Today’s News 20th July 2022

  • 15,000 Illegals Ferried To UK This Year As High Court Hears Challenge Against Rwanda Policy
    15,000 Illegals Ferried To UK This Year As High Court Hears Challenge Against Rwanda Policy

    Authored by Lily Zhou via The Epoch Times,

    The number of illegal immigrants who entered the UK by crossing the English Channel in small boats has reached 15,000 so far this year, official figures show.

    It comes as the high court is hearing a challenge brought against the government’s new policy to put eligible illegal immigrants, including asylum seekers, on one-way flights to Rwanda.

    On Monday, 330 people in seven boats were escorted ashore by British authorities, bringing the total number this year to 15,107, according to official figures compiled by PA News Agency.

    Crossings continued for 11 consecutive days by Monday—the longest successive run so far in 2022. There have been crossing detected on 13 of the 18 days so far this month.

    The highest daily total for 2022 to date was recorded on April 13 when 651 people made the crossing in 18 boats.

    The highest monthly total for 2022 to date was recorded in June when 3,136 arrived in 76 boats.

    According to Home Office figures, the number of channel-crossing immigrants soared in recent years, with 28,526 people detected arriving on small boats in 2021, compared to 8,466 in 2020, 1,843 in 2019, and 299 in 2018.

    A record 1,185 people made the crossing to the UK on Nov. 11, 2021—the highest figure recorded since the start of 2020.

    Cumulative successful arrivals in the UK by people crossing the English Channel in small boats. (PA Graphics)

    Since the UK’s exit from the European Union, few illegal immigrants who came via safe countries in Europe were successfully returned to Europe.

    In April, the British government signed a new deal with Rwanda allowing the UK to ship eligible illegal arrivals to the east African country in order to deter dangerous Channel crossing, with an initial flight chartered for June 14, reportedly costing £500,000.

    But some 47 people who were meant to be on the Boeing 767 were crossed off the list one by one following their lawyers’ challenges, and the flight was effectively grounded after the European Court of Human Rights made a last-minute intervention by removing the last remaining passenger from the flight.

    In written submissions filed for a preliminary hearing on Tuesday on behalf of four charities and eight individuals, Raza Husain QC said that recently provided documents showed that Rwanda had initially been excluded from the shortlist of potential countries “on human rights grounds.”

    In a report (pdf) published on Monday, Parliament’s Home Affairs Committee criticised the Home Office for making policy announcements “before detailed policy has been worked through, tested, and even agreed between government departments.”

    The report said “much more clarity is required” on the Rwanda policy, including the cost, the effectiveness of the tactic in deterring channel crossings, and how to ensure the long-term mental and physical well-being of those relocated.

    According to data from the UN’s refugee agency, at least 120,441 people arrived in Europe via the Mediterranean by land and sea in 2021.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/20/2022 – 02:00

  • Chris Hedges: War With Iran?
    Chris Hedges: War With Iran?

    Authored by Chris Hedges via ConsortiumNews.com,

    The United States, Saudi Arabia and Israel, responsible for military fiascos, hundreds of thousands of deaths and innumerable war crimes in the Middle East, are now plotting to attack Iran.

    Illustration by Mr. Fish — “Biden at Bat”

    The United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia are plotting a war with Iran. The 2015 Iranian nuclear arms accord, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which Donald Trump sabotaged, does not look like it will be revived.  U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) is reviewing options to attack if Teheran looks poised to obtain a nuclear weapon and Israel, which opposes U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, carries out military strikes.

    During his visit to Israel, Biden assured Prime Minister Yair Lapid that the U.S. is “prepared to use all elements of its national power,” including military force, to stop Iran from building a nuclear weapon. 

    Saudi Arabia, Israel and the U.S. function as a troika in the Middle East. The Israeli government has built a close alliance with Saudi Arabia, which produced 15 of the 19 hijackers in the Sept. 11 attacks and has been a prolific sponsor of international terrorism, supporting Salafi jihadism, the basis of al-Qaeda, and such groups as the Afghanistan Taliban, Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and the Al-Nusra Front.  

    The three countries worked in tandem to back the 2013 military coup in Egypt, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who overthrew its first democratically elected government. He has imprisoned tens of thousands of government critics, including journalists and human rights defenders, on politically motivated charges. The Sisi regime collaborates with Israel by keeping its common border with Gaza closed to Palestinians, trapping them in the Gaza strip, one of the most densely populated and impoverished places on earth. 

    Israel, the only nuclear power in the Middle East, has conducted an ongoing campaign of covert attacks on Iranian nuclear sites and nuclear scientists. Four Iranian nuclear scientists were assassinated, presumably by Israel, between 2010 and 2012. In July 2020, a fire, attributed to an Israeli bomb, damaged Iran’s Natanz nuclear site. In November 2020, Israel used remote control machine guns to assassinate Iran’s top nuclear scientist. 

    In January 2020, the United States assassinated Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force, along with nine other people including a key figure in the anti-ISIS coalition, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. It used an MQ-9 Reaper drone to fire missiles into his convoy, near Baghdad’s airport. 

    Iranian Restraint

    If similar attacks had been carried out by Iranian operatives inside Israel, it would have triggered a war. Only Iran’s decision not to retaliate, beyond lobbing about a dozen ballistic missiles at two military bases in Iraq, prevented a conflagration. 

    On July 7, Iran informed The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that  it is using IR-6 centrifuges with “modified subheaders.” The declared purpose of the enrichment process at its underground facility at Fordow is to create uranium isotope enriched up to 20 percent — far below the 90 percent enrichment levels necessary to create weapons-grade uranium. Under the JCPOA agreement, enrichment levels were capped at 3.67 percent.

    Israel has allocated $1.5 billion for a potential strike against Iran and, during the first week of June, held large-scale military exercises, including one over the Mediterranean and in the Red Sea, in preparation to attack Iranian nuclear sites using dozens of fighter aircraft, including Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets.  

    The 2016 Memorandum of Understanding signed by President Barack Obama provides a 10-year, $38 billion military package for Israel. 

    Israel and its lobby in the U.S. are working to scuttle  negotiations with Iran to monitor its nuclear program. The preparation for war mirrors the Israeli pressure on the U.S. to invade Iraq, one of the worst strategic decisions in U.S. history. 

    Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, in testimony before the British Iraq war commission, offered this account of his discussions with George W. Bush in Crawford, Texas in April 2002:

    “As I recall that discussion, it was less to do with specifics about what we were going to do on Iraq or, indeed, the Middle East, because the Israel issue was a big, big issue at the time. I think, in fact, I remember, actually, there may have been conversations that we had even with Israelis, the two of us, whilst we were there. So that was a major part of all this.”   

    Saudi Arabia, which seeks to dominate the Arab world, severed ties with Iran in 2016 after its embassy in Tehran was stormed by protesters following Riyadh’s execution of Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr. Saudi Arabia, with Chinese help, has built a plant to process uranium ore and acquired ballistic missiles. Saudi Arabia signed a series of letters in 2017 with the U.S. to purchase weapons totaling $110 billion immediately, and $350 billion over the next decade.

    Awar with Iran would be a catastrophe of unimaginable proportions.  It would spread swiftly throughout the region. The Shiites across the Middle East would see an attack on Iran as a religious war against Shiism. The two million Shiites in Saudi Arabia, concentrated in the oil-rich Eastern province; the Shiite majority in Iraq; and the Shiite communities in Bahrain, Pakistan and Turkey would join the fight against the U.S. and Israel. 

    Iran would use its Chinese-supplied anti-ship missiles, rocket and bomb-equipped speedboats and submarines, mines, drones and coastal artillery to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, the corridor for 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquified gas supply. Oil production facilities in the Persian Gulf would be sabotaged.

    Iranian oil, which makes up 13 percent of the world’s energy supply, would be taken off the market. Oil would jump to over $500 a barrel and perhaps, as the conflict drags on, to over $750 a barrel. Our petroleum-based economy, already reeling under rising prices because of the sanctions on Russia, would grind to a halt.

    Israel would be hit by Iranian Shahab-3 ballistic missiles. Hezbollah’s store of Iranian-supplied rockets that allegedly can reach any part of Israel, including Israel’s nuclear plant at Dimona, would also be deployed. Strikes by Iran and its allies on Israel, as well as on American military installations in the region, would leave hundreds, maybe thousands, dead.

    In 2002, the U.S. military conducted its “most elaborate war game” ever, costing over $250 million. Known as the Millennium Challenge, the exercise was between a Blue Force (the U.S.) and the Red Force (widely considered as a stand-in for Iran). It was meant to validate America’s “modern, joint-service war-fighting concepts.” It did the opposite. The Red Force, led by retired Marine lieutenant general Paul Van Riper, conducted a swarm of kamikaze suicide boat attacks and destroyed 16 U.S. warships in under 20 minutes.

    When the war game was reset, it was rigged in favor of the Blue Force. The Blue Force was given access to experimental technology – including that which doesn’t exist such as airborne laser weapons. Meanwhile, the Red Force was told they weren’t allowed to shoot down the Blue Team’s aircraft, had to keep their offensive weapons in the open and could not use chemical weapons. Even then, the Blue Force could not achieve all of its objectives as Riper unleashed a guerrilla insurgency on the occupying forces.

    The US-Saudi Tandem

    President Joe Biden and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz greeting at Al-Salam Palace in Jeddah, on Friday. (Saudi Press Agency/Wikipedia)

    Why shouldn’t Joe Biden be feted by the murderous regime of Saudi Arabia and the apartheid state of Israel? He and the U.S. have as much blood on their hands as they do. Yes, in 2018 the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, ordered the assassination and dismemberment of my friend and colleague Jamal Khashoggi. Yes, Israel assassinated Palestinian journalist Shireen Abu Akleh. But Washington has more than matched the crimes carried out by Israel and the Saudis, including against journalists. 

    The imprisonment of Julian Assange – who released the collateral murder video showing U.S. helicopter pilots laughing as they shot to death two Reuters journalists and a group of civilians in Iraq in 2007 – is designed to destroy Assange psychologically and physically. The corpses of civilians, including children, piled up by Israel and Saudi Arabia, who do much of their killing in Gaza and Yemen with U.S. weapons, don’t come close to the hundreds of thousands of dead the U.S. has left behind in the two decades of warfare it has perpetrated in the Middle East. 

    In 1991, a U.S.-led coalition destroyed much of Iraq’s civilian infrastructure, including water treatment facilities resulting in sewage contaminating the country’s drinking water. Then followed years of U.S., U.K. and French airstrikes enforcing a “No Fly Zone” along with crushing sanctions they imposed via the U.N. From 1991 to 1998, these sanctions alone were estimated to have killed 100,000 to 227,000 Iraqi children under the age of five, although the exact figures have been the subject of much dispute.

    The U.S. “Shock and Awe” bombing campaign of Iraqi urban centers during its subsequent invasion of Iraq in 2003 dropped 3,000 bombs on civilian areas, killing over 7,000 noncombatants in the first two months of the war. 

    By one estimate, the U.S. has been responsible for directly or indirectly killing nearly 20 million people since the end of the Second World War. 

    Israel and Saudi Arabia are gangster states. But so is the United States.

    “There are few of them,” Biden, reacting to Democratic lawmakers who have criticized Israel’s treatment of the Palestinians, told Israel’s Channel 12 news. “I think they’re wrong. I think they’re making a mistake. Israel is a democracy. Israel is our ally. Israel is a friend and I make no apologies.”

    The angst about Biden’s not holding the Saudis and the Israelis to account on this visit is risible, as if we have any credibility left that allows us to arbitrate between right and wrong.

    The idea that Biden and the U.S. are brokers for peace was eviscerated long ago. The U.S. offers shameless support for Israel’s right-wing government, including vetoing U.N. resolutions that censor Israel.

    It refuses to condition aid on a respect for human rights even as Israel launches repeated murderous assaults against the civilian population in Gaza, labels Palestinian NGOs as terror groups, expands illegal Jewish-only settlements, carries out aggressive housing evictions of Palestinian families and mistreats Palestinian and Arab-American citizens at points of entry and within the Occupied Palestinian Territories.

    The idea that the U.S. represents and promotes virtue illustrates the self-delusion that accompanies America’s moral and physical degeneration. The rest of the world, which recoils in repugnance at what the U.S. has become, does not take it seriously. They fear U.S. bombs. But fear is not respect.

    They no longer envy America’s hedonistic mass culture, tarnished by mass shootings, social inequality, the decay of infrastructure, dysfunction and a Grand Guignol-style of politics that has turned civil and political discourse into a tawdry burlesque.

    America is a grim joke, one about to be made worse when the Christian fascists, bigots and conspiracy theorists take control of Congress in the fall, and I expect, the presidency two years later.

    The U.S., along with Israel, makes war on Muslims who, with an estimated 1.9 billion adherents, comprise nearly 25 percent of the world population. The U.S. has turned many in the Muslim world into its enemies. The Muslim world does not hate the U.S. for its values. It hates its hypocrisy. It hates its racism, its refusal to honor their political aspirations, its lethal attacks and military occupations and its crippling sanctions.

    Muslims express the rage felt by Guatemalans, Cubans, Congolese, Brazilians, Argentines, Indonesians, Panamanians, Vietnamese, Cambodians, Filipinos, North and South Koreans, Chileans, Nicaraguans and Salvadorans – those Frantz Fanon called “the wretched of the earth.” They too were slaughtered by the U.S. high-tech military machine and subjugated, humiliated, forced to accept U.S. hegemony and killed in American clandestine torture centers or by C.I.A.-backed assassins.

    No one is held accountable. The C.I.A. blocked all investigations into its torture program, including destroying videotape evidence of interrogations involving torture and classifying nearly all of the 6,900-page report by the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence that examined the C.I.A.’s post-9/11 program of detention, torture and other abuse of detainees. 

    Biden goes to Saudi Arabia and Israel as a supplicant. As a presidential candidate, he called Saudi Arabia a “pariah” and vowed to make it “pay the price” for Khashoggi’s murder.

    But with the rising price of oil, Biden is whitewashing the murder, along with the humanitarian disaster the Saudis have caused in Yemen, imploring the Saudis to increase output, a plea Prince Salman has rejected.

    Similarly, Biden is weak in Israel, powerless against the expansion of Jewish settlements and assaults on Palestinians, and unwilling to move the U.S. Embassy back to Tel Aviv from Jerusalem, a move by the Trump administration that violates international law.

    Biden’s staff was reduced to pleading with the Israelis not to embarrass him as they did during his 2010 visit as vice president. During his 2010 visit, Israel announced it was building 1,600 new Jewish-only houses in illegal settlements in occupied East Jerusalem. The Obama White House angrily condemned “the substance and timing of the announcement.”

    How can the U.S. bar Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela from a summit of the Americas in Los Angeles and embrace the Saudi regime and the Israeli aparatheid state? How can it decry the war crimes of Russia and unleash industrial violence on the Mulism world?

    How can it plead for the 12 million Uyghurs, mostly Muslim, living in Xinjiang, and ignore the Palestinians? How can it justify another “preemptive war,” this time against Iran?

    The duplicity is not lost on most of the world. They know who the U.S. is. They know that in American eyes they are unworthy. The inevitable demise of the U.S. on the world stage is cheered by the majority of the planet. The tragedy is that, as it goes down, it is determined to take so many others down with it.

    *  *  *

    AUTHOR’S NOTE TO READERS: There is now no way left for me to continue to write a weekly column for ScheerPost and produce my weekly television show without your help. The walls are closing in, with startling rapidity, on independent journalism, with the elites, including the Democratic Party elites, clamoring for more and more censorship. Bob Scheer, who runs ScheerPost on a shoestring budget, and I will not waver in our commitment to independent and honest journalism, and we will never put ScheerPost behind a paywall, charge a subscription for it, sell your data or accept advertising. Please, if you can, sign up at chrishedges.substack.com so I can continue to post my now weekly Monday column on ScheerPost and produce my weekly television show, The Chris Hedges Report.

    This column is from Scheerpostfor which Chris Hedges writes a regular columnClick here to sign up for email alerts.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/19/2022 – 23:25

  • Court-Packing House Dems Demand Four New Seats On Supreme Court
    Court-Packing House Dems Demand Four New Seats On Supreme Court

    A group of House Democrats on Monday pushed for Congress to add four seats to the US Supreme Court in order to overcome the panel’s 6-3 conservative majority.

    At a Monday press conference hosted by ‘Take Back the Court Action Fund,’ Democratic lawmakers decried recent rulings from the Court which overturned the landmark abortion precedent in Roe v. Wade, which followed a decision which prohibited New York from restricting concealed carry permits.

    Eight House Democrats, including Reps. Andy Levin (MI), Jan Schakowsky (IL), Rashida Tlaib (MI), Sheila Jackson Lee (TX), Mondaire Jones (NY), Ed Markey (MA) and Senator Hank Johnson (GA) were at the conference.

    According to Rep. Hank Johnson (D-GA), the Supreme Court is “making decisions that usurp the power of the legislative and executive branches.”

    Republican politicians made controlling the judicial branch part of their platform, said Rep. Mark Takano (D-Calif.), adding that the court has “gone rogue” and “become a radical institution.” 

    The lawmakers also emphasized that the longevity of the lifelong terms the sitting justices are now serving makes action to expand the court more urgent. 

    Of 72-year-old conservative Justice Samuel Alito, Johnson said, “You can see the gleam in his eye as he thinks about what he wants to do to decimate the rights of people and put us back in the Dark Ages.” -The Hill

    And of course, they’re framing the current USSC configuration as “court packing” by the Republicans – when in fact Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s decision not to retire when Obama could have appointed another liberal Justice, and GOP lawmakers’ lawful refusal to confirm an Obama nominee after the death of Justice Antonin Scalia – allowing President Trump to appoint Neil Gorsuch, followed by Brett Kavanaugh (replacing Anthony Kennedy), and Bader’s replacement Amy Coney Barrett, are what led to the Court’s current weighting.

    The nightmare scenario of GOP court-packing is already upon us,” said Rep. Jones, adding “That’s how they got this far-right 6-3 majority in the first place.”

    As The Hill notes, Congress has changed the number of justices on the court seven times.

    Regardless, the measure is unlikely to succeed, as Democrats are not expected to be able to clear the filibuster’s 60-vote threshold in the Senate.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/19/2022 – 23:05

  • Faster Spreading Omicron Variants Hit China, Sparking Lockdown Concerns
    Faster Spreading Omicron Variants Hit China, Sparking Lockdown Concerns

    Authored by Alex Wu via The Epoch Times,

    Two, more infectious, COVID-19 Omicron variants were detected in China, and a new round of outbreaks has quickly spread to more than 20 of China’s 31 provinces in 2 weeks. Two big cities in western China have been locked down, while major Chinese port cities are conducting mass testing. All of this is sparking concerns about more lockdowns and economic repercussions.

    Fourteen COVID-19 cases were reported on July 17 in China’s southwestern city Chengdu in Sichuan Province. The patients are infected with Omicron variant BA.2.12.1, which hadn’t been seen in China before.

    According to mainland Chinese media China Business Network, as of July 18 as many as 10 subvariants of Omicron have been detected across the country since the first locally confirmed case of BA.5 variant was reported in China’s megacity Xi’an on July 6.

    Public research data shows that the Omicron BA.2.12.1 variant strain is more infectious than the original variant of Omicron. Its transmission speed is 1.2 times that of the BA.2 variant. Both BA.2.12.1 and BA.5 can escape vaccine-elicited antibodies.

    Faster Spreading Variants Causing Lockdowns of Big Cities

    On July 18, authorities ordered a 7-day lockdown of Chengdu, the provincial capital with a population of 16.3 million. During that time, nobody is allowed to leave the city without a negative COVID-19 nucleic acid test result from the last 48 hours.

    The official notice also states that indoor entertainment venues such as bars, KTVs, gyms, and various public cultural and sports venues in the city are temporarily shut down. Large-scale conferences are not allowed to be held in the city for the time being, in-person training and religious activities are suspended, no catering services for banquets, and various clinics are prohibited from accepting patients with a fever.

    As the more infectious variants BA.5 and BA.2.12.1 are spreading in China, authorities in more big cities have ordered lockdowns, partial lockdowns, or district control.

    Security staff stand guard at the entrance of a residental area following COVID-19 cases in Zhangye in China’s northwestern Gansu Province, on Oct. 23, 2021. (STR/AFP via Getty Images)

    Many areas in Lanzhou, the capital city of Gansu Province, population 3.8 million, are under lockdown, and nearly 10,000 residents have been sent to centralized isolation facilities for quarantine due to the new outbreak.

    Ms. Chen, the owner of a restaurant in Chengguan District of Lanzhou, told The Epoch Times on July 18 that the city was shut down last week. “The epidemic here is very serious. The entire area is locked down. All shops and restaurants have been closed since last week. Everyone is ordered to stay at home and not allowed to go out.”

    Ms. Zhang, a resident of Yantan Road of Chengguan District in Lanzhou City also told The Epoch Times on July 18 that the city was already under lockdown.

    “Because of the outbreak, the whole city of Lanzhou is shut down. You can’t get in. There are policemen standing on the streets, and you are not allowed to walk on the street. Taxi services are stopped. All the communities [neighborhoods] in the city are closed.”

    The Epoch Times called Yanbei Street office in Chengguan District and the Lanzhou CDC but couldn’t get through.

    Meanwhile, mass COVID-19 testing is conducted in the mega port cities of Shanghai and Tianjin, sparking fears of another round of city-wide lockdowns that would further worsen the Chinese economy and disrupt the global supply chain.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/19/2022 – 22:45

  • Chipotle Closes First Of Its Stores To Vote For Union
    Chipotle Closes First Of Its Stores To Vote For Union

    In what’s being decried as “union-busting 101,” Chipotle Mexican Grill just permanently closed the first of its stores nationwide where employees voted to pursue unionization

    At 7:39am on Tuesday, a Chipotle Northeast “people experience partner” emailed employees to notify them that Chipotle was pulling the plug on their store on Stephen King Drive in Augusta, Maine.

    The closure comes just four weeks after employees petitioned the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to arrange a unionization election. On July 11, a Delta Township, Michigan Chipotle’s became the second location in the country to make that move. As we reported last week, union-organizing across the country has surged to a six-year high, with Starbucks a notable target.     

    For lack of workers, the store has been closed to the public since June 17, but the company kept it open for training and continued paying Augusta employees while not actually serving customers. Now, laid-off workers will receive pay for scheduled shifts this week plus four weeks of severance based on the hours worked in the last two weeks. 

    In a statement, Chipotle’s chief corporate affairs officer Laurie Schalow said the chain had gone to “extraordinary lengths” to staff the Augusta location, to include assigning two recruiting experts to support the store: 

    “Despite these efforts, we have been unable to adequately staff this remote restaurant with crew and continue to be plagued with excessive call-outs and lack of availability from existing staff. We have had an even more difficult time finding managers to lead the restaurant. Because of these ongoing staffing challenges, there is no probability of reopening in the foreseeable future, so we’ve made the decision to permanently close the restaurant.” 

    Workers are planning a Tuesday evening rally to demand the store be reopened. “Chipotle is playing dirty and we’re fighting back! Join us at 5pm to protest the closure of our store and tell them that union busting is bad business! …Bring your signs and your voices and stand up with Chipotle United!” the group said on Twitter 

    That didn’t last long: Augusta, Maine “Chipotle United” workers after their June 23 union vote (Maine AFL-CIO via Bangor Daily News)

    The week before the June 23 union vote, employees staged a two-day walkout to protest what they described as unsafe working conditions. Specifically, in a letter to management, 10 employees said that alleged understaffing put employees at risk of cutting themselves and each other: “Prep work such as dicing and slicing vegetables is done in the kitchen during our busy times out of necessity, creating a hazard for crew members rushing to cover so much extra work around the knives.”

    Augusta Chipotle employee and Chipotle United member Brandi McNease told WGME TV

    They waited until the morning of the [NLRB] hearing to close the store and then claimed we couldn’t elect to form a union because we’re permanently closed. This is union busting 101 and there is nothing that motivates us to fight harder than this underhanded attempt to shut down the labor movement within their stores. They’re scared because they know how powerful we are and if we catch fire like the unionization effort at Starbucks, they won’t be able to stop us.”

    McNease told the Bangor Daily News:

    “For a company that gave a bonus to its CEO that was 1,700 times more than the median Chipotle worker’s pay in 2020, I don’t believe for a minute that they couldn’t afford to hire a manager and enough staff to keep this store running. Chipotle has the money to attract workers and pay them living wages, but it would prefer to use it to pay exorbitant dividends to their shareholders.

    Apparently, McNease knows a lot more about guacamole than Chipotle stock. The company has never paid a dividend.  

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/19/2022 – 22:25

  • Ignore The Unproductive Central Planners And Use Bitcoin
    Ignore The Unproductive Central Planners And Use Bitcoin

    Authored by Marty Bent via BitcoinMagazine.com,

    The unproductive class is doing its best to ruin the global economy. This class is made up of politicians, bureaucrats and central bankers that have been enabled by a global administrative state expanding at an ever-increasing pace since the end of World War II. Those individuals who make up the unproductive class do not produce anything of value for the world despite what they would like you to think, which is that they are an essential part of order in the world. In fact, the unproductive class should probably be more aptly described as the counterproductive class as everything they do seems to create friction for those who actually bring valuable productive skills and expertise to the world.

    Hell, it has even gotten to the point where it isn’t a far fetched idea to believe that the unproductive class is actively being counterproductive in an attempt to push the masses into a fearful and desperate state that would make them more susceptible to being manipulated to act against their short- and long-term best interests. Your crazy Uncle Marty has reached this conclusion. One can only witness so many coincidental “incompetent blunders” in a row over the course of several years before beginning to grow suspicious that something nefarious is afoot.

    • Forced lockdowns.

    • Printing trillions.

    • Normalizing masks, which have been proven not to work.

    • Mandating experimental vaccines.

    • Energy policy that decreases availability and reliability while increasing costs.

    • Food policy that leads to shortages.

    When isolated, it is easy to write each off as a policy mistake that anyone could have made in the heat of the moment. However, when you take a step back and consider that these policies across different domains have been flung at the public at an incredible pace and in conjunction with one another globally, it is extremely hard to come to any other conclusion besides there is a coordinated effort to completely restructure society in the eyes of those in power: the unproductive class of psychotic central planners. If the unproductive class that is coordinating on an international level, control the money, the energy, the food and eliminate bodily autonomy, they will have successfully subjugated the world.

    Don’t look now freaks, but the unproductive class does have a high degree of control over all of those things at the moment. I would argue that we have already been subjugated. The masses of men do not find themselves in a position where they need to figure out how to defend against a looming subjugation. They find themselves in a position where they better recognize they have been subjugated and work quickly to break free while the door to freedom is still cracked and in a position where it can be kicked open with a bit of effort.

    Bitcoin is the wedge that is keeping the door cracked and the more prominent it becomes, the higher the chances that the masses of men will escape subjugation by the unproductive class. The power over the money is the base from which the unproductive class operates. If one has the central authority to create and destroy monetary units and decide who can and cannot receive or send those monetary units, they can essentially centrally plan an economy. Bitcoin allows us to rip that central control away from the unproductive class. This is just the first step, though.

    To fully cut the unproductive class away from the levers of control, the productive class must begin to secure the layers outside of money using bitcoin. One of the highest layers and easiest to disrupt is energy. Bitcoin mining provides many avenues by which energy producers can begin to pry themselves away from the unproductive class wielding the money printer. The easiest way to do so is by monetizing their stranded energy directly via bitcoin mining.

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    By converting previously wasted resources to censorship resistant hard money, energy producers can begin to bolster their balance sheets in a worst case scenario — buy relatively expensive ASICs during at the peak before a bear market — and supercharge them or, in a best case scenario — buy relatively cheap ASICs at the bottom before a bull market. Increasing the efficiency of your assets is always a good thing, but it’s a great thing when that efficiency (in this case, utilizing previously underutilized assets) brings increased profits. This is step one.

    Step two kicks in when energy producers realize the power of the Bitcoin network and begin to demand that they get paid in sats for selling their precious energy resources to the market. When this happens, the script will be completely flipped on the unproductive class. With the insanity of ESG mandates increasing as time goes on, the likelihood of this script flipping increases.

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    It is not hard to see an attack on energy producers from the unproductive class pushing insane ESG mandates on the markets where they begin to try to freeze the bank accounts of producers who decide not to play along with the madness. If and when this point is reached, it will probably instill a ton of fear in these energy producers, but they should not fear. They have leverage on their side because they produce energy, which is vital for human flourishing. As we’re discovering rather quickly, when energy supply chains break down, it has dire consequences. When push comes to shove, the smart humans will begin to ignore the unproductive class and attempt to acquire the energy they need in any way possible. Luckily for those smart individuals Bitcoin exists and it is there to offer them a censorship resistant network through which they can settle energy trades. Sats for power will become the norm.

    It would be nice if it didn’t reach this point, and the best way to prevent it from getting to that point is for energy producers to frontrun the censorship by beginning to settle their trades in sats instead of cuck bucks. The question that remains is: How quickly is the productive class going to take initiative and preemptively remove the unproductive leeches from the equation?

    *  *  *

    The above is a direct excerpt of Marty’s Bent Issue #1337: “Ignore the unproductive central planners.” Sign up for the newsletter here.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/19/2022 – 22:05

  • China Belatedly Calls Out John Bolton's Coup-Planning Admission
    China Belatedly Calls Out John Bolton’s Coup-Planning Admission

    China has belatedly reacted to the coup-plotting admission of former White House national security adviser and longtime neocon foreign policy architect John Bolton. In a live interview last week with CNN’s “The Lead”, Bolton casually admitted to having planned “coups d’etat” in the past while being questioned about Trump’s role on Jan.6. “As somebody who has helped plan coups d’etat—not here but, you know, [in] other places—it takes a lot of work,” Bolton had boasted.

    During a Monday press briefing, spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry Wang Wenbin was scathing in his critique of the interview, saying that “overthrowing foreign governments is deep in the bones of how the US conducts its foreign policy.”

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    “Bolton’s admission is so revealing,” he continued. “Leading US politicians trumpet the so-called ‘rules-based international order’ for one purpose: to ensure that the US can easily interfere in other countries’ affairs and overthrow their governments at its own will.”

    “This is exactly the kind of ‘rules’ and ‘order’ that people like Bolton want absolutely to defend. The people of the world, however, will not let them,” Wang added.

    China and Russia have long held up the disastrous US invasions and occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan in particular as evidence that Washington is addicted to regime change, and further that it hypocritically denounces other countries while employing moralistic language, despite its well-known human rights abuses killings of civilians in regions like the Middle East.

    Continuing this theme of Beijing’s, Wang said in his Monday comments, The US’ acts of regime change remain unchecked even after the end of the Cold War. For years, the US has created political unrest in Latin America, played a part in the Arab Spring, and instigated color revolutions in Europe and Asia.”

    Some of the earliest and fiercest reaction in the wake of Bolton’s CNN interview came out of Latin America. For example, former Bolivian president and socialist leader Evo Morales denounced Bolton, saying, “It is proof that the US is the worst enemy of democracy and life.” Additionally, Maduro’s Venezuela held a formal vote in parliament condemning Bolton’s remarks as “an extraordinary feat of brazenness” – also calling him “crazy”.

    Washington relations with China have soured further over the Russian war in Ukraine, given calls for Beijing to unreservedly denounce the invasion have been met with silence. China has further gone so far as to urge to West to take seriously Moscow’s security demands related to NATO expansion.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/19/2022 – 21:45

  • Ex-COVID Czar Birx Admits Virus "Came Out Of The Box Ready To Infect"
    Ex-COVID Czar Birx Admits Virus “Came Out Of The Box Ready To Infect”

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Former top White House COVID-19 adviser Deborah Birx said Sunday that COVID-19 “came out of the box ready to infect” when it was first detected in Wuhan, China, in 2019.

    Dr. Deborah Birx (R) speaks alongside former President Donald Trump and Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Dr. Anthony Fauci during a briefing at the White House in Washington, on March 29, 2020. (Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images)

    Speaking to the Daily Mail, Birx said that COVID-19 “was already more infectious than flu when it first arrived,” saying that most viruses take months or years to become highly transmissible among humans.

    Birx, who had worked under former President Donald Trump, told the paper that either COVID-19 was “an abnormal thing of nature” or that Chinese scientists at the Wuhan Institute of Virology were “working on coronavirus vaccines.” Researchers could have contracted the virus before spreading it to others or it escaped from the lab, she said.

    Lab Leak

    It happens, labs aren’t perfect, people aren’t perfect, we make mistakes and there can be contamination,” Birx said, noting that individuals with COVID-19 can be asymptomatic. “Someone working in the lab with one of the strains could’ve caught it and not known they had it,” she said.

    An aerial view shows the P4 laboratory at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in Wuhan in China’s central Hubei Province on April 17, 2020. (Hector Retamal/AFP via Getty Images)

    The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) could have reduced deaths if officials told health leaders that the virus can spread asymptomatically, she said.

    China was implying that they were containing it, but asymptomatic spread cannot be contained without testing,” Birx told the publication. “I think the world lost several months of preparation because we were thinking there wasn’t that level of human-to-human spread when there clearly was.”

    While some news outlets and so-called fact-checking websites labeled the lab leak hypothesis as a conspiracy theory, top U.S. officials conceded later in 2021 that it’s within the realm of possibility. A report released by the 17-agency Intelligence Community in 2021 shows that some federal officials believe the virus emerged from the Wuhan laboratory, according to the White House in a May 26 news release.

    Chinese officials, meanwhile, have claimed the virus was first found in December 2019, emerging from a wet market in Wuhan about 10 miles from the lab’s location. It was later revealed by the National Institutes of Health that it provided funding to researchers who were carrying out research on bat coronaviruses.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/19/2022 – 21:25

  • NBC Journalist Laments: "People Don't Trust Us, They Don't Believe Us"
    NBC Journalist Laments: “People Don’t Trust Us, They Don’t Believe Us”

    Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

    An NBC journalist embraced a rare moment of self-awareness when she admitted, “people don’t trust us, they don’t believe us.”

    The comments were made by Katy Tur during an interview with The Hill to promote her new book.

    “The trust in media, in newspapers and television, is hitting an all time low,” said Tur as she looked forlorn.

    “People don’t trust us. They don’t believe us, and it makes me wonder if this job —as I’m currently doing it– is effective, but if it’s doing more harm than good,” she added.

    Wow, finally a journalist who has accepted the horrific state of her industry.

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    Tur made the comments in response to a new Gallup poll which finds that, “Just 16% of U.S. adults now say they have ‘a great deal’ or ‘quite a lot’ of confidence in newspapers and 11% in television news.”

    “Hear me out for a second here — have you considered not lying?” remarked Chris Menahan. That’s a rhetorical question — of course the answer is no. The media’s only concern is how to best package the regime’s lies in a way that’s “effective.”

    With the public showing a total lack of trust in the media, the baton has been handed to so-called ‘fact checkers’, who are just offshoots of legacy media outlets, to try to control the narrative by ‘debunking’ dissenting views.

    However, now they’re losing credibility too, leading them to try to pressure Big Tech to ban their competition, with fact checkers explicitly stating their reason for doing so is that no one is interested in watching ‘fact checker’ content on platforms like YouTube.

    As we highlighted last month, CNN’s ratings continue to collapse, down 63% from just a year ago, and CNN+ was a dismal failure.

    The network’s new leader is now ordering hyper-partisan hacks to stop giving their biased opinions on everything and concentrate on delivering actual news.

    *  *  *

    Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

    In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Get early access, exclusive content and behinds the scenes stuff by following me on Locals.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/19/2022 – 20:45

  • Wave Of Profit Downgrades May Have Just Kicked Off
    Wave Of Profit Downgrades May Have Just Kicked Off

    By Cormac Mullen, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and analyst

    The long anticipated wave of global earnings downgrades looks like it may have begun, though for now at least it’s more of a ripple.

    Forward earnings estimates for the MSCI AC World Index have come down by over one percent from their early June high. Analysts still seem reluctant to take a knife to profit forecasts despite the threat of recession, something they had no qualms about doing with bottom-up price targets at the first sign of equity weakness this year.

    Those peaked in late January and have been slashed by about 12%. That ties in with the narrative that investors are reining in the multiples they are prepared to pay for stocks in a new and uncertain inflationary regime. Stocks have fallen quicker than price targets though, as evidenced by the rising upside expected for the global equity benchmark — now just over 25%.

    With global blue chips from Apple to Microsoft to Google vocally preparing for a slowdown in growth, that upside is likely to be an illusion until earnings estimates reset much lower.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/19/2022 – 20:05

  • Next Round Of Heat Tests China's Ability To Keep Factories Humming
    Next Round Of Heat Tests China’s Ability To Keep Factories Humming

    Another round of dangerous heat is forecasted to plague large swaths of China as the nation’s power grid is pushed to the brink. Factories have already received power rationing notices to stabilize the grid and thwart rolling blackouts, ensuring sufficient supply for air-conditioners. The last thing China needs is social unrest amid the mortgage boycott crisis

    China Meteorological Administration expects temperatures in the southern region, including Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and Fujian provinces, to reach between 39 and 42 degrees Celsius (102.2 Fahrenheit and 107.6 Fahrenheit) through late August. 

    For the last two weeks, China has been boiling with temperatures of 35 degrees Celsius (95 Fahrenheit). The next round of heat apocalypse appears to be arriving on Wednesday. 

    Last week, the nation’s electricity generation hit a record high due to soaring cooling demand, forcing the government to ration power to polyester and textile factories in Zhejiang province, according to the South China Morning Post. Other electricity-hungry export factories were also rationed power to ensure grid stability. 

    Another round of heat comes as nationwide power shortages worsen supply chain problems. Disruptions from power shortages could be nearing as Bloomberg points out that some coal-fired power plants in the country’s coastal area have rapidly depleted stockpiles. Some power plants have only ten days of usage, warned consultant Fenwei Energy Information Service Co. 

    Besides energy-intensive factories rationing power, office buildings and shopping malls have reduced power usage. 

    Eleven provinces have sent alerts to industrial users for “orderly consumption” that would limit supply when air-conditioning demand jumps. Among the affected regions, Jiangsu has already cut power to just 20% of normal levels in some places and threatened to switch off the electricity to factories consuming excessive amounts, according to industrial news outlet Chemical Fiber Group. -Bloomberg

    Fenwei Energy also said that utility companies are under pressure because of high coal costs, resulting in losses for some coal-power generators. China’s COVID Zero policy made things worse by restricting coal imports and the movement of shipments within the country to utilities. 

    The electricity shortage and power rationing at factories will dampen economic growth in the world’s second-largest economy and worsen supply chain problems. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/19/2022 – 19:45

  • Mexican President Intervenes With Biden, Renews Asylum Offer For Julian Assange
    Mexican President Intervenes With Biden, Renews Asylum Offer For Julian Assange

    Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

    On Monday, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said he delivered a letter to President Biden last week where he pleaded for the US not to prosecute Julian Assange and renewed an offer to grant asylum to the WikiLeaks founder.

    Lopez Obrador said he explained in the letter that Assange “did not cause anyone’s death, did not violate any human rights and that he exercised his freedom, and that arresting him would mean a permanent affront to freedom of expression.”

    Image source: AP

    The Mexican leader said that he previously offered asylum to Assange in a letter to President Trump at the end of his term and again at the beginning of the Biden administration. Last month, Lopez Obrador called Assange “the best journalist of our time.”

    Assange faces up to 175 years in prison for exposing US war crimes by publishing documents he received from whistleblower and former Army soldier Chelsea Manning. Lopez Obrador said earlier this month that if Assange is sentenced to life in prison, there should be a campaign to dismantle the statue of liberty.

    “If they bring him to the US and sentence to the ultimate penalty, to death in prison, then we will have to initiate a campaign for dismantling the Statue of Liberty, presented by the French, because it will no longer be a symbol of liberty,” he said.

    While Lopez Obrador is outspoken in his support for Assange, who is an Australian citizen, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is not. Albanese has rejected calls for him to demand that Washington drop its extradition request.

    Assange is currently being held in London’s Belmarsh Prison. British Home Secretary Priti Patel has approved the extradition of Assange to the US, and the WikiLeaks founder’s legal team lodged an appeal to her ruling on July 1.

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    Assange is indicted on 17 counts of espionage and one count of conspiracy to commit a computer crime for his role in obtaining and publishing the leaks provided by Manning. But Assange used standard journalistic practices to obtain the information, something many human rights groups, journalist organizations, and UN officials have pointed out.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/19/2022 – 19:25

  • Stellantis Ends Its Manufacturing Joint Venture In China
    Stellantis Ends Its Manufacturing Joint Venture In China

    Stop us if you’ve heard this one before, but another U.S. manufacturer is calling it quits on a joint venture in China. 

    Stellantis, the auto maker responsible for mainstays such as Dodge Ram pickup trucks, said that a “lack of progress” has caused it to abandon its joint venture with China’s Guangzhou Automobile Group Co. Ltd.

    The company is instead going to focus on importing vehicles to the country instead of manufacturing them there, the Wall Street Journal noted this week. Stellantis also has a joint venture in China with Dongfeng, to manufacture Peugeot and Citroën brands.

    Dongfeng Motor Group Co. Ltd. said recently it planned on selling its 3.16% stake in Stellantis, the Journal reported. 

    The company commented: “Stellantis intends to cooperate with GAC Group in an orderly termination of the joint venture formed in March 2010, which has been loss-making in recent years.”

    JV’s in China haven’t been easy for foreign manufacturers while local brands have flourished, the report says. Chinese domestic-brand vehicles saw sales up 18% during the first half of 2022, despite the country’s Covid lockdowns. Foreign JVs saw sales fall 6% over the same time. 

    At the beginning of this year, Stellantis had previously planned  to increase its stake in its partnership with GAC to 75% from 50%, the report says. GAC snubbed Stellantis the day they announced their intention, putting out a statement that said it “deeply regrets that this release is not agreed by us.”

    Chief Executive Officer of Stellantis Carlos Tavares has cited geopolitical risk as a reason “not to over-invest in China, particularly in owning factories,” the Journal wrote. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/19/2022 – 19:05

  • 81-Year-Old Fauci Responds To Reports On Him Leaving, Says He's "Not Going To Retire"
    81-Year-Old Fauci Responds To Reports On Him Leaving, Says He’s “Not Going To Retire”

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

    White House chief medical adviser Anthony Fauci clarified Tuesday that he doesn’t plan to retire after he said Monday that he was going to step down from his government position at the end of President Joe Biden’s term.

    Fauci told Politico on Monday morning that he did not expect to stay in his current position when the term ends in January 2024. The move triggered speculation that Fauci would retire before then.

    “I’m not going to retire. No, no, I’m not going to retire. I may step down from my current position at some time,” Fauci told The Hill

    “I said a very innocent but true thing. I said whether it’s Donald Trump or it’s Joe Biden’s second term, I don’t intend to be in my current position in January of 2025,” he added.

    Fauci, 81, has headed the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease since 1984 but became a household name in early 2020 when he began delivering interviews to media outlets about the COVID-19 pandemic, essentially serving as the federal government’s chief pandemic spokesperson.

    “What happens between now and then I have not decided, but the one thing I do know is that I have other things that I want to do in a professional way that I want to have the capability—while I still have the energy and the passion to do them,” he told The Hill Tuesday.

    As the pandemic dragged on, Fauci became a polarizing figure for his often dire predictions about the trajectory of COVID-19’s spread in the United States. Meanwhile, he’s championed mask and vaccine mandates while dismissing assertions that those rules restrict people’s freedom.

    The U.S. Supreme Court in January struck down the Biden administration’s vaccine-or-test rule, saying that the Occupational Safety and Health Administration exceeded its authority.

    Several weeks ago, Fauci said he contracted COVID-19 despite having received four vaccine doses. Last week, Fauci raised more headlines when he told Fox News that COVID-19 vaccines “don’t protect overly well … against infection,” although he said that they instead protect individuals against severe disease and hospitalization.

    Also in the interview with Politico, Fauci also said the world will be living with COVID-19 for some time.

    “We’re in a pattern now. If somebody says, ‘You’ll leave when we don’t have COVID anymore,’ then I will be 105. I think we’re going to be living with this,” he said, adding, “What we have right now, I think we’re almost at a steady state.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/19/2022 – 18:45

  • China Furious Over Reports Pelosi To Visit Taiwan In August
    China Furious Over Reports Pelosi To Visit Taiwan In August

    House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s planned trip to Taiwan has predictably sparked outrage in China, with Beijing slamming the potential trip as causing “grave harm” and threatening “forceful measures” if she goes through with it.

    She would be the first Speaker of the US House of Representatives – which is third in line to the US Presidency – to visit the country in 25 years after Republican speaker Newt Gingrich visited in 1997. In April she nearly sparked a major diplomatic row with China after it emerged she would stop over in Taiwan while on a southeast Asian trip. But (perhaps only too conveniently), she tested positive for Covid-19 days ahead of the expected tour, leading to cancelation altogether.

    Via Reuters

    Word of a rescheduled trip set for August has left Beijing furious. FT is citing “Six people familiar with the situation” who say “Pelosi would take a delegation to Taiwan in August.”

    During the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s daily briefing on Tuesday, spokesman Zhao Lijiang vowed “resolute and strong measures” if she goes through with it. He said a visit by the US House Speaker would “severely undermine China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, gravely impact the foundation of China-U.S. relations and send a seriously wrong signal to Taiwan independence forces.”

    “If the U.S. were to insist on going down the wrong path, China will take resolute and strong measures to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Zhao added.

    The quick condemnation and scathing statements reminding Washington that it must stick by the ‘one China’ principle are similar to China’s reaction in April. Given that prior trip never materialized (again, due to her announced Covid diagnosis), she was able to quietly back out and many observers chalked up the entire planned Taiwan trip to “rumor” given neither the US nor Taipei side ever confirmed it.

    In these latest remarks Zhao didn’t indicate precisely what counter-US or counter-Taiwan steps China would take. It comes also amid Beijing demanding the Biden administration cancel a proposed 5th package of arms to Taiwan, totaling $108 million, and as Beijing is challenging the status of the Taiwan Strait as “international waters”. 

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    Some Chinese state-linked pundits are going so far as to warn that Pelosi’s visit could spark military conflict between Taiwan and China. Among them, former editor-in-chief of the Communist Party’s Global Times has blasted the “risky” visit for which she would “bear historical responsibility for possibly triggering military conflict in the Taiwan Strait.”

    So the question remains: will the 82-year old speaker go through with it? Or perhaps, she’ll conveniently come down with a last minute case of “Covid” again (maybe Monkeypox?); or possibly, she’ll be busy bailing out her husband Paul. The region is especially on edge given growing comparisons to the Ukraine war – a comparison which China has consistently rejected.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/19/2022 – 18:25

  • Seven Major Effects Of COVID-19 On Parents, Students, & Schools
    Seven Major Effects Of COVID-19 On Parents, Students, & Schools

    Authored by Bruno Manno via RealClearEducation.com,

    COVID-19 disrupted American K-12 education, with calamitous consequences for young people. Here are seven realities that resulted from that calamity.

    Four describe the tragedy, and three explain what advocates and stakeholders are doing to overcome it.  

    1. Parents know that there are problems and want new solutions.

    More than two-thirds (69%) of parents say that they’re worried their child isn’t on track in school, almost twice as many as the 35% who were worried about this pre-pandemic. Nearly six in ten want schools to continue using statewide tests to show what students are learning so that schools will know where to focus assistance. Nearly two-thirds (63%) of parents worry about their child’s mental health. All this leads nearly six in ten (56%) to want schools to rethink how they educate children and create new ways to teach children.

    2.  COVID-19 led to much less student learning.

    Analysts at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) studied mathematics and reading test scores across the country, tracking what students learned using online instruction compared to what they learned in reopened schools. Online instruction was associated with growing achievement gaps, especially for black and Hispanic students attending high-poverty schools. The average student learning remotely lost the equivalent of 13 weeks of in-person instruction, a gap that reached 22 weeks for students in high-poverty schools. The average student in reopened schools lost between 7 and 10 weeks of in-person instruction. Other studies reach similar conclusions, including one that found pandemic learning loss greater than that experienced by New Orleans students after schools closed following Hurricane Katrina.

    3. COVID-19 changed young people’s college-going plans.

    The 2022 high school graduating class lived more than half their school time during the pandemic. Nearly 1 in 3 seniors (28%) have changed their post-high school plans since the pandemic began, up from 18% in a spring 2020 survey. Three out of four (74%) seniors report that they want to go to college, though they’re now facing new challenges. There are significant differences across student groups, with seniors who are Hispanic, black, and male less likely to want to go to college than those who were seniors in 2019.

    4. COVID-19 affected young people’s mental health.

    The Surgeon General issued a public advisory report with troubling information. Mental-health visits for children aged five to 11 increased by 24% compared to 2019, with visits for 12- to 17-year-olds rising almost 31%. The National Center for Education Statistics reports that since the start of the pandemic, 70% of public schools experienced an increase in the number of children seeking school mental-health services, with 76% of school staff voicing concerns about students showing signs of depression, anxiety, and trauma. The General Accounting Office found that during the 2020-21 school year a higher percentage of teachers using online or combining online and in-person learning reported that their students experienced learning difficulties than did teachers in an in-person environment.

    There are reasons for optimism. Here are three promising pathways to overcoming the COVID-19 learning calamity.

    5. Many parents responded to this calamity by voting with their feet.

    Parents enrolled children in new non-public school education settings, shrinking public school enrollment since 2020 by almost 1.3 million students (though some of this decline owes to decreasing birth rates and immigration). Parents enrolled their children in private and parochial schools, micro-schools, and learning pods, with homeschooling reaching record enrollment levels. In particular, large urban districts experienced a significant student exodus, especially those with lengthy periods of remote-only learning. For example, over the last two years, New York City schools lost around 64,000 students; Los Angeles around 43,000 students; and Chicago around 25,000 students.

    6. State and local public school leaders are responding to the calamity.

    States and school districts have received $190 billion in federal pandemic education funding. Money is being used to implement programs that accelerate student learning, including evidence-based ones like intensive small-group tutoring; competency-based instruction that develops specific student knowledge and skills; summer school; extra instruction in core subjects; lengthening the school year; and offering modest financial incentives and other rewards to students, parents, and teachers. 

    7. Policymakers are creating new options for parents and young people.  

    Elected state leaders have expanded school-choice options or created new ones, including open enrollment across school district boundaries, vouchers, tax-credit scholarships, and education savings accounts. This has produced a more pluralistic K-12 system with more educational options for families and students.

    School closures produced an education and mental-health calamity for young people. The debate about whether school closures were mistaken will continue. The onus is now with K-12 advocates and stakeholders to do whatever it takes to support families and students in their efforts to make up lost ground.

    *  *  *

    Bruno V. Manno, a former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Education, is senior advisor to the Walton Family Foundation’s education program. Some of the research described in this piece was supported financially by the Foundation.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/19/2022 – 18:05

  • GoFundMe For Suspected Gunman's Family Hits $20,000
    GoFundMe For Suspected Gunman’s Family Hits $20,000

    GoFundMe has allowed a fundraiser for the family of a now-deceased Minneapolis shooting suspect to reach $20,000 – despite the donation platform removing similar campaigns for Kyle Rittenhouse and Jose Alba – both of whom acted in self-defense.

    Andrew Tekle Sundberg was fatally wounded by police after a six-hour standoff in a Minneapolis apartment complex last Thursday after he allegedly fired bullets into the apartment of a single mother of two while she was cooking dinner, KARE11 reports.

    According to the search warrant, which was issued Thursday morning, while attempting to evacuate the apartment building, “officers started taking fire,” prompting them to exit the building. At that point, Minneapolis police requested assistance from the Minneapolis SWAT Team, the warrant reads.

    When the SWAT Team arrived, two snipers set up on the roof of a nearby apartment building, according to court documents. “At some point during the standoff, the two snipers shot the male subject,” the search warrant reads. The man, later identified as Sundberg, was transported the HCMC where he later died. Minneapolis city officials identified the two officers as Aaron Pearson and Zachary Seraphine.

    Of note, the GoFundMe page for Sundberg had initially raised more than the victim’s GoFundMe, however after a tweet by Rebecca Brannon (@RebsBrannon) went viral, the fundraiser for the woman, Arabella Foss-Yarbrough, hit more than $60,000 as of this writing.

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    In the family’s GoFundMe, Subdberg is described as “a brother, uncle, son, friend, talented artist, hilarious, energetic human.” Donations are promised to go towards his funeral expenses, food and other aid for his family, the Daily Caller reports.

    In the past, GoFundMe has banned fundraising campaigns for people accused of being involved in violent crimes that the platform found to be in violation of its policies. The site banned some fundraisers seeking to help fund Kyle Rittenhouse’s legal defense prior to his acquittal and took down a fundraiser for Jose Alba, a New York bodega worker who allegedly stabbed and killed a man in self-defense, according to Newsweek.

    GoFundMe’s terms of service say that it does not allow fundraisers for the “legal defense of alleged crimes associated with hate, violence, harassment, bullying, discrimination, terrorism, or intolerance of any kind.” The terms of service also say the platform keeps the prerogative to prohibit “any other activity that GoFundMe may deem, in its sole discretion, to … be unacceptable or objectionable.”

    One donor paid $5 to Sundberg’s page just to be able to tell the family that they should donate the proceeds of the fundraiser to the victim’s family.

    GoFundMe told the NY Post: “The fundraiser, ‘T.S. Family Funds,’ states donations will go toward funeral, food, and family expenses,” adding “Fundraisers for these types of expenses are allowed under GoFundMe’s terms of service.”

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/19/2022 – 17:45

  • China's Fuel Exports Plunge
    China’s Fuel Exports Plunge

    By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

    China’s exports of gasoline and diesel slumped in the first half of 2022, per customs data out on Monday, as Chinese authorities continued to work to reduce overseas sales of fuels and allocated lower export quotas to refiners. 

    Gasoline exports slumped by 42 percent annually in the first half of this year compared to the same period of 2021, according to Chinese customs data cited by Reuters. Diesel exports crumbled by an even larger percentage—they were down by 84 percent between January and July compared to the first half of 2021.   

    This month, China’s fuel exports are expected to rebound after the government has recently allocated a new batch of export quotas to refiners, according to industry consultancy JLC quoted by Bloomberg.

    The latest batch of export quotas has been issued, but combined with other quotas so far this year, overall export quotas from China are much lower than last year’s.

    At the beginning of this month, China issued the latest batch of fuel export quotas for refiners, and total quotas so far this year are 39 percent lower than the collective quotas this time last year—a sign that Chinese fuel exports are unlikely to ease the tight fuel market globally.

    The Chinese authorities have approved the latest batch for a total of 5 million tons, Reuters reported, citing sources. That would be enough for the refiners given quotas to make money with sales on the export market, but not enough to ease the global crunch in fuel supply.

    China started this year by considerably reducing the allowances for fuel exports in the first export quota batch for 2022, signaling its intention to limit fuel sales abroad and curb excessive refinery output.

    Exports were reportedly limited in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as Chinese authorities were said to have asked state refiners in the country to consider halting diesel and gasoline exports in April due to heightened concerns about oil supply.

    Chinese diesel and gasoline exports so far this year have been well below last year’s, while COVID-related lockdowns hurt demand in the spring, swelling domestic Chinese inventories.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/19/2022 – 17:25

  • Former NYC Mayor Bill De Blasio Quits NY Congressional Race
    Former NYC Mayor Bill De Blasio Quits NY Congressional Race

    Former NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio has tapped out of the New York 10th district congressional race, after he said in a Tuesday tweet that it’s clear “people are looking for another option.”

    De Blasio thanked his campaign staff from his current and previous runs, and gave no indication of what his next move might be – though he said it was time for him to bow out of electoral politics.

    The former Mayor has dropped steadily in polls since the beginning of the pandemic – turning down a bid for NY Governor after polling far behind Gov. Kathy Hochul in the Democratic primary.

    Democratic Political strategist and former Pete Buttigieg 2020 campaign advisor Lis Smith trashed former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio during a Monday interview with MSNBC host Nicolle Wallace. 

    During a segment of MSNBC’s “Deadline: White House,” Wallace read an excerpt from Smith’s new political memoir titled, “Any Given Tuesday: A Political Love Story,” in which she scathingly recounted the time she worked for de Blasio, up until her fired her. -Fox News

    Last October, the New York Times reported that a city investigation revealed de Blasio misused public resources for his own political and personal benefit – and had not reimbursed the city for security costs related to his presidential campaign.

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/19/2022 – 17:05

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 19th July 2022

  • Germany To Re-Impose Mask Mandate In September Despite COVID Wave Already "Losing Momentum"
    Germany To Re-Impose Mask Mandate In September Despite COVID Wave Already “Losing Momentum”

    Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

    Germany is set to re-impose its mask mandate in September despite the summer COVID wave already “losing momentum,” indicating such rules are being made permanent.

    Justice Minister Marco Buschmann announced that Germans would have to mask up this autumn when indoors and that the rules would be in place throughout the winter.

    Ludicrously, such measures are being finalized months in advance when nobody even knows what the COVID situation will be later in the year.

    Buschmann also acknowledged that the summer COVID wave in the country is already “losing momentum,” but Germans will be forced to wear face coverings anyway.

    The measures will be sent to parliament in September, where they are likely to be voted into law.

    “The effectiveness of masks for individuals indoors is undisputed,” said Buschmann.

    “That’s why a form of mask requirement indoors will certainly play a role in our concept.”

    On the contrary, mask rules are being re-imposed across the western world despite no evidence that they are effective in stopping COVID.

    The UK government’s own investigation found that the evidence for the efficacy of face masks stopping the spread of COVID-19 in schools is “not conclusive.”

    We previously reported on the comments of UK government SAGE adviser Dr Colin Axon, who dismissed masks as “comfort blankets” that do virtually nothing, noting that the COVID-19 virus particle is up to 5,000 times smaller than the holes in the mask.

    “The small sizes are not easily understood but an imperfect analogy would be to imagine marbles fired at builders’ scaffolding, some might hit a pole and rebound, but obviously most will fly through,” Axon said.

    A study in Denmark involving 6,000 participants also found that “there was no statistically significant difference between those who wore masks and those who did not when it came to being infected by Covid-19,” the Spectator reported.

    study conducted in Germany also found that the reading ability of children has plummeted compared to pre-COVID times thanks to lockdown policies that led to the closure of schools.

    Adults wearing masks has led to serious cognitive development disorders in children.

    Speech therapist Jaclyn Theek said that mask wearing during the pandemic has caused a 364% increase in patient referrals of babies and toddlers.

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/19/2022 – 02:00

  • Soros-Backed Los Angeles DA Stops Notifying Victims Of Attacker's Parole Hearings
    Soros-Backed Los Angeles DA Stops Notifying Victims Of Attacker’s Parole Hearings

    Authored by Jamie Joseph via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Los Angeles District Attorney George Gascón is dissolving an office unit responsible for notifying crime victims and their families when their assailant has parole hearings.

    Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascon speaks at a press conference in Los Angeles on Dec. 8, 2021. (Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images)

    Made up of victims’ advocates, the Parole Unit—also known as the Lifer Unit—will be disbanded by the end of the year.

    While a victim has a right to be notified, they also have a right NOT to be contacted,” Gascón’s office said in a statement. “Lawyers in the parole unit have been using Victim Service Representatives, paralegals, and Bureau of Investigation resources to contact victims and their next of kin who have not requested to be notified of parole hearings.”

    An email sent to prosecutors in the unit stated that Gascón’s office has determined that it is “‘not appropriate’ for the LADA to notify victims of crime and victim next of kin of those that were murdered that parole hearings are scheduled for the inmates that harmed them and their loved ones.”

    The office will continue sending out notifications for cases assigned through October 2022, according to the email.

    The DA’s office said the unit was already being downsized under former DA Jackie Lacey, and victims will still have access to free supportive services through the office’s victim services representatives.

    However, Diana Teran—recently promoted Director of the Parole Division and oversees all resentencing cases—issued an order that contradicted Gascón’s initial policy, stating “this Office will continue to meet its obligation to notify and advise victims under California law.”

    Immediately after he assumed office in December 2020, Gascón sparked controversy when he issued a directive (pdf) to remove prosecutors from attending parole hearings, saying that a prosecutor’s input and “the crime of conviction is of limited value in considering parole suitability years or decades later.” He also encouraged prosecutors to support granting parole after felons fulfilled their mandatory sentence minimum.

    Attorney Kathleen Cady—one of several former prosecutors who are providing pro bono assistance to crime victims in response to Gascón’s policies—said in an emailed statement that the district attorney’s latest move is “indefensible.”

    “This systematic and pervasive violation of victims’ rights appears to be motivated by one goal: to release as many murderers, child molesters and rapists as possible from prison,” Cady said.

    Keeping victims informed and protecting the people of California and victims’ rights just seems to get in the way.

    Los Angeles Deputy District Attorney Ryan Erlich wrote on Twitter this week that Gascón “has done a bunch of terrible things since Dec. 2020. But turning his back on the families of victims of violent crime is beyond callous. If he had EVER tried a homicide, he would know that we have a moral duty to, at least, support those folks at parole hearings.”

    Elected on a promise to implement progressive criminal justice reform, Gascón could be facing a recall election in November, as almost 150,000 more signatures than the 566,857 required have been submitted to the LA County Clerk’s office for verification last week. The county clerk has until Aug. 17 to count and verify all signatures.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/18/2022 – 23:55

  • Pentagon Nears Deal With Lockheed For 375 F-35 Stealth Fighter Jets
    Pentagon Nears Deal With Lockheed For 375 F-35 Stealth Fighter Jets

    The Pentagon is reportedly close to securing 375 F-35 stealth fighter jets from Lockheed Martin Corp., Reuters reported on Monday afternoon, citing three sources.

    The sources said the 375 fifth-generation warplanes would be delivered over three years. Reuters wasn’t clear which variant of the F-35 (the conventional takeoff and landing (CTOL) F-35A, the short takeoff and vertical-landing (STOVL) F-35B, and or the carrier-based (CV/CATOBAR) F-35C) was part of the deal. 

    Recently, Lockheed said that rising inflation would boost the cost of all three F35 variants. In 2019, the Pentagon inked a deal with the defense contractor F-35As for around $78 million, F-35Bs for $101 million, and F-35Cs for $94 million. 

    There’s no timeline on when negotiations between the government and Lockheed will formalize the contract and announce the massive deal worth approximately $30 billion.

    So much for “world peace” as the US continues to modernize its fleet of fighter jets and strategically place them in key US allies, such as Germany, Japan, and South Korea, creating a ‘friends circle’ of fifth-generation fighters around Russia and China. 

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/18/2022 – 23:35

  • Stefanik Criticizes Jan. 6 Committee For Keeping Pelosi 'Off-Limits' From Probe
    Stefanik Criticizes Jan. 6 Committee For Keeping Pelosi ‘Off-Limits’ From Probe

    Authored by Frank Fang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    House GOP Conference Chairwoman Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) has called out Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), chair of the Jan. 6 Committee, questioning why House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has remained “off-limits” from the committee’s scrutiny over the events that led up to violence on Jan. 6, 2021.

    You have only one office that’s off-limits to investigation and that office is Nancy Pelosi’s office,” Stefanik told Fox News’ “Life, Liberty and Levin” on July 16.

    “Bennie Thompson said at the start of this witch hunt that everything is fair game,” she added, “except for the speaker of the House’s office.”

    U.S. House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) attends a press conference at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on June 8, 2022. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

    In October 2021, Thompson told CNN that “nobody is off-limits” from the committee’s investigation, including former President Donald Trump.

    [W]e know that the speaker’s office was made aware of potential threats, potential violence that day. They failed to do their job to ensure the Capitol Police had the support they needed to secure the Capitol,” Stefanik said.

    “And they have not turned over the communication with the sergeant at arms office.”

    Chairman and Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) arrives for a hearing on “the January 6th Investigation” on Capitol Hill in Washington on July 12, 2022. (Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images)

    Pelosi is facing questions about claims that she rejected a preemptive National Guard presence ahead of the breach of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. According to former U.S. Capitol Police Chief Steven Sund, he requested that the National Guard be brought in to ensure the Jan. 6 rally went smoothly. However, Sund claims that Sergeant-at-Arms Paul Irving, overseen by Pelosi, rejected the request, citing concerns over the “optics” of deploying Guard personnel in the city.

    Sund’s requests were eventually denied or postponed six times, according to his interview with The Washington Post.

    The American people deserve to have that information,” Stefanik said.

    She added the Jan. 6 committee is “a waste of taxpayer dollars.”

    “It’s not dealing with the crises that are actually impacting and hurting the American people resulting from Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi’s failed policies,” she said.

    The Jan. 6 committee consists of seven Democrats and two Republicans, all of them having voted to impeach Trump. Last year, GOP House Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) withdrew all of his picks for the committee after Pelosi rejected two of his selections, Reps. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) and Jim Jordan (R-Ohio). Pelosi then picked Reps. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) and Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) to sit on the Democrat-dominated panel.

    In June, Trump told Punchbowl News that it’s “not even a question” that McCarthy should have put GOP lawmakers on the panel.

    “Well, I think in retrospect, I think it would have been very smart to put [Republicans on the committee] and again, I wasn’t involved in it from a standpoint so I never looked at it too closely. But I think it would have been good if we had representation,” Trump said.

    Former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a “Save America” in Anchorage, Alaska, on July 9, 2022. (Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images)

    Trump added that it “would’ve been great” if Banks and Jordan were on the panel.

    “But when Pelosi wrongfully didn’t allow them, we should’ve picked other people. We have a lot of good people in the Republican Party,” Trump said.

    Stefanik said at a press conference in June that the Jan. 6 committee “is not about seeking the truth.”

    It is a smear campaign against President Donald Trump, against Republican members of Congress, and against Trump voters across this country,” Stefanik said.

    Also in June, Banks took to Twitter to warn that the committee was “NEVER about addressing security failures at the Capitol or ensuring something like Jan 6 never happens again.”

    “Has ALWAYS been a witch hunt and a Trojan horse effort to advance radical left wing agenda like abolishing Electoral College,” he added. “Don’t be fooled!

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/18/2022 – 23:15

  • Jewelers Report $100 Million In Losses After 'Italian Job'-Style Armored Truck Robbery
    Jewelers Report $100 Million In Losses After ‘Italian Job’-Style Armored Truck Robbery

    California thieves have graduated from ‘smash and grabs‘ at luxury retail stores and looting rail cars stacked with consumer goods to now pulling off an ‘Italian Job’-style robbery.

    A Brink’s armored truck was loaded with millions of dollars of jewelry on July 10, following an exhibition hosted by the International Gem and Jewelry Show in San Mateo, south of the Bay Area, the group’s director Brandy Swanson told local CBS-TV affiliate KPIX.

    Swanson said the Brink’s truck was headed to another event on July 11 at the Pasadena Convention Center, northeast of downtown Los Angeles, when 25 and 30 bags of jewelry were stolen from the truck. She said, “18 victims reported more than $100 million in losses.” 

    Laura Eimiller, the spokeswoman for the FBI in Los Angeles, said Brink’s armored truck was robbed in the desert city of Lancaster in northern Los Angeles County while en route to its destination at the convention center. 

    Dana Callahan, a spokeswoman for Brink’s, disputed the $100 million value of stolen property and said it’s more like $10 million. 

    Swanson said the discrepancy between the dollar amount stolen is because some traveling vendors underinsure to save money: 

    “That’s where the discrepancy comes in. These are mom-and-pop operators,” she said. “They’re devastated. Some of these people have lost their entire livelihoods.”

    Vendors claim the figure is more like $150 million. One jeweler said their “19 karat yellow gold with over 100 carats of multicolored sapphire” piece was among the stolen jewels. 

    Some vendors don’t have a showroom and depend on trade shows to make a living. 

    “My life. That’s how I live. That’s how I feed my kids,” the vendor continued. 

     

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/18/2022 – 22:55

  • Worksheet At Boston High School Suggests Assassinations As Legitimate Form Of Resisting 'Oppression'
    Worksheet At Boston High School Suggests Assassinations As Legitimate Form Of Resisting ‘Oppression’

    Authored by J.M. Phelps via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    At Charlestown High School in the city of Boston, certain teachers instructing students learning English who recently arrived in the United States may be indoctrinating these children to incite violence as a form of resistance to their alleged oppressors, according to experts.

    Students walk to their classrooms at a public middle school in Los Angeles, California, on Sept. 10, 2021. (Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images)

    The “classroom files” of three of the school’s teachers in the Sheltered English Immersion program are currently available for download on the Boston Teachers Union (BTU) website. These teachers teach Humanities to ninth- and tenth-grade students who have recently arrived in the country from El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and China, the website states.

    One part of the curriculum profiled on the website involves “notes and assignments around oppression, resistance, and narrative structure.”

    “It includes detailed note-taking sheets and powerpoints on institutional, interpersonal, and internalized oppression,” the BTU website states. “Students are invited to critically examine when certain forms of resistance might be appropriate.”

    A worksheet titled “Forms of Resistance” is included as an example of what’s taught in the course.

    The first page of the worksheet identifies three types of oppression as “Instituional [sic],” “Interpresonal [sic],” and “Internalized,” and then lists examples of each. One example of oppression at the institutional level was identified as, “Trump builds a wall on the border so it is harder for Latinos to enter the US.” At the interpersonal level, an example was, “A husband tells his wife she must stay home to cook and clean.” An example of oppression at the internalized level included, “An Asian girl hates her eyes, she thinks she is ugly so she gets surgery to change them.”

    Students were next asked to “list different forms of resistance for each level of oppression.”

    The following pages of the worksheet with the heading “Forms of Resistance Notes” contained 11 rows identifying 11 types of resistance that could be employed to end certain forms of oppression. The column on the far left contains pictures identifying each type of resistance and students are made to name in the type of resistance in the next column. Next, students are meant to fill in the blanks in the column that provides the “explanation” for each form of resistance. In the last section, students are to choose which of the three levels of oppression—institutional, interpersonal, or internalized—that the type of resistance was “most effective at ending.”

    Alongside peaceful protest methods such as boycotts, sit-ins, and petitions, the worksheet also contains three images are appear to portray violent forms of revolt: riots, shown by masked protestors wearing all black throwing projectiles including what appears to be a flare; fights, depicted by a cartoon image of two people brawling; and political assassinations, shown by an image of President Richard Nixon as a target of crosshairs.

    ‘Indoctrination’

    Parental rights advocates expressed alarm at what was apparently being taught to English as a Second Language students at the Boston high school.

    Rebecca Friedrichs, the founder of advocacy group For Kids & Country and author of “Standing up to Goliath: Battling State and National Teachers’ Unions for the Heart and Soul of our Kids and Country” said that a teacher for 28 years and a parent of two children she was “disgusted” by the worksheet that she described as “damaging and dangerous.”

    “These English language learners [in these classrooms] are likely new immigrants to the country, coming to this country to experience freedom, [but in Boston] they’ve run smack dab into Marxist indoctrinators posing as educators,” she said.

    Schools are meant for educating children, not indoctrinating them in radical ideology,” she added.

    The worksheet is “full of lies,” Friedrichs said, adding that teachers are using these lies to indoctrinate children.

    Alex Newman, award-winning international journalist and executive director of the advocacy group Public School Exit, agreed, saying, “the material was clearly designed to indoctrinate children into seeing themselves as victims of oppression.”

    Newman was most alarmed by the worksheet’s examples of violent resistance that he said implied a need to “overthrow” anyone who is allegedly responsible for the oppression. “They seem to be promoting revolt and resistance to legitimate forms of authority,” he said. Newman is also a contributor to The Epoch Times.

    The goal of such teachings, Newman said, is to prime children to accept illegitimate forms of authority, and encourage them to engage in violence to achieve those ends.

    Legitimate authorities must be brought down if they want to impose new authorities,” Newman said. And this “indoctrination program,” he said, is “an extension of that same lawless agenda.”

    Justifying Violence

    The worksheet’s attempt to justify violence could be seen through the picture of three individuals dressed in black throwing various objects, including a flare. Both experts noted that the image alludes to groups like Antifa, a far-left anarchist movement that seeks the overthrow of capitalism.

    The explanation listed alongside the picture on the worksheet says, “Protesting or marching with [blank].” Friedrichs took issue with the characterization, saying “they’re clearly engaged in violence, throwing bottles and more.”

    In a second example depicting crosshairs on the chest of President Nixon, Friedrichs said that this type of image is “extremely dangerous in the mind of a child.”

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/18/2022 – 22:35

  • Scaramucci's SkyBridge Capital Suspends Redemptions In One Of Its Crypto Funds
    Scaramucci’s SkyBridge Capital Suspends Redemptions In One Of Its Crypto Funds

    Voyager, 3 Arrows Capital, Celsius… is Skybridge Next?

    Anthony Scaramucci’s Skybridge Capital suspended redemptions in one of its funds after sharp declines in stocks and cryptocurrencies, Bloomberg reported.

    The Legion Strategies fund suspended redemptions because private companies, which are harder to sell, now make up about 20% of the portfolio, one of the people said. The fund is one of Skybridge’s smaller offerings, which farms out most of its roughly $230 million of assets to hedge fund managers. According to Bloomberg FTX, the crypto exchange co-founded by billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried, is among the fund’s private investments.  

    The Legion Strategies fund gained exposure to digital assets through other funds managed by Skybridge, including vehicles focused on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Algorand, according to a regulatory filing. As of Feb. 28, almost a quarter of Legion’s net assets were invested in such fund.

    Scaramucci – who returned to money management after spending all of 11 days in the White House as the Trump administration’s communications director when he was angling for a nod from Trump to sell his firm to China’s now defunct HNA (the sale ultimately fell through) – made a big push into crypto, a move that helped Skybridge’s performance last year and has crushed it this year when an index of the 100 largest digital assets has tumbled 56% in 2022.  

    Skybridge runs a larger fund-of-funds, the Multi-Adviser Hedge Fund Portfolios, which managed about $2 billion as of March 31, according to a separate filing. That fund fell about 5.5% for the year through March 31.

    Redemptions for that fund are made through a tender offer by Skybridge. The firm told clients it will buy back 10% of the fund’s shares at the end of September, the next time investors are allowed to pull money, one of the people said.

    It’s not the first time the Mooch has faced a run on his fund: in April 2020, Reuters reported that investors in SkyBridge Capital asked for hundreds of millions of dollars back after the fund suffered a 23% loss in March when investments made by its debt-focused hedge fund managers soured. Scaramucci wrote in a letter to clients that he was “embarrassed” by the loss.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/18/2022 – 22:15

  • Shrinking Population Is Another Problem For China's Housing Market
    Shrinking Population Is Another Problem For China’s Housing Market

    By Ye Xie, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and reporter

    The wave of mortgage-payment boycotts has spurred China’s regulators into action. Beijing may be able to prevent the issue from morphing into a bigger crisis. In the bigger picture, however, the housing downturn will be a multi-decade process amid a shrinking population.

    After a growing number of homebuyers refused to pay mortgages on stalled home projects, regulators have moved to restore market confidence. Mitigating measures being considered include allowing homeowners to temporarily halt mortgage payments and urging local governments and banks to provide more funding to developers, Bloomberg reported.

    The authorities may quell this latest disruption in the beleaguered property market since the number of affected mortgages remains small, for now. But it’s clear that this housing downturn will remain a drag on the economy for years to come. The high-turnover, pre-sale model relied upon by developers has been severely impaired, while households are already deep in debt.

    Moreover, demographic headwinds have been gathering momentum since the pandemic. The United Nations’ new population forecast released earlier this month — the first in three years — suggests that China is poised to cede the status as the world’s most-populous nation to India next year. The UN projected that China’s population will peak this year, instead of in 2031 as previously estimated. The population is forecast to shrink by 90 million – more than the current population of Germany today — by 2050.

    Source: United Nations

    Even this forecast may be too optimistic, according to Julian Evans-Pritchard, a China economist at Capital Economics. The UN predicts China’s fertility rate bottomed out in 2021 and is set to rise slowly for the next 30 years. Evans-Pritchard said that’s “implausible” and fertility is more likely to decline, as it did in other Asian countries in recent years. He pointed out that the UN has failed to predict the drop in China’s fertility rate over the past few years.

    A shrinking population brings all sorts of problems, including slower economic growth and a larger pension shortage. It’s also a reminder that the property market has turned from a tailwind to headwind for the Chinese economy for years to come. The demographic changes mean that China’s housing demand is likely to fall from 8 million units per year in the 2010s to only 1.5 million by 2050,  Goldman Sachs estimated last year.

    It’s a long winter ahead for China’s property market.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/18/2022 – 21:55

  • Visualized: Lithium Ion Battery Vs. Hydrogen Fuel Cell
    Visualized: Lithium Ion Battery Vs. Hydrogen Fuel Cell

    Since the introduction of the Nissan Leaf (2010) and Tesla Model S (2012), battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) have become the primary focus of the automotive industry.

    This structural shift is moving at an incredible rate – in China, 3 million BEVs were sold in 2021, up from 1 million the previous year. Meanwhile, in the U.S., the number of models available for sale is expected to double by 2024.

    In order to meet global climate targets, however, the International Energy Agency claims that the auto industry will require 30 times more minerals per year. Many fear that this could put a strain on supply.

    “The data shows a looming mismatch between the world’s strengthened climate ambitions and the availability of critical minerals.”

    – FATIH BIROL, IEA

    Thankfully, BEVs are not the only solution for decarbonizing transportation. In this infographic, Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu and Miranda Smith explain how the fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) works.

    How Does Hydrogen Fuel Cell Work?

    FCEVs are a type of electric vehicle that produces no emissions (aside from the environmental cost of production). The main difference is that BEVs contain a large battery to store electricity, while FCEVs create their own electricity by using a hydrogen fuel cell.

    Let’s go over the functions of the major FCEV components.

    Battery

    First is the lithium-ion battery, which stores electricity to power the electric motor. In an FCEV, the battery is smaller because it’s not the primary power source. For general context, the Model S Plaid contains 7,920 lithium-ion cells, while the Toyota Mirai FCEV contains 330.

    Hydrogen Fuel Tank

    FCEVs have a fuel tank that stores hydrogen in its gas form. Liquid hydrogen can’t be used because it requires cryogenic temperatures (−150°C or −238°F). Hydrogen gas, along with oxygen, are the two inputs for the hydrogen fuel cell.

    Fuel Cell Stack and Motor

    The fuel cell uses hydrogen gas to generate electricity. To explain the process in layman’s terms, hydrogen gas passes through the cell and is split into protons (H+) and electrons (e-).

    Protons pass through the electrolyte, which is a liquid or gel material. Electrons are unable to pass through the electrolyte, so they take an external path instead. This creates an electrical current to power the motor.

    Exhaust

    At the end of the fuel cell’s process, the electrons and protons meet together and combine with oxygen. This causes a chemical reaction that produces water (H2O), which is then emitted out of the exhaust pipe.

    Which Technology is Winning?

    As you can see from the table below, most automakers have shifted their focus towards BEVs. Notably missing from the BEV group is Toyota, the world’s largest automaker.

    Hydrogen fuel cells have drawn criticism from notable figures in the industry, including Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess.

    Green hydrogen is needed for steel, chemical, aero,… and should not end up in cars. Far too expensive, inefficient, slow and difficult to rollout and transport.

    – HERBERT DIESS, CEO, VOLKSWAGEN GROUP

    Toyota and Hyundai are on the opposing side, as both companies continue to invest in fuel cell development. The difference between them, however, is that Hyundai (and sister brand Kia) has still released several BEVs.

    This is a surprising blunder for Toyota, which pioneered hybrid vehicles like the Prius. It’s reasonable to think that after this success, BEVs would be a natural next step. As Wired reports, Toyota placed all of its chips on hydrogen development, ignoring the fact that most of the industry was moving a different way. Realizing its mistake, and needing to buy time, the company has resorted to lobbying against the adoption of EVs.

    Confronted with a losing hand, Toyota is doing what most large corporations do when they find themselves playing the wrong game—it’s fighting to change the game.

    – WIRED

    Toyota is expected to release its first BEV, the bZ4X crossover, for the 2023 model year—over a decade since Tesla launched the Model S.

    Challenges to Fuel Cell Adoption

    Several challenges are standing in the way of widespread FCEV adoption.

    One is performance, though the difference is minor. In terms of maximum range, the best FCEV (Toyota Mirai) was EPA-rated for 402 miles, while the best BEV (Lucid Air) received 505 miles.

    Two greater issues are 1) hydrogen’s efficiency problem, and 2) a very limited number of refueling stations. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, there are just 48 hydrogen stations across the entire country. 47 are located in California, and 1 is located in Hawaii.

    On the contrary, BEVs have 49,210 charging stations nationwide, and can also be charged at home. This number is sure to grow, as the Biden administration has allocated $5 billion for states to expand their charging networks.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/18/2022 – 21:35

  • Democrats' Second Amendment 'Syndrome' Plan: Plotting The Next Big Fight Over Gun Rights
    Democrats’ Second Amendment ‘Syndrome’ Plan: Plotting The Next Big Fight Over Gun Rights

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    Below is my column in the Hill on the next round of litigation over the Second Amendment. New York and other states quickly moved to exploit the concurrence of Justice Brett Kavanaugh (who was joined by Chief Justice John Roberts) that state officials believe contains a loophole for greater gun limitations based not on the weapons but the places where they can be taken.

    Here is the column:

    In the movie “The Incredibles,” the villainous character “Syndrome” reveals a plan to make everyone a superhero. Syndrome’s motive is hardly altruistic: He hated superheroes and “with everyone super, no one will be.” Democratic leaders seem to be planning their own Syndrome plan for the Second Amendment — to make everywhere a special or “sensitive place” so that few places outside the home are protected by the constitutional right.

    The recent decision in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, Inc. v. Bruen was one of the most significant victories for the Second Amendment in the history of the Supreme Court. It was the latest defeat for the State of New York, which — having supplied a series of dubious state laws that have served to expand individual protections under the Constitution — has been the greatest gift to gun owners since the invention of the revolver.

    Right on cue, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) promised Syndrome-style legislation within an hour of the release of the Bruen decision. To make matters worse, Hochul went on television to say in a mocking tone that they would just come up with a long list of sensitive places.

    Hochul and others are relying on a concurrence in Bruen by Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who was joined by Chief Justice John Roberts. Kavanaugh reaffirmed the language in the 2008 decision in Heller v. District of Columbia that the Second Amendment was “neither a regulatory straightjacket nor a regulatory blank check.” States and the federal government could still adopt some restrictions on firearms. He specifically noted that the list of “sensitive places” referenced in the earlier case was not “exhaustive.”

    Kavanaugh’s limiting language was immediately taken as a license to bar guns by redefining places where they might be carried.

    New York’s Concealed Carry Improvement Act passed 43-20 and has elements that are ripe for constitutional challenge. However, it was the list that was so striking; indeed, it is hard to come up with a place that would not be declared special or sensitive. The list would seem to cover most areas outside of the home, including government buildings; any location providing health, behavioral health or chemical dependence care or services; any place of worship or religious observation; libraries; public playgrounds; public parks; zoos; the location of any state-funded or -licensed programs; educational institutions both in elementary and higher education; any vehicle used for public transportation; all public transit including airports and bus terminals; bars and restaurants; entertainment, gaming and sporting events and venues; polling places; any public sidewalk or public area restricted for a special event, and protests or rallies. That includes simply passing through Times Square.

    Montgomery County, Maryland, officials have proposed to bar the legal right to carry firearms “in or within 100 yards of a place of public assembly.”

    Other states like California are moving to bar permitted gun owners from carrying guns into any school grounds, college and university campuses, government and judicial buildings, medical facilities, public transit, public parks, playgrounds, public demonstrations and any place where alcohol is sold.

    These states believe they have an ally in Roberts. The chief justice has been criticized in the past for embracing rights while creating avenues for their circumvention. The most obvious example is his opinion in National Federation of Independent Business v. Sebelius, finding that the individual mandate of ObamaCare violated federalism but then saying that it did not matter if it is simply called a tax (which no party had done).

    These states are now hoping Roberts and Kavanaugh will do the same thing with gun rights in staunchly defending the individual right to carry a gun unless states simply define a wide array of places as “gun-free.” It is not the gun but the place that’s driving the exclusion.

    The problem is that Hochul and others may have been too open in gaming the opinion.

    Roberts is the ultimate incrementalist and institutionalist. As shown in his sole concurrence in the abortion decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health, he is not afraid to stand alone in seeking a moderate compromise. However, he is not someone who relishes being treated as a chump.

    Simply listing most of Manhattan as a “sensitive place” will again push the constitutional envelope. It will force the court to again limit the authority of the states to shoulder the burden of balancing the individual right to gun ownership against the need to protect these places from the exercise of that right.

    In answering that question, the court is likely to ask how statistically lawful gun permit owners have caused or materially increased the public safety risk in these areas. Studies have generally not shown a clear relationship between restrictive gun permit laws and a significant decrease in gun violence.

    There is a clear majority on the court to give states and cities the power to impose reasonable background checks and gun limits for sensitive places. However, these states may again overplay their hand with excessive listings like the one in New York. Indeed, in Gov. Hochul’s case, she is playing poker with the cards facing outward.

    When you say that you are going play these justices, you would be wise to heed Syndrome’s other advice: “You can’t count on anyone, especially your heroes.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/18/2022 – 21:15

  • Hulu Driving More Subscribers For Disney Than Disney+
    Hulu Driving More Subscribers For Disney Than Disney+

    Disney-owned Hulu has emerged as the entertainment giant’s fastest-growing streaming service – with new subscriptions outpacing those of Disney’s flagship platform, Disney+, in 18 of the last 24 months, according to the Wall Street Journal.

    What’s more, total new subscriptions to Hulu have eclipsed Disney+ in each of the last six quarters, according to subscriber analytics firm Atenna.

    Hulu’s subscriber gains come as Disney leadership is under pressure from investors to keep up the momentum in Disney+ subscriber growth. Disney Chief Executive Bob Chapek has set a target of signing up between 230 million and 260 million Disney+ subscribers and achieving profitability for the streaming business by September 2024, a goal described as unrealistic by some shareholders. -WSJ

    That said, streaming services have lost $887 million in the most recent quarter – and total more than $6 billion since the launch of Disney+, causing some analysts to describe streaming as a drag on Disney’s share price – which has fallen almost 40% YTD amid a larger pullback in the sector.

    Disney+ stands at 137.7 million subscribers as of the most recent quarter, while Hulu streaming-only service has 41.4 milion subscribers. Hulu Live, which goes for $70 per month, has 4.1 million subscribers.

    On Friday, Disney announced that they were raising the price of ESPN+ from $6.99 to $9.99, or from $69.99 annually to $99.99, which a Disney spokesperson says reflects the higher value and scope of the service. The company says it expects ESPN to make the Disney Bundle more attractive.

    Subscribers to the stand-alone Hulu service are less loyal than Disney+ subscribers, the data show, and more likely to cancel their subscriptions than those who subscribe to Disney’s streaming bundle, which includes both services and the sports-focused ESPN+. In June, the latest month for which data was available, 4.7% of Hulu subscribers canceled their subscriptions, compared with just 2.5% of bundle subscribers and 3.83% of Disney+ subscribers, Antenna found. -WSJ

    “They did a great job of teeing up those hard-core Disney fans” according to Antenna CEO Jonathan Carson. “But there’s a broader and longer-term upside for Hulu, because it has general market appeal, while Disney+ has a much more specialized fan base.”

    Disney acquired a controlling interest in Hulu in 2019 as part of its $72 billion purchase of 21st Century Fox’s entertainment assets.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/18/2022 – 20:55

  • Hong Kong Government To Track Citizens With Next-Level CCP-Type COVID Smartphone App
    Hong Kong Government To Track Citizens With Next-Level CCP-Type COVID Smartphone App

    Authord by Niee Law and Ying Cheung via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Since the new chief executive, John Lee Ka-chiu took office; he has been ready to do whatever it takes to please the CCP.

    To speed up the border reopening with mainland China, HKgov is to introduce the CCP COVID-19 Color Code system to track and restrict citizens’ movements. (Photo from Screenshot)

    The Hong Kong government (HKgov) has been proactively seeking ways to reopen cross-borders with China.

    Hkgov plans to enforce the CCP’s Health Code tracking into Hongkongers’ pandemic life. Commentators and netizens are nervous about losing personal freedom and privacy under the regime.

    HKgov has plans to add the COVID-19 Color Code system to the current LeaveHomeSafe App. Doing so will further restrict citizens’ movements. This app is a HKgov-made mobile vaccine passport for tracing and tracking COVID-19 patients and their public visits.

    Lo Chung-mau, Secretary for Health Authority (HA), said the Information, Technology and Industry Bureau (ITIB) and HA had concluded an evaluation of LeaveHomeSafe just half a month after the new government took office on July 1.

    Lo claimed that Hong Kong must mirror the CCP’s Dynamic-Zero Policy to ease pandemic cases, as it is a good policy. “Any policy which eliminates high-risk patients’ public visits is a good policy we should learn from.” His comments confirmed citizens’ concern about real-identity-based registration on the app.

    Limitation of Movement or Under Surveillance

    Hong Kong has been quietly running a similar system since 2021. Nevertheless, the Hong Kong code had only been applied to those who cross the borders of Guangdong Province, China, or Macau under quarantine exemptions. The color code allowed both cities to watch their Covid-19 cases.

    Hong Kong Code is essentially based on the PCR Test Pass, with PCR short for polymerase chain reaction-based nucleic acid test for COVID-19.

    Unlike the current Hong Kong Code, which only traces a small group of exempted visitors, HKgov is now discussing tracking everyone in Hong Kong.

    Three color indicators will be added to the existing vaccine pass by bracketing media reports, and standards of both PCR and Hong Kong vaccine passes.

    Code Red represents COVID-19 confirmed patients, close-contact persons, any coronavirus-positive patients within 14 days upon discharge, persons who are undergoing compulsory COVID-19 test, and anyone who had reported symptoms of the virus within the past 14 days.

    Code Yellow symbolizes anyone who has visited or is currently living in the high-risk areas, those who are waiting to be tested. Public places such as restaurants and gyms will not grant entry to anyone with Code Yellow.

    As for Code Green, anyone is tested negative—but the green code is only valid for one day.

    Lo claimed that the new rule “has nothing to do with wanting to reopen cross borders with China.”

    Hongkongers and critics are worried about Hong Kong becoming another CCP surveillance city.

    Public Opinions Are Loud and Clear

    As soon as the news broke, Hongkongers’ criticism and queries buzzed.

    Some said that the new code could ban them from dining in restaurants even if they had been vaccinated. Other citizens criticized HKgov for being ignorant. One of the netizens expressed, “Does HKgov realize how many people still don’t own or know how to work a smartphone? Asking them to learn how to use your app sends them to their graves.”

    The general public is also wondering: Why would Hong Kong copy a failed policy of Dynamic-Zero from the CCP?

    One of the netizens raised a worrying question. “Will the government turn our Health Code to Code Red one day as they did in Henan Province? Will our banks ban us from withdrawing our money?”

    A Blow to Personal Privacy

    Sam Ng Chi-sum, the former RTHK host of Headliners, commented during his online program that HKgov had never been able to eliminate privacy concerns of LeaveHomeSafe.

    Ng continued, “Many Hongkongers are still hesitant to install LeaveHomeSafe. If HKgov pushes for the real-identity registration policy, Hongkongers will have zero privacy.”

    Ng emphasized the Beijing regime has been using the Health Code to control and track the people of China around the clock. Ng said, “The CCP has been using Code Red against human rights and political activists. Who can explain that?”

    In November 2021, Chinese human rights lawyer Xie Yang was about to fly to Shanghai to visit the mother of the citizen journalist Zhang Zhan. When he arrived at the airport, Xie was unexpectedly banned from flying as his PCR Test Pass turned red. Once he got home, the code became green again.

    The public’s concerns are not groundless.

    Ng mentioned, “If the regime is turning Hong Kong into a surveillance city, LegCo will not stop that from happening.”

    Health Tools Become Surveillance Tools.

    The Beijing government launched the Health Code nationwide in early 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Only those with Code Green can get a pass. Compulsory PCR tests or self-quarantine are required for everyone else, and they must remain home until Code Green is signaled.

    Many other cases have proven that the authorities use the Health Code to restrict personal freedom.

    In Henan Province, certain banks in rural areas have frozen customers’ assets since April 2022. Villagers could not withdraw their savings.

    In June 2022, when hundreds of frustrated villagers planned to partake in a protest in Zhengzhou, everyone‘s original health code turned from green to red. No one could attend the rally as everyone had to stay home.

    Other bank account holders also said they encountered the same issue despite their negative PCR Test.

    Mainland media outlet Caixin reported that these customers’ Health Code going red is not pandemic-related.

    Those customers were the victims of frozen savings accounts by Henan banks.

    The Supervisory Committee of Zhengzhou Municipal Commission for Discipline Inspection later announced that the involved officials had been penalized, demoted, or dismissed from their positions in the CCP.

    In the Henan village bank incident, 1317 villages were red-coded and blocked from withdrawing their savings by the banks.

    On June 24, 2022, the Disease Control Bureau of the National Health Commission of China announced that any change in Health Code’s colors except for COVID-19 will be forbidden.

    Face Recognition Revealed by Hong Kong Media

    So when people under the Beijing regime had no control over their money or personal freedom, the public’s concerns about being watched were not groundless.

    In May 2022, FactWire, a Hong Kong investigative news agency, reported that the Android version of LeaveHomeSafe had a built-in face recognition module.

    The Office of the Government Chief Information Center admitted that the app development contractor had included a pre-existing facial recognition module during the development stage of LeaveHomeSafe. The office also claimed that the facial recognition function was “never activated.”

    Freedom Has limits

    Secretary for Health Authority Lo Chung-mau justified this in response to movement restrictions. “Freedom would be limited for the uninfected if sick people were allowed the freedom to roam.” Lo also claimed, “Freedom has limits. At risk, people should not be allowed to go out and endanger others.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/18/2022 – 20:35

  • Are US Presidents Getting Older?
    Are US Presidents Getting Older?

    Joe Biden is turning 80 this year. When the 46th U.S. president was inaugurated in January of 2021, he was the oldest president in U.S. history by some margin. His predecessor, Donald Trump, had also been the oldest president to take office at his inauguration six years ago (he was 70 at the time).

    As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz details below, if Biden was nominated for a second term, he would be 82 when assuming it in 2025. His old opponent Trump, who is expected to run again in 2024, would be 78.

    Infographic: Are U.S. Presidents Getting Older? | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Taking a look at all presidents’ ages at the time of their inauguration since 1789, no clear trend is visible. Before Trump and Biden, presidents’ ages were actually well below average. Barack Obama took office at 47 years and 169 days, according to Potus.com, making him the fifth youngest president at the time of inauguration.

    Bill Clinton, who was 46 when he took over, was the third youngest – only John F. Kennedy (43) and Teddy Roosevelt (42) were younger.

    Some of the oldest presidents hail from past centuries. William Henry Harrison was 68 at his inauguration in 1841 (he died a month later of typhoid and pneumonia), making him the fourth-oldest president ever. James Buchanan, who took office in 1857, was the fifth-oldest president at 65.

    The reason we bring this up is that age is the most cited reason why a majority of Democrats do not want President Biden to primary for 2024,  with a bad job performance following close behind.

    Infographic: Joe Biden Isn't Primary Voters' First Choice | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    According to The Advocate, it has been almost 170 years since an incumbent president has lost his party’s nomination, the last having been Democrat Franklin Pierce in 1856 over his support of slavery.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/18/2022 – 20:15

  • Congress Grants Pentagon $58 Billion More Than Requested: DOD Report
    Congress Grants Pentagon $58 Billion More Than Requested: DOD Report

    Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    US lawmakers granted the Department of Defense (DOD) more money than the Pentagon requested for in the fiscal 2022 defense budget, a recent Pentagon report shows.

    The U.S. Department of Defense seal is seen on the lecturn in the media briefing room at the Pentagon in Washington, DC, on Dec. 12, 2013. (Paul J. Richards/AFP/Getty Images)

    In total, Congress sanctioned $58.55 billion in additional funds, according to the report. This includes $25.70 billion for operations and maintenance, $17.67 billion for procurement, $9.89 billion for research, development, test, and evaluation, $4.32 billion for military construction, and $947 million for military personnel.

    The DOD initially had a base budget appropriation of $742.3 billion for fiscal 2022. As such, the extra $58.55 billion represents an almost 8 percent increase from the base budget. The Pentagon did not put in a request for any of the programs funded with the extra $58.55 billion.

    These programs are not even in the so-called unfunded priorities lists—made up of items not included in the budget but considered critical—that departments and officers send to Congress annually.

    For instance, roughly $4 billion was granted for half a dozen ships that were not on the unfunded priorities list. Similarly, the Navy received $900 million for a dozen Super Hornet jets, the Air National Guard got $1.8 billion to purchase 16 C-130J transport planes, and $460 million was granted for developing advanced jet engines. Over $2 billion in extra funds was appropriated for classified programs.

    The $58.55 billion calculation only takes into account individual additions totaling $20 million or more. Since there are usually many spending hikes in the single-digit millions, the total actual excess funding will likely be higher.

    Funding Debate

    In an email to Roll Call, Steve Ellis, president of Taxpayers for Common Sense, a government spending watchdog group, called for more efficient military budgets.

    “Certainly Congress has the power of the purse, but considering the Pentagon got more than $750 billion that year, lawmakers could work within that generous budget to reflect their priorities … Instead, they dumped more than $50 billion across accounts for what appear to be in some cases very parochial interests.”

    Since fiscal 2017, the Pentagon’s base budget has risen by 48 percent. The recently passed House version of the 2023 defense budget ups the funding received by the Pentagon, authorizing $839 billion in military spending—$37 billion more than was requested by the administration.

    While some question rising military expenditures, others argue that spending needs to be much higher. In May, Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) pointed out that there was a mismatch between the requested defense budget and the real-world situation.

    Speaking at a talk sponsored by the Hudson Institute, Rogers pointed out that the proposed 2023 budget only offers 1 percent of real growth after inflation. A realistic budget needs to include at least 5 percent over real inflation, he argued.

    “That’s the thing that we have to keep reminding them, stop trying to make the threats fit the budget number that the president gave you,” Rogers said. “You worry about the threats and tell us how much it’s going to cost and let us worry about it.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/18/2022 – 19:55

  • US Retailers Boost Security Personnel To Combat Soaring Thefts And Violent Crime
    US Retailers Boost Security Personnel To Combat Soaring Thefts And Violent Crime

    Eateries and supermarkets have beefed up security presence in response to mounting crime, with some operators spending money on private security, implementing new safety protocols, reducing hours of operation, and or even closing stores altogether, WSJ reports.

    Last week, 16 Starbucks locations were permanently shuttered in major cities over incidents related to drug use and ‘other disruptions’ in its cafes. Just weeks before, the coffee chain walked back its “all inclusive” bathroom policy. 

    “We are facing things that the stores weren’t built for,” Starbucks CEO Howard Schutz said. “We are listening to our people and closing stores,” he said, adding the government must be more proactive in crime fighting and treating mental illness as crime spirals out of control in liberal metro areas. 

    Casual dining chain Noodles & Co. encountered similar situations of rampant drug use in bathrooms. Meanwhile, supermarket Kroger Co. and drugstore Wallgreens have been pressured by increasing organized thefts. 

    A new study showed that 41% of Americans are more fearful to grab a bite to eat or shop in public areas because of rising violent crime. A national online survey by food-service research firm Lisa W. Miller & Associates LLC said that figure is up from 39% in March. The firm surveyed 1,005 adults earlier this month. 

    New Federal Bureau of Investigation statistics shows aggravated assaults that took place in supermarkets increased by a whopping 73% between 2018 to 2020 and by 60% in restaurants during that period. 

    In Southern California earlier this month, a handful of 7-Eleven stores were closed after a string of robberies at the convenience store left two people dead and three others injured. 

    Mod Super Fast Pizza Holdings LLC’s store managers have reported increasing violent crime, such as theft and robberies, over the past six months at some of its 520-stores across the US. 

    “There seems to be a layer of stress going into the restaurants, more than it used to,” Becky Mulligan, senior vice president of operations, said. 

    This month’s survey by grocery trade group FMI said 72% of its 18 food retailers representing over 12,000 stores said they were initiating plans to deal with violence prevention, while 88% of respondents said they saw a jump in robberies. 

    Walking into a Wegmans supermarket, with most stores based in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, customers are greeted with local police or private security (sometimes off-duty cops) patrolling the aisles for those attempting to steal food. 

    Thefts appear to be a significant issue plaguing US retailers. Relaxed shoplifting rules in California have led to a number of Walgreens stores closing across San Francisco. 

    And let’s not forget the countless reports of ‘smash and grabs’ across all sorts of retailers from California to New York. One of the most notable flash mob raids was at a Nordstrom department store in an upscale community on the outskirts of the San Francisco Bay Area, called Walnut Creek, where 50-80 people ransacked the store late last year. 

    Best Buy recently blamed sliding margins on an increased number of thefts nationwide

    “We are seeing more and more particularly organized retail crime,” Chief Executive Officer Corie Barry said on a conference call with analysts. “You can see that pressure in our financials, and more importantly, frankly, you can see that pressure with our associates. It’s traumatizing.”

    Increased shoplifting recently forced Target to reduce operating hours at several California locations

    Theft and violence across retailer stores come as the worst inflation has unequally crushed the working poor the hardest and wiped out their savings. In periods of economic turmoil, crime tends to increase.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/18/2022 – 19:35

  • June Southwest Border Apprehensions: Record High
    June Southwest Border Apprehensions: Record High

    By Steven Kopits of Princeton Policy Advisors

    US Customs and Border Protection reported 191,898 apprehensions at the US southwest border for June. This is comfortably a record for the month, almost twice the pre-Biden record of 115,000 set in June 2000 under the Clinton administration, and even 13,000 above last year’s 177,000, a record for June at the time. At the same time, apprehensions were right on our forecast, and indeed, apprehensions have been following our forecast closely for the first half of the year, suggesting that border conditions are largely unchanged since the Biden administration took office.

    Illegal immigration from traditional sources, notably Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, has been below that of last year since March. We presume that such immigrants are well informed about labor market conditions in the US, as they have a wide variety of sources within the US to direct them to job openings. Migrants may be perceiving softness in demand for their labor.

    At the same time, a key source of border crossing growth has come from the ‘Other’ category, that is, countries historically not a major source of illegal immigration. In March-June 2019, for example, an average of 13,000 migrants from ‘Other’ countries were arrested crossing the border monthly. In the same period this year, the average was 100,000 per month. One can imagine all sorts of legacy problems arising from the growth of ‘Other’ apprehensions. They will create a pipeline of illegal immigration that will long outlast the Biden administration.

    Our fiscal year 2022 forecast for southwest border apprehensions remains unchanged at 2.1 million, by far an annual record and nearly 500,000 higher than the previous record set by the Biden administration last year.

    Inadmissibles, those presenting themselves at official crossing points without appropriate documentation, have fallen sharply, with most of the decline coming from the ‘Other’ category. These were, in all likelihood, disproportionately Ukrainians fleeing the war, with their numbers declining as the situation has stabilized there.

    Overall, the situation at the border is largely unchanged. The Open Borders policy remains in place.

    I would note that, were we to use a market-based visa system, the US could have booked $30 bn in visa revenues this year from those otherwise entering illegally during the Biden administration. The border would effectively be closed to illegal immigration; all those working in the country would be legal and willing to return home; and these 53 migrants would still be alive.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/18/2022 – 19:15

  • California's Farmland Rapidly Turns To Dust Amid Water Crisis
    California’s Farmland Rapidly Turns To Dust Amid Water Crisis

    As much of the Western US suffers from a historic drought, all eyes have shifted to Californian farmers as hundreds of thousands of acres become fallow in a state responsible for a tremendous amount of US food production. 

    Unprecedented cuts to water supplies are jeopardizing the future of growing for many farmers. Drought conditions are worsening, making it harder for farmers to irrigate crops.

    As fields dry up and farm production drops, Josue Medellin-Azuara, an associate professor at the University of California Merced, told Bloomberg that 800,000 acres of farmland could be unworked this year, more than double the acreage last year. 

    Medellin-Azuara said the figure is preliminary as satellite imaging of California cropland continues to be examined. He anticipates official estimates by the end of this month or early August. 

    Just like that, multi-year, multi-decade investments in farm production have been wiped out over new water restrictions. Much of the fallow land is in California’s Central Valley, which produces more than half of the fruits, vegetables, and nuts grown in the US. 

    Farmers that remain in operation are seeing sharp reductions in surface water rights due to low snowmelt and dwindling storage from last year. 

    “What’s really concerning is for the first time we are fallowing at least 250,000 acres in the Sacramento Valley … those are the most senior water rights holders,” Karen Ross, secretary of the California Department of Food and Agriculture, said in an interview. 

    Medellin-Azuara said the new water restrictions are a complicated issue:

    Last year, some California farmers were stunned to find their so-called senior water rights restricted. Water laws in the state are governed by a complex system that dates back to the Gold Rush era. Senior rights holders — which include companies, growers and cities with claims that were acquired before 1914, and landowners whose property borders a river — are the last to see their supplies curtailed. -Bloomberg

    California’s most productive agricultural region is turning into dust, which should concern every American.

    As a reminder, California produces a quarter of the nation’s food — shrinking crop output is more alarming news that reveals food inflation is becoming structural and won’t abate anytime soon. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/18/2022 – 18:55

  • San Francisco's New DA Goes On Firing Spree After Voters Recall Soros-Backed Predecessor
    San Francisco’s New DA Goes On Firing Spree After Voters Recall Soros-Backed Predecessor

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

    The new district attorney in San Francisco fired at least 15 employees from the prosecutor’s office after her left-wing predecessor Chesa Boudin was recalled last month.

    “Today, I made difficult, but important changes to my management team and staff that will help advance my vision to restore a sense of safety in San Francisco by holding serious and repeat offenders accountable and implementing smart criminal justice reforms,” DA Brooke Jenkins said in a statement about the firings.

    Jenkins added in a statement that she “promised the public that I would restore accountability and consequences to the criminal justice system while advancing smart reforms responsibly”

    “My new management team … with decades of prosecutorial experience at the highest levels, will help our office deliver on that promise. I have full faith and confidence that these women will promote and protect public safety while delivering justice in all of its various forms,” she said.

    Among those who were fired include former San Francisco Managing Attorney Arcelia Hurtado, who headed the city’s Innocence Commission.

    Hurtado expressed her disappointment on Twitter, invoking her ethnicity and sexual orientation.

    “After over 2 years of tireless and devoted service to the City and Cty of SF, I was unceremoniously fired without cause via phone by the Mayor’s appointed DA,” she wrote.

    “I am the highest-ranking Latina/LGBTQ member of the management team at that office. I will continue the fight 4justice.”

    Other staffers to lose their jobs at the district attorney’s office included Rachel Marshall and Simin Shamji, reported KRON-4.

    Boudin was recalled on June 7 amid criticism of a citywide surge in crime, homelessness, and drug usage in public. Jenkins quit Boudin’s office in 2021 after joining in 2014.

    Controversial billionaire investor George Soros’ network of left-wing organizations provided Boudin with $600,000 for his 2019 election, according to the Washington Times. However, after he was recalled, a spokesperson for Soros said that he never contributed to Boudin.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/18/2022 – 18:35

  • Solar Panels Subsidized By California Are Winding Up In Landfills, Contaminating Groundwater With Toxic Metals
    Solar Panels Subsidized By California Are Winding Up In Landfills, Contaminating Groundwater With Toxic Metals

    Oh, the irony…California’s massive push for adaptation of solar over the last several decades in order to ascertain more “clean” energy is now becoming a problem for landfills.

    After 1.3 million solar installs later, the first push of panels are reaching the end of their “typical 25-to-30-year life cycle”, according to Yahoo

    And now for the coda to the “clean energy” story: many of the panels are “winding up in landfills, where in some cases, they could potentially contaminate groundwater with toxic heavy metals such as lead, selenium and cadmium” the report says. 

    One expert told yahoo that only 1 in 10 panels are actually recycled – the rest are contributing to “truckloads of waste”, some of which is contaminated, according to the report. 

    Sam Vanderhoof, a solar industry expert and chief executive of Recycle PV Solar told Yahoo: “The industry is supposed to be green. But in reality, it’s all about the money.”

    California has been pushing for solar since 2006, when the state approved $3.3 billion in subsidies. Now, about 15% of the state’s power comes from solar – but that belies the environmental disaster disposing of the panels has become. 

    While about 80% of the panels is recyclable, the process of disassembling the panels to get at the individual materials – including glass and silicon – is “extremely difficult”. 

    Serasu Duran, an assistant professor at the University of Calgary’s Haskayne School of Business in Canada commented: “This trash is probably going to arrive sooner than we expected and it is going to be a huge amount of waste. But while all the focus has been on building this renewable capacity, not much consideration has been put on the end of life of these technologies.”

    AJ Orben, vice president of We Recycle Solar added: “There’s no doubt that there will be an increase in the solar panels entering the waste stream in the next decade or so. That’s never been a question.”

    It’s burdensome to teach those who have the panels what is in them and the proper way to recycle them. Most consumers are not aware of the toxic nature of the panels. And like most everything else that needs to be subsidized in order to be adopted, recycling of the panels doesn’t make economic sense, the report adds:

    Recycling solar panels isn’t a simple process. Highly specialized equipment and workers are needed to separate the aluminum frame and junction box from the panel without shattering it into glass shards. Specialized furnaces are used to heat panels to recover silicon.

    In most states, panels are classified as hazardous materials, which require expensive restrictions on packaging, transport and storage. (The vast majority of residential solar arrays in the U.S. are crystalline silicon panels, which can contain lead, although it’s less prevalent in newer panels.

    Thin-film solar panels, which contain cadmium and selenium, are primarily used in utility-grade applications.) Orben said the economics of the process don’t make a compelling case for recycling.

    Amanda Bybee, co-founder of SolarRecycle.org, said: “There’s an informational gap, there’s a technological gap, and there’s a financial gap that we’re working on.”

    And while California regulates how the panels can be collected, it doesn’t change the end destination of many of the materials, Orben said: “What that [rule] does is really just changes how that material is handled, managed, stored, and transported. It doesn’t change how that material is actually processed.”

    Drew Johnstone, a sustainability analyst for Santa Monica, concluded: “It’s going to be a really large issue in a number of years, So it would behoove local governments, county, state, and it can go federal too, to have a plan in place for all these panels that will reach their end of life in 10 to 15 years.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/18/2022 – 18:15

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Today’s News 18th July 2022

  • Destroying The Planet To Save Ukraine?
    Destroying The Planet To Save Ukraine?

    Authored by Patricia Adams and Lawrence Solomon via The Epoch Times,

    Saving Ukraine from Russia has become more important to Western leaders than saving the planet from climate change, more important than keeping their populations from freezing in the dark, more important than the viability of Western industries, and more important even than avoiding the risk of an all-out nuclear war between the West and Russia.

    An early indication of the West’s loss of all perspective where Russia is concerned – call it Russia Derangement Syndrome – occurred in the United States after Donald Trump was elected president. Large swathes of the public, including virtually all Democrats and the legacy media, embraced a fantasy known as Russian Collusion, which asserted that Russia had colluded with the Trump campaign to install him as president.

    The fantasy persisted for three years until 2019 when Russia Collusion was confirmed to be a hoax perpetrated by Trump’s rival for the 2016 presidency, Hillary Clinton.

    Former Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson testifies before the House Intelligence Committee in an open hearing in the U.S. Capitol Visitors Center in Washington on June 21, 2017. Johnson answered questions about Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential elections and his department’s response to the threat. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

    Earlier this year, after Russia invaded Ukraine over a territorial dispute, Russia Derangement Syndrome went into overdrive. An infuriated West sanctioned Russian goods and services helter-skelter without thinking through the consequences, chiefly those involving energy. Russia represents continental Europe’s chief energy source and is the main reason Europeans can keep the lights on.

    Only after the Europeans decided to punish Russia, and only after Russia announced cuts to gas flows—temporarily, it said—on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline of 60 percent, did it dawn on Europeans that Russia could retaliate this coming winter through punitively-timed energy curtailments, putting Europe at Russia’s mercy.

    In Germany, for example, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s administration did its sums to discover that under all scenarios, Germany lacked the reserves needed to last the winter.

    “That was the sobering moment,” admitted Klaus Mueller, who heads Germany’s gas network regulator.

    “If we have a very, very cold winter, if we’re careless and far too generous with gas, then it won’t be pretty.”

    The European Union, now in a panic, is scrambling to acquire fossil fuels from any sources in a desperate attempt to stockpile energy prior to winter. Germany is returning to coal, as are Austria, Italy, and the Netherlands. The United Kingdom is also turning to coal and reversing its ban on fracking and on North Sea oil production. The EU is endorsing Norway’s latest exploitation of the North Sea and is open to new contracts for long-term commitments of natural gas.

    The United States is exporting record amounts of gas, so much so that Europe now receives more high-priced liquefied natural gas from U.S. tankers than inexpensive natural gas from Russian pipelines. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Europeans have advanced more than 20 liquefied natural gas import projects.

    In this fossil fuel free-for-all, the West has effectively abandoned its once ironclad commitment to combat climate change, which its leaders never tired of describing as an existential threat to the planet. Gone is Germany’s net-zero commitment to phase out coal plants by 2030, tenuous is the UK’s pledge to stop using coal in power stations by 2024, and shaky is the G-7’s determination to end “direct public support for the international unabated fossil fuel energy sector by the end of 2022.” Instead, the G-7, noting its determination to support Ukraine, backed increased deliveries of liquefied natural gas and urged oil-producing nations to increase their production.

    Wind turbines near a coal-fired power plant are pictured near Hamm, western Germany, on June 8, 2022. (INA FASSBENDER/AFP via Getty Images)

    To punish Russia, the Europeans are knowingly visiting far more severe punishments on themselves. Germany is preparing to put its population on an emergency footing by urging a rationing of energy. Its governments are responding by dimming street lights, switching off the illumination of historic buildings, and shutting off hot water in gyms, museums, and government buildings. Housing complexes are limiting the hours that hot showers can be taken and lowering the thermostats in centrally heated complexes. Industries are planning to scale back, move away from Europe, or shut down operations altogether.

    “A complete halt to Russian natural gas exports would cost Germany 12.7% of economic performance in the second half of 2022,” costing some $200 billion and affecting 5.6 million jobs, the Bavaria Industry Association warned last month.

    Denmark’s emergency plan involves shutting down gas heating during the summer, taking shorter showers, drying clothes outside, and suspending gas supplies to energy-intensive industries.

    A greater punishment still is being voiced in the form of nuclear war. The UKFrance, and the United States have all reminded Russia that they possess nuclear weapons in response to Russian reminders that it has the greatest nuclear arsenal of all.

    Remarkably, before the West so uniformly came to Ukraine’s defense, Ukraine was held in low regard by Europeans, viewed as a kleptocracy run by corrupt oligarchs with only the faintest hint of the rule of law. That image was transformed overnight once Russia invaded, as Ukraine became an instant darling of the West, so worthy as to warrant the destruction of the West’s economy, environment, and possibly the West itself.

    Such is the power of the Russia Derangement Syndrome.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/17/2022 – 23:30

  • Rescue-Fund Idea Floated To Stop Mortgage Crisis
    Rescue-Fund Idea Floated To Stop Mortgage Crisis

    By George Lei, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and analyst

    The Chinese stock market suffered its biggest weekly loss in three months, with the benchmark CSI 300 index sinking more than 4%. Real estate and banking risks soured sentiment and surging Covid cases made matters worse.

    Last week, housing ministry officials met with financial regulators and major Chinese banks to discuss lending matters. The government also censored crowd-sourced documents tallying the number of mortgage boycotts across the country. Markets, however, expect much more. Swift policy responses coordinated from Beijing are urgently needed to prevent bigger market rout.

    Knee-jerk reactions from local authorities may be to tighten oversight of escrow accounts for new home sales, and for banking regulators to raise mortgage standards. After all, a key reason for the mortgage boycotts is that developers diverted homeowner payments for other purposes. Now that many developers are facing financing difficulties, construction on those unfinished homes stalled.

    Such moves make perfect sense in isolation. But they might cause more troubles nationwide if implemented together. More money in escrow means less for developers, which could “lead to a sustained slowdown in housing market activity and more developer defaults,” according to a JPMorgan client note written by Tingting Ge, Haibin Zhu and Grace Ng on Friday. Relaxation of escrow management, on the other hand, would create the risk of embezzlement that could hurt more homebuyers.

    Nomura also expects “stricter control over presale escrow accounts” that would “hurt sales demand further,” credit desk analyst Iris Chen said in a note on Thursday. Mortgage issuance may also face a stricter approval process that could slow down cash collection and add pressure to developers’ liquidity.

    The mortgage boycott news, paradoxically, reduced concerns that accommodative macro policies might be pulled back, according to a client note from Goldman Sachs. Analysts Maggie Wei, Hui Shan and Lisheng Wang talked with clients including asset managers, private equity and hedge funds in Beijing and Shanghai. They found that domestic investors have high expectations for additional fiscal measures, such as more government bond issuance or further financial support by policy banks.

    Monetary easing alone cannot provide a quick fix to property sector problems, Xu Gao, chief economist at Bank of China International told local media. He floated the idea of a 1 trillion yuan ($148 billion) relief fund to buy non-controlling equity stakes in troubled developers. Once the builders are adequately capitalized with state-backed money, banks will be more willing to lend and the public will feel more assured of their new home purchases.

    There are plenty of precedents for such rescue facilities. In 2008-09, the US Treasury spent about $250 billion to stabilize banks and $46 billion to help struggling families avoid foreclosure under the Troubled Assets Relief Program. Premier Li Keqiang said in March that Beijing plans to set up a fund for ensuring financial stability without giving more details.

    Now, it looks like homeowners, banks and developers all need some lifeline to see through the mortgage crisis. Policy makers in the very top will need to act swiftly and decisively. The consequences of inaction, or a piecemeal, uncoordinated approach, can be very costly.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/17/2022 – 22:47

  • Dr. Birx Praises Herself While Revealing Ignorance, Treachery, & Deceit
    Dr. Birx Praises Herself While Revealing Ignorance, Treachery, & Deceit

    Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

    The December 2020 resignation of Dr. Deborah Birx, White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator under Trump, revealed predictable hypocrisy.

    Like so many other government officials around the world, she was caught violating her own stay-at-home order.

    Therefore she finally left her post following nine months of causing unfathomable amounts of damage to life, liberty, property, and the very idea of hope for the future. 

    Even if Anthony Fauci had been the front man for the media, it was Birx who was the main influence in the White House behind the nationwide lockdowns that did not stop or control the pathogen but have caused immense suffering and continue to roil and wreck the world. So it was significant that she would not and could not comply with her own dictates, even as her fellow citizens were being hunted down for the same infractions against “public health.” 

    In the days before Thanksgiving 2020, she had warned Americans to “assume you’re infected” and to restrict gatherings to “your immediate household.” Then she packed her bags and headed to Fenwick Island in Delaware where she met with four generations for a traditional Thanksgiving dinner, as if she were free to make normal choices and live a normal life while everyone else had to shelter in place. 

    The Associated Press was first out with the report on December 20, 2020. 

    Birx acknowledged in a statement that she went to her Delaware property. She declined to be interviewed.

    She insisted the purpose of the roughly 50-hour visit was to deal with the winterization of the property before a potential sale — something she says she previously hadn’t had time to do because of her busy schedule. 

    “I did not go to Delaware for the purpose of celebrating Thanksgiving,” Birx said in her statement, adding that her family shared a meal together while in Delaware. 

    Birx said that everyone on her Delaware trip belongs to her “immediate household,” even as she acknowledged they live in two different homes. She initially called the Potomac home a “3 generation household (formerly 4 generations).” White House officials later said it continues to be a four-generation household, a distinction that would include Birx as part of the home.

    So it was all a sleight-of-hand: she was staying home; it’s just that she has several homes! This is how the power elite comply, one supposes. 

    The BBC then quoted her defense, which echo the pain experienced by hundreds of millions: 

    “My daughter hasn’t left that house in 10 months, my parents have been isolated for 10 months. They’ve become deeply depressed as I’m sure many elderly have as they’ve not been able to see their sons, their granddaughters. My parents have not been able to see their surviving son for over a year. These are all very difficult things.”

    Indeed. However, she was the major voice for the better part of 2020 for requiring exactly that. No one should blame her for wanting to get together with family; that she worked so hard for so long to prevent others from doing so is what is at issue. 

    The press piled on and she announced that she would be leaving her post and not seeking a position at the Biden White House. Trump tweeted that she will be missed. It was the final discrediting – or should have been – of a person that many in the White House and many around the country had come to see as an obvious fanatic and fake, a person whose influence wrecked the liberties and health of an entire country. 

    It was a fitting end to a catastrophic career.

    So it would make sense that people might pick up her new book to find out what it was like to go through that kind of media storm, the real reasons for her visit, what it was like to know for sure that she must violate her own rules in order to bring comfort to her family, and the difficult decision she made to throw in the towel knowing that she has compromised the integrity of her entire program. 

    One slogs through her entire book only to find this incredible fact: she never mentions this. The incident is missing entirely from her book. 

    Instead at the moment in the narrative at which she would be expected to recount the affair she says almost in passing that “When former vice president Biden was declared the winner of the 2020 election, I’d set a goal for myself—to hand over responsibility for the pandemic response, with all its many elements, in the best possible place.”

    At that point, the book skips immediately to the new year. Done. It’s like Orwell, the story, even though it was reported for days in the world press and became a defining moment in her career, is just wiped out from the history book of her own authorship. 

    Somehow it makes sense that she would neglect to mention this. Reading her book is a very painful experience (all credit to Michael Senger’s review) simply because it seems to be weaving fables on page after page, strewn with bromides, completely lacking in self awareness, punctuated by revealing comments that make the opposite point of what she is seeking. Reading it is truly a surreal experience, astonishing especially because she is able to maintain her delusionary pose for 525 pages. 

    Recall that it was she who was tasked – by Anthony Fauci – with doing the really crucial thing of talking Donald Trump into green-lighting the lockdowns that began on March 12, 2020, and continued to their final hard-core deployment on March 16. This was the “15 Days to Flatten the Curve” that turned into two years in many parts of the country. 

    Her book admits that it was a two-level lie from the beginning. 

    “We had to make these palatable to the administration by avoiding the obvious appearance of a full Italian lockdown,” she writes. “At the same time, we needed the measures to be effective at slowing the spread, which meant matching as closely as possible what Italy had done—a tall order. We were playing a game of chess in which the success of each move was predicated on the one before it.”

    Further: 

    “At this point, I wasn’t about to use the words lockdown or shutdown. If I had uttered either of those in early March, after being at the White House only one week, the political, nonmedical members of the task force would have dismissed me as too alarmist, too doom-and-gloom, too reliant on feelings and not facts. They would have campaigned to lock me down and shut me up.”

    In other words, she wanted to go full CCP just like Italy but didn’t want to say that. Crucially, she knew for sure that two weeks was not the real plan. “I left the rest unstated: that this was just a starting point.”

    “No sooner had we convinced the Trump administration to implement our version of a two-week shutdown than I was trying to figure out how to extend it,” she admits. 

    “Fifteen Days to Slow the Spread was a start, but I knew it would be just that. I didn’t have the numbers in front of me yet to make the case for extending it longer, but I had two weeks to get them. However hard it had been to get the fifteen-day shutdown approved, getting another one would be more difficult by many orders of magnitude. In the meantime, I waited for the blowback, for someone from the economic team to call me to the principal’s office or confront me at a task force meeting. None of this happened.”

    It was a solution in search of evidence she did not have. She told Trump that the evidence was there anyway. She actually tricked him into believing that locking down a whole population of people was somehow magically going to make a virus to which everyone would inevitably be exposed somehow vanish as a threat. 

    Meanwhile, the economy was wrecked domestically and then all over the world, as most governments in the world followed what the US did. 

    Where did she come up with the idea of lockdowns? By her own report, her only real experience with infectious disease came from her work on AIDS, a very different disease from a respiratory virus that everyone would eventually get but which would only be fatal or even severe for a small cohort, a fact that was known since late January. Still, her experience counted for more than science. 

    In any health crisis, it is crucial to work at the personal behavior level,” she says with the presumption that avoidance at all costs was the only goal. “With HIV/AIDS, this meant convincing asymptomatic people to get tested, to seek treatment if they were HIV-positive, and to take preventative measures, including wearing condoms; or to employ other pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) if they were negative.”

    She immediately hops to the analogy with Covid. “I knew the government agencies would need to do the same thing to have a similar effect on the spread of this novel coronavirus. The most obvious parallel with the HIV/AIDS example was the message of wearing masks.” 

    Masks = condoms. Remarkable. This “obvious parallel” remark sums the whole depth of her thinking. Behavior is all that matters. Just stay apart. Cover your mouth. Don’t gather. Don’t travel. Close the schools. Close everything. Whatever happens, don’t get it. Nothing else matters. Keep your immune system as unexposed as possible. 

    I wish I could say her thought is more complex than that but it is not. This was the basis for lockdowns. For how long? In her mind, it seems like it would be forever. Nowhere in the book does she reveal an exit strategy. Not even vaccines qualify. 

    From the very beginning, she revealed her epidemiological views. On March 16, 2020 at her press conference with Trump, she summarized her position: “We really want people to be separated at this time.” People? All people? Everywhere? Not one reporter raised a question about this obviously ridiculous and outrageous statement that would essentially destroy life on earth. 

    But she was serious – seriously deluded not only about how society functions but also about infectious disease of this sort. Only one thing mattered as a metric to her: reducing infections through any means possible, as if she on her own could cobble together a new kind of society in which exposure to airborne pathogens was made illegal. 

    Here is an example. There was a controversy about how many people should be allowed to gather in one space, as in home, church, store, stadium, or community center. She addresses how she came up with the rules: 

    The real problem with this fifty-versus-ten distinction, for me, was that it revealed that the CDC simply didn’t believe to the degree that I did that SARS-CoV-2 was being spread through the air silently and undetected from symptomless individuals. The numbers really did matter. As the years since have confirmed, in times of active viral community spread, as many as fifty people gathered together indoors (unmasked at this point, of course) was way too high a number. It increased the chances of someone among that number being infected exponentially. I had settled on ten knowing that even that was too many, but I figured that ten would at least be palatable for most Americans—high enough to allow for most gatherings of immediate family but not enough for large dinner parties and, critically, large weddings, birthday parties, and other mass social events.

    She puts a fine point on it: “if I pushed for zero (which was actually what I wanted and what was required), this would have been interpreted as a ‘lockdown’—the perception we were all working so hard to avoid.”

    What does it mean for zero people to gather? A suicide cult?

    In any case, just like that, from her own thinking and straight to enforcement, birthday parties, sports, weddings, and funerals came to be forbidden. 

    Here we gain insight into the sheer insanity of her vision. It is nothing short of a marvel that she somehow managed to gain the amount of influence she did. 

    Notice her above mention of her dogma that asymptomatic spread was the whole key to understanding pandemic. In other words, on her own and without any scientific support, she presumed that Covid was both extremely fatal and had a long latency period. To her way of thinking, this is why the usual tradeoff between severity and prevalence did not matter. 

    She was somehow certain that the longest estimates of latency were correct: 14 days. This is the reason for the “wait two weeks” obsession. She held onto this dogma throughout, almost like the fictional movie “Contagion” had been her only guide to understanding. 

    Later in the book, she writes that symptoms mean next to nothing because people can always carry around the virus in their nose without being sick. After all, this is what PCR tests have shown. Instead of seeing that as a failure of PCR, she saw this as a confirmation that everyone is a carrier no matter what and therefore everyone has to lock down because otherwise we’ll deal with a black plague.

    Somehow, despite her astonishing lack of scientific curiosity and experience in this area, she gained all influence over the initial Trump administration response. Briefly, she was godlike. 

    But Trump was not and is not a fool. He must have had some sleepless nights wondering how and why he had approved the destruction of that which he had seen as his greatest achievement. The virus was long here (probably from October 2019), it presented a specific danger to a narrow cohort, but otherwise behaved like a textbook flu. Maybe, he must have wondered, his initial instincts from January and February 2020 were correct all along. 

    Still, he very reluctantly approved a 30-day extension of lockdowns, entirely on Birx’s urging and with a few other fools standing around. Having given in a second time – still, no one thought to drop an email or make a phone call for a second opinion! – this seemed to be the turning point. Birx reports that by April 1, 2020, Trump had lost confidence in her. He might have intuited that he had been tricked. He stopped speaking to her. 

    It would still take another month before he would fully rethink everything that he had approved at her behest. 

    It made no difference. The bulk of her book is a brag fest about how she kept subverting the White House’s push to open up the economy – that is, allow people to exercise their rights and freedoms. Once Trump turned against her, and eventually found other people to provide good advice like the tremendously brave Scott Atlas – five months later he arrived in an attempt to save the country from disaster – Birx turned to rallying around her inner circle (Anthony Fauci, Robert Redfield, Matthew Pottinger, and a few others) plus assembling a realm of protection outside of her that included CNN reporter Sanjay Gupta and, very likely, the virus team at the New York Times (which gives her book a glowing review).

    Recall that for the remainder of the year, the White House was urging normalcy while many states kept locking down. It was an incredible confusion. The CDC was all over the map. I gained the distinct impression of two separate regimes in charge: Trump’s vs. the administrative state he could not control. Trump would say one thing on the campaign trail but the regulations and disease panic kept pouring out of his own agencies. 

    Birx admits that she was a major part of the reason, due to her sneaky alternation of weekly reports to the states. 

    After the heavily edited documents were returned to me, I’d reinsert what they had objected to, but place it in those different locations. I’d also reorder and restructure the bullet points so the most salient—the points the administration objected to most—no longer fell at the start of the bullet points. I shared these strategies with the three members of the data team also writing these reports. Our Saturday and Sunday report-writing routine soon became: write, submit, revise, hide, resubmit. 

    Fortunately, this strategic sleight-of-hand worked. That they never seemed to catch this subterfuge left me to conclude that, either they read the finished reports too quickly or they neglected to do the word search that would have revealed the language to which they objected. In slipping these changes past the gatekeepers and continuing to inform the governors of the need for the big-three mitigations—masks, sentinel testing, and limits on indoor social gatherings—I felt confident I was giving the states permission to escalate public health mitigation with the fall and winter coming.

    As another example, once Scott Atlas came to the rescue in August to introduce some good sense into this wacky world, he worked with others to dial back the CDC’s fanatical attachment to universal and constant testing. Atlas knew that “track, trace, and isolate” was both a fantasy and a massive invasion of people’s liberties that would yield no positive public-health outcome. He put together a new recommendation that was only for those who were sick to test – just as one might expect in normal life. 

    After a week-long media frenzy, the regulations flipped in the other direction. 

    Birx reveals that it was her doing:

    This wasn’t the only bit of subterfuge I had to engage in. Immediately after the Atlas-influenced revised CDC testing guidance went up in late August, I contacted Bob Redfield…. Less than a week later, Bob [Redfield] and I had finished our rewrite of the guidance and surreptitiously posted it. We had restored the emphasis on testing to detect areas where silent spread was occurring. It was a risky move, and we hoped everyone in the White House would be too busy campaigning to realize what Bob and I had done. We weren’t being transparent with the powers that be in the White House…

    One might ask how the heck she got away with this. She explains:

    [T]he guidance gambit was only the tip of the iceberg of my transgressions in my effort to subvert Scott Atlas’s dangerous positions. Ever since Vice President Pence told me to do what I needed to do, I’d engaged in very blunt conversations with the governors. I spoke the truth that some White House senior advisors weren’t willing to acknowledge. Censoring my reports and putting up guidance that negated the known solutions was only going to perpetuate Covid-19’s vicious circle. What I couldn’t sneak past the gatekeepers in my reports, I said in person.

    Most of the book consists of her explaining how she headed a kind of shadow White House dedicated to keeping the country in some form of lockdown for as long as possible. In her telling, she was the center of everything, the only person truly correct about all things, given cover by the VP and assisted by a handful of co-conspirators.. 

    Largely missing from the narrative is any discussion of the science gathering outside the bubble she so carefully cultivated. Whereas anyone could have noted the studies pouring out from February onward that threw cold water on her entire paradigm – not to mention 15 years, or make that 50 years, or perhaps 100 years of warnings against such a reaction – from scientists all over the world with vastly more experience and knowledge than she. She cared nothing about it, and evidently still does not. 

    It’s very clear that Birx had almost no contact with any serious scientist who disputed the draconian response, not even John Iaonnidis who explained as early as March 17, 2020, that this approach was madness. But she didn’t care: she was convinced that she was in the right, or, at least, was acting on behalf of people and interests who would keep her safe from persecution or prosecution. 

    For those interested, Chapter 8 provides a weird look into her first real scientific challenge: the seroprevalence study by Jayanta Bhattacharya published April 22, 2020. It demonstrated that the infection fatality rate – because infections and recovery was far more prevalent than Birx and Fauci were saying – was more in line with what one might expect from a severe flu but with a much more focused demographic impact. Bhattacharya’s paper revealed that the pathogen eluded all controls and would likely become endemic as every respiratory virus before. She took one look and concluded that the study had unnamed “fundamental flaws in logic and methodology” and “damaged the cause of public health at this crucial moment in the pandemic.” 

    And that’s it: that’s Birx grappling with science. Meanwhile, the article was published in the International Journal of Epidemiology and has over 700 citations. She saw all differences of opinion as an opportunity to go on the attack in order to intensify her cherished commitment to the lockdown paradigm. 

    Even now, with scientists the world over in outrage, with citizens furious at their governments, with governments falling, with regimes toppling and anger reaching a fevered pitch, while studies pour out by the day showing that lockdowns made no difference and that open societies at least protected their educational systems and economies, she is unmoved. It’s not even clear she is aware.

    Birx dismisses all contrary cases such as Sweden: Americans could not take that route because we are too unhealthy. South Dakota: rural and backwater (Birx is still mad that the brave Governor Kristi Noem refused to meet with her). Florida: oddly and without evidence she dismisses that case as a killing field, even though its results were better than California while the population influx to the state sets new records. 

    Nor is she shaken by the reality that there is not one single country or territory anywhere on the planet earth that benefitted from her approach, not even her beloved China which still pursues a zero-Covid approach. As for New Zealand and Australia: she (probably wisely) doesn’t mention them at all, even though they followed the Birx approach exactly.

    The story of the lockdowns is a tale of Biblical proportions, at once evil and desperately sad and tragic, a story of power, scientific failure, intellectual insularity and insanity, outrageous arrogance, feudalistic impulses, mass delusion, plus political treachery and conspiracy. It is real-life horror for the ages, a tale of how the land of the free became a despotic hellscape so quickly and unexpectedly. Birx was at the center of it, confirming all of your worst fears right here in a book anyone can buy. She is so proud of her role that she dares to take all credit, fully convinced that the Trump-hating media will love and protect her perfidies from exposure and condemnation.

    There is no getting around Trump’s own culpability here. He never should have let her have her way. Never. It was a case of fallibility matched by ego (he has still not admitted error), but it is a case of enormous betrayal that played off presidential character flaws (like many in his income class, Trump had always been a germaphobe) that ended up wrecking hope and prosperity for billions of people for many years to come. 

    I’ve tried for two years to put myself in that scene at the White House that day. It’s a hothouse with only trusted souls in small rooms, and the people there in a crisis have the sense that they are running the world. Trump might have drawn on his experience running a casino in Atlantic City. The weather forecasters come to say a hurricane is on the way, so he needs to shut it down. He doesn’t want to but agrees in order to do the right thing. 

    Was this his thinking? Perhaps. Perhaps too someone told him that China’s President Xi Jinping managed to crush the virus with lockdowns so he can too, just as the WHO said in its February 26 report. It’s also difficult in that environment to avoid the rush of omnipotence, temporarily oblivious to the reality that your decision would affect life from Maine to Florida to California. It was a catastrophic and lawless decision based on pretense and folly. 

    What followed seems inevitable in retrospect. The economic crisis, inflation, the broken lives, the desperation, the lost rights and lost hopes, and now the growing hunger and demoralization and educational losses and cultural destruction, all of it came in the wake of these fateful days. Every day in this country, even two and a half years later, judges are struggling to regain control and revitalize the Constitution after this disaster. 

    The plotters usually admit it in the end, taking credit, like criminals who cannot resist returning to the scene of the crime. This is what Dr. Birx has done in her book. But there are clearly limits to her transparency. She never explains the real reason for her resignation – even though it is known the world over – pretending like the entire Thanksgiving fiasco never happened and thus attempting to write it out of the history book that she wrote. 

    There is so much more to say and I hope this is one review of many because the book is absolutely packed with shocking passages. And yet her 525-page book, now selling at a 50% discount, does not contain a single citation to a single scientific study, paper, monograph, article, or book. It has zero footnotes. It offers no go-to authorities and displays not even a hint of humility that would normally be part of any actual scientific account. 

    And it nowhere offers an honest reckoning for what her influence over the White House and the states foisted on this country and on the world. As the country masks up yet again for a new variant, and is gradually being groomed for another round of disease panic, she can collect whatever royalties come from sales of her book while working at her new gig, a consultant to a company that makes air purifiers (ActivePure). In this latter role, she makes a greater contribution to public health than anything she did while she held the reins of power. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/17/2022 – 22:30

  • Where The Contraceptive Pill Is Available Over-The-Counter
    Where The Contraceptive Pill Is Available Over-The-Counter

    The Food and Drug Administration has for the first time received an application by a pharmaceutical firm that looks to start selling a contraceptive pill as an over-the-counter medication

    According to the BBC, the move is unrelated to the recent Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe v. Wade, the previously long-standing precedent that guaranteed the right to abortion in the U.S.

    However, as Statista’s Katharina Buchholz notes, the development is nevertheless meaningful in the context of the post-Roe world where the Democrats and women’s organizations are scrambling to expand other services to those who have lost access to abortion. According to the OCs OTC Working Group, over-the-counter contraceptives can be a puzzle piece in this endeavor, especially since a codification of abortion rights on the federal level is looking evermore futile. The issue has already gained support from Democrats on Capitol Hill, but it is expected that opposition could form at least against removing the prescription requirement for minors.

    Looking at a world map of sales restrictions for contraceptive pills, developed countries typically require a prescription, while the medication is – either informally or formally – available over-the-counter almost everywhere else.

    Infographic: Where the Contraceptive Pill Is Available Over-the-Counter | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    According to the working group, offering the pill over-the-counter can significantly reduce unwanted gaps in contraceptive use, which can occur in areas where doctors’ appointments are hard to come by, clinics are far away or people are short on funds to pay for medical visits or extra travel. Some reasons for contraceptive gaps are more minute, according to the source, and can occur when women run out of pills at an inconvenient time or contraceptives are forgotten at home ahead of a trip.

    While some medical checks can be helpful before going on the pill, the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists as well as the American Medical Association and the American Academy of Family Physicians have spoken out in favor of the over-the-counter pill, saving that the benefits outweighed the risks especially for modern, well-researched contraceptive pills. Research has shown that checklist can be helpful for women to self-screen for potentially adverse health conditions, like high blood pressure, and find the right pill. According to a study on U.S. women who obtained over-the-counter pills in Mexico, a large majority of them continued to attend gynecological screenings. Of course, women can also still opt to discuss the right contraceptive method with their doctors before starting a regimen, with the added benefit that refills become much easier.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/17/2022 – 22:00

  • Bill Moves Forward That Will Legalize Psychedelic Drugs In California
    Bill Moves Forward That Will Legalize Psychedelic Drugs In California

    Authored by Matt Agorist via TheFreeThoughtProject.com,

    Despite the overwhelming evidence showing that kidnapping and caging people for possessing illegal substances does nothing to prevent use and only leads to more crime and suffering, government is still hell bent on enforcing the war on drugs. Like a crack addict who needs to find his next fix, the state is unable to resist the temptation to kick in doors, shake down brown people, and ruin lives to enforce the drug war.

    Instead of realizing the horrific nature of the enforcement of prohibition, many cities across the country double down on the drug war instead of admitting failure. As we can see from watching it unfold, this only leads to more suffering and more crime. Luckily, there are cities, and now entire states in other parts of the country that are taking steps to stop this violent war and the implications for such measures are only beneficial to all human kind.

    Eight years ago, Colorado citizens—tired of the war on drugs and wise to the near-limitless benefits of cannabis—made US history by voting to legalize recreational marijuana. Then, in 2019, this state once again placed themselves on the right side of history as they voted to decriminalize magic mushrooms. But this was just the beginning and their momentum is spreading—faster and stronger, toward decriminalizing all plant-based psychedelics. Then, this year, the state of Oregon decriminalized all drugs.

    Now, another state is following suit, but not just with psilocybin— a bill in California is moving forward with a legalization measure for other psychedelics like mescaline cacti, ayahuasca and ibogaine.

    The California Assembly committee is holding a hearing next month on the bill to legalize the possession, personal use, and facilitated and supported use of the following substances by adults 21 and over.

    • psilocybin

    • psilocyn

    • MDMA

    • LSD

    • DMT

    • mescaline (excluding peyote)

    • ibogaine

    Senate Bill 519 was proposed last year but was put on hold in August to adjust the wording in order to ensure its passage. As the Tenth Amendment Center points out:

    Under the Controlled Substances Act (CSA) passed in 1970, the federal government maintains the complete prohibition of many of the drugs on SB519’s decriminalization list and heavily regulates others. Of course, the federal government lacks any constitutional authority to ban or regulate such substances within the borders of a state, despite the opinion of the politically connected lawyers on the Supreme Court. If you doubt this, ask yourself why it took a constitutional amendment to institute federal alcohol prohibition.

    In effect, the passage of SB519 would end criminal enforcement of laws prohibiting the possession of these drugs in California. As we’ve seen with marijuana and hemp, when states and localities stop enforcing laws banning a substance, the federal government finds it virtually impossible to maintain prohibition. For instance, FBI statistics show that law enforcement makes approximately 99 of 100 marijuana arrests under state, not federal law. By curtailing or ending state prohibition, states sweep part of the basis for 99 percent of marijuana arrests.

    Furthermore, figures indicate it would take 40 percent of the DEA’s yearly annual budget just to investigate and raid all of the dispensaries in Los Angeles – a single city in a single state. That doesn’t include the cost of prosecution either. The lesson? The feds lack the resources to enforce marijuana prohibition without state and local assistance, and the same will likely hold true with other drugs.

    “With mental health issues on the rise, it is time that California take an incremental and measured step to dismantle failed war on drugs policies by ending the criminalization of people that possess and use substances with immense healing potential,” the bill’s sponsor Sen. Scott Wiener said in a statement of the bill’s purpose.

    It’s the plants that are going to bring us back to sanity. We’ve got to listen to their message and we’ve got to live reciprocally with nature and restore the natural order,” Susana Eager Valadez, director of the Huichol Center for Cultural Survival and Traditional Arts said after Oakland passed a similar decriminalization bill in 2019.

    The Assembly Appropriations Committee will hear the case for SB519 on Aug. 3. It must pass the committee by a majority vote before moving to the full Assembly for further consideration. Hopefully it does and California shifts from kidnapping and caging people for these substances, to focusing on using them for therapy.

    While California is certainly no bastion for freedom — especially with their draconian COVID-19 response — bills like this are a win for everyone as it requires far less money to help people than it does to incarcerate them.

    Now, cops can try to focus on real crimes instead of kidnapping and caging people who are trying to heal themselves with a plant.

    Supporters hope the decision will begin a nationwide discussion about decriminalizing plant-based drugs.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/17/2022 – 21:30

  • In 2023, Global Emoji Count Could Grow To 3,491
    In 2023, Global Emoji Count Could Grow To 3,491

    Just in time for today’s World Emoji Day, new pictograms coming to phones in 2023 have been announced. As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz details below, next year will likely see the release of 31 new emojis including the pink heart, the hair pick and the Khanda, the symbol of Sikh faith. The update would grow the number of emojis to nearly 3,500 next year. The Unicode consortium has recommended the emojis for release, but a final decision is still outstanding.

    Infographic: In 2023, Global Emoji Count Could Grow to 3,491 | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    While 2021 saw the release of 217 new emojis, that number was lowered to just more than 100 in 2022 and now finally to the double digits for next year. While emojis that allow users to pick different skin colors or genders drive up the size of releases as they are counted individually, the number of non-customizable emojis has also decreased with each release. 2023 will also see the addition of the moose head, the donkey, the goose, the handheld fan, the jelly fish and the maracas, among others, with the high-five hands – both left and right-facing – being the only customizable emoji in the new batch. The pink heart is reportedly the most anticipated of the release as social media users have griped for some time about the availability of the simple heart icon in white, orange and even brown, but not pink.

    What emojis appear on people’s phones and on their social media platforms is not arbitrary but has been coordinated by the Unicode Consortium since 1995, when the first 76 pictograms were adapted by the U.S. nonprofit. The Consortium has been overseeing the character inventory of electronic text processing since 1991 and sets a standard for symbols, characters in different scripts and – last but not least – emojis, which are encoded uniformly across different platforms even though illustration styles may vary between providers.

    Even though the first Unicode listings predate them, a 1999 set of 176 simple pictograms invented by interface designer Shigetaka Kurita for a Japanese phone operator is considered to be the precursor of modern-day emojis. The concept gained popularity in Japan and by 2010, Unicode rolled out a massive release of more than 1,000 emojis to get with the burgeoning trend – the rest is history.

    Different skin colors have been available for emojis since 2015. 2014 saw the release of the anti-bullying emoji “eye in speech bubble” in cooperation with The Ad Council, which produces public service announcements in the United States. Regional flags came to the service in 2017. Same-sex couples and same-sex families have been available since the first major emoji-release in 2010. The 2021 release also included the rollout of non-binary options and interracial couples.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/17/2022 – 21:00

  • "Weakest Links": March 2020 Was A Preview, Fragilities Are Now In Capital Markets And Liquidity Channels
    “Weakest Links”: March 2020 Was A Preview, Fragilities Are Now In Capital Markets And Liquidity Channels

    By Marcel Kasumovich, Head of Research at One River Asset Management

    Weakest Link I: Weak links lie within sectors and economies experiencing uninterrupted growth. Expectations are extrapolated from recent realities. Underwriting standards relax as growth hides risks. New Century Financial grew mortgage originations from $357mm in 1996 to $60bln in 2006. $1.2bln of capital. $17.4bln in credit lines. “CloseMore University” was the internal nickname. Originate. Sell. 60% dividend yield to discourage short-sellers. The sudden-stop in mortgage buying was the end of the line – the largest non-bank mortgage originator filed for bankruptcy April 2, 2007.

    Weakest Link II: Weak links exist without systemic financial risks. Take Freeport-McMoRan (FCX). Emerging markets, China, and commodities recovered swiftly from the 2008 crisis. Strong free cashflow encouraged FCX to diversify into shale oil and gas just as China was tightening credit, sparking a global recession. The market put high odds on FCX default – long-term debt fell to 40 cents on the dollar. The company deleveraged. Terrible for shareholders. Today’s supply constraints are born from the underinvestment in those weak-link moments.

    Weakest Link III: Commodities cratered in the 2015 downturn, expectations for terminal policy rates collapsed, and bond curves flattened. Long duration assets – broadly, like intellectual property – were the preferred investment. Buyouts surged: leverage companies with high free-cash-flow yields and use ‘cost synergies’ to deleverage. Even with rates low, those deals can be challenging. The Kraft-Heinz marriage in 2015 was funded by ballooning debt. But deleveraging was too slow. Shareholder value was destroyed. Another weak-link case study.

    Weakest Link IV: The clues for the next crisis are usually found in the solutions to the previous one. The post-GFC macro megatrend was to issue more debt and less equity. Less equity is less principal risk. Less principal risk lends itself to weaker underwriting. That trade was funded through capital markets after the GFC, not by banks who were in a regulatory penalty box. Dealers now have less than one-tenth the credit inventory than 2007. Fragilities are now in capital markets and liquidity channels. March 2020 was a preview. Policy either accommodates or intervenes.

    Weakest Link V: The leverage lending market – high yield bonds and leveraged loans – exploded to $3trln in 2021, double a decade earlier. Underwriting standards eroded. Covenants to protect creditors vanished. Opportunistic refinancing surge. But the tide is turning. JP Morgan took a $257mm write-down in Q2, stuck with loans they couldn’t move. Flexible pricing to discount unwanted loans is the new normal. Companies need to adjust – end buybacks, retain earnings. More principal risk. Fast or slow – excesses in leverage lending will be resolved.

    Weakest Link VI: Debtor countries are driving inflation. Creditor countries are not immune. Inflation flips the narrative – US dollar reserves are a captive tax against creditors, savers. China gross national savings is 45% of GDP versus 18% for the United States. Chinese households flocked to what they could – physical assets are an extreme 69.3% of their wealth. Real estate dominates. Underwriting is weak. Highly indebted builders are funded by presale deposits. Credit downgrades are now rampant. Demographics are a severe headwind. Regional economies are unbalanced, fueled by coal. Political, financial, and environment threats are acute.

    Weakest Link VII: The digital ecosystem is living its version of the GFC. Losses – some expected, many unforeseen – are being crystalized. It is small enough today with few direct linkages to the ‘real’ economy that digital is a spectator sport. But the areas of resiliency are the ones that can make the broader financial system stronger. Decentralized Autonomous Organizations brought risk-management changes to protocols at an unprecedented pace. It is for the public to see and learn from – its integration into the mainstream is part of the solution.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/17/2022 – 20:30

  • Relentless Heat Wave Pummeling Texas And Central Plains To Bring Hottest Temperatures Of Year
    Relentless Heat Wave Pummeling Texas And Central Plains To Bring Hottest Temperatures Of Year

    Extreme heat threatens Texas and the Southern Plains to start the new work week, with temperatures forecasted to exceed 100 degrees Fahrenheit. 

    This new round of heat could be the hottest yet. Large swaths of interior Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas could see predicted highs reaching 110 degrees Fahrenheit and heat indexes much higher. 

    Although triple-digit temperatures are typical for the Central Plains and Texas in July and August, the frequency in the number of 100-degree days is above average. 

    Take, for instance, Tulsa, Oklahoma. The metro area has just recorded its 11th 100-degree day of the season — the average for the entire season is ten.  

    The National Weather Service (NWS) tweeted Sunday afternoon, “Excessive heat will continue this week across parts of Southern Region. Heat advisories and excessive heat warnings are in effect today across TX/OK.”

    The heat will increase days after the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which operates Texas’ electric power grid, asked customers to conserve energy on Monday and Wednesday. ERCOT blamed grid strains on record high electric demand and the lack of wind and solar power. 

    Reuters noted that a handful of manufacturers, including Toyota Motor Corp., Samsung Electronics Co Ltd., General Motors Co., and LyondellBasell’s Houston refinery, dialed back energy usage to preserve grid stability. 

    Tesla Motors even asked owners of its electric cars not to charge “between 3 pm and 8 pm … to help statewide efforts to manage demand.”

    The same areas are under a dangerous and expanding worsening drought. 

    ERCOT could be forced to take emergency action and ask customers to conserve power Monday to avoid rolling blackouts as a relentless heatwave strains power supplies. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/17/2022 – 20:00

  • Bodycam Video, Report Exposes "Systemic, Egregious" Law Enforcement Failures In Uvalde School Mass Shooting
    Bodycam Video, Report Exposes “Systemic, Egregious” Law Enforcement Failures In Uvalde School Mass Shooting

    The Texas state House report into the Uvalde elementary school shooting in May that killed 21 people, including 19 children, said the massacre was unable to be stopped due to “systemic failures and egregious poor decision-making.” 

    The report obtained by the Texas Tribune attempts to piece together what happened during the 77 minutes after the alleged gunman, 18-year-old Uvalde High School dropout Salvador Ramos, entered Robb Elementary School until the point he was killed by a Border Patrol agent.

    “There is no one to whom we can attribute malice or ill motives. Instead, we found systemic failures and egregious poor decision making,” the report said, noting “shortcomings and failures of the Uvalde Consolidated Independent School District [CISD] and of various agencies and officers of law enforcement” and “an overall lackadaisical approach.”

    As Jack Phillips reports for The Epoch Times, those claims appear to coincide with statements made by top Texas officials days after the shootings.

    Texas Department of Public Safety Director Steve McCraw said May 27 that it was the “wrong decision” not to engage with the shooter, Salvador Ramos.

    Meanwhile, surveillance footage from Robb Elementary School released on July 12 shows officers waiting around more than 45 minutes before several officers approached the classroom where Ramos had entered.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The officers didn’t enter. It took more than 75 minutes for law enforcement to kill Ramos, 18, after he entered the building.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The report said that law enforcement failed to quickly confront the suspect and instead retreated to safety.

    “In this crisis, no responder seized the initiative to establish an incident command post,” it states.

    “Despite an obvious atmosphere of chaos, the ranking officers of other responding agencies did not approach the Uvalde CISD chief of police or anyone else perceived to be in command to point out the lack of and need for a command post, or to offer that specific assistance.”

    Some individual officers acted without instruction to try to reach the shooter and might have been able to do so if they had more backup, according to the paper.

    “Given the information known about victims who survived through the time of the breach and who later died on the way to the hospital, it is plausible that some victims could have survived if they had not had to wait 73 additional minutes for rescue,” the report reads.

    A force of 376 law enforcement officers responded to the mass shooting, according to the House panel, which said that there wasn’t clear leadership as they responded.

    Texas lawmakers on July 17 noted that Ramos was born in Fargo, North Dakota, before he was moved to Texas when he was a child. Ramos also may have been sexually abused as a child, the report states.

    Friends of the suspect, including a girlfriend, told investigators that Ramos became increasingly depressed during the COVID-19 pandemic. At one point, Ramos told the girlfriend that he wouldn’t live past age 18.

    Ramos in late 2021 also allegedly posted a video of himself holding a dead cat inside a bag. Footage also showed the future school shooter dry firing BB guns at people from a car, according to the report.

    In the wake of the shooting, which left 19 students and two teachers dead, congressional lawmakers used the tragedy to pass a gun control bill that included funding to bolster red flag laws and other measures, which was signed into law on June 25 by President Joe Biden.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/17/2022 – 19:30

  • With Bearish Sentiment Off The Charts, $5.5 Billion In Daily Stock Buybacks Set To Flood Markets
    With Bearish Sentiment Off The Charts, $5.5 Billion In Daily Stock Buybacks Set To Flood Markets

    On the one hand, what was the most bullish case for markets starting this month fizzled with a bang, when after a solid start to July and the best start to Q3 since 1980, stocks resumed their bear market slide, only to recover some losses toward the end of the week. In any case, the barely 1% rise in the first half of July was at best meh considering the lofty expectations for what has traditionally been the best two-week period of the year…

    … for markets.

    So as attention turns from what was a big dud of a strong calendar period, to what is already shaping up as a disappointing Q2 earnings season (with virtually all banks missing expectations across the board), the bulls are once again in retreat, and nowhere is this more obvious than in hedge fund positioning which according to Goldman’s Scott Rubner, “is so low, it has officially fallen off my chart.” Rubner then invites readers to take a look at some of this stuff, and points to Goldman’s Prime Broker hedge fund exposure, Futures Positioning, CTA, Risk Parity, noting that “I don’t think there is more marginal position left to sell, given large hedges vs. fundamental positions already in play.”

    Indeed, digging into the dispersion between single stocks and macro products we find that a record divergence where there has been little shorting at the index and ETF level, but nearly record shorting at t the single stock level!

    Meanwhile, away from increasingly bearish institutions, we noted lat week that retail investors are close to capitulating, but not quite yet, and according to Goldman, households – which represent “the most important investor in the markets” have not yet capitulated and remain in HODL mode, with “that $1.325 Trillion worth of “cumulative net inflows” remaining a cement block.”

    And until that massive wall of inflows refuses to budge, there is little risk of a liquidation flush. On the contrary, with sentiment crashing through the floor, it is far more likely that stocks are due for another (bear market) rally and/or short squeeze. All they need is a catalyst, especially since markets digested the risk of a 100bps rate hike and actually rose on the news.

    That catalyst may be the return of buybacks: according to Goldman, stocks will see a whopping $300B worth of US Corporate buyback execution in Q3 (Q2 data is still TBD but Q1 was $312BN for all US stocks). Some math:

    • Days in Q3 = 61
    • Days in Q3 open window 55
    • $300B / 55 = $5.5B per day, every day, starting on July 22nd. VWAP + VOL muting.

    The fundamental question, does $5.5B worth of demand, help mute overall earnings guidance weakness per diem? According to Ruber “the answer is yes” but that’s to be expected, after all he is the resident Goldman permabull and the bank’s equivalent of JPM’s Marko Kolanovic.

    In conclusion, Rubner sums up current sentiment as follows:

    1. The bearish trade is very consensus, when I talk about very consensus, I mean very very consensus. I got more pings this week, than any week of 2022.
    2. The bearish view is already reflected in current market positioning and extreme over hedges.

    Bonus chart from Rubner who notes that “this is cash levels (money markets + mutual fund cash) – this is elevated and looking for dip alpha.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/17/2022 – 19:00

  • Morgan Stanley: Central Banks Are Increasingly Out Of Balance
    Morgan Stanley: Central Banks Are Increasingly Out Of Balance

    By Seth Carpetner, global chief economist at Morgan Stanley

    Divergences in policy rates are now in focus, accentuated by the sharp depreciation of the yen and the euro. I want to turn attention to the divergent paths for central bank balance sheets.

    Fed quantitative tightening (QT) started in June, and the pace will double in September. While the ECB’s balance sheet has started to shrink a bit as targeted long-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) are repaid, the contraction is small, and prepaying TLTROs is very different than QT. And the shrinking may not last as the ECB confronts peripheral spreads. The BoJ could go in the opposite direction, and yield curve control (YCC) could turn into substantial QE if markets keep testing the Bank. These balance sheet differences will only become starker.

    In absolute terms, the ECB and the Fed have the largest balance sheets, with the BoJ a distant third. But relative to GDP, the BoJ has the biggest by far, with the ECB second. The Fed is an outlier on the low side, and as its QT continues and accelerates, the Fed’s footprint will contract further while the BoJ’s will likely grow.

    The Fed started trimming its balance sheet last month, and the pace of the unwind will accelerate in September to $60bn per month of Treasuries and $35bn per month of MBS. The Fed plans to let QT run in the background, and it seems very likely to me that balance sheet runoff keeps going even if the economy stalls (for a differing opinion from BofA’s Marc Cabana, see here). Chair Powell keeps reminding us that the FOMC wants the funds rate to be tool of first recourse, so if we get to the point of the economy faltering, there will be room to cut. Indeed, that narrative is priced into the futures curve already.

    For the ECB, the balance sheet trajectory is complicated. QT and TLTRO prepayments are not the same. Running off securities gives the market no choice—the central bank calls the shots. With TLTROs, commercial banks have the option to prepay at their discretion. Indeed, as our Europe team has noted, prepayments have been on the low side of expectations. Proper QT for the ECB is far off. Moreover, the ECB’s vow to contain peripheral spreads with a yet-to-be defined “anti-fragmentation tool” points to a potentially significant upside risk to the size of its balance sheet.

    The BoJ is at the other end of the spectrum. Relative to GDP (and even more so, relative to the size of the sovereign debt market), the BoJ’s balance sheet is already an outlier to the upside. And despite the fall in the yen, inflation is still lower in Japan than other DMs, leaving Governor Kuroda committed to his very accommodative policy stance. That mindset will confront slower global growth that weighs on Japanese growth. Against this backdrop, our Japan team revised the call for the timing of a shift in YCC. Whereas we had thought that a tweak would come in October, allowing the JGB curve to drift upward, we now expect YCC to be maintained until the second quarter of next year, after Governor Kuroda is replaced by a successor. With the market increasingly likely to test the BoJ, I see the risks to the balance sheet as skewed substantially to the upside.

    Markets have a lot to digest. Following the Covid shock, all major central banks were moving in the same direction but no longer, and market liquidity will be buffeted by severe crosscurrents. The irony is that the risks come from both larger and smaller balance sheets. In dollar markets, a lot more Treasuries and MBS will have to be absorbed as financing costs are rising. In JGBs, the BoJ already owns half the market, and more might be coming.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/17/2022 – 18:30

  • Republicans Freak As Ukrainian-Born GOP Colleague Trash Talks Zelensky
    Republicans Freak As Ukrainian-Born GOP Colleague Trash Talks Zelensky

    House Republicans are seriously regretting giving Ukraine-born GOP Rep. Victoria Spartz a platform to speak on the war, after she started lobbing intense criticism at president Volodomyr Zelensky and his administration, drawing a rare rebuke last weekend from the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, which said she was “trying to earn extra political capital on baseless speculation.”

    Rep. Victoria Spartz, who emigrated from Ukraine, speaks during a press conference about a Senate resolution calling for accountability for Russian President Vladimir Putin, Wednesday, March 2, 2022, at the Capitol in Washington. | Mariam Zuhaib/AP Photo

    According to Politico, Republicans within the GOP Conference have “widespread fear” that her outspoken posture will damage US-Ukraine relations, and that the MAGA wing of their party – which has seen growing opposition to US support of the Ukraine war – will point to Spartz’s comments as justification.

    Spartz, who has traveled to Ukraine about six time since the war began, released a statement earlier this months calling on Zelensky to “stop playing politics and theater” and “start governing to better support his military and local government.”

    She also accused President Joe Biden of “playing politics” and said that he needs to present a “clear strategy and align security assistance with our strategy.”

    Lastly, she called on lawmakers to “establish proper oversight of critical infrastructure and delivery of weapons and aid,” a concern shared among progressives over the possibility that the weapons could end up in the wrong hands.

    The extraordinary statement comes after Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) asked President Joe Biden to brief Congress on years-old allegations against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak. Earlier this week, the freshman lawmaker also slammed both Biden and Zelenskyy for their approaches to the ongoing war, infuriating officials in both countries. -Politico

    One anonymous GOP lawmaker who serves on the House Foreign Affairs Committee told Politico “Her naiveness is hurting our own people,” adding “It is not helpful to what we’re trying to do and I’m not sure her facts are accurate … We have vetted these guys.”

    Another senior House Republican who spoke on condition of anonymity simply said “What the fuck.”

    Panic Spreads:

    A third House Republican granted anonymity to speak candidly about Spartz said she has a reputation for elbowing her way into briefings and meetings for committees she doesn’t belong to, like the Foreign Affairs panel, where multiple members have tried to address her comments behind closed doors.

    The Biden administration is even getting involved — another sign of growing worries that Spartz’s comments may damage cohesion among the Western coalition in defense of Kyiv. A Foreign Affairs Committee aide, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the U.S. intelligence community is planning to brief Spartz about her claims in a classified setting Friday morning. -Politico

    “I don’t share her criticisms,” said Seen Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who has collaborated with Spartz on legislation concerning Ukraine. “I believe that the Zelenskyy government and the Ukrainian people have risen to the moment. It is in our national security interest to stand with the Ukrainian people and their elected leadership.”

    Spartz defended herself to Politico in a statement:

    “Growing up in Ukraine and visiting six times since the war started, I have a comprehensive understanding of the situation on the ground,” adding “The stakes are too high to be reactive without deliberation — as intended for our institution.”

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/17/2022 – 18:00

  • Logistics Warehouse Activity May Cool As Interest Rates Heat Up
    Logistics Warehouse Activity May Cool As Interest Rates Heat Up

    By Mark Solomon of FreightWaves

    Nothing in the second-quarter data indicates that the 12-year bull market for U.S. logistics warehousing, and the trends of e-commerce growth and the need for businesses to maintain high inventory levels that have driven the surge, are close to ending. 

    The industrial construction pipeline hit an unprecedented 699 million square feet in the quarter, up 112% from pre-pandemic levels and 177% above the 10-year average, according to Cushman & Wakefield, a real estate services firm. New leasing activity for the year is tracking to exceed 800 million square feet, which would mark only the second year ever at such a lofty perch, Cushman said. 

    Nationwide vacancy rates plunged in the quarter to 3.1%, 120 basis points below a year ago, according to Cushman data. Every U.S. region that Cushman canvasses reported under 4% vacancy rates for the second consecutive quarter. Twenty markets reported vacancy rates of less than 2%.

    In Chicago, the country’s largest industrial market with more than 1.2 billion square feet of inventory, 8.1 million square feet were developed, the greatest second-quarter completion total in the market’s history, according to Colliers International Group Inc, a real estate services firm. According to Colliers data, 20 projects totaling 8.1 million square feet commenced during the quarter in the Chicago market.

    Colliers said that the Chicago market experienced in the quarter an uptick in vacancy rates for speculative development, where projects are undertaken with no formal end-user commitment, as well as a drop in leasing activity for the category. However, those changes reflect how tight the market has become and are likely more of a blip on the radar than a meaningful trend.

    Two weeks into the third quarter, though, anecdotal evidence is pointing to a break in the action. Institutional investors who have pumped billions of dollars into the industrial market in search of higher yields in a low interest rate environment have hit the pause button, concerned about how to price real estate returns in an environment of higher interest rates and of the future direction of borrowing costs with the Federal Reserve in aggressive tightening mode. 

    Jack Rosenberg, Colliers’ Chicago-based national director of logistics and transportation who represents industrial tenants, said that “cap rates,” which determine the annual return on a property’s investment by dividing its value with its net operating income, have begun to creep up due to the higher cost of money. A higher cap rate means the investment will likely yield less than it would have if interest rates were lower.  

    Lack of clarity into the speed, extent and duration of rate hikes will slow, if not stop, development, Rosenberg said. That’s because no one knows what cap rates will look like in 12 to 18 months when the project is leased and is ready to be sold. One major developer and a significant investor, neither of whom Rosenberg would identify, are in “pencils down” mode, industry lingo for a corporate pause. Projects slated to begin this fall are being pushed into next spring. In the meantime, sale prices per square foot have been dropping, and buyers are requesting changes in their favor to contractual terms of projects currently under contract.

    The angst over the Fed’s actions extends to developers as well. Lisa DeNight, national industrial research director at Newmark Group, a real estate services firm, said higher capital costs are leading some developers to halt or abandon projects. Some developers are even selling development sites. Unsurprisingly, “new construction starts have begun to slow, but still remain historically elevated,” she said.

    A different cycle

    This isn’t the first rate tightening cycle the industrial market has managed through since 2010. What’s different about this cycle is that it dovetails with construction cost inflation, labor shortages and long lead times for materials due to continued global supply chain disruptions. 

    As bottlenecks ease and commodity prices decline due to market expectations that higher rates will curtail end demand, more supply will hit the markets and will do so at lower prices. However, that won’t occur until 2023 at the earliest, according to Newmark.

    The average permitting and construction process for new industrial projects is taking five months longer than it did in 2019, DeNight said, and the average order lead times for a critical commodity like roofing materials remain at 30 to 50 weeks. Progress on obtaining necessary building permits continues to be hamstrung by understaffed local governments.

    “Every stage of the construction timeline has been hampered by two years of challenges that are unlikely to subside during the balance of 2022,” DeNight said.

    Despite higher rates, most projects now underway will be seen through to completion, said John Morris, Americas president of industrial & logistics for real estate services firm CBRE Group Inc. Morris said that the 12- to 18-month lead time for end-to-end project completions means that it will take five or six quarters for the impact of rate hikes to be dramatically felt in the industrial market.

    For now, occupier demand remains strong as e-commerce sales stay elevated and as tenants ensure they can occupy facilities ahead of the peak holiday season. Overall occupier demand is about 95% of what it was at this time a year ago, Morris said. Any slowdown will come from the supply side and not from demand, he said. 

    Rosenberg said that none of his clients have indicated they are putting their leasing needs on hold, although he acknowledged that the people he works directly with are typically the last to know if a project is being shelved.

    Carolyn Salzer, Americas head of logistics and industrial research at Cushman, said the supply-demand scales continue to favor lessors. “Right now, there just isn’t enough space out there for occupiers in general,” Salzer said. “What we have heard is that if a tenant needs to be in a market, they will make it work.” 

    Tenants will have more leverage should supply begin to exceed demand, which, if it happens, will be a 2023 story,  she added.

    The variable in all this is whether higher rates will trigger a recession, which could trigger a sustainable drop in consumer demand. Should consumers pull back, occupiers’ appetites will dull quickly, leading to a decline in rents and an increase in vacancy rates. However, should the economy avoid a contraction and new development continues to slow, then competition for available space is likely to surge and rents will soar.  

    The many crosscurrents buffeting industrial real estate have produced a degree of murkiness that stakeholders are unaccustomed to. When asked for directional clarity, Rosenberg replied, “I’ll say, ‘Who the hell knows’ because nobody knows.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/17/2022 – 17:30

  • Did The Swiss Central Bank Quietly Move Its Gold
    Did The Swiss Central Bank Quietly Move Its Gold

    By Jan Nieuwenhuijs of Gainesville Coins

    In Switzerland it’s a state secret where the central bank stores its gold domestically. From all the information I could gather I conclude the Swiss central bank primarily stores its gold—and that of foreign central banks and the Bank for International Settlements—on Bundesplatz 1 in the capital Berne.

    This vault may be one of the largest globally. However, due to a renovation the vault is now empty. The metal has temporarily been transferred to a federal bunker near Kandersteg, deep in the Swiss mountains.

    Source: Martin Ruetschi / Keystone.

    What led me to research this topic is a multi-year delay of a gold shipment by the Austrian central bank (OeNB) from London to Switzerland. From reading my previous article on this subject, some could be tempted to think OeNB’s gold is gone, or that the Bank Of England is obstructing the transfer. According to my analysis, though, London isn’t the problem. OeNB’s shipment was supposed to be in Berne by now, but due to a delay in the renovation of the vault the gold hasn’t been transferred yet.

    To get to the bottom of this we will examine the vaults of the Swiss central bank in this article. In a following article I will present more proof of OeNB postponing to ship metal to the vault in Berne.

    The first two chapters serve as an introduction. If you are short on time you can skip to the third.

    The Swiss Have Been Digging Caves for Centuries

    If there is one country that excels in building tunnels and caverns, it’s Switzerland. Berne was founded around 1200 on a peninsula in the river Aare. The peninsula is shaped as a hill due to the wear of the water. Enclosed by the Aare, the Old City could be easily defended by a wall at the West. The safety within this natural fortress allowed the city to flourish.

    Source: Wikimedia. Map of the Old City of Berne, 1635.

    Many of the early inhabitants of Berne had vineyards outside of the city. Already in the 13th century cellars were being constructed below the buildings in the city, for more room and the right climate to preserve wine. The soil in Berne, consisting mostly of gravel and sand put there by glaciers during the last Ice Age, is well suited for constructing cellars. The weight of the ice caused the soil to compress¹. Today, many of the cellars are being used as bars, restaurants, shops, and more.

    Source: Alamy

    Since 1983 the Old City of Berne is UNESCO world heritage site for its exceptionally coherent planning concept. Berne has always retained its historical character, presenting variations of the late Baroque period and Late Middle Ages. The Old City continues to be a place for living, working and commerce.

    The first tunnel in Switzerland was built in 1707 to ease the passage over the Gotthard Massif Mountain in the Alps. Ever since, more road, railway, waterway, and maintenance tunnels have been built, by now totaling an astonishing 2,000 kilometers in length.

    The Alps are in the South of Switzerland

    In the 1880s the Swiss started to build a line of fortifications in the Alps for the army to retreat and defend their country against a foreign invasion. In the Second World War a network of military tunnels and bunkers was added.

    During the Cold War, in 1963, Switzerland undertook to provide bunkers for all citizen to take shelter in case of a nuclear attack. At one point, there were an estimated 300,000 fallout shelters. After the Cold War many of the bunkers in the Alps were considered obsolete. Some were reopened as hotels and museums, or found other uses.

    Switzerland’s Vast Gold Market

    Switzerland is one of the largest physical gold markets globally. Not very much is known about it though, because discretion is one of the services that make this market attractive.

    Before the 1930s banking secrecy was an unwritten rule in Switzerland. This rule was enshrined in legislation in 1935, which, together with political neutrality, made Swiss banks attractive for foreigner capital: currency, bank deposits, and gold.

    When in 1968 the Gold Pool collapsed and the London Bullion Market closed for two weeks, Swiss banks reacted aggressively by trying to take over market share from London. Refining capacity began shifting from London to Switzerland. Currently, there are no London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) accredited refineries left in the U.K., while in Switzerland there are four giants: Valcambi, PAMP, Argor-Heraeus, and Metalor.

    Every year roughly 2,000 tonnes of gold moves through the Swiss refineries, measured by non-monetary gold import and export.

    Swiss gold trade data, 2012–2021

    Next to the vaults of the refineries, there are vaults of commercial banks², secure logistics companies (Brinks, Loomis, Malca-Amit, etc.), and the Swiss central bank. In addition, after the Cold War several military bunkers in the Alps have been sold to niche vaulting companies that built storage rooms for precious metals and other valuables in the deep caverns.

    There is no centralized gold exchange in Switzerland, so all trade is done over-the-counter. Because a few large Swiss bullion banks have their head office in the center of Zurich, an often used short-hand reference to the Swiss gold market is, “Zurich.” However, this can be misleading as not all physical trading is concentrated in Zurich. For example:

    • There are refineries in the far South of Switzerland and in the West.
    • Brinks has gold vaults in Zurich, Geneva, and Chiasso. Malca-Amit has vaults in Zurich and Geneva. Loomis told me it “can store gold all over Switzerland.”
    • Numerous other vaults can be found in old military bunkers in the Alps across the South.
    • Retail dealers and safety deposit boxes are all over the country.
    • Many watchmakers are in the West.

    And, as we will see below, monetary gold is (normally) stored in Berne.

    Officially, the domestic gold storage locations of the Swiss central bank (Schweizerische National Bank, SNB) are a state secret. In April 2013, SNB revealed 20% of its 1,040 tonnes of gold is stored at the Bank of England, 10% is at the Bank of Canada, and 70% is held domestically “in its own vaults.” Questions in parliament about the domestic storage locations are not answered for security reasons. Regardless of the locations of the vaults, SNB does confirm it stores gold for foreign central banks.

    The Swiss Central Bank’s Main Gold Vault Is in Berne

    There is a considerable amount of evidence that most of SNB’s gold has always been stored in Berne. An important source I have used for my research is a book published by SNB in 2012, celebrating the 100th anniversary of their head office in Berne. The title of the book is, “Die Schweizerische Nationalbank in Bern Eine illustrierte Chronik” (DSN hereafter).

    When SNB was erected in 1907, it was decided to build two head offices to distribute the balance of power. One in Berne, the political center and capital of Switzerland, and one in Zurich, the financial center. SNB was divided into three departments of which Department I and III settled in Zurich. Department II in Berne took responsibility for all issues relating bank notes, the management of gold reserves (the receipt, dispatch and storage of gold bars and coins), and dealings with the federal administration.

    The head office in Berne at Bundesplatz 1, with its gold vault in the basement, was completed in 1912. It’s located in the Old City next to the Federal Palace that houses the Federal Parliament and Federal Council.

    Source: ASNB, GE-BE-BUND-192, Copyright SNB. The Swiss central bank’s head office in Berne.

    Source: ASNB, GE-BE-BUND-107, Copyright SNB. Drawing by architect Eduard Joos of SNB’s head office at Bundesplatz 1, Berne, Switzerland.

    The building in red, on Bundesplatz 1, was SNB’s first permanent building in Berne. SNB would later rent offices in the Bundeshaus Nord (red dotted line), and the Kaiserhaus (blue) was bought by SNB in 1971. The Federal Palace is on Bundesplatz 3.

    After SNB established itself on Bundesplatz, it attracted commercial banks with political as well as financial interest to the area. On Google Maps it shows SNB is still surrounded by commercial banks. Having banks in close proximity can have eased SNB’s gold dealings in Berne.

    Source: Google Maps Bundesplatz, Berne, June 2022.

    Until and through the Second World War, Berne retained its standing as a monetary gold hub. In the 1990s, a commission investigated SNB’s role in World War II regarding gold dealings with the German central bank (Reichsbank). The final report discloses that during the war many central banks had used SNB’s vault. The following tables show the Reichsbank’s deposits at SNB, and to which entities the Reichsbank sold. Clearly, these deposits and trades were done at the SNB vault in Berne.

    Gold Transactions in the Second World War: Statistical Review with Commentary

    Source: Gold Transactions in the Second World War: Statistical Review with Commentary. The Bank for International Settlements traded gold, inter alia, from SNB’s vault in Berne.

    During and after the Second World War, SNB’s gold reserves went up significantly. What’s not mentioned in DNS is that shortly after the war the main building went through two renovations.

    In the 1950s and 1960s not only did SNB’s gold reserves mushroom, but also those of other European central banks that, I assume, stored gold at SNB in that period.

    In 1946, the first basement floor was modified, according to the building archive of the city of Berne. No details of the renovation are publicly available, but given SNB’s gold reserves were swelling and the vault was in the basement of the building, we may assume the vault was renovated. In 1951 and 1952 an underground air raid shelter (luftschutzkeller) was constructed. The same architect that renovated the vault in 1946, Otto Brechbühl, was hired to build the shelter.

    But did he built a shelter, or add extra floors to the vault?

    The authors of DSN state Department II was in need of space in the 1950s. “New safes were installed in the early 1950s,” they write, which could refer to Brechbühl’s work. In the late 1950s, “the main cash desk also requested an underground bullion office between the main building and the Bundeshaus Nord [the building on the east side of the main building where SNB rented offices] for shipping and packaging the gold.”

    The authors of DSN, of course, cannot be fully truthful. Security details and other information about the vault must be concealed.

    Source: ASNB, GE-BE-BUND-112, Copyright SNB, 1960. Everything drawn in black was new (neu). In blue/black is the new bullion office, in red/black a new boardroom.

    Above is a drawing of the building from 1960 taken from DNS. It displays the main building on the right, a segment of the Bundeshaus Nord on the left, and (in blue) the newly planned bullion office. We can also see the shelter (luftschutzturm) in dotted lines.

    In the drawing the shelter is labeled as an “air raid tower.” The word “tower” implies there are multiple floors. Interestingly, the lower compartments of the shelter have no floor, indicating the drawing is incomplete. So why doesn’t the drawing show the entire shelter? Why is the shelter more than 15 meters deep? Why is only the shelter drawn in dotted lines? What’s so special about this structure?

    According to DNS the bullion office was constructed from 1961 until 1963, a renovation which isn’t recorded in the building archive of the city of Berne. The reason why both records are incomplete is secrecy. I tried to obtain plans, drawings, and building permits from the renovation in 1946, 1951–1952, 1961–1963, and all others that followed, from the building archive and SNB’s own archive. Without exception I was told all documents are classified as “SECRET” or “sensitive,” and can’t be viewed.

    Most likely the dotted lines in the drawing above don’t show a shelter, but the entrance from the bullion office to a vault consisting of several floors stretching out beneath the old basement and beyond.

    Source: ASNB, AS-BE-1963-29, Copyright SNB. The bullion office, 1963.

    For a fact the vault is larger than what’s shown on the drawing from 1960. In 2018 Bluewin journalists managed to view drawings from Berne’s geoinformation department. Below is a screenshot of the video showing a plan of Bundesplatz. An expert concludes SNB’s basement stretches out about 10 meters underneath the square. No (public) record reveals the basement has been enlarged underneath the square. What else has been omitted?

    Source: Bluewin.

    A retiree named Othmar Dillon, who used to work at Berne’s cadastral survey (Amtliche Vermessung), told newspaper Der Bund he had been inside the vault on Bundesplatz 1 multiple times since the 1970s. He saw the gold there. According to Dillon the vault reached down the level of the river Aare, which would imply it’s 40 meters deep in total. Depending on the number of floors built, and the sharpness of Dillon’s memory, the gold vault could be up to 10,000 square meters.

    The article from 2008 quoting Dillon was lost from the internet but Der Bund gave me approval to republish it (download here). I checked with Berne’s resident’s database and Dillon does indeed exist. Sadly, I haven’t been able to contact him.

    Other sources substantiate the vault on Bundesplatz 1 is sizable. In 2013 a journalist from SRF was allowed to film SNB’s monetary gold. Below is a screenshot of the video that was published.

    Source: SRF. The floor tiles seem identical to the ones used in the bullion office.

    The video is highly likely from inside the vault on Bundesplatz 1, and not some other vault. Photographer Martin Ruetschi was allowed to enter SNB’s vault in Berne in 2001 (after pushing for ten years). If one compares Ruetschi’s pictures (see below) with the video, they both show the same racks for the gold and the same floor tiles. Removing more doubt is a copy from Ruetschi’s series in DNS.

    Ruetschi said he was “led through a long labyrinth of corridors and finally through the thick vault door” before he could take the pictures. That sounds there are more than two floors in the basement.

    Source: Martin Ruetschi / Keystone. Gold in the vault of the Swiss National Bank, photographed on February 21, 2001, in Berne

    Source: Martin Ruetschi / Keystone. Gold in the vault of the Swiss National Bank, photographed on February 21, 2001, in Berne. The bar handler uses an ultrasound device to analyze the material homogeneity. This suggests gold bars continuously come in and need to be tested, likely due to the BIS’s gold dealings. SNB hasn’t bought any gold since the 1960s. The amount of storage supply in the back, all the wood, also shows this is an active warehouse.

    The forklift in SRF’s video reveals there must be a heavy-duty elevator down to the vault. Forklifts themselves can weigh up to several tonnes because they use counterweights for the load they carry on the fork. Observing the latest drawing from 1960 and recent images from Google Street View makes me think there is an elevator near the entrances for armored trucks on the south side of the building, leading down to the bullion office and floors below. Right about where the “shelter tower” is.

    Source: Google Street View. One of the two entrances for armored trucks on the south side of SNB’s main building in Berne. It reads on the door that the carry load for trucks entering is up to 26 tonnes.

    The forklift also confirms this is a large and active vault, storing gold not only for SNB but also for foreign central banks and the Bank for International Settlements (and Swiss bank notes).

    On the website of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), they state they offer central banks, “gold location exchange, safekeeping and settlement: loco London, Berne or New York.” The reference to a vault in Berne, which the BIS uses since the 1930s, must be at Bundesplatz 1.

    In the 1970s, SNB continued expanding its presence on Bundesplatz. In 1971 it bought a property north of the main building: the Kaiserhaus. Due to stringent planning codes in the Old City, SNB had to think of a construction concept in line with the city’s aesthetic and functional needs, as well as its own. It was decided the ground and first floor of the Kaiserhaus were rented to shops. The upper floors could be used for offices and other purposes. A basement was also constructed. “The most difficult work was in the basement,” the authors of DNS write.

    There is a photo of a tunnel connecting the main building and Kaiserhaus on page 90 of DNS. The floor of the tunnel looks to be covered with soft plastic, though, which is not suited for a forklift. I don’t think there is a gold vault underneath the Kaiserhaus.

    Source: ASNB, GE-BE-BUND-180, Copyright SNB. A tunnel between Bundesplatz 1 and the Kaiserhaus

    Kandersteg’s Federal Bunker

    In 1999 Swiss journalists discovered that the government had arranged a classified command facility near Kandersteg in the Alps, 40 miles south of Berne, to hide during a nuclear attack. Since 2004 the exact coordinates of the facility are publicly known.

    Source: Wikimedia. The entrance of the federal bunker near Kandersteg in the Swiss Alps. From here a tunnel leads deep into the mountains.

    For nearly two decades not a word was written about any gold being stored at the bunker dubbed “K20.” Then, in 2018, independent journalist Henry Habegger reported K20 also incorporates an SNB vault. People familiar with the matter shared with Habegger that when K20 was built, SNB took the opportunity to acquire a nuclear bomb-proof vault for its gold reserves. K20 has room for 6,000 tonnes of gold. The people that live in Kandersteg have often seen armored trucks driving through, escorted by army vehicles in full gear, including machine guns.

    According to my analysis, all gold inside the vault in Berne has been moved to Kandersteg but will return within a few years. Here’s why.

    In February 2015 an extensive construction project began to renovate SNB’s main building and the Kaiserhaus in Berne. At the time of writing, the main building is finished (everything above ground), but the Kaiserhaus construction is still ongoing. Below are images of the renovation from Google Street View, Maps, and Earth taken in 2017 and 2022.

    Source: Google Street View, July 2017.

    Source: Google Maps, July 2022.

    Source: Google Earth, May 2022.

    A white fence is visible around the Kaiserhaus (at Amthausgasse) and in front of one of the entrances for armored trucks on the south side of the main building. Together with other evidence, this tells me the vault is out of service.

    One, a Swiss journalist that helped me during my research—he prefers to stay anonymous—spoke to one of SNB’s directors at a media dinner in 2016. Regarding the renovation the director told him that, “you can assume that the gold is at a secure place.” He was told the gold was moved out for the renovation.

    Two, in 2015, the Austrian court of audits stated OeNB—then and now storing 6 tonnes of gold in Switzerland—would have limited access to audit its metal in Switzerland due to renovation work at the depository until 2018. Afterwards the renovation audits could take place normally. The earliest projections by SNB were that the renovation would be finished late 2018. (In a following article I will show more evidence OeNB’s 6 tonnes in Switzerland is currently at an SNB vault, and another 50 tonnes is destined to an SNB vault.)

    Conclusion

    It can’t be a coincidence that OeNB has limited access at its SNB vault in Switzerland, Bundesplatz 1 is renovated around the same time, and a story about an active gold vault in Kandersteg pops up in Swiss media around the same time as well. Normally, OeNB’s gold, other foreign central banks’ gold, the BIS’s gold, and most of SNB’s gold is at Bundesplatz 1, but due to the renovation it was moved to K20.

    I conclude SNB prefers to keep most of its gold in Berne, because historically this is the main vault. After the Second World War, when SNB’s reserves ballooned, vaults could have been built anywhere in Switzerland, still SNB decided to enlarge the vault at Bundesplatz.

    Furthermore, the fact OeNB’s gold in Kandersteg will be returned to Berne, tells me SNB’s own gold will be returned as well (or at least what was stored in Berne previously). Why return OeNB’s gold but not the Swiss gold? If the vault in Kandersteg, mind you it can hold 6,000 tonnes, was superior to the one in Berne, SNB could have told OeNB the vault was moved permanently. New custodial contracts could have been signed, and the Austrians could have been granted full access to audit their gold in Kandersteg. But that’s not what happened. Not in 2015 when the renovation in Berne started, and not in 1999 when K20 was completed.

    Can it be SNB also has a vault in Zurich and in other places? Yes. There is just very little evidence any of these vaults play a significant role in storing metal belonging to SNB, foreign central banks, and the BIS. Needless to say, I will report accordingly if I find new evidence.

    The renovation in Berne is now set to be completed in 2024. Then, or just before, the gold can be returned to Bundesplatz 1. OeNB will have normal auditing access, and it will send another 50 tonnes to Switzerland.

    Any remaining blanks and questions will be addressed in my following article (“Why Austria’s Monetary Gold Transfer to Switzerland Is Delayed”) here on Gainesville Coins.

    Notes

    1. Information on the history of Berne’s cellars I have mostly based on private communication with archeologist Armand Baeriswyl, Lecturer in Medieval and Modern Archaeology at the University of Bern.

    2. Several commercial banks have vaults in the center of Zurich, such as Zürcher Kantonalbank and Bank Julius Baer, that store gold to back ETFs (source: Ronan Manly from Bullionstar). There are also large gold vaults near Zurich airport in a bonded warehouse. Two commercial banks that have their head office in Berne, Valiant Bank and Berner Kantonalbank (BEKB), have disclosed to have underground vaults below their buildings at Bundesplatz, though these appear to be mainly used for safety deposit boxes. From Berner Zeitung in 2020 (Google Translate):

    The two Bern banks, Valiant and Berner Kantonalbank, also have their headquarters on Bundesplatz in downtown Bern. The vaults with the customer’s lockers are located in the basements of the two banks, as Valiant spokesman Marc Andrey and BEKB spokesman Florian Kurz say.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/17/2022 – 17:30

  • Housing Market Peaks: Home Prices Finally Drop From All-Time Highs
    Housing Market Peaks: Home Prices Finally Drop From All-Time Highs

    If it was the Biden admin’s intention to crush the housing market (with the help of the Fed’s rate hikes) and spark a powerful recession just so it can lower inflation, well “mission accomplished.”

    Just one month after we warned that a Housing Crash was Imminent as “Mortgage Rates Explode Price Cuts Soar And Buyer Demand Collapses”, when as a result of surging 30Y mortgage rates which have spiked at the fastest rate on record…

    … we noted that the housing market had just gotten the most unffordable in history…

    … setting the stage for a sharp repricing lower in home prices.

    Late last week we got confirmation from Redfin, which reported that  the median sale price for U.S. homes came down 0.7% from its record-breaking June peak during the four weeks ending July 10.

    And with the housing market undergoing a shock repricing, as bid-ask levels soar in search of marginal prices, home sales fell nearly 16% from a year ago, the largest decline since May 2020. The shift has also started impacting sale prices: They’re still growing by double digits, but the 11% year-over-year increase is the smallest in nearly two years.

    Sellers’ asking prices also came down 3% from their May peak as the share of homes with price drops hit another new high.

    According to a separate RedFin report, the number of homes for sale nationwide in June rose 2% the first annual increase since July 2019, before the pandemic-fueled homebuying frenzy sapped the market of available homes and sent buyers into bidding wars for nearly every listing. Now, supply has built up as the combination of 5.5%-plus mortgage rates, high home prices and a faltering economy push more buyers to the sidelines, thereby creating a more balanced market.

    Meanwhile, as sellers slowly start to realize that the winds have turned and are about to flood home supply posted its first year-over-year increase since August 2019 as pending sales continued to slide. As shown in the next chart, active listings (the number of homes listed for sale at any point during the period) rose 1.3% year over year—the largest increase since August 2019.

    “The country’s economic woes have already cooled the housing market, and they’re likely to continue dampening demand,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “The Fed has signaled it may increase interest rates further to combat stubbornly high inflation, which could harm consumer confidence, and lower stock prices mean fewer prospective homebuyers can afford a down payment. I advise sellers to commit: If you decide to sell, do it quickly before demand potentially falls further. And price carefully—this is not the time to test the waters. You’ll do more harm than good if you overprice and have to do a price reduction or take the home off the market.”

    Worse, as liquidity-sensitive homeowners rush to sell ahead of the herd, Redfin has recorded more price drops than any time since at least 2015…

    … and the average home will soon sell for less than its listing price: in July, the average sale-to-list price ratio, which measures how close homes are selling to their asking prices, declined to 101.6%. In other words, the average home sold for 1.6% above its asking price. This was down from 102.2% a year earlier.

    As Redfin concludes, “these changes in the housing market can be attributed to buyers reaching their limit on costs—not just of homes and mortgages, but also food, transportation and energy.”

    ”Inflation and high mortgage rates are taking a bite out of homebuyer budgets,“ said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. “Few people are able to afford homes costing 50% more than just two years ago in some areas, so homes are beginning to pile up on the market. As a result, prices are starting to come down from their all-time highs. We expect this environment of reduced competition and declining home prices to continue for at least the next several months.”

    Here are some more details from the latest Redfin report:

    • The median home sale price was up 12% year over year to $393,449. This was down 0.7% from the peak during the four-week period ending June 19. A year ago the median price rose 0.9% during the same period. The year-over-year growth rate was down from the March peak of 16%.
    • The median asking price of newly listed homes increased 14% year over year to $397,475, but was down 2.8% from the all-time high set during the four-week period ending May 22. Last year during the same period median prices were down just 0.9%.
    • The monthly mortgage payment on the median asking price home hit $2,387 at the current 5.51% mortgage rate, up 44% from $1,663 a year earlier, when mortgage rates were 2.88%. That’s down slightly from the peak of $2,487 reached during the four weeks ending June 12.
    • Pending home sales were down 14% year over year, the largest decline since May 2020.
    • New listings of homes for sale were down 1.7% from a year earlier.
    • Active listings (the number of homes listed for sale at any point during the period) rose 1.3% year over year—the largest increase since August 2019.
    • 43% of homes that went under contract had an accepted offer within the first two weeks on the market, down from 47% a year earlier.
    • 29% of homes that went under contract had an accepted offer within one week of hitting the market, down from 33% a year earlier.
    • Homes that sold were on the market for a median of 18 days, flat from a year earlier and up slightly from the record low of 15 days set in May and early June.
    • 51% of homes sold above list price, down from 54% a year earlier.
    • On average, 7.1% of homes for sale each week had a price drop, a record high as far back as the data goes, through the beginning of 2015.

    There’s more: while rents are still rising by double digits year over year, the latest Apartment List data shows that the rate of increase is now the lowest since Aug 2021, a reversal which the Owner Equivalent Rent metric which is a lagging indicator, won’t notice for at least another 6-9 months.

    The bottom line is that the market is now is a mixed bag for buyers. They’re seeing higher monthly housing payments than earlier this year due to comparatively high mortgage rates but facing less competition for homes, which often allows them to make less risky offers that include protections like inspection and appraisal contingencies.

    Meanwhile, sellers are starting to move for the exits with the more enterprising among them willing to take aggressive price cuts to offload inventory.

    Finally, and as usual, the Fed is about 9 months behind the curve, and even though prices have now peaked and will decline sequentially for the foreseeable future, Powell & Co will be hiking rates for many months to come, confirming that the Fed will be tightening aggressively into the next housing crisis.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/17/2022 – 17:00

  • The Bill Gurley Chronicles: Part 3
    The Bill Gurley Chronicles: Part 3

    By Alex of the Macro Ops Substack

    What if there was a way to distill all the knowledge that someone’s written over the last 25 years into one, easy-to-read document? And what if that person was a famous venture capital investor known for betting big on companies like Uber, Snapchat, Twitter, Discord, Dropbox, Instagram, and Zillow (to name a few)?  Well, that’s what I’ve done with Bill Gurley’s blog Above The Crowd

    Gurley is a legendary venture capital investor and partner at Benchmark Capital. His blog oozes valuable insights on VC investing, valuations, growth, and marketplace businesses.  This document is past two to the one-stop-shop summary of every blog post Gurley’s ever written, part 1 can be found here and part 2 is here.

    May 29, 2009: Will Apple Make An Actual Television? Makes Sense To Me (Link)

    Summary: The thought of Apple (AAPL) making a physical TV seems wild. Yet according to Gurley, there are six reasons why this wasn’t such a farfetched concept. First, TV is a commodity business and AAPL excels at charging a premium on an otherwise commoditized product (i.e., MP3 players). Second, AAPL already makes large iPads that people love. Creating an even larger piece that AAPL fanboys would love to hang in their home makes sense. Third, TV will add an internet stack and AAPL might have to make their own hardware to support that. Fourth, It’s a huge market (Gurley estimates ~$2.5B in sales). Fifth, the TV would integrate with the Apple iOS, creating a seamless experience. Finally, AAPL has the retail footprint to sell its physical TVs. 

    Favorite Quote: For Apple, the fact that the TV business has become a commodity business will not be a roadblock. In PCs and MP3 players, they have proven they can charge a huge premium and extract enviable gross margins even where others have starved.”

    June 2, 2009: A Really Interesting Online Education Company In Korea: Megastudy (Link)

    Summary: Education feels like one of the last industries not hit with the capitalist bug. Maybe it’s the massive bureaucratic red tape or the incumbent teacher’s union. Regardless, Gurley showcases a South Korean company that’s turning to capitalism to give teachers better pay and students better education. The company is Megastudy. There are a few reasons Gurley loves the business: 

    • Subscription service for each course
    • Easily scalable for teachers as they teach once to as many students as they want
    • Teachers get ~23% of revenue from the course sales (this created $1M for teachers)
    • Incentives hinge on how engaging, productive and informative teachers are to students

    Gurley said he invested in a company trying to do something similar in the US, Grockit. The company was eventually bought by Kaplan in 2013. 

    Favorite Quote: Many here argue that U.S. teachers are underpaid, so in that sense it should be a huge welcome.  That said, I don’t think any teacher union in the U.S. would support the “eat what you kill” business model in use at Megastudy.”  

    June 8, 2009: Amazon’s AWS Strategy Becomes Clearer Every Day (Link)

    Summary: Amazon’s strategy when they entered the cloud business was simple: offer the lowest-cost cloud infrastructure and obsess about the customer. The second part is reminiscent of their retail business, and a meme from an old Jeff Bezos video. This comfortability in running a low-margin business allowed AMZN to move first in the space before IBM, MSFT, etc. Second, Gurley notes that no other cloud company listens to their customers like AMZN. It’s also fascinating to see how AMZN grew their cloud business: via rogue/small developers. While most saw this as a bug, insiders knew that’s exactly how you want to grow that business (i.e., bottoms-up growth). 

    Favorite Quote: Many in the IT world are quick to point out that its only small businesses and rouge developers in large organizations are using AWS.  This is exactly how these markets develop.  Amazon is simply selling to the innovators and early adopters in the market — the exact customers that are prescribed in Crossing the Chasm. These are the customers that others will follow, and by the time the laggards come into the market, the game will be over.”

    July 15, 2009: Bill Gurley On The “Free” Business Model (Link)

    Summary: The freemium business model is one where a company offers a product or service for free (or marginally zero cost) to its customers. On one hand, it’s a great way to disrupt an industry, and a “simple form of the innovator’s dilemma strategy.” Yet Mark Cuban and Malcolm Gladwell disagree with the “panacea” of the freemium model. The bottom line is that if you have highly differentiated content, you should charge for it. 

    Favorite Quote: “Basically, there is always a cost to delivery, even if it’s really low on a marginal basis, and in volume, it can get quite expensive on the cost side. He also, appropriately highlights that “Free” is not a panacea of a business model. It doesn’t always work.”

    July 27, 2009: I Do Not Believe That Zappos Was “Forced” To Sell (Link)

    Summary: The hot rumor in July of 2009 was that Zappos was forced to sell to Amazon by Sequoia Fund (an investor in Zappos). Gurley thinks that wasn’t true for three main reasons: 

    1. Tony (Zappos CEO) could have withheld his vote at the BOD level, or even dissented. 

    2. For the exact same reason, Tony could’ve withheld a positive shareholder vote from his common shares. 

    3. Tony could have informed Jeff Bezos that he does not want to sell. 

    Favorite Quote: Personally, I think it’s a great match and a great outcome for both companies.  They have a shared mission and very similar service-oriented customer brand.”

    July 29, 2009: Counterpoint To Calacanis On Yahoo-Microsoft Deal (Link)

    Summary: Obsessing over what competing businesses are doing is a sure way to destroy economic value. Nowhere is this best seen than when companies tried to mimic Google’s offensive search-based ad playbook. Gurley reasons that “laying chase” to an increasing returns business (like GOOGL ad network) is a waste of time. On the other hand, AMZN is a great example of a company recognizing the desire to clone, and doing the opposite. Instead of plunging into search and ad-based models, AMZN created AWS where they can control the pace of the game. 

    Favorite Quote: “For all their efforts, it’s unclear to me that Yahoo or Microsoft have created any positive equity value whatsoever based on their obsession with Google. I do not have access to the specific numbers, but from a cash flow perspective it would be easy to imagine that its a net negative for both of them.” 

    August 4, 2009: More IPO News, Ancestry.Com Files S-1 (Link)

    Summary: According to journalists, 2009 was a doom-and-gloom year for IPOs. Gurley’s take sounded much different. There were five IPOs during the year (up until this post) and all of them were doing well. At the same time, Ancestry.com filed their S-1. The company opened around $13/share in 2009. They were later bought by a PE firm for $32/share. Not a bad return for the pessimistic IPO market of 2009!

    Favorite Quote: I wonder how many successful IPO’s we need before people will stop saying the window is closed.  Looks perfectly open to me.”

    August 20, 2009: A Real Time Free Vs Fee Example: Rosetta Stone Vs. LiveMocha (Link)

    Summary: LiveMocha is a free online language learning website with an incredible community of learners and contributors. These contributors often create courses and open the site to new languages for free. Of course, LiveMocha isn’t guaranteed a seat at the profitability table anytime soon. The company doesn’t have a clear monetization strategy, and we don’t know how sticky the consumer brand is compared to the household name, Rosetta Stone. 

    Favorite Quote: If you read our previous thoughts on the free business model, we made one key point. Free is not necessarily a game plan, or a guaranteed model for success, but rather a market reality. Someone may be able to do what you do for free.  Does it guarantee they will be wildly successful? No, but it still may be a massive threat.  Microeconomics is not a zero-sum game. It’s perfectly reasonable for all the players in a market to not generate excessive (or any) profits.”

    August 24, 2009: What Is Really Happening To The Venture Capital Industry? (Link)

    Summary: The VC industry was under heavy pressure in 2009 due to underperformance and bloating AUMs. Gurley suggested the problem stemmed not from VC itself, but from its source of funds. VC firms receive most of their capital from pensions, endowments, and foundations. These are the largest pools of capital in the world. Over time, most of these pools of capital have increased their allocation to VC-based alternative investments. As such, the size of the VC industry ebbs and flows with how much money institutions decide to invest. 

    Favorite Quote: “There are many reasons to believe that a reduction in the size of the VC industry will be healthy for the industry overall and should lead to above average returns in the future. This is not simply because less supply of dollars will give VCs more pricing leverage. We have seen over and over again how excess capital can lead to crowded emerging markets with as many as 5-6 VC backed competitors. Reducing this to 2-3 players will result in less cutthroat behavior and much healthier returns for all companies and entrepreneurs in the market. Additionally, at a stabilized market size of well over $15B a year, there should be plenty of capital to fund the next Microsoft, Ebay, or Google.” 

    September 29, 2009: Want To Know More About The Future Of Internet TV?: Let’s Look To Korea (Link)

    Summary: Studying countries with faster technology adoption is a great way to spot potential trends. Korea was that country with over-the-top (OTT) Internet-based video streaming. The top three South Korean OTT providers passed 800K subs during the year with 90% broadband penetration rates. While that seems high, Gurley notes that estimates a few years back called for millions of subscribers. 

    Favorite Quote: “One way to have an advantage in “predicting” what will happen is to look at other countries that are further evolved in terms of broadband. The most obvious of these, with over 90% broadband penetration, is South Korea.”

    October 29, 2009: Google Redefines Disruption: The “Less Than Free” Business Model (Link)

    Summary: Google licensed its map data from two main companies: NavTeq and Tele Atlas. As such, the data-based companies had an economic advantage over Google. That was until Google deployed its own cars and created its own turn-by-turn GPS application. Then Google did the unthinkable, they gave it away for free inside its Google Android OS. In one move, Google went from price-taker to price-maker.

    Favorite Quote: “This is not just incredible defense. Google is apt to believe that the geographic taxonomy is a wonderful skeleton for a geo-based ad network.  If your maps are distributed everywhere on the Internet and in every mobile device, you control that framework.”

    January 5, 2010: Android Or IPhone? Wrong Question (Link)

    Summary: It was easy to think Apple and Android fought head-to-head. But that wasn’t true. The iPhone partnered with AT&T, demanded wild economics (upfront payments & revenue shares), and closed its user interface/ecosystem. Google made Android open-source and paid cellular carriers via advertising revenue shares. The result? iPhone captured the high-end of the market while Android flooded/dominated the lower-end where basic smartphones were 10x better than a consumer’s existing option. 

    Favorite Quote: This is why the two products do not compete head to head. With its super aggressive model, Android will be the choice of the masses, and with its sleek design and non-compromising price point, Apple will rule the high end.”

    February 8, 2010: Virtual Goods, Accounting, And The Power Of The “Rental” Model (Link)

    Summary: In the virtual economy, renting is a better business model than ownership for six main reasons: 

    1. Items become obsolete as a player levels up
    2. Users experience substantial inventory glut 
    3. Allows for more marketing opportunities when item needs to be replaced
    4. Price segmentation based on length of rental (i.e., 1 day, 7 day, or 30 day rental pricing)
    5. Creates recurring revenue business vs. one-time purchase
    6. Simpler accounting as there is no “durable” virtual good

    Favorite Quote: “American journalists and corporate executives have been slow to appreciate the beauty, brilliance, and consumer allure of the virtual goods business model.”

    April 28, 2010: When It Comes To Television Content, Affiliate Fees Make The World Go ‘Round (Link)

    Summary: If you want to understand the cable/media industry, follow the money, or in this case, the affiliate fees. Affiliate fees were a $32B business in 2010. ESPN is a good example. Content providers like ESPN “charge” $2.00/sub/month to cable companies for the right to stream ESPN content on a cable channel. Gurley notes that affiliate fees affect every aspect of the TV business, from operations to content production to financing/packaging. That there is so much money on the line ($32B) means it’ll be challenging for technology to disrupt the incumbent model. 

    Favorite Quote:  “The final and most significant reason is that this is a massive, massive business, and it is critically important to understand where the money flows (most people don’t). You can spend plenty of time talking about other issues, but when it comes to understanding the key factor at play in nearly every major business decision in television, you will find affiliate fees – all $32 billion of them.”

    July 8, 2010: Google Acquires ITA: Will Deeper Vertical Integration Lead To Higher Revenues? (Link)

    Summary: GOOGL can’t easily penetrate new verticals for two key reasons: competition and LTV-based assumptions. Existing verticals (like travel) offer a significantly better consumer experience, often due to community-based user-generated content (UGC) and hyper-specific datasets. GOOGL cannot easily mimic these advantages. Second, GOOGL’s CPC charge would switch from an “investment’ in Lifetime Customer Value (LTV) to a repeat transaction (or fee) in the eyes of company marketing departments. 

    Favorite Quote: “If you are searching for a book or an author you go to Amazon, or at the very least you do a search like “Man in Full Amazon” so that you go directly to the page you want on Amazon. The same is true for hotels with TripAdvisor and for restaurants with OpenTable. These sites offer deeper and richer experiences for a vertical searcher precisely because they incorporate deep meta-data, faceted search, transaction connectivity, and typically a form of community or UGC (user generated content).”

    July 15, 2010: On Google, Growth, Pricing Power, And Valuation Multiples (Link)

    Summary: GOOGL traded at ~18x 2010 earnings at the time of writing. Why were they so cheap? It wasn’t competitive positioning, as nobody could successfully dethrone GOOGL’s search engine dominance. And it wasn’t lack of growth as GOOGL was generating 20%+ top-line revenue growth. According to Gurley, GOOGL traded at a discount because its business model was “too good.” It grew reached $10B 3x as quickly as GOOGL. However, GOOGL didn’t possess MSFT’s massive embedded pricing power, so Gurley saw little operating leverage inside GOOGL’s business. 

    Favorite Quote: With its ad optimization engine so amazingly efficient, Google has no obvious pricing power against its current installed base. There is simply no way to “double” the amount of spend from each customer, much less a way to take it up 20X. Additionally, they have not yet identified a product that would represent Google’s version of Microsoft Office in terms of revenue leverage.” 

    November 15, 2010: Silicon Valley’s IPO Anxiety (Link)

    Summary: Anxiety about going public is a self-fulfilling prophecy that leads to fewer IPOs, thus fewer new “merchandise” for investors to purchase. Gurley notes that in 2010 most IPOs came outside of Silicon Valley, reaffirming the self-fulfilling prophecy. Sure, Sarbanes-Oxly makes it more expensive to go public. And yes, there are more short-term oriented investors in public markets. However, companies assume those risks for the potential to capture sales/earnings multiples they’d never see if they stayed private. 

    Favorite Quote: “To this point, and perhaps ironically to some, most of the people I know that work in high tech mutual funds and hedge funds would like to see more IPOs not less. They are tired of trading the same large technology names that are showing limited equity returns over the past 10 years, and have very low growth opportunities/ambitions.”

    March 24, 2011: The Freight Train That Is Android (Link)

    Summary: Android and Chrome aren’t business “products”, but a strategy of expanding GOOGL’s existing economic moat. GOOGL removes the layer between itself and its end-user by offering free (or less-than-free) software products (like OS, Search Engines, and Maps). The Search Engine funds this expensive “scorched-Earth” moat expansion policy via its Advertising business (its castle). In essence, GOOGL wants all the market share, but none of the economics. How can one compete against that defensive model? It’s simple, you can’t. 

    Favorite Quote: “This is the part that amazes me the most. I don’t know if a large organized industry has ever faced this fierce a form of competition – someone who is not trying to “win” in the classic sense. They want market share, but they don’t need economics. Imagine if Ford were faced with GM paying people to take Chevrolets? How many would they be able to sell? What if you received $0.10 for every free Pepsi you consumed? Would you still pay $1.50 for a Coke?”

    May 24, 2011: All Revenue Is Not Created Equal: The Keys To The 10X Revenue Club (Link)

    Summary: Only a select few companies can (and should) trade at 10x Price/Sales. The reason is that revenue (and revenue growth) isn’t created equally. There are good and bad flavors of growth. Gurley reveals the ten most important criteria for Revenue Growth Quality by asking 10 questions: 

    1. Does the business have a competitive advantage (Buffett’s “moat”)?
    2. Does the business possess network effects? 
    3. How predictable/visible is the company’s revenues? 
    4. Are there high or low switching costs? 
    5. Is this a high or low gross margin business? 
    6. Does the business generate positive marginal profitability?
    7. How concentrated is the company’s revenues? 
    8. Does the company depend on 1-3 key partners? 
    9. Does the business grow via advertising or organic word-of-mouth? 
    10. How fast is the company growing revenue? 

    This is not an exhaustive list, but it’s a great starting point in determining if a business has what it takes to (potentially) trade at 10x Price/Sales. 

    Favorite Quote: What drives true equity value? Those of us with a fondness for finance will argue until we are blue in the face that discounted cash flows (DCF) are the true drivers of value for any financial asset, companies included. The problem is that it is nearly impossible to predict with any accuracy what the long-term cash flows are for a given company; especially a company that is young or that might be using an innovative and new business model.” 

    September 14, 2011: On IPOs: If You Are Going To File, Make Sure You Price (Link)

    Summary: Companies that file an S-1, only to pull the filing, sow seeds of doubt amongst investors, bankers, and internal employees. Pulling an IPO filing begs many questions, like “Was their valuation too high?” or “Maybe there isn’t enough demand for the stock?” Or even “I wonder if the company’s growth is slowing down and they don’t want to publish those figures?” Regardless of the reason, companies that file S-1s should have the courage to see it through. 

    Favorite Quote: “An open IPO window attracts two types of companies – those that should go public, and those that “need” to go public for capital reasons. Portions of the “need” group will always fail to find supporters, and therefore you should not view delays and withdrawals as signs of a weak IPO market.” 

    September 18, 2011: Understanding Why Netflix Changed Pricing (Link)

    Summary: Hollywood forced Netflix to change its pricing. Netflix’s original business model formed around the 1908 “First Sale Doctrine” Supreme Court Ruling. The ruling allowed NFLX (or anyone) to rent a DVD the same day of purchase. In this model. NFLX has relatively fixed costs and unlimited “streaming” rights. However, digital is the opposite model. Hollywood demanded an affiliate fee-like pricing model, where NFLX paid Hollywood per subscriber per month for the right to digitally stream its content. Digital now became a fixed rights distribution with unlimited potential costs. NFLX had to increase prices to make its digital model work. 

    Favorite Quote: Netflix could not afford to pay for digital content for someone who wasn’t watching it. This forced the separation, so that the digital business model would exist on it’s own free and clear. Could Netflix have simply paid the digital fee for all its customers (those that watched and not)? One has to believe they modeled this scenario, and it looked worse financially (implied severe gross margin erosion) than the model they chose.”

    November 15, 2011: You Don’t Have To Tweet To Twitter (Link)

    Summary: Twitter doesn’t compete with Facebook or other social media platforms. Instead, it competes with other news sources, like print/TV media, blogs, and other websites where users publish information. The great thing about Twitter, too, is that you don’t have to tweet to recognize its value. Users get tremendous value from following other people without the need for others to follow them. Plus, Twitter’s strong-form network effects grow with each new user on the platform as more users amplifies any one person’s potential to share information at scale. 

    Favorite Quote: Much like Google, Twitter points out to the world. It’s a “discovery engine” and an “information utility” rolled into one. With Twitter, you get news faster, you see updates from your favorite artists, you hear directly from key politicians, and gain insights from influencers in a wide variety of specializations. Just as Facebook is symmetric in terms of its poster-reader relationship, Twitter is highly asymmetric. The majority of the tweets on Twitter are posted by a small sub-set of the users.”

    Years: 2012 – 2015

    January 5, 2012: Thinking About Diets And Other Complex Matters (Link)

    Summary: Whether it’s diets, stock prices, or weather changes, humans love finding patterns for complex matters. If something is too complex for our feeble human brain to comprehend, fear not! We simply create a causation or a pattern so that our minds can somehow understand it. The lesson? Watch out for those that spew “certainty”, those that avoid fresh perspectives or people who won’t / can’t change their minds. 

    Favorite Quote: When it comes to not fully understood complex systems, it is easy to get things wrong. In fact, its easy for everyone to get them wrong. Don’t fear the new idea or the fresh perspective, and don’t believe something just because everyone else does. But watch out for the preacher with certainty — the ones that are spewing hellfire and brimstone. They are the ones most certainly to be wrong.”

    February 1, 2012: Why Facebook Clearly Belongs In The 10X Revenue Club (Link)

    Summary: This was one of my favorite Gurley posts as we became a fly on the wall, listening to how Gurley analyzed Facebook (FB) at the time of IPO. Gurley runs FB through his 10x Revenue Club Criterion and determines that the company firmly belongs as a card-carrying member. Gurley ended up valuing FB around $96B market cap. As of this writing, it trades at $540B. 

    Favorite Quote: “With all the hype, assume a 12x multiple on the $6, and you end up right at $72B. You can double-check this with earnings. As operating margin is stable, 60% growth would result in $1.6B in after-tax earnings. At $72B, this is a 45 PE ratio for a company growing at 60%. At a 60 PE, you would have a $96B market capitalization.”

    February 23, 2012: Why Dropbox Is A Major Disruption (Link)

    Summary: Gurley saw Dropbox (DBX) as a major disrupter because it took something highly complex (file synchronization) and made it “brain dead simple.” However, it’s not in making something formerly complex, simple. It’s the fact that DBX now eliminates dependence on specific computer hardware and software. Who cares if you use iMac or Windows? And who cares if you lose your laptop or phone? If everything’s stored on DBX, you haven’t lost anything. DBX, in essence, commoditized computer hardware and software. 

    Favorite Quote: Once you begin using Dropbox, you become more and more indifferent to the hardware you are using, as well as the operating system on that device. Dropbox commoditizes your devices and their OS, by being your “state” system in the sky.” 

    April 19, 2012: My Life With Bing (Link)

    Summary: Gurley switched his default browser from Google to Bing for two months. His findings were interesting. He noticed that on “core search” functions, Bing was on-par with Google. However, the biggest difference Gurley noticed was how conditioned he was to Google’s UI/UX. Moreover, he noticed how frustrating it was trying to navigate (read: learn) a new UI/UX in Bing. In other words, customer lock-in doesn’t have to come from product superiority or barriers to entry. It can come from familiarity with navigation and the power of personal routines. 

    Favorite Quote: At the end of the day, for me, my user “lock-in” is associated not with the quality of Google results, but rather with the understanding of the UI features and levers.  More like a traditional software application.”

    April 27, 2012: Intuit To Acquire Demandforce For $424MM (Link)

    Summary: Demandforce is a case study on two important company-building topics: focus and local networks. Gurley frequently mentioned that Demandforce flew under-the-radar from the media, and instead focused all their efforts on their customers and product. Additionally, Demandforce operated in the Local Internet world of small business. Demandforce gave local businesses access to enterprise-level SaaS “front office” tools. In effect, the company leveraged the power of the Internet with the pervasiveness of smartphones to service a $125B+ industry.

    Favorite Quote: “In a day and age of social media, where many companies project a persona much larger than reality, Demandforce chose instead to focus on its customers and its products. We never even announced Benchmark’s funding of the company, which I believe is unprecedented. The Demandforce team always felt that the attention should be focused on the customer rather than the company.”

    June 25, 2012: Social-Mobile-LOCAL: “Local” Will Be The Biggest Of The Three (Link)

    Summary: Local is a massive and exciting market opportunity for startups to build the next billion-dollar business. There are a few reasons for this belief. First, smartphones have given startups access to billions of people’s locations, allowing them to build hyper-local products and services (think Nextdoor, etc.). Internet adoption rates also remain historically underpenetrated for local small businesses. Finally, local graphs incentivize startups to go deep into specific verticals (like travel, accounting solutions, table reservation), insulating itself from larger incumbents like Google.

    Favorite Quote: But the really exciting part is that we are still really early in this process of transformation away from listing/directory advertising to a local Internet.  By way of comparison, in the fourth quarter of 2011, Southwest Airlines reported that 86% of its revenue was booked online.  By comparison, only 12% of US restaurant reservations are booked online. Only 15% of dentists are connected to customers through services like DemandForce.  Only 3% of takeout orders are processed through online offerings like GrubHub. And less than 1% of realtors are premier agents on Zillow.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/17/2022 – 16:30

  • Rush Limbaugh's Palm Beach Mansion Listed For $175 Million
    Rush Limbaugh’s Palm Beach Mansion Listed For $175 Million

    Late conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh’s mansion on Palm Beach’s North Ocean Boulevard is for sale, and the asking price is between $150 million to $175 million, according to WSJ sources. 

    The 2.7-acre waterfront property features a 24,000 square feet main house with 250 feet of ocean frontage. Limbaugh purchased the property right before the DotCom bubble in 1998 for $3.9 million. 

    Property records show his widow, Kathryn Adams Limbaugh, is on the trust that owns the property. 

    Ze’ev Chafet, a writer who wrote Limbaugh’s biography “An Army of One,” detailed the mansion was “largely decorated by Limbaugh himself, it reflects the things and places he has seen and admired.” 

    Chafet wrote the mansion had a salon invoking Versailles and a massive chandelier in the dining room that was a replica of the one in New York’s Plaza Hotel. He said the house was modeled after the Presidential Suite of the Hotel George V in Paris. 

    WSJ notes the main house is in “good condition,” though real-estate agents said buyers are pursuing more contemporary architectural styles and would consider ripping down the house if bought. 

    Even at $150 million, Limbaugh’s mansion would be one of the most expensive residential properties ever sold in Palm Beach, where the luxury real estate market exploded post-COVID. Last month, Oracle Corp. co-founder Larry Ellison dropped a record $173 million on a 62,000-square feet Mediterranean-style mansion near Palm Beach. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/17/2022 – 16:00

  • What Is Adam Schiff Hiding?
    What Is Adam Schiff Hiding?

    Authored by Julie Kelly via AmGreatness.com,

    Schiff tucked an amendment into the National Defense Authorization Act that would prohibit any evidence collected in violation of the Posse Comitatus Act from being used in investigations. Why?

    Jeffrey Rosen had a secret on January 6, 2021.

    The then-acting attorney general—Rosen was appointed on December 24, 2020 to replace departing Attorney General William Barr—had assembled a team of elite and highly skilled government agents at Quantico, a nexus point between the FBI and U.S. military, the weekend before Congress met to certify the results of the 2020 presidential election. At the same time he was rejecting President Donald Trump’s last-minute appeals to investigate election fraud, Rosen was managing a hush-hush operation in advance of planned rallies and protests in Washington on January 6.

    “Rosen made a unilateral decision to take the preparatory steps to deploy Justice Department and so-called ‘national’ forces,” Newsweek reporter William M. Arkin disclosed in a bombshell report earlier this year. “There was no formal request from the U.S. Capitol Police, the Secret Service, or the Metropolitan Police Department—in fact, no external request from any agency. The leadership in Justice and the FBI anticipated the worst and decided to act independently, the special operations forces lurking behind the scenes.”

    Those assets, according to Arkin, included “commandos” with shoot-to-kill authority. And among them were members of the military. 

    “The presence of these extraordinary forces under the control of the Attorney General—and mostly operating under contingency plans that Congress and the U.S. Capitol Police were not privy to—added an additional layer of highly armed responders,” Arkin writes. “The role that the military played in this highly classified operation is still unknown, though FBI sources tell Newsweek that military operators seconded to the FBI, and those on alert as part of the National Mission Force, were present in the metropolitan area.”

    Little else is known about Rosen’s secret mission. His testimony to the House Oversight Committee in May 2021 was just as obscure. Rosen, who publicly bragged to the January 6 select committee about his attempts to deter Team Trump from pursuing vote fraud days before the Capitol protest, said the FBI opened a multi-agency operation center, which included the Department of Defense, at FBI headquarters on January 5. “Each of these federal agencies supplied personnel to staff the [center] 24/7 beginning on January 5 and 6, and continuing for a period thereafter,” he said.

    To avoid “interfering” in ongoing investigations, Rosen then declined to answer any questions from lawmakers at the time.

    But if the military engaged in any civilian law enforcement activity, including surveillance or intelligence collection, before or during January 6, it would represent an egregious violation of the military’s code of conduct and federal law. Under the Posse Comitatus Act, military personnel cannot be used as local cops or investigators: “Whoever, except in cases and under circumstances expressly authorized by the Constitution or Act of Congress, willfully uses any part of the Army, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the Air Force, or the Space Force as a posse comitatus or otherwise to execute the laws shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than two years, or both.” (Certain exclusions, such as the president’s invocation of the Insurrection Act and any use of the National Guard, apply.)

    The law is both vague and specific at the same time—which brings us to Representative Adam Schiff (D-Calif.). Irrefutably the least trustworthy member of Congress, Schiff tucked an amendment into the massive National Defense Authorization Act that would prohibit any evidence collected in violation of the Posse Comitatus Act from being used in a number of proceedings, including criminal trials and congressional investigations.

    The amendment’s timing, like everything else related to the infamous Russian collusion huckster, evidence forger, and nude photo seeker (to name a few of Schiff’s special talents), is highly suspect. Why would Schiff need to outlaw evidence collected unlawfully? Why is Schiff relying on this relatively arcane statute passed during Reconstruction that is rarely, if ever, enforced? 

    “No one has ever been convicted of violating PCA to my knowledge,” Dr. Jeffrey Addicott, a 20-year member of the Judge Advocate General’s Corps and director of the Warrior Defense Project at St. Mary’s College, told American Greatness last week.

    What is Adam Schiff, on behalf of the Biden regime and Trump foes in the U.S. military, including Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley, trying to hide?

    It is not a coincidence that Schiff introduced the amendment just a few months before a predicted Republican landslide in November, which will give control of Congress back to the GOP. House Minority Leader and presumptive Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy is planning to conduct multiple investigations into the Biden regime next year including of the deadly and distrastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan; the Daily Caller reported this week that Republican lawmakers are “flooding the Biden administration with ‘hundreds of preservation notices’ asking that relevant documents be preserved.”

    But one can easily see how Schiff’s amendment could be used as legislative cover to prevent production of any materials from Biden’s Department of Defense. After all, according to a 2018 congressional analysis of Posse Comitatus, “compliance [of the act] is ordinarily the result of military self-restraint.” So, too, is enforcement: “The act is a criminal statute under which there has been but a handful of known prosecutions,” the same report explained.

    This is the sort of vehicle that Democrats know how to use and exploit for political advantage. If interpretation and enforcement is totally arbitrary, who decides? Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin? The Justice Department? Biden’s White House lawyers? 

    Imagine how Democrats could conceal the use of military personnel related to the events of January 6. Congressional Republicans send a request to Austin seeking all records, documents, and communications pertaining to the military’s involvement before and during the Capitol protest. Austin replies that he has determined the military—under control of President Trump at the time, no less—violated Posse Comitatus and therefore the requested materials cannot be produced under authority of the Schiff amendment.

    Republicans can howl and scream but they have no legal remedy. Austin won’t investigate and Attorney General Merrick Garland won’t prosecute.

    This scenario could be repeated for every Republican inquiry into Biden’s Defense Department. Does anyone really think this regime will hand over information to GOP investigators and committees without pulling every trick in the book, starting with Schiff’s amendment?

    On Thursday afternoon, the House narrowly passed Schiff’s amendment by a vote of 215-213; every Republican and two Democrats voted no. (House Speaker Nancy Pelosi came to the floor to vote in a rare move.) Passage in the Senate is uncertain.

    If his amendment fails to advance, Schiff nonetheless has done Republicans a tremendous favor; he’s tipped off the GOP that there’s plenty of digging to be done at the Department of Defense, where a trove of scandals awaits political sunshine.

    Republicans would be wise to take his cue—and start with January 6.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/17/2022 – 15:30

  • Salesforce Is Planning To Sublet Its Flagship San Francisco Office Space
    Salesforce Is Planning To Sublet Its Flagship San Francisco Office Space

    Salesforce looks like it is becoming the latest company to abandon the hellscape that has become San Francisco. The company plans to list its 350,000 square foot office at 50 Fremont St. for sale, a new report by the San Francisco Chronicle says

    It marks the third cut to the company’s presence in the Bay Area over the last 18 months. The company subleases about 40% of the building at present. 

    The company told The Chronicle: “Salesforce offices are an important part of our culture, and how we use them has evolved. We are subleasing floors in Salesforce West to make the most efficient use of our real estate footprint. We will maintain ownership of the building and can reoccupy the space as needed over time. As the largest private employer in San Francisco, we are deeply committed to the city and are actively welcoming employees back to Salesforce Tower.”

    Meanwhile CEO Marc Benioff has said that return to “office mandates are never going to work” coming out of the pandemic. Instead, the company has focused on working remotely. 

     

    We absolutely do not blame Salesforce, nor do we blame companies like Walgreens, who are doing their best to reduce their exposure to the city. Back in March we asked the question of what would happen if San Francisco simply didn’t recover:

    The streets are dirty. Homeless encampments, trash, and excrement can be found all over. Car break-ins are so frequent that it has basically become a non-government-imposed tax for people who come here. Of course, some areas are much worse than others, but almost all areas of the city suffer from this decay, and it is appalling.

    In June, we wrote about the how the city’s Tenderloin district has become a criminal order. Drug dealers stake out their turf and sell in broad daylight, while the immigrant families in the five-story, pre-war apartment buildings shepherd their kids to school, trying to maintain as normal an existence as they can.

    “If you happen to be walking through the Tenderloin and you feel unsafe, imagine what it feels like to live there,” said Joel Engardio, head of Stop Crime SF, a civilian public safety group. “The Tenderloin has one of the largest percentages of children in the city. It’s untenable, inexcusable to ask them to confront this hellscape.” 

    “The Tenderloin is out of control,” said Tom Ostly, a former San Francisco prosecutor who used to work there and lives nearby. “It has never been worse than it is now.”

    Nancy Tung, a prosecutor who once handled drug enforcement in San Francisco, called it “ground zero for human misery.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/17/2022 – 15:00

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Today’s News 17th July 2022

  • Escobar: In Eurasia, The War Of Economic Corridors Is In Full Swing
    Escobar: In Eurasia, The War Of Economic Corridors Is In Full Swing

    Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Cradle,

    Mega Eurasian organizations and their respective projects are now converging at record speed, with one global pole way ahead of the other.

    The War of Economic Corridors is now proceeding full speed ahead, with the game-changing first cargo flow of goods from Russia to India via the International North South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) already in effect.

    Very few, both in the east and west, are aware of how this actually has long been in the making: the Russia-Iran-India agreement for implementing a shorter and cheaper Eurasian trade route via the Caspian Sea (compared to the Suez Canal), was first signed in 2000, in the pre-9/11 era.

    The INSTC in full operational mode signals a powerful hallmark of Eurasian integration – alongside the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and last but not least, what I described as “Pipelineistan” two decades ago.

    Caspian is key

    Let’s have a first look on how these vectors are interacting.

    The genesis of the current acceleration lies in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to Ashgabat, Turkmenistan’s capital, for the 6th Caspian Summit. This event not only brought the evolving Russia-Iran strategic partnership to a deeper level, but crucially, all five Caspian Sea littoral states agreed that no NATO warships or bases will be allowed on site.

    That essentially configures the Caspian as a virtual Russian lake, and in a minor sense, Iranian – without compromising the interests of the three “stans,” Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. For all practical purposes, Moscow has tightened its grip on Central Asia a notch.

    As the Caspian Sea is connected to the Black Sea by canals off the Volga built by the former USSR, Moscow can always count on a reserve navy of small vessels – invariably equipped with powerful missiles – that may be transferred to the Black Sea in no time if necessary.

    Stronger trade and financial links with Iran now proceed in tandem with binding the three “stans” to the Russian matrix. Gas-rich republic Turkmenistan for its part has been historically idiosyncratic – apart from committing most of its exports to China.

    Under an arguably more pragmatic young new leader, President Serdar Berdimuhamedow, Ashgabat may eventually opt to become a member of the SCO and/or the EAEU.

    Caspian littoral state Azerbaijan on the other hand presents a complex case: an oil and gas producer eyed by the European Union (EU) to become an alternative energy supplier to Russia – although this is not happening anytime soon.

    The West Asia connection

    Iran’s foreign policy under President Ebrahim Raisi is clearly on a Eurasian and Global South trajectory. Tehran will be formally incorporated into the SCO as a full member in the upcoming summit in Samarkand in September, while its formal application to join the BRICS has been filed.

    Purnima Anand, head of the BRICS International Forum, has stated that Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt are also very much keen on joining BRICS. Should that happen, by 2024 we could be on our way to a powerful West Asia, North Africa hub firmly installed inside one of the key institutions of the multipolar world.

    As Putin heads to Tehran next week for trilateral Russia, Iran, Turkey talks, ostensibly about Syria, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is bound to bring up the subject of BRICS.

    Tehran is operating on two parallel vectors. In the event the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is revived – a quite dim possibility as it stands, considering the latest shenanigans in Vienna and Doha – that would represent a tactical victory. Yet moving towards Eurasia is on a whole new strategic level.

    In the INSTC framework, Iran will make maximum good use of the geostrategically crucial port of Bandar Abbas – straddling the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, at the crossroads of Asia, Africa and the Indian subcontinent.

    Yet as much as it may be portrayed as a major diplomatic victory, it’s clear that Tehran will not be able to make full use of BRICS membership if western – especially US – sanctions are not totally lifted.

    Pipelines and the “stans”

    A compelling argument can be made that Russia and China might eventually fill the western technology void in the Iranian development process. But there’s a lot more that platforms such as the INSTC, the EAEU and even BRICS can accomplish.

    Across “Pipelineistan,” the War of Economic Corridors gets even more complex. Western propaganda simply cannot admit that Azerbaijan, Algeria, Libya, Russia’s allies at OPEC, and even Kazakhstan are not exactly keen on increasing their oil production to help Europe.

    Kazakhstan is a tricky case: it is the largest oil producer in Central Asia and set to be a major natural gas supplier, right after Russia and Turkmenistan. More than 250 oil and gas fields are operated in Kazakhstan by 104 companies, including western energy giants such as Chevron, Total, ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell.

    While exports of oil, natural gas and petroleum products comprise 57 percent of Kazakhstan’s exports, natural gas is responsible for 85 percent of Turkmenistan’s budget (with 80 percent of exports committed to China). Interestingly, Galkynysh is the second largest gas field on the planet.

    Compared to the other “stans,” Azerbaijan is a relatively minor producer (despite oil accounting for 86 percent of its total exports) and basically a transit nation. Baku’s super-wealth aspirations center on the Southern Gas Corridor, which includes no less than three pipelines: Baku-Tblisi-Erzurum (BTE); the Turkish-driven Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP); and the Trans-Adriatic (TAP).

    The problem with this acronym festival – BTE, TANAP, TAP – is that they all need massive foreign investment to increase capacity, which the EU sorely lacks because every single euro is committed by unelected Brussels Eurocrats to “support” the black hole that is Ukraine. The same financial woes apply to a possible Trans-Caspian Pipeline which would further link to both TANAP and TAP.

    In the War of Economic Corridors – the “Pipelineistan” chapter – a crucial aspect is that most Kazakh oil exports to the EU go through Russia, via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). As an alternative, the Europeans are mulling on a still fuzzy Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, also known as the Middle Corridor (Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey). They actively discussed it in Brussels last month.

    The bottom line is that Russia remains in full control of the Eurasia pipeline chessboard (and we’re not even talking about the Gazprom-operated pipelines Power of Siberia 1 and 2 leading to China).

    Gazprom executives know all too well that a fast increase of energy exports to the EU is out of the question. They also factor the Tehran Convention – that helps prevent and control pollution and maintain the environmental integrity of the Caspian Sea, signed by all five littoral members.

    Breaking BRI in Russia

    China, for its part, is confident that one of its prime strategic nightmares may eventually disappear. The notorious “escape from Malacca” is bound to materialize, in cooperation with Russia, via the Northern Sea Route, which will shorten the trade and connectivity corridor from East Asia to Northern Europe from 11,200 nautical miles to only 6,500 nautical miles. Call it the polar twin of the INSTC.

    This also explains why Russia has been busy building a vast array of state-of-the-art icebreakers.

    So here we have an interconnection of New Silk Roads (the INSTC proceeds in parallel with BRI and the EAEU), Pipelineistan, and the Northern Sea Route on the way to turn western trade domination completely upside down.

    Of course, the Chinese have had it planned for quite a while. The first White Paper on China’s Arctic policy, in January 2018, already showed how Beijing is aiming, “jointly with other states” (that means Russia), to implement sea trade routes in the Arctic within the framework of the Polar Silk Road.

    And like clockwork, Putin subsequently confirmed that the Northern Sea Route should interact and complement the Chinese Maritime Silk Road.

    Russia-China Economic cooperation is evolving on so many complex, convergent levels that just to keep track of it all is a dizzying experience.

    A more detailed analysis will reveal some of the finer points, for instance how BRI and SCO interact, and how BRI projects will have to adapt to the heady consequences of Moscow’s Operation Z in Ukraine, with more emphasis being placed on developing Central and West Asian corridors.

    It’s always crucial to consider that one of Washington’s key strategic objectives in the relentless hybrid war against Russia was always to break BRI corridors that crisscross Russian territory.

    As it stands, it’s important to realize that dozens of BRI projects in industry and investment and cross-border inter-regional cooperation will end up consolidating the Russian concept of the Greater Eurasia Partnership – which essentially revolves around establishing multilateral cooperation with a vast range of nations belonging to organizations such as the EAEU, the SCO, BRICS and ASEAN.

    Welcome to the new Eurasian mantra: Make Economic Corridors, Not War.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/16/2022 – 23:30

  • Satellite Imagery Shows Global Crop Declines – Except For Russia And China
    Satellite Imagery Shows Global Crop Declines – Except For Russia And China

    Infrared satellite imagery designed to measure moisture levels and the health of farmlands suggests that staple crops such as wheat are in poor condition and in sharp decline among major exporters including the Ukraine, the US and India.  Two countries do have bumper crops so far though; namely Russia and China.  

    It is hard to say which governments and institutions monitor this data, but a few months ago a multitude of political leaders and global banks issued simultaneous warnings of a “global food shortage” and an impending crisis.  Such institutions included the IMF, World Bank, the BIS and even the White House.  So far, a perfect storm of stagflation, supply chain disruptions and poor weather conditions have combined to disrupt food production around the world. 

    Price inflation due to central bank stimulus measures has been enough to do incredible damage to the many national economies, but a single bad year for crops on top of this could spell disaster.  

    Russia and China, on the other hand, are enjoying a strategic advantage.  As we entered spring of this year, the mainstream media heralded the end of the Russian economy and the swift collapse of their war efforts in Ukraine.  Today, Russia is selling more oil and exporting more commodities than ever before, and both Russia and China now have the most healthy staple crops in the world.  It’s almost as if the public in the west has been deliberately misled about our economic strength.   

    Sadly, many people in the west have forgotten the importance of commodities, industry and energy in terms of geopolitical leverage.  Without dominance of these three arenas there is no chance for a nation or group of nations to dictate terms to a country that has such advantages.  Economic warfare is about independent production and adaptability; these are two things the US and Europe do not have right now.  

    With declines in crop exports, food prices will rise even further this year and there is also the possibility that Russia could cut off the EU and other nations from access to their agricultural market.  Though the Kremlin says this will not happen, given the right trigger event it remains a legitimate threat.  Already this month Europe is on the edge of an economic cliff as they wait to see if the Russian “maintenance shutdown” of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline is actually temporary, or the beginning of a full bore energy crisis that will last for years.          

    In other words, the temptation for the eastern nations to use food as a weapon against NATO countries will be just as high on their list as oil and gas.  With food and energy stability in doubt there is also a considerable danger of civil unrest.  Third world nations are likely to see the worst of the shortages, but price inflation in necessities is here to stay for first world countries as well.  And along with that comes all the associated economic problems, including rising crime, rising unemployment and rising poverty. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/16/2022 – 23:00

  • Catholic Voters Sour On Biden, Split Over Midterms
    Catholic Voters Sour On Biden, Split Over Midterms

    Authored by Susan Crabtree via RealClear Opinion Research,

    Neither Republicans nor Democrats have a clear edge with Catholic voters nearly four months before the pivotal midterm elections that will determine control of Congress and how much of President Biden’s agenda will get passed in the next two years, according to an in-depth new survey of American Catholics.

    (David Proeber/The Pantagraph via AP)

    Overall, likely voters identifying themselves as Catholic are split nearly evenly in their preference for Congress: 44% indicated support for the Republican candidate in their district, while 43% support the Democrat – with a significant bloc of 13% undecided.

    Despite this political divide, a key indicator of voter concern – whether the country is on the right or wrong track – should set off alarm bells for the Biden administration and Democrats, who control both chambers of Congress.

    Some 59% of all Catholics said the country is on the wrong track, including 68% of white Catholics and 45% of Latino Catholics, compared to 24% who thought it’s headed in the right direction.

    While those figures demonstrate widespread pessimism among Catholics, the rest of the country is even more discouraged about the country’s path forward. The RealClearPolitics average of most recent polls shows an overwhelming 75.1% of voters believe the country is off-course, compared to just 18% who say it’s on target.

    These are among the findings in the latest survey of Catholic voter mood by RealClear Opinion Research in partnership with Catholic-themed television network EWTN. The national survey of 1,757 Catholic likely voters is the first of It was conducted online in English and Spanish from June 15-23, immediately before the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, ruling that there is no longer a federal constitutional right to an abortion.

    The dramatic difference of opinion within the broader group of all voters identifying as Catholic demonstrates how nuanced and diverse this voting group has become in recent years. Modern Catholics comprise several subgroups representing generational, cultural, and ethnic differences that all vote differently but generally place a high value on their faith and religion when making political decisions.

    Some 68% of all Catholics said their faith is important when considering their vote for Congress this year, compared to 32% who said it isn’t important. And an overwhelming 82% said a candidate’s support for religious freedom would make them more likely to vote for them, compared to just 10% who said it would make them less likely to vote for those politicians.

    Overall, Catholic voters today are a far cry from the Democratic voting bloc that helped propel John F. Kennedy, the first and only Roman Catholic to serve as president, to the White House in 1960. In fact, the political ideology of the 1,757 surveyed skews more conservative or lean conservative than liberal or lean liberal by a margin of 40% to 34%. More voters identified as Democrat (42%) than Republican (38%), but 20% considered themselves independent or unaffiliated with either party.

    Despite Catholic voters’ split political affiliations, the group remains crucial because there are so many of them. More than one in five voters identifies as Catholic, although they are difficult to typecast, according to John Della Volpe, director of the RealClear survey.

    This may explain the lack of clear advantage for either party ahead of the midterms, but it doesn’t mean Catholics as a whole don’t have strong feelings about political issues right now.

    The RealClear Opinion/EWTN poll found that President Biden has lost significant ground with Catholics since his election. In 2020, Biden carried the Catholic vote by five percentage points, with 52% of all Catholic voters casting their ballots for Biden and 47% for Trump, according to Edison exit poll data.

    Now just 47% of Catholics approve of Biden’s job performance, while 53% disapprove, the survey found. Still, Biden’s approval rating among all Catholics remains nearly ten points higher than among all voters. The most recent RCP average of voter opinion polls pegs the president’s approval at a new low of 37.8%, with 56.6% disapproving.

    Trump’s favorability rating among all Catholic voters was equally split: 49% of voters surveyed held a favorable view of the 45th president while 49% held an unfavorable one.

    The poll also shows a big difference in how white and non-white Catholic voters view Biden. Despite reports that Republicans are making inroads with Latino voters, Biden’s approval rating among Latino Catholics stands at an impressive 59%. Among white Catholics, it’s a dismal 36%.

    On the pressing issue of inflation, Catholic voters as a whole have little hope in Biden’s ability to relieve the economic pain. A whopping 89% said their finances had been significantly impacted or affected to some degree by the rising cost of gas and other goods, and 57% said they didn’t have much or any confidence that the Biden administration can significantly reduce inflation in the next year.

    Still, Catholic voters are generally split on what’s most to blame – 36% say Biden and his policies, and 33% say the war in Ukraine and the global slowdown, while 25% said both were equally at fault.

    On the fierce national policy debate on abortion, the survey produced some seemingly conflicting results. A plurality of all Catholics favored upholding Roe v. Wade by a 47%-42% margin, with little or no gender gap. Both men and women were narrowly opposed to overturning the landmark 1973 ruling.

    Unsurprisingly, party affiliation was the most influential factor in whether respondents favored or opposed overturning the landmark abortion case. Republicans strongly supported reversing the decision by a margin of 52%-36%, while Democrats strongly opposed doing so by a 58%-33% margin.

    But a high percentage of Catholics, 65%-23%, also acknowledged that abortion conflicts with Catholic teaching. By a 68%-23% margin, these voters also backed laws requiring parental consent for minors before undergoing an abortion.

    The survey also showed that the vast majority of Catholics oppose unfettered access to abortion. In the last two years, though, slightly more of these voters have shifted away from the church’s strict opposition to abortion.

    Just 18% of those surveyed said abortion should be available to a woman at any point during her pregnancy, up from 15% in 2020, while 32% said abortion should be allowed only in cases of rape, incest, or to save the life of the woman, and 9% said it should never be permitted under any circumstance, down from 11% in 2020.

    Because of the Catholic church’s strong teachings on the subject, Catholic voters appear educated on abortion issues. A solid majority (62%) are aware that a decision to overturn Roe v. Wade would result in federal and state legislators determining how to regulate abortion, as opposed to 24% who believe abortion immediately became illegal nationwide.

    By a nearly two-to-one margin, 59%-30%, Catholic voters support the Trump-era “conscience rule” that allows health care workers to opt out of procedures (such as abortion, sex-reassignment therapy, physician-assisted suicide) that conflict with their religious or moral beliefs.

    Regarding political clashes over gender identity, an overwhelming majority of Catholics (63%-25%) believe that gender was created by God rather than determined by individuals. On the divisive issue of allowing transgender people to participate in girls’ sports teams, 56% believe that allowing such competition conflicts with Catholic teaching.

    Most Catholic voters who are parents of school-aged children – 57% – said they had not considered alternate education for their children because of gender-identity-related school policies, but 33% have looked for other options, citing too much emphasis on gender identity in their children’s schools. 

    Susan Crabtree is RealClearPolitics’ White House/national political correspondent.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/16/2022 – 22:30

  • US Conducts "Successful Test" Of Two Hypersonic Weapons
    US Conducts “Successful Test” Of Two Hypersonic Weapons

    The US successfully conducted tests of two different hypersonic weapons, the US Air Force (USAF) and Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) announced, according to Reuters. Pentagon efforts to field hypersonic weapons on the modern battlefield have yet to occur, while China and Russia advance their hypersonic missiles in a new superpower arms race. 

    Hypersonic weapons are designed to travel more than Mach 5 (five times the speed of sound or about 3,850 mph) and outmaneuver the world’s most advanced missile defense shields. The US has yet to field any hypersonic weapons, while China and Russia have already. 

    In a sign US hypersonic weapons could soon be fielded, USAF reported a successful test of its Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW) booster on Tuesday off the Southern California coast. The ARRW was air-launched from the wing of a Boeing B-52 Stratofortress. In previous tests this year, the weapon failed to launch (read: here & here). 

    “This second successful test demonstrates ARRW’s ability to reach and withstand operational hypersonic speeds, collect crucial data for use in further flight tests, and validate safe separation from the aircraft,” Lockheed said.

    “We have now completed our booster test series and are ready to move forward to all-up-round testing later this year,” Air Force Brigadier General Heath Collins said. What he means by “all-up-round” is a complete weapon test with a warhead in the next launch. 

    DARPA also completed a successful hypersonic weapon test at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. The Operational Fires hypersonic weapon performed as expected, though few details were provided about speed and range and if the warhead struck a target.  

    Unlike ARRW’s air launch from a bomber, Operational Fires is a ground-launched system that will “rapidly and precisely engage critical, time-sensitive targets while penetrating modern enemy air defenses.”

    Both successful tests come after a hypersonic weapon failed to ignite at the Pacific Missile Range Facility in Hawaii in late June. 

    What’s evident is that the US is falling behind the hypersonic arms race as China and Russia have already fielded these weapons that travel at extraordinary speeds. Russia has even used hypersonic missiles in attacks against Ukraine. Meanwhile, China flew one around the world

    Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin testified in April before the House Armed Services Committee. He was involved in heated exchanges with lawmakers about the slow pace of the US hypersonic weapon program.

    “You recently called in the defense industrial community that were involved in the hypersonics development as to how we can speed that up,” Republican Representative Mike Turner of Ohio said. “We’re behind our adversaries.”

    Even though the US spends more on national defense than China, India, Russia, the UK, Saudi Arabia, Germany, France, Japan, and South Korea — combined, the Pentagon has yet to field hypersonic weapons on the modern battlefield, while US’ adversaries do.

    And that’s a significant problem for the Pentagon, which acts as the world’s police. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/16/2022 – 22:00

  • FBI Launched Inquiry Into NIH Funding Of Wuhan Lab, Emails Show
    FBI Launched Inquiry Into NIH Funding Of Wuhan Lab, Emails Show

    Authored by Eva Fu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    An aerial view shows the P4 laboratory at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in Wuhan in China’s central Hubei Province on April 17, 2020. (HECTOR RETAMAL/AFP via Getty Images)

    The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) launched an inquiry into the National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding of bat research in the Wuhan Institute of Virology, newly released emails show.

    The interest from the top U.S. intelligence agency adds to the international scrutiny on the Wuhan facility, which houses one of China’s highest-level biosecurity labs that has been considered a possible source of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    “In preparation for our call on Tuesday, Erik [Stemmy] (cc’d) has provided responses to your initial questions below (also attached),” wrote Ashley Sanders, an investigation officer at the NIH’s division of program integriy, in an email (pdf) dated May 22, 2020 with the subject “Grant Questions – FBI Inquiry,” and directed to FBI agent David Miller.

    The email was obtained by government transparency watchdog Judicial Watch through a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit, which asked for records of communications, contracts, and agreements with the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV).

    The scope of the inquiry is unclear because the rest of the email correspondence, five pages in total, are entirely redacted. But the name of the email attachment “SF 424 AI110964-06 (received date 11/05/2018),” corresponds to the NIH grant “Understanding the Risk of Bat Coronavirus Emergence.

    The project in question is headed by Peter Daszak of EcoHealth Alliance, which then funnels money to the lab in Wuhan. From 2014 to 2019, the New York nonprofit received six yearly grants totaling $3,748,715 from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases under the NIH to fund the project, which was expected to end in 2026.

    The FBI inquiry had focused on at least two of the grants, in 2014 and 2019 respectively, the email subject line suggests.

    The 2014 grant aimed to “understand what factors increase the risk of the next CoV emerging in people by studying CoV diversity in a critical zoonotic reservoir (bats), at sites of high risk for emergence (wildlife markets) in an emerging disease hotspot (China),” according to the project description. Specifically, the researchers would assess the coronavirus spillover potential, develop predictive models of bat coronavirus emergence risk, and use virus infection experiments as well as “reverse genetics” to test the virus’s transmission between species.

    WHO team member Peter Daszak leaves his hotel after the World Health Organization (WHO) team wrapped up its investigation into the origins of the COVID-19 coronavirus in Wuhan in China’s central Hubei province on February 10, 2021. (Hector Retamal/AFP via Getty Images)

    In the project summary for the 2019 grant, EcoHealth stated that they had found that “bats in southern China harbor an extraordinary diversity of SARSr-CoVs,” and some of those viruses can “infect humanized mouse models causing SARS-like illness, and evade available therapies or vaccines.”

    Recently disclosed documents show that, under one grant, the WIV had conducted an experiment that resulted in a more potent version of a bat coronavirus.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/16/2022 – 21:30

  • These Are The Countries With The Highest Default Risk
    These Are The Countries With The Highest Default Risk

    In May 2022, the South Asian nation of Sri Lanka defaulted on its debt for the first time. The country’s government was given a 30-day grace period to cover $78 million in unpaid interest, but ultimately failed to pay.

    Not only does this impact Sri Lanka’s economic future, but as Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu notes, it also raises an important question: which other countries are at risk of default?

    To find out, we’ve used data from Bloomberg to rank the countries with the highest default risk.

    The Sovereign Debt Vulnerability Ranking

    Bloomberg’s Sovereign Debt Vulnerability Ranking is a composite measure of a country’s default risk. It’s based on four underlying metrics:

    • Government bond yields (the weighted-average yield of the country’s dollar bonds)

    • 5-year credit default swap (CDS) spread

    • Interest expense as a percentage of GDP

    • Government debt as a percentage of GDP

    To better understand this ranking, let’s focus on Ukraine and El Salvador as examples.

     

    1 basis point (bps) = 0.01%

     

    Why are Ukraine’s Bond Yields so High?

    Ukraine has high default risk due to its ongoing conflict with Russia. To understand why, consider a scenario where Russia was to assume control of the country. If this happened, it’s possible that Ukraine’s existing debt obligations will never be repaid.

    That scenario has prompted a sell-off of Ukrainian government bonds, pushing their value down to nearly 30 cents on the dollar. This means that a bond with face value of $100 could be purchased for $30.

    Because yields move in the opposite direction of price, the average yield on these bonds has climbed to a very high 60.4%. As a point of comparison, the yield on a U.S. 10-year government bond is currently 2.9%.

    What is a CDS Spread?

    Credit default swaps (CDS) are a type of derivative (financial contract) that provides a lender with insurance in the event of a default. The seller of the CDS represents a third party between the lender (investors) and borrower (in this case, governments).

    In exchange for receiving coverage, the buyer of a CDS pays a fee known as the spread, which is expressed in basis points (bps). If a CDS has a spread of 300 bps (3%), this means that to insure $100 in debt, the investor must pay $3 per year.

    Applying this to Ukraine’s 5-year CDS spread of 10,856 bps (108.56%), an investor would need to pay $108.56 each year to insure $100 in debt (though it is in practice an upfront payment and then constant stream of payments which implies default is likely in the very short-term). This suggests that the market has very little faith in Ukraine’s ability to avoid default.

    Why is El Salvador Ranked Higher?

    Despite having lower values in the two metrics discussed above, El Salvador ranks higher than Ukraine because of its larger interest expense and total government debt.

    According to the data above, El Salvador has annual interest payments equal to 4.9% of its GDP, which is relatively high. Comparing to the U.S. once more, America’s federal interest costs amounted to 1.6% of GDP in 2020.

    When totaled, El Salvador’s outstanding debts are equal to 82.6% of GDP. This is considered high by historical standards, but today it’s actually quite normal.

    The next date to watch will be January 2023, as this is when the country’s $800 million sovereign bond reaches maturity. Recent research suggests that if El Salvador were to default, it would experience significant, yet temporary, negative effects.

    Another Hot Topic for El Salvador: Bitcoin

    In September 2021, El Salvador became the first country in the world to adopt bitcoin as legal tender. This means that Bitcoin is recognized by law as a means to settle debts and other obligations.

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) criticized this decision in early 2022, urging the country to revoke legal tender status. In hindsight, these warnings were wise, as Bitcoin’s value has fallen by 56% year-to-date.

    While this isn’t directly related to El Salvador’s default risk, it does open potential avenues for relief. For instance, large players in the crypto space may be willing to assist the government to keep the concept of “nation-state bitcoin adoption” alive.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/16/2022 – 21:00

  • The Feds Pile Up Vaccine 'Adverse Event' Reports As They Decry Scaremongering Elsewhere
    The Feds Pile Up Vaccine ‘Adverse Event’ Reports As They Decry Scaremongering Elsewhere

    Authored by Clayton Fox via RealClear Investigations,

    Since the Food and Drug Administration authorized the first vaccines for COVID-19 in late 2020, the government and much of the media have insisted that the medicines developed in record time are safe and effective. Those who raised questions about them have been routinely dismissed as conspiracy theorists.

    And yet an online database co-administered by the FDA and the Centers for Disease Control has compiled more than 1.3 million reports of vaccine-implicated  “adverse events” running the gamut from mild to severe, including 29,000 deaths.

    Representative entries include:

    • A 44-year-old male from California with a blood clot in the brain (CVST) five days after receiving Pfizer vaccine, dose unknown.

    • A 31-year-old female from Pennsylvania with heart inflammation (myocarditis) two days after receiving Moderna’s booster.

    • A 58-year-old female from California with blood clots in legs (DVT) after receiving Johnson & Johnson booster. She reported:

    “Day after booster on 11/16/21 my right leg was aching. 7 days later on 11/23/21 my sole of my right foot was very painful upon walking. This resolved 2 days later by 11/25/21. On day 11 (11/26/21) my ankle was slightly swollen and painful to touch. These symptoms continued to migrate up my leg to my inner thigh. On 12/13/21 I was seen by my primary care Doctor and was sent for a d-dimer blood test which was 1.77. I was seen in vascular dept and ultrasound indicated multiple DVT from my groin to my ankle.”

    These reports are not anecdotes from “anti-vaxxers” on the dark web. They come from the federal government’s open-source log, the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System. It allows anyone to go online and report a bad reaction that could be linked to any vaccine, including those for COVID-19.  (RealClearInvestigations has linked above to VAERS reports posted at Openvaers.com, an independently run and easier to navigate database that copies reports verbatim from the CDC’s less user-friendly “WONDER” system.)

    While the reports are unfiltered and unexamined, the idea is that such public input will allow researchers to identify potential problems. But the sheer number of reports, and their specificity, have the attention of concerned scientists and even some politicians like Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, who has invited people harmed by vaccines to testify before Congress and advocates compensation for them.

    Johnson’s office said he has been admonishing the health authorities over the VAERS reports for a year. “The senator believes the CDC and FDA need to take their own adverse event early warning system seriously and be transparent with the American people,” it said in a statement. “To date, they have not been.”

    VAERS was created in the late 1980s as an outgrowth of a congressional mandate to create a system for compensating vaccine victims and their families. In 2015, the CDC said the average number of annual reports was roughly 30,000. In 2021, there were nearly 1 million. Given the large increase during a politically charged pandemic, the usefulness of VAERS is the subject of great debate even among scientists

    Some health experts believe that the number of reports is primarily a function of increased publicity around the COVID vaccines, a high number indicating only that many more people are aware of the system and concerned about potential side effects from the shots. Others say the number and strong indications in certain symptom categories – such as the cardiovascular examples cited above – paint a bleaker picture of the vaccines’ safety.

    Dr. Peter McCullough, a renowned cardiologist and academic physician with over 600 papers published in medical literature, was one of the first professionals to publicly question the safety of the COVID-19 injections. On April 21, 2021, on his podcast The McCullough Report, he read out some of the early, alarming statistics from VAERS including reports of 502 heart attacks, 84 miscarriages, 321 cases of low blood platelet counts (thrombocytopenia) and 2,342 deaths. For Dr. McCullough, these numbers were a huge red flag. For comparison, he cites the last “mass vaccination program” undertaken in the United States, the 1976 swine flu vaccine. Dr. McCullough noted that there were approximately 55 million people vaccinated, with an accompanying 500 cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome, and around 25 deaths. “And the government officials at that time said, ‘we’re going to pull it.’”

    Dr. McCullough said that by April 2021, VAERS reports were already so numerous  that he felt the COVID vaccines should be pulled off the market. That same month, Fox News host Tucker Carlson voiced doubts about the vaccines’ effectiveness, and Dr. Anthony Fauci, President Biden’s top medical adviser, blasted him for pushing “a typical crazy conspiracy theory.”  

    As of today, the system has more than 29,000 reports of deaths.

    VAERS reports, however, are not hard evidence. Its website explains: “A report to VAERS generally does not prove that the identified vaccine(s) caused the adverse event described. It only confirms that the reported event occurred sometime after vaccine was given. No proof that the event was caused by the vaccine is required in order for VAERS to accept the report. VAERS accepts all reports without judging whether the event was caused by the vaccine.” Some of the FDA and CDC’s most senior veterans advise caution in interpreting the data.

    Susan Ellenberg, PhD, the former Director of the Office of Biostatistics and Epidemiology at the FDA’s Center for Biologics, told RCI that “anything that gets reported goes directly into the [VAERS] system … so mostly what you get is noise.” She said that it’s nearly impossible to prove causation with this dataset alone. Dr. Walter Orenstein, formerly the CDC’s director of immunization, concurs. He said, “That’s why it’s called adverse ‘events’ as opposed to reaction because reaction implies causation. Event is basically something that follows.” Elderly people, for example, die regularly; if they are dying days or weeks after being vaccinated, that does not necessarily mean the vaccine is killing them.

    There are many reasons why the VAERS data is usually insufficient to prove causality between vaccination and adverse events, including:

    • There is no reliable denominator to establish event rates – and no “control” group against which to measure adverse events.

    • Reports are often messy or incomplete.

    • Underreporting has been a consistent and documented issue. (One CDC study shows that the system may capture as few as 12% of adverse events, meaning the total for COVID-19 vaccines could be as high as 10.8 million.)

    • On the other hand, overreporting is also an issue, as noted in this 2003 CDC review: “Other potential reporting biases include increased reporting in the first few years after licensure, increased reporting of events occurring soon after vaccination, and increased reporting after publicity about a particular known or alleged type of adverse event.”

    • In the case of childhood vaccinations, vaccine sets are co-administered, making it nearly impossible to know which specific vaccine caused the adverse event.

    So why continue using an unreliable system – apart from the fact it was required by Congress? Experts agree that VAERS can be extremely useful in picking up signals of causation, which can be confirmed with further study, usually employing the government’s other major monitoring system: the CDC’s Vaccine Safety Datalink. The VSD uses the combined databases of nine major healthcare systems nationwide, providing detailed patient data, and the ability to look at control groups of unvaccinated patients. The downside to the VSD is that unless an issue comes through the healthcare system, it’s not going to be reported. So if someone dies at home after being vaccinated, it won’t make it into VSD, though it might make it into VAERS.

    One prime example of VAERS picking up a signal leading to an important safety discovery occurred in the late 1990s with the RotaShield vaccine for rotavirus – an ailment that causes diarrhea and vomiting in the very young. While clinical trials revealed a small number of cases of intussusception – the sometimes-deadly folding of the intestine in small children – the  finding was not seen as prohibitive. Nonetheless, public health researchers flagged it as something to look for in VAERS as the vaccine was distributed widely. When reports started piling up in VAERS, it led to a review process, which ultimately led to the manufacturer pulling the vaccine off the market and the FDA pulling its license. A clear success for the system.

    In the case of the COVID-19 vaccine products, Dr. Orenstein said VAERS has been a success, and that the large number of reports has been helpful in identifying certain issues. “The increased volume may be a good thing. Because of the increased reporting we’ve been able to detect causally related problems, with mRNA problems with myocarditis and pericarditis, and with J&J coagulation problems and Guillain-Barré, so in essence, VAERS is important.”

    Jessica Rose, an independent researcher in Israel, agrees, and has devoted the past year and a half to putting VAERS under a microscope. Dr. Rose has a PhD in computational biology from Bar-Ilan University, a post-doc in molecular biology from Hebrew University, and another in biochemistry from the Technion, widely considered Israel’s MIT. She has become a fierce critic of the COVID-19 vaccines and spent countless hours poring over VAERS reports to craft her articles on the emergent issues.

    For Rose, who has been collaborating with Dr. McCullough, the information available in the VAERS system on its own is sufficient to prove causality when it comes to vaccine-induced myocarditis from all three vaccines, especially the mRNA-based shots from Pfizer and Moderna. They specifically raise concerns around the high rate of myocarditis reported among boys ages 12-15. Their paper stating this was received, peer-reviewed, and accepted by Elsevier, the publisher of Current Problems in Cardiology, where the piece was to be released. It was then withdrawn from the site at the discretion of the editor. No basis was given for the removal. Dr. McCullough described the situation in detail to Bret Weinstein on his Dark Horse podcast in December. When asked for comment, Dr. McCullough told RealClearInvestigations:

    Elsevier, the world’s largest medical publisher, has for the first time in its history started violating publication contracts with unilateral retractions in the pandemic era. These papers were fully peer-reviewed, contracted, and published without any threats to scientific validity. The one thing in common for these retractions – they provided data on COVID-19 vaccine injuries, disabilities, and deaths. Thus Elsevier has broken the trust of the consuming public, doctors, and patients. In addition to legal exposure, Elsevier is losing ground to MDPI and other publishers that do not engage in corrupt censorship.

    Asked to respond to the cardiologist’s comment, Elsevier issued this statement to RCI: “We do not agree with these assertions; this article in press was withdrawn following our standard policies which are all publicly available on our website.”

    The Lyme Disease Precedent

    Dr. Orenstein and the federal health apparatus now acknowledge that adverse outcomes like myocarditis, coagulopathies/thrombosis, and Guillain-Barré have been established as causally related to the COVID-19 shots in certain cohorts – and that VAERS played a role in making those connections – but see them as rare.

    Former FDA epidemiologist Ellenberg says the sheer number of events in VAERS may reflect the revival of an old phenomenon: high adverse publicity around vaccines, similar to what happened with the Lyme disease vaccine and arthritis.

    Lyme disease can cause arthritis. So can aging. When many reports of arthritis started appearing in VAERS after that vaccine was rolled out in 1998, bad publicity followed. Ellenberg started receiving phone calls from lawyers asking her when FDA was going to pull the vaccine. Ultimately, FDA convened a panel to look into the correlation, and no causal connection was found. “But because of the publicity, use of the vaccine waned and eventually the producer took it off the market.”

    Regarding the COVID-19 vaccines, Jessica Rose said VAERS shows a grim picture that has nothing to do with publicity. The reporting system “is functioning as a pharmacovigilance tool right now,” she said. “There are an enormous number and range of safety signals being thrown out.”

    In March 2022, after the COVID-19 vaccine had been available for 15 months (462 days), she compared the number of VAERS reports related to these shots versus those for flu vaccines. Given the greater number of COVID shots administered during that period, she predicted that “the rate of reporting in VAERS…should be about twice for COVID than for flu.” What she found instead was “117.6 times as many reports of adverse events in the context of the COVID shots.”

    Rose is adamant. “This is not about the number of doses, this is about these products doing more damage [than the flu vaccines],” she said, “systemic, comprehensive damage that we’ve never seen before. There’s no doubting that these products are different.” When RCI queried Rose as to which three adverse events might be most readily proven as being caused by the vaccine with data posted in VAERS, she replied, “Myocarditis, Bell’s palsy, and anything related to clotting.

    Quietly, large numbers of peer-reviewed studies have been accumulating in legitimate journals, lending credence to those who believe many adverse events are occurring, and that they are causally related to vaccination. Just recently, a study of vaccines in three Nordic countries revealed a strong correlation between getting the Astra-Zeneca shot and a higher incidence of cardiovascular injury, and a lesser but still significant correlation for recipients of the Pfizer and Moderna products.

    Finally, a “preprint” study (not yet peer reviewed) uploaded June 23 and co-authored by Peter Doshi, a senior editor at the British Medical Journal, as well as physicians from UCLA and Stanford, concludes that a careful analysis of all available data now suggests that the benefits of vaccination do not outweigh the potential harms. To make their calculations, the researchers used data from VAERS as well as its European equivalent, EudraVigilance, and the WHO’s VigiBase.

    But the story remains complicated. For instance, Rose agreed drawing conclusions is complicated by the lack of data in VAERS about whether reporting patients have also recovered from COVID. Studies have now shown that having had COVID also increases the risk of cardiovascular events in the year after recovery. On the other hand, an Israeli analysis shows a correlation to vaccine rollout, but not to COVID-19 infection rates.

    With such variables, the task of monitoring vaccine safety can seem almost futile. But Dr. Robert Chen, the creator of VAERS, disagrees. He believes the system, in concert with the Vaccine Safety Datalink and other resources, has worked well in alerting the public health community to issues due to vaccination. He told RCI that “in terms of its main function of telling you that something is going on, it’s amazingly effective.”

    Dr. Orenstein said the VSD should be expanded if possible as a complement to VAERS but said that without a single national database, the current system of monitoring vaccine safety is “as good as it gets.” For Ellenberg, a statistician by training, “these are horrible, messy databases. You’re looking for a needle in a haystack.” When talking to other epidemiologists and encouraging them to create better systems for analyzing VAERS, Ellenberg said she uses this analogy: “If you can reduce the whole haystack to a handful of hay, then that makes your job just a little bit easier.”

    Rose acknowledges the messiness of VAERS, but believes it provides enough information to tell a story of danger. She said that in her analysis, 60% of VAERS reports describe events within 48 hours of vaccine administration – one more criteria for causality. Rose said: “It isn’t on me to prove that these products aren’t safe, this is on them [CDC, FDA], legally, to prove that these products are safe. And they’re not doing their jobs.” On that point, a recent public records request by Josh Guetzkow, Ph.D., and the legal team at Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Children’s Health Defense found that CDC has not been analyzing the VAERS data on COVID-19 shots using its own stated methods.

    In an email to RCI, the CDC stated, “COVID-19 vaccines are undergoing the most intense safety monitoring in U.S. history.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/16/2022 – 20:30

  • Comparing The Cost Of Living Around The World
    Comparing The Cost Of Living Around The World

    The amount of money that’s needed to pay for day-to-day expenses like housing and food varies greatly from city to city. And some cities, like New York City, are known as especially expensive places to live.

    So how do everyday expenses in New York City truly compare in costs to places like Beirut, Lebanon, or Bangalore, India?

    This graphic by Victor Dépré (hypntic.data) uses 2022 data from Numbeo to compare the cost of living and purchasing power in 578 different cities around the world, using New York City as a benchmark for comparison.

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    The Cost of Living Index

    Though New York City is widely recognized as one of the most expensive cities in the world, as Visual Capitalist’s Carmen Ang details below, according to Numbeo – the world’s largest database of user-contributed data on cities and countries – there are a number of cities that are actually more expensive than the Big Apple.

    Here’s a look at the comparative cost of living in 578 cities. For context, if a city has a cost of living index of 121, that means day-to-day expenses in it are 21% higher than New York’s, on average:

    Bermuda’s capital city Hamilton ranks first on the list, with a cost of living that’s nearly 50% higher than New York’s.

    Why is Hamilton so expensive? One reason is that nearly everything needs to be imported onto the tiny British archipelago—things like gas, groceries, and clothes—so it’s likely that prices in the territory are steep as a result.

    Second on the list is Zurich, Switzerland, where expenses are roughly 30% higher than New York City. Food and beverages are particularly expensive in the region—according to the dataset, groceries are 58% more expensive than groceries in NYC, and restaurant prices are 55% higher.

    However, it’s worth noting that while Zurich ranks high on the cost of living index, the city’s purchasing power is also strong, which we will dive into in the next section.

    The Local Purchasing Power Index

    Purchasing power is a metric that’s used to gauge the number of goods and services someone on an average salary can buy in that specific city.

    Taking a look again at Zurich, consumers in the city have about 30% more purchasing power than New York City residents on average, despite having higher costs.

    In contrast, the average consumer in Hamilton, Bermuda has a relatively low purchasing power. Based on the average net salary in the city, consumers can afford about 30% less than people in New York City.

    Inflation Continues to Drive Prices Up

    Amidst rising inflation and increased prices for consumer goods, cost of living has become top of mind for many people around the world.

    Since late 2021, the world has been experiencing a cost of living crisis, largely because of pent-up demand following the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with supply chain issues and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

    But according to UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan, we’ve likely seen the worst of it, and inflation is likely to decrease across the globe in the second half of the year.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/16/2022 – 20:00

  • The 2022 House Midterm By The Numbers
    The 2022 House Midterm By The Numbers

    Authored by James E. Campbell via RealClearPolitics.com,

    Midterm elections involve high stakes, a great deal of groundless guessing, and lots of numbers – oddly similar to lotteries. Unlike lotteries, though, the many numbers associated with midterm elections are meaningful. The six meaningful midterm “lotto” numbers below should help historically ground your anticipation of what is likely or unlikely to happen in this year’s House elections, as well as set the eventual outcome in its historical perspective. You will have to use your imagination about the numbered ping-pong balls and the machine mixing them up.

    On to the all-important numbers.

    Our first number is 7.

    Since 1912 when the size of the House was fixed at 435 seats, there have been 27 midterm elections. As most everyone knows, the president’s party gained seats in only three of these (1934, 1998, and 2002). But in four additional midterms, in-party’s losses were minimal (fewer than ten seats). 7 glimmers of hope for Democrats.

    Our second number is 58.

    The 7 in-party success story midterms are ordered in Table 1 by the net number of seats gained or lost by the president’s party. Gallup’s presidential approval ratings immediately prior to the election are included, with two exceptions. These are Coolidge’s 1926 and FDR’s 1934 midterms that pre-date Gallup’s collection of approval ratings.

    In each of these 7 midterm success stories, presidents were very popular. Approval ratings were in the mid-60s for three and likely a fourth – that being Kennedy in 1962. His mid-October rating was a strong 61%, but it missed the boost he received from the resolution of the Cuban missile crisis. The crisis occurred after the October poll, but before the election. In his first post-midterm poll in late November, Kennedy’s rating had soared to 74%. His approval on election day was probably in the mid to high 60s.

    The two presidents on the list with unmeasured approval marks, Coolidge and FDR, were certainly very popular in their midterms. Both midterms were bracketed by presidential landslides. The list’s lowest approval rating of a president is President George H.W. Bush in 1990 at 58%. To get on the midterm success story list, it takes a presidential approval rating of at least 58%.

    Our third number is 41. 

    In contrast to success stories of popular presidents, parties of unpopular presidents routinely take a beating. The midterms of the eight least popular presidents in the 19 midterms since 1946 are listed in Table 2. The table starts with 1946, the first midterm in which Gallup’s presidential approval ratings were collected. Presidential unpopularity ranged from the mildly unpopular Obama (45% approval) in 2010 to the extremely unpopular Truman (33% approval) in 1946. In seven of these eight midterms with unpopular presidents, the in-party lost more than 25 seats. In two, losses exceeded 55 seats.

    2022 easily makes the list of midterms with unpopular presidents. Biden’s approval rating took a dive in late summer of 2021 and has slowly sunk even lower. The multiple reasons for his unpopularity are too numerous to catalog here, but they span the three crucial dimensions of dissatisfaction with his record (including the economy), his policy ineffectiveness and extremism across a wide range of issues, and a lack of confidence in his leadership.

    For whatever mix of reasons, Biden’s presidential approval ratings are dismal. In the RCP daily average of polls, Biden’s approval has been less than 43% since January 2, 2022 (as of July 4th, for 183 consecutive days) and less than 41% since May 25, 2022. His approval ratings in Gallup have been 43% or lower for ten straight months (since September 2021). Gallup observed that no first-term president from Eisenhower in 1954 to Trump in 2018 has had a lower approval rating than Biden’s in June of the second year of his term. None lower. Biden’s rating for June was 41%.

    Our fourth number is 0.

    Though most attention in 2020 was focused on the controversial presidential contest and then on the 50-50 tie in Senate after the pair of controversial Senate runoffs in Georgia, attention in more normal times would have been drawn to the razor-thin party division for control of the House. Democrats won 222 seats and Republicans 213, providing Democrats with a 5 seat majority.

    A major question for the 2022 midterm is whether Democrats can hold the House. Can they avoid a net seat loss of five seats or more to the Republicans? In the 27 midterms since 1914, as Table 1 showed, the president’s party has only avoided losing fewer than five seats on four occasions. In three (1934, 1998, and 2002) they gained seats, and in a fourth (1986) they lost four seats. As we noted in Table 1, the presidents in these midterms were very popular (63% approval or better). Biden does not reside in that hemisphere. At 41%, he is 22 points short. With the consistency of his low ratings, the fact that many who disapprove of his performance do so strongly (i.e., not just chants of “Let’s Go Brandon”), and the multifaceted grounds for disapproval, the probability of Democrats maintaining their House majority is 0 (zero).

    Our fifth number is 34.

    With Biden’s poor approval ratings, placing him in the middle or lower in Table 2’s list of unpopular presidents, the real question is how many seats Republicans will gain. To this point, we have focused on one important determinant of midterm outcomes, the popularity or unpopularity of the president. But a second important factor is the number of seats each party currently holds and the limits of the party’s competitiveness.

    Both parties have competitive limits imposed by the partisan stability of American politics. Some districts are realistically “off the table” for a party. Even under the best of circumstances, the party stands no real chance of winning them. In the aggregate, this creates upper and lower limits for how many seats a party can realistically win or lose. The limits can change with time, especially after realignments alter party competitiveness, but are otherwise are quite resilient.

    Table 3 lists the top ten strongest Republican Party outcomes over the 45 House elections (on-year and midterm) held in the 90 years since FDR’s election of 1932. As several others have also noted (see Josh Kraushaar, “How Big a Wave can House Republicans expect?” National Journal, 6/23/22), the upper limit for Republicans has been 247 seats. The GOP has reached into the 240s in four elections, but topped out at 247 seats in 2014. In 2022, Republicans can reach their historical competitiveness limit of 247 with a gain of 34 seats over their 2020 showing. Any gains beyond 34 would be a historic breakthrough.

    Our sixth and final number is 13. 

    In reviewing the list of midterm seat losses for the president’s party, Democrats might take heart in the results of Obama’s 2014 midterm. Obama’s approval rating of only 42% that year is comparable to Biden’s low ratings this year, and the Republicans in 2014 gained only 13 seats. Among midterms with unpopular presidents, this was an unusually light loss.

    Why did Democrats lose so few seats that year with Obama’s ratings so low, and could this happen again in 2022? Could the Democrats with their highly unpopular president escape 2022 with only minor bruises? At this point, many Democrats might celebrate Republicans picking up only a dozen or so seats.

    This is not going to happen, and Table 4 explains why. The table lists the twelve midterm elections since 1934 in which a Democrat was in the White House. The midterms are ordered by the number of seats Republicans held after the midterm. It also indicates how many seats Republicans held coming into the midterm and the seat change produced by the midterm. As in Table 3, the 247 Republican limit is clear. It is also clear that Republican seat gains in 2014 were as small as they were because Republicans at 234 seats went into the election already very close to their 247 historical limit. The gain of only 13 seats reflects the constraints of the competitiveness limit.

    In 2022, Republicans enter the midterm with much more room from their competitiveness limit than they had in 2014 and with many reasons to think that their 247 limit may no longer be their limit. There is significant movement of working class voters across racial and ethnic groups toward the Republicans. There is movement in party affiliations. In the end, history regularly constrains us; but, on occasion, history can also be made.

    So to recap, your House-Midterm Lotto Numbers for 2022 are: 0, 7, 13, 34, 41 and 58.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/16/2022 – 19:30

  • Skittles Allegedly "Unfit For Human Consumption," Lawsuit Claims
    Skittles Allegedly “Unfit For Human Consumption,” Lawsuit Claims

    Bloomberg Law reports a new lawsuit filed in California claims that Skittles contain a dangerous toxin called “titanium dioxide,” rendering the candy “unfit for human consumption.” 

    On Thursday, plaintiff Jenile Thames filed a lawsuit in the Northern District of California against Skittles-maker Mars Inc., alleging consumers who “taste the rainbow” of sugar “are at heightened risk of a host of health effects for which they were unaware stemming from genotoxicity – the ability of a chemical substance to change DNA.”

    Mars uses titanium dioxide as food coloring to make the candy more visually appealing. The toxin is also used in industrial applications such as plastics, adhesives, printer inks, and roofing materials. 

    The civil suit argues Mars understood the risks of using titanium dioxide in candy-making and, in 2016, even publicly announced that it would eliminate the toxin from food. In Europe, France banned the toxin from food in 2019, and in 2021, the European Food Safety Authority determined it couldn’t be considered safe for consumption.

    “Incredibly, Defendant even claimed that ‘[a]rtificial colors pose no known risks to human health or safety,'” Thames’s lawsuit alleges. “In doing so, Defendant concealed from consumers material information it knew.”

    Thames said Skittles sold in the US still contain titanium dioxide and Mars is “failing to inform consumers of the implications of consuming the toxin.”

    “Instead, Defendant relies on the ingredient list which is provided in minuscule print on the back of the Products, the reading of which is made even more challenging by the lack of contrast in color between the font and packaging, as set out below in a manner in which consumers would normally view the product in the store,” court papers said. 

    Thames seeks class-action status for all US consumers and unspecified damages from Mars. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/16/2022 – 19:00

  • California Spent $500 Million On Diversity, Equity, & Inclusion Training, Report Reveals
    California Spent $500 Million On Diversity, Equity, & Inclusion Training, Report Reveals

    Authored by Matt McGregor via The Epoch Times,

    California has spent up to $500 million on diversityequity, and inclusion programs in its local government, K-12 school districts, and higher education in the years between 2020 and 2022, according to a report from a nonprofit watchdog group.

    The Center for Organizational Research and Education (CORE) researches activist groups to report on their “funding, agendas, and tactics.”

    “In recent years, the concept of critical race theory and its variants – often camouflaged as more generic ‘diversity, equity, and inclusion’ (DEI) activities, has entered the national spotlight, and infiltrated publicly-funded entities,” CORE said.

    The analysis summarizes the results of 400 public record requests sent to state and local governments, and higher education and K-12 institutions in California, CORE said.

    The results are unmistakable: spending related to DEI and critical race theory-framed activities is a vast and growing component of taxpayer-funded spending at all levels of California government,” CORE stated.

    DEI has become its own $1 billion industry funded by taxpayer dollars, CORE said.

    “Based on the responsive documents our team received, we calculated at least $188 million directly linked DEI spending, and $308 million more in adjacent spending, totaling nearly $500 million in possible DEI spending in California,” CORE said in its report.

    The total DEI represents 46 percent of requests for public records of DEI spending sent out, CORE said, with less than 11 percent of institutions responding that they had no records related to the request.

    “Considering roughly 40 percent of our requests are still unfulfilled, we expect the true amount is much higher,” CORE said.

    “Our findings are proof that critical race theory and DEI are a vast and growing part of the California government.”

    CORE points to the Department of Conservation, which, “despite experiencing some of its worst-recorded forest fires and water shortages,” the department spent $180,000 of its environmental budget on including critical race theory in its training.

    The argument for critical race theory is often that it’s teaching real history, while those who would have critical race theory removed are trying to “whitewash” history; however, there’s been no evidence of any public school attempting to erase entire sections of its curriculum on slavery.

    “Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion is becoming California’s newest billion-dollar industry—on the taxpayer’s dime,” CORE lead researcher Will Coggin told Fox News Digital.

    It’s everywhere from kindergarten in the classrooms to the Department of Fish and Wildlife. Instead of effectively addressing issues like housing, crime, or homelessness, California officials have chosen to line the pockets of well-connected diversity consultants,” Coggin said.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/16/2022 – 18:30

  • Far Fewer Military Families Recommend Uniformed Service: Survey
    Far Fewer Military Families Recommend Uniformed Service: Survey

    Substantially fewer military families would recommend uniformed service to others, a new survey by Military Family Advisory Network (MFAN) finds.  

    Just 63% of surveyed service members and family members would recommend service to someone considering it. That’s a big drop from just two years earlier, when 75% said they’d encourage others to join. The results released on July 14 are from a far-ranging survey of more than 8,600 people conducted in late 2021. 

    The finding is an ill omen for military recruiters who are already struggling to meet their goals. The U.S. Army Recruiting Command (USAREC) says a whopping 71% of youth do not qualify for military service because of obesity, drugs, physical and mental health problems, misconduct and aptitude. 

    Meanwhile, USAREC likes to call the Army a “family business,” noting that 79% of recruits have a relative who served. Substantially lower enthusiasm among those who’ve served is certain to throw a wet blanket on recruiting efforts.     

    Source: Military Family Advisory Network 

    When researchers delved into the thinking of service members, veterans and family members who won’t recommend military service, five top rationales surfaced: 

    • Military service is hard on marriages, family relationships and relationships with children
    • Military pay is too low, especially given the job’s difficulty and stress
    • Some military leaders are bad, corrupt, abusive and controlling
    • Benefits such as health care aren’t worth the challenges associated with service
    • Frequent moves between duty stations and frequent overseas deployments

    The report includes some representative quotes from respondents…

    It is not easy. It will wreak havoc in your relationship. I would recommend it if you plan on staying single and/or not having children” — Spouse of an active duty Marine.

    “My husband is gone all the time requiring me to leave my job and raise the children alone. It has put a lot of strain on our marriage.” — Navy spouse

    “PTSD created insecurities and other issues that held to the end of the marriage.” — Army veteran

    “It is a difficult job and life, and the ‘benefits’ simply are not worth it. Especially since said benefits just keep dwindling and decreasing in quality the longer we are in. Military life not only affects the mental health of the service member but also that of their family. Additionally, I would not want anyone I care about, or even people I don’t care about, to be subjected to toxic work environments.” — Navy spouse

    “With constantly PCSing, it is difficult to establish a long lasting relationship. Especially the kids. Moving, changing schools in the middle of the semester, leaving friends, etc. It’s super hard for them.” — Army spouse

    The survey also found 54% of military and veteran family respondents have experienced loneliness and 23% of enlisted families reported difficulty affording food.  

    “When we’re going through this report and seeing some of the findings and the reality that a lot of families are having a hard time making ends meet, it’s not all that startling to see that there will be a decline [in service members, veterans and family members recommending service],” MFAN president Shannon Razsadin tells Defense One“But what I was really surprised by was that it was as big of a decline as it is.”

    There are surely more declines to come—as more service members and veterans reluctantly realize their participation in America’s unjust and disastrous military interventions has done nothing good for their fellow citizens or the world. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/16/2022 – 18:00

  • The Strangest Recession Of Our Lifetimes
    The Strangest Recession Of Our Lifetimes

    Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

    The evidence of economic weakness and decline fill the headlines day by day, with major banks reporting lower earnings, big box stores with excess inventories, home sales skidding, and consumer sentiment crashing.

    Meanwhile, inflation in all sectors is raging so high and hot that it has overtaken every other issue that polls say matter in the lives of average Americans.

    This inflationary recession—also called stagflation—is an odd beast in any case. The combination of both purchasing power declines and falling productivity violates not only every modeling presumption made since the Keynesian revolution of the 1930s but also just plain intuition. Higher prices are supposed to signal higher demand and/or tighter supply, not lower demand and higher supply.

    So yes, this is strange. We are going to have to get used to it. It’s what happens when the money itself loses its integrity. The whole point of money in the first place—the essence of its economic utility—is to provide a common tool of measurement to facilitate trade and enable accounting. Its emergence permits investors, producers, and capital owners to assess the economic rationality of their actions.

    When money blows up and no longer serves as a reliable guide to economic realities, various degrees of chaos ensue. You can feel like you are getting richer when you are really getting poorer. What can seem like profits are really losses. What seems like a hopeful environment can quickly switch to the other direction and become despair.

    This is why inflation induces such fear in every sector of life.

    We learned this in the 1970s as stagflation gradually took over in successive waves until it was stopped in 1981 by two major shifts: tighter money and a policy emphasis on strong economic growth. Today we are getting the former but not the latter, virtually guaranteeing a serious quagmire that will last at least two more years. The economic damage of this period will be too enormous to contemplate.

    But let’s take a careful look at the strangest anomaly of all: the unemployment rate. It is historically low right now, at 3.6 percent. That is far lower than it has ever been during any impending recession. In fact, it is as low as any period since the end of World War II.

    (Data: Federal Reserve Economic Data [FRED], St. Louis Fed; Chart: Jeffrey A. Tucker)

    And yet, everyone knows that this is not a reason for hope: the labor participation rate is about where it was forty years ago, as if the whole experience of a more inclusive workforce never happened. It is also currently falling. There are reasons both demographic and cultural for this but it is impossible to understand without reference to the egregious and devastating effects of lockdowns.

    (Data: Federal Reserve Economic Data [FRED], St. Louis Fed; Chart: Jeffrey A. Tucker)

    In other words, the official unemployment rate measures only those who are looking for work right now. It does not count those who are not looking for work (or who have figured out how to pay the bills by working unofficially).

    That makes sense in a way. Why count people who are not even looking for work as part of the unemployed masses?

    On the other hand, it is a case of how a statistically accurate number can create a seriously misleading picture.

    By any standard, this measure of economic health is broken. Every recession on record in the 20th century has been marked by high unemployment. This pattern has been so strong that it has confused even smart economists, many of whom came to believe that the labor problem was itself a cause—rather than an effect—of the recession. They often sought to solve this issue through benefits and job creation programs, policy tricks that have never worked.

    Today, this no longer works. But this points to a larger problem: most of these data sets are overly aggregated. The big number treats all “workers” as a whole without regard to demographics. The Department of Labor tries to break it down by categories but not in ways that are particularly helpful. We can find out all kinds of things about race and gender but not much about the issue that really terrifies people: which income groups are most vulnerable to job insecurity today.

    Only about 20 percent of U.S. workers are able to earn more than $100,000 per year but these are the target jobs that every single college graduate wants. Ironically, this is because everyone knows that these are the jobs that require the least work and offer the most benefits. They are the Zoom jobs that everyone wanted to have during the lockdowns because it meant getting up late, wearing PJs all day, and starting cocktail hour mid-afternoon.

    Life was good! Better than good!

    My friends, beware. Everything we are seeing among current economic trends suggests that these jobs, more than any other, are vulnerable to being slaughtered in tight economic times.

    This would be the opposite of the 2008 recession. Back then, unemployment peaked at 10 percent. But a more careful look at the numbers showed something incredible. This affected the high incomes not at all: their rate of unemployment never went above 3.2 percent.

    A breakdown of the data revealed that the unemployment of that period hit mostly the working classes earning wages, while leaving the upper incomes untouched. The disparity of economic suffering was the single most salient feature of that period.

    This time, we face something completely different. There is a huge shortage of workers willing to earn relatively lower incomes, show up to the office, earn wages, and actually work with their hands, drive the trucks, move the boxes, and make the food. There is, on the other hand, a huge surplus of workers demanding huge salaries to stare at screens, stay home, gossip on Slack, and otherwise deploy their generous benefits packages to their maximum extent.

    This recession will very likely be felt in the labor markets severely but the impact will not be among those who are willing to do actual work versus earn high incomes by virtue of their college credentials. The people who are in for a rude awakening are those who have heretofore imagined that their CVs alone would guarantee a good life.

    In other words, this will be a “welcome-to-reality” moment for the entire class of people who rode out the pandemic response by “staying home and staying safe” while expecting the working classes to serve their every need. They gladly took their stimulus checks even though they saw no interruption in their income streams, while figuring out clever ways to trick their bosses into believing they were productive while doing almost nothing at all.

    Perhaps the best term for our times is: reckoning. Thanks to massive government spending and the magic printing press, the administrative state created a fake world in which the overclass thrived for at least two years. Some might say that this fakery actually began in 2008 and continued through the whole decade.

    In the end, economic reality can be slow to dawn but the dawn can burn very bright once it happens. This inflationary recession will be one for the ages. It could be a rare instance in which the overclass itself feels the most pain while workers with actual skills and the desire to produce will find a way to make it through despite every obstacle.

    The “essential workers” are about to find out just how essential they really are.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/16/2022 – 17:30

  • Major Study Confirms COVID Vaccines Alter Women's Periods
    Major Study Confirms COVID Vaccines Alter Women’s Periods

    Since Covid vaccines first became available more than a year and a half ago, women have been sounding alarms about the shots’ adverse effect on their menstruation.

    For example, in an August 2021 article at The Grayzone that criticized the U.S. medical establishment’s failure to study the effects of the vaccines on women’s reproductive systems, Marcie Smith Parenti recounted disturbing experiences from her own circle of friends: 

    Their symptoms have included hemorrhagic bleeding lasting more than a month; heavy intermittent bleeding for four months; passing golf-ball size clots of blood; and extreme cramping, serious enough to land one friend in the ER.

    On social media, the The Grayzone was accused of “fearmongering,” being “anti-vax,” and peddling “dangerous disinformation.” Meanwhile, the response of the FDA and CDC to women’s pleas might be best characterized as a bureaucratic shrug.

    In August, NPR said the FDA and all three U.S. vaccine manufacturers claimed “they have not seen evidence that any of the vaccines cause menstrual irregularities.” The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists said it was “aware” of the complaints, but urged women to plunge forward with vaccinations anyway without regard to the timing of their cycles.   

    Now, however, a large-scale study adds substantial new confirmation of what thousands of women have been proclaiming since the jabs started. As NBC News reports: 

    “An analysis published Friday in the journal Science Advances found that 42% of people with regular menstrual cycles said they bled more heavily than usual after vaccination…14% reported a lighter period.

    The study also found many women who don’t typically menstruate—such as those beyond menopause and those on certain long-term contraceptives—experienced “breakthrough” or unexpected bleeding after receiving Covid vaccines.

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    The authors of the study note that the percentages reporting unusual menstruation may overstate the actual frequency to some degree, as those who’d had bad experiences may have been more inclined to participate in the study.  

    One of the authors is University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign biological anthropologist Kathryn Clancy, who’d experienced the phenomenon herself. In her case, it was an extraordinarily heavy and lengthy period, which is called “menstrual flooding.”

    Her suspicions were magnified when one of her graduate students had told her she’d “had the worst cramps of her life” after receiving a Covid shot. Clancy promptly took to Twitter in February 2021 and asked if other women had endured anything similar. Many confirmed they had, which led to the launch of a formal study. 

    She and the grad student, Katharine Lee, initially set out to survey 500 women. That many signed up in a single hour. The authors reset their sights and ended up with more than 165,000 participants from all over the world. This week’s findings represent an analysis of a subset of more than 39,000 participants between 18 and 80 years old.

    It remains to be seen if the menstrual changes are a sign of something more sinister. Regardless, many women who’ve experienced them without having received an FDA warning about the side-effect have surely been alarmed. Post-menopausal bleeding, for example, is a symptom of uterine cancer. 

    Why was there no warning from the FDA? Because those who participated in Covid vaccine trials weren’t even asked about menstrual changes. 

    For its part, The New York Times cheerfully assures us that “experts” say there’s no cause for alarm. Sure, the “experts” have already unleashed a multifaceted public health catastrophe in the name of battling Covid, but trust them this time, ladies!

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    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/16/2022 – 17:00

  • 'Strong Consumer'? Money, Not COVID, Is The Biggest Travel Hurdle This Summer
    ‘Strong Consumer’? Money, Not COVID, Is The Biggest Travel Hurdle This Summer

    After two years of COVID-related restrictions and inhibitions, travelers are ready to hit the beaches in masses this summer – that is if they can still afford it

    Source: FreightWaves.com

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/16/2022 – 16:00

  • This Proxy War Has No Exit Strategy
    This Proxy War Has No Exit Strategy

    Authored by Caitlin Johnstone via Medium.com,

    The International Committee of the Democratic Socialists of America has released a statement opposing the US government’s ongoing proxy war in Ukraine, saying the billions being funneled into the military-industrial complex “at a time when ordinary Americans are struggling to pay for housing, groceries, and fuel” is “a slap in the face for working people.” The statement advocates a negotiated settlement for peace, saying continuing to pour weapons into the country will “needlessly prolong the war, resulting in more civilian deaths” and that it “risks escalating and widening the war — up to and including nuclear war.”

    In response to this entirely reasonable and moderate position, the DSA is currently being raked over the coals with accusations of Kremlin loyalty and facilitation of murder and bloodshed by blue-checkmarked narrative managers on Twitter. This is because the only acceptable positions for anyone of significant influence to have about this war range from supporting continuing current proxy warfare operations to initiating a direct hot war between NATO and Russia.

    That’s how narrow the permissible spectrum of debate has been shrunk regarding this conflict: status quo hawkish to omnicidal hawkish. Anything outside that spectrum gets framed as radical extremism. As Noam Chomsky said: “The smart way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of acceptable opinion, but allow very lively debate within that spectrum — even encourage the more critical and dissident views. That gives people the sense that there’s free thinking going on, while all the time the presuppositions of the system are being reinforced by the limits put on the range of the debate.”

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    This spectrum of debate has been shrunk on the one hand by imperial spinmeisters continually hammering home the message that any support for de-escalation and diplomatic solutions is “appeasement” and indicative of Russian sympathies, and on the other by hawkish pundits and politicians pushing for the most freakishly aggressive responses to this war possible. By forbidding the spectrum of acceptable debate to move toward peace while shoving it as hard as possible in the direction of warmongering extremism, imperial narrative managers have successfully created an Overton window wherein the only debate permitted is over how directly and forcefully Russia should be confronted, with calls for peace now falling far outside that window.

    Which is a problem, because both direct NATO hot war with Russia and continuing along the empire’s current course of action in Ukraine are stupid. Direct conflict between nuclear powers likely means a very fast and very radioactive third world war, and the status quo proxy warfare approach isn’t stopping Russia as more and more territory is taken in the east in cool defiance of western claims that Ukraine is bravely vanquishing its evil invaders. Biden administration officials have told the press that they doubt Ukraine will even be able to reclaim the territory it has lost already. Unless and until something significant changes, Ukraine has no apparent path to victory in this war anytime soon.

    In short, there is no exit strategy to this proxy war. There are no plans in place to deliver Putin a swift defeat, and the Biden administration remains steadfastly dismissive of even the slightest gestures toward diplomacy with Moscow. Boris Johnson has reportedly been buzzing around admonishing Ukraine’s President ZelenskyFrance’s President Macron and who knows who else not to work toward peace in Ukraine. The doors to ending this war quickly by either winning it or negotiating a peace settlement are both bolted shut, all but guaranteeing a long and bloody slog.

    Which as it turns out suits Washington just fine. Biden administration officials have stated that the goal is to use the Ukraine war to “weaken” Russia, and the US already has an established pattern of working to draw Moscow into costly military quagmires as we saw in both Afghanistan and Syria. Continuing to pour weapons and military intelligence into Ukraine while working to cut Russia off from the world stands no chance of ending the war in a timely manner, but it does stand a pretty good chance of bleeding and weakening Moscow.

    And since this is the course of action that has been taken by the empire, we can only assume that this is its desired outcome: not victory, not peace, but a long and gruelling war.

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    One of the major recurring criticisms of the Iraq invasion was that Bush rushed into it without an exit strategy, without a plan for ending the war once it had been started. This proxy war with Russia not only lacks a strategy for ending the war, it apparently only has strategies for not ending the war. No exit strategy is the strategy.

    Whenever you point out the insanity of this approach you’ll get useful idiots of the empire objecting that by criticizing US proxy warfare and supporting a negotiated settlement you are guilty of “appeasement” and exactly the same as Neville Chamberlain, because the only argument empire apologists ever have is to compare every US-targeted government to Nazi Germany.

    According to these propaganda-addled empire automatons, having the story of not compromising with Putin-Hitler and not committing the sin of “appeasement” is worth sacrificing everyone in the entire nation of Ukraine for. They will happily throw every Ukrainian life into the gears of this war while they sit safe at home eating Funyuns and tweeting, just so they can have that “we didn’t compromise with Putin” story hanging on their mental mantlepiece.

    How many more lives are such people prepared to feed into an unwinnable war which the west knowingly provoked? How many more of other people’s children are they prepared to sacrifice? How long does the bloodshed need to drag on before their “no appeasement” story loses value to them? How long until people wake up from their propaganda-induced comas and realize we’ve been manipulated into supporting a proxy war which benefits ordinary people in no real way, and in fact impoverishes us and threatens our very lives?

    There is no morally consistent argument for continuing this proxy war in the way it has been going. If you actually value life and peace, the only way out is through negotiation and compromise. I point this out not because I believe it will happen, but to hopefully help a few more people open their eyes to the fact that we are being deceived.

    *  *  *

    My work is entirely reader-supported, so if you enjoyed this piece please consider sharing it around, following me on FacebookTwitterSoundcloud or YouTube, or throwing some money into my tip jar on Ko-fiPatreon or Paypal. If you want to read more you can buy my books. The best way to make sure you see the stuff I publish is to subscribe to the mailing list for at my website or on Substack, which will get you an email notification for everything I publish. Everyone, racist platforms excluded, has my permission to republish, use or translate any part of this work (or anything else I’ve written) in any way they like free of charge. For more info on who I am, where I stand, and what I’m trying to do with this platform, click here. All works co-authored with my American husband Tim Foley.

    Bitcoin donations:1Ac7PCQXoQoLA9Sh8fhAgiU3PHA2EX5Zm2

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/16/2022 – 15:30

  • Carson Block Says The Stress Of Being A Short-Seller Forced Him To Give A Presentation In Adult Diapers Once
    Carson Block Says The Stress Of Being A Short-Seller Forced Him To Give A Presentation In Adult Diapers Once

    It’s bad enough short sellers have had to fight the Fed. Now, with the Department of Justice prying into their affairs, the stress level of the job has risen dramatically – and there’s no better example of literally how much of a pain in the ass the job is than a story well known short seller Carson Block shared with Bloomberg last week.

    Block opened up to Bloomberg, questioning whether or not it is worth continuing professionally as a short seller, in a new interview. The fund manager also shared a graphic story to try and make a point of just how stressful life as a short seller can sometimes be. 

    The story dates back to 2018, when Block was short shares of TAL Education group and was planning on giving a presentation on the name. While flying to his destination, details about his presentation may have leaked, because another player in the market other than Muddy Waters appeared to be taking a short position in the name.

    Fearing he would get carried out in an ensuing mega-squeeze, Block called off the presentation and told his firm to unwind the trade. But the damage was already done: Block said the stress of the incident literally tore him apart…

    “The stock’s rocketing, I’m just physically ill, I want to vomit, and I’ve got a million things racing through my mind,” he told Bloomberg. To make matters worse, when his flight touched down, he says “he felt a hemorrhoid burst”.

    After getting off the plane, Block “bought a sweatshirt from an airport gift shop to cover the stain” on his pants, and “bought a box of Depends”. He then switched the topic of his speech to Chinese accounting, which he gave while wearing adult diapers. 

    For his trouble as a short seller, DOJ prosecutors and the Securities and Exchange Commission are “examining whether short sellers are improperly teaming up to attack public companies” in a wide ranging probe that has been ongoing since last year. 

    “There’s a gun pointed at us, and it’s really uncomfortable,” Block said. “Anytime somebody points a gun at you, there’s a non-zero chance something goes wrong even if that’s not their original
    intention.”

    Block told Bloomberg he’s confident that his firm hasn’t done anything illegal, and also said that whoever tried to front-run him on the day of the incident also had done anything illegal. But the trouble seems to be enough to make him rethink the industry he’s in. 

    Short selling was once a world where market outsiders could say what they wanted to, he commented: “Most of us were in some way outsiders for a long f—ing time. It’s really hard for us to hold our tongues and not make people feel uncomfortable.” 

    But he “questioned whether it’s worth the trouble anymore,” during his interview, Bloomberg wrote – even though short sellers often help make fraud cases for regulators: “The guys who’ve been making cases for years based on our s—, if they think we’re a f—-ing problem, there’s no end.”

     

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/16/2022 – 15:00

  • Celsius Bites The Dust: The Biggest Crypto News For The Second Week Of July
    Celsius Bites The Dust: The Biggest Crypto News For The Second Week Of July

    By Donovan Choy of Bankless

    Welcome to the weekly recap of the biggest crypto news for the second week of July.

    Celsius files bankruptcy

    I’ve used a centralized crypto lender (AKA crypto bank). The argument for these financial services is pretty straightforward and it goes a little something like this:

    “DeFi UX is bad. People don’t want to store 24-word-long seed phrases on paper. Want your Mom to use DeFi? Then be pragmatic about it. Crypto banks will onboard millions of new users into the world of crypto. That’s how crypto goes mainstream!” – Really pragmatic crypto expert in his first crypto bull market

    The problem of course, is that crypto banks don’t actually exist in the world of crypto, but in a nicely furnished entry lounge, or when markets are down – in the exit parking lot. Centralized crypto lenders are in the business of peddling DeFi products, but its foundational building blocks aren’t on blockchain infrastructure. 

    In other words, a crypto bank’s promise of yields is fundamentally an off-chain, unverified claim that users have to take on faith. You’re missing the point of Web3.

    And these off-chain delights have off-chain ends.

    After Voyager and 3AC, Celsius is the third to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection this week. A court filing this week shows Celsius’ liabilities of $5.5B, of which 85% ($4.7B) is owed to users.

    But not before closing the entirety of its ~$800M debt across Compound, Aave, Maker and other dapps to release its collateralized loans. We don’t know if users will get back their money from Celsius, and if so how much, but lawyers and courts (not smart contracts) will decide. You can argue in a court of law, but not in the smart contract world of DeFi.

    Su Zhu helps StarkWare launch its token

    This one here’s a bit of a merry-go-round. It begins with longstanding rumors of a StarkWare token for its Layer-2 platform StarkNet.

    As seen from the past month’s chaos, we know that 3AC had a slice of everything crypto-related, and that includes a share of the StarkWare token allocation set aside for investors.

    But 3AC is now in the gutter, and allyourassetsarebelongtoliquidators, including that share.

    Apparently, the liquidators failed to “exercise StarkWare’s token purchase offer” before a 5th July deadline and “has caused the Company to lose substantial value”. You know, similar to how 3AC lost substantial value of its clients holdings. In any case, that’s what it took to break Zhu’s five week Twitter silence, and he isn’t happy.

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    StarkWare’s surprise is ruined but the candles are still lit. What are they to do? I guess, sing the song and blow it out, but in a way which very blatantly does not acknowledge the elephant in the room.

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    The StarkNet token will be used for governance, staking and the network’s transaction fees (in contrast to other L2s like Optimism where ETH is still used for gas). 10 billion tokens have been minted off-chain and will go live in September. Here’s what the split looks like:

    Some observations:

    • A 49.9% allocation to insiders is pretty hefty (Optimism’s was 36%).
    • The tokens are minted off-chain, which makes it hard for potential tokenholders to discern the value of the token and how much whales control.
    • In terms of a potential airdrop, only 9% (900M) under Community Provisions might go towards it (Community Rebates don’t count). The StarkWare community isn’t happy (see here, here and here) with what seems to be perceived as a largely centralized token distribution for insiders and a paltry airdrop for the community.

    Is ETH a security?

    Michael Saylor thinks so:

    “I think Ethereum is a security, I think it’s pretty obvious, […] it was issued by an ICO, theres a management team, there was a pre-mine, there’s a hard fork, there’s continual hard forks, there’s a difficulty bomb that keeps getting pushed back.”

    If Saylor’s right, that has dramatic regulatory implications for ETH. Traditionally, U.S. law determines a security through the Howey Test, which qualifies something as a security if there’s an “investment of money in a common enterprise with a reasonable expectation of profits to be derived from the efforts of others”.

    The Ethereum foundation has gone to great lengths to distinguish ETH not as a securities offering and a profit-oriented stock, but as a kind of commodity good, a resource fuel (gas) to run applications on its blockchain, and that has set the de-facto standard for how ICOs are perceived by investors and regulators. As Camila Russo chronicles in The Infinite Machine:

    The framing… that ether was a product with a specific functionality, opened the door for a whole new way of raising money. Now startups would be able to get funding from anyone who wanted to contribute, all over the world, under what seemed like a safe haven. They weren’t selling securities. These weren’t shares in any company. They didn’t give out dividends that depended on the company’s revenue and investors didn’t have any rights. They were selling digital tokens, made to be used inside these platforms. They were selling utility tokens.

    Bitcoiners’ attempt to frame proof-of-stake networks as securities fixate on the more active “managerial” aspect of the network, so it lends easily to a “profit motive” then a “securities” conclusion. But of course, Bitcoin itself undergoes substantial network development, most notably the SegWit upgrade in 2017 and more recently Taproot last year.

    So is ETH a capital asset (security), a consumable commodity (gas), or a store-value-value like gold/Bitcoin? Bankless has argued that it’s all three. But it’s frankly an endless debate of semantics.

    Web3 News Roundup

    Polygon week

    Big week for Polygon.

    First, Polygon has been selected as one of six companies to participate in a Disney Accelerator program that represents the media conglomerate’s efforts to break into the Web3 world of NFTs. In the official press release:

    “The Disney Accelerator kicks off this week, connecting the 2022 class with the creativity, imagination, and expertise of Disney. Over the course of the program, each participant company will receive guidance from Disney’s senior leadership team, as well as a dedicated executive mentor.”

    Polygon is the only Layer-2 platform selected, and MATIC has jumped ~27% since the announcement.

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    Second, support for MATIC deposits and withdrawals are now live on Robinhood.

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    Third, Aave’s decentralized social media Lenstube is launching, on top of – you guessed it – the Polygon mainnet. Check it out.

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    Launch of NFT marketplaces

    More hot launches this week. sudoAMM by sudoswap is a new on-chain NFT marketplace that lets users automate their NFT transactions along a price curve in a liquidity pool.

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    GameStop NFT is another non-custodial NFT marketplace built on the Ethereum L2 Loopring.

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    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/16/2022 – 14:30

  • "We Are Not Slaves": Farmers In Italy, Spain, & Poland Join Dutch Protests
    “We Are Not Slaves”: Farmers In Italy, Spain, & Poland Join Dutch Protests

    Farmers in Italy, Spain and Poland have joined Dutch farmers in protest of ‘green’ government regulations that will decimate the industry by forcing them to reduce their use of nitrogen fertilizer compounds.

    We are not slaves, we are farmers,” said Italian farmers, who drove tractors through the streets of Milan and blocked city traffic.

     According to the Morning Star, “Italian farmers face an imminent crisis due to a severe drought that has seen a third of agricultural produce placed at risk.”

    The country’s agricultural minister Steafano Patuanelli told parliament earlier this week that Italy faces a further 40 per cent loss of water resources in the coming decades.

    Farmers say they have lost around €3 billion as a result of the emergency and are being hit hard by rising fuel prices with costs rocketing as a result of the conflict in Ukraine.

    In Spain, farmers in Badajoz, Granada and Albacete paraded their tractors down the street in solidarity with the foreign farmers, as well as national protests at home over a lack of food and gasoline, according to EuroWeekly News.

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    And in Poland, farmers came to Warsaw last weekend to protest against inflation and other government actions.

    The protests have led to empty supermarket shelves in the Netherlands, as tractors and other agricultural machinery have blocked warehouses, preventing their shipment – a move which Prime Minister Mark Rutte has mobilized state police against in an attempted crackdown.

    In short:

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    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/16/2022 – 14:00

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 16th July 2022

  • Is A US-Russia War Becoming Inevitable?
    Is A US-Russia War Becoming Inevitable?

    Authored by Pat Buchanan,

    At the NATO summit in Madrid, Finland was invited to join the alliance. What does this mean for Finland?

    If Russian President Vladimir Putin breaches the 830-mile Finnish border, the United States will rise to Helsinki’s defense and fight Russia on Finland’s side.

    What does Finland’s membership in NATO mean for America?

    If Putin makes a military move into Finland, the U.S. will go to war against the world’s largest nation with an arsenal of between 4,500 and 6,000 battlefield and strategic nuclear weapons.

    No Cold War president would have dreamed of making such a commitment — to risk the survival of our nation to defend territory of a country thousands of miles away that has never been a U.S. vital interest.

    To go to war with the Soviet Union over the preservation of Finnish territory would have been seen as madness during the Cold War.

    Recall: Harry Truman refused to use force to break Joseph Stalin’s blockade of Berlin. Dwight Eisenhower refused to send U.S. troops to save the Hungarian freedom fighters being run down by Soviet tanks in Budapest in 1956.

    Lyndon B. Johnson did nothing to assist the Czech patriots crushed by Warsaw Pact armies in 1968. When Lech Walesa’s Solidarity was smashed on Moscow’s order in Poland in 1981, Ronald Reagan made brave statements and sent Xerox machines.

    While the U.S. issued annual declarations of support during the Cold War for the “captive nations” of Central and Eastern Europe, the liberation of these nations from Soviet control was never deemed so vital to the West as to justify a war with the USSR.

    Indeed, in the 40 years of the Cold War, NATO, which had begun in 1949 with 12 member nations, added only four more — Greece, Turkey, Spain and West Germany.

    Yet, with the invitation to Sweden and Finland to join as the 31st and 32nd nations to receive an Article 5 war guarantee, NATO will have doubled its membership since what was thought — certainly by the Russians — to have been the end of the Cold War.

    All the nations once part of Moscow’s Warsaw Pact — East Germany, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria — are now members of a U.S.-led NATO — directed against Russia.

    Three former republics of the USSR — Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania — are now also members of NATO, a military alliance formed to corral and contain the nation to which they had belonged during the Cold War.

    Lithuania, with 2% of Russia’s population, has just declared a partial blockade of goods moving across its territory to Kaliningrad, Russia’s enclave on the Baltic Sea.

    To Putin’s protest, Vilnius has reminded Moscow that Lithuania is a member of NATO.

    It is a dictum of geostrategic politics that a great power ought never cede to a lesser power the ability to draw it into a great war.

    In 1914, the kaiser’s Germany gave its Austrian ally a “blank check” to punish Serbia for its role in the assassination of the Archduke Francis Ferdinand, heir to the Austrian throne. Vienna cashed the kaiser’s check and attacked Serbia, and the Great War of 1914-1918 was on.

    In March 1939, Neville Chamberlain issued a war guarantee to Poland. If Germany attacked Poland, Britain would fight on Poland’s side.

    Fortified with this war guarantee from the British Empire, the Poles stonewalled Hitler, refusing to talk to Berlin over German claims to the city of Danzig, taken from her at the 1919 Paris Peace Conference.

    On Sept. 1, 1939, Hitler attacked and Britain declared war, a war that lasted six years and mortally wounded the British Empire.

    And Poland? At Yalta in 1945, Winston Churchill agreed that a Soviet-occupied Poland should remain in Stalin’s custody.

    Putin is a Russian nationalist who regards the breakup of the USSR as the greatest calamity of the 20th century, but he is not alone responsible for the wretched relations between our countries.

    We Americans have played a leading role in what is shaping up as a Second Cold War, more dangerous than the first.

    Over the last quarter-century, after Russia dissolved the Warsaw Pact and let the USSR break apart into 15 nations, we pushed NATO, created to corral and contain Russia, into Central and Eastern Europe.

    In 2008, neocons goaded Georgia into attacking South Ossetia, provoking Russian intervention and the rout of the Georgian army.

    In 2014, neocons goaded Ukrainians into overthrowing the elected pro-Russian regime in Kyiv. When they succeeded, Putin seized Crimea and Sevastopol, for centuries the home base of Russia’s Black Sea fleet.

    In 2022, Moscow asked the U.S. to pledge not to bring Ukraine into NATO. We refused. And Putin attacked. If Russians believe their country has been pushed against a wall by the West, can we blame them?

    Americans appear dismissive of dark Russian warnings that rather than accept defeat in Ukraine, the humiliation of their nation, and their encirclement and isolation, they will resort to tactical nuclear weapons.

    Is it really wisdom to dismiss these warnings as “saber-rattling”?

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/15/2022 – 23:40

  • Researchers At Hong Kong University Discover New Enzyme That May Help Obese People Feel Full And Stop Eating
    Researchers At Hong Kong University Discover New Enzyme That May Help Obese People Feel Full And Stop Eating

    Researchers have discovered a new enzyme that may help overweight people “feel full” and stop eating. 

    The team, at Hong Kong Baptist University, discovered the enzyme “that plays an important role in the process of sating appetite”, according to the SCMP. They then published their findings in the journal Nature Metabolism.

    The team said that drugs could be developed that target the enzyme specifically and may help with weight loss. Dr Xavier Wong and Professor Bian Zhaoxiang were the pair that discovered the MT1-MMP protein.

    In China, obesity has caught up to to the US: the SCMP notes that more than half a billion people in the country are overweight and 16.4% are obese. 30% of people in Hong Kong aged 15 to 84 were obese, the report also notes. 20% were overweight. 

    The enzyme may help people who have trouble regulating their own dietary habits as a result of their losing their sense of satiety. It can also “regulate satiety signals in the brain to help regulate food intake,” the report said. 

    Scientists from the University of Hong Kong, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, the University of Texas and the University of Helsinki also played a role on the global research team that discovered the enzyme.

    In studies, the doctors created obese mice with depleted MT1-MMP. Their food consumption was 10% less and they gained 50% less weight than a group of control mice. The study also showed that obese mice displayed increased MT1-MMP activity, SCMP reported. 

    As we noted above, the study comes at a time when obesity rates are on the rise.

    “This has to do with eating and physical habits. People are more inactive, live a sedentary lifestyle with no exercise. During the Covid-19 pandemic, people stayed home most of the time,” concluded Professor Martin Wong, a non-communicable disease expert at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/15/2022 – 23:20

  • Deborah Birx's Guide To Destroying A Country From Within
    Deborah Birx’s Guide To Destroying A Country From Within

    Authored by Michael Senger via ‘The New Normal’ Substack,

    Part of the fun of reading Snake Oil: How Xi Jinping Shut Down the World is that you get to put yourself in the dictator’s shoes. In the book, Xi is an allegory for the Chinese Communist Party in the 21st century. Xi’s “lines” break up the writing with dark humor, a satirical jab at western elites’ blasé attitude toward an advanced, totalitarian regime with overtly-manipulative goals. The book invites you to see through the bad guy’s eyes and imagine just how easy it was to subvert the free world into totalitarianism using the response to a perfectly banal virus.

    Alas, to that end, my book has been upstaged by the work of Deborah Birx, White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator, one of the “Trifecta” of three leading officials behind Covid lockdowns in the United States. Virtually every page of Birx’s monstrosity of a book, Silent Invasion, reads like a how-to guide in subverting a democratic superpower from within, as could only be told through the personal account of someone who was on the front lines doing just that.

    Notably, though Birx’s memoir has earned relatively few reviews on Amazon, it’s earned rave reviews from Chinese state media, a feat not shared even by far-more-popular pro-lockdown books such as those by Michael Lewis and Lawrence Wright.

    The glowing response from Chinese state media should come as no surprise, however, because every sentence of Birx’s book reads like it was written by the CCP itself. Chapter 1 opens with what she claims was her first impression of the virus.

    I can still see the words splashed across my computer screen in the early morning hours of January 3. Though we were barely into 2020, I was stuck in an old routine, waking well before dawn and scanning news headlines online. On the BBC’s site, one caught my attention: “China Pneumonia Outbreak: Mystery Virus Probed in Wuhan.”

    Indeed, as recounted in Snake Oil, that BBC article, which was posted at approximately 9:00 AM EST on January 3, 2020, was the first in a western news organization to discuss the outbreak of a new virus in Wuhan. Apparently, Birx was scanning British news headlines just as it appeared. What are the odds!

    Birx wastes no time in telling us where she got her philosophy of disease mitigation, recalling how she immediately thought Chinese citizens “knew what had worked” against SARS-1: Masks and distancing.

    Government officials and citizens across Asia knew both the pervasive fear and the personal response that had worked before to mitigate the loss of life and the economic damage wrought by SARS and MERS. They wore masks. They decreased the frequency and size of social gatherings.Crucially, based on their recent experience, the entire citizenry and local doctors were ringing alarm bells loudly and early. Lives were on the line—lots of them. They knew what had worked before, and they would do it again.

    Birx spends countless pages tut-tutting the CCP for its “cover-up” of the virus (though Chinese state media apparently didn’t mind, as they gushed about her book anyway), which is funny because then she tells us:

    On January 3, the same day the BBC piece ran, the Chinese government officially notified the United States of the outbreak. Bob Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, was contacted by his Chinese counterpart, George F. Gao.

    Note, January 3 is also the same day the hero whistleblower Li Wenliang was supposedly admonished by authorities for sending a WeChat message about a “cover-up” of the outbreak. So on the same day Li was “admonished,” the head of China’s CDC literally called US CDC Director Robert Redfield to share the exact same information Li supposedly shared.

    Off to a strong start. But from here, Birx’s abomination of book only gets worse. Much worse.

    A page later, she tells us how traumatized she still is at seeing all those videos of Wuhan residents collapsing and falling dead in January 2020, and praises the “courageous doctor” who shared them online.

    The video showed a hallway crowded with patients slumped in chairs. Some of the masked people leaned against the wall for support. The camera didn’t pan so much as zigzag while the Chinese doctor maneuvered her smartphone up the narrow corridor. My eye was drawn to two bodies wrapped in sheets lying on the floor amid the cluster of patients and staff. The doctor’s colleagues, their face shields and other personal protective equipment in place, barely glanced at the lens as she captured the scene. They looked past her, as if at a harrowing future they could all see and hoped to survive. I tried to increase the volume, but there was no sound. My mind seamlessly filled that void, inserting the sounds from my past, sounds from other wards, other places of great sorrow. I had been here before. I had witnessed scenes like this across the globe, in HIV ravaged communities— when hospitals were full of people dying of AIDS before we had treatment or before we ensured treatment to those who needed it. I had lived this, and it was etched permanently in my brain: the unimaginable, devastating loss of mothers, fathers, children, grandparents, brothers, sisters.

    Staring at my computer screen, I was horrified by the images from Wuhan, the suffering they portrayed, but also because they confirmed what I’d suspected for the last three weeks: Not only was the Chinese government underreporting the real numbers of the infected and dying in Wuhan and elsewhere, but the situation was definitely far more dire than most people outside that city realized. Up until now, I’d been only reading or hearing about the virus. Now it had been made visible by a courageous doctor sharing this video online.

    As a reminder, Birx’s book was published in April 2022. The videos Birx is recalling were all proven fake by the spring of 2020.

    In the next paragraph, Birx tells us how she grew even more determined after seeing that the Chinese had built a hospital in 10 days to fight the virus.

    Dotting it were various pieces of earth-moving equipment, enough of them in various shapes and sizes that I briefly wondered if the photograph was of a manufacturing plant where the newly assembled machines were on display. Quickly, I learned that the machines were in Wuhan and that they were handling the first phase of preparatory work for the construction of a one-thousand-bed hospital to be completed in just ten days’ time… The Chinese may not have been giving accurate data about the numbers of cases and deaths, but the rapid spread of this disease could be counted in other ways—including in how many Chinese workers were being employed to build new facilities to relieve the pressure on the existing, and impressive, Wuhan health service centers. You build a thousand-bed hospital in ten days only if you are experiencing unrelenting community spread of a highly contagious virus that has eluded your containment measures and is now causing serious illness on a massive scale.

    This hospital construction, again, was proven fake literally days after Chinese state media posted it.

    So just to recap, here we have Deborah Birx—the woman who did more than almost any other person in the United States to promote and prolong Covid lockdowns, silencing anyone who disagreed with her, to the incessant praise of mainstream media outlets—telling us she’d been inspired by all those images of Wuhan residents falling dead and constructing a hospital in 10 days, and still didn’t realize they were fake two years after they’d been proven fake.

    And that’s just Chapter 1.

    Birx then spends hundreds of pages recounting her clandestine political maneuvers—from the day she stepped foot in the White House—to get as much of America as possible to stay in lockdown for as long as possible, without making it look like a “lockdown.”

    At this point, I wasn’t about to use the words lockdown or shutdown.If I had uttered either of those in early March, after being at the White House only one week, the political, nonmedical members of the task force would have dismissed me as too alarmist, too doom-and-gloom, too reliant on feelings and not facts. They would have campaigned to lock me down and shut me up.

    Birx proudly recalls using “flatten-the-curve guidance” to manipulate the President’s administration into consenting to lockdowns that were stricter than they realized.

    On Monday and Tuesday, while sorting through the CDC data issues, we worked simultaneously to develop the flatten-the-curve guidance I hoped to present to the vice president at week’s end. Getting buy-in on the simple mitigation measures every American could take was just the first step leading to longer and more aggressive interventions. We had to make these palatable to the administration by avoiding the obvious appearance of a full Italian lockdown. At the same time, we needed the measures to be effective at slowing the spread, which meant matching as closely as possible what Italy had done—a tall order. We were playing a game of chess in which the success of each move was predicated on the one before it.

    Never mind that this kind of manipulation by a presidential advisor is probably not legal. Birx doubles down, inadvertently admitting where that arbitrary number “ten” came from for her guidance as to the size of social gatherings, while admitting her real goal was “zero”—no social contact of any kind, anywhere.

    I had settled on ten knowing that even that was too many, but I figured that ten would at least be palatable for most Americans—high enough to allow for most gatherings of immediate family but not enough for large dinner parties and, critically, large weddings, birthday parties, and other mass social events.… Similarly, if I pushed for zero (which was actually what I wanted and what was required), this would have been interpreted as a “lockdown”—the perception we were all working so hard to avoid.

    Birx divulges her strategy of using federal advisories to give cover to state governors to impose mandates and restrictions.

    The White House would “encourage,” but the states could “recommend” or, if needed, “mandate.” In short, we were handing governors and their public health officials a template, a state-level permission slip they could use to enact a specific response that was appropriate for the people under their jurisdiction. The fact that the guidelines would be coming from a Republican White House gave political cover to any Republican governors skeptical of federal overreach

    Then, Birx recalls with delight as her strategy led the states to shut down one by one.

    [T]he recommendations served as the basis for governors to mandate the flattening-the-curve shutdowns. The White House had handed down guidance, and the governors took that ball and ran with it…With the White House’s “this is serious” message, governors now had “permission” to mount a proportionate response and, one by one, other states followed suit. California was first, doing so on March 18. New York followed on March 20. Illinois, which had declared its own state of emergency on March 9, issued shelter-in-place orders on March 21. Louisiana did so on the twenty-second. In relatively short order by the end of March and the first week of April, there were few holdouts. The circuit-breaking, flattening-the-curve shutdown had begun.

    All that’s missing is the maniacal laugh.

    In what may be the most damning quote of the entire US response to Covid, in one paragraph, Birx tells us that she’d always intended “two weeks to slow the spread” as a lie and immediately wanted those two weeks extended, despite having no data to show why that was necessary.

    No sooner had we convinced the Trump administration to implement our version of a two-week shutdown than I was trying to figure out how to extend it. Fifteen Days to Slow the Spread was a start, but I knew it would be just that. I didn’t have the numbers in front of me yet to make the case for extending it longer, but I had two weeks to get them. However hard it had been to get the fifteen-day shutdown approved, getting another one would be more difficult by many orders of magnitude.

    This is one of several quotes in which Birx refers to “our version” of a lockdown, though she never makes it clear what the original “version” of a lockdown is. As a matter of fact, though Birx spends hundreds of pages boasting about her scorched-earth crusade for lockdowns across America, she never once explains why she wanted this or why she felt it was a good idea, other than some brief asides about China’s supposed success using social distancing during SARS-1.

    Birx’s apparent plan to almost singlehandedly destroy the world’s primary democratic superpower is going swimmingly until she meets the book’s leading antagonist: Dr. Scott Atlas. To Birx’s disgust, Atlas takes a strong stand for all the things she loathes most—things like human rights, democratic governance, and, most of all, freedom.

    Birx lists Atlas’s “dangerous assertions”:

    That schools could open everywhere without any precautions (neither masking nor testing), regardless of the status of the spread in the community.

    That children did not transmit the virus.

    That children didn’t get ill. That there was no risk to anyone young.

    That long Covid-19 was being overplayed.

    That heart-damage findings were incidental.

    That comorbidities did not play a critical role in communities, especially among teachers.

    That merely employing some physical distance overcame the virus’s ill effects.

    That masks were overrated and not needed.

    That the Coronavirus Task Force had gotten the country into this situation by promoting testing.

    That testing falsely increased case counts in the United States in comparison with other countries.

    That targeted testing and isolation constituted a lockdown, plain and simple, and weren’t needed.

    That every word of Atlas’s assertions was obviously 100% true only made them all the more dangerous. As Alexandr Solzhenitsyn said, “One word of truth shall outweigh the whole world,” and nothing would derail the world’s communist destiny faster than letting these self-evident truths spread freely.

    In particular, CNN’s Sanjay Gupta was a key component of my strategy… He specifically spoke about a mild disease—another way to describe silent spread. I saw this as a sign that he got it. As a doctor himself, he could see what I was seeing. He could serve as a very good outside-government spokesperson, echoing my message that family members and others they were in close contact with could unknowingly bring the virus home, resulting in a catastrophic and deadly event.

    Birx frequently emphasizes her fixation with the concept of “asymptomatic spread.” In her mind, the less sick a person is, the more “insidious” they are:

    Asymptomatic, presymptomatic, and even mildly symptomatic spread are particularly insidious because, with these, many people don’t know they are infected. They may not take precautions or may not practice good hygiene, and they don’t isolate.

    As Scott Atlas recalls in his own book, A Plague Upon Our House:

    Birx commented on the importance of testing asymptomatic people. She argued that the only way to figure out who was sick was to test them. She memorably exclaimed, “That’s why it’s so dangerous—people don’t even know they’re sick!” I felt myself looking around the room, wondering if I was the only one who had heard this.

    Birx spends roughly the next 150 pages of her book recalling her anguish as Atlas thwarted her plans to keep America in a near-permanent state of lockdown. As Atlas recalls:

    She threw a fit, right there, in front of everyone, as we stood near the door before leaving the Oval Office. She was furious, screaming at me, “NEVER DO THAT AGAIN!! AND IN THE OVAL!!” I felt pretty bad, because she was so angry. I had absolutely no desire for conflict. But did she actually expect me to lie to the president, just to cover up for her? I responded, “Sorry, but he asked me a question, so I answered it.”

    Indeed, Birx’s memoir corroborates the testimony in Atlas’s book of the outsized role he played in bringing lockdowns in the United States to an end. More than anything, this involved standing up to Birx who, contrary to popular belief, did more than even Fauci to promote and prolong lockdowns across the United States. As Atlas explains:

    Dr. Fauci held court in the public eye on a daily basis, so frequently that many misconstrue his role as being in charge. However, it was really Dr. Birx who articulated Task Force policy. All the advice from the Task Force to the states came from Dr. Birx. All written recommendations about their on-the-ground policies were from Dr. Birx. Dr. Birx conducted almost all the visits to states on behalf of the Task Force.

    Unlike the vast majority of our leaders and institutions, Atlas did not shrug this responsibility, and for that, our entire nation owes him a special thanks. I vividly recall reading Atlas’s articles in early 2020, correctly predicting that “The COVID-19 shutdown will cost Americans millions of years of life,” a rare light in that dark, dystopian period.

    Still, I don’t want to give anyone in this story too much credit. How is it possible that the woman who did more than any other person to shut down the United States doesn’t know that all those videos from Wuhan were fake, two years after FBI Director Christopher Wray publicly stated, on July 7, 2020:

    We have heard from federal, state, and even local officials that Chinese diplomats are aggressively urging support for China’s handling of the COVID-19 crisis. Yes, this is happening at both the federal and state levels. Not that long ago, we had a state senator who was recently even asked to introduce a resolution supporting China’s response to the pandemic.

    What has the FBI been doing this whole time? As Atlas recalls:

    Seema laughingly related that she was frantically looking around as the usual outlandish nonsense was being put forth, knowing that I would have been the one to push back.

    Then she got to the point. “Scott, we need to get rid of Birx. She is a disaster! She keeps saying the same things over and over; she’s incredibly insecure; she doesn’t understand what’s going on. We need to eliminate her moving forward.”

    Well no wonder Birx was “insecure.” She’d just spent the better part of a year in the White House orchestrating unprecedented crimes against humanity on her own people. These lockdowns ultimately killed tens of thousands of young Americans while failing to meaningfully slow the spread of the coronavirus everywhere they were tried. Whether she did so wittingly or unwittingly, it’s absolutely unseemly that no one around her put a stop to it.

    Atlas recalls being baffled as to why Birx had ever been appointed to her role in the first place:

    I also asked how she had been appointed—that seemed to be a bit of a mystery to everyone. I was told by Jared, more than once, “Dr. Birx is 100 percent MAGA!”—as if that should make all the other issues somehow less important. Secretary Azar denied appointing her during his stint running the Task Force. I was told by the VP’s chief of staff, Marc Short, that Pence “inherited her” when he took over as chair of the Task Force. No one seemed to know.

    Jared Kushner’s reaction is ironic, given Birx’s later admission that she “had a pact with medical bureaucrats—Anthony Fauci, Robert Redfield, Stephen Hahn and perhaps others—that all would resign if even one were removed by then-President Donald Trump.” Democrats in Congress are now defending Birx from scrutiny for the role she played in lockdowns in the United States.

    As it turns out, Birx was not “100% MAGA.” She wasn’t even 10% MAGA.

    Now, I’m not saying Deborah Birx is a CCP agent. I’m just saying that if she was an agent for Xi Jinping’s stated goal of gradually stripping the world of “independent judiciaries,” “human rights,” “western freedom,” “civil society,” and “freedom of the press,” then every word of her book would read like that of Silent Invasion. If she did do it, this is how it would have happened.

    But in researching this topic for over two years, few things have made my hair stand on end more than the clues Birx gives about the man who did appoint her to her role. This man, who will be the subject of my next deep dive, is a little-known, clean-cut, Mandarin-fluent intelligence operative who arguably played a greater role than even Fauci or Birx in bringing China’s totalitarian virus response to the United States, acting as a direct liaison between Chinese scientists and the White House on key items of pseudoscience including asymptomatic spread, universal masking, and remdesivir: Matthew Pottinger.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/15/2022 – 23:00

  • "This Year Was Quiet" – Aspen Mansion Market Cools
    “This Year Was Quiet” – Aspen Mansion Market Cools

    The luxury market appears to be cooling as soaring interest rates, stock market turmoil, elevated inflation, and threats of a recession put a damper on demand. 

    “We’ve definitely had the first true off-season since Covid,” Jennifer Banner, a broker at Christie’s International Real Estate Aspen Snowmass, told Bloomberg, referring to the residential property market in Aspen, Colorado. 

    “Over the last two years, it was busy through May and June. This year it was quiet,” Banner said. 

    “Overall, it seems there are some signs the market is weakening a little bit, but not enough to draw any conclusions,” Karen Setterfield, co-founder of Aspen brokerage Setterfield & Bright, said. 

    According to a new report from Douglas Elliman, Aspen’s single-family-home market is tiny, with approximately 28 listings in June. The resort town was in high demand during the virus pandemic as wealthy folks fled large metro areas to mountainous regions. 

    Tim Estin, a broker with Aspen Snowmass Sotheby’s International Realty, said the barriers to entry into Aspen for a single-family home was nearly $12mln in June. 

    Some of Aspen’s Mansions are listed on Zillow. 

    The Elliman report showed that signed contracts for single-family homes in June plunged 71.4% year over year, with new listings increasing 33.3%. 

    “The market hasn’t flipped as much as it’s slowed down,” Stephen Kotler, Douglas Elliman’s chief executive officer of brokerage for the Western region, said. 

    “We’re still going to see [signed] contracts, but it won’t be at 2021 levels, maybe it will be closer to 2019 or 2020,” Kotler said. 

    Even though a large majority of Aspen properties are paid in cash, macro-economic uncertainty appears to have triggered a slowdown in mansions across the resort area. 

    “I think we’re going to see a leveling off of the kinds of price increases we saw in the last two years,” said Banner, “but we knew those were unsustainable. I don’t think we’re going to see a major drop in prices.”

    The problem with Aspen is the housing market is so small that it would only take a few property owners to panic sell and cause gyrations.

    Last week, Wells Fargo Investment Institute warned about a recession underway, while Guggenheim and Nomura Securities say a downturn is expected later this year. The question remains what will cause further uncertainty among the wealthiest that they would need to liquidate their Aspen mansions. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/15/2022 – 22:40

  • The Physics Of Freedom
    The Physics Of Freedom

    Authored by J. Peder Zane via RealClear Politics (emphasis ours),

    Freedom is our Founding Fathers’ greatest gift.

    Since 1776, that single word has been the compass and measure of the human experiment the world calls America. Whatever disparate, sometimes far-flung ideologies they may embrace, all who celebrate or bemoan our past, present, and future ground their claims and critiques in that single word. At heart, we are ever asking: How free are we? When you imagine all the other ideas those men in powdered wigs might have made our identity and obsession, freedom – which feels so hopeful, open-ended, and optimistic – seems the most salubrious of choices.

    And yet, perhaps because the concept is so fundamental and familiar, we rarely ask a central question: What is freedom? We assume we truly know its meaning. But do we? Freedom has become like the operating systems that power our computers and the world – something the vast majority of us rely on, take for granted, without really understanding what it is and how it works. I believe that some, but not all, of our divisions are rooted in the lack of clear understanding of this guiding ideal.

    In this short space, I want to describe a definition of freedom that is more accurate and hence more useful than the common understandings rooted in politics because it is based in the timeless laws of physics. This scientific lens, which is based on the work of Adrian Bejan, the celebrated professor of mechanical engineering at Duke University with whom I wrote the 2012 book “Design in Nature,” allows us to see freedom more fully and more accurately, in all its power and glory.

    Start with the common understandings. The New Oxford American Dictionary defines freedom as “the power or right to act, speak, or think as one wants without hindrance or restraint.” Other meanings include “the state of not being imprisoned or enslaved,” and “the power of self-determination attributed to the will.”

    Clear enough, so what’s the problem? These definitions offer a cramped and limited view of freedom, casting it as a human creation, as an idea that chiefly applies to the relations among people. Sure, we might say butterflies are free, that the time spent in the mountains – or even pants with an elastic waist – feel freeing, but those are metaphorical uses of a political concept. Ever since the ancient Greeks, freedom has concerned people.

    Through hundreds of peer-reviewed papers and dozens of books, Bejan discovered that freedom is far more expansive. It is not a human concept but a physical reality.

    The life of butterflies, and everything around us, hinges on freedom. He summarized this insight in a powerful statement he first articulated in 1995 and which he calls the constructal law. It states:

    For a finite-size flow system to persist in time (to live), it must evolve with freedom in such a way that it provides easier access to the imposed currents that flow through it.

    I know that’s a mouthful, but the idea is simple: Everything on our planet that moves – water on the ground, blood in our bodies, money through economies – constitutes a system composed of the current (water, blood, money) and channels they flow through (rivers, arteries, economies). Given the freedom to move and to change, these flow systems evolve with a specific direction in time, to move more current (or mass) more easily.

    To see how, consider the first raindrops that fell to earth. In the beginning they were isolated entities. But soon they began to coalesce because it was easier to move or flow together. Over millions of years, these unthinking, inanimate molecules carved out rivulets, brooks, streams and rivers. Today, these tree-like river basins cover the globe, moving water from the plain to the ocean’s mouth far more efficiently than if the raindrops had been destined to seep by their lonesome.

    Through his own extensive research and that of collaborators around the globe, Bejan has shown how the constructal law predicts the emergence and evolution of the designs that give shape and structure to our world. The same principle explains why air coalesces to form jet streams in the sky and why human history is the story of greater and easier movement of people, goods, money and ideas. All self-organize into better channels that allow them to flow more easily across the landscape.

    Why does this happen? We don’t know. Like the laws of thermodynamics – which predict that hot should move to cold, that matter should be conserved – the constructal law is a first principle of physics that summarizes an observable and universal phenomenon: the tendency of matter to generate evolving designs that increase flow access. There is no mechanism behind it; it is an uncaused cause.

    It all hinges on freedom: the freedom of flowing matter to generate evolving. It is the secret sauce of nature. Our planet evolved from a fiery molten ball into a wondrous sphere of oceans and rivers, mountains and forests, cities and air transport systems because of the freedom of everything that moves to generate designs that allow them to flow more easily. Bejan put it this way to me: “Freedom is many physical (measurable) features that allow an observed object to change. No freedom, no change. No change, no evolution. No evolution, no life. Freedom is physics—biological and nonbiological—and so is evolution, nature, and life.”

    As I am writing for RealClearPolitics, the question remains: If freedom is not an exclusively human creation, how does physics change the way we should think about politics?

    First, it shows us the limits of the common understanding of freedom as a fixed set of outcomes – as a chiseled-in-stone set of laws and practices against which human behavior must be measured. Don’t get me wrong, it is good to have ideals. But while they tell us where we might want to go, they do not tell us how to get there. This common understanding falsely assumes that ideas like freedom are simply things that we choose to embrace or reject. When we ask, for example, why democracy didn’t flourish in Russia after the fall of communism or in the Middle East during the Arab Spring, our answers revolve around the failings of leaders and the led.

    The constructal law provides a better answer by showing that politics is anchored in physical realities – in the evolving systems through which ideas and laws, rights and practices move from the centers of power to the people and vice versa. In developed democracies such as the United States, the rule of law, the concepts of “one person one vote,” free and fair elections, and a free press are just a few of the “currents” that move through the designs of a democracy. These currents and channels cannot be simply imposed in one fell swoop; they must evolve, over time, building on what was, like the raindrops that gradually created the mighty river basins from the tiniest rivulets.

    In assessing political systems, the central question is not, how free is it compared to some utopian ideal, but to what extent does it permit or restrict the freedom of people, ideas, goods, money, and all the rest to self-organize into designs that allow those things to move more easily?

    Bejan, who grew up in Romania under communism, notes that dictatorships are doomed to failure because they are not just fighting the people, but physics. Censorship, coercion, and intimidation are the tools they use to constrain the tendency of everything in nature – which includes people – to flow more freely.

    Finally, the physics of freedom should give us a new appreciation of the Founding Fathers. Their greatest gift to us was not the rights enshrined in the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution but a political system that was truly free – one that could evolve, get better. Those who see our past as a golden age are as misguided as those who view our history as a series of moral failures. America truly is a great experiment because our capacity for change means we never are, but are always becoming. In freedom.

    J. Peder Zane is an editor for RealClearInvestigations and a columnist for RealClearPolitics.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/15/2022 – 22:20

  • Satellite Image Reveals China Blew Up Mock Japan Warplane Amid Taiwan Invasion Fears
    Satellite Image Reveals China Blew Up Mock Japan Warplane Amid Taiwan Invasion Fears

    There’s increasing concern a possible Chinese annexation of Taiwan would fundamentally challenge Japan’s security and result in a broader conflict. 

    The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) understands an invasion of Taiwan would likely result in conflict with Japan because only 110 kilometers (68 miles) is Japan’s westernmost inhabited island of Yonaguni. 

    Japanese leaders have linked Taiwan’s security with Japan’s, enabling the country to play a role in Taiwan’s defense. As a result, the PLA launched a missile(s) at mock Japan Self-Defense Forces (SDF) aircraft in a desert area in northwest China called Xinjiang, according to Nikkei, citing a report from Planet Labs. 

    Nikkei examined photos taken by Planet Labs, a U.S.-based satellite operator. Photographs of the same location in mid-May showed an object shaped like an E-767, an airborne warning and control system (AWACS) used by the SDF, a runway and buildings resembling a tarmac. A July 13 photo shows the destroyed object, along with debris and black burn marks.

    Previous satellite photographs showed the object was still in place as of July 2. The precise timing is not clear because of weather conditions that prevented photography on some days, but it appears that the object was destroyed in early July. It is the first time that an object mimicking an SDF aircraft is known to have been destroyed. -Nikkei

    “I think we can safely conclude this was a test of a ballistic missile of some sort,” said Jeffrey Lewis, professor at Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey and a specialist in the military analysis of satellite photos, referring to what appears to be a mock Boeing E-767 AWACS used by SDF. 

    Tom Shugart, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, also reviewed the images and concluded a missile might have been used: 

    “If the purpose of the mock target was to test the ability of a missile warhead to recognize and strike specific high-value aircraft, and that capability was in fact tested successfully, then deployment of such a weapon could improve the PLA’s ability to strike key aircraft like the E-767.” 

    It’s unclear precisely what the PLA used to target the mock AWACS or surrounding aircraft. Kiyofumi Iwata, former chief of staff of the Japan Ground SDF, said there are no impact craters, suggesting the “AWACS object may have been set ablaze, rather than hit by a missile.” 

    PLA forces also built a mock U.S. Navy aircraft carrier and two Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers last year in the same desert area for weapons testing. Nikkei said the “aircraft carrier was found to have marks that experts said were made by missile impacts.” 

    If an invasion of Taiwan is planned, it seems China recognizes that Japan and the U.S. could be drawn into the fight. That’s why China and Russia aligned and conducted a joint military exercise last month between the island of Yonaguni and Taiwan. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/15/2022 – 22:00

  • 'Very Unfavorable' Political Scenario Appears To Be Taking Shape For Democrats
    ‘Very Unfavorable’ Political Scenario Appears To Be Taking Shape For Democrats

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    An unfavorable midterm election scenario is taking shape for Democrats as inflation and gas prices remain exceptionally high as some left-wing news outlets appear to be turning on the Biden administration, according to analysts and pollsters.

    President Joe Biden delivers remarks on reproductive rights as (L-R) Vice President Kamala Harris, and Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra listen during an event at the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, on July 8, 2022. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

    A recent New York Times survey posted on the paper’s front page Monday suggested that Democrat voters are turning against Biden. Only about 25 percent said they wanted him to be the presidential nominee in 2024. Meanwhile, the NY Times and other left-wing outlets have increasingly published articles suggesting that the president not run for reelection.

    Democrats haven’t done things they promised,” Connor Farrell, a strategist who founded the Democrat-aligned group Left Rising, told The Hill on Tuesday. “In this environment, the best general election candidates will be bold [ones] that can distinguish themselves from what we’re getting from the White House.”

    Democratic leadership should look no further than the fact that they need to wake up and step up to the plate,” Jon Reinish, managing director at the political strategy firm Mercury, told the website. He did not elaborate what that might entail.

    Democrats, he added, are “not just losing Independents or you know, Never-Trump Republicans,” but “they’re losing their own voters. Democrats’ own voters don’t feel as if their leaders hear their concerns.”

    “I don’t want to sound overly pessimistic, but I’m not holding out hope that Biden’s approval rating can improve all that much. Gas prices have started to drop, but inflation remains high, and survey after survey shows that Americans are principally concerned with their economic situation. Another [Federal Reserve] rate hike is on its way, which isn’t bound to make things better in the short term for voters,” Democrat strategist Jessica Tarlov told Fox News this week.

    And an article released by pollster Gallup, citing its own polling data, declared that the 2022 election indicators suggest Democrats are facing a significant uphill battle.

    “However, 2022 is not shaping up to be an average year. Rather, as of May, Gallup finds presidential job approval and three other key national mood indicators well below the historical averages measured in past midterm election years. On their own, those numbers would all predict a greater-than-average loss of seats for the Democratic Party this fall,” Gallup said last month.

    Typically, the party of the president tends to lose seats in the midterm elections, and Democrats have narrow majorities in both the Senate and House.

    Economy

    Surveys released in recent days indicate that Americans have a generally negative outlook of the direction the United States is heading and have a bleak outlook on the economy amid historically high gas prices and high inflation. Auto club AAA’s data shows that while gas prices have dropped over the past three weeks, the average price still stands at $4.65 per gallon as of Tuesday.

    Gas prices are advertised at a Chevron station as rising inflation and oil costs affect the consumers in Los Angeles, Calif., on June 13, 2022. (Lucy Nicholson/Reuters)

    Although some Democrat-aligned consultants, including James Carville, have suggested recently that the midterms are still several months away, Gallup said that if Biden’s job approval rating increases, “he would be bucking the trend for second-year presidents. Historically, presidents’ job approval ratings have rarely improved in the last few months before their first midterms.” As such, it rated Democrats’ chances as “very unfavorable” headed to November.

    Republicans have said that the Biden administration’s policies are the primary reason why inflation and gas prices remain high, noting that the president last year signed executive orders that blocked new oil drilling leases, suspended the Keystone XL pipeline, and ended some fossil fuel subsidies. In response, Biden and Democrats have pinned the blame on oil companies, the Russian government, and even consumers for not buying electric vehicles.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/15/2022 – 21:40

  • Russia Building Laser Weapon To 'Soft Kill' US Spy Satellites
    Russia Building Laser Weapon To ‘Soft Kill’ US Spy Satellites

    Russia is developing a new anti-satellite weapon that could soon disrupt Western spy satellites flying over its territory. 

    The Space Review published a new report indicating “strong evidence that a space surveillance complex in Russia’s northern Caucasus is being outfitted with a new laser system called Kalina that will target optical systems of foreign imaging satellites flying over Russian territory.” 

    Construction of the Kalina project began in 2011. In a 2014 financial document, Kalina’s stated purpose was to “create a system for the functional suppression of electro-optical systems of satellites” using high-powered laser pulses.

    Another document from 2017 described Kalina as a “laser system for electro-optical warfare” and said it was a special quantum-optical system” being developed by the Rosatom state corporation.

    Kalina can permanently blind optical sensors on satellites, and this is different than other laser weapons known as “dazzlers,” which can temporarily blind optic systems). 

    Russia’s desire to target satellites via a so-called ‘soft kill’ approach is a much different strategy than launching an anti-satellite missile, as it recklessly did in November 2021, knocking a defunct satellite out of orbit and, in return, generating 1,500 pieces of space junk.

    The report said, “the project has suffered numerous delays, but recent Google Earth imagery shows that construction is now well underway.” 

    News of Russia’s next-gen laser weapon comes as Space X CEO Elon Musk has said his company could launch more satellites than Western adversaries can shoot down. It seems like the Kalina project could soon challenge Musk’s satellite constellation via low-cost beams of light rather than costly missiles, making it cheaper and easier for Moscow to take down more satellites. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/15/2022 – 21:20

  • Court Blocks Biden Admin From Punishing Unvaccinated Air Force Members
    Court Blocks Biden Admin From Punishing Unvaccinated Air Force Members

    Authored by Beth Brejle and Mimi Nguyen Ly via The Epoch Times,

    A federal district court in Ohio has temporarily blocked the Biden administration from enforcing the COVID-19 vaccine mandate on thousands of U.S. Air Force service members who remain unvaccinated after having opposed the shot on religious grounds but have had their religious exemption applications denied.

    U.S. District Court Judge Matthew McFarland, who was appointed by former President Donald Trump in late 2019, issued a temporary restraining order filed on Thursday preventing the Biden administration from taking any action for at least 14 days against any Air Force member who opted not to take the COVID-19 vaccine.

    The judge’s ruling also grants the case “class status,” which means the temporary restraining order will grant relief to all members of the Air Force who submitted a religious accommodation request from the COVID-19 vaccine mandate from Sept. 1, 2021, to the present, and were confirmed via the Air Force Chaplains as having a sincerely held religious belief, but had their requests denied or not yet acted upon. Plaintiffs had contended that such a class would include over 12,000 airmen.

    The action stems from a case filed in February 2022 challenging the Biden administration’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate. Plaintiffs comprise 18 active-duty members of the Air Force serving at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Ohio; Hurlburt Field in Florida; Randolph Air Force Base in Texas; and Dobbins Air Reserve Base in Georgia, plus all similarly affected members.

    “The court has already granted a preliminary injunction to our 18 original plaintiffs,” an attorney in the case, Tom Bruns of Siri & Glimstad law firm, told The Epoch Times. “The court has now granted a class certification—and that’s kind of the historic moment—Air Force-wide, service-wide, it covers every member of the Air Force. And now he’s saying, ‘Why shouldn’t I grant the preliminary injunction to all those folks?’”

    McFarland wrote in his order (pdf) in granting the class status: 

    “They face separation from the Air Force and other disciplinary measures. A single injunction would provide relief to the entire class. Indeed, the main purpose of a [lawsuit class] is to provide relief through a single injunction or declaratory judgment. Because Defendants have uniformly maintained a policy of overriding Airmen’s religious objections to the COVID-19 vaccine, they have acted ‘on grounds that apply generally to the class.’

    “Moreover, the class definition requires that a Chaplain certify that the airman’s religious beliefs are sincerely held. Finally, a single injunction would provide the proposed class with the relief they seek from the harm they stand to suffer.”

    McFarland gave Air Force officials until July 21 to file a response “identifying why this Court should not grant a class-wide preliminary injunction.” He also gave plaintiffs an opportunity to then file a response by July 25.

    According to data from the Air Force, as of July 11, over 6,800 service members have been denied religious accommodation requests. Only 104 have had their applications approved. Meanwhile, 834 members have been “administratively separated” by the force. According to the figures, 97.1 percent of the Air Force has been fully vaccinated, and 0.1 percent has been partially vaccinated.

    Nurse and Army veteran Renee Langone administers a Moderna COVID-19 vaccine to U.S. Air Force (active duty reservist) Dr. Pei-Chun McGregor at the West Roxbury VA Medical Center in Boston, Mass., on Dec. 23, 2020. (Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images)

    McFarland’s order came in the nick of time for some airmen. Many have received notices in the last week, with a date of their final day, an airman at Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska told The Epoch Times.

    The Air Force wanted the airmen’s cases heard individually, but in his decision allowing class status, McFarland noted how the Air Force did not consider each case individually when denying religious accommodation requests.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/15/2022 – 21:00

  • Manhattan Rents Soar To New Record Amid Inflation Storm
    Manhattan Rents Soar To New Record Amid Inflation Storm

    Manhattan apartment rents jumped again in June on a relentless climb into uncharted territory. A combination of low supply, soaring interest rates, and increasing demand implies leasing activity will keep climbing through August and push median average rents in the city well over the $4,000 mark. 

    Bloomberg reports new data from appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate that shows average apartment rents in Manhattan topped $4,050, a new record high. It was an increase of $50 over May when prices breached the $4,000 mark for the first time. Prices from a year ago are up a whopping 25%. Average rents for most-expensive units topped $5,000 for the first time, the firms said in the report. 

    Rents are smashing records and will increase further this month and August, mainly because of seasonal flows. 

    Julia Segal, leasing director at the brokerage firm Compass, said rising mortgage rates had sparked housing affordability issues that increased the number of renters in a market with limited inventory. 

    “Interest rates rising is certainly turning some buyers into renters,” Segal said, “and that’s increasing the renter pool.”

    The report shows apartment listing times on the market slid from 52 days in May to 50 in June — a year before, listed apartments sat for 87 days.

    Supply remains very tight across the borough. The vacancy rate a year ago was around 12% and has since plunged to 2%. High demand and tight supply are other reasons for summer rent price acceleration. 

    We noted in mid-April “Not A Peak” – Manhattan Apartment Rents Hit Another Record High and correctly pointed out how prices would soar this summer. 

    Rising rents in NYC is not an isolated problem — it’s a nationwide crisis as consumer prices in June jumped to another 40-year high. Focusing on housing costs, shelter inflation +5.61%, up from 5.61%, highest since 1992, and rent inflation +5.78%, up from 5.22%, highest since 1986.

    And what’s worse is real wages continue to slump for the 15th month in a row as Americans’ purchasing power is wiped out in the inflation storm. 

    Rising rent, gas, and food costs are squeezing working-poor households to a near-breaking point — where millions of people are on the verge of eviction

    The rising risk of a recession could offer consumers relief with a downshift in prices. Still, there’s a caveat: increasing job loss

    One positive development is a prediction by Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel, who believes rent prices could cool in September. He noted price declines might come with a recession. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/15/2022 – 20:40

  • China Refinery Throughput Falls For First Time In 10 Years
    China Refinery Throughput Falls For First Time In 10 Years

    By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

    Chinese refineries’ throughput fell for the first time in more than a decade during the first half of the year, by 6 percent to 13.4 million bpd.

    In June alone, processing rates were higher than in May, but some 10 percent lower than the all-time high reached last year in June, Reuters said in a report citing official data.

    Oil imports also fell in June, according to data from energy analytics firm OilX—by 1.6 million bpd to 9.2 million bpd.

    On an annual basis, OilX analysts noted, the June average was about 1 million bpd lower than what China imported in crude oil in June 2021. They noted, however, that despite the recent series of lockdowns because of Covid flare-ups, China’s oil imports were remarkably stable over the past few months.

    Chinese oil production rose during the first half of the year, by 4 percent from a year ago, with the daily average at 4.15 million bpd. In June, domestic output hit an all-time high of 4.18 million bpd.

    Refinery runs have suffered from Covid restrictions since the start of the year as Beijing maintained its zero-Covid policy and by fuel export restrictions the government has imposed on refiners.

    The Covid restrictions have also dampened domestic demand for fuels, but analysts expect a pick-up in refinery runs in the current quarter as the government considers making amendments to its Covid policy and steps up infrastructure spending to boost economic growth. Gasoline and jet fuel demand were the worst affected by the Covid restrictions.

    According to an earlier Reuters report, Beijing plans to set up a $75-billion infrastructure spending fund to stimulate growth. China booked GDP growth of 0.4 percent for the second quarter of the year, far below analyst expectations because of the worst outbreak of Covid since 2020 in the country.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/15/2022 – 20:20

  • The $100 Trillion Global Economy In One Chart
    The $100 Trillion Global Economy In One Chart

    Surpassing the $100 trillion mark is a new milestone for global economic output.

    Visual Capitalist’s Avery Koop has covered this topic in the past when the world’s GDP was $88 trillion (2020) and then $94 trillion (2021), and now according to the latest projections, the IMF expects the global economy to reach nearly $104 trillion in nominal value by the end of 2022.

    Although growth keeps trending upwards, the recovery that was expected in the post-pandemic period is looking strained. Because of recent conflicts, supply chain bottlenecks, and subsequent inflation, global economic projections are getting revised downwards.

    Global annual GDP growth for 2022 was initially projected to be 4.4% as of January, but this has since been adjusted to 3.6%.

    Note: This data from the IMF represents the most recent nominal projections for end of year as of April 2022.

     Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a broad indicator of the economic activity within a country. It measures the total value of economic output—goods and services—produced within a given time frame by both the private and public sectors.

    The 50 Largest Economies in the World

    The United States is still the economic leader worldwide, with a GDP of $25.3 trillion—making up nearly one quarter of the global economy. China follows close behind at $19.9 trillion. Here’s a look at the top 10 countries in terms of GDP:

     

    The frontrunner in Europe is Germany at $4.3 trillion, with the UK coming in second place. One significant change since the last reported figures is that Brazil now cracks the top 10, having surpassed South Korea. Russia falls just outside, in 11th place, with a GDP of $1.8 trillion.

     

    While China’s GDP growth has slowed in recent years, projections still indicate that the country will overtake the U.S. by 2030, dethroning the world’s economic leader.

    One region also expected to experience growth in the near future is the Middle East and North Africa, thanks to higher oil prices—Iraq and Saudi Arabia in particular are leading this charge. Regional GDP growth in the area is expected to be around 5% in 2022.

    The 50 Smallest Economies in the World

    Some of the world’s smallest economies were hit particularly hard by the pandemic, and have subsequently been the most affected by the inflation and food supply shortages resulting from the war in Ukraine.

    Here’s a look at the countries worldwide with the lowest GDP in 2022:

     

    The smallest economy in the world measured in the IMF rankings is Tuvalu at $66 million. Most of the bottom 50 are considered low- to middle-income and emerging/developing countries. According to the World Bank, in developing countries, the level of per capita income in 2022 will be about 5% below the pre-pandemic trends.

     

    Some countries are actually projected to experience negative GDP growth this year, particularly emerging and developing economies in Europe.

    For example, Russia is expected to experience a GDP growth rate of -8.5% in 2022, though it still remains to be seen how the cost of war and increasingly harsh global sanctions impact the country’s economic prospects.

    Inflation, Stagflation, Recession – How Bad is it?

    While global economic growth has already been revised downwards, it’s possible the situation could be even more serious. Organizations like the World Bank say that risks of stagflation are rising. Stagflation, which hasn’t occurred since the 1970s, is defined as an economy that’s experiencing rising inflation combined with a stagnant economic output.

    Currently, global consumer inflation is currently pegged at 7%. Daily goods are becoming increasingly difficult to purchase and interest rates are on the rise as central banks worldwide try to control the situation. As recent events in Sri Lanka demonstrate, low-income countries are particularly at risk to economic volatility.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/15/2022 – 20:00

  • House Democrats Pass Measure To Identify 'Neo-Nazis' In Military, Law Enforcement
    House Democrats Pass Measure To Identify ‘Neo-Nazis’ In Military, Law Enforcement

    Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

    House Democrats on July 13 voted to add an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), the annual military spending bill, to identify “neo-Nazis” in the military and law enforcement.

    The NDAA amendment was sponsored by Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.) and instructs the FBI, Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and Department of Defense (DOD) to publish a report analyzing “white supremacist and neo-Nazi activity” within military and law enforcement.

    The amendment passed in a 218–208 vote where it faced unilateral opposition from Republicans.

    “Such behavior, such extremism is a threat to us in all segments of society. There is no reason to believe that our military is any different,” Schneider said on the House floor late on the evening on July 13 in defense of the amendment.

    “These are exceptions,” Schneider insisted. “They are rare, but we must do everything we can to identify them and to thwart them before risks become a reality.”

    If the amendment is passed by the Senate, the FBI, DHS, and DOD would be required within 180 days to send Congress a report on the number of people discharged from either military service or law enforcement for “white supremacist” or “neo-Nazi” ideology.

    House Republicans opposed the amendment, which they said was overly intrusive and “denigrates” law enforcement.

    This amendment attempts to create a problem where none exists by requesting investigations into law enforcement and the armed services for alleged rampant white supremacist or white national sympathies,” one such critic, Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), said in opposition to the amendment on the House floor.

    This is not the first effort by Democrats to pass such a measure, and similar measures have faced condemnation by Republicans in the past for trying to impose “thought police” on military service members and law enforcement officers.

    ….

    In a reference to George Orwell’s “1984,” Sen Rand Paul said the new departments created by the bill would have essentially been the “thought police” of the military.

    “Congressional Democrats have gotten so extreme, so radical, so out of touch with the American people that when they read it, they think this is something worthwhile to do,” he said.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/15/2022 – 19:40

  • US And Russia To Resume Space Flights To International Space Station
    US And Russia To Resume Space Flights To International Space Station

    Despite the war in Ukraine and Washington’s mission to crush Moscow with sanctions, NASA astronauts and Russian cosmonauts will resume flights to the International Space Station (ISS), Insider Paper reports. 

    “To ensure continued safe operations of the International Space Station, protect the lives of astronauts and ensure continuous US presence in space, NASA will resume integrated crews on US crew spacecraft and the Russian Soyuz, NASA said in a statement.

    NASA said astronaut Frank Rubio would join cosmonauts on a Soyuz rocket to the ISS on September 21 from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. 

    The announcement comes amid a massive leadership shakeup in Russia’s state-owned space corporation, Roscosmos. A short communique published via the Kremlin on Friday said Dmitry Rogozin is out as director general of Roscosmos and will be immediately replaced by former Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov. 

    Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Rogozi made threats against the West about Russian participation in the ISS (he even threatened to deorbit the ISS). All threats were hollow but further strained space relations between both countries. It’s unknown how Borisov will act toward NASA. 

    “The station was designed to be interdependent and relies on contributions from each space agency to function. No one agency has the capability to function independent of the others,” NASA continued. 

    On Thursday, NASA announced a Russia-US agreement on seat swap flights to the ISS. “The first woman in Russia’s cosmonaut team may embark on her flight aboard the US Crew Dragon spaceship under the seat swap program on September 1,” Russian state-run media TASS said. 

    Space relations between Russia and Western countries have deteriorated since the invasion, though new efforts appear to be underway to fix severed ones and keep a professional arrangement with the Americans to maintain the ISS. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/15/2022 – 19:20

  • Snyder: "The California Dream" Has Become "The California Cesspool"
    Snyder: “The California Dream” Has Become “The California Cesspool”

    Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

    Once upon a time, California was the hottest destination in the entire country.  Millions of young people poured into California in search of a new life, and today it has the largest population of any U.S. state by a very wide margin.  But now “the California Dream” has become “the California Cesspool”, and residents are moving to other states on a permanent basis in very large numbers In fact, at this point a lot of California residents are even choosing to move to Mexico in order to escape the state.  Decades of really bad decisions have turned the Golden State into an endless nightmare, and there appears to be no hope on the horizon.

    Just look at what has happened to San Francisco.  It is one of the wealthiest cities on the entire planet, but everywhere you look there is squalor.

    In recent days, a video that a Twitter user named Ricci Wynne posted of children walking home through “one of the city’s open-air drug dens” has already been watched more than two million times…

    San Francisco children were recorded on video having to walk past what appeared to be one of the city’s open-air drug dens on their way home from school.

    Ricci Wynne posted the video on Twitter last week, writing that the students were getting off the 14 transit line on 8th and Mission Streets when they encountered what appeared to be the homeless encampment sprawled across the sidewalk.

    San Francisco doesn’t have just one open air drug market.

    They can now be found in multiple locations around the city, and the authorities don’t seem interested in cleaning them up.

    So for the children in Wynne’s video, wading through hordes of zombified drug addicts on the way home has just become a part of normal life.

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    Of course it could be argued that things are even worse down in Los Angeles.

    The following is what one reporter encountered during a harrowing visit to Skid Row

    Walking down San Pedro Street to the heart of Skid Row, I see men smoking methamphetamine in the open air and women selling bootleg cigarettes on top of cardboard boxes. Around the corner, a man makes a drug transaction from the window of a silver sedan, a woman in an American-flag bandana flashes her vagina to onlookers, and a shirtless man in a bleached-blond woman’s wig defecates behind a parked police car. Slumped across the entryway of an old garment business, a shoeless, middle-aged junkie injects heroin into his cracked, bare feet.

    The police could easily clear Skid Row at any time.

    But the politicians won’t let them.

    And despite spending hundreds of millions of dollars to fight drug addiction and homelessness, the problem just keeps getting even worse year after year…

    The scale of the crisis is astonishing: 40,000 homeless men and women in Los Angeles County suffer from addiction, mental illness, or both. More than 1,000 will die on the streets this year. As I survey the human wreckage along Skid Row, my fear is that the city government is creating a new class of “untouchables,” permanently disconnected from the institutions of society. For the past decade, political leaders have relied on two major policies to address the crisis—“harm reduction” and “housing first”—but despite $619 million in spending in 2018, more people are on the streets than ever. The reality is that Los Angeles has adopted a policy of containment: construct enough “supportive housing” to placate the appetites of the social-services bureaucracy, distribute enough needles to prevent an outbreak of plague, and herd enough men and women into places like Skid Row, where they will not disrupt the political fiction that everything is okay.

    This is what life is like in big cities all over the west coast now.

    Needless to say, this sort of environment is going to be a breeding ground for crime, and so far this year robbery is up 21 percent in Los Angeles…

    Robbery is up an astounding 21% from ytd 2021 in Los Angeles according to lapdonline.org. Moreover, burglary, a non-violent property crime without the use of weapons, is up 16.2% from ytd 2021 according to lapdonline.org. Unfortunately, businesses and the citizens of the city are at an impasse on how to stem the rising robbery rate.

    The murder rate continues to surge higher as well.  During the first half of 2022, the murder rate in the city was 35 percent higher than it was during the first half of 2020…

    Halfway through the year, murders in Los Angeles are surging on a wave of gun violence, following last year’s spike in crime.

    The city saw 172 homicides through June 18, a 5.5% increase from the same period last year, and a 35% jump from the first half of 2020, according to Los Angeles Police Department data. Four more murders were registered in the past week, Los Angeles Police Department police chief Michel Moore at the commissioners’ meeting Tuesday.

    The politicians in California wanted to create their version of a “liberal utopia” in the state.

    Now they have it.

    Meanwhile, scientists continue to warn us that the clock is ticking.  The entire west coast of the United States sits along “the Ring of Fire”, and a simulation that was just conducted came to the conclusion that a magnitude 7.5 earthquake on the Seattle Fault could potentially produce a giant tsunami that could be over 40 feet tall

    A simulation released by the Washington State Department of Natural Resources (DNR) shows the impact of a 7.5-magnitude earthquake on the Seattle Fault.

    “Tsunami waves could be as high as 42 feet at the Seattle Great Wheel and will reach inland as far as Lumen Field and T-Mobile Park,” Washington State DNR said in a tweet Thursday.

    To put that in perspective, the tsunami that hit Fukushima, Japan many years ago was only about 45 feet tall at the peak.

    And if such an event does occur, residents of Seattle would have “fewer than 3 minutes” to react…

    Scientists found that if a magnitude 7.5 earthquake were to occur on the Seattle Fault, tsunami waves over 40 feet tall could reach the Seattle area in fewer than 3 minutes.

    We are being told that such an event will happen someday.

    It is just a matter of time.

    Personally, I have been warning for years about the potential for a colossal tsunami along the California coastline.

    The entire west coast is extremely vulnerable, but most people that live there don’t like to think about such things.

    Instead, most people that live there are just going to keep doing what they are doing, and then one day everything will suddenly change in a single moment.

    *  *  *

    It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/15/2022 – 19:00

  • Stagflation Keeps Making A Fool Out Of Paul Krugman
    Stagflation Keeps Making A Fool Out Of Paul Krugman

    How many times can an Ivy League economist be wrong before they have to turn in their diploma and their Nobel Prize and move on to a job better suited for them, such as food service management?  Apparently in the world of establishment economics the best path to success is to fail upwards; Paul Krugman is the proof.

    Outside of financial circles the majority of people don’t know or care who Krugman is, but it’s a mistake to dismiss his influence within the mainstream media and politics.  You will hear many of his arguments repeated by human parrots when you least expect it.  His faulty narratives and illogical conclusions tend to spread into regular dinner table conversation in the weirdest ways.

    His best known terrible prediction is perhaps his internet prophecy.  In 1998 he predicted that the growth of the web would ‘slow drastically’ and would have little overall meaning for the global economy, comparing the internet to the fax machine in terms of relevance.  This might seem like a harmless fail today, but the problem is not the prediction, it’s the fact that Krugman consistently proves that he is arrogant enough to venture wild analysis on subjects he has zero understanding of.  This is a characteristic that has followed him around for most of his career. 

    Another habit of Paul Krugman is his propensity to flip-flop on every economic issue so that when the consequences of events become readily clear he then searches through his backlog of hundreds of contradictory editorials and contradictory comments to find the one prediction that fits the bill; he then proclaims himself the great prognosticator of crisis or recovery depending on whatever happens first.  

    His very limited mentions of the possibility of a “housing bubble” in articles published in 2006/2007 conflicted greatly with his unicorn optimism on stocks going to the moon.  When the housing bubble imploded, he declared that he predicted the whole thing.  In truth, his analysis was a joke while others like Ron Paul and Peter Schiff had outlined in great detail exactly what would happen to the housing market years in advance.  All Krugman did was vaguely predict a “slowdown” at some point; he never predicted the epic worldwide credit disaster that actually occurred.

    Krugman went on to champion an endless array of bailouts, stimulus packages, QE and near zero interest rates in response to the credit crisis.  Keynesians only have one answer to every economic problem, which is government spending and central bank fiat printing ad nauseum.  Krugman even suggested that the initial bailouts of 2008/2009 were “too small” and argued in favor of trillions more.  He was not aware at the time, but a GOA audit of the early bailouts, pursued only because of the relentless efforts of Ron Paul, would reveal that the Federal Reserve had actually created over $16 trillion from thin air.

    It is actually the Keynesian arrogance (or perhaps malice?) of central bankers and economists like Krugman that led directly to the stagflationary crisis we are witnessing right now.  While supply chain issues certainly abound, the US was suffering from rising prices well before the covid pandemic or the war in Ukraine and resulting sanctions on Russia.  

    In fact, these events act more like a fog or cover for the REAL cause of inflation, which is a decade of fiat printing by central banks in classic Keynesian fashion.  The $6 trillion-plus in covid stimulus in 2020 was nothing more than the straw that broke the camel’s back.  

    Krugman is partly culpable.  This might be the reason why he refused to acknowledge the stagflation threat for years despite mounting evidence, calling price inflation “transitory” until the end of 2021.  Then he flip-flopped as usual and noted the “possibility” that prices might stay high and that he might be wrong.  This was only after ridiculing many analysts in the alternative economic sphere for sticking by their inflation predictions.  

    Inflation/stagflation often takes time to circulate through an economy and register in a way that noticeably affects the public.  In the 1970s, the process took around 10 years to culminate.  It grew exponentially until the early 1980s when Paul Volcker finally hiked interest rates to around 20%, crushing many businesses in the process.  Because America has enjoyed the rise of the dollar as the world reserve currency since that time, trillions in fiat stimulus was not an immediate threat because those dollars were sure to circulate into the coffers of numerous foreign banks and stay overseas.  Now, the dollar’s reserve status is in decline, more and more greenbacks are staying within circulation in the US, there are more and more dollar’s chasing less and less goods and the party is finally over.  

    A week ago Krugman once again put his foot in his mouth.  After admitting that he was wrong on stagflation, he flip-flopped, stating that the ‘stagflation narrative is collapsing’ and dismissed concerns about higher prices.  And, as always he attacked other economists, saying they were just ‘propping up’ a threat that’s in reversal.

    Krugman’s claim was that the Fed’s 75 bps rate hike along with falling stocks was an indicator that inflation was over.  He refused to even entertain the idea of stagflation, which is a combination of rising prices and declines in other sectors of the economy including GDP and employment.  Krugman’s flip-flop was built on a naive understanding of inflation/stagflation and what it entails.  For him, plunging stocks mean deflation, and being a Keynesian, deflation cannot be tolerated.  

    Then, the CPI print came in on Wednesday and made Krugman look rather foolish, with official inflation numbers hitting 9.1% and new 40 year highs, well above market expectations (and Krugman’s expectations).  Krugman refused to admit defeat, saying that 9.1% inflation was not much to be worried about.

    His argument?  That the CPI print is “outdated” because of recent declines in stocks and gasoline.  This is the same idiotic narrative regurgitated by Joe Biden and the White House recently.  If CPI had come in lower than last month, would Krugman and Biden be shaking their heads and telling the public that the numbers are “outdated” and not a reflection of the real situation?  No.  They would be crowing on the mountain tops and demanding praise.  They would be ignoring the fleeting circumstances of stocks or gas prices instead of hyperfocusing on them.

    But what is reality?

    CPI is actually a rigged statistic designed to downplay real inflation rates.  If we were to calculate inflation according to the methods used by the government in the 1970s and 1980s the actual inflation rate would be closer to 17%.  But even if we ignore true inflation, a CPI print of 9.1% is not to be taken lightly.

    Stagflation is a fact according to the spread between rising prices and falling GDP as well as frozen wages.  The only technical factor that is missing is growing unemployment, but that is a situation developing now as job growth slows and more companies announce impending layoffs.  

    Stock markets have little to no bearing on stagflation status (sorry Paul).  Stocks are a TRAILING indicator of economic instabilities that have long been in play, not a leading indicator of what is about to happen in the future.  As for gasoline prices falling, they have barely dipped.  And, this minor dip was probably helped along by Biden once again dumping millions of barrels of oil onto the market from the US strategic reserves.  This is not enough to dismiss stagflation, not by any means.  

    For Krugman, the bigger picture doesn’t exist.  He is only interested in the data of the moment and being right no matter what.  If even one indicator supports his biased position, he will focus on it and ignore hundreds of other indicators that contradict his position.  When his position becomes obviously untenable he shifts stance and acts as if he saw the danger coming all along.  Again, how many times can an economist be wrong or flip-flop on his claims before he is no longer relevant?  It would seem that Krugman’s novelty has worn off and now it’s time for him to hang up his hat. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/15/2022 – 18:40

  • Dog Names Are Racist Too, According To Scholars
    Dog Names Are Racist Too, According To Scholars

    Authored by Terrance Kible via Campus Reform,

    Academics recently applauded a Social Psychology Quarterly study purporting to show a disparity in the time dogs were adopted based on racial associations with the animals’ names.

    “White” names, according to the study, resulted in shorter adoption times compared to “Black” names.

    The correlations were largely concentrated around pit bulls, “a breed that is stereotyped as dangerous and racialized as Black,” according to the study.

    Below are examples of academics’ reactions to the study.

    Temple University

    Timothy Welbeck, director of the Center for Anti-Racism Research and an assistant professor of instruction, retweeted the story, posing the rhetorical question “WhY iS EveRyTHingG aBOuT rACE?”

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    He answers his own question with, “Because everything is about race…”

    Welbeck told Campus Reform that “something as seemingly as [sic] innocuous as dog adoption can have lasting racial implications.”

    University of Texas at Austin

    Assistant Professor of Sociology Chantal Hailey commented in a now-deleted tweet obtained by Campus Reform“Anti-blackness is so pervasive it even expands to dog names.”

    Hailey conducts research “at the intersections of race and ethnicity, stratification, urban sociology, education, and criminology.”

    University of Akron

    “Fascinating research! Amazing idea”, Daniela Jauk-Ajamie tweeted regarding the study, an Assistant Professor of Sociology and Criminal Justice.

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    Jauk-Ajamie’s work focuses on “gardening in incarcerated settings, women in the criminal (in)justice system, and qualitative methods.”

    Georgetown University

    Don Moynihan, professor at Georgetown’s McCourt School of Public Policy, opined that the study was an “[i]nteresting example of how racialized names still evoke bias even when dealing with non-humans.”

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    Moynihan provided comments to Campus Reform, expressing his view that there exists “a relatively sophisticated body of work in this area that needs to be accounted for to understand the contribution.”

    University of Massachusetts Amherst

    Chief Diversity Officer Nef Walker described the study as “Must read work”, and “Fascinating research that supports the resiliency of racialized names and the pervasiveness of antiBlackness [sic].”

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    Walker has written on [t]he intersection of race, gender, and sexual orientation in intercollegiate sports”, and “[h]egemonic masculinity and the institutionalized bias of women in men’s collegiate basketball.”

    Denison University

    Shiri Noy, assistant professor of sociology, applauded the study’s authors for their “cutting edge work”.

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    “[C]ongrats,” she added.

    Campus Reform reached out to all parties mentioned here. This article will be updated accordingly.

    *  *  *

    Follow @terrancekible on Twitter

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/15/2022 – 18:20

  • "Unjustifiable" – Musk Lawyers Move To Delay "Warp Speed" Twitter Trial
    “Unjustifiable” – Musk Lawyers Move To Delay “Warp Speed” Twitter Trial

    Three days after Twitter sued Elon Musk to force him to buy the company, the world’s richest man has responded with a request to delay the “meritless” and “breakneck speed” case until next year.

    Twitter asked the court to expedite the proceedings, requesting a trial by mid-September, citing risks from the recent economic downturn and being held in limbo by a buyer: “to protect Twitter and its stockholders from the continuing market risk and operational harm resulting from Musk’s attempt to bully his way out of an airtight merger agreement.”

    Today, in a 14-page filing, WSJ reports that Musk’s lawyers called Twitter’s request an unjustifiable “bid for extreme expedition.”

    Musk is requesting a Feb. 13, 2023, trial at the earliest, noting Twitter’s request is “an extremely rapid schedule for a case of this enormous magnitude.”

    In Friday’s filing, Mr. Musk’s lawyers said:

    “The core dispute over false and spam accounts is fundamental to Twitter’s value. It is also extremely fact and expert intensive, requiring substantial time for discovery.”

    Mr. Musk’s lawyers argued that “it is unnecessary to resolve these weighty considerations on a breakneck schedule” and asked for a trial date on or after Feb. 13 of next year, adding that the debt financing was valid until April 25, 2023.

    Twitter was rushing to court after “a two-month treasure hunt of delays, technical bottlenecks, evasive answers, and, ultimately, refusals,” Mr. Musk’s lawyers said in the filing.

    They added that Twitter was trying to “shroud the truth” over fake accounts on the service, an issue that Mr. Musk has made central to his desire to pull out of the deal.

    NYTimes reports that, in the legal filing, Mr. Musk’s lawyers reiterated many of the same arguments they had made earlier this month when the billionaire said he intended to terminate the deal. Twitter did not conduct a rigorous count of fake accounts and stymied Mr. Musk’s efforts to understand how spam was tallied, the filing said.

    “In a May 6 meeting with Twitter executives, Musk was flabbergasted to learn just how meager Twitter’s process was,” Musk’s lawyers wrote.

    “Human reviewers randomly sampled 100 accounts per day (less than  0.00005% of daily users) and applied unidentified standards to somehow conclude every quarter for nearly three years that fewer than 5% of Twitter users were false or spam. That’s it. No automation, no AI, no machine learning.”

    Mr. Musk’s side also took issue with other elements of the Twitter suit, including the company’s assertion that the billionaire had disparaged the business he was planning to buy.

    With the sense of humor of a bot, Twitter claims that Musk is damaging the company with tweets like a Chuck Norris meme and a poop emoji. Twitter ignores that Musk is its second largest shareholder with a far greater economic stake than the entire Twitter board,” the filing states.

    The case is Twitter v. Musk, 22-0613, Delaware Chancery Court (Wilmington), and we suspect, given the already boisterous rhetoric, that this is going to be a long and protected legal battle.

    A judge will hear arguments on Tuesday at 11am for Twitter’s request for a September trial.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/15/2022 – 18:13

  • Union-Organizing Surges To Six-Year High
    Union-Organizing Surges To Six-Year High

    Over the first half of 2022, 1,411 American workplaces filed union-organizing petitions with the National Labor Relations Board—the highest mark since 2015, reports the Wall Street Journal

    Out of the workplace petitions filed in the first half, about 400 have voted to approve a union and 150 have shot the idea down. The balance have either withdrawn the petition or have votes still pending. The 400 workplaces that approved unions represent over 21,000 employees.  

    While the petition activity represents a 69% surge over 2021, union membership hovers near historic lows, with only 10.3% of U.S. workers belonging to unions. In 1964, almost 30% did, according to university research cited by the Journal

    Employees have increased leverage in a tighter job market and especially in industries beset by worker shortages. “Tight labor markets certainly are conducive to organizing and to workers having more leverage in general,” UCLA professor Chris Tilly tells the Journal

    The year has brought some high-profile victories for the union movement. In April, workers at a Staten Island Amazon warehouse approved the first-ever union of the retail giant’s employees, by a 55% to 45% vote. Last week, same organizing group—Amazon Labor Union—announced it was backing similar efforts at warehouses in Campbellsville, KY and Albany.  

    Columbia University’s Mark Cohen saw little benefit to the move in Staten Island, calling Amazon a “high disciplined and regimented” business that pays premium wages and solid benefits. “They might be forced to let people work eight hours but those people will make less money,” he told the Associated Press

    Starbucks is another high-profile target of union-organizing efforts. More than 140 of the company’s 9,000 U.S. locations have unionized, with about another 120 petitions filed at other ones. 

    A March employee walkout at a Denver Starbucks (Caleb Alvarado/The Guardian)

    Greater unionization is a mixed bag for American workers as a whole. To the extent unions compel employers to raise wages and accept reduced worker productivity, it discourages additional hiring and encourages investment in automated alternatives to human beings.

    Incumbent, unionized workers may benefit, but at a price paid by what Frédéric Bastiat would describe as the “unseen” workers who are never hired—to say nothing of higher labor costs passed on to society in the form of higher prices. 

    Nonetheless, a 2021 Gallup poll found public fondness for unions had climbed to a 56-year high, with 68% of Americans expressing approval. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/15/2022 – 18:00

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Today’s News 15th July 2022

  • Growing Number Of Spanish Radio Stars Bolt From Station Bought By Soros-Backed Group
    Growing Number Of Spanish Radio Stars Bolt From Station Bought By Soros-Backed Group

    Authroed by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A growing number of hosts are leaving a Spanish-language radio station after it was bought by a group backed by billionaire leftist George Soros.

    Hungarian-born U.S. investor and philanthropist George Soros answers to questions after delivering a speech on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos on May 24, 2022. (Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty Images)

    Nelson Rubio announced his resignation from Radio Mambi on July 12, following Dania Alexandrino and Lourdes Ubieta.

    Radio Mambi “has been the voice of the Cuban exile, the voice of conservative men and women who defend freedom, democracy, family principles, truth, and faith in God,” Rubio said during a press conference in Miami. “Many in this community have felt betrayed by the acquisition of this radio by a company financed by the left liberal extremist, George Soros.”

    Rubio and Ubieta are joining Americano Media, where Alexandrino already had a show.

    Being faithful to my principles I couldn’t accept being part of any business associated with these leftist activists and their socialist agenda,” Alexandrino told reporters.

    Radio Mambi was one of 18 radio stations in 10 cities that was recently purchased by the Latino Media Network from Univision. The stations were said to reach about one-third of U.S. Latinos. The deal was $60 million, all cash, according to the network.

    The network, which did not respond to a request for comment, said its funding came from “leading Latino investors” and Lakestar Finance LLC, an investment entity affiliated with the Soros Fund Management, one of the many entities owned or linked to Soros.

    Lourdes Ubieta. (Courtesy of Americano Media)

    ‘Relevant Content’

    Jess Morales Rocketto, one of the network’s founders, said in a statement that the group “hope[s] to create relevant content for radio and other audio platforms with content that our community can trust and rely on” and “is going to ensure that the Latino community continues to be served with the news and information that local communities deserve.”

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/15/2022 – 02:00

  • What Is The "Council For Inclusive Capitalism"?
    What Is The “Council For Inclusive Capitalism”?

    Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

    The idea that there is an agenda for global government among the financial and political elites of the world has long been called a “conspiracy theory” within the mainstream and the establishment media. And sadly, even when you can convince people to look at and accept the evidence that banking institutions and certain politicians work together for their own purposes, many folks will STILL not entertain the notion that the ultimate goal of these power mongers is one-world empire. They just can’t wrap their heads around such a thing.

    People will say that the establishment is driven by greed alone and that their associations are fragile and based only on individual self interest. They will say that crisis events and shifts in social and political trends are random, not the product of deliberate engineering. They will say that elitists will never be able to work together because they are too narcissistic, etc.

    All of these arguments are a coping mechanism for the public to deal with evidence they cannot otherwise refute. When the facts become concrete and the powers-that-be admit to their schemes openly, some people will revert to confused denial. They don’t want to believe that organized evil on such a scale could actually be real. If it did, then everything they thought they knew about the world might be wrong.

    For many years the agenda for global governance was only whispered about within elitist circles, but every once in a while one of them would speak aloud in public about it. Perhaps out of arrogance or perhaps because they felt the time was right to ease the populace into accepting the possibility. Whenever they did mention it, they called it the “New World Order.” World leaders from George HW Bush to Barack Obama to Joe Biden to Gordon Brown to Tony Blair and beyond have all given speeches talking about the “New World Order.” Money and political elites like George Soros and Henry Kissinger have mentioned the NWO incessantly over the years.

    One of the most revealing quotes on the agenda comes from Clinton Administration Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbot, who stated in Time magazine that:

    In the next century, nations as we know it will be obsolete; all states will recognize a single, global authority… National sovereignty wasn’t such a great idea after all.”

    He adds in the same article a lesser known quote:

    …The free world formed multilateral financial institutions that depend on member states’ willingness to give up a degree of sovereignty. The International Monetary Fund can virtually dictate fiscal policies, even including how much tax a government should levy on its citizens. The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade regulates how much duty a nation can charge on imports. These organizations can be seen as the protoministries of trade, finance and development for a united world.”

    To understand how the agenda works, I offer a quote from globalist and Council on Foreign Relations member Richard Gardner in an article in Foreign Affairs Magazine in 1974 titled ‘The Hard Road To World Order’:

    “In short, the “house of world order” will have to be built from the bottom up rather than from the top down. It will look like a great “booming, buzzing confusion,” to use William James’ famous description of reality, but an end run around national sovereignty, eroding it piece by piece, will accomplish much more than the old-fashioned frontal assault.”

    The “NWO” has since changed names multiple times as the public grows increasingly wise to the conspiracy. It’s been called the Multilateral World Order, the 4th Industrial Revolution, the “Great Reset,” etc. The names change but the meaning is always the same.

    In the past two years in the face of extensive global crisis events the “new order” establishment globalists have been talking about has arrived, and with almost no fanfare or mention in the mainstream media. The beginnings of global government already exist, and it’s called the “Council For Inclusive Capitalism.”

    Lately, many analysts myself included have been highly focused on the World Economic Forum and their role in the global government agenda. Mainly because WEF head Klaus Schwab is such a loudmouth and he can’t help but talk about future plans for centralization.

    As I have noted in past articles, the elites within the WEF got way too excited about the covid pandemic, thinking that they had the perfect crisis to implement numerous globalist policies in the form of the Great Reset. As it turned out, covid was nowhere near as deadly as they initially predicted during Event 201, and the public was not as submissive and compliant as they had hoped we would be. The WEF let the cat out of the bag too soon.

    So, onward we go, with crisis after crisis like dominoes falling until we get to the one event that they think will drive the masses to accept world governance. And while the WEF is regularly attended by top level globalists, they are more of a high level think-tank, the Council for Inclusive Capitalism appears to be about implementation rather than theory.

    The founder of the group is Lynn Forester de Rothschild, member of the infamous Rothschild Dynasty that has long been monetarily involved in influencing governments for generations. Pope Francis and the Vatican publicly aligned with the council in 2020, and one of the primary narratives of the CIC is that all religions must unite with the leaders of capital to build a society and an economy that is “fair for all.”

    This mission statement is rather familiar, as it echoes the goals of the WEF and its concept of the “Shared Economy”: A system in which you will own nothing, have no privacy, borrow everything, be completely reliant on the government for your survival and you will “like it.”

    In other words, the purpose of “inclusive capitalism” is to con the masses into accepting a rebranded version of communism. The promise will be that you won’t have to worry anymore about your economic future, but the cost will be your freedom.

    The CIC is led by a core group of global leaders they refer to as “The Guardians” (No, I’m not joking, this is real).

    Members of the CIC have included: Mastercard, Allianz, Dupont, the UN, the Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association of America (TIAA), CalPERS, BP, Bank of America, Johnson & Johnson, Visa, the Rockefeller Foundation, the Ford Foundation, Mark Carney, the Treasurer of the State of California and many more companies around the world. The list is extensive, but what it represents is a kind of corporate led government with a congress of corporate representatives mixed with pliable political leaders.

    One of the top missions of the CIC has been to change our economic models to “promote equity and inclusion.” Hilariously, proponents of the CIC argue that “too much wealth has been accumulated into the hands of too few people and this proves that existing capitalism does not work, yet THEY are the very people that rigged the system to centralize that wealth into THEIR HANDS. They aren’t “capitalists,” they are an aristocracy. Do you really think that these people are going to build a whole new system that doesn’t continue to benefit them?

    If you have ever wondered why the Pope has been pushing woke ideology, climate alarmism and one world religion rhetoric in conflict with traditional Christian doctrine, this is why – He’s following the dictates of the CIC.

    Another mission of the CIC is to enforce carbon controls and taxation in the name of “climate change” with the purpose of reaching “net-zero” emissions. As we all know, net zero carbon will be impossible without a complete upheaval of our economy and industry, along with the deaths of billions of people in the process. It is an unattainable scenario, which is why it is perfect for the globalists. Humans are the enemy of the Earth, they claim, so we need to let the elites control our every action to ensure we don’t destroy the planet and ourselves, and the process will never end because there will always be carbon emissions to deal with.

    Members of the CIC, including the head of Bank of America, openly suggest that they don’t actually need governments to cooperate in order to meet their goals. They say corporations can implement most social engineering without political aid. In other words, it is the every definition of “shadow government” – A massive corporate cabal that works in tandem to implement social changes without any oversight. As noted, we’ve already seen this with the spread of woke ideology by hundreds if not thousands of corporations working as a hive.

    Is the CIC the final form of global government? No, probably not. But, it is the beginning of it; a government by corporations and money elites for corporations and money elites. It bypasses all political representation, all checks and balances and all voter participation. It is conglomerates and their partners making decisions for our society unilaterally and in a centralized fashion. And, since big business acts as if they are separate from government rather than partners with government, they can claim they are allowed to do whatever they please.

    However, with corporations and globalists increasingly showing their true colors and acting as if they should be in charge, the public must hold them accountable as if they are part of government. And if they are found to be authoritarian and corrupt, they must be overthrown like any other political dictatorship.

    *  *  *

    If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/15/2022 – 00:00

  • Giant Sequoias In Yosemite Threatened By Wildfire
    Giant Sequoias In Yosemite Threatened By Wildfire

    More than 1,000 firefighters are battling a fast-spreading wildfire in Yosemite National Park in California that is threatening giant sequoia trees, which are thousands of years old. 

    The Washburn Fire has burned more than 4,375 acres with 23% containment as of Thursday morning and has spread into the Sierra National Forest. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Washburn Fire Map

    Fire crews are battling the blaze threatening the Mariposa Grove of Giant Sequoias. 

    “The more than 500 mature sequoias of the Mariposa Grove are adjacent to these fuels and have so far avoided serious damage from the Washburn Fire … most of these trees are over 2000 years old,” fire officials wrote in an update.

    On Thursday, temperatures in California’s Sierra Nevada mountains are hot and dry, around 90 degrees Fahrenheit, with low humidity in the 20% to 30% range. These conditions can fuel the flames and may indicate the fire has more to spread. 

    “A persistent weather pattern for the next several days will support active-to-very active fire behavior in heavy dead and down fuels.

    “Continued warming and drying over the next several days will bring additional fire growth and smoke production where control lines have yet to be constructed,” fire officials wrote.

    Garrett Dickman, a forest ecologist with Yosemite National Park, who is helping to protect the giant sequoias that tower more than 200 feet tall, told NYTimes, “the past couple years have been a real wake-up … never thought the giant sequoias would really burn.” 

    Former Abraham Lincoln first protected California’s giant sequoias in 1864 to benefit future generations. 

    In 1905, former President Theodore Roosevelt established several other national parks, monuments, and forests and established the US Forest Service. Roosevelt described the Mariposa Grove of Giant Sequoias as “a temple grander than any human architect could by any possibility build.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/14/2022 – 23:40

  • Escobar: Russia & China Haven't Even Started ZTo Ratchet Up The Pain Dial
    Escobar: Russia & China Haven’t Even Started ZTo Ratchet Up The Pain Dial

    Authored by Pepe Escobar,

    The Suicide Spectacular Summer Show, currently on screen across Europe, proceeds in full regalia, much to the astonishment of virtually the whole Global South: a trashy, woke Gotterdammerung remake, with Wagnerian grandeur replaced by twerking.

    Decadent Roman Emperors at least exhibited some degree of pathos. Here we’re just faced by a toxic mix of hubris, abhorrent mediocrity, delusion, crude ideological sheep-think and outright irrationality wallowing in white man’s burden racist/supremacist slush – all symptoms of a profound sickness of the soul.

    To call it the Biden-Leyen-Blinken West or so would be too reductionist: after all these are puny politico/functionaries merely parroting orders. This is a historical process: physical, psychic and moral cognitive degeneration embedded in NATOstan’s manifest desperation in trying to contain Eurasia, allowing occasional tragicomic sketches such as a NATO summit proclaiming Woke War against virtually the whole non-West.

    So when President Putin addresses the collective West in front of Duma leaders and heads of political parties, it does feel like a comet striking an inert planet. It’s not even a case of “lost in translation”. “They” simply aren’t equipped to get it.

    The “You Ain’t Seen Nothin’ Yet” part was at least formulated to be understood even by simpletons:

    “Today we hear that they want to defeat us on the battlefield, well, what can I say, let them try. We have heard many times that the West wants to fight us to the last Ukrainian – this is a tragedy for the Ukrainian people. But it looks like it’s all coming to this. But everyone should know that, by and large, we haven’t really started anything yet.”

    Fact. On Operation Z, Russia is using a fraction of its military potential, resources and state of the art weapons.

    Then we come to the most probable path ahead in the war theater:

    “We do not refuse peace negotiations, but those who refuse should know that the longer it drags, the more difficult it will be for them to negotiate with us.”

    As in the pain dial will be ratcheted up, slowly but surely, on all fronts.

    Yet the meat of the matter had been delivered earlier in the speech: “ratcheting up the pain dial” applies in fact to dismantling the whole “rules-based international order” edifice. The geopolitical world has changed. Forever.

    Here’s the arguably key passage:

    “They should have understood that they have already lost from the very beginning of our special military operation, because its beginning means the beginning of a radical breakdown of the World Order in the American way. This is the beginning of the transition from liberal-globalist American egocentrism to a truly multipolar world – a world based not on selfish rules invented by someone for themselves, behind which there is nothing but the desire for hegemony, not on hypocritical double-standards, but on international law, on the true sovereignty of peoples and civilizations, on their will to live their historical destiny, their values and traditions and build cooperation on the basis of democracy, justice and equality. And we must understand that this process can no longer be stopped.”

    Meet the trifecta

    A case can be made that Putin and Russia’s Security Council are implementing a tactical trifecta that has reduced the collective West to an amorphous bunch of bio headless chickens.

    The trifecta mixes the promise of negotiations – but only when considering Russia’s steady advances on the ground in Novorossiya; the fact that Russia’s global “isolation” has been proved in practice to be nonsense; and tweaking the most visible pain dial of them all: Europe’s dependence on Russian energy.

    The main reason for the graphic, thundering failure of the G20 Foreign Ministers summit in Bali is that the G7 – or NATOstan plus American colony Japan – could not force the BRICS plus major Global South players to isolate, sanction and/or demonize Russia.

    On the contrary: multiple interpolations outside of the G20 spell out even more Eurasia-wide integration. Here are a few examples.

    The first transit of Russian products to India via the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) is now in effect, crisscrossing Eurasia from Mumbai to the Baltic via Iranian ports (Chabahar or Bandar Abbas), the Caspian Sea, and Southern and Central Russia. Crucially, the route is shorter and cheaper than going through the Suez Canal.

    In parallel, the head of the Iranian Central Bank, Ali Salehabadi, confirmed that a memorandum of interbank cooperation was signed between Tehran and Moscow.

    That means a viable alternative to SWIFT, and a direct consequence of Iran’s application to become a full BRICS member, announced at the recent summit in Beijing. The BRICS, since 2014, when the New Development Bank (NDB) was founded, have been busy building their own financial infrastructure, including the near future creation of a single reserve currency. As part of the process, the harmonization of Russian and Iranian banking systems is inevitable.

    Iran is also about to become a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) at the upcoming summit in Samarkand in September.

    In parallel, Russia and Kazakhstan are solidifying their strategic partnership: Kazakhstan is a key member of BRI, EAEU and SCO.

    India gets even closer to Russia across the whole spectrum of trade – including energy.

    And next Tuesday, Tehran will be the stage for a crucial face-to-face meeting between Putin and Erdogan.

    Isolation? Really?

    On the energy front, it’s only summer, but demented paranoia is already raging across multiple EU latitudes, especially Germany. Comic relief is provided by the fact that Gazprom can always point out to Berlin that eventual supplying problems on Nord Stream 1 – after the cliffhanger return of that notorious repaired turbine from Canada – can always be solved by implementing Nord Stream 2.

    As the whole European Suicide Spectacular Summer Show is nothing but a tawdry self-inflicted torture ordered by His Master’s Voice, the only serious question is which pain dial level will force Berlin to actually sit down and negotiate on behalf of legitimate German industrial and social interests.

    Rough and tumble will be the norm. Foreign Minister Lavrov summed it all up when commenting on the Declining Collective West Ministers striking poses like infantile brats in Bali to avoid being seen with him: that was up to “their understanding of the protocols and politeness.”

    That’s diplo-talk for “bunch of jerks”. Or worse: cultural barbarians, as they were even unable to respect the hyper-polite Indonesian hosts, who abhor confrontation.

    Lavrov preferred to extol the “joint strategic and constructive” Russian-Chinese work when faced with a very aggressive West. And that brings us to the prime masterpiece of shadowplay in Bali – complete with several layers of geopolitical fog.

    Chinese media, always flirting with the opaque, tried to put its bravest face ever depicting the over 5-hour meeting between Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Secretary Blinken as “constructive”.

    What’s fascinating here is that the Chinese ended up letting something crucial out of the bag to slip into the final draft of their report – obviously approved by the powers that be.

    Lu Xiang of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences went through previous readouts – especially of “Yoda” Yang Jiechi routinely turning Jake Sullivan into roasted duck – and stressed that this time Wang’s “warnings” to the Americans were “the sternest one in wording”.

    That’s diplo-code for “You Better Watch Out”: Wang telling Little Blinkie, “just look at what the Russians did when they lost their patience with your antics.”

    The expression ”dead end” was recurrent during the Wang-Blinken meeting. So in the end the Global Times had to tell it like it really is:  “The two sides are close to a showdown.”

    “Showdown” is what End of Days fanatic and Tony Soprano wannabe Mike Pompeo is fervently preaching from his hate pulpit, while the combo behind the senile “leader of the free world” who literally reads teleprompters actively work for the crashing of the EU – in more ways than one.

    The combo in power in Washington actually “supports” the unification of Britain, Poland, Ukraine and The Three Baltic Midgets as a separate alliance from NATO/EU – aiming at “strengthening the defense potential.” That’s the official position of US Ambassador to NATO Julian Smith.

    So the real imperial aim is to split the already shattering EU into mini-union pieces, all of them quite fragile and evidently more “manageable”, as Brussels Eurocrats, blinded by boundless mediocrity, obviously can’t see it coming.

    What the Global South is buying

    Putin always makes it very clear that the decision to launch Operation Z – as a sort of pre-emptive “combined arms and police operation”, as defined by Andrei Martyanov – was carefully calculated, considering an array of material and socio-psychological vectors.

    Anglo-American strategy, for its part, lasers on a single obsession: damn any possible reframing of the current “rules-based international order”. No holds are barred to ensure the perpetuity of this order. This is in fact Totalen Krieg – featuring several hybrid layers, and quite worrying, with only a few seconds to midnight.

    And there’s the rub. Desolation Row is fast becoming Desperation Row, as the whole Russophobic matrix is shown to be naked, devoid of any extra ideological – and even financial – firepower to “win”, apart from shipping a collection of HIMARS to a black hole.

    Geopolitically and geoeconomically, Russia and China are in the process of eating NATOstan alive – in more ways than one. Here, for instance, is a synthetic road map of how Beijing will address the next stage of high-quality development via capital-driven industrial upgrading, focused on optimization of supply chains, import substitution of hard technologies, and “invisible champions” of industry.

    If the collective West is blinded by Russophobia, the governing success of the Chinese Communist Party – which in a matter of a few decades improved the lives of more people than anyone, anytime in History – drives it completely nuts.

    All along the Russia-China watchtower, it’s been not such a long time coming. BRI was launched by Xi Jinping in 2013. After Maidan in 2014, Putin launched the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) in 2015. Crucially, in May 2015, a Russia-China joint statement sealed the cooperation between BRI and EAEU, with a significant role assigned to the SCO.

    Closer integration advanced via the St. Petersburg forum in 2016 and the BRI forum in 2017. The overall target: to create a new order in Asia, and across Eurasia, according to international law while maintaining the individual development strategies of each concerned country and respecting their national sovereignty.

    That, in essence, is what most of the Global South is buying. It’s as if there’s a cross-border instinctual understanding that Russia-China, against serious odds and facing serious challenges, proceeding by trial and error, are at the vanguard of the Shock of the New, while the collective West, naked, dazed and confused, their masses completely zombified, is sucked into the maelstrom of psychological, moral and material disintegration.

    No question the pain dial will be ratcheted up, in more ways than one.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/14/2022 – 23:20

  • "The Damage Could Be Huge": Chinese Banks Tumble, Swept Up In Mortgage Nonpayment Scandal As Borrowers Revolt
    “The Damage Could Be Huge”: Chinese Banks Tumble, Swept Up In Mortgage Nonpayment Scandal As Borrowers Revolt

    On Friday, shares of China’s banks extended their slide to a two-year low amid fears widespread mortgage non-payments would spark contagion within the banking sector (see “China On Verge Of Violent Debt Jubilee As “Disgruntled” Homebuyers Refuse To Pay Their Mortgages“) even after the local banking and insurance regulator said it will maintain continuity and stability of financing policies for the real estate sector.

    China Central Television said on its WeChat page that the regulator will guide financial institutions to participate in risk disposals based on market conditions, after researcher China Real Estate Information Corp. reported that home buyers had stopped mortgage payments on at least 100 projects in more than 50 cities as of Wednesday, spurring concerns that the quality of home loans is in rapid decline and could culminate in a 2007-like credit/housing bubble blow up.

    Still, as Bloomberg Markets Live reporter Ye Xie writes, the grassroots movement of Chinese homebuyers boycotting mortgage payments isn’t exactly akin to the US subprime crisis of 2008.  That said, no matter what Beijing does to address the latest chapter in China’s housing crisis drama, banks are likely to share the burden.

    In the wake of a surging number of homebuyers who refuse to pay mortgages on construction projects that have stalled, China’s banking regulators said Thursday that they are coordinating with other agencies to support local governments in working to ensure the delivery of housing units. Separately, Bloomberg reported that policy makers held emergency meetings with banks to discuss the issue amid concern that it may worsen.

    The boycotts raise the risk of mortgage defaults, a new set of troubles for banks that are already squeezed by exposure to ailing property developers. Mortgages make up almost 20% of total bank loans outstanding, amounting to about 39 trillion yuan ($5.8 trillion).

    In a rather panicked note from Morgan Stanley economist Zhipeng Cai (available to pro subscribers), he addresses the topic of widespread mortgage nonpayment and writes that “we estimate 188mn sqm (1.7mn units) are at risk. We expect local governments will be urged to help completion, but a national bazooka solution remains difficult in near term.”

    His warning: “Non-linearity is the key to watch.”

    To others, however, such as Xie, this is an exaggeration. According to the Bloomberg reporter, “it’s reasonable to argue that this is unlikely the start of something as bad as the US subprime crisis. Unlike lending to developers, mortgages have been regarded as the safest assets on banks’ balance sheets, as Betty Wang, an economist at ANZ, pointed out. Mortgage defaults have been rare, and rising home prices over the years have increased the value of banks’ collateral.”

    Some data: the average non-performing mortgage-loan ratio of the six largest banks, which accounted for 68% of China’s total home loans, was only 0.38% in 2021, compared with an NPL ratio of 2.73% for developers, according to Wang’s calculations.

    Of course, all of this assumes that the current mortgage-boycott movement can be quickly nipped in the bud. If not, the potential damage could be huge. Nomura’s economist Lu Ting and his colleagues estimated that about 4.4 trillion yuan worth of mortgages made between the end of 2020 and March of 2022 may be tied to those home projects that have been stalled or slow in being built.

    Understandably, Chinese banks have gotten hammered in recent days. The CSI bank index fell more than 4% over the past two days to the lowest since March 2020. Their price-to-book ratio has dropped to an all-time low of 0.61, suggesting investors believe a significant part of the banking system’s assets are impaired.

    At the same time, the CSI 300 Financials Index slipped as much as 1.2% on Friday, and is set for an 11th session of declines. Of course, the worse it gets, the more likely Beijing will have no choice but to unleash a powerful releveraging bazooka, even if it has to do so kicking and screaming.

    Indeed, as Xie correctly concludes, “the government is likely to step in sooner rather than later as the mortgage boycotts start to undermine social stability. Either banks have to chip in to provide cheap funds for developers to complete projects, or they have to allow homebuyers to delay their payments. Neither is an attractive option.”

    What is the worst case scenario? Here we go back to the “non-linearity kicking in” case suggested by Morgan Stanley:

    Home-buyer confidence weakens further from a low starting point, leading to further deterioration in property sales. This may force more developers, even relatively strong ones today, to suspend unfinished projects, furthering the downtrend. In the meantime, housing prices may continue to fall, exacerbating the downward spiral. Furthermore, the stress in the housing sector could spread to the broader economy, given the extensive inter-sector linkages, while being magnified by the financial system.

    In short: a self-reinforcing downward cascade which ends in either a historical crash of the world’s largest asset…

    … or a state bailout. Here are the two most likely policy responses according to Morgan Stanley:

    • Damage control: Local governments will likely be called upon to mobilize resources on a by-project basis, possibly with the help of SOEs and LGFVs, to kick-start suspended projects, signaling to the public that housing completion is the over-arching priority. SOE developers may be encouraged to conduct M&A activities, taking over stalled projects.
    • Reining in systemic risk beyond the near term: Policy makers will likely need to send a clear and strong signal that they stand ready to be the “rescuer of the last resort” to rein in systemic risks. Plausible moves include more meaningful demand stimulus, more explicit guarantees on quality developers, or (less likely) a TARP-like program. Translation: a massive firehose of liquidity and credit is about to be unleashed.

    One final though: similar to crypto lenders which generously handed out 20% DeFi interest until it all blew up spectacularly in one giant, cross-linked ponzi scheme, so China’s 5%+ mortgage rates had been an extremely lucrative business for banks. It’s now payback time.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/14/2022 – 23:00

  • California Scheming: UCSF Prof Plans Floating Abortion Clinic In Gulf Of Mexico
    California Scheming: UCSF Prof Plans Floating Abortion Clinic In Gulf Of Mexico

    To counter a new wave of abortion restrictions in southern states following the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v Wade, a California professor is leading an effort to launch a floating abortion clinic in the Gulf of Mexico next year. The vessel would operate in federal waters, beyond the reach of state laws. 

    The craft would be used to perform surgical abortions up to 14 weeks, along with a variety of other services including onboard testing for sexually transmitted infections (STIs), STI treatment and vaccination, according to the project’s website, which is already soliciting donations. 

    Dr. Meg Autry’s venture is called PRROWESS—short for Protecting Reproductive Rights of Women Endangered by State Statutes. Autry is a professor of obstetrics, gynecology and gynecologic surgery at the University of California – San Francisco. 

    Dr Meg Autry of the University of California – San Francisco

    “There’s been an assault on reproductive rights in our country and I’m a lifelong advocate for reproductive health and choice. We have to create options and be thoughtful and creative to help people in restrictive states get the health care they deserve,” Autry tells The Associated Press.

    “Those in the most southern parts of Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, and Texas may be closer to the coast than to facilities in bordering states where abortion and reproductive health care are available,” says the PRROWESS website.

    We need offshore drilling, not abortions,” counters a spokeswoman for Alabama governor Kay Ivey. 

    Autrey’s goal is to operate three weeks out of each month on a vessel that’s Coast Guard-inspected and equipped with a helicopter landing pad. Rather than making port calls, the plan is for the boat to be positioned in federal waters and patients transported to it, with services provided at little or no cost. 

    Autry says a realistic goal for a launch is one year, with hopes of pulling it off in six to eight months. “There’s operational, logistics, there’s the whole idea of maritime law and then there’s obviously security, there’s liability…I mean the challenges are countless,” Autry tells CBS San Francisco.  

    She thinks it will take $20 million to make her vision a reality, and has a crew of lawyers ready to navigate choppy legal waters ahead.  

    Republican Alabama state senator Chris Elliott notes that “one of the problems with trying to get around state law by going offshore is you have to come back to port. You cannot break state law and then come back to a port where you have broken the law. That would preclude most Gulf Coast areas.”

    “Part of the reason we’re working on this project so hard is because wealthy people in our country are always going to have access (to abortions), so once again it’s a time now where poor, people of color, marginalized individuals, are going to suffer – and by suffering I mean like lives lost,” Autry tells NBC Bay Area

    It remains to be seen if Autry’s intent to perform abortions “only” up to 14 weeks will earn the scorn of hardcore abortion supporters who think it should be available far later. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/14/2022 – 22:40

  • Investigation Reveals Operations Of 'Powerful' Yuma County Democrat Who Admitted To Ballot Harvesting
    Investigation Reveals Operations Of ‘Powerful’ Yuma County Democrat Who Admitted To Ballot Harvesting

    Authored by Gary Bai via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    An undercover video at the polls helped investigators disrupt a local ballot harvesting operation run by a Democratic operative in Arizona, in a scheme that prosecutors have described as a “modern day political machine seeking to influence the outcome” of a 2020 municipal election.

    This undated photo released by the Arizona Attorney General’s Office shows Guillermina Fuentes. (Arizona Attorney General’s Office)

    Guillermina Fuentes, a former mayor of San Luis, and her associate Alma Juarez, earlier this year both pleaded guilty to one count of ballot abuse. Fuentes admitted to illegally collecting early ballots from four persons who were not her family members during a Aug. 4, 2020, primary election in the border town of San Luis.

    Fuentes, of Yuma County, is the owner of a local construction business, a board member of the Gadsden Elementary School District, former mayor of San Luis, Arizona, and a Democratic precinct committee person.

    Investigators noted that Fuentes had apparently used her “powerful” position in the community to get locals to hand over their ballots to her or others for them to drop off at the ballot box, according to records of the Arizona attorney general office obtained by The Epoch Times through a public records request.

    Evidence

    The Arizona attorney general office’s investigation of Fuentes began after it received a notice from the Yuma County Sheriff’s Office of a potential case of voter fraud.

    During primary election day in 2020, Gary Snyder, then a GOP candidate for state senate, went undercover to record a video that seems to show Fuentes to be collecting and filling out ballots beside a polling station, according to a special investigation report dated Oct. 27, 2020 and prepared by Agent William Knuth of the Arizona attorney general’s office.

    David Lara, former vice chairman of the Yuma County GOP, told The Epoch Times that he collaborated with Synder and passed the video evidence on to the Yuma County Sheriff’s office for investigation. The Sheriff’s office worked with the Arizona attorney general’s office in a joint investigation.

    A group of subjects, lead by Guillermina Fuentes were seen on video manning a table and appearing to be supporting particular candidates,” Knuth’s investigation report reads. “A female identified as Alma Juarez approached the table and made contact with a second female identified as Guillermina Fuentes. Fuentes is ultimately observed taking a ballot from Juarez.”

    Fuentes admitted in her guilty plea that the early ballots were later provided to Juarez. Juarez pleaded guilty in March to one count of ballot abuse, a misdemeanor with a maximum sentence of six months with probation available, according to Juarez’s plea agreement.

    In the video, it is clear that the ballot envelope was unsealed. Fuentes was observed to pick up a pen or pencil and write on the ballot envelope. She then pulls the ballot out of the envelope and makes three marks consistent with the filling in of spaces on a ballot to make a candidate selection. Fuentes put the ballot back in the envelope and sealed it. She then retrieved several more ballot envelopes from a folder on the table and handed them to Juarez. Juarez then walks toward the polling,” the report continued.

    Agent Knuth then contacted Juan Guerrero, a Justice of the Peace in Yuma County. Guerrero said he “believed a group of influential subjects, including Fuentes, is exchanging money for the ballots of community members,” according to the report.

    ‘Powerful’ Position

    One of the people interviewed by investigators described Fuentes as a “powerful” figure in the San Luis community, a status she exploited to allegedly engage in ballot harvesting on other occasions.

    Agent Knuth interviewed Monica Corral, who said she was employed by Fuentes at Fuentes’s construction company from August 2016 to January 2017.

    Corral stated that during the time leading up to the 2016 general election, she was given envelopes which she determined contained money. Fuentes informed her who would come to pick up the envelopes, and at the time of pick up would either leave a ballot or provide a time when Fuentes could come pick up their ballot,” Knuth’s report stated.

    “Corral stated that the majority of the envelopes dropped off at the business were unopened, as if they were just received in the mail,” the report continued, adding that Corral estimated more than fifty ballots were dropped off.

    “Testimony of Monica Corral establishes a pattern and history of collecting ballots and in some cases providing monetary compensation for those ballots. Corral’s statement also explains that Fuentes has continued to be allowed to engage in suspicious activity regarding ballots without question due to her “powerful” position in the San Luis community,” the report said.

    Agent Knuth collected statements from community members in San Luis and found that these statements “support the theory that individuals canvass neighborhoods in San Luis and solicit ballots.”

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/14/2022 – 22:20

  • China GDP Growth Plunges In Q2
    China GDP Growth Plunges In Q2

    China’s economic growth hit a two-year low of just +0.4% in the second quarter, with COVID lockdowns and a collapsing property market pushing expectations of the government’s target (around 5.5%) further out of reach.

    “GDP growth in 1H was only 2.5%, implying to reach 5.5% growth target, it would require average 8.5% growth in 2H, which is extremely unlikely,” explains Xiaojia Zhi, chief China economist at Credit Agricole.

    This was a big miss from the +1.2% expectations and other than the COVID lockdown collapse in Q1 2020, this is by far the weakest GDP growth for China in the modern era…

    The rest of the macro melange (for June) dropped tonight were mixed with Industrial Production picking up in June (but less than expected), Retail Sales smashed it (up 3.1% YoY vs +0.3%, notably though the YTD YoY is still down 0.7% YoY). China Fixed Asset Investment was flat on the month and Property Investment tumbled more than expected (down 5.4% YoY). The one (odd) bright light was the surveyed jobless tumbled to just 5.5% (from 5.7%)…

    The spike in retail sales is the standout, but we fear this is unsustainable as it was likely driven by the surge in pent-up demand from 10s of millions of Chinese being completely locked down for a month.

    The market is holding up on the June quarter hope. Bloomberg’s macro-based monthly forecast for China GDP (which incorporates tonight’s monthly data), suggests China GDP re-accelerating considerably in June…

    As Fiona Lim, senior FX strategist at Malayan Banking Bhd in Singapore, says:

    “Despite the weaker-than-expected 2Q GDP, the June activity data is decent with retail sales, FAI ex-rural beating expectations. Jobless rate came back down to 5.5% from previous 5.9% and that is reassuring. Yuan is probably reacting with relief that the bottoming out picture is still intact. That said, yuan bulls may not get much momentum from this set of data given the that the real estate is still under pressure.”

    However, the ongoing  COVID-Zero policy – and risk of immediate lockdowns to considerable parts of the economy – continue to make any trends undecipherable.

    And as Xiaojia Zhi, chief China economist at Credit Agricole, warns:

    “Given the ongoing Covid uncertainties and property market concerns, the risk to our growth forecast of 4.0% in 2022 could be on the downside, even taking into account those fiscal easing packages that have been announced.”

    And finally, don’t think massive credit impulses will save economic growth, it certainly didn’t help in Q2…

    But when has that ever stopped the central planners from repeating the experiment and expecting a different outcome.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/14/2022 – 22:17

  • Russia Continues To Earn More By Exporting Less Oil
    Russia Continues To Earn More By Exporting Less Oil

    Russian export revenues in June rose by $700m to the $20 billion mark, despite that oil exports fell by 250k b/d m/m to 7.4m b/d, the lowest since August 2021, Bloomberg’s Sherry Su reports citing the IEA’s latest Oil Market Report.

    Compared to a post-war peak level in April, total Russian oil exports in June were down 530k b/d, Or 7%, but export revenues were up by $2.3 billion, or 13%.

    Crude oil exports were down by 250k b/d in June to just above 5m b/d, still slightly higher than the pre-war average level according to Su. Shipments to the EU fell below 3m b/d for the first time since November 2020, bringing the EU share of Russian oil exports to 40%, compared to 49% in January-February.

    Crude oil loadings to EU destinations fell 190k b/d m/m to 1.8m b/d, partly because of lower offtake on the Druzhba pipeline due to maintenance at a Hungarian refinery in June. Meanwhile, product loadings to the European Union fell by 135k b/d to 1.13m b/d, the IEA said.

    The fall in crude oil volumes came mostly from lower loadings on the Black Sea, as Rosneft’s 240k b/d Tuapse refinery reportedly came back online in June after a three-month shutdown.

    Total product exports out of Russia were relatively unchanged in June. Diesel exports increased slightly m/m to 825k b/d, 300k b/d lower than the pre-war average. Diesel Loadings to EU countries ticked up to 650 kb/d, returning to January-February average levels.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/14/2022 – 22:00

  • Victor Davis Hanson: Gavin Newsom's Weird Idea Of 'Freedom'
    Victor Davis Hanson: Gavin Newsom’s Weird Idea Of ‘Freedom’

    Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    In a run-up to what is likely to be a 2024 presidential bid, California Governor Gavin Newsom hit upon the bizarre idea of boasting in commercials that California is America’s true “free” state.

    California Gov. Gavin Newsom, right, attends the Opening Plenary of the IX Summit of the Americas at the Los Angeles Convention Center, in Los Angeles, Calif., on June 9, 2022. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)

    Part of his ad campaign is to attack Florida—currently run by Newsom’s possible rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

    Yet, with the most burdensome regulations and high tax rates, Newsom’s California is arguably the most unfree state in the union.

    In return for these steep costs, the state’s public institutions, infrastructure, and services are among the country’s worst.

    California’s once-vaunted freeway system is near the bottom of all state comparisons. California’s Highway 99, which runs the length of the Central Valley, is one of the deadliest roads in America based on miles driven.

    Over half the nation’s homeless crowd the state’s major cities. One-third of America’s welfare recipients have flooded into the state. A fifth of the resident population lives below the poverty line. Well over a quarter of Golden State residents were not born in the United States.

    California public school test scores consistently fall among the bottom 10 states. San Francisco has the highest per capita property crime rate in the country.

    The recently recalled San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin and his soon-to-be recalled Los Angeles counterpart George Gascón have nearly ruined their cities. Both are iconic of multibillionaire George Soros’ nationwide efforts to undermine the entire criminal justice system.

    State residents are not free to drive safely because of their decrepit freeways. They are not free from filthy and toxic sidewalks or dangerous physical assault in their major cities.

    Public school children are not free to enjoy competitive educations. San Franciscans are not free to park their cars without fearing that they will be vandalized or stolen.

    The destruction of these freedoms is in direct proportion to the confiscatory taxes that the state collects—the highest bracket of income and gasoline rates in the nation, among the highest sales taxes, and property taxes that soar due to inflated assessments in spite of a 1978 state constitutional amendment.

    Currently, California faces brownouts due to the longstanding, deliberate curtailment of electrical generation plants.

    Yosemite’s historic redwood forest is currently threatened with what are now customary California summer conflagrations.

    The destructive, dirty forest fires reflect a deliberate state policy of not gleaning the forests of dead trees, but rather letting the flammable debris serve as “natural” fodder for bugs and birds.

    The state has not built a major reservoir in nearly 40 years.

    In rarer wet years, millions of acre-feet of runoff and snowmelt simply cascade to the sea. Releasing such vital water apparently enhances 19th-century riparian landscapes—and discourages its own agribusiness.

    Amid Newsom’s anti-Florida ad campaign, the governor was vacationing at the upscale digs of his Montana in-laws—escorted by his ample state-paid security detail. That is odd, given Newsom’s California labels Montana a homophobic hellhole, and will not even reimburse state employees who dare to convention there.

    Hypocrisy and elite virtue signaling, however, are now trademarks of California politicians—and illustrate how little elected officials care for the victims of their ideological agendas.

    Newsom bragged about his tough California mask mandate although it did not lower COVID-19 deaths per capita in any measurable degree than did the policies of the red states he so often trashes. He violated his own COVID mandates by dining at the upscale French Laundry restaurant and hanging out unmasked with Magic Johnson.

    Newsom has done nothing to remedy his state’s soaring gas prices, terrible schools and infrastructure, or spiking crime. But he did virtue signal about giving illegal aliens millions of state dollars in COVID relief.

    Rather than develop California’s rich gas and oil reserves, Newsom promised strapped motorists that he would send them a one-time fuel gift of $400.

    Read the rest here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/14/2022 – 21:40

  • The Corporate Layoffs Have Started And Leftist Big Tech Is Leading The Pack
    The Corporate Layoffs Have Started And Leftist Big Tech Is Leading The Pack

    There are two major forces at work within the US economy today that pull in different directions but end up in the same place:  These forces are price inflation caused by central bank stimulus along with supply chain instability and recession triggered by rising interest rates.   Immense corporate and consumer debt also play a role, but this ties in directly with the interest rate issue.

    In other words, we are looking at a classic stagflationary scenario amplified by years of fiat dollar printing by the Federal Reserve.  The only element that has been missing is rising unemployment, until now.  

    The word “recession” is being used liberally lately and there is a good reason for this – It is vague and gives the public little to no idea of what to expect or how bad the economic downturn could get.  It is also a convenient distraction from the much more dangerous issue of rising prices.  If a “recession” is on the way, won’t this mean prices will fall?  Not necessarily, at least not anytime soon.  

    With high retail prices leading to less purchasing power among US consumers and less spending, corporations are going to have to cut costs somewhere.  They can only raise prices so high for goods and services before they will inevitably turn to mass layoffs to gain breathing room.  And, the first companies that are going to have to face the music are the most frivolous business models that don’t produce necessities (i.e. Big Tech).  

    At least 143 US tech companies have laid off around 24,000 employees this year and this is just the beginning. 

    There are the more publicized layoffs at streaming services like Netflix which fired around 500 regular workers and canceled operations with numerous contractors.  The company lost 200,000 subscribers in the first quarter of this year and expects to lose 2 million more subscribers in the near term.  It’s another case of “Get Woke, Go Broke,” but it’s also a reflection of the changing tech environment as inflation in necessities strangles consumer wallets.  There is no doubt Netflix will see continued layoffs through the rest of this year.  

    Then there are the more quietly publicized employment issues at social media giants like Facebook and Twitter.  Twitter announced mass layoffs were in the works last week as uncertainty over the company’s acquisition by Elon Musk grew.  Now that it is clear that Musk will not be buying the platform, they face serious decisions on cuts in order to remain afloat as their stock price tanks.  So far, Twitter has laid off over 30% of its talent division and announced a hiring pause. 

    In a recent leaked memo, Facebook executives have informed managers that “low performance” employees have no place at the company and will need to be cut, indicating that a philosophy of meritocracy is returning to the otherwise woke world of social media.  

    Facebook has been bleeding money for years now and in February it’s stock prices plummeted after it announced that it has lost subscribers for the first time in its 18 year history.  The shares have collapsed by 50% since February and are still dropping.  Mark Zuckerberg personally lost at least $32 billion in stock holdings in February alone. 

    Multiple Big Tech and high concept companies that rely heavily on tech have announced hiring freezes or layoffs in the past month, including Apple, Uber, Lyft, Snap, Hopin and Coinbase.  

    Financial problems at proto-news websites like Buzzfeed and Vox have been well known for months as the venture capital artificially propping up these companies has finally run out.  But extensive losses have been felt throughout the corporate media and leftist web media in particular.  Even CNN is floundering with its abrupt cancellation of streaming service CNN+ and the layoff of staffers.  Most or all of these corporations represent peripheral digital products and services that the vast majority of Americans have no use for and which serve no core purpose.

    A moderate recession might actually be useful is separating the wheat from the chaff within the current corporate climate, and with inflation rising there is the good chance that the Federal Reserve will not choose to step in to pour more stimulus dollars into dead companies that are dragging the economy down.  Just because they did it in 2008/2009 does not mean they will do it now.  However, it’s unlikely that the downturn will remain limited and merely clean out bad business.  The word “recession” is misleading; what we are really facing is a historic breakdown of the system which will affect the majority of the public.  

    If the current stagflation trend continues, layoffs will accelerate into the end of this year and into 2023, likely on a scale similar to 2009.  Yet prices on most necessities will remain high and it will be the worst of both economic worlds.  Big tech companies will only survive with extreme changes to their customer and performance models as advertising dollars dry up completely.  Either that, or they will require some kind of government assistance beyond what they have already received, though this will only expose them to more consumer scrutiny and more losses in their user numbers.

    It is perhaps the one bright spot in an otherwise dismal economic forecast; that some of these platforms which have politically abused their customers for so long will finally suffer some karma.    

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/14/2022 – 21:20

  • China On Verge Of Violent Debt Jubilee As "Disgruntled" Homebuyers Refuse To Pay Their Mortgages
    China On Verge Of Violent Debt Jubilee As “Disgruntled” Homebuyers Refuse To Pay Their Mortgages

    While US snowflakes are all too happy to talk the talk (which remains free, even despite Biden’s hyperinflation), Chinese residents are increasingly walking the walk. First, it was the violent outcry against mandatory covid vaccines that put an end to Beijing’s desire to forcibly innoculate all Beijing residents in just 48 hours – a feat not all of America’s armed militias have been able to achieve, and now it’s a grassroots push for what appears to be a debt jubillee as millions of homeowners suddenly stop paying their mortgages, a shocking move that has sent shockwaves across China’s capital markets and has sparked panic within China’s political leadership circles.

    As Bloomberg reports overnight, a rapidly increasing number of “disgruntled Chinese homebuyers” are refusing to pay mortgages for unfinished construction projects, exacerbating the country’s real estate woes and stoking fears that the crisis will spread to the wider financial system as countless mortgages default.

    According to researcher China Real Estate Information, homebuyers have stopped mortgage payments on at least 100 projects in more than 50 cities as of Wednesday, up from 58 projects on Tuesday and only 28 on Monday, according to Jefferies Financial Group Inc. analysts including Shujin Chen.

    “The names on the list doubled every day in the past three days,” Chen wrote in a note published Thursday. “The incident would dampen buyer sentiment, especially for presold products offered by private developers given the higher risk on delivery, and weigh on the gradual sales recovery.”

    What’s behind this grassroot movement to halt mortgage payments altogether? Negative equity:

    Analysts believe that a drop in home values may be another driver for the refusal to meet mortgage payments. “Investors are concerned about the spread of mortgage payment snubs to buyers, simply due to lower property prices, and the impact on property sales,” Chen wrote.

    According to Citi analysts, average selling prices of properties in nearby projects in 2022 were on average 15% lower than purchase costs in the past three years. Meanwhile, it’s only getting worse as China’s home prices fell for a ninth month in May, with June figures set for release Friday.   

    The crisis engulfing Chinese developers is reaching a new phase, with a debt selloff expanding to firms once deemed safe from the cash crunch, including investment-grade names such as Country Garden Holdings, the largest builder by sales.

    The payment refusals, which come at a time when China’s economy is set to post what may be a negative GDP print due to the latest economic shutdown over Xi’s catastrophic zero covid policies, underscore how the storm engulfing China’s property sector is now affecting hundreds of thousands of average citizens, posing a threat to social stability ahead of a Communist Party Congress later this year. Chinese banks already grappling with challenges from liquidity stress among developers now also have to brace for homebuyer defaults.

    As a result of the unprecedented push for a debt jubilee, shares of China’s banks extended their recent decline Thursday, with the CSI 300 Banks Index falling as much as 3.3% before closing down 2.2%. A Bloomberg Intelligence index of Chinese developer stocks slid as much as 2.7%, even though Chinese lenders were quick to try and dispel fears that the movement could crash the economy: according to Bank of Communications, its outstanding balance of overdue mortgage loans linked to housing projects with risks of delayed delivery is 99.8 million yuan, accounting for 0.0067% of its domestic housing mortgage balance. The bank added that its housing mortgage loan quality is stable and risks are controllable, the Shanghai-based lender says in an exchange filing. At the same time, Postal Savings Bank of China says its overdue mortgage loans linked to halted housing projects is 127m yuan, and risks are controllable. Of course, it’s not like Chinese banks would ever lie, now is it?

    Which is why others remained skeptical: Nomura analysts said the refusal to pay mortgages stems from the widespread practice in China of selling homes before they’re built. Confidence that projects will be completed has weakened as developers’ cash woes intensified, according to the Japanese bank. Even before the crisis, developers only delivered around 60% of homes they presold between 2013 and 2020, while outstanding mortgage loans rose by 26.3 trillion yuan, Nomura analysts including Ting Lu wrote in a note Wednesday.

    “Presales carry mounting risks for developers, homebuyers, the financial system and the macro economy,” Ting wrote. Failure to build homes on time reduces households’ willingness to buy new properties, and rising raw material prices may mean funds from presales are insufficient to construct them.

    We are especially concerned about the financial impact of the homebuyers’ ‘stopping mortgage repayments’ movement,” Ting wrote. “China’s property downturn may finally adversely affect onshore financial institutions after hitting the offshore high-yield dollar bond market.”

    * * *

    While rising non-performing loans for Chinese banks are “manageable” for now, “more risk events are likely to come, at the backdrop of China’s growth slowdown, residents’ expectation of worse future income, and shrinking property sales,” affecting China’s social stability, Jefferies’s Chen said.

    At that point Beijing will be faced with a stark choice: inject a massive amount of liquidity into the market, or brace for the biggest fear for every Chinese politician: a middle-class insurrection. We doubt they will pick the latter.

    And while the odds are low that this latest example of testicular fortitude demonstrated by millions of increasingly desperate Chinese citizens will be imitated in the US, the last thing the flailing US economy can afford is a similar self-imposed debt jubilee, one which will see the Fed injection trillions into the economy in no time.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/14/2022 – 21:11

  • Recession Would Make Tough Oil Sanctions On Russia More Likely
    Recession Would Make Tough Oil Sanctions On Russia More Likely

    By John Kemp, senior analyst at Reuters

    Recession in the major economies is the only sure-fire way to reduce Russia’s petroleum revenues – an uncomfortable truth Western policymakers have tried to obfuscate from voters at home.

    U.S. and EU policymakers will not deliberately plunge their economies into a recession simply to intensify the economic pressure on Russia; privation is not an attractive option in electoral politics. But if their economies go into recession anyway, which currently appears possible or even probable, the likelihood of tough sanctions on Russia’s oil exports will increase significantly later this year and in 2023.

    Russia was the world’s second-largest oil producer in 2021, with output of 536 million tonnes, behind the United States with output of 711 million tonnes, but just ahead of Saudi Arabia on 515 million tonnes. On a mass-basis, Russia accounted for nearly 13% of worldwide production, behind the United States (17%) but marginally ahead of Saudi Arabia (12%), according to BP (“Statistical review of world energy”, July 2022).
     
    Saudi Arabia, the other Gulf monarchies and U.S. shale firms appear to be producing close to their current limits, with few options to raise output in the short term.

    None of these producers seems both able and willing to make up for any loss of crude and refined fuel exports from Russia, in any significant volume, despite the recent surge in prices.

    In the absence of a recession, the marginal barrel in the oil market is therefore from Russia, and the terms on which it is made available to international buyers in the Middle East and Asia set the global price.

    So far, sanctions on Russia’s petroleum exports have driven up prices for consuming countries, while boosting Russia’s earnings because prices have risen faster than volumes have fallen.

    But recession or a prolonged business cycle downturn in the major oil-consuming economies of the United States, the European Union and China would change the situation by creating spare capacity in the oil market.

    The marginal price-setting barrel would no longer be exclusively from Russia; Saudi Arabia, the rest of OPEC and U.S. shale producers would all be competing to supply stagnating or shrinking consumption.

    SELF-SANCTIONING

    Until now, energy sanctions have hurt consumers more than they have punished Russia, with the European Union and the United States headed towards a business cycle downturn in large part because of high energy and other commodity prices.

    The European Union, in particular, appears to have sanctioned itself close to a recession as soaring prices for oil, gas and electricity, as well as food products and manufactured items squeeze household and business spending.

    This should not have come as a surprise to policymakers with a sense of history (“Energy sanctions and the impact on prices for consumers”, Kemp, June 10).

    Four centuries of experience shows that energy embargoes increase prices paid by consumers significantly in the short and medium term unless there are alternative supplies readily available to make up the deficit.

    Energy boycotts are an attractive policy instrument if and only if there is excess production capacity (actual or potential) that allows energy from sanctioned sources to be replaced by non-sanctioned ones.

    Sanctions on Russia’s oil have boomeranged on consumers the same way they did when the English parliament banned coal shipments into London from royalist coal-producing areas in 1642/43 during the civil war.

    The same problem was evident when international oil companies embargoed fuel shipments from Iran between 1951 and 1954 following nationalisation of the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, causing fuel shortages in Asia.

    RECESSION CALCULUS

    Recession or a business cycle downturn would change the circumstances and make it possible, at least in principle, to replace Russia’s petroleum exports with more barrels from other suppliers. Recession and the emergence of more spare capacity would also lead to lower prices for all producers, including Russia.

    In a recession, Russia’s revenues would be hit doubly hard by the combination of lower prices and lower volumes as its barrels were replaced by barrels from other producers.

    Understandably, senior U.S. and EU policymakers are not keen to engineer a deliberate recession to make sanctions more effective. Complicated proposals for a price cap on Russia’s oil sales are an attempt to evade this dilemma, or at least hide the policy trade offs (“Russian Oil’s Achilles Heel”, Kennedy, April 7).

    But if an unintended recession occurs in the next few months, it could create more space to toughen sanctions policies later in 2022 and in 2023. Re-emergence of spare capacity would make replacement of Russian oil practical while lower prices would mask the cost of sanctions for consumers and make them more politically acceptable to voters.

    With all producers hit by the simultaneous downturn in sales volumes and prices, there might be more interest in displacing Russian barrels from rivals, potentially weakening solidarity within the OPEC+ group.

    Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Western sanctions on Russia’s oil exports, and the outlook for the global economic cycle have become inextricably linked.
      
    Related columns:

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/14/2022 – 21:00

  • Mexican Thieves Stealing $1 Billion Of Liquefied Petroleum Gas A Year
    Mexican Thieves Stealing $1 Billion Of Liquefied Petroleum Gas A Year

    In a dangerous game of wack-a-mole, Mexico nearly eliminated rampant gasoline pipeline thefts only to now see cartels and common thieves stealing $1 billion worth of liquified petroleum gas (LPG) each year from state-owned Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex.

    Under Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, theft from gasoline and diesel pipelines plummeted 94% after he deployed the National Guard and military surveillance to watch over the supply arteries. The glow of that success has been dulled, however, as criminals have switched to tapping the country’s 1,000 miles of LPG pipelines. 

    Pemex found more than 2,400 illegal taps last year—up more than 10-fold in just three years. LPG is Mexico’s top source of energy for heating homes and is also used in cooking. The thieves sell directly to homeowners and food merchants, often using trucks disguised to look like legitimate delivery vehicles

    As Bloomberg Businessweek reports: 

    The scheme starts with a bribe; a Pemex worker is paid to tip off thieves…when LPG is running through a line and tells them where to open the valves. Then comes the dangerous part—siphoning the gas, which unlike gasoline can’t just be poured into a bucket. They must carefully connect a hose to the pipe to funnel the LPG into cylinders.

    One LPG thief profiled by Businessweek sells up to 80 cylinders of gas a day for 20 to 30% below the cost of legal fuel, netting an income that’s 40 times the average salary in his southeastern Mexican town. He’s used his earnings to buy fancy clothes, jewelry, family vacations and several plots of land. 

    Like other black markets, the illicit trade in LPG is marked by violence perpetrated by the fuel thieves, who are called huachicoleros. Security guards and police have come under attacks that are often deadly. There’s also violence among cartels and other thieves fighting to protect territory. Often, fuel theft is just one of an array of criminal enterprises pursued by criminal groups. 

    Some casualties associated with the trade are purely accidental. Residential explosions are on the rise as untrained thieves use unsafe practices in their home installations of the product.

    The taps themselves are likewise perilous. In October, an illegal LPG pipeline tap was blamed for a huge explosion that killed one person, injured eight, and damaged 180 homes in San Pablo Xochimehuacán. 

    The aftermath of an explosion caused by an illegal LPG tap in San Pablo Xochimehuacán (via Mexico News Daily)

    LPG is typically composed of a mix of propane and butane. When subjected to modest pressure or cooling, it converts to a liquid form that allows for more energy to be stored and transported in compact containers.

    The longer global fuel prices stay elevated as a result of the West’s self-destructive economic warfare, the more this trade will prosper, with bodies and rubble piling higher. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/14/2022 – 20:40

  • 3rd Wave Of Inflation Will Be Unleashed If Fed Doesn't "Get Its Act Together": El-Erian
    3rd Wave Of Inflation Will Be Unleashed If Fed Doesn’t “Get Its Act Together”: El-Erian

    Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Economist Mohamed El-Erian has warned that a third wave of inflationary pressures is building and will be “unleashed” if the Federal Reserve doesn’t act quickly.

    Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser of Allianz, at FOX Studios in New York on April 29, 2016. (Rob Kim/Getty Images)

    El-Erian, the former CEO of American investment management firm Pimco, made the comments on social media on July 13, shortly after financial markets were shocked by the U.S. annual inflation rate rising to 9.1 percent in June, marking its highest level since November 1981.

    Economists had forecast that inflation would come in at 8.8 percent in June.

    Looking forward, inflation will come down over the next couple of months. That’s the good news,” El-Erian said on Wednesday.

    However, the expert noted that a “third wave of inflationary pressures”—the underlying causes of inflation—is building, and “will be unleashed if the Fed doesn’t get its act together quickly.”

    “With the first best policy option now long gone due to the first two stages of the ongoing Fed policy mistake, the recession risks are increasing accordingly,” El-Erian said.

    The economist added that this means that households, particularly those in the most vulnerable segments of society, are likely to take a second “big hit,” adding that he believes “much of this could have been avoided.

    Federal Reserve officials in mid-June raised the benchmark interest rate by 0.75 percentage points, and were widely expected to raise rates by another 0.75 percentage points this month as inflation continues to soar.

    However, after Wednesday’s headline reading, experts have now increased the odds of a 100-basis-point rate hike at the Fed’s next policy meeting to 77 percent.

    ‘Not Acceptable’

    According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on July 13, the cost of rent, food, energy, and medical care all rose in June.

    Food prices soared 10.4 percent for the 12 months ending June, marking the largest 12-month increase since the period ending February 1981, while the energy index advanced by 41.6 percent.

    Meanwhile, gasoline surged by 59.9 percent, marking the largest 12-month increase in that index since March 1980, while electricity costs jumped by 13.7 percent.

    President Joe Biden said in a statement on Twitter that the latest report served as a reminder that “inflation is too high” and that the numbers “are not acceptable,” while doubling down on his promise that fighting soaring prices is his “top economic priority.”

    However, Biden also said the inflation figures were “outdated” because gasoline prices have declined by roughly 40 cents per gallon over the past 30 days.

    The Biden administration has repeatedly downplayed fears that the U.S. economy is heading for a recession.

    El-Erian’s comments come shortly after Costco Wholesale CEO Craig Jelinek warned on July 11 that many Americans are already experiencing a recession and are struggling to make ends meet amid a volatile U.S. economy.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/14/2022 – 20:20

  • Iconic Fed Analyst Calls It: Powell Will Be Forced To End QT Much Sooner Than Expected
    Iconic Fed Analyst Calls It: Powell Will Be Forced To End QT Much Sooner Than Expected

    When BofA’s top Rates strategist, and former NY Fed analyst, Marc Cabana speaks, investors, the Fed – and even his former Fed co-worker and repo guru, Zoltan Pozsar – listen. And what Cabana has to say now is extremely important.

    On Thursday morning, roughly around the time BofA’s chief equity strategist Ssavita Subramanian slashed her S&P year-end price target by a whopping 25% from 4,500 to 3,600, Cabana’s rates team published a must read note (which is also available to pro subs in the usual place), in which he wrote that the bank’s rates team “is making substantial downward revisions to our rate forecasts following our US economics team’s new call for a mild 2022 recession and lower Fed funds rate path.”

    What revisions?

    Well, as of today, in addition to sharply lowering its stock targets, BofA is also slashing its 10y Treasury end ’22 forecast from 3.50% to 2.75% and end ’23 forecast from 3.25% to 2.50%. The cuts come as BofA’s economics team yesterday also slashed its forecast to reflect a US recession in 2022 and materially lowered the Fed funds rate path with the terminal Fed funds rate lowered from 4.00-4.25% to 3.25-3.50%, as the BofA economics team now expects 100bp of Fed rate cuts between Sep ’23 and Jun ’24.

    Needless to say, the new forecasts are “very bullish” vs the forwards given the market’s expectation for Fed rate cuts in 2H23 and 1H24.

    Some more details from Cabana:

    The lower Fed rate path and rate cuts in ’23-’24 are the most relevant aspects of our US economics team changes for the US rate path. We are lowering our 10yT end ’22 forecast from 3.50% to 2.75% and end ’23 forecast from 3.25% to 2.50%. Our new forecasts are very bullish vs the forwards given the expectation for Fed rate cuts in 2H23 and 1H24 (Exhibit 4). Our prior rate forecasts initially reflected a bullish rate bias vs the forwards but these revisions make us more constructive vs the current market.

    All of the above is not really Cabana’s insight as he had no choice but to cut his rates forecast in a recession, which of course is not his call, and when the continued selloff in stocks will push investors into bonds.

    What was, however, unique in Cabana’s take is that the former Fed staffer, whose monetary forecasts always pan out correctly (he correctly predicted that the Fed would purchase corporate bonds just days before the Fed did just that), is that in his new base case for Fed cuts in 2H23 is expected to occur with an end to QT. To wit:

    We expect the Fed will stop QT with rate cuts due to the contradictory signal it sends on monetary policy and to simplify policy communications; the Fed will likely not want to be easing with rate cuts but tightening with QT.

    Cabana reminds us that the Fed has established a playbook for such an action in 2019 when the Fed cut started cutting rates in July ’19 and simultaneously announced a cessation of QT. Back then, the “QT cessation resulted in the Fed shifting MBS reinvestments up to the monthly redemption cap into USTs purchased in the secondary market.”

    To be sure, it is possible that the Fed will choose not to follow the ’19 cut and QT end playbook, but that is unlikely according to Cabana, who just in case adds a few potential arguments for not ending QT with a 2H23 rate cut:

    1. the Fed will only be “normalizing” front-end rates after a period of elevated inflation,
    2. the Fed balance sheet will likely still be far from reserve scarcity. We see the logic of each argument but believe it will be difficult to prove ex-ante. We also expect the Fed to opt for the simplest communication: stop QT when cutting rates.

    Cabana then notes that an earlier QT end would have several UST implications:

    1. reduced front-end UST cheapening pressure with more cash / less collateral in financial system,
    2. potentially more UST coupon cuts due to lower financing needs, and
    3. fewer secondary market UST dislocations due to a re-start of Fed purchases from MBS => UST reinvestment.

    Each of these would tend to bias UST-SOFR spreads wider across the curve.

    As for what happens to the Fed’s balance sheet, Cabana predicts that “Fed QT that is stopped in Sept ’23 will result in $1tn less balance sheet reduction vs our prior estimates through end ’24. Over a similar period, early QT end would result in $780b less UST financing need + $350b of additional Fed UST demand (from Fed MBS paydowns reinvested into USTs).”

    Such a large UST financing shock would result in less bill supply and eventual additional coupon cuts. The risk of early Fed QT end may also encourage the UST to continue with its current slate of coupon reductions and even larger 20yT cuts.

    Finally, while Cabana will not say it just yet, we will: or rather, we will repeat what we have been saying for a long time: after all, we called a premature end to QT several months ago. As for what happens after QT ends, well… there’s a playbook for that too, as we discussed yesterday.

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    Expect the market to take a few days (or weeks) to digest the full implications of this critical Fed pivot, but once markets realize that Cabana is once again right, high beta risk assets, currency debasement hedges like gold and bitcoin, and of course commodities will soar limit up as there will be no U-turn from this particular final Fed capitulation.

    Much more in the full must read note from Cabana, available only to professional subscribers.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/14/2022 – 20:08

  • China Could End Australia Coal Ban As Early As Late Summer, Reports Say
    China Could End Australia Coal Ban As Early As Late Summer, Reports Say

    Rumors swirl as China could reverse its unofficial ban on imports of Australian coal due to mounting supply uncertainty over the future loss of Russian energy supplies when Western-led sanctions are enacted.

    Reuters cited a Chinese news website: “Rumors of easing the ban on Australian coal imports have been circulating recently.” 

    Last week, China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, held talks with Australian counterpart Penny Wong during an economic summit of G20 foreign ministers in Bali. 

    “There were rumors last week saying the ban was to be lifted, and now the talk is intensifying after the two parties met,” the website added.

    Bloomberg adds more color by citing people familiar with a proposal sent to Chinese leadership urging them to lift the nearly two-year ban on Australian coal. 

    The proposal will be submitted to senior leaders, with a recommendation Beijing should resume Australian imports, according to people familiar with the plan. That’s been prompted by fears European-led curbs on Russian energy will increase competition for coal from China’s main suppliers such as Indonesia. 

    Officials are looking to boost fuel supplies to avoid a repeat of last year’s power disruptions — particularly ahead of a key party congress — said the people, who requested anonymity to discuss a private matter.

    The plan will be handed to leaders who are in a position to authorize any change in policy to make a final decision, the people said. Though it remains uncertain whether a decision will ultimately be made to lift the ban, some companies are already preparing to resume imports, according to two other people. –Bloomberg 

    Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told reporters at a regular press conference on Thursday that Australia has the ability to “build up positive energy, and create favorable conditions for sound and steady development between China-Australia trade relations.”

    Beijing shunned coal imports from Australia in late 2020 over Canberra’s banning of Huawei Technologies Co. equipment in 5G networks. The situation worsened when former PM Scott Morrison requested an independent probe into the origins of the COVID-19 — deeply angering Beijing. 

    China’s potential reversal on the coal ban comes as the European Union and G7 countries will restrict Russian coal imports later this year. This will allow China more breathing room to procure metallurgical coal for steelmaking and power plants. 

    Today’s rumors led to a surge in Australian coal stocks:

    Firms such as Coronado Resources CRN.AX, Yancoal Australia YAL.AX, Whitehaven Coal WHC.AX and New Hope Corp NHC.AX all saw shares rise between 6% and 10% on the report. -Reuters 

    China could reverse the unofficial coal ban as soon as “August or September,” according to an Australian news outlet.  

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/14/2022 – 20:00

  • The Real Cost Of Inflation For Most Americans
    The Real Cost Of Inflation For Most Americans

    Authored by Petr Svab via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The June inflation figure of 9.1 percent, up half a percentage point from last month and the highest since 1981, doesn’t tell half the story of how expensive life has become for Americans. The overall figure hides the fact that not all prices have risen uniformly and that products that have become especially expensive also happen to be the ones people usually can’t do without, such as food, fuel, and energy, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

    U.S. consumer price inflation surged 9.1 percent over the past 12 months to June, the fastest increase since November 1981, according to government data released on July 13, 2022. (Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images)

    Among foodstuffs, margarine and eggs prices hiked the most over the 12 months ending June, up over 34 and 33 percent respectively. Trailing behind were butter (up over 21 percent), flour (up over 19 percent), and chicken (more than 18 percent). Milk and coffee were up about 16 percent.

    Regular gasoline hiked more than 60 percent, diesel about 76 percent, and fuel oil, which many Americans use to heat their homes, nearly doubled in price. Natural gas went up over 38 percent and electricity nearly 14 percent.

    The White House, through President Joe Biden’s Twitter account, called the inflation figures “not acceptable,” but “outdated” on July 13, noting gasoline price has declined about 40 cents per gallon (about 8 percent) over the past 30 days.

    The products with the most prominent price hikes tend to also suffer supply issues. Gasoline production is constrained by the policies of the Biden administration and the financial elites more generally as part of their efforts to curb carbon emissions. Egg production has been constrained by the avian flu outbreak that cut the number of laying hens by about 8 percent in recent months. Grain production has been hit with sky-high fertilizer prices and herbicide shortages. Higher grain prices, in turn, not only show up in bakery goods and flour, but also in animal feed, which then hits meat and milk prices too.

    Normally, consumers respond to higher prices by tightening their belts—consuming less—which in turn leads prices down. But because of the lavish federal spending packages during the COVID-19 pandemic, however, consumer demand has been artificially boosted. Prices will have to go up relatively steeply for another year or two before the productivity of the economy catches up with all the newly printed money, some economists have predicted.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/14/2022 – 19:40

  • White House Assured Khashoggi's Wife His Death Will Be Raised With MbS
    White House Assured Khashoggi’s Wife His Death Will Be Raised With MbS

    Joe Biden is set to be the first American president in history to fly straight from Israel to Saudi Arabia on Friday. He’s expected to meet with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Saturday, though it’s as yet unclear if this will be one-on-one or in the presence of other heads of state and officials from the region.

    On Thursday Biden refused to commit to raising the issue of the murder of Jamal Khashoggi when he meets with MbS when pressed by a reporter in a joint news conference with Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid.

    “I always bring up human rights,” Biden said in response, dodging the initial question on whether he’ll raise Khashoggi’s name. “But my position on Khashoggi has been so clear. If anyone doesn’t understand it, in Saudi Arabia or anywhere else, then they haven’t been around for a while.”

    As The Associated Press wrote of the exchange

    Biden said the purpose of his trip to Saudi Arabia is “broader” and designed to “reassert” U.S. influence in the Middle East. He’s scheduled to attend a summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes several Arab nations.

    He quickly pivoted in his comments alongside the Israeli leader to broader geopolitics and regional security: “I want to make clear that we can continue to lead in the region and not create a vacuum, a vacuum that is filled by China and or Russia, against the interests of both Israel and the United States and many other countries,” Biden said.

    Contradicting Biden’s obfuscation, Khashoggi’s widow issued a statement saying that the White House assured her that the president will bring up the murder of her husband with crown prince bin Salman.

    According to The Hill:

    The widow of murdered Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi says the Biden administration promised to bring up her husband’s death during his visit to Saudi Arabia later this week. 

    Hanan Khashoggi told Spectrum News Wednesday that she’s sure the president will bring up during key meetings U.S. intelligence that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman approved Jamal Khashoggi’s 2018 killing, saying the administration assured her that her husband’s case would be discussed.

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    “I think we can make the best out of this visit,” she said of Biden’s impending visit to the kingdom. “I appreciate the emotion toward my husband, because he deserved it. But I think we all, together, we can make the best out of this by using the political pressure, diplomatic pressure to bring his wishes out.”

    But after Biden’s clear avoidance of committing to raising Khashoggi’s murder in the meeting, on display Thursday in the Israeli presser, it seems anything but clear whether he’s going to follow through at this point. Will the public find out either way? The New York Post suggests that Biden will be carefully shielded from the press after the MbS meeting:

    President Biden won’t hold a press conference when he travels to Saudi Arabia and meets with killer Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the White House said Wednesday — days after Biden insisted in an op-ed that “fundamental freedoms are always on the agenda when I travel abroad.”

    “We don’t have a press conference for Saudi [Arabia],” press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters on Air Force One en route to Israel for the first leg of Biden’s trip.

    “But what we are trying to do is trying to make sure that you guys hear from the president in Saudi [Arabia], on the bilats [bilateral meetings], on the trip, and make sure that you guys hear directly from him,” Jean-Pierre added in the statement.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/14/2022 – 19:20

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 14th July 2022

  • Russia, Ukraine Reach Breakthrough Over Blocked Grain Exports: UN Chief
    Russia, Ukraine Reach Breakthrough Over Blocked Grain Exports: UN Chief

    Is this the beginning of a solution to the Ukraine grain export impasse which has been threatening to put large swathes of dependent populations across the Middle East and Africa on the brink of famine? 

    On Wednesday UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres announced that warring powers are on the cusp of a deal to free up Black Sea exports after multiple intense rounds of talks in Istanbul, saying an “important and substantive step” was made towards reaching a comprehensive agreement.

    Source: Turkish Defense Ministry/EPA

    Next week, hopefully, we’ll be able to have a final agreement. But, as I said, we still need a lot of goodwill and commitments by all parties,” Guterres said from UN headquarters in New York. He qualified that despite this rare instance of Ukraine and Russia engaging the other in negotiations, it remains that “for peace we still have a long way to go.”

    Turkey’s Defense Minister Hulusi Akar also confirmed that a deal is close, saying it would be signed next week, when both sides are expected to meet again. Moscow and Kiev have reportedly agreed to “joint controls for checking grains at harbors” – though details of the draft deal haven’t been fully revealed.

    The BBC additionally reported that talks are appearing to focus on neutral external parties – such as Turkey for example – safeguarding international vessels through the Black Sea:

    Talks on opening up a “green corridor” through the Black Sea took place in Turkey on Wednesday. But any agreement will require support from President Vladimir Putin, who meets Turkey’s president in Iran on 19 July.

    And Bloomberg sources revealed the following:

    Talks were held in Istanbul with representatives from Ukraine, Russia and Turkey, plus the United Nations. The sides agreed on the “main technical principles,” Turkey’s defense minister said in a statement.

    Ukrainian and Russian delegations will meet again in Turkey next week to further discuss details, Turkey said. There has been no statement issued yet from Kyiv or Moscow. The parties agreed to form a coordination center, among other discussion points, Turkey said.

    Further, according to Al Jazeera citing two sources privy to the Istanbul talks, the parties “are close to a deal or perhaps they even have a deal.”

    In a Spring forecast by the United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization, it was estimated that the globe will see a 20% decline in global wheat production this year due to the ongoing situation in Ukraine, where the country’s Ministry of Agriculture recently warned a third of the country’s farmland is occupied or unsafe.

    The issue of a theoretical deal being reached vs. the reality of actually executing it remains an entirely different question, given the presence of thousands of mines around many of Ukraine’s key ports. Russia has put the issue in central focus as it has sought to combat accusations from the West that it alone is to blame for the blockade of crucial wheat supplies from the country. The Kremlin has laid fundamental blame for the crisis on Ukraine’s military mining its own ports.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/14/2022 – 02:45

  • Climate Mandates Imposed On Dutch Farmers Will Ruin Their Livelihoods: War Correspondent
    Climate Mandates Imposed On Dutch Farmers Will Ruin Their Livelihoods: War Correspondent

    Authored by Ella Kietlinska and Joshua Phillipp via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The livelihoods of Dutch farmers are under attack due to the Dutch government’s proposed nitrogen policy, which could necessitate the mass slaughter of livestock and potentially shut down almost a third of the country’s farms.

    War correspondent Michael Yon in an interview for EpochTV’s “Crossroads” program on July 2, 2020. (Screenshot via EpochTV)

    If this policy is implemented, it will have “major security consequences, not just for the Netherlands, but for all of Europe and the world,” said Michael Yon, a war correspondent who has recently arrived in the Netherlands to report on the ground from the Dutch farmers’ protests.

    The Netherlands is a small country in Europe with a population of 17 million people, but it is the second-largest food exporter in the world, Yon said in a recent interview for EpochTV’s “Crossroads” program. “They have the most efficient farmers in the world.”

    King Willem-Alexander (L) and Prime Minister Mark Rutte of the Netherlands sign the Royal Decrees as part of the inauguration of the new prime minister’s cabinet at Noordeinde Palace in The Hague on Jan. 10, 2022. (Sem Vander Wal/AFP via Getty Images)

    In 2021, the Netherlands’s coalition government proposed slashing livestock numbers in the country by 30 percent to meet nitrogen greenhouse gas emission targets.

    The country has already implemented stringent restrictions on new construction, intending to curb nitrogen emissions.

    Dutch bank Rabobank has argued that those new hurdles have slowed home building in the Netherlands, intensifying a housing shortage in the densely populated coastal nation.

    On June 10, Christianne van der Wal, the Dutch Minister for Nitrogen and Nature Policy, unveiled a plan to reduce nitrogen emissions in the Netherlands, according to a statement by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

    The Dutch Provinces are responsible for developing corresponding measures to reach the nitrogen emission reductions between 12 and 70 percent, depending on the area,” the statement said.

    “Farmers in some provinces will be particularly hard hit … and the Dutch government acknowledged ‘there is not a future for all {Dutch} farmers within [this] approach.’”

    The Netherlands Chamber of Commerce says that nitrogen environmental pollution comes from burning fossil fuels but also from manure produced by livestock and fertilizers used in farming. It is estimated that to implement the proposed plan, farmers would need to reduce their cattle herds by 30 percent, according to Barron’s.

    But Yon said Dutch farmers are not polluting the environment and that they’ve been farming the land for thousands of years.

    Nitrogen is being labeled as a pollutant and used as a decoy by the World Economic Forum (WEF) to put the farmers out of business and control the food supply, Yon said.

    Dutch Farmers Protest Against Climate Policy

    Dutch farmers protesting against the government’s plans to reduce emissions of nitrogen oxide and ammonia gather for a demonstration at Stroe, Netherlands, on June 22, 2022. (Aleksandar Furtula/AP Photo)

    The proposed measures sparked protests among Dutch farmers in June, with a large protest joined by truckers which started on July 4.

    Dutch farmers, truckers, and others have used social media in a decentralized way to organize blockades of food distribution hubs across the northwest European country, which resulted in empty shelves in supermarkets.

    The protesters also planned to demonstrate at many of the nation’s airports, specifically mentioning Schiphol Airport and Eindhoven Airport.

    Dutch farmers and truckers realize that their government is following the recommendations of the WEF, which has been trying to take their land and control their food supply, Yon said.

    “If you control the food supply, you control that population completely,” he said.

    Dutch farmers are very educated, and they are both businesspeople and farmers, Yon said. They know that if they lose, they will lose their livelihood, and the consequences of their loss will be felt for many generations, he said.

    “The farmers are rising up. They know they’re going to be put out of business … which would put all of Europe on its knees, foodwise,” Yon said.

    Similar policies are being introduced in Germany and some other countries, Yon said. Some German farmers who want to show their solidarity are also involved in the Dutch protest, he added.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/14/2022 – 02:00

  • Johnstone: Three Illuminating Quotes About The War In Ukraine
    Johnstone: Three Illuminating Quotes About The War In Ukraine

    Authored by Caitlin Johnstone via Medium.com,

    Noam Chomsky, John Pilger, and Chris Hedges have lent their expertise to the subject of the war in Ukraine with some recent comments that help bring some much-needed clarity to an often confusing and always contentious issue.

    Here they are:

    “I’ve spent my career working in the mainstream, and I’ve covered probably seven, eight, nine shooting wars; I’ve never seen coverage so utterly consumed by a tsunami of jingoism, and of manipulative jingoism as this one.”

    ~ John Pilger

    This comment comes from a recent interview with the legendary Australian journalist by the South China Morning Post, and it says so much about the information ecosystem we now find ourselves floundering around trying to understand things in.

    From the earliest days of the invasion it was clear that the western world was being smashed with a deluge of propaganda unlike anything we’ve ever seen before. In the first full month of the conflict, American network TV stations gave more coverage to the war in Ukraine than any other war that the US has been directly involved in, including Iraq and Vietnam. Literal Iraq war architects were some of the first pundits sought out for analysis of the conflict by the mainstream press, and calls for insane escalations against Russia succeeded in pushing the Overton window of acceptable debate in the direction of warmongering extremism and away from support for diplomatic solutions.

    And this was all easily piped into mainstream consciousness because the way had been lubricated by years of Russia hysterica resulting from the mass scale psychological operation known as Russiagate. America’s most dangerous confrontation in generations just so happens to have been preceded by years of media-generated panic about that very same country, despite the Ukraine invasion having ostensibly nothing whatsoever to do with the conspiracy theory that the Kremlin had infiltrated the highest levels of the US government. Heckin’ heck of a coincidence right there, buddy boy.

    “It’s quite interesting that in American discourse, it is almost obligatory to refer to the invasion as the ‘unprovoked invasion of Ukraine’. Look it up on Google, you will find hundreds of thousands of hits. Of course, it was provoked. Otherwise they wouldn’t refer to it all the time as an unprovoked invasion.”

    ~ Noam Chomsky

    This quote, from an interview last month with Ramzy Baroud, is self-evidently true and should be pointed out more often.

    People don’t go adding the same gratuitous adjectives and modifiers to something over and over again unless they’re trying to manipulate how it’s perceived. If your neighbor always referred to his wife as “my wife who I definitely never beat,” you’d immediately become suspicious because that’s not how normal people talk about normal things. We don’t say “round Earth” or “the Holocaust that totally happened,” we just say the words, because their basic nature is not seriously in dispute and we’ve got nothing invested in manipulating or obfuscating people’s understanding about them.

    The need of the political/media class to continually bleat this phrase “unprovoked invasion” over and over again is itself a confession that they know they’re not telling the whole truth. It’s the imperial propaganda version of this classic tweet:

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    Chomsky outlines many of the provocations the US/NATO power structure engaged in prior to the conflict, which many western analysts spent years warning was coming as a result of the provocative actions that were already being taken by the empire. The invasion could easily have been prevented with a little diplomacy and some low-cost, high-reward concessions ike honoring the Minsk agreements and providing assurances of neutrality for Ukraine, but they chose provocation and escalation instead. Add to that the exponentially increased shelling of the Donbas by Kyiv immediately prior to the invasion and you can understand why empire spinmeisters are working so hard to push the “unprovoked” line.

    None of this is to say that Russia is blameless in this war; if I provoke someone into punching somebody they are still morally responsible for having thrown the punch, but I am also responsible for having provoked it. Russia is responsible for its actions, and the US/NATO/Ukraine power structure is responsible for its actions. Putin is responsible for invading, the western empire is responsible for provoking that invasion. Not complicated.

    In the same interview Chomsky also says that “censorship in the United States has reached such a level beyond anything in my lifetime” regarding this war. That assessment plus Pilger’s testimony about war propaganda unlike anything he’s ever seen shows that imperial narrative management is at an all-time high, which wouldn’t be happening unless the empire had some major agendas it wanted to roll out in the coming years.

    “At no time, including the Cuban missile crisis, have we stood closer to the precipice of nuclear war.”

    ~ Chris Hedges

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Echoing the urgent warnings that Stephen Cohen was making at the end of his life, a new article by Hedges outlines the profoundly dangerous games the empire is playing with a nuclear superpower in its continually escalating proxy war against Moscow.

    The observations by Pilger and Chomsky about how much effort is going in to manipulating people’s understanding of this war make sense when you realize that the agendas the empire is trying to roll out against Russia now and then China later down the road stand not only to throw the world into poverty and starvation, but to wipe us off the face of this planet.

    It doesn’t have to be this way. There’s no good reason the world’s most powerful government needs to risk the life of everyone on earth in a bid to secure planetary domination. It is possible for all nations and peoples to simply get along and collaborate toward the common good together. All that would need to happen is for these agendas of total hegemony to be abandoned.

    Unfortunately the managers of empire don’t seem to have any plans to abandon their goal of global conquest anytime soon, so we the ordinary people of this world may end up having to force the issue with them at some point in the interests of our very survival.

    This is a hell of a time to be alive, but man they’ve been keeping it interesting.

    *  *  *

    My work is entirely reader-supported, so if you enjoyed this piece please consider sharing it around, following me on FacebookTwitterSoundcloud or YouTube, or throwing some money into my tip jar on Ko-fiPatreon or Paypal. If you want to read more you can buy my books. The best way to make sure you see the stuff I publish is to subscribe to the mailing list for at my website or on Substack, which will get you an email notification for everything I publish. Everyone, racist platforms excluded, has my permission to republish, use or translate any part of this work (or anything else I’ve written) in any way they like free of charge. For more info on who I am, where I stand, and what I’m trying to do with this platform, click here. All works co-authored with my American husband Tim Foley.

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    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/14/2022 – 00:00

  • Earnings Season Begins As Wall Street Scrambles To Get Ahead Of The Carnage With Over 500 Downgrades In 5 Days
    Earnings Season Begins As Wall Street Scrambles To Get Ahead Of The Carnage With Over 500 Downgrades In 5 Days

    According to Goldman trader John Flood, this morning’s CPI print coming with a much higher than expected 9+ handle will keep institutional investors frozen and the bank expects very little offense to be played over the next few weeks. Furthermore, as discussed earlier, 75bps was thought of as a lock for July but now this: Raphael Bostic signaled the Fed could hike by 100 bps after June’s inflation report. “Everything is in play,” the Atlanta branch chief said. Asked if that included by raising rates by that amount, he replied, “it would mean everything.” Just an hour earlier Nomura made a 100bps rate hike its base case.

    As Flood notes, there were “plenty of incomings on the “sharp reversal higher” in the mkt post CPI.” Here is his explanation why stocks ramped:

    “We flagged that the level of pre-trading (shorting) into this print was quite noteworthy. Institutional positioning remains VERY light…L/Os running record high cash levels and HFs gross/nets in bottom percentiles on 1, 3 and 5 yr look backs. Does it makes sense for mkt to move higher after a 9.1% print and BOC hiking by 100bps…of course not…but that was max pain trade today and this market seeks max pain. Difficult to truly analyze intraday moves with liquidity stuck at the lowest levels we have seen in years (S&P futures top of book liquidity near $3mm again).

    At the end of day, Flood observes, “inflation remains incredibly sticky and earnings growth estimates are coming down. Be very patient buying the dips and use squeezes as opportunities to lighten up. We in for a long summer. Below chart is HF current gross and nets.”

    And speaking of declining earnings growth estimates, tomorrow we get the first bank earnings (preview here) and as Goldman notes, there is plenty of angst regarding cautious commentary on calls which will lead to further sell side downgrades and PT cuts. To underscore just how much concern there is heading into earnings season, Flood notes that he got this nugget which sums up earnings sentiment nicely: “Sell-side analysts are scrambling to get ahead of Q2 earnings; over the last 5 days they’ve downgraded more than 500 names (on a net basis).  Since the Financial Crisis, there’s only been 4 other weeks when that many names have been downgraded that quickly.

    For a slightly more balanced take we go to the first Q2 Earnings Tracker from BofA’s Savita Subramanian (full note available to pro subscribers), in which she previews the starting earnings season as follows: “expect a ‘meet’ at best and a weak guide.” Below are the key highlights:

    Miss more likely than beat

    All of the macro barometers we track that tend to lead earnings results are pointing to a miss – a falling guidance ratio…

    …ailing corporate sentiment…

    …. slowing signs in both consumption and industrial activity plus negative economic surprises.

    But channel checks in Industrials and Software are healthy, and early reporters have beat EPS by a median of 3% – typically early reporters don’t fare as well ahead of a disappointing quarter. Expectations for 2Q have come down 1% versus the average cut of 4% in the last three months, but excluding Energy the cut has been a deeper 5%.

    We expect in-line EPS in 2Q ($55.35/+5% YoY). Weakening guidance will remain the focus: 2H-2023 consensus EPS will come down substantially; 2023 earnings are at least $20 too high.

    Tech: from secular growth & defense to cyclical risk

    Investors who view Tech as defensive, citing stable earnings during the past two recessions, may be disappointed in the next one. Consensus earnings for the Nasdaq 100 have lagged S&P 500 earnings for nine months running. Since the ‘80s, Tech has seen more frequent sales declines than the S&P 500…

    … but has been buoyed by cost benefits from globalization and (more recently) a pull forward in demand. But mega-cap Tech companies could now face the biggest challenges amid de-globalization.

    Capex: should be slowing (pro-cyclical) but now a must-do

    S&P 500 capex surged in 1Q earnings: +20% YoY. Capex has been pro-cyclical, and leading indicators are starting to roll over (e.g., our capex guidance ratio, Business Roundtable CEO Survey).

    But capex may be more necessary than in prior cycles: supply chain challenges revealed by the pandemic, emerging geopolitical risks and ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction pledges have conspired to push mentions of near-shoring capex to record highs.

    Tight labor incentivizes companies to spend to automate; and capital stock is old – we haven’t had a refurbishment capex cycle for decades. At a point when earnings are slowing, mandatory capex could represent an unwelcome draw on free cash: buy capex takers, not spenders.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/13/2022 – 23:42

  • Florida Sheriff Supports Man Who Defended Home With "AK-47-Style Gun"
    Florida Sheriff Supports Man Who Defended Home With “AK-47-Style Gun”

    A Florida sheriff went viral on social media after saying a homeowner with an “AK-47-style gun” won’t be charged for shooting at armed intruders. 

    “He started shooting for his own protection, to get them out of his house and to protect himself,” Escambia County Sheriff Chip Simmons said in a prerecorded video uploaded on Facebook

    Simmons said three suspects broke into the man’s home where at least one pointed a handgun at the homeowner, and the other two shoved him to the ground. The victim tried to reach for his pistol when one of the suspects knocked it to the floor. 

    The victim was able to escape and ran to a back room of the house, where he retrieved an AK-47-style rifle and unleashed a hail of bullets on the three suspects.  

    Simmons said two suspects were identified, and a third person suffered a headshot wound. 

    “We get a report of a third individual that had a wound to the head not long after [the home invasion]. The stories he’s giving us as to how he got shot in the head are inconsistent at best. In short, we don’t believe him. So what we’re looking at is to determine whether this is the third person involved,” Simmons said but did not identify the wounded individual. 

    “Those of you who may ask a question, is the homeowner going to be charged for shooting at these people? Absolutely not,” the sheriff added. “The homeowner’s protecting himself, and in Florida, in Escambia County, you can protect yourself.”

    Not too long ago, another sheriff in Florida said: 

    “If somebody’s breaking into your house, you’re more than welcome to shoot them in Santa Rosa County, and we prefer that you do actually.” 

    One of the highly debated firearm topics is whether or not a semi-automatic rifle is a good home defense gun. Democrats are on a crusade to ban AR-15s and limit magazine capacity that may inhibit a homeowner from defending themselves against multiple intruders. 

    Here’s GOP congressional candidate Jerone Davison from Arizona explaining why “you just might need that semi-automatic [AR-15] and all 30 rounds” in a political ad. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/13/2022 – 23:20

  • Taibbi On 'The New Kremlinology': Reading The New York Times
    Taibbi On ‘The New Kremlinology’: Reading The New York Times

    Authored by Matt Taibbi via TK News,

    On Monday, the New York Times ran a story pegged to a new poll, showing Joe Biden dragging a sub-Trumpish 33% approval rating into the midterms. The language was grave:

    Widespread concerns about the economy and inflation have helped turn the national mood decidedly dark, both on Mr. Biden and the trajectory of the nation… a pervasive sense of pessimism that spans every corner of the country…

    The article followed another from the weekend, “At 79, Biden Is Testing the Boundaries of Age and the Presidency.” That piece, about Biden’s age — code for “cognitive decline” — was full of doom as well:

    Mr. Biden looks older than just a few years ago, a political liability that cannot be solved by traditional White House stratagems like staff shake-ups… Some aides quietly watch out for him. He often shuffles when he walks, and aides worry he will trip on a wire. He stumbles over words during public events, and they hold their breath to see if he makes it to the end without a gaffe.

    Biden’s descent was obvious six years ago. Following the candidate in places like Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire, I listened to traveling press joke about his general lack of awareness and discuss new precautions his aides seemed to be taking to prevent him engaging audience members at events. Biden at the time was earning negative headlines for doing things like jamming a forefinger into the sternum of a black activist named Tracye Redd in Waterloo, Iowa, one of several such incidents just on that trip.

    The New York Times has declared the President’s age acceptable for discussion.

    My former editor at Rolling Stone John Hendrickson, a genial, patient person whom I like a great deal, insisted from afar that Biden’s problems were due to continuing difficulties with a childhood stutter, something John had also overcome. He went on to write a piece for the Atlantic called “Joe Biden’s Stutter, and Mine” that became a viral phenomenon, abetting a common explanation for Biden’s stump behavior: he was dealing with a disability. The Times added op-eds from heroes like airline pilot Captain “Sully” Sullenberger with titles like, “Like Joe Biden, I Once Stuttered, Too. I Dare You to Mock Me.”

    But I’d covered a much sharper Biden in 2008 and felt that even if the drain of overcoming a stutter had some effect, the problems were cognitive, not speech-related. He struggled to remember where he was and veered constantly into inappropriateness, challenging people physically, telling crazy-ass stories, and angering instantly. He’d move to inch-close face range of undecideds like Cedar Rapids resident Jaimee Warbasse and grab her hand (“we’re talking minutes,” she said) before saying, “If I haven’t swayed you today, then I can’t.” I called the mental health professionals who were all too happy to diagnose Donald Trump from afar for a story about the effort to remove Trump under the 25th amendment, and all declined to discuss Biden even off the record for “ethical” reasons.

    This week, all that changed. Add stories like “Biden Promised to Stay Above the Fray, but Democrats Want a Fighter” and Michelle Goldberg’s “Joe Biden is Too Old to Be President Again,” and what we’ve got is a newspaper that catches real history spasmodically and often years late, but has the accuracy of an atomic clock when it comes to recording the shifting attitudes of elite opinion.

    Whether through Emily Bazelon’s Times Magazine piece “The Battle Over Gender Therapy,” or Michael Powell’s “A Vanishing Word in the Abortion Debate: Women,” or even the Editorial Board argument from late May, “The War in Ukraine is Getting Complicated, and America Isn’t Ready,” the Times has become a place where the public often learns about key facts, pressing international controversies, or trends in American thought only once these have been deemed suitable for public consumption by an unseen higher audience. An all time effort in this direction was “Hunter Biden Paid Tax Bill, but Broad Federal Investigation Continues,” in which the paper allowed some of its better reporters to quietly confirm a story about Hunter Biden’s laptop two years after keeping more or less mum as the story was tabbed Russian disinformation.

    Along with companion outlets like the Washington Post and The Atlantic (as pure a reflection of establishment thought as exists in America), the paper in this sense fulfills the same function that Izvestia once served in the Soviet Union, telling us little or even less than nothing about breaking news events (“Can NATO Long Exist?” was among Pravda’s final questions in 1991) but giving us comprehensive, if often coded, portraits of the thinking of the leadership class.

    TK News subscribers can read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/13/2022 – 23:00

  • "Take The Tragedy In Sri Lanka And Multiply By Ten": The Fed Just Lobbed A Financial Nuke That Will Obliterate The Global Economy
    “Take The Tragedy In Sri Lanka And Multiply By Ten”: The Fed Just Lobbed A Financial Nuke That Will Obliterate The Global Economy

    By Larry McDonald, author of the Bear Traps Report

    We are living in a period of mass “Jonestown” economic delusion. Just twenty months ago – central bankers were offering to buy nearly every junk bond known to mankind, dramatically distorting the “true cost of capital.” All the way from crypto to emerging markets – it was a moral hazard overdose. Everyone on earth was borrowing money at fantasy-land bond yields.

    Now, the Fed is promising endless rate hikes and $1T of balance sheet reduction onto a planet with emerging market and Euro-zone credit markets in flames.

    Listen, all I have is an economics degree from the University of Massachusetts, but after having spent the last 20 years trading bonds professionally and embarking on a 20k feet deep autopsy on the largest bank failure of all time – from my seat the current Fed agenda is sheer madness and will be outed very soon.

    The true cost of capital was distorted for so long, we now have hundreds of academics– clueless to the underlying serpent inside global markets. When the 6 foot seven, Paul Volcker walked the halls of the Marriner S. Eccles Building of the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, our planet embraced about $200T LESS debt than we are staring down the barrel at today. Please call out the risk management imbeciles that make any reference of “Powell to Volcker.”

    In 2021, global debt reached a record $303T, according to the Institute of International Finance, a global financial industry association. This is a FURTHER jump from record global debt in 2019 of $226T, as reported by the IMF in its Global Debt Database. Volcker was jacking rates into a planet with about $200T LESS debt. Please call out the risk management imbeciles that make any reference of Powell to Volcker.

    Many economists in 2022 are highly delusional – a very dangerous group indeed. When you hike rates aggressively with a strong dollar you multiply interest rate risk, which was already off the charts coming from such a low 2020 base in terms of yield – it’s a convexity nightmare. Interest rate hikes today – hand in hand with a strong U.S. Dollar – carry 100x the destructive power than the Carter – Reagan era.

    At the same time, you add lighter fluid on to the credit risk fire in emerging markets with a raging greenback. Global banks have to mark to market most of these assets. If global rates reset higher and stay at elevated levels, the sovereign debt pile is in gave danger. The response to Lehman and Covid crisis squared (see above) has left a mathematically unsustainable bill for follow on generations. The Fed CANNOT hike rates aggressively into this mess without blowing up the global economy. We are talking about mass – Jonestown delusion on roids.

    Then Covid-19 placed a colossal leverage cocktail on top. Emerging and frontier market countries currently owe the IMF over $100B. U.S. central banking policy + a  strong USD is vaporizing this capital as we speak.

    A dollar screaming higher with agricultural commodities – priced globally in dollars – is a colossal tax on emerging market countries – clueless academics at the Fed are exporting inflation into countries that can least afford it. Emerging – and
    frontier market countries owe the IMF over $100B – U.S. central banking policy – strong USD, is vaporizing this capital.

    A quarter-trillion dollars of distressed debt is threatening to drag the developing world into a historic cascade of defaults. The number of developing nations trading distressed has doubled, with El Salvador, Ghana, Egypt, Tunisia and Pakistan appearing particularly vulnerable. With the low-income countries, debt risks and debt crises are not hypothetical – try buying oil in USD in an EM currency. A fifth — or about 17% — of the $1.4 trillion emerging-market sovereigns have outstanding in external debt denominated in dollars, euros or yen, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

    Academics at the Fed are exporting inflation into countries that can least afford it – decimating communities all over the planet. The tragedies are piling up. While given cover from their well-placed collection of pawns, tough guy Powell is playing his Volcker act – right out of a scene in a poor man’s poker game. In terms of who ́s actually running the show – emerging market bonds are plunging 10 points a week and Powell wants you to think he’s got pocket Kings.

    Truth is, the global credit risk dynamic has the Aces, and the Fed is looking down at pocket 2s, if that. The IMF has total lending capacity near $1T, Powell is currently wiping out 10% of that. Ultimately, this lost tribe will be coming back, “hat in hand” – yet again to the U.S. taxpayer.

    So now we have global bank balance sheets, stressed by $20T to $30T in mark to market losses from Equities, Treasuries, European government bonds, Crypto, Private equity and Venture capital – in the middle of the worst emerging market credit crisis in decades. All after just 150bps of rate hikes from the Fed? Hello?? Anyone home? There are A LOT of bonds that look like this! Oh – by the way – Egypt owes the IMF $13B, the Fed just lit these liabilities on fire.

    If the Fed keeps its policy path promises, take the tragedy in Sri Lanka and multiply it by ten across the globe over the next six months. Check-mate FOMC.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/13/2022 – 22:40

  • Three Arrows Capital's Remaining Assets Frozen By New York Judge
    Three Arrows Capital’s Remaining Assets Frozen By New York Judge

    On Tuesday, a New York Judge officially froze the assets of Three Arrows Capital, the troubled crypto hedge fund that recently saw its founders disappear in the midst of its very public blowup and bankruptcy. 

    Judge Martin Glenn of the Southern District of New York granted the motion, according to CNBC. The judge said only the assigned liquidators can “transfer, encumber or otherwise dispose of any assets of the Debtor located within the territorial jurisdiction of the United States.”

    Teneo, which was assigned to manage the liquidation, was also given authority to subpoena the two missing co-founders and other companies that have done business with the firm. 

    There have been fears that the firm’s founders may be trying to syphon assets out of the firm ahead of the liquidation. Adam Goldberg, an attorney representing Teneo, said Tuesday: “A key part of this motion is to put the world on notice that it is the liquidators that are controlling the debtor’s assets at this stage.”

    Nic Carter of Castle Island Ventures said resolution could take years: “I wouldn’t hold my breath to see the situation resolved. I’d be extremely concerned about dispositions of assets and trying to extricate them or maybe expropriate assets that are owed to creditors, and siphon those out of the process for the personal usage of the principles here.”

    We noted yesterday that both founders had gone missing. Those founders, Kyle Davies and Zhu Su, had not contacted representatives setup to help liquidate the firm by a BVI judge last week, the report says. However, lawyers for the two men have reportedly said they intend on cooperating. 

    A photo posted by Bloomberg this week shows the company’s headquarters seemingly abandoned….

    3AC has been just one of the major firms – joining names like Celsius and Voyager – that have collapsed as a result of the plunge in bitcoin. Insolvency proceedings in the BVI have started, as has a Chapter 15 bankruptcy filing in the US. 

    Liquidators went to Three Arrows’ office address in Singapore, which “appeared dormant”. Bloomberg reported:

    “…the door was locked, computers were inactive and mail was stuffed under the door. People working in the surrounding offices said they hadn’t seen anyone enter or exit the office recently.”

    Lawyers for the two men were on a Zoom call with the liquidators last week, but it was unclear if Zhu and Kyle were even on the call:

    “While persons identifying themselves as “Su Zhu” and “Kyle” were present on the Zoom call, their video was turned off and they were on mute at all times with neither of them speaking despite questions being posed to them directly.”

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/13/2022 – 22:00

  • Can Biden Break The Alliance Between Saudi Arabia And Russia?
    Can Biden Break The Alliance Between Saudi Arabia And Russia?

    By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

    The Kremlin hopes that the U.S. diplomacy will not seek to turn Saudi Arabia against Russia, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday, commenting on U.S. President Joe Biden’s visit to the Middle East.

    “We certainly hope that the building and the development of relations between Riyadh and other world capitals will in no way be directed against us,” Peskov was quoted as saying at a briefing on Wednesday by Russian news agency TASS.

    “We highly appreciate the work we are doing with our partners, including leading partners such as Saudi Arabia,” Peskov said, asked to comment on President Biden’s visit to the Kingdom.

    President Biden began on Wednesday a visit to the Middle East, which will include a stop in Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude oil exporter and a key partner of Russia in the OPEC+ oil production deal. 

    Despite the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Saudi Arabia and Russia have reiterated several times the importance of their OPEC+ partnership.

    President Biden, for his part, will visit Saudi Arabia for the first time after making a U-turn in his attitude toward Riyadh as gasoline prices in America hit a record high of $5 per gallon last month.

    OPEC has the capacity to raise crude oil production, White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said earlier this week.

    “We do believe there is a capacity for further steps that could be taken,” Sullivan said during a press briefing on Monday.

    President Biden and his team will make the case for higher OPEC oil production during meetings with leaders from the Gulf states in Saudi Arabia, Sullivan said at the briefing.

    “We will convey our general view…that we believe that there needs to be adequate supply in the global market to protect the global economy and to protect the American consumer at the pump,” Sullivan said.

    Analysts say that OPEC’s actual spare capacity could be less than official figures suggest and that, in fact, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—two producers believed to hold most of the world’s spare capacity—cannot pump too much crude oil above current levels for a sustainable period.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/13/2022 – 21:40

  • Ex-CIA Engineer Who Leaked "Vault 7" Tools Convicted Of Biggest Theft In Agency History
    Ex-CIA Engineer Who Leaked “Vault 7” Tools Convicted Of Biggest Theft In Agency History

    A former CIA software engineer who leaked the so-called “Vault 7” tools was convicted Wednesday of causing the largest theft of classified information in the history of the agency.

    Joshua Schulte, who has been sitting behind bars without bail since 2018 and chose to defend himself at trial, told the jury that the CIA and FBI made him a scapegoat for the 2017 WikiLeaks release of up to 34 terabytes of information.

    Separately, Schulte awaits trial on possession of child ponography and transport charges, which he has pleaded not guilty to, according to Military.com.

    As part of his defense, Schulte claimed he was singled out because “hundreds of people had access to (the information),” adding “Hundreds of people could have stolen it.”

    “The government’s case is riddled with reasonable doubt,” he said. “There’s simply no motive here.”

    Assistant U.S. Attorney David Denton countered that there was plenty of proof that Schulte pilfered a sensitive backup computer file.

    He’s the one who broke into that system,” Denton said. “He’s the one who took that backup, the backup he sent to WikiLeaks.”

    The prosecutor also encouraged jurors to consider evidence of an attempted cover-up, including a list of chores Schulte drew up that had an entry reading, “Delete suspicious emails.”

    This is someone who’s hiding the things that he’s done wrong,” Denton said.

    Once the jury got the case, Furman complimented Schulte on his closing argument. -Military.com

    The judge complimented Schulte on his defense, saying “that was impressively done.”

    Depending on what happens here, you may have a future as a defense lawyer.

    In March of 2020, the trial of former CIA computer engineer Joshua Schulte ended in a hung jury on eight counts, including illegal gathering and transmission of national defense information, according to the New York Times.

    As we noted two years ago, according to a 2017 report created by the CIA’s WikiLeaks Task Force and released in June 2020, there were major security lapses at the CIA’s Center for Cyber Intelligence (CCI), which made cyber weapons – including tools to crack into smartphones, hijack smart TVs, or make it look like a foreign adversary hacked someone.

    “In a press to meet growing and critical mission needs, CCI had prioritized building cyber weapons at the expense of securing their own systems,” reads the report. “Day-to-day security practices had become woefully lax.

    CCI focused on building cyber weapons and neglected to also prepare mitigation packages if those tools were exposed. These shortcomings were emblematic of a culture that evolved over years that too often prioritized creativity and collaboration at the expense of security,” the report continues.

    The leak marked the largest data breach in the CIA’s history and included information on hacking tools used by the agency to break into smartphones and other internet-connected devices. 

    The task force noted that due to failures to address vulnerabilities in IT systems, if WikiLeaks had not published the stolen information, the CIA “might still be unaware of the loss — as would be true for the vast majority of data on Agency mission systems.”

    In a letter to Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe on Tuesday, Wyden criticized the intelligence community for its “widespread cybersecurity problems.” –The Hill

    The Vault 7 release – a series of 24 documents which began to publish on March 7, 2017 – reveal that the CIA has a giant arsenal of tools to use against adversaries, including the ability to “spoof” its malware to appear as though it was created by a foreign intelligence agency, as well as the ability to take control of Samsung Smart TV’s and surveil a target using a “Fake Off” mode in which they appear to be powered down while eavesdropping. 

    The CIA’s toy chest also includes:

    • Tools code named “Marble” – which can misdirect forensic investigators from attributing viruses, trojans and hacking attacks to their agency by inserted code fragments in foreign languages.  The tool was in use as recently as 2016.  Per the WikiLeaks release:

    “The source code shows that Marble has test examples not just in English but also in Chinese, Russian, Korean, Arabic and Farsi. This would permit a forensic attribution double game, for example by pretending that the spoken language of the malware creator was not American English, but Chinese, but then showing attempts to conceal the use of Chinese, drawing forensic investigators even more strongly to the wrong conclusion, — but there are other possibilities, such as hiding fake error messages.”

    • iPads / iPhones / Android devices and Smart TV’s are all susceptible to hacks and malware. The agency’s “Dark Matter” project reveals that the CIA has been bugging “factory fresh” iPhones since at least 2008 through suppliers. Another, “Sonic Screwdriver” allows the CIA to execute code on a Mac laptop or desktop while it’s booting up.

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    • The increasing sophistication of surveillance techniques has drawn comparisons with George Orwell’s 1984, but “Weeping Angel”, developed by the CIA’s Embedded Devices Branch (EDB), which infests smart TVs, transforming them into covert microphones, is surely its most emblematic realization.
    • The Obama administration promised to disclose all serious vulnerabilities they found to Apple, Google, Microsoft, and other US-based manufacturers. The US Government broke that commitment.

    “Year Zero” documents show that the CIA breached the Obama administration’s commitments. Many of the vulnerabilities used in the CIA’s cyber arsenal are pervasive and some may already have been found by rival intelligence agencies or cyber criminals.

    In addition to its operations in Langley, Virginia the CIA also uses the U.S. consulate in Frankfurt as a covert base for its hackers covering Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

    CIA hackers operating out of the Frankfurt consulate ( “Center for Cyber Intelligence Europe” or CCIE) are given diplomatic (“black”) passports and State Department cover.

    • The CIA laughs at Anti-Virus / Anti-Malware programs.

    CIA hackers developed successful attacks against most well known anti-virus programs. These are documented in AV defeatsPersonal Security ProductsDetecting and defeating PSPs and PSP/Debugger/RE Avoidance. For example, Comodo was defeated by CIA malware placing itself in the Window’s “Recycle Bin”. While Comodo 6.x has a “Gaping Hole of DOOM”.

    Quite the suite of toys, no?

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/13/2022 – 21:20

  • World Health Organisation: Gender "Is Not Limited To Male Or Female"
    World Health Organisation: Gender “Is Not Limited To Male Or Female”

    Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

    The World Health Organisation has reconfirmed its status as an unscientific politically driven globalist body by officially stating that there are more than two biological genders.

    The WHO has announced that it intends to update its “widely-used gender mainstreaming manual.” 

    The suggestion that there’s a need for a manual on how many genders there are should tell you something about this organisation off the bat.

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    The body says of the manual that it is “updating it in light of new scientific evidence and conceptual progress on gender, health and development.”

    What exactly that ‘scientific evidence’ is is still a mystery.

    The press release from the WHO states that part of its new findings to go into the manual is that “sex is not limited to male or female.”

    The WHO states that it is “going beyond binary approaches to gender and health,” in order “[t]o recognize gender and sexual diversity, or the concepts that gender identity exists on a continuum and that sex is not limited to male or female.”

    The globalist body, in partnership with the United Nations University International Institute for Global Health, also intends to introduce “new gender, equity and human rights frameworks and tools to further support capacity building around these concepts and the integration of their approaches.”

    These, whatever they are, will be ‘finalised and rolled out’ in August and beyond:

    In other words, the WHO is realigning to further push the social engineering message that is already being rammed down our throats ceaselessly via politics, business, policing and what passes for culture and entertainment.

    However, despite its relentless promotion in virtually every sector of society, belief in the reality of this ideology is falling amongst Americans, with only 38% believing biological sex does not determine whether someone is a man or a woman.

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    Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

    In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. We need you to sign up for our free newsletter here. Support our sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Also, we urgently need your financial support here.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/13/2022 – 21:00

  • Putin Using Western Wokeness As A Weapon: WSJ Op-Ed
    Putin Using Western Wokeness As A Weapon: WSJ Op-Ed

    Left-wing wokeism is one of America’s greatest weaknesses, which both Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are using as a weapon against the West, according to a Monday Wall Street Journal Op-Ed by Hudson Institute Fellow Walter Russell Mead.

    After suggesting that Ukraine is giving Russia more than they bargained for on the battlefield thanks to “Western high-tech arms” among other things, Mead notes that Putin has had the most success in the domains of economics and politics, giving the West a run for its money.

    Fears that a Russian gas embargo could cripple European economies and leave comfortable German burghers freezing in the dark next winter have replaced hopes that Western sanctions would bring Moscow to its knees. Thoroughly intimidated by the consequences of an economic war with Russia, Germany is beginning to weasel out of its pledges to increase defense spending. -WSJ

    According to Mead, hopes that the world would unite against Russian aggression has “fizzled,” adding: “Led by China and joined by India and Brazil, countries around the world are choosing trade with Russia over solidarity with the Group of Seven.

    The author suggests that in order to prevent “another major setback” such as those in Georgia, Crimea, the South China Sea and the Middle East, the West must “recalibrate” against the “revisionist powers” (China, Russia and Iran), and “rethink assumptions and conventional doctrines that have demonstrably failed.”

    The West also needs to understand that the revisionist powers “seek the destruction of what they see as an American-led, West-dominated global hegemony,” which is “decadent and vulnerable.”

    Specifically, there are several vulnerabilities the West needs to protect against; including protectionism (“which reduces the economic attraction of the WWestern system for developing countries”), and self-righteous “values-based” entitlements “with its origins in the age of European imperialism.”

    Why else, people ask, are Britain and France permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, while there is only one permanent member from Asia, and none from Africa, the Islamic world or Latin America? What possible justification is there for including Italy and Canada in the exclusive G-7?

    Conventional defenders of the Western world order respond by touting its commitment to universal values such as human rights and the fight against climate change. The current world order may, they acknowledge, be historically rooted in Western imperial power, but as an “empire of values,” the Western world order deserves the support of everyone who cares about humanity’s future. -WSJ

    Wokeness as a weakness

    After laying out the current situation, Mead writes that “the West’s increasingly “woke” values agenda is not as credible or popular as liberals hope,” noting that President Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia this week puts America’s leftist hypocrisy on full display – reminding the world “of the limits on Western commitments to human rights.”

    Many values dear to the hearts of Western cultural leaders (LGBTQ rights, abortion on demand, freedom of speech understood as allowing unchecked Internet pornography) puzzle and offend billions of people around the world who haven’t kept up with the latest hot trends on American campuses. -WSJ

    Mead also notes that woke Western banks are pissing off ‘elites and the public at large’ in developing countries over blocking financing for fossil-fuel extraction as part of their virtue-signaling ESG agenda.

    What’s more, liberal West’s “new, post-Judeo-Christian values agenda divides the West,” as culture wars at home “don’t promote unity overseas.”

    Also, Western leftists have totally lost their shit in front of the world.

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    Bringing it home, Mead writes:

    The moral and political confusion of the contemporary West is the secret weapon that the leaders of Russia and China believe will bring the American world order to its knees. Messrs. Putin and Xi might be wrong; one certainly hopes that they are. But their bet on Western decadence has been paying off handsomely for more than a decade. Western survival and global flourishing require more thought and deeper change than the Biden administration and its European allies can currently imagine. -WSJ

    As we’ve noted many times, Americans were explicitly warned about weakening the West by KGB defector Yuri Bezmenov.

    How do we cure wokeism and actors who peddle it to score points?

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/13/2022 – 20:40

  • Wisconsin Elections Commission Fails To Release Guidance For Clerks After Supreme Court Rules Ballot Drop Boxes Illegal
    Wisconsin Elections Commission Fails To Release Guidance For Clerks After Supreme Court Rules Ballot Drop Boxes Illegal

    Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The Wisconsin Elections Commission (WEC) has yet to release new guidance on how to handle absentee ballots for the Aug. 9 primary election after the state’s Supreme Court ruled that ballot drop boxes are illegal.

    A woman holding her ballot walks past a Vote by Mail Drop Box for the 2020 U.S. Elections in Monterey Park, Calif., on Oct. 5, 2020. (Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images)

    Republicans and Democrats on the commission repeatedly hit an impasse on July 12, when it came to deciding the meaning of the court’s July 8 ruling and how it should be interpreted and handled by more than 1,800 municipal clerks ahead of the primary.

    The court ruled 4–3 that drop boxes that enable people to drop off ballots cast by themselves and others are illegal under state law and voters must return their ballots in person.

    We hold the documents are invalid because ballot drop boxes are illegal under Wisconsin statutes,” Justice Rebecca Bradley wrote in the majority opinion on July 8. “An absentee ballot must be returned by mail or the voter must personally deliver it to the municipal clerk at the clerk’s office or a designated alternate site.”

    The court didn’t address the question of who can put an absentee ballot in the mail.

    While state law says an absentee ballot “shall be mailed by the elector,” federal law allows for disabled people to receive assistance with their ballot, meaning the Supreme Court’s decision could make it more difficult for the disabled, as well as the elderly, to vote.

    Potentially Confusing

    At the commission meeting on July 13, Republicans said the panel should provide guidance to clerks running the elections to help them better understand the ruling, while Democrats argued that it’s unclear what the commission can tell clerks, saying that the proposed guidance went too far and could potentially confuse clerks and spark a slew of lawsuits.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/13/2022 – 20:20

  • Amazon Ring Video Handed To Police Without Users Consent Sparks "Surveillance Crisis Of Accountability"
    Amazon Ring Video Handed To Police Without Users Consent Sparks “Surveillance Crisis Of Accountability”

    While people purchase Ring cameras on Amazon and mount them on their front doors to keep their homes safe, law enforcement agencies use them without the user’s permission, according to a press release published by Sen. Ed Markey (D-Massachusetts).

    The heading of the press release reads, “Senator Markey’s Probe Into Amazon Ring Reveals New Privacy Problem,” highlighting the alarming access to “the close relationship between Ring and law enforcement, including the proliferation of policing agencies on the Ring platform.” 

    Ring, which Amazon bought in 2018, responded to Markey’s June letter and said law enforcement partnerships on its platform had jumped a staggering five-fold increase since November 2019. The electronic doorbell company further revealed footage was handed over to police eleven times this year without the user’s consent – under a so-called “emergency circumstance exception.” 

    “As my ongoing investigation into Amazon illustrates, it has become increasingly difficult for the public to move, assemble, and converse in public without being tracked and recorded,” Markey said.

    Amazon has an agreement with more than 2,100 police departments nationwide under the app called “Neighbors.” Police can use the app to request videos. The lawmaker warned:

    “We cannot accept this as inevitable in our country. Increasing law enforcement reliance on private surveillance creates a crisis of accountability, and I am particularly concerned that biometric surveillance could become central to the growing web of surveillance systems that Amazon and other powerful tech companies are responsible for.” 

    Lawmakers have previously said Amazon funded a lobbying campaign to relax privacy protections in more than two dozen states while harvesting vast amounts of sensitive data on its customers.

    “Amazon shamefully launched a campaign to squash privacy legislation while its devices listen to & watch our lives. This is now the classic Big Tech move: deploy money & armies of lobbyists to fight meaningful reforms in the shadows but claim to support them publicly,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Connecticut) tweeted late last year. 

    Politico pointed out Congress is discussing a federal data privacy law, though it won’t cover Ring sharing data with police. 

    During the pandemic, Ring conducted a 45-day pilot program to live stream Ring cameras in Jackson, Mississippi, to test a surveillance camera network from people’s homes. 

    Ring effectively creates the most extensive corporate-owned, civilian-installed surveillance network the US has ever seen. This is very troubling. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/13/2022 – 20:00

  • Leaked Data Suggest Daily Average Of 441 Unaccompanied Children At Border This Year
    Leaked Data Suggest Daily Average Of 441 Unaccompanied Children At Border This Year

    Authored by Rita Li via The Epoch Times,

    An average of 441 children will cross the U.S.-Mexico border alone every day this year, surpassing last year’s record, data from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) show.

    “DHS projections call for approximately 148,000 and 161,000 [unaccompanied children] referrals to [Health and Human Services Office of Refugee Resettlement] this year. With monthly projections exceeding those seen in FY 2021,” says a document obtained by the Washington Examiner. It reportedly detailed the response plan to the influx from the Department of Health and Human Services as of January 2022.

    Border Patrol prioritizes the transfer of those under the age of 18 who cross the border illegally without a parent or guardian. Another forecast outpaces data from a year earlier, as Customs and Border Protection recorded 147,975 total encounters of single minors in the fiscal year 2021, meaning 405 children per day on average from October 2020 to September 2021.

    Data show more than 101,000 unaccompanied minors have been seized nationwide till May in the current financial year.

    Unlike illegal adult immigrants, U.S. laws provide unaccompanied children cannot be sent back to their country of origin, except for Canada or Mexico, and will be put in border security custody. The majority of the minors apprehended by Border Patrol in 2021 were from Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, or El Salvador, most of whom are between 15 and 17 years old.

    Many children who arrive at the border alone, however, have been transported by human smugglers and cartels.

    Former Border Patrol Chief Rodney Scott told NTD, the sister media of The Epoch Times, in a previous interview that the influx at the southern border has given cartels the green light to human trafficking, sex trafficking, and creating routes to funnel lethal drugs.

    “The cartels have figured out how to leverage [these gaps], and then they bring in the narcotics … and the people that are being trafficked,” Scott said, warning that criminals have also been smuggled into the nation through these channels.

    The country is now seeing the largest number of apprehensions of illegal immigrants at the U.S.–Mexico border in a calendar year in history. Almost 1.9 million arrests were recorded in 2021, up from 479,000 in 2020. After rolling back key Trump-era policies, the Biden administration was also preparing for scenarios of up to 18,000 encounters per day as of late April.

    Meanwhile, annual deportations have fallen dramatically under Biden’s presidency. In the 2021 financial year, 59,011 illegal immigrants were deported, compared to about 185,884 in 2020 and 267,258 in 2019, according to data released by the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

    The Federation for American Immigration Reform estimated in an April report that at the end of 2021, 15.5 million illegal aliens were residing in the United States.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/13/2022 – 19:40

  • Soaring CPI Sparks Fed 'Policy Error' Panic Across Markets
    Soaring CPI Sparks Fed ‘Policy Error’ Panic Across Markets

    The yield curve – short and long – is screaming ‘policy error imminent’ as its aggressive anti-inflation fight will inevitably trigger anything but a soft landing and spark a new round of easing/QE that will once and for all crush the central planners’ credibility.

    2s30s has now inverted…

    Source: Bloomberg

    2s10s is the most inverted since 2000…

    Source: Bloomberg

    STIRs are inferring a greater than 66% chance of a 100bps hike in July (and September almost a lock for a further 75bps hike)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    While rate-hike expectations for 2022 are rising, the subsequent rate-cut expectations – as The Fed bails us out of a deep recession – are soaring too (with over 100bps of cuts now priced in beginning in Feb 2023)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    And Q1 is pricing in a full rate-cut…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Overall, the market is now pricing in a more aggressive hiking cycle than The Fed’s Dots in 2022, and then a dramatically more dovish Fed in 2023 and 2024…

    Source: Bloomberg

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    The bond market was very volatile today with a big spike in yields at the CPI print which rapidly rolled over, leaving only the 2Y yield higher on the day (+9bps) and the long-end drastically lower at the long-end (30Y -9bps, down 14bps from the highs)

    Source: Bloomberg

    And before we leave bond-land, here’s what the yield “curve” looks like now…

    Source: Bloomberg

    The euro tumbled to parity against the dollar for the first time in 20 years after the CPI print…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Stocks plunged on the CPI print (hawkish) then bounced on a WSJ report suggesting a 100bps hike is off the table, but when Fed’s Bostic put it squarely back on the table, things rolled over again and stocks went negative.  This is the 4th straight down-day for the Dow and S&P 500…

    And if you think stocks are pricing in what STIRs are – think again. Stocks are still bipolar and squeeze driven as well as hoping beyond hope that the subsequent easing after The Fed pushes the economy into recession will save the day… The issue is whether they can withstand the path-dependent trajectory required to get that easing…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Crypto also had a chaotic day, ending just marginally higher after puking on the CPI print…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Oil ended the day marginally higher, despite demand destruction signals from the inventory data and a growth-threatening hawkish reaction to the CPI print…

    Gold managed gains, rebounding strongly after puking on the CPI print…

    US and EU NatGas prices ripped higher today (EU now triple the cost of US)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    The good news continues with US gasoline prices continuing to fall, but they remain up dramatically YoY…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Oh and President Biden spewed the same shit against gas retailers!!!

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    …and as we noted earlier, the US price is drastically higher than that in Mexico…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Finally, a Chicago Fed survey on the outlook for the US economy decreased to minus 60 in June, the worst reading since the survey began and worse than at the depths of the COVID lockdowns in 2020…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Do you really think that will lead to a ‘soft landing’?

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/13/2022 – 19:23

  • India Rejects US, EU Calls To Boycott Russian Oil
    India Rejects US, EU Calls To Boycott Russian Oil

    Days ago Reuters reported that Indian imports of Russian oil surged in June, reaching 950,000 barrels of cheap Russian oil per day. From May (where India imported 819,000 bpd) this marked a 15.5% rise, while simultaneously imports from its number one and (now) number three suppliers – Iraq and Saudi Arabia – dropped 10.5% and 13.5%, respectively. And this is a massive leap up from from the 277,000 bpd imported in April.

    The Reuters report further underscored that as the West moves to ban and sanction Russian oil altogether, it’s China and India that now account for 50% of Russian seaborne exports, lured by hugely discounted prices compared to the Brent international benchmark.

    Source: Bloomberg

    As we’ve been detailing, Russia’s energy earnings are already back to pre-war levels after five months of round after round of US and EU sanctions intended to “punish” Moscow and President Vladimir Putin, with analysts widely estimating Russia’s energy sales are now on track to reach $285 billion this year. 

    And the idea in Washington and Brussels all along was that efforts to block or impose a (currently still under discussion) price cap on Russian oil would somehow hinder the ongoing Russian assault on Ukraine. Instead, there appears the opposite effect emerging with blowback on US and EU populations amid higher prices at the pump.

    Yet still, Treasury Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo recently acknowledged the lure of cheap oil could be used to get wayward countries like India or China on board, saying in statements to The Associated Press, “We think that ultimately countries around the world that are currently purchasing Russian oil will be very interested in paying as little as possible for that Russian oil.”

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    But so far they remain the chief, powerful hurdles to the possibility of any effectiveness to any proposed EU price cap plan

    James Hamilton, an economist at the University of California, San Diego, said garnering the participation of China and India will be important to enforcing any price cap plan.

    “It’s an international diplomatic challenge on how you get people to agree. It’s one thing if you get the U.S. to stop buying oil, but if India and China continue to buy” at elevated prices, “there’s no impact on Russian revenues,” Hamilton told the AP.

    “The less revenue Russia gets from selling oil, the less money they have to send these bombs on Ukraine,” he said.

    Currently, US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm is in Sydney for energy talks, where high on the agenda is to get the Quad nations – especially India and Japan – on board with a Russian oil price cap policy. 

    As earlier previewed in Bloomberg:

    Granholm is scheduled to meet with counterparts from the Quad group of nations — Australia, India, Japan and the US — during a visit to Sydney that’ll also touch on cooperation on supply of critical minerals needed for clean energy technologies.

    “We want to put on the table the option of joining a buyers’ group that will have greater market power to be able to lower the price, and therefore lower the price of Russian oil and lower the profits to Putin,” Granholm said Monday in an interview in Sydney.

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    But as emphasized in fresh analysis in Foreign Policy on Wednesday, all indicators are that New Delhi will continue rejecting these pleas “to act” out of the Biden administration. Like with last month’s G7 summit, India’s silence and apparent cold shoulder to the Biden administration’s urgings is speaking louder than words during Quad meetings in Sydney too.

    “Leaders of 12 democracies huddled in an Alpine resort in Bavaria last month,” FP recounted. “They included presidents and prime ministers of the G07 group of industrialized nations as well as their counterparts from India, South Africa, Indonesia, Argentina, and Senegal,” the report continues.

    “But the handshakes, embraces, and jokes couldn’t mask the deep divide among them: While the G07 leaders’ closing communique focused on Russia’s war in Ukraine and efforts to cut the Kremlin’s earnings from energy exports, the 12-nation statement didn’t mention Ukraine, the war, or even oil once.”

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/13/2022 – 19:20

  • Women Now Make Up The Largest Group Of New Gun Owners
    Women Now Make Up The Largest Group Of New Gun Owners

    Via TheFirearmBlog.com,

    The last couple of years has pushed many on-the-fence people from owning zero guns to at least own one gun. Whether it’s out of a newfound enjoyment for shooting sports or for personal protection, people just seem to be wising up to the benefits of being a firearms owner. Of those new gun owners, women now make up the largest group accounting for nearly half of new gun owners over the last five years.

    Photo: Luke C.

    Women Now Make Up the Largest Group of New Gun Owners

    According to a recent study conducted by Harvard University, women now make up 42% of new gun owners accounting for nearly half of all new gun owners over the past 5-years. This number is up 14% from that same span of time and 3.5 million women joined the ranks of new gun owners between January 2019 and April 2021. An NSSF survey partially backs up this claim by the Harvard study by stating that 1/3rd of 2021’s new gun owners were women.

    Photo: Nic Lenze feat. Carly @jerseyl18

    Keen observers of the firearms industry might have also noticed a distinct shift in the way that firearms companies are producing marketing material with many new products like the recent release of the PDP F Series being specifically marketed towards female shooters. Shooting organizations like “Shoot like a Girl” have also cropped up featuring female firearms instructors whose aim is to bring more women into shooting sports and provide them with a more comfortable environment to train in.

    https://www.instagram.com/jerseyl18/

    In the study conducted by Harvard University, one-quarter of the women surveyed said self-defense was the main reason they wanted to purchase a firearm for the first time with many citing the uptick in civil unrest and reduction of law enforcement assets during the summer of 2020. Another reason cited by many women as to why they’ve armed themselves is that many of them are now living alone and feel more comfortable having a firearm in the home for self-defense.

    https://www.instagram.com/jerseyl18/

    Regardless of what is spurring this increase in gun ownership amongst women, I think this is a net positive for the firearms industry as a whole and the women that the industry is trying to serve. Let us know if the ladies that you know are taking on an increased interest in firearms and what they are saying as to how or why they’re getting into firearms.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/13/2022 – 19:00

  • Freeport LNG Terminal Explosion Sparked 450-Foot-High Fireball, Report Says
    Freeport LNG Terminal Explosion Sparked 450-Foot-High Fireball, Report Says

    Freeport LNG’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminal in Texas experienced an explosion last month that created a massive 450-feet-high fireball and had a section of pipe at the facility under inspection several weeks before the incident, according to Bloomberg

    A new filing published on the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s website sheds light on the accident at the second-largest US LNG export plant, which was consuming about 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of natural gas before it shut on June 8.

    IFO Group LLC, a Texas-based fire & explosion, and risk management consultancy, is preparing a release of a report to Freeport and federal regulators by the end of this month about the events that unfolded before the explosion. 

    Contractors performing maintenance work on a storage tank reported hearing unusual sounds the morning of the blast, according to the filing. Plant officials responded by conducting an inspection, but didn’t observe any anomalies. The sounds were reported two days after an investigation into a nearby “pipe movement.”

    The explosion happened along a 700-foot section of pipe where LNG had become trapped, causing pressure to build. The ensuing rupture released a cloud of gas that ignited. The fireball lasted for 5 to 7 seconds, while the fire burned for 30 minutes. Contractors with the firm Puffer-Sweiven performed routine tests in April on a pressure safety valve that’s part of the same system of pipes that subsequently failed. The equipment passed inspection, but Freeport LNG is investigating if a related valve was left closed after the tests. — Bloomberg 

    Bloomberg data shows the terminal impacts 20% of all US LNG exports, much of which has been designated to supply-stricken Europe. Freeport LNG has said the facility could reopen by October, but some analysts have pointed out that the facility could remain closed for much longer

    “The actual process (of reviews, repairs and approvals) will take longer than three months, and potentially take six to 12 months,” said Alex Munton, director of global gas and LNG at consultants Rapidan Energy Group.

    The silver lining is low US stockpiles are being filled up as the export plant in Texas has left more natgas on the grid. This is bad news for Europe.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/13/2022 – 18:40

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 13th July 2022

  • London's Heathrow Airport Caps Daily Passengers At 100,000
    London’s Heathrow Airport Caps Daily Passengers At 100,000

    London’s Heathrow Airport asked airlines Tuesday to stop selling summer tickets as travel chaos worsens amid severe staffing shortages

    “Some airlines have taken significant action, but others have not, and we believe that further action is needed now to ensure passengers have a safe and reliable journey.

    “We have therefore made the difficult decision to introduce a capacity cap with effect from 12 July to 11 September. Similar measures to control passenger demand have been implemented at other airports both in the UK and around the world,” Heathrow CEO John Holland-Kaye said in a statement.

    The new limit will be 100k daily passengers through the global aviation hub, and considering the departing seat average of around 104k — this means 4k passengers will be cut from flights daily

    “By making this intervention now, our objective is to protect flights for the vast majority of passengers at Heathrow this summer and to give confidence that everyone who does travel through the airport will have a safe and reliable journey and arrive at their destination with their bags.

    “We recognise that this will mean some summer journeys will either be moved to another day, another airport or be cancelled and we apologise to those whose travel plans are affected,” Holland-Kaye continued. 

    He also said airport staffing and airline pilot shortages are a twin-fold blow for the travel industry, primarily responsible for flight disruptions over the last several months. 

    British Airways recently slashed 28,000 flights due to staff shortages. A spokesperson for the airline told The Independent last week that trimming thousand of flights from its schedule will allow the airline to be more flexible and minimize delays and cancelations during the peak travel season. 

    Heathrow’s cap of 100k daily passengers and airlines reducing flights appears to be the move to restore confidence in European flying. 

    So what happens if this cunning planning doesn’t work and sparks even more travel disruptions?

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/13/2022 – 02:45

  • Leftist Party In Germany Wants To Give Free Crystal Meth To Drug Addicts
    Leftist Party In Germany Wants To Give Free Crystal Meth To Drug Addicts

    Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

    A leftist party in Germany is pushing for a new policy that would see free crystal meth given to drug addicts in an effort to “reduce the pressure” on the prosecution of drug dealers.

    Yes, really.

    The Left Party has filed a motion in parliament that states drug users must be “consistently protected from criminal prosecution” and supplied at taxpayer expense.

    “As reported by the German news outlet Junge Freiheit, hard drugs such as methamphetamine would be distributed to addicts under close “therapeutic support” to bring down criminal prosecutions; other hard drugs such as morphine, ecstasy, cocaine, LSD, and even heroin would no longer be prosecuted if users were found purchasing or possessing small quantities,” reports Remix News.

    Decriminalizing hard drugs would follow in the footsteps of policies already implemented that have led to federal states not prosecuting people who are found in possession of small quantities of marijuana.

    Amphetamine abuse is already a massive problem in Germany, with crystal meth offenses rising in 2020 by 18.9 percent, a number that has likely significantly worsened since those figures were published as a result of COVID-19 lockdowns.

    Leftists in Germany previously began a national conversation about legalizing crystal meth back in 2015.

    The enlightened liberal policy of handing out free drugs and needles to drug addicts while refusing to prosecute those found in possession of hard drugs has led to an absolute nightmare in places like San Francisco and Los Angeles.

    In San Francisco, where millions of free needles are given to drug addicts every year, the streets are littered with them while semi-conscious meth heads and heroin junkies lie prostrate on the sidewalk.

    Good luck with that, Germany!

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    In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Get early access, exclusive content and behinds the scenes stuff by following me on Locals.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/13/2022 – 02:00

  • Why All The Attacks On Dissent?
    Why All The Attacks On Dissent?

    Authored by Marie Hawthorne via The Organic Prepper blog,

    Attacks on dissent have ramped up. The Organic Prepper was just downgraded, as Daisy wrote about recently. We’re not alone.  

    It’s not just alternative media sites like ZeroHedge or Mercola. Mainstream media turns on their own people the second they ask the wrong questions. For example, in 2020 and 2021, British nursing educator and YouTuber Dr. John Campbell spouted the official Covid narrative, assuring everyone that the shots were safe and effective. He was considered a trusted purveyor of health information. However, in 2021, he discussed data surrounding ivermectin usage and thought it showed promise. His Wikipedia page was immediately changed to label him a purveyor of misinformation.

    Downgrading websites and professional humiliation have not been the only methods used to crush dissent. 

    Tucker Carlson just did a segment outlining the FBI’s attacks on Joe Biden’s political opponents.

    Watch for yourself. Someone filmed Trump advisor John Eastman getting his phone confiscated by the FBI. He repeatedly asks them for a warrant, which they don’t give him until after taking his phone. He’s never been charged with anything. This is a clear violation of the Fourth Amendment. 

    But our current crop of politicians seems to find the Constitution outdated.

    Right now, First Amendment rights are being violated on a massive scale. It’s getting more and more difficult to communicate online unless you adhere to specific narratives. As far as this site is concerned, most of our facts come from blue-checked sources or personal experiences. We just ask people to think about what’s being presented and how it may affect their day-to-day lives.  

    There should be nothing wrong with asking people to do their own research and think for themselves, but unfortunately, that’s been labeled “malinformation.” The Election Infrastructure Government Coordinating Council says, “Malinformation is based on fact, but used out of context to mislead, harm, or manipulate.” 

    Well, who decides the official context? The entire definition is predicated on the notion that one context exists. Anything outside of that lumps you in with malicious actors.

    So, what’s behind the current push to bury alternative news?  

    Maybe it’s because things are finally crashing. I think mainstream media wants us to stay mad at each other over abortion rights, gay rights, or whatever current thing will distract us. They don’t want us to pay attention to the real issues. Notice how NewsGuard tried to get Daisy to declare a side? 

    They want us to divide ourselves into camps. They do not want us sitting back, watching, thinking, and supporting each other in our various prepping endeavors.  

    Sure, there are plenty of people that still laugh at prepping. But time keeps proving the conspiracy theorists right. In November 2020, the OP published an article about so-called conspiracy theories that had come true that year. A lot of people are seeing that the narrative pressed by our government administration and major news outlets simply doesn’t match up with what they encounter in their day-to-day lives. The public is gradually becoming more open to alternative explanations, but the people currently holding power cling to it more and more tightly. They know they can’t win via reasoned debate, so they kick anyone they dislike off social media platforms or make it impossible for small, independent sites to make enough money to stay operational.   

    The public is becoming more open to alternative news because disaster signals are all around us. The OP has run multiple articles about food and energy crises, but honestly, they just get worse every minute. It’s not just American policies either. Politicians throughout the Western world, on the one hand, decry inflation and “price gouging,” but on the other, implement policies that throw fuel on the fire.  

    For example, on June 10, the Dutch government issued a plan to curb nitrogen emissions by between 12 and 70 percent. The government freely admitted that “There is not a future for all [Dutch] farmers within [this] approach.”

    This defies reason.

    The Netherlands is the world’s fifth-largest food exporter, and they’re forcing farmers out of business for the sake of “climate change” as people in Third World countries starve.

    Meanwhile, in the U.S., our own government continues to make life harder and harder for farmers to do business. The Securities and Exchange Commission wants companies to disclose their carbon emissions throughout their entire supply chain. 

    The kind of legal and technical expertise that this kind of reporting requires will push small, independent companies, including farms, out of business.

    The SEC is still finalizing plans regarding the implementation of its reporting requirements. Issues such as this greatly influence what food is available and how much we pay for it. But are we hearing about this from politicians? No, they’re too busy blaming Russia, and the above-referenced article is not front-page news.  

    The energy situation warrants our attention as well. President Biden has been blaming everyone from Russians to gas station owners for high prices, but what has he done this week?  

    On July 1, the Department of the Interior invited comments for its Proposed Five-Year Program for Offshore Oil and Gas Leasing.

    Without getting overly technical, when we were energy independent during the Trump administration, the Draft Proposed Program proposed 47 lease sales for future oil and gas projects. The current administration is asking people to weigh in on whether we should have eleven or zero. What this means is that we will definitely be producing less energy. The only question is, how much less.  

    Our administration does not try to hide its agenda. Secretary Deb Haaland said, “From Day One, President Biden and I have made clear our commitment to transition to a clean energy economy. Today, we put forward an opportunity for the American people to consider and provide input on the future of offshore oil and gas leasing. The time for the public to weigh in on our future is now.”

    Well, with Biden’s historically low approval ratings, I’m pretty sure the public is weighing in. 

    The administration is just not listening.

    And Europe keeps going from bad to worse. Protests over fuel prices have erupted. Spanish farmers are blocking highways, and Dutch fishermen are blocking ports. Dutch farmers have also been spraying their government buildings with manure to protest the climate regulations. The S is literally HTF in the Netherlands right now.

    Norwegian oil workers are striking because their pay has not increased at a rate commensurate with inflation. This will hit the rest of Europe particularly hard because, after Russia, Norway is Europe’s biggest energy provider.  

    My 25-year-old idealistic self might have thought people are being greedy and that we should all band together for the sake of Ukraine, climate change, or whatever. But lower- and middle-income people worldwide are being asked to make huge sacrifices at the same time that the wealth of billionaires has exploded like never before. By 2020, the wealth of the world’s ten richest men increased from $700 billion to $1.5 trillion. Meanwhile, the rest of us are supposed to eat less meat and take fewer showers. Oh, and hundreds of millions of people in the Global South are at risk of starvation.  

    (It’s probably a good time to check out our free QUICKSTART Guide to how to starve the beast.)

    The stable world in which most of us grew up is falling apart, and we have a right to know why. 

    We have a right to know what policies have led to such dramatic wealth transfers; why we were energy independent  only three years ago and now are begging the Saudis for more oil; why young parents can’t find formula; why much of the U.S. no longer feels like a First World nation.

    And we have the right to question the mainstream narrative. Whether you’re a trucker coping with $6/gal diesel or a medical technician short on laboratory supplies, problems surround us all. And yet we’re just being told to point fingers at Russia and corporate greed.

    The ability to discuss problems publicly facilitates understanding and, hopefully, solutions. 

    The lockdowns during Covid had some unexpected effects. Look at remote schooling. On the one hand, it was miserable, particularly for lower-income children. However, it gave parents a chance to see what children are actually being taught in schools, which has led to parental pushback against divisive education programs 

    Parents became more informed and took action.

    In my area, the already-stark divisions between urban and rural became more so. Driving downtown in the city for much of 2020, it was a ghost town; in the town where I get my animals processed, the only change was that I saw more children out and about. I saw kids riding shotgun as their parents hauled cattle trailers because the schools were closed and, well, you can’t process cattle remotely.  

    Many people holed up dutifully as we were all told to quarantine. For those of us that couldn’t, for one reason or another, we started talking a lot more.  

    (Want uninterrupted access to The Organic Prepper? Check out our paid-subscription newsletter.)

    Klaus Schwab saw Covid as an opportunity to “reimagine” society.

    You know what? I see it as a chance to reimagine things too. I see it as a chance for people in all parts of the economy to openly discuss what’s going on. If enough people from enough different walks of life can listen to each other, we may find some common solutions. The real division is not so much red vs. blue. It is people that just want to work, raise their kids, and leave everyone else alone vs. autocrats and those willing to game the system.  

    Authoritarian control and regulatory overreach are behind most of our current problems. We may get most emotional over Roe vs. Wade, or trans rights, or whatever, but the reasons why so many people cannot pay bills and are using their credit cards to buy gas are not “culture war”-type issues.  

    Our problems right now stem from decades of letting local control slip through our fingers. At this stage of the game, I’m not sure I see a way to fix our problems without a great deal of economic stress and uncertainty. 

    But, as preppers, we hope for the best and plan for the worst, and right now, increasing numbers of people want to plan for the worst. Sites like the OP are here for people that want to start planning.

    Americans have a long history of making do.

    Whether you want to become more self-sufficient by producing your own food, energy or even homeschooling your kids, we all have options to exercise a little more control over our own lives.  

    The Founding Fathers never envisioned the U.S. as a globe-spanning empire where everyone lives in a cushy suburb and has access to every possible convenience. The U.S. was simply supposed to be a country where, if you worked hard and were honest, you could keep the fruits of your labor. I would love it if, after the current upheavals, we could go back to that, but we have to make it through what our president has called this “incredible transition” first. 

    There are still a lot of resourceful, hardworking, independent people out there, people who can survive a lot. But we will all function better if we can communicate with each other, both for practical advice and emotional support. Collectively, we have a lot to share if we can avoid being divided and distracted.   

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/12/2022 – 23:45

  • "Extremely Unusual Event": F/A-18 Super Hornet 'Blown Off' Carrier In Violent Storm
    “Extremely Unusual Event”: F/A-18 Super Hornet ‘Blown Off’ Carrier In Violent Storm

    The U.S. Navy released an official statement about a F/A-18 Super Hornet assigned to the USS Harry S. Truman, an aircraft carrier stationed in the Mediterranean Sea, was lost at sea last week near Naples, Italy, after it was “blown overboard due to unexpected heavy weather.” 

    The incident occurred last Friday while the aircraft carrier was conducting an underway replenishment (UNREP) mission where support vessels were transferring fuel, munitions, and other supplies to the Truman. The Navy noted during UNREP that a major storm produced high winds and torrential rains. 

    “This is an extremely unusual event,” David Titley, a former commander of the Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command, told WaPo in an email. “U.S. Navy ships and aircraft are designed and built to withstand heavy weather, which they do on a routine basis.”

    The Navy did not release the location of the incident, but days before, the Defense Department tweeted that a Super Hornet “broke the sound barrier over the Ionian Sea,” an area of water near Southern Italy. 

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    Questions remain how a $65 million fighter jet, weighing more than 32,000 pounds, was dislodged from the flight deck and swept into the sea. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/12/2022 – 23:25

  • Historic Fails Of Transactions Show Japanese Bond Market Broken
    Historic Fails Of Transactions Show Japanese Bond Market Broken

    By Masaki Kondo, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and reporter

    Historic failures of Japanese bond transactions will leave investors worried about the sustainability of the Bank of Japan’s easing and keep alive speculation of a future policy tweak.

    The impact of the BOJ’s shock intervention in the bond market in June is quite visible in the central bank’s latest report on transaction failures. Sellers in the JGB market failed to deliver securities worth 3.53t yen in face value last month, the second-largest amount on BOJ data going back to 2001.

    The central bank abruptly offered to buy unlimited quantity of cheapest-to-deliver securities last month to squeeze short bets in futures, causing a dash for the debt. The BOJ owned 76% of the CTD note as of Tuesday, leaving little in the secondary market.

    The difference between cash bond and futures prices has almost normalized to pre-June levels, while demand for bond borrowing from the central bank has been slowing this month. The surge in fails shows just how extreme the BOJ’s bond operations have become. Though Japan’s bond market is regaining its calm on the surface, dislocation will continue as long as the central bank maintains its large presence in the market.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/12/2022 – 23:05

  • US Bureau Says "Leaked" 10.2% CPI Report Was Fake, So Here's What To Expect
    US Bureau Says “Leaked” 10.2% CPI Report Was Fake, So Here’s What To Expect

    The US CPI report will be the main highlight tomorrow, and will also serve as what JPMorgan calls a “market clearing event.”  While the BBG median consensus expects +8.8% YoY vs. +8.6% in June, Goldman and JPM expect 8.88% and 8.7% respectively, with whisper numbers at, or above, 9.0%

    One bit of “good” news, according to Deutsche Bank, is that yesterday the NY Fed’s long-run consumer inflation expectations series showed a decent dip and helped encourage a big rally in bonds as the tug of war in the asset class continues.

    Of course, much of this early optimism was reversed by today’s fake CPI report “leak” which emerged around noon and signaled a 10.2% Y/Y CPI print, but was only noticed by traders and algos in the last hour of trading, sending stocks tumbling to session lows driven by a huge sell program in a very illiquid market…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    … before people pointed out that the report was i) fake and ii) had been around for hours.

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    So paranoid is the market, and so gullible about “bad news” tomorrow, that none other than the US government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics had to ease traders’ nerves, saying that the “leaked” report was indeed a forgery.

    “We are aware of a fake version of the June 2022 Consumer Price Index news release that is being circulated online,” BLS spokesperson Cody Parkinson told Bloomberg said in an emailed statement.

    Which of course is not to say that tomorrow’s CPI print won’t be 10.2%, although that would be especially cruel. As a reminder, a on Monday we showed why a case for a sharply higher 9% headline CPI print tomorrow is possible, but that most likely will also be the peak as numbers grind lower afterwards, at least until gasoline prices soar again.

    In any case, back to the forgery, none other than JPMorgan trader Andrew Tyler wrote in his EOD note (available to pro subs) that “several clients have pointed to a leaked CPI number that is circulating around social media. I have been told it is an ugly number with some suggesting that it will print above 10%. Other media sites now saying the early release is a fake.”

    With that in mind, Tyler says to keep an eye on the energy component as we have seen a material fall in gasoline prices that will not be fully incorporated into Headline CPI, something which the White House has repeatedly said in the past two days (if forgetting that the only reason energy prices have plunged is because of the coming Biden recession).

    In any case, below is a chart of gasoline with highlights for May and June price performance. Separately, Rates vol and Equity vol  have divergence recently “so beware that CPI could drive both higher.”

    Fake leaks aside, this is what JPM’s chief economist thinks will happen tomorrow

    • JPM chief economist Michael Feroli thinks CPI prints 1.1% MoM and 8.7% YoY but given the labor market data from last week, the Fed is locked in to 75bps for July. He sees Core CPI rising 0.45%, a softer number than recent prints.
    • Private Payrolls are now above February 2020 levels. JOLTS job openings fell MoM but there are approximately 1.9x job openings per each unemployed person, this compares to ~1.2x in Feb 2020.
    • The Nat’l Federation of Independent Business reports that ~50% of small businesses had job openings in June with 48% saying they hiked compensation (BBG).
    • Feroli updated his Fed forecast where he sees the Fed ending its hikes in December with a 3.25% – 3.50% range which means that the Fed would hike 75bps in July, 50bps in September, and then 25bps in both November and December with no further hikes in 2023.
    • Many conversations surround peak inflation following the publication of the below chart from our inflation Phoebe White (full note is here). Longer-term inflation expectations have essentially round-tripped the move following the beginning of the RU/UKR conflict.

    And while JPMorgan is slightly on the dovish side of the 8.8% consensus, Goldman is on the other side, with the bank today publishing a note (available to pro subs), in which it says that it expects a 1.15% increase in headline CPI in June, slightly above consensus expectations for a 1.1% increase and corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 8.88% (not 8.87% or 8.89%). On the other hand, Goldman sees slightly easier core prints with a 0.50% increase in June core CPI, below consensus expectations for a 0.6% increase and corresponding to a 0.3pp decline in the year-over-year rate to 5.71%.

    Goldman highlights four key component-level trends for the June report:

    1. Shelter. The most important category to watch in Wednesday’s report is the large and persistent shelter component (as we predicted it would be last summer when the macro-tourists, perma-idiots and other central bankers were still saying inflation would be transitory), which accelerated unexpectedly to its fastest monthly pace since 1991 in May. Goldman expects sequentially slower shelter inflation in the June report (rent +0.57% and OER 0.50%), reflecting slowing gains in the alternative rent measures that make up our shelter tracker and an OER drag from imputed utilities.

    2. Nondurable goods or the bullwhip effect. Following the product shortages of 2021, inventories have now substantially overshot their pre-pandemic levels at large retailers like Target and Walmart. Some companies have already said that they anticipate cutting prices in coming months in order to reduce inventory stocks to more normal levels, and Goldman expects to see a 1% drop in apparel prices in June.

    3. Auto and parts. On the other side, expect further increases in auto prices (new +1.4%, used +1.1%, parts +1.5%) due to continued global supply disruptions, most notably the Ukraine-Russia war and China lockdowns. US automakers have been more optimistic about raising production later this year, which should eventually lead to more moderate growth in new car prices.

    4. Health care. The CPI’s health insurance component closely tracks annual changes in insurer profitability. Goldman forecasted the sharp acceleration seen this year last fall based on the insurer data, and expects this small category to continue to make an outsized contribution until new insurer data are incorporated in October, at which point it is likely to turn quite negative for the next year. Goldman forecasts a +0.49% (mom sa) increase in medical services prices this month.

    Going forward, Goldman expects monthly core CPI inflation to remain strong in late summer, picking back up to 0.53% in September, before eventually falling to 0.30% by December 2022. Absent a major recession (or depression), the bank forecasts year-on-year core CPI inflation of 5.5% in December 2022, 2.4% in December 2023, and 2.6% in December 2024.  The forecast reflects a negative swing in health insurance prices and a larger slowdown in goods than in services inflation next year.

    More detailed previews of tomorrow’s CPI available to pro subs in the usual place.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/12/2022 – 22:45

  • We're "Losing The Fight Against Monkeypox" …Apparently
    We’re “Losing The Fight Against Monkeypox” …Apparently

    Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,

    According to the New York Times the US is currently “losing the fight with Monkeypox”.

    That’s probably news to you.

    After all, given the fact the US has around 700 cases of Monkeypox (around 0.0002% of the population), that the entire world only 8000 “cases” (about 0.0001%), and that there have been just 3 reported deaths…well, you’d be forgiven for not realising there was a fight at all, let alone that we were losing.

    It’s really more of a kerfuffle. At worst. Perhaps a fracas.

    That is – of course – assuming there is any monkeypox “outbreak” at all, something we should never take on faith, especially in the post-Covid world.

    Nevertheless, the NYT is sure…

    There probably will be many more infections before the outbreak can be controlled, if at this point it can be controlled at all.

    The US isn’t the only place getting a fresh batch of monkeypox fear porn this week.

    Five days ago it was reported that Australia had recorded its first “case”, with the under-stated headline

    KILLER VIRUS SUDDENLY SPREADS IN AUSTRALIA

    …clearly this went too far, even for the mainstream media, who quietly reworded the title a few hours later.

    Not to be outdone, two days later New Zealand announced their first monkeypox case was isolating at home.

    And just 15 minutes ago, at the time of writing, The Guardian published a news story headlined:

    Efforts to curb UK monkeypox outbreak inadequate, warn experts

    So, what is the cause of mankind’s imminent loss to the monkeypox peril? Well they really couldn’t be clearer about that – we’re not testing enough.

    The NYT goes on about this at length:

    the response in the United States has been sluggish and timid, reminiscent of the early days of the Covid pandemic, experts say, raising troubling questions about the nation’s preparedness for pandemic threats.

    […] The first cases of monkeypox were reported in May, but tests will not be readily available until sometime this month.

    […] The first missteps in the U.S. response to monkeypox were in testing. As in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic, samples from monkeypox patients are being funneled to the CDC for final diagnosis, a process that can take days.

    Slate agrees, headlining “We Need to Keep Better Track of Monkeypox” and quoting on “expert”:

    Testing is the key piece in getting answers to these questions, and currently we simply are not doing enough of it.”

    We’ve seen this movie before, we know how it goes from here.

    Since, as the NYT points out, Monkeypox tests will be “readily available sometime this month”, we can expect a BIG spike in cases coming up.

    Far from being recognised for what it is – a huge number of false positives caused by PCR tests – this increase in cases will be sold as the “true size of the outbreak” after weeks of calling current “case” numbers “likely underestimates”.

    The solution, we know, will be “increasing vaccine coverage” or “helping immunize the most vulnerable” or some buzz phrase like that.

    But oh no! We don’t have enough vaccines!

    At least, according the New York Times, and LA Times, and CBS, and Science and New York Magazine and NPR and NBC and the New York Post and…

    …it’s the prevalent message, is what I’m trying to say.

    Don’t worry though, a VERY familiar hero is about to ride over the horizon on a white horse:

    Moderna is investigating potential monkeypox vaccines at a preclinical level, using its mRNA platform,”

    Yes, Moderna started working on a new mRNA monkeypox vaccine back in May…so by Covid rules they’re probably nearly done by now.

    Just inject in precisely one person, and if they don’t die instantly on the spot then it’s safe.

    …and if they DO then they were already sick and the trial data is compromised and monkeypox is such an emergency we should grant it approval anyway. You can read the trial data in 2097.

    We know how this works.

    Tests to create the “problem”, vaccines to “solve” the “problem”. Both of them result in vast amounts of public money disappearing into bottomless private pockets.

    There’s a lot of fog around monkeypox – we don’t know, in a lot of ways, where it’s going or what it’s even for. The narrative is only half-formed. First growing, then shrinking, then growing again.

    It had a name change that never really materialised, and the decision to focus it on sexual transmission – especially among “men who have sex with men” (I don’t know why they ALL use that phrase and not “gay men”) – is one I just can’t puzzle out yet.

    But while it’s yet to take definitively pick a size, direction or speed, it’s taking a very familiar shape: Tests and vaccines.

    It’s always tests and vaccines.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/12/2022 – 22:25

  • Beijing Scraps China's First COVID Vaccine Mandate In Just 48 Hours After Furious Social Response
    Beijing Scraps China’s First COVID Vaccine Mandate In Just 48 Hours After Furious Social Response

    On paper, the US is the land of the free and home of the brave, while China is a tyrannical, authoritarian state where individuals have no rights and where the political oligarchy always gets its way. In reality, it’s usually the opposite, especially when the people remember they are not snowflakes.

    With much the US and Europe bitching and moaning but ultimately acquiescing to every incremental round of mandatory experimental mRNA-based covid vaccines (we are not even talking about those mentally unstable they/thems who demand the government strip them of their last freedom and who will be wearing a mask in their grave to signal not only their profound virtue but their willingness to lap up any amount of fecal matter shoveled by the government), a few million non-snowflake Chinese showed how it can be done.

    As Bloomberg reports, last week, Beijing’s city leadership rolled out China’s first Covid-19 vaccine mandate last week. The policy made boosters mandatory for some professions, while entry to busy public venues like movie theaters and gyms was restricted to the vaccinated. Unlike Europe and the US where such mandates are now a way of life as the population is too terrified to oppose the state, in Beijing the public reacted far less snowflakily, with many residents turning to social media to declare the mandate an illegal usurpation of their rights. Beijing’s response was just as quick: Less than 48 hours after announcing the policy, the city government rescinded it.

    Instead, people will be able to enter all public venues if they can simply provide a negative Covid test result that’s no older than 72 hours and have their temperature checked, an unidentified official said in an interview with state-backed Beijing Daily that was published late Thursday night. The city will continue to promote vaccination on a voluntary, informed and consent basis, the official said, something which just one year ago would have sounded like an alien world of utopian liberty to American citizens.

    The policy, announced Wednesday and intended to come into effect on July 11, would have limited entry to public venues such as cinemas, museums, and theaters to only vaccinated people, and required workers in certain professions to get booster shots.

    “The reversal shows the power of public opinions,” Hu Xijin, former editor-in-chief at the Communist Party-backed Global Times and an influential commentator, said on his official Weibo account. “The Chinese society is dominated by government. They timely backed up in the face of a public pushback. That means they accept the public’s view of the vaccine mandate as illegal.”

    A health worker takes a swab sample at a swab collection site in Beijing on July 7. Photographer: Noel Celis/AFP/Getty Images

    As Bloomberg’s Adam Minter writes, while China’s authoritarians rarely back down because of public opposition, by doing so in this case, Beijing’s authorities offered a reminder of how carefully they monitor public opinion and struggle to manage it. Indeed, it’s also a reminder that at the end of the day, it’s the people who hold the power, no matter how diligently the propaganda press will try to convince the people otherwise, and no matter how armed to the teeth the state’s enforcement powers may be.

    By folding to public pressure, Bloomberg notes that Beijing “inadvertently revealed that their ability to control and channel public anger isn’t absolute.” The media giant then adds that “like their counterparts in democratic countries, China’s leaders must account for populist anger. And at a time of surging Chinese nationalism, those populist currents can have damaging consequences for peace and stability in Asia and the world.”

    Which is hilarious because whereas “dictatorial” China reversed on vaccine mandates in just 2 days, “democratic counterparts” can impose any amount of health experiments on the population at will and largely without objections.

    And while “Democratic” nations, especially those run (for now) by so-called “Democrats” have become completely oblivious to public opinion – especially if it opposes their ruthless, authoritarian ambitions – it is the authoritarian states that actually do care: as Bloomberg notes, the internet — and especially social media — complicated both tasks, requiring huge investments in human and machine monitoring and content-generation. In 2014, the Communist Party-owned Beijing News reported that public and private Chinese entities employ more than 2 million public opinion “analysts.” Among other roles, they “collect the opinions and attitudes of netizens, organize them into reports, and submit them to decision makers.” These days, even relatively minor agencies — such as the Beijing International Horticultural Expo Coordination Bureau — purchase public opinion analysis.

    Finally, as Goldman’s Rich Provorotsky writes in his morning note today, “although unlikely to change abruptly, something to watch if population’s frustration leads to a change in zero covid policy?” That assumption may soon be tested, while Beijing scrapped mandatory vaccines, Shanghai may be facing another round of lockdowns: here’s Bloomberg.

    Tension is spreading through Shanghai as residents watch the Covid-19 caseload tick higher, fueling fears they’re headed back into lockdown little more than five weeks after exiting a bruising two-month ordeal.

    The city reported 59 new infections for Monday, the fourth day in a row case numbers have held above 50. The sharp rise from single digits about a week ago follows the detection of the more contagious BA.5 sub-strain of the omicron variant, which has triggered two additional rounds of mass testing between Tuesday and Thursday this week across nine of the financial hub’s 16 districts, as well as other areas where cases have been found.

    Bottom line: China’s strict Covid Zero approach is “once again being tested as outbreaks flare across the country amid the arrival of a sub-variant that has fueled rising caseloads elsewhere” only this time the public may be sensing that opposition to the highly unpopular government response to the Wu-flu is beyond the required tipping point and following in the footsteps of Beijing, tens of millions of Shanghai residents may soon take matters into their own hands/

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/12/2022 – 22:05

  • California Law Professor, Senator Clash Over Whether Men Can Get Pregnant
    California Law Professor, Senator Clash Over Whether Men Can Get Pregnant

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

    Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and a California law professor on July 12 clashed during a Senate hearing over whether only women can get pregnant.

    Khiara Bridges, a law professor at the University of California, Berkeley who was called as a witness by Senate Democrats, used the phrase “people with the capacity for pregnancy” several times during the hearing, which focused on legal concerns following the Supreme Court striking down Roe v. Wade.

    Hawley asked if Bridges was referring to women, prompting the exchange.

    “Many women, cis women, have the capacity for pregnancy. Many cis women do not have the capacity for pregnancy. There are also trans men capable of pregnancy, and nonbinary people,” Bridges claimed.

    Cis is a word used by activists to describe people who identify as their natural sex from birth. Transgender refers to people who identify otherwise.

    “This isn’t really a women’s rights issue” then, Hawley said.

    “We can recognize that this impacts women while also recognizing that it impacts other groups. Those things are not mutually exclusive,” Bridges said.

    “I want to recognize that your line of questioning is transphobic and it opens up trans people to violence by not recognizing them,” she added.

    “You’re saying I’m opening up to violence by asking whether or not women are the folks who can have pregnancies?” Hawley asked.

    Bridges said that a number of transgender people commit suicide, which she pinned on people “denying trans people exist and pretending not to know they exist.

    “Do you believe that men can get pregnant?” she asked Hawley.

    “No,” he said.

    “So you’re denying that trans people exist. Thank you,” she responded.

    Senator Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) looks on during a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on voting rights on Capitol Hill in Washington on April 20, 2021. (Evelyn Kockstein/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

    “And that leads to violence? Is this how you run your classroom? Are students allowed to question you or are they also treated like this, they told that they’re opening up people to violence?” Hawley wondered.

    “They’re allowed to question me. We have a good time in my class. You should join,” Bridges said.

    “I bet,” Hawley said.

    “You might learn a lot,” Bridges said.

    “I would learn a lot. I’ve learned a lot through this exchange. Extraordinary,” he said.

    Following the hearing, Hawley took to Twitter.

    “The Democrats say what they really think: men can get pregnant and if you disagree, you are ‘transphobic’ and responsible for violence,” Hawley wrote on the social media website.

    “For today’s left, disagreement with them = violence. So you must not disagree.”

    Others said Bridges made sense, including Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.).

    “It’s the excellence, knowledge & the truthtelling by Prof. Khiara Bridges for me,” Pressley wrote, sharing a clip of the interaction. “Her testimony is a masterclass. This is a must watch.”

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/12/2022 – 21:45

  • NASA's Webb Telescope Reveals Deepest Look Into Cosmos
    NASA’s Webb Telescope Reveals Deepest Look Into Cosmos

    The first images from NASA’s $10 billion James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) were revealed Tuesday at the Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. The photos were the deepest views of the cosmos, a sight no one on Earth had ever seen before. 

    “These images, including the deepest view of our universe that has ever been taken, show us how Webb will help to uncover the answers to questions we don’t even yet know to ask; questions that will help us better understand our universe and humanity’s place within it,” NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said in a press release. 

    “The Webb team’s incredible success is a reflection of what NASA does best. We take dreams and turn them into reality for the benefit of humanity. I can’t wait to see the discoveries that we uncover – the team is just getting started!” Nelson continued. 

    The four images revealed on Tuesday were (list provided by JWST’s website): 

    Carina Nebula: Webb’s look at the ‘Cosmic Cliffs’ in the Carina Nebula unveils the earliest, rapid phases of star formation that were previously hidden. Looking at this star-forming region in the southern constellation Carina, as well as others like it, Webb can see newly forming stars and study the gas and dust that made them.

    Southern Ring Nebula: This planetary nebula, an expanding cloud of gas that surrounds a dying star, is approximately 2,000 light years away. Here, Webb’s powerful infrared eyes bring a second dying star into full view for the first time. From birth to death as a planetary nebula, Webb can explore the expelling shells of dust and gas of aging stars that may one day become a new star or planet.

    Stephan’s Quintet: Webb’s view of this compact group of galaxies, located in the constellation Pegasus, pierced through the shroud of dust surrounding the center of one galaxy, to reveal the velocity and composition of the gas near its supermassive black hole. Now, scientists can get a rare look, in unprecedented detail, at how interacting galaxies are triggering star formation in each other and how the gas in these galaxies is being disturbed.

    SMACS 0723: Webb has delivered the deepest and sharpest infrared image of the distant universe so far – and in only 12.5 hours. This new image, a color composite of multiple exposures each about two hours long, is approximately the size of a grain of sand held at arm’s length. This deep field uses a lensing galaxy cluster to find some of the most distant galaxies ever detected. This image only scratches the surface of Webb’s capabilities in studying deep fields and tracing galaxies back to the beginning of cosmic time.

    JWST also examined an exoplanet named “WASP-96b,” indicating water vapor was present in the plant’s atmosphere. 

    On Monday evening, President Biden tweeted the first JWST image. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    NASA also provided an update on one of the telescope’s mirrors, which was recently hit by a micrometeoroid

    And so the hunt for life begins, costing only $10 billion. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/12/2022 – 21:25

  • California Truckers Plan LA/Long Beach Work Stoppage Wednesday To Protest AB5
    California Truckers Plan LA/Long Beach Work Stoppage Wednesday To Protest AB5

    By Clarissa Hawes of FreightWaves

    Some California truckers who move containers in and out of the marine terminals at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach say they plan to participate in a work stoppage Wednesday to protest a controversial state law, AB5, that seeks to limit the use of independent contractors and largely classify them as employee drivers.

    On June 28, the U.S. Supreme Court refused to hear the California Trucking Association’s challenge to AB5, returning the case to the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. 

    One owner-operator who plans to participate in the port protest says he doesn’t want to become an employee driver, preferring to remain an independent contractor.

    “During the pandemic, we were too busy being essential to realize we were about to be screwed by AB5,” the California trucker, who didn’t want to be named for fear of retaliation, told FreightWaves.

    Gordon Reimer, manager of Southern California-based FHE Express, says many of the 75 owner-operators his company uses to move freight to and from the ports in Southern California plan to participate in Wednesday’s protest.

    He has notified the trucking company’s customers to expect potential freight delays because of the protest, although it’s unclear how many independent owner-operators plan to participate. 

    “This will be an inconvenience to us and our customers, but I understand the frustration among independent owner-operators who feel this is the only way to bring attention to their plight as being a former owner-operator myself,” Reimer told FreightWaves. “How can I blame these drivers who now find out that their dream is being snatched away from them all because they’re based here in the state of California?”

    Phillip Sanfield, director of media relations for the Port of Los Angeles, told FreightWaves late Tuesday that port representatives have heard some social media reports about the planned protest, but “have no other info.” He said the port is monitoring the situation.

    As of publication time, representatives of the Port of Long Beach had not responded to FreightWaves’ request for comment.

    Ongoing legal challenges prevented AB5 from going into effect in January 2020. The law stems from the California Supreme Court’s decision against Dynamex Operations West Inc., a package and document delivery company. The court found that Dynamex had misclassified its delivery drivers as independent contractors rather than employees and that all California-based companies that use independent contractors must follow the “ABC test,” a three-pronged test to determine whether a worker is an employee.

    The B prong defines an independent contractor as a worker who is engaged in “work that is outside the usual course of the hiring entity’s business.” That is problematic for motor carriers utilizing independent owner-operators to move freight.

    It’s unclear how many independent contractors or owner-operators plan to participate in the work stoppage on Wednesday.

    “Owner-operators are the most difficult segment of the trucking industry to try and organize — it’s like herding cats — because everyone has their own personal gripes in the industry,” Reimer said. “However, everyone seems to be pretty unified about how AB5 could effectively put 70,000-plus independent owner-operators out of business.”

    Oakland truckers plan Monday protest 

    To the north, multiple trucking companies hauling containers in and out of the Port of Oakland have been notified by owner-operators that they are planning a work stoppage on Monday. 

    Bill Aboudi, president of AB Trucking, says he switched to an employee business model a few years ago, but with the fallout from AB5 looming, many trucking companies that serve the port are choosing to close, sell or move their operations out of California. 

    “Some of the older owner-operators, who just love to drive and want to remain independent, don’t want to jump through all of these extra government hoops to set up their own corporations and pay themselves a set salary and everything else to comply with AB5, so they are leaving the industry,” Aboudi told FreightWaves.

    Some of the younger independents are choosing to do something else, either find a job in another industry or leave California entirely to truck elsewhere, Aboudi said. 

    “I had one guy tell me he was going back to his old job as a cook and is leaving port trucking,” Aboudi said. “We think inflation is high right now; just wait until the cost of operating a trucking business skyrockets if we don’t get AB5 off the books.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/12/2022 – 21:05

  • Google To Slow Hiring "For The Rest Of Year" As "Sunnier Days" Come To An End
    Google To Slow Hiring “For The Rest Of Year” As “Sunnier Days” Come To An End

    Back at the end of May, we reported that contrary to the artificially rosy picture created by the BLS’s seasonally-adjusted Establishment Survey (which we now know is substantially weaker than the Household Survey which has flatlined since March), company after company was warning that it will either freeze hiring amid a historic profit margin crunch – or had announced outright layoff plans, which Piper Sandler compiled in one startling table.

    Since then the list has grown extensively, and late on Tuesday we finally hit the motherlode: none other than the third largest company in the world, Google parent Alphabet, revealed its plans to slow hiring for the remainder of the year in the face of a potential economic recession, CEO Sundar Pichai told staffers on Tuesday in a company-wide email.

    Pichai said the company will focus on hiring “engineering, technical and other critical roles,” in 2022 and 2023, according to a copy of the email viewed by Bloomberg News (the email is below)..

    “Moving forward, we need to be more entrepreneurial, working with greater urgency, sharper focus, and more hunger than we’ve shown on sunnier days,” Pichai wrote. “In some cases, that means consolidating where investments overlap and streamlining processes.”

    Why is today’s announcement notable? Because as Bloomberg notes, historically Google has been largely immune to the business cycle and the economic dips of the tech sector. While the internet giant paused hiring after the financial crisis more than a decade ago, it has since regularly added waves of new employees for its main advertising business as well as areas such as smartphones, self-driving cars and wearable devices that aren’t yet profitable. Google parent Alphabet, which employed almost 164,000 people as of March 31, has hired primarily in recent years for Google’s cloud division and new fields like hardware.

    Ominously, Google’s move mirrors that of other, far smaller and much more challenged tech companies: in May, Snap and Lyft said they would slow hiring. Several weeks later, Instacart also said it would dial back job growth and Tesla followed with an announcement of a 10% reduction for its salaried workforce (see table above). Then earlier this week, Microsoft announced it was cutting a small number of jobs. Facebook, or Meta Platforms as it is now known until it reverts back to its original name, also reduced its hiring plans because of concerns over economic conditions.

    In the email, Pichai said Google added 10,000 staffers during the second quarter and had “strong commitments” in the next few months to hire college recruits. 

    Here is the full email from Bloomberg

    Hi Googlers,

    Hard to believe we’re already through the first half of 2022. It’s the right opportunity to thank everyone for the great work so far this year, and to share how my Leads and I are thinking about H2.

    The uncertain global economic outlook has been top of mind. Like all companies, we’re not immune to economic headwinds. Something I cherish about our culture is that we’ve never viewed these types of challenges as obstacles. Instead, we’ve seen them as opportunities to deepen our focus and invest for the long term.

    In these moments, I turn to our mission: to organize the world’s information and make it universally accessible and useful. It’s what inspired me to join the company 18 years ago, and what makes me so optimistic about the impact we are able to have on the world. Knowledge and computing are how we drive our mission forward. That’s the lens we use to decide where to invest — whether it’s in areas like Search, Cloud, YouTube, Platforms and Hardware, the teams that support them, or in the AI that enables more helpful products and services.

    We help people and society when we focus on what we do best, and do it really well. The investments we’ve made in the first half of the year reflect this vision. In Q2 alone, we added approximately 10,000 Googlers, and have a strong number of commitments for Q3 start dates which reflects, in part, the seasonal college recruiting calendar. These are extraordinary numbers, and they show our excitement about long-term opportunities, even in uncertain times.

    Because of the hiring progress achieved so far this year, we’ll be slowing the pace of hiring for the rest of the year, while still supporting our most important opportunities. For the balance of 2022 and 2023, we’ll focus our hiring on engineering, technical and other critical roles, and make sure the great talent we do hire is aligned with our long-term priorities.

    Moving forward, we need to be more entrepreneurial, working with greater urgency, sharper focus, and more hunger than we’ve shown on sunnier days. In some cases, that means consolidating where investments overlap and streamlining processes. In other cases, that means pausing development and re-deploying resources to higher priority areas. Making the company more efficient is up to all of us — we’ll be creating more ways for you all to engage and share ideas to help, so stay tuned.

    Scarcity breeds clarity — this is something we have been saying since the earliest days of Google. It’s what drives focus and creativity that ultimately leads to better products that help people all over the world. That’s the opportunity in front of us today, and I’m excited for us to rise to the moment again.

    –Sundar

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/12/2022 – 20:44

  • Starbucks Closing 16 Stores In Major Cities Due To 'Increasing Threats' From Bathroom Drug Dens
    Starbucks Closing 16 Stores In Major Cities Due To ‘Increasing Threats’ From Bathroom Drug Dens

    Four weeks ago, Starbucks CEO Howard Schutz told the NY Times that the company was assessing increasing threats to public safety over it’s “all inclusive” 2018 bathroom policy that encouraged homeless people and drug addicts to make copious use.

    Now, the company is now shuttering 16 locations in major cities over incidents related to drug use and ‘other disruptions’ in its cafes, according to the Wall Street Journal.

    The company on Monday announced that it would be permanently closing six stores each in Seattle and Los Angeles, as well as two in Portland, OR, and single locations in Philadelphia and Washington DC by the end of the month.

    The move comes after workers reported incidents involving drug use by customers and members of the public – which, logically, comes after the company’s 2018 virtue signaling campaign which eventually included the installation of needle deposit boxes at various locations after employees signed a petition demanding the company do more to protect them.

    We read every incident report you file—it’s a lot,” wrote operations leads Debbie Stroud and Denise Nelson in a message to U.S. employees Monday. “We cannot serve as partners if we don’t first feel safe at work.” (Starbucks refers to its employees as ‘partners’)

    Starbucks also said that it would give store managers leeway to close restrooms, limit seating or reduce operations in response to safety concerns. The moves are part of policies aimed at addressing workers’ concerns, including about their safety on the job, the company said.

    Managers can continue to change store layouts if needed, including limiting seating to customers, the spokeswoman said. The company said it would provide additional guidance to baristas in how to deal with active shooter scenarios and conflict de-escalation at work. -WSJ

    Last month, Schultz told the NYTimes that increasing threats to public safety and an expanding mental health crisis have made it challenging for employees to manage stores under open bathroom policies. He said the decision was an “issue of just safety.” 

    “We have to harden our stores and provide safety for our people,” the CEO of America’s largest coffee chain said. “I don’t know if we can keep our bathrooms open.”

    Remember when Howard Schultz thought he was fit to be president of the United States?

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/12/2022 – 20:44

  • Container Rates Slump As "Bullwhip Effect" Enters Terminal Phase
    Container Rates Slump As “Bullwhip Effect” Enters Terminal Phase

    The infamous “bullwhip” effect strikes as inventory gluts force U.S. importers to dial back shipments from overseas, driving down rates for ocean freight, which could end up causing a so-called “freight recession.” 

    WSJ reports U.S. companies are renegotiating shipping agreements they made during the virus pandemic highs. Some are hedging in the spot market to reduce costs associated with long-term contracts. 

    San Francisco-based freight forwarder Flexport said softening demand lowers freight rates but remains well above pre-pandemic levels. 

    Last week, the spot rate to ship a container from China to the U.S. West Coast was still four times higher than the same period in July 2019, online freight marketplace Freightos’ data shows. 

    A recent shipment by Carbochem Inc., an importer of activated carbon used in water treatment, cost around $16k from China to Chicago, down from $21k a year ago.  

    “We need to be looking at probably less than $10,000 to get anywhere close to the levels we were before and be competitive,” the firm’s president, Gavin Kahn, said. 

    Shipping data from Bloomberg shows international freight rates have slumped over the last six months, mainly because of China shutdowns. However, U.S. importers reducing demand for cargo ships has accelerated the downward move. 

    The $1.5bln slide in U.S. consumer goods in May might have been a clear indication that demand for overseas products was waning and comes as Americans reduced spending on durable goods, something Target and Walmart pointed out last month.

    We have detailed for readers in the last two months the terminal phase of the bullwhip effect was upon us:

    The side effect of soaring inventory to sales ratios is that retailers must liquidate inventories as consumer spending habits change. This causes retailers to reduce demand from overseas suppliers (read: Samsung Asks Component Makers To Delay Shipments Amid Build-Up In Inventories), which diminishes the need for ocean freight shipping. 

    In late March, FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller warned that retailers would need to unload inventory amid signs of demand destruction. He correctly said this would cause a freight recession now could be coming true as container rates decline. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/12/2022 – 20:25

  • Victor Davis Hanson: Left-Wing Elites Are Our New Antoinettes
    Victor Davis Hanson: Left-Wing Elites Are Our New Antoinettes

    Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via AmGreatness,

    These humanitarian rich feel just terrible about the sins of America, but not terrible enough to sacrifice any element of their privileged lifestyles… the just deserts they feel for being so righteous.

    Marie Antoinette, the beheaded wife of the beheaded French Bourbon King Charles Louis XVI, did not really say “Let them cake.” 

    But in the short time that the French Revolution became utterly unhinged, toxic, and nihilistic, she became nonetheless iconic as an out-of-touch elite who had lived in a make-believe world at Versailles, without a clue (or care?) about the ordeal of the masses. 

    Rather than worry about the drudgery of the French peasant, Marie dressed up as one. And she roamed about in her idyllic faux peasant “farm” at the Hameau de la Reine, near the palace at Versailles. 

    Apparently, during these brief rustic interludes, Marie felt that the more she might act out a sort of aristocratic peasant life, the more she could find simplicity and escape the drama of court life, but without the real-life, crushing poverty of the poor. 

    The modern left-wing elite are becoming our version of Antoinettes. Thirty-eight-year-old Mark Zuckerberg is worth over $60 billion. But he enjoys T-shirts, jeans, and apparent simplicity in his many landed estates. He is so worried about the wrong voting tendencies of the clueless middle classes that he poured nearly $420 million of dark money from his vast fortune into the 2020 election—de facto absorbing the work of key precinct registrars—to ensure the “right” result for the unthinking multitudes. 

    Americans, almost uniquely among modern nations, mostly do not envy, much less despise the rich. But there is a certain sort of privilege that they do not like: the sanctimonious and hypercritical rich whose rhetoric is at odds with their own lifestyles and the methods by which they inherited or made vast sums. And they especially are turned off by those who exude open disdain for the clinger/deplorable/dregs class—to paraphrase the Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Joe Biden nomenclature. 

    An especially grating habit of the left-wing wealthy is to lecture the middle class on their supposed illiberality. Often, those struggling are told they need to pay more for what White House economic advisor Brian Deese recently called the “liberal world order.” 

    Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, or George Soros, to take a few examples, are multibillionaires who live lives unlike any in the history of civilization. They also fund various agendas through multibillion-dollar foundations and their own personal riches. 

    Their causes are all deemed critical to the nation and planet, but unfortunately not fully appreciated as so vital by the peasant classes—whether they be global governance, massive restructuring of the economy to stop carbon releases, radical abortion on demand, or the sponsoring of critical legal theory prosecutors who feel crime is but a rich man’s construct. 

    Indeed, when various pollsters recently asked the public what their chief worries were, they found the culprits were the prohibitive price of gasoline, the ruinous effects of hyperinflation, supply chain shortages, the nonexistent southern border, or the escalating violent crime wave—all of which concerns are of apparent little interest to left-wing billionaires. 

    In other words, the worries of the Antoinette liberal elite—climate change, abortion on demand, transgenderism, strict gun-control—are not those that terrify the middle and lower classes. The latter, for some reason, first want to survive one more day with enough affordable food and energy and to be safe from criminals. 

    Why Democrats are currently unpopular transcends even Joe Biden’s daily, dangerous, and tragic loss of cognition. Their low ratings arise more from the implementation of an array of disastrous policies dreamed up at left-wing university departments and think tanks. 

    As a result, voters have concluded that the Left “just doesn’t care.” 

    By that, they conclude that the drivers of modern hard progressivism—the billionaire donor class, the highly compensated professional bicoastal elites, the ideologues who have captured and transformed the old Democratic Party—ignore criticism of their policies. Or they claim that their disasters are unappreciated benefits, or mere PR problems, or shift blame to the Russians, the Emmanuel-Goldstein Trump, the toadish media, or the victims of their disastrous policies. 

    The border is overrun by illegal aliens. Lethal drugs, cartels, gangs, and child traffickers enter at will without consequences. American towns and cities are being swamped by hundreds of thousands of unlawful border crossers. In response to public outcries, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas either ignores the anguished or falsely claims that the border is “secure.” Translated that means Americans either are racists or should get over the fossilized idea of a border itself.  

    Gasoline is at all-time highs. Joe Biden tells the public “Putin did it”—although prices soared well before the Ukraine War. Translated, that means the spiral to nearly $5 a gallon in California by February 2022—before Putin invaded Ukraine—was “cheap” compared to the current $6.70 a gallon. 

    Alex Wong/Getty Images

    When Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm was asked whether she might take measures to ease the fuel burden on American commuters, she laughed and thought it “hilarious” that she either could or would consider such action. U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) scoffed that clueless gas-guzzling motorists should buy a Tesla (base price for a low-end Model 3: $46,990) like she drives and so skip the greedy service stations. 

    Biden will not reconsider pipelines, new federal leases, or his green demonization of fracking. But he will drain the strategic petroleum reserve on four apparent Orwellian principles:

    • Oil pumped into an underground vault and then pumped back out does not exude the stigma of pristine oil pumped first out of the ground.

    • Motorists would be encouraged by cheaper prices to drive more and thus consume more of the dirty fuel that Biden wishes to restrict.

    • The oil pumped out of the reserve to cushion Americans in times of national emergencies can be sent into the global market and thus end up in the hands of our de facto enemies, the communist Chinese.

    • Biden looks to the reserve, the Russians, the Saudis, the Venezuelans, and the Iranians to pump more of the awful fuel that America has in abundance, needs desperately—and should not dare extract.

    Commercial air travel is in near shambles. Shortages of everything from baby formula to tampons are making America seem akin to the old Soviet Union. For Biden’s cabinet, this disaster is called “transitioning” to a better green future.

    Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg presumably oversees our nearly ruined commercial air travel system, ports where cargo ships are backed up to the horizon, and gas and diesel prices that are impoverishing the middle classes. In response, when he is not on paternity leave, Buttigieg brags that he rides a bike, and lectures Americans on the racist origins of their once modern but now ossified freeway system.

    Why does the party of caring and good ole Joe Biden from Scranton seem so indifferent? Why is the Left so callous to the consequences of Biden’s self-created high inflationary, unaffordable gas-and-food presidency and what it has done to the middle class? 

    The answer is not just that the Democratic leadership or the progressive elite are smugly “rich.” Rather, the problem is that they are “Antoinette rich.” 

    That is, they have lost any empathy for those who endure firsthand the consequences of the elites’ ideological rigidity. So, this is not the Democratic Party of Harry Truman or even of Bill Clinton. 

    Hunter Biden, without any apparent income, is renting a $20,000 a month Malibu mansion, necessitating that the Secret Service rent a nearby $30,000 a month mansion to watch over this 50-something trainwreck of an adult. The elite know that Hunter’s prior income came from quid pro quo shakedowns of foreign governments, that he failed to pay taxes in a manner that would earn any other American a jail sentence, and that he is exempt from investigation. 

    Americans are not supposed to even mention the truth: the president’s son was enriched, deeply leveraged by the Chinese, and so, too, by association was the president himself. And such “collusion” may explain the Biden Administration’s inexplicable tolerance for Chinese aggression. 

    Multimillionaire Governor Gavin Newsom lectured Californians on why they must wear masks and avoid social gatherings even as he declined to do so while enjoying a birthday party at the pricey French Laundry restaurant in Napa. He was captured on camera, maskless again, and in the company of the celebrity Magic Johnson while the state mask mandate remained in place. 

    Now Newsom preens that California won’t pay for its state employees to travel to supposedly backward, homophobic Montana for business trips. But Newsom has no problem dragging his costly state security detail to his in-laws’ tony Montana ranch. 

    From time to time, Michelle and Barack Obama pontificate to Americans about their racist, sexist, and homophobic pathologies—but always from their Washington, D.C. Kalorama digs or their Martha’s Vineyard chateau, or now from their new, third mansion on Oahu. 

    How strange that the more millions of dollars the Obamas earn, the more castles they acquire, so all the louder they hector the struggling middle classes. Most apparently illiberal Americans can hardly afford to fill their 250-gallon propane tank; the Obama’s Martha’s Vineyard estate tanks require 2,500-gallons of dreadful carbon polluting fuel. 

    Speaker Nancy Pelosi castigates the illiberality of the deplorable classes. During the lockdowns that she championed, however, she got caught maskless violating quarantines—to get her hair done. 

    Pelosi also released a clueless Antoinette video of herself boasting about her just delivered $13 a pint ice-cream, stocked up in her twin $23,000 sub-zero refrigerators in her Napa estate. Her multimillionaire husband, Paul, recently wrecked his new Porsche (a carbon guzzler) while driving under the influence. 

    Americans are reaching the point where they either cannot afford vacations at all or are terrified of flying only to be left stranded in the now inert airport archipelago. No matter. The woke Pelosis this week are guests of superstar Andrea Bocelli at his Tuscan beach estate. 

    No one begrudges the elite Left their riches or their frolics. But they do resent the talk-down and accusatory sermons that come with them and the hypocrisy that fuels them. 

    This list of Democratic “men and women of the people” who are detached from the people could be endlessly expanded but the size of it explains why they seem tone deaf to the struggles of others they never wish to see or hear. Their exalted status reflects the new globalized wealth of the United States that is found most often in high-tech, media, entertainment, professional sports, finance, investment, law, universities, and insurance—and is mostly left-wing. 

    The new zillions are quite unlike the old, fossilized money in timber, mining, agriculture, oil, construction, and manufacturing that was grounded in grubbier realities and without the high-altitude sermonizing. Whether one calculates elite blue money by ZIP code, congressional district, or counties, the result is the same: the Democratic Party is run by billionaires and is the sanctimonious party of highly compensated bicoastal professionals. 

    Both have agendas that transcend the middle class and reflect the reality that they care little for those who cannot match their wealth and tastes. The “crazies” and “clingers” lack the elite’s supposed empathy, superior talent, and wisdom. More bothersome, our left-wing elite has the means to ensure that it is never subject to the disasters that naturally follow from its own ideological bankruptcy. 

    In other words, the left-wing has a problem. These humanitarian rich feel just terrible about the sins of America, but not terrible enough to sacrifice any element of their privileged lifestyles—the just deserts they feel for being so righteous. To square that circle, of indulgence for their rich selves, and sacrifice for poorer others, they hector and preach—and thereby find medieval penance and indulgence that excuses their own spectacular levels of illiberal consumption. 

    To the bread-poor masses, the irredeemables, the chumps, and the “right-wing Latinas” they don’t quite say: “Let them eat cake.”

    Instead, as they jet about on private planes, free of their own bothersome quarantines, edicts, and masks, while acquiring additional, carbon-gulping, seashore estates, they let their guard down with cries of, “Let them drive Teslas,” “Wear a mask!” and “Transition to a greener future!”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/12/2022 – 20:05

  • "Whereabouts Unknown": 3 Arrows Capital Founders Go MIA Amidst Crypto Firm's Bankruptcy
    “Whereabouts Unknown”: 3 Arrows Capital Founders Go MIA Amidst Crypto Firm’s Bankruptcy

    The founders of 3 Arrows Capital have apparently made a good ole-fashioned run-for-it…

    The bankrupt crypto hedge fund founders have not been cooperating in the liquidation process of the firm, according to a Bloomberg report this week. And to do one better, their whereabouts have simply been “unknown” since last Friday. 

    Those founders, Kyle Davies and Zhu Su, have not contacted representatives setup to help liquidate the firm by a BVI judge last week, the report says. However, lawyers for the two men have reportedly said they intend on cooperating. 

    A photo posted by Bloomberg this week shows the company’s headquarters seemingly abandoned….

    A court hearing is set for Tuesday this week, as liquidators seek to stop the “dissipation” of the firm’s assets. 

    Lawyers for the liquidators said: “Here, that risk is heightened because a substantial portion of the Debtor’s assets are comprised of cash and digital assets, such as cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens, that are readily transferable.”

    3AC has been just one of the major firms – joining names like Celsius and Voyager – that has collapsed as a result of the plunge in bitcoin. Insolvency proceedings in the BVI have started, as has a Chapter 15 bankruptcy filing in the US. 

    Liquidators went to Three Arrows’ office address in Singapore, which “appeared dormant”. Bloomberg reported:

    “…the door was locked, computers were inactive and mail was stuffed under the door. People working in the surrounding offices said they hadn’t seen anyone enter or exit the office recently.”

    Lawyers for the two men were on a Zoom call with the liquidators last week, but it was unclear if Zhu and Kyle were even on the call:

    “While persons identifying themselves as “Su Zhu” and “Kyle” were present on the Zoom call, their video was turned off and they were on mute at all times with neither of them speaking despite questions being posed to them directly.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/12/2022 – 19:45

  • Video Hidden By US Navy For 6 Months Shows 34 Hours Of Spewing Jet Fuel In Hawaii
    Video Hidden By US Navy For 6 Months Shows 34 Hours Of Spewing Jet Fuel In Hawaii

    Authored by Ann Wright via Common Dreams,

    A dramatic video hidden for 6 months by the US Navy of the 34 hours showing 20,000 gallons of jet fuel spraying into a Red Hill tunnel and disappearing into a floor drain that sent thousands of gallons into the water supply of 93,000 residents surfaced on July 5 after an undisclosed Navy employee made public a video that the Navy continued to maintain did not exist.

    What little goodwill for the Navy that was left in the civilian and military community of Honolulu has disappeared as the Navy continues to lie about the Red Hill jet fuel contamination of the community’s drinking water. With the video taken by the employee whose cart ran into a pipe that broke allowing the jet fuel to spray, available to the public, the Navy is investigating the media leak of the video which it told did not exist for seven months to the State of Hawaii, its Congressional delegation and the public. Watch:

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    Earthjustice attorney David Henkin said that it’s “pretty offensive that they would go after someone that is providing information that the public has a right to see… That they are not apologetic for not releasing this information to the public and instead are trying to stomp it out is really offensive.”

    The video surfaced only days after the Navy attempted a midnight June 30, 2022, out-of-sight release of a stunning January 2022 investigative report of the March and November 2022 massive leaks of jet fuel. The Honolulu Board of Water Supply and community groups including Sierra Club-Hawaii, Earthjustice, and Oahu Water Protectors had strongly called in town hall meetings and in writing for the release of the investigation throughout the delay of six months between the writing of the report and its release.

    On transparency and trust of the Navy, Ernie Lau, the chief engineer of Honolulu’s Board of Water Supply, says, “This whole issue of transparency has always been a challenge. They (the Navy) can provide the rhetoric to say that they will be transparent and build trust. But it’s really the actions that are not consistent with that rhetoric that demonstrates that they’re not being actually transparent, and that there may be more information that’s available that could be very valuable in looking at what was the scope and magnitude of the problem, and what we need to do to recover the aquifer from contamination.”

    The January 2022 report finally released on June 30, 2022 stated in remarkable candor for an internal Navy investigation that “laid bare the human errors and systemic negligence that allowed two catastrophic leaks to occur within months of each other.”

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    Rear Admiral Christopher Cavanaugh’s investigative report revealed “there was a culture of disregarding procedures, poor training and supervision, ineffective command, a lack of ownership over operational safety, a lack of timely, accurate and thorough reporting, and a flawed investigation into the May spill.”

    In the November 2021 leak, the Navy initially said that 14,000 gallons of fuel and water were released, but in fact, the Cavanaugh report says the pipeline was holding 16,999 gallons of jet fuel, which was released on “full blast.”

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    The investigative findings mirror the community’s decade-long concerns that Red Hill is fundamentally unsafe, a contention that the Navy denied for years—until the June 30 release of the January investigation. “They were right,” Adm. Sam Paparo, commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, told Civil Beat after a press conference to discuss the findings. “The Navy was wrong to say that it was safe. That is clearly evident in the outcome.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/12/2022 – 19:25

  • Ex-Gov Bill Richardson Is Headed To Russia To Negotiate Griner & Whelan's Release
    Ex-Gov Bill Richardson Is Headed To Russia To Negotiate Griner & Whelan’s Release

    Secret negotiations between the United States and Russia over the detention of both WNBA star Brittney Griner and Marine veteran Paul Whelan now appear in full swing, as former New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson is expected to travel to Russia in the coming weeks to seek their release.

    Richardson has had a long track record representing families of US hostages and detainees abroad through his nonprofit Richardson Center, and in coordination with the US government. “(National Security Council) leadership are in touch with Bill Richardson. We appreciate his commitment to getting Americans home and are pursuing the release of Brittney and Paul through government channels,” NSC spokesperson Adrienne Watson confirmed at the start of this week.

    Mickey Bergman, executive director at the Richardson Center for Global Engagement, first revealed to ABC, “What I can say (and is publicly known) is both the Whelan and Griner families have asked us to help with the release of their loved ones.”

    About two months into Griner’s detention, which began just before the Feb.24 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the US State Department changed her status to “wrongfully detained” – which allows the US government to open hostage negotiations.

    A statement from Richardson, who recently played a key role in securing Trevor Reed’s release from Russian prison in April, included the following:

    Richardson told CNN on Thursday following Griner’s plea, “We believe that any prisoner in a situation like this needs to do what they believe can help them survive the ordeal.”

    “She is fighting for her life,” Richardson said, adding he “is working hard on trying to secure the safe return” of Griner and Whelan from Russia, but declined to give further details due to “ongoing efforts.”

    Whelan, a former Marine, was arrested in December 2018 on espionage charges he vehemently denies. He was sentenced in June 2020 to 16 years in prison in a trial US officials denounced as unfair.

    Richardson was also the ambassador to the United Nations in the Clinton administration, and has already long had extensive dealings with Russian officials and a large degree of success.

    Griner’s case has received a lot of media attention, even as Paul Whelan’s family has struggled to get the Biden administration involved in his predicament as he serves out a lengthy prison sentence for what Whelan said was a “sham trial”.

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    As for Griner, her criminal trial began at the start of this month. She’s accused of drug smuggling, after less than a gram of cannabis oil was found in her baggage while arriving to a Moscow airport in February. The White House has accused Moscow of seeking to use her as a political pawn connected to the war in Ukraine. Richardson is expected to travel to Russia within the next two weeks, according to a source cited in ABC News.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/12/2022 – 19:05

  • 'The Most Important Chart In Macro': Cyclical Components Of GDP
    ‘The Most Important Chart In Macro’: Cyclical Components Of GDP

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    To understand where the economy is headed, watch the cyclical components of GDP.

    Cyclical components of GDP, image from Tweet below

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Video Explanation of Cyclicals Importance

    Cyclicals including housing and durable goods only constitute ten to fifteen percent of GDP, but the swings account for variations between growth and recession according to Eric Basmajian at EPB Macro.

    Housing Bust Underway

    Basmajian’s theme ties in with the housing bust now underway.

    For discussion please see Expect Huge Negative Revisions to New Home Sales as Sales Crash and Orders Cancelled

    Also note Existing Home Sales Skid Another 3.4 Percent in May, Down Fourth Mont

    *  *  *

    Please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/12/2022 – 18:45

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 12th July 2022

  • Europe On High Alert: July Shutdown Of Nord Stream Pipeline Has The EU Worried
    Europe On High Alert: July Shutdown Of Nord Stream Pipeline Has The EU Worried

    It’s a dynamic which some in the alternative media have been warning about for months – While the establishment claimed that Russia would be crushed under the weight of NATO sanctions, others have suggested that Russia could hurt the west more (specifically Europe) by implementing sanctions of their own.  While mainstream governments and journalists argued about how fast NATO should implement restrictions on Russian oil and gas, none of them seemed to consider the possibility that Putin would cut off energy exports himself.  

    This is the problem with instituting foreign policy and engaging in geopolitics using a “cancel culture” mentality; it leads to childish thinking and a lack of foresight.  You can’t “cancel” a nation if you are dependent on them for 40% of your energy needs.  

    Anyone with moderate industry knowledge in oil and gas could have seen this coming.  Europe is now on “high alert” as the Nordtream 1 pipeline to Germany has lost 60% of its natural gas transfers as Russia pressures Canada for the return of a massive turbine being held in Canada for repairs.  Canada has lifted sanctions in response and allowed the shipment of the turbine back to Russia, showing that the Kremlin does indeed have economic leverage over NATO countries. 

    Even more concerning is that the pipeline will be undergoing an extended shutdown due to “maintenance” until July 21st.  Some officials in Europe believe this shutdown may be a precursor (a beta test) to a total block of Russian gas to the EU, and they are probably right.

    Speaking at the economic forum Les Rencontres Économiques, French Minister Bruno Le Maire said: ‘Let’s get ready for a total shutdown of the Russian gas supply…This is the most likely event.’  He added ‘We should not take Vladimir Putin’s threats lightly.’

    It’s important to remember that Europe is not only dependent on oil and gas imports for heating, it is also dependent on them for electricity and many other needs.  The middle of summer does not seem like the worst time to face heating shortages, but the overall effect of energy loss would drag the EU economy down into panic.  Will the gas supply return after July 21?  Probably, but this shutdown indicates that the Kremlin may be sending a message that they could end Europe’s economic stability anytime they want.  

    The closer we get to winter, the more pressure will be applied, no doubt.

    The US is far less dependent on Russian energy resources, but there is the greater problem of a “shrinking energy pie” to consider.  With Europe cut off, they will be scrambling (as they already are) to find replacement imports from alternative sources.  This means less oil and gas on the overall global market and even more price inflation for everyone, including Americans.  

    The Ukrainian government has chimed in on the scenario, arguing that Putin is “bluffing.”  However, if we look at recent developments in terms of Russia’s trading partners, this sounds like political spin.  Both China and India have greatly increased their purchases of Russian oil over the past few months and Russia’s oil revenues have soared despite western sanctions. Russian natural gas exports to China jumped 60% in May.  This shift in trade is part of a 30 year energy deal signed with China in February before the Ukraine war even began, indicating well planned contingencies on the part of the Kremlin.  

    Russia’s economic backing from its trade partners was solidified at the recent BRICS summit, where nations like China and India showed full support and offered only passing interest in Ukraine.  With The BRICS representing well over 30% of the human population and China representing the largest importer exporter economy in the world today, Russia is not facing any shortage of export alternatives.  It is highly unlikely that they are bluffing when it comes to cutting off energy to Europe.

    If this does happen for any length of time during winter, prepare for a considerable reduction in living standards in the EU as energy inflation buries their economy and creates the potential for civil unrest.  In the US, prepare for even higher prices in terms of oil and gas as Europe gobbles up whatever energy exports they can find on the market to replace Russian losses.     

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/12/2022 – 02:45

  • Biden Heads To Middle East, Plans To Abase Himself Before Saudi Royals
    Biden Heads To Middle East, Plans To Abase Himself Before Saudi Royals

    Authored by Doug Bandow via AntiWar.com,

    President Joe Biden is off to the Middle East. He apparently plans to welcome Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman – ole “Slice ‘n Dice,” when it comes to journalistic critics – in from the cold. The president is abandoning the pretense that human rights motivate his administration.

    Of course, this should come as no surprise. Campaign promises rarely last much beyond election day. Candidates collect votes from hapless citizens, only to announce after winning that their commitments are impossible to keep. So it has been with treating Mideast royal dictatorships as the criminal regimes they are.

    President Donald Trump set the standard for shamelessly catering to Saudi whims. So ostentatious was his subservience that some suspected mercenary objectives, perhaps hoping to build a Trump Tower in Riyadh after leaving office or collect future investments for his son-in-law Jared Kushner. The more mundane explanation may be that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia brilliantly played to Trump’s vanities while the Israelis convinced him that Riyadh was a necessary ally against Iran. Whatever the reason, there was no Saudi crime the Trump administration would not aid, abet, and cover-up.

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    Candidate Biden responded by sharply criticizing Trump and promising to make the crown prince, known as MbS, a “pariah.” President Biden began well, by refusing to meet or even call the killer prince. The governments could still cooperate, and Americans could still buy oil even if Washington stopped pretending that the KSA was a vital pillar of US Mideast policy.

    However, Biden quickly fell back into the conventional wisdom of which he has been a poster boy since entering politics. One factor is Iran. Although Biden committed to restoring the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or nuclear deal, with Tehran, he blundered away his chance to improve relations, proving hopelessly timid and fearful of Republican criticism.

    Vicious GOP attacks were inevitable if he did anything less than launch a nuclear attack on the Islamic Republic, and even that probably would have been dismissed as insufficient by congressional Republicans. He should have accepted the inevitable and immediately entered into negotiations with Iran. Instead, he dithered and accepted the poison pill sanctions imposed by Trump to prevent his successor from making a deal.

    Now seemingly stuck with Trump’s disastrous “maximum pressure” campaign – instead of causing Tehran to accept Washington’s dictates, the policy spurred the Islamic Republic to speed up its nuclear program – Biden is similarly increasing sanctions and threatening military action. Which means effectively turning Iran policy over to Israel and Saudi Arabia. Instead of attempting to extricate Washington from a sectarian feud between Shiites and Sunnis, Biden appears to be going all in for the Saudis, no matter how loathsome and irresponsible the royal regime.

    Biden’s second objective is to win over Israel first fans who voted Republican during Trump’s reign. The Abrahamic Accords brought no peace, since Israel was not at war with the likes of the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco. Indeed, the US had to buy Arab assent – for instance, accepting Morocco’s illicit annexation of the Western Sahara. Rather, the public normalization of relations created the basis of a Sunni Arab-Israeli alliance against Tehran. Israel would like to add the Saudis, which in practice means the administration wants the same, even though the American people get little out of the bargain. At least President Barack Obama made a pretense of caring about promiscuous Israeli violations of Palestinians’ human rights.

    Finally, Biden is desperate to get more oil flowing. He fears a Democratic wipeout in November with inflation raging and his approval rating plummeting. The US has spent years using sanctions to drive producers off the market, recently Iran and Venezuela and since February Russia. Playing the craven beggar, he hopes to convince the crown prince to open the spigots.

    Officially, the president said he doesn’t plan to ask for the Kingdom to sell more oil, but he doesn’t have to. That message has been communicated for weeks. He also said he wasn’t going for the purpose of seeing Crown Prince Slice ‘n Dice, though they would be in meetings together. However, no one doubts that the president and MbS will do more than greet one another. The only question is whether the crown prince will insist that Biden kiss the royal feet first.

    It’s not clear that the Kingdom can deliver a lot more oil – apparently MbS told French President Emmanuel Macron that the Kingdom was already at maximum production. Moreover, the KSA has no reason to give up the opportunity to fill its coffers with petroleum prices running at record levels. It is easier to take money from American and European consumers than to again turn the Riyadh Ritz-Carlton into an informal prison and shake down the Saudi mercantile class. (Not that anyone can be certain Prince Slice ‘n Dice won’t use that tactic again!)

    In any case, the only reason MbS would agree to even a little moderation in oil policy is if Biden offered something more valuable in return. And that appears to be some sort of security guarantee, officially or unofficially turning American military personnel into royal bodyguards. This is an awful idea. If the Saudi people can’t be trusted to defend their nation’s brutal, rapacious ruling class – the Kingdom is ranked by Freedom House among the world’s dozen least free nations, with China, Iran, and Russia ranking above Riyadh – young Americans certainly shouldn’t be dispatched.

    MbS has loosened totalitarian social controls, leading to a burst of popularity among the young. Imagine, Saudis now can attend movie theaters! However, he has tightened political controls. There is no sign that he is willing to stop kidnapping, jailing, imprisoning, murdering, and even dismembering his critics. Moreover, despite his studied appeal to credulous evangelicals, he maintains the ban on any faith but Islam. Although no one could confuse the United Arab Emirates with a liberal society, the Kingdom is in a class almost by itself.

    Riyadh and its well-renumerated Greek Chorus in Washington promote the KSA as a vital ally. However, the reality is quite different. The energy market has diversified. Biden is desperate to expand Saudi oil production because the US is now waging economic war against multiple oil producers. Instead of empowering the Saudis, Biden should abandon the Trump administration’s failed strategies of starving already suffering Venezuelans and wrecking Iran’s economy. The US also should be offering Ukraine at least as much encouragement to make peace as war.

    The Kingdom’s factotums also present the Saudi royals as a heroic barrier to aggressive Iranian Islamic revolutionaries. Yet the KSA has been even more disruptive and interventionist than Tehran. Riyadh financed the brutal al-Sisi coup and dictatorship in Egypt, sent troops to preserve the oppressive minority Sunni monarchy in Bahrain, blockaded and threatened to invade neighboring Qatar, underwrote Islamist fighters in Libya and Syria, kidnapped Lebanon’s prime minister, and invaded Yemen, the poorest country in the region. Quite a record!

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    The latter misadventure has proved to be an extraordinary humanitarian disaster. The situation even worsened after Biden was elected. Reported the Yemen Data Project: “January 2022 was the most violent month in the Saudi-led air war in Yemen in more than five years. Yemen Data Project recorded 139 civilian deaths and 287 civilians injured in Saudi coalition airstrikes in January, taking the casualty toll to over 19,000 civilians killed and injured since Saudi Arabia launched its bombing campaign in Yemen in March 2015. Not since October 2016 have more civilian casualties been recorded in a single month in the air war. Saudi-led coalition airstrikes caused more civilian harm in the first month of 2022 than in the two previous years combined.”

    The KSA and its propagandists blame Iran, but Yemen’s Ansar Allah, or Houthis, always kept their distance from Tehran. The latter got heavily involved only after the Saudis and Emiratis, armed and supported by Washington, provided Tehran with an Allah-sent opportunity to bleed them. The royals turned another round of internal strife which has bedeviled Yemen for a half century into an international sectarian war, with catastrophic results. More than seven years later a ceasefire has finally halted fighting. However, no one knows if MbS has learned from his folly and is prepared to make a realistic peace.

    Perhaps the worst aspect of Biden’s trip is the US president going as impecunious petitioner, acting as if the KSA was the superpower and America was the supplicant. This long has been Saudi Arabia’s perspective of Washington. Defense Secretary Robert Gates recognized that the Saudi royals were ever ready to “fight the Iranians to the last American.” Biden seems likely to grant the Kingdom’s wish. Once he does his ostentatious kowtow to MbS, Saudi Arabia is unlikely to be the last dubious “ally” to take this administration’s measure and treat the president with disdain. No wonder polls show that less than a quarter of Americans approve of his trip.

    Instead of abasing himself, the president should transform the bilateral relationship into something approaching normalcy. First, he should encourage the ongoing dialogue between Riyadh and Tehran. The Kingdom decided to engage its potential antagonist after sensing Washington’s waning interest in treating the royals as permanent defense dependents. Better for Iran and the KSA to defuse their hostility than for Americans to make the Mideast safe for despotic Medieval monarchies.

    As for a security guarantee, Saudi Arabia should turn to Israel. The Mideast is perpetually unstable and shouldn’t consume so much attention and many resources from Washington. Israel is a regional superpower. Instead of expecting forever US subsidies, Jerusalem should underwrite the security of neighbors it believes to be important for its security.

    Moreover, if Riyadh (and Abu Dhabi) want to make nice to China and Russia, so be it. Beijing’s economic strength ensures that it will play an important commercial role, but it is unlikely to offer much militarily. Moscow’s role will be naturally limited by its modest reach beyond the “near abroad” and the disastrous fallout from its aggression against Ukraine. With far more important issues to worry about, starting with fiscal solvency at home, the US need not dominate every region on earth forever.

    If the Saudis complain, the Biden administration should publicly reconsider the federal government’s previous resistance to lawsuits against the Kingdom for alleged complicity in the 9/11 attacks. Moreover, the president could note that the Saudis and Emiratis might be appropriately declared state sponsors of terrorism, given their manifold war crimes in Yemen. And the administration could create a commission to investigate Riyadh’s influence-peddling in Washington, which exceeds anything undertaken by, say, China. Why continue to exempt the Saudis from rules applied to other nations?

    Every president seems to fall for the myth that the Kingdom is a vital partner for America. It is the Saudi royals who need the US. Washington policy should reflect this geopolitical reality.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/12/2022 – 02:00

  • "We Are Not Tacos": Hispanic Association Slams Jill Biden For Comparing Latinos To 'Breakfast Tacos'
    “We Are Not Tacos”: Hispanic Association Slams Jill Biden For Comparing Latinos To ‘Breakfast Tacos’

    Hispanics are livid after First Lady Jill Biden compared them to “breakfast tacos” during a Monday speech to the 2022 UnidosUS Annual Conference held in Texas, where she opined on Hispanics’ “Quest for Equity.”

    During her speech, Biden said that “the diversity of this community, as distinct as the bodegas of the Bronx, as beautiful as the blossoms of Miami and as unique as the breakfast tacos here in San Antonio, is your strength.”

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    This did not sit well with Latinos, who spent the day dragging her on Twitter. It also caught the attention of the National Association of Hispanic Journalists (NAHJ), which said in a statement: “We are not tacos.”

    “Using breakfast tacos to try to demonstrate the uniqueness of Latinos in San Antonio demonstrates a lack of cultural knowledge and sensitivity to the diversity of Latinos in the region,” reads the statement.

    “Our heritage as Latinos is shaped by a variety of diasporas, cultures and food traditions, and should not be reduced to a stereotype.”

    Memes and hot takes abound:

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    In short:

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/12/2022 – 01:46

  • America's Path To War With Russia
    America’s Path To War With Russia

    Authored by Christopher Blattman via RealClear Politics (emphasis ours),

    The Biden administration has worked hard to keep Russia from treating America as a co-combatant in Ukraine. But that doesn’t mean NATO isn’t deeply embroiled in the fight. The level of support is extraordinary and increasing, including sanctions, intelligence sharing, weapons transfers, and money. Add to that the ever-heightening political rhetoric: “The United States is in this to win it,” one US Congressman tweeted from Kyiv.

    pic via africametro.com

    But nothing in international law stops Russia from changing its mind and treating the United States as an active party to the conflict. Instead of providing bright red lines, the conventions are fuzzy and subjective. The fact that Vladimir Putin hasn’t deemed NATO a co-combatant comes from a mix of murky international norms, strategic calculation, and luck.

    At some point, that could change. Perhaps a Ukrainian military unit uses a long-range system from NATO to attack Belgorod, just inside the Russian border, and Putin orders his military to retaliate against a Western country. Or, as the torrent of heavy weapons to Ukraine grows, perhaps Russia decides that supply depots in Poland are fair game. We can imagine these scenarios by the dozen.

    In all likelihood, however, none of these will come to pass. Fighting is ruinous, and so, as a general rule, countries do their best to avoid open conflict—especially one that could go nuclear. The costs of war also mean that (when they do fight) nations have powerful incentives not to escalate and expand those wars—to keep the fighting contained. This is one of the most powerful insights from both history and game theory, and the subject of my recent book, Why We Fight: The Roots of War and the Paths to Peace. War is a last resort, and the costlier that war, the harder both sides will work to avoid it.

    For the most part, that logic holds here. The United States and Russia have an exceedingly low risk of conflict. But that risk is not zero. In their vociferous support for Ukraine, it’s important for American politicians and their publics to be clear-eyed about the perils involved. It’s not just that NATO could get unlucky, and see the fighting escalate for idiosyncratic or irrational reasons. Game theory and history show us how NATO or Russian aggression could come about for rational, calculated reasons.

    Before we get there, however, let’s go back to why a Russia-NATO war is unlikely. The conflict in Ukraine makes this a strange moment to argue that war is rare, or a nation’s last resort.

    A powerful example came two weeks into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when India accidentally launched a cruise missile at Pakistan. Predictably, calm ensued—as it has for decades. War between the two hostile, nuclear-armed rivals would have been so unimaginably costly, both sides strove to avoid it.

    For years, Putin also avoided invading Ukraine. Instead, for two decades he tried every other underhanded means possible to co-opt the country: dark money, propaganda, political stooges, assassinations, and support for separatists. He tried everything else he could because as violent and costly as these things were, not one of them was as risky or as ruinous as war.

    Likewise, Putin successfully pacified Russia’s other neighbors with varying degrees of persuasion and force, from the subjugation of Belarus to “peacekeeping missions” in Kazakhstan (to say nothing of the cowing of the Russian people). None of these confrontations required long campaigns of violence.

    Finally, once the war did break out, both sides took steps to avoid escalation. Russia has the missiles to level every government building in Ukraine’s capital, but they haven’t done so yet. And while it’s hard to look at the recent attack on shoppers at a mall in Kyiv and see evidence of restraint, the fact is that Putin has the ability to do much worse. Similarly, Ukrainian forces could step up their attacks across the Russian border, but have kept these incursions to a minimum. Each one of these choices is likely to be a strategic one—a decision to concentrate the fight to the Donbas and reduce the costs and risks of escalation. A war between NATO and Russia would be more costly than all these conflicts put together.

    Three Ways War Could Happen

    Escalation is unlikely, but every day the war rages on means a small chance of world war. Some of this risk is idiosyncratic or even irrational. A NATO or Russian officer could misread the situation, or a computer system could produce an error, and one side mistakenly launches an attack on the other. Even if they’re unlikely, such events are easy for most people to imagine.

    Less evident are the strategic reasons that one side could decide war—whatever its price—is worth the gamble. There are at least three ways this could come about.

    • First, there is the logic of reputation and deterrence. NATO has incentives to be confrontational with Russia—to take excessive risks in supporting Ukraine—to deter future adversaries. That’s because every one of NATO’s other rivals is watching and drawing lessons. If the West treats Russia gently, just because it is a nuclear-armed power, that sends a clear message to every other strongman in the world: atomic weapons are the ticket to impunity; get them as soon as possible.

    To avoid this signal, America and its allies would have to be willing to show that they are willing to stand up to a nuclear armed state and endure some chance of escalation. This would mean taking more risks than in a world where NATO only has to think about Russia. Sadly, no rivalry exists in isolation.

    • Second, Ukraine or NATO could unwittingly give Russia an incentive for a preventive strike. Suppose Ukrainians concentrate their forces and heavy arms, tempting Putin to use a tactical nuke while he can. Or perhaps the West pledges to deliver even heavier arms onto Ukraine, but those systems will not be operational for months. This could give Russia an incentive for an aggressive push to encircle Ukrainian forces, cut off Western supplies, and attack NATO supply depots while they can.

    In both circumstances, Russia has a window of opportunity in which it believes it is temporarily strong. Quick action can lock their advantage in—an incentive to escalate the war, even if it risks drawing NATO into the fight.

    Now, in theory, Russia could use their momentary advantage to demand concessions rather than escalate. As a rule, adversaries prefer to bargain rather than fight. But doing so could undermine the secrecy and effectiveness of a preventative strike. And besides, how could Ukraine and the West credibly commit to those concessions? Once Russia is weaker, its adversaries may have incentives to renege. This is what international relations scholars call the “security dilemma”, and what game theorists call a “commitment problem”—arguably one of the most common but underappreciated causes of war in history.

    • Third, the last rational road to war involves canny leaders with incentives to rile up public opinion against certain kinds of compromise, only to find that they’ve overshot the mark, and eliminated any possibility of a peaceful deal.

    Suppose, six months from now, the war of attrition has ground on, leaving Russia in control of large swathes of the Donbas, where Ukraine has little chance of regaining them by force. Imagine that, privately, the Ukrainian government believes that some kind of settlement is necessary. Optimistically, they reason, Russia might withdraw from the Donbas in return for the region’s autonomy, Ukrainian neutrality, and formal annexation of Crimea.

    Unfortunately, it is easy to imagine a world where Western and Ukrainian public opinion is against such a deal, even if it is the pragmatic path. As a result, Ukraine’s parliament could not be trusted to implement any peace deal. NATO membership—enshrined in the Ukrainian constitution—would be even harder to change. Amidst this opposition, Western leaders would feel pressure to publicly distance themselves from a peace agreement they’d secretly like to see. This could pit Russia and Ukraine in a forever war—a permanent festering wound—one that could escalate into a NATO-Russia war for all the idiosyncratic and rational reasons above.

    Why would leaders in Ukraine and the West ever find themselves in such a predicament, where the sensible path is anathema in public? Many reasons, but one is because public opinion is a weapon and a bargaining tool. Clever politicians know that they can foster public anger to build broad support for recruitment, taxes, and other costly sacrifices needed to wage the war. This strengthens the government’s hand against an enemy. What’s more, riling up public opinion can shut down a whole range of deals that are unfavorable to your side. “I know it makes sense to concede what you ask,” you can tell the rival leader, “but look at public opinion—my hands are tied.” In short, leaders on both sides of a war have incentives to demonize the enemy and manufacture discontent.

    Unfortunately, a few wrong choices and politicians may find they’ve shut off any possibility of a deal—especially if the other side has been playing the same risky strategic game. Suddenly, by month 12 of the war, both rivals are exhausted, depleted, and yet unable to find peace.

    Time to Assess Reasonable Settlement Options

    For Western leaders, these three logics mean there will be hard choices ahead.

    On deterrence, it means working to strengthen Ukraine’s position in ways that minimize the risk of escalation. The Biden administration’s caution against no-fly zones, or long-range weapons that can reach into Russia, seems well warranted.

    When it comes to security dilemmas and other commitment problems, it means no moves that give Russia reason to believe its advantage is enormous and temporary. Public declarations of massive military support months down the road could be worse than no declaration at all. Swifter, steady support is wiser.

    Finally, leaders should be wary of whipping up hostility to any deal. “In it to win it,” plays well on Twitter and cable news, but ignores that few wars ever end in decisive victory. Almost all require painful concessions. Resoluteness in public is reasonable, but it is also time to assess what kinds of settlements Ukraine’s leaders foresee, and not undermine them in advance.


    Christopher Blattman is a Professor of Global Conflict Studies at The University of Chicago, and the author of Why We Fight: The Roots of War and the Paths of Peace (Viking, 2022). He tweets at @cblatts.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/11/2022 – 23:40

  • China Credit Growth Explodes To 4th Highest Ever In June… It's Still Not Enough
    China Credit Growth Explodes To 4th Highest Ever In June… It’s Still Not Enough

    After several months of surprisingly, almost painfully low credit creation in China – the country that for the past decade was the sole global growth dynamo – in June Beijing has finally redeemed itself.

    In June, China’s total social financing, RMB loans and M2 all came in far above expectations, with the rapid credit growth in June likely reflecting a combination of strong fiscal policy support (record-high single-month government bond issuance), further easing in credit supply (PBOC urged banks to accelerate loan extensions) and recovery of credit demand on easing Covid restrictions and activity growth recovery.

    June total social financing (TSF) beat expectations again after showing a strong rebound in May, and rose by 5.17 trillion CNY, the fourth highest monthly increase on record. The sequential growth of TSF stock accelerated to 15.4% mom annualized in June, from 12.8% in May. Overall CNY loans growth also accelerated and grew 13.7% M/M annualized from 13.0% in May. M2 year-on-year growth increased to 11.4% yoy in June, vs. 11.1% in May, and expanded by 14.8% in month-over-month annualized terms, vs. 15.6% in May. Here are the numbers:

    • New CNY loans: RMB 2810bn in June vs. consensus: RMB 2400bn. Outstanding CNY loan growth: 11.2% yoy in June (13.7% SA ann mom, estimated by GS); May: 11% yoy (13% SA ann mom).
    • Total social financing: RMB 5170bn in June, vs. consensus: RMB 4200bn.
    • TSF stock growth was 10.8% yoy in June, faster than the 10.5% in May. The implied month-on-month growth of TSF stock accelerated to 15.4% (seasonally adjusted annual rate) from 12.8% in May.
    • M2: 11.4% yoy in June vs. Bloomberg consensus: 11% yoy. May: 11.1% yoy (+15.6% SA ann mom estimated by GS).

    And visually:

    Among major TSF components, shadow banking credit showed a small net increase in June (entrusted loans and undiscounted bankers’ acceptance bills grew by RMB 99bn in June, vs. the RMB 20bn increase in May, seasonally adjusted). Based on loans to different sectors, the rebound in loan growth was broad-based. Corporate mid-to-long term loan growth was 24.8% vs. 12.4% mom annualized in May. Corporate bill financing showed a small contraction of 0.7% vs May, perhaps due to policymakers’ guidance and concerns over arbitrage via bill financing. On loans to households, total household loans expanded by 10.2% month-over-month annualized, vs. an increase of 3.9% in May. Household medium-to-long term loans, which are mostly mortgages, grew 7.7% month-over-month annualized in June, vs. 2.6% in May. Government bond net issuance surged to RMB 1.6 trillion (NSA basis), the highest single-month net issuance on record, as policymakers required local governments to finish special bond issuance by the end of 1H. Corporate bond net issuance was RMB 327bn in June (after seasonal adjustment).

    M2 growth also surprised to the upside at 11.4% Y/Y, the highest since late 2016. Fiscal deposits declined by RMB 437bn in June, broadly similar to the change in June 2021 despite record-high government bond net issuance, implying very strong fiscal spending in June.

    According to Goldman, detailed breakdown of June credit data pointed to improvement of credit demand – corporate medium-to-long term loan growth accelerated in June while bill financing slowed. Household loan growth also improved although short-term household loans (consumer credit) grew faster than medium-to-long term household loans (mostly mortgages). That said, the bank believes that similar to previous outlier credit creation months, broad credit growth could slow in the near term after the rapid growth in June, barring additional major policy easing measures such as additional local government special bond issuance, or more credit support from policy banks.

    That’s the not so good news, because as Bloomberg’s Simon White writes, “China’s nascent recovery will remain muted, restraining further equity upside, until there is a clear sign measures of liquidity are sustainably turning up.”

    Taking a step back, White notes that China’s total social financing (TSF) increased in June as the effects from the country’s incrementally rising credit and fiscal easing feed through. In May, the PBoC urged banks to lend more, while last week the Ministry of Finance announced it was considering allowing local governments to issue a chunky $220 billion of special government bonds in the second half, an unprecedented rise.

    In any case, the 12-month sum of the TSF is now rising almost 10% on a year-on-year basis, after spending most of the past 15 months in contraction territory.

    Echoing Goldman, the Bloomberg Markets Live strategist notes that while this would normally be a pretty unassailable sign of a strong boost to growth ahead, in China that is not necessarily the case: “Given banks are effectively arms of the state, government-directed financing means that new credit finds its way most easily to SOEs, who are often not the companies most in need. This means the growth multiplier from new credit is lower than if it was extended more broadly to the private enterprises that need it most.”
     
    As White notes, the kind of stimulus in China that has a more pronounced impact on growth is so-called “flood-like stimulus.” This is broad-based, unfettered easing with limited control from the authorities where the credit created ends up. It was the flood-like stimulus in the mid-2010s that led to rampant expansion in the shadow banking sector that eventually prompted China to pull back on easing for the sake of financial stability and greater state control. As a result, “there has been little appetite for flood-like stimulus since then, with officials stating as lately as June that such easing is not on the cards.”
     
    That said, the constraints on state-mandated lending mean that TSF growth has a poor relationship with economic growth. A much better relationship is seen with real M1 growth. This rose strongly in previous episodes when stimulus was flood-like, but the modest upturn this year looks already to be sputtering.

    As White concludes, “this means economic growth in China is likely to continue to incrementally improve, but remain muted and at risk of stalling” especially since Covid remains an ongoing headache for the stock market, as today’s news showed. In short, after an impressive 20% bounce off the lows, the market has hit resistance. But much bad news is already priced in. Yet, it is difficult to see how we get the next leg up in the stock market while real M1 growth remains subdued…

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/11/2022 – 23:20

  • China And Pakistan Engage In Naval War Games As Eastern Military Cooperation Rises
    China And Pakistan Engage In Naval War Games As Eastern Military Cooperation Rises

    War games highlighting cooperation between China and its allies are not a new thing, but such events are increasing in frequency and the nature of these exercises indicates that current global tensions are more than just a passing phase.  

    Chinese naval training with Russia has dramatically expanded in the past year, with exercises around Japan and Taiwan as well as exercises in the Indian Ocean which included Iran.  The war games suggest a model for countering US military power in the region, as well as possible training for locking down the South China Sea after a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.  Concerns are growing within nations like Japan and India that the string of naval exercises this year are a form of saber rattling leading to further geopolitical strife. 

    Russian military representatives suggested last month that the country is preparing for a ‘colossal war with NATO.’  In the meantime, China’s rhetoric against Taiwan has escalated, with the Chinese Defense Minister threatening “all out war” if they ever try to assert official independence.  Whether or not the US would actually intervene in defense of Taiwan is still in question under the Biden Administration. 

    Pakistan’s military alliance with China is increasing at a time when the nation’s economy is on the verge of implosion.  The official inflation rate has hit 13.37% and the Pakistani Finance Minister, Miftah Ismail, has stated publicly that the country is facing economic collapse if they do not receive a long awaited IMF loan agreement to the tune of $36 billion ($30 billion more than they initially asked for).  It is possible that a closer military alliance is a trade Pakistan is willing to make in order to access greater economic support from the Chinese. 

    In the meantime India, another economic ally of China with precarious border relations, is left wondering what Pakistan’s military relationship with China means for them.  The naval drills this week followed the visit of Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff General to China where he held talks with China’s top ranking General.  The statements by Pakistan claim a ‘rock solid’ alliance between the two militaries.

    Pulling Pakistan in close may be China’s attempt to force India into deeper ties, beyond the economic and into the realm of defense.  India and China have become highly interdependent in financial terms, but India’s military connections to the west remain.  A strong alliance between Pakistan and China could be used as leverage to force India to choose support for China in military engagements, or at least remain neutral during a major conflict (like an invasion of Taiwan).  

    China would likely suggest that strong economic and defense ties will secure peace in the region under their leadership, and prevent nuclear conflagration between India and Pakistan.  What it would really accomplish is a free hand for China to project military power in the Pacific, specifically against Taiwan.  With China, Russia, India and Pakistan all in alignment, or at least unwilling to help NATO interests, it would be very difficult for the west to use geopolitical deterrence as a means to stop a regional war.  Clearly, sanctions are not working against Russia for this very reason, so why would they work against China?  

    War games alone are never a sure sign of impending conflict, but the wash of war games across multiple eastern nations, the areas in which they are operating, and the economic conditions involved all indicate that at the very least we will be facing a powder keg environment in the Pacific for many years to come.  What this means is that China will be able to operate with more impunity and with less fear of a US or NATO response.  And, with the current leadership available in the US, there is very little to scare China away from pursuing their greatest obsession – The surrender of Taiwan into the communist fold.  

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/11/2022 – 23:00

  • DOJ Probes PGA Tour Over Its Tactics Against Saudi-Backed LIV Golf
    DOJ Probes PGA Tour Over Its Tactics Against Saudi-Backed LIV Golf

    Just days ahead of President Biden’s controversial visit to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia comes news that the Department of Justice has launched an antitrust investigation of the PGA Tour over its maneuvering against Saudi-backed LIV Golf. 

    Players have already received initial DOJ inquiries about the PGA Tour’s actions over the past few months. One anonymous player’s agent told ESPN the DOJ investigators are “a little bit like a dog with a bone. They’re on this. I expect them to dig as deep as they can because they’re all over this. I could tell.”

    According to ESPN

    The inquiry, according to player agents who have been contacted by DOJ officials, is focused on the PGA Tour’s actions regarding the Official World Golf Ranking, warnings it has issued to players who were contemplating joining LIV Golf and suspensions that have been levied against players who left by PGA Tour commissioner Jay Monahan.

    The PGA Tour has dished out more than 20 indefinite suspensions to players who’ve competed in LIV Golf events. The investigation will also reportedly scrutinize whether the PGA Tour is colluding with the DP World Tour and others to deny world ranking points to LIV participants. 

    Last week an arbiter issued a stay of a suspension that had barred LIV Golf players from competing in the Scottish Open, which is co-sanctioned by the PGA Tour. 

    The LIV Golf Invitational Series is a high-spending newcomer funded by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund. One top of regular-season tournaments with prize purses totaling $25 million, LIV Golf has announced an eight-event series with a more than a quarter of a billion dollars in prize money at stake. The Saudis are reportedly paying golfer Phil Mickelson alone $200 million to switch from the PGA Tour to LIV Golf.   

    In June, PGA Tour commissioner Jay Monahan said, “If this is an arms race and if the only weapons here are dollar bills, the PGA Tour can’t compete. The PGA Tour, an American institution, can’t compete with a foreign monarchy that is spending billions of dollars in attempt to buy the game of golf.

    “We welcome good, healthy competition. The LIV Saudi golf league is not that,” he said. “It’s an irrational threat, one not concerned with the return on investment or true growth of the game.”

    “This was not unexpected,” the PGA Tour said in a statement. “We went through this in 1994 and we are confident in a similar outcome.” That’s a reference to a Federal Trade Commission probe prompted by the PGA Tour’s requirement that player’s obtain permission to play in non-PGA Tour matches. The PGA Tour emerged unscathed. 

    LIV Golf been condemned by many as a “sportswashing” venture—a public relations initiative designed to divert attention from Saudi Arabia’s atrocious human rights record, its catastrophic war in Yemen and links between Saudi officials and the 9/11 hijackers.   

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/11/2022 – 22:20

  • These Are All The World Leaders Assassinated Since 2000
    These Are All The World Leaders Assassinated Since 2000

    Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, 67, was assassinated on Friday (July 8) during a campaign speech in western Japan.

    In a country where gun control laws are stringent, the attack is the first the country has seen since before World War II. The suspected killer is reported to have said he held a grudge against an organization he believed the premier was connected to, yet police say investigations into the claims are ongoing.

    As Statista’s Anna Fleck details below, the stakes can be high for political leaders. Looking back over the past twenty years, a number of leaders have been assassinated either while in office or after having stepped down. In the following chart, we take a look at the presidents and prime ministers who have been killed since 2000, as listed by AP here.

    Infographic: The Leaders Assassinated Since 2000 | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Just last year, Haitian President Jovenel Moïse was reportedly tortured before he was killed by a group of hired assassins in an overnight raid.

    A few months earlier, Chad’s President Idriss Deby Itno had been killed while fighting rebels in the north of the country, just hours after having won a re-election.

    The chart then shows a ten year lull, where no presidents or prime ministers were killed. In that time, however, high profile leaders such as Tunisian left-wing opposition leader Chokri Belaid and Mohammed Brahmi lost their lives.

    Benazir Bhutto, the sole female on the list, and first female prime minister of Pakistan, was shot then hit by suicide bomber’s blast at a political rally in the city of Rawalpindi.

    In 2011, Libyan dictator Moammar Gaddafi was captured and killed after his government was overthrown by a NATO-backed rebellion.

    Congo’s President Kabila and Guinea-Bissau’s João Bernardo Vieira were each shot by inside men, the first by a child soldier who had become his teenaged bodyguard, and the second by a soldier in his presidential palace.

    Meanwhile, Nepal’s King was murdered by his own son, who massacred nine members of the family – including the king – in the royal palace, reportedly over an argument about the prince’s marriage.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/11/2022 – 21:40

  • The Parade Of Horribles: A Democratic Talking Point On Dobbs Is Dangerous Disinformation
    The Parade Of Horribles: A Democratic Talking Point On Dobbs Is Dangerous Disinformation

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    Below is today’s column on common talking point among Democratic members and pundits on how the recent Dobbs decision will present a barrier to women seeking treatment for ectopic pregnancies.

    It is not only legally and medically false but it is dangerous if women actually believe what they are hearing or reading from these figures. There are ample grounds for pro-choice advocates to oppose the decision without spreading alarm over a danger that does not exist.

    Here is the column:

    After the Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, a common rallying cry for pro-choice advocates has been the endangerment of women with ectopic pregnancies who would now be barred in some states banning or severely limiting abortion services. Reps. Judy ChuJan Schakowsky, and others have insisted that women with such pregnancies are now without protection. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez even used the issue to justify hounding and harassing justices eating in public in reference to a recent incident involving Justice Brett Kavanaugh at a restaurant with his wife: “Poor guy. He left before his soufflé because he decided half the country should risk death if they have an ectopic pregnancy within the wrong state lines.”  These views have been amplified by academics like Harvard Professor Laurence Tribe

    It is a great talking point but it just happens to be untrue as both a legal and medical matter. Worse yet, this common claim could be putting women physically at risk by suggesting that they might be legally at risk if they seek such treatment.

    There are obviously good-faith objections to the Dobbs decisions on the underlying constitutional interpretation. However, critics have created a parade of horribles that extend beyond that opinion, including arguments expressly rejected by the Court. That includes President Biden who has repeatedly suggested that contraceptives and travel for women could be now curtailed under the decision.

    The majority expressly and repeatedly rejected the application of this holding to these other rights. It stressed “intimate sexual relations, contraception, and marriage” are not impacted by its holding because “abortion is fundamentally different.” The court and Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s concurrence return to the point again and again: “Nothing in this opinion should be understood to cast doubt on precedents that do not concern abortion.” Only Justice Clarence Thomas suggested that these other cases should be examined. Yet even Thomas stressed this opinion expressly rejects that application.

    However, the ectopic pregnancy talking point is not just false, it is dangerous. These pregnancies can be life threatening and must be addressed as soon as possible. These interventions are not abortions and even restrictive states expressly state so.

    When a pregnancy implants in the fallopian tube, it is not a viable pregnancy but it creates a potentially fatal risk for the mother from tubal rupture and internal bleeding. Treating such woman is not an abortion of a viable pregnancy. Indeed, as noted in a recent column, the procedures are vastly different, including the fact that “mifepristone and misoprostol, used commonly to provide medical abortions, specifically do not treat a pregnancy outside of the uterus.”

    This is reflected in some of the most restrictive laws.

    For example, Oklahoma’s law expresses states “An act is not an abortion if the act is performed with the purpose to . . . remove an ectopic pregnancy.” Texas, Louisiana, and other states have the same express exemption.  However, even if the law were silent on ectopic pregnancies, it is doubtful that the courts would ignore the medical and factual classifications to treat such emergencies procedures as abortions or ignore that the mother’s life is in danger without medical intervention.

    Yet, women would not know that in listening to leaders or reading news accounts.

    In the New Yorker, Jia Tolentino explained “abortion bans will hurt, disable, and endanger many people … who encounter medical difficulties…One woman in Texas was told that she had to drive fifteen hours to New Mexico to have her ectopic pregnancy—which is nonviable, by definition, and always dangerous to the mother—removed.” That is based on a story from 2021 before the Dobbs decision and an account from an abortion hotline of a doctor refusing to deal with an ectopic pregnancy. It is not explained how, even when Roe v. Wade was still good law, such a procedure could be denied under Texas law.

    A woman reading such accounts might easily conclude that she could be charged with a crime or face other legal penalties if she sought treatment for an ectopic pregnancy in restrictive states. These politicians stress that time is of the essence and that such a loss of time in an ectopic pregnancy could prove lethal. Yet, their false claims could have precisely that effect.

    That makes this not just disinformation but the most lethal form of disinformation. Indeed, it is precisely the type of disinformation that many of these same leaders have called to be censored. Indeed, this year, Rep. Ocasio-Cortez continued her call for corporate censorship on social media because “disinformation through U.S.-founded companies like Facebook … have absolutely slowed and frankly sabotaged” efforts in areas like Covid treatment. Many have rallied to this anti-free speech cause. Indeed, this week, another medical professor was suspended for simply calling for a discussion of concerns over the need for Covid vaccines of children.

    I remain opposed to government and corporate censorship of disinformation, including the false statements made by Rep. Ocasio-Cortez. Like many of the false claims surrounding the Dobbs decision, these issues can be addressed without curtailing free speech, but that only increases the importance of countering these false narratives.

    President Biden and other Democratic members have called for censorship because social media companies are “killing people” with disinformation. That is precisely what could could occur if women believe the claims of politicians and pundits on these ectopic pregnancies.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/11/2022 – 21:20

  • Ackman Returning $4BN To Investors In Largest Ever SPAC After Failing To Find A Deal
    Ackman Returning $4BN To Investors In Largest Ever SPAC After Failing To Find A Deal

    It came like a lion, with days of non-stop investor fanfare constant TV coverage; it’s leaving like a shorn lamb.

    Two years after unleashing the largest ever blank check company in history, billionaire investor and CNBC drama queen, Bill Ackman, told investors that he is returning their $4 billion after failing to consummate a merger deal.

    Pershing Square Tontine Holdings’ efforts to find a target company were thwarted in part by what Ackman said was the unexpected recovery of capital markets during the coronavirus pandemic, according to a statement late on Monday.

    “We have been unable to consummate a transaction that both meets our investment criteria and is executable” Ackman said, noting that “while there were transactions that were potentially actionable for PSTH during the past year, none of them met our investment criteria” due to  an “adverse market for SPAC merger transactions.

    “The rapid recovery of the capital markets and our economy were good for America but unfortunate for PSTH, as it made the conventional IPO market a strong competitor and a preferred alternative for high-quality businesses seeking to go public,” Ackman said, referring to the blank-check firm by its trading symbol.

    In other words, Ackman used the Buffett excuse: “everything got too expensive for us to invest.” Which of course doesn’t explain why the billionaire didn’t look for opportunities now that stocks are more than 20% lower (and in many cases 50% or more). What explains it, is that with market sentiment dismal, it would have been difficult to find buyers into any new investment that was predicted on exponential growth as most SPAC do, at a time when the US economy is in a recession and flirting with depression.

    Ackman’s Tontine Holdings in July 2020 helped catapult special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, to record levels as the pandemic took hold, which we said at the time was the surest indicator of a market bubble similar to what happened in early 2008 just before the credit bubble burst. Since the start of that year, more than 1,200 SPACs have raised in excess of $271 billion in initial public offerings, almost three times the volume of all previous years combined, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

    As Bloomberg reminds us, a 2021 effort by Ackman to buy a 10% stake in Universal Music from Vivendi with a portion of the SPAC’s funds was shot down by regulators. Early discussion with companies including Airbnb and Stripe also failed to yield a deal.

    Ackman also said in Monday’s statement that he’s still “working diligently to launch” a new type of privately funded acquisition vehicle, Pershing Square SPARC Holdings Ltd., that will issue publicly traded warrants allowing holders to acquire stock in a newly merged company, to wit:

    “With the SPAC and IPO market effectively shut today, now is a highly opportunistic investment environment for a public acquisition vehicle which does not suffer from the negative reputation of SPACs. With this in mind, as we have previously explained, we are working diligently to launch Pershing Square SPARC Holdings, Ltd., a privately funded acquisition vehicle which intends to issue publicly traded, long-term warrants called SPARs, which will offer SPAR owners the opportunity to acquire common stock in the newly merged company, the outcome of a business combination between SPARC and a private company. The SPARC structure has many favorable attributes compared with conventional SPACs that should increase the probability a transaction can be executed on favorable terms.”

    “We intend to distribute SPARs to PSTH security holders who own either Class A Common Stock (ticker: PSTH) or warrants (ticker: PSTH.WS) as of the close of business on July 25, 2022 (the last date such instruments are redeemed or cancelled): ½ of a SPAR for each share of common stock and one SPAR for each warrant. The timing of the SPAR distribution will be determined by reference to the date SPARC’s registration statement becomes effective, which we would not expect to occur until Fall 2022.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/11/2022 – 21:00

  • Shinzo Abe's Ruling Party Gains Supermajority In Upper-House Election Following His Assassination
    Shinzo Abe’s Ruling Party Gains Supermajority In Upper-House Election Following His Assassination

    Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours)

    Japan’s ruling center-right party scored a supermajority in the House of Councillors election on July 10, claiming more than half of the 125 contested seats, in the wake of the assassination of former prime minister and party leader Shinzo Abe.

    Japan’s prime minister and president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Fumio Kishida, second left, speaks after placing a red paper rose on an LDP candidate’s name, to indicate a victory in the upper house election, at the party’s headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, on July 10, 2022. (Toru Hanai, Pool Photo via AP)

    Abe’s factious Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won 119 of the 248 seats in the upper chamber of parliament, while its coalition partner Komeito secured 27 seats, broadcaster NHK reported.

    This has secured for the party the two-thirds majority required to amendment Japan’s pacifist post-war Constitution. As part of Abe’s Japan-first policies, he was looking to revise Article 9, forbidding Japan from possessing its own military or forces with “war potential.”

    If unchallenged by other factions within the party, the victory will allow Kishida to preside until the next election in 2025. Kishida, a moderate from Hiroshima who wants nuclear weapons banned, represents the smaller, more left-leaning liberal wing of the LDP, while Abe lead the right-leaning nationalist wing.

    Kishida is more dovish on foreign policy than Abe, who was considered hawkish on China for his revitalising of the Quad forum and nationalizing of the uninhabited Senkaku islands that China contests as part of its territory—the Diaoyu islands.

    Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Rome, Italy, on April 24, 2019. (Tiziana Fabi/AFP via Getty Images)

    The LDP held a moment of silence for Abe at its Tokyo headquarters. Kishida carried a solemn expression as he placed victory ribbons next to the names of winning candidates on the whiteboard, The Japan Times reported.

    Violence threatened the electoral process, the very foundation of our democracy. I was determined to go through with this election at all costs,” he said, referring to the shooting of Abe that occurred two days before the poll.

    Speaking at a press conference, Kishida said that his administration will focus on addressing the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the soaring cost of living. He also pledged to revive the Japanese economy.

    I am determined to achieve results as part of my ‘new capitalism’ economic model, which is aimed primarily at revitalizing the economy,” he said.

    “At the same time, I will take a step-by-step approach to continue our work on diplomacy, security, and constitutional revision.”

    The party’s victory might allow Kishida to revise Japan’s pacifist constitution—a dream Abe never achieved.

    Asked about the plans for constitutional revision on Sunday, Kishida said that he would focus on putting together a bill to be discussed in parliament.

    Abe’s Murder

    Abe, Japan’s longest-serving leader, was fatally shot on July 8 during a campaign speech in the western city of Nara. Police arrested a 41-year-old man who allegedly shot Abe at close range, and said the suspect had used a homemade gun.

    Japan’s former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (C) falls on the ground in Nara, western Japan, on July 8, 2022. (Kyodo News via AP)

    The local police force manning the campaign event said on Saturday that security arrangements had been flawed.

    Local media reported that the suspect, Tetsuya Yamagami, told police that he intended to kill Abe because he believed that the ex-premier was connected to a religious organization that had bankrupted his family. Police have not identified the group.

    Abe’s death has drawn condolences from across political divides, and from around the world. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Tokyo on Sunday to offer condolences over Abe’s death and to meet with senior Japanese officials.

    “Thank you, Prime Minister Kishida, for the opportunity to visit and pay my respects to mourn with you and your nation a great statesman. We are deeply saddened over the killing of one of our dearest friends. The U.S.-Japan alliance will always remain strong,” Blinken said on Twitter.

    Mourners offer flowers for former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo, at the entrance of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) headquarters building in Tokyo, Japan, on July 10, 2022. (Toru Hana/Pool via AP)

    Many Japanese have been in mourning Abe’s assassination, with hundreds visiting the LDP headquarters over the weekend to remember the former prime minister. Abe’s wake will be held on Monday night and funeral for family and close friends on Tuesday.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/11/2022 – 20:40

  • Real-Time Card Data Reveals "Broad-Based Slowdown": Spending Growth Turns Negative For Low Income Households
    Real-Time Card Data Reveals “Broad-Based Slowdown”: Spending Growth Turns Negative For Low Income Households

    After last month’s disappointing retail sales, which confirmed what we already knew, namely that the US consumer was getting tapped out after maxing out credit cards in recent months, the latest total card spending per household, as measured by BAC aggregated credit and debit cards, returned modestly to the green, rising 0.3% month-over-month (mom) in June on a seasonally-adjusted basis, prompting BofA economist Aditya Bhave to forecast a 0.4% mom increase in the Census Bureau’s ex-auto retail sales figure in June, and expects the core control group (retail sales ex auto, gas, building materials and restaurants) to increase by a below-consensus 0.1% mom.

    While the headline retail sales number may appear solid, since inflation remained solid-er in June, the card data suggest there is a risk that real (inflation-adjusted) consumer spending declined for the second consecutive month.

    Which brings us to the next point: the latest BofA card spending data reveals a broad-based slowdown.

    As BofA notes, last month we were encouraged by the fact that services spending was picking up the slack as stay-at-home goods demand faded. Alas, the story for June is more concerning. Gas prices reached all-time highs in mid-June before easing off modestly through month-end. Gasoline spending rose another 4% in June and is up 20% over the last five months.

    This has started to take a toll on other categories of consumer spending, including services.

    In June, spending on travel and restaurants fell for the first time since January (when the Omicron wave peaked), while durable goods spending dropped for the fourth consecutive month. 

    Worse, for the week ending July 2, airline, lodging and restaurant spending by lower-income households were all basically flat on a year-over-year (yoy) basis…

    … and on a consolidated bases is now negative compared to 2021!

    What about the split between debit and credit card spending? BofA economists note that one common concern they hear is whether lower-income households with liquidity constraints are being forced to spend more on their credit cards because of inflation; while they claim they have not seen much evidence of this in the BAC card data, they admit that credit card spending has modestly outpaced debit card spending for lower-income cohorts over the last year..

    even though debit card spending has grown much more relative to pre-pandemic levels, which of course is to be expected courtesy of trillions in stimmies which parked in various checking accounts (and has been mostly bled dry by now).

    What is more concerning is that as exhibit 21 shows, credit card usage among low income cohorts is declining, not because of increased frugality but because as we showed last week, after an explosive move higher in Q1 in credit card balances..

    … most American households are now maxed out and the “easy” sources of purchasing power are gone, which means the Biden admin will be hard pressed to come up with another major crisis that allows it to dispense with a few more trillion in stimmies to preserve social order and peace.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/11/2022 – 20:20

  • Crypto Is Dead, Except For One Part…
    Crypto Is Dead, Except For One Part…

    Authored by Scott Hill via BombThrower.com,

    June was the worst month for Crypto markets ever. A huge drawdown in Bitcoin pricing, bankruptcies and scandal dominated the headlines. But there is one big bright spot, one thing within the industry that can tell us that this technology isn’t going away. To understand why this is an important marker for investors we need to go through the list of what got broken in the Crypto industry in June and why it broke.

    Luna and Three Arrows Capital

    Patient Zero for this entire collapse was the Terra/Luna ecosystem and its stablecoin UST. There are plenty of longer form descriptions of the collapse but the point is that when the stablecoin depegged and collapsed a large portion of the industry who had been relying on the peg ended up with a massive hole in their books.

    The largest example of this was Singapore based hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC) who was running a highly leveraged strategy using UST. This strategy had a significant part of the fund’s assets committed to it, but the UST collapse wasn’t enough to end the fund by itself.

    3AC also had large positions in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and staked Ethereum (stETH). The Grayscale position would have paid off if the Trust had been converted to an ETF this month, allowing the huge discount on GBTC to be arbitraged away to more closely reflect the pricing of the Bitcoin held in the Trust.

    GBTC was the last hope for the troubled fund, but 3AC collapsed before the SEC could even make a ruling on the ETF conversion. The stETH depeg was what really put the nail in 3AC’s coffin.

    stETH is a form of Ethereum that represents tokens deposited in the Proof of Stake beacon chain. This allowed stETH holders to gain a yield while still being able to use stETH in DeFi. For a long time it traded at the same price as regular Ethereum, but in mid May prices began to diverge with stETH trading at a discount.

    Unlike a stablecoin peg, there were no implicit guarantees from the company that issued stETH that the two assets would trade at parity. There was no one to defend the peg.

    Despite this, most Crypto companies and funds treated the two assets as interchangeable.

    In a similar way to the ETF conversion being the hope for salvation on the GBTC trade, the Ethereum merge into the Proof of Stake network was the way out for the underwater stETH trade. The merge is looking good, but it has been severely delayed from projections made in late 2021. It didn’t arrive fast enough to bail out 3AC.

    3AC was by far the most prominent and dominant fund in the industry. This wasn’t some small operation, nor were they unknown. Everyone in the industry loaned funds to 3AC.

    Default

    As it became clear that 3AC would not be able to close their bets on GBTC and stETH in profit, whispers of insolvency grew louder. Some counter parties even warned that 3AC had stopped communicating. The lenders that had given collateralized loans to 3AC began liquidating collateral. Those that had allowed 3AC to access credit based purely on reputation looked to the courts.

    The unwind was brutal. Liquidation of collateral led to more loans going bad which led to further liquidation of collateral. Once the dust settled Celsius, Voyager, Babel Finance and scores of smaller Crypto lenders were forced to limit or block user withdrawals. Crypto prices tanked. Liquidity dried up. Retail investors who had placed their trust in these lenders to safeguard their assets suffered.

    The pain is real and not to be taken lightly. Huge amounts of people lost investments in Crypto banks that they trusted.

    The real take away from the collapse of Crypto lenders is a lesson in knowing your counterparty. It was always clear that these lenders were lending user funds out to Crypto hedge funds and market makers. The risk of this was not well understood and it’s now highly questionable whether the yields on offer were high enough to compensate for the risk being taken.

    What was not so obvious was the concentration of risk. Now that we have seen Voyager’s books via their bankruptcy application we can see that 3AC was by far their largest counterparty, representing almost two thirds of their total loans outstanding. It’s beginning to look like none of the Crypto lenders were aware of how large each other’s 3AC exposure was, nor how much debt 3AC had accessed in total. There’s no way to soften this, concentrating that much risk on one counterparty was irresponsible and a complete failure of risk management.

    This fallout will scar the industry for years.

    Depositing your Crypto into a lending platform will never be seen as a low risk move again. Even the companies that weren’t affected as badly will have their operations scrutinized and questioned. Yields will need to justify the risk being taken. Especially as we come to see that Crypto deposits are no way near as safe as bank account deposits during a bankruptcy.

    Opportunity out of Crisis

    So once all the bankruptcies have been processed and the dust settles, what comes out the other side of this debacle?

    The large signpost is that DeFi survived.

    Through all of the turmoil major DeFi protocols functioned exactly as intended. Collateral was liquidated, yields adjusted, nothing broke, there was no impairment.

    This bull run has been a rough growth phase for DeFi with frequent hacks and dysfunction, but the core, large protocols have performed spectacularly well considering these systems hadn’t been properly stress tested before. A big part of this resiliency was that DeFi loans on major platforms are over-collateralized. Losses are not possible from bad loans.

    This era of contagion was a baptism of fire for DeFi and it passed with flying colors. We can take this knowledge with us to the next bull run. We now know that companies offering access to DeFi to customers who hand over their Crypto are risky. We can use this experience to inform our decisions moving forward. We also know that the undercollateralized DeFi lenders that will inevitably show up in the next cycle will be significantly more risky than overcollateralized lenders, meaning that much higher yields will need to be offered to compensate for that risk.

    What this means for DeFi tokens is still up in the air. Most tokens do not offer a share of revenue from the protocol and will struggle to activate dividends until US Crypto regulations allow it. Until then these tokens simply offer a vote in how the protocol is governed which may or may not be valued by the market.

    The thing we know for sure is that Crypto based financial systems work.

    This is the proof of concept that the entire industry has been looking for and should mean that these systems will continue to be built, expanded and used once market conditions recover. A major factor in the losses from the 3AC collapse was their ability to take loans from multiple counterparties without disclosing their total debt position. This is impossible in DeFi where all positions and trades are transparent and auditable, preserved on blockchains for anyone to verify. The next cycle seems likely to involve much more on-chain finance as firms look for better ways to provide assurances of solvency.

    In an increasingly low trust world, finance may move on-chain.

    One Big Survivor

    The main thing that survived this Crash is Bitcoin.

    Not Bitcoin the asset. That obviously got smoked. Bitcoin the network.

    Blocks kept getting mined. Transactions kept moving. The cold wallet under your bed kept your coins secure. The network survived this, just like it always does. Cementing the idea in another cohort of new Crypto traders that amongst all of the leverage and nonsense the core and solid innovation is Bitcoin. Everything else is built around it.

    The catastrophes even overshadowed a major announcement from Jack Dorsey’s Bitcoin skunkworks built within Block (formerly known as Square). The company would be building out the Bitcoin infrastructure necessary to launch DeFi protocols based on Bitcoin.

    The foundations of the next Crypto bull run are being laid in the crater of the previous run.

    We’ve also seen the collapse of prominent negative narratives. “Governments will ban it”. China tried. It didn’t go so well“It’s all frothy speculation”Third world countries continue their adoption in the face of out of control inflation and a threatening IMF.

    Using the Bitcoin network I can send value nearly instantly to anyone in the world, even if their country’s banking system has collapsed. That technology is powerful and will become increasingly useful as we see more governments collapse in what is shaping up to be a decade of turmoil.

    This is the third major collapse of Crypto asset markets, but the value of the underlying technology has never been more obvious.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/11/2022 – 20:00

  • White House Says Iran Supplying "Several Hundred" Armed Drones To Russia 
    White House Says Iran Supplying “Several Hundred” Armed Drones To Russia 

    In a truly unexpected and entirely bizarre development, the White House has announced that the US has intelligence showing that the Iranian government is preparing to transfer combat drones to Russia in order to help with the ongoing offensive against Ukraine.

    As revealed for the first time in a Monday afternoon White House press briefing previewing President Biden’s upcoming Middle East trip, the transfer doesn’t just involve a symbolic few drones in order for Tehran to merely defiantly thumb its nose at Washington, but allegedly will include “up to several hundred” unmanned aerial vehicles.

    IRGC’s “Sahed 129”. Source: state media/Wiki Commons

    White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters, “Our information indicates that the Iranian government is preparing to provide Russia with up to several hundred UAVs, including weapons-capable UAVs on an expedited timeline.” 

    This marks the first time that Iran has been accused of helping Russia amid its ongoing assault on Ukraine. The new charge is unusual and curious given Russia already maintains an advanced drone program, and in general its military is considered high-tech and is deemed rival to other major superpowers like the US and China, especially in the area of hypersonic weapons technology. Naturally, this leaves some pundits wondering why Russia would need a whole large fleet of drones from Iran of all countries.

    Sullivan told reporters that the drone transfer will even include training Russian troops on how to use them: “Our information further indicates that Iran is preparing to train Russian forces to use these UAVs with initial training sessions slated to begin as soon as early July,” he said.

    The US national security adviser did attempt to provide a possible motive or reason why Iran and Russia would make such an unusual deal, per Axios:

    Sullivan said it’s proof that Russia’s efforts to overtake Ukraine are “coming at a cost to the sustainment of its own weapons.”

    It’s just “one example of how Russia is looking to countries like Iran for capabilities that … have been used before we got the ceasefire in place in Yemen, to attack Saudi Arabia,” he noted.

    This appears to hinge on the assessment currently coming out of the West that Russia is losing more of its military hardware and munitions than it was prepared for during these opening four months of the war while seeking to sustain its non-stop bombardment of Ukrainian front lines in the East and South.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Sullivan is suggesting that Russia fears it will be depleted of the weapons and ammunition stockpile needed to achieve its goals in Ukraine. During the briefing, he added the caveat that “It’s unclear whether Iran has delivered any of these UAVs to Russia already.” It’s also uncertain at this point which UAV types or models the Iranians are allegedly sending.

    One possibility is the Sahed 129 or the newer Sahed 136 – the latter which is a ‘suicide drone’. Both were developed and are operated by Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and are considered relatively recent, advanced additions to the Iranian military’s arsenal.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/11/2022 – 19:40

  • Buchanan: Latest Symptoms Of A Disintegrating Nation
    Buchanan: Latest Symptoms Of A Disintegrating Nation

    Authored by Pat Buchanan,

    In Stephen Vincent Benet’s “The Devil and Daniel Webster,” the tale is told that if you approached Webster’s grave and called out his name, a voice would boom in reply, “Neighbor, how stands the Union?”

    “Then you better answer the Union stands as she stood, rock-bottomed and copper-sheathed, one and indivisible, or he’s liable to rear right out of the ground.”

    Today, it would be untruthful to answer to the soul of Webster that our Union is “rock-bottomed and copper-sheathed, one and indivisible.”

    For the divisions among us replicate those Webster witnessed in his last years before the War Between the States.

    A Gallup survey reports the lowest figure ever recorded, 38%, for that share of our population that proclaims itself to be “extremely proud” to be Americans. Another 27% say they are “very proud.”

    But the share of our people who say they are only “moderately proud” or a “little proud” or “not at all proud” to be Americans adds up to a third of the nation.

    In the past, those “extremely” or “very proud” to be Americans used to average 80% of the country. Now it is down to 65%.

    To love one’s country, Edmund Burke said, one’s country ought to be lovely. It would appear that 1 in 3 Americans, more than 100 million of us, no longer see our country as truly lovely.

    While patriotism and pride in U.S. citizenship and in being part of this national community are eroding, other problems are being revealed by public surveys.

    In a new AP-NORC poll, 85% of all Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, with 92% of Republicans believing this to be true and 78% of Democrats agreeing.

    On July 5, a Monmouth poll reported that President Joe Biden’s approval rating had sunk to 36%, with 59% disapproving of his presidency.

    As for our Democratic-led Congress, 15% of all Americans approved of its performance, with 85% disapproving.

    Another Gallup survey from July 5 reported that this last year has seen a fall in public confidence in every one of 16 major U.S. institutions.

    The institutions in which Americans now place the least confidence are the presidency, newspapers, the criminal justice system, big business, television news and, at rock bottom, Congress. Only 7% of Americans have great confidence or quite a bit of confidence in Capitol Hill.

    The institutions that enjoy the greatest measures of confidence – though here, too, the levels are receding like Lake Mead – are small business, the military, the police, the medical system and religious institutions.

    That small business is the most trusted of American institutions suggests that Biden’s attack on the alleged greed of gas station owners may not be politically wise.

    American institutions that tend to be conservative — small business, the military, cops — are where the American people repose the greatest confidence. Journalistic institutions — newspapers and TV news — both largely liberal, appear to be ones in which the nation reposes the lowest levels of confidence and the greatest deposits of distrust.

    Why are Americans so down on their country and disapproving of its direction, and of their president who is leading them?

    Surely, the pandemic, which has taken a million lives in 30 months and infects 10 times as many of us today as it did a year ago, with the death toll roughly the same now as then, is a primary cause.

    The crisis at the Mexican border where a quarter of a million illegal migrants enter our country, uninvited, every month, with cartel mules ferrying the fentanyl and other narcotics that kill tens of thousands of young Americans every year is surely another.

    Then there is the worst inflation in 40 years and the record rise in the price of food and fuel for America’s families.

    Also, since the first of the year, there have been an average of 10 “mass shootings” a week, where a criminal gunman wounds or kills four or more victims. Major atrocities like Buffalo, New York; Uvalde, Texas; and Highland Park, Illinois, dominate the news for days.

    And each weekend seems to bring a new casualty report of the dead and wounded from Chicago’s streets that reminds us of the early days of Vietnam.

    Then there is the poisonous character of American politics.

    In the 2016 campaign, Hillary Clinton famously described half of the supporters of Donald Trump as a “basket of deplorables.”

    They are, said Hillary, “racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic … irredeemable … bigots” all.

    Following the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade and sending the issue of abortion back to the states for decision, the term “fascist” has been applied by the left to its right-to-life opponents.

    Which makes one wonder.

    If Republicans capture two or three dozen House seats in this fall’s midterm elections, would that constitute a triumph of American fascism?

    And how does the left argue that we should come together and stand on “common ground” with folks such as those Clinton describes?

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/11/2022 – 19:20

  • Illinois Economy, Jobs Suffer Under Potential Presidential Candidate J.B. Pritzker
    Illinois Economy, Jobs Suffer Under Potential Presidential Candidate J.B. Pritzker

    By Ted Dabrowski of Wirepoints

    With rumors heating up about Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s potential run for president and the federal governments’ recent release of GDP numbers for the first quarter of 2022, it’s a good moment to review the governor’s economic performance since he took office in 2019. Polls today consistently show economic issues as the biggest concern for Americans.

    Illinois’ growth and jobs numbers aren’t pretty for Gov. Pritzker and they’re dwarfed by the much better numbers coming from Illinois’ neighboring states. 

    Illinois’ real GDP (adjusted for inflation) has grown an anemic 0.5 percent over the three-year period the governor has held the economic reins, according to U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data. 

    Contrast that to Indiana’s GDP increase of 6.1 percent and Iowa’s 5.2 percent. Michigan, Kentucky and Missouri all experienced an increase of more than 3 percent.

    Slower-growing Wisconsin managed to grow 1.6 percent – still three times more than Illinois’ 0.5 percent growth.

    Overall, Illinois’ GDP growth ranks 41st nationally (50 = worst) during the governor’s three years in office.

    The governor can’t separate himself from those poor GDP numbers given the Covid policies he’s imposed on Illinoisans over the last two-plus years. His lockdowns and other mitigations have been among the most draconian in the country. A recent study published through the National Bureau of Economic Research gave Illinois an “F” for its handling of Covid – one of just five states to get an “F” – and found that the state’s policies did more economic harm than good.

    In fact, Gov. Pritzker continues to declare Illinois and all its counties a “disaster area,” allowing him to maintain his executive order powers over masking, school and business closures, and vaccinations. None of Illinois’ neighboring states have any such disaster declaration or emergency rules. See our Instagram reel on Gov. Pritzker’s most recent disaster declaration.    

    The impact of those policies can be seen in the collapse of the state’s GDP compared to Illinois’ neighboring states. The graphic below shows the cumulative growth for each state since Q1 2019, when Pritzker became governor. 

    Illinois was the last to recover its economic losses from the pandemic and it has lagged its neighbors throughout. 

    The failure to grow has negatively impacted Illinoisans’ overall wealth and welfare. The growth in economic output over the three years was the equivalent of just $300 per capita in Illinois. In Indiana, it was 10 times higher at $2,994 per capita. The full comparison of Illinois versus its neighbors is in the appendix.

    And when it comes to jobs, Illinois’ unemployment number still lags far behind the rest of the nation. The state is tied with Pennsylvania for the nation’s 4th-worst unemployment rate.

    Illinois’ unemployment rate is a full percentage point higher than the national average of 3.6 percent. It’s also more than double Indiana’s 2.2 percent rate. 

    What if Illinois’ unemployment rate was the same low rate as Indiana’s? An additional 155,000 unemployed Illinoisans would have work today.

    Pritzker’s poor economic record stands in sharp contradiction with the record he’s been pushing at the state and national level. In recent speeches, he’s been taking credit for what he claims are “balanced” state budgets, as well as Illinois’ first credit upgrades in two decades.

    But those credit upgrades and “improved” finances have nothing to do with any fiscal or economic reforms implemented by the governor or the legislature. He’s passed no reforms of any consequence. In fact, most of the laws passed since Pritzker took office have increased the cost of government – we’ve documented much of that here and here.

    The real difference in Illinois’ situation, which the governor fails to acknowledge, is the $186 billion in federal Covid aid that the private and public sectors in Illinois have received over the last two years. That influx of cash has pushed up the state’s tax receipts to record levels and that’s taken immediate pressure off of the state when it comes to repaying its bond holders. Illinois has gotten credit upgrades as a result, the first in more than 20 years. Just two years ago Illinois was just one notch away from a junk rating.

    To buttress our point, it’s been a similar story in New Jersey and Connecticut, two of the nation’s other fiscal basket cases. There, floods of federal cash also bailed them out, resulting in the first credit upgrades in 20 years for both New Jersey and Connecticut.

    An honest appraisal

    If Gov. Pritzker would give an honest assessment of Illinois, he’d tell Americans that the massive inflow of COVID aid is only temporarily hiding the state’s major problems. That Illinois still has the country’s worst and biggest pension crisis. That it is one of the country’s three states with a shrinking population. That Illinoisans are punished by the country’s highest property taxes. And that Illinois is still only three notches away from a junk rating, the worst in the country.

    And an honest assessment would tell Illinoisans that the state needs massive reforms to begin fixing the above. 

    Unsurprisingly, we’re not going to get that kind of assessment from a politician more concerned with his presidential aspirations than with his record in Illinois. 

    Appendix

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/11/2022 – 18:40

  • As Biden Approval Crashes To Record Lows, The 2024 Anti-Trump Strategy Is "Hoping He Dies"
    As Biden Approval Crashes To Record Lows, The 2024 Anti-Trump Strategy Is “Hoping He Dies”

    Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse, it does.

    President Biden is now over 6 percentage points less favored than Trump was at this time into his term, and perhaps worse still for the Washington spin-meisters, Biden’s own record low approval rating is equal to the lowest level that Trump ever achieved…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Worse still, Biden’s approval rating is plunging despite gas prices starting to come down (amid recession fears)

    Source: Bloomberg

    So perhaps it’s something else that is bugging ‘average joe’ about ‘president joe’?

    In fact, it is so bad that, according to a new New York Times/Siena College poll published Monday, a majority of Democrats say they would prefer a new candidate over President Biden on the ballot in 2024.

    Decades-high inflation, record-high gas prices, record-low approval ratings and concerns about Biden’s age are among the many issues that have prompted roughly 64% of Democratic voters polled to they believe the party should nominate a different candidate for president in 2024.

    As Axios reports, that figure is even more stark among young Democratic voters, with 94% of those aged 18–29 saying they would prefer a new candidate. Furthermore, a mere 33% of all respondents in the survey said they somewhat or strongly approved of the job Biden has done as president.

    Only 13% of respondents said they believe the country is on the right track, the lowest the Times has found since the height of the financial crisis over 10 years ago, per the New York Times.

    The good news for Republicans is that President Biden has stated more than once he intends to run for re-election in 2024.

    But, a panel on Chuck Todd’s NBC show Sunday let slip the new strategy for 2024 – hope Trump dies…

    As Summit News’ Steve Watson reports, the Meet The Press host asked his guests how would Trump accept losing if he ran again, to which National Review editor Rich Lowry began to respond that there is only a 15% chance that Trump will not run.

    Todd then suggested that “the only answer [to that question] is death.”

    Atlantic journalist Mark Leibovich then chimed in and suggested that “the only plan we have, as one former Republican congressman said… is sitting around hoping he [Trump] dies.”

    Watch:

    While we are well aware of the macabre-ness of this, if we were gambling men, we might humbly suggest these Democratic and anti-Trump strategists are betting on the wrong man to die first.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/11/2022 – 18:20

  • Rebranding Elitism: Calling The Liberal World Order For What It Is
    Rebranding Elitism: Calling The Liberal World Order For What It Is

    Authored by Mark Jeftovic via BombThrower.com,

    Today’s elites are caught in a dilemma: nobody wants what they’re selling.

    They promised a world where under their expert management, the economy would function unfailingly, there would be peace in our time, and when the pandemic hit they had it all under control (anybody remember “Two weeks to flatten the curve?”). They even tease us with transhumanist visions of perpetual bliss in a metaverse and the abolition of death itself.

    All we have to do in exchange for these trappings of an AI driven post-singularity bliss is cede our sovereignty and our individual free will. Sure, we get decide the little things for ourselves. iOS or Android. Pfizer or Moderna. But for really big issues, like “how will we ratchet down the living standards of every plebeian on Earth in order to deal with this debt bubble climate change, all of this has already been decided. You’ll get to choose how you want to follow the rules, not whether the rules are fair or even make any sense (it’s called “subsidiarity”).

    But there’s a problem. A big one.

    It threatens the bring down the elites and even the idea of globalism itself:

    The problem that is none of their policies are working. In fact they’re actually causing even more damage to the global economy and unleashing greater havoc on the social fabric:

    • Supply chains are failing because of second-order effects of lockdowns.

    • Energy crises are unfolding due to delusional ESG narratives and platitudes.

    • The global economy is imploding because of a super-sized credit bubble and central bank interventions.

    To top it all off, looking at the data coming out now it would not surprise me if we figure out that the vaccines are doing more damage than COVID ever did.

    The elite response has included incessant rebranding, from “The Great Reset” and “Build Back Better”, to “Stakeholder Capitalism”, or so called “Woke Capitalism”, and then (the short lived and lame) “The Great Narrative”.

    The “Liberal World Order” is the latest incarnation of this branding exercise. This is the new name for the hill the peasants are expected to die on…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    What the Liberal World Order actually is

    To understand what the ruling elites are trying to achieve, it helps to look at the worldview of one of the high priests of globalism: Henry Kissinger and his book, simply titled “World Order”.

    The era we have been in since a group of treaties were signed in the mid-1600’s that ended The Thirty Years War is defined as The Peace of Westphalia. It codifies the nation state as supreme sovereign within its borders. It conferred legitimacy to rule on each sovereign, be it a monarch, or a democracy or some kind of hybrid.

    The supreme objective of the Westphalian system was to achieve world order through balance of power. No more total wars, like the Thirty Years War. Just limited ones to fine tune (“recalibrate”, in Kissinger’s terms) power shifts between nations.

    One characteristic of the Westphalian system was that there was indeed an undeclared, albeit widely acknowledged, hegemon, who acted as the guarantor of “the rules based order” of the day. It used to be the United Kingdom, but after World War II became the United States.

    However make no mistake, the Westphalian system was not democratic, even if some of its building blocks were nominally democracies. It was

    “a new era of Enlightenment governance by benevolent despotism which was legitimized by its effectiveness, not ideology”.

    Kissinger was referring specifically to Frederick II of Prussia in that passage, but it accurately encompasses his overall approach to statesmanship. (I’ve heard it said that the difference between Machiavelli and Kissinger was that Machiavelli was an idealist, but that Kissinger is a Machiavellian – the source eludes me, sorry)

    To its credit, the Westphalian system enabled human flourishing, not seen since before the Dark Ages. The developments we call the Enlightenment and Renaissance became unstoppable waves of change, under which the level of intellectual abstraction and socio-economic decentralization undertook a quantum leap, and with it, the living standards of the masses.

    Make no mistake, the machinations of rival states and ever-shifting alliances required a lubricant, and that was an elite class that could inject congruent agendas across all spheres:

    “International orders that have been the most stable have had the advantage of uniform perceptions. The statesmen who operated the eighteenth century European order were aristocrats who interpreted intangibles like honour and duty in the same way and agreed upon fundamentals. They represented a single elite society who spoke the same language… a sense of overarching common purpose was inherent. Power calculations in the eighteenth century took place against this ameliorating background of a shared sense of legitimacy and unspoken rules of international conduct.”

    The big loser, was the Catholic Church. Since the Fall of Rome, they had inexorably centralized all the power, inserted themselves as sole arbiter of spiritual truth, became the largest land owner in the world, and who basically decided and enforced the “social contract” for most of the known world.

    They too, were the guarantors of a world order of sorts in their day. Arguably less effectively than what was achieved under the Westphalian framework.

    The Catholic Church’s hegemony was doomed, because it was attempting to maintain its order on an increasingly obsolete worldview. Settled science of the day included that the heavens revolved around the earth and the Bubonic Plague was caused by Jews.

    Like the preceding order before it, the Westphalian system is started to break down over a century ago, disrupted by revelations on par with “the world is not flat” (like the discovery of quantum mechanics that consciousness precedes matter) not to mention self-inflicted follies like the advent of central banking and fiat money.

    It’s no surprise that the Westphalian Peace was economically supported by large periods of gold backed money and only started to breakdown in earnest when combatants abandoned sound money to fight the world wars of the 20th century.

    What we have today is the the transition of the Westphalian System to whatever comes next, and its still a little early define what that next phase is (In my old podcasts with Charles and Jesse we used to call it “The Network State”. That phrase turned out to be coined earlier by Balaji Srinivasan who’s new book by that name just came out).

    When the Catholic Church entered its long descent, they fought it tooth and nail. The Holy Inquisition, which lasted centuries and inflicted untold misery, can be seen as the last, frantic clinging to relevancy and power by a system that was being outrun by history.

    So too, the elite class that lords over the Westphalian System (known in our time as “globalism”), will not go easily into that good night. Via technocratic authoritarianism, promulgated under harmless sounding platitudes (“recalibrating” your rights, “reset” the system, “re-imagining” your future), it will cause immeasurable harm and destruction, only to ultimately fail for the sole reason of trying to shoehorn outdated modes of organization (top-down force of the state) on a new, incompatible reality (decentralized networks secured by public-key cryptography).

    The silver lining of pandemic is that it has acted as a catalyst, pulling forward decades of creeping totalitarianism and compressing it into 18 months, has resulted in a quickening of this transition. The Liberal World Order’s manipulations to manage the pandemic and to control this wider transition are simply accelerating it, into something foreign to legacy institutions and beyond their control.

    These machinations include these incessant and frantic rebranding exercises. The aspiration behind all of these labels is that they are trying to condition into your psyche, as if it were objective fact, that the natural order of things is that they get to set the rules and we get to follow them.

    However the growing perception among the public, is that with every policy failure and each rebranding iteration, these elites are conceding that they are, in fact, losing control, losing relevance …and scared.

    Each renaming emphasizes their aloofness, showing how their obsessions with models and nomenclature in their minds trump results and reality. By enacting draconian, one-sided arbitrary dictums that have backfired catastrophically, they’ve produced untold misery and destruction. Now they want to double down and keep running the show.

    The biggest difference between the shift half a millennia ago and this one is the speed with which it is happening. Where entire generations were born, lived and died without ever experiencing any noticeable change in the order of things, today we see it changing in realtime.

    The New Order is Emergent

    As Kissinger ruminates near the end of ‘World Order’, we’re in the Twilight of the Westphalian system:

    “In the world of geopolitics, the order established and proclaimed by Western countries stands at a turning point. It’s nostrums are understood globally, but there is no consensus about their application; indeed concepts such as democracy, human rights, and international law are given such divergent interpretations that warring parties regularly invoke them against each other as battle cries”

    What humanity is gradually figuring out is that true order is emergent. Market signals traverse the medium of individual experience in a way that often defies institutionalized understanding, especially when those institutions insist on being informed by outdated modes of thinking.

    For example, why in Canada, where 85% of the population took two doses of vaccines in order to become “fully vaxxed” are we now the lowest uptake of third shot boosters in the G7?

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    In decentralized, multi-polar architectures, understanding signal is more of an art than science, especially given the incessant distortions inflicted by legions of corporate media “fact checkers”.

    In this coming era of network states and legions of sovereign individuals (empowered by holding unseizable, frictionless capital in form of Bitcoin and other digital assets), formalized top-down frameworks are doomed not only to fail, but to exacerbate problems.

    Kissinger, again:

    “Every international order must sooner or later face the impact of two tendencies challenging its cohesion: either a redefinition of legitimacy or a significant shift in the balance of power”

    Or, maybe both.

    *  *  *

    Sign up for The Bombthrower mailing list to ge updates straight into your inbox and get a free copy of The Crypto Capitalist Manifesto while you’re at it. Follow me on GettrTelegram or if you haven’t been kicked off Twitter yet, there.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/11/2022 – 18:00

  • Costco CEO Warns "A Lot Of Consumers Are In Recession Right Now"
    Costco CEO Warns “A Lot Of Consumers Are In Recession Right Now”

    One question macro-watchers have on their minds is the state of the US consumer amid increasing threats of recession. The White House and Federal Reserve offer their perspective of a healthy consumer, but that’s in total aggregate. It fails to show the entire story of working-poor Americans suffering amid the worst inflation storm in forty years. 

    What better way to get a fresh glimpse of consumer health is via CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” interview with Craig Jelinek, CEO of Costco Wholesale Corporation, on Monday, who said overall “the consumer isn’t doing bad,” but also mentioned, “a lot of people, right now, they’re in a recession because they’re just trying to survive by just buying gas and making house and rent payments.” 

    Sounds confusing, right? But it’s not. With some clarification, Jelinek said wealthier households still have “discretionary income to buy goods,” which means the lower tier of consumers is perhaps tapped out. 

    What’s important is the CEO of the second-largest retailer in the world said, “consumers are getting more cautious.” It’s not necessarily a sign that all consumption is about to roll over, but cracks appear in lower-tier spenders.

    He pointed out that luxury spending, such as jewelry sales, is beginning to slow, and many consumers have shifted away from buying computers and televisions. 

    Jelinek’s interview sheds more light on some consumers, especially lower-tier ones, who are pulling back on spending as their credit cards are maxed out, and personal savings are drained. Though, the Biden administration, White House-aligned economists, and Fed conveniently ignore the bottom tier of consumers and only concentrate on the aggregate — not allowing for the entire consumption story to be told. 

    This matters because 70% of the US GDP is driven by consumption. If not all consumers are healthy, it could be an ominous sign that economic trouble is ahead. 

    One particularly troubling data point is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey hitting new lows. 

    Then there’s America’s ‘Misery Index– a broad measure of household wellbeing that combines unemployment rates with inflation rates – is back to levels not seen since the stagflationary period of one-termer Jimmy Carter. 

    And the jobs number last Friday wasn’t all that great because it showed some people taking on multiple jobs — a sign the consumer isn’t strong. 

    Optically, consumers appear in decent shape if one is to examine the aggregate, but that doesn’t tell the whole story as Costco’s CEO speaks about the inconvenient truth that not all consumers are healthy as some folks have begun to use micro-loans to afford gas and groceries. 

    Watch here for the full interview. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/11/2022 – 17:40

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Today’s News 11th July 2022

  • Date-Rape Drugs Crash German Chancellor's Summer Party
    Date-Rape Drugs Crash German Chancellor’s Summer Party

    German police are investigating at least nine women suspected of being targeted with date rape drugs at an invite-only event hosted by the German chancellor’s political party. 

    German newspaper Tagesspiegel first broke the troubling story about Wednesday’s annual summer party for Social Democratic Party (SDP), which Chancellor Olaf Scholz attended. 

    A police investigation was opened after a 21-year-old woman felt dizzy hours into the party. The following day, she could not recall what happened the previous night and was sent to the hospital for blood tests. 

    SDP’s co-leader, Lars Klingbeil, told Welt television he was “furious that something like this could happen at the event.” He said SDP leadership is speaking with authorities to find the “perpetrator or perpetrators” responsible for the attacks on women. 

    “I advise all those concerned to file a complaint,” SPD’s Katja Mast tweeted, while a party spokesman told AFP on Saturday there was “still a lot of uncertainty; the police are investigating.”

    The spokesperson said there could be other cases adding nine women who have already come forward. 

    The SPD sent an email to all invitees condemning a “monstrous act which we immediately declared to parliamentary police.”

    Tagesspiegel published a letter from the SPD parliamentary group leader Mathias Martin to colleagues explaining, “At our summer party, there were obviously attacks on colleagues with knockout drops.” 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/11/2022 – 02:45

  • The Great Awakening Continues – 'Ve Vil Not Eet Ze Bugz, Klaus'
    The Great Awakening Continues – ‘Ve Vil Not Eet Ze Bugz, Klaus’

    Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

    “The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist.”

    — THE USUAL SUSPECTS

    When the Canadian truckers descended in peace on Ottawa protesting the vaccine mandate of Justin TrueDOH! it was obvious to many that something fundamental had changed. This wasn’t some Davos Crowd psy-op like burning down Minneapolis or a Million Vagina March.

    This was a real awakening of the opposition to the Great Reset. Destroying the livelihoods of the people who bring the goods to our stores was a step too far. Even the most normalcy-biased shitlib had to do a double take at what was happening with the COVID vaccines.

    How did we get here so fast?

    Davos’ agenda has accelerated in recent months as major events force their hand. From Jerome Powell’s war on the offshore dollar markets to Putin choosing the whether he hangs or we drown, the pillars of their powerbase are crumbling under the weight of their ambitions.

    Most people can’t conceive of what these big shifts actually mean. Sadly, they still rely on what small amount of information they get from their overlords to form their opinions. But that information has become so ludicrous, so low quality, it’s got enough people open to questions they would have never contemplated previously.

    It’s a start. And once the last vestiges of trust in our media melts away, we’ll see a whole lot more than the protests we’ve seen to date.

    Yes, things can get worse.

    That said, the catalyst for Europe’s farmers rising up was the crazy miscalculation of Davos‘ minions TrueDOH! and his Ukrainian diaspora bagwoman Chrystia Freeland. Freezing the accounts of truckers and trampling peaceful protestors with horses woke way too many people up.

    When you anger the banks, radicalize normies, and create a nationwide bank run you set a countdown timer on your rule.

    First they came for the truckers to engineer a supply crisis. People supported them in droves and were trampled.

    Now they came for the Dutch farmland to further engineer a food crisis and the farmers took up the Truckers’ flag.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    For weeks I’ve wondered whether the spate of fires at food processing facilities all across North America were sabotage or just the natural downstream effect of overworked people and under-maintained equipment.

    It’s a fair point to consider rather then just go off half-cocked about evils of Davos. Because in the end, it doesn’t matter what the truth is (likely a mixture of both), these breakdowns are all their fault anyway.

    Thank that idiotic COVID policy.

    But how about fertilizer train derailments?

    Or a thousand dead cows from heat prostration?

    When the Farmers Revolution began in the Netherlands I realized this was something deeper. And I was glad for it. The Great Awakening that began in Ottawa and spread worldwide then has metastasized into a real political nightmare for Klaus Schwab and his merry gang of nihilist midwits.

    You know they are on auto-pilot seizing the land of efficient Dutch farmers. The Netherlands is routinely praised by Davos as a kind of sustainable agriculture Mecca. So why go after them? Why not further demonize American farmers. I mean everyone just knows Americans are wasteful and dirty pigs, right?

    And then I came across the plans for Tristate City and, for me, it all clicked into place.

    Bankrupt the farmers through legislative fiat and seize their land to build the Davos Smart City of the Future. The perfect “Capitol of the Corporatocracy.”

    Try googling anything about this connection and you’ll find very little. Look at a Twitter search of “Tristate City” and come to your own conclusions.

    Think Minority Report but with Germans.

    Periodic Revolution

    Davos’ War Against the Periodic Table continues unabated. But notice how they aren’t going after truly poisonous elements like Mercury (Hg) or Thallium (Tl) or even Arsenic (As). FYI, due to their extreme chemistry they are actually easy and cheap to deal with.

    No they are going after the building blocks of life itself — Carbon (C), Hydrogen (H), Oxygen (O), Nitrogen (N), Phosphorus (P) and Sulfur (S), or CHNOPS.

    We have the stated goal of ‘decarbonization’ worldwide.

    Phosphorus and Nitrogen have been attacked relentlessly as outgrowths of the war on ‘chemical fertilizers,’ smokestack emissions, etc. for decades now.

    Our entire transport industry has been made less efficient, raising the costs through unnecessary low-sulfur diesel and bunker fuel rules.

    Now we’re supposed to cheer LNG-powered small dry weight tonnage ships as PROGRESS! Yeah, a $350 million boat for moving goods from Jacksonville to Puerto Rico. Brilliant!

    Let’s use the most expensive fuel imaginable (liquefied methane) for shipping, an industry where fuel costs are literally everything.

    But I thought fracking BAD!

    All under the rubric of clean air and buzzwords like ‘sustainability.’

    Now I’m all for a clean environment and dealing with real pollution which hampers human life and even the greater ecosystem/food web, but cows producing nitrogen are a part of the natural cycle of this essential element.

    What’s next? Legislating away volcanoes?

    Anti-Transhumanism

    It’s all downstream of convincing so many people to view themselves as a pollutant and to separate human activity out as ‘not-natural.’ Think of the argument framing here and it’s very simple. Humanity is not a part of the ‘natural world.’ Our activities are not an outgrowth of ‘nature’s pure design.’

    This is literally the argument about man-made Climate Change. Too bad they had to define man’s energy inputs to the environment in the most idiotic (and inaccurate) way imaginable, by ignoring more than 90% of the energy the sun and the Universe imparts to our planet.

    Now add in the basic understanding that everyone has a religion, even atheists. They just turn to worshipping something else. They go from gathering in churches to courthouses, cathedrals to classrooms, and temples to tract housing.

    The bottom line folks is this, “Everyone believes in somethingeven nihilists.”

    But this anti-humanism is far worse than any ‘Original Sin’ doctrine of Christianity. There the message is that we are flawed but redeemable because we carry the spark of the divine within us. The path to enlightenment is self-discovery and self-improvement.

    There the existential threat is your own legacy, nothing more. It’s an inward journey.

    Now the Climate religion has merged cynically with the hubris and colonialism of Davos to create something horrific and deadly. And since they have control over the sacred texts now, they are now crusaders who will not be stopped by people refusing to comply.

    You will be assimilated through the hammer and sickle masking the sword and shield.

    It’s for the greater good, after all.

    The memes are real, folks. We are the carbon they want to reduce. We are the livestock the think they can farm. The full force of their program to reduce us back to when we used to eat bugs to survive is here.

    Is that the legacy you want to leave this world with?

    If we don’t stop this here, there isn’t much room left to retreat. And if you doubt me, go talk to a farmer.

    Think Global, Act Local just took on a raft of deeper meanings. It’s past time we put them into action.

    *  *  *

    Join my Patreon if you don’t want to be reduced

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/11/2022 – 02:00

  • Biden Admin Wasting $10.6 Billion On Pfizer's COVID-19 Paxlovid Flop
    Biden Admin Wasting $10.6 Billion On Pfizer’s COVID-19 Paxlovid Flop

    Authored by Dr. David Gortler via thebluestateconservative.com,

    Back in November 2021, the White House paid drugmaker Pfizer nearly $5.3 billion ($5,290,000,000) for 10 million treatment courses of its experimental COVID-19 treatment.  Paxlovid is an antiviral combination of nirmatrelvir and ritonavir.

    Ritonavir was developed in 1989 and nirmatrelvir was developed in 2020.  In other words, Paxlovid wasn’t developed from scratch to treat COVID-19; the compounds already existed.

    In December 2021 Pfizer claimed initial study findings showed that Paxlovid cut the risk of hospitalization and death by nearly 90% in people with mild to moderate coronavirus infections.  Without context this statement is grossly misleading.  Just about everyone who gets the existing COVID-19 mutation will have mild or moderate disease yet, the drugmaker limited its study to people who were unvaccinated and who faced the greatest risk from the virus due to age or health problems, such as obesity.  An updated more recent analysis from 1,153 patients (out of a possible 2,246 patients) showed a lackluster, non-significant 51% relative risk reduction.  A sub-group analysis of 721 vaccinated adults with at least one risk factor for progression to severe COVID-19 showed a non-significant relative risk reduction in hospitalization or death (treatment arm: 3/361; placebo: 7/360)

    According to Pfizer’s official June 14th 2022 press release, results from the Phase 2/3 of the amended Paxlovid EPIC-SR (Evaluation of Protease Inhibition for COVID-19 in Standard-Risk Patients) study showed:

    • Paxlovid, the novel primary endpoint of self-reported, sustained alleviation of all symptoms for four consecutive days was not met.
    • Pfizer will cease enrollment into the EPIC-SR trial due to low rate of hospitalization or death in the standard-risk population.

    Tucked within Pfizer’s press release was the following financial nugget for investors:  “The results from these additional analyses are not expected to impact Pfizer’s full-year 2022 revenue guidance.”  The reason for that is: Pfizer already has $5.3 billion in hand from taxpayers, and has locked in “blockbuster status” (defined as one billion dollars in sales of a single drug).

    In addition to the $5.3 billion already committed, in January the U.S. announced a confidential additional “commitment” to order an additional 10 million doses (at the price of 5.3 billion dollars more, for a total of $10.6 billion) giving Pfizer highly sought after “super blockbuster status” (defined as having 10 billion dollars in sales of a single drug).  “The administration is firmly committed to proceeding with the (additional) purchase” a White House official stated in April 2022.

    According to Bloomberg, The White House initially sought $22.5 billion in new pandemic funding. Democrats were prepared to include just over $15 billion in a broad government spending bill earlier this year, but it was removed amid disputes with Republicans about whether it should be offset by spending cuts elsewhere in the government.

    The $10 billion Senate bill includes a requirement that at least half the money must be spent on therapeutics, but why did Biden gamble every dollar on one, single drug from one single drugmaker? Why was Pfizer chosen to satisfy the therapeutics clause by itself?

    Pfizer Altered its Paxlovid Protocol. . . After Receiving its first $5.3 billion:  

    As we can see, FDA Emergency Use Authorizations (EUAs) don’t always work out as they should, but in this case, it was because of some manipulative action by Pfizer and an outrageous and risky bet by the Biden White House.

    That’s because with no public mention, Pfizer had secretly lowered its own bar following its EUA after the White House had committed to purchasing $5.3 billion dollars of product.  Pfizer stated:

     

    “Following the Emergency Use Authorization of Paxlovid for individuals at high risk of progression to severe COVID-19, the protocol was amended to exclude high-risk individuals and allow enrollment of patients without risk factors for progression to severe COVID-19 who were either unvaccinated, or whose last COVID-19 vaccination occurred more than 12 months from enrollment.”  (emphasis added)

    This way, Pfizer was able to administer its drug to a less severely ill, and healthier population in hopes of having a superior efficacy signal and a decreased safety signal, but it still failed to show an adequate clinical effect on any of its prospective protocol-established endpoints.

    Secret FDA Meetings Sound Familiar?  That’s Because it’s Happened Before:  

    In order to amend the protocol following FDA submission, Pfizer would have had to have communicate about it with the FDA formally and in writing.  A former Pfizer non-scientist executive, Patrizia Cavazzoni is now the head of the FDA’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, would have had to approve the change.  Interestingly, Pfizer’s protocol amendment was kept under such tight wraps, that it was not known about until the Pfizer June 2022 press release.  About a week prior, Yale University’s YaleMedicine publication had even published a lengthy article on the benefits of Paxlovid as quoting the outdated original protocol endpoints.  On June 7th 2022, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla had announced plans to spend over $100 million to increase Paxlovid production and committing to hire hundreds of new employees as its way to maintain appearances with the White House and Pfizer investors.

    Paxlovid is not the first example of “secret” and scientifically questionable decisions have been made outside of standard channels at the FDA under Patrizia Cavazzoni’s watch.  About a year ago, secret meetings surrounded Biogen’s multi-billion-dollar monoclonal antibody drug aducanumab (Aduhelm) for Alzheimer’s Disease, which had failed both safety and efficacy on every study it had attempted.  However following contentious and potentially illegal and unethical back-channel meeting with Biogen executives.  Biogen’s drug was approved by Cavazzoni against advice from FDA advisory committee members and FDA employees.  Cavazzoni affirmed her decision by writing a comically inadequate 1.5 page justification — which mostly quoted others’ opinions and did zero to address their debatable hypotheses.  Nearly every medical commentator  scolded Cavazzoni’s approval of aducanumab, calling it things like “false hope,” “bad medicine,” “disgraceful,” “dangerous” “a disaster” or “a new low.”  The circumstances surrounding Pfizer’s Paxlovid and clinical outcomes are similarly awful.

    But unlike Biogen, I couldn’t even find any online record of a meeting, justifying the protocol amendment for Paxlovid by Cavazzoni, — let alone an inadequate one.  Pfizer would have had to provide detailed reasoning in its protocol amendment and the FDA kept those requests and those changes a secret.  Its just another example of the total lack of FDA transparency.

    I had opined in an op-ed article a year ago that Cavazzoni would continue to make questionable decisions due to her close ties and extended history of employment in big pharma.  Most of Cavazzoni’s career shows her working as a non-scientist big pharma executive.   She also has a conspicuous lack basic scientific or research experience for holding such a critical public health position. Unfortunately, I was correct, but it’s the taxpayer that will bear the failed Paxlovid gamble.

    The White House Wasted Many Billions and Looks Stupid(er) 

    One question is:  why did the White House commit to and cut a blank check of taxpayer dollars before obtaining conclusive findings?

    It’s not as if Pfizer is hurting for money or that Americans don’t already have multiple alternative inexpensive generic alternatives with an voluminous amount of peer-reviewed evidence behind them, covering decades and hundreds of thousands of patients.  Still the Biden White House made the choice to purchase Paxlovid and ignore the historic 6th century BCE wisdom from the Proverbs of Ahiqar and “throw away two in the hand (ie, hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin) for one in the bush (Paxlovid).”

    Americans Never Needed Paxlovid; Omicron/Delta COVID-19 Symptoms Are Mild. 

    What we all have known for some time is that the dominant mutated variants of Delta and Omicron (which comprise >99%, of current cases per the CDC) infections are mild, and deaths and hospitalizations are down because most people only get minimal to moderate cold-like symptoms these days.  Even Johns Hopkins shows all-time record lows in COVID-19-related hospital ICU admissions.

    Pfizer may have exaggerated its experimental product and been deceptive about changing its protocol without informing the public.  By trusting Pfizer and making a considerable gamble with taxpayer funds, the White House flushed $5.3 billion taxpayer dollars largely down the drain.  The White House is now on the hook for an additional $5.3 billion for a total of $10.6 billion for an ineffective COVID-19 treatment that Pfizer had already developed, when they could have spent almost nothing and promoted the established safety and efficacy of hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin with an established, superior outcome.  More practically, since Delta and Omicron are mild, we could have just let COVID-19 mutations run their course and treat infections symptomatically with available generic pharmacology so that individuals can obtain natural immunity.

    What a preposterous and outrageous waste of taxpayer money.  Will President Biden or anyone else be held responsible?  I think we all know the answer to that.

    By Dr. David Gortler

    Dr. David Gortler is a pharmacologist, pharmacist, and FDA and health care policy oversight fellow and FDA reform advocate at the Ethics and Public Policy Center think tank in Washington, DC. He was a professor of pharmacology and biotechnology at the Yale University School of Medicine, where he also served as a faculty appointee to the Yale University Bioethics Center.  While at Yale, he was recruited by the FDA and become a medical officer who was later appointed as senior advisor to the FDA commissioner for drug safety, FDA science policy, and FDA regulatory affairs.  He is an exiled columnist from Forbes, where he used to write on drug safety, healthcare politics, and FDA policy.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/10/2022 – 23:30

  • 42-Foot Tsunami Would Hit Seattle In Minutes After Quake, Study Finds
    42-Foot Tsunami Would Hit Seattle In Minutes After Quake, Study Finds

    The Washington State Department of Natural Resources (DNR) released a terrifying new simulation of a monster earthquake rocking the Seattle Fault that would produce a tsunami as high as four stories in the central business district of Seattle.

    Tsunami waves could be as high as 42 feet at the Seattle Great Wheel and will reach inland as far as Lumen Field and T-Mobile Park,” Washington State DNR tweeted. 

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    Washington Geological Survey division of DNR wrote in a press release that a 7.5-magnitude earthquake on the Seattle Fault would generate tsunami waves over 40 feet tall and hit the downtown district in less than three minutes.

    Geologists said the last known quake on the Seattle Fault occurred more than one thousand years ago, and geologic evidence shows at least five quakes of an estimated magnitude 6.5 occurred on the fault in the last 3,500 years. 

    “Most often, when we think of tsunamis, we think of our outer coast and communities along the Pacific Ocean. But there’s a long history of earthquakes on faults in Puget Sound.

    “While the history of earthquakes and tsunamis along the Seattle Fault is less frequent than the Cascadia subduction zone, the impacts could be massive. That’s why it’s critical these communities have the information they need to prepare and respond,” Commissioner of Public Lands Hilary Franz said in the release. 

    The study was “conducted to help local and state emergency managers and planners develop and refine response and preparedness plans for a tsunami in the middle of Washington’s largest population center and economic hub,” the release said.

    An earthquake swarm off the Pacific Northwest coastline in late December incited fears that the next big tsunami could be nearing

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/10/2022 – 23:00

  • Rep. Gohmert: "Violations Of American Rights" Of Jan. 6 Prisoners "Mind Blowing"
    Rep. Gohmert: “Violations Of American Rights” Of Jan. 6 Prisoners “Mind Blowing”

    Authored by Patricia Tolson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    At a press conference in Washington, three GOP representatives joined forces with the Patriot Freedom Project and family members of Jan. 6 prisoners to call out the injustice and denial of due process rights for those incarcerated. According to Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-Texas), the “violations of American rights” is “mind-blowing.”

    Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-Texas) delivers remarks at a June press conference regarding the denial of due process rights for Jan. 6 prisoners. (Cynthia Hughes/Patriot Freedom Project)

    “We are extremely concerned to see a Department of Justice, not about justice,” Gohmert said at the press conference. “It’s about vengeance. It’s about intimidation and the tactics that we’ve been seeing from this DOJ and the disregard for rights coming out of investigations showing the FBI lied, intel lied. The DOJ lies. It ought to concern every single American.”

    Rep. Troy Edwin Nehls (R-Texas), Patriot Freedom Project Founder Cynthia Hughes, Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) and Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-Texas). (Courtesy of Cynthia Hughes)

    As a former felony judge and chief justice, it’s particularly mind-blowing for me during a time when we should have the most fair courts in our history. We have more violations of American’s rights than even under the Hoover FBI,” Gohmert told The Epoch Times in a June 22 interview. “It’s just incredible. People that have been nominated and confirmed by the Senate as federal judges, granting warrants that don’t specify with any particularity—as the Constitution requires—what they’re for. What’s worse, when they find out they were lied to under oath by DOJ. But they’re not really bothered. They don’t do anything about it. For heaven’s sake. Have respect for your position if you have no respect for yourself.”

    Also in attendance were Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.).

    Reps. Troy Edwin Nehls (R-Texas), Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), and Cynthia Hughes, founder of the Patriot Freedom Project. (Courtesy of Cynthia Hughes)

    According to Cynthia Hughes, founder of the Patriot Freedom Project, the press conference was “a great day.”

    “We finally got some support from people in congress, which we needed,” Hughes told The Epoch Times. “We are feeling powerful and strong.”

    Hughes also said she was glad to finally have the opportunity to “personally call out [Rep.] Liz Cheney and know that she could possibly hear about that.”

    “Things are finally moving,” Hughes said. “I think we moved the needle. I just looked at representatives and the incredible women around me and I think we felt more hope than we ever have in almost 18 months now. It was a good thing.”

    Family Members Speak

    Following the press conference, The Epoch Times was able to speak with each of the family members to learn the stories of their loved ones they say the rest of the media refuses to tell. They want the American people to learn about the citizens their government has locked away in prison.

    Thomas Caldwell

    Sharon Caldwell of Berry Hill, Virginia, said she is grateful for Cynthia Hughes and the Patriot Freedom Project for the opportunity to have a press conference where she and the wives, mothers, and family members of Jan. 6 prisoners could speak about what they are going through.

    Sharon and Thomas Caldwell at the Peace Monument in Washington, during the Jan. 6, 2021, protest. (Courtesy of Sharon Caldwell)

    “Some of us have done interviews on the news but we never really had the support of Congress people,” Caldwell told The Epoch Times. “I felt like we had that [at the press conference] with three GOP representatives. It was awesome.”

    Sharon’s husband, Thomas Caldwell, has been charged with “Seditious Conspiracy to Obstruct an Official Proceeding Obstruction of an Official Proceeding and Aiding and Abetting Conspiracy to Prevent an Officer From Discharging Any Duties Tampering with Documents or Proceedings and Aiding and Abetting” (pdf).

    According to the Save Our Farm website, “the DOJ has falsely claimed that [Thomas] commanded a group called the ‘Oath Keepers’ to overthrow the U.S. government.  The allegations are ridiculous and outrageous.”

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/10/2022 – 22:30

  • "No Place For Virtue-Signaling In Finance" – HSBC 'Responsible Banking' Head Quits
    “No Place For Virtue-Signaling In Finance” – HSBC ‘Responsible Banking’ Head Quits

    It has been just over a month since HSBC reportedly suspended a senior executive after he questioned the risk climate change plays on financial markets, arguing investors shouldn’t worry about it, according to Financial Times

    Stuart Kirk, global head of responsible investing at HSBC Asset Management, told an audience in late May in London at a Financial Times Moral Money conference, “there always some nut job telling me about the end of the world.”

    In a resignation letter, posted to LinkedIn, Kirk explained that HSBC’s behaviour towards him since the speech has made staying in the role, ironically, “unsustainable”.

    Kirk’s post on LinkedIn highlighted issues around freedom of speech and the damage caused by cancel culture.

    Investing is hard. So is saving our planet. Opinions on both differ. But humanity’s best chance of success is open and honest debate. If companies believe in diversity and speaking up, they need to walk the talk. A cancel culture destroys wealth and progress,” he wrote.

    There is no place for virtue signalling in finance. Likewise as a writer, researcher and investor, I know that words or trading shares can only achieve so much. True impact comes from the combination of real-world action and innovative solutions.”

    Read the full letter below: (emphasis ours)

    Today I wish to announce that I have resigned as global head of responsible investing at HSBC Asset Management.

    Ironically given my job title, I have concluded that the bank’s behaviour towards me since my speech at a Financial Times conference in May has made my position, well, unsustainable.

    Funny old world.

    Over a 27-year unblemished record in finance, journalism and consulting I have only ever tried to do the best for my clients and readers, knowing that doing so helps my employer too.

    Investing is hard. So is saving our planet. Opinions on both differ. But humanity’s best chance of success is open and honest debate. If companies believe in diversity and speaking up, they need to walk the talk. A cancel culture destroys wealth and progress.

    There is no place for virtue signalling in finance. Likewise as a writer, researcher and investor, I know that words or trading shares can only achieve so much. True impact comes from the combination of real-world action and innovative solutions.

    Which is why I’ve been gathering a crack group of like-minded individuals together to deliver what is arguably the greatest sustainable investment idea ever conceived. A whole new asset class. Sounds fanciful – but I am not one for hyperbole, as viewers of my presentation know well.

    To be announced later this year, the first project will underline the central argument in my speech: that human ingenuity can and will overcome the challenges ahead, while at the same time offering huge investment opportunities.

    Meanwhile, I will continue to prod with a sharp stick the nonsense, hypocrisy, sloppy logic and group-think inside the mainstream bubble of sustainable finance. Follow me on LinkedIn if you want to learn the right way to think about ESG – and let me tell you, most of what’s out there is bonkers.

    Finally, can I take this opportunity to thank the tens of thousands of people – from chief executives and congressmen to scientists and mom and pop investors – who contacted me from around the world offering their support and solidarity over the past two months.

    You have given me strength during what has been a tumultuous time for me and my family. It is for you that the next chapter in my career will be devoted. Please forward this to anyone you know who cares about money and planet earth.

    *  *  *

    Watch Kirk’s full comments from May here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/10/2022 – 22:00

  • Biden's Dubious Tale Of 10-Year-Old Rape Victim Gets Dismantled
    Biden’s Dubious Tale Of 10-Year-Old Rape Victim Gets Dismantled

    Last week President Biden regurgitated a single-sourced claim that a 10-year-old girl was raped and forced to cross state lines to get an abortion.

    This isn’t some imagined horror. It is already happening. Just last week, it was reported that a 10-year-old girl was a rape victim — 10 years old — and she was forced to have to travel out of state to Indiana to seek to terminate the pregnancy and maybe save her life,” the president said during the signing of an executive order on abortion access in the wake of the Supreme Court striking down Roe v. Wade.

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    The claim – sourced to Indianapolis obstetrician-gynecologist, Caitlan Barnard – went viral, with multiple outlets breathlessly repeating it despite it having just one source, with no corroboration.

    According to Barnard, she “received a call from ‘a child abuse doctor’ in Ohio who had a 10-year-old patient who was six weeks and three days pregnant.” The Star reported that the child “was on her way to Indiana to Bernard’s care.”

    This doesn’t add up…

    It was so suspect that the Washington Post‘s resident fact checker, Glenn Kessler, declared that the claim did not meet journalistic standards.

    “This is the account of a one-source story that quickly went viral around the world — and into the talking points of the president,” wrote the fact checker.

    Kessler noted that “The only source cited for the anecdote was Bernard. She’s on the record, but there is no indication that the newspaper made other attempts to confirm her account.”

    When Kessler reached out to the journalist who wrote the piece for the Indianapolis Star, the journalist who wrote the piece ghosted him. The paper’s executive editor, Bro Krift, wrote “The facts and sourcing about people crossing state lines into Indiana, including the 10-year-old girl, for abortions are clear. We have no additional comment at this time.”

    Kessler notes what journalist Megan Fox pointed out days ago – that “Under Ohio law, a physician, as a mandated reporter under Ohio Revised Code 2151.421, would be required to report any case of known or suspected physical, sexual or emotional abuse or neglect of a child.” 

    “As a spot check, we contacted child services agencies in some of Ohio’s most populous cities, including Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Dayton and Toledo. None of the officials we reached were aware of such a case in their areas.”

    What’s more, abortion by 10-year-olds is very rare – with the Columbus Dispatch reporting that in 2020 there were just 52 girls under the age of 15 in the state who received abortions.

    Now, for a master class in breaking down bullshit – here’s Megan Fox’s Jul 5 Twitter thread which dismantles the original claim.

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    To read the rest, click on any of the tweets above.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/10/2022 – 21:00

  • Salon Website Corrects Year-Old Headline Saying DeSantis Forces Students To Register Political Views
    Salon Website Corrects Year-Old Headline Saying DeSantis Forces Students To Register Political Views

    Authored by Rita Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Left-wing outlet Salon changed a year-old headline, after falsely stating Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis signed a 2021 bill that forces Florida’s students and professors to register their political views with the state.

    Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks during a press conference held at the Cox Science Center & Aquarium in West Palm Beach, Fla., on June 8, 2022. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

    The original headline published in June 2021, which read “DeSantis signs bill requiring Florida students, professors to register political views with state,” has recently been updated with “DeSantis signs bill requiring survey of Florida students, professors on their political views.” In its latest version, the editorial team added a correction, claiming the change was made “to more accurately reflect the language of the bill in question.”

    Salon Executive Editor Andrew O’Hehir told CNN that the old headline “conveyed a misleading impression of what the Florida law actually said, and did not live up to our editorial standards.”

    Previous efforts by DeSantis’s office seeking a correction last year, however, were in vain, said his spokesperson Christina Pushaw.

    It should have happened much sooner,” Pushaw told CNN in a Thursday email. “The Salon reporter and editors should have read the legislation before writing an article about it.”

    The Florida law in question (pdf), signed by DeSantis in June last year, requires state colleges and universities to conduct annual viewpoint diversity surveys, so as to collect feedback from Florida’s post-secondary students on the intellectual freedom of the campus environment.

    Participation in the survey is both anonymous and voluntary, Bryan Griffin, a spokesman for the Republican governor, told Fox News on Wednesday.

    “This same fake claim was circling the liberal Twittersphere after the bill was signed in 2021. It was debunked then. It has been debunked again, now,” Griffin said.

    The recent correction came after the 2021 Salon story resurfaced and went viral on Twitter last week, widely promoted by high profile liberal users including Florida agriculture commissioner Nikki Fried, who is running for the Democratic nomination for governor to challenge DeSantis. As multiple fact-checks appeared debunking the narrative, she later deleted her post linking to the Salon story.

    Novelist Stephen King, a vocal critic of Republican politics with over 6.7 million Twitter followers, also posted the story on July 5 and received more than 25,000 shares and 135,000 likes.

    King eventually deleted it four days later and publicly apologized on Saturday. “That really was fake news,” he wrote in a Twitter post. “Sorry.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/10/2022 – 20:30

  • An Increasingly Hungry World: 8 Key Takeaways From The Food Inflation And Security Symposium
    An Increasingly Hungry World: 8 Key Takeaways From The Food Inflation And Security Symposium

    Morgan Stanley recently held a virtual Food Inflation & Security Symposium, in which the bank discussed a wide range of topics with experts from around the world. The Symposium followed the publication of the bank’s global collaborative note that involved over 30 Morgan Stanley analysts, entitled “Food Security & Inflation: From Seeds to Stores” (the note is available to professional subs).

    Below we summarize the bank’s key takeaways and variables that will drive future food prices, along with associated impacts to businesses and geopolitics.

    1. The majority view among experts and executives broadly matched Morgan Stanley’s view that food prices will likely reach a peak in 2022, a view that is below consensus among investors and below forward commodity prices. That said, there was significant discussion during multiple Symposium sessions around the magnitude of variables that could impact pricing, variables that are challenging to predict. For example, a chemical company executive viewed potash prices as likely to have already hit a peak, but the executive also believed that potash prices would remain high, representing a disconnect from prior periods of much lower fertilizer prices. Other experts pointed out the magnitude of impacts to food prices from crucially important (and challenging to predict) variables such as weather (especially in South America over the next several months), energy prices and geopolitics (and many speakers highlighted how closely these last two variables are linked).

    2. Regarding the outlook for grain prices, with fertilizer prices declining, farmers are still investing sufficiently to drive strong yields, which supports the bank’s view that grain prices will peak in 2022. That said, weather could take the world to Morgan Stanley’s high price case on grains, especially as the odds of a third consecutive La Niña are increasing (last time this happened was in 2001), and soil in Brazil and Argentina is already dry. This could be disruptive to inventories in the next year and has become a key concern. Market players are less worried about USA weather and crops, and in their views yields should be good, bringing more inventories and relief to short-term prices. Market players believe export restrictions generate short-term stress but gradually fade away, and were not overly concerned about the impacts of the reduction in Ukrainian supply.

    3. Protein prices, especially beef, could continue to rise, a dynamic that MS analyst, Ricardo Alves, has emphasized in recent reports including. The quote from Ricardo’s recent “Beef Super Cycle” report that has resonated with many investors: “Our in-depth supply & demand analysis shows that there’s just not enough beef in the world right now.” Beef is the most expensive protein, so of course demand is related to trade-down issues (pork and chicken relations), but there are multiple trends that favor strong continued demand for beef (e.g. China with gradual urbanization process, higher income per capita, higher and gradual penetration of beef).

    4. Impacts to “downstream” industries: packaged Food companies are likely to face increasing retailer pushback to higher pricing as the leverage is shifting from suppliers to retailers. For many “downstream” industries such as Packaged Food producers, Morgan Stanley’s base case food price estimates would be in-line to modestly bullish (in the sense that margin impacts from higher food prices may be somewhat overdone among the investor community). While input cost pressures are likely to moderate, consumers’ increasing focus on value when food shopping and greater retailer pushback to higher pricing can weigh on packaged food companies’ topline outlook. The expert discussion highlighted that retailers’ increasing focus on costs and offering consumers value should lead to tougher price negotiations.

    5. Geopolitical issues may continue to pressure existing food supply chains, with no easy short term fix. NATO recently stated the probability of the Russia/Ukraine conflict turning into a years-long war and under such conditions, it would be difficult to envision stable supply chain and trade corridors that could be established for agricultural commodities in the Ukraine. Similarly it’s difficult to envision sanctions on Russia being lifted, which should continue to create friction for their food exports. As Morgan Stanley details in its recent Blue Paper, the food issue is part of a larger secular challenge to supply chains from geopolitical issues. The twin trends of Slowbalization and the move to a ‘Multipolar World’ are forcing a rewiring of the global economy, where companies will out of necessity for supply chain security and public policy compliance invest in geographical diversification of supply chains. These transitions can be costly and have unintended consequences as they evolve. They also drive opportunities for the companies and countries that will be called on to build and house new supply chains.

    6. The impacts of elevated food prices are dramatically different at the national level, with some countries benefiting (such as Argentina and Brazil), while other countries are likely to experience multiple negative impacts. For instance, countries including Egypt, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Yemen rely on food aid while not having offsetting oil revenues. Only Nigeria has oil revenues to offset food costs. While food prices are down from recent record highs, prices are still higher than any time since 1974. The ranks of deeply food import-dependent countries are growing. In the United States, programs such as food stamps and school meal programs impact tens of millions of Americans. Though inflation-based indexing and maximum benefit policies have been put in place in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, the shift back to pre-Covid policies is poised to significantly impact everyone receiving benefits from any one of 18 programs. Sizing it up, the 18 programs grew from $50b to $150b in program size during Covid. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) alone is $100b. Every three months, the US HHS must extend the Public Health Emergency designation, currently in place through August this year. HHS has indicated that it would give the states a two-month notice prior to expiration. Seven states have already come off the public health emergency, and once it is over, a state may step in to offset a reduction in benefits. However, the amount of government assistance that goes away is likely to be stark. A silver lining would be if the loss of maximum benefits creates a sufficient incentive to increase labor force participation.

    7. The biggest game-changer for AgTech in the last 5 years has not been new innovation so much as cheap computing power. Technology is no longer a nice-to-have but rather a must-have. New technologies from drones to precision fertilizers can deliver 7-15% returns improvements within year one; importantly agnostic to the size of fields which had always been a limiting factor for smaller landowners. However, the biggest challenge at the moment remains sourcing labor. While automation tools are available, there is no expeditious solution in current markets.

    8. Sustainability implications are complex and require a nuanced approach from investors. ESG must address both food security and sustainable approaches to food production, which in some instances, have a complicated relationship. In the current backdrop, historic parallels of food-related social unrest emphasize the social considerations of economically producing sufficient amounts of food. Long-term, however, unsustainable farming practices contribute to climate change, a key structural risk to food security. According to MS panelists, investors should “realistically” approach solutions that have no agreed upon definition from a sustainability perspective – such as gene editing. Investors should also recognize farmers are often too “risk saturated” to realize potentially lower yields from a shift toward regenerative farming practices. As a result, corporates that are dependent on farmers, a critical and climate-vulnerable part of the supply chain, should consider supporting the industry’s transition by absorbing some of this risk.

    More in the full Morgan Stanley note available to pro subs.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/10/2022 – 20:00

  • Ghislaine Maxwell Appeals Verdict, Sentence In Sex Trafficking Case
    Ghislaine Maxwell Appeals Verdict, Sentence In Sex Trafficking Case

    Authored by Dave Paone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Convicted sex trafficker Ghislaine Maxwell has filed an appeal of both her conviction and sentence.

    In this courtroom sketch, Ghislaine Maxwell (R) is seated beside her attorney Christian Everdell as they watch the prosecutor speak during her sentencing, on June 28, 2022, in New York. (AP Photo/Elizabeth Williams)

    Maxwell was found guilty in federal court for her role in trafficking young women for the sexual pleasure of her employer and one-time romantic partner, Jeffrey Epstein.

    In December, Maxwell was convicted on five counts of sex trafficking, including one count involving a minor. On June 28, she was sentenced to 20 years in prison and fined $750,000.

    Sarah Ransome (R) and Elizabeth Stein, victims of Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell, speak to the media outside a federal court in New York on June 28, 2022. (AP Photo/John Minchillo)

    On July 7, attorney Bobbi Sternheim filed a two-page notice of appeal with the court and paid the $505 docketing fee.

    Presiding Judge Alison Nathan had advised the 60-year-old Maxwell of her right to appeal before she handed down the sentence.

    Immediately afterward, some people expressed outrage at such a short sentence, compared to how many years of abuse her victims had suffered.

    There has also been a public demand for Maxwell to release the names of Epstein’s friends—supposedly famous and powerful men—who took part in the abuse.

    In her victim impact statement read at the sentencing, Sarah Ransome referenced those men.

    I became, against my will, nothing more than a sex toy with a heartbeat and a soul for the entertainment of Epstein, Maxwell, and others,” Ransome said. “I was subjected to sexual predation multiple times per day, both in his New York mansion and on his private island in the U.S. Virgin Islands.

    “On one visit to the island, the sexual demands, degradation, and humiliation became so horrific that I tried to escape by attempting to jump off a cliff into shark-infested waters.”

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/10/2022 – 19:30

  • Chinese Bank Run Turns Violent After Angry Crowd Storms Bank of China Branch Over Frozen Deposits
    Chinese Bank Run Turns Violent After Angry Crowd Storms Bank of China Branch Over Frozen Deposits

    While the world of high, and not so high finance, is obsessing over the volatility of cryptos and recent painful losses for overlevered players who – much to the amazement of plain vanilla equity investors – were not bailed out by a magnanimous Fed (which however only rescues stock markets, not cryptos), things in China with its $54 trillion financial system, or more than double the size of assets across US commercial banks, are once again getting heated.

    As Reuters reports, a large crowd of angry Chinese bank depositors faced off with police Sunday in the city of Zhengzhou, and many were injured as they were taken away, amid the freezing of their deposits by some rural-based banks.

    The banks froze millions of dollars worth of deposits in April, telling customers they were upgrading their internal systems. The banks have not issued any communication on the matter since, depositors said.

    According to Chinese media the frozen deposits across the various local banks could be worth up to $1.5 billion and authorities are investigating the three banks.

    On Sunday, about 1,000 people gathered outside the Zhengzhou branch of China’s central bank on Sunday to demand action; they held up banners and chanted slogans on the wide steps of the entrance to a branch of China’s central bank in the city of Zhengzhou in Henan province, about 620 kilometers (380 miles) southwest of Beijing.

    People hold banners and chant slogans during a protest at the entrance to a branch of China’s central bank in Zhengzhou in central China’s Henan Province. A large crowd of angry Chinese bank depositors faced off with police Sunday, some reportedly injured as they were roughly taken away

    The protesters are among thousands of customers who opened accounts at six rural banks in Henan and neighboring Anhui province that offered higher interest rates. They later found they could not withdraw their funds after media reports that the head of the banks’ parent company was on the run and wanted for financial crimes.

    Videos and photographs on social media showed depositors waving banners and throwing plastic bottles at approaching security guards who then roughly dragged some of the protesters away.

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    Besides uniformed police, there were the teams of men in plain T-shirts. A banking regulator and a local government official arrived, but their attempts to talk to the crowd were shouted down.

    “We came today and wanted to get our savings back, because I have elderly people and children at home, and the inability to withdraw savings has seriously affected my life,” said a woman from Shandong province, who only gave her last name, Zhang, out of fear of retribution. Zhang and another protester, a man from Beijing surnamed Yang, told the AP the protesters had heard from the officials before and don’t believe what they say.

    The police then announced to the protesters from a vehicle with a megaphone that they were an illegal assembly and would be detained and fined if they didn’t leave. Around 10 a.m., the men in T-shirts rushed the crowd and dispersed them. Zhang said she saw women dragged down the stairs of the bank entrance. Zhang herself was hit, and said she asked the officer, “Why did you hit me?” According to her, he responded: “What’s wrong with beating you?”

    Yang said he was hit by two security officers including one who had fallen off the stairs and mistakenly thought in the chaos that Yang had hit or pushed him.

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    “Although repeated protests and demonstrations don’t necessarily have a big impact, I think it is still helpful if more people get to know about us, and understand or sympathize with us,” Yang said. “Each time you do it, you might make a difference. Although you will get hit, they can’t really do anything to you, right?”

    “I feel so aggrieved I can’t even explain it to you,” Zhang, 40, told Reuters. Zhang said he had been hoping to retrieve about 170,000 yuan ($25,000) deposited with one of the banks, the Zhecheng Huanghuai Community Bank.

    Zhang said he had suffered injuries to his foot and thumb, and was taken away by four unidentified security personnel at around midday. Security personnel outnumbered protesters by around three to one, he said.

    “They did not say they would beat us if we refused to leave. They just used the loudspeaker to say that we were breaking the law by petitioning. That’s ridiculous. It’s the banks that are breaking the law.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The banks, which include the Yuzhou Xinminsheng Village Bank and the Shangcai Huimin Country Bank, are under investigation by the authorities for illegal fundraising, the state-run Global Times reported.

    The protesters were eventually bused to various sites where Zhang said they were forced to sign a letter guaranteeing they would not gather anymore. Late Sunday, Henan banking regulators posted a short notice on their website saying that authorities are speeding up the verification of customer funds in four of the banks and the formulation of a plan to resolve the situation to protect the rights and interests of the public.

    More than 1,000 depositors from across the country had planned to gather in Zhengzhou last month to try to withdraw their money but they were unable to when their COVID-19 health codes, which determine if one can travel, switched to a “no travel” status.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/10/2022 – 19:00

  • Biden's Mental Decay
    Biden’s Mental Decay

    Authored by Techno Fog via The Reactionary,

    The President of the sole global superpower is confounded by a teleprompter. The Commander in Chief of the most powerful military in the world, with 700+ military spanning the globe and nearly 4,000 nuclear warheads, can barely make it through public appearances.  

    He wouldn’t pass a driver’s test, unable to distinguish between a pedestrian or a stop sign. But he has his finger on the nuclear trigger.

    Just this week he was defeated (yet again) by text on a screen. “End of quote. Repeat the line.” Watch this:

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    Then there was the cover-up. One can imagine the emergency meeting of White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, et al. They’re already dealing with record inflation, a tanking stock market, and the economy on a verge of a recession. What do they say to that? They claim the US is “stronger economically than we have been in history,”

    And now they’re left with this mess to clean up. They’re probably thankful, in a way. Another Biden public screw-up is a welcome relief compared to addressing formula shortages. They’ve handled his gaffes before. To the rescue was Assistant White House Press Secretary Emilie Simons to cover for her boss. She falsified Biden’s statement, begging the public to ignore the words from Biden’s mouth.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The official White House website has doubled-down on the denial of reality, making up words that were never said to protect a President who may not be able to remember what he had for breakfast.

    This isn’t Biden’s first public embarrassment, and it certainly won’t be his last. Those who have been paying close attention know they’re a regular occurrence. There will be another one in a few days. His public appearances are, for the most part, heavily scripted and before a friendly audience. Say a few words and talk to some folks before making an exit. And President Biden isn’t up to the challenge, vanquished by the easiest parts of his presidency.

    There was the time he tried to “shake thin air” after a speech and walked off stage bewildered, unsure of where to go.

    Or, recall his fumbled introduction of Judge Ketanji Jackson. “America is a nation that can be defined in a single word: ASUFUTIMAEHAEHUTBW.”

    And when he was rescued from questions on foreign policy by the Easter Bunny.

    And when Biden checked his notes to answer a question about Russia in a staged appearance at a general store.

    Apparently he goes nowhere without the paper crutch prepared by his handlers. Issues relating to Russia – from the war in Ukraine to the expansion of NATO, etc. – are certainly briefed to the President on a daily basis. And his memory is so bad, his intellect is so defeated, that he cannot recall his constant briefing.

    If you need further proof of his mental state, there’s this “cheat sheet,” where he is instructed on how and when to enter the room and leave the room.

    “YOU enter the Roosevelt room…”

    “YOU take your seat.”

    “YOU depart.”

    The troubling thing is that most of the presidency is off-script.

    How do you address inflation and families being priced-out of groceries when you struggle through a press conference?

    How do you formulate a strategy about China or Russia when you rely on a cheat sheet for a 5-minute meeting?

    Make no mistake, Biden’s senility is one of the biggest stories in the world. The media’s silence on this matter is telling. Never before has the press tried to so hard to ignore so big a story (I venture this is bigger than Hunter’s laptop), as they’re afraid of what a correct assessment of Biden’s facilities might reveal. Ask whether Dementia-in-Chief is a threat to national security or economic recovery.

    Also revealing is the media’s attempts to explain-away or otherwise repackage Biden’s mental and physical deficiencies. Peter Baker, writing for The New York Times, says Biden’s “age has increasingly become an uncomfortable issue for him, his team and his party.” Of course, Biden’s age isn’t the issue per se – it’s Biden’s mind. “Age” is just The New York Times’ way of being polite, of serving the Biden Administration.

    To make matters worse, there was the unbelievable “uniform” reporting of Biden’s competence by those interviewed by Baker:

    In interviews, some sanctioned by the White House and some not, more than a dozen current and former senior officials and advisers uniformly reported that Mr. Biden remained intellectually engaged, asking smart questions at meetings, grilling aides on points of dispute, calling them late at night, picking out that weak point on Page 14 of a memo and rewriting speeches like his abortion remarks on Friday right up until the last minute.

    Those comments by Biden’s closest advisors and Democrat officials are certainly contrasted by how they treat Biden, and Baker unfortunately makes no effort to push-back on that point. As Baker concedes: “He stays out of public view at night and has taken part in fewer than half as many news conferences or interviews as recent predecessors.”

    “Out of public view at night.” Could it be because Biden struggles with sundowning, which causes confusion, aggression, anxiety, and depression? Baker doesn’t ask.

    But – if you have any concerns about Biden’s health or acuity – don’t worry. The New York Times has found experts that “put Mr. Biden in a category of ‘super-agers’ who remain unusually fit as they advance in years.”

    Sadly, Baker doesn’t challenge that conclusion either. And what an easy challenge it would have been.

    There’s the old cliché that journalists must speak truth to power. As Chomsky once observed, speaking truth to power is pointless because the powerful already know the truth. Better to speak truth to the powerless. As to Biden’s age-related failures – dare I say dementia – the press has chosen to avoid speaking the truth to the power and the powerless.

    How much it matters is another story. This is likely a one-term president and the public is seeing Biden’s real-time deterioration for themselves.

    But – if the press is willing to cover-up Biden’s dementia – then what other stories are they euthanizing?

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/10/2022 – 18:30

  • "Your Gas Guzzler Kills" – Radical Climate Group Deflates Bay Area SUV Tires
    “Your Gas Guzzler Kills” – Radical Climate Group Deflates Bay Area SUV Tires

    Radical environmentalists in the San Francisco Bay Area are making life painful for hardworking people who drive SUVs by deflating their tires in the name of ‘climate change.’ 

    “ATTENTION – Your gas guzzler kills. We have deflated one or more of your tires. You’ll be angry, but don’t take it personally. It’s not you, it’s your car,” UK-based group “Tyre Extinguishers” wrote in leaflets left behind on targeted vehicle windshields. 

    “We did this because driving around urban areas in your massive vehicle has huge consequences for others … and “taking actions into our own hands because our governments and politicians will not,” the leaflet continued. 

    SFGate said Vacaville, a town in Solano County, about 35 miles from Sacramento and 55 miles from San Francisco, had a string of residents report the group recently targeted their SUVs. 

    “As far as we know, this is the first action in the Bay Area – the first of many!” Marion Walker, a spokesperson for Tyre Extinguishers, told SFGate via an email statement. 

    Vacaville Police Department said they got a call from at least one SUV owner and observed reports on social media. 

    Tyre Extinguishers’ website lays out how “How To Spot An SUV” and “How To Deflate An SUV Tyre,” along with PDF leaflets that can easily be printed. 

    The group’s grassroots efforts have targeted SUVs in other metro areas, including New York City, Chicago, and Scranton, Pennsylvania. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Climate extremists don’t realize that lowering a vehicle’s tire pressure can put a driver and its occupants at serious risk of a road accident that could cause injury or death. Low tire pressure reduces grip and responsiveness of the vehicle and may result in loss of control. 

    Also, these so-called climate change warriors are targeting suburbs, towns, and cities to attack the “privileged few that flaunt their wealth” with SUVs. It sounds like the group of lawbreakers is trying to spark more class warfare and division in a country that is already heavily polarized. 

    The question remains how these mischievous ‘greenies’ are getting around town, considering some areas they’ve already targeted are inaccessible by public transportation or too far to bike or walk. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/10/2022 – 18:00

  • Now An Outbreak Of The Marburg Virus Has Begun
    Now An Outbreak Of The Marburg Virus Has Begun

    Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

    Why are so many unusual outbreaks of disease suddenly happening all over the planet?  We were already dealing with a seemingly endless global pandemic coming into 2022, and so far this year a bird flu pandemic has resulted in the deaths of tens of millions of our chickens and turkeys, the worst monkeypox outbreak in history has spread like wildfire in the western world, and now it is being reported that there is an outbreak of the Marburg Virus in Africa.  We have already lost our opportunity to contain monkeypox, and that is really bad news.  But if authorities are not able to successfully contain this new Marburg outbreak, we could potentially be facing a scenario that is downright apocalyptic.

    The new outbreak of the Marburg Virus is happening in Ghana.  The two victims that have died so far did not know each other, and officials believe that this is evidence that “the disease is spreading more widely”

    Two people are believed to have died from the extremely deadly Marburg virus in Ghana as officials gear up for a potential outbreak.

    The patients, from the country’s southern Ashanti region, were not known to each other, suggesting the disease is spreading more widely.

    Initial tests came back positive for the virus and the samples are being reanalysed by the World Health Organization (WHO).

    Global health authorities have always warned that the Marburg virus is a good candidate for a horrifying global pandemic because it can have a very long incubation period.  The following information comes from the World Health Organization

    The incubation period (interval from infection to onset of symptoms) varies from 2 to 21 days.

    Illness caused by Marburg virus begins abruptly, with high fever, severe headache and severe malaise. Muscle aches and pains are a common feature. Severe watery diarrhoea, abdominal pain and cramping, nausea and vomiting can begin on the third day. Diarrhoea can persist for a week. The appearance of patients at this phase has been described as showing “ghost-like” drawn features, deep-set eyes, expressionless faces, and extreme lethargy.

    All of that sounds terrible, but the next stage of the disease is truly nightmarish

    Many patients develop severe haemorrhagic manifestations between 5 and 7 days, and fatal cases usually have some form of bleeding, often from multiple areas. Fresh blood in vomitus and faeces is often accompanied by bleeding from the nose, gums, and vagina. Spontaneous bleeding at venepuncture sites (where intravenous access is obtained to give fluids or obtain blood samples) can be particularly troublesome. During the severe phase of illness, patients have sustained high fevers. Involvement of the central nervous system can result in confusion, irritability, and aggression. Orchitis (inflammation of one or both testicles) has been reported occasionally in the late phase of disease (15 days).

    In fatal cases, death occurs most often between 8 and 9 days after symptom onset, usually preceded by severe blood loss and shock.

    The largest previous outbreak of the disease was in 2005.

    During that outbreak, 88 percent of the victims died…

    The largest outbreak to date was in Angola in 2005, when 374 caught the virus and 329 died – a fatality rate of 88 percent.

    A disease that has a death rate of way less than one percent ended up paralyzing much of the planet for months on end.

    So what do you think will happen if the Marburg Virus becomes a true global pandemic?

    Needless to say, the panic would be off the charts, and there is no cure and no vaccine

    The Marburg virus is a top concern for public health officials who are worried about the next pandemic. It has the potential to cause serious public health emergencies but there are currently no vaccines or antiviral treatments approved to treat the virus.

    Meanwhile, the number of monkeypox cases continues to rise at an exponential rate.

    When I wrote about monkeypox yesterday, there were 7,534 global cases.  Unfortunately, Friday was the worst day for this outbreak so far by a very wide margin, and now there are 9,109 global cases.

    I had been hoping that this outbreak would fade after the initial spike of cases, but instead it seems to be rapidly picking up momentum.

    Here in the United States, it has already spread to 39 different states and the total number of cases has now risen to 790.

    If the number of cases continues to double at a very fast pace, it won’t be too long before we have a major national crisis on our hands.

    Let us hope that doesn’t happen, because this is a disease that you definitely do not want to get.

    This highly mutated version of monkeypox causes extremely intense pain In fact, one victim that was interview by NBC News said that it was “the worst pain in my life”.

    Since monkeypox causes very ugly sores on the skin, many have suggested that this sounds eerily similar to a future scenario that I described in my books.

    But we don’t know if monkeypox will become a true global pandemic yet.  We will just have to wait and see what happens.

    Of course COVID has been a global pandemic for a long time, and now it is being reported that a new subvariant that is becoming dominant in the western world is “the worst so far”

    The latest subvariant of the novel coronavirus to become dominant in Europe, the United States, and other places is also, in many ways, the worst so far.

    The BA.5 subvariant of the basic Omicron variant appears to be more contagious than any previous form of the virus. It’s apparently better at dodging our antibodies, too—meaning it might be more likely to cause breakthrough and repeat infections.

    Despite everything that they have tried, authorities have failed to stop this pandemic.  Our planet has been hit by wave after wave, and now hospitalizations in the U.S. are spiking once again

    Eighteen states reported more cases in the week of June 30-July 7 than in the week before, according to a USA TODAY analysis of Johns Hopkins University data.

    That has also led to a rise in hospitalizations, with hospitals in 40 states reporting more COVID-19 patients than a week earlier. Thirty-eight states had more patients in intensive care beds, and 17 states reported more deaths than a week earlier.

    Personally, I am far, far more concerned about monkeypox.

    If the number of monkeypox cases continues to explode like it has been, it won’t be too long before there is widespread panic among the general public.

    And if the Marburg Virus starts getting loose in the western world we will be facing a scenario that is absolutely unthinkable.

    So hopefully authorities in Africa are on top of this, because the death toll from a full-blown global pandemic would be off the charts.

    *  *  *

    It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/10/2022 – 17:30

  • Trump Calls Elon Musk "Another Bullshit Artist"
    Trump Calls Elon Musk “Another Bullshit Artist”

    Former President Donald Trump called Tesla CEO Elon Musk “another bullshit artist” after the richest man in the world announced he was pulling out of a deal to buy Twitter.

    “One of our highest priorities under a Republican Congress will be to stop left-wing censorship and to restore free speech in America,” Trump said during a “Save America’ campaign-style rally on Saturday. “And go out, by the way while I’m here and sign up now, for Truth Social. It’s hot as a pistol and you see that I called that one, right? Elon. Elon”

    “Elon is not going to buy Twitter. Where did you hear that before? From me,” Trump continued.

    “He’s got himself a mess.”

    “You know, he said the other day, ‘I’ve never voted for a Republican.’ I said I didn’t know that. He told me he voted for me. So he’s another bullshit artist but he’s not going to be buying it. Although he might later. Who the hell knows what’s going to happen? He’s got a pretty rotten contract. I looked at his contract, not a good contract. Sign up for Truth. We love Truth.”

    Watch:

     

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/10/2022 – 17:00

  • Tyranny On Autopilot: LA County Set To Resume Mask Mandate
    Tyranny On Autopilot: LA County Set To Resume Mask Mandate

    Authored by Adam Dick via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

    People in the city and county of Los Angeles, California have suffered under some the more extreme coronavirus crackdown measures in America.

    And, one of those authoritarian measures — the county’s mask mandate — may be about to make a comeback under county policy to automatically reimpose the mandate if the coronavirus “community transmission” in the county is determined to have risen to what the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) considers “high” and stay at that level for two weeks.

    Los Angeles County Department of Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer is advising that the mask mandate will return before the end of this month if the current trend of increasing “cases” continues.

    Insanity upon insanity. Tyranny on autopilot.

    The coronavirus circulating today is different than what was circulating when Los Angeles County previously mandated mask wearing. Yet, the county has put the reimposing of the same supposedly responsive policy on autopilot. Further, masks, while causing known health detriments, have not been shown to provide net protection against the spread of any coronavirus.

    The county might as well mandate each person in the county carry a rabbit’s foot in his pocket to ward off infection. Most importantly, mask mandates impinge on liberty and exceed proper governmental bounds.

    Nonetheless, if a number on the county’s CDC-inspired chart crosses an arbitrary level and stays there or higher for two weeks, the county is set to reimpose a draconian mask mandate.

    A previous Los Angeles County government imposed mask mandate ended in March when “community transmission” dropped below the “high” level. Fortunately for people in the county, Los Angeles County Sheriff Alex Villanueva had declared in July of last year that the county sheriff’s department would decline to enforce the mandate.

    Of course, you can count on politicians on the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors to be displeased by such refusal to enforce the mandate. For reasons surely including his refusal to enforce the county government’s previous mask mandate, Villanueva now finds himself in jeopardy of being fired by county board members.

    Next week, the county board is considering placing on the same November election ballot on which Villanueva is a candidate for reelection a measure designed to give the county board the means to remove an elected county sheriff from office.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/10/2022 – 16:30

  • The Façade Of California's Economy Is About To Crumble
    The Façade Of California’s Economy Is About To Crumble

    Statistical data and economic projections can be incredibly misleading without taking context into account.   This fact is often exploited by governments around the world, and there is probably no better example than the state of California. 

    There is an old mantra when it comes to warfare, which is to never buy into your own propaganda.  That is to say, never buy into the lie that you are “winning” if you are actually losing.  The economic and political news coming out of California is consistently dismal these days, and yet state politicians and bureaucrats continuously insist that things have never been better.  Furthermore, they really know how to spin their data.  

    For example, CA has been losing more people to relocation in the past few years than at any time in the past century.  Try to research this subject matter and you will be buried in an avalanche of pro-Cal fluff pieces from the local media designed to obscure the problem.  State numbers indicate a loss of 117,000 people in 2021 alone (on top of huge losses in 2019 and 2020), but this number does not mention context.  Over 280,000 people LEFT the state in 2021 for a number of reasons, though covid lockdowns and vax mandates seem to be high on the list.  But the government then adds new residents to the mix to diminish the losses.

    Who are these new people moving into CA?  Mostly illegal immigrants according to border patrol numbers.  Illegal border crossing in California in 2021 hit the highest levels since the height of the Obama era in 2008.  Between 2.3 million and 2.6 million illegals reside in the state today, and that’s one quarter of the estimated 11 million illegals that live in the entire US.  In other words, CA lost 280,000 legal citizens last years and is replacing many of them with people who are not citizens at all, then they claim the population decline is “not that bad.”  

    This process slowed down slightly during the covid pandemic, but only because of the strict lockdown rules enacted on the southern border.  Now that Joe Biden has lifted those rules and even encouraged illegal immigration through promises of potential citizenship, the floodgates have reopened and California is a major pipeline.

    The types of people leaving CA in droves are a mix of middle income families and business owners.  Beyond the lockdown madness of the past couple of years, there is also the issue of  one of the highest tax rates in the US combined with some the most strict permit, employment and property regulations in the country.  California’s tax burden is third highest in the nation under New York and Hawaii, and it is rated one of the most expensive states to start a business.  These fiscal conditions are brutal on small business owners, who employ around 48% of California’s workforce.    

    The state is rated almost every year as the single worst place in the US to do business by various surveys, and for good reason.

    The biggest economic problem in the state right now is perhaps not their propensity for draconian restrictions or taxation, but the issue of property prices and living costs.  In 2021 the median home price in CA rose to $800,000, that’s almost double the US average of $430,000.  The average rental cost is $2500 per month, while the median rent in the US is $1,300.  The cost of living in CA (and many blue states) is simply prohibitive.

    Another way the state government tries to obscure their economic failings is by citing GDP stats, which if taken out of context makes the state seem like the most successful in the nation.  An official GDP of $3.4 trillion is quite the distraction, but once we take into account the fact that government spending is calculated as a part of GDP, it’s far less impressive.  

    California is a massive spender, with over $516 billion in state and local expenditures in 2019 according to the US Census Bureau.  A large portion of this spending is considered part of CA’s GDP.  A business powerhouse?  Not so much.  A government spending and taxation powerhouse?  Absolutely.  

    California has the fifth largest standing debt of any state in the US, with over $362 billion in total liabilities including unfunded liabilities.  Now, with stagflation hitting hard and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates there is talk of another Great Recession, and voices within CA are starting to get worried.  They know that the state is highly dependent on two primary industries:  Agriculture and government spending.  With drought causing severe water shortages and debt getting more expensive to maintain, a recession at this time could pull the rug out from under the the state economy and unmask the facade.  

    “Experts” in the state are calling for even MORE government spending to avoid a repeat of the recession crisis of 2008/2009, which means attempting to artificially drive up GDP by borrowing more money from the Federal Government and the Federal Reserve.  In other words, Gavin Newsom and the Democrats in charge are anxious to fight inflation with more inflation.  

    This is a disaster waiting to happen.  CA is not the only state with these problems, but it is one of the largest and most unstable.  The hundreds of thousands of people relocating every year see the writing on the wall, and are smart to get out while they can.  After decades of consistent government mismanagement the golden goose is about to expire.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/10/2022 – 16:00

  • Morgan Stanley: Soaring Dollar Will Crush Earnings Growth And Snuff The Rally In Stocks
    Morgan Stanley: Soaring Dollar Will Crush Earnings Growth And Snuff The Rally In Stocks

    By Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley chief US equity strategist

    One of the more popular views over the past decade has been the eventual demise of the US dollar. After all, with the Fed printing so many dollars since the global financial crisis and then doubling down after the Covid pandemic hit two years ago, this idea has merit. Indeed, the meteoric rise in cryptocurrencies was essentially a bet on the entire fiat currency world coming unglued. However, after the GFC, these printed dollars never made it into the real economy as they were simply used to patch up broken balance sheets from the housing bust. Therefore, M2 growth never got “out of hand”, exceeding 10% on a year-on-year basis only briefly in 2009 when QE first began and then again in 2012 when QE3 was started to help to offset the sovereign debt crisis. In fact, during the entire period after the Fed first embarked on QE in November 2008 through the end of the cycle in March 2020, M2 growth averaged just 6% – right in line with the long-term trend of M2 and nominal GDP growth. As a result, the US dollar maintained its reserve currency status and rose almost 40% during that decade.

    However, as we pointed out back in April 2020, the stimulus provided during Covid was very different. At the time, we suggested that the coordinated fiscal and monetary policy was unprecedented and akin to “helicopter” money as described by Milton Friedman in his seminal paper back in 1969 and referenced by Ben Bernanke in 2002 as a tool the Fed could always use to avoid a deflationary trap. In other words, the seeds of today’s inflation were sown in those early months right after the pandemic with the first dose of helicopter money. That first drop was arguably necessary to prevent a deflationary bust. But, handing out free money is very popular with the people, so there were two more doses – one by each party – administered in January and March 2021 after we had an effective vaccine to help to reopen much of the economy. The result is that M2 growth exploded and since February 2020 has averaged 17%, or 3x the long-term trend – a truly unprecedented outcome that left us with much more inflation than was desired. Consequently, the US dollar fell sharply from March 2020 to March 2021 but, once M2 growth peaked, so did the dollar’s decline. Now, with the Fed reversing course so quickly and the checks having stopped long ago, M2 growth has fallen all the way back to its long-term trend of just 6%. Given the projected path for rate hikes and quantitative tightening, M2 growth is likely to fall even further and the dollar is unlikely to show any signs of demise until the Fed pivots, which seems unlikely any time soon, especially after Friday’s strong jobs report.

    So why does this matter so much for stocks? Based on the extreme rally so far this year, the DXY is now up 16% year on year. This is about as extreme as it gets historically speaking and, unfortunately, it typically coincides with major financial stress in markets, a recession, or both.

    Ultimately, the Fed wants a meaningful economic slowdown to curtail inflation and a stronger dollar is part of that cocktail. From the standpoint of stocks, the stronger dollar is going to be a massive headwind to earnings for many large multinationals.  This could not be coming at a worse time as companies are already struggling with margin pressure from cost inflation, higher/unwanted inventories, and slower demand.

    The simple math on S&P 500 earnings from currency is that for every percentage point increase on a year-on-year basis it’s approximately a 0.5x hit to EPS growth. At today’s 16% year-on-year level, that translates into an 8% headwind for S&P 500 EPS growth, all else equal.

    Of course, things can change quickly, but it doesn’t seem likely until M2 growth stops slowing, which will require a Fed pivot. The main point for equity investors is that this dollar strength is just another reason to think earnings revisions are coming down over the next few earnings seasons, which starts next week. Therefore, the recent rally in stocks is likely to fizzle out before too long.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/10/2022 – 15:30

  • Housing Crisis Worsens As Affordability Reaches Record Low
    Housing Crisis Worsens As Affordability Reaches Record Low

    Just as we warned back in March, housing affordability, as measured by Goldman Sachs, has deteriorated to its worst level on record.

    The recent decline in affordability has been driven largely by higher mortgage rates. This stands in contrast with last year, when higher home prices were the main driver…

    As mortgage rates (and home prices) have soared, rental affordability has held up better than mortgage affordability

    The housing market has cooled significantly in recent weeks as buyers have stepped back from the market. Sales of previously owned homes slid in May for the fourth straight month.

    “I don’t know that we’ll ever see affordability again like we saw in the last year or two,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American Financial Corp.

    Even The Dallas Fed recently admitted that the US housing market is suffering “abnormal market behavior” for the first time since the boom of the early 2000s. They add to what Goldman says, citing clear reasons for concern in certain economic indicators – the price-to-rent ratio, in particular, and the price-to-income ratio – which show signs that house prices appear increasingly out of step with fundamentals.

    While The Dallas Fed notes that historically low interest rates are a factor, they point out that rates do not fully explain housing market developments.

    Other drivers have played a role, including pandemic-related U.S. fiscal stimulus programs and COVID-19-related supply-chain disruptions and associated policy responses.

    The resulting fundamental-driven higher house prices may have fueled a fear-of-missing-out wave of exuberance involving new investors and more aggressive speculation among existing investors.

    Last week saw mortgage rates fall significantly but “rates are still significantly higher than they were a year ago, which is why applications for home purchases and refinances remain depressed,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of Economic and Industry Forecasting.

    “Purchase activity is hamstrung by ongoing affordability challenges and low inventory, and homeowners still have reduced incentive to apply for a refinance.”

    Speaking to Fox Business, Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather pointed out that higher interest rates are pushing buyers away from the housing market, and sellers are unwilling to drop prices at present. But things could change once the economy begins to weaken.

    “Rate movement depends on Federal Reserve policy and how the market anticipates that, so it makes forecasting incredibly difficult,” said Lien Kiefer, an economist at Freddie Mac.

    “Given all the volatility in the market, it’s hard to say how rates will behave week to week. But the risks are kind of balanced – I don’t think they’ll move dramatically higher or lower.”

    That means borrowers could see mortgage rates hover around 5% well into 2023.

    Finally, Goldman expects affordability will linger at historically challenging levels through year-end.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/10/2022 – 15:00

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