s case may not be official acts, the Supreme Court crucially held that a president’s internal deliberations with aides—even about unofficial acts—are inadmissible in a criminal case concerning those unofficial acts. As such, the testimony of Hicks and Westerhout—the “devastating” testimony, according to the prosecution—never should have happened.

  Trump’s team immediately moved for a mistrial. Judge Merchan stated that he would rule by September 6 on the motion and go ahead with the sentencing, if necessary, on September 18. On September 6, however, Judge Merchan postponed a ruling on the mistrial motion until November 12 and the sentencing, if necessary, until November 26. Under this schedule, both will occur after the November 5 election. Based on old and new evidence, however, Judge Merchan should not rule on the case. On August 20, 2024, Vice President Kamala Harris filed her first FEC report as the presumptive Democrat candidate for the presidency. On Form 3P, line 23, a little-noticed but explosive disbursement appears: a $468 payment to Authentic for website hosting services. The Biden campaign had used Amazon to host its website prior to his leaving the race on July 21. Within days, the Harris campaign hired Authentic; the disbursement date is July 30. This means that Judge Merchan’s daughter, Authentic’s president, has a direct business relationship with Trump’s main opponent for the presidency while Judge Merchan is making rulings that could profoundly impact the election.

  Indictment No. 2: Madness at Mar-a-Lago

  When he was about to leave office, President Trump declassified many records and kept personal copies. This is similar to what former President Bill Clinton did when he retained copies of audiotapes of material, including classified information, related to the presidency. When a group sought these tapes as presidential records, U.S. District Judge Amy Berman Jackson of the District of Columbia held that President Clinton had exercised his discretion to retain the records as personal records. This suit arose from the Presidential Records Act of 1978 (PRA). Under the PRA, presidents must turn over presidential records to the National Archives. The Archives usually returns many of these records for use in presidential libraries. Presidents also have the inherent power to declassify anything they wish in any manner they wish. While the government owns presidential records, the PRA gives a former President access to his presidential records anytime he wants.

  Trump and the National Archives battled for months over the custody of certain presidential records. During this time, the presidential records were at Trump’s Office of the Former President in Mar-a-Lago and under Secret Service protection. Trump, as a former president, is entitled to this protection for life. The DOJ intervened in the dispute and subpoenaed the records. In August 2022, FBI agents raided Mar-a-Lago in an early morning operation. The agents, heavily armed, seized truckloads of boxes of documents. Attorney General Merrick Garland signed off on the raid, as did U.S. Magistrate Judge Bruce Reinhart. Six weeks prior,  Judge Reinhart had recused himself from a lawsuit involving Trump and Hillary Clinton. The reason was obvious. In 2017, while a private lawyer, Reinhart had disparaged Trump in a Facebook post; in other words, Judge Reinhart had expressed animus against one of the parties in a case over which he was presiding. Yet, he signed the Mar-a-Lago raid warrant.

  Fast forward to November 18, 2022, when Garland plucked Jack Smith from The Hague to serve as Special Counsel in Trump’s federal cases. Smith had served as the head of DOJ’s Public Integrity Section and had secured a conviction against former Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell, a likely 2016 Republican candidate for the presidency or vice presidency. The 2014 conviction was based on the theory that, while in office, McDonnell had obtained gifts in exchange for holding meetings with people. DOJ never claimed that McDonnell had, say, signed a law in exchange for gifts. In 2016, the Supreme Court unanimously rejected this laughable theory. What McDonnell had done may have been tawdry, but it was not a crime. The damage had been done, however, as McDonnell was out of commission as a political force.

  The Senate never confirmed Smith; Garland simply picked him, claiming that Smith would serve independently since Trump had announced his candidacy for the presidency earlier that month. In June 2023, Smith secured an indictment against Trump and two others on charges of willfully retaining and mishandling classified information, as well as obstruction of justice. Smith claimed that Trump and his aides had tried to hide documents after the subpoena. Judge Aileen Cannon of the Southern District of Florida received the random case assignment immediately after the indictment. Smith never sought her recusal during her 13 months on the case.

  One of these motions concerned the constitutionality of Smith’s appointment. Smith, Trump argued, had power equivalent to a U.S. Attorney. These officials require Senate confirmation, which Smith never obtained. Judge Cannon agreed, holding that Smith’s appointment violated the Appointments and Appropriations Clauses of the Constitution. She cited a concurrence by Justice Clarence Thomas in the presidential immunity decision. The Supreme Court has never determined whether a special counsel like Smith is constitutional. In 1974, Leon Jaworski served as the special prosecutor in the investigation of President Richard Nixon. While that case wound up at the Supreme Court, neither party briefed nor argued the constitutionality of Jaworski’s appointment.

  Smith has appealed Judge Cannon’s decision to the Eleventh Circuit. Briefing should be finished by mid-October, and oral argument likely will occur after the election. Smith has not sought Judge Cannon’s recusal; however, a Soros-funded leftist group called Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) has. In its friend-of-the-court brief, CREW—a nonparty who has no standing to seek recusal—claimed that Judge Cannon has been biased in favor of Trump. CREW never filed such a brief with respect to Judge Reinhart. CREW whined about the “sluggish” pretrial pace, but CREW does not have the right to a speedy trial. That right belongs exclusively to the defendant under the Sixth Amendment. It is unclear if the court will accept CREW’s brief, and we have urged the three-judge panel to decline to do so.

  CREW’s brief was the culmination of a pattern of absurd attacks against Judge Cannon. Leftist legal pundits are angry that she has not jumped whenever Smith has barked. In a New York Times story, for instance, anonymous sources claimed that Chief Judge Cecilia Altonaga had suggested that Judge Cannon step aside so that the case could be moved to Miami where there was a secure facility to view classified documents. One since has been built at the courthouse where Judge Cannon sits in Fort Pierce. Another judge supposedly made the absurd suggestion that Judge Cannon should let a more experienced judge handle the case. There is no experience requirement for a judge to preside over a case, and were Judge Cannon to step aside and be replaced by, say, a less experienced Biden appointee, the experience complaints would evaporate in no time.

  The most egregious campaign against Judge Cannon came from Glenn Kirschner, a former federal prosecutor and terminal sufferer of Trump Derangement Syndrome. Kirschner posted on his YouTube channel a guide for his followers to file ethics complaints against Judge Cannon with the Eleventh Circuit. Over a thousand of these pests deluged the court, and it got so bad that Chief Judge William Pryor directed the court clerk to stop accepting these complaints because the limited court staff were overwhelmed. This unprecedented campaign against Judge Cannon, based on absurd arguments, is a grave threat to judicial independence that so far has failed and must never succeed.

  Indictment No. 3: D.C. Derangement

  Smith, who has no business serving because his appointment was unconstitutional, was not remotely finished with Trump after the Florida indictment. In August 2023, he obtained an unprecedented separate indictment against Trump in the District of Columbia over the events surrounding the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot. Notably, even rabid partisan Smith did not charge Trump with having incited an insurrection, the absurd claim used to attempt to disqualify Trump from the ballot, as detailed later. Instead, Smith charged Trump with conspiracy to violate the rights of voters by depriving them of their lawfully cast votes. Smith also claimed that Trump had defrauded the United States because, Smith alleged, Trump knew he had lost the election but spread the lie that he had won in order to stay in power. Smith also charged Trump with obstruction of an official proceeding, the counting of the electoral votes in Congress. Smith intruded upon internal DOJ deliberations, inserting their contents into the indictment. Trump had asked the DOJ to investigate election fraud, and Assistant Attorney General Jeffrey Clark had suggested sending an advisory to state legislatures–a draft never sent–that they should conduct their own investigations and, if appropriate, appoint alternate electors. Pundits have called these “fake electors,” but they in reality were alternatives who could have voted for Trump were the Biden electors rejected if fraud had emerged.

  D.C. U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan, an Obama appointee, received the case assignment in August 2023 and set a March 4, 2024, trial date. This scheduling was absurd. There were millions of pages of discovery and thousands of hours of video to pour over. The goal was obvious: get Trump before a virulently anti-Trump D.C. jury and secure a quick conviction before the election. At prior sentencings, Judge Chutkan had made critical comments regarding Trump, though she referred to him as one person who had not been charged; she did not utter his name. Smith had proposed an even more ridiculous trial date: January 2, 2024. Judge Chutkan ruled against Trump in pretrial motion after pretrial motion, culminating in her December denial of his motion to dismiss the case on the basis of presidential immunity. Trump claimed that he had taken official acts that constituted the basis of Smith’s indictment. Those acts were immune from prosecution, and the indictment must fail. Judge Chutkan categorically rejected this claim, holding that presidents are not entitled to immunity for official acts.

  At this point, Trump appealed to the D.C. Circuit, and Smith’s train began to derail. Since the issue involved immunity, Trump’s appeal halted all pretrial proceedings before Judge Chutkan. Smith, desperate to obtain his conviction before the election, sought review by the Supreme Court even before the D.C. Circuit had ruled. His justification was insulting. He claimed that the nation had a compelling interest in resolving this issue. The nation is not entitled to a speedy trial; the defendant is. It would make no difference legally whether the issue of immunity was resolved in 2024 or 2025. The justices rejected Smith’s pathetic political ploy and allowed the appeal to proceed as it otherwise would have.

  Without justification, the D.C. Circuit expedited briefing and oral argument on Trump’s appeal. In February 2024, a three-judge panel rejected Trump’s immunity claim, holding that, while presidents might have immunity for some acts, Trump did not for his. The judges, in other words, created a Trump-only immunity rule. The panel also rejected concerns that prosecutors would abuse power to indict a former president, reasoning that Trump’s being prosecuted in the normal course of the criminal justice system showed that the prosecution was proper. This reasoning makes no sense, as Chief Justice John Roberts later pointed out at oral argument. After the D.C. Circuit’s ruling, Trump sought Supreme Court review, which the justices granted in March. Oral arguments occurred on April 25, and the Court ruled on July 1.

  This timeline infuriated leftist pundits, who whined that the Court was not moving fast enough. To put this in perspective, Trump was indicted in August 2023, and a pretrial appeal wound its way through the federal system and was resolved in 11 months. That timing is extraordinarily fast. For example, Joseph Fischer, a former police officer, was indicted on November 10, 2021, for, among other things, obstruction of an official proceeding concerning the Capitol riot. Judge Carl Nichols dismissed that count, the DOJ appealed and won at the D.C. Circuit, and the Supreme Court granted Fischer’s petition for review. In June 2024, the justices ruled in Fischer’s favor, holding that the obstruction statute did not apply. More than two and a half years had elapsed between the time of Fischer’s indictment until the Supreme Court’s decision, more than double the time it took to resolve Trump’s pretrial appeal. The only reason for complaints about timing was an improper one: the election. Like Smith, leftist pundits wanted Trump convicted and locked away in a cage during the campaign.

  The Supreme Court gave Trump (and the presidency) a significant victory in the immunity decision. Core official acts like pardons or bill vetoes are, the justices held, absolutely immune. Other official acts are at least presumptively immune. For instance, the Court cited Trump’s conversations with Vice President Mike Pence concerning the certification of electors. As President of the Senate, Pence presided over the certification, and President Trump wanted him to reject several slates of electors. Pence refused, and Congress certified the election results. The justices also struck portions of Smith’s indictment concerning Trump’s communications with the DOJ, holding that those deliberations between the president and DOJ constituted core presidential acts. The Court also ruled that a president’s motives cannot be considered in determining whether acts are entitled to immunity. Presidents also have broad leeway in communicating with the American people. As such, many public statements of a president constitute official acts. In the indictment, Smith cited many of Trump’s social media posts concerning the election as evidence of criminality.

  The Court remanded the case to Judge Chutkan to apply its immunity test. Judge Chutkan had made no findings of fact; rather, she had rejected Trump’s immunity claim on its face. Even though Fischer’s case, which we referenced earlier, did not directly involve Trump, the Court’s ruling well could. The obstruction statute on which Trump and Fischer were indicted was a post-Enron law dealing with the destruction of evidence in cases. Its 20-year maximum sentence has been a powerful weapon for the DOJ to induce January 6 defendants to plead guilty to lesser charges. All but one district judge in D.C., Judge Carl Nichols, allowed the DOJ to get away with this statutory abuse and political persecution. In light of the Supreme Court’s decision, however, many defendants will need to be resentenced without the obstruction charge. Judge Chutkan will also need to decide if those two counts must be dismissed as to Trump–two of four of Jack Smith’s bogus charges.

  On September 5, 2024, Judge Chutkan held the first status hearing on Trump’s case since the pause in proceedings last December. Smith made an extraordinary proposal. He wanted to file an opening brief on the issue of immunity, after which the defense could respond and Smith could reply. Even more astoundingly, Judge Chutkan agreed to this. Instead of permitting the defense to file a motion to dismiss the superseding indictment that Smith had obtained last month, the normal procedure in such a case, Judge Chutkan permitted prosecutors to have the first and last word on the immunity dismissal issue. All briefing should be complete by October 29, a week before the election. Smith has indicated that he will submit evidence that has not yet become public. This submission will occur while voters are casting ballots in mail and early voting. It is a blatant effort to influence the election.

  Judge Chutkan has stated that she will not take the election into account in her scheduling decisions. Her rulings themselves cast doubt on that assertion, however. She rushed to schedule a trial and made no findings of fact concerning immunity. This lack of fact finding elicited justified criticism from the Supreme Court. She then, in what is essentially a motion to dismiss an indictment, allowed the prosecution to fire the first shot. It is plain that she is solidly against Trump.

  Because it is impossible for the D.C. case to go to trial before the election, Smith has tried to dent Trump through the filing of evidence presented to the grand jury in obtaining the superseding indictment. Judge Chutkan, who has discretion in managing a pretrial schedule, decided to allow this. The result was a bizarre 180-page long brief that was filed before the Trump team even had the chance to file a motion to dismiss. This is totally bizarre – and if the goal were to ultimately convict Trump at trial, Smith would never put all this information on the public record right now, due to the risks of tainting the jury pool. But it seems clear that Smith has decided that his prosecution is doomed, and so he will use this prosecution to provide fodder for hit pieces against President Trump in the run-up to the election. This is a totally improper use of the judicial system, but Judge Chutkan was happy to allow it.

  Smith has indicated that, even if Trump wins, he will continue to pursue the case. Trump’s acting attorney general must fire Jack Smith immediately, shutdown his office, and dismiss with prejudice all these bogus federal indictments against Trump. It is crucial to remember that these cases should not be proceeding and never should have begun. They are not the result of earnest prosecutors who desire to uphold the law regardless of politics; rather, they are the product of politically motivated lawfare designed to take out an opposing party’s presidential candidate.

  Indictment No. 4: The Fulton Fani Fiasco

  In August 2023, Fulton County, Georgia District Attorney Fani Willis obtained an indictment against Trump similar to Smith’s D.C. indictment–but even more bizarre. Willis alleged that Trump had violated Georgia’s racketeer influenced and corrupt organizations (RICO) statute. According to Willis, Trump had sought to overturn a valid election in Georgia through illegal means. She cited a recorded call on which Trump had told Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to find 11,000 votes, the approximate margin of Trump’s deficit at the time. According to Willis, Trump wanted votes fabricated. Willis also charged that Trump had engaged in a fake electors scheme to replace Biden’s slate of Georgia electors with an alternate Trump slate.

  Willis did not just indict Trump. She indicted 18 defendants, including Trump attorneys John Eastman, Jenna Ellis, Sidney Powell and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. These lawyers, Willis claimed, had submitted fraudulent court filings in furtherance of the RICO conspiracy. Willis did not stop there, however, indicting David Shafer, chairman of the Georgia Republican Party. She even went so far as to indict Jeffrey Clark, the former U.S. Assistant Attorney General, and former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows.

  Willis’s case seemed to be humming along nicely until January 2024. At that point, one of Trump’s codefendants filed a motion seeking the recusals of Willis and Nathan Wade, her top special prosecutor. Willis paid Wade nearly $700,000 for his services on Trump’s case. The motion alleged that the two had been having a secret affair while the case was pending and while Wade was married. Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee held a lengthy evidentiary hearing on the motion, over the vehement protests of Willis’s underlings, who demanded that the lawyer who had filed the motion be sanctioned.

  Instead of a garden-variety evidentiary hearing, what occurred was the courtroom version of Jerry Springer. In a nationally broadcast proceeding, Wade and Willis testified and admitted to the affair. While Wade was relatively calm, Willis melted down. She was so out of control that Judge McAfee admonished her to stop her antics. Willis and Wade admitted that Wade had paid for lavish vacations, including a Caribbean excursion. They also claimed that Willis had reimbursed Wade, but they provided no documents to support this assertion. Instead, they told the judge, Willis had given Wade cash. Willis claimed that she keeps massive piles of cash at her house, including leftover campaign contributions, that she uses to pay expenses. It is unclear why Willis did not just use the cash to pay for the trips themselves.

  Judge McAfee split the baby. He ruled that Willis could remain on the case, but only if Wade resigned. Wade resigned the afternoon of the ruling. The judge criticized Willis for her conduct, highlighting her speech at a predominantly African American church in which she had claimed that the charges against her were racially motivated. Judge McAfee characterized Willis’s and Wade’s testimony as having “the odor of mendacity.” Trump and many of his codefendants immediately appealed to the Georgia Court of Appeals, which will hear oral arguments in December. The court must rule by next March, but the losing side can appeal to the Georgia Supreme Court. That court has discretion to hear the appeal. If it chooses to hear the case, a decision may not occur until 2026. If Willis and her office are disqualified, a committee will assign the case to another district attorney in a different county, who might elect to drop it.

  Even if Willis is not ultimately disqualified, the case is a long way from trial. The reason concerns presidential immunity. Like he did with respect to the D.C. indictment, President Trump has moved to dismiss the Georgia case on the theory that the indicted acts are immune from criminal prosecution. Judge McAfee has not touched that issue. The immunity ruling came in July; by that time, proceedings before Judge McAfee were on hold because of the Willis disqualification appeal. When and if Judge McAfee rules, that decision can be appealed through the Georgia courts and ultimately up to the United States Supreme Court. Also, if Trump wins the presidency, the case surely will be paused while he serves his term. Meadows also has sought to remove his case to federal court, claiming that his acts were official and thus subject to the removal statute. The district judge and Eleventh Circuit ruled against him, and he has sought Supreme Court review. The issue would become moot if Willis is disqualified and a new prosecutor drops the case.

  The case should be dropped, but the case never should have begun. Willis and Wade used it as a trough to finance their luxurious lifestyle, costing the taxpayers of Fulton County nearly $700,000 in the process. Wade’s billing for his services was outrageous. On one day, he billed 24 hours at $250 an hour. If true, Wade did not stop to eat. Take a shower. Go for a walk for a few minutes to stretch his legs after sitting at a desk and working his fingers to the bone. Catch some sleep. He just worked nonstop, he claimed. This assertion is insulting to the intelligence of any reasonable person. Wade also billed Fulton County taxpayers $4,000 for two meetings with Biden-Harris White House officials before bringing the unprecedented indictment against Trump, their political opponent. The first occurred in Athens, Georgia, with the White House Counsel. The second occurred in Washington, where Wade apparently went to the White House. We have no idea what discussions occurred between Wade and White House officials, but it is plain that there was coordination between the Biden-Harris White House and state prosecutors. Since Wade billed Fulton County, whatever he was doing pertained to Trump’s case. Wade also never should have been hired to prosecute a RICO conspiracy, one of the most complicated indictments a prosecutor can pursue. Willis cited Wade’s service as a municipal court judge, but that in no way qualified him to prosecute a case of this complexity or magnitude. He had never even tried a felony case. Wade also laughably claimed that, even if Trump is President, he can be tried criminally in Georgia during his term. This assertion alone illustrates just how unqualified Wade was to serve on the case. Thanks to their astonishing foolishness and arrogance, Wade and Willis might well find themselves as criminal defendants either in Georgia or a federal court in some other venue while Trump goes free and serves four more years in the White House.

  * * *

  The criminal lawfare that President Trump has had to face is, by itself, shocking, but it does not come close to capturing the magnitude of the lawfare campaign. Civil actions have sought to bankrupt Trump, prevent him from doing business, and even remove him from the presidential ballot. The last effort not only was an attack on Trump; it amounted to an attempt to disenfranchise the tens of millions of Americans who wish to vote for him. Below is a history and update on several of these civil actions.

  Lawsuit No. 1: The Insurrection Rejection

  The National Park Service approved a permit for the so-called “Stop the Steal” rally on January 6, 2021. The purpose of this event was to protest the electoral certification of Biden’s victory that day in Congress, and President Trump spoke at the rally. In his speech, President Trump urged his supporters to “peacefully and patriotically” march to the Capitol.

  What happened at the Capitol that day was a riot. As Justice Alito pointed out at oral argument in Fischer v. United States, the case that stopped the Biden-Harris Justice Department from using the obstruction statute against January 6 defendants, “January 6 was very serious.” Police officers were assaulted, and the Capitol sustained damage. Some rioters even stole government property like computers from the offices of members of Congress. An officer died from natural causes; Trump was not, contrary to some delusional leftist claims, responsible for his death.

  January 6 was not, however, an insurrection. Shortly after the riot had subsided, leftists began plotting to end Trump’s potential 2024 presidential campaign early. Voters would not decide if he should resume the presidency; judges would. This plan centered around Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment, the Insurrection Clause. This provision holds that those who have previously taken an oath to support the Constitution of the United States and then engage in rebellion or insurrection against it shall be disqualified from holding further office, unless Congress removes the disability by a two-thirds vote. The Insurrection Clause was designed to keep former confederates from assuming office, such as being elected to the House of Representatives.

  Leftists claimed that Trump’s January 6 speech, which called for a peaceful march to the Capitol, constituted an insurrection. These authoritarians claimed that Trump had used violence to prevent the peaceful transfer of power. Were this view accepted, it would gut the First Amendment’s guarantee of freedom of speech. Phrases such as “fight like hell” would transform someone into an insurrectionist. When Trump announced his candidacy, leftists began filing lawsuits to strike him from ballots. Most failed, but Denver, Colorado District Judge Sarah Wallace decided to hold a trial on the issue. The judge then ruled that Trump had engaged in an insurrection but that he was not an officer of the United States and that the oath he had taken was not the same as the one articulated in the Insurrection Clause.

  On appeal, the Colorado Supreme Court agreed that Trump had engaged in an insurrection but reversed the trial court’s rulings with respect to the oath and Trump’s being an officer of the United States. The 4-3 majority on the all-Democrat-appointed court, including now-Chief Justice Monica Márquez, ordered Trump removed from the presidential primary ballot. This ruling, issued just before Christmas, sent shockwaves through the nation. Within a short time, Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, a radical Democrat who had not even been elected, decreed that Trump was an insurrectionist and removed him from the ballot. Soon after, Cook County Circuit Judge Tracie Porter in Chicago followed suit based on the ruling of the Colorado Supreme Court. The leftist lawfare was working to perfection. Trump was almost gone; there was just one more hurdle to overcome.

  Trump appealed the Colorado decision to the Supreme Court of the United States. On March 4, 2024, the day before Super Tuesday—the day on which many states have primaries and caucuses—the justices issued their decision. The Court unanimously–9-to-0–held that states have no authority to bar federal candidates from running for office based on the Insurrection Clause. A majority of the justices also held, as Chief Justice Salmon Chase had in Griffin’s Case (1869), that Congress must pass a statute for the Insurrection Clause to be enforceable; in other words, the Insurrection Clause is not self-executing. House Democrats have proposed such a law, but there is no chance that it will pass the Republican-controlled House. If Trump wins and Democrats take control of the House and Senate, however, such a law could pass next January before Trump’s inauguration. Otherwise, if Trump prevails, leftists cannot thwart his assuming the presidency by branding him as an insurrectionist.

  The events of the insurrection saga were unfathomable. Trump has never been convicted of insurrection. He has never even been charged with that offense. Jack Smith, as aggressive a prosecutor as there is and a rabid partisan to boot, has not even gone down that road, and Smith has indicted Trump for seemingly everything under the sun. Yet, a group of leftist lawyers and so-called scholars led by J. Michael Luttig, a retired judge appointed by President George H.W. Bush, who was passed over by President George W. Bush for elevation to the Supreme Court, cooked up a scheme based on a constitutional provision designed to guard against a return to power by members of the Confederacy. With the vigorous support of leftist groups like CREW, this cabal convinced a trial judge and a state supreme court to throw a major party’s candidate off the ballot. An unelected secretary of state snapped her fingers and declared this candidate an insurrectionist. It is highly likely that some leftist lower court federal judges would have gone along with this plan. While they have failed in many areas, President Biden and Vice President Harris have excelled at stocking several appellate courts with hardcore leftists. Only the Supreme Court of the United States saved democracy by stopping the audacious effort to disenfranchise tens of millions of voters. This shameful episode illustrates in the most stark way how the Supreme Court is the last safeguard against the unspeakable lawfare that President Trump has had to endure.

  Lawsuit No. 2: New York Nonsense, Big-Tish Style

  Alvin Bragg is not the only leftist New York prosecutor who has it out for Trump. Professor Alan Dershowitz of Harvard Law School wrote a book, Get Trump, in which he detailed the extraordinary efforts of the anti-Trump lawfare. The title was easy. Dershowitz did not make it up; it came from New York Attorney General Leticia James, a partisan Democrat who vowed to do just that in her campaign. She followed through, suing Trump for hundreds of millions of dollars. James claimed that Trump had defrauded many banks. James’s theory was that Trump had inflated the value of his assets to procure bank loans. A clause in the lending agreement instructed banks to do their own due diligence. These banks were some of the largest in the world, the most sophisticated of actors. One executive testified that Trump was “a whale,” meaning someone with whom banks wanted to deal because of his enormous brand. The banks reasoned that Trump was good for the money, and the banks received payment for the loans on schedule, in-full, on-time, and with interest. In other words, there was no victim of this supposed fraud.

  There was a trial in this case, but much of the deciding had already occurred. Democrat Manhattan Judge Arthur Engoron ruled, based on briefing, that Trump had somehow committed fraud. The statute in question, which deprives defendants of a jury trial, never had been used like this in its history. The trial was for the sole purpose of determining damages. In the end, Judge Engoron imposed approximately $455 million, including interest. He ordered Trump to pay the entire amount as a bond prior to appealing; otherwise, James could begin seizing his assets. The order also banned Trump and his sons from serving as officers of a New York corporation for several years. Trump appealed, and the New York Appellate Division lowered the bond to $175 million, still a gargantuan amount.

  Throughout the trial, Judge Engoron made it plain that he detested Trump, referring to him as “a bad guy” and repeatedly smirking during the proceedings. He imposed an unconstitutional gag order to prevent Trump from criticizing him. Judge Merchan imposed a similarly illegal order in the criminal trial that precludes Trump from mentioning the ties that Loren Merchan has to Biden, Harris and other Democrats. Judge Engoron’s clerk also made political donations in violation of New York judicial ethics guidelines, just like Judge Merchan. The case is currently awaiting a ruling by the Appellate Division, after which the losing side will surely seek review by the New York Court of Appeals. The oral argument strongly indicates the appellate judges see this case as legal lunacy.

  As prominent investor and Shark Tank host Kevin O’Leary pointed out, what Trump did was no different than what businesspeople do every day. No other businessperson has faced legal repercussions for such conduct. Recognizing that the decision against Trump may have inspired fear among other members of the business community that could cause a massive exodus from New York, Democrat New York Governor Kathy Hochul sought to quell fears by claiming that they did not need to worry; this was only about Trump. This assertion proves Trump’s point; he has been a target of lawfare. Members of the business community do indeed need to worry, however, for if New York can do this to Trump because of James’s vendetta, New York can do the same to any of them.

  Lawsuit No. 3: More January 6

  In June 2021, two officers with the Capitol Police—James Blassingame and Sidney Hemby—sued Trump for damages based on physical and emotional suffering as a result of the Capitol riot. The officers claimed that Trump’s words, including his plea to take back the country with strength and to “fight like hell” had incited the riot, even though he had urged supporters to march “peacefully” to the Capitol. Trump moved to dismiss the suit on the grounds that the actions alleged were official. Blassingame and Hemby claimed that the actions were not those of a president but rather those of a candidate seeking to advance his personal interests, mainly the goal of remaining in power. In February 2022, D.C. U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta, an Obama appointee, denied the motion. Trump appealed, and the D.C. Circuit issued its ruling in December 2023. There was neither expedited briefing nor oral argument.  Unlike the D.C. criminal case, the civil matter proceeded in the normal course. The appeals court held that there should be a discovery phase after which the district court should determine which of Trump’s acts were official and thus entitled to immunity versus which acts were personal and thus not so entitled.

  The concept of civil presidential immunity from private suits goes back to Nixon v. Fitzgerald (1982). There, the Supreme Court held that presidents are absolutely immune for civil actions based upon acts that concern even the outer perimeter of presidential duties. At oral argument in Trump’s D.C. criminal case, Justice Gorsuch spoke favorably of remanding for a test like that adopted by the D.C. Circuit in the suit by the Capitol officers. Trump’s counsel, D. John Sauer, agreed that such a remand would be proper. Judge Mehta has been undertaking that analysis since the D.C. Circuit’s remand, and the case will not go to trial before the election. Judge Mehta also denied a motion to dismiss the case on free speech grounds. If it goes to trial, Trump likely will lose in front of a D.C. jury. His only hope for salvation will come from appellate review. The D.C. Circuit did not review Judge Mehta’s First Amendment ruling.  Those kinds of decisions receive review after the conclusion of a trial. Immunity is different because, if a defendant is immune from civil or criminal liability, the defendant should not even face trial. As such, immunity decisions are immediately appealable. We should expect a massive judgment similar to or even greater than the $148 million that a rabid D.C. jury levied against Giuliani in a defamation suit brought over his claims of election fraud.

  When and if the case reaches the appellate phase, either the D.C. Circuit or, more likely, the Supreme Court should throw it out on First Amendment grounds. If Trump’s speech, where he never asked the crowd to be violent but rather urged a “peaceful” march to the Capitol, can constitute the basis for civil liability, the First Amendment would be a nullity. Tens of thousands of people attended the rally, heard the speech, and either went home or followed Trump’s request to march “peacefully” to the Capitol. In the insurrection case, the Supreme Court did not reach the First Amendment issue, but that ground alone should have ended the case. Just as one should not be branded an insurrectionist and disqualified from office based on a speech that never urged violence, one also should not incur a gigantic civil judgment for that speech.

  Lawsuit No. 4:  The Carroll Clown Show

  Author E. Jean Carroll claimed that Donald Trump had raped her in a New York department store dressing room in the mid-1990s. She did not specify a year, much less a date. In 2022, in a lawsuit financed in part by Democrat megadonor Reid Hoffman, Carroll sued Trump, first for defamation and then for the alleged sexual assault. Trump had called Carroll’s claim “a hoax” and denied having met her. While the defamation suit came first, the sexual-assault suit was the first to go to trial.

  This trial never should have occurred. In 2022, New York enacted a law called the Adult Survivors Act (ASA). The ASA revived all adult claims of sexual abuse for one year, regardless of whether the statute of limitations had expired. Suppose that a 75-year-old claims that another 75-year-old abused her in 1970, 54 years ago. According to the ASA, even though the civil statute of limitations expired half a century ago, that 75-year-old would have a year to bring this claim. Such a scheme is horrifying. People rely on statutes of limitations. After a certain number of years, a matter is no longer ripe for legal review. There are crimes like murder with no statute of limitations, but this lack of a limitation period has been in law for centuries. The ASA retroactively revived long-since dormant cases, and that is a whole different kettle of fish.

  The trial on the sexual assault fell into the hands of U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan, a Clinton appointee. The relationship between the hyperpartisan judge and Alina Habba, Trump’s lead lawyer, got so bad that Habba faced the threat of going to jail for contempt. The jury determined that Trump had not raped Carroll but that he had sexually abused her. The defamation case then went to trial before Judge Kaplan. This jury also found in favor of Carroll. The combined damages, including punitive damages, totaled over $90 million. Trump has appealed both verdicts. The Second Circuit Court of Appeals heard oral argument on the sexual assault verdict on September 6, the same day that Judge Merchan delayed the sentencing. The appeal dealt with many issues, including Judge Kaplan’s decision to permit the introduction of the so-called “Access Hollywood tape” and his having allowed testimony from a woman who claimed that Trump had groped her on an airplane in 1979. The defamation appeal is awaiting oral argument.

  Like the other lawfare episodes against Trump, this one is extraordinary in a horrifying way. Trump could not be expected to be able to provide a defense to a charge with no date and not even a year. There was no physical evidence like DNA or photographs of bruising to indicate the occurrence of a sexual assault, and no other witnesses could testify about the events of an unknown day or year. If a legislature can retroactively revive claims long barred by a statute of limitations, and if a jury believes an alleged victim’s testimony, a defendant could be out tens of millions of dollars. And if a defendant dares to defend himself by calling the charges, for instance, a hoax, he could be out tens of millions more thanks to a defamation suit. This scheme is so unjust that it offends basic notions of constitutional due process.

  The Stakes of the Election

  President Trump’s fate depends in large part on the election result. If Vice President Harris prevails, it is certain that Jack Smith will continue to prosecute Trump, unless the Supreme Court determines that his appointment is unconstitutional. At that point, however, the other political appointees in the Kamala-Walz Justice Department could resume control of the prosecution. Trump might prevail at trial before a reasonable jury in Florida, but his conviction before a highly biased D.C. jury would be a virtual certainty. There is also no reasonable doubt that Judge Chutkan would hammer him at sentencing. She has shown how ardently anti-Trump she is, and she also has been one of the most harsh sentencers of January 6 defendants. If she gets the chance, she will make sure that Trump rots in a cage for the rest of his life.

  A Trump victory in November would ensure that he would not go to prison based on Bragg’s case at least until 2029 if at all, if the appellate courts fail to stop this clearly illegal political persecution. Even though Trump does not have a criminal record, it is likely that, if given the chance, Judge Merchan would send him to Rikers Island, the notorious jail where prisoners await trial and those convicted serve short sentences. Judge Merchan’s daughter Loren would certainly raise a lot of money off that republic-ending travesty. If Trump prevails, it is doubtful that Judge Merchan would try to throw Trump in prison in the month and a half between the potential sentencing and the inauguration. If he were to act rashly, however, either a higher court in New York or the United States Supreme Court would almost certainly put a stop to his shenanigans.

  The Georgia appellate courts should end Fani Willis’ lawfare against Trump. If Trump wins the White House again, even if the case is not dismissed, Trump would not face trial until at least 2029. By that point, a new district attorney might decide to drop the case. The Georgia Court of Appeals hopefully will put an end to this and disqualify Willis, a decision that should be affirmed in short order by the Georgia Supreme Court. Given her disgraceful conduct, Willis has more than earned that remedy.

  If Vice President Harris prevails, the Supreme Court almost certainly will no longer be a safeguard against the anti-Trump lawfare. The Vice President has indicated that she is open to packing the Court with hardcore leftists who undoubtedly will be clones of Judges Merchan, Engoron and Chutkan. They will serve as rubber stamps for Smith, Bragg, James and Willis. Trump thus will spend the rest of his life in prison based on charges that never should have been brought. He also might face the lesser consequence of bankruptcy if a Supreme Court packed with leftists gives its blessing to the nearly half a billion dollars in judgments against him from New York courts.

  This election will decide whether the lawfare waged against President Trump for so many years and on so many fronts will be rewarded or punished. Several juries have rendered verdicts, and President Trump has appealed. In mere weeks, voters will deliver the most crucial verdict, and it is unappealable. President Trump’s fate is now in the hands of one more jury: the American people.

  Mike Davis is the Founder and President of Article III Project.

  You can subscribe to Unfazed and Determined here, and be sure to follow Mike Davis and the Article3Project here and here.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/17/2024 – 18:25

• Canada's Trudeau Slammed Over "Black Justice" Proposal That Would Decriminalize Drugs, Empty Jails
  Canada’s Trudeau Slammed Over “Black Justice” Proposal That Would Decriminalize Drugs, Empty Jails

  Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is being slammed by conservatives over recommendations he seeks to implement from a standing committee on “black justice” in Canada.

  The proposal will make crime worse in Canada, conservatives led by MP Jamil Jivani have argued. 

  Jivani challenged Liberal Diversity Minister Kamal Khera at a heritage committee meeting over the recommendations in “A Roadmap for Transformative Change: Canada’s Black Justice Strategy”, according to True North.

  Jivani criticized the proposals as “radical,” citing calls for a 30% reduction in incarceration over 10 years, decriminalizing a 30-day supply of hard drugs like cocaine, heroin, and meth, and cutting 25% of federal grants to police departments.

  Jivani accused Khera of being the “DEI Minister” and asked if she supported such “radical criminal justice policies”.

  

  Khera responded: “It would only be a Conservative that would be making a joke out of systemic racism (which as a result) have seen an over incarceration of black and Indigenous people in our criminal justice system. To be making a joke about that is disgraceful.”

  The True North report says that in December 2021, Justice Minister Arif Virani was tasked with addressing systemic discrimination contributing to the overrepresentation of Black Canadians in the justice system. A 2020/21 Justice Canada report found that 9% of federal offenders were Black, though they make up only 4% of the population.

  The Black Justice Strategy report, released in June and developed with input from 12 Black-led organizations, proposes measures like reducing Black and Indigenous incarceration by 50% by 2034, easing bail restrictions, repealing mandatory minimums, and providing a taxpayer-funded “safe supply” of drugs.

  It also advocates for decriminalizing possession of a 30-day supply of controlled substances, including heroin, meth, and cocaine, and reallocating 25% of federal police grants to non-police organizations.

  Virani called the report “historic” and essential for building a fairer justice system, but Jivani warned that its recommendations would lead to more crime and disorder, calling the strategy “appalling” in a July social media post.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/17/2024 – 18:05

• Albert Einstein & The Folly Of Marxist Sympathies
  Albert Einstein & The Folly Of Marxist Sympathies

  Authored by Kgatlhiso Darius Leshaba via The Mises Institute,

  In the year 1949, the first issue of the socialist publication Monthly Review was released. Within the collection of essays, one stood out in particular. Notably, its author was none other than Albert Einstein. Somewhat misleadingly titled “Why Socialism?” the essay reads more like a critique of capitalism than a justification of socialism. In it, the brilliant physicist lays out his reasons for rejecting private property and briefly sketches out his vision for a moral and just society.

  Now, 75 years after the first appearance of the essay, I believe a critical analysis is in order.

  

  Einstein begins his essay by justifying his (and other non-economists) right to chime in on the debate about socialism. While I agree with the broad sentiment, the specific points strike me as worryingly naive. The first is that, due to the fact that since the history of most states is one of violence and coercion, conventional economic theory, as a product of the past “predatory phase” of human development, is ill-equipped to “throw…light on the socialist society of the future.”

  This seems to imply that not only should non-economists’ opinions be considered just as valid as professional economists, but that the opinions of economists are tainted by the context of their formation, and thus not adequate to comment on the nature of the future socialist paradise. At some point or another, socialists must come to realize that the nature of their envisioned society must be investigated if they are going to avoid repeating the catastrophes of the 20th-century experiments. An analysis of the incentives of such a system is crucial for evaluating if such a system would indeed serve as an improvement to the current state of affairs. The only field of study with the tools for this is economics, in all its depth and breadth.

  The second point made is one I wholly agree with, that economics as a science cannot choose ends, but can only inform the means for the attainment of desired ends. Thus, the question of what ends should be chosen lies outside the field of economic analysis, but the analysis of the means chosen for the attainment of desired ends is fair game.

  Einstein then goes on to lay out a brief theory of the relationship between the individual and her society. The main point in what he terms the “crisis of our time” is that the willful dissociation of individuals from their group identities leads to a nihilistic isolation for which capitalist societies are to be blamed. Einstein seems to fail in recognizing society as an abstract concept representing numerous individuals and their various interactions, direct and indirect, across time.

  Einstein then goes on to state that the modern individual depends wholly on “society,” however, this isn’t the entire picture. Since society is an abstract sum of individuals, it’s better to (at least partially) disaggregate the concept of society and understand that an individual’s interaction with society is ultimately just an interaction between individuals. One is not in a parasitic relationship with the society they belong to, the relationship is mutualistic. Man does not simply receive “food, clothing, a home, the tools of work, language,” man must also provide something of value to society. It may, therefore, be true that the dependence of the individual on other people’s efforts is a fact of nature, but the opposite—that the relative success of other people’s efforts relies on the efforts of the individual—is true as well.

  Einstein fails to realize that the pushback against the desires of the group often arises from coercive attempts to enforce those desires, rather than from a rejection of interdependence altogether. Einstein even makes the claim that the way people find meaning is by serving the desires of the group. There is an important qualification that is missing here—that if they do decide to serve the desires of the group, it must be voluntary and not coerced.

  Here is where we begin to run into Einstein’s “Marxist” critiques of capitalism.

  We start off with the Marxist exploitation theory, built on the back of the labor theory of value. Einstein says, “…what the worker receives is determined not by the real value of the goods he produces…”

  The first problem we run into is the concept of value. It has been firmly established that economic value isn’t intrinsic, that, “The measure of value is entirely subjective in nature.” Value is not transferred somehow from labor to product. In fact, the direction of the imputation of value is exactly the other way around. The economic value of labor is determined by the value of the final product it aids in producing. Therefore, I agree with Einstein, worker pay isn’t determined by the “real value” of what they produce but only because it cannot be determined by something that doesn’t exist. Einstein also seems to believe in the outdated subsistence theory of wages which had long since been disproven by the time Einstein’s essay was published. 

  Einstein then goes on to cite wealth inequality and the resulting distortion of the political landscape by private special interests. He is correct in that the market economy does not make people equal as there is no reason to expect it to do so. People are different, masters of different skills and trades (trades that are valued differently by consumers), leaving little reason to expect remuneration for their various services to be remotely equal. Rent-seeking doesn’t stop, however, just because resources are centrally controlled. Inequality isn’t unique to capitalism.

  Einstein voices displeasure with the fact that most sources of information (media, education, etc.) are privately owned and sees this a limiting factor in individuals’ ability to make objective decisions and their ability to make effective use of their political rights. One would think that, having had to flee from a state which had taken total control of the media, Einstein would know that the criticisms he levies against private ownership of media and education are more effective against these institutions being centrally controlled. Absent a monopoly, private ownership of the media and schools allows for a pluralistic society, where people are more likely to encounter competing viewpoints, and thus does better in the quest for mitigating misinformation. This makes coming to objective conclusions more likely than if there was a single, centrally-owned and -controlled source of information.

  Einstein then goes on to criticize the profit motive. “Production is carried on for profit, not for use” he says, not understanding the emptiness of his statement. Entrepreneurs produce goods that they believe consumers will find useful in satisfying their desires. If consumers judge the goods produced as useful, they patronize the business and the entrepreneur enjoys a profit. Thus, profit represents the entrepreneur’s success in providing goods and services that consumers find useful and valuable. Saying “production is carried on for profit” is just another way of saying production is carried on for the use of the consumers. I prefer not to comment on the faults of the Marxist theory of business cycles and simply let the record of history prove that there isn’t much of a relationship between the passage of time and the severity of depressions.

  Einstein ends by saying that the only way he sees for eliminating these “evils” is through the establishment of a socialist economy, accompanied by an education system that is oriented towards “social goals.” With little discussion of the mechanisms of such a system, one gets the idea that Einstein hasn’t thought this matter through much. The ownership of the factors of production by “society” and their utilization in a “planned fashion” isn’t even demonstrated to be plausible. We are to take him by his word that such a system would improve our standard of living without any critical analysis. Einstein relegates the possibility of repression at the hands of the state to the final few sentences of his essay, ending with sentiments which echo the claim that state ownership of the means of production is not “real socialism.” Although he raises some pertinent questions, he provides no answers.

  It is telling that many of these same arguments raised by Einstein are raised by disgruntled Zoomers with socialist sympathies.

  It would almost seem as though, as brilliant a thinker as Albert Einstein was, he was unfamiliar with economic theory and evidence that ran counter to the Marxist narrative, much like modern-day naive college socialists. Even where we agree, such as the hand inequality plays in distorting politics, he fails to show that it’s uniquely under capitalism that power dynamics can be skewed.

  This is because none of the criticisms levied can be laid down at the feet of capitalism, merely removing the market economy will not solve the great “evils” but only change the way these evils manifest themselves in society.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/17/2024 – 17:45

• We're Told This Is Progress, But It's Actually Anti-Progress
  We’re Told This Is Progress, But It’s Actually Anti-Progress

  Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

  We need a new definition of Progress, and a reset of the mythology guiding our descent into “Anti-Progress”.

  There’s a curious disconnect between our glorification of Technological Progress and our real-world experience. If we step outside the tent of relentless propaganda touting science-fiction fantasies come to life–permanent bases on the Moon, limitless energy from fusion, etc.–we find that rather than everyday life getting better–the core meaning of Progress–we find that everyday life is getting harder. I call this Anti-Progress–the opposite of Progress.

  Buried beneath the thrills of science-fiction fantasies come to life, real life is characterized by the accelerating descent into Anti-Progress.

  Consider a raw carrot. In the current system of Progress, the most important feature of a raw carrot is its low profitability. There is little that promotion, branding or “innovation” can do to persuade consumers to pay more for a raw carrot.

  The most important feature of a raw carrot to the human body is that it is a natural food packed with nutrients and fiber. It is easy to store and transport and can be eaten raw or cooked. It can be eaten alone or mixed into stews, soups, salads and casseroles. A raw carrot is a healthy snack.

  None of this overcomes its terrible, unfixable flaw: it doesn’t lend itself to Progress, i.e. boosting profits. The Progress solution to this inherent flaw is to process the carrot into a product that can be marketed as an advance (i.e. Progress) in convenience, novelty, status and engagement (i.e. dopamine rush / addiction), attributes the consumer will pay more for.

  A few shreds of the carrot are cooked into mush and added to a concoction of potato starch, sugar and low-quality fat that is dyed with artificial colors to match a carrot’s color and marketed as a “veggie snack” (“contains real carrots!”).

  The nutritional value of the product is nil and the health consequences of consuming what is basically a greasy sugary confection are negative. The list of chronic diseases incurred by a diet of such highly processed food is long.

  This engineered snack, deceptively marketed as “veggie” to deceive parents into assuming it is a “healthy snack,” is immensely profitable, and so the system cheers the soaring sales and profits.

  The engagement/addiction aspect of this product is especially pernicious, as it is specifically designed to hijack the human brain’s reward centers much like a powerful drug. Its mouthfeel and heavy doses of sugar, salt and fat activate our hard-wired predilection for what is scarce in the hunter-gatherer diet: salt, fats and sweets. Eating this snack generates an immediate reward: a pleasurable dopamine rush. Bet you can’t just have one.

  Not only is this confection devoid of nutrition, it’s designed to be addictive. As every drug dealer knows, there’s nothing more profitable than an addiction that generates reliable demand.

  This describes not just addictive drugs and processed foods; it describes the whole of consumerism, which carefully cultivates addiction as the defining dynamic not just of Progress but of every-day life.

  Should any consumers lodge a complaint about the deceptively advertised “veggie snack” with the agencies tasked with protecting public health, they will find the corporate lobbyists have neutered public influence by spending whatever sums of money are needed to buy the compliance of regulators, what’s known as regulatory capture.

  The product is declared safe and anyone complaining about the deceptive packaging is told that it’s up to consumers to choose what to buy or not buy: caveat emptor, buyer beware.

  This process of boosting profits by masking the negative consequences is not just rational in the system of Progress, it’s the only path: any CEO who chooses not to maximize profits and buy political influence is fired for incompetence.

  This reveals the pathological nature of organizing an economy and society around promoting a mythology that equates expanding consumption with Progress.

  Anyone who describes the system as it truly is must be marginalized with an accusation of violating the American taboo against negativity. Not finding a silver lining is an unforgiveable sin: just as you must cheer technological Progress, you must be relentlessly positive. An entire library of cheery slogans is at the ready to ensure the proper dose of positive spirit has been administered, no matter how insincerely. If life gives you lemons, make lemonade.

  So when we move to the response to the diseases generated by a diet of addictive processed foods–the immensely profitable market for pharmaceuticals that alleviate the symptoms of the diseases caused by consuming processed foods–we find a happy marriage of profits reaped by generating lifestyle diseases and an equally profitable alleviation of symptoms.

  There are numerous subsidiary winners in this Anti-Progress profit bonanza: university research funded by corporate interests, lobbying firms handsomely paid to dig regulatory moats, politicians harvesting campaign contributions, think-tanks paid to distribute the apologists’ favorite cover-story, “the free market,” speculators scheming to cash in on a heavily hyped initial public offering (IPO), and so on.

  Once we tune in to the siren songs of Progress, we hear them everywhere. The smart phone is a wonder, for what could be better than having shopping, hyper-addictive games and social media at our fingertips, an addictive device that enables access to a wealth of other addictions?

  Just as the consequences of consuming the “veggie snack” are hidden, so are the consequences of glorifying addictive technologies as Progress.

  Healthy human life is constructed of relationships between individuals, families, communities, the natural world and the moral universe.

  Our economic system of Progress severs all these links as impediments to expanding consumption and profits via addiction, obsolescence, insecurity and narcissism. From the perspective of a healthy human life, these are the perfection of Anti-Progress.

  How can soaring rates of diabetes and prediabetes be Progress? Clearly, this is Anti-Progress.

  

  How can soaring rates of disability be Progress? Clearly, this is Anti-Progress.

  

  How can soaring rates of metabolic disorders be Progress? Clearly, this is Anti-Progress.

  

  How can soaring costs of basic healthcare insurance be Progress? Clearly, this is Anti-Progress.

  

  How can soaring rates of teen depression be Progress? Clearly, this is Anti-Progress.

  

  How can increasing loneliness be Progress? Clearly, this is Anti-Progress.

  

  While returning to the Moon and AI apps are touted as “proof” of Progress, real-world life is most accurately described as snowballing Anti-Progress. We need a new definition of Progress, and a reset of the mythology guiding our descent into Anti-Progress. That’s the topic of my new book, The Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress and a Mythology for the 21st Century.

  *  *  *

  Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

  Subscribe to my Substack for free

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/17/2024 – 17:05

• "The Case Is More Serious": NYT Hid Extent Of Kamala Harris Plagiarism From Their Own Expert
  “The Case Is More Serious”: NYT Hid Extent Of Kamala Harris Plagiarism From Their Own Expert

  Earlier this week journalist Chris Rufo revealed that Kamala Harris plagiarized giant sections of her book on crime, after famed Austrian “plagiarism hunter” Dr. Stefan Weber found that “Kamala Harris plagiarized at least a dozen sections of her criminal-justice book.”

  

  In response, the New York Times bent over backwards (and forwards) to downplay their preferred candidate’s cut-n-pastery – first casting it as ‘conservative activist seizes on passages‘ from Harris’ book, then totally lying about Rufo’s reporting – which Rufo quickly debunked.

  As part of their propaganda, the Times wheeled out plagiarism expert Jonathan Bailey, who said “his initial reaction to Mr. Rufo’s claims was that the errors were not serious, given the size of the document.“

  Except, the Times concealed the extent of the claims from Bailey – who writes in his Plagiarism Today blog: “At the time, I was unaware of a full dossier with additional allegations, which led some to accuse the New York Times of withholding that information from me. However, the article clearly stated that it was my “initial reaction” to those allegations, not a complete analysis.

  ABC does fake fact-checks to help Kamala. CBS stealth-edits an interview to help Kamala. New York Times withholds evidence to help Kamala. This is endemic—and only visible now because we have X.

  — Christopher F. Rufo ⚔️ (@realchrisrufo) October 17, 2024

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  From Bailey’s blog:

  Today, I reviewed the complete dossier prepared by Dr. Stefan Weber, whom I have covered before. I also performed a peer review of one of his papers in 2018.

  With this new information, while I believe the case is more serious than I commented to the New York Times, the overarching points remain. While there are problems with this work, the pattern points to sloppy writing habits, not a malicious intent to defraud.

  Bailey still refers to the plagiarism as nothing more than “sloppy writing habits, not a malicious intent to defraud.”

  

  Much like it’s not “malicious intent to defraud” when a college student copies Wikipedia word-for-word, then gets expelled?

  What’s more, Rufo implored the Times to look at the entire claim – which they refused to do.

  When the Times published its piece, I called the reporter and the editor to protest that they withheld evidence from their supposed “expert.” The editor, Mary Suh, gave me the excuse that it wasn’t their job to review the whole report. I hung up on her. pic.twitter.com/D7sQDpJS6P

  — Christopher F. Rufo ⚔️ (@realchrisrufo) October 17, 2024

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  Here is the full 47-page dossier, prepared by famed Austrian “plagiarism hunter” Stefan Weber. Anyone can read it and come to the conclusion that Kamala Harris plagiarized her book, Smart on Crime. https://t.co/7KvwbzqTOS

  — Christopher F. Rufo ⚔️ (@realchrisrufo) October 15, 2024

  Meanwhile, the plagiarism is even worse than reported!

  SHE KEEPS GOING: This is a ninth instance of significant plagiarism by Kamala Harris. Although she cited the source, she copied long passages of language verbatim, without paraphrasing or putting it in quotations. It’s textbook “verbatim plagiarism”—and not an isolated incident. pic.twitter.com/5uwWwRDxkt

  — Christopher F. Rufo ⚔️ (@realchrisrufo) October 15, 2024

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  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/17/2024 – 16:45

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• Italy's Meloni On Israel Arms Embargo: "We Have Blocked Everything"
  Italy’s Meloni On Israel Arms Embargo: “We Have Blocked Everything”

  The Italian government has imposed the strictest arms embargo on Israel among any European nation, with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni having confirmed before the Italian senate that all new arms deals were blocked within weeks of the start of Israel’s military offensive in Gaza.

  “After the start of [Israeli military] operations in Gaza, the government immediately suspended all new export licenses, and all agreements signed after October 7th were not implemented,” Meloni said on Tuesday.

  

  She further described that licenses authorized before the war are being “analyzed on a case-by-case basis by the competent authority at the foreign ministry.”

  “We have blocked everything,” the Italian leader said while acknowledging that her government’s ban is “much more restrictive than that applied by our partners—France, Germany and the United Kingdom.”

  Pro-Israel sources as well as Jewish news agencies in the West have described Italy’s rhetoric as “increasingly hostile” toward Israel of late, particularly after the escalation of war in Lebanon.

  Meloni in her Tuesday address made reference to ongoing controversy surrounding Israeli forces targeting troops of the UN Interim Force In Lebanon (UNIFIL). Italy and Ireland tend to be Europe’s largest contributor of troops to the peacekeeping team which has its command HQ in south Lebanon.

  Two UNIFIL troops have been wounded by Israeli forces (IDF) thus far. “Even if there have been no casualties or extensive damage, I think that Israel’s attack on UNIFIL cannot be considered acceptable,” the Italian premier said. “We believe that the attitude of the Israeli forces is completely unjustified,” she emphasized.

  IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi has countered by saying that the real problem is that Hezbollah terrorists are exploiting positions surrounding UNIFIL outposts. 

  Israel has called on the UN peacekeepers to leave while accusing UNIFIL of allowing Hezbollah to relentlessly bombard northern Israel with missiles from territory under its watch. Meloni meanwhile also unveiled plans to soon visit Lebanon.

  As for whether arms embargos on Israel will grow among European countries, Frances is currently in embroiled in a public spat with Israeli leadership. Top German leaders have also of late blocked the sale of weapons to Israel.

  Speaking in #Italy‘s lower house of parliament, the Chamber of Deputies, Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, announced an upcoming visit to #Lebanon on Friday, October 19. #Meloni also said heeding the “unilateral request from Israel would be a grave mistake,” as “it would… pic.twitter.com/ZXOHjBhede

  — Al Mayadeen English (@MayadeenEnglish) October 16, 2024

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  The German government has insisted that there is no official arms embargo in effect. Chancellor Olaf Scholz recently vowed that more weapons will be sent to Tel Aviv soon.

  However, Politico has highlighted: “Arms export decisions are approved by the Federal Security Council made up of senior ministers. Bild reported that Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock — Green politicians who are in governing coalition with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats — withheld approval for arms exports in the council pending assurances from Israel that it would not use German weapons in a genocide.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/17/2024 – 02:45

• EU Energy Ministers Debate Russian Gas Flows As Ukraine Transit Deal Nears End
  EU Energy Ministers Debate Russian Gas Flows As Ukraine Transit Deal Nears End

  Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

  • EU ministers are debating alternatives to Russian gas imports as the Ukraine transit deal expires in December 2024.

  • Concerns are rising regarding rising Russian LNG imports and the effectiveness of EU sanctions on re-exports.

  • Some EU members advocate for stricter LNG reporting and alternatives like Azerbaijan are being discussed, but no concrete solutions are yet agreed upon.

  European Union energy ministers are discussing the flows of natural gas from Russia to the EU as the transit deal via Ukraine is nearing its end.

  

  The ministers are also talking about the issue of Russia’s LNG shipments to the bloc, which have been rising in recent months.

  The EU’s latest package of sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine included in June a ban on reloading services of Russian LNG in EU territory for the purpose of transshipment operations to third countries, after a transition period of 9 months. This covers both ship-to-ship transfers and ship-to-shore transfers, as well as re-loading operations, and does not affect import but only re-export to third countries via the EU, the bloc said.

  Now several EU member states, including France and Belgium, are calling on the European Commission to propose stricter requirements for reporting LNG import volumes by suppliers and storage companies.

  “We have seen in Belgium a doubling of LNG volumes. These are probably destined for security of supply within Europe but we have difficulty implementing this (14th) package that’s why we are calling for a tracking system,” Belgium’s Energy Minister Tinne van der Straeten said, as carried by Reuters.

  Regarding remaining pipeline gas flows from Russia to the EU via the Ukraine transit route, Ukraine has already said on several occasions that it would not extend the current gas transit deal which expires on December 31, 2024.

  But Slovakia, which continues to receive Russian gas, has said it would like to continue using the route via Ukraine.

  EU energy ministers have been discussing replacing Russia with Azerbaijan as a supplier, but there haven’t been many details about how this could work, technically and politically, Bloomberg notes.

  The EU is nowhere near an agreement on replacing Russian flows, and a possible deal could even be struck at the 11th hour or early next year, anonymous sources familiar with the discussions told Bloomberg.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/17/2024 – 02:00

• The US Plans To Let BRICS Fail In A Geopolitically Explosive Environment
  The US Plans To Let BRICS Fail In A Geopolitically Explosive Environment

  Authored by Peter Hanseler via VoiceFromRussia.ch,

  Introduction

  In less than two weeks, the 2024 BRICS Summit will take place in Kazan from 22-24 October. Our team will be there to follow and report on what is likely to be the most important geopolitical event of the year.

  

  We are using the summit as an opportunity to publish several articles on this issue of the century. In this first article, we describe the adverse geopolitical environment in which this organisation is developing.

  I would like to preface this with the following: Reliable geopolitical statements are based on facts. As the geopolitical facts change almost daily, this fact makes it difficult or impossible to produce analyses that will stand the test of time.

  Several key geopolitical parameters are either completely in flux or will not have been decided at the time of the BRICS summit. I consider the following parameters to be crucial for medium-term geopolitical developments: (1) war in the Middle East; (2) war in Ukraine; (3) interest rate developments and the behaviour of the Fed until the end of this year as an indicator of the instability of Western financial markets with the inevitable consequences for the global economy; (4) US presidential elections.

  For China and Russia, which play a leading role in BRICS – Russia currently holds the chair – the following questions arise: Should BRICS accept few, no or many new members? Candidates are lining up, but some are under enormous pressure from the US to avoid joining BRICS. Should a new payment mechanism independent of the US dollar be introduced now, further upsetting the balance in already unstable financial markets? Such decisions, or even the mere communication of them, have the potential to significantly alter the entire geopolitical situation within hours – positively or negatively, depending on the observer’s point of view.

  This article can therefore be no more than a transcription of thoughts on significant geopolitical developments that are currently taking place simultaneously and unpredictably. A full assessment is impossible. Many factors cannot be reliably assessed – such as developments in Africa, Asia and South America.

  The feigned disinterest of the West

  For a long time, the Western media maintained an ironclad silence on the subject of BRICS. A glimmer of interest appeared when Turkey expressed interest in joining BRICS. Now there is radio silence again. Alternative media are outdoing each other with predictions that BRICS will change the world tomorrow. The Russian media are holding back in this fireworks of jubilation. But to interpret the silence of the Western media as a lack of interest in BRICS would be more than naive.

  The Mainstream Media in the West as Hate Mongers and Warmongers

  In retrospect, people are always amazed at how people allowed their leaders to behave so foolishly and against the interests of their own nations on the road to world wars.

  The answer is banal: the mainstream media regularly play a devastating role, both on the road to war and during war. The mainstream media allow themselves to be used and wring their hands when those media that report honestly are destroyed. Without journalists who sell their souls and trample on the interests of their own country, there would be no such catastrophes.

  A few gallows should be kept ready for the ladies and gentlemen responsible. That would be nothing new, by the way. Julius Streicher, publisher of the Nazi hate newspaper “Der Sturmer”, was hanged in Nuremberg.

  

  Hate propaganda can lead to a broken neck – Julius Streicher, former publisher of the newspaper “Der Stürmer”

  This picture is intended to be a visual lesson in how it can end when you throw all journalistic principles overboard for evil.

  The population in the West is already powerless

  Since the brainwashing is not yet absolute, significant parts of the European population are still far from believing and supporting the madness spread by the media. The closed front of hatred – for example, against Russia – takes place primarily in the media, which are in complete lockstep throughout the West, with a few exceptions.

  Significant parts of the population – in France, Germany and Austria, for example – have expressed their disgust with their leaders at the polls, and in a functioning democracy this should have led to political change. The political elites in France and Germany – and recently also in Austria – have used illegal means to prevent the political participation of those parties that advocate peace, for example in Ukraine, accompanied by the media labeling those who advocate peace as “Nazis” or at least “right-wing extremists. I have never heard of Adolf Hitler advocating peace.

  There are certainly parallels with those dark times. The actions of the Nazi regime after it seized power in 1933 are virtually identical to those of today’s elites in Europe against dissenters in terms of restricting freedom of expression: inciting the masses against those sections of the population who question the policies of the powerful; bringing the media into line; and – especially in Germany – violating the law beyond recognition. For example, denying the winner of the regional elections in Thuringia the right to participate in the government or to have a blocking minority.

  Freedom of expression in the midst of agony

  Representative of the trend that freedom of expression in the West is hanging by a thread, here is a quote from John Kerry, on the occasion of a WEF meeting that took place between September 23 and 27.

  “Our First Amendment stands as a major block to the ability to be able to hammer [disinformation] out of existence.

  What we need is to win…the right to govern by hopefully winning enough votes that you’re free to be able to implement change.

  In other words, Kerry qualifies freedom of expression as a problem and announces that this “problem” would be solved by the state if Kamala Harris wins. We leave this thought in the air and refer to our article: “US elections decide on war or peace”.

  If it weren’t for the internet and blogs, the powerful would have already achieved their goal, because fortunately it seems practically impossible to silence all voices of reason.

  BRICS: From an economic project to a geopolitical force

  When representatives from Brazil, Russia, China and India first met formally on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York in 2006, the world looked very different. Even in 2009, when the first formal BRIC summit was held in Yekaterinburg in June 2009, without South Africa – hence “BRIC” instead of “BRICS” – the world was different. The original goals of the BRIC countries were to achieve better economic cooperation between countries that had not yet been openly declared enemies or even sanctioned by the West. There seemed to be no rush (yet).

  From 2014, pressure on Russia increased as a result of Maidan and Crimea. Russia was portrayed as the villain and sanctions were imposed. President Putin continued to seek diplomatic solutions for another eight years, welcomed Minsk I and II, but was again deceived. The artillery shelling of civilians in Donetsk by the “peaceful” Ukrainians did not stop, and NATO was building up the Ukrainian army for an attack on Russia.

  Russia began to prepare for the foreseeable, especially economically, because militarily it had been doing so with great energy and creativity since the attack on Georgia in 2008. When the situation escalated in February 2022, Russia had apparently done its economic homework and could count on the loyalty of its partners in BRICS and SCO. The US miscalculation can be explained by the fact that Americans are unfamiliar with the concept of loyalty, while the EU miscalculation can be explained by the fact that most of its members are ruled by leaders whose stupidity borders on idiocy.

  Russia has weathered the economic war unleashed by the West, despite a storm of sanctions unprecedented in world history. The losers are to be found in the West, with Germany being hit the hardest – also due to a senseless economic policy.

  The U.S. did not limit its economic war to Russia, but also began to sanction China in 2014, as always with flimsy arguments. The EU – as a vassal of the US – has willingly gone along with this, and is currently doing so out of its own self-interest, since the industrial pearl that is Germany has already lost out due to misguided economic policies, bad decisions by its automotive industry and suicidal sanctions against Russia. Auto industry experts are speechless and wringing their hands: Since Covid, Mercedes has not managed to get its factories above 50% capacity – a complete collapse is becoming apparent across the board.

  Next came the freezing of the reserves of the Russian Central Bank and the expropriation not only of Russians, but of anyone with a “Russian connection”, a term that is not legal in nature and has opened the door for governments and banks in the West to stage a raid.

  China, which is only a few steps behind Russia in terms of sanctions, has become a target for the West because of its industrial superiority. It is the great new enemy of the US and Europe.

  It would be naive to neglect the South China Sea and Taiwan, which are hot spots along with Ukraine and the Middle East, because what is at stake is nothing less than military domination of the Pacific, which the Americans have held since 1945, and control of one of the world’s most important transportation routes. Once the Americans are somewhere, you can’t get rid of them – even 80 years after a conflict. In Germany, for example, the US still operates 40 military bases. This alone makes it clear that Germany is not even nominally sovereign, but a mere vassal of the US. What “interests” the US “protects” for others around the globe remains in the dark.

  Although most people consider military conflicts to be more important than economic wars because they are more bloody and evoke more emotion, history teaches us that the economically stronger ultimately prevails. As a consequence of this thought, it can be argued that the economic war as the decisive part of the 3rd World War is already in full swing.

  In addition to many small military conflicts – such as in Africa – two increasingly escalating wars are currently raging: the conflict in Ukraine has been going on for two and a half years, and the latest conflict in the Middle East has been raging for a year.

  Military escalation in Ukraine

  Since last September, it has been clear who will prevail militarily in Ukraine. The advance of Russian troops across the entire front is accelerating steadily. We regularly recommend a YouTube channel that provides an unemotional daily report in English (“Military Summary”) and Russian (“Военныe сводки”) of events at the front and has not made any mistakes: only facts.

  Ukraine’s Kursk adventure will end as it was bound to end; the last elite Ukrainian troops that (President) Selenski assembled for this suicide mission and equipped with modern equipment will leave Kursk as prisoners or in body bags. My sources speak of more than 21,000 casualties on the Ukrainian side.

  Since the military outcome of the matter was decided – that is, since September 2023 – (President) Selenski, on behalf of his masters in Washington, has been wasting his men – young and old – at an ever-increasing rate. The death rate on the Ukrainian side has doubled from last year to June 2024: 60,000 to 80,000 men lost – per month. The number of Ukrainian prisoners of war is also increasing daily due to military encirclement. The fresh soldiers who have been thrown to the front since the beginning of the year do so after a 10-day quick fix, following a veritable hunt by recruiting troops throughout the territory of western Ukraine. These men do not want to go to the front and flee at the first opportunity. They know the war is lost, and they are not willing to give their lives for a country whose leadership they do not respect and whose fight is hopeless. Even CNN and the New York Times are reporting this.

  The latest attempt by the U.S. and Britain to escalate the situation by using NATO’s long-range weapons against Russia failed because of President Putin’s clear response that in this case NATO countries, the U.S. and Europe would be directly involved in the war in Ukraine and that Russia would therefore make appropriate decisions based on the threat, given the changed nature of this conflict. This statement caused President Biden to backtrack within hours. Russia then further tightened its doctrine on the use of nuclear weapons, making it clear that the concept of proxy wars would no longer be tolerated in the future.

  It is not possible to say how long these two statements by President Putin will prevent the escalation. On October 3, another attack was carried out against the Kursk nuclear power plant – it is not known whether long-range weapons were used. It was rumored that at the next Ramstein meeting, Germany would authorize the use of long-range weapons despite the warning from the Kremlin. However, President Biden has now announced that he would not be attending this meeting due to the hurricane situation in the US. Shortly afterwards, Anthony Blinken also canceled. Meanwhile, the meeting has been canceled for the time being. Believing in victory looks different.

  On October 8, Foreign Minister Lavrov reaffirmed the new doctrine and its automatic application in the event of the use of long-range weapons.

  “As soon as this decision is taken [by the West to allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles], if it is taken, we will learn that, and the contingency mentioned by Vladimir Putin will already be in action,”

  Sergei Lawrow – 8 Oktober 2024

  Selenski’s ‘victory plan’ was rejected in Washington anyway and testifies to the president’s complete loss of touch with reality. Even Czech President Petr Pavel has pointed this out. Although he is a vocal supporter of Ukraine and a former NATO general, he nevertheless expressed the view that parts of Ukraine would probably end up belonging to Russia. He softened this statement by describing this Russian occupation as ‘temporary’. Slovakia’s prime minister, Robert Fico, has also come out strongly against Ukraine joining NATO. Fico has long been a thorn in the side of the hawks, and they will regret that the attempt on his life did not bear fruit. I would not be surprised if a second attempt is made, as has already happened with Donald Trump.

  The interim conclusion is that Russia has already won militarily against Ukraine, but the dying goes on without changing the outcome. The only thing left for NATO to do is to use long-range weapons against Russia in order to extend the war to the whole of NATO.

  Escalation in the Middle East

  The situation in the Middle East is even worse. After the events of 7 October 2023 were portrayed as a massacre of Palestinians, Prime Minister Netanyahu used this event, referred to as the “9/11 moment”, as an opportunity to massacre the population of Gaza. In January 2024, the International Court of Justice ruled unequivocally that this was genocide. To no avail, because since its creation in 1948, Israel has only respected the law that benefits it.

  In the months following October 7, it emerged that the vast majority of the deaths that day were at the hands of the Israeli Defense Forces and that the alleged mass rapes and beheadings of children were pure invention. These clear denials of Israeli propaganda were, incidentally, not made by obscure blogs, but by the Israeli daily newspaper “Haaretz”.

  The entire Western public has been subjected to an unprecedented brainwashing, which in Germany, for example, has gone so far as to issue a memo to the staff of public television stations dictating the wording and adjectives they should use in their reporting. See our article “ARD–Glossary justifies genocide – Dr. Goebbels would be proud“.

  Apart from a few courageous students, who were labeled anti-Semites for protesting against this genocide, no one in the West seems to be bothered by the fact that genocide is becoming fashionable again as a war tactic. After the Israeli military expanded the slaughter to the West Bank, Israel turned its attention to Lebanon. The leader of Hezbollah was eliminated by dropping 86 massive bombs on a residential neighborhood consisting of six buildings. Hundreds of civilians died. Israel uses such barbaric methods to eliminate a few officers of Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. The attacks in Pager are also acts of terrorism and war crimes. Western media celebrate them as ingenious moves by Mossad.

  Genocide and terror are “legal” for the US and the entire West. The Holocaust was also legal, as was the slaughter of over 15 million Russian civilians. The Nazi regime provided these “actions” with a “legal basis”. We have thus returned to a time when the terms “legal basis”, “law” and “law” have degenerated into empty phrases to assuage the consciences of those who actually commit these atrocities.

  Since 1979, Iran has been described by the West as the epitome of evil and a terrorist state, even though it has not attacked another country in 150 years. That may be about to change. When the political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, was liquidated by the Israelis in Tehran on July 31, 2024, Iran held back. Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, was apparently persuaded by the U.S. not to respond militarily as a cease-fire was being worked out in Gaza. Iran showed its goodwill.

  This was followed shortly afterwards by the pager attack, the assassination of Hassan Nasrrallah and the invasion of Lebanon. The Americans have once again pulled the wool over Iran’s eyes and set a trap. The response from Tehran last week was a missile attack with almost 200 missiles. The US and Israel are calling it a failure, but Israel has banned the dissemination of information about the damage. Film footage shows that over 80% of the missiles hit their target and the damage to military infrastructure is considerable. Iran only attacked military targets, not civilian ones. This distinguishes Iran from the real terrorist state, which has probably systematically killed over 100,000 civilians since last October.

  Israel and the US should think carefully about whether this is a good idea before launching further attacks on Iran: Russia has equipped Iran with S-400 air defense systems and fighter jets – probably including pilots; at the same time, Moscow is clearly distancing itself from Israel and calling on Russian citizens to leave the country.

  The risk of a conflict in which the US and Russia face each other directly in the Middle East has therefore increased noticeably. Neither China nor Russia have the slightest interest in Iran being forced into a war. As a member of the SCO and BRICS, Iran has become an ally of these two major powers and they would therefore have to respond militarily, which would make a direct confrontation between the US and Russia/China de facto inevitable.

  I rule out a military victory for Israel and the US over Iran for the following reasons: Firstly, due to its military successes in the 1960s and 1970s, Israel lives from a myth as a military superpower in the Middle East, which is based on conflicts that lasted a few days or weeks against opponents who were inferior to the Israelis in every respect.

  In 2006, however, Israel clearly lost against Hezbollah and the ineffectual Israelis had to call off their offensive against Lebanon after a month. The Israelis were also unable to achieve their loudly proclaimed goals against a significantly less powerful Hamas despite their genocidal approach.

  Iran is a huge country with an area of 1.6 million square kilometers and a population of 90 million, with an army of just under one million men including reservists. Moreover, Iran is over 1,700 km away from Israel, which rules out a land war. Even the Americans, who cannot even prevail against the Houthis, will have no chance here. Attacking Iran is therefore complete nonsense and madness.

  If you listen to experts, even air strikes seem practically impossible and extremely risky for aircraft due to the Russian S-400 defense systems. Iran has hundreds of thousands of state-of-the-art missiles at its disposal and could cover Israel with hundreds of missiles every day for months. The Israelis’ miraculous Iron Dome may be suitable against old Quds missiles, but they are practically ineffective against modern Iranian missiles, as the last attack showed.

  Unless the Americans have completely lost their minds, they will not comply with the wishes of the Israeli Mini-Hitler. That would probably also be worse for the Biden-Harris government. If the conflict escalates, Iran will multiply the price of oil through attacks on oil infrastructure and a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which would mean the end of the Harris campaign.

  The third major conflict for supremacy in the South China Sea and over Taiwan is not yet being waged kinetically, but it could just as well start tomorrow or in a year’s time.

  The forces that control the USA are the cause of this evil

  Overview

  It sounds simplistic, but there is actually one party ultimately responsible for all the incidents described: The US. It is – rightly – afraid of losing its role as hegemon after 80 years.

  The US’s problem is multifaceted. Firstly, the world’s most indebted country is economically in the doldrums: The published economic figures, which paint a slightly better picture, are sugarcoated. Secondly, society in the US is more divided than ever before: the election campaign between Harris and Trump is hate-filled and this is not about the choice between two people, but about the choice between the deep state and the anti-establishment, which we already described in detail a month ago (US elections decide war or peace) and therefore do not cover this aspect in this article. Thirdly, the strategy of destroying or dismembering Russia implemented after the fall of the Soviet Union has become a distant prospect by conventional means; the war against Russia in Ukraine has failed. Fourthly, over the last 45 years, the US has lost its formerly dominance in the Middle East. The last bastion is Israel, which is being led to its doom by a sociopath under the expert leadership of the US. Fifthly, in my opinion, the biggest problem for the US is the rise of BRICS, as the American empire cannot exist without the supremacy of the US dollar. With the rise of BRICS, this dominance will disappear. For this reason, the US is fighting BRICS with all means at its disposal, be it by exerting pressure on new or potential members (e.g. Saudi Arabia) or through military intervention (e.g. Russia and Iran).

  US economy: The world’s richest country driven to the wall

  The US took over as hegemon after the Second World War with 22,000 tons of gold, an economy that produced 70% of the world’s industrial goods and a monetary system (Bretton Woods) that was imposed on over forty members and made the US dollar the world currency. In addition, the US was practically spared from the Second World War – as it had been from the First World War. The country and the civilian population suffered no damage whatsoever and compared to the losses suffered by many other warring parties – first and foremost the Soviet Union – the American losses in both world wars can be described as homeopathic.

  Despite this “starting capital”, the US as hegemon did not succeed in maintaining this strength over time. The list of coups, military conflicts and major wars launched by the US in the last 80 years is almost endless and has led to millions of civilian deaths, destroyed countries and complete military defeats for the US.

  The image that the US paints of itself as a “friendly hegemon” is a complete farce. The US was not only brutal and ruthless towards enemies, but also towards friends. If a friend stepped out of line, it was destroyed militarily (Iraq, Libya), subjected to decades of sanctions (Cuba, Iran) or blackmailed by other means (Switzerland).

  The biggest problem for the United States is the fact that it has always lived beyond its means and spent more money than it earned. This led to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system after just 26 years, when President Nixon was forced to close the gold window, which led to them ripping off their partners in the Bretton Woods system. Then the genius Henry Kissinger invented the Petrodollar, which turned the US dollar into the “King Dollar” and gave the US an instrument for unlimited debt, which the Americans also used as a weapon. Anyone who tried to break away and sell raw materials in currencies other than the US dollar was destroyed (Iraq, Libya).

  The turning point came at the latest with the freezing of Russian central bank funds, an infringement of assets that was primarily started by the vassals in the EU in 2022, with even “neutral” Switzerland participating in this – until then – unthinkable breach of the law.

  In my opinion, this action will go down in the history books as one of the greatest blunders, as it not only heralds the end of the Petrodollar, but also greatly accelerates the coming together of the Global South, which is characterized by the fact that the Chinese and Russians no longer conduct 60%, but only 15% of their transactions in US dollars and the BRICS countries – whenever possible – conduct their trade activities outside the US dollar. This trend is accelerating with each passing year and will sooner or later lead to the collapse of the US budget, as it is dependent on the world holding US dollars, or else the US will collapse.

  The stock markets in the West are still close to their highs, but are a miserable measure of the economic health of the Collective West. Most of the countries in this group are effectively bankrupt and are keeping themselves alive by printing money and cutting interest rates. Interest rate cuts that are based on the lie that inflation has been defeated. Every European or American who has to watch their budget has tears in their eyes – from laughter or weeping – when they look at the official inflation figures.

  The official figures have nothing in common with reality. It is the West’s last gasp before collapse. Here, too, history is repeating itself. In the 1970s, Americans were also led to believe that inflation was under control and the Fed Chairman at the time, Arthur F. Burns, lowered interest rates. An inflationary storm then broke out, which Burns’ successor, Paul Volcker, finally got under control again by raising the key interest rate to 19.1% (June 1981).

  On October 4, ZeroHedge reported that global food prices have risen the most in 18 months. The parallels with the 1970s in terms of inflation are striking and worrying.

  

  This drastic cure would no longer be feasible today. At today’s interest rates, the US is paying over one trillion US dollars in interest per year on its gigantic mountain of debt. That is more than the US spends on its gigantic military apparatus. Very few people can even imagine what a trillion actually means:

  Here are some examples of what a trillion actually means:

  • One million seconds equals 11.5 days – one trillion seconds equals: 32,000 years.

  • If someone were to give away a million every day since the day Christ was born, they would still have enough money today to continue this process for another 715 years – until the year 2,739.

  • One trillion grains of rice weigh approximately 30,000 tons.

  It is only a matter of time before this house of cards collapses. Whether the catastrophe starts in Europe, the US or Japan is of secondary importance, as this will lead to a domino effect.

  Bloodbaths accompany the loss of US supremacy in the Middle East

  In our three-part series “Bloodbaths are changing the world”, we have meticulously detailed the rise of the military-industrial complex in the US (Part 1) as the basis for the US’s aggressive foreign policy.

  Until the overthrow of the Shah of Persia in 1979, the US dominated the Middle East and thus also controlled a large part of the world’s oil reserves.

  In the following maps, the influence of the US is colored red. The coloring in the following maps should not be considered absolute.

  

  Influence of the US (red) in the Middle East until the fall of the Shah of Persia – Source: VoicefromRussia.com

  In 2001, the situation looked much worse for the US – its influence was much smaller.

  

  Situation on September 11, 2001 – Source: VoicefromRussia.com

  In part 2 of our bloodbath series, we explained how the US used 9/11 as an excuse to plan a huge campaign to conquer Iraq, Libya, Sudan, Somalia, Afghanistan and Iran. A plan that was in no way inferior to Hitler’s megalomania.

  

  Influence US in September 2001: (red) – the plan: (yellow) – Source: VoicefromRussia.com

  It turned out differently: all war campaigns led to disaster for the US. Nevertheless, the Americans destroyed the following countries either completely or significantly: Afghanistan (US withdrawal), Iraq (US withdrawal with a small contingent remaining against the will of the government), Libya (no [official] ground troops, country destroyed), Syria (lost, but to this day still some ground troops in the oil-rich part), Sudan (no control), Somalia (no control).

  The situation today is as follows: A disaster for the US.

  In addition, Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt joined BRICS last summer (Saudi Arabia joined but has not yet signed up). The following countries in the Middle East have also submitted formal applications for membership: Kuwait, Bahrain and Turkey – more on these in our follow-up articles to this report.

  The geopolitical reach of the US in the Middle East is therefore extremely limited. Furthermore, anyone who believes that Israel does not do exactly what the US orders is naive.

  Israel would not be able to survive a month without US financial and military support. The US has once again found a sociopath (Prime Minister Netanyahu) to do the dirty work for the US, including genocide.

  The power of the Zionists

  Much more important, however, is the question of who is able to influence the US to such an extent and how this is done. The short answer: the Zionists.

  What is Zionism? – “Zionism (from Zion) refers to a political ideology and associated movement aimed at the establishment, justification and preservation of a Jewish nation state in Palestine.”

  The Zionists are in charge of the Israeli government today, although they only represent around 10% of the electorate. One of their most extreme representatives is the current Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.

  In our series on Israel, we mentioned the ultimate goal of the Zionists several times and proved this, among other things, with the help of an entry in Ben Gurion’s diary, namely the creation of a Greater Israel that included Israel, Jordan, Iraq, parts of Syria and areas of Saudi Arabia. This also proves that the term “river” in the Israeli saying “From the river to the sea” does not mean the Jordan, but the Euphrates. This ultimate goal is always dismissed in the West as a conspiracy theory, as well as an old hat, since Ben Gurion’s diary entry dates back to 1948. However, the following statement by Smotrich from October of this year confirms the unbelievable:

  Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich:

  I want a Jewish state that includes Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. pic.twitter.com/k08V7wYNGU

  — Globe Eye News (@GlobeEyeNews) October 10, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  It is no secret that the American government is riddled with Zionists – such as Blinken and Sullivan. Even Joe Biden describes himself as a Zionist.

  The Zionist movement is organized worldwide. By far its most powerful lobbyist is the extremely wealthy AIPAC – The American Israel Public Affairs Committee; in essence a Zionist lobbying organization in the US.

  In the US, all lobbying organizations must be registered as such, which is required by law under FARA – the Foreign Agents Registration Act. This has been in place since 1938 to prevent foreign influence on American politics. AIPAC is expressly excluded from this.

  AIPAC has unlimited access to members of the US Congress and Senate at all times. There has never been a US president who has dared to go against the express will of AIPAC. And AIPAC is the organization that Netanyahu can fully rely on at all times in his religious war mania and to ensure the supply of weapons and money not only from the US.

  This short paragraph should suffice to show that (1) Israel’s goal is not peace, but gigantic expansion at the expense of practically all its Arab neighbors; (2) the question of whether Israel dominates the US or the US dominates Israel is irrelevant: the Zionists are in decisive positions in many countries – including the US and Israel.

  As long as the Zionists occupy these positions of power worldwide, there will be no peace in the Middle East.

  Priority number 1 for the US: Prevent BRICS!

  Whether the US can maintain its hegemony ultimately depends not on military successes, but on economic might, because the US has not won a war since 1945, but has still been able to maintain its world dominance.

  Every hegemon that has ever lost its status has lost it because it went broke. Nevertheless, the US’s approach makes perfect sense from its perspective. The weakness of the US can no longer be hidden. They are now trying to weaken their opponents – at least to create a balance on a relative level – by causing wars that are waged by third parties who weaken each other in the process.

  This is intended to prevent the “rest of the world” from realigning itself collectively. BRICS stands for precisely this realignment: a realignment through the creation of a multipolar world. If BRICS is successful, the US will disappear as a hegemon and will then be one of many players at the table, with defunct empires regularly acting as if they were playing a major role for centuries to come. Just like President Macron or Boris Johnson, for example, who from a rational point of view are just ridiculous loudmouths with countries that belong on the geopolitical dustbin.

  The West’s cast-iron silence on BRICS should therefore by no means be interpreted as a lack of interest. The really important geopolitical developments are known to take place in the background. I personally believe that this organization poses the greatest threat to the US. Russia and China are the two countries that are leading the development of this organization. It therefore makes perfect sense from an American point of view to fight these two countries most aggressively.

  The Russians and Chinese are aware of this and are reacting with the discretion and restraint typical of both countries. There have been 200 events on BRICS in Russia this year and not a lot has been heard.

  It is a huge challenge for BRICS to develop in a well-structured way in this geopolitical turmoil. Some members are already at war with the Collective West (Russia, Iran), Saudi Arabia may not make up its mind as it is obviously under enormous pressure due to its huge investments in the UK and US. The formal signature for accession is still pending.

  The war against Russia in Ukraine has completely failed and has considerably weakened Europe – especially Germany – and exposed NATO as a chatter club. The time will come when even the last naive person in Europe will realize that Europe is once again being used as a blunt and willing instrument of its masters in Washington against Russia. This is a betrayal of national interests. Bought morons in the service of Washington. But how Germany has managed to elect a government whose intellectual abilities are difficult to describe is down to the society that made a choice back in 1933, the consequences of which we all know. The Germans seem to have a special ability to regularly shoot themselves in their own feet – the left and the right.

  To date, US efforts to bring down BRICS by weakening Russia and China have failed.

  Nevertheless, the geopolitical turmoil that the US has caused in recent years is certainly influencing the development of BRICS – both negatively and positively.

  Negatively, as potential members are being bullied, such as Saudi Arabia. Attempts are also being made to influence full BRICS members by luring and threatening them (India, Brazil). Other countries that would like to join BRICS are put under pressure, even if the general public is not aware of this, as this happens in the background or the pressure is exerted for other, pretextual reasons (e.g. Venezuela).

  The positive effect of the US’s behavior is that many countries are becoming acutely aware of what could befall them if they are treated in the same way as Russia and China, although many countries in the Global South are mere microcosms compared to these two giants and therefore lack the resilience of Russia and China. Since BRICS sells multipolarity credibly and actually behaves in a spirit of partnership and not hegemonism, the prospect of living under the umbrella of this community is extremely attractive. This is evident from the long list of countries that would like to formally join or have expressed a strong interest.

  Looking into the crystal ball

  Now one has to ask what the best strategy for BRICS will be: Just grow fast? I do not hold this opinion. Based on conversations with my contacts, BRICS decision-makers seem to think along similar lines. It is possible that no new full members will be admitted at all this year and a status called “ Partner” will be introduced, because the big growth step of last August (increase from 5 to 9 members) must be consolidated and in the current geopolitical environment it is an advantage to be smaller and more flexible.

  What can be considered certain: BRICS has evolved from an economic association to a geopolitical entity. In times of conflict, such an economic community must secure itself geopolitically. It is very possible that the SCO, a security policy organization, will move closer to BRICS or even merge with it.

  From an economic perspective, the biggest challenge for BRICS is to create an efficient payment or settlement system independent of the US dollar. At present, most trade activities within BRICS are settled in local currencies, but no solution has yet been found for settling trade deficits among the members. A lot is being written and rumored, but the Russians and Chinese are keeping their cards close to their chests on this matter. We will hopefully be able to comment on this before the summit begins.

  In the next part, we will provide the latest figures on BRICS. The fact that BRICS is the big economic magnet of the Global South can be anticipated. Over 50 countries want to join and this would create an organization that would outshine everything that has ever existed, because BRICS is already stronger than the G7 in terms of all important parameters.

  Conclusion

  What the death throes of a hegemon look like is currently being demonstrated to the global public in all its gruesome detail. An unbelievable number of people are dying, genocide is once again considered acceptable in the West, the media are becoming drivers of hatred, concealing objectively important developments and lying through their teeth. “Friends” (better: vassals) are sent into the fire for ‘the good cause’. Their own population is lied to and economically ruined. It is becoming increasingly difficult for the hard-hit empire to credibly convey the noble slogans of “freedom”, “democracy” and “prosperity” to its people.

  Being able to develop in an orderly and free manner in such an adverse environment is a huge challenge for an organization like BRICS. This organization, which was launched as a purely economic association, was originally designed to assert itself in free competition. Today, hatred, sanctions and wars are being used as a means to put an end to this organization. A loose economic alliance is becoming a geopolitical alliance and, in the event of further escalation, has every chance of becoming a military alliance.

  I am not an augur, but I would not be surprised if BRICS adopts a strategy of resilience rather than growth and flexibility rather than size. We will know more on October 24.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/16/2024 – 23:25

• NFL Beer Cost Inflation Over The Past Decade
  NFL Beer Cost Inflation Over The Past Decade

  This graphic, via Voronoiapp.com, shows where beer prices have increased the most across NFL teams between 2013 and 2023, based on data from Team Marketing Report via FinanceBuzz.

  

  The Carolina Panthers saw the sharpest increase in beer cost, likely due to having the cheapest 16-ounce beer in the league in 2013, at $4.36.

  Four teams saw beer prices more than double, including the Philadelphia Eagles, where a beer cost a hefty $15.35 in 2023.

  On average, the price of beer rose 25% across the NFL, lower than the pace of inflation, which was 31% over the period.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/16/2024 – 23:00

• Brace Yourselves: A Tsunami Approaches
  Brace Yourselves: A Tsunami Approaches

  Authored by John & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

  “What happened here was the gradual habituation of the people, little by little, to being governed by surprise; to receiving decisions deliberated in secret; to believing that the situation was so complicated that the government had to act on information which the people could not understand, or so dangerous that, even if the people could understand it, it could not be released because of national security… And all the crises and reforms (real reforms, too) so occupied the people that they did not see the slow motion underneath, of the whole process of government growing remoter and remoter.”

  – Historian Milton Mayer, They Thought They Were Free: The Germans, 1933-45

  Brace yourself: a tsunami approaches.

  

  While we squabble over which side is winning this losing battle to lead the country, there is something being concocted in the dens of power, far beyond the public eye, and it doesn’t bode well for the future of this country.

  Anytime you have an entire nation so mesmerized by the antics of the political ruling class that they are oblivious to all else, you’d better beware.

  Anytime you have a government that operates in the shadows, speaks in a language of force, and rules by fiat, you’d better beware.

  And anytime you have a government so far removed from its people as to ensure that they are never seen, heard or heeded by those elected to represent them, you’d better beware.

  We’ve got to get our priorities straight if we are to ever have any hope of maintaining any sense of freedom in America.

  As long as we allow ourselves to be distracted, diverted, occasionally outraged, always polarized and content to view each other—rather than the government—as the enemy, we’ll never manage to present a unified front against tyranny (or government corruption and ineptitude) in any form.

  Mind you, by “government,” I’m not referring to the highly partisan, two-party bureaucracy of the Republicans and Democrats. Rather, I’m referring to “government” with a capital “G,” the entrenched Deep State that is unaffected by elections, unaltered by populist movements, and has set itself beyond the reach of the law.

  This is the hidden face of a government that has no respect for the freedoms of its citizenry.

  So, stop with all of the excuses and the hedging and the finger-pointing and the pissing contests to see which side can out-shout, out-blame and out-spew the other.

  Enough already with the short- and long-term amnesia that allows political sycophants to conveniently forget the duplicity, complicity and mendacity of their own party while casting blame on everyone else.

  This is how evil wins.

  This is how freedom falls and tyranny rises.

  This is how good, generally decent people—having allowed themselves to be distracted with manufactured crises, polarizing politics, and fighting that divides the populace into warring us vs. them camps—fail to take note of the looming danger that threatens to wipe freedom from the map and place us all in chains.

  The world has been down this road before, as historian Milton Mayer recounts in his seminal book on Hitler’s rise to power, They Thought They Were Free.

  We are at our most vulnerable right now.

  The gravest threat facing us as a nation is not extremism but despotism, exercised by a ruling class whose only allegiance is to power and money.

  We’re in a national state of denial, yet no amount of escapism can shield us from the harsh reality that the danger in our midst is posed by an entrenched government bureaucracy that has no regard for the Constitution, Congress, the courts or the citizenry.

  No matter how often the team colors change, the playbook remains the same. The leopard does not change its spots.

  Scrape off the surface layers and you will find that nothing has changed.

  The police state is still winning. We the people are still losing.

  In fact, the American police state has continued to advance at the same costly, intrusive, privacy-sapping, Constitution-defying, heartbreaking, soul-scorching, relentless pace under the current Tyrant-in-Chief as it did under those who occupied the White House before him (Trump, Obama, Bush, Clinton, etc.).

  Consider for yourselves:

  • Police haven’t stopped disregarding the rights of citizens.

  • SWAT teams haven’t stopped crashing through doors and terrorizing families.

  • The Pentagon and the Department of Homeland Security haven’t stopped militarizing and federalizing local police.

  • Schools haven’t stopped treating young people like hard-core prisoners.

  • For-profit private prisons haven’t stopped locking up Americans and immigrants alike at taxpayer expense.

  • Censorship hasn’t stopped.

  • The courts haven’t stopped marching in lockstep with the police state.

  • Government bureaucrats haven’t stopped turning American citizens into criminals.

  • The surveillance state hasn’t stopped spying on Americans’ communications, transactions or movements.

  • The TSA hasn’t stopped groping or ogling travelers.

  • Congress hasn’t stopped enacting draconian laws.

  • The Department of Homeland Security hasn’t stopped being a “wasteful, growing, fear-mongering beast.”

  • The military industrial complex hasn’t stopped profiting from endless wars abroad.

  • The Deep State’s shadow government hasn’t stopped calling the shots behind the scenes.

  • And the American people haven’t stopped acting like gullible sheep.

  So you can try to persuade yourself that you are free, that you still live in a country that values freedom, and that it is not too late to make America great again, but to anyone who has been paying attention to America’s decline over the past century, it will be just another lie.

  The German people chose to ignore the truth and believe the lie.

  They were not oblivious to the horrors taking place around them. The warning signs were definitely there, blinking incessantly like large neon signs.

  “Still,” historian Robert Gellately writes, “the vast majority voted in favor of Nazism, and in spite of what they could read in the press and hear by word of mouth about the secret police, the concentration camps, official anti-Semitism, and so on.”

  The German people backed Hitler because for the majority of them, life was good.

  In a nutshell, life was good because their creature comforts remained undiminished, their bank accounts remained flush, and they weren’t being discriminated against, persecuted, starved, beaten, shot, stripped, jailed and turned into slave labor.

  Life is good in America, too.

  Life is good in America as long as you’re able to keep sleep-walking through life, cocooning yourself in political fantasies that depict a world in which your party is always right and everyone else is wrong, and distracting yourself with bread-and-circus entertainment that bears no resemblance to reality.

  Life is good in America as long as you don’t mind being made to pay through the nose for the government’s endless wars, subsidization of foreign nations, bloated workforce, secret agencies, fusion centers, private prisons, biometric databases, invasive technologies, arsenal of weapons, and every other budgetary line item that is contributing to the fast-growing wealth of the corporate elite at the expense of those who are barely making ends meet—that is, we the 99%. 

  Life is good in America for the privileged few, but as I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, it’s getting worse by the day for the rest of us.

  So, please spare me the media hysterics and the outrage and the hypocritical double standards of those whose moral conscience appears to be largely dictated by their political loyalties.

  Anyone who believes that the injustices, cruelties and vicious callousness of the U.S. government are unique to any one particular administration has not been paying attention.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/16/2024 – 22:35

• Syrian, Russian Warplanes Pound AQ In Idlib After Israeli Attacks On Damascus
  Syrian, Russian Warplanes Pound AQ In Idlib After Israeli Attacks On Damascus

  Via The Cradle

  Syrian and Russian fighter jets carried out several air raids on Wednesday targeting positions belonging to the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) terrorist group, formerly Al-Qaeda’s Nusra Front. 

  The strikes hit HTS positions in the countryside of the northern Idlib governorate, as well as in the countryside of the northwestern city of Latakia, for the second day in a row, according to Al Mayadeen’s correspondent. “The raids targeted military training sites and warehouses, in addition to an underground tunnel in the vicinity of the town of Benin in Jabal al-Zawiya,” Al Mayadeen reported. 

  

  Russian and Syrian jets have stepped up their bombardment of HTS positions in the Idlib and Latakia countryside over the past few days. 

  Syrian-Russian airstrikes targeted the extremist group’s encampments in the Al-Basel Forest west of Idlib city on Monday, as well as the hills surrounding the towns of Sheikh Bahr and Kafr Jales. 

  Sources told Al Mayadeen that the strikes two days ago hit an underground machinery warehouse in Idlib city. 

  According to the opposition-linked war monitor, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), Syrian army forces brought in additional military reinforcements to Idlib from the suburbs of Aleppo and its western countryside. 

  Syria intensified its bombing campaign against Idlib in October last year, following a drone attack carried out by extremists under HTS command, which targeted a Syrian military college, killing dozens. According to several reports, anti-government extremist militants in northern Syria have expanded their drone arsenal and expertise in drone warfare through recent cooperation with Ukraine. 

  Idlib is the last governorate of Syria under full control of extremist armed opposition groups. Damascus’ forces made their first advancement towards Idlib in 2019 when they captured the town of Habeet in the Idlib countryside.

  The latest strikes on Idlib come as Syria has withstood repeated Israeli attacks. Damascus has, over the years, accused HTS and other extremist groups in the country of close cooperation with Tel Aviv. 

  Northeastern Syria has also witnessed significant escalation in recent months, particularly after heavy fighting broke out in August between pro-government Arab tribes and Washington-backed Kurdish militants of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) near US-occupied parts of the country. 

  

  The fighting has come to an end, yet tensions remain high. Tribal figures and academics in Syria’s northeast have attempted to bridge the divides between Damascus and several Kurdish organizations with a new national dialogue initiative. Syrian officials held talks with SDF officials and US-backed Kurdish authorities last year, but the negotiations never progressed. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/16/2024 – 21:45

• Venezuelan Prison Gang Seizes Multiple Apartment Buildings In Texas
  Venezuelan Prison Gang Seizes Multiple Apartment Buildings In Texas

  A new shocking report has found that Venezuelan transnational gang Tren de Aragua has taken over at least four apartment building complexes in San Antonio, Texas, as thousands of its illegal alien gangsters run amok nationwide, sparking crime and chaos from Colorado to Texas to New York City. Many of the members of the armed migrant prison gang invaded the nation through Biden-Harris’ open southern borders.  

  DailyMail revealed: 

  A dangerous Venezuelan gang has taken over at least four apartment complexes in San Antonio, Texas, as it expands its reach in yet another America city, DailyMail.com can reveal.

  The report confirmed that Palatia Apartments was one apartment complex where TdA members were operating out. This complex was the scene of a recent raid… 

  Just last week a small army of police officers raided an apartment complex in San Antonio and arrested 19 individuals – including four gang members.

  Law enforcement sources confirmed TdA had been operating at the Palatia Apartments for five to six months – squatting in empty units they either rented out to other migrants, used as a base to deal cocaine or, most horrifically, as prostitution dens to pimp out women and children.

  But now DailyMail.com can reveal that this apartment invasion is just the tip of the iceberg in the major southern Texas city, with at least three other rental properties also occupied by the criminal organization. 

  While Palatia Apartments was one complex full of TdA members, the other three buildings were not named in the report because of ongoing police investigations. 

  Venezuelan gang seizes San Antonio apartment complex. The San Antonio apartment complex, Palatia Apartments, has been taken over by Tren de Aragua, a transnational criminal organization from Venezuela. This has caused fear and concern in the city. The U.S. Border Patrol had… pic.twitter.com/ApaUQlDADD

  — Bob Bishop – Forensic Investigator (@BobBish40288847) October 9, 2024

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  A few residents at the apartment complex testified about the dangers of living in the Palatia Apartments. “Gun shots day and night”

  The residents claim it’s from the Venezuelan outlaws of Tren De Aragua. pic.twitter.com/awbpkNMPuL

  — hernando arce (@hernandoarce) October 7, 2024

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  BREAKING: Texas law enforcement raided a San Antonio apartment complex controlled by the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua

  San Antonio Police Chief McManus said the multi-agency task force cleared over 300 vacant units at the Palatia Apartments on the city’s North Side

  Police had… pic.twitter.com/Spb3S8ZtTq

  — Unlimited L’s (@unlimited_ls) October 6, 2024

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  Justice served! 💪🏼👮‍♂️ Over a dozen suspected members of the notorious Venezuelan gang, Tren de Aragua, have been arrested in an early morning raid. Operation Aurora targeted the Palatia Apartments, a sprawling complex near the airport, where gang members were breaking into vacant… pic.twitter.com/KzduNsFVO6

  — Vlemx4u (@vlemx4u) October 15, 2024

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  TdA’s activity in San Antonio comes after armed gangsters from the same prison group terrorized the Denver suburb of Aurora last month. This area is a sanctuary city run by far-left Democrats.

  Since 2022, over 42,000 migrants poured into the sanctuary city of Denver, CO.

  Among them were members of the Tren de Aragua gang.

  In 2024, they made their way to neighboring town Aurora & took over apartment buildings, terrorized residents with gun crime, theft & drug dealing. pic.twitter.com/EYd3wcNaHm

  — America (@america) October 12, 2024

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  The US Army warned in leaked documents that as many as 5,000 TdA members have invaded the nation, many of which are armed.

  

  DailyMail noted that TdA’s command and control center shifted north to just below the US border in the Mexican town of Ciudad Juarez. The armed group is rapidly expanding turf nationwide. This may ignite gang warfare with native US gangs.

  

  In recent weeks, police sources told the NYPost that TdA was recruiting their members and victims straight out of NYC-run migrant shelters. 

  In the Big Apple, Tren de Aragua is trying to recruit foot soldiers to force women into sex trafficking — in the hopes that it will become a main source of income for the gang, according to the leaked memo. -NYPost

  This is shocking…

  NYPD Admits Armed Migrant Kids From Gov’t-Funded Roosevelt Hotel Terrorizing Times Square https://t.co/JhHcXhIYe4

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 16, 2024

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  Only made possible by. 

  

  ‘We did it, Joe!’ … 

  

  Democrats are importing the third world into the first world – this only means the situation will worsen.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/16/2024 – 21:20

• Anthony Fauci: The Man Who Thought He Was Science
  Anthony Fauci: The Man Who Thought He Was Science

  Authored by Jayanta Bhattacharya via The Brownstone Institute,

  As a young medical student, I admired Tony Fauci. I bought and read Harrison’s Principles of Internal Medicine, a vital textbook that Fauci co-edited. In reading his new memoir, On Call, I remembered why I admired him. His concern about his patients’ plights, especially HIV patients, comes through clearly.

  

  Unfortunately, Fauci’s memoir omits vital details about his failures as an administrator, an adviser to politicians, and a key figure in America’s public health response to infectious disease threats over the past 40 years. His life story is a Greek tragedy. Fauci’s evident intelligence and diligence are why the country and the world expected so much of him, but his hubris caused his failure as a public servant.

  It is impossible to read Fauci’s memoir and not believe he was genuinely moved by the plight of AIDS patients. Since the first time he learned of the illness from a puzzling and alarming case report, his laudable ambition has been to conquer the disease with drugs and vaccines, cure every patient, and wipe the syndrome from the face of the earth. He is both sincere and correct when he writes that “history will judge us harshly if we don’t end HIV.”

  When an aide in 1985 offered to quit when he contracted AIDS for fear of scandal at Fauci’s beloved National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), Fauci hugged him, declaring “Jim, you crazy son of a bitch, there is no way in the world I would ever let you go.” This was Fauci at his best.

  But Fauci paints an incomplete picture of his attitude toward AIDS patients in its early days. In 1983, in response to a case report of an infant with AIDS published in The Journal of the American Medical Association, Fauci told the press that AIDS might be spread by routine household contact. There was no good evidence then and is none now to suggest that HIV is transmitted that way. But Fauci’s statement, prominently echoed in the media, panicked the American people, almost certainly leading many to physically shun AIDS patients out of an unfounded fear of catching the disease.

  Fauci does not address this incident, so one is left to speculate about why he was attracted to this theory. One possibility is that there was little political support for government spending on AIDS when the public thought it only affected gay men. As the public came to understand AIDS impacted broader populations, such as hemophiliacs and IV drug users, public support for funding HIV research expanded.

  Fauci was tremendously successful in eventually building public support for government spending on treating and trying to prevent the spread of AIDS. Likely no other scientist in history moved more money and resources to accomplish a scientific and medical goal than Fauci, and his memoir proves he was highly skilled in managing bureaucracy and getting his way both from politicians and from an activist movement that was at first highly skeptical about him. (One prominent AIDS activist, playwright Larry Kramer, once called Fauci a murderer.)

  Fauci’s response to activist criticism was to build relationships and use them as a tool to push for more government funding. Fauci’s activist allies seemed to understand the game, staging attacks on Fauci, both playing their part to gain more money for HIV research.

  By contrast, his treatment of scientific critics is harsh, crossing lines that federal science bureaucrats should not cross. In 1991, when University of California, Berkeley, professor and wunderkind cancer biologist Peter Duesberg put forward a (false) hypothesis that the virus, HIV, is not the cause of AIDS, Fauci did everything in his power to destroy him. In his memoir, Fauci writes about debating Duesberg, writing papers, and giving talks to counter his ideas. But Fauci did more, isolating Duesberg, destroying his reputation in the press, and making him a pariah in the scientific community. Though Fauci was right and Duesberg wrong about the scientific question, the scientific community learned it was dangerous to cross Fauci.

  Fauci’s HIV record is mixed. The great news is that, because of tremendous advances in treatment, a diagnosis of HIV is no longer the death sentence it was in the 1980s or 1990s. Fauci claims credit in his memoir, pointing out that the NIAID developed a clinical trial network that made it easier for researchers at pharmaceutical companies to conduct randomized studies of the effectiveness of HIV medications. But any competent National Institutes of Health (NIH) director would have directed NIAID resources this way.

  Furthermore, many in the HIV community have criticized Fauci for not using this network to test treatment ideas developed within the community—especially off-patent medications. Fauci is more reasonable when he takes credit for the 2003 creation of the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief program (PEPFAR), through which the US sent effective HIV medications to several African nations.

  Despite billions of dollars spent on the task, no one to date has produced an effective HIV vaccine or a definitive cure, and the virus remains a threat to the health and well-being of the world population.

  By Fauci’s own high standard, there is still a long way to go.

  In the early days of the war on terror, Fauci became head of civilian biodefense, with the mandate to develop and stockpile countermeasures to biowarfare agents. This appointment made Fauci one of the most well-paid and powerful figures in the US government. Fauci leveraged his deep knowledge of the federal bureaucracy, streamlining federal contracting rules to issue “sole source contracts” and “rapid research grants” to create constituencies of companies and scientists who depended on Fauci for their success.

  In 2005, avian flu emerged and spread among birds, chickens, and livestock. Also spreading were worries that the virus could evolve to become more transmissible among human beings. Fauci deployed NIAID money to develop an avian flu vaccine, leading the government to stockpile tens of millions of ultimately unused and unnecessary doses.

  At this point, virologists persuaded Fauci’s NIAID to support dangerous scientific lab experiments designed to make the avian flu virus more easily transmissible among humans.

  In 2011, NIAID-funded scientists in Wisconsin and the Netherlands succeeded. They published their results in a prestigious scientific journal, so that anyone with the knowledge and resources could replicate their steps. They effectively weaponized the avian flu virus and shared the recipe with the world, with Fauci and his agency in full support.

  The idea behind this gain-of-function research was that we would learn which pathogens might leap into human beings, and that knowing that would help scientists develop vaccines and treatments for these prospective possible pandemics. Fauci, writing to molecular biologists in 2012, downplayed the possibility that laboratory workers or scientists studying these dangerous pathogens might cause the pandemic they were working to prevent.

  He also argued that the risk of such an accident was worth it: “In an unlikely but conceivable turn of events, what if that scientist becomes infected with the virus, which leads to an outbreak and ultimately triggers a pandemic? Many ask reasonable questions: given the possibility of such a scenario—however remote—should the initial experiments have been performed and or published in the first place, and what were the processes involved in this decision? Scientists working in this field might say—as indeed I have said—that the benefits of such experiments and the resulting knowledge outweigh the risks. It is more likely that a pandemic would occur in nature, and the need to stay ahead of such a threat is a primary reason for performing an experiment that might appear to be risky.”

  The NIH did pause funding gain-of-function work aimed at increasing germs’ pathogenicity. The pause didn’t last long, though. In the waning days of the Obama administration, the government implemented a bureaucratic process to permit NIH and NIAID to fund gain-of-function work again. Fauci played a pivotal behind-the-scenes role in reversing the pause, but his memoir provides almost no information about what he did. This is a gaping, telling hole, given the subsequent history with Covid-19.

  Among the projects Fauci and the NIAID funded during these years was research to identify coronaviruses in the wild and bring them into laboratories to study their potential for causing a human pandemic. The work encompassed laboratories worldwide. Fauci’s organization funded an American outfit, EcoHealth Alliance, which worked with scientists at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

  In his memoir, Fauci goes out of his way to deny that any NIH money went to any activities that might have led to the creation of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes Covid. When Sen. Rand Paul (R–Ky.) in July 2021 confronted Fauci with the possibility that Fauci’s NIAID had funded this work, Fauci resorted to cheap debate tactics to obfuscate his and the NIH’s responsibility in supporting this work. It is undeniable that Fauci championed pathogen enhancement for a decade or more.

  While the molecular biological and genetic evidence for a laboratory origin of SARS-CoV-2 is strong, many virologists disagree. (Their entire field would come under a cloud were it true, and many virologists’ careers have been generously supported by Fauci’s NIAID.) The debate on this topic rages on. A review of Fauci’s memoir is not the place to settle the dispute.

  But in judging Fauci’s record as a scientist and a bureaucrat, it’s worth knowing that in 2020, Fauci and his boss, Francis Collins, failed to empanel public discussions and debates on this vital topic. Instead, they created an environment where any scientist voicing the lab-leak hypothesis came under a cloud of suspicion, accused of advancing unfounded conspiracy theories. As with Duesberg, Fauci sought to destroy the careers of dissenting scientists.

  In his memoir, Fauci writes of a “right-wing…smear campaign [that] soon boiled over into conspiracy theories.” He asserts, “One of the most appalling examples of this was the allegation, without a shred of evidence, that an NIAID grant to the EcoHealth Alliance with a sub-grant to the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China funded research that caused the COVID pandemic.”

  But in Congressional testimony in 2024, Fauci denied that he had called the idea of a lab leak a conspiracy theory: “Actually, I’ve also been very, very clear and said multiple times that I don’t think the ‘concept’ of there being a lab leak is inherently a conspiracy theory.”

  This self-serving denial makes a lawyerly distinction between the possibility of a lab origin of the Covid pandemic and the NIH’s funding of EcoHealth Alliance to work with the Wuhan Institute of Virology on coronaviruses. These are neither “right-wing” nor “conspiracy theories,” and the likelihood of a connection between the two is, for good reason, the subject of active bipartisan congressional investigation.

  Fauci was quick to gather all the glory of administrative achievements like PEPFAR to himself while decrying any possibility of blame for the origin of Covid. But if he is responsible for the consequences of one (the millions of Africans saved because of PEPFAR), he is responsible for the consequences of the other. This includes the tens of millions who have died due to the Covid pandemic and the catastrophically harmful lockdowns used to manage it. This is Fauci at his worst.

  By any measure, the American Covid response was a catastrophic failure. More than 1.2 million deaths have been attributed to Covid itself, and deaths from all causes have stayed high long after the number of Covid deaths themselves diminished. In many states, particularly blue states, children were kept out of school for a year and a half or longer, with devastating effects on their learning and future health and prosperity.

  Coercive policy regarding Covid vaccination, recommended by Fauci on the false premise that vaccinated people could not get or spread the virus, collapsed public trust in other vaccines and led the media and public health officials to gaslight individuals who had suffered legitimate vaccine injuries.

  To pay for the lockdowns recommended by Fauci, the US government spent trillions of dollars, causing high unemployment in the most locked-down states and a hangover of higher prices for consumer goods that continues to this day. Who is to blame?

  Fauci served as a key adviser to both President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, and was a central figure on Trump’s Covid task force that determined federal policy. If Fauci has no responsibility for the outcomes of the pandemic, nobody does. Yet in his memoir’s chapters on Covid, he simultaneously takes credit for advising leaders while disclaiming any responsibility for policy failures.

  Fauci implausibly writes that he “was not locking down the country” and “had no power to control anything.” These statements are belied by Fauci’s own bragging about his influence on a host of policy responses, including convincing Trump to lock the country down in March 2020 and extend the lockdown in April.

  He discusses the extended closure of schools, now almost universally seen as a bad idea, in the passive voice, as if the virus caused the school closures on its own. In Congressional testimony in 2020, Fauci exaggerated the harm to children from getting infected with Covid, instilling fear in parents that their kids might suffer from a rare complication of Covid infection if they sent them to school. It is impossible not to recall Fauci exaggerating the risk of children contracting HIV from casual contact.

  In May 2020, Fauci said that schools should reopen, conditional on “the landscape of infection with regard to testing.” But he also recommended six-foot social distancing, based on no evidence—a policy that made it nearly impossible to open schools. Fauci opposed churches holding services and mass, even outdoors, despite the lack of evidence that the disease spread there. His memoir provides little detail about the scientific data he relied on to support these policies.

  All this background makes his discussion of the Great Barrington Declaration all the more galling. The Declaration is a short policy document I wrote along with Martin Kulldorff (then of Harvard University) and Sunetra Gupta (of the University of Oxford) in October 2020.

  Motivated by recognizing that the lethality and hospitalization risk from Covid was 1,000 times lower in younger populations than in older, the document had two recommendations: (1) focused protection of vulnerable older populations, and (2) lifting lockdowns and reopening schools. It balanced the harms of the lockdowns against the risks of the disease in a way that recognized that Covid was not the only threat to human well-being and that the lockdowns themselves did considerable harm.

  Fauci denigrates the Great Barrington Declaration as being filled with “fake signatures,” though FOIAed emails from the era make it clear he knew tens of thousands of prominent scientists, doctors, and epidemiologists had co-signed it. In his memoir, he repeats a propaganda talking point about the Declaration, falsely claiming the document called for letting the virus “rip.” In reality, it called for better protection of vulnerable elderly people.

  Fauci asserted it was impossible to “sequester to protect the vulnerable” while simultaneously calling for the whole world to sequester for his lockdowns. His rhetoric about the Great Barrington Declaration poisoned the well of scientific consideration of our ideas. With brass-knuckle tactics, he won the policy fight, and many states locked down in late 2020 and into 2021.

  The virus spread anyway.

  Fauci does not mention the success of Swedish Covid policy, which eschewed lockdowns and instead—after some early errors—focused on protection of the vulnerable. Swedish all-cause excess death rates in the Covid era are among the lowest in Europe and much lower than American all-cause excess deaths. The Swedish health authorities never recommended closing schools for children 16 and under, and Swedish children, unlike American children, have no learning loss.

  If lockdowns were necessary to protect the population, as Fauci claims, Swedish outcomes should have been worse than American ones. Even within the United States, locked-down California had worse all-cause excess deaths numbers and economic outcomes than Florida, which opened in the summer of 2020. It is shocking that Fauci still does not seem to know these facts.

  Near the end of his memoir, Fauci writes that by March 2022, he knew “there would not be a clear end to the pandemic;” the world would need to learn to “live indefinitely with COVID.” He reasons that “perhaps the vaccine and prior infection had created a degree of background immunity.” This is as close as he comes in the book to admitting error.

  A part of me cannot help but admire Fauci, but the extent of damage caused by his hubris gets in the way. He once told an interviewer, “If you are trying to get at me as a public health official and a scientist, you’re really attacking not only Dr. Anthony Fauci, you’re attacking science….Science and the truth are being attacked.” Despite his career accomplishments, no one should give any man, much less Fauci, credit for being the embodiment of science itself.

  If Fauci’s goal in writing this memoir is to guide how historians write about him toward the positive, I do not think he succeeded.

  He will be remembered as a consequential figure for his contributions to the American approach to the HIV and Covid pandemics.

  But he will also be remembered as a cautionary tale of what can happen when too much power is invested in a single person for far too long.

  Republished from The Illusion of Consensus

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/16/2024 – 20:55

• These Are The Most & Least 'Green' Cities In America
  These Are The Most & Least ‘Green’ Cities In America

  WalletHub compared the country’s 100 largest cities across 28 “green” indicators.

  Voronoiapp.com visualizes the 10 greenest and 10 least green cities in America…

  

  The data used to create this ranking was collected as of September 4, 2024.

  To determine the greenest cities in America, WalletHub compared the 100 most populated cities across four key dimensions: 

  1) Environment, like air quality and greenhouse-gas emissions;

  2) Transportation, like commuters traveling alone, biking, and walking score;

  3) Energy Sources, like the share of renewable sources and

  4) Lifestyle & Policy, like community gardens, green job opportunities. (Excluding recycling efforts.)

  West Coast leads: California cities dominate the top 10.

  Arizona falls short: Four Arizona cities land in the bottom 10.

  Southern and Rust Belt cities struggle: Major metros like Houston and Detroit rank low.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/16/2024 – 20:30

• Here's What's Driving The Arctic Dimension Of The Russian-Indian Strategic Partnership
  Here’s What’s Driving The Arctic Dimension Of The Russian-Indian Strategic Partnership

  Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

  Rising Indian influence in the Arctic serves as a counterbalance to China’s, which meets both Russian and Western interests…

  

  The Russian-Indian joint working group on the Northern Sea Route (NSR) through the Arctic Ocean, which is expected to become one of the world’s most important trade routes, just held its first meeting last week in Delhi. It was formed as a result of Indian Prime Minister Modi’s trip to Moscow over the summer where he and Putin signed nine agreements for expanding cooperation in diverse fields. Here’s what’s driving the Arctic dimension of their decades-long strategic partnership:

  1. India Is Expected To Use The NSR For More Of Its Trade With Europe

  The ongoing Israeli-Resistance War indefinitely suspended work on the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) and inspired the Houthis to blockade the Red Sea, thus raising the costs of Indo-European trade and highlighting how strategically insecure it’s always been. India is therefore expected to use the NSR more in the future as a less risky route to complement the Red Sea one upon its reopening, thus adding context to the four points that’ll follow.

  2. Indian Shipyards Have The Capacity To Build Russian Icebreakers

  The Maritime Executive reported that Russia’s interest in having India build four non-nuclear icebreakers is due to its shipyards having the capacity that competitors in China, South Korea, and Japan will lack till at least 2028. They also noted that European shipyards can’t service such contracts due to sanctions. India plans to build more than 1,000 ships in the next decade so it makes perfect sense for Russia to invest some of its enormous rupee stockpile into this industry with a view towards developing the NSR.

  3. India Also Has Enough Extra Sailors To Train For Navigating The NSR

  Last week’s meeting also discussed training Indian sailors, who are the third most numerous in the world, for navigating the NSR. A 2017 Russian law banned shipping oil, natural gas, and coal along that route under a foreign flag, while a 2018 one mandates that these ships will have to be built in Russia. Given Russia’s naturally declining population, experienced Indian sailors could be contracted to help navigate these ships instead of relying on Central Asian migrants, who the locals don’t want any more of.

  4. India Could Invest In Russian Arctic Energy Under Certain Conditions

  Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project, from which a Chinese company withdrew over the summer, could see Indian investment under certain conditions. Its Oil Secretary said last month that his country won’t get involved for now due to the sanctions, but an exemption might be possible if it helps broker an end to the Ukrainian Conflict. Kiev reportedly prefers for India to play this role instead of China, and if it can pull this off, then the West might reward it accordingly in order to reduce China’s influence in the Arctic.

  5. India Plays An Indispensable Role In The Global Balance Of Influence

  And finally, Russia relies on India to preemptively avert disproportionate dependence on China, which readers can learn more about here, here, and here. Despite Western pressure on India to distance itself from Russia, the West is gradually beginning to appreciate this role as well, hence why it hasn’t imposed maximum sanctions against India for their reportedly covert tech trade. Rising Indian influence in the Arctic therefore serves as a counterbalance to China’s, which meets both Russian and Western interests.

  Russian-Indian cooperation in the Arctic is very promising for the reasons that were enumerated, though it’ll be held back from its full potential so long as India remains reluctant to defy Western sanctions on the Arctic LNG II project. Considering India’s indispensable role in the global balance of influence, it and the West should enter into discreet talks on what could be done to receive an exemption, which would then enable India to more effectively compete with China in the Arctic.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/16/2024 – 20:05

• Pro-Life Mother Begins 3.5 Year Prison Sentence After Biden-Harris DOJ Threw The Book At Her
  Pro-Life Mother Begins 3.5 Year Prison Sentence After Biden-Harris DOJ Threw The Book At Her

  Bevelyn Williams – a pro-life activist and the mother of a young daughter, is reporting to an Alabama prison today to serve a 3.5 year sentence for unlawful assembly after the Biden-Harris DOJ threw the book at her for taking part in a two-day pro-life protest outside a New York City Planned Parenthood in June of 2020.

  

  “I wanted to give you an important update,” Williams wrote in a Tuesday Facebook post. “My legal team worked tirelessly to submit a stay of appeal so I could be home on bail while appealing this case for the sake of my daughter and husband. Unfortunately, the judge, who also sentenced me, denied the appeal. I have now been assigned a federal facility to report to and must surrender tomorrow at FCI Aliceville.”

  Hello Everyone,

  I wanted to give you all an important update. My legal team worked tirelessly to submit a stay of appeal so I could be home on bail while appealing this case for the sake of my daughter and husband. Unfortunately, the judge, who also sentenced me, denied the… pic.twitter.com/fSCSkxS255

  — Bevelyn Williams (@MrsBevelynW) October 15, 2024

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  Her husband recorded a video as they were headed to the prison:

  Biden/Harris administration has made my husband a single father today. I am on my way to turn myself into federal prison where I am scheduled to serve three years in federal prison for unlawful assembly. Share this and make mothers and fathers of this nation aware of what’s going… pic.twitter.com/4uEfKi9mCN

  — Bevelyn Williams (@MrsBevelynW) October 16, 2024

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  🚨 ATTENTION AMERICANS: Kamala Harris’ DoJ is sending a black woman to prison for 3.5 years for peacefully protesting outside of an abortion clinic. @hodgetwins

  “Tomorrow I will drive my wife to a federal prison in Alabama as her offense is “unlawful assembly” 3 1/2 years in… pic.twitter.com/oRm1EEYKDR

  — Publius (@OcrazioCornPop) October 16, 2024

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  The DOJ accused Williams of having “repeatedly intimidated and interfered with individuals seeking and providing critical reproductive health services. She did so by physically blocking access to clinics, threatening staff, and by force.”

  That said, her category of offense was unlawful assembly.

  “Please share this people need to know the truth 41 months, 3 1/2 years for unlawful assembly under the Biden Harris administration!!” she posted to X.

  This is my surrender paperwork! I just want you guys to know what the media said about me being violent is a lie! My category of offense is unlawful assembly! Please share this people need to know the truth 41 months, 3 1/2 years for unlawful assembly under the Biden Harris… pic.twitter.com/kXEueW1cvh

  — Bevelyn Williams (@MrsBevelynW) October 16, 2024

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  Williams voted for Trump before taking off for prison.

  Waiting in line to vote with my wife @MrsBevelynW and daughter. #TRUMP2024 pic.twitter.com/NSiMc7Rwdp

  — Rickey Victory (@MrRickeyVictory) October 16, 2024

  Williams set up a GiveSendGo account, which can be found here.

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/16/2024 – 19:40

• Disaster: Kamala.exe Crashes In Fox Interview Meltdown
  Disaster: Kamala.exe Crashes In Fox Interview Meltdown

  Kamala Harris appeared in a Fox News interview with Bret Baier Wednesday night, where she alternated between deflection, blame, and then had a complete meltdown when shown a clip of Donald Trump (full interview here).

  

  For starters, when asked if she would take responsibility for the flood of illegal immigrants after she and Joe Biden ripped up Trump’s executive orders on immigration on day one, Harris spat out a well-work Democrat talking point about ‘Trump killing a bill’ that would have saved the day. Baier – a NeverTrumper who deserves credit for this one – pushed back.

  Kamala can’t give a single straight answer to Bret Baier.

  This is bad. pic.twitter.com/hWCmsYDrDu

  — Breaking911 (@Breaking911) October 16, 2024

   As Fox‘s Bill Melugin points out, the Democrat bill “would have given pathway to amnesty to millions of illegal immigrants and it failed despite Democrats controlling the White House & Congress.”

  NEW: VP Kamala Harris dodges question when colleague @BretBaier repeatedly asks her how many illegal aliens the Biden/Harris admin has released into the US.

  When asked if she regrets terminating Remain in Mexico, she again dodges and pivots to saying they tried to pass an…

  — Bill Melugin (@BillMelugin_) October 16, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsKamala.exe Bluescreens

  When asked to explain why more than 70% of people say the country is on the wrong track.

  “That track follows three-and-a-half years of you being vice president and President Biden being president. That is what they’re saying. 79 percent of them. If you’re turning the page – you’re been in office for three-and-a-half years…“

  To which Harris offered the strangest answer yet – “And Donald Trump has been running for office…”

  There are so many clips I want to share, but Bret Baier saying, “I actually don’t, what are you talking about,” was incredible. Watch this clip on Kamala turning the page: pic.twitter.com/OMjUDKOWBu

  — Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) October 16, 2024

  Kamala Enraged!

  When shown a clip of Trump denying he would ‘turn the American military on the American people,’ Harris went ballistic…

  NEW: Kamala Harris fumes after Fox News has a clip ready of Trump after she claimed he called Americans “the enemy within.”

  Kamala: Trump is the one who talks about an enemy within…

  Baier: We actually asked that question to the former president today. Here it is.

  Kamala:… pic.twitter.com/q6qHt6Q9QV

  — Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 16, 2024

  Steve Bannon and Peter Navarro and a few hundred J6 protesters would like to have a word about weaponized government…

  Word Salad On The Menu

  What did you expect? Kamala simply can’t answer questions…

  BAIER: If Trump is as bad as you claim, why is he beating you in the polls?

  KAMALA: It’s not supposed to be a cake walk.

  BAIER: So are the American people misguided? Are they stupid? What is it?

  KAMALA: 🦗🦗🦗 pic.twitter.com/5p94JYr5sR

  — Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) October 16, 2024

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  Kamala Harris is asked when she realized Joe Biden’s mental faculties were diminished..

  [a pause] pic.twitter.com/XWMZIgTER7

  — Russian Market (@runews) October 16, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Kamala Harris tells Bret Baier to stop interrupting her

  ‘I’m not finished.’ pic.twitter.com/3UGJkd7Auh

  — Charlie Spiering (@charliespiering) October 16, 2024

  According to Baier and others, not only did Harris show up late for the interview, her staff was desperate to end the interview…

  THIS IS EMBARASSING.

  Bret Baier says Kamala’s staff was DESPERATELY trying to end the Fox interview

  “I’m talking, like four people, waving their hands like, ‘It’s gotta stop!”

  pic.twitter.com/Hphq6QCvEd

  — Graham Allen (@GrahamAllen_1) October 16, 2024

  After the interview, Bret Baier said that as he ws interviewing her, there FOUR of @KamalaHarris‘ people frantically demanding he wrap the interview early. He also said she showed up late, even after her people twice cut the time of the interview down shorter. This should be…

  — Duke Santos 2.0 (@unashamedusa) October 16, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  To my Democratic friends: maybe you should consider swapping Kamala Harris for Joe Biden.

  — JD Vance (@JDVance) October 16, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/16/2024 – 19:25

• 10 Signs That The Economy Is A Giant Mess As The Election Approaches
  10 Signs That The Economy Is A Giant Mess As The Election Approaches

  Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

  The health of the economy has been a major determining factor in many past presidential elections, and the health of the economy is certainly going to have an enormous influence on the outcome of the upcoming presidential election.  In fact, according to a poll that was just released by Rasmussen the economy is the number one issue by a wide margin for voters in the ultra-important swing state of Pennsylvania.  

  Unfortunately for the Democrats, most Americans are not pleased with how the economy is performing, and it appears that conditions are now taking another turn for the worse.  

  

  The following are 10 signs that the economy is a giant mess as the election approaches…

  #1 The number of Americans filing first time claims for unemployment benefits just hit the highest level in over a year…

  The number of people filing for unemployment for the first time was at its highest levels in more than a year, partly due to storm damage and labor stoppages.

  Initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct. 5 came in at 258,000, up 33,000 from last week’s level of 225,000, and the highest since it hit the same level in August 2023, data from the Labor Department shows.

  #2 According to Primerica’s latest Financial Security Monitor report, the percentage of middle-income households that “rate their personal financial situation negatively” has hit the highest level that they have ever recorded…

  Primerica’s latest Financial Security Monitor report for the third quarter found 55% of middle-income households now rate their personal financial situation negatively, a 6-point jump from the previous survey.

  “For the first time in a year, a majority of middle-income households are feeling negative about their personal finances,” said Glenn Williams, CEO of Primerica. “In fact, this latest report represents the highest negative rating we’ve seen since we began fielding the survey exactly four years ago.”

  #3 I am old enough to remember a time in this country when you were set for life if you had a million dollars.  Unfortunately, thanks to our endless cost of living crisis it now costs 4.4 million dollars to live “the American Dream” over the course of a lifetime…

  You can live the American Dream, but it will cost you.

  The lifetime tab for such aspirations as owning a home, driving new cars, raising kids and taking annual vacations comes to a cool $4.4 million, according to Investopedia, the financial media site.

  That’s more than the average American earns in a lifetime.

  #4 The company that produces more french fries than anyone else in North America is cutting production and laying off workers due to a dramatic slowdown in consumer demand…

  Lamb Weston, the largest producer of french fries in North America and a major supplier to fast-food chains, restaurants and grocery stores, is closing a production plant in Washington state. The company announced last week that it would lay off nearly 400 employees, or 4% of its workforce, and temporarily cut production lines in response to slowing customer demand.

  #5 At one time Boeing was flying high, but now it has decided to lay off approximately 10 percent of its entire workforce…

  The CEO of Boeing told employees late Friday that the company plans to cut 10% of its total staff “over the coming months.”

  “Our business is in a difficult position, and it is hard to overstate the challenges we face together,” said Kelly Ortberg, who started at CEO of the troubled aircraft maker two months ago and has been dealing with a strike by 33,000 hourly workers for half his time on the job.

  #6 The banking industry continues to deeply struggle.  So far this year, banks in the United States have permanently shut down over 700 local branches…

  US banks closed more than 700 branches in the first nine months of the year, forcing thousands to travel further to access vital services.

  Bank of America closed the most locations of any bank, shuttering 132 between January and September.

  U.S. Bank followed swiftly behind, having closed 101 of their own branches.

  #7 After 75 years, True Value has been forced to file for bankruptcy and will be “selling substantially all of its operations to a rival”…

  True Value, a 75-year old hardware store brand, has filed for bankruptcy and is selling substantially all of its operations to a rival, the company announced Monday.

  In a press release, True Value said it will continue day-to-day operations of selling hardware and other homeware tools to its 4,500 independently operated locations during the Chapter 11 process, which includes a $153 million stalking horse bid from rival company Do it Best.

  #8 Did you ever think that you would live to see a day when hundreds of 7-Eleven stores would be closing?  Sadly, that time has now arrived…

  Several hundred “underperforming” 7-Eleven locations across North America are closing, the convenience store announced.

  Seven & I Holdings, the chain’s Japan-based parent company, revealed in an earnings report Thursday that 444 locations of 7-Eleven are shutting down because of a variety of issues, including slowing sales, declining traffic, inflationary pressures and a decrease in cigarette purchases.

  #9 Home Depot apparently believes that rough times are ahead, because they are dumping millions of square feet of warehouse space…

  Home Depot is hastily exiting warehouse space, to the tune of 3.2 million square feet in a month, according to Bisnow.

  Since late August, Home Depot has put up nearly 4 million square feet of warehouse space for sublease, including a 1.3M SF Phoenix warehouse and a 1.1M SF distribution center in the Inland Empire, according to CoStar Analytics.

  #10 At this point, things are so bad that even Disney is laying off workers…

  According to sources cited by Deadline, Disney is pushing ahead with new layoffs as part of a broader “cost-saving initiative.” About 300 employees across Disney’s corporate divisions will be impacted this week.

  The layoffs of 300 employees began on Tuesday and will continue until the end of the week. They are all US-based employees who work across the company’s corporate operations, including legal, HR, finance, and communications.

  If you have recently lost your job, I feel very badly for you, because the employment market has gotten a lot more “complicated” than it was in the old days.

  Once upon a time, being good at what you do was enough.

  But now other considerations are often more important than pure merit…

  A top Oregon state official has been put on administrative leave after a pink-haired, DEI-obsessed subordinate complained he was making hiring decisions based on qualifications instead of personal identity considerations, according to a report.

  Mike Shaw, who until recently served as the Oregon Department of Forestry’s second-in-command, was put on blast by Megan Donecker, the department’s former DEI strategy officer, for looking “beyond gender and identity in hiring, seeking only candidates most qualified for the job,” OregonLive reported.

  He was formally placed on administrative leave Aug. 6 after Donecker filed a formal complaint, according to the Daily Mail.

  Isn’t that nuts?

  Our society is getting crazier with each passing day, and I am deeply concerned about where all of this is heading.

  Sadly, the tough economic times that we are experiencing now are not even worth comparing to the pain that is coming if we don’t turn things around.

  Our system is literally crumbling right in front of our eyes, and unless something dramatic happens economic conditions in this country will soon become extremely harsh.

  *  *  *

  Michael’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/16/2024 – 19:15

• Where Americans Should Retire Vs Where They Actually Retire
  Where Americans Should Retire Vs Where They Actually Retire

  This chart, via Voronoiapp.com, compares the top states for retirement (based on five metrics analyzed by experts), with those states where retirees are actually moving, as indicated by net migration data.

  

  Figures are sourced from Smart Asset and Bankrate, as of 2024.

  Bankrate’s study judged all fifty states by five key metrics: affordability (40%), well-being (25%), healthcare (20%), weather (10%), crime (5%). Check out our graphic on their method and how each state performed.

  The experts and retirees only agree on three states that are best for retirement – Florida, South Carolina, and Georgia – indicating that there’s a divergence between the data analyzers and where retirees actually want to live.

  It’s also clear most retirees are moving for warm summers and mild winters.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/16/2024 – 18:50

• Political Analyst Predicts 'Biggest Mental Health Crisis In American History' If Trump Wins
  Political Analyst Predicts ‘Biggest Mental Health Crisis In American History’ If Trump Wins

  Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via modernity.news,

  Political analyst Mark Halperin predicts that America will experience the biggest mental health crisis in its history if Trump wins the election and that it will lead to violence.

  

  Halperin made the explosive comments during a sit down interview with Tucker Carlson.

  Given that many Democrats think Trump winning again is the worst thing that could happen to the country, Carlson asked Halperin how Kamala Harris voters would react.

  “I say this not flippantly, I think it will be the cause of the greatest mental health crisis in the history of the country,” Halperin responded.

  NEW: Mark Halperin predicts there will be the biggest mental health crisis in American history if Trump wins, predicts Democrats will resort to violence.

  Halperin predicts there will be workplace fights and violent protests launched by the left.

  “I think it will cause the… pic.twitter.com/lQNveS2lIY

  — Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 15, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The pollster added that a Trump win would completely derail tens of millions of Americans’ connection to their country and their fellow citizens.

  He went on to add that mental health professionals will be overwhelmed with people requiring support and will lead to “trauma in the workplace” as well as “alcoholism” and “broken marriages.”

  “They think he’s the worst person possible to become president,” said Halperin, noting that the crisis won’t pass in between the election and Trump’s inauguration, but will be a “sustained,” “unprecedented” and “hideous” fallout.

  Halperin said the country was not ready for what is coming if Trump beats Harris and that some level of “violence” will inevitably ensue, in the form of riots, workplace fights and even unrest during things like kids birthday parties.

  The pollster said for tens of millions of Americans, Trump winning would be “so traumatic” that it will become “impossible for even the most mentally healthy person to truly process and incorporate in the daily life.”

  “They think that their fellow citizens supporting Trump is a sign of fundamental evil at the heart of their fellow citizens and of the nation,” concluded Halperin.

  Trump’s first term in office was characterized by what became known as Trump Derangement Syndrome, where everything Trump said or did became a reason for some Americans to flip out and engage in deranged behavior.

  At one point, some actually took to screaming helplessly at the sky because they simply couldn’t accept that he was in power.

  * * *

  Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/16/2024 – 18:25

• "Superhuman": Nvidia CEO Blown Away After Musk Sets Up 100,000 GPUs In 19 Days
  “Superhuman”: Nvidia CEO Blown Away After Musk Sets Up 100,000 GPUs In 19 Days

  Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says Elon Musk pulled off a “superhuman” feat by setting up a supercluster of 100,000 H200 Blackwell GPUs in just 19 days – a process he says takes everyone else “one year to accomplish.” 

  

  According to Tom’s Hardware, the xAI team reportedly went from “concept” to full-ready compatibility with Nvidia’s “gear” in less than three weeks – including running xAI’s first AI training run.

  From start to finish, the process involved building the massive X factory where the GPUs would reside and equipping the entire factory with liquid cooling and power to make all 200,000 GPUs operational. That’s not to mention all of the coordination between Nvidia’s and Elon Musk’s engineering teams to get all of the hardware and infrastructure shipped and installed precisely and in a coordinated manner.

  What’s more, Huang says that networking Nvidia’s gear isn’t as simple as networking traditional data center servers. “The number of wires that goes in one node…the back of a computer is all wires,” he said, adding that Musk’s integration of 100,000 H200 GPUs has “never been done before,” and probably won’t be repeated by anyone else anytime soon.

  Watch:

  Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on Elon Musk and @xAI

  “Never been done before – xAI did in 19 days what everyone else needs one year to accomplish.

  That is superhuman – There’s only one person in the world who could do that – Elon Musk is singular in his understanding of engineering.” pic.twitter.com/oNZuH97RhJ

  — ALEX (@ajtourville) October 13, 2024

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/16/2024 – 18:00

• Joy Reid Claims Black Male Trump Voters Are Part Of A 'Global Fascist Phenomenon'
  Joy Reid Claims Black Male Trump Voters Are Part Of A ‘Global Fascist Phenomenon’

  While it’s true that not many Americans watch MSNBC’s Joy Reid and take her seriously (her show ‘The ReidOut’ is #14 on the list of most popular news commentary shows in the US according to viewership), she does remain a symbol of the woke left and her views often give us a glimpse into the collective hive mind of progressives.  Similar to women on shows like ‘The View’, Reid is a standard bearer for perpetually angry, post-menopausal cat ladies that do sadly tend to vote in large numbers. 

  These are the same women coming out in droves to support Kamala Harris based purely on her gender and skin color.  They are the same women that supported Hillary Clinton in 2016 simply because they wanted a woman president and they didn’t care who it was.  And generally speaking it is these kinds of women that use shaming tactics as a means to control the people around them.  Their only source of power in life is to henpeck others into submission.

  

  The problem for Harris is that childless cat ladies are not a large enough demographic to ensure a presidential win; she needs men to vote for her as well.  As many critics have pointed out, this is rather ironic given the fact that Democrats and leftist activists have spent the better part of the last decade calling masculinity a “toxic” and oppressive social disease that needs to be eliminated.  They have worked hard to demonize all men as potential rapists, misogynists, mass shooters and fascists.  Now, not surprisingly, progressive women want men to lift them out of the hole they’ve dug for themselves.  

  But they don’t want to admit they were wrong about men or apologize for their behavior and accusations, no.  That would be asking far too much.  Instead, they have turned to the same old shaming tactics they always use to get what they want.

  This week Joy Reid suggested that Kamala Harris’ plunge in the polls is due in large part to a ‘global fascist phenomenon’ led by white males.  She also argues that pockets of ‘black and brown men’ are a part of this supposed fascist takeover.

  Joy Reid completely loses it on air and is now claiming black and brown men voting for Trump are fascists

  Keep it up, this is exactly why Kamala Harris is losing the male vote

  The Democrat desperation is glorious

  pic.twitter.com/tRp3Cyj9pN

  — Drew Hernandez (@DrewHLive) October 15, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The campaign to drag black voters back to the Democrat plantation continues.

  Reid’s comments come not long after Barack Obama (also a henpecker) tried to shame black men into voting for Harris by accusing them of bias against her because she’s a woman.  As 2016 taught Americans, it’s foolish to blindly trust the polls and the election isn’t over until it’s over – That said, numerous indicators suggest that Harris does not inspire trust or optimism among most Americans. 

  Minority voters including black men have been loudly explaining why they don’t like Harris, and her being a woman is rarely on their list of complaints.

  Oh man. Black Americans are DONE with Barack Obama. Listen to black voters respond to Obama trying to shame them into voting for Kamala.

  These responses are🔥🔥🔥

  We can now officially call Obama’s smug speech the greatest political backfire of all time… pic.twitter.com/m0e0Weh3ub

  — Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) October 14, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Here’s what most American voters care about according to the surveys:  The failing economy and stagflation, mass immigration and open borders and foreign policy leading to WWIII.  That’s it.  It doesn’t matter if they are white, black, brown, man or woman, these are the issues that concern people the most.  Electing the first black woman president is irrelevant compared to these problems. 

  Black male voters in particular are walking away from the political left, not because they are turning “fascist”, but because they’re finally waking up to the game being played with their futures.       

   

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/16/2024 – 17:44

• SBA's Disaster Loan Program Runs Out Of Money As Hurricanes Drive Demand
  SBA’s Disaster Loan Program Runs Out Of Money As Hurricanes Drive Demand

  Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

  The Small Business Administration’s (SBA) disaster assistance loan program is out of money after hurricanes Helene and Milton struck parts of the United States, the agency has announced.

  

  In an Oct. 15 press release, the SBA said funds for the program have been exhausted following increased demand from disaster survivors in the wake of multiple extreme weather events, including the two hurricanes that made landfall in September and October.

  The agency will therefore be pausing new loan offers for its direct, low-interest, long-term loans to disaster survivors.

  The SBA encouraged individuals and small businesses to continue applying for loans, citing assurances from congressional leaders that additional funding will be provided once they return to Capitol Hill in November.

  The agency’s loan application portal will also remain open, while its disaster centers and in-person staff will continue to be deployed across the country, the press release said.

  “The agency will continue to accept new applications and ready borrowers to get their disaster loan offers as soon as possible once Congress appropriates funds,” the SBA stated.

  Additionally, the SBA noted it may continue to make a “small number of new loan offers during this time,” using funds made available through loan cancellations and similar actions.

  The SBA was created in 1953 and offers low-interest loans to businesses, homeowners, renters, and private nonprofit organizations to help them recover from federally declared disasters.

  Thousands Seek Relief Funds

  Through its loan program, homeowners can receive up to $500,000 to replace or repair their primary residence, while businesses and private nonprofit organizations can get up to $2 million to cover disaster-related physical damage and economic injuries that aren’t fully covered by insurance.

  In a statement, SBA Administrator Isabel Casillas Guzman stressed the importance of getting swift financial relief to communities, noting it helps in both recovery efforts and stabilizing local economies.

  “While we await Congress to provide much-needed funding, we strongly encourage eligible businesses and households to apply for SBA disaster loans,” Guzman said.

  “SBA will continue to support homeowners, renters, businesses, and nonprofits in processing their applications to ensure they receive assistance quickly once funds are replenished,” she added.

  The latest announcement from the SBA comes after President Joe Biden warned lawmakers this month that the agency’s disaster loan program was set to run out of funding “in a matter of weeks” and well before Congress plans to reconvene in November.

  Biden urged lawmakers to act immediately to replenish the disaster loan program, although he stopped short of stating exactly how much money the program needs.

  It comes amid recovery efforts from hurricanes Helene and Milton,  the latter of which Biden said has caused around $50 billion worth of damage.

  In its latest press release, the SBA said it has received around 37,000 applications from those impacted by Helene, and has made over 700 Helene loan offers totaling about $48 million.

  For Milton, the agency has already received over 12,000 applications, it said.

  “Importantly, despite this funding lapse, borrowers who already have a loan offer will continue to receive disbursements, and borrowers who already have existing loans may continue with servicing actions and loan modifications,” the agency said.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/16/2024 – 17:40

• WTI Rallies After API Reports Across-The-Board Inventory Draws
  WTI Rallies After API Reports Across-The-Board Inventory Draws

  Oil prices dipped very marginally today (with WTI holding above $70), down for the fourth day in a row as traders focused on an uncertain demand outlook – particularly from China, the world’s largest crude importer.

  Additionally, traders have “largely priced in the Middle East tensions,” and the base-case scenario for many of them is that there will be a limited attack on Iranian energy facilities, if any, from Israel, Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets, told MarketWatch.

  However, “the fact is that we are looking at a situation where two countries are attacking each other directly,” he added.

  “[It] is a very serious situation because currently the U.S. is very much mediating the matter and tensions are incredibly high on both sides.”

  “On the demand side, market participants are looking for clearer signals regarding China’s fiscal policy, as uncertainties about its economic recovery affect oil-demand expectations,” said Christopher Tahir, senior market strategist at Exness, in emailed comments.

  “Both the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency have lowered their forecasts for global oil-demand growth in 2024, mainly due to expected changes in China’s consumption,” he noted.

  For now, the recent hurricanes are playing havoc with any analysis of the real-time supply/demand regime based on API/DOE data.

  API

  • Crude -1.58mm (+1.9mm exp)

  • Cushing +410k

  • Gasoline -5.93mm (-2.0mm exp)

  • Distillates -2.67mm (-2.2mm exp)

  After the large gasoline draw the prior week (and big crude build), the effect of Hurricanes Helene and Milton continue to ripple through physical energy markets. API reports major product draws and a surprise crude draw (build expected) last week…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  WTI was hovering just above $70 ahead of the API print and rallied into the green for the day after the print…

  

  From a price perspective, Zaye Capital Markets’ Aslam believes oil is very much back to “normal fundamentals,” with the Chinese demand equation influencing the market.

  “So in the absence of any serious geopolitical tension, the path of least resistance is skewed to the downside,” he said.

  Tomorrow (a day late due to the Columbus Day holiday), we will get the official weekly data on US production, demand, and inventories.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/16/2024 – 17:20