• All Of Us Are In Danger: When Anti-Government Speech Becomes Sedition
  All Of Us Are In Danger: When Anti-Government Speech Becomes Sedition

  Authored by John and Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

  “If you can’t say ‘F@#k’ you can’t say, ‘F@#k’ the government.’”

  – Lenny Bruce, comedian

  Anti-government speech has become a four-letter word.

  

  In more and more cases, the government is declaring war on what should be protected political speech whenever it challenges the government’s power, reveals the government’s corruption, exposes the government’s lies, and encourages the citizenry to push back against the government’s many injustices.

  Indeed, there is a long and growing list of the kinds of speech that the government considers dangerous enough to red flag and subject to censorship, surveillance, investigation and prosecution: hate speech, conspiratorial speech, treasonous speech, threatening speech, inflammatory speech, radical speech, anti-government speech, extremist speech, etc.

  Things are about to get even dicier for those who believe in fully exercising their right to political expression.

  Indeed, the government’s seditious conspiracy charges against Stewart Rhodes, the founder of Oath Keepers, and several of his associates for their alleged involvement in the January 6 Capitol riots puts the entire concept of anti-government political expression on trial.

  Enacted during the Civil War to prosecute secessionists, seditious conspiracy makes it a crime for two or more individuals to conspire to “‘overthrow, put down, or to destroy by force’ the U.S. government, or to levy war against it, or to oppose by force and try to prevent the execution of any law.”

  It’s a hard charge to prove, and the government’s track record hasn’t been the greatest.

  It’s been almost a decade since the government tried to make a seditious conspiracy charge stick—against a small Christian militia accused of plotting to kill a police officer and attack attendees at his funeral in order to start a civil war—and it lost the case.

  Although the government was able to show that the Hutaree had strong anti-government views, the judge ruled in U.S. v. Stone that “[O]ffensive speech and a conspiracy to do something other than forcibly resist a positive show of authority by the Federal Government is not enough to sustain a charge of seditious conspiracy.”

  Whether or not prosecutors are able to prove their case that Rhodes and his followers intended to actually overthrow the government, the blowback will be felt far and wide by anyone whose political views can be labeled “anti-government.”

  All of us are in danger.

  In recent years, the government has used the phrase “domestic terrorist” interchangeably with “anti-government,” “extremist” and “terrorist” to describe anyone who might fall somewhere on a very broad spectrum of viewpoints that could be considered “dangerous.”

  The ramifications are so far-reaching as to render almost every American with an opinion about the government or who knows someone with an opinion about the government an extremist in word, deed, thought or by association.

  You see, the government doesn’t care if you or someone you know has a legitimate grievance. It doesn’t care if your criticisms are well-founded. And it certainly doesn’t care if you have a First Amendment right to speak truth to power.

  What the government cares about is whether what you’re thinking or speaking or sharing or consuming as information has the potential to challenge its stranglehold on power.

  Why else would the FBI, CIA, NSA and other government agencies be investing in corporate surveillance technologies that can mine constitutionally protected speech on social media platforms such as Facebook, Twitter and Instagram?

  Why else would the Biden Administration be likening those who share “false or misleading narratives and conspiracy theories, and other forms of mis- dis- and mal-information” to terrorists?

  According to the Department of Homeland Security’s terrorism bulletin, “[T]hreat actors seek to exacerbate societal friction to sow discord and undermine public trust in government institutions to encourage unrest, which could potentially inspire acts of violence.”

  By the government’s own definition, America’s founders would be considered domestic extremists for the heavily charged rhetoric they used to birth this nation.

  Thomas Jefferson and Benjamin Franklin would certainly be placed on a terrorist watch list for suggesting that Americans should not only take up arms but be prepared to shed blood in order to protect their liberties.

  “What country can preserve its liberties if their rulers are not warned from time to time that their people preserve the spirit of resistance. Let them take arms,” declared Jefferson. He also concluded that “the tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.”

  Observed Franklin:

  “Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!”

  Thomas Paine, Marquis De Lafayette, John Adams and Patrick Henry would certainly be labelled domestic extremists for exhorting Americans to defend themselves against the government if it violates their rights.

  “It is the duty of the patriot to protect his country from its government,” insisted Paine.

  “When the government violates the people’s rights,” Lafayette warned, “insurrection is, for the people and for each portion of the people, the most sacred of the rights and the most indispensable of duties.”

  Adams cautioned, “A settled plan to deprive the people of all the benefits, blessings and ends of the contract, to subvert the fundamentals of the constitution, to deprive them of all share in making and executing laws, will justify a revolution.”

  And who could forget Patrick Henry with his ultimatum: “Give me liberty or give me death!”

  Conduct your own experiment into the government’s tolerance of speech that challenges its authority, and see for yourself: stand on a street corner—or in a courtroom, at a city council meeting or on a university campus— and try denouncing the government with some of the founders’ rhetoric.

  My guess is that you won’t last long before you get thrown out, shut up, threatened with arrest or at the very least accused of being a radical, a troublemaker, a sovereign citizen, a conspiratorialist or an extremist.

  Or maybe you’ll just be fined.

  It’s happening all across the country.

  In Punta Gorda, Florida, for instance, two political activists were fined $3000 for displaying protest flags with political messages that violated the city’s ordinance banning signs, clothing and other graphic displays containing words that the city deems “indecent.”

  During the first month of the new ordinance being enacted, Andrew Sheets was cited four times by police for violating the ordinance by displaying phrases which said “F@#k Policing 4 Profit,” “F@#k Trump,” and “F@#k Biden.” Richard Massey was cited for violating the ordinance by displaying a sign which proclaimed, “F@#k Punta Gorda, trying to illegally kill free speech.”

  Coming to the defense of the two activists, The Rutherford Institute challenged the City of Punta Gorda’s ban on indecent speech as unconstitutionally vague and a violation of the First Amendment’s safeguards for political speech that may not be censored or punished by the government.

  We won the first round, with the Charlotte County Circuit Court ruling against the City, noting that the ordinance was “designed to cause the preemptive self-silencing of speakers whose messages are entitled to constitutional protection.”

  In other words, as the court recognized, the ordinance was clearly designed to chill political speech, which is protected under the First Amendment.

  You see, the right of political free speech is the basis of all liberty.

  No matter what one’s political persuasion might be, every American has a First Amendment right to protest government programs or policies with which they might disagree.

  The right to disagree with and speak out against the government is the quintessential freedom.

  Every individual has a right to speak truth to power using every nonviolent means available.

  This is why the First Amendment is so critical. It gives the citizenry the right to speak freely, protest peacefully, expose government wrongdoing, and criticize the government without fear of reprisal.

  Americans of all stripes would do well to remember that those who question the motives of government provide a necessary counterpoint to those who would blindly follow where politicians choose to lead.

  We don’t have to agree with every criticism of the government, but we must defend the rights of all individuals to speak freely without fear of punishment or threat of banishment.

  This is how freedom rises or falls.

  As comedian Lenny Bruce, a lifelong champion of free speech, remarked, “If you can’t say ‘F@#k’ you can’t say, ‘F@#k’ the government.’”

  Bruce, foul-mouthed, insightful, irreverent, and incredibly funny, was one of the First Amendment’s greatest champions who dared to “speak the unspeakable” about race, religion, sexuality and politics. As Village Voice writer Nat Hentoff attests, Bruce was “not only a paladin of free speech but also a still-penetrating, woundingly hilarious speaker of truth to the powerful and the complacent.”

  Bruce died in 1966, but not before being convicted of alleged obscenity for challenging his audience’s covert prejudices by brandishing unmentionable words that, if uttered today, would not only get you ostracized but could get you arrested and charged with a hate crime.

  Hentoff, who testified in Bruce’s defense at his trial, recounts that Lenny used to say, “What I wanted people to dig is the lie. Certain words were suppressed to keep the lie going. But if you do them, you should be able to say the words.”

  Not much has changed in the 50-plus years since Bruce died. In fact, it’s gotten worse.

  What we’re dealing with today is a government that wants to suppress dangerous words—words about its warring empire, words about its land grabs, words about its militarized police, words about its killing, its poisoning and its corruption—in order to keep its lies going.

  What we are witnessing is a nation undergoing a nervous breakdown over this growing tension between our increasingly untenable reality and the lies being perpetrated by a government that has grown too power-hungry, egotistical, militaristic and disconnected from its revolutionary birthright.

  The only therapy is the truth and nothing but the truth.

  If the government censors get their way, there will be no more First Amendment.

  There will be no more Bill of Rights.

  And, as I point out in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, there will be no more freedom in America as we have known it.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 23:40

• These Are The Top 10 EV Battery Manufacturers In 2022
  These Are The Top 10 EV Battery Manufacturers In 2022

  The global electric vehicle (EV) battery market is expected to grow from $17 billion to more than $95 billion between 2019 and 2028.

  With increasing demand to decarbonize the transportation sector, companies producing the batteries that power EVs have seen substantial momentum.

  Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti and Sabrina Lam have updated their previous infographic to show the world’s biggest battery manufacturers in 2022.

  

  Chinese Dominance

  Despite efforts from the United States and Europe to increase the domestic production of batteries, the market is still dominated by Asian suppliers.

  The top 10 producers are all Asian companies.

  Currently, Chinese companies make up 56% of the EV battery market, followed by Korean companies (26%) and Japanese manufacturers (10%).

  The leading battery supplier, CATL, expanded its market share from 32% in 2021 to 34% in 2022. One-third of the world’s EV batteries come from the Chinese company. CATL provides lithium-ion batteries to Tesla, Peugeot, Hyundai, Honda, BMW, Toyota, Volkswagen, and Volvo.

  

  Despite facing strict scrutiny after EV battery-fire recalls in the United States, LG Energy Solution remains the second-biggest battery manufacturer. In 2021, the South Korean supplier agreed to reimburse General Motors $1.9 billion to cover the 143,000 Chevy Bolt EVs recalled due to fire risks from faulty batteries.

  BYD took the third spot from Panasonic as it nearly doubled its market share over the last year. The Warren Buffett-backed company is the world’s third-largest automaker by market cap, but it also produces batteries sold in markets around the world. Recent sales figures point to BYD overtaking LG Energy Solution in market share the coming months or years.

  The Age of Battery Power

  Electric vehicles are here to stay, while internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles are set to fade away in the coming decades. Recently, General Motors announced that it aims to stop selling ICE vehicles by 2035, while Audi plans to stop producing such models by 2033.

  Besides EVs, battery technology is essential for the energy transition, providing storage capacity for intermittent solar and wind generation.

  As battery makers work to supply the EV transition’s increasing demand and improve energy density in their products, we can expect more interesting developments within this industry.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 23:20

• Vladimir Putin's Battle Cry Against The Deep State
  Vladimir Putin’s Battle Cry Against The Deep State

  Authored by Oscar Silva-Valladares via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

  The recent ceremony of accession of four Ukrainian regions to Russia brought a speech from President Putin that outlined the reasons behind Russia’s current struggles, the character and identify of its foes and, more importantly, laid the groundwork for Russia’s next level of confrontation with the West beyond the ongoing military conflict in Ukraine.  In his speech, Putin clearly defined the present fight as a worldwide battle in which Russia plays a leading role against the Deep State that ultimately runs the West and which uses all available tools – including military, economic, cultural, and social – in its attempt to preserve unipolar world domination.

  

  Putin’s words were directed to three distinctive audiences: the collective West, the Global South and Russia. He went back to Middle Ages history to remind the origins and impact of Western resource exploitation and colonialism in the Americas, Asia and Africa through imperialistic wars, racism, and slavery.  He touched upon the military exploits of the 20th century led primarily by the US and its allies and its impact in Germany and Japan at the end of the Second World War, Korea in the 1950s, Vietnam in the 1960-70s and its latest failed adventures in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Afghanistan. He also highlighted the dire days of Russia during the 1990s and the Western powers’ attempts to turn it into a dismembered and passive cheap natural resources outlet. Putin’s message to Russians had nationalistic and religious tones, touching on the defence of traditional family values as a call to arms against the threat caused by dwindling population growth. He also named US monetary printing as one of the key tools used by the Western establishment to achieve its self-preservation and supremacy goals, reminding that paper doesn’t feed nor warms human beings.

  It would be tempting to see this speech narrowly as just another manifestation of Russia’s position in the big geopolitical battles, but what Putin has done is setting international rivalry in deep historical and cultural terms which have an undoubted appeal across the globe. Critics will see Putin’s benign characterization of Russia as a cynical ploy that hides the country’s role, through its commanding post in the Soviet Union, in the subjugation of Eastern European countries after World War II, but nevertheless the Global South will see things differently.

  Putin’s scathing attack against the West is a multi-headed weapon as it rallied to the conservative segments of a population dismayed by globalism imposing a deeply disturbing agenda that goes against traditional views on family, marriage and sex, but it also has leftist tones, as his criticism also goes against the same globalism that is worsening wealth disparity, and even a libertarian appeal as he referred to the imposition of states of emergency, media control and sanctions on other societies as examples of Western made totalitarianism. Putin’s primary target was the Anglo-Saxon establishment, mainly the US and Great Britain, and he attempted to build a wedge within the West as he focused on sovereignty, a cry with resonance in countries like Hungary and Italy, and on traditional anti-war sentiments in Germany and Japan by remembering the horrors of the World War II bombings in Dresden, Hamburg, Cologne, Hiroshima, and Nagasaki.

  An immediate consequence of Putin’s rhetorical escalation will be increased US pressure on the Global South to follow anti-Russian sanctions.  To successfully counter this menace, and as Russia needs its continuous support, it will have to combine ideology with pragmatic and tangible support in terms of access to critical energy and food resources to the poorer countries. The recent abstentions of China, India and Brazil on a UN Security Council resolution calling for condemnation of the Ukraine referenda no doubt were driven by these countries’ expectations on Russia’s future actions.

  Following the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, and as it gradually abandoned socialism, Russia lost the powerful ideological appeal that it had during decades in the Global South and in the West’s anti-establishment segments.  The most remarkable aspect of Putin’s recent speech is bringing back ideological confrontation into the forefront. This new battle looks to present the West’s defence of democracy, freedom, and sovereignty as hollow and hypocritical. A combined message of anti-colonialism and conservatism is a powerful tool but Putin’s indirect and subtle appeal to people power as the only way to finally counter the Deep State is even stronger. Putin’s identification of the Deep State as humanity’s foe may be his ultimate ideological legacy, something avoidable if the US would have resigned itself to be just a normal country and to focus primarily on its people’s prosperity.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 23:00

• A Visual Guide To Stagflation, Inflation, & Deflation
  A Visual Guide To Stagflation, Inflation, & Deflation

  Today, high inflation and slowing economic growth have contributed to stagflation worries.

  As of August 2022, the U.S. inflation rate has risen to 8.3%, above the central bank target of 2%. Yet unlike the last period of stagflation in the 1970s, unemployment – a key ingredient for stagflation – remains low.

  Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld shows in this infographic from New York Life Investments, the key differences between stagflation, inflation, and deflation along with the broader economic implications of each.

  

  Main Features of Inflationary Environments

  What are the main characteristics of each inflationary scenario?

  

  The key markers of stagflation are weak growth, persistent inflation, and structural unemployment—meaning that high unemployment levels continue beyond a recession.

  In a stagflationary scenario, inflation expectations continue to rise each year. This can happen when inflation stays too high for too long, enough for expectations to shift across the economy. This was the case in the U.S. in the 1970s, until the Federal Reserve fought inflation with steep interest rate hikes.

  Here’s a closer look at some of the main causes of each scenario and how they’ve historically impacted households and businesses.

  1. Stagflation

  The term stagflation is the combination of ‘stagnation’ and ‘inflation’.

  The primary causes include the expansion of the money supply feeding into higher inflation, as well as supply shocks, which can drag on economic growth.

  During periods of stagflation, consumers spend more on items such as food and clothing, while earning less—reducing their purchasing power. Less purchasing power can eventually cause people to buy less, leading to falling corporate revenues, which can ripple across the economy.

  Case Study: 1970s Stagflation

  The stagflation of the 1970s saw inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, increase from 1% to 14% between 1964 and 1980.

  Price pressures, driven by skyrocketing energy prices in the 1970s, contributed to a sharp economic downturn. By 1980, unemployment reached 7.2%.

  

   

  In response, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates as high as 20% in 1981. Soon after, inflation sank to 5% by 1982 and unemployment levels improved.

   

  2. Inflation

  Inflation is the rise in the price of goods and services across the economy. Broadly speaking, low and stable inflation is associated with periods of economic growth and low unemployment. It can be driven by rising consumer demand.

  The expectation of predictable inflation allows consumers and businesses to prepare for the future, in terms of both their purchases and investments.

  Case Study: 1990s-2000s

  Over the 1990s and 2000s, the U.S. saw relatively low and stable inflation.

  Rapid global population growth, the absence of oil shocks, and expanding global trade contributed to falling costs across industries. Between 1990 and 2007, inflation averaged 2.1% compared to 8.0% during the 1970s as price pressures became less volatile.

  

  Today, several central banks adhere to a 2% inflation target to ensure prices remain stable and predictable.

  3. Deflation

  Deflation is the fall in prices of goods and services in the economy.

  In many cases, its main causes are demand shortfalls, reduced output, or an excess of supply. For households, spending may stall as consumers wait for prices to fall. In turn, declining prices may lead to a lag in growth for businesses.

  Sometimes, deflationary periods raise concerns of slower economic growth. However, supply-driven deflationary periods may be associated with lower prices, raising real incomes and boosting output as exports become more competitive.

  Case Study: 1930s Great Depression

  Prior to WWII, deflationary episodes were more common than today. One prime example is the Great Depression of the 1930s, when real GDP fell 30% between 1929 and 1933 and unemployment spiked to 25%.

  

  Tightening monetary policy contributed to this environment. In fact, between 1930 and 1933, the U.S. money supply contracted roughly 30%, while average prices fell by a similar amount.

  Historical Asset Class Performance

  Which asset classes have historically tended to perform well across different types of inflationary environments?

  

  Defensive assets like gold and commodities have historically performed well during stagflationary periods, with average returns of 22.1% and 15.0%, respectively.

  Meanwhile, U.S. equities have typically performed well during moderate inflation, or ‘goldilocks’ environments, characterized by falling inflation and rising economic growth.

  Both U.S. equities and Treasuries have shown the strongest real returns in deflationary or ‘disinflationary’ periods of slowing growth and inflation, at over 8% returns on average each.

  Understanding Different Inflationary Environments

  Today’s inflationary period is jarring for investors after an extended period of low and stable inflation. With this in mind, the economy has historically cycled through different types of inflationary periods.

  While central banks aim to influence price stability and employment through monetary policy, investors can influence their portfolio by adjusting their asset allocation based on where the inflationary environment may be heading.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 22:40

• Biden's Secret Promise To OPEC Backfires: Shellenberger
  Biden’s Secret Promise To OPEC Backfires: Shellenberger

  Submitted by Michael Shellenberger,

  In early September, United States Secretary of Energy, Jennifer Granholm, told Reuters that President Joe Biden was considering extending the release of oil from America’s emergency stockpiles, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), through October, and thus beyond the date when the program had been set to end. But then, a few hours later, an official with the Department of Energy called Reuters and contradicted Granholm, saying that the White House was not, in fact, considering more SPR releases. Five days later, the White House said it was considering refilling the SPR, thereby proposing to do the exact opposite of what Granholm had proposed.

  

  The confusion around the Biden administration’s petroleum policy was cleared up yesterday after a senior official revealed that the White House had made a secret offer to buy up to 200 million barrels of OPEC+ oil to replenish the SPR in exchange for OPEC+ not cutting oil production. The official said the White House wanted to reassure OPEC+ that the US “won’t leave them hanging dry.” The fact that this offer was made through the White House, not the Department of Energy, may explain why a representative of the Department called Reuters to take back the remarks of Granholm, who has shown herself to be out-of-the-loop, and at a loss for words, relating to key administration decisions relating to oil and gas production.

  The revelation poses political risks for Democrats who, in the spring of 2020, killed a proposal by President Donald Trump to replenish the SPR with oil from American producers, not OPEC+ ones, and at a price of $24 a barrel, not the $80 a barrel that the Biden White House promised to OPEC+. At the time, Trump was seeking to stabilize the American oil industry after the Covid-19 pandemic massively reduced oil demand. Trump and Congressional Republicans proposed spending $3 billion to fill the SPR. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer successfully defeated the proposal, and later bragged that his party had blocked a “bailout for big oil.”

  Even normally strong boosters of the Biden White House viewed the Democrats’ opposition to refilling the SPR as a major blunder. “That decision,” noted Bloomberg, “effectively cost the US billions in potential profits and meant Biden had tens of millions of fewer barrels at his disposal with which to counter price surges.” Moreover, observed Bloomberg, it will take significantly more oil today to fill the SPR than it would have two years ago. In spring 2020, the SPR contained 634 million barrels out of a capacity of 727 million. Now, the reserve is below 442 million barrels, its lowest level in 38 years.

  The decision looks even worse in light of the decision by OPEC+ today to cut production, which will increase oil prices. The Biden administration in recent days has been pulling out the stops trying to persuade Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ members, a group that includes Russia, to maintain today’s levels of oil production. Last Friday, the Biden administration sought a 45-day delay in a civil court proceeding over whether Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman should have sovereign immunity for the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, for which bin Salman has taken responsibility.

  The behavior by the Biden White House displays a willingness to sacrifice America’s commitment to human rights for the president’s short-term political needs. Instead of pleading with OPEC+ to maintain or increase high levels of oil production, the Biden administration could have simply allowed for expanded domestic oil production. Instead, Biden has issued fewer leases for on-shore and off-shore oil production than any president since World War II. As such, the pleadings by Biden and administration officials have backfired. The perception of the U.S. in the minds of OPEC+ members has weakened while the influence of Russian President Vladimir Putin has strengthened.

  Why is that? Why did the Biden administration decide to spend so much political capital trying, and failing, to get Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ members to expand production when it could have simply expanded oil production domestically? What, exactly, is going on?

  

  Substack subscribers can click here to read more…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 22:20

• September Payrolls Preview: "Bulls Need A 100k Print For The Market To Alter Its Fed Expectations"
  September Payrolls Preview: “Bulls Need A 100k Print For The Market To Alter Its Fed Expectations”

  Prior to Friday’s NFP (and CPI next Wednesday), the market has been oscillating between the “hawkish Fed” and “Fed pivot” narrative. While the JOLTS Job Openings and the ISM Manufacturing employment index showed more evidence of a slowing labor market…

  

  … yesterday’s stronger than expected ADP/ISM Services once again proved the economy still remains strong and therefore weakens the hope of a near-term pivot from the Fed. In a nutshell, according to JPM’s trading deks, with consensus expected tomorrow’s NFP to print +255k, Equity bulls would need a print ~100k to see the market alter its Fed expectations.

  That said, many have said that in the absence of a huge outlier (to the downside) what markets and the Fed will be focusing on will be the participation rate (look for a big bounce here to confirm the recent slump in job openings) and hourly earnings: anything below 5.0% Y/Y and a 0.1% or lower sequential number will be greeted by the market.

  Want more? Here is Newsquawk with a more detailed preview of what to expect tomorrow:

  • The headline rate of payrolls growth is expected to resume cooling in September, with the consensus looking for 255k payroll additions (vs 315k in August);
  • The jobless rate is seen unchanged at 3.7%, and there will also be focus on the participation rate after a welcome rise in August.
  • Wage growth is expected to continue, although the annual rate is expected to cool a touch.
  • Traders will be framing the data in the context of Fed policy; there are building hopes that the central bank might relent on some of its hawkishness if its policy tightening gives rise to financial stability concerns as it moves policy further into restrictive territory – these concerns could be exacerbated by soft economic data, as seen this week after the release of the Manufacturing ISM and JOLTs data, which fueled bets that the Fed would not be as aggressive with rate hikes ahead.

  PAYROLL GROWTH: Analysts expect 255k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (Goldman estimates nonfarm payrolls rose by 200k in September, 50k below consensus and a slowdown from the +315k pace in August.), with the pace of jobs growth seen easing from 315k in August;

  

  This would represent a resumption of recent trends where payroll growth has begun to cool (3-month average 378k, 6-month average 381k, 12-month average 487k). Jobless claims data that coincides with the reference period for the establishment survey in August and September augurs well for the headline: initial jobless claims eased to 209k vs the 245k level heading into the August jobs data, while continuing claims declined to 1.347mln vs 1.412mln into the previous jobs report. Meanwhile, while the ADP’s employment data bodes well for the official payrolls data (ADP printed 208k in September, a little above the expected 200k, and improving from the previous 185k), there is a great deal of scepticism about the payroll processor’s modelling, particularly given that its new methodology did not capture the trend of the August data in its inaugural release. Business surveys were mixed; the Manufacturing ISM report gave a sobering look at the labor market, where the Employment sub-index fell into contraction territory at 48.7, 5.5 points lower than the level recorded in August; the Services ISM however, saw the Employment sub-index rise to 53.0 from a previous 50.2, suggesting employment in the services sector continues to expand, while employment in the manufacturing sector is declining.

  UNEMPLOYMENT: The unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged at 3.7%; analysts will also be watching the participation rate, which encouragingly rose by 0.3ppts in August to 62.4%. Additionally, there will also be focus on the U6 measure of underemployment after that picked-up to 7.0% in August from 6.7% in July. In terms of signposts about how these data will impact monetary policy, JPMorgan’s analysts point to the so-called non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), a level which puts neither upward nor downward pressure on inflation. JPM explains that when unemployment is above NAIRU, inflation tends to go down, and vice versa. The CBO estimates NAIRU is currently around 4.4%, but the median estimate of FOMC participants is at 4%. JPM itself argues that the actual level might have moved higher after the pandemic: “the relation between unemployment and job openings is also consistent with a higher natural rate,” it writes, “massive sectoral reallocation over the past three years is a likely culprit for this increase.” The Fed’s most recent economic projections envisage the jobless rate rising to 4.4%, where it is expected to stay into next year.

  WAGES: Average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3% M/M, matching the rate seen in August, but with the annual measure expected to ease a little to 5.1% Y/Y from 5.2%. The Conference Board’s gauge of consumer confidence in September revealed that consumers were more optimistic about the short-term prospects for the labor market, although they were mixed about their short-term financial prospects. On this front, Fed officials have been closely monitoring the JOLTs data series, which offers a proxy on the tightness of labor market conditions (the tighter the labor market, the  more wage growth economists expect ahead). In that regard, the latest JOLTs data may be welcomed by Fed officials, given that it showed labor market tightness eased significantly in the month, which might suggest that wage growth is to cool further in the months ahead. (NOTE: the latest JOLTs report was for August, not September).

  POLICY IMPLICATIONS: Analysts will be framing the data in the context of the Fed’s mission to tackle surging consumer prices. BMO’s analysts argue that “as the market can now see the end of the rate hike cycle, market volatility around employment releases will increase,” adding that “the Fed has been very effective in communicating the fact that the strong underlying labor statistics have allowed it to be more aggressive in fighting inflation than they might have otherwise been; at some point this will turn, and as a result not only will the official BLS data be pivotal.” Accordingly, BMO argues that as the real economy enters the next stage of the cycle, the market will be on guard for any signs of undue stress in the labor market, given the ramifications it could have on the speed of Fed policy. Indeed, this week, soft ISM and JOLTs data both resulted in a re-pricing of Fed hike trajectory expectations (traders reason that soft data may compel the Fed to relent on some of its hawkishness, while any particularly strong economic data will embolden the Fed to continue to act aggressively with normalizing policy).

  ARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT

  • Youth workers back to school. The loss of the youth summer workforce represents a headwind for September payrolls following strong summer employment gains for this segment. The household survey indicates that 1.3mn workers ages 16-24 were hired on net during the May-to-August payroll periods (nsa), the largest gain since 2016 outside of the 2020 reopening. As shown in Exhibit 1, September youth employment losses are strongly correlated with the summer pace of hiring in that segment, consistent with the vast majority of these workers returning to school in the fall. Additionally, this year’s particularly tight labor market suggests that many of these newly vacant positions remained unfilled during the September survey period. There is also find a negative correlation between youth summer hiring and the September nonfarm payroll surprise (relative to consensus, correlation of -0.47). These relationships would imply a roughly 35k nonfarm payroll miss and a roughly 110k drag on youth employment in tomorrow’s report (mom sa).

  

  • Big Data. High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed-to-weaker inn September, with each of the three measures available this month consistent with at-or-below consensus job growth (see Exhibit 2).

  

  • September first-print bias. As in August, payrolls have exhibited a tendency toward weak September first prints, which may reflect a recurring seasonal bias in the first vintages of the data. September job growth has missed consensus by at least 25k in 4 of the last 5 years and in 6 of the last 10 years. Relatedly, September payroll growth was subsequently revised higher by an average of 46k in the five years leading up to the pandemic, consistent with a negative bias in tomorrow’s report of roughly that magnitude.
  • Employer surveys. The employment components of business surveys generally decreased in September. Goldman’s Services employment survey tracker decreased by 1.0pt to 52.2 and its manufacturing survey employment tracker decreased by 1.7pt to 52.9.
  • Job cuts. Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas increased 28.9% month-over-month in September, following a 9.3% increase in August (SA by GS).

  ARGUING FOR A STRONGER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT

  • Jobless claims. Initial jobless claims decreased during the September payroll month, averaging 220k per week vs. 246k in September but up from 175k in August. Residual seasonality and other non-economic factors explain much of the variation in initial claims over the last few months, and the overarching message from the jobless claims data is that layoff rates remained very low in Q3. Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 66k from survey week to survey week, although they may also be affected by residual seasonality.
  • Job availability. JOLTS job openings surprised to the downside, declining by 1.1mn to 10.1 million workers in August. However, the level of job openings nonetheless remains elevated relative to history. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get—edged up by 2.0pp to 38.0%.

  NEUTRAL/MIXED FACTORS

  • Seasonal factors. In contrast to those of the spring and summer months, the September seasonal factors have not evolved dramatically in recent years. The September month-over-month hurdle for private payrolls was -618k in 2021 compared to -665k in 2019 and -695k in 2017 (which unlike 2019 was also a 5-week September payroll). On this basis, September 2021 was sequentially more difficult by 50-75k. However, this could reverse for September 2022 based on the trend in recent months toward favorable year-on-year evolution in the factors. On net, Goldman is not assuming a significant tailwind or headwind from the seasonal factors (compared to a seasonality tailwind of as much as 100-200k in the previous report).
  • ADP. Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 208k in September,n in line with expectations for 200k.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 22:11

• What Really Divides America
  What Really Divides America

  Authored by Joel Kotkin via UnHerd.com,

  The Midterms aren’t a battle between good and evil…

  

  Reading the mainstream media, one would be forgiven for believing that the upcoming midterms are part of a Manichaean struggle for the soul of democracy, pitting righteous progressives against the authoritarian “ultra-MAGA” hordes. The truth is nothing of the sort. Even today, the vast majority of Americans are moderate and pragmatic, with fewer than 20% combined for those identifying as either “very conservative” or “very liberal”. The apocalyptic ideological struggle envisioned by the country’s elites has little to do with how most Americans actually live and think. For most people, it is not ideology but the powerful forces of class, race, and geography that determine their political allegiances — and how they will vote come November.

  Of course, it is the business of both party elites — and their media allies — to make the country seem more divided than it is. To avoid talking about the lousy economy, Democrats have sought to make the election about abortion and the alleged “threat to democracy” posed by “extremist” Republicans. But recent polls suggest that voters are still more concerned with economic issues than abortion. The warnings about extremism, meanwhile, are tough to take seriously, given that Democrats spent some $53 million to boost far-Right candidates in Republican primaries.

  Republicans are contributing to the problem in their own way, too. Rather than offering any substantive governing vision of their own, they assume that voters will be repelled by unpopular progressive policies such as defunding the police, encouraging nearly unlimited illegal immigration, and promoting sexual and gender “fluidity” to schoolchildren. They ignore, of course, the fact that their own embrace of fundamentalist morality on abortion is also widely rejected by the populace. And even Right-leaning voters may doubt the sanity of some of the GOP’s eccentric candidates this November.

  In short, both major parties stoke polarisation, the primary beneficiaries of which are those parties’ own political machines. But most Americans broadly want the same things: safety, economic security, a post-pandemic return to normalcy, and an end to dependence on China. Their divisions are based not so much on ideology but on the real circumstances of their everyday life.

  The most critical, yet least appreciated, of these circumstances is class. America has long been celebrated as the “land of opportunity”, yet for working and middle-class people in particular, opportunity is increasingly to come by. With inflation elevated and a recession seemingly on the horizon, pocketbook issues are likely to become even more important in the coming months. According to a NBC News poll, for instance, nearly two-thirds of Americans say their pay check is falling behind the cost of living, and the Republicans hold a 19-point advantage over the Democrats on the economy.

  A downturn could also benefit the Left eventually. As the American Prospect points out, proletarianised members of the middle class are increasingly shopping at the dollar stores that formerly served working and welfare populations. Labour, a critical component of the Democratic coalition, could be on the verge of a generational surge, with unionisation spreading to fast food retailers, Amazon warehouses, and Starbucks.

  To take advantage of a resurgent labour movement, however, Democrats will have to move away from what Democratic strategist James Carville scathingly calls  “faculty lounge politics”: namely, their obsession with gender, race, and especially climate. For instance, by demanding “net zero” emissions on a tight deadline, without developing the natural gas and nuclear production needed to meet the country’s energy needs, progressives run the risk of inadvertently undermining the American economy. Ill-advised green policies will be particularly devastating for the once heavily Democratic workers involved in material production sectors like energy, agriculture, manufacturing, warehousing, and logistics.

  To win in the coming election and beyond, Democrats need to focus instead on basic economic concerns such as higher wages, affordable housing, and improved education. They also need to address the roughly half of all small businesses reporting that inflation could force them into bankruptcy. Some progressives believe that climate change will doom the Republicans, but this is wishful thinking. According to Gallup, barely 3% of voters name environmental issues as their top concern.

  Racial divides are also important — though not in the way that media hysterics about “white supremacy” would lead you to believe. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’s decision to fly undocumented immigrants to Martha’s Vineyard was undoubtedly a political stunt, and one arguably in poor taste. But it succeeded in its main goal: highlighting the enormous divide between the border states affected by illegal immigration and the bastions of white progressivism who tend to favour it.

  Under Biden, the Democrats have essentially embraced “open borders” — illegal crossings are at record levels, and few of the migrants who make it across the border are ever required to leave. This policy reflects a deep-seated belief among elite Democrats that a more diverse, less white population works to their political favour. Whether they are right to think so, however, is far from clear. Black people still overwhelmingly back the Democrats, but Asians (the fastest-growing minority) and Latinos (the largest) are more evenly divided, and have been drifting toward the Republicans in recent years.

  Here, too, class is a key factor. Many middle and upper-class minorities are on board with the Democrats’ anti-racist agenda. But many working-class Hispanics and Asians have more basic concerns. After all,  notes former Democratic Strategist Ruy Teixiera, these are the people most affected by inflation, rising crime, poor schools, and threats to their livelihoods posed by draconian green policies.

  Culture too plays a role. Immigrants, according to one recent survey, are twice as conservative in their social views than the general public and much more so than second generation populations of their own ethnicity. Like most Americans, they largely reject the identity politics central to the current Democratic belief system. Immigrants and other minorities also tend to be both more religious than whites; new sex education standards have provoked opposition from the Latino, Asian, African American and Muslim communities.

  The final dividing line is geography, always a critical factor in American politics. For decades, the country seemed to become dominated by the great metropolitan areas of the coasts, with their tech and finance-led economies. But even before the pandemic, the coastal centres were losing their demographic and economic momentum and seeing their political influence fade. In 1960, for example, New York boasted more electoral votes than Texas and Florida combined. Today, both have more electoral votes than the Empire State. Last year, New York, California, and Illinois lost more people to outmigration than any other states. The greatest gains were in Florida, Texas, Arizona, and North Carolina. These states are high-growth, fertile, and lean toward the GOP.Likewise, regional trends suggest that elections will be decided in lower density areas; suburbs alone are  home to at least 40% of all House seats. Some of these voters may be refugees from blue areas who still favour the Democrats. But lower-density areas, which also tend to have the highest fertility rates, tend to be dominated by family concerns like inflation, public education and safety, issues that for now favour Republicans.

  Put the battle between Good and Evil to one side. It is these three factors — class, race, geography — that will shape the outcome of the midterms, whatever the media says. The endless kabuki theatre pitting Trump and his minions against Democrats may delight and enrage America’s elites — but for the American people, it is still material concerns that matter.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 21:40

• Biden Warns 'Nuclear Armageddon' Threat Back 'For First Time Since Cuban Missile Crisis'
  Biden Warns ‘Nuclear Armageddon’ Threat Back ‘For First Time Since Cuban Missile Crisis’

  President Joe Biden said on Thursday that the threat of nuclear “Armageddon” is at its highest level since the Cuban missile crisis, and that the US is trying to find an “off-ramp” for Russia before they begin the use of tactical nuclear weapons.

  

  “We’re trying to figure out what is Putin’s off-ramp? Where does he get off? Where does he find a way out?” Biden said at a fundraiser in New York City for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee at the New York home of James Murdoch, the son of News Corp. Chairman Rupert Murdoch.

  “Where does he find himself in a position that he does not, not only lose face but lose significant power in Russia?”

  “He is not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological and chemical weapons, because his military is, you might say, significantly underperforming,” Biden added, according to Bloomberg. “I don’t think there’s any such thing as the ability to easily use tactical nuclear weapons and not end up with Armageddon.”

  Are Biden’s comments related to why his admin is buying up to $290 million in anti-radiation drugs?

  Putin has renewed his nuclear threats as he announced the annexation of Ukrainian territory, some of which Russia doesn’t control, and with the call-up of 300,000 reservists to reinforce his flagging invasion. “When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people,” Putin said in a televised national address. “This is not a bluff.” -Bloomberg

  Biden’s dire language comes in stark contrast to his National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan, who said last week that the US doesn’t Putin is serious. 

  “We do not presently see indications about the imminent use of nuclear weapons,” he said. “We are, of course, monitoring that carefully and staying in close consultation with allies and partners.”

  Sullivan added that the US has warned of severe consequences if Russia uses nukes.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 21:20

• A Preview Of The Igor Danchenko Trial
  A Preview Of The Igor Danchenko Trial

  Authored by Techno Fog via The Reactionary,

  The trial of Igor Danchenko is scheduled for October 11, 2022. While it is only a false statement case, we can’t help but ask whether the trial will reveal any Danchenko contacts with the Hillary Clinton Presidential Campaign while he was acting as Christopher Steele’s primary subsource.

  

  The reason for that question? More on that below.

  First we start with the background. As you might recall, Danchenko was used by Steele as he conducted opposition research on Trump and his associates. Steele’s dossier (also called “Company Reports”) eventually made it into the hands of federal officials and the FBI and Special Counsel Robert Mueller, who used it to prepare and submit applications for warrants under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) to spy on Carter Page (and to collect the communications of the Trump campaign).  

  As Special Counsel John Durham alleged in the Danchenko indictment:

  “Each of the FISA applications set forth the FBI’s assessment that Page was a knowing agent of Russia and further alleged – based on the Company Reports – that Page was part of a “well-coordinated conspiracy of co-operation” between Trump’s campaign and the Russian government.”1

  The charges against Danchenko stem from false statements he gave the FBI during multiple interviews from January 2017 through November 2017. These are the counts from the Danchenko indictment:

  1. Count 1. June 15, 2017: Danchenko denied to FBI agents that he spoke with public relations executive Charles Dolan (a long-time participant in Democrat party politics) about materials in the Steele dossier. In fact, Dolan was the source of Danchenko’s and, as alleged by Special Counsel Durham, was “otherwise involved in the events and information described in the” dossier.

  2. Count 2. March 16, 2017: Danchenko told FBI agents he received a call in late July 2016 from a person he thought was Sergei Millian, when Danchenko knew he had never received a call from Millian.

  3. Count 3. May 18, 2017: Danchenko gave a false statement to FBI agents that he “was under the impression” that the late July 2016 call was from Millian.

  4. Count 4. October 24, 2017: Danchenko falsely stated to FBI agents that he believed he spoke to Millian on the phone on more than one occasion.

  5. Count 5. November 16, 2017: Danchenko lied that he “believed he has spoken to [Millian] on the telephone,” when Danchenko well knew he had never spoken to Millian.

  This isn’t the easiest false statements case, so credit to Durham for bringing it. The reason isn’t because Danchenko told the truth. He’s most certainly a serial fabricator. It’s that Danchenko’s statements were made around 5 years ago to sloppy agents, and to an FBI and Department of Justice that was uninterested in uncovering and pursuing the truth.

  Adding to the problems is that Sergei Millian, concerned about FBI abuses and generally untrustworthy of US assurances, remains somewhere overseas and will not testify at trial. At the same time, Durham must be conscious of the fact that the FBI was more than willing to allow Danchenko to lie.

  Materiality

  That brings us to “materiality.” Danchenko is charged under 18 USC § 1001, which criminalizes false statements to federal officials. Under this statute, Durham must prove that Danchenko’s statements were “materially false.”2

  Normally, proving materiality in this context wouldn’t be difficult. But Durham faces the challenge of proving that Danchenko’s false statements were material to an FBI that invited and ignored Danchenko’s lies. If there is any relief to those waiting on justice to be administered, it is that Danchenko’s lies didn’t need to influence the FBI. They only needed to be “capable of influencing” the FBI. Danchenko’s false statements definitely meet that standard.

  One way Durham will explain the materiality of Danchenko’s false statements will be to point to FBI obligations to notify the FISC about the misrepresentations from its witness under FISC Local Rule 13:

  “the FBI and DOJ would be required to inform the FISC about the misrepresentations made in each of the applications it provided to the FISC. Had the FISC known of these misrepresentations, it could have terminated the surveillance of Carter Page and/or ordered the FBI and DOJ to destroy the information it had already collected.”3

  Not that the FBI would have notified the FISC. As we have discussed, the FBI was generally aware of Danchenko’s contacts with Charles Dolan (and thus that one source of Danchenko’s information was a Clinton ally) and likely suspected back June 2017 that Danchenko had lied about his conversations with Dolan. Then there is the fact that the FBI refused to notify the FISC, contrary to the court’s rules, that Danchenko had contradicted some of Steele’s reporting.

  Moreover, the FBI misrepresented to the FISC in 2018 that it had “no control over” Danchenko, when in fact the FBI made Danchenko a paid confidential human source (CHS) from March 2017 through October 2020. This hid Danchenko from inquiry, and thus protected the FBI (and the DOJ and the Mueller Special Counsel) from their own lies being exposed. “Sources and methods.”

  To elaborate on that issue, I’m wondering if we’ll see any evidence as to who approved Danchenko as a paid CHS and why the FBI took that step. It might happen, if only because Danchenko lied while he was a confidential human source. If we had to guess a name, we’d venture it may have been former FBI Assistant Director for Counter Intelligence Bill Priestap who approved Danchenko as a CHS.

  And if the past provides any guidance, we may also see the steps the FBI took – or refused to take – to corroborate Danchenko’s statements, and who at the FBI was involved in that effort. At the Sussmann trial, for example, it was revealed that FBI leadership stopped inquiry into Sussmann’s role as the source for the bogus Alfa Bank information. As we wrote a couple weeks ago:

  “the dispute over the materiality of Danchenko’s lies almost requires the defense to prove government misconduct/ignorance. To which we say – good. Expose them.”

  What of Charles Dolan and the Clinton Campaign?

  Expect Charles Dolan to testify to his conversations with Danchenko and others relating to the dossier allegations at the trial. He’s already testified before a grand jury. For background, Dolan is described in the Danchenko indictment as having “maintained historical and ongoing involvement in Democratic politics.” His history includes serving as chairman of a national Democratic political organization, being a state chairman of Bill Clinton’s 1992 and 1996 presidential campaigns, and an advisor to Hillary Clinton’s 2008 presidential campaign.

  Based on his ties with the Clintons, one would think that the Clinton Campaign would have known about Dolan’s contacts with Danchenko. However, the Danchenko indictment states “individuals affiliated with the Clinton Campaign did not direct, and were not aware of, [Dolan’s] meetings with Danchenko and other Russian nationals.”

  That statement concerns Dolan’s lack of interactions with the Clinton Campaign. It still leaves unanswered the question of whether Danchenko had any contacts with the Clinton campaign, and whether the Clinton campaign was aware of Danchenko’s activities.

  Two theories on that. It’s possible that the Clinton campaign received updates on the opposition research but otherwise isolated itself from these matters, preferring its lawyers at Perkins Coie and its contractors at Fusion GPS (and their sources) get their hands dirty. That would be consistent with what we saw in the Michael Sussmann trial, a real-time demonstration of how the Clinton machine uses the the attorney-client and work-product privileges to manipulate the press, spread false accusations, and hide a number of sins.

  It is also possible that the Clinton campaign had more knowledge about Danchenko than has been made publicly available. I bring that up because back in December, we discussed a curious filing by Durham, which confirmed that the Clinton campaign and “multiple former employees of that campaign” were subject to “matters before the Special Counsel.” In that filing, Durham discussed the potential conflict of interest of Danchenko’s lawyers, whose firm also represented the Clinton campaign and those former campaign employees.

  Specifically, Durham raised these areas of inquiry that may become issues at the Danchenko trial:

  1. The Clinton Campaign’s knowledge or lack of knowledge concerning the veracity of information in the dossiers sourced by Danchenko;

  2. The Clinton Campaign’s awareness or lack of awareness of Danchenko’s collection methods and sub-sources;

  3. Meetings or communications between and among the Clinton Campaign, Fusion GPS, and Christopher Steele regarding or involving Danchenko;

  4. Danchenko’s knowledge or lack of knowledge regarding the Clinton Campaign’s role in the activities surrounding the Steele Dossier; and

  5. The extent to which the Clinton Campaign and/or its representatives directed, solicited, or controlled Danchenko’s activities.

  All of those points are important, but that last one is particularly compelling and is worth repeating: “The extent to which the Clinton Campaign and/or its representatives directed, solicited, or controlled Danchenko’s activities.”

  That implies the Clinton Campaign’s awareness of Danchenko and contacts with Danchenko. (After all, if the answer was “no,” then there would be no conflict.) Thus the potential conflict described by Durham:

  “the Clinton Campaign and [Danchenko] each might have an incentive to shift blame and/or responsibility to the other party for any allegedly false information that was contained within the Company Reports and/or provided to the FBI.”

  All this reminds us of a question we have previously asked. If the Clinton Campaign was being informed of the work by Fusion GPS, what of the likelihood that the Clinton Campaign was informing the work of Fusion GPS?

  And here’s a follow-up question: from whom did Danchenko get the name Sergei Millian?

  Furthermore, one has to ask whether those Clinton Campaign/Danchenko contacts, if they existed, stopped after the election – or whether they continued through Danchenko’s 2017 interviews with the FBI.

  Will these issues be raised, and will we get answers on the Clinton Campaign’s ties to Danchenko (or Danchenko’s “sources”)? As outside observers, we can’t – and won’t – make guarantees. There’s danger in false promises just like there’s danger in false hope. Durham, however, has suggested the possibility of former representatives of the Clinton Campaign testifying at trial, stating:

  “in the event that one or more former representatives of the Clinton Campaign are called to testify” at trial, Danchenko and the witness “would be represented by the same law firm, resulting in a potential conflict.”

  Whether they testify remains to be seen. We haven’t yet seen a witness list.

  Other Matters

  If you’re interested about Danchenko’s potential defenses, they’re outlined in his motion to dismiss, which was ultimately denied by the Court. I’ll summarize briefly: during trial, expect his attorney to argue that Danchenko’s answers were literally true and that the statements were immaterial.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 21:00

• Switzerland, Not USA, Is The 'Most Innovative' Country In The World
  Switzerland, Not USA, Is The ‘Most Innovative’ Country In The World

  The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) has released its 2022 Global Innovation Index. It evaluated innovation levels across 132 economies focusing on a long list of criteria such as human capital, institutions, technology and creative output as well as market and business sophistication, among others.

  The 2022 index has found that innovation is still blossoming in some sectors despite the global economic slowdown and coronavirus pandemic, especially in industries to do with public health and the environment.

  As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reports, Switzerland topped the rankings with a score of 64.6 out of 100, the 12th time it has been named the world leader in innovation. The United States come second while the Sweden rounds off the top three.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  One of the biggest winners of the ranking was South Korea, which climbed up from rank 10 in 2020 to rank 6 in 2022.

  China is now the world’s 11th most innovative nation, up from rank 14 in 2020 and 2019 and rank 17 in 2018.

  China was also named the most innovative upper middle-income country ahead of Bulgaria (overall rank 35), while India (overall rank 40) came first for lower middle-income countries, followed by Vietnam (overall rank 48).

  Notably, China is now on a par with the United States in terms of the number of top 100 Science & Technology clusters

  

  Finally, WIPO notes that on the one hand, science and innovation investments continued to surge in 2021, performing strongly even at the height of a once in a century pandemic. On the other hand, even as the pandemic recedes, storm clouds remain overhead, with increasing supply-chain, energy, trade and geopolitical stresses.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 20:40

• US Buying $290M Worth Of Anti-Radiation Drugs for Use In "Nuclear Emergency"
  US Buying $290M Worth Of Anti-Radiation Drugs for Use In “Nuclear Emergency”

  Authored by Chris Menahan via InformationLiberation.com,

  The Biden regime is buying up $290 million in anti-radiation drugs for use in “nuclear emergencies” amid escalating tensions with Russia and heightened threats of a nuclear war.

  

  From Health and Human Services:

  FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
  October 4, 2022

  Contact HHS Press Office
  202-821-9446
  asprmedia@hhs.gov
  www.hhs.gov/news
  Twitter: @HHSgov

  HHS purchases drug for use in radiological and nuclear emergencies

  As part of long-standing, ongoing efforts to be better prepared to save lives following radiological and nuclear emergencies, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services is purchasing a supply of the drug Nplate from Amgen USA Inc; Nplate is approved to treat blood cell injuries that accompany acute radiation syndrome in adult and pediatric patients (ARS).

  Amgen, based in Thousands Oaks, California, developed Nplate for ARS with support from the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), part of the HHS Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR), as well as the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, part of the National Institutes of Health.

  BARDA is using its authority provided under the 2004 Project Bioshield Act and $290 million in Project BioShield designated funding to purchase this supply of the drug. Amgen will maintain this supply in vendor-managed inventory. This approach decreases life-cycle management costs for taxpayers because doses that near expiration can be rotated into the commercial market for rapid use prior to expiry and new doses can be added to the government supply.

  ARS, also known as radiation sickness, occurs when a person’s entire body is exposed to a high dose of penetrating radiation, reaching internal organs in a matter of seconds. Symptoms of ARS injuries include impaired blood clotting as a result of low platelet counts, which can lead to uncontrolled and life-threatening bleeding.

  To reduce radiation-induced bleeding, Nplate stimulates the body’s production of platelets. The drug can be used to treat adults and children.

  Nplate is also approved for adult and pediatric patients with immune thrombocytopenia, a blood disorder resulting in low platelet counts. Repurposing drugs for acute radiation syndrome that also are approved for a commercial indication helps to sustain availability of the product and improves healthcare provider familiarity with the drug.

  “The US government said the procurement of Nplate was not in response to the war in Ukraine,” The Telegraph reported.

  “An HSS spokesman told The Telegraph: ‘This is part of our ongoing work for preparedness and radiological security. It has not been accelerated by the situation in Ukraine.'”

  The State Department last week urged all Americans to leave Russia “as soon as possible” in the wake of the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines.

  The official reasoning they gave was to avoid getting conscripted in their mobilization effort but that logic only applied to dual citizens and their advisory was for all Americans.

  As I noted at the time, the real reason they told everyone to leave is more likely the risk of a full-blown war breaking out due to the US, Ukraine or Poland being responsible for the belligerent bombing of the Nord Steam pipelines.

  While Russia has issued statement after statement warning the US they will use nuclear weapons to defend their territory and are “not bluffing,” the US has been shipping billions in high-tech weaponry to Ukraine to attack Russian forces and strike inside of Russia.

  Just last week, Congress voted to send another $12.3 billion in military and economic aid to Ukraine.

  Biden said in February after the war broke out that Americans should not be worried about a nuclear war then spent the next eight months antagonizing Russia (and China) with endless provocations to make nuclear war more likely than ever.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 20:22

• Media Spin On Gun Control Doesn't Match Voters' Opinions
  Media Spin On Gun Control Doesn’t Match Voters’ Opinions

  Authored by John Lott Jr via RealClearPolitics.com,

  Red flag laws are the top priority of Democrats and gun control advocates.

  Polls show that Americans overwhelmingly support these measures – by margins ranging between 2-1 and 3-1. Congress recently passed legislation providing funding for states that adopted these laws.

  

  But the polling doesn’t really gauge whether Americans understand how these laws operate. The surveys generally just ask people if they support laws that “allow guns to be temporarily confiscated by a judge from people considered by a judge to be a danger to themselves or others.”

  Respondents might reasonably assume that a normal legal process is being followed, whereby complaints are made and witnesses are cross-examined. With a law that almost always involves fears of suicide, they might presuppose that mental health experts are involved in the process.

  To examine this premise, the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC), which I head, hired McLaughlin & Associates to survey 1,000 general election voters from July 21-24, 2022. The survey began by asking people whether they supported red flag laws. It then informed respondents that there are no hearings before an individual’s guns are taken away, and that there are no mental health care experts involved in the process.

  People initially answered by a two-to-one margin that they support red flag laws (58% to 29%), with the strongest support coming from Democrats, the wealthy, blacks and Hispanics, and people aged 18-29.

  However, after being told that there are no court proceedings before an individual’s guns are taken away, and that there are no mental health care experts involved in the process, support changed to opposition (29% to 47%). Strong support plummeted from 34% to 14% and strong opposition rose from 18% to 29%.

  Finally, people were asked if they prefer “involuntary commitment” or red flag laws. They were told that involuntary commitment laws provide for evaluations by mental health care experts, that an emergency court hearing takes place before a judge’s decision, and that a lawyer is provided if the person can’t afford one. They are also told that, under such rules, judges have a range of less extreme options, such as mandatory outpatient mental health care and weapon confiscation.

  Survey respondents favored involuntary commitment by a 40%-to-33% margin. Only Democrats, the wealthy, blacks, and Asians supported red flag laws as their preferred option.

  The shift in position by the strongest supporters of red flag laws when told about the laws is consistent with them being the least well-informed. But that isn’t the only evidence of that problem. In April, the CPRC hired McLaughlin & Associates to survey what people thought the percentage of violent crime committed using guns was. They found that those most strongly supporting gun control dramatically overestimated the percentage of violent crime committed with guns. While the average Democrat estimates that 56.9% of violent crimes involve guns and the typical Republican gave an answer of 37%. (The actual rate is less than 8%.)

  We keep being told that there is 90+% support in polls for universal background checks on the private transfer of guns. But when these measures have been on the ballot, they haven’t been slam dunks. In 2016, despite Michael Bloomberg’s overwhelming financial backing, ballot initiatives failed in Maine by 4 percentage points and won in Nevada by less than 1%. 

  The Nevada initiative had $20 million in funding behind it, amounting to an incredible $35 per vote. That’s three times more than what was spent in opposition. In Maine, the opposition was outspent by a factor of 20. And in both states, the media coverage was overwhelmingly sympathetic to the gun control side.

  While the Nevada initiative technically eked out a win, it wasn’t able to go into effect because it had been inaccurately sold to voters as not costing taxpayers any money.

  Senate Republicans passed gun control earlier this year to take guns off the political agenda for this fall, but part of the compromise entailed providing federal funding to encourage states to adopt red flag laws. Democrats continue to cite surveys seeming to show that gun control will play a role in November’s election. Perhaps that’s right. Or is this perception more properly understood as an example of their consultants and pollsters not understanding the issues?

  Americans keep being told by the media that they overwhelmingly support gun control laws. So why don’t the laws get passed? Might it be that the polls are inaccurate and biased? My own survey suggests just that.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 20:20

• Global Trade Forecast 'Darkens' On Central Bank Tightening, Inflation, Ukraine War
  Global Trade Forecast ‘Darkens’ On Central Bank Tightening, Inflation, Ukraine War

  The World Trade Organization published a new report that outlines a sharp slowdown in world trade is expected for next year under the weight of skyrocketing energy prices, soaring interest rates, and war-related disruptions, with increasing risks of a global recession. 

  WTO economists expect world trade to “lose momentum in the second half of 2022 and remain subdued in 2023 as multiple shocks weigh on the global economy.” These economists expect global merchandise trade volumes will increase only by 3.5% in 2022, slightly better than forecasts in April of 3%. They warned that 2023 would be a doozy, forecasting only a 1% increase in trade volumes, down from the previous estimate of 3.4%. 

  

  Forecasts for world GDP will grow by 2.8% in 2022. The economists lowered their 2023 estimate to 2.3% from earlier expectations of 3.3% and warned, “major central banks are already raising interest rates in a bid to tame inflation but overshooting on tightening could trigger recessions in some countries, which would weigh on imports.” This means central banks could exacerbate the downturn by tightening too much next year. 

  The WTO’s downgrades to global trade align with new IMF and OECD projections. This is a drastic change and a considerable deceleration from last year’s 9.7% growth in international trade. Consumers, fueled by stimmy checks and ultra-low rates by central banks during Covid, are dialing back on spending as the hangover phase is underway. 

  “We’re looking at a situation in which a global slowdown is going to squeeze households even more, squeeze businesses and we may be edging into a recession.

   “It’s looking quite grim — a little more grim than we had thought,” WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. 

  The pandemic boom trade has ended as the global economy faces a multipronged crisis. We noted the reversal in the “shortage of everything” bullwhip effect has led to container lines on major shipping routes canceling sailings as US importers do not need to increase purchases of foreign goods because of rising domestic inventory as consumers are on strike due to negative real wage growth, low savings, and maxed out credit cards amid worst inflation in decades. 

  Last month, FedEx Corp.’s CEO Raj Subramaniam delivered a chilling message while speaking with CNBC’s Mad Money with Jim Crammer: The global economy is “going into a worldwide recession.”

  More evidence of the world stumbling into trouble is JP Morgan’s Global PMIs now sub 50, which means contraction. 

  

  WTO’s latest report is a reminder that 2023 economic outlooks for the world are quickly darkening as excess tightening by central banks could spark an even more significant downturn. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 20:00

• How Nation-States Will Use Bitcoin In The Power Projection Game
  How Nation-States Will Use Bitcoin In The Power Projection Game

  Authored by Jaime Gutierrez via BitcoinMagazine.com,

  Bitcoin miners are the next level of power projection as they reinforce an incorruptible network that cannot be usurped by a single entity…

  

  The military, today, is not considered an important element of society by the public. Why should it? It represents bloodshed and fights that seem pointless and have caused society a lot of pain. Similarly, studying Bitcoin as a property defense system is a misunderstood part of this asset and one that is biased by our own beliefs. How are they connected? Because both use brute force and physical power to defend property.

  As a Mexican-born citizen, I have always wondered why, given the abundance of natural resources like oil and lithium available in our country, Mexico hasn’t become a world economic leader. You might also have a similar point of view in your country of residence. Especially if you are in a developing nation in Latin America or Africa or if you live in a small country that has a lot of influence from superpowers like Russia, the U.S. or China.

  Throughout history, one of the reasons a country or empire has become a hegemonic power has been through what Jason Lowery calls the power projection game, which means the kinetic brute physical force of the military. This is important because if a nation doesn’t project power properly, how can it defend its natural resources and its sovereignty from another nation? And more importantly, as individuals, how can we defend our property from being stolen or confiscated by a corrupt agent? Here is where the role of The State arises.

  According to Robert Breedlove, the main purpose of a State is the defense and preservation of life, liberty, and property.

  “Property is the mutually acknowledged, exclusive relationship between an asset owner and any particular asset. As a relationship rather than any particular item, the essence of all property is informational.”

  “The right to life is the source of all rights — and the right to property is their own implementation. Without property rights, no other rights are possible. Since man has to sustain his life by his own effort, the man who has no right to the product of his effort has no means to sustain his life.” — Ayn Rand

  If property means a list of “Who owns what?” and life is the source of all rights, then how can we defend ourselves from a tyrant or a person that wants to steal our property? We want to be assured that the product of our daily life efforts gained through sweat, tears and sacrificed time will be safe for ourselves and our bloodline.

  “Reliably storing, updating and communicating information in this list is property’s native application. And the limitation of this has been the need to trust (and pay) an authority to maintain this list and prevent falsification or duplication of its records.” — Robert Breedlove

  For centuries, this authority has been the government. The government is the entity that determines the rule of law in a community. It works through the federal courts and its three main powers — legislative, judicial and executive — to defend the property rights of its citizens. It needs the third one — an army — to guarantee compliance with these rules if the other powers fail in doing so.

  “The purpose of projecting power via the Militia is to preserve zero-trust and egalitarian control over what are fundamentally trust-based and inegalitarian rules of law. Our rules-based order only works insofar as we can project power to preserve our access to our rules-based order. And, the only physical signature of ‘ownership’ is the power projected to preserve one’s access to property.” — Jason Lowery

  When we look at history, the government has often ended up being the actor imposing new rules and thereby violating these same property rights. In the U.S. this right is protected from corruption by the Second Amendment, which allows the people to form militias to combat the government if it becomes a bad actor in society.

  

  Source: Congress

  This concerns the protection of property rights within a self-organized state, but the same dynamics are true between states. And this is where international conflicts come from and where the importance of the military arises to defend their rule of law from outsiders.

  Military development infrastructure.

  

  Source: Jason Lowery

  “Whenever a consensus as to property rights between states could not be reached through political means, conflict erupts.” — Robert Breedlove, 2021

  “We forget how the state of ownership and chain of custody of virtually everything with mass, particularly the mass we monetize, is written in blood, not ink. This is the tragedy of good power projection and deterrence. The better we get at it, the less often we are reminded about why we need it.” — Jason Lowery

  Carl von Clausewitz, a Prussian general and military theorist of the 19th century stated: “War is merely the continuation of policy with other means.” So to understand the importance of the military having a hegemony we need to understand why wars happen.

  As one of the most important classical strategic thinkers of history, he examined the nature of war and defined it with this trinity:

  War is made of the same “blind natural forces” of “primordial violence” observed in nature.

  It contains “the play of chance and probability” that rewards “creative spirits.”

  It is a calculated instrument of national policy used to solve political disputes.

  This means that the survival of the fittest, the creative spirits that are in the search beyond something greater than them and with a clear purpose to achieve it, are the ones that translated into governments and have become the superpowers that are influencing everything around them because they have become the best at projecting power.

  “Moreover, winning this brute-force physical power game is not exclusively dependent on finding ways to amass larger quantities of power; it’s also about finding different strategies for projecting power in increasingly more creative ways.

  And when we can’t trust the judge because we don’t respect their judgment, war gives nations access to an independent courtroom with a perfectly impartial judge who cannot be manipulated by emotion or corrupted by false interpretations. War is the judge of last resort, delivering incorruptible judgment and a very decisive ruling based on brute-force physical power.” — Jason Lowery

  This is the judge in the rise and fall of civilizations and superpowers. And when new technology arises, the hegemony of the power that rejects it suffers the consequences and falls apart.

  Think of the Middle Ages, and one of the first things that probably leaps to mind for us is castles. Those immense, strongly fortified structures that were the power bases of their day. Gunpowder would change all of that, as the shattering of the walls of Constantinople demonstrated.

  

  Constantinople Harbor painting: Cobija/CC BY-SA 4.0/Public domain

  Picture yourself in Constantinople, which was seen at the time as the ultimate metropolis, the ultimate object of desire; and the Ottoman Turks were determined to capture it. It is the year 1452. Orban the engineer, an artillery expert, is working in Constantinople and goes to Emperor Constantine XI and his armies to offer them his newest invention; a dreaded weapon, a monster cannon using gunpowder to protect the city from outside invaders. But the Emperor ran out of money and couldn’t buy it from him. So Orban goes to the Turks, who couldn’t realistically reject it, and, at a better price, offers it to them.

  

  The monstrous cannon, constructed by Orban.

  Jumping ahead, it is now Easter Monday, April 2, 1453, a year later. The young Ottoman sultan, Mehmet II, and his armies are in Constantinople to begin the siege of the city. The monstrous cannon, constructed by Orban the engineer, had to be hauled more than a hundred miles to the besieged city. The largest cannon ever, 27 feet long with the ability to shoot a 1,500-pound stone ball at the defenses of the beleaguered city, is now in position. With deafening thunder, the cannon fired. This weapon pounded the walls of Constantinople and eventually broke them down, allowing the Ottoman army to breach the city.

  In addition to this monster, many other smaller cannons continued the bombardment. This was the sound of a military revolution, making stone walls, towers and battlements largely obsolete. It would devastate the certainties, traditions and way of life of the medieval age.

  The city of Constantinople fell on May 29, 1453, eight weeks after the first siege. And the key to the Ottoman Turks conquering Constantinople was the cannon constructed by Orban the engineer, a professional artillery master.

  “Keep your sword in front of you. Your swords and your shields are fully sufficient and will prove very effective in battle.” — What Emperor Constantine XI probably said during the final siege of Constantinople.

  Those last words would have been a lie because they couldn’t defend themselves from the cannons unless they would have bought them the year prior to the siege. This is an important history lesson because the last innovation in power projection was nuclear weapons. We saw what they are capable of in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. If used, the outcome is mutually assured destruction of humanity. And the countries that have them became the new world superpowers that no one wants to attack because the cost of it may be irreparable. These countries are China, Russia and the world superpower hegemon, the U.S.. We have some other exceptions with nuclear weapons like North Korea, but they don’t have the influence of these three countries throughout the world.

  Yet, another power projection technology arrived in 2009. Satoshi Nakamoto, inspired by Adam Back’s paper “Hashcash – A Denial Of Service Countermeasure”, built “Bitcoin: A peer-to-peer electronic cash system,” A network with a cost function that brings a challenge to its miners to be able to create tokens we call satoshis. By the proof-of-work mechanism, miners have to solve a challenge every 10 minutes to be able to validate Bitcoin transactions, and by doing so they receive bitcoin as a reward. Miners need to connect their specialized computers like Antminer’s S19 Pro in order to generate valid blocks.

  This cost function has also a mathematical succession to impose a cost if someone wants to attack the network:

  The Bitcoin halving formula.

  

  Fuente: Blog.lopp.net

  When the Bitcoin network was released, miners started receiving 50 bitcoin per block, which was mined every 10 minutes. Every 210,000 blocks bitcoin rewards will be cut in half, which happens approximately every four years until we reach 32 halvings (”halving” is the term referring to the Bitcoin rewards cut by half), which is expected to happen in the year 2140. We are now in the third halving, during which miners are receiving 6.25 bitcoin per block.

  If someone wants to attack the Bitcoin network, he or she would need to have a 51% majority of the hash rate. If, despite major roadblocks preventing such an event, a person does have this majority, the Bitcoin full nodes around the world would then have to validate and accept these new attacker blocks, which they are not incentivized to do so. Not to mention, this 51% attempt to attack the Bitcoin network would take approximately $6.7 billion per year.

  The proof-of-work mechanism imposes a physical cost to any belligerent agent that wants to corrupt the network. Using electrical power via their computers, they are using electrical brute force physical power instead of kinetic one like the military’s gunpowder. This is a continuation of the power projection game but in cyberspace, now done by protecting our purely digital property and energy, which we call Bitcoin. Miners are a continuation of our military power.

  What are the implications of this? Jason Lowery expresses it as follows and is making a great thesis called “Softwar: Bitcoin And The Future Of Our National Strategic Defense.”

  Lowery illustrates here:

  “We cannot forget how history plays out. We cannot forget that power is everything if we want to defend what we hold valuable. Hopefully, we can convince the people who are in charge of policy making. This is the goal of my research. They should at least take Bitcoin mining seriously because we don’t want to be like the end of Constantinople. We want to be the superpower of the future. If this is the power projection play, cyber. If this is how you achieve zero trust egalitarian control over cyber property, we want to posture this country to continue to be a superpower.”

  The U.S. has become the world superpower through its military force and the use of its currency, the U.S. dollar, as the world reserve money in the world. They managed to secure this after getting out of the gold standard in 1971 and following that with the petrodollar system.

  Why is this important?

  After the U.S. sanctions against Russia removing them from the SWIFT system, now every country is asking themselves these questions:

  “Can I trust my savings in the banking system?

  …

  If I go against the U.S., could I be thrown out of the SWIFT system as well?

  …

  How can we protect our property and sovereignty from the influence of this superpower?”

  They do so by building their military kinetically and electrically so that they can impose a cost on any attacker that wants to inflict their rules.

  The power projection game is a natural law that has existed for millions of years and is now evolving. Now, the U.S. has to make a smart move if it wants to maintain its role as the most powerful nation in the world.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 19:40

• Most Americans In Over 25 Years Suffer 'Real' Pay Cut Under Biden Admin; Fed Report Shows
  Most Americans In Over 25 Years Suffer ‘Real’ Pay Cut Under Biden Admin; Fed Report Shows

  As The Wall Street Journal recently reported “…vast numbers of Americans find their cost of living is rising faster than the income they’re bringing home,” under the Biden administration.

  

  How ‘vast’?

  Well The Dallas Fed just issued a report showing that, rather shockingly, a majority of employed workers’ real (inflation-adjusted) wages have failed to keep up with inflation in the past year.

  For these workers, The Dallas Fed finds that the median decline in real wages is a little more than 8.5 percent…

  

  All individuals to the left of the dashed line experienced wage growth that was less than the CPI inflation rate – that is 53.4% of all Americans.

  And, taken together, these outcomes appear to be the most severe faced by employed workers over the past 25 years…

  

  While this is all Putin’s fault – or price-gouging retail gas station owners – we do note The Dallas Fed researchers conclusion perhaps explains why the Democrats face an uphill battle into the Midterms… “While the past 25 years have witnessed episodes that show either a greater incidence or larger magnitude of real wage declines, the current time period is unparalleled in terms of the challenge employed workers face.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 19:20

• Democrats Attack Lake As 'Extremist' As 2024 Republicans Flock To Her
  Democrats Attack Lake As ‘Extremist’ As 2024 Republicans Flock To Her

  Authored by Philip Wegmann via RealClear Wire,

  It is a busy week for Kari Lake and for Republicans who harbor White House ambitions. Several are more than eager to share the stump with the Arizona gubernatorial candidate, a fact that Democrats believe underscores their arguments about the “ultra MAGA” right and the rise of GOP extremism.

  

  Tuesday morning in Scottsdale, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem will have coffee with Lake and her supporters. The next afternoon in the Phoenix suburbs, Lake will share the stage with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. Former President Donald Trump arrives Sunday to host a rally in the town of Prescott Valley.

  Some have already stumped for Lake, such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in August. Others have promised they will, like Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, but haven’t yet put a date on the calendar.

  “Why is it a surprise that Republicans are helping Republicans?” a Noem spokesman asked RealClearPolitics before getting a plug in for the candidate: “South Dakota is proving that freedom gets results, and Kari Lake will bring the same principles to Arizona.”

  But Lake isn’t a generic Republican candidate. A longtime former Phoenix television anchorwoman who routinely excoriates her former profession, she has called for the 2020 presidential election to be decertified, condemned the vaccine mandates as government overreach, and aggressively mixed it up with regional and national reporters alike. In short, Lake is a Republican after Trump’s heart. Other politicians, despite the criticism, want in.

  The race between Lake and Democratic nominee Katie Hobbs remains a tossup. In a state Biden narrowly won, the RealClearPolitics Average has the Republican out front with a slim 2.2-point lead., so it would be on the national radar anyway. But Lake, who brings an undeniable energy to the stump, adds a heightened level of controversy to the mix.

  “Kari Lake is as extreme as they come – from touting Arizona’s 1901 abortion ban with no exceptions for rape or incest to endorsing Donald Trump’s Big Lie that incited an attack on our Capitol,” DNC spokesperson Ammar Moussa told RCP. “It’s no surprise that national Republicans are flocking to Arizona to embrace Lake and echo her ultra-MAGA agenda because this is exactly what the Republican Party stands for today.”

  Democrats and President Biden are eager to make the midterms a referendum on what they see as GOP extremism, rather than the economy or inflation where the White House remains underwater in polling. And while Biden and his aides haven’t singled out Lake, they have happily pointed to abortion restrictions, in particular a national ban proposed by Sen. Lindsey Graham and backed by former Vice President Mike Pence, as examples of the rightward shift of the Republican Party.

  “If you are not with where the majority of Americans are, that is extreme,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told RCP last month. “That is an extreme way of thinking.”

  Lake has repeatedly denied the 2020 election, calling for the outcome of that contest to be decertified more than a year later. Traditional conservatives point to those statements while urging 2024 contenders to stay away from Arizona. Henry Olson, a conservative columnist at the Washington Post, wrote this summer that “nothing defines Lake more than her embrace of election denial” and begged Arizona Republicans not to nominate her. After she won that nomination and Virginia’s governor announced plans travel to the state, a National Review op-ed warned Youngkin to “hew closely to the lane he has staked out for himself” because “Trump sycophants are clogging up the rest of the road.”

  Yet, the enthusiasm for Lake is undeniable in the GOP grassroots where her belligerence toward the media is not seen as a drawback. Lake has said that if elected she would enforce Arizona’s bygone abortion ban, a law on the books before Roe v. Wade was passed a half-century ago. It prohibited abortions and criminalized abortionists. When pressed on her position, Lake said she supports “saving as many lives as possible” and then turned the question back on the reporter.

  “What I really want to know, and I’ve been waiting, I tune into you guys all the time, I want to know where Katie Hobbs stands. I never hear you guys ask her that,” Lake said.

  “Let me tell you where she stands. She supports abortion right up until birth and after birth. She supports that if a baby survives a botched abortion that that baby die on a cold metal tray. And none of you ever try to get her to talk about her stance,” the candidate continued.

  A clip of the exchange went viral. Cruz shared the video on Twitter and said Monday “This is how it’s done.”

  It is an open question whether that kind of rhetoric does more to get Arizona voters to the polls or animate the online conservatives. For now, regardless of controversy, potential presidential contenders are eager to associate with Lake who is becoming a rising star on the right.

  “Kari Lake does as much to help Ted Cruz, Kristi Noem, or Glen Youngkin in Arizona as they do to help her,” said Barrett Marson, an Arizona GOP strategist. “It’s mutually beneficial for some of these candidates to come here and stand next to Lake. Whether they add to her vote total, it may not matter, they are still associating themselves with a very popular Republican candidate.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 19:00

• Air Force Scrambles Jets After North Korea Flies 12 Warplanes Near Inter-Korean Border
  Air Force Scrambles Jets After North Korea Flies 12 Warplanes Near Inter-Korean Border

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

  At least 12 North Korean military planes flew in formation close to the South Korean border on Thursday, prompting U.S. allies to scramble dozens of fighter jets.

  

  A group of eight fighter jets and four bombers operated by North Korea flew in formation near the inter-Korean air boundary at around 2 p.m. local time, officials with the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff told Yonhap. They are believed to have carried out air-to-surface military drills, the officials said.

  In response, South Korea mobilized 30 fighter jets and scrambled them to near where North Korea carried out its drills, authorities told Yonhap.

  South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff told news outlets that the 12 North Korean warplanes “flew in squadron this afternoon in the South Korean side … to stage a protest.”

  “Reportedly, North Korea’s Air Force has not been able to train properly due to the scarcity of fuel, it is extremely unusual for North Korea to have flown 8 fighter jets and 4 bombers,” Cheong Seong-Chang, the head of the Center for North Korean Studies at the Sejong Institute, told ABC News.

  North Korea has previously sent military aircraft near the border, but Yonhap news agency said this is likely the first time it has mobilized so many warplanes for such a provocative flight and firing exercises.

  Tensions

  Tensions have risen sharply on the Korean Peninsula amid North Korea’s recent barrage of missile tests prompted South Korea, the United States, and Japan to conduct joint drills in response.

  Earlier Thursday, North Korea launched two short-range ballistic missiles toward its eastern waters. The launches came after the United States redeployed an aircraft carrier near the Korean Peninsula in response to North Korea’s launch of a nuclear-capable missile over Japan earlier this week.

  

  A TV screen shows a file image of a North Korean missile launch during a news program at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, on Sept. 28, 2022. (Ahn Young-joon/AP Photo)

  U.S., South Korean, and Japanese destroyers launched joint drills Thursday off the Korean Peninsula’s east coast to hone their abilities to search, track, and intercept North Korean ballistic missiles, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said.

  Also, the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier group returned to the sea east of the Korean Peninsula on Wednesday to stage a naval exercise with Japan and South Korea

  President Yoon Suk-Yeol noted tensions on the Korean Peninsula remain high, but he pledged that Seoul would remain cautious.

  “Since the situation is not easy to deal with, the USS Ronald Reagan returned to our waters at around 8 p.m. yesterday,” Yoon said, reported the Korean Times.

  “The public would be worried about the current security circumstances, but the government will not miss a single step in protecting the people based on the strong South Korea-U.S. alliance and the security cooperation between Seoul, Washington, and Tokyo.”

  

  North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un (L) and sister Kim Yo Jong attend the Inter-Korean Summit at the Peace House in Panmunjom, South Korea on April 27, 2018. (Korea Summit Press Pool/Getty Images)

  North Korean Threat

  South Korea will face “extermination” if it “adopts military confrontation” against North Korea, top North Korean official Kim Yo Jong said in a threat earlier this week.

  “In case south Korea adopts military confrontation against us, our nuclear combat forces are inevitably obliged to carry out its mission,” Kim, the high-ranking sister of dictator Kim Jong Un, said. “If the situation develops to such an extent, terrible attack would be mounted and the south Korean army would have no other choice but to suffer tragic lot of extermination.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 18:40

• Hundreds Of Thousands Of Americans Sought Medical Care After COVID-19 Vaccination: CDC Data
  Hundreds Of Thousands Of Americans Sought Medical Care After COVID-19 Vaccination: CDC Data

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Hundreds of thousands of Americans sought medical care after getting a COVID-19 vaccine, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data released on Oct. 3.

  

  Some 782,900 people reported seeking medical attention, emergency room care, and/or hospitalization following COVID-19 vaccination. Another 2.5 million people reported needing to miss school, work, or other normal activities as a result of a health event after getting a COVID-19 vaccine.

  The reports were made to the CDC’s V-safe program, a new vaccine safety monitoring system to which users can report issues through smartphones.

  The CDC released the data to the Informed Consent Action Network (ICAN) after being sued over not producing the data when asked by the nonprofit. ICAN posted a dashboard summarizing the data.

  “It took numerous legal demands, appeals, and two lawsuits, and over a year, but the CDC finally capitulated and agreed to a court order requiring them to do what they should have done from day one, release the V-safe data to the public,” Aaron Siri, a lawyer representing ICAN in the case, told The Epoch Times in an email.

  About 10 million people utilized V-safe during the period of time the data covers: Dec. 14, 2020, to July 31, 2022. About 231 million Americans received at least one vaccine doses during that time.

  The V-safe users reported about 71 million symptoms.

  The most commonly reported symptoms were chills (3.5 million), swelling (3.6 million), joint pain (4 million), muscle or body aches (7.8 million), headache (9.7 million), fatigue (12.7 million), and general pain (19.5 million).

  About 4.2 million of the symptoms were of severe severity.

  Users of V-safe filled in data for about 13,000 infants younger than two, reporting over 33,000 symptoms, including pain, loss of appetite, and irritability.

  The data produced so far by the CDC does not include free-text responses, according to ICAN. The data covered fields where users checked boxes.

  ICAN, founded by film producer Del Bigtree, said that the newly revealed data “reveals shocking information that should have caused the CDC to immediately shut down its COVID-19 vaccine program,” citing the percentage of people who reported needing to get care or missing school, work, or other normal activities, as well as the reported adverse events.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 18:20

• DACA Ruled Illegal After Appeals Court Cites 'Severe Deficiencies'
  DACA Ruled Illegal After Appeals Court Cites ‘Severe Deficiencies’

  A federal appeals court on Wednesday ruled that the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program is unlawful.

  

  The program was designed to shield certain immigrants known colloquially as “anchor babies” from deportation.

  In its ruling, the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed a July 2021 decision by a Texas federal judge, US District Judge Andrew Hanen, who declared DACA illegal and blocked new applications, while allowing current beneficiaries to continue receiving protection.

  The 5th Circuit maintained the same policy, and sent the case back to Hanen so he can review a revised set of rules that the Biden administration announced in august, to determine whether those rules are legal.

  The Biden administration’s new final rule to “preserve and fortify” DACA codifies the existing policy, with limited changes, into federal regulation. It was subject to public comments as part of a formal rule-making process intended to improve its chances of surviving lawsuits challenging it. It’s set to be effective Oct. 31 to replace the 2012 Department of Homeland Security (DHS) memorandum that had created DACA. -Epoch Times

  As Jonathan Turley notes;

  Writing for a unanimous three-judge panel of the Fifth Circuit (with U.S. Circuit Judges James Ho and Kurt Engelhardt), Chief Judge Priscilla Richman found that President Obama did indeed circumvent Congress and evaded the limits imposed in the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) when it enacted DACA in 2012. The court declared:

  “Under the first factor, DACA’s deficiencies are severe. The district court’s excellent opinion correctly identified fundamental substantive defects in the program. The DACA Memorandum contradicts significant portions of the INA. There is no possibility that DHS could obviate these conflicts on remand.”

  The court, however, did not change the status of the roughly 600,000 people from 150 countries enrolled under DACA. It sent the case back to the trial court for further proceedings.

  The Biden Administration fought to block any judicial review by challenging the standing of Texas to bring the action. However, it did little to refute the claims of injury raised by the state, including an expert who estimated that DACA recipients overall impose a cost of more than $250,000,000 on Texas per year and another $533,000,000 annually in costs to local Texas communities.

  In addition, the court noted that:

  “Texas contends that the rescission of DACA would cause some recipients to leave, thereby reducing the financial burdens on the State. It cites a survey of over three thousand DACA recipients in which twenty-two percent of respondents said they were likely or very likely to leave the country if DACA ended.130 The Government presents evidence that many recipients would remain without DACA, but that does not controvert Texas’s showing that some would leave.”

  The Fifth Circuit also rejected the common claim that this is nothing more than the exercise of prosecutorial discretion not to prosecute cases:

  “As our court held in DAPA, “‘[a]lthough prosecutorial discretion is broad, it is not “unfettered.”’ Declining to prosecute does not transform presence deemed unlawful by Congress into lawful presence and confer eligibility for otherwise unavailable benefits based on that change.”

  Even if the INA were ambiguous, DACA would fail at step two because it is an unreasonable interpretation of the INA. Like DAPA, DACA “undoubtedly implicates ‘question[s] of deep “economic and political significance” that [are] central to this statutory scheme; had Congress wished to assign that decision to an agency, it surely would have done so expressly.’”

  There is no “clear congressional authorization” for the power that DHS claims.”

  U.S. District Judge Andrew Hanen will now get the case back. He previously decided that the Department of Homeland Security had implemented DACA in violation of the APA.

  In response, the Biden administration has developed a new DACA rule and published it on the Federal Register to satisfy the public notice-and-comment process. The new rule is scheduled to become active on Oct. 31.

  The case could ultimately find its way to the Supreme Court but such a move could only magnify the bad precedent already created in the case for the Administration.

  *  *  *

  And according to the Daily Caller, the Biden administration says it will take legal action after the 5th Circuit decision.

  As a result of the stay that remains in place, no one who currently has #DACA will lose their protection from removal or work authorization. (2/)

  — Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas (@SecMayorkas) October 6, 2022

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  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 18:00

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• JPMorgan Sees Oil Rising Back Over $100 If These Five Conditions Are Met…
  JPMorgan Sees Oil Rising Back Over $100 If These Five Conditions Are Met…

  The OPEC+ meeting has come and gone, with “Fist-bump bro” Biden humiliated…

  TL/DR pic.twitter.com/UQIEmYNktY

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  … and the White House scrambling to save at least a little face…

  *US HAS MADE ITS VIEWS CLEAR TO OPEC MEMBERS: BLINKEN

  OPEC made its views clear to the White House as well

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  … and failing.

  And so, with oil surging – even as the dollar spikes sharply higher – traders are asking two questions: i) is the drop in oil over and ii) how much higher can it get.

  Here are the answers: i) with just a few more weeks left on Biden’s SPR drain mandate, which has soaked up a record 30% of all the “emergency” oil inventory this year…

  

  … and with even less supply coming to market now, Europe about to go turbo on gas to oil switching, and China set to rebound post this month’s congress when Covid Zero will be gradually phased out, we can decisively say that the drop in oil is over.

  As for ii), we go to the head of JPM commodity strategy, Natasha Kaneva, who repeats her long-standing 4Q22 price target of $100/bbl, and says that to realize it, five key forecasted conditions need to play out:

  1. demand needs to bounce 0.9 mbd yoy in 4Q, most of that from gas to oil substitution;
  2. sanctions on Russia need to constrain supply by 600 kbd;
  3. Saudi Arabia production needs to normalize from 11 mbd in September to a sustainable 10.6-10.7 mbd pace;
  4. US SPR releases need to end in October or sooner; and
  5. the US dollar needs to stabilize.

  Kaneva concludes that if four of the above supply-demand conditions materialize, the bank’s models suggest a return to deficits in 4Q22 as supply declines (lower Russian and Saudi production and the end of SPR releases) and demand is supported by incremental gas to oil switching. Adding a stable US dollar to the deficit should result in prices once again re-testing $100 later in the quarter, according to JPMorgan.

  More in the full note available to pro subs.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 11:40

• Biden Blasts "Short-Sighted" OPEC+ Cut, Blames US Energy Firms For Surging Pump Prices
  Biden Blasts “Short-Sighted” OPEC+ Cut, Blames US Energy Firms For Surging Pump Prices

  Update (1125ET):

  The Biden administration is absolutely furious with the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, including Russia, for agreeing to slash oil production by 2 million barrels per day. 

  CNN’s Chief Congressional Correspondent Manu Raju tweeted that Biden responded to the OPEC+ cut announcement by saying he’s “concerned” and called it “unnecessary.” 

  “I need to see what the detail is. I am concerned, it is unnecessary,” Biden says of OPEC+ scaling back oil output of 2 million barrels per day

  — Manu Raju (@mkraju) October 5, 2022

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  Biden’s top national security and economic advisors expressed their disappointment in the OPEC+ production cuts via a statement: 

  The President is disappointed by the shortsighted decision by OPEC+ to cut production quotas while the global economy is dealing with the continued negative impact of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. At a time when maintaining a global supply of energy is of paramount importance, this decision will have the most negative impact on low’er- and middle-income countries that are already reeling from elevated energy prices.

  The President’s work here at home, and with allies around the world, has helped to bring dowm U.S. gas prices: since the beginning of the summer, gas prices are down $1.20 – and the most common price at gas stations today is $3.29/gallon. At the President’s direction, the Department of Energy will deliver another 10 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to the market next month, continuing the historic releases the President ordered in March.

  The President will continue to direct SPR releases as appropriate to protect American consumers and promote energy security, and he is directing the Secretar)’ of Energy to explore any additional responsible actions to continue increasing domestic production in the immediate term. The President is also calling on U.S. energy companies to keep bringing pump prices down by closing the historically large gap between wholesale and retail gas prices — so that American consumers are paying less at the pump.

  In light of today’s action, the Biden Administration will also consult with Congress on additional tools and authorities to reduce OPEC’s control over energy prices.

  Finally, today’s announcement is a reminder of why it is so critical that the United States reduce its reliance on foreign sources of fossil fuels. With the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, the U.S. is nowr poised to make the most significant investment ever in accelerating the clean energy transition while increasing energy security, by increasing our reliance on American-made and American-produced clean energy and energy technologies.

  … and what tools may those be? 

  BIDEN ADMINISTRATION TO CONSULT WITH CONGRESS ON ADDITIONAL TOOLS AND AUTHORITIES TO REDUCE OPEC’S CONTROL OVER ENERGY PRICES -WHITE HOUSE

  Was Burisma energy guru Hunter Biden unavailable?

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 5, 2022

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  We detailed below, ahead of the announcement, the White House said the prospect of a production cut would be a “total disaster” and “hostile act.” 

  It also appears OPEC+ has made its views entirely clear to the White House as well… 

  *US HAS MADE ITS VIEWS CLEAR TO OPEC MEMBERS: BLINKEN

  OPEC made its views clear to the White House as well

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 5, 2022

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  Brent crude finds weekly support above the 100-day moving average. 

  

  Goldman Sachs’ Damien Courvalin breaks down what a 2 million barrels per day OPEC+ cut means for oil markets. 

  *  *  * 

  OPEC+ could be on the verge of one of the largest production cuts in two years, a move White House officials would undoubtedly have a ‘panic attack’ as they attempt to dissuade the 23 crude-producing countries and its allies, such as Russia, from making the cuts. 

  OPEC+ is considering cutting 2 million barrels a day, and on the smaller side, a reduction of 1-1.5 million barrels a day, delegates said. Such a move would be a blow to Washington as the Biden administration has scrambled to unleash record amounts of crude from the strategic petroleum reserve to tame soaring crude prices this summer. 

  “Higher oil prices, if driven by sizeable production cuts, would likely irritate the Biden administration ahead of US midterm elections,” Citi strategists wrote in a note. 

  Citi strategists appear correct: CNN obtained some of the draft talking points circulated by the White House to the Treasury Department this week and called the prospect of a production cut a “total disaster” and “hostile act.” 

  “There could be further political reactions from the US, including additional releases of strategic stocks,” the strategists added. They said the Biden administration could also push forward with an anti-trust bill targeting OPEC.

  But that’s not all. According to Bloomberg, White House officials are discussing possible export bans on gasoline, diesel, and other refined petroleum with the Energy Department. 

  People familiar with discussions said administration officials are discussing export bans of refined products with top oil industry leaders as the risk of an OPEC+ reduction could catapult fuel pump prices higher ahead of the midterm elections in November. 

  And given the resurgence in crude and wholesale gasoline prices, regular pump prices are set to soar again…

  

  Another person said the Energy Department is analyzing the economics of an export ban. Bloomberg said both people familiar with talks asked not to be identified because discussions are still private. 

  Despite Biden’s SPR drain, hitting levels not seen since 1984, the export ban could be the most controversial move yet by the desperate administration to tame pump prices ahead of the midterm elections next month. 

  

  Biden’s political emptying of the SPR has left it with a record low of just 22 days of supply…

  

  Top oil execs and industry experts have blasted the proposed export ban, saying it could backfire and result in even higher gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices, while throwing energy markets into turmoil in Europe ahead of winter. 

  In a letter to the Energy Department, Exxon’s CEO Darren Woods wrote last week that “continuing current Gulf Coast exports is essential to efficiently rebalance markets—particularly with diverted Russian supplies.” 

  “Reducing global supply by limiting US exports to build region-specific inventory will only aggravate the global supply shortfall,” Woods said. 

  On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute warned any attempt to ban exports will disrupt not just global markets but harm US national security and geopolitical standing. API continued: 

  Banning or limiting the export of refined products would likely decrease inventory levels, reduce domestic refining capacity, put upward pressure on consumer fuel prices, and alienate US allies during a time of war. For these reasons, we urge the Biden administration to take this option off the table and focus instead on working with us on policies that will strengthen US energy security and protect consumers.

  API outlined the major points from a July study via the American Council for Capital Formation about the economic impacts of a potential export ban of refined products: 

  1. An export ban could result in the shuttering of an estimated 1.3 million barrels per day of US refining capacity (7% of US total) due to trapped refinery production in the Gulf Coast. The loss of this capacity would likely strand a surplus of crude oil in the Central United States, halting important upstream energy production. 

  2. An export ban could result in higher product prices for US fuel consumers, with more than two-thirds likely to experience price increases of more than 15 cents per gallon for gasoline and 45 cents per gallon for distillates. 

  3. An export ban could cause a net loss to US GDP of more than $44 billion in 2023. 

  4. An export ban could eliminate 85,000 jobs this year and 35,000 job losses during 2023.

  “There simply is not sufficient pipeline connectivity or the range of economic shipping alternatives that would be required to transport significantly more fuel to the East Coast from refineries in the Gulf, API continued, adding, “Banning exports of fuel from the United States will not eliminate this challenge or make it easier and more affordable to supply American-refined fuel to the East Coast. Instead, by cutting into global fuel supplies, it would likely raise the cost of fuel imported into the East Coast from the global market.”

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 11:25

• "The Whites Of Their Eyes"
  “The Whites Of Their Eyes”

  By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

  The Whites of Their Eyes

  “Don’t Fire Until You See the Whites of Their Eyes” was allegedly the command given to soldiers at the Battle of Bunker Hill. The original intent of the order was to ensure that ammunition wasn’t wasted when the shots were unlikely to be effective.

  That has changed over time to mean “don’t act too early.”

  

  But maybe we need to go back to the original order and think about the soldiers (nervous, even scared, facing an enemy likely already firing at them) and imagine how difficult it was to stand their ground and hold their fire until the right moment.

  At Academy, many of my colleagues have faced enemy fire. I think that universally they will tell you how difficult it is. Even with intense training, team building, leadership, and so many other things designed to prepare them for that moment, it is still a difficult test.

  Which brings me to the Fed.

  The Fed has had a consistent message since Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. The Fed doesn’t care about recession and they might even welcome one. They don’t care about job losses, and in fact, they are targeting job losses. They say that they will do anything to fight inflation and that they need to do more, despite:

  • Evidence that rising rates are slowing major purchases and the economy.

  • COVID related supply chain issues and fiscal stimulus created much of the inflation (which had very little to do with monetary policy).

  • Saying that it was transitory for a year or more and now acting as though it is permanent.

  • Anchoring inflation expectations both in surveys and market-based measures.

  • Ignoring their own models that acknowledge prior actions take time to show up in the data.

  • A dangerous geopolitical landscape with North Korea reminding us to pay attention to them and Iran busily working on their nuclear options (in addition to issues with Russia and China).

  • Evidence that QE and QT distort prices more than other traditional tools and unwinding them may be more impactful than thought.

  Will the Fed wait until they see the proverbial whites of their eyes, or will they blink first?

  If your legacy was Mr. Inflation or Mr. Recession, which would you go for?

  We know that the Fed has presented a unified front with the inflation fighting mantra, but does everyone really want to go down with the ship if it is sinking?

  Bottom Line

  Expect weaker data, including jobs.

  The Fed might try to stick to the hawkish rhetoric, but I expect some cracks in the messaging. The bad news is good trade is not over yet, but it needs Fed corroboration, which I expect to happen in the coming days. There will be some “sticking to the inflation fight” mantra, but just enough words will be used to keep this rally alive.

  My view remains that this will morph into “bad news is bad” after that because we’ve already started rolling the rock down the hill and have been pushing when we already should have been pulling it back.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 11:20

• Meanwhile Over At Lehman-Suisse…
  Meanwhile Over At Lehman-Suisse…

  What do credit traders know that equity traders are ignoring?

  While equity prices had risen for the last two days, dragged higher by the market’s melt-up, Credit Suisse credit risk continued to wide dramatically…

  

  For context, with CDS trading at around 373bps, the equity market (price and volatility) is implying a spread around 157bps…

  

  So either CDS is drastically too high, and/or CS stock price is too high (or implied vol too low).

  SocGen analysts wrote this morning that Credit Suisse needs to aggressively deleverage its investment banking operations, suggesting that the stock’s recent decline reflects management leaning toward retaining IB trading operations and reports of it resurrecting the First Boston name.

  Analyst Andrew Lim says capital and liquidity ratios are robust, aggressive restructuring plan can be self-funded and wouldn’t need a capital increase.

  Additionally, HSBC said Credit Suisse has no immediate concerns around liquidity and funding.

  From a more systemic risk perspective, we note that, according to Neue Zürcher Zeitung, the Swiss government could provide liquidity to struggling lender Credit Suisse Group AG, tapping a state-backed safety net for big banks it plans to introduce.

  The government voted in favor of introducing a public liquidity backstop for systemically-relevant banks in March, the newspaper said.

  Officials commissioned the ministry of finance to work out details until mid-2023.

  Specifically, the state would be granted ‘bankruptcy privilege,’ putting it first in line among creditors, to avoid losses to the public coffers in case of default.

  Even though the law would not be passed until next year, officials could move to help Credit Suisse on that basis, NZZ reports, since the Swiss government in early September also gave a credit line of 4 billion francs ($4.1 billion) to struggling electricity company Axpo Holding without a specific legal basis.

  Which may explain why professional credit traders bidding protection still.

  Finally, Reuters reports that the Swiss National Bank is monitoring the situation at Credit Suisse Group AG “closely”.

  “We are monitoring the situation,” Governing Board member Andrea Maechlersaid according to Reuters citing an interview on the sidelines of an event Wednesday.

  “They are working on a strategy due to come out at the end of October.

  Additionally, Swiss regulator Finma has already said it is monitoring the bank’s stability.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 11:07

• Turn Off CNBC And Watch Real Yields
  Turn Off CNBC And Watch Real Yields

  Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

  Investors watch CNBC and CNBC’s competitors for guidance on where the markets are going. CNBC may provide insightful commentary from very qualified investors. Still, if one is watching CNBC to figure out where markets are headed, they may be better served to turn off the TV and look to the bond market for direction.

  Today, real yields, or the bond yield less inflation expectations, helps explain the movement of many assets. If we are to form reasonable expectations for stocks, commodities, the dollar index, and gold prices, we best have an opinion on where real yields are going.

  In this article, we share evidence supporting the recent strong relationship between real yields and risk assets. We then ponder where real yields are heading to help save you the confusion of trying to follow the conflicting bullish and bearish views presented on CNBC.

  What Are Real Yields

  The real yield is the yield an investor expects to receive after inflation. Think of it as the amount of purchasing power a bondholder expects to gain or lose. The inflation figure within the calculation is based on inflation expectations which are a byproduct of the difference between TIP yields and nominal yields.

  In a free market, lenders should be compensated for lending money. The compensation in the form of interest rate should encompass the risk of non-repayment, the opportunity cost of not having the money available, and expected inflation.

  The focus of this article is primarily inflation, but risk and opportunity costs are also high.

  What Do Real Yields Tell Us?

  The graph below charts real five-year Treasury yields since 2005. The current real yield is 1.62%, the highest level since 2009. Since January 1, 2022, the real yield has risen 3.2% (from -1.58% to +1.62%). The composition of the change is important. Since the start of the year, inflation expectations have fallen by .55%, while nominal bond yields are 2.65% higher.

  

  The level of real interest rates is a sturdy gauge of the weight of Federal Reserve policy. If the Fed is treading lightly and not distorting markets, real rates should be slightly positive. The more the Fed manipulates markets from their natural rates, the more negative real rates become. –The Fed’s Ever-Growing Golden Footprint

  Real yields provide a durable gauge helping quantify the degree of Fed dovishness or hawkishness. Today, the Fed is incredibly hawkish, judging by real yields.

  Risk Assets vs. Real Yields

  Before sharing our expectations for where real yields might be in the future, it is worth showing the recent strong relationship between real yields and risk assets.

  Stocks

  Fed actions to halt inflation, including hiking interest rates and QT, reduce liquidity in the financial markets and economy. Accordingly, they are not beneficial for stock prices. When considering allocations to stocks, what matters is the degree to which they apply monetary policy.  

  The graph below shows that the recent increase in real yields is like the sharp jump in October 2008. At that time, the financial system failed, and the Fed introduced QE. In a matter of months, inflation expectations whipsawed from +2.70% to -2.40% and back to zero percent. Nominal yields fell sharply over the period.

  Today’s increase in real yields is due primarily to increasing nominal yields and less so inflation expectations. Accordingly, the increase in real yields will be much more damaging to the economy than the last time real yields were at similar levels.

  

  The following graph shows the strong inverse correlation between real yields and stock prices this year. The Y-axis of the chart pertaining to real yields is in reverse order to highlight the relationship better. The Fed is aggressively removing liquidity, and not surprisingly, stocks are heading lower.

  

  Dollar

  The U.S. dollar has surged this year against all currencies. Recently the linkage between dollar strength and bond weakness has been pronounced.

  The graph below shows the strong correlation between the dollar and real yields this year. The Fed is employing the most aggressive hawkish monetary policy among developed nations. Such policy should keep the dollar well bid, barring central banks intervening in the FX markets.

  

  Commodities

  Commodity prices and the dollar tend to be negatively correlated as most global trade in commodities occurs in U.S. dollars. When the dollar is strong, commodity prices tend to weaken and vice versa.

  Given the strong relationship between the dollar and real yields, the inverse relationship of commodities to real yields is expected. As we did in the S&P 500 graph, the graph’s Y-axis pertaining to real yields is in reverse order.

  

  Gold

  Earlier, we shared a paragraph from The Fed’s Ever-Growing Golden Footprint, which discusses how real yields are a barometer of Fed monetary policy. In particular, the article talks about the strong inverse correlation between gold and real yields, especially when real yields are negative.

  The rationale is that gold prices are largely driven by monetary policy. Gold tends to trade well when the Fed is dovish and pushes real yields below zero. Real yields should never be below zero, as lenders are being punished for lending. As such, negative real yields point to too easy a monetary policy. Given that many consider gold a substitute for money, anything that decreases the value of money is good for gold. Conversely, gold trades poorly when the Fed is hawkish and a better steward of money.

  Gold started the year well, rising about 10% as inflation rose and the Fed was relatively complacent. Real yields increased as the Fed grew increasingly hawkish, and the inverse correlation between gold and real yields grew strong. 

  

  The Million Dollar Question

  Having seen the evidence, you must think that correctly forecasting real yields is the holy grail of investing. While it does appear that way today, relationships change. That said, let’s consider where real yields may be going.

  As we showed earlier, the change in real yields is due to lower inflation expectations and much higher nominal yields. Over more extended periods, nominal yields are a function of economic growth and inflation expectations. Given that high rates are and will be a drag on economic growth and will dampen inflation, we think nominal and real yields will be headed lower over the coming months.

  The current real yield on a five-year Treasury note is 1.62%. Over the last 20 years, the actual real yield attained on five-year notes has averaged 0.47%. Accordingly, five-year yields may be trading over 1% too high.

  The scatter plot below from Fidelity charts weekly levels of the ten-year UST yield and 5×5 inflation expectations. The 5×5 inflation expectation is the implied five-year inflation rate expected five years from now. The current 5×5 inflation rate is 2.28%, similar to the current five-year implied inflation rate is 2.18%. As the graph shows, the current ten-year yield of 3.68% is 1.33% above the 2.35% trend line rate.

  

  We took Fidelity’s analysis a step further and compare the ten-year rate to the five-year implied inflation rate average and the 5×5 inflation rate. This method captures the whole ten years of inflation expectations. Since 2010, the Treasury note was 0.21% above the expected inflation rate on average. Currently, it is 1.40% above it. Bond yields are over 1% too high based on inflation expectations.

  Summary

  CNBC analysts spew all kinds of predictions. But for our precious time and money, we would rather turn off CNBC and instead consider that the future direction of yields may be the best investment advice today.

  The U.S. economy will not function with 7% mortgage rates. The Fed may keep raising rates, but the economy will falter. With it, inflation will decline. Nominal yields should fall precipitously to catch up with inflation and growth fundamentals. Real yields should follow. If so, the outlook for stocks, bonds, gold, and commodities may be brighter than it has been. Conversely, the recent dollar strength may be close to peaking.

  We end with the closing paragraph from Yields are Defying Yesterday’s Logic.

  Tried and trustworthy relationships are failing bond investors. While powerful and concerning, we think the abnormal relationships are temporary. When the supply and demand for bonds normalize, bond investors will likely realize that economic, inflation, and other factors warrant much lower yields.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 10:44

• WTI Rallies After Big Crude, Product Draws
  WTI Rallies After Big Crude, Product Draws

  Oil prices are extremely noisy this morning with OPEC+ headlines dominating price action (after prices surged 9% in the past two days in anticipation of this move by the cartel).

  “Near term OPEC has put a floor in crude,” but the 2 million barrel cut was largely priced in already on Tuesday, said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management.

  We also note that Hurricane Ian’s impact may already be affecting some of this week’s inventory, production, and implied demand after API reported unexpectedly large crude and product draws.

  API

  • Crude -1.77mm

  • Cushing +925k

  • Gasoline -3.47mm

  • Distillates -4.05mm – biggest draw since Mar 2022

  DOE

  • Crude -1.356mm (-1.00mm exp)

  • Cushing +273k

  • Gasoline -4.728mm – lowest overall inventory since 2014

  • Distillates -3.443mm

  The official DOE data confirmed API with large crude and product draws seen last week…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  Gasoline stocks fell to their lowest since 2014…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  6.194mm barrels were drained from the Strategic Midterm Reserve…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  As a reminder, the SPR is now at a record low 22 days of supply…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  Something else to note on US crude exports, it’s the second time ever that we’ve registered above 4m b/d on a 4-week average. 

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  So US gas prices are about to soar so Europe can have some fuel?

  Gasoline demand destruction continues to show up…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  US Crude production was flat on the previous week

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  WTI was hovering around $86.50 ahead of the official data print and rallied above $87 after the big draws…

  

  “I see some some persistence upside certainly from a supply perspective. Two million barrels a day is a substantial cut,” said Harry Altham, energy analyst for StoneX Group.

  “But of course, that doesn’t detract from the longer-term implications of demand destruction” from slowing global economies, he added.

  Finally, we note that all of this likely implies pump prices will continue rising into the MidTerms and Biden’s “tools” are running out to ‘fix’ that…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  Who will he blame now?

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 10:37

• What Does OPEC's 2 Million b/d Cut Really Mean: Goldman Crunches The Numbers
  What Does OPEC’s 2 Million b/d Cut Really Mean: Goldman Crunches The Numbers

  On the surface, the OPEC+ headline cut of 2mb/d sounds very large, but the cut is from baselines and there were no revisions to the baselines… which means that to figure out the real impact of the “gross” cut one needs to net out countries which are already producing well below their quotas.

  As Goldman’s Damien Courvalin writes, given Russia is under-producing by c.1.3 mb/d versus its current quotas, it would need to be exempted for a 2mb/d cut to add up. Additionally, Russia is unlikely to allow for a quota much below its capacity. Meanwhile, the other countries in the aforementioned list have not displayed the level of capacity erosion observed in much of the rest of OPEC+.

  From this alternative perspective, Goldman believes that such a baseline adjustment is worth approximately 1.5 mb/d alone (even excluding a Russia rebasement). As such, the bank believes that the 2mb/d headline OPEC+ cut would only be implemented as an incremental 0.5 mb/d quota cut on top of such a baseline change.

  Net, this only amounts to an effective cut of 400-600 mb/d versus Goldman’s expected November/Nov-22 – Dec-23 expectations from the bank’s 27-Sep-22 balances respectively. This is very similar to the 1mb/d announced quota cut scenario from the bank’s previous report, which we discussed here.

  

  More in the full Goldman note available to pro subs.

  Energy Intel’s Amena Bakr confirm’s Goldman’s math:

  • Here is the answer: Adjust downward the overall production by 2 mb/d, from the August 2022 required production levels, starting November 2022 for OPEC and Non-OPEC Participating Countries
  • This means an actual cut of a little under 1 million bpd

  This means an actual cut of a little under 1 million bpd #OOTT

  — Amena Bakr (@Amena__Bakr) October 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  As a bonus, here is Bloomberg commodity guru Julian Lee with his initial calculation of what the new targets would look like for key OPEC+ members (in thousand barrels a day):

  • Saudi Arabia and Russia: 10,481 from 11,004
  • UAE: 3,028 from 3,179
  • Kuwait: 2,544 from 2,811
  • Iraq: 4,430 from 4,651
  • OPEC-10: 25,421 from 26,689
  • OPEC+: 41,856 from 43,856

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 10:14

• Services Surveys Signal Q3 Recession Imminent Amid "Tightening Financial Conditions"
  Services Surveys Signal Q3 Recession Imminent Amid “Tightening Financial Conditions”

  Despite bouncing from August’s plunge, S&P Global’s Services PMI printed below 50 (in contraction) for the 3rd month in a row (at 49.3). Of course, in keeping with the idiocy, ISM Services printed 56.7 (below 56.9 in August but well above the 56.0 expected)…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  The pictures from ISM and PMI data remain mixed (as ever) with ISM data slowed in September while S&P Global rose…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  Under the hood of ISM, Services Prices and New Orders slowed while employment improved…

  

  Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

  “With service sector activity declining for a third straight month in September, businesses have faced a tough third quarter. Economic growth has come under pressure from falling output in both the manufacturing and service sectors, though in both cases September has seen some encouraging signals that business conditions may be starting to improve.

  “Driving this improvement is a cooling of inflationary pressures in manufacturing supply chains, which is in turn alleviating cost growth for goods and energy in both manufacturing and service sectors, helping stimulate demand and allaying some concerns about the economic outlook.

  “The worry is that tightening financial conditions, and notably higher borrowing costs, are exerting increased cost pressures on households and businesses, as well as hitting growth in the vast financial services sector, which has seen the steepest downturns in both demand and business activity in recent months and saw yet another marked worsening of business conditions in September.

  “Furthermore, despite easing, inflationary pressures in terms of firms’ costs and average selling prices for goods and services remain elevated. With companies also reporting staffing issues and rising wages due to very tight labor market conditions, persistent inflation remains a concern at the same time that the economy appears to be struggling to regain momentum.”

  The S&P Global US Composite PMI Output Index posted 49.5 in September, notably up from 44.6 in August, but still in contraction overall as a further decline in output at service providers outweighed a slight expansion at manufacturers.

  

  But, as S&P Global concludes, hopes of greater client demand, a peaking of inflation and investment in new products drove business expectations for the year-ahead to the highest for four months.

  So we are back to ‘hope’?

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 10:06

• Looting "Will Get Progressively Worse" Amid Hurricane Ian Chaos, Sheriff Warns
  Looting “Will Get Progressively Worse” Amid Hurricane Ian Chaos, Sheriff Warns

  Authored by Lorenz Duschamps via The Epoch Times,

  As parts of Florida face a long road to recovery following extraordinary damage caused by Hurricane Ian, some people have already been taking advantage of the situation and started looting amid the chaos.

  

  William Snyder, the sheriff of Martin County, told TCPalm that he doesn’t expect looters to calm down, fearing the worst. He said looters already went on a spree of stealing and ransacking structures “very early” after the Category 4 storm made landfall in western Florida last week.

  “It was very early and some of the looting was starting already, but it will get progressively worse, I think, as people become more desperate,” Snyder, who was dispatched as part of a 15-person rapid response team on Sept. 30 to assist in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian in Charlotte County, told the publication.

  Shortly after the team’s arrival in Charlotte, officials encountered “dazed” residents, as well as several “pretty sketchy people” looking for water, food, and fuel, but nobody was arrested at the time.

  However, sometime later, Snyder received reports of people stealing gas-powered generators that were supposed to be powering traffic control devices.

  “When they bolted those down, they chained them down, they started stealing the gas out of the generators,” the sheriff told TCPalm.

  A day after the team’s arrival, they received a report about a house that was burning after the homeowner put a generator in the garage because he was so fearful that looters would steal their backup generator. The house was a total loss, Snyder said.

  “The challenge that stuck out to me the most was just how fragile society is when electricity and water go,” the sheriff added.

  “No gas, no electric, no water, and everything starts to come to a stop.”

  ‘We Have Law and Order’

  In nearby Lee County, Sheriff Carmine Marceno issued a stark warning to would-be-looters after a group of four people—including three illegal immigrants—were arrested on Sept. 29 for taking advantage of the situation.

  A warning to looters is painted on the side of a car destroyed during Hurricane Ian in Pine Island, Fla., on Oct. 3, 2022. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

  “As far as looting—we have law and order in Lee County. We have law and order in our great state of Florida, and we always will,” said Marceno.

  “Right now, we have four cases of looting, and I’m proud to say they’re behind bars where they belong. Our residents are going to be safe.”

  Marceno added that three of the arrested individuals—Robert Mena, Brandon Araya, and Stephen Araya—were illegally inside the United States while they were caught looting in Lee County.

  Lee County jail records show that Brandon Mauricio Araya, 20; Stephen Eduardo Sanchez Araya, 20; Valerie Celeste Salcedo Mena, 26; and Omar Mejia Ortiz, 33, were arrested for burglary of an unoccupied structure during a state of emergency. Ortiz also faces petit larceny charges.

  Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, among other officials, have issued similar messages to would-be looters after reports emerged that people allegedly started traveling to stricken islands and ransacking properties.

  “I can tell you, in the state of Florida, you never know what may be lurking behind somebody’s home, and I would not wanna chance that if I were you, given that we’re a Second Amendment state,” DeSantis said, who noted that some Floridians have firearms.

  Some residents also “boarded up all the businesses, and there are people that wrote on their plywood, ‘you loot, we shoot,’” DeSantis added. “At the end of the day, we are not going to allow lawlessness to take advantage of this situation.”

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 09:45

• It's Geopolitics And Geoeconomics Amateur Hour At The White House Again
  It’s Geopolitics And Geoeconomics Amateur Hour At The White House Again

  By Michael Every of Rabobank

  OPEC+/RBNZ divots in BOE/RBA pivots

  Markets were already starting a bear market rally helped by the shifting (quick)sands of UK politics, where more policy U-turns may be underway; the Chancellor tried to suggest the Queen’s death might have played a role in the messy mini-budget launch; and one journalist notes: “This Tory conference is so amazingly messy I still can’t believe it’s real. Ministers going completely rogue, MPs barely here but still throwing shade left, right & centre, Tory members downing champagne while half laughing/half crying “we’re all f****d”. It’s WILD.” That Keystone Cops dynamic had already led to the desperate “not QE or MMT!” actions of the BOE.

  Then the RBA only hiked 25bp, not the 50bp 80% priced in, front-running even its own dovish pivot. “The Board is committed to returning inflation to the 2–3% range over time. Today’s increase in interest rates will help achieve this goal and further increases are likely to be required over the period ahead,” said the Governor, knowing full well his actions would be taken dovishly and bring down expectations of the rates peak to around 3% – versus around 8% expected inflation this year; above 2% inflation until 2025; a red-hot labour market; and a government more pro-labour than capital for once.  

  While pivoting he noted, “inflation in Australia is too high. Global factors explain much of this high inflation, but strong domestic demand relative to the ability of the economy to meet that demand is also playing a role… national income is being boosted by a record level of the terms of trade. The labour market is very tight and many firms are having difficulty hiring workers… Wages growth is continuing to pick up from the low rates of recent years…. Given the tight labour market and the upstream price pressures, the Board will continue to pay close attention to both the evolution of labour costs and the price-setting behaviour of firms in the period ahead.”

  So why pivot? “The expected moderation in inflation next year reflects the ongoing resolution of global supply-side problems, recent declines in some commodity prices and the impact of rising interest rates.” In other words, the RBA still thinks inflation is transitory(!); and the focus is, out of character, on the rest of the world – ‘A big economy did it and ran away.’  

  However, this was really all about housing: “Higher inflation and higher interest rates are putting pressure on household budgets, with the full effects of higher interest rates yet to be felt in mortgage payments. Consumer confidence has also fallen and housing prices are declining after the earlier large increases. Working in the other direction, people are finding jobs, gaining more hours of work and receiving higher wages.” In short, everyone has a job; wages are going up; but after further crazy upwards movement, housing prices are finally coming down… so time to pivot. The Bank also rolled out its “Don’t Panic!” trick to explain why housing will be OK: “many households have large financial buffers.” Yes, the ones *without* large mortgages! Everyone in markets can see it’s the Reserve Bank of Austr-house-lia.

  However, despite an initial drop, AUD was not hit too hard, just as GBP has rallied in recent sessions. There is a key message in that.

  While the UK and Australia were pushed off their hawkish paths by asset prices, the real focus is the US. In both cases the initial market reaction was to push *US* yields and the *US dollar* lower, pricing for a Fed pivot. If it doesn’t, then we will see the UK and Australia punished for not being to keep up the pace, with higher yields and/or much lower currencies for both.

  On that front, we got an important US data point in the form of the JOLTS jobs number, which saw the largest fall since 2020. That will register with the Fed. However, it cannot be looked at in isolation as presented by some: it has to be set alongside the incredible surge in jobs on offer ahead of it, which was not the pattern in 2020. Even after this decline there are still 1.67 jobs on offer for every worker. Even presuming the labour market lags, does that say pivot now when the Fed has made clear it is expecting to see higher unemployment, not a lower ratio of excess jobs available, in order to bring inflation down? Hardly!

  That said, we got a speech from non-voter San Fran Fed Daly which, while excoriating inflation as a “corrosive disease” also notably added, “We have to acknowledge and understand the impact that raising the interest rate or dollar appreciation against other currencies has on global growth and on global financial conditions, because ultimately, those things feed back into onto the US.”

  However, as I keep underlining, the real world is not playing ball. Indeed, alongside the lower yields and US dollar in recent sessions we have seen higher commodity prices. Moreover, besides that simple dynamic we have a geopolitical one.  

  OPEC+ meets today, and reportedly Russia and Saudi Arabia are combining to cut output by as much as 2m barrels a day. In other words, supply destruction to match demand destruction; so energy inflation even into a recession. And higher energy is already seeing supply destruction in fertilizers; with a lag, that will mean supply destruction in food; and then workers will demand higher wages so they can still eat.

  CNN reports the White House is “having a spasm and panicking” as the most senior US energy, economic, and foreign policy officials lobby against production cuts, which some draft talking points frame as a “total disaster” that could be taken as a “hostile act.” Indeed, the US is reportedly “taking the gloves off,” and language used also includes the phrase that: “There is great political risk to your reputation and relations with the US and the west if you move forward.” What is the US going to do? Invade? Encourage the Saudis to deal more with Russia and China, reducing supply to the West even more? It is geopolitics and geoeconomics amateur hour (again)!

  On which note, the EU has agreed on its Russia oil price cap, the ‘details’ of which are to be released today. One part is clear: no more EU technology to help Russian energy production, which will reduce output over time – and so push prices higher. The rest is so unclear it looks like an inverse South Park Underpants Gnomes strategy: “Step one: Russian oil price cap – Step two: ? – Step three: No Russian profit.” Greece has already agreed a carve-out for its tankers, apparently.

  Relatedly, Russia is said to be moving towards either embracing all forms of crypto for payment, or a digital RUB. How do you think the US is going to respond? More light touch Wall Street crypto regulation and lower Fed Funds to allow everyone thinking of moving back into the labour market to stay at home and trade NFTs of monkeys wearing sunglasses again? Even Kim Kardashian just got slapped with a $1.2m fine by the SEC for plugging a crypto asset.

  Today also saw the RBNZ hike 50bp to 3.50% and note they had discussed a 75bp move, like major central banks, not a 25bp one, like the Reserve Bank of Austr-house-lia. The NZD gained 0.9% on this news and linked comments that the RBNZ is worried about the inflation pass through from a weaker currency – which Australia should note well. (And by the way, New Zealand has a housing market they very much love too.)

  Even back on the BOE, all the GBP2.22bn of Gilts it was offered at its Tuesday daily reverse auction aimed at stabilising markets were rejected. FinTwit gossip adds: “institutional Gilt broker I know, on why BoE not buying Gilts… “BOE insisting on QT commencement on the 31st Oct (which I think is ridiculous while tightening hard at the Front). BOE aren’t willing to buy these longs at Mid. All just a backstop to contain systemic risk.”

  Sorry for the structural divot in your BOE/RBA pivot, Mr. Market.

  Finally, Elon Musk Twitter bait-and-switched away from his ‘AI robot’, which looks like a geriatric Terminator in a nursing home that needs other robots to look after it, towards a peace-deal between Russia and Ukraine, before pivoting back to Twitter which –surprise-surprise, having signed a water-tight legally-binding agreement with him– he will be buying after all. Let’s see what now happens to Western political and market debate: it can’t get much worse to be honest.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 09:25

• TWTR Slides After Report Musk, Twitter Have Not Yet Reach Agreement To End Litigation
  TWTR Slides After Report Musk, Twitter Have Not Yet Reach Agreement To End Litigation

  Update: for all those who sold TWTR stock yesterday, congrats.

  Smart https://t.co/cFGl1816Vu

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 4, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  To everyone else, the rollercoaster is back, with Reuters reporting that – shockingly –  there is actually no deal actual deal to end the litigation:

  • ELON MUSK, TWITTER LEGAL TEAM HAVE NOT YET REACHED AGREEMENT TO END LITIGATION – SOURCES FAMILIAR WITH THE LITIGATION

  As a reminder, one of the conditions Musk required for the deal to go through at its original terms, was for trial to be adjourned. And now that appears to be a hang up.

  

  * * *

  Following Tuesday’s Musk shocker which sent Twitter stock soaring more than 20%, TWTR has slumped in premarket trading with shares nearly 106% below Elon Musk’s $54.20 offer price as analysts point out the “unknowns” surrounding the transaction. While they expect the deal to go through, further challenges lie ahead for Musk as he will now need to fix the social media firm’s issues.

  Courtesy of Bloomberg, here is a snapshot of sellside reactions:

  MKM Partners (neutral, PT $48)

  • “If both parties agree (again) on the proposal, a trial would be averted, and Twitter could potentially cease to be a public company by the end of next week”
  • However, this isn’t a done deal “as there are no guarantees that Musk would still follow through with his proposal and close the transaction”

  Stifel (hold, PT $30)

  • This is yet another surprising twist in the ongoing back and forth between Twitter and Musk, “but it’s likely the last change of course”

  If Twitter’s next phase does not include some form of advertising, that might be a marginal positive for some social platforms like SNAP and PINS

  Citi (neutral, PT raised to deal price of $54.20 from $40)

  • While there are still some unknowns around the transaction, the deal “is now likely to close which is also likely to improve overall operations going forward”

  Wells Fargo (equal weight, PT $54.20)

  • Musk embarking on significant changes to TWTR supporting more expansive speech rights, could likely have a negative impact on brand advertising spend
  • Marketers could then reduce brand spend on the platform and redeploy experimental ad budgets on emerging short-form and long-form video advertising platforms like TikTok, META’s Reels, GOOGL’s YouTube Shorts, SNAP’s Spotlight, PINS’ Idea Pins

  Morningstar

  • Under Musk, Twitter could “experience mixed reactions from large advertisers who likely will assume the content on the platform will become even more heavily weighted toward politics”
  • On the other hand, Musk’s strong following could benefit TWTR’s subscription revenue model

  Wedbush (neutral, PT raised to deal price of $54.20 from $50)

  • The deal will mostly likely close in the next few weeks “with minimal speed bumps to overcome once the Twitter Board officially accepts and removes the lawsuit in Delaware Court”
  • Buying Twitter was “the easy part of this deal,” the hard part will be fixing it with monetization and subscriber engagement

  Truist Securities (hold, PT $43)

  • While the take-out price is a material premium to peers, “relative to expectations and to peers, TWTR’s results in 2Q22 trailed materially”
  • “With the deal effectively concluded, the heavy lifting is next”
  • Musk will now have to fix the “business, which has been challenged across products, ad formats and user engagement”

  Baird Equity Research (neutral, PT $54)

  • Raising our price target to reflect the intention to consummate the deal

  CFRA (hold, PT raised to $54 from $42)

  • The deal could close “very soon”
  • “Musk’s first order of business will need to be focused on repairing a damaged employee base and finding the right leadership team”

  Of course, the situation remains fluid and as we said yesterday…

  How long until Musk changes his mind this time

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 4, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  … Musk may change his mind at any moment.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 09:22

• Oil Rallies As OPEC+ Agrees Historic 2 Million B/D Production Cut, Shuns Biden
  Oil Rallies As OPEC+ Agrees Historic 2 Million B/D Production Cut, Shuns Biden

  As was well-telegraphed – and despite The White House’s sabre-rattling – OPEC+ JMMC has recommended the cartel to go ahead with a historic 2 million b/d production cut.

  One delegate has confirmed this cut is from baseline levels. This means the production cut is less than 2 million b/d directly since current actual production levels are already below quota. However, it is still a sizable cut.

  As ArgusMedia reports, the extent to which any cut to November quotas will reduce actual supply will depend on how OPEC+ members fare in meeting their targets this month and how the cut is distributed.

  The group as a whole fell 3.58mn b/d below its collective ceiling in August, according to an average of secondary source estimates.

  If agreed by ministers at their meeting in Vienna today, it will mark the biggest cut since the group reduced its collective quota by 9.7mn b/d during the early stages of the Covid crisis in 2020.

  WTI is extending gains on the news, rallying back above $87 at 7-week highs…

  

  This is not good news for the American consumer as gas prices are about to start accelerating again…

  

  And that is not good news for President Biden’s approval rating…

  

  We await The White House statement ‘mulling’ a reaction to this clear dissent of the unipolar order.

  

  As we have detailed recently, this is a direct message to The Fed and The White House…

  Food for thought…OPEC can cut more/longer than Biden administration can release from SPR. This OPEC meeting a wakeup call for US politicians that energy inflation is going to be STICKY.

  — Dan Pickering (@pickeringenergy) October 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 09:11

• Show-Of-Force Fail: South Korean Missile Malfunctions And Crashes, Causing Panic
  Show-Of-Force Fail: South Korean Missile Malfunctions And Crashes, Causing Panic

  What was supposed to be a South Korean show of force ended in humiliation on Wednesday as a ballistic missile malfunctioned and crashed near a South Korean city, triggering panic. There were no injuries — beyond those to the military’s own reputation.

  According to the Associated Press, citing South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, a short-range missile blew up on an air force base near the coastal city of Gangneung. South Korean authorities said the warhead did not explode. 

  Video purporting to show the fiery aftermath circulated on social media: 

  South Korea bombed its own military base when its missile launch failed. pic.twitter.com/TsIIH5SD1N

  — Sentletse 🇷🇺🇿🇦 (@Sentletse) October 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The failed missile launch was part of a broader saber-rattling response to North Korea’s successful launch of an intermediate-range ballistic missile that flew over Japanese airspace on Tuesday.

  That missile demonstrated a record distance capability for a North Korean missile. It was said to have traveled some 2,800 miles, with analysts saying it has the range to hit the bases on the U.S. territory of Guam.  

  In their ensuing show-of-force drills, U.S. F-16 and South Korean F-15 fighter jets on Tuesday hit an island target off South Korea’s west coast, using Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) bombs. Wednesday brought surface-to-surface missile launches. 

  The embarrassment over the misfire was compounded by the South Korean military’s inept handling of the incident, reports AP:  

  The explosion and subsequent fire panicked and confused residents of the coastal city of Gangneung, who were already uneasy over the increasingly provocative weapons tests by rival North Korea.

  Their concern that it could be a North Korean attack only grew as the military and government officials provided no explanation about the explosion for hours.

  Posting on Facebook, legislator Kwon Seong-dong, who represents Gangneung, said a “weapons system operated by our blood-like taxpayer money ended up threatening our own people.” He also assailed the military’s prolonged silence: “It was an irresponsible response. They don’t even have an official press release yet.”

  

  The errant missile was a Hyunmoo-2, which the Center for Strategic and International Studies describes as a short-range, solid-fueled ballistic missile. Fired from road-mobile launchers, recent variants are about 42 feet long, carry high explosive payloads and have a range of 500 miles. 

  

  The U.S.-South Korean show of force will soon be buttressed by the presence an aircraft carrier: The USS Ronald Reagan is being deployed to the waters east of the peninsula. 

  The UN Security Council is set to meet on Wednesday to discuss North Korea’s missile launch. With China and Russia resisting a public discussion of the issue, it’s unclear if they will instead meet privately. Either way, there’s little expectation of a substantial response. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 08:55

• OPEC's Counterattack…
  OPEC’s Counterattack…

  Via Adventures In Capitalism,

  The Federal Reserve has been attacking inflation. The problem is that after printing trillions of dollars, they’re ill-equipped to succeed at their task. Partly, this is because all that cash has to go somewhere and partly this is because their mandate does not extend into ensuring that global energy production expands. While Owners’ Equivalent Rent and wages have remained elevated, those are often seen as the “good” sort of inflation—or at least the benign sort. Meanwhile, all other forms of inflation tend to be characterized as “bad” and frequently the “bad” inflation is caused by elevated energy prices, which then increase the costs of producing and transporting everything else. Therefore, despite the Fed ignoring the inflation they caused for well over a year, when oil cleared $100 a barrel, the Fed finally felt that they had no choice but to do something.

  The problem is that the only ways to reduce the price of oil are to produce more of it or consume less of it. It’s hard to produce more when the President and many of his powerful oligarch buddies are aggressively intervening to ensure that it’s difficult to expand or finance production. Meanwhile, no one wants to invest when there are constant threats of excess profits taxes, carbon taxes, expropriation and price caps. Since the obvious solution has been made so impossible, the Fed has been forced to embark on a plan to reduce global energy consumption.

  

  How do you reduce oil consumption?? Well, it seems that their plan is to create a global depression. So, after a decade of paying lip-service to “inclusive economics” and “closing the wealth gap,” the Fed has been forced to pivot and destroy the finances of the world’s poor, in the hopes that they’ll consume less oil. For the past half-year, this plan has unfolded with the usual crescendo of mini-temblors as global growth screeches to a halt and over-leveraged institutions find themselves on the wrong side of asset depreciation. The Fed is now well on its way towards creating an economic crisis that will reduce global energy consumption—consequences be damned.

  

  Naturally, most global citizens do not want a lower standard of living so that US consumers can continue their orgy of excess. In fact, many global citizens owe their current standard of living due to elevated energy prices. Hence, after watching Biden liquidate the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in order to improve his polling numbers, while watching the Fed directly target their standard of living and that of their customers, OPEC has had enough. They’re going to do something about the Fed and its war on oil. OPEC has finally launched a counterattack. Last month, they agreed to cut output by 100,000 bbl/d. It was meant as a warning that went unheeded. Tomorrow, they’re going to Blitzkrieg the Fed.

  No one knows how big the cuts will be and frankly, it doesn’t matter how large they are. Instead, the message is clear—the Fed can crash global GDP in their fight against oil, but OPEC wields a much larger stick and will cut production even faster. In fact, OPEC will DO WHATEVER IT TAKES if the Fed continues on this path. OPEC has drawn a line under the price of oil and told the Fed that it’s wasting its time. OPEC controls the price of oil and oil is the world’s Central Banker, not the Fed.

  

  On Monday morning, the market heard that message loud and clear. The Fed is trapped, oil is going higher, and the Fed is powerless to contain it. Why would the Fed continue trying to blow up the world’s financial markets if oil will not bend to their will??

  Let’s look at a country like India that imports almost all of its energy. The Federal Reserve has effectively been saying, “they’re a poor country, we’ll break them and then global oil consumption will decline and US citizens will have cheaper oil.” Meanwhile, OPEC is saying, “India is a large and growing customer of ours. We’ll defend them against the Fed. Sure, they’ll pay more for their oil, but that’s much better than having the Fed detonate their currency, banking system and economy.” The battle lines are now drawn and OPEC is taking the mantle from the Fed. The market is loving it.

  The Fed tends to be the last ones to realize anything when it comes to economics and the markets, so they likely haven’t internalized what OPEC just told them. However, the stock market understood it instantly, having one of the largest 2-day rallies in years. We’re getting much closer to The Pause. The Fed still needs to break something before they can declare victory and reduce rates, but The Pause is near—maybe not near in terms of price, but certainly in terms of when they pause. OPEC’s counterattack has changed the calculus and the Fed is now on the backfoot. If you can’t win at something, why try?? Especially if you’re going to leave casualties all over the financial markets.

  On the topic of OPEC, here’s some quick math. Global supply and demand are roughly in balance today. Add in 1.5 million bbl/d of global SPR releases that will end soon, add in 2 million bbl/d of reduced demand from Chinese covid lock-downs that appear to be ending, add in 1 million bbl/d that Russian oil will decline by in 2023 (at a minimum), add in the 1 million bbl/d that global demand seems to expand by each year and assume that global supply somehow grows by 1 million bbl/d (though it isn’t clear where that growth would be coming from) and you have a 4.5 million bbl/d swing in 2023. Now add in whatever OPEC chooses and you realize that there’s an imminent and exponential crisis for the consumers of oil.

  Of course, the Fed could destroy enough global GDP to erase 4.5 million bbl/d of global oil demand and stop the price from exploding, but OPEC just told them that they’ll DO WHATEVER IT TAKES. Do you think the Fed continues its war on GDP when they now know they’ll fail to contain the price of oil??

  

  In 2023, energy will be the only thing that matters to investors. Everything else, including the Fed will be a side-show. Who’s ready for the insanity wave?? Ever since Monday, I’ve been maxing it all out in energy. I’ve been ripping right-tails all over the screen. Oil is going to wreck all the other CUSIPS. The S&P is partying this week because the Fed is cornered by OPEC, but that’s only because speculators don’t realize what this means for the price of oil.

  We just had a half-year pause in my oil thesis, now it’s about to resume with the sort of vigor that comes from a good long nap. Hope you’re ready…

  *  *  *

  Disclosure: Funds that I control have an obscene amount of energy exposure. Equities, options, futures, futures options, ETFs, you name it, we probably have it…

  If you enjoyed this post, subscribe at http://www.adventuresincapitalism.com

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 08:35

• ADP Reports Better Than Expected Jump In Jobs In September, Wage Growth Accelerates
  ADP Reports Better Than Expected Jump In Jobs In September, Wage Growth Accelerates

  Ahead of Friday’s big number, and following last month’s dismal print (under its new model regime) which dramatically under-predicted the payrolls print in August, ADP was expected to show a modest uptick in September of 200k jobs. The actual print came in at +208k jobs but most notably, the +132k print from August was revised drastically higher to +185k…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  ADP’s Nela Richardson notes that “there are signs that people are returning to the labor market. We’re in an interim period where we’re going to continue to see steady job gains. Employer demand remains robust and the supply of workers is improving–for now.”

  The goods-producing sector lost 29,000 jobs in September while Services gained 237k…

  

  Job changers, who have been notching double-digit, year-over-year gains since the summer of 2021, lost momentum in September. Their annual pay rose 15.7 percent, down from a revised 16.2 percent gain in August. It’s the biggest deceleration in the three-year history of our data…

  

  For job stayers, annual pay rose 7.8 percent in September from a year ago, up from a revised 7.7 percent in August.

  

  According to ADP, US private employment is back above pre-COVID levels…

  

  Finally, as a reminder, even under its new model, ADP has been a serial underpredictor relative to the BLS payrolls print…

  

  Which means this Friday’s print will likely not be bad enough to prompt any Fed pause.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 08:24

• Futures Fall As Rally Fizzles, Dollar Spikes Amid Fresh Doubts Of Fed Pivot
  Futures Fall As Rally Fizzles, Dollar Spikes Amid Fresh Doubts Of Fed Pivot

  After the best 2-day rally since April 2020, the best start to a new quarter since 2009 and the best start of a Q4 since 2002, the powerful rally fizzled and US equity-index futures fell as investors pushed back on bets for less hawkish central banks amid the latest surge in oil, and sought more evidence that inflation is moderating. In other words, unlike yesterday, stock algos finally noticed what oil was doing.

  Stock algos still haven’t noticed what oil is doing. impressive

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 4, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Futures tracking S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.9% each after the underlying indexes scaled two-week highs on Tuesday. And as the dollar rebounded for the first time in three days, Treasuries slid across the curve as oil swung ahead of the OPEC+ meeting today where the cartel is expected to cut output by as much as 2mmb/d.

  

  In premarket trading, Twitter dropped 0.4% after Tuesday’s jump. Shares remain nearly 5% below Elon Musk’s $54.20 offer price as analysts say there are still “unknowns” around the transaction, although they expect the deal to go through. Further challenges lie ahead for Musk as he will now need to fix the social-media firm’s issues, analysts say. Here are the other notable premarket movers:

  • Church & Dwight shares rise 0.6% in US premarket trading, after the consumer-products maker was upgraded to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank, with the broker saying that, while the stock has taken a break, it is not “broken.”
  • Emerson Electric (EMR US) shares rise as much as 2.9% in US premarket trading after the industrial-tech company was said to be in talks with buyout firm Blackstone to sell some of its commercial and residential solutions assets. Citi said a potential divestiture could give Emerson the opportunity to further simplify its portfolio.
  • US- listed Macau casino stocks could be in focus after Hong Kong- listed peers surged amid optimism over a travel rebound during the seven-day Golden Week holiday period. Watch Wynn Resorts, Las Vegas Sands, Melco Resorts and MGM Resorts

  Today’s reversal, which followed the biggest drop in job openings on record (outside of the covid lockdowns), comes as a growing number of money managers is cautioning (again) that expectations for a so-called Fed pivot are (again) overdone and risk ignoring the economic pain that would underpin such a dovish tilt should policymakers opt for it. With several Fed officials reiterating their focus on reducing inflation, US jobs numbers due Friday and a new earnings-reporting season may provide the next catalysts for markets.

  “A dovish pivot requires more evidence of weaker growth and a decisive fall in inflation,” Emmanuel Cau, the head of European equity strategy at Barclays Plc, wrote in a note. “We doubt equities are out of the woods yet.”

  Elsewhere, as noted above, OPEC+ is considering its biggest production cut since 2020, a move Washington is trying to head off with furious diplomatic efforts. The group is set to discuss a cut to its output limits of as much as 2 million barrels a day, using current targets as a starting point. While a significant move, the actual impact on global supply would be smaller as several countries pump below their quotas/

  Meanwhile, investors’ attention remained focused on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data, which is expected to show 263,000 jobs were added in September: “For the market to continue higher, the jobs data will have to be in line with, or short of expectations,” said Lindsey Bell, chief markets and money strategist at Ally.

  Europe’s Stoxx 600 halted its best three-day advance since November 2020. The gauge fell 0.7%, trimming some of its 5.3% rally since Thursday. Real estate, auto-parts and retail shares slid the most. Here are some of the biggest European movers:

  • Shop Apotheke shares gain as much as 11%, the most since early July, after preliminary third-quarter results beat expectations. Analysts say it was a strong quarter, with adjusted Ebitda remaining in positive territory.
  • Infineon rises as much as 4.8%, leading semiconductor peers higher, with analysts from Citi and Jefferies bullish on the chipmaker’s near-term demand and longer-term growth following a conference call with the company.
  • Anima Holding rises as much as 7.3%, the most intraday since April 8, and is among the day’s top performers on the FTSE Italia All-Share Index; Reuters reported on Tuesday that Italy favors keeping the company in domestic hands and could raise the stake it holds through Poste Italiane.
  • Tesco drops as much as 3.9% after the UK grocer provided guidance that Jefferies analysts say is “more cautiously nuanced,” while Bernstein analysts flagged possible margin pressure.
  • Credit Suisse declines as much as 3.9% as Societe Generale analysts say the firm needs to aggressively deleverage its investment banking operations.
  • The Stoxx 600 Automobiles & Parts Index declines, the worst- performing subgroup on Wednesday, led by parts suppliers and tiremakers. Continental AG drops as much as 7.2%, Valeo -6.4%
  • Shares in Avanza and Nordnet slide as much as 9.8% and 8.5%, respectively, after the Swedish retail trading and savings platforms presented their latest monthly statistics, which both showed negative net savings in September.
  • Vallourec drops as much as 8.9%, falling below the price at which stockholders sold 14.4m shares after the close Tuesday.

  Earlier in the session, equity markets gained ground across Asia, catching up with overnight moves in the US. Hong Kong stocks posted their best rally since March after a one-day break amid optimism that the global monetary policy tightening cycle will ease. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 2.1% on Wednesday, led by a surge in consumer discretionary and tech stocks such as TSMC and Alibaba. That brings the measure’s two-day rally to about 4.6%, the best since March. Stocks in Hong Kong were the region’s top performers, with the benchmark Hang Seng Index jumping almost 6% as trading resumed following a holiday. A gauge of Chinese technology stocks listed in the city rallied more than 7%. Thin trading with the onshore market closed for the Golden Week holiday likely amplified price gains. Anticipation has grown that the Federal Reserve may be less aggressive in hiking interest rates following a decline in US job openings. Such expectations had sent global equities surging, with some strategists forecasting a near-term trough in the battered Asia market. 

  “There’s a high probability that a bottom can form in emerging market and Asian equities from current levels as “signs of capitulation are abundant,” Morgan Stanley strategists including Jonathan Garner said in a note. “Valuations are now at or approaching prior cycle trough” after a major bear market in both regions, they added. Traders have plenty to digest this week from US payrolls to China’s Golden Week spending to reassess their wagers. While any weakness in US jobs data may further fuel bets for a slower pace of Fed tightening, Asian markets may continue to face headwinds should China spending disappoint. India markets are closed Wednesday for a national holiday.

  Japanese equities climbed for a third day, as a decline in US job openings further boosted investor hopes for slower Fed rate hikes.  The Topix Index rose 0.3% to 1,912.92 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei advanced 0.5% to 27,120.53. Keyence Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index gain, increasing 2.7%. Out of 2,168 stocks in the index, 1,047 rose and 1,009 fell, while 112 were unchanged. “The rise in the Japanese stocks is largely due to the decline in the US interest rates,” said Ayako Sera, a market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Ltd. “The economy and exchange rate is at the right temperature for stocks at the moment with a lack of strength in the US economy which has pushed the interest rate down.” 

  Australian stocks rose to near a three-week high: the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 1.7% to close at 6,815.70, extending gains into a second day, spurred by the central bank’s smaller-than-expected hike. The rally, which puts the benchmark at the highest since Sept. 15, tracks the best two-day run for US equities in over two years, as investors start to anticipate that the Fed will also slow its aggressive tightening path. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.8% to 11,180.01. The nation’s central bank hiked rates by a half-percentage point for a fifth consecutive meeting, signaling more to come. 

  In rates, Treasuries remained near lows of the day after selling off during European morning, following bigger losses across gilt curve as BOE hike premium is added. S&P 500 futures are down, paring a portion of Tuesday’s 3% advance. Treasury yields are cheaper by 2.5bp to 6bp across the curve, the 10Y yield is up to 3.67%, with losses led by intermediates, knocking 5s30s spread slightly flatter after a strong two-day steepening move; UK yields, higher by as much as 10bp, lead selloff in core European rates.

  In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index bounced from nearly a two-week low in early European trading and the greenback was steady or higher against all of its Group-of-10 peers.

  • The euro retreated by as much as 0.6% to 0.9923 after trading just below parity against the dollar on Tuesday. The German bond curve bear steepened. Italian bonds underperformed euro-area peers, ahead of the ECB’s non-monetary policy meeting, where officials are expected to discuss reducing the central bank’s balance sheet, according to people quoted by Bloomberg. Money markets were also raising ECB tightening wagers
  • The pound fell as much as 0.8% to $1.1380, snapping six days of gains. Gilts fell
  • The New Zealand dollar was steady versus the US dollar; it earlier jumped after the RBNZ increased its official cash rate to 3.5%, by delivering a fifth straight half percentage point hike
  • The yen and the Swiss franc also held up reasonably well amid a demand for havens

  In commodities, WTI trades within Tuesday’s range, falling 0.4% to near $86.20; OPEC+ expected to cut oil output. Spot gold drops roughly $12 to trade near $1,715/oz. Oil demand in top importer China may pick up after Beijing released trade allowances enabling its vast refining industry to ship in more crude and export more fuel. Local refiners and traders have been handed two separate batches of crude-import quotas for the remainder of this year and early 2023, as well as a 15 million ton fuel-export quota, according to JLC. Consensus heading into OPEC is that there will be a sizeable production cut announced, the magnitude of which is unknown but source updates are becoming increasingly skewed towards the top-end of a 0.5-2.0mln range.

  Bitcoin is under modest pressure in very slim ranges just above the USD 20k mark, parameters which are well within yesterday’s/recent sessions levels.

  To the day ahead now, and data releases include the final services and composite PMIs for September, as well as the ISM services index from the US. Otherwise, there’s French industrial production for August, the ADP’s report of private payrolls from the US for September, and the US trade balance for August. Finally from central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Bostic.

  Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.9% to 3,768.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.9% to 399.21
  • MXAP up 1.8% to 144.75
  • MXAPJ up 2.5% to 470.65
  • Nikkei up 0.5% to 27,120.53
  • Topix up 0.3% to 1,912.92
  • Hang Seng Index up 5.9% to 18,087.97
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 3,024.39
  • Sensex up 2.2% to 58,065.47
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.7% to 6,815.68
  • Kospi up 0.3% to 2,215.22
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.95%
  • Euro down 0.5% to $0.9936
  • Brent Futures down 0.2% to $91.63/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.8% to $1,711.81
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.60% to 110.72

  Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, called for boosting common funding for the European Union’s strategy to shift away from Russian fossil fuels and signaled she’s open to discussing a temporary broad price cap on gas
  • The European Union backed a new package of Russia sanctions that includes support for a price cap on oil sales to third countries, according to people familiar with the issue
  • Russian gas supplies to Italy via Austria resumed, bringing some temporary relief to gas prices in Europe
  • France plans to recoup part of windfall profits made by electricity producers to bolster aid to companies and local governments struggling to pay rising bills
  • Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund started taking orders for its inaugural dollar green bond as the oil-rich state looks to burnish its environmental credentials
  • OPEC+ is considering its biggest production cut since 2020, a move Washington is trying to head off with furious diplomatic efforts. The group is set to discuss a cut to its output limits of as much as 2 million barrels a day, using current targets as a starting point
  • The world is careening toward recession and buying old haven reliables Treasuries and the yen still offers the best protection, according to Fidelity International

  A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

  Asia-Pacific stocks traded higher across the board as the region sustained the momentum from Wall St where the major indices extended their rally after soft data releases stoked hopes of a Fed pivot. ASX 200 continued to benefit following RBA’s recent rate hike slowdown with tech, consumer discretionary and financials leading the advances, while M&A prospects added to the optimism with Link Administration Holdings boosted after it received further proposals from Dye & Durham to acquire some of its businesses. Nikkei 225 reclaimed the 27k level although gains were capped by the lack of fresh catalysts and amid lingering geopolitical tensions after the US, Japan and South Korea responded to North Korea’s recent missile launch with military drills and even the test firing of four surface-to-surface missiles by the US and South Korea. Hang Seng outperformed as it played catch up to yesterday’s advances on return from its holiday closure and with HSBC among the biggest gainers as it explores a multibillion-dollar sale of its Canadian business.

  Top Asian News

  • RBNZ hiked the OCR by 50bps to 3.50%, as expected. RBNZ stated that the Committee agreed it is appropriate to continue to tighten policy and members agreed that monetary conditions needed to continue to tighten until inflation was back in target range. RBNZ also stated that core consumer inflation is too high and labour resources are scarce, while they considered whether to increase the OCR by 50bps or 75bps and some members highlighted that a larger increase in the OCR now would reduce the likelihood of a higher peak in the OCR being required.
  • Mizuho to Acquire About 20% of Rakuten Securities: Nikkei
  • Malaysia Palm Oil Stockpiles May Surge to Largest in Three Years
  • Morgan Stanley Says Bottom Near for Emerging-Market Equities
  • Gold Falls After Two-Day Surge With Fed Rate Stance in Focus
  • SK E&S Removes LNG Claim Amid Greenwashing Crackdown

  European bourses are under pressure following the strong gains seen in Tuesday’s session with fresh newsflow fairly limited heading into key US data, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.1%. In Europe, sectors are lower across the board with underperformance in Autos, Telecoms and Banking names. Stateside, ahead of those metrics which will be eyed for further clues around a ‘pivot’, futures are under similar pressure though magnitudes are a touch more contained, ES -0.9%. TSMC (2330 TW) has reportedly begun negotiating prices with its suppliers of equipment and materials for 2023, considering price reductions of at least 10%, according to sources via DigiTimes.

  Top European News

  • Votes to implement the UK government’s “mini-budget” will not take place until next spring in an attempt to put off potential rebellions until 2023, according to the understanding of the Telegraph.
  • EU ambassadors have now approved all details of the Russian sanctions package and a so-called written procedure launched that will finish at 09:00BST; publication will be in the EU official journal some time tomorrow, according to Radio Free Europe.
  • Russia says it does not intend to use additional budget revenues to purchase FX or gold, via Reuters.
  • U.K. Sept. Composite PMI 49.1 vs Flash Reading 48.4
  • European Gas Slides as Russia Resumes Flow to Italy Via Austria
  • EU Chief Urges Funds for Energy Pivot, Floats Gas Price Cap
  • Even Deutsche Bank Sees Paris as a Rising Hub for Traders
  • Gold Falls After Two-Day Surge With Fed Rate Stance in Focus

  FX

  • USD has benefited from a rebound in yields and perhaps on phycological/technical grounds, DXY at a 110.84 high.
  • Action which has come to the modest detriment of peers across the board, with GBP lagging into a speech from PM Truss after brief PMI-induced upside.
  • EUR/USD got within touch of parity, but failed to convincingly test the mark and has since faded back to 0.99.
  • NZD the relative outperformer after the RBNZ stuck with consensus for a 75bp hike in contrast to the RBA’s slower approach earlier in the week.

  Fixed Income

  • Core debt is pressured across the board with Gilts lagging despite upside from a well-received DMO outing as the benchmark struggles to get a foothold above 98.00.
  • Action which has lifted yields across the board, brining the UK 10yr back in reach of 4.0% while the US curve is a touch more mixed.
  • On this, USTs are slightly more contained than peers with downside of around 20 ticks as participants await key data readings.

  Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks are currently dictated by broader risk and are modestly softer as such, though attention will turn to the OPEC gathering shortly.
  • As it stands, consensus heading into it is that there will be a sizeable production cut announced, the magnitude of which is unknown but source updates are becoming increasingly skewed towards the top-end of a 0.5-2.0mln range.
  • US Private Inventory (bbls): Crude -1.8mln (exp. +2.1mln), Cushing +0.9mln, Distillates -4.0mln (exp. -1.4mln), Gasoline -3.5mln (exp. -1.3mln)
  • US is reportedly pushing OPEC+ nations not to proceed with an output cut and is arguing to OPEC+ that economic fundamentals do not support an output cut, according to a source familiar with the matter cited by Reuters.
  • UN official may visit Moscow, Russia next week to discuss a grain deal, via Ria citing the Russian foreign ministry.
  • Spot gold is once again moving at the whim of the USD which has continued to firm throughout the morning and thus the yellow metal has been pushed back to the USD 1710/oz mark and away from the 50-DMA

  US Event Calendar

  • 7am: U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications -14.2%, prior -3.7%
  • 8:15am: U.S. ADP Employment Change, Sept., est. 200k, prior 132k
  • 8:30am: U.S. Trade Balance, Aug., est. -$67.7b, prior -$70.7b
  • 9:45am: U.S. S&P Global US Services PMI, Sept. F, est. 49.2, prior 49.2
  • 9:45am: U.S. S&P Global US Composite PMI, Sept. F, est. 49.3, prior 49.3
  • 10am: U.S. ISM Services Index, Sept., est. 56.0, prior 56.9

  Central Banks

  • 9:15am: Fed’s Kashkari Takes Part in Moderated Q&A
  • 4pm: Fed’s Bostic Discusses Inflation

  DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

  Another reminder that we’ve recently published our long-term asset study. Yesterday, we updated some of the bond and risk parity charts in the presentation version to account for month-end prices. You can find the link to that in the executive summary of the main report, which you can find here.

  One more plug, we’re hosting a call on the US mid-terms next Tuesday with perspectives from our public affairs group, US economics, and markets. This event will quickly come at us over the coming weeks. Register here.

  The rip-roaring start to Q4 has continued over the last 24 hours, with a significant cross-asset rally occurring thanks to speculation that central banks could soon ease up on their campaign of rate hikes. This positive mood music was evident from the start of the session, having had a significant boost from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision, which we covered yesterday, to only hike by 25bps rather than the 50bps expected. We’ll have to see if that proves to be the first in a trend, but investor risk appetite showed no sign of abating as the day went on. Australia probably shouldn’t be a template for the US or Europe but the move perfectly fitted and encouraged the current narrative. Indeed, the rally gained further steam after US data showed an unexpectedly large decline in job openings, thus raising additional hopes that inflationary pressures could be easing.

  Against that backdrop, there were substantial gains for equities, credit, bonds and commodities, with the S&P 500’s gains now at +5.73% over the last two trading sessions, which is the first time that’s happened since April 2020.

  Although the Fed and other central banks have done little to validate this idea we’ll get a dovish pivot, it’s clear that markets are pre-empting the possibility again, in a similar manner to what happened in July. This is mostly manifesting itself in markets moving to take out the rate hikes they’d previously been expecting for next year. For instance, the rate priced in by Fed funds futures for December 2023 came down another -3.8bps yesterday to 4.10%, moving even further away from its 4.50% peak just over a week ago. That drove real 10yr Treasury yields -5.2bps lower as additional tightening got priced out, but that decline was more or less offset by the subsequent increase in breakevens that left nominal 10yr yields just -0.6bps lower. They are flat in Asia.

  We’ll have to see if this narrative shift survives Friday’s payroll data and next week’s CPI print, but in the meantime the JOLTS report for August helped fuel the idea that the labour market is cooling off. In particular, the number of job openings fell to 10.053m (vs. 11.088m expected), which is their lowest level since July 2021, and the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers fell back to 1.67, which is the lowest since November 2021. For reference though the pre-covid levels for these two were around 7.2m and 1.2 respectively so the labour market is still tight but getting less so. The hope is that if these trends continue, that would mean that it might be possible to cool off the labour market with a fall in job openings, but without a simultaneous rise in unemployment.

  Over in Europe nominal sovereign bond yields had a more sustained decline, with those on 10yr bunds (-4.6bps), OATs (-5.1bps) and BTPs (-6.3bps) all moving lower on the day. Those moves were supported by a fresh decline in European natural gas prices, with futures down by -4.69% yesterday to hit their lowest level since late July. That followed weather forecasts suggesting that temperatures are set to be higher than normal over the next couple of weeks in Europe, which would help reduce demand for gas and lower the risk of shortages occurring. In addition, one official who did openly float the idea of a new phase of rate hikes was Bank of France Governor Villeroy. He said that the ECB should get to neutral “without hesitation”, but beyond that he said “We could start then a second part of the journey, a more flexible and possibly slower one”. On the other hand, President Lagarde didn’t explicitly mention any easing yesterday, saying that inflation was “undesirably high” and that it was difficult to tell if it was at its peak.

  With all said and done, equities soared on both sides of the Atlantic, with the S&P 500 (+3.06%) surging even more than it did on Monday. The advance was incredibly broad-based, and the 497 companies that moved higher in the index was actually the highest number so far in 2022. The more cyclical sectors did particularly well, including tech as the NASDAQ (+3.34%) saw even larger advances. Elsewhere in the tech space, news that Elon Musk was planning to finally move ahead with his much discussed purchase of Twitter saw the stock advance +22.24%, after having traded halted intraday. Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+3.12%), the DAX (+3.78%) and the CAC 40 (+4.24%) all saw their strongest daily performances since March.

  Here in the UK, there were further developments on the policy side, as Chancellor Kwarteng reiterated that the government would still be releasing their medium-term fiscal plan on November 23, contrary to reports from multiple outlets that it was set to be brought forward. That came as sterling strengthened for a 6th day running, gaining another +1.35% against the dollar to move back above $1.14 again, which also marked its longest run of consecutive gains in nearly 18 months. There were some interesting movements in gilts too. The 10yr yield came down by -8.6bps, but those on longer maturities saw sharp rises after the BoE said that they didn’t buy any of the gilts tendered on Tuesday as part of its emergency intervention, and yields on 30yr gilts (+14.9bps) closed back above 4% for the first time since the intervention began. Keep an eye out for any further developments today, as Prime Minister Truss will be delivering her speech to the Conservative Party conference.

  Overnight in Asia, major indices are higher. The Nikkei (+0.41%), KOSPI (+0.20%) and Hang Seng (+5.38%) are notching gains as Chinese markets remain closed for holidays. Hong Kong markets are catching up after Tuesday’s holiday. Futures are showing some pullback in the US (S&P 500 -0.5%) and Europe (Stoxx 50 -0.4%) though.

  There wasn’t much other data of note yesterday, with the US factory orders for August remaining unchanged, in line with expectations. Otherwise, Euro Area PPI hit a record high of +43.3% in August on a year-on-year basis, just above the +43.2% reading expected.

  To the day ahead now, and data releases include the final services and composite PMIs for September, as well as the ISM services index from the US. Otherwise, there’s French industrial production for August, the ADP’s report of private payrolls from the US for September, and the US trade balance for August. Finally from central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Bostic.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 08:07

• OPEC+ Meeting Preview: Output Cut Between 0.5 And 2.0 Million bpd
  OPEC+ Meeting Preview: Output Cut Between 0.5 And 2.0 Million bpd

  Submitted by Newsquawk

  OPEC+ Preview

  • OPEC+ is likely to agree to cut oil, output, with expectations ranging from 0.5-2.0mln BPD; more recent expectations tilt towards the top end of the range.
  • The JMMC is set to meet at 13:00BST/08:00EDT, with the OPEC+ ministerial meeting slated for around 13: 30BST/08:30EDT. A press conference is then expected to take place (time TBC).
  • Expectations thus far point to a smooth meeting.

  EXPECTATIONS:

  OPEC+ is likely to agree on output cuts, with expectations ranging from 0.5-2.0mln BPD, as per several source reports, with the more recent reports tilting towards the top end of the range. The most recent reporting points towards a 2mln figure.

  • Bloomberg and Reuters reported that OPEC+ is considering a cut to targets ofReuters as much as 2mln BPD.
  • Saudi Arabia, Russia and other producers are set to announce deep cuts at the OPEC+ meeting on Wednesday, according to the FT citing sources, who are reportedly pushing for cuts of 1-2mln BPD or more – these could be phased in over several months
  • Reuters and Bloomberg sources over the weekend suggested cuts could exceed 1mln BPD, and Saudi Arabia may also opt for an additional voluntary cut.
  • Reuters then cited sources saying that OPEC+ was discussing a potential oil output cut in excess of 1mln BPD, excluding any voluntary cuts.
  • Energy Intelligence said talks among delegates thus far indicated a cut of 1.5mln or more was under consideration, though it is unclear if this would be phased in.
  • It’s also worth being aware of an OPEC source cited by Reuters who suggested that the likely figure would be closer to 500k BPD. Sources via Reuters last week suggested Russia was likely to propose a reduction of around 1mln BPD. Talks are expected to continue ahead of the meeting.

  SCHEDULE:

  OPEC+ will be meeting in person in Vienna for the first time since March 2020. The Joint Technical Committee (JTC) meeting was scrapped for this month.

  • The JMMC is set to meet at 13:00BST/08:00EDT.
  • The OPEC+ ministerial meeting slated for around 13:30BST/08:30EDT.
  • A press conference is then expected to take place afterwards (time TBD).
  • Expectations thus far point to a smooth meeting, according to Energy Intelligence

  FACTORS :

  PRICES: Crude prices have been volatile and on a downward trajectory throughout the second half of the year due to demand woes emanating from deeper recession fears – with Brent prices down almost USD 15/bbl from the high seen at the prior meeting.

  • According to FT an report in early September, the Saudi Energy Minister was under pressure from the Saudi Crown Prince to keep prices near to USD 100/bbl, whilst Reuters suggested Saudi and Russia both saw USD 100/bbl as a fair price.
  • “Saudi Arabia is keen to lower output both to prop up prices and so it can keep some production capacity in reserve. The kingdom fears that Russian output could fall sharply later this year when western sanctions against its oil exports tighten”, according to the FT citing people brief on Saudi’s thinking.
  • Although, when questioned by Energy Intelligence, the Saudi Energy Minister said “OPEC+, as is well known,Energy Intelligence does not target prices or prices ranges. Its aim is to support market stability and supply and demand balance”.
  • From a geopolitical standpoint, significant cuts to output targets are not likely to sit well with Washington, which has been attempting to pressure Saudi Arabia to raise oil production levels in a bid to push down prices and tame energy inflation. On this front, the NOPEC bill (No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels) may resurface in wake of the meeting.
  • The US is reportedly pushing OPEC+ nations not to proceed with an output cut and is arguing that economic fundamentals do not support an output cut, according to a Reuters source.

  DEMAND: The fear of recession against the backdrop of rising interest rates from major economies has provided a double whammy to the demand side of the equation.

  • The September Oil Market Report (OMR) maintained its 2022 and 2023 forecasts, with a “recently observed trend for additional oil demand growth due to fuel switching in power generation.”
  • That being said, since then the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) metrics out of Europe painted a bleaker growth picture for the continent – “A eurozone recession is on the cards as companies report worsening business conditions and intensifying price pressures linked to soaring energy costs”, the release said.
  • In China, the “zero COVID” policy remains a headwind to demand, with holidaymakers this week bracing for more disruptions during the Golden Week holiday as the Chinese government attempts to contain COVID cases ahead of the Communist Party National Congress mid-October.

  SUPPLY: Limited spare capacity has been an ongoing burden for the group of oil producers.

  • According to an internal document cited by Reuters, OPEC+ fell short of its target by 3.58mln BPD in August having missed the target by 2.89mln BPD in July. As a reminder, the IEA estimates Saudi has a short-order capacity (reachable in less than 90 days) of around 1.2mln BPD, with the longer-term capacity predicted to be nearer to 2.1mln BPD. The argument OPEC watchers have been flagging is the state of confidence within the group (to stabilise the oil market) if they have no spare capacity, with oil traders warning of a potential upward spiral in oil prices if this “worst case” scenario were to occur. Cutting output targets would water down the issue of over-compliance. It’s also worth distinguishing between target cuts and actual barrels coming off the market (likely to be lower than proposed cuts given the over-compliance).
  • Elsewhere, FT sources suggested that Saudi Arabia was concerned that “Russian output could fall sharply late this year when western sanctions against its oil exports tighten”.
  • Furthermore, Iranian barrels do not look set to return to international markets just yet as nuclear deal talks remain at a standstill; neither Tehran or Washington are willing to provide enough concessions to move forward.
  • On the other side, US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) sales could be utilised to offset some effects of OPEC+ production cuts, although the SPR has seen continuous drains with levels reported to be down to those seen in 1984.

  HOUSE VIEWS:

  • JP Morgan suggested in recent days a cut of around 1mln BPD was on the cards and could help arrest the price decline.
  • UBS said that only a production cut by OPEC+ can break the negative momentum within the oil market in the short-term, and to provide a stronger floor in oil prices, Saudi would need to make extra voluntary cuts.
  • RBC sees a ‘significant chance’ of substantial OPEC+ supply cut and said OPEC+ may cut by 500k-1mln BPD at the October 5th meeting.
  • Goldman Sachs said an OPEC+ supply cut would reinforce its bullish oil price view, and would help to limit downside to prices in the scenario of disappointing economic growth.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 07:29

• European Gas Demand Set For Record-Breaking Decline In 2022
  European Gas Demand Set For Record-Breaking Decline In 2022

  By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

  Soaring natural gas prices, demand destruction in the industrial sector, and energy-saving measures are set to reduce gas consumption in Europe’s developed economies by 10% this year, the biggest drop in European demand in history, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its quarterly Gas Market Report on Monday.

  

  The forecast of a 10% decline in natural gas demand in OECD Europe reflects the expectation of higher gas prices and the EU’s ambition to reduce gas consumption by 15% between August 2022 and March 2023 compared to its five-year average.

  “Assuming average weather conditions, gas demand in the residential and commercial sectors is expected to remain below 2021 levels,” the IEA said in its report.

  Due to sky-high high prices and a very tight gas market, natural gas usage in the power generating sector in Europe is forecast to drop by nearly 3% this year. Industrial gas demand is expected to plunge by as much as 20%, the IEA said.

  Energy-intensive industries in Europe, including aluminum, copper, and zinc smelters and steel makers, have already warned EU officials that they face an existential threat from surging power and gas prices. 

  After a record slump in gas demand this year, Europe faces another year of gas consumption contraction in 2023, when OECD Europe’s demand is forecast to decline by 4% amid high prices, according to estimates from the IEA.

  The agency also noted that “Further potential disruption to the supply of Russian gas provides additional downside risk to this outlook.”

  Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s Director of Energy Markets and Security, commented on the report:

  “The outlook for gas markets remains clouded, not least because of Russia’s reckless and unpredictable conduct, which has shattered its reputation as a reliable supplier. But all the signs point to markets remaining very tight well into 2023.”

  The IEA’s Executive Director Fatih Birol said last week that the gas market could be even tighter next year compared to already tight LNG markets in 2022.   

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 07:20

• New Hedge Fund Formation Falls To Lowest Since 2008
  New Hedge Fund Formation Falls To Lowest Since 2008

  Persistent and mounting volatility in stocks, currencies, government bonds, credit, cryptos, and just about everything has intensified fears among a generation of money managers entirely dependent on a “Fed put.” Though no such pivot has yet come into play (yet) this year as the Federal Reserve is hellbent on tightening financial conditions to combat the highest inflation in forty years.

  When the Fed injects liquidity into capital markets, everyone is considered a genius, but when conditions tighten, you’ll “find out who’s been swimming naked,” as Warren Buffet once said two decades ago. And for many unseasoned money managers, which there is a lot, who haven’t traded in the mid-70s, late 80s, Dot Com bust, and GFC, it’s been a oneway ticket up for them as they only know one trading strategy: ‘buy the dip.’ 

  Perhaps the Fed-induced market turmoil this year, which has left every dip buyer deeply underwater, could be one of the reasons why new hedge fund launches in the second quarter were at the lowest levels since the 2008 GFC. 

  Data from Hedge Fund Research showed new hedge fund formation slid to only 80 between April and June, down significantly from 185 in the first quarter of the year. The last time hedge fund formations were this low was 56 in the fourth quarter of 2008. 

  During the quarter, there were 156 hedge fund liquidations, a 24% increase over the prior quarter. The total number of hedge funds declined to 9,237 in the second quarter from 9,313 in the first. 

  It was May when we told readers that 2022 Has Been The Worst Year Ever For Hedge Funds. Melvin Capital was one of the most closely followed hedge fund closures during the quarter. 

  HFR data shows market turmoil in the year’s first half resulted in $7.7 billion in net outflows across the hedge fund industry. Even with firms going bust and firm formations at decade lows, hedge funds managed to outperform the broad equity indexes. 

  Through August, the HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index – a global index of the world’s largest hedge funds – fell about 3%, compared with a 17% plunge in the S&P500 over the same period. 

  

  Underperformance, hedge fund closures, and lack of new firm formation have occurred in a Fed-induced down cycle for markets. Former Fed Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said earlier this year that money managers must remove their “beer goggles” after years of ZIRP and QE because ‘Powell isn’t coming to a rescue.’ 

  “The Fed has created this dependency and there’s an entire generation of money-managers who weren’t around in ’74, ’87, the end of the ’90s, and even 2007-2009.. and have only seen a one-way street… of course they’re nervous.” 

  “The question is – do you want to feed that hunger? Keep applying that opioid of cheap and abundant money?” Fisher told CNBC in January. 

  Money managers can only hope for one thing: A Fed pivot to revive markets. 

  This is exactly what the Powell Fed has been looking for. Here is Powell on Sept. 22:

  “Job openings could come down significantly—and they need to—without as much of a an increase in unemployment as has happened in earlier historical episodes.”

  — Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) October 4, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  … that could be coming soon. If not, the hedge fund industry will shrink some more. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 06:55

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• US-China Space Wars & Moon-Mining
  US-China Space Wars & Moon-Mining

  Authored by Antonio Graceffo via The Epoch Times,

  The space race between the United States and China is not like the movies but is extremely important.

  “You could have a Chinese company on the moon in the 2030s claiming territory with a resource on it in the same way the Chinese have claimed the entire South China Sea,” warned Malcolm Davis, a space policy researcher at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, in a report released on May 17.

  In “Star Wars,” “Star Trek,” “Buck Rogers,” “Flash Gordon,” and other science-fiction movies, space weapons are laser cannons, ion guns, blasters, and phasers that shoot impressive rays of light energy and blow up whatever they hit.

  However, the reality of space wars is “low-moving rendezvous robot satellites, ground-based electronic jammers, and cyber weapons and lasers designed to disable satellites without producing space debris,” according to a January 2022 report by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.

  Unlike the movies, much of the threat in space will come from the ground through terrestrial control centers issuing orders to space-based assets. It will probably not entail battles between government spacecraft, but utility hardware, owned and operated by private companies with peaceful missions. A debris-clearing satellite, the property of a company in Palo Alto or Shenzhen, might be commanded from Earth to damage, defuel, or disrupt the trajectory or operation of a satellite from another country. Rather than firing an ion cannon, a Chinese space asset could disable a U.S. or Japanese satellite, making it difficult for allied militaries on Earth to navigate or fire effectively. And the defense against these attacks would be to use “bodyguard” satellites to push the offenders away gently.

  

  The International Space Station in an undated handout. (Nasa/PA)

  On May 30, two NASA astronauts were launched into space under the agency’s Commercial Crew Program, marking the return to a time when the United States transported its people into space without depending on foreign countries like Russia. U.S. private firms can now carry out launches to low-Earth orbits at competitive prices. Consequently, in addition to no longer being dependent on foreign countries for space assistance, NASA can now focus on its longer-term goal of launching Americans into deeper space.

  In 2020, China’s Chang’e-5 moon mission discovered a new variant mineral now called Changesite-(Y). The crystal containing helium-3 could prove incredibly valuable as it may offer a new energy source. Scientists believe that the tiny crystals may be able to power nuclear reactors and are abundant on the moon. To put the power of helium-3 in perspective, about three tablespoons of helium-3 could replace 5,000 tons of coal.

  Consequently, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) announced plans for three more moon missions over the next 10 years and the construction of a permanent lunar base.

  The Chinese space agency frequently captures headlines heralding China’s achievements in space. Apart from Chang’e-5 landing on the moon, China managed to land a rover called Zhurong on Mars in 2021. However, China is slow in the space race. The United States sent its first uncrewed mission to the moon in 1962, followed by a human-crewed mission in 1969. Chinese unmanned craft reached Mars in 2020, a feat NASA had achieved with Mariner 4 in 1964, while the first U.S. craft to land on Mars was Viking 1 in 1975. Currently, with 2,944 satellites, the United States has nearly six times as many satellites orbiting the Earth as China with 499.

  

  The Yutu-2 moon rover, taken by the Chang’e-4 lunar probe on the far side of the moon, on Jan. 11, 2019. China will seek to establish an international lunar base one day, possibly using 3D printing technology to build facilities, the Chinese space agency said on Jan. 14, 2019, weeks after landing the rover on the moon’s far side. (China National Space Administration/AFP via Getty Images)

  Many of the media stories released by the CCP tout grand plans for Chinese landers, space launchers, a moon base, and manned missions to the moon and Mars. So far, these are just aspirations for the CCP. Aside from the fact that the United States will be returning to the moon with a manned mission in 2024 or 2025 through the Artemis program, the United States intends to have a continual presence on the moon by 2028.

  Additionally, the United States has blocked China’s participation in the International Space Station. A 2011 U.S. law also prohibits NASA from partnering with China. The United States wants to establish a NATO-like organization to regulate the use of space and space assets. At the same time, U.S. officials have outlined the Artemis Accord, an expansion of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty. So far, neither Russia nor China have been willing to sign the accord, although Japan, South Korea, Australia, the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, and several other nations have.

  Even though the United States is far ahead on some scorecards, China already possesses the capacity to wage a space war. Satellites in space could be used to surveil military hardware on the ground, at sea, or even detect submarines in the ocean. Space assets could also help Beijing coordinate missile attacks on Earth.

  

  Chinese militarization of space is consistent with the CCP’s 2019 white paper on the expanding space role of the People’s Liberation Army. Apart from the revenue that the CCP could earn from mining the moon, one of the primary uses of Chinese space weapons could be to aid China’s navy in taking control of the South China Sea or invading Taiwan.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 00:05

• Lawyer For Saudi Crown Prince Claims Sovereign Immunity In Khashoggi Suit
  Lawyer For Saudi Crown Prince Claims Sovereign Immunity In Khashoggi Suit

  Last week, Saudi King Salman designated his son, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, as the kingdom’s prime minister. Now, his lawyer is using that move to ask a federal U.S. judge to dismiss a civil suit accusing “MBS” of ordering the murder of Washington post columnist and gadfly Jamal Khashoggi. 

  The naming of MBS as prime minister “leaves no doubt that the Crown Prince is entitled to status-based immunity,” asserted attorney Michael Kellogg in a filing in the District of Columbia. Therefore, the judge “should dismiss Plaintiffs’ claims against the Crown Prince for lack of subject-matter jurisdiction.”

  Though MBS is the de facto ruler of the kingdom, his previous claims of sovereign immunity were considered weak at best, given he was “only” the crown prince. “Head of state immunity is an absolute, status-based immunity that typically extends to sitting heads of state, heads of government, and foreign ministers,” University of California, Davis law professor William S. Dodge explained at Just Security.  

  The plaintiffs’ attorneys are expected to argue that the prime minister “promotion” was purely meant to facilitate MBS’s evasion of justice. “In announcing the change – an exception to Saudi law that calls for the king to also serve as prime minister – it is stated that King Salman will still act as prime minister in meetings in which he is present,” reports The Guardian. 

  On Friday, the White House asked the judge for a 45-day postponement of the court’s deadline for President Biden to offer his opinion over whether MBS merits sovereign immunity. The request cited the crown prince’s new title as a reason for needing more time.

  This would be the second delay granted by the court. The original deadline was Aug. 1 — just two weeks after Biden visited Saudi Arabia and infamously fist-bumped MBS, obliterating his campaign promise to treat the kingdom as a “pariah” state. 

  When asked in a 2019 debate if he would “punish” senior Saudi leaders for Khashoggi’s murder, Biden replied: 

  “Yes….Khashoggi was in fact murdered and dismembered, and I believe on the order of the crown prince. And I would make it very clear we were not going to in fact sell more weapons to them. We were going to in fact make them pay the price, and make them in fact the pariah that they are. There’s very little social redeeming value…in the present government in Saudi Arabia.”

  

  Even if the Biden administration is content to see MBS face civil suit scrutiny, the U.S. government may have its own interest in killing the lawsuit: If the case proceeds to discovery, plaintiff attorneys will be pressing the U.S. government to release its own sensitive files on the murder.

  MBS stands accused of ordering Khashoggi’s October 2018 murder at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. A Washington, DC resident and writer for the Washington Post, Khashoggi was an outspoken critic of the crown prince and was launching an organization called Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN). DAWN is a plaintiff in the civil suit, along with Hatice Cengiz, Khashoggi’s fiancée at the time of his killing. 

  MBS has acknowledged the Saudi government’s responsibility for the murder, but denies any personal involvement in it. A CIA assessment concluded with “medium to high confidence” that MBS “personally targeted Khashoggi.”

  Noting the killers were from MBS’ top security units, the CIA said, “We assess it is highly unlikely this team of operators…carried out the operation without Muhammed bin Salman’s authorization.”

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 23:45

• Shellenberger: Media Is Lying About Climate & Hurricanes
  Shellenberger: Media Is Lying About Climate & Hurricanes

  Authored by Michael Shellenberger via Substack,

  Over the last several weeks, many mainstream news media outlets have claimed that hurricanes are becoming more expensive, more frequent, and more intense because of climate change.

  • The Financial Times reported that “hurricane frequency is on the rise.”

  • The New York Times claimed, “strong storms are becoming more common in the Atlantic Ocean.”

  • The Washington Post said, “climate change is rapidly fueling super hurricanes.”

  • ABC News declared, “Here’s how climate change intensifies hurricanes.”

  • Both the FT and N.Y. Times showed graphs purporting to show rising hurricane frequency using data from the U.S. government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

  All of those claims are false.

  

  The increasing cost of hurricane damage can be explained entirely by more people and more property in harm’s way. Consider how much more developed Miami Beach is today compared to a century ago. Once you adjust for rising wealth, there is no trend of increasing damage.

  

  Claims that hurricanes are becoming more frequent are similarly wrong. “After adjusting for a likely under-count of hurricanes in the pre-satellite era,” writes NOAA, “there is essentially no long-term trend in hurricane counts. The evidence for an upward trend is even weaker if we look at U.S. landfalling hurricanes, which even show a slight negative trend beginning from 1900 or from the late 1800s.” What’s more, NOAA expects a 25% decline in hurricane frequency in the future.

  What about intensity? Same story. Explains NOAA, “after adjusting for changes in observing capabilities (limited ship observations) in the pre-satellite era, there is no significant long-term trend (since the 1880s) in the proportion of hurricanes that become major hurricanes.“ Bottom line? “We conclude that the data do not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced century-scale increase in:  frequency of tropical storms, hurricanes, or major hurricanes, or in the proportion of hurricanes that become major.

  

  NOAA indeed predicts a 5% increase in hurricane intensity by 2100, but no increase in intensity is today detectable. And the best-available science forecasts that the slight increase in overall hurricane intensity in the future won’t be because there are more intense hurricanes but rather because hurricanes overall will decline more than intense hurricanes (category 4 and 5). As a result, there will be a greater proportion of category 4 and 5 hurricanes than categories 1, 2, and 3.

  In other words, the relative intensity of hurricanes will rise, even as the total number of hurricanes — and the total number of intense hurricanes — decline.

  Why are the media spreading obviously inaccurate information, and not reporting the basic facts? Are journalists simply ignorant? Or is something else going on?

  Evidence Of Deliberate Deception

  Is it possible journalists are just ignorant of current climate science? Perhaps some are. But mainstream news media outlets have been covering climate change and hurricanes for the last 20 years. And the information on hurricane costs, frequency, or intensity is hardly hidden away. It’s been summarized in the IPCC reports, most recently in 2021. And NOAA even boldfaces its key conclusions.

  

  The New York Times graph (left) inappropriately cherry-picks data from the post-1980 period while the Financial Times graph (right) misrepresents improved hurricane detection as rising hurricane frequency.

  Consider four of the main ways the media mislead the public about climate change and hurricanes. They:

  1. Misrepresent data showing improved observations of hurricanes (thanks in large measure to satellites and other hurricane detection technologies) as evidence of more frequent hurricanes;

  2. Misrepresent hypotheses (e.g., that some hurricanes may become more intense by 2100) as facts in the present without mentioning that median projections suggest a decrease in all categories of storms;

  3. Cherry-pick data to present trends in a relatively recent period since the 1980s and ignore the fact that there is much longer-term data available;

  4. Confuse increasing damage with increasing incidence or intensity, even as there is a strong understanding that what and where we build explains all escalating disaster damage.

  Is it possible that the Financial Times reporter Aime Williams and her editors pulled the data from the NOAA website to make their graph, and mistakenly claimed that it shows more frequent hurricanes, but didn’t happen to read the website and its explicit warning that “After adjusting for a likely under-count of hurricanes in the pre-satellite era, there is essentially no long-term trend in hurricane counts”?

  If that is indeed what occurred, then Williams and FT are guilty of journalistic malpractice of the highest order. But there is little reason to think that’s what happened. NOAA makes its warning relatively early on its web page and repeats it several times. And FT, like everyone else, has been covering this issue for decades not years.

  I asked Williams in an email why she reported that hurricanes were increasing in frequency and intensity, against the best available science, and she did not respond. Whatever the case, FT should issue a retraction or a correction.

  Washington Post reporters Scott Dance and Kasha Patel claim that “storms rated Category 4 or stronger… have increased in number in recent decades” and their headline reads, “climate change is rapidly fueling super hurricanes.”

  Those claims are, respectively, misleading and wrong. According to NOAA, 15 Category 4 or stronger hurricanes made landfall in Florida since 1919, with 10 of them occurring before 1960 (over 42 years) and 5 of them since (over 62 years).

  There is evidence that Dance and Patel knew they were being misleading. Consider the following sentence from their article: “One comparable period of hurricane activity came from 1945 to 1950, when five Category 4 hurricanes hit Florida in six years, making [hurricane researcher Philip] Klotzbach reluctant to call the series of intense storms since 2017 unprecedented.”

  The word “reluctant” softens the meaning. “Refuses” would be a more accurate word. And he refuses to call the storms unprecedented because, as Dance and Patel acknowledge, they aren’t.

  It’s worth pausing on this point for a moment. Klotzbach clearly explained the data to Dance and Patel. They clearly understood it. And yet they softened and buried Kotzbach’s debunking of their headline claim as though it were a quibble.

  I emailed Dance and Patel and asked about their reporting decisions, and a Washington Post spokesperson responded with an email that said, “We stand by our reporting on the unusually high number of major hurricanes to make landfall along the U.S. in recent years and which experience rapid intensification, sometimes shortly before landfall. Studies referenced in the article, including analysis by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, as well as work by NOAA have stated the increase in rapid intensification events over the past three to four decades likely cannot be explained by natural variability alone.”

  But what she said doesn’t make sense, and contradicts the best-available science. Four decades ago, the 1980s, was a period of historic lows. And the scientific consensus is that natural variability does, in fact, explain the post-1980 increase. “After homogenization,” wrote a team of scientists last year, “increases in basin-wide hurricane and major hurricane activity since the 1970s are not part of a century-scale increase, but a recovery from a deep minimum in the 1960s–1980s. We suggest internal (e.g., Atlantic multidecadal) climate variability and aerosol-induced mid-to-late-20th century major hurricane frequency reductions have probably masked century-scale greenhouse-gas warming contributions to North Atlantic major hurricane frequency.” [emphasis added]

  Whether it is a case of poor journalism or deliberate deception, The Washington Post should issue a retraction or correction.

  What about the article in The New York Times, by-lined by David Leonhardt, which claims that “strong storms are becoming more common in the Atlantic Ocean”? What about its graph, which shows a trend of rising category 4 and 5 storms starting in 1980?

  The 1970s and 1980s are well-understood to be the low point in hurricane activity in the 20th Century. In a paper titled “Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century,” which Nature Communications published last year, scientists wrote, “the inactive period in the late 20th century may have been the most inactive period in recent centuries.” So, of course, a time series starting in 1980 will show increased activity.

  It is an obviously deliberate and egregiously unprofessional choice.

  I have known David for over a decade and know that he can be a careful reporter when he chooses to be. He did some of the most honest reporting for The New York Times on Covid. He won Pulitzers in 2010 and 2011. I emailed David to ask what made him decide to cherry-pick those dates; I have not heard back. Whatever the case, The New York Times should retract or correct the article.

  It is notable that journalists twist themselves into pretzels to create the impression that hurricanes are increasing in frequency and intensity without ever acknowledging the data showing that they are not. A simple graph of U.S. landfalls shows that. And yet no major media outlet has ever, to my knowledge, published it.

  Consider my on-line interaction with Ginger Zee, chief meteorologist and managing editor of the climate unit of ABC News. In a tweet I wrote, “I have not seen a single mainstream news media outlet mention any of this,” in reference to the NOAA forecast of declining frequency and increasing intensity of hurricanes.

  Responded Zee, “We have! Global cyclone frequency down, studies show you need the difference in cold and warm as you go up, & all warming, so less cyclone starts(cyclone is general term for hurricane/typhoon), HOWEVER, once they do start, better chance of rapidly intensifying w/ warmer ocean water.”

  I responded, “Ginger, how do you justify the ABC headline given NOAA’s explicit statement that “data at this stage do not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced century-scale increase in… the proportion of hurricanes that become major hurricanes”?”

  She responded, “That article is Referencing this Noaa study: https://gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/… , @KentonGewecke & @RobMarciano covered this weekend on GMA…We are also all aware of confidence in relationship to CC.”

  I replied, “Thanks, Ginger, but that doesn’t answer my question. Do you think the ABC headline, which implies hurricanes *are* intensifying, is accurate, given NOAA’s insistence that such claims can’t be made?”

  She didn’t respond. However, Zee made clear that she and her colleagues Kenton Gewecke and Rob Marciano were aware of the NOAA web page that warns that there is no evidence of increasing hurricane frequency or intensity.

  How she responded after that seemed indicative of much of the media coverage, which is to pivot away from the cold hard facts and towards presenting speculation and hypothesis as certain. And indeed, when you read through media coverage of climate change, you often find reporters emphasizing that they can’t entirely attribute any given hurricane to climate change, only that “climate change makes such events more likely.”

  But such statements are a dodge. The reason we can’t attribute trends in hurricanes to climate change is that since reliable records started being kept the data indicates that hurricanes aren’t increasing in either frequency or intensity — full stop. To suggest that “climate change makes stronger hurricanes more likely or frequent” inappropriately misleads listeners and readers to believe that hurricanes are growing more likely or frequent.  

  As such, it’s clear that reporters are deliberately seeking to convince their readers and listeners of the false impression that hurricanes are becoming more frequent and intense. Many reporters do so in a subtle way, like ABC’s Zee, while others are more direct about it, like the FT’s Williams

  Moreover, these “mistakes” are occurring within a larger context of excluding relevant information, including what I view as the three biggest findings about the relationship between climate change and disasters:

  1. deaths from natural disasters have declined dramatically over many decades;

  2. costs from natural disasters have also declined as a proportion of our exposure;

  3. the frequency of natural disasters is declining this century.

  The Climate Alarmists’ War on Scientists

  The final piece of evidence that journalists are aware of the fact that hurricanes are becoming neither more frequent nor more intense comes from the vicious war waged against the most important and most outspoken scientist in the field, Roger Pielke, Jr.

  

  In 2018, John Podesta (left) and his Center for American Progress launched a campaign of character assassination against leading climate and hurricane researcher Roger Pielke, Jr. (right)

  University of Colorado scientist Pielke, Jr. in the late 1990s literally invented the method of “normalizing” the cost of hurricanes to account for a rising population, buildings, and wealth as the factors capable of explaining all of the rising cost of hurricanes, which meant that he and his colleagues discovered that there was no evidence that climate change was so far detectable in the escalating costs of hurricane disasters.

  Pielke, Jr. has for a quarter-century a strong advocate for strong action on climate change. But because his scientific work on hurricanes undermines climate alarmism, progressive activists and Democrats in Congress and the White House have vilified him. In 2008, the Center for American Progress, led by John Podesta, the former chief of staff to Bill Clinton and campaign chairman for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign, joined in on a shockingly vicious and personal series of attacks on Pielke, including falsely claiming he was funded by fossil fuel interests.

  All of these efforts were plainly aimed at discrediting Pielke, Jr., to journalists. They triggered an enormous quantity of media coverage which culminated in a 2014 effort by CAP to get Pielke, Jr. fired as a columnist for Nate Silver’s website, fivethirtyeight.com, after it published an article by Pielke, Jr. summarizing the science showing no increase in hurricane frequency or intensity.

  Pielke, Jr. then wrote about the experience of being canceled by fivethirtyeight.com in The Wall Street Journal in 2016. I wrote about the attacks in Apocalypse Never, in a viral article I wrote introducing the book, and again last week. Every senior editor, producer, or reporter working in a mainstream news media outlet knows about the debate over Pielke, Jr.’s work, and the fact base behind it.

  Roger has responded to these attacks, which have undermined his professional career, and intimidated his colleagues, many of whom behaved with the cowardice typical of academics today, with grace and dignity. He is a model of courage in public life. You can support him by taking a moment now to subscribe to his excellent, must-read Substack.

  I asked Roger whether he thought most reporters knew that hurricanes are not increasing in frequency and intensity, and were choosing to present information aimed at giving readers the opposite impression. He pointed to the graphs showing no change, and even a slight decline, in landfalling hurricanes and in major hurricanes.

  “We should ask why the data in these graphs have never appeared in the mainstream media,” he said. “Journalists should understand that by playing things straight with their readers and the public, more trust is gained in their work and in climate science more generally. People are not fools and won’t be tricked for long. Good science always wins in the end, even if it takes a little while.”

  It’s one thing for a journalist to accuse his fellow journalists of getting something wrong; it’s quite another to accuse them of deliberately misleading the public. The former is understandable and forgivable. We all make mistakes. But to deliberately mislead the public is a violation of the duty of the journalist to report basic facts accurately. To accuse a journalist of deliberately misleading the public is to accuse him or her of lying. I recognize that it’s a very serious charge.

  But it is time to state the obvious. The media are consciously and deliberately misleading the public about the relationship between climate change and hurricanes. That means they are lying. Mainstream news reporters, and their editors, at The Financial Times, New York Times, Washington Post, ABC News, and other outlets know perfectly well that hurricanes are not increasing in either frequency or intensity and have decided to mislead readers and viewers into believing the opposite.

  It’s time for that to change.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 23:25

• US Army Recruitment Falters – Misses Goal By 25% As Woke Ideology Takes Over
  US Army Recruitment Falters – Misses Goal By 25% As Woke Ideology Takes Over

  The US Army along with all other branches of the armed forced (except the Air Force) have continued to fall short of recruitment goals this year.  The Army reports a loss of over 15,000 new troops so far in 2022, while the US Marine Corp, Navy and Air Force are entering the next fiscal year with far less locked in recruits than normal. 

  Questions are rising about the reasons behind the steep decline in recruitment, with many suggesting that the “end” of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have reduced interest in service. 

  The real reasons are rather plain to see, however, as the Pentagon and the US government shifts their political rhetoric to the extreme left.

  For decades, the military has been comprised of 70% conservative/independent troops with views ranging from middle-of-the-road and libertarian to religious Republican.  The vast majority of soldiers are not progressive and do not vote Democrat.  That said, from 2021 onward there has been a change in the way recruits relate politically to the armed forces, perhaps because there has been a change in the way the military advertises.

  The US Army in particular is famous now for one of the worst recruitment campaigns in military history; going full woke last year with a series of cartoon ads that promoted woke politics and targeted the tiny LGBT segment of the population. 

  This led to widespread distrust among conservatives of the military overall and of the Army in particular.  Another issue which caused conservatives to walk away was open admissions by US generals about their goal of implementing Critical Race Theory and woke ideology in the armed forces.  The Navy is training its leadership to use identity “pronouns.”  West Point Military Academy is also now implementing woke concepts into its training curriculum.

  It’s interesting to note that the very first openly trans active duty Army officer was just caught betraying the US and sharing medical secrets of personnel with Russia. 

  Perhaps allowing mentally unstable people into the armed forces is not such a good idea?

  Add to that the fact that Joe Biden made a man (Rachel Levine) that identifies as a woman and that supports gender affirmation surgery for minors into a four star admiral, and you begin to see why the military can’t reach recruitment goals – They just lost the only segment of the population that has patriotic motivations for service; the most valuable segment of the population when it comes to war. And, there are nowhere near enough woke people to fill the void, thus, shortages rise.

  Beyond the attempts at woke indoctrination, there has also been the issue of forced covid vaccines.  This did not necessarily cause a large number of current serving to leave the military; many soldiers caved and accepted the vaccines in order to keep their jobs.  But, the military is now starting to abandon vaccine requirements anyway.  Why?  Because they can’t meet recruitment goals as millions of conservatives refuse to comply and refuse to enter into service under mandate conditions.

  Some may argue that this is a deliberate attempt by Biden and his handlers to purge conservatives from the armed forces, as leftists continue their witch hunt for “extremists” in the military.  Even if this is the case, it only helps the cause of liberty, with trained military personnel and all the capable fighters turning away from the woke movement rather than being used by it.  

  As the trend continues, the Pentagon will either implode, or it will be forced to capitulate and end woke indoctrination in order to keep a functioning military in place.  Leftists are natural weaklings and their ideology demands using victim status as a currency.  This means a woke military would be impossible to maintain – It would be an army of flailing, crying narcissists that only care about themselves.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 23:05

• "When Will They Learn?"
  “When Will They Learn?”

  Authored by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com,

  Dependency upon government is a disease. Once it has been caught, it becomes chronic and does not reverse itself in a population until the system collapses under its own weight.

  

  For many years, frustrated colleagues of mine who are either conservative or libertarian have posed the rhetorical question, “When will those liberals learn?” Surely, at some point (they reason), liberals will recognise that bailouts, entitlements, and a “planned” society simply do not work. It’s not even a question of whether liberalism is a laudable concept. The problem is that it just… doesn’t… work.

  Of course, my colleagues are correct in their appraisal of the liberal concept. Unfortunately, they are gravely mistaken in their belief that there comes a point at which the liberal “bubble” pops and suddenly all liberals wake up and smell the coffee.

  Truth be told, as long as governments can benefit from maintaining a strong liberal consciousness in their citizenry, and as long as they can count on the media to maintain that consciousness, it will always be possible to convince liberal thinkers that, whatever negative events have taken place in a given country, they are the fault of the “enemy”—the non-liberal contingent.

  But, surely, when there is clear-cut evidence that liberal policies have failed, liberals must accept that liberalism is an economic and social dead end. No, I’m afraid not. Let’s look at how just three examples are likely to play out—not as we’d like to see them play out, but how they will play out in reality.

  When the bailouts end, the economy will collapse. Liberals will then grasp that bailouts do not work. Not so, I’m afraid. Although endless QE is as implausible as perpetual motion, when it is finally halted, the economy will inevitably crash, and crash badly—made worse by QE. Will liberals then realise the failure of QE? No, they will only argue that the only problem was that it was halted—that, had it continued, it would eventually have saved the day.

  No liberal will hazard a guess as to what amount of QE or length of time would have created salvation; however, the blame for the crash will be placed squarely at the feet of the greedy One Percent, whom the liberals will say “engineered the end of QE in order to impoverish and enslave the middle class.” Liberals will be more committed than ever to government spending as a solution.

  When cities such as Bradford in the UK or Detroit in the US reach fiscal collapse, liberals will realise that ever-increasing entitlements are simply not sustainable, that such tax-based benefit programmes drive out thriving industries, leaving the poor behind, in a dying metropolis. Again, this will not happen. Instead of learning the obvious lesson, liberals will redouble their belief in collectivism. They will reason that the government had successfully protected inner city workers through benefit programmes. However, big business, wanting to create slaves of workers, sent jobs overseas, to countries where enslavement by the rich is still possible.

  By doing so, they removed tax dollars from the system, causing the impoverishment of inner-city dwellers, destroying their lives. Rather than abandon social programmes as ineffective, liberals will set about creating massive relocation programmes, such as moving the disenfranchised inner-city people to areas where there is sufficient local business for taxation to continue supporting those on public assistance. In so doing, those areas that were previously economically viable will also be bled to the point of fiscal failure, spreading the disease. However, the liberal conclusion will remain the same: “The problem is the greedy rich.”

  When the government has fully morphed into a dictatorial police state, liberals will realise that governmental overreach has destroyed their liberty. Again, this will not be the liberal view when the time comes. Instead, they will conclude, as they do now, that freedom is a small price to pay for safety. They will, therefore, not only accept, but encourage the government to redouble its Gestapo approach every time a lone gunman fires into a classroom. And any single such incident will be cause for a nationwide ramping-up of policing. (If no lone gunman appears on the scene just prior to a planned ramping-up, a suitable incident can always be created by the government.)

  In each of the above cases, nothing is learned by liberals, except that they were right all along: “Don’t trust the conservatives. They are evil and will destroy all good in society.”

  These three examples should be sufficient to demonstrate that there will be no magic day when liberals figure out the failings of collectivism. In fact, quite the opposite will be true. Just as any government benefits from its own expansion of power, so governments and the media propaganda systems will ensure good that the EU and US will only become more liberal over time.

  Throughout history, a basic truism has been evident: Dependency upon government is a disease. Once it has been caught, it becomes chronic and does not reverse itself in a population until the system collapses under its own weight.

  A good example of this is East Germany in the early 1990’s. In 1987, US President Reagan famously delivered the words in Berlin, “Mister Gorbachev, tear down this wall.” His words were heard so loudly that Mister Gorbachev did, indeed, tear down the wall. Almost immediately, West Berliners, thrilled to be reunited with their brothers to the East, created thousands of job opportunities for East Germans. East Germans were equally thrilled, anticipating that they might now have larger apartments, higher pay, and possibly own televisions and cars. However, East Germans did not respond well to the standards of the West, feeling that employers were too harsh in their requirements and the benefits were not what they had been used to.

  East and west re-unified, but the transition was not a smooth one.

  But, before we place all the criticism on liberals, it is well to note that, in both the EU and US, conservatives often tend to be just as dogmatic in their assessments. Whilst conservatives arguably may have a better grasp than liberals as to fiscal realities, they, too, are continuously programmed to adhere to a fixed group of perceptions.

  Conservatives and liberals are both programmed to maintain ongoing opposition to each other. Conservatives are perceived as greedy and evil by liberals; liberals are perceived as naïve and stupid by conservatives. The more they can be polarised from each other, the more governments may make use of the polarity as a distraction from their own actions. The more conservatives and liberals place the blame on each other, the more governments may present themselves as the referee, whist, in fact, they do all they can to expand the mutual animosity.

  When people are angry, they do not think straight. The angrier they become, the more reason goes out the window. Consequently, the more a government can stir up its minions to attack each other, the more power the government has to impose ever-greater controls on the population. In a conservative administration, a government will institute greater social controls. In the following liberal administration, the government will institute greater economic controls. And the police state will be increased under both administrations.

  The net effect is overall increased dominance by government. Under the two-party system, this dominance is not only tolerated by the populace, but encouraged.

  The day never comes when a people convince their government to “lighten up.” Relief only comes when an overly-powerful governmental system collapses under its own weight.

  *  *  *

  Unfortunately, there’s little any individual can practically do to change the course of these trends in motion. The best you can and should do is to stay informed so that you can protect yourself in the best way possible, and even profit from the situation. That’s precisely why bestselling author Doug Casey and his colleagues just released an urgent new PDF report that explains what could come next and what you can do about it. Click here to download it now.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 22:45

• China Has Set Up Dozens Of Unofficial Police Stations Around The World: Report
  China Has Set Up Dozens Of Unofficial Police Stations Around The World: Report

  The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has opened dozens of unofficial police stations around the world, including at least three in Toronto, Canada, according to a September report from human rights NGO, Safeguard Defenders.

  

  The report claims that China has been engaging in “long-arm policing” around the world in what has been dubbed the “110 overseas police stations,” named after the police emergency number in China; 110.

  The report has identified 54 Chinese overseas police stations spanning 30 countries – which are under the jurisdiction of two local-level police services in China; the Fuzhou Public Security Bureau in Fuzhou City, Fujian Province, and the Qingtian County police in Zhejiang Province.

  Local media is now step-by-step investigating many of these stations, with SD’s help, and we have collected lots of data on many of them, to push understanding about these stations further.

  Much more to come on this topic. https://t.co/NEguhacBOf pic.twitter.com/fIKg06IGo0

  — Safeguard Defenders (保护卫士) (@SafeguardDefend) September 23, 2022

  More via the Epoch Times;

  Peter Dahlin, founder and director of Safeguard Defender and co-author of the report, says that following the release of his organization’s findings, security police or related government agencies from North America and Europe have approached his organization asking “to sit down and have a briefing discussion” on the Chinese operations overseas.

  “So they are certainly aware of it, at least in some countries,” Dahlin told The Epoch Times.

  More Locations

  While the Chinese authorities say these police stations are created to better serve its overseas nationals, the report noted that those stations have been used to “persuade” up to 230,000 Chinese nationals to “voluntarily” return to China to face criminal proceedings between April 2021 and July 2022.

  “Persuasion to return” is a key method of the Chinese regime’s “involuntary returns” operations, which include its “Operation Fox Hunt” and the broader “Sky Net” campaign, according to Safeguard Defenders. Many of the targets for persuasion to return were overseas Chinese allegedly involved in telecommunication fraud, though the report said a number of non-suspects and their family members in China have also been targeted for police harassment and intimation.

  Dahlin said that in addition to the three stations in Toronto—two in Markham and one in Scarborough, whose locations were published in a Chinese state media outlet—there are likely other unofficial Chinese police stations either existing or being established in Canada, though they have yet to be discovered.

  “We’ve also seen a [Chinese] government notice that said that 10 different provinces should launch these types of operations on a pilot basis,” he told The Epoch Times, pointing to the report’s citation of a July 5, 2018, news release issued by the Chinese regime.

  “So, we have two of these operations uncovered [in Fujian Province and Zhejiang Province]. There might be eight more provinces doing this that could have their own stations, and we have not been able to track down that information yet. That’s why we keep saying that … we believe and we have good reason to think that there are more [overseas Chinese police stations].”

  The news release is in relation to the Chinese State Council’s 2018 “Work Plan for the Supervision of the National Special Struggle Against Gang Crimes.” A Chinese state media reported in January 2019 that Beijing had conducted a first-round one-month supervision training from July to September 2018 in the 10 provinces of Hebei, Shanxi, Liaoning, Fujian, Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Guangdong, Chongqing, and Sichuan.

  Another report that year, in April 2019, said the regime had completed a second-round training for another 11 provinces, including Zhejiang Province where the Qingtian police service is located.

  Given the large Chinese diaspora population in Vancouver, Dahlin noted that he would find it “very strange” if the city didn’t have at least one 110 police station.

  ‘Transnational Repression’

  Safeguard Defenders says its September report is part of its ongoing monitoring of China’s growing global transnational repression. Dahlin said the report came on the heels of another report by his organization, titled “Involuntary Returns—report exposes long-arm policing overseas.”

  That earlier report, published in January 2022, looked at the Chinese regime’s claim in December 2021 that its Sky Net operations, along with partner Operation Fox Hunt, have successfully brought some 10,000 “fugitives” back to China from around the globe since 2014, when Fox Hunt was launched as part of Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign.

  Those operations target what Dahlin described as “high-value targets.” Officially, Sky Net says it only targets economic criminals and officials accused of crimes like corruption or bribery, according to the Safeguard Defenders report, but Dahlin said Sky Net has been found to also target human rights defenders. Operations against high-value targets are run by the Chinese central police, whereas those involved in lower-level crimes like fraud—who are considered low-value targets—are tracked by the local Chinese police, Dahlin said.

  “The most common method to do this is to persuade them to return ‘voluntarily.’ We’ve also had a number of cases where [Beijing] sent agents—Chinese police officers, undercover—to the target countries; we have a number of people in the U.S. being indicted for this,” he said.

  A third way, Dahlin said, is to use kidnappings. He noted that his organization has identified 22 cases of kidnapping.

  Although his organization hasn’t found any cases of direct kidnapping in Canada, Dahlin said that in Canada and the United States, the Chinese regime does “a lot more [of] sending secret agents to intimidate people and that type of operations.”

  When asked about the severity of the Chinese overseas operations, Dahlin said the impacts on Canada is “certainly worse than Europe.”

  “Canada has such a significant Chinese diaspora community—much bigger than pretty much all of Europe together—so certainly, there’s a lot more people at risk in Canada,” he said, adding that Canada, the United States, and Australia are “the big three” destinations when it comes to Chinese asylum-seekers and relocation.

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  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 22:25

• Hunter Biden Laptop Whistleblower Speaks Out 2 Years Later
  Hunter Biden Laptop Whistleblower Speaks Out 2 Years Later

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Tony Bobulinski, the former Hunter Biden associate who came forward in 2020 about messages on the younger Biden’s laptop, said the FBI never followed up with him despite promising to.

  

  During an interview with Fox News’s Tucker Carlson on Monday, Bobulinski asserted that former FBI agent Timothy Thibault—who was accused by GOP senators of having an animus against Trump and slow-walking the Hunter Biden investigation—never got back to him when Bobulinski came forward with the information ahead of the 2020 election.

  “Tim Thibault, in his last discussion with my legal counsel, said, ‘Listen, we know Tony’s cooperating. We appreciate all the information he’s provided. We will follow up with you. We are definitely going to have him come in for a follow-up interview, or spend some more time on this,’” Bobulinski told Carlson. “And I haven’t heard from him since. Nor have my lawyers.”

  Bobulinski in the interview again asserted that President Joe Biden was highly involved in his son’s overseas business operations. The president has denied that he had knowledge of Hunter Biden’s finances or deals.

  How is the Biden crime family structured? Our Exclusive interview with Tony Bobulinski. 8 PM ET. Only on @FoxNews. pic.twitter.com/sPR0KT5Fd0

  — Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) October 4, 2022

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  “There are hundreds of data points that Joe Biden was acting in—in a capitalistic term, I would say the chairman,” Bobulinski told Carlson.

  In October 2020, Bobulinski came forward to the media and revealed Joe Biden’s involvement in his son’s business, including with a Chinese energy company CEFC.

  In one email sourced from the infamous laptop, the elder Biden was named as the “big guy” by Hunter Biden because of the 10 percent cut he allegedly received from CEFC. Bobulinski corroborated the authenticity of those emails and messages.

  Bobulinski accused the Biden family of being “compromised” by Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials due to their business deals with individuals and companies connected to the CCP, adding that it’s impossible Joe Biden “can’t be influenced in some manner based on the history that they have with CEFC.”

  

  ‘Chairman’

  “The chairman of JPMorgan doesn’t take eight meetings down with the people, you know, analyzing companies. The chairman serves a purpose, right? He’s a figurehead,” Bobulinski told Carlson. “He shows up in meetings, shakes hands, advises, you know, has faith in his team. Effectively, that was Joe Biden’s role in the Biden family business ventures and around the world. And not just my venture.”

  Bobulinski noted that President Biden “was adamant to the American people that he had no knowledge of his family’s business deals” but asked: “How, if he had zero knowledge of that, could he be telling his son that he’s in the clear” regarding an article from the New York Times on Hunter Biden’s work with a Chinese company.

  He was referring to a voicemail that Biden left his son regarding the NY Times report in 2018, telling him: “I think you’re clear.” That story delved into Hunter Biden’s deals with a Chinese oil tycoon, Ye Jianming.

  Retirement

  In August, Thibault left the FBI following several letters sent to FBI leaders by Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Ron Johnson (R-Wis.). The lawmakers have publicly accused Thibault of meddling in the Hunter Biden investigation and said that whistleblowers came forward with those claims.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 22:05

• 'Burn Down The System': Another Leftist Teacher Caught By Project Veritas Indoctrinating Students
  ‘Burn Down The System’: Another Leftist Teacher Caught By Project Veritas Indoctrinating Students

  Leftists and the mainstream media continue to gaslight the public and claim that ideological grooming of children by teachers is not happening in schools; that this is a “conspiracy theory.” 

  And yet, multiple times a month new leftist teachers are exposed bragging about their brainwashing of other people’s children into the woke fold. 

  This is why US educational scores and testing scores are sinking, and this is why “trans trenders” are becoming prominent in the past 5 years among zennials. 

  There is a widespread active effort in public schools by teachers and sometimes district officials to push extreme social justice propaganda. 

  It’s not conspiracy theory, it’s a concrete reality.

   

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 21:45

• Supreme Court Declines To Hear Case On DOJ 'Filter Teams' Used After FBI Trump Raid
  Supreme Court Declines To Hear Case On DOJ ‘Filter Teams’ Used After FBI Trump Raid

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The Supreme Court on Monday declined to hear whether the Department of Justice (DOJ) can use its so-called “filter teams,” including the one that is being used to review documents seized at former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago.

  

  In the Korf v. United States case, the nine justices declined to hear a writ of certiorari (pdf) that questioned the legality of the filter team protocols. The rules allow agents and prosecutors who aren’t assigned to a case to examine seized materials that are claimed to be privileged before a judge issues a ruling.

  Like the vast majority of cases the Supreme Court declines to hear, the justices on Monday did not provide an explanation why it rejected the Korf petition.

  The case pertained to a DOJ money laundering probe that claimed that the use of a filter team was a violation of the Constitution’s 6th Amendment right to counsel.

  “Only after the filter team has reviewed the documents would a court rule on whether privilege applies. That procedure needlessly and harmfully exposes assertedly privileged communications to the government’s eyes,” lawyers for Mordechai Korf, who the DOJ targeted with a civil forfeiture complaint in January, said in their filing.

  “It undermines essential protections for the adversary system,” the lawyers continued. “And it jeopardizes the confidentiality needed for the applicable privileges to serve their vital purposes.”

  Trump Case

  If the Supreme Court ruled on the case, it may have provided clarity for the DOJ and Trump’s legal team following the raid.

  In September, a district judge sided with Trump’s team in appointing a special master to review documents that were taken during the raid on Aug. 8 that the former president said was unprecedented and politically motivated.

  Lawyers for the DOJ confirmed the agency used a filter team to start its review of the documents that were collected during the FBI search, according to court filings. DOJ attorneys further argued that because a preliminary review of the documents was completed, it would not be necessary to appoint a special master.

  A Sept. 1 court filing from Trump, meanwhile, asserted that the DOJ filter team never communicated with his team following the FBI raid.

  “Never has an argument against ‘interference’ better underscored the need for judicial involvement,” the filing read. “All of this in the context of a unilateral filter team operation that to-date has never made any contact with counsel for the Movant, another historic first for DOJ.”

  His lawyers suggested that the DOJ team would possibly “impugn, leak, and publicize selective aspects” of their probe to damage Trump.

  The former president, who said the FBI-seized materials were declassified by him, has long argued the FBI and DOJ have unfairly targeted him since when he was a candidate during the 2016 election.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 21:25

• Biden Announces $625M More Ukraine Defense Aid In Zelensky Phone Call
  Biden Announces $625M More Ukraine Defense Aid In Zelensky Phone Call

  The White House has continued its strong stance and denunciations against Russia’s “sham referendums” in Ukraine’s east – now being formalized in Russian parliament – while unveiling a new $625 million security assistance package for Ukraine.

  The new aid package, which brings the total defense assistance pledged by the United States since the start of the war to a whopping $16.8 billion, was announced in relation with Tuesday’s phone call between President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Vince President Kamala Harris was also in on the call. 

  Biden and Harris vowed the US “will never recognize Russia’s purported annexation of Ukrainian territory,” according to a readout. “President Biden pledged to continue supporting Ukraine as it defends itself from Russian aggression for as long as it takes, including the provision today of a new $625 million security assistance package that includes additional weapons and equipment, including [High Mobility Rocket Artillery Systems], artillery systems and ammunition, and armored vehicles,” the readout said.

  

  A separate statement by Secretary Blinken indicated the new weapons package will be the “second under presidential drawdown authority, and includes four High Mobility Rocket Artillery Systems, 16 155 mm howitzers, 16 105 mm howitzers, 75,000 155mm artillery rounds, 500 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds and 1,000 155mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine Systems, among other equipment.”

  Artillery munitions resupplies are said be among the most urgent requirements as Ukraine continues its so far successful counteroffensives in the east and south. Russia’s Putin has called up some 300,000 reservists in response.

  Echoing the contents of the Biden-Zelensky call, Blinken stressed that the Russian annexation move will only strengthen Washington’s resolve in supporting Ukraine: 

  “Recent developments from Russia’s sham referenda and attempted annexation to new revelations of brutality against civilians in Ukrainian territory formerly controlled by Russia only strengthens our resolve. United with our Allies and partners from 50 nations, we are delivering the arms and equipment that Ukraine’s forces are utilizing so effectively today in a successful counter-offensive to take back their lands seized illegally by Russia.”

  As for the ongoing counteroffensive, there are now signs that Russian frontlines in the south are being rapidly penetrated by the Ukrainian advance to recapture occupied territory.

  According to a Tuesday report in The Moscow Times, “Russia’s forces occupying Ukraine’s southern Black Sea region of Kherson have suffered serious territorial losses to Kyiv’s troops over recent days, maps published by Moscow’s Defense Ministry showed Tuesday.”

  #Ukraine 🇺🇦: Ukrainian forces have entered the village of Dudchany in northern #Kherson as they continue their advance south. pic.twitter.com/GV8gNkrz29

  — Thomas van Linge (@ThomasVLinge) October 4, 2022

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  “The maps included in Tuesday’s daily military briefing showed that Russian forces are no longer in control of the village of Dudchany on the west bank of the river Dnipro, where Ukraine’s forces have been pushing to reclaim territory captured at the start of Moscow’s offensive,” the report said.

  The HIMARS in particular have been touted as a gamechanger on the battlefield, as it gives Ukraine’s army the ability to reach deep into Russian supply lines and key forward operating bases as well.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 21:05

• Judge Grants Permanent Injunction Against Philadelphia Mayor's Ban On Guns In City Recreation Facilities
  Judge Grants Permanent Injunction Against Philadelphia Mayor’s Ban On Guns In City Recreation Facilities

  Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

  A Philadelphia judge on Monday blocked the city from banning guns at parks and recreation facilities after a gun rights lobbying group argued that the city does not have authority to do so.

  Judge Joshua H. Roberts of the Philadelphia Court of Common Pleas issued a permanent injunction (pdf) against the ban and permanently enjoined the city against enforcing the directive.

  Philadelphia Mayor Jim Kenney, a Democrat, signed an executive order (pdf) in September banning firearms in all city-owned recreational facilities, stating that it was “crucial to take steps” to ensure that the city’s recreational facilities are “a safe place for children and all of the Philadelphia community to gather.”

  

  The executive order stated that since 2019, nearly 300 reported shooting incidents have occurred at city recreation facilities, in addition to dozens of other incidents of violence with a deadly weapon.

  It also cited the Sept. 9 death of Tiffany Fletcher, an employee of the Mill Creek Recreation Center in West Philadelphia. Fletcher was shot and killed while working, the order said.

  The order went into effect immediately and prohibited anyone carrying a firearm from entering any indoor or outdoor facility operated by the city’s Department of Parks and Recreation.

  Such places include recreational centers, ballfields, courts, pools, and playgrounds but excluded park trails and “passive park space,” according to the order.

  

  An AR-15 upper receiver nicknamed “The Balloter” is seen for sale at Firearms Unknown, a gun store in Oceanside, Calif., on April 12, 2021. (Bing Guan/Reuters)

  Ban ‘Directly Violates Pennsylvania Law’

  It allowed for individuals carrying guns in such places to be treated as trespassers if they refused to leave.

  Less than 24 hours after signing the order, Gun Owners of America (GOA), a nonprofit organization aimed at protecting the right to keep and bear arms, filed suit against the order in state court.

  GOA argued in a complaint (pdf) that the mayor’s order “directly violates Pennsylvania law, and may not be enforced” because the Preemption Statute expressly prohibits any county, municipality, or township from passing gun-control measures.

  “Pennsylvania law expressly preempts the Mayor from banning firearms in public recreational facilities. Nonetheless, Mayor Jim Kenney has attempted to do so. He may not. Pennsylvania law is ‘crystal clear’: regulation of firearms is a matter of statewide concern, and must be undertaken by the General Assembly,” they wrote.

  Pennsylvania Law states that “no county, municipality or township may in any manner regulate the lawful ownership, possession, transfer or transportation of firearms, ammunition or ammunition components when carried or transported for purposes not prohibited by the laws of this Commonwealth.”

  “The law in Pennsylvania couldn’t be clearer,” Andrew Austin, GOA’s attorney in the case, said in a statement following Monday’s ruling.

  …

  A spokesperson for Mayor Kenney said the city is “disappointed” by the latest ruling while citing recent shooting incidents at recreation facilities across the city.

  “We are reviewing today’s decision and are disappointed by the outcome, which as it stands prevents City employees from making the reasonable request that anyone with a firearm or deadly weapon leave a recreation facility,” Sarah Peterson, Deputy Communications Director for Mayor Kenney, told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement.

  “The Mayor’s Executive Order was intended to prevent the senseless violence that is interfering with the safety of children, families, and staff in what must be safe places,” Peterson added.

  The City of Philadelphia is expected to appeal the Judge’s order, which GOA said would result in the city continuing to “frivolously waste taxpayer money on their unlawful anti-gun agenda.”

  …

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 20:45

• Nearly Half Of Americans Making Six-Figures Living Paycheck To Paycheck
  Nearly Half Of Americans Making Six-Figures Living Paycheck To Paycheck

  Roughly 60% of Americans say they’re living paycheck to paycheck – a figure which hasn’t budged much overall from last year’s 55% despite inflation hitting 40-year highs, according to a recent LendingClub report.

  

  Even people earning six figures are feeling the strain, with 45% reporting living paycheck to paycheck vs. 38% last year, CNBC reports.

  “More consumers living paycheck to paycheck indicates that many are continuing to lose their financial stability,” said LendingClub financial health officer, Anuj Nayar.

  The consumer price index, which measures the average change in prices for consumer goods and services, rose a higher-than-expected 8.3% in August, driven by increases in food, shelter and medical care costs.

  Although real average hourly earnings also rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, they remained down 2.8% from a year ago, which means those paychecks don’t stretch as far as they used to. -CNBC

  Meanwhile, Bank of America found that 71% of workers say their income isn’t keeping pace with inflation – resulting in a five-year low in terms of financial security.

  

  “It is no secret that prices have been increasing for everyday Americans — not only in the goods and services they purchase but also in the interest rates they’re paying to fund their lives,” said Nayar, who noted that people are relying more on credit cards and carry a higher monthly balance, making them financially vulnerable. “This can have detrimental consequences for someone who pays the minimum amount on their credit cards every month.”

  According to an Aug. 30 report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, credit card balances increased by $46 billion from last year, becoming the second-biggest source of overall debt last quarter.

  

  And as Bloomberg noted last month, more US consumers are saddled with credit card debt for longer periods of time. According to a recent survey by CreditCards.com, 60% of credit card debtors have been holding this type of debt for at least a year, up 50% from a year ago, while those holding debt for over two years is up 40%, from 32%, according to the online credit card marketplace.

  

  And while total credit-card balances remain slightly lower than pre-pandemic levels, inflation and rising interest rates are taking a toll on the already-stretched finances of US households.

  About a quarter of respondents said day-to-day expenses are the primary reason why they carry a balance. Almost half cite an emergency or unexpected expense, including medical bills and home or car repair.

  The Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates for the fifth time this year next week. Credit-card rates are typically directly tied to the Fed Funds rate, and their increase along with a softening economy may lead to higher delinquencies. 

  Total consumer debt rose $23.8 billion in July to a record $4.64 trillion, according to data from the Federal Reserve. -Bloomberg

  The Fed’s figures include credit card and auto debt, as well as student loans, but does not factor in mortgage debt.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 20:25

• Former Clinton Advisor Says Hillary May Run In 2024
  Former Clinton Advisor Says Hillary May Run In 2024

  Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

  Following comments criticising the handling of mass immigration on the southern border, a long time Clinton advisor says that it appears Hillary may be positioning herself for another presidential run in 2024.

  

  The New York Post reports that strategist Dick Morris believes Hillary is moving toward presenting herself as a “moderate” centrist candidate in 2024.

  “I see more and more signs that Hillary’s going to run,” Morris, a former aide to Bill Clinton, said during a radio interview.

  Morris said the fact that Hillary is acknowledging that most Americans “do not believe in open borders,” is a tell tale sign.

  “These are all signals that she is going to be the moderate candidate for president. She’s going to say after the election, ‘See, the left cost us the House and the Senate. If we stay with a left-wing candidate in 2024, we’re going to lose the White House. I’m the only one who will tack to the center and give us a chance at victory​,​’​” Morris said.

  The political consultant added that “it’s the strategy I designed for Bill Clinton in 1992” and that “​Hillary is just dusting off Bill‘s playbook that I wrote for him and applying it herself this year.”

  Listen (relevant part starts at 46 mins):

  Morris previously recently predicted that Democrats are going to reject Biden for a second run in favour of Clinton in order to avoid the potential of “some crazy radical like Gavin Newson, Bernie Sanders. Maybe even AOC herself” becoming a front runner.

  “That’s going to drive the Democratic Party leaders to go to Hillary and say, ‘Hey look. Please run again. We need you to save us from the crazy left,’” ​Morris said, adding “Otherwise we’ll have Sanders as our candidate. We’ll lose Congress by a ton. And we’ll get wiped out in the presidential race.’”

  During an MSNBC interview a fortnight ago, Hillary noted “nobody wants open borders who has any idea of how government and countries work.”​

  Hillary recently declared that she would never run for President again, but that hasn’t stopped the rumours from circulating.

  Meanwhile, despite continued questions over his mental degradation, Joe Biden has reportedly told Al Sharpton that he plans to run again for president in 2024.

  In related news, an underreported piece by Breitbart last week detailed how Hillary aides reportedly seriously believed that Donald Trump, acting as a Russian agent, planned to poison Hillary with some sort of deadly handshake during the presidential debates in 2016.

  The revelation is made in a forthcoming book by New York Times reporter Maggie Haberman, who details how “During preparations for the third debate, Clinton’s team was disrupted by a warning from the husband of Senator Dianne Feinstein, who said he had been told that Russians might try to poison Clinton through a handshake with Trump, to inflict a dramatic health episode during the debate.”

  While the book claims Hillary personally didn’t take the threat seriously, “Her communications director, Jennifer Palmieri, took the prospect seriously enough to check it out,” Haberman writes.

  Interestingly, there was no handshake at the beginning of the third debate:

  *  *  *

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  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 20:05

• Amazon Reportedly Halts Corporate Hiring For Retail Business
  Amazon Reportedly Halts Corporate Hiring For Retail Business

  America’s second-largest employer announced a hiring freeze following an earlier announcement that US job openings plunged in August. This could be even more evidence the labor market is cooling. 

  According to an internal memo obtained by The New York Times, Amazon recruiters have been instructed to halt all hiring for “corporate roles, including technology positions, globally in its Amazon stores business, which covers the company’s retail and operations, and accounts for the bulk of Amazon’s sales” by mid-month. As of Monday, 20,000 openings were posted in that division. The memo stated that the company’s cloud computing division wouldn’t be impacted.

  The memo stated recruiters are instructed to tell all job candidates that the Seattle tech giant wasn’t in a hiring freeze. It went on to say all job requisitions should close immediately. It said new job openings would be available until 1Q23. 

  And why would Amazon recruiters lie to job candidates that the company isn’t in a hiring freeze, but according to an internal memo obtained by NYT, they are? It could cause worried people to stop applying to unfrozen departments like AWS.  

  Professional community website Blind had one anonymous account post four days ago: “Amazon hiring freeze is real.” Here’s a snapshot of what the alleged Amazon employee said about the freeze:

  

  “The corporate hiring freeze is the latest sign that cost-controlling measures are hitting Amazon’s core retail and technology teams as well,” NYT said. Perhaps this reflects a faltering consumer, battered by negative real wage growth, the highest inflation in decades, maxed out credit cards, and personal savings on empty. 

  Amazon’s hiring freeze comes amid the threats of a recession because of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary tightening to combat inflation. Meta and Google have been other big tech companies to pause hiring as the economic outlook remains cloudy. And today’s drop in job openings in August confirms labor market cooling is likely underway. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 19:45

• Is Canada On The Verge Of A Political Revolution?
  Is Canada On The Verge Of A Political Revolution?

  Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,

  Canada like many other countries may be on the cusp of a political revolution. To the chagrin of the mainstream media in Canada, Pierre Poilievre has been elected the leader of Canada’s Conservative opposition party. As a result of his win, attacks on Poilievre have dramatically increased. He has been declared as “dangerous” and even reckless. In short, Canadian media is busy painting him as a mini Donald Trump. 

  In what is seen as a move to appease many of his critics Prime Minister Justin Trudeau recently declared an end to Canada’s vaccine mandate. This includes the policy of requiring travelers entering Canada to provide their vaccine passports and a slew of other restrictions and requirements. This took effect on September 30th and was considered partly in response to the growing threat of the populist sentiment popping up in Canada. Many Canadians had come to view Trudeau’s vaccine dictate as overtly authoritarian, it reeked of government overreach and Gestapo-style tactics.

  

  The Poilievre surge has resulted in Canada’s mainstream media ramping up the fear factor by declaring Poilievre’s recent win as dangerous. Some of the recent headlines, such as the one to the left put out by the Toronto Star, leave little question as to the color of paint they wish to use. The headline in the Tyee was also unkind, it read, “Pierre Poilievre Is a Symptom of the Conservative’s Sickness”

  The surge in Canada is occurring at the same time the populist movement is strengthening in several other countries. For instance, in Italy, Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing bloc is celebrating a historic victory and its clear majority. Meloni’s victory came despite European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen threatening to bring the EU mechanism to bear against Italy if Italian voters placed Giorgia Meloni in power.

  Even after the threat, the latest election in Italy resulted in a landslide win for the conservative coalition and Italy’s first woman prime minister. Following her win, Georgia Meloni, gave a rousing victory speech that directly exposed the far-left invasion of western nations, globalism, and the poisonous collusion with woke corporations to silence dissent. Meloni called for a return to freedom, and the response from the media was to call her a “fascist.” 

  Meloni Called For A Return To Freedom

  A two-minute video of a Meloni speech went viral as the votes in Italy were being counted. In it, the new Italian Prime Minister eloquently describes that Italians and human beings, in general, are not mere identity-less consumers and economic playthings of the ivory tower technocrat class. Apparently, her attitude resonated with voters that have simply had enough.

  

  Meloni’s win is just a small part of an ongoing trend. It should also be noted that in this year’s municipal elections in the Czech Republic the populist ANO party, led by former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, came in first in eight of 13 regional capitals. Babiš, considered a close ally of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, narrowly lost the Czech national elections in 2021. These latest numbers indicate that his party is clawing back voters due to a souring economy and growing cost-of-living crisis.

  Opinion polls, controlled by the mainstream media, often understate the strength of right-wing candidates. Another place where the same populist dynamic has flared up is Brazil. On Sunday, President Jair Bolsonaro’s numbers far exceeded pollsters’ consensus. Heading into the election a major poll pointed to former left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva winning by a 14% margin. In the end, Lula only received 48.4% of the votes forcing the two men into a run-off election on Oct 30. At this point, it seems that momentum is on Bolsanaro’s side. 

  While political leaders like Justin Trudeau and Joe Biden strut around on the media stage accusing ideological opponents of being “enemies of democracy and dangerous,” their mostly conservative rivals talk about restoring power to the people. What could be more democratic than that? We can only hope enough of those people that feel their country is headed down the wrong path wake up and question what they are being told.

  The one thing Poilievre, Meloni, and most of the politicians spouting populist or conservative messages have in common is that they are hated and branded as dangerous by the mainstream media. It could be argued that much of this is rooted in the fact these politicians denounce all notions the globalist elites should be allowed to expand their power and rule. In short, they are willing to swim against the tide.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 19:25

• Now That Twitter Belongs To Elon, Here Is What He Will Do To The Platform In His Own Words
  Now That Twitter Belongs To Elon, Here Is What He Will Do To The Platform In His Own Words

  Now that the dramatic, if pointless and expensive, interlude of Musk trying to sabotage his own (extremely overpriced) purchase of Twitter is finally over with Musk conceding to buy the social network at the original proposed price of $54.20.

  So what’s next? Will Musk keep Twitter as is, or will he burn it down, fire all its employees,and rebuild it from the ground up? Conveniently, Musk’s Twitter-linked text messages, publicly released as part of the Twitter lawsuit legal disclosure, provide enough information for what Musk really wants in terms of a final product.

  Buying Twitter is an accelerant to creating X, the everything app

  — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 4, 2022

  First, as stated in the following exchange with Valor CEO Antonio Gracias, Musk believes in free speech. So much so that he finds Russia Today “quite entertaining” with “lots of bullshit but some good points too.”

  

  Musk expressed similar sentiment in the following exchange with ex-wife Talulah Jane (TJ) Riley, who was dismayed at the Babylon Bee’s suspension and who proposed to “buy Twitter and make it radically free speech”… or “delete it.”

  

  Musk then speaks to VC entrepreneur Jon Lonsdale, where they discuss Musk’s desire to make Twitter an open source algo because it’s important to “reign in big tech” and “our public square needs to not have arbitrary sketch censorship.” Musk’s response: “what we have right now is hidden corruption!“

  

  As an aside, a few weeks later, after it emerged that Musk had purchased a sizable stake in Twitter, Jon Lonsdale made an interesting observation: “I bet you the board doesn’t even get full reporting or see any report of the censorship decisions and little cabals going on there but they should – the lefties on the board likely want plausible deniability!”

  

  Things get more interesting in this exchange with Twitter founder Jack Dorsey, in which Jack echoed not only that Twitter must be an “open source protocol” but that it “can’t have an advertising model. Otherwise you have surface area that governments and advertisers will try to influence and control. If it has a centralized entity behind it, it will be attacked.” Jack’s conclusion: “this isn’t complicated work, it just has to be done right so it’s resilient to what has happened to twitter.” After a lengthy back and forth, Musk tells Jack that “it’s worth both trying to move Twitter in a better direction and doing something new that’s decentralized.”

  

  A quick tangent, in which we learn that it wasn’t just Elon seeking to buy Twitter, so was the J.P. Morgan of crypto, Sam-Bankman Fried: look for SBF to have a prominent role in the company going forward.

  

  And a second tangent: what is SBF’s net worth and how much money could he put into twitter: short answer to both: a lot.

  

  Another interesting exchange, this time with Mathias Dopfner, CEO of German media conglomerate Axel Springer, which owns a bunch of tabloids such as Bild, in which he says that if Musk buys it, Alex Springer would be willing to run twitter.

  

  An especially interesting exchange took place minutes after Musk revealed his Twitter stake with a person who, unlike everyone else in the disclosure, demanded to be unnamed. Due to the “sensitive” nature of his proposal “navigating how to let right-wingers back on Twitter… especially the boss himself”)we can only assume it is due to fear of being canceled by the radical left mob.

  

  Another exchange after Musk announced he was seeking a board seat is with the abovementioned Matthias Dopfner, head of Germany’s Axel Springer, who does everything in his power to make his personal media outlets painstakingly, boringly, crushingly woke and politically correct, who we learn is really just another hypocrite and closet “anti-woke”, suggesting to Musk that he create a marketplace for algos, “e.g., if you’re a snowflake and don’t want content that offends you pick another algorithm.” If only Dofpner would do the same with his empire of snowflake-catering tabloids. Amusingly, Dopfner has some other “actionable” recos, such as “solve free speech.” Oh ok. Here is the rest of what the CEO of one of the world’s biggest tabloid empires (and recent acquiror of Politico) wants to do:

  Status Quo: it is the de facto public town square, but It is a problem that it does not adhere to free speech principles. => so the core product is pretty good, but (i) it does not serve democracy, and (ii) the current business model is a dead end as reflected by flat share price.

  Goal: Make Twitter the global backbone of free speech, an open market place of ideas that truly complies with the spirit of the first amendment and shift the business model to a combination of ad-supported and paid to support quality

  Game Plan:

  1.) “Solve Free Speech”

  • 1-a) Step 1″ Make it censorship-FREE by radically reducing Terms of Services (now hundreds of pages) to the following: Twitter users agree to:
    • (1) Use our service to send spam or scam users,
    • (2) Promote violence,
    • (3) Post illegal pornography.
  • 1-b) Step 2: Make Twitter censorship-RESISTANT
    • Ensure censorship resistance by implementing measures that warrant that Twitter can’t be censored long term, regardless of which government and management
    • How? Keep pushing projects at Twitter that have been working on developing a decentralized social network protocol (e.g., BlueSky). It’s not easy, but the back-end must run on decentralized infrastructure, APIs should become open (back to the roots! Twitter started and became big with open APIs).
    • Twitter would be one of many clients to post and consume content.
    • Then create a marketplace for algorithms, e.g., if you’re a snowflake and don’t want content that offends you pick another algorithm.

  2.) “Solve Share Price” – Current state of the business:

  • Twitter’s ad revenues grow steadily and for the time being, are sufficient to fund operations.
  • MAUs are flat, no structural growth
  • Share price is flat, no confidence in the existing business model

  

  But while a lot of these ideas were inbounds to Musk, where things get really “insightful” is when Elon chats with his brother Kimbal, about his vision. We will publish these without commentary because, well, it’s well beyond our pay grade to comment on Musk’s “vision” – some peculiar cross between a social media, blockchain, a direct messaging app which stores messages forever, and all of it using some token (why not dogecoin).

  

  Here Jason Calacanis also chimes in with some ideas. His comments on De Sasntis are amusing.

  

  It continues a few days later, where Calacanis reveals he may be the next Twitter CEO, and Musk is receptive:

  

  And some more ideas from Calacanis:

  

  Finally, some good news for the liberals out there:

  

  While those were some of the key exchanges, there is much more in the full Musk text message discovery below:

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 19:05

• Former NSA Staffer Charged With Espionage After Trying To Sell Information To Undercover FBI Agent
  Former NSA Staffer Charged With Espionage After Trying To Sell Information To Undercover FBI Agent

  Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A former employee of the National Security Agency (NSA) was charged with espionage for allegedly trying to sell classified national defense information to an undercover agent he believed to be working for a foreign government, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) said.

  

  Jareh Sebastian Dalke, a 30-year-old Army veteran of Colorado Springs, Colorado, worked at the NSA as an information systems security designer from June 6 to July 1, 2022. According to the DOJ, Dalke used an encrypted email account to transmit excerpts of three classified documents he had obtained during his employment to an undercover FBI agent disguised as a representative of a foreign government.

  Dalke was arrested on Sept. 28, after he arrived at a public location in Denver, expecting to meet the undercover agent and transfer one additional classified document. He allegedly told the agent that he has a debt of $237,000, and asked for a “specific type of cryptocurrency” in exchange for the “highly sensitive information” he possessed. The FBI ended up sending him about $4,600 worth of cryptocurrency as a “good faith payment” to help with his financial problems.

  The information, according to an affidavit (pdf) supporting the criminal complaint, involves topics such as the threat assessment of the foreign country’s military offensive capabilities, a cryptographic program used by the U.S. government, and the threat assessment of U.S. defense capabilities, a portion of which relates to that foreign country.

  While the foreign government is not identified, the affidavit states that Dalke claimed to have reached out to the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, or SVR, to make that he was actually communicating with a foreign government entity “rather than Americans trying to stifle a patriot.”

  According to the affidavit, Dalke had expressed dissatisfaction with what the United States has become. “This country is not as great as it thinks it once was,” he allegedly said. “It is all about the businesses and their money, not anything about the people or those that serve it to include the military.”

  Dalke is charged with three violations of the Espionage Act, which makes it a crime to transmit or attempt to transmit national defense information to a foreign nation knowing the information could be used against the United States or to the advantage of a foreign nation. If convicted, he could face the death penalty or any number of years up to life in prison.

  The announcement comes as Edward Snowden, a former U.S. intelligence contractor who famously exposed the NSA’s massive domestic surveillance program in 2013 and has remained in exile in Russia ever since, was granted Russian citizenship.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 18:45

• South Korea & US Fire 4 Surface-To-Surface Missiles In Rare Response To North's Launch
  South Korea & US Fire 4 Surface-To-Surface Missiles In Rare Response To North’s Launch

  Update(1838ET): The United States and South Korea have “answered” Tuesday’s ultra-provocative North Korean launch of an intermediate-range ballistic missile which flew directly over Japan, triggering nationwide emergency alerts warning Japanese citizens to take shelter. 

  Yonhap news is reporting that allied militaries of S.Korea and the US have now launched 4 surface-to-surface missiles into the East Sea, in a clear and rare “response to the provocation” from Pyongyang, during the overnight hours (local time). There are simultaneous though unconfirmed reports that one of the South Korean missiles may have failed or crashed soon after launch:

  BREAKING: South Korea military says one of its surface-to-surface missiles crashed soon after launch – News1

  — Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) October 4, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Rumors had already been circulating for hours prior to Seoul revealing the new missile launches in response, amid ongoing joint military drills with the US, of a large explosion or fire at the south’s Gangneug Airbase.

  Could the two be directly related, or coincidence? There’s still very little confirmed at this point.

  Reports of explosion(s) at Gangneug Airbase in South Korea. Seems to be a accident according to a military official https://t.co/9cwnqWzmlcpic.twitter.com/OtAlOT5mJQ

  — Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) October 4, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  An explosions has occurred within Gangneung Airbase, South Korea. The scope and scale of the damage here is unknown, but numerous fixed wing aircraft are stationed here. pic.twitter.com/4fbCteOrE2

  — The Intel Crab (@IntelCrab) October 4, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  * * *

  Hours after North Korea launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile that soared over Japan for the first time since 2017, Japanese and US military warplanes carried out a joint exercise in response to Pyongyang’s recklessness, according to South China Morning Post, citing Japanese officials. 

  “As the security environment surrounding Japan grows increasingly severe, including North Korea’s launch of a ballistic missile that flew over Japan, the Self-Defence Forces and the US military conducted a joint exercise,” the Joint Staff said in a statement.

  Eight Japanese and four US fighter jets conducted war drills in airspace west of Kyushu, the southwesternmost of Japan’s main islands. There were no further details in the statement about what defensive maneuvers the fighter jets were exercising. 

  Joint Staff continued: Forces “confirmed their readiness and demonstrated domestically and abroad the strong determination of Japan and the United States to deal with any situation.” 

  Earlier in the day, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida held immediate discussions with the head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral John Aquilino, about the missile launch. 

  Ahead of the joint exercise, Kishida told reporters Tokyo and Washington would “conduct a joint drill” to show they’re “taking swift action.”

  South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the North’s missile flew 2,800 miles, hitting an altitude of approximately 603 miles. The missile was launched around 0723 local time on Tuesday from the North’s Chagang province, which borders China. 

  As the missile flew over Japan, reaching speeds of March 17, the government issued warnings for citizens, urging everyone in the country to seek shelter as a ballistic missile was headed their way. The missile flew for 22 minutes and past northern Japan before plunging into the Pacific Ocean. 

  

  “This is an outrageous act following the recent repeated launches of ballistic missiles and we strongly denounce it,” Kishida said. 

  North Korea has conducted more than 20 missile tests this year, more than any other year. The Kim Jong Un regime seems angry as they recently rejected denuclearization talks with the US and South Korea. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 18:38

• Putin Spox Weighs In On Elon Musk's Attempt At Ukraine Peace Deal
  Putin Spox Weighs In On Elon Musk’s Attempt At Ukraine Peace Deal

  The Russian Presidency’s office has responded to billionaire Elon Musk’s “Russia-Ukraine Peace” Twitter poll which he put out Monday, and resulted in swift backlash among pundits who accused the Tesla and SpaceX founder of mimicking “pro-Russian” talking points. Musk pushed back against the avalanche of detractors, explaining that he’s interested in exploring ways to arrive at a peaceful settlement, and not continued escalation toward nuclear war.

  Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Tuesday told reporters, “We consider it very positive that a man like Musk is looking for a peaceful way out of the situation around Ukraine,” according to Interfax.

  

  Musk had floated the idea of “redoing” last week’s referendums on the four Ukrainian territories in the east joining the Russian Federation under UN supervision. He also controversially said that as basis of a peace deal Ukraine would have to permanently cede Crimea. 

  It was particularly the Crimea aspect which sparked an immediate backlash and pile-on of pundits, journalists, and even diplomats – on up to Ukrainian President Zelensky himself – who suggested this means Musk “supports Russia”.

  According to more of Peskov’s words via Interfax (machine translation): 

  At the same time, he recalled that from the very beginning, Russia advocated that the conditions put forward by Moscow be fulfilled through negotiations. Unlike many professional diplomats, Peskov noted, Musk is still trying to find ways to achieve peace.

  “Achieving peace without fulfilling Russia’s conditions is absolutely impossible. Many ideas there deserve attention,” he said

  But Peskov underscored there can be no “redo” of the referendums, given Moscow has already moved to bestow legal recognition of the four regions’ integration into Russia.

  Vast majority of the woke mob attacking him haven’t contributed anything to the Ukrainian war effort except a blue & yellow emoji.

  — David Sacks (@DavidSacks) October 3, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “And there can be nothing else here. Today the president will sign decrees, and this will become the territory of the Russian Federation. But I repeat once again, the fact itself is very positive, when such people think, try to think logically, what could be done, to switch to a peaceful course,” Peskov said.

  To review, Musk’s poll had laid out four proposals: 

  • Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is will of the people.
  • Crimea formally part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake).
  • Water supply to Crimea assured. 
  • Ukraine remains neutral.

  After more than 2.7 million votes, of which Musk said many were bots attempting to skew the results, it’s clear that public opinion remains fiercely divided on the war, given sizeable groups on either side.

  Meanwhile Chinese state media pundit Hu Xijin pointed out the following…

  Elon Musk has released his personality too much, and he believes too much in the US and West’s “freedom of speech.” He will be taught a lesson. pic.twitter.com/nv4VU7rFIv

  — Hu Xijin 胡锡进 (@HuXijin_GT) October 4, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The final results were 40.9% “yes” on the Ukraine-Russia peace poll, and 59.1% rejecting it. And yet, tragically in terms of the current battlefield, a potential future peace deal or even ceasefire seems nowhere on the horizon at this moment.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 18:25

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Germans Panic-Buy Electric Heaters As Authorities Warn Of Winter Gas Shortage
  Germans Panic-Buy Electric Heaters As Authorities Warn Of Winter Gas Shortage

  Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

  German authorities have issued another dire warning about a possible shortage of natural gas over the winter, with fears that German households might be left in the cold, driving sales of electric heaters to soar in a spree of panic shopping.

  German Economy Minister Robert Habeck told Deutschlandfunk radio on Sept. 30 that the country is in an “extremely tense situation” when it comes to energy supply.

  “If we don’t save, if households don’t reduce consumption, we still risk not having enough gas in the winter,” he said.

  Europe’s biggest economy is struggling to cope with surging gas and electricity costs caused mostly by a collapse in Russian gas supplies to Europe, which Moscow has blamed on Western sanctions.

  

  German Economy and Climate Action Minister Robert Habeck speaks during a news conference on the future use of liquefied natural gas, in Berlin, Germany, on Aug. 16, 2022. (Lisi Niesner/File Photo/Reuters)

  Germany’s network regulator Bundesnetzagentur, which would be responsible for gas rationing in case of a supply emergency, said in a statement on Sept. 29 that household consumption was too high to be sustainable.

  Bundesnetzagentur chief Klaus Mueller called for “sustained austerity efforts,” saying that gas consumption by households and businesses in the prior week were “well above” consumption levels in prior years, calling the figures “sobering.”

  “Without significant cutbacks in the private sector, too, it will be difficult to avoid a gas shortage in winter,” he said in a statement, adding that cutbacks are needed even if temperatures continue to fall and even then there’s no guarantee of a “sure-fire success.”

  Mueller said Germany will be able get through the winter under three conditions: the country has to import more gas; the gas supplies of neighboring countries must remain stable; and each individual must cut back on gas consumption, “even if it gets even colder toward winter.”

  

  Pipes at the landfall facilities of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline in Lubmin, Germany, on July 21, 2022. (Annegret Hilse/Reuters)

  Electric Heater Sales Soar

  Meanwhile, sales of electric heaters in Germany have soared amid gas-shortage fears as winter looms.

  Sales of electric heaters in Germany, between January and August 2022, have jumped 76 percent compared to the year-ago period, according to market research company Growth from Knowledge (GfK) data provided to German news outlet Deutsche Welle.

  It comes as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz set out a $194 billion “defensive shield” that includes a gas price brake and a cut in sales tax for the fuel in a bid to protect businesses and households from the pain of soaring energy costs.

  Under the plans, which are expected to run until spring 2024, the government will introduce an emergency price brake on gas, the details of which will be announced next month. The government also is scrapping a planned gas levy meant to help firms struggling with high spot market prices.

  A temporary electricity price brake will subsidize basic consumption for consumers and small and medium-sized companies. Sales tax on gas will fall to 7 percent from 19 percent.

  In his remarks to Deutschlandfunk radio on Friday, Habeck said Germany’s gas price brake will be limited to covering 80 percent of normal household usage in an effort to encourage consumers to save energy and avoid a shortage.

  In a bid to help Germany make it through the winter, the European Commission, on Friday, approved a measure to compensate operators of five lignite-fired power plants to be on standby and ready to be activated in case of natural gas shortages.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 02:00

• The Biggest Problem China Faces Isn't Real Estate
  The Biggest Problem China Faces Isn’t Real Estate

  Authored by Christopher Balding via The Epoch Times,

  After it joined the World Trade Organization in 2000 and anchored the Chinese yuan (a.k.a. renminbi) to the U.S. dollar, China linked its economy to the United States. Enforcing a fixed exchange rate regime with strict capital controls, China benefited from large inflows and relatively low-interest rates due largely to the low-interest rate environment in the United States. What happens to the Chinese economy when interest rates increase in the United States?

  

  Sovereign currency policy faces the intractable dilemma of what economists call the “impossible trinity.” Countries can have a fixed exchange rate, free capital flow, or sovereign monetary policy but must choose only two of three. Economics textbooks give clean and clear definitions of each. Still, in reality, China tried to manipulate each and come out worse due to its attempts to manipulate the laws of economics.

  Chinese Communist Party (CCP) technocrats attempted to create a system where they could enjoy the best of the three options and leave behind the worst parts. China implemented a quasi-fixed exchange rate, which is effectively a U.S. dollar index, with tightly controlled capital flows, and a semi-sovereign monetary policy.

  What almost no one noticed with the convoluted creation of Chinese currency policy attempting to adhere to the ‘impossible trinity’ was that for the last 20 years, China benefited from business cycle synchronization with the United States. Because the yuan was tied directly to the U.S. dollar and the United States kept interest rates low, China could keep its interest rates low.

  Now that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is raising interest rates, what impact will this have on China?

  • First, the days of easy money flows to China are over. For large parts of the last 20 years, Chinese interest rates were 3-5 percent higher than the United States. With either a fixed or sem-fixed exchange rate, this gave investors in China access to easy higher returns. With portfolio returns and foreign direct investment based upon interest rate differentials between the United States and China, this drew investor capital with fixed or heavily managed exchange rates creating easy returns. Investors have soured on China as an investment destination for a range of reasons. But when baseline returns are higher in U.S. government debt without any of the China issues, the financial motivation will dry up the biggest reason to send money.

  • Second, this will place enormous upward pressure on Chinese interest rates right as China’s economy is teetering. For most of the period since 2000, the Chinese and U.S. economies have been highly correlated. This allowed Chinese interest rates to follow the United States and enjoy a sustained period of low-cost money. However, now as the Fed is seeking to tamp down inflation and overheated demand, China is suffering through its weakest economy in probably post-opening up history. Rising interest rates with a teetering banking sector, high consumer debt, and a corporate sector suffering through a wave of defaults risk hyper charging a problem into a crisis. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) faces a trade-off of whether to keep the yuan tied to the U.S. dollar and raise interest rates or reduce the link and let the yuan sink.

  • Third, rising U.S. interest rates will exacerbate capital outflow pressures from China. When Chinese government interest rates were 3-5 percent higher than in the United States, money flowed to China, seeking higher returns. Now short duration, U.S. government debt yields more than similar Chinese government debt. Add in the weak corporate sector and real estate pressures, and Chinese investors see many reasons to move their money out of China.

  For countries like Japan or the United Kingdom, capital outflows mean declines in the currency. While China boasts $3 trillion in reserves, given the size of its economy and local financial market, that $3 trillion is actually a lot smaller than it appears. The United States now earns a higher rate of safe asset return with significantly less risk, and it becomes obvious why regulators warn banks and investors about moving capital out of China.

  China tries to square the circle of financial policy by ignoring the realities of economic policy. Even as Chinese regulators recognize that the PBOC’s daily fixing price of the yuan deviated significantly from the weighted formula based upon the price of the U.S. dollar, they attempt little more than to plead with banks not to move from the official price. If U.S. interest rates remain above Chinese rates for a sustained period, this will force a change in Beijing policy in front of a set of circumstances not witnessed in modern history. Currently, Beijing is telling markets how to behave and price assets. That can only happen before markets find ways to move money or black markets that pay better prices.

  Given the expected multi-year interest rate cycle and probable resulting U.S. dollar strength, Beijing must face some hard decisions. Does it raise interest rates to stem the fall of the yuan in the face of a teetering economy? Does it defend the yuan and clamp down on international financial flows even harder, given all the outward leaks?

  Realistically, we should expect Beijing to delay any type of real decision as long as possible, given the very negative trade-offs it faces. Clamping down further on capital flows will only drive international investment away from an already unattractive destination. Raising interest rates risks taking the Chinese economy over the edge. However, doing nothing also presents risks if markets get spooked by teetering banks, falling asset prices, and a do-nothing approach from Beijing.

  The reality is there are no good options, and Beijing will avoid that reality for as long as possible.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 23:40

• Man 3D-Prints Guns For New York Buyback Event, Makes A Whopping $21,000
  Man 3D-Prints Guns For New York Buyback Event, Makes A Whopping $21,000

  Another person outsmarted a state government trying to confiscate firearms via a gun buyback program with merely a 3D printer and PLA filament. 

  A man named “Kem” printed 110 firearms on a $200 printer he got for Christmas and turned them into a gun buyback program held at the Utica Police Department in Oneida County, New York. 

  “I 3D-printed a bunch of lower receivers and frames for different kinds of firearms,” Kem told local media WKTV. 

  He drove six hours across the state to turn in the firearms he printed in August, collecting a whopping $21,000 from the New York State Attorney General’s Office. 

  “And it ended with the guy and a lady from the budget office finally coming around with the 42 gift cards and counting them in front of me … $21,000 in $500 gift cards,” Kim added. 

  WKTV contacted the state Attorney General’s Office about 3D-printed firearms, though there was no response to that question besides it being a ‘big success and that the program, in general, keeps New York families safe.’ 

  “I’m sure handing over $21,000 in gift cards to some punk kid after getting a bunch of plastic junk was a rousing success,” laughed Kem. 

  

  Asked where he got the idea, he told the local media outlet he saw people on Twitter talking about using 3D printers to make big bucks by printing guns for buyback programs. 

  Perhaps he was referring to the story of a man who recently turned in 62 3D-printed guns to Houston’s buyback program and collected $3,100. 

  Some police departments have changed policies on accepting 3D-printed firearms as more and more people take advantage of flawed buybacks. 

  Keith Taylor, an adjunct professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice, which is part of the City University of New York system, recently told Pew Research that buybacks are mostly ineffective at reducing homicides:

  “It’s a waste of resources if the entities that are sponsoring believe that it’s going to have a positive effect on reducing crime.“

  Kem concluded to the media outlet: “Gun buybacks are a fantastic way of showing, number one, that your policies don’t work, and, number 2, you’re creating perverse demand. You’re causing people to show up to these events, and, they don’t actually reduce crime whatsoever.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 23:20

• Conservatives Targets Of Political Violence Since Biden's "MAGA Republicans" Speech
  Conservatives Targets Of Political Violence Since Biden’s “MAGA Republicans” Speech

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  There have been reports of high-profile acts of political violence against Republicans and conservatives since President Joe Biden’s controversial “MAGA Republicans” speech last month.

  “Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our republic,” Biden said during a politically charged speech on Sept. 1 in Philadelphia.

  

  While speaking in front of a dimly lit red backdrop and flanked by two U.S. Marines, Biden alleged that “MAGA Republicans” also promote “authoritarian leaders” and “fan the flames of political violence” to target rights and the “very soul of this country.”

  While it isn’t clear if Biden’s speech motivated acts of vandalism or politically motivated attacks, several Republican offices across the country have been vandalized since then, including the Larimer County Republican Party in Fort Collins, Colorado; the Ottawa County Republican Party in Hudsonville, Michigan; and the Nebraska Republican Party headquarters in Lincoln, Nebraska.

  The Republican Party office in Seminole County, Florida, was vandalized after Biden claimed days before his Philadelphia speech that Republicans engaged in “semi-fascism.”

  “[Officials] came out and found that all of the signs had been hacked to pieces, our building had been vandalized, our permanent sign on the outside of the building had been torn up,” Keith den Hollander, chairman and vice chairman for Ottawa County Republican Party, told local media outlets last week. “Really disappointed to see this.”

  A pregnancy center in Oakland County, Michigan, also was targeted by vandals, who scrawled pro-abortion threats on its front door. It’s the second time that the facility was targeted in the past year, according to local media outlets.

  Other Incidents

  Also in Michigan, a pro-life canvasser was shot in Odessa Township, officials said. A 74-year-old man, Richard Harvey, was charged with felony assault and reckless discharge of a firearm, the Michigan State Police announced this past weekend.

  Joan Jacobson, 84, told MLive that she was canvassing with Right to Life, going door-to-door to ask residents to vote “no” next month on Proposal 3, a pro-abortion measure, when she was shot in the shoulder.

  Harvey came forward last week, telling WOOD-TV that he shot Jacobson accidentally as she was arguing with his wife, who he said supports abortion. Harvey said he told Jacobson to leave their property on multiple occasions.

  Also last month, 18-year-old Cayler Ellingson was killed when a 41-year-old man allegedly hit him with his vehicle and later told a 911 dispatcher that he thought Ellingson was part of an extremist Republican group, according to reports. The suspect, Shannon Brandt, was charged with murder in the teen’s death.

  

  An affidavit states that Brandt told the state first responders’ radio that he struck the pedestrian with his vehicle because the “pedestrian was threatening him,” referring to Ellingson, claiming that he was part of a “Republican extremist group.”

  However, from the moment he called 911 after allegedly hitting Ellingson, “Brandt made comments regarding the incident being intentional and not an accident,” according to the affidavit.

  An autopsy of Ellingson’s injuries indicated that he was already on the ground when he received them, and that his injuries didn’t come from being struck by Brandt’s car but from being run over. Corroborating the autopsy results, there was also little to no damage to the front of Brandt’s car, according to North Dakota Bureau of Criminal Investigation Special Agent Jeramie Quam.

  Witnesses at the scene told investigators that there was no evidence that suggested Ellingson had extremist viewpoints or that a political argument had even taken place, North Dakota Highway Patrol Capt. Bryan Niewind said.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 23:00

• Newsom Makes California 'Sanctuary State' For Transgender Children And Their Families
  Newsom Makes California ‘Sanctuary State’ For Transgender Children And Their Families

  California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) last week signed into law a bill which makes the state a refuge for transgender youth and their families.

  

  Effective Jan. 1 of next year, the measure is designed to shield trans youth under the age of 18 and their families from criminal prosecution if they travel to the Golden State to obtain ‘gender-affirming health care’ – which can include puberty blockers, hormones and surgery which many critics consider to be a form of child abuse.

  “States across the country are passing laws to demonize the transgender community, especially transgender youth and their parents,” Newsom wrote in a Thursday signing statement.

  “In California we believe in equality and acceptance. We believe that no one should be prosecuted or persecuted for getting the care they need – including gender-affirming care,” the governor wrote. “Parents know what’s best for their kids, and they should be able to make decisions around the health of their children without fear.”

  The move comes after over a dozen states have introduced legislation this year to either heavily restrict or outlaw transgender medical support for children.

  In May, Alabama enacted a felony ban on gender-affirming care to a minor, while Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) has introduced federal legislation which would make it a felony that carries up to 25 years in prison to providing said care to those under the age of 18, The Hill reports.

  Texas Gov. Greg Abbott directed state agencies through executive action in February to open child abuse investigations into the parents of transgender children. A state judge earlier this month expanded an existing order that had blocked the state from probing specific families, but a handful of investigations remain open.

  The Texas legislature, which meets during odd-numbered years, failed last year to pass a ban on gender-affirming medical care for transgender youth. -The Hill

  In his Thursday statement, Newsom decried “the hate demonstrated by these laws” which he says “has contributed to soaring suicide rates.”

  The law was introduced by Sen. Scott Wiener (D), who in June suggested offering “Drag Queen 101 as part of the K-12 curriculum.”

  This guy just gave me a bill idea:

  Offering Drag Queen 101 as part of the K-12 curriculum. Attending Drag Queen Story Time will satisfy the requirement. https://t.co/Sogz2Ag8jV

  — Senator Scott Wiener (@Scott_Wiener) June 7, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsThe bill is co-sponsored by nonprofit groups Equality California, Planned Parenthood and TransFamily Support Services, as well as California Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D), and limits the ability of out-of-state law enforcement to make an arrest or participate in the extradition of parents who travel to California so their minor child can receive gender-affirming health care.

  At least 16 states are planning to introduce similar legislation.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 22:40

• Obama's Brother Endorses Republican Doug Mastriano In Pennsylvania Governor Race
  Obama’s Brother Endorses Republican Doug Mastriano In Pennsylvania Governor Race

  Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Malik Obama, the half-brother of former President Barack Obama, has endorsed the Republican candidate for governor in Pennsylvania, Doug Mastriano.

  

  Taking to Twitter on Sunday, Malik Obama responded to a post from American conservative author and podcast host Jack Posobiec in which he suggested that the older Obama may like Mastriano and should “check him out.”

  “​​If he’s with President Trump then I’m with @dougmastriano Pennsylvania Senator PA District 33,” Obama responded to the post.

  

  Former President Donald Trump endorsed Mastriano in the primary race for governor earlier this year, saying in a statement that there is “no one in Pennsylvania who has done more, or fought harder, for election integrity than state Senator Doug Mastriano.”

  The 45th president added that Mastriano is a pro-Trump, America First candidate who will fight crime, address election problems, promote pro-life policies, protect the Second Amendment, and support the U.S. military and veterans.

  Mastriano, an Afghanistan and Iraq veteran, is facing Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro in the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race.

  Shapiro’s campaign has promised to be pro-abortion and expand access to reproductive care, and “veto any efforts to restrict mail-in voting, expand early voting, and set up automatic voter registration.”

  Recent polls suggest Shapiro is leading.

  In a separate post on Sunday, Malik Obama also weighed in on Brazil’s presidential election race between left-wing candidate and former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Conservative incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro.

  Sunday saw neither candidate receive more than 50 percent of the ballot in the race, meaning the two now head to a second-round run-off later this month.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 22:20

• Pentagon Announces Targeted Killing Of Top Somali Al-Qaeda Leader
  Pentagon Announces Targeted Killing Of Top Somali Al-Qaeda Leader

  On Monday the Pentagon announced that a successful airstrike over the weekend in Somalia has killed a top leader of the al-Shabaab terror group. The airstrike happened on Saturday outside the city of Jilib, roughly 370 kilometers southwest of Mogadishu.

  “Al-Shabaab is the largest and most kinetically active al-Qaeda network in the world and has proved both its will and capability to attack U.S. forces and threaten U.S. security interests,” an Africom statement revealing the operation said.

  

  “US Africa Command, alongside its partners, continues to take action to prevent this malicious terrorist group from planning and conducting attacks on civilians,” the statement continued.

  The Pentagon claimed that there were no civilian casualties as a result of the airstrike. Interestingly, US officials did not name the particular terror commander who had been taken out.

  However, as The Hill reports, local sources did: “the Somali Ministry of Information, Culture, and Tourism on Sunday identified the militant killed as Abdullahi Nadir.” Further, the report notes: 

  Nadir, who the Somali government said had been wanted for a “long time,” had a $3 million U.S. bounty on his head.

  Abdullahi Nadir is a co-founder of al-Shabaab, which makes this strike the biggest anti-jihadist US operation since Biden’s ordered troop redeployment in the region. 

  It remains that the group, which has been active in south and central parts of Somalia – and is a notorious and feared Islamist organization due especially to a spate of major kidnappings in recent years, is Somalia’s prime target, having declared “total war” against it, which Washington has pledged to help with.

  Biden has apparently ramped up drone strikes in Somalia over the last months. As we highlighted in August, “Since 2007, the U.S. military has carried out 260 actions in Somalia. While the Pentagon only admits to killing five civilians and wounding 11 others in a campaign it claims killed as many as 3,010 militants, Airwars estimates that 78-153 civilians, including 20-23 children, have died in U.S. attacks.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 22:00

• South Korea Vow "Stern Response" After North Korea Ballistic Missile Flies 4,500km At A Speed Of Mach 17
  South Korea Vow “Stern Response” After North Korea Ballistic Missile Flies 4,500km At A Speed Of Mach 17

  Update (9:40pm): According to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, North Korea’s intermediate-range ballistic missile flew ~4,500km with an apogee of ~970km, reaching a speed of Mach 17 before splashing in the Pacific ocean, some 2800 nautical miles east of Korea, having traveled above Japan. The JSC added that South Korea and US intelligence authorities are still analyzing more details.

  

  South Korea also said that North Korea’s consecutive missile launch provocation strengthens South Korea-US alliance’s reaction capability and intensifies North Korea’s isolation from the international community.

  South Korea slammed the North Korean ballistic missile launch, saying it deters peace and security of the Korean Peninsula and the international community, and it strongly condemns it as the launch is a clear breach of UN Security Council resolutions.

  South Korea’s president also chimed in, vowing a “stern response” to North Korea’s missile launch.

  * * *

  The Japanese government warned residents in some remote islands that are part of Tokyo as well as Hokkaido and Aomori prefectures to take shelter from a missile fired from North Korea.

  〔Live streaming〕The Japanese government is warning that North Korea appears to have launched at least one ballistic missile. There’s a possibility it’s heading toward Japan. The government is urging everyone in the country to take shelter immediately.https://t.co/QbGNxw7brV

  — NHK WORLD News (@NHKWORLD_News) October 3, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “…Hokkaido Oshima Town Toshima Village Niijima Village Kozushima Village Miyake Village Mikurashima Village Hachijo Town Aogashima Village Ogasawara Village”

  — Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) October 3, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  North Korea fired an unidentified ballistic missile toward the east side, according to text message from South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff.

  According to a subsequent update from NHK, the missile appears to have flown over and past Japanese territory, and landed in the Pacific ocean.

  JUST IN – North Korea fired a ballistic missile that flew over Japan. Missile alerts have been activated.pic.twitter.com/OvnoE1TWXL

  — Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) October 3, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  It is unclear what response, if any, Japan will pursue.

  The USDJPY dipped briefly on the news of the missile launch but has since rebounded.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 21:49

• Hunter Biden Probe To Look Into 'What Happened In 2020': Jim Jordan
  Hunter Biden Probe To Look Into ‘What Happened In 2020’: Jim Jordan

  Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  If the GOP takes a majority in the House, one of the “key elements” of its investigatory plans into Hunter Biden, the son of President Joe Biden, next year will involve looking into “what happened in 2020,” said Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio).

  

  Just weeks before the 2020 presidential election, the New York Post ran a story about Hunter Biden’s overseas business dealings in Ukraine and China, which was promptly dismissed as dubious by mainstream media outlets and suppressed on social media platforms.

  At the time, 51 former intelligence officials signed a letter claiming that the New York Post’s story had “all the classic earmarks of a Russian information operation.” In an interview with Breitbart, Jordan said that he wants to know on what intelligence the 51 former officials based their letter.

  “We had 51 former intelligence officials tell us that this was Russian disinformation. We had the FBI sit down with Facebook and say, ‘Hey, be careful, wink wink. We think there’s Russian disinformation.’ … All that was done to suppress that story, which had an impact on how people voted in the most important election we have, the election for president of the United States,” Jordan told Breitbart.

  “Did someone from The New York Times tell them something? Did someone from the FBI leak some false—was it this Timothy Thibault, who [has] since left the FBI, who suppressed that information at the FBI? I want to know. That’s pretty important stuff, so I really want to look into that angle.”

  Most of the investigative activities related to Hunter Biden would be headquartered at the Oversight Committee, with Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) expected to lead it. Jordan will continue to remain a member and chair of the Judiciary. Comer plans to look into Hunter Biden’s suspicious banking and business transactions, he added.

  Protecting Documents

  Jordan had recently signed a letter together with other Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee asking former FBI official Timothy Thibault not to destroy or alter documents related to the Hunter Biden investigation that are in his possession.

  “Whistleblowers have come to Congress alleging that you were part of a scheme to undermine and discredit allegations of criminal wrongdoing by members of the Biden family. Accordingly, we believe that you possess information relating to our investigation and we request your assistance with our inquiry,” the letter said.

  Prior to leaving the FBI last month, Thibault worked at the agency’s Washington Field Office. In July, he came under scrutiny after a whistleblower revealed that the former FBI agent had suppressed information the agency had about Hunter Biden’s financial activities.

  In July, whistleblowers revealed to Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) that FBI bureau officials labeled evidence against Hunter Biden as disinformation and that there are “systemic and existential problems” within the agency as well as the Justice Department.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 21:40

• OPEC Is Taking On The Fed… And Goldman Is Buying Every Barrel It Can Find
  OPEC Is Taking On The Fed… And Goldman Is Buying Every Barrel It Can Find

  Earlier today, Rabobank’s Michael Every was the latest to try his hand in defining the conflict that – according to Zoltan Pozsar- has defined not only 2022 but will define the collapse of the dollar and the birth of the Bretton Woods 3 regime, when the geopolitical strategist discussed Putin’s “vitriolic speech” on Friday in which, according to Every, “as Russia rails against “paper dollars and euros” and extolls the strength of commodities, can the West slash rates or do endless QE to bail out the tiny elite who own most financial assets, and in doing so prove Moscow right in the eyes of the rest of the world?”

  While Every disagrees with Zoltan on whether the dollar will fall and whether a new Bretton Woods regime will emerge, the two are in agreement that the only response the west has to the commodity shortage created by the Russia-China-Africa-LatAm axis would be either to cause a global dollar funding squeeze (by hiking rates) which however has an unpleasant habit of crushing “friendly” allies such as the BOJ and BOE, or by flooding the world with fiat in order to – as Every put it – “bail out the tiny elite who own most financial assets, and in doing so prove Moscow right in the eyes of the rest of the world.“

  But it’s not just the anti-western axis that is taking on the Fed: according to Goldman Sachs, so is the world’s most important cartel (where Russia is also a critical voice): OPEC+.

  In a note published by Goldman’s Damien Courvalin, Jeffrey Currie and the commodities team (available to pro subs in the usual place) titled “OPEC Takes on the Fed”, the Goldman strategists recap the latest developments that helped propel oil sharply higher today, namely the reports that in its first in-person meeting in Vienna this Wednesday, the cartel may cut oil output by as much as 1.5 mmb/d…

  Reports suggest that OPEC+ is considering a production cut at its meeting on Wednesday, October 5, potentially larger than 1 mb/d. While such a cut would occur amid one of the tightest markets in recorded history, and ahead of a potential decline in Russian exports later this year, such a decision could be justified by the recent large decline in prices, down 40% since their June peak, with mounting global growth concerns.

  And while the recent collapse in investor participation, which has driven liquidity and prices lower, is also a likely strong catalyst for such a cut – as it would increase the carry in oil and start to claw back investors who have instead turned to USD cash allocation following the aggressive Fed hikes – what Goldman is effectively saying is that by OPEC is taking the fight back to the Fed, which by hiking and pushing the dollar to record highs sent the price of oil to new 2022 lows. Well, just as the Fed can limit the supply of dollar bills, whether physical or electronic, so OPEC can throttle and cut the all too physical supply of oil in retaliation.

  But how exactly does OPEC plan on challenging the attractive yield on the US dollar? Simple: as Goldman writes, “an OPEC cut, by reinforcing this level of backwardation, would further increase the carry offered by a long passive front-month rolling position in Brent futures, which already offers an annualized carry of 24%.“

  As such, an OPEC vut – which Goldman has not assumed in its latest published bullish forecasts – would reinforce the bank’s bullish price view while significantly limiting the downside to prices should economic growth disappoint even relative to the bank’s modest global (ex China) 1% real GDP growth assumption for next year. As a result, Goldman – which has laid out the clash between OPEC and the Fed – reiterates both its bullish oil view as well as its preference for long crude timespread positions into year-end. In other words, at least in Goldman’s view, OPEC will fight the Fed, and win.

  While there is much more in the full note, below we excerpt the key highlights from the Goldman note:

  Historically, OPEC has often cut production in the face of weakening demand, yet it has never implemented a cut in such a tight market, with inventories at historically low levels, record strong seasonal crude timespreads and with demand remaining resilient despite the macro headwinds.

  

  While inventory dynamics have loosened in recent months (Exhibit 1), a portion of these builds (100mb+ by our estimates) are required due to the redirection of trade flows under embargo constraints. Adjusted for oil on water, we estimate that the global oil market has instead remained in a seasonally adjusted (2017-19 av.) deficit, which is expected to seasonally and cyclically tighten in the coming months. Very large and unsustainable draws in China have also exacerbated the ex-China surplus. Looking forward, we expect Russian production to decline into year-end with in turn demand expected to be supported by natural gas to oil switching in Europe and Asia.

  

  Beyond the decline in prices, we believe this cut can help remedy the large exodus of oil investors that has left prices under-performing both fundamentals and other cyclical asset classes, as we discussed in our latest oil update. Such an argument can be traced back to our past work our Commodities as an Asset Class. Equity and debt holders of energy companies get compensated for providing capital from which companies profitably produce via dividends and share price appreciation. A commodity investor has no such function, investing in a futures market which is a zero-sum game, simply acting as the counterpart to an offsetting future position. Key however is the liquidity that is provided by this investor position, typically helping offset that of a producer, willing to sell his future production at a discount given the corporate benefits of reducing earnings volatility. While such hedging flows have slowed materially this year, the investor exodus has been even larger owing to the surge in price volatility, exacerbating backwardation – and hence the compensation for long investors – in energy futures.

  An OPEC cut, by reinforcing this level of backwardation, would further increase the carry offered by a long passive front-month rolling position in Brent futures, which already offers an annualized carry of 24%. This would make such an allocation increasingly compelling relative to other forms of carry, with, unlike most FX crosses today, supportive fundamentals rooted in exceptionally low inventories. It would further increase the opportunity cost of being short oil futures: given the positive carry, the 12-mo breakeven price on front-month rolling short positioning is already $67/bbl. Similarly, high volatility and the outsized impact of producer hedging on deferred prices have combined to increase the cost of puts, with a Dec-23 ATM put position requiring a fall in that contract’s value to $61/bbl to become profitable at expiration.

  Ultimately, the ability for OPEC to conduct such a large cut is rooted in the lack of any supply elasticity, with shale activity showing signs of slowing, no spare capacity outside of GCC producers and with Russia’s production about to decline (leading it to support this time around a large cut by other producers). This is ultimately a return to the Old Oil Order, where core-OPEC acts under the rational behavior of a dominant producer with pricing power. In that sense, while exceptional, this cut is also logical as it maximizes the group’s revenues today with minimal sacrifice of future profits.

  While we take no explicit assumption on the meeting outcome for now, given our already bullish forecasts, we highlight three headline scenarios with cuts of 0.5, 1, and 1.5 mb/d respectively – and assess what they imply for prices and timespreads. Due to widespread capacity limits within OPEC+, a headline (“paper”) cut is likely to overstate significantly the effective (“physical”) curtailment of production. We show in Exhibit 4, across these three scenarios, that the effective cut is likely to be only c.50% of the headline quota figures compared to our Nov-22 supply expectations, and closer to c.2/3 of the headline when translated into balances through Dec-23 as we had assumed gradually higher production next year.

  

  As we discussed in our latest oil note, we believe the market is oscillating between its historical pricing framework (based on inventories and convenience yields) and a scarcity pricing regime (predicated on demand destruction as the only balancing mechanism). In the case of a 1 mb/d headline cut, the former regime would lead us to expect a c.$13/bbl positive impact on Brent prices over 12 months, albeit mostly front-loaded, while the latter regime suggests a distinct possibility of a c.$20/bbl spike higher when inventories deplete again and demand destruction remains the balancing mechanism of last resort.

  In Exhibit 5, we consider the effect of these potential cuts assuming prices remain near current levels (consistent with our ‘Pre-price’ balance published here). In this scenario, these OPEC+ cuts would tighten inventories to historically unparalleled lows; an unsustainable outcome in our view but one that would initially offer historically elevated roll returns of 25-40% for rolling the prompt Brent contract (Exhibit 6 and Exhibit 7) even at $85/bbl price levels. As a result, we reiterate both our bullish oil view as well as our preference into year-end front long crude timespread positions.

  

  More in the full note available to pro subs.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 21:23

• Buchanan: Is 'Our Democracy' Failing Our Country?
  Buchanan: Is ‘Our Democracy’ Failing Our Country?

  Authored by Pat Buchanan,

  Asked, “What is an American?” many would answer, “An American is a citizen of the United States.”

  Yet, at the First Continental Congress in 1774, 15 years before the U.S. became a nation of 13 states, Patrick Henry rose to proclaim that, “British oppression has effaced the boundaries of the several colonies; the distinctions between Virginians, Pennsylvanians, New Yorkers, and New Englanders are no more. I am not a Virginian, but an American.”

  Henry was saying — more than a dozen years before our constitutional republic was established — that America already existed as a nation, and he was her loyal son.

  In an 1815 letter to Thomas Jefferson, long after both men had served as president, John Adams wrote:

  “As to the history of the Revolution, my Ideas may be peculiar, perhaps Singular. What do We mean by the Revolution? The War? That was no part of the Revolution. It was only an Effect and Consequence of it. The Revolution was in the Minds of the People, and this was effected, from 1760 to 1775, in the course of fifteen Years before a drop of blood was drawn at Lexington.”

  Adams was saying that America was conceived and, as an embryonic nation, grew within the hearts of the peoples of the 13 colonies, two to three decades before the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia.

  In short, our country came to be before our republic came to be, and long before what we today call “our democracy” came to be. A country is different from, and more than, the political system that it adopts.

  France was France all through the Bourbon dynasty, the Revolution of 1789, the creation of the First Republic, the Reign of Terror, Napoleon’s First Empire and the restoration of the Bourbon monarchy — all the way to the creation of the Fifth Republic by President Charles de Gaulle.

  And beneath the carapace of the USSR, the heart of Mother Russia continued to beat. Rightly, during the Cold War, we regarded Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria as “captive nations” and captive peoples.

  The point: Neither the regime nor the political system imposed, nor some abstract idea, is the country that predates them and has first claim upon the loyalty of its sons and daughters.

  In his famous toast, American naval hero Stephen Decatur declared: “Our country! … May she always be in the right; but our country, right or wrong!”

  The crisis today for those who incessantly proclaim, “Our democracy is in danger,” is that millions of patriots are coming to see our incumbent regime, “our democracy,” as faithless and failing in its foremost duty — to protect and defend our country and countrymen from enemies foreign and domestic.

  Forced constantly by the establishment to choose between them, patriotic Americans may one day come to choose, as did their fathers, the country they love over the crown that rules them.

  

  Consider.

  The Biden regime that currently rules us has allowed 3 million migrants to invade our country in two years. These illegals continue to break our laws and cross our border at a rate of 250,000 a month.

  Among them are terrorists, robbers, rapists, murderers, cartelists and child molesters. The Biden regime has abdicated its duty to halt the invasion that is changing the ethnic, racial, religious, social and political character and composition of our American family without the consent of the American people, into whose national home these intruders are breaking with impunity.

  President Joe Biden is assuring that the future of the nation will be determined by millions of people who have in common only that they broke our laws to get into our country. Vice President Kamala Harris smugly dismisses demands to address the crisis by saying America’s southern border is “secure.”

  With this invasion has come a flood of the narcotic fentanyl, which last year took the lives of 100,000 Americans, a number equal to all the U.S. war dead in years of fighting in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq.

  Under the Biden party’s policy of softness on crime and indulgence of the criminal class, assaults, robberies, carjackings and “mass shootings,” where four victims are killed or wounded in each episode, have surged in U.S. cities.

  With America’s currency and economy in his custody, Biden has, in 18 months, run up inflation, that cancer of America’s currency, to 8%, run up the national debt to where it far exceeds the gross national product, and crashed the stock market, wiping out trillions in wealth.

  “The pandemic is over,” Biden told “60 Minutes” in September, a month when more than 400 Americans were dying of COVID-19 every day, a death rate higher than World War II and equal to the bloodiest war in U.S. history, the Civil War of 1861-1865.

  The custodians of “our democracy” are failing in the most fundamental of duties of any political system — to protect and defend the people. No failed regime can justify its permanence by claiming some inherent superiority.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 21:00

• US Coal Prices Soar Above $200 Amid Energy Crunch
  US Coal Prices Soar Above $200 Amid Energy Crunch

  US natural gas production will need to increase to maintain soaring liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports while ensuring adequate domestic supplies for households and businesses this winter. If not, then electricity generators at power plants will find NatGas uneconomical to run turbines and switch to coal-fired generators. That’s precisely what could be happening as US coal prices soar over the $200 per ton mark for the first time.  

  *US COAL PRICES RISE PAST $200 FOR FIRST TIME AMID SUPPLY CRUNCH

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 3, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Bloomberg said spot coal prices for the week ending Sept. 30 increased to $204.95 per ton. Data was sourced from US Energy Information Administration, which said this was the highest price in records dating back to 2005. 

  

  The energy-market shockwaves from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and rejiggering of Europe’s energy supply chain have dramatically increased US LNG exports to the EU this summer and fall. Domestic supplies have significantly tightened the availability for large users, which has pressured prices higher.  

  As a result, the once-mighty coal industry is returning as the global (in China and Europe) NatGas-to-coal switching could be set to intensify. The rise in coal prices may suggest stockpiling by utilities ahead of a cold winter. 

  Rising spot coal prices have been favorable for big coal companies: Peabody Energy Corp shares rose 6% to $26.25, and Arch Resources Inc. jumped 7.5% to $127.49. Both coal stocks have been in a lateral formation for much of this year and could break out to the upside if coal prices continue to rise. 

  

  The rally in spot coal and coal mining stocks comes under the most progressive White House ever that attempts to kill the fossil fuel industry to decarbonize the power grid with unreliable renewable power sources that have backfired. Worse, US-led sanctions against Russia have further sparked global energy market chaos. 

  Coal’s comeback is a remarkable turnaround for an industry that was on the brink of disaster as banks halted financing and investment firms divested from mines and coal-fired power plants, though some of this has been reversed ahead of what’s expected to be a cold and expensive winter.

  Increasing coal generation could be a move to help offset some of the power bill pains millions of Americans are facing as NatGas prices send electricity prices higher. 

  There’s one shocking figure by the National Energy Assistance Directors Association that shows about 20 million households across the country have already fallen behind on their utility bills. 

  Perhaps it’s time to suspend Biden’s decarbonization efforts to protect American families that could be financially slaughtered by energy hyperinflation if NatGas prices were to soar even more. 

  We don’t believe coal will be a long-term solution for grid stability. Instead, we’ve reminded readers that nuclear could be a big winner in the years ahead.  

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 20:40

• Investigation Into FBI 'Corruption' Impeded By Durham Investigation: Senator
  Investigation Into FBI ‘Corruption’ Impeded By Durham Investigation: Senator

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Special counsel John Durham’s investigation into the origins of the Trump–Russia collusion claims has prevented lawmakers from obtaining more information about possible misconduct at the FBI and the Department of Justice (DOJ), according to Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.).

  “Our efforts in terms of investigating Hunter Biden and corruption within the FBI was certainly hampered because we had an active criminal investigation under John Durham,” he told Newsmax on Sept. 30, noting that Durham so far has successfully prosecuted few individuals in connection to his investigation.

  

  Overall, Johnson said he’s “not particularly satisfied” with Durham’s probe and the lack of convictions, including what he described as a failure to secure a conviction for lawyer Michael Sussmann. Sussmann was accused by Durham of lying to the FBI while he was working for a law firm representing the Hillary Clinton campaign in 2016 but was acquitted in May.

  Durham was appointed in 2019 by then-Attorney General William Barr to investigate government misconduct in the FBI Crossfire Hurricane investigation. So far, the investigation has netted the conviction and sentencing of former FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith, who received probation last year.

  “And at a minimum, I certainly hope that whatever report [Durham] turns in to Attorney General Merrick Garland that that report be made public,” Johnson said. “The American public deserves to know the truth of the corruption that was occurring within the Department of Justice in the FBI.”

  Igor Danchenko, a Russian-born national who was the alleged primary source for the controversial dossier concocted by former UK spy Christopher Steele, is slated to go to trial later this month. Danchenko, who has pleaded not guilty, could face up to 25 years in prison if he’s convicted.

  Last week, U.S. District Judge Anthony Trenga declined to throw out any of the five charges filed against Danchenko after hearing arguments from Durham’s team and lawyers representing Danchenko.

  Danchenko’s lawyers argued on Sept. 29 that all the charges should be dismissed because Danchenko’s answers to the FBI were technically true, if not necessarily illuminating. But Durham said Danchenko’s statements, if examined in context rather than in isolation, will show that he knowingly lied.

  “He knows exactly what the FBI is looking for, the context of those questions,” Durham said in a hearing last week.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 20:20

• Trump Seeks $475 Million In Defamation Suit Against CNN
  Trump Seeks $475 Million In Defamation Suit Against CNN

  Former President Donald Trump filed a lawsuit against CNN tonight, claiming the so-called news outlet defamed him in an effort to reduce his chances of running for president again in 2024.

  The suit, which was filed Monday in U.S. District Court in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, alleges Trump has been a “long-time critic” of CNN, “not because CNN does a bad job of reporting the news, but because CNN seeks to create the news.”

  “CNN’s campaign of dissuasion in the form of libel and slander against the Plaintiff has only escalated in recent months as CNN fears the Plaintiff will run for president in 2024,” the suit reads.

  “As a part of its concerted effort to tilt the political balance to the Left, CNN has tried to taint the Plaintiff with a series of ever-more scandalous, false, and defamatory labels of ‘racist,’ ‘Russian lackey,’ ‘insurrectionist,’ and ultimately ‘Hitler.’”

  

  Trump seeks $475 million in punitive damages, alleging that CNN “has sought to use its massive influence – purportedly as a ‘trusted’ news source – to defame the Plaintiff in the minds of its viewers and readers for the purpose of defeating him politically, culminating in CNN claiming credit for ‘[getting] Trump out’ in the 2020 presidential election.”

  The former president notified the outlet in July of his intention to sue for “repeated defamatory statements.”

  Trump also warned he would sue other outlets he alleges have “defamed and defrauded the public” about the 2020 presidential election results.

  As a reminder, Trump had a lawsuit against 2016 Democratic rival Hillary Clinton and former top FBI officials tossed in early September by U.S. District Judge Donald Middlebrooks, who said Trump was “seeking to flaunt a two-hundred-page political manifesto outlining his grievances against those that have opposed him, and this Court is not the appropriate forum.”

  That is “a high legal bar to clear given First Amendment protections granted to the free press under the Constitution,” according to The Hill.

  “The New York Times, for example, has not lost a defamation case in more than 50 years.”

  However, as JustTheNews reports, winning such a case is not impossible, however.

  Covington Catholic High School student Nick Sandmann successfully secured considerable financial settlements from both CNN and the Washington Post for their coverage of a controversy that suggested the high schooler instigated a confrontation with an Indian activist.

  Read the full suit below:

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 20:00

• Devil's Advocates Are Investors' Best Friends
  Devil’s Advocates Are Investors’ Best Friends

  Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

  If those on the opposite side of the trade are viewed as threats rather than friends, it’s time to revise the analysis.

  

  Of the many self-generated dangers investors face, few are more dangerous than confirmation bias, the comfort we experience seeking out views that confirm our own positions and our resistance to studying opposing views.

  Confirmation bias is both self-evident and complex. We all understand the psychologically soothing feeling when others heartily agree with us, and the frustration, anxiety and sense of being threatened we experience when our core positions are challenged.

  But there’s more to it than just that. Taking a position with conviction empowers us, for by publicly espousing a forecast, prediction or position, we’re implicitly saying, “When events show I’m right, that will show I’m smarter than the average bear.”

  If we push our position and conviction to an extreme and shout it out loudly enough, we’ll attract those seeking to confirm their own biases. Confirmation bias thus generates a self-reinforcing feedback loop, as those shouting the loudest attract those who agree with them, rewarding their conviction with “likes.”

  We all know the danger of marrying your position, that is, taking not just a financial stake but also an emotional stake that eventually becomes entwined with our identity. What may have started out as a calculated risk morphs into an all-or-nothing reflection of our identity. Any challenge becomes a threat to our selfhood.

  Conviction is good, but a hedge and a Plan B are even better. Hedges and Plan Bs arise from a simple question: what if I’m wrong?

  If we want to avoid the dangers of confirmation bias and marrying our positions, Devil’s Advocates become our best friends. Devil’s Advocates delight in probing the consensus or popular view for weaknesses, and exploring how and why the consensus or popular view might be riskier than advertised, or even completely, catastrophically wrong.

  The grizzled investor who’s ridden conviction trades all the way to zero suppresses the desire to confirm biases in favor of seeking out informed Devil’s Advocates, skeptics and proponents of the opposite side of the trade.

  This is especially important in unstable, volatile eras like the present. Since every forecast and prediction (and thus every investment position) is based on previous analogs playing out, what happens when none of those analogs map to the present? Very simply, nobody knows what’s going to happen, and the appropriate level of confidence in any prediction or forecast is near-zero.

  If we cannot justify a conviction trade, then it becomes appropriate to pair every position with a hedge (to protect the position if we’re wrong) or a Plan B (escape with most of our capital intact, limit our risk in any one position or sector, stay in cash until the weather clears, etc.).

  If we listen with some detachment to informed Devil’s Advocates, we might even change our minds (gasp). No crystal ball is unclouded, but being flexible enough to change our minds when presented with evidence is a positive trait.

  In other words, the most fervent Bulls would be well-served by seeking out the most fervent Bears–and vice versa. There’s a spectrum of Devil’s Advocates, of course; some delight in puncturing everyone’s balloons, others are probing their own conviction trade for potentially fatal weaknesses, and so on.

  If those on the opposite side of the trade are viewed as threats rather than friends, it’s time to revise the analysis. It’s never comfortable to be told “you’re wrong,” but the possibility of being wrong should be uppermost in every investor’s mind, as that possibility informs calculated risk: yes, we understand this position is risky, but we’re taking it anyway because we judge the potential upside to be worth the risk.

  Anyone who helps me re-think a position and hedge risk is a friend, not a threat.

  What are some current Devil’s Advocates’ provocations? Here are a few guaranteed to make blood boil in many veins: (Remember, the key question is: what if I’m wrong?)

  1. The US dollar will only continue strengthening, crushing the euro to .80, the yen to 250, the yuan to the depths of Heck, etc. It will not crash or die, not now and not in five years or ten years.

  2. The 10-year yield is heading toward 5% and TLT toward 85. Rates are not going back to zero.

  3. Not all fiat currencies will die.

  4. Not all markets will crash.

  5. Liquidity isn’t all that matters.

  6. Burning all the deadwood (non-performing debt, phantom wealth, etc.) is necessary to re-seed the forest.

  7. Every prediction and forecast will be wrong because the past doesn’t map the present. Correct forecasts will be so rare that they will be statistically insignificant.

  8. Take control of your life, take ownership of everything you generate. Everything else–opinions, forecasts, predictions– is signal noise.

  *  *  *

  My new book is now available at a 10% discount ($8.95 ebook, $18 print): Self-Reliance in the 21st Century.

  Read the first chapter for free (PDF)

  Read excerpts of all three chapters

  Become a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 19:40

• Bitcoin-Gold Correlation Hits Highest Level In Over A Year
  Bitcoin-Gold Correlation Hits Highest Level In Over A Year

  Bitcoin’s correlation with gold hit its highest level in more than a year last week according to Kaiko Research. After benefiting heavily from the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the first quarter of the year, gold has lost all its gains and is currently down 10% YTD.

  

  Bitcoin has also declined double-digits this year dragged down by global monetary policy tightening. Despite core inflation remaining persistently high, gold has failed to act as a safe-haven asset i.e. an asset that is expected to retain or gain in value during periods of economic downturn.

  Over the past year bitcoin has been mostly uncorrelated with gold, with its correlation oscillating between negative 0.2 and positive 0.2. However, as the U.S. Dollar continues strengthening, negatively impacting both crypto and gold, the correlation between the two assets has shifted.

  Despite heavy volatility, and persistent risk weakness, most crypto sectors outperformed other traditional assets in Q3, recovering from double-digits losses in Q2. We constructed several equally-weighted baskets of assets to compute sector returns, and throughout the quarter our DeFi token basket gained 60%, bolstered by the LIDO token. Despite a sharp post-Merge pullback, ETH managed to close the quarter up more than 20%, outperforming our Layer 1 and Layer 2 baskets.

  

  One potential reason why the two alternative assets moved in the same direction is that last week, is because the Bank of England (BoE) announced a new round of bond buying, effectively re-starting quantitative easing. The BoE is the second central bank after the Bank of Japan to intervene in currency markets in September. While the move appears to have calmed markets, fears of a global contagion and further de-risking are mounting. Both U.S. and German Treasury yields increased, though at a slower pace.

  And despite the Fed’s persistence to the contrary, traders are growing increasingly confident that it is only a matter of time before the Fed joins the rest of the developed world and is forced to unleash the liquidity firehose again, in the process sending the USD crashing and its non-fiat alternatives, including gold and bitcoin, soaring to new all time highs.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 19:20

• Supreme Court Won't Hear Challenge To Gun Bump Stock Ban
  Supreme Court Won’t Hear Challenge To Gun Bump Stock Ban

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

  The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday rejected two challenges to the federal government’s ban on gun bump stocks that was handed down in the wake of the Las Vegas mass shooting in 2017.

  

  Bump stocks are devices that allow semi-automatic weapons to increase their rate of fire. The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) reversed a previous conclusion and classified bump stocks as forbidden under a 1934 U.S. law called the National Firearms Act.

  Gun rights groups, including Gun Owners of America, and a Utah-based gun rights advocate brought several cases to the nine Supreme Court justices to reverse the ban. They made no comments in declining to hear them (pdf), which were among several that the court declined to hear on Monday—the first day of the high court’s term.

  Clark Aposhian, the Utah gun-rights advocate, sued to halt the ban in 2019, challenging the ATF’s authority in reclassifying bump stocks as forbidden machine guns. After a federal judge refused to grant him an injunction early in the case, Aposhian surrendered his bump stock, pending the outcome of the litigation.

  Separately, gun owner advocacy groups including Gun Owners of America and three of its individual members, sued in federal court in Michigan to block the bump stock ban from taking effect. The Cincinnati-based 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in 2021 upheld the ban.

  After the Supreme Court’s ruling on Monday, Gun Owners of America issued a statement saying it will set a “dangerous precedent” that will give the federal government broader powers to regulate firearms.

  “This decision sets a horrible and dangerous precedent, one that will allow the ATF to further arbitrarily regulate various firearms,” the group wrote on Twitter.

  “This very same precedent is already being abused by Joe Biden to ban millions of lawfully purchased pistols even without an ACT of Congress!”

  Earlier this year, lawyers for the Biden administration urged the Supreme Court to stay out of the dispute over the ATF’s rule.

  The ATF had “determined that bump stocks are machine guns under the statue, not that the agency had discretionary authority under the statute to classify them as machine guns,” Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar argued in a court filing. “ATF’s interpretation reflects the best understanding of the statutory language,” she also wrote.

  Ban

  Bump stocks use a gun’s recoil to bump its trigger, enabling a semiautomatic weapon to fire more quickly.

  In 2017, the ATF rule banning bump stocks stipulated “that [bump stocks] are ‘machineguns’ as defined by the National Firearms Act of 1934 and the Gun Control Act of 1968” as these devices “allow a shooter of a semiautomatic firearm to initiate a continuous firing cycle with a single pull of the trigger.”

  When the rule was proposed about five years ago, the agency estimated that Americans possessed about 520,000 bump stocks. The ban required them to either be relinquished or destroyed.

  

  This undated photo provided by Eric Paddock shows his brother, Las Vegas gunman Stephen Paddock. (Courtesy of Eric Paddock via AP)

  The ban on bump stocks came into effect in 2019 as a result of the October 2017 mass shooting that left 58 dead in Las Vegas. Stephen Paddock, a high-stakes gambler, allegedly used rifles—some of which law enforcement officials say had bump stocks—to fire at a crowd of country music concertgoers.

  No motive for the mass shooting has ever been established. Investigators with the FBI later said that Paddock, who had virtually no online presence and is believed to have killed himself after the rampage, may have been inspired by his criminal father’s reputation.

  Other Cases

  In June, the Supreme Court court declared for the first time that the U.S. Constitution protects an individual’s right to carry a handgun in public for self-defense. The decision handed a victory to gun rights advocates in a nation deeply divided over how to address firearms violence.

  Previously, the Supreme Court declined to take up a separate legal effort by other gun rights groups in 2020 to overturn the ATF ban on bump stocks.

  In a court brief (pdf) filed on Aug. 1 with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit, the Firearms Policy Coalition wrote that the ATF’s redefinition of a bump stock “defies any recognizable public meaning of the language of the statute and leads to absurd results.” The group further argued that the ATF’s classification of a bump-fired rifle as a machine gun suggests that “nearly every semiautomatic firearm in existence” could fall into the new category.

  The cases that the Supreme Court rejected Monday are W. Clark Aposhian v. Merrick B. Garland, 21-159, and Gun Owners of America v. Merrick B. Garland, 21-1215.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 19:00

• US Would Lead NATO To 'Take Out Every Russian Conventional Force' If Putin Uses Nukes In Ukraine: Petraeus
  US Would Lead NATO To ‘Take Out Every Russian Conventional Force’ If Putin Uses Nukes In Ukraine: Petraeus

  Retired General and former Director of the CIA David Petraeus says it’s his belief that if Russian President Vladimir Putin used nuclear weapons against Ukraine, the United States would quickly intervene to “take out” Russian forces. He emphasized too that Washington would lead the way among a collective NATO response.

  The well-known retired Army general issued the prediction of such a major US intervention in that scenario during a Sunday interview on ABC’s “This Week,” explaining that the West must take the Kremlin’s latest nuclear rhetoric seriously, and that this is what the White House’s latest warnings of “catastrophic consequences” for Moscow is all about.

  

  “And what would happen?” show co-anchor Jonathan Karl questioned for former CIA chief. “Well, again, I have deliberately not talked to Jake about this. I mean, just to give you a hypothetical, we would respond by leading a NATO, a collective effort, that would take out every Russian conventional force that we can see and identify on the battlefield in Ukraine and also in Crimea and every ship in the Black Sea,” Petraeus responded.

  But that’s when Karl brought up the likely scenario of radiation fallout from such a Russian nuclear engagement directly impacting much of Eastern Europe, reaching nearby NATO countries. 

  “Yes. And perhaps you can make that case. The other case is that this is so horrific that there has to be a response, it cannot go unanswered. But it doesn’t expand, it doesn’t — it’s not nuclear for nuclear,” Petraeus explained. That’s when he expressly laid out that Washington has to be ready nuclear escalation if the situation demands: 

  “You don’t want to, again, get into a nuclear escalation here. But you have to show that this cannot be accepted in any way,” Petraeus said.

  While the former top Army general is of course not speaking from within the administration or in the capacity of an active government official at this point, his perspective certainly generally reflects that of the foreign policy and military establishment. 

  Petraeus went on to explain his view that Putin has no qualms about surrounding European countries and Western backers of Ukraine suffering too. “Well, he’s trying to cast this in any way that he can in a way to appear threatening, to be threatening, to try to get Europe to crack. He thinks he can out suffer Europe, if you will,” he continued.

  Watch the full interview below:

  “And, you know, the Russians have out suffered Napoleon and the Nazis and so forth. But I don’t think he’s going to out suffer Europe. Europe’s going to have a tough winter, there’s going to be very reduced flow of natural gas, but they’ll get through it and I don’t think they’ll crack on the issue of support for Ukraine.” He explained of the battlefield situation in the east that if Russian forces continue to be backed into a corner this makes Putin more unpredictable and dangerous…

  “He is losing, and the battlefield reality he faces is, I think, irreversible,” Petraeus said, adding that there is “no amount of shambolic mobilization, which is the only way to describe it, no amount of annexation, no amount of even veiled nuclear threats, can actually get him out of this particular situation.”

  Recent weeks have witnessed a flurry of ‘doom and gloom’ apocalyptic sounding headlines based on increased threatening rhetoric from Kremlin officials, including Putin himself, suggesting or implying the future possibility of resorting to tactical nukes in Ukraine if red lines are crossed. However, there’s also been no observed change in posture or movement among Russia’s nuclear forces. US intelligence says it is stepped up its surveillance and monitoring, but this has not led to any changes in the United States’ nuclear posture either.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 18:40

• Ross 'Silk Road' Ulbricht: Facing Life In Prison, Bitcoin's Resilience Inspires Me
  Ross ‘Silk Road’ Ulbricht: Facing Life In Prison, Bitcoin’s Resilience Inspires Me

  Authored by Ross Ulbricht via BitcoinMagazine.com,

  This is an opinion editorial by Ross Ulbricht, the founder of pioneering Bitcoin marketplace Silk Road, who is currently serving a double life sentence plus 40 years in federal prison.

  

  Much more is being said about Bitcoin these days than when I was put in prison. On October 1, 2022, I started my tenth year locked in this cage. Right now, as I put pen to page, the afternoon sun beams through the bars of my window and the murmur of the other prisoners snakes under my cell door.

  Over the years I have heard people say all kinds of things about Bitcoin. I have heard that “Bitcoin is dead” and that “Bitcoin is the future.” I have heard that “Bitcoin is bad for the environment” and that “Bitcoin will set us free.” But I’ve noticed that Bitcoin doesn’t seem to care what we say about it. Not the exchange, of course — that’s driven by the whims of people like all financial markets. I’m talking about Bitcoin itself.

  Bitcoin doesn’t have ears. What we say doesn’t change it. Barring a society-level catastrophe, Bitcoin will keep adding a block every ten minutes, forever. That’s the whole point. Through all the ups and downs since Bitcoin’s birth more than 13 years ago, despite the hype, despite the naysayers, despite everything, Bitcoin has never faltered.

  I can’t say the same for myself, but then again, I am merely human. A couple of years after Bitcoin got started, I made the biggest mistake of my life: I made Silk Road (an anonymous online market). Of course, at the time, I didn’t know it was a mistake. I thought it was a great idea. I thought I was putting Bitcoin to good use and giving people privacy and freedom. When illegal drugs were listed, I thought that was OK too, because I believed drugs should be legalized. Nevermind that they were outlawed and I was risking everything I held dear.

  A couple of years later, I was thrown in prison for drug trafficking and given two life sentences without parole, plus 40 years.

  I was falsely portrayed in the media as a violent drug kingpin. The story of Silk Road was reduced to a cops and robbers cliché. I more than faltered, I hit rock bottom. I’ve been here ever since.

  Bitcoin never faltered. Through the rise and fall of Silk Road, through the relentless years of my incarceration, through competition and catastrophe, Bitcoin keeps going, one block at a time, like clockwork.

  As Bitcoin has marched on, I have struggled to rejoin the world outside of my cage. Year after year, my family, friends, supporters and I have been working toward my freedom, so I can have a second chance at life. But I am tired. I am burned out, I want this nightmare to end, and I don’t know if it ever will, no matter how hard we work at it.

  Before I came to prison, I knew nothing of hard drugs. Since then, I have been locked in 8-by-10-foot cells with lifelong addicts for months on end. I’ve heard their stories and seen what’s become of them. I have faced the fact that, by making Silk Road, I played a role in damaging many lives. I don’t even think about drug war politics anymore. I just know I could never promote drug use again, whether legal or illegal. How could I, if I would never touch them myself? How could I, if I’d be horrified to learn that someone I loved became addicted? All I would think of is the men I’ve come to know whose lives have been ruined.

  I’ve been through many phases during my imprisonment: hopelessness, fear, guilt, acceptance, boredom, feverish desperation, and all the while Bitcoin keeps going. Today, I take inspiration from Bitcoin. I will keep going, day by day, just taking the next step over and over. I will keep adding the next block. Either I’ll regain my freedom or, at the end of my life, I can look back and say, “At least I tried.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 18:20

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• "2023 Will Be Year From Hell" – Martin Armstrong Warns Europe 'Could Suck The Rest Of The World Down The Tubes'
  “2023 Will Be Year From Hell” – Martin Armstrong Warns Europe ‘Could Suck The Rest Of The World Down The Tubes’

  Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

  Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong says nothing is going to get better by the end of 2022, and he is still forecasting “chaos” coming in 2023.

  

  Armstrong says the plunge in the stock market last week is all because of “extreme uncertainty.” Armstrong predicted a stock market crash two months ago and contends, “It’s not over.”

  Europe is in big financial trouble with Russian natural gas turned off as a retaliation from the sanctions. Armstrong explains:

  “In Europe, I believe they are actually deliberately doing this, and this is Klaus Schwab’s ‘Great Reset.’

  They know they have a serious problem.

  They lowered rates to below 0% in 2014. They just started raising interest rates. Meanwhile, you ordered all the pension funds throughout Europe to have more than 70% in government bonds. Then they took it negative.

  All the pension funds are insolvent. Europe is fiscal mismanagement on a grand scale. There is no way it can sustain itself, and we are looking at Europe breaking apart.”

  So, could Europe suck the rest of the world down the tubes? Armstrong says, “Oh, absolutely. Europe is the problem…”

  “The crisis in banking will start in Europe…The debt is collapsing. They have no way to sustain themselves.

  The debt market over there is undermining the stability of all the banks.

  You have to understand that reserves are tied to government debt, and this is the perfect storm.

  Yes, the (U.S.) stock market will go down short term. We are not facing a 1929 event or a 90% fall here… Europeans, probably by January of 2023, as this crisis in Ukraine escalates, anybody with half a brain is going to take whatever money they have and get it over here.”

  So, where is smart money going to go? Armstrong says, “Stocks are like gold, it is on the same side of the table and is opposite government debt…”

  “People are not going to be buying government debt. They are going to be looking at anything in the private sector. . . . People are buying whatever they can to get off the grid.”

  Armstrong says governments are borrowing and spend huge amounts of money. The Fed will keep raising interest rates to fight inflation, but Armstrong says,

  “Raising interest rates will only make things worse. We have supply shortages, and raising rates will not fill the gaps.”

  Armstrong has never been more positive on buying gold. Why? Armstrong explains,

  “We are looking at a sovereign debt default. This is what’s going on. This is why Biden will spend whatever he wants because he knows he doesn’t have to pay it back. Eventually, this is what’s going to happen. This is Schwab’s agenda.”

  Armstrong has predicted “2023 will be the year from Hell.”

  Armstrong says, “Civil unrest will only get worse” this year, and he is predicting we will have full blown war next year.

  Armstrong contends Democrats are desperate and will do things like granting illegal aliens citizenship so they can vote in the mid-term elections.

  In closing, Armstrong says, “Something is going to spark a collapse in government again. It’s going to be something, I think, in Europe where they do something drastic because they have no other choice. . . . They need war as the excuse for the defaults of all the government debt.”

  There is much more in the nearly 59-minute interview.

  Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong, cycle expert and author of the upcoming new book “The Plot to Seize Russia, Manufacturing World War III” for 9.24.22.

  *  *  *

  To Donate to USAWatchdog.com, Click Here

  There is some free information, analysis and articles on ArmstrongEconomics.com.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/02/2022 – 09:20

• VPN Usage Surges Amid Protests, Conflict, & War In 2022
  VPN Usage Surges Amid Protests, Conflict, & War In 2022

  Iran has shut down WhatsApp and Instagram in an attempt to stifle the discontent growing across the nation, following the death of 22 year-old Mahsa Amini, who died in custody after being arrested by morality police.

  Internet shutdowns are fairly commonplace in authoritarian societies on the eve of change, where governments may seek to gain control of the narrative by trying to stop communication and the sharing of information which can fuel protests and uprisings. After all, the internet can be a powerful tool for social mobilization, as shown by the Arab Spring movement of uprisings which began in the early 2010s.

  As Statista’s Anna Fleck shows in the chart below, citizens tend to circumnavigate such crackdowns by downloading virtual private networks, or VPNs, which allows them to get around restrictions to certain blocked sites.

  These do not work, however, when countries shut off basic internet completely.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  In Iran, demand for VPN downloads increased by more than 3000 percent in September, according to TopVPN100.com.

  Yet, other countries too have seen surges this year.

  For instance, Sri Lanka saw a 17,000 percent increase in VPN downloads on April 3 2022, when social media platforms Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, Instagram and WhatsApp were banned.

  The internet blackout came as the government enforced a curfew, attempting to keep protesters from hitting the streets over a disastrous economic downturn, mainly attributed to governmental mishandling, which led to major food and fuel shortages.

  Azerbaijan and Armenia, which saw clashes erupt on the border earlier this month, have also seen people on both sides of the border seek out VPNs this year, with an increase of 751 percent and 84 percent, respectively.

  Meanwhile, Russia saw an uptick of more than 2,600 percent of VPN demand and Ukraine saw a 600 percent increase since the war started in February.

  In Russia, the BBC, Deutsche Welle, and Voice of America were among a number of foreign news organizations’ websites to be blocked for disseminating what it alleged was fake news. And so this chart visualizes just how crucial cyberspace is as a forefront for warfare today.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/02/2022 – 08:45

• Gold & Geopolitics
  Gold & Geopolitics

  Gold and silver dumped and pumped this week – after a week of consolidation – against a background of a rising dollar on the foreign exchanges.

  

  As the chart below shows, silver is up around 6% since 1 September, while gold is down around 3%…

  

  But as GoldMoney.com’s Alasdair Macleod details below, Silver is extremely oversold in illiquid conditions, illustrated by our next chart.

  The level of open interest is probably the best indicator of market sentiment.

  

  At under 132,000 contracts it is as oversold as it was in early May 2020, just before the price rocketed higher from under $15, doubling in only three months. 

  Being a far larger and more liquid market, the position in gold is less obviously oversold, as our next chart suggests.

  

  Nevertheless, we can see that open interest refuses to fall below the 450,000-contract level, which suggests that a rally from here is a high probability, potentially taking out all-time highs.

  This price resilience is in the face of severe weakness in the yen, euro, pound, and yuan. It is reflected in the dollar’s trade weighted index, which continues to power ahead.

  

  Undoubtedly, there are very good reasons to get out of the other currencies and into dollars. But the dollar’s overbought condition must be extreme, exposing it to sudden and sharp bear squeezes.

  Together with the deeply oversold position for gold and silver, undoubtedly mirrored in a raft of commodities and energy contracts, we can see how traders might become very badly wrong-footed.

  There are other developments worthy of attention – this time in Russia. Following the referenda in Ukraine, Russia’s border marches westwards, and in the absence of a ceasefire, the Ukrainians supported by NATO will be attacking Russia directly. It would be an escalation into a direct conflict between Russia and NATO.

  Putin probably expects an uneasy ceasefire to follow.

  

  Meanwhile, his attention appears to be already turning to monetary and financial matters, centred on gold.

  Together with the Russian Central Bank’s reserves, Russia’s state fund and its National Wealth Fund are believed to hold about 12,000 tonnes of gold.

  Steps have been taken to “mobilise” the non-reserve gold.

  This is not for emergency war funding as some commentators think, but more likely to be so that they can be included in central bank reserves.

  Russia could then declare the largest monetary gold reserves in the world.

  Together with the recently announced Moscow gold standard and plans for a new trade settlement currency to replace the dollar, enhanced gold reserves will provide support a new gold standard for cross-border trade.

  It would replace payments to Russia for energy in weak Asian currencies, and probably force China to declare its true gold reserves as well.

  If this is Putin’s plan, the consequences for Western fiat currencies are likely to be devastating – suffering the financial equivalent of a nuclear attack.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/02/2022 – 08:10

• Labour Opens Up Massive Lead In UK Polls
  Labour Opens Up Massive Lead In UK Polls

  After prime minister Truss and chancellor Kwarteng’s disastrous mini-budget announcement last Friday, followed by intervention from the Bank of England and a rebuke from the IMF, days of radio silence from the Conservative leader were broken with a string of car crash local radio interviews and a dogged defiance to row back on any of her government‘s latest decisions.

  

  Already behind Labour in the polls since the turn of the year, Statista’s Martin Armstrong notes that the Conservatives now suddenly find themselves second to a Labour party enjoying the largest lead recorded in any published poll since the late 90s.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  One projection estimates a general election victory on this scale would equate to a loss of 304 seats for the Conservatives, and a Labour gain of 296.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/02/2022 – 07:35

• The War Has Just Begun
  The War Has Just Begun

  Via ‘Big Serge’ Thoughts Substack,

  The Winter of Yuri

  I have been attempting for several days to collect my thoughts on the Russo-Ukrainian War and condense them into another analysis piece, but my efforts were consistently frustrated by the war’s stubborn refusal to sit still. After a slow, attrititional grind for much of the summer, events have begun to accelerate, calling to mind a famous quip from Vladimir Lenin: “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”

  

  “You should know, by and large, we haven’t even started anything yet in earnest.”

  This has been one of those weeks. It began with the commencement of referenda in four former Ukrainian oblasts to determine whether or not to join the Russian Federation, accompanied by Putin’s announcement that reservists would be called up to augment the force deployment in Ukraine. Further excitement bubbled up from the Baltic seabed with the mysterious destruction of the Nordstream pipelines. Nuclear rumors circulate, and all the while the war on the ground continues.

  In all, it is clear that we are currently in the transitional period towards a new phase of the war, with higher Russian force deployment, expanded rules of engagement, and greater intensity looming. Season 2 of the Special Military Operation looms, and with it the Winter of Yuri:

  

  Let’s try to process all the developments of the past few weeks and get a handle on the trajectory in Ukraine.

  Annexation

  The keystone event at the heart of recent escalation was the announcement of referenda in four regions (Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson) to determine the question of entry into the Russian Federation. The implication of course was that if the referenda succeeded (a question that was never in doubt), these regions would be annexed to Russia. While there were some rumors circulating that Russia would delay the annexation, this was never really plausible. To allow these regions to vote in favor of joining Russia only to leave them out in the cold would be monumentally unpopular and raise serious doubts about Russia’s commitment to its people in Ukraine.

  Formal annexation is a certainty, if not on September 30th as rumored, then within the next week.

  All of this is rather predictable, and completes the first layer of annexations which I noted in previous analysis. The reasoning is not particularly complex: clearing the Donbas and securing Crimea were the absolute minimum Russian objectives for the war, and securing Crimea requires both a land bridge with road and rail connections (Zaporizhia oblast) and controlling Crimea’s water sources (Kherson). These minimum objectives have now been formally designated, though of course Ukraine maintains some military activity on these territories and will have to be dislodged.

  

  The Big Serge Annexation Map: Phase 1 Complete

  I think, however, that people lost focus as to what the referenda and the ensuing annexation means. Western talking points focused on the illegitimacy of the votes and the illegality of any annexation, but this is really not very interesting or important. The legitimacy of annexation is derived from whether or not Russian administration can succeed in these regions. Legitimacy, as such, is merely a question of efficacy of state power. Can the state protect, extract, and adjudicate?

  In any case, what is far more interesting than the technicalities of the referenda is what the decision to annex these regions says about Russian intentions. Once these regions become formally annexed, they will be viewed by the Russian state as sovereign Russian territory, subject to protection with the full range of Russian capabilities, including (in the most dire and unlikely scenario) nuclear weapons. When Medvedev pointed this out, it was bizarrely spun as a “nuclear threat”, but what he was actually trying to communicate is that these four oblasts will become part of Russia’s minimum definition of state integrity – non-negotiables, in other words.

  I think the best way to formulate it is as such:

  Annexation confers a formal designation that a territory has been deemed existentially important to the Russian state, and will be contested as if the integrity of the nation and state is at risk.

  Those fixating on the “legality” of the referenda (as if such a thing exists) and Medvedev’s supposed nuclear blackmail are missing this point. Russia is telling us where it currently draws the line for its absolute minimum peace conditions. It’s not walking away without at least these four oblasts, and it considers the full range of state capabilities to be in play to achieve that goal.

  Force Generation

  The move to hold referenda and eventually annex the southeastern rim was accompanied with Putin’s long-awaited announcement of a “partial mobilization”. Ostensibly, the initial order calls up just 300,000 men with previous military experience, but the door is left upon for further surges at the discretion of the president’s office. Implicitly, Putin can now ramp up the mobilization as he sees fit without needing to make further announcements or sign more paperwork. This is similar to American Lend-Lease or the “Authorization for Use of Military Force” in America, where the door is opened once and the President is then free to move at will without even informing the public.

  It was increasingly clear that Russia needed to raise its force deployment. Ukraine’s successful drive to the Oskil River was made possible by Russian economy of force. The Russian army had completely hollowed out Kharkiv Oblast, leaving only a thin screening force of national guardsmen and LNR militia. In places where the Russian Army has chosen to deploy sizeable regular formations, the results have been disastrous for Ukraine – the infamous Kherson Counteroffensive turned into a shooting gallery for Russian artillery, with the Ukrainian Army haplessly funneling men into a hopeless bridgehead at Andriivka.

  

  A Shooting Gallery

  So far in this war, Ukraine has achieved two big successes retaking territory: first in the spring, around Kiev, and now the late summer recapture of Kharkov Oblast. In both cases, the Russians had preemptively hollowed out the sector. We have yet to see a successful Ukrainian offensive against the Russian Army in a defensive posture. The obvious solution, therefore, is to raise the force deployment so that it is no longer necessary to hollow out sections of the front.

  The initial surge of 300,000 men is being a bit muddled. Not all of the men being called up will be sent to Ukraine. Many will remain in Russia on garrison duty so that existing ready formations can be rotated to Ukraine. Therefore, it is likely that we will see more Russian units arriving in theater much sooner than expected. Additionally, many of the units originally committed to Ukraine have been off the front for refitting and resting. The scale and pace of Russia’s new force generation is likely to shock people. On the whole, the timing of Russia’s manpower surge coincides with the depletion of Ukrainian capabilities.

  Ukraine spent the summer sending its 2nd tier conscripts to the front in the Donbas as it lovingly collected NATO-donated weapons and trained units in the rear. With generous NATO help, Ukraine was able to accumulate forces for two full scale offensives – one in Kherson (which failed spectacularly) and one in Kharkov (which succeeded in pushing past the Russian screening force and reaching the Oskil). Much of that carefully accumulated fighting power is now gone or degraded. Rumors circulated of a third offensive towards Melitipol, but Ukraine does not seem to have the combat power to achieve this, and strong Russian forces are in the region behind prepared defensive lines.

  On the whole, therefore, Ukraine’s window for offensive operations has closed, and what remains is closing quickly. The last zone of intense Ukrainian operations is around Lyman, where aggressive Ukrainian attacks have so far failed to either storm or encircle the town. It is still possible that they take Lyman and consolidate control of Kupyansk, but this would likely represent the culmination of Ukrainian offensive capability. For now, the area around Lyman is a killing zone that exposes attacking Ukrainian troops to Russian air and ground fires.

  The large scale view of force ratios is as follows:

  Ukraine has spent much of the combat power that they accumulated with NATO help during the summer, and will have an urgent need to reduce combat intensity for refitting and rearming at precisely the same time that Russian combat power in the theater begins to surge.

  Simultaneously, NATO’s ability to arm Ukraine is on the verge of exhaustion. Let’s look at this more closely.

  Depleting NATO

  One of the more fascinating aspects of the war in Ukraine is the extent to which Russia has contrived to attrit NATO military hardware without fighting a direct war with NATO forces. In a previous analysis I referred to Ukraine as a vampiric force which has reversed the logic of the proxy war; it’s a black hole sucking in NATO gear for destruction.

  There are now very limited stockpiles to draw from to continue to arm Ukraine. Military Watch Magazine noted that NATO has drained the old Warsaw Pact tank park, leaving them bereft of Soviet tanks to donate to Ukraine. Once these reservoirs are fully tapped, the only option will be giving Ukraine western tank models. This, however, is much harder than it sounds, because it would require not only extensive training of tank crews, but also an entirely different selection of ammunition, spare parts, and repair facilities.

  Tanks are not the only problem, however. Ukraine is now staring down the barrel (heh heh) of a serious shortage of conventional tube artillery. Earlier in the summer, the United States donated 155mm howitzers, but with stockpiles of both guns and shells dwindling, they’ve recently been forced to turn to lower caliber towed trash. After the announcement of yet another aid tranche on September 28th, the USA has now put together five consecutive packages which do not contain any conventional 155mm shells. Shells for Ukraine’s Soviet vintage artillery were running low as early as June.

  In effect, the effort to keep Ukraine’s artillery arm functioning has gone through a few phases. In the first phase, Warsaw Pact stockpiles of Soviet shells were drained to supply Ukraine’s existing guns. In the second phase, Ukraine was given mid-level western capabilities, especially the 155mm howitzer. Now that 155mm shells are running low, Ukraine has to make do with 105mm guns which are badly outranged by Russian howitzers and will be, in a word, doomed in any kind of counterbattery action.

  As a substitute for adequate tube artillery, the latest aid package does include 18 more of the internet’s favorite meme weapon – the HIMARS Multiple Launch Rocket System. What is not explicitly mentioned in the press release is that the HIMARS systems don’t exist in current US inventories and will have to be built, and are thus unlikely to arrive in Ukraine for several years.

  The increasing difficulties in arming Ukraine coincide with the rapid closing of Ukraine’s window of operational opportunity. The forces accumulated over the summer are degraded and fought out, and every subsequent rebuild of the Ukrainian first tier forces will become harder as manpower is destroyed and NATO arsenals are depleted. This depletion comes precisely as Russian force generation is surging, foretelling the Winter of Yuri.

  The Winter War

  Anyone who expects the war to slow down during the winter is in for a surprise. Russia is going to launch a late autumn/winter offensive and achieve significant gains. The arc of force generation (both Russia’s increasing force accumulation and Ukraine’s degradation) coincide with the approach of cold weather.

  Let’s make a brief note about combat in the cold. Russia is perfectly capable of waging effective operations in the snow. Going back to World War Two, the Red Army was more than capable of offensive success during the winter, starting in 1941 with the general counteroffensive at Moscow, again in 1942 with the destruction of the German 6th Army at Stalingrad, and in 1943-44 with two successful large scale offensives beginning in the winter. Now, of course World War Two is not directly applicable in all ways, but we can establish that from a technical standpoint there is a clearly established capability to wage operations in cold weather.

  We also have more recent examples. In 2015, during the first Donbas War, LNR and DNR forces launched a pincer operation which successfully encircled a Ukrainian battalion at the Battle of Debaltseve. And, of course, the Russo-Ukrainian War begin in February, when much of northern Ukraine was below freezing temperatures.

  

  Nice Move

  Winter weather actually favors a Russian offensive for multiple reasons. One of the paradoxes of military operations is that freezing weather actually enhances mobility – vehicles can get stuck in mud, but not on frozen ground. From 1941-43, German troops celebrated the arrival of spring, because the thaw promised to bog the Red Army down in mud and slow their momentum. The winter death of foliage also reduces the cover available to troops in a defensive posture. And, of course, cold weather favors the side with more reliable access to energy.

  As for where Russia will choose to commit its newly generated forces, there are four realistic possibilities, which I will enumerate in no particular order:

  1. Reopening the Northern Front with an operation around Kharkov. The attractiveness of this option is clear. A Russian move in force towards Kharkov would immediately collapse all of Ukraine’s gains towards the Oskil by compromising their rear areas.

  2. An offensive on Nikolayev out of the Kherson region. This would move further towards the goal of a landlocked Ukraine, and would take advantage of the fact that Ukrainian forces in this region are badly chewed up after their own failed offensive.

  3. Massive commitment to the Donbas to finish the liberation of DNR territory by capturing Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. This is less likely, as Russia has demonstrated comfort with the slow tempo of operations on this front.

  4. A push north from the Melitopol area towards Zaparozhia. This would safeguard the nuclear powerplant and end any credible threats to the land bridge to Crimea.

  Other possibilities I regard as unlikely. A second advance on Kiev would make little operational sense, as it would not support any of the existing fronts. I would expect action around Kiev only if the new force generation is significantly larger than the headline number of 300,000. Otherwise, Russia’s winter offensives are likely to be concentrated on mutually supporting fronts. I think some movement to reopen the northern is likely, as it would completely compromise Ukraine’s gains in the Izyum-Kupyansk direction. There are rumors that forces are being moved into Belarus, but I actually think the Chernigov-Sumy axis would be more likely than a new Kiev operation, as it could be supportive of an offensive on Kharkov.

  

  Potential Axes of Winter Advance (Base Map Credit: @War_Mapper)

  On the broadest level, it is clear that Ukraine’s window to conduct offensive operations is nearing its close, and the force generation ratios on the ground are going to swing decisively in Russia’s favor through the winter.

  Nordstream and Escalation

  As we were pondering these developments on the ground, yet another plotline emerged underwater. The first hint that something was amiss was the news that pressure in the Nordstream 1 pipeline was dropping mysteriously. It was then revealed that the pipeline – along with the non-operational Nordstream 2 – had suffered serious damage. Swedish seismologists recorded explosions on the floor of the Baltic Sea, and it was revealed that the pipelines are heavily damaged.

  Let’s be frank about this. Russia did not blow up its own pipelines, and it is ludicrous to suggest that they did. The importance of the pipeline to Russia lay in the fact that it could be switched on and off, providing a mechanism for leverage and negotiation vis a vis Germany. In the classic carrot and stick formulation, one cannot move the donkey if the carrot is blown up. The *only* feasible scenario in which Russia might be responsible for the sabotage would be if some hardliner faction within the Russian government felt that Putin was moving too slowly, and wanted to force an escalation. This would imply, however, that Putin is losing internal control, and there is no evidence whatsoever for such a theory.

  And so, we return to elementary analysis, and ask: Cui bono? Who benefits? Well, considering Poland celebrated the opening of a new pipeline to Norway only a few days ago, and a certain former Polish MP cryptically thanked the United States on Twitter, it is fair to make a few guesses.

  

  The first lesson of doing crimes is not to brag about it on twitter

  Let us briefly meditate on the actual implications of Nordstream’s demise.

  1. Germany loses what little autonomy and flexibility it had, making it even more dependent on the United States.

  2. Russia loses a point of leverage over Europe, reducing the inducements to negotiation.

  3. Poland and Ukraine become even more critical transit hubs for gas.

  Russia clearly perceives this as a bridge burning move of sabotage by NATO, designed to back them into a corner. The Russian government has decried it as an act of “international terrorism” and argued that the explosions occurred in areas “controlled by NATO” – the concatenation of these statements is that they blame NATO for an act of terrorism, without explicitly saying that. This precipitated another meeting of the Russian National Security Council.

  Many western nations have advised their citizens to leave Russia immediately, suggesting they are worried about escalation (this coincides with Ukraine’s unhinged claim that Russia may be about to use nuclear weapons). For the time being, I expect Russian escalation to remain confined to Ukraine itself, likely coinciding with the deployment of additional Russian ground forces. If Russia feels compelled to undertake an out of theater escalation, targeting American satellites, digital infrastructure, or forces in Syria remain the most likely option.

  On the Precipice

  I am fully cognizant that my views will be spun as “coping” after Ukraine’s gains in Kharkov oblast, but time will tell out. Ukraine is on its last legs – they drained everything usable out of NATO stockpiles to build up a first tier force over the summer, and that force has been mauled and degraded beyond repair just as Russia’s force generation is set to massively increase. Winter will bring not only the eclipse of the Ukrainian army, the destruction of vital infrastructure, and the loss of new territory and population centers, but also a severe economic crisis in Europe. In the end, the United States will be left to rule over a deindustrialized and degraded Europe, and a rump Ukrainian trashcanistan sequestered west of the Dnieper.

  For now, though, we are in the interregnum as the last flames of Ukraine’s fighting power flickers out. Then there will be an operational pause, and then a Russian winter offensive. There will be several weeks where nothing happens, and then everything will happen.

  During that operational pause, you may be tempted to ask – “is it done, Yuri?”

  No, Comrade Premiere. It has only begun.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/02/2022 – 07:00

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• Snowden Didn't "Flee to Russia": Obama Trapped Him There
  Snowden Didn’t “Flee to Russia”: Obama Trapped Him There

  Authored by Brian McGlinchey via Stark Realities

  When Russian President Vladimir Putin granted citizenship to NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden on Monday, the news revived a long-simmering debate about the propriety of his revelations of U.S. government secrets. At the same time, it prompted reiterations of a widely-embraced falsehood: that Snowden “fled to Russia.”

  The disinformation-trafficking wasn’t limited to random people on social media. Among others, The New York Times, The Guardian, ABC, Christian Science Monitor and Canada’s CBC all asserted in the past week that Snowden “fled to Russia” in 2013 after revealing that the United States government had created a mass surveillance regime targeting its own citizens, in violation of the U.S. Constitution’s Fourth Amendment.

  What many people don’t realize — and what some people both inside the government and out of it purposefully ignore — is that Snowden wasn’t traveling to Russia, but merely through it.

  When he left Hong Kong after meeting with journalists Glenn Greenwald and Laura Poitras and turning over hundreds of thousands of stolen files, Snowden’s ultimate destination was Quito, Ecuador.

  It’s important to note that Snowden says that, before leaving, he destroyed his cryptographic keys that provided him access to the files, and didn’t bring any copies of the files with him.

  At the time, the Ecuadoran government was providing political asylum to Wikileaks publisher Julian Assange at the country’s London consulate, and Snowden hoped Ecuador would provide him asylum as well.

  Snowden’s itinerary was arranged such that he wouldn’t land in countries that would extradite him to the United States. Nor would he cross U.S. airspace along the way. He was to make four flights in all, taking him from Hong Kong to Moscow, then Havana, Cuba; Caracas, Venezuela and finally Quito.

  However, upon arriving in Moscow, Snowden was escorted by Russian security officials to an airport conference room, where they informed him that, while he was flying to Moscow, the Obama administration had invalidated his passport.

  He’d spend the next 40 days at the Sheremetyevo airport, during which he applied to 27 countries for political asylum. “Not a single one of them was willing to stand up to American pressure,” Snowden wrote in his memoir, Permanent Record, “with some countries refusing outright, and others declaring they were unable to even consider my request until I arrived in their territory — a feat that was impossible.”

  Seemingly tired of the spectacle, Putin granted Snowden asylum, and he’s been in Russia ever since. The essential point, however, is that Snowden is in Russia because the Obama administration deliberately trapped him there.

  In 2013 and ever since, rabid Snowden detractors have failed to acknowledge how that move by the Obama White House belied its own assertions that Snowden was a traitor who traveled to Moscow with highly valuable intelligence information and was at high risk of turning it over to the Russian government.

  Think about it: if Obama officials believed Snowden had possession of an extremely sensitive archive of top secret documents – as they insist but Snowden denies – why would they *want to trap him in Russia*?

  Because they knew it’d be easy to convince idiots he was a Kremlin spy.

  — Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) September 26, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Aside from revealing the unconstitutional surveillance regime, Snowden’s disclosures also proved that Director of National Intelligence James Clapper had committed perjury in testifying before Congress:

  Clapper didn’t merely escape perjury charges, termination or a shameful resignation — CNN actually put him on the payroll as a “national security analyst,” giving him a pulpit from which to continue spewing all manner of falsehoods on behalf of the national security establishment, on everything from Russiagate to Hunter Biden’s laptop.

  Meanwhile, though Snowden has been vindicated many times over — including a 2020 federal court ruling that the NSA’s surveillance program violated the Constitution — he’s compelled to live in Russia to escape prosecution under the Espionage Act of 1917.

  Which brings us to another myth that goes hand-in-hand with “fled to Russia” falsehood: Detractors routinely say Snowden was a “coward” to flee the United States at all.

  The noble course of action, they say, would be to go to trial in America and let a jury of his peers decide whether he was justified in exposing his government’s crimes by leaking secret documents to journalists.

  However, as government-whistleblower attorney Jesselyn Radack explained in a Wall Street Journal op-ed, that’s not how Espionage Act prosecutions work:

  “The Espionage Act has morphed into a strict liability law, which means the government does not have to show the defendant had a felonious intent. A defendant cannot argue that the information was improperly classified…The motive and intent of the whistleblower are irrelevant. And there is no whistleblower defense, meaning the public value of the material disclosed does not matter at all.”

  In short, the only way for Snowden to be treated justly is for him to be pardoned or given a plea deal with a very short sentence.

  As the intelligence community continues to wield excessive influence on our government, neither outcome is likely anytime soon.

  Stark Realities undermines official narratives, demolishes conventional wisdom and exposes fundamental myths across the political spectrum. Read more and subscribe at starkrealities.substack.com

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 23:30

• A Global Overview of Human Migration
  A Global Overview of Human Migration

  According to the latest data published by the United Nations, the number of international migrants amounted to 281 million in 2020, which is equivalent to 3.6 percent of the world’s population.

  By “migrant”, it is meant: Any person who, leaving his or her usual place of residence, crosses an international border, regardless of the nature and cause of the movement or the duration of the stay.

  The census therefore covers a wide range of circumstances and includes both war and economic refugees – estimated at more than 82 million – and voluntary migrants: workers, students, retirees, etc.

  This map by Statista’s Martin Armstrong provides an overview of the migration trends in the world…

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  It shows the annual net migration (arrivals minus departures) of all countries and territories, relative to their population size.

  Between 2017 and 2021, the regions of the world that lost the largest share of people via emigration were the Marshall Islands and American Samoa in the Pacific Ocean, followed by Lebanon and Venezuela.

  During this period, these four territories, some of which are experiencing severe economic hardship, experienced an average net loss of 28 to 42 inhabitants per 1,000 people per year.

  In contrast, the regions that attracted the most migrants relative to their population size were the New Zealand-administered Tokelau Archipelago, the Caribbean tax haven of the Turks and Caicos Islands and, in Europe, Malta.

  For these three places, the average annual net migration was between 22 and 45 additional persons per 1,000 inhabitants.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 23:00

• Firearm Background-Checks Now Report Home Addresses Of Gun Owners
  Firearm Background-Checks Now Report Home Addresses Of Gun Owners

  Submitted by Gun Owners of America,

  Gun Owners of America has obtained an email from the FBI regarding changes to the NICS background check system to implement gun control. 

  On Monday, September 26, 2022, federal firearms licensees (FFL) will experience… new features of the FBI’s NICS transaction process. One… change is tied to the passage of the NICS Denial Notification Act of 2022. 

  Collection of Buyer’s Address— The NICS Denial Notification Act of 2022 requires the FBI’s NICS Section to notify state, local, or tribal law enforcement of all FBI NICS denied transactions within 24 hours. The FBI must provide notification to law enforcement based upon the location of the FFL and if different, the purchaser’s address. To support the determination of what local agency should receive the notification, FFLs will be required to provide the buyer’s complete address to NICS as recorded on the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives Form 4473 when transactions are denied or delayed. The address information will be required before the status can be provided or retrieved either by the NICS contracted call center or via the NICS E-Check.  

  

  That matches up closely with the NICS Denial notification act, which read: 

  “If the national instant criminal background check system…provides notice… that” a transferee is prohibited person then the DOJ shall “report to the local law enforcement [and] the State or Tribe of residence of the person—… within 24 hours”  

  This change would require that an investigation be launched into every background check denial, even though nine times out of 10, the NICS system has falsely denied law-abiding citizens from exercising their rights.  

  This is a significant change to the system, as, before the passage of the NICS denial notification act, dealers were only required to provide the state of residence of a customer. Now they will have to provide the transferee’s full address after the NICS system processes the background check in the event of a delay or denial.

  Delays in background checks are extremely common. Sometimes it’s as simple as having a common name or having a security clearance with the federal government.

  Check out GOA’s Coverage of this new gun control in the video above.

  GOA fought against the NICS Denial Notification Act in March, but since 2019, we’ve been fighting against all gun control in the Violence Against Women Act, also known as VAWA.  

  The NICS Denial Notification Act was among the gun control to pass this last congress. That’s because certain Republicans backstabbed gun owners, and for all the horrible gun control removed from the bill, some gun control remained: 

  • Sections 1101-1102: the NICS Denial Notification Act to launch criminal investigations into firearm background check denials—even though 9 out of 10 times the system falsely denies a law-abiding citizen. 
  • Section 1103: funding for ATF to deputize local police to enforce federal gun laws, especially to undermine Second Amendment Protection Act (SAPA) states. 

  Eighteen Republican senators voted with anti-gun Democrats in favor of the final passage of gun control. 

  These Senators believe they were given political “cover” as other ostensibly “pro-gun” groups backed the compromise by refusing to oppose the language publicly. 

  *  *  *

  We intend to fight gun control in that as well, but we need your help.  

  Congress may be immoral, but they’re also lazy.  

  You need to tell them they won’t get an easy vote or break if they stuff gun control in a government funding bill. 

  Our team in Washington, DC, couldn’t do the work we do or have the success without your grassroots activism.  

  We’ll hold the line for you in Washington.

  We are No Compromise. Join the Fight Now.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 22:30

• Visualizing The Global Wealth Pyramid
  Visualizing The Global Wealth Pyramid

  The level of financial inequality around the world is staggering…

  As Statista’s Martin Armstrong reports, according to a new Credit Suisse report, 47.8 percent of global household wealth is in the hands of just 1.2 percent of the world’s population.

  Those 62.5 million individuals control a staggering $221.7 trillion, as can be seen on this infographic…

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  Below that, 627 million people own $176.5 trillion, 38.1 percent of global wealth, despite accounting for just 11.8 percent of the adult population.

  The base of the pyramid is the most poignant, and it shows how 2.8 billion people (53.2 percent of the world’s population) share a combined wealth of $5 trillion – which is just 1.1 percent of total global wealth.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 22:00

• Navy Attempting To Remove Sailor Who Refused Vaccine Under 'Pretext' Of Attempted Desertion: Attorney
  Navy Attempting To Remove Sailor Who Refused Vaccine Under ‘Pretext’ Of Attempted Desertion: Attorney

  Authored by J.M. Phelps via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Navy Petty Officer Second Class Kristin Fregeau is being discharged from the Navy for attempted desertion, but her attorney contends that this is a cover for separating the officer because she had a religious objection to the vaccine mandate.

  “The Navy couldn’t separate [Fregeau] for vaccine refusal, so they drummed up a story about attempted desertion,” Sean Timmons, Freugeau’s attorney, told The Epoch Times.

  

  The attempted desertion charge arose from Fregeau leaving her base for 20 days in December 2021 without prior approval.

  But Timmons said the petty officer moved to Tennessee during that period to remove her child from moldy living conditions at the base that was harmful to their health.

  “She moved her family under duress, and out of necessity, away from mold-infested government quarters to move her children to reasonable living accommodations,” the attorney said.

  Fregeau’s Story

  In March 2020, Fregeau was temporarily assigned to shore duty at Navy Air Logistics Office (NALO) in New Orleans where she could receive help for dealing with postpartum depression. By November 2020, she had checked herself into a hospital program for mental health issues and began to address her struggles with some success.

  After returning to her previous work assignment at NALO, she began to experience mold issues at her residence. After many encounters and arguments with the housing administration, Fregeau said the ducts were cleaned and the leaking air conditioning unit was replaced.

  In the months prior to the mold issue being addressed, Fregeau’s first child began having asthma-like symptoms. They subsided following the work on the home’s duct and air conditioner. But four months later, the mold—although not visible at this time—returned in the wake of Hurricane Ida in September 2021, Fregeau said.

  “Our daughter became physically ill again and was not getting better,” the petty officer said. “She was coughing uncontrollably, was in a constant state of congestion and unable to sleep.”

  Out of concern for her daughter’s health, Fregeau took the child to a pediatrician who advised “it was an environmental mold issue and recommended we get out of the house,” she said. Rather than going through the ordeal again dealing with housing and waiting for the mold issue to be addressed, she and her husband decided to move out.

  The Fregeau family struggled to find immediate housing in the area due to Hurricane Ida. And that’s when another issue cropped up to add to Fregeau’s difficulties. In November 2021, she was denied religious accommodation for the COVID-19 vaccine mandate and the process to separate her from the Navy would begin.

  ‘Absent Under Duress’: Lawyer

  According to Timmons, a “confluence of tough events” led Fregeau to act “out of necessity and under duress” in moving her family off the base.

  “She moved her children to Tennessee to be with family while she sorted things out,” he said. This is what ultimately led to an alleged 20-day unauthorized absence, beginning Dec. 2, 2021.

  Timmons acknowledged Fregeau should have gotten “express approval” ahead of time. Because she didn’t, he admitted, “she is culpable and at fault.” However, the attorney went on to say that service members are rarely discharged for being absent without leave (AWOL) for a couple of weeks.

  “She was absent under duress, only concerned about the care, safety, and welfare of her children,” he said.

  “She didn’t miss any movement, mobilization, or deployment; she missed some office work,” he added. “But now that the Navy cannot separate her for vaccine refusal, they’re putting forth this bogus pretext that she’s being separated for attempted desertion.”

  Timmons argues that the elements for an unauthorized absence have not been met. Article 86 of the Uniform Code of Military Justice allows a service member to withdraw if it’s under necessity and under duress, he said, adding that “desertion requires being gone more than 30 days.”

  Fregeau said, “Once I pulled myself together, I didn’t feel comfortable going back to work without any legal representation, but I wanted to make things right and return to work.” With the help of a previous attorney, she checked back into command on Dec. 20, and “it was business as usual.”

  At this time, Fregeau said, “I was never sat down, and an investigation never took place to talk about any type of non-judicial punishment or anything of that sort.” However, she said, the Navy would continue the process of separating her for refusing to take the vaccine.

  But since then, the Navy did go ahead with pressing for non-judicial punishment (NJP).

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 21:30

• 'Range Anxiety' – How Far Can An EV Go On One Charge?
  ‘Range Anxiety’ – How Far Can An EV Go On One Charge?

  EV adoption has grown rapidly in recent years, but many prospective buyers still have doubts about electric car ranges.

  In fact, as Visual Capitalist’s Govind Bhutada details below, 33% of new car buyers chose range anxiety – the concern about how far an EV can drive on a full charge – as their top inhibitor to purchasing electric cars in a survey conducted by EY.

  So, how far can the average electric car go on one charge, and how does that compare with the typical range of gas-powered cars?

  

  The Rise in EV Ranges

  Thanks to improvements in battery technology, the average range of electric cars has more than doubled over the last decade, according to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

  

   

  *Max range for EVs offered in the United States.
  Source: IEA, U.S. DOE

  As of 2021, the average battery-powered EV could travel 217 miles (349 km) on a single charge. It represents a 44% increase from 151 miles (243 km) in 2017 and a 152% increase relative to a decade ago.

  Despite the steady growth, EVs still fall short when compared to gas-powered cars. For example, in 2021, the median gas car range (on one full tank) in the U.S. was around 413 miles (664 km)—nearly double what the average EV would cover.

  As automakers roll out new models, electric car ranges are likely to continue increasing and could soon match those of their gas-powered counterparts. It’s important to note that EV ranges can change depending on external conditions.

  What Affects EV Ranges?

  In theory, EV ranges depend on battery capacity and motor efficiency, but real-world results can vary based on several factors:

  • Weather: At temperatures below 20℉ (-6.7℃), EVs can lose around 12% of their range, rising to 41% if heating is turned on inside the vehicle.

  • Operating Conditions: Thanks to regenerative braking, EVs may extend their maximum range during city driving.

  • Speed: When driving at high speeds, EV motors spin faster at a less efficient rate. This may result in range loss.

  On the contrary, when driven at optimal temperatures of about 70℉ (21.5℃), EVs can exceed their rated range, according to an analysis by Geotab.

  The 10 Longest-Range Electric Cars in America

  Here are the 10 longest-range electric cars available in the U.S. as of 2022, based on Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) range estimates:

  

   

  Source: Car and Driver

  The top-spec Lucid Air offers the highest range of any EV with a price tag of $170,500, followed by the Tesla Model S. But the Tesla Model 3 offers the most bang for your buck if range and price are the only two factors in consideration.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 21:00

• FBI Singles Out Conservative Agents In 'Purge,' Retaliates Against Whistleblowers: GOP Lawmakers
  FBI Singles Out Conservative Agents In ‘Purge,’ Retaliates Against Whistleblowers: GOP Lawmakers

  Authored by Frank Fang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  

  House Judiciary Republicans are asking a senior FBI official to testify in a transcribed interview, alleging the official has signed off on many “adverse personnel actions” against conservative agents, saying they were being targeted in a “purge.”

  Their allegations concern Jennifer Leigh Moore, the executive assistant director of the FBI’s human resources branch, according to a Sept. 29 letter from Reps. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), and Mike Johnson (R-La.). Jordan is the ranking member of the House Judiciary Committee.

  “This is beyond outrageous,” the House Judiciary GOP wrote on Twitter.

  The lawmakers said they found out how conservative agents were being targeted while investigating “serious allegations of abuse and misconduct within the senior leadership of the Department of Justice and the Federal Bureau of Investigation.”

  “During the course of this investigation, we have received protected whistleblower disclosures that the FBI is engaging in a ‘purge’ of employees with conservative views by revoking their security clearances and indefinitely suspending these employees,” the lawmakers wrote.

  They added, “Many of the formal notices for these adverse personnel actions have been signed by you,” referring to Moore.

  What’s more, the three lawmakers allege that Moore has “retaliated against at least one whistleblower who has made protected disclosures to Congress.”

  

  That whistleblower shared information with the House Judiciary Committee about the Justice Department’s decision last year to create a threat tag label, to track cases of parents who protested at school board meetings, Jordan said in an interview with Fox News.

  “Once a whistleblower makes a protected disclosure, an agency is prohibited from retaliating against the employee for that disclosure by taking or failing to take a personnel action,” the lawmakers wrote. “Your efforts to interfere with FBI employees who seek to expose the Bureau’s misconduct by communicating directly with Congress cannot be condoned.”

  They added, “As we informed [FBI] Director Christopher Wray, we take whistleblower retaliation seriously and we therefore require that you appear for a transcribed interview as soon as possible.”

  Moore is asked to schedule her transcribed interview by Oct. 4, according to the letter.

  The FBI has denied wrongdoing in a statement to media outlets.

  “The FBI does not target or take adverse action against employees for exercising their First Amendment rights or for their political views; to allege otherwise is false and misleading,” an FBI spokesperson said. “The FBI is required to follow established policies and procedures, to include a thorough investigation, when suspending or revoking a security clearance.”

  “The FBI takes very seriously its responsibility to FBI employees who may make protected disclosures under the whistleblower regulations,” the spokesperson added. “FBI employees who report evidence of wrongdoing through a protected disclosure are protected from retaliation.”

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 20:30

• The Growing Global Reliance On Antidepressants
  The Growing Global Reliance On Antidepressants

  According to the latest OECD data, Iceland continues to have one of the highest levels of antidepressant use in the world – with an average consumption of 16 daily doses per 100 inhabitants in 2021.

  In general, the northern countries are among the biggest consumers, with Canada and Sweden also showing a ratio of over 10 doses per 100 inhabitants per day.

  

  Worth noting however is the absence of the United States from the data.

  As Statista’s Martin Armstrong shows in the infographic below, antidepressant use has become more widespread all around the world, with major increases from 2015 to 2020 or 2021 observed in Iceland, Portugal and Sweden, as well as Belgium and Greece.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  The places with the lowest consumption levels of those analyzed are South Korea and Lithuania (not displayed), with a ratio of 2 to 3 daily doses per 100 people.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 20:00

• Malone: Human Cyborgs Are Just The Beginning
  Malone: Human Cyborgs Are Just The Beginning

  Authored by Robert W. Malone via Who is Robert Malone,

  Ever since I wrote the substack article on human augmentation and the UK Ministry of Defence and the German Military Complex , discussing that these two organizations advocate for human augmentation in a report entitled “Human Augmentation – The Dawn of a New Paradigm“, I have been wondering if the US government, that is to say the US Department of Defense (DoD) and the Administrative State which controls it, has developed similar plans.

  This week I did a little research starting with the key words – “human augmentation” and “DoD” and there “it” is. The “it” being the strategy playbook and battlefield field plan for creating human cyborgs…

  For those who lust for more stimulation and shaping after reading the following, this substack also relates to our June 16 substack entitled “ARPA-H, Intelligence Community within NIH”.

  

  To begin – there are various “hints” from various governmental agencies that human augmentation research is underway and has been ongoing for a number of years. For instance, this article:

  Inside the Military’s New Office for Cyborgs 2014

  DARPA’s Arati Prabhakar Tells Defense One That Cutting-Edge Biology Research Is the Future of National Security

  Defense One, April 1, 2014

  The ability to link human brains to machines, create new life forms and build Star Trek-style disease detectors will be the focus of a new Defense Department office soon.

  The new office, named the Biological Technology Office, or BTO, will serve as a clearinghouse for Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or DARPA, programs into brain research, synthetic biology and epidemiology. The office will cover everything from brewing up tomorrow’s bioweapon detectors and connecting humans to computers to designing entirely new types of super-strong living materials that could form the basis of future devices. Here are the key areas in more detail.

  This author does let “the cat out of the bag”, so to speak, by his use of the word “cyborg” in the article’s title. That is the “military’s new office for cyborgs.” But the actual content of the article does little to enlighten us as to what the DoD actually has planned.

  It is getting hard to tell who is driving the bus here, the Pentagon or Paramount pictures’ script writers. Do DARPA locker rooms have pinups of Jeri Ryan? Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? Is Bruce Sterling actually a deep state operative and CIA consultant?

  

  Moving on to more recent news.

  ---

  Another fascinating title and article – this search was a little like following the bread crumbs to grannies house…

  Researchers Help DoD Consider Challenges of Human Enhancement

  DEVCOM CBC Public Affairs
  November 18th, 2019

  Peter Emanuel, Ph.D., the Army’s Senior Research Scientist for Bioengineering, sees a future 30 years from now where a U.S. Soldier can direct a swarm of drones in battle through a direct brain-to-machine connection using a neural implant. The implant also allows him to see exactly what each of those drones is seeing, then digitally integrate this information in his brain and send it as data to other machines, fellow Soldiers or his command and control element.

  This is a little more helpful.

  Note that the person being interviewed for this article is Dr. Peter Emanuel. This is important later on in this Substack. Trust me, it is a “Where’s Waldo” kind of thing.

  Also, interesting that now the DoD is using the language “human enhancement” – so much softer and gentler than “human cyborg,” don’t you think?

  ---

  This article is even a little more current. Of note – The COVIDcrisis most definitely took the spotlight off the whole “human cyborg” research agenda. Something tells me that the DoD didn’t mind that too much.

  US Space Force Chief Scientist Says Human Augmentation ‘Imperative’

  The Defense Post, May 05, 2021

  Today we’re on the brink of a new age: the age of human augmentation

   

  Human augmentation should be embraced by the West to keep up with the competition, US Space Force chief scientist Dr. Joel Mozer said during an event last week at the Airforce Research Laboratory.

  “In our business of national defense, it’s imperative that we embrace this new age, lest we fall behind our strategic competitors,” Mozer said.

  Mozer added that unprecedented developments are forthcoming in areas such as artificial intelligence, which will allow the military to craft tactics and strategies that “no human could.” Autonomous programs will eventually provide real-time advice to commanders, and multiple autonomous agents will be able to assist commanders and decision-makers in reconnaissance and fire control.

  The chief scientist further explained that human augmentation will eventually develop into technologies such as augmented reality and virtual reality — including “nerve stimulation” to enhance the simulation of physical sensations.

  “You could put [an] individual into a state of flow, where learning is optimized and retention is maximized,” Mozer said. “This individual could be shaped into somebody with very high-performing potential.”

  (I mean, who isn’t up for a little “nerve stimulation” among friends?)

  The language used is really helpful in tracking the origins of the ideas. Bruce Sterling’s classic cyberpunk novel Schismatrix is all about the conflict between Shapers and Mechanists, Shapers being the group that alters the body through genetic modification and specialized mental training. Mechanists are the group that modifies bodies through computer software and external alterations.

  Yeah, we’ve seen that movie too.

  ---

  Then we have the Big Kahuna, the report that begins to lay out the true intent of the military in all of this.

  This large, year-long assessment – commissioned by the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering and conducted by the DoD Biotechnologies for Health and Human Performance Council was published at the end of 2019. It is entitled:

  

  “Cyborg Soldier 2050: Human/Machine Fusion and the Implications for the Future of the DoD”

  Subject terms: “Cyborg” and “Human/Machine Enhancement”

  That abstract of that assessment reads:

  Abstract: The Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering (Alexandria, VA) established the DOD Biotechnologies for Health and Human Performance Council (BHPC) study group to continually assess research and development in biotechnology. The BHPC group assesses scientific advances for improved health and performance with potential military application; identifies corresponding risks and opportunities and ethical, legal, and social implications; and provides senior leadership with recommendations for mitigating adversarial threats and maximizing opportunities for future U.S. forces. At the direction of the BHPC Executive Committee, the BHPC study group conducted a year-long assessment entitled “Cyborg Soldier 2050: Human/Machine Fusion and the Impact for the Future of the DOD”. The primary objective of this effort was to forecast and evaluate the military implications of machines that are physically integrated with the human body to augment and enhance human performance over the next 30 years. This report summarizes this assessment and findings; identifies four potential military-use cases for new technologies in this area; and assesses their impact upon the DOD organizational structure, warfighter doctrine and tactics, and interoperability with U.S. allies and civil society.

  This analysis was made public when published, but then COVIDcrisis soon overwhelmed us all and it quickly faded from public memory.

  If you didn’t read this report back in the beginning of 2020 or if you have forgotten about it, below is the executive summary of this 50 page report (or click on the linked title above to read the whole report):

  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  A DoD Biotechnologies for Health and Human Performance Council (BHPC; Alexandria, VA) study group surveyed a wide range of current and emerging technologies relevant to assisting and augmenting human performance in many domains. The team used this information to develop a series of vignettes as case studies for discussion and analysis including feasibility; military application; and ethical, legal, and social implication (ELSI) considerations. Ultimately, the team selected four vignettes as being technically feasible by 2050 or earlier. The following vignettes are relevant to military needs and offer capabilities beyond current military systems:

  • ocular enhancements to imaging, sight, and situational awareness;
  • restoration and programmed muscular control through an optogenetic bodysuit
  • sensor web;
  • auditory enhancement for communication and protection; and
  • direct neural enhancement of the human brain for two-way data transfer.

  Although each of these technologies will offer the potential to incrementally enhance performance beyond the normal human baseline, the BHPC study group analysis suggested that the development of direct neural enhancements of the human brain for two-way data transfer would create a revolutionary advancement in future military capabilities. This technology is predicted to facilitate read/write capability between humans and machines and between humans through brain-to-brain interactions. These interactions would allow warfighters direct communication with unmanned and autonomous systems, as well as with other humans, to optimize command and control systems and operations. The potential for direct data exchange between human neural networks and microelectronic systems could revolutionize tactical warfighter communications, speed the transfer of knowledge throughout the chain of command, and ultimately dispel the “fog” of war. Direct neural enhancement of the human brain through neuro-silica interfaces could improve target acquisition and engagement and accelerate defensive and offensive systems.

  Although the control of military hardware, enhanced situational awareness, and faster data assimilation afforded by direct neural control would fundamentally alter the battlefield by the year 2050, the other three cyborg technologies are also likely to be adopted in some form by warfighters and civil society. The BHPC study group predicted that human/machine enhancement technologies will become widely available before the year 2050 and will steadily mature, largely driven by civilian demand and a robust bio-economy that is at its earliest stages of development in today’s global market. The global healthcare market will fuel human/machine enhancement technologies primarily to augment the loss of functionality from injury or disease, and defense applications will likely not drive the market in its later stages. The BHPC study group anticipated that the gradual introduction of beneficial restorative cyborg technologies will, to an extent, acclimatize the population to their use.

  The BHPC study group projected that introduction of augmented human beings into the general population, DOD active duty personnel, and near-peer competitors will accelerate in the years following 2050 and will lead to imbalances, inequalities, and inequities in established legal, security, and ethical frameworks. Each of these technologies will afford some level of performance improvement to end users, which will widen the performance gap between enhanced and unenhanced individuals and teams. The BHPC study group analyzed case studies and posed a series of questions to drive its assessment of the impact to DOD programs, policies, and operations. The following are the resulting recommendations (not listed in order of priority): (RM- I have only posted the top summaries for these recommendations, please go to the report for more detail).

  1. DOD personnel must conduct global assessments of societal awareness and perceptions of human/machine enhancement technologies.

  2. U.S. leadership should use existing and newly developed forums (e.g., NATO) to discuss impacts to interoperability with allied partners as we approach the year 2050. This will help develop policies and practices that will maximize interoperability of forces.

  3. DOD should invest in the development of dynamic legal, security, and ethical frameworks under its control that anticipate emerging technologies.

  4. Efforts should be undertaken to reverse negative cultural narratives of enhancement technologies.

  5. DOD personnel should conduct tabletop wargames and targeted threat assessments to determine the doctrine and tactics of allied and adversarial forces.

  6. The U.S. Government should support efforts to establish a whole-of-nation approach to human/machine enhancement technologies versus a whole-of-government approach.

  7. The DOD should support foundational research to validate human/machine fusion technologies before fielding them and to track the long-term safety and impact on individuals and groups.

  ---

  This rabbit hole then led me to the DARPA website – and wow! This research -to create human cyborgs, it is actually happening.

  A quick glance at the Biological Technology Office and DARPA reveals that programatic goals of building cyborg capabilities are being conducted at an astounding rate. The webpage search engine allows a search of the non-classified programs already being developed. So, one can go to this site and envision many, if not most of these technologies listed as being used for warfare. The military is developing human augmentation for military uses, not civilian. This is important to keep in mind.

  So, I spent a little time searching and webmining the more “interesting” DARPA projects. Below are just a few of the abstracts of research projects being funded by DARPA and the DoD:

  ---

  The Measuring Biological Aptitude (MBA) program aims to address the need for a more capable fighting force by helping individual warfighters identify, measure, and track personalized biomarkers related to training and peak performance for specialized roles. If the program succeeds, MBA technologies will give warfighters the ability to understand the underlying biological processes that govern their performance. Specifically, these technologies would elucidate the internal expression circuits (e.g., genetic, epigenetic, metabolomic) that shape militarily relevant cognitive, behavioral, and physical traits. New devices for continuously tracking these expression circuits could be integrated into the body to provide instantaneous user feedback, helping the warfighter to improve performance throughout training, assessment, selection, and mission execution for a given military specialty.

  ---

  DARPA’s multi-year AI Next portfolio of programs and investments seeks to develop contextual reasoning in artificial intelligence systems to improve human/machine teaming.

  The Agile Teams (A-Teams) program aims to discover, test, and demonstrate generalizable mathematical abstractions for the design of agile human-machine teams and to provide predictive insight into team performance. While human-machine teams have been the subject of considerable past work in artificial intelligence and autonomy, designing agile team architectures remains largely a trial-and-error enterprise. The A-Teams program seeks to create a systematic methodology to design teams that best use the capabilities of both humans and machines and that can achieve enhanced performance in uncertain, dynamic, and co-evolving environments. These new abstractions will be validated using experimental testbeds aimed to support reproducible evaluation of human-machine team architectures in a diverse range of problem contexts.

  ---

  The Hand Proprioception and Touch Interfaces (HAPTIX) program is pursuing key technologies to enable precision control of and sensory feedback from sensor-equipped upper-limb prosthetic devices. If successful, the resulting system would provide users near-natural control of prosthetic hands and arms via bi-directional peripheral nerve implants.

  

  The Safe Genes program supports force protection and military health and readiness by protecting Service members from accidental or intentional misuse of genome editing technologies. Additional work will leverage advances in gene editing technology to expedite development of advanced prophylactic and therapeutic treatments against gene editors. Advances within the program will ensure the United States remains at the vanguard of the broadly accessible and rapidly progressing field of genome editing.

  Safe Genes performer teams work across three primary technical focus areas to develop tools and methodologies to control, counter, and even reverse the effects of genome editing—including gene drives—in biological systems across scales. First, researchers are developing the genetic circuitry and genome editing machinery for robust, spatial, temporal, and reversible control of genome editing activity in living systems. Second, researchers are developing small molecules and molecular strategies to provide prophylactic and treatment solutions that prevent or limit genome editing activity and protect the genome integrity of organisms and populations. Third, researchers are developing “genetic remediation” strategies that eliminate unwanted engineered genes from a broad range of complex population and environmental contexts to restore systems to functional and genetic baseline states.

  Overall, the Safe Genes program is creating a layered, modular, and adaptable solution set to: protect warfighters and the homeland against intentional or accidental misuse of genome editing technologies; prevent and/or reverse unwanted genetic changes in a given biological system; and facilitate the development of safe, precise, and effective medical treatments that use gene editors.

  ---

  The Next-Generation Nonsurgical Neurotechnology (N3) program aims to develop high-performance, bi-directional brain-machine interfaces for able-bodied service members. Such interfaces would be enabling technology for diverse national security applications such as control of unmanned aerial vehicles and active cyber defense systems or teaming with computer systems to successfully multitask during complex military missions.

  Whereas the most effective, state-of-the-art neural interfaces require surgery to implant electrodes into the brain, N3 technology would not require surgery and would be man-portable, thus making the technology accessible to a far wider population of potential users. Noninvasive neurotechnologies such as the electroencephalogram and transcranial direct current stimulation already exist, but do not offer the precision, signal resolution, and portability required for advanced applications by people working in real-world settings.

  The envisioned N3 technology breaks through the limitations of existing technology by delivering an integrated device that does not require surgical implantation, but has the precision to read from and write to 16 independent channels within a 16mm3 volume of neural tissue within 50ms. Each channel is capable of specifically interacting with sub-millimeter regions of the brain with a spatial and temporal specificity that rivals existing invasive approaches. Individual devices can be combined to provide the ability to interface to multiple points in the brain at once.

  To enable future non-invasive brain-machine interfaces, N3 researchers are working to develop solutions that address challenges such as the physics of scattering and weakening of signals as they pass through skin, skull, and brain tissue, as well as designing algorithms for decoding and encoding neural signals that are represented by other modalities such as light, acoustic, or electro-magnetic energy.

  ---

  The Neural Evidence Aggregation Tool (NEAT) program aims to overcome current limitations by developing a new cognitive science tool that identifies people at risk of suicide by using preconscious brain signals rather than asking questions and waiting for consciously filtered responses. By aggregating preconscious brain signals to stimuli, NEAT would determine what a person believes to be true, false, or indeterminate about specific types of knowledge that could be used to detect signs of depression, anxiety, or suicidal ideation earlier and more reliably than ever before. If successful, NEAT will not only significantly augment behavioral health screening, but it could also serve as a new way to assess ultimate treatment efficacy, since patients will often tell their clinicians what they think the clinician wants to hear rather than how they are truly feeling. Ultimately, NEAT intends to augment current behavioral health screening programs by providing clinicians with previously unavailable information to enable earlier interventions and more reliable measures of successful treatment.

  ---

  The research activities that are being conducted by DARPA and the DoD are considerable. Even the small sampling of abstracts published above only begins to document just how large this endeavor is.

  These technologies are further along than we might think, and we deserve to know more about them. This is the future that our government is planning for us, whether we like it or not, and it is a future that is opaque. From genetic engineering to new synthetics development for neural implants, to replacing and enhancing limbs for warfare – our military is “going there.” But the truth is, some places “we” shouldn’t go. Just because they “can,” doesn’t mean they “should”.

  If you have learned anything since January 2020, I hope that you have learned to question the wisdom and insight of the insider cliques within the US Government and “Administrative State” who believe that it is acceptable to march ahead with genetic and mechanical engineering of human beings without meaningful oversight, let alone self awareness and any sense of bioethical boundaries.

  If we truly wish to have a say in these new technologies, society (which is to say “we”) must be informed. “We” have a right to be informed. That means you and me. As these technologies develop, transhumanism will become all the rage. Think about that. These new technologies will be what future generations will have to look forward to. Human cyborgs are their futures. They, that is human cyborgs, will be our children and our grandchildren.

  We are Borg. Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated. Your life as it has been is over. From this time forward, you will service us.

  Thanks, Paramount. We need more “normalizing their vision of the future” in our lives please.

  

  The military is already working on propaganda to “reverse negative cultural narratives of enhancement technologies.” So, once again – we are being played before we even know what the playing field looks like.

  Like I said before, we have all seen that movie too.

  The full scope of this program needs to be revealed to the American people. Although the executive report barely mentions gene editing technologies, the military is investing heavily in them and clearly with the intention of using them for the war fighter. The executive report barely skims the surface of the research that is currently being carried out by DARPA, and that is only one office within the Department of Defense. The public’s right to know about this research and what the final goals are is crucial. Congress must demand answers and must demand open and transparent responses. As the report rightly points out, what happens in the military will make its way into the public sphere. We have a right to know what is being planned for our future “evolution.” I don’t use that word lightly. But that is how the UK Ministry of Defence has labeled human augmentation research.

  Turns out that Silicon Valley darling and Klaus Schwab’s evil mini me Yuval Noah Harari (author of Homo Deus, which literally means “Man God”) is not so far out there in his thinking as we had thought.

  The bioethics of human augmentation are complex. The regulatory processes must be developed before the technologies come into being, not the other way around. People must envision how these technologies will be used in civilian life, in military life and as life-saving treatments. People need to decide if and which of these technologies really are for the good of society. People need to become involved now.

  That starts with education. Which begins with transparency by our government. In future Substacks, I hope that you and I will begin exploring the bioethics, the impact of these technologies, privacy issues, the targets, future visions of society and just what this all means.

  After all, what could possibly go wrong?

  Reposted from the author’s Substack

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 19:30

• Visualizing The World's Population At 8 Billion
  Visualizing The World’s Population At 8 Billion

  At some point in late 2022, the eight billionth human being will enter the world, ushering in a new milestone for humanity.

  In just 48 years, the world population has doubled in size, jumping from four to eight billion.

  Of course, as Visual Capitalist’s Nick Routley and Avery Koop detail below, humans are not equally spread throughout the planet, and countries take all shapes and sizes. The visualizations in this article aim to build context on how the eight billion people are distributed around the world.

  For extended coverage of this moment and what it means to the world, you can get access to our full report and webinar by signing up to VC+, our premium newsletter.

  Now, here’s a look at each country’s population as of September 2022:

  

  Below are regional breakdowns of population.

  Africa’s Population by Country

  As of 2022, Africa’s total population stands at 1.4 billion people. Many of the countries with the fastest growth rates are located in Africa and by 2050, the population of the continent is expected to jump to 2.5 billion.

  

  Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country and its largest economy. Based on current growth rates, Nigeria’s largest city, Lagos, could even emerge as the world’s top megacity by the end of the century.

  Africa has by far the lowest median age of any of the other continents.

  Asia’s Population by Country

  With 4.7 billion people in 2022, Asia is by far the world’s most populous region.

  The continent is dominated by the two massive population centers of China and India. In 2023, a big shift will occur, with India surpassing China to become the world’s most populous country. China has held top spot for centuries, but the mismatch between the two countries’ growth rates made it only a matter of time before this milestone arrived.

  

  Asia is a region of contrast when it comes to population growth. On the one end are countries like Singapore and Japan, which are actually shrinking. On the other, are Middle Eastern nations like Oman and Qatar, which have robust population growth rates of 4-5%.

  Vietnam is on the cusp of becoming the 15th country to surpass the 100 million population mark.

  Europe’s Population by Country

  Europe’s population in 2022 is 750 million people—more than twice the size of the United States.

  A century ago, Europe’s population was close to 30% of the world total. Today, that figure stands at less than 10%. This is, in part, due to population growth throughout other regions of the world.

  More importantly though, Europe’s population is contracting in a number of places—Eastern Europe in particular. Many of the countries with the slowest growth rates are located in the Balkans and former Soviet Bloc countries.

  

  Russia remains Europe’s largest country by population. Although the country’s landmass extends all the way across Asia, three-quarters of Russia’s people live on the European side of the country.

  Germany is the second largest country in Europe, followed by the UK, France, and Italy.

  Ukraine is the seventh largest population center in Europe, but it remains to be seen how the current conflict with Russia impacts the country’s long-term population prospects.

  North America’s Population by Country

  North America’s population is 602 million people as of 2022.

  The continent is dominated by the United States, which makes up more than half of the total population. America’s population is still growing modestly (by global standards), but perhaps more interesting are the internal migration patterns that are occurring. States like Texas and Florida are seeing an influx from other states.

  

  Canada has one of the highest population growth rates of major developed economies thanks to international migration.

  Mexico is currently the 10th most populous country, but will eventually be bumped from the top 10 list by fast-growing African nations.

  South America’s Population by Country

  The population of South America in 2022 is 439 million. Brazil makes up nearly half of that total.

  

  Sometime this decade, Colombia’s capital, Bogotá, will become the region’s fifth megacity (which is defined as having a population of 10 million or more). São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Buenos Aires, and Lima are South America’s current megacities.

  Oceania’s Population by Country

  The population of the Oceania region is 44 million people—just slightly higher than the population of California.

  Australia, New Zealand, and Papua New Guinea make up the lion’s share of the population of this region.

  

  Interestingly, many of the smallest countries by population can also be found in this region.

  When Will Earth’s Population Hit 9 Billion?

  The next global population milestone—nine billion—will likely be hit sometime in the 2030s.

  In fact, Earth’s population is expected to continue growing until it hits a peak at some point in the 2080s—possibly over the 10 billion mark.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 19:00

• Senate GOP Judiciary Committee To Investigate 'Excessive' FBI Raid Of Pennsylvania Pro-Life Activist’s Home
  Senate GOP Judiciary Committee To Investigate ‘Excessive’ FBI Raid Of Pennsylvania Pro-Life Activist’s Home

  Authored by Beth Brelje via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Attorney General Merrick Garland has received a flurry of stern letters, including notice of an investigation, from Republican members of Congress in the days since the FBI’s Sept. 23 raid on the Pennsylvania home of pro-life activist Mark Houck.

  “Not only did your office turn a local dispute into a national case, but the FBI reportedly executed the search warrant in as extreme a manner as one can imagine,” a Sept. 26 letter, sent individually by Sen. Josh Hawley said.

  “The FBI admitted in a statement that as many as 20 agents were present with their guns drawn.”

  

  Houck was handcuffed in front of his wife and seven children during the 7 a.m. arrest and search of his home.

  A Sept. 27 letter from 22 Republican House and Senate members asked why the FBI was deployed for state-level assault charges were dismissed by local authorities in Philadelphia.

  “At the moment, it appears to be an extraordinary overreach for political ends,” the joint letter said. “We request an explanation for the excessive level of force used by the FBI in this case, and why the power of federal law enforcement was once again used against an American citizen in what should be a state and local matter.”

  Next, a Sept. 28, a letter to Garland and FBI Director Christopher Wray from 12 Republican senators, offers more insight into the incident and askes Garland to provide answers to five specific questions by Oct. 12, so Congress can perform an independent review of the matter.

  This letter was led by Judiciary Committee Ranking Member Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and signed by Senators Toomey (R-Pa.) , Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), John Cornyn (R-Texas), Mike Lee (R-Utah), Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Ben Sasse (R-Neb.), Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), John Kennedy (R-La.), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), and Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.).

  More Details About Raid

  The FBI arrest warrant is based on an event that happened on Oct. 13, 2021.

  According to the letter, the incident involved an abortion clinic worker who allegedly shouted obscenities at Houck’s then-11-year-old son and invaded his personal space, refusing to leave him alone. Houck allegedly pushed the individual away from his son.

  Houck’s attorney for that incident, John Williamson, told the committee the Philadelphia Police declined to arrest or prosecute Houck. Despite that, the clinic worker filed a criminal complaint against Houck which was dismissed after the clinic worker failed to appear in court at least twice.

  During that case, the district attorney suggested settling the matter as a civil case instead of a criminal one, but the abortion clinic worker disagreed, the Senate letter said.

  After the complaint against Houck was dismissed on April 22, 2022, he received an April 27, 2022 letter from the Justice Department, advising that he was under investigation for potential violations of the FACE Act. The Freedom of Access to Clinic Entrances Act prohibits threatening or obstructing people entering or exiting an abortion clinic.

  Houck was likely familiar with the act as he regularly volunteered as a sidewalk counselor.

  After receiving a letter from the DOJ, Houck hired attorney Matt Heffron, a former federal prosecutor. Heffron told the committee that he left two voicemails and sent an email to Assistant U.S. Attorney Anita Eve but did not hear back.

  

  In the communications, Heffron told the DOJ that if it intended to indict Houck, he would receive the summons on Houck’s behalf and that he would appear voluntarily.

  “Given their cooperation with federal law enforcement, the family did not expect to be awakened at 7 a.m. with reportedly over 20 FBI agents surrounding their home wearing armor plated tactical vests, ballistic helmets and holding ballistic shields and long guns,” the Senate letter said.

  Once he was handcuffed, the letter says Houck asked his wife for his Catholic rosary and a sweatshirt. Then he was taken to jail.

  The committee notes that on May 20, 2022, Garland sent a memo to Justice Department employees about its use of force policy. The memo, titled “De-escalation,” said officers must be trained in de-escalation tactics designed to gain voluntary compliance from a subject before using force, and such tactics should be used if feasible and if they would not increase the danger to the officer or others.

  The actions taken by the FBI call into question whether they complied with DOJ’s use of force policy, the committee letter said.

  “The FBI must explain their justification for their actions on September 23, 2022,” the letter said.

  Five Questions

  The letter signers ask the following questions about why Houck was not allowed to self-report for his arrest and arraignment after his attorney said he was willing to do so, and whether political considerations were made to approve and execute the warrant.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 18:30

• Deepfake Bruce Willis To Return To Movie Screens
  Deepfake Bruce Willis To Return To Movie Screens

  Bruce Willis retired from acting following a diagnosis of aphasia, which causes a person to have difficulty communicating with others, but a “digital twin” of the American actor using deepfake technology will live on in future films and commercials. 

  The Telegraph reported Willis is the “first Hollywood star” to sell the rights of his digital twin in perpetuity. The actor will license his digital rights through a company called Deekcake, which specializes in artificial intelligence. 

  In a statement on Deepcake’s website, Willis said:

  “I liked the precision with which my character turned out. It’s a mini-movie in my usual action-comedy genre. For me, it is a great opportunity to go back in time.

  “With the advent of modern technology, even when I was on another continent, I was able to communicate, work and participate in the filming. It’s a very new and interesting experience, and I thank our entire team.”

  Deepcake’s website said, “We make digital twins of people you won’t tell from real.” They added this technology is very disrupting to the film industry: 

  We create digital-twins of celebrities, and the actual production process doesn’t require the physical presence of a celebrity on stage. Deepcake is only team able to make digital twin in 4K quality, On top, we can hyper-personalize your brand’s message, and jump on arena of performance marketing with A-List celebrities

  Engadget said Deepcake’s engineers created the digital double by training its AI platform to study the actor’s face in several past films, including Die Hard and Fifth Element. Then the AI grafted Willis’ face on another actor.

  Willis’ digital twin has already appeared in a commercial for a Russian telecoms company.

  There are concerns deepfake technology could be used to spread misinformation via digitally manipulated footage of people saying and doing things that never happened. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 18:00

• Our Emperor Has No Brain
  Our Emperor Has No Brain

  Authored by Bill Rice Jr via Substack,

  Biden must know he’s losing his mind

  Staying in office is clearly more important than doing the right thing and resigning…

  

  I normally feel great sympathy for any person battling the terrible disease of dementia. However, in the case of President Biden, who the whole world knows is battling this affliction, the sentiment I feel is closer to disgust.

  The reason my normal empathy is lacking is that President Biden himself must know he has this condition … and he won’t acknowledge this and do what’s best for the country and resign.

  Not only does Present Biden know this so too does his wife and children. So too does every person who works in the White House. Indeed, it now must be a 24-hour operation for White House aides to write the teleprompter scripts and stage directions they must produce for President Biden.

  The best (dark) comedy bit proving my conjecture occurred when White House aides dressed up a volunteer as the Easter Bunny and said Easter Bunny performed his assigned task of keeping our president away from reporters and Easter egg hunters.

  What motivated me to write this column is the cringe-inducing moment that happened yesterday when President Biden (going off script) asked if a deceased Congress person was in the room.

  We’ve all known people who are obviously losing their mental sharpness. I know several friends who are struggling with this condition right now. (In fact, I wonder if this “brain fog,” at least in some people, might be an adverse reaction to the Covid “vaccines.”)

  Regardless of the cause, most people going through this struggle actually admit this, either to themselves or others. When people start to suffer from this condition, they have plenty of moments where their brain functions as well as always. I’ve had people (all retired by the way) confide in me, “Bill, I’m losing my mind.”

  So I have no doubt President Biden knows what’s happening to him.

  My main point is that any person with an iota of genuine character would acknowledge what is occurring to him, and for the good of the country he’s supposed to be leading, step aside. Absent this happening, one would hope the people who love and care about this person would persuade him to do this.

  But these aren’t the type people who are “leading” our country. Instead, they are the type people who care only about their position, status and power and have no qualms whatsoever about participating in a conspiracy to cover up the truth. (An even more sinister possibility is the Powers that Be behind the curtain actually like the fact they have a puppet this easy to control.)

  The Real Scandal (the Same-Old Same-Old) …

  The conspiracy to ignore Biden’s obvious dementia is almost as large as the conspiracy to conceal the fact the “vaccines” are dangerous and ineffective. Certainly every reporter who covers the president and the White House knows his condition. But just like all the “off-limits” Covid truths, it’s taboo to mention the emperor has no brain.

  We’ve all probably known a loved one who had dementia. Knowing this, we all know this condition never improves. It gets worse, often in rapid fashion. So at some point, one assumes, one “adult in the room” will take President Biden aside and convince him he has to resign.

  When this day happens, the press is going to HAVE to report the real reason our president decided to belatedly exit political stage left  …. probably after first wandering off toward stage right, which – bad joke or not – has actually happened several times.

  I can’t wait for this day if only to see how the press spins the fact it covered up this story for  years.  (“Our President is suffering from dementia” is, in fact, a story). When this day arrives, I hope more than a few Americans ask our truth-seeking journalists one question: Why didn’t you cover this story? And then an even more important question: What other important stories have you refused to investigate and report?

  Truth be told, the Biden-has-dementia unreported story ties into all the other unreported stories. The real scandal is that America is “served” by a watchdog press corp that seemingly exists to cover-up real scandals, especially when they involve politicians and leaders on “their team.”

  The Biden dementia story also probably gives us one reason the press corps will never expose all the Covid scandals and lies. If the mainstream press did belatedly report this, they’d be admitting they covered up or ignored a massively-important story for years. Not going to happen.

  Above, I predict that President Biden will resign before the end of his term. But this is probably a naive assumption. (I also once thought that if and when the “vaccines” were proven to be ineffective at preventing infection or spread our government couldn’t possibly mandate such an experimental shot).

  My new maxim is that what shouldn’t happen … will happen (and vice versa).  So it’s very possible President Biden will still be president in January 2025. At that point, I can’t imagine the post-traumatic stress of White House handlers who got “Bernie” through not one weekend, but 208 weekends.

  Every day will include more presidential “gaffes,” gaffes which once might have provided the nation much-needed comic relief but are now no longer funny.

  It actually strikes me as cruel that so many people who ostensibly care about President Biden won’t do anything to help him. It’s also malfeasance or an abdication of some moral or ethical duty that these people allow a man who could start a nuclear war to remain in office.

  One day someone will write the White House tell-all of all tell-alls and the public will belatedly learn how severe President Biden’s cognitive condition really was. Until that day, we’ll continue to live in the surreal world depicted in the Peter Sellers’ cult classic “Being There.”

  

  In that movie, the simple-minded gardener hadn’t been elected president yet. So America did get there.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 17:30

• Election-Denier Stacey Abrams Loses Again After Judge Tosses 'Voter Suppression' Lawsuit
  Election-Denier Stacey Abrams Loses Again After Judge Tosses ‘Voter Suppression’ Lawsuit

  Stacey Abrams, the current and former Democratic candidate for Georgia governor, has tossed out a lawsuit challenging Georgia’s election system following her 2018 loss to Republican Gov. Brian Kemp.

  

  The lawsuit – filed nearly four years ago by Abrams’ PAC, Fair Fight Georgia, sought to change how the state conducts elections. Earlier this year, the judge narrowed the scope of the lawsuit by dismissing many of its original claims.

  Abrams claimed there was “misconduct, fraud or irregularities” in the voting process – a cardinal sin if you’re a conservative who similarly questions election integrity. She took legal action to stop counties from throwing out rejected provisional and absentee ballots when updated vote totals made clear that Kemp was the likely winner.

  “Although Georgia’s election system is not perfect, the challenged practices violate neither the constitution nor the [Voting Rights Amendment],” said U.S. District Judge Steven Jones in his ruling.

  The failed candidate and MSM pundit has repeatedly said that her refusal to concede to Kemp is different from election fraud claims by former President Trump, because she “never denied that I lost.”

  Yet, even the Washington Post didn’t let Abrams get away with revisionism – noting:

  Abrams at various times has said the election was “stolen” and even, in a New York Times interview, that “I won.” She suggested that election laws were “rigged” and that it was “not a free or fair election.” She also claimed that voter suppression was to blame for her loss, even though she admitted she could not “empirically” prove that. While she did acknowledged Kemp was the governor, she refused to say he was the “legitimate” governor. -WaPo

  Abrams’ clear refusal to accept her loss sparked a barrage of criticism – including insensitive memes:

  

  Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, the lead defendant in the case, hailed the ruling.

  “This ruling allows local officials to focus on the task at hand this year—running a safe, secure, and accessible election,” he tweeted. “Stolen election and voter suppression claims by Stacey Abrams were nothing but poll-tested rhetoric not supported by facts and evidence.”

  As the Epoch Times notes;

  In a statement on Friday, Abrams said despite the loss, the case “had measurable results,” including “the reinstatement of over 22,000 ballots, substantive changes to voting laws, and a platform for voters of color to demand greater equity in our state.”

  “During this suit, more than 3,000 voters shared their stories, creating an unprecedented and lasting record of voter testimony, which highlighted the suppressive effects of the Secretary of State’s actions on vulnerable voters,” she said on Twitter.

  Abrams vowed to “expand the right to vote” for minorities if she wins the gubernatorial election.

  After losing in 2018, lawyers for Abrams’s campaign and the Democrat Party of Georgia asked the court to order that provisional ballots that were rejected due to missing or incorrect information be restored. Her lawsuit also demanded that counties that had already certified vote returns correct their totals and re-certify the results.

  The complaint specifically demanded to restore the votes of 1,095 Gwinnett County voters whose absentee ballots were rejected.

  Abrams’s campaign contacted voters in Georgia asking if they experienced issues casting a vote.

  Kemp’s campaign accused Abrams of trying to steal the election by filing legal challenges and “desperately trying to create more votes for Stacey Abrams.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 17:00

• FDA Withholding Autopsy Results On People Who Died After Getting COVID-19 Vaccines
  FDA Withholding Autopsy Results On People Who Died After Getting COVID-19 Vaccines

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is refusing to release the results of autopsies conducted on people who died after getting COVID-19 vaccines.

  

  The FDA says it is barred from releasing medical files, but a drug safety advocate says that it could release the autopsies with personal information redacted.

  The refusal was issued to The Epoch Times, which submitted a Freedom of Information Act for all autopsy reported obtained by the FDA concerning any deaths reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System following COVID-19 vaccination.

  Reports are lodged with the system when a person experiences an adverse event, or a health issue, after receiving a vaccine. The FDA and other agencies are tasked with investigating the reports. Authorities request and review medical records to vet the reports, including autopsies.

  The FDA declined to release any reports, even redacted copies.

  The FDA cited federal law, which enables agencies to withhold information if the agency “reasonably foresees that disclosure would harm an interest protected by an exemption,” with the exemption being “personnel and medical files and similar files the disclosure of which would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy.”

  Federal regulations also bar the release of “personnel, medical and similar files the disclosure of which constitutes a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy.”

  The Epoch Times has appealed the denial, in addition to the recent denial of results of data analysis of VAERS reports.

  ‘Easily Be Redacted’

  Kim Witczak, a drug safety advocate who advises the FDA as part of the Psychopharmacologic Drugs Advisory Committee, said that the reports could be released with personal information blacked out.

  “The personal information could easily be redacted without losing the potential learnings from [the] autopsy,” Witczak told The Epoch Times via email.

  People make the choice to submit autopsy results to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, Witczak noted.

  “If someone submits their experience to VAERS they want and expect to have it investigated by the FDA. This includes autopsy reports,” she said.

  Autopsies are examinations of deceased persons performed to determine the cause of death.

  “Autopsies can be an important part of postmortem analysis and should be done especially with increased deaths following COVID-19 vaccination,” Witczak said.

  FDA Responds

  An FDA spokesperson noted that deaths following COVID-19 vaccination are rare, citing the number of reports made to VAERS.

  As of Sept. 14, 16,516 reports of death following COVID-19 vaccination have been reported. Approximately 616 million doses have been administered in the United States through September.

  The spokesperson declined to say whether the FDA would ever release the autopsy results, but pointed to a paper authored by researchers with the FDA and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 16:30

• Fed "Begins To Split" On Rate Hikes As "Chaotic Market Breakdown" Looms
  Fed “Begins To Split” On Rate Hikes As “Chaotic Market Breakdown” Looms

  Back in early 2018, around the time the Fed was confident it could hike its way to around 4% without an accident, and with balance sheet QT on “autopilot”, we first warned that every fed tightening cycle leads to a crisis.

  Deutsche: “Every Fed Tightening Cycle Creates A Crisis” https://t.co/Lv2CM5gmEo

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 24, 2018

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  A few months later, in late December, this was confirmed when the Fed panicked and ended its tightening cycle very prematurely. Shortly after it started restarted (NOT) QE, which was then followed by the liquidity supernova that was the covid global lockdowns, and everyone knows the rest.

  So fast forward to the start of 2022, when just as the Fed was setting off on its latest tightening campaign, we again reminded readers that “every Fed tightening cycle ends in disaster and then, much more Fed easing.”

  Remember, every Fed tightening cycle ends in disaster and then, much more Fed easing pic.twitter.com/zX7Dur8nLG

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  While this warning was (again) ignored for far too long, with global central banks hiking rates no less than 294 times since Aug 2021 (vs 1302 rate cuts since Lehman), last week the Bank of England confirmed that this time won’t be different when it quickly ended its QT and restarted QE (“temporarily” of course) to avoid a brutal collapse of the UK pension system (which for some bizarre reason, had been allowed to use margin to hedge duration exposure). And while so far the Fed has shown it is confident it is immune to the crushing consequences of the biggest ever tightening cycle and reversal in global liquidity…

  

  … recent events are starting to make some high-profile financial luminaries nervous, starting with Mohamed El-Erian, who openly agreed with us on Friday saying that an “economic accident” would precede any central bank pivot…

  Mohamed El-Erian has a cautionary word for anyone anticipating an end to interest-rate increases https://t.co/WRysTFcfg3

  — Bloomberg (@business) September 30, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  … an “accident” which Bank of America’s credit strategists warned could be imminent when they said that “credit stress approaching critical levels, now is the time to put emphasis on risk management“, and unless the Fed slows down its hiking pace, it is about to break the all-important corporate bond market, to wit:

  With credit stress approaching critical levels, now is the time to put emphasis on risk management. This means slower pace of rate hikes at immediate upcoming meetings and a potential pause subsequently, to allow the economy to fully adjust to all the extreme tightening already implemented, but still working its way through the financial system’s plumbing. Failure to do so raises the risk of credit market dysfunction, which, if occurred, would be difficult to contain and fix.

  Or maybe we are wrong and the Fed is finally becoming aware that it its actions are about to break the economy and market again. That’s what Charlie Gasparino reported yesterady when he tweeted that, according to several big investors, “federal reserve officials getting increasingly worried about “financial stability” as opposed to inflation as higher rates begin to crush bonds.” Gasparino continued that the Fed was growing “worried about possible “Lehman Moment” with a 4% FF rate as Bonds and derivatives tied to them crash, given the enormous debt issued in just the past 3 years at super low rates. A Fed watcher told me the UK intervention was not “a one off” and the same systemic risk could happen here, which might cause the Fed to pause.“

  (2/2) tied to them crash, given the enormous debt issued in just the past 3 years at super low rates. A Fed watcher told me the UK intervention was not “a one off” and the same systemic risk could happen here, which might cause the Fed to pause. More later on @FoxBusiness

  — Charles Gasparino (@CGasparino) September 30, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  While that may sound like a lot of wishful thinking by the “big investors” it is becoming increasingly clear that Bank of America’s warning is certainly starting to resonate with Fed officials. As a reminder, the BofA team warned that to avoid “credit market dysfunction”, the Fed should slower “the pace of rate hikes at immediate upcoming meetings and a potential pause subsequently, to allow the economy to fully adjust to all the extreme tightening already implemented.”

  It now appears that they are doing just that, because according to Bloomberg, Federal Reserve officials “are starting to stake out different views on how fast to raise interest rates as they balance hot inflation against rising stress in financial markets.” Translation: here come the cold feet.

  As Bloomberg elaborates, “with Fed target range now at 3% to 3.25% and only a few moves from reaching their forecast peak, officials are starting to speak differently about the urgency with which they need to get there. Hawks like Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester say they must keep raising rates aggressively to win the battle against inflation even if that causes a recession.” However, Vice Chair Lael Brainard has offered a slightly softer assessment while continuing to stress the need to tighten policy. Brainard’s speech Friday — the first from Fed board leadership since officials met last week — said policy will need be restrictive for some time and avoid the risk of prematurely pulling back.

  But unlike her hawkish colleagues, “she injected a note of caution about how fast they need to go, while discussing a number of ways in which the global rate-hiking cycle could spill over on the US economy.” San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly also highlighted the cost of doing too much — as well as too little — to cool prices.

  As Bloomberg notes, their comments injected a slight variation into what has been a uniformed stream of insistence from regional Fed presidents declaring unflinching resolve to crush inflation.

  To be sure, the costs to the economy have already been telegraphed in the form of falling asset prices with the S&P 500 plunging 9.3% in September – the worst September since 2008 – as markets have now lost over $10 trillion from the all time high.

  

  But it’s the elusive economic collapse that is seen as the greenlight for any Fed pivot – just two days ago Loretta Mester went so far to say that not even a recession would stop the Fed from hiking further…

  • *MESTER SAYS RECESSION WON’T STOP FED FROM RAISING RATES

  … a view which seems dangerously naive and ignores the political fallout (for the Democratic party) that millions of lost jobs will lead to. Furthermore, while bond and stock values have cratered, for now the financial system – at least in the US – seems to be working just fine.

  But if the BofA strategy team is correct, that’s about to end with a bang. Indeed, even Bloomberg brings attention to what we reported last night, saying that “Bank of America Corp. says credit stress is at a “borderline critical level” beyond which dysfunction begins. That’s something the Fed wants to avoid because market breakdowns are difficult to control and can accelerate downturns.”

  In any case, the growing divisions among officials showed up in their forecasts released Sept. 21 that showed 8 officials estimating they would finish the year with rates in a 4% to 4.25% range while nine were a quarter point higher. Their 2024 forecast was even more bizarre and clueless.

  

  Another novel narrative to emerge in Brainard’s speech, was her warning that it will take time for the full extent of tightening to bite down broadly across the economy, another way of arguing for some patience starting now.

  “Uncertainty is currently high, and there are a range of estimates around the appropriate destination of the target range for the cycle,” she told a conference hosted at the New York Fed on financial stability. “Proceeding deliberately and in a data-dependent manner will enable us to learn how economic activity and inflation are adjusting to the cumulative tightening.”

  That contrasts sharply with Fed hawks. In fact, Mester has argued aggressively against down-shifting into more deliberative policy, as officials have done in past tightening cycles when high uncertainty lead the central bank to inch rates up a quarter-point at a time. At a time when inflation is too high, and the direction of inflation expectations is hard forecast, overshooting is better than undershooting, Mester said:

  “Some results in the literature suggest that when policymakers confront more uncertainty either in their data or in their models, they should be more cautious in acting, that is, be more inertial in their responses,” she said in a Sept. 26 speech. “Subsequent research has shown that this is not generally true.”

  “It can be better for policymakers to act more aggressively because aggressive and pre-emptive action can prevent the worst-case outcomes from actually coming about,” she added.

  Ironically, just as she read those words, the Bank of England capitulated and pivoted back to QE.

  Yet while a fissure is finally emerging within the FOMC over how fast to hike to peak rates, so far not a single official is talking about easing rapidly once they get there. Labor markets are strong with forecasters estimating another 250,000 jobs added in September, while the latest inflation report was discouraging. But expect all that to change and soon, because as Bloomberg summarizes, “What ultimately determines the pace might be just whether markets remain orderly or not.“

  This matters because while the Fed’s favorite economic indicators are backward looking and lag anywhere between 6 and 9 months, the market still anticipated key turning points and traders accordingly.

  “They have made the decision they are going to tighten more rather than less, which guarantees they will over-tighten. How are we going to see it? You are going to see it in financial conditions,” said former Fed staffer, Julia Coronado, founding partner at MacroPolicy Perspectives.

  “I don’t think they really understand” the risk of chaotic market breakdowns, she added. “When you say we are hellbent on being the fastest car on the road, that encourages a lot of positioning that is one way.”

  And speaking of chaotic market breakdowns, it is not just the credit market that is on the edge: according to another former NY Fed staffer, and current rates strategist at Bank of America, Mark Cabana who on Friday wrote a must read note (available to pro subscribers), in which he warned that Treasury “market functioning breakdown is a growing risk & may see long-end duration sell-off + curve bear steepen. The Fed is unlikely to tolerate a UST market functioning breakdown for long; if the UST market doesn’t work, broader markets likely don’t work.“

  Here, one look at the record low liquidity…

  

  … and exploding volatility in the Treasury market which was already blown above the 2020 covid crash and is on the verge of surpassing Lehman levels…

  

  … suggests that the Fed has already lost control of the Treasury market which is no longer functioning properly. How long until the Fed admits this, and how much additional pain it will tolerate before it capitulates, is a different question.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 16:00

• California Gasoline Is Now More Than Double The Price In Texas
  California Gasoline Is Now More Than Double The Price In Texas

  Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

  California leads the nation in top gasoline prices, over double Texas, Mississippi, and Louisiana…

  

  Gas prices courtesy of AAA

  According to the AAA, the National Average Gas Price on October 1, 2022 is $3.80.

  California lead the nation in price at $6.358 per gallon. That’s more than double the price paid in Texas, Mississippi, and Louisiana. Its nearly double the price paid in eight other states.

  Oregon has the second highest average price at $5.41 per gallon. That’s about 95 cents less than California pays.

  Mono County California has the dubious distinction of the highest county in the highest state at $6.937 per gallon. 

  

  Gavin Newsom’s Gas Price Premium

  Please consider Gavin Newsom’s Gas Price Premium

  Cash-strapped Americans have received relief from falling gas prices in recent weeks, but not Californians.

  The average gas price in the Golden State this week surged to $6.29 a gallon—$2.50 more than the national average—and the reasons are worth distilling since Gov. Gavin Newsom wants to export the state’s energy policies nationwide.

  Taxes add about 66 cents to the price of a gallon, about twice as much on average as other states. California’s cap-and-trade program and low-carbon fuel standard add roughly another 46 cents a gallon.

  These climate regulations are causing refineries to shut down or convert to producing biofuels that are more profitable because of rich government subsidies. California lost 12% of refining capacity between 2017 and 2021 and is set to lose another 8% by the end of next year. Yet refineries outside of the state can’t produce its supposedly greener fuel blend.

  So when California refineries experience problems, gasoline supply becomes tight and prices shoot up.

  “If you’re a (refiner) on the Gulf Coast, your gross profit on gasoline is about $6.60 (per barrel of oil). If you’re in Los Angeles it’s about $101,” Tom Kloza of the Oil Price Information Service told the Mercury News.

  Expect California Governor Gavin Newsom to run for President in 2024. 

  If you want to pay higher prices for everything, he’s the man to root for.

  *  *  *

  Like these reports? I hope so, and if you do, please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 15:30

• Pfizer CEO Bails On EU Testimony After Report Highlights 'Secretive' Vaccine Deal
  Pfizer CEO Bails On EU Testimony After Report Highlights ‘Secretive’ Vaccine Deal

  Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla has bailed on an appointment to testify before the European Parliament’s special committee, where he was expected to face tough questions over secretive vaccine deals, Politico reports.

  

  Bourla was scheduled to appear before the panel on Oct. 10, alongside key officials involved in the EUs vaccine procurement process, in order to discuss how to respond to future pandemics. According to the report, “Other pharmaceutical executives have addressed the committee, including the CEO of Moderna and senior officials from AstraZeneca and Sanofi.”

  Bourla? Not so much.

  The committee’s chair, Belgian MEP Kathleen Van Brempt, told POLITICO she “deeply regrets” the decision taken by Pfizer.

  After a visit to BioNTech’s headquarters last week, Van Brempt had said in a written statement that she looked forward to discussions “with other CEOs” including “Mr. Albert Bourla, the CEO of Pfizer” on October 10. -Politico

  In early September, an audit repirt into the EU’s vaccine procurement strategy raised questions over Bourla’s relationship with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen before they struck a multibillion-euro vaccine deal.

  The report, by the European Court of Auditors, found that von der Leyen had been directly involved in preliminary negotiations for the EU’s biggest vaccine contract, for up to 1.8 billion doses of the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine, which was concluded in May 2021. This was a departure from the negotiating procedure followed with other contracts, where a joint negotiating team made up of officials from the Commission and member countries conducted exploratory talks. -Politico

  In April, von der Leyen admitted that she had been texting with Bourla for a month straight while they were negotiating the massive contract. Two months later, the texts disappeared, triggering accusations of maladministration by the EU’s ombudsman, Emily O’Reilly,” Reuters reported at the time.

  

  Bourla and von der Leyen’s cozy relationship was noted last year by the NYT, which Bourla told they had “developed a deep trust, because we got into deep discussions.”

  “She knew details about the variants, she knew details about everything. So that made the discussion, way more engaged.”

  And now Bourla won’t have to answer questions about it.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 15:00

• U.S. Pension Funds Could Face Their Own "Lehman Moment"
  U.S. Pension Funds Could Face Their Own “Lehman Moment”

  Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

  Last night I had the pleasure of speaking with Jason Burack from Wall Street for Main Street to offer up my updated thoughts on the Federal Reserve, the economy and the state of the world in general.

  The first thing we talked about was current Fed policy, which I told Jason I thought was a case of too much, too late. I made the argument that the Fed is, as it always does, overshooting its mark, and doing so at the wrong time.

  This, as I have written several times, is why I believe the market is going to be in for a serious crash at some point within the next several months. I reiterated my stance to him that the economy and stock market have not yet truly digested 3% interest rates and, when they do, there will be hell to pay.

  “They’re so nervous about the inflation issue, they have said ‘come hell or high water, we’re going to 4%’. I believe the consequences of 300bps of hikes in nine months have not even begun to be felt yet,” I said.

  “I think we’re going to have a serious moment of real panic, probably an order of magnitude bigger than the one they just had in England,” I said. “They’re going to try and ram this thing through and get us to 4% by the end of the year. The consequences will be devastating. It’s going to be a wild ride.”

  I also talked to Jason about why I think equity markets wind up 30% to 40% lower from here easily, assuming the Fed holds its course. If the Fed does decide to pivot, it would be a different story – but for now, with the Fed holding course, I think it is inevitable that our markets run into a brick wall, relatively soon.

  I laid out my most recent game theory on the Fed’s current options – including whether it will pivot or not, and how it will react to the Bank of England restarting quantitative easing – in my article I wrote on Wednesday of this week: Did The Global Pivot Back To QE Just Begin?

  One of the things that we talked about that I haven’t written about is the trouble that U.S. pension funds could be in.

  The Bank of England intervention this week was a result of pension funds potentially having a “Lehman Moment”. Reports noted that pension plans overseas were hastily selling bonds to try and meet margin calls, a scenario that I am certain we are not far off from here in the U.S.:

  Pension schemes had been selling gilts to meet emergency collateral calls or reduce exposure, pensions advisers said.

  “There are schemes running out of cash at the moment,” one pensions consultant said before the BoE intervention.

  From FT, here’s what scared the BoE straight:

  “At some point this morning I was worried this was the beginning of the end,” said a senior London-based banker, adding that at one point on Wednesday morning there were no buyers of long-dated UK gilts. “It was not quite a Lehman moment. But it got close.”

  I told Jason yesterday that I don’t think the United States is far off. All I have been reading over the last five years is how pension funds here (1) can’t meet their targets despite the market ripping and (2) were taking on leverage, managed by their obviously unqualified CIOs, to try and deploy the world’s worst carry trade and play catch-up/generate more yield.

  “I think what they did in Chicago was once they failed to meet their targets – first off, several funds have turned over their CIOs – they then issued a bond or something ridiculous to try and put on this carry trade where they’re going to pay 50bps on the bond and try and generate an extra 100bps of return. Some asinine, basically borrowing money to try and invest it,” I told Jason. “You have nonsense like that all throughout the [pension fund] system.”

  “If we can’t meet our obligations with pension funds when the market is screaming higher, what are we going to do now? I guarantee you there are pension funds right now already in big, big, big trouble and we just haven’t seen the news yet,” I continued. “We don’t know the extent of it yet.” 

  The fact that these funds were unable to post the returns that they needed during arguably the most euphoric bull market in history is extremely concerning. When conditions get worse for poor managers like these, like they are now, the capital destruction could be devastating.

  

  From there, we went on to talk about how government policy has enabled terrible monetary policy and how it could play a role in upcoming elections.

  We also talked about the state of Covid lockdowns, the Canadian government finally surrendering its long-coveted travel restrictions and the state of politics globally.

  “I think we’re going to see similar conservative populist movements throughout the world [like the one we just saw in Italy],” I told Jason. 

  I made the argument to Jason that the political poles (not polls) had reversed – in essence, the party that was once liberal has now become fascist, and the party that was once conservative has now become liberal.

  I talked to him about how the disintegration of US cities, combined with the economic destruction and the authoritarian lockdowns put forth by the current administration are all going to be tough to ignore for voters during the upcoming midterm elections. I further explained to him that I wasn’t surprised about the results of Italy’s latest election and predicted that many other countries globally would start to soon follow suit.

  My full interview with Jason lasted a little bit over an hour and you can listen to it here:

   

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 14:30

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Anti-Globalism Is Going Mainstream – Which Means Engineered Disaster Is About To Strike
  Anti-Globalism Is Going Mainstream – Which Means Engineered Disaster Is About To Strike

  Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

  I have noted in the past that criminals tend to brag about their criminality when they believe there’s nothing anyone can do about it. Frankly, in their narcissism many of them can’t help but revel in the moment and let everyone know how “superior” they are to the rest of us. We witnessed many moments like this from elitists within globalists institutions the past couple of years at the height of the pandemic pandemonium.

  There were people like the globalist academics at MIT proclaiming that we were “never going back to normal” and that we were going to have to accept the loss of many of our freedoms for the rest of our lives in order to combat the spread of covid. There were people like Klaus Schwab declaring the beginning of the “Great Reset” and the launch of what the Davos crowd calls the “4^th Industrial Revolution.” There have also been MANY political leaders like Joe Biden that strut around on the media stage accusing ideological opponents (conservatives mostly) of being “enemies of democracy.”

  If their vision of “democracy” is medical tyranny and the forced expansion of cultural Marxism, or if their idea of democracy is government cooperation with corporate monopoly and the erasure of our country’s founding principles, then yes, I suppose I am indeed an enemy of “democracy.”

  The globalists were really basking in the glow of their assumed victory. They thought they had us peasants by the scruff of the neck and that their agenda was all but assured. But as I have been arguing since last year, the money elites may have celebrated a little too early.

  The covid agenda utterly failed if the goal was to implement longstanding mandates and restrictions across North America and Europe. If you want to know what success for the globalists would have looked like, just examine China with its endless lockdown cycles and digital vaccine passports. The elites wanted that outcome for the west and they didn’t get it. They came close, but millions of Americans, Canadians and Europeans stood their ground and the cost to force us into compliance would have been too great.

  Even Joe Biden has openly admitted that the pandemic is over. They dropped the mandates because they knew if it came to war, they would lose.

  If the goal of the pandemic fear factory was simply to get the population injected with the mRNA vaccines, here they also failed. With many states in the US 40% unvaxxed (according to official numbers) and many parts of the world with large unvaxxed populations, there is a massive control group for the covid vaccines. If there are going to be constantly developing health problems associated the mRNA vax (like Myocarditis) then the public is going to know what caused them because of this control group. The globalists needed near-100% vaccination and they did not get it. Not even close.

  There is no escape for them – They greatly overestimated the public’s apathy when it comes to authoritarianism. The rebellion is too large and they will eventually be held accountable for their trespasses.

  Case in point: The latest election in Italy has resulted in a landslide win for the conservative coalition and the new prime minister (and first woman prime minister), Georgia Meloni, gave a rousing victory speech this week which directly exposed the far-left invasion of western nations, globalism and the poisonous collusion with woke corporations to silence dissent. She called for a return to freedom, and what was the mainstream media response? They are calling her a “fascist.”

  The Italian election is just a small part of an ongoing trend, an awakening of the people to the imminent threats presented by globalists, and the globalists can’t stop it.

  The fear among them is palpable. Anti-globalism is now going mainstream, and as it does people are going to start looking for answers. Why have our economic conditions been so degraded? Why are we facing stagflationary crisis? Why are prices on everything continuing to climb? Why did we almost lose all of our civil liberties in the name of fighting a virus with a tiny 0.23% official median Infection Fatality Rate? Why are pointless carbon controls being instituted in the middle of a supply chain crisis? Why are politicians and banks making everything so much worse?

  The public outcry for a reckoning is growing and it’s the heads of globalists that will end up on the chopping block. All roads to destruction lead back to them and the policies they have forced upon the populace.

  

  Of course, when criminals feel like they are being cornered they will sometimes set fires and take hostages in a last ditch effort to stay alive and slip through the net. I believe we are closing in on that stage of this terrible drama. It’s important to accept the conditions of the battlefield as they are and not underestimate the enemy. The truth is, globalists have extensive means at their disposal to wreak havoc and they have already set some of these disasters in motion.

  As I warned many years ago (way back in 2017 in my article ‘The Economic End Game Continues’), tensions with eastern nations are being used to diminish the role of the US dollar as the world reserve currency and the petro currency. The conflict is also causing resource shortages and supply chain weakness, not to mention an energy crisis in Europe that is now irreversible with the sabotage of the Nord pipelines.

  I also predicted in 2017 that the Federal Reserve would repeat a pattern of raising interest rate into severe economic weakness causing increased economic turmoil. They used a very similar tactic at the onset of the Great Depression, which former federal reserve chairman Ben Bernanke openly admitted was the cause of the long term deflationary collapse.

  From my article in 2017:

  “The changing of the Fed chair is absolutely meaningless as far as policy is concerned. Jerome Powell will continue the same exact initiatives as Yellen; stimulus will be removed, rates will be hiked and the balance sheet will be reduced, leaving the massive market bubble the Fed originally created vulnerable to implosion.

  An observant person…might have noticed that central banks around the world seem to be acting in a coordinated fashion to remove stimulus support from markets and raise interest rates, cutting off supply lines of easy money that have long been a crutch for our crippled economy.”

  The Bank for International Settlement’s, the central bank of central banks and the institution that writes global policy initiatives for all other member banks, called for MORE rate hikes last week. Aside from a minor intervention by the Bank of England, the evidence shows that the globalists WANT a crash and are engineering conditions of instability. They set up the dominoes in advance and now they have decided to knock them down. I think this is a fail-safe; a panic trigger in the event that they did not get the control they wanted from the covid pandemic.

  They will blame Russia, they will blame China, they will blame conservatives, they will blame anything and anyone besides themselves in an attempt to divert public attention away from the international banking actions that created the crash conditions in the first place. We can’t let them. Whatever happens next, it is vital that people remember who really did this to us and who needs to be punished.

  Over the course of the next couple of years the establishment power brokers are going to attempt to use a chaos screen in order to sow seeds of fear in the population. They are going to try to exploit that fear to gain even more centralized governance and change the very foundations of our society while suffocating what’s left of our liberties. It’s the only play they have left, but at least we now know for certain that there are millions of us out there – millions of people that will not comply and that will fight back. And, we know that the globalists are afraid; if they weren’t then they would not be falling back to such drastic measures.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/30/2022 – 23:45

• Global 'Unhappiness' Is Soaring
  Global ‘Unhappiness’ Is Soaring

  Last year was a difficult period for many people, and as Gallup’s latest Negative Experience Index indicates, unhappiness continued to rise worldwide in 2021, “as the world overall became a sadder, more worried and more stressed-out place”.

  

  But, as Statista’s Martin Armstrong details below, in two countries – Afghanistan and Lebanon – more people were living in misery than anywhere else on the planet.

  In the 2021 survey, the two countries recorded the two highest scores in the world on the index, which is based on people’s daily experiences of sadness, stress, worry, anger and physical pain. Higher scores on the index mean more of a population is experiencing these emotions.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  As summarized by Gallup, “most of the countries with the highest scores on the Negative Experience Index were contending with some type of economic or political instability in 2021”.

  On Afghanistan specifically:

  “When Gallup surveyed Afghanistan as the Taliban retook control last year and as the U.S. withdrew its troops, Afghans’ emotional state reflected the chaos and uncertainty. 80% of Afghans were worried, 74% were stressed, and 61% were sad.”

  

  Tellingly, “no other population in the world has ever reported feeling this worried in the history of Gallup’s trend.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/30/2022 – 23:20

• 'Libs Of TikTok' Threatens To Sue Twitter Over New Suspension
  ‘Libs Of TikTok’ Threatens To Sue Twitter Over New Suspension

  Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Twitter temporarily suspended the popular Libs of TikTok account on Sept. 25, which boasts of around 1.4 million followers, accusing the account of propagating “hateful conduct policy.”

  

  In a blog post on Sept. 29, Libs of TikTok stated that Twitter had wrongly imposed a seven-day suspension as a result of a “targeted harassment campaign from the Left” to deplatform the account. “The truth is I haven’t engaged in hateful conduct. I’ve just exposed the Left’s depravity by reporting the facts. There’s no rule against that, so they have to make up violations I’ve never committed. But I’m not taking it lying down. I’ve vowed to sue Twitter if they permanently suspend me, and I meant it,” the post said.

  Libs of TikTok is run by former real estate worker Chaya Raichick. The post goes on to point out that a lawsuit against Twitter will be “extremely expensive” and that litigation could drag on for months and years.

  To support Libs of TikTok’s fight against Twitter, a legal fund has been established whereby donors can send tax-deductible donations to cover legal fees and other expenses involved in the lawsuit.

  The Twitter page of Libs of TikTok (LOTT) is currently accessible publicly. However, the last post on the account was made on Sept. 25.

  On Sept. 27, Envisage Law, which is representing Libs of TikTok, sent a letter to Vijaya Gadde, the head of legal, policy, and trust at Twitter, asking that the platform reinstate their client’s account.

  “Many Americans are tired of listening to your company talk the talk of free expression while walking the walk of censorship,” the letter said.

  “If Twitter refuses to live up to its own words and aspirations and permanently bans our client’s account, LOTT will have no choice but to ask a court to order Twitter to live up its own statements.”

  Censoring Content

  In the letter to Twitter, Envisage points out that this is the “second wrongful suspension” of their client’s account. The law firm had written a similar letter to the company on Sept. 1, when LOTT was earlier suspended.

  In the letter of Sept. 27, Envisage affirmed that though their client’s reporting might be “offensive” to some Twitter users, this is not sufficient enough to cut LOTT from the platform. Similar to the last suspension, Twitter failed to specify which LOTT content is blamed for violating the platform’s “hateful conduct policy.”

  The law firm pointed out that Twitter has sent emails to LOTT on “numerous occasions” in the past, saying that the account’s posts did not violate its harmful conduct policy. The letter contained images of LOTT content that Twitter reviewed and concluded, and subsequently decided were not “subject to removal” under the company’s rules.

  LOTT’s most recent reporting is not “materially different” from any of its earlier posts. At the same time, Twitter’s speech code has not changed, the law firm noted.

  The letter cites a recent case, NetChoice LLC v. Paxton, in which the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas rejected the notion that “corporations have a freewheeling First Amendment right to censor what people say.”

  “Twitter’s current censorship of LOTT violates Texas House Bill 20 and, if necessary, our client will not hesitate to seek injunctive relief under this statute if Twitter permanently suspends LOTT’s account,” the law firm warned.

  Texas House Bill 20 prohibits large social media platforms from censoring users in Texas based on their viewpoints, unless such viewpoints are considered illegal according to federal law or if it falls into exempted categories.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/30/2022 – 22:55

• How Do Americans Spend Their Money, By Generation?
  How Do Americans Spend Their Money, By Generation?

  In 2021, the average American spent just over $60,000 a year. But where does all their money go? Unsurprisingly, spending habits vary wildly depending on age.

  As Visual Capitalist’s Carmen Ang details below, with the graphic by Preethi Lodha using data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, how average Americans spend their money (and annual expenses) varies greatly across generations.

  

  <!–

  <!–

  //–>

  //–>

  A Generational Breakdown of Overall Spending

  Overall in 2021, Gen X (anyone born from 1965 to 1980) spent the most money of any U.S. generation, with an average annual expenditure of $83,357.

  

  Gen X has been nicknamed the “sandwich generation” because many members of this age group are financially supporting both their aging parents as well as children of their own.

  The second biggest spenders are Millennials with an average annual expenditure of $69,061. Just like Gen X, this generation’s top three spending categories are housing, healthcare, and personal insurance.

  On the opposite end of the spectrum, members of Generation Z are the lowest spenders with an average of $41,636. per year. Their spending habits are expected to ramp up, especially considering that in 2022 the oldest Gen Zers are just 25 and still early in their careers.

  Similarities Across Generations

  While spending habits vary depending on the age group, there are some categories that remain fairly consistent across the board.

  One of the most consistent spending categories is housing—it’s by the far the biggest expense for all age groups, accounting for more than 30% of total annual spending for every generation.

  

  Another spending category that’s surprisingly consistent across every generation is entertainment. All generations spent more than 4% of their total expenditures on entertainment, but none dedicated more than 5.6%.

  

  Gen Zers spent the least on entertainment, which could boil down to the types of entertainment this generation typically enjoys. For instance, a study found that 51% of respondents aged 13-19 watch videos on Instagram on a weekly basis, while only 15% watch cable TV.

  Differences Across Generations

  One category that varies the most between generations and relative needs is spending on healthcare.

  As the table below shows, the Silent Generation spent an average of $7,053 on healthcare, or 15.8% of their total average spend. Comparatively, Gen Z only spent $1,354 on average, or 3.3% of their total average spend.

  

  However, while the younger generations typically spend less on healthcare, they’re also less likely to be insured—so those who do get sick could be left with a hefty bill.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/30/2022 – 22:30

• Stockman Slams Washington's Pointless War On Behalf Of A Fake Nation
  Stockman Slams Washington’s Pointless War On Behalf Of A Fake Nation

  Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

  The messages are coming in loud and clear today – from the crashing pound, to repudiation of establishment governments in Italy, Sweden and more to come, to Hungarian Prime Minister Orban’s call to end the Sanctions War and do so pronto.

  So let’s be clear: Washington’s dunderheaded intervention in the intramural spat between Russia and Ukraine and the accompanying global Sanctions War is the surely the stupidest, most destructive project to arise from the banks of the Potomac in modern times. And the architects of this perfidious folly—Biden, Blinkin, Sullivan, Nuland et. al.—cannot be condemned harshly enough.

  After all, this madness is being pursued in the name of abstract policy norms—the rule of law and sanctity of borders—that make Washington a laughing stock. More than any other nation on planet earth (and by a long-shot), it has serially and blatantly violated these standards scores of times in recent decades.

  Among other actions, Washington’s interventions in Serbia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, Syria, Somalia etc were not only pointless; they were also a self-evident violation of the very rule of law and sanctity of borders upon which Washington now beats its breasts ever more stridently.

  Moreover, by wallowing in this unhinged hypocrisy Washington has abandoned every semblance of commonsense as to why this conflict happened in the first place and why it is wholly irrelevant to the national security of the American homeland, or, for that matter, Europe, as well.

  The fundamental fact is, aside from the historically short interval of iron-fisted communist rule during the Soviet era, Ukraine had never been a nation-state within its post-1991 happenstance borders. In fact, for upwards of 275 years before 1918 much of its territories were borderlands, vassals and outright provinces of Czarist Russia; and before that constituents of the Polish-Lithuanian Empire and others.

  So we are not dealing with the invasion of a long-established, ethnically and linguistically coherent state by its aggressive neighbor, but with the left-over potpourri of separate tongues, territories. economies and histories that were smashed together by brutal communist rulers between 1918 and 1991.

  Accordingly, the fast-approaching dark, cold winter of stagflationary collapse in Europe is not being done in heroic defense of the grand principles proffered by Washington and NATO. To the contrary, it amounts to the pointless and grubby business of preserving a vile status quo ante that was confected on the lands north of the Black Sea, not by the ordinary course of historical evolution and nation-state accretion, but by the bloody-hands of Lenin, Stalin and Khrushchev.

  In any event, the staggering economic costs for the everyday peoples of Europe in pursuit of such a threadbare and illegitimate purpose is starting to register among the long-suffering victims of Brussels’ elitist rulers. Hence the thunderbolts from the Italian elections this weekend and Viktor Orbán’s parallel appeal to the European Union to lift sanctions and thereby potentially reduce energy prices by half in one swell swoop.

  Nor is Orbán the only one calling for an end to sanctions, with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotaki calling for a repeal of Russian sanctions as well. Other political leaders, such as Matteo Salvini, who leads the conservative League party and will be a major force in Italy’s new government, says that Europe needs a “rethink” on Russian sanctions due to the harmful economic effects.

  Likewise, the conservative Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has also been pushing for an end to sanctions and an re-opening of the Nord Stream 1 & 2 gas pipelines due to soaring energy costs in Germany. AfD member of the Bundestag, Mariana Harder-Kühnel, for instance, recently echoed Orbán’s call.

  “The EU bureaucracy has turned the screw on the sanctions, and now we are paying the bill,” she said.

  In this context, the ructions since Friday in the FX market for the pound sterling speak more powerfully than anything else.

  The British pound briefly plunged to its lowest level ever early this week, touching $1.0349 during Asian trading hours, breaking through its previous record low of 1985. Moreover, today’s cliff-dive followed a tumble of 3% on Friday, after the new Truss government announced sweeping tax cuts and a massive energy bailout for businesses and individuals.

  Likewise, the price of U.K. government debt has fallen in tandem with the pound, with yields rising sharply again today. The 10-year government bond was yielding 4.11%, up 28 basis points from Friday and a staggering 342% from the 0.93% yield of just one year ago.

  

  For want of doubt, here is the path of pound sterling over the last twelve months. That’s a massive thumbs down by the FX markets if there ever was one.

  

  But the relevant point here is not all the Keynesian palaver about the “mistake” of lowering the 45% top income tax rate and removing other disincentives to work and investment that take UK marginal rates as high as 60%. These reductions in the crushing tax rates that Conservative and Labor government alike have erected atop the UK’s lavish Welfare State are long-overdue and will, in fact, stimulate compensatory economic activity.

  What’s actually going to destroy the remnants of the UK’s fiscal sustainability is Truss’ utterly foolish plan to freeze all energy prices for all citizens and businesses at a cost of upwards of $200 billion per year or 5% of GDP.  But that’s neocon insanity run amok.

  If London wants to relieve its consumers of onerous energy prices and utility bills it only need follow Orban’s advice and terminate its Sanctions War against Russian energy, food and other commodity exports. And it wouldn’t cost the Exchequer a dime.

  That is to say, the pound’s crash ought to be a general wake-up call to Europe and Washington, too. By declaring war on the productive and peaceful commerce with Russia that previously prevailed, Europe’s leaders—-especially the new government of United Kingdom—have sacrificed their own prosperity and the living standards of their citizens in behalf of a prodigiously corrupt, anti-democratic regime in Kiev that is dedicated to preserving intact nothing more noble than the dead hand of the Soviet Presidium.

  Or as our friend James Howard Kunstler rightly summarized:

  Let us agree that the place called Ukraine was never any of America’s business. For centuries we ignored it, through all the colorful cavalry charges to-and-fro of Turks and Tatars, the reign of the dashing Zaporozhian Cossacks, the cruel abuses of Stalin, then Hitler, and the dull, gray Khrushchev-to-Yeltsin years. But then, having destroyed Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Somalia and sundry other places all on a great hegemonic lark, the professional warmongers of our land and their catamites in Washington made Ukraine their next special project. They engineered the 2014 coup in Kiev that ousted the elected president, Mr. Yanyukovich, to set up a giant grifting parlor and international money-laundromat. The other strategic aim was to prepare Ukraine for NATO membership, which would have made it, in effect, a forward missile base right up against Russia’s border. Because, well, Russia, Russia, Russia!

  So we return to the question at hand: Every Ukrainian presidential election since 1991 has revealed a nation radically split between pro-Russian populations in the east and south and anti-Russian nationalists in the center and west. When the mailed fist of communist rule was removed, in fact, Ukraine became a territory yearning to be partitioned into more amenable jurisdictions of governance.

  For instance, here is the results of the 2010 election that put a pro-Russian politician in the president’s office and at length gave rise to Washington’s putsch during the Maiden uprising that soon drove the country into civil war.

  

  The above map barely does justice to the actual figures. In many of the yellow Tymoshenko-supporting areas the vote was 80% or higher in favor of the latter’s nationalist candidacy, while in much of the blue area the pro-Russian Yanukovych won be similar massive pluralities.

  Yet this wasn’t a one-time fluke of short-term electoral politics: It was actually the recrudescence of the manner in which the fake nation of Ukraine was put together during the last three centuries.

  Prior to the end of WWI, there was no Ukrainian state. Like the artificial and unsustainable polities of Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia, which were confected by self-serving politicians at Versailles (especially the domestic vote seeking Woodrow Wilson), Ukraine was a product of geopolitical engineering—in this case by the new rulers of the Soviet Union.

  Indeed, the historical provenance of “Ukraine” can be described in a nutshell. What was to become Ukraine joined Russia in 1654 when Bohdan Khmelnitsky, a Hetman of the Zaporozhian Host, petitioned Russian czar Alexey to accept the Zaporozhian Host into Russia. That is to say, Imperial Russia spawned the latter day polity of Ukraine by annexing into its service the fearsome Cossack Warriors who inhabited its central region.

  The army and a small territory then under Hetman control was called “u kraine,” which means in Russian “at the edge”, a term that had originated in the twelfth century to describe lands on the border of Russia.

  During the next 250 years the expansionist Czars annexed more and more of the adjacent territory, designating the eastern and southern regions as “Novorussiya” (New Russia), which territories included Catherine the Great’s purchase of Crimea from the Ottomans in 1783.

  That is to say, at the time of America’s own independence the heart of today’s Ukraine was ruled by the long arm of Czarist autocracy.

  After the Bolshevik revolution, of course, the map changed radically. In 1919 Lenin created the socialist state of Ukraine on part of the territory of the former Russian Empire. Ukraine officially became the Ukrainian People’s Republic with the capital of Kharkov in 1922 (moved to Kiev in 1934).

  Accordingly, the new communist state swallowed up Novorussiya per the eastern and southern portions of the green area in the map below, including Donetsk, and Lugansk regions, as well as the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions bordering the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea that are the sites of today’s Russia-sponsored succession referendums.

  Then in 1939, as a result of the infamous Nazi-Soviet Pact, Stalin annexed the eastern territories of Poland, as designated by the yellow areas of the map. Thus, the historic territory of Galicia and the Polish city of Lvov were incorporated into Ukraine by the joint decree of Stalin and Hitler.

  In June of 1940, Stalin next annexed Northern Bukovina (brown area) from Romania. And then at the Yalta conference in 1945, upon Stalin’s insistence to Churchill and Roosevelt, the Hungarian Carpathian Ruthenia was incorporated into the Soviet Union and added to Ukraine.

  Taken together, these Stalinist seizures are now known as Western Ukraine, the people’s of which understandably do not cotton to things Russian. At the same time, the 85% Russian-speaking population inhabiting the purple area (Crimea) was gifted to Ukraine by Khrushchev in 1954 for the very reason of extending his own accession to the communist dictatorship.

  Nevertheless, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Ukraine inherited these communist-confected borders within which there were upwards of 40 millions Russians, Poles, Hungarians, Romanians, Tartars and countless lesser nationalities—all trapped in a newly declared country in which they didn’t especially wish to reside.

  

  Indeed, the reason that the hapless state of “Ukraine” needs relief in partition, not a war to preserve the handiwork if Czars and Commissars, was well summarized by Alexander G. Markovsky in the American Thinker:

  Today’s Ukrainian civil war is thus greatly exacerbated by the fact that unlike pluralistic societies such as the USA, Canada, Switzerland, and Russia, which are tolerant of different cultures, religions, and languages, Ukraine is not.  Unsurprisingly, devotion to pluralism proved not to be her forte. Even though the Kiev regime had no historical roots in the real estate it inhabited, it imposed Ukrainian rules and the Ukrainian language on non-Ukrainian people after declaring independence.

  As a result, pro-Russian sentiments – ranging from the recognition of the official status of the Russian language to outright secession – have always been prevalent in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. Western Ukraine has always gravitated toward its Polish, Romanian, and Hungarian roots. Emphatically anti-Russian, Poland may not miss this strategic opportunity to re-acquire its land and avenge the humiliation inflicted by the Yalta Conference.

  The West’s insistence on maintaining the status quo of the Ukrainian borders established by Lenin, Stalin and Hitler exposes the disconnect between strategic doctrine and moral principles. 

  Indeed, Poles make no secret of their ambitions. Polish President Andrzej Duda, recently declared, “For decades, and maybe, God forbid, for centuries, there will be no more borders between our countries – Poland and Ukraine. There will be no such border!”

  Romania is not far behind, especially in light of many inhabitants of former Northern Bukovina already carrying Romanian passports.

  The territory of Ukraine is a mosaic of other people’s lands. If we want to stop this insane war and ensure peace in Europe, instead of calling Russia’s sponsored referendum in Eastern Ukraine a sham, we should conduct an honest referendum in all the disputed territories under the auspices of the UN and let the people decide what government they want.

  Needless to say, partition of the fake state of Ukraine is not remotely on Washington’s mind. After all, it would remove the latest neocon reason for spreading the blessings of Forever Wars to the fairest parts of the planet.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/30/2022 – 22:05

• Exxon CEO Pushes Back On Biden's Plan To Limit Fuel Exports
  Exxon CEO Pushes Back On Biden’s Plan To Limit Fuel Exports

  First it was Chevon’s CEO reaching out to warn President Biden about the administration’s action again oil companies. Now, it’s Exxon warning the President about limiting fuel exports.

  Exxon is “pushing back” against the idea of reducing U.S. fuel exports, telling President Biden’s Energy Department this week that such actions would lead to continued volatility in oil prices globally, and at the pump domestically, according to a new report by the Wall Street Journal. Exxon said that “the oil industry should not slow fuel shipments in favor of putting more in storage tanks”, the Journal report says. 

  Exxon argued that cutting exports would lead to a glut in the Gulf Coast which would then, in turn, prompt output cuts. 

  The concerns were laid out in a letter this week signed by Exxon Chief Executive Darren Woods. Woods wrote: “Continuing current Gulf Coast exports is essential to efficiently rebalance markets—particularly with diverted Russian supplies. Reducing global supply by limiting U.S. exports to build region-specific inventory will only aggravate the global supply shortfall.” 

  Biden’s Energy Department responded by pointing out parts of the country that have oil and gas levels near five year lows heading into hurricane season. A spokesperson said: “The administration has impressed upon the oil and gas industry that it must do more to ensure fair prices and adequate supply for all Americans, while meeting the needs of our allies.”  

  

  Woods argued that the East Coast had 59.3 million barrels of total gasoline and ethanol in storage, 1% lower than usual for the time of year. He also noted that demand for gasoline though June was about 9% lower than the three year average prior to Covid. He noted that pipelines that carry the fuel from the Gulf Coast to the East Coast are full and that there aren’t enough ships to move U.S. made fuel to the Northeast. 

  “Free market incentives remain the most efficient way for the industry to address these problems,” Woods said. 

  The pushback follows a letter by Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm in August, where she urged oil companies to slow exports in order to refill stocks in the East Coast. 

  She wrote: “The most effective way to resolve this issue without having to deploy emergency actions is for industry to prioritize building inventories during this critical window. The data clearly show there has not been sufficient progress in building inventories ahead of peak hurricane season.”

  She also took the step of threatening to limit exports if oil companies didn’t follow suit, stating that the Biden administration would consider “additional federal requirements or emergency measures.”

  In September, after discussing the idea with industry executives, she said the Biden administration was not “currently weighing any restrictions”, the Journal report noted. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/30/2022 – 21:40

• Durham Prosecutes FBI Informants, While Protecting Their Handlers: Sperry
  Durham Prosecutes FBI Informants, While Protecting Their Handlers: Sperry

  Authored by Paul Sperry via RealClear Investigations,

  Since being named special counsel in October 2020, John Durham has investigated or indicted several unscrupulous anti-Trump informants. But he has spared the FBI agents who handled them, raising suspicions he’s letting investigators off the hook in his waning investigation of misconduct in the Russiagate probe.

  

  In recent court filings, Durham has portrayed the G-men as naive recipients of bad information, tricked into opening improper investigations targeting Donald Trump and obtaining invalid warrants to spy on one of his advisers.

  But as the cases against the informants have gone to trial, defense lawyers have revealed evidence that cuts against that narrative. FBI investigators look less like guileless victims and more like willing partners in the fraudulent schemes Durham has brought to light.

  Notwithstanding his reputation as a tough, intrepid prosecutor, Durham has made excuses for the misconduct of FBI agents, providing them a ready-made defense against any possible future prosecution, according to legal experts. 

  “Durham was supposed to clean up the FBI cesspool, but it doesn’t look like he’s going to be doing that,” said Paul Kamenar, counsel to the National Legal and Policy Center, a Washington watchdog group. “He started with a bang and is ending with a whimper.”

  In the latest example, critics point to a flurry of pretrial motions in Durham’s case against former FBI informant Igor Danchenko, the primary source for the false claims regarding Trump and Russia advanced by the opposition research paid for by Hillary Clinton’s campaign known as the Steele dossier.

  Next month, Danchenko faces charges he lied to FBI investigators multiple times about the sourcing of the information in the dossier, which the bureau used to secure wiretap warrants to spy on a former Trump campaign adviser. Relying on Danchenko’s reporting, the FBI claimed that the adviser, Carter Page, was a Russian agent at the center of “a well-developed conspiracy of cooperation” between Trump and the Kremlin to steal the 2016 presidential election.

  

  “The defendant was providing them with false information” as part of “a concerted effort to deceive the FBI,” Durham alleged in a recent filing with the U.S. District Court in Alexandria, Va., where the trial is scheduled to be held Oct. 11.

  Had agents known Danchenko made up the allegations, Durham asserted, they might have asked more questions about the dossier and not relied on it to swear out the ultra-invasive Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act warrants to electronically monitor Page, a U.S. citizen who was never charged with a crime.

  But Danchenko’s legal team points out that he turned over an email to the FBI during a January 2017 meeting with agents and analysts that indicated a key dossier subsource may have been fictionalized. Stuart Sears, one of Danchenko’s attorneys, argued earlier this month in a motion to dismiss the charges that investigators “essentially ignored” any concerns they may have had about Danchenko’s sourcing, because they continued to renew the FISA warrants based upon it. Therefore, he argued, any lies his client allegedly told them were inconsequential, making them un-prosecutable under federal statutes requiring such false statements to have a “material” impact on a federal proceeding.

  While Durham did not dispute the FBI’s apparent complicity in the fraud, he waved it aside as immaterial to the case at hand. “The fact that the FBI apparently did not identify or address these inconsistencies is of no moment,” he said in his filing.

  At the same time, Durham acknowledged agents allowed the fabrications to contaminate their wiretap warrants – noting they were “an important part of the FISA applications targeting Carter Page.” But he stopped short of blaming the FBI, even for incompetence. According to Durham, the nation’s premiere law enforcement agency was misled by a serial liar and con man.

  “He’s painting it as though the FBI was duped when the FBI was more than willing to take the initiative and go after Trump,” Kamenar said, adding that though Danchenko may have been a liar, he was a useful liar to FBI officials and others in the Justice Department who were pursuing Trump.

  The special prosecutor’s indifference to the FBI’s role in the scandal is more remarkable in light of what Danchenko admitted in his January 2017 interviews with the FBI. He told investigators that much of what he reported to Steele was “word-of-mouth and hearsay,” while some was cooked up from “conversation that [he] had with friends over beers,” according to a declassified FBI summary of the interviews, which took place over three days. He confessed the most salacious allegations were made in “jest.”

  Still, the FBI continued to use Danchenko’s claims of a “well-developed conspiracy of cooperation” between Russia and Trump to convince the FISA court to allow investigators to continue to surveil Page, whom the FBI accused of masterminding the conspiracy based on Danchenko’s bogus rumors. Agents even swore in FISA court documents reviewed by RealClearInvestigations that Danchenko was “truthful and cooperative.”

  

  The combination of Danchenko reporting a “conspiracy” and the FBI vouching for his credibility persuaded the powerful FISA court to continue to authorize wiretapping Page as a suspected Russian agent for almost a year. In addition to collecting his emails and text messages in 2017, agents were able to sweep up all his prior communications with Trump officials from 2016.

  If the FBI were skeptical of Danchenko, it didn’t show it. The next month, the bureau put him on its payroll as a confidential human source, or CHS, making him part of the bureau’s untouchable “sources and methods” sanctum and thereby protecting him and any documents referencing him from congressional and other outside scrutiny. It made him a paid informant in spite of knowing Danchenko was a potential Russian spy threat who could be feeding federal agents disinformation. The FBI had previously opened a counterespionage probe of Danchenko from 2009 to 2011, and as his lawyers pointed out in a recent court filing, agents who were part of the case probing Trump/Russia ties, codenamed Crossfire Hurricane, “were well aware of the prior counterintelligence investigation” when they were supposedly conned by their informant.

  “It stretches credibility to suggest that anything else would have caused the FBI to be more suspicious of Mr. Danchenko’s statements and his potential role in spreading disinformation than the very fact that he was previously investigated for possibly engaging in espionage on behalf of Russia,” Sears said. “Armed with that knowledge, however, the FBI nevertheless persisted” in using him as a source – while never informing the FISA court of the prior investigation.

  The FBI didn’t terminate Danchenko until October 2020, the month after the Senate declassified documents revealing the FBI had investigated him as a Russian agent. It also happened to be the same month Durham was appointed special counsel.

  On Oct. 19, 2020, then-Attorney General Bill Barr tapped Durham “to investigate whether any federal official, employee, or any other person or entity violated the law in connection with the intelligence, counter-intelligence, or law-enforcement activities directed at the 2016 presidential campaigns, individuals associated with those campaigns, and individuals associated with the administration of President Donald J. Trump, including but not limited to Crossfire Hurricane and the investigation of Special Counsel Robert S. Mueller, III.” 

  So far, Durham has focused on the “any other person” part of his mandate. Federal officials and employees appear to be getting a pass.

  

  Though Durham prosecuted former FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith in August 2020, when he was acting as a U.S. attorney, he did not initiate the case. Rather, it was referred to him by Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz, who first exposed how Clinesmith had doctored exculpatory evidence in the Page warrant process. Even though Clinesmith admitted forging a CIA email to make it look like Page never helped the agency monitor Russia, when in fact he did and clearly wasn’t acting as a Russian agent, Durham failed to put him behind bars. Clinesmith was sentenced to 12 months’ probation and 400 hours of community service, which as RCI first reported, the registered Democrat satisfied by researching and editing articles for his favorite liberal weekly newspaper in Washington. 

  Kamenar said the Clinesmith case was a “bad omen” for how Durham would handle dirty FBI agents. He pointed out that the prosecutor could have charged Clinesmith with the more serious crime of altering a CIA document, but instead negotiated a deal letting him plead to the lesser offense of lying to a government agency, which Kamenar called “a garden variety process crime.” And “now he’s got his law license back.”

  Clinesmith worked closely on the case with FBI Supervisory Intelligence Analyst Brian Auten, who was singled out by Horowitz in a 2019 report for cutting a number of corners in the dossier verification process and even allowing information he knew to be incorrect slip into the FISA affidavits and mislead the court.

  Auten met with Danchenko at the bureau’s Washington field office and helped debrief him about the dossier in January 2017. And he wrote the official FBI summary of those meetings, which noted Danchenko “contradicted” himself several times. Auten learned firsthand that the information Danchenko passed to Steele was nothing more than bar gossip, and that his “network of subsources” was really just a circle of drinking buddies. Also at those meetings, the analyst received an Aug. 24, 2016, email revealing that Danchenko never actually communicated with Sergei Millian, the Belarusian-born American businessman whom he had identified as his main source of Trump/Russia connections – the all-important, albeit apocryphal, “Source E” and “Source D” of the dossier. It turns out Danchenko attributed the critical “conspiracy of cooperation” allegation the FBI cited as probable cause for all four FISA warrants to this made-up source, meaning the cornerstone evidence of suspected Trump-Russia espionage was also made up.

  What’s more, Auten learned that though Danchenko was born in Russia, he was not based there and had no access to Kremlin insiders. On the contrary, he confirmed that Danchenko had been living in Washington and had previously worked for the Brookings Institution, a Democratic Party think tank whose president at the time was tied to Clinton.

  Yet Auten and his Crossfire team led the FISA court to believe Danchenko was “Russian-based” – and therefore presumably more credible. They used this same description in all four FISA affidavits, including the two renewals that followed the January 2017 meetings with Danchenko.

  Internal FBI emails from two months later revealed that Auten knew that using the term “Russian-based” was deceptive. While tasked with helping review Crossfire documents requested by Congress, including FISA applications, he worried about the description and whether it should be corrected. He discussed the matter with Clinesmith. But the falsehood reappeared in subsequent FISA applications.

  It was also in January 2017 that Danchenko revealed to Auten and his FBI handlers that one of his subsources was his childhood friend Olga Galkina, whom he said supplied him the rumor that former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen traveled to Prague during the campaign to hatch a plot with Kremlin officials to hack Clinton campaign emails. 

  

  The FBI already knew from intelligence reports that Cohen had not, as the dossier claimed, traveled to Prague to conspire in the alleged Russian hacking of Democrats, or for any other reason.

  On Jan. 12, 2017, Auten and his Crossfire teammates received a CIA report that warned the Cohen rumor was likely part of a Russian disinformation campaign. The agency had discovered no such Prague meeting took place after querying foreign intelligence services, shooting a major hole in the dossier. The CIA report should have led the Crossfire team to treat any allegations sourced to Galkina with caution. But on the same day, the FBI got its FISA wiretap on Page renewed based on another groundless claim by Galkina – this one alleging the Trump aide secretly met with top Kremlin officials in Moscow to discuss removing U.S. sanctions. The falsehood showed up in two more FISA applications, which alleged “Russia’s efforts to influence U.S. policy were likely being coordinated between the RIS [Russian Intelligence Services] and Page, and possibly others.”

  Galkina also had a relationship with Charles Dolan, a Clinton adviser who figures prominently in the Danchenko case Durham is prosecuting.

  It turns out Dolan was one of the sources for the infamous “pee-tape” allegation about the Kremlin supposedly having blackmail evidence of Trump consorting with prostitutes at the Ritz-Carlton in Moscow, which has been debunked as another dossier hoax. But according to Durham, Danchenko tried to conceal Dolan’s role in the dossier from the FBI. The special prosecutor argued that the deception deprived FBI agents and analysts information that would have helped them evaluate “the credibility, reliability and veracity” of the dossier. He said if they had known Dolan was a source, they might have, among other things, sought emails Dolan and Danchenko exchanged exposing their Ritz-Carlton hoax. 

  “Had the defendant truthfully told the FBI that Dolan played a role in providing certain information for the Steele reports the FBI might well have interviewed and/or collected such emails from Dolan,” Durham speculated.

  In addition, the prosecutor said, investigators might have learned of Dolan’s “involvement in Democratic politics” and “potential bias as a source for the Steele reports.” Except that they already knew about Dolan and his politics – as well as his involvement in the dossier. It’s also likely they already had his emails.

  In another interview with Danchenko about his dossier sources, which took place June 15, 2017, FBI agents asked Danchenko if he knew Dolan and whether he was “contributing” to the Steele reports. Though Danchenko acknowledged he knew Dolan, he denied he was a source. Agents didn’t ask any follow-up questions. (They also never sought to charge him with making false statements to federal agents.)

  How did the FBI know to ask about Dolan? Because he was well-known to the bureau’s Russia counterintelligence agents as a businessman who frequently traveled to Moscow and met with Kremlin insiders. But more importantly, his friend Galkina was under FISA surveillance as a suspected Russian spy at the time, according to declassified records. The FBI was collecting not only Galkina’s emails, but also those of Dolan and Danchenko, all of whom regularly communicated in 2016 – which suggests that at the time the FBI asked Danchenko about Dolan, it had access to those emails and was reviewing them.

  This may explain why, as defense lawyer Sears noted, “the FBI never asked Mr. Danchenko about emails or any other written communications with Dolan” – and why it never interviewed Dolan.

  While Durham acknowledged that the FBI knew about Dolan’s troubling ties at the time and neglected to dig deeper, he said he’s not bothered by the oversight. “The fact that the FBI was aware that Dolan maintained some of these relationships and failed to interview Dolan is of no moment,” he maintained dismissively in a court filing. All that matters, he suggested, is that the FBI was lied to.

  One of those emails was particularly alarming. In an Aug. 19, 2016, email to Dolan, Danchenko made it clear he was compiling dirt on Trump and his advisers and sought any rumor, no matter how baseless and scurrilous. He solicited Dolan, specifically, for “any thought, rumor, allegation” on former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort.

  Such emails called into question the veracity of the whole dossier and further tainted the credibility of Danchenko’s “network of subsources.” But on June 29, 2017 – two weeks after the FBI asked about Dolan – the FBI renewed the FISA wiretap on Trump adviser Page based on, once again, the dubious dossier.

  From its wiretapping of Galkina, moreover, Auten and others at the FBI who sorted through such FISA collections would have seen communications showing her strong support for Hillary Clinton, and how Galkina was expecting political favors in exchange for spreading dirt on Trump. In an August 2016 email to a friend, Galkina expressed hopes that Dolan would help her score a State Department job if Clinton won election.

  It was a major red flag. But like all the others, the FBI blew right past it. Agents continued to vouch for Danchenko as “truthful” and his subsources as reliable, and continued to cite Galkina’s fabrications in FISA renewals.

  Under FISA rules, the FBI had a duty to “immediately inform” the secret court of any misstatements or omissions, along with any “necessary corrections” of material facts sworn in affidavits for warrants. But the FBI failed to correct the record, even after it became obvious it had told the court falsehoods and hid exculpatory evidence. In August 2017, agents finally got around to interviewing Galkina, who confessed the dossier allegations attributed to her were “exaggerated,” according to the Horowitz report. 

  Scammed by the Alfa Bank Scam?

  Last year, Durham also painted the FBI as a victim of the 2016 political machinations of two other anti-Trump informants – Michael Sussmann and Rodney Joffe, who conveyed to investigators false rumors about Trump allegedly setting up a secret hotline with the Kremlin through Russia-based Alfa Bank.

  

  Durham charged Sussmann, a Washington lawyer who represented the Democratic National Committee and the Clinton campaign, with lying to the FBI’s top lawyer James Baker when he told him he was coming in with the tip – outlined in white papers and thumb drives – all on his own and not on behalf of Democrats and Clinton, whom he was billing for the Trump-Alfa “confidential project.”

  “Sussmann’s false statement misled the FBI general counsel and other FBI personnel concerning the political nature of his work and deprived the FBI of information that might have permitted it more fully to access and uncover the origins of the relevant data and technical analysis, including the identities and motivations of Sussmann’s clients,” Durham maintained in the indictment.

  But evidence emerged at the trial of Sussmann, who was acquitted, that bureau officials already knew the “political nature” of the tip and where the data came from, but withheld the information from field agents so they would continue investigating Trump through the election.

  For example, in a Sept. 22, 2016, email describing the “special project,” an FBI official in Washington stated that “Counsel Baker provided [Supervisory Special Agent] Joe Pientka with 2 thumb drives and identified they were given to him by the DNC.”

  “Everybody at the FBI actually thought the data came from a political party,” Sussmann lawyer Sean Berkowitz argued, according to the trial transcript. “The (case) file is littered with references to the DNC.”

  But Durham kept offering explanations for why FBI brass bit on the politically tainted tip, opening a full field investigation based on it. 

  “Had Sussmann truthfully disclosed that he was representing specific clients [the Clinton campaign], it might have prompted the FBI general counsel to ask Sussmann for the identity of such clients, which, in turn, might have prompted further questions,” Durham argued.

  

  “In addition, absent Sussmann’s false statement, the FBI might have taken additional or more incremental steps before opening an investigation,” he added. “The FBI also might have allocated its resources differently, or more efficiently, and uncovered more complete information about the reliability and provenance of the purported data at issue.”

  Headquarters, however, did know the identity of the clients. Problem was, they blinded agents in Chicago, where a cyber unit was assigned to the case, to the fact that the source for the information was Sussmann and Joffe – a federal cyber-security contractor who was angling for a job in a Clinton administration. (A longtime FBI informant, Joffe was terminated last year after he was exposed as the ringleader of the Alfa Bank scam.)

  “You were not allowed to speak to either the source of the information, the author of the white paper, or the person who provided the source of the information and the data?” Berkowitz asked Chicago-based FBI agent Curtis Heide during the trial, according to transcripts.

  “Correct,” Heide replied.

  Another Chicago investigator was led to believe the tip came into the bureau as a referral from the “U.S. Department of Justice.”

  

  Still, field agents were able to debunk it within two weeks.

  The FBI was not fooled by the hoax, yet nonetheless went along with it for the next four months. The case wasn’t formally closed until Jan. 18, 2017, just two days before Trump was inaugurated. But then it was soon reopened after Clinton operatives again approached the FBI – as well as the CIA – with supposedly new evidence, which also proved false.

  “Comey and crew kept the hoax alive,” former FBI counterintelligence lawyer Mark Wauck said, referring to then-FBI Director James Comey. They welcomed any predication that allowed them to open investigations on Trump, he added.

  Pientka testified that Comey was “fired up” about the tip, despite the fact nothing had been corroborated. Comey even held senior-level meetings on the Alfa investigation in his 7th floor office. (Pientka, who led the “close-hold” investigation from headquarters, also helped supervise the Crossfire Hurricane probe.)

  Ironically, no one knew better that Sussmann was a Democratic operative with an agenda than Baker – the official Durham claimed was the direct victim of the scam.

  Baker, a fellow Democrat, was a close friend of Sussmann, who had his own badge to get past security at the Hoover Building. Sussmann had Baker’s personal cell number and Baker cleared his busy schedule to meet with him within hours of Sussmann calling to discuss his tip. Baker was well aware that Sussmann was representing the DNC, because Sussmann entered the building numerous times during the 2016 campaign to talk with top FBI officials about the alleged DNC hack by Russia. In fact, Sussmann had just visited headquarters with a delegation from the DNC on Aug. 12, 2016 – several weeks before he approached Baker with the bogus Alfa tip. They were there to pressure the FBI into concluding Russian intelligence was behind the “hacking” of DNC emails.

  “I understood he had been affiliated with the Democratic Party, but that he had come representing himself,” Baker testified during the trial.

  Why didn’t he tell investigators about Sussmann? “I didn’t want to share his name because I didn’t want to color the investigation,” he said. “I didn’t want to color it with politics.”

  In his closing argument, Durham prosecutor Andrew DeFilippis told jurors the FBI’s conduct was “not relevant.”

  “Ladies and gentlemen, you’ve seen that the FBI didn’t necessarily do everything right here. They missed opportunities. They made mistakes. They even kept information from themselves,” he said. “That is not relevant to your evaluation of the defendant’s lie.”

  Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton complained Durham and his team have been acting more like apologists for the FBI than potential prosecutors of the FBI.

  “The FBI leadership knew full well the Clinton gang was behind the Alfa Bank-Russia smears of Trump,” he said. “Durham tried to pretend (the) FBI was a victim (when) it was a co-conspirator.”

  Wauck agreed. “The FBI-as-victim narrative was a bit of a legal fiction that Durham deployed for the purposes of the trial,” he said. “The reality that emerged is that the FBI’s top management was complicit in the Russia hoax that Sussmann was purveying.”

  Folding Up His Tent

  Durham was first tasked with looking into the origins of the Russiagate probe in May 2019, before his formal appointment as special counsel in 2020. Trump and Republicans have expressed disappointment that after a total of more than three years of investigation, he has not prosecuted any top former FBI officials, including Comey and Andrew McCabe, who signed some of the FISA affidavits, or Peter Strzok, the biased leader of the Crossfire Hurricane probe who assured McCabe’s lawyer in an August 2016 text that “we’ll stop” Trump from becoming president. None has received a target letter. In recent months, McCabe and Strzok have gone on CNN, where they work as paid contributors, and smugly bashed Durham for running a “partisan” investigation, while at the same time gloating he’s held the FBI up to be more of a victim than a culprit.

  “Comey and Strzok and McCabe have gotten a free ride out of all this,” Kamenar said.

  

  Also, Durham went easy on Baker, another top FBI official, even after he held back key evidence from the special prosecutor before the Sussmann trial, a blatant lack of cooperation that may have cost Durham a conviction in the case. Comey’s general counsel has received “favorable treatment,” Wauck observed.

  Baker, who reviewed and OK’d the FISA applications, never told Durham about a damning text message he received from Sussmann on his cellphone. Durham had already indicted Sussmann for lying to Baker, and he could not use Sussmann’s smoking-gun message – “I’m coming on my own – not on behalf of a client or company” – during the trial to convince jurors he was guilty of lying about representing the Clinton campaign. Legal analysts said it was slam-dunk evidence that would have sealed his case.

  Baker testified he didn’t turn over the text to Durham because no one asked for it. He proved a reluctant witness on the stand against his old pal Sussmann. 

  

  “I’m not out to get Michael and this is not my investigation. This is your investigation,” he told DeFilippis during questioning. DeFilippis has since stepped down to take a job in the private sector.

  (Demonstrating the incestuous nature of the Beltway, Baker also happens to be an old friend of Bill Barr, who hired Durham. Barr hired Baker as his deputy when he ran Verizon’s legal shop in 2008.)

  In another sign Durham has not lived up to his billing as an aggressive prosecutor, FBI Director Christopher Wray suggested in recent Senate testimony that Durham’s team has not interviewed all of the Crossfire members still employed at the bureau. In lieu of face-to-face interviews, he said Durham’s investigators have reviewed transcripts of interviews of the agents previously conducted by the Office of Professional Responsibility, the FBI’s in-house disciplinary arm.

  Recent published reports say Durham is in the process of closing up shop and completing a final report on his findings by the end of the year. Republicans have promised to seize on the report if they win control of the House in November and take back the gavel to key oversight committees on the Hill, along with subpoena power.

  

  Some former colleagues who have worked with Durham and are familiar with his inquiry blame COVID-19 for his relatively few prosecutions and lackluster record. They say pandemic-related shutdowns in 2020 and 2021 set back his investigation by limiting travel, interviews, and grand jury hearings. As a result, they say, the clock ran out on prosecuting a number of potential crimes. The last FISA warrant, which according to the court was illegally obtained, was approved June 29, 2017, which means the five-year federal statute of limitations for that crime expired months ago.

  Though Durham hinted in the Sussmann case about investigating a broader “conspiracy” or “joint venture,” there are few signs pointing to such a massive undertaking. Bringing a “conspiracy to defraud the government” charge, naming multiple defendants, would require Durham adding staff and office space and beefing up his budget by millions of dollars, the former colleagues said.

  According to expenditure statements, Durham continues to operate on a shoestring budget with a skeletal staff compared with his predecessor Mueller’s robust operation, which indicted 34 people. And one of the two grand juries Durham used to hear evidence has expired. It recently wrapped up work, apparently without handing down new indictments (though some could be under seal).

  “If Durham were building toward an overarching indictment alleging a corrupt conspiracy between the Clinton campaign and the FBI to deceive the court, he would not be charging people with lying to the FBI,” former federal prosecutor Andrew McCarthy said.

  If there are any investigations still open after Durham retires, they could be handled by U.S. attorneys, the sources said. At least one of Durham’s prosecutors works as a trial lawyer in the U.S. Attorney’s Office in D.C.

  According to a court exhibit, Joffe “remains a subject” in the Sussmann-related investigation into alleged attempts by federal contractors to defraud the government with false claims about Trump and Russia. Joffe invoked his Fifth Amendment right not to testify after receiving a grand jury subpoena and has not cooperated with requests for documents. His lawyer did not return phone calls and emails.

  The Special Counsel’s Office did not respond to requests for comment.

  The FBI declined comment for this article, but issued a statement last year saying it “has cooperated fully with Special Counsel Durham’s review.” 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/30/2022 – 21:15

• "Globalists Are Marching Us Relentlessly Toward Nuclear Armageddon," Warns Former Senator
  “Globalists Are Marching Us Relentlessly Toward Nuclear Armageddon,” Warns Former Senator

  Fears of nuclear war are increasing across the West as Russia mobilizes hundreds of thousands of troops and declares annexation of parts of Ukraine. Meanwhile, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine is applying for membership in NATO. These two developments could be the most significant escalation since the war’s start. 

  Today’s developments are a sobering reminder that nuclear war threats are mounting. Retired Virginia State Senator and retired Marine Col. Richard Black addressed members of the US Congress in an open letter on Tuesday about “globalists are marching us relentlessly toward this nuclear Armageddon.”

  Black pointed out:

  There would have been no war had we not overthrown the democratically-elected government of Ukraine by violently ousting President Yanukovych in 2014. We promoted war by flooding Ukraine with massive arms shipments afterwards.

  The former senator said, “the US could have achieved peace by simply pressing Ukraine to implement the 2014 Minsk Peace Agreements which it had signed, establishing a clear framework for settling outstanding issues peacefully. Ukraine promised to implement the Minsk agreements, but chose instead to make war on the Donbass for the next seven years.” 

  He said NATO could’ve sought peace but chose war instead. 

  NATO had ample opportunity for peace but deliberately chose war. The US realized that, with Russia’s back to the wall, it would have no choice to but to attack. In 2007, US Ambassador to Russia William Burns pointedly warned that movement toward absorbing Ukraine into NATO might well trigger war between Ukraine and Russia. Nonetheless, the Obama administration overthrew the Ukrainian president and flooded in weapons, knowing that doing so would trigger war.

  Black said billionaire elites who have an interest in the region are making “war profits even if it means gambling the lives of hundreds of millions of people across the globe.” 

  “Should we annihilate the world’s population to intervene in a border war where the US has no vital national interest?” the former senator asked. 

  Black called for an immediate end to this war by making Ukraine a neutral, non-aligned state, “just as we did during the Cold War with Austria in 1955.” 

  But it appears the former senator’s plea to avoid further conflict went unheard after Zelensky’s declared intent to apply for expedited NATO membership as President Putin proclaimed the annexation of 15% of Ukraine. 

  Based on Article 5, any acceptance of Ukraine into NATO would automatically trigger a Russia-West world war (WWIII). 

  In a speech Friday, Putin said the US created a “precedent” by using nuclear weapons against Japan during WW2. 

  Last week, Navy Admiral Charles A. Richard – currently serving as the US Strategic Command chief — warned that “possible direct armed conflict with a nuclear-capable peer” could be ahead. 

  Here’s the former senator’s open letter to lawmakers on Capitol Hill:

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/30/2022 – 20:50

• Canada Has A Food Affordability Problem
  Canada Has A Food Affordability Problem

  Authored by Sylvain Charlebois via The Epoch Times,

  Did you know that there is a global food security index? The well-known magazine The Economist has just published its 11th edition.

  The Global Food Security Index comprises a set of indices from more than 120 different countries. Since 2012, the index has been based on four main pillars: food access, safety, sustainable development, and affordability.

  The approach is quite comprehensive and robust. Index indicators include nutritional standards, urban absorptive capacity, food consumption as a percentage of household expenditure, food loss and waste, protein quality, agricultural import tariffs, dietary diversification, agricultural infrastructure, volatility of agricultural production, public spending on agricultural resource and development, corruption, risks to political stability, and even the sufficiency of supply. In short, anything goes.

  

  Finland ranks first this year, followed by Ireland and Norway. Canada is well-positioned compared to other countries around the world since we are ranked seventh globally, the same as last year. Not bad. The United States is 13th.

  In terms of food access—which measures agricultural production, farm capacities, and the risk of supply disruption—Canada ranks sixth, which is not too surprising. Despite our recent episodes of empty shelves and stockouts, Canada can boast about its food abundance. We produce a lot and are part of a fluid North American economy focused on cross-border trade, which allows for better food access.

  Another pillar focuses on sustainable development, the environment, and climate adaptability. This pillar assesses a country’s exposure to the impacts of climate change, its sensitivity to risks related to natural resources, food waste management, and how the country adapts to these risks. In this regard, Canada is ranked 29th, far behind Norway and Finland, who are first and second in this category. Food waste remains Canada’s Achilles’ heel, as we waste more than just about anyone else on the planet.

  But with higher food prices, more than 40 percent of Canadians, according to a recent study, are wasting less than they were 12 months ago.

  When it comes to food safety and quality, Canada ranks first in the world. Canada is ahead of everyone, even Denmark and the United States, both renowned for their proactive approaches to food safety. Food safety in Canada is perhaps the facet most underappreciated by consumers.

  Despite a few momentary failures and periodic reminders, sanitation practices in the country are exemplary. Canada has consistently ranked well for years, except perhaps when traceability is measured. We have a long way to go, but the industry and public safety regulators are performing relatively well.

  But the area where Canada’s performance is of some concern is food affordability. This measure is dedicated to consumers’ ability to purchase food, their vulnerability to price shocks, and the presence of programs and policies to support consumers when shocks occur.

  Canada fell one spot again this year and sits at 25th in the world. Australia, Singapore, and Holland top the list for affordability. Given the resources and food access we have, Canada should do better. Since July 2021, food inflation has always exceeded general inflation in the country, and everything is already costing more these days. Higher food prices at the grocery store over the past year have been difficult for many of us to accept. Canada needs a food autonomy policy, a more robust food processing sector, and better logistics domestically.

  And with winter coming and our dollar visibly weakening against the U.S. dollar, we could see significant price jumps again, especially in the produce and non-perishables sections. As wages stagnate and food prices rise, it’s hard to predict when Canada will do better in terms of affordability. Specific fiscal measures such as tax reductions to help consumers would be more than timely.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/30/2022 – 20:25

• Progressive 'De-Prosecutors' Disrupt Criminal Justice System, Experts Say
  Progressive ‘De-Prosecutors’ Disrupt Criminal Justice System, Experts Say

  Authored by Petr Svab via The Epoch Times,

  A new breed of local prosecutors has taken District Attorney offices around the country by storm in a coordinated campaign that is tearing at the foundations of American justice system. The ideology that underpins their agenda is antagonistic to the traditional conception of criminal justice and, if taken to its logical conclusion, demands its destruction, several experts told The Epoch Times.

  

  Such DAs have been variously called “rogue prosecutors,” “de-prosecutors,” or “Soros prosecutors,” based on the fact that progressive billionaire George Soros has prolifically funded their campaigns and support structures. They started to enter the scene around 2014 and have quickly become a major power block, controlling at least 75 DA offices with jurisdiction over one in every five Americans, including half of the country’s 50 most populous cities, according to research by Sean Kennedy, a criminal justice expert at the Maryland Public Policy Institute, a liberty-oriented think tank.

  “They believe that the criminal justice system is excessively punitive and racially biased and that it is irredeemable,” he said.

  “And so they’re trying to undermine it from the inside.”

  The “rogue prosecutor movement” traces its roots back to the “prison abolition movement,” according to Zack Smith, former federal prosecutor who’s been writing extensively on the phenomenon as a legal fellow at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank.

  “There is actually a movement; it’s a Marxist movement that believes we should abolish prisons in the United States,” he said.

  “Many members of this movement … bought into the idea that our criminal justice system is systemically racist, that we have a problem with mass incarceration, we arrest too many people, incarcerate too many people. And so because of that, they want to lower prison population and they want to basically make many, many things that have traditionally been crimes either not be crimes or make the punishment for them very minor, like a speeding ticket, civil infraction.”

  Proponents of this idea, however, must have been aware that it would be very difficult to convince legislators to enshrine such a policy in law, Smith suspected.

  “What is very clever about what George Soros and others figured out is, rather than doing the hard work of getting the legislature to actually change the laws, decriminalize certain things, … they figured out they can elect District Attorneys to office,” he said.

  “And if the DA won’t prosecute crimes, they won’t seek sentencing enhancements. It doesn’t matter how many arrests the police make, the criminal won’t be held accountable.”

  The most common tactics of the DAs include establishing policies to not prosecute entire segments of crimes, such as theft under a certain threshold and non-violent offenses more broadly, as well as undercharge crimes to avoid mandatory minimum sentences. They also tend to avoid charges that would lead to “immigration consequences,” meaning serious charges that could trigger deportation of a criminal alien, according to Kennedy.

  “Victims are particularly ignored and disregarded by these offices,” he noted.

  Efforts of the DAs are sometimes amplified by state or local legislations that make it more difficult to put a criminal behind bars, such as by preventing judges from setting a bail.

  Fallout

  Implementation of the policies tends to coincide with increases in crime, though not necessarily across the board or right away. It appears it sometimes takes some time for criminals to learn the ropes of the new regime. Sooner or later, however, they start to take advantage of it, several experts have pointed out.

  “The message these individuals are receiving is that there’s not going to be any consequences for their actions. If they’re not going to be held on bail, if they’re not going to be prosecuted, then what’s the incentive for them not to keep repeating the same actions over and over and over again?” Smith said.

  The policies also tend to demoralize police, who may see their work as pointless if, upon arrest, the suspect is quickly back on the street.

  “Taking somebody to jail is a hassle because you have to get off your beat, get them in a car, take them down to booking, potentially spend hours filling out paperwork, all for what?” said Thomas Hogan, an adjunct fellow at the conservative Manhattan Institute and former federal prosecutor.

  Some departments have simply ceased to arrest people for the crimes they know won’t be prosecuted anyway, he said.

  There are exceptions, though.

  In New York City, crime has increased but arrests have gone up too. That’s because the NYPD deals with five different DAs, one for each borough, according to Hogan. Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg falls into the Soros-backed ranks, but the other ones are not necessarily onboard with the de-incarceration agenda—or at least not to the same extent. Moreover, the NYPD is large and powerful enough that they “do their own thing,” Hogan said.

  “NYPD’s response was, ‘You make your decisions what you’re going to do after we arrest them, but we’re going to arrest them anyway,’” he said.

  To some extent, the influx of Soros-backed DAs has “caught pro-public safety organizations, individuals, and the public off guard,” Kennedy said.

  “These are very sleepy races. Prosecutor races are low-attention, low-spending, low-on-the-ballot affairs.”

  Soros, however, went in with duffle bags of money.

  “It’s just unprecedented the relative amount of money he gives,” Kennedy said.

  “Giving a million dollars to a local DA candidate, what has occurred here in Northern Virginia, and millions of dollars to Philadelphia and Chicago and New York and Los Angeles … that is unprecedented and almost unfathomable.”

  Over the past decade, Soros and groups he substantially funds dished out over $40 million in direct spending on DA campaigns, according to a June report by the Law Enforcement Legal Defense Fund (LELDF), a Virginia-based nonprofit, which Kennedy co-authored (pdf).

  Before any formidable opposition could mobilize, Soros-backed candidates were sweeping up elections left and right.

  “He caught people off guard because nobody expected anyone to do that,” Kennedy said.

  …

  Countering the progressive DAs is no easy task, according to Kennedy, who’s personally helping with one recall effort in Northern Virginia.

  “And a lot of the jurisdictions where these prosecutors won, they are very difficult to dislodge because they are liberals in big liberal cities where the Democratic primary is the only game in town and all you have to do is appeal to very liberal Democratic primary voters,” he said.

  “If you have a lot of money and strong ideology, convincing that narrow subset of voters that your policies are just or working, or [that you] just need more time or whatever, is very easy to do.”

  Indeed, a number of the Soros-backed DAs have easily sailed through reelections already, though they did so “before crime really got out of control,” Kennedy said.

  “We will see what happens in the next few years if crime stays elevated, especially in these jurisdictions, if the public gets sick and tired of it.”

  In recent years, though, there has been some successful resistance to the progressive DAs.

  In Suffolk County, Massachusetts, a more law-and-order-minded DA won against the Soros-backed candidate in the Democratic primary, de-facto guaranteeing her election.

  In Baltimore County, a “tough-on-crime” Democrat defeated a Soros-backed challenger, Kennedy said.

  In Little Rock, Arkansas, a Republican defeated the Soros-backed Democrat for the Pulaski County DA office.

  On the other hand, Soros-backed candidates won in Portland, Maine, and rebuffed a challenger in Burlington, Vermont, earlier this year.

  Still, Soros’s success rate has dropped significantly, according to Kennedy.

  “Finally, the tide is turning where these Soros prosecutors don’t just waltz into office every time they go on the ballot,” he said.

  “When there’s organized opposition—and a good candidate to be honest—to oppose the Soros prosecutor, then we’re seeing success.”

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/30/2022 – 19:40

• 'Just Kidding': Biden Yanks Student Loan Forgiveness From 770,000 Borrowers
  ‘Just Kidding’: Biden Yanks Student Loan Forgiveness From 770,000 Borrowers

  In a jarring reversal, the U.S. Department of Education on Thursday quietly revised its online guidance on who qualifies for the $10,000 of student loan forgiveness that President Biden announced in August. In doing so, it pulled the rug out from under at least several hundred thousand people.  

  At issue: Borrowers who have Perkins loans and Federal Family Education Loans (FFEL). Those earlier-generation loans were guaranteed by the federal government but were issued and are managed by private lenders. The FFEL program ran from 1965 to 2010; Perkins loans ended in 2017. 

  People who have FFEL loans are older, have families, many obligations and are being crushed by this ongoing debt. Retirement? Gotta keep paying those student loans. New car? Appliances? Kids college? Nope. Nope.

  — as the crow flies🐉🌻 (@anandasara) September 30, 2022

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  Previously, the Department of Education’s online guidance said Perkins and FFEL loans could be consolidated into federal direct loans and then qualify for debt forgiveness.

  On Thursday, however, the Department of Education — without fanfare or a press conference — changed the rules by adding this content to its website: “As of Sept. 29, 2022, borrowers with federal student loans not held by ED cannot obtain one-time debt relief by consolidating those loans into Direct Loans.”

  This is no marginal change: An anonymous Biden administration official told Reuters it will affect 770,000 borrowers. That estimate relies on the fact that many of the 4 million total FFEL borrowers also have direct loans and can still qualify for consolidation.  

  “This is a gut punch, to say the least,” tweeted Betsy Mayotte, president of the Institute of Student Loan Advisors. “This is one of the most harmful decisions I’ve seen come out of the Ed in a long time.”

  The @FAFSA just updated their website to say that ffel borrowers who didn’t consolidate before 9/29 aren’t eligible for debt relief. As recently as yesterday the site said they were working on a solution for these borrowers. This is a gut punch to say the least…

  — Betsy Mayotte (@betsy514) September 29, 2022

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  The Education department says it’s “assessing whether there are alternative pathways to provide relief to borrowers with federal student loans not held by ED.”  

  The harsh withdrawal of the debt forgiveness from nearly a million or more Americans came on the same day that Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska and South Carolina asked a federal judge to impose an immediate temporary restraining order on entire the debt forgiveness scheme. 

  The suit specifically attacks the forgiveness of FFEL loans, arguing that doing so deprives private lenders of assets and “the ongoing payments that those loans generate.” 

  In their lawsuit, the states also more broadly allege that Biden is overstepping his authority by using the 2003 HEROES Act to wipe away the debt. That legislation focused on aiding active duty military service members serving in the war on terror. 

  “It is inconceivable, when it passed the HEROES Act, that Congress thought it was authorizing anything like the Administration’s across-the-board debt cancellation, which will result in around half a trillion dollars or more in losses to the federal treasury,” the six state attorneys general wrote in their filing. 

  The estimated cost of the debt forgiveness scheme has already soared in just the first month after it was announced. The Congressional Budget Office says it will cost at least $400 billion over three decades, far above earlier estimates of $300 billion. 

  Biden’s loan forgiveness proclamation was in keeping with a 2020 campaign pledge, and the announcement was clearly timed to maximize its impact on the midterm election. However, after Thursday’s jolting move by the Biden administration, some 770,000 to 4 million borrowers may be feeling a little less confident in Democratic governance. 

  Nigga said that student debt relief was a Labor Day Sale only https://t.co/8Zr7jQOMmq

  — Roadkill Ricky (@tkm11218) September 29, 2022

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  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/30/2022 – 19:30

• Libertarian Group Sues To Block Biden Student Loan Forgiveness
  Libertarian Group Sues To Block Biden Student Loan Forgiveness

  A California libertarian group has sued the Biden administration over its plan to cancel student debt, calling it an illegal overreach which will end up taxing some Americans whose debt is forgiven.

  

  “Congress did not authorize the executive branch to unilaterally cancel student debt,” said attorney Caleb Kruckenberg of the Pacific Legal Foundation, which filed the lawsuit – believed to be the first targeting Biden’s plan, AP reports. The Sacramento-based legal advocacy group filed the suit in Indiana, which is one of several states that plans to tax those whose debt is canceled by Biden’s plan.

  Kruckenberg says that it’s illegal for the executive branch to create such policy “by press release, and without statutory authority.”

  (Meanwhile, Biden is yanking student loan forgiveness for more than 750,000 borrowers who took federal government loans that were issued and managed by private lenders)

  The suit’s plaintiff is Frank Garrison, described as a public interest attorney who lives in Indiana and is employed by the libertarian group.

  Garrison is on track to get his student debt erased through a separate federal program for public servants. Although most borrowers will need to apply for Biden’s plan, Garrison and many others in that program will automatically get the relief because the Education Department has their income information on file. -AP

  Garrison, the plaintiff, says that Biden’s plan would automatically cancel up to $20,000 of his debt, which would trigger an “immediate tax liability” owed to the state of Indiana.

  “Mr. Garrison and millions of others similarly situated in the six relevant states will receive no additional benefit from the cancellation — just a one-time additional penalty,” read the suit.

  Other states which plan to debt forgiven debt under the Biden plan are; Arkansas, California, Minnesota, Mississippi, North Carolina and Wisconsin, unless lawmakers act to change their current laws.

  When asked how people could opt out of the debt forgiveness, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, who said ‘anyone can opt-out’ had no answers, after previously saying that roughly 8 million Americans would automatically receive the debt relief.

  “The bottom line is this — no one who does not want debt relief will have to get that debt relief,” she said.

  The White House has called the lawsuit “baseless,” suggesting that it’s nothing more than political opponents who “are trying anything they can to stop this program that will provide needed relief to working families.”

  Biden’s plan will cancel $10,000 in federal student debt for those making $125,000 per year or less, and $250,000 per household. Pell Grant recipients are set to receive an additional $10,000 benefit. 

  Conservative groups have called Biden’s plan legally questionable, and point out that the debt forgiveness unfairly cancels student debt at the expense of Americans who didn’t attend college – or paid off their loans.

  The Biden administration has repeatedly argued that the plan is on solid legal ground.

  In its legal justification for debt cancellation, the Biden administration invoked the HEROES Act of 2003, which aimed to provide help to members of the military. The law gives the administration “sweeping authority” to reduce or eliminate student debt during a national emergency, the Justice Department said in an August legal opinion.

  Education Secretary Miguel Cardona has said he has the legal authority to cancel debt for people who faced hardship during the pandemic. Cardona says Biden’s plan will ensure borrowers aren’t worse off after the pandemic than they were before. -AP

  “Nothing about loan cancellation is lawful or appropriate,” reads the lawsuit. “In an end-run around Congress, the administration threatens to enact a profound and transformational policy that will have untold economic impacts.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/30/2022 – 19:20

• Opioids At Work: Hidden Scourge Sapping The Economy
  Opioids At Work: Hidden Scourge Sapping The Economy

  Authored by James Varney via RealClear Wire,

  Strung out on drugs half her life, Brandi Edwards, 29, said the longest she held a job before getting sober four years ago was “about two and a half months.”

  “I worked at an AT&T call center, a day-care center for a month, fast food places, but I had to take drugs to get out of bed in the morning and when I did show up, I wasn’t productive,” the West Virginia mother of three told RealClearInvestigations. “The first paycheck came along and I was out of there.”

  

  In jail for the ninth time on drug-related charges, and separated from her children, Edwards had an awakening in “looking hard at what I’d lost.” Now clean for four years after rehab, she is married and back in her children’s lives with a home in Princeton, W. Va., and a steady job.

  But such success stories are too infrequent to offset the massive cost of the opioid epidemic to the American workforce. Only a couple of people in her former addict circle have returned to productive life, she says, while most are dead or incarcerated.

  That toll on labor, haunting America’s working present and future probably for years — if not decades — to come, is largely invisible and underreported because it is difficult to measure, according to physicians, counselors, economists, workers and public officials. But its staying power is suggested by other lasting national challenges, including the porous southern border — a major conduit for smuggled, Chinese-made fentanyl — and economic and social traumas set in motion by the coronavirus pandemic.

  In addition to untold years of productivity lost from fatal overdoses, the nation’s labor participation rate has shrunk steadily since 2000. Precise correlation is elusive, but any graph of that decline would stand in sharp contrast to the rise of opioid addiction in the U.S. And while it is difficult to calculate just how much drug use has caused absenteeism, tardiness and stretches of disability, the connection is strong, as Brandi Edwards’ experience suggests.

  “We’ve been writing about this for years but it doesn’t seem to get a lot of traction,” said Dr. Gary Franklin, a research professor at the University of Washington who served as the medical director of the state’s Department of Labor and Industries. “People have not realized how much opioids contribute to disability and lost productivity, and I don’t know if anyone has been able to put a number on that.” 

  Headline figures on lives lost in the opioid epidemic have been fairly clear for years. In 2021, more than 107,000 people died from drug overdoses, a nearly 15% increase from the year before and more than double the grim tally recorded in 2015, according to the Centers for Disease Control. All told, overdose deaths are seven times higher than they were in 1999.

  Synthetic opioids such as fentanyl, which law enforcement has tracked from labs in China along trafficking routes through Mexico on the southern border, are now driving the overdose epidemic. The CDC attributed 69,000 overdose deaths to synthetic opioids in 2020, 82% of the nation’s total that year. Heroin overdoses, meanwhile, went up 7% in 2020 to 13,000, according to CDC figures.

  That means synthetic opioids and heroin dwarf cocaine and methamphetamines, although totals for both of those have been rising for a decade and often cause overdose deaths in combination with opioids. The National Institutes of Health shows fewer than 5,000 people killed by cocaine alone and fewer than 10,000 by what it dubs “psychostimulants,” which includes methamphetamines, in 2020. 

  Less precisely, economists since at least 2017 have pegged at over $1 trillion the epidemic’s annual dollar cost in terms of deaths, law enforcement and “lost productivity.” 

  But the amount attributable to deaths – $550 billion of the $1 trillion – is largely conjecture because it is derived from actuarial estimates for lost years; for example, the decades cut from what would have been a normal working life for someone who fatally overdoses at age 45.

  Then there is the less lethal side of the equation — one that workers and employers grapple with daily. Roughly 8% of workplace fatalities in 2020 – 388 of 4,786 – were attributed to “unintentional overdose from nonmedical use of drugs,” according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, the agency said it is unclear “how many of these deaths involved opioids specifically.” 

  A post on a neighborhood social media platform asking about opioids’ dire impact in the workforce unleashes a barrage of firsthand horror stories. Homeowners speak of an inability to hire handymen, painters, landscape workers and the like.

  “If I’m lucky enough to have an employee that can pass a [urine analysis] the chances of them doing so after the first check is slim,” wrote a tree surgeon in suburban New Orleans. “Tree men get a terrible rap. People think we are all crazy, wild, no fear having, hard working dopeheads.”

  But he acknowledged some truth to the stories of workplace abuse of prescription opioids, mentioning laborers’ common habit of relying on increasingly higher-milligram dosages of pain pills like Percocet.

  Workers “didn’t wake up one day and say, ‘Hmmm, great day to go down a road that will cost me it all,’ ” he wrote. “Then it’s inevitable. We get hurt. Usually pretty badly. So we start out getting a few .5 [mg] maybe 7.5. Later, as our careers go so does the pain, so do the amounts needed to consume to keep it at bay.”

  A National Safety Council study reported that more than 75% of U.S. employers have been affected by employees’ prescription drug use, according to congressional testimony, and the National Institutes of Health estimates some 3 million Americans, including workers, are addicted to opioids. 

  Edwards managed to break her addiction and return to the workforce with the help of Jobs & Hope, a statewide West Virginia placement initiative launched in 2019 that claims more than 1,500 success stories. But with a budget of $3.1 million it cannot handle all of the 200-250 addicts referred to it each month, said Deb Harris, the group’s lead transition agent. 

  Businesses have been largely receptive to such programs, but the state is still trying to regain its footing from the “flood of pills” that hit it early in the 21st century, according to Dr. Matthew Christiansen, director of West Virginia’s Office of Drug Control in the Department of Health and Human Services.

  “We don’t keep a running tally at the state level, but the numbers have probably stayed pretty consistent or maybe gotten a little bit worse because of an increase in overdose deaths due to fentanyl,” Christiansen said.

  The Centers for Disease Control does keep a tally, although it hasn’t publicly updated the grim numbers on its “opioid dashboard” since 2017. The figures from that year show that the biggest economic hit has come in the Appalachian states around the Ohio Valley and in New England, two regions where opioids and synthetics have torn a hole through the workforce.

  For example, West Virginia, long considered ground zero in the opioid epidemic, had the biggest annual per capita loss due to opioids at $7,247, according to the CDC figures that include overdose deaths. That tops Ohio, where the per capita cost in 2017 was $6,226, and New Hampshire at $5,953. Ohio saw the highest overall economic cost, at $72.58 billion, followed by Massachusetts at $36.91 billion, according to the CDC. 

  Fixing opioid disorder costs is complicated by the fact much of it is now driven by black-market synthetic drugs like fentanyl and thus can no longer be tracked through prescriptions. Nor is substance abuse a topic that workers – or many employers – are comfortable quantifying. All those involved in coping with the epidemic, however, peg the cost as staggering.

  “It’s difficult to measure these things but it’s likely a substantial part of the labor decline,” said Michael Betz, an economist at The Ohio State University who researches opioid disorder issues. “You’re piecing together different pieces of evidence, but when you look at the decline in labor participation rates and opioid disorder figures, they match up pretty similarly.”

  Franklin’s team did calculate the odds opioids influenced the disability bills Washington state taxpayers foot each year for roughly 100,000 workers, a relatively uncomplicated tally since Washington is one of four states with a centralized government system and not a private workers’ compensation insurance market.

  “We found that two prescriptions of opioids for more than 7 days in the first six weeks after an injury doubled the risk of a worker being on disability one year later,” he said.

  Answers to broader questions on opioids’ baleful economic impact, however, are scarce.

  “Productivity losses due to anything is an extremely complex analysis and is not routinely tracked,” Franklin said.

  To date, the nation’s prime age labor workforce has not recovered to where it was at the beginning of 2020 and is now the lowest it has been in 45 years. The hit has been especially pronounced among older adults, according to the Government Accountability Office.

  Between 2015 and 2019, adults 50 years old or older “were an estimated 22 percent less likely to be in the labor force (either employed or actively seeking work),” a GAO report found. In addition, people in that age group “were an estimated 40 percent less likely to be employed; and employed older workers who misused opioids were twice as likely to have experienced periods of unemployment.” 

  Once again, however, pinpointing the precise connection between opioids and lost productivity remained elusive, as “the data did not allow GAO to determine causality.”

  Middle-aged white men have long comprised the single biggest group of annual overdose deaths, but between 2015 and 2020 the rate among black men skyrocketed to 54.1 per 100,000, topping white men’s 44.2 per 100,000, according to the Pew Research Center. 

  “Local economic conditions play some part in all this but they aren’t the key role; the main driver is the increase in supply,” Betz said.

  That leads some experts on the topic to conclude that opioids’ catastrophic hit to the United States’ workforce has been misconstrued. For a time, as deaths rose early on, particularly among middle-aged white men, and labor participation rates began their decline, the phrase “deaths of despair” took hold among some researchers.

  Under this theory, the opioid epidemic fed on declining economic prospects, particularly for middle-aged white men facing unemployment or shrinking incomes.

  But the “deaths of despair” theory reverses cause and effect, according to some physicians and people dealing with the fallout from opioids, including their more deadly synthetic cousin fentanyl.

  “We’ve debunked that,” said Dr. Andrew Kolodny, a faculty member at Brandeis University whose practice has specialized in opioid addiction. “Rather than economic conditions leading to overdose deaths it’s really the other way around – it’s not the economy driving them to death, it’s the opioid crisis affecting the economy.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/30/2022 – 19:00

• "Full-Fledged Ice Age": Semiconductor Companies Slash Output On Supply Glut
  “Full-Fledged Ice Age”: Semiconductor Companies Slash Output On Supply Glut

  Samsung Electronics, the world’s largest memory chipmaker, provided more insight into the worsening slowdown for semiconductors and the bust in global PC markets. 

  Korea Economic Daily reported Samsung “lowered its semiconductor sales forecast for the second half of the year by more than 30%.” The newspaper attributed slumping semiconductors demand “as the economy froze due to central bank rate hikes caused by global inflation.” 

  The paper warned: “As the semiconductor industry has entered a full-fledged ice age, there are many forecasts in the industry that the recession will continue until the first half of next year when semiconductor inventories are eliminated.” 

  Earlier this week, Samsung’s Device Solutions division said they “lowered our sales guidance for the second half of this year (the company’s internal forecast) by 32% from our April forecast.”

  None of this should be a surprise as we recently outlined PC Demand Suffers’ Steepest Decline In Years’ As Chip Shortage Turns To Glut. 

  “Both DRAM and NAND flash suppliers and customers are holding too many semiconductor inventories,” an official told Korea Economic Daily. 

  Another top semiconductor company, Japan’s Kioxia Holdings Corp, announced it would slash wafer production starts by 30% next month, according to Bloomberg.

  “The deep cuts stem from weakening demand for computers and smartphones, and the wider semiconductor industry is likely to follow the trend.

  “Hard times are ahead for the industry, except for a few,” said Kazunori Ito, an analyst with Morningstar. 

  These souring developments in the global semiconductor market come as the largest US manufacturer of memory chips, Micron, reported revenue that missed (despite a slight beat on EPS and margins), but it was the forecast that again was a total disaster. 

  Micron offered one of the most significant recession warnings so far from a large corporation: “results were impacted by rapidly weakening consumer demand and significant customer inventory adjustments across all end markets.” It added that due to the sharp decline in near-term demand, it expects “supply growth to be above demand growth in calendar 2022.”

  “Yes, we have a challenging market environment, but we’re responding rapidly with actions … fiscal 2023 is, of course, an unprecedented environment, but the long-term drivers are intact,” Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said in an interview. 

  But it’s just not memory chips. We pointed prices of graphics processing units (GPUs) have plunged to their lowest levels ever in China, and chip deflation was already washing ashore in the US. 

  The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) has fallen 40% since peaking in late 2021, and the weekly 200-day moving average is being tested. 

  

  Earlier this week, Bloomberg reported Apple ditched plans to increase iPhone production due to a lack of demand. Weeks ago, FedEx warned that the global economy is “going into a worldwide recession.”

  If both the semi-industry and top shippers are warning about economic turmoil ahead, then it’s probably time to start preparing for a possible recession in 2023. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve continues to hike into a slowdown aggressively — this is a recipe for an epic policy error. 

  On the bright side, now, or at least in the months ahead, it might make sense to build a computer as it seems components, such as memory chips, GPUs, and CPUs, could be heavily discounted. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/30/2022 – 18:40

• Stagflation Is "Just The Beginning" For America's Economic Crisis: Peter Navarro
  Stagflation Is “Just The Beginning” For America’s Economic Crisis: Peter Navarro

  Authored by Tom Ozimek and Joshua Philipp via The Epoch Times,

  Economist Peter Navarro, erstwhile adviser to former President Donald Trump, told Epoch TV’s “Crossroads” program in a recent interview that the current stagflationary downturn stalking the U.S. economy is “just the beginning” of America’s economic woes, and that Trump is the one who’s best poised to pull the country out of a dire slump.

  

  Navarro said in the interview that he believes the United States has fallen prey to the destructive force of stagflation—a toxic combination of high inflation and sluggish growth.

  “That’s what we’ve got now because of the fecklessness of Joe Biden, the Congress, the Federal Reserve, and this administration,” he said.

  There’s been fierce debate about what led to prices accelerating at their fastest pace in decades, eroding purchasing power, and squeezing American households.

  Some, including many members of the Biden administration, have mostly blamed supply-side constraints and external shocks like the war in Ukraine. Others, including many Republicans, have pointed the finger at unprecedented levels of fiscal and monetary spending.

  The inflationary wave that has swelled into a persistent cost-of-living crisis for many Americans was driven mostly by a stimulus-fueled demand surge, although supply-side bottlenecks made the problem worse, a team of economists concluded in a recent study.

  Soaring inflation, which Fed officials have admitted is far more persistent than they initially believed, has come alongside deteriorating economic conditions. The U.S. economy contracted for two consecutive quarters this year, according to updated figures released by the government on Sept. 29, which meets the rule-of-thumb definition for a recession.

  ‘This Is Just the Beginning’

  Navarro argued in the interview that the United States is already experiencing stagflation—and that it’s going to get worse.

  “This is just beginning. This economic crisis is just beginning, and it’s going to be as bad or worse and as long as it was during the 1970s,” Navarro said.

  The dreaded toxic brew of high unemployment and high inflation plagued the U.S. economy for over a decade in the 1970s. America’s unemployment rate doubled to 9 percent between 1973 and 1975, while inflation peaked at around 14 percent in annual terms.

  Inflation didn’t fall substantially until the early 1980s, and only after the Federal Reserve jacked up interest rates to around 19 percent, leading to two back-to-back recessions in 1980 and 1981–82.

  In the interview, Navarro offered a lookback on the Trump administration’s economic policies and credited them with low unemployment and low inflation.

  “What we did was structural in nature, designed to increase the real wages of American workers, the productivity of American workers, the prosperity of the middle class,” Navarro said.

  “And we did that beautifully through structural elements, not just the traditional Republican tax cuts and lower regulatory burdens, but by securing the southern border, which prevents a flood of uneducated, low-income workers coming in,” he said.

  Navarro added that Trump’s policies on re-shoring manufacturing and bringing supply chains back to the United States helped boost wages for blue-collar Americans.

  The economist further argued that bringing back Trump-era policies is key to pulling the country out of stagflation.

  “I think the only one who fully understands how to get out of that is Donald Trump,” Navarro said. “I don’t see anybody else in the Republican Party who has that kind of sophistication.”

  His take on the trajectory of the U.S. economy dovetails with remarks made by other economists, who see darkening clouds on the horizon.

  ‘Stagflationary Debt Crisis’

  Economist Nouriel Roubini, for example, who’s been dubbed “Dr. Doom” for his pessimistic, yet accurate, prediction of a financial market meltdown in 2007–08, told Bloomberg in a recent interview that he expects “a real hard landing” for the U.S. economy.

  Roubini also said he continues to believe that it’s “delusional” for analysts to expect a short and shallow recession, arguing instead that it will be long and severe.

  In an op-ed for Project Syndicate, he also warned of a looming “stagflationary debt crisis” with “some of the worst elements of both the 1970s and the 2008 crash” as public debt levels have become unsustainable and most of the fiscal ammunition already used.

  “Things will get much worse before they get better,” he predicted in the op-ed, adding that he believes the economic downturn will come alongside financial market turmoil.

  Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller said at a recent investor summit in New York City that he’s worried that the economic downturn affecting United States could be worse than an “average garden variety” recession.

  At the same time, investor pessimism has hit levels not seen since the financial crisis of 2008–09.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/30/2022 – 18:20

• Apple VP Of Procurement Fired After Joke About Fondling Breasts Goes Viral On TikTok
  Apple VP Of Procurement Fired After Joke About Fondling Breasts Goes Viral On TikTok

  Apple’s Vice President of Procurement, Tony Blevins, is out at the company after making a “crude comment about his profession” in a TikTok video that was published on September 5.

  Blevins joked that he fondles “big-breasted women” for a living in the video, Bloomberg reported this week. He had been approached by TikTok and Instagram creator Daniel Mac to participate in a series where owners of expensive cars are asked about what they do for a living. 

  He was stopped when parking his Mercedes-Benz SLR McLaren, a car worth “hundreds of thousands of dollars”, the report says.

  When asked about what he does for a living, he responded: “I have rich cars, play golf and fondle big-breasted women, but I take weekends and major holidays off.” He also joked that he had a “hell of a dental plan”.

  As Bloomberg noted, the line is an homage to the 1981 movie Arthur, where the main character describes his career by saying: “I race cars, play tennis and fondle women, but I have weekends off and I am my own boss.”

  

  The video was taken at a car show in Pebble Beach and it garnered more than 40,000 likes on Instagram and 1.3 million views on TikTok. 

  Blevins’ actual job is striking deals between suppliers and partners for Apple. Recently, he helped navigate deals for the company with Globalstar, Qualcomm and Intel, the report notes. He is in charge of “driving down the costs” of the critical supplies Apple uses for its products. 

  The company conducted an internal investigation into his remarks and removed his team – including about 6 people who reported directly to him and several hundred others under them – from his command. 

  He had been at Apple for 22 years prior to being let go. He was part of a group of about 100 VPs at the company, and just one of about 30 executives, that report directly to either CEO Tim Cook or COO Jeff Williams. Williams ultimately made the call to let Blevins go, the report says, and he will oversee Blevins’ team for the time being.

  In a statement, Blevins said: “I would like to take this opportunity to sincerely apologize to anyone who was offended by my mistaken attempt at humor.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/30/2022 – 18:02

• Memory Holed, Part II: The "Rigged" Election
  Memory Holed, Part II: The “Rigged” Election

  Authored by Matt Taibbi and Matt Orfalea via TK News,

  Matt Orfalea’s follow-up video his “The Russians Hacked the Election” piece rescues for posterity another key piece of history likely to be suppressed: the fact that both Democrats and Republicans raised doubts about the legitimacy of the election process. This took place not only after 2016, but both before and after the 2020 vote.

  These campaigns were two sides of the same coin. Trump raised doubts about the reliability of mail-in votes, and admonished supporters ahead of time that a Trump loss should be understood as a fix. Meanwhile, Democrats and media figures — as well as a seemingly endless succession of named and unnamed intelligence sources — argued Russians were bent on corrupting the vote. Hillary Clinton went so far as to say Joe Biden shouldn’t concede “under any circumstances.”

  It was not just a Republican-versus-Democrat issue. Both before and during the 2020 Democratic primaries, voters were also told repeatedly that Vladimir Putin preferred Bernie Sanders and was planning to interfere on his behalf. Even GQ did a story: “Why Does Putin Love Bernie?”

  

  Sanders undermined his own campaign by giving these accusations weight, while Trump was criticized for pushing back against them. This video offers a crucial takeaway for anyone looking back to decipher what happened in 2020: both parties, and crucially our own intelligence authorities, worked hard to undermine election results in advance. And, they’re still doing it.

  Subscribe to TK News

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/30/2022 – 17:40

• US Hits Chinese Firms With New Sanctions Over Iranian Oil
  US Hits Chinese Firms With New Sanctions Over Iranian Oil

  The US has slapped new sanctions on Chinese firms related to Iran’s petrochemical and petroleum trade, after years of reports of Chinese tankers engaged in sanctions-busting activity, and at a moment that a finalized restored JCPOA nuclear deal has all but collapsed.

  US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced punitive measures Thursday against two China-based companies, Zhonggu Storage and Transportation Co Ltd and WS Shipping Co Ltd, which stand accused of sanctions evasion.

  

  The former has been identified as overseeing a commercial crude oil storage facility for Iranian products, and the latter operated a vessel which was caught ‘illegally’ transporting Iranian oil and fuel products.

  These companies were said to be involved in the “sale of hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of Iranian petrochemicals and petroleum products to end users in South and East Asia.”

  And further according to the US Treasury readout, the actions target “Iranian brokers and several front companies in the UAE, Hong Kong, and India that have facilitated financial transfers and shipping of Iranian petroleum and petrochemical products.”

  “These entities have played a critical role in concealing the origin of the Iranian shipments and enabling two sanctioned Iranian brokers, Triliance Petrochemical Co. Ltd. (Triliance) and Persian Gulf Petrochemical Industry Commercial Co. (PGPICC), to transfer funds and ship Iranian petroleum and petrochemicals to buyers in Asia.”

  While Iran has been subjected to crippling oil-export sanctions for the last several years, it hasn’t stopped China, whose imports of Iranian oil have only increased by the month.

  Much of the buying comes from independent Chinese refiners (otherwise known as “teapots”), who, traders said have embraced Iran’s cheaper crude as Brent prices soared globally amid the ongoing war in Ukraine and energy sanctions against Russia.

  The official position of China’s foreign ministry has long been that normal business dealings between China and Iran should be respected. “China urges the US to lift the illegitimate unilateral sanctions as soon as possible,” the ministry has long repeated in various statements.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/30/2022 – 17:20

• Watch: Yet Another Democrat Witness Claims Biological Men Can Have Pregnancies
  Watch: Yet Another Democrat Witness Claims Biological Men Can Have Pregnancies

  Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

  For the umpteenth time, a witness called to testify by Democrats during hearings on abortion laws claimed that biological men are capable of getting pregnant and giving birth.

  

  They’re the party of science!

  During a House Oversight Committee hearing Thursday, Planned Parenthood’s Medical Director for Primary and Trans Care (yep that’s a thing) made the claim.

  GOP rep Andrew Clyde asked Dr. Bhavik Kumar “So can biological men become pregnant and give birth?” to which Kumar replied “Men can have pregnancies, especially trans men.”

  Clyde followed up, “So, are you saying that a biological female who identifies as a man and therefore becomes pregnant is, quote, a man? Is that what you’re saying?”

  Kumar responded, “These questions about who can become pregnant are really missing the point, and I’m here to talk about what’s happening in Texas.”

  “This is me asking a question and you answering,” Clyde interjected, adding “I’m asking the question, sir, not you.”

  “Right, and I’m answering the question,” Kumar replied, further stating “Somebody with a uterus may have the capability of becoming pregnant whether they’re a woman or a man, that doesn’t make a difference.”

  “Ok, we’re done,” an exasperated Clyde responded adding “This isn’t complicated. Let me tell you: if a person has a uterus and is born female, they are a woman. That is not a man, and the vast majority of the world considers that to be a woman, because there are biological differences between men and women.”

  “I Can’t believe it’s necessary to say this, but men cannot get pregnant and cannot give birth regardless of how they identify themselves,” Clyde asserted, adding “Why in the world would Democrats bring in a person whose title is director of trans care for an abortion hearing when only biological women can become pregnant?”

  Clyde then re-read Kumar’s opening statement, in which the Planned Parenthood Director described abortion restrictions as “inherently racist, inherently classist and fundamentally part of the white supremacy agenda.”

  Clyde then noted that the organization Kumar works for was founded by Margaret Sanger.

  “Margaret Sanger’s entire focus was to decimate communities of color through abortion to eliminate their future generations,” Clyde urged.

  “How many abortions have you performed in your lifetime?” the rep then asked Kumar, to which the doctor replied “Likely thousands.”

  Clyde shot back, “So as doctor yourself, do you believe you have terminated enough babies to justify Margaret Sanger’s beliefs and your continuance of her legacy? This is unconscionable, this is inexcusable, I’m thankful this is now criminal and I look forward to the day when life is again respected across our entire nation.”

  Watch:

  Elsewhere during the hearing, Kumar suggested that natural disasters warrant unimpeded abortions:

  Kumar did admit, however, that Abortion bans “do not outlaw care for ectopic pregnancies”.

  Kumar made the comments while being questioned by Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who scoffed at Republicans who don’t believe men can get pregnant.

  “The same folks who … told us that COVID’s just a flu, that climate change isn’t real, that January 6 was nothing but a tourist visit … are now trying to tell us that transgender people are not real,” AOC proclaimed.

  “And I would say that their claim is probably just as legitimate as all their others, which is to say not very much at all,” she further stated.

  Rep. @AOC (D-NY): “The same folks who tell us … that COVID’s just a flu, that climate change isn’t real, that January 6th was just nothing but a tourist visit, are now trying to tell us that transgender people aren’t real.” pic.twitter.com/NQbdK5ltGT

  — The Recount (@therecount) September 29, 2022

  Democrats keep presenting a rogues gallery of agitated and clearly mentally unstable people as ‘witnesses’ during these hearings, all of whom have claimed that men can give birth, a notion that almost one quarter of Democratic voters believe to be true, according to recent research.

  *  *  *

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  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 09/30/2022 – 17:00