Oct 22

Today’s News 22nd October 2023

  • Escobar: Russia's Neutrality Ballet On Israel-Palestine
    Escobar: Russia’s Neutrality Ballet On Israel-Palestine

    Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Cradle,

    Photo Credit: The Cradle

    Is it possible that the philo-Semitic Russian President Vladimir Putin is slowly but surely re-evaluating his geopolitical assessment of Israel? To call this the key riddle in Moscow’s corridors of power is actually an understatement. 

    There are no outward signs of such a seismic shift – at least when it comes to the officially “neutral” Russian position on the intractable Israel-Palestine drama.

    Except for one stunning statement last Friday at the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Summit in Bishkek, when Putin blasted Israel’s “cruel methods” employed to blockade Gaza, and compared it with “the siege of Leningrad during World War Two.”

    “That’s unacceptable,” declared the Russian president, and warned that when all of Gaza’s 2.2 million civilians “have to suffer, including women and children, it’s hard for anyone to agree with this.”

    Putin’s comments may have been one hint at the changes underway in the frustratingly opaque Russia-Israel relationship. A close second is this very important article published last Friday on Vzglyad, a security strategy website close to the Kremlin, diplomatically titled “Why Russia remains neutral in the conflict in the Middle East.”   

    It’s crucial to note that only six months ago and mirroring a near consensus among Russia’s intelligence community, Vzglyad editors were calling for Moscow to shift its considerable political weight toward supporting the number one issue for the Arab and Islamic worlds.  

    The article noted the key points Putin voiced in Bishkek: there’s no alternative to negotiations; Tel Aviv was subjected to a brutal attack and has the right to defend itself; a real settlement is possible only via an independent Palestinian state with its capital in East Jerusalem.  

    The Russian president favors the UN’s original “two states” solution and believes that a Palestinian state should be established “by peaceful means.” But, as much as the conflict was “a direct result of the failed policy of the United States in the Middle East,” Putin rejects Tel Aviv’s plans to launch a ground operation in Gaza. 

    This qualified hedging is certainly not evidence of Putin swinging to what is a near consensus among the General Staff, the siloviki in several intel agencies, and his ministry of defense: They consider that Israel may be a de facto enemy of the Russian Federation, allied with Ukraine, the US and NATO.

    Follow the money

    Tel Aviv has been extremely cautious not to frontally antagonize Russia in Ukraine, and this may be a direct consequence of the notoriously cordial relations between Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.  

    Yet way more consequential than Israel on the geopolitical chessboard are Moscow’s evolving relations with Arab states today, especially OPEC+ partner Saudi Arabia which has helped thwart western efforts to control oil prices.

    Also highly central to Russia’s regional policymaking is its strategic partnership with Iran, which has reaped dividends in Syria and the Caucasus, and which helps contain US expansionism. Finally, Moscow’s complex, multi-layered, back-and-forth with Ankara is crucial to Russian economic and geopolitical ambitions in Eurasia.  

    All three West Asian powers are Muslim-majority states, important affiliations for a multipolar Russia that hosts its own sizable Muslim population.

    And for these three regional actors, without distinction, the current collective punishment of Gaza transgresses any possible red line.     

    Israel is also not that significant anymore in Moscow’s financial considerations. Since the 1990s, immense quantities of Russian funds have been transiting to Israel, but now, a substantial portion is returning right back to Russia. 

    The notorious case of billionaire Mikhail Friedman illustrates this new reality well. The oligarch quit his home in the UK and moved to Israel a week before the launch of Al-Aqsa Flood – which in turn had him hastily grab his Russian passport and head to Moscow for safety. 

    Friedman, who leads the Alfa Group with major interests in telecom, banking, retail, and insurance, and is a wealthy survivor of the 1998 financial crisis, is suspected by the Russians of “contributing” as much as $150 million to the enemy regime in Kiev.

    The reaction by Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin could not have been sharper – or less concerned about Israel’s sentiments on the matter: 

    “Anyone who left the country and engaged in reprehensible acts, celebrating gunfire on Russian territory and wishing victory to the Nazi Kiev regime, should realize they are not only unwelcome here, but if they do return, Magadan (a notorious transit port to the gulag in the Stalin era) is waiting for them.”   

    Russophobia meets collective punishment

    As the collective west resorted to a monomaniacal “We are all Israelis now,” the Kremlin’s strategy is to visibly position itself as the mediator of choice in this conflict – not only for the Arab and Muslim worlds but also for the Global South/Global Majority.

    That was the purpose of this week’s Russian draft resolution at the UN Security Council calling for a ceasefire in Gaza, which was predictably shot down by the usual suspects. 

    Three permanent Security Council members – US, UK and France, plus their neo-colony Japan – voted against it. To the rest of the world, this looked like exactly what it was: irrational western Russophobia and US puppet states validating Israel’s genocidal bombardment of civilian-dense Gaza.  

    Off the record, intelligence analysts point to how the Russian General Staff, the intel apparatus, and the ministry of defense seem to be organically aligning with global sentiments on Israel’s excessive aggressions.  

    The problem is that official and public Russian criticism of Netanyahu’s serial, psychotic incitation to violence, alongside his rightwing National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, has been non-existent. 

    Moscow insiders insist that the Kremlin’s official “neutral” position is frontally clashing with its defense and security agencies – especially GRU and SVR – which will never forget that Israel was directly involved in the killing of Russians in Syria. 

    That view has strengthened since September 2018 when Israel’s Air Force used an Ilyushin-20M electronic reconnaissance plane as cover against Syrian missiles, causing it to be shot down and killing all 15 Russians on board.    

    This silence in the corridors of power is mirrored by silence in the public sphere. There has been no debate in the Duma about the Russian position on Israel-Palestine. And no debate at the Security Council since early October.

    Yet a subtle hint was offered by Patriarch Kirill, the leader of the Russian Orthodox Church, who stressed that “peaceful coexistence” has a “religious dimension” and requires “just peace.” This does not exactly align with the announced ethnic cleansing of “human animals” (copyright Israeli Defense Ministry) in Gaza.  

    Along some corridors close to power, there’s an alarming rumor of an intricate shadow play between Moscow and Washington, wherein the Americans will deal with Israel in exchange for the Russians dealing with Ukraine. 

    While this would seal the west’s already ongoing process of throwing the sweaty sweatshirt actor in Kiev under the bus, the Kremlin is highly unlikely to trust any American deal, and certainly not one that would marginalize Russian influence in strategic West Asia.

    This two-state solution is dead 

    Russia’s “neutrality” ballet will continue. Moscow is impressing on Tel Aviv the notion that even within the framework of its strategic partnership with Iran, weapons that could threaten Israel – as in, ending up with Hezbollah and Hamas – will not be exported. The quid pro quo of this arrangement would be that Israel also not sell anything Russian-threatening to Kiev either. 

    But unlike the US and the UK, Russia will not designate Hamas as a terrorist organization. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov has been very forthright on this issue: Moscow keeps its contacts with both sides; its “number one priority” is “the interest of the country’s (Russian) citizens who live both in Palestine and Israel”; and Russia will remain “a party that has the potential to participate in the settlement processes.”  

    Neutrality, of course, may reach a dead end. Overwhelmingly, for the Arab and Muslim states actively courted by the Kremlin, the dismantlement of Zionist-led settler-colonialism should be the “number one priority.”

    This implies that the two-state solution, for all practical purposes, is fully dead and buried. Yet there’s no evidence anyone, not least Moscow, is ready to admit it. 

    The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle or ZeroHedge

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/21/2023 – 23:20

  • Intelligence Failures – Again
    Intelligence Failures – Again

    Authored by Pete Hoekstra via the Gatestone Institute,

    (Image source: iStock)

    In light of the devastating and deadly terrorist attack executed by Hamas against Israel on October 7, many are correctly calling the failure to intercept and prevent the assault an “intelligence failure.” Many are especially surprised given the vaunted, basically legendary, status almost universally accorded Israel’s national security apparatus.

    This, however, is not the only recent intelligence failure, or failure by political leaders to anticipate emerging threats. According to a Brookings report examining the U.S. intelligence failure and reorganization following the 9/11 terrorist attacks against America:

    “In the aftermath of 9/11 everyone, from elected officials and national security experts to ordinary citizens had one question: how could this happen to a nation with such an enormous and expensive military and intelligence architecture?”

    Despite warnings from the U.S. Intelligence Community, the Biden administration failed to anticipate or plan for the dramatic and quick collapse of Afghanistan’s government when U.S. troops were withdrawn. And while the Intelligence Community correctly and publicly warned of Russia’s impending invasion of Ukraine, it failed to predict the tenacity of Ukrainian fighters defending their homeland and instead forecast an almost Afghanistan-style collapse in a matter of days. General Mark Milley, then Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, even warned lawmakers that “a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine could result in the fall of Kyiv within 72-hours and could come at a cost of 15,000 Ukrainian troop deaths and 4,000 Russian troop deaths,” according to lawmakers he briefed behind closed-doors.

    These misses once again have citizens asking if our intelligence agencies and political leaders are capable of keeping them safe. The short answer, unfortunately, is no. Terrorists and our enemies only have to be right once, while our intelligence services need to be correct 100% of the time. Just look at Pearl Harbor.

    It is not unreasonable to expect that Israeli or US intelligence should have been able to detect the 10/7 attacks on Israel ahead of time, especially so close to the 50th anniversary of the surprise Yom Kippur War in 1973. What, then, led to the failure? While Israel will certainly review its intelligence posture to determine its shortcomings, we already know some of the challenges the Intelligence Community faces on the U.S. side.

    The Middle East, Israel, Gaza, the West Bank, Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah are all high on the Intelligence Community’s radar, given the volatility of the restive region. All the same, Washington’s leadership also was not expecting the 10/7 attacks. A little more than a week prior, Biden’s National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, was talking-up successes in the Middle East, allowing the U.S. to focus on other areas regions of the world. The bold conclusion made by Sullivan at the time was that “the Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades.”

    He could not have been more wrong. Boiling just under the surface was a terrorist attack that would result in more than 1,400 Israelis killed, at least 31 Americans killed, atrocities against Israeli civilians that include beheaded babies and babies burned alive, as well as scores of Israeli and international hostages whom Hamas terrorists forcibly abducted from Israel to Gaza, presumably being held in tunnels.

    The failure of the U.S. intelligence community has three components:

    1. It has become politically charged and lost focus on its mission protecting Americans, instead engaging in partisan politics.
    2. It continues to focus on technological intelligence collection rather than the difficult and risky world of human intelligence collection.
    3. It continues to suffer from a lack of creativity in anticipating and understanding the new threats being developed by our enemies.

    There is little doubt that the Intelligence Community has become seriously politicized. In 2016-2017, its leaders and the FBI undermined the incoming President Donald Trump by raising the specter of Russian influence over Trump. The disproven Russia hoax would go on to shadow and undermine Trump’s entire time in office.

    When Hunter Biden’s now infamous laptop was revealed, it was the FBI and former Intelligence Community leaders who actively tried to cover it up and pass it off as a Russian disinformation campaign.

    The Intelligence Community also shifted some of its focus from international threats to domestic threats — often spurious — while ignoring the real ticking time bomb of 5.6 million migrants flooding onto the United States through the southern border, in addition to at least 1.5 million known “gotaways” and an unknown number of unknown “gotaways.”

    We have also witnessed information that was accurate but which the FBI worked with social media companies to suppress, and even outright fabrications about what they claimed was disinformation, such as the Russia hoax or the authenticity of Hunter Biden’s laptop; that Catholics who attend mass in Latin are “extremists,” and that parents questioning what their children learn in public schools are “domestic terrorists.” What really happened on January 6, 2021 is still unknown.

    These efforts by the Intelligence Community all seem to target Republicans or to benefit Democrats politically — a situation that has left many conservatives rightly worried about the political weaponization of the government.

    Unfortunately, this political corruption shows no signs of abating, with the entire deep state apparently still determined to turn the Constitution on its head to “get Trump,” and with former officials such as Michael Hayden, who was head of the National Security Agency and the CIA, suggesting that Republican Senator Tommy Tuberville should be removed from the human race.

    A second major shortcoming, that was identified after 9/11 was, as mentioned, a U.S. over-reliance on the technological collection of information, such as satellites, cyber, and wiretapping. The Intelligence Community knew how to do these things and knew how to do them well. It was difficult and sophisticated work but carried far fewer risks than human espionage or developing spy networks.

    While the intelligence may have been there, our ability to fully understand it, and our analyses, missed having insights into the humans, and their way of thinking, who were behind those “zeros and ones.”

    Hamas may have exploited the reliance Western security services have on technological collection. We already know that Osama bin Laden refused to use electronic communications and relied on human couriers to convey messages. It is not unreasonable to expect that Israeli or US intelligence should have been able to detect the 10/7 attacks on Israel ahead of time The after-action intelligence review to determine how Hamas hid its operation will undoubtedly look into this, but it appears that electronic communication on the plot was limited and coded, with the few people actually knowing the full details kept to a handful to further limit communications.

    Just as the U.S. Intelligence Community did not imagine terrorists hijacking airplanes to use as missiles, it is likely the Israelis never contemplated Hamas pulling off a multipronged attack by sea, land, and air — including the use of paragliders. But that is exactly what they did. They used low-tech bulldozers and explosives to breach Israel’s border fence and then drive through the openings with trucks, motorcycles, and other equipment loaded with terrorists and weapons. Hamas fired thousands of rockets, in barrages of hundreds at a time, to overwhelm Israel’s highly touted Iron Dome counter-rocket system and, having learned lessons about the effective use of drones from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, used drone-dropped munitions to take out guard towers and surveillance cameras.

    While many of these tactics are not new — Hamas had fired tens of thousands of missiles into Israel before, attacked civilians and soldiers on the streets, and crossed the border in multiple ways — the novelty of this approach was to do all of these things at once and on a massive scale.

    The biggest U.S. intelligence failure of all so far, unfortunately, has been strenuously pretending not to know that Iran, Qatar and Turkey are the kingpins behind the current attacks by Hamas on Israel. If Iran, Qatar and Turkey are to be discouraged from continuing their malign actions destabilizing the region, the price they pay needs to be steep. Hamas. Iran, Qatar and Turkey must not be let off the hook. In addition, the US must move its military assets from Al Udeid Airbase in Qatar to the United Arab Emirates as soon as it can.

    The Qataris, instead of being grateful that a state-of-the-art airbase is on its soil protecting it, instead might think that they are doing the US a favor letting the airbase be there.

    To go just after Hamas is like targeting crime syndicate, but ignoring Al Capone. Hamas needs to be dealt with first – along with the realization that any humanitarian aid allowed into Gaza supplies Hamas, not the people for whom it was well-meaningly intended. As the journalist Caroline Glick points out, the trucks are not inspected. They might be bringing in food and water – or weapons. Sadly, even if the contents are food and water, Hamas keeps them, then sparingly doles them out to whomever they want.

    Moving forward, we once again need to examine how we do intelligence across the West. Perhaps Congress or a special commission can be established to identify the exact strengths and weaknesses of our intelligence community. It will have the old rallying cry of “never again,” just as after Pearl Harbor, the 1973 Yom Kippur War, 9/11, and now the attacks of 10/7. The Intelligence Community needs to keep its eye on actual foreign threats, develop and use all forms of intelligence collection to build a robust intelligence capability, respect the ability and creativity of our adversaries, and to discard the biased and flawed analytical tradecraft standards that have led us to where we are today. Unless these changes take place, we will remain vulnerable, uncertain of our safety and security, and stuck with the knowledge the world is a much more dangerous place than we had thought.

    Peter Hoekstra is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute. He was US Ambassador to the Netherlands during the Trump administration. He also served 18 years in the U.S. House of Representatives representing the Second District of Michigan and served as Chairman and Ranking Member of the House Intelligence Committee.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/21/2023 – 22:45

  • University Of California Professor Threatens Pro-Israel Journalists And Their Families
    University Of California Professor Threatens Pro-Israel Journalists And Their Families

    Authored by Jonathan Turley via jonathanturley.org,

    The University of California at Davis is embroiled in a controversy involving one of its faculty threatening “zionist journalists” in a violent tirade on X. UC Davis Professor (and undergraduate adviser) Jemma Decristo posted the screed on October 10th referencing the homes and family of those who support Israel as possible targets. The university is investigating the matter, but Decristo’s embrace of violence is nothing new for faculty around the country. For years, faculty members have engaged in violent rhetoric directed toward conservatives and Republicans with little response from universities.

    Decristo wrote:

    “one group of ppl we have easy access to in the US is all these zionist journalists who spread propaganda and misinformation … they have houses w addresses, kids in school, they can fear their bosses, but they should fear us more.”

    At the bottom, you can see a knife emoji, an ax emoji, and three red drops of blood after saying “they should fear us more.”

    That strikes me as a rather direct and obvious threat.

    Decristo is an assistant professor of American Studies at the public school with a “focus … on the interplay between sound, race, gender and embodiment.”

    In a statement, a UC Davis spokesperson said campus leaders “reject all forms of violence and discrimination, as they are antithetical to the values of our university. We strive to foster a climate of equity and justice built on mutual understanding and respect for all members of the community.”

    The University of California system has a long history of violence and violent rhetoric from the left.

    At the University of California, Santa Barbara, feminist studies associate professor Mireille Miller-Young physically assaulted pro-life advocates and tore down their display. 

    She pleaded guilty to criminal assault, but the university refused to fire her. Instead, some faculty and students defended her, including claiming that pro-life displays constitute terrorism. The University of Oregon later honored Miller-Young as a model for women advocates.

    Around the country, faculty routinely use violent rhetoric with little push back in the media or on campus.

    We have discussed professors advocating “detonating white people,” denouncing police, calling for Republicans to suffer, strangling police officers, celebrating the death of conservatives, calling for the killing of Trump supporters, supporting the murder of conservative protesters, and other outrageous statements.

    University of Rhode Island professor Erik Loomis defended the murder of a conservative protester and said he saw “nothing wrong” with such acts of violence.

    One of the most recent violent professors was Hunter College Professor Shellyne Rodríguez who was only fired after being arrested for holding a machete to the neck of a New York Post reporter and threatened to “chop you up.”

    Yet, she was not fired after she destroyed the pro-life display of a group of students.

    Since her machete attack, Rodríguez has now been hired by Cooper Union to teach its students.

    These faculty members have long been part of the radical chic of academia, including a professor recently at Cornell expressing his “exhilaration” after watching the Hamas attack on Israel.

    The response to conservatives accused of racist or insensitive comments has been quite different. We discussed how St. Joseph’s University refused to renew a contract for a professor who actually prevailed in such a free speech fight. A conservative North Carolina professor  faced calls for termination over controversial tweets and was pushed to retire. Dr. Mike Adams, a professor of sociology and criminology, had long been a lightning rod of controversy. In 2014, we discussed his prevailing in a lawsuit that alleged discrimination due to his conservative views.  He was then targeted again after an inflammatory tweet calling North Carolina a “slave state.”  That led to his being pressured to resign with a settlement. He then committed suicide  just days before his last day as a professor.

    For years, conservative and Republican faculty and students have been subjected to such violent acts or rhetoric with little support from most faculty or the media. Indeed, figures like Jennifer Rubin and Laurence Tribe recently came under fire for their comments after the massacre despite years of such attacks and false claims directed at the right.

    Universities are now facing pressure from donors to address such violent rhetoric. I continue to oppose any form of censorship for faculty or students. However, the real problem is the academic echo chamber created from decades of bias in hiring and promotion. That is unlikely to change the lack of viewpoint diversity on faculties or the purging of conservative or libertarian professors. There is no evidence that universities are prepared to take real action to address the hostile environment for many on our campuses in espousing dissenting views or values.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/21/2023 – 22:10

  • Why US Businesses Can't Wait To Get Out Of China
    Why US Businesses Can’t Wait To Get Out Of China

    Authored by Terri Wu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Foreign investments are leaving China.

    Half of the $250 billion to $300 billion foreign bond investments since 2019 have exited, and U.S. private equity and venture capital investments in China have fallen by more than 50 percent, according to a JP Morgan report last month.

    (Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock)

    Foreign direct investment into China in the second quarter of this year reached a 25-year low at $4.9 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 87 percent, according to Chinese official data.

    Bloomberg and fDi Markets data on new investment projects—a more telling indicator of whether foreign firms are still investing in the country—show a 40 percent drop, to $74 billion in 2020 from $120 billion in 2019, and an additional 45 percent decline to $41 billion in 2022—the lowest since 2010.

    Although financial transactions are easy to track without much lag, it may take years for foreign direct investment data to reflect Western firms’ diversifying away from China.

    For this reason, Beijing might be unaware of how bad things really are as far as foreign direct investment, analysts of the Rhodium Group, a leading research firm on the Chinese economy, warned in a recent report.

    “Amidst a broader structural slowdown in China’s economy, the delayed reactions could contribute to further losses in productivity and economic growth,” the report stated.

    The implied assumption here is that preventing economic losses is a priority for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). However, some China experts challenge this.

    “It’s not that Xi Jinping and the CCP leadership hate economic growth—it’s just not a priority,” Derek Scissors, chief economist of research firm China Beige Book and a senior fellow at the Washington-based think tank American Enterprise Institute, told The Epoch Times.

    “The priority is control over the society, including the economy. So whenever there’s a trade-off between economic control and growth, they choose control,” he said.

    “And when we say, ‘Oh, you know, you could be growing faster. Why are you doing these things?’ The answer is obvious: It’s because that’s not their priority.”

    Mr. Scissors and other experts told The Epoch Times that overall economic growth isn’t at the top of the agenda for Chinese regime leader Xi Jinping. Instead, China is, by design, going through a paradigm shift in how it interacts with the global economy and is screening and filtering for foreign investors loyal to Mr. Xi.

    As a result, China’s overall political and business landscape defies past experience, they said, and Western interpretations will make the wrong assumptions on China—even more so than before.

    Communist Party leader Xi Jinping has reversed China’s integration into the rest of the world, a trend that had defined the previous two decades, according to businessman Mike Sun. (Marco Di Lauro/Getty Images)

    3 Phases of Foreign Direct Investment

    When U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo visited China in August, she warned that the country could become “uninvestable” if the unpredictable official behavior, such as raids on U.S. firms, don’t cease. This year, Mintz Group’s Beijing office was raided in March, Bain & Co.’s Shanghai office in April, and Capvision Partners’s offices in multiple cities in May.

    The Chinese business environment for U.S. companies wasn’t always like this.

    Mike Sun, a U.S.-based businessman with decades of experience advising foreign investors and traders doing business in China, recalled that the first generation of U.S. investors visited mainland China with a pioneering spirit. He spoke to The Epoch Times using an alias to protect his business in China.

    In the early 1990s, he said a Jewish American businessman told him, “I want to be America’s Marco Polo,” referring to the Italian explorer who introduced Europeans to China. The businessman spoke fluent Mandarin and was married to a Chinese woman.

    People walk by a McDonald’s restaurant in Beijing in 1994. In the early 1990s, McDonald’s Corporation was among the pioneering U.S. businesses in China. (AFP via Getty Images)

    Back then, China was full of opportunities.

    If investing in China in those years felt like an adventure, it became a no-brainer the next decade, from 2000 to 2012. One would have been foolish not to invest in China, Mr. Sun recalled.

    The crowning glory for the communist regime was the 2008 Beijing Olympics, he said. When U.S. President George W. Bush and his family sat next to Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi at the China–United States basketball game, it became a symbol of the international community’s acceptance of the CCP.

    (Left) Then-Foreign Minister of the People’s Republic of China Yang Jiechi (L), then-U.S. President George W. Bush, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger (2nd R), and then-First Lady Laura Bush attend a U.S.–China basketball game at the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. (Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images) (Right) China’s global share in manufacturing value added. (The Epoch Times)

    China had become the “world’s factory” after it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. According to World Bank data, its share of global manufacturing value-add rose from 9 percent in 2004 to 22 percent in 2012 and 30 percent in 2022.

    But Mr. Xi’s ascension in March 2013 heralded a different decade. In 2015, the leader started his industrial “Made in China 2025” plan, aiming for global dominance in advanced manufacturing sectors such as semiconductors and new energy.

    To achieve this goal, the regime encouraged large-scale technology theft from Western countries.

    In Mr. Sun’s view, Mr. Xi has reversed China’s integration into the rest of the world, a trend that had defined the previous two decades.

    “Xi doesn’t want China to be a second Russia,” Mr. Sun said.

    Between 2014 and 2016, Russia suffered a financial crisis because of the sharp price decline of crude oil, a major export, and international sanctions as a result of its annexation of Crimea. Since then, Russia’s growth prospects have remained bleak because of challenges in diversifying its main industries and ongoing Western sanctions, according to European think tank Bruegel.

    After Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, it was hit with more than 13,000 restrictions. The sanctions have severed Russia from advanced technology sectors abroad and forced the nation to resort again to energy commodities trading to sustain its economy growth, according to findings by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington-based think tank.

    Mr. Sun said China’s changes have become more apparent in the past two to three years, coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic, during which Mr. Xi largely completed his consolidation of power.

    That’s what Meng Jun, a Chinese entrepreneur, said he experienced.

    Mr. Meng had a rubber product business with an annual revenue of $15 million. In 2021, when the rest of the world reopened, his factory in Nanning, the capital of southern China’s Guangxi Province, began to receive orders again. However, he couldn’t resume production because of the regime’s COVID-19 lockdowns.

    Initially, he was able to bribe local officials so his factory could run at night while other factories had to remain shut. But later, no one would bend the rules because the officials didn’t want to lose their jobs over the possibility that a COVID-19 case would be traced back to an unauthorized factory operating under China’s zero-COVID policy. He lost millions.

    He closed the business last year and left for the United States.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/21/2023 – 21:00

  • Bidenomics Rejected: Trump Ahead In Swing States, Leads Among Young Voters
    Bidenomics Rejected: Trump Ahead In Swing States, Leads Among Young Voters

    Less than 13 months from the 2024 election, a new set of polls has delivered alarming news for backers of incumbent President Joe Biden, with voters in swing states and even younger voters giving the edge to former President Donald Trump. The key driver: voter rejection of Bidenomics. 

    According to a Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll, Trump is up four points among voters in seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. On a state-by-state breakdown, Trump has the upper hand in five of them. He’s tied with Biden in Michigan, while Biden leads in Nevada by 3.  

    via Bloomberg/Morning Consult; poll taken Oct 5 to Oct 10

    In 2020, Biden received the electoral votes of all of those states except for North Carolina, which Trump won by 1.3%. If all other states stayed in their 2020 columns, Trump would need to take four of the seven swing states to return to the White House.  

    Swing-state voters say the economy outweighs any other factor in their voting decisions, and they’re hugely disappointed in the Biden-era economy. 49% say Biden policies have been bad for the economy, compared to 26% who see them as a positive.  

    “Almost twice as many voters in the swing states are saying that Bidenomics is bad for the economy, as opposed to good for the economy, which is a really startling fact if you’re the Biden campaign,” said Morning Consult pollster and vice president Caroline Bye. Bye couldn’t help but reveal her own bias, declaring, “Biden is not getting any credit for work he’s done on the economy.” 

    It’s not just the economy that’s dragging Biden down; swing-state voters have higher confidence in Trump in 10 out of 16 policy areas. Only where “climate change” is concerned does Biden outperform Trump by more than 10 points. Interestingly, they give a solid edge to Trump on “guns.” 

    Via Bloomberg/Morning Consult

    The independent campaign of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr is a wild card. The Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll found Biden leads Nevada by three points in a head-to-head matchup with Trump, but loses by three when other parties are included. On the other hand, Trump’s supporters are much more likely than Biden backers to view Kennedy favorably — by a whopping 46% to 29% margin.  

    Two other polls yielded more bad omens for Biden, particularly in regard to key Democratic constituencies. An Emerson College poll found voters between 18 and 29 favor Trump by 2.3%, while CNBC‘s All-America Economic Survey found sagging support for Biden among young people, blacks and Latinos. 

    Democratic pollster Jay Campbell called those results “very troubling” for Biden. Noting that those three constituencies are among the hardest hit by economic conditions, he said, “You start to think that maybe they’ve run out of patience, and it’s starting to show through in their decreasing regard for the president.”

    The CNBC survey found Biden’s disapproval rating at a personal-worst 58%, driven by a 63% disapproval rating on his handling of the economy — another low for this presidency. Respondents favored Trump in the 2024 contest by a 43% to 38% margin. 

    At PredictIt, the online, real-money prediction market where shares betting on the right outcome pay $1, speculators are still favoring Biden. However, the gap between the Biden and Trump contracts has narrowed from 18 cents on Aug 18 — in the wake of Trump’s indictment in Georgia — to just 3 cents on Thursday. 

     

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/21/2023 – 20:25

  • China Has Up To 6 Warships In Mideast Waters As US Carrier Group Moves Closer To Israel
    China Has Up To 6 Warships In Mideast Waters As US Carrier Group Moves Closer To Israel

    Israel’s military has announced Saturday that it drastically stepped up airstrikes in preparation for its “next stage” of the operation against Gaza, in a statement many see as portending an imminent ground invasion.

    “We need to enter under the best possible conditions and this is what we are doing now, as the next stage of war approaches,” IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari explained after confirming, “from today, we are increasing the strikes and minimizing the danger.”

    “We will narrow the risks to our forces over the next stages. This is why we have once again urged residents of Gaza to keep moving south,” he added, in words that Israeli media also took to mean a ground assault is about to happen.

    Xinhua via AP

    One big development from earlier in day was that 20 large trucks loaded with humanitarian aid were for the first time allowed to pass into Gaza through the Rafah crossing from Egypt. 

    Controversy was then sparked by a New York Times report which claimed the aid convoy was not checked by inspectors before it went into the strip, amid allegations that weapons or ammo could be hidden in the convoy. Israel has denied the report, however: 

    The Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories denies that aid entering the Gaza Strip was not checked before going in.

    “All of the equipment was checked before going into Gaza,” it says in a statement, noting that the shipment included “only water, food and medical equipment.”

    “We emphasize that Israel is able to make sure that nothing goes in or out except the aforementioned,” it adds.

    Fears are now growing that Hezbollah could fully enter the conflict, with widespread speculation that the well-armed Shia paramilitary group backed by Iran is ready to mount a full attack on northern Israel if the IDF launches a ground assault on the Gaza Strip. So far there has only been sporadic by intensifying rocket and mortar fire from south Lebanon.

    US warships and at least one carrier are in the region (with a second carrier headed that way), as part of “support” operations – but the whole region is on edge given the possibility of a Middle East-wide bigger conflagration. 

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    Worrisomely other major global powers are bolstering their presence, particularly ones which have of late issued severe criticisms of Israel’s largescale aerial assault on Gaza (namely Russia and China), which has killed thousands of civilians – many women and children among them. Russia has been operating jet patrols over Syria, and importantly China now has additional warships in the Mideast region.

    Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post has confirmed that up to six Chinese warships have been in Middle East waters over the last week.

    “The 44th naval escort task force has been involved in routine operations in the area since May and last week spent several days on a visit to Oman, including a joint exercise with the country’s navy, according to the Chinese defense ministry website,” the report says.

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    While the warships’ presence off Oman is being presented as “routine” – it seems clear the Chinese PLA Navy is going to stick around, given fast-moving events in Israel-Gaza. Days ago, Beijing’s foreign ministry urged all Chinese citizens to make plans to depart Israel while international flights are still available. Are Chinese warships now headed to the Mediterranean?

    The Biden White House has reportedly been urging Netanyahu to hold off on the invasion to give more time to negotiate for hostages, after two Americans were released Friday…

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    This weekend, all eyes will remain on both Gaza and south Lebanon, as the major powers of the US, Russia, and China keep their military assets on the ready. Iran is also no doubt watching events closely, with Iranian officials having in the last days made key visits to regional capitals Baghdad, Damascus, and Beirut. There’s also fear in Tehran of the potential for an Israeli preemptive attack on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, which Israeli leaders have threatened before.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/21/2023 – 19:15

  • Gaza's Ancient Christian Population Between A Rock & A Hard Place
    Gaza’s Ancient Christian Population Between A Rock & A Hard Place

    Via Middle East Eye,

    Israel’s attack on the fifth-century Church of Saint Porphyrius in Gaza has turned the spotlight on the besieged Palestinian enclave’s Christian population.

    At least 18 people were killed in the bombing on a social services annex in the church’s complex of buildings. Both Muslims and Christians took shelter within its walls hoping that its historical and religious importance would spare it the carnage that has affected other areas of Gaza.

    Saint Porphyrius Orthodox Church, Anadolu via Getty Images

    As part of historic Palestine it is impossible to disconnect the history of Palestinian Christians in Gaza from those who share their faith in the occupied West Bank, Jerusalem and within the Palestinian community in Israel. The region is the birthplace of Christianity and the location of many of the events of the Old and New Testaments of the Bible.

    Palestinian Christians in Gaza, like other Palestinians there, do not see themselves as detached from the wider Palestinian nation. Nevertheless, there is a unique Christian history specific to Gaza. While just over a thousand Christians remain in Gaza, the territory holds a special significance in the development of the faith.

    The region is referred to by name in the New Testament in Acts 8, which refers to Philip the Evangelist baptizing a man from Ethiopia on the road between Jerusalem and Gaza. “Now an angel of the Lord spoke to Philip, saying, ‘Arise and go toward the south along the road which goes down from Jerusalem to Gaza.’ This is a desert,” the verse reads.

    There are also several historic Christian sites that are not only important locally but carry importance for Christians generally. The site of the Israeli attack on Thursday evening, the Saint Porphyrius Church, is one of the most important religious sites in Palestine.

    Named after a fifth-century bishop, the site is one of the oldest surviving places of worship in the region and one of the oldest churches in the world.

    Saint Porphyrios Orthodox Church – Gaza, Facebook page

    The church was initially built in 425A.D. and then later reconstructed by Crusaders in the 12th century, with much of the present structure dating back to that period. Another major Christian site in Gaza is the nearby and even older Tell Umm Amer monastery.

    The fourth-century structure, which now lies mainly in ruins, once included churches, a baptism hall, a cemetery and crypt. It served as a place of worship for those travelling between Egypt and the lands of the Levant, including Palestine and Syria.

    The site is notable for being the birthplace of Saint Hilarion, a fourth-century Palestinian monk, who helped pioneer monasticism. The presence of these early churches and monasteries, as well as the Biblical reference, indicate that Christianity in Gaza took root in tandem with the development of the faith in the region. But widespread adoption of the faith did not take place until the fifth century.

    According to the scholar Nicole Belayche, the strength of pagan cults in Gaza before the fifth century is “indisputable”. In her essay in the book Christian Gaza in Late Antiquity, she writes that when Porphyrius was ordained bishop of Gaza, the Christian population stood at “less than three hundred in a population estimated at between 20,000 and 25,000”.

    Gaza’s mass conversion to Christianity started in the fifth century under the auspices of the Byzantine Empire, the successor to the Eastern Roman Empire. “It was a hard process, one requiring recourse to imperial intervention,” she writes.

    Image source: Simply Human

    Initial reluctance was overcome by the efforts of holy men, such as Porphyrius, and incorporation of indigenous ritual into church rites, Belayche explains. While Christianity was widely adopted by the end of the sixth century, it was not long before there was a new dominant religion.

    In his book History of the City of Gaza, the late 19th century Jewish-American scholar Martin A Meyer writes: “The new faith had barely sufficient time to establish itself before Islam swept it away from this part of the world forever.”

    Meyer’s statement is hyperbolic but touches on the truth that over the centuries that followed the Arab conquest, much of the region’s population converted to Islam.

    There still remained a small Christian minority in the area of Gaza, which survived for centuries and enjoyed a brief flourishing under Crusader rule in the 12th century. Like their fellow Palestinians, many of the region’s Christians were forced from their homes during the establishment of the state of Israel in 1948.

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    As a result, the Christian population of Gaza has dwindled further over the decades, a trend that has continued after the Nakba. According to the Guardian, there were 6,000 Palestinian Christians in Gaza in the mid-1960s and that number has fallen to 1,100 today.

    Most Christians in the besieged region today follow the Greek Orthodox Church, while minorities follow the Baptist and Catholic churches. Since the Israeli siege of Gaza began in 2007, Christians have faced similar restrictions on movement as their Muslim neighbors have to live under.

    Cut off from larger Christian communities in the West Bank and Jerusalem, members of the faith require Israeli permits to travel to those areas for religious occasions. In 2021, Israel issued permits for around half of the Palestinian Christian population in Gaza to attend Christmas services.

    Such rights to attend rituals are by no means guaranteed, as evidenced by Israel’s decision to cancel 700 permits for Christians in Gaza to attend Easter services in Jerusalem. Israel similarly rejected permit applications for 260 Palestinians in Gaza wanting to spend Christmas outside of the territory, either in the occupied West Bank or elsewhere.

    Despite their small number, Churches in Gaza have regularly opened their doors to adherents of any faith to seek shelter during times of conflict, in the hope that houses of worship will not be attacked by Israel. Such hopes may fade fast after the most recent Israeli attack on the Church of Saint Porphyrius.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/21/2023 – 18:40

  • Bloomberg Terrified At The Prospect Of America Exporting Its Gun Culture
    Bloomberg Terrified At The Prospect Of America Exporting Its Gun Culture

    Submitted by Gun Owners Of America.,

    Bloomberg, the news media company named after and owned by prominent anti-gun billionaire Michael Bloomberg, is terrified of a worldwide gun culture.

    In a recent series of articles, Bloomberg journalists detail how firearms companies are “fueling violence across the world” through sales to other countries. While the articles certainly attempt to frame gun ownership in other countries as the cause of violence, two key points are left out.

    First, many firearms exports worldwide are specifically for law enforcement and military contracts, not civilian sales. So, while Sig Sauer (the target of a Bloomberg hit piece on firearms exports) does export firearms overseas, many of these are for arming police officers and soldiers in foreign militaries.

    Second is that violence isn’t caused by firearms. Violence is a human problem. An article in the series asserts that Sig Sauer is somehow responsible for the black-market firearms trade in Thailand and violent acts committed by those who used Sig products. It’s very likely that if Sig Sauer was not able to sell their firearms in Thailand, the purported acts of violence would still have occurred with a different brand that Bloomberg journalists may not have been as interested in.

    A newer article in the series highlighted Brazil as being a major importer of US-made firearms, but failed to mention the fact that after former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro made firearms permits easier and cheaper for law-abiding citizens to acquire, homicides fell 34%, according to the Wall Street Journal.

    Brazil, one of the most violent nations on earth (with cities like Salvador and Fortaleza having homicide numbers in the thousands), is plagued by crime and gang violence. Firearms are routinely stolen from police armories and sometimes even manufactured right in the favela. Why not mention that American-style civilian firearm ownership helped to decrease homicides?

    Interestingly, this detail is left out of the Bloomberg reporting, and maybe it doesn’t fit the anti-gun progressive narrative by corporate media. 

    Lastly, a question that must be posed in the face of this reporting is why Bloomberg fears an American-style gun culture in other countries.

    An American style of gun ownership allows citizens to defend themselves without reliance on government entities like the police or military. It will enable citizens to be truly independent. For a billionaire like Michael Bloomberg, who can afford private security 24/7, this can be hard to understand. Still, for someone living in a Brazilian favela or a cartel-controlled territory in Mexico, firearm ownership could be the determining factor between life and death.

    It’s very telling that at the end of the Bloomberg article, a disclaimer reads: Everytown for Gun Safety, which advocates gun-safety measures, is backed by Michael Bloomberg, founder and majority owner of Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP.

    *    *    *

    We’ll hold the line for you in Washington. We are No Compromise. Join the Fight Now. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/21/2023 – 18:05

  • APEC Leaders Can’t Ignore Xi’s Widening Uyghur Genocide
    APEC Leaders Can’t Ignore Xi’s Widening Uyghur Genocide

    Authored by Omar Kanat via RealClear Wire,

    Xi Jinping’s visit to Ürümchi, the capital of the Uyghur region, in August has sent a chill through the human rights and Uyghur diaspora communities. During his trip, Xi called on local officials to preserve “hard won social stability” and enhance measures to manage “illegal religious activities.” Xi personally put in place the policies for ongoing crimes against humanity and genocide in East Turkistan, premised on combatting “religious extremism.” And now he is saying that the ongoing repression targeting Uyghurs isn’t harsh enough. This ominous declaration should be seen as a dire warning, signaling darker days ahead for the Uyghur population.

    Xi is slated to visit San Francisco in November for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum Leaders Summit. When he meets with the leaders of the 21 APEC economies, which account for nearly 40% of the global population and nearly 50% of global trade, his public declaration that China will deepen its current Xinjiang policies cannot go unchallenged.

    Since 2016, the world has witnessed the systematic persecution of Uyghurs in East Turkistan. Reports of mass detentions, forced labor, cultural suppression, and genocidal birth control policies have cast an even longer shadow over China’s human rights record. Despite mounting evidence, the international response has been disturbingly inadequate.

    Xi Jinping’s remarks in Ürümchi should serve as a wake-up call: The policies of total surveillance, total assimilation, and universal placement in government jobs are ongoing. Nobody should be taken in by external propaganda purporting to show that everything is normal, saying journalists and tourists are welcome in “Beautiful Xinjiang.” The happy, dancing Uyghurs in the “I’m from Xinjiang” videos in 2023 were preceded by the “new Uyghurs” in the 2021 “Amazing Xinjiang” campaign. But when AFP News tried to inquire about the families of overseas Uyghurs during a recent reporting trip, they were warned away by dozens of plainclothes security officers, toting shovels and hoes.

    Visits to the Uyghur region by genocide enablers, such as the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation and the Arab League, should not surprise anyone. However, it is the turn toward engagement with China from staunch supporters of Uyghur rights like the United States and the United Kingdom that is alarming. As the shock of revelations about internment camps and forced labor has waned, sanctions and condemnations have petered out. Bilateral diplomacy has shifted towards improving “lines of communication” with China.

    The shift toward engagement plays right into the hands of the Chinese government, which prefers to operate with its dialogue partners turning a blind eye to its human rights abuses. Even more effective is China’s leveraging of its economic largesse and political power to divide any unified response that would exert meaningful pressure on Beijing.

    Moreover, the United Nations, including the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, have been glacially slow to take meaningful action. Despite mounting evidence and OHCHR’s own findings of China’s human rights crimes in the Uyghur region, these bodies have been unable to enact diplomatic protest, let alone bring those responsible to justice.

    Indeed, I argue that inaction is normalizing genocide. To address this retrenchment in world attention, the international community must take immediate and coordinated action. This includes:

    1. Increased sanctions: Countries should expand and strengthen sanctions against Chinese officials and entities involved in the Uyghur genocide. This not only holds individuals accountable but also sends a clear message to Beijing.
    2. Mobilization of international human rights mechanisms: UN High Commissioner’s Office needs to act on its 2022 report on “interlocking patterns of severe and undue restrictions on a wide range of human rights.” For Uyghurs and other Turkic peoples, a critical window is closing on turning the findings into multilateral pressure on China.
    3. Pressure on corporations: Companies that benefit from forced Uyghur labor or operate in East Turkistan should face scrutiny and pressure to ensure they are not complicit in crimes against humanity.
    4. Cessation of trade in Uyghur forced labor goods: China’s massive program of state-imposed forced labor for Uyghurs, an integral component of the ongoing genocide, must be addressed in every trade forum, including the APEC Leaders’ Summit in San Francisco in November.

    Xi Jinping’s ominous words in Ürümchi serve as a stark reminder that the Uyghur crisis is far from over. When Xi travels to San Francisco on November 12 for the APEC Summit, APEC leaders must address the elephant in the room. Economic “cooperation” is morally bankrupt if it does nothing to stop genocidal forced labor products in global trade.

    The international community must rise to the occasion and act to end economic complicity and moral complacency. Failure to do so will only embolden the Chinese government and ensure that the Uyghur people continue to suffer in silence. The time for action on genocide is always now.

    Omer Kanat is executive director of the Uyghur Human Rights Project.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/21/2023 – 17:30

  • "Cardboard Box Recession" An Ominous Sign Of Faltering Consumer, Schwab Warns
    “Cardboard Box Recession” An Ominous Sign Of Faltering Consumer, Schwab Warns

    Earlier this year, Charles Schwab analyst Jeffrey Kleintop said the US was sliding into a “cardboard box” recession as consumers and small businesses were pressured by soaring interest rates and elevated inflation.

    On Tuesday, Kleintop joined Morningstar’s The Long View podcast to warn, yet again, that slowing demand for cardboard boxes is an ominous sign of a coming recession. The reason behind this view is that cardboard boxes are used to transport nearly every good in modern society. So when box demand falls, it’s reflective of slowing purchases by consumers and businesses. 

    “Often, I find, in maybe nontraditional measures, I find more comfort in things that just make sense to me. Like the downturn that’s currently indicated in official manufacturing and trade data. Some of that’s kind of abstract. I find comfort looking at the plunging demand for cardboard boxes,” Kleintop told the podcast hosts. 

    The analyst said, “I’ve been referring to this as a cardboard box recession because things that are manufactured and shipped tend to go in a box and because demand for corrugated fiberboard, which is what most cardboard boxes are made from, has fallen just like it did in past recession. So, literally, cardboard boxes are in a recession.” 

    Last week, former Walmart CEO Bill Simon, who now serves on the Board of Directors for Darden Restaurants and Hanesbrands Inc., told CNBC that headwinds are mounting for consumers as inflation, high interest rates, and global tensions make consumers wary. He said, “For the first time in a long time, there’s a reason for the consumer to pause.” 

    If Simon is correct, this could spell disaster for Biden’s economy. Consumers are a significant driver in the US economy, accounting for about two-thirds of US GDP. 

    It appears the music has already stopped, and the party for consumers is grinding to a halt. 

    Last month, we laid out the various reasons why – according to JPMorgan and Goldman – sentiment on US consumer stocks had cratered and would continue to worsen in the months ahead. 

    A recent Citi note (full report available to pro subs) revealed consumer card spending is downright recessionary. 

    Also, a recent Barclay’s Global Rates Weekly note showed card spending has taken another leg lower as consumers falter. 

    And back to the cardboard boxes, FreightWaves has been warning all year about this alarming development:

    Ending it with Kleintop, he told The Long View podcast: “So, I think all these signs are indicating that we’re seeing a bit of a slowdown in the services sector. And that’s important because there are 10 times as many services jobs as manufacturing jobs in the US So, if we start to see the service sector reflect more signs of this slowdown in demand, well, we might see a weakening labor market and then that could feed into the retail space and construction and so many other areas.” 

    … and then there is this: “Trucking Recession Deepens As Bezos, Gates-Backed Convoy Cancels All Shipments, Load Board Is Empty.” 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/21/2023 – 16:55

  • House Investigators Reveal $200,000 "Direct Payment To Joe Biden"
    House Investigators Reveal $200,000 “Direct Payment To Joe Biden”

    The House Oversight Committee on Friday revealed a direct payment to President Joe Biden which appears to have been laundered through his brother James.

    As the oversight Committee notes in a release;

    In 2018, James Biden received $600,000 in loans from, Americore—a financially distressed and failing rural hospital operator. According to bankruptcy court documents, James Biden received these loans “based upon representations that his last name, ‘Biden,’ could ‘open doors’ and that he could obtain a large investment from the Middle East based on his political connections.”

    On March 1, 2018, Americore wired a $200,000 loan into James and Sara Biden’s personal bank account – not their business bank account. On the same day, James Biden wrote a $200,000 check from this same personal bank account to Joe Biden. 

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    Chairman James Comer (R-KY) said in a statement (emphasis ours);

    This summer, Joe Biden said: “Where’s the money?”

    Well, we found some.

    We’re still digging into evidence subpoenaed from bank accounts belonging to Hunter Biden, the son of President Joe Biden, and James and Sara Biden – the brother and sister-in-law of the President.

    A document that we’re releasing today raises new questions about how President Biden personally benefited from his family’s shady influence peddling of his name and their access to him.

    Bank records obtained by the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability have revealed a $200,000 direct payment from James and Sara Biden to Joe Biden in the form of a personal check.

    Here is some important context about this check we’ve obtained in our investigation:

    In 2018, James Biden received $600,000 in loans from, Americore—a financially distressed and failing rural hospital operator.

    According to bankruptcy court documents, James Biden received these loans “based upon representations that his last name, ‘Biden,’ could ‘open doors’ and that he could obtain a large investment from the Middle East based on his political connections.”

    On March 1, 2018, Americore wired a $200,000 loan into James and Sara Biden’s personal bank account – not their business bank account. 

    And then on the very same day, James Biden wrote a $200,000 check from this same personal bank account to Joe Biden. 

    James Biden wrote this check to Joe Biden as a “loan repayment.”  Americore—a distressed company—loaned money to James Biden who then sent it to Joe Biden.

    Even if this was a personal loan repayment, it’s still troubling that Joe Biden’s ability to be paid back by his brother depended on the success of his family’s shady financial dealings.

    Some immediate questions President Biden must answer for the American people:

    Does he have documents proving he lent such a large sum of money to his brother and what were the terms of such financial arrangement?

    Did he have similar financial arrangements with other family members that led them to make similar large payments to him?

    Did he know that the same day James Biden wrote him a check for $200,000, James Biden had just received a loan for the exact same amount from business dealings with a company that was in financial distress and failing?

    The House Oversight Committee will soon announce our next investigative actions and continue to follow the money.

    The bank records don’t end here.There is more to come.

    Watch:

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    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/21/2023 – 16:40

  • Census Data Shows 871,000 Californians Left The Imploding State In 2022
    Census Data Shows 871,000 Californians Left The Imploding State In 2022

    California has sustained massive population declines since the Covid pandemic. Residents have been fed up with radical authoritarian progressive politicians, as well as shit-covered streets, imploding metro areas, out-of-control homelessness, open-air drug markets, soaring violent crime and thefts, high inflation, out-of-reach home prices, and much much more.

    AP News, citing new Census figures, highlighted that a staggering 817,000 individuals left the Golden State in 2022. However, with the addition of 475,000 people moving into California that year, the state saw a net loss of approximately 342,000 residents. 

    Texas continues to be the biggest beneficiary of the California exodus. About 102,000 ex-Californians moved to the Lone Star State last year for cheaper cost of living, lower crime, and a friendlier tax environment. 

    “We are losing younger folks, and I think we will see people continuing to migrate where housing costs are lower,” Manuel Pastor, a professor of sociology and American Studies & Ethnicity at the University of Southern California, said in an interview with AP. 

    Pastor said, “There are good jobs in California, but housing is incredibly expensive. It hurts young families, and it hurts immigrant families.”

    Besides seeking cheaper shelter elsewhere, many folks are leaving the state because of violent crime. The latest FBI data shows Gov. Gavin Newsom’s progressive playground is erupting in violent crime following disastrous ‘defund the police’ policies. Meanwhile, crime is sharply falling in Florida, where ‘law and order’ is embraced. 

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    Democrats have transformed California into a third-world-like state in a matter of years. 

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    Wait until the exodus of people and businesses starts crushing tax revenue for cities… 

    As for 2023 trends, John Burns Real Estate Consulting recently shared a new report that showed the exodus contined this year. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/21/2023 – 15:45

  • Behind A Secret Chinese Biolab In California, A Global Web Of Connections
    Behind A Secret Chinese Biolab In California, A Global Web Of Connections

    Authored by Steve Ispas and Lear Zhou via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The discovery of a black market Chinese biolab operating in California, and the subsequent investigation into it, has exposed a tangled web of shell companies obscuring ownership and loopholes that caused delays in cleanup and informing the public.

    A collage of the biolab in Reedley, Calif., on July 31, 2023. (Fresno County Public Health Department/Judicial Watch, Nathan Su/The Epoch Times, Courtesy of City of Reedley)

    The public found out in March about a secret biolab operating in a warehouse in Reedley, California, about 25 miles southeast of Fresno.

    But the warehouse and its biological hazards were discovered months earlier, on Dec. 19, 2022, by Jesalyn Harper, a code enforcement officer with the City of Reedley Fire Department.

    Responding to an anonymous tip about the supposedly vacant warehouse, Ms. Harper discovered thousands of vials of bacterial and viral agents, including coronavirus, chlamydia, E. coli, streptococcus pneumonia, HIV, hepatitis, herpes, rubella, and malaria.

    The business, operated by Prestige Biotech Inc., was also packaging and mailing out COVID-19 and pregnancy test kits, as well as housing nearly 1,000 lab mice.

    A map illustration shows the location of the biolab in Reedley, Calif. (Illustration by The Epoch Times, Nathan Su/The Epoch Times, Shutterstock)

    Ms. Harper reported her findings to the City of Reedley, which contacted the FBI on the same day. But there was no single authority that could deal with all of the pathogens, chemicals, and biological hazards.

    Eventually, a maze of agencies got involved in the investigation and cleanup, including city, county, and state authorities, as well as federal agencies such as the FBI, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

    The Biolab Discovery

    The warehouse, located at 850 I Street in Reedley, was built in the 1950s mainly as a food packing plant. Trucks would drive up to the alcove area in front of the roll-up doors to load up.

    After Ms. Harper received the anonymous complaint about vehicles parked in the alcove, she went to investigate and also noticed a garden hose going into the building via a door being propped open—a potential plumbing violation.

    Ms. Harper told The Epoch Times that she knocked at the door and saw three people boxing up pregnancy tests. One of them spoke no English, while the other two spoke very broken English.

    At the beginning, Ms. Harper said the trio were very cooperative, but as she walked to the southern part of the building they became deflective.

    “What do you do with the mice?” she recalled asking.

    “We use the mice for experiments,” they replied.

    “What kind of experiments?”

    “Oh, I don’t know, we just give them water.”

    “What’s in the refrigerators?”

    “Just stuff for making the tests.“

    As Ms. Harper asked more specific questions, she said the staff answered less and less, pushing for her to leave. Once she saw labels on the fridges such as “blood,” “HIV,” she realized it was a potentially hazardous environment and left the building.

    Jesalyn Harper, a code enforcement officer with the City of Reedley Fire Department. (Courtesy of Jesalyn Harper)

    She reported her discovery to City of Reedley officials, who contacted the FBI immediately and met with them two days later, on Dec. 21, 2022.

    The FBI took all of January 2023 to investigate and finally deemed the warehouse safe for city employees in early February.

    When Reedley city officials returned to the warehouse on March 3 with an inspection warrant, they reported that no items had been removed from the lab, although some additional items had been stored since December.

    Who’s in Charge?

    For Ms. Harper, the process was just beginning. She began to work with the state and county to determine which organizations needed to be involved.

    “We had to look at these labs and break them down component by component and see who had the authority for each component,” Ms. Harper told The Epoch Times.

    “For example, the California Department of Public Health would have authority over medical devices like pregnancy tests; DTSC [the Department of Toxic Substance Control] would have oversight over some of the chemicals, possibly how they were being used.”

    Experts in medical waste and environmental health were brought in to address the items in the refrigerators, medical waste, human waste, blood, and used pregnancy tests.

    The EPA and FDA were also involved, and both agencies retained some of the documentation and paperwork found in the lab.

    Each item had to be dealt with separately—each drawer, each box, each container, each refrigerator, and each pallet had to be looked at by various departments depending on what was found.

    Meanwhile, Ms. Harper had been feeding and watering the lab mice found onsite while she and other city officials were figuring out who had authority.

    They discovered on March 16 that no one in the U.S. government clearly has regulatory authority over lab mice, so Ms. Harper used the California Health and Safety Code that references animal cruelty to obtain a warrant. A veterinarian then recommended to have the mice humanely euthanized, which took place after obtaining the requisite permit on April 12.

    All other biologicals were removed by July 8, after an abatement warrant was authorized by the Superior Court of California–Fresno County. All other assets were moved during the first two weeks of August.

    An emergency ordinance, No. 2023-008, passed at the Reedley City Council meeting on Sept. 12 temporarily placed a ban on the establishment of warehousing and laboratories with biosafety levels 2 through 4 within the city limits. The City of San Carlos in the Bay Area has a similar ban.

    “I’ve had a lot of sleepless nights knowing there is no one out there looking for these labs. This could be happening all over the United States,” Ms. Harper said.

    “It’s been an eye-opening experience, realizing the many cracks in our government for these types of organizations to fall through, and also realizing that the government is not our first line of defense.”

    Ms. Harper said these types of under-the-radar entities can purchase “a lot of chemicals and a lot of biologicals easily and no one is watching over them to make sure they know what they are doing.”

    “We have to make sure these labs are not able to come here until there is oversight,” she said.

    Who Owns the Secret Lab?

    The biolab in Reedley is owned by Prestige Biotech Inc., but a closer look into a complex network of companies and employees, including Prestige, all ultimately lead back to Jia Bei “Jesse” Zhu, a Chinese national with a Canadian passport.

    Just hours after this article was published on Oct. 19, Mr. Zhu was arrested in California and charged with manufacturing and distributing misbranded medical devices and for making false statements to the FDA. A sealed indictment had been filed on Oct. 18.

    Mr. Zhu faces a maximum of three years in prison for the misbranding charge and five years for the false statements charge according to the U.S. Attorney’s office for the Eastern District of California.

    According to court documents, between December 2020 and March 2023, Mr. Zhu and others allegedly manufactured, imported, sold, and distributed hundreds of thousands of COVID-19 and other test kits in the United States and China. They did so through the companies Universal Meditech Inc. and Prestige Biotech Inc. without proper authorization.

    “As part of his scheme, the defendant changed his name, the names of his companies, and their locations,” said U.S. Attorney Philip A. Talbert.

    The criminal complaint alleges that during the investigation, Mr. Zhu made several false statements to FDA officials, including using a false name and falsely representing his knowledge about the company’s activities.

    City of Reedley staff were told by Prestige Biotech president Yao Xiuqin that his company had taken over the warehouse—including the biological materials, samples, and lab mice—from Universal Meditech Inc. after the latter claimed bankruptcy, according to a court document filed on June 15.

    Prestige Biotech is the main creditor of Universal Meditech.

    Public records show that Prestige Biotech was first registered in Nevada to Wang Zhaolin (also known as Lynn Warner) on April 3, 2019, before current company president Mr. Yao, who’s based in China, took over on May 28, 2021.

    Universal Meditech was established in Tulare, California, on Nov. 25, 2015, naming Mr. Zhu as CEO. The company obtained a California business license on March 20, 2019.

    “Universal Meditech was started by a group of Canadian and Chinese investors and specializes in research, development and assembly of diagnostic test kits used in dairy cattle reproduction,” said Paul Saldana, who was president and CEO of the Tulare County Economic and Development Center in 2015, according to Visalia Times Delta.

    Shortly after the pandemic started in March 2020, Universal Meditech switched from a cattle reproduction-related business to producing pregnancy test kits and COVID-19 test kits.

    In August 2020, a fire broke out at the company’s Fresno location and a subsequent environmental health inspector’s visit found that Universal Meditech didn’t have a hazardous materials plan for storing ethanol in the warehouse.

    Current documents filed with the California secretary of state don’t show Mr. Zhu as CEO of Universal Meditech anymore, instead naming Wang Xiaoxiao as CEO, chief financial officer, and secretary, with an address in south central Fresno.

    Another name connected to Universal Meditech and many other similar companies is Wang Zhaoyan, who’s also known as Wang Yan.

    Ms. Wang is listed as president of Universal Meditech in an online business directory, and The Epoch Times obtained a plumbing permit issued to Ms. Wang of Universal Meditech from the City of Tulare in 2016. An FDA filings report for Universal Meditech also lists Ms. Wang as the “official correspondent.”

    Ms. Wang is also a principal in another California-based company, Superior Meditech Investments LLC, and an officer or managing member for three other related companies based in Nevada—PBI Diagnostic Laboratory LLC, Medi-Source LLC, and David Destiny Discovery LLC.

    She’s also listed as executive director and general manager for a company in Qingdao, China, called Ai De Biopharmaceutical Industry (Qingdao) Co. Ltd.

    The general manager for Ai De Biopharmaceutical is also the president for Prestige Biotech (the secret biolab in Reedley that bailed out Universal Meditech), according to California and Nevada business filings and a Chinese company directory.

    All of the executives and all the companies eventually lead back to Mr. Zhu, the Chinese man with a Canadian passport.

    Mr. Zhu and several of his companies have been mired in legal battles stretching from Canada to Hong Kong to the United States since 2008.

    In September 2010, Mr. Zhu filed a proof of claim as “the owner” of Ai De Biopharmaceutical in a bankruptcy proceeding for yet another of his companies, JingJing Genetics Inc.

    “The sole shareholder of Ai De is a British Virgin Island company (Unique Way Technology Limited) which, in turn, is owned by IND, which is owned by Zhu,” according to a 2016 ruling by the Supreme Court of British Columbia in Canada.

    Ai De Biopharmaceutical’s street address in Qingdao is the same as other Chinese medical firms such as Qingdao Guangdi Packaging Material and Ai De Diagnostic. According to import records, most of these firms have shipped medical supplies to Universal Meditech and Prestige Biotech.

    Mr. Zhu resigned from his positions of chairman of the board and general manager at Ai De Biopharmaceutical in November 2018, according to Chinese documents.

    The Epoch Times called several numbers for Ai De Biopharmaceutical’s headquarters in China, but the numbers have been disconnected or are no longer in service.

    Jessie Zhu’s Operations

    Mr. Zhu was born in China in 1961 and obtained a Bachelor of Science degree from the Beijing University Medical Department in 1984 and a master’s degree from the Peking Union Medical College Hospital in 1988. He went on to conduct bio research at the University of British Columbia in Canada, according to Sina Finance.

    In 1991, Mr. Zhu established IND Dairytech Ltd in Vancouver and became chairman of the board.

    In the late 1990s, Mr. Zhu flew a dozen Holstein cattle (a breed known for high milk production) from Quebec to Beijing to enhance milk production in China, where it was in great need.

    A decade later, Mr. Zhu’s focus switched to breeding technologies. Rather than transporting cattle to China, IND Dairytech began sending Holstein semen and embryos in an effort to develop cattle herds.

    Primarily serving customers in Canada, IND Dairytech was listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange in 2008, delisted in 2011, and acquired shortly afterward by IND Lifetech, another company controlled by Mr. Zhu.

    The Chinese characters of “Ai De” are also in the upper left corner of IND Lifetech’s logo.

    Not long after IND Lifetech acquired IND Dairytech, it changed its name to JingJing Genetics, still based in Canada and controlled by Mr. Zhu.

    In 2008, JingJing Genetics was sued by XY LLC, a Colorado-based company that claimed damages for “conspiracy, deceit, breach of confidence, breach of contract, and inducing breach of contract.”

    XY had developed the technology to “choose the sex of the offspring using sexed semen or sexed embryos” for “non-human mammals, including cattle, horses, pigs, and endangered species,” according to an online statement.

    The company was “the master licensee in control of all sperm sorting in non-human mammals worldwide.”

    JingJing Genetics was allegedly stealing XY’s technology to manufacture and sell bovine sexed semen, but without the strict controls required from a licensee.

    The case was decided in 2012, with the judge ruling against JingJing Genetics for violating intellectual property agreements.

    Nearly 1,000 mice were kept for experimentation, 178 of which were already dead due to the rancid conditions. The mice had resorted to “cannibalism,” in which the more dominant rodents ripped the hair and skin of inferior ones. (Fresno County Public Health Department/Judicial Watch)

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/21/2023 – 15:10

  • Poll Finds Lackluster Desire To Arm, Supply Israel – Even Among GOP
    Poll Finds Lackluster Desire To Arm, Supply Israel – Even Among GOP

    Bad news for the Israel lobby and the warfare state: On the same evening that President Biden delivered an address from the Oval Office to build support for sending $100 billion in weapons and other aid to Israel and Ukraine, CBS News published a poll showing surprisingly lackluster American support for arming and supplying Israel — even among Republicans. 

    By a spread of 52% to 48%, a majority of all Americans oppose giving weapons and supplies to Israel. While that’s close to an even split, Americans are very much united in seeing the latest developments as a cause for concern: 85% are concerned about a wider war in the Middle East, while 79% are concerned that the Hamas-Israel conflict could lead to terrorism in the United States, according to the CBS News/YouGov poll, which was conducted before, during and after Biden’s Wednesday visit to Israel. 

    When it comes to the Biden’s response to the Israel-Hamas war, Americans are split. 44% say Biden has shown the right amount of support for Israel, while 32% say he hasn’t shown enough support and 24% say he’s given too much support. 

    In recent years, the long-standing bipartisan backing of Israel has been cracking, creating a dynamic where Republicans reliably back the Israel government while Democrats increasingly empathize with the Palestinians. However, in the most striking finding of the new poll, a hefty 43% of Republicans say the United States should NOT send weapons and supplies to Israel.  

    Among all Americans, the poll found opposition to arming Israel is strongest in the 30- to 44-year-old cohort, with 64% opposing it. Among those under 30, 59% are against it. At the other end of the age spectrum, 64% of those 65 and older want more weapons shipped to the Zionist state.

    There isn’t much difference among races: 54% of Hispanics oppose sending weapons and supplies to Israel, compared to 52% of blacks and 51% of whites.

    When it comes to humanitarian aid, 76% of Americans say the US government should send it to Israel and 57% say aid should be sent to Palestinians in Gaza. There’s a notable difference across party affiliations, but note even 41% of Republicans support sending humanitarian aid to Gaza:

    Looks like the Israeli propaganda machine will be putting in some overtime. Tie yourselves to the masts, lads — Israel’s hasbara machine has already unleashed the IDF sirens: 

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    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/21/2023 – 14:35

  • Former US Rep. Justin Amash's Relatives Killed In Israeli Bombing
    Former US Rep. Justin Amash’s Relatives Killed In Israeli Bombing

    Via The Ron Paul Institute,

    Former US Rep. Justin Amash (L-MI), who was the only US House Member representing the Libertarian Party, announced Friday on Twitter/X that several of his relatives were killed when Israel bombed Saint Porphyrius Orthodox Church in Gaza. Amash’s relatives, along with many others, were seeking shelter in the Church as Israel continues to flatten Gaza.

    According to The Wall Street Journal, “The Israeli military said that a blast Thursday night on the St. Porphyrius Greek Orthodox Church campus in Gaza City was the result of its airstrike.” The Israeli military said, “The incident is under review.”

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    As one commenter on Amash’s thread pointed out, Saint Porphyrius Church “symbolized coexistence. It’s worth noting that this church is located near the Jewish Quarter in Gaza as well.” Saint Porphyrius Orthodox Church is the third oldest existing Christian church in the world, standing very nearly since the time of Christ.

    Another commenter on Twitter added that “Gaza’s oldest church the Orthodox Church of Saint Porphyrius”…was a refuge for at least 380 civilians. At least 40 have been reported dead and more searches continue among the rubble.” [Officials sources later revised the death toll to 18 people killed and at least 20 injured.]

    Earlier this week Israel is accused of bombing al-Shifa hospital in Gaza – the only Christian hospital in the Palestinian enclave – and hundreds have been reported killed in that attack.

    While Israel has denied responsibility for that bombing, former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak told the BBC that Israel was “determined” to destroy the hospital.

    Additionally, Israel today demanded the evacuation of yet another hospital in Gaza, the Al-Quds Hospital, claiming that it was also on the bombing list. As The Cradle reports, an evacuation is nearly impossible as “the hospital is treating over 400 patients and sheltering 12,000 displaced civilians.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/21/2023 – 14:00

  • "First In The Nation": Arkansas Forces Chinese Company To Sell Its Farmland
    “First In The Nation”: Arkansas Forces Chinese Company To Sell Its Farmland

    Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders announced that Arkansas will require a Chinese-owned company to sell its farmland in Arkansas, saying it will be a first in the nation move that bans foreign parties from “owning agricultural land” in the state, THV11 reported.

    Sanders, along with Attorney General Tim Griffin and other Republican leaders, said that the company Syngenta will have to sell around 160 acres of land in Craighead County, Arkansas. The company has headquarters based in Switzerland and owned by ChemChina, which is a Chinese state-owned business that primarily deals with seeds and pesticides.

    ChemChina is listed by the U.S. Department of Defense as one of many “Chinese military companies” that operate directly or indirectly in the country.

    The announcement comes after the legislature passed a law earlier in 2023 that bans a foreign party controlled business from owning land in Arkansas.

    Sanders claimed Chinese companies operating in the U.S. send back information and technology, “stealing American research and telling our enemies how to target American farms.”

    “That is a clear threat to our national security and to our great farmers, especially since the Chinese government enacted a law in 2017, requiring Chinese citizens abroad to collaborate with their country’s security officials on intelligence work with no questions asked,” the governor said.

    That law states “any organization” must assist or cooperate with state intelligence work. Another Chinese law said “relevant organizations” can’t refuse to collect evidence for an investigation.

    “We will make sure that every company operating in Arkansas is a friend to Arkansas and good to hardworking Arkansans,” Sanders said.

    Syngenta has been notified of the decision and if they refuse, AG Griffin will move forward with legal proceedings to “force” them out of Arkansas.

    “There is nothing that is off limits for [China] if they think that it will strengthen them strategically,” Griffin explained at the press conference. “Whether it be related to engineering or the ability to feed their people, which is a challenge for them.”

    Griffin said Northrup King Seed Co., a subsidiary of Syngenta, will have to divest itself of the land in Craighead County within in two years. If the company fails to do that, Arkansas can have a civil penalty fine of up to 25% of the value of the property.

    The attorney general said the property is worth around $1.12 million, so the fine would be a maximum of $280,000.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/21/2023 – 13:25

  • Gasoline Prices Have Been Insulated From Oil's Surge Until Now
    Gasoline Prices Have Been Insulated From Oil’s Surge Until Now

    By Chunzi Xu, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist

    US gasoline prices have been insulated from oil’s surge so far amid soft demand and relatively high inventories. But if oil persists at $90/barrel, pump prices are poised to climb.

    WTI has rallied about 8% in the past two weeks, with gasoline futures not far behind. Yet pump prices have declined more than 4% in the same period. The physical spot market has been stable or lower in New York and Houston.

    This is because implied gasoline demand in the US is about 3% below what it was this time last year and 6% below the five-year average. Meanwhile, inventories have accumulated above seasonal norms. This trend of weak consumption and growing supply is likely to persist into the winter as US refiners emerge from maintenance next month.

    But gasoline prices will eventually catch up to the futures market, which is sensitive to oil’s volatility, especially given escalating tensions in the Middle East. And it doesn’t take much for any impact at the pump to reach consumers — average gasoline prices currently stand at $3.558 a gallon, that’s below this time last year but far above than any other year in the last decade.

     

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/21/2023 – 12:50

  • You Must Be In 'The Six-Figure Club' To Afford A House
    You Must Be In ‘The Six-Figure Club’ To Afford A House

    The latest housing data shows soaring mortgage rates, elevated prices, and limited inventory continue to worsen the affordability crisis. 

    New data from real estate brokerage Redfin Corp. indicates homebuyers now need a whopping $114,000 salary to afford a median-priced home of $412,000 in September – assuming a 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 7.2% with 20% down. This is a near doubling in salary needed to afford a home since Covid, and since inflation wiped out real wages for two years, more Americans than ever can no longer afford the ‘American Dream’ of a single-family house with a white picket fence, instead, trapped in a cycle of renting. 

    Redfin’s next report, for this month, will likely show another jump in the salary needed to afford an average home because the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has risen 80 percentage points to 8%. 

    In 2012, the salary Americans needed to afford the average home was about $38,000. As a rule of thumb, buyers should never exceed 30% of their income on shelter costs. 

    “US homeownership first became a six-figure club in 2022, thanks to borrowing costs rising at the fastest clip in decades while home prices remained high,” Bloomberg said, adding, “It’s only gotten more expensive with mortgage rates hurdling towards 8%. Existing homeowners are reluctant to move because they’re locked in at lower rates, and new buyers are struggling to find properties they can afford, pushing mortgage applications to a multi-decade low.”

    The NAR Housing Affordability Index clocked in at 91.7 in August, down from 93.9 in July – anything below 100 indicates a household with a median income does not earn enough to be approved for a mortgage on a median-priced home. This was the lowest reading since at least the early 1980s.

    Mortgage rates are likely to stay high over the next few months. 

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    For all those millennials and GenZ-ers who are trapped in a cycle of renting with no personal savings and insurmountable credit card and student loan debt, have you ever thought about moving back home to survive the inflation storm? 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/21/2023 – 12:15

  • Is A Financial Crisis Already Here? US Banks Are Closing 100s Of Branches And Laying Off 1000s Of Workers
    Is A Financial Crisis Already Here? US Banks Are Closing 100s Of Branches And Laying Off 1000s Of Workers

    Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

    I know that there is a lot going on in the world right now, but I just had to write about what is happening to our banks. 

    High interest rates and chaos in the real estate industry are combining to put an enormous amount of pressure on our largest financial institutions.  As a result, banks are getting very tight with their money, they are closing down hundreds of branches, and they are laying off thousands of workers.  We are in the early stages of the worst financial crisis since 2008 and 2009, and I fully expect conditions to get even worse in the months ahead.

    During the first week of October alone, U.S. banks closed a whopping 54 local branches…

    Major US banks are continuing to close branches across the US, leaving an increasing number of Americans without access to basic financial services.

    Bank of America axed 21 branches in the first week of October, according to a bulletin published by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) on Friday.

    Wells Fargo shuttered 15, while US Bank and Chase reported closing nine and three respectively.

    In total, some 54 locations had either closed or were scheduled to close between October 1 and October 7.

    That is just one week!

    Of course bank branches have been closing at a frightening pace for quite some time now.

    Last year, U.S. banks shut down about 2,000 more branches than they opened…

    Banks are closing branches faster than they’re opening new ones. U.S. banks closed over 3,000 branches last year while opening just 1,000. JPMorgan Chase led in branch closures last year, shuttering 144 branches, while opening 133. The trend will likely continue as banks face staunch competition for deposits and younger customers from online banks, fintech firms and Big Tech.

    Unless you live under a rock, I am sure that you have noticed this happening in your own local area.

    For many Americans, a “trip to the bank” is no longer just a few minutes away.

    And our banks are also laying off staggering numbers of workers here in 2023…

    The largest American banks have been quietly laying off workers all year — and some of the deepest cuts are yet to come.

    Even as the economy has surprised forecasters with its resilience, lenders have cut headcount or announced plans to do so, with the key exception being JPMorgan Chase, the biggest and most profitable U.S. bank.

    Pressured by the impact of higher interest rates on the mortgage business, Wall Street deal-making and funding costs, the next five largest U.S. banks have cut a combined 20,000 positions so far this year, according to company filings.

    The banking industry is in trouble.

    Big trouble.

    And this is happening at a time when economic conditions are steadily deteriorating.

    In fact, we just learned that the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators has now fallen for 18 months in a row…

    The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.7 percent in September 2023 to 104.6 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.5 percent in August. The LEI is down 3.4 percent over the six-month period between March and September 2023, an improvement from its 4.6 percent contraction over the previous six months (September 2022 to March 2023).

    “The LEI for the US fell again in September, marking a year and a half of consecutive monthly declines since April 2022,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “In September, negative or flat contributions from nine of the index’s ten components more than offset fewer initial claims for unemployment insurance. Although the six-month growth rate in the LEI is somewhat less negative, and the recession signal did not sound, it still signals risk of economic weakness ahead. So far, the US economy has shown considerable resilience despite pressures from rising interest rates and high inflation. Nonetheless, The Conference Board forecasts that this trend will not be sustained for much longer, and a shallow recession is likely in the first half of 2024.”

    If things are this bad now, what is going to happen if the hot phase of World War III suddenly erupts in the Middle East?

    At this point, nobody can claim that the economy is headed in the right direction.

    During the first nine months of this year, the number of commercial Chapter 11 bankruptcies was 61 percent higher than it was during the same period a year ago…

    A wide array of U.S. businesses have struggled this year. In the first nine months of 2023, commercial Chapter 11 bankruptcies have soared 61% year over year to 4,553, according to Epiq Bankruptcy, which provides U.S. bankruptcy filing data.

    61 percent!

    Let that number sink in for a moment.

    And we have just learned that sales of previously owned homes have dropped to a level not seen since 2010 when the U.S. “was in the midst of a foreclosure crisis”…

    Sales of previously owned homes dropped 2% in September from August to a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of 3.96 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were 15.4% lower compared with September 2022.

    This is the slowest sales pace since October 2010, during the Great Recession, when the market was in the midst of a foreclosure crisis. As a comparison, just two years ago, when mortgage rates hovered around 3%, home sales were running at a 6.6 million pace. The average rate on the 30-year fixed today is right around 8%, according to Mortgage News Daily.

    Speaking of home foreclosures, they are up 34 percent compared to the same time in 2022…

    Home foreclosures are on the rise as Americans continue to grapple with the ongoing cost-of-living crisis.

    That is according to a new report published by real estate data provider ATTOM, which found that foreclosure filings – which includes default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions – surged 28% in the third quarter to 124,539.

    Foreclosures are up 34% from the same time one year ago.

    A new economic crisis is here.

    And the truth is that it is going to get a whole lot worse.

    So even though things are not great now, enjoy these last few days of relative stability while you still can, because war in the Middle East will soon plunge the entire global economy into a state of great turmoil.

    *  *  *

    Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/21/2023 – 11:40

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Oct 21

Today’s News 21st October 2023

  • Why Was It So Hard For Elite Universities To Condemn Hamas Terrorism?
    Why Was It So Hard For Elite Universities To Condemn Hamas Terrorism?

    Authored by Marc Zvi Brettler & Michael B. Poliakoff via RealClear Wire,

    America’s leading universities have an antisemitism problem—and it starts at the top. This past week, university presidents and deans across the country wrote to their students and faculties to express concern in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks on Israel by Hamas. What they said, and what they did not say, provides a window into the culture of intellectual and moral rot and cowardice that reigns at these once-great institutions. 

    Those who attack Jews or Israel are all too often exempt from their excoriation. Hamas terrorists massacred some 1,300 Israelis, took approximately 200 hostages, most of them civilians, and left an additional 3,200 injured, but you would not know it from some university leaders’ missives this week.

    At Harvard University, President Claudine Gay has issued three muddled statements, under pressure, on the horrific events. Her first statement was a tepid confession of “heartbreak” that implied an equivalence between the Hamas attacks and Israel neutralizing the terrorists. This embarrassment was signed by all the university’s senior deans. Only after a barrage of online criticism—and threats by donors—did she muster the strength to condemn the child killers. Not content to leave it alone, she has issued another statement, but still without criticizing the 30-odd student groups who professed to “hold the Israeli regime entirely responsible” for the murder, rape, kidnapping, and torture of Jews, referring instead to the principle of freedom of speech. Let us be clear that these students have freedom of speech, but so does Claudine Gay. She has the right to condemn their words. In 2022, Harvard denounced in no uncertain terms “the capricious and senseless invasion of Ukraine.” Harvard knows how to speak clearly about Ukrainian victims but not, apparently, about Jewish victims.

    Columbia University President Minouche Shafik offered a masterfully slippery statement: “I was devastated by the horrific attack on Israel this weekend and the ensuing violence that is affecting so many people.” While all lives matter, the mention of “ensuing violence” is a reference to Israeli targeting of terrorists—putting it on a par with raping and pillaging by Hamas. She implied moral equivalence. 

    The moral lassitude and obscurantism of Shafik’s statement trickled down. Columbia College Dean Josef Sorett emitted the following: “The events in Israel and Gaza over the past several days have shocked the world and impacted many of our students.” Dean Sorett’s “events in Gaza” are, of course, Israeli military operations undertaken in self-defense and in an effort to kill murderers, which he places on par with the door-to-door murder of civilians in Israel. 

    The dean of Columbia Law School did not outclass her colleague. Gillian Lester wrote to her students and faculty, “The violence that erupted in Israel and Gaza this past weekend is nothing short of tragic,” again implying a moral equivalence between the enemies of the Jewish people and their victims.

    At Middlebury College, the senior leadership wrote to “acknowledge the untold pain, suffering, and loss of life unfolding from the violence happening now in Israel and Palestine.” President Laurie Patton seems unclear about who is making the violence “happen.” She goes on to warn against “hate, racism, ethnic discrimination, antisemitism, or Islamophobia.” The equivalence is complete, and we can move on to meet the real threat: Islamophobia. Compare this muddle to the perfect clarity of Middlebury’s official response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine: It “wreaked untold havoc in the lives of innocent civilians. Russia’s aggression against its democratic neighbor is a violation of international law, made only more egregious by its escalation in the face of international condemnation. I join that condemnation in solidarity with our Middlebury community.” How easy it would have been to revise that statement ever so slightly to say that Hamas “wreaked untold havoc in the lives of innocent civilians. Hamas’s aggression against its democratic neighbor is a violation of international law, made only more egregious by its escalation in the face of international condemnation. I join that condemnation in solidarity with our Middlebury community.”  

    The University of California–Berkeley, which spends $36 million annually on its Division of Equity & Inclusion, may be the most openly antisemitic campus in the country. Its law school is under federal investigation for discriminating against Jews. Student organizations there expressed their “unwavering support” for the Hamas pogrom. The president refused to condemn this statement. Instead, he expressed his heartbreak at “the violence and suffering in Israel and Gaza,” pointedly comparing Israel’s self-defense to the terrorist attacks themselves, gesturing, like too many others, to the “complex history” of the situation. 

    In reality though, no complexity is so great as to obscure the distinction between the intentional slaughter of innocents and targeted strikes against terrorists. Some schools eventually issued careful statements—but their initial reaction—or lack of reaction—is most telling, especially when contrasted with quick and decisive past declarations of outrage.

    At Stanford University, the administration has covered itself in special disgrace by adding dishonesty to cowardice, despite finally acknowledging the horror. Criticized for its silence about the weekend’s slaughter, Stanford claimed in an unsigned statement that it “does not take positions on geopolitical issues and news events.” But when Russia invaded Ukraine, Stanford’s president released this statement: “The unprovoked, full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia, and the attack it represents on democracy, is beyond shocking.” He continued, “It has been remarkable to witness the courage and resilience of the Ukrainian people.” Stanford also commented when a child’s skipping rope was found in a tree in 2021, where it had been tangled for some years, officially denouncing it as a “a potent symbol of anti-Black racism and violence that is completely unacceptable under any circumstances.” Stanford discovered the principle of institutional neutrality, it seems, just in time for the Sabbath assault on Israeli civilians.

    Under the principle of institutional neutrality, colleges and universities should indeed refrain from speaking corporately on contemporary social or political issues, unless they transcend the institution’s values as a whole (such as the wanton taking of innocent life by terrorists). Higher education’s mission is to encourage diversity of thought. But condemning brutality and savagery, whether the murder of George Floyd under the knee of a policeman, or the civilian carnage Hamas wrought, is not a political statement. No one has asked presidents to endorse Zionism or the two-state solution or anything vaguely geopolitical. They needed only to affirm human decency without which the university is a place of moral chaos.

    However serpentine the ongoing contortions of these administrators, what is revealed in these official reactions by colleges is a cancerous moral rot and intellectual confusion. Bothsidesism is a symptom; the root cause is worse. They were perfectly able to rush to condemn the murder of George Floyd, the seedy depravities uncovered by the #MeToo movement, and the brutal invasion of Ukraine—as they should. They pronounce vocally and volubly on the events of January 6, 2021, and on horrible killings at houses of worship. They take flamboyant public positions on everything from affirmative action to climate policy to marriage equality. So why is it so hard to condemn the slaughter of Jewish babies? Why is it so hard to offer proper support and empathy to their grieving Jewish students?

    The University of Pennsylvania’s president had no word of censure for Penn’s Palestine Writes festival, which ran between Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur and featured Pink Floyd’s Roger Waters, notorious for exhibitionist antisemitism. Then came the anemic initial response of Penn’s president to the Hamas atrocities. Jon Huntsman, a Penn graduate and donor and a former governor of Utah, pinpointed the cause of his alma mater’s failure: “Moral relativism has fueled the university’s race to the bottom.” If only Penn’s administration possessed such moral (and pedagogical) clarity.

    To be fair, some universities have offered proper statements that unambiguously condemn the pogrom of Hamas. But these are few and far between. The United States used to lead in higher education, but now we need to look for leadership abroad, for example in the exemplary statement of the German Rectors’ Conference that noted quickly, clearly, and unambiguously: 

    We are deeply shocked and appalled by the terrorist attack of Hamas on Israel, the terrible massacres, and the kidnappings. 

    On behalf of all German universities, I would like to express our sincerest condolences and heartfelt sympathy. We are deeply saddened by the senseless loss of life. Our thoughts are with those killed and injured, those still in danger, and their families and friends. 

    As the German Rectors’ Conference, the voice of German universities, we stand in solidarity with the Israeli universities and academic colleges and all their members. We would be grateful if you could share this message of sympathy and solidarity with your member institutions.

    Educational institutions have a responsibility to educate and lead—not only in subject matters but in basic issues of morality. Those who fail to condemn the slaughter of children and fail to show empathy to their students who identify with this slaughter, are failing their mission at the most basic level. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/21/2023 – 00:00

  • How Much Do EV Batteries Cost?
    How Much Do EV Batteries Cost?

    The cost of an electric vehicle (EV) battery pack can vary depending on composition and chemistry.

    In this graphic, Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti and Sabrina Lam use data from Benchmark Minerals Intelligence to showcase the different costs of battery cells on popular electric vehicles.

    Size Matters

    Some EV owners are taken by surprise when they discover the cost of replacing their batteries.

    Depending on the brand and model of the vehicle, the cost of a new lithium-ion battery pack might be as high as $25,000:

    The price of an EV battery pack can be shaped by various factors such as raw material costs, production expenses, packaging complexities, and supply chain stability. One of the main factors is chemical composition.

    Graphite is the standard material used for the anodes in most lithium-ion batteries.

    However, it is the mineral composition of the cathode that usually changes. It includes lithium and other minerals such as nickel, manganese, cobalt, or iron. This specific composition is pivotal in establishing the battery’s capacity, power, safety, lifespan, cost, and overall performance.

    Lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide (NCA) battery cells have an average price of $120.3 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), while lithium nickel cobalt manganese oxide (NCM) has a slightly lower price point at $112.7 per kWh. Both contain significant nickel proportions, increasing the battery’s energy density and allowing for longer range.

    At a lower cost are lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which are cheaper to make than cobalt and nickel-based variants. LFP battery cells have an average price of $98.5 per kWh. However, they offer less specific energy and are more suitable for standard- or short-range EVs.

    Which Battery Dominates the EV Market?

    In 2021, the battery market was dominated by NCM batteries, with 58% of the market share, followed by LFP and NCA, holding 21% each.

    Looking ahead to 2026, the market share of LFP is predicted to nearly double, reaching 38%.

    NCM is anticipated to constitute 45% of the market and NCA is expected to decline to 7%.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/20/2023 – 23:30

  • Turley: The Trump Gag Order Should Be Struck Down
    Turley: The Trump Gag Order Should Be Struck Down

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    Below is my column in The Hill on the imposition of a gag order on former President Donald Trump by U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan. Despite my long-standing criticism of Trump’s personal attacks on judges and critics, this gag order should be curtailed or struck down on appeal. While the odds tend to favor the lower court in such orders, there is ample reason to object to the scope and language of the order. The ill-defined bar on criticizing the prosecution or witnesses (including one of Trump’s opponents in this election) raises serious free speech concerns. It is also unlikely to have any appreciable impact on the heated public debate over this and other prosecutions of the presidential candidate. Much of this campaign will focus on the alleged weaponization of the criminal justice system. While Trump is still allowed to criticize the case generally, the vague order cuts too deeply into his right to criticize the prosecutor, the judge, and witnesses in the case in this election.

    Here is the column:

    The imposition of a gag order on former President Donald Trump was overwhelmingly applauded by pundits and press alike. Journalists described the order from U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan as “narrow” and “limited.” Most of them lionized Chutkan as an “unflinching” and “no-nonsense”  judge who would not tolerate Trump’s penchant for personal attacks and reckless rhetoric.

    However, this order should concern everyone who values freedom of speech. While the odds may favor Chutkan on appeal, this order should be overturned as overbroad and dangerous.

    For years, many of us have been criticized Trump for his personal attacks on judges and opponents alike. Undeterred, Trump has continued such inflammatory attacks on “deranged” Special Counsel Jack Smith and the “biased, Trump-hating Judge” Chutkan. Smith has pushed aggressively for a gag order, even though one of the major issues in Trump’s campaign is whether the Biden Administration has weaponized the criminal justice system against him and other Republicans.

    This week, Chutkan issued a partial gag order and stressed that she will not allow Trump to conduct a “smear campaign” in which he seeks to “vilify and implicitly encourage violence against public servants who are simply doing their jobs.” She stressed that “no other criminal defendant would be allowed to do so, and I’m not going to allow it in this case.” Chutkan reflects this trend in stating categorically that these are the limits that must be imposed regardless of the defendant.

    These orders come at a great cost — limiting both parties and counsels in raising objections to alleged abuses of the government. The First Amendment was written in the aftermath of such abuses, including the infamous prosecution of publisher John Peter Zenger 290 years ago in 1733.

    Some polls show that a majority now believe the Trump prosecutions are “politically motivated.” Tens of millions oppose the prosecutions, and this will be the single most-discussed issue of the campaign. Yet, one candidate would be both the subject of this national debate and a gag order barring full participation in it.

    Chutkan steadfastly refused to recognize that either this case or this defendant are far from typical. Her order bars Trump from making statements against Smith, his staff, court personnel, and potential witnesses. That last category could include one of Trump’s opponents in the presidential election, former Vice President Mike Pence.

    If Chutkan had simply barred statements targeting court staff or jurors, there would be no controversy. But she has imposed a vaguely worded court order that could turn campaign speeches into criminal contempt.

    While appellate courts have largely ruled in favor of lower courts’ gag orders, there have long been constitutional concerns over these limits on not just the free speech rights of defendants but also their zealous representation by defense counsel.

    It is not surprising that Smith dismisses such concerns. Smith has long adopted extreme legal positions that ignore constitutional values. This includes his prosecution of the former governor of Virginia, Robert McDonnell (R), which was reversed in a unanimous 8-0 decision by the Supreme Court in 2016.

    The courts remain divided on the standards for curtailing the free speech rights of a defendant. A closely analogous case is the corruption trial of Rep. Harold E. Ford Sr. (D–Tenn.). The district court barred Ford from making any “extrajudicial statement that a reasonable person would expect to be disseminated by means of public communication” that included criticism of the motives of the government or basis, merits, or evidence of the prosecution.

    The United States Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit rejected the gag order as overbroad and stressed that any such limits on free speech should be treated as “presumptively void and may be upheld only on the basis of a clear showing that an exercise of First Amendment rights will interfere with the rights of the parties to a fair trial.”

    There remains a division on the courts of what showing is needed, but there is little evidence of any true balancing in Chutkan’s decision. This and the other trials will remain the focus of heated debate in this campaign. Her order will only silence the voice of the man who many feel is the victim of politically motivated prosecutions. This order will do little to reduce the criticism or the coverage.

    Ironically, it is a level of restraint that Judge Chutkan herself has failed to show in the past. For example, in sentencing a rioter in 2022, Chutkan said that the rioters “were there in fealty, in loyalty, to one man — not to the Constitution.”

    She added that “[i]t’s a blind loyalty to one person who, by the way, remains free to this day.”

    That would seem to imply the guilt of an individual who was not even charged. Yet Chutkan has refused to recuse herself in now trying the very man she was referencing as responsible for the crimes of that day.

    As has long been the case, many are turning a blind eye to the implications of this order. They cannot see beyond the name at the top of the caption page. But this order would allow any judge to effectively strip a political candidate of the ability to contest the merits and motivations involved in his own prosecution, including challenging the veracity of prosecutors or witnesses.

    In some of these cases, there is ample reason for such criticism. While I have long said that the Mar-a-Lago prosecution by Smith is well-supported in both law and facts, other prosecutions currently ongoing are clearly politically motivated. The most obvious is the prosecution brought by Alvin Bragg in New York — a case that contorts existing law in an attempt to bag a political figure unpopular in his jurisdiction.

    While the Chutkan gag order does not extend to the other cases, they constitute a daisy-chain of trials that will have Trump running between courts before the election. There is much to criticize in Smith’s second indictment, which will be tried before a judge who previously denounced Trump in a district where 95 percent of the voters opposed Trump.

    After Chutkan ordered a trial just before Super Tuesday, she is now gagging only one candidate — the very candidate who is campaigning against the weaponization of the criminal justice system. You do not have to like or support Trump to recognize the serious problem inherent in such a gag order.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/20/2023 – 23:00

  • De-Dollarization? China Completes First Digital Yuan Purchase For Cross-Border Oil Transaction
    De-Dollarization? China Completes First Digital Yuan Purchase For Cross-Border Oil Transaction

    De-dollarization continues accelerating with news of the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange (SHPGX), a Chinese-backed exchange for trading energy-related products, settling its first cross-border transaction in digital yuan.

    Chinese-based financial news outlet “Yicai” first reported PetroChina International bought one million barrels of crude oil using digital yuan on Thursday. It was the exchange’s first overseas oil settlement in digital yuan. However, the name of the seller was not disclosed. 

    SHPGX has made several transactions in yuan earlier this year: In March, PetroChina and TotalEnergies completed a yuan-denominated liquefied natural gas transaction on the exchange. According to the exchange, four such LNG transactions have occurred this year. 

    China’s central bank began the digital yuan project in 2014 and has piloted the electronic currency in numerous regions across China. The world’s second-largest economy has been preparing to use the yuan and its digital version in international trade and finance as an alternative to the dollar. 

    In August, Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called for BRICS nations to create a common currency as the world furiously searches for ways to circumvent the dollar-based financial system. 

    Brazil’s president said a BRICS currency “increases our payment options and reduces our vulnerabilities.” 

    The US shutting Russia out of the SWIFT messaging system that underpins most global payments in response to its invasion of Ukraine has supercharged the de-dollarization trend. 

    It remains to be seen who exactly PetroChina paid digital yuan for the crude oil, but it might not be out of the question that it was Russia, considering it’s been shut out of the SWIFT system, plus oil exports to China have hit a record high. 

     

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/20/2023 – 22:30

  • US Announces New Immigration Program For Ecuadorians
    US Announces New Immigration Program For Ecuadorians

    Authored by Stephen Katte via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A new legal immigration pathway for immigrants from Ecuador has been implemented by the Biden Administration to help slow the influx of illegal immigrants trekking to enter the United States at its Mexico border.

    Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas speaks during the daily news briefing at the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room of the White House on May 11, 2023. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

    According to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Family Reunification Parole (FRP) allows U.S-based Ecuadorians to sponsor immediate family members abroad to come into the country legally.

    Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas said the FRP process will open up new pathways for legal immigration, while also hopefully reducing the number of people making the dangerous journey from Ecuador using people smugglers.

    “Establishing this process for certain Ecuadorian nationals will ensure more families can access lawful pathways rather than placing themselves at the mercy of smugglers to make the dangerous journey,” he said.

    “Those who do not avail themselves of family reunification parole or other lawful, safe, and orderly pathways, and attempt to enter the United States unlawfully will continue to face tough consequences,” he added.

    Hundreds of illegal immigrants seeking asylum in line for Immigration Customs Enforcement appointments outside of the Jacob K. Javits Federal Building in New York City on June 6, 2023. (David Dee Delgado/Getty Images)

    To qualify, Ecuadorians must have a family member who is already a citizen or permanent resident to sponsor them for an immigrant visa. If approved, officials will invite the applicant to enter the United States under the humanitarian parole authority without waiting for a visa.

    Under the new FRP process, qualifying applicants must be outside the United States at the time of application and go through all the usual screening, vetting, and medical requirements. Anyone who has already received an immigrant visa is not eligible.

    As part of the FRP, migrants can remain in the United States for up to three years, apply for work permits while they wait for an immigrant visa, and then apply to become a lawful permanent resident.

    The process is being touted as much faster than the family-based visa system, which is nearly permanently backlogged and capped at a specific number. The FRP already includes eligible nationals from Cuba, Haiti, Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras.

    Unvetted immigrants prepare to be transported by bus to processing facilities in Yuma, Ariz., on May 18, 2023. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)

    Illegal entry into America is classed as a federal crime and can attract penalties such as deportation, and bans on re-entry into the country.

    Chaos in Ecuador Driving Up Emigrant Numbers

    Ecuador has previously been in the midst of its own immigration crisis, as millions fled socialist Venezuela to escape hyperinflation and extreme poverty in the once wealthy nation. In recent years, Ecuadorians have also been fleeing their country in huge numbers due to a struggling economy and a massive uptick in violent crimes from drug cartels and street gangs.

    In July, Ecuador’s President Guillermo Lasso was forced to declare a state of emergency and night curfews in three coastal provinces after a wave of violence swept through the country, leaving at least eight dead.

    Ecuadorian President Guillermo Lasso walks on the day of his annual report to the nation, a week after dissolving the National Assembly and calling for early elections in Quito, Ecuador, on May 24, 2023. (Karen Toro/Reuters)

    Ecuadorian presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was also gunned down Aug. 9 while leaving a political rally. The six men accused of the crime were killed in prison while awaiting the results of the investigation into the crime.

    The State Department has advised Americans not to visit certain areas of the country due to heightened risks of kidnapping, assault, and murder.

    The ongoing chaos has seen record numbers of Ecuadorians attempt to flee to safer countries. Federal data shows that Border Patrol reportedly apprehended nearly 99,000 Ecuadorians who entered the United States without authorization in the last 12 months.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/20/2023 – 22:00

  • RFK Jr's Presidential Bid Hinges On Ballot Access
    RFK Jr’s Presidential Bid Hinges On Ballot Access

    Earlier this month, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr announced he was abandoning a Democratic Party that’s overtly hostile to his 2024 presidential campaign, choosing to run as an independent candidate instead.

    He’s already drawing a hefty 16% in three-way contest with Biden and Trump, according to a recent NPR/PBS/Marist poll. However, all the public support in the world will mean nothing unless RFK Jr can overcome a major hurdle for any independent candidate: getting his name on the ballot in 50 states and the District of Columbia. 

    There’s more to that feat than gathering signatures. “It takes significant expertise to navigate specific rules for every state and the requirements needed before signatures can even begin to be collected — and then to beat back the legal challenges that will almost certainly follow,” writes Politico‘s Brittany Gibson. 

    Kennedy announced his independent run in Philadelphia on Oct 9 (Hannah Beier/Bloomberg)

    Time is a big factor, and one that makes the ballot challenge all the more daunting for Kennedy’s campaign, given his relatively late start. Consider that the nascent No Labels party has been at it for two years says it will complete the process for 28 states by New Year’s, with a goal of hitting 50 for the election.

    Utah’s deadline comes first, and in less than three months — on January 6. “I wondered if they had thought it all through before making the switch over,” ballot access expert Michael Arno tells Politico. 

    Signature requirements vary wildly: Kennedy has to get 200,000 signatures in California but a mere 275 in Tennessee. To be on the safe side, campaigns need to exceed those targets so they still qualify after signatures are scrutinized. Many states add an extra level of complexity by requiring that the group of people signing a ballot petition represent various parts of the state to a stipulated extent.  

    There’s also a need to hire signature collectors, with the cost typically coming in between $7 and $10 per autograph. Those collectors need thick skin, as they’re prone to being confronted by party loyalists angered over an independent’s potential “spoiler” role. 

    To defend their duopoly, Democratic and Republican parties each routinely file legal challenges against independent candidates, and Kennedy’s campaign is surely bracing for legal battles over the coming months. 

    However, it’s not yet obvious which party has the most to lose from Kennedy’s presence on the ballot. In the latest NPR/PBS/Marist polls, Kennedy lifted Biden’s lead over Trump from 3 points to 7.   

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Kennedy’s impact on Trump and Biden will likely change over time, as he stakes out different policy positions. Even before the Hamas attack on Israel stirred that issue, Kennedy alienated progressives and non-interventionist libertarians with full-throated support of Israel that went well beyond the level of lip-service often deemed mandatory of politicians. Meanwhile, his flirtation with reparations for black people — which his campaign calls “direct redress payments” — is certain to rankle disaffected Republicans. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/20/2023 – 21:30

  • Grenada, 1983: Catalyst To Upgrading Special Operations
    Grenada, 1983: Catalyst To Upgrading Special Operations

    Authored by Forrest Marion via RealClear Wire,

    In mid-October 1983, a “sordid little Leninist dictatorship” on the Caribbean Island of Grenada crumbled, resulting in the British Commonwealth country’s takeover by a more-leftist military junta. The situation immediately raised concerns in Washington regarding the potential for a large-scale hostage crisis in addition to the threat of regional instability within the Cold War’s context.

    From 1979 to 1983, the revolutionary Grenadian government, led by Maurice Bishop, established close ties with Cuba and the Soviet Union. Probably its most important project was the construction of an international airport with a 9,000-foot runway. The government stated the airport was for tourism, but, inexplicably, the hotels to support the anticipated increase in visitors were lacking. Tellingly, the Point Salines airport on Grenada’s southern coast was to be capable of handling Soviet military aircraft. President Ronald Reagan called Grenada “a Soviet-Cuban colony being readied as a major military bastion to export terror and undermine democracy.”

    On October 19, 1983, Bishop – considered not leftist enough by some of his fellow Marxists – was murdered. Within days, Reagan approved the chairman of the joint chiefs’ recommendation to develop plans for possible hostilities on the island, should the Grenadians and/or the Cubans – 450 of the latter were building the airport – oppose a U.S. evacuation of its citizens. Of greatest concern to the Reagan administration was the presence of several hundred medical students on the island. It feared “another Tehran” – referring to the hostage crisis in 1979-80 that contributed to President Jimmy Carter’s failed reelection bid.

    On October 25, 1983, an eight thousand-member U.S.-led coalition force invaded Grenada. Its objective was to “conduct military operations to protect and evacuate US and designated foreign nationals from Grenada, neutralize Grenadian forces, stabilize the internal situation, and maintain the peace.” To no one’s surprise, the operation was one-sided and short – most hostilities ended within 72 hours – but it was somewhat akin to an NFL team defeating a scrub club, 7-3. Regardless of media coverage that gave the impression of a flawless battlefield victory, “it was an ugly win, with many problems” surrounding the employment of special operations forces.

    Instances of poor operational planning and deficiencies in areas such as the knowledge of conditions on the ground at Grenada, interservice cooperation, and communications abounded. Although Washington had closely followed developments in Grenada since 1979, military planners lacked current maps of the island. In numerous cases during the operation, various military elements did not share common radio frequencies or system compatibility, contributing to the widely publicized anecdote of one military member on the ground at Grenada resorting to a payphone to call back to the United States for artillery support. While the story became an urban legend (at least one similar incident featuring a regular phone did occur, however), the actual deficiencies in communications provided the ideal platform for the “payphone” anecdote to spread far and wide – including senior U.S. officials and Hollywood.

    The unfinished but usable airfield at Port Salines was a major objective. Early on October 25th, as the lead C-130 aircraft carrying the airfield seizure package approached, it lost navigational and infrared systems. Coupled with unexpected rain showers and low ceilings, the aircraft commander passed the formation’s lead to another Hercules. Following the reshuffling of aircraft, and learning the Grenadians were awaiting the assault, the Army Ranger 1st Battalion commander, Wes Taylor, directed his men to jump from only 500 feet above the ground. Lieutenant Colonel Taylor’s impromptu decision probably saved numerous lives, as the Grenadians could not achieve a trajectory low enough for their antiaircraft guns to target the aircraft. In any case, the Americans’ reception was not the “pina coladas” that one senior Air Force briefer had led the aircrews to expect.

    Air Force combat controllers were among the several types of special operations forces in Grenada, some of whom jumped in with the Rangers. While the Rangers established a perimeter around the Salines airfield, the combat controllers ensured the safe, timely, and coordinated flow and movement of aircraft during landings, takeoffs, and ground operations, and following the set-up of radios, navigational aids, and lighting, they handled those duties plus airspace coordination.

    Gaining actual control of the field was extremely difficult, however. One combat control officer recalled, “Our real issue . . . was that the Army and the Navy and Marine Corps were all attempting to use the airfield as well [as the Air Force], and no one had deconflicted the control. . .. Everybody had their own plan. . .. [and] was trying to execute it on the same piece of real estate.” Each Service thought it was the primary airfield user and in charge. In one case, an Air Force combat control officer and an Army superior officer nearly came to blows when an Army artillery battery which had set up on one side of the airfield began firing across the runway! In the chaotic environment at Port Salines, near-misses occurred “all the time.”

    Upgrading Special Operations

    From the close of America’s Southeast Asia military operations, U.S. special operations forces experienced significant trials in the decade that followed, marked particularly by the failed Iranian hostage rescue attempt in 1980 and the Grenada operation’s mixed record three years later. In the aftermath of Iran-Grenada, several congressional leaders took the initiative to reorganize the Pentagon’s special operations forces, culminating in the creation of U.S. Special Operations Command in 1987.

    Looking back from 1991, U.S. Army Col. William G. Boykin – later a 3-star general – wrote in his war college research paper of a key Senate hearing five years earlier in which retired Maj. Gen. Richard Scholtes provided “compelling testimony” concerning Grenada. Scholtes, the Joint Special Operations Command commander for the operation, explained to the senators how his forces were “misused” and “robbed of their unique capabilities by the conventional planners and chain of command,” leading to “relatively significant casualties in Grenada as a result of numerous fundamental misunderstandings of their tactics and capabilities.”

    The effect was powerful. The next day, Senator William Cohen (R-Maine) introduced a revised version of his original special operations bill as an amendment to the 1987 defense authorization bill. Cohen told his fellow lawmakers:

    I do not believe that this record is attributable to persistent bad luck or an inadequate caliber of men in the armed services. In my view, we have not been effectively organized to fight the most likely battles of the present or the future.

    Both houses of Congress passed the special operations measures. Two months later, in October 1986, President Reagan signed the 1987 defense bill into law, which included the framework for U.S. Special Operations Command. In the coming years, Cohen’s bleak assessment was destined to change – a fact he undoubtedly appreciated while serving as the nation’s defense secretary a decade later.

    From a broader perspective, the brief Grenada operation in 1983 began the post-Vietnam rebuilding of the positive image of America’s military in the eyes of many citizens. That rebuilding continued with another short, successful operation in the 1989 removal of Manuel Noriega from Panama. In 1991, during the vastly larger, successful operation against Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi regime – U.S. objectives remained limited – the American public’s favorable view of its armed forces reached a high not seen in decades. At the same time, the long overdue recognition of U.S. veterans of the Southeast Asia conflict was a welcome corollary.

    But the 1990s also began a trend in the U.S. military that threatened cohesion and combat readiness. Like the well-known tragedy at Parris Island in 1956 in which six Marine recruits perished in a swamp, beginning with the Clinton administration in 1993 the Pentagon wandered into the swamp of social engineering for political ends. Clinton’s “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” policy permitting homosexuals in the armed forces began the process that, three decades later, helped bring us to where we are now: neo-Maoist (self-loathing) diversity trainings; Orwellian “memory hole” treatment of military heroes; and drag-queen-, abortion-, and transgender-related perversions – all of which are front-and-center in the U.S. armed forces.

    None of this contributes to the current recruiting crisis, we are told, however. Put another way, if one wished to destroy the U.S. military from within, what might one do differently?

    For the first time, the American military is rated “weak” by the respected Heritage Foundation. Meanwhile, China continues its engagement in low-level hostilities against the United States that it could ramp up at any moment; ideally, not until victory seems assured. As I remember from a 1980s’ radio sermon on the Book of Jeremiah: “Payday comes someday. . .. Payday comes some day.” Although the national context differs today, Jeremiah wrote of Judah: “Yet I shall not make a full end of you; But I shall correct you properly And by no means leave you unpunished.” . . . Perhaps it will be so with us.     

    Forrest L. Marion, Ph.D., is a retired U.S. Air Force officer and military historian. He is the author of Flight Risk: The Coalition’s Air Advisory Mission in Afghanistan, 2005-2015 (Naval Institute Press, 2018), and (forthcoming), Standing Up Space Force: The Road to the Nation’s Sixth Armed Service (Naval Institute Press).

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/20/2023 – 21:00

  • "Dangerous And Misguided": California AG Flips Out After Judge Strikes Down Assault Weapons Ban
    “Dangerous And Misguided”: California AG Flips Out After Judge Strikes Down Assault Weapons Ban

    California Attorney General Bob Bonta is hoppin’ mad after a federal judge in San Diego declared the state’s law banning assault weapons to be unconstitutional, and that a 1989 prohibition on certain semi-automatic weapons could not stand in light of a US Supreme Court ruling last year that expanded gun rights.

    In a 79-page ruling on Thursday, US District Judge Roger Benitez said that the state’s ban deprived law-abiding people from owning semiautomatic firearms like the AR-15 (in certain configurations) is “extreme,” and violates the US Constitution’s Second Amendment right to “keep and bear arms.”

    Benitez also (accurately) notes that criminals are already in possession of “assault weapons,” and that “Rather than being outgunned, many citizens want these same firearms as a defense against criminal attacks.”

    Benitez then provided examples of self-defense that are rarely picked up in the media, starting with a pregnant woman in Florida, who was able to defend her home from violent attackers using an AR-15.

    According to Benitez, in light of the US Supreme Court striking down New York state’s limits on carrying concealed handguns outside the home, that there were “no founding era dead ringers or historical twins” to California’s assault weapons ban, and that the state couldn’t point to any historical laws before it adopted its ban.

    California in 1989 became the first U.S. state to ban assault weapons, acting in the wake of a school shooting that killed five children.

    The legal challenge was brought by several California residents who wanted to own firearms like the AR-15 as well as by gun rights groups including the Firearms Policy Coalition, the California Gun Rights Foundation and the Second Amendment Foundation.

    Benitez, an appointee of Republican former President George W. Bush, said California’s decision to ban assault weapons “creates the extreme policy that a handful of criminals can dictate the conduct and infringe on the freedom of law-abiding citizens.” -Reuters

    In response to the ruling, AG Bonta fired off an angry letter and filed an appeal, calling Benitez’s decision “dangerous and misguided.” We expect the state’s liberal 9th Circuit Court of Appeals to agree, after which the US Supreme Court will need to weigh in (or not).

    Meanwhile, California gun owners aren’t exactly overjoyed. As one anonymous user on Calguns.net posted in response:

    After Duncan (not to mention Heller, Peruta, Bruen, etc., etc.) talk of this being a win is just delusional. NOTHING has changed for the better. In fact it’s far WORSE.

    Can I buy handguns the rest of the nation can? NO.
    Can I open carry? NO
    Can I carry concealed? NOT AFTER JAN 1, 2024
    STD mags? NO
    Can I own AR-15s or the like that aren’t bastardized, unsafe, nonstop ugly a*s reminders of our impotence? NO
    Can I buy ammo online like I used to? NOT WITHOUT JUMPING THROUGH FFL03+COE HOOPS).
    For crying out loud people, we can’t even buy ammo without first asking permission and then having to paying for that permission (background check)!!

    What a joke this all is. And there’s so much more I haven’t even thought of. You call this winning? Wake up. I’m done.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/20/2023 – 20:30

  • India Rejects Russian Demand To Pay For Oil In Chinese Yuan
    India Rejects Russian Demand To Pay For Oil In Chinese Yuan

    By Tsvetana Paraskova of Oilprice.com

    India’s government is expected to reject demands from Russian oil companies to pay for Russia’s crude oil imports in Chinese yuan, Indian officials told Bloomberg on Friday.

    Russia and its companies need Chinese currency as Russian trade has become much more reliant on China after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions on Russia. Moscow has a lot of Indian rupees, but it can’t spend them all while it needs yuan. Russian firms have largely ditched dollar and euro payments due to the Western sanctions and the fact that Russia has been cut off from the SWIFT banking payment system.

    Russian oil companies have been asking lately for payments in yuan, but the Indian government – which owns 70% of the refiners in the world’s third-largest crude oil importer – will not agree to these demands, according to Bloomberg’s sources.

    Some crude cargoes from Russia to India have been recently delayed because the parties have failed to agree on the currency of the payment, sources at refiners told Bloomberg.

    Earlier this week, unnamed Finance Ministry sources told Reuters that payment in Chinese currency of seven cargoes of Russian crude oil imported by state-run Indian oil refineries is being held up over the Indian government’s new-found hesitancy to accept this form of payment.

    State-run Indian Oil Corporation has settled purchases in yuan previously, while Bharat Petroleum Corp and Hindustan Petroleum have not yet resorted to the Chinese currency, though direct Russian suppliers have requested this. 

    India has hiked imports of Russian crude in the past year due to the cheaper Russian supply compared to crudes from the Middle East.

    Between April and September, the first half of India’s 2023/2024 fiscal year, Indian imports of Russian crude oil more than doubled to 1.76 million barrels per day (bpd) from 780,000 bpd in the same period of the 2022/2023 year, per vessel-tracking data cited by Reuters.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/20/2023 – 20:05

  • "He Not A Terrorist": FBI Arrests Man Living In Parents' Basement For Train Derailment
    “He Not A Terrorist”: FBI Arrests Man Living In Parents’ Basement For Train Derailment

    Local media Fox 8 reports that a Cleveland man, who lives with his parents, was arrested last week on federal terrorism charges for sabotaging railroad tracks. 

    According to a complaint filed in federal court, FBI agents say 43-year-old Joseph Findley jammed metal objects into the tracks near Cleveland’s St. Clair-Superior neighborhood. Agents say Findley’s action led to a CSX derailment in August:

    The federal investigation began in August, when CSX employees reported that their train struck objects that had been wedged into a switch on the tracks near East 55th Street and Dominion Energy. The obstruction caused some of the wheels on the train to derail, but eventually they fell back into place on the tracks. -Fox 8

    After the derailment in August, FBI agents began their investigation:

    When FBI agents began their investigation, surveillance cameras at Dominion Energy were not positioned to show the nearby railroad tracks. However, the company agreed to change the angle of the cameras, and that’s when they captured images of a bald man in shorts and a black shirt placing items on the tracks a total of five times between August and Oct. 1.

    When shown photos of the suspect, an employee at a nearby business identified him as Joseph Findley. When federal authorities executed a search warrant at Findley’s home on Friday and placed him under arrest, they say he admitted that he had placed rail spikes on the tracks, but denied he intended to cause trains to derail. -Fox 8

    Findley’s mother told the local media outlet that her son was “depressed because he lost his job, he lost his girlfriend, but he never did anything like that.” 

    She continued, “They’re nuts, he’s not a terrorist. I think they all exaggerated it because he never did anything bad.”

    However, being depressed about Biden’s crap economy of persistent inflation is not an excuse to place metal items on CSX tracks. 

    This brings us to a much larger issue: A surge in train derailments nationwide over the last year. Last week, a freight train carrying military vehicles derailed in downtown Colorado Springs. And, of course, let’s not forget about the toxic train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio. 

    Even though equipment failures cause many of these train derailments, we must ask the question: How many were sabotaged? 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/20/2023 – 19:40

  • The FDA's Ties To The Gates Foundation
    The FDA’s Ties To The Gates Foundation

    Authored by Maryanne Demasi via The Brownstone Institute,

    In 2017, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) entered into a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

    Under the MOU, the two entities agreed to share information to “facilitate the development of innovative products, including medical countermeasures,” such as diagnostics, vaccines, and therapeutics to combat disease transmission during a pandemic.

    The FDA has MOUs with many academic and non-profit organisations, but few have as much to gain as Bill Gates, who has invested billions into pandemic countermeasures.

    Experts are concerned the Gates Foundation could have undue influence over the FDA’s regulatory decisions of these countermeasures.

    David Gortler, an ex-senior adviser to the FDA commissioner between 2019 and 2021, says he is “suspicious” of the MOU.

    “If the Gates Foundation establishes an MOU with a regulator on a product they want to develop, it seems like it would be a conflict of interest.  What if every other drug company did the exact same thing as the Gates Foundation?” he says. 

    Gortler, now a fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center in Washington, DC, explained that normally, meetings between developers and regulators are supposed to be an official part of the public record and subject to Freedom of Information Act requests. 

    “However, an MOU such as this can circumvent the usual requirements for the transparency of official communications,” says Gortler. 

    “This way their communications can be kept secret.”

    David Bell, a former medical officer for the World Health Organisation (WHO) who now works as a public health physician and biotech consultant, agrees that the MOU has potential to corrupt the regulatory process.

    “The narrative is that philanthropic foundations can only be good, because they’re making vaccines and saving thousands of lives, so we need to cut the red tape and help the FDA get stuff done quickly otherwise children will die,” says Bell. “But in reality, it has potential to corrupt the whole system.”

    Bell adds, “Speaking generally, close relationships between regulators and developers raise inevitable risks that shortcuts and favours will breakdown the rigorousness of the product review, putting the public at risk.”

    Revolving door

    The FDA has been roundly criticised for its “revolving door.” Ten of the past 11 FDA commissioners left the agency and secured roles with pharmaceutical companies they once regulated.

    Similarly, the Gates Foundation hired high-ranking members of the FDA, who bring with them intimate knowledge of the regulatory process.

    For example, Murray Lumpkin had a 24-year career at the FDA, serving as senior advisor to the FDA commissioner and representative for global issues. Now, he is deputy director of regulatory affairs at the Gates Foundation, and signatory on the MOU. 

    And Margaret Hamburg, who served as FDA commissioner between 2009 and 2015, is now on the Scientific Advisory Board of the Gates Foundation.

    Bell has no doubt that these appointments were strategic to “game the system” saying, “If I worked at the Gates Foundation, I would certainly hire somebody like Murray Lumpkin.”

    The only way to fix the revolving door problem Bell says, is to have a ‘non-compete clause’ in their contracts.

    “It might be that FDA employees cannot work for the people they’ve regulated for at least 10 years. There are places that have those rules – private companies have agreements that you can’t work for a rival,” said Bell.

    The FDA dismissed questions about the potential for conflicts of interest, or the lack of transparency over its communications with the Gates Foundation. In a statement, the FDA said:

    FDA regulatory decision making is science-based. Former FDA officials do not impact regulatory decisions. FDA only collaborates with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation under the MOU as described.

    Gates has billions at stake

    Gates boasted about receiving a 20-to-1 return on his $10 billion investment into the “financing and delivery” of medicines and vaccines.

    “It’s the best investment I’ve ever made,” he wrote in the Wall Street Journal.

    “Decades ago, these investments weren’t sure bets, but today, they almost always pay off in a big way.”

    In Sept 2019, just prior to the pandemic, SEC filings showed the foundation purchased over 1 million shares in BioNTech (Pfizer’s partner) for $18.10/share. By Nov 2021, the foundation dumped most of the stock for an average of $300/share.

    Investigative journalist Jordan Schachtel reported the foundation pocketed approximately $260 million in profit – more than 15 times its original investment – most of it untaxed because it was invested through the foundation.

    In his recent book, How to Prevent the Next Pandemic, Gates warns that future pandemics are the biggest threat to humankind and that survival depends on global pandemic preparedness strategies, firmly positioning himself at the centre of shaping the agenda.

    In October 2019, the Gates Foundation and the World Economic Forum hosted Event 201, which gathered government agencies, social media companies, and national security organisations to war game a “fictional” global pandemic.

    Oct 2019, Gates and WEF fund Event 201 to simulate a global pandemic response

    The key recommendations from the event were that such a crisis would require the deployment of new vaccines, surveillance, and control of information and human behaviours, by orchestrating the cooperation and coordination of key industries, national governments, and international institutions.

    Several weeks later when the covid-19 pandemic emerged, many aspects of this ‘hypothetical scenario’ became a chilling reality.

    The Gates Foundation, which holds shares in a range of drug companies including Merck, Pfizer, and Johnson & Johnson, is now credited with wielding significant influence over the direction of the global response to the pandemic, saying its goal is to “vaccinate the entire world” with a covid-19 vaccine.

    Global dominance

    The Gates Foundation has poured millions into funding NGOs, media, and international agencies, earning Gates significant political clout.

    Financial contributions to the media have garnered Gates favourable news coverage, boasting on the foundation’s website it committed almost $3.5 million to the Guardian in 2020 – 2023.

    The UK medicines regulator – the MHRA – disclosed it took approximately $3 million in funding from the Gates Foundation in 2022, which would span across several financial years.

    Presidential candidate Robert F Kennedy, Jr labelled Gates “the most powerful man in public health” because he managed to steer the WHO’s pandemic strategy to focus primarily on vaccination.

    Kennedy said in an interview that the WHO “begs and rolls over” for Gates’ funding, which now makes up over 88 percent of the total amount of the WHO’s donations by philanthropic foundations.

    “I think [Gates] believes that he is somehow ordained divinely to bring salvation to the world through technology,” said Kenney.

    “He believes the only path to good health is inside a syringe.”

    The Gates Foundation’s CEO Mark Suzman responded to concerns that the foundation has “disproportionate sway in setting national and global agendas, without any formal accountability to voters or international bodies.”

    “It’s true that between our dollars, voice, and convening power, we have access and influence that many others do not,” admitted Suzman in his 2023 annual letter . 

    “But make no mistake – where there’s a solution that can improve livelihoods and save lives, we’ll advocate persistently for it. We won’t stop using our influence, along with our monetary commitments, to find solutions,” he wrote.

    Republished from the author’s Substack

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/20/2023 – 19:15

  • "The Whole George Floyd Story Was A Lie": Tucker Carlson
    “The Whole George Floyd Story Was A Lie”: Tucker Carlson

    Tucker Carlson just challenged one of the left’s most sacred of cows – George Floyd, an ex-con who died with an elephant-dose of fentanyl in his system and a history of health issues, while in custody of Minneapolis police on May 25, 2020.

    According to Carlson, we need to revisit certain popular narratives, including the circumstances surrounding Floyd’s death – and in particular, inconsistencies between public perception – that Floyd died under the knee of former officer Derek Chauvin, who’s currently serving more than 40 years in state and federal sentences.

    “Did, for example, a racist white cop actually murder a man called George Floyd, a civil rights leader in Minneapolis on Memorial Day of 2020? Now we’ve been told that that happened, told it relentlessly for more than three years,” Carlson says, adding “But the question is, did he [Derek Chauvin] actually murder George Floyd? And the answer is, well, no, he didn’t murder George Floyd, and we’re not guessing about that; we know it conclusively thanks to a new court case now underway in Hennepin County, Minnesota.“

    The lawsuit, incidental to Floyd and Chauvin, unveiled sworn deposition excerpts from a conversation with County Medical Examiner Andrew Baker, indicating that Floyd’s passing was not due to asphyxiation or strangulation. Instead, factors including drug use and a fatal concentration of fentanyl were significant contributors, reframing his demise from the widely publicized ‘murder’ to an inadvertent overdose.

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    “In other words, George Floyd, according to the official autopsy, was not murdered. He died instead of what we used to call natural causes, which, in his case, would include decades of drug use, as well as the fatal concentration of fentanyl that was in his system on his final day,” Carlson continued – laying out how the initial George Floyd storyline was endorsed and amplified by mainstream media, and ignited nationwide protests, intensive racial discourse, and movements like Black Lives Matter. 

    These changes encompassed police defunding efforts, corporate hiring practices, and the institutionalization of new cultural observances like Juneteenth.

    Carlson interviewed Vince Everett Ellison, author of “Crime Inc.” – who discussed the possibility of orchestrated degradation and victimization within the Black community by political entities, particularly the Democratic party.

    Ellison suggests that the glorification of figures like George Floyd represents an insidious strategy to perpetuate a certain stereotype of blacks who are reliant on the system, thereby solidifying a voting base and maintaining a form of socio-political control.

    Drawing parallels between movements like BLM and historical or international groups used for political leverage, Ellison’s commentary insinuates that these organizations could be modern iterations of ‘domestic militias’ utilized by the Democrats for social manipulation and power consolidation. The unsettling comparison of BLM to groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, or the historical utilization of the Ku Klux Klan, paints a grim picture of political machinations where civil unrest is a tool rather than a byproduct.

    “The Democratic party uses BLM and Antifa as theirs, throwing the rock and hiding the hand. Of course, they’re going to do it; they’ve always done it, even at the beginning, they used the Ku Klux Klan,” he said.

    Watch:

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    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/20/2023 – 18:50

  • Georgia Man Issued $1.4 Million Super Speeder Ticket For Doing 90 In A 55
    Georgia Man Issued $1.4 Million Super Speeder Ticket For Doing 90 In A 55

    Inflation really has gotten out of control.

    We’re sure those were the thoughts of the Georgia man who received a $1.4 million speeding ticket last month. Connor Cato was on his way home on September 2 when he was pulled over for doing 90 in a 55 mile per hour zone. 

    Georgia State Patrol then tore him off a ticket with a $1.4 million dollar fine, according to WASV. 

    “‘$1.4 million,’ the lady told me on the phone. I said, ‘This might be a typo’ and she said, ‘No sir, you either pay the amount on the ticket or you come to court on Dec. 21 at 1:30 p.m,’” Cato told his local NBC affiliate. 

    Criminal defense attorney Sneh Patel commented: “I mean I can’t imagine someone would have to pay $1.4 million for not showing up for a speeding ticket.”

    He added: “At first when I was asked about this, I thought it was a clerical error. But then you told me you followed up and apparently it’s not a clerical error. But again, I have never seen something like this, ever.” 

    Patel told the NBC affiliate that misdemeanor charges in Georgia can only go up to $1,000: “It’s a misdemeanor of high and aggravated nature, it will be $ 5,000. Now, the bond amount should be relevant to that so for misdemeanor, you wouldn’t see bond amounts over $5,000 maybe $10,000 just to ensure if it’s a crime that involves violence or if you’re anticipating they will commit more crimes, it would set a higher amount or if you think they won’t show for court, you set a higher amount.”

    He added: “But not $1.4 million — that’s something that goes into cases that are drug trafficking, murders or aggravated assaults, something of that nature.”

    The city of Savannah then explained to NBC that, like all good efficient government work, the “system” uses $999,999.99 as a “placeholder” on tickets until a judge has a chance to set the fine at a hearing, as is done with super speeder tickets. 

    “The balance reflected in the e-citation is a placeholder. Super speeders are required to go to court. The system automatically puts in $999,999.99 as the base amount plus other costs since the only way to resolve the ticket is to appear in court,” Savannah told NBC. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/20/2023 – 18:40

  • "Children Are Not Social Experiments": Oklahoma Ban On Sex Changes For Minors Upheld By Federal District Court
    “Children Are Not Social Experiments”: Oklahoma Ban On Sex Changes For Minors Upheld By Federal District Court

    Authored by Steven Kovac via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    U.S. District Court Judge John F. Heil has ruled that an Oklahoma state law banning sex-change procedures on children was constitutional and therefore could be enforced.

    Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt, a Republican, speaks during a roundtable at the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, on June 18, 2020. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

    The ruling on Oct. 5, 2023, came as a result of a motion for injunctive relief to restrain the state from implementing the law.

    Five young people identifying as transgender and in some degree of transition, their parents or legal guardians, and a health care provider are the plaintiffs in the case.

    The defendant is Oklahoma Attorney General Gentner Drummond, a Republican.

    In an email to The Epoch Times, Mr. Gentner’s press secretary, Leslie Berger, stated: “The Attorney General’s Office continues to fulfill its duty to defend Senate Bill 613, and has won a ruling that results in full enforcement of that law.”

    The lawsuit was filed on May 2, 2023, the day after the Republican-controlled Oklahoma State Legislature resoundingly passed Senate Bill 613 enacting the ban.

    Governor Kevin Stitt, a Republican, signed the bill into law just hours after it passed. Then, the state agreed to hold off on implementation until the court ruled on the motion.

    The court decided that a child’s parents do not have the right to obtain medical services to change the sex of their minor son or daughter, as the plaintiffs contended.

    However, in the ruling, there is a recognition of the longstanding legal acknowledgment that Americans have the right to refuse medical treatment.

    The statute does not keep Oklahomans who are 18 years old and over from obtaining such procedures.

    Judge Heil, a Trump appointee, wrote that there is a distinction between adults who are ready to make life-altering decisions and “minors, who, at least in the eyes of the legislature, are not.

    “Indeed, courts have upheld restrictions designed to protect and prevent minors from engaging in behaviors that are far less risky than the procedures banned in SB 613,” he wrote.

    Judge Heil cited precedent that recognized a balance between “the truth that parents generally know what is best for their children,” and the reality that state governments have an abiding interest in protecting public health, preserving and promoting the welfare of children, and keeping the medical profession ethical and honest.

    “In the case before this court, plaintiffs have not demonstrated a fundamental right for parents to choose for their children to use puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and surgeries for the purpose of effectuating a gender transition,” wrote the judge.

    He quoted from a supporting case, which reads in part: “Absent a fundamental right, the state may regulate an interest pursuant to a validly enacted state law or regulation rationally related to a legitimate state interest.”

    A Sincere Disagreement

    The ruling acknowledged that some people believe that obtaining a sex change operation is a demonstration of compassion for a child, while other people believe that saving a minor child from undergoing a sex change procedure is an act of compassion.

    Judge Heil wrote that, because the entire concept is relatively new to society, and that definitive medical evidence is still being acquired, it would not be wise for the judiciary to enjoin the democratically elected legislature from enforcing a duly passed law addressing the subject “without a clear warrant in the Constitution.”

    The ruling also stated that the plaintiffs failed to meet the necessary standards to prove any discrimination on account of sex and could prove no 14th Amendment due process violations.

    “It is well to remember that the most deeply rooted tradition in this country is that we look to democracy to answer pioneering public policy questions, meaning that federal courts must resist the temptation to invoke unenumerated guarantees to ‘substitute’ their views for those of legislatures,” reads one of the supporting precedents cited by Judge Heil.

    Under the new law, a health care provider “shall not knowingly provide gender transition procedures to any child,” under possible penalty of license revocation and felony prosecution.

    According to the statute, gender transition procedures are medical or surgical services performed for the purpose of “attempting to affirm the minor’s perception of his or her gender or biological sex, if that perception is inconsistent with the minor’s biological sex.”

    The outlawed gender transition procedures include surgeries that alter or remove physical or anatomical characteristics or features that are typical for the individual’s biological sex, as well as the prescribing of puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, “or other drugs to suppress or delay normal puberty or to promote the development of feminizing or masculinizing features consistent with the opposite biological sex.”

    Exceptions to the ban allow a minor currently taking cross-sex hormones to be gradually weaned off the drugs.

    It also exempts children in need of treatment for the onset of puberty before the rest of the body is ready, along with those suffering from other physical problems related to genitalia.

    According to a study by Liberty Counsel, a national, non-profit, religious liberty law firm that advocates for Christian values, 22 states have passed legislation protecting children from sex change practices.

    In a recent press release, Liberty Counsel founder and chairman Mat Staver said of the Oklahoma decision: “The District Court has justly decided that Oklahoma is free to protect children from these harmful procedures that have devastated many young lives.

    “Children are not social experiments and state legislatures have considerable discretion to protect them.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/20/2023 – 18:25

  • Wealthy House Dem Signals He'll Challenge Biden For 2024 Nomination
    Wealthy House Dem Signals He’ll Challenge Biden For 2024 Nomination

    While the hour is getting late for would-be pursuers of the presidency in 2024, a moderate Democratic House representative is signaling he’s about to announce a challenge to President Biden for the party nomination. 

    First elected to Congress in 2018, 54-year-old Rep. Dean Phillips represents Minnesota’s third district, which primarily comprises the western suburbs of Minneapolis, along with some rural areas. For a Democratic Party obsessed with identity politics, Phillips would be the first Jewish US president.  

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    Phillips is quietly signaling to House peers that he’ll launch a campaign shortly, Politico reports. He’s previously pointed to Biden’s age as a liability and said “the country is begging for alternatives.” In an August appearance on Meet the Press, Phillips called on Biden to “pass the torch…I believe a majority wants to move on…people want to turn the page.” 

    Don’t expect Phillips to draw any sharp policy contrasts with Biden. A January analysis by FiveThirtyEight found that Phillips voted in accordance with Biden’s position 100% of the time. 

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    He’ll need a big war chest to take on an incumbent president and a Democratic Party that’s rigged the nominating process to an extent it prompted Robert F. Kennedy, Jr to abandon it in favor of an independent run. Politico notes that Biden already has $91 million in cash.

    Then again, Phillips has the potential to self-fund a campaign, at least to some extent. An heir to Minnesota’s Phillips Distilling Company and co-founder of Talenti Gelato, he’s one of the richest members of Congress. In 2019, Fortune estimated his net worth at $77 million.  

    Over the summer, Phillips held meetings with Democratic donors. Earlier this month, Phillips called New Hampshire Democratic Party Chairman Ray Buckley. “I called Chairman Buckley…to introduce myself as I contemplate entering the Democratic primary,” Phillips told Politico. 

    New Hampshire presents an unusual momentum opportunity for any challenger to Biden. The Democratic Party stripped the Granite State of its first-in-the-nation primary slot and gave it to South Carolina, the state where Biden’s fortunes turned in the 2020 race. However, New Hampshire plans to go rogue, and hold an unsanctioned primary on Jan. 23, a few weeks before South Carolina’s Feb 3 contest. As a result of the intrigue, Biden’s name probably won’t be on the ballot.  

    Phillips is already too late to appear on the Nevada ballot, and he only has until Nov. 10 to make South Carolina’s cut-off. 

    Given the formidable challenge of taking on the Democratic Party machine, perhaps a Phillips campaign isn’t a drive to defeat Joe Biden but rather a call option on a scenario in which the clearly-declining Biden is finally deemed physically and/or mentally capable of running for re-election. That already appears to be the case, but at some point it may become so painfully evident that Biden’s family and party puppetmasters wake up to that reality.   

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    Meanwhile, Phillips’ candor about Biden’s unattractiveness as a candidate seems to have had its own consequences for Phillips: He’s facing a primary challenge of his own, as Ron Harris, an executive member of the Democratic National Committee, has announced he’s seeking to wrest Phillips’ House seat away from him.   

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/20/2023 – 18:00

  • Russia Will "Pay The Price" For Supporting Gaza: Israeli Official
    Russia Will “Pay The Price” For Supporting Gaza: Israeli Official

    The Cradle,

    During a live interview on Russia’s state-run broadcaster RT, Israeli lawmaker Amir Weitmann threatened to make Moscow “pay the price” for allegedly supporting the Palestinian resistance in Gaza.

    “We’re going to finish this war. We’re going to win because we’re stronger. After this, Russia will pay the price. Believe me, Russia will pay the price,” Weitmann, the head of the libertarian caucus in Israel’s ruling Likud Party, told the RT news anchor.

    Via FP

    “Russia is supporting the enemies of Israel, Russia is supporting Nazi people who want to commit genocide on us, and Russia will pay the price […]. We are going to finish with these Nazis, we’re going to win this war […] we’re not forgetting what you are doing […] we will come, we will make sure that Ukraine wins, we will make sure that you pay the price for what you have done,” the close ally of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continued.

    Since the start of the Gaza-Israel war, the Russian government has continuously called for a peaceful resolution. This week, the nation drafted a UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire. However, Israel’s western allies struck it down.

    As the Israeli bombing campaign against millions of Palestinian civilians escalates, Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that the siege of Gaza is reminiscent of the Leningrad siege by Nazi Germany.

    Weitmann’s unhinged accusations follow in the footsteps of other wild claims made by current and former Israeli officials. When asked last week during a TV interview about the suffering faced by Palestinians in Gaza, former prime minister Naftali Bennett lashed out at the interviewer and repeated the claim that Palestinian fighters are “Nazis.”

    “Are you seriously going to keep asking me about Palestinian civilians? What is wrong with you? Have you not seen what’s happened? We’re fighting Nazis,” the former premier shouted. “Shame on you,” Bennett continued, interrupting and accusing the anchor of “spinning a narrative” in favor of the Palestinians.

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    A  few days after Bennett’s tirade, Israeli President Isaac Herzog claimed during a news conference that “there are no innocent civilians in Gaza.”

    “It is an entire nation out there that is responsible […] It is not true this rhetoric about civilians not being aware, not involved. It’s absolutely not true. They could have risen up. They could have fought against that evil regime which took over Gaza in a coup d’etat,” Herzog claimed about the 2.3 million Palestinians – half of whom are children – who live under a brutal military blockade and are the constant targets of Israeli air raids.

    While international law is clear that belligerents who fail to distinguish between combatants and civilians are guilty of war crimes, Israeli officials have been working overtime to spin the narrative that the entire population of Gaza are “terrorists” or “Nazis.”

    Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant last week went even further, saying Gazans are “human animals” who must be eradicated, while National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir said that Gaza doesn’t need humanitarian aid, only “tons of bombs.” Ben Gvir’s comments came a few hours after widespread headlines were issued that said an Israeli jet bombed the Baptist Hospital in Gaza City, killing hundreds of wounded civilians, most of them women and children.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/20/2023 – 17:40

  • Anheuser-Busch Resorts To 'Bribing' Distributors In Effort To Keep Bud-Light On Shelves
    Anheuser-Busch Resorts To ‘Bribing’ Distributors In Effort To Keep Bud-Light On Shelves

    Anheuser-Busch’s emergency relief program for beer distributors has been extended by the brewer to keep Bud Light on store shelves after its disastrous ‘woke’ advertising with trans-TikTok star Dylan Mulvaney earlier this year. The move certainly looks like a ‘bribe.’ 

    The New York Post revealed while quoting a report from Beer Marketer’s Insights that Anheuser-Busch has offered as much as $150 million in relief to distributors since Mulvaney’s Bud Light TikTok video on April 1 sparked nationwide boycotts. 

    Some of the financial relief distributors have received are reimbursements for freight and fuel surcharges, as well as an additional week to pay bills to the brewer. 

    “I imagine for those that are having some cash flow concerns, this would help somewhat,” one distributor told The Post.

    The report mentioned that the financial aid package to distributors that started in June will be expanded through next spring. That includes sales incentive payments. 

    NYPost explained that the “market share recovery incentives” come as beer and liquor stores prepare to “revamp their shelf space in the spring when they look at the last 12 months of sales and determine which products are hot and deserve more space – and which will lose space.” 

    Last month, former AB executive Anson Frericks warned that shelf space is “the single largest determinant of sales in a store,” and said there will be a “dramatic shift” for Bud Light following the nationwide boycott. 

    Dave Williams, vice president of analytics and insights at Bump Williams Consulting, said retailers closely watch sales figures to determine what brands are given the best shelf space. 

    “There’s explosive growth on one side and sharp decline on the other,” Williams said, adding, “This does have that ripple effect where if Bud Light loses space on the shelf, that could make it a longer-term endeavor to claw back to where they were if they’re ever able to do that in the first place.”

    Several months ago, Deutsche Bank analyst Mitch Collett said Bud Light was expected to lose about 25% of its business. 

    The latest data from Citi Bank shows AB’s hemorrhaging has continued in the last four weeks (pro subs can find the report in the usual place):

    ABInBev’s beer volumes fell 15.5% in the latest 4 weeks, notably worse than the market at -4.3% as the fall-out from the Bud Light social media campaign persists. Beer price/mix grew 3.0% to leave total dollar sales down 13.0%, deceleration vs last month’s -10.9%. Total value share for ABInBev fell – 489bps and beer value share decreased 534bps. We estimate Bud Light accounts for a little over 30% of the group’s US revenues (c.8% of group). Bud Light volumes fell 30.2% and Budweiser volumes fell 25.6%, compared to -29.9% and -25.3% respectively in the previous 4-week period

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    Meanwhile, Mexican lager Modelo Especial dethroned Bud Light as the number-one-selling beer in America, while some beer drinkers have gravitated to brewers operating in the parallel economy, such as “Conservative Dad’s Ultra Right 100% Woke-Free American beer.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/20/2023 – 17:20

  • Money-Market Fund Assets Crash 'Most Since Lehman' As Bank Deposits Rose Last Week
    Money-Market Fund Assets Crash ‘Most Since Lehman’ As Bank Deposits Rose Last Week

    Money-market funds saw the largest weekly outflow since Lehman (Q3 2008), plunging $99BN…

    Source: Bloomberg

    The outflows were all from institutional funds (retail funds saw another inflow)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Presumably this was driven by tax-extension deadline payments – or else something serious is happening.

    Total bank deposits – on a seasonally-adjusted basis – dropped for the second week in a row (-$$8.7BN)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Non-seasonally-adjusted, total deposits saw inflows for the 3rd week in a row (+$20.6BN)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Is this the start of a major reversal… or just the one-off tax flows?

    Source: Bloomberg

    Domestically, excluding foreign banks, there were deposit inflows on both an SA and NSA basis…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Which has narrowed the delta between SA and NSA deposit outflows since SVB to just $38BN (the outflows are still over $200BN total)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    On the other side of the ledger, bans increased their lending volumes modestly last week – after 2 weeks of shrinkage – op around $9BN…

    Source: Bloomberg

    The Fed’s balance sheet shrank by around $19BN last week, but usage of its emergency funding facility for banks remained at record highs around $109BN…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Bank reserves at The Fed and US equity market appear to be converging back together…

    Source: Bloomberg

    The key warning sign continues to trend lower (Small Banks’ reserve constraint), supported above the critical level by The Fed’s emergency funds (for now).

    Source: Bloomberg

    Notably above, Large bank cash is surging (as those money-market fund outflows move?) – is it time to sacrifice another small bank for the greater good?

    Source: Bloomberg

    Finally, if you’re wondering why regional banks were clubbed like a baby seal this week… wonder no more…

    Source: Bloomberg

    They have a $109BN (at least) hole in their balance sheets that needs to be filled by March-ish…

    …(and with rates going higher, good luck!)

    Tl;dr:…

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    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/20/2023 – 17:00

  • House Investigators Reveal $200,000 "Direct Payment To Joe Biden"
    House Investigators Reveal $200,000 “Direct Payment To Joe Biden”

    The House Oversight Committee on Friday revealed a direct payment to President Joe Biden which appears to have been laundered through his brother James.

    As the oversight Committee notes in a release;

    In 2018, James Biden received $600,000 in loans from, Americore—a financially distressed and failing rural hospital operator. According to bankruptcy court documents, James Biden received these loans “based upon representations that his last name, ‘Biden,’ could ‘open doors’ and that he could obtain a large investment from the Middle East based on his political connections.”

    On March 1, 2018, Americore wired a $200,000 loan into James and Sara Biden’s personal bank account – not their business bank account. On the same day, James Biden wrote a $200,000 check from this same personal bank account to Joe Biden. 

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    Chairman James Comer (R-KY) said in a statement (emphasis ours);

    This summer, Joe Biden said: “Where’s the money?”

    Well, we found some.

    We’re still digging into evidence subpoenaed from bank accounts belonging to Hunter Biden, the son of President Joe Biden, and James and Sara Biden – the brother and sister-in-law of the President.

    A document that we’re releasing today raises new questions about how President Biden personally benefited from his family’s shady influence peddling of his name and their access to him.

    Bank records obtained by the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability have revealed a $200,000 direct payment from James and Sara Biden to Joe Biden in the form of a personal check.

    Here is some important context about this check we’ve obtained in our investigation:

    In 2018, James Biden received $600,000 in loans from, Americore—a financially distressed and failing rural hospital operator.

    According to bankruptcy court documents, James Biden received these loans “based upon representations that his last name, ‘Biden,’ could ‘open doors’ and that he could obtain a large investment from the Middle East based on his political connections.”

    On March 1, 2018, Americore wired a $200,000 loan into James and Sara Biden’s personal bank account – not their business bank account. 

    And then on the very same day, James Biden wrote a $200,000 check from this same personal bank account to Joe Biden. 

    James Biden wrote this check to Joe Biden as a “loan repayment.”  Americore—a distressed company—loaned money to James Biden who then sent it to Joe Biden.

    Even if this was a personal loan repayment, it’s still troubling that Joe Biden’s ability to be paid back by his brother depended on the success of his family’s shady financial dealings.

    Some immediate questions President Biden must answer for the American people:

    Does he have documents proving he lent such a large sum of money to his brother and what were the terms of such financial arrangement?

    Did he have similar financial arrangements with other family members that led them to make similar large payments to him?

    Did he know that the same day James Biden wrote him a check for $200,000, James Biden had just received a loan for the exact same amount from business dealings with a company that was in financial distress and failing?

    The House Oversight Committee will soon announce our next investigative actions and continue to follow the money.

    The bank records don’t end here.There is more to come.

    Watch:

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    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/20/2023 – 16:40

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Oct 20

Today’s News 20th October 2023

  • Doug Casey On Governments Scapegoating Businesses For Inflation
    Doug Casey On Governments Scapegoating Businesses For Inflation

    Via the International Man,

    International Man: Thanks to rampant currency debasement, the price of everything has gone up recently.

    As the pain from inflation becomes a normal part of life in places like the US and Canada, there are growing calls for politicians to “do something.”

    Recently, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau threatened to tax grocery stores if they don’t lower their prices, accusing them of causing inflation and profiting from higher prices.

    What’s your take on this?

    Doug Casey: Trudeau epitomizes, in many ways, all that’s wrong with the kind of people who go into politics. Things are as expensive as they are partly because taxes take 20% or 30% of everybody’s income when they earn it. Then, when they spend it, they pay another 10%, 20%, or even 30% in sales taxes and VATs. Add on the burden of regulations, which add to costs while decreasing the amount of production.

    Taxes and regulations are disastrous. But the big thing is currency debasement. Governments are printing up money by the bushel because they believe in Modern Monetary Theory—paying for what they want by simply printing money.

    People like Trudeau are the reason why food prices, and all kinds of prices, are as high as they are.

    Having caused a problem, they present themselves as a solution to the problem. Their solutions are typically counterproductive—stupid, actually. Taxing grocery stores adds to their costs. If they’re to stay in business, those taxes must be passed on to the consumer.

    Trudeau is a criminal personality who should be punished for the evil he’s doing. On the other hand, he was popularly elected, largely because he has name recognition from his nominal father and good looks from Fidel Castro, who’s probably his actual sire. In any event, he’s apparently what the majority of Canadians must prefer…

    International Man: Many Third World countries have scapegoated business owners for rising prices.

    The next step is for them to pass laws regulating how businesses can price their products and services.

    Where does this all lead?

    Doug Casey: As we’ve just discussed regarding Trudeau, government sticks its nose absolutely everywhere. That’s because the type of people who go into government love power, as well as making themselves famous and wealthy.

    Almost all economic problems originate with government intervention. The solution isn’t more laws regulating how businesses can act and price their products but less laws. And by less, I mean none at all.

    Government might subsidize milk, perhaps so it’s an “affordable” dollar a gallon. That’s a great idea. You can have all you want for a dollar—but there won’t be any. It’s an insoluble problem until people realize that the cause of the problem is the State itself—fat chance. I’m not optimistic.

    International Man: We’ve recently seen prominent politicians and the media in the US blame rising prices on businesses.

    They also blame supply chain problems, Vladimir Putin, and so-called climate change… anything but the Federal Reserve and its currency debasement as the source of inflation.

    Why do the media and government mislead and gaslight people about inflation?

    Doug Casey: You and I realize that the only reason that we’re not all naked, grubbing for roots and berries, is because business creates wealth. Businessmen are directly responsible for our high standard of living. Business is humanity’s friend, not the enemy that government makes it out to be.

    But then again, business is now so hooked up and intertwined with government that you can no longer tell the two of them apart. This is the problem with Ayn Rand’s writings. She saw businessmen as heroes for creating wealth. But in the real world, businessmen don’t know anything about either economics or philosophy. Sad to say, they’re not heroes. Few care about anything but becoming personally wealthy.

    It’s easier for them to become wealthy by getting in bed with the State and having it pass laws to make their lives easier at the expense of the public. Unlike Rand’s ideal heroes, business never defends itself on a moral basis. In sordid reality, they’re archetypal whipped dogs who comply with everything the government dictates as long as they’re tossed fat bones.

    The government is able to mislead and gaslight the public because people naturally believe authority, whether it’s their parents, their teachers, their preachers, or whoever. And the government, through the media, is the ultimate authority. When the government alleges things, people who don’t think or who aren’t independent thinkers believe them. When the bad guys have authority, they naturally make themselves out as being good guys.

    The problem is that people who want to govern are almost always bad guys.

    International Man: In a separate but related development, US cities are descending into crime-ridden hellholes. Businesses, including grocery stores, are fleeing in droves.

    In Chicago, the mayor has said the city will experiment with creating centrally-controlled, state-run grocery stores to service areas where private grocers have left.

    The mayor has said:

    “All Chicagoans deserve to live near convenient, affordable, healthy grocery options. We know access to grocery stores is already a challenge for many residents, especially on the South and West sides.”

    His team calls it “re-imagining the role government can play in our lives by exploring a public option for grocery stores.”

    What do you make of this?

    Doug Casey: It’s possible, although it’s a highly competitive space, that the mayor of Chicago is the worst mayor in the country. Even worse than his predecessor, the degraded Laurie Lightfoot. Incidentally, Chicagoans don’t preternaturally deserve those things he mentions. The fact the idiots elected this fool, this criminal, means they’re just getting what they deserve.

    The government of Chicago has provided nothing but new highs in murders, robberies, taxation, and regulation. They’ve put hundreds of thousands of citizens in vertical ghettos that they’ll almost certainly never be able to get out of.

    If they take it to the next level, by having government grocery stores, they’ll have to be renamed “food dispensaries,” where the food will either be stolen, or it’ll be locked up behind plexiglass with armed guards.

    The way central cities are devolving, there will be no business anywhere. With government employees dispensing food, going shopping will be like visiting a DMV.

    International Man: Where do you think this is all headed if current trends continue? What advice do you have for people on preparing for what is coming?

    Doug Casey: Trends in motion tend to stay in motion until they reach a crisis. At which point, things either get much worse or turn around and get better, simply because they’re unsustainable. The country is now like a poker player “on tilt”—nothing changes until he goes bust. And that’s always ugly.

    There’s not much any of us can do to change the trend in motion, which has been heading down for many years and is now accelerating downward.

    All you can do—and what you should do—is take care of yourself, your family, and your friends. As far as the food situation is concerned, you should take a note from the Mormons, which is to say, set aside six months’ worth of food.

    If you live where it’s possible, learn to grow a garden or perhaps raise a few chickens. Be as self-sufficient as possible so that you don’t have to rely on your local government food dispensary when things get really bad.

    *  *  *

    Editor’s Note: It’s clear the Fed’s money printing is about to go into overdrive. The next round of money printing is likely to bring the situation to a breaking point.

    That means we’re on the cusp of a global economic crisis that could eclipse anything we’ve seen before. Most people won’t be prepared for what’s coming…

    That’s precisely why bestselling author and legendary speculator Doug Casey and his team just released this urgent PDF report on how to survive and thrive in this chaotic environment. Click here to download it now.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/19/2023 – 19:15

  • Albert Edwards Explains Why China's "Strong" GDP Data Was A Bald-Faced Lie
    Albert Edwards Explains Why China’s “Strong” GDP Data Was A Bald-Faced Lie

    Two days ago, markets exhaled a collective breath of relief when China published its monthly data dump which disclosed that in addition to beating (almost) across the board for retail sales, industrial output, and fixed investment, the country’s GDP came well above expectations of 4.50%, printing at a 4.90% increase YoY.

    This was good news for a world starved for any positive developments out of China, and Chinese assets promptly bounced (if only to sink shortly after as attention return to China’s rapidly disintegrating property sector). There is just one problem: as with every economic data coming out of China (and lately the US, as well), this was a lie.

    While it is true that reported real GDP was 4.9%, what SocGen’s Albert Edwards points out in his latest Global Strategy Weekly note is that this was only possible because the Chinese economy remained in deflation in Q3, hardly an indication of economic prosperity.

    As Edwards explains, the 4.9% upside surprise on real GDP was “only achieved because of the surprisingly sharp 1.4% fall in the GDP deflator – that was then added to weak 3.5% nominal GDP growth.”

    This is a problem because as the SocGen strategist observes next, “nominal GDP growth in China at 3.5% (red line in chart below) is far lower than the pre-Covid run rate compared to real GDP.” And since “it is the nominal pulse that is accurately measured” what matters is the nominal print. Then after statisticians make some informed guesses as to what prices are doing, ‘real’ constant price GDP pops up in the spreadsheet.

    Hence for China to meet its 5% ‘real’ GDP target, Edwards sarcastically explains, “merely requires the statisticians to ‘assume’ prices are falling sharply. Hey, maybe there isn’t a Chinese deflation problem after all? But if so, that means real GDP growth is much weaker than is being officially reported.“

    Edwards skepticism is corroborated by the far more accurate, PMI data, which signals “worryingly low employment in the non-manufacturing sector with no lockdowns to blame.”

    No wonder then that China 10y bond yields remain near an all time low level of 2.7%, in stark contrast to the US’s 4.99%.

    But if the Chniese data is again much weaker than indicated, what does that mean about Beijing’s attempts to kickstart the economy and stimulate it out of its Japanification phase? Well, as Edwards explains, “the Chinese authorities have been in easing mode recently, but the degree of easing can be described as support for the economy rather than stimulus” which is what one would expect from a country that has a record 300%+ debt/GDP: this is where the tire meets the road for all those idiot MMT fans whose entire monetary religion goes up in a small puff of smoke once debt becomes the gating factor as it has in China.

    That is why, according to Albert, you see industrial metals limping along (more zombie analogies?) rather than sprinting ahead.

    Looking ahead, fake data aside, SocGen’s China economists expect one more cut in rates this year, but another problem emerges: China’s recent rate cuts – in stark contrast to the US – are putting the renminbi under heavy downward pressure (left chart below). Nevertheless, the renminbi basket has been rebounding recently and stands close to a Rmb6.4/$ equivalent (see right hand chart).

    Which brings us to Edwards’ conclusion which touches on a topic we recently mentioned on twitter, namely that the most important currency pair does not even have the dollar in it, but rather is the interplay between two export powerhouses: China and Japan…

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    … or as Edwards puts it, “the gap between China’s exchange rate and the yen has become a chasm in recent years, despite Japan also pursuing easy money. China’s tight exchange rate policy is relatively deflationary. Maybe the falling deflator is right after all?”

    The SocGen bear’s parting words are spot on: this is a “situation that needs very close watching.”

    More in the full note available to pro subs in the usual place.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/19/2023 – 18:50

  • The Problem Boils Down To This
    The Problem Boils Down To This

    Authored by Eric Peters,

    Everyone has their take as regards the problems besetting us. Few seem to grasp there is fundamentally just one problem. It is the problem that animates the others, giving them the power to be problems.

    What is this one problem that leads to all the others?

    It is force – especially when its use (and threatened use, which has the same effect) is legalized.

    If force institutionalized were taken away, there would of course still be disagreements – as well as annoyances. But that is all there would be. Or at least, mostly. Violence – its use and its threatened use – will of course always be with us as there will always be people willing to resort to the use of force to get what they want. But they would be outliers – and occasional rather than ubiquitous threats.

    How often have you been mugged?

    Have you been able to go even one day without being forced to pay what are styled “taxes” – i.e., legalized mugging? You are forced to pay the “mugger” every single time you pay for anything. And when you get paid for the work you do, too.

    Because such mugging it is legal – and so ubiquitous. The mugger in the alley is a kind of freelancer; he enjoys no such advantage and suffers the disadvantage of it being legal to attempt to avoid his depredations and to defend oneself against them.

    If you don’t like someone, but he is legally powerless to force you to interact with him, then you are free to avoid him. And because you are able to avoid him, conflict is avoided.

    How do you feel about people you’re forced to deal with – because they have the power to force you to deal with them? For example, the proliferation of government employees whose employment centers on your having to not only deal with them politely but also pay for the privilege?

    Think of the government employee who comes onto your property uninvited to assess the value of your home – so that the government can force you to hand over money to pay for government “services” you don’t want or use, such as government schools. How do you feel about him? How about the government worker who puts his hands on your wife, your child – or your elderly parent – at the airport?

    The cop who simply takes – legally! – the envelope full of cash you were going to use to pay for the used car you were on your way to buy when you got “pulled over” for not wearing a seatbelt. He says it’s “suspicious” – and it’s up to you to prove (at your expense) that the money is “legitimate.”

    The mask-faced bureaucrat who forced you to close the doors to your business that no one was forced to walk through – leading to the bankrupting of your business?

    Do you not feel hatred for them?

    And how do these people feel about you? How does a person who has power over someone else, who can be made to obey, feel about having such power? What sort of person is attracted to that kind of power? How does a schoolyard bully feel about being able to make a smaller kid hand over his lunch money?

    Force empowers the sadist – who becomes an official when force is legalized.

    Take legalized force out of the equation and the sadist has no official power to torment anyone. He may succeed in finding some victims. But everyone is not his victim. And those who fall victim to him have the consolation of knowing they might be able to loosen their bonds when the sadist isn’t paying attention and lay hands on the bastard – which is considered a “crime” when done to an official sadist, such as the government worker with a uniform, a badge and a gun who orders you to get on the ground now! because you defied his order to “buckle up.”

    Most people are not violent and seek therefore to avoid violence. Down that road lies peaceful resolution and co-existence. Your neighbor does not like the color you decided to paint your house. He can ask you to paint it a different color. He can plant tree along his property line, so that he no longer sees what displeases him. And he is free to move. You may not like this neighbor but you are not likely to hate him because all he can do is ask you to paint your house another color, plant some trees along his side of the property line – or move. And because he has no power to force you to do anything, you are probably more likely to give some weight to his preferences and maybe come to an agreeable compromise.

    The absence of force encourages this just as charity is encouraged when people are not forced to “help.” They feel compassion for the truly needy. They do not resent them, at any rate – because why would they? They are objects of pity – as opposed to loci of legalized predation.

    Libertarians and anarchists are regularly derided for advocating that institutionalized force – which is a tautology for government – be removed from human interaction. The accusations leveled include that the result would be mayhem. It is a hyperbolic and absurd accusation and easily demonstrated by noting the fact that friends and families base their interactions on libertarian-anarchic concepts; no one is forced to be friends with anyone and our families are bound by affection (with the occasional sad exception) and in any case no one is forced to remain part of any family.

    Mayhem?

    How about the institutionalized mayhem of legalized violence as the basis for human interaction? Which engenders the greater fear in most people – the burglar who might break into their house one night? Or the IRS agent who might seize their house in broad daylight?

    Would you rather live with certain risks – as that you might one day fall victim to someone who acts to harm you? Or the certainty that you will be harmed, not just once but over and over again – and every day of your life, to very end of your life? And be legally powerless to raise a hand in you own defense?

    To ask these questions is to answer them.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/19/2023 – 18:25

  • "No Material Impact": Musk Slams Man's Prison Sentence Over 2016 Meme Vs. Hunter Laptop Propagandists
    “No Material Impact”: Musk Slams Man’s Prison Sentence Over 2016 Meme Vs. Hunter Laptop Propagandists

    On Wednesday, an Obama-appointed federal judge sentenced a man named Douglass Mackey to seven months in jail for posting a meme in 2016 that directed people to vote for then-candidate Hillary Clinton via text message.

    A picture of Douglass Mackey, also known online as influencer “Ricky Vaughn,” dated February 2023. (Courtesy of Douglass Mackey)

    In March, a Brooklyn jury found Mackey guilty on charges alleging that he conspired to deprive individuals of their right to vote when he posted this meme under the alias “@TheRickyVaughn,” which had more than 58,000 followers at the time.

    Mackey will miss the birth of his first child for the same exact thing this woman did…

    Mackey’s legal defense pleaded for the judge in the case not to send him to jail, claiming in a sentencing memorandum that he’s a new man, and that his days as an internet troll are over.

    “Three years before the government arrested Douglass Mackey for the charge in this case, he moved to Florida to check himself into an intensive inpatient course of psychotherapy followed by outpatient psychotherapy,” Mackey said last month, according to Headline USA. “The Douglass Mackey who stands before the Court for sentencing is not Ricky Vaughn of seven years ago, but a role model to friends he met in therapy, a brother in faith in his Church, and a devoted husband to his wife, who is expected to give birth to the couple’s first child in November.“

    While Mackey has appealed his conviction, his lawyer, Andrew Frisch, says that the case “presents an unusual array of compelling appellate issues. I am optimistic that the conviction will be vacated.”

    Reactions on the right to Mackey’s conviction were mostly outrage over Biden’s ‘weaponized’ DOJ going after another conservative. “X” owner Elon Musk said that what he did “had no material impact on the election,” in comparison to those behind the suppression of Hunter Biden’s laptop, which “*did* have a material impact on the election.”

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    Speaking of material impacts…

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    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/19/2023 – 18:00

  • What Some Call "Anti-Science" Is Just Anti-Authoritarianism
    What Some Call “Anti-Science” Is Just Anti-Authoritarianism

    Authored by Alex Washburne via The Brownstone Institute,

    Sometimes it feels as if we’re living in a dizzying house of narrative mirrors and anyone sincerely interested in walking the true path through the world risks being unable to see the true path as they get trapped in our horrific hall of insincere reflections.

    The truth of any given matter, the objective facts and consilient theories, seems to matter less than the ability of an idea or narrative to reflect back to people what they wish to see. Our marketplace of ideas incentivizes manufacturing narrative mirrors that provide epistemological narcissists an opportunity to view themselves in a favorable light and secure a foothold in media outlets that have devolved from curators of our frontal lobe to antagonists of our amygdala.

    Speaking of epistemological narcissists and narrative mirrors, let’s talk about Peter Hotez and his narrative of a growing “Anti-Science” movement.

    Peter Hotez self-identifies as a scientist and appears to spend most of his time running around predominately liberal media outlets, using his stature as “The Scientist” to misrepresent, demean, and cry “disinformation” on information, worldviews, and even scientific theories that differ from his own. Any scientist who disagrees with Dr. Hotez and his outrageous, inhuman, insensitive, and irrational proclamations is blocked and ridiculed. While truth may bounce off Hotez like bullets off of Thanos, it appears our disagreements have successfully penetrated the armor of Dr. Hotez’s ego and a new ego-defense is materializing. 

    Now, Dr. Hotez claims that there is “an Anti-Science movement,” a cultural and political boogeyman that is out to undermine science and target scientists. I have little doubt he would love to snap his fingers and make what he views as “Anti-Science” people, beliefs, and institutions disappear in an act of anti-heroic benevolence for the world.

    The whole notion of “Anti-Science,” however, is a narrative. It is not a physical object like “anti-matter” or “antigen” nor is it a process like “antibody maturation” nor an objective and diagnosable clinical condition like “antisocial personality disorder.” “Anti-Science” is nothing but an attempt to name a thing that Hotez sees, but he views our political world from a far-off silo and lives in a hall of mirrors of his own design. As a consequence of Hotez’ distance from the people and patterns he’s labeling “Anti-Science,” the thing he sees is not a thing that exists in our shared, objective universe.

    To understand what Hotez sees, why he sees it, and why it’s not a thing in our universe, we have to provide, to the best of our ability, a minimal and objective set of historical facts that can reproduce what he sees. I hypothesize one can synthesize Hotez’ toxic worldview by following the 7-step recipe below:

    1. History of Scientists-Being-Right: Have serious scientific issues over which there is a legitimate consensus, like climate change or evolution, become politically divisive flashpoints.
    2. Socially and Politically Siloed Scientists: Slowly, imperceptibly, increase the political biases of the composition of scientists while having scientists spend more and more time in their social circle.
    3. A Scientific Emergency: Introduce an emergency that requires scientific interpretations to decide effective public policy (COVID-19 pandemic), resulting in an unprecedented surge in the political power and influence of scientists.
    4. Scientists with State Power: Have some scientists in unelected positions of power (e.g. Fauci and Collins) use the power of the State to silence critics and preferentially amplify the theories, papers, and implied policies they prefer.
    5. Uncritical Media: Have media with a long mutualistic history of using scientists to certify narratives and manufacture consent in exchange for providing scientists expanded narrative reach, and, through a mix of market forces and established social norms, have these media “trust the experts” and give them relatively uncritical coverage. 
    6. History of Disinformation: Record a true history of disinformation, especially concerning scientific issues like oil and gas companies sowing doubt about climate change (while privately acknowledging it’s true).
    7. Diversity of Belief and Freedom of Speech: Have all of the above occur in a society that safeguards civil liberties, allowing people to speak up, criticize those in power, and advocate for their own position in public fora.

    If these seven criteria are met, I believe someone like Peter Hotez will be a nearly inevitable social consequence. The simple explanation is that the criteria above polarized scientists (1) without them knowing they are polarized (2), gave them an opportunity (3) to exercise somewhat unchecked State power (4), and gave them media power (5) to suppress dissent by calling it “disinformation” (6).

    The first six steps of this recipe create an authoritarian ethos in scientists – Trust the Science, Follow the Science – and compel them to act on these politically ethnocentric and authoritarian impulses with few checks and balances except for popular discontent. Inevitably, the siloed and politically biased composition of scientists will result in policies that sow massive discontent (lockdowns, mask mandates, vaccine mandates). When we add the 7th ingredient of the recipe, people exposed to an authoritarian bunch of scientists brushing aside their humanity, their political rights, and their distinct value systems will express their discontent. The people expressing discontent will correctly identify the scientists as the people and groups of scientists as the syndicate that corrupted the public policy process through unfair, undemocratic, and intolerant tactics, and the people will speak their minds at these scientists – like Hotez – in public fora.

    Scientific authoritarianism is not many Americans’ cup of tea.

    The Hotez’s will need to be fermented in this social and media concoction of authoritarianism within grasp hindered by legitimate public criticism for some time. Eventually, they will need a narrative to brush away that public resistance so they will create an ego-defensive narrative that positions them as heroes, Scientists as Saviors (scientific saviorism). Hotez and others have somewhat of a manic pixie dream scientist view of themselves – the scientists who are apolitical heroes of infinite cultural latitude exist only in their imaginations to serve their fantasies of grandiosity and benevolence. They sincerely believe that if science says X is effective at reducing one disease then all of society ought to Follow the Science to adopt X, mandate X, do whatever it takes to make X ubiquitous and thank scientists for X. Of course, the tricky thing about society is that it is comprised of humans, a vast anthropological mosaic of beliefs and value systems, and there are other beliefs and value systems that believe we ought to do Y.

    Science has become a central pillar of the Saviors’ self-identity and so they don’t distinguish between science (the objective and often messy process of fairly evaluating many competing ideas) and the authoritarian actions of scientists. As the Toxic Hotez nears completion from cooking in a vat of legitimate public criticism for their scientific ethnocentrism, they will conceive a global conspiracy targeting science and scientists, a monstrous “Anti-Science” that demands even more power and legal protection of scientists, even stronger measures to police disinformation. As they look at the restored image of Scientists as Saviors in this narrative mirror, they will descend even further into madness.

    Indeed, it is madness because what Hotez views as “Anti-Science” does not exist, it is not a good reflection of reality but rather a story told from pride and ego-defense. Hotez, a set of scientists closely connected with the heads of the NIH, NIAID, and other global health science funders (none of them democratically elected), and even the funders themselves ate the forbidden fruit of authoritarianism. Many before Hotez have tasted authoritarianism, and the results are predictable. The Scientists who grabbed the reigns of society during the pandemic and steered it with insensitive ambition are experiencing not a novel monstrosity but an age-old and dignified human response called “Anti-Authoritarianism.”

    Some – not all – scientists acted like authoritarians during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Some – not all – scientists rallied around models from the most powerful and well-funded scientific groups at the start of the pandemic, even if their models were clearly wrong. When some scientists like John Ioannidis spoke up about the shortcomings of models that were guiding policy, the politically siloed scientists reacted with vitriol and social power that could crush careers in scientific institutions. The informal social control of scientists suppressed diverse views and resulted in science not shared.

    So some – not all – scientists became very vocal in advocating for lockdowns despite the policy being inhumane and a clear violation of civil liberties, such as when fellow scientists Jay Bhattacharya, Martin Kulldorff, and Sunetra Gupta wrote the Great Barrington Declaration (GBD) arguing that lockdowns were likely to cause harm and that all-cause mortality and morbidity could be reduced by focusing our protection and helping those with high risk of severe outcomes receive the best preventative support and treatment we could muster. The GBD was an alternative policy proposal that was also grounded in science and it differed in its moral calculus and focus on all-cause mortality. The GBD was assisted by a group whose beliefs aligned with the policies and ideas therein – the American Institute for Economic Research. That group was said to be a libertarian think tank.

    There was just two problems with the Great Barrington Declaration: it was supposedly aligned with a group whose political preferences are anathema to many liberal scientists and it conflicted with the policies preferred by major science funders. A difference of political opinion also grounded in science and reason shouldn’t be that big of a deal, but for some reason it was. Major science funders, most of all the head of NIAID Dr. Anthony Fauci and the head of NIH Francis Collins, strongly believed that a better policy was to contain the virus – not mitigate its impacts – and hold off infections until vaccines arrived. The cost-benefit analysis of Fauci et al. differed from the GBD in that it prioritized only COVID mortality; costs were ignored and benefits assumed. Science, however, can’t decide which policy is better. The choice of what we ought to do is a problem as old as humanity, it is ethics and politics, religion, and morality. Thankfully, that’s why our system of government has a constitution and system of laws that provide us procedures for choosing policies even when equally good people disagree.

    Constitutions and procedures be damned.

    Drs. Fauci and Collins, both unelected and consequently not able to be unseated in an election, demanded a “devastating take-down” of the Great Barrington Declaration. They used their positions of immense scientific power to prod and poke and goad scientists who depend on Fauci and Collins for funding into action, generating a flurry of articles and media appearances calling the Great Barrington Declaration “fringe” and thereby imposing even stronger informal social control on scientists than that displayed during Ioannidis’ chapter of this saga. If you agreed with the GBD, you too were considered “fringe,” you were considered a “far-right Trump-supporting Libertarian.” That shouldn’t be a dis-qualifier in a sane scientific society, but such an accusation carries significant career costs in our politically siloed body of scientists.

    The anti-GBD rhetoric among some scientists with close ties to Fauci and Collins has continued to this day.

    After lockdowns, there were mask mandates and vaccine mandates. If you spoke up against vaccine mandates, whether your reasoning was scientific, religious, or political-philosophical, many scientists believed your speech should be labelled “disinformation.” Scientists, with the immense narrative power granted to them during this emergency, succeeded in labelling a great deal of information as “disinformation,” including scientific information such as early findings that immunity to COVID – including vaccine-induced immunity – may wane.

    So some – not all – scientists did indeed fight too hard in our democratic society and their insensitive need to have everything their way risked tearing the delicate fabric of our society. They tried to force policies on people that conflicted with people’s beliefs, values, or even constitutional rights. Many people are predictably not happy about that. People spoke up and advocated for their beliefs as they are free to do in our society.

    Some scientists tried to push back harder by saying that masks, lockdowns, vaccine mandates, and school closures were what The Science demanded. People, including many scientists like myself, then focused their criticism at this small band of authoritarians calling themselves The Science and interfering with our country’s representative and more inclusive policy process.

    As people revolted to these Scientists’ undemocratic policies, our elected officials took note. Our democratic republic of states was a checkerboard of policies where not everyone Followed the Science, exactly as our laboratory of democracy was intended to be, but many scientists share the political belief that states’ departures from One Policy was immoral and unscientific (one and the same, in the ethical doctrine of The Science) and that the federal government should decide most things. Incidentally, the federal government is also a hub of scientific power with science-led agencies like the CDC, NIH/NIAID, and so concentrating power in the federal government would benefit scientists whereas letting states chose policies would put the decisions about public health closer to the people and their local elected representatives..

    There was tension between the people, our local representatives, our federal representatives, and the Scientists. There was litigation challenging scientists’ suppression of speech, including Missouri v. Biden where plaintiffs include GBD authors were claiming Drs. Fauci and Collins infringed upon their freedom of speech by censoring these scientists and their sincerely held scientific and science-policy beliefs. There were court cases about masks on a plane that challenged the federal government’s deference of public health policy authority to unelected scientists. There were arguments aplenty, and scientists like Drs. Fauci or Hotez who felt they were lionized during the pandemic, who underwent an apotheosis to scientific authoritarianism in their pursuit of scientific saviorism, are now being bombarded by criticism from people, counties, states, elected representatives, and even scientists.

    To make matters worse, one of the most consequential conflicts of interest in human history lurked beneath the surface. The virus that triggered the emergency was most likely a laboratory accident from a laboratory that received funding from these same heads of health science funding, Drs. Fauci and Collins. In fact, Peter Hotez himself subcontracted work to the Wuhan Institute of Virology. It’s within the realm of possibility the NIAID money Hotez sent to Wuhan could’ve bought the exact pipette or restriction enzymes that caused the pandemic. That’s a conflict of interest when it comes to deciding policies to mitigate the harms of this likely research-related accident.

    Even without knowing the virus emerged from a lab, the mere fear they could be responsible for a global pandemic causing millions of deaths could reasonably be sufficient to cause scientists like Fauci and Hotez to exert undue influence on science and public health policy. Fears of a lab origin could explain why lab origin theories were branded as “conspiracy theories” with support from Drs. Hotez, Fauci and other health-science funders and the scientists close to them (Andersen, Holmes, Garry, etc).

    Fears of a lab origin could explain why this syndicate of scientists prioritized reducing COVID mortality through extreme measures like lockdowns instead of drawing on decades of public health science by acknowledging competing risks, encouraging participation from anthropologically diverse people whose policies are being decided, and managing the more conventional all-cause mortality and morbidity instead of implementing a myopic focus on COVID. 

    The latter policy, incidentally, was that proposed by the GBD, none of whose authors were engaged in risky virological work in Wuhan and all of which had clear heads and sound arguments. Fears of a lab origin could plausibly lead scientists, concerned of their moral failings in possibly causing a pandemic, to desperately need a scientific saviorism success story like vaccines to balance the scales saving as many millions of lives as the millions of deaths they may have caused, leading them to label scientists’ divergent views on costs and benefits of vaccines as “disinformation.” The Wuhan COI could easily affect the observed irrational need to censor opposing views.

    When we look at the pandemic history and our post-pandemic society from a more objective, less conflicted lens closer to the bodies of us innocent and diverse people Hotez labels “Anti-Science” from his siloed distance, we don’t see anything like “Anti-Science.” Instead, we see scientific authoritarianism and a predictable bipartisan anti-authoritarian response that even many scientists (including liberals like myself) support. Drs. Hotez and Fauci were authoritarians and now they are being challenged by the indomitable public that is reminding everyone who is in charge. As these authoritarians amongst us are being unseated from power, they create all manners of conspiracy theories and alternative narratives in a desperate effort to find purchase. If they can’t secure their newfound power, at least they may protect their reputations by casting their opponents as evil.

    “Anti-Science” is thus not a real thing, nor is it sufficiently widely observed to warrant the dignity of being called a social construct. Anti-Science is an ego-defensive figment of Dr. Hotez’s authoritarian imagination, it is an effort to recenter The Science – the syndicate of scientists who attempted to center their own scientific paradigms and their own policy perspectives as if they were universally true and not merely political beliefs or value statements, possibly heavily conflicted ones – as deserving of power, sympathy, defense, and trust. Dr. Hotez is staring at the narrative mirrors the public uses to show him the monster he’s become, he is seeing a horrific – and true – reflection of scientists like him during the pandemic, and he is desperately trying to restore the image of himself from the current fallen general of an epistemological banana republic, back to the lionized Science and the Scientific Saviors we Followed. Hotez uses Anti-Science as an armor and an excuse to bypass a critical self-examination of the possible insensitivity and undemocratic behavior of he and his scientific savior colleagues during the pandemic.

    The best way to assess whether a thing is objective or subjective is to ask different people if they see the same thing. That’s science. Of course, for things that hurt people like micro aggressions and the likes, it may help to ask the victims if it exists as they should experience the concentrated effects of the thing. I am a scientist, I was involved in both science and public policy during COVID, and yet I don’t see any horror of “Anti-Science” along my path in this narrative house of horrors.

    Sure, I’ve seen disagreements in the public melee. I remember the history of disinformation on climate science, tobacco, and even Russian disinformation on all things, but that is not the thing Hotez describes and there isn’t generality other than institutions protecting their self-interests not because they are “Anti” anything but because they are “Pro” self and sometimes science reveals information that hurts a business’s bottom line. I’ve also seen companies act the same way when competitors enter the market, so past conflicts have nothing to do with science specifically. I’ve even been attacked, and even attacked for my science, but mostly I’ve been attacked by other scientists (including Hotez) who disliked the political implications of my findings. The Scientists who attacked me all form a relatively small, insular network of people closely connected with NIAID, NIH, or EcoHealth Alliance. While I was a researcher in the same wildlife virology community as EcoHealth Alliance, I didn’t conduct gain-of-function research, I didn’t subcontract work to the Wuhan Institute of Virology, and I have maintained objectivity by critically evaluating the facts of the matter even where they inconveniently point to scientists’ mismanagement of risks. I’ve found flaws in Science papers and used my expertise to uncover evidence consistent with SARS-CoV-2 being a research product of EcoHealth Alliance’s pre-COVID research proposals.

    I critically examined early case data, found evidence of large pools of unascertained cases consistent with a lower-severity pandemic and was told that my science risked “upsetting public health policy.” I argued otherwise, helped in part by my brilliant wife who has a PhD in public health policy. I argued that the only way sincere science and rigorous analyses could “upset public health policy” would be if public health policy were unscientific, if scientists were usurping the public’s seats in the policy process, centering Scientists, their belief systems, their value systems, and their institutions at the expense of decentering a larger, more diverse public. I found evidence that corroborated the Great Barrington Declaration’s cost-benefit analysis, and I shared that evidence privately with policymakers without grabbing the reigns and forcing them to choose any one policy.

    As a scientist who maintained independence, who presented evidence without invading the deliberative jury or the policy process, I see scientists who became intolerant, petulant authoritarians; I don’t see “Anti-Science” as anything other than a reflection of Hotez grappling with the legitimate criticisms of his and his colleagues’ improper authoritarian scientific conduct before, during, and after the pandemic.

    Far from being “anti-scientific,” the anti-authoritarianism unseating Hotez as one of the hallmarks of a true scientist and it is a hallmark of the people our republic. You don’t have to be an expert historian or anthropologist to recall that Americans went to war with the British because my ancestors despised authoritarians ruling without representation.

    Throughout the pandemic, many members of the public have been better scientists than many prominent scientists. Members of the public and independent scientists have resisted convenient explanations when the data did not support them, such as the claim that lockdowns are indisputably wise policies when the public knew that lockdowns carried costs that were not being considered by scientists like Hotez on MSNBC.

    Members of the public and independent scientists have rightfully questioned the efficacy of masks, and only years later are their hunches about the low efficacy or possible inefficacy of masks as a public health policy becoming known by scientists.

    Members of the public and independent scientists questioned the safety and efficacy of vaccines, especially at reducing the risk of infection in the long term, and slowly, only after being labelled as “disinformation,” we are obtaining evidence of myocarditis, vaccine evasion in Provincetown, and more. Our citizenry has proven brilliant and remarkably agile, and predictably anti-authoritarian.

    Hotez calls anyone – even scientists – assessing possible costs and estimating the true benefits of vaccines as “anti-vax.” It’s not “anti-vaccine” to err on the side of caution, to help doctors maintain their Hippocratic oath by ensuring benefits of a treatment or vaccine exceed the risks on a case-by-case basis (in science, we call this “individualized medicine”).

    On the contrary, supporting systems that shake down and test hypotheses of vaccine safety and efficacy is one of the most pro-vaccine things we can do as it will inspire trust in vaccines that survive the gauntlet of scientific cross-examination. It is both pro-vax and pro-science to question the safety and efficacy of treatments, even those that have passed clinical trials, because that process of shaking down the answers gives us more confidence in the treatments we use and the science we’ve settled on. How many treatments have passed clinical trials only to be later discovered to have intolerable side effects? Would Hotez prefer “science” not uncover such later-discoverable complications?

    Similarly, it is not “Anti-Science” to question the policies recommended by scientists or to investigate the possibility that scientists caused a pandemic. What Hotez calls “Anti-Science” is the core of science itself: an independence of mind, a diversity of perspectives, and an anti-authoritarian proclivity that conflicts with the interests of authoritarians masquerading as scientists. It is this independence and anti-authoritarianism that inspires confidence in science as well as democratic society, not the toxic ramblings of a scientific authoritarian as he’s unseated from power.

    Republished from the author’s Substack

    Alex Washburne is a mathematical biologist and the founder and chief scientist at Selva Analytics. He studies competition in ecological, epidemiological, and economic systems research, with research on covid epidemiology, the economic impacts of pandemic policy, and stock market response to epidemiological news.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/19/2023 – 17:40

  • New Rocket Attacks In Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen Suggest Prospect For Regional Conflagration Growing
    New Rocket Attacks In Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen Suggest Prospect For Regional Conflagration Growing

    Update(1735ET): Israeli media is reporting that the United States is currently in talks to establish ‘safe zones’ in Gaza after it was widely reported that the IDF has been given the green light by the Netanyahu government to go into the Gaza Strip. There are also emerging reports that an Orthodox Church in Gaza has suffered attack by an Israeli strike, via Times of Israel: 

    The Hamas-controlled interior ministry says several displaced people who had taken shelter at a church compound in the Gaza Strip have been killed and injured in an Israeli strike.

    There was no immediate comment from the IDF, which tells AFP it is looking into the potential strike.

    The strike left a “large number of martyrs and injured” at the compound of a Greek Orthodox church, the ministry says.

    Witnesses tell AFP the strike appears to have been aimed at a target close to the place of worship where many Gaza residents have taken refuge.

    Additionally, Russia has said it is moving more military assets to its bases in Syria:

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    Moody’s has meanwhile said Israel is under review and could soon be downgraded:

    The Moody’s international credit rating agency announces that it is reviewing Israel for a possible downgrade of its A1 credit rating.

    Moody’s says the review has been “triggered by the unexpected and violent conflict between Israel and Hamas.”

    It notes that while Israel has “proven resilient” in past conflicts, the current level of violence “raises the possibility of longer lasting and material credit impact.”

    The Pentagon has confirmed that American troops suffered injuries during the last 24 hours of drone and rocket attacks against bases in Iraq and Syria:

    Two drones targeted a base in western Iraq used by U.S. forces, and one drone targeted a base in northern Iraq. U.S. forces intercepted all three, destroying two but only damaging the third, which led to minor injuries among coalition forces at the western base, according to a statement Wednesday by U.S. Central Command.

    “In this moment of heightened alert, we are vigilantly monitoring the situation in Iraq and the region. U.S. forces will defend U.S. and coalition forces against any threat,” Central Command said in the release.

    On Thursday, several drones and rockets also targeted US troops locations in Deir Ezzor Syria and Al-Tanf.

    * * *

    Update(1458ET): A huge escalation from Iran-linked militants, just after international headlines reported Israel’s military has been given the “green light” to enter Gaza:

    According to CNN, a U.S. Navy vessel operating in the Middle East region intercepted multiple missiles launched from Yemen. A U.S. official says the missiles were launched from the Iran-backed Houthi militant group.

    According to more from ABC’s senior Pentagon correspondent, US officials confirm to ABC “the destroyer USS Carney shot down multiple Houthi missiles last night. They were NOT aimed at the ship, but headed in a northerly direction.” There’s speculation that they may have been fired toward Israel in solidarity with Gaza. Israel media is reporting:

    Israel believes that the missiles launched from Yemen and intercepted by a US warship today were aimed at Israel – Channel 13

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    Oil surged as the report hit headlines…

    According to geopolitical analyst Jason Brodsky, this means Iranian-backed ‘resistance’ movements are achieving “unification of the fronts: first Gaza, then skirmishes from Hezbollah, Iraq, Syria, now Yemen.”

    * * *

    With the whole region still on edge due to fast moving events in Gaza and on the Lebanese border, US troops in Syria have again come under attack, this time by drones which may have caused injuries.

    Drones were sent, allegedly by “Iran-linked” paramilitary groups, against an oil facility in eastern Syria housing American troops, as well as against a US military outpost in the southern desert near Iraq.

    US Army file image

    Al-Tanf base, which is the Pentagon’s lone outpost in the south along the Iraq border, was the separate base that came under attack, per a Beirut-based news source:

    According to informed sources who spoke with Al-Mayadeen, three drones were able to fly above the Al-Tanf base at the Syrian-Iraqi-Jordanian border and launch several successful airstrikes.

    “The attack led to a major alert within [Al-Tanf], with continuous flights of military aircraft and helicopters in the area,” Al-Mayadeen reported.

    Sources within the US-led coalition that spoke with Iraq’s Shafaq News on Wednesday claimed that the occupation forces “successfully intercepted and downed two of the drones, but the third managed to target the base.”

    The US occupation base at Conoco oil field in Deir Ezzor governorate was also hit by multiple rockets.

    As of Thursday Israel’s military has reportedly been given the “green light” to enter Gaza…

    The Israeli military has a “green light” to move into Gaza whenever it’s ready, a member of the country’s security cabinet told ABC News.

    Hostages and civilian casualties will be secondary to destroying Hamas, Economy Minister Nir Barakat told ABC News, “even if it takes a year.”

    And more dire threats from Israeli officials:

    Asked about the miles of tunnels Hamas has built under Gaza, he said they’d become the “world’s biggest cemetery.” Hamas has claimed to be holding some or all of the 203 Israeli hostages it’s taken within that vast network.

    “We shall do all efforts to bring our hostages, to bring our hostages [back] alive…” he said, but the “first and last priority” is destroying Hamas.

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    In the overnight hours, exchanges of fire between the Syrian Army or paramilitaries and Israel were observed in the south. “Sounds of explosions rang out in the province of Quneitra after an Israeli strike against a Syrian army position,” said a regional monitor.

    The IDF has also in the last several hours affirmed it is striking against “terrorist positions” of Hezbollah in the region.

    Some regional correspondents have said missiles were launched against US bases in Syria as well…

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    The US military has confirmed its bases in Syria have come under attack, after the day prior US positions in Iraq were attacked as well. Casualties or officials details have remained unclear.

    Targeting American troops in Syria and Iraq shows just how dangerous things could rapidly get for Pentagon forces in the region. If Hezbollah and Israel enter full war along the border, these American bases would likely suffer much bigger attacks.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/19/2023 – 17:35

  • Average American Only Needs $658k To Retire, One Study Shows
    Average American Only Needs $658k To Retire, One Study Shows

    Well, if one new personal finance study is accurate, at least we might be seeing deflation somewhere…

    When it comes to retirement, the figure $3 million is often thrown around. For example, this article from Bloomberg states that the answer to the question “how much is enough to retire comfortably?” is “somewhere between $3 million and $5 million”. 

    But online personal finance guide Moneyzine has crunched the numbers on this (on a State-by-State basis) and has figured out that this figure is far, far lower. In a new study, Moneyzine has said that “the average American should be saving $10,178 a year from their earnings to be put into a retirement plan” and will have need to have saved $658,883 to be able to retire with the same standard of living as they’re accustomed to. 

    This should only take the average American 22 years to save with compound interest, the zine says. In extreme circumstances, for those who want to live to the oldest recorded age of 122, one would need $2,963,879 saved the study says. 

    “Often, the figures thrown around about retirement savings can seem overwhelming. While it’s true that the cost of living and future uncertainties require a substantial nest egg, presenting multi-million dollar figures to the average individual is intimidating,” Jonathan Merry, personal finance expert and CEO at Moneyzine stated. “It can also be counterproductive as these massive numbers tend to create a mental block for many. Instead of motivating them, it pushes them further away from the idea of financial planning altogether.”

    The study outlined a full list of what each state should be saving based on average income after tax.

    Merry added: “It’s crucial that we frame these discussions in a more approachable and realistic way. To that end, we’ve looked at the average wage in the USA to see what people need to start putting away for a more realistic look at a comfortable retirement.”

    The study analyzed average yearly salaries state by state, accounting for taxes to arrive at a potential monthly take-home pay. Following a widely accepted financial guideline, the study suggests allocating your post-tax income in the following way: 50% for necessities, 30% for discretionary expenses, and 20% for savings.

    It also looked at money needed for retirement, per state.

    Full charts and the full study can be found at Moneyzine.com. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/19/2023 – 17:20

  • Quinn: Is It Worth Fighting For?
    Quinn: Is It Worth Fighting For?

    Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform,

    “I wish it need not have happened in my time,” said Frodo.
    “So do I,” said Gandalf, “and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” ― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Fellowship of the Ring

    J.R.R. Tolkien wrote his epic Lord of the Rings trilogy during the darkest days of World War II and in the midst of our last Fourth Turning Crisis. As a young man he had experienced the horror of war on the Western Front during World War I, where all but one of his best friends were killed. Tolkien’s novel documents the never ending battle between good and evil.

    There are many moments of peril, where the future of Middle Earth depended upon the bravery, courage and tenacity of a few seemingly average hobbits. This was also true of various episodes during the Second World War where the fortitude and courage of the average man turned the tide at Midway, Stalingrad, Normandy, Guadalcanal, and many other battles.

    It is becoming clear to me, we are on the verge of both a global war and likely civil war within a relatively short time frame. This is consistent with the expected timing based on previous Fourth Turning Crisis periods in history. Neil Howe, in his new book – The Fourth Turning is Here – also projects violence to increase over the next few years, with a a likely climax in the 2030 to 2033 time frame. The climax will reveal the clear winners and losers from the coming conflicts. Of course, the entire world could lose if the psychopaths calling the shots are insane enough to initiate Armageddon.

    I wish this Fourth Turning hadn’t happened in my time, but we don’t get to choose the times we inhabit. We are all unwilling participants in a historical crisis which will determine the fates of future generations and falling empires, creating heroes and villains who will occupy passages in history tomes, read by school children a century from now during the next Fourth Turning. We can’t avoid this Fourth Turning and turn time back to seasons gone by, just as once you enter the harsh stormy dark days of winter, you can’t turn time back to the peaceful warm idyllic days of Fall.

    We have to navigate the stormy days ahead and all we can do is try to make the time we have left on this earth be worthwhile and make a difference. We are truly in an epic battle between good and evil. The Eye of Sauron (aka the Deep State Surveillance Consortium) and the morally bankrupt minions doing the bidding of the globalist Great Reset cabal, are the enemy of humanity and must be fought to the death.

    There still is some good in this world, and it is worth fighting for. Whether it be passive Irish Democracy resistance, ridiculing and embarrassing the enemy, bartering to deny the government their taxes, growing your own food, raising your own livestock, or ultimately taking up arms when this crisis goes hot, we have to fight for what is good and decent in this world. Why else are we on this earth than to do whatever it takes to insure our children and their children inhabit a planet where humanity, family, humility, and community are valued, while greed, depravity, selfishness and glorifying the individual are scorned and discarded?

    We are clearly headed toward global and domestic armed conflict. You just need to look around to see what’s going down. Fear and denial are your internal enemy, which must be overcome to face the real enemy. You should be paranoid, because your own government is your enemy. The destroyers have seized control of our country and will not relinquish their wealth, power and control, unless we defeat them on the battlefield. War must be. Is our love for that what we cherish worth fighting for? We’ll see shortly.

    “War must be, while we defend our lives against a destroyer who would devour all; but I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend.” ― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Two Towers

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/19/2023 – 17:00

  • Elon Musk Calls Remote Workers "Detached From Reality"
    Elon Musk Calls Remote Workers “Detached From Reality”

    Tesla CEO Elon Musk went on a crusade against the remote work crowd during the company’s earnings call with investors on Wednesday evening. This is not the first time Musk has blasted remote work, calling it “morally wrong” and “bullshit” earlier this year.

    Here’s where Musk begins to rant about remote work during Tesla’s Q3 earnings call (transcript via Bloomberg): 

    It’s not a — sometimes you get these, like — no, honestly, I would say it’s like, somewhat correlates with the why doesn’t everyone work from home crowd? I’m like, I mean, this is like some real Marie Antoinette vibes from people that say, why doesn’t everyone work from home? Like, what about all the people that have to come to the factory and fill the cars? What about all the people that have to go to the restaurant and make your food and deliver your food. It’s like, what are you talking about? You — I mean, how detached from reality is the work-from-home crowd have to be? While they take advantage of all those who do, you cannot work-from-home. So I mean, you have to say, like, why did I sleep in the factory so many times? Because it mattered. So I just can’t emphasize how important cost is. It’s not an optional thing for most people. It is a necessary thing.

    Musk made similar comments in May. He called remote work “morally wrong” and “bullshit,” arguing it was unfair to those who can’t work at home. 

    “I’m a big believer that people need to be more productive when they’re in person,” Musk told CNBC’s David Faber at the time. 

    In June 2022, Musk implemented a strict return-to-the-office policy for Tesla workers. He has since forced Twitter staff to return to the office for at least 40 hours a week. 

    “Get off the goddamn moral high horse with the work-from-home bullshit,” Musk previously said, adding, “If you want to work at Tesla, you want to work at SpaceX, you want to work at Twitter — you got to come into the office every day.” 

    Here’s the transcript of Tesla’s Q3 earnings call:

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/19/2023 – 16:40

  • Why Bankman-Fried’s FTX Fraud Trial Isn’t Going His Way
    Why Bankman-Fried’s FTX Fraud Trial Isn’t Going His Way

    Authored by Kevin Stocklin via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    (Illustration by The Epoch Times, Getty Images)

    The trial of Sam Bankman-Fried has thus far strongly supported the prosecution’s charges of securities fraud, analysts say; meanwhile, any questions regarding his massive political donations have been put off for another day.

    Since its start on Oct. 3, the trial has featured compelling testimony from former colleagues FTX co-founder Gary Wang and Alameda CEO Caroline Ellison, both of whom pointed the finger at Mr. Bankman-Fried—also known by his initials, SBF—as the ringmaster of one of the largest financial frauds in U.S. history. The defense has struggled to make its case, although Mr. Bankman-Fried’s attorneys may still have cards to play.

    “As of now, it’s not going well for the defense,” Braden Perry, a former federal enforcement attorney who’s currently a partner at Kennyhertz Perry, told The Epoch Times. “Both Ellison and Wang have testified that SBF directed them to commit the crimes.”

    The prosecution has been methodically building its case, Mr. Perry said. Assistant U.S. Attorneys Nicolas Roos and Danielle Sassoon presented consistent testimony that Mr. Bankman-Fried knowingly and intentionally defrauded investors, and they also made efforts to humanize the losses suffered by FTX customers.

    “The evidence that has come out over the first two weeks of trial is all to the point that SBF was involved, either directly or indirectly, in a conspiracy with people who themselves have pled guilty to committing fraud,” Daniel Silva, a former federal prosecutor who’s currently a shareholder at business law firm Buchalter, told The Epoch Times.

    The prosecution’s case thus far “is very strong,” he said.

    And while cryptocurrencies are arcane financial instruments, the case itself is straightforward.

    FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried (C) leaves the U.S. federal courthouse in New York on March 30, 2023. (Ed Jones/AFP via Getty Images)

    A Simple Tale of Theft and Deceit

    “It’s a typical corporate fraud case,” Mr. Silva said. “The product may have been complex, but the fraud itself is not unique. Basically, the allegations are that [the defendants] improperly and deceptively took money from customers and investors for FTX owners’ personal use.”

    The prosecution has largely avoided delving into the intricacies of cryptocurrencies, focusing instead on the simpler narrative of theft and deceit.

    “What this trial boils down to is FTX’s use and Alameda’s use of customer funds,” Mr. Perry said. “The prosecution will need to prove SBF used those funds knowingly and fraudulently.”

    According to the allegations, “SBF was the front of the entire enterprise, including Alameda,” he said. “Further, SBF used a massive [line of credit,] which was not disclosed to Alameda customers or investors.”

    While approximately $9 billion of customers’ and investors’ money has gone missing in the 2022 collapse of crypto exchange FTX and its affiliated hedge fund Alameda Research, the trial on Oct. 4 featured testimony from an individual investor who had lost $100,000 on the FTX crypto exchange to show jurors how retail investors were personally harmed.

    This was an “interesting start.” according to Mr. Perry.

    “It shows how a typical investor was duped by the ‘safeness’ of FTX,” he said.

    The prosecution then laid the foundation of its case with testimony from Mr. Wang, FTX’s former chief technology officer, who said he coded the accounts of Alameda Research to allow it to run negative balances on the FTX exchange. This gave Alameda the ability to borrow money from the exchange and ultimately to take clients’ funds—without their knowledge or consent—to pay off billions of dollars in loans and trading losses and to lend money to FTX executives for their personal use.

    Mr. Wang said Alameda accounts were set up this way at the direction of Mr. Bankman-Fried but that this special arrangement between the two companies was kept secret from FTX customers. Mr. Wang pled guilty to charges of securities fraud and accepted a plea deal with prosecutors to testify against Mr. Bankman-Fried.

    The prosecution’s case then shifted to how customers’ money was taken by Alameda Research.

    Ms. Ellison took the stand next and accused Mr. Bankman-Fried of directing her to use Alameda’s credit line with FTX to repay approximately $10 billion in loans, which she could only do by taking money from FTX customers. She said he also instructed her to deceive Alameda creditors regarding the extent of its indebtedness.

    Her testimony became emotional when during cross-examination, she broke down in tears and said she lived in “dread” that her actions to deceive investors would come to light and that when Alameda and FTX finally collapsed, it brought her an “overwhelming feeling of relief.”

    Defense Fights Uphill Battle

    In sum, this evidence has put the defense in a particularly challenging position, analysts say.

    You can attack testimony and witnesses and their credibility and recollection, which it sounds like they’re trying to do,” Mr. Silva said. “But at the end of the day, when you have multiple people saying the same thing—basically that SBF committed fraud and directed us to commit fraud—it’s really tough to undermine those witnesses or the impact of that.

    “Strategically, there’s only so much you can do.

    “Even if you’re the greatest [attorney] in the world, you can’t make evidence disappear.”

    The defense, indeed, appears to be floundering.

    Lead defense attorney Mark Cohen had argued in his opening statement that Mr. Bankman-Fried’s associates were the actual perpetrators and that his client was either unaware of or not directly involved in their crimes. Mr. Bankman-Fried stepped down as CEO of Alameda Research in October 2021, handing the reins to Ms. Ellison.

    Mr. Cohen succeeded in getting Ms. Ellison to admit to instances in which Mr. Bankman-Fried wasn’t directly involved in the workings of Alameda, but he largely failed to discredit her overall testimony that Mr. Bankman-Fried was the ultimate decision-maker, legal analysts say.

    Mr. Cohen’s line of questioning appeared to ramble at times, repeatedly changing topics and dates and, at one point, referencing a wrong document. Another time, he paused to say he’d lost his place.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/19/2023 – 16:20

  • Yields Soar, Oil Roars As Stocks Plunge In Rollercoaster Session
    Yields Soar, Oil Roars As Stocks Plunge In Rollercoaster Session

    With traders already exhausted by relentless, brutal daily whipsaws, today was not the day anyone expected the rollercoaster would end, and a good thing too because it was another brutal day for those tracking every twist and turn in the S&P, which in turn was pingponged about by headlines from both the New York Economic Club where Powell was speaking and also from the middle east, where the war between Israel and Hamas threatens to erupt into a much bigger regional conflict with every passing day.

    With too much going on for a blow by blow, here is a chart summary of some of the key market reversals today, starting with the Powell rollercoaster and then progressing to the latest (adverse) developments out of the Middle East.

    While stocks had a bad day, 0DTE traders were even more bearish, with the Delta flow outpacing the decline in equities by a sizable margin.

    Source: Spotgamma

    Virtually every sector was red…

    … with the only outlier being communication services which was green thanks to just one company: Netflix, which soared as much as 17%, its biggest one-day surge since Jan 2021…

    … but while NFLX longs rejoiced, the same could not be said for TSLA shareholders: Elon Musk’s EV company tumbled more than 10%, its worst drop since Jan 2023.

    As stocks tumbled, the VIX soared, and after 105 consecutive days of closing below 20, the longest streak since 2019…

    … the VIX index finally closed above 20 – in fact above 21 – breaking the streak on day 106.

    But believe it or not, the swings in the S&P, which weren’t even that wild with the S&P barely dipping more than 1%, were not the day’s main event: that would be the combination of soaring yields, which saw the 10Y rise as high as 4.992% and the 30Y touch 5.10%, levels which Morgan Stanley and Goldman both said earlier were buy triggers…

    … as well as the surge in oil, which exploded $4 from session lows, and sent WTI above $89 and Brent above $93.

    That said, oil wasn’t the only flight to safety. Capital flows into gold also extended, sending the precious metal to $1974, the highest price since July, and up $150 in just two weeks…

    … while digital gold also saw continued buying which sent bitcoin to $28,775 the highest since August, and on pace to rise back above $30K in days if not hours.

    Finally, while investor focus has been targeting the middle east as the new geopolitical hot spot, keep an eye on the US, where 5Yr CDS just hit the highest level since May when the US financial system was again on the edge of collapse and had to be bailed out with the Fed’s BTFP facility.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/19/2023 – 16:08

  • "I Resigned": Senior State Dept. Official Quits Over "Unjust" Military Aid To Israel
    “I Resigned”: Senior State Dept. Official Quits Over “Unjust” Military Aid To Israel

    A longtime State Department official in the bureau that oversees arms transfers resigned this week in protest of the Biden administration’s decision to continue sending weapons and ammunition to Israel in support of its war with Hamas.

    “This administration, I think, knows better and understands some of the complexity, but brought very little of that nuance to the policy decisions that are being made,” said Josh Paul, who resigned from the State Department.Credit…Courtesy of Josh Paul via NY Times

    Josh Paul, who served as the director of congressional and public affairs for the State Department’s Bureau of Political-Military Affairs for 11 years, said the Biden administration’s “blind support for one side” had led to policy decisions that were “shortsighted, destructive, unjust and contradictory to the very values we publicly espouse.”

    “Let me be clear: Hamas’ attack on Israel was not just a monstrosity; it was a monstrosity of monstrosities,” the letter reads. “But I believe to the core of my soul that the response Israel is taking, and with it the American support both for that response… will only lead to more and deeper suffering for both the Israeli and the Palestinian people – and is not in the long term American interest.”

    “I fear we are repeating the same mistakes we have made these past decades, and I decline to be a part of it for longer,” the letter continues.

    Paul told the NY Times that Israel cutting off water, food, medical care and electricity to the two million or so residents of Gaza should trigger a slew of federal laws that should normally prevent US weapons ending up in the hands of human rights violators.

    “The problem with all of those provisions is that it rests on the executive branch making a determination that human rights violations have occurred,” Paul said. “The decision to make a determination doesn’t rest with some nonpartisan academic entity, and there’s no incentive for the president to actually determine anything.”

    In a Wednesday visit to Tel Aviv while his administration prepares a $10 billion military aid package, Biden warned Israelis not to give in to an “all-consuming rage” that would be looked upon as an overreaction to the attack by Hamas earlier this month in which over 1,400 Israelis were killed and nearly 200 hostages were taken.

    Paul, whose resignation was first reported by the Huffington Post, said he’s seen the US Government approve several sales or shipments of matériel to other Middle Eastern countries seemingly in violation of federal law.

    “On all of them there’s a moment where you can say, OK, well, you know, it’s out of my hands, but I know Congress is going to push back,” he said, adding “But in this instance, there isn’t any significant pushback likely from Congress, there isn’t any other oversight mechanism, there isn’t any other forum for debate, and that’s part of what got into my decision making.”

    By continuing to give Israel what Paul described as carte blanche to kill a generation of enemies, which will only create a new one, US interests are not served.

    “What it leads to is this desire to sort of impose security at any cost, including in cost to the Palestinian civilian population,” he said. “And that doesn’t ultimately lead to security.”

    “This administration, I think, knows better and understands some of the complexity but brought very little of that nuance to the policy decisions that are being made.”

    Paul says he’s received an outpouring of support from State Department colleagues and congressional staff members.

    “A lot of people are wrestling with this being the current policy and are finding it to be deeply problematic,” he said, adding “I’ve really been quite moved by some of the folks who have reached out to say that they understand where I’m coming from. They respect my decision. It’s been very supportive.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/19/2023 – 15:45

  • Conservative White Professor Falsely Accused Of Harassing Black Student In Viral Video
    Conservative White Professor Falsely Accused Of Harassing Black Student In Viral Video

    By Micaiah Bilger, Assistant Editor of The College Fix

    A black University of Dallas student’s viral video claiming a white professor “harassed” her for listening to a recorded lecture too loudly outside her office is unfounded, a campus spokeswoman said Tuesday.

    Clare Venegas, vice president of marketing and communications, told The College Fix officials investigated the student’s claims against history Professor Susan Hanssen in the video, which has amassed more than 7 million views on TikTok in the past week.

    @coritoocutee

    why did this lady call campus security before this video and had a tantrum bc they couldnt escort me out 🥴???? chilee and the sound was only on 25 until she got crazy so it went to a 100 idc!

    ♬ original sound – it’s cori

    https://www.tiktok.com/embed.js

    Administrators at the private Catholic university found no cause for disciplinary measures against the professor, who is well-known on campus as a conservative scholar.

    “The University of Dallas takes all allegations of harassment and discrimination seriously,” Venegas said. “As has been publicly disclosed, university officials undertook measures to investigate the student’s allegations, and the matter was resolved with a finding of no policy violation and no recommendation for disciplinary action.”

    The student and professor both said they were satisfied with the university’s decision, Venegas told The Fix.

    The video of the interaction, which the student posted last week but actually took place six months ago, shows the student, identified only as Cori, and Hanssen filming each other in the hallway of a university building near the professor’s office, according to the student’s TikTok page, @coritoocutee.

    In the Oct. 11 post, Cori said the professor “harassed” her for “listening to a lecture” on her laptop without headphones because she did not want to close her office door.

    The College Fix contacted Cori this week through her TikTok and Instagram accounts to ask why she posted the video six months after the interaction, if she was aware of the university’s investigation outcome, and if she thinks race was a factor in the incident, as some have implied. She did not respond.

    Venegas said Hanssen has become the target of “defamatory” attacks since the video went viral last week.

    “The recent posting of the video has resulted in an onslaught of unjustified and defamatory attacks on Dr. Hanssen’s personal character, which we strongly condemn,” she told The Fix. “The University of Dallas prides itself in forming our students to think well, to reason well, and to dialogue civilly, virtues and behaviors that social media platforms are not conducive for cultivating.”

    Hanssen also confirmed to The College Fix the university found no cause for disciplinary action against her.

    “The university investigated the incident and concluded that there were no grounds for opening a Title IX case nor any unprofessional behavior requiring disciplinary action,” Hanssen told The Fix in an email Monday.

    Within the past week, the student posted two videos on TikTok about Hanssen. The first video shows Hanssen walking around the hallway, filming the student.

    In a second video, published over the weekend, which has more than 400,000 views, Cori told her side of the story. She said she was sitting at a table near the professor’s office listening to a lecture on her laptop when Hanssen approached her to complain about the noise.

    Cori said she turned down the volume on her computer, but Hanssen approached her again a short time later asking “if she had headphones or if she could leave.” Hanssen told the student her office hours were starting soon, Cori said.

    “I was like, ‘No, I don’t have headphones, and I’m not gonna leave.’ And after that, it took a whole turn,” the student alleges in the video. “She was like putting her fingers in my face. She was like, ‘I despise students like you.’ And I was like, ‘What? Baby girl? Students like who? Students like who?’”

    Eventually, Cori said the professor called campus security, and when the officer arrived, he “sympathized” with her, not Hanssen.

    “So, when he leaves and he doesn’t do anything about it, she’s still p—ed off,” Cori said in the video.

    At one point, Cori said she did turn up the volume again just to be “petty” because she was upset Hanssen was recording her.

    “I do admit I was probably petty, oh like I’m going to turn it up,” she said.

    None of this interaction is shown in the first video, and the second video does not include any additional footage of their interaction.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/19/2023 – 15:30

  • Just Kidding! Jim Jordan To Seek Third Speaker Vote After Chaos Ensues
    Just Kidding! Jim Jordan To Seek Third Speaker Vote After Chaos Ensues

    Update (1515ET): Earlier Thursday, Jim Jordan said he wouldn’t hold a third ballot for speaker, and would instead let interim speaker Patrick McHenry (R-NC) hold the gavel until January – with Rep. David Joyce (R-OH) drafting legislation to give McHenry the full powers that come with the job.

    This rubbed many Republicans the wrong way, as McHenry is backed by Democrats.

    “As I have made very clear over the last few days, we should never allow a Democrat-backed coalition government. Ever. The only coalition we should be looking to build is a Republican coalition uniting all of our conference,” said Rep. Tom Emmer.

    Steve Scalise, Jordan’s previous opponent for speaker who pulled out, as well as Elise Stefanik (R-NY) arealso opposed to a Dem-friendly speakership going into January.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    And now, Jordan appears to be open to a 3rd vote, and says he wants to talk to the 20 holdouts who blocked his first two attempts.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    To be continued…

    *  *  *

    After suffering defeat twice, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) will not hold a third vote for speaker, and will instead back Patrick McHenry (R-NC) as interim speaker until January.

    This, after Jordan met with former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), McHenry, Cole (R-OK), and Emmer (R-MN) to discuss options, Punchbowl News reports.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    After the first two rounds, a group of Republicans made it clear that Jordan wouldn’t enjoy enough support to win the speaker’s gavel. With House functions at a standstill – including dealing with a looming shutdown after the 6-week band-aid expires mid-November, lawmakers can now move forward with a proposal to expand McHenry’s powers. Punchbowl also notes that there’s “essentially no difference between a speaker and a speaker pro tem.”

    “There is a question whether a speaker pro tem would be in the presidential line of succession. There are also questions about whether he could take part in other speaker functions that have evolved over the years — Gang of Eight intelligence briefings, for instance.”

    Jordan will remain the speaker designee, and will maintain the option to hold a speaker vote at any time.

    According to Bloomberg, senior Democrats are supportive of the plan.

    As Axios notes, McHenry, 47, will essentially have the same power as an elected speaker. More:

    • McHenry got two ironic endorsements late yesterday: former GOP speakers Newt Gingrich and John Boehner. Both were run out of office — just like Rep. Kevin McCarthy was a few weeks ago.

    Driving the news: Rep. Dave Joyce (R-Ohio) plans to introduce a measure on Wednesday that would temporarily empower McHenry to oversee the passage of legislation, Axios’ Andrew Solender reports.

    • The plan would be to introduce it if Jordan fails another House floor vote — and it would require McHenry to cooperate by recognizing Joyce on the House floor.

    And so, Jordan is off the hook – for now.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/19/2023 – 15:14

  • Biden To Deliver Prime-Time Oval Office Address On Israel, Ukraine
    Biden To Deliver Prime-Time Oval Office Address On Israel, Ukraine

    Following a trip to Israel that did little to soothe worries of broadening conflict in the region, President Biden will address the American people from the Oval Office at 8 pm ET Thursday night, delivering a speech intended to foster Congressional support for throwing more money at not only Israel but also Ukraine. 

    “Tomorrow, President Biden will address the nation to discuss our response to Hamas’ terrorist attacks against Israel and Russia’s ongoing brutal war against Ukraine,” said White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre in a statement. 

    Support for funding the West’s proxy war against Russia in Ukraine has been sagging, particularly in the wake of a vaunted Ukraine counteroffensive that has resulted in a net loss of territory. Last month, an amendment that would prohibit any more military aid to Ukraine won the support of 93 Republicans…and zero Democrats. That was a gain of 23 votes from a similar resolution offered in July. 

    Destroyed Ukrainian armored vehicles in Donetsk (Russian Defense Ministry)

    As the 2007-08 financial crisis erupted, then-White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel famously said, “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And what I mean by that is an opportunity to do things that you think you could not do before.”

    That spirit will be evident in Biden’s prime time address: The Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel gives the White House and the war state an opportunity to tie Ukraine aid to security assistance for Israel — something few members of Congress will dare oppose, and especially Republicans.  

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Further sweetening the deal for Ukraine-weary Republicans, Biden will also ask for money for Taiwan and the US-Mexico border, the New York Times reports. He’s expected to ask for a total of $100 billion, about $60 billion of which would go to Ukraine, compared to $10 billion for Israel. The package will be positioned as an allocation meant to last a year, deferring the need for additional requests from Congress.  

    The US government has poured more than $75 billion into Ukraine since Russia invaded Ukraine in January 2021. As the outlays have mounted, so too has the technological complexity of the weapons. Just last weekend, Ukraine fired ATACMS missiles at Russian forces for the first time. 

    In Tel Aviv, Biden said he would request an “unprecedented support package for Israel’s defense.” Though Israel is among the world’s richest countries, it already receives about $3.3 billion in annual assistance from the US government — even as America’s total public debt has surged past $33 trillion, to say nothing of unfunded liabilities related to entitlement programs.  

    A rocket is fired from an Israeli “Iron Dome” missile defense platform; the US government gives Israel billions of dollars to maintain the system (IDF)

    Oval Office addresses are relatively rare. In March 2020, Donald Trump detailed his administration’s plans to counter the Covid-19 pandemic. Obama spoke in 2015 following the Islamic extremist mass shooting in San Bernardino, and in 2010 after the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. George W. Bush memorably used the Oval Office to address the country on 9/11.

    Much as Bush lied to Americans by telling them al Qaeda attacked them because of their “freedom,” expect Biden to tell his audience that military and financial aid to Israel keeps Americans safe — when in fact that support is one of the principal motivators of terrorism against US civilians. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/19/2023 – 15:10

  • Peter Schiff: The "Unsinkable" American Consumer Is Drowning In Debt
    Peter Schiff: The “Unsinkable” American Consumer Is Drowning In Debt

    Via SchiffGold.com,

    Every time retail sales come in higher than expected, the mainstream media breathlessly reports this as proof that the American consumer is strong and resilient. In his podcast, Peter Schiff explained that these retail sales numbers aren’t a sign of a strong economy. They just reflect Americans paying more for less. And what’s worse, they’re burying themselves in debt to do it.

    Retail sales were indeed stronger than expected in September, increasing by 0.7%. The expectation was for a 0.3% gain. Year-over-year, retail sales are up 3.8%.

    The media hyped the report. CNN said it was a sign that consumers “aren’t tapping out just yet.” But Peter said the report was not actually good news.

    First, it’s important to remember that retail sales data is not inflation-adjusted.

    Everything costs more. Everything you buy is a lot more expensive. So, assuming that you don’t buy less, and of course, some people are buying less, but if you just buy the same stuff and everything costs a lot more, well of course, retail sales are going to go up.”

    But this doesn’t indicate that the economy is thriving, and it doesn’t mean Americans are on a spending spree buying more stuff.

    In many cases, they’re buying a lot less. They’re just paying more. And they’re buying fewer of the things that they want because they’re paying more to buy the things that they need.”

    If you adjust the annual retail sales increase of 3.8% by the CPI, it drops to 0.1%. In other words, almost the entirety of the retail sales increase was due to rising prices. Nevertheless, the raw retail sales data creates the impression that Americans are happily spending money. Peter said you can’t necessarily draw that conclusion.

    Americans aren’t happy that their grocery bill went up, and they’re probably not eating more or eating better. In fact, they’re probably trading down into lower-quality stuff. They’re just paying more.”

    For instance, restaurant sales were up big. But if you’ve eaten out recently, you know the cost of everything on the menu has gone up dramatically. Even if you eat out less, you’re still spending more. Peter emphasized that none of this is a sign of a strong economy.

    It is a sign of inflation. And that’s all this retail sales number is reflecting — inflation. It’s not about a strong economy, but about rising inflation.”

    And we all know that actual prices are rising even faster than the CPI numbers indicate because the formula intentionally understates price inflation.

    Obviously, if the government is underreporting how much prices are going up, then the retail sales are actually capturing the real increase in prices because it’s what the consumers are actually paying. It’s not what the government is pretending they’re actually paying, but what they are, in fact, paying. So, these retail sales numbers are probably a better reflection of inflation than the CPI.”

    We shouldn’t celebrate this. It’s bad news. But the media keeps talking about the “unsinkable American consumer.”

    He’s not unsinkable. He’s downing in debt! And the only reason he’s still floating is because he’s got two or three jobs. … This is not a report card on the success of the American economy, but on the failure. Because what it’s really measuring is the cost of living. People have to spend a lot more money to buy the same amount of stuff that they bought in the past.”

    And as Peter noted, they’re buying a lot of this stuff on credit. Revolving credit – primarily credit card debt – surged by 13.9% in August. Americans now owe $1.28 trillion in revolving credit.

    According to MarketWatch, “Americans appear to be relying more on debt to pay for their purchases. They are also using more ‘buy now and pay later’ plans.”

    Peter pointed out that breaking down retail sales reveals the strain felt by consumers. Categories like food are up. But electronics sales are down.

    [Americans] are spending more on shelter. They’re spending more on energy. They’re spending more on food. They’re spending more on insurance. They’re spending more on healthcare. They’ve got to make these expenditures. They have no choice. And the problem is when they finish buying all the things they need, they don’t have much left over for the things that they want.”

    The consumer credit data reveals the same thing. While credit card spending surged in August, non-revolving credit tanked. That represents borrowing for big-ticket items. So, Americans are using credit cards to pay for the basics like food and gas, and they’re not making bigger purchases at all.

    Peter goes on to explain why an economy built on consumer spending isn’t something to brag about.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/19/2023 – 14:50

  • Threads Ban On Search Terms Related To COVID-19 Is 'Temporary': Instagram Chief
    Threads Ban On Search Terms Related To COVID-19 Is ‘Temporary’: Instagram Chief

    Authored by Stephen Katte via The Epoch Times,

    Social media platform Threads’s ban on search terms related to COVID-19 is only temporary, Instagram chief Adam Mosseri has revealed.

    In an Oct. 17 post on Threads, Mr. Mosseri said he didn’t have a firm date on when the ban would be lifted, but he didn’t think it would be a permanent situation.

    “I don’t have an ETA to give you, unfortunately, but it is temporary, and we are working on it. We’re just getting pulled in a lot of directions at once right now,” Mr. Mosseri said.

    “The broader team is working on deeper integrations into Instagram and Facebook, graph building, EU compliance, Fediverse support, trending, and generally making sure Threads continues to grow,” he added.

    Following Threads’s July release, parent company Meta rolled out several updates, including a new search function similar to that on X, formerly known as Twitter.

    However, users soon discovered the new search function blocked access to certain posts related to COVID-19, such as those concerning vaccines and long COVID.

    Users searching for some COVID-related terms were reportedly met with a blank screen and redirected to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

    The Threads logo is displayed on a cell phone in San Anselmo, Calif., on July 5, 2023. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

    “Censorship doesn’t work. Misinfo still gets circulated by code names & other platforms, tech companies should invest in real solutions like moderation/education,” Lucky Tran, director of science communication at Columbia University, said at the time in an X post.

    Another Tech CEO, Michael Robertson, was far more scathing, saying in an X post that Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg “treats users like children.” He called for a boycott of Threads and for people to “embrace” rival platform X.

    According to a later post by Ms. Tran, words such as sex, nude, gore, porn, coronavirus, vaccines, and vaccination are among other blocked words.

    Meta confirmed in a previous statement to The Epoch Times that Threads is blocking users from searching for words that could bring up “sensitive” posts for now, but people would be able to search for keywords such as “COVID” in the future once the company is “confident in the quality of the results.”

    In a follow-up post, Mr. Mosseri promised to look into the timeline for unblocking the banned COVID-19 terms on Threads.

    “Weeks or months, let me look into it and circle back. The reality is that we have lots of important work to do,” he said.

    “The team is moving fast, but we’re not yet where we want to be,” Mr. Mosseri added.

    Meta owns and operates several social media platforms such as Instagram, Facebook, Threads, and WhatsApp.

    Focus on Israel–Hamas War Misinformation

    According to Mr. Mosseri, the primary concern for his team is managing content centered around the Israel–Hamas War.

    “The biggest safety focus right now is managing content responsibly given the war in Israel in Gaza,” he said.

    Terrorist organization Hamas launched an Oct. 7 surprise attack on Israel, killing over 1,400 Israelis, wounding around 3,000, and kidnapping at least 130 others.

    People inspect the remains of a destroyed building in Gaza on Oct. 18, 2023. (Mahmud Hams/AFP via Getty Images)

    The retaliation air strikes on the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip by Israel have killed at least 2,200, and wounded another 8,714.

    Misinformation has been rife as both sides in the conflict, and their supporters, attempt to gain the upper hand in the ongoing propaganda war.

    The Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry claimed recently that at least 500 people were killed in an Oct. 17 blast at a hospital, blaming the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).

    The IDF denied it was responsible, and on Oct. 18, President Joe Biden revealed data collected by the United States Defense Department supports Israel’s claim that it wasn’t responsible.

    Hamas also released a video recently showing a female hostage receiving medical treatment, but a White House spokesperson has since questioned its authenticity.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/19/2023 – 14:10

  • Oil Markets Underestimating The Risk Of A Middle East Blowout
    Oil Markets Underestimating The Risk Of A Middle East Blowout

    Authored by Alex Kimani via OilPrice.com,

    • Commodity experts are now saying the oil markets have underpriced the risk of further escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict.

    • The price response to the escalation in the Middle East tensions has so far been modest.

    • StanChart: Middle East geopolitical risk is currently being significantly under-priced and the current fundamentals alone are enough to justify a complete reversal of this month’s price undershooting.

    Last week, the Israeli government ordered its state-run electricity company to halt power supply to the Gaza Strip days after Palestinian militant group Hamas launched a surprise attack on the country. The Israeli prime minister’s office revealed that the security cabinet has approved several steps to destroy the military and governmental capabilities of Hamas and Islamic Jihad “for many years”, in a war that has seen more than 3,000 Palestinians and about half as many Israelis killed.

    But now there’s a growing risk this could escalate into a regional conflict after Lebanon-based Hezbollah warned that it’s ready to fully enter the war in support of Hamas. Indeed, there are growing fears that Hezbollah may open a new front against Israel at the behest of its leaders and their Iranian backers while Iran has warned of preemptive action against Israel if it goes ahead with a ground offensive.

    And some commodity experts are now saying the oil markets have underpriced this risk, and oil prices could skyrocket if the situation above unfolds. Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have pointed to a medium-term reduction in Iranian oil exports as being the most likely consequence of shifts in the geopolitical landscape. Back in August, we reported that Iran oil exports had hit record highs thanks in large part to the Biden administration opting to look the other way as Tehran boosts production ostensibly in a bid to keep markets well supplied and oil prices low. Related: Can Guyana Avoid The Resource Curse?

    The price response to the escalation in the Middle East tensions has so far been modest; however, the Israel-Gaza war is likely to cause a significant shift in U.S. policy on Iran due to its open support and backing for Hamas. 

    Constraints on Iranian oil exports were eased after the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015 but  tightened again after the U.S. withdrew from the JCPOA during the Trump administration, with output falling below 2 mb/d in 2020 when waivers given to consuming countries were withdrawn. Iran’s oil output and exports have increased sharply under the Biden administration, with production hitting  3 mb/d, including 500,000 b/d in the current year, while exports sit just under 2 mb/d.

    StanChart says that changes in positioning in the oil futures markets have been modest despite a significant increase in volatility. The analysts note that it is not an extreme tail of the distribution as might be expected in a full-blown Middle East crisis, adding that speculative positioning is also not extreme, particularly in Brent. The latest fund manager data shows that prices are about USD 6 per barrel (bbl) lower than in late September, despite no significant loosening in fundamentals. StanChart says that the Middle East geopolitical risk is currently being significantly under-priced and that current fundamentals alone are enough to justify a complete reversal of this month’s price undershooting.

    Oil Demand Exceeds Pre-COVID Peak

    If anything, oil fundamentals have strengthened considerably. According to StanChart, global oil demand has already exceeded the pre-Covid oil demand set in August 2019, averaging 102.33 million barrels per day (mb/d), good for a m/m increase of 1.2 mb/d and a y/y increase of 2.3 mb/d. The analysts have refuted arguments by some Wall Street analysts that high oil prices have already triggered demand destruction.

    A couple of weeks ago, JPMorgan analysts warned that oil demand will decline in the current quarter due to the previous nearly 30% rally in oil prices in the previous quarter.

    ‘‘After reaching our target of $90 in September, our end-year target remains $86 [per barrel]. Moreover, demand restraint from rising oil prices is once again becoming visible in the US, Europe, and some EM countries,” reads the note titled “Demand destruction has begun (again). 

    China and India drove global oil demand growth this year, but China opted to draw on domestic crude inventories in August and September after oil prices surged. There are already signs that consumers have responded by cutting back on fuel consumption,” wrote Natasha Kaneva, head of the global commodities strategy team at JPMorgan.

    That bearish thesis could have some validity considering the mixed crude and distillate trends coming from the U.S.  Last week, U.S. crude oil inventories rose 10.18 mb w/w to 424.24 mb, reducing the deficit below the five-year average by 5.96 mb to 13.90 mb. However, crude oil inventories at WTI’s pricing hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, remained close to the operational minimum, falling 0.32 mb to a 15-month low of 21.77mb. 

    Thankfully, fuel prices have continued falling despite the latest uptick in crude prices. A gallon of gasoline is currently retailing at a national average of $3.575, lower than $3.881 a month ago and $3.870 a year ago while diesel is selling at $4.464 a gallon from $4.575 a month ago and $5.304 a year ago.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/19/2023 – 13:35

  • Digital Dollar Poses "Significant Risks" To Consumer Privacy, Financial System: Fed Governor Admits
    Digital Dollar Poses “Significant Risks” To Consumer Privacy, Financial System: Fed Governor Admits

    Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times,

    The creation of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) presents “significant risks” for the financial system and consumer privacy, says Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman.

    Appearing at a Harvard Law School Program on International Financial Systems roundtable on Oct. 17, Ms. Bowman conceded that the benefits of a digital dollar are uncertain and that there could be “unintended consequences” for the banking sector.

    “The potential benefits of a U.S. CBDC remain unclear, and the introduction of a U.S. CBDC could pose significant risks and tradeoffs for the financial system,” she said in prepared remarks.

    “These risks and tradeoffs include potential unintended consequences for the U.S. banking system and considerable consumer privacy concerns.”

    Ms. Bowman, who is one of seven Federal Reserve Board members overseeing domestic payments systems and banking, averred that she has not come across a “compelling argument” that a CBDC could solve issues surrounding frictions within payment systems, advance financial inclusion, or offer the public access to safe central bank money.

    She did agree that the Fed needs to continue researching the subject and obtain greater insights into a digital dollar’s technical capabilities and risks associated with CBDCs.

    “As the money and payments landscape evolves, I continue to stress the importance of looking ahead and analyzing potential changes that may emerge well into the future,” the Fed official noted. “Given the breadth of activity in this space, I believe that policymakers must specify the problems they are trying to solve, understand the range of alternatives that could address any problems, including policy and technology options, and thoroughly analyze the associated risks and tradeoffs.”

    In July, the central bank launched the FedNow Service, an interbank system for instant payments. Ms. Bowman asserts that this real-time payment service, which allows banks and credit unions to transfer funds instantly for customers, addresses many of the same issues that CBDCs ostensibly need to resolve.

    “It is quite possible that other proposed solutions may address many or all of the problems that a CBDC would address, but in a more effective and efficient way,” she said.

    This is not the first time Ms. Bowman has highlighted various risks by establishing a CBDC.

    In April, she told a Georgetown University event that a digital dollar could pose “significant risks, challenges, and tradeoffs” and potentially be an “impediment” to the public’s “freedom.” Moreover, Fed independence could be undermined if a CBDC results in the “politicization of the payments system and, at its heart, how money is used.”

    “In thinking about the implications of CBDC and privacy, we must also consider the central role that money plays in our daily lives, and the risk that a CBDC would provide not only a window into, but potentially an impediment to, the freedom Americans enjoy in choosing how money and resources are used and invested,” she stated.

    Central Banks and Digital Money

    The Federal Reserve has yet to decide whether to explore further or install a CBDC. Officials are still in the research and experimentation phases of potentially digitizing the greenback, and Chair Jerome Powell has informed lawmakers that the entity is still a long way from submitting a final decision.

    Last year, the New York Fed started a 12-week experiment with several major banks to develop a wholesale CBDC prototype—a digital currency crafted specifically for large-value transactions between financial institutions—and reported that the results “revealed promising applications of blockchain technology” when updating critical payments infrastructure. The regional central bank intended to continually research and develop strategies pertaining to the “future of money and payments from the U.S. perspective.”

    But while the Fed is still slow to exit the starting gate, the European Central Bank (ECB) appears to be accelerating its CBDC efforts.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/19/2023 – 12:55

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Oct 19

Today’s News 19th October 2023

  • Democracy Thrives In Poland
    Democracy Thrives In Poland

    Authored by Grzegorz Adamczyk via Remix News,

    Despite repeated claims from several opposition politicians suggesting the end of democracy in Poland, recent parliamentary elections have proven that democracy is alive and well in the country, with no apparent threats in sight…

    While the Law and Justice (PiS) party secured the most votes, they will not form the next government. The number of seats they fell short by to establish a majority is simply too large, and no miraculous event can change this. Although the opposition, in total, garnered more seats than the ruling party, the Civic Coalition (KO) did not overcome Law and Justice, as Donald Tusk frequently predicted.

    Poland’s conservative ruling Law and Justice party leader, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, gets in a car after voting during parliamentary elections in Warsaw, Poland, Sunday, Oct. 15, 2023. (AP Photo/Michal Dyjuk, File)

    The opposition’s seat count was significantly boosted mainly due to the stellar performance of the Third Way, a result not foreseen by any poll, and a loss in support for the Left and the Confederation.

    Donald Tusk celebrated the election results, saying, “We did it.”

    While it’s true that Tusk had an outstanding personal result, garnering over 538,000 votes in Warsaw, most of the success of the coalition was attributed to Third Way’s performance. Despite Tusk’s claims that there’s “no third way” and the repeated attacks on Third Way and Szymon Hołownia by radical opposition supporters, the party, combined with the Left, secured a majority of seats.

    However, let’s not be under any illusion. It will be challenging for the current opposition parties, who have the majority of seats, to come to a consensus. The differences between Tusk and Zandberg or even between Kosiniak-Kamysz and Hołownia are vast. Still, voters would never forgive them if they didn’t reach an agreement. Moreover, no one is keen on early elections, as politicians are exhausted from a campaign that’s both a significant human and financial effort.

    The success of the Third Way also signals a strong message from many young Poles, tired of the Tusk-Kaczynski rivalry. Catchphrases like “enough of the quarrels” resonated with them. I’ve always maintained that voters deserve respect, even if I disagree with their views, and I’ll never resort to insults. I understand young people’s need to escape from constant disputes, even if it is inherent to democracy. The current opposition needs to realize that the 7,640,854 PiS voters are here to stay, despite Rafał Trzaskowski’s claim that there’s no place for such views in Poland.

    I often say that the favor of voters is unpredictable. This election highlighted that fact with interesting intra-list battles. People from the bottom of the list outperformed those at the top, proving that voters were making more informed choices rather than blindly supporting the list’s first candidate.

    Record voter turnout underscores the continued polarization among Poles and their vision for the country. However, as demonstrated by the elections, democracy in Poland is far from over. The only potential threats are changes to the EU treaties, plans for EU centralization, and catering to the will of the biggest states. Alongside with inevitable societal shifts due to the “voluntary solidarity” with the EU’s migrant relocation mechanism and Russia’s growing imperial ambitions, these issues seemed insignificant to most voters. However, in the coming years, we might realize their importance.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/19/2023 – 02:00

  • Some Call It Conspiracy Theory, Part 1
    Some Call It Conspiracy Theory, Part 1

    Authored by Iain Davis via IainDavis.com,

    There are certain assumptions that are applied to anyone labelled a “conspiracy theorist”—and all of them are fallacies. Indeed, the term “conspiracy theory” is nothing more than a propaganda construct designed to silence debate and censor opinion on a range of subjects. Most particularly, it is used as a pejorative to marginalise and discredit whoever challenges the pronouncements and edicts of the State and of the Establishment—that is, the public and private entities that control the State and that profit from the State.

    Those of us who have legitimate criticisms of government and its institutions and representatives, who are therefore labelled “conspiracy theorists,” face a dilemma. We can embrace the term and attempt to redefine it or we can reject it outright. Either way, it is evident that the people who weaponise the “conspiracy theory” label will continue to use it as long as it serves their propaganda purposes.

    One of the most insidious aspects of the “conspiracy theory” fabrication is that the falsehoods associated with the term have been successfully seeded into the public’s consciousness. Often, propagandists need do no more than slap this label on the targeted opinion and the audience will immediately dismiss that viewpoint as a “lunatic conspiracy theory.” Sadly, this knee-jerk reaction is usually made absent any consideration or even familiarity with the evidence presented by that so-called “lunatic conspiracy theorist.”

    This was the reason why “conspiracy theorist” label was created. The State and its propagandists do not want the public to even be aware of inconvenient evidence, let alone to examine it. The challenging evidence is buried under the “wild conspiracy theory” label, thereby signalling to the unsuspecting public that they should automatically reject all of the offered facts and evidence.

    There are a number of components that collectively form the conspiracy theory canard.

    Let’s break them down.

    • First, we have a group of people who supposedly can be identified as conspiracy theorists.

    • Second, we have the allegation that all conspiracy theorists share an underlying psychological weakness.

    • Third, conspiracy theory is said to threaten democracy by undermining “trust” in democratic institutions.

    • Fourth, conspiracy theorists are purportedly prone to extremism and potential radicalisation.

    • Fifth, conspiracy theory is accused of not being evidence-based.

    According to the legacy media, there’s a link between so-called “conspiracy theory” and the “far right” and “white supremacists.” Guardian columnist George Monbiot, for example, wrote that:

    [. . .] conspiracism is fascism’s fuel. Almost all successful conspiracy theories originate with or land with the far right.

    Apparently, this is a common belief held by people who imagine that “conspiracy theory” exists in the form they have been told it exists. It is also a bold claim from an alleged journalist. There is no evidence to support Monbiot’s assertion.

    Numerous studies have tried to identify the common traits of conspiracy theorists. These studies tend to initially identify their subject cohort simply through opinion surveys. If, for example, someone doesn’t accept the official accounts of 9/11 or the JFK assassination, the researchers label them “conspiracy theorists.”

    Probably the largest demographic study of these alleged “conspiracy theorists” was undertaken by political scientists Joseph Uscinski and Joseph Parent for their 2014 book American Conspiracy Theories. They found that “conspiracy theorists” could not be categorised demographically.

    Ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, employment and economic status and even political beliefs were not indicative. The only firm trait they could isolate was that conspiracy theorists, so-called, tended to be slightly older than the population average—suggesting, perhaps, that scepticism of State narratives increases with life experiences.

    Professor Chris French made this observation, as reported by the BBC in 2019:

    When you actually look at the demographic data, belief in conspiracies cuts across social class, it cuts across gender and it cuts across age. Equally, whether you’re on the left or the right, you’re just as likely to see plots against you.

    This is not to deny that a minority of conspiracy theories are promoted by people on the far right of the political spectrum. Nor that some on the far left don’t advocate other similar theories. A few “conspiracy theories” can be considered “racist” and/or “antisemitic.” But there is no evidence to support the allegation that “conspiracy theorists,” when compared to the general population, are any more or less likely to hold extreme political beliefs or promote extremist narratives.

    George Monbiot is certainly not alone in his views, but his published opinion—namely, that conspiracy theories “originate with or land with the far right”—is complete nonsense. So let’s discard his claim right now as ignorant claptrap.

    George Monbiot – claptrap

    Monbiot’s allusion to “conspiracism” relates to the alleged psychological problems that supposedly lead people to become “conspiracy theorists.” The “conspiracism” theory is a product of the worst kind of junk science. It is primarily based upon the notoriously flaky discipline of experimental psychology.

    One of the seminal papers informing the theory of “conspiracism” is Dead and Alive: Beliefs in Contradictory Conspiracy Theories (Wood, Douglas & Sutton, 2012). The researchers asked their “conspiracy theorist” subjects to rate the plausibility of various alleged conspiracy theories. They used a Likert-scale, where 1 is strongly disagree, 4 is neutral, and 7 is strongly agree. Some of the “theories” the subjects were asked to consider were contradictory.

    For example, they asked the subjects to rate the plausibility of the notions that Princess Diana was murdered and that she faked her own death. Using this methodology, the researchers concluded:

    While it has been known for some time that belief in one conspiracy theory appears to be associated with belief in others, only now do we know that this can even apply to conspiracy theories that are mutually contradictory.

    But the researchers did not ask their subjects to exclude mutually contradictory theories—only to rate the plausibility of each individually. Thus, there was nothing in their reported findings to support the conclusion they unscientifically reached.

    Subsequent research has highlighted how ludicrous their falsely named “scientific conclusion” was. Yet, despite being roundly disproved, the erroneous assertion that conspiracy theorists believe contradictory theories simultaneously is repeated ad nauseam by the legacy media, politicians and academics alike. It forms just one of the groundless truisms spouted by those who spread the “conspiracism” myth.

    One of the most influential scholars—if not the most influential—in the field of conspiracy research is political scientist Joseph Uscinski. Like many other of his peers, he has tried to differentiate between evidence-based knowledge of real or “concrete” conspiracies, such as Iran-Contra or Watergate, and what scientific researchers allege to be the psychologically flawed and evidence-free views held by so-called “conspiracists.”

    Uscinski cites the work of Professor Neil Levy as definitive. In Radically Socialized Knowledge and Conspiracy Theories, Levy stated:

    The typical explanation of an event or process which attracts the label “conspiracy theory” is an explanation that conflicts with the account advanced by the relevant epistemic authorities. [. . .] A conspiracy theory that conflicts with the official story, where the official story is the explanation offered by the (relevant) epistemic authorities, is prima facie unwarranted. [. . .] It is because the relevant epistemic authorities — the distributed network of knowledge claim gatherers and testers that includes engineers and politics professors, security experts and journalists — have no doubts over the validity of the explanation that we accept it.

    Simply put, the scientific definition of “conspiracy theory” is an opinion that conflicts with the official narrative as reported by the “epistemic authorities.” If you question what you are told by the State or by its “official” representatives or by the legacy media, you are a “conspiracy theorist” and, therefore, according to “the Science™,” mentally deranged.

    All related “scientific research” on conspiracism and claimed conspiracy theory starts from the assumption that to question the State, the Establishment or the designated “epistemic authorities” is delusional. As hard as this fact may be for many to accept, the effective working definition of “conspiracy theory” in the scientific literature is “an opinion that questions power.”

    Clearly, this definition is political, not scientific. The supposed underlying psychology of “conspiracism,” which allegedly induces people to engage in “conspiratorial thinking,” is an assumption stemming from the academic’s political bias in favour of the State and its institutions. It has absolutely no scientific validity.

    In his 1949 essay Citizenship and Social Class, sociologist T. H. Marshall examined and defined democratic ideals. He described them as a functioning system of rights. These rights include the right to freedom of thought and expression, including speech, peaceful protest, freedom of religion and belief, equality of justice, equal opportunity under the law, and so on.

    Most of us who live in what we call representative democracies are familiar with these concepts. “Rights” and “freedoms” are often touted by our political leaders, academia and the legacy media as the cornerstones of our polity and culture. The entire purpose of representative democracy, it is alleged, is to empower “we the people” to hold decision-makers to account. “Questioning power” is a foundational democratic ideal.

    If we accept the working scientific definition of “conspiracy theory,” then its inherent questioning of power and overt challenge to authority embodies perhaps the most important democratic principle of all and forms the bedrock of representative democracy. It is not unreasonable to aver that representative democracy cannot possibly exist without “conspiracy theory”—again, as it is defined in the scientific literature. As we can see, the claim that “conspiracy theory” threatens democratic institutions is without merit.

    Representative democracy is not founded on public trust in the State, in its agents or in its representatives. On the contrary, representative democracy is built upon the right of the people to question the State, its agents and its representatives.

    Autocracies and dictatorships demand public “trust.” Democracies do not. In a representative democracy, “trust” must first be earned and, through their actions, State institutions must constantly maintain whatever trust the public originally chose to invest in them. Wherever and whenever that “trust” is no longer warranted, the people who live in a democracy are free to question, and ultimately dissolve, State institutions they don’t trust.

    Trust is not a democratic principle. Questioning power is.

    Consider that, according to State institutions like the United Nations (UN),

    Conspiracy theories cause real harm to people, to their health, and also to their physical safety. They amplify and legitimize misconceptions [. . .] and reinforce stereotypes which can fuel violence and violent extremist ideologies.

    This is a wholly misleading statement. It is disinformation.

    The most violent act imaginable, and the most extreme ideology of all, is war and the all-out commitment to it. Full-scale war is possible only when a State declares it. International war is solely within the purview of one entity: the State. Wars are frequently justified by the State using lies and deception. Furthermore, the ideology of war is unwaveringly promoted by the legacy media on behalf of the State.

    To be clear: the UN alleges that when ordinary men and women from across all sectors of society—representing all races, economic classes and political views—exercise their democratic right to question power, they are expressing opinions that “fuel violence and violent extremist ideologies.”

    For such an extraordinary, apparently anti-democratic allegation to be considered even remotely plausible, it must be based upon irreproachable evidence. Yet, as we shall see, the UN’s claim is not based on any evidence at all.

    In 2016, UN Special Rapporteur Ben Emmerson issued a report to the UN advising its member states on potential policies to counter extremism and terrorism. In his report, Emmerson noted the lack of a clear, agreed-upon definition of “extremism.” He reported that different UN member states defined “extremism” based upon their own political objectives and national interests. There was no single, cogent explanation of the “radicalisation” process. As he put it:

    [M]any programmes directed at radicalisation [are] based on a simplistic understanding of the process as a fixed trajectory to violent extremism with identifiable markers along the way. [. . .] There is no authoritative statistical data on the pathways towards individual radicalisation.

    A year later, in 2017, the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) delivered its report, “Countering Domestic Extremism.” The NAS suggested that domestic “violence and violent extremist ideologies” were the result of a complex interplay between a wide gamut of sociopolitical and economic factors, individual characteristics and life experiences.

    The following year, in July 2018, the NAS view was reinforced by a team of researchers from Deakin University in a peer-reviewed article, “The 3 P’s of Radicalisation.” The Deakin scholars collated and reviewed all the available literature they could find on the process of radicalisation that potentially leads to violent extremism. They identified three main drivers: push, pull, and personal factors.

    Push factors are the structural factors that propel people towards resentment, such as State repression, relative deprivation, poverty, and injustice. Pull factors are factors that make extremism seem attractive, like ideology, group identity and belonging, group incentives, and so on. Personal factors are individual character traits that make a person more or less susceptible to push or pull. These include psychological disorders, personality traits, traumatic life experiences, and so on.

    Presently, the UN maintains that its report, Journey To Extremism in Africa, is “the most extensive study yet on what drives people to violent extremism.” In keeping with all previous research, the Africa report concluded that radicalisation occurs through an intricate combination of influences and life experiences.

    The myriad of contributory factors to the radicalisation process according to the UN’s “most extensive study.”

    Specifically, the report noted:

    We know the drivers and enablers of violent extremism are multiple, complex and context specific, while having religious, ideological, political, economic and historical dimensions. They defy easy analysis, and understanding of the phenomenon remains incomplete.

    In its report called “Prevention of Violent Extremism“—published in June 2023—the UN noted that “deaths from terrorist activity have fallen considerably worldwide in recent years.” Yet, in its promotional literature for the same report, the UN claimed that the “rise of violent extremism profoundly threatens human security.”

    How can the UN have it both ways? How can it be that a “rise of violent extremism” correlates with a considerable reduction in terrorist activity and associated deaths? This makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

    And remember that in the Africa report, which the UN currently calls its “most extensive study yet,” the UN acknowledged that the causes of radicalisation “are multiple, complex and context specific” and “defy easy analysis.”

    This thoroughly refutes the manifest ease with which the UN proclaims, without cause, that so-called conspiracy theories “fuel violence and violent extremist ideologies.” This begs the question: what on Earth does the UN think “violent extremism” is, if not terrorism?

    The bottom line is that, by its own admission, the UN has absolutely no evidence to support any of its “conspiracy theory” assertions. Rather, the UN is simply making up its entire “conspiracism” thesis from whole cloth.

    In reality, so-called “conspiracy theorists” are overwhelmingly ordinary people with legitimate opinions that span a wide range of issues. Their opinions do not lead them to adopt extremist ideologies or to commit violent acts. There is no evidence at all to support this widely promulgated contention.

    Nor are alleged “conspiracy theorists” a unique group of malcontents with psychological problems. The only defining characteristic these people possess is that they exercise their right to question power.

    They do not seek to undermine democracy but, rather, exercise the rights and freedoms that democracy is supposedly based upon. It is this behaviour that the State deems unacceptable and that leads the State and its “epistemic authorities,” including the legacy media, to label them “conspiracy theorists.”

    This observation in no way implies that the conspiracy theorists are always right. Conspiracy theories can be bigoted. They can be ridiculous. They may lack supporting evidence. They may cause offence. And they are sometimes just plain wrong. In other words they are just like any other opinion. But, equally, there is nothing inherently inaccurate or dangerous about every opinion labelled “conspiracy theory.”

    There is only one way to ascertain if an alleged conspiracy theory is valid or not: examine the evidence. Unfortunately, the conspiracy theory label was created specifically to discourage people from looking at the evidence.

    There are countless examples of the conspiracy theory or theorist label being used to hide evidence, obscure facts and deny legitimate concerns.

    In Part 2, we will look at a few of these examples and explore the wider geopolitical context in which the conspiracy theory label is deployed.

    *  *  *

    If you value what Iain does then please consider supporting his work. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/19/2023 – 00:00

  • Insurrection? Pro-Palestinian Protesters Occupy Capitol Building
    Insurrection? Pro-Palestinian Protesters Occupy Capitol Building

    The far-left pro-Palestinian protests continue in the US with activists now occupying the Capitol, accusing lawmakers of having Palestinian blood on their hands. 

    As with most leftist efforts, the first goal is a narrative shift in which the people who triggered the conflict are painted as victims.  The Hamas soldiers who launched terrorist attacks killing thousands of civilians in Israel are dismissed down the memory hole, and now the focus is only on Palestinian tragedy. 

    The most logical decision is for America to stay out of the conflict completely.  However, rabid involvement by leftists on the side of Hamas may actually push a majority of Americans to throw full support behind Israel simply because any cause backed by woke organizations is a cause worth obstructing.  The public will ask themselves:  “When have these people ever been right?” 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The DC event adds insult to injury, considering Democrats have been accusing conservatives of insurrection for the past few years after occupying the Capitol. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    But of course, it’s only insurrection when conservatives do it…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/18/2023 – 23:30

  • The Rise Of China And The Permanence Of Change
    The Rise Of China And The Permanence Of Change

    Authored by Siamak Tundra Naficy via RealClear Wire,

    In the midst of concerns regarding the debacle in Russia, it is important to recognize what still looks to be predominantly an Asian century. While the Western media and audience focus on the horrific crisis in Ukraine and Russia’s brutal invasion, this truth still hangs on the horizon. The United States will inevitably be pulled to prioritize Asia more firmly. The important question then is whether this fact can be managed awkwardly or gracefully.

    China’s exponential growth follows a hard arithmetic, ensuring that regardless of its future trajectory, in terms of scale, it will not revert to a time before the 1980s. The nation is actively pursuing hegemony (or as you prefer—primacy or “leadership”) in Asia, presenting significant implications for the United States and its global footprint. With its status as the largest near-peer rival and the richest challenger the U.S. has ever faced, China’s growth demands a concentrated effort due to the scarcity of both resources and time. Considering the implications of changing power dynamics, it is essential to balance power with goals and assess whether commitments ultimately benefit or hinder the United States.

    As an anthropologist, I am interested in what is particular and local but also in what is true across time and space. America’s alliances worldwide—supported by military bases and shared resources—augment its hard power and reach, but to put it bluntly—they also serve to contain its allies and control regions. NATO, then, exists not solely to counter Russia or formerly, the Soviet Union, but also to ensure stabilization in ways that favor the United States.

    We talk of the permanence of things, like alliances. But alliances can and do shift. The word ‘alliance’ itself has become overused, vague, and means too many things. It is used too often and means little. The lexicon of partnerships, Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs), and Treaty Allies ought to transparently reflect their prescription of commitments during crisis and not be merely descriptive. More often than not, these coalitions have veered and expanded beyond their intended scope.

    Undeniably, the theater of maritime drills, and technological and intelligence sharing confer benefits, but these alone don’t mean unmeasured support. History demonstrates that even superpowers can abandon. For instance, in 1999, despite all its talk of a pan-Slavic identity Russia pragmatically deserted the Serbs in Kosovo. The optimism Ukraine held prior to the Russian invasion exemplify the complexities of relying on assumed alliances. Afterall, while Ukraine was not in NATO, NATO was in Ukraine. NATO’s presence in Ukraine in the past decade was not insignificant.

    So, it’s unfortunate but not particularly surprising if many Ukrainians believe they were led down a primrose path. The recent NATO 2023 summit again was replete with self-aggrandizement, with open-ended assurances to Ukraine. So, though not a big advocate of NATO expansion, it seems to me prudent to favor a more serious presence in say the Baltics—to not leave it to local interpretations of Article 5— such that to attack a NATO state is to attack NATO physically and materially.

    Or consider the case of Saudi Arabia, who when in 2019, was integral to U.S. President Trump’s failed “maximal pressure” campaign against neighboring Iran, found themselves suddenly on the frontlines. An extremely daring and sophisticated attack against two major oil facilities in the Kingdom knocked out half of Saudi Arabia’s oil production for three weeks. Many believe this was a drone attack by Iran. The Saudis expected that as a result of this incident the U.S. would call on the Carter Doctrine and attack Iran. But that is not what Trump had in mind. He made it clear that he did not see this as an attack on the United States. “I’m somebody who would not like to have war,” Trump said at the time.

    This retort sent shockwaves throughout the region and built up into what is called the Baghdad Dialogue in which the Iraqis facilitated diplomacy across the Persian Gulf (as well as diplomacy between the Turks and the Egyptians) that help mend fences. For many years the House of Saud refused diplomatic engagement with Iran. Various efforts by the Iranians to start negotiations with the Saudis had been declined. Part of the reason the Saudis felt that they could decline diplomacy was the belief that the U.S. would have its back—no matter what.

    But, when some states could no longer hide behind American military power, diplomacy—as brokered through China—became the next best option. Surely, the more rapprochements are engineered (by anyone) the better for all stakeholders and populations (the military-industrial complex excepting). Moreover, the more China expands its reach and ventures into new territories, the more resentment it may provoke. The potential emergence of an “ugly Chinese” could be a worse alternative to the “ugly American,” which might ultimately redound to the United States.

    Power Dynamics and the Role of Smaller Powers

    The tail can also start to wag the dog. A kind of reverse leverage can emerge— where “small powers” or “client states” goad their “patrons” to do things that are not in their interest. In their “We Now Know” (1998), International Relations (IR) theorists Richard L. Russel and John Lewis Gaddis write that during the Cold War, both regimes and rebels “learned to manipulate the Americans and Russians by laying on flattery, pledging solidarity, feigning indifference, threatening defection, or even raising the specter of their own collapse and the disastrous results that might flow from it.” We’ve seen this again under a number of different administrations, both republican and democrat—where for example former SecDef Bob Gates warned that the Saudis wanted to “fight Iran to the last American.”

    It is crucial for politicians to avoid overstating the unyielding nature of their support, especially when it might have unintended consequences for other states. NATO states declare guarantees towards Ukraine as if it doesn’t affect other NATO states in a domino fashion. Some will argue that there is benefit to strategic ambiguity. But, even if this helps build some kind of deterrence against rivals, it does little for friends. At the very least, there should be an audit at home to determine what the U.S. is willing to bleed for and what it isn’t.

    The U.S. continues to sell arms to authoritarian states like Saudi Arabia even when it doesn’t produce the things (i.e., democracy, human rights—and/or stability, security) that the U.S. says it wants it to produce. One reason for this is that there is currently little else to discuss with the Saudis—not values or shared ideals of what a stable region might look like. Therefore, weapons become a proxy for an actual relationship.

    Another reason is the profits arms sales bring—historically playing an oversized role in foreign policy. This failure to restrain the military-industrial complex undermines global stability. The U.S. sells weapons to over 100 countries—including countries it sanctions. There are conflicts where both sides are using U.S. arms.

    This profit motive also undermines the idea that foreign policy is guided by a moral compass. Ironically, a principles-guided approach could yield better results. The U.S. should lean towards its strengths vis-à-vis Russia and China. A principled actor guides allies, unafraid that they will move in the direction of Russia or China. After all, arms sales alone don’t guarantee coordinated defense.

    U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, rightfully took a measured and optimistic analysis of the Nordstream pipeline disaster and suggested it as a good opportunity for Europe to wean itself off of Russian gas. However, he was remiss in failing to recognize the U.S.’s need to cut its dependence on authoritarian states. In an increasingly multipolar world, the dynamics of power globally have shifted. We should expect and prepare for states to increasingly act in their self-interest.

    The main aim of U.S. foreign policy should be to avoid a Eurasian super-threat. Not as in a two-headed giant, but two different states—Russia and China—overcoming natural tensions by having a common adversary. If this threat is deigned inevitable, then we had better buckle in for a world of hurt to come. Realists tend to have a hawkish view of the defenses that a state requires, but a cautious view and a restrained finger on the trigger of hard power. Their perspective brings a necessary tonic to a faith-based and expansive view of security, and the unrestrained use of hard power abroad. History suggests that large powers try and maintain their regional spheres, reasonably or not.

    China’s “Marching Westward” strategy aims to rebalance its geostrategy, and confront President Obama’s 2012 “Pivot to East Asia”—relying on land access in the west to solve the riddle of U.S. maritime supremacy in the east. Belt and Road Initiative is a means to that end, and China’s attention to West Asia has only intensified due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and American pressure in the Indo-Pacific and Taiwan.

    As the U.S. confronts the challenges presented by Russia, China, and the shifting global landscape, it must acknowledge the prominence of the Asian century. While the crisis in Ukraine rightfully garners attention, the gravitational pull of Asia on the United States cannot be ignored. Balancing power dynamics, reevaluating the enduring nature of alliances, and considering the perspectives of smaller powers are crucial steps in addressing the complexities of our contemporary world.

    It is crucial to acknowledge and accept the current multipolar world, wherein nations like China— and eventually India and others—will assume a more significant, perhaps even leading, role in diplomacy and conflict resolution. The U.S. should adopt a more agile and flexible approach to adjust to this reality and appreciate the potential benefits it offers, rather than viewing it as only a negative and dangerous development. Particularly in the Middle East, the U.S. must refrain from pursuing the same traditional approach, which has consistently resulted in taking sides and being a part of the problem rather than the solution. Otherwise, we risk a future where countries turn to China for peacemaking and to the U.S. only for warcraft.

    Siamak Tundra Naficy is a senior lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School’s Department of Defense Analysis. An anthropologist with an interdisciplinary approach to social, biological, psychological, and cultural issues, his interests range from the anthropological approach to conflict theory to sacred values, cognitive science, and animal behavior. The views expressed are the author’s and do not reflect those of the Department of Defense, the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Army, or the Naval Postgraduate School.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/18/2023 – 23:20

  • Victoria's Secret Ditches 'Wokeness'; Wants To Make Sexy Great Again
    Victoria’s Secret Ditches ‘Wokeness’; Wants To Make Sexy Great Again

    Victoria’s Secret’s shift towards “woke” trends in fashion in recent years, which included showcasing trans and plus-size models instead of their traditional sexy models, sparked a wave of discontent among customers, resulting in a significant revenue drop, crashing stock price, and Victoria’s Secret Fashion Show ratings hitting rock bottom. 

    The American lingerie chain spent the last several years ‘Bud-Light-ing’ itself with transgender models like Valentina Sampaio and super woke soccer player Megan Rapinoe while abandoning its iconic sexy models.

    Trans model Valentina Sampaio

    Soccer player Megan Rapinoe

    What changed in the last two decades?

    One can only guess who might have pushed ‘wokeness’ on the brand… 

    As consumers ditched Victoria’s Secret, investors panic-dumped shares to record low prices. 

    … because sales plunged a stunning $1.8 billion since 2018 (revenue for its last full fiscal year fell 6.5%, with net income down nearly half). Consumers went elsewhere – maybe there was a conservative brand that took market share.

    Earlier this year, CEO Amy Hauk was booted out of the company amid ‘woke’ controversies. Now CNN reports the brand has given up on out-woking others and wants to ‘Make “Sexiness” Great Again.’ 

    Victoria’s Secret: The Tour ’23, an attempt to revive the runway show format that launched last month fell somewhere in between the personification of male lust of the brand’s aughts-era heyday and the inclusive utopia promoted by its many disruptors.

    But in a presentation to investors in New York last week, it was clear which version of the brand Victoria’s Secret executives see as its future.

    “Sexiness can be inclusive,” said Greg Unis, brand president of Victoria’s Secret and Pink, the company’s sub-brand targeting younger consumers. “Sexiness can celebrate the diverse experiences of our customers and that’s what we’re focused on.”

    Chief executive Martin Waters also disclosed that woke initiatives were not profitable for the company, stating, “Despite everyone’s best endeavours, it’s not been enough to carry the day.”

    This comes as the ESG bubble is imploding. And Larry Fink’s BlackRock has ditched the term ESG. 

    BlackRock has faced intense criticism from Republican lawmakers who accuse the firm of violating its fiduciary duty by putting wokeness ahead of investment returns. 

    BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street hold about 15 and 20% of the outstanding shares of S&P 500 companies and can have enormous direct power in corporate decision-making. 

    Some in corporate America are beginning to realize the challenges ESG poses for business sustainability.

    However, if these companies want to go woke, and then go broke – so be it. There is a parallel economy that is exploding.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/18/2023 – 23:00

  • Menthol Cigarettes And Flavored Cigars To Be Banned By FDA
    Menthol Cigarettes And Flavored Cigars To Be Banned By FDA

    Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is looking to ban menthol cigarettes and flavored cigars due to concerns these tobacco products are harming American youth.

    The FDA submitted the final rule for regulatory review to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) on Friday. “This final rule is a tobacco product standard to prohibit the use of menthol as a characterizing flavor in cigarettes,” according to an OMB website. Legal resource center Law Insider defines the term “characterizing flavor” as meaning “a taste or aroma, other than the taste or aroma of tobacco” that is imparted either prior to or during the use of the tobacco product. Flavored cigars would also be banned under the rule.

    The FDA has long been pushing to ban menthol cigarettes and flavored cigars. Last year, the agency announced it was proposing rules to this effect to “prevent youth initiation [and] significantly reduce tobacco-related disease and death,” according to an April 28 press release.

    Menthol is a flavor additive with a minty taste and aroma that aids in reducing the harshness and irritation of smoking, the agency said. This boosts the appeal for cigarettes and makes the menthol variants popular among youth and young adults. Menthol can also interact with nicotine in the brain, enhancing the nicotine’s addictive effects.

    “The combination of menthol’s flavor, sensory effects, and interaction with nicotine in the brain increases the likelihood that youth who start using menthol cigarettes will progress to regular use. Menthol also makes it more difficult for people to quit smoking,” the FDA said.

    The agency estimated there were 18.5 million menthol cigarette smokers aged 12 and above in the United States in 2018, with “particularly high rates of use by youth, young adults, and African Americans and other racial and ethnic groups.”

    If menthol cigarettes were not available, there would be a 15 percent reduction in smoking within four decades, the agency said citing multiple studies. This would translate into 324,000–654,000 saved lives.

    The FDA expressed hope that once the rule comes into effect, it would reduce the appeal of cigarettes among youth and young adults, thus reducing the chances that nonusers who experiment with menthol cigarettes end up progressing to regular smoking.

    The OMB review is the last step to be completed to finalize the rule.

    Harm to Youngsters

    In an Oct. 16 statement, Harold Wimmer, president of the American Lung Association (ALA), called the FDA rules banning menthol cigarettes and flavored cigars “the most significant actions that the FDA’s Center for Tobacco Products has taken in its 14-year history.”

    “The American Lung Association is eager for these lifesaving rules to be implemented and urges the White House to finalize these rules before the end of the year. The science and data are clear. Ending the sale of menthol cigarettes and flavored cigars will save lives,” it said.

    A display of packs of menthol cigarettes and other tobacco products at a store in San Francisco, Calif., on May 17, 2018. (Jeff Chiu/AP)

    “One study estimates almost one million smokers would quit smoking within 17 months of the end of the sale of menthol cigarettes, including almost a quarter of a million black individuals living in America. After Canada stopped selling menthol cigarettes in 2017, the country saw an increase in quit attempts and cessation among people who smoked menthol cigarettes.”

    The Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids also welcomed the FDA proposal, asking the OMB and the White House to consider expediting the review and issuing final regulations by the end of the year given the “profound, lifesaving benefit” of the rules, according to an Oct. 16 press release.

    Tobacco is the number-one cause of preventable death in the United States, it said. Cheap, flavored cigars are sold in “kid-friendly flavors” like “berry fusion,” “cherry dynamite,” and “iced donut,” the organization stated.

    “These flavored products have flooded the market in recent years and fueled the popularity of cigars with kids.” The group cited the 2022 National Youth Tobacco Survey which showed that cigars are the “second most popular tobacco product” after e-cigarettes among American high school students.

    Crackdown on E-Cigarettes

    Some have argued against the ban. In March last year, the Tax Foundation warned in a report that the federal menthol ban would result in losses for local governments due to the high level of taxation and the large market share of flavored cigarettes.

    Disposable vaping e-cigarette products are displayed in a convenience store in El Segundo, California, on June 23, 2022. (Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images)

    In the United States, excise taxes alone make up 40 percent of the retail price of tobacco products on average, it said. A third of the market is made up of flavored cigarettes.

    “Federal action does not only impact federal revenue, and combined, governments stand to lose more than $6.6 billion in the first full year following prohibition,” the group stated.

    Meanwhile, the FDA is also cracking down on flavored e-cigarettes. Last week, the agency issued denial orders for the marketing of six flavored e-cigarette products being sold under the Vuse Alto brand, including three menthol-flavored ones.

    “Evidence submitted by the applicant did not demonstrate that the menthol- and mixed berry-flavored products provided an added benefit for adults who smoke cigarettes—in terms of complete switching or significant smoking reduction—relative to that of tobacco-flavored products that is sufficient to outweigh the known risks to youth,” the agency said.

    In July, it issued a marketing denial order for a menthol-flavored e-cigarette made by Fontem US. In May, the FDA issued similar orders to 10 companies that collectively marketed around 6,500 flavored e-cigarette and e-liquid products.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/18/2023 – 22:40

  • Bill Browder: The So-Called "Human Rights Activist" Got Rich Himself With Shady Deals
    Bill Browder: The So-Called “Human Rights Activist” Got Rich Himself With Shady Deals

    Authored by Rafael Lutz via VoiceFromRussia.ch,

    Bill Browder managed to rob the Russian state and sacrifice his closest Russian collaborator for it.

    His death, in turn, was abused by the U.S. administration, together with Browder, to create a law that would allow it to take action against any unpopular person worldwide in the name of human rights. A political thriller, of which the general public is unfortunately not being informed honestly in its true dimensions.

    The US investor wants to sanction former Swiss officials for not expropriating funds from Russians. Browder himself is a convicted felon. He helped loot the Russian state in the 1990s. In doing so, he collaborated with business partners who also earned their money through organized crime, various sources say.

    Switzerland’s financial center supports Russian oligarchs – and thus Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine. That is the opinion of Bill Browder. The US investor and multi-billionaire is currently running a veritable campaign against Switzerland. Browder can count on a large network of influential people. He is very well connected with the Western power elites.

    Major Swiss media outlets have offered Browder a platform on several occasions in recent weeks. He has used this stage to launch his attacks on Swiss banks and the judicial system. According to Browder, Bern is today making itself an accomplice of Putin.

    Only recently, he spoke alongside others before the Helsinki Commission, a committee of the US Congress, in which possible sanctions against Switzerland were discussed. There he sharply criticized Switzerland regarding its Ukraine and Russia policy. Now this commission intends to sanction Swiss citizens. It has recently submitted a request to that effect. In its sights are ex-Federal Prosecutor Michael Lauber and two other former federal officials. Browder even demanded that Stefan Blättler, the current Swiss federal prosecutor, should also be sanctioned. However, the Helsinki Commission rejected this demand.

    The Foreign Policy Committee of the Council of States (APK-S) rejected the attacks on August 22. The Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA) is also fighting back. It recently protested the commission’s actions, speaking of “unsubstantiated allegations” that the foreign ministry considers “unacceptable.”

    Browder accuses Swiss officials of corruption in connection with the affair involving Sergei Magnitsky, who died in a Russian prison on Nov. 16, 2009. The inconsistencies in this affair will be discussed in a moment.

    The short version, which Browder has conveyed to the world countless times and which almost all major media have uncritically adopted, is as follows: Sergei Magnitski, who worked as a “lawyer” for Browder, uncovered how corrupt Russian officials enriched themselves and stole 230 million dollars from the state. Browder’s company “Hermitage Capital Management” had served them as a vehicle for this, which they expropriated with forged documents. Because he exposed the scandal, Magnitski later died. Magnitsky blamed the two policemen Pavel Karpov and Artyom Kuznetsov for the crimes. The latter later arrested him and saw to it that he was sent to prison, where he was killed in 2009. So much for Bill Browder’s point of view.

    According to the US investor, Switzerland is also involved in this tax scandal. The reason for this is that some of the money that allegedly corrupt Russians had looted from the state is said to have flowed into UBS and CS accounts and been laundered in this country. This put Browder on the map. In 2011, he filed criminal charges on behalf of his fund company. In the same year, the Office of the Attorney General of Switzerland opened criminal proceedings on suspicion of money laundering. 18 million francs were temporarily seized in connection with the matter. In July 2021, however, the Office of the Attorney General of Switzerland drew a line under the proceedings and closed them.

    “Based on its extensive investigations, the Federal Prosecutor’s Office has determined that there is no substantiated suspicion of a crime that would justify charges in Switzerland,” the Office of the Attorney General of Switzerland attributed in its media release at the time. However, the Office of the Attorney General of Switzerland did have four million francs confiscated – as a “connection between some of the assets seized in Switzerland and the crime committed in Russia could be proven.”

    Since the case was dropped, Browder has been up in arms. Switzerland? In his eyes, a rogue state. The federal prosecutor’s office? A corrupt bunch. In the meantime, the prosecution has denied Browder the status of a private plaintiff. In the course of its investigations, it concluded “that despite the extensive investigations, it could not be proven that the funds that are the subject of the Swiss proceedings originated from a criminal act committed to the detriment of ‘Hermitage Capital’.”

    Browder does not want to accept this. He has filed an appeal with the Federal Court. The ruling is still pending. Against this background, the US investor recently launched a veritable campaign against Switzerland. The reason: In this country, 14 million Swiss francs were paid to “corrupt Russians” in connection with the Magnitski affair, he told the Luzerner Zeitung and other newspapers of the media group CH-Media in an interview on August 14. In it, he sounded the big attack. “Switzerland must finally become clean,” Browder said. He accused the country of not being “reliable”.

    A thorn in Browder’s side is the fact that Switzerland is not moving strictly in line with the U.S. line. In the Ukraine war, which is primarily a proxy war between the U.S. and Russia, he said, Switzerland is too Russia-friendly – especially the local commodities and financial center, where Russian money is stored. “According to the Swiss Bankers Association, up to 200 billion of Russian money is held in Switzerland,” Browder said. But of that, he said, Switzerland has frozen only 7.5 billion. He also accuses Switzerland of not participating in the G7 task force to track down “corrupt Russians.” He also criticizes Swiss weapons for not reaching Ukraine.

    Browder claims to know exactly what is right for Switzerland. He draws a direct line from the dormant assets affair that troubled Switzerland in the 1990s to the present. Literally, “Switzerland also depended on U.S. help to return Nazi looted gold to Jewish families. And Switzerland also depended on U.S. help to close the secret bank accounts of money launderers. Even today, Switzerland stubbornly adheres to its tradition (…). The country now needs to modernize and become part of the civilized world when it comes to financial matters. Obviously, this is not possible without the US.”

    The U.S. investor also received support for his latest attacks mostly from the major Swiss media. Critical distance? No such thing. The journalists here have hardly questioned Browder’s statements so far. On the contrary, individual journalists have uncritically adopted Browder’s arguments as their own. The Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) recently even called him a “human rights activist” – Wikipedia sends its regards. Reason enough to take a closer look at Bill Browder’s past and his contradictory statements.

    The investor who is beyond reproach

    A native of the United States who has taken British citizenship for tax reasons, Browder’s positions are close to those of U.S. neoconservatives who advocate U.S. supremacy in the world.

    For Browder, Putin is “just as much a terrorist as Osama bin Laden.” The U.S. investor also argues for tougher action against China. Otherwise, there is a danger that Xi Jinping will invade Taiwan. The U.S. investor is not lacking in self-confidence: with his anti-Russia campaign, he claims to have uncovered how Russia manipulated the 2016 U.S. presidential election in favor of Donald Trump. At least this is what he claims in his book “Freezing Order.” Meanwhile, it has long been clear that the story of Russian election interference had little to do with reality (see here and here).

    Before Browder made headlines as an investor in Russia – which will be discussed later – he worked for media magnate and multi-billionaire Robert Maxwell in the early 1990s. Maxwell was building an Eastern European investment fund at the time. Browder was responsible for some of Maxwell’s investments and traveled extensively throughout the former communist bloc.

    Maxwell’s business empire collapsed in the early 1990s, however. He was sitting on a mountain of debt. To keep his companies going, Maxwell resorted to fraud. He stole 460 million pounds from the pension fund of the “Maxwell Communications Corporation,” leaving thousands of employees and pensioners penniless. At the time, the BBC called the multi-billionaire the biggest fraudster in British history. Maxwell died mysteriously in November 1991 during a vacation in the Canary Islands.

    “For Browder, working for Maxwell was poison for his career. For a time, no other employer wanted to hire him,” writes Alex Krainer, who has traced Browder’s rise in detail in his book “The Killing of William Browder“.

    Robert Maxwell is the father of Ghislaine Maxwell, the former confidante of Jeffrey Epstein. Epstein, who for years maintained a ring for the sexual exploitation of minors, died in prison in 2019. Ghislaine Maxwell was sentenced to 20 years in prison in 2022 in connection with the Epstein affair.

    After working for Maxwell, Bill Browder finally found a new job in mid-1992 at Salomon Brothers, a scandal-ridden investment bank. The U.S. investor became better known toward the end of the 1990s, when he made a name for himself as an investor during the “robber years” in Russia. In doing so, Browder embarked on a path that was not at all destined for him. Browder’s grandfather, Earl Browder, had been a colorful figure within the Communist Party of the USA. He had run for the U.S. presidential election in 1936 and 1940. Browder’s father, Felix Browder, was a well-known mathematician.

    “My grandfather was the biggest communist in the USA (…). I wanted to become the biggest capitalist in Russia,” Browder told SonntagsBlick on August 20, 2023.

    The U.S. investor came very close to achieving this goal: During the era of President Boris Yeltsin, Browder and his Hermitage Fund were in part the largest foreign investor in Russia. Shortly after his start in Moscow, Browder succeeded in making enormous profits with his fund. Author Krainer attributes:

    “In 1997, the Hermitage Fund achieved a 235 percent gain. This made the fund the best performer in the world that year. Even more impressive, the fund had gained 718 percent since its inception. Its assets under management had grown from an initial $25 million to more than $1 billion.”

    Within a few years, he snatched up assets worth $4 billion. Initially, Browder was also a longtime supporter of President Vladimir Putin, in stark contrast to today. Browder’s fund invested money in Russian companies such as Gazprom. His strategy was to invest money in corrupt companies and then pillory them in the media and in public, thus steering them in a clean direction. As a result, share prices often rose, which in turn benefited Browder and his company.

    Business partners repeatedly operated in illegality

    Browder, equipped with a “clean-cut” image, likes to play the part of a human rights activist. He fearlessly takes up the fight against the autocratic Putin regime, according to the image conveyed in the West. But Browder’s “clean-cut” image has little to do with reality. His rise in Russia was only possible thanks to important supporters from the moneyed elite, who had no fear of contact with organized crime. Among his most important business partners in Russia were Edmond Safra and Beny Steinmetz. Browder’s Hermitage Fund started in the mid-1990s with a “$25 million seed investment from Safra and Steinmetz,” as author Krainer attributes.

    Let us take a brief look at Safra at this point: Edmond Safra was a Sephardic Jew from Beirut with a Brazilian passport. Born in 1932, he was the patriarch of the Safra clan for a long time. He operated out of Geneva; the city he had made the “world capital of Sephardim banking,” as Gian Trepp ascribed in his book “Swiss Connection.” Edmond Safra died under mysterious circumstances in a fire in his penthouse in Monaco in 1999.

    During his lifetime, Safra, whom journalist Bryan Burrough once called the “genius of the banking world,” was considered one of the twenty richest men in the world. Safra was very well connected with Western politicians. His friends included Henry Kissinger, who was U.S. Secretary of State from 1973 to 1977. Several of his banks had been repeatedly involved in dubious deals in the 1990s. Safra’s banks allegedly engaged in money laundering for the Shakarchi Trading Company. Hans W. Kopp, the husband of the first Swiss Federal Councillor Elisabeth Kopp, was also a member of the company’s board of directors at the time, which later proved to be the latter’s undoing.

    According to a U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) investigative report, Mahmouds Shakarchi’s “suspected drug laundering activities” ran through Safra’s Republic National Bank of New York, among other channels.

    Edmond Safra had founded the Trade Development Bank in Calvin City in 1956. In the 1960s, the bank expanded and opened numerous branches around the world. In 1966, Safra also founded a branch in the U.S., the Republic National Bank of New York. In 1999, HSBC bought up parts of the Safra empire – including the Safra Republic Corporation and the Republic New York Corporation, the holding company of the Republic National Bank of New York. It was a purchase that HSBC would later come to regret. Some of the money HSBC took over from the Safra banks was of criminal origin, as financial journalist Gian Trepp noted. In the course of the Swissleaks revelations, journalists revealed that HSBC clients in Geneva had been involved in arms, drug trafficking and terrorist financing.

    Edmond Safra also initially conducted good business with Browder in Russia. The Republic National Bank of New York sold billions of U.S. dollar notes to dozens of corrupt Russian banks in the 1990s. However, many of these banks were fronts and actually served organized crime in Russia. This was revealed by journalist Robert Friedman in 1996. In a 1994 CIA report, ten of the largest Russian banks were described as straw men.

    To this day, the Safra clan is among the richest of the rich. Among the 300 richest people in Switzerland, the Safra family ranked fourth in 2018 with an estimated fortune of 19 to 20 billion Swiss francs.

    Just like Safra, Beny Steinmetz, Browder’s second important business partner in Russia, repeatedly moved in illegality. Steinmetz, whom we will discuss only briefly here, also belongs to the super-rich class. His fortune is estimated at a billion dollars. The Israeli-French commodities and diamond trader owns Beny Steinmetz Group Resources (BSGR), a company active in mining mineral resources in African countries such as Guinea and Sierra Leone, as well as in real estate trading. A Geneva appeals court found Steinmetz guilty of bribing foreign officials in April 2023. Steinmetz was sentenced to three years in prison, of which he must serve 18 months. According to the court, the billionaire bribed politicians in Guinea. He paid Mamadie Touré, the fourth wife of the late Guinean President Lansana Conté, $8.5 million. This gave him mining rights in the Simandou region, according to the court ruling.

    The Magnitski Story: The Contradictions

    Back to Browder: The Russian authorities increasingly disliked Browder’s activities from the early 2000s onward. Browder’s companies were targeted by the judicial authorities. In 2004, they investigated Browder’s fund company on suspicion of tax evasion. In 2005, Browder was forced to leave the country. His visa was revoked at that time.

    The story became interesting in 2009 at the latest, after Magnitski’s death. Now Browder pulled out all the stops and exerted his influence on media and politics in the West. He lobbied for sanctions against Russia – a state that for Browder now embodied all the evil in the world.

    In 2012, he celebrated his first successes. That year, then-U.S. President Barack Obama passed the so-called Magnitsky Act. The law sanctioned Russian citizens who were held responsible for the death of Magnitsky. Later, the law was to be tightened several times and implemented in other Western countries.

    U.S. policy was based on a report by the Russian Human Rights Council. It concluded that eight prison guards beat Magnitsky with rubber sticks on the day he died. As a result, emergency doctors were not allowed to enter his cell for an hour and 18 minutes until he was already dead. The Human Rights Council cited only the U.S. investor as a source for its report.

    The problem is that Browder cannot substantiate many of his statements. This was also revealed by “Der Spiegel” in an investigation – and this news magazine, of all places, is certainly not known for its particularly Russia-friendly reporting. It is true that Browders cannot prove his claim that Magnitsky was murdered. But that didn’t stop him from telling the world this story non-stop over the past few years – including before the Canadian parliament.

    As evidence for his statements, Browder referred to the report of the investigative commission to the German news portal. “Der Spiegel” wrote about it in 2019: “On his website, he also attributes the report of the commission of inquiry as proof that the same officials who incriminated Magnitski ‘deliberately tortured and finally murdered him’. But the document itself lacks any reference to a premeditated killing. The two police officers Karpov and Kuznetsov – alleged masterminds of the murder – do not appear in the Russian original of the commission report. Kuznetsov is mentioned only in an English translation on Browder’s website.”

    Karpov later sued Browder in a London court for defamation. The responsible judge, Justice Simon, formally declared that the British judiciary was not responsible. However, the written reasons for his decision contain some damning sentences for the U.S. investor: Browder was a “storyteller.” He was “not even close to backing up his accusations with facts.”

    “Der Spiegel” also found out in its research that – contrary to what Browder claims – Magnitski did not incriminate the mentioned officials at all. The news site writes about the protocol of the Russian commission report: “Magnitski indeed attributes the names of the two investigators almost 30 times and describes their role in a search. However, at no point does he make a specific accusation against them personally. In a second transcript of a statement made on October 7, Karpov and Kuznetsov are not mentioned at all. Moreover, it is clear from the form of the first document that Magnitsky did not make the statements entirely of his own free will, but as a witness in a trial.”

    Magnitski was a “witness in a case” because the Russian authorities – as already mentioned – were investigating Browder’s fund company on suspicion of tax evasion. Magnitski was not Browder’s “lawyer”, but had been working for him for years as an accountant.

    Andrei Nekrasov also drew attention to these facts and the contradictory statements of Browder. The director had made the film “The Magnitski Act – Behind The Scenes” in 2017. Nekrasov is a Putin critic who had initially believed Browder. But he noticed: the Browder story has numerous gaps and contradictions. The director, who has studied the original documents from Russian, says, “The investigators questioned Magnitsky because he was Browder’s accountant.” Nekrasov likewise stresses that Magnitsky did not accuse the police officers. The problem with the Browder story against this background is simply that “Magnitski’s accusation against Karpov forms the basis for the Browder story,” Nekrasov says. But this accusation is based on a fiction of Browder. Without it, the house of cards would collapse.

    In his film, Nekrasov also spoke with Magnitsky’s mother. She doubts – unlike Browder – that her son was deliberately killed. “Were they trying to kill him? I don’t know.” She criticized the deplorable prison conditions. These would certainly have led to the death of her son. She also explains the harsh conditions with the proceedings that were going on against Browder’s companies at the time: “They were trying to get him (Magnitski, editor’s note) to plead guilty or incriminate Bill (Browder, editor’s note).”

    Despite obvious contradictions and gaps in Browder’s narrative, the U.S. investor has succeeded in convincing large sections of Western politicians of his fight for “justice”. Browder also won over the Council of Europe with his “story.” Former Council of Europe member Andreas Gross relied mainly on Browder’s sources in his widely acclaimed report on the Magnitski affair. The former Swiss Social Democratic National Councilor wrote the report in June 2013 on behalf of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. “The documents we have are all from Browder’s sources. We always had to use translations from Browder’s office because I don’t read Russian myself,” Gross explained in an interview with Nekrasov. Later, in a letter to the editor for the FAZ, Gross rejected the accusation of one-sidedness. However, he could not provide any evidence for his statement. The FAZ, in turn, refused to print a rebuttal by Nekrasov.

    In recent years, politicians and media representatives have repeatedly referred to the report. In each case, they conveyed the image of Browder as a brave “human rights activist” fighting against the corrupt Russian regime.

    U.S. Judge William H. Pauley concluded that the Gross report suffered from a “lack of trustworthiness.” It was “full of witness statements that (…) sympathized with Magnitski and Browder.” Some of them, according to the judge, were paid by Hermitage.

    In addition to the Swiss banks mentioned above, Browder also accused other companies in other countries of stealing part of the $230 million. Among them was the company Prevezon. The owner of the company defended himself against Browder in court. In the course of the trial, Judge Pauley had made the above statements. Browder also admitted to Prevezon lawyer Mark Cymrot that Magnitski was not a lawyer at all and did not have a law degree.

    What is striking is that Browder has repeatedly found it difficult to convince judges of his arguments in the courts. The companies Glendora and Kone Holdings Ltd, subsidiaries of Browder’s Hermitage, sued in Russia, among other places, in connection with the tax scandal. Unsuccessfully. The court rejected the application of Glendora and Kone Holdings Ltd.

    The reasoning was that Browder’s companies had never legally sued for the alleged theft. This view is shared by Nekrasov. According to the director, Glendora and Kone Holdings Ltd. only objected to the fact that Browder’s companies’ power of attorney transfers did not include certification information. The corporate overwrites themselves did not challenge Browder’s companies. Nor had any complaints been made about forgeries. This again contradicts Browder’s public statements. He had consistently claimed that corrupt Russian officials had signed his companies over to new owners through forged documents and then stole money. (For the full story, see also the swissinfo report. Red.)

    It is also important to know that in December 2015, the Russian Prosecutor General Yuri Chaika publicly accused Browder. He accused him of having committed the denounced fraud of 230 million US dollars himself. Chaika also accused Browder of being responsible for the deaths of Octai Gasanov, Valery Kurochkin and Sergei Korobeinikov. All three of these individuals were Russian citizens who had been suspects in the Magnitsky affair. They all died between 2007 and 2008, and since then Russian authorities have repeatedly investigated the matter.

    According to the Prosecutor General’s Office (this link is blocked in some countries, ed.) in Russia, Browder is the main suspect in the above deaths. According to investigators, there is a “high probability” that the named individuals, as well as Magnitsky, were poisoned. Russian prosecutors believe that all four were killed with a rare water-soluble aluminum compound. A senior official in the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office said it was “very likely that they were killed to get rid of accomplices who could give incriminating testimony against Browder” (see also here).

    Russian President Vladimir Putin called Browder a “serial killer.” According to Putin, Browder also used the assets he looted in Russia to make large campaign donations to Hillary Clinton, among other things. In 2017, a Russian court sentenced Browder to nine years in prison for tax evasion.

    Russian authorities repeatedly tried to have Browder extradited. They fail, however, because Browder can count on powerful supporters in the West. Several times they demanded Browder’s arrest through Interpol. On May 30, 2018, Browder was arrested in Spain at Russia’s request, but was released shortly thereafter.

    Journalists embraced Browder story

    Major media have hardly picked up on the numerous inconsistencies in the Browder narrative. Journalists have also hardly addressed Browder’s rise and his numerous acquaintances with highly questionable personalities from the world of “big business”. The aforementioned major Swiss media are no exception. Internationally influential journalists also let themselves be sucked in by Browder.

    The U.S. investor can count on a whole armada of journalists and politicians who willingly convey his story to the inclined public. Influential journalists like Bill Alpert and Roman Anin worked hand in hand with Browder and adopted his view of things. Both published lengthy reports on the Magnitsky story – Alpert in the Barrons newspaper, Anin in Novaya Gazeta. “They worked with our team,” Browder told Attorney Mark Cymrot, who defended Prevezon in the case against Browder.

    New York Times journalists won the Pulitzer Prize for their justice reporting from Russia – including on Magnitsky. The Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) also worked with Browder. In 2015, the OCCRP even received the first-ever “Sergei Magnitsky Human Rights Award” for “outstanding investigative journalism.” The award was given for an article entitled “Following the Magnitsky Money.” The authors of the text were Mihai Munteanu of the OCCRP and the two journalists mentioned above, Bill Alpert and Roman Anin. They all based their research exclusively on Browder’s sources.

    The OCCRP is supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the U.S. Department of State, the Soros Open Society Foundations (OSF), the Rockefeller Brothers Trust, the Skoll Foundation, and the German Marshall Fund, among others.

    In Europe, Browder is supported by anti-Russian publicist Marieluise Beck, among others. Beck, a former member of the Green Party’s Bundestag, co-founded the Center for Liberal Modernity (LibMod) with her husband Ralf Fücks. The think tank is known for its anti-Russian positions. In June 2023, Fücks argued for regime change in Moscow in an article for Der Spiegel.

    Browder is less squeamish about media professionals who think for themselves. The U.S. investor fights them. For example, Browder pulled out all the stops to censor the aforementioned film by Nekrasov. A planned screening before the European Parliament was canceled at the last minute after Browder’s lawyers threatened legal action.

    More to come…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/18/2023 – 22:00

  • Robo-Takeover: Amazon Tests Humanoid Robot In Fulfillment Center
    Robo-Takeover: Amazon Tests Humanoid Robot In Fulfillment Center

    Amazon has introduced two new robots to speed up deliveries, raising concerns among fulfillment center workers that the e-commerce giant might eventually reduce its workforce.

    In a blog post on Wednesday, Amazon said its robotics team will begin testing a bipedal robot named “Digit” at a site just south of Seattle. 

    “Digit can move, grasp, and handle items in spaces and corners of warehouses in novel ways. Its size and shape are well suited for buildings that are designed for humans, and we believe that there is a big opportunity to scale a mobile manipulator solution, such as Digit, which can work collaboratively with employees,” Amazon said. 

    Amazon explained Digit will “help employees with tote recycling, a highly repetitive process of picking up and moving empty totes once inventory has been completely picked out of them.” 

    In addition to Digit, Amazon revealed Sequoia, a new robotic system to help fulfill customer orders faster, already operational at a Texas fulfillment center. 

    “Sequoia will help us delight customers with greater speed and increased accuracy for delivery estimates, while also improving employee safety at our facilities,” Amazon said, adding it will “identify and store inventory we receive at our fulfillment centers up to 75% faster than we can today.” 

    It also “reduces the time it takes to process an order through a fulfillment center by up to 25%, which improves our shipping predictability and increases the number of goods we can offer for Same-Day or Next-Day shipping,” the e-commerce giant added. 

    Amazon said it has more than “750,000 robots working collaboratively with our employees, taking on highly repetitive tasks and freeing employees up to better deliver for our customers.”

    At some point, Amazon will realize its robot workforce can do a better job fulfilling orders than humans because robots don’t get sick, take breaks, complain, strike, or waste time watching TikTok videos on their smartphones. 

    We’ve penned plenty of notes over the years, informing readers about the coming massive layoff wave corporations will have to unleash due to AI. Godman’s Jan Hatzius suggested in a note earlier this year, “Using data on occupational tasks in both the US and Europe, we find that roughly two-thirds of current jobs are exposed to some degree of AI automation, and that generative AI could substitute up to one-fourth of current work. Extrapolating our estimates globally suggests that generative AI could expose the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs to automation” as up to “two thirds of occupations could be partially automated by AI.”

    … and more recently, younger folk in the labor market are beginning to realize their days are numbered as AI takes their jobs. 

    For more insight into the rapidly evolving job landscape, Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu and Sabrina Lam – using data from MSCI – have ranked the industries where AI-driven automation will displace the most workers. 

    Now’s the time to evaluate your job and see how automation will impact your industry. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/18/2023 – 21:40

  • US Ally Qatar Shielding Hamas Terrorists After Israel Attack: Expert
    US Ally Qatar Shielding Hamas Terrorists After Israel Attack: Expert

    Authored by Andrew Thornebrooke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A key U.S. ally in the Middle East is also one of the top financial and political backers of the Hamas terrorist organization. That relationship could now undermine the U.S.-Israel alliance and peace in the Middle East more broadly, according to one expert.

    Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani (R) and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken attend a meeting in Doha on Oct. 13, 2023. Mr. Blinken began on Oct. 12 a tour of Arab capitals as he seeks to build pressure on Hamas while Israel readies a likely massive offensive on the Gaza Strip following the militants’ attacks. (Jacquelyn Martin/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

    Qatar provides financial and diplomatic support to numerous terrorist groups and state sponsors of terror, including Hamas and Iran.

    Now, the authoritarian nation is assisting the Hamas terrorist organization to maintain its control over the Gaza Strip, according to Asher Fredman, director for Israel at the Abraham Accords Peace Institute think tank.

    “Qatar is a key supporter of Hamas, housing Hamas offices and senior leaders in Doha, and providing Hamas with funds that enable it to maintain its control over Gaza,” Mr. Asher told The Epoch Times.

    Mr. Asher added that while Iran is Hamas’s primary patron for military support and training, Qatar is its go-to for spreading anti-Israel propaganda. This work, he said, is primarily done through Al Jazeera, a media network funded by the Qatari government.

    “Through the Al Jazeera network, Qatar spreads narratives that demonize and delegitimize Israel, and justify terrorism, thereby supporting Hamas in its efforts,” Mr. Asher said.

    Qatar Shielding Terrorists

    Qatar has shielded numerous key leaders of the Hamas over the decades.

    Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s top political leader, currently lives a life of relative luxury in the Qatari capital of Doha. From there, he and several other members of Hamas reportedly publicly celebrated the mass murder, torture, and rape of Israeli civilians on Oct. 7.

    Qatar’s authoritarian government has consistently refused to arrest or hold Hamas leadership accountable for its crimes.

    Instead, in the aftermath of Hamas’s assault on Israel this month, Qatar offered to mediate between Israel and the terrorist organization.

    Mr. Asher said the United States should, therefore, use its clout with Qatar to bring about the unconditional release of hostages taken by Hamas and bring the organization’s leadership to justice.

    “No Hamas leader anywhere should be immune from Israel’s response,” Mr. Asher said.

    “The U.S. should demand that Qatar use this leverage to bring about the unconditional release of the hostages, in line with international law. If Qatar refuses, the U.S. should absolutely reevaluate its alliance and the preferred status it gives to Qatar.”

    Pulling Back From Qatar No Easy Task

    Reevaluating its relationship with Qatar is no easy task for the United States.

    The country is home to the United States’ largest military base in the Middle East and has long been a centerpiece in the nation’s regional strategy.

    Moreover, the Biden administration has done more than previous governments to foster that relationship.

    The Biden administration formally designated Qatar as a major non-NATO ally last year, for what President Joe Biden described as Qatari assistance during the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and “maintaining stability in Gaza.”

    “Qatar is a good friend and reliable and capable partner,” President Joe Biden said at the time.

    Despite its efforts to prop up terrorist groups throughout the region, Mr. Asher said, Qatar’s influence is broadly understood for what it is throughout the Middle East.

    As such, other regional powers were unlikely to grow warmer with either Qatar or the terrorist organizations it shelters.

    “Arab leaders understand that Hamas, a radical ISIS-like terror group sponsored by Iran, is a threat to their vision of a peaceful and prosperous Middle East and an obstacle to Israel-Palestinian peace. Eliminating Hamas, therefore, is ultimately in their interest,” Mr. Asher said.

    “The U.S. and all enlightened countries must put massive pressure on countries with leverage over Hamas—such as Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt—to demand that Hamas release its hostages immediately.”

    The State Department declined to clarify the scope of the United States’ cooperation with Qatar during the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.

    A State Department official instead referred The Epoch Times to a readout of the Oct. 7 meeting between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Qatar’s prime minister and foreign minister. That readout said, “The two agreed to remain closely coordinated.”

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/18/2023 – 21:20

  • NYC Democrat Sponsors Bill Requiring Background Checks For 3D Printers
    NYC Democrat Sponsors Bill Requiring Background Checks For 3D Printers

    A Democratic lawmaker in New York City has submitted a bill to the New York State Assembly requiring anyone to undergo a criminal history background check with the government before purchasing a 3D printer.

    Sponsored by Democratic Assemblymember Jenifer Rajkumar, representing Queens neighborhoods of Glendale, Ozone Park, Richmond Hill, Ridgewood, and Woodhaven, bill A8132 would expand background checks for any “three-dimensional printer sold in this state, which is capable of printing a firearm or any components of a firearm.” This means any store selling 3D printers must conduct a background check on customers. 

    According to the bill’s text, the commissioner of criminal justice services will ensure the customer does not have a felony or serious offense or outstanding warrant of arrest that would force state officials to deny the purchase of the 3D printer. The vetting process could take upwards of 15 days. 

    The bill is designed by Democrats who continue to wage war on the Second Amendment and say the proliferation of violent crime across major metro areas, such as NYC, is directly linked to guns. But these ignorant lawmakers fail to mention the latest surge in violent crime is due to failed progressive policies, such as ‘defunding the police’ and open southern borders. 

    “In their craze to eliminate the Second Amendment, there appears to be no limit to what gun control—or in this case 3D printer control—New York state politicians will consider. The New York state legislature just needs to accept that the Bill of Rights protects the right to keep and bear arms from the tyranny they so badly want to enact,” Aidan Johnston, Director of Federal Affairs, Gun Owners of America, told us. 

    Bill A8132 remains in the committee stage and may not even reach a floor vote, much less be enacted into law. However, if passed, the days of walking into a Midtown Manhattan Best Buy and purchasing a 3D printer in minutes would be over. 

    Yet this is more incompetence from Democrats who have no limit to what gun control is and will stop at nothing to ban firearms from law-abiding citizens. Remember, last month, the New Mexico governor tried to suspend the right to carry guns in public under an emergency health order. 

    Furthermore, progressives have transformed NYC, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago, Portland, Baltimore, Detroit, and many other metro areas into crime-ridden hellholes. Still, these rogue politicians that cater to a ‘fringe’ minority instead of the majority wage war on law-abiding citizens while only emboldening criminals.  

    Why is this? 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/18/2023 – 21:00

  • World War III Began With The Demise Of The Gold Standard
    World War III Began With The Demise Of The Gold Standard

    Authored by Mark Jeftovic via DollarCollapse.com,

    Sound Money Makes For Short Wars

    One of the longest and most stable monetary regimes from the Early Modern Era onward was the British Pound on the classical gold standard. It lasted about 250 years, from mid-17th century up until the outbreak of WWI. According to the late Ferdinand Lips, in his seminal work Gold Wars, if you index the purchasing power of the British pound vs gold starting at a value of 100 in 1664 , the reading would have been 92 by 1914.   (There was one period, during the Napoleonic Wars when the Bank of England suspended convertibility, and that index would have blown out to 180, and then reverted after the BoE went back onto the gold standard in 1821).

    In other words, over 250 years, the purchasing power of the British pound was not only stable, it had actually increased a little on the eve of The Great War.

    The Classical Gold Standard Lasted 250 Years. So what happened?

    Lips goes on to note:

    By 1900, approximately fifty countries were on a gold standard. including all industrialized nations. The interesting fact is that the modern gold standard was not planned at an international conference, nor was it invented by some genius. It came by itself, naturally and based on experience. The United Kingdom went on a gold standard against the intention of its government. Only much later did laws turn an operative gold standard into an officially sanctioned gold standard.

    We would do well to remember this, whenever pundits and the financial clerisy deigns to inform us that monetary systems must be dictated from above and governed from the center. Not so, in fact when that happens, society puts itself at the mercy of a technocratic central planners who are largely detached reality and insulated from the consequences of their actions.

    “In 1914, at the beginning of World War 1, the gold standard was thrown overboard within a few weekends. In order to finance wars, the world resorted to deficit spending and paper money. Had the gold standard not been given up, the war would not have lasted more than a few months. Instead, it lasted more than four years and ruined most of the major economies in the world and left millions dead in its wake.”

    Aside from making the case for sound money which I’m sure many of us reading have already internalized, Gold Wars lays out, era by era, the machinations of central banks, governments, even bullion banks and forward selling miners who were waging open, and covert war against sound money.

    However it would be a mistake to assume that the Gold Wars were confined to monetary matters.

    The Gold Wars, were everything.

    Not Three World Wars: Just One Forever War

    We all know the conspiracy theory around Albert Pike and his coven of Freemasons who meticulously plotted and planned Three World Wars that would ravage humanity throughout the twentieth and twenty-first centuries before culminating in a one world government of Luciferian Marxism (except that it probably isn’t really true).

    Since the Russian invasion of the Ukraine in early 2022, it’s been speculated that future historians may look back on that event as the beginning of WWIII.

    I have privately wondered (wrote it up in the latest Bitcoin Capitalist), whether the cascading military coups throughout the Central African Franc nations were the slow opening of a second front in what is becoming a global conflict. As the ruling, French-aligned governments are being deposed, in Niger, Ghana, Central African Republic and Burkina Faso (eight coups in the past two years, so far), Russian military advisors are appearing on scene, coaching the generals. Meanwhile China is ready with infrastructure incentives and loans.

    That front isn’t hot – yet – but it’s, “War By Other Means”, to quote the Robert Blackwell & Jennifer Harris book by that title…

    “Today, nations increasingly carry out geopolitical combat through economic means. Policies governing everything from trade and investment to energy and exchange rates are wielded as tools to win diplomatic allies, punish adversaries, and coerce those in between.”

    Now with this mess in the Middle East, it feels like we’re at that point where this could escalate, draw in the great powers and then we will unambiguously be embroiled in another global conflict.

    David Stockman once told me that he viewed World War 1 and World War 2 as the same contiguous war. Could this be seen as a continuation? (At the time, some realized that the Treaty of Versailles had baked in “another war within 20 years”, and William Guy Carr’s channeling of the ole Pike “Three World Wars” conspiracy theory may have been a simple realization that putting Israel where they did would invariably lead to problems).

    The common thread from a sound money perspective is that none of it would be possible without the ability to print value ex nihilo. Fiat currency is a monumental fiction, one that can asset strip the productive segments of the economy, hollow out the middle class, while enriching the Cantillionaire class, the military-industrial complex and the Deep State.

    Reading Gold Wars provides clarity around the role of sound money: in rational governance and in providing the basis for harmonious relations among humanity.

    Where sound money makes for short wars, fiat money makes for a Forever War, which Lips calls, “The Gold War”.

    That war, until now, has been a most effective and ruthless manner of enslaving whole populations while enriching the elite. If there is a far-reaching, multi-generational global conspiracy – it is one that brainwashes the masses into trading their time, wealth and property for meaningless chits backed by nothing. Who needs global Communism?

    Lips cites, anonymously, “a former Private Banker, Security Analyst, Director of Gold Mining Companies” (Lips was rumoured to be the cryptic gold commentor “Friend of Another”, and here he may be citing the equally mysterious “Another” – somewhat presaging the anonymity of Satoshi Nakamoto in the coming era)

    “The Gold War is nothing else than a Third World War. It is not only a most unnecessary but the most destructive of all wars.

    World War III may have begun with the demise of the classic gold standard of the 19th century.

    I contend that WWI lasted as long as it did because the gold standard was abandoned. Deficit financing made it possible for it to last over four years, destroying capital wealth, a rich cultural heritage and unnecessarily killing millions of young soldiers and innocent people.

    It goes beyond unnecessary carnage and destruction in The Great War:

    If WWI had lasted only six months, currencies would not have been destroyed. There would have been no Versailles Treaty and no German hyperinflation. The little understood Genoa Convention of 1922 was largely responsible for the boom of the 1920s and the crash of 1929 leading to the crisis of the 1930s.

    Without the mishandling of gold, there would never have been a Hitler. Neither would there have been a Bolshevik take-over by the likes of a Lenin, nor would Russia have had to endure a Stalin with even more millions of innocents killed. There would never have been a WWII.

    Whoever this guy is, he continued to connect the dots from abandoning the gold standard in 1914, to the inflationary 70’s the oil crisis that happened at the same time and into the future:

    “[The] approaching oil and energy crises of the twenty-first century, and the future derivatives crisis..are all primarily monetary crises… because the world disregarded gold money”

    In the Epilogue to Gold Wars, Lips takes stock, remarking that despite all the misery the fiat system and the unrestrained expansion of paper money wrought, there would be a generational opportunity to amass near-dynastic wealth when the world – much like Great Britain in the seventeenth century, reverts to a sound-money system over the objections of the world’s governments.

    “It has happened any number of times in history that the gold price took off: never ever to come down to the level it has started from.”

    Gold was trading at $270/oz when Gold Wars was published. It has since posted an all-time-high near 10X that amount, and people still look upon it with derision.

    One thing is for certain: if we were on a gold (or Bitcoin) standard today, or in the future: we would not be able to go on funding a hot wars on open-ended terms, and we wouldn’t be in such a rush to ignite a few more flashpoints around the world.

    *  *  *

    Sign up to the DollarCollapse mailing list and get the bestselling investment book Nobody Knows Anything, free (a $25 value). Follow us on Twitter here, or like us on Facebook here.

    You can pick up a copy of Gold Wars on Amazon (affiliate link).

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/18/2023 – 20:40

  • HSBC Restricts Employee Texting On Work Phones As Private Messaging Probe Escalates
    HSBC Restricts Employee Texting On Work Phones As Private Messaging Probe Escalates

    HSBC Holdings Plc has restricted employees from sending text messages on their company-issued smartphones, a move stemming from regulatory probes into the financial industry’s use of unofficial communications like WhatsApp, personal texts, or email to conduct business. This comes five months after HSBC paid tens of millions of dollars to settle a Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission probe over unauthorized WhatsApp use among employees. 

    Bloomberg spoke with people in the know who said HSBC is disabling the texting function on work phones for all employees. They said employees have already been barred from using WhatsApp. 

    “Banks use a wide range of approved channels to communicate in compliance with regulatory obligations,” a spokesperson for the bank said.

    The spokesperson continued, “HSBC, like many other banks, reviews and adjusts functionality on its corporate devices as needed.”

    However, according to another person, not all employees will be banned from texting on work phones. They said a small pool of workers in regulated roles will still be able to text where activity is archived.

    In mid-May, HSBC paid CFTC $30 million and the SEC another $15 million over its failure to monitor employees’ communications on unauthorized messaging apps. 

    Data from Bloomberg shows Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Barclays, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, and 18 other banks have shelled out $2.5 billion to the SEC and CFTC for violating recordkeeping rules

    In recent months, the SEC fined Wells Fargo, BNP Paribas, Societe General, and Mizuho for “widespread and longstanding failures by the firms and their employees to maintain and preserve electronic communications.”

    Reuters said in a separate report that the latest probe into Wall Street’s private messages is focused on a dozen investment companies:

    The firms include Carlyle Group, Apollo Global Management, KKR & Co., TPG, and Blackstone, according to three people with direct knowledge of the matter, as well as some hedge funds, including Citadel, said a different person with direct knowledge. 

    The executives gave their personal phones and other devices to their employers or lawyers to be copied, and messages discussing business have been handed to the SEC, three people said.

    That is in contrast to the broker-dealer probes. In those cases, the SEC asked companies to review staff messages and report to the agency how many discussed work. SEC staff reviewed only a sample of messages themselves, according to three sources with knowledge of the previous investigations. 

    The sources spoke on the condition of anonymity because SEC investigations are confidential. 

    At least 16 firms including Carlyle, Apollo, KKR, TPG, and Blackstone, have disclosed that the SEC is probing their communications. The firms did not provide further details and did not comment for this story. A spokesperson for Citadel declined to comment.

    Monitoring employee communications has been challenging for Wall Street’s compliance departments for years because of the proliferation of mobile-messaging apps and remote work. 

     

     

     

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/18/2023 – 20:20

  • FDA Finds 'Signal' For Seizures Among COVID-19 Vaccinated Toddlers
    FDA Finds ‘Signal’ For Seizures Among COVID-19 Vaccinated Toddlers

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A safety signal of seizures for young children following COVID-19 vaccination has been detected by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

    The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in White Oak, Md., on June 5, 2023. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

    Seizures/convulsions “met the statistical threshold for a signal” in children aged 2 to 4 following receipt of a Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine and children aged 2 to 5 following receipt of a Moderna COVID-19 vaccine, researchers with the FDA and three large healthcare companies said in a new preprint study.

    A safety signal is a sign that a health condition may be caused by vaccination, but further research is required to verify a link.

    The data came from three health claims databases run by Optum, Carelon Research, and CVS Health, supplemented with vaccination information from state and local systems. The health claims databases are part of the FDA’s Biologics Effectiveness and Safety System, a drug safety monitoring system.

    Researchers looked at 15 health conditions following vaccination entered in the commercial databases and compared rates among children aged 6 months old to 17 years old to background rates from 2019, 2020, or both.

    Overall, 72 cases of seizures/convulsions were recorded within seven days of a shot among toddlers and other young children. Most happened within three days of a shot.

    When stratifying the data by dose, the researchers found signals for dose one and dose two for Pfizer’s shot in two of the three databases in children aged 2 to 4. They also found a signal following dose two of Moderna’s shot in children aged two to five.

    The signal for seizures/convulsions for the young children “has not been previously reported for this age group in active surveillance studies of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines,” the researchers said, referring to the Pfizer and Moderna shots.

    There are reports of seizures and convulsions after COVID-19 vaccination among children in the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System, the researchers noted. Though anybody can lodge reports with the system, most are made by health care professionals.

    Another five convulsions were reported after Pfizer vaccination in Pfizer’s clinical trial.

    The research did not cover the bivalent COVID-19 vaccines, which were introduced for some populations in 2022 and completely replaced the old vaccines in April, or the newest versions of the vaccines that were rolled out in September. It’s not clear when the signal was first detected. The FDA and Patricia Lloyd, an FDA statistician who is the study’s corresponding author, did not respond to requests for comment. Pfizer and Moderna did not return inquiries.

    Caution Warranted: Researchers

    The researchers said the signal “should be interpreted with caution and further investigated in a more robust epidemiological study.”

    That’s partly because the signal disappeared when changing background rate years.

    The signal was detected when comparing rates with background rates from 2020. But when using background rates from 2022, which were about 2.3 times higher, a signal was not detected.

    The higher number of cases in 2022 may stem from an increased incidence of respiratory infections such as influenza, the researchers posited.

    The case count may have also included seizures “unrelated to vaccination,” the researchers said.

    Similar to previously analyzed data from the same system, the researchers also detected a signal for heart inflammation and a related condition, or myocarditis and pericarditis, for children aged 12 to 17. Because that signal has been known since 2021, researchers did not attempt to further explore it.

    No other signals were detected.

    Strengths of the study include the population covered by the databases being large and geographically diverse. Limitations include a lack of control of confounding factors.

    Stroke Risk in Elderly

    The FDA and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in January announced they detected a signal for ischemic stroke for people aged 65 or older following receipt of Pfizer’s bivalent vaccine. Ischemic stroke is a type of stroke caused by blood clotting.

    In another preprint paper published on Oct. 15, FDA researchers said they analyzed Medicare data to estimate the risk of stroke after bivalent vaccination.

    They included Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 or older who received a bivalent shot or an influenza vaccine and suffered stroke, except for stroke cases deemed to have been caused by something other than a COVID-19 shot.

    The primary analysis did not identify an increased risk of stroke, but stratifying the population by age showed an increased risk after Pfizer vaccination for people aged 85 or older of non-hemorrhagic stroke and for non-hemorrhagic stroke/transient ischemic attack. An increased risk was also found for Moderna recipients aged 65 to 74 for non-hemorrhagic stroke/transient ischemic attack.

    No increased risk was found for hemorrhagic stroke.

    For people who received a Pfizer jab with an influenza shot, an elevated risk of non-hemorrhagic stroke was detected. For people who received a Moderna jab with an influenza shot, an elevated risk of transient ischemic attack was detected.

    A separate analysis of only influenza vaccination detected an increased risk of non-hemorrhagic stroke following receipt of a high-dose/adjuvanted influenza shot, and signals for different ages upon stratification.

    “Our study did identify an elevated risk of stroke when the COVID-19 bivalent vaccines were administered with a concomitant high-dose/adjuvanted influenza vaccine. However, the observed effects were not consistent,” the researchers, with the FDA and Acumen, said.

    A similar finding was detected in a study of data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Vaccine Safety Datalink system.

    The researchers said that the study’s findings suggest the elevated risk of stroke in the group that received influenza and COVID-19 vaccines together “was likely driven by influenza vaccination alone rather than concomitant administration.”

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/18/2023 – 20:00

  • Putin, Xi In Beijing Pitch For 'Alternative World Order' As Biden Departs A Burning Middle East
    Putin, Xi In Beijing Pitch For ‘Alternative World Order’ As Biden Departs A Burning Middle East

    As a Rabobank note has highlighted, the main theme on display during Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin’s Wednesday talks in Beijing was one of “common threats” bringing the two “dear friends” closer, according to a press readout. Observed Rabobank earlier in the day, “Meanwhile, as the Middle East rages and the West recoils, Xi Jinping welcomes Russia’s Putin and a host of Global South leaders, ex-India, to his Beijing Belt and Road Forum to talk about what an alternative world order might look like. The ‘global’ Western press mostly failed to even cover it.”

    Putin said at a media briefing following the meeting with his Chinese counterpart, “We discussed in detail the situation in the Middle East.” He added: “I informed Chairman (Xi) about the situation that is developing on the Ukrainian track, also quite in detail.” The Russian leader then emphasized: 

    “All these external factors are common threats, and they strengthen Russian-Chinese interaction.”

    AFP/Getty Images

    CNN subsequently called it a “pitch for a new world order” at a moment crisis has gripped the Middle East.

    Yet, almost simultaneously, Bloomberg reported that Biden is overseeing a fast unfolding disaster in the Middle East:

    President Joe Biden’s 7.5-hour trip to Tel Aviv signaled full US backing for Israel but fell short on another key goal: winning over Arab leaders.

    Amid growing signs the conflict may be spinning out of control, Biden made plain that the US will protect its ally, sending a clear message to rivals in the region like Iran to stay out of the fight. With one US aircraft carrier in the area and another on the way, Biden promised a new package of “unprecedented support.”

    The Bloomberg headline aptly reads, “Biden’s Whirlwind Israel Trip Fails to Calm Fears of Wider Middle East Conflict.” At this time, Lebanon, Jordan, and Egypt are on edge – with Western and Saudi embassies reducing staff and issuing travel advisories. 

    Meanwhile, related to Xi’s Belt and Road (the purpose of the gathering in Beijing), Putin praised the potential for it to usher in a “fairer, multi-polar world” as Moscow and Beijing grow closer based on “deep friendship”: 

    In his speech at the opening ceremony, Putin hailed Xi’s flagship foreign policy Belt and Road Initiative as “aiming to form a fairer, multi-polar world,” while touting his country’s deep alignment with China.

    Russia and China share an “aspiration for equal and mutually beneficial cooperation,” which includes “respecting civilization diversity and the right of every state for their own development model” – he added, in an apparent push back against calls for authoritarian leaders to promote human rights and political freedoms at home.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    This is at a moment Putin is “wanted” by the International Criminal Court (ICC) and shunned and sanctioned by the West, while at the same time Global South countries are expressing growing anger at Israel’s unrelenting bombing of the Gaza Strip, as the Palestinian death toll soars into the thousands.

    Directly related to this, a Thursday UN Security Council resolution brought by Brazil and seeking a ceasefire in Gaza was shot down, given the US was the only “no” vote.

    Also missed by the mainstream media was the following pro-China sentiment expressed by a top Palestinian official over a week ago:

    China will soon lead the world, and it supports the “Palestinian position, whatever it may be,” according to Fatah’s Central Committee member Abbas Zaki.

    In a public address that aired on Palestine TV on Sept. 29, Abbas Zaki called on the United States to “reconsider its stance” with regard to Israel or risk becoming irrelevant. The Israelis, he said, were “sons of bitches,” “murderers” and agents of instability, while the Palestinians are “messengers of peace.”

    “I know that there is serious change in Europe and even in the United States,” said Zaki.

    But, he added, “do not forget the emerging camp, which is on your side—the Chinese camp. China is going to lead the world, and it proclaims: ‘There can be no stability and progress without the liberation of Palestine, with East Jerusalem as its capital.’”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Putin too, has expressed more sympathies with the Palestinian side, days ago warning Israel of the “catastrophic” death toll its attacks on Gaza will result in. He has also held calls with Arab leaders, seeking to mediate peace and a possible two-state solution.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/18/2023 – 19:40

  • Our Public Schools Are A National Disaster
    Our Public Schools Are A National Disaster

    Commentary by Stephen Moore via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Perhaps what’s most distressing about the latest collapse in high school test scores is that no one seems to be very distressed.

    (Free-Photos/Pixabay)

    You’ve probably heard the news that ACT scores have fallen for the sixth straight year. Our high school kids are less equipped for a job or college than at any time in three decades.

    Why isn’t anyone in Washington or anyone in our $800 billion education bureaucracy sounding the alarm and declaring this a national emergency? It certainly puts our national security, our technological superiority, and our economic prosperity in grave danger.

    Instead of outrage, it is almost as if Americans have become anesthetized to bad news about our kids.

    One theory is that Americans feel about their local schools as they do toward Congress: They love their own representative but think the rest of the members are corrupt and incompetent.

    Yes, there are some excellent public schools, and yes, there are thousands of great teachers. But I live in Montgomery County, Maryland, which is one of the wealthiest counties in the country, and we had to pull our kids out of the public schools because they were so bad—and because they shut down during COVID-19.

    I shudder to think what’s going on in the Baltimore schools down the road.

    Exactly 40 years ago, the National Commission on Excellence in Education issued its findings on the state of the schools in its 1983 report entitled “A Nation at Risk.” Here was the grim conclusion: “If an unfriendly foreign power had attempted to impose on America the mediocre educational performance that exists today, we might well have viewed it as an act of war.”

    The nation never paid attention. If you think I’m blowing one bad report out of proportion, the National Assessment of Educational Progress report that came out earlier this year found similarly dismal student performance in the public schools. Reading and math proficiency collapsed over the past four years in part because of the teachers unions’ insistence that public schools stay closed during COVID—a national act of child abuse.

    The left obsesses about income inequality and the gap between rich and poor. Yet they are so captive to the teachers unions that they do nothing about what is arguably the most regressive policy in the United States: our failing public school system. The decline in test scores is only half the story. The other part of the story is that the biggest declines in learning and achievement are among the poorer families.

    I’m the furthest thing from an education expert, but I have had five kids. It’s pretty clear that three essential components to an enriching education are discipline in the classroom, high expectations, and a classical curriculum. This isn’t that complicated. It’s not like solving a Rubik’s Cube.

    Today, most public schools fail all three of these standards.

    California recently announced it is going to make climate change a standard part of the school curriculum. Really? They are going to scare the bejesus out of kids with a propaganda campaign telling them the world is coming to an end. Why don’t they just try phonics so kids can read?

    The school blob’s pitiful response to this abject failure to teach is to call for more money. We’ve tried that for 40 years. Spending per student in the public schools after adjusting for inflation is up 50 percent in 30 years, which almost entirely inversely correlates with the continual test score slide.

    The one glimmer of hope is the burgeoning school choice movement in the United States, which allows the dollars to follow the students and parents to choose the best schools for their kids—public, private, Christian, Jewish, or whatever works. Ten states this year have expanded school choice.

    Meanwhile, the teachers unions argue with a straight face that school vouchers would hurt the public schools. Have they seen the test scores? How could they possibly get worse?

    Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/18/2023 – 19:20

  • TSLA Tumbles After Musk Warns Of "Enormous Challenges" Reaching Cybertruck Volume Production
    TSLA Tumbles After Musk Warns Of “Enormous Challenges” Reaching Cybertruck Volume Production

    Update (1800ET): TSLA shares were holding up, higher from the close, until CEO Elon Musk showed some uncertainty about the cybertruck’s launch (which had been picked up optimistically from the press release).

    “It’s an amazing product but I do want to emphasize that there will be enormous challenges in reaching volume production with the Cybertruck and then in making the Cybertruck cash flow positive,” Musk said during Tesla’s earnings call on Wednesday.

    “While I think this is potentially our best product ever — I think it is our best product ever — it is going to require immense work to reach high-volume production and be cash flow positive at a price that people can afford.”

    This sent TSLA shares back to the lows of the day, down aropund 9% on the day (around 4% lower tahn the cash close)…

    Musk claims demand for the Cybertruck is “off the charts” with more than 1 million potential buyers putting down $100 to reserve one.

    *  *  *

    Tesla disappointed investors with its Q3 earnings report, missing on top-line, bottom-line, and margins as the company’s focus on reducing cost (and price) per vehicle impacted the numbers:

    • Tesla 3Q Adj EPS 66c, Est. 74c

    • Tesla 3Q Rev. $23.4B (Up 9% Y/Y), Est. $24.06B

    • Tesla 3Q Gross Margin 17.9%, Est. 18%

    Though arguably, maintaining margins amid this massive price war is noteworthy (though it was down from 25.1% a year ago).

    “We continue to believe that an industry leader needs to be a cost leader,” the company said.

    “During a high interest rate environment, we believe focusing on investments in R&D and capital expenditures for future growth, while maintaining positive free cash flow, is the right approach.”

    As the RHS chart below shows, Tesla still has considerable edge over the industry with regard to margins.

    Revenue was impacted by the following items:

    + growth in vehicle deliveries
    + growth in other parts of the business
    – reduced average selling price (ASP) YoY (excluding FX impact)
    – negative FX impact of $0.4B

    Free cash flow disappointed at $848 million, well below the estimate of $2.59 billion.

    And Tesla still sees production 1.8 million vehicles this year (in line with the estimate of 1.82 million).

    Tesla’s automotive gross margins ex-regulatory credits for the quarter was 16.3% (below expectations of 17.7%) and that was helped by a boost in regulatory credits…

    Tesla noted that while deliveries rose YoY, they declined sequentially…

    The electric vehicle manufacturer says its sequential decline in volume was caused by planned downtimes for factory upgrades.

    BUT, a positive spin was offered as Tesla said they had more than doubled the size of their AI-training compute.

    We have more than doubled the size of our AI training compute to accommodate for our growing dataset as well as our Optimus robot project. Our humanoid robot is currently being trained for simple tasks through AI rather than hard-coded software, and its hardware is being further upgraded.

    We have commissioned one of the world’s largest supercomputers to accelerate the pace of our AI development, with compute capacity more than doubling compared to Q2.

    Our large installed base of vehicles continues to generate anonymized video and other data used to develop our FSD Capability features.

    And an additional highlight is that Tesla says that “Cybertruck deliveries begin in November 2023” but without a lot of context as to what kind of volume we are talking about here.

    Tesla is now tweeting that:

    “Cybertruck production remains on track for later this year, with first deliveries scheduled for November 30th at Giga Texas.”

    TSLA shares initially puked on the miss, but bounced back above the close…

    Though TSLA was down around 5% on the day amid an ugly market.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/18/2023 – 19:15

  • South Korea Kicks Off Weeklong Arms Fair As Global Threat Of Turmoil Increases
    South Korea Kicks Off Weeklong Arms Fair As Global Threat Of Turmoil Increases

    What better time to hold an arms fair than in the midst of new turmoil in the Middle East and growing tensions in Europe? That’s exactly what South Korea did this week, beginning what will be a week-long international aerospace and defense exhibition as the country looks to position itself as a global exporter of arms.

    The country is looking to add a focus on exporting fighter jets, rocket launchers, drones and other weapons, according to a new report from Nikkei. 

    This year’s event attracted 550 companies from 34 nations and government groups from 57 countries, the report noted. And the timing hasn’t gone unnoticed: the fair is taking place at a time of global tension due to conflicts in Israel, Ukraine, and East Asia.

    Executives and officials visited the event near Seoul to see new tech and weapons in the aerospace and defense sectors. The event has been held every two years since 1996. At the opening, President Yoon Suk Yeol showcased various military equipment made by Korean companies.

    Yoon said: “Our defense industry is making new history, creating something from nothing. A country which relied on aid and imports now has leaped to a level that makes state-of-the art fighter jets and exports them. The government will create an ecosystem where our defense industry can continuously grow.” 

    Photo: Nikkei

    South Korea has built a top-tier arms industry over the years due to threats from North Korea, the report notes, and recently, it has become a big seller of weapons globally. Even Saudi Arabia’s assistant defense minister, Khaled Biyari, showed interest in South Korean weapons during his visit.

    He met with executives from Hanwha Aerospace and Hyundai Rotem and the CEO of Hanwha gave him a small model of their rocket launcher. Last year, Hanwha made a deal to sell rocket launchers to Poland, which is close to the conflict in Ukraine.

    And what would an arms event be without a presence from the US? Also at the event, South Korea and its U.S. ally showcased their military readiness against potential threats from North Korea. A U.S. Air Force B-52 bomber flew over the venue on the first day, signaling strong military ties between the two nations and sending a clear message to North Korea, Nikkei wrote. 

    U.S. Forces in Korea stated that the bomber was set to land somewhere on the peninsula during the exhibition. According to South Korea’s Yonhap News, the B-52 landed on Tuesday, marking its first-ever landing in the country.

    U.S. Ambassador to South Korea, Philip Goldberg, was also present and spoke on behalf of U.S. arms companies like Boeing and Lockheed Martin. He said: “Events such as ADEX are a testament to the enduring partnership between the ROK and the U.S., which is sustained thanks in large part to the commitment by everyone gathered in this pavilion.”

    Goldberg concluded: “Our militaries operate together every day here on the peninsula deterring threats and exercising for contingencies.”

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/18/2023 – 19:00

  • These Are America's 10 Most Dangerous Cities
    These Are America’s 10 Most Dangerous Cities

    Authored by Joe Gomez via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Democratic mayors are in charge of almost all of the United States’ 10 most dangerous cities, based on analyses of the latest available national data on violent crimes and the cost of crime.

    NeighborhoodScout and MoneyGeek used different methodologies to gauge the most violent and costliest crime cities, although five of the cities ended up on both lists.

    NeighborhoodScout’s report is based on the number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents in cities with 25,000 or more people. The data are based on the number of violent crimes reported to the FBI in each city, projections of violent crime rates based on prior years’ data, and the population of each city, according to the company.

    MoneyGeek analyzed the most recent crime statistics from the FBI to estimate the societal cost of crime per resident in 263 cities that have populations greater than 100,000.

    Demonstrators climb on a destroyed Baltimore police car on a street during violent protests in Baltimore on April 27, 2015. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

    10 Most Dangerous Cities

    NeighborhoodScout says it matches crime incident data from “all 18,000+ local law enforcement agencies in the U.S. to the specific local communities the agency covers, and hence in which community the crimes have occurred.”

    The organization considers homicide, rape, armed robbery, and aggravated assault as violent crimes.

    Its most dangerous city is Bessemer, Alabama, with a violent crime rate of 33.1 crimes per 1,000 residents. Bessemer is a suburb of Birmingham, which comes up sixth on this list and second on MoneyGeek’s “cost of crime” top 10 list.

    NeighborhoodScout lists Monroe, Louisiana, as its second most dangerous city, with a rate of 26.3 violent crimes per 1,000 residents. Monroe sits halfway between Shreveport, Louisiana, and Jackson, Mississippi.

    In third place is Saginaw, Michigan, with a violent crime rate of 25.1 per 1,000 residents. Saginaw is about 100 miles northwest of Detroit.

    Rounding out the top 10 are Memphis, Tennessee; Detroit; Birmingham, Alabama; Pine Bluff, Arkansas; Little Rock, Arkansas; Alexandria, Louisiana; and Cleveland.

    (The Epoch Times)

    Several mayoral races in the above cities are run as nonpartisan elections, which means all candidates are in one pool for voters.

    However, all but one of the cities are run by mayors who are either Democrats or are affiliated with the Democratic Party. The exception is Monroe, Louisiana, whose mayor, Friday Ellis, is a Republican-turned-independent.

    Cost of Crime Top 10

    MoneyGeek’s data measure the cost of crime per capita in cities of 100,000 or more. It doesn’t drill down to cities as small as NeighborhoodScout (25,000) but ends up with a very similar list and five exact matches.

    “Crime and safety are intertwined with prosperity, income, and economic opportunity. Crime is costly to individual victims, perpetrators, communities, and society at large,” the finance company posted on its website.

    Overall, MoneyGeek calculated the cost of crime in 2021 was $1,836 per capita in U.S. cities, up 6 percent, or $100 per capita, since 2020.

    The company says it analyzed crime data, including violent crimes such as murder, rape, and aggravated assault and property crimes such as home burglary and motor vehicle theft. MoneyGeek omitted any cities that didn’t report murder and rape.

    It calculated the cost of crime based on the “direct economic costs of crime to individuals and society.”

    This includes the medical and mental health care costs for victims and the damage to and loss of property, and the costs for police and corrections, MoneyGeek stated in its report.

    “Aside from the imminent danger of crime, people living in higher crime areas see depressed home values and pay higher prices for crucial needs, including home insurance, renters insurance, and auto insurance,” the report states.

    Ranking No. 1 on MoneyGeek’s list is St. Louis, which has an estimated crime cost per capita of $8,457, according to the finance company. Democrat Tishaura Jones was sworn in as the 47th mayor and the first black female mayor in the city’s history on April 20, 2021. Her predecessor was also a Democrat.

    (The Epoch Times)

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/18/2023 – 18:40

  • Top Republican Threatens To Subpoena DHS Secretary If Friday Deadline Missed
    Top Republican Threatens To Subpoena DHS Secretary If Friday Deadline Missed

    Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas can expect a subpoena from the House Homeland Security Committee if the DHS fails to meet a Friday deadline for producing materials spanning 19 separate categories of documents that may shed light on Mexican drug cartels which compromised the ‘CBP One’ app used by migrants to help them enter the US.

    Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas testifies before the House Judicary Committee in Washington on April 28, 2022. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

    The app, launched in October 2020 by US Customs and Border Patrol (CBP), was designed as a tool for shippers and other legal border traffic to maximize efficiency when scheduling movements into the US. It was quickly seized upon by Mayorkas in early 2021 as a method to increase the flow of immigrants in an orderly manner.

    Of note, more than six million migrants have crossed the southern US border since Biden took office in January 2021.

    In July, Mayorkas told the House Judiciary Committee that the app enabled migrants to schedule their entrance at a US Port of Entry, which “cuts out the smuggling organizations” and helps DHS identify individuals who shouldn’t enter the country.

    Now, the cartels have figured out how to compromise the app to schedule entry appointments for individuals who are early into their journeys north, allowing the Cartel to profit by charging immigrants to assist their entry.

    As the Epoch Times further notes; Beginning last summer, Republican investigators led by committee Chairman Mark Green (R-Tenn.) have pressured Mr. Mayorkas to turn over documents indicating that DHS uses the app to facilitate entry into the country of individuals the department is not authorized to allow to cross the border.

    “Secretary Mayorkas created a massive security vulnerability. This is unacceptable and too important to ignore, and the American people demand and deserve answers. The committee is simply requesting relevant documents that would provide Congress, a co-equal branch of government, and the American people with vital information about what’s happening at our Southwest border. Given the impact that the CBP One app has had on our border security, the committee will get to the bottom of this, one way or another,” Mr. Green told The Epoch Times.

    Repeated requests by the committee to DHS failed to generate production of any of the documents being sought by investigators. So, Mr. Green is now putting the threat of subpoenas on the table with DHS.

    Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.) speaks during a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on the U.S.-Afghanistan relationship following the military withdrawal, on Capitol Hill in Washington, on May 18, 2021. (Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)

    “The committee requires the requested documents, communications, and other information to fully evaluate potential legislation to reform the department’s authority to use CBP One to issue an illegal alien advanced travel authorization and grant parole into the United States,” Mr. Green wrote in an Oct. 13 letter to Mr. Mayorkas obtained by The Epoch Times.

    “The committee is concerned that the department’s use of CBP One to facilitate parole for large classes of illegal aliens extends beyond the department’s statutory parole authority that allows release of detainable illegal aliens applying for admission ‘on a case-by-case basis for urgent humanitarian reasons or significant public benefit …’

    “The committee seeks legislative solutions to further clarify limits on the department’s parole authority. If the outstanding requests related to CBP One remain unsatisfied by 5:00 p.m. on October 20, 2023, I will consider utilizing compulsory process. I expect prompt and complete compliance with all the committee’s outstanding requests for documents and other information.”

    The reference to “compulsory process” is to the power of the committee to issue subpoenas for the documents to Mr. Mayorkas, members of his legislation relations team, and other DHS employees, both Biden administration political appointees and career civil servants, who may be involved in responding to congressional requests.

    Mexican marines escort five alleged Zeta drug cartel traffickers in front of seized items – RPG-7 rocket launcher, hand grenades, firearms, cocaine, and military uniforms – presented to the press on June 9th, 2011. A report states the Mexican government and drug cartels are responsible for more than 150,000 deaths between 2006 and 2015. (YURI CORTEZ/AFP/Getty Images)

    A knowledgeable congressional source who asked not to be identified told The Epoch Times that “the national security implications are that the cartels are just able to manipulate everything that the Secretary is doing to continue their operations.”

    The source added that “the Secretary claimed the CBP One app cut the cartels out by allowing individuals to make their appointments … but now the cartels are involved in making money on that, too, so they haven’t cut the cartels out, the cartels are still in control. It’s become another stream of income for them.”

    Investigators are concerned that half of the individuals covered by CBP data are single male adults, many of them of military age, coming in illegally.

    “That they are using CBP One doesn’t change the demographics of those coming in … so of course the cartels can exploit CBP One to try to get in whoever they want. Somebody who does have terrorist ties that the U.S. may be aware of … those are the people that are going to be among the ‘gotaways.’ But people that may have terrorist ties we don’t know of, sure, there is no reason the cartels wouldn’t partner with terrorist organizations to exploit entry,” the source continued.

    A second knowledgeable congressional source, when asked by The Epoch Times if events in Israel since the Hamas massacre of Oct. 7 add urgency to the committee’s investigation, said, “The answer to that question is yes, but also, the mere fact that this app has been used to facilitate the cartels’ business here is unacceptable to start with. That’s beyond this war, that’s beyond terrorists smuggling across the border. But one of the things the committee’s [document demands] get to is trying to figure out this app’s vulnerabilities because it opens the door so widely.”

    A spokesman for Mr. Mayorkas did not respond to The Epoch Times’ request for comment.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/18/2023 – 18:20

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Oct 18

Today’s News 18th October 2023

  • Whitehead: Postcards From A Police State – 22 Years Of Blowback From The USA Patriot Act
    Whitehead: Postcards From A Police State – 22 Years Of Blowback From The USA Patriot Act

    Authored by John and Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in any country.”

    – Hermann Goering, German military commander and Hitler’s designated successor

    For those who remember the days and months that followed 9/11, there is an unnerving feeling of déjà vu about the Hamas attacks on Israel.

    The same shocking images of carnage and grief dominating the news. The same disbelief that anyone could be so hateful, so monstrous, so evil as to do this to another human being. The same outpourings of support and unity from around the world. The same shared fear that this could easily have happened to us or our loved ones.

    Now once again the drums of war are sounding on the world stage, not that they ever really stopped. Israel is preparing to invade Gaza, the Palestinians are nearing a humanitarian crisis, and the rest of the world is bracing for whatever blowback comes next.

    Here in the United States, as we approach the 22nd anniversary of the USA Patriot Act on October 26, we’re still grappling with the blowback that arises from allowing one’s freedoms to be eviscerated in exchange for the phantom promise of security.

    Here are a few lessons that we never learned or learned too late.

    • Mammoth legislation that expands the government’s powers at the citizenry’s expense will not make anyone safer. Rushed through Congress a mere 45 days after the 9/11 attacks, the USA Patriot Act drove a stake through the heart of the Bill of Rights, undermined civil liberties, expanded the government’s powers and opened the door to far-reaching surveillance by the government on American citizens.

    • Pre-emptive strikes will only lead to further blowback. Not content to wage war against Afghanistan, which served as the base for Osama bin Laden, the U.S. embarked on a pre-emptive war against Iraq in order to “stop any adversary challenging America’s military superiority and adopt a strike-first policy against terrorist threats ‘before they’re fully formed.’” We are still suffering the consequences of this failed policy, which resulted in lives lost, taxpayer dollars wasted, the fomenting of hatred against the U.S. and the further radicalization of terrorist cells.

    • War is costly. There are many reasons to go to war, but those who have advocated that the U.S. remain at war, year after year, are the very entities that have profited most from these endless military occupations and exercises. Thus far, the U.S. taxpayer has been made to shell out more than $8 trillion to wage wars abroad, including the lifetime price of health care for disabled veterans and interest on the national debt. That also does not include the more than hundreds of thousands of civilians killed, or the millions displaced from their homes as a result of endless drone strikes and violence.

    • The tactics and weapons of war, once deployed abroad, will eventually be used against the citizenry at home. The horrors that took place at Abu Ghraib, the American-run prison in Iraq, involved “US military personnel humiliating, hurting and abusing Iraqi prisoners in a myriad of perverse ways. While American servicemen and women smiled and gave thumbs up, naked men were threatened by dogs, or were hooded, forced into sexual positions, placed standing with wires attached to their bodies, or left bleeding on prison floors.” Adding to the descent into moral depravity, the United States government legalized the use of torture, including waterboarding, in violation of international law and in the so-called pursuit of national security. The ramifications have been far-reaching, with domestic police mirroring a battlefield mindset in their encounters with American citizens, including the use of torture tactics at secret locations such as Homan Square in Chicago.

    • Allowing the government to spy on the citizenry will not reduce acts of terrorism, but it will result in a watched, submissive, surveillance society. Not only did the USA Patriot Act normalize the government’s mass surveillance powers, but it also dramatically expanded the government’s authority to spy on its own citizens without much of any oversight. Thus, a byproduct of this post 9/11-age in which we live, whether you’re walking through a store, driving your car, checking email, or talking to friends and family on the phone, you can be sure that some government agency is listening in and tracking your behavior. This doesn’t even begin to touch on the corporate trackers that monitor your purchases, web browsing, Facebook posts and other activities taking place in the cyber sphere. We have all become data collected in government files. 

    • News cycle distractions are calibrated to ensure that you lose sight of what the government is doing. The average American has a hard time keeping up with and remembering all of the “events,” manufactured or otherwise, which occur like clockwork and keep us distracted, deluded, amused, and insulated from the reality of the American police state. Whether these events are critical or unimportant, when we’re being bombarded with wall-to-wall news coverage and news cycles that change every few days, it’s difficult to stay focused on one thing—namely, holding the government accountable to abiding by the rule of law—and the powers-that-be understand this. In this way, regularly scheduled trivia and/or distractions that keep the citizenry tuned into the various breaking news headlines and entertainment spectacles also keep them tuned out to the government’s steady encroachments on their freedoms.

    • If you stop holding the government accountable to the rule of law, the only laws it abides by will be the ones used to clamp down on the citizenry. Having failed to hold government officials accountable to abiding by the rule of law, the American people have found themselves saddled with a government that skirts, flouts and violates the Constitution with little consequence. Overcriminalization, asset forfeiture schemes, police brutality, profit-driven prisons, warrantless surveillance, SWAT team raids, indefinite detentions, covert agencies, and secret courts are just a few of the egregious practices carried out by a government that operates beyond the reach of the law.

    • Do not turn your country into a battlefield, your citizens into enemy combatants, and your law enforcement officers into extensions of the military. A standing army—something that propelled the early colonists into revolution—strips the citizenry of any vestige of freedom. How can there be any semblance of freedom when there are tanks in the streets, military encampments in cities, Blackhawk helicopters and armed drones patrolling overhead? It was for this reason that those who established America vested control of the military in a civilian government, with a civilian commander-in-chief. They did not want a military government, ruled by force. Rather, they opted for a republic bound by the rule of law: the U.S. Constitution. Unfortunately, we in America now find ourselves struggling to retain some semblance of freedom in the face of police and law enforcement agencies that look and act like the military and have just as little regard for the Fourth Amendment, laws such as the NDAA that allow the military to arrest and indefinitely detain American citizens, and military drills that acclimate the American people to the sight of armored tanks in the streets, military encampments in cities, and combat aircraft patrolling overhead.

    • As long as you remain fearful and distrustful of each other, you will be incapable of standing united against any threats posed by a power-hungry government. Early on, U.S. officials solved the problem of how to implement their authoritarian policies without incurring a citizen uprising: fear. The powers-that-be want us to feel threatened by forces beyond our control (terrorists, shooters, bombers). They want us afraid and dependent on the government and its militarized armies for our safety and well-being. Most of all, they want us distrustful of each other, divided by our prejudices, and at each other’s throats.

    • Once you trade your freedom for security, the terrorists win. We’ve walked a strange and harrowing road since September 11, 2001, littered with the debris of our once-vaunted liberties. We have gone from a nation that took great pride in being a model of a representative democracy to being a model of how to persuade a freedom-loving people to march in lockstep with a police state. And in so doing, we have proven Osama Bin Laden right. He warned that “freedom and human rights in America are doomed. The U.S. government will lead the American people in — and the West in general — into an unbearable hell and a choking life.”

    It took a long time to clear away the rubble from the 9/11 attacks.

    Yet as I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, 22 years after the USA Patriot Act was unleashed on a vulnerable nation, we are still reeling from the destruction it has wrought on our freedoms.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/17/2023 – 23:25

  • They Bought A Ranch To Help Veterans, Then Came An Unexpected 'Green Tax' Bill
    They Bought A Ranch To Help Veterans, Then Came An Unexpected ‘Green Tax’ Bill

    Authored by Beth Brelje via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Dark thunderstorm clouds parted and a double rainbow appeared just as a family pulled up at Heroes Ridge at Raven Rock, home of Operation Second Chance, a nonprofit retreat that benefits wounded veterans and their families.

    “We thought we were entering heaven,” a family member said upon arrival, according to Cindy McGrew, the founder and CEO of Operation Second Chance.

    Resident Cowboy Greg Maddox demonstrates the roping technique taught at Operation Second Chance in Sabillasville, Md., on Oct. 5, 2023. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

    The picturesque mountaintop on the border of Maryland and Pennsylvania in the Blue Ridge Mountains really is a slice of heaven, Ms. McGrew told The Epoch Times; it’s meant to help heal spirits broken by trauma experienced during military service.

    Operation Second Chance hosts battle buddies, caregivers, families, groups, and individuals from around the United States in cabins accessible for amputees and wheelchair users.

    The experience is free for guests, including travel expenses, activities, and food. The organization also provides grants to wounded veterans facing financial struggles, helping with house and car payments, medical supplies, and emergency assistance.

    The Mason-Dixon line runs through the property, a former church camp, and nearby Camp David, the presidential retreat, can be seen in one direction. From a wooded peak in another direction, veterans can sit by a bonfire overlooking the iconic Gettysburg battlegrounds, watch the sun go down, and talk with others who understand what they have seen, what they face, and how they feel.

    But, since Operation Second Chance bought the property in 2020, more dark clouds have loomed over Heroes Ridge. Two years after the organization bought the property, an unexpected tax bill arrived from Adams County, Pennsylvania.

    The bill, for more than $92,000, is the sum of a seven-year claw-back of a property tax discount through Pennsylvania’s Clean and Green Environmental tax break program.

    Operation Second Chance, a nonprofit retreat benefiting wounded veterans, is based at Heroes Ridge in the Blue Ridge Mountains, on the border of Maryland and Pennsylvania. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

    Clean and Green

    Heroes Ridge is a 275-acre, mostly wooded property with 25 acres in Frederick County, Maryland and the rest in Adams County. The Frederick County portion is tax-exempt because Operation Second Chance is a nonprofit. But Adams County hasn’t granted the same exemption.

    “We purchased this property in October of 2020, cleaned up the buildings that were already here, made them livable again and brought life back to them,” Ms. McGrew said. 

    “Then last year, 2022, just a few days before Thanksgiving, I received a call saying it was a courtesy call because we were going to get a tax bill for just over $92,000. 

    “I said ‘well, that’s impossible because we did a title search, and there was no money owed on the property, and we’re paid up on our taxes.’ And they said ‘No, the property came out of Clean and Green when you purchased it.’ And I had no idea what that meant.”

    The Pennsylvania Farmland and Forest Land Assessment Act is a state law that allows qualifying land devoted to agricultural or forest use to be assessed at lower than fair market value through the Clean and Green land preservation program. It’s intended to encourage property owners to keep most of their land in agricultural, open space, or forest, and not develop it. The program provides real estate tax relief and is favored by owners of large tracts of land.

    The previous owner put the land in the Clean and Green program for forest preservation in 2011 and paid a lower tax rate, according to records from the Adams County Register and Recorder’s Office. Ms. McGrew continued to pay at that rate until she received that phone call.

    The tax bill came with a fine for non-payment of $588 a day, Ms. McGrew said, which came to about $17,600 a month. Attorney Joseph Erb of Hanover, Pennsylvania, advised her to pay the bill to avoid racking up more fines and to then ask the county to return the money.

    Cindy McGrew, founder and CEO of Operation Second Chance, was caught by surprise when she received the tax bill for over $92,000. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

    By then, Operation Second Chance owed more than $93,000, so Ms. McGrew wrote a check to Adams County and paid the bill.

    “I told them, you have just prevented me from providing emergency assistance to 50 to 70 families. Most donations are intended to go to the veterans, not to pay back taxes.”

    Ms. McGrew is now asking for the money to be given back to the nonprofit. The Adams County Commissioners recently held a hearing on the matter and are expected to give their decision in mid-November.

    “We just feel like it’s the right thing to do, to give the money back,” Ms. McGrew said. “I’m praying. I’ve lost so much sleep over this, and I’ve cried. I woke up in the night crying. And finally, one day, I looked at the tax bill, and I put it in my Bible, and I said Lord, I’m giving this to you because I can’t worry about this anymore. I know things happen in his time. I’m praying that we get that tax money back so we can help other veterans.”

    Operation Second Chance tightened its budget and cut some programs this year to account for the tax bill.

    Normally, it gives $35,000 in scholarship money to high school seniors who have an injured family member, but this year it gave $10,000 in scholarship money. It also paid less in emergency financial assistance this year.

    “It takes a lot to run this retreat center. We pay for everything for the veterans to come here. We pay for their flights—they’re coming from all over the country. There’s no cost to the veterans to come here. We want them to come here and be relaxed and just spend time bonding together, enjoying themselves.”

    Tax Dispute

    When a buyer purchases a property already enrolled in Clean and Green, they must update the program’s application with their information, which usually triggers an additional review of the status, Adams County Solicitor Sean Mott told The Epoch Times. The review determines if the property has had a change of use that could take the land out of the program and trigger a seven-year rollback of the amount of taxes that weren’t paid due to the discount.

    The memorial at the nonprofit, which provides grants to wounded veterans facing financial struggles. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

    “In this case, it appears that the Tax Service Department sent a letter to Operation Second Chance on December 8th, 2020, indicating that they would need to file an amended application to determine whether the land continued to be used in accordance with Clean and Green,” Mr. Mott said. “That letter went unanswered, and so a second letter was sent on May 25, 2022, which also went unanswered.”

    Ms. McGrew said she never received those letters, but in August of 2022, someone from the county tax office visited Operation Second Chance with a letter in hand regarding Clean and Green. That letter did not have the right address, she said, and was not addressed to the right person. She asked him to check his records, address them properly, and mail them to Operation Second Chance.

    In Pennsylvania, exemption from taxation is allowed under two categories of landowners: religious organizations that use property for worship and “purely public charities,” so long as the land is actually used in furtherance of their charitable mission.

    Operation Second Chance applied in 2022 for a tax exemption under the Institution of Purely Public Charity Act, Mr. Mott said, “Which was only granted in part, as they were only able to provide evidence of charitable use (i.e., the veterans retreat) for 26.95 acres of the roughly 250 acres (most of which is undeveloped). So, 26.95 acres of the total property are completely exempt from property taxes.”

    Veterans can sit by a bonfire overlooking the iconic Gettysburg battlegrounds, and have conversations that create bonds between one another. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

    Now, Adams County considers the land on which the buildings are located as a nonprofit and exempt from taxes, but the undeveloped land—which Clean and Green seeks to preserve as forested land—is not being used enough by Operation Second Chance to qualify for the nonprofit tax exemption.

    “Essentially, the activity that qualified Operation Second Chance for tax exemption under the Institutions of Purely Public Charity Act was an ineligible use under the Clean & Green Law,” Mr. Mott said. 

    “However, even though a rollback was assessed for ineligible use under Clean and Green, Operation Second Chance was able to re-enroll that portion of the property that did not qualify for full exemption (about 220 acres), beginning in 2024. So, roughly 27 acres are fully exempt from taxation for charitable purposes, and 220 acres will receive preferential tax treatment under Clean and Green.”

    The Veterans

    In 2004, Ms. McGrew started visiting wounded veterans in Bethesda, Maryland, at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center. Her brothers had served in Vietnam, and she vowed that she would always care for veterans.

    At Walter Reed, she stood in for parents and spouses of the wounded when they could not be there, holding hands, listening to their concerns, and filling various needs that came up, such as purchasing a playpen for a visiting baby. Her coworkers handed her money and said, “Give this to your veterans.”

    This morphed into Operation Second Chance, allowing Ms. McGrew to help more veterans. Since its start, Operation Second Chance has provided more than $9 million in assistance to veterans and their families through public donations.

    “We’ve got guys and gals that are surviving catastrophic injuries that they would not have survived in previous wars,” Ms. McGrew said. 

    “Some are from rural America, they want to get out of a bad situation by joining the military, or they are very patriotic and wanted to take a stand and fight for our country. If they’re wounded, they only get a percentage of that pay for life. If you saw their paycheck, for many of them, it’s not enough to live on. If you’re in Montgomery County, Maryland, for instance, you could not live on $1,700 a month, and that’s what some will make. It depends on their rank. I don’t have all the answers for that, but I know if [the nation] were doing our job, you wouldn’t need nonprofits.”

    Many veterans wait until the last minute to ask for help, she said, hoping something in their circumstances will change.

    Visitors to Heroes Ridge enter a gravel lane through an electronic security gate and drive about a mile uphill before cresting at the mountaintop where the main activities are located. There are several cabins for families, a recreation building, a chow hall, a main house and pool, and an outdoor arena for horses. An indoor horse-riding arena is planned where the outdoor arena is located so they can continue their horse program in all weather.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/17/2023 – 22:45

  • It’s Time To Overhaul FOIA
    It’s Time To Overhaul FOIA

    Authored by  Curtis Schube & Gary Lawkowski via RealClear Wire,

    When it comes to the federal government and responding to Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests, it is so commonplace for federal agencies to drag their feet and not provide fully responsive documentation that it is not even newsworthy when those agencies do not comply with the law. Instead, they miss deadlines and redact perfectly responsive and unprivileged information. This runs contrary to the purpose of FOIA, which is to allow citizens access to the activities of their government.

    Numerous examples abound, as evidenced by the fact that the number of FOIA cases being taken to court has ballooned over the past decade. Perhaps this is because, in this era of mistrust in our government, the number of requests has also increased dramatically. Agencies have responded in kind by demanding more from requesters. They are expected to know, and say, the correct combination of buzzwords (even officials’ email addresses at times!). This requires fluency with the agency’s inner workings, which all but the most sophisticated requesters do not have.

    While FOIA has seen several reform efforts over the years, and several agencies have made small regulatory changes, few if any of these changes tend to make a dent. For instance, in 2016 Congress amended FOIA to establish an enhanced harm standard for agency redactions that was intended to limit abuse of the nine exemptions available to protect particularly sensitive, private, or deliberative information.

    The amendment required agencies to conduct the harm analysis down to the sentence and even further. A few agencies took the reforms to heart, but for the stat, requesters still overwhelmingly receive large swaths of documents completely blacked out with conclusory statements citing one of the nine exemptions (i.e., virtually no attempt to segregate and produce all responsive parts of records).

    From an agency’s perspective, the increased FOIA burden is often seen as a pointless distraction that devours scarce resources and whose noncompliance presents little to no consequences. The 2016 amendment – hailed as one of the most robust in the law’s history – bears this out. Reforms that don’t recognize and address agency incentives are doomed to fail. While requesters want greater transparency, federal bureaucrats typically just desire less work.

    To this effect, we have identified a series of reforms that attempt to change agency incentives at the individual level, reduce backlogs for the most frequently requested records, and impose uniformity where there is arbitrary decision-making.       

    One such mechanism is a dramatic expansion of proactive disclosure obligations to include the administrative record (which provides the rationale for government decisions), senior officials’ calendars and external communications (which shows outside influences on their actions), ethics records (which show potential conflicts of interest), and settlement agreements (which show the details of settlements between government and public interest groups). All of these records are vital to transparency and are a source of burden for the agencies (both in the search and production phases, as well as in the often unavoidable litigation phase). To be successful, agency compliance must be automatic and not subject to record custodians’ whims or bureaucrats’ prioritization with other incoming requests or duties.

    Forcing agencies to take ownership over FOIA request backlogs, including consequences for noncompliance, would incentivize compliance. Reform could include limiting non-essential travel, such as conference attendance, unless FOIA request backlogs are caught up. Also, forcing the agencies to participate more actively in FOIA noncompliance litigation, rather than passing off the litigation to the Department of Justice, would force the agencies to take ownership of FOIA compliance.

    Another problem is inconsistency among agencies, which lends credence to concerns of arbitrary hurdles being erected that reduce transparency. The same request can be sent to two different agencies. One response may be forthcoming, while the other restricts access to the same types of records. A simple solution could be an estoppel system whereby when one agency responds to a particular record, precedent is set for that type of record for all federal agencies. Finally, several categories of records unique to certain agencies, such as immigration or social security records, constitute a disproportionate amount of FOIA requests and could benefit from a separate process.

    These changes are both significant and common sense. They would both reduce the workload of federal agencies and increase access to government records for the people. They are neither ideological nor controversial. Liberals and conservatives alike would benefit from these policies. In environment where the need for transparency is at an all-time high, now is the time to fundamentally reform FOIA and restore the law’s original intention: transparency.

    Curtis Schube is the executive director for the Council to Modernize Governance, a think tank committed to making the administration of government more efficient, representative, and restrained. He is formerly a constitutional and administrative law attorney.

    Gary Lawkowski is a lawyer with the Dhillon Law Group, where he advises and represents clients on legal issues including matters concerning the Freedom of Information Act. He previously served in government as counselor to the secretary of the interior, senior advisor to the Domestic Policy Council, and counsel to three commissioners on the Federal Election Commission.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/17/2023 – 22:05

  • The New Hoovervilles? RV Villages And Make-Shift Tribes On The Rise As Inflation Bites
    The New Hoovervilles? RV Villages And Make-Shift Tribes On The Rise As Inflation Bites

    From 2020 to 2023, the median purchase price of homes in the US rose from $320,000 to over $420,000 – That’s a 33% increase in only 3 years.   In 2011, the average price of a home was around $200,000, meaning prices have doubled in a single decade.   The average apartment rental price in the US is now $1300 per month, compared to $1000 in 2020, and home rentals have risen to over $2000 per month on average.  The spike in the market is a reflection of inflation across the board, as well as increased demand due to more Americans being priced out of home ownership.  

    Another interesting development during the pandemic years was a considerable rush to buy RVs, vans and tiny homes.  This may have been a symptom of the authoritarian lockdowns that became a standard in blue states, leading people to relocate.  However, there is also the economic factor.  The average tiny home runs $30,000 to $60,000, with used RVs available for even less.  RV space rentals can be found for as low as $500 per month.  For those willing to sacrifice living space, the savings are alluring.  

    Inflationary crisis is pushing low income and fixed income Americans into tighter living conditions, and people are trying to adapt as best they can.  The underlying difference between economic disasters of the past like the Great Depression and the stagflation crisis of today is not the severity of the decline but the visibility of the decline.  

    In the Great Depression, the proliferation of “Hooverville” shanty towns and charity soup lines became an iconic symbol of the scale of financial calamity.  These kids of signals of collapse are not as prevalent or obvious in our era.  Soup lines have been replaced by EBT benefits and food banks, while Hoovervilles are being replaced by “Squatter Towns” made up of RV villages on the outskirts of highways and Walmart parking lots.  

    Another factor which has perhaps improved the conditions of falling home affordability is the remote work option and the “gig economy.”  A person living out of an RV or van has the ability to connect to the internet and raise funds through digital work, they can become contract workers for delivery services, or they can work a regular 9-5 job while saving money on rent and utilities.  This is not to say that the trend is ideal or that this should be the new western standard; it still represents the decline of western civilization.  But, the ugliness of economic uncertainty is far more hidden from view.    

    During the Great Depression, many people became nomadic, traveling across the country by rail or by caravan looking for better living conditions and better employment.  But the life of these nomads focused on less than ideal camp conditions, poor sanitation and poor security.  They were often the targets of criminals.  We have a version of this today in the form of “tent cities” in places like Los Angeles, but for now the RV option appears to be the dominant one.  

    Even in places as cold as Canada with limited populations, RV communities are popping up everywhere.  The following video gives some insight into the lives of people who are involved in such communities, either by choice or by necessity.

    One issue that stands out as paramount is the return of a kind of tribal organization.  Neighbors knowing each other and helping each other through difficult times.  The isolation of the modern world has created a kind of anti-community; a world in which no one knows anyone and mutual aid is seen as unsavory.  Economic crisis has a tendency to force societies back to their origins and tribalism might be making a comeback as a fundamental of survival.      

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/17/2023 – 21:45

  • How COVID Vaccine Could Harm Your Gut, Leading To Brain Fog And Autoimmune Disease
    How COVID Vaccine Could Harm Your Gut, Leading To Brain Fog And Autoimmune Disease

    Authored by Marina Zhang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Diarrhea, constipation, and bloating are common problems that plague two-thirds of Americans.

    (Christoph Burgstedt/Shutterstock)

    While gut problems are often written off as caused by poor diet and lifestyle habits, they may also be a sign of damage from infections such as COVID-19 and from COVID vaccination.

    Internal medicine physician Dr. Keith Berkowitz, who has treated 200 COVID-vaccine-injured patients, told The Epoch Times that he found gut problems widespread among long-COVID and post-vaccine patients. However, patients often fail to bring up these issues.

    Also, people may not be aware that symptoms such as fatigue and brain fog could be driven by gut problems, internist Dr. Yusuf Saleeby told The Epoch Times.

    The Gut Is Linked to Everything

    Poor gut health is associated with a vast range of diseases, including diabetes, obesity, heart disease, dementia, cancer, infections, autoimmune diseases, and even reproductive diseases.

    The gut’s health often depends on its microbiome, comprised of 100 trillion microbes inside the large intestine.

    A healthy microbiome has a diverse population of microbes with many beneficial bacteria. These microbes produce chemicals necessary for metabolism, nutrition, immunity, and communication within organs. They also help maintain the mucous layer in the gut, preventing infections from entering through the gut cells.

    Poor diet, poor sleep, environmental toxins, alcohol and drugs, infections, and chronic diseases can damage the microbiome by depleting it of beneficial bacteria, leaving pathological bacteria in its place.

    Loss of Bifidobacteria in Gut After COVID Vaccination

    Infections with the COVID-19 virus have been shown to damage the gut microbiome and are associated with compromised integrity of the gut’s mucous layer, causing gut dysbiosis—a microbiome imbalance.

    Reports have also shown that the COVID-19 mRNA vaccine is linked to reduced biodiversity in the microbiome. 

    A gastroenterologist and the CEO of genetic research lab ProgenaBiome, Dr. Sabine Hazan has found that test results of many vaccine-injured patients a month after vaccination show a lack of the probiotic Bifidobacteria. Dr. Hazan’s laboratory was the first to report the whole genome sequence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus using patient fecal samples.

    Bifidobacteria are a group of bacteria under the Bifidobacterium genus and are among the first microbes to colonize the gut. They are believed to benefit their host’s health and are among the most common probiotics.

    “Right now, we’re seeing a persistence [of Bifidobacteria loss] in some patients, not a lot of patients,” Dr. Hazan said. “But if people are suffering after the vaccine, they need to be looked at. They can enter a clinical trial right now … We have markers that we’re developing to identify those patients that are vaccine-injured, and we’re trying to find a signature microbiome in vaccine injuries.”

    Her research team has since been following 200 vaccine-injured patients. She has observed drastic losses of Bifidobacteria and other species in some patients. However, there have also been rare cases where Bifidobacteria increased.

    Dr. Hazan believes that the spike proteins coating the surface of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, made in human cells after vaccination, kill Bifidobacteria, much like the virus can infect and kill good bacteria.

    Like the COVID-19 virus, loss of beneficial microbes like Bifidobacteria may cause gut dysbiosis, directly linked to poor gut health and associated diseases.

    However, gut dysbiosis is poorly defined in clinical diagnosis.

    “In the clinical research looking at patients, we don’t have that definition yet,” Dr. Hazan said. “There is no guidelines to say gut dysbiosis is equal to this (specific thing).”

    Dr. Hazan’s earlier works in COVID patients showed that Bifidobacteria abundance is linked to the severity of COVID-19 disease. Patients with more Bifidobacteria in their gut tended to have mild or asymptomatic disease, whereas patients with low or no Bifidobacteria developed severe disease.

    Treating COVID-19 Injuries Could Start in the Gut

    Many factors must be considered when restoring the microbiome. Doctors must ensure the right microbes are cultivated, that this happens in the right place, that it will not disturb other microbes, and that the gut can support the new microbes being colonized, Dr. Hazan said.

    Restoring microbes in an unhealthy gut environment could be like growing an apple tree in the sand.

    “It’s forensics of the gut microbiome,” she said.

    For Dr. Saleeby, helping patients with COVID-19 injuries often starts with the gut since the gut is what allows patients to absorb prescribed drugs and nutraceuticals.

    He gave the example of low-dose naltrexone, a common staple used among doctors treating long COVID and vaccine injuries.

    “Low-dose naltrexone (LDN) will help the inflamed bowel and will help with Crohn’s disease and/or ulcerative colitis, and in exchange, when you start repairing the gut, you’ll find out that the LDN is absorbed better. So it may change the dose of LDN,” he said.

    In gut dysbiosis, a person may develop small intestinal bacterial overgrowth (SIBO), which can interfere with treatment. Patients may also feel worse after starting therapy. This is because many of the first-line therapies used in treating COVID-19-vaccine injuries work by clearing spike protein and increasing the body’s ability to flush pathogens, Dr. Saleeby said. This can lead the immune system also to attack the overgrowth of bacteria in the gut, resulting in a sudden and massive accumulation of dead microbes in the body.

    The body sees these dead pathogens as a threat, which triggers a sudden inflammatory reaction, causing more symptoms to flare up.

    Reducing the treatment dosage and supplementing with anti-inflammatory therapies like hydration therapy, saunas, and Epsom salt baths can make these reactions more tolerable, said Dr. Saleeby.

    Dr. Berkowitz also has patients who cannot tolerate typical postvaccine therapies. His patients, however, tend to exhibit signs of an overactive nervous system, which he suspects is linked to neurotransmitter depletion from the loss of beneficial bacteria.

    These patients also become much more tolerant of postvaccine treatments once they are given hydration therapy and nutraceuticals that help calm the nervous system and rebuild the gut microbiome.

    Damaged Gut: Neurological Problems

    Research has shown that the gut and the brain are linked through their nervous system, and Drs. Saleeby and Berkowitz believe that the damaged gut could contribute to the brain fog, fatigue, and other problems seen in their patients.

    Gut problems have long been linked to neurocognitive impairments.

    For instance, some people develop severe brain fog “within 30 minutes” of eating a piece of bread because they’re gluten-sensitive or have celiac disease, Dr. Saleeby said.

    Neuroinflammation driven by the gut could explain why patients with gut problems often develop neurocognitive problems. The brain and the gut are extensively linked through the gut-brain axis. When patients suffering from gut problems eat particular foods or chemicals that trigger disease, the gut may produce inflammatory chemicals that can penetrate the brain.

    Another reason cause of neurocognitive impairment is the depletion of neurotransmitters. Many microbes in the gut use dietary nutrients to make neurotransmitters. Some of these microbes are lost in dysbiosis, and the gut becomes less capable of absorbing nutrients for use.

    Therefore, neurological and cognitive problems may manifest. The neurotransmitters used in the brain are also made in the gut. Ninety-five percent and 50 percent of serotonin and dopamine are made in the gut, respectively.

    Most neurotransmitters made outside the brain cannot cross the blood-brain barrier or be utilized by the brain. Yet research suggests a direct link between mental and cognitive health and microbiome health.

    Dr. Berkowitz has noticed what he considers a depletion of gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA), which can be made by bacteria in the gut, including Bifidobacteria. He believes the lack of GABA in the brain—an inhibitor to calm the nervous system—is why many patients display signs of an overactive nervous system.

    He treats these patients with magnesium and melatonin, both of which stimulate GABA, and bovine colostrum, a milky fluid that seeps from cow udders the first few days after they give birth. Bovine colostrum has had promising results in repairing gastrointestinal damage in both animals and humans. Using these therapeutics, Dr. Berkowitz found that patients’ overactive nervous systems seemed to calm down, improving their symptoms.

    “People describe their system going 100 miles an hour,” he said, and when you calm that down, the body can then repair itself. “Repair doesn’t happen when the body’s in a stress state … [since all the body’s] resources are focused on just survival.”

    Damaged Gut: Autoimmune Conditions

    Gut problems have also long been associated with autoimmune diseases, and doctors treating vaccine-injured patients have reported similar findings.

    Autoimmune problems typically manifest in leaky gut, often medically referred to as increased intestinal permeability. In a leaky gut, the mucous layer protecting the gut from microbes is broken down, and microbes can then infect the gut lining and nearby blood vessels.

    “If [the gut lining] is disrupted, it’s kind of like [breaking down] a castle wall,” Dr. Saleeby said. “If it gets breached, then the enemy can get in.”

    During this stressful time of invasion, if a virus or bacteria makes it in, infection occurs. If the invader is harmless, like a piece of peanut or a benign chemical, an allergic reaction manifests instead. The body starts attacking these foreign yet benign antigens and, in doing so, may harm itself, leading to autoimmune disease.

    Dr. Berkowitz has found that many of his patients with overactive nervous systems and gut problems also test positive for autoantibodies, signaling a potential autoimmune disease.

    “Nerve pain, fatigue, muscle and joint issues are probably the most common issues [with these patients],” he said. Many also report skin problems such as rashes.

    However, once prescribed treatment for their guts and nervous systems, the patients’ symptoms improve, and their antibody levels decline.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/17/2023 – 21:25

  • Chinese Data Dump Steamrolls Expectations, Setting Victorious Stage For Xi's BRI Address
    Chinese Data Dump Steamrolls Expectations, Setting Victorious Stage For Xi’s BRI Address

    With Xi preparing to address delegates from 130 nations around the world at the third Belt and Road Initiative Forum, we should not be too surprised if the deluge of Chinese macro data tonight – headlined by Q3 GDP – will beat expectations.

    In fact, as Bloomberg’s Chang Shu and David Qu noted, China’s recovery could be starting to get some traction, supported by stronger public investment and monetary easing, as weekly activity data rebounded in September…

    …and overall China data has surprised more to the upside in recent months (admittedly against very weak expectations)…

    However, bear in mind that base effects will dampen the year-on-year readings.

    Growth in 2Q23 was flattered by a comparison with a depressed performance in 2Q22 caused by the Zero-COVID lockdowns. That boost will be gone in 3Q23, so most economists will be focused on the QoQ growth.

    The Yuan has been relatively stable since the end of Q2, after plunging in Q1 and Q2…

    And, despite all the pumping and support, China’s Credit Impulse remains negative (for the 5th month in a row) as its real estate market continues to implode sucking up every yuan to fill the hole-filled bucket balance sheet of Chinese citizenry…

    Oh and while we are discussing that, China Property Stock gauge plunged to its lowest since 2009…

    So, eyes down for a fun night of ‘adjustments’ from Beijing.

    China’s GDP growth YoY in Q3 was expected to come in at +4.5% (down from +6.3% in Q2) but most eyes will be focused on the QoQ number (+0.9% exp) due to base effects from the COVID lockdowns.

    The headline QoQ GDP printed +1.3% (better than expected).

    Helped by a downward revision for Q2 from +0.8% to +0.5%. The headline YoY data beat expectations (+4.9% YoY vs +4.5% exp and +5.2% YTD YoY vs +5.0% YTD YoY exp)…

    Industrial Production and Retail Sales beat expectations…

    • *CHINA SEPT. INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT RISES 4.5% Y/Y; EST. 4.4%

    • *CHINA SEPT. RETAIL SALES RISE 5.5% Y/Y; EST. 4.9%

    While the data show increasing consumer spending growth, the big downside is that China’s property slump is still deep and ongoing.

    • *CHINA JAN.-SEPT. FIXED INVESTMENT RISES 3.1% Y/Y; EST. 3.2%

    • *CHINA JAN.-SEPT. PROPERTY DEV. INVESTMENT -9.1% Y/Y, EST. -8.9%

    Worse still, the area of property sold fell 7.5% in September, lower than -7.1% seen the previous month.

    Chinese unemployment miraculously tumbled to 5.0% – the lowest since Oct 2021.

    Of course, China continues to hide its youth unemployment rate – after it reached record highs at 21.3% in June.

    China’s statistics bureau said in the release, overall, China’s economy continued to recover in the first three quarters, laying a “solid foundation” for achieving the full-year development goals. Although, China once again warned of the external environment, saying it is becoming more complex and severe.

    Under the hood, the fastest growing retail sales categories relate to vice and virtue.

    Tobacco and alcohol sales were up a massive 23.1% year-on-year, a remarkable number (the highest recorded since April 2021). Sports items sales surged 10.7%.

    So to sum things up – while investment (especially property) continues to be ugly everything else beat (miraculously)

    Michael Hirson of 22V Research says in a note he’s paying most attention to signs of any recovery in household and private sector demand.

    “Property sales and related indicators will provide a sense of whether recent easing measures are having an effect preliminary data suggest a pick-up in sales in the largest markets (tier 1 and some tier 2) but one that is thus far limited in its strength and breadth,” he wrote in a note.

    “On the consumption side, August showed some improvement in household spending on goods, rather than just services, and it will be important to see whether there are further signs of progress as reflected not only in monthly retail sales but also the quarterly survey of household income and spending.”

    Given his thoughts, property sales and investments data were ugly – not a good sign… and on the consumption side, everyone was celebrating their non-job ‘job’.

    The bottom line from the data – China bottomed… a perfect narrative for Xi.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/17/2023 – 21:15

  • Pro-Hamas Groups Push Critical Race Theory, Socialism In US
    Pro-Hamas Groups Push Critical Race Theory, Socialism In US

    Authored by Brad Jones via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A California woman sobbed as she learned her friend’s 19-year-old son was kidnapped by the Hamas terrorist group in Israel.

    Protesters wave Palestinian flags in support of Palestinians and socialism in Los Angeles, Calif., on Oct. 12, 2023. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)

    The next day, on Oct. 12, as news of pro-Palestinian “Day of Resistance” rallies spread across the United States, the woman, who is of Jewish heritage and asked not to be named for fear of reprisal, broke the tragic news: Her friend’s son had been murdered by the terrorists.

    The same evening, a group of activists in south Los Angeles staged a protest in solidarity with Palestinians. Two days later, demonstrators again rallied—this time thousands gathering near the Israeli Consulate, at one point shutting down the on- and off-ramps to Wilshire Boulevard from the 405 Freeway.

    At the Thursday protest, activists equated the plight of Palestinians to those of “indigenous peoples.” They called the Israeli settlements in the Gaza Strip an “occupation” steeped in racism. They blamed the “capitalist” Jews and white Europeans for the loss of their “indigenous lands” and called for a socialist revolution.

    “All resistance to colonial occupation is justified!” shouted one speaker at the event.

    Protesters chanted, “From Palestine to Mexico, border walls have got to go,” and “From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free,” among other slogans. They blamed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for children killed in retaliatory attacks on Palestine and condemned Zionism, equating it with South African apartheid, fascism, and Nazism.

    Thousands of demonstrators waving Palestinian flags and signs denouncing “Israeli apartheid” march in Los Angeles on Oct. 14, 2023. (David Swanson/AFP via Getty Images)

    Julia Wallace of Service Employees International Union speaks in support of Palestinians in Los Angeles on Oct. 12, 2023. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)

    The protest, at Martin Luther King Boulevard and Figueroa Street, was organized by Unión del Barrio and the Association of La Raza Educators and other left-wing activist groups known for their support of critical race theory, or CRT, and the state-imposed ethnic studies program.

    Julia Wallace of the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) spoke out against Zionism. She called for defunding police as “enforcers of capitalism,” saying they should be ousted from the labor union.

    Another speaker called for a protest outside the south Los Angeles Police Department station on Oct. 22.

    “Let’s take over the police station,” he told the crowd of about 30 supporters.

    Meanwhile, an Oct. 16 Reuters/Ipsos poll shows most Americans see Hamas as a terrorist organization, while they view Israel favorably. An Oct. 13 Rasmussen poll found most U.S. voters blame Palestinians for the conflict and agree with calls for the “eradication” of Hamas.

    On Oct. 15, thousands of people showing support for Israel rallied in Los Angeles, walking down Pico Boulevard to the Museum of Tolerance.

    Demonstrators attend a rally in solidarity with Israel in Los Angeles on Oct. 10, 2023. (Ethan Swope/Getty Images)

    Support for Israel

    Ric Grenell, a Californian and former U.S. Ambassador to Germany who also served as Acting Director of National Intelligence in the Trump administration, condemned the recent attacks on Israeli civilians.

    He stated on Twitter on Oct. 13, the Democratic Socialists of America and student groups that support Hamas “are a real threat to America.”

    “Voting for Democrats who support Socialists like @DemSocialists and ‘Sanctuary Cities’ policies will absolutely lead to people entering our country freely who haven’t been vetted by U.S. immigration services. … We must have laws that protect us against people entering the U.S. who support terrorists like Hamas.”

    Michael Shellenberger, an author and San-Francisco-based political activist who co-founded the California Peace Coalition and other groups, condemned the terrorist attacks on the Israeli people.

    “We unreservedly condemn the atrocities carried out by Hamas and support the right of Israel to defend itself and protect its citizens,” he wrote. “The stories and images of the attack shock the conscience. Nothing on earth could justify such crimes. We condemn those on the radical left who have defended the actions of Hamas terrorists.”

    “We are pro-Israel, by which we mean we defend its right to exist and its right to defend itself,” he continued. “At the same time, we urge Israel and its supporters, including the United States, to, in their response, abide by international law in general and the Geneva Convention in particular. That means doing everything possible to avoid killing or injuring civilians in the Gaza Strip.”

    Kelly Schenkoske, an independent researcher and education advocate, and a critic of critical race theory being taught in California classrooms, denounced the protests pushing critical ideologies.

    “We’re seeing protests at college campuses nationwide in support of Palestine, but this issue does not just reside on our college campuses, it resides in the K-12 sector, especially within ethnic studies,” Ms. Schenkoske said.

    A Palestinian flag is waved at a rally in support of Palestinians, in Los Angeles on Oct. 12, 2023. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)

    The state-imposed ethnic studies curriculum in California is “filled with radical ideology,” she said.

    “The same activists demanding safe schools promote antisemitic ethnic studies content aimed at decolonizing education [and] promoting critical consciousness and training in neo-Marxism. We need to defund antisemitism in schools entirely,” she said.

    Deborah Fillman, a former teacher and education analyst based in North Carolina, told The Epoch Times that California schools are teaching “lies” as historical information through its ethnic studies programs.

    “They’re doing it under the guise of social justice, which is false. There’s no justice that can come from murder. There is no legitimate resistance that comes from the wanton slaughter of innocent civilians,” she said.

    “From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free,” is a Hamas slogan that means “all the Jews have to go—the eradication of Israel,” said Ms. Fillman, who is Jewish.

    The pro-Palestinian protestors aren’t calling for a two-state solution but are instead supporting Hamas when they chant those words, she said.

    “It is literally a war crime—every single thing [Hamas] did—including using their own people as human shields,” Ms. Fillman said.

    Colonizer Versus Oppressed

    Tammi Rossman-Benjamin, a co-founder and director of the AMCHA Initiative, a non-profit organization that combats antisemitism, told The Epoch Times that proponents of ethnic studies have used the Israeli-Palestinian conflict “as a way to essentially beat up their political enemies.”

    The pro-Palestinian protestors are using the tenets of critical race theory to frame the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in terms of the colonizer and the oppressed, she said.

     

    “It’s the whole binary oppressed-oppressor [concept] at the heart of ethnic studies that they’ve expanded to talk about politics and international politics,” she said. “In this case, their political agenda aligns up with Hamas’s political agenda which is to destroy Israel.”

    Hamas doesn’t talk about colonialism, she said.

    “It talks about Holy War, it talks about jihad,” and it calls for the ethnic cleansing of Jews from what it considers Muslim lands, Ms. Rossman-Benjamin said.

    The recent “beheading of babies, rape, kidnapping, and massacres” represent the worst and largest number of atrocities committed against Jews since the World War II Holocaust, she said.

    “For Jews, this is really unprecedented in two generations,” she said.

    The AMCHA Initiative issued a statement saying it is “shocked and horrified at the gruesome massacre of over 900 Israelis—children, mothers, grandmothers, fathers, entire families—hundreds of them gunned downed at a music festival … reports of rape and torture, and an estimated over 100 Israelis kidnapped, including children, the elderly, a Holocaust survivor, young women, teenagers, and families.”

    The Jewish community in the U.S. is now bracing for more pro-Palestinian protestors across dozens of university campuses expressing support for “this genocidal campaign,” AMCHA stated.

    The Harvard Undergraduate Palestine Solidarity Committee and more than 30 other student groups recently signed a statement arguing that Israel’s “apartheid regime” is entirely to blame for the attacks. However, following public backlash, at least five organizations that initially signed the letter withdrew their support.

    “We will work hard to expose and combat on-campus supporters and apologists for terror, especially the faculty and departments who provide academic legitimacy for the murder of Jews while disingenuously wrapping themselves in the mantle of academic freedom,” AMCHA stated. “Our hearts are broken, but our resolve is not. We stand united with the Jewish people in Israel and around the world.”

     

    At the University of California—Santa Cruz (UCSC), the Critical Race and Ethnic Studies (CRES) department, which studies “race intersectionality in the context of power,” put out a statement Oct. 11 in support of the Palestinian people.

    “In this moment—when we are grieving lives lost, fearing the many more to come, and witnessing Israel once again retaliate against a trapped Palestinian population in Gaza—we want to underscore the need for study,” CRES stated. “What we are witnessing needs to be understood in the context of 75 years of settler colonial displacement, military occupation, and enclosure. As in the past, racialized media coverage dehumanizes Palestinians, delegitimizing their aspirations for freedom from militarism, colonial rule, and incarceration.”

    The department claims the world is witnessing “the circulation of technologies that are weaponized against Palestinians first, and, subsequently, our most vulnerable populations in the United States, on our borders and globally,” and cites this as the reason why it supports “the critical study of Zionism.”

    The university has received pushback from at least seven members of the faculty, including Ms. Rossman-Benjamin’s husband, Ilan Benjamin, a chemistry professor. On Oct. 4, the group sent a letter to UCSC Chancellor Cynthia Larive expressing “grave concerns” ahead of the inaugural conference of the Institute for the Critical Study of Zionism, held on Oct. 13–14.

    Although the conference has been condemned in the Jewish community “for its deeply offensive, antisemitic content and goals,” the letter focuses on the fact the conference is co-sponsored by three academic units at UCSC: the CRES department, the Center for Racial Justice, and the Center for Creative Ecologies, the faculty members wrote.

    “While these three units may justify their co-sponsorship as a legitimate expression of academic freedom, we vehemently disagree,” they wrote. “It is an outrage that three departments at a publicly funded university are not only sponsoring a politically motivated and directed conference that limits participation to those who agree with the conference’s antisemitic goals, they are committing their department to embracing these goals, thereby threatening their own faculty and students, and members of the entire campus community. This is not a legitimate expression of academic freedom, but rather an egregious abuse of it.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/17/2023 – 20:45

  • Top Japanese Energy Trader Warns 'World Running Short Of LNG For Energy Transition' 
    Top Japanese Energy Trader Warns ‘World Running Short Of LNG For Energy Transition’ 

    Liquefied natural gas (LNG) plays a pivotal role in the world’s changing energy landscape. By substituting dirtier fuels, LNG curtails carbon dioxide emissions and enhances air quality. This underscores its vital importance in the energy transition. 

    Bloomberg recently spoke with Kenichi Hori, president of Japanese trading house Mitsui & Co., who said global LNG demand will likely be much higher than forecasted and the current “pipeline of projects” won’t be enough. 

    “Announced projects in the world still won’t make up for the supply needed when considering the energy transition that will take several decades,” Hori said. 

    Hori is one of Japan’s top traders of LNG and believes, just like Chevron Corp. and Shell Plc, that the fuel will play a crucial long-term role in the energy transition. His comments follow a fracturing of the global LNG market as Europe no longer sources a majority of the fuel from Moscow but instead relies on the US and other countries abroad.  

    According to BloombergNEF data, global LNG demand is set to rise 3.4% annually over 2022-26, reaching about 444 million metric tons. This comes as countries and companies view LNG as one of the cleanest fossil fuels that can lower emissions. Bloomberg noted supply will be tight until 2026 – after that, new projects are forecasted to come online. 

    Hori pointed out his firm has “projects in the US, Middle East, and Africa” to ensure a diverse supply chain. 

    He added his firm is interested in signing a contract with Qatar. He stated the Middle Eastern country is an “important source of LNG” as Japan strives for further diversification. 

    Besides LNG, Hori invested $6.4 billion in an offshore wind project off Taiwan and exploring opportunities in e-methanol.  

    “All these projects are going to shape the future of our portfolio that is transitioning from a traditional energy business to a low-carbon-intensive era,” he said.

    Last month, Lorenzo Simonelli, chairman and CEO of service company Baker Hughes, was quoted by Reuters at Gastech, the industry’s largest conference in Singapore, as saying, “Natural gas will continue to play a critical role as a bridging and destination fuel for the energy transition.”

    The biggest takeaway is that LNG has a bright future as it becomes the ‘transition fuel’ as the world progresses to net-zero emissions by 2050. 

     

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/17/2023 – 20:25

  • DeSantis Draws Red Line On Gaza Refugees, GOP Field Follows Suit (Except Nikki Haley)
    DeSantis Draws Red Line On Gaza Refugees, GOP Field Follows Suit (Except Nikki Haley)

    Authored by Philip Wegmann via RealClear Politics,

    Just three days: That’s how long it took for Republicans to adopt a new orthodoxy on how the Biden administration should respond to Palestinian refugees fleeing the violence in Gaza.

    Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis went first.

    “I don’t know what Biden’s going to do, but we cannot accept people from Gaza into this country as refugees,” DeSantis said in Iowa on Saturday, establishing a red line that the other frontrunners for the Republican presidential nomination would soon adopt.

    As many as 2 million civilians are without food, water, and shelter in Gaza as Israel prepares to invade the densely populated region in response to a deadly Hamas terrorist attack earlier this month. While the White House has backed Israel from the start, the administration has also pressed powers in the region to open a humanitarian corridor to escape the bloodshed.

    The final destination of those refugees, Republicans now say, should not be the United States. But they did not slam the door in unison. In a split screen on Sunday, DeSantis and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley seemed to differ sharply on how the United States ought to respond.

    Former President Trump, meanwhile, remained silent.

    DeSantis reiterated his red line on refugees during an interview with “Face the Nation,” telling Margaret Brennan of CBS that “those Gaza refugees, Palestinian Arabs, should go to Arab countries. The U.S. should not be absorbing any of those.” And he reiterated his warning that, while “not everyone is a member of Hamas,” the culture in Gaza is so “toxic” that welcoming large numbers of refugees “would increase antisemitism” and “anti-Americanism” in the United States.

    Haley rejected that broad characterization during a CNN interview Sunday, telling Jake Tapper that a large portion of Palestinians bristle under Hamas in Gaza.

    “There are so many of these people who want to be free from this terrorist rule. They want to be free from all of that,” she said before adding that Americans have always been sympathetic to the idea “that you can separate civilians from terrorists.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The former ambassador also called on Middle Eastern countries to step up and provide for Palestinians desperate to avoid the crossfire.

    “Where are the Arab countries? Where are they?” Haley asked.

    “Where is Qatar? Where is Lebanon? Where is Jordan? Where is Egypt? Do you know we give Egypt over a billion dollars a year? Why aren’t they opening the gates? Why aren’t they taking the Palestinians?”

    When asked specifically if Haley believed that the United States should welcome refugees fleeing the crisis, a spokesman for Haley told RealClearPolitics on Monday that the ambassador “opposes the U.S. taking in Gazans” and that Haley believes “Hamas-supporting countries like Iran, Qatar, and Turkey should take any refugees.”

    As poll numbers tighten in the race to be positioned as Trump’s possible, supporters of the Florida governor seized on that statement as evidence Haley had flip-flopped on the question. Hours later, when Trump said in Iowa that “we aren’t bringing in anyone from Gaza,” the DeSantis campaign suggested that the former president was plagiarizing DeSantis.

    “Trump literally needs a teleprompter in order to finally catch up with a position DeSantis took three days ago on Gaza refugees,” DeSantis spokesman Andrew Romeo told RCP.

    During a campaign stop in Iowa, Trump promised to update and enforce his travel ban to include anyone from Gaza. He went further, vowing to deny entry into the United States to anyone who adhered to “anti-American” ideologies. “If you empathize with radical Islamic terrorists and extremists, you’re disqualified,” he said. “If you want to abolish the state of Israel, you’re disqualified.”

    Trump allies are fond of accusing DeSantis of copying and pasting the former president whenever the governor espouses policies adopted during the previous administration. This time, DeSantis supporters argue it is the other way around.

    Ken Cuccinelli, who served as Trump’s deputy Homeland Security secretary, told RCP that DeSantis had become “the standard-bearer for standing with Israel and protecting American citizens.”

    An immigration hawk and chairman of the pro-DeSantis super PAC, Never Back Down, Cuccinelli said that DeSantis “took the position to ban importing Gaza’s population without hesitation while everyone else is now following his lead.”

    First-time candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who is mired in fourth place in the polls, also added his voice to the emerging chorus of GOP voices. “Vivek would not allow refugees from Gaza into the U.S.,” a Ramaswamy spokeswoman told RCP. Instead, the businessman would look to help facilitate “their emigration to other countries, but this is not an issue where we should risk U.S. security or trade off the well-being of Americans here in the homeland.”

    Support for Israel in the wake of the Hamas attack has been bipartisan and immediate. Conservative consensus on the refugee question took time to evolve.

    Writing in the Wall Street Journal on Sunday, Jonathan Schanzer, a former terrorism analyst for the Treasury Department and a senior vice president at the Foundation for the Defense for Democracies, argued that the responsibility for sheltering refugees should fall on “Hamas’ enablers,” such as Iran, Turkey, and Qatar.

    Some Democrats, like New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman, have called on the Biden administration to welcome refugees. “Fifty percent of the population in Gaza are children. The international community as well as the United States should be prepared to welcome refugees from Palestine while being very careful to vet and not allow members of Hamas,” the progressive “Squad” member said.

    Populist conservatives such as political operative Ryan James Girdusky condemned that idea over the weekend and see the Republican rejection of those calls as part of a larger GOP evolution.

    “For decades, Republicans have been begging politicians to pump the breaks on immigration, but refugees especially,” Girdusky told RCP before arguing that welcoming refugees from Gaza would be tantamount to “importing antisemitism and intolerance.”

    “Their ideology does not change because they cross national borders. That’s not to mention the genuine fear that terrorists can enter as refugees, which has happened a few times in the past,” the author of the National Populist Newsletter added. “Republican candidates who want to expand refugee status to Palestinians are out of touch with their voters.”

    The conflict in the Middle East comes at a moment when Republicans are increasingly divided on the role the United States ought to take on the world stage. And while there is widespread support for Israel among the GOP, many in the 2024 field have grown critical of military aid for Ukraine. Former Vice President Mike Pence said over the weekend that when you have “leaders in the Republican Party signaling retreat on the world stage,” enemies are more likely to attack U.S. allies.

    He pointed specifically at “voices of appeasement like Donald Trump, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Ron DeSantis that I believe have run contrary to the tradition in our party that America is the leader of the free world.”

    For his part, DeSantis ended the weekend at Tampa International Airport. The governor signed an executive order earlier last week directing Florida’s Department of Emergency Management to begin logistical and evacuation efforts of Floridians stuck in Israel after commercial airlines began canceling flights, leaving U.S. citizens stranded in the region. On Sunday evening, nearly 300 Americans returned stateside on a jetliner chartered by the state of Florida with more scheduled in the coming days.

    “I am proud of how quickly we have been able to activate resources and do what the federal government could not – get Floridians and other Americans back home,” the governor said in a statement.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/17/2023 – 20:05

  • Meat-Giant Tyson Foods Reveals New Insect Plant In 2025
    Meat-Giant Tyson Foods Reveals New Insect Plant In 2025

    Tyson Foods Inc. is buying a stake in insect-protein company Protix BV. The two companies will collaborate to establish a manufacturing facility in the US to produce bug-based meal and oil, typically used in fish feed and dog food. 

    The American meatpacker said Tuesday that it agreed to buy a stake in Dongen, Netherlands-based Protix BV to help fund its expansion. The companies will also form a joint venture to build and operate a US facility that will produce bug-based meal and oil, which are typically used in fish feed and dog food. Financial terms of the deal weren’t disclosed. —Bloomberg 

    “It’s a multibillion-dollar industry opportunity that has tremendous growth potential, and we see Protix as being a leader there,” Tyson CFO John Tyson said in an interview. 

    Tyson said, “In the long run, insect-protein inclusion in animal-feed diets can be a real thing that exists and can be one that is good for people, planet and animals.”

    Protix already supplies insect-based protein to pet food makers Nestle SA and Mars Inc. The company was established in 2009, and the partnership with Tyson will expand operations internationally. 

    “It is definitely a huge way to establish ourselves into an international context,” Protix CEO Kees Aarts said. He added the deal with Tyson is a “tipping point we have been working for.” 

    Aarts said the US plant will not be ready until 2025. He said the new facility will be four times larger than its existing facility in the Netherlands. 

    Slowly but surely, the World Economic Forum and major corporations appear to be resetting the global food supply chain. WEF has been very vocal about how the masses must give up beef because cow farts are polluting the air and, instead, eat insects. 

    Also… 

    Corporate media has been trying to convince the masses… 

    In Europe, an additive made out of powdered crickets has already made its way into pizza, pasta, and cereals.  

    Tyson’s foray into bug production for animal food is an ominous sign that the meat giant could also be planning edible insects for human consumption. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/17/2023 – 19:45

  • Green Movement Still Steamrolling Rational Resistance To Climate Chicanery
    Green Movement Still Steamrolling Rational Resistance To Climate Chicanery

    Authored by James Varney via RealClear Wire,

    After years as a federal agent helping the Drug Enforcement Administration hunt drug lords across Central Asia, and years more teaching in Maryland classrooms, Robin Shaffer anticipated a quiet retirement watching the deep swells roll across the Atlantic and crash on to the broad Jersey Shore.

    Instead, he finds himself embroiled in a fight. As a leader of a grassroots group, Protect Our Coast NJ, Shaffer, 53, is taking on an international company and politicians in Trenton backing Ocean Wind 1, a $10 billion proposal to line the Jersey Shore with 98 wind turbines whose 722-foot propeller whirls would dwarf the Washington Monument and Statue of Liberty.

    It’s been an uphill battle, with the group “taking in nickels and dimes” and “selling T-shirts and magnets.” The local press seems indifferent to their cause, he said, noting that no outlets covered a public meeting he held at a pub, perhaps fittingly, with “Cheers” and “Frasier” actor Kelsey Grammer, one of Hollywood’s few prominent conservatives.

    “There’s this argument made that we must be bought off, sort of, ‘Why fight the Green Revolution? Don’t you care about the environment?’” Shaffer said. “But we don’t have any corporate sponsors or major funding. It’s very much a David vs. Goliath kind of thing.”

    Protect Our Coast NJ, an all-volunteer outfit with a budget of less than $100,000, is one example of an overwhelming disparity that has emerged in the debate over the aggressive push for renewable energy in response to what President Biden calls the “existential threat” of climate change. While once upon a time there may have been scrappy environmentalists combating the corporate might of Big Oil, major fossil fuel producers and conservative philanthropies provide little supporting research challenging climate change, Shaffer and other people interviewed for this article said. As a result, the money and the muscle and the lawyers are now aligned with what they call Big Green.

    Government largesse, shot into the stratosphere by hundreds of taxpayer billions President Biden shoveled to green energy companies and backers through the Inflation Reduction Act, is just the crest of this wave of momentum on behalf of a “climate emergency.”

    Powering the apparent juggernaut are philanthropists who have donated billions, corporate sponsors of environmental groups that look like a who’s who of Wall Street and Silicon Valley, attorneys at white-shoe firms and Ivy League law schools, prosecutors paid privately but operating under a district attorney’s umbrella, along with media and academics who hammer the narrative home.

    “This whole movement is pushed by a small but very powerful elite that controls Washington and the media, but not the way your average American thinks,” said William Happer, an emeritus physics professor at Princeton University who founded the CO2 Coalition in 2015 to advance the argument that global warming is not an existential threat.

    “You think, ‘What can you do?’” Happer said. “They have the media under control, they have politicians, professional and scientific groups and publications are controlled by them, and it’s all driven by money.”

    The corporate sponsors of the American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE), for instance, include titans of tech and private enterprise such as Amazon, Google, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Meta and others. Google is also working with the Sierra Club, while the Environmental Defense Fund lists General Electric and DuPont as allies on its website.

    Liberal billionaire Michael Bloomberg pledged another $500 million to kill the coal industry in September, a massive injection of cash that brings to more than $1 billion the amount he has committed to his Beyond Carbon launched in 2019. Another $1.1 billion was pledged by liberal venture capitalist John Doerr to build a climate change school at Stanford University, and Tom Steyer, like Bloomberg a former Democrat presidential candidate, has put millions of his billions behind similar global warming initiatives.

    Shaffer said Protect Our Coast is hiring attorneys he hopes “will do a good job,” but powerful lawyers are already aligned with the “climate emergency” camp. Since 2009 Columbia University Law School has had a Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, while the venerable New York firm of Shearman & Sterling, with 850 attorneys, is partnered with ACORE.

    Whether Shearman & Sterling offers ACORE anything beyond financial backing is unclear; neither responded to a request for comment from RealClearInvestigations. Michael Gerrard, director of the Sabin Center, says its attorneys do not see themselves as activists working on behalf of environmentalists but rather partners in the push for a renewable energy future.

    “The Sabin Center conducts legal analysis and supports strong action on climate change,” Gerrard said. “The Sabin Center does not file lawsuits, but it often files amicus briefs and comment letters.”

    In all cases, he noted, the center is “in support of such [renewable energy] facilities, and opposing those who are against such facilities – typically municipalities, and sometimes NIMBY groups.”

    A Who’s Who of Wall Street and Silicon Valley

    The David vs. Goliath dynamic is compounded by government funding. Academic grants, scientific funding, and now, through the Inflation Reduction Act, U.S. taxpayer money for the environment go almost exclusively to what advocates characterize as green energy projects. Ultimately, the Inflation Reduction Act, which supporters predicted would cost taxpayers $391 billion, will likely cost some $1.2 trillion, according to an analysis by Goldman Sachs.  

    Just how much the U.S. government spends on global warming research is nearly impossible to calculate, since money comes from so many different departments. The Government Accounting Office, which conducts research at the behest of members of Congress, has not looked at the subject since 2018, when it calculated the cost had been $13.2 billion in the previous decade. 

    That money flows almost exclusively to those who support the climate emergency argument. 

    “It’s real. If you were to submit a proposal to the federal government – whether it’s NSF, NOAA or NASA – that was challenging the narrative, you would not have much chance at all of getting funded,” said former Obama energy official Steven Koonin, a theoretical physicist and engineering professor at New York University. “Whereas if you wrote a proposal that supported the narrative, you’re in.” 

    RCI sought comment from all three of the federal agencies Koonin mentioned. Only NASA acknowledged receipt of the questions; none has responded.

    Judith Curry, a prominent skeptic of apocalyptic warnings regarding climate change and a former professor at Georgia Tech, looked at academe’s politicization and dependence on government financing in her book, “Climate Uncertainty and Risk.”

    “Power politics by activist scientists to advance a clear political agenda has inflamed and polarized the climate change debate within the community of climate scientists,” Curry told RCI. “Calls for proposals from the federal funding agencies implicitly assume the dominance of human-caused global warming. Hence scientists have little motivation to work on anything else. The end result is research that analyzes the results of climate model simulations to infer dire societal consequences.”

    Tarred as Shills for Big Oil

    Despite the disparity in funding and resources, climate emergency skeptics are often dismissed as shills for energy companies. Yet the CO2 Coalition, for example, includes Happer, a member of the National Academy of Science; John Clausen, who won the 2022 Nobel Prize in Physics; and Patrick Moore, a co-founder and former director of Greenpeace.

    A cursory web search on the Coalition turns up multiple stories of how it once received $1 million from ExxonMobil and articles about Happer’s brief stint with the Trump administration, all couched in language suggesting the Coalition’s work is biased.

    Regardless of where the grant originated, $1 million is a paltry sum in the context of global warming largesse. In September alone those pushing the idea that global warming presents an existential threat stood to get 2,000 times that amount just from Bloomberg and a pledge from the liberal Rockefeller Foundation to spend $1 billion “to advance climate solutions.” Jeff Bezos, Amazon founder and owner of The Washington Post, has pledged up to $10 billion for his Earth Fund.

    In addition, the big energy companies appear to have largely stopped funding research challenging the climate emergency narrative, in some cases bending to the prevailing winds – or solar rays or what have you – of political expediency.

    “Where is this oil money people talk about? I wish I could get some,” said Anthony Watts, who runs the Watts Up With That website. “ExxonMobil hasn’t the faintest idea who I am. The notion energy company money has corrupted any of the findings that run counter to the approved narrative on global warming is a fallacy designed to support the tribalism in the field.”

    RCI reached out to numerous major energy companies. ExxonMobil asked for specific questions, which a spokeswoman did not answer, and the others did not respond.

    Watts has run his site, which dubs itself “the world’s most viewed site on global warming and climate change,” since 2006. In that time, the issue of global warming has gone from a computer model theory to “settled science” to a “climate emergency,” and the money and power has grown accordingly, he said.

    “I thought, when I started, if I demonstrated biases in the temperature readings – significant biases – there would be a correction, because it’s science, there would be this ‘we got this wrong, let’s fix this,’ thinking,” he said. “But it has morphed from its infancy of studying numbers and data to some big business conglomerate.”

    Watts has experienced firsthand how social media helps frame global warming as a looming catastrophe. Despite his site’s viewership, he says, it was “demonetized” by WordAds, which enables ads to be run on WordPress websites. There was no specific post cited for violating any terms, according to Watts, but WordPress notified him the fees would no longer be collected after Google announced “they were removing ad services from all climate skeptic cites.”

    Wildly Inflated Numbers

    Similar institutional moves, along with the marked funding disparities, have largely muffled the arguments made by those who disagree with the “climate emergency” conclusion.

    “The truth is, we are essentially a grassroots movement of people who don’t believe a crisis exists, certainly not one worth destroying the economy of the world,” he said.

    The uneven playing field marks a change. Almost a decade ago, progressives such as New Yorker writer Jane Mayer – author of “Dark Money: The Hidden History of the Billionaires Behind the Rise of the Radical Right” – were warning of secret networks funding climate change denial. There is no database aggregating funding for such groups, though progressive scholars have published research highlighting what they admit are wildly inflated numbers. A 2018 paper published in the journal Climactic Change, titled “Obstructing Action: Foundation Funding and U.S. Climate Change Counter-movement Organizations,” reports billions in grants between 2003-2018, though its authors note “we cannot ascertain that any particular grant supports activities directly related to climate change unless specifically stated on the grant records.” Instead, they add the gross totals of all contributions to conservative organizations they consider climate skeptics, such as Americans for Prosperity, the Reason Foundation, the Federalist Society, and the Manhattan Institute.

    Conservative groups mentioned in the article, such as the Heritage Foundation and the Heartland Foundation, continue to publish critiques of global warming alarmism. But representatives noted their budgets are divided among many policy silos and they do not have the corporate backing enjoyed by the climate emergency camp. In 2023, Heritage said its budget grew to $100 million as part of a major fundraising initiative, but in the past it has usually operated with around $80 million annually.

    Diana Furchtgott-Roth, director of energy, climate and the environment at Heritage, noted that it gets “less than 5 percent of its money from corporate sponsors and no company contributes more than 1 percent.” And that money is spread out over various departments so that only a fraction of it is devoted to combatting the alarmist global warming narrative, she said.

    Climate skeptics says such figures are laughable.  

    “We have comparatively few dollars while the other side now literally has trillions,” said Steve Milloy, who operates the Junk Science website, pointing to money that European countries, the U.N., and other bodies have given for global warming research or to prop up green energy companies with loans and tax credits.

    Others in the trenches, more or less, echoed Shaffer’s experience in New Jersey.

    “We are up against sleazy lawyers and lobbyists and a fancy propaganda campaign every time,” said Kevin Emmerich, whose grassroots Basin and Range Watch has gone up against major solar projects in Nevada. “The big solar and wind projects that end up being the ones we fight are all being proposed by the companies who have the most money. They have the money to lobby congress and pay big lawyers. They also tend to buy out little towns.”

    As lone laptop warrior operations like Milloy’s and Watts’s attest, whatever money that flows to skeptical camps to tar the other side is slight. The same appears to be true on the international scene, as the Global Warming Policy Foundation, a group that seeks to counter the notion that wrenching changes to Western economies are needed to combat global warming, reports an annual budget of roughly $475,000 in 2022. The Sierra Club alone had a budget of $151 million that year.

    Companies have to a large extent begun to infuse environmental activists with cash as a form of “greenwashing,” said Furchtgott-Roth. The alarmist camp has become so hostile and flush that is simply easier for corporations to avoid potential problems.

    Role Reversal

    “It’s no longer just an ideological fight where one group of people may have the better view,” she said. “This has become a matter of theological importance, they see this as a matter of good vs. evil.”

    For now, the role of scrappy opponent, once held by environmentalists, has switched to opponents of massive “green” energy projects. Small players like Protect Our Coast NJ take some solace in the rising costs of such projects which has delayed the launch of Ocean 1 until 2026. The group drew more than 100 people – but only one reporter – to a recent event marred by a downpour. Shaffer, pointing to polling that shows support for the project has plummeted in New Jersey, vows to keep up the fight.

    “Despite obvious attempts by the Fourth Estate to ignore the efforts of thousands of New Jerseyans to protect the marine ecosystem and the Jersey Shore, our message is getting out,” he said.

    That message will win in the end even with the lopsided nature of the debate, Happer predicted. He compares the current landscape to what prevailed with the eugenics movement a century ago.

    “Every little town had its ‘Eugenics Society,’ decent white ladies got together to drink tea and discuss it, the presidents of Harvard and Princeton, the scientific journals – the whole ‘Establishment’ believed in eugenics,” Happer said. “It was all nonsense, of course, and ended when Germany took eugenics to its logical conclusion. Now, some unfortunate county or state will implement all this and the people will rise up in fury, the policies are so crazy people will simply rebel. It happens again and again in human history when something seems invincible.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/17/2023 – 19:25

  • The Left's Cognitive Dissonance Crisis Exposed In One Tweet
    The Left’s Cognitive Dissonance Crisis Exposed In One Tweet

    The last 10 days – since Hamas terrorists invaded Israel and slaughtered 100s of men, women, and children – have been remarkable from an American political discourse perspective. The pretzel-like logic exposed as caring, compassionate, tolerant progressives attempted to comment (or chose not to comment) on the atrocities without calling them atrocities, or supporting colonialism/apartheid/oppression, or being anti-semitic, or being pro-terrorist… was stunning.

    We weren’t alone in our astonishment, as Robert Sterling took to X and summarized succinctly:

    “It’s been amazing this week to watch the left invert every rhetorical device they’ve used since 2020, all to avoid having to criticize terrorists dedicated to Jewish genocide.

    It would be hilarious, if it weren’t so reprehensible.”

    Examples, you say?

    He has those…

    2020: Silence is violence.

    2023: People can’t be expected to comment on every situation. It’s okay to just keep silent, especially while events are still unfolding.

    * * *

    2020: If you’re nitpicking small details instead of focusing on the big picture, you’re doing so to avoid your complicity in atrocities.

    2023: 40 babies weren’t actually beheaded. 40 babies may have been killed, and some of them may have been beheaded, but that’s not the same as 40 getting beheaded. Details matter.

    * * *

    2020: Universities must proactively take a stand and speak out in opposition to racism. “Academic freedom” is a false concept used to enforce oppression.

    2023: Universities need to maintain neutrality and ensure that they do not make any statements that jeopardize the principle of academic freedom, which is a paramount virtue in the realm of scholarship.

    * * *

    2020: You must immediately and forcefully condemn an attack, even if investigations are ongoing.

    2023: You can’t expect us to release statements opposing an attack within four days, when the facts are still being discovered. Israel hasn’t even allowed UN investigators at the scenes of these “alleged massacres.”

    * * *

    2020: People are responsible for their words, even if they are just working-class teenagers in small towns. Freedom of speech doesn’t mean freedom from consequences.

    2023: Graduate students at the most prestigious university in the world are just kids and cannot be held accountable for statements they sign. This is cancel culture.

    * * *

    2020: Believe all women.

    2023: Where is the physical evidence of these “alleged rapes”?

    * * *

    2020: It’s not enough to be non-racist. If you are not actively anti-racist, it means that you are, in fact, racist.

    2023: How dare you question whether I support terrorists just because I haven’t actively spoken out against Hamas freedom fighters.

    * * *

    2020: We don’t get to tell people in affected communities how to deal with their pain in the aftermath of violence.

    2023: It is Israel’s responsibility to ensure that violence doesn’t escalate.

    * * *

    2020: Anything that disproportionately affects one group of people is oppression and must be condemned.

    2023: Settlers—a term that includes all Israeli Jews—are not civilians and are therefore all valid targets for attacks.

    * * *

    But, hey, when did being genuine ever count for anything…

    To be fair, hypocrisy has been turned up to ’11’ on both sides of the aisle, it’s just the left seem to do it with less shame than anyone else.

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/17/2023 – 19:05

  • Deaths Of Despair Afflict More Cohorts Than Case-Deaton Originally Found
    Deaths Of Despair Afflict More Cohorts Than Case-Deaton Originally Found

    Authored by Yves Smith via NakedCapitalism.com,

    At the risk of over-hoisting from an important piece of analysis, below are some of the key sections from Anusar Farooqui, who writes as Policy Tensor, on the extent of the “death of despair” catastrophe. His piece, Yes, High-School Graduates Are Dying of Despair, is important because he demonstrates that the rising death rates over time extend even into those with some college education.

    Farooqu got in an argument with Matt Yglesias on Twitter over the body of work by Ann Case and Angus Deaton on so-called deaths of despair, in which they found what they called an AIDS-level surge of mortality among less-educated whites in middle age. Not only have Case and Deaton refined their analysis, but other studies have identified an increase in early deaths from suicide and addiction in other groups.

    For background, from our first post in 2015 on Case-Deaton findings:By Pressreach

    Top Biotech Pick Unveiled

    Keep abreast of hot stocks with timely market news. Get the latest pick right here. Click here!

    The authors found that from 1999 to 2013, the death rate among non-Hispanic whites aged 45 to 54 with a high school education or less rose, while it fell in other age and ethnic groups. This is an HIV-level silent epidemic: AIDS killed an estimated 650,000 from the mid-1980s to present, while an estimated close to half-million died in half that time period who would have lived had their mortality rates fallen in line with the rest of the population. It is hard to overstate the significance of these findings. From the New York Times:

    “It is difficult to find modern settings with survival losses of this magnitude,” wrote two Dartmouth economists, Ellen Meara and Jonathan S. Skinner, in a commentary to the Deaton-Case analysis that was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

    This cross-country comparison from the study shows how extreme an outlier these middle aged whites are:

    The big culprits are linked to despair, namely “poisoning” which is opioid abuse first and alcoholism second, and suicides. Case and Deaton dug into the underlying statistics, and found distressingly high levels of pain and impaired health in this age group, so pain and physical impairment may well be bigger culprits than economic distress:

    And the rise in death rates took place among men and women, in all of the four major regions of the country the authors examined, and obesity rates were not a driving factor.

    These pathologies have been showing up in other demographics. For instance, the Wall Street Journal reported in May 2023 that death rates in the 1 to 19 year old age group had risen at an unprecedented rate from 2019 to 2021 due to guns, suicides, car accidents, and drugs.

    Now to the immediate discussion. Farooqui took issue with a claim by Matt Yglesias, bolstered by Eric Levitz, that the Case-Deaton data was less significant that it might seem because it lumped together those with no high school degrees with high school diplomas. Yglesias and Levitz argued that the “deaths of despair” were only taking place among high school dropouts and so the white working class was not in as terrible shape as it might seem.

    Farooqui pointed out that Case and Deanton had shown that death rates among the middle aged were rising, albeit relatively modestly, even among those with some college education. But then he turns to the crux of the disagreement:

    However, they [Case and Deaton] do not distinguish between [less than] HS and HS, and therefore do not address the specific issue highlighted by Levitz: “… it is actually an acute crisis of mortality of the bottom 10%.”

    This is an empirical question. We attack this problem using CDC data collated by Wharton. They have age-specific mortality rates by educational attainment. The ordinal categories are

    In order to obtain a more representative graph, we use age-specific population weights to combine age-specific hazard ratios. The next graph displays the population-weighted average of hazard ratios for our age-specific cohorts. By construction, this weighted average of hazard ratios is not confounded by any increase in average age within discrete age brackets. And, as explained above, because we’re looking at hazard ratios, it is also not confounded by the common component. This is as kosher as it gets in this business.

    We can see that the upward trend in hazard ratios is not confined to high-school dropouts. It is true that the trend is most pronounced for them. But the upward trend is also significant for high-school graduates and those with some college under their belt. The all-cause hazard ratio has increased by 3.28 for high-school dropouts, 2.08 for high school graduates, and 1.27 for those with some college. The upshot is that, on the wrong side of the diploma divide, despair goes very far up indeed.

    And then he drives the point home (I’ve omitted the charts in this section, but Farooqui showed he has the goods):

    All-cause mortality has a very strong signal. But the evidence for American working class despair is not confined to mortality. Prime-age labor force participation contains the same signal of despair: four out of every nine Americans with only a high-school diploma are not even looking for a job. It’s not like high-school graduates can survive on one pay-check! These are obviously discouraged workers in despair.

    Take family reproduction—perhaps the most important factor in human well-being. Following the Sixties revolution in behavioral norms, the rate of family reproduction stabilized for college graduates by the 1990s. But it has continued to fall for high school graduates. See my note from three years ago. And if you’re interested a deeper dive, see Andrew Cherlin’s work.

    Or, take divorce rates. For college graduates, 29.7 percent of first marriages end in divorce by age 46. For high-school graduates, 48.2 percent of first marriages end in divorce. (The table’s from here.)

    We can keep going. The truth is that American working-class despair is such a robust, large-scale pattern that one can recover the signal from practically anything we care to measure—mortality, morbidity, BMI, labor force participation, marriage rates, child-out-of-wedlock rates, you name it.

    So, I stand by my challenge to Matthew Yglesias.

    Well-off Americans are so removed from these cohorts, usually encountering them in various service, as in servile, positions where they have to put on a good face as a condition of getting paid, that they can pretend that the lesser orders aren’t suffering in financial and emotional terms.

    One proof is despite Case’s and Deaton’s landmark work, there’s no interest in what to do to alleviate this personal and collective disaster. Our version of “Let them eat cake” has gone from “let them learn to code” to “Deprogram them all”.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/17/2023 – 18:45

  • Arab Leaders Refuse To Meet Biden As Protests Rage Around The World After Gaza Hospital Strike
    Arab Leaders Refuse To Meet Biden As Protests Rage Around The World After Gaza Hospital Strike

    Update (2100ET): Wednesday is shaping up as quite a global day of rage as the following series of clips from major cities around the world demonstrates.

    Iraq:

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    Turkey

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    Lebanon

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    Jordan

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    Qatar

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    Iran

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    Spain

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    Egypt

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    Yemen

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    Germany

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    Greece

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    Canada

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    Morocco

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    * * *

    Update(1820ET): As expected, the fallout from the al-Ahli Baptist Hospital bombing has been swift, with a domino effect of negative consequences both for diplomacy and on the ‘Arab street’. The situation outside the US Embassy in Beirut is deteriorating tonight, with reports of riot police and tear gas being deployed against large crowds waving Hezbollah flags. 

    But more importantly, and just as Air Force One is departing Washington for Israel, the White House has canceled the entire leg of Biden’s trip to Jordan. The confirmation was issued within the same hour that Arab leaders announced they were unwilling to meet with Biden, given the US is Israel’s biggest funder and supporter.

    Biden issued a statement “deepest condolences” to victims of Gaza “hospital explosion,” according to the White House official statement:

    After consulting with Jordan King Abdullah II & in light of the days of mourning announced by Palestinian Authority President Abbas, President Biden will postpone his travel to Jordan and the planned meeting with these two leaders and Egypt President Sisi.

    The President sent his deepest condolences for the innocent lives lost in the hospital explosion in Gaza, and wished a speedy recovery to the wounded.

    So even before arriving in Israel, the Tuesday massacre – which Israel is actually blaming on Palestinian militants (specifically PIJ) – has effectively served to box-in Biden. France’s Macron has just issued a condemnation to boot, saying “nothing can justify targeting civilians” in a statement which appears to place blame squarely on the Israelis. Biden will now also face the pressure to join the chorus of international condemnation. “International humanitarian law is binding on all and must enable the protection of civilian populations. Humanitarian access to the Gaza Strip must be opened up without delay,” the French foreign ministry said in the statement.

    Here’s what Jordan had to say:

    “There is no point in doing anything at this time other than stopping this war,” Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said on Al Jazeera Arabic early Wednesday morning. “There is no benefit to anyone in holding a summit at this time.”

    There are emerging reports that crowds are attempting to storm the US Embassy in Beirut, based on unconfirmed but widely circulating footage overnight (local time): 

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    Also, things continue popping off around the Israeli Embassy in Jordan…

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    According to one US special forces veteran, now journalist:

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    * * *

    Update(1610ET): The IDF, and PM Netanyahu have weighed in on the Gaza hospital bombing, which killed and injured hundreds: 

    Tal Heinrich, a spokesperson for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, told CNN Tuesday that the “IDF does not target hospitals,” adding, “we only target Hamas strongholds, arms depots and terror targets.”

    Heinrich’s comments came after Palestinian officials said that preliminary estimates indicate between 200 to 300 people were killed in an Israeli strike on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City.

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    The IDF issued a statement based on a preliminary investigation, claiming that it was an errant missile fired from within Gaza itself. The IDF alleges that Palestinian Islamic Jihad fired the rocket in a “failed shooting” that was intended for Israel.

    “According to intelligence information, from several sources we have, the Islamic Jihad [PIJ} terrorist organization is responsible for the failed shooting that hit the hospital,” the IDF statement said, as it appeared in English on the Government of Israel’s “X” account. PIJ responds:

    PALESTINIAN ISLAMIC JIHAD SPOKESMAN DENIES ISRAELI ALLEGATIONS THAT THE MILITANT GROUP IS RESPONSIBLE FOR GAZA HOSPITAL STRIKE

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    The international reaction has been swift, especially from regional heads of state, with Turkey’s Erdogan and Jordan’s King Abdullah being among the first to condemn the “war crime” and “massacre”. Abdullah said no one can be “silent” about it.

    Large evening protests have not only erupted in towns across the West Bank, especially in Ramallah, but in Arab capitals from Tunisia to Amman. There are fresh reports that Israel’s embassy in Jordan is coming under attack. Large groups of demonstrators have also been seen headed toward the US Embassy in Beirut.

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    Intifada 3.0?… but with signs this could spread across the Arab world in wake of the al-Ahli Hospital bombing in Gaza City:

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    Scenes from Amman, again which could spread to many other countries as the Palestinian death toll continues to rise:

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    Meanwhile, in more breaking news…

    WHITE HOUSE EYES $100 BILLION UKRAINE, ISRAEL AND BORDER ASK

    Will this event be the spark that sets the whole region on fire? Whether what Israel is claiming is true or not, we may be witnessing the first rumblings…

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    President Biden is on his way to Israel in Air Force One as all of this is escalating fast.

    Already, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has canceled a scheduled meeting with Biden, citing the “cold-blooded massacre”.

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    And in additional breaking news: Russia and the UAE have called for an extraordinary UN Security Council meeting after the strike on the hospital in Gaza, per Tass.

    * * *

    Update(1400ET): Horrific reports of a mass casualty bombing are emerging from Gaza, where a hospital suffered direct hit reportedly by Israeli airstrikes. Gaza’s health ministry has said there are at least 500 casualties in the aftermath of the hospital blast, with “hundreds of victims” buried under the rubble. Gaza sources also say that a UN-run school housing refugees was attacked.

    Initially, local emergency officials said there were at least 200 killed in the mid-evening bombing of al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza City, but the count has been steadily rising. Now, per Al Jazeera: “The health ministry in the Gaza Strip says at least 500 people have been killed in an Israeli attack on al-Ahli Arab Hospital.”

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    Graphic scenes are emerging…

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    Photographs are circulating of bodies scattered (intentionally blurred) outside of burning hospital wings:

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    This humanitarian catastrophe is unfolding as President Biden is en route to Israel. Likely many of the victims of the hospital attack were women and children.

    Certainly this greatly raises the pressure and the stakes for Biden, as the White House will have to ‘answer’ for this as Israel’s most powerful ally. No doubt the US administration is scrambling to prepare for how it will respond.

    * * *

    At this point, exchanges of fire between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and militants in south Lebanon, especially Hezbollah, have become a daily occurrence – and yet still a full assault from Hezbollah has been avoided. Many analysts have speculated that Israel could be holding off its expected major ground invasion of Gaza precisely to avoid provoking a ‘northern front’ from opening up.

    But there are continuing signs the situation is sliding toward that feared two-front scenario, as the IDF has initiated a plan to evacuate all civilians who live within two kilometers of the Lebanese border. They said the repeat rocket and mortar fire make it necessary, also in preparation for potential greater military action. 

    The country’s National Emergency Management Authority (NEMA) will oversee transferring of Israeli civilians to state-funded guesthouses. In total a whopping 28 towns and communities will be evacuated.

    Israeli army Merkava tanks, file image via AFP/Getty

    NEMA has listed them out as follows: Ghajar, Dishon, Kfar Yuval, Margaliot, Metula, Avivim, Dovev, Ma’ayan Baruch, Bar’am, Manara, Yiftah, Malkia, Misgav Am, Yir’on, Dafna, Arab al-Aramshe, Shlomi, Netu’a, Ya’ara, Shtula, Matat, Zar’it, Shomera, Betzet, Adamit, Rosh Hanikra, Hanita and Kfar Giladi.

    Many of these in the last several days saw residents flee due to rocket fire from the other side of the border.

    Hezbollah has issued new claims it has destroyed an IDF tank and other military assets. Already both sides have taken on a few casualties. 

    “Hezbollah carried out a number of attacks yesterday in order to try to divert our operational efforts [away from the Gaza Strip], under the direction and backing of Iran, while endangering the state of Lebanon and its citizens,” an IDF spokesman had said Monday.

    “We have increased our forces on the northern border and will respond aggressively to any activity against us,” the IDF said. “If Hezbollah dares to test us, the reaction will be deadly. The United States is giving us full backing.”

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    Dozens of rockets have been launched from Hezbollah positions in the last days. Israel has in response shelled militant positions in Lebanon, but has also hit Lebanese residential areas, prompting people in the area to flee.

    On Tuesday, Hezbollah announced that its fighters launched an anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) at a gathering of Israeli soldiers, which the group said resulted in “a number of casualties”.

    Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s main state backer Iran has continued ratcheting the threats against Israel:

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    A series of statements from multiple sides point toward continued escalation, which could explode well beyond the Gaza crisis: 

    Israel Ministry of Health: “The war may last a long time, prepare an emergency stock of food for 4 months.”

    Iranian Foreign Minister: “The expansion of the war to other fronts has begun to reach unavoidable stages.”

    IDF Spokesman: “Israel is prepared on its own both in the north and in the south.”

    Israeli Military Spokesman: “If Hezbollah commits a grave mistake, we will respond with devastating force never seen before.”

    Iranian leaders have gone so far as to issue threat of ‘preemptive attack’ if Israel continues decimating Gaza…

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    For now, the situation is expected to be contained given President Biden’s expected Wednesday trip to Israel. There’s widespread belief that Israeli will not go into Gaza with full force so long as the US leader is visiting. 

    Additionally, Israel is still facing condemnation and international pressure related to the Reuters crew which was fired upon: “On Friday, Issam Abdallah, a Reuters video journalist, was killed in southern Lebanon after missiles launched from the direction of Israel struck him,” writes the New York Times. “Six other journalists — from Reuters, Al Jazeera and Agence France-Presse — were also injured in the attack, which occurred near the village of Alma al-Shaab.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/17/2023 – 18:20

  • Zombie Firms: Navigating The Looming Threat Of Higher Interest Rates
    Zombie Firms: Navigating The Looming Threat Of Higher Interest Rates

    Authored by Robert Burrows via BondVigilantes.com,

    Everyone knows that the best way to kill a Zombie is to smash its brain. For Zombie firms, that killer blow is higher interest rates…

    Zombie firms are essentially companies that exist on borrowed time.

    They struggle to generate enough profits to cover their debt obligations, yet manage to stay afloat thanks to lenient borrowing conditions. The prolonged period of ultra-low interest rates following the 2008 financial crisis played a significant role in sustaining these firms, allowing them to refinance their debts at favourable terms.

    As a result, many of these entities have been able to continue operating, albeit with weakened balance sheets and limited growth prospects.

    Implications for the Economy

    The persistence of zombie firms has implications beyond individual company struggles. These entities tie up resources that could otherwise be invested in more productive and innovative ventures. Resources such as labour, capital, and market share are effectively locked within these stagnant firms, inhibiting the overall efficiency of the economy. This phenomenon can contribute to sluggish economic growth, reduced job creation, and a less dynamic business landscape.

    The Looming Threat: Higher Interest Rates

    One of the key factors enabling zombie firms to survive has been the availability of cheap credit. As central banks increase interest rates in response to improving economic conditions and/or inflation, the environment that has sustained these firms has shifted dramatically. Higher interest rates will lead to increased borrowing costs for these entities, potentially pushing some of them over the brink and into insolvency.

    While the removal of zombie firms might seem like a logical outcome, it is important to acknowledge the potential challenges that could arise from their mass extinction. A sudden wave of business closures could lead to a spike in unemployment and financial instability. Additionally, sectors that have relied on these firms for business relationships and transactions could experience disruptions, further rippling through the economy.

    How does the transmission work in the US?   

    If we think about the consumer, the first avenue to explore would be the mortgage market. With the vast majority of the US market fixing for 30 years, any impact from rising interest rates on existing mortgaged homeowners is limited. The increase in rates will, however, hit a small subset of new buyers. The below chart shows the current 30 year fixed rate mortgage versus the average rate of interest on mortgage debt outstanding. 

    Source: Bloomberg (31 September 2023)

    It’s clear that the mortgage market is largely immune in the short to medium term. Increased interest rates will, however, hurt those consumers with short term debt exposure, credit cards, car financing etc.

    Where I see the transmission mechanism at work is through the corporate sector and its impact on employment. Here I am going share some research from the team at Soc Gen which presented some interesting charts.

    Source: Bloomberg, St Louis Fed, Societe Generale, M&G (October 2023)

    The above chart is somewhat counterintuitive. As interest rates have increased meaningfully, net interest payments have in fact come down.  The conclusion or explanation is that corporates have managed to borrow long, take these proceeds and invest in short dated government bonds or money market funds. Not ideal for business investment but a great carry trade. This is essentially the reverse of the banking model where banks borrow on short term variable rates and lend at long term fixed rates. It hasn’t worked particularly well for the regional banks but as always finance is a zero sum game.

    However, we need to take a look under the bonnet as there is more to this than meets the eye.

    Source: Societe Generale, Quant, Factset

    Soc Gen’s research suggests that the largest 10% of companies have thus far been insulated from the effect of higher rates given they have been able to borrow long term at better rates. This is perhaps why we have not seen the effects as profoundly in the headline data. However, the bottom 50% of companies have seen a meaningful impact from higher interest rates. Despite the bottom 50% representing a minority of the overall non-financial market cap, this will have a significant impact in the real economy, as these firms – large employers in the US economy – suffer with debt burdens at increased interest rates.

    Source: Bloomberg (October 2023)

    Bankruptcies are beginning to rise but the market remains relatively calm to date with high yield spreads to government bonds at the lows.

    Source: Bank of America Meryll Lynch, Bloomberg (October 2023)

    Small businesses are incredibly important to the economy as they employ almost 50% of all US employees. Any significant impact to these companies will have a material impact on employment.  The concern is that higher rates will start to hit home from 2025 when large swathes of outstanding debt comes up for renewal.  The below chart shows the debt schedule of the Russell 2000. As these firms begin to roll their outstanding debts at significantly higher rates, we should see defaults continue to tick up. The below schedule suggest this could be a few years out.

    Source: Societe Generale

    Perhaps for now the Zombies sleep, but beware, night is upon us.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/17/2023 – 18:05

  • "We Are Being Lied To": Marc Andreessen's Techno-Optimist Manifesto Warns Civilization Depends On More AI, Not Less
    “We Are Being Lied To”: Marc Andreessen’s Techno-Optimist Manifesto Warns Civilization Depends On More AI, Not Less

    Amidst the deafening anti-technology rhetoric, Marc Andreessen emerges as a champion for the power and potential of tech with his latest essay: ‘The Techno-Optimist Manifesto‘., which builds on claims Andreessen made in a June essay titled “Why AI Will Save the World“.

    “We are being lied to,” Andreessen begins…

    We are told that technology takes our jobs, reduces our wages, increases inequality, threatens our health, ruins the environment, degrades our society, corrupts our children, impairs our humanity, threatens our future, and is ever on the verge of  ruining everything.

    We are told to be angry, bitter, and resentful about  technology.

    We are told to be pessimistic. The myth of Prometheus – in various updated forms like Frankenstein, Oppenheimer, and Terminator – haunts our nightmares. We are told to denounce our birthright – our intelligence, our control over nature, our ability to build a better world.

    We are told to be miserable about the future.

    However, Andreessen argues that these are all lies.

    Instead, with technology as humanity’s spearhead, the Silicon Valley legend foresees a future driven by growth, invention, and unstoppable progress.

    “…we have the tools, systems, and ideas to advance to a far superior way of living and being.”

    And he calls on people to embrace technology and work together to create a better world.

    Markets, fueled by technology, offer a decentralized, complex system that promotes collective achievement and prosperity.

    “We believe central planning is a doom loop; markets are an upward spiral.”

    This so-called techno-capital machine, with its unwavering belief in continuous evolution and progress, aligns itself with the power of intelligence and energy.

    “We believe the techno-capital machine of markets and innovation never ends, but instead spirals continuously upward. Comparative advantage increases specialization and trade.

    Prices fall, freeing up purchasing power, creating demand. Falling prices benefit everyone who buys goods and services, which is to say everyone.

    Human wants and needs are endless, and entrepreneurs continuously create new goods and services to satisfy those wants and needs, deploying unlimited numbers of people and machines in the process.

    This upward spiral has been running for hundreds of years, despite continuous howling from Communists and Luddites. Indeed, as of 2019, before the temporary COVID disruption, the result was the largest number of jobs at the highest wages and the highest levels of material living standards in the history of the planet. “

    Most specifically, as technology evolves, Artificial Intelligence stands as the linchpin for a new age, heralding limitless possibilities.

    “Artificial Intelligence is our alchemy, our Philosopher’s Stone – we are literally making sand think.

    We believe Artificial Intelligence is best thought of as a universal problem solver. And we have a lot of problems to solve.”

    More ominously, Andreessen warns:

    “We believe any deceleration of AI will cost lives. Deaths that were preventable by the AI that was prevented from existing is a form of murder.”

    Andreessen argues that ‘Techno-Optimist’ enemies “are not bad people – but rather bad ideas.”

    “Our present society has been subjected to a mass demoralization campaign for six decades – against technology and against life – under varying names like “existential risk”, “sustainability”, “ESG”, “Sustainable Development Goals”, “social responsibility”, “stakeholder capitalism”, “Precautionary Principle”, “trust and safety”, “tech ethics”, “risk management”, “de-growth”, “the limits of growth”.

    This demoralization campaign is based on bad ideas of the past – zombie ideas, many derived from Communism, disastrous then and now – that have refused to die.

    …

    Our enemy is deceleration, de-growth, depopulation – the nihilistic wish, so trendy among our elites, for fewer people, less energy, and more suffering and death.”

    But, there is hope:

    “We will explain to people captured by these zombie ideas that their fears are unwarranted and the future is bright.

    We believe these captured people are suffering from ressentiment – a witches’ brew of resentment, bitterness, and rage that is causing them to hold mistaken values, values that are damaging to both themselves and the people they care about.

    We believe we must help them find their way out of their self-imposed labyrinth of pain.

    We invite everyone to join us in Techno-Optimism.

    The water is warm.”

    In conclusion, Andreessen’s Techno-Optimist Manifesto is a call to action for all those who believe in the power of technology’s ability to change the world for the better, and fight the techno-pessimist “enemies”.

    We believe in the words of David Deutsch: “We have a duty to be optimistic. Because the future is open, not predetermined and therefore cannot just be accepted: we are all responsible for what it holds. Thus it is our duty to fight for a better world.”

    One thing to bear mind amid all this ‘almost utopia’ evocation, Andreessen and his partners stand to make cajillions more dollars from any continued growth in AI given their early investments in companies innovating in that area. Talking his book? Of course. But, unarguably, there are some good points.

    Read the full ‘Manifesto’ here…

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/17/2023 – 17:45

  • Biden Joins Truth Social, Immediately Gets Pummelled Into Oblivion
    Biden Joins Truth Social, Immediately Gets Pummelled Into Oblivion

    Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

    Leon Neal/Getty Images/Screenshot

    In what seems like an act of desperation, the Joe Biden campaign joined President Trump’s Truth Social platform, and posted a message asking for “converts”, prompting a torrent of responses essentially telling them where to go.

    In a second post, the Biden campaign used a clip of Ron DeSantis claiming Trump added $7.8T to the national debt, in a blatant attempt to sow division among conservatives:

    The campaign told Fox News that it is attempting to have “a little fun” on Truth Social, as well as holding “MAGA accountable on their own platform.”

    President Trump’s campaign spokesperson, Steven Cheung, said “Crooked Joe Biden and his team are finally acknowledging that Truth Social is hot as a pistol and the only place where real news happens.”

    Cheung added, “Unfortunately for Biden, his continuation of spreading misinformation to gaslight the American people in order to distract from his disastrous record won’t work and they’ll be ratio’d to oblivion.”

    How long before Biden’s handlers realise this just isn’t the place for them?

    Meanwhile, Trump himself commented on a gag order placed on him by a DC judge, noting “I’ll be the only politician in history that runs with a gag order where I’m not allowed to criticize people, can you imagine that? I’m not allowed to criticize people.”

    He added that he’s been indicted “more than Alphonse Capone.”

    In a separate appearance Trump said that he is willing to go to jail to beat Biden, noting “They think the only way they can catch me is to stop me from speaking, they want to take away my voice.”

    “This is weaponry, all being done because Joe Biden is losing the election, losing very, very badly to all of us in the polls. He’s losing badly,” Trump added.

    *  *  *

    Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

    ALERT! In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch.

    We need you to sign up for our free newsletter here.

    Support my sponsor – Summit Vitamins – super charge your health and well being.

    Also, we urgently need your financial support here.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/17/2023 – 17:25

  • Global Debt At Record Levels And The Free Lunch Is Over
    Global Debt At Record Levels And The Free Lunch Is Over

    Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

    Global debt rose $10 trillion to a record $397 trillion in the first half of 2023, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF).

    The big increase in debt occurred despite tightening credit conditions, and it is an increasingly worrisome problem because the “free lunch” of artificially low interest rates is over.

    Over the last decade, global debt has increased by a staggering $100 trillion.

    Combined government, household and corporate debt hit 336% of global GDP in the second quarter of this year. The global debt-to-GDP ratio has increased by 2 percentage points this year. Prior to 2023, the global debt-to-GDP ratio had declined seven straight quarters after reaching a record of 360% at the height of the global pandemic government lockdowns.

    About 80% of the new global debt was piled up by developed nations, with Japan, the US, Britain and France leading the way. Among emerging markets, the largest economies saw the biggest debt increases, including China, Brazil and India.

    “As higher rates and higher debt levels push government interest expenses higher, domestic debt strains are set to increase,” the IIF said in a statement.

    Peter Praet served as chief economist at the European Central Bank. He told Reuters that the debt levels are still sustainable, but the outlook is worrying given the fact that spending needs aren’t going to decline.

    You can take many, many countries today, and you will see that we are not far away from a public finances crisis.”

    Praet seems over-optimistic.

    The US government is over $33 trillion in debt. In fact, the Biden administration managed to add half a trillion dollars to the debt in just 20 days. Meanwhile, with rising interest rates, the federal government is now spending as much to make interest payments on the debt as it is for national defense.

    And there is no end to the borrowing and spending in sight.

    More than a decade of interest rates pushed artificially low by central banks worldwide incentivized a tidal wave of borrowing. This was intentional. The thinking was that borrowing and spending would “stimulate” a global economy dragged down first by the Great Recession and then by government-instituted pandemic policies. Nobody ever stopped to think the easy-money gravy train might run out of track.

    But as Fitch Ratings managing director Edward Parker put it, “That free lunch is over and interest payments are now rising faster than debt or revenue.”

    The US economy in particular was built on borrowing and spending. Easy money is its lifeblood. It simply can’t run without artificially low interest rates. The global economy is in much the same boat.

    That puts the Federal Reserve and other central banks between a rock and a hard place. They need to keep interest rates high to counteract the trillions of dollars they created and injected into the global economy as stimulus causing a rapid increase in price inflation. But these higher rates will ultimately break things in the borrow-and-spend economy.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/17/2023 – 16:45

  • WTI Extends Gains After API Reports Across-The-Board Inventory Draws
    WTI Extends Gains After API Reports Across-The-Board Inventory Draws

    Oil prices closed higher on the day, after a roller-coaster ride down this morning after Russia’s Central Bank reiterated expectations that OPEC+ may consider an increase in output at the beginning of 2024, but that was quickly pushed back on by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.

    Crude traders are also tracking events in Barbados, where Venezuela’s government is expected to sign a deal with the US-backed opposition later on Tuesday. In exchange for a freer presidential election next year, the agreement could pave the way for the US to ease sanctions against the country, potentially boosting oil exports.

    “Traders remain on high alert” while oil remains in a holding pattern, said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth.

    “Many investors are not willing to make outright bets on crude in the current environment but are actively buying upside call options in the event crude supply is impacted. It is a low conviction, highly volatile trading environment.”

    WTI accelerated its rebound after the missile strike on a Gazan hospital.

    After last week’s large crude build (and draws at Cushing and in products), all eyes are for any signs of further demand destruction.

    API

    • Crude -4.38mm (+400k exp)

    • Cushing -1.00mm

    • Gasoline -1.58mm (-600k exp)

    • Distillates -612k (-1.2mm exp)

    API reports inventory drawdowns across the board with Crude stocks unexpectedly falling 4.4mm barrels (+400k exp) and Cushing getting ever closer to ‘tank bottoms’…

    Source: Bloomberg

    WTI was hovering around $87.20 and extended gains after the draws…

    Bloomberg’s Javier Blas penned an interesting op-ed, blasting the fact that the Biden administration has allowed the SPR to run so low, saying that this ignorance could not come at a worst time.

    Henry Kissinger called it “the economic equivalent of the Sputnik challenge.” 

    Exactly 50 years ago today, the US found itself under economic assault after Arab nations weaponized oil, starting a petroleum embargo that brought the global economy to its knees.

    Kissinger, vowing America would never be blackmailed again, designed a shield against the oil weapon: the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. A stockpile containing hundreds of millions of barrels of crude, its function was to offset the impact of any future supply disruption, intentional or not. Half a century later, Washington has forgotten that lesson.

    The SPR today contains less than half the crude it had at its peak just over a decade ago. At about 350 million barrels, it’s at its lowest since 1983. To put what’s left into perspective, the US released about 270 million barrels over the last two years to cap oil prices.

    [ZH: For context, there is less than 20 days of supply left to meet current levels of demand… but we know SPR can’t go to ‘zero’ so good luck]

    If the SPR is a revolver, it has a final round left in the chamber — and that’s it.

    Worth a read…

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/17/2023 – 16:37

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Oct 17

Today’s News 17th October 2023

  • Germany: AfD Reaches New Record High, Gains Unprecedented 8-Point Lead Over Ruling SPD
    Germany: AfD Reaches New Record High, Gains Unprecedented 8-Point Lead Over Ruling SPD

    Authored by John Cody via Remix News,

    At the same time the governing left-liberal coalition crashes in the polls, the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) is surging ahead, reaching a new record high in a major state-run poll.

    AfD leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla.

    According to the most recent ARD Deutschlandtrend poll, all parties of the ruling traffic light coalition only have 33 percent of the vote, while the AfD is now stronger than the SPD and the Free Democrats (FDP) combined, reaching 23 percent of the vote.

    According to Infratest dimap, the three-party ruling coalition has reached a new low among Germans. Only 15 percent back the SPD, while 13 percent would vote for the Greens and 5 percent for the FDP. Given that 5 percent is needed to enter parliament, the FDP is under threat of being removed entirely, which is putting the coalition on increasingly shaky ground.

    AfD party co-leader Alice Weidel celebrated the new record high, writing: “New record also in the ARD Germany trend: The AfD is now at 23% here too! In addition, 50% of citizens would like the AfD to be in government where it has performed strongly. A great confirmation of our work!”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The poll showed all three governing parties dropping one point compared to polling from a week ago. For the Social Democrats, this is the worst result during this legislative period; in the federal election approximately two years ago, SPD had 25.7 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, FDP has seen its vote cut in half since 2021, when it received 11.5 percent of the electoral vote.

    The AfD is enjoying a record lead over the SPD, coming in at an unprecedented eight points. Meanwhile, the Christian Democrats and Christian Socialists (CDU/CSU) continue their run on top of the polls, coming in at 29 percent, a bump of one point compared to last week. The Free Voters and the Left Party would each have 4 percent.

    Voters’ top concern is immigration, while climate change becomes a non-issue

    Voters also say their top concern is mass immigration, with 44 percent of voters naming this as the most important political problem that politicians should address. This issue towers over the other problems facing the country, with armed conflicts/peace/foreign policy only coming in at 18 percent, while the economy comes in at 11 percent and inflation and taxes at 10 percent.

    Regarding the environment and climate change, only 1 percent of Germans list this as the most pressing issue.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/17/2023 – 02:00

  • The Greatest Hoax Of All Time
    The Greatest Hoax Of All Time

    Authored by ‘Mr. E’ via bombthrower.com,

    Follow Mr. E on Substack and Twitter!

    It should come as no surprise to anyone following my work when I say that both mainstream and alternative media are, to a very large extent, part of the controlled dialectic put forth by the ruling class. It helps to maintain a division of society, promulgated by useful idiots and true believers of either side’s dogma.

    Malcolm X’s famous quote applies:

    The press is so powerful in its image-making role, it can make the criminal look like he’s the victim and make the victim look like he’s the criminal. This is the press, an irresponsible press. It will make the criminal look like he’s the victim and make the victim look like he’s the criminal. If you aren’t careful, the newspapers will have you hating the people who are being oppressed and loving the people who are doing the oppressing.

    It behooves everyone to have a healthy skepticism of whatever they hear no matter the outlet. But even more concerning to you is when they all begin to push the same narrative. In this report you’re going to see just how much effort some are willing to exert in the maintenance of a popular scapegoat – the Freemasons.

    In the days following the breakout of violence in Israel and Gaza Greg Reese, producer of the popular Reese Report, published a video outlining the contents of a letter allegedly written by Freemason Albert Pike on August 15, 1871. The very same letter was reported on in rapid succession by mainstream outlets The Daily Star, Daily Mail, News.com.au, and Express.co.uk in 2016. A South African newspaper also reported on it in 2013.

    All these reports make mention that this letter “allegedly” exists, but none went so far as to even attempt to confirm this. They didn’t investigate the sources, and merely uncritically repeated something that appeared too good to be true.

    The Devil in the Nineteenth Century

    We must go back over 130 years to get to the bottom of this story, and it all begins in France with a man named Marie Joseph Gabriel Antoine Jogand-Pagès, better known as Léo Taxil. Born in 1854 he was placed in Jesuit seminary school, where he came to be disillusioned with the Catholic faith and religion in general.

    Léo Taxil circa 1880, from the Bibliothèque Nationale de France.

    Eventually becoming a writer, he targeted Christianity with scathing critiques such as The Holy Pornographers: Confession and Confessors and The Pope’s Mistresses. He even ventured into satirical pieces like The Life of Jesus, making a mockery of the immaculate conception, and The Amusing Bible. In 1884 he wrote The Secret Loves of Pope Pius IX, which is exactly what the salacious title suggests and eventually led to accusations of libel.

    Also in 1884, Pope Leo XIII published an encyclical on Freemasonry where he declared:

    The race of man, after its miserable fall from God … separated into two diverse and opposite parts, of which the one steadfastly contends for truth and virtue, the other of those things which are contrary to virtue and to truth. The one is the kingdom of God on earth … The other is the kingdom of Satan … At every period of time each has been in conflict with the other, with a variety and multiplicity of weapons and of warfare, although not always with equal ardour and assault. At this period, however, the partisans of evil seems to be combining together, and to be struggling with united vehemence, led on or assisted by that strongly organized and widespread association called the Freemasons. No longer making any secret of their purposes, they are now boldly rising up against God Himself. They are planning the destruction of holy Church publicly and openly, and this with the set purpose of utterly despoiling the nations of Christendom, if it were possible, of the blessings obtained for us through Jesus Christ our Saviour.

    Perhaps swayed by this polemic, Taxil announced he had converted back to Catholicism in 1885 and set to work on an entirely different literary endeavor with a new target, the Freemasons. Over the next several years he published Les Mystères de la Franc-Maçonnerie, a four-volume history of Freemasonry containing curious-but-unsourced accounts of eyewitness’s participation in strange rites. The books were sensational and Taxil even had an audience with Pope Leo XIII himself to congratulate him on all his good works exposing the dastardly plans of the Freemasons.

    The best was yet to come, however, when he teamed up with Dr. Karl Hacks to write the two-volume Le Diable au XIXe Siècle, published in 1892 and 1894, telling the insider tale of one Diana Vaughan in the words of Doctor Bataille. The lurid details of her account boggle the mind. She was a member of the Palladium Rite, under the command of Albert Pike, where she was involved in ritual orgies and blood sacrifices. They would summon demons in physical form, and she was even betrothed to one of them.

    Chapter 25 of the second volume is entitled “Plan of the Secret Chiefs,” and it purportedly contains the text of a plan written on August 15, 1871, by Albert Pike and the leadership of the Palladium Rite, detailing their plan for the destruction of Roman Catholicism. The description of the final coup-de-grace contains a paragraph that has gone on to be legend:

    Therefore, when the autocratic Empire of Russia will become the citadel of papist adonaism, we shall unleash the revolutionary nihilists and atheists, and provoke a formidable social cataclysm, which will demonstrate clearly to the nations, in all its horror, the effect of absolute unbelief, mother of savagery and of the bloodiest disorder. Then everywhere, the citizens, obliged to defend themselves against the mad minority of revolutionaries, will exterminate these destroyers of civilization; and the countless disillusioned adonaites, whose deist soul have up until that time remained without a compass, thirsting for an ideal, but not knowing which God is worthy of tribute, will receive the True Light, by the universal manifestation of the pure Luciferian doctrine, at last made public, an event that will arise from a reactionary movement following the destruction of atheism and adonaism, together at the same time vanquished and exterminated.

    Catholics fell in love with Taxil’s work, and a Catholic journalist by the name of Abel Clarin de la Rive became friends with Taxil, believing unreservedly in his revelations about the Masonic threat the Church faced. Taxil authorized de la Rive to publish a quote by Albert Pike alleged by Diana Vaughan, Taxil’s whistleblower, in his 1894 book La Femme et l’Enfant Dans la Franc-Maçonnerie Universelle:

    That which we must say to the world is that we worship a god, but it is the god that one adores without superstition. To you, Sovereign Grand Inspectors General, we say this, that you may repeat it to the brethren of the 32nd, 31st and 30th degrees: The masonic Religion should be, by all of us initiates of the higher degrees, maintained in the Purity of the Luciferian doctrine. If Lucifer were not God, would Adonay and his priests calumniate him?

    Yes, Lucifer is God, and unfortunately Adonay is also god. For the eternal law is that there is no light without shade, no beauty without ugliness, no white without black, for the absolute can only exist as two gods; darkness being necessary for light to serve as its foil as the pedestal is necessary to the statue, and the brake to the locomotive.

    Thus, the doctrine of Satanism is a heresy, and the true and pure philosophical religion is the belief in Lucifer, the equal of Adonay; but Lucifer, God of Light and God of Good, is struggling for humanity against Adonay, the God of Darkness and Evil.

    The assault upon Freemasonry drew intense criticism from their ranks, as well as from other esoteric societies. In 1896 Arthur Edward Waite, a British poet and mystic who wrote extensively on the occult, published Devil Worship in France, a comprehensive refutation of Taxil’s allegations.

    By 1897 everyone was becoming impatient with Taxil, whose stories had been growing ever more radical and grotesque. They wanted to meet Diana Vaughan, in person, and Taxil eventually obliged.

    The Confession

    On the evening of April 19, 1897, Taxil held a press conference at the Hall of the Geographic Society in Paris. Many reporters, Catholic priests, Freemasons, monks, and other illustrious figures from around the world were in attendance. After raffling off a typewriter used by Diana Vaughan (the winner being M. Ali Kental, Editor of Ikdam, at Constantinople), Léo Taxil finally addresses his audience.

    He reveals there is no Dr. Karl Hacks, there is no Dr. Bataille, there is no Diana Vaughan, there is no Palladium Rite.

    “There wasn’t the least masonic plot in this story,” he says, and denies that his conversion to Catholicism was in earnest – all part of the prank, to win the Church’s trust and approbation. Diana Vaughan was a real person, but she was only his typist and collaborator in this colossal fraud designed to deeply embarrass the Catholic Church and become the crown jewel of his anti-clerical work.

    Slandering Freemasons was the best way to establish the foundations of the colossal prank of which I savored all the suave happiness in advance. – Léo Taxil

    After explaining in immense detail how everything he published on Freemasonry over the last 12 years was a monumental hoax, Taxil concludes his press conference saying, “You were told that Palladism would be knocked down today, better still, it is annihilated, it is no more,” and that “Palladism is now dead for good. Its father just murdered it.” The audience erupts calumniously, with Catholics hissing and screaming, a priest mounts a chair to try and maintain order, and it becomes obvious why Taxil had the attendees check their walking sticks at the door – some would certainly have beaten him to death on the spot.

    They ought to have known better, though, as Taxil’s extensive use of the Baphomet throughout the entirety of his hoax was a dead giveaway that not all was as it seemed. Created several decades prior by another Frenchman, Éliphas Lévi, it was clearly stated in the book in which it first appeared that it was not a representation of a demon or the devil, but something far more complex and esoteric. Ultimately, it was Lévi’s attempt at rehabilitating the image of the extinct Knights Templar, who were massacred by the Catholic Church in the year 1312 after a campaign of blood libel, and false confessions obtained by gruesome tortures. Nevertheless, it found great use being circulated by others like Taxil and de la Rive as a demonic idol.

    The shock of Taxil’s confession, the entirety of which was published in Parisian newspaper Le Frondeur on April 25, 1897, rocked the world. The same day Le Père Peinard, a weekly Parisian journal for anarchists, published a detailed recounting of the event.

    Here is but a sampling of other stories published about Taxil’s infamous confession:

    Taxil further elaborated on the intentions behind his grand hoax in a 1906 interview in Volume XXIV of The National Magazine:

    The public made me what I am; the arch-liar of the period, for when I first commenced to write against the Masons my object was amusement pure and simple. The crimes I laid at their door were so grotesque, so impossible, so widely exaggerated, I thought everybody would see the joke and give me credit for originating a new line of humor. But my readers wouldn’t have it so; they accepted my fables as gospel truth, and the more I lied for the purpose of showing that I lied, the more convinced became they that I was a paragon of veracity.

    Then it dawned upon me that there was lots of money in being a Munchausen of the right kind, and for twelve years I gave it to them hot and strong, but never too hot. When inditing such slush as the story of the devil snake who wrote prophecies on Diana’s back with the end of his tail, I sometimes said to myself: “Hold on, you are going too far,” but I didn’t. My readers even took kindly to the yarn of the devil who, in order to marry a Mason, transformed himself into a crocodile, and, despite the masquerade, played the piano wonderfully well.

    One day when lecturing at Lille, I told my audience that I had just had an apparition of Nautilus, the most daring affront on human credulity I had so far risked. But my hearers never turned a hair. “Hear ye, the doctor has seen Nautulius,” they said with admiring glances. Of course no one had a clear idea of who Nautilus was, I didn’t myself, but they assumed that he was a devil.

    Ah, the jolly evenings I spent with my fellow authors hatching out new plots, new, unheard of perversions of truth and logic, each trying to outdo the other in organized mystification. I thought I would kill myself laughing at some of the things proposed, but everything went; there is no limit to human stupidity.

    Taxil would die ten months later in March 1907. In November of the same year the Sydney-based Catholic Press published an anonymous letter eulogizing Taxil as “The World’s Worst Liar,” and that he had “died despised by those who had known him and by the great world he had cheated,” while calling him a “horrible buffoon,” whose “thrilling fairy tale under the guise of fact took the Catholic world by storm.” More accurately, however, they also called his hoax “the most successful fraud of the nineteenth century,” something Taxil certainly would have taken as a compliment.

    It was Taxil’s intent to exploit people’s tendency towards confirmation bias in his hoax, which had succeeded beyond his wildest dreams. However, what he didn’t foresee was that the egos of his victims were so big that they would carry on pushing his fabrications as if nothing had happened. Confession or not, it had to be true.

    The World in Chaos

    With World War I kicking off in 1914, followed by the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917, people were scrambling for a coherent explanation of why so much chaos was being sown around the world. In 1920 a book called The Cause of World Unrest emerged attempting to explain it all. It was an anonymous compilation of essays originally published in the London Morning Post in July of the same year.

    In one of the essays we find Taxil’s magisterial hoax cited as truth, describing the chapter already mentioned above from Le Diable au XIXe Siècle about the written plan drawn up on August 15, 1871 by the fictitious Palladian Rite for global destruction. A familiar paragraph from the so-called plan is reproduced in The Cause:

    That is why, when the autocratic Empire of Russia will have become the citadel of Papal Christianity (adonaisme papiste), we shall unchain the revolutionary Nihilists and Atheists, and we shall provoke a formidable social cataclysm, which will demonstrate clearly to the nations, in all its horror, the effect of absolute unbelief, mother of savagery and of the most bloody disorder. Then, everywhere, the citizens, obliged to defend themselves against the mad minority of revolutionaries, will exterminate these destroyers of civilization, and the multitude, disillusioned of Christianity, whose deist soul will up to that moment be without compass, thirsting for an ideal, but not knowing where to bestow their worship, will receive the True Light, by the universal manifestation of the pure Luciferian doctrine, at last made public, a manifestation which will arise from the general movement of reaction following the destruction of Atheism and Christianity, both at the same time vanquished and exterminated.

    There is no mention of Taxil’s sensational confession in the pages preceding or following the reproduction of this part of the hoax. It does say in The Cause that this quote and the document it allegedly comes from could be a hoax, but that it nevertheless is quite prophetic.

    But was it really? The rising tide of revolutionary socialism in the late 19th century was surely no stranger to Taxil. Marx and Engel’s Communist Manifesto had been in circulation for decades prior to Taxil creating the hoax, and bloody revolution was already being openly discussed. It was only a matter of where it would first emerge, and popular locations for that had already been determined to be Russia or Germany.

    The Cause would go on to be used in the 1925 book called The Mystery of Freemasonry Unveiled, published by Cardinal Caro y Rodriguez of Chile. In it, the Cardinal uncritically repeats what he found in The Cause, reproducing verbatim the same paragraph from Taxil’s hoax. How a Catholic Cardinal would not know this was a fabrication is surprising seeing that he would have been nearly thirty years old at the time of Taxil’s confession and by then already an ordained priest.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/16/2023 – 23:55

  • Strategists Sound Alarm On Dimmer Profit Outlook
    Strategists Sound Alarm On Dimmer Profit Outlook

    Earlier today we excerpted from two recent reports, one from BofA and another from Goldman, both of which were rather optimistic when it comes to both Q3 earnings season and corporate profits beyond. Not everyone, however, shares their enthusiasm. According to a duo of far more bearish strategists from Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan, the outlook for earnings is weakening and could remain subdued.

    As the reporting season kicks off, in his latest weekly note (available to pro subscribers) Morgan Stanley’s resident permabear Michael Wilson said the earnings revisions breadth – referring to the number of stocks seeing upgrades versus downgrades – for the S&P 500 has fallen sharply over the past couple of weeks.

    And since this is a time of year when earnings revisions tend to see an upward inflection in breadth…

    … further underperformance “would be a sign that other cyclical risks including macro headwinds are driving the earnings revisions backdrop,” Wilson wrote in the note.

    Meanwhile, as Bloomberg’s Sagarika Jaisinghani observes, JPMorgan’s equally bearish strategist Mislav Matejka points to Citigroup’s index of earnings revisions which shows that downgrades have outpaced upgrades for four straight weeks ahead of the reporting season, and expects this trend to continue.

    “Most recently, EPS revisions appear to be weakening again in the US and Eurozone,” Matejka wrote in a note. “We think this downtrend could continue.”

    The bearish views are in contrast to a more optimistic tone from analysts ahead of the season, which kicked off Friday with banking giants including JPMorgan. Upcoming results will further reveal how companies have managed headwinds such as higher interest rates and slowing consumer demand.

    The prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates has unnerved markets this month, with the 10-year Treasury yield hitting the highest in more than a decade. Investors are bracing for the Federal Reserve to keep policy tight, rekindling recession concerns that have been heightened by conflict in the Middle East.

    Still, RBC Capital Markets strategist Lori Calvasina said that the reporting season is off to a good start in terms of stock price reactions, even though earnings-per-share revisions have turned slightly negative and commentary suggests the uncertain macroeconomic backdrop is taking a toll on companies. Out of the few S&P 500 companies which reported so far, 88% have beaten estimates according to Bloomberg data.

    Calvasina slightly lifted her S&P 500 earnings-per-share forecast for 2023 and 2024. “Our 2024 forecast assumes a significant moderation in inflation, easing of interest rate pressures in the back half of the year, and sluggish GDP and industrial production forecasts,” she wrote in a note.

    To be sure, early results show a “strong start” to the quarter, according to BofA’s Savita Subramanian, who said the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far are tracking a 1% beat led by Banks, with reported results coming in 9% above consensus (+2% ex-Financials).

    And while analysts predict S&P 500 companies will report a 0.8% drop in third-quarter earnings from a year ago before a 6.2% rebound in the final three months of the year, we are likely to see a sharp hockeystick during earnings season due to the usual sandbagging and expectation cuts ahead of earnings to make beats more likely.

    “We look for company guidance to provide more clarity on 4Q expectations, which should in turn set the tone for the 2024 revisions,” Wilson wrote.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/16/2023 – 23:35

  • Are You Prepared?
    Are You Prepared?

    Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

    I’ve had an unsettled feeling about what is going on in this country and around the world for the last month. More unsettled than normal.

    I know that is what has spurred me to write multiple short articles over the last couple weeks as my outlet for dealing with my increasing feeling of dread.

    But I’ve also begun to take some action steps to be better prepared for whatever is coming.

    I’m not a true doomstead prepper. I would say I’m more prepped than the average person, less prepped than many of the people who read TBP, and certainly not prepped enough to survive what could be headed our way. During the time frame from 2009 through 2012 I bought a significant amount of equipment, firearms, and food for what I thought was an imminent SHTF moment coming our way. As usual, my timing was off by a mile. But still, the supplies are in my storage area, awaiting the day that will come.

    My location isn’t ideal, but it isn’t terrible. It is basically a suburban community nestled among numerous farms, far from any urban ghetto shithole. Most of my neighborhood is occupied by liberals, Karens, and vaccine supporters. I know of three or four neighbors who I could count on as support, if things go sideways. Two of them are engineers who have skills I do not have. I would trust them in a crisis situation.

    I had a backup natural gas generator installed a couple years ago, which came in handy a few weeks ago when a transformer blew up the road.

    Over the last few weeks I’ve been methodically taking small steps to get better prepared.

    I’ve been withdrawing cash from my credit union.

    My old propane grill has rusted away and ignition has been iffy for a while. I bought a new one last week.

    In the near future, I’ll be getting rid of our 13 year old Honda Insight with 250,000 miles and replacing it with a used Honda HRV with under 40,000 miles. Converting fiat into useful things seems like a good idea at this point.

    Yesterday we bought a new firearm and ammo. What a fascinating process. It is pretty clear to me that all gun dealer employees and their customers are of the same mindset as TBPers. We got to know the gentleman helping us select the gun pretty well because the goddamn state of PA makes it as difficult as possible to legally purchase a firearm. After filling out pages of paperwork and answering questions online, it took the state drones about an hour and half to approve the purchase, even though I’ve never had anything more than a speeding ticket in my entire life.

    Not only did the guy selling us the gun have to triple check the paperwork, he had to get the owner’s wife to double check all of his work. I asked why they had to go through such a tedious process. They said the ATF is crawling up their butts and will shut them down in a split second if any paperwork is slightly off. He said they have been harassing every gun dealer in Bucks and Montgomery County with surprise audits, trying to put them out of business. So, Philly and every other urban shithole is experiencing massive gun violence from illegal guns used by black men, but the ATF harasses legal gun shops selling legal guns to white people for protection. This is how it rolls in Biden’s America.

    I’m a little more prepared than I was a month ago, but surely not enough…

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/16/2023 – 23:15

  • China's "National Team" Is Quiet After August ETF Buying Spree
    China’s “National Team” Is Quiet After August ETF Buying Spree

    By Ye Xie and Amy Li, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategists

    On Oct. 16, 2007, the Shanghai Composite Index hit a record high of 6,092. Exactly 16 years later, the benchmark closed 50% below that record. On Chinese social media, ridiculing the poor stock-market performance has become a national pastime.

    Even the recent arrival of the National Team – state-backed entities such as a sovereign wealth fund and pension funds — did little to shore up sentiment. To be fair, though, their support has been half-hearted, at best.

    Despite data showing the economy is stabilizing, the stock market has continued to trade poorly. The announcement that a sovereign wealth fund was buying bank stocks and reports that Beijing is considering a gigantic stabilization fund barely made any difference.

    One headwind has been the relentless selling by foreign investors. They are on track to pull out from the northbound stock connect for a third consecutive month, which would mark the longest outflows since the Shenzhen and Hong Kong stock connection debuted in 2016. In August, a record 90 billion yuan ($12 billion) of funds flew out the door.

    Coincidentally, August also saw a record inflow of 143 billion yuan into Chinese equity ETFs trading on the mainland. That was quite an unusual splurge, almost double the previous record.

    According to Goldman Sachs, the National Team — which collectively owns about 3.5% of the market value of local stocks — was largely behind the ETF purchases. The net inflows to the National Team’s top-five “favorite” ETFs surged by more than 90 billion yuan that month.

    If that was the case, they have since become dormant. Investors added 23 billion yuan to ETFs in September, before withdrawing 6.5 billion yuan this month. If sustained, October would be only the second time on record when both ETFs and northbound connect registered net outflows.

    It seems to suggest that support from the National Team was rather opportunistic and lukewarm. It steps in only when foreign outflows become sizable.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/16/2023 – 22:55

  • Independent Investigators Net Hundreds Of Child Predator Suspects, Arrests Made
    Independent Investigators Net Hundreds Of Child Predator Suspects, Arrests Made

    Authored by Travis Gillmore via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Over the past three years, Predator Poachers, a Texas-based group founded in 2020 by now-23-year-old Alex Rosen aimed at preventing child sexual abuse, has identified approximately 500 online child predators, resulting in nearly 300 arrests in 43 states.

    Former college football player Alex Rosen (R), the “Predator Poacher”, confronts an elementary school teacher about his alleged sex crimes against children at the school where he works. The teacher is now under investigation by police. [Courtesy of Alex Rosen]

    Many cases are still pending and there have been convictions in more than half of the country—including a decades-long prison sentence for a former Virginia firefighter announced Sept. 20 by the Department of Justice.

    A 2022 sting operation conducted by the group of independent journalists targeting Virginia-based Christopher Scott Jones, led law enforcement to uncover a trail of his underage victims.

    Using a decoy pretending to be an 11-year-old girl, the group communicated with Mr. Jones for several months via social media platforms, text messaging, and phone and video calls before the discussion turned criminal, and the 40-year-old firefighter suggested meeting in person for nefarious reasons.

    “It took months for him to get sexual … he’s very careful about the targets he’s choosing,” Mr. Rosen told The Epoch Times. “Our decoy Ashley did a tremendous job to convince him,” that she was real.

    Instead of a young child, Mr. Jones was met by 6-foot, 4-inch tall, 300-pound Mr. Rosen and his crew of photographers ready to document the encounter.

    After initially trying to avoid a conversation, the suspect eventually allowed Mr. Rosen and a cameraman into his truck, where he spent more than two hours denying the evidence before relenting and admitting why he was there.

    “He was lawyer-speaking to me the whole time,” Mr. Rosen said. “It wasn’t until the end that he admitted that he wanted to have sex with the 11-year-old.”

    Ultimately, Mr. Jones was arrested and charged with attempted rape of a child, upon which authorities discovered evidence of additional crimes.

    After turning the information over to the Federal Bureau of Investigation field office in Norfolk, Virginia, three minors the suspect had previously sexually assaulted were identified, leading to further charges.

    Alex Rosen (L), founder of Predator Poachers, confronts now-former Virginia firefighter Lt. Christopher Scott Jones for soliciting sex from a decoy posing as an 11-year-old girl in 2022, which resulted in a 33-year-prison sentence announced in October 2023. (Rumble/Screenshot via The Epoch Times)

    The defendant pleaded guilty in May “to using a communication facility to knowingly persuade, induce, entice, and coerce a minor to engage in sexual activity … [and] to receiving child pornography of his victim.” He is now serving a 33-year prison sentence, according to a justice department press release.

    A spokesperson for the James City County Police Department told The Epoch Times by email Oct. 3 that the case was initiated due to the work of the Predator Poachers.

    Before launching the group, Mr. Rosen played Division 1 college football for Texas Southern University. During summer break in 2019, he discovered the world of catching online child predators by watching videos on YouTube.

    At the time, he was thinking about joining the police academy in Houston, but at 19, his age prevented him.

    “Since I was a kid, I always wanted to be a cop going after the bad guys,” Mr. Rosen said. “To learn that within 30 minutes of meeting online, these adults wanted to meet 15-year-olds in person was just jaw-dropping, and now we’re catching them into as young as infants—it’s just beyond my imagination.”

    Initially, the team worked to expose child predators but did not involve law enforcement, as they were not aware it was an option, until a trip to another state opened their eyes to the possibility of sending pedophiles to prison.

    In that instance, Jamie Lee Daniels, 48, was ultimately arrested in Nebraska, convicted of four felony crimes, and sentenced to a five-to-10-year prison sentence after the group caught him sending lewd photos and soliciting sex from a decoy pretending to be an eight-year-old girl.

    “At first, I didn’t even know these guys could get arrested,” Mr. Rosen said. “But then, going to Nebraska in late 2020, that really just changed everything, because I realized they could be arrested, and we started focusing on prosecutions.”

    Sporting a bushy red beard, with incriminating text messages printed out in hand, and readily firing off witty criticisms that often go unnoticed by those being interrogated, Mr. Rosen—who tells the suspects his name is Gordon Flowers—uses a combination of compassionate conversation, so-called mirroring techniques that interrogators use to instill trust—and hard evidence to convince child predators to admit to felony criminal activity.

    After the suspect has confessed enough on camera to help prosecutors secure a conviction, Mr. Rosen then typically says he’s starving and asks his crew to order some “fried pickles”—a code to call the police.

    When officers arrive, the rapport Mr. Rosen built with suspects generally pays off, with the individuals often admitting their crimes and incriminating themselves while in police presence and with body cameras rolling—thus providing further proof of their guilt.

    “There’s nothing more fun for me than catching predators,” he said.

    Alex Rosen (L), founder of Predator Poachers, shows evidence to police after confronting a child pornography trader. (Rumble/Screenshot via The Epoch Times)

    Not all catches go according to plan, though. In one situation where an individual was attempting to flee, Mr. Rosen faked a medical emergency that stalled the suspect until police arrived.

    Some tense moments have occurred—with one man cutting his wrists in a futile suicide attempt in September, another pulling a machete out of his vehicle, and a predator becoming enraged in Medford, Oregon, after being confronted and pointing a gun at the crew and several passersby.

    The latter is the most dangerous situation the team has encountered, according to Mr. Rosen—though nerves are on edge following the murder of fellow child predator investigator Robert Wayne Lee, better known by his internet alias Boopac Shakur in Pontiac, Michigan on Sept. 29.

    Mr. Lee approached an individual—the second such time he had caught the same person—in a restaurant in Pontiac around 10:30 p.m. to confront him about soliciting a 15-year-old girl on the internet for sex. The argument escalated quickly, with the individual pulling a knife and his companion drawing a firearm—which he used to fatally shoot Mr. Lee three times in the chest.

    Two suspects, aged 17 and 18, were arrested Sept. 30 and are facing murder charges, according to Michigan’s Oakland County Sheriff’s Department.

    In a statement released Sept. 30, Sheriff Michael Bouchard spoke about the work Mr. Lee had done to help protect the community, saying that his efforts resulted in multiple arrests and convictions. But he warned others about attempting to do the same, as criminals tend to react violently when approached.

    “While we certainly understand his desire to hold child predators accountable, many times well-intentioned individuals … often underestimate the potential for violence confronting a suspected predator,” Mr. Bouchard said in a press release. “They feel trapped and often lash out violently. When we have arrested predators in such circumstances, they have rammed police cars and exhibited other violent behavior in attempts to escape.”

    While both Mr. Lee and Mr. Rosen’s work includes exposing child predators, Mr. Lee took a different, much more aggressive approach. He liked to slash the tires of those he caught preying on children.

    Aware of the dangers inherent in his unique line of work, Mr. Rosen said the killing of Mr. Lee might make him more cautious, but he’s even more dedicated to stopping criminals.

    His genre of crime-stopping was made famous by Chris Hansen’s “To Catch a Predator” series on NBC’s Dateline, which featured similar decoy ploys to catch adults preying on children online.

    The show ended following an encounter with Bill Conradt—an assistant district attorney in Dallas, Texas—who committed suicide in 2007 after being caught by the crew. His family sued for $105 million the same year, and an undisclosed settlement was agreed to in 2008.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/16/2023 – 22:35

  • MENA Region Faces Another Threat: Water Wars
    MENA Region Faces Another Threat: Water Wars

    Agricultural water withdrawal way beyond the limit of renewable freshwater resources is most common today in countries in the Middle East and North Africa.

    Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reports that, according to the FAO Aquastat database where the latest available year for the data is 2020, several other nations, with Spain, South Africa, South Korea, Pakistan and India all sticking out for using up a higher share of their freshwater resources in agriculture than their neighbors.

    Infographic: Agriculture Puts Strain on Water Resources in MENA Region | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Desert climates like on the Arabian peninsular make countries there overextend their annual water budgets by agriculture alone.

    This has led to studies concluding that the United Arab Emirates, for example, could run out of groundwater by 2030. In Pakistan and Iran, between 63 and 70 percent of renewable freshwater resources were dedicated to agriculture in 2020, rising to 68 and 77 percent including all freshwater uses. Extensive and water-intensive agriculture, including cotton crops, is also driving up freshwater use in the semi-arid climates of Central Asia. Here, Uzbekistan used 111 percent of renewable water resources per year, followed by Turkmenistan at 65 percent (106 percent when counting all freshwater use). The only other country extending its freshwater budget only when combining agriculture and other freshwater uses was Jordan.

    Agriculture accounts for 72 percent of all freshwater withdrawals globally, including a lot of overuse. According to the FAO, global freshwater resources per person have declined by 20 percent in the past decades, while water availability and quality have also deteriorated. Additional factors playing a role in this are pollution and climate change, stretching the precious resource even thinner.

    October 16 marks World Food Day, which this year has the motto: Water is life, water is food. Leave no one behind.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/16/2023 – 22:15

  • Biden Admin Orders Banks Not To Reject Illegal Immigrants' Loan Applications
    Biden Admin Orders Banks Not To Reject Illegal Immigrants’ Loan Applications

    Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The Biden administration has warned U.S. banks and other financial institutions that they can’t reject illegal immigrants’ credit applications based solely or predominantly on their immigration status.

    Illegal immigrants climb a section of the U.S.–Mexico border fence in Tijuana, Mexico, on April 29, 2018. (David McNew/Getty Images)

    The Department of Justice (DOJ) and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) said in a recent statement that rejecting illegal immigrants for credit cards and various types of loans just because they are noncitizens is unlawful.

    The two agencies stated that they were issuing the warning “because consumers have reported being rejected for credit cards as well as for auto, student, personal and equipment loans because of their immigration status, even when they have strong credit histories and ties to the United States and are otherwise qualified to receive the loans.”

    Specifically, the agencies cited the provisions of the Equal Credit Opportunity Act (ECOA), which protects credit applicants from discrimination based on such characteristics as race, religion, sexual orientation, and national origin.

    The agencies argue that protections afforded by ECOA and other laws extend to alienage, so banks that have blanket policies to deny loans to illegal immigrants may be breaking the law.

    “Lenders should not deny people the opportunity to take out a loan to buy a home, build their businesses or otherwise pursue their financial goals because of unlawful bias and without regard to their actual ability to repay,” Assistant Attorney General Kristen Clarke of the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division said in a statement.

    “Fair access to credit is crucially important for building wealth and strengthening household financial stability,” CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in a statement. “The CFPB will not allow companies to use immigration status as an excuse for illegal discrimination.”

    Rohit Chopra, director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, speaks during a Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing in Washington on June 13, 2023. (Michael A. McCoy/Getty Images)

    Bud Cummins, a former U.S. attorney, objected to the agencies’ warning to banks and other financial institutions.

    “DOJ and CFPB tell banks it might be illegal to refuse to loan money to people [who] broke federal law to reach the bank. You gotta be kidding me. The invasion of illegal immigrants is intentional and must be stopped,” he wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.

    According to the Center for Immigration Studies, there were roughly 11.35 million illegal immigrants residing in the United States as of January 2022.

    More Details

    The agencies said that ECOA protections extend to alienage, although in a joint statement, they acknowledged some gray area, namely that the act “does not expressly prohibit consideration of immigration status.”

    Some financial institutions have maintained blanket policies denying people credit based on their immigration status, without regard for their ability to repay, interpreting ECOA in a way that they believe shields them from liability, according to the agencies, which added that this is incorrect.

    “A creditor may consider an applicant’s immigration status when necessary to ascertain the creditor’s rights regarding repayment,” the agencies said, explaining that Regulation B, a rule that implements ECOA, expressly states that the only conditions under which immigration status may be considered is only to determine creditors’ “rights and remedies regarding repayment” of a loan.

    If financial institutions consider immigration status for any other reason, the agencies said they’re probably breaking the law.

    “Creditors should be aware that unnecessary or overbroad reliance on immigration status in the credit decisioning process, including when that reliance is based on bias, may run afoul of ECOA’s antidiscrimination provisions and could also violate other laws,” the agencies said.

    The “other laws” mentioned could refer to the 1866 Civil Rights Act, also known as Section 1981, which the agencies said in their joint statement “has long been construed to prohibit discrimination based on alienage.”

    They said that courts have found that “ECOA’s prohibition of national origin discrimination and Section 1981’s prohibitions complement one another and that discrimination that arises from overbroad restrictions on lending to noncitizens may violate either or both statutes.”

    It’s unclear whether any banks or financial institutions intend to challenge the DOJ and CFPB’s interpretation of the law regarding the provision of loans to illegal immigrants.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/16/2023 – 21:55

  • New York Supreme Court Upholds Ban On COVID Vaccine Mandate For Health Workers
    New York Supreme Court Upholds Ban On COVID Vaccine Mandate For Health Workers

    Authored by Benjamin Kew via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    New York’s Supreme Court has upheld its previous ruling invalidating the COVID-19 vaccine mandate for health care workers, a decision that will have ramifications on the power of the state’s executive.

    A health care worker prepares a dose Pfizer/BioNTEch COVID-19 vaccine at The Michener Institute in Toronto on Dec. 14, 2020. (Carlos Osorio/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

    The ruling came from the Supreme Court’s Appellate Division, Fourth Department, which dismissed the state’s appeal to have the mandate reinstated.

    “4th Dept dismissed state’s appeal as moot, and declined to vacate lower court win,” attorney Sujata Gibson wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.

    “The mandate is over and declared unconstitutional,” she continued. “[Thank you] [Children’s Health Defense], [Robert F. Kennedy Jr.], and [Medical Professionals For Informed Consent], and everyone who helped in this fight.

    “Doesn’t make up for the harm [New York] Inflicted, but will help protect us from more.”

    The health care worker vaccine mandate was first implemented in September 2021, resulting in the departure or termination of about 34,000 medical professionals from their positions.

    That mandate was originally struck down by the state’s Supreme Court in January, although the state’s executive branch chose to appeal the decision.

    In his opinion in Medical Professionals for Informed Consent vs. Bassett, Justice Gerard Neri wrote that the state’s Department of Health was “clearly prohibited from mandating any vaccination outside of those specifically authorized by the legislature” and that it had “blatantly violated the boundaries of its authority as set forth by the legislature.”

    Justice Neri added that the mandate was “arbitrary and capricious” given that the COVID-19 vaccines failed to prevent transmission of the virus, meaning the policy had no rational basis.

    New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, had previously explained her opposition to rehiring health care workers who lost their jobs as a result of the vaccine, saying that this was “not the right answer.”

    “I think everybody who goes into a health care facility or a nursing home should have the assurance and their family member should know that we have taken all steps to protect the public health,” she said at the time. “And that includes making sure those who come in contact with them at their time of most vulnerability, when they are sick or elderly, will not pass on the virus.”

    In April, the state agreed to unilaterally drop the mandate of its own accord, although it still contested the decision for the sake of maintaining executive authority.

    “Due to the changing landscape of the COVID-19 pandemic and evolving vaccine recommendations, the New York State Department of Health has begun the process of repealing the COVID-19 vaccine requirement for workers at regulated health care facilities,” the state health department stated.

    Last October, the New York Supreme Court also struck down a mandate enforced specifically by New York City on all public employees, with Justice Ralph Porzio arguing there was no evidence to “support the rationality of keeping a vaccination mandate for public employees, while vacating the mandate for private sector employees or creating a carveout for certain professions, like athletes, artists, and performers.”

    In January 2022, the U.S. Supreme Court similarly blocked an attempt by President Joe Biden to enforce a mandate on large private companies that their employees either get the vaccine or face regular testing. However, it did allow the mandate to continue in medical facilities that took funding from Medicare and Medicaid.

    “Although Congress has indisputably given OSHA the power to regulate occupational dangers, it has not given that agency the power to regulate public health more broadly,” the court wrote in its unsigned opinion. “Requiring the vaccination of 84 million Americans, selected simply because they work for employers with more than 100 employees, certainly falls in the latter category.”

    Margaret Florini, a spokesperson for Medical Professionals for Informed Consent, told The Defender that the latest decision was a “historic” win that would help prevent such abuses of power in the future.

    “I think we will see many new lawsuits come about because of this historic win,” Ms. Florini said. “There is still plenty of work to be done. We lost so much, not just money but relationships, marriages, friends, and homes. We cannot forget what was done to us, and we must continue to shed light on it and make impactful changes that will truly prevent this from happening again.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/16/2023 – 21:15

  • Supreme Court Orders 'Ghost Gun' Makers To Comply With Biden's Rule 
    Supreme Court Orders ‘Ghost Gun’ Makers To Comply With Biden’s Rule 

    On Monday evening, the Supreme Court directed two “ghost gun” manufacturers, BlackHawk Manufacturing Group and Defense Distributed, to comply with a Biden administration rule that mandates the serialization of unfinished gun parts, like a lower receiver for an AR-15 or the frame of a handgun. 

    • SUPREME COURT BOLSTERS BIDEN ADMINISTRATION `GHOST GUN’ RULE
    • TOP COURT BLOCKS EXEMPTIONS FOR TWO `GHOST GUN’ MANUFACTURERS

    “The justices, without any public dissents, granted a request from the administration, which said two lower courts had “effectively countermanded” an Aug. 8 Supreme Court order that allowed the regulations for the time being,” according to Bloomberg. 

    After the Supreme Court’s first ruling on Aug. 8, Judge Reed O’Connor of the Federal District Court for the Northern District of Texas permitted both manufacturers to sell ghost gun kits. The court asserted that the justices had left open the option of any relief for individual businesses. 

    The regulation does not ban ghost gun kits. Instead, manufacturers and sellers must obtain licenses, serialize each kit, and require background checks. 

    Biden administration alleges that the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives’s ghost gun rule will counter the flood of untraceable firearms pouring into cities. 

    The rule will be effective while the administration appeals the judge’s ruling to the 5th US Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans – and potentially the Supreme Court. 

    However, Defense Distributed saw this day coming and pivoted from 80% frames and receivers to 0% kits (read: here & here).

    That means DD’s Ghost Gunner 3, a 3-axis CNC machine, can take a metal block and create a lower receiver or frame. 

    DD is years ahead of Biden’s rogue ATF. The recent Supreme Court decision shows the government’s discomfort with at-home gun kits, which have been available for many years.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/16/2023 – 20:55

  • Europe "Shaken" By "Islamist Terrorist Attack" In Brussels; Shooter Still At Large
    Europe “Shaken” By “Islamist Terrorist Attack” In Brussels; Shooter Still At Large

    Update (1730ET): French President Emmanuel Macron said on Monday that Europe had been “shaken” by a “terrorist attack” in Brussels, after two Swedes were killed in a shooting.

    “A few minutes ago, Brussels was hit again by an Islamist terrorist attack which apparently, as I speak to you, took the lives of at least two other Europeans, two Swedes,” Macron said during a visit to Tirana, according to AFP.

    Perhaps most ironically, given the comments from various world l;aders about this “terrorist” attack by a muslim man, who recorded a video of himself explaining this was to “avenge the Muslims that have died for their religion”, the Belgian prosecuor has issues a statement that there is ‘no immediate link to Israel-Hamas’.

    “So there has been a claim via social media where someone says he is the perpetrator, that he has sympathies for IS, and what is also important, he mentions the Swedish nationality of those victims,” Eric Van Der Sypt, a spokesman for the federal prosecutor’s office, told the Belgian broadcaster VTM.

    “For now, at the current stage of the investigation, there would be no relationship to the conflict in Gaza,” he added.

    Hmm…

    Belgium’s government crisis center confirmed reports of the killings and asked the public not to share images or videos that might be related to the incident.

    As a reminder, Brussels was hit by major Islamic State terrorist attacks in 2016, which left more than 30 people dead and hundreds injured.

    *  *  *

    Update (1630): Belgium’s crisis center has raised Brussels’ terror alert status to its highest level, and France was tightening controls at its border with Belgium, France’s interior minister, Gérald Darmanin, said.

    “Horrified by the terrorist attack which left two victims in the heart of Brussels,” Belgian Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib said in a post on the X social media network.

    “All necessary means must be mobilized to combat radicalism.”

    “We are monitoring the situation and ask the people of Brussels to be vigilant,” Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said in a post on X, but appeared to confirm the link to terrorism:

    “I have just offered my sincere condolences to the Swedish prime minister following tonight’s harrowing attack on Swedish citizens in Brussels.

    “Our thoughts are with the families and friends who lost their loved ones. As close partners, the fight against terrorism is a joint one.”

    Additionally, the Euro 2024 soccer qualifier between Belgium and Sweden (taking place in Belgium’s national stadium in Brussels) has been abandoned at half-time after the attack, with fans locked in the stadium.

    No suspect has yet been arrested.

    *  *  *

    As Remix News’ Thomas Brooke reported, two people have been shot dead and others injured in central Brussels on Monday evening and the perpetrator remains at large, Belgian police have said.

    Authorities have confirmed a shooting took place in Ieperlaan at around 7:15 p.m. local time and two people of Swedish nationality were killed.

    The victims are understood to have been supporters of the Swedish national football team and were visiting the Belgian capital to attend the European Championship qualifying fixture between the two nations at the Heysel Stadium on Monday evening.

    Amateur footage circulating outline showed the perpetrator, dressed in a fluorescent orange jacket and wearing a white helmet, equipped with an assault rifle on the rampage in the city. The suspect arrived at the scene on a scooter before opening fire in the street causing pedestrians to flee into a nearby apartment building.

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    The man followed those fleeing the scene into the lobby of the residential building before firing several more shots, before returning to his scooter and taking off at speed.

    Belgian media reported eyewitness testimony which stated the shooter shouted “Allahu Akbar” before opening fire.

    Additional footage circulating online purports to be a video message recorded in Arabic by the shooter who is wearing the same identifiable clothing following the attack. According to the Sudinfo news outlet, the attacker said his motivation for the mass shooting was to avenge the deaths of Muslims around the world and boasted about killing “infidels.”

    “In his very violent speech, he said he had shot two people to ‘avenge the Muslims and that we live and die for our religion,’” the news site stated.

    The tweet is viewable here but not embeddable…

    Crisis meetings have taken place between the Belgian federal police, the Brussels local police, the security services, and Belgian Interior Minister Annelies Verlinden and Justice Minister Vincent Van Quickenborne.

    Authorities have not yet made an arrest and the suspect remains at large.

    This is a developing story…

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/16/2023 – 20:44

  • Victor Davis Hanson Surveys Our Post-Hamas Wreckage
    Victor Davis Hanson Surveys Our Post-Hamas Wreckage

    Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

    As Hamas goes, so with it go many of the following related Western pretensions.

    The Passions of 9/11, Redux

    It has been 22 years since we saw crowds throughout the Middle East celebrating the murder of 3,000 civilians—and since newspapers had daily “idiot watch” notices of American intellectuals defending radical Islamist mass murderers. And now the madness is back again, and we are witnessing the recrudescence of normalizing radical Islamic terrorists abroad.

    I suppose the theory is that no one in America cares much about radical Islamists foaming at the mouth, whether abroad or here. And the result is that they are empowered and their defense of murder is growing—yet its hubris will earn an almost-certain response, an anger slowly but insidiously growing at radical Islam.

    A Middle East Policy in Ruins 

    The current Biden appeasement of Iran and gift of billions of dollars in aggregate to the West Bank and Gaza are now, by bipartisan consensus, unsustainable. The only supporters of that lethal madness left are the embarrassments of BLM, the Squad, the Democratic Socialists of America, and the campus crowd.

    Their collective hatred of Jews and Israelis was manifested in their delight over the post mortem mutilations of murdered women and children. And why—even before Israel had responded with air attacks—were leftists and Islamists suddenly celebrating the news of the executions of more than 1,200 Jews? It was instinctual, a Pavlovian response.

    Even some leftist Democrats were shocked by their own constituents, whom they had created. Biden still might cling to his past destructive Middle East policies (and I expect him to restrict the Israelis within days after they begin to go in full force into Gaza), but the idea of continuing aid to the West Bank and Gaza or of “normalizing” relations with theocratic Iran will now be rightly seen as a suicidal delusion.

    Ukraine and Gaza

    Most Americans support arms for Ukraine to repel Russian aggressors.

    But something is becoming strange about these two respective wars.

    Why did the State Department more or less put no restrictions on Ukrainian retaliation, including operations against the Russian Black Sea Fleet—but the Secretary of State almost immediately called for a “ceasefire” to prevent Israeli retaliation, a mortal sin if he had dared say that about Ukraine’s similar response to aggression? Would an American diplomat lecture Ukraine about ending the “cycle of violence?”

    Why does the U.S. discount any possibility of a strategic response from Russia—which reportedly has some 6,000-7,000 nuclear weapons—to attacks on its homeland, but seems almost terrified about calling Iran to account for its central role in arming and funding terrorists to start a war with Israel by slaughtering 1,200 civilians?

    Is the U.S., as professed, really able to fund a $120 billion—and counting—war in Ukraine, and to replenish Israeli stocks (300,000 artillery shells shipped from U.S. depots in Israel to Ukraine, a reportedly mere one-month supply for Kyiv), and to restore depleted existing U.S. munitions (note the billions of dollars of equipment abandoned in Kabul), and to ramp up our forces to deter China (while allowing 8 million illegal aliens to flow across an open border and $33 trillion in national debt) without going on a massive war footing?

    There are likely somewhere between 600,000 and 800,000 total wounded and dead in Ukraine, in the most lethal conflict in Europe since 1945. Why is the U.S. so eager to call for a ceasefire after a fraction of those casualties in Gaza, but it is near-taboo to mention a breather amid the historical carnage, with no end in sight, in Ukraine?

    The administration always says we can do everything simultaneously, but then we never do. Rhetoric is not the same thing as trebling our arms supply chain, and cutting the budget elsewhere to pay for it, and closing our border.

    The Biden Open Border

    Given the common denominator of Russian and Gazan invading forces crossing poorly fortified borders, why would we not secure our own—far longer and less secure than either?

    The Biden border nihilism is now a losing proposition even for the leftists who helped promote it. Biden is eroding the very base of the Democratic Party, by alienating inner-city and border-district minorities. They are irate at the hordes of people stampeding into the country with the assumption that breaking our laws is their birthright.

    Even the daily mendacity of Alejandro Mayorkas and Karine Jean-Pierre cannot hide the brazen contempt for the law. Every day that the border remains open and thousands more pour in unaudited, illegally, without skills, in non-diverse fashion, and with cartel fentanyl—to the cheers of the corrupt socialist President Obrador of Mexico—the more Joe Biden is destroying his own party.

    The ruin in Gaza only reminds Americans that under present policies we will soon see thousands of America-hating, anti-Semitic Gazans seeking to pour into the United States illegally, eager to join the mass demonstrations cheering on Hamas death squads. It seems to take about a month for a radical Middle Eastern refugee, having arrived with gratitude toward his new American hosts, to take to the street on a “Day of Jihad” calling for the end of Israel (and often damning America).

    Allies as Enemies

    Abroad, we are finally accepting the long-suppressed reality that many of our “allies” are not neutrals but enemies. The U.S. bases in Qatar and Turkey, and our indifference to the pro-Hamas sentiments, if not outright aid, of both, have empowered terrorism.

    Ever so slowly, the two anti-American nations are reminding Americans that we need to draw down our forces from these hostile landscapes, which in any global crisis would likely be hostile territory for our own troops.

    Everyone knows Erdogan’s Turkey has no business in NATO—and everyone has no idea how to get them out. And so everyone puts an asterisk over Turkey as a NATO member. For now, the alliance’s only Islamist, non-democratic, and anti-Western nation is best simply avoided, since expelling Turkey appears to be more trouble than tolerating its toxic presence.

    The Palestinian State Solution 

    The Left’s shrill demand for a “two-state” solution, and tolerance of Palestinian tired and serial threats to drive Israel into the sea, are for now over. The glee with which Gazans and West Bankers met the news of mass murder, mutilation, hostage-taking, rape, and the desecration of bodies is proof enough that these dictatorial governments probably do represent the majority of their citizens.

    Most Gazans were giddy on hearing of the macabre methods of Hamas, and only wished that there had been more opportunity to spit on hostages, poke captive women, kick corpses, and torment the child and female trophies brought back from Israel. The Gazan delight in the grotesque was reminiscent of some medieval pogrom, or the Roman triumphs of old with their files of enslaved captives. And perhaps the desire to take captives and pass them back through the killing fields to Gaza reminds of the Aztec practice of seeking to capture rather than just kill their enemies, in order to have plenty of bodies for the human sacrifices on Templo Major.

    The old idea of Gaza—self-governed since 2005-2006 by “one man, one vote, once” Hamas—as a possible “Singapore” with Hyatt and Four Seasons beaches, flush with hundreds of billions of dollars from the Gulf, Europe, the U.S. and the UN, is finally revealed as the farce it always was. That fantasy was simply antithetical to the Hamas nihilist charter, the logical manifestation of which was the slaughter inside Israel of hundreds of civilians.

    BLM

    BLM was always a corrupt, disingenuous operation—the craftier successor to the Jesse Jackson/Al Sharpton 1980s corporate shake-downs. But it is has finally jumped the shark with its sick support for Hamas murderers (note its recent posters glorifying Hamas’s hang-gliding butchery).

    Its pro-death advocacy of Hamas is the pièce de résistance to the corruption and abdication of its leadership, the Kendi-con, and the lethal crime wave it helped spawn in major cities. Its racist agendas may linger for a while. But BLM is going the way of the 1960s Black Panthers—that is, one leading to general disgust, then to irrelevance, and finally to nothingness.

    The still-remaining BLM murals in our major downtowns are already embarrassments and eroding reminders of the insanity that swept the country from 2020 to the present.

    Campuses

    Universities have now crossed the Rubicon in de facto condoning their crazed students cheering on mass death. They made the argument after George Floyd that the country must listen to their pseudo-moral lectures, and now they unashamedly broadcast what they have become—traitors to the idea of an enlightened free society, and kindred spirits to the anti-Semitism, intolerance, and fascism of 1930s German universities.

    Degrees from Harvard, Yale, and Stanford will soon become, not resume badges, but either embarrassments or certifications of a mediocre education. Or both.

    Universities all rushed to embrace “decolonization”, starting with empty and ahistorical virtue signals and ending up paralyzed, as thousands of their own students showed the world how ecstatic they were over news that babies were murdered and women raped.

    In response, their invertebrate administrators and faculty sat frozen for days, calculating how best to issue “on the one hand…on the other hand” mush. The first serious politician who calls for the taxing of the huge incomes of their endowments, for yanking the government out of the student loan business and returning the moral hazard to the universities who impoverish their own students, will win overwhelming support.

    The Gaza of Hamas is going down, but so are a lot of corrupt institutions and ideas that threw in with its lot.

    I would recommend against the Nazi reference: the Nazis didn’t deny knowledge of atrocities until *after the war*, making them a bad contrast to current Palestinians.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/16/2023 – 20:35

  • IRS Contractor Who Leaked Trump, Griffin Tax Returns Used Private Website To Foil IRS
    IRS Contractor Who Leaked Trump, Griffin Tax Returns Used Private Website To Foil IRS

    A former IRS contractor who leaked the the tax returns of Donald Trump, Ken Griffin and others and leaked them to the media used a private website.

    Charles Littlejohn, 38, who worked for a contractor rumored to be Booz Allen Hamilton (of Edward Snowden fame), stole tax return information on thousands of wealthy Americans, including Trump, Griffin, Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, and then leaked them to ProPublica.

    In a Sunday court filing, his methods were revealed, Bloomberg Tax reports.

    To avoid detection, Littlejohn accessed Trump’s tax return and other information in late 2018 by querying an IRS database using more “generalized parameters” rather than directly searching for the former president’s data, according to the filing. 

    He then uploaded the data to a personal, private website he controlled rather than downloading it to a physical storage device or using a remote storage website. That allowed him to “avoid IRS protocols designed to detect and prevent large downloads or uploads” from agency devices or systems, according to the filing, which lays out the factual basis for his guilty plea. 

    That day, he used a personal computer to download the data from the private website, storing in multiple locations, including personal data storage devices like his Apple iPod. In May 2019, he contacted the Times about leaking Trump’s tax data, disclosing it between August and October of that year. 

    Weeks before then-President Trump lost the election to Joe Biden, the NY Times published the first of several stories revealing that Trump paid $750 in taxes between 2016 and 2017, and no taxes in 10 of the previous 15 years.

    Trump also lost millions of dollars from his golf courses, “vast write-offs, an audit battle and hundreds of millions in debt coming due” and that Trump earned $73 million abroad.

    Combined, Trump initially paid almost $95 million in federal income taxes over the 18 years. He later managed to recoup most of that money, with interest, by applying for and receiving a $72.9 million tax refund, starting in 2010.

    Littlejohn used a similar method to store data he stole on Griffin, Bezos and Musk – with ProPublica reporting that the tax data spanned more than 15 years.

    In uploading the data, he used two “virtual machines,” or “essentially simulated version of physical computers,” the filing said. He “promptly destroyed these machines” after using them to steal the data. 

    In September 2020, he contacted ProPublica to discuss the possibility of sharing the data on wealthy taxpayers. He then anonymously mailed the data to ProPublica on a password-protected storage device. 

    Two months later, he gave a journalist there the password. ProPublica has published nearly 50 stories based on that data. 

    ProPublica reported that billionaires including Bezos and Musk had in some years paid minimal or no income tax even as their fortunes soared. It outlined the tax strategies available to Americans in the top 0.1% of wealth. Michael Bloomberg, majority owner of Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP, was among those included in the reporting.

    Littlejohn pleaded guilty to a single charge that carries a prison term of up to five years, however he’ll likely only face eight to 14 months, according to his plea deal. He will be sentenced on Jan. 29. Trump attorney Alina Habba called the leak an “atrocity” and an “egregious breach,” and asked US District Judge Ana Reyes to impose the maximum prison term if the plea deal went forward.

    Reyes agreed with Habba that it was “unacceptable” for people to take the law into their own hands, and vowed to impose “severe consequences.” (ha).

    As Bloomberg notes, “Littlejohn worked as a contractor for the same consulting firm from 2008 to 2010, 2012 to 2013, and 2017 to 2021, according to the filing. The firm wasn’t identified.“

    Looks like Jesse Watters has some idea.

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/16/2023 – 20:15

  • Financial Free Speech
    Financial Free Speech

    Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

    At no other point in history has discussion and free speech in the world of economics and finance been as necessary as it is now.

    For those of you cut from the same financial-outlook cloth as I am, I’m sure you’ve made peace with being called a fear monger by now.

    Because apparently, pointing out the basic laws of economics that seem to stand at stark odds with our current, unprecedented Keynesian experiment makes you some type of conspiracy theorist.

    As those pushing modern monetary theory are quick to remind us, it is our brains that are broken, not the monetary system or their academic take on the economy. Take it from the woman who authored a book advocating for MMT that was published right before the country found itself mired in 7% inflation:

    “The debt isn’t the reason we can’t have nice things. Our broken thinking is. To fix our broken thinking, we need to overcome more than just an aversion to big numbers with the word debt attached. We need to beat back every destructive myth that hobbles our thinking.

    —Stephanie Kelton, The Deficit Myth

    Remember, we’re the idiots. It’s our brains that are broken. Higher rates no longer means there will be a slowdown in spending, contracting GDP no longer means recession, dollars can be printed without any consequence to anyone at any point and the war against inflation has already been won…that is, as long as you subtract food, energy, shelter and used cars from equation.

    This inane idiocy will continue, Nobel Prizes and all, until our “conspiracy” (read: math) is eventually proven true.

    Free speech is our First Amendment right for a reason: it is of grave importance. Even more important is a reminder we need more and more as the days go by: it is the speech you disagree with the most that is the most important to protect.

    In the financial world, this means those of us from the Austrian school (i.e. we can actually balance a budget, believe cash flow is vitally important to a business and understand that productivity and efficiency in an economy doesn’t come from printing dollars) are widely seen as “broken clocks” that are right “only twice a day”. In some respects, I’m fine with this.

    After all, it’s tough to argue the point that we are on a treacherous, long-term path that will result in catastrophe at an unknown point in the future because everything that every academic, analyst and media personality is saying and doing is wrong, without looking like a broken clock. Those that read me consistently know that I constantly struggle with whether or not my analysis will wind up being on the right side of history.

    But at the very least, you can’t have “rock solid” financial rules, like the ones academics swear by (and the ones that have driven us $33 trillion in debt) without having discourse that tests it regularly. This is a growing discussion we are having on a daily basis the more and more our vision of the stock and bond market, to quote Vincent Laguardia Gambini, gets “out of whack”.

    Over the last three years, under the guise of doing what is best for the collective good during a pandemic, we saw people’s right to free speech trampled on. People were kicked off social media and ostracized simply for stating their opinion if, in any way, it didn’t gel with the mainstream narrative on Covid. You couldn’t raise critical questions about vaccine safety (which are now becoming commonplace), you couldn’t suggest efficacious alternative treatments for Covid (which are now being widely accepted) and you couldn’t suggest Covid came from a lab (which is now the leading explanation for the virus).

    And it wasn’t just a ban from social media: many who expressed the above thoughts were hastily relegated to second class citizens by the same lot who walks around all day screeching about the importance of equality. Some were even fired from their jobs.

    As I pointed out in my article about the World Economic Forum earlier this year, the powers that be continue to wage a fight against “misinformation” all of kinds, which — to the best of my understanding — appears to be viewpoints that are at odds with the mainstream media, the government and big tech, regardless of whether or not they are objectively true.

    Now take that same rabid willingness to crucify those who don’t agree with the mainstream narrative and move it over to the financial world.

    The “official” stance right now — that of the Fed and its disciples — is that the war on inflation has already been won and that we are in for a “soft landing”.

    If you look closely you can actually hear her making the “baaaaa” sheep noise.

    The objective reality, as we saw by Friday’s trading (gold up 3%, oil up 5%, VIX over 20), is likely nowhere near as rosy as those expectations.

    The objective math of 5% rates on the largest debt bubble in history tells even the most lobotomized analysts who hate math, like myself, that we are probably in for a catastrophic economic slowdown. When rates rise and discretionary income dries up, spending stops, as does economic growth.

    The geopolitical outlook, given the emerging war in the Middle East, looks as bad as it has been in decades. As I wrote about days ago, for all intents and purposes, it looks as though the stock market is sitting on the edge of the end of the world.

    My guess is that as the days go by, the markets will continue to swing wildly. Who knows what will happen next? Maybe Japan will lose control of their bond market. Maybe U.S. equities will have a circuit breaker day lower. Maybe commercial real estate will plunge all at once when people start marking their books for Q3. Maybe the U.S. bond market vigilantes will take rates to 7%? Maybe commodities will explode to new all time highs.

    But make no mistake about it, something’s going to break — and it’ll be something that doesn’t fit in the “mainstream narrative” of “running this unprecedented monetary policy absolutely has to result in prosperity only, at all times, because us PhDs said so”. And when that moment comes and the public is guided to the only logical conclusion of pointing their fingers at the powers that be for decades of poor monetary and fiscal policy, the establishment will be forced to look for a villain — somewhere they can deflect blame.

    And it’ll be then that those adhering to the Austrian school – and those with just plain old common sense who have been “broken clocks” predicting this catch-22 for years – are likely going to be next to be written off no longer as just plain ole’ conspiracy theorists, but as disinformation artists and the reason for the crash.

    I implore people to watch closely as the days march on: it feels as though aggressive actions — like were taken with dissenters during Covid — could come around in the financial world next.

    As I’ve said before, I hope I’m wrong about everything and we do have a soft landing. But my common sense simply won’t let me justify that argument in my head. I feel the seeds have already been sown and, with each passing day, the importance of financial free speech rises exponentially.

    So, in the words of Big D and the Kids Table, “try out your voice”.

    QTR’s Disclaimer: I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/16/2023 – 19:55

  • Ministry Of Bulls**t Tries To Cancel Orwell As The Telegraph Follows 'Orwellian' Formula
    Ministry Of Bulls**t Tries To Cancel Orwell As The Telegraph Follows ‘Orwellian’ Formula

    There aren’t many ‘chef’s kiss’ moments these days, but The Telegraph just came close.

    In a widely panned article, The Telegraph, which is owned by British elites, just tried to cancel George Orwell for being a “sadistic, misogynistic, homophobic and sometimes violent” person whose life was “at odds with the “decency” of his writing.”

    The claims come from the biographer of Orwell’s wife, Anna Funder, who took some serious liberties in drawing her conclusions.

    Funder includes in her book letters that O’Shaughnessy wrote to a friend, Norah, discussing her marriage.

    In one, she said that she wanted to visit Norah but found it difficult because Orwell would either claim to be ill, requiring her to stay at home and tend him, or contact her while she was away, requesting that she come home again.

    Funder cited it as evidence that O’Shaughnessy was being kept in a “controlling environment”.

    There’s no other evidence presented for any of the claims in the headline, but hey – we guess you’ll just have to buy her book.

    Reactions to The Telegraph‘s attempt to cancel Orwell were severe and warranted, and the outlet’s original post on “X” received a blistering ‘ratio’ (more comments than ‘likes’).

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/16/2023 – 19:35

  • Controversy Erupts Over Calls For US To Accept Gaza Refugees Amid Israel–Hamas War
    Controversy Erupts Over Calls For US To Accept Gaza Refugees Amid Israel–Hamas War

    Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    U.S. lawmakers appear split over calls for the United States to accept refugees from Gaza displaced by the Israel–Hamas war, as experts are predicting that a million individuals might flee the region.

    Palestinian citizens evacuate their homes damaged by Israeli airstrikes in Gaza City, Gaza, on Oct. 10, 2023. (Ahmad Hasaballah/Getty Images)

    Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.), a member of the left-wing “Squad” in Congress, was cited by the New York Post as calling for the United States to “welcome refugees from Palestine,” while Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Wis.) has introduced legislation that would block people with Palestinian passports from being admitted into the country.

    “We can’t let President Biden abuse our parole and visa rules to bring unvetted Palestinians into American communities the way he did with thousands of unvetted Afghans,” Mr. Tiffany said in a statement posted on X, referring to the Biden administration’s decision to let 76,000 unvetted Afghan refugees come to the United States following the U.S. withdrawal and Taliban takeover of the country.

    “I introduced the GAZA Act to protect America’s national security.”

    He also shared the contents of the Guaranteeing Aggressors Zero Admission (GAZA) Act exclusively with Breitbart.

    The proposal would block the Biden administration’s use of the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) parole mechanism from letting Palestinians settle in the United States, according to the text of the measure, as cited by Breitbart.

    Palestinians evacuate a neighborhood in Gaza City on Oct. 11, 2023. (Mohammed Abed/AFP via Getty Images)

    While Mr. Bowman has called for the admission of Gaza refugees to the United States, he said they should be vetted prior to being allowed in.

    “Fifty percent of the population in Gaza are children,” he said. “The international community as well as the United States should be prepared to welcome refugees from Palestine while being very careful to vet and not allow members of Hamas.”

    Like Mr. Tiffany, other Republicans have expressed opposition to opening the door to Gaza refugees.

    “The U.S. is the most generous nation in the world, but we are in no position to accept additional refugees, especially from a region with as high a risk of terrorism, given our nation’s inability to secure our own border or vet those who are already here,” Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) told the NY Post.

    Likewise, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, said on Oct. 14 that the United States “cannot accept people from Gaza into this country as refugees,” saying that neighboring Arab nations should “open their borders” and take them in.

    Israel has called for a mass evacuation of Gaza ahead of a planned offensive to destroy Hamas and rescue hostages—if they’re still alive.

    A Hamas terrorist enters the Be’eri kibbutz in Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. (Israel Defense Forces/Screenshot via NTD)

    ‘Wide Range of Offensive Operating Plans’

    The Israeli military said on Oct. 14 that it had seen a “significant movement” of Palestinian civilians to the south, a day after ordering Gaza City residents to flee and later said that it was “preparing to implement a wide range of offensive operative plans” that would include coordinated strikes from the air, land, and sea.

    That came after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised further actions in response to Hamas’s Oct. 7 massacre of Israelis, in which terrorists killed at least 1,300 Israelis, mainly civilians, and seized hostages.

    The Hamas terror group, which is known for its reckless disregard for civilian lives and using human shields, has told people to ignore Israeli calls to evacuate from northern Gaza, according to the Associated Press.

    Israeli rescue workers work to remove dead bodies from near a destroyed police station that was the site of a battle following a mass infiltration by Hamas terrorists from the Gaza Strip, in Sderot, Israel, on Oct. 11, 2023. (Violeta Santos Moura/Reuters)

    The United Nations has estimated that roughly 423,000 people have been displaced in Gaza, while U.N. spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said it would be impossible to stage such a large evacuation without “devastating humanitarian consequences.”

    Mariana Dahan, founder of the World Identity Network (WIN) Foundation, told the NY Post that the Israel–Hamas conflict “may add over 1 million people to the already staggering number of 6 million Palestinian refugees in the world.”

    The Israeli military stated that Hamas has set up roadblocks and is “forcefully preventing their civilians from relocating to southern Gaza for their own safety.”

    With the rhetoric heating up around the fate of the people evacuating Gaza, the issue of Palestinian refugees has become a hot topic in Washington.

    Discussions on Capitol Hill

    President Joe Biden said consultations were underway with regional governments on the humanitarian crisis in Gaza as Palestinians endured a power blackout and shortages of food and water.

    Progressive Democrats in the House on Oct. 13 called on the Biden administration to take steps to limit civilian casualties in the Gaza Strip.

    In a letter addressed to President Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, signed by 55 House members, the lawmakers expressed their concerns about the “unfolding humanitarian crisis in Gaza” as Israel responds to the terrorist attack by Hamas.

    “As President Biden has previously stated, Israel has the right to defend its people and respond to these vicious attacks,” they wrote.

    “We strongly believe that Israel’s response must take into account the millions of innocent civilians in Gaza who themselves are victims of Hamas and are suffering the consequences of their terror campaign.”

    The Israeli military, for its part, has said it’ll “make extensive efforts to avoid harming civilians” while it carries out operations in Gaza in the coming days.

    Caden Pearson contributed to this report.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/16/2023 – 19:15

  • US Taps 2,000 Troops for Potential Deployment To Support Israel
    US Taps 2,000 Troops for Potential Deployment To Support Israel

    The Pentagon says it has selected 2,000 troops it is readying for potential deployment in support of Israel as it battles Hamas in Gaza and potentially Hezbollah across its northern border.

    Based on US officials speaking to The Wall Street Journal, American troops are not expected to serve in any combat roles, but only in advisory capacities or missions like medical support. 

    File image, US Army

    “The troops are currently stationed both inside the Middle East and outside, including Europe, the officials said,” WSJ writes. “It isn’t clear under what circumstances the U.S. could deploy the troops or to where, but the Pentagon decision signaled it is preparing to support Israeli troops should Israel launch a ground incursion into Gaza.”

    Already US Marines have been moved from Kuwait in preparation for potential greater support roles related to Israel. The Biden administration has dispatched two carrier strike groups to the general region, likely expected to enter the eastern Mediterranean at some point soon.

    Separately, a defense official told the AP that the troops would “not be sent to Israel but could be sent to countries in the region.”

    The situation remains highly fluid and unpredictable, as there have been reports that Israel’s ground invasion is “imminent” for the past three days. There are signs Israeli leaders could be delaying not only out of concern for the some 200 hostages Hamas has, but due to the threat of Hezbollah opening all-out war in the north. Iran’s threats have also been increasing. 

    The US is also assisting Israel with intelligence, particularly related to the captives, among them Americans. However, so far the Pentagon has ruled out the idea of sending US commandos as part of rescue efforts. 

    Of course, given the population density of Gaza, and given the difficult urban warfare environment, any military rescue mission might be a ‘mission impossible’ kind of scenario – even if intelligence could pinpoint their exact locations, which is unlikely.

    If Israel does go into the strip with full force, but without knowing the exact locations of the hostages, it could be highly dangerous for the captives.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/16/2023 – 18:55

  • Oh, SNAP!
    Oh, SNAP!

    Authored by Anthony Davies via The American Institute for Economic Research,

    The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has proposed an experiment in which it will provide additional benefits to Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) recipients who purchase more fruits and vegetables.

    Named the Electronic Healthy Incentive Projects (eHip), the well-meaning programs are intended to encourage people on low-incomes to eat more healthy foods (MHFs).

    (No, I made that last one up.)

    As almost every endeavor undertaken by the government will demonstrate, well-meaning intentions that are funded via the force of law often go amiss — at best, achieving less than hoped, and at worst, achieving the opposite of what was intended.

    One of the major forces that perverts well-intended government programs is regulatory capture. Once the government commits taxpayer money to an endeavor, entrepreneurs and established businesses come out of the woodwork to grab a piece of the pie. eHip will cause food producers to throw a token amount of fruits or vegetables into their existing products, thus qualifying their products for the “fruit and vegetable” subsidy. Bet on it.

    To many this may seem like a good idea.

    After all, a diet rich in fruits and vegetables is essential for maintaining good health. Upon closer examination, however, it becomes clear that this proposal is a classic example of government overreach and is likely to do more harm than good.

    The first problem with the USDA’s proposal is that it is based on the faulty assumption that people will make healthier food choices if they are paid to do so. But this is not how human behavior works. People make food choices based on a variety of factors, including taste, convenience, and price. Simply paying people to eat more fruits and vegetables is unlikely to change these underlying factors.

    But on whose behalf is the government overreaching, anyway? This seems like yet another version of the government’s “helping people to make healthy decisions” story, but the USDA is tasked with promoting the interests of American farmers. Could we be seeing yet another vested interest manifest in government?

    It’s also important to consider the USDA’s track record when it comes to providing dietary advice. The food pyramid is a perfect example of how the USDA’s dietary advice can be influenced by special interests.

    The food pyramid recommended a diet that was high in carbohydrates, you might recall.

    Cue the obesity and diabetes.

    Beyond all this, the USDA’s proposal is self-contradictory.

    The USDA’s mission statement is to “provide leadership on food, agriculture, natural resources, and related issues based on sound public policy, the best available science, and efficient management.”

    Paying people to eat more fruits and vegetables is well out of line with this. It is not sound public policy, it is not based on the best available science, and it is not efficient management.

    And it’s stupid, but let’s not quibble.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/16/2023 – 18:35

  • Trump Might Win And Have Dems To Thank
    Trump Might Win And Have Dems To Thank

    Authored by Andy Puzder via RealClear Wire,

    Former President Trump has held a slight lead in the RealClearPolitics Average of the polls since around September 11. While his lead is well within the margin of error, Democrats find it disconcerting that Biden is struggling against Trump. They have unceasingly berated, twice impeached, and four times indicted Trump, yet his support has grown. But Democrats shouldn’t be surprised. In important respects, Trump has them to thank for the strength of his support.  

    There are always a lot of moving pieces in an election and it’s early, but Trump’s current support basically comes from three groups: Those who know, love, and miss him; those who may not miss him but miss 2019’s peace and prosperity; and those who believe Democrats are corrupting our justice system to persecute a political opponent. Since 2020, Democrats have solidified support for Trump with the first two groups to the point where you have to wonder whether it was intentional – and then they literally created the third group.

    Democrats have made no effort to convert the Trump diehards – flyover country conservatives who hold traditional views of God, country, and family. Among other derogatory references, Biden has berated these voters as “an extremist movement that does not share the basic beliefs of our democracy: the MAGA movement.” That would be all those flag-waving Americans at Trump rallies.

    After deriding Trump supporters as a “basket of deplorables” in 2016, former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton recently doubled down, calling them “cult members” who may require “a formal deprogramming.”

    Suffice it to say, these voters aren’t going anywhere. They have nowhere to go.

    And who doesn’t miss 2019’s low inflation, low interest rates, low unemployment, secure border, urban calm, peace breaking out in the Middle East, and no one seriously contemplating World War III. You get nostalgic just thinking about it. The pandemic paused the momentum, but we could have returned to pre-pandemic levels of peace and prosperity when it ended. In fact, at the end of Trump’s term in office, the economy was poised for a major recovery.

    But the Biden administration’s excessive spending, anti-U.S. energy policies, lax border security, and utterly incompetent foreign policy rapidly put an end to all that. You can’t really blame people for wanting a return to the days when lower taxes, reduced regulation, a focus on domestic energy production, and a strong – and competent – foreign policy led to both peace and prosperity. The Democrats have made it patently obvious that those are not their policies – they were Trump’s.

    While Democrats deserve significant credit for Trump’s strength with the first two groups of voters, they deserve all the credit for the third. This group only exists because Democrats are prosecuting a political opponent for blatantly political reasons.

    No president or former president was ever indicted until this pre-election year when four separate Democrat prosecutors targeted and brought charges of questionable validity against a former president – who also ­­­­­happens to be the leading Republican candidate for president. While experts from both parties have questioned the legal gymnastics employed to pursue these charges, polling indicates that the American people can see through this thin veneer of legitimacy on their own. They know no Democrat would have been criminally charged for what the Democrats claim Trump did. In fact, none have been.

    There’s a 24-minute YouTube video of Democrats denying election results without fear of prosecution.

    President Biden had top secret documents from his time as VP – which he had no right to possess – sitting in his garage (and elsewhere) without fear of prosecution.

    Hillary Clinton’s staff used a software program called “BleachBit,” to wipe data from her computer server containing thousands of government emails she had no right to possess – including top secret emails. FBI Director James Comey said at the time that “[w]hile there is evidence of potential violations regarding the handling of classified information, our judgment is that no reasonable prosecutor would bring such a case.” Voters may well wonder whether the rules of reason have changed.

    In perhaps the most absurd case, a Trump-hating New York prosecutor, who ran on a promise to target him, is threatening to destroy Trump’s family business for allegedly overstating the value of assets to obtain loans. It is undisputed that the loans were never in default, were paid off in full, and that no lenders have complained they were misled.

    Of course they haven’t. Any American who has purchased a home knows it doesn’t matter what you tell the lender you think the home is worth. Banks don’t lend based on the borrower’s assessment of an asset’s value. Banks do an independent appraisal and lend based on their own appraisal.

    You don’t have to find Trump a sympathetic figure to know that sacrificing the legitimacy of our judicial system to destroy a political opponent threatens what Biden called “the basic beliefs of our democracy.”

    This obvious abuse has also solidified support among Trump’s other supporters, dissuading them from switching to other primary candidate. Some see this as the Democrats’ plan to strengthen Trump in the primaries because they believe he is the candidate they can beat. Personally, I believe the Democrats are driven more by blind hatred at this point than reason. But, if that is their plan, it’s a risky one.

    Keep in mind that we elect presidents through the electoral college, not by popular vote. Democrat voters are concentrated in heavily populated urban areas in blue states, driving up the percentage of Democrat votes in those states. But winning 51% of a state’s popular vote produces no more electoral college votes than winning 100%, as losing presidential candidates – but popular vote victors – Al Gore and Hillary Clinton can attest.

    So, a tie in the popular vote (as reflected in the current polling) augurs well for Trump’s chances. Combining Trump diehards and those nostalgic for 2019 with voters repulsed by political persecution just might be enough to reelect our 45th president as our 47th. If so, we’ll have some overreaching Democrat prosecutors to thank.

    Andrew F. Puzder is the former CEO of CKE Restaurants, Inc. and a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation and the Pepperdine University School of Public Policy.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/16/2023 – 17:55

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Oct 16

Today’s News 16th October 2023

  • Are Cold War Treaties Beginning To Crumble?
    Are Cold War Treaties Beginning To Crumble?

    Authored by RFE/RL Staff via OilPrice.com,

    • The CTBT, signed in 1996, aimed to reduce the threat of nuclear war and the spread of radioactive material.

    • Despite the US not ratifying it, most signatories, including Russia and the US, have adhered to its terms.

    • Tensions and increased weapon development hint at Russia’s potential decision to withdraw, further eroding international arms control frameworks.

    The Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. The Treaty on Open Skies. New START.

    For years, the pillars of international arms control have been crumbling: agreements signed by Washington, Moscow, and others during and after the Cold War aimed at reducing the threat of nuclear war, costly arms races, or overall military tensions.

    The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty may be the next to go.

    Signed in 1996, the treaty was a major step to preventing the spread of nuclear weapons technology and keeping a lid on the arsenals of the world’s biggest nuclear powers. Along with earlier treaties, the agreement, known as the CTBT, also aimed to reduce the spread of radioactive material that was blasted into the atmosphere and the oceans during the frenzied days of the Cold War.

    Here’s the problem: The treaty never went into effect because a number of countries, including the United States, never ratified it.

    Still, most signatories — including Russia and the United States, whose arsenals are by far the biggest in the world — have abided by the ban.

    Now, however, Russia is making noises about backing out and “de-ratifying” the treaty.

    Here’s what you need to know about the CTBT and its potential unraveling:

    How’d It Come About?

    The United States and the Soviet Union, as well as Britain, conducted hundreds of nuclear tests between 1945, when the world’s first atomic bomb was detonated in the U.S. state of New Mexico and 1961, when Soviet officials detonated the world’s most powerful weapon, the Tsar Bomba. France joined the nuclear testing club in 1960; China, in 1964.

    The fallout, literal and figurative, from the testing led to a partial ban on atmospheric, oceanic, and space tests in 1963; underground tests continued to be allowed.

    In 1974, India tested its first nuclear device, further expanding the nuclear club. A 1980 test by China became the last atmospheric test by any country anywhere.

    Moscow’s final test — underground — occurred in October 1990 on the remote Arctic archipelago called Novaya Zemlya. Britain, the United States, France, and China all conducted their final tests in the years that followed, prior to 1996, mainly underground.

    What’s It Do?

    The CTBT basically bans all tests that result in a fission chain reaction, essentially a nuclear explosion.

    Signed in 1996, the treaty was sent out to 187 signatory countries for ratification, but it has never come into effect because of a group of holdout countries.

    Russia signed and ratified the treaty in 2000. The United States signed, but the U.S. Senate refused to ratify, citing concerns about verifying other countries’ compliance with the ban. Despite nonratification, the United States has complied with the moratorium. China signed but didn’t ratify.

    Neither India, nor Pakistan, nor North Korea — all of which have conducted open nuclear tests since 1996 — is a member.

    The treaty does allow for states to conduct subcritical, or zero-yield tests. Those involve explosives and nuclear materials but do not result in a fission reaction, the reaction that gives atomic weapons their terrible power. Both the United States and Russia are known to have conducted such tests.

    Despite not ratifying the treaty, the United States does provide $33 million annually in funding for a system set up to monitor possible nuclear tests, as well as the Vienna-based organization charged with overseeing it.

    What’s The Problem Now?

    As relations between Washington and Moscow have worsened, major treaties between them have also frayed or collapsed entirely.

    Washington unilaterally pulled out of the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty in 2002, angering Moscow. Washington for years accused Moscow of trying to cheat on the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty until it effectively collapsed in 2019. In 2021, Russia withdrew from the Treaty on Open Skies, which allows countries to conduct surveillance flights over one another’s territories in order to observe weapons and military sites.

    Both countries have adhered to New START, which capped the number of warheads and “delivery vehicles” each could possess.

    New START’s extension, by both Russia and the United States in early 2021, was a lone bright spot in the continuing erosion of arms control.

    But the agreement expires in 2026 and cannot be extended. Unless a successor treaty can be agreed upon and ratified, there will be no limits on the countries’ arsenals after that year. Tensions over Ukraine have kept the two sides from even sending inspectors to one another’s countries, as stipulated for in New START.

    Both countries have also moved to modernize and upgrade their arsenals. But in a sign of deepening distrust, the U.S. State Department suggested in a 2022 report that Russia had not adhered to the standard of “zero-yield” testing.

    So Russia Wants To Pull Out Then?

    For more than a decade, the Kremlin has increased spending not only on conventional weapons and force strength but also on modernizing and expanding its strategic arsenal.

    In 2018, Putin boasted that Russia was developing new weapons like an unmanned, nuclear-capable, underwater torpedo, and a hypersonic “glide” missile. He also bragged of the development of a nuclear-powered cruise missile — the Burevestnik, which has had major problems.

    In recent years, researchers have been monitoring a surge of activity on the Novaya Zemlya archipelago: satellite imagery showing an uptick of construction at one or possibly two settlements that researchers had identified as sites for a possible test of a nuclear device or the trouble-plagued Burevestnik.

    A top Russian nuclear researcher called for Russia to resume testing, and on October 5 Putin announced a successful test of the Burevestnik, though he provided no details.

    Putin also opened to the door to Russia resuming nuclear testing, saying it could “de-ratify” the CTBT. A week later, on October 12, the speaker of the State Duma, the lower house of parliament, introduced legislation to withdraw ratification.

    The prospect of Russia withdrawing prompted alarm bells, including from the CTBTO, the Vienna-based organization charged with monitoring compliance.

    What Happens Next?

    Even if “de-ratification” ends up happening, as is likely in the Kremlin-controlled parliament, that does not necessarily mean Russia will start blowing up uranium or plutonium again, on Novaya Zemlya or otherwise.

    “I think that withdrawal of ratification is a strictly political step — leveling status with the U.S.,” said Nikolai Sokov, a former Russian Foreign Ministry official and arms control expert.

    “I think the main motive is the perception that ‘Russia tried too hard in the past and made too many concessions’ and now ‘We’re not interested in arms control more than other countries.'”

    Leonid Slutsky, head of the Duma’s foreign affairs committee, emphasized that Russia would not be withdrawing its signature under the treaty or “withdrawing from the voluntary moratorium on nuclear testing.”

    “We are withdrawing the ratification, thus restoring legislative parity with the U.S. Congress,” he told the newspaper Kommersant.

    “It was especially important for [the CTBTO] to hear that revoking ratification does not mean that Russia intends to resume nuclear tests and implies that Russia will continue to fully participate in the work being done for the Treaty’s entry into force,” Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia’s ambassador in Vienna, told the state news agency RIA Novosti.

    Still, it’s not a good sign, experts say — all the more so, given the demise of other treaties.

    Russia or any major nuclear power backing out of the CTBT “would be a huge blow to the [global nonproliferation] regime and would undoubtedly lead to a cascade of nuke testing by other states,” Lynn Rusten, a former U.S. arms control negotiator, told RFE/RL.

    There could also be other nonproliferation or arms control treaties that are at risk, since, according to Sokov, the Kremlin has initiated a review of all similar agreements.

    One strong candidate for “de-ratification” or a downgrading of Russia’s involvement, he said, is the 1992 Chemical Weapons Convention, which obligates members to destroy their stocks of chemical weapons.

    Russia’s compliance with that treaty has been in question since the near-fatal poisonings of former Russian intelligence agent Sergei Skripal in England in 2018 and opposition activist Aleksei Navalny in Siberia in 2020.

    In both cases, Western scientists identified a powerful Soviet-era nerve agent and suggested that Russia had maintained a secret, undeclared chemical weapons program.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/16/2023 – 02:00

  • Lipson: The Sick Alliance Between The Left And Muslim Extremists
    Lipson: The Sick Alliance Between The Left And Muslim Extremists

    Authored by Charles Lipson via RealClearPolitics.com,

    The virulent anti-Israel protests across America and Europe throw a glaring light on the bizarre alliance between left-wing activists and militant Muslims. That odd combination has been the bedrock of political activism at universities and in the streets for years. It began in universities, where it now dominates political discourse, threatens Jewish students, and intimidates anyone brave enough to voice their dissent. We can now see how it has spread far beyond the campus.

    What makes the alliance so strange are the deep-seated differences between leftists and Muslim fundamentalists over core beliefs.

    The left supports women’s rights and full equality in the workplace and public sphere. Militant Muslims oppose them.

    The left supports gay rights and gay marriage. Militant Muslims toss gays off buildings. None would dare hold a public march in Pakistan, Iran, or Saudi Arabia.

    The left supports abortion rights. Militant Muslims oppose them.

    The left supports religious freedom, including the right to reject religion altogether. Militant Muslims believe heretics should be executed.

    The left rallies against book banning. Militant Muslims embrace it for any book they believe insults Islam or supports Israel.

    The left opposes the death penalty. Militant Muslims endorse it and praise their governments for using it.

    These beliefs are not marginal for either group. They are foundational, and they are profoundly opposed to each other. Still, the two groups have formed a long-standing alliance. How do they deal with these profound differences? And why are they allied?

    They deal with differences very simply: They never mention them when they act jointly, primarily against Israel and its supporters across the world. They have joined together to form a more powerful coalition against shared enemies. They would destroy that partnership by raising issues where they differ.

    Far better to focus on their agreement, which goes beyond hating Israel to claim Western capitalism has oppressed, degraded, and ruined the world. Since the U.S. is now the world’s greatest power, it is tagged as the main source of that malignancy, at home and abroad. As they see it, Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America are poor because they have been oppressed by capitalist nations and their corporations. If they have terrible governments, they have them only because the West has installed and sustained them.

    This critique is based on a shared, but muddled, ideology. The heart of that ideology is its illiberalism. Both groups are fundamentally opposed to the forbearance of individual differences, including very different views and goals, that are essential to Western constitutional democracies. In their place, these opponents rely on a toxic brew of ideas drawn from:

    • Karl Marx, of course

    • Franz Fanon (“The Wretched of the Earth”)

    • Edward Said (“Orientalism”)

    • Herbert Marcuse (and the Frankfurt School of “cultural Marxism”)

    • And, for the most extreme Muslims, revolutionary theologians like Sayyid Qutb, the intellectual father of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood and its subsidiary in Gaza, Hamas

    The mixture of these ideas makes a confused jumble. But “incoherent” doesn’t mean “useless.” It serves as a kind of makeshift glue that binds disparate groups in opposition to what they see as the West’s oppressive bourgeois culture, its tolerance for divergent views, and the unequal outcomes produced by market competition (softened by transfer payments). Overturn it all, they say, in the name of “social justice.” They have no idea of what to replace it with. In fact, the coalition would break apart if either side emphasized its proposed alternatives.

    This negative, often nihilistic, ideology inverts the old adage, “might makes right.” Their implicit claim is that “weakness and poverty make right.” It doesn’t. What’s right or wrong has nothing to do with who has wealth and power and who does not.

    These self-proclaimed champions of the poor add one more sloppy argument to the mix. They claim people are poor and weak only because they have been oppressed and exploited.

    One implication is that people in poor countries would be far better off if they had never been touched by the West and its institutions. They would thrive under their own social and political systems (and, in the West, some version of socialism). That, at least, is the unspoken claim underlying the coalition of the left and militant Islam. Some progressives (who aren’t poor) make common cause by self-flagellation. They are “repentant oppressors.” Their remorse has all the religious fervor of medieval monks who wore hairshirts and beat themselves with whips for their sins.

    The idea that the West is responsible for the world’s poverty has a core of truthful criticism next to a mountain of lies. One doesn’t have to apologize for colonialism to note that almost everyone on planet Earth lived in grinding poverty until the cumulative effects of industrialization began to take hold after 1800. That process began in northwestern Europe and gradually spread across the world, lifting income, health, diet, and life expectancy. Where it failed was in countries racked by civil unrest or governed by rapacious regimes that didn’t provide public order or secure property rights and stole the revenues needed to provide essential public goods.

    As for human liberation, no societies voluntarily ended human bondage until the West did it, mostly in the 18th and 19th centuries. Britain spent enormous sums stationing its navy off the African coast to prevent the transshipment of slaves, which had been captured and sold by local tribes. Britain gained nothing financially from that effort; it did it for moral reasons. In America, “free states” in the North and Midwest abolished slavery well before the Civil War. The war itself ended slavery, though blacks were still oppressed for another century by Jim Crow laws (in the South) and segregation (everywhere). Those practices were always inconsistent with the Western ideal of human equality and were finally outlawed in the mid-1960s by the Civil Rights Act and Voting Rights Act.

    The current fight over millions of illegal immigrants obscures one fact common to all modern states and two crucial features of American history. The common fact is that state sovereignty includes the essential right to control who can enter each country. What makes U.S. history so unusual is that it has welcomed tens of millions of legal immigrants and integrated them, by fits and starts, into a society where common citizenship transcends ethnic and religious heritage. Today, most Americans appreciate the fruits of that integration in art, music, food, and culture, drawn from multiple cultural traditions. The left, with its focus on identity politics, damns much of that sharing as “cultural appropriation.” It is a deliberate attempt to divide the country into separate, opposed camps, based on birth.

    The depth of this ideological rot is most visible on college campuses, where some students (and a few faculty) hate America and Israel so much they have actually rallied in support of Hamas and attempted to justify its atrocities as somehow the liberation of the poor and oppressed. It’s a disgusting idea.

    It’s high time Americans went beyond revulsion and defended their basic, liberal ideals and the constitutional democracy founded upon them. We don’t have to accept the mantle of “oppressors” because of events that happened long before we were born, for which we are not responsible, and from which we never profited. We don’t have to accept the damning slur that our success is due to “privilege” rather than hard work, time-tested values, and a good education. The greatest “privilege” is not inherited wealth or status. It is being raised in a stable home by loving parents, living in an orderly community, and growing up in a country where each of us is free to pursue our own goals and define ourselves as we choose.

    We can and should recognize America’s flaws – and work toward correcting them – without falsely painting our nation’s past as primarily a legacy of slavery and stolen wealth (the “1619” project and its twin, “decolonization” studies).

    America is a great nation, for all its flaws.

    Its greatness lay in the experiment of 1776 and establishment of a democracy that has endured and slowly incorporated all its people into the body politic.

    The values that undergird that democracy are worth remembering, worth cherishing, and worth fighting to keep, even as a vile coalition celebrates those who kidnap and murder in the perverted name of religion. That’s not “social justice.” That’s an age-old crime.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/15/2023 – 23:45

  • How The Dianne Feinstein Effect Wrecked The Future
    How The Dianne Feinstein Effect Wrecked The Future

    Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com,

    “As interest costs go up in the United States, you get in this vicious circle, where higher interest rates cause higher funding costs, cause higher debt issuance, which cause further bond liquidation, which cause higher rates, which puts us in an untenable fiscal position.”

    – Paul Tudor Jones, October 10, 2023

    Feeling the Pinch

    The difficulties that an overindebted economy will encounter from rising interest rates range far and wide.  Though they shouldn’t come as a surprise.

    Quite frankly, it’s real simple.  As interest rates rise, borrowing money becomes more expensive.

    Car payments are an obvious example of the effects of rising interest rates.  The average new car loan today has a monthly payment over $750, with an interest rate of 9.5 percent.  What’s more, the monthly payment for roughly 17 percent – or about 1 in 6 – of new vehicle loans is over $1,000.

    Financing a house purchase has also become grossly expensive.  The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is around 7.65 percent.  Several years ago, it was below 2.65 percent.

    According to Zillow’s fall housing market outlook, “the monthly principal and interest to buy a typical home has increased 122 percent in the past three years.”

    Homeowner’s insurance has also gone through the roof.  In fact, from May 2022 to May 2023, the national average home insurance costs were up 21 percent.  This is on top of a 12 percent home insurance increase between May 2021 and May 2022.

    Naturally, housing affordability is at an all-time low.  By one estimate, incomes would have to jump 55 percent for housing to be considered affordable.

    But it’s not just those financing car or house purchases that are feeling the pinch.  Some companies are also finding that higher interest rates are a great big problem for business operations.  As borrowing costs rise, debt servicing takes a giant bite out of profits.

    To adapt, businesses must either reduce costs or persuade customers to pay more for their products and services.  Some businesses, through a combination of these alternatives, will succeed.  Others will go bankrupt.

    Net Interest Record

    There were 16 bankruptcies filed by companies with more than $1 billion in assets during the first 6-months of 2023.  According to Cornerstone Research, this is over 45 percent higher than the first-half-year average of 11 bankruptcies filed by companies with more than $1 billion in assets from 2005 through 2022.

    The effects of rising interest rates on the cost of home loans, car loans and business loans, is putting a tight squeeze on the economy.  When these loans go unpaid, and the debt goes bad, the banking sector will be in a world of hurt.

    These same dynamics, of rising interest rates and increased loan payments, are also putting the squeeze on Washington.  Federal debt has been completely out of control for decades.  Higher interest rates are now increasing the annual cost of servicing the massive pile of federal debt, which has now amassed to over $33 trillion.

    Net interest – what the Treasury pays to service the debt – in fiscal year 2023 came in at $660 billion.  This marked a new record and was well above the prior record for net interest ever spent in the budget of $476 billion in FY2022.

    The critical reason for the net interest disaster is the immense amount of debt the Treasury will have to roll over at higher rates over the next 12 months.  Roughly $7.6 trillion of publicly held outstanding U.S. government debt will mature in the next year.  This will have to be financed at interest rates that are dramatically higher than they were just a few years ago.

    Fundamental Insanity

    The fiscal fundamentals facing the U.S. Treasury are, in a word, insane.  By all honest accounts there’s just too much doggone debt.  There’s no way it will ever honestly be paid off.

    Brian Riedl, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, recently crunched the numbers.  What he found is an unadulterated disaster.

    “Even with no additional spending expansions — Washington is already scheduled to borrow $119 trillion over the next three decades, pushing the debt toward 200 percent of the economy.  Even at the low interest rates projected by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a debt this massive would leave interest payments as the largest federal expenditure, consuming more than one-third of all federal taxes.  Any additional borrowing would just pour gasoline on the fire.”

    Yet additional borrowing is the name of the game in Washington.  For FY2023, the federal government ran a deficit of $1.7 trillion.  Moreover, it is likely interest rates will be much higher than those projected by the CBO.

    The 2-year Treasury note currently yields about 5 percent.  In February 2021, its yield was 0.12 percent.  So, the fundamental insanity Riedl identified will, in reality, be even more insane.

    Thus, as the interest rate on government debt resets higher, taxpayers – including you – will see more and more of their tax dollars going to pay net interest.

    Any honest observer knew this day would come.  Though for government officials it was a mounting problem that was much, much easier to ignore.

    Why stick your neck out for a problem that may be pushed off into the future, beyond your lifetime?

    How the Dianne Feinstein Effect Wrecked the Future

    Dianne Feinstein, for instance, was a U.S. senator for over 30 years.  Now, after decades of terrible decisions, she’s up and kicked the bucket.

    Feinstein will never have to face the full ramifications of her handiwork. 

    Many others, with zero respect for the future, also know the messes they’ve made will be left for others to contend with.

    Joe Biden, George Dubya Bush, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Donald Rumsfeld (dead), Mitch McConnell, Harry Reid (dead), Mitt Romney, Dick Cheney, Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, Lindsey Graham, Elizabeth Warren, Paul Wolfowitz, Barack Obama, Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, Barbara Boxer, Robert Byrd (dead), and many, many more.

    “In the long run, we are all dead,” said 20th Century economist and all-around statist, John Maynard Keynes.

    This, in short, was Keynes’ rationale for why governments should borrow from the future to fund economic growth today.  This rationale provided the faux academic justification that allowed Congress to promise roses without thorns, rainbows without rain, and salvation without repentance.

    Attempting to spend a nation to prosperity using borrowed money at everyday low rates courtesy of the Fed is not without consequences. 

    In the short run, an illusion of wealth can be erected.  In the long run, that illusion slips into decay and disrepair.  Rising interest rates expedite the failure of fiscal recklessness.

    Contrary to Keynes’ dangerous claptrap, racking up massive amounts of government debt hasn’t delivered the nirvana of rising long-term living standards. 

    Rather it delivered the disparity of stagnating GDP and rapidly rising government debt, and an extreme wealth gap to boot.

    No doubt, as Yogi Berra noted, “The future ain’t what it used to be.”

    In the long run, some of us are not dead after all.  We’re all still here, living with the consequences of a failed state.

    *  *  *

    Today, more than ever, unconventional investing ideas are needed.  Discover how to protect your wealth and financial privacy, using the Financial First Aid Kit.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/15/2023 – 23:10

  • Which Countries Receive The Most Foreign Aid From The US?
    Which Countries Receive The Most Foreign Aid From The US?

    The United States provided more than $50 billion in aid to over 150 countries and territories, regional funds, and NGOs in 2021.

    Each year, Congress appropriates foreign assistance based on national security, commercial, and humanitarian interests.

    In this map via Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti, USAFacts uses data from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) to highlight the countries that received the largest portion of aid.

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    Food Assistance and the War on Drugs

    In 2021, the U.S. directed its aid towards nations grappling with internal conflicts and humanitarian crises.

    Following the withdrawal of American troops that same year, Afghanistan emerged as the primary recipient of substantial aid, receiving billions of dollars annually as part of the humanitarian response.

    Country Assistance (USD) Top Activity
    🇦🇫 Afghanistan $1.5 billion Humanitarian Assistance
    🇪🇹 Ethiopia $1.4 billion Emergency Food Assistance
    🇯🇴 Jordan $1.3 billion Cash Transfer
    🇾🇪 Yemen $1.1 billion Emergency Food Assistance
    🇸🇸 South Sudan $1.0 billion Emergency Food Assistance
    🇨🇩 DRC $891 million Emergency Food Assistance
    🇸🇾 Syria $844 million Humanitarian Assistance
    🇳🇬 Nigeria $828 million Global Health Supply Chain
    🇨🇴 Colombia $761 million Counter-Narcotics
    🇸🇩 Sudan $620 million Emergency Food Assistance

    Among the top countries benefiting from U.S. assistance are various African nations contending with both famine and internal conflicts. Notably, Colombia stands out in the top 10, receiving millions of dollars to combat drug trafficking.

    Israel Leading in Aid Over Time

    Since the end of World War II, the U.S. has disbursed more than $3.75 trillion in foreign aid (adjusted for inflation).

    The post-war years saw foreign aid peak, primarily because of the Marshall Plan. This initiative aimed to assist in restoring the economic infrastructure of post-war Europe.

    At its height in 1949, U.S. foreign aid totaled nearly $100 billion.

    Israel has been by far the largest cumulative recipient of U.S. foreign assistance. Since the 1940s, Israel has received more than $300 billion, with most of it in military support, aiding the country in developing a missile defense system and other projects.

    The primary reason for this foreign aid has been to guarantee U.S. interests in the region, given Israel’s proximity to Syria to the northeast, Hezbollah-influenced Lebanon to the north, and an Islamist insurgency in Egypt’s Sinai to the south.

    After a two-decade conflict that took millions of Vietnamese lives and roughly 58,000 American lives, Vietnam is Washington’s second-largest recipient of financial support. This money is used for economic and technological cooperation, military support, and even to aid cleanup efforts from the U.S. military’s use of Agent Orange in Vietnam during the war.

    Since 1975, Egypt has been a significant recipient of substantial foreign aid from the United States, primarily as part of diplomatic efforts to mitigate tensions in the Arab-Israeli context.

    Washington also sent large aid packages to South Vietnam, South Korea, and other countries during the Cold War.

    Since 2003, much of the money has been directed toward Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

    The Debate Surrounding U.S. Foreign Aid

    According to a recent report by the Congressional Research Service, foreign aid can serve as a means to bolster the United States’ global influence, tackle worldwide challenges, and advance common values.

    Nonetheless, the same report reveals that certain Americans and Members of Congress consider foreign aid an expenditure the country cannot afford, given current budget deficits and competing budget priorities.

    In 2021, U.S. assistance to other countries accounted for around 0.7% of the federal government’s total expenditures.

     

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/15/2023 – 22:35

  • Turley: New Evidence May Destroy Biden's Defense In His Classified Documents Case
    Turley: New Evidence May Destroy Biden’s Defense In His Classified Documents Case

    Authored by Jonathan Turley, op-ed via The Hill,

    This month, the sudden appearance of Special Counsel Robert Hur caused as much of a stir as Bigfoot suddenly appearing on Pennsylvania Avenue.

    Unlike his counterpart, Special Counsel Jack Smith, who has been aggressively prosecuting former president Donald Trump, Hur has virtually disappeared since his appointment to investigate President Joe Biden. Hur surfaced to interview Biden over his possession of classified documents, including some that go back to his time as a U.S. senator.

    I have referred to Hur as a “neutron prosecutor” — a special counsel with no possible charge, under Justice Department policy barring the indictment of a sitting president. If that was not enough of a problem, Hur may have growing evidence that accounts offered by the White House over the discovery of the documents are false.

    The new evidence could prove transformative, not only for the criminal but the impeachment investigation of the president.

    This week, the House Oversight Committee released a new timeline on the discovery of classified documents in various locations associated with Biden. From the outset, many of us flagged problems with the account that had been given by Biden, who insisted that he had no knowledge or involvement in the removal or use of the documents.

    The most glaring problem is that, after they were removed at the end of his term as vice president, the documents were repeatedly moved and divided up. Some were found in the Penn Center office used by Biden in Washington, D.C. Others were found in his garage and reportedly in his library. 

    Biden made clear from the beginning that he expected the investigation to be perfunctory and brief. He publicly declared that he has “no regrets” over his own conduct and told the public that the documents investigation would soon peter out when it determined that “there is no ‘there’ there.”

    Now, however, it appears that a critical claim by the White House in the scandal may not only be false, but was knowingly false at the time it was made. The White House and Biden’s counsel have long maintained that, as soon as documents were discovered in the D.C. office, they notified the national archives. Many asked why they did not call the FBI, but the White House has at least maintained that, unlike Trump, they took immediate action to notify authorities.

    However, it now appears that this was not true.

    One of the closest aides to Biden and a close friend to Hunter Biden is Annie Tomasini. She referred to Hunter as her “brother” and signed off messages with “LY” or “love you.”

    Tomasini was once a senior aide to Joe Biden and, according to the Oversight Committee, inspected the classified material on March 18, 2021, two months after Biden took office — nearly 20 months before they were said to be found by the Biden team.

    The committee now alleges that the White House “omitted months of communications, planning, and coordinating among multiple White House officials, [Kathy] Chung, Penn Biden Center employees, and President Biden’s personal attorneys to retrieve the boxes containing classified materials. The timeline also omitted multiple visits from at least five White House employees, including Dana Remus, Anthony Bernal, Ashley Williams, Annie Tomasini, and an unknown staffer.”

    If true, the evidence demolishes the timeline long maintained by the Biden team. That could have an immediate impact on both the criminal and impeachment investigations.

    The timeline has been a critical distinction drawn by the White House in distinguishing this matter from the Trump indictment, in which Smith charged the former president with 37 counts, including retaining classified information, obstructing justice and making false statements, and other charges.

    Biden insisted that he was entirely “surprised” by the discovery of the documents in Nov. 2021.

    He echoed the narrative of both his lawyers and the media at large:

    “And they did what they should have done,” he said.

    “They immediately called the Archives — immediately called the Archives, turned them over to the Archives, and I was briefed about this discovery.”

    In reality, Biden’s counsel and associates conducted repeated searches and declared repeatedly that no further classified documents were found. That was repeatedly found to be untrue.

    Moreover, the concern is that Biden’s lawyers, in the course of these private searches, may have consolidated material and contaminated the scene by the time FBI agents conducted their searches. This includes changing how documents were originally stored and whether classified markings were visible to anyone working around the Biden home or garage.

    Now it appears that the discovery had actually been made months earlier.

    The timeline would now more closely mirror Trump’s timeline in the knowing retention of classified material, the failure to turn over all of the classified material despite assurances from counsel, and alleged false accounts about the document’s discovery.

    It is not clear what Hur can do if he finds either from witnesses or forensic testing (including perhaps fingerprints on the documents) that President Biden lied.

    I have long disagreed with the policy that the Justice Department has long held, that prosecutors should not indict a sitting president. Were he to seek an indictment, Hur would have to ask for reconsideration of the policy based on a decades-old memo issued by the Office of Legal Counsel under President Bill Clinton, who at the time faced calls for an indictment for perjury.

    The DOJ policy will also put pressure on the House in its ongoing impeachment inquiry. In my recent testimony at the first Biden impeachment inquiry hearing, I mapped out four possible articles of impeachment. They included obstruction and abuse of power.

    If this new timeline is accurate, the question is whether Biden knew that the account being put forward by his staff and counsel was false. It also raises the question of whether the president knowingly possessed classified documents and lied about their removal, use, and discovery. Finally, if Biden repeated his public denials to Hur, there could be added allegations of false statements to federal investigators, another commonly-charged federal crime.

    We still have to see if there is evidence to support such crimes, but what is clear is that the past narrative may no longer suffice.

    In his press conference announcing the criminal charges against Trump, Smith declared, “We have one set of laws in this country, and they apply to everyone….Nothing more, nothing less.”

    The question for Hur is whether they can also apply to a sitting president. Likewise, if these allegations are true and Biden knowingly committed these crimes, the question for Congress could be whether he should remain as president. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/15/2023 – 22:00

  • And Now This: US Must Be Ready For Simultaneous Wars With China, Russia, Bipartisan Report Warns
    And Now This: US Must Be Ready For Simultaneous Wars With China, Russia, Bipartisan Report Warns

    It’s only appropriate that at a time when the senile commander in chief is preparing to unleash several mushroom clouds of “world peace” – which is code for the Nobel prize committee to give the “big guy” his long overdue Peace Prize as the world teeters over the edge of one or more world wars…

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    …. that a congressionally appointed bipartisan panel said on Thursday that the United States must prepare for possible simultaneous wars with Russia and China by expanding its conventional forces, strengthening alliances and enhancing its nuclear weapons modernization program.

    The report from the Strategic Posture Commission – which appears to be nothing more than a ghost writer for the Military Industrial Complex and its identical twin, the deep state, both of which stand to make quadrillions should the US jump right into the coming world war, comes amid tensions with China over Taiwan and other issues and worsening frictions with Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

    “The United States and its allies must be ready to deter and defeat both adversaries simultaneously,” the Strategic Posture Commission said. “The U.S.-led international order and the values it upholds are at risk from the Chinese and Russian authoritarian regimes.”

    Some more details: congress in 2022 created the panel of six Democrats and six Republicans to assess long-term threats to the United States and recommend changes in U.S. conventional and nuclear forces. The panel accepted a Pentagon forecast that China’s rapid nuclear arsenal expansion likely will give it 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035, confronting the United States with a second major nuclear-armed rival for the first time.

    The Chinese and Russian threats will become acute in the 2027-2035 timeframe so “decisions need to be made now in order for the nation to be prepared,” said the 145-page report. The report also said the 30-year U.S. nuclear arms modernization program, which began in 2010 and was estimated in 2017 to cost around $400 billion by 2046, must be fully funded to upgrade all warheads, delivery systems and infrastructure on schedule.

    Other recommendations included deploying more tactical nuclear weapons in Asia and Europe, developing plans to deploy some or all reserve U.S. nuclear warheads, and production of more B-21 stealth bombers and new Columbia-class nuclear submarines beyond the numbers now planned.

    It wasn’t immediately clear if the report assumed that Russia and China would just sit there an quietly applaud as the US doubled its tactical nuclear weapons in Asia and Europe.

    The panel also called for boosting the “size, type, and posture” of U.S. and allied conventional forces. If such measures are not taken, the United States “will likely” have to increase its reliance on nuclear weapons, the report said.

    * * *

    Cited by Reuters, a senior official involved in the report declined to say if the panel’s intelligence briefings showed any Chinese and Russian nuclear weapons cooperation.

    “We worry … there may be ultimate coordination between them in some way, which gets us to this two-war construct,” the official said on condition of anonymity.

    The findings would upend current U.S. national security strategy calling for winning one conflict while deterring another and – most importantly – require huge defense spending increases with uncertain congressional support. Which, one can argue, is precisely the impetus behind the report because at a time when the interest expense on US debt is about to surpass defense spending in the $1+ trillion spending category.

    And sure enough: “We do recognize budget realities, but we also believe the nation must make these investments,” the Democratic chair, neocon Madelyn Creedon, a former deputy head of the agency that oversees U.S. nuclear weapons, and the vice chair, Jon Kyl, a retired Republican senator, said in the report’s preface.

    Addressing a briefing held to release the report, Kyl said the president and Congress must “take the case to the American people” that higher defense spending is a small price to pay “to hopefully preclude” a possible nuclear war involving the United States, China and Russia.

    So… the US must double its defense spending (call it $1 trillion -> $2 trillion) to deter not one but two nuclear powers, just so there is no nuclear war? 

    That sounds awfully like the strategy that brought down the USSR. Which considering the level of Marxism in the US these days, may not be the worst strategy.

    For now, the big guy hasn’t realized that his “10” will be much bigger if he greenlights the pursuit and prepayment of nuclear war on two fronts: the report contrasts with U.S. President Joe Biden’s position that the current U.S. nuclear arsenal is sufficient to deter the combined forces of Russia and China. But at the rate the walls are closing in on the Biden family, we expect it won’t be long before Biden realizes that to make the decisionmakers in Stockholm happy and receives the same ridiculous peace “award” that Barack also got, he will need to double down to war.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/15/2023 – 21:35

  • Shouting Your Pronouns In A Crowded Theater
    Shouting Your Pronouns In A Crowded Theater

    via RealClear Wire,

    The following is a condensed version of “Shouting Your Pronouns in a Crowded Theater” by Dave Barfield, published at Law & Liberty.

    Let’s try out a thought experiment. Imagine you’re in a crowded theater and someone yells, “Fire!” What happens? People flee the room in a panic. Rightly so. Now let me change the question slightly. When someone yells, “Fire!” what happens linguistically?

    According to philosopher J. L. Austin’s speech-act theory in his influential book How to Do Things with Words, three things occur:  locution, Illocution, and perlocution.

    In locution, there is information transfer: a fire is present.

    In illocution, the yelling affected the yeller: perhaps he or she became a hero in his or her own mind.

    In perlocution, something happened to the listeners: they fled in terror. The exclamation of “Fire!” changed the scene dramatically.

    Now, let’s alter our thought experiment. Imagine you learned the person who yelled “Fire!” was mistaken. Would you flee in terror? Would it be right to help others flee? Of course not. There was no fire.

    Why would someone yell “Fire!” when there was no fire? Perhaps the person was confused or nefariously wanted to cause a scene. In such a speech-act, multiple things occur, regardless of the accuracy of the information.

    Now to the matter of pronouns. When you replace “Fire” with someone’s chosen pronouns, more than just information transfer takes place. The speaker is trying to change the hearer. Thus, the communication of one’s preferred pronouns does more than just transfer information. It is an attempt to change the listener’s beliefs, actions, feelings, etc.

    The trans community has made a concerted effort at changing how non-trans people think about them by insisting that an unsung part of speech do much of the work for them. Pronouns are displayed on nametags, social media profiles, class rosters, and other platforms. Failures to comply with someone’s chosen pronouns has led to public confrontations and moral castigations. Thus, many in the non-trans community use chosen pronouns out of fear. That’s perlocution at work.

    Pronoun Impotence

    Others, however, refuse to comply. They believe they are being pressured into saying something untrue, because the trans community has offered no compelling logic for their claims regarding genders. They believe the trans community has only communicated their feelings. In our thought experiment, this would be someone yelling “Fire!” when someone feels like there’s a fire, even though that person might be unsure, unsettled, or even unethical. Generally speaking, this would not be a problem. A free society should not overly care about feelings. However, the trans community has pressed the issue into society-altering actions: bathroom usage, prison assignments, tax money for healthcare, etc.

    Despite these efforts by the trans community, the pronoun endeavor will fail. Why? Two reasons. First, pronouns will never sufficiently perlocute one’s gender because they cannot illocute one’s gender. Even as part of a multi-pronged strategy of hormones, surgery, and the like, pronouns will fall short in affirming one’s personal choice. These only reveal personal choice—the heart of the issue. Personal choice, while a luxury, is impotent against the juggernaut of nature. Choosing to fly off a bridge does not mean gravity will comply, and choosing one’s pronouns does not mean society must comply.

    Second, it won’t work for pragmatic reasons. The accepted pronoun formula (He/Him, She/Her) has already been coopted by comedians, satirists, and even the trans community itself. Billionaire Elon Musk recently joked that his pronouns were “Prosecute/Fauci,” and the trans community has placed signage in New York stating that if you don’t comply, your pronouns will be “Was/Were.” Thus, the sacred pronoun formula produces the modern profanity of laughter and fear.

    New Solutions

    Perlocution is built on tacit trust in a free society. I trust you to yell “Fire!” only when there is one. If you betray that trust, you maintain the freedom to yell, but I am under no obligation to believe you. This goes for pronouns, too. We trust each other to tell the objective truth, not what one’s personal imagination says.

    All this means we need an absolute, which Nature and Nature’s God has given us: biological sex. This binary has functioned extraordinarily well for millennia, and human endeavors to undo it are simply causing greater harm. Ironically, many of the people who religiously follow nature in other areas (evolution, racial justice, climate change, etc.) suddenly find themselves at war with healthy human bodies.

    Furthermore, this male/female binary allows for a broad spectrum of gender expression. Masculine does not necessarily mean machismo, nor does feminine necessarily mean effeminate. Any attempt to generate genders at imaginary whims is as arbitrary as the moral demands to use someone’s chosen pronouns.

    And finding arbitrary solutions would require an upending of Nature that goes beyond gender. It would mean Nature is no longer reliable for anything at all. Such a course leads to nihilism, and its accompanying violence. And we/they are already there.

    Dave Barfield is the Executive Director of a Protestant church in Carmel, Indiana.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/15/2023 – 21:00

  • Experts "Quite Worried" About High Turnover Among Election Workers
    Experts “Quite Worried” About High Turnover Among Election Workers

    Nothing screams ‘secure elections’ like high turnover of local election officials and workers in key states.

    According to The Hill, that’s exactly what’s going on, after a ‘surge of local election officials’ have left their posts in recent years. This could leave polling locations with understaffed and inexperienced teams (who might not know all the nuances behind scanning machines and which tables the extra ballot suitcases are stored under?).

    UCLA election law expert Richard Hasen is “quite worried” about the turnover of election officials and workers nationwide, but says it’s “not surprising” given how the 2020 election played out.

    “Some of the language that’s been used against these officials has been really shocking,” he told The Hill. “And why would you stay in a job that is high-stress to begin with, when you’re not going to be all that well-paid, and then to face this kind of abuse? People have to be really committed to democracy to want to stay in these jobs. And it’s asking a lot.”

    Does that mean people who weren’t committed to democracy were counting the ballots in 2020?

    A Brennan Center survey of local election officials taken in March and April, around the same time many White House candidates were jumping into the race, found that 1 in 5 are expected to be serving in their first presidential election in 2024. 

    The rate of turnover found in the survey is equivalent to “one to two local election officials leaving office every day since the 2020 election.” 

    Nearly a third said they’d personally been “abused, harassed, or threatened” because of their jobs, and nearly three-quarters said they felt threats have gone up in recent years. Nearly a quarter said they personally know at least one election official or worker who’s left the job due to threats, harassment or fear for their safety.  –The Hill

    “Your dedication to public service … can only take you so far, when day after day you have people showing up in your office, or you have phone calls or emails accusing you of not doing everything you can to provide the best election experience, but also secure elections,” said Lisa Bryant, chairwoman of the department of political science at California State University, Fresno, and an expert with MIT’s Election Lab. 

    Perhaps not covering windows in cardboard, blocking election observers, faking burst pipes to delay voting for two hours, and a national judiciary that dismissed the vast majority of election fraud cases over ‘lack of standing’ (i.e. no personal harm was suffered, therefore no jury gets to see your evidence), would go a long way to instilling voter confidence.

    We digress.

    In 2021, the Biden DOJ formed an Election Threats Task Force, citing a “significant increase in the threat of violence” against the ‘election community’ during and after the 2020 election.

    While research hasn’t concluded that threats are driving workers out of the field, the turnover appears to be driven by various sources of burnout, such as interfacing with voters, responding to public records requests, fielding media inquiries and dealing with the public scrutiny.

    “The job of an election official has gotten increasingly difficult over the last few years, and it has not been matched by how they’re being compensated or whether they have the resources to do all of the additional things on their plate,” said Rachel Orey, senior associate director of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Elections Project.

    Maybe if America had a national voter ID, perhaps election workers might feel more comfortable in their jobs?

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/15/2023 – 20:25

  • Victor Davis Hanson's Annotated Guide To American Middle East Madness
    Victor Davis Hanson’s Annotated Guide To American Middle East Madness

    Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via X (@VDHanson),

    Take note that a trapped Hamas in extremis will go to desperate lengths to survive, from trying to prompt lone-wolf killings in Western cities to drawing in Arab nations to share in their jihad to enlisting Western elites and expatriate Muslims both to deny Hamas is a murderous organization and simultaneously to cheer on its macabre killing.

    In this regard, the anti-Jewish nature of Iran and Hamas (read its 1988 Covenant of the Islamic Resistance Movement) should have been obvious, but Westerners suffered from a pathological desire to be deluded.

    But to aid Israel in overcoming the current genocidal agendas of its enemies, we should remember first how we in the past have unfortunately contributed to this nightmare.

    What follows are some brief annotated quotes of American Middle East insanity [with my annotations in brackets].

    Consider our late point man in Iran, and supposed Obama-era expert on Hamas and ISIS, Robert Malley (2008):

    It is “a mistake to only think of them [Hamas] in terms of their terrorist violence dimension.”

    [Was it a mistake to envision the Third Reich also in terms only of its “terrorist violence,” given that it also promoted a green agenda?]

    Malley also included Hamas in his groups of terrorist organizations that “are social and political movements, probably the most rooted movements in their respective societies.” …

    [I agree that Hamas is certainly the “most rooted” of the movements in Gaza and perhaps the West Bank as well. And I concur that it is not a mere aberration in Palestinian society but reflects its collective “rooted” values.]

    “There is so much misinformation about them …

    [Please elaborate: does your “so much information” include things like our ignorance of the fact that Hamas likes to rape Jewish women and desecrate the dead bodies of Jews?]

    “I speak to them and my colleagues speak to them [Hamas], and now we may disagree with them, but they have their own rationality … none of them are crazies,”

    [Can you please provide transcripts of those occasions when you and your colleagues (also then in the Obama administration?) spoke to Hamas? That was also quite big of you, Mr. Malley, to note that you “may” disagree with Hamas. Was it over which of their killing methods is the most effective? I also agree that Hamas certainly has its own “rationality”. Its recent murder of 1200 Jews—the vast majority civilians—during a religious holiday, which followed a year-long carefully-planned blueprint for mass death and counted on the near-criminal naivete of Western diplomats, might rival the “rational” genocidal agendas of, say, the SS. As for “crazies”—do you mean that Hamas does not crazily fantasize about extermination, but carefully and rationally carries it out? If so, I concur.]

    “It has a charity organization, a social branch; it’s not something you can defeat militarily either, and people need to understand that.”

    [Everything you have stated could have equally applied to the murderous Nazi party: it too was a “political movement” (which did not preclude its use of systematic murder). It too had its own “rationality” (kill Jews and destroy elected governments). It too had “a social branch” and “even charities” (all the better to disguise its murderous agendas). And, yes, one can defeat Hamas “militarily,” as the Allies did Nazi ideology. And yes, “people need to understand that” it is quite possible to ensure that Hamas murders no more.]

    John Kerry at Davos in 2016:

    “I think that some of it [the millions released to Iran by the Obama administration] will end up in the hands of the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps—the terrorism specialists of the Iranian armed forces] or other entities, some of which are labeled terrorists.”

    [As for “Are labeled terrorists?”—Mr. Kerry, does your use of “labeled” mean that Iranian terrorists are terrorists in name only?]

    “You know, to some degree, I’m not going to sit here and tell you that every component of that can be prevented.”

    [“To some degree” ? If American money cannot be prevented from being used by Iranians for terrorism, then does “some degree” mean only 50,000 missiles sent to Hezbollah and Hamas rather than 100,000? Or does “some degree’ perhaps mean,someday, 1200 Jews murdered—rather than, say, 120?]

    “There is no way they [the Iranian theocracy] can succeed in what they want to do if they are very busy funding a lot of terrorism.”

    [But, Mr. Kerry, what do you think Iran really “want[s] to do”? Isn’t Iran “busy” building nuclear bombs, not subways and hospitals? And their nuke program is complementary to, rather in place of, Tehran’s vast terrorism budget. Or do you mean that if Iran spends the money on terrorism, they won’t have enough funds to complete building their nuclear-tipped missiles?]

    Antony Blinken in 2023:

    “We have not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack, but there is certainly a long relationship.”

    [At what upcoming date do you think you will need to amend this ridiculous declaration—in the same fashion you just deleted your recent tweet calling for a ceasefire the moment Israel was posed to strike back?]

    State Department spokesman Ned Price (2023):

    “Since April of 2021, we have demonstrated in very real and significant terms our commitment to the humanitarian needs of the Palestinian people. We’ve provided over $890 million for Palestinians, including over $680 in humanitarian assistance for refugees in the region through UNRWA … When Secretary Blinken was in Ramallah, he announced another $50 million in funding for UNRWA.”

    [You certainly did show your commitment to the “needs” of the Palestinian people, which in the case of Gaza resulted in the most sophisticated, reinforced-concrete labyrinth of military tunnels in history, given the plethora of imported building materials purchased with fungible Western dollars to prepare for the mass murder that we just saw in Southern Israel.]

    Ambassador Nicholas Burns:

    “The Trump Administration’s decision to end U.S. assistance to Palestinian refugees is wrong on every level… heartless and unwise.”

    [What was wrong on every level and certainly heartless and unwise was the Biden State Department’s nihilist decision in the very moments of taking power to resume hundreds of millions of fungible dollars to the Palestinians, much of which no doubt ended up in increased spending for  rockets and tunnels. Note that in 2021 the Biden Administration was warned of just that danger by its own state department—and was ignored by diplomats such as yourself: “We assess there is a high risk Hamas could potentially derive indirect, unintentional benefit from U.S. assistance to Gaza.”]

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/15/2023 – 19:50

  • Anti-Gunners About To Meltdown After Elon Musk Says 'Armed Citizens Vital For Democracy's Defense'
    Anti-Gunners About To Meltdown After Elon Musk Says ‘Armed Citizens Vital For Democracy’s Defense’

    Elon Musk most likely upset anti-gunners at Everytown and Giffords this weekend with his post on X, stating, “As tragic as the mass shootings are, armed citizens are essential to the defense of democracy.” 

    Musk’s comment was in response to an X user named “End Wokeness,” who highlighted, “The past 3+ years have been one long infomercial for the 2nd amendment.”

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    End Wokeness listed a series of events, including Covid lockdowns and lawless metro areas, as some of the reasons why law-abiding Americans panic-bought guns in recent years. 

    According to the latest data from the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), which serves as a proxy for gun sales, because there is no national database tracking firearm purchases, gun demand surged during the early days of Covid. It continued erupting as Black Lives Matter protests/riots sparked concern for safety among millions of Americans. Gun demand has since plunged since panic buying was merely a bubble. 

    Musk’s pro-2A comments might spark anger among anti-gunners at Everytown and Giffords. Also, the White House’s ‘Gun Czar‘ Vice President Kamala Harris might not be thrilled with the billionaire. 

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    However, tens of millions of Americans will ignore Democrats’ cries to ban guns as their disastrous policies in metro areas and the southern border have transformed parts of the country into lawless hellholes. 

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    “It’s encouraging to see Elon Musk and many others finally understanding what a gift our Founding Fathers gave us with the Second Amendment. The right to keep and bear arms empowers individuals to protect themselves, their families, and their communities from tyranny,” said Aidan Johnston, Director of Federal Affairs of Gun Owners of America. 

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    Additionally, many people got a wake-up call after Hamas terrorists killed hundreds of unarmed Israelis last week. We penned this note, “Israel Shows Why Americans Have Right To “Weapons Of War” For Self-Defense.”

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    Remember, the government ain’t going to save you when all hell breaks loose. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/15/2023 – 19:15

  • How About Hunter? Justice Department Adds FARA Charge To Menendez Prosecution
    How About Hunter? Justice Department Adds FARA Charge To Menendez Prosecution

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    The Justice Department this week hit Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) with a superseding indictment including a new but all-too-familiar charge: being an unregistered foreign agent under the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA).

     

    I cannot recall another sitting member of Congress being criminally charged as a foreign agent.

    Yet even if this is the first such case, the charge has been freely used by the Justice Department in all but one case: Hunter Biden.

    The indictment accuses Menendez of being a foreign agent on behalf of Egypt.

    Also charged under the law is Menendez’s wife, Nadine, and Egyptian American businessman Wael Hana.

    After they discussed various foreign policy priorities at one dinner, Nadine is quoted as asking her Egyptian counterparts, “What else can the love of my life do for you?”

    The government alleges that the couple agreed to have Menendez “use his power and authority to facilitate such sales and financing to Egypt.” In addition to other benefits, the government alleges that Hana promised to put Nadine on the payroll of his company in a “low-or-no-show job.”

    The indictment further alleges that the senator disclosed “nonpublic information about the United States’s provision of military aid to Egypt” during a dinner with Hana in 2018.

    It also claims that the senator “secretly edited and ghost-wrote” a letter “on behalf of Egypt” trying to convince other senators to release a hold on $300 million in aid to the country.

    The inclusion of the FARA charge against Menendez, his wife and his associate only highlights the absence of any such charge against President Biden’s son Hunter.

    For years, some of us have raised the glaring contradiction in how the Justice Department has approached the Hunter Biden case with its treatment of past defendants like Donald Trump associate Paul Manafort.

    The Justice Department has been quick to indictment Manafort and others on FARA charges, but continues to prevaricate over such a charge for the president’s son.

    Indeed, when Menendez was charged, I wrote about the striking similarities in the cases, including the gifts and benefits showered on both men.

    They remain similar in every way except the charges.

    FARA covers anyone acting as “agent of a foreign principal,” including but not limited to (1) attempting to influence federal officials or the public on domestic or foreign policy or the political or public interests in favor of a foreign country; (2) collecting or disbursing money and or other things of value within the United States; or (3) representing the interests of the foreign principal before U.S. Government officials or agencies.

    It is sweeping.

    So is the definition of what a “foreign principal” encompasses, including “a foreign government, a foreign political party, any person outside the United States (except U.S. citizens who are domiciled within the United States), and any entity organized under the laws of a foreign country or having its principal place of business in a foreign country.”

    It is easy to see why FARA charges have been quickly brought in cases ranging from Manafort to Menendez. It is less clear why such charges remains strikingly absent from the Hunter case.

    In Hunter’s case, he was selling what associate Devon Archer called the “Biden brand” and asking, to paraphrase Nadine Menendez,  “What else can [my dad] do for you?”

    The House committees have confirmed not only millions transferred to Hunter and other Biden family members, but direct contacts made by Hunter with federal officials and agencies in relation to his foreign clients.

    Archer described how Burisma executives told Hunter that they were worried about the anti-corruption investigation of Ukrainian Prosecutor-General Viktor Shokin.

    Archer testified that Hunter immediately “called D.C.” in response to the plea.

    Shokin was later fired at Vice President Joe Biden’s demand.

    In shaking down a Chinese source for more money, Hunter reportedly sent a WhatsApp message that reminded him that “The Bidens are the best at doing exactly what Chairman wants.”

    The message was to Gongwen (“Kevin”) Dong, a CEFC China Energy executive with close ties to the Chinese government, and included a threat that “I am sitting here with my father and we would like to understand why the commitment made has not been fulfilled … I will make certain that between the man sitting next to me and every person he knows and my ability to forever hold a grudge that you will regret not following my direction. I am sitting here waiting for the call with my father.”

    Throughout his open influence-peddling, emails show Hunter was fully aware of the risk of being charged under FARA.

    The problem with FARA is that it would require the Bidens to publicly acknowledge their work as foreign agents and, by extension, their massive influence-peddling operation.

    In one message, Hunter addressed his work for the Chinese CEFC energy company and warned:

    “No matter what it will need to be a US company at some level in order for us to make bids on federal and state funded projects. Also We [sic] don’t want to have to register as foreign agents under the FCPA which is much more expansive than people who should know choose not to know. James has very particular opinions about this so I would ask him about the foreign entity.”

    “James” is his uncle Jim Biden, who has also been regularly accused of corrupt influence-peddling tied to Joe Biden.

    In the message, Hunter gets it.

    The law is indeed “expansive.”

    His uncle clearly gets it.

    The question is why the Justice Department gets it in every case except those with targets named Biden.

    For many, the question is not whether Hunter has acted as an agent of foreign principals but whether the Justice Department is acting as an agent of the principal Biden.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/15/2023 – 18:40

  • Rand Paul On Israel-Palestine: "I'm Not Really For Funding Either Side"
    Rand Paul On Israel-Palestine: “I’m Not Really For Funding Either Side”

    As the death toll soars on both sides of the Israel-Palestine chaos, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul told ZeroHedge that he’s not too keen on involving the U.S. in the Middle Eastern conflict.

    “I’m not really for funding either side,” the senator said.

    “Israel is a rich country. I think they can afford to do most things.”

    If the Speaker situation in the House is resolved next week, Paul is concerned Congress will exploit the nascent war to goad lawmakers into funding Washington’s other proxies.

    “The rumor is they’re going to put Ukraine aid with Israel aid with Taiwan aid, and so God knows how big this thing will be,” he said.

    “It’s like a $50 billion-dollar bill, all outside the spending caps they passed two months ago and makes a mockery that we really have any rules or fiscal restraint over here.”

    “I will oppose it,” Paul said but added that he could support some foreign aid as long as it is paid for through other funding cuts.

    The hands-off approach to foreign policy – one that allows other nations to work out disputes for themselves – is reminiscent of the senator’s father, former Congressman Ron Paul (R-Tex.), who in 2009 said Gaza resembled a “concentration camp” and that U.S. policy exacerbated tensions by establishing a power imbalance in favor of Israel, which removes their incentive to “work out problems”:

    “Israel knows… that we [United States] will do whatever is necessary to bail out Israel.”

    “I think there is an argument for when you have unlimited support for one side,” Rand Paul said, responding to his father’s 2009 interview.

    “It does give people a disincentive to negotiate.”

    Drawing parallels to the war in Ukraine, Sen. Paul highlighted that U.S. support for the country, which is purported to help the Ukrainian people, actually achieves the opposite.

    “Particularly with Ukraine, I think it goes on forever if we keep supplying it,” Paul said.

    “Ultimately if you cared anything about the Ukrainian economy, the people, and the industry over there, you shouldn’t want a war that goes on forever.”

    “That just becomes Afghanistan, so I have advocated for negotiation over there.”

    However, back in Israel, the Senator cast doubt on the likelihood of diplomacy prevailing in this environment.

    “There are times in which it’s easier to talk about negotiation and times in which it’s harder,” he said.

    “Frankly, right now if you talk about negotiating with Hamas, it’s surreal in a sense because they just mowed down 260 people at a music concert.”

    Paul said Hamas is too radical to trust as a good-faith negotiator, pointing to the competing Gazan faction, the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), as the “more reasonable voice” because it recognizes Israel’s right to statehood.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/15/2023 – 18:05

  • Downward Mobility & Life On The Margins
    Downward Mobility & Life On The Margins

    Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

    We can anticipate a sharp reduction in conventional financial security in the next decade as the waste is growth / Landfill Economy runs out of cheap materials to throw away.

    There are many pathways to life on the margins of the economy and society. Let’s consider three:

    1. Our character and upbringing leave us unable to fill the work slots valued by employers. Constitutionally incapable of fitting into the conventional slots, we find our way to (or end up in) the margins. (I raise my hand here.)

    2. Opportunities to lock in the security of steady work that can support a family are scarce in one’s locale, class, caste, etc. Most people are thus relegated to life on the margins.

    3. Circumstances change, and the foundations of our security melt into air. The conventional socio-economic slots that provide security become scarce and we slip-slide from predictable security to the insecurity of the margins. This is downward mobility, a slide accelerated by high-cost lifestyles that require reliably high incomes.

    Those who find themselves incapable of fitting into the conventional slots still have to support themselves (unless they chose their parents wisely and are trust-funders living off family wealth). Despite their unconventionality, the unconventional still dream of conventional success (recognition, admiration, earning lots of money, etc.) arising from their creative endeavors.

    A relative handful of creators manage to mint millions, as many sectors of conventional economy need “something new” to sell to meet the ceaseless demand for novelty to separate the avant garde and the wealthy from the merely aspirational bourgeois. (The acquisition of status is a struggle through shifting sands that is highly profitable to those selling the latest must-have signifier.)

    Creative success follows a brutal power-law long tail distribution. The few at the top reap the vast majority of the royalties, recognition, etc., a small percentage earn a conventional middle-class income and the vast majority earn too little to support themselves.

    To sustain their creative endeavors, they must find some other source of income, preferably part-time (so they have time to create) and doing work that doesn’t demand adherence to (what seem like nonsensical) standards. These more informal sources of paid work include much of the restaurant-food-service industry, light construction, non-profit organizations in the arts and social services, delivery and other 1099 gigs, etc.

    These more fluid sectors offer more opportunities to take control of one’s work and life even as they offer minimal security and pay. There are always tradeoffs, and taking control of one’s work and life is never free.

    The money is rarely enough to live large, and so the creatives live on the margins in seedy housing, scrounging cheap food, riding a bicycle or scooter when weather allows, etc.

    A few manage to acquire a specialized skill that enables them to earn a good living working part-time. These tend to be professional or trade skills that command high hourly wages.

    Others endure work they loathe until it breaks them. After they burn out and accept they’re not cut out for the conventional slots, they drift to the margins. The security offered by conventional slots came at too high a price.

    Those in the second category–the economy has too few opportunities for conventional security and status–must scrape by on the margins, or they must move to a place with more opportunities. This is rarely easy, and despite their best efforts, they may end up on the margins in the new locale.

    But life on the margins can be much better in places with more nooks and crannies in the economy and more affordable shelter and services–more niche enterprises, quirky corners, etc., better public transport that offers affordable mobility, and a wider diversity of like-minded people to connect with. Networks in the margins offer the same advantages of networks in the conventional economy: more connections means more opportunities to find work and collaborate, share one’s creative endeavors, etc.

    We can anticipate a sharp reduction in conventional financial security in the next decade as the waste is growth / Landfill Economy runs out of cheap materials to throw away and the credit needed to buy replacements for what broke/became obsolete and was tossed out. Financialization and globalization have both hit intrinsic barriers to further expansion and so they’re stagnating and reversing.

    Global asset bubbles inflated by financialization and globalization are bursting and cannot be reinflated a fourth time.

    How many jobs can actually be replaced by commoditized (i.e. nearly free) AI is unknown, but even if it’s only 10% of the number projected by AI boosters, it may contribute to a systemic decline in the white-collar slots that were considered “safe and secure.”

    When credit-fueled expansion reverses and asset bubble burst, this will trigger the breakdown of all the systems that only function if there is an endless expansion of credit, consumption and asset valuations. This includes many if not most systems considered integral to the status quo foundations of conventional security.

    As a result, a great many people will experience downward mobility as the foundations of their financial security evaporate or crumble. Those who need less and control more of their life (the essence of self-reliance) will manage life on the margins much better than those who need high incomes to survive and who control very little of their lives.

    Those with robust personal networks, few wants/needs and a wide spectrum of skills will find the margins are sufficient, or they may even thrive in the less structured churn of life on the margins.

    *  *  *

    My new book is now available at a 10% discount ($8.95 ebook, $18 print): Self-Reliance in the 21st Century. Read the first chapter for free (PDF)

    Become a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

    Subscribe to my Substack for free

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/15/2023 – 17:30

  • Earmarks Are Back: House Republicans "Opened The Bar" For The Spendaholics
    Earmarks Are Back: House Republicans “Opened The Bar” For The Spendaholics

    Via OpenTheBooks.com,

    Democrats take every opportunity to spend your tax dollars. The GOP was supposed to know better…

    Unfortunately, the first thing the GOP did after they took control of the U.S. House – before the new Congress was even sworn in – they held a secret vote on earmarks. Last December, 158 GOP members of Congress voted to include earmarks in the year-end omnibus spending bill.

    House Republicans “opened the bar” for the spendaholics.

    Those 158 secret-voting members caused $16,012,272,565 of your tax dollars to be spent on 7,509 earmarks.

    Not only did those 158 members adopt earmarks, the Republicans spent more of your tax dollars than their Democratic earmarking colleagues.

    In the fiscal year 2024 spending bills being debated this fall, the top 63 earmarkers in the U.S. House are Republicans. Eight of the top ten earmarkers in the U.S. Senate are Republicans.

    The U.S. House has a bartender at the spendaholics earmark bar – Rep. Kay Granger (R-Texas). She chairs the Appropriations Committee that approves every one of those earmarks. When she was elected to Congress in 1997, the federal debt was $5.4 trillion.

    Here are a few examples of what these big spending members of Congress – in both parties – think is more important than the exploding federal debt.

    Senator Susan Collins (R-Maine) earmarked $302 million last December and $556 million stuffed inside the 2024 bills.

    Maine’s population is only about 1.3 million and Collins earmarked $2,640 per family of four. When Collins was first elected in 1997, the federal debt was $5.4 trillion.

    If every member of Congress earmarked the same for each citizen in their state as Sen. Collins did, the total amount of earmarks would be $220 billion!

    Last December, Senator Patrick Leahy (D-Vermont) earmarked $30 million to the University of Vermont Honors College. In May, the trustees renamed the college after Leahy. Leahy earmarked $34 million into the international airport at Burlington. In April, the city council renamed the airport after Leahy. Senator Leahy got his name on buildings after earmarking your tax dollars and every dime of it was borrowed against our national debt.

    IF YOU WANT TO KNOW WHETHER YOUR MEMBER OF CONGRESS TOOK EARMARKS, GO TO OUR WEBSITE. WWW.OPENTHEBOOKS.COM

    When President George W. Bush took office, the federal debt was less than $6 trillion—this after 225 years of wars, Depressions, etc. In the last 20 years, the federal debt exploded, up nearly six times to $33 trillion—with no end in sight. In fact, the exploding debt is accelerating.

    THE REBIRTH OF EARMARKS IS A STATEMENT FAR MORE DEVASTATING THAN THE NUMBERS:

    • It is a statement of the culture within Congress.

    • A culture that shows no respect for your tax dollars.

    • No respect for the lurking danger the exploding federal debt poses for our country.

    IF OUR GREAT COUNTRY IS TO SURVIVE, THE CULTURE WILL HAVE TO CHANGE.

    Voters need to hold their elected officials accountable for tax and spend decisions. OpenTheBooks.com gives them the tools to do just that.

    Once the voters understand how much of their tax dollars are being wasted. Once elected officials know that, unlike the past, there is no place to hide financial irresponsibility, the culture within government will begin to change.

    Doing so will not only work to diminish the federal debt, but it will also make our government more effective, more efficient.

    Transparency can transform how we govern ourselves.

    We greatly appreciate all of your help. Transparency has never been more important to the survival of our country as our founders envisioned it, as we have lived it.

    THOMAS W. SMITH

    Chairman

    OpenTheBooks.com

    ADAM ANDRZEJEWSKI

    CEO & Founder

    OpenTheBooks.com

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/15/2023 – 16:55

  • From Cyberspace To Outer Space: Will Fiat Imperialism Push Mining Off-Planet?
    From Cyberspace To Outer Space: Will Fiat Imperialism Push Mining Off-Planet?

    Authored by William Stebbins Jr. via Bitcoin Magazine,

    Tension is building in the mines.

    As the 4th Halving nears and the block reward trims to 3.125 bitcoin per block, miners must not only adapt to a significantly diminished reward, but contend with an increasingly profit-hostile future which might have surprised even the prescient Nakamoto. Indeed, despite widespread hope that fiat states will come to accept peaceful coexistence with bitcoin—I, too, would prefer this outcome—and despite some modest grounds for optimism, history would remind us that kings and emperors do not willingly relinquish power. This is no less true of modern fiat empires, as Lyn Alden’s survey of U.S. fiat interventionism explains.1 History, coupled with ongoing observation of federal actions—foreign and domestic—will be sufficient to calibrate our expectations and help guard us against understandable, yet self-deceptive naivete.

    Accordingly, of all the imminent mining challenges, the most formidable might well be increasing state opposition. If accurate, then conditions may rapidly deteriorate such that off-planet mining might merit serious consideration.

    THE MINERS’ EARTHLY DILEMMA

    As the Halvings inexorably march on, the mining equation keeps changing. For example, in 14 short years mining has evolved from enthusiasts on personal computers to mammoth structures housing thousands of water-cooled Antminer S19s with 5nm chips pulling over 750 MW of electricity.

    Each stage of mining evolution has faced unique challenges. Those anticipated with the 4th Halving this April will include, among others: assured access to cheaper energy, acquisition of more efficient ASIC chips despite a global shortage and shipment delays (exacerbated by U.S.-China-Taiwan animus), the possibility of 3nm chip miners, hashrate increase, hashprice decline, the impact of AI, environmental propaganda attacks, and maddeningly-inscrutable bitcoin value projections made no less easier by the advent of large investment firms in the bitcoin ecosystem—all within the context of a frangible, debt-bloated, de-dollarizing economy.

    Were these the only issues to resolve they’d be sufficiently daunting. However, a more problematic attack vector, as I’ve presented previously,2 is the possibility of the fiat-empowered superpower and its retinue of dollar-subservient vassals hindering free market bitcoin activities.

    Logically, the character and magnitude of state friction would be correlated and proportionate to bitcoin popularity over fiat’s existing sphere of influence and control. If the U.S. monetary system, reaping the ill effects of decades of manipulation and recent global de-dollarization, begins imploding while bitcoin strengthens, federal response will be strong. It will be unlikely to accept contraction of its fiat power and be open to a bitcoin standard. Rather, it will cling to the legacy system from which it so easily accumulated its power and attack the emergence. In so doing, upon realizing that it can’t kill bitcoin, it will first seek to isolate it from its owners in cyberspace.3 A complementary line of attack would then be to neutralize mining. With bitcoin isolated and mining disrupted, in their view, public trust in bitcoin would dissolve; the threat would be neutralized.

    Elements of a mining attack might include two elements: First, a propaganda operation: facts notwithstanding, miners would be slandered as shadowy crypto profiteers irresponsibly increasing CO2 emissions and consuming vast stores of finite energy while driving prices up and diverting energy from socially-beneficial uses. Second, a bureaucratic operation: miners would face a torrent of regulation, from licensing and zoning requirements, environmental restrictions, energy and CO2 quotas, to unreasonable reporting requirements replete with unprecedented KYC intrusions, and punitive taxation. In short, the combined economic, regulatory, and propaganda challenges of such an attack would be near insurmountable.

    In recent years, when a jurisdiction became inhospitable—one is reminded of China’s mining ban still in effect since mid 20214—the conventional playbook offered but two options: attempt to go underground (risky), or relocate to a bitcoin-hospitable jurisdiction (disruptive and costly).

    THE SEARCH FOR NEW SANCTUARY

    Analyzing this potential quandary militarily, we might turn to a concept from the field of counterinsurgent warfare: sanctuary. U.S. Army doctrine recognizes the historic principle that insurgents require areas of sanctuary within which to rest, reconsolidate, and sustain operations:

    Access to external . . . sanctuaries [have] always influenced the effectiveness of insurgencies . . . provid[ing] insurgents places to rebuild and reorganize without fear of counterinsurgent interference. . . Sanctuaries traditionally were physical safe havens, such as base areas, and this form of safe haven still exists . . . [But,] modern target acquisition and intelligence-gathering technology make insurgents in isolation, even in neighboring states, more vulnerable.5

    How might this apply to bitcoin mining? If we posit the State inevitably regarding bitcoin as a monetary insurgent against which it must act to preserve its fiat power, miners will scramble to find inviolable sanctuaries in order to continue operations.

    Currently, miners possess adequate jurisdictions within which to mine. In fact, hope yet flickers as we see a few bitcoin-friendly jurisdictions emerging, such as Oman,6—usually within what the West calls the “third world,” but which might be accurately labelled the neo-colonial, fiat-wrecked world. Additionally, even despite the 2021 mining ban the hashrate in China quickly recovered and exceeded its previous rate.7 This situation, however, can change with astonishing speed. Accommodating jurisdictions today can quickly turn inhospitable tomorrow.

    Viewed differently: Bitcoin already has existential sanctuary— anchored securely in the blockchain, it is existentially permissionless and will continue existing untouchable in cyberspace. Its existence may be said to be inviolate. However, it currently lacks reproductive sanctuary. Mining occurs not in cyberspace, but in geographic space, within nations where market hospitality, regulation, and energy access is unpredictable. Further, mining now largely occurs within extensive, immobile structures which cannot easily “go underground” or quickly relocate.

    But even the above simplification is inaccurate in that bitcoin’s existence is not fully secure in cyberspace without mining. As Andreas Antonopoulos explains,

    Mining secures the bitcoin system and enables the emergence of network-wide consensus without a central authority. . . The purpose of mining is not the creation of new bitcoin. That’s the incentive system. Mining is the mechanism by which bitcoin’s security is decentralized.8

    Thus, mining is necessary to secure the bitcoin ecosystem as well as to forge new coin. As such, if earthly mining sanctuaries start dwindling under persecution of an ailing fiat geriatric, in light of recent commercial space success, miners might do well to look starward, to the ungoverned frontier of space. Space offers the ultimate physical sanctuary, freed from the hostile overreaches of earthbound authorities. It might provide the physical sanctuary elegantly complementing bitcoin’s cyber sanctuary.

    EXTRATERRESTRIAL DREAMS

    Inspired by Elon Musk’s Space-X and Starlink ventures which provide conceptual proof-of-principle for considering the feasibility of off-planet solar mining, what form might such an endeavor take?

    One could visualize mining rigs nestled in modular, expandable mining satellites, minesats, outfitted with wings of ultra-light solar cells and inflatable mirrors placed into high, sun-synchronous orbits (SSO) (~ 600-1000 km above the Earth) perpetually facing the sun for uninterrupted energy harvesting. Incidentally, a number of nations including the U.S, China, Japan, and the UK, also see incredible potential in off-planet solar energy and are already pursuing Space-Based Solar Power (SBSP) for use on Earth.9

    Ever the earthbound miner’s challenge, heat dissipation remains a problem even in frigid space as it cannot be dissipated through conduction or convection. Instead, satellites and other structures usually rely on radiation to offload heat. For example, the International Space Station (ISS) employs a system called the External Active Thermal Control System (EATCS) employing heat radiators positioned in the shade side.10 Minesats would likely use a similar system for cooling.

    Again, borrowing from Musk’s Starlink example, these higher orbit, SSO minesats would either network to a constellation of lower orbit smallsats (small satellites) which provide broadband internet connectivity to the planet, or connect directly to the bitcoin nodal network themselves.

    Operating from the frontier of space, ungoverned by nation states, mining would be freed of licensing and zoning requirements, as well as CO2 and energy propaganda smear campaigns.

    To take our thought experiment further, one could imagine this fleet of solar-powered minesats transported to their orbits from launchpads in forward-thinking, bitcoin-embracing nations, such as El Salvador, and potentially Argentina (should the pro-bitcoin presidential candidate Javier Milei win his upcoming election). In the case of El Salvador, it could provide not only physical sanctuary for politically-attacked firms like Space-X11 but, located over a thousand miles nearer the equator than any U.S. launch location, would provide a geographically superior planetary location enabling spacecraft to achieve escape velocity more efficiently. One could even postulate the migration of bitcoin-specific mining chip research and manufacturing to such a visionary nation, symbiotically co-locating the essential elements and activities of bitcoin.

    Not long ago the idea of a private company outperforming NASA by employing reusable, upright-landing spacecraft and deploying a constellation of satellites providing global internet access would have been considered quixotic and naïve. Equally outlandish: that a nation would declare bitcoin legal tender. Perhaps the idea of extraterrestrial, satellite-based bitcoin mining facilitated by a visionary company that is repeatedly taking NASA to school, and partnering with a bitcoin-embracing nation of the Global South is not such a long shot. Indeed, it might well be the bright orange path.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/15/2023 – 15:45

  • Chicago Giving Migrants $9,000 In Rental Assistance
    Chicago Giving Migrants $9,000 In Rental Assistance

    No wonder Chicago’s financial titans are pissed over an $800 million tax proposal aimed at plugging a $538 million deficit projected for 2024…

    From left, Ald. Byron Sigcho-Lopez (25th) and Mayor Brandon Johnson meet migrants staying at the Near West Police District station in May. | Anthony Vazquez/Sun-Times
    Anthony Vazquez/Sun-Times

    According to Fox32, Chicago is providing up to $9,000 in rental assistance over a six-month period, which includes assistance with moving in, as well as a ‘starter kit’ to furnish their new digs.

    “That rent lasts for six months and ideally people would have started their legal process, secured legal work authorization and be able to sustain that apartment. And so the cost, or I guess the payment toward the landlord is based on market rate, it’s based on the configuration of the parament – how many rooms, where it’s located – all those things. And so it varies from place to place,” said Cristina Pacione-Zayas, the city’s first deputy chief of staff.

    This week, 41 buses have arrived in Chicago, bringing the total number of migrants in shelters to 11,000, with 4,000 still sleeping on police station floors and staying at airports.

    Notably, 30% of migrants in Chicago are children, with the majority of them attending Chicago Public Schools. -Fox32

    According to the report, Chicago has allocated $4 million to assist migrants with obtaining temporary housing, while the state of Illinois has contributed an additional $38 million.

    In September, the city moved asylum seekers from police stations to “winterized base camps” (tents) that could potentially house up to 1,000 people.

    Recently arrived migrants sit on cots and the floor of a makeshift shelter operated by the city at O’Hare International Airport. Photo: Armando L. Sanchez/Chicago Tribune/Tribune News Service via Getty Images

    There are currently 30-40 case management workers from Catholic Charities actively working to secure temporary housing for migrants, with plans to hire more.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/15/2023 – 15:10

  • Court Rules No Evidence Georgia's Voting Law Discriminates Against Black Voters
    Court Rules No Evidence Georgia’s Voting Law Discriminates Against Black Voters

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A federal judge in Georgia has declined to block several provisions of a sweeping election law while multiple legal challenges play out.

    An election worker scans mail-in ballots in a file photo. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

    Several left-wing advocacy and civil rights groups, as well as the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ, sued in 2021 after Republican state lawmakers passed the measure amid claims about election fraud in the state in 2020. Those lawsuits claim that black voters are now denied equal access to voting, which violates the Voting Rights Act.

    “Plaintiffs have not shown, at least at this stage of the proceedings, that any of the provisions have a disparate impact on black voters,” U.S. District Judge J.P. Boulee wrote in an order issued Wednesday. The jurist also wrote that the court “cannot find that Plaintiffs have presented enough evidence to show that the Legislature foresaw or knew that S.B. 202 would have a disparate impact on minority voters.”

    The Biden administration and the Democrat-affiliated groups also “failed to show a substantial likelihood of success on the merits as to their claims that the provisions” of the election law “intentionally discriminate against black voters in violation of the Fourteenth Amendment, Fifteenth Amendment and Section 2 of the [Voting Rights Act],” the judge ruled.

    The plaintiffs, in their lawsuit, sought to prevent the law’s enforcement pertaining to drop boxes as well as the distribution of food, water, and other gifts to voters who are waiting at polling locations. The law also set a deadline to submit applications for absentee ballots, among other measures.

    Another section of the law says that provisional ballots cast at the wrong precinct cannot be counted if they are case prior to 5 p.m. on Election Day. The final provision requires that a voter provide their driver’s license or state identification card number when requesting an absentee ballot.

    In response, the plaintiffs said they were disappointed in Judge Boulee’s decision, with reports suggesting that the challenged provisions will remain intact during the 2024 election cycle. Georgia was a key battleground state during the 2020 election and during the January 2021 runoff election for two U.S. Senate seats.

    “The fight for voting rights in the South has never been easy, especially for Black voters. We will never stop advocating on behalf of our clients and voters across the state. We look forward to presenting our case at trial,” Rahul Garabadu, an attorney with the American Civil Liberties Union of Georgia, said in a statement.

    And Alaizah Koorji, assistant counsel at the Legal Defense Fund, one of the plaintiffs, claimed that the law will continue to present barriers to black voters, alleging they are “designed to dilute Black political power.”

    The judge, however, said that the differences that were shown by the civil rights groups’ lawyers in the election case were not “statistically significant enough to demonstrate that black voters wait in longer lines at a meaningfully higher rate than white voters.”

    In rejecting the claims that absentee ballots violate the Voting Rights Act, the judge wrote, “Without more, generalized evidence regarding the use of absentee voting is not sufficient to show that this particular provision, pertaining to one aspect of absentee voting, is discriminatory.”

    He added that the plaintiffs also didn’t provide evidence suggesting that registered black voters could not obtain a state-issued identification card or driver’s license at a higher rate than white voters.

    Some Democratic lawmakers, the judge wrote, were also in favor of several of the law’s provisions that required more election workers and equipment to be made available if a line occurs at a polling location on Election day. During the 2020 election, there were reports of lengthy lines at a number of precincts across Georgia, pushing the time back beyond the closing time to vote in-person.

    On Thursday, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger hailed the judge’s ruling in a news release, saying that “the court confirmed what we’ve been saying all along.” The release added that the law “strengthens election integrity while increasing the opportunity for Georgia voters to cast a ballot.”

    The Republican-controlled Legislature in Georgia passed the law in March 2021 before it was signed by Gov. Brian Kemp, a Republican, weeks later.

    The bill and law drew a wave of corporate backlash, which included Georgia-based firms like Coca-Cola and Delta Air Lines. For example, Delta’s CEO, Ed Bastian, claimed at the time that the law is “unacceptable” and “based on a lie,” drawing backlash from Mr. Kemp and other Republicans.

    “Mr. Bastian should compare voting laws in Georgia—which include no-excuse absentee balloting, online voter registration, 17 days of early voting with an additional two optional Sundays, and automatic voter registration when obtaining a driver’s license—with other states Delta Airlines operates in,” Mr. Kemp told CNBC more than two years ago.

    The Associated Press contributed to this report.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/15/2023 – 14:35

  • New Zealand Ousts Leftist Lockdown Loons After Conservative Wins Election
    New Zealand Ousts Leftist Lockdown Loons After Conservative Wins Election

    Voters in New Zealand on Saturday ousted the party once led by Jacinda Ardern, and have instead elected the country’s most conservative government in decades.

    New Zealand’s new Prime Minister elect Christopher Luxon

    Turns out forcing your citizens to take vaccines, decreeing state news the only ‘truth,’ and locking up peaceful protesters opposed pandemic authoritarianism did not go over well.

    On Saturday, conservative Christopher Luxon was elected New Zealand’s next prime minister. While the exact makeup of Luxon’s government has yet to be determined, his center-right National party looks set to form a coalition government with one or two minor parties.

    The National Party will likely combine its indicated 50 seats with the ACT party (11 seats), to give them 61 seats, providing a slim majority in the 121-seat New Zealand parliament. As Goldman notes, the results are largely in line with pre-election polling, with the incumbent Labour party on track to lose their outright majority in parliament for the first time since 2017.

    “You have reached for hope and you have voted for change,” Luxon told supporters to rapturous applause at an event in Auckland, alongside his wife Amanda and their children.

    Outgoing Prime Mininster Chris Hipkins, who’s held the job for nine months following the abrupt resignation of Jacinda Ardern, told supporters late Saturday that he’d called Luxon to concede.

    Outgoing New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins

    Hipkins said that while the result wasn’t his desired outcome, “I want you to be proud of what we achieved over the last six years,” he told supporters in Wellington.

    On the economic front, Goldman notes that Luxon’s party has vowed to reduce effective tax rates on incomes and investment parties. And while National has pledged to offset the fiscal impact of tax cuts with savings elsewhere, Goldman sees the risks as “skewed to more stimulatory fiscal policy in 2024” vs New Zealand’s current fiscal projections.

    The proposed tax cuts and new spending amounts to around 0.8% of annual GDP, which would boost household disposable income by around 1.5% and also provide a tailwind to house prices in 2024. While National has pledged to offset the new spending and lower taxes with a reduction in spending and new taxes, overall we view the risks as skewed to more fiscal stimulus (compared to the current fiscal projections) and additional rate hikes from the RBNZ (GSe: base case on hold at 5.5%).

    Luxon has also addressed crime in New Zealand, telling supporters that it’s “out of control,” adding “And we are going to restore law and order, and we are going to restore personal responsibility.”

    He’s also vowed to fix the capital’s traffic woes with a new tunnel project.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/15/2023 – 14:00

  • Climate Activists Seek To Save The Planet By Cutting-Down & Burying Trees
    Climate Activists Seek To Save The Planet By Cutting-Down & Burying Trees

    Authored by Autumn Spredemann via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Cutting down trees to manage wildfires isn’t a new thing, although it remains a hotly debated practice.

    (George Frey/AFP Via Getty Images)

    Tree thinning is a disputed procedure that has drawn as much criticism within the environmental community as support. Many scientists, researchers, and conservationists are against it, saying tree thinning can even worsen wildfires.

    However, America’s woodlands have been culled for more than two decades for fire management. Now, climate activists are jumping into the conversation with a “carbon capture” argument for tree thinning.

    Activists such as Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates have thrown their weight, and checkbooks, behind the practice of cutting down trees and burying them to address fears over carbon emissions.

    Through his foundation Breakthrough Energy Ventures, Mr. Gates is a part of the $6.6 million seed investor pool backing Kodama Systems in its proposal to remove trees in California’s fire-challenged woodlands and bury them in Nevada to sequester carbon dioxide (CO2).

    “We must dramatically accelerate forest thinning treatments,” the Boston-based firm says on its website. Kodama calls itself a “technology-driven forest restoration service.”

    Mr. Gates is well known for his headline-grabbing methods of addressing his climate concerns—from buying up vast swaths of U.S. farmland to backing wild-card experiments such as solar geoengineering and, most recently, criticizing tree planting as a viable means of reducing CO2.

    During The New York Times Climate Forward Summit in September, the billionaire didn’t hesitate to share his thoughts on the role of planting trees to mitigate climate concerns, calling it “complete nonsense.”

    In an interview with NY Times reporter David Gelles, Mr. Gates responded dismissively to the idea that planting more trees can reverse adverse climate effects.

    “That’s complete nonsense … I mean, are we the science people, or are we the idiots?” Mr. Gates asked rhetorically.

    Bill Gates is a part of the $6.6 million seed investor pool backing Kodama Systems in its proposal to remove trees in California’s fire-challenged woodlands. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

    Critics are quick to point out holes in the logic surrounding the claimed benefits of culling trees and burying them.

    “This is a spectacularly bad and counter-productive idea,” Chad Hanson, a research ecologist and co-founder of the John Muir Project, told The Epoch Times.

    He says existing trees and forests are “by far, our best and most effective means” to reduce any “excess of carbon in our atmosphere.”

    Additionally, selective culling poses a risk to old-growth trees, which research indicates capture vastly more atmospheric carbon than their younger counterparts.

    Living trees store a massive amount of atmospheric carbon. One estimate puts the CO2 storage value of U.S. forests and grasslands at 866 million metric tons per year. For perspective, that equates to the annual emissions from 50 million gasoline- or diesel-fueled vehicles.

    The U.S. Forest Service reports that the nation’s forests and forest products offset nearly 16 percent of domestic carbon dioxide emissions. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)

    Some research does support the theory that burying debris from cut trees can work as a form of carbon capture. One 2019 study showed that storing wood biomass can remove billions of tons of carbon annually.

    “Trees continue to sequester and store more and more carbon as they get older, and this is true no matter how old they get,” Mr. Hanson said in countering that point. “Cutting existing trees and burying them eliminates their ability to draw down and reduce atmospheric carbon.”

    No in-depth analysis exists on the asserted benefits or secondary environmental effects of tree thinning and debris storage.

    “Research related to sustainability in the field of social and environmental impacts of carbon capture has not been done enough and this field of studies is still immature,” a study published in Science Direct states.

    On its website, Kodama Systems notes that carbon accounting frameworks are being developed, but didn’t offer further details.

    Representatives of Kodama didn’t respond to a request by The Epoch Times for comment.

    A man examines a stack of pine logs near Deer Lodge, Mont., on Sept. 12, 2019. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

    The argument to leave mature forests and dense canopy intact—strictly for CO2 sequestration—has support from top scientific researchers.

    William Moomaw, founding director of the Center for International Environment and Resource Policy at Tufts University’s Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, is among what he calls the “proforestation” school of thought on storing atmospheric carbon.

    He’s an avid supporter of the planting of trees and advocates for leaving older and middle-aged forests alone, because of their superior carbon storage abilities.

    “The most effective thing that we can do is to allow trees that are already planted, that are already growing, to continue growing to reach their full ecological potential, to store carbon, and develop a forest that has its full complement of environmental services,” Mr. Moomaw said during a 2019 interview with Yale Environment 360.

    “Letting existing natural forests grow is essential to any climate goal we have.”

    Culling to Mitigate Fire Risks

    Tree thinning also has a debatable track record in wildfire management, but has a growing bench of supporters in the public and private sectors.

    The U.S. Forest Service has made selective tree culling a critical part of its 10-year plan for wildfire management.

    Firefighters cut down a burning tree during the Dixie Fire near Westwood, Calif., on Aug. 12, 2021. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

    Officials hope to use the method on millions of forested acres by 2030.

    “We estimate that a total of 50 million acres of forests in the U.S. need hazardous fuels and forest health treatments to address the growing wildfire crisis,” U.S. Forest Service spokesman John Winn told The Epoch Times.

    He said 20 million of the acres are on national forests and grasslands, and 30 million acres are on other lands.

    “Nearly a quarter of the contiguous U.S. remains at moderate to very high risk of severe wildfires,” Mr. Winn said.

    He said some studies support tree thinning as a tool in forest fire mitigation.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/15/2023 – 13:25

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Oct 15

Today’s News 15th October 2023

  • Escobar: The Geopolitics Of Al-Aqsa Flood
    Escobar: The Geopolitics Of Al-Aqsa Flood

    Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Cradle,

    Global focus just shifted from Ukraine to Palestine. This new arena of confrontation will ignite further competition between the Atlanticist and Eurasian blocs. These fights are increasingly zero-sum ones; as in Ukraine, only one pole can emerge strengthened and victorious.

    Hamas’ Operation Al-Aqsa Flood was meticulously planned. The launch date was conditioned by two triggering factors. 

    • First was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flaunting his ‘New Middle East’ map at the UN General Assembly in September, in which he completely erased Palestine and made a mockery of every single UN resolution on the subject. 

    • Second are the serial provocations at the holy Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, including the straw that broke the camel’s back: two days before Al-Aqsa Flood, on 5 October, at least 800 Israeli settlers launched an assault around the mosque, beating pilgrims, destroying Palestinian shops, all under the observation of Israeli security forces.

    Everyone with a functioning brain knows Al-Aqsa is a definitive red line, not just for Palestinians, but for the entire Arab and Muslim worlds. 

    It gets worse. The Israelis have now invoked the rhetoric of a “Pearl Harbor.” This is as threatening as it gets. The original Pearl Harbor was the American excuse to enter a world war and nuke Japan, and this “Pearl Harbor” may be Tel Aviv’s justification to launch a Gaza genocide.  

    Sections of the west applauding the upcoming ethnic cleansing – including Zionists posing as “analysts” saying out loud that the “population transfers” that began in 1948 “must be completed” – believe that with massive weaponry and massive media coverage, they can turn things around in short shrift, annihilate the Palestinian resistance, and leave Hamas allies like Hezbollah and Iran weakened. 

    Their Ukraine Project has sputtered, leaving not just egg on powerful faces, but entire European economies in ruin.

    Yet as one door closes, another one opens: Jump from ally Ukraine to ally Israel, and hone your sights on adversary Iran instead of adversary Russia.  

    There are other good reasons to go all guns blazing. 

    A peaceful West Asia means Syria reconstruction – in which China is now officially involved; active redevelopment for Iraq and Lebanon; Iran and Saudi Arabia as part of BRICS 11; the Russia-China strategic partnership fully respected and interacting with all regional players, including key US allies in the Persian Gulf.

    Incompetence. Willful strategy. Or both.

    That brings us to the cost of launching this new “war on terror.” The propaganda is in full swing. For Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, Hamas is ISIS. For Volodymyr Zelensky in Kiev, Hamas is Russia. Over one October weekend, the war in Ukraine was completely forgotten by western mainstream media. Brandenburg Gate, the Eiffel tower, the Brazilian Senate are all Israeli now. 

    Egyptian intel claims it warned Tel Aviv about an imminent attack from Hamas. The Israelis chose to ignore it, as they did the Hamas training drills they observed in the weeks prior, smug in their superior knowledge that Palestinians would never have the audacity to launch a liberation operation.

    Whatever happens next, Al-Aqsa Flood has already, irretrievably, shattered the hefty pop mythology around the invincibility of Tsahal, Mossad, Shin Bet, Merkava tank, Iron Dome, and the Israel Defense Forces. 

    Even as it ditched electronic communications, Hamas profited from the glaring collapse of Israel’s multi-billion-dollar electronic systems monitoring the most surveilled border on the planet. 

    Cheap Palestinian drones hit multiple sensor towers, facilitated the advance of a paragliding infantry, and cleared the way for T-shirted, AK-47-wielding assault teams to inflict breaks in the wall and cross a border that even stray cats dared not. 

    Israel, inevitably, turned to battering the Gaza Strip, an encircled cage of 365 square kilometers packed with 2.3 million people. The indiscriminate bombing of refugee camps, schools, civilian apartment blocks, mosques, and slums has begun. Palestinians have no navy, no air force, no artillery units, no armored fighting vehicles, and no professional army. They have little to no high-tech surveillance access, while Israel can call up NATO data if they want it. 

    Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant proclaimed “a complete siege on the Gaza Strip. There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everything is closed. We are fighting human animals and we will act accordingly.”

    The Israelis can merrily engage in collective punishment because, with three guaranteed UNSC vetoes in their back pocket, they know they can get away with it. 

    It doesn’t matter that Haaretz, Israel’s most respected newspaper, straight out concedes that “actually the Israeli government is solely responsible for what happened (Al-Aqsa Flood) for denying the rights of Palestinians.”

    The Israelis are nothing if not consistent. Back in 2007, then-Israeli Defense Intelligence Chief Amos Yadlin said, “Israel would be happy if Hamas took over Gaza because IDF could then deal with Gaza as a hostile state.” 

    Ukraine funnels weapons to Palestinians

    Only one year ago, the sweaty sweatshirt comedian in Kiev was talking about turning Ukraine into a “big Israel,” and was duly applauded by a bunch of Atlantic Council bots. 

    Well, it turned out quite differently. As an old-school Deep State source just informed me:

    “Ukraine-earmarked weapons are ending up in the hands of the Palestinians. The question is which country is paying for it. Iran just made a deal with the US for six billion dollars and it is unlikely Iran would jeopardize that. I have a source who gave me the name of the country but I cannot reveal it. The fact is that Ukrainian weapons are going to the Gaza Strip and they are being paid for but not by Iran.” 

    After its stunning raid last weekend, a savvy Hamas has already secured more negotiating leverage than Palestinians have wielded in decades. Significantly, while peace talks are supported by China, Russia, Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt – Tel Aviv refuses. Netanyahu is obsessed with razing Gaza to the ground, but if that happens, a wider regional war is nearly inevitable. 

    Lebanon’s Hezbollah – a staunch Resistance Axis ally of the Palestinian resistance – would rather not be dragged into a war that can be devastating on its side of the border, but that could change if Israel perpetrates a de facto Gaza genocide. 

    Hezbollah holds at least 100,000 ballistic missiles and rockets, from Katyusha (range: 40 km) to Fajr-5 (75 km), Khaibar-1 (100 km), Zelzal 2 (210 km), Fateh-110 (300 km), and Scud B-C (500 km). Tel Aviv knows what that means, and shudders at the frequent warnings by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah that its next war with Israel will be conducted inside that country.   

    Which brings us to Iran. 

    Geopolitical plausible deniability

    The key immediate consequence of Al-Aqsa Flood is that the Washington neocon wet dream of “normalization” between Israel and the Arab world will simply vanish if this turns into a Long War.

    Large swathes of the Arab world in fact are already normalizing their ties with Tehran – and not only inside the newly expanded BRICS 11. 

    In the drive towards a multipolar world, represented by BRICS 11, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), among other groundbreaking Eurasian and Global South institutions, there’s simply no place for an ethnocentric Apartheid state fond of collective punishment.    

    Just this year, Israel found itself disinvited from the African Union summit. An Israeli delegation showed up anyway, and was unceremoniously ejected from the big hall, a visual that went viral. At the UN plenary sessions last month, a lone Israeli diplomat sought to disrupt Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi’s speech. No western ally stood by his side, and he too, was ejected from the premises. 

    As Chinese President Xi Jinping diplomatically put it in December 2022, Beijing “firmly supports the establishment of an independent state of Palestine that enjoys full sovereignty based on 1967 borders and with East Jerusalem as its capital. China supports Palestine in becoming a full member of the United Nations.”

    Tehran’s strategy is way more ambitious – offering strategic advice to West Asian resistance movements from the Levant to the Persian Gulf: Hezbollah, Ansarallah, Hashd al-Shaabi, Kataib Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and countless others. It’s as if they are all part of a new Grand Chessboard de facto supervised by Grandmaster Iran. 

    The pieces in the chessboard were carefully positioned by none other than the late Quds Force Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps General Qassem Soleimani, a once-in-a-lifetime military genius. He was instrumental in creating the foundations for the cumulative successes of Iranian allies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Palestine, as well as creating the conditions for a complex operation such as Al-Aqsa Flood. 

    Elsewhere in the region, the Atlanticist drive of opening strategic corridors across the Five Seas – the Caspian, the Black Sea, the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf, and the Eastern Mediterranean – is floundering badly. 

    Russia and Iran are already smashing US designs in the Caspian – via the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) – and the Black Sea, which is on the way to becoming a Russian lake. Tehran is paying very close attention to Moscow’s strategy in Ukraine, even as it refines its own strategy on how to debilitate the Hegemon without direct involvement: call it geopolitical plausible deniability.   

    Bye bye EU-Israel-Saudi-India corridor

    The Russia-China-Iran alliance has been demonized as the new “axis of evil” by western neocons. That infantile rage betrays cosmic impotence. These are Real Sovereigns that can’t be messed with, and if they are, the price to pay is unthinkable. 

    A key example: if Iran under attack by a US-Israeli axis decided to block the Strait of Hormuz, the global energy crisis would skyrocket, and the collapse of the western economy under the weight of quadrillions of derivatives would be inevitable. 

    What this means, in the immediate future, is that he American Dream of interfering across the Five Seas does not even qualify as a mirage. Al-Aqsa Flood has also just buried the recently-announced and much-ballyhooed EU-Israel-Saudi Arabia-India transportation corridor. 

    China is keenly aware of all this incandescence taking place only a week before its 3rd Belt and Road Forum in Beijing. At stake are the BRI connectivity corridors that matter – across the Heartland, across Russia, plus the Maritime Silk Road and the Arctic Silk Road. 

    Then there’s the INSTC linking Russia, Iran and India – and by ancillary extension, the Gulf monarchies. 

    The geopolitical repercussions of Al-Aqsa Flood will speed up Russia, China and Iran’s interconnected geoeconomic and logistical connections, bypassing the Hegemon and its Empire of Bases. Increased trade and non-stop cargo movement are all about (good) business. On equal terms, with mutual respect – not exactly the War Party’s scenario for a destabilized West Asia.  

    Oh, the things that a slow-moving paragliding infantry overflying a wall can accelerate.  

    *  *  *

    The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle or ZeroHedge.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/14/2023 – 23:20

  • Visualizing All Attempted & Successful Moon Landings
    Visualizing All Attempted & Successful Moon Landings

    Since before Ancient Greece and the first Chinese Dynasties, people have sought to understand and learn more about the moon.

    Curiosity and centuries of study culminated in the first moon landing in the 1960s. But there have been many other attempted moon landings, both before and after.

    This chart by Visual Capitalists’ Preyash Shah illustrates all the moon landings using NASA data since 1966 when Soviet lander Luna 9 touched down.

    Race to the Moon

    The 1960s and 1970s marked an era of intense competition between the U.S. and the Soviet Union as they raced to conquer the moon.

    During the Cold War, space became a priority as each side sought to prove the superiority of its technology, its military firepower, and its political-economic system.

    In 1961, President John F. Kennedy set a national goal to have a crewed lunar landing and return to Earth.

    After several failed attempts from both sides, on July 20, 1969, the Apollo 11 mission was successful and astronauts Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin became the first humans to set foot on the moon.

    Mission Launch Date Operator Country Mission Type Outcome
    Ranger 3 26-Jan-62 NASA 🇺🇸 U.S. Lander Spacecraft failure
    Ranger 4 23-Apr-62 NASA 🇺🇸 U.S. Lander Spacecraft failure
    Ranger 5 18-Oct-62 NASA 🇺🇸 U.S. Lander Spacecraft failure
    Luna E-6 No.2 4-Jan-63 OKB-1 ☭ USSR Lander Launch failure
    Luna E-6 No.3 3-Feb-63 OKB-1 ☭ USSR Lander Launch failure
    Luna 4 2-Apr-63 OKB-1 ☭ USSR Lander Spacecraft failure
    Luna E-6 No.6 21-Mar-64 OKB-1 ☭ USSR Lander Launch failure
    Luna E-6 No.5 20-Apr-64 OKB-1 ☭ USSR Lander Launch failure
    Kosmos 60 12-Mar-65 Lavochkin ☭ USSR Lander Launch failure
    Luna E-6 No.8 10-Apr-65 Lavochkin ☭ USSR Lander Spacecraft failure
    Luna 5 9-May-65 Lavochkin ☭ USSR Lander Spacecraft failure
    Luna 6 8-Jun-65 Lavochkin ☭ USSR Lander Spacecraft failure
    Luna 7 4-Oct-65 Lavochkin ☭ USSR Lander Spacecraft failure
    Luna 8 3-Dec-65 Lavochkin ☭ USSR Lander Spacecraft failure
    Luna 9 31-Jan-66 Lavochkin ☭ USSR Lander Successful
    Surveyor 1 30-May-66 NASA 🇺🇸 U.S. Lander Successful
    Surveyor 2 20-Sep-66 NASA 🇺🇸 U.S. Lander Spacecraft failure
    Luna 13 21-Dec-66 Lavochkin ☭ USSR Lander Successful
    Surveyor 3 17-Apr-67 NASA 🇺🇸 U.S. Lander Successful
    Surveyor 4 14-Jul-67 NASA 🇺🇸 U.S. Lander Spacecraft failure
    Surveyor 5 8-Sep-67 NASA 🇺🇸 U.S. Lander Successful
    Surveyor 6 7-Nov-67 NASA 🇺🇸 U.S. Lander Successful
    Surveyor 7 7-Jan-68 NASA 🇺🇸 U.S. Lander Successful
    Luna E-8 No.201 19-Feb-69 Lavochkin ☭ USSR Lander Launch failure
    Luna E-8-5 No.402 14-Jun-69 Lavochkin ☭ USSR Lander Launch failure
    Luna 15 13-Jul-69 Lavochkin ☭ USSR Lander Spacecraft failure
    Apollo 11 16-Jul-69 NASA 🇺🇸 U.S. Lander/
    Launch Vehicle    		 Successful
    Kosmos 300 23-Sep-69 Lavochkin ☭ USSR Lander Launch failure
    Kosmos 305 22-Oct-69 Lavochkin ☭ USSR Lander Launch failure
    Apollo 12 14-Nov-69 NASA 🇺🇸 U.S. Lander/
    Launch Vehicle    		 Successful
    Luna E-8-5 No.405 6-Feb-70 Lavochkin ☭ USSR Lander Launch failure
    Apollo 13 11-Apr-70 NASA 🇺🇸 U.S. Lander/
    Launch Vehicle    		 Partial failure
    Luna 16 12-Sep-70 Lavochkin ☭ USSR Lander Successful
    Luna 17 10-Nov-70 Lavochkin ☭ USSR Lander Successful
    Apollo 14 31-Jan-71 NASA 🇺🇸 U.S. Lander/
    Launch Vehicle    		 Successful
    Apollo 15 26-Jul-71 NASA 🇺🇸 U.S. Lander/
    Launch Vehicle    		 Successful
    Luna 18 2-Sep-71 Lavochkin ☭ USSR Lander Spacecraft failure
    Luna 20 14-Feb-72 Lavochkin ☭ USSR Lander Successful
    Apollo 16 16-Apr-72 NASA 🇺🇸 U.S. Lander/
    Launch Vehicle    		 Successful
    Apollo 17 7-Dec-72 NASA 🇺🇸 U.S. Lander/
    Launch Vehicle    		 Successful
    Luna 21 8-Jan-73 Lavochkin ☭ USSR Lander Successful
    Luna 23 16-Oct-75 Lavochkin ☭ USSR Lander Partial failure
    Luna E-8-5M No.412 16-Oct-75 Lavochkin ☭ USSR Lander Launch failure
    Luna 24 9-Aug-76 Lavochkin ☭ USSR Lander Successful
    Chang’e 3 1-Dec-13 CNSA 🇨🇳 China Lander Operational
    Chang’e 4 7-Dec-18 CNSA 🇨🇳 China Lander Operational
    Beresheet 22-Feb-19 SpaceIL 🇮🇱 Israel Lander Spacecraft failure
    Chandrayaan-2 22-Jul-19 ISRO 🇮🇳 India Lander Spacecraft Failure
    Chang’e 5 23-Nov-20 CNSA 🇨🇳 China Lander Successful
    Hakuto-R Mission 1 11-Dec-22 ispace 🇯🇵 Japan Lander Spacecraft failure
    Chandrayaan-3 14-Jul-23 ISRO 🇮🇳 India Lander Successful
    Luna 25 10-Aug-23 Roscosmos 🇷🇺 Russia Lander Spacecraft failure

    After the Apollo missions, the fervor of lunar exploration waned. From 1976 to 2013, no moon landing attempts occurred due to budget constraints, shifting priorities, and advances in robotic missions.

    However, a new chapter in space exploration has unfolded in recent years, with emerging players entering the cosmic arena. With its Chang’e missions, China has made significant strides, landing rovers on the moon and exploring the far side of the moon.

    India, too, has asserted its presence with the Chandrayaan missions. In 2023, the country became the 4th nation to reach the moon as an unmanned spacecraft landed near the lunar south pole, advancing the country’s space ambitions to learn more about the lunar ice, potentially one of the moon’s most valuable resources.

    Exploring Lunar Water

    Since the 1960s, even before the historic Apollo landing, scientists had theorized the potential existence of water on the moon.

    In 2008, Brown University researchers employed advanced technology to reexamine lunar samples, discovering hydrogen within beads of volcanic glass. And in 2009, a NASA instrument aboard the India’s Chandrayaan-1 probe confirmed the presence of water on the moon’s surface.

    Water is deemed crucial for future space exploration. Beyond serving as a potential source of drinking water for future moon explorations, ice deposits could play a pivotal role in cooling equipment. Lunar ice could also be broken down to produce hydrogen for fuel and oxygen for breathing, essential for supporting extended space missions.

    With a reinvigorated interest in exploring the moon, manned moon landings are on the horizon once again. In April 2023, NASA conducted tests for the launch of Artemis I, the first American spacecraft to aim for the moon since 1972. The agency aims to send astronauts to the moon around 2025 and build a base camp on the lunar surface.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/14/2023 – 22:45

  • "We Can't Force The Human Body To Accept Foreign Genetic Code'' Dr. McCullough On mRNA Technology
    “We Can’t Force The Human Body To Accept Foreign Genetic Code” Dr. McCullough On mRNA Technology

    Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Cardiologist Dr. Peter McCullough warned that messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines inject “foreign genetic code” into human beings, which the body fails to break down or expel for a prolonged period of time.

    Colorized scanning electron micrograph of a cell (purple) infected with a variant strain of SARS-CoV-2 virus particles (pink), isolated from a patient sample. (NIAID via The Epoch Times)

    Research on mRNA “has been going on for decades,” Dr. McCullough said during an Oct. 5 interview. The 2023 Nobel Prize for medicine was awarded to two scientists for making “messenger RNA long-lasting in the human body,” he said. “I mean, it has been tested in multiple applications … It’s an absolute bust. It was just the worst idea ever to install the genetic code for a lethal protein without being able to shut it off. It wasn’t the fact that it was rushed; it’s just ill-conceived from the very beginning.”

    “We can’t force the human body to accept foreign genetic code and produce a foreign protein … Messenger RNA for vaccines is a completely failed concept. It’s a dangerous concept, and the U.S. government wasn’t honest. They should have been honest. Trump should have come out and said, ‘Listen, it’s on our website; our military’s been working on this since 2012.’”

    During a testimony at the European Parliament last month, Dr. McCullough said, “There’s not a single study showing that the messenger RNA is broken down” in the human body once it is injected.

    “There’s not a study showing it leaves the body.” Since the vaccines are “made synthetically, they cannot be broken down.”

    He added that the lethal protein from the [COVID-19] vaccines found in the human body after vaccination was found to be circulating “at least for six months, if not longer.”

    In the case of seasonal jabs, that is, taking an injection or booster at the end of six months as recommended by the authorities, “there’s another installation in more circulating potentially lethal protein.”

    Scientist Drew Weissman, who won the 2023 Nobel Prize in Medicine for his role in developing mRNA technology, warned in a 2018 paper that not only did clinical trials of mRNA vaccines produce “more modest [results] in humans than was expected based on animal models,” but that the “side effects were not trivial.”

    Dr. Mccullough’s comments come as the Gates Foundation is spending $40 million on countries in Africa and other economically backward nations to produce new mRNA vaccines in efforts to prevent diseases like tuberculosis and malaria.

    Concealing a ‘Global Security Threat’

    In the Steve Deace interview, Dr. McCullough said that the ineffectiveness of the technology was not unknown to the government since they’ve been testing it for nearly 40 years.

    He referred to a February 2023 paper published in the British Medical Journal (BMJ), which cited that the U.S. government has been investing billions of dollars in developing messenger RNA technology since 1985.

    The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) began investing in mRNA tech in 2011. DARPA then launched the Pandemic Prevention Platform (P3) program in 2016 that sought to produce “relevant numbers of doses” against infections within 60 days of identifying them.

    The ADEPT P3 was a program by the U.S. military “to end pandemics in 60 days.” There is no other technology “that our government has invested more in,” Dr. McCullough said.

    Dr. McCullough cited another paper that stated there were “over 9,000 patents on messenger RNA. And all the patent assignees are big entities. At the top is Sanofi, then Cervavac, BioNTech, Moderna, and the U.S. government. No single person invented messenger RNA. Someone who comes up in 2021 and says, ‘You know I invented it’. That’s impossible. This has been going on for decades.”

    Dr. McCullough pointed out that the United States and China have been in “collaboration for years” in their research on infectious and lethal coronavirus.

    However, officials like Anthony Fauci, the former head of the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), Francis Collins, the former head of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and “a whole cadre of scientists, they collaborated to conceal this global security threat.”

    “They actually intentionally lied to the world and said the virus came out of nature. They knew it came out of the Wuhan lab,” he said, citing a research paper by Ralph Baric and Dr. Zhengli-Li Shi that was published in the Nature journal in 2015.

    Dr. Zhengli-Li Shi is affiliated with the Wuhan Institute of Virology, while Mr. Baric is from the Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

    “They said they created SARS-CoV-2 virus. They called it the Wuhan Institute of Virology 1 virus. That was the prototype SARS-CoV-2. So, that’s in 2015. Instead of bringing Ralph Baric out [and asking] ‘Dr. Baric, how do we get ourselves out of this disaster,’ you masterminded this virus funded by the US.”

    ‘Pull All COVID-19 Vaccines Off the Market’

    In his interview, Dr. McCullough made three recommendations. “I say number one, I’ve called in the US Senate [and] now the European Parliament [to] pull all COVID-19 vaccines off the market before anyone else is harmed.”

    “Number two, US, EU and all westernized Nations [should] pull out of the WHO. They’re not trustable. And number three, I’m following the World Council for Health. I am recommending a halt on all childhood vaccines, the entire vaccine schedule until this is clarified since messenger RNA is now on the schedule without any concerns for safety.

    Cardiologists Dr. Aseem Malhotra (left) and Dr. Peter McCullough (right) in Dallas, Texas, on Nov. 29, 2022. (Bao Qiu/The Epoch Times)

    While some studies related to the safety of COVID-19 vaccines have shown the jabs to be safe, others have raised concerns about the safety of the shots.

    A December 2022 study analyzed trials comparing vaccine recipients with individuals who did not receive a vaccine or were given a placebo.

    It concluded that “compared to placebo, most vaccines reduce, or likely reduce, the proportion of participants with confirmed symptomatic COVID-19, and for some, there is high-certainty evidence that they reduce severe or critical disease.”

    However, a June 2022 study that looked at mRNA vaccinations found that “Pfizer and Moderna mRNA COVID-19 vaccines were associated with an increased risk of serious adverse events of special interest (AESI).”

    “The excess risk of serious adverse events of special interest surpassed the risk reduction for COVID-19 hospitalization relative to the placebo group in both Pfizer and Moderna trials.”

    ‘Shedding’ the Infection

    During the interview, Mr. Deace asked about hearing issues that he and his colleague suffered and whether they had any ties with the vaccines. While he did not take a COVID-19 shot, the colleague was vaccinated. Mr. Deace asked if this was “further proof that basically the last few years Peter everybody was a lab rat whether you took the vaccine or not.”

    Syringes and vials of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine are prepared to be administered at a drive-up vaccination site in Reno, Nev., on Dec. 17, 2020. (Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images)

    “It’s true, nearly all of us have been exposed to the Wuhan spike protein,” Dr. McCullough replied. “When I see patients in the office, we check antibodies against the spike protein. Invariably, they’re elevated. Rarely, I’ll find somebody who hasn’t been exposed.”

    Dr. McCullough pointed out that there are “clear-cut papers” showing individuals suffering hearing loss after taking COVID-19 jabs. “It’s all related to the spike protein,” he said. mRNA vaccines work by instructing cells in the body to produce the spike protein found on the surface of the COVID-19 virus.

    Once vaccinated, an individual’s muscle cells begin producing spike protein pieces, displaying them on cell surfaces, which end up triggering the immune system to create antibodies. When such an individual gets infected with the COVID-19 virus, these antibodies will then fight the virus.

    Dr. McCullough warned that even people who have not received mRNA COVID-19 vaccines can eventually get affected by messenger RNA through a vaccinated individual via “shedding.”

    “Shedding means that one has been exposed to the spike protein or to the messenger RNA from close contact with another individual. We know both of them can travel via exosomes which are small phospholipid packets that can be exhaled [via] breath, through sweat, [and] various forms of body fluid, typically you know very close contact.”

    “There was a big project called the Eva project in the UK showing 78 percent of women who take a vaccine—they actually have menstrual abnormalities. And those who even didn’t take a vaccine, they end up having menstrual abnormalities. There’s been plenty of these reports that have occurred.”

    Dr. McCullough cited an interview he did with scientist Helene Banoun, an expert on shedding, who believes such things “clearly happens, for sure, in people who’ve taken the vaccine within 30 days, close contact.”

    “Now, two studies—one in the United States, one in Japan—[show] the messenger RNA comes through breast milk. The spike protein may be shedded potentially for a much longer duration of time. It’s been shown in the human body now for months, maybe even years afterward. And that’s the rationale for what our recent proposal to actually undergo spike protein detoxification.”

    The cardiologist pointed out that “every signal” related to cardiovascular disease, neurologic disease, blood clots, immune disease, and cancer “is up.”

    “There can be debates on why all these chronic diseases are up, all-cause mortality up in every single area of the world,” he said. “The two big exposures we’ve had are COVID-19 infection and now COVID-19 vaccines, and I think both mechanisms have led to this wave of disease.”

    “I think more powerfully with the vaccines since the vaccines are largely genetic, they’re given every six months, and they install the genetic code for the disease-promoting and lethal Wuhan spike protein.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/14/2023 – 22:10

  • Why Do Democrats Keep Farting On Camera?
    Why Do Democrats Keep Farting On Camera?

    Authored by Ben Sellers via Headline USA (emphasis ours),

    Last week, Rep. Alexandrio Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) hopped on a livestream to give a ‘very fine people on both sides’ damage control speech regarding the situation in Israel, after the Democratic Socialists of America came out for Hamas following last weekend’s brutal attack on Israelis.

    She did anything but clear the air… as Twitter followers couldn’t help but notice that during the 45-second livestreamed social-media broadcast, the socialist lawmaker unmistakably appeared to break wind around the 38 second mark.

    It came at a particularly awkward moment, during which “AOC” happened to be accusing Israel of genocidal war crimes after it struck back for the slaughter of more than a thousand innocent civilians—including the rape and torture of many—and the kidnapping of roughly 150 others whose fate remains unknown.

    “[T]he United States has a responsibility to ensure accountability to human rights to prevent the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians, and to ensure that horrors do not happen in the names of victims who do not want their [fart] tragedy used to justify further violence and injustice,” she said.

    But while few would have predicted it to be the next development in a story that has shocked the world and fueled global anxieties like never before about the outbreak of World War III, it is not the first time farts have become an unwanted diversion for AOC.

    One of her first acts as a freshman lawmaker was to draft the “Green New Deal,” a multi-trillion-dollar framework for revamping the entire U.S. economy in order to achieve net-zero carbon emissions.

    Unfortunately, the plan was widely ridiculed for its outlandish proposals—not the least of which was its fixation on regulating cow farts.

    Despite the popular rejection of it at the time, leftists and globalists have continued to push the Green New Deal agenda under different labels, including President Joe Biden’s “Build Back Better” plan and the “smart city” initiatives being coordinated by the World Economic Forum.

    And at least one nation—New Zealand—has attempted to impose a tax on cow farts—although it is unclear how they are assessed.

    In all likelihood, Ocasio–Cortez, who let the video remain up on her Twitter site as of Friday morning, felt no sense of shame over her own methane emission.

    She has performed other acts of public humiliation before, including dancing to bongos while enraged citizens jeered her at a town-hall meeting.

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    However, the Bronx boofer may have doomed her future presidential aspirations if history offers any indication.

    At least two past Democratic presidential candidates who have publicly cut the cheese went on to bomb in the ballot box.

    Hillary Clinton left the normally loquacious Sens. John Edwards and Barack Obama practically speechless after a burst during a November 2007 CNN debate ahead of the Democratic primary.

    Although Clinton was by far the better known name and widely considered to be the frontrunner at the time, Obama wound up closing the gap and going on to win the election—and two terms in office—while Clinton would go on to win the nomination in 2016 only to lose the general election.

    In 2019, while conducting an on-camera interview with then Hardball! host Chris Matthews, Rep. Eric Swalwell, considered to be a serious political upstart with a bright future and a formidable political adversary for then-President Donald Trump, appeared to shift a bit in his seat.

    Shortly thereafter, Swalwell let out a ripper that reared back his shoulders, but continued to make his point without missing a beat.

    At that point Swalwell already had launched and failed a short-lived presidential campaign, which lasted only about three months. However, the fart—and subsequent news of an affair with a Chinese honeytrap spy named Fang Fang—not only raised serious concerns about Swalwell’s judgment and integrity, but also made it hard to take him seriously.

    In January, Swalwell was one of three Democrat lawmakers who was stripped of his committee assignments due to concerns that he was unfit to serve on the House Intelligence Committee since he was potentially a compromised Chinese asset.

    And who could forget when Rahm Emanuel farted on the Charlie Rose show?

    Or when Rep. Jarrold Nadler (D-NY) may have duked in his diapers.

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    How much did he poop? Depends…

    Rudy toot toot?

    It’s not just Democrats…

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    And last but not least, current independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was caught in a fart scandal in July, but not one of his own making.

    While attending a private dinner with several members of the New York media at an Italian restaurant in Manhattan, RFK Jr. was upstaged by the evening’s host, literary agent Doug Dechert (a conservative), who began to argue about global warming while several cups deep into the evening’s libations.

    When the debate with his friend across the table became too tiresome, Dechert shut it down with a “loud, prolonged fart,” wrote Page Six reporter Mara Siegler, “while yelling, as if to underscore his point, ‘I’m farting!’”

    The moment apparently left many at the table shell-shocked, but perhaps not RFK Jr.’s campaign manager, Dennis Kucinich, who had dealt with public flatulence at least once before.

    Kucinich also was a candidate in the 2008 Democratic primary and was onstage during the Hillary Clinton incident.

    Ben Sellers is the editor of Headline USA. Follow him at twitter.com/realbensellers.

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    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/14/2023 – 21:35

  • US Confirms 2nd Carrier Group En Route To "Deter Hostile Actions Against Israel"
    US Confirms 2nd Carrier Group En Route To “Deter Hostile Actions Against Israel”

    Update (2100ET): The Pentagon has ordered a second carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean Sea, according to two US officials, as Israel prepares to expand its Gaza operations.

    The first carrier strike group, led by the USS Gerald R. Ford, arrived off the coast of Israel earlier this week.

    US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced on Saturday night that the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower carrying nine aircraft squadrons, as well as two guided-missile destroyers and a guided-missile cruiser, will soon join the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group in the region to “deter hostile actions against Israel or any efforts toward widening this war following Hamas’s attack on Israel.”

    The Biden administration made clear that the carrier, and its accompanying force, are not there to engage in combat activities on behalf of Israel but rather to deter others from entering the conflict, including Hezbollah.

    “The increases to US force Posture signal the United States’ ironclad commitment to Israel’s security and our resolve to deter any state or non-state actor seeking to escalate this war,” Austin stated.

     

    Additionally, the US administration has so far ruled out sending military personnel into Gaza as part of any Israeli ground invasion or attempt to free American hostages there, only aiding the IDF with intelligence and operation planning.

    *  *  *

    Update (1330ET): The Israeli military has announced it is prepared for a coordinated air, ground and naval offensive in the Gaza Strip “very soon,” according to reports from AP.

    In a nationally broadcast address Saturday night, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari issued a new appeal to residents to move to the southern Gaza Strip.

    “We are going to broadly attack Gaza City very soon,” he said.

    He accused Hamas of trying to use civilians as human shields.

    Meanwhile, the social media rhetoric between leaders has gone to ’11’…

    Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei expects a “complete victory”…

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    Calling on all Muslims to join the fight…

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    Israeli PM Netanyahu made his views very clear:

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    Live feeds below on Gaza: 

    *  *  *

    Israeli media is reporting a “greenlight” has been given for the expected major Israeli offensive on the Gaza Strip as massive convoys of Palestinian civilians have been observed fleeing to the southern part of the densely populated strip. So far there has been limited ground incursions by the army into the strip, targeting Hamas operatives and reportedly to gain intelligence on the whereabouts of hostages. 

    The United Nations has issued a report saying at least 423,000 Palestinians have already been internally displaced within Gaza and this massive figure is expected to ratchet further. Likely it has surpassed a half-million as of Saturday, following the Israeli-issued evacuation order, which included dropping thousands of leaflets and warnings over Gaza City. 

    Via The Guardian

    The UN said it “considers it impossible for such a movement to take place without devastating humanitarian consequences.” Middle East Eye and other regional sources have said over 700 Palestinian children were killed in one week of fighting. As of Friday Israel authorities tallied that over 1,300 Israelis were killed by the Hamas terror attacks on the southern settlements and the music festival, and rocket fire, with at least 3,200 wounded. 27 among the dead were Americans.

    Middle East Eye on Saturday reports the following of the mounting Palestinian death toll in both Gaza and the West bank as follows:

    Israel has killed at least 2,215 people in Gaza over the past week, according to the Palestinian health ministry. Of those killed, 724 are children and 458 are women. Some 8,714 people have been wounded in the besieged enclave in that time, it added. 

    Meanwhile, Israeli forces have killed 54 people and wounded 1,100 others in the occupied West Bank.

    According to a review of the last hours of developments, the population is about to run out of water as the remaining supply dwindles after Israel cut off external supply sources: 

    • UN agency for Palestinian refugees says its shelters in Gaza “are not safe anymore” as it warns water running our for besieged enclave’s residents.
    • More than 320 Palestinians have been killed in the past 24 hours, including many women and children killed in Israeli air raids on convoys fleeing Gaza City, according to health officials.
    • The rising toll comes as Israel continues bombing Gaza a day after telling 1.1 million residents to head south ahead of a looming ground offensive following Hamas’s attack inside Israel last week.
    • At least 2,215 Palestinians have been killed and 8,714 wounded in Israeli air attacks on Gaza. The number of people killed in Israel has reached 1,300, with more than 3,400 wounded.
    • In the occupied West Bank, the number of Palestinians killed by Israeli fire in the past week has topped 50. More than 1,000 have been wounded and hundreds arrested.

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    The fate of the estimated 100 to 200 hostages in Hamas captivity still remains largely unknown, but Hamas in statements which have been underreported in Western press has claimed that over two dozen of the hostages have been killed by the IDF’s ongoing aerial bombardment of the Gaza Strip: 

    Hamas’ Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades said nine more captives were killed in indiscriminate Israeli shelling in the last 24 hours, including a number of foreigners. 

    Qassam has previously announced the death of 17 captives in Israeli air stikes in Gaza over the past week. 

    Sky News and others are also reporting, based on Israeli sources, that bodies of hostages have been recovered after some of the initial IDF infantry cross-border raids which began Friday into Saturday:

    Raids carried out on the Gaza Strip by Israeli forces discovered human remains of those who had been missing since Hamas’s attack last weekend, local media is reporting.

    According to Haaretz, armed forces entered an enclave where it is thought up to 200 people were being held hostage by Hamas, and retrieved the bodies of several people.

    Items belonging to the missing people were also discovered. 

    The US said Friday it chartered its first successful evacuation flight, with talk of more to come.

    TOI: A military official at the forensic center at the Military Rabbinate’s headquarters in Ramle stands in front of the remains of the victims of Hamas’s October 7 shock onslaught in Israel, October 13, 2023. Flash90

    There are Americans (many of them likely dual nationals) among the population of Gaza, which Washington says it is trying to facilitate safe exit for as Israeli airstrikes continue. Dangerously, the lone Raffah border crossing into Egypt has at this point been bombed several times. 

    But regional media is reporting there’s been a diplomatic breakthrough on this front, as Israel, Egypt, and the United States have forged an agreement to let foreigners residing in Gaza pass through the Rafah border crossing into Egypt.

    Scene from the frontlines as the IDF build-up outside Gaza continues:

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    Huge civilian convoys have been witnessed fleeing to the southern half of Gaza, creating bottlenecks…

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    The Times of Israel cites a senior Egyptian official as follows:

    The official says Israel has agreed to refrain from striking areas the foreigners would pass through on their way out of the besieged Palestinian territory. He adds that Qatar was involved in the negotiations and the participants received approval from the Palestinian terror groups, Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

    The agreement  does not deal with hostages being held by Hamas.

    A second official at the Egyptian side of the Rafah crossing point says they received “instructions” to reopen it on Saturday afternoon for foreigners coming from Gaza.

    But Egypt is by and large not letting Gazans exit, even erecting bigger concrete barriers of extra border protection, amid what’s setting up to be a catastrophic humanitarian crisis as the Israeli pressure ratchets.

    The IDF says it is about to attack the northern half of the Gaza Strip with “great force” – while the US and other countries are urging for caution regarding Palestinian civilians. Below is rare footage of an elite Israeli rescue squad in action (intentionally blurred by IDF sources):

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    Washington has still all the while said it “stands with Israel” – and has not tried to actually halt the unrelenting IDF bombardment of civilian areas.

    Meanwhile, things continue ratcheting in south Lebanon, with reports of new strikes being exchanged between Israel and Hezbollah, and other pro-Palestinian factions.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/14/2023 – 21:00

  • Ukraine Vs Israel: Can The West Arm Both?
    Ukraine Vs Israel: Can The West Arm Both?

    Authored by William Van Wagenen via The Cradle,

    Just three days after the Hamas-led Palestinian resistance launched an unprecedented military offensive against Israeli military posts and settlements by land, sea, and air, Israeli officials began begging their US sponsors for additional weapons. Politico reported this week that according to a senior Pentagon official, “The Biden administration is surging weapons to Israel, rapidly sending air defenses and munitions in response to Israeli officials’ urgent requests for aid.”

    “Planes have already taken off,” the senior official told reporters. Amidst this escalating crisis for the occupation state, it’s worth pondering a crucial question: Can the US sustain a commitment to two significant existential conflicts involving vital allies in separate geographies simultaneously? 

    The answer is likely no. Washington has already devoted over $100 billion in military aid to Ukraine to fight Russia, while facing a national debt spiraling out of control and spiking inflation.

    It wasn’t supposed to be this way. The Ukraine war was meant to be easier; the isolation and economic unraveling of its Russian adversary, was a cinch. Instead, 18 months on, the US is struggling to support Ukraine in a bloody war of attrition. Worse yet, Kiev’s well-publicized spring offensive that was meant to flip those odds has come to naught in the face of Russia’s overwhelming advantage in artillery and advanced missiles. 

    AFP/Getty Images

    Little territory has changed hands since Russian forces withdrew from Kharkiv and Kherson in late 2022, but the Ukrainian army has since been decimated by Russian artillery in theatres such as Bakhmut. 

    “We think that Ukrainians have lost somewhere between 300 to 350 thousand dead, maybe more, hundreds of thousands of wounded,” retired US Colonel Douglas Macgregor bluntly stated in August. “These attacks have utterly bled Ukraine white.”

    This grim reality has given rise to what the BBC has described as “Ukraine’s army of amputees.” In the first half of this year alone, some 15,000 soldiers joined their ranks, surpassing the total amputees the UK produced over six years during World War II.

    While Ukraine faces a severe manpower shortage, western powers find themselves faced with a dearth of available weaponry to send to Kiev. Admiral Rob Bauer, NATO’s highest-ranking military official, candidly admitted on October 3rd, “The bottom of the barrel is now visible” concerning the west’s ammunition stockpile.

    In a sign of the mounting strain, the US began transferring to Ukraine 300,000 155-millimeter shells it had stored in Israel as part of the War Reserves Stock Allies-Israel (WRSAI) program.

    According to one Israeli officer, “Officially, all of this equipment belongs to the US military …. If, however, there is a conflict, the IDF [Israel Defense Forces] can ask for permission to use some of the equipment.”

    Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder claimed the US would replenish these stocks of artillery shells stored in Israel. But the US does not have the ability to do so, as Ukraine has been using between 3,000 and 6,000 rounds per day, a quarter of what Russia has used on the battlefield.

    CNN reported at the time that “The strain on weapons stockpiles – and the ability of the US industrial base to keep up with demand – is one of the key challenges facing the Biden administration.”

    Israel’s plea for US weapons

    The US military-industrial complex is heavily geared to produce high-cost weapons systems and hardware, like the $412 billion F-35 warplane. While these programs undoubtedly benefit weapons manufacturers like Lockheed Martin, they fall short in delivering the essential artillery required in vast quantities for a war of attrition against a formidable military.

    Now that war has broken out between Israel and the Palestinian resistance, Kiev faces a competitor not only in Moscow, but in Tel Aviv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on 9 October expressed the fear that US and European support would shift away from Ukraine and toward Israel, and claimed on the social media platform X:

    “We have data very clearly proving that Russia is interested in inciting war in the Middle East so that a new source of pain and suffering would erode global unity and exacerbate cleavages and controversies, helping Russia in destroying freedom in Europe.”

    While the Ukraine lobby enjoys clout in Washington, the Israel lobby reigns supreme. It is unlikely the former will be able to override the efforts of the latter to redirect what few US weapons remain available away from the defense of the Jewish state.

    Israel had consistently refused to send weapons to Ukraine…

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    That Israel is begging for US weapons just days into a conflict with Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) is alarming for the occupation state’s supporters, considering that none of the remaining Axis of Resistance members, including Hezbollah, Syria, Ansarallah, Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) and Iran, have yet formally entered the conflict.

    Should Hezbollah fully join the fight, Israeli planners expect the Lebanese resistance movement to fire 4,000 missiles a day from northern Lebanon and send thousands of elite troops into Israel to take over towns or military bases.

    Lessons from the 2006 war with Hezbollah 

    Israel and Hezbollah fought a major battle in 2006, which forced the Israeli military to wage war against a more “conventional” military opponent, in contrast to the Palestinians it confronts daily in the West Bank and Gaza.

    According to Matt Mathews of the US Army’s Combat Studies Institute, Israel was woefully unprepared to fight a “real war” in that conflict. He notes that as a result, Mossad Chief Meir Degan and the head of Shin Bet, Yuval Diskin, pointedly told then-Prime Minister Ehud Olmert “the war was a national catastrophe and Israel suffered a critical blow.”

    The 2006 war also exposed Israel’s reliance on US weapons, which nevertheless proved insufficient to defeat Hezbollah. During the war, Israel requested to access the WRSAI stockpile and that the US expedite the delivery of precision-guided munitions to Israel. Within just 10 days of fighting, Israel used most of its ammunition stock.

    Years later, in July 2014, during Israeli military operations against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Israel was again forced to rely on the WRSAI stockpile to replenish 120-mm tank rounds and 40-mm illumination rounds fired from grenade launchers.

    The problems Israel faced in 2006 and 2014 will be compounded if the Axis of Resistance now takes the step of initiating its “unification of the fronts” campaign.

    David Wurmer, Middle East adviser to former Vice President Dick Cheney, told the Wall Street Journal on 10 October that “The nightmare scenario for the Israelis is that they go a week or two shooting down 6,000 to 10,000 Hamas missiles, and then they have nothing left to stop the Hezbollah missiles.” 

    The silent threat of Iran’s missiles 

    The situation for Israel becomes even more challenging if Iran joins the conflict, as the Islamic Republic possesses substantial stocks of short-range and medium-range missiles capable of reaching both Israel and US bases in the region.

    The US and Israel often warn of the alleged threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program, despite its civilian orientation, but seldom mention the threat posed by Iran’s burgeoning conventional missile program.

    Israel’s actions express its worries more clearly than its words: in February of this year, Israel launched a drone attack against an Iranian military facility in Isfahan. According to Danny Yatom, a former head of the Mossad, the attack targeted a facility developing hypersonic missiles, which the New York Times described as “long-range munitions capable of traveling up to 15 times the speed of sound with terrifying accuracy.” 

    A very different Palestinian resistance

    In 1993, when Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) Chairman Yasser Arafat signed the Oslo Accords on the White House lawn with President Bill Clinton and Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, the Soviet Union had recently collapsed, while Iran was recovering from a bloody war with US-backed Iraq that killed one million people on both sides.

    When Arafat signed the accords, accepting US and Israeli promises that they would pave the way for a future Palestinian state, the Palestinians had few allies they could rely on and were blindsided by Tel Aviv’s actual intentions to fragment and destroy the Palestinian nation.

    Through Oslo, the US and Israel created the “shared fiction,” to use New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman’s words, that a Palestinian state would be established at some future date. According to Friedman, this allowed Israel to continue to confiscate land to build Jewish settlements, while the US could keep “peace hopes there just barely alive,” as cover.

    But now, more than 40 years later, the Palestinians are not alone. They are part of a region-wide Resistance Axis that has defeated US and Israeli agendas in a number of West Asian states, gaining invaluable fighting, organizational, and planning experience alongside reliable allies. 

    Meanwhile, the pile of recent US-side failures keeps mounting: Russia’s global clout spiked during the US proxy war in Ukraine; US adversaries China and Russia forged a multipolar world when Washington came at them; economic sanctions designed to cripple Russia and Iran only strengthened both states and sparked military collaborations. 

    Crucially, Russia and Iran today possess the industrial capabilities to produce the military firepower the US and NATO cannot provide to allies in either Tel Aviv or Kiev.

    Israel has already started the fight it may not be able to finish by declaring total war on Gaza’s civilian population, killing over 1,000, including hundreds of women and children, and flattening large swathes of the Gaza Strip in airstrikes. 

    For Tel Aviv, Gaza has always been low-hanging fruit – the punching bag it seeks when it needs to look tough. But today, one misstep, one badly aimed missile, or one step too far, and Israel will face a regional war it cannot withstand for any significant period of time.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/14/2023 – 21:00

  • 'No Regrets': Former CIA Director Repeats Debunked Russian Disinfo Claims About Hunter's Laptop
    ‘No Regrets’: Former CIA Director Repeats Debunked Russian Disinfo Claims About Hunter’s Laptop

    In an interview last night with Fox’s Bret Baier, former CIA Director Leon Panetta humiliated himself as he defended the letter that he and 50 other so-called ‘intelligence officials’ signed suggesting that the Hunter Biden laptop was Russian disinformation.

    Even more unsettling were his comments that he believes it could still be Russian disinformation.

    “That letter was used in the debate, I haven’t asked you this but do you have regrets about that now looking back, knowing what you know now?” Baier asked.

    Panetta explained that he was “extremely concerned about Russian interference” in the run up to the 2020 Presidential Election between then-former-Vice President Joe Biden and then-President Donald Trump.

    He claimed that intelligence agencies discovered that “Russia had continued to push disinformation across the board.”

    He said that he wanted to “alert the public” about the “disinformation efforts” to influence the election.

    “And frankly, I haven’t seen any evidence from any intelligence agency that that was not the case,” Panetta said.

    “You don’t think that it was real?” Baier asked.

    “I think that disinformation is involved here. I think Russian disinformation is part of what we’re seeing everywhere,” Panetta responded.

    “I don’t trust the Russians, and that’s exactly why I was concerned that the public not trust the Russians either.”

    And finally, Baier asked if Panetta had any regrets over how he handled the story.

    “No, I don’t have any regrets about not trusting the Russians,” Panetta said.

    As Jonathan Turley pointed out,Panetta simply refused to acknowledge:

    (1) American intelligence quickly debunked the claim and said that there was no evidence of Russian disinformation behind the laptop,

    (2) the emails contained in the laptop were quickly authenticated by the other parties,

    (3) the FBI authenticated the laptop,

    (4) Hunter Biden has since sued over the use of his laptop, and

    (5) the media has independently authenticated the laptop.

    This was the man in charge of our CIA.

    As a reminder, it has also been shown that the Biden campaign and associates coordinated the letter.

    Watch the lying liar lie below…

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    We give the last word back to Turley who summarized the former spook’s self-immolation perfectly: “Panetta has become the personification of the economic theory of path dependence. No matter how much countervailing evidence is presented to Panetta, he still refuses to accept the authenticity of the laptop.”

    However, in order to admit to these facts, Panetta would have had to admit that he was a willing or unwitting dupe of the campaign. It is easier to simply continue to claim that this could all be the invention of the Russians.

    Yet, as Turley exclaims, Panetta is still sought for his advice on other intelligence matters as he continues to repeat disproven claims because the truth is simply too costly on a personal level to acknowledge.

    What do we call false claims that are repeated despite being repeatedly debunked and disproven? Oh, yea, disinformation.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/14/2023 – 20:44

  • Don't Mess With Texas: Senate Passes Bill Allowing Local, State Police To Arrest Illegal Immigrants
    Don’t Mess With Texas: Senate Passes Bill Allowing Local, State Police To Arrest Illegal Immigrants

    The Texas Senate on Thursday approved a bill that will give local and state police the authority to arrest illegal migrants by making it a state crime to cross illegally into the United States. The bill, SB11, enables law enforcement to arrest those who violate the law.

    Under current law, state and local authorities must seek federal permission before arresting illegals.

    “Texas reached a record number of illegal immigrant apprehension in fiscal year 2023, with over 1.84 million apprehensions in Texas Sectors,” said state Sen. Brian Birdwell, author of the legislation. “As a result of the federal government’s unwillingness to enforce federal immigration laws and secure our southern border, Texas has stepped up and devoted time and resources to combat the unprecedented border crisis that the state is facing. SB 11 will give out troopers more authority to control the border and keep Texans safe.”

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    The bill passed late Thursday along party lines in a 19-12 vote, and is expected to advance following Gov. Greg Abbott’s show of support for the measure earlier this week.

    First time offenders face up to one year in jail, while convicted felons with multiple illegal entries could face life in prison.

    According to Lt. Gov. Dan Partrick, “This is the third time the Texas Senate has passed this critical legislation. The Senate is committed to securing the southern border and will pass this bill over and over again until it passes the Texas House, where it has died previously.”

    In an aerial view, migrants are seen grouped together while waiting to be processed on the Ciudad Juarez side of the border, in El Paso, Texas, on Sept. 21, 2023. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images/TNS)

    Earlier this month, Abbott called lawmakers back for a third special session, with border security a central focus, along with school choice, public safety and prohibiting employers from forcing employees to take COVID-19 vaccines.

    Mr. Birdwell said the bill aims to deter illegal crossing while encouraging immigrants to enter legally through one of the state’s 29 ports of entry, where they can be processed by U.S. Customs and Border Protection authorities.

    During Tuesday’s Border Security committee hearing on the bill, Texas Department of Public Safety Director Steve McCraw said an estimated 1.5 million immigrants cross illegally into Texas each year.

    Mr. McCraw said DPS troopers could arrest about 72,000 to 75,000 illegal immigrants if the law is passed. He said DPS made 35,000 criminal arrests last year. –Epoch Times

    State Democrats have responded to the bill like typical NIMBYs…

    “Where do we put all the people?” asked State Sen. Juan “Chuy” Hinojosa.

    State Sen. César Blanco (D) said he voted “no” on SB 11 due to the existing federal laws against “unlawful entry” into the country.

    “The federal government already has an offense for unlawful entry into the US, but that has not turned away desperate migrants looking for a better life,” he wrote on X. “I voted against SB 11 because this bill will only overwhelm local prisons and court systems with non-violent offenders and raise taxes on border communities while doing nothing to mitigate the humanitarian crisis on the border.”

    If the bill is signed into law it will take effect Dec. 1.

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    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/14/2023 – 20:25

  • Culture And Military Suicide: A Willful Blindspot
    Culture And Military Suicide: A Willful Blindspot

    Authored by Seth Allard via RealClear Wire,

    “If the Marine Corps is mostly white males, why do we need to understand culture?”

    I was shocked by the Defense Suicide Prevention Office pushback on exploring the role of culture in military suicide. But not surprised.

    The study of suicide continues throttling towards the statistical and biomedical, leaving culture in the dust amid a continuing suicide epidemic. The prevention and research landscape resembles “Dragnet” – Psychiatrists, psychologists, epidemiologists, and AI-tech experts seeking ‘just the facts.’ But our ‘facts’ are incredibly incomplete.

    “I think,” said researcher Craig Bryan, addressing the scarcity of cultural research, “one issue involves assumptions about the causes of suicide. I would argue that contemporary thinking about suicide is very biomedical in orientation and has become increasingly so over time. This bias almost certainly influences the availability of funds. A good portion of the research dollars have focused on developing and testing treatments and interventions to be delivered within healthcare systems. One could therefore argue that biomedical and clinical researchers have better access to resources to pursue such work.” Rajeev Ramschand at RAND echoed this sentiment in my article “Cultural Problems Require Cultural Solutions”, with three focus points for future research:

    “What is the mental health culture in military settings and how does it vary? This would address questions beyond individual questions about stigma to understand how military personnel perceive mental health treatment, how leaders perceive treatment, how other support personnel (e.g., chaplains) see mental health treatment, and even how mental health providers perceive military-sponsored mental health treatment. What does the culture of mental illness look like in military settings?

    “What is the culture of support in military settings? Beyond mental health, how strong and where are these deficiencies in cultures of support? Do people know when each other is struggling (relationally, alcohol use, financially) and do they offer support or ignore problems until they reach crisis points?

    “How have needs changed? Does the new cohort of military recruits have norms and expectations that will require changing the ways the military “does business” and how? Is the current structure and operations across the military supportive for helping new recruits function well, thrive, and does it promote health and well-being?”

    Bryan and Ramschand served on the Suicide Prevention and Response Independent Review Committee, providing 117 recommendations to DOD, duplicating many previous recommendations. Despite several mentions of culture – “greater care in the promotion and leadership selection process at all levels of the military could create a culture and environment that reduces vulnerability to suicide” – SPRIRC did not recommend shifting research from the biomedical and clinical to the cultural, which is tantamount to a trauma center treating gunshot victims while ignoring bullet holes.

    “Suicide,” said Matt Miller, Executive Director of VA Suicide Prevention, during a Senate Committee hearing on Veteran suicide, “is a complex problem with a multifaceted interweaving of potential contributing factors. In addition to mental health risk factors for suicide, we must look at a broader array of other contributing factors such as sociocultural risk factors and health related social needs that are also associated with suicide ideation and attempts.” Despite acknowledgement of the complexity of suicide, academia, military leadership, and government institutions that oversee research and policy are deeply resistant to studying culture. Thomas Joiner, head of the federally funded Military Research Suicide Consortium – billed as “multidisciplinary,” despite being restricted to one profession – and editor of a top academic journal, actively prioritizes quantitative, clinical research to the detriment of less “rigorous” and therefore less valuable qualitative and cultural approaches to understanding suicide. Conventional suicidologists boil down suicide to statistically relevant risk and protective factors, seeking the “gold standard” of research – randomized control trials – to test clinical interventions. Such research removes “confounding factors” or messy aspects of behavior and environment that challenges accepted theories, making it less valid (or publishable).

    The hyperfocus on clinical settings and interventions, to the exclusion of cultural perception and context, clearly explains our 20-year losing battle with military suicide. This willful blindness to cultural research is couched in academia’s culture of “publish or perish.” Obsessed with seeking grants, publishing papers in high impact factor journals, and getting tenure at major universities, most academics do not prioritize solving chronic health disparities. Like suicide itself, the burgeoning field of biomedically and risk centered suicide research shows no sign of slowing, presenting a disturbing correlation with increases in suicide.

    This trend is aided by the Institutional Review Boards, oversight bodies that review research proposals in a highly complex and bureaucratic process of evaluating risks and benefits of research involving human subjects. Though refuted, DOD and VA IRB bodies make it extremely difficult to implement novel research and interventions. While the “Not Just A Number Act,” requires VA to provide “more comprehensive data regarding those who have committed suicide” and holistic picture of suicidal veterans’ interactions with the VA, this policy fails to incorporate the cultural perspective and lived experience of veterans, families, and even healthcare providers, let alone the culture of the VA itself.

    While there are programs that attempt to prevent toxic climates from continuing, such as the Collaborative Assistance Team program stood up to “prevent ‘Another Fort Hood’,” these programs largely exclude in-depth cultural analysis and individuals with appropriate training, education, and aptitude for ethnography, the primary method for gaining in depth, contextual understanding of cultures and societies. Rather, such projects take an ‘organizational psychology’ tack and utilize SMEs with valuable, but limited awareness of ethnographic methods, confusing their results, (which can still be highly valuable), for ‘cultural research.’ It is also questionable how independently such projects and personnel operate or are seen by servicemembers.

    Some leaders in the military and veteran community, however, step strongly into this cultural breach using creativity and organic resources and knowledge. Senior enlisted conduct service wide “listening sessions” and utilize social media and Reddit. Equipped with cultural experience and language, hundreds of Veteran-led nonprofits reach out directly to Veterans. Many Veterans enter government, administrative and public health roles to provide leadership from within. Such initiative, more than anything, holds suicide at bay, and highlights the bureaucratic and risk averse nature of military, healthcare, and policy arms of government. Real change in suicide prevention challenges the status quo, defies dysfunctional power structures – a missing piece of the puzzle also seen in military sexual assault.

    My attempt to ‘give back’ by providing free culturally adapted Mental Health First Aid training to SOI (West) and prepare Marines to respond to mental health crises, was defeated by a risk averse climate, an excuse being that similar training exists in UMAPIT 3.0 training. Yet, MHFA is provided to civilian personnel, but not Marines, a reason being, one senior civilian personnel reviewing the proposal disclosed, “what if we talk about suicide and a Marine kill themselves?” It did not help that another leader at SOI East accused me of attempting to “experiment” on Marines. Despite support from two Chaplains, one high ranking in a nearby command, and the suicide prevention specialist, and facilitation by education and training staff, the proposal died. Yet, risk averse leadership torpedoed the training with unclear explanation. As for UMAPIT training – why would alternative training be supported on the ground if the current training were effective enough to prevent suicide? Could the answer be that required training are commonly designed and delivered as “check the box bull****” that fails to empower Marines and prevent suicide? Let the reader view a clip of UMAPIT 3.0 to see how inspirational and skills based the training is.

    In 2018 I approached Joiner at a conference, a veteran speaking to someone with great influence over suicide research and advocating for more focus on servicemembers’ lived experience and perspective on mental health and suicide. His response? About a minute-long silent stare down. The need to understand culture did not register with a leading suicidologist, just as servicemembers’ and veterans’ experiences are not registered by bureaucrats or academics. Working with America’s Warrior Partnership, I learned that Veteran suicides themselves often do not register, instead chalked up as overdoses. We are seen through the sanitized lens of statistics and genetics, a walking infographic of risk and protective factors, data to be mined, not as complex, ever evolving, highly social creatures who possess strengths. Bryan described his experience with the SPRIRC changing his view of suicide and the contributing quality of life issues in the military as a “death by a thousand paper cuts.” The only force that causes death by a thousand paper cuts is culture. It is the ethical responsibility of researchers and policy makers, when their framework for understanding and solving problems is proven ineffective and the problem is out of their scope, to include new working strategies and people who do have the right tools.

    As retired General Steve Salazar, president of leadership training organization 360MVP, says, we must focus on “Making the Strong Stronger.” During a visit by Senator Angus King’s staff, an airman and self-described “wrench turner,” emphasized that mental health challenges are unique to specific occupations and environments. This insight informed provisions backed by King that requires suicide reporting by branch and occupation. What a retired General and a serving “wrench turner” recognize, which we must recognize, is that lived experience, cultural context, and our strengths must be incorporated proactively to produce working solutions. As one of my teachers, Jessica Harrington, from the Health Policy Research Scholars program at Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, says, “Policy without people becomes politics.” What culturally centered and collaborative research can accomplish, and clinical approaches cannot, is realignment of suicide prevention and research with a humanistic approach that is not beholden to a risk-averse or stuck mindset.

    It is past time to look into the mirror, face the ugliness of dysfunctional institutions and their cultural antecedents, become conscious of problems and our participation in them, and do the work of change, which reflects a time-honored tradition of ethical and disciplined warrior practice. I do not know if those in authority possess the courage to accomplish this task. With a legislative requirement to incorporate cultural research and collaborative partnerships with troops on the ground, and a working system to ensure that policies like “Not Just a Number” are implemented with intent and effect, we can save lives. Until then, it is up to us as the military and veteran community to save ourselves.

    Seth Allard is a former Marine Infantryman (2004 – 2009, active), a PhD student of social work at Wayne State University, and a member of the Sault Ste Marie Tribe of Chippewa Indians. Seth’s focus is on both Native American and Military/Veteran suicide and mental health, and cultural approaches to understanding and preventing suicide and improving mental health. He has published with Marine Corps University Press, Marine Gazette, Routledge Press, and the Havok Journal. He is also a Health Policy Research Scholar with the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and is continuing his education in clinical social work intern with the Veterans Justice Outreach program at the VA Ann Arbor.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/14/2023 – 19:50

  • Leftist Media Call Trump-Supporters "Far-Right"… For What?
    Leftist Media Call Trump-Supporters “Far-Right”… For What?

    Authored by Jack Hellner via AmericanThinker.com,

    As far as I can tell, anyone who supports Trump – say, Jim Jordan – is labeled hard right. 

    So which policies made Trump far-right, according to the media and other Democrats?

    Enforcing border laws that Congress passed and building a wall?  The public seems to support that, so that would be a middle-of-the-road policy. 

    Opposes sanctuary cities and states.  It appears that the leftists who claimed they were sanctuaries are rethinking their disastrous policies.

    Being tough on crime instead of supporting soft-on-crime D.A.s.  That is not unpopular. 

    Supporting limits on abortion.  Two thirds of Americans support limiting abortion to the first thirteen or fifteen weeks, just like Europe. 

    Supporting lower tax rates and fewer regulations.  Those are not unpopular positions.  In fact, they lifted up the people at the bottom of the economic ladder.  Real wages rose rapidly, and poverty hit a record low at the end of 2019.  How can that be hard right? 

    Opposing the teaching that the U.S. is a racist country.

    Trump repeatedly denounced white supremacists just like almost all Americans. 

    Trump didn’t want people to be fired for refusing to take a vaccine just like most Americans. 

    Trump moved rapidly to get schools and businesses back open after the initial shutdown.  That is certainly not a far-right position. 

    Trump supports school choice for the poor, just like the majority of Americans, especially minorities.  

    Trump opposes allowing men to compete against women, just like most Americans.  He opposes allowing men to expose themselves in women’s locker rooms.

    Trump supported drilling and energy independence.  That kept inflation low and helped the poor, the middle class, and small businesses. 

    Trump does not believe that climate change is the greatest existential threat. 

    Trump sought to make NATO pay what they were supposed to.  Why would that be an unpopular policy or far-right? 

    Trump moved the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, just as Congress and previous presidents had promised. 

    Trump put a squeeze on Iran.  Why would it be far-right to cut off funding from a country that pledges death to America and death to Israel? 

    Trump and his son-in-law made great progress in the Middle East with the Abraham accords.  That certainly is not hard-right. 

    Trump challenged the 2020 election, just like how Democrats challenged the 2000, 2004, and 2016 election.  There is nothing far-right about challenging elections. 

    Trump told people to march peacefully and patriotically to the capital to protest the election.  What is far-right about peace and patriotism?

    Trump told the Germans they were stupid to rely on Russia for their energy.  He was right. 

    Putin has attacked Ukraine while Obama and Biden were president, not Trump. 

    Trump asked Ukraine to investigate the Bidens for corruption.  It would be a dereliction of duty for a president to learn of corruption and not investigate.  Sadly, the media and other Democrats impeached him for doing his job. 

    Basically, Republicans like Trump and Jordan are called far-right by the media and other Democrats to intentionally mislead the public, just as they did with the fictional Russian collusion story. 

    Democrats don’t want to debate their leftist policies because they are unpopular so they always go to the same playbook.  Call Republicans sexists, bigots, racists, and far- or hard-right.  They sure don’t care that the corrupt Clintons and Bidens have lined their pockets with illegal kickbacks for years. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/14/2023 – 18:40

  • Second Largest US Lab-Grown Diamond Producer Goes Bust 
    Second Largest US Lab-Grown Diamond Producer Goes Bust 

    The second-largest US producer of lab-grown diamonds has filed for bankruptcy amid a massive glut of fabricated gemstones and plunging prices. 

    Financial Times reports that Washington-based WD Lab Grown Diamonds filed for Chapter 7 in a Delaware bankruptcy court and had total liabilities of around $44 million and assets of $3 million. The company listed it had between 100 and 199 creditors. 

    In 2020, WD Lab Grown Diamonds became the first diamond company to be certified under the “Standard for Sustainable Diamonds” by third-party verifier SCS Global Services. Operations began in 2008 and have played a pivotal role in innovating the lab-grown diamond industry, generating roughly $33 million in revenue last year. 

    Paul Zimnisky, an independent diamond analyst, said the collapse of WD Lab Grown Diamonds is a sign it struggled to compete with Chinese and Indian producers. 

    In the last seven years, a single-carat lab-grown diamond has plunged more than threefold due to a flood of supply, a massive relief for mining companies who have seen natural diamond prices crash. 

    Real diamond prices 

    The slide in real diamond prices comes as consumers pivot to cheaper lab-grown stones. Also, there’s an ongoing global luxury spending slowdown as recession risks rise. 

    As for the lab-grown diamond industry, it’s a race to the bottom as more supply only pushes prices lower, slashes margins, and ultimately results in business failures.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/14/2023 – 18:05

  • Bob Menendez Is A Symptom
    Bob Menendez Is A Symptom

    Authored by John Tamny via RealClear Wire,

    In 1988, Pulitzer Prize-winning New York Times reporter Hedrick Smith authored “The Power Game: How Washington Works.” It was a fascinating, if unflattering, portrait of the nation’s capital that not only has proven prescient, but remains relevant today.  

    Having arrived in Washington in 1962, Smith charted what he called “stunning transformations” in the previous two and a half decades. These ranged from “the new congressional assertiveness” engendered by Richard Nixon’s resignation and the revolt by young members against the seniority system, to how the utter supremacy of television had warped the system and produced “a new generation of video politicians whose medium was the tube rather than the political clubhouse.”  

    These words were written, mind you, when Matt Gaetz was seven years old – and two years before Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was born. But the most significant change Smith documented was the stunning proliferation of lobbyists, hangers-on, and congressional aides.  

    Many of these aides were not just career politicians, but men and women who’d never had any other career other than politics. One of the subjects highlighted in Smith’s book had worked on Capitol Hill as a staffer, only to run for Congress. He won. His quip to Smith upon reaching Congress as a back-bencher (lightly paraphrased) was that “never has one individual so willingly given up so much power.”    

    Sen. Robert Menendez is a poster boy for this new ethos. He ran for student body president in high school and won, and never really stopped angling for office. While still in college, he served as an aide to the mayor of Union City, N.J. At 20, he was elected to the local school board. A few years later, he ran against the mayor he worked for. Menendez lost that first campaign, but won the rematch in 1986. The following year, he ran and won a seat in the state legislature, and in a sign of the avaricious nature that would later get him indicted, he kept the mayor’s office (and salary) serving in both posts at once.  

    From there, it was the state Senate in Trenton, a House seat in Washington, and in 2006, he was appointed to the U.S. Senate seat he still holds, at least for now. And while the greed alleged in a criminal indictment filed last month by federal prosecutors has alienated even his fellow Democrats who have called for his resignation, there’s a case to be made that Bob Menendez isn’t the problem as much as he’s a symptom of the problem of a system dominated and warped by career politicians.   

    Consider a description from the New York Times about how Menendez has operated:   

    “He accepted rides on private plans, luxurious vacations, and other perks from wealthy friends while freely using his office to advance their interests.”    

    Contrast that description with the Hedrick Smith anecdote about a newly elected pol. While until recently Menendez was the picture of power, including routine visits to the smoking porch at Morton’s (his annual bill at the steak chain alone was reported to be $16,000) where he enjoyed the best of the best cigars, the newbie in Congress was a bit of a nobody. Well, of course.                

    This may be Menendez’s nature, as reporters haven’t yet gotten around to digging into what he was up to for all those years in Union City and Trenton. But one thing is clear. He certainly learned the ways of Washington: getting to know the right people (elected and unelected) while perfecting the skill of moving money to the programs and projects desired by those with money, or who wanted to attain it. Menendez, the New York Times also noted, helped bring home the bacon for his constituents as well, from a Hudson County light-rail network to billions of dollars in federal aid to rebuild after Hurricane Sandy ravaged the state in 2012. Recently, he’s credited with securing funding for a new rail tunnel beneath the Hudson River, currently the nation’s largest public works project.    

    Little of the federal funding Menendez directed to New Jersey could have been secured by a rookie senator. But Menendez learned, and learned well, the ways of Washington over time. As former New Jersey Gov. James McGreevey put it to the Times, “Bob labored intensely to master detail.” This political mastery is what made him such a magnet for money, as those who can move billions of dollars around tend to be.    

    “No man’s life, liberty, or property are safe while the Legislature is in session,” is an old saw of American politics. It’s even truer for Congress. And one moral of the Menendez story, whether he beats the rap or is convicted, is that term limits would limit the time spent in Washington, time in elected office that is so instrumental in one’s ability to grow government. 

    It’s something to think about. The easy, politically expedient thing to do is make political hay of Menendez’s obnoxious ethical lapses. But if the desire is to at least try to fix the system, one solution might be limiting time in office so that elected officials don’t have the time to amass the power and learn the skills that it takes to act unethically.    

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/14/2023 – 17:30

  • Rent Control Is A Disaster – Don't Let It Spread Across The Nation
    Rent Control Is A Disaster – Don’t Let It Spread Across The Nation

    Authored by Betsy McCaughey via The Epoch Times,

    America’s renters – more than one-third of the nation’s households – are in for trouble.

    Left-wing politicians are demanding rent regulation from coast to coast. Wherever it is adopted, the result will be a disastrous reduction in the rental housing supply, leaving renters desperate for places to live.

    New York is the poster child for the failures of rent regulation. The U.S. Supreme Court is currently mulling a challenge to the constitutionality of the city’s rent regime.

    Whatever the justices decide, the public needs to consider less destructive, more targeted ways to help low-income people pay for housing. The court of public opinion needs to consider these facts.

    Fact No. 1: Rent regulation isn’t targeted to the poor.

    In New York, there’s no means test. What you need is luck or connections. The mean income of a rent-stabilized apartment dweller is $47,000, but census data show that tens of thousands of them earn more than $150,000 per year. Some occupants use what they’re saving on rent to pay for a weekend place in the Hamptons or New England.

    The pols don’t object—a sure sign they’re calling for rent regulation to help themselves politically, not the poor.

    In New York, 44 percent of rental apartments are regulated by the Rent Guidelines Board (RGB), established in 1969, which sets the maximum amount by which landlords are allowed to raise the rent. Those limits apply to all buildings of six or more units built before 1974.

    In 2022, the RGB set the maximum rent hike at 3.25 percent on one-year leases and this year at 3 percent. Never mind that last year, fuel costs to heat the buildings soared by 19 percent and overall inflation hit 8.3 percent.

    The decisions are political, not economic. Many Democratic politicians vilify building owners as “greedy landlords” and depict themselves as the champions of the downtrodden. It’s a scam.

    Fact No. 2: Winners and losers.

    The winners are the lucky few with rent-regulated apartments and the pols who count on an army of tenant activists to turn out at the polls. The losers are the 56 percent of renters who don’t score a regulated apartment and have to scour neighborhoods for an unregulated place that they can afford. They’re paying more.

    Why? Because regulation causes some landlords to walk away, reducing the overall supply of apartments. The laws of supply and demand mean rents go up. New Yorkers in unregulated apartments are paying the highest rents in the United States for a one-bedroom apartment. They’re the real victims, and they should be furious.

    Yet the left-wing press pretends that rent control offers only benefits. The New Republic warns that the Supreme Court challenge threatens “laws that have benefitted the city’s tenants for generations.” Sorry, untrue—only some tenants, and not always the neediest.

    It’s economic madness. The saner way to help those who need assistance paying rent is with a voucher. We offer the needy SNAP debit cards to help them pay for groceries. No one slaps price controls on grocery stores or designates certain stores as “regulated,” forcing them to sell at below cost.

    Yet New York forces certain landlords to pay what should be a public cost shared by all, an argument made to the court.

    Fact No. 3: The Marxist fantasy that rent regulation will help the poor is spreading across the United States and Europe as well.

    Maine and Minnesota have enacted laws allowing municipalities to impose rent regulations. In November 2024, California voters will be asked to approve a proposition allowing local governments to add additional restrictions to the state’s existing rent caps.

    The laws of supply and demand are international. Berlin froze rents in 2019, and the rental supply plummeted, according to the Ifo Institute, a think tank.

    Yet London Mayor Sadiq Khan is calling for freezing rents for two years. London provides housing vouchers to the poor—a smarter approach—but when the city froze the voucher amounts during the COVID-19 pandemic, fewer apartments were available in the price range. The answer is to raise the voucher amount. Freezing rents will only make the shortage worse.

    Ignore the demagogues. The evidence is in: Rent regulation is a political scam. There are better ways to help Americans afford a place to live.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/14/2023 – 16:20

  • Watch: Baseless Gender Ideology Cartoon Now Part Of 4th Grade Curriculum In Wisconsin
    Watch: Baseless Gender Ideology Cartoon Now Part Of 4th Grade Curriculum In Wisconsin

    The case in favor of homeschooling is growing by the day.  Multiple public school districts in the state of Wisconsin officially added gender fluid ideology as a part if their controversial “Human Growth and Development” curriculum that earned heat from critics in 2022.  While Wisconsin allows districts to tailor their own sex education programs and not all districts are the same, basic lessons in many districts include teaching “gender role stereotypes” to second graders, third graders are urged to investigate their gender identity and sixth graders are instructed to refer to girls as “a person with a vulva.”

    For 4th and 5th graders in the Superior School District of Wisconsin, the 2023-2024 required resource list includes a cartoon produced by the Canadian Public Broadcasting Service (CBC) called ‘Gender Explained.’  This is what they are now teaching to 9-year-olds in WI:

    Below is the the portion of the Superior District required curriculum resources list that includes the CBC cartoon:

    Gender ideology was initially taught covertly to children by activist teachers across the US, with teacher unions and organizations quietly encouraging the practice while also pushing for secrecy from parents.  Progressives denied the practice for years, claiming that accusations were “paranoia and conspiracy theory” despite ample evidence to the contrary, including teacher’s own confessions on social media. 

    After exposure became widespread and parents realized that their children were being indoctrinated into the far-left fold instead of being taught reading, writing and arithmetic, the uproar did not lead to a change in momentum or an apology from schools.  Rather, Democrat states and school districts doubled down, admitted that they were teaching gender fluidity to kids and started officially adding the lessons to the curriculum.  This has been the case in Wisconsin.

    Gender identity started as a fringe movement attached to LGBT organizations, but it has quickly mutated into a sweeping sociopolitical movement with the help of the entertainment industry, social media, corporate propaganda and most of all, public school teachers.  Studies show a huge spike in trans identifying children from 2017-2021, right as gender curriculum was being secretly introduced in classrooms. 

    Trends among young people often die as quickly as they are adopted; the problem is that schools and government organizations are institutionalizing the trans fantasy as if it is proven science.

    Keep in mind, there is no concrete scientific evidence supporting the notion that “gender” exists separate from biological sex, or that gender identity is fluid outside of an extremely rare mental illness known as gender dysphoria.  In fact, trans activists have organized in an attempt to have studies disproving gender theory removed from major scientific journals. 

    For example, in March, activists were able to force a retraction on technical grounds of a paper on gender dysphoria by one of the world’s largest academic publishers, Springer Nature, which publishes Nature magazine and Scientific American.  The paper found a large number of parents of gender dysphoric children said that their children suffered from long standing preexisting mental health issues.  The study also reported a large number of parents surveyed thought their children’s gender dysphoria resulted from social contagion.  In other words, kids are jumping on the bandwagon because it is seen as trendy, or because they are being brainwashed.      

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/14/2023 – 15:45

  • The Sword Of Damocles: An Economic Worst-Case Scenario For The Israeli-Palestine War
    The Sword Of Damocles: An Economic Worst-Case Scenario For The Israeli-Palestine War

    Authored by Tuomas Malinen via Substack,

    On Tuesday, I published a post on X (Twitter), which summarized an economic worst-case scenario for the Israeli-Palestine war. It included 10 points:

    1. The conflict escalates into a regional war with the U.S. becoming directly involved.

    2. OPEC responds with an oil embargo.

    3. Iran closes the strait of Hormuz.

    4. The price of oil reaches $300/barrel.

    5. Europe succumbs into a full-blown energy crisis due to LNG shortage.

    6. Massive spike in energy prices reinvigorates inflation with central banks responding accordingly.

    7. Financial markets and the global banking sector collapse.

    8. Debt crisis engulfs the U.S. forcing the Federal Reserve to enact yet another financial market bailout.

    9. Petrodollar trade collapses.

    10. Hyperinflation emerges.

    In this entry, I go through each step.

    History rhymes?

    In October 1973, Israel fought the Yom Kippur War against a coalition of Arab States led by Egypt and Syria. As a result of this, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries proclaimed an oil embargo against western countries supporting Israel. In six months, the price of oil rose by nearly 300%, globally, and even more in the U.S., which at that time had become dependent on the Middle-Eastern oil.

    In the current time, in the worst-case, Israel launches a major counter-offensive against Palestine leading to a declaration of war, to Israel, from Iran and Syria (others may join too). In this situation, the U.S. would be almost surely forced to respond and take part in the defense of Israel. The Ford carrier strike group (which includes world’s largest warship, USS Gerald R. Ford) has been dispatched to eastern Mediterranean and the Biden administration has been reported of considering sending another carrier strike group to eastern Mediterranean. There are also rumors of U.S. military cargo planes making routine trips to Israel.

    Any direct U.S. involvement in the war would almost surely force a response from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, or at least from some of its members. This would, most likely, take the form of an oil embargo to the U.S. and possibly Europe.

    The strait of Hormuz is a pivotal, narrow strait for the global oil markets. One-sixth of all oil and one-third of all liquified natural gas, or LNG, consumed in the world passes through it. The strait includes eight islands of which seven are controlled by Iran, but it has a military presence in all eight. Thus, Iran has the military capacity to close the strait.

    The means of closing the strait are plenty. Essentially, they range from a threat-based closing, where Iran threatens to sink any tanker passing through it, to actual sinking of a super-tanker into the strait closing it for an unknown period of time and also polluting the Persian Gulf. However, as close to 85% of Iranian imports pass through the strait, the latter option can be considered unlikely.

    If the closing, or even a disruption of traffic through the strait of Hormuz would occur, with the Russian oil and gas embargo continuing, we would most likely, see the global prices of oil and LNG skyrocket to never-before-seen heights. This would reinvigorate rapid inflation, but there would also be more serious repercussions.

    The Achilles heel of Europe

    After closing most of the pipelines delivering Russian gas to Europe, the continent has relied on the global LNG market to fill the gap. Most importantly, Europe has relied both U.S. and Middle-Eastern sources for gas deliveries.

    For example, Germany just signed a contract with Oman LNG for gas deliveries, which pass through the strait of Hormuz. Germany has also signed an agreement with U.S. based Venture Global on LNG deliveries making it the largest provider of LNG to Germany. However, VG has not even yet started building the facility where gas to Germany is delivered from.

    The U.S. has accounted for little over half of Europe’s LNG demand during the past year, with Russia and the Middle-East providing around 30%. If both of these latter sources were cut, or their supply seriously reduced, it’s unlikely that the U.S. or other sources could fill up the gap, because the global LNG market is undersupplied. Moreover, combining Middle-Eastern (and possibly Russian) gas cutoff with a normal or a cold winter could create an utterly devastating conditions for the already “finely balanced” European gas market.

    This means that the Israel-Palestine conflict has the capacity to derail all plans for energy security in Europe, as Russian gas has been cut (and blown) of. It’s hard to overstate the seriousness of this threat with German and European economies already sinking into a recession. Return of the energy crisis (with vengeance!) would most likely strike a mortal blow to the European economy and topple her banking sector with known global consequences.

    From financial chaos to hyperinflation

    Naturally, reinvigorated inflation pressures would force central banks to enact another round of interest rate rises. This would wreak havoc among consumers and corporations, but also in the capital markets. Yields of sovereign debt would likely explode. This would be followed by an utter collapse of asset and credit markets, á la spring of 2020.

    At this point, we would most likely see the central banks take their “monetary perversions” to another level. This means that while they would be raising interest rates to quell inflation, they would also enact asset purchase programs to support the sovereign debt, credit and asset markets. The bailout of the financial markets would need to reach several trillions of USD, like during the spring of 2020. This would push a vast amounts of money and especially U.S. dollars into the global economy. This would naturally increase inflation pressures massively, but there’s a risk something even worse.

    As a ‘nuclear option’, OPEC could stop using USD in the oil trade altogether. This would mean that the demand for dollars would suddenly collapse, and the “excess dollars”, formerly used to purchase oil, would eventually head home. This would create an unprecedented spike in the money supply of the U.S. creating perfect conditions for hyperinflation with collapsing production due to a deep recession fueled by rapid inflation, high interest rates and a banking crisis. Havoc in the U.S. economy, and thus the world, would be nothing short of apocalyptic.

    Conclusions

    As I am finalizing this (October 11), first reports of missile strikes to Israel from Hezbollah have surfaced in X (Twitter). At this point, it’s impossible to corroborate or debunk these claims. If these have occurred, we have just taken steps to reach the first point of the worst-case scenario.

    In any case, the scenario outlined above underlines the seriousness of the situation we currently find ourselves in. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has the capacity to 1) deliver an energy checkmate for Europe and 2) initiate a devastating collapse of the U.S. economy.

    However, it should be noted that, while it’s currently unlikely that we see all 10 points come to pass, if we reach even the first points, they would deliver a crushing blow to the fragile global economy. That’s why the situation needs to be followed very closely.

    Regardless, it may not be a bad idea to buy gold, gasoline, gas and wood (if you have a stove).

    We will continue to provide guidance for preparation in GnS Economics Newsletter.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/14/2023 – 15:10

  • Military Agrees To Pay $1.8 Million To Settle Lawsuits From COVID Vaccine Mandate
    Military Agrees To Pay $1.8 Million To Settle Lawsuits From COVID Vaccine Mandate

    Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times (Emphasis ours),

    In a settlement agreement submitted on Oct. 3, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Army Secretary Christine Wormuth, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall, and Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro agreed to settle the pair of lawsuits—known as U.S. Navy SEALs 1-26 v. Biden and Colonel Financial Management Officer, et al. v. Austin—which challenged the legal basis of the military-wide vaccine mandate.

    A soldier watches a colleague receive his COVID-19 vaccination from Army Preventive Medicine personnel in Fort Knox, Ky., on Sept. 9, 2021. (Jon Cherry/Getty Images)

    The two cases were brought by servicemembers from all U.S. military branches, including numerous officers and several members of the elite U.S. Navy SEALs. The Navy SEAL plaintiffs initially filed their lawsuit nearly two years ago in October 2021 after President Joe Biden ordered that all U.S. troops and other executive branch employees be vaccinated against COVID-19.

    Military servicemembers have raised numerous objections to the military COVID-19 vaccine mandate, including claims that the various military branches routinely rejected requests for religious accommodations to the mandates. Plaintiffs have also raised health concerns over the relatively condensed timeline under which the various COVID-19 vaccines were developed and then granted approval by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

    While the various COVID-19 vaccines were originally made available to the general public under emergency use authorizations, the FDA eventually granted full approval to the Pfizer–BioNTech vaccine version, later marketed as Comirnaty. President Biden introduced the vaccine mandate shortly after the FDA granted full approval for Comirnaty, but the lawsuits argued that the FDA-approved vaccine often wasn’t actually available to servicemembers, meaning that the military vaccine mandate effectively required service members to take versions of the COVID-19 vaccines that didn’t have full FDA approval.

    Last year, Republican lawmakers introduced a provision in the 2022 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) that repealed the military’s vaccine mandate. President Biden ultimately signed the 2022 NDAA into law, despite objecting to the provision reversing his military vaccine mandate.

    Liberty Counsel, a religious liberty nonprofit that represented military plaintiffs in the two cases, celebrated the Oct. 3 settlement agreement.

    “The military COVID shot mandate is dead,” Liberty Counsel founder and Chairman Mat Staver said in a statement. “Our heroic service members can no longer be forced to take this experimental jab that conflicts with their religious convictions.”

    The $1.8 million settlement will be split between the two cases, with $900,000 being paid out for SEAL 1-26 v. Biden and the same amount being paid to the plaintiffs in Colonel Financial Management Officer, et al. v. Austin.

    “Through our daily work with service members in every branch, we have had the privilege of knowing some of the finest people who love God and love America,” Mr. Staver said. “These heroes should not have been mistreated by our own government. At the same time, we have come to realize that many of the high-ranking members of leadership, the Pentagon, and the Biden administration need to be replaced. Collectively, they dishonored the brave men and women who defend our freedom. We stand ready to defend our defenders of freedom if any religious discrimination occurs in the future.”

    Approximately 8,400 U.S. military servicemembers were involuntarily separated from the military as a result of the COVID-19 vaccine mandate.

    The majority of servicemembers received a general discharge, as opposed to a more favorable honorable discharge. Servicemembers separated under a general discharge can be barred from rejoining the military and don’t have full access to educational benefits under the GI Bill.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/14/2023 – 14:00

  • Watch: Leftist Activists Across The US Call For "Intifada" In Support Of Palestinians
    Watch: Leftist Activists Across The US Call For “Intifada” In Support Of Palestinians

    It is perhaps one of the strangest political alliances in existence today – The political left’s infatuation with Muslim extremism and supporting Islamic causes, despite the fact that the majority of leftists would likely be imprisoned or worse in Islamic countries for their beliefs. 

    Regardless of a person’s position on the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, it cannot be denied that Muslim culture is inherently hostile to progressive concepts like women’s rights, gay rights, diversity and inclusion, sexual revolution, etc.  Opposition to trans ideology in particular is one of the few areas, in fact, where orthodox Muslims and conservatives in the US tend to find common ground.  In other words, Muslims have little or nothing in common with the political left in the west.  

    Where the movements seem to intersect is up for debate, but it is clear that leftist activists are quick to jump on any opportunity to provoke violent deconstruction.  The past couple days have given rise to a series of leftist rallies, mostly in blue enclaves and university environments, all across the US.  People bearing rainbow flags and Palestinian flags are calling for “one solution” – A violent intifada.

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    The rallies all appear to be tied to far-left groups from Antifa to LGBT groups.

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    From Portland, Orgeon…

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    …to New York.

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    Even BLM wants in on the Intifada…

    How leftist activists plan to reconcile their support of Islamic extremism with their own ideological taboos remains to be seen.  Furthermore, with the majority of Democrat politicians including Biden publicly in favor of Israel, one wonders if there will be a considerable split in the Democrat party if the conflict continues to escalate beyond the borders of Gaza.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/14/2023 – 13:25

  • Ex-Walmart CEO Says US Consumers Reaching 'Breaking Point'
    Ex-Walmart CEO Says US Consumers Reaching ‘Breaking Point’

    Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The all-mighty American consumer, whose spending drives the economy, is reaching a breaking point and is on the verge of folding, according to former Walmart CEO Bill Simon.

    Bill Simon, then-president and CEO of Walmart, speaks at an event in Chicago, Ill., on June 14, 2013. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)

    Mr. Simon told CNBC in a recent interview that a series of factors—political polarization, inflation, and high interest rates—were all working together to undermine consumers and their propensity to spend.

    “That sort of pileup wears on the consumer and makes them wary,” Mr. Simon told the outlet. “For the first time in a long time, there’s a reason for the consumer to pause.”

    Consumer spending is a major driver of the U.S. economy, accounting for roughly two-thirds of gross domestic product (GDP).

    Mr. Simon, who now serves on the Board of Directors for Darden Restaurants and Hanesbrands Inc., said that, after a long period of cheap money cut short by the Federal Reserve’s rapid rate hikes in response to soaring inflation, consumers are now beginning to buckle.

    “Consumers had an incredible 10-, 12-year run,” he told CNBC’s “Fast Money” program. “Markets were buoyant. Interest rates were low. Money was available.”

    But now, the music has stopped, and the party is grinding to a halt.

    Faced with soaring inflation that remained persistently high despite predictions that the price spike would be short-lived, Fed officials have pushed the benchmark federal funds rate quickly from near zero in March 2022 to its current range of 5.25–5.5 percent.

    Despite all the monetary tightening so far, inflation remains uncomfortably high.

    The government released the latest data on inflation on Thursday, showing that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.7 percent in September, matching August’s pace. While that’s down from a recent peak of 9.1 percent in June 2022 and lower than the 8.2 percent pace a year ago, it’s still well above the Fed’s inflation target of 2 percent.

    Even though a number of Fed officials have, in recent days, suggested that the rate-hiking cycle may have reached its peak, newly released minutes detailing internal discussions during the Fed’s latest rate-setting policy meeting in September show most of them think one more rate increase is in store—followed by a period of higher interest rates for “some time.”

    The higher-for-longer interest rate environment means tighter financial conditions, marked by more expensive borrowing and reduced lending, putting a damper on economic activity. It also tends to mean less consumer spending.

    Inflation ‘Still Above Comfort Levels’

    Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate, told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement that even though inflation has fallen from its recent peak, it’s still well above many consumers’ comfort level.

    “For consumers trying to manage their personal finances amid inflation, the situation with prices is a bit like battling illness. Being past the worst of it isn’t the same as feeling better or robust,” he said.

    Many economists see a relatively high probability of a recession in the coming year, with signals like waning consumer confidence an often-cited canary in the coal mine.

    A customer checks prices while shopping at a retail store in Vernon Hills, Ill., on June 12, 2023. (Nam Y. Huh/AP Photo)

    Waning Consumer Strength?

    With persistently high inflation and a deteriorating economic outlook, September saw consumer confidence fall for the second consecutive month to hit a four-month low, according to the Conference Board.

    Also, expectations about the economic outlook over the next six months dropped below the Conference Board’s recession threshold of 80, reflecting waning confidence about business conditions, job availability, and earnings.

    “Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular. Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates,” Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board, said in a statement.

    All that consumer worry is likely to translate into reduced spending if it hasn’t already. The latest consumer spending data is for August, and it shows personal consumption expenditures (PCE) growing 0.4 percent that month, less than half of July’s pace of 0.9 percent.

    A recent survey carried out in September by CNBC-Morning Consult found that 92 percent of U.S. adults have cut back on spending over the past six months.

    Looking forward, over three-quarters of those polled said they plan to cut back on spending for non-essential items.

    Further, a recent survey of consumer expectations from the New York Federal Reserve shows that more U.S. households report being financially worse off now than they were a year ago.

    Forty-one percent of households say they’re financially worse off than a year ago, up from 40 percent in August.

    Unsurprisingly, given the Fed’s series of aggressive rate hikes and speculation that more could be in store, households’ perceptions of and expectations for credit conditions deteriorated.

    The survey also gauged consumer spending intentions one year ahead. While these remained unchanged in September at 5.3 percent, they generally fell steadily from a peak of 9.0 percent in May 2022.

    A number of large retailers, such as Target, have reported a drop in discretionary spending.

    “There is some real concern about weakness in the consumer,” Sarah Hunt, a partner at Alpine Saxon Woods, told Bloomberg TV in an interview at the end of September.

    “There’s a real spending issue coming up and I think that’s going to impact earnings.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/14/2023 – 12:50

  • France Deploys 7,000 Soldiers After Teacher Murdered; Louvre, Versailles Evacuated Over Bomb Threats
    France Deploys 7,000 Soldiers After Teacher Murdered; Louvre, Versailles Evacuated Over Bomb Threats

    France has deployed 7,000 soldiers to beef up security after a schoolteacher was stabbed to death and three others wounded, according to France’s interior minister, who said that the suspected Islamist attack was linked to the Israel-Hamas conflict.

    CRS riot police arrive to cordon off an area near the Gambetta high school in Arras, northeastern France on October 13, 2023, after a teacher was killed and two other people severely wounded in a knife attack. © Denis Charlet, AFP

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    A 20-year-old Russian-born Chechen, Mohamed M, was arrested shortly after the Friday attack at a secondary school in the northeastern city of Arras, roughly 115 miles north of Paris. According to interior minister Gerald Darmanin, who added that authorities have detained 12 people near schools or places of worship since the Hamas attack on Israel, Sky reports.

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    The teacher’s murder comes nearly three years to the day after a Chechen Muslim beheaded a French teacher on Oct. 16, 2020, near his school in a Paris suburb.

    “Three years after the assassination of Samuel Paty, terrorism has struck a school again and in a context that we all know,” said French President Emmanuel Macron.

    Of note, France has banned all pro-Palestinian protests. Despite this, hundreds of demonstrators gathered in central Paris on Thursday.

    “Pro-Palestinian demonstrations must be prohibited because they are likely to generate disturbances to the public order,” said Darmanin, who called on police to protect all locations visited by French Jews, such as synagogues and schools, and that any foreigner committing acts of anti-Semitism on French soil will be “immediately expelled.”

    Meanwhile, the Lourve and the Palace of Versailles were both evacuated over bomb threats.

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    Alarms rang out through the Louvre, a vast space also in a former royal palace Paris overlooking the Seine River, when the evacuation was announced, and in the underground shopping center beneath its signature pyramid.

    Police cordoned off the monument from all sides, and the underground access, as tourists and other visitors streamed out. Videos posted online showed people leaving, some hurriedly and some stopping to take photos, others apparently confused about what was happening. -AP

    The Lourve welcomes some 30,000 – 40,000 visitors per day.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/14/2023 – 12:15

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Oct 14

Today’s News 14th October 2023

  • Why Israel Needs A Second Amendment
    Why Israel Needs A Second Amendment

    Submitted by Aidan Johnston of Gun Owners of America,

    While insurgents were flying across the Israeli border on paragliders, a series of coordinated attacks left more than 1200 Israelis dead, many at a music festival on the Gaza border. 

    A day later, in response to the tragedy, Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir announced that the country would be taking a series of actions to loosen its strict gun control laws.

    Of course, with videos of Hamas gunmen kicking in doors in an Israeli village near the border, it’s not hard to understand why the government of Israel is starting to second-guess its strict gun control laws.

    The truth is the individual right of the people to keep and bear arms is “necessary to the security of a free state.”

    That’s something that Americans understand. There’s no need to fear an invading force of paragliders, (or any force at all, really) coming over the US border. Even if the military didn’t immediately take care of the threat, American citizens would convert their F-150s into makeshift technicals and squash the invaders with overwhelming firepower.

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    And to those who say, “That could never happen here.” Never say never.

    The ATF recently notified all FFLs in border states to be on the lookout for straw purchases of belt-fed & 50-caliber firearms.

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    Israel’s gun culture is fraught with civilian firearm restrictions. And to make matters worse, the Israel Defense Forces have spent the last few years confiscating guns from local civilian security forces.

    This confiscation has led to Israeli civilians being outgunned as they defend their homes. While Hamas terrorists invaded with machine guns, grenades, and missiles, these Israeli gun owners were forced to fight back with only a single handgun and 50 rounds of ammunition each, the maximum allowed by law.

    But while the changes in Israel’s Firearms Licensing Division will no doubt benefit self-defenders held up by bureaucracy and paperwork, those who are eligible to carry firearms under the new rules will still have “to undergo a telephone interview” and may have to wait up to “a week” for approval.

    Even then, Israeli gun owners can only purchase a meager 100 rounds of ammunition. That’s not even enough ammo for a good range day.

    As of the writing of this article, the license application portal is down, likely due to overwhelming demand.

    That means even citizens who qualify under this may-issue permitting system can’t apply for that “speedy” telephone interview.

    Instead of ammunition restrictions, waiting periods, and bureaucratic firearm licensing, Israel needs a Second Amendment protecting individuals’ right to keep and bear arms for self-defense. 

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    American politicians who sit horrified by the scenes unfolding in Israel should stop attempting to strip law-abiding citizens of their Second Amendment rights and consider the unknown number of terrorists who may have crossed the southern US border undetected. 

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    Maybe that will finally wake them up to the importance of our Second Amendment.

    *   *   *

    We’ll hold the line for you in Washington. We are No Compromise. Join the Fight Now.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/13/2023 – 23:40

  • STEM College Degrees Still Male-Dominated
    STEM College Degrees Still Male-Dominated

    Over the past decades, progress towards gender parity in varying societal and economic contexts has advanced, albeit slowly in some places.

    While, for example, literacy in females has caught up to that of their male counterparts since the 1970s, Statista’s Florian Zandt notes that many scientific fields are still heavily male-dominated. This is especially true for STEM jobs.

    Statista’s chart, based on data from the National Center for Education Statistics, shows that progress towards a more equal distribution of conferred degrees in science, technology, engineering and mathematics was barely achieved over the past ten years.

    Infographic: STEM College Degrees Still Male-Dominated | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    In the academic year ending in 2021, more than 60 percent of all bachelor’s, master’s and doctorate degrees in United States postsecondary education institutions were awarded to men. The share distribution is even more tilted towards males for tertiary education below or at associate’s degrees. The former are comprised of certificates not necessarily leading to an undergraduate degree, while the latter are typically awarded after completing community college or similar institutions. Here, 71 percent of degree holders in the academic year of 2020-21 were male. Still, associate degrees saw the most substantial shift towards a more equitable distribution over the past ten years, while the share of doctorate degrees awarded to females in STEM studies remained virtually the same.

    Overall, around 800,000 STEM degrees were conferred in the academic year of 2020-21, an increase of 42 percent compared to ten years prior.

    In terms of total associate’s, bachelor’s, master’s and doctorate degrees awarded in the United States in 2021, STEM degrees account for around 20 percent.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/13/2023 – 23:20

  • A New "Brave New World"
    A New “Brave New World”

    Authored by Raw Egg Nationalist via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    For the past century, it’s been a mainstay of the science-fiction genre: the medicated society—a society in which the majority of the population is given some form of drug to alter their behaviour, ostensibly for the better.

    (Lapina/Shutterstock)

    The most famous example of the genre is, of course, Aldous Huxley’s novel “Brave New World,” published in 1932. In Huxley’s vision of the 26th century, the drug Soma is used to ensure the obedience of the lower classes of a “perfect” eugenic world where people are bred specifically for the social function they perform.

    More recently, in the Christian Bale film “Equilibrium” (2002), the citizens of a totalitarian city-state must take an emotion-killing drug as a means to prevent war. Those who refuse to take the drug, called Prozium, are labeled “sense offenders” and are violently hunted down and sentenced to death by a special caste of “clerics.” Art, literature, and any expression of human emotion and creativity are prohibited.

    Science-fiction writers return again and again to these scenarios because they raise fundamental questions about the nature of authority and social control. In doing so, they also ask us to question what it is that makes us truly human.

    Would it be desirable to eliminate human imperfection with something as simple as a pill? Would the loss of certain “negative” or “destructive” aspects of our humanity be justified by the net gain to social order and the reduction in suffering? And would it be better to try to persuade ordinary people to surrender these aspects of themselves voluntarily for the greater good, or would an “enlightened” class of rulers have every reason to force people to do so, perhaps even without their knowledge?

    The dramatization and the fictional settings shouldn’t blind us to the fact that such possibilities are very real. Very real—and very close. Just how close has been revealed by new figures from Public Health Scotland, which show that more than a million men and women, close to a quarter of Scotland’s adult population, are now being prescribed anti-depressants, powerful drugs with wide-ranging effects on mood and physical health. This probably makes Scotland the nation with the highest rate of anti-depressant use in the world. In the United States, by contrast, around 15 percent of adults are on anti-depressants, which is still, by any metric, a lot.

    It’s not just anti-depressants that Scots are swallowing in record numbers. According to figures published by the Mail on Sunday, more than a third of Scottish adults are now being prescribed drugs from one of five broad classes associated with mental health issues. This includes a further 200,000 adults taking benzodiazepines, which are prescribed for anxiety and insomnia, and 190,000 who take gabapentinoids. Another 130,000 adults are given so-called z-drugs (such as zopiclone and zolpidem), and more than 800,000 are on opioid-based pain medication.

    A situation like this doesn’t emerge overnight. It’s taken decades for Scotland to reach this point. The problem was already bad enough in 2007, when the ruling Scottish National Party (SNP) first came to power, that the government made a pledge to reduce the country’s dependency on anti-depressants. Instead, the figures have risen every year since. By 2010, 630,000 adults were taking anti-depressants, and an extra 390,000 were added over the next 12 years. There’s no reason to believe the trend won’t continue.

    Politicians are now asking serious questions. Conservative Member of the Scottish Parliament Maurice Golden told the Mail on Sunday: “The sheer number of prescriptions being issued for depression and anxiety in Scotland is astonishing. The fact it has risen so considerably requires urgent and serious attention from the Scottish Government.

    “There was a time when the SNP pledged to reduce the rise in these prescriptions, but it has only ever gone in this direction since.”

    So why is this happening? A representative from Scotland’s Royal College of Psychiatrists, Dr. Jane Morris, suggested it may simply be due to increased public knowledge of mental health issues and the treatments on offer.

    “We’d like to think public education and awareness of the treatability of mental illness means that more people are coming forward,” she told the Mail on Sunday.

    On this view, the number of people suffering from depression would be fixed, more or less: All that actually changes is how many people decide to seek treatment. We’re supposed to conclude, then, that at least a quarter of the adult population of Scotland has always been depressed. You don’t need to be an expert to have serious doubts that this could ever actually be the case. Dr. Morris did at least acknowledge that “increased prescribing may now reflect a rise in Scotland’s need for mental health treatment.”

    Getting to the bottom of the problem is likely to prove difficult. And the difficulties are only made more acute by the fact that anti-depressants don’t really work.

    The state of depression research is shockingly limited. Even after decades of scientific study, there’s still no evidence that the dominant chemical explanation for depression—serotonin deficiency—is true. And yet the doctors of Scotland, and doctors throughout the Western world, continue prescribing selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (“SSRIs”) on the assumption that serotonin levels are the issue.

    Many studies have shown that anti-depressants are barely more effective at improving mood than placebo. The improvement is so small that some scientists argue it’s really non-existent. Access to these minimal benefits is also unevenly distributed among users. A large-scale meta-analysis in the British Medical Journal, considering data from 232 studies of anti-depressant use dating back to 1979, showed that just 15 percent of users experienced an improvement they would not have derived from the placebo, with the remaining 85 percent gaining no benefit from their use.

    Those who should supposedly benefit the most from anti-depressants—sufferers of severe depression, comorbid anxiety, and suicidal thoughts—may actually benefit the least from their use. Most clinical trials of anti-depressants deliberately exclude these people, resulting in misleading claims being directed at the drugs’ main target consumers.

    If Scotland is facing an enormous mental health crisis, and there’s no reason to believe it isn’t, anti-depressants are unlikely to be the answer. Their blanket use is just complicating matters further. Not least of all because they introduce a range of unpleasant side-effects, ranging from widely publicized loss of libido and sexual function, to gastrointestinal problems, dizziness, insomnia, headaches, loss of or increase in appetite, and even suicidal ideation and self-harm, especially in the early stages of use.

    But, more fundamentally, our reliance on drugs that don’t really even work is preventing us from understanding the root causes of depression and devising new ways—real ways that work—to address them.

    This is a textbook case of what the philosopher Ivan Illich called “iatrogenesis,” or “medically caused harm.” In his famous book “Medical Nemesis” (1975), Illich argued that the growing medicalization of society is having the paradoxical effect of making us less and less well. In particular, what medicalization does, according to Illich, is reduce our capacity to respond to our problems of health and well-being in suitable ways.

    When we see illness simply as an issue to be solved by technical interventions—with pills, injections, and surgery—administered to us by an anointed class of experts, we lose the ability to see illness on any other terms, as anything else. Like, for example, the product of a mismatch between our nature as human beings, stretching back 200,000+ years, and the very different social world we now inhabit. There’s no pill or surgery that can cure that.

    I make the case repeatedly in my work that the modern industrial diet, consisting of more and more processed food, and our unprecedented exposure to harmful industrial chemicals are making us deeply unwell, including causing a precipitous decline in markers of reproductive health such as sperm counts and testosterone levels. I think depression is part and parcel of this too. In the last few weeks, new research has shown, for instance, that consumption of processed food, especially products containing artificial sweeteners, can increase depression risk by up to 50 percent, and that elevated exposure to phthalates, a class of ubiquitous chemicals found in everything from personal-care products to plastic bottles, can significantly increase the risk of post-partum depression in new mothers.

    There’s still much investigation to be done of what’s clearly a very complex issue. But we would be fools not to heed the warnings of the thinkers who have shown us, on the page and on the screen, the dangers of a world of total medication. If we really want to do something about the massive rise in depression, in Scotland or anywhere else, we must face the possibility of a new Brave New World: one in which pills are not the answer to all our problems.

    Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/13/2023 – 23:00

  • China's Birth Rate Plummets 10% To Lowest On Record
    China’s Birth Rate Plummets 10% To Lowest On Record

    China’s birthrate fell 10% last year to its lowest level on record, a significant drop in spite of extensive efforts by the CCP to encourage people to get busy.

    Children play outside a cafe in Beijing, China. (AFP)

    The country had just 9.56 million births in 2022, the lowest figure since they began keeping records in 1949, according to a report by the National Health Commission.

    The high costs of child care and education, growing unemployment and job insecurity as well as gender discrimination have all helped to deter many young couples from having more than one child or even having children at all. -NBC News

    China’s population also fell for the first time in six decades, dropping to 1.41 billion people – a demographic shift that’s caused officials to worry that the country will ‘get old before it gets rich’ – with a slowing economy and declining tax receipts amid increases in government debt due to soaring health and welfare costs.

    According to the report, the demographic downturn is largely thanks to China’s one-child policy imposed between 1980 and 2015. Nearly 40% of Chinese babies last year were the second child of a married couple, while 15% were from families with three or more children.

    The sharp decline in births comes despite Beijing’s efforts to increase child care and provide other financial incentives. In May, President Xi Jinping presided over a panel to study the topic.

    Not just China

    As we noted in June, Japan’s birth rate has also plummeted to a record low for the seventh straight year, with the number of babies born falling below 800,000 this year, health ministry data showed on June 2.

    The number of newborns in Japan fell to 770,747 this year, down 40,875 from the previous year and the lowest since the country began record-keeping in 1899, Kyodo News reported, citing health ministry data.

    Japan’s fertility rate—the average number of children born to a woman in her lifetime—fell from 1.30 in 2021 to 1.26 last year, equivalent to the previous low recorded in 2005. The number is far below the 2.07 rate necessary to sustain a stable population.

    The decline in Japan’s birth rate is attributed to people delaying parenthood due to the economic impact brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the prevailing trend among couples to delay marriage, according to the report.

    The US birthrate has also been in decline, falling slightly in 2022 compared to 2021, with roughly 3.7 million babies born nationwide. It still hasn’t recovered to pre-pandemic levels according to the CDC.

    And as Mike Shedlock noted two years ago.

    More via Mish Talk, worth a review:

    The Pandemic Caused a Baby Bust, Not a Boom

    Scientific American reports The Pandemic Caused a Baby Bust, Not a Boom

    When the COVID pandemic led to widespread economic shutdowns and stay-at-home orders in the spring of 2020, many media outlets and pundits speculated this might lead to a baby boom. But it appears the opposite has happened: birth rates declined in many high-income countries amid the crisis, a new study shows.

    Arnstein Aassve, a professor of social and political sciences at Bocconi University in Italy, and his colleagues looked at birth rates in 22 high-income countries, including the U.S., from 2016 through the beginning of 2021. They found that seven of these countries had statistically significant declines in birth rates in the final months of 2020 and first months of 2021, compared with the same period in previous years. Hungary, Italy, Spain and Portugal had some of the largest drops: reductions of 8.5, 9.1, 8.4 and 6.6 percent, respectively. The U.S. saw a decline of 3.8 percent, but this was not statistically significant—perhaps because the pandemic’s effects were more spread out in the country and because the study only had U.S. data through December 2020, Aassve says. The findings were published on Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA.

    Birth rates fluctuate seasonally within a year, and many of the countries in the study had experienced falling rates for years before the pandemic. But the declines that began nine months after the World Health Organization declared a public health emergency on January 30, 2020, were even more stark. “We are very confident that the effect for those countries is real,” Aassve says. “Even though they might have had a bit of a mild downward trend [before], we’re pretty sure about the fact that there was an impact of the pandemic.”

    Covid Accelerated the Existing Trend

    Covid accelerated the already declining birth rates. 

    Given the 16-year lag between births and the civilian noninstitutional population coupled with the aging of the workforce there will be fewer and fewer workers supporting retired workers on Social Security. 

    Notice the relatively steep decline in the birth rate starting in 2008 and continuing through today. 

    That impact will start showing up in 2024 and last a minimum of 12 years.

    How long depends on whether the birth rate picks up after Covid. I highly doubt the birth rate will pick up.

    Deflationary and Inflationary Impacts

    1. Inflationary: Shortage of workers increases wage pressures
    2. Deflationary: Fewer workers support an increasing number of retirees
    3. Deflationary: Older workers need more assistance, buy fewer things, travel less. 
    4. Deflationary: More government debt and deficits. Government spending has a negative impact on real GDP.

    *  *  *

    Time for another sexual revolution?

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/13/2023 – 22:40

  • California Bans Student Suspensions For Defying Teachers, Disrupting Classes
    California Bans Student Suspensions For Defying Teachers, Disrupting Classes

    Authored by Sophie Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    It will be illegal for California public schools to suspend students for disrupting class or defying teachers—known as willful defiance suspensions—starting July 1, 2024.

    “With Governor Newsom’s signing of SB 274, California is putting the needs of students first,” bill author Sen. Nancy Skinner (D-Berkeley) said in a statement a day after the governor’s signing Oct. 8. “No more kicking kids out of school for minor disruptions. Students belong in school where they can succeed.”

    A class at Stark Elementary School in Stamford, Conn., on March 10, 2021. (John Moore/Getty Images)

    SB 274—an extension of the author’s previous legislation from 2019 that banned willful defiance suspensions for TK–5 students permanently and for grades 6–8 until 2025—now broadens such policy to include all public-school grades from TK–12 across the state, with a sunset date of July 1, 2029.

    Traditionally, willful defiance suspensions have been imposed on students for disrupting school activities, including wearing hats backward, nodding off in class, using bad language in school, or engaging in verbal disagreements with teachers, Ms. Skinner’s office said in the statement.

    Under the new law, teachers can remove a student from class for unruly behavior, but the youth would not be suspended from school. Instead, school administrators would be responsible for evaluating and implementing suitable in-school interventions or support for the student, according to the senator’s office.

    Additionally, the bill prohibits the suspension or expulsion of students due to tardiness or truancy.

    “The punishment for missing school should not be to miss more school,” Ms. Skinner said in an earlier press release after the bill passed the California Assembly and Senate.

    According to Ms. Skinner, suspending students could potentially lead to them dropping out of school.

    “Suspending students, no matter the age, doesn’t improve student behavior, and it greatly increases the likelihood that the student will fail or drop out,” she said in the Oct. 9 statement.

    Additionally, the senator’s office said that such suspensions have been “disproportionately directed at students of color, LGBTQ students, students who are homeless or in foster care, and those with disabilities.”

    According to Ms. Skinner’s office, a 2018 report shows that such suspensions accounted for 21 percent of all suspensions involving black male students in middle schools in California and 26 percent in high schools.

    However, opponents of the bill have said that it would create more chaos in schools.

    Davina Keiser, a former teacher with four decades of teaching experience in the Long Beach Unified School District, told The Epoch Times in a previous interview that disruptive behavior was “detrimental to the learning of everybody else in the classroom.”

    “It’s almost like a license for the rest of the kids to go ahead and misbehave,” she said.

    Ms. Keiser still works as a substitute teacher for the district and is the president of the education nonprofit Del Rey Education.

    Lance Christensen, the vice president of the California Policy Center, an educational nonprofit that focuses on policy and government affairs, said that such bills could lead to a loss of teacher resources in the public education system.

    “I’ve warned about the dire consequences of public school classes without discipline,” Mr. Christensen wrote on X. “The governor just signed SB 274 which will exacerbate the havoc in our schools by stripping teachers & principals of tools to deal with ‘willfully defiant’ kids. Expect more teachers to resign.”

    Micaela Ricaforte contributed to this report.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/13/2023 – 22:20

  • Trump's Unflattering Story About Netanyahu Elicits Outrage From Republican Rivals
    Trump’s Unflattering Story About Netanyahu Elicits Outrage From Republican Rivals

    Republican rivals of former President Donald Trump have lashed out at the GOP front-runner for telling a story about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu which put him in a negative light and suggested he’s ‘weak’ at a sensitive moment. 

    It happened Wednesday night at a campaign rally. Trump was recounting the events and hours leading up to his decision to kill top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in a 2020 drone strike outside the Baghdad airport. Trump told a cheering crowd that the Israeli prime minister “let us down” by backing out of participation in the covert operation at the last minute. Watch:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Trump also controversially said this week Israeli leaders need to “step up their game” as Netanyahu “was not prepared” for the deadly Saturday raid into southern Israel. He further called Hezbollah “very smart” while generally urging Israel to be more prepared and efficient. He had at one point called Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant a “jerk”.

    Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, chief among Trump’s 2024 rivals for the Republican presidential nomination, blasted the somewhat impulsive words, saying “Now is not the time to be attacking our ally,” – especially as the Israeli bodies and missing are still being counted. 

    DeSantis also admitted that while “there’s a lot of people that generally like Trump’s policies,” they are not “big fans” of his behavior, in a swipe at the story about Soleimani’s death. 

    But it was Chris Christie, also in the 2024 race, who went even more on the attack, calling Trump “a fool”. 

    “Only a fool would make those kinds of comments. Only a fool would give comments that give aid and comfort to Israel’s adversary in this situation, and he always places it in the context of himself,” the former New Jersey governor said.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “This is someone who cares not about the American people, not about the people of Israel, but he cares about one person and one person only: The person he sees in the mirror when he wakes up in the morning,” Christie continued. “As a Republican Party, we cannot once again nominate a fool like this to be our nominee and get him anywhere near the presidency of the United States.”

    Jewish groups also weren’t happy:

    Ari Fleischer, the former White House press secretary who serves on the board of the Republican Jewish Coalition, said he wished Trump would “let his personal grievances with Bibi, whatever they are, slide for now.”

    And here’s Trump’s own former Vice President weighing in…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Journalist Max Blumenthal offered his opinion on Trump’s words, saying “Every US President has hated Netanyahu, regarding him as a conniving fanatic. But only Trump said out loud what Obama was overheard saying on a hot mic and Clinton said in private.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/13/2023 – 22:00

  • The Movie Disney And China Don’t Want You To See
    The Movie Disney And China Don’t Want You To See

    Authored by Jonathan Miltmore via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Few directors in Hollywood have more power than Martin Scorsese, the Oscar-winning director of box office hits such as “Goodfellas,” “Casino,” “The Departed,” and “The Wolf of Wall Street.”

    (L-R) Actor Richard Gere, director Martin Scorsese, the Dalai Lama, and producer and screenwriter Melissa Mathison hold hands at the end of a brief meeting with reporters prior to a speech by the Dalai Lama at an awards ceremony in New York on April 30, 1998. The ceremony honored Mr. Scorsese and Ms. Mathison for their work on the film ‘Kundun.’ (Matt Campbell/AFP via Getty Images)

    But even the legendary filmmaker lacked the clout to save the fate of his movie “Kundun” (1997) when the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) came knocking on Disney’s door.

    The film is probably one that most readers have never heard of, even though it was nominated for four Academy Awards and included the legendary Mr. Scorsese. A historical drama written by Melissa Mathison, “Kundun” explores the life of the young Dalai Lama, who in 1950 saw his homeland of Tibet invaded by the CCP.

    Ms. Mathison conceived the project after meeting the Dalai Lama in 1990, and although she had concerns that Hollywood wouldn’t be interested in such a film, she caught a break when she convinced Mr. Scorsese to direct the film.

    “I’m not saying he wants to do it, but I know he’s going to get it,” Ms. Mathison recalled thinking. “I knew he’d understand the society, the moral code, the journey, and the spirituality of it,” she said in the documentary “In Search of Kundun with Martin Scorsese.”

    Disney eventually agreed to distribute the film, which was given a $28 million budget. But China had other ideas.

    Tibet, along with Taiwan and Tiananmen, is among the forbidden Three Ts—the issues considered most contentious by the CCP. So with China becoming an emerging global power in the 1990s, the CCP decided to flex its muscle and attempted to nix the project.

    Two days into the production of “Kundun” in 1996, a representative from the Chinese Embassy approached Disney’s chief strategic officer, Lawrence Murphy.

    “You started shooting a film in Morocco about the Dalai Lama called ‘Kundun,’” the diplomat said before explaining that Beijing had concerns with the film’s subject matter.

    ‘Play by China’s Rules’ … or Else

    At the time, Mr. Murphy hadn’t even heard of the film. But it would soon become clear that the CCP wanted the shooting of “Kundun” shut down. Why Beijing would want the movie censored is obvious. “Kundun” describes atrocities that China’s communist regime committed in the 1950s following its invasion of the Himalayan country.

    “The Chinese have bombed the monastery of Lithang. It has been destroyed,” an adviser tells the Dalai Lama at one point in the movie. “Nuns and monks are made to fornicate in the streets. They put guns in the hands of Khumba children and force the child to kill the parents.”

    While the description is horrifying, even more moving is the scene in which an elderly Tibetan woman tearfully and frantically insists that she’s “happy and prosperous under the Chinese Communist Party.”

    This isn’t exactly flattering stuff for the CCP, any more than “Schindler’s List” is for the Nazis. Yet history isn’t always pretty.

    In any event, the CCP’s decision to lean on the film left Disney CEO Michael Eisner in a pickle.

    If Mr. Eisner shut down the film, he’d anger Mr. Scorsese and look weak for caving to the CCP. If he proceeded with production, he risked losing Disney’s commercial and manufacturing foothold in China, as well as the 1.4 billion potential consumers.

    So Mr. Eisner opted for a third way. He allowed the shooting of “Kundun” to proceed, but he limited the film’s distribution and marketing. “Kundun” was released on Christmas Day in 1997—in two theaters nationwide.

    In other words, in the contest over truth and creative freedom versus government censorship, Disney blinked, and film producer Matt Tabor describes what Disney’s decision meant going forward.

    “If foreign companies wanted access to [China’s] market, they were going to play by China’s rules,” Mr. Tabor noted in a recent production by the Foundation for Economic Education on the showdown. “’Kundun’ marked the first opportunity for China to flex that muscle in the movie business.”

    It was a watershed moment. And if there was any doubt that Disney caved to China, which officially considered the film “an interference in China’s internal affairs,” one need only read the groveling message that Disney sent to China after the dust had settled a year later.

    The Apology: ‘We Made a Stupid Mistake’

    Despite “sending ‘Kundun’ quietly to the gulag,” Disney found itself kicked out of China’s burgeoning market, along with other U.S. film studios.

    “These films are full of inaccuracies,” a Chinese official told The Washington Post. “That’s why they are not popular within China.”

    “We made a stupid mistake in releasing ‘Kundun.’ This film was a form of insult to our friends. The bad news is that the film was made; the good news is that nobody watched it. Here I want to apologize, and in the future, we should prevent this sort of thing, which insults our friends, from happening. In short, we’re a family entertainment company, a company that uses silly ways to amuse people.”

    Mr. Eisner’s complete capitulation would have a profound impact on the global entertainment landscape for years to come. It explains why “Kundun” can’t be streamed on Amazon or Netflix even today. It explains why NBA executives go apoplectic when a single general manager tweets his support of protesters in Hong Kong.

    One can appreciate the tough situation that Mr. Eisner was in without agreeing with his decision to banish “Kundun” to Siberia. Companies have commercial interests, and balancing those against doing the right thing or supporting creative expression isn’t always easy. Indeed, this balancing act existed before Disney banished “Kundun,” evidenced by one executive’s stated reason for passing on the film.

    “I don’t need to have my spirits and wine business thrown out of China,” Edgar Bronfman Jr.—the CEO of Seagram, which briefly owned Universal Pictures—replied when pitched on “Kundun.”

    Yet, the message of Disney’s showdown with China isn’t really about the ethics of dealing with a powerful communist regime. The real lesson is that we should prevent governments from amassing such dictatorial power in the first place, and remind ourselves that governments are hardly arbiters of truth. Indeed, if the past few years have taught us anything, it’s that government officials have no business deciding what’s true and what’s false—even though it’s a power they clearly desire.

    The reality is that those who wish to censor speech are usually far more interested in power than truth—the CCP’s attempt to censor “Kundun” reinforces that idea—and reminds us that sometimes the best way to exercise freedom is to watch a movie they don’t want you to see.

    Matt Tabor contributed to this article.

    Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/13/2023 – 21:40

  • What Does Strong El Niño Mean For Winter Activity Across US? 
    What Does Strong El Niño Mean For Winter Activity Across US? 

    NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 75% to 85% chance of a ‘strong El Niño‘ between November and January. This weather phenomenon has led to more winter activity in parts of the US.

    Courtesy of The Weather Channel, here are the main highlights of CPC’s report:  

    • Forecasters from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center still favor a strong El Niño late this fall into winter, or a 75-85% chance from November through January. That means the seasonal average of sea-surface temperatures in a certain region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean would be at or above the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than average.

    • NOAA says there is an 80% chance El Niño will last through spring (March-May).

    • There is 3-in-10 chance this event could warm even further and become historically strong, or a so-called super El Niño, which means sea-surface temperatures would cross the 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than average threshold. There have been three super El Niño winters since 1950 in 2015-16, 1997-98 and 1982-83.

    Here are the El Niño impacts across the US, including temperatures and rain/snow patterns: 

    Current El Niño strength versus ‘super El Niños’ that have formed over the decades – many of these super El Niños have resulted in major snowstorms across the Lower 48. 

    Local media outlet KUNC in Greeley, Colorado, spoke with Stephen Yeager, a project scientist with the center’s Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, who highlighted the shifting weather patterns in the US because of El Niño and what it means this winter: 

    “The United States tends to get wetter and colder in the south, from California all the way across to Florida, whereas the northern part of the country from the state of Washington and across tends to be drier and warmer than normal,” Yeager said. “States in the middle, like Colorado, don’t have very strong connections to El Niño that are consistent.”

    The new El Niño event could either diminish or boost winter snowfall significantly, depending on how the weather pattern develops.

    “We might see more snowfall sort of in the southern mountains of Colorado, maybe the southwest,” Yeager said. “It’s unclear exactly how far north that impact will reach. Whether we’ll get a really epic snow year is hard to say, but I would say there’s a potential to see extreme winter weather in one direction or another.”

    Yeager said this winter’s event is expected to be comparable to the major El Niño of 1997 and 1998, one of the most powerful in history. That event caused massive flooding, drought, and other natural disasters at the time. The 1997-98 El Niño peaked at a three-month average of +2.4 degrees Celsius on the Niño 3.4 Index.

    But Yeager said when it comes to the center’s predictions, he makes no promises.

    “Only time will tell if we’re accurate,” Yeager said. “But we believe our system has something to offer, and we’re excited to be able to contribute this knowledge to the conversation going on right now about the impacts El Niño may have in the coming months.”

    At the beginning of the month, we cited one US meteorological analyst who said: “This is not a typical year. The 2023-2024 winter season is going to be very different” due to “2023-2024 winter is an El Nino pattern.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/13/2023 – 21:20

  • Animal Contraceptive And Antibiotics Detected In Top 10 Popular Fast Foods: Report
    Animal Contraceptive And Antibiotics Detected In Top 10 Popular Fast Foods: Report

    Authored by Marina Zhang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Two types of animal antibiotics and an animal contraceptive have been detected in food samples from America’s top 10 most popular fast-food chains, according to a laboratory report.

    (TotallyBlond/Shutterstock)

    In September, Moms Across America (MAA) submitted food samples from 10 popular American food chains to the Health Research Institute, an Iowa-based nonprofit laboratory that tests food for nutritional value, biofunctionality, and contaminants and toxins, requesting that the laboratory test the samples for over 100 common veterinary drugs and hormones. MAA is a nonprofit activism group formed by mothers intending to bring awareness to food that contains genetically modified organisms (GMOs) and pesticides.

    Molecular and chief scientist at the Health Research Institute, John Fagan, confirmed that his lab tested the food samples.

    8 in 10 Popular Fast Food Chains Tested Positive

    Most of the food was sampled from America’s top 10 most popular food chains. Volunteers for MAA went to their local McDonald’s, Starbucks, Subway, Chick-fil-A, Burger King, Taco Bell, Chipotle, Dunkin’, Wendy’s, or Domino’s stores and ordered the same meal several times.

    Kept in its packaging, each meal was sealed, frozen, and mailed to the Health Research Institute.

    At the laboratory, the food and its packaging were ground up and then tested for veterinary drugs and hormones.

    With the exception of Chipotle and Subway, all the food samples tested positive for veterinary drugs.

    Monensin, Narasin, and Nicarbazin

    The drug concentrations in all of the food samples were below 2 micrograms per kilogram, which is significantly below the Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) acceptable daily intake.

    Mr. Fagan highlighted that the FDA’s acceptable intake levels are meaningful for checking acute poisoning. Yet in the case of fast food, which some people consume daily, there is a concern of chronic poisoning due to accumulation of toxins. 

    Monensin

    Less than 0.5 microgram per kilogram of the antibiotic monensin was detected in Taco Bell, Dunkin’, Wendy’s, Domino’s, Burger King, and McDonald’s.

    The acceptable daily intake for monensin is 12.5 micrograms per kilogram of body weight per day. 

    The antibiotic monensin was detected in Taco Bell, Dunkin’, Wendy’s, Domino’s, Burger King, and McDonald’s.

    Monensin is a commonly used veterinary antibiotic with a slim margin of safety. Side effects of monensin in animals include anorexia, diarrhea, weakness, and motor problems. Overdose can cause an animal’s poisoning or even death.

    Monensin poisoning is rare in humans, and there is no effective treatment used in clinical practice.

    One case occurred in a man who ingested 300 milligrams of monensin, leading to severe rhabdomyolysis, or a breakdown of muscle tissue. This medical condition is quite severe and can lead to damaged heart and kidneys.

    The dose that man ingested, however, is a million times higher than the microgram doses detected in the food samples.

    Narasin

    Less than 2 micrograms per kilogram of narasin was detected in a Wendy’s cheeseburger. It was also found in trace amounts in a meal from Dunkin’, Domino’s, and a Starbucks sandwich.

    The acceptable daily intake for narasin is 5 micrograms per kilogram of body weight per day.

    Narasin is an antibiotic and antiparasitic feed additive that helps control parasitic infections in fattened chicken. It is also often added to cattle feed, as it increases dry matter intake. Both narasin and monensin are ionophores, meaning they can disturb the balance of ions in cells and are often used in animals to control bacterial and parasitic infections.

    Side effects of narasin in animals include anorexia, diarrhea, and degeneration of heart and skeletal muscles.

    These antibiotic ionophores are not used in humans due to concerns of toxicity, though there are few cases of documented toxicity from these drugs.

    Nicarbazin

    Nicarbazin, an animal antiparasitic and contraceptive, was detected in the Chick-fil-A chicken sandwich sample. Less than 0.5 microgram per kilogram of nicarbazin was detected.

    The acceptable daily intake for nicarbazin is 200 micrograms per kilogram of body weight per day.

    The drug is primarily used as an antiparasitic drug in fattened chickens and turkeys, but it has also been used for population control of geese and pigeons.

    Since it is highly toxic to agricultural embryos and decreases egg laying and hatching among grown poultry populations, many farmers have called for more regulations to protect their animals from such exposures.

    To date, no reports have shown that nicarbazin causes toxic effects in humans, though its long-term ramifications are unknown. One research report assumed that nicarbazin would be safe for consumers since most turkeys fed the drug would act as a filter, breaking down the drug before it reached the market.

    “The impact of millions of Americans, especially children and young adults, consuming a known animal contraceptive daily is concerning,” said Zen Honeycutt, MAA’s executive director. “With infertility problems on the rise, the reproductive health of this generation is front and center for us, in light of these results.”

    Few studies have investigated the effects of veterinary drugs in humans.

    “That’s the problem,” Ms. Honeycutt told The Epoch Times. “These are veterinary drugs and hormones … so the only studies that I have found and that you will find will be for animals. [They’re] not authorized for humans, and yet they’re being allowed [into the food supply].

    “Some people are consuming this food every day, so we don’t know how much they are accumulating in their body,” Ms. Honeycutt added.

    Are All Fast Food Chain Stores Affected?

    Since each food sample was bought from only one store per fast-food chain, Ms. Honeycutt said that they would need to do more tests to know if all other chains served food containing similar veterinary drugs.

    However, she was suspicious that other chains may also be affected.

    “My understanding is that they’re grinding the meat up of hundreds of birds in order to make these processed meat patties. So when one is contaminated, it likely contaminates possibly hundreds of other samples … If one comes down with this particular disease, then the farmer will likely treat any of the birds at a facility,” Ms. Honeycutt said.

    When asked about potential package contamination, Mr. Fagan from the Health Research Institute said that the packages came from different states across the United States, so while one package might be contaminated, it would be difficult for all of them to be contaminated.

    The MAA previously tested 43 school lunches provided by participants. Lab tests found that 95 percent of the lunches had glyphosate, and 74 percent contained at least one harmful pesticide.

    Glyphosate is a weed killer, and childhood exposure to glyphosate has been linked to the development of diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer, including non-Hodgkin lymphoma.

    Thiabendazole, an immune suppressant, was detected in around 30 percent of the samples, and a developmental toxin was found in over 40 percent of them.

    The Epoch Times reached out to the fast-food chains reported in this article for comment.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/13/2023 – 21:00

  • Ancient Solar Storm Discovered In Tree Rings Reveals 'Catastrophic' Event 14,000 Years Ago
    Ancient Solar Storm Discovered In Tree Rings Reveals ‘Catastrophic’ Event 14,000 Years Ago

    A new study, based on the analysis of growth rings in ancient trees, suggests that the most powerful solar storm on record slammed into Earth approximately 14,300 years ago. Should a storm of that intensity strike today, modern society would instantly collapse. 

    Researchers from the Collège de France, CEREGE, IMBE, Aix-Marseille University, and the University of Leeds published the new study in the Royal Society A journal. They measured radiocarbon levels in ancient trees preserved within the eroded banks of the Drouzet River near Gap, in the Southern French Alps, and found “tree trunks, which are subfossils – remains whose fossilization process is not complete – were sliced into tiny single tree-rings. Analysis of these individual rings identified an unprecedented spike in radiocarbon levels occurring precisely 14,300 years ago.” 

    They said, “By comparing this radiocarbon spike with measurements of beryllium, a chemical element found in Greenland ice cores, the team proposes that the spike was caused by a massive solar storm that would have ejected huge volumes of energetic particles into Earth’s atmosphere.” 

    “Radiocarbon is constantly being produced in the upper atmosphere through a chain of reactions initiated by cosmic rays.” Edouard Bard, lead author of the study, said in a statement.

    Bard said, “Recently, scientists have found that extreme solar events including solar flares and coronal mass ejections can also create short-term bursts of energetic particles which are preserved as huge spikes in radiocarbon production occurring over the course of just a single year.” 

    The researchers warned if “similar massive solar storms” slammed into Earth today, it would be “catastrophic for modern technological society, potentially wiping out telecommunications, satellite systems and electricity grids.” 

    The study’s co-author, Tim Heaton, a radiocarbon expert at the University of Leeds in England, explained, “Extreme solar storms could have huge impacts on Earth. Such super storms could permanently damage the transformers in our electricity grids, resulting in huge and widespread blackouts lasting months. They could also result in permanent damage to the satellites that we all rely on for navigation and telecommunication, leaving them unusable. They would also create severe radiation risks to astronauts.” 

    Researchers said nine extreme solar storms – known as Miyake Events – have been identified over the last 15,000 years. The last known major solar storm fried telegraph machines in 1859 – has been called the “Carrington Event.” 

    Solar Cycle 25 has been underway since April 2019 and might peak sometime in 2025. In December 2022, the total number of sunspots was at its highest in eight years, indicating solar activity has ramped up. Earlier this year, scientists observed twice as many sunspots — red flags that solar maximum could be nearing.

    Readers have been well-informed about what an ‘X-class’ flare could do to modern society:

    Forget the climate change narrative pushed by corporate media. Focus on how to protect the grid from major solar storms… 

    The world needs to prepare for the next big solar storm. Remember, in 2016, former President Obama signed an executive order titled “Coordinating Efforts to Prepare the Nation for Space Weather Events.”  

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/13/2023 – 20:40

  • GOP Lawmaker Flies To Israel To Rescue Americans After 'Ton of Requests'
    GOP Lawmaker Flies To Israel To Rescue Americans After ‘Ton of Requests’

    Authored by Lorenz Duchamps via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.), a U.S. Army combat veteran, has gone to Israel to aid with the evacuation of stranded American citizens after Hamas terrorists launched attacks on its territory.

    Representative-elect Cory Mills (R-Fla.) arrives at the Hyatt Regency in Washington, on Nov. 13, 2022. (Nathan Howard/Getty Images)

    A picture shared by former Rep. Mayra Flores on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, shows the Iraq veteran with a group of Americans he helped escape Israel by bus.

    “My friend … is currently on the ground in Israel, helping to evacuate American citizens who are trapped,” Ms. Flores wrote. “May God keep them safe as they continue their rescue efforts!”

    In an interview with Fox News on Wednesday, Mr. Mills said that he has already helped 32 Americans to escape the country, adding that he’s hoping to make another trip on Thursday.

    “Since the Biden admin has failed to do their job once again, I’ve stepped in to rescue Americans stranded in war-torn Israel,” the Florida Republican said in a post on X.

    The GOP lawmaker noted that he couldn’t get into the specifics of the operation because of safety reasons.

    It isn’t the first time Mr. Mills, who served in Iraq with the 82nd Airborne Division, has embarked on such a trip. He also helped to evacuate American families and Afghan refugees in Afghanistan amid the chaotic U.S. troop withdrawal in August 2021.

    “Unfortunately, this isn’t my first time doing this because my team and I actually had conducted the very first successful overland rescue out of Afghanistan … that rescued a mother and three children from Amarillo, Texas,” Mr. Mills told the network.

    “Right now, our big tactic is to try and look at consolidation points,” he added. “My team and I run the routes prematurely, so we can try and just make sure we can run it and see if there’s any safety issues and look at the best evac areas. Doing predominantly just ground evacs and getting to bordering countries like Jordan to ensure that we can get them back to America.”

    Mr. Mills’s trip to Israel comes as a bipartisan group of 146 members of Congress recently called on U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to use all available resources, including chartering flights, to evacuate Americans seeking to leave Israel amid the ongoing war.

    Numerous airlines have already halted flights to and from Israel due to the conflict, which saw days of rocket fire and missile barrages between the Hamas terrorist group and the Israeli military, some of which have hit Ben Gurion International Airport.

    US in Talks to Evacuate Americans

    National Security Council coordinator John Kirby, meanwhile, said at a White House press briefing on Oct. 11 that they’re in “active conversations” about how to bring Americans, many of whom are dual citizens, back home safely. However, he fell short of providing a plan or specifics of what has been decided upon.

    “The State Department is an [sic] active touch with American citizens in Israel,” he said in a transcript of the briefing. “And we want to make sure—right now, there are still commercial carriers—not all, some—flying in and out of Ben Gurion every day. There are still now viable ground routes. If you wanted to leave safely out of Israel, that is also an option to you.”

    “But neither of those options may necessarily be feasible or affordable to certain Americans,” he added. “And so, we are exploring actively a range of other options to assist if Americans want to leave. I’m just not at liberty now to go into more detail about that.“

    The number of American citizens or dual nationals currently living in Israel remains unconfirmed by the U.S. Department of State, which confirmed Thursday that 25 U.S. citizens have died in the Israel-Hamas war and 17 remain unaccounted for, some of whom are feared to be taken as hostages by Hamas terrorists.

    When Mr. Mills was asked how many American citizens he believes currently remain in Israel, he said there was a high possibility that there are “large swaths of Americans across the entire country.”

    “We were getting a ton of requests from Americans who were stranded, who had tried to reach out to the State Department, who were getting nowhere, had flights canceled, no more hotel room availability,” he explained.

    The congressman also said that he’s concerned evacuating efforts like the one he’s currently assisting with could turn into a redux of the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal.

    “The minute that you start seeing a potential counteroffensive or you start seeing General Secretary Hassan Nasrallah from Hezbollah kick in, or you see other proxy militia groups that are headed by people like Hadi al-Amiri [of the political-paramilitary Hadr group] or Qais Khazali [of Iran-backed paramilitary group Asa’ib Ahl al-Haqq] out of Iraq and Syria, that could definitely put a damper on things, especially if they start taking any type of indirect fire onto that runway,” Mr. Mills said.

    “I hope that we don’t see a repeat of what happened in 2021 in Afghanistan, where Americans were left behind and abandoned by this administration,” he added.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/13/2023 – 20:20

  • Taylor Swift's 'The Eras Tour' Is Already The Most Profitable Concert Movie Ever Made
    Taylor Swift’s ‘The Eras Tour’ Is Already The Most Profitable Concert Movie Ever Made

    Taylor Swift’s ‘The Eras Tour’ is already the most profitable concert movie in history – and it’s only premiering today.

    Is it the ‘Kelce-effect’?

    As Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, according to data from AMC Theatres Distribution, The Eras Tour had pulled in more than $100 million in pre-sale tickets worldwide as of October 4.

    Analysts will be eyeing the box office this weekend, as some pundits estimate that the film of the U.S. stadium tour could bring in as much as $150 million in its debut.

    Data compiled by The Numbers platform shows that Swift’s new release has already surpassed the previous music concert movie record: Justin Bieber’s Never Say Never (2011), which had a worldwide box office revenue of $99 million.

    Infographic: 'The Eras Tour' Is Already the Most Profitable Concert Movie Ever Made | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    This was followed by Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert with $71 million in 2008 and One Direction: This Is Us with $68 million in 2013.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/13/2023 – 20:00

  • Is Newsom’s Senate Appointment An 'Insulting' Pledge Fulfilled?
    Is Newsom’s Senate Appointment An ‘Insulting’ Pledge Fulfilled?

    Authored by Patrice Onwuka via RealClear Wire,

    The latest fad in the left’s identity politics game is the “black woman” pledge. Democratic lawmakers – particularly white men – are tripping over themselves to tip their hat to the core of the Democratic Party by appointing or nominating black women to prominent public positions.

    There are two problems with this kind of pledge: First, it can promote tokenism. Second, it advances loyal partisans who will advance an ideological agenda over those looking for bipartisan solutions for the good of the country.

    California Gov. Gavin Newsom made good on his 2021 pledge to appoint a black woman to fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated by the late Senator Dianne Feinstein. Union veteran and current EMILY’s List President Laphonza Butler will be sworn in shortly as the next senator, ensuring that the high chamber has a black woman serving in office.

    Perhaps Newsom took a page from President Joe Biden’s 2020 playbook in selecting former campaign foe Kamala Harris as his running mate. Now, Vice President Harris could become the next president of the United States.

    Biden also nominated Ketanji Brown-Jackson to fill the Supreme Court seat vacated by the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. He was fulfilling a pledge he made when his campaign was struggling and he needed to win South Carolina.

    While some people view this type of pledge as important to ensuring that black women’s voices are represented in national politics and public policy, others worry about the signals it sends.

    Not even one month ago, California Democrat Rep. Barbara Lee, who is ranking in third place in next year’s special election for Sen. Feinstein’s former seat, noted that “The idea that a Black woman should be appointed only as a caretaker to simply check a box is insulting to countless Black women across this country who have carried the Democratic Party to victory election after election.”

    Selecting individuals based on their race, gender, and sexual orientation easily opens the door to criticism that this person is not qualified but merely a window dressing. It’s a criticism (among many) that dogs diversity, equity, and inclusion efforts.

    Lee said as much, adding that “the people of California deserve the best possible person for that job. Not a token appointment. Black women deserve more than a participation trophy.”

    Laphonza Butler has not held elected office (not necessarily a disqualifier), but her resume reflects a career largely in either organized labor or lobbying. This contrasts with Rep. Lee’s deep ties to the community and decades-long experience in politics. Either way, though, both women would be reliably partisan, and that is the second weakness of the left’s black-woman pledge.

    Black women are not a monolith; we don’t all hold the same views despite largely being aligned with one party. Black female voters are more likely to call themselves moderate, not liberal. They are less likely to support abortion than other Democrats, are far less concerned about climate change, and are more likely to prioritize jobs and the economy. Unfortunately, the voting records of the 30 black females in Congress reflect near-perfect party allegiance. Would Butler be different?

    Butler is likely to push hard for abortion rights given her work at EMILY’s List.

    As a longtime organized labor advocate, Butler’s potential positions on federal labor policy come at a critical moment. Democrats have reintroduced the Richard L. Trumka Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act, which rips right-to-work laws apart and would lead to a wholesale reclassification of millions of independent contractors, half of whom are women – all to the benefit of labor unions.

    In a 2021 Elle magazine interview, Butler talked about the need for workplace flexibility to be a present mother as the new head of EMILY’s List. Time and location flexibility are critical to keep many women attached to the labor force as they balance childrearing, caregiving, health concerns, and other priorities. Would Butler champion flexibility for all women by opposing the PRO Act?

    The Biden Department of Labor is set to finalize its new rules cracking down on independent contracting nationwide, which Independent Women’s Forum contends will be devastating for women. Would Butler push back on this ill-advised policy as well?

    Butler consulted for Uber during its fight with California’s legislature when it passed Assembly Bill 5 (AB5). This bill reclassified independent contractors, leading to devastating results for freelancers – including the loss of incomes and livelihoods – and small businesses. We can only hope that her time at Uber might influence her view of freelancing to be more nuanced than those of union buddies, and inclined to protect independent work.

    Some will cheer Newsom’s pledge fulfillment. The black women, however, who view economic and social issues differently than Butler, have little to celebrate with her appointment.

    Patrice Onwuka is the director of the Center for Economic Opportunity at Independent Women’s Forum.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/13/2023 – 19:40

  • Saudi Arabia Puts Israel Deal On Ice, Engages With Iran In Latest Hit To Us Foreign Policy
    Saudi Arabia Puts Israel Deal On Ice, Engages With Iran In Latest Hit To Us Foreign Policy

    As widely expected, Saudi Arabia has put its US-backed plans to normalize ties with Israel on ice indefinitely, Reuters reported citing two sources, signalling a rapid reversal (and rethinking) of the Kingdom’s foreign policy priorities as war escalates between Israel and Hamas.

    Meanwhile, as reported previously, the rapidly escalating war has also pushed the kingdom to engage with Israel’s sworn enemy, Iran: earlier this week, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman took his first phone call from Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi as Riyadh tries to prevent a broader surge in violence across the region.

    Two sources told Reuters there would be a delay in the US-backed talks on normalization with Israel that was a key step for the kingdom to secure what Riyadh considers the real prize of a U.S. defense pact in exchange, although it may just as well settle for a higher oil price now that geopolitical risk premium has exploded higher.

    As a reminder, until Hamas sparked a war on Oct. 7 by launching an attack on Israel, whether with or without Iran backing, both Israeli and Saudi leaders had been saying they were moving steadily towards a deal that could have reshaped the Middle East.

    While Saudi Arabia – birthplace of Islam and home to its two holiest sites – had until the latest conflict indicated it would not allow its pursuit of a U.S. defense pact be derailed even if Israel did not offer significant concessions to the Palestinians in the their bid for statehood, sources had previously said. But an approach that sidelined Palestinians would risk angering Arabs around the region, as Arab news outlets broadcast images of Palestinians killed in Israeli retaliatory airstrikes.

    Hamas fighters killed more than 1,300 Israelis in their Oct. 7 attack and more than 1,500 had been killed by Friday in Israel’s ongoing strikes on Gaza in response, according to official reports.

    The first Reuters source said talks could not be continued for now and the issue of Israeli concessions for the Palestinians would need to be a bigger priority when discussions resumed – a comment that indicates Riyadh has not abandoned the idea, although the probability of Palestine getting bigger concessions now from the Biden admin is negligible.

    The Saudi rethink highlights challenges facing Washington’s efforts to deepen Israel’s integration in a region where the Palestinian cause remains a major Arab concern.

    “Normalisation was already considered taboo (in the Arab world) … this war only amplifies that,” Saudi analyst Aziz Alghashian said.

    The Reuters source said Washington had pressed Riyadh this week to condemn the Hamas attack but said Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan pushed back. A U.S. source familiar with the issue confirmed this.

    Meanwhile, Biden’s top National Security advisor Jake Sullivan once again lied, and told a White House briefing this week that the normalization effort was “not on hold” but said the focus was on other immediate challenges. The truth: the normalization effort is not only “on hold” but absent a miracle, is dead.

    * * *

    Meanwhile, the regional conflict has also prompted the Saudi crown prince and Iran’s president to speak for the first time after a Chinese-brokered initiative prompted the Gulf rivals to re-establish diplomatic ties in April. A Saudi statement said the crown prince told Raisi “the kingdom is exerting maximum effort to engage with all international and regional parties to halt the ongoing escalation”, underling Riyadh’s move to contain the crisis.

    A senior Iranian official told Reuters the call, made by Raisi to the crown prince, aimed to support “Palestine and prevent the spread of war in the region”. “The call was good and promising,” the official said.

    A second Iranian official said the call lasted 45 minutes and had the blessing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

    The Saudi government did not provide further details on the call but the statement said the crown prince stated the kingdom’s “opposition to any form of civilian targeting and the loss of innocent lives” and expressed Riyadh’s “unwavering stance in standing up for the Palestinian cause”.

    Bottom line: while just one week ago the US was making progress in pushing Saudi Arabia and Iran far apart, events from last weekend have reminded the middle east that, at the end of the day, Arabs will be Arabs.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/13/2023 – 19:20

  • Judge Admonishes DOJ For "Wasting the Court's Time" In Trump Documents Case
    Judge Admonishes DOJ For “Wasting the Court’s Time” In Trump Documents Case

    Authored by T.J. Muscaro and Catherine Yang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Attorney David Harbach with the special counsel’s office threw out a new argument during the two Garcia hearings scheduled Thursday, drawing ire from the judge for “wasting the court’s time” by not filing the arguments and case citations the motions the government had already submitted.

    Defendants Carlos De Oliveira and Waltine Naut leave the courthouse after the Garcia hearings with their attorneys, on Oct. 12, 2023. (TJ Muscaro/The Epoch Times)

    Mar-a-Lago property manager Carlos De Oliveira and butler Waltine Nauta were charged alongside former President Donald Trump for allegedly mishandling classified documents, and on Oct. 12, the government argued that their attorneys had conflicts of interest and could not properly represent them. The purpose of a Garcia hearing is so the defendants are clear about any potential conflicts of interest and their ramifications. The hearings for Mr. De Oliveira and Mr. Nauta were held back to back.

    Mr. Harbach had argued there was an ethical issue with the defendants’ legal counsel, and that they should not be able to call into question their former clients’ credibility and characters on the witness stand. The roundabout arguments ended up frustrating the judge, and Mr. Nauta’s hearing was ultimately postponed.

    Carlos De Oliveira

    Mr. De Oliveira is represented by John Irving and local attorney Larry Murrell.

    The prosecution argued that Mr. Irving previously represented three potential witnesses only identified as Trump Employee 3, Witness 1, and Witness 2, and though he no longer represents them, attorney-client privilege would still apply, and he would not be able to make use of confidential information regarding his former clients. Mr. Irving stopped representing the three clients on Aug. 30, and said there was nothing he knew that the government didn’t already know, and no issue of confidentiality would be a problem in the case.

    Mr. Harbach appeared to cast doubt on the claim, saying “we don’t know what we don’t know.”

    Judge Aileen Cannon, presiding over the case, repeatedly asked Mr. De Oliveira if he understood the arguments, and the impact of retaining his attorney, and the possibility that his lawyer may not represent him as “vigorously” as he is supposed to. Mr. De Oliveira, who speaks with a thick Portuguese accent, answered affirmatively each time.

    When Mr. Harbach pointed out that this meant Mr. Irving would not be able to call the character or credibility of his three former clients into question during cross-examinations, his argument did not go smoothly. He tripped over his words as he presented the new argument, which was shut down by the defense.

    Mr. Irving made clear that he did not concede to the special counsel’s proposed “ethical prohibitions,” and argued that he should not “be precluded to talk to the jury about any witness.”

    Mr. Irving also said that Mr. De Oliveira’s local counsel, Mr. Murrell, would be able to cross-examine those three witnesses if necessary, and Mr. De Oliveira accepted this.

    After explaining to Mr. De Oliveira that his acceptance, and his waiving of any conflict in his legal representation, would mean he would lose attorney-conflict arguments as an appeal later down the line, Mr. De Oliveira elected to keep his lawyer.

    Waltine Nauta

    Mr. Nauta is represented by Stanley Woodward, who previously represented the Trump Employee 4 the government claimed “flipped” to become a key witness.

    Mr. Woodward’s law firm still represents Witness 1 and Witness 2, though during Mr. Nauta’s hearing Mr. Harbach said they no longer planned to call Witness 2 to testify.

    When Mr. Harbach made the new argument during the second Garcia hearing, saying the lawyer would not be able to stand up and attack a witness’s credibility and character in defense of his client, the defense immediately seized upon it, stalling the proceeding.

    Mr. Woodward refused to waive his right to call any witness’s character or credibility into question. He gave the hypothetical example of Trump Employee 4 having a stroke just before he was to testify—was he to not touch upon his medical condition and credibility if the court ordered such a prohibition?

    Mr. Woodward said that “filling the sky with hypotheticals to presume” that he was unable to properly cross-examine the witnesses to defend his clients was “wrong.”

    Mr. Harbach received little backup from the judge over his argument about issues of loyalty and confidentiality; Judge Cannon criticized him for citing three cases outside the 11th Circuit that couldn’t be used properly as parallels, but noted that Mr. Nauta should be aware of this. She expressed frustration and said it wasn’t clear whether Mr. Harbach was asking the court to prohibit the attorneys questioning former or current clients.

    The three cases the government mentioned were United States v. Yannotti, United States v. Spataro, and United States v. Rahman, which were all prosecuted in New York.

    Mr. Woodward requested more time as he said that Thursday was the first time he heard such an argument and could now not properly advise Mr. Nauta on his 6th Amendment rights meant to be highlighted by the Garcia hearing.

    No new hearing date has been scheduled.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/13/2023 – 19:00

  • Friday Fun? Jon Stewart Summarizes The Israel-Palestine Conflict Conversation Conundrum
    Friday Fun? Jon Stewart Summarizes The Israel-Palestine Conflict Conversation Conundrum

    It appears nothing has changed in nine years…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Will it be different this time?

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/13/2023 – 18:40

  • WH Ups Pressure On Tuberville To Abandon Pentagon Blockade
    WH Ups Pressure On Tuberville To Abandon Pentagon Blockade

    Authored by Philip Wegmann via RealClear Wire,

    As the war in Israel intensifies, the White House will accelerate its efforts to break the blockade on Pentagon promotions that Sen. Tommy Tuberville has kept in place for more than six months, arguing that the Alabama Republican’s “selfish stunt” amounts to “a windfall to our adversaries.”

    Tuberville has shown no sign of relenting even as the United States rushes munitions to Israel and sends American armed forces to the region, insisting that the “hold is not affecting our military’s readiness.”

    President Biden’s national security spokesman, John Kirby, noted Wednesday that the commander of the U.S. Fifth Fleet, which patrols Middle Eastern waters, has not been relieved on schedule because his replacement, Rear Adm. George Wikoff, remains in Senate limbo.

    Conflict in Israel, Kirby told RealClearPolitics, “just highlights how dynamic the security environment is around the world and how much more critical it is that the leadership of the military be able to address that dynamism through the normal promotion process.”

    Republicans have backed Biden’s efforts to support Israel after a Hamas terrorist attack last weekend left more than 1,200 Israelis dead and killed 22 American citizens. For his part, Tuberville has said that Israel “has a right to go” into the Gaza strip to root out the terrorist organization. The senator cautioned Tuesday during an interview with a local Alabama Fox affiliate, however, that “the problem is, when you start picking sides in the Middle East, it can get really messy very quick.”

    In a White House memo obtained by RCP, the administration seized on that comment as “outrageous” and evidence that Tuberville, a former college football coach in his first term in office, was not only “directly sabotaging the American military” but also expressing weakness “after Israel endured horrific terrorist attacks from Hamas.”

    “When it comes to the horrific events in Israel, President Biden knows which side he’s on,” stated the memo authored by White House deputy press secretary Andrew Bates. “Sen. Tuberville should look in the mirror and then follow the President’s lead.”

    “How many memos are we up to now,” Tuberville’s office replied. “A dozen at least?”

    “This memo will have the same impact as the previous memos from the Biden comms staff: none whatsoever,” Tuberville spokesman, Steven Stafford, told RCP. “Coach’s hold is not affecting our military’s readiness. No job is unfilled, and no job is going undone. The hold is certainly not affecting the militaries of other countries.”

    “This has to be the Left’s most ridiculous attack yet, but unfortunately the lamestream media has bought it completely,” he said before adding, “You should ask the Pentagon if they believe our military is not ‘ready at a moment’s notice.’”

    Acrimony had already set in on both sides well before the Hamas attack. For months, Tuberville defended his hold on the promotions of hundreds of military officers in protest of a new Pentagon policy that reimburses servicemembers for abortion-related expenses. Democrats are welcome to bring the new Pentagon abortion policy up for a vote itself, he has said in response to the criticism, or confirm the promotions one by one.

    Republicans running for president, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, have previously expressed their support for the blockade, and the issue has become a sort of red line for 2024 candidates seeking the GOP nomination.

    If the Senate was to take up each military promotion one at a time as Republicans say Democrats are welcome to do, the Congressional Research Service estimates that the process would consume approximately 700 hours of floor time.

    The Senate did vote in September to confirm the promotion of the Marine Corps commandant and Army chief of staff, proving according to Tuberville that the upper chamber can still meet its obligations to offer advice and consent.

    The White House previously told RCP that the updated abortion policy is critical for military readiness. If soldiers are stationed in states like Alabama with restrictive abortion laws, Kirby told RCP in July, then some servicemembers may decide to leave the military. “That means we lose talent, important talent,” he said before adding that ensuring abortion access “is just the right darn thing to do for people who raise their hand and agree to serve in the military.”

    Tuberville has received a fair share of incoming. In an open letter published last May, former defense secretaries from both Republican and Democratic administrations warned that the blanket hold “risks turning military officers into political pawns.” More recently, former CIA Director Michael Hayden raised eyebrows by suggesting that more drastic measures may be needed.

    When asked if Tuberville should be removed from the Senate Armed Services Committee, Hayden responded on social media Monday, “How about the human race?” The senator called the comment “disgusting” and tantamount to an endorsement of “politically motivated assassination.” His office referred the issue to Capitol Police.

    “Regardless of any delusions Sen. Tuberville is under, this is not a game. The stakes for America’s military could not be higher,” the White House responded. “And the abhorrent Hamas terrorist attacks in Israel are an inescapable reminder that Tuberville is intentionally undermining our military readiness in th

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/13/2023 – 18:20

  • Bitcoin Spot ETF Coming After SEC Abandons Appeal
    Bitcoin Spot ETF Coming After SEC Abandons Appeal

    Today was the deadline by which the SEC must either appeal the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals decision to the U.S. Supreme Court, request the Appeals Court revisit its ruling, or follow the court’s August order and review Grayscale’s bid to change its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a spot Bitcoin ETF.

    Bloomberg has just reported, according to a person familiar with the matter, that the SEC isn’t planing to ask for an appeal.

    As a reminder, in August, the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that the SEC’s denial of Grayscale Investment’s application to convert the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an ETF was invalid and must be reviewed, calling it an “arbitrary and capricious” rejection.

    The court said that federal agencies are required to “treat like cases alike.”

    The SEC’s decision not to appeal was somewhat expected as Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas tweeted yesterday…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    And as is evident in the collapse in the market’s discount for GBTC…

    So what happpens next?

    Bloomberg’s James Seyffart tweeted the following:

    1. Done deal I guess if this is accurate. No en banc application

    2. No. I do not think they will appeal to the Supreme Court either.

    3. Dialogue between Grayscale and SEC should begin next week. Hoping for more info on next steps sometime next week or week after?

    Bitcoin bounced a little on the headline…

    However, as CoinTelegraph reports, there’s still a chance regulators could delay and continue their ‘war onm crypto’:

    A September note from law firm Ropes & Gray warned the GBTC application could be sent back for review to the SEC, giving the regulator another chance to reject it on a different basis.

    “In this scenario, the new denial could itself then be subject to another appeal by GBTC to the D.C. Circuit,” wrote the firm.

    Another delay scenario, according to Ropes & Gray, would be if the New York Stock Exchange has to make a new filing to list GBTC – then it is possible the SEC could take up to eight months to reach a decision on the ETF.

    But, the likelihood of an approved spot Bitcoin ETF this year is 75%, according to Bloomberg analysts who updated the odds after Grayscale’s August court win (and is likely dramatically higher now as they previously noted the odds jump to a 95% likelihood of approval by the end of 2024).

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/13/2023 – 18:00

  • The Net Zero Ship Starting To Sink
    The Net Zero Ship Starting To Sink

    Authored by Nicole James via The Epoch Times,

    Are we observing the early stages of worldwide resistance against the constraints of net zero policies?

    Investors are ditching renewable energy faster than any other funds on record.

    Reuters reports that renewable energy funds suffered a net outflow of $1.4 billion in the July to September 2023 quarter.

    LSEG Lipper data shows this to be the largest-ever quarterly outflow. There was also a 23 percent decline from the end of June of the total assets under management in the sector—now valued at $65.4 billion.

    The S&P Global Clean Energy Index (.SPGTCLEN), is also down by 30 percent this year with most of the decline occurring since July. This Index comprises major solar and wind power companies and other renewables-related businesses.

    Yet in contrast, the S&P 500 Energy Index (.SPNY), which is oil and gas-heavy, has increased slightly this year.

    It is not just investors who are exiting net zero. Politicians are also raising concerns.

    Australian Nationals Senator Matt Canavan said net zero has “absolutely carked it.”

    His position is that net zero is a “soundbite” and “totally insane.” It is unachievable because people will starve if it is enforced.

    “Almost everything we grow, we make, we do in our society relies on the use of fossil fuels,” he said.

    Patrick Moore, the co-founder of Greenpeace agrees.

    He told Tucker Carlson, “If we banned fossil fuels, agricultural production would collapse in a very short period of time. People will begin to starve … and half the population will die in a very short period of time.”

    Governments Across the World Bucking the Net Zero Trend

    Politicians around the world are also raising concerns.

    UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has delayed banning new petrol and diesel cars and residential gas heating until 2035. This has been previously delayed twice with deadlines moved from 2025 to 2030.

    He said, “We’re not going to save the planet by bankrupting the British people.”

    France’s President Macron has said that gas boilers will not be banned. He has also been shy about declaring a date for phasing out fossil fuels.

    The polls are showing that New Zealand’s government is heading for opposition in this weekend’s election.

    The taxing of livestock for methane emissions and transforming sheep and cattle farms into pine plantations has caused a revolt among rural voters.

    In the Netherlands, the Farmer-Citizen movement is the dominant party in the Dutch Senate and every provincial assembly.

    Germany is planning to resurrect its coal plants and some of Germany’s large corporations such as Volkswagen, Siemens, and BASF are leaving their homeland for better business climates after the increasing local cost of pushing for net zero.

    U.S. presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. believes that real environmentalism is about protecting natural habitats, sustaining ecosystems, and reducing pollution and deforestation. It’s not about net zero, he said.

    Even Bill Gates now says that “no temperate country is going to become uninhabitable.”

    This is quite different from his earlier statement on Fox News two years ago when he said, “The migration that we saw out of Syria for their civil war, which was somewhat weather dependent, we’re going to have 10 times as much migration because the equatorial areas will become unliveable.”

    While Australia contributes just over one percent of global carbon dioxide emissions (a similar level to the UK), in 2022, China approved 106 gigawatts of new coal fired power capacity which gives it 243 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity under construction.

    That is the equivalent of 243 coal power plants with China now accounting for around 30 percent of global CO2 emissions.

    Meanwhile, in June, Swedish authorities abandoned its 100 percent renewable target to reach net zero by 2045, and Norway followed this announcement by approving investments exceeding over US$18 billion to develop 19 oil and gas fields.

    Even in the European Union, there is a shift of voters turning away from Green parties and towards those with an anti-EU sentiment.

    According to Politico, one reason is voter attitude towards climate transition policies.

    Back in Australia, geologist, Professor Ian Plimer has been vocal in his criticism of net zero.

    He told ADHTV that, “The fundamentals of science are you do not tamper with the original evidence. That has happened with our temperature record, where the past has been cooled and it makes it look as if we’re warming. That is fraud.”

    Senator Ralph Babet told the Australian Parliament that net zero is a “complete and utter scam, designed to shut down our nation, enrich predatory globalists, and the CCP.”

    There are still some who cling to the net zero mission, however.

    Former UK PM Theresa May wrote on X (formerly Twitter), “Net zero isn’t a cost to be minimised—it’s the growth opportunity of the century, worth 1 trillion pounds to British business by the end of the decade.”

    But investors aren’t buying it.

    While many renewable projects are being shelved or delayed such as wind projects in the UK, Netherlands, and Norway because of constraints such as skyrocketing costs, Rich Pontillo, Lead Advisory at Nasdaq IR Intelligence, told Reuters there could be another upcycle because of “massive” U.S. government subsidies.

    However, if there is a change of president in 2024, Pontillo may need to rethink this statement.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/13/2023 – 17:40

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Oct 13

Today’s News 13th October 2023

  • China's "National Team" Has Small Cash Pile To Rescue Tumbling Stocks
    China’s “National Team” Has Small Cash Pile To Rescue Tumbling Stocks

    By Ye Xie and Amy Li, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategists

    The sovereign wealth fund’s investment in the big banks shows that Beijing is committed to putting a floor under the stock market.

    The purchase is limited in size, but the signaling effect could be more important. Unfortunately, the signaling effect works only if investors believe that the National Team has deep pockets to keep buying the dip. The reality is that the cash pile at Central Huijin Investment Ltd. is dwindling fast.  

    Chinese equity markets responded positively to the news that Huijin bought about $65 million of shares in the four largest Chinese banks, and pledged to increase holdings over the next six months.

    It fits the historical pattern where intervention by the state fund tended to support the market in the short term, as this column noted yesterday. But history also shows these actions alone won’t be able to sustain the market over time.

    The sovereign wealth fund could be formidable if it has unlimited fire power. That’s not the case, though. Huijin has been burning through its cash over the past two years. Cash and cash equivalents have declined to 30 billion yuan ($4.1 billion) as of June, from a peak of 301 billion in 2021.

    The cash has been used to pay dividends and interest to the fund’s shareholders — i.e. the government. Presumably, it was to help fund the cash-pinched government as the economy slowed.

    Ultimately, to rejuvenate the market, the economy and corporate earnings growth need to pick up. And there’s not much the National Team can do to help with that.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/12/2023 – 23:20

  • Map Explainer: The Gaza Strip
    Map Explainer: The Gaza Strip

    Recent attacks on Israel by Hamas have placed the Gaza Strip firmly in the spotlight of the global news cycle.

    While conflict in that part of the world is thoroughly covered in headlines and news stories, more basic facts about Gaza receive less attention.

    With this infographic, Visual Capitalist’s Nick Routley fills in some of those gaps, including demographics, infrastructure, and more.


    Below, we outline three key facts to know about the Gaza Strip and the people who live there:

    1. Gaza is Young and Increasingly Crowded

    Gaza has a high fertility rate (3.9), and as a result, nearly half of the people living there are children. Much of this rapidly growing population lives in crowded cities and camps that are some of the most densely populated areas in the world.

    The majority of people in the Gaza Strip are officially considered refugees by the UN. Over many decades, refugee camps have become permanent settlements, blending with the surrounding urban areas. Upwards of 80% of the population relies on international aid for basic services and sustenance.

    In terms of religion, Gaza is very uniform. 99% of the population are Sunni Muslims. This is similar to Egypt and other North African nations.

    2. The Territory is Tightly Controlled

    Israel has enforced a land, air, and sea blockade since 2007, when Hamas took control of the Gaza Strip and Israel’s Security Cabinet labeled region a “hostile entity”. The land border of Gaza Strip is heavily fortified consisting of double-wired fencing and concrete barriers. These borders follow the “Green Line”, a demarcation set after the end of the Arab–Israeli War. There is also a 100-300 meter buffer zone inside the territory’s border where access is restricted.

    There are two border crossings—one into Egypt in the south and one into Israel in the north—that a limited number of civilians can cross. Over the years, border crossings on the east side of the territory have been closed down. There is an additional large scale crossing on the bottom corner of the territory that serves as a checkpoint for goods entering from Egypt.

    The region’s airspace is controlled by Israel. Even its electro-magnetic space is restricted, meaning many Palestinians rely on 2G and 3G.

    3. Infrastructure is Patchy

    Multiple years of conflict and underinvestment have left infrastructure in shambles in much of the Gaza Strip.

    For example, there is a just single diesel power plant servicing the entire region. Power lines run into Gaza from neighboring Israel, but even in non-conflict periods, the region runs a large electricity deficit.

    Gaza accesses fresh water via the Coastal Aquifer—an underground water supply that is dwindling due to over-extraction—and from desalination plants. International aid efforts are improving the situation, but infrastructure remains damaged by neglect and intermittent air strikes.

    Water treatment infrastructure has slowly been improving due to foreign aid, and less raw sewage is now entering the Mediterranean Sea. This clean-up effort has helped create more recreation opportunities along the territory’s beaches.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/12/2023 – 23:00

  • Banks Need More Than Profits For Wary Investors
    Banks Need More Than Profits For Wary Investors

    By Bre Bradham, Bloomberg markets live reporter and analyst

    When US banks kick off the third-quarter earnings season Friday, it will mark the first in a long line of hurdles the group needs to clear in order to assuage investor fears.

    Bank stocks are hovering near the lowest level of the year, a mark hit in May following First Republic Bank’s collapse. The KBW Bank Index has tumbled 24% this year, a sharp underperformance to the S&P 500 Index’s 13% gain. Five of the largest US banks, excluding JPMorgan Chase & Co., have combined to lose about $100 billion in market capitalization this year.

    “Investors in the bank space just have about a half-dozen issues that are out there that need to get resolved to their better satisfaction,” Piper Sandler analyst R. Scott Siefers said.

    Among the challenges are new regulatory proposals that would impose higher capital requirements on banks, unrealized losses in their securities’ portfolios and rising bad loan write-offs. The demise of three banks in the S&P 500 earlier this year is also still fresh in investors’ minds.

    The sector fell 1% on Thursday, underperforming the broader market as yields climbed.

    “Investors are sort of looking at things and saying, the spring was an actual crisis with three large bank failures. The summer was downward estimates revisions due to interest rates and funding pressures, and now you’re telling me we’re on the cusp of a potential credit cycle,” Siefers said. “The industry is in sort of a show-me phase right now.”

    The weakness in recent weeks has been driven in part by concerns over unrealized losses due to rising bond yields. With the Federal Reserve’s path of interest-rate hikes remaining uncertain and instances of bank charge-offs due to borrower distress emerging, investors will likely remain bolted to the sidelines.

    “Third-quarter is not likely to flip a switch from good to bad, but it is likely to affirm an upward progression of loan losses from what’s been unusually favorable levels,” Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo said about credit.

    For Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Christopher McGratty, it’s going to take time to get more constructive on bank stocks. The market can’t account for credit weakness until it can get a sense of just how deep it will run.

    “There’s a high degree of unpredictability,” said McGratty. His firm has a market-weight stance on the sector.

    Meanwhile, banks’ net interest income results will be in focus amid the higher deposit costs, as firms continue to compete for business amid the tumult sparked by the collapses of regional lenders like Silicon Valley Bank in March. JPMorgan, one of the first firms scheduled to report third-quarter results on Friday, is expected to be an NII outlier among its biggest peers because of its acquisition of First Republic.

    Shares of the nation’s biggest bank gained more than 8% this year, adding $30 billion in market capitalization. That’s made JPMorgan roughly twice as big as the second-largest US bank by market value, Bank of America Corp.

    Analysts expect guidance to reflect relative stability, following downward revisions from many banks over the summer.

    Of course, the uncertainties could be resolved in a favorable way to banks. The Fed could engineer a soft landing, rate cuts could alleviate deposit costs and final versions of regulatory proposals may be tempered.

    Given that the sector’s trading at such cheap valuations, some analysts have argued for investors to take a stock-picking approach. Others warn the group has become woefully undervalued and poised for a bounce. Earnings season will bring “micro” factors to “center stage” and banks could outperform, according to Citi analysts.

    “Large-cap banks appear materially oversold,” UBS analyst Erika Najarian wrote in a note recently. “Once again, stocks are reflecting what we think are unwarranted existential concerns, rather than the fundamental issues.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/12/2023 – 22:40

  • Arnold Schwarzenegger Says Democrats Want To "Ruin" US Cities
    Arnold Schwarzenegger Says Democrats Want To “Ruin” US Cities

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (Emphasis ours),

    Former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger said in a recent interview that Democrats want to “ruin” American cities.

    During an interview with actor Rob Lowe on his podcast, the former bodybuilder and “Terminator” star responded to a statement that the Republican Party wants “strong military, low taxes, less government, [and] more personal freedoms.”

    Mr. Schwarzenegger, 76, chimed in by adding “strong law enforcement.”

    When he was asked by Mr. Lowe what it means to be a Democrat, he responded: “Ruin your cities. That’s what the Democrats would say. We are about ruining the cities. We want to [expletive] up every city in America. That seems to be the theme right now.”

    “Why is that?” Mr. Lowe asked.

    “I have no idea,” he replied.

    Although Mr. Schwarzenegger served as California governor as a Republican between 2003 and 2011, he became increasingly critical of GOP policies during former President Donald Trump’s tenure and also made a number of controversial statements during the COVID-19 pandemic. Notably, he criticized people for not wearing masks or getting COVID-19 vaccines, drawing pushback from conservative media and via social media.

    “There is a virus here. It kills people. And the only way we prevent it is to get vaccinated, to wear masks, to do social distancing, washing your hands all the time, and not just to think about, ‘Well, my freedom is being disturbed here,'” he said in 2021, drawing condemnation. “No. Screw your freedom. With freedom comes obligations and responsibilities.”

    Despite the comments, in a September interview with the New York Times, the former California governor insisted that believes he still has a home in the Republican Party.

    “There is a home for me in the Republican Party. In the state of California, the Republican Party has done a horrible job to represent the people,” he claimed. “When you’re in the Legislature, you’re not supposed to represent only your district; you’re also supposed to represent the state and move the state forward and work with everyone in order to make life better.”

    He then claimed that the “majority of Californians … want to get rid of fossil fuels,” which Republicans do not support. He did not cite evidence for his assertion.

    But in a recent “View” appearance, he stated that the current U.S. immigration system is “set up to commit a crime,” while appearing to suggest that more work visas should be issued. He also cited concerns about drug cartels and terrorism for better border security.

    “You have to really have comprehensive immigration reform, and you have to look at this immigration problem in a comprehensive way. You can, first of all, I believe very strongly in having a border that no one can get through. That’s number one for me,” he stated on “The View” earlier this year.

    He added: “Number two, what is important is that we have visas available for people that want to work in the United States, so they don’t have to work illegally. It is bogus, we need the workers here,” he said, responding to co-host Ana Navarro.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/12/2023 – 22:20

  • Victor Davis Hanson: Hamas And Amoral Clarity
    Victor Davis Hanson: Hamas And Amoral Clarity

    Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

    One unexpected blowback from the medieval Hamas’s barbaric murdering of hundreds of Israeli civilians is the revelation of current global amorality.

    More than 20 Harvard university identity politics groups pledged their support to the Hamas murderers—to the utter silence for days of Harvard President Claudine Gay.

    Americans knew higher education practiced racist admission policies. It has long promoted racially segregated dorms and graduations. And de facto it has destroyed the First Amendment.

    But the overt support for Hamas killers by the diversity, equity, and inclusion crowd on a lot of campuses exposes to Americans the real moral and intellectual rot in higher education.

    Democratic Socialist members of the new woke Democrat Party openly expressed ecstatic support for Hamas’s bloodwork.

    Their biggest fears were not dead fellow Americans or hostages, or some 1,000 butchered Jewish civilians. Instead they were fearful that righteous Israeli retaliation might destroy the Hamas death machine.

    Palestinians for years fooled naïfs in Europe and the Obama and Biden administrations into sending billions of dollars into Gaza.

    These monies were channeled to tunnel into Israel, to obtain a huge rocket arsenal, and to craft plans to wipe out Jews.

    The Biden administration has blood on its hands.

    As soon as Biden took power, he resumed massive subsidies to radical Palestinians, canceled by the prior Trump administration.

    He ignored warnings from his own state Department that such fungible moneys would soon fuel Hamas terrorism.

    His administration dropped sanctions against Iran, ensuring that Tehran would enjoy a multi-billion-dollar windfall to be distributed to Israel’s existential enemies—another fact well known to the Biden administration.

    If the Biden administration had announced overtly that it was rabidly anti-Israel, it would be hard to imagine anything it could have done differently from its present nihilist behavior.

    Biden and company quickly restarted the defunct Iran appeasement deal—a leftover from the anti-Israeli Obama administration. No surprise, they appointed radical pro-Iranian activist Robert Malley to head the negotiations.

    Malley allegedly has leaked American classified documents to Iranian officials and is under investigation by the FBI. He did his best to place pro-Iranian, anti-American activists into the high echelons of the U.S. government.

    Biden was intent on forcing South Korea to release to Iran $6 billion in sanctioned frozen money.

    That expectation of cash ensured Iran would be reimbursed for its present terrorist arming spree.

    Secretary of State Antony Blinken shamefully tweeted that Israel should settle for an immediate ceasefire. No wonder he soon withdrew his unhinged posting.

    That idiocy would be the moral equivalent of an American ally in December1941 urging the U.S. to seek negotiations with imperial Japan after its surprise bombing of Pearl Harbor—to avoid a “cycle of violence.”

    The Biden team has drained strategic arms stockpiles in Israel, designed to help the Jewish state in extremis.

    It recklessly abandoned a multibillion-dollar arms trove in Kabul, some of which reportedly made its way from Taliban killers to the Hamas murderers.

    Once the mass murdering started, the amoral clarity of our “allies” was stunning.

    NATO partner Turkey openly sided with the killers. It —along with Blinken—called for a cease fire—at the moment the Hamas death squads had finished, and Israel was ready to hold Hamas to account.

    Qatar, where the U.S. Central Command is based, proved little more than a Hamas front.

    It offers sanctuary to the architects of Hamas killing. And Qatar ensures a safe financial pipeline to Hamas from Iran and the radical Arab world.

    Some of the most vehement current supporters of the Hamas death squads were immigrants to America from the Middle East.

    Oddly, they apparently had fled just such illiberal Middle East regimes to reach a tolerant, democratic, and secure United States.

    Yet they now endorse the Hamas butchering of Jewish civilians. Its savagery is aimed at executing, raping, and beheading Jews, and then mutilating their bodies.

    Hamas apparently hopes to shock the Israeli government into voluntarily committing suicide—in line with the ancient Hamas agenda to destroy the Jewish state.

    In a strange way, this reign of death has become a touchstone, an acid test of sorts that has revealed the utter amorality of enemies abroad and quite dangerous people at home.

    It is past time that Americans deal with the medieval world that was revealed this week rather than keep dreaming in the fantasy world of our government.

    Americans need to stop illegal immigration and restore their southern border, while ceasing all immigration from unhinged, hostile nations.

    The military must return to its deterrent role and fire its woke commissariat.

    Our leaders must accept that in the last three years of the Biden administration, serial American appeasement abroad, disunity at home, and social chaos have encouraged an entire host of enemies —China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Middle East illiberal regimes, and former friends like Turkey and Qatar.

    And our enemies dream of doing to us what we just saw in Israel.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/12/2023 – 21:40

  • Visualizing The R&D Investment Of The 10 Biggest Nasdaq Companies
    Visualizing The R&D Investment Of The 10 Biggest Nasdaq Companies

    Over the last decade, Apple’s research and development (R&D) spending has jumped from about $3 billion to over $26 billion.

    The world’s largest company, like other tech giants, is investing heavily in R&D on the heels of AI disruption and the rapid speed of innovation. As these technologies become more pervasive in our daily lives, so too has investment in R&D across major companies.

    As Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld shows in the following graphic, using data from Trendline, the scale of spending at the 10 biggest companies listed on the Nasdaq is significant…

    R&D Investment by the 10 Biggest Nasdaq Firms

    In 2022, the 10 largest Nasdaq companies by market cap spent roughly $222 billion on R&D—a figure that has risen considerably in recent years.

    *Trailing 12 months, ending December 31, 2022. Nvidia and Broadcom data is as of January 29, 2023.

    Amazon invested over $73 billion in R&D last year, more than double the levels seen at Meta or Apple. R&D spending increased 30% over the year for the retail heavyweight, as it invested in technology infrastructure that underlies everything from software to autonomous vehicles.

    Facebook parent Meta spent almost a third of its annual revenues on R&D in 2022, the highest proportion across the 10 largest Nasdaq companies. The majority of these investments were through its research arm, Reality Labs, which is focused on building a metaverse. However, the company has since pivoted away from its work on the metaverse due to a lackluster response—instead focusing on generative AI.

    Chipmaker Nvidia, which has seen its market capitalization skyrocket in 2023, spent over $7 billion on R&D across generative AI, deep learning, robotics, and a number of other research areas. Between 2021 and 2022, investments in R&D grew by 34%.

    Fastest Rising R&D Spenders, Globally

    Beyond big tech names in the Nasdaq, many companies are accelerating their investment in R&D as the complexity of technology increases.

    The table below shows the top 10 companies globally with the highest increase in R&D spend, based on analysis by fDi Intelligence.

    China’s largest electric vehicle maker, BYD, increased R&D investment by 133%, the most across companies analyzed. Among its primary research areas is the “Blade Battery”, which is a prismatic battery designed to hold as much as 50% more energy than comparable models.

    Two chipmakers, AMD and TSMC also made the list, while three healthcare companies Moderna, Novo Nordisk, and Vertex Pharmaceuticals made significant R&D investments.

    The Future of Innovation Spending

    Even as many big tech names saw their stock prices fall in 2022, many dramatically increased their R&D investment.

    This came as tech firms laid off thousands of employees. Together, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google’s parent company Alphabet laid of 40,000 employees as of early 2023.

    Despite challenging environments, the focus on R&D is evident. Large companies can apply innovation across numerous areas of their business, improve efficiencies, with the goal of making the most out of research dollars spent.

    At the same time, the complexity of technology is accelerating, requiring companies to spend more to keep with the pace of innovation. This involves investment in engineers, research facilities, along with the cost of running more advanced technological infrastructure.

    Between 2000 and 2020, global R&D spending increased more than threefold to $2.4 trillion, a trend that shows minimal signs of slowing.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/12/2023 – 21:20

  • The Incredibles: Roughly 80% Of Grades Given At Harvard Are In The 'A' Range
    The Incredibles: Roughly 80% Of Grades Given At Harvard Are In The ‘A’ Range

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    The Harvard Crimson on Thursday reported that 79 percent of grades given to Harvard students in 2020-21 were in the A range.

    That is an increase of 20 percent over the last decade.

    It leaves the question of not how difficult it is to flunk out of Harvard but how difficult it is not to excel. Faculty have apparently solved any equity issues by making everyone a top student.

    The problem was raised in the movie “The Incredibles,” when the villainous character “Syndrome” reveals a plan to make everyone a superhero.

    Syndrome’s motive is hardly altruistic: He hated superheroes and “with everyone super, no one will be.”

    In 2010, 60 percent of Harvard students were given grades in the A range and that was viewed at the time as rather scandalous.

    Now, to not get an A, is apparently a shocker.

    Dean of Undergraduate Education Amanda Claybaugh and Dean of Harvard College Rakesh Khurana reportedly presented the data at the first meeting this year of the Faculty of Arts and Sciences.

    Claybaugh admitted that the “report establishes we have a problem — or rather, we have two: the intertwined problems of grade inflation and compression.”

    She noted that the effort to secure better teaching evaluations may be driving the upward shift.

    She also noted that it obviously “complicates selection processes for prizes, fellowships, or induction into Phi Beta Kappa, which rely heavily on students’ grade point averages.”

    In other words, to paraphrase Syndrome: “With everyone an A student, no one will be.”

    Yet, the suggestions on how to deal with the problem were even more bizarre. Romance languages and literatures Professor Annabel Kim suggested the “abolition of grading” and the institution of “narrative-based” evaluations.It is not clear how employers would be informed of the narrative-based performance of students in school.

    On this trajectory, Harvard will be at 100 percent ‘A’s in year 2033. It may seem the perfect grading system for a trophy generation. However, my students have long objected that they never wanted the trophies.  It is not their generational problem, it is ours. We resolved the struggle over tough decisions by not making them.

    What is interesting is that Harvard is creating an effective three-grade system where the curve runs from A+ to A-.

    The new report seems to vindicate William F. Buckley, Jr. when he declared “I’d rather entrust the government of the United States to the first 400 people listed in the Boston telephone directory than to the faculty of Harvard University.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/12/2023 – 21:00

  • A "Sh*t Thing" To Say: Explosive Kerfuffle Erupts Between House Dems After Jewish Rep. Accused Of Slamming Muslims
    A “Sh*t Thing” To Say: Explosive Kerfuffle Erupts Between House Dems After Jewish Rep. Accused Of Slamming Muslims

    House Democrats had a tense closed-door caucus meeting on Wednesday, after one lawmaker accused another of saying a “shit thing” about Muslims.

    The kerfuffle erupted after Rep. Susan Wild (D-PA) described a virtual vigil she attended in the wake of this weekend’s Hamas attack, Politico reports. Wild explained that she didn’t want any religious community to feel ostracized, and noted that Muslim leaders weren’t present at the event to condemn the attack, when Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) – a prominent Jewish Democrat and Israel hawk, loudly interjected.

    Accounts differ, however, on whether Gottheimer was referring to Muslims or made an ill-timed remark in an unrelated conversation, with some attendees overhearing him saying “because they’re all guilty” and others saying he stated “because they should feel guilty.” A spokesperson for Gottheimer strongly denied that he was talking about Muslims.

    “Congressman Gottheimer never said anything about Muslims in today’s caucus meeting, a community he cares deeply about. Congressman Gottheimer said that the members of Congress who have not yet condemned Hamas terrorists should feel guilty,” said his spokesperson Chris D’Aloia.

    “Joshua!” one Democratic lawmaker shouted out in response to his remarks.

    Gottheimer insisted later that his comments were taken out of context, and made as part of a separate conversation about condemning Hamas. He has notably complained in recent days that there’s been insufficient criticism of Hamas for the attack.

    Rep. Greg Casar (D-TX), a first term progressive lawmaker, then confronted Gottheimer – with Cesar telling Gottheimer that his remarks were a “shit thing to say,” and were “shameful,” after the two argued back and forth, according to six witnesses.

    Amid the spat, Reps. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and other progressive lawmakers were spotted leaving the party meeting together.

    The dustup shined a bright light on the longtime fracture within the Democratic Party over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It’s a divide that the party had largely skirted following the bloody surprise terrorist attack this weekend — but one that threatens to roil Democrats further as the war in the Middle East progresses in the weeks ahead. -Politico

    Gottheimer’s spokesman then peddled in unconfirmed reports that Hamas beheaded babies. 

    “Congressman Gottheimer is furious and deeply disappointed with Members of Congress who have yet to condemn Hamas terrorists for brutally murdering, raping, burning alive, kidnapping, torturing, and beheading innocent babies, children, women, men, and grandparents — including Americans,” said D’Aloia, adding “Congressman Gottheimer said that those members who have not condemned Hamas terrorists should indeed feel guilty. Of course, Congressman Gottheimer doesn’t blame innocent Palestinian civilians — he blames the terrorists.”

    The White House has been casting a ‘very public shadow’ of support for Israel – with President Biden on Tuesday forcefully denouncing Hamas’ attack as “pure, unadulterated evil,” and pledging that the United States “has Israel’s back.”

    While a handful of progressive lawmakers have publicly pushed for a cease-fire, de-escalation and even stripping government support from Israel, most Democrats in Congress have largely stayed behind the president as he sidestepped those calls.

    Biden also has urged lawmakers in both parties to provide emergency funding for Israel and condemned Hamas for the killing of more than 1,000 Israelis and the kidnapping of hundreds more.

    Several progressive and more establishment-minded Democrats said that party unity has been palpable so far due in part to the gruesome nature of the attacks on Israel that took place. -Politico

    “It was so grotesque that it ended up uniting people even if they have different views on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. With the exception of a few of the [Democratic Socialists of America] chapters, you really haven’t seen any difference of opinion when it comes to this,” one House Democrat told the outlet.

    “There are a couple of people, a handful of people, who are not part of the present, unanimous posture of progressives and Democrats,” said Jeremy Ben-Ami, president of liberal Jewish advocacy group J Street. “That’s where we are today in the immediate aftermath of this attack. I’m not going to say that’s where things will be in a week, two weeks, three weeks, but that’s where we are today.”

    DSA Defection

    Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-MI) declared in a Wednesday statement that the Democratic Socialists of America’s “inability to look at what has happened as terrorism is very upsetting and shocking,” and that he would be leaving the DSA over their stance on Israel.

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    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/12/2023 – 20:50

  • Remember, Disinflation Doesn't Equal Falling Prices
    Remember, Disinflation Doesn’t Equal Falling Prices

    While progress in the fight against inflation has been stalling in the past three months, the inflation rate has come down significantly since peaking in June 2022.

    However, as Statista’s Felix Richter notes, looking at the steep decline of the inflation rate since then, some people are probably thinking: “Great, inflation is cooling. But then why is everything still so expensive?”

    Whenever we’re discussing inflation coming down, it’s important to distinguish between disinflation and deflation.

    What we’ve seen over the past year and hope to see more of is disinflation, i.e. a deceleration of price increases (yes, increases).

    For the overall price level to actually come down, the inflation rate would have to drop below zero, which would signify deflation.

    While the Fed desperately wants inflation to come back down, it is aiming for 2 percent inflation, not deflation, because the latter creates a whole set of problems on its own.

    As the following chart shows, the rate of inflation (yellow line) has come down quite a bit from its June 2022 peak of 8.9 percent. Consumer prices (blue line) continue to climb, however, and are now 18.6 percent higher than they were in February 2020, just before the pandemic hit.

    Infographic: Disinflation Doesn't Equal Falling Price | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    So while some prices will or have already come back down from their peaks as supply chain disruptions and global crises recede – see gas prices for example – prices will continue to rise at the aggregate level, albeit hopefully at a slower rate.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/12/2023 – 20:40

  • Iran's Raisi & Saudi Crown Prince Hold 1st Ever Phone Call Amid Israel-Gaza War
    Iran’s Raisi & Saudi Crown Prince Hold 1st Ever Phone Call Amid Israel-Gaza War

    Via The Cradle,

    Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) held their first-ever telephone conversation late on Wednesday to discuss “the need to end war crimes against Palestine.”

    State-run news agency Saudi Press Agency (SPA) said MBS stressed the “necessity of adhering to the principles of international humanitarian law and expressed deep concern for the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza and its impact on civilians” and “reaffirmed the kingdom’s stance against targeting civilians in any way and the loss of innocent lives.”

    MbS doubled down on his support for the Palestinian cause and his support for “efforts aimed at achieving comprehensive and fair peace that ensures the Palestinian people’s legitimate rights.” 

    According to Mohammad Jamshidi, political advisor to the Iranian president, the crown prince warned that failing to recognize Palestinian rights would further inflame the situation, adding that “cooperation between Riyadh and Tehran can contribute effectively and quickly to putting an end to the conflict inside Palestine.” 

    Raisi emphasized that the issue of Palestine “cannot be solved” without giving the Palestinians full rights. 

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    The current situation in Palestine results from “repeated miscalculations by Western countries, led by the US,” Raisi said. 

    “Iran and Saudi Arabia, as major players in the region, can support the oppressed Palestinian people in the current circumstances, which are sensitive circumstances,” Raisi added. 

    Raisi also warned, “the crimes of the occupation and the American green light will cause devastating insecurity for [Israel] and its supporters.” 

    Iran and Saudi Arabia signed a historic Chinese-brokered reconciliation agreement in March this year to end years of regional tension between the two countries. 

    Several months later, Saudi Arabia entered US-sponsored talks to normalize ties with Israel. While publicly holding on to the Palestinian issue as a condition, Riyadh made major demands in exchange for a deal, including a firm defense treaty with Washington, help developing a nuclear program, and access to more advanced weaponry.

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    But Hamas “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood” and the devastating Israeli response against civilians in the Gaza Strip have seemingly eroded any hope of the deal being reached.

    According to The Cradle columnist Mohammad Sweidan, Riyadh will now “find it nigh near impossible to abandon the request for Israeli concessions, particularly with Tel Aviv’s aggressive bombardment of civilians in the Gaza Strip now a daily occurrence.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/12/2023 – 20:20

  • Scalise Drops Out Of Speaker's Race After Failing To Win Over GOP Holdouts
    Scalise Drops Out Of Speaker’s Race After Failing To Win Over GOP Holdouts

    Update (2005ET): Despite winning his party’s nomination by a margin of 113-99, Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) has dropped out of the Speaker race, after a group of GOP holdouts refused to vote for him.

    Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., speaks to reporters after a closed-door meeting of House Republicans during which he was nominated as their candidate for Speaker of the House, on Capitol Hill, Wednesday, Oct. 11, 2023 (AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib)

    The move leaves Republicans without a GOP nominee for the role, just nine days after former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) was ousted.

    “I was very clear we have to have everybody put their agendas on the side and focus on what this country needs this country is counting on us,” Scalise told reporters on Thursday, Axios reports. “But there’s some folks that really need to look in the mirror over the next couple of days and decide are we going to get it back on track, or they’re going to try to pursue their own agenda.”

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    As Axios further notes:

    Zoom in: Scalise won the nomination on Wednesday by a 113-99 margin, but on Thursday it became clear he wasn’t making the progress needed to risk a vote on the House floor.

    • The House GOP is in a tight spot, with any combination of five Republicans being enough to sink a speaker bid — at least without help from Democrats.

    What’s next: House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) narrowly lost the nomination to Scalise, and could now contest the nomination again.

    *  *  *

    After House Republicans narrowly nominated Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) to be the next speaker over Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) by a vote of 113 to 99, several GOP lawmakers publicly announced they wouldn’t support him in a chamber-wide vote.

    “They knew I was with [Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio] in the room, and I thought I might go with Scalise if everybody was gonna get behind Scalise, that was fine, but it’s just not that way,” said Rep. Barry Moore (R-AL) following a meeting with the House Freedom Caucus. “There’s just people that are not on his team.”

    At least six GOP lawmakers said they wouldn’t vote for Scalise, all but guaranteeing a repeat of January’s drawn out Speaker vote when Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) took 15 ballots to secure the position.

    “I just don’t think Steve’s got the votes,” Moore added.

    Scalise, 58, is a longtime member of House leadership favored by centrists and neocons. He needs at least 217 lawmakers to support his candidacy. Given the slim GOP majority in the chamber, and Democrats expected to nominate Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) to the post as they did during January’s Speakership elections, Scalise faces an uphill battle.

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    House Republicans are likely to meet behind closed doors today to try and hash out their differences before the next chamber-wide vote.

    Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX)

    Scalise can only afford to lose four votes on the floor. 

    Some members said they were frustrated by Scalise allies voting down an earlier measure aimed at raising the threshold to elect a speaker candidate to 217 — a majority of the House.

    “I put the amendment forward this morning to say, let’s figure this out, because I can count votes. I’m not a whip, but I can count votes,” said Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, who led the amendment that was backed by a significant number of GOP lawmakers.

    “I was just making it very clear that if you rush this to the floor, I’m a hard no. So we’ll go now have some conversations and go figure out where we’re gonna go.” -Fox News

    Following a meeting with GOP leaders, Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-SD) who leads the Main Street Caucus, said the division within the GOP “does not look good for the House or for the country.”

    “Frankly, I think it would be easier in a political environment where people understood that governing requires some give and take,” he added. “I never get everything I want in any negotiation. There are a lot of people around here who don’t understand that, and it makes it hard to govern. It is not a problem unique to the Republican Party, but it is on full display in our party today.”

    When asked if Republicans simply need to huddle in a room to settle their differences, Johnson replied: “I would like to be able to have the power to lock some people in some places, for sure.”

    As The Hill notes:

    IF HE GETS THE JOB, SCALISE INHERITS a race against the shutdown clock from his predecessor. Lawmakers have until Nov. 17 to fund the government or risk another shutdown, and multiple members, including Scalise, have said in recent days that Congress may need to once again rely on a stopgap spending bill to keep the lights on.

    The House will come into session at Noon.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/12/2023 – 20:03

  • Dumbocracy Achieved: ACT Test Scores For US Students Drop To 30-Year Low
    Dumbocracy Achieved: ACT Test Scores For US Students Drop To 30-Year Low

    The government-enforced lockdown of schools and months of forced remote learning during Covid have devastated the education of America’s future leaders. New data on ACT college admissions tests shows high school students’ scores have plunged to the lowest in over three decades.

    According to data published by ACT, the nonprofit organization that administers the college readiness exam, the average composite score on the ACT test fell to 19.5 for the class of 2023, a decline of .3 points from 2022. The average scores in mathematics, reading, and science subjects were below ACT College Readiness Benchmarks, indicating fewer seniors than ever are ready for college. 

    Source: AXIOS 

    “We are also continuing to see a rise in the number of seniors leaving high school without meeting any of the college readiness benchmarks, even as student GPAs continue to rise and students report that they feel prepared to be successful in college,” ACT CEO Janet Godwin wrote in a statement. 

    One of the best examples of a school system caught in a grading scandal is the Baltimore City Public Schools system. Investigative journalist Chris Papst of Fox45 News’ Project Baltimore has found dozens of schools with very few kids proficient in critical subjects on state exams despite some earning satisfactory grades. 

    Godwin continued, “The hard truth is that we are not doing enough to ensure that graduates are truly ready for postsecondary success in college and career. These systemic problems require sustained action and support at the policy level. This is not up to teachers and principals alone – it is a shared national priority and imperative.”

    About 1.4 million high school seniors took the ACT test, about 21% of them met benchmarks for college subjects. And a shocking 43% met none of these benchmarks. 

    Readers have well-understood the Covid crisis and government lockdowns unleashed a ‘learning poverty.’

    Last fall, Anthony Fauci told corporate media he had “nothing to do” with school lockdowns and the resulting learning loss among public school students. 

    But history shows Facui is a liar. 

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    Meanwhile, some universities and colleges no longer require applicants to submit ACT and SAT standardized tests. This may be because the education-industrial complex understands the dumbing down of the youth – plus, the continuation of the EDU bubble is only made possible by giving false promises of future success to the younger generation while strapping them with $100,000 in student debt. 

    Also, there needs to be a nationwide discussion on ‘woke’ math, and gender pronoun studies – and how these subjects will produce tomorrow’s rocket scientists. 

    The worsening implosion of the public school system is more free advertisement for parents to consider homeschooling. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/12/2023 – 20:00

  • RFK Jr. Sees Surge In Fundraising After Declaring Independent Run
    RFK Jr. Sees Surge In Fundraising After Declaring Independent Run

    Authored by Jeff Louderback via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Within hours of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s announcement that he will run for president as an independent and not a Democrat, the super PAC supporting his candidacy raised more than $11 million.

    Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. makes a campaign announcement at a press conference in Philadelphia, Pa. on Oct. 9, 2023. Mr. Kennedy announced he will end his Democratic primary bid and will run for president as an independent. (Jessica Kourkounis/Getty Images)

    American Values 2024 disclosed on Oct. 10 that it has generated $11.28 million since Mr. Kennedy told an audience in front of the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, “I’m here to declare myself an independent candidate for president of the United States.”

    Individual events have spurred bountiful fundraising for Mr. Kennedy. In September, a private fundraiser performance by musician Eric Clapton generated more than $2 million that was split between the campaign and American Values 2024.

    The organization tallied about $6.47 million in July from a mix of donors who are registered Democrats and Republicans, according to American Values 2024. That number included about $5 million collected during Mr. Kennedy’s testimony in a hearing about censorship before the House Judiciary Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government.

    Individuals can give as much as $3,300 to a political candidate’s campaign, according to the Federal Election Commission.

    Super political action committees (PACs) are allowed to raise unlimited sums of money from corporations, unions, associations, and individuals and “spend unlimited sums to overtly advocate for or against political candidates,” according to OpenSecrets, an organization that tracks money in U.S. politics and its impact on elections and public policy.

    Unlike traditional PACs, super PACS may not contribute money directly to political candidates.

    Prominent Democratic Party donors like Abby Rockefeller have contributed to American Values 2024, but Republican donors have given a majority of the money the super PAC has received, including former President Donald Trump donor Tim Mellon, according to American Values 2024 reports.

    Tony Lyons, co-chair of American Values 2024, spoke to The Epoch Times about the influx of support.

    “People feel that the Democratic National Committee was disenfranchising them and that Bobby would not get the nomination based on the rules the DNC was putting into place and the inflammatory statements they have made about him time after time,” he said.

    “They feel that their vote wouldn’t count, and that their donation wouldn’t be helpful because the primary would be rigged. Just as Bobby Kennedy sees a path to victory as an independent, so do the donors that were reluctant to contribute with him running as a Democrat,” Mr. Lyons explained.

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks at a campaign event in Philadelphia on Oct. 9, 2023. (NTD/Screenshot via NTD)

    George Washington, America’s first president, is the only independent candidate to win election to the nation’s highest office. No independent candidate has won an electoral vote in the past 50 years. America, Mr. Kennedy believes, is ready for “a new page in American politics.”

    “There have been independent candidates before. But this time is different. This time, the independent is going to win,” Mr. Kennedy said.

    During his Oct. 9 announcement in Philadelphia, Mr. Kennedy noted that  “three-fourths of Americans believe President (Joe) Biden is too old to govern effectively. President Trump faces multiple civil and criminal trials. Both have favorability ratings deep in negative territory.”

    He also referenced a recent Gallup poll showing that 63 percent of U.S. adults agree with the statement that the Republican and Democrat parties do “such a poor job” of representing Americans that “a third major party is needed.”

    A Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week indicated that Mr. Kennedy could draw support from around one in seven U.S. voters in the 2024 presidential election. In a three-way race, President Trump received 33 percent support compared to 31 percent for President Biden and 14 percent for Mr. Kennedy.

    Ahead of Mr. Kennedy’s Oct. 9 announcement, a poll commissioned by American Values 2024 and conducted by John Zogby Strategies showed that, in a three-way matchup, President Trump and President Biden were tied at 38 percent each, and Mr. Kennedy generated 19 percent support.

    “The media pundits will tell you we have no chance. They say my only impact will be to draw votes from other candidates,” Mr. Kennedy said on Oct. 9 in Philadelphia.

    “The Democrats are terrified I’ll spoil the election for President Biden. The Republicans fear I’ll spoil it for President Trump. The truth is—they’re both right! But only their inside-the-beltway myopia deludes them into thinking we have no chance to win.”

    American Values 2024 will hire surrogates to go out in public and amplify his message.

    “He [Mr. Kennedy] thinks this election will be won by reaching voters through podcasts and alternative media outlets that have more readers and viewers than legacy media,” Mr. Lyons said.

    American Values 2024 has raised around $28 million since its inception in fall 2022, according to Mr. Lyons. The organization believes it can raise $100 million by the end of December.

    Supporters of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. listen to the announcement that he will run as an independent for president, in Philadelphia, on Oct. 9, 2023. (Jeff Louderback/The Epoch Times)

    The super PAC is also building a volunteer network, launching a Robert F. Kennedy Jr. fitness program, and organizing car caravans to travel across the country. Some of the money will be used for targeted advertisements in newspapers and on billboards and social media.

    Since announcing his candidacy in April to challenge President Joe Biden for the 2024 Democrat party nomination, Mr. Kennedy has gained widespread support from conservative and moderate Republicans, independents, Libertarians, and moderate Democrats.

    Last week, the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) said that Mr. Kennedy would address the organization’s Investor Summit to Save America in Las Vegas later this month. Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy and Kari Lake, who narrowly lost a gubernatorial bid in Arizona last year and is now running for U.S. Senate, will also speak.

    “Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has a unique voice in advocating for the defunding of the weaponized bureaucracy and ensuring the constitutional right of medical freedom,” CPAC Chairman Matt Schlapp said in a statement. “Kennedy joining such an important event is a reflection of the splintering of the left-wing coalition that has gone full woke Marxist to the point that traditional liberals don’t feel welcome anymore.”

    Mr. Kennedy said that “declaring independence from the Democratic party” was a “painful” decision that he did not take lightly because of his family’s history with the party.

    During an August interview with The Epoch Times in Columbia, South Carolina, he said, “I’m a Democrat. The Democrat party has lost its way, and I want to return it to its traditional ideals.”

    Mr. Kennedy faced what he deemed multiple roadblocks to “fair primary elections” from the DNC. Earlier this year, the organization voted to give President Biden its full support. At the same meeting, the DNC voted to replace New Hampshire with South Carolina as the first-in-the-nation primary state. The organization has warned that New Hampshire will face potential penalties if that state’s Democrat primary does not comply with new primary calendar plans.

    Mr. Kennedy told supporters in New Hampshire that he would have to make a decision before Oct. 15 to run as an independent and that it would require about $15 million in funds to get on the ballot in all 50 states.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/12/2023 – 19:40

  • Ellison Testifies Bankman-Fried Was "Freaking Out" About Inability To Raise Capital From Saudis
    Ellison Testifies Bankman-Fried Was “Freaking Out” About Inability To Raise Capital From Saudis

    On her third day of testimony former Alameda Research Chief Executive Officer Caroline Ellison detailed more interactions with Alameda employees and how SBF was “freaking out” over not being able to raise cash from the Saudis. Her testimony also expounded on the hole in FTX’s balance sheet and the internal stress constantly shuffling loans caused at FTX and Alameda. 

    Bloomberg said Thursday that Ellison looked “more relaxed than in previous days” of testimony. We guess once you’ve detailed how you used the IDs of Thai hookers to set up fake crypto accounts to bribe the Chinese government, the rest of the fraud admissions just seem like easy work and just kinda roll off the tongue. 

    Among the items brought to light on day 3 of her testimony was the claim that SBF wouldn’t let her quit when she wanted to. Ellison said in court: “He said I couldn’t I was too important to Alameda and I should stay at Alameda.”

    On Thursday Ellison said she admitted to Alameda employees that the company likely wasn’t going to make it: “A lot of employees had been asking me about what was going on or what the implications was for them. I was hoping that some might stay, but if my goal was to get them to stay, I would have asked them to stay. My goal was to inform Alameda employees what had been going on and what the implications were.”

    She said the employees were grateful she was “open and honest with them.”

    She detailed more on Thursday about how SBF was “freaking out” about not being able to raise money from Mohammed bin Salman: “He told me he went to the Middle East and tried to raise funds there but it didn’t sound like he had success.” We had detailed in yesterday’s testimony that MBS was one place where FTX was potentially looking to raise capital. 

    Ellison again talked about how she was worried about Alameda’s lenders recalling loans in summer 2022. Talking about the 7 alternate balance sheets she used with FTX to lie about the company’s financial position, Ellison said Thursday: “I don’t recall if we discussed all of them, I know we discussed some.”

    She also told the jury how she wasn’t “as good a manager as she could be”, Bloomberg wrote. Ellison said in court: “By limiting factors in scaling I meant those were things that were preventing Alameda from doing as well and making as much money as we could. I thought the biggest factor was that [Sam] Trabucco and I weren’t as good managers or leaders as we could be and we weren’t pushing employees to you know make new things or do better in the way that I wished we were.”

    Ellison also admitted that Alameda had an “improper advantage” from being so close to FTX and having access to customer funds. In 2022, she had told Bloomberg that the entities were walled off from each other: “We definitely have a Chinese wall in terms of information sharing to ensure that no one in Alameda would get customer information from FTX or anything like that, or any sort of special treatment from FTX. It’s very important for FTX to be perceived as a fair, neutral marketplace where everyone gets an equal shot.”

    She said that communication broke down between her and SBF after their breakup, stating in court Thursday: “I tried to avoid [one on one conversations] and avoid spending much time in social settings. We talked sometimes outside of work. He still lived in the same apartment, so it’s hard to avoid that entirely.”

    “There were periods of time when he wasn’t paying attention to Alameda,” she also testified, helping make the point from the defense that SBF was not always aware of Alameda’s daily operations. 

    Ellison claimed she was unaware of government probes into FTX and Alameda until after a November meeting. She testified that the FBI confiscated her mother’s and boyfriend’s computers, both of whom were also involved with Alameda and FTX. Ellison pleaded guilty and agreed to cooperate with prosecutors in December after multiple meetings, including a lengthy one this Monday.

    Recall, we detailed Ellison’s sordid second day of testimony earlier, wherein she talked about falsely using the IDs of Thai hookers to bribe Chinese officials and how even FTX’s fabricated balance sheets, laden with FTX’s FTT token and other tokens closely affiliated with Bankman-Fried, were concerning. 

    On Wednesday, @teddyschleifer reported on X that “Caroline Ellison testified that Sam Bankman-Fried ordered her to lie in mid 2022 to Genesis, one of FTX’s lenders, about Alameda’s balance sheet,” he wrote. “Caroline prepared a bunch of bullshit balance-sheets that they could send, and Sam chose ‘Alternative 7’ as the best lie of the bunch.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/12/2023 – 19:20

  • The Welfare State's Destruction Of Faith In Freedom
    The Welfare State’s Destruction Of Faith In Freedom

    Authored by Jacob Hornberger via The Future of Freedom Foundation,

    As I read about the life and death of billionaire Charles Feeney, I could not help but think what America’s welfare-state way of life has done to destroy many people’s faith in freedom. 

    According to an article in the New York Times, Feeney was “a pioneer of duty-free shops and and investor in technology start-ups.” He became a billionaire. And then he donated all of his $8 billion fortune to charity. He left himself around $2 million.

    America’s welfare state way of life is based on the notion that the federal government is needed to force people to be good and caring to others. 

    That’s the idea, for example, behind Social Security.

    If there was no Social Security, it is said, there would be seniors dying in the streets.

    That’s because, they say, people, including children and grandchildren, cannot be trusted with the freedom to decide whether to honor their mother and father or grandparents on a voluntary basis. They must be forced to do so through the coercive apparatus of the Internal Revenue Service and the faceless bureaucracy of the Social Security Administration.

    It’s the same, for example, with public schooling.

    If the state didn’t force parents to herd their children into these governmental institutions, the poor would have no way to have their children educated.

    The notion that there would be people with money to help out others in need is considered ludicrous. 

    And then along come people like Charles Feeney, who are more than willing to help out others with money they have accumulated.

    Of course, there are countless instances of people helping others on a purely voluntary basis, but welfare-statists give them short shrift. 

    Consider, for examples, local drives to raise money for college scholarships for poorer students. Or food drives that are sometimes conducted at churches in America. People are more than willing to contribute to such drives. 

    In fact, guess who funds the churches themselves. No, not the government. The members of the church do that, on a purely voluntary basis, simply because they consider it an important thing that they wish to do.

    Imagine if the government had been funding churches for the past 225 years. Imagine if a libertarian came along and suggested that such funding be immediately terminated. Imagine the response: “If we did that, the churches would cease to exist. Do you libertarians honestly believe that people would fund churches all on their own? And where would the poor go to church? Only the rich would have churches.”

    Some would say that people don’t have enough money to donate to worthy causes. There is a good reason for that — the federal government’s income tax, which deprives people of an enormously large amount of money that could be saved, donated, invested, or spent. The more people are able to earn and keep, the more they are able to help out others. A society in which people are on the verge of starvation is a society where there is not going to be a large amount of donations to help out others. 

    Finally, there is something important to note about America’s welfare-state way of life: It does not reflect care and compassion, as welfare-warfare state proponents claim. That’s because care and compassion do not come from the coercive apparatus of the IRS and the faceless bureaucracy of the welfare state. They come only from the willing heart of the individual, who demonstrates such care and compassion by voluntarily helping others.

    What we need in America is a revival of faith in freedom, ourselves, others, and God. When that revival comes, the welfare-state way of life will be finished. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/12/2023 – 19:00

  • Menendez Charged With Conspiracy To Act As Foreign Agent Of Egypt
    Menendez Charged With Conspiracy To Act As Foreign Agent Of Egypt

    US Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) was hit with a new charge Thursday that he conspired to act as an agent of the Egyptian government while he was head of the Senate’s Foreign Relations Committee.

    In a superseding indictment filed in Manhattan federal court, Menendez was accused of violating the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA), which requires anyone acting as “an agent of a foreign principal” to register with the US government. Menendez was prohibited from doing so either way as a member of Congress.

    The new charge comes weeks after Menendez and his wife Nadine were indicted for allegedly accepting bribes, as well as having “promised to take and took a series of acts on behalf of Egypt, including on behalf of Egyptian military and intelligence officials.”

    According to the indictment, Menendez and his wife, along with business associate Wael Hana, met with an Egyptian intelligence official in Menendez’s Senate office in Washington DC, during which they discussed a US citizen who was injured in a 2015 airstrike by the Egyptian military – an incident which some members of Congress cited as a reason to withhold certain military aid to Egypt.

    Shortly after the meeting, the Egyptian official texted Hana that if Menendez took care of the matter, “he will sit very comfortably.”

    Hana texted back, “Orders, consider it done.”

    In an email, Hana’s attorney, Lawrence Lustberg, said the “new allegation that Wael Hana was part of a plot concocted over dinner to enlist Senator Menendez as an agent of the Egyptian Government is as absurd as it is false.”

    “As with the other charges in this indictment, Mr. Hana will vigorously defend against this new and baseless allegation,” he wrote.

    Menendez and his wife have pleaded not guilty to the charges lodged against them last month. Hana pleaded not guilty last month to charges including conspiracy to commit bribery.

    After Hana’s company was granted a lucrative monopoly by the Egyptian government to certify that all meat imported into that country met religious requirements, prosecutors said, Menendez urged U.S. agriculture officials to stop questioning the deal. –AP

    Menendez was also accused of accepting “cash, gold, payments toward a home mortgage, compensation for a low-or-no-show job, a luxury vehicle, and other things of value” as part of a “corrupt relationship” with businessman Fred Daibes.

    Daibes, a developer and former bank chairman, allegedly gave Menendez gold bars valued at approximately $400,000, in exchange for assistance in a case in which he faced federal bank charges.

    Instead of facing over 10 years in prison, Daibes, a felon, only ended up serving probation after striking an agreement with the US Attorney’s Office in New Jersey.

    “For purposes of the Federal Extortion Act, it makes no difference if the senator took an official act so long as he accepted the money and there was knowledge the money was in exchange for that official influence, even if he never carried out what he had promised he would do,” according to NBC Legal Analyst Danny Cevallos.

    Menendez disclosed that his family had accepted gold bars in 2020. Daibes encountered bank fraud charges that could have netted him up to a decade in prison for lying about a nearly $2 million loan from Mariner’s Bank, where Daibes served as chairman.

    Last year, however, New Jersey’s U.S. Attorney’s Office agreed to let Daibes plead guilty to one count and serve probation. They said Daibes had repaid the loan. -Fox News

    According to the report, Menendez, 69, is ‘close’ with US Attorney Philip Sellinger – having supported him for the position, while Sellinger had previously raised funds for Menendez’s campaign.

    Menendez also allegedly pushed prosecutors to grant leniency to friends of his associates.

    One businessman, Jose Uribe, bought Nadine Menendez a $60,000 Mercedes Benz after she killed a man in a 2018 crash.

    You know it’s bad when…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/12/2023 – 18:40

  • Beyond Crypto: Zero-Knowledge Proofs Show Potential From Voting To Finance
    Beyond Crypto: Zero-Knowledge Proofs Show Potential From Voting To Finance

    Authored by Andrew Singer via CoinTelegraph.com,

    In a world increasingly anxious about privacy and exploitation of one’s personal data by governments, corporations, social media platforms and banks, zero-knowledge proofs may offer some relief. 

    Indeed, this emerging cryptographic protocol could partially remedy two rapidly growing global deficits: privacy and truth.

    ZK-proofs have already found a home within the cryptocurrency and blockchain sector — enabling scaling protocols to make Ethereum transactions faster and cheaper, for example. But this may just be the beginning. 

    One day, ZK-proofs could help convince your bank that your income is above a certain threshold — to qualify for a mortgage, for example — without revealing your actual income. Or prove to the election authorities that you are a resident or citizen without giving them your name, driver’s license or passport.

    ZK-proofs open up a new world of potential applications, including “anonymous voting, decentralized games, proving personal information without fully disclosing your personal information, and fighting against fake news by proving the source of the news,” Polygon co-founder Jordi Baylina tells Magazine.

    To this point, some in the cryptographic community already view ZK-proofs as a potential weapon in the looming struggle against false information, including AI-altered documents, images and identities. 

    “We may have a technological battle for truth coming up where ZK can play a critical part,” prize-winning cryptographer Jens Groth tells Magazine. “There is this idea of proof-carrying data,” i.e., data that carries within itself proofs of correctness including origin and provenance data, “so nirvana would be that all data we get are verified data.”

    In some industry sectors like finance, ZK-proofs may profoundly alter how business is conducted. “We see this revolutionizing the audit industry,” Proven co-founder and CEO Rich Dewey tells Magazine in connection with ZK-enabled proof-of-solvency protocols, like the one his tech firm has developed. “The only question is the timeline.” 

    Requiring fewer resources

    Even though ZK-proofs were first presented back in the 1980s by researchers Shafi Goldwasser, Silvio Micali and Charles Rackoff, only in the past decade have they had their “big breakthrough,” according to Baylina.

    “Now it’s possible to prove any generic statement.” This statement — sometimes called a circuit — “can be programmed with a specific language and can be anything,” Baylina says. 

    ZK-proofs are computationally complex, which has arguably slowed their development, but their core intuition seems simple enough. As described in a forthcoming paper by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: 

    By using a zero-knowledge proof (ZKP), a party can prove to other parties that a computation was executed correctly. There is no need to replicate the computation—only the proof needs to be verified. Ideally, verifying a ZKP needs significantly less resources than re-executing the computation.”

    What follows are some of the promising ZK-proof use cases on the table today — beyond the strict confines of the crypto sector — that may or may not involve the use of blockchains.

    ZK-proofs require fewer resources when re-executing a computation. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

    Verifying digital voting 

    Electronic voting has been slow to catch on globally, but if and when it does, the odds are that ZK-proofs will play a prominent part. ZK-proofs are already being used in e-voting systems in trials in a number of Swiss towns and cantons, Dahlia Malkhi, distinguished scientist of Chainlink Labs, tells Magazine.

    “ZK-proofs can add verifiability to an online election, allowing anyone to check that the votes were counted correctly,” explains Malkhi, without revealing how individuals voted — a key concern with electronic voting, she says. 

    Cryptographic electronic voting systems have been around for decades, Malkhi adds, but their adoption has been moderate. On the technical side, one of the challenges has been “the compromise of end-user devices, which ZK-proofs don’t protect against.”

    There are other obstacles, too, that are beyond ZK-proofs purview or ability to control — which also may suggest their limitations. 

    Electronic voting requires a credible “digital identity” system, i.e., a link to “real world” information that isn’t always easy to secure. (Think of all those voting rolls on aged paper ledgers.) “ZK by itself cannot bootstrap e-voting,” Malkhi says. 

    Cryptographer Groth, like Malkhi, cites the need for some sort of “trust anchor” to make ZK-proofs impactful in everyday life. “Zero-knowledge proofs often need a hook to reality.”  

    Electronic “ballot boxes” like this could benefit from the added security of ZK-proofs. (Fred Miller)

    Maybe one day, thanks to ZK-proofs, someone will be able to prove that they are older than 18 years of age or a United Kingdom citizen without having to pull out a driver’s license or passport, Groth tells Magazine, but “you cannot prove you’re over 18 out of thin air. You need the trust anchor that establishes your age,” he says, i.e., some authority that verifies your citizenship or birth year, adding:

    In the future, organizations may issue ZK-friendly trust anchors, but right now, it is not common practice, so you have a bit of a chicken-and-egg problem.”

    Privacy safeguards for CBDCs

    Today, the world seems awash with central bank digital currency projects. According to the Atlantic Council, 130 countries representing 98% of global GDP are now exploring state-issued digital money. 

    But CBDCs come freighted with privacy questions, and some fear they could be misused by governments to surveil their own populations, for instance.

    That is why high privacy guarantees are “at the core of most CBDC projects today,” Jonas Gross, chairman of the Digital Euro Association, tells Magazine. 

    ZK-proofs can be part of the solution, he adds, and it is for this reason that “various central banks are studying [ZK-proof] applications — for example, in the U.K., Japan and South Korea.” 

    “If privacy is a top priority, ZK-proofs should be considered,” Remo Nyffenegger, a co-author of the St. Louis Fed paper cited above and research assistant at the Center for Innovative Finance at the University of Basel, tells Magazine. 

    Indeed, the European Central Bank published a regulatory proposal for the digital euro in late June “and states therein that zero-knowledge proofs should be considered in the CBDC tech stack,” he adds.

    Again, there may be limits on what exactly ZK-proofs can do by themselves. “I don’t see using ZK-proofs [alone] as sufficient because ongoing political discussions show that not all CBDC-related data will be obfuscated if ZK-proofs are used,” Gross comments. “High privacy also needs to be supported by regulation and educational efforts around the actual degree of privacy of a CBDC.”

    Exposing an altered photo

    AI apps are now so powerful that distinguishing between machine-generated images or documents and those created by human beings is already problematic. Things will only get worse, but ZK-proofs may offer at least a partial remedy.

    “Blockchain tech and ZK-proofs could be used as built-in safeguards in these systems to verify the origin, authenticity, and ownership of AI-generated files and manage some of the risks associated with AI-generated content,” says Malkhi, while Groth adds:

    There is interesting new research showing applications of ZK-proofs to demonstrate, for example, you’ve not altered a photo too much — i.e., combating fake news.”

    High-end cameras that digitally sign photos along with metadata like location and timestamp are already on the market and can establish authenticity, continues Malkhi. The current problem is that these digital files are often enormous — much too large to post on a news service’s website, for instance. 

    But with ZK-proofs, their file size can be substantially reduced, making them practical to use online while preserving critical verification elements. “It could prove that the recording or image has not been altered, maybe [including] even the date, without revealing identity or location or whatever,” adds Baylina. 

    Proof-of-solvency with ZK-proofs?

    Many believe that finance will be the first major business sector to be impacted by ZK-proofs. Indeed, 41% of respondents in Mina Foundation’s “State of Zero-knowledge Report 2022” agreed that finance was the industry “most in need of ZKPs,” far ahead of healthcare (12%), social media (5%) and e-commerce (3%).   

    In March, Mexican cryptocurrency exchange Bitso announced a partnership with tech firm Proven to implement a “proof of solvency” solution that relies on ZK-proofs. This protocol will soon enable investors, regulators and others to know whether the exchange is solvent — i.e., its obligations are less than its assets — based on daily reports. 

    One of the more ingenious aspects of Proven’s protocol is that it involves the exchange’s customers in the process of keeping the exchange honest. It’s a sort of crowd-sourcing version of auditing.

    Co-founders Dewey and Agustin Lebron tell Magazine that every day, an exchange (e.g., Bitso) publishes a cryptographic proof-of-solvency attestation. And when it does, each individual client/user of the exchange is issued a “receipt” that reflects that individual’s unique holdings. Millions of digital receipts might be issued on a daily basis. 

    What if one day a customer doesn’t receive a daily receipt, or it’s wrong? That user might take to Twitter or some other social media venue and complain or ask questions. Have others experienced something similar? A thread might grow.

    This protocol relies on the law of big numbers. Bitso, for instance, has some five million users, and the presumption is that a critical mass of complainants might surface quickly, collectively waving a red flag that might prompt further investigation. 

    This ZK-proofs-based protocol has another advantage, too, according to Bitso. It provides “a proof-of-solvency that can be confirmed without revealing all of that information to a third party. All an auditor needs to do is run the zk-SNARK protocol to come to the conclusion that the proof is true.” 

    According to Groth, the use of ZK-proofs to demonstrate financial solvency “gained more traction after the FTX implosion.” Indeed, if such a protocol had been available last year, the Bahamas-based exchange’s meltdown might have been avoided, some say — or at least its wrongdoing would have come to light sooner. 

    Interestingly, FTX Japan, now rebranded as Liquid Japan, has been using Proven’s proof-of-solvency technology since its recent re-launch in early September. “With the adoption of Proof of Solvency, we can now prove it [solvency] in a cryptographic manner that is verifiable by 3rd parties,” notes the company, adding:

    We are starting to work on increasing the frequency of publishing the Proof of Solvency to 1x day by the end of 2023.”

    A snapshot of Liquid’s proof-of-solvency widget. (Liquid)

    “Immutable” tracking of goods

    “ZK-proofs can become very relevant in the context of digital identities, whether they are issued by the government or private entities,” adds Nyffenegger. They could prove that you are not included on some government sanctions list without revealing who you are, for instance.

    ZK-proofs potential use in supply chains is also frequently cited. But the difficulty here, as with e-voting, is that this requires connecting to a trustworthy “real-world information” source, which can authenticate the date an order was shipped from the factory, for instance. 

    “ZK-proof-based supply chain tracking systems haven’t been battle-tested long enough in live environments,” notes Malkhi, adding that that could soon change:

    The potential of ZK-proofs here is vast — helping to improve transparency and reduce the potential impact of fraud by enabling the immutable, real-time tracking of goods.” 

    It should be added that while blockchains provide some of ZK-proof’s first exciting use cases, the technology does not require blockchain technology to work — but they are surely helpful.

    “They are just a very suitable tool for blockchains because they provide proofs of correct computation — which aligns well with the need for verifiability on blockchains — while hiding as much information as possible,” Johannes Sedlmeir,  a researcher at the University of Luxembourg’s Interdisciplinary Centre for Security, Reliability and Trust, tells Magazine.

    With a blockchain platform, a verifier can check if a certain “hash” appears somewhere on the blockchain “and hence binds me as a prover,” he adds. 

    Blockchains aren’t required for Proven’s proof-of-solvency protocol to work, Lebron tells Magazine, though it’s always useful to have validators on-chain. It appears to be more of a “like to have” than a “need to have” circumstance. 

    Obstacles remain

    What obstacles still need to be overcome before ZK-proofs become commonplace? Malkhi has already cited the challenges with “bridging to the real world,” and this would well prove the biggest hurdle to surmount before ZK technology becomes mainstream, in her view. 

    However, other barriers remain that might require laws and regulations to overcome. Will ZK claims be accepted in court, for instance? 

    Scaling also remains a challenge in many use cases given that there is, at present, no “standardized way to ‘program,’” says Malkhi, making it difficult for developers to integrate proofs into their apps.

    To this last point, Proven’s protocol with Bitso requires some five million unique “receipts” to be issued monthly (though soon daily) to Bitso users, but Proven says this isn’t an issue. “We figured out how to scale,” co-founder Lebron says.

    Complexity is another potential sticking point. “For small- to medium-size assertions, we already have a good ZK system,” cryptographer Groth tells Magazine. “For large assertions, we still need to improve efficiency.” ZK-proofs like SNARKs can be cheap to verify, “but the prover pays a large performance overhead compared to native computation,” he adds.

    Becoming “magnitudes cheaper”

    The user experience needs to improve, too. “Using a technology secured by ZK-proofs for an everyday activity like buying groceries should be so seamless that the user doesn’t even know,” says Baylina. 

    “The other thing we need is time,” Baylina says. Protocols like Polygon’s zk-Ethereum Virtual Machine are still new but are becoming more usable all the time. “As Polygon zkEVM matures, over the next year, we anticipate it will become orders of magnitudes cheaper.”

    Given these potential roadblocks, how long might it take before the technology becomes commonplace? 

    “I believe five years is too short of a time frame owing to the current TRLs [technology readiness levels] of ZK-proofs,” says Sedlmeir, referencing the finance sector specifically. While ZK-proofs have matured rapidly in recent years, they “are still complex to implement and prover performance is still a significant bottleneck.” 

    There might be a transition period as ZK-proof works in tandem with traditional protocols, as in financial auditing. Proven’s Dewey envisioned working “hand in glove” with traditional Big Four audit firms for a time. 

    Vast potential

    In sum, ZK-proofs still face challenges. They can’t work in isolation. They still need to be attached to a truth source or “oracle.” Doubts about computational complexity, usability and scalability remain as well. 

    But if these hurdles are surmounted, ZK-proofs could offer a 21st-century solution to not only the “fake news” challenge but also the privacy quandary as with CBDCs, providing just enough anonymity for users to comfortably use state-issued digital money but enough accountability so governments can be assured fraudsters or money launderers aren’t infiltrating their networks. 

    As the technology and the underlying infrastructure improve, summarizes Malkhi, “ZK-proofs have vast potential to enable an internet where the majority of contracts are underpinned by cryptographic guarantees.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/12/2023 – 18:20

  • Kirby Bluntly Says Ukraine Aid "Near End Of The Rope" & Won't Be "Indefinite" 
    Kirby Bluntly Says Ukraine Aid “Near End Of The Rope” & Won’t Be “Indefinite” 

    In a surprise and stunning admission, given only a week ago these words might have been unthinkable coming straight from the White House, Biden’s national security council spokesman John Kirby bluntly admitted that funding for Ukraine is “coming near the end of the rope” and is “not going to be indefinite.“

    He had said the words in a Wednesday afternoon press briefing wherein he unveiled a new $200 million arms package for Ukraine, which is drawn from previously Congressionally approved funds. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Kirby detailed that this latest package includes HIMARS ammunition, artillery shells, anti-tank weapons, and other equipment. Here’s what he said:

    “In the near term, we’ve got appropriations and authorities…for Ukraine and for Israel, but you don’t wanna be trying to bake in long-term support when you’re at the end of the rope.”

    But interestingly this new $200 million was apparently surplus from the infamous “accounting error”: 

    According to the Pentagon, the $200 million package for Ukraine used funds made available by a Pentagon “accounting error” that overvalued previous arms shipped into the conflict. As the White House has been struggling to get Congress to authorize more Ukraine spending, the Pentagon has said it has about $5 billion in Presidential Drawdown Authority, which allows the US to ship weapons straight from its own military stockpiles.

    According to more details of the package, the $200 million will purchase:

    • AIM-9M missiles for air defense
    • Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (c-UAS) equipment
    • Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS)
    • 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds
    • Precision aerial munitions
    • Electronic warfare equipment
    • Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles
    • AT-4 anti-armor systems
    • Small arms and more than 16 million rounds of small arms ammunition
    • Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing
    • Spare parts, training munitions, maintenance, and other field equipment

    In more “normal” times we might expect Kirby’s bluntly asserting that Ukraine funding is “not going to be indefinite” to result in a massive D.C. beltway and mainstream media uproar, but those same MSM politicians pundits are now consumed with Israel-Gaza developments.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The spotlight has certainly moved away from Ukraine. Instead, the administration is preparing to bolster urgent defense aid to Israel as it continues anti-Hamas operations in Gaza. The Pentagon has said it is committed to doing “both” – that is providing defense aid and weapons to Israel and Kiev. Military assets are now being moved to the eastern Mediterranean region.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/12/2023 – 18:00

  • NBC News Instantly Exposed As Liars After Claiming They "Gained Access" To X Community Notes System
    NBC News Instantly Exposed As Liars After Claiming They “Gained Access” To X Community Notes System

    Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

    When NBC News published a hit piece claiming that Twitter/X’s Community Notes fact checking system rarely corrects posts and asserting that they “gained access” to the system, both claims were instantly revealed to be untrue… by Community Notes itself.

    “Elon Musk has touted Community Notes as a way to fight false and misleading information on X,” NBC News tweeted.

    The outlet then declared”@NBCNews gained access to the system, and found that on posts containing known misinformation, few posts were ever corrected. Many fact-checks were delayed.”

    The claims were quickly revealed to be complete BS, hilariously by Community Notes:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    One note reads, “NBC did not ‘gain access’ to any special Twitter system they merely had one of the many thousands of community notes contributors show them that some misleading posts had yet to have any notes added.”

    It adds that “Any 6 month old account with a verified phone number can join the program.”

    Another points out that it is completely erroneous to suggest some back room employee is approving notes, as implied by NBC.

    NBC News set out to make people think Community Notes doesn’t work and ended up proving the exact opposite:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

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    As we highlighted yesterday, The EU is threatening to block X in its member states, claiming that Musk is allowing ‘disinformation’ to be spread, but without citing any specific examples:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

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    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/12/2023 – 17:40

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